After losing most of our imaginary profit made in the first two weeks last week, we happened to be gifted with a week where the numbers seemed to be in our favor. We issued seven selections, including a Money Line Parlay that had eye-popping +204.42 odds. The Wyoming-Air Force rivlary game immediately drew our attention, as the 14 1/2 points were not just a gift, but an outright mistake. It won to start the weekend out on a great note.
We played two short favorites at home, something we rarely like to play. One of them, Maryland over SMU, won. The other was winning until a true freshman quarterback acted like Peyton Manning in the second half of his game, and our own local Vanderbilt Commodores won as a road ‘dog.
We played three totals, and all three won, but two of those were by the skin of our teeth. Oklahoma blew Nebraska off their home field. Thankfully, they ate the last 6 minutes off the clock when any score would have done us in. Notre Dame and Cal covered the 40 1/2 point total by a half point. Once again, we felt the AFA-Wyoming game was a gift with its high total, because the Cowboys historically have slowed down the option and kept this game close and low scoring.
Now to the Money Line Parlay at better than 2-1 odds. Penn State easily clobbered Auburn, as we thought would happen. Texas A&M was in a must-win situation to save Jimbo Fisher’s smoldering seat from becoming inflamed. North Carolina State proved their ranking is valid by topping Texas Tech with little trouble, and voila, we had an outstanding week cashing in six imaginary tickets in seven wagers. The imaginary $700 investment returned $1,294.42 for a fake profit of 85%. For the season to date, our beginning imaginary balance of $1,000 is now worth $1,906.19 a profit gain of 90.6% in four weeks.
That is now in the past. What have we done for you lately? We are about to do a lot by telling you that as wonderful as the numbers looked to us last week, they look that terrible this week. So many spreads are one point away from being plays for us. That one point is where we live. 20-something games were wiped out just because the number needed to be 7 1/2 instead of 6 1/2, 3 1/2 instead of 2 1/2, and 10 1/2 instead of 9 1/2. Buying points or playing teasers are two things we don’t like to do, unless we can play a 3-game, 10-point teaser where we can move spreads from 4 1/2 to 14 1/2, 7 1/2 to 17 1/2, 11 1/2 to 21 1/2 and similar.
Additionally, the totals seem to be a lot more accurate this week. Maybe on Monday, there were some playable totals, but by Wednesday night (when our picks are made), they had moved to unplayable numbers. We found just one game where we live the total this week.
That brings us to the Money Line parlay possibilities. Our philosophy with Money Line parlays is to take no more than three games on a parlay and to get at least +130 odds. Very rarely, we will add a fourth game that we believe has a better than 98% chance that the favorite will win. We could have added fourth games to the two parlays we chose, but that would have only raised the odds from the +130s to the +160s, and we don’t have the 98% confidence rating on either game. So, we are going with just three selections this week, hoping that next week will bring us more selection opportunities.
Selection #1: Southern California and Oregon State Under 70 1/2
It is our belief that this number had to be a little inflated to make it closer to a 50-50 wagering proposition. Still, the public is tending to the Over here. Both teams’ defenses and special teams have contributed to their scoring so far this year. This game figures to have better special teams defense, and both teams’ coaches might be preparing a little more than normal conservative game plans. We think the score could be in the neighborhood of 35-27, 35-31, or 34-28. Even a 38-28 game wins for us. So does a 35-34. It has to get to 38-35, 42-31, and 45-28 before this one loses.
Selection #2: Money Line Parlay at +135.77
Syracuse over Virginia
Georgia Southern over Ball St.
Old Dominion over Arkansas St.
Selection #3: Money Line Parlay at +134.52
Kansas over Duke
Clemson over Wake Forest
Temple over U Mass.
There is nothing special in our parlay picks this week. We simply believe that the chances of winning either one top the odds. We believe each one has a better than 50% chance of winning, and the chance of winning at least one of the two are 90%. Since going 1-1 in these two parlays is a guaranteed profit, we chose to pick these two with very similar odds, even if they are near our minimum odds we like to play.
Remember This: The PiRates never wager real money on these selections. We hope you don’t either. If you do wager real money, please do not use our selections as the main reference for your wagering.
We are not naive. We know there are more than a dozen of you that play our selections. Just because we have begun the 2022 football season with incredible results, there is no guarantee that this will continue. We have enjoyed 17 winning seasons in 22 years with this feature, but a couple of those 5 losing seasons were big losers. Many of our winning seasons returned 8-15% profit, some of those coming in years when the overall stock market returns were better than 15%. You don’t have to deal with the vig when you invest in corporations.
