The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 28, 2020

The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–Elite 8 Saturday

We are down to the Elite 8, and after today’s East and South Regional Finals, there will be six teams left in the field.  We’re just 24 hours away from knowing which of these best teams of all time (1960-2019) will make the Final Four.

If you haven’t been following this simulation since its beginning, we took 68 of the best NCAA basketball teams between 1960 and 2019.  No school could have teams from consecutive seasons, or else this would have been the UCLA Invitational.

The games were simulated by actually playing the college made version of Statis-Pro Basketball, a game made by Avalon Hill and Sports Illustrated between the 1970’s and 1980’s.  Our Captain solved the codes for that game and applied them to college.

Here are the results for the East and South Region Championships.

 

EAST REGION

 

Wolf Pack Dominates On Boards/Towe Magnificent

 

1974 North Carolina St.

75

2019 Virginia

64

In it’s first three games in this tournament, Virginia had been able to limit turnovers and force the opponent into bad shots.  In the Elite 8, the Cavaliers committed just seven turnovers, but they could not prevent North Carolina State from getting open shots.  Thanks to point guard Monte Towe’s excellent passing, the Wolf Pack shooters were open more often than a normal UVa opponent.

Towe dished out 10 assists in the game, five in both halves.  Towe also contributed 22  points, hitting all eight of his foul shots in the second half when North Carolina State increased their lead from five to 11 points.

Boxscore

North Carolina St.

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Tom Burleson

C

8

13

0

0

4

6

4

6

10

0

0

3

2

2

20

Tim Stoddard

F

2

5

0

0

2

3

1

7

8

1

0

1

1

2

6

David Thompson

F

5

11

1

3

6

8

3

7

10

2

1

2

2

2

17

Mo Rivers

G

2

7

1

4

1

2

0

3

3

1

1

0

2

3

6

Monte Towe

G

5

12

4

9

8

9

0

1

1

10

2

0

3

0

22

Phil Spence

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

1

0

1

2

Greg Hawkins

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

0

0

0

1

0

0

Steve Nuce

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

2

2

Mark Moeller

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

3

Totals

24

52

6

16

21

28

9

30

39

14

4

7

11

13

75

 

 

 

Virginia

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Mamadi Diakete

C

1

3

0

0

0

0

2

2

4

0

0

1

0

5

2

De’Andre Hunter

F

2

7

0

3

3

4

1

4

5

1

0

0

2

4

7

Ty Jerome

F

5

12

2

6

3

4

0

4

4

6

1

0

2

5

15

Kyle Guy

G

6

14

3

8

3

3

0

4

4

2

0

0

1

4

18

Kihei Clark

G

2

5

1

2

0

0

0

1

1

3

1

0

1

3

5

Braxton Key

5

9

1

2

1

2

1

4

5

0

1

0

1

2

12

Jack Salt

2

5

0

0

1

2

0

3

3

1

0

0

0

2

5

Jay Huff

0

2

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

2

Totals

23

57

7

22

11

15

4

22

28

13

3

1

7

26

64

Player of the Game

Monte Towe

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

N. C. State

34

41

75

Virginia

31

33

64

 

 

WEST REGION

 

Brunson and Bridges Bring Back The Wildcats

 

2018 Villanova

75

1970 UCLA

69

 

Trailing by six points eight minutes into the final half, Villanova’s Jalen Brunson and Michael Bridges scored a combined 19 points to bring the Wildcats back into the lead at 68-67 with less than two minutes remaining.  Foul shooting and multiple missed three point shots sent the Bruins back to Westwood.

 

Boxscore

Villanova

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Omari Spellman

C

0

2

0

1

0

0

2

4

6

0

0

1

1

5

0

Eric Paschall

F

2

5

1

3

6

6

1

5

6

0

0

2

0

2

11

Michael Bridges

F

7

12

3

5

5

5

1

7

8

0

0

0

2

1

22

Phil Booth

G

2

4

2

3

4

6

0

2

2

3

1

1

2

2

10

Jalen Brunson

G

7

17

3

5

6

8

0

1

1

6

2

0

2

3

23

Donte DiVincenzo

2

6

1

4

2

3

0

2

2

3

1

0

3

1

7

Collin Gillespie

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree

1

4

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

1

2

Team

3

Totals

21

50

10

21

23

28

4

22

29

12

5

4

10

15

75

 

 

 

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Steve Patterson

C

5

11

0

0

2

2

2

7

9

1

0

1

2

4

12

Sidney Wicks

F

7

15

0

2

3

5

4

8

12

3

1

2

5

4

17

Curtis Rowe

F

6

12

1

3

2

3

2

8

10

1

2

0

2

4

15

John Vallely

G

4

8

2

6

3

4

0

2

2

5

1

0

3

3

13

Henry Bibby

G

4

10

2

7

2

2

1

1

2

2

1

0

2

4

12

John Ecker

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

Jon Chapman

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

Bill Seibert

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

Team

3

Totals

26

56

5

18

12

16

9

26

38

12

5

3

15

26

69

Player of the Game

Jalen Brunson

 

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Villanova

40

35

75

UCLA

41

28

69

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Midwest and West Region Finals

 

Midwest Region Championship: 1968 UCLA vs. 1968 Houston

West Region Championship: 1972 UCLA vs. 1982 North Carolina

 

March 27, 2020

The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–The Sweet 16 Friday

After last night’s games, we are down to just 12 teams left, and before tonight’s action ends, we will have the Elite 8.  Then, by the end of  the weekend, we’ll be down to the Final Four.

Tonight’s Sweet 16 action involves games in the Midwest and West Regions.

MIDWEST REGION

 

Jabbar Destroys Duke

 

1968 UCLA

83

2015 Duke

57

 

The number one seed in the Midwest Region has reached the Region Finals with relative ease.  The 1968 UCLA Bruins quickly dispatched 2015 Duke with a 19-4 run to begin the game.

UCLA took a 20-point lead at 34-14 after back to back baskets by Kenny Heitz and Mike Lynn.  Once down by 20 points, Duke never got closer than 15 points the rest of the way.

By the time the UCLA reserves entered the game for good, the Bruins led 74-42.  Duke ended the game on a 15-9 run.

 

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

C

14

23

0

0

3

5

7

9

16

1

1

5

3

1

31

Mike Lynn

F

3

6

0

0

4

6

1

4

5

3

3

0

1

3

10

Lynn Shackleford

F

2

5

0

2

2

2

1

5

6

2

2

1

2

3

6

Lucius Allen

G

3

8

2

5

5

6

0

2

2

4

3

0

3

1

13

Mike Warren

G

4

7

2

4

2

2

0

3

3

3

1

0

4

2

12

Jim Nielsen

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

Kenny Heitz

2

5

1

3

1

2

0

1

1

2

2

0

1

1

6

Bill Sweek

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Neville Saner

1

3

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

1

0

2

2

Gene Sutherland

1

2

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

3

Team

3

Totals

30

61

6

17

17

23

11

26

40

16

12

7

15

13

83

 

 

 

Duke

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Jahlil Okafor

C

3

9

0

0

0

1

1

4

5

1

1

0

2

4

6

Justise Winslow

F

4

11

2

5

4

5

1

2

3

0

0

1

6

4

14

Quinn Cook

F

3

8

1

5

3

5

1

3

4

2

1

0

3

3

10

Matt Jones

G

5

10

3

6

0

0

0

5

5

1

2

0

4

4

13

Tyus Jones

G

4

12

1

4

3

4

0

3

3

5

2

0

3

2

12

Grayson Allen

1

2

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

0

3

1

2

Amile Jefferson

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

0

1

2

0

Marshall Plumlee

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

0

0

0

1

1

0

Nick Pagliuca

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Team

3

Totals

20

52

7

20

10

15

6

21

30

9

6

1

23

21

57

Player of the Game

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

UCLA

50

33

83

Duke

33

24

57

 

 

Cougars Survive Incredible 3 OT Game–Hayes Is Magnificent

 

1968 Houston

122

3 OT

1976 Indiana

121

Elvin Hayes played 52 out of a possible 55 minutes, leading the 1968 Cougars to an incredible triple overtime win to advance to the Elite 8 against an historic rival for a shot at the Final Four on Sunday.

Hayes scored 49 points and grabbed 18 rebounds, connecting on 21-35 from the field and 7-11 at the foul line.   Forward Theodis Lee and guard Don “Duck” Chaney combined for 47 points backing up the Big E.

Indiana appeared to have the game won in the first overtime.  A basket and made foul shot by Bobby Wilkerson, followed by a three-pointer by Tom Abernathy gave the Hoosiers a 102-95 lead with 1:08 remaining.  In the final 68 seconds, Houston forced three turnovers on the Hoosiers.  Hayes hit two baskets, and a three-pointer by George Reynolds tied the game with 12 seconds remaining.   A desperation shot by Quinn Buckner at the buzzer was off target.

In the second overtime, Indiana led 111-108 and had the ball with 12 seconds to go.  Wilkerson went to the foul line with a chance to put IU up by five and missed both foul shot attempts.  Kenny Spain rebounded the ball for Houston and found Chaney open for the tying three-pointer at the buzzer.

In the third overtime, it was Houston’s turn to take the lead and watch Indiana mount a comeback.  With a 120-113 lead, the Hoosiers sent Cougar players to the foul line.  Hayes, Lee, and Chaney combined for 2-6 in the final Houston’s final three possessions.  Indiana crept back with a three-pointer by Wayne Radford and baskets by Scott May and Kent Benson to cut the Houston lead to 122-120.  After the Cougars turned the ball over, Hayed fouled Benson as Benson tried to tie the game up.  Benson hit the first shot and missed the second.  Lee rebounded and threw the outlet pass to Chaney to end the game.

Houston now faces a familiar opponent.  In reality in 1968, the Cougars beat the Bruins at the Astrodome in the Game of the Century, but UCLA blew the Cougars off the floor in the Final Four.  Very few people since realize that Reynolds did not play for Houston in the NCAA Tournament.  He has been eligible in this tournament.

Boxscore

Houston

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Elvin Hayes

C

21

35

0

0

7

11

6

12

18

2

1

4

4

3

49

Ken Spain

F

5

11

0

0

2

4

5

10

15

1

2

3

2

5

12

Theodis Lee

F

11

24

1

5

3

6

3

7

10

3

0

1

2

4

26

Don Chaney

G

7

17

3

8

4

7

2

6

8

8

3

0

5

3

21

George Reynolds

G

4

9

2

5

4

5

0

5

5

6

2

0

4

3

14

Tom Gribben

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

Vern Lewis

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

1

0

1

3

0

Carlos Bell

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

Niemer Hamood

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

4

Totals

48

97

6

18

20

33

16

41

61

22

9

8

18

27

122

 

 

 

Indiana

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Kent Benson

C

10

18

0

0

4

5

2

9

11

2

0

2

2

4

24

Scott May

F

10

21

3

7

6

7

1

7

8

5

2

0

4

4

29

Tom Abernathy

F

8

14

5

11

2

2

2

5

7

2

0

1

3

2

23

Bobby Wilkerson

G

4

13

1

5

4

6

1

7

8

4

1

2

5

5

13

Quinn Buckner

G

4

9

1

3

3

4

1

3

4

6

3

0

3

4

12

Wayne Radford

3

7

1

2

2

3

0

1

1

2

0

0

1

3

9

Jim Wisman

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

2

0

Rich Valavicius

2

3

2

3

0

0

1

2

3

0

1

0

0

3

6

Jim Crews

1

2

1

2

2

2

0

2

2

1

1

0

1

2

5

Mark Haymore

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

1

0

Jim Roberson

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

5

Totals

42

90

14

34

23

29

8

37

50

23

8

5

19

31

121

Player of the Game

Elvin Hayes

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

OT

OT

OT

Final

Houston

45

44

13

9

11

122

Indiana

41

48

13

9

10

121

WEST REGION

 

Undermined Miners Scare Bracket’s Overall Top Seed But Fall Short

 

The 1972 UCLA Bruins began the game looking like they would advance to the Elite 8 with very  little trouble.  Leading 39-20, UCLA went cold, while Texas Western ran their fast break and scored 12 straight points to cut the lead to 39-32.  After Jamaal Wilkes hit a three-pointer, TW scored the final seven points of the half to cut the lead to three points.

Texas Western actually took the lead briefly in the second half when Orsten Artis hit a jumper to put the Miners of 59-58.  UCLA held a slim 68-66 lead when the Bruins went on a 12-2 run to take an 80-68 lead.  TW couldn’t cut the lead under 10 points until the final possession.

 

Boxscore

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Bill Walton

C

9

17

0

0

6

10

5

11

16

5

1

3

2

4

24

Jamaal Wilkes

F

7

14

3

7

2

2

3

8

11

0

0

1

1

2

19

Larry Farmer

F

2

5

1

2

0

0

1

4

5

1

1

0

2

3

5

Greg Lee

G

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

2

0

0

3

3

2

Henry Bibby

G

8

16

3

7

4

4

0

3

3

6

2

0

5

2

23

Tommy Curtis

4

9

2

5

1

2

0

1

1

3

1

0

4

2

11

Larry Hollyfield

2

6

1

3

0

0

0

4

4

0

0

0

2

4

5

Swen Nater

2

3

0

0

1

2

2

3

5

0

0

0

0

3

5

Team

4

Totals

35

72

10

24

14

20

11

36

51

17

5

4

19

23

94

 

 

 

Texas Western

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Nevil Shed

C

1

5

0

0

0

0

1

4

5

0

0

0

0

5

2

David Lattin

F

7

15

0

0

2

3

3

11

14

1

1

0

1

1

16

Harry Flournoy

F

4

7

0

0

0

0

2

7

9

2

1

1

2

4

8

Orsten Artis

G

5

14

3

9

3

4

0

2

2

4

3

0

3

3

16

Bobby Joe Hill

G

7

17

4

10

5

7

0

1

1

3

2

0

4

2

23

Willie Cager

4

8

1

2

5

6

1

3

4

1

1

0

1

2

14

Willie Worsley

1

5

1

4

3

5

0

0

0

3

2

0

2

1

6

Team

3

Totals

29

71

9

25

18

25

7

28

38

14

10

1

13

18

85

Player of the Game

Bill Walton

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

UCLA

42

52

94

Texas Western

39

46

85

 

 

Jordan Puts Tar Heels On His Back–Carolina Going To Elite 8

 

1982 North Carolina

83

1960 Ohio St.

72

 

The 1982 North Carolina Tar Heels needed someone to step up.  Trailing 61-52 midway in the second half, Michael Jordan took matters into his own hands connecting on 6-7 from the field after making just one of his first seven shots.  Three of those six made shots were three-pointers, and he added four foul shots.  His 19 points in the final 10 minutes brought Carolina back fro the brink.  Jordan’s three-pointer with the Buckeyes leading 68-66, gave the Tar Heels their first lead of the game.  Once Ohio State was forced to foul at the end, North Carolina hit seven of eight foul shots.  Ohio State could not connect from behind the arc in crunch time, as UNC pulled away in the last two minutes to win by 11.

 

Boxscore

North Carolina

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Sam Perkins

C

6

11

0

0

5

6

2

5

7

2

0

1

3

3

17

James Worthy

F

7

12

0

0

3

4

2

5

7

3

1

2

1

3

17

Matt Doherty

F

2

5

2

4

5

6

0

3

3

1

0

0

1

2

11

Michael Jordan

G

7

13

3

7

6

8

1

4

5

3

2

0

3

2

23

Jimmy Black

G

3

7

1

3

3

4

0

2

2

5

1

0

2

3

10

Jim Braddock

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

0

1

2

0

Chris Brust

1

1

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

0

0

0

1

2

2

Buzz Peterson

1

2

1

2

0

0

0

1

1

2

1

0

1

0

3

Warren Martin

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

1

0

1

0

Team

3

Totals

27

53

7

16

22

28

6

24

33

17

6

4

13

18

83

 

 

 

Ohio St.

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Jerry Lucas

C

9

16

1

2

5

6

3

8

11

3

0

2

2

3

24

Joe Roberts

F

3

8

0

0

1

2

1

3

4

1

0

0

3

4

7

John Havlicek

F

7

14

2

5

4

5

2

7

9

4

3

0

1

4

20

Larry Siegfried

G

4

11

2

6

3

4

0

2

2

3

1

0

3

2

13

Mel Nowell

G

2

5

1

3

1

2

1

1

2

2

1

0

3

3

6

Dick Furry

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

1

2

Richie Hoyt

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

Bob Knight

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

2

0

Team

3

Totals

26

56

6

16

14

19

7

22

32

13

5

2

15

20

72

Player of the Game

Michael Jordan

 

Coming Tomorrow: The East and South Regional Finals

East: 1974 North Carolina St. vs. 2019 Virginia

South: 1970 UCLA vs. 2018 Villanova

March 21, 2020

The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–Round Three Saturday

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:30 am

Good Saturday morning sports fans.  This is Greg Humble in the studio along with my colleagues here at See BS–Charles Parkly Clark Post, and Kenny Jones. We’re just moments away from a great slate of Saturday games, and at the end of the day four teams will punch their tickets to the Sweet 16.

We’re going to start everybody out with the top-seed in the East, the 2001 Duke Blue Devils taking on the eight seed Kentucky Wildcats of 1978.  Let’s send it out to our See BS crew, Ian Falcon, Jim Snorkel, and Jamie Herdall.

 

EAST REGION

Wildcat Inside Muscle Too Much For The Region’s Top Seed

 

9 Kentucky 1978

89

1 Duke 2001

80

Unassociated Press: The 8-Seed 1978 Kentucky Wildcats took advantage of a huge rebounding edge to hold off the top seed in the East, the 2001 Duke Blue Devils.  The Wildcats enjoyed a huge 51-30 rebounding advantage with the Blue Mist’s Twin Towers both recording double figure boards.

Kentucky broke open a close game midway through the second half.  With a 56-53 lead, the Wildcats went on a 16-5 run to take a commanding 72-58 lead.  Duke frantically mounted a comeback with three-pointers from Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy, and Nate James to cut the lead to 76-70, but the Wildcats chose to keep the ball in the hands of Kyle Macy down the stretch, and Duke was forced to foul one of the all time great foul shooters.

 

Boxscore

Kentucky

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Rick Robey

C

5

8

0

0

4

6

3

8

11

2

0

4

2

2

14

Mike Phillips

F

2

5

0

0

2

3

2

10

12

0

0

3

4

3

6

Jack Givens

F

5

11

1

3

4

5

1

5

6

3

0

0

1

1

15

Truman Claytor

G

2

6

1

4

0

0

1

1

2

2

2

0

2

1

5

Kyle Macy

G

4

9

3

7

10

11

0

1

1

5

0

0

3

2

21

James Lee

4

8

0

0

1

2

2

4

6

0

0

0

2

3

9

Chuck Aleksinas

2

3

0

0

0

0

2

4

6

0

0

2

2

2

4

Jay Shidler

4

7

4

7

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

1

1

12

LaVon Williams

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

0

0

1

2

Fred Cowan

0

0

0

0

1

2

1

2

3

0

0

1

1

2

1

Team

3

Totals

29

59

9

21

22

29

12

36

51

15

3

10

18

18

89

 

 

 

Duke

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Carlos Boozer

C

5

9

0

0

2

3

2

5

7

0

0

0

1

5

12

Shane Battier

F

7

18

1

3

4

6

1

4

5

2

2

1

1

3

19

Mike Dunleavy

F

5

15

2

7

2

2

0

1

1

3

1

0

2

2

14

Nate James

G

3

5

2

4

0

0

1

2

3

3

2

0

0

5

8

Jay Williams

G

4

10

3

8

3

4

1

1

2

4

1

0

1

3

14

Chris Duhon

1

4

0

1

1

2

1

0

1

2

1

0

0

2

3

Casey Sanders

2

3

0

0

2

3

1

4

5

0

0

0

1

4

6

Matt Christensen

2

6

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

1

0

0

0

2

4

Team

4

Totals

29

70

8

23

14

20

7

19

30

15

7

1

6

26

80

Player of the Game

Kyle Macy

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Kentucky

46

43

89

Duke

44

36

80

 

 

Tiny Towe Blitz’s Cardinals Press To Lead Pack To Impressive Win

 

4 North Carolina St. 1974

96

12 Louisville 1980

82

 

Unassociated Press: Five foot, six inch guard Monte Towe proved to be impossible to trap by the vaunted Louisville 2-2-1 press defense.  Time and time again, he broke the press and drove until he found an open teammate, forcing Louisville to call the press off.  By the time the Cardinals stopped pressing, the Wolf Pack had turned the ball over twice, but they scored easy baskets or went to the foul line enough times to take a 10-point lead in the first 12 minutes of the game.

A three-minute stretch to end the first half found N.C. State turning the ball over in their own halfcourt four times, while Louisville warmed up from the field and cut the lead to two points.

The Wolf Pack maintained the lead throughout the second half, and once they held a five point lead, they forced Louisville to foul down the stretch, where Towe was 8 of 8 at the charity stripe in the final minutes to preserve the win.

1974 North Carolina State now faces 1978 Kentucky in the Sweet 16 in what should be an incredible matchup, as the two teams have similar styles.  David Thompson and Jack Givens should be worth the price of admission.

Boxscore

North Carolina St.

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Tom Burleson

C

9

14

0

0

4

6

2

11

13

1

0

3

4

3

22

Tim Stoddard

F

3

5

0

0

2

2

1

8

9

0

0

1

1

2

8

David Thompson

F

6

11

1

2

9

12

3

6

9

2

1

2

3

2

22

Mo Rivers

G

1

3

1

3

0

0

0

1

1

2

1

0

2

4

3

Monte Towe

G

3

7

2

5

11

11

0

1

1

8

3

0

3

1

19

Mark Moeller

3

5

1

1

0

0

1

2

3

0

0

0

1

3

7

Steve Nuce

1

3

0

0

3

4

2

2

4

1

0

0

0

2

5

Phil Spence

2

4

0

0

2

2

0

1

1

0

1

0

2

1

6

Greg Hawkins

1

2

0

0

1

2

0

1

1

1

0

0

2

2

3

Bill Lake

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Mike Buurma

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Bruce Dayhuff

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Craig Kuszmaul

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Dwight Johnson

0

1

0

1

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

Team

3

Totals

29

55

5

12

33

41

9

33

45

15

6

6

18

20

96

 

 

 

Louisville

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Wiley Brown

C

4

8

0

0

2

4

3

2

5

0

1

0

1

5

10

Rodney McCray

F

4

10

1

4

4

5

2

3

5

1

3

0

3

3

13

Derek Smith

F

5

11

0

0

1

2

4

7

11

0

0

1

2

5

11

Darrell Griffith

G

6

17

3

9

4

5

3

3

6

2

1

0

4

4

19

Jerry Eaves

G

2

6

1

5

2

2

1

2

3

5

1

0

2

2

7

Poncho Wright

3

8

1

3

2

3

0

1

1

1

2

0

0

5

9

Roger Burkman

2

7

2

7

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

4

6

Tony Branch

2

5

0

0

1

1

1

2

3

1

1

0

1

5

5

Daryl Cleveland

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

Greg Deuser

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

2

0

Marty Pulliam

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Steve Clark

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Team

3

Totals

29

75

8

28

16

22

14

21

38

11

9

1

13

37

82

Player of the Game

Monte Towe

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

N. C. State

47

49

96

Louisville

45

37

82

 

Cavaliers Put Hoyas To Sleep With Slow Pace

 

3 Virginia 2019

60

14 Georgetown 1984

52

Unassociated Press: The 2019 Virginia Cavaliers slowed the game down to 59 possessions, forcing Georgetown to pass away from Patrick Ewing, and then trapping Ewing when he caught the ball in the post.  The tactic worked, as Ewing could only take seven shots in 35 minutes of action.

This had the look of a game where both teams would struggle to score 40 points, as neither team could solve the other’s defense.  Eight minutes into the game, Georgetown led 7-6.  At this point, Braxton Key entered the game for Virginia and gave the Wahoo offense a shot in the arm with six quick points to give the Cavaliers a 16-13 lead, a lead they would not relinquish.

Virginia held the Hoyas to 34.6% shooting in the second half, as Ewing could only score one basket in the final stanza.

Boxscore

Virginia

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Mamadi Diakete

C

1

4

0

0

1

2

2

5

7

1

0

1

2

1

3

De’Andre Hunter

F

5

12

0

0

4

4

2

3

5

2

0

0

1

1

14

Guy Jerome

F

2

6

1

4

0

0

1

5

6

2

0

0

0

1

5

Kyle Guy

G

2

5

1

3

0

0

0

1

1

3

1

0

1

3

5

Kihei Clark

G

4

11

2

3

2

3

0

2

2

3

0

0

2

1

12

Braxton Key

6

10

2

4

5

6

2

6

8

1

1

0

1

2

19

Jack Salt

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

4

4

0

0

0

0

2

2

Team

3

Totals

21

50

6

14

12

15

7

26

36

12

2

1

7

11

60

 

 

 

Georgetown

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Patrick Ewing

C

4

7

0

0

1

2

2

7

9

0

0

2

0

1

9

Reggie Williams

F

3

8

0

0

0

0

1

4

5

1

1

0

0

3

6

Fred Brown

F

3

9

1

6

0

1

1

3

4

2

1

0

1

2

7

David Wingate

G

3

8

2

5

1

2

1

4

5

1

1

1

2

2

9

Michael Jackson

G

4

12

2

7

4

5

0

2

2

2

0

0

1

1

14

Michael Graham

1

2

0

0

1

2

1

2

3

0

0

0

1

2

3

Horace Broadnax

2

6

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

1

0

0

0

1

4

Gene Smith

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

2

1

0

0

0

0

Bill Martin

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Team

1

Totals

20

53

5

19

7

12

7

24

32

9

4

3

5

12

52

Player of the Game

Braxton Key

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Virginia

33

27

60

Georgetown

29

23

52

 

Hoosiers Limit Mistakes, Play Excellent Defense In Impressive Win

 

10 Indiana 1987

78

2 North Carolina 2005

63

Unassociated Press: The Hoosiers committed just seven turnovers while limiting North Carolina to 40.7% shooting.  Indiana opened a 15-point lead in the first half, and North Carolina never cut the lead to single digits, getting to within 10 points three times.

The Tar Heel starting front court was held to 10-26 shooting, while the Hoosiers’ front court was 17-34.

This sets up an interesting Sweet 16 game between 1987 Indiana and 2019 Virginia Thursday night.

 

Boxscore

Indiana

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Dean Garrett

C

6

11

0

0

2

4

2

7

9

1

0

0

2

3

14

Daryl Thomas

F

9

14

0

0

4

6

1

6

7

3

2

0

1

2

22

Rick Callaway

F

4

9

1

3

3

4

0

7

7

2

1

1

1

2

12

Keith Smart

G

3

7

1

3

2

2

0

2

2

2

2

0

0

1

9

Steve Alford

G

5

12

3

6

5

6

0

1

1

5

0

0

1

2

18

Steve Eyl

1

4

0

0

1

2

1

1

2

0

1

0

2

2

3

Joe Hillman

0

2

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

3

0

0

0

1

0

Team

3

Totals

28

59

5

13

17

24

4

24

31

16

6

1

7

13

78

 

 

 

North Carolina

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Sean May

C

8

19

0

0

3

4

1

8

9

0

0

2

2

3

19

Jawad Williams

F

2

5

1

3

0

0

1

6

7

1

0

0

0

1

5

Jackie Manuel

F

0

2

0

2

2

3

1

5

6

2

1

0

3

4

2

Rashad McCants

G

4

9

4

9

3

4

2

4

6

1

1

0

5

3

15

Raymond Felton

G

7

16

3

7

2

2

2

2

4

3

2

0

2

4

19

Marvin Williams

0

1

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

1

1

0

0

1

0

Melvin Scott

1

2

0

0

1

2

0

2

2

2

0

0

1

3

3

David Noel

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

Team

4

Totals

22

54

8

21

11

15

8

28

40

10

5

2

13

21

63

Player of the Game

Daryl Thomas

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Indiana

41

37

78

N. Carolina

29

34

63

 

SOUTH REGION

 

Top Seed Falls To Quick Bruin Quintet

 

8 UCLA 1964

97

1 Kentucky 1996

89

 

Unassociated Press: UCLA’s great backcourt duo of Walt Hazzard and Gail Goodrich combined for 61 points, and the UCLA full-court press was just as devastating as Kentucky’s matchup press.

Kentucky led for most of the first half and the first six minutes of the second half.  With the Wildcats ahead 61-54, the Bruins reeled off 14 point in the next three minutes to take a 68-66 lead.  After Kentucky tied the score at 68-68, back-to-back three point field goals by Hazzard gave UCLA the lead for good.

Boxscore

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Fred Slaughter

C

2

6

0

0

2

5

3

8

11

4

2

0

5

3

6

Keith Erickson

F

4

9

0

0

2

3

2

9

11

6

3

0

2

3

10

Jack Hirsch

F

3

8

1

4

1

2

2

5

7

1

1

1

4

4

8

Walt Hazzard

G

9

22

3

10

8

11

1

6

7

2

2

0

3

2

29

Gail Goodrich

G

10

17

5

8

7

9

0

1

1

4

2

0

3

2

32

Kenny Washington

3

6

0

0

2

3

4

2

6

0

1

2

3

3

8

Doug McIntosh

2

3

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

0

1

1

1

3

4

Kim Stewart

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

0

0

2

0

Team

4

Totals

33

72

9

22

22

33

13

34

51

17

12

4

21

22

97

 

 

 

Kentucky

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Walter McCarty

C

4

9

0

2

3

5

2

6

8

0

0

1

4

4

11

Antoine Walker

F

7

15

1

2

2

3

1

8

9

0

2

0

1

3

17

Derek Anderson

F

3

7

0

1

0

0

1

4

5

2

1

0

2

5

6

Tony Delk

G

5

13

3

7

4

5

1

3

4

3

2

0

4

2

17

Anthony Epps

G

2

6

1

4

2

3

0

1

1

6

1

0

5

5

7

Ron Mercer

5

8

2

3

3

4

2

3

5

3

2

0

1

2

15

Mark Pope

1

3

0

2

2

2

1

4

5

0

0

1

1

4

4

Jeff Sheppard

2

4

2

4

2

2

0

1

1

1

1

0

2

1

8

Wayne Turner

2

5

0

2

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

1

3

4

Allen Edwards

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

Team

3

Totals

31

72

9

27

18

24

8

31

42

16

9

2

21

30

89

Player of the Game

Walt Hazzard

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

UCLA

44

53

97

Kentucky

48

41

89

Bruin Muscle Proves Too Much For Cardinals

 

4 UCLA 1970

100

5 Louisville 2013

82

Unassociated Press:  The trio of Steve Patterson, Sidney Wicks, and Curtis Rowe flexed their muscles, scoring almost at will at times in the paint and getting multiple offensive rebounds with putbacks.

After beginning the game matching baskets, the score was knotted at 17-17 with 12 minutes to go in the first half.  UCLA opened a 12-point lead in the next eight minutes, and Louisville could get no closer than seven points the rest of the way.

When the Cardinals cut the lead to seven at 69-62, a Bruin 9-2 run moved the lead out to 14, and Louisville began to rush their offense, committing crucial turnovers that allowed the lead to ballon to 21 points at one point.

The 1970 Bruins now face the 1964 UCLA Bruins in a game of contrasts between 1964’s speed and 1970’s muscle.

 

Boxscore

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Steve Patterson

C

6

13

0

0

2

3

2

6

8

1

1

1

2

2

14

Sidney Wicks

F

9

15

0

0

6

8

5

11

16

0

3

4

3

3

24

Curtis Rowe

F

6

11

0

0

4

6

3

9

12

2

2

2

1

1

16

John Vallely

G

6

12

3

6

3

3

0

2

2

5

1

0

4

2

18

Henry Bibby

G

6

14

3

8

5

7

0

3

3

9

1

0

3

2

20

John Ecker

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

2

3

2

Kenny Booker

1

3

0

1

1

2

1

2

3

0

0

0

1

2

3

Terry Schofield

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

1

1

2

1

0

0

1

3

Bill Siebert

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Andy Hill

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

1

0

Team

3

Totals

36

71

7

16

21

29

11

35

49

20

9

7

17

18

100

Louisville

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Gorgiu Dieng

C

7

15

0

0

2

4

2

4

6

1

0

1

2

4

16

Chane Behanen

F

3

8

0

0

1

2

1

6

7

2

0

0

1

5

7

Wayne Blackshear

F

4

11

2

6

2

3

2

6

8

3

1

1

5

4

12

Russ Smith

G

4

9

3

7

6

7

0

4

4

1

2

0

3

3

17

Peyton Siva

G

5

12

2

5

3

3

0

3

3

2

1

0

4

2

15

Luke Hancock

2

4

1

2

0

0

2

1

3

0

0

0

1

4

5

Montrezl Harrell

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

3

3

1

0

0

0

1

2

Stephan Van Treese

2

5

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

2

2

4

Kevin Ware

1

3

1

3

1

2

0

0

0

2

2

0

1

2

4

Team

2

Totals

29

69

9

23

15

21

7

28

37

14

6

2

19

27

82

Player of the Game

Sidney Wicks

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

UCLA

52

48

100

Louisville

37

45

82

 

Grant Hill Puts Blue Devils’ Hopes On His Shoulder To Bring Duke Back To Victory

 

6 Duke 1992

78

14 Kansas 1997

73

 

Unassociated Press: In a game with many twists and turns, Duke blew a 10-point first half lead and trailed by as many as nine points in the second half until Grant Hill took control of the game, scoring 14 of his game high 20 points in the final 11 minutes of the game.

Kansas went on a 24-7 scoring run that covered the last six minutes of the first half and first four minutes of the second half to take a 49-42 lead.  After Duke cut the lead to three several times, the Jayhawks scored six straight points to take a 59-50.  That’s when Hill went to work, scoring 14 of Dukes’ final 28 points.

 

Boxscore

Duke

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Christian Laettner

C

7

13

0

0

5

7

3

5

8

0

0

1

2

3

19

Brian Davis

F

2

5

0

0

0

0

1

7

8

2

1

0

1

1

4

Grant Hill

F

6

11

2

3

6

6

0

5

5

4

1

0

3

2

20

Thomas Hill

G

5

9

2

4

3

4

0

2

2

2

2

0

2

1

15

Bobby Hurley

G

3

7

1

3

4

4

0

1

1

5

0

0

2

0

11

Antonio Lang

1

2

0

0

1

2

1

2

3

1

0

0

1

2

3

Cherokee Parks

2

4

0

0

2

3

2

3

5

0

0

1

0

3

6

Marty Clark

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

1

1

0

Team

3

Totals

26

52

5

11

21

26

7

26

36

14

4

2

12

13

78

 

 

 

Kansas

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Scot Pollard

C

8

15

0

0

3

4

1

6

7

2

0

0

2

4

19

Raef LaFrentz

F

7

12

0

0

1

2

2

5

7

3

0

2

1

2

15

Paul Pierce

F

8

14

0

0

3

5

2

3

5

2

2

1

0

3

19

Jerod Haase

G

2

5

2

5

0

0

0

3

3

2

1

0

3

4

6

Jacque Vaughn

G

2

6

2

5

2

2

0

2

2

4

2

0

1

4

8

Ryan Robertson

1

3

1

3

1

2

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

2

4

Billy Thomas

0

1

0

1

0

0

1

1

2

1

0

0

1

2

0

T.J. Pugh

1

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3

2

Team

3

Totals

29

60

5

14

10

15

6

20

29

14

6

3

8

24

73

Player of the Game

Christian Laettner

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Duke

37

41

78

Kansas

31

42

73

 

 

Wildcats Hot For Three Minutes, But It’s Enough To Advance

 

2 Villanova 2018

64

7 Florida 2007

51

 

Unassociated Press: Villanova couldn’t buy a basket for 3/4 of the game, but then neither could the Gators as both teams had trouble finding the range.  Then, a brief barrage of baskets on 4 of 7 shooting that included a couple of three-point shots broke open a close game to allow ‘Nova to pull away to a safe lead.  Leading just 39-38 in the second half, an 11-0 run gave The Wildcats a 12-point lead.  Florida never could mount a move at this point, and Villanova cruised to victory.

Villanova advances to Thursday’s Sweet 16 round against 1992 Duke.

 

 

Boxscore

Villanova

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Omari Spellman

C

3

6

0

0

2

3

2

4

6

0

0

1

3

2

8

Eric Paschall

F

4

7

0

0

4

4

1

8

9

1

0

2

1

1

12

Michael Bridges

F

5

12

2

5

0

2

3

5

8

0

2

0

2

3

12

Phil Booth

G

3

9

1

4

3

4

1

3

4

3

1

0

5

2

10

Jalen Brunson

G

3

7

2

6

4

5

0

2

2

2

1

0

2

4

12

Donte DiVincenzo

3

9

1

4

2

2

1

3

4

1

0

0

1

2

9

Collin Gillespie

0

0

0

0

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

0

0

1

0

Team

5

Totals

21

51

6

19

16

22

8

26

39

7

5

3

14

16

64

 

 

 

Florida

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Joakim Noah

C

6

11

0

0

3

5

2

8

10

2

0

2

1

2

15

Al Horford

F

5

10

0

0

2

4

3

6

9

0

0

3

1

4

12

Corey Brewer

F

3

12

1

7

3

3

1

5

6

1

2

1

2

3

10

Lee Humphrey

G

2

9

1

4

0

0

0

2

2

3

0

0

3

4

5

Taurean Green

G

1

7

0

5

2

4

0

1

1

2

0

0

5

2

4

Walter Hodge

1

2

0

1

0

0

0

2

2

0

1

0

1

3

2

Chris Richard

1

1

0

0

1

2

1

1

2

1

1

0

0

1

3

Dan Werner

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

Team

2

Totals

19

52

2

17

11

18

7

25

34

9

4

6

14

20

51

Player of the Game

Eric Paschall

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Villanova

26

38

64

Florida

23

28

51

Sweet 16 Schedule For East and South Regions

 

East 

4 – North Carolina St.  1974 vs. 9 – Kentucky 1978

3 – Virginia 2019 vs. 10 – Indiana 1987

South 

4 – UCLA 1970 vs. 8 – UCLA 1964

2 – Villanova 2018 vs. 6 – Duke 1992

 

Coming Tomorrow–Third Round Action From the Midwest and West Regions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 29, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 29, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am

Saturday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Abilene Christian

Central Arkansas

9.4

Alabama

South Carolina

6.1

Albany

Stony Brook

-3.1

Alcorn St.

Southern

-0.5

Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina

4.4

Boston U

Bucknell

8.1

Bradley

Loyola (Chi.)

1.9

Brown

Pennsylvania

-1.8

Buffalo

Akron

-1.0

Butler

DePaul

9.4

Cal St. Bakersfield

New Mexico St.

-6.7

Cal St. Northridge

Cal St. Fullerton

3.7

California

Utah

-0.2

California Baptist

Seattle

5.3

Campbell

UNC Asheville

5.2

Canisius

Saint Peter’s

-0.9

Central Connecticut

St. Francis (NY)

-4.9

Charleston

Drexel

8.6

Chattanooga

UNC Greensboro

-3.3

Clemson

Florida St.

-3.3

Colgate

Army

11.3

Colorado St.

Air Force

10.4

Columbia

Dartmouth

-0.8

Cornell

Harvard

-7.5

Denver

Western Illinois

5.5

Drake

Northern Iowa

-5.7

Duquesne

George Mason

8.3

East Carolina

Connecticut

-7.3

East Tennessee St.

Western Carolina

11.0

Eastern Kentucky

Morehead St.

4.1

Eastern Michigan

Central Michigan

4.4

Evansville

Illinois St.

-0.4

Florida Gulf Coast

North Alabama

2.0

Fresno St.

Wyoming

10.9

Furman

Citadel

21.7

Georgia

Arkansas

-1.7

Georgia Tech

Miami

6.6

Gonzaga

Saint Mary’s

13.3

Grambling

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

10.9

Grand Canyon

UT Rio Grande Valley

3.6

Green Bay

Cleveland St.

8.3

Hampton

South Carolina Upstate

4.4

Hawaii

UC Riverside

4.0

Hofstra

James Madison

14.3

Holy Cross

American

-8.4

Houston Baptist

McNeese

-5.7

Illinois Chicago

Oakland

3.8

Indiana St.

Valparaiso

4.5

Iowa

Penn St.

2.9

IUPUI

Detroit

-0.1

Jackson St.

Mississippi Valley St.

17.1

Jacksonville St.

Tennessee Tech

8.5

Kansas St.

Kansas

-12.9

Kennesaw St.

NJIT

-7.8

Kentucky

Auburn

5.3

La Salle

St. Bonaventure

-1.3

Lafayette

Navy

5.1

Lipscomb

Liberty

-9.6

Little Rock

Louisiana

9.4

Loyola (MD)

Lehigh

5.3

Loyola Marymount

San Francisco

-4.8

LSU

Texas A&M

12.3

Maine

UMBC

-2.7

Marquette

Seton Hall

2.4

Maryland

Michigan St.

1.6

Maryland-Eastern Shore

Delaware St.

5.1

Mercer

Wofford

-0.1

Miami (O)

Bowling Green

-2.5

Milwaukee

Youngstown St.

1.4

Missouri

Mississippi St.

-0.2

Missouri St.

Southern Illinois

5.1

Morgan St.

Coppin St.

5.9

Mount St. Mary’s

Fairleigh Dickinson

3.5

Murray St.

Austin Peay

4.6

Nevada

San Diego St.

-5.8

New Hampshire

Binghamton

9.6

New Mexico

Utah St.

-6.7

Niagara

Iona

-2.4

Nicholls

New Orleans

9.9

Norfolk St.

Howard

14.8

North Carolina St.

Pittsburgh

8.5

North Dakota St.

Omaha

7.8

Northern Arizona

Montana St.

4.6

Northern Colorado

Eastern Washington

6.4

Oklahoma St.

Iowa St.

4.2

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

9.1

Oral Roberts

Purdue Fort Wayne

10.8

Pepperdine

BYU

-9.5

Prairie View A&M

Alabama St.

12.4

Presbyterian

Charleston Southern

0.5

Radford

Gardner-Webb

6.9

Richmond

Massachusetts

12.2

Robert Morris

St. Francis (PA)

0.2

Sacramento St.

Montana

0.5

Sacred Heart

Long Island

6.3

Saint Joseph’s

Fordham

2.8

Samford

VMI

-0.4

San Diego

Pacific

-2.8

San Jose St.

UNLV

14.2

Santa Clara

Portland

11.2

SIU-Edwardsville

Eastern Illinois

-4.1

South Alabama

Troy

10.4

South Carolina St.

North Carolina Central

-1.9

South Dakota

North Dakota

6.8

Southeast Louisiana

Northwestern St.

-0.9

Southern Utah

Idaho

13.0

Stephen F. Austin

Lamar

12.0

Stetson

Jacksonville

0.1

Syracuse

North Carolina

5.4

TCU

Baylor

-8.3

Tennessee

Florida

-0.5

Tennessee St.

Belmont

-8.0

Texas A&M-CC

Incarnate Word

10.3

Texas Southern

Alabama A&M

10.7

Texas Tech

Texas

9.6

Toledo

Ball St.

1.9

Tulane

Memphis

-6.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

6.5

UC Davis

Long Beach St.

8.3

UC Irvine

UC Santa Barbara

6.7

UCLA

Arizona

-5.6

UMass Lowell

Vermont

-10.6

UMKC

Chicago St.

22.5

UNC Wilmington

Delaware

-3.3

USC

Arizona St.

3.3

UT Martin

Southeast Missouri

3.7

VCU

George Washington

14.4

Villanova

Providence

8.2

Virginia

Duke

-6.3

Wagner

Bryant

-3.4

Wake Forest

Notre Dame

0.2

Weber St.

Portland St.

-1.4

West Virginia

Oklahoma

7.7

Western Michigan

Northern Illinois

-1.8

William & Mary

Elon

9.2

Winthrop

High Point

17.9

Yale

Princeton

12.1

 

Saturday’s Important TV Games

 

Games in which both teams are competing for an at-large NCAA Tournament Bid or a regular conference championship in a one-bid league

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

12:00 PM

Fox

Villanova

Providence

12:00 PM

BTN

Iowa

Penn St.

12:00 PM

ESPN

Texas Tech

Texas

2:00 PM

ESPN

TCU

Baylor

2:00 PM

ACCN

Clemson

Florida St.

2:30 PM

Fox

Marquette

Seton Hall

3:45 PM

CBS

Kentucky

Auburn

4:00 PM

ESPN2

West Virginia

Oklahoma

6:00 PM

ESPN

Virginia

Duke

6:00 PM

ESPN+

Brown

Penn

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Yale

Princeton

8:00 PM

ESPN

Maryland

Michigan St.

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Murray St.

Austin Peay

8:00 PM

ESPNU

USC

Arizona St.

8:30 PM

SECN

Alabama

South Carolina

10:00 PM

ESPN2

Gonzaga

Saint Mary’s

10:00 PM

ESPN

UCLA

Arizona

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 17, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology for February 17, 2020

Date

2/17/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Seton Hall

Penn St.

Louisville

Villanova

4

Auburn

Oregon

Creighton

West Virginia

5

Kentucky

Colorado

Butler

Michigan St.

6

Iowa

Ohio St.

Marquette

Arizona

7

LSU

Michigan

BYU

Texas Tech

8

Houston

Wisconsin

Illinois

Rutgers

9

Oklahoma

USC

Saint Mary’s

Xavier

10

Rhode Island

Florida

Arizona St.

Virginia

11

Wichita St.

Indiana

Northern Iowa

East Tennessee St.

12

Stephen F. Austin

Yale

Georgetown

Cincinnati

Purdue

Utah St.

13

Vermont

Liberty

North Texas

New Mexico St.

14

Akron

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

Little Rock

Winthrop

UC-Irvine

Murray St.

16

South Dakota St.

Montana

Prairie View

St. Peter’s

Robert Morris

Norfolk St.

 

The Rest of the Bubble

69

Richmond

70

Arkansas

71

Stanford

72

Mississippi St.

73

North Carolina St.

74

Alabama

75

South Carolina

76

VCU

77

Syracuse

78

Minnesota

79

Furman

80

Memphis

 

A Look At The One-Bid Leagues & Their Conference Tournaments

 

America East: 8 teams with superior seed hosting every game

Vermont (11-1/21-6) has a 2 1/2 game lead over Stony Brook (8-3/17-9), and it would be a major upset if any team other than the Catamounts won this tournament. The race for third place between Albany (7-4/14-12) and Hartford (7-5/14-13) is important, because the 3rd place finisher would get to avoid Vermont until the Championship Game. Of course, second place is still up for grabs, and in the semifinals, the second place team would host the third place team if they both won their quarterfinal round games.

Atlantic Sun: 8 teams with superior seed hosting every game (North Alabama not eligible)

What looked like a cake walk to the conference championship in December has turned into anything but. Liberty (10-2/24-3) was coming off a season in which the Flames won a game in the NCAA Tournament and returned a ton of talent. But, the Flames are not currently in first place in the A-Sun. North Florida (11-2/18-10) not only has a one half game lead over LU, they beat the Flames earlier this year. The rematch is this Thursday at Liberty.

Don’t rule out the third and fourth teams in this league. Stetson (9-3/15-12) has never been to the Division 1 NCAA Tournament, but the Hatters have been in contention in recent years. Lipscomb (7-6/12-14) is the hottest team in the league, having won five of six including a 12-point victory over UNF. The Bisons still have games remaining with the top two teams before tournament play begins.

 

Big Sky: 11 teams in regular bracket at Boise, ID

There is no dominant team inside the league this year. Defending champion Montana (12-3/16-10) was supposed to have a rebuilding season after losing five of the top seven players from consecutive conference championship teams. Give Travis Decuire a lot of credit for his ability to recruit to Missoula and then teach his players to play as a team. The whole is much better than the sum of the parts, and Decuire rates high on our coaches ready to move on to Power Conference schools list, as he is close to leading the Grizzlies to their fourth conference championship in his six years at the school.

Eastern Washington (10-4/17-8) and Northern Colorado (10-4/17-8) are the next two in line in the Big Sky, but EWU has already been swept by Montana, while UNC is one of the three league teams to pin a loss on the Grizzlies. Keep an eye on 6th place Southern Utah (7-7/14-11). The Thunderbirds have been in a bit of a tailspin in the last month, but if they can pull out of it and play like they did in December, they could be a tough out for any of the top five in the league.

Big South: 11 teams. The first round is played at the home court of the higher-seeded team. The quarterfinal and semifinal rounds are then played at the #1 seed’s home floor. The Championship Game is then played on the higher-seeded team’s home floor.

With first place vital in this conference, Winthrop (13-2/19-9) and Radford (12-2/17-9) have separated themselves from the pack and will most likely share the regular season title with identical 16-2 conference records. Since they split their season series with both teams winning on the road against each other, the #1 seed would be settled in a tiebreaker by looking at how these two co-champs fared against the next team in the standings and so forth until the tie is broken. Winthrop’s other conference loss was to 7-6 Gardner-Webb, while Radford’s loss was to 6-8 UNC Asheville. Radford has the advantage here, but remember that Winthrop won at Radford in the regular season, and the Eagles have the superior inside game, which tends to play more of a factor in March.

Big West: 8 teams in regular bracket. All games in Anaheim

UC-Irvine (9-2/17-10) lost some big-time talent off a team that won a game last year’s Big Dance and took Oregon to the final minutes in the Round of 32, but Coach Russ Turner has his Anteaters in first place again this year, and UCI is running away with the regular season race.

The real race is between the second through eighth place teams. First, the ninth place team does not qualify for the tournament, and at the moment, just two games separate second from ninth. Any of the eight teams other than UCI could miss out, while any of the other eight teams could end up with the number two seed. UCSB (5-5/16-9) matches up well with UCI and has a victory over the Anteaters, but they have been swept by Cal St. Northridge (6-5/11-16) and handily defeated by UC-Davis (6-5/12-15). UC-Riverside (4-7/14-13) is a team to watch if they don’t miss out and finish in ninth place. The Highlanders have a very tall lineup that can control the boards and get inside shots when they can control the pace of their games. They are capable of winning three times in three days at the Honda Center.

Colonial Athletic: 10 teams in regular bracket. All games in Washington, D.C.

This is a somewhat down year for the CAA as there are no teams that look capable of winning a second round NCAA Tournament game. The conference race is an interesting one with seven better than average teams.

Joe Mihalich led Niagara to four conference championships and two NCAA Tournament appearances before coming to Hofstra (11-3/20-7). This is his seventh season in Hempstead, and he’s won two CAA Championships thus far, inlcuding last season. This Gaels team is in line to make it number three, but Hofstra has yet to win the CAA Tournament in this time. This teams isn’t as good as last year’s, so it’s hard to say that the Gaels are big favorites to make it to the Dance for the first time since Jay Wright was coaching there in 2001.

Willliam & Mary (10-5/18-10), Delaware (9-5/19-8), and Towson (9-5/16-11) are next in line, but the potentially more dangerous teams are behind them. Charleston (9-6/15-12) and defending Conference Tournament champion Northeastern (7-7/13-13) are talented enough to steal the bid from Hofstra yet again. Charleston is probably the team to watch in the CAA Tournament.

Conference USA: 12 teams in regular bracket. All games in Frisco, TX.

This is a really unique way to host a conference tournament in the Dallas Cowboys practice facility. The league places two playing floors separated by a curtain, and it is possible to sit in such a way that you can see two games at once.

There is quite an advantage here, as the tournament takes place in the backyard of North Texas (12-2/18-9), the current league leader. The Mean Green are undefeated in conference play on their home floor, and they would have to be considered the prohibitive favorite to claim the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Western Kentucky (11-3/18-8) defeated UNT in Bowling Green earlier this year, but the Hilltoppers suffered a crippling blow when sure NBA Draft choice big man Charles Bassey’s season ended with a leg injury.

Louisiana Tech (10-4/19-7) plays tough defense, handles the ball well, and they frequently get extra scoring opportunities, so the Bulldogs are a top contender in the conference tournament. If any other team should sneak through and cut the nets at Jerryworld Headquarters, they would most likely be looking at a 16-seed and possible trip to Dayton.

Horizon: 10 teams. The first two rounds are played at the higher-seeded teams’ home courts. Also, after every round, this league re-seeds its remaining teams like the NFL Playoffs. The final two rounds will then be played in Indianapolis, and the top two teams receive byes to the semifinal round, so finishing first or second is extremely important.

Like they have in recent years, this has been a two-team race, and it’s almost a sure thing that Wright St. (13-2/23-5) and Northern Kentucky (11-4/19-8) will be the top two teams. Wright St. is enjoying its best season in their 14-year run as the class of the Horizon League. However, the Raiders did not have a strong out-of-conference schedule, and we would be shocked if they were to win a game in the NCAA Tournament.

Northern Kentucky is transitioning with a new coach, and the Norse are not as strong as they were under former coach John Brannen, who took NKU to two NCAA Tournaments in his final three years.

Ivy: 4 teams in regular bracket. Games will be played at Harvard.

The Ivy League probably has the correct format for a smaller conference. Only the top four teams qualify for the conference tournament, meaning the champion is at least one of the league’s deserving teams.

As of today, the interesting part of this league is that five teams are competing for four spots. All tied for third with 5-3 conference records and six games to go are Harvard (16-7), Penn (13-8), and Brown (12-9).

Yale (6-2/18-6) and Princeton (6-2/11-10) are only a game ahead of the other three, and both teams must finish their regular season playing four road games and two home games. So, one of the co-leaders could easily fall to 8-6 or 7-7 in league play and finish fifth.

Harvard hosts the tournament, and the Crimson have four home games and just two road games remaining. But, those four home games are versus the other four contenders.

Dartmouth (2-6/9-14) is three games behind the contenders, but the Mean Green have the perfect remaining schedule with four home games, while their two road games are against the two weakest teams in the league. It isn’t impossible for Dartmouth to finish 7-7, and then hope that two of those 5-3 teams come back to the pack.

Metro Atlantic: 11 teams in regular bracket. Games will be played in Atlantic City, NJ

What we have here is an almost sure trip to Dayton for the Conference Tournament champion. The MAAC is quite weak this year, and the automatic bid will go to a team that will immediately become an underdog in a first round play-in game unless some 20-loss team pulls off a conference tournament upset.

Saint Peter’s (10-5/13-11) has gone 8-2 in their last ten games. Former Seton Hall star Shaheen Holloway is in his second year with the Peacocks, and his team is the best in the league in defense and rebounding. As hot as the Peacocks have been, there is one team even hotter. Siena (9-5/13-10) has won six of their last seven games, and the six wins were by an average of more than 16 points per game. The Saints have been on a three-point shooting tear in this winning streak, hitting 40 of 103 from behind the arc, while limiting opponents to just 29-106.

Mid-American: 12 teams in regular bracket. First round games at higher-seeded teams. Remaining rounds in Cleveland.

This is not a particularly strong year for some Maction. This is a definite one-bid league, while in past years multiple teams have made the Field.
This is also the only league that continues to divide its teams into divisions. At the present time, the East is a bit stronger than the West, as it has the top four teams in the league. Bowling Green (10-3/19-7) has a slim half-game edge over Akron (9-3/19-6), while Kent St. (7-5/17-8) and defending MAC Champ Buffalo (7-5/15-9) are right behind.

In the West, Northern Illinois (8-5/15-11) leads Ball St. (7-5/14-11) by a half-game with Central Michigan (6-5/13-11) another half-game back, with all three teams tied in the loss column.

Akron and Kent St. have played stronger schedules than the rest of these teams, but neither has pulled off a big win. The Zips probably give this league its best chance to compete as a double-digit seed in the second round of the Dance.

Mideastern Athletic: 10 teams in regular bracket. All games will be played in Norfolk, VA

North Carolina Central (8-2/12-12) and Nofolk St. (8-2/12-13) hold slim leads over North Carolina A&T (8-3/12-14) and Florida A&M (8-4/10-13), but FAMU is not eligible this year. This is a league where past history showing the #1 seed winning the conference tournament over half the time, and teams finishing fourth or fifth tending to win most of the other times.

There are three teams in contention for fifth place where a 9-7 conference mark should be sufficient to qualify as that dark horse contender. They are: Morgan St. (7-5/13-14), Bethune-Cookman (6-5/12-13), and South Carolina St, (6-5/11-12).
Should either of the top three teams run the table in the league and the conference tournament, there is a chance they could avoid a play-in game in Dayton.

Missouri Valley: 10 teams in regular bracket. All games will be played in St. Louis (Arch Madness)

This is one of two leagues where the regular season champion could still get an at-large bid if it loses in the conference tournament. Northern Iowa (11-3/22-4) has worked its way up the ladder where if they win out, the Panthers could earn a single-digit seed in the Field of 68. If UNI were to lose in the Valley Championship Game and finish the regular season at 28-5, they will probably steal an at-large bid away from a big league like the Big Ten, ACC, SEC, or Big 12.

Loyola of Chicago (10-4/18-9) isn’t nearly as strong as they were two years ago when they surprised the nation with a Final Four run, but the Ramblers are good enough to beat UNI in the Conference Tournament if they handle the ball well and play tough defense. Both of their regular season games with the Panthers went to overtime, with the teams splitting the two games.

Bradley (9-5/18-9) did not match up well with the two teams above the Braves in the MVC standings, while Southern Illinois (9-5/15-12) lacks the offensive firepower to win three games in three days in March.

Keep an eye on a team coming from off the pace to challenge UNI in the MVC Tournament. Drake, Indiana State, Valparaiso, and Missouri State are all tied at 7-7 in the league. It might be advantageous to finish 6th and avoid UNI until a potential championship game. While Arch Madness is usually won by one of the top two seeds, it has been won from the middle of the pack before.

Northeast: 8 teams in regular bracket. All games will be played at higher-seeds’ home courts. Merrimack is ineligible during their transition to D1, while the bottom two teams of the remaining 10 will be eliminated from the tournament.

The rule forcing transitioning teams to be ineligible for the NCAA Tournament is just plain stupid. The NEC has a dominating team in Merrimack (12-2/18-9), who should at least get a chance to prove themselves with an NIT bid. If a team is good enough to win their conference championship and conference tournament, why punish the team and their league? Merrimack doesn’t have an advantage moving up in classification. It’s understandable that a team moving down might should be punished with ineligibility until all of its former Division 1 players have graduated, but this is a team moving up to D1.

The eventual tournament champion is a sure bet for banishment to Dayton and the play-in game. The contenders are all quite weak and none of these teams should be expected to compete against more athletic play-in opponents. The best of the rest include Robert Morris (11-3/15-12), Saint Francis (PA) (10-4/17-8), and Sacred Heart (9-5/16-11). With a five-game winning streak and the best offense in the league, SFPA should be considered the team to beat.

Ohio Valley: 8 teams playing in a special format in Evansville, IN. The OVC brackets their tournament in a method similar to the finals of the Professional Bowlers Association. First, only the top eight of the 12 league teams qualify for the tournament. In the first round, teams 5-8 play, with the two winners advancing to the quarterfinals to play teams 3-4. The two teams that win this round then advance to the semfinals to play teams 1 and 2, so finishing in the top two gets you a two-round bye to the semifinals.

There are four teams in contention for those two double byes, and this league is strong at the top, but not strong enough to sneak a second team into the field like last year.

Murray St. (12-2/19-7) and Austin Peay (12-2/18-9) have been tough rivals for years in the OVC and have enjoyed their share of success in the NCAA Tournament. Belmont (11-3/20-7) beat Temple in the NCAA Tournament last year, but the Bruins have nearly beaten top-rated teams in the NCAA Tournament before, like when a last second shot nearly missed that would have knocked out Duke. Fourth place Eastern Kentucky (10-4/13-14) has averaged 83.5 points per game in their last nine games, using a pressure defense to come up with a lot of steals and fast break points. The Colonels don’t have the same talent as the other three contenders, but they are likely to come with a reckless abandon attitude, while the others might be a bit tight.

If a team from the back of the pack has a chance, it might be Tennessee State (8-6/16-11). The Tigers have the talent to put it together and as a 5-seed, beat the numbers 8, 4, and 1-seed to get to the Championship Game.

Patriot: 8 teams playing in a regular bracket with the higher seeds hosting all games.

Colgate (11-3/20-7) looked like the class of the field until yesterday, when the Raiders fell second division Loyola of Maryland (5-9/13-14). Colgate also lost twice to Lafayette (8-6/16-9). Second place Boston U (10-4/16-11) has won six of seven, but the Terriers lost twice to Colgate. American (9-5/13-12) is in third, while the aforementioned Lafayette rests in fourth place, which probably irritates Colgate, because that would put the Leopards and Raiders on the same side of the Conference Tournament bracket.

Southern: 10 teams playing in a regular bracket with all games played in Asheville, NC.

This is the other league besides the Missouri Valley where a second team could earn an at-large bid. This league is dangerously good at the top of the standings. East Tennessee (12-2/23-4) won at LSU by double digits. Furman (12-2/22-5) lost in overtime at Auburn. UNC Greensboro (11-3/21-6) has road wins against Georgetown and Vermont as well as a close loss at Kansas. Plus, UNCG plays a very unorthodox defense that is difficult to face the first time. Additionally, the fourth through seventh place teams, all with records of 8-6 or 7-7 in league play (Western Carolina, Wofford, Chattanooga, and Mercer) are strong enough to probably win other Mid-Major leagues like the NEC, Patriot, and Big Sky).

If the two championship game participants include ETSU and either Furman or UNCG, the loser of this game deserves an at-large bid, especially if it is at the expense of a power conference team with a losing conference record.

Southland: 8 teams playing in a regular bracket with all games played in Katy, TX, and the bottom five teams in the standings eliminated from the tournament.

Stephen F. Austin (13-1/22-3) will not get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament if they do not win the automatic bid, even though the Lumberjacks won at Duke. The rest of their schedule has not been strong enough to allow them this pass. Should they lose in the SLC Tournament, SFA will actually be a team capable of winning the NIT,but that’s not what they want.

Who could possibly upset SFA in the Conference Tournament? The team to watch would be Nicholls State (11-4/17-9). The Colonels full court press the entire game, and nobody wants to face that pressure in pressure-packed games. At 10 steals per game out of 73 possessions, it leaves little room for error for the team that commits a few too many additional turnovers. Opponents turn the ball over better than one out of every four possessions.

Southwest Athletic: 8 teams playing in a regular bracket with first round games at the higher seeded teams’ home courts and all the final two rounds in Birmingham, AL.

If you follow this incredible conference steeped in great history, you are in for quite a treat at this year’s SWAC Tournament, because as many as seven teams have the ability to come through and get the automatic bid. This might be the most exciting tournament from game one to the Championship Game!

Prairie View (9-2/13-11) and Texas Southern (8-3/11-13) lead the pack at the present time. Both teams have played some very good games on the road against heavy favorites, and both have won games that prove they could contend and maybe scare a heavily-ranked team if one of these teams could sneak into a 15-seed.

After the top two, there are five teams tied for third at 7-5 (Grambling, Alcorn St., Jackson St., Southern, and Alabama St.). We believe that Texas Southern gives the SWAC its best chance to win a play-in game as a 16-seed, while Prairie View is the only team capable of sneaking up to a 15-seed.

Summit: 9 teams playing in a regular bracket with all games played in Sioux Falls, SD.

When your conference tournament is played inside the state where two of your league’s top three teams play, the odds are stacked in the favor of the two in-state teams. South Dakota St. (11-2/20-8) has basically become the Kentucky of the Summit League. The Championship comes through Brookings and then Sioux Falls becomes Frost Arena II, where the Jackrabbits have won five of the last eight Summit League Tournaments.

North Dakota State (10-2/19-7) finished behind SDSU last year in the Summit League race, but then the Bison won the Summit Championship, then won their play-in game in the NCAA First Round, and then stayed within single digits of Duke for 30 minutes in the Second Round.

Don’t forget South Dakota (9-4/19-9) or Oral Roberts (7-6/14-12). Both teams can score a lot of points, and a hot streak by either team could see them cutting down the nets.

Sun Belt: 10 teams playing in a special bracket. The first three rounds will be played at the higher-seeded teams’ home courts, while the semifinals and finals will be played in New Orleans. Teams 7-10 only will play in the first round. The two winners will then play at seeds 5-6 in the second round, and the two winners in that round will play at seeds 3-4 in the third round. The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals in New Orleans, so the regular season conference race will be a mad dash to the finish.

The SBC plays a 20-game conference schedule, and with four games to go, Little Rock (12-4/18-9) holds a slim lead over (Georgia St. (11-5/18-9). Texas St. (10-6/17-10) and Georgia Southern (10-6/17-11). Two other teams, South Alabama and Appalachian St., are 9-7 in the league and still in the race for second place.

All these teams have had nights where they played a good Power Conference team close in a loss, but none of these teams have a big win this year. The champion of this league is likely looking at a quick second round exit as a 15-seed.

Western Athletic: 8 teams playing in regular bracket with all games played in Las Vegas. California Baptist is ineligible.

New Mexico State (12-0/21-6) is such a heavy favorite that it would be a bigger upset if they lost in the WAC Tournament than if the New York Knicks won this year’s NBA Championship. The Aggies have won this league three years in a row and seven times in the last eight seasons.

With second place Cal Baptist (7-3/18-7) not eligible, the next best team is Grand Canyon (7-4/12-13) with Texas Rio Grande Valley next at (7-5/11-14).

February 14, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 14, 2020

Date

2/14/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

Maryland

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

West Virginia

Auburn

4

Villanova

Butler

Penn St.

Oregon

5

Kentucky

Creighton

Michigan St.

Colorado

6

Marquette

Iowa

Arizona

LSU

7

Arizona

Rutgers

Wisconsin

Michigan

8

Ohio St.

Texas Tech

Illinois

Houston

9

USC

Purdue

Rhode Island

Saint Mary’s

10

Oklahoma

Florida

Xavier

Wichita St.

11

Stanford

Indiana

Northern Iowa

Arkansas

Virginia

12

East Tennessee St.

Yale

Stephen F. Austin

Cincinnati

Arizona St.

13

Liberty

Vermont

New Mexico St.

North Texas

14

Colgate

Wright St.

Akron

Winthrop

15

Hofstra

Little Rock

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Montana

Prairie View

Rider

Robert Morris

Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

VCU

70

N. Carolina St.

71

Mississippi St.

72

Utah St.

73

Georgetown

74

Richmond

75

Minnesota

76

Memphis

77

Furman

78

Notre Dame

79

Alabama

80

Tennessee

 

First Four Games

11–seeds: Arkansas vs. Virginia

12–seeds: Cincinnati vs. Arizona St.

16-seeds: Prairie View vs. Robert Morris

16-seeds: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

 

Best PiRate Rating Criteria To Win National Championship

Duke

February 11, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 11, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Akron

Bowling Green

9.0

Ball St.

Northern Illinois

6.8

Boise St.

Air Force

11.4

Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan

5.4

Colorado St.

Utah St.

-2.0

Davidson

Fordham

14.5

Dayton

Rhode Island

9.6

Illinois

Michigan St.

-1.7

Kansas St.

Oklahoma St.

2.3

LSU

Missouri

10.7

Maryland

Nebraska

17.3

Ohio

Western Michigan

5.7

Ole Miss

Mississippi St.

-1.8

Purdue

Penn St.

3.0

Saint Joseph’s

St. Bonaventure

-6.9

San Diego St.

New Mexico

16.7

Syracuse

North Carolina St.

3.1

Tennessee

Arkansas

-0.3

Toledo

Miami (O)

10.2

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

-9.8

Virginia

Notre Dame

3.3

Wake Forest

North Carolina

0.3

 

The Captain’s Table

 

Top Games on TV Tuesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

BTN

Purdue

Penn St.

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Akron

Bowling Green

7:00 PM

SECN

Tennessee

Arkansas

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Syracuse

North Carolina St.

7:30 PM

CBSSN

Dayton

Rhode Island

9:00 PM

ESPN

Illinois

Michigan St.

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Virginia

Notre Dame

9:30 PM

CBSSN

Colorado St.

Utah St.

 

Captain’s Musings

 

Where the NCAA Selection Committee Gets It Wrong

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee has issued its first preliminary seeding of top 16 teams, and we at the PiRate Ratings are happy to say we predicted all 16 teams on the correct seed line.  Predicting seed lines and teams accepted to the Big Dance isn’t all that difficult, because the NCAA clearly shows its cards.  With the exception of Team 68 and occasionally Team 67, determining in advance which 68 teams receive Dance Invitations is almost as exact as multiplication and division.

Usually, when our Bracketology, or our friends on the Internet that supply their own Bracketology, are finalized on Selection Sunday, the only differences in the brackets come on the lower seed lines.  Many times, predictions for a seed line were accurate, but the Committee had to move a team up or down one seed in order to obey the NCAA’s rules about facing an opponent from the same conference in the opening rounds.

Basically, the process is done correctly every time, and when Team number 69 is left out, no matter who that team is, the folks at CBS and ESPN immediately cross-examine the Committee Chairman as if a major slight has taken place.  That is done strictly to get the public to keep watching their Selection Sunday special show, because face it, the public could just as easily wait 30 minutes and quickly see the entire field in the bracket on their computer or phone.

We have no issues with the Selection Committee every year.  They do a great job, and it isn’t easy to get a dozen highly opinionated people to agree on whether Teams 67, 68, 69, and 70 deserve to be in or left out.  The consensus usually is right.

Our problem hangs entirely on the process itself, and we have one major complaint that we believe needs to move high up on the priority line.  That statistic is where a team finishes in its own conference.

Why continue to even have conference play if a team that finishes in third place sweeps the 7th place team and then watches the 7th place team get an NCAA bid, while they have to go to the NIT.  Do you think this doesn’t happen?  Unfortunately, this, or something similar, happens almost every year.

Take a look at South Carolina last year.  The Gamecocks handily beat Florida in Gainesville, and they wiped Ole Miss off the floor.  They split with Mississippi St.  All told, USC finished a game ahead of the two Magnolia State teams and two games ahead of Florida.  Yet, they were the team left out of the NCAA Tournament, while the three teams below them in the standings all went to the Big Dance.

What good is having a conference race at all, if it means absolutely nothing, other than that the regular season champion is guaranteed a spot in the NIT if it fails to make the NCAA Tournament?

If we were named the Commissioner of College Basketball, there would be changes made.  First, we would flip the rules on automatic NCAA Tournament bids.  We’d award an automatic NCAA Tournament bid to the regular season champion of each conference and then guarantee an NIT bid to all Conference Tournament winners that did not receive an NCAA Tournament bid.

Let’s look at a possibility that would make this rule show how much better the tournament might be flipping the automatic bids.  Look at this year’s Southland Conference.  Stephen F. Austin is talented enough and well-coached enough to challenge for a Sweet 16 appearance if not more.  The Lumberjacks won at Duke in one of those games where the zebras tried their hardest to give the big team the win.  SFA players were whistled for fouls just for occupying the same city block in Durham, while Duke players had to commit felonious assault before they were whistled for fouls.  Still, SFA won the game, and had this game been played with totally unbiased officials, the Lumberjacks would have actually blown Duke off the Cameron Indoor Stadium floor.

SFA (12-1/21-3) is three games ahead of its nearest conference foe.  They are likely to enter the Southland Conference Tournament at 28-3 and no worse than 27-4.  And, for this incredible run, the Lumberjacks will be guaranteed only an NIT bid.  They will have to win the SLC Tournament to get into the Field of 68.  What if a team like Nicholls State catches SFA on a cold shooting day and upsets the Lumberjacks?  Nicholls will go bye bye in the opening game, while SFA will probably be forced to play a road NIT game and receive the same type of home-cooking officiating that they faced in Durham.

Under our system, The Lumberjacks would still go to the NCAA Tournament, while Nicholls State would be guaranteed that NIT bid or be allowed to accept the CIT bid if they preferred.  The Colonels might finish four games in back of SFA, and after a 20-game conference schedule, when one team finishes 19-1 in the league and the second best team goes 15-5, it is quite clear which team is better and more deserving of the NCAA bid.

The same holds true in the Power Conferences.  Let’s look at the crazy Big Ten race this year.  Currently, three teams, Ohio State, Indiana, and Michigan, are tied for 12th place at 5-7 in the conference.  Minnesota is a half-game ahead of the trio at 6-7.  However, if you look at the criteria used by the NCAA Selection Committee, Minnesota is barely on the bad side of the Bubble and looking at the NIT, while the other three teams are in the Field.  The Big Ten plays a 20-game conference schedule, so if any number of these four teams get in the Field, the preference should be to take the team(s) that finish higher in the standings.  20 games are enough to determine which teams are better than which teams.  Using advanced metrics is great, and we are devoted Sabermetric devotees, but we realize that actual results trump theoretical results.

 

The 2020 R+T Rating Revision

Recently, we were asked to explain how our power ratings are computed, and we gave a detailed explanation of how we rely on the “Four Factors” of basketball and then apply weightings to each of the four offensive and four defensive factors and then adjust the data based on strength of schedule and a constant (that changes a little every year).  What we basically end up with is something similar to baseball’s weighted on-base average and WAR, where instead of estimating how many wins the players on a baseball team are worth, we estimate how many points better or worse than average each team is worth.

In that explanation, we relied heavily on something that has been obvious in Major League Baseball through the “Moneyball” years.  As Oakland Athletics’ General Manager Billy Beane has so succinctly said in the past, “My stuff doesn’t work in the playoffs.”  He didn’t use the word “stuff” but the PiRates refrain from using foul language.

What Beane said was proven to be correct over and over again.  The analytics that show a team how to win 90+ games don’t apply to winning in the playoffs, and there is a reason for this.  Let’s use last year’s Tampa Bay Rays as an example.

The Rays finished 96-66 and made the playoffs.  Tampa Bay played Baltimore and Toronto 19 times each.  They played Kansas City and the LA Angels seven times and Detroit and Seattle six times.   Even against good teams like the Yankees, Twins, Indians, Astros, and Athletics, they faced those teams’ number four and number five starting pitchers between one third and 40% of the time.

In the playoffs, the Yankees are not going to use their number four and number five pitchers, except in mop up duty.  In a seven game series, they might send their number one ace out there to start games 1, 4, and 7, if he can pitch on three days rest.

Moneyball statistics and all the evolved improved statistics are meant to be used over the course of an entire season’s worth of games.  After 100 games played, the strategies of going for big innings and limiting strategies like sacrifice bunting, hit and run, stolen bases, and hitting to the right side of the infield prove to be less efficient and successful in scoring runs on the whole and even winning games.  Small ball doesn’t work when almost every team now plays in a “band box” ballpark.

However, in the playoffs, when a team is facing the opposing ace or number two pitcher, and when they face the top relievers earlier in the games at the highest leverage, attempting to draw walks and hit three-run homers isn’t going to pop those cheap champagne bottles in the clubhouse.  When Justin Verlander takes the bump in October, you beat him by scratching out a couple runs here and there and hoping your pitching staff can hold the Astros in check for a 3-2 or 2-1 victory.  If you expect to put a crooked number on the scoreboard in the 6 or 7 innings he’s on the hill, you stand a big chance of putting up a run of goose eggs.

The same theory holds true in college basketball.  Over the course of a season, shooting the ball and preventing the other team from shooting the ball is going to determine the winner more times than not.  A team that can get to the foul line and hit 75% of their foul shots to win might go 13-5 in their conference and 24-7 overall.  They might get a fat #4 seed and then promptly lose to the #13 seed from a Mid-Major conference.  And, when you look at that Mid-Major team, they weren’t great shooters, but they could clean the glass better than Windex.

At tournament time, unless your team is playing a 20-loss patsy that got hot and won their post-season tournament, or your team has a number one seed and faces a 16-seed that is far outclassed, your team better be able to rebound the ball and avoid turnovers.

Thus, through the years of the 64 to 68-team NCAA Tournaments, basketball’s “Moneyball” system of trying to win the shooting wars for six or seven games just doesn’t work like it does in the regular season, when a team might win four out of every five games all year to record a 28-7 record.  The only record that matters after the Ides of March is 6-0 or 7-0.

How does a team go 6-0 or 7-0 in the NCAA Tournament?  In almost every case, said team is incredibly proficient in getting extra scoring opportunities.  How does a team get extra scoring opportunities?  They grab more rebounds on the offensive end and prevent the other team from doing the same. They force more turnovers on the opponent than they commit, and they capitalize on steals for easier scoring opportunities.  A steal is much more valuable than any other turnover, because more points per possession are scored following a steal than any other situation.

Thus, for many years, we tried to simulate how many potential extra points a team might experience through superior rebounding and protecting the ball.  We created our R+T Rating and used this formula with great success to predict which teams might advance to the later rounds of the tournament, the Final Four, and the Championship.

In many of the seasons, if the top R+T Rating belonged to a Power Conference team, we made them our favorite to win all the marbles, and we were rewarded multiple times.  We even picked a couple of upset dark horses along the way like Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler to make it to the Final Four.  We even isolated on Connecticut to make a run in the year where they broke all the criteria and won the Championship from way back in the pack.

In this time of advanced statistics, we have been trying to improve upon our R+T Rating with a new calculation, one that relies of rate stats over counting stats.  Rebound and turnover margin and steals per game have done well for us for two decades, but we realize there is a difference between rebounding margins.  If a team wins the rebounding battle 33-28, they have done much better than a team that wins the rebounding battle 43-37.  The R+T shows that the 43-37 result is better than the 33-28 result, but that is incorrect.  The 33-28 team retrieved better than 54% of the missed shots, while the 43-37 team only retrieved 53.8%.  Additionally, because offensive rebounding is so much more difficult than defensive rebounding, we really cannot tell which team did a better job.  What if the team that had 37 rebounds from among the four listed above happened to shoot a very low percentage in their game against the team that had 43 rebounds?  What if from the 80 rebounding opportunities in their game, 48 were at their offensive end of the floor and just 32 were at their defensive end of the floor?  What if this team had 14 offensive rebounds on the 48 rebounding opportunities at their offensive end and 23 rebounds from the 32.  By using the Rebounding Rate of the Four Factors, the team that lost the rebounding battle 43-37 actually performed a little better than the team that got the 43 rebounds by the count of 29.2% to 28.1%.

Thus, we are working on a new R+T Rate.  We have been trying to work out a linear regression line with six variables and a constant, and our friends, that is really hard to do, since it involves changing weights and constants over and over until the results are tighter and tighter to the line.  After a couple months, the line is getting there.  We have settled on the handicapping of each component of the stat and only have to deal with a constant that gives us the best back-tested accuracy.  We hope to debut the new R+T Rate just before the NCAA Tournament commences in Dayton.

February 10, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 10, 2020

Date

2/10/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

Maryland

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

West Virginia

Auburn

4

Villanova

Butler

Oregon

Penn St.

5

Kentucky

Michigan St.

Iowa

Creighton

6

LSU

Colorado

Marquette

Illinois

7

Arizona

Rutgers

Wisconsin

Michigan

8

Houston

Texas Tech

BYU

Ohio St.

9

USC

Purdue

Wichita St.

Arkansas

10

Saint Mary’s

Rhode Island

Oklahoma

Florida

11

Xavier

Indiana

Northern Iowa

Stanford

Virginia

12

E. Tennessee St.

Yale

S. F. Austin

Mississippi St.

VCU

13

Liberty

Vermont

New Mexico St.

North Texas

14

Bowling Green

Wright St.

Colgate

Hofstra

15

Winthrop

Little Rock

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Montana

Prairie View

Rider

Robert Morris

N. Carolina A&T

The Bubble Contenders

69

Arizona St.

70

Cincinnati

71

Memphis

72

Utah St.

73

Minnesota

74

N. Carolina St.

75

Richmond

76

Syracuse

77

Notre Dame

78

Furman

 

 

February 7, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 7, 2020

Date

2/7/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

West Virginia

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

Maryland

Villanova

4

Butler

Auburn

Oregon

Michigan St.

5

Penn St.

Creighton

Kentucky

Iowa

6

LSU

Colorado

Arizona

Marquette

7

Illinois

Ohio St.

Rutgers

Houston

8

Texas Tech

Wisconsin

Michigan

Wichita St.

9

BYU

Arkansas

USC

Saint Mary’s

10

Indiana

Rhode Island

Florida

Stanford

11

Xavier

Memphis

Northern Iowa

Virginia

Purdue

12

East Tennessee St.

Yale

Liberty

VCU

Cincinnati

13

Stephen F. Austin

North Texas

Vermont

New Mexico St.

14

Wright St.

Colgate

Bowling Green

Little Rock

15

Hofstra

Winthrop

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Northern Colorado

Prairie View

Monmouth

Robert Morris

North Carolina A&T

The Bubble Contenders

69

Oklahoma

70

Mississippi St.

71

Arizona St.

72

Minnesota

73

Georgetown

74

Tulsa

75

Utah St.

76

Richmond

77

North Carolina St.

78

Providence

 

 

 

 

February 5, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 5, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:35 am

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Albany

Binghamton

10.5

Army

Boston University

-3.3

Butler

Villanova

3.7

Cal Poly

Long Beach St.

1.8

Cal St. Fullerton

UC Riverside

-0.7

Chattanooga

East Tennessee St.

-5.1

Drake

Bradley

-0.8

Evansville

Southern Illinois

-4.6

Florida

Georgia

8.8

Florida Intl.

Florida Atlantic

3.4

Furman

Mercer

12.9

Georgetown

Seton Hall

-1.4

Holy Cross

Loyola (MD)

-2.9

Incarnate Word

Sam Houston St.

-14.2

Indiana St.

Loyola (Chi)

0.1

Lamar

Central Arkansas

5.4

Lehigh

Colgate

-7.7

Louisville

Wake Forest

15.6

Memphis

Temple

8.1

Miami

North Carolina St.

-0.6

Minnesota

Wisconsin

2.7

Missouri St.

Illinois St.

6.2

Navy

American

3.1

Northwestern St.

Abilene Christian

-5.1

Notre Dame

Pittsburgh

5.7

Oklahoma St.

TCU

2.8

Ole Miss

South Carolina

0.4

Omaha

North Dakota St.

-1.8

Providence

Creighton

-1.5

Purdue

Iowa

1.2

Purdue Fort Wayne

Western Illinois

7.6

Saint Louis

Duquesne

2.9

Samford

Western Carolina

-5.1

Southeast Louisiana

Houston Baptist

5.4

St. Bonaventure

George Washington

8.3

Stephen F. Austin

Nicholls St.

8.5

Stony Brook

UMass Lowell

12.2

Texas A&M-CC

McNeese St.

-0.9

UMBC

Hartford

0.9

UNC Greensboro

Citadel

20.0

Utah St.

UNLV

10.9

Valparaiso

Northern Iowa

-6.4

Vanderbilt

LSU

-10.0

Vermont

Maine

21.9

Virginia

Clemson

6.3

VMI

Wofford

-5.6

West Virginia

Iowa St

12.5

 

Top Eight Basketball Games on TV Wednesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:00 PM

CBSSN

Indiana St.

Loyola (Chi)

6:30 PM

FS1

Butler

Villanova

7:00 PM

BTN

Purdue

Iowa

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Saint Louis

Duquesne

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Florida

Georgia

7:30 PM

ESPN+

Stephen F. Austin

Nicholls St.

8:30 PM

FS1

Georgetown

Seton Hall

9:00 PM

BTN

Minnesota

Wisconsin

 

 

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