PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part Two

We are posting three bowl previews this year; this is the second preview.  We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and the results of our 100 computer simulations for each game.

 

Today, we cover the bowls from Boxing Day through New Year’s Day.  Next week, we will preview the bowls from January 2 to the Championship Game. 

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl

Detroit, MI

8:30 PM EST on ESPN

Toledo (8-4)  vs. Florida Internationl (6-6)

Vegas: Toledo by 1

Totals: 57

PiRate: Toledo by 3.3

Mean: Toledo by 2.8

Bias: Toledo by 16.8

100 Sims: Toledo 67  Florida International 33

Avg. Sim Score: Toledo 33.6  Florida International 25.7

Outlier A: Toledo 49  Florida International 19

Outlier B: Florida International 37  Toledo 24

 

Monday, December 27

Independence Bowl

Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

Air Force (8-4)  vs.  Georgia Tech (6-6)

Vegas: Air Force by 2 ½  

Totals: 56

PiRate: Georgia Tech by 1.7

Mean: Air Force by 5.2

Bias: Air Force by 5.9

100 Sims: Air Force 55  Georgia Tech 45

Avg. Sim Score: Air Force 29.2  Georgia Tech 26.9

Outlier A: Air Force 41  Georgia Tech 23

Outlier B: Georgia Tech 34  A Force 23

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl

Orlando, FL

6:30 PM EST on ESPN

West Virginia (9-3)  vs. North Carolina State (8-4)

Vegas: West Virginia by 2 ½

Totals: 49

PiRate: West Virginia by 6.8

Mean: West Virginia by 2.3

Bias: West Virginia by 3.0

100 Sims: West Virginia 53  North Carolina State 47 (6 games decided by OT)

Avg. Sim Score: West Virginia 25.8  North Carolina State 25.2

Outlier A: West Virginia 27  North Carolina State 10

Outlier B: North Carolina State 28  West Virginia 12

 

Insight Bowl

Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM EST

Missouri (10-2)  vs.  Iowa (7-5)

Vegas: Missouri by 2 ½

Totals: 46 ½

PiRate: Even

Mean: Missouri by 4.1

Bias: Missouri by 12.6

100 Sims: Missouri 58  Iowa 42

Avg. Sim Score: Missouri 25.6  Iowa 22.3

Outlier A: Missouri 31  Iowa 13

Outlier B: Iowa 21  Missouri 7

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl

Washington, D.C.

2:30 PM on EST

Maryland (8-4)  vs. East Carolina (6-6)

Vegas: Maryland by 7 ½

Totals: 68 ½

PiRate: Maryland by 18.4

Mean: Maryland by 11.2

Bias: Maryland by 13.8

100 Sims: East Carolina 51  Maryland 49

Avg. Sim Score: Maryland 34.4  East Carolina 34.1

Outlier A: East Carolina 47  Maryland 31

Outlier B: Maryland 42  East Carolina 20

 

Texas Bowl

Houston, TX

6:00 PM EST on ESPN

Baylor (7-5)  vs. Illinois (6-6)

Vegas: Baylor by 1

Totals: 62 ½

PiRate: Baylor by 2.4

Mean: Illinois by 1.6

Bias: Baylor by 6.9

100 Sims: Illinois 54  Baylor 46

Avg. Sim Score: Illinois 32.1  Baylor 28.6

Outlier A: Illinois 34  Baylor 17

Outlier B: Baylor 28  Illinois 18

 

Alamo Bowl

San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM EST on ESPN

Oklahoma State (10-2)  vs. Arizona (7-5)

Vegas: Oklahoma State by 5 ½

Totals: 66

PiRate: Oklahoma State by 1.1

Mean: Oklahoma State by 6.1

Bias: Oklahoma State by 9.6

100 Sims: Oklahoma State 61  Arizona 39

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma State 38.0  Arizona 29.1

Outlier A: Oklahoma State 51  Arizona 27

Outlier B: Arizona 34  Oklahoma State 28 (and one other 6-point spread)

 

Thursday, December 30

Armed Forces Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U (7-6)  vs. Army (6-6)