Coming later today: Our fourth annual Top 20 Coaches Ready For Prime Time. You will see some familiar names, but you are going to see some names you may not know, including one coach from the Division 2 ranks.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 19, 2022
Last week’s opening picks missed, as Virginia Tech made Sam Howell look like Thurston Howell. Duke then failed to show up against Charlotte, and poof, our two picks were destroyed. Such is life when you wager on parlays that return the odds we look for when we place our imaginary wagers.
We have two more picks returning some fat odds this week, and maybe we’ll get lucky and hit on one. We will also tell you a week 1 tip for the NFL. Although we are here just for Money Line Parlays this year, it doesn’t mean we cannot give out a little interesting information.
Here are our two Money Line Parlays for Week two of the college season. We will eventually pick some NFL games, but Week one is not the time and place for that.
Parlay 1
Odds:
+224
Must Win
Opponent
Virginia
Illinois
Rutgers
Syracuse
Michigan
Washington
Parlay 2
Odds:
+180.56
Must Win
Opponent
Mississippi St.
North Carolina St.
TCU
California
Here’s our tip for Week 1 of the NFL season. Underdogs of 1 to 3 points tend to win outright 50% of the time, but they also lose by less than 3 points another 8-10% of the time. That’s 58-60% success for wagering on 3-point Underdogs.
There are seven games as of this writing with a 3-point spread. The Dogs are:
Houston against Jacksonville
Arizona against Tennessee
Philadelphia against Atlanta
Indianapolis against Seattle
Cincinnati against Minnesota
Miami against New England
N.Y. Giants against Denver
Comments Off on PiRate Picks For September 9-13, 2021
The Atlantic Coast Conference benefitted from Covid by gaining an extra playoff team last year. With Notre Dame choosing to become a full member for the season, and then with the Irish running the table, topping Clemson, while Clemson won all its remaining games, when the Tigers took the rematch in the ACC Championship Game, it opened the door for two ACC teams to make the playoffs.
Unfortunately for the league, Clemson was bombed by Ohio State and Notre Dame had no chance against Alabama in the semifinal round, as the two teams lost by a combined 38 points.
2021 should be back to normal for the league, but who knows if this will be the last time the 14 teams are together in one league, as of this writing, rumors are running rampant about a possible alliance between the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12, and other rumors have claimed that Clemson and Florida State would like to become members of the SEC.
At the ACC Preseason Meetings, the media voted their predictions for the 2021-2022 season.
Atlantic Division
(First-place votes in parenthesis)
1. Clemson – 1,028 (146)
2. NC State – 804 (1)
3. Boston College – 638
4. Florida State – 510
5. Wake Forest – 472
6. Louisville – 462
7. Syracuse – 202
Coastal Division
(First-place votes in parenthesis)
1. North Carolina – 979 (109)
2. Miami – 881 (28)
3. Virginia Tech – 582 (3)
4. Pitt – 576 (1)
5. Virginia – 540 (2)
6. Georgia Tech – 340 (4)
7. Duke – 218
Overall Champion
Clemson – 125
North Carolina – 16
Miami – 3
Virginia – 1
Georgia Tech – 1
NC State – 1
Clemson doesn’t rebuild; the Tigers reload with the next round of 4-star and 5-star talent. Losing once in a generation quarterback Trevor Lawrence is not a reloadable possibility. D.J. Ulagalelei is a brute force that could play tight end or linebacker. He just happens to have an accurate arm and the intelligence to know where to throw the ball. While he won’t put up Lawrence numbers, especially on the ground, he can lead Clemson back to the playoffs again. Finding capable receivers will be a tougher task, but tight end Braden Galloway gives CU a big target in the middle of the field.
Coach Dabo Swinney has 10 defensive starters coming back this year, and one or two might lose starting status to even better players. This should be the best defense in all of college football, led by one of the best defensive lines in many years. Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy could easily make the 1st team All-American team.
Clemson also rates highly in its kicking games, as punter Will Spiers carried a 44 yard average, and placekicker B.T. Potter nailed a couple of 50-yard plus field goals and hit on 18 of 23 overall.
Clemson gets its toughest task in the regular season right off the bat, when they face Georgia in Charlotte on September 4. If they get past their old rival, there’s no reason to think they cannot go undefeated until the Playoffs.
The race for second place in the Atlantic Division is wide open. Five of the remaining six teams in the division could finish in second place.
Wake Forest had an outstanding offense and weak defense last year going 4-4 in the regular season before losing to Wisconsin in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. An offense that scored 36 points per game and racked up 444 yards per game merely returns every starter this year and welcomes some fine new talent. Coach Dave Clawson has this team flying under the radar. Due to unfortunate injuries the last two seasons, there is loads of depth on board, and the Demon Deacons need only a slight improvement on the defensive side to contend for nine or ten wins.
