The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 2, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 5-8, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:22 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Central FloridaSMU4.96.35.4
RutgersNebraska1.81.00.1
MemphisHouston-1.00.4-1.4
NevadaColorado St.6.57.56.4
San Jose St.UNLV2.85.34.1
Georgia TechDuke2.90.43.2
MarylandPurdue-0.40.61.2
VirginiaLouisville-7.5-6.4-8.3
Miami (Fla.)North Carolina6.14.65.8
IndianaMichigan-22.1-21.8-24.7
Bowling GreenBuffalo3.4-0.10.4
PittsburghVirginia Tech18.617.119.0
GeorgiaAuburn26.526.529.0
Boston CollegeClemson-18.0-16.6-19.3
MassachusettsLiberty-23.0-24.0-27.2
Michigan St.Ohio St.-17.0-16.9-19.5
KentuckySouth Carolina6.88.28.0
North Carolina St.Florida St.7.36.77.6
KansasTCU-9.0-9.2-10.6
FloridaMissouri6.07.07.0
CincinnatiSouth Florida23.624.426.2
Georgia St.Georgia Southern7.16.68.3
Miami (O)Kent St.3.33.65.0
Western MichiganEastern Michigan8.48.79.5
Texas St.Appalachian St.-15.9-16.4-17.5
Wake ForestArmy15.214.814.9
Arkansas St.James Madison-7.6-8.1-11.4
Iowa St.Kansas St.-0.70.3-0.4
Boise St.Fresno St.4.94.85.1
OhioAkron9.911.711.9
Utah St.Air Force-9.4-9.4-9.7
ArizonaOregon-13.9-13.3-13.4
USCWashington St.10.810.610.9
UCLAUtah-6.3-5.5-6.5
Arizona St.Washington-4.6-5.9-5.3
StanfordOregon St.-3.1-4.9-5.7
Louisiana-MonroeCoastal Carolina-10.3-11.4-12.8
VanderbiltOle Miss-20.1-17.4-20.1
LSUTennessee0.8-0.1-0.4
TulaneEast Carolina3.43.32.4
Oklahoma St.Texas Tech13.813.813.5
Oklahoma Texas2.12.03.4
AlabamaTexas A&M25.023.625.3
TroySouthern Miss.6.97.08.3
Mississippi St.Arkansas4.54.83.5
NorthwesternWisconsin-12.3-10.6-12.7
IllinoisIowa-1.10.7-0.6
NavyTulsa-4.0-4.2-5.3
Central MichiganBall St.8.99.811.3
Northern IllinoisToledo1.91.20.4
UABMiddle Tennessee12.111.312.4
UTSAWestern Kentucky1.50.5-0.3
Florida Int’l.Connecticut-13.8-12.1-13.2
Louisiana TechUTEP-3.2-1.7-4.5
New MexicoWyoming2.10.3-0.2
Notre Dame BYU3.13.03.6
San Diego St.Hawaii25.223.624.9
Oklahoma-Texas played in Dallas / Notre Dame-BYU played in Las Vegas

No FBS vs. FCS Games This Week

Teams With Byes This Week

Baylor
California
Charlotte
Colorado
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana
Marshall
Minnesota
New Mexico St.
North Texas
Old Dominion
Penn St.
Rice
South Alabama
Syracuse
Temple
West Virginia

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama132.2
2Ohio St.131.3
3Georgia130.2
4Michigan124.4
5Clemson119.3
6Utah118.7
7Minnesota118.7
8Oklahoma St.118.4
9Tennessee118.0
10Penn St.116.7
11NC State116.1
12T C U115.4
13Oklahoma115.2
14Ole Miss115.2
15Purdue115.2
16Mississippi St.115.1
17L S U115.1
18Arkansas113.8
19Baylor113.6
20Oregon113.2
21Notre Dame112.8
22Texas112.7
23Maryland112.6
24U S C112.6
25Iowa112.6
26Cincinnati112.4
27Kentucky112.2
28Kansas St.112.1
29Florida St.111.9
30Wisconsin111.1
31Pittsburgh110.7
32Texas A&M110.6
33Miami (Fla.)110.6
34Michigan St.110.5
35U C L A109.7
36BYU109.5
37Illinois109.2
38Washington109.2
39Iowa St.108.9
40Wake Forest108.5
41Louisville108.2
42Syracuse108.2
43North Carolina108.1
44Oregon St.107.8
45Texas Tech107.7
46South Carolina107.6
47Florida106.7
48UCF106.5
49West Virginia106.0
50Auburn105.8
51Washington St.104.9
52SMU104.0
53Missouri103.1
54Kansas102.8
55Air Force102.4
56Nebraska101.6
57Tulane101.4
58East Carolina101.3
59Houston101.2
60Arizona St.100.9
61Boise St.100.8
62Stanford100.2
63W. Kentucky100.2
64Rutgers99.6
65Appalachian St.99.3
66Fresno St.98.9
67California98.8
68Indiana98.5
69Boston College98.4
70Virginia98.3
71Memphis98.1
72Liberty98.0
73U T S A97.8
74James Madison97.8
75Tulsa97.2
76U A B97.1
77Georgia St.96.6
78Arizona96.6
79Coastal Carolina96.5
80Toledo96.4
81Northwestern96.2
82Army96.0
83Troy95.2
84N. Illinois95.0
85Virginia Tech94.9
86Marshall94.6
87Duke94.2
88Vanderbilt94.0
89Georgia Tech93.9
90South Alabama93.3
91San Jose St.93.2
92Miami (Ohio)93.1
93San Diego St.93.0
94Central Mich.92.5
95Louisiana92.3
96U N L V92.2
97Kent St.91.1
98Western Mich.91.0
99Ga. Southern90.8
100USF90.7
101Southern Miss.90.3
102Utah St.89.9
103Navy89.6
104Old Dominion89.3
105Florida Atlantic87.9
106Middle Tennessee87.7
107Colorado87.5
108Buffalo87.4
109U T E P86.8
110North Texas86.5
111Wyoming86.4
112Arkansas St.86.2
113Bowling Green86.1
114Nevada85.6
115Rice85.6
116Ohio85.4
117Ball St.85.0
118Eastern Mich.84.7
119New Mexico84.2
120UL-Monroe82.5
121Colorado St.81.8
122Louisiana Tech81.2
123Temple80.8
124Connecticut80.4
125Texas St.80.1
126Charlotte79.6
127Akron76.3
128Hawaii71.4
129New Mexico St.71.3
130Massachusetts71.2
131Florida Int’l.64.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati112.1111.6113.6112.4
UCF106.1106.8106.7106.5
SMU104.3103.4104.3104.0
Tulane101.7101.1101.3101.4
East Carolina101.2100.8101.9101.3
Houston101.5100.6101.6101.2
Memphis98.098.597.798.1
Tulsa97.396.797.597.2
USF91.590.290.490.7
Navy90.289.589.289.6
Temple80.882.878.780.8

AAC98.698.398.598.5

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson119.3119.1119.6119.3
NC State116.5115.5116.3116.1
Florida St.112.2111.8111.8111.9
Wake Forest108.6108.4108.5108.5
Louisville109.0108.0107.8108.2
Syracuse109.0107.9107.6108.2
Boston College98.399.597.398.4

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh111.7110.5109.9110.7
Miami (Fla.)111.1109.9110.7110.6
North Carolina108.1108.3107.9108.1
Virginia99.099.196.998.3
Virginia Tech95.695.893.494.9
Duke94.196.492.094.2
Georgia Tech94.694.392.893.9

ACC106.2106.0105.2105.8

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.118.9117.5118.9118.4
T C U116.0114.8115.4115.4
Oklahoma115.7114.6115.3115.2
Baylor114.2113.1113.6113.6
Texas113.6112.7111.8112.7
Kansas St.112.8111.5112.1112.1
Iowa St.109.0108.8108.8108.9
Texas Tech108.0106.7108.4107.7
West Virginia106.4106.0105.7106.0
Kansas104.0102.6101.8102.8

Big 12111.8110.8111.2111.3

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.131.5130.2132.2131.3
Michigan124.8123.7124.7124.4
Penn St.116.9116.9116.5116.7
Maryland112.7112.7112.6112.6
Michigan St.111.5110.3109.7110.5
Rutgers100.999.997.999.6
Indiana99.798.997.098.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota118.9118.2118.9118.7
Purdue116.0115.1114.3115.2
Iowa113.6112.4111.7112.6
Wisconsin111.7111.1110.5111.1
Illinois109.5110.1108.1109.2
Nebraska102.2101.9100.8101.6
Northwestern96.497.594.896.2

Big Ten111.9111.3110.7111.3

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky99.599.5101.6100.2
U T S A98.097.098.397.8
U A B96.796.797.997.1
Florida Atlantic87.688.787.487.9
Middle Tennessee87.187.988.087.7
U T E P86.886.686.986.8
North Texas86.485.787.586.5
Rice85.685.585.685.6
Louisiana Tech81.182.479.981.2
Charlotte79.680.279.079.6
Florida Int’l.64.467.063.064.8

CUSA86.687.086.886.8

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame113.2111.6113.5112.8
BYU110.1108.6109.9109.5
Liberty96.898.498.798.0
Army95.996.196.196.0
Connecticut80.781.678.880.4
New Mexico St.70.972.870.271.3
Massachusetts71.872.469.571.2

Independents91.391.691.091.3

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)91.594.093.793.1
Kent St.90.392.490.791.1
Buffalo85.988.488.087.4
Bowling Green86.885.885.886.1
Ohio84.286.485.785.4
Akron76.276.875.876.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo95.596.597.196.4
N. Illinois94.995.295.095.0
Central Mich.91.092.893.692.5
Western Mich.90.591.391.291.0
Ball St.84.685.684.885.0
Eastern Mich.84.685.184.284.7

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Air Force102.1102.1103.0102.4
Boise St.100.9100.1101.5100.8
Utah St.89.889.790.389.9
Wyoming85.387.386.686.4
New Mexico84.584.683.484.2
Colorado St.81.682.481.681.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.99.098.399.598.9
San Jose St.92.493.294.093.2
San Diego St.93.192.693.193.0
U N L V92.690.992.992.2
Nevada85.186.885.085.6
Hawaii70.972.171.371.4

MWC89.890.090.290.0

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah118.4117.7120.2118.7
Oregon113.6112.9113.0113.2
U S C112.0112.6113.3112.6
U C L A109.1109.2110.7109.7
Washington108.6109.3109.7109.2
Oregon St.107.8107.1108.4107.8
Washington St.104.2105.0105.4104.9
Arizona St.100.9100.5101.4100.9
Stanford101.799.399.7100.2
California98.498.599.698.8
Arizona96.796.596.696.6
Colorado88.686.787.387.5

Pac-12105.0104.6105.4105.0

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia130.3128.9131.3130.2
Tennessee117.8117.9118.2118.0
Kentucky111.6112.3112.8112.2
South Carolina107.9107.1107.7107.6
Florida106.1107.6106.5106.7
Missouri103.1103.5102.5103.1
Vanderbilt94.295.092.794.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama132.0131.2133.4132.2
Ole Miss116.3114.5114.8115.2
Mississippi St.115.8114.6115.0115.1
L S U115.6114.8114.8115.1
Arkansas114.3112.7114.5113.8
Texas A&M110.0110.6111.1110.6
Auburn106.8105.4105.3105.8

SEC113.0112.6112.9112.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.97.999.5100.399.3
James Madison95.597.5100.397.8
Georgia St.96.195.698.296.6
Coastal Carolina95.496.797.496.5
Marshall94.295.194.594.6
Ga. Southern90.690.591.490.8
Old Dominion89.389.489.289.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy94.395.096.395.2
South Alabama92.493.194.393.3
Louisiana91.791.993.392.3
Southern Miss.89.990.590.590.3
Arkansas St.85.486.986.486.2
UL-Monroe82.682.882.182.5
Texas St.79.580.680.380.1

Sun Belt91.191.892.591.8

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.8
2Big Ten111.3
3Big 12111.3
4Atlantic Coast105.8
5Pac-12105.0
6American Athletic98.5
7Sun Belt91.8
8Independents91.3
9Mountain West90.0
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.8

2022 Debut of Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasRiceWestern Michigan
CureMiddle TennesseeSouthern Miss.
FenwayNotre DameCentral Florida
New MexicoUTSANew Mexico
L.A.Oregon St.San Jose St.
Lending TreeKent St.Marshall
Las VegasUSCLSU
Frisco{Kansas}BYU
Myrtle Beach{Iowa St.}Appalachian St.
Famous Idaho PotatoBoise St.Ball St.
Boca Raton{Texas Tech}Coastal Carolina
New OrleansTroyUAB
Armed ForcesHoustonWestern Kentucky
IndependenceSMUArmy
Gasparilla[South Carolina]Memphis
HawaiiUNLVUTEP
Quick Lane{Liberty}Eastern Michigan
CamelliaMiami (O)South Alabama
First ResponderTulsa{Wyoming}
BirminghamNorth Texas[Louisville]
Guaranteed RateTexas[Wisconsin]
MilitaryPittsburghTulane
LibertyBaylor{Washington St.}
HolidayUCLASyracuse
TexasOklahomaTexas A&M
PinstripeNorth CarolinaPurdue
Cheez-ItDukeKansas St.
AlamoOklahoma St.Oregon
Duke’s MayoWake ForestMaryland
Tony the TigerMiami (Fla.)Washingon
ArizonaAir ForceToledo
OrangeNorth Carolina St.Tennessee
Music CityIowaFlorida
SugarTCUOle Miss
TaxSlayerMississippi St.Florida St.
PeachAlabamaClemson
FiestaOhio St.Georgia
Tampa BayMinnesotaKentucky
CitrusIllinoisArkansas
CottonPenn St.Cincinnati
RoseUtahMichigan
National ChampionshipAlabamaOhio St.