Vegas: S M U by 7

Totals: 52

PiRate: S M U by 7.7

Mean: S M U by 3.2

Bias: S M U by 10.6

100 Sims: S M U 64  Army 36

Avg. Sim Score: S M U 28.2  Army 20.6

Outlier A: S M U 34  Army 10

Outlier B: Army 24  S M U 16

 

Pinstripe Bowl

New York, NY

3:20 PM EST

Syracuse (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

Vegas: Pick’em

Totals: 47 ½

PiRate: Syracuse by 1.5

Mean: Kansas State by 4.6

Bias: Syracuse by 2.3

100 Sims: Syracuse 53  Kansas State 47

Avg. Sim Score: Syracuse 20.1  Kansas State 18.6

Outlier A: Syracuse 24  Kansas State 7

Outlier B: Kansas State 17  Syracuse 3

 

Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

6:30 PM EST

Tennessee (6-6)  vs. North Carolina (7-5)

Vegas: North Carolina by 1 ½  

Totals: 50 ½

PiRate: North Carolina by 6.8

Mean: North Carolina by 1.5

Bias: Tennessee by 6.6

100 Sims: Tennessee 50  North Carolina 50

Avg. Sim Score: Tennessee 24.5  North Carolina 23.9

Outlier A: Tennessee 30  North Carolina 14

Outlier B: North Carolina 27  Tennessee 12

 

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

10:00 PM EST

Nebraska (10-3)  vs. Washington (6-6)

Vegas: Nebraska by 14

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Nebraska by 11.8

Mean: Nebraska by 11.5

Bias: Nebraska by 5.3

100 Sims: Nebraska 57  Washington 43

Avg. Sim Score: Nebraska 26.1  Washington 19.3

Outlier A: Nebraska 27  Washington 6

Outlier B: Washington 23  Nebraska 14

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl

Charlotte, NC

12:00 Noon EST

South Florida (7-5)  vs. Clemson (6-6)

Vegas: Clemson by 5 ½

Totals: 40 ½

PiRate: Clemson by 5.1

Mean: Clemson by 3.7

Bias: South Florida by 6.1

100 Sims: South Florida 58  Clemson 42

Avg. Sim Score: South Florida 25.1  Clemson 19.2

Outlier A: South Florida 31  Clemson 12

Outlier B: Clemson 28  South Florida 16

 

Sun Bowl

El Paso, TX

2:00 PM EST on CBS

Notre Dame (7-5)  vs. Miami (Fl) (7-5)

Vegas: Miami by 3

Totals: 47

PiRate: Miami by 6.3

Mean: Notre Dame by 1.2

Bias: Miami by 6.0

100 Sims: Notre Dame 52  Miami 48

Avg. Sim Score: Notre Dame 23.4  Miami 23.2

Outlier A: Notre Dame 30  Miami 14

Outlier B: Miami 35  Notre Dame 14

 

Liberty Bowl

Memphis, TN

3:30 PM EST on ESPN

Central Florida (10-3)  vs. Georgia (6-6)

Vegas: Georgia by 6 ½

Totals: 55 ½

PiRate: Georgia by 12.8

Mean: Georgia by 5.3

Bias: Georgia by 11.3

100 Sims: Georgia 72  Central Florida 28

Avg. Sim Score: Georgia 28.6  Central Florida 17.3

Outlier A: Georgia 38  Central Florida 10

Outlier B: Central Florida 24  Georgia 19

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM EST on ESPN

South Carolina (9-4)  vs. Florida State (9-4)

Vegas: South Carolina by 3

Totals: 55

PiRate: Florida State by 0.4

Mean: South Carolina by 0.5

Bias: Florida State by 1.6

100 Sims: Florida State 52  South Carolina 48

Avg. Sim Score: South Carolina 26.7  Florida State 26.6

Outlier A: Florida State 30  South Carolina 16

Outlier B: South Carolina 44  Florida State 17

 

Saturday, January 1

TicketCity Bowl

Dallas, TX

12:00 Noon EST on ESPN-U

Texas Tech (7-5)  vs. Northwestern (7-5)

