An extra bowl game was added by the NCAA to ensure all 6-win teams could earn bowl invitations. This extra bowl will be played in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and will include two group of 5 teams.
Teams in bold have officially accepted the bowl bid.
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Georgia
133.8
2
Alabama
132.9
3
Ohio St.
130.4
4
Michigan
127.5
5
Notre Dame
121.9
6
Oklahoma St.
121.5
7
Utah
121.2
8
Oklahoma
120.4
9
Iowa St.
120.1
10
Cincinnati
119.6
11
Texas A&M
118.6
12
Clemson
117.2
13
Wisconsin
116.5
14
Ole Miss
116.2
15
Baylor
116.1
16
U C L A
115.0
17
Penn St.
114.8
18
Arkansas
114.7
19
Auburn
114.1
20
Pittsburgh
113.9
21
Kentucky
113.1
22
NC State
112.7
23
Mississippi St.
112.0
24
Tennessee
111.9
25
L S U
111.5
26
Purdue
111.4
27
Minnesota
111.1
28
Arizona St.
110.3
29
Oregon St.
110.3
30
North Carolina
110.2
31
Miami (Fla.)
110.1
32
BYU
109.8
33
Louisiana
109.7
34
Florida
109.6
35
West Virginia
109.4
36
Wake Forest
109.3
37
Kansas St.
109.3
38
Nebraska
109.3
39
Iowa
109.3
40
Appalachian St.
109.2
41
Washington St.
109.2
42
Oregon
109.0
43
Michigan St.
108.2
44
Texas
107.5
45
Boise St.
106.4
46
Houston
106.0
47
Nevada
105.4
48
Louisville
105.3
49
Florida St.
105.3
50
Coastal Carolina
104.7
51
California
104.6
52
Texas Tech
104.2
53
Fresno St.
104.1
54
Air Force
103.9
55
U S C
103.6
56
Virginia
103.4
57
Washington
103.1
58
Virginia Tech
102.6
59
Army
102.5
60
Central Michigan
102.1
61
T C U
101.8
62
SMU
101.8
63
Illinois
101.6
64
Western Kentucky
101.4
65
South Carolina
100.6
66
Missouri
100.3
67
East Carolina
100.0
68
Maryland
99.9
69
Utah St.
99.5
70
Toledo
99.4
71
Boston College
99.3
72
UCF
98.8
73
Tulsa
98.7
74
Georgia St.
98.7
75
Liberty
98.6
76
Colorado
98.6
77
Miami (Ohio)
98.4
78
San Diego St.
98.4
79
U A B
98.2
80
Syracuse
97.9
81
U T S A
97.7
82
Tulane
95.2
83
Georgia Tech
95.1
84
Memphis
94.6
85
Western Michigan
94.5
86
Stanford
94.3
87
Marshall
94.3
88
Rutgers
93.8
89
Ball St.
93.8
90
Indiana
93.3
91
Hawaii
92.9
92
Wyoming
92.4
93
Arizona
92.3
94
Eastern Michigan
92.1
95
Northwestern
91.9
96
Northern Illinois
91.7
97
Navy
91.5
98
Kent St.
90.4
99
North Texas
90.3
100
Middle Tennessee
90.2
101
South Alabama
89.8
102
Colorado St.
88.9
103
San Jose St.
88.6
104
Buffalo
88.3
105
Troy
88.0
106
USF
87.4
107
Georgia Southern
87.0
108
Florida Atlantic
86.3
109
Ohio
86.1
110
Kansas
85.7
111
Old Dominion
85.7
112
U N L V
85.2
113
U T E P
84.5
114
Vanderbilt
84.0
115
UL-Monroe
83.2
116
Texas St.
83.0
117
Arkansas St.
82.8
118
Duke
80.2
119
Rice
80.0
120
Louisiana Tech
79.7
121
New Mexico
78.0
122
Southern Miss.
77.6
123
Bowling Green
77.1
124
Charlotte
77.0
125
Akron
72.5
126
Temple
72.4
127
New Mexico St.
71.8
128
Connecticut
68.6
129
Florida Int’l.
65.9
130
UMass
64.1
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Cincinnati
119.3
118.9
120.7
119.6
Houston
105.9
105.4
106.6
106.0
SMU
101.7
101.5
102.1
101.8
East Carolina
99.8
99.5
100.8
100.0
UCF
99.0
97.7
99.8
98.8
Tulsa
98.5
98.5
99.1
98.7
Tulane
95.2
94.2
96.1
95.2
Memphis
94.1
94.3
95.3
94.6
Navy
91.3
91.1
92.1
91.5
USF
87.4
86.9
88.0
87.4
Temple
72.3
73.0
71.8
72.4
AAC Averages
96.8
96.5
97.5
96.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Clemson
116.7
116.8
118.0
117.2
NC State
112.5
112.3
113.2
112.7
Wake Forest
109.3
109.1
109.6
109.3
Louisville
104.9
105.0
105.9
105.3
Florida St.
104.9
105.2
105.7
105.3
Boston College
99.4
99.2
99.3
99.3
Syracuse
98.0
98.0
97.8
97.9
Coastal Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Pittsburgh
113.4
114.3
114.2
113.9
North Carolina
109.7
109.7
111.1
110.2
Miami (Fla.)
110.4
109.8
110.2
110.1
Virginia
103.3
103.8
103.0
103.4
Virginia Tech
103.0
102.5
102.4
102.6
Georgia Tech
95.1
95.1
95.0
95.1
Duke
80.6
80.7
79.3
80.2
ACC Averages
104.4
104.4
104.6
104.5
Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Oklahoma St.
121.8
121.5
121.3
121.5
Oklahoma
121.2
119.6
120.3
120.4
Iowa St.
120.8
119.4
120.1
120.1
Baylor
116.5
115.9
115.8
116.1
West Virginia
110.7
109.1
108.4
109.4
Kansas St.
110.1
109.3
108.5
109.3
Texas
108.5
106.8
107.2
107.5
Texas Tech
104.5
104.5
103.7
104.2
T C U
102.9
101.4
101.2
101.8
Kansas
87.4
85.7
83.9
85.7
Big 12 Averages
110.4
109.3
109.0
109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Ohio St.