North Carolina State didn’t play Clemson last year due to a Covid cancellation, and the Wolfpack didn’t play Notre Dame. Their 8-4 record was helped by playing Duke, Syracuse, and Florida State. This year, the Wolfpack have a better roster on both sides of the ball, and another 8-win season is quite possible, even with Clemson returning to the schedule.
Coach Dave Doeren must hope that quarterback Devin Leary can return from a season-ending leg injury and be the pre-injury passer he was in 2020, when he completed 60% of his passes for an average of 13.5 yards per completion. Leary has three talented receivers coming back that combined for 118 receptions for 1,744 yards and 17 touchdowns. Leary will have good protection as four offensive linemen starters are back.
The Wolfpack need to be a little stingier against the pass this year if they are to contend for second place in the Atlantic. After giving up more than 240 passing yards and 415 total yards in 2020, NC State will have new defensive backs in the starting 11.
Jeff Hafley came to Boston College after producing a couple of outstanding defenses at Ohio State. He took over a BC program that was falling back in the pack and in one year, he made the Eagles a tough out in the ACC. While BC went 5-5 in the league and 6-5 overall, they lost to North Carolina by four, Clemson by six, Notre Dame by 14, and Virginia by 11.
Hafley has a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball, and in year two in Chestnut Hill, we expect the Eagles to earn a bowl bid and be in the hunt for an eight-win season. By 2022, this team might be ready to compete for a division title.
Mike Norvell’s first season at Florida State would have been unforgettable if he hadn’t made headlines a couple of times. A 3-6 included just one impressive win. After losing to a Georgia Tech team still trying to transition to a pro-style offense from the triple option, the Seminoles were embarrassed by in-state rival Miami by six touchdowns. Additional lopsided losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville showed the fans just how far this program had fallen since Jimbo Fisher left for Texas A&M.
FSU may have benefitted the most from the Transfer Portal, as Norvell picks up several players that should become starters. The only thing in the way of a winning season this year may be the schedule, as the Seminoles play Notre Dame and Florida out of conference as well as North Carolina and Miami from the Coastal Division.
Louisville took a step back in Scott Satterfield’s second year after going 8-5 in 2019. He also antagonized fans and maybe the administration by lobbying for the South Carolina job that he did not get. This program is one to watch to see if Satterfield still owns the locker room. If not, UL may be headed for trouble. The Cardinals have lost some key players to transfer in the past couple of years too, so this may be the do or die season for Satterfield. If he can work the same magic he worked at Appy State, UL might turn things around, but it’s not a guarantee.
Syracuse went 10-3 in 2018, and Coach Dino Babers appeared to be the second coming of Mike Leach. Since then, the Orange are 6-17. Last year, the Air Raid offense never took off. Scoring just 17.8 points per game and totaling just 265 total yards per game, third weakest in the nation. The squad is much more experienced this year, but SU doesn’t look like a team capable of coming out of the basement.
The Coastal Division has a clear-cut favorite for the first time in many years, but it isn’t a slam dunk like the Atlantic Division.
North Carolina went 11-1 in 1997 and finished sixth in the polls in Coach Mack Brown’s last season during his first tenure in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels have not finished in the top ten since. However, they made it back to the top ten after starting the 2020 season 3-0. When a team with a great coach coming off a decent year returns one of the top five quarterbacks in the nation plus the entire offensive line, it is a good bet that this team will light up the scoreboard. UNC averaged 42 points per game last year. Is it possible, the Tar Heels could approach 50 points per game this year? It isn’t impossible, and if they do score 50 points per game, QB Sam Howell will be invited to New York in December. Only a defense that had some issues with the pass last year could prevent North Carolina from competing for the ACC Championship. Clemson should be able to outscore them in a potential conference championship game.
Miami of Florida will be there waiting to replace North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game if the Tar Heels’ defense isn’t up to the task. The Hurricanes’ defense will be strong enough to make Manny Diaz’s third team a big winner in Coral Gables. With quarterback D’Eriq King returning after proving to be a dual threat in the new spread offense, Miami should score a few more points per game than they did last year.
The Hurricanes get the optimum test to open the season, as they face defending national champion Alabama in Atlanta. Nick Saban won’t allow his team to overlook Miami, but even so, Miami might scare the Crimson Tide for a quarter or two.
After the top two in the Coastal, there is a major dropoff to the next tier. Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Pittsburgh are fairly evenly matched, and they are likely to split the games between them while losing to the two heavyweights.
Justin Fuente has been at Virginia Tech for five years and owns a 38-26 record in Blacksburg. He is on a very hot seat after going 5-6 last year. We will note that legendary coach Frank Beamer was 22-32-1 in his first five years.