Vegas: Texas Tech by 10

Totals: 60

PiRate: Texas Tech by 12.5

Mean: Texas Tech by 7.3

Bias: Texas Tech by 9.6

100 Sims: Texas Tech 86  Northwestern 14

Avg. Sim Score: Texas Tech 34.6  Northwestern 21.2

Outlier A: Texas Tech 45  Northwestern 17

Outlier B: Northwestern 30  Texas Tech 24 (3 other by 6)

 

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

1:00 PM EST on ABC

Florida (7-5) vs. Penn State (7-5)

Vegas: Florida by 7 ½  

Totals: 48

PiRate: Florida by 13.2

Mean: Florida by 5.1

Bias: Florida by 5.5

100 Sims: Florida 54  Penn State 46

Avg. Sim Score: Florida 22.6  Penn State 19.8

Outlier A: Florida 28  Penn State 13

Outlier B: Penn State 21  Florida 10

 

Capital One Bowl

Orlando, FL

1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Michigan State (11-1) vs.  Alabama (9-3)

Vegas: Alabama by 10

Totals: 52 ½

PiRate: Alabama by 15.5

Mean: Alabama by 10.4

Bias: Alabama by 3.2

100 Sims: Alabama 59  Michigan State 41

Avg. Sim Score: Alabama 27.6  Michigan State 24.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan State 12

Outlier B: Michigan State 35  Alabama 25

 

Gator Bowl

Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM EST on ESPN2

Mississippi State (8-4)  vs.  Michigan (7-5)

Vegas: Mississippi State by 5 ½

Totals: 61

PiRate: Mississippi State by 10.3

Mean: Mississippi State by 6.3

Bias: Mississippi State by 4.8

100 Sims: Mississippi State 52  Michigan 48

Avg. Sim Score: Mississippi State 33.7  Michigan 30.1

Outlier A: Mississippi State 38  Michigan 20

Outlier B: Michigan 36  Mississippi State 27

 

Rose Bowl

Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM EST on ESPN

T C U (12-0)  vs. Wisconsin (11-1)

Vegas: T C U by 3

Totals: 58 ½

PiRate: T C U by 7.9

Mean: T C U by 5.8

Bias: Wisconsin by 6.6

100 Sims: Wisconsin 54  T C U 46

Avg. Sim Score: Wisconsin 30.4  T C U 28.8

Outlier A: Wisconsin 40  T C U 24

Outlier B: T C U 34  Wisconsin 24

 

Fiesta Bowl

Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM EST

Oklahoma (11-2)  vs. Connecticut (8-4)

Vegas: Oklahoma by 16 1/2

Totals: 55

PiRate: Oklahoma by 19.7

Mean: Oklahoma by 16.2

Bias: Oklahoma by 20.7

100 Sims: Oklahoma 91  Connecticut 9

Avg. Sim Score: Oklahoma 35.3  Connecticut 14.8

Outlier A: Oklahoma 49  Connecticut 7

Outlier B: Connecticut 27  Oklahoma 23

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank	Team	PiRate	Won	Lost
1	T C U	133.1	12	0
2	Oregon	132.5	12	0
3	Stanford	131.8	11	1
4	Auburn	131.0	13	0
5	Boise State	128.8	11	1
6	Ohio State	128.3	11	1
7	Oklahoma	127.7	11	2
8	Alabama	126.2	9	3
9	Wisconsin	125.2	11	1
10	Arkansas	124.7	10	2
11	Virginia Tech	124.2	11	2
12	Florida State	119.8	9	4
13	South Carolina	119.4	9	4
14	Nebraska	118.9	10	3
15	Texas A&M	118.5	9	3
16	L S U	117.7	10	2
17	West Virginia	117.0	9	3
18	Oklahoma State	116.3	10	2
19	Nevada	115.7	12	1
20	Georgia	115.7	6	6
21	Mississippi State	115.6	8	4
22	Florida	115.3	7	5
23	Missouri	115.2	10	2
24t	Arizona	115.2	7	5
24t	Iowa	115.2	7	5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida State	6-2	9-4	119.8
Clemson	4-4	6-6	111.0
North Carolina State	5-3	8-4	110.2
Maryland	5-3	8-4	105.9
Boston College	4-4	7-5	105.0
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9	92.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Virginia Tech	8-0	11-2	124.2
Miami-FL	5-3	7-5	115.2
North Carolina	4-4	7-5	114.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	6-6	108.5
Duke	1-7	3-9	95.9
Virginia	1-7	4-8	95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
West Virginia	5-2	9-3	117.0
Pittsburgh	5-2	7-5	110.7
Connecticut	5-2	8-4	108.0
South Florida	3-4	7-5	106.9
Louisville	3-4	6-6	104.1
Cincinnati	2-5	4-8	100.7
Syracuse	4-3	7-5	100.0
Rutgers	1-6	4-8	89.5