130.0
130.0
131.3
130.4
Michigan
126.6
127.5
128.4
127.5
Penn St.
114.0
114.6
115.8
114.8
Michigan St.
108.0
108.1
108.6
108.2
Maryland
100.6
99.7
99.4
99.9
Rutgers
93.2
94.7
93.5
93.8
Indiana
93.3
93.0
93.4
93.3
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Wisconsin
116.1
115.9
117.3
116.5
Purdue
110.8
110.8
112.6
111.4
Minnesota
110.3
111.0
112.2
111.1
Nebraska
109.0
109.1
109.8
109.3
Iowa
109.1
108.9
109.9
109.3
Illinois
101.1
101.6
102.2
101.6
Northwestern
92.0
92.0
91.8
91.9
Big Ten Averages
108.2
108.4
109.0
108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Western Kentucky
100.3
101.7
102.2
101.4
Marshall
94.0
94.3
94.7
94.3
Middle Tennessee
89.7
90.2
90.7
90.2
Florida Atlantic
86.0
86.7
86.2
86.3
Old Dominion
84.8
85.9
86.3
85.7
Charlotte
76.6
77.2
77.2
77.0
Florida Int’l.
65.9
65.9
65.8
65.9
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
U A B
98.0
98.4
98.3
98.2
U T S A
97.2
98.0
98.0
97.7
North Texas
89.9
90.5
90.6
90.3
U T E P
84.2
85.2
84.0
84.5
Rice
80.1
80.1
79.8
80.0
Louisiana Tech
80.0
80.2
78.8
79.7
Southern Miss.
77.4
78.0
77.4
77.6
CUSA Averages
86.0
86.6
86.4
86.3
FBS Independents
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Notre Dame
121.1
121.9
122.7
121.9
BYU
109.8
109.5
110.0
109.8
Army
102.5
102.5
102.5
102.5
Liberty
98.5
98.6
98.6
98.6
New Mexico St.
72.1
72.7
70.7
71.8
Connecticut
69.0
69.5
67.2
68.6
UMass
65.2
64.6
62.4
64.1
Indep. Averages
91.2
91.3
90.6
91.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Miami (Ohio)
99.6
98.3
97.3
98.4
Kent St.
90.4
91.1
89.7
90.4
Buffalo
89.2
88.1
87.5
88.3
Ohio
86.0
86.5
85.9
86.1
Bowling Green
77.6
77.8
75.8
77.1
Akron
73.6
72.6
71.4
72.5
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Central Michigan
102.9
101.8
101.5
102.1
Toledo
99.8
99.4
98.9
99.4
Western Michigan
94.8
94.8
93.7
94.5
Ball St.
94.8
94.2
92.5
93.8
Eastern Michigan
93.4
92.1
90.8
92.1
Northern Illinois
92.5
91.7
90.9
91.7
MAC Averages
91.2
90.7
89.7
90.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Boise St.
106.1
106.3
106.7
106.4
Air Force
103.5
103.8
104.5
103.9
Utah St.
99.1
99.9
99.6
99.5
Wyoming
92.0
92.4
92.8
92.4
Colorado St.
89.1
88.9
88.8
88.9
New Mexico
78.5
78.3
77.1
78.0
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Nevada
105.0
106.0
105.3
105.4
Fresno St.
103.2
104.3
104.9
104.1
San Diego St.
98.6
98.4
98.1
98.4
Hawaii
93.0
92.9
92.8
92.9
San Jose St.
88.9
89.0
87.8
88.6
U N L V
85.3
85.0
85.4
85.2
MWC Averages
95.2
95.4
95.3
95.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Oregon St.
109.9
110.5
110.6
110.3
Washington St.
108.6
109.6
109.4
109.2
Oregon
108.2
109.1
109.7
109.0
California
103.0
105.6
105.3
104.6
Washington
102.7
103.4
103.1
103.1
Stanford
94.2
94.8
94.0
94.3
South Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Utah
120.9
121.3
121.3
121.2
U C L A
114.5
115.1
115.4
115.0
Arizona St.
109.8
110.5
110.8
110.3
U S C
103.7
103.4
103.6
103.6
Colorado
98.6
98.7
98.4
98.6
Arizona
92.2
92.3
92.3
92.3
Pac-12 Averages
105.5
106.2
106.2
106.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Georgia
133.4
133.6
134.4
133.8
Kentucky
112.6
113.6
113.1
113.1
Tennessee
111.8
111.7
112.0
111.9
Florida
109.2
110.1
109.4
109.6
South Carolina
101.1
100.7
100.2
100.6
Missouri
100.4
100.7
99.9
100.3
Vanderbilt
84.1
84.0
83.9
84.0
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Alabama
133.0
132.4
133.3
132.9
Texas A&M
118.4
118.8
118.5
118.6
Ole Miss
116.0
116.1
116.3
116.2
Arkansas
114.7
114.7
114.7
114.7
Auburn
114.3
113.7
114.4
114.1
Mississippi St.
111.8
112.1
112.0
112.0
L S U
111.1
111.8
111.7
111.5
SEC Averages
112.3
112.4
112.4
112.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Appalachian St.
108.9
108.7
110.1
109.2
Coastal Carolina
105.5
103.8
104.6
104.7
Georgia St.
98.8
98.3
98.9
98.7
Troy
88.1
87.9
88.1
88.0
Georgia Southern
86.9
87.1
87.0
87.0
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Louisiana
110.0
109.2
110.0
109.7
South Alabama
90.1
89.8
89.4
89.8
UL-Monroe
83.5
83.4
82.7
83.2
Texas St.
83.8
82.4
82.8
83.0
Arkansas St.
83.1
83.0
82.3
82.8
Sun Averages
93.9
93.4
93.6
93.6
Conference Ratings
Rank
Conference
Rating
1
Southeastern
112.4
2
Big 12
109.6
3
Big Ten
108.5
4
Pac-12
106.0
5
Atlantic Coast
104.5
6
American Athletic
96.9
7
Mountain West
95.3
8
Sun Belt
93.6
9
Independents
91.0
10
Mid-American
90.5
11
Conference USA
86.3
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football–Selection Sunday
The Northwestern and Purdue game will be played at Wrigley Field.