Virginia Tech must rebuild on offense, which was the strongpoint of the season last year. The Hokies lost starting quarterback Hendon Hooker via the Transfer Portal and star running back Khalil Herbert to the NFL. It looks like 2021 will be the decisive year in Blacksburg for Fuente. If the Hokies go 6-6 or 7-5, it might not be enough for him to keep this job.
Virginia won the Coastal Division title in a small surprise in 2019, but Covid ruined the Cavaliers’ ability to play consistently last year, and they fell to 4-5 in the league. Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavs did enjoy a four-game winning streak in late October and November, including wins over North Carolina and Boston College.
Quarterback Brennan Armstrong also led the team in rushing last year; he played behind an inexperienced line and didn’t have a go-to running back last year. Armstrong will have to wait until November for his best target to be available. Wideout Lavel Davis Jr. is rehabbing from an ACL injury suffered in Spring practice. Davis averaged 25.8 yards per catch last year after scoring two touchdowns on four receptions in his college debut against Duke. A healthy Davis could be the difference in the final two games of the season against the other two teams in this tier in the Coastal Division.
Every year, the PiRate Ratings don’t seem to give Pat Narduzzi’s Pittsburgh Panthers a lot of respect. While the ratings are based on certain data, there must be something Narduzzi and his coaching staff do to produce a product that is greater than the sum of its parts. Once again, the Panthers’ are looking at a mediocre start to their season, but this year the first four games are all winnable, and three of the four are basically sure things. Playing Syracuse from the Atlantic, as well as the expected bottom tier teams in the Coastal gives Pitt a chance to win three or four conference games and make a small bowl.
Pitt plays an old style of football. Their defense leads the way, while their offense is pedestrian but makes fewer mistakes than a wide open offense. Last year, Pitt led the ACC in rushing yards allowed and finished second in total yards allowed, but offensively the Panthers finished near the bottom.
Things might be a bit different in 2021 as quarterback Kenny Pickett is a fifth year senior and has gotten better every year. Having star receiver Jordan Addison return with him means the Panthers should see improved numbers in the passing game. Unfortunately, Pitt lost their starting defensive ends from last year, two players that combined for 16 ½ sacks and 27 ½ tackles for loss. The Panthers still have a talented trio of starting linebackers, including Cam Bright, who had 8 ½ sacks last year.
Duke suffered through a miserable 2020 season that saw the Blue Devils go 1-9 in league play and 2-9 overall. 2021 doesn’t look to be very promising, as the Blue Devils lost more experience than any team in the league. The offense led the nation in turnovers, and even though the former quarterback responsible for 21 of those 39 has transferred out of the program, Duke might commit fewer turnovers this year but gain many fewer yards with a junior who threw 25 passes last year, mostly of the three and four yard variety. Additionally, the offensive line must be rebuilt, and rather than suffer through fumbles and interceptions, sacks might be the new liability this year.
Coach David Cutcliffe must also rebuild his defense, but there’s nowhere to go but up, after Duke finished last in the league in scoring defense. The only reason why the Blue Devils didn’t give up the most total yards is that opponents found it easy to run the ball against them. Duke finished dead last in rushing defense, so opponents didn’t throw the ball as often as they did against other teams.
Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the ACC:
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Clemson
120.9
121.5
124.0
122.2
Wake Forest
108.0
106.7
108.3
107.7
NC State
106.5
105.8
105.9
106.1
Boston College
104.7
105.3
105.7
105.2
Florida St.
103.4
103.6
103.5
103.5
Louisville
101.7
101.4
103.2
102.1
Syracuse
93.7
93.1
92.1
92.9
Coastal Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
North Carolina
116.4
116.7
119.9
117.7
Miami (Fla.)
117.1
116.1
117.7
116.9
Virginia Tech
106.4
104.9
104.7
105.3
Virginia
102.1
104.1
101.8
102.7
Pittsburgh
99.8
100.9
100.1
100.2
Georgia Tech
98.0
98.3
98.3
98.2
Duke
89.7
91.2
88.5
89.8
ACC Averages
104.9
105.0
105.3
105.0
The PiRate Ratings are designed to be effective for the next week’s slate of games and not to be used to look forward. Nevertheless, we predict the won-loss records just for fun.
Marjorie Miller Designs
Our favorite handmade jewelry artisan (art critics call her designs “Wearable Masterpieces”)
The Bracket Matrix
The PiRate Ratings (Pi) are included in the best college basketball bracketology site on the Internet. Check out the Bracket Project Blog at: https://bracketproject.blogspot.com/
The PiRate Ratings
See the most current PiRate Ratings and Spreads for college and NFL football
The Pi-Rate Ratings 