 

 

Big Ten
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Ohio State	7-1	11-1	128.3
Wisconsin	7-1	11-1	125.2
Iowa	4-4	7-5	115.2
Michigan State	7-1	11-1	110.7
Michigan	3-5	7-5	105.3
Penn State	4-4	7-5	104.6
Illinois	4-4	6-6	104.4
Minnesota	2-6	3-9	96.1
Northwestern	3-5	7-5	92.9
Purdue	2-6	4-8	91.1
Indiana	1-7	5-7	90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Nebraska	6-2	10-3	118.9
Missouri	6-2	10-2	115.2
Kansas State	3-5	7-5	100.0
Colorado	2-6	5-7	99.6
Iowa State	3-5	5-7	94.9
Kansas	1-7	3-9	88.2
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oklahoma	6-2	11-2	127.7
Texas A&M	6-2	9-3	118.5
Oklahoma State	6-2	10-2	116.3
Texas	2-6	5-7	106.3
Baylor	4-4	7-5	105.3
Texas Tech	3-5	7-5	104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Central Florida	7-1	10-3	102.9
Southern Mississippi	5-3	8-4	98.4
East Carolina	5-3	6-6	90.0
U A B	3-5	4-8	86.3
Marshall	4-4	5-7	83.8
Memphis	0-8	1-11	70.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Tulsa	6-2	9-3	98.3
Houston	4-4	5-7	96.3
S M U	6-2	7-6	92.7
U T E P	3-5	6-6	86.0
Rice	3-5	4-8	84.5
Tulane	2-6	4-8	74.6

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating
Notre Dame		7-5	108.9
Navy		8-3	102.6
Army		6-5	88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Temple	5-3	8-4	92.6
Miami (O)	7-1	9-4	90.6
Ohio U	6-2	8-4	89.4
Kent St.	4-4	5-7	82.9
Bowling Green	1-7	2-10	75.0
Buffalo	1-7	2-10	70.2
Akron	1-7	1-11	67.7
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Northern Illinois	8-0	10-3	104.1
Toledo	7-1	8-4	89.3
Western Michigan	5-3	6-6	88.8
Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	83.7
Ball State	3-5	4-8	73.9
Eastern Michigan	2-6	2-10	66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
T C U	8-0	12-0	133.1
Utah	7-1	10-2	111.1
Air Force	5-3	8-4	106.8
B Y U	5-3	6-6	104.8
S. D. State	5-3	8-4	104.4
Wyoming	1-7	3-9	88.0
UNLV	2-6	2-11	80.4
Colo. State	2-6	3-9	79.8
New Mexico	1-7	1-11	75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Oregon	9-0	12-0	132.5
Stanford	8-1	11-1	131.8
Arizona	4-5	7-5	115.2
Southern Cal	5-4	8-5	112.0
Arizona St.	4-5	6-6	111.0
Oregon St.	4-5	5-7	109.6
California	3-6	5-7	108.4
Washington	5-4	6-6	107.1
U C L A	2-7	4-8	101.8
Washington State	1-8	2-10	94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
South Carolina	5-3	9-4	119.4
Georgia	3-5	6-6	115.7
Florida	4-4	7-5	115.3
Tennessee	3-5	6-6	106.0
Kentucky	2-6	6-6	105.9
Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10	86.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Auburn	8-0	13-0	131.0
Alabama	5-3	9-3	126.2
Arkansas	6-2	10-2	124.7
L S U	6-2	10-2	117.7
Mississippi State	4-4	8-4	115.6
Ole Miss	1-7	4-8	100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Florida International	6-2	6-6	87.0
Arkansas State	4-4	4-8	83.9
Troy	6-2	7-5	85.8
Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	82.8
North Texas	3-5	3-9	79.7
Louisiana-Monroe	4-4	5-7	78.1
U. of Louisiana	3-5	3-9	77.6
Western Kentucky	2-6	2-10	75.1
Florida Atlantic	3-5	4-8	73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating
Boise State	7-1	11-1	128.8
Nevada	7-1	12-1	115.9
Hawaii	7-1	10-3	108.9
Fresno State	5-3	8-4	98.2
Louisiana Tech	4-4	5-7	93.0
Idaho	3-5	6-7	88.1
Utah State	2-6	4-8	88.0
San Jose State	0-8	1-12	78.5
New Mexico State	1-7	2-10	71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Score
Navy	Army (Philadelphia)	14.4	31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Saturday, December 11
Favorite	Underdog	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army  (Philadelphia)	31-23	27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