FBS vs. FCS Games
FBS
FCS
PiRate
Georgia
Charleston Southern
48.4
Texas A&M
Prairie View
36.4
Mississippi St.
Tennessee St.
36.4
North Carolina
Wofford
33.2
Teams Not Playing This Week
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Georgia
136.0
2
Alabama
131.6
3
Ohio St.
130.3
4
Oklahoma St.
121.2
5
Oklahoma
120.2
6
Texas A&M
119.6
7
Iowa St.
118.6
8
Wisconsin
118.5
9
Ole Miss
117.5
10
Notre Dame
117.3
11
Cincinnati
117.2
12
Utah
117.0
13
Michigan
116.3
14
Auburn
115.0
15
Penn St.
115.0
16
Baylor
114.7
17
Oregon
114.2
18
Clemson
113.5
19
Arkansas
113.3
20
Iowa
113.0
21
Mississippi St.
112.5
22
NC State
112.2
23
Wake Forest
111.8
24
Arizona St.
111.6
25
L S U
111.5
26
Kansas St.
110.9
27
Florida
110.4
28
Michigan St.
110.4
29
North Carolina
110.4
30
U C L A
110.1
31
Pittsburgh
110.0
32
Kentucky
110.0
33
Tennessee
109.8
34
BYU
109.7
35
Nebraska
109.5
36
West Virginia
109.3
37
Oregon St.
109.2
38
Texas
108.9
39
Purdue
108.8
40
Miami (Fla.)
108.5
41
U S C
108.1
42
Louisiana
108.0
43
Minnesota
107.9
44
Coastal Carolina
107.7
45
Louisville
106.8
46
Washington
106.7
47
Boise St.
106.6
48
Appalachian St.
106.6
49
Houston
105.7
50
T C U
105.7
51
SMU
104.9
52
Florida St.
104.7
53
Washington St.
104.6
54
Virginia
104.0
55
Texas Tech
103.8
56
Liberty
103.6
57
Boston College
102.9
58
Nevada
102.5
59
Virginia Tech
102.3
60
California
101.8
61
Air Force
101.7
62
San Diego St.
101.5
63
Army
101.4
64
U T S A
101.1
65
Fresno St.
101.1
66
South Carolina
100.8
67
East Carolina
100.6
68
Maryland
100.5
69
UCF
99.8
70
Missouri
99.7
71
Georgia Tech
99.3
72
Syracuse
99.1
73
Stanford
99.1
74
Miami (Ohio)
98.5
75
Toledo
98.5
76
Illinois
98.3
77
U A B
97.9
78
Indiana
97.9
79
Georgia St.
97.6
80
Central Michigan
97.5
81
Colorado
97.3
82
Rutgers
97.0
83
Marshall
96.8
84
Utah St.
96.7
85
Tulsa
96.0
86
Western Kentucky
96.0
87
Northwestern
95.6
88
Ball St.
95.2
89
Memphis
94.7
90
Arizona
93.9
91
Eastern Michigan
93.6
92
Tulane
93.2
93
Troy
92.7
94
Colorado St.
92.7
95
Wyoming
92.3
96
Western Michigan
91.8
97
South Alabama
91.0
98
San Jose St.
90.7
99
Middle Tennessee
90.5
100
Northern Illinois
90.4
101
Florida Atlantic
90.3
102
Navy
90.2
103
Kent St.
90.0
104
Buffalo
89.7
105
Ohio
89.5
106
USF
89.3
107
Hawaii
89.0
108
Georgia Southern
86.6
109
U N L V
86.6
110
U T E P
84.3
111
Duke
84.1
112
Louisiana Tech
83.5
113
North Texas
83.1
114
Arkansas St.
82.7
115
Kansas
82.5
116
Old Dominion
81.9
117
Texas St.
81.5
118
Vanderbilt
81.0
119
New Mexico
80.6
120
Rice
80.2
121
UL-Monroe
79.3
122
Charlotte
78.7
123
Akron
76.8
124
Temple
75.5
125
Bowling Green
74.9
126
Southern Miss.
74.2
127
New Mexico St.
71.0
128
Florida Int’l.
70.4
129
Connecticut
68.1
130
UMass
64.4
Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive (forward thinking) and not rankings based on what teams have done to date.
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Cincinnati
117.1
116.4
118.1
117.2
Houston
105.7
105.0
106.4
105.7
SMU
104.6
104.7
105.4
104.9
East Carolina
100.3
100.1
101.5
100.6
UCF
99.8
98.6
101.1
99.8
Tulsa
96.0
95.9
96.2
96.0
Memphis
94.1
94.5
95.4
94.7
Tulane
93.3
92.1
94.1
93.2
Navy
90.1
89.9
90.7
90.2
USF
89.3
88.9
89.8
89.3
Temple
75.3
76.0
75.2
75.5
AAC Averages
96.9
96.6
97.6
97.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Clemson
113.2
113.1
114.2
113.5
NC State
112.1
111.9
112.6
112.2
Wake Forest
111.7
111.4
112.2
111.8
Louisville
106.4
106.4
107.7
106.8
Florida St.
104.4
104.6
105.0
104.7
Boston College
102.8
102.9
103.1
102.9
Syracuse
99.0
99.1
99.2
99.1
Coastal Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
North Carolina
109.9
109.9
111.3
110.4
Pittsburgh
109.7
110.4
110.1
110.0
Miami (Fla.)
108.9
108.1
108.6
108.5
Virginia
103.8
104.6
103.7
104.0
Virginia Tech
102.8
102.1
102.0
102.3
Georgia Tech
99.3
99.3
99.2
99.3
Duke
84.4
84.8
83.2
84.1
ACC Averages
104.9
104.9
105.2
105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Oklahoma St.
121.5
121.2
121.0
121.2
Oklahoma
121.1
119.4
120.0
120.2
Iowa St.
119.3
117.9
118.6
118.6
Baylor
115.2
114.5
114.4
114.7
Kansas St.
111.4
110.9
110.4
110.9
West Virginia
110.6
109.0
108.3
109.3
Texas
110.0
108.2
108.6
108.9
T C U
106.4
105.2
105.4
105.7
Texas Tech
104.1
104.1
103.2
103.8
Kansas
84.6
82.6
80.3
82.5
Big 12 Averages
110.4
109.3
109.0
109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Ohio St.