{Team} = At-large replacement when team not available

[Team] = Team projected to be 5-7 but receive bid due to highest APR scores

December 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–Selection Sunday

This Week’s College Football Game

December 11PiRateMeanBias
ArmyNavy11.211.410.4

Final Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
Added Bowl Game*Ball St.Nevada
BahamasMiddle TennesseeToledo
CureSMUAppalachian St.
BocaKent St.Liberty
New MexicoUTEPSan Diego St.
IndependenceBYUUTSA
Lending TreeCentral MichiganMarshall
L. A.Utah St.Oregon St.
New OrleansUABCoastal Carolina
Myrtle BeachOld DominionGeorgia St.
Famous Idaho PotatoWestern MichiganBoise St.
FriscoNorth TexasAir Force
Armed ForcesTulsaArmy
GasparillaLouisvilleFlorida
HawaiiMemphisHawaii
CamelliaNorthern IllinoisLouisiana
Quick LaneEastern MichiganWyoming
MilitaryVirginiaEast Carolina
BirminghamHoustonSouth Carolina
First ResponderWestern KentuckyMissouri
LibertyWest VirginiaMississippi St.
HolidayNorth Carolina St.UCLA
Guaranteed RateMarylandTexas Tech
FenwayCentral FloridaBoston College
PinstripeVirginia TechPenn St.
Cheez-ItClemsonIowa St.
AlamoOklahomaOregon
Duke’s MayoWake ForestTennessee
Music CityPurdueAuburn
Las VegasWisconsinWashington St.
Tax Slayer GatorMiami (Fla.)Arkansas
Tony The Tiger SunNorth CarolinaArizona St.
ArizonaMiami (O)Fresno St.
CitrusIowaKentucky
OutbackMinnesotaTexas A&M
TexasKansas St.LSU
PeachPitt/WakeNotre Dame
FiestaMichigan St.Oklahoma St.
RoseOhio St.Utah
SugarBaylorOle Miss
CottonMichiganGeorgia
OrangeAlabamaCincinnati
ChampionshipAlabamaGeorgia
  • An extra bowl game was added by the NCAA to ensure all 6-win teams could earn bowl invitations. This extra bowl will be played in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and will include two group of 5 teams.
  • Teams in bold have officially accepted the bowl bid.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia133.8
2Alabama132.9
3Ohio St.130.4
4Michigan127.5
5Notre Dame121.9
6Oklahoma St.121.5
7Utah121.2
8Oklahoma120.4
9Iowa St.120.1
10Cincinnati119.6
11Texas A&M118.6
12Clemson117.2
13Wisconsin116.5
14Ole Miss116.2
15Baylor116.1
16U C L A115.0
17Penn St.114.8
18Arkansas114.7
19Auburn114.1
20Pittsburgh113.9
21Kentucky113.1
22NC State112.7
23Mississippi St.112.0
24Tennessee111.9
25L S U111.5
26Purdue111.4
27Minnesota111.1
28Arizona St.110.3
29Oregon St.110.3
30North Carolina110.2
31Miami (Fla.)110.1
32BYU109.8
33Louisiana109.7
34Florida109.6
35West Virginia109.4
36Wake Forest109.3
37Kansas St.109.3
38Nebraska109.3
39Iowa109.3
40Appalachian St.109.2
41Washington St.109.2
42Oregon109.0
43Michigan St.108.2
44Texas107.5
45Boise St.106.4
46Houston106.0
47Nevada105.4
48Louisville105.3
49Florida St.105.3
50Coastal Carolina104.7
51California104.6
52Texas Tech104.2
53Fresno St.104.1
54Air Force103.9
55U S C103.6
56Virginia103.4
57Washington103.1
58Virginia Tech102.6
59Army102.5
60Central Michigan102.1
61T C U101.8
62SMU101.8
63Illinois101.6
64Western Kentucky101.4
65South Carolina100.6
66Missouri100.3
67East Carolina100.0
68Maryland99.9
69Utah St.99.5
70Toledo99.4
71Boston College99.3
72UCF98.8
73Tulsa98.7
74Georgia St.98.7
75Liberty98.6
76Colorado98.6
77Miami (Ohio)98.4
78San Diego St.98.4
79U A B98.2
80Syracuse97.9
81U T S A97.7
82Tulane95.2
83Georgia Tech95.1
84Memphis94.6
85Western Michigan94.5
86Stanford94.3
87Marshall94.3
88Rutgers93.8
89Ball St.93.8
90Indiana93.3
91Hawaii92.9
92Wyoming92.4
93Arizona92.3
94Eastern Michigan92.1
95Northwestern91.9
96Northern Illinois91.7
97Navy91.5
98Kent St.90.4
99North Texas90.3
100Middle Tennessee90.2
101South Alabama89.8
102Colorado St.88.9
103San Jose St.88.6
104Buffalo88.3
105Troy88.0
106USF87.4
107Georgia Southern87.0
108Florida Atlantic86.3
109Ohio86.1
110Kansas85.7
111Old Dominion85.7
112U N L V85.2
113U T E P84.5
114Vanderbilt84.0
115UL-Monroe83.2
116Texas St.83.0
117Arkansas St.82.8
118Duke80.2
119Rice80.0
120Louisiana Tech79.7
121New Mexico78.0
122Southern Miss.77.6
123Bowling Green77.1
124Charlotte77.0
125Akron72.5
126Temple72.4
127New Mexico St.71.8
128Connecticut68.6
129Florida Int’l.65.9
130UMass64.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati119.3118.9120.7119.6
Houston105.9105.4106.6106.0
SMU101.7101.5102.1101.8
East Carolina99.899.5100.8100.0
UCF99.097.799.898.8
Tulsa98.598.599.198.7
Tulane95.294.296.195.2
Memphis94.194.395.394.6
Navy91.391.192.191.5
USF87.486.988.087.4
Temple72.373.071.872.4

AAC Averages96.896.597.596.9


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson116.7116.8118.0117.2
NC State112.5112.3113.2112.7
Wake Forest109.3109.1109.6109.3
Louisville104.9105.0105.9105.3
Florida St.104.9105.2105.7105.3
Boston College99.499.299.399.3
Syracuse98.098.097.897.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh113.4114.3114.2113.9
North Carolina109.7109.7111.1110.2
Miami (Fla.)110.4109.8110.2110.1
Virginia103.3103.8103.0103.4
Virginia Tech103.0102.5102.4102.6
Georgia Tech95.195.195.095.1
Duke80.680.779.380.2

ACC Averages104.4104.4104.6104.5


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.121.8121.5121.3121.5
Oklahoma121.2119.6120.3120.4
Iowa St.120.8119.4120.1120.1
Baylor116.5115.9115.8116.1
West Virginia110.7109.1108.4109.4
Kansas St.110.1109.3108.5109.3
Texas108.5106.8107.2107.5
Texas Tech104.5104.5103.7104.2
T C U102.9101.4101.2101.8
Kansas87.485.783.985.7

Big 12 Averages110.4109.3109.0109.6


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.130.0130.0131.3130.4
Michigan126.6127.5128.4127.5
Penn St.114.0114.6115.8114.8
Michigan St.108.0108.1108.6108.2
Maryland100.699.799.499.9
Rutgers93.294.793.593.8
Indiana93.393.093.493.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin116.1115.9117.3116.5
Purdue110.8110.8112.6111.4
Minnesota110.3111.0112.2111.1
Nebraska109.0109.1109.8109.3
Iowa109.1108.9109.9109.3
Illinois101.1101.6102.2101.6
Northwestern92.092.091.891.9

Big Ten Averages108.2108.4109.0108.5


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Western Kentucky100.3101.7102.2101.4
Marshall94.094.394.794.3
Middle Tennessee89.790.290.790.2
Florida Atlantic86.086.786.286.3
Old Dominion84.885.986.385.7
Charlotte76.677.277.277.0
Florida Int’l.65.965.965.865.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B98.098.498.398.2
U T S A97.298.098.097.7
North Texas89.990.590.690.3
U T E P84.285.284.084.5
Rice80.180.179.880.0
Louisiana Tech80.080.278.879.7
Southern Miss.77.478.077.477.6

CUSA Averages86.086.686.486.3


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame121.1121.9122.7121.9
BYU109.8109.5110.0109.8
Army102.5102.5102.5102.5
Liberty98.598.698.698.6
New Mexico St.72.172.770.771.8
Connecticut69.069.567.268.6
UMass65.264.662.464.1

Indep. Averages91.291.390.691.0


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.698.397.398.4
Kent St.90.491.189.790.4
Buffalo89.288.187.588.3
Ohio86.086.585.986.1
Bowling Green77.677.875.877.1
Akron73.672.671.472.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan102.9101.8101.5102.1
Toledo99.899.498.999.4
Western Michigan94.894.893.794.5
Ball St.94.894.292.593.8
Eastern Michigan93.492.190.892.1
Northern Illinois92.591.790.991.7

MAC Averages91.290.789.790.5


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.106.1106.3106.7106.4
Air Force103.5103.8104.5103.9
Utah St.99.199.999.699.5
Wyoming92.092.492.892.4
Colorado St.89.188.988.888.9
New Mexico78.578.377.178.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Nevada105.0106.0105.3105.4
Fresno St.103.2104.3104.9104.1
San Diego St.98.698.498.198.4
Hawaii93.092.992.892.9
San Jose St.88.989.087.888.6
U N L V85.385.085.485.2

MWC Averages95.295.495.395.3


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon St.109.9110.5110.6110.3
Washington St.108.6109.6109.4109.2
Oregon108.2109.1109.7109.0
California103.0105.6105.3104.6
Washington102.7103.4103.1103.1
Stanford94.294.894.094.3

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah120.9121.3121.3121.2
U C L A114.5115.1115.4115.0
Arizona St.109.8110.5110.8110.3
U S C103.7103.4103.6103.6
Colorado98.698.798.498.6
Arizona92.292.392.392.3

Pac-12 Averages105.5106.2106.2106.0


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia133.4133.6134.4133.8
Kentucky112.6113.6113.1113.1
Tennessee111.8111.7112.0111.9
Florida109.2110.1109.4109.6
South Carolina101.1100.7100.2100.6
Missouri100.4100.799.9100.3
Vanderbilt84.184.083.984.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama133.0132.4133.3132.9
Texas A&M118.4118.8118.5118.6
Ole Miss116.0116.1116.3116.2
Arkansas114.7114.7114.7114.7
Auburn114.3113.7114.4114.1
Mississippi St.111.8112.1112.0112.0
L S U111.1111.8111.7111.5

SEC Averages112.3112.4112.4112.4


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.108.9108.7110.1109.2
Coastal Carolina105.5103.8104.6104.7
Georgia St.98.898.398.998.7
Troy88.187.988.188.0
Georgia Southern86.987.187.087.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana110.0109.2110.0109.7
South Alabama90.189.889.489.8
UL-Monroe83.583.482.783.2
Texas St.83.882.482.883.0
Arkansas St.83.183.082.382.8

Sun Averages93.993.493.693.6

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.4
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.5
4Pac-12106.0
5Atlantic Coast104.5
6American Athletic96.9
7Mountain West95.3
8Sun Belt93.6
9Independents91.0
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.3

November 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 16-20, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Eastern MichiganWestern Michigan4.53.43.6
Ohio UToledo-7.9-6.7-6.2
Miami (O)Bowling Green26.324.625.8
Ball St.Central Michigan0.30.9-0.7
BuffaloNorthern Illinois1.61.82.0
DukeLouisville-19.5-19.2-22.0
Louisiana TechSouthern Miss.12.212.011.4
HoustonMemphis14.613.514.0
Washington St.Arizona13.414.213.5
NevadaAir Force3.84.53.1
UNLVSan Diego St.-12.4-12.6-12.0
PittsburghVirginia8.98.79.4
CincinnatiSMU15.514.715.7
ArmyMassachusetts39.039.541.5
Central FloridaConnecticut34.032.437.6
Miami (Fla.)Virginia Tech9.19.09.6
North Carolina St.Syracuse16.215.816.4
AkronKent St.-9.9-12.2-11.4
Ohio St.Michigan St.22.622.523.7
Coastal CarolinaTexas St.28.728.829.9
MarylandMichigan-11.0-13.2-14.0
MissouriFlorida-7.0-8.0-8.3
West VirginiaTexas3.63.72.8
TennesseeSouth Alabama21.421.522.6
Boston CollegeFlorida St.1.41.31.1
LibertyLouisiana-2.4-0.6-1.3
Northwestern (Wrig)Purdue-11.3-11.0-13.0
IndianaMinnesota-6.6-7.7-8.3
Penn St.Rutgers20.018.621.4
ClemsonWake Forest4.54.75.0
WisconsinNebraska11.811.412.6
Western KentuckyFlorida Atlantic7.88.49.7
IowaIllinois18.017.217.9
Boise St.New Mexico28.128.430.4
UtahOregon6.95.84.8
ColoradoWashington-5.4-6.8-7.0
Notre DameGeorgia Tech20.221.122.0
StanfordCalifornia0.6-2.0-2.2
Oregon St.Arizona St.1.00.70.3
USCUCLA-0.3-0.8-0.4
NavyEast Carolina-7.2-7.2-7.9
South CarolinaAuburn-10.9-10.7-12.1
TulsaTemple23.722.924.0
TroyAppalachian St.-11.0-10.8-12.1
Ole MissVanderbilt39.139.440.0
Middle TennesseeOld Dominion11.310.611.3
AlabamaArkansas21.120.522.1
LSULouisiana-Monroe33.234.135.2
TulaneSouth Florida6.55.86.8
OklahomaIowa St.4.74.54.4
TCUKansas24.825.628.2
KentuckyNew Mexico St.41.341.743.0
CharlotteMarshall-15.9-15.2-15.6
UTSAUAB6.06.46.1
Texas TechOklahoma St.-14.4-14.1-14.8
Kansas St.Baylor-0.7-0.6-1.0
Georgia St.Arkansas St.17.416.618.2
UTEPRice6.47.55.9
Georgia SouthernBYU-20.1-19.6-20.6
Florida Int’l.North Texas-10.2-10.4-10.2
Utah St.Wyoming7.57.96.8
HawaiiColorado St.0.80.4-0.1

The Northwestern and Purdue game will be played at Wrigley Field.

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
GeorgiaCharleston Southern48.4
Texas A&MPrairie View36.4
Mississippi St.Tennessee St.36.4
North CarolinaWofford33.2

Teams Not Playing This Week

Fresno St.
San Jose St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia136.0
2Alabama131.6
3Ohio St.130.3
4Oklahoma St.121.2
5Oklahoma120.2
6Texas A&M119.6
7Iowa St.118.6
8Wisconsin118.5
9Ole Miss117.5
10Notre Dame117.3
11Cincinnati117.2
12Utah117.0
13Michigan116.3
14Auburn115.0
15Penn St.115.0
16Baylor114.7
17Oregon114.2
18Clemson113.5
19Arkansas113.3
20Iowa113.0
21Mississippi St.112.5
22NC State112.2
23Wake Forest111.8
24Arizona St.111.6
25L S U111.5
26Kansas St.110.9
27Florida110.4
28Michigan St.110.4
29North Carolina110.4
30U C L A110.1
31Pittsburgh110.0
32Kentucky110.0
33Tennessee109.8
34BYU109.7
35Nebraska109.5
36West Virginia109.3
37Oregon St.109.2
38Texas108.9
39Purdue108.8
40Miami (Fla.)108.5
41U S C108.1
42Louisiana108.0
43Minnesota107.9
44Coastal Carolina107.7
45Louisville106.8
46Washington106.7
47Boise St.106.6
48Appalachian St.106.6
49Houston105.7
50T C U105.7
51SMU104.9
52Florida St.104.7
53Washington St.104.6
54Virginia104.0
55Texas Tech103.8
56Liberty103.6
57Boston College102.9
58Nevada102.5
59Virginia Tech102.3
60California101.8
61Air Force101.7
62San Diego St.101.5
63Army101.4
64U T S A101.1
65Fresno St.101.1
66South Carolina100.8
67East Carolina100.6
68Maryland100.5
69UCF99.8
70Missouri99.7
71Georgia Tech99.3
72Syracuse99.1
73Stanford99.1
74Miami (Ohio)98.5
75Toledo98.5
76Illinois98.3
77U A B97.9
78Indiana97.9
79Georgia St.97.6
80Central Michigan97.5
81Colorado97.3
82Rutgers97.0
83Marshall96.8
84Utah St.96.7
85Tulsa96.0
86Western Kentucky96.0
87Northwestern95.6
88Ball St.95.2
89Memphis94.7
90Arizona93.9
91Eastern Michigan93.6
92Tulane93.2
93Troy92.7
94Colorado St.92.7
95Wyoming92.3
96Western Michigan91.8
97South Alabama91.0
98San Jose St.90.7
99Middle Tennessee90.5
100Northern Illinois90.4
101Florida Atlantic90.3
102Navy90.2
103Kent St.90.0
104Buffalo89.7
105Ohio89.5
106USF89.3
107Hawaii89.0
108Georgia Southern86.6
109U N L V86.6
110U T E P84.3
111Duke84.1
112Louisiana Tech83.5
113North Texas83.1
114Arkansas St.82.7
115Kansas82.5
116Old Dominion81.9
117Texas St.81.5
118Vanderbilt81.0
119New Mexico80.6
120Rice80.2
121UL-Monroe79.3
122Charlotte78.7
123Akron76.8
124Temple75.5
125Bowling Green74.9
126Southern Miss.74.2
127New Mexico St.71.0
128Florida Int’l.70.4
129Connecticut68.1
130UMass64.4