PiRate Ratings/Final Regular Season Top 25/Bowl Schedule/NCAA Playoffs

PiRate Rating Picks from this past weekend:

Winners: 8-4  66.7%  Season:   490-173 73.9%

Vs. Spread: 7-4-0 63.6%  Season: 109-132-3 45.2%

PiRate Top 25-Final Regular Season

No.	Team	Won	Lost	PiRate
1	Southern Cal	10	2	127
2	Oklahoma	11	2	126
3	Florida	9	3	126
4	Ohio State	11	1	123
5	Virginia Tech	11	2	122
6	West Virginia	10	2	122
7	L S U	11	2	120
8	Missouri	11	2	120
9	Kansas	11	1	120
10	Georgia	10	2	118
11	Arkansas	8	4	118
12	Oregon State	8	4	117
13	South Florida	9	3	117
14	Clemson	9	3	116
15	Cincinnati	9	3	115
16	Arizona State	10	2	114
17	Boise State	10	2	114
18	Tennessee	9	4	114
19	Utah	8	4	113
20	Oregon	8	4	113
21	U C L A	6	6	113
22	Illinois	9	3	112
23	Wisconsin	9	3	112
24	Brigham Young	10	2	112
25	Texas	9	3	112

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Clemson	5	3		9	3		410	220	116
Wake Forest	5	3		8	4		338	279	111
Boston College	6	2		10	3		372	264	110
Maryland	3	5		6	6		299	259	110
Florida State	4	4		7	5		275	263	106
North Carolina St.	3	5		5	7		249	339	94
Coastal Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Virginia Tech	7	1		11	2		381	201	122
Virginia	6	2		9	3		289	222	109
Georgia Tech	4	4		7	5		313	231	104
Miami (FL)	2	6		5	7		247	312	98
North Carolina	3	5		4	8		254	294	97
Duke	0	8		1	11		215	398	86

Big East Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
West Virginia	5	2		10	2		467	207	122
South Florida	4	3		9	3		430	248	117
Cincinnati	4	3		9	3		441	223	115
Rutgers	3	4		7	5		374	262	107
Connecticut	5	2		9	3		334	223	105
Louisville	3	4		6	6		422	377	105
Pittsburgh	3	4		5	7		274	291	105
Syracuse	1	6		2	10		197	418	87

Big 10 Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Ohio State	7	1		11	1		384	128	123
Illinois	6	2		9	3		345	234	112
Wisconsin	5	3		9	3		366	280	112
Penn State	4	4		8	4		365	211	111
Michigan St.	3	5		7	5		409	322	110
Michigan	6	2		8	4		313	243	108
Purdue	3	5		7	5		395	297	102
Indiana	3	5		7	5		389	321	99
Iowa	4	4		6	6		222	225	95
Northwestern	3	5		6	6		310	372	93
Minnesota	0	8		1	11		315	440	93