129.8
129.8
131.3
130.3
Michigan
115.5
116.4
116.9
116.3
Penn St.
114.1
114.6
116.1
115.0
Michigan St.
110.2
110.3
110.6
110.4
Maryland
101.4
100.2
99.9
100.5
Indiana
97.9
97.6
98.0
97.9
Rutgers
96.1
98.0
96.7
97.0
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Wisconsin
117.9
117.8
119.6
118.5
Iowa
112.9
112.5
113.7
113.0
Nebraska
109.2
109.4
110.0
109.5
Purdue
108.3
108.2
110.0
108.8
Minnesota
107.1
107.8
108.8
107.9
Illinois
97.9
98.3
98.8
98.3
Northwestern
95.5
95.7
95.5
95.6
Big Ten Averages
108.1
108.4
109.0
108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Marshall
96.5
96.7
97.2
96.8
Western Kentucky
94.7
96.3
96.9
96.0
Middle Tennessee
90.0
90.3
91.1
90.5
Florida Atlantic
89.9
90.8
90.2
90.3
Old Dominion
81.2
82.2
82.3
81.9
Charlotte
78.1
78.9
79.0
78.7
Florida Int’l.
70.2
70.4
70.5
70.4
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
U T S A
100.7
101.4
101.3
101.1
U A B
97.7
98.0
98.1
97.9
U T E P
84.1
85.2
83.5
84.3
Louisiana Tech
83.8
84.1
82.7
83.5
North Texas
82.9
83.3
83.2
83.1
Rice
80.2
80.2
80.2
80.2
Southern Miss.
74.1
74.5
73.8
74.2
CUSA Averages
86.0
86.6
86.4
86.3
FBS Independents
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Notre Dame
116.5
117.3
118.2
117.3
BYU
109.8
109.4
110.0
109.7
Liberty
103.2
103.7
103.9
103.6
Army
101.5
101.4
101.2
101.4
New Mexico St.
71.3
71.9
69.8
71.0
Connecticut
68.7
69.2
66.5
68.1
UMass
65.5
64.9
62.8
64.4
Indep. Averages
90.9
91.1
90.3
90.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Miami (Ohio)
99.8
98.3
97.4
98.5
Kent St.
89.8
91.0
89.3
90.0
Buffalo
90.5
89.5
89.1
89.7
Ohio
89.1
89.9
89.6
89.5
Akron
77.9
76.8
75.9
76.8
Bowling Green
75.5
75.7
73.5
74.9
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Toledo
99.1
98.5
97.8
98.5
Central Michigan
98.5
97.2
96.9
97.5
Ball St.
96.2
95.6
93.7
95.2
Eastern Michigan
94.8
93.6
92.4
93.6
Western Michigan
92.2
92.2
90.8
91.8
Northern Illinois
91.3
90.2
89.6
90.4
MAC Averages
91.2
90.7
89.7
90.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Boise St.
106.2
106.4
107.1
106.6
Air Force
101.3
101.6
102.2
101.7
Utah St.
96.3
97.2
96.7
96.7
Colorado St.
92.7
92.6
92.7
92.7
Wyoming
91.8
92.3
92.9
92.3
New Mexico
81.1
81.0
79.7
80.6
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Nevada
102.1
103.1
102.3
102.5
San Diego St.
101.7
101.5
101.3
101.5
Fresno St.
100.2
101.2
101.9
101.1
San Jose St.
91.0
91.2
89.9
90.7
Hawaii
89.4
89.0
88.6
89.0
U N L V
86.8
86.4
86.8
86.6
MWC Averages
95.0
95.3
95.2
95.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Oregon
113.1
114.4
115.2
114.2
Oregon St.
108.9
109.4
109.4
109.2
Washington
106.1
107.1
107.0
106.7
Washington St.
104.2
105.1
104.6
104.6
California
100.0
103.0
102.4
101.8
Stanford
99.0
99.5
98.7
99.1
South Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Utah
117.0
117.1
117.0
117.0
Arizona St.
111.0
111.7
112.1
111.6
U C L A
109.8
110.1
110.3
110.1
U S C
108.0
107.8
108.4
108.1
Colorado
97.6
97.4
96.9
97.3
Arizona
93.7
93.9
94.1
93.9
Pac-12 Averages
105.7
106.4
106.3
106.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Georgia
135.5
135.9
136.8
136.0
Florida
109.9
111.0
110.4
110.4
Kentucky
109.6
110.6
109.8
110.0
Tennessee
109.7
109.6
110.1
109.8
South Carolina
101.3
100.9
100.2
100.8
Missouri
99.9
100.0
99.1
99.7
Vanderbilt
81.3
81.0
80.6
81.0
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Alabama
131.6
130.9
132.2
131.6
Texas A&M
119.3
119.8
119.6
119.6
Ole Miss
117.4
117.4
117.6
117.5
Auburn
115.2
114.6
115.3
115.0
Arkansas
113.4
113.4
113.1
113.3
Mississippi St.
112.2
112.7
112.7
112.5
L S U
111.0
111.7
111.7
111.5
SEC Averages
112.0
112.1
112.1
112.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Coastal Carolina
108.3
106.7
107.9
107.7
Appalachian St.
106.1
106.0
107.6
106.6
Georgia St.
97.8
97.1
97.8
97.6
Troy
92.6
92.7
93.0
92.7
Georgia Southern
86.7
86.9
86.4
86.6
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Louisiana
108.6
107.3
108.3
108.0
South Alabama
91.3
91.1
90.5
91.0
Arkansas St.
82.9
83.0
82.1
82.7
Texas St.
82.6
80.9
81.1
81.5
UL-Monroe
79.8
79.6
78.5
79.3
Sun Averages
93.7
93.1
93.3
93.4
Conference Ratings
Rank
Conference
Rating
1
Southeastern
112.1
2
Big 12
109.6
3
Big Ten
108.5
4
Pac-12
106.1
5
Atlantic Coast
105.0
6
American Athletic
97.0
7
Mountain West
95.2
8
Sun Belt
93.4
9
Independents
90.8
10
Mid-American
90.5
11
Conference USA
86.3
Playoff and Bowl Projections
Note: This is the first week where we do not project 82 teams to have six or more wins. This week, we project two 5-7 teams to receive bowl bids, both from the Pac-12–Washington and California.