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive (forward thinking) and not rankings based on what teams have done to date.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati117.1116.4118.1117.2
Houston105.7105.0106.4105.7
SMU104.6104.7105.4104.9
East Carolina100.3100.1101.5100.6
UCF99.898.6101.199.8
Tulsa96.095.996.296.0
Memphis94.194.595.494.7
Tulane93.392.194.193.2
Navy90.189.990.790.2
USF89.388.989.889.3
Temple75.376.075.275.5

AAC Averages96.996.697.697.0


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson113.2113.1114.2113.5
NC State112.1111.9112.6112.2
Wake Forest111.7111.4112.2111.8
Louisville106.4106.4107.7106.8
Florida St.104.4104.6105.0104.7
Boston College102.8102.9103.1102.9
Syracuse99.099.199.299.1

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.9109.9111.3110.4
Pittsburgh109.7110.4110.1110.0
Miami (Fla.)108.9108.1108.6108.5
Virginia103.8104.6103.7104.0
Virginia Tech102.8102.1102.0102.3
Georgia Tech99.399.399.299.3
Duke84.484.883.284.1

ACC Averages104.9104.9105.2105.0


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.121.5121.2121.0121.2
Oklahoma121.1119.4120.0120.2
Iowa St.119.3117.9118.6118.6
Baylor115.2114.5114.4114.7
Kansas St.111.4110.9110.4110.9
West Virginia110.6109.0108.3109.3
Texas110.0108.2108.6108.9
T C U106.4105.2105.4105.7
Texas Tech104.1104.1103.2103.8
Kansas84.682.680.382.5

Big 12 Averages110.4109.3109.0109.6


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.129.8129.8131.3130.3
Michigan115.5116.4116.9116.3
Penn St.114.1114.6116.1115.0
Michigan St.110.2110.3110.6110.4
Maryland101.4100.299.9100.5
Indiana97.997.698.097.9
Rutgers96.198.096.797.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin117.9117.8119.6118.5
Iowa112.9112.5113.7113.0
Nebraska109.2109.4110.0109.5
Purdue108.3108.2110.0108.8
Minnesota107.1107.8108.8107.9
Illinois97.998.398.898.3
Northwestern95.595.795.595.6

Big Ten Averages108.1108.4109.0108.5


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.596.797.296.8
Western Kentucky94.796.396.996.0
Middle Tennessee90.090.391.190.5
Florida Atlantic89.990.890.290.3
Old Dominion81.282.282.381.9
Charlotte78.178.979.078.7
Florida Int’l.70.270.470.570.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A100.7101.4101.3101.1
U A B97.798.098.197.9
U T E P84.185.283.584.3
Louisiana Tech83.884.182.783.5
North Texas82.983.383.283.1
Rice80.280.280.280.2
Southern Miss.74.174.573.874.2

CUSA Averages86.086.686.486.3


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame116.5117.3118.2117.3
BYU109.8109.4110.0109.7
Liberty103.2103.7103.9103.6
Army101.5101.4101.2101.4
New Mexico St.71.371.969.871.0
Connecticut68.769.266.568.1
UMass65.564.962.864.4

Indep. Averages90.991.190.390.8


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.898.397.498.5
Kent St.89.891.089.390.0
Buffalo90.589.589.189.7
Ohio89.189.989.689.5
Akron77.976.875.976.8
Bowling Green75.575.773.574.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo99.198.597.898.5
Central Michigan98.597.296.997.5
Ball St.96.295.693.795.2
Eastern Michigan94.893.692.493.6
Western Michigan92.292.290.891.8
Northern Illinois91.390.289.690.4

MAC Averages91.290.789.790.5


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.106.2106.4107.1106.6
Air Force101.3101.6102.2101.7
Utah St.96.397.296.796.7
Colorado St.92.792.692.792.7
Wyoming91.892.392.992.3
New Mexico81.181.079.780.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Nevada102.1103.1102.3102.5
San Diego St.101.7101.5101.3101.5
Fresno St.100.2101.2101.9101.1
San Jose St.91.091.289.990.7
Hawaii89.489.088.689.0
U N L V86.886.486.886.6

MWC Averages95.095.395.295.2


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon113.1114.4115.2114.2
Oregon St.108.9109.4109.4109.2
Washington106.1107.1107.0106.7
Washington St.104.2105.1104.6104.6
California100.0103.0102.4101.8
Stanford99.099.598.799.1

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah117.0117.1117.0117.0
Arizona St.111.0111.7112.1111.6
U C L A109.8110.1110.3110.1
U S C108.0107.8108.4108.1
Colorado97.697.496.997.3
Arizona93.793.994.193.9
Pac-12 Averages105.7106.4106.3106.1


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia135.5135.9136.8136.0
Florida109.9111.0110.4110.4
Kentucky109.6110.6109.8110.0
Tennessee109.7109.6110.1109.8
South Carolina101.3100.9100.2100.8
Missouri99.9100.099.199.7
Vanderbilt81.381.080.681.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.6130.9132.2131.6
Texas A&M119.3119.8119.6119.6
Ole Miss117.4117.4117.6117.5
Auburn115.2114.6115.3115.0
Arkansas113.4113.4113.1113.3
Mississippi St.112.2112.7112.7112.5
L S U111.0111.7111.7111.5

SEC Averages112.0112.1112.1112.1


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina108.3106.7107.9107.7
Appalachian St.106.1106.0107.6106.6
Georgia St.97.897.197.897.6
Troy92.692.793.092.7
Georgia Southern86.786.986.486.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana108.6107.3108.3108.0
South Alabama91.391.190.591.0
Arkansas St.82.983.082.182.7
Texas St.82.680.981.181.5
UL-Monroe79.879.678.579.3

Sun Averages93.793.193.393.4

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.1
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.5
4Pac-12106.1
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.2
8Sun Belt93.4
9Independents90.8
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.3

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: This is the first week where we do not project 82 teams to have six or more wins. This week, we project two 5-7 teams to receive bowl bids, both from the Pac-12–Washington and California.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUABNorthern Illinois
CureLibertyAppalachian St.
BocaMiddle TennesseeMiami (O)
New MexicoUTEPUtah St.
IndependenceBYUWestern Kentucky
Lending TreeCentral MichiganSan Jose St.
L. A.San Diego St.USC
New OrleansFlorida AtlanticLouisiana
Myrtle BeachWest VirginiaCoastal Carolina
Famous Idaho PotatoKent St.Boise St.
FriscoHoustonUTSA
Armed ForcesArmyMarshall
GasparillaCaliforniaFlorida
HawaiiEast CarolinaNevada
CamelliaToledoGeorgia St.
Quick LaneEastern MichiganWyoming
MilitaryVirginiaSMU
BirminghamMemphisBall St.
First ResponderWashingtonFresno St.
LibertyIowa St.Missouri
HolidayNorth CarolinaUCLA
Guaranteed RateRutgersTexas Tech
FenwayBoston CollegeCentral Florida
PinstripeNorth Carolina St.Minnesota
Cheez-ItBaylorWake Forest
AlamoOklahomaArizona St.
Duke’s MayoMiami (Fla.)Auburn
Music CityPenn St.Tennessee
Las VegasPurdueWashington St.
Tax Slayer GatorClemsonMississippi St.
Tony The Tiger SunLouisvilleOregon St.
ArizonaWestern MichiganAir Force
CitrusIowaTexas A&M
OutbackWisconsinKentucky
TexasKansas St.Arkansas
PeachCincinnatiMichigan St.
FiestaNotre DamePittsburgh
RoseMichiganUtah
SugarOle MissOklahoma St.
CottonOregonOhio St.
OrangeGeorgiaAlabama
ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

Where Cincinnati Rates Historically Among Other Unbeatens

With Cincinnati sitting at 10-0 and just on the outside, looking in on a potential College Football Playoff invitation, where do the Bearcats fit in the historical picture of Division 1 teams that won all their games but were not members of a major conference or top independent?

This may be putting the cart before the horse, because CU must win three more games against three better than average teams to get to 13-0 and have a chance to be in the Final Four.  A home game this week against SMU could be tricky.  A regular season finale at East Carolina is going to be somewhat trickier, as the Pirates have been sneaky good for two months.  But, even if Cinti wins those two games, they will have to beat a Houston team that has looked better than the Bearcats in the last month.

Here is a look at all the Division 1 teams with perfect records between 1960 and 2000.  I chose these years as a basis for comparing the Bearcats because the sample size was extremely large.

1960–New Mexico State and Yale

Both teams finished in the national top 20, but neither team was at the level of 2021 Cincinnati.  While the Ivy League was still Division 1 up until the late 1970’s, by 1960, it was about on par with Conference USA today and maybe not that strong.  Yale beat U Conn and Colgate out of conference.  NMSU was much better and deserving of their 11-0 season that included a win in the Sun Bowl.  With future NFL QB Charley Johnson running the offense, the Aggies were as good as UTSA and Louisiana today, but not Cincinnati.

1961–Rutgers

This is one of the weakest undefeated D1 teams in modern times.  Rutgers went 9-0 with five wins over small college opponents and four wins over Ivy League opponents.  

1962–Dartmouth

Coach Bob Blackman was a defensive wizard, and he built Dartmouth into a small power.  This was his first of three 9-0 teams.  Dartmouth gave up just 9 points in their first seven games, but this team was never ranked and not on Cincinnati’s level.  That would change.

1964–Princeton

The 9-0 Tigers were one of the last teams to run a single wing offense, and Princeton won a lot of close games to win the Ivy.  PU was never ranked, and this Tiger team was little better than the 1961 Rutgers team.

1965–Dartmouth

This Dartmouth team was somewhat better than the 1962 team with a more consistent running game that controlled the clock.  Eight of nine wins were never in doubt, but the DC was not on Cincinnati’s level this season.  We’re not through with this team though.

1969–San Diego State, Toledo

The Aztecs became classified as a major college team after years of being a dynasty small college team.  Coach Don Coryell was in the middle of sending quarterbacks to the NFL, and in Dennis Shaw, he may have had the best passer in the nation, as SDSU went 11-0, while averaging 45 points per game.  This team did not earn a ranking in the polls, and their schedule was not worthy of that honor.  Not only was this team not on par with 2021 Cincinnati, the 2021 SDSU team would have beaten the 1969 team.

Toledo began a three-year string from 1969 to 1971 where the Rockets won every game.  This was not their best in the three-year run, but they did briefly crack the AP Poll.

1970–Arizona State, Toledo, Dartmouth

Now, we have some interesting undefeated teams.  Arizona State finished #6 in the final polls with an 11-0 record that included wins over Kansas State, Washington State, Utah, and North Carolina in the Peach Bowl.  The Sun Devils might have been a tad better than this Cincinnati team.  ASU was loaded with future NFL players.

Toledo’s 1970 team finished #12 in the final poll, but this Rockets team was considerably underrated in 1970.  Toledo should have been a Top 10 team that year.  Their schedule lacked a power team, which is why they finished #12, but they outgained opponents by close to 200 yards a game when 300 yards was considered an offensive outburst.  They won the Tangerine Bowl by four touchdowns.  I believe this Toledo team was about as good as this year’s Cincinnati.

Now, for Dartmouth.  This was Bob Blackman’s and the Ivy League’s best team post World War II.  Dartmouth became the last Ivy League team to finish ranked in the national polls at a way underrated #14.  This team went 9-0, finishing in the top 10 nationally in both offense and defense, as they outgained opponents by close to 250 yards per game.  They shut out six of their nine opponents, including their final four games.  Football experts that saw this team play say they would have defeated Penn State that year, and DC was awarded the Lambert Trophy as the best team in the East.  This team might have been strong enough to win a New Year’s Bowl game that year.  

1971–Toledo

The third year run of undefeated Rocket teams, they finished #14 in the final polls, but this team was not as good as the 1970 team.  Interestingly, this Toledo team became one of just two major college teams to post back-to-back perfect seasons with different coaches.  Michigan was the other in 1947 and 1948.

1973–Miami of Ohio

What makes 1973 a bit different from the previous years mentioned in this section is that half of the MAC teams were ranked in the top 20 at some point in 1973.  Miami not only beat the other ranked MAC teams, they dominated Florida in the Tangerine Bowl, totally stopping a Gators’ offense that had defeated rival Florida State 49-0 in the regular season finale.  Miami allowed less than 7 points per game and less than 200 total yards per game.  In a year where six major conference teams did not lose a regular season game, this Miami team got lost in the mix, but I would have favored them over this year’s Cincinnati team.

1975–Arizona State, Arkansas State

This Sun Devils team was not as good as the 1970 team, but they finished #2 in the final rankings thanks to come-from-behind wins over ranked Arizona and Nebraska teams, the Cornhusker upset coming in the Fiesta Bowl.  It also helped that there were no other undefeated teams in Division 1 that year, as 11-1 Oklahoma won the national championship after Ohio State lost the Rose Bowl.  2021 Cincinnati probably would beat this ASU team.

Arkansas State went 11-0 with a powerful wishbone offense.  Included in the 11 wins were victories over 7-4 Memphis and 6-5 Cincinnati, but this team was about as strong as Louisiana and Appalachian State are today.  

1976–Rutgers

1976 was a great year for Scarlet Knight fans.  The football team went 11-0 following a basketball team that went undefeated until the Final Four, where they lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in the nation semifinals.  This 11-0 football team finished #17 in the polls, but they were not on the level of this year’s Cincinnati.  Their best win was over a Colgate team that went 8-2, but it was a controversial win with questionable officiating calls.

1984–BYU

Did BYU deserve to win the 1984 National Championship?  Were they better than this year’s Cincinnati team?  I don’t think so.  This wasn’t even the best BYU team in this era, just the one that was fortunate to go 13-0 against a weak schedule and win a bowl game over the weakest Michigan team in the Bo Schembechler era.  BYU’s key wins were against a 3-7-1 Pitt team and a 5-6 Baylor team.  In the Fiesta Bowl against 6-5 Michigan, BYU had to rally from behind to win by seven.  Quarterback Robbie Bosco continuing to play while injured made for a great copy, but this year’s BYU team might beat that one.  They were not deserving of the title that year, as Washington was the real best team in 1984.

1998–Tulane

The Green Wave finished #7 in the final polls with a dominant offense and average defense.  TU defeated BYU in the Liberty Bowl but defeated no ranked teams.  The 1998 Green Wave was not in this year’s Cincinnati’s class.