Big 12 Conference
North Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Missouri	7	1		11	2		522	319	120
Kansas	7	1		11	1		532	192	120
Colorado	4	4		6	6		331	353	101
Kansas St.	3	5		5	7		422	370	100
Iowa St.	2	6		3	9		218	381	95
Nebraska	2	6		5	7		401	455	95
South Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Oklahoma	6	2		11	2		564	236	126
Texas	5	3		9	3		432	295	112
Texas Tech	4	4		8	4		501	309	109
Texas A&M	4	4		7	5		346	313	108
Oklahoma St.	4	4		6	6		401	351	105
Baylor	0	8		3	9		218	411	83

Conference USA
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Central Fla.	7	1		10	3		499	362	107
East Carolina	6	2		7	5		362	357	97
Southern Miss.	5	3		7	5		330	283	95
Marshall	3	5		3	9		298	411	89
Memphis	6	2		7	5		353	375	87
U A B	1	7		2	10		235	421	78
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Tulsa	6	2		9	4		513	458	100
Houston	6	2		8	4		436	359	97
Tulane	3	5		4	8		293	285	87
Rice	3	5		3	9		374	515	85
S M U	0	8		1	11		340	477	83
U T E P	2	6		4	8		403	445	82

Independents
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Navy	X	X		8	4		479	438	97
Notre Dame	X	X		3	9		197	345	94
Western Ky.	X	X		7	5		398	250	78
Army	X	X		3	9		203	364	77

Mid-American Conference
East Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Bowling Green	4	2		6	2		8	4		385	354	96
Ohio U	3	3		4	4		6	6		366	359	89
Buffalo	4	2		5	3		5	7		291	331	86
Miami (OH)	4	2		5	2		6	7		260	333	85
Temple	3	3		4	4		4	8		197	315	85
Akron	2	4		3	5		4	8		254	350	84
Kent St.	1	5		1	7		3	9		259	350	80
West Division	Division			Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Central Mich.	4	1		6	1		8	5		439	466	97
Western Mich.	2	3		4	4		5	7		323	347	97
Ball St.	4	1		5	2		7	5		379	316	95
Eastern Mich.	3	3		3	4		4	8		290	374	87
Toledo	2	3		3	5		5	7		395	470	85
Northern Illinois	0	5		1	6		2	10		229	370	79

Mountain West Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Utah	5	3		8	4		306	187	113
Brigham Young	8	0		10	2		374	225	112
T C U	4	4		7	5		319	230	108
Air Force	6	2		9	3		353	232	106
New Mexico	5	3		8	4		298	247	98
Colorado St.	2	6		3	9		304	369	93
San Diego St.	3	5		4	8		301	413	90
Wyoming	2	6		5	7		233	311	86
U N L V	1	7		2	10		218	343	85

Pacific 10 Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Southern Cal	7	2		10	2		375	191	127
Oregon St.	6	3		8	4		341	280	117
Arizona St.	7	2		10	2		386	241	114
Oregon	5	4		8	4		440	286	113
U C L A	5	4		6	6		276	272	113
Arizona	4	5		5	7		336	322	112
Washington	2	7		4	9		380	413	107
California	3	6		6	6		338	313	106
Washington St.	3	6		5	7		308	389	104
Stanford	3	6		4	8		235	339	96

Southeastern Conference
East Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Florida	5	3		9	3		517	290	126
Georgia	6	2		10	2		383	252	118
Tennessee	6	2		9	4		434	365	114
Kentucky	3	5		7	5		440	357	110
South Carolina	3	5		6	6		313	282	108
Vanderbilt	2	6		5	7		260	271	104
West Division	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
L S U	6	2		11	2		503	255	120
Arkansas	4	4		8	4		478	307	118
Auburn	5	3		8	4		292	200	111
Mississippi St.	4	4		7	5		269	301	106
Alabama	4	4		6	6		322	262	105
Ole Miss	0	8		3	9		241	342	97