Bowl
Team
Team
Bahamas
UAB
Northern Illinois
Cure
Liberty
Appalachian St.
Boca
Middle Tennessee
Miami (O)
New Mexico
UTEP
Utah St.
Independence
BYU
Western Kentucky
Lending Tree
Central Michigan
San Jose St.
L. A.
San Diego St.
USC
New Orleans
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana
Myrtle Beach
West Virginia
Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato
Kent St.
Boise St.
Frisco
Houston
UTSA
Armed Forces
Army
Marshall
Gasparilla
California
Florida
Hawaii
East Carolina
Nevada
Camellia
Toledo
Georgia St.
Quick Lane
Eastern Michigan
Wyoming
Military
Virginia
SMU
Birmingham
Memphis
Ball St.
First Responder
Washington
Fresno St.
Liberty
Iowa St.
Missouri
Holiday
North Carolina
UCLA
Guaranteed Rate
Rutgers
Texas Tech
Fenway
Boston College
Central Florida
Pinstripe
North Carolina St.
Minnesota
Cheez-It
Baylor
Wake Forest
Alamo
Oklahoma
Arizona St.
Duke’s Mayo
Miami (Fla.)
Auburn
Music City
Penn St.
Tennessee
Las Vegas
Purdue
Washington St.
Tax Slayer Gator
Clemson
Mississippi St.
Tony The Tiger Sun
Louisville
Oregon St.
Arizona
Western Michigan
Air Force
Citrus
Iowa
Texas A&M
Outback
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Texas
Kansas St.
Arkansas
Peach
Cincinnati
Michigan St.
Fiesta
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Rose
Michigan
Utah
Sugar
Ole Miss
Oklahoma St.
Cotton
Oregon
Ohio St.
Orange
Georgia
Alabama
Championship
Georgia
Ohio St.
Where Cincinnati Rates Historically Among Other Unbeatens
With Cincinnati sitting at 10-0 and just on the outside, looking in on a potential College Football Playoff invitation, where do the Bearcats fit in the historical picture of Division 1 teams that won all their games but were not members of a major conference or top independent?
This may be putting the cart before the horse, because CU must win three more games against three better than average teams to get to 13-0 and have a chance to be in the Final Four. A home game this week against SMU could be tricky. A regular season finale at East Carolina is going to be somewhat trickier, as the Pirates have been sneaky good for two months. But, even if Cinti wins those two games, they will have to beat a Houston team that has looked better than the Bearcats in the last month.
Here is a look at all the Division 1 teams with perfect records between 1960 and 2000. I chose these years as a basis for comparing the Bearcats because the sample size was extremely large.
1960–New Mexico State and Yale
Both teams finished in the national top 20, but neither team was at the level of 2021 Cincinnati. While the Ivy League was still Division 1 up until the late 1970’s, by 1960, it was about on par with Conference USA today and maybe not that strong. Yale beat U Conn and Colgate out of conference. NMSU was much better and deserving of their 11-0 season that included a win in the Sun Bowl. With future NFL QB Charley Johnson running the offense, the Aggies were as good as UTSA and Louisiana today, but not Cincinnati.
1961–Rutgers
This is one of the weakest undefeated D1 teams in modern times. Rutgers went 9-0 with five wins over small college opponents and four wins over Ivy League opponents.
1962–Dartmouth
Coach Bob Blackman was a defensive wizard, and he built Dartmouth into a small power. This was his first of three 9-0 teams. Dartmouth gave up just 9 points in their first seven games, but this team was never ranked and not on Cincinnati’s level. That would change.
1964–Princeton
The 9-0 Tigers were one of the last teams to run a single wing offense, and Princeton won a lot of close games to win the Ivy. PU was never ranked, and this Tiger team was little better than the 1961 Rutgers team.
1965–Dartmouth
This Dartmouth team was somewhat better than the 1962 team with a more consistent running game that controlled the clock. Eight of nine wins were never in doubt, but the DC was not on Cincinnati’s level this season. We’re not through with this team though.
1969–San Diego State, Toledo
The Aztecs became classified as a major college team after years of being a dynasty small college team. Coach Don Coryell was in the middle of sending quarterbacks to the NFL, and in Dennis Shaw, he may have had the best passer in the nation, as SDSU went 11-0, while averaging 45 points per game. This team did not earn a ranking in the polls, and their schedule was not worthy of that honor. Not only was this team not on par with 2021 Cincinnati, the 2021 SDSU team would have beaten the 1969 team.
Toledo began a three-year string from 1969 to 1971 where the Rockets won every game. This was not their best in the three-year run, but they did briefly crack the AP Poll.
1970–Arizona State, Toledo, Dartmouth
Now, we have some interesting undefeated teams. Arizona State finished #6 in the final polls with an 11-0 record that included wins over Kansas State, Washington State, Utah, and North Carolina in the Peach Bowl. The Sun Devils might have been a tad better than this Cincinnati team. ASU was loaded with future NFL players.
Toledo’s 1970 team finished #12 in the final poll, but this Rockets team was considerably underrated in 1970. Toledo should have been a Top 10 team that year. Their schedule lacked a power team, which is why they finished #12, but they outgained opponents by close to 200 yards a game when 300 yards was considered an offensive outburst. They won the Tangerine Bowl by four touchdowns. I believe this Toledo team was about as good as this year’s Cincinnati.
Now, for Dartmouth. This was Bob Blackman’s and the Ivy League’s best team post World War II. Dartmouth became the last Ivy League team to finish ranked in the national polls at a way underrated #14. This team went 9-0, finishing in the top 10 nationally in both offense and defense, as they outgained opponents by close to 250 yards per game. They shut out six of their nine opponents, including their final four games. Football experts that saw this team play say they would have defeated Penn State that year, and DC was awarded the Lambert Trophy as the best team in the East. This team might have been strong enough to win a New Year’s Bowl game that year.
1971–Toledo
The third year run of undefeated Rocket teams, they finished #14 in the final polls, but this team was not as good as the 1970 team. Interestingly, this Toledo team became one of just two major college teams to post back-to-back perfect seasons with different coaches. Michigan was the other in 1947 and 1948.
1973–Miami of Ohio
What makes 1973 a bit different from the previous years mentioned in this section is that half of the MAC teams were ranked in the top 20 at some point in 1973. Miami not only beat the other ranked MAC teams, they dominated Florida in the Tangerine Bowl, totally stopping a Gators’ offense that had defeated rival Florida State 49-0 in the regular season finale. Miami allowed less than 7 points per game and less than 200 total yards per game. In a year where six major conference teams did not lose a regular season game, this Miami team got lost in the mix, but I would have favored them over this year’s Cincinnati team.
1975–Arizona State, Arkansas State
This Sun Devils team was not as good as the 1970 team, but they finished #2 in the final rankings thanks to come-from-behind wins over ranked Arizona and Nebraska teams, the Cornhusker upset coming in the Fiesta Bowl. It also helped that there were no other undefeated teams in Division 1 that year, as 11-1 Oklahoma won the national championship after Ohio State lost the Rose Bowl. 2021 Cincinnati probably would beat this ASU team.
Arkansas State went 11-0 with a powerful wishbone offense. Included in the 11 wins were victories over 7-4 Memphis and 6-5 Cincinnati, but this team was about as strong as Louisiana and Appalachian State are today.
1976–Rutgers
1976 was a great year for Scarlet Knight fans. The football team went 11-0 following a basketball team that went undefeated until the Final Four, where they lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in the nation semifinals. This 11-0 football team finished #17 in the polls, but they were not on the level of this year’s Cincinnati. Their best win was over a Colgate team that went 8-2, but it was a controversial win with questionable officiating calls.
1984–BYU
Did BYU deserve to win the 1984 National Championship? Were they better than this year’s Cincinnati team? I don’t think so. This wasn’t even the best BYU team in this era, just the one that was fortunate to go 13-0 against a weak schedule and win a bowl game over the weakest Michigan team in the Bo Schembechler era. BYU’s key wins were against a 3-7-1 Pitt team and a 5-6 Baylor team. In the Fiesta Bowl against 6-5 Michigan, BYU had to rally from behind to win by seven. Quarterback Robbie Bosco continuing to play while injured made for a great copy, but this year’s BYU team might beat that one. They were not deserving of the title that year, as Washington was the real best team in 1984.
1998–Tulane
The Green Wave finished #7 in the final polls with a dominant offense and average defense. TU defeated BYU in the Liberty Bowl but defeated no ranked teams. The 1998 Green Wave was not in this year’s Cincinnati’s class.
1999–Marshall
The Thundering Herd played in the MAC for a few years, and in 1999, they went 13-0 and finished 10th in the final polls behind future NFL QB Chad Pennington. All the Herd could manage to earn was a Motor City Bowl game, where they beat BYU. While Marshall defeated Clemson in the regular season, that CU team went just 6-6 and fired their coach.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football–November 16-20, 2021
Our PiRate Ratings’ statistically-accurate Pro Football Game recently added the NFL Greats from 1960-1975 to the previously issued AFL Greats. These games come to you in Zip Files where you can print your own and save $50 off the cost of purchasing a boxed game. Check it out:
The firing of football coaches began early this year. Quick openings at USC, Connecticut, Georgia Southern, LSU, Texas Tech, and TCU plus the firing of Washington State coach Nick Rolovich for failure to obtain the required Covid Vaccine, makes a record seven coaches fired in the middle of a season. If fans in the Sunshine State had their way, two more head coaches would join that list, maybe three if Florida International had a fanbase.
I never publish the over-the-top negative emails, texts, and comments when an upset fan wants to go on a tirade seeking the loss of a coach’s job. Instead, I usually reply privately to the commenter asking him to explain what the coach is not doing that other successful coaches are doing. Usually, the answer is always either play-calling or personnel decisions.
“If Coach Smith had put Billy Jones in at quarterback in September, and sent in longer passing plays, we’d be 9-0 right now,” is a typical type of response. My reply back to them most of the time includes video of the fan’s team and the top team in the country, running virtually the same offense. Whereas. the top team’s QB gets 3.5 seconds to locate a receiver, and he’s passing to three future NFL receivers, the fan’s teams’ QB gets less than 2 seconds to locate a receiver that is months away from selling insurance, teaching at a Middle School, or working at a sports radio station. When the top team plays a Cover 2 Combo defense, their five underneath defenders stick to the other team’s receivers like glue, and the safeties can play a but closer to the line of scrimmage, because they are sprinters that won’t be beaten deep. When the fan’s team uses the same defense, two or three of the underneath defenders lose their assignment, and the safeties have to play another 5 yards off the ball to keep from being beat deep by superior athletes. When the top team runs an inside zone blast play, their offensive line quickly controls the initial defensive surge and then take care of the linebackers. The fan’s team’s offensive line briefly opens a running lane in the first second after the snap, but by the time the running back gets the ball and arrives at the line of scrimmage, he faces a blockade.
How much of football success in a college game is determined by which team has more talent? The correct answer is somewhere between 80 and 90%! As legendary coach John Wooden stated in one of his famous quotes, “The team with the better players almost always wins.” He said that about basketball, and it is even more true in football, where quicker, and stronger means more to the sport’s success than everything else.
Look at the top recruiting classes of the last five seasons. The best cumulative classes and the best teams this year are strongly correlated. It isn’t a perfect one to one, but if your favorite team has had five consecutive top 10 classes, and your buddy’s favorite teas has had five consecutive recruiting classes in the 20-40 range, chances are about 90% that your team is going to beat his team when they play.
Coaching is not a difficult task. 130 head coaches at the collegiate level know how to teach the game to their players. 130 college strength and conditioning coaches know how to get players beefed up. Find 130 people between the ages of 35 and 60 in your neighborhood with driver’s licenses. How much difference is there in driving their cars down the road? I am not talking about speed; I am talking about keeping the car in the proper lane, not running over the kids waiting at the school bus stop, and not wrapping their vehicle around the telephone pole. The differences will be subtle.
Now say that of these 130 drivers in your neighborhood, 20 have brand new 2022 models that almost do the driving for the driver. 30 others have a 2020 or 2021 model that is easy to drive, but unlike the 2022 models above that parallel park for the driver, the driver must do more work on those one and two year old cars. The rest of the drivers have older model cars, and the bottom 30-50 have cars with issues that impair the drivers’ abilities to keep the car on the road as perfectly as those elite 20. Maybe some of the cars have faulty brakes. Others have leaking oil. Some have bald tires, and the steering on some is a bit loose, and the car “floats” a little.
The best driver of the 130 neighbors will have issues dirving the faulty cars. The least competent of the 130 drivers will still parallel park a new 2022 car easily and effortlessly.
College team fans can sometimes be the number one hindrance in a coach’s ability to recruit. Putting Coach Smith on a hot seat and creating a Fire Coach Smith website, accelerates the issue. When Coach Smith is given a private vote of confidence by his school, but the school’s fans and media say his days are numbered, 18 year old kids hear and see this and become hesitant to sign at State. Maybe, it’s just one or two players, but these could be the ones that move the needle in a couple of years. Rival schools quickly let these 4-star and 5-star talents know that State is on the verge of firing Coach Smith, so come to Tech and play for Coach Williams, who just got a major contract extension and could run for Mayor in Techtown and win by a landslide.
Let me use one example about how insane fandom can be. I will use the hometown college team, Vanderbilt. The Commodores have strict academic restrictions on who coaches can recruit. Of the top 1,000 recruits in a season, about 75 have the academic talent to earn admission to the school. Unfortunately, none of these 75 are required to put Vanderbilt on their list of potential colleges. The A+ student with ACT/SAT scores high enough to gain admission to Vanderbilt, or for that matter, Harvard, Yale, Cal Tech, and MIT, frequently uses that intelligence to realize that four years in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, or Columbus, Ohio, will allow him to be a star in the classroom and on the football field. By becoming a star at Alabama or Ohio State, his ticket for life is virtually guaranteed to be a skybox seat with private valet parking.
First year Vanderbilt head football coach Clark Lea faces a near impossible task of trying to recruit enough players in the high three-star range and up to compete in an SEC that is light years tougher than it was 10 years ago. With Oklahoma and Texas headed to the league, the small private school that shares more in common with former SEC member Sewanee and former Big Ten member Chicago than Alabama or Georgia is in an impossible position to succeed. The talent level between Vanderbilt and the next weakest team in the SEC is almost as far apart as the number 13 SEC team is to Alabama and Georgia. Lea has talent that could not win the Conference USA divisions. 20 FCS teams have more talent, and East Tennessee State totally dominated the Commodores in the season opener.
Vanderbilt defeated 1-8 Connecticut, a team that only beat Yale and then just barely, when the Huskies had to use their backup quarterback. The Commodores won the game on a final play field goal by a kicker that had been #2 at Alabama and was not going to see action. That UConn team lost to UMass, a team that was just dominated by Rhode Island.
Lea took over a car that had brake, transmission, steering, and suspension issues along with bald tires and a leaking head gasket. He has to drive on the same street with 13 brand new state of the art smart cars. Yet, there are deluded fans that believe he should be at the head of the motorcade and is to blame for the car not being able to stay in its lane or even start on cold mornings.
The monumental task of trying to build this program into one that can compete for minor bowls once every three years is already suffering from the arrows being publicly shot by a small amount of vocal fans, three of which have sent me emails venting about how Lea cannot coach. Since I do not participate in any of the public sports forums for Vanderbilt athletics, as I basically stopped following the program as a fan over a decade ago, I only see what these fans send me, but I can easily see that when recruits read this scathing criticism on these forums, and both their parents and they do read them, it creates reasonable doubt, and players begin to decommit, which has happened in the last fortnight.
Years ago, I made a public statement on a sports radio show that trying to win SEC football games at Vanderbilt was akin to beating a similarly skilled opponent in chess when he has both queens, and you have nine pawns. These vociferous fans have now robbed Lea of a bishop. Lea will be the coach at Vanderbilt for at least three more years after this season, and a minority of Vanderbilt fans may see their opinions become fact somewhat because the three recruits per year they turn away makes the difference in a couple of wins per year.
If you are a fan of a fledgling football program like Arizona, Kansas, or Vanderbilt, anything you can legally do to enhance your school’s recruiting efforts should be the obvious way to support your school other than with your checkbook. Successful recruiting is the only way a school can overcome bad times and improve to mediocre to decent to above average to really good. In the SEC of the mid 2020’s, Vanderbilt may face a situation similar to what Sewanee and Chicago faced in the late 1930’s. The task for Coach Lea is already close to impossible; if you root for the Commodores, don’t remove the “close.”
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football–November 9-13, 2021
Did you watch the Penn State-Illinois game Saturday? It was tied 10-10 after 60 minutes of excellent defensive football. The Illini shut down the Penn State passing game while controlling the clock by running and running and more running.
Both teams scored field goals in the first two overtimes to make the score 16-16. The new overtime rule states that starting with the third overtime, both teams get a two-point conversion attempt. If the score remains tied, then successive two-point conversion attempts are taken until one team scores and the other team does not.
Additionally, after the first overtime, there are no more coin flips. The teams rotate the choice. And, what happens is the home team always wants to play on the side of the field where the student body cheers in the end zone, while the opponent wants to play at the other end of the field. After each overtime, the players, officials, chain gang, and hundreds of fans must make the 100-yard walk to the other end of the field.
It’s no longer much of a secret that making two-point conversions is about as difficult as making 55-yard field goals. That became a huge problem yesterday in Happy Valley, Pennsylvania. Penn State and Illinois could not convert their two-point conversion attempts. Overtimes three, four, five, six, and seven produced 10 consecutive botched conversions. As each overtime ended, everybody had to move to the other end of the field, and the longer into this mess it continued, the big tubby linemen began to walk at a snail’s pace to get back.
Illinois finally scored in the eighth overtime, but then Penn State did the same forcing a ninth overtime. The game was finally decided when the Nittany Lions missed their ninth overtime attempt, while Illinois scored to win the game 20-18.