1999–Marshall

The Thundering Herd played in the MAC for a few years, and in 1999, they went 13-0 and finished 10th in the final polls behind future NFL QB Chad Pennington.  All the Herd could manage to earn was a Motor City Bowl game, where they beat BYU.  While Marshall defeated Clemson in the regular season, that CU team went just 6-6 and fired their coach.

November 7, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 9-13, 2021

PiRate Pro Football Game — NFL Edition

Our PiRate Ratings’ statistically-accurate Pro Football Game recently added the NFL Greats from 1960-1975 to the previously issued AFL Greats. These games come to you in Zip Files where you can print your own and save $50 off the cost of purchasing a boxed game. Check it out:

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Miami (O)Buffalo7.77.06.0
Eastern MichiganOhio U11.79.99.1
Western MichiganAkron19.220.620.4
Bowling GreenToledo-19.4-18.7-19.8
Central MichiganKent St.8.05.76.7
Northern IllinoisBall St.-3.2-3.9-2.6
PittsburghNorth Carolina3.03.72.0
South FloridaCincinnati-25.4-25.3-26.5
Boise St.Wyoming17.917.718.3
Kansas St.West Virginia0.61.61.6
Coastal CarolinaGeorgia St.17.216.217.1
ClemsonConnecticut46.846.350.0
IowaMinnesota9.28.18.5
Virginia TechDuke18.917.518.8
Georgia TechBoston College1.81.91.8
Penn St.Michigan3.73.54.9
IndianaRutgers11.69.411.1
TempleHouston-26.8-25.0-27.2
Michigan St.Maryland10.411.712.3
LouisvilleSyracuse5.24.86.1
Oklahoma St.TCU10.611.511.1
TexasKansas35.936.138.8
Wake ForestNorth Carolina St.0.90.80.9
BaylorOklahoma-7.3-6.4-7.4
VirginiaNotre Dame-5.6-5.4-7.4
WisconsinNorthwestern22.822.324.3
RiceWestern Kentucky-9.5-11.1-11.5
ArizonaUtah-22.2-22.3-22.2
Appalachian St.South Alabama16.816.719.1
UCLAColorado12.713.313.8
WashingtonArizona St.-1.5-0.9-1.3
UNLVHawaii-1.7-2.0-1.4
OregonWashington St.11.311.412.8
Oregon St.Stanford11.010.611.4
CaliforniaUSC-5.1-1.8-3.1
MemphisEast Carolina-3.8-3.0-4.1
AuburnMississippi St.10.09.19.9
Louisiana TechCharlotte8.07.35.4
Texas TechIowa St.-16.0-14.7-16.6
TroyLouisiana-13.5-11.9-12.8
Old DominionFlorida Atlantic-11.1-11.3-10.5
SMUCentral Florida3.64.92.5
MissouriSouth Carolina1.51.91.5
VanderbiltKentucky-27.1-28.8-28.6
UTSASouthern Miss.31.231.432.0
AlabamaNew Mexico St.61.360.063.4
Ole MissTexas A&M-1.4-2.3-2.1
TennesseeGeorgia-22.0-22.5-23.0
Ohio St.Purdue23.623.523.0
Florida St.Miami (Fla.)-3.7-2.8-3.3
MarshallUAB4.34.45.1
LSUArkansas0.61.52.2
Texas St.Georgia Southern-1.0-2.9-2.0
Middle TennesseeFlorida Int’l.17.617.518.0
TulaneTulsa1.00.22.2
North TexasUTEP0.6-0.31.3
Louisiana-MonroeArkansas St.0.1-0.3-0.5
Fresno St.New Mexico21.422.624.7
Colorado St.Air Force-6.5-6.6-7.2
San Jose St.Utah St.5.34.64.0
San Diego St.Nevada2.61.21.7

FBS vs. FCS Games This Week

FBSFCSPiRate
FloridaSamford31.2
MassachusettsMaine1.8
ArmyBucknell38.8

FBS Teams With The Week Off

BYU
Illinois
Liberty
Navy
Nebraska

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia135.4
2Alabama130.6
3Ohio St.129.5
4Oklahoma122.4
5Texas A&M120.8
6Iowa St.120.6
7Utah117.9
8Cincinnati117.6
9Wisconsin117.4
10Oklahoma St.117.2
11Auburn117.0
12Penn St.115.9
13Ole Miss115.8
14Notre Dame115.0
15Michigan114.8
16Oregon113.7
17Texas113.4
18Clemson113.4
19Iowa113.3
20Arkansas113.2
21Baylor112.4
22NC State112.3
23Wake Forest111.7
24Florida111.6
25L S U111.6
26Arizona St.111.3
27West Virginia110.7
28Kentucky110.6
29Mississippi St.110.3
30North Carolina110.3
31Pittsburgh110.1
32Tennessee109.9
33Michigan St.109.7
34Coastal Carolina109.6
35BYU109.4
36Miami (Fla.)109.4
37Nebraska109.2
38T C U109.2
39Purdue109.1
40Kansas St.109.0
41U C L A108.8
42Oregon St.108.4
43U S C108.1
44Louisiana108.0
45Minnesota107.6
46Washington107.0
47Boise St.106.9
48Appalachian St.106.0
49Virginia105.9
50Washington St.104.9
51Houston104.7
52Louisville104.1
53Florida St.104.1
54Liberty103.3
55SMU102.7
56Nevada102.6
57U T S A102.4
58UCF102.0
59Indiana101.9
60Texas Tech101.8
61Syracuse101.8
62California101.8
63Boston College101.4
64San Diego St.101.4
65Air Force101.3
66Maryland101.2
67Virginia Tech101.1
68South Carolina100.9
69Fresno St.100.8
70Georgia Tech100.8
71East Carolina100.7
72Stanford100.4
73Army100.4
74Missouri99.5
75Colorado98.5
76Illinois98.0
77Marshall98.0
78Toledo97.1
79Miami (Ohio)96.6
80U A B96.4
81Northwestern96.2
82Central Michigan95.9
83Ball St.95.6
84Eastern Michigan95.4
85Georgia St.95.3
86Tulsa95.3
87Memphis94.6
88San Jose St.94.5
89Western Kentucky94.5
90Rutgers94.2
91Tulane93.9
92Western Michigan93.2
93Colorado St.93.0
94Utah St.92.9
95Troy92.8
96Arizona92.7
97Florida Atlantic92.5
98Buffalo92.1
99Wyoming92.0
100Kent St.91.6
101South Alabama91.5
102Hawaii90.8
103Navy90.0
104Northern Illinois89.9
105USF88.9
106Middle Tennessee88.3
107Ohio87.7
108Georgia Southern86.3
109Duke85.7
110U N L V85.1
111U T E P84.5
112Louisiana Tech83.3
113North Texas83.0
114Arkansas St.82.4
115Texas St.81.9
116Rice81.3
117New Mexico80.9
118Vanderbilt80.4
119UL-Monroe79.6
120Kansas79.5
121Old Dominion79.0
122Charlotte78.9
123Bowling Green76.3
124Temple75.8
125Akron75.7
126Southern Miss.73.4
127Florida Int’l.73.1
128New Mexico St.72.0
129Connecticut68.7
130UMass66.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati117.4116.8118.7117.6
Houston104.8103.9105.3104.7
SMU102.5102.6103.0102.7
UCF101.9100.7103.5102.0
East Carolina100.3100.1101.7100.7
Tulsa95.495.295.395.3
Memphis94.194.595.294.6
Tulane93.992.895.093.9
Navy89.989.790.590.0
USF89.088.589.288.9
Temple75.576.475.675.8

AAC Averages96.896.597.596.9


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson113.1113.0114.1113.4
NC State112.2112.0112.7112.3
Wake Forest111.6111.3112.1111.7
Louisville103.8103.6105.0104.1
Florida St.103.9104.1104.3104.1
Syracuse101.6101.9101.9101.8
Boston College101.4101.4101.5101.4

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.8109.8111.2110.3
Pittsburgh109.8110.5110.2110.1
Miami (Fla.)109.7108.9109.6109.4
Virginia105.6106.5105.5105.9
Virginia Tech101.7100.8100.7101.1
Georgia Tech100.7100.8100.8100.8
Duke85.886.484.885.7

ACC Averages105.0105.1105.3105.1


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma123.3121.6122.4122.4
Iowa St.121.2119.8120.7120.6
Oklahoma St.117.5117.2117.0117.2
Texas114.5112.7113.1113.4
Baylor113.0112.3112.0112.4
West Virginia112.0110.4109.8110.7
T C U109.9108.7108.9109.2
Kansas St.109.5109.0108.4109.0
Texas Tech102.2102.2101.1101.8
Kansas81.679.677.379.5

Big 12 Averages110.5109.3109.1109.6


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.129.1129.0130.4129.5
Penn St.114.9115.5117.2115.9
Michigan114.2115.0115.3114.8
Michigan St.109.5109.6109.9109.7
Indiana101.9101.6102.0101.9
Maryland102.1100.9100.6101.2
Rutgers93.395.293.994.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin116.9116.7118.5117.4
Iowa113.1112.7114.0113.3
Nebraska108.9109.1109.7109.2
Purdue108.5108.5110.4109.1
Minnesota106.9107.6108.5107.6
Illinois97.698.098.598.0
Northwestern96.196.496.296.2

Big Ten Averages108.1108.3108.9108.4


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall97.697.998.698.0
Western Kentucky93.394.995.494.5
Florida Atlantic92.093.092.492.5
Middle Tennessee87.988.188.888.3
Old Dominion78.479.379.479.0
Charlotte78.279.179.478.9
Florida Int’l.72.873.173.373.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A102.0102.7102.6102.4
U A B96.396.596.496.4
U T E P84.285.483.784.5
Louisiana Tech83.783.982.383.3
North Texas82.883.183.083.0
Rice81.381.381.481.3
Southern Miss.73.373.773.073.4

CUSA Averages86.086.686.486.3

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame114.2114.9115.9115.0
BYU109.5109.1109.7109.4
Liberty102.9103.4103.6103.3
Army100.5100.4100.2100.4
New Mexico St.72.372.970.872.0
Connecticut69.369.867.168.7
UMass67.266.664.566.1

Indep. Averages90.991.090.390.7


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)98.096.495.396.6
Buffalo92.891.991.792.1
Kent St.91.492.591.091.6
Ohio87.388.187.787.7
Bowling Green76.877.075.076.3
Akron76.975.674.675.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.897.296.397.1
Central Michigan96.995.795.295.9
Ball St.96.696.194.295.6
Eastern Michigan96.695.494.395.4
Western Michigan93.593.792.493.2
Northern Illinois90.989.789.189.9

MAC Averages91.390.889.790.6


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.106.4106.7107.6106.9
Air Force101.0101.2101.8101.3
Colorado St.93.093.093.193.0
Utah St.92.593.492.892.9
Wyoming91.692.092.492.0
New Mexico81.481.379.980.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Nevada102.1103.2102.4102.6
San Diego St.101.7101.4101.2101.4
Fresno St.99.9100.9101.7100.8
San Jose St.94.895.093.894.5
Hawaii91.190.890.590.8
U N L V85.484.985.285.1

MWC Averages95.195.395.295.2


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon112.7113.9114.7113.7
Oregon St.108.2108.5108.5108.4
Washington106.3107.4107.4107.0
Washington St.104.4105.4104.9104.9
California100.0103.0102.4101.8
Stanford100.2100.9100.1100.4

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah117.8118.0118.0117.9
Arizona St.110.8111.4111.7111.3
U C L A108.6108.9109.0108.8
U S C108.0107.8108.4108.1
Colorado98.898.698.298.5
Arizona92.692.792.892.7

Pac-12 Averages105.7106.4106.3106.1


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia134.9135.3136.2135.4
Florida111.1112.2111.6111.6
Kentucky110.0111.2110.5110.6
Tennessee109.8109.7110.2109.9
South Carolina101.4101.0100.4100.9
Missouri99.899.998.999.5
Vanderbilt80.980.479.980.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.6129.9131.2130.6
Texas A&M120.3121.0120.9120.8
Auburn117.1116.6117.4117.0
Ole Miss115.9115.7115.8115.8
Arkansas113.4113.3112.8113.2
L S U111.0111.8112.0111.6
Mississippi St.110.1110.5110.4110.3

SEC Averages111.9112.0112.0112.0


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina110.2108.6110.0109.6
Appalachian St.105.6105.4107.1106.0
Georgia St.95.694.995.495.3
Troy92.692.893.092.8
Georgia Southern86.486.686.086.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana108.6107.2108.3108.0
South Alabama91.891.791.091.5
Arkansas St.82.682.781.882.4
Texas St.82.981.281.581.9
UL-Monroe80.179.978.879.6

Sun Averages93.693.193.393.3

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.0
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.4
4Pac-12106.1
5Atlantic Coast105.1
6American Athletic96.9
7Mountain West95.2
8Sun Belt93.3
9Independents90.7
10Mid-American90.6
11Conference USA86.3

Playoff and Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSAKent St.
CureAir ForceCoastal Carolina
BocaMemphisFlorida Atlantic
New MexicoUTEPFresno St.
IndependenceBYUMarshall
Lending TreeCentral MichiganAppalachian St.
L. A.San Diego St.USC
New OrleansUABLouisiana
Myrtle BeachMiddle TennesseeMiami (O)
Famous Idaho PotatoNorthern IllinoisBoise St.
FriscoSan Jose St.Western Michigan
Armed ForcesWashington St.Army
GasparillaFloridaHouston
HawaiiCentral FloridaNevada
CamelliaBall St.Troy
Quick LaneEastern MichiganWyoming
MilitaryLouisvilleEast Carolina
BirminghamLibertyWestern Kentucky
First ResponderSyracuseOregon St.
LibertyWest VirginiaMissouri
HolidayVirginiaUCLA
Guaranteed RateMarylandTexas
FenwaySMUBoston College
PinstripeClemsonMinnesota
Cheez-ItMiami (Fla.)Iowa St.
AlamoBaylorUtah
Duke’s MayoWake ForestMississippi St.
Music CityPenn St.Tennessee
Las VegasPurdueArizona St.
Tax Slayer GatorPittsburghArkansas
Tony The Tiger SunNorth CarolinaWashington
ArizonaToledoUtah St.
CitrusWisconsinOle Miss
OutbackIowaKentucky
TexasKansas St.Auburn
PeachNorth Carolina St.Cincinnati
FiestaNotre DameMichigan
RoseOregonMichigan St.
SugarOklahoma St.Texas A&M
CottonOhio St.Oklahoma
OrangeGeorgiaAlabama
ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

Fire The Coach!

The firing of football coaches began early this year. Quick openings at USC, Connecticut, Georgia Southern, LSU, Texas Tech, and TCU plus the firing of Washington State coach Nick Rolovich for failure to obtain the required Covid Vaccine, makes a record seven coaches fired in the middle of a season. If fans in the Sunshine State had their way, two more head coaches would join that list, maybe three if Florida International had a fanbase.

I never publish the over-the-top negative emails, texts, and comments when an upset fan wants to go on a tirade seeking the loss of a coach’s job. Instead, I usually reply privately to the commenter asking him to explain what the coach is not doing that other successful coaches are doing. Usually, the answer is always either play-calling or personnel decisions.