Sunbelt Conference
	Conference			Overall
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Troy	6	1		8	4		408	295	100
Fla. Atlantic	6	1		7	5		361	405	95
La.-Monroe	4	3		6	6		282	332	91
M T S U	4	3		5	7		308	339	86
Arkansas St.	3	4		5	7		291	331	85
La.-Lafayette	3	4		3	9		285	430	83
Fla. Int’l	1	6		1	11		181	469	73
North Texas	1	6		2	10		308	541	72

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Won	Lost		Won	Lost		Pts	Opp	Rating
Boise St.	7	1		10	2		515	238	114
Hawaii	8	0		12	0		552	292	111
Fresno St.	6	2		8	4		387	323	99
Nevada	3	4		5	6		386	385	96
San Jose St.	4	4		5	7		245	352	92
La. Tech	4	3		5	6		239	319	88
Utah St.	2	6		2	10		247	406	84
Idaho	0	8		1	11		258	443	79
New Mexico St.	1	7		4	9		312	471	78

The Bowl Schedule

Date	Time	Bowl	City	Team	Team	Network
12/20	9:00 PM	Poinsettia	San Diego	Utah 8-4	Navy 8-4	ESPN
12/21	8:00 PM	New Orleans	New Orleans	Florida Atlantic 7-5	Memphis 7-5	ESPN2
12/22	1:00 PM	Papa John’s	Birmingham	Cincinnati 9-3	Southern Miss. 7-5	ESPN2
12/22	4:30 PM	New Mexico	Albuquerque	Nevada 6-6	New Mexico 8-4	ESPN
12/22	8:00 PM	Las Vegas	Las Vegas	U C L A 6-6	Brigham Young 10-2	ESPN
12/23	8:00 PM	Hawaii	Honolulu	East Carolina 7-5	Boise State 10-2	ESPN
12/26	7:30 PM	Motor City	Detroit	Purdue 7-5	Central Michigan 8-5	ESPN
12/27	8:00 PM	Holiday	San Diego	Texas 9-3	Arizona St. 10-2	ESPN
12/28	5:00 PM	Champs Sports	Orlando	Boston College 10-3	Michigan St. 7-5	ESPN
12/28	8:00 PM	Texas	Houston	T C U 7-5	Houston 8-4	NFL
12/28	8:00 PM	Emerald	San Francisco	Maryland 6-6	Oregon State 8-4	ESPN
12/29	1:00 PM	Meineke Car Care	Charlotte	Connecticut 9-3	Wake Forest 8-4	ESPN
12/29	4:30 PM	Liberty	Memphis	Central Florida 10-3	Mississippi St. 7-5	ESPN
12/29	8:00 PM	Alamo	San Antonio	Penn State 8-4	Texas A&M 7-5	ESPN
12/30	8:00 PM	Independence	Shrevport	Colorado 6-6	Alabama 6-6	ESPN
12/31	12:30 PM	Armed Forces	Ft. Worth	California 6-6	Air Force 9-3	ESPN
12/31	2:00 PM	Sun	El Paso	South Florida 9-3	Oregon 8-4	CBS
12/31	2:00 PM	Humanitarian	Boise	Georgia Tech 7-5	Fresno St. 8-4	ESPN2
12/31	4:00 PM	Music City	Nashville	Florida State 7-5	Kentucky 7-5	ESPN
12/31	7:30 PM	Chick-fil-A	Atlanta	Clemson 9-3	Auburn 8-4	ESPN
12/31	8:00 PM	Insight	Tempe	Oklahoma St. 6-6	Indiana 7-5	NFL
1/1	11:00 AM	Outback	Tampa	Wisconsin 9-3	Tennessee 9-4	ESPN
1/1	11:30 AM	Cottton	Dallas	Arkansas 8-4	Missouri 11-2	FOX
1/1	1:00 PM	Capital One	Orlando	Michigan 8-4	Florida 9-3	ABC
1/1	1:00 PM	Gator	Jacksonville	Texas Tech 8-4	Virginia 9-3	CBS
1/1	4:30 PM	Rose	Pasadena	Illinois 9-3	Southern Cal 10-2	ABC
1/1	8:30 PM	Sugar	New Orleans	Hawaii 12-0	Georgia 10-2	FOX
1/2	8:00 PM	Fiesta	Glendale	West Virginia 10-2	Oklahoma 11-2	FOX
1/3	8:00 PM	Orange	Miami	Kansas 11-1	Virginia Tech 11-2	FOX
1/5	12:00 PM	International	Toronto	Rutgers 7-5	Ball State 7-5	ESPN2
1/6	8:00 PM	GMAC	Mobile	Tulsa 9-4	Bowling Green 8-4	ESPN
1/7	8:00 PM	National Title	New Orleans	L S U 11-2	Ohio State 11-1	FOX