In the amount of time it took to play the nine overtimes, another game that kicked off at the same time as the first overtime began the second quarter of their game just before the nine-overtime game concluded. In other words, it took a little longer than one full quarter to play the nine overtimes.
Imagine a game in late November with sloppy playing conditions where regulation ends in a tie game, and nobody can score in the overtimes for 10 or more of these ridiculous two-point conversion attempts. If it took nine yesterday, there is a possibility that somebody else will need 10 or more.
The NCAA must re-evaluate this fiasco of a rule. In fact, the NCAA needs to have a constitutional convention and modify a lot of the rules to get into the 21st century. Here is our suggestion for rules changes–use the same rules the NFL uses. To wit:
1. Overtime should be one, 10-minute period with a touchdown on the first possession winning the game, but a field goal allowing the other team to have a possession. If the game is still tied after 10 minutes, it stands as a tie game.
2. Intentional pass interference is now a definite defensive option to stop a big gain. Players will even deliver cheap shots knowing that giving up 15 yards beats giving up 50 or a touchdown. Because passing the ball is tantamount to winning, the pass interference penalty needs to go back to giving the offense the ball at the spot of interference, be it 12 yards past the line or 50.
3. The clock should not stop on first downs. That rule was in effect when chain gangs were the only way to spot the ball. In today’s world, the ball can be spotted quickly via computerization and an extra referee. Let the clock move on first downs.
4. Add the two-minute warning. In lieu of the clock stopping on first downs, add a two-minute warning to both halves. That is when teams need the clock to stop, and the networks can get an extra commercial break before halftime or the end of the game.
5. Allow a player that falls to the ground with the ball but having been untouched by the defense to get up and advance. Why should poor playing conditions be responsible for making a defensive stop? Â
Here’s one additional rule change that should be considered. Targeting happens too much these days when the ball carrier lowers his head to invite the targeting penalty. This is almost like the flop in basketball. The rule needs to be changed so that when the ball carrier initiates the targeting by putting himself into position for any tackle to become a potential targeting penalty, the offense should be penalized 15 yards for a personal foul.
Additionally, ejection is much too harsh of a penalty. How about making targeting a 20-yard penalty and automatic first down, and also allowing it to supersede the half the distance to the goal and be allowed to go all the way to the 1-yard line if the offense is in the Red Zone? A penalty in one game shouldn’t be allowed to stay in effect for a half of another game. This may be the most ridiculous rule in college football history. Think of a basketball game where a Syracuse player commits an intentional foul on a Connecticut player late in the second half of a game, and then three days later when Syracuse plays Duke, Duke gets to start the game with 2 foul shots from the intentional foul three days back.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football–October 28-30, 2021
With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.
American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.
Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.
The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.
Atlantic Coast
Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.
The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division.Â
If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.
If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.
Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.
Big 12
Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.
If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.
If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.
If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.
If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.
Big Ten
Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.
The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.
Conference USA
This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.
In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.
If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.
If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.
In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes. Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.
If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.
If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.
If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.
If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.
All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.
Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)
BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.
Liberty is bowl eligible
Mid-American
Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.
Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.
Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.
Mountain West
Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.
Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.
Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.
Pac-12
Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.
Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.
Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.
Southeastern
The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.
Sun Belt
Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.
If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.
Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.
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The SEC Bowl Issue
With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.
Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.
Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.
The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.
We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.
Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.
At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.
Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.
Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.
The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.
The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.
That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.
The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.
With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.
That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.
This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.
If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.
The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections
Note: This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night. It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins. We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference. The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.
Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another. Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.
Bowl
Conf
Conf
Team
Team
Bahamas
MAC
CUSA
Buffalo
Charlotte
Frisco
AAC
At-large
SMU
[UAB]
Cure
AAC
SBC
Navy
Georgia St.
New Mexico
CUSA
MWC
Southern Miss.
San Diego St.
Boca Raton
AAC
MAC
Central Florida
Miami (O)
Camellia
MAC
SBC
Western Michigan
Arkansas St.
Las Vegas
MWC #1
Pac-12
Boise St.
Washington St.
New Orleans
CUSA
SBC #1
Louisiana Tech
Appalachian St.
Gasparilla
AAC
CUSA
Cincinnati
Florida Atlantic
Hawaii
BYU/MWC
AAC/MWC
BYU
Hawaii
Independence
ACC
SEC
Florida St.
[Marshall]
Quick Lane
ACC
Big Ten
Miami (Fla.)
Michigan St.
Military
ACC
AAC
North Carolina
Temple
Pinstripe
ACC
Big Ten
Pittsburgh
Illinois
Texas
Big 12
SEC
Texas
Texas A&M
Holiday
Pac-12
Big Ten
Washington
Michigan
Cheez-It
Big 12
Pac-12
Kansas St.
[Nevada]
Camping World
ACC
Big 12
Notre Dame
Oklahoma St.
Cotton
At-large
At-large
Memphis
Utah
First Responder
CUSA
Big 12
Western Ky.
TCU
Redbox
Pac-12
Big Ten
Arizona St.
Iowa
Music City
SEC
ACC
[Central Michigan]
Louisville
Orange
ACC
BTen/SEC
Virginia Tech
Florida
Belk
ACC
SEC
Wake Forest
Missouri
Sun
ACC
Pac-12
Virginia
California
Liberty
Big 12
SEC
Iowa St.
[Liberty]
Arizona
SBC
MWC
Louisiana
Air Force
Alamo
Big 12
Pac-12
Baylor
USC
Citrus
SEC
BTen/ACC
Auburn
Wisconsin
Outback
Big Ten
SEC
Penn St.
Tennessee
Rose
Big Ten
Pac-12
Minnesota
Oregon
Sugar
Big 12
SEC
Oklahoma
Georgia
Birmingham
AAC
SEC
Tulane
[Florida Int’l.]
Taxslayer/Gator
SEC
Big Ten
Kentucky
Indiana
Idaho Potato
MAC
MWC
Toledo
Wyoming
Armed Forces
Big Ten
MWC
Nebraska
Utah St.
Mobile Alabama
MAC
SBC
Eastern Michigan
Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta
Top 4
Top 4
Georgia
Ohio St.
Peach
Top 4
Top 4
Clemson
LSU
Championship
Fiesta
Peach
Georgia
Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
Comments Off on PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019
The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.
The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.
Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.