“If Coach Smith had put Billy Jones in at quarterback in September, and sent in longer passing plays, we’d be 9-0 right now,” is a typical type of response. My reply back to them most of the time includes video of the fan’s team and the top team in the country, running virtually the same offense. Whereas. the top team’s QB gets 3.5 seconds to locate a receiver, and he’s passing to three future NFL receivers, the fan’s teams’ QB gets less than 2 seconds to locate a receiver that is months away from selling insurance, teaching at a Middle School, or working at a sports radio station. When the top team plays a Cover 2 Combo defense, their five underneath defenders stick to the other team’s receivers like glue, and the safeties can play a but closer to the line of scrimmage, because they are sprinters that won’t be beaten deep. When the fan’s team uses the same defense, two or three of the underneath defenders lose their assignment, and the safeties have to play another 5 yards off the ball to keep from being beat deep by superior athletes. When the top team runs an inside zone blast play, their offensive line quickly controls the initial defensive surge and then take care of the linebackers. The fan’s team’s offensive line briefly opens a running lane in the first second after the snap, but by the time the running back gets the ball and arrives at the line of scrimmage, he faces a blockade.

How much of football success in a college game is determined by which team has more talent? The correct answer is somewhere between 80 and 90%! As legendary coach John Wooden stated in one of his famous quotes, “The team with the better players almost always wins.” He said that about basketball, and it is even more true in football, where quicker, and stronger means more to the sport’s success than everything else.

Look at the top recruiting classes of the last five seasons. The best cumulative classes and the best teams this year are strongly correlated. It isn’t a perfect one to one, but if your favorite team has had five consecutive top 10 classes, and your buddy’s favorite teas has had five consecutive recruiting classes in the 20-40 range, chances are about 90% that your team is going to beat his team when they play.

Coaching is not a difficult task. 130 head coaches at the collegiate level know how to teach the game to their players. 130 college strength and conditioning coaches know how to get players beefed up. Find 130 people between the ages of 35 and 60 in your neighborhood with driver’s licenses. How much difference is there in driving their cars down the road? I am not talking about speed; I am talking about keeping the car in the proper lane, not running over the kids waiting at the school bus stop, and not wrapping their vehicle around the telephone pole. The differences will be subtle.

Now say that of these 130 drivers in your neighborhood, 20 have brand new 2022 models that almost do the driving for the driver. 30 others have a 2020 or 2021 model that is easy to drive, but unlike the 2022 models above that parallel park for the driver, the driver must do more work on those one and two year old cars. The rest of the drivers have older model cars, and the bottom 30-50 have cars with issues that impair the drivers’ abilities to keep the car on the road as perfectly as those elite 20. Maybe some of the cars have faulty brakes. Others have leaking oil. Some have bald tires, and the steering on some is a bit loose, and the car “floats” a little.

The best driver of the 130 neighbors will have issues dirving the faulty cars. The least competent of the 130 drivers will still parallel park a new 2022 car easily and effortlessly.

College team fans can sometimes be the number one hindrance in a coach’s ability to recruit. Putting Coach Smith on a hot seat and creating a Fire Coach Smith website, accelerates the issue. When Coach Smith is given a private vote of confidence by his school, but the school’s fans and media say his days are numbered, 18 year old kids hear and see this and become hesitant to sign at State. Maybe, it’s just one or two players, but these could be the ones that move the needle in a couple of years. Rival schools quickly let these 4-star and 5-star talents know that State is on the verge of firing Coach Smith, so come to Tech and play for Coach Williams, who just got a major contract extension and could run for Mayor in Techtown and win by a landslide.

Let me use one example about how insane fandom can be. I will use the hometown college team, Vanderbilt. The Commodores have strict academic restrictions on who coaches can recruit. Of the top 1,000 recruits in a season, about 75 have the academic talent to earn admission to the school. Unfortunately, none of these 75 are required to put Vanderbilt on their list of potential colleges. The A+ student with ACT/SAT scores high enough to gain admission to Vanderbilt, or for that matter, Harvard, Yale, Cal Tech, and MIT, frequently uses that intelligence to realize that four years in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, or Columbus, Ohio, will allow him to be a star in the classroom and on the football field. By becoming a star at Alabama or Ohio State, his ticket for life is virtually guaranteed to be a skybox seat with private valet parking.

First year Vanderbilt head football coach Clark Lea faces a near impossible task of trying to recruit enough players in the high three-star range and up to compete in an SEC that is light years tougher than it was 10 years ago. With Oklahoma and Texas headed to the league, the small private school that shares more in common with former SEC member Sewanee and former Big Ten member Chicago than Alabama or Georgia is in an impossible position to succeed. The talent level between Vanderbilt and the next weakest team in the SEC is almost as far apart as the number 13 SEC team is to Alabama and Georgia. Lea has talent that could not win the Conference USA divisions. 20 FCS teams have more talent, and East Tennessee State totally dominated the Commodores in the season opener.

Vanderbilt defeated 1-8 Connecticut, a team that only beat Yale and then just barely, when the Huskies had to use their backup quarterback. The Commodores won the game on a final play field goal by a kicker that had been #2 at Alabama and was not going to see action. That UConn team lost to UMass, a team that was just dominated by Rhode Island.

Lea took over a car that had brake, transmission, steering, and suspension issues along with bald tires and a leaking head gasket. He has to drive on the same street with 13 brand new state of the art smart cars. Yet, there are deluded fans that believe he should be at the head of the motorcade and is to blame for the car not being able to stay in its lane or even start on cold mornings.

The monumental task of trying to build this program into one that can compete for minor bowls once every three years is already suffering from the arrows being publicly shot by a small amount of vocal fans, three of which have sent me emails venting about how Lea cannot coach. Since I do not participate in any of the public sports forums for Vanderbilt athletics, as I basically stopped following the program as a fan over a decade ago, I only see what these fans send me, but I can easily see that when recruits read this scathing criticism on these forums, and both their parents and they do read them, it creates reasonable doubt, and players begin to decommit, which has happened in the last fortnight.

Years ago, I made a public statement on a sports radio show that trying to win SEC football games at Vanderbilt was akin to beating a similarly skilled opponent in chess when he has both queens, and you have nine pawns. These vociferous fans have now robbed Lea of a bishop. Lea will be the coach at Vanderbilt for at least three more years after this season, and a minority of Vanderbilt fans may see their opinions become fact somewhat because the three recruits per year they turn away makes the difference in a couple of wins per year.

If you are a fan of a fledgling football program like Arizona, Kansas, or Vanderbilt, anything you can legally do to enhance your school’s recruiting efforts should be the obvious way to support your school other than with your checkbook. Successful recruiting is the only way a school can overcome bad times and improve to mediocre to decent to above average to really good. In the SEC of the mid 2020’s, Vanderbilt may face a situation similar to what Sewanee and Chicago faced in the late 1930’s. The task for Coach Lea is already close to impossible; if you root for the Commodores, don’t remove the “close.”

October 24, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 28-30, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Coastal CarolinaTroy22.920.822.8
East CarolinaSouth Florida12.112.013.3
TulsaNavy9.910.39.4
NevadaUNLV17.019.218.1
WisconsinIowa-2.0-1.6-1.8
BuffaloBowling Green24.923.925.7
Wake ForestDuke24.523.125.8
Michigan St.Michigan-2.3-3.3-3.6
North Carolina St.Louisville10.29.88.7
SyracuseBoston College1.11.11.0
Georgia SouthernGeorgia St.-6.4-5.5-6.4
West VirginiaIowa St.-5.6-5.9-7.7
MarylandIndiana3.52.51.2
Florida AtlanticUTEP13.814.215.5
PittsburghMiami (Fla.)2.84.63.5
IllinoisRutgers3.82.34.2
NorthwesternMinnesota-6.9-7.4-9.0
TempleCentral Florida-16.2-14.2-17.2
Georgia TechVirginia Tech0.01.31.4
ClemsonFlorida St.12.312.113.3
LibertyMassachusetts33.834.937.3
RiceNorth Texas3.43.43.5
Utah St.Hawaii1.42.52.0
BYUVirginia4.22.54.1
UtahUCLA7.16.66.2
Arizona St.Washington St.15.515.115.7
CaliforniaOregon St.-8.5-4.9-6.2
USCArizona24.725.025.9
San Jose St.Wyoming7.57.05.1
OregonColorado15.416.818.3
MarshallFlorida Int’l.20.119.419.5
Oklahoma St.Kansas32.935.037.4
Old DominionLouisiana Tech-8.7-8.3-6.8
LouisianaTexas St.26.426.727.7
Middle TennesseeSouthern Miss.12.812.113.8
NebraskaPurdue6.97.65.8
VanderbiltMissouri-18.6-19.6-19.2
Kansas St.TCU-0.80.3-0.7
Mississippi St.Kentucky-0.6-2.2-1.9
OklahomaTexas Tech21.920.021.8
Ohio St.Penn St.19.919.319.3
HoustonSMU2.81.32.2
BaylorTexas-2.4-1.2-2.4
AuburnOle Miss3.32.73.3
Florida (N)Georgia-17.7-16.7-18.5
TulaneCincinnati-23.8-24.7-25.3
Appalachian St.Louisiana-Monroe26.225.529.0
South AlabamaArkansas St.8.98.48.5
Western KentuckyCharlotte10.911.410.9
Colorado St.Boise St.-6.4-5.9-6.6
Notre DameNorth Carolina7.48.07.3
StanfordWashington1.71.30.5
San Diego St.Fresno St.5.13.22.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia134.8
2Alabama131.6
3Ohio St.130.9
4Oklahoma121.2
5Iowa St.120.7
6Cincinnati120.2
7Texas A&M118.6
8Auburn117.4
9Ole Miss117.2
10Florida117.1
11Iowa116.2
12Texas116.1
13Michigan114.9
14Notre Dame114.8
15Penn St.114.4
16Clemson114.2
17Arizona St.114.0
18Utah113.6
19Oklahoma St.113.5
20Arkansas113.0
21Kentucky112.9
22Oregon112.4
23Baylor112.1
24U S C111.6
25Wisconsin111.4
26Oregon St.111.3
27West Virginia111.3
28NC State111.1
29Coastal Carolina110.8
30T C U110.6
31Pittsburgh110.4
32Michigan St.110.3
33North Carolina110.3
34L S U110.2
35Nebraska110.0
36Wake Forest110.0
37U C L A109.9
38Miami (Fla.)109.8
39Tennessee108.8
40Mississippi St.108.4
41Minnesota108.1
42BYU107.6
43Louisiana107.3
44Kansas St.107.2
45Virginia107.0
46Washington106.7
47Purdue106.2
48Stanford104.9
49Florida St.104.6
50Louisville104.5
51SMU104.4
52Appalachian St.104.2
53Houston104.0
54Boise St.103.6
55Texas Tech103.0
56San Diego St.102.9
57Virginia Tech102.4
58Indiana102.4
59Fresno St.102.2
60Liberty101.8
61California101.8
62Maryland101.8
63Nevada101.7
64Boston College101.7
65Washington St.101.6
66U T S A101.6
67Air Force101.1
68Missouri100.4
69Georgia Tech100.4
70Army100.1
71Syracuse99.8
72UCF99.5
73East Carolina98.6
74Colorado98.6
75Northwestern97.8
76Miami (Ohio)97.8
77Toledo97.5
78South Carolina97.1
79Illinois96.6
80U A B96.3
81Ball St.96.3
82Rutgers96.2
83Tulsa95.5
84Buffalo95.4
85Florida Atlantic95.0
86Colorado St.94.8
87Eastern Michigan94.6
88Western Michigan94.5
89Central Michigan94.3
90Marshall94.2
91San Jose St.94.0
92Georgia St.93.8
93Memphis93.3
94Tulane93.1
95Hawaii92.8
96Troy91.7
97Kent St.91.3
98South Alabama90.9
99Utah St.90.7
100Wyoming90.5
101Northern Illinois89.8
102Western Kentucky89.7
103Arizona89.3
104USF89.1
105Navy88.7
106Middle Tennessee88.6
107Duke87.5
108Ohio86.3
109Georgia Southern86.2
110Louisiana Tech85.2
111U N L V85.1
112Arkansas St.84.8
113U T E P83.5
114Texas St.83.4
115New Mexico82.4
116Rice81.8
117Kansas81.4
118Charlotte81.1
119Temple81.1
120North Texas80.3
121UL-Monroe80.3
122Vanderbilt79.2
123Southern Miss.78.2
124Florida Int’l.77.5
125Old Dominion75.2
126Akron74.6
127Bowling Green73.6
128New Mexico St.72.0
129UMass69.0
130Connecticut68.3

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati119.7119.3121.7120.2
SMU104.0104.4104.9104.4
Houston104.3103.2104.6104.0
UCF99.398.3100.999.5
East Carolina98.397.899.698.6
Tulsa95.695.695.495.5
Memphis92.993.293.893.3
Tulane93.492.093.893.1
USF89.288.889.489.1
Navy88.788.389.188.7
Temple80.681.681.181.1

AAC Averages96.996.697.797.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson113.7113.7115.0114.2
NC State111.2110.8111.2111.1
Wake Forest110.0109.5110.4110.0
Florida St.104.4104.6104.7104.6
Louisville104.0103.9105.5104.5
Boston College101.6101.7101.8101.7
Syracuse99.799.999.899.8

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh110.0110.8110.6110.4
North Carolina109.7109.8111.3110.3
Miami (Fla.)110.2109.2110.1109.8
Virginia106.6107.7106.7107.0
Virginia Tech103.2102.1102.0102.4
Georgia Tech100.2100.5100.4100.4
Duke87.588.486.687.5

ACC Averages105.1105.2105.4105.3
Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma122.2120.3121.1121.2
Iowa St.121.2119.8120.9120.7
Texas117.0115.3116.0116.1
Oklahoma St.113.7113.5113.3113.5
Baylor112.6112.1111.6112.1
West Virginia112.7111.0110.2111.3
T C U111.4110.0110.4110.6
Kansas St.107.6107.3106.7107.2
Texas Tech103.2103.4102.3103.0
Kansas83.881.578.981.4

Big 12 Averages110.5109.4109.1109.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.130.3130.3132.0130.9
Michigan114.1115.1115.4114.9
Penn St.113.4114.0115.7114.4
Michigan St.110.3110.3110.4110.3
Indiana102.3102.0102.7102.4
Maryland102.8101.5100.9101.8
Rutgers95.497.295.896.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa115.9115.5117.2116.2
Wisconsin110.9110.8112.3111.4
Nebraska109.6110.0110.3110.0
Minnesota107.2108.0109.1108.1
Purdue105.7105.4107.5106.2
Northwestern97.898.197.697.8
Illinois96.296.597.196.6

Big Ten Averages108.0108.2108.9108.4
Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Florida Atlantic94.295.695.295.0
Marshall94.194.094.694.2
Western Kentucky88.690.290.389.7
Middle Tennessee88.288.389.288.6
Charlotte80.281.281.981.1
Florida Int’l.77.077.678.077.5
Old Dominion74.875.575.475.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A101.2101.9101.7101.6
U A B96.296.496.496.3
Louisiana Tech85.585.884.285.2
U T E P83.484.482.683.5
Rice81.881.881.881.8
North Texas80.480.480.280.3
Southern Miss.77.978.677.978.2