Selection Monday: The NCAA Football Computer Simulation Pairings

For all of you who want playoffs in lieu of the BcS joke we have, here is how they would work in the PiRate system.

The PiRate system calls for a 12-team playoff.  The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC receive automatic bids.  The six highest ranked teams after that, regardless of conference affiliation are then invited as at-large participants.

The four highest ranked automatic qualifiers receive first round byes, while the other eight teams play in the opening round.  Bowls are used for all 11 games needed for a 12-team playoff.

Round One is December 8.  The Quarterfinals are December 22.  The Semifinals are January 1.  The Championship Game is January 14.

The Participants

ACC: Virginia Tech 11-2

Big East: West Virginia 10-2

Big 10: Ohio State 11-1

Big 12: Oklahoma 11-2

Pac-10: Southern California 10-2

SEC: L S U 11-2

At-Large: Georgia 10-2

At-Large: Missouri 11-2

At-Large: Kansas 11-1

At-Large: Hawaii 12-0

At-Large: Arizona St. 10-2

At-Large: Florida 9-3

Instead of the argument that LSU edged Georgia due to political factors made by certain network shirts, the argument would be between Florida, Illinois, Boston College, and Clemson.  At least these teams know they lost three games and have no right to argue like Georgia has this year.

The brainwashers try to tell the public that a playoff would destroy the bowl.  I ask you this:  How many bowls this year have any meaning or appeal to anybody other than the fans of the participating teams?  Does a bowl pitting a 7-5 team against a 6-6 team attract you to watch?  Are you just chomping at the bit to watch the Poinsettia, Armed Forces, Insight, Texas, and Independence Bowls?  Other than the LSU-Ohio State game, none of the other bowls matter.  Even the historic, Sugar, Cotton, Rose, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls have no bearing on the national championship.  There’s no need to watch these games, and when the sponsors of these bowls hear from enough fans who contact them to tell them as much, they will force a playoff.

Under the PiRate system, 11 bowls would play a deciding factor in the NCAA Championship.  The remaining bowls that currently have 6-6 and 7-5 teams would now have 8-4 and 9-3 teams instead. 

Let’s look at the pairings.

Round One-December 8

 

Gator Bowl:              #5 Georgia vs. #12 Florida

Outback Bowl:         #6 Missouri vs. #11 Arizona State

Holiday Bowl:           #7 Southern Cal vs. #10 Hawaii

Chick-fil-A Bowl:     #8 Kansas vs. #9 West Virginia

Quarterfinals-December 22

Fiesta Bowl:              #4 Oklahoma vs. Winner of Gator Bowl

Capital One Bowl:   #3 Virginia Tech vs. Winner of Outback Bowl

Cotton Bowl:             #2 L S U vs. Winner of Holiday Bowl

Rose Bowl:                #1 Ohio State vs. Winner of Chick-fil-A Bowl

Semifinals-January 1

Sugar Bowl:              Winner of Fiesta Bowl vs. Winner of Rose Bowl

Orange Bowl:           Winner of Capital One Bowl vs. Winner of Cotton Bowl

National Championship Game-January 14

New Orleans                        Winner of Sugar Bowl vs. Winner of Orange Bowl

Check back with the PiRate Ratings for the computer simulation of this championship playoff.  I will post scores and statistics for all these games, starting with round one Saturday.