CUSA Averages86.086.586.486.3
FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame114.1114.7115.6114.8
BYU107.8107.2107.8107.6
Liberty101.4101.9102.0101.8
Army100.2100.199.9100.1
New Mexico St.72.373.070.872.0
UMass70.169.567.369.0
Connecticut68.969.466.768.3

Indep. Averages90.790.890.090.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.397.696.697.8
Buffalo96.195.295.095.4
Kent St.91.092.390.791.3
Ohio85.986.886.386.3
Akron76.074.573.574.6
Bowling Green74.174.372.373.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo98.097.696.997.5
Ball St.97.196.894.996.3
Eastern Michigan96.094.693.394.6
Western Michigan94.695.093.794.5
Central Michigan95.494.093.594.3
Northern Illinois90.989.589.089.8

MAC Averages91.290.789.690.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.4103.2104.0103.6
Air Force100.8101.0101.6101.1
Colorado St.94.694.895.094.8
Utah St.90.491.290.690.7
Wyoming90.190.590.990.5
New Mexico82.882.981.482.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.103.1102.7102.8102.9
Fresno St.101.1102.5103.1102.2
Nevada101.0102.4101.7101.7
San Jose St.94.594.593.094.0
Hawaii93.092.792.592.8
U N L V85.584.785.285.1
MWC Averages95.095.395.195.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.4112.5113.4112.4
Oregon St.111.1111.2111.6111.3
Washington106.0107.1107.1106.7
Stanford104.6105.4104.6104.9
California99.7103.3102.4101.8
Washington St.101.1102.1101.6101.6

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Arizona St.113.6114.2114.3114.0
Utah113.6113.6113.5113.6
U S C111.3111.2112.1111.6
U C L A109.5110.0110.2109.9
Colorado98.998.798.198.6
Arizona89.689.289.289.3

Pac-12 Averages105.9106.5106.5106.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia134.3134.5135.6134.8
Florida116.5117.8117.1117.1
Kentucky112.0113.7113.1112.9
Tennessee108.8108.5109.0108.8
Missouri100.5100.899.8100.4
South Carolina97.697.296.697.1
Vanderbilt79.979.278.679.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.6130.9132.4131.6
Texas A&M118.2118.9118.6118.6
Auburn117.5116.8117.8117.4
Ole Miss117.1117.1117.4117.2
Arkansas113.2113.1112.7113.0
L S U109.7110.5110.5110.2
Mississippi St.108.4108.5108.2108.4

SEC Averages111.8112.0112.0111.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina111.4109.6111.4110.8
Appalachian St.103.8103.3105.4104.2
Georgia St.94.293.593.893.8
Troy91.691.891.791.7
Georgia Southern86.386.685.986.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana107.9106.4107.7107.3
South Alabama91.291.190.390.9
Arkansas St.84.985.284.384.8
Texas St.84.582.783.083.4
UL-Monroe80.680.879.480.3

Sun Averages93.693.193.393.3

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.9
2Big 12109.7
3Big Ten108.4
4Pac-12106.3
5Atlantic Coast105.3
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.1
8Sun Belt93.3
9Independents90.5
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.3

Playoff and Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasMarshallToledo
CureSMUCoastal Carolina
BocaLouisiana TechAir Force
New MexicoUTEPNorthern Illinois
IndependenceBYUFlorida Atlantic
Lending TreeWestern MichiganAppalachian St.
L. A.San Diego St.UCLA
New OrleansUTSALouisiana
Myrtle BeachCentral MichiganCharlotte
Famous Idaho PotatoEastern MichiganBoise St.
FriscoNevadaUL-Monroe
Armed ForcesArmyUAB
GasparillaMiddle TennesseeBuffalo
HawaiiCentral FloridaFresno St.
CamelliaKent St.Troy
Quick LaneBall St.Wyoming
MilitaryNorth CarolinaTulsa
BirminghamMemphisLiberty
First ResponderWestern KentuckyTexas Tech
LibertyTexasLSU
HolidayMiami (Fla.)USC
Guaranteed RatePurdueWest Virginia
FenwayHoustonBoston College
PinstripeNorth Carolina St.Penn St.
Cheez-ItWake ForestIowa St.
AlamoBaylorArizona St.
Duke’s MayoClemsonTennessee
Music CityMarylandArkansas
Las VegasWisconsinOregon St.
Tax Slayer GatorVirginiaFlorida
Tony The Tiger SunLouisvilleUtah
ArizonaMiami (O)Utah St.
CitrusIowaOle Miss
OutbackMinnesotaTexas A&M
TexasKansas St.Auburn
PeachPittsburghKentucky
FiestaNotre DameMichigan
RoseOregonMichigan St.
SugarOklahoma St.Alabama
CottonOklahomaOhio St.
OrangeGeorgiaCincinnati
ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

NCAA Strikes Out On New Overtime Rule

Did you watch the Penn State-Illinois game Saturday?  It was tied 10-10 after 60 minutes of excellent defensive football.  The Illini shut down the Penn State passing game while controlling the clock by running and running and more running.

Both teams scored field goals in the first two overtimes to make the score 16-16.  The new overtime rule states that starting with the third overtime, both teams get a two-point conversion attempt.  If the score remains tied, then successive two-point conversion attempts are taken until one team scores and the other team does not.

Additionally, after the first overtime, there are no more coin flips.  The teams rotate the choice.  And, what happens is the home team always wants to play on the side of the field where the student body cheers in the end zone, while the opponent wants to play at the other end of the field.  After each overtime, the players, officials, chain gang, and hundreds of fans must make the 100-yard walk to the other end of the field.

It’s no longer much of a secret that making two-point conversions is about as difficult as making 55-yard field goals.  That became a huge problem yesterday in Happy Valley, Pennsylvania.  Penn State and Illinois could not convert their two-point conversion attempts.  Overtimes three, four, five, six, and seven produced 10 consecutive botched conversions.  As each overtime ended, everybody had to move to the other end of the field, and the longer into this mess it continued, the big tubby linemen began to walk at a snail’s pace to get back.

Illinois finally scored in the eighth overtime, but then Penn State did the same forcing a ninth overtime.  The game was finally decided when the Nittany Lions missed their ninth overtime attempt, while Illinois scored to win the game 20-18.

In the amount of time it took to play the nine overtimes, another game that kicked off at the same time as the first overtime began the second quarter of their game just before the nine-overtime game concluded.  In other words, it took a little longer than one full quarter to play the nine overtimes.

Imagine a game in late November with sloppy playing conditions where regulation ends in a tie game, and nobody can score in the overtimes for 10 or more of these ridiculous two-point conversion attempts.  If it took nine yesterday, there is a possibility that somebody else will need 10 or more.

The NCAA must re-evaluate this fiasco of a rule.  In fact, the NCAA needs to have a constitutional convention and modify a lot of the rules to get into the 21st century.  Here is our suggestion for rules changes–use the same rules the NFL uses.  To wit:

1. Overtime should be one, 10-minute period with a touchdown on the first possession winning the game, but a field goal allowing the other team to have a possession.  If the game is still tied after 10 minutes, it stands as a tie game.

2. Intentional pass interference is now a definite defensive option to stop a big gain.  Players will even deliver cheap shots knowing that giving up 15 yards beats giving up 50 or a touchdown.  Because passing the ball is tantamount to winning, the pass interference penalty needs to go back to giving the offense the ball at the spot of interference, be it 12 yards past the line or 50.

3. The clock should not stop on first downs.  That rule was in effect when chain gangs were the only way to spot the ball.  In today’s world, the ball can be spotted quickly via computerization and an extra referee.  Let the clock move on first downs.

4. Add the two-minute warning.  In lieu of the clock stopping on first downs, add a two-minute warning to both halves.  That is when teams need the clock to stop, and the networks can get an extra commercial break before halftime or the end of the game.

5. Allow a player that falls to the ground with the ball but having been untouched by the defense to get up and advance.  Why should poor playing conditions be responsible for making a defensive stop?  

Here’s one additional rule change that should be considered.  Targeting happens too much these days when the ball carrier lowers his head to invite the targeting penalty.  This is almost like the flop in basketball.  The rule needs to be changed so that when the ball carrier initiates the targeting by putting himself into position for any tackle to become a potential targeting penalty, the offense should be penalized 15 yards for a personal foul.

Additionally, ejection is much too harsh of a penalty.  How about making targeting a 20-yard penalty and automatic first down, and also allowing it to supersede the half the distance to the goal and be allowed to go all the way to the 1-yard line if the offense is in the Red Zone?  A penalty in one game shouldn’t be allowed to stay in effect for a half of another game.  This may be the most ridiculous rule in college football history.  Think of a basketball game where a Syracuse player commits an intentional foul on a Connecticut player late in the second half of a game, and then three days later when Syracuse plays Duke, Duke gets to start the game with 2 foul shots from the intentional foul three days back.

December 1, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 1, 2019

This Week’s Conference Championships Spreads

All times given are Eastern Standard

Friday, December 6

Conference

Pac-12

North Division

Oregon 10-2

South Division

Utah 11-1

Site:

Santa Clara

Time:

8:00 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Utah by 7.1

Mean:

Utah by 6.3

Bias:

Utah by 6.8

 

 

Predicted Score:

Utah 27

Oregon 20

 

 

Saturday, December 7

 

Conference

Sun Belt

East Division

Appalachian St. 11-1

West Division

Louisiana 10-2

Site:

Boone, NC (Appy St.)

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ESPN

PiRate:

Appy St. by 9.2

Mean:

Appy St. by 8.4

Bias:

Appy St. by 9.1

Predicted Score:

Appalachian St. 35

Louisiana 26

 

 

Conference

Mid-American

East Division

Miami (O) 7-5

West Division

Central Michigan 8-4

Site:

Detroit

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ESPN 2

PiRate:

CMU by 2.0

Mean:

CMU by 3.9

Bias:

CMU by 3.1

 

 

Predicted Score:

Central Mich. 31

Miami (O) 28

 

 

Conference

Big 12

1st Place

Oklahoma 11-1

2nd Place

Baylor 11-1

Site:

Arlington, TX

Time:

12 Noon

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Oklahoma by 5.2

Mean:

Oklahoma by 4.6

Bias:

Oklahoma by 5.4

 

 

Predicted Score:

Oklahoma 38

Baylor 33

 

 

Conference

Conference USA

East Division

Florida Atlantic 9-3

West Division

UAB 9-3

Site:

Boca Raton, FL (FAU)

Time:

1:30 PM

TV:

CBSSN

PiRate:

FAU by 11.9

Mean:

FAU by 10.0

Bias:

FAU by 12.2

 

 

Predicted Score:

Florida Atlantic 28

UAB 17

 

 

Conference

American Athletic

East Division

Cincinnati 10-2

West Division

Memphis 11-1

Site:

Memphis

Time:

3:30 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Memphis by 6.9

Mean:

Memphis by 7.8

Bias:

Memphis by 8.1

 

 

Predicted Score:

Memphis 35

Cincinnati 27

 

 

Conference

Mountain West

Mountain Division

Boise St. 11-1

West Division

Hawaii 9-4

Site:

Boise, ID

Time:

4:00 PM

TV:

ESPN

PiRate:

Boise St. by 16.9

Mean:

Boise St. by 15.7

Bias:

Boise St. by 18.0

 

 

Predicted Score:

Boise St. 48

Hawaii 31

 

 

Conference

Southeastern

East Division

Georgia 11-1

West Division

LSU 12-0

Site:

Atlanta

Time:

4:00 PM

TV:

CBS

PiRate:

LSU by 5.6

Mean:

LSU by 5.3

Bias:

LSU by 5.5

Predicted Score:

LSU 35

Georgia 30

 

 

Conference

Atlantic Coast

Atlantic Division

Clemson 12-0

Coastal Division

Virginia 9-3

Site:

Charlotte

Time:

7:30 PM

TV:

ABC

PiRate:

Clemson by 30.2

Mean:

Clemson by 28.3

Bias:

Clemson by 30.9

 

 

Predicted Score:

Clemson 40

Virginia 10

 

 

Conference

Big Ten

East Division

Ohio St. 12-0

West Division

Wisconsin 10-2

Site:

Indianapolis

Time:

8:00 PM

TV:

Fox

PiRate:

Ohio St. by 19.4

Mean:

Ohio St. by 18.8

Bias:

Ohio St. by 20.5

 

 

Predicted Score:

Ohio St. 44

Wisconsin 24

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

141.9

141.1

143.0

142.0

2

Clemson

138.8

137.0

140.0

138.6

3

L S U

135.5

133.5

135.7

134.9

4

Georgia

128.4

126.7

128.7

127.9

5

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

6

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

8

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

9

Oklahoma

122.9

122.4

122.5

122.6

10

Wisconsin

122.5

122.3

122.6

122.5

11

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

12

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

13

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

14

Oregon

119.5

119.4

120.2

119.7

15

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

16

Baylor

117.7

117.8

117.1

117.5

17

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

18

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

19

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

20

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

21

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

22

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

23

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

24

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

25

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

26

Memphis

110.2

110.6

111.4

110.7

27

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

30

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

31

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

32

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

33

Appalachian St.

109.6

109.1

109.0

109.2

34

Virginia

108.6

108.7

109.1

108.8

35

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

36

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

37

Boise St.

107.9

108.2

108.0

108.0

38

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

39

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

40

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

41

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

42

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

43

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

44

Cincinnati

105.8

105.3

105.8

105.6

45

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

46

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

47

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

48

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

49

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

50

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

51

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

52

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

53

Louisiana

102.9

103.2

102.4

102.8

54

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

55

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

56

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

57

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

58

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

59

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

60

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

61

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

62

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

63

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

64

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

65

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

67

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

68

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

69

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

70

Florida Atlantic

98.5

98.5

99.6

98.9

71

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

72

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

73

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

74

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

75

Hawaii

97.0

98.4

96.4

97.3

76

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

77

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

78

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

79

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

80

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

81

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

82

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

83

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

84

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

85

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

86

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

87

Central Michigan

92.3

93.1

93.5

92.9

88

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

89

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

90

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

91

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

93

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

94

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

95

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

96

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

97

U A B

89.1

91.0

89.9

90.0

98

Miami (Ohio)

90.3

89.2

90.4

90.0

99

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

100

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

101

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

102

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

103

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

104

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

105

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

106

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

107

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

108

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

109

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

110

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

111

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

112

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

114

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

115

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

116

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

117

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

118

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

119

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

120

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

121

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

122

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

123

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

124

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

125

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

126

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

127

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

128

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

129

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.6

111.1

112.1

111.6

6-2

9-3

Cincinnati

105.8

105.3

105.8

105.6

7-1

10-2

Temple

99.4

99.3

100.5

99.7

5-3

8-4

South Florida

88.8

89.3

88.9

89.0

2-6

4-8

East Carolina

82.4

83.6

82.3

82.8

1-7

4-8

Connecticut

71.3

73.9

70.8

72.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

110.2

110.6

111.4

110.7

7-1

11-1

SMU

104.8

104.7

105.4

105.0

6-2

10-2

Navy

100.3

102.6

101.6

101.5

7-1

9-2

Tulane

99.6

100.2

100.0

99.9

3-5

6-6

Houston

94.8

95.7

96.4

95.6

2-6

4-8

Tulsa

94.1

95.1

95.4

94.9

2-6

4-8

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

138.8

137.0

140.0

138.6

8-0

12-0

Florida St.

104.8

104.6

104.9

104.8

4-4

6-6

Wake Forest

103.1

102.4

103.3

102.9

4-4

8-4

Boston College

101.9

101.4

102.0

101.8

4-4

6-6

Louisville

100.2

99.8

99.9

100.0

5-3

7-5

Syracuse

99.7

98.9

98.9

99.2

2-6

5-7

North Carolina St.

92.3

91.4

91.6

91.8

1-7

4-8

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia Tech

110.5

110.5

111.2

110.7

5-3

8-4

Virginia

108.6

108.7

109.1

108.8

6-2

9-3

North Carolina

107.7

107.6

108.4

107.9

4-4

6-6

Miami (Fla.)

104.5

104.0

105.1

104.5

4-4

6-6

Pittsburgh

102.4

101.8

102.3

102.2

4-4

7-5

Duke

99.4

98.6

99.1

99.0

3-5

5-7

Georgia Tech

90.2

88.9

90.2

89.8

2-6

3-9

ACC Averages

104.6

104.0

104.7

104.4

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.9

122.4

122.5

122.6

8-1

11-1

Baylor

117.7

117.8

117.1

117.5

8-1

11-1

Iowa St.

112.9

113.2

112.7

112.9

5-4

7-5

Kansas St.

112.4

112.3

112.3

112.3

5-4

8-4

Texas

111.1

111.4

111.0

111.2

5-4

7-5

Oklahoma St.

110.3

110.8

109.7

110.3

5-4

8-4

T C U

107.7

109.7

107.9

108.4

3-6

5-7

Texas Tech

104.6

104.9

103.7

104.4

2-7

4-8

West Virginia

102.7

102.7

102.3

102.5

3-6

5-7

Kansas

93.7

94.7

93.8

94.1

1-8

3-9

Big 12 Averages

109.6

110.0

109.3

109.6

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

141.9

141.1

143.0

142.0

9-0

12-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

125.9

125.3

6-3

9-3

Penn St.

121.4

120.5

121.4

121.1

7-2

10-2

Indiana

109.9

108.9

109.5

109.4

5-4

8-4

Michigan St.

107.7

106.8

106.7

107.1

4-5

6-6

Maryland

93.5

92.6

92.0

92.7

1-8

3-9

Rutgers

85.1

84.6

83.6

84.4

0-9

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

122.5

122.3

122.6

122.5

7-2

10-2

Iowa

118.4

116.9

118.0

117.8

6-3

9-3

Minnesota

117.2

116.8

116.5

116.8

7-2

10-2

Nebraska

106.3

106.5

105.6

106.1

3-6

5-7

Purdue

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.9

3-6

4-8

Northwestern

103.4

102.6

102.1

102.7

1-8

3-9

Illinois

102.2

102.8

101.8

102.3

4-5

6-6

Big Ten Averages

111.4

110.8

110.9

111.0

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.5

98.5

99.6

98.9

7-1

9-3

Western Kentucky

95.3

95.9

96.5

95.9

6-2

8-4

Marshall

92.0

91.7

92.5

92.1

6-2

8-4

Florida Int’l.

89.1

89.0

89.3

89.1

4-4

6-6

Middle Tennessee

88.9

88.5

89.2

88.9

3-5

4-8

Charlotte

87.9

88.3

88.6

88.3

5-3

7-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.5

73.2

73.4

0-8

1-11

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

93.9

94.1

93.7

93.9

6-2

9-3

Southern Miss.

93.7

92.6

93.9

93.4

5-3

7-5

U A B

89.1

91.0

89.9

90.0

6-2

9-3

North Texas

86.3

86.0

86.2

86.2

3-5

4-8

Rice

82.4

83.7

82.4

82.8

3-5

3-9

Texas-San Antonio

76.1

77.9

76.5

76.8

3-5

4-8

U T E P

68.5

71.8

68.6

69.6

0-8

1-11

 

 

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.8

119.9

121.0

120.6

x

10-2

BYU

102.1

102.3

101.6

102.0

x

7-5

Army

94.1

94.3

93.4

94.0

x

5-7

Liberty

89.5

90.8

89.8

90.0

x

7-5

New Mexico St.

75.6

77.3

75.2

76.0

x

2-10

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

x

1-11

Indep. Averages

89.8

90.5

89.4

89.9

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

98.4

97.6

98.9

98.3

5-3

6-6

Buffalo

94.8

95.4

96.2

95.4

5-3

7-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.3

89.2

90.4

90.0

6-2

7-5

Kent St.

89.0

89.1

89.8

89.3

5-3

6-6

Bowling Green

68.1

67.5

67.8

67.8

2-6

3-9

Akron

62.8

62.5

61.7

62.3

0-8

0-12

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

97.6

96.6

97.1

97.1

5-3

7-5

Central Michigan

92.3

93.1

93.5

92.9

6-2

8-4

Ball St.

91.0

90.7

91.2

91.0

4-4

5-7

Eastern Michigan

87.8

88.0

88.2

88.0

3-5

6-6

Northern Illinois

87.5

86.9

87.8

87.4

4-4

5-7

Toledo

84.0

83.9

84.1

84.0

3-5

6-6

MAC Averages

87.0

86.7

87.2

87.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

107.9

108.2

108.0

108.0

8-0

11-1

Air Force

104.6

106.4

105.6

105.5

7-1

10-2

Wyoming

98.6

100.3

98.9

99.3

4-4

7-5

Utah St.

96.8

96.5

97.1

96.8

6-2

7-5

Colorado St.

88.0

91.2

88.7

89.3

3-5

4-8

New Mexico

79.7

81.7

78.6

80.0

0-8

2-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.2

97.6

98.1

5-3

9-3

Hawaii

97.0

98.4

96.4

97.3

5-3

9-4

Fresno St.

92.4

93.4

92.2

92.7

2-6

4-8

Nevada

89.8

91.3

89.1

90.1

4-4

7-5

San Jose St.

87.9

89.7

88.1

88.6

2-6

5-7

U N L V

83.7

85.4

83.5

84.2

2-6

4-8

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.6

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

119.5

119.4

120.2

119.7

8-1

10-2

Washington

113.1

112.8

114.0

113.3

4-5

7-5

Washington St.

110.0

109.2

110.0

109.7

3-6

6-6

California

103.7

103.5

104.2

103.8

4-5

7-5

Oregon St.

101.2

102.1

101.5

101.6

4-5

5-7

Stanford

101.6

100.6

100.8

101.0

3-6

4-8

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

8-1

11-1

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

7-2

8-4

Arizona St.

107.9

107.3

108.1

107.8

4-5

7-5

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

3-6

5-7

U C L A

98.7

98.3

98.2

98.4

4-5

4-8

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.8

96.9

2-7

4-8

Pac-12 Averages

107.4

107.2

107.7

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

128.4

126.7

128.7

127.9

7-1

11-1

Florida

125.9

123.5

125.8

125.0

6-2

10-2

Kentucky

112.4

111.3

111.6

111.8

3-5

7-5

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

5-3

7-5

Missouri

109.9

107.5

108.5

108.6

3-5

6-6

South Carolina

109.0

107.1

108.0

108.0

3-5

4-8

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-7

3-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

135.5

133.5

135.7

134.9

8-0

12-0

Alabama

128.8

125.7

129.1

127.9

6-2

10-2

Auburn

122.9

121.1

122.7

122.2

5-3

9-3

Texas A&M

115.1

112.5

113.3

113.7

4-4

7-5

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.6

113.3

109.9

3-5

6-6

Ole Miss

107.8

106.9

108.1

107.6

2-6

4-8

Arkansas

88.0

87.8

87.3

87.7

0-8

2-10

SEC Averages

114.1

112.2

113.8

113.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

109.6

109.1

109.0

109.2

7-1

11-1

Georgia Southern

99.0

99.1

98.7

99.0

5-3

7-5

Georgia St.

89.3

90.1

88.4

89.3

4-4

7-5

Troy

89.6

89.8

88.1

89.2

3-5

5-7

Coastal Carolina

86.9

87.8

86.3

87.0

2-6

5-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

102.9

103.2

102.4

102.8

7-1

10-2

Arkansas St.

90.0

90.4

89.7

90.0

5-3

7-5

Louisiana-Monroe

86.7

87.4

86.4

86.9

4-4

5-7

Texas St.

79.2

79.9

78.9

79.3

2-6

3-9

South Alabama

77.0

79.5

77.0

77.8

1-7

2-10

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.1

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.4

2

Big Ten

111.0

3

Big 12

109.6

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.4

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.2

8

Sun Belt

91.1

9

Independents

89.9

10

Conference USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.0

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

Ohio St.

2

LSU

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Oklahoma

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Boise St.

3

Appalachian St.

4

Cincinnati

5

Louisiana

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

One is the loneliest team that you’ll ever know–79 Bowl Eligible Teams For 78 Spots

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Louisiana Tech]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

UAB

Air Force

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Miami (O)

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Western Kentucky

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

[Florida Int’l.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Florida St.

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Boston College

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Michigan

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

[Liberty]

[Nevada]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Oklahoma

Memphis

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Southern Miss.

[Kent St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Illinois

Music City

SEC

ACC

Kentucky

Indiana

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia

Alabama

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Marshall]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

California

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

Mississippi St.

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Louisville

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[Ohio]

Wyoming

Lending Tree

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

LSU

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Utah

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Clemson

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 24, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:48 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Akron

Ohio

-27.7

-27.1

-29.3

Northern Illinois

Western Michigan

-9.4

-9.2

-9.0

 

 

Thursday

November 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Mississippi St.

Ole Miss

3.7

1.2

7.5

 

 

Friday

November 29

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arkansas

Missouri

-20.0

-17.5

-19.7

Ball St.

Miami (O)

1.4

2.0

1.1

Buffalo

Bowling Green

27.4

28.6

29.1

Central Florida

South Florida

24.1

22.7

24.1

Central Michigan

Toledo

5.0

5.7

5.7

Colorado St.

Boise St.

-18.1

-15.0

-18.0

Eastern Michigan

Kent St.

3.3

3.6

3.3

Memphis

Cincinnati

7.2

7.9

8.2

Nebraska

Iowa

-9.5

-7.8

-10.2

South Alabama

Arkansas St.

-13.9

-11.7

-14.0

TCU

West Virginia

10.3

12.6

11.2

Texas

Texas Tech

6.6

6.5

7.0

Troy

Appalachian St.

-13.8

-12.7

-14.5

Virginia

Virginia Tech

-1.7

-1.8

-2.5

Washington

Washington St.

2.2

2.4

2.6

 

 

Saturday

November 30

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Air Force

Wyoming

7.8

7.7

8.3

Arizona St.

Arizona

12.6

12.5

13.6

Auburn

Alabama

-5.0

-3.7

-5.9

Coastal Carolina

Texas St.

10.9

11.6

11.3

Duke

Miami (Fla.)

-4.6

-5.0

-6.1

East Carolina

Tulsa

-6.6

-5.9

-7.9

Florida

Florida St.

22.5

20.0

22.1

Florida Atlantic

Southern Miss.

6.6

7.7

7.3

Georgia Southern

Georgia St.

7.3

6.2

7.5

Georgia Tech

Georgia

-34.6

-34.0

-34.5

Hawaii

Army

4.6

5.7

4.3

Houston

Navy

0.9

-0.5

1.8

Illinois

Northwestern

4.6

6.4

6.1

Kansas

Baylor

-14.0

-13.1

-13.3

Kansas St.

Iowa St.

-0.4

-1.2

-0.7

Kentucky

Louisville

9.2

8.1

8.1

Liberty

New Mexico St.

16.5

15.7

16.8

Louisiana

UL-Monroe

19.5

19.3

19.7

Louisiana Tech

Texas-San Antonio

20.7

19.1

20.5

LSU

Texas A&M

16.0

15.2

16.6

Marshall

Florida Int’l.

6.3

6.3

7.2

Michigan

Ohio St.

-9.6

-9.9

-10.1

Michigan St.

Maryland

18.6

18.8

19.7

Minnesota

Wisconsin

1.3

1.3

0.9

Nevada

UNLV

8.8

8.8

8.7

New Mexico

Utah St.

-14.8

-12.0

-16.7

North Carolina St.

North Carolina

-10.4

-11.2

-11.6

North Texas

UAB

0.3

-2.1

-0.4

Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma

-10.2

-8.8

-10.0

Old Dominion

Charlotte

-12.0

-12.2

-12.6

Oregon

Oregon St.

20.2

19.2

21.2

Penn St.

Rutgers

42.0

41.6

43.5

Pittsburgh

Boston College

5.9

6.0

6.1

Purdue

Indiana

-4.7

-3.9

-5.1

San Diego St.

BYU

-2.5

-1.0

-2.4

San Jose St.

Fresno St.

-3.4

-2.6

-3.4

SMU

Tulane

6.7

5.9

6.5

South Carolina

Clemson

-27.0

-26.9

-29.2

Stanford

Notre Dame

-15.5

-15.4

-16.3

Syracuse

Wake Forest

-0.6

-0.7

-1.8

Temple

Connecticut

30.4

27.2

32.2

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

19.4

20.7

20.4

UCLA

California

-1.9

-1.9

-2.7

Utah

Colorado

31.2

30.4

31.8

UTEP

Rice

-12.2

-9.6

-11.5

Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee

8.1

9.5

9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

2

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

3

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

4

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

5

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

6

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

7

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

8

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

9

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

10

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

11

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

12

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

13

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

14

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

15

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

16

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

17

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

18

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

19

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

20

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

21

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

22

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

23

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

24

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

25

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

26

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

27

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

28

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

29

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

30

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

31

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

32

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

33

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

34

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

35

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

36

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

37

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

38

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

39

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

40

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

41

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

42

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

43

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

44

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

45

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

46

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

47

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

48

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

49

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

50

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

51

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

52

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

53

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

54

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

55

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

56

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

57

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

58

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

59

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

60

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

61

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

62

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

63

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

64

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

65

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

66

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

67

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

68

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

69

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

70

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

71

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

72

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

74

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

75

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

76

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

77

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

78

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

79

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

80

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

81

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

82

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

83

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

84

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

85

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

86

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

87

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

88

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

89

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

90

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

91

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

92

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

93

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

94

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

95

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

96

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

97

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

98

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

99

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

100

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

101

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

102

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

103

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

104

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

105

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

106

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

107

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

108

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

109

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

111

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

112

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

113

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

114

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

115

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

116

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

117

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

118

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

119

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

122

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

123

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

124

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

125

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

126

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

127

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

128

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

129

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

130

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

111.8

111.4

Cincinnati

105.9

105.5

106.0

105.8

Temple

99.3

99.0

100.5

99.6

South Florida

88.9

89.6

89.2

89.2

East Carolina

83.7

85.1

83.7

84.2

Connecticut

71.4

74.2

70.8

72.1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Memphis

110.1

110.4

111.2

110.6

SMU

104.3

104.1

104.7

104.4

Tulane

100.1

100.8

100.7

100.5

Navy

98.6

100.9

99.6

99.7

Houston

96.5

97.4

98.4

97.4

Tulsa

92.8

93.6

94.0

93.5

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Clemson

138.0

136.1

139.2

137.8

Florida St.

104.8

104.8

105.0

104.9

Wake Forest

103.2

102.5

103.5

103.1

Louisville

102.3

102.1

102.3

102.2

Boston College

100.7

100.1

100.6

100.5

Syracuse

99.6

98.8

98.7

99.0

North Carolina St.

94.2

93.3

93.6

93.7

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Virginia Tech

111.3

111.4

112.3

111.7

Virginia

108.1

108.1

108.3

108.2

North Carolina

106.1

106.0

106.7

106.3

Miami (Fla.)

106.0

105.6

106.9

106.2

Pittsburgh

103.6

103.1

103.7

103.5

Duke

98.4

97.5

97.8

97.9

Georgia Tech

91.1

89.9

91.3

90.8

ACC Averages

104.8

104.2

105.0

104.7

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oklahoma

122.3

121.6

121.7

121.9

Iowa St.

114.2

114.7

114.2

114.3

Baylor

113.7

113.8

113.1

113.5

Oklahoma St.

110.6

111.3

110.2

110.7

Kansas St.

110.8

110.5

110.5

110.6

Texas

109.9

110.1

109.6

109.9

T C U

108.8

111.0

109.2

109.7

Texas Tech

105.8

106.2

105.1

105.7

West Virginia

101.6

101.4

101.0

101.3

Kansas

96.7

97.7

96.8

97.1

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.5

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio St.

139.8

138.9

140.7

139.8

Michigan

127.2

126.0

127.7

127.0

Penn St.

123.5

122.6

123.5

123.2

Indiana

110.1

109.1

109.9

109.7

Michigan St.

108.9

108.1

108.2

108.4

Maryland

93.3

92.3

91.5

92.4

Rutgers

84.5

84.0

83.0

83.8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Wisconsin

120.7

120.4

120.6

120.6

Minnesota

119.0

118.7

118.5

118.7

Iowa

118.6

117.1

118.4

118.0

Nebraska

106.1

106.3

105.2

105.9

Illinois

104.6

105.4

104.5

104.8

Purdue

103.9

103.7

103.3

103.6

Northwestern

101.5

100.5

99.9

100.7

Big Ten Averages

111.6

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Florida Atlantic

97.9

97.9

98.9

98.2

Western Kentucky

95.4

96.2

96.9

96.2

Marshall

92.2

92.0

93.0

92.4

Florida Int’l.

88.9

88.7

88.8

88.8

Middle Tennessee

88.8

88.2

88.8

88.6

Charlotte

87.7

88.0

88.2

88.0

Old Dominion

73.7

73.8

73.6

73.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana Tech

94.1

94.3

94.1

94.1

Southern Miss.

94.3

93.2

94.6

94.0

U A B

88.8

90.8

89.5

89.7

North Texas

86.6

86.2

86.6

86.5

Rice

82.3

83.3

82.0

82.5

Texas-San Antonio

75.9

77.7

76.1

76.5

U T E P

68.6

72.2

69.0

69.9

CUSA Averages

86.8

87.3

87.2

87.1

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Notre Dame

120.3

119.3

120.4

120.0

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.3

102.6

Army

95.5

95.7

95.0

95.4

Liberty

89.3

90.4

89.4

89.7

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.7

75.6

76.3

Massachusetts

56.7

58.2

55.7

56.9

Indep. Averages

90.0

90.7

89.7

90.1

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Ohio

95.9

95.1

96.4

95.8

Buffalo

93.7

94.3

95.1

94.3

Miami (Ohio)

91.2

90.2

91.5

91.0

Kent St.

88.0

88.0

88.6

88.2

Bowling Green

69.2

68.6

68.9

68.9

Akron

66.8

66.5

65.7

66.3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Western Michigan

98.5

97.6

98.2

98.1

Ball St.

90.1

89.7

90.1

90.0

Central Michigan

89.2

89.9

90.2

89.7

Eastern Michigan

88.8

89.1

89.4

89.1

Toledo

86.7

86.7

87.0

86.8

Northern Illinois

86.6

85.9

86.7

86.4

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.3

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Boise St.

108.5

108.7

108.8

108.7

Air Force

104.1

105.8

105.0

105.0

Wyoming

98.8

100.6

99.2

99.5

Utah St.

96.9

96.4

97.5

96.9

Colorado St.

87.4

90.7

87.9

88.7

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

San Diego St.

97.1

98.7

96.9

97.6

Hawaii

95.6

97.0

94.8

95.8

Fresno St.

92.6

93.6

92.6

92.9

Nevada

90.4

92.0

89.9

90.8

San Jose St.

87.7

89.5

87.7

88.3

U N L V

83.1

84.7

82.7

83.5

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.4

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Oregon

119.7

119.6

120.7

120.0

Washington

112.0

111.6

112.7

112.1

Washington St.

111.4

110.7

111.6

111.2

California

103.4

103.1

103.8

103.4

Oregon St.

101.0

101.9

101.0

101.3

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.1

101.3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Utah

126.8

125.9

127.5

126.7

U S C

111.0

111.6

111.8

111.5

Arizona St.

108.0

107.5

108.5

108.0

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.6

98.8

Colorado

98.6

98.5

98.7

98.6

Arizona

96.9

96.6

96.4

96.6

Pac-12 Averages

107.5

107.2

107.7

107.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Georgia

127.2

125.4

127.3

126.6

Florida

125.9

123.3

125.7

124.9

Tennessee

110.7

110.4

110.1

110.4

Kentucky

110.0

108.7

108.9

109.2

Missouri

110.2

107.7

109.0

109.0

South Carolina

109.5

107.7

108.5

108.6

Vanderbilt

92.8

91.2

91.2

91.7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

L S U

131.3

129.1

131.3

130.6

Alabama

129.1

126.0

129.6

128.2

Auburn

122.6

120.8

122.2

121.9

Texas A&M

118.3

116.9

117.7

117.7

Mississippi St.

109.9

106.6

113.7

110.1

Ole Miss

107.7

106.9

107.7

107.4

Arkansas

87.7

87.6

86.8

87.4

SEC Averages

113.8

112.0

113.5

113.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Appalachian St.

107.5

106.8

106.8

107.0

Georgia Southern

96.7

96.6

96.2

96.5

Georgia St.

90.9

91.9

90.2

91.0

Troy

91.2

91.6

89.8

90.9

Coastal Carolina

87.3

88.4

87.0

87.6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Louisiana

103.8

104.2

103.5

103.8

Arkansas St.

91.7

92.1

91.6

91.8

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.3

85.9

Texas St.

78.8

79.3

78.2

78.8

South Alabama

75.3

77.8

75.1

76.1

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.1

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.5

4

Pac-12

107.5

5

Atlantic Coast

104.7

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.1

10

Conf. USA

87.1

11

Mid-American

87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6

1

Ohio St.

2

LSU

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Memphis

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Appalachian St.

5

Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

————————————–

The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Buffalo

Charlotte

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Miami (O)

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Cincinnati

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC/MWC

BYU

Hawaii

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Marshall]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

North Carolina

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

[Nevada]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Utah

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Western Ky.

TCU

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Central Michigan]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

California

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Liberty]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Air Force

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Florida Int’l.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Utah St.

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Eastern Michigan

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 17, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:58 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

Ohio

-19.2

-18.6

-19.6

Northern Illinois

Eastern Michigan

7.8

7.0

7.7

 

 

Wednesday

November 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo

Toledo

7.2

7.6

7.9

Miami (O)

Akron

28.6

27.9

30.7

 

 

Thursday

November 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

North Carolina St.

-1.4

-2.0

-0.8

 

 

Friday

November 22

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wyoming

Colorado St.

13.6

12.2

13.5

 

 

Saturday

November 23

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Texas St.

32.6

31.4

33.0

Arizona

Utah

-26.6

-25.9

-27.9

Arizona St.

Oregon

-12.5

-13.4

-13.7

Arkansas St.

Georgia Southern

-3.2

-3.0

-3.3

Baylor

Texas

4.9

4.7

4.3

Charlotte

Marshall

-5.1

-4.4

-5.6

Cincinnati

Temple

10.3

10.4

9.5

Colorado

Washington

-14.7

-14.5

-15.9

Connecticut

East Carolina

-10.7

-9.3

-12.1

Florida Int’l.

Miami (Fla.)

-21.9

-21.8

-23.4

Fresno St.

Nevada

9.6

8.9

10.1

Georgia

Texas A&M

12.9

12.8

14.3

Georgia St.

South Alabama

18.7

17.2

18.5

Hawaii

San Diego St.

1.8

1.5

1.0

Indiana

Michigan

-11.4

-10.9

-11.7

Iowa

Illinois

17.8

15.2

18.0

Iowa St.

Kansas

22.7

22.2

23.3

Kent St.

Ball St.

0.0

0.4

0.5

Louisiana

Troy

9.2

8.9

9.8

Louisville

Syracuse

0.9

1.5

1.6

LSU

Arkansas

47.1

45.0

48.0

Maryland

Nebraska

-2.8

-4.4

-3.4

Massachusetts

BYU

-43.3

-42.0

-44.6

Middle Tennessee

Old Dominion

17.3

16.1

16.8

Missouri

Tennessee

3.4

1.0

3.2

Navy

SMU

-4.8

-2.2

-4.6

New Mexico

Air Force

-22.0

-21.4

-24.2

New Mexico St.

UTEP

8.7

6.8

8.1

Northwestern

Minnesota

-14.6

-15.4

-16.0

Notre Dame

Boston College

19.4

18.6

19.2

Ohio St.

Penn St.

19.8

20.0

21.3

Oklahoma

TCU

18.4

15.3

17.6

Rice

North Texas

-4.9

-3.6

-5.7

Rutgers

Michigan St.

-21.5

-20.8

-21.9

South Florida

Memphis

-13.6

-12.8

-14.3

Southern Miss.

Western Kentucky

6.8

4.8

5.6

Stanford

California

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

Texas Tech

Kansas St.

-1.6

-1.1

-2.3

Tulane

Central Florida

-9.5

-8.1

-9.6

Tulsa

Houston

0.6

0.7

0.1

UAB

Louisiana Tech

-4.4

-2.6

-4.1

UL-Monroe

Coastal Carolina

1.4

0.5

0.9

UNLV

San Jose St.

-2.5

-3.0

-3.3

USC

UCLA

12.2

12.9

13.2

Utah St.

Boise St.

-3.6

-4.3

-2.9

UTSA

Florida Atlantic

-19.8

-18.1

-21.3

Virginia

Liberty

18.6

17.4

18.3

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

5.0

5.3

5.6

Wake Forest

Duke

6.2

6.2

6.5

Washington St.

Oregon St.

15.1

13.3

15.7

West Virginia

Oklahoma St.

-5.8

-6.7

-6.0

Wisconsin

Purdue

19.5

19.4

20.0

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Alabama

Western Carolina

56

Auburn

Samford

49

Kentucky

UT-Martin

29

Mississippi St.

Abilene Christian

35

North Carolina

Mercer

38

Vanderbilt

East Tennessee

21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

2

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

3

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

4

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

5

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

8

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

9

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

10

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

11

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

12

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

13

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

14

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

15

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

16

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

17

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

18

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

19

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

20

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

21

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

22

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

23

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

24

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

25

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

27

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

28

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

29

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

30

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

31

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

33

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

34

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

35

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

36

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

37

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

38

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

39

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

40

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

41

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

42

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

43

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

45

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

46

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

47

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

48

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

49

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

50

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

51

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

52

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

53

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

54

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

55

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

56

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

57

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

58

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

59

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

60

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

61

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

62

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

63

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

64

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

65

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

67

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

68

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

69

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

70

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

71

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

72

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

74

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

75

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

79

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

80

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

82

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

83

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

84

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

85

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

86

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

87

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

88

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

89

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

90

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

91

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

92

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

93

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

94

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

95

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

98

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

99

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

101

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

102

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

103

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

104

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

105

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

106

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

107

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

108

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

109

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

111

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

112

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

114

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

115

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

116

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

118

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

119

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

122

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

124

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

125

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

126

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

128

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

129

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

130

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

6-0

9-1

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

4-2

7-3

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

2-4

4-6

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

5-1

9-1

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

5-1

9-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

3-3

6-4

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

5-1

7-2

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

1-5

3-7

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

97.0

97.7

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

8-0

11-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

4-4

6-5

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

3-3

7-3

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

3-4

5-5

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

1-5

4-6

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

4-3

6-4

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

1-5

4-6

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

4-3

6-4

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

5-2

7-3

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

5-2

7-3

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

3-4

4-6

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

4-2

7-3

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

2-5

4-6

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

1-6

2-8

ACC Averages

105.0

104.4

105.3

104.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

6-1

9-1

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

4-3

6-4

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

6-1

9-1

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

4-3

6-4

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

4-3

7-3

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

3-4

6-4

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

3-4

5-5

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

2-5

4-6

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

2-5

4-6

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

1-6

3-7

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

7-0

10-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

5-2

8-2

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

6-1

9-1

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

4-3

7-3

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

2-5

4-6

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

0-7

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

5-2

8-2

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

6-1

9-1

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

4-3

7-3

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

4-3

6-4

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

2-5

4-6

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

0-7

2-8

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

5-1

7-3

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

4-2

6-4

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

2-4

3-7

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

5-1

7-3

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

5-1

8-2

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

4-2

7-3

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

3-3

4-6

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

1-5

1-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

3-3

4-6

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

0-7

1-9

CUSA Averages

86.5

87.1

86.9

86.8

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

x

8-2

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

x

6-4

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

x

5-6

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

x

1-9

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

x

1-10

Indep. Averages

89.9

90.5

89.6

90.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

3-3

5-5

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

3-3

4-6

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

5-1

6-4

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

3-3

4-6

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

2-4

3-7

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

0-6

0-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

5-2

7-4

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-3

4-6

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

3-3

4-6

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

5-2

7-4

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

3-3

6-4

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

2-4

5-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.9

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

6-0

9-1

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

5-1

8-2

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

5-1

6-4

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

3-3

6-4

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

3-3

4-6

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

5-2

8-2

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

4-3

7-4

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

2-4

4-6

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

1-5

4-6

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

3-3

6-4

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

1-6

2-8

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.5

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

7-0

9-1

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

2-5

5-5

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

2-5

5-5

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

3-5

4-6

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

4-3

5-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

6-1

9-1

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

6-2

7-4

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

2-5

5-5

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

4-3

4-6

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-5

4-6

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6-1

9-1

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

7-2

9-2

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

3-3

5-5

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

2-4

5-5

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

3-5

5-5

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

3-5

4-7

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

6-0

10-0

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

6-1

9-1

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

4-3

7-3

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

4-2

7-3

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

2-5

4-6

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

2-5

4-7

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

113.7

111.9

113.5

113.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

5-1

9-1

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

4-2

6-4

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

3-3

5-5

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

3-3

6-4

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

1-5

4-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

5-1

8-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

4-2

6-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

3-3

4-6

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

2-4

3-7

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

0-6

1-9

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.0

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.9

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.0

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.8

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

SMU

5

Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgi