The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Final Polls

Congratulations go to Coach Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the National Championship in a thrilling overtime victory over the Georgia Bulldogs.  Alabama wins the top spot in all three ratings, plus the retro rankings.  Here’s how the final numbers crunched.

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Ohio St.
4 Wisconsin
5 Central Florida
6 Penn St.
7 Clemson
8 Oklahoma
9 Notre Dame
10 Auburn
11 TCU
12 Michigan St.
13 Miami (Fla)
14 USC
15 Washington
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Northwestern
18 North Carolina St.
19 Iowa
20 Stanford
21 Virginia Tech
22 Mississippi St.
23 LSU
24 Memphis
25 Boise St.
26 Michigan
27 Iowa St.
28 Wake Forest
29 South Florida
30 Louisville
31 South Carolina
32 Washington St.
33 Toledo
34 Florida Atlantic
35 Boston College
36 Florida St.
37 Texas
38 Purdue
39 Kansas St.
40 San Diego St.
41 Fresno St.
42 Troy
43 Army
44 Navy
45 Texas A&M
46 Duke
47 Georgia Tech
48 Oregon
49 Utah
50 West Virginia
51 Missouri
52 Arizona St.
53 Houston
54 Texas Tech
55 Kentucky
56 Arizona
57 UCLA
58 Appalachian St.
59 Ohio
60 Indiana
61 Ole Miss
62 Pittsburgh
63 California
64 Northern Illinois
65 Temple
66 SMU
67 Minnesota
68 Marshall
69 North Texas
70 Virginia
71 Wyoming
72 Florida
73 Syracuse
74 Maryland
75 Central Michigan
76 Colorado
77 Colorado St.
78 Nebraska
79 Western Michigan
80 Louisiana Tech
81 Tulane
82 Vanderbilt
83 Arkansas St.
84 Southern Miss.
85 Florida Int’l.
86 Arkansas
87 Akron
88 Buffalo
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 Tennessee
92 North Carolina
93 UAB
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Rutgers
96 Air Force
97 New Mexico St.
98 UTSA
99 Miami (O)
100 Cincinnati
101 Tulsa
102 UNLV
103 Western Kentucky
104 Baylor
105 BYU
106 East Carolina
107 Nevada
108 Georgia St.
109 Massachusetts
110 Connecticut
111 Illinois
112 Old Dominion
113 UL-Monroe
114 Bowling Green
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 South Alabama
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Coastal Carolina
122 Georgia Southern
123 Kansas
124 Kent St.
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 136.9 133.5 135.8 135.4
2 Ohio St. 132.3 130.2 132.6 131.7
3 Georgia 130.8 130.0 131.4 130.7
4 Clemson 131.3 128.6 130.9 130.3
5 Penn St. 129.4 128.1 129.8 129.1
6 Oklahoma 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
7 Auburn 127.0 125.2 127.2 126.5
8 Washington 126.2 124.2 126.1 125.5
9 Wisconsin 126.4 123.9 125.5 125.3
10 Oklahoma St. 121.2 120.4 121.6 121.1
11 Stanford 120.6 119.0 119.9 119.8
12 U S C 120.1 119.2 119.8 119.7
13 L S U 118.5 116.3 118.8 117.9
14 Virginia Tech 118.1 117.6 117.9 117.8
15 Miami 118.6 117.4 117.5 117.8
16 T C U 118.0 116.5 118.2 117.6
17 N. Carolina St. 117.1 116.2 117.0 116.8
18 Central Florida 116.0 116.9 117.2 116.7
19 Louisville 116.8 116.0 116.5 116.4
20 Notre Dame 116.6 115.4 116.8 116.2
21 Florida St. 116.9 116.0 115.7 116.2
22 Northwestern 115.4 114.2 115.5 115.0
23 Iowa 114.3 114.5 113.6 114.2
24 Michigan 114.2 114.0 113.4 113.9
25 Mississippi St. 113.5 113.3 113.3 113.4
26 Memphis 113.2 112.5 114.0 113.2
27 Iowa State 112.8 112.8 113.9 113.2
28 Texas 112.9 112.9 113.5 113.1
29 Kansas St. 112.9 112.7 113.0 112.9
30 Boston College 112.6 112.3 112.6 112.5
31 Michigan St. 111.0 111.6 112.1 111.6
32 Wake Forest 112.1 110.4 112.2 111.6
33 Duke 111.1 110.0 110.4 110.5
34 Utah 109.9 109.9 110.1 110.0
35 Oregon 110.5 108.6 109.9 109.7
36 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
37 Washington St. 109.8 107.7 109.3 108.9
38 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
39 S. Carolina 109.1 108.3 108.2 108.5
40 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
41 Missouri 108.5 107.1 107.8 107.8
42 Boise St. 107.5 106.1 107.6 107.1
43 Texas A&M 107.9 106.0 107.0 107.0
44 West Virginia 106.7 107.4 106.7 106.9
45 Arizona St. 106.4 105.3 106.0 105.9
46 Kentucky 106.4 105.7 105.0 105.7
47 Purdue 105.6 105.4 106.1 105.7
48 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
49 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
50 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
51 Arizona 106.0 104.9 104.9 105.3
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Florida Atlantic 103.4 104.9 105.3 104.5
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 Navy 103.5 104.1 103.7 103.8
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 U C L A 103.0 102.4 102.3 102.6
58 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
59 San Diego St. 101.5 101.5 102.5 101.8
60 Houston 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Army 100.9 100.8 101.3 101.0
63 Appalachian St. 101.2 100.0 101.4 100.9
64 Toledo 100.1 100.1 102.1 100.8
65 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Troy 99.7 99.8 99.9 99.8
68 Fresno St. 99.9 98.6 100.8 99.8
69 Colo. State 99.8 99.1 99.7 99.5
70 Virginia 99.6 98.6 99.9 99.4
71 Ohio U 98.3 99.6 99.3 99.1
72 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
73 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
74 Temple 98.2 98.5 98.8 98.5
75 Wyoming 97.8 96.9 97.2 97.3
76 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
77 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.0 95.8 95.2
79 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
80 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
81 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
82 Arkansas St. 93.8 95.0 94.7 94.5
83 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
84 SMU 94.0 94.5 94.3 94.3
85 Utah St. 94.0 93.3 93.7 93.7
86 Marshall 92.4 93.5 93.8 93.3
87 Central Michigan 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.1
88 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
89 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
90 Louisiana Tech 90.8 92.4 91.6 91.6
91 Middle Tennessee 90.4 91.4 91.6 91.1
92 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 Massachusetts 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
98 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
99 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
100 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.0 88.4 88.0
101 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
102 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.4 87.8 87.9
103 N. Texas 86.4 87.8 86.9 87.0
104 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
105 N. Mexico St. 86.8 85.7 86.9 86.5
106 W. Kentucky 85.7 86.2 86.1 86.0
107 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
108 Akron 84.2 86.1 84.9 85.1
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 82.7 82.7 82.5 82.7
113 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
114 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
115 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
116 UL-Monroe 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
117 S. Alabama 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
118 Idaho 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
119 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
120 UAB 79.6 79.9 81.3 80.3
121 UL-Lafayette 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
122 Georgia Southern 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
123 Coastal Carolina 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
124 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
           
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.7 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 B12 109.8 109.9 110.0 109.9
4 P-12 109.4 108.1 108.6 108.7
5 BTEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 IND 99.1 98.6 99.2 99.0
7 AAC 97.9 98.3 98.2 98.1
8 MWC 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.2 89.1 89.0 88.8
10 CUSA 84.4 85.8 85.2 85.1
11 SBC 84.3 85.0 84.3 84.5

 

 

 

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January 12, 2016

PiRate Ratings Final College Football For 2015-16 Season

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , — piratings @ 7:35 pm

Congratulations to the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the 2015-16 National Championship.

Final PiRate College Ratings For 2015-16

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Ohio St.
4 Stanford
5 Oklahoma
6 Michigan St.
7 Ole Miss
8 TCU
9 Michigan
10 Houston
11 Notre Dame
12 LSU
13 Iowa
14 Baylor
15 Tennessee
16 Florida St.
17 Utah
18 Wisconsin
19 North Carolina
20 Mississippi St.
21 Navy
22 Arkansas
23 Georgia
24 Oregon
25 Oklahoma St.
26 Florida
27 Western Kentucky
28 Toledo
29 USC
30 West Virginia
31 Northwestern
32 California
33 Washington
34 UCLA
35 Texas A&M
36 Washington St.
37 Auburn
38 Memphis
39 BYU
40 San Diego St.
41 Temple
42 Louisville
43 Boise St.
44 Bowling Green
45 Pittsburgh
46 Appalachian St.
47 Miami (Fla.)
48 Western Michigan
49 South Florida
50 Nebraska
51 Penn St.
52 Texas Tech
53 Arizona St.
54 Virginia Tech
55 Georgia Southern
56 Marshall
57 Duke
58 Minnesota
59 North Carolina St.
60 Arizona
61 Louisiana Tech
62 Southern Miss.
63 Kansas St.
64 Texas
65 Air Force
66 Cincinnati
67 Indiana
68 Arkansas St.
69 Illinois
70 Ohio
71 Northern Illinois
72 Missouri
73 Georgia Tech
74 Akron
75 Central Michigan
76 Utah St.
77 East Carolina
78 Virginia
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Connecticut
81 South Carolina
82 Vanderbilt
83 Iowa St.
84 Kentucky
85 Maryland
86 Tulsa
87 Syracuse
88 Colorado St.
89 San Jose St.
90 New Mexico
91 Colorado
92 Nevada
93 Rutgers
94 Boston College
95 Wake Forest
96 Georgia St.
97 Buffalo
98 Oregon St.
99 Purdue
100 South Alabama
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Ball St.
104 Florida Atlantic
105 Rice
106 SMU
107 Idaho
108 Old Dominion
109 Massachusetts
110 UNLV
111 UTEP
112 Louisiana-Lafayette
113 Fresno St.
114 Tulane
115 Kent St.
116 Miami (O)
117 Texas St.
118 UTSA
119 Kansas
120 New Mexico St.
121 Hawaii
122 Wyoming
123 Louisiana-Monroe
124 Army
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michgan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.6 131.3 133.8 132.9
2 Ohio St. 129.7 125.6 130.9 128.7
3 Oklahoma 128.1 124.5 128.4 127.0
4 Stanford 126.3 124.1 127.2 125.9
5 Ole Miss 126.4 122.2 126.2 124.9
6 Clemson 124.2 124.7 124.9 124.6
7 Baylor 123.7 120.1 123.9 122.6
8 Tennessee 122.4 118.9 122.9 121.4
9 TCU 122.9 115.5 123.6 120.7
10 LSU 121.4 117.9 121.4 120.2
11 North Carolina 120.3 120.1 119.5 120.0
12 Arkansas 121.6 116.5 121.4 119.8
13 Notre Dame 120.5 117.9 119.8 119.4
14 Michigan 118.6 116.0 118.5 117.7
15 Mississippi St. 118.2 115.2 118.6 117.3
16 Oregon 118.8 113.4 119.2 117.1
17 USC 118.5 114.0 117.1 116.5
18 UCLA 118.9 113.3 116.9 116.4
19 Michigan St. 117.3 114.6 116.9 116.3
20 Florida St. 115.4 116.7 115.0 115.7
21 Utah 118.0 112.5 116.3 115.6
22 Washington 115.7 112.6 115.5 114.6
23 Houston 111.6 116.9 114.1 114.2
24 Georgia 115.9 111.2 114.9 114.0
25 Auburn 114.8 112.1 114.0 113.6
26 California 115.2 110.8 114.8 113.6
27 Texas A&M 115.1 111.7 112.7 113.2
28 West Virginia 115.2 109.5 114.6 113.1
29 Wisconsin 112.8 112.2 112.4 112.5
30 Arizona St. 114.1 109.2 113.7 112.3
31 Oklahoma St. 113.4 109.9 112.4 111.9
32 Western Kentucky 109.7 111.1 111.8 110.9
33 Florida 111.7 108.4 111.2 110.4
34 Iowa 109.9 110.9 110.2 110.3
35 San Diego St. 108.2 112.5 109.8 110.2
36 Louisville 109.3 110.7 109.6 109.9
37 Boise St. 110.1 108.2 110.6 109.6
38 Nebraska 110.1 108.4 109.8 109.4
39 Virginia Tech 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
40 BYU 108.2 108.1 109.3 108.5
41 Navy 106.4 110.3 107.8 108.2
42 Washington St. 108.7 105.7 109.8 108.1
43 Bowling Green 105.7 110.2 108.2 108.0
44 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
45 North Carolina St. 107.7 108.3 105.8 107.3
46 Memphis 106.5 107.1 106.3 106.6
47 Temple 105.3 107.9 106.3 106.5
48 Toledo 105.3 107.0 107.0 106.4
49 Pittsburgh 106.0 106.7 106.0 106.2
50 Miami 105.9 106.1 106.7 106.2
51 Texas 107.5 103.4 107.3 106.1
52 South Carolina 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
53 Arizona 107.7 102.5 106.4 105.5
54 Missouri 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
55 Western Michigan 103.1 104.5 105.0 104.2
56 Minnesota 104.9 103.6 103.9 104.1
57 Northwestern 104.1 103.9 103.9 104.0
58 South Florida 101.9 107.1 102.8 103.9
59 Texas Tech 106.5 98.9 106.3 103.9
60 Penn St. 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
61 Colorado 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
62 Duke 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
63 Illinois 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
64 Kansas St. 105.7 97.4 105.1 102.7
65 Virginia 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
66 Georgia Southern 100.0 103.1 102.5 101.9
67 Indiana 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
68 Boston College 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
69 Cincinnati 99.5 101.2 100.4 100.4
70 Louisiana Tech 99.5 100.2 100.9 100.2
71 Kentucky 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
72 Southern Mississippi 99.0 100.9 99.9 99.9
73 Air Force 98.5 101.0 98.4 99.3
74 Iowa St. 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
75 Vanderbilt 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
76 Marshall 97.9 98.7 97.7 98.1
77 Appalachian St. 96.1 99.2 97.4 97.6
78 Wake Forest 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
79 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
80 Utah St. 96.4 97.1 94.8 96.1
81 Syracuse 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
82 Middle Tennessee 96.1 95.5 95.7 95.8
83 Arkansas St. 94.0 95.4 95.7 95.0
84 Northern Illinois 93.2 96.7 93.5 94.5
85 Purdue 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
86 Maryland 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
87 San Jose St. 92.6 94.8 93.1 93.5
88 Connecticut 91.0 95.3 92.2 92.8
89 Tulsa 91.0 95.0 92.4 92.8
90 New Mexico 92.5 93.3 92.2 92.7
91 Central Michigan 90.5 94.2 92.0 92.2
92 Colorado St. 92.2 92.9 91.3 92.1
93 Rutgers 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
94 Nevada 90.3 94.0 91.0 91.8
95 Ohio 89.1 93.5 91.4 91.3
96 Akron 87.3 93.6 89.6 90.2
97 Oregon St. 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
98 Georgia St. 85.8 87.3 86.7 86.6
99 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
100 Troy 84.2 85.5 84.8 84.8
101 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
102 SMU 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
103 Massachusetts 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
104 Buffalo 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
105 Tulane 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
106 UNLV 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
107 Army 79.1 86.6 80.4 82.0
108 Fresno St. 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
109 Wyoming 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
110 Rice 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
111 Ball St. 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
112 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
113 Old Dominion 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
114 Kent St. 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
115 Hawaii 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
116 UT-San Antonio 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
117 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
118 UL-Lafayette 76.6 79.1 76.3 77.3
119 South Alabama 75.0 79.8 75.9 76.9
120 Idaho 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
121 Central Florida 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
122 Texas St. 73.2 75.6 72.8 73.9
123 Eastern Michigan 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
124 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
125 New Mexico St. 72.6 73.8 72.0 72.8
126 Kansas 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
127 UL-Monroe 71.4 71.4 71.7 71.5
128 Charlotte 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9

 

PiRate Ratings

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 7-1 10-4 105.3 107.9 106.3 106.5
South Florida 6-2 8-5 101.9 107.1 102.8 103.9
Cincinnati 4-4 7-6 99.5 101.2 100.4 100.4
East Carolina 3-5 5-7 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
Connecticut 4-4 6-7 91.0 95.3 92.2 92.8
Central Florida 0-8 0-12 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 7-1 13-1 111.6 116.9 114.1 114.2
Navy 7-1 11-2 106.4 110.3 107.8 108.2
Memphis 5-3 9-4 106.5 107.1 106.3 106.6
Tulsa 3-5 6-7 91.0 95.0 92.4 92.8
SMU 1-7 2-10 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
Tulane 1-7 3-9 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
             
AAC Averages     95.7 99.1 96.4 97.0

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 8-0 14-1 124.2 124.7 124.9 124.6
Florida St. 6-2 10-3 115.4 116.7 115.0 115.7
Louisville 5-3 8-5 109.3 110.7 109.6 109.9
North Carolina St. 3-5 7-6 107.7 108.3 105.8 107.3
Boston College 0-8 3-9 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 8-0 11-3 120.3 120.1 119.5 120.0
Virginia Tech 4-4 7-6 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
Georgia Tech 1-7 3-9 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
Pittsburgh 6-2 8-5 106.0 106.7 106.0 106.2
Miami 5-3 8-5 105.9 106.1 106.7 106.2
Duke 4-4 8-5 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
Virginia 3-5 4-8 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.1 107.2 107.6

 

Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-2 128.1 124.5 128.4 127.0
Baylor 6-3 10-3 123.7 120.1 123.9 122.6
TCU 7-2 11-2 122.9 115.5 123.6 120.7
West Virginia 4-5 8-5 115.2 109.5 114.6 113.1
Oklahoma St. 7-2 10-3 113.4 109.9 112.4 111.9
Texas 4-5 5-7 107.5 103.4 107.3 106.1
Texas Tech 4-5 7-6 106.5 98.9 106.3 103.9
Kansas St. 3-6 6-7 105.7 97.4 105.1 102.7
Iowa St. 2-7 3-9 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
Kansas 0-9 0-12 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
             
Big 12 Averages     109.9 104.4 109.5 107.9

 

Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 12-1 129.7 125.6 130.9 128.7
Michigan 6-2 10-3 118.6 116.0 118.5 117.7
Michigan St. 7-1 12-2 117.3 114.6 116.9 116.3
Penn St. 4-4 7-6 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
Indiana 2-6 6-7 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
Maryland 1-7 3-9 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
Rutgers 1-7 4-8 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 6-2 10-3 112.8 112.2 112.4 112.5
Iowa 8-0 12-2 109.9 110.9 110.2 110.3
Nebraska 3-5 6-7 110.1 108.4 109.8 109.4
Minnesota 2-6 6-7 104.9 103.6 103.9 104.1
Northwestern 6-2 10-3 104.1 103.9 103.9 104.0
Illinois 2-6 5-7 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
Purdue 1-7 2-10 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.7 106.7 106.5

 

Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 8-0 12-2 109.7 111.1 111.8 110.9
Marshall 6-2 10-3 97.9 98.7 97.7 98.1
Middle Tennessee 6-2 7-6 96.1 95.5 95.7 95.8
Florida Atlantic 3-5 3-9 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
Florida International 3-5 5-7 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
Charlotte 0-8 2-10 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 6-2 9-4 99.5 100.2 100.9 100.2
Sou. Mississippi 7-1 9-5 99.0 100.9 99.9 99.9
Rice 3-5 5-7 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
UTEP 3-5 5-7 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
UT-San Antonio 3-5 3-9 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
North Texas 1-7 1-11 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
             
CUSA Averages     86.2 88.2 86.5 87.0

 

FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   10-3 120.5 117.9 119.8 119.4
BYU   9-4 108.2 108.1 109.3 108.5
Army   2-10 79.1 86.6 80.4 82.0
             
Independents Averages     102.6 104.2 103.2 103.3

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 7-1 10-4 105.7 110.2 108.2 108.0
Ohio 5-3 8-5 89.1 93.5 91.4 91.3
Akron 5-3 8-5 87.3 93.6 89.6 90.2
Massachusetts 2-6 3-9 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
Buffalo 3-5 5-7 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
Kent St. 2-6 3-9 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
Miami (O) 2-6 3-9 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-2 10-2 105.3 107.0 107.0 106.4
Western Michigan 6-2 8-5 103.1 104.5 105.0 104.2
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-6 93.2 96.7 93.5 94.5
Central Michigan 6-2 7-6 90.5 94.2 92.0 92.2
Ball St. 2-6 3-9 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
Eastern Michigan 0-8 1-11 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
             
MAC Averages     87.7 91.5 88.9 89.4

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 5-3 9-4 110.1 108.2 110.6 109.6
Air Force 6-2 8-6 98.5 101.0 98.4 99.3
Utah St. 5-3 6-7 96.4 97.1 94.8 96.1
New Mexico 5-3 7-6 92.5 93.3 92.2 92.7
Colorado St. 5-3 7-6 92.2 92.9 91.3 92.1
Wyoming 2-6 2-10 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 8-0 11-3 108.2 112.5 109.8 110.2
San Jose St. 4-4 6-7 92.6 94.8 93.1 93.5
Nevada 4-4 7-6 90.3 94.0 91.0 91.8
UNLV 2-6 3-9 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
Fresno St. 2-6 3-9 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
Hawaii 0-8 3-10 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.5 91.5 92.3

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 8-1 12-2 126.3 124.1 127.2 125.9
Oregon 7-2 9-4 118.8 113.4 119.2 117.1
Washington 4-5 7-6 115.7 112.6 115.5 114.6
California 4-5 8-5 115.2 110.8 114.8 113.6
Washington St. 6-3 9-4 108.7 105.7 109.8 108.1
Oregon St. 0-9 2-10 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 6-3 8-6 118.5 114.0 117.1 116.5
UCLA 5-4 8-5 118.9 113.3 116.9 116.4
Utah 6-3 10-3 118.0 112.5 116.3 115.6
Arizona St. 4-5 6-7 114.1 109.2 113.7 112.3
Arizona 3-6 7-6 107.7 102.5 106.4 105.5
Colorado 1-8 4-9 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.7 112.3 111.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 5-3 9-4 122.4 118.9 122.9 121.4
Georgia 5-3 10-3 115.9 111.2 114.9 114.0
Florida 7-1 10-4 111.7 108.4 111.2 110.4
South Carolina 1-7 3-9 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
Missouri 1-7 5-7 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
Kentucky 2-6 5-7 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
Vanderbilt 2-6 4-8 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 14-1 133.6 131.3 133.8 132.9
Ole Miss 6-2 10-3 126.4 122.2 126.2 124.9
LSU 5-3 9-3 121.4 117.9 121.4 120.2
Arkansas 5-3 8-5 121.6 116.5 121.4 119.8
Mississippi St. 4-4 9-4 118.2 115.2 118.6 117.3
Auburn 2-6 7-6 114.8 112.1 114.0 113.6
Texas A&M 4-4 8-5 115.1 111.7 112.7 113.2
             
SEC Averages     115.5 112.0 114.9 114.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 6-2 9-4 100.0 103.1 102.5 101.9
Appalachian St. 7-1 11-2 96.1 99.2 97.4 97.6
Arkansas St. 8-0 9-4 94.0 95.4 95.7 95.0
Georgia St. 5-3 6-7 85.8 87.3 86.7 86.6
Troy 3-5 4-8 84.2 85.5 84.8 84.8
UL-Lafayette 3-5 4-8 76.6 79.1 76.3 77.3
South Alabama 3-5 5-7 75.0 79.8 75.9 76.9
Idaho 3-5 4-8 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
Texas St. 2-6 3-9 73.2 75.6 72.8 73.9
New Mexico St. 3-5 3-9 72.6 73.8 72.0 72.8
UL-Monroe 1-7 2-11 71.4 71.4 71.7 71.5
             
Sun Belt Averages     82.1 84.5 82.8 83.1

 

  

November 25, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowl Projections

This will be the penultimate week of College Football’s regular season. The current top 4 teams, Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Mississippi State, will probably not be the same top four teams by the time the committee meets again and issues the actual four teams in the playoffs in December, maybe more than a little different thanks to games this week.

There are numerous teams with 5-6 records needing to win their final game; some will lose and miss out on a bowl. Some will win and earn a trip to an “also-ran” bowl. Yet others will win but not be selected for a bowl.

The race to see which Group of 5 Conference top team will receive a bid to a Big Six Bowl could be decided this week, as Marshall hosts improving Western Kentucky, while Colorado State plays at in-state rival Air Force. Boise State clings to life hoping that the Thundering Herd and Rams both lose. Should Marshall lose either this week or next week in the Conference USA Championship Game, and both Colorado State and Boise State lose, then the door might be slightly ajar for a Cincinnati or Memphis to back into the Peach Bowl.

There are still playoff spots up for grabs in the conference championship game races.

In CUSA, the winner of this week’s Louisiana Tech-Rice game in Ruston, LA, will get the privilege of facing Marshall for the conference title.

There are still three teams alive in the MAC-West trying to advance to the conference championship game against Bowling Green. If Northern Illinois beats Western Michigan, the Huskies earn the nod. Should Western Michigan prevail, then Toledo would win the division if the Rockets take care of lowly Eastern Michigan. If EMU upsets Toledo, then Western Michigan would earn the spot if the Broncos beat NIU.

Both divisions of the Mountain West Conference are up for grabs. In the Mountain Division, Boise State controls their destiny. The Broncos win the division title with a win at home over Utah State. If the Aggies upset the Broncos, then they would take the division if Air Force beats Colorado State, but the Rams would win the division title if they beat the Falcons in Colorado Springs.

In the West Division, it’s almost ashamed that any team can still win this race, when CSU could finish 11-1 and not get into the championship. San Diego State and Fresno State are currently tied at 4-3 in league play. If both win this week, Fresno State would claim the division flag with a 6-6 overall record. Obviously, if one wins and one loses, the winner goes to the MWC Championship Game.

If the Aztecs and Bulldogs both lose to finish 4-4, then Hawaii will also be 4-4 by virtue of defeating Fresno State. Nevada can also get to 4-4 with a win over rival UNLV. In a four-way tie like this, Nevada would win the division based on best head-to-head record among the four tied teams. If Nevada loses to UNLV, and Hawaii wins over Fresno State, then the flag goes to Fresno due to their win over Nevada (and filtering through three prior tiebreakers to get to this point).

The Big Ten West goes to the team that claims Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Babe the Blue Ox wears number 25 for Wisconsin, and Minnesota may need axes to beat the Badgers in Madtown.

The Big 12 is still a three-team race. Baylor plays Texas Tech at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. The Bears control their own destiny and finish the regular season at home against Kansas State.

TCU plays a real trap game in Austin against Texas, and the Longhorns are a team nobody looks forward to playing in late November. TCU closes with a home game over Iowa State the following week.

Kansas State needs a little help to win the Big 12. The Wildcats should dismiss Kansas this week, and they need a Texas win over TCU. If that happens, then their game at Baylor would decide the Big 12 title.

The Pac-12 South is still a three-team race. USC and Utah were eliminated last week. If UCLA defeats Stanford in Pasadena Friday, the Bruins win the division. If Stanford wins, then the winner of the Arizona-Arizona State game Friday in Tucson advances to the Pac-12 Championship Game. Remember that Arizona penned the lone loss on North Division champion Oregon.

Finally, in the Southeastern Conference, both division races are yet to be decided. In the East, if Missouri beats Arkansas, the Tigers win the East with a 7-1 record. If Arkansas wins, then Georgia claims the title. In the West, if Alabama beats Auburn or Ole Miss beats Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide wins the division crown. If Auburn beats Alabama and Mississippi State wins The Egg Bowl, then Mississippi State wins the division title.

Should the West Division champion lose to Missouri or Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the committee will have a difficult time selecting a two-loss SEC champion over any of the one-loss teams in the other Power 5 conferences.

Here is our current look at Playoff and Bowl Projections by conference.

If a team is bracketed thusly, [ Team ], they are an at-large selection.

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference

Central Florida has a tough game at East Carolina remaining, and we believe the Pirates will prevail. Cincinnati has a tough game at Temple remaining, but we believe the Bearcats will win in Philly. Memphis has just one game left to play, at home against Connecticut. A win over the lowly Huskies gives the Tigers the AAC Championship. Unfortunately, winning the AAC Title may only get the Memphians a trip down US 72 to Birmingham.

Temple is likely headed to a 6-6 record, and there will not be a contracted spot for the Owls. We believe Temple has little chance to earn an at-large bowl invitation, as the bowls most likely to need a replacement team are all several hundred miles away from the Keystone State.

1. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (7-1/9-4) vs. South Carolina
2. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (6-2/8-4) vs. Miami (Fla.)
3. Miami Beach Bowl: Cincinnati (7-1/9-3) vs. B Y U
4. Military Bowl: East Carolina (6-2/9-3) vs. North Carolina St.
5. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (5-3/7-5) vs. [ Ohio U ]

Bowl Eligible but no bowl: Temple (4-4/6-6)

Conference USA

Marshall fans were nervous for awhile last week as UAB gave the Thundering Herd all they could handle. A home finale against Western Kentucky might be an interesting high scoring game, but we believe MU will win by double digits. The CUSA Championship Game might be interesting for a quarter to a half, but MU looks to strong for any league opponent. We are sticking with Doc Holliday and his troops to be the initial Group of 5 Conference team to earn a Big Six Bowl bid.

1. Big Six—Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Marshall (8-0/13-0) vs. Georgia
2. Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (7-1/8-5) vs. Utah St.
3. Bahamas Bowl: Rice (5-3/7-5) vs. Toledo
4. New Mexico Bowl: U T E P (5-3/7-5) vs. Air Force
5. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (5-3/6-6) vs. Northern Illinois
6. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Western Kentucky (3-5/6-6)

Bowl Eligible but no bowl: Old Dominion (4-4/6-6), UAB (4-4/6-6)

Mid-American Conference

Fortunately, the Buffalo-Kent State game had no postseason implications as both teams had already been eliminated from bowl eligibility. It appears that there will be seven bowl eligible teams from the MAC for five guaranteed bowl bids. We believe one of the two other teams will earn the last bowl invitation. The MAC has been a little down this year, but it would not surprise us if the league goes 5-1 or even 6-0 in the bowls.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (7-1/9-4) vs. Rice
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (6-2/9-3) vs. Middle Tennessee
3. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Bowling Green (6-2/8-5) vs. Nevada
4. Camellia Bowl: Western Michigan (7-1/9-3) vs. South Alabama
5. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Central Michigan (5-3/7-5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
6. Armed Forces Bowl: [ Ohio (4-4/6-6) ] vs. Houston

Bowl Eligible but no bowl:Akron (4-4/6-6)

Mountain West Conference
We are going to go with Boise State over Utah State this week to secure the Mountain Division title, and then take the Broncos to win the Conference Championship Game the following week. We also believe Colorado State will win at Air Force. Regardless these four teams are the top quartet in the league and will receive the four

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (7-1/11-2) vs. Arizona St.
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (7-1/11-1) vs. Navy
3. Hawaii Bowl: Utah St. (6-2/9-4) vs. Louisiana Tech
4. New Mexico Bowl: Air Force (4-4/8-4) vs. U T E P
5. New Orleans Bowl: San Diego St. (5-3/7-5) vs. Arkansas St.
6. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Nevada (4-4/7-5) vs. Bowling Green

Note: Fresno State is projected to win the West Division and lose to Boise State to finish 6-7. In the past, special waivers have been made for 6-7 teams like this to accept a bowl invitation. Fresno could trump Ohio for an at-large bowl invitation in this instance, but we will leave the Bulldogs out this week.

Sunbelt Conference

Georgia Southern could win the Sunbelt with a perfect 8-0 conference record and a 9-3 overall record, but the Eagles will not get a bowl invitation. GSU can only earn a bowl bid if there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill all the bowls, and their will be more than enough teams this year.

Louisiana-Lafayette lost to a very hot Appalachian State team last week, but the Ragin’ Cajuns will still receive the top bowl offer from the SBC, due to Georgia Southern’s ineligibility. The New Orleans Bowl has selected ULL three years in a row, while the GoDaddy.com Bowl has become Arkansas State’s annual 13th game. This year, we believe the bowls might like to have a little variation. There will be two extra bowl eligible teams, and we are certain that at least one bowl needing an at-large representative will choose a team from this league.

1. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (7-1/8-4) vs. Central Michigan
2. New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas St. (5-3/7-5) vs. San Diego St.
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (5-3/6-6) vs. Western Michigan
4. Heart of Dallas Bowl: [ Texas St. (5-3/7-5) ] vs. Western Kentucky

Bowl Eligible but no bowl: Appalachian St. (6-2/7-5) and very deserving

Independents

Notre Dame is included in the Atlantic Coast Conference bowl tie-ins, and the Irish are dropping fast. A loss to USC could place Notre Dame in El Paso or Nashville in December.

BYU is the first team to know for sure where they are headed. The Cougars will play in the Miami Beach Bowl won or lose against California.

Navy needs one more win and has two chances. We believe the Middies will win out and finish 7-5, and their reward will be a possible Top 15 opponent.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (8-4) vs. Cincinnati
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (7-5) vs. Colorado St.

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida State is creeping closer and closer to the edge on slippery ground. The Seminoles cannot keep winning ugly like this and expect to remain in the Top Four if Baylor, TCU, and even Ohio State win big. A regular season finale against rival Florida is going to be a real fight, and the Seminoles then have to deal with Georgia Tech’s option offense in order to get to the Playoffs.

The Orange Bowl might prefer Florida State to lose to Florida and win the ACC Championship Game, because the Seminoles would head to Miami instead of the Playoffs and sport a 12-1 record. If FSU makes the Playoffs at 13-0, then a possible four-loss Georgia Tech team could end up in the Orange Bowl over three-loss Duke and Louisville teams and possible four-loss Clemson team.

Pittsburgh can still gain bowl eligibility with a mild upset win at Miami, while the Virginia-Virginia Tech game is a bowl qualifier for the winner and eliminator for the loser.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Florida St. (8-0/13-0) vs. Oregon
2. Big Six—Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (6-2/9-4) vs. Wisconsin
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (5-3/9-3) vs. Kansas St.
4. Gator Bowl: Louisville (5-3/9-3) vs. Ole Miss
5. Belk Bowl: Clemson (6-2/8-4) vs. Florida
6. Sun Bowl: Notre Dame (7-5) vs. Washington
7. Pinstripe Bowl: North Carolina (5-3/7-5) vs. Penn St.
8. Military Bowl: North Carolina St. (2-6/6-6) vs. East Carolina
9. Independence Bowl: Virginia (4-4/6-6) vs. Texas A&M
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Boston College (4-4/7-5) vs. Rutgers
11. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (Fla.) (4-4/7-5) vs. Central Florida

Big Ten

While we do not project Ohio State to make the Playoffs, mainly because we have the Buckeyes losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, we do believe that three league teams will receive Big Six Bowl invitations.

Not much has changed in the bowl pecking order here. We have removed Michigan from the bowl list, because a loss to Ohio State will leave the Wolverines at 5-7. The winner of the Illinois-Northwestern game in Evanston will decide the last league bowl representative.

1. Big Six—Orange Bowl: Wisconsin (7-1/11-2) vs. Georgia Tech
2. Big Six—Cotton Bowl: Ohio St. (8-0/11-2) vs. T C U
3. Big Six—Fiesta Bowl: Michigan St. (7-1/10-2) vs. Baylor
4. Buffalo Wild Wings (Citrus) Bowl: Iowa (5-3/8-4) vs. Missouri
5. Outback Bowl: Nebraska (4-4/8-4) vs. Auburn
6. Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (5-3/8-4) vs. Arizona
7. Music City Bowl: Maryland (5-3/8-4) vs. Tennessee
8. San Francisco Bowl: Northwestern (4-4/6-6) vs. U S C
9. Pinstripe Bowl: Penn St. (2-6/6-6) vs. North Carolina
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Rutgers (2-6/6-6) vs. Boston College

Big 12

Should Texas beat TCU and Kansas State beat Baylor, the Big 12 will lose all chances to place a team in the Playoffs. If both TCU and Baylor win out, then there is a chance one or even both could end up playing for all the marbles. What hurts the Big 12 is not having a conference championship game (which could hurt an 11-1 Mississippi State team if Alabama wins the SEC West).

Because of the likelihood that both Baylor and TCU will at least earn Big Six Bowl bids, and because four league teams, instead of the usual two or three, will fail to earn bowl eligibility, the Big 12 will not meet its obligations to supply enough teams to the contracted bowls. In fact, we believe two bowls will be forced to find alternatives.

1. Big Six—Cotton Bowl: T C U (8-1/11-1) vs. Ohio St.
2. Bix Six—Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (8-1/11-1) vs. Michigan St.
3. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (6-3/9-3) vs. U C L A
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Kansas St. (7-2/9-3) vs. Duke
5. Liberty Bowl: Texas (5-4/6-6) vs. Arkansas
6. Cactus Bowl: West Virginia (5-4/7-5) vs. Utah

Pac-12 Conference

Oregon slipped in November last year with a loss to Arizona that cost the Ducks any chance to finish in the top two of the final BCS standings. This year, they are playing for their Playoff lives. The Ducks should win their Civil War battle against Oregon State, but the game is at Reser Stadium, where the Beavers can be tough. The Pac-12 Championship Game then must be won to guarantee Oregon a spot in the Final Four.

U C L A was supposed to contend for a Playoff spot, but the Bruins lost one too many games to stay in the chase. Even if the SEC finishes with four two-loss teams, and Ohio State loses to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, it will be difficult for an 11-2 Bruins team to sneak into the Final Four.

California is 5-6 with a home game against BYU this week. The Bears have a chance to get to 6-6 and take the final at-large bowl bid away from Ohio, but we believe the Cougars will score 35-40 points and keep the Bears out of a bowl.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Oregon (8-1/12-1) vs. Florida St.
2. Alamo Bowl: U C L A (7-2/10-3) vs. Oklahoma
3. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (7-2/10-2) vs. Minnesota
4. San Francisco Bowl: U S C (6-3/8-4) vs. Northwestern
5. Sun Bowl: Washington (4-5/8-5) vs. Notre Dame
6. Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona St. (6-3/9-3) vs. Boise St.
7. Cactus Bowl: Utah (5-4/8-4) vs. West Virginia
8. Texas Bowl: [ Stanford (4-5/6-6) ] vs. L S U

Southeastern Conference

There are three questions this week with the SEC. The first one is the more important one. What happens to Mississippi State if the Bulldogs beat Ole Miss, while Alabama beats Auburn to earn the West Division flag? The Committee has indicated that conference champions will be given higher priority over non-conference champions. Mississippi State is still number four, but The Committee cannot place another team past the Bulldogs with the understanding that Baylor, TCU, or Ohio State could be a conference champion. Might the Big 12 Champion or Ohio State pass an idle Bulldog team in the final poll?

Question number two involves two teams still attempting to become bowl eligible. Tennessee is 5-6 with what amounts to a home game on their rival’s home field. The Volunteers should handle Vanderbilt easily to earn a bowl bid. Kentucky was once 5-1 and the sexy choice for contention for a Big Six bowl. At 5-1, we wrote that the Wildcats could easily lose their final six games and not go to a bowl. UK is one loss to Louisville away from making us soothsayers.

Question number three involves the SEC not wanting to give the Big 12 a chance to move Texas into the Texas Bowl against Texas A&M. The SEC most definitely will arrange for the Aggies to go to a bowl that cannot invite a Big 12 team. Thus, we believe another interesting matchup is possible. Look below at our Liberty Bowl projection.

1. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: Alabama (7-1/12-1) vs. Mississippi St.
2. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: Mississippi St. (7-1/11-1) vs. Alabama
3. Big Six—Peach Bowl: Georgia (6-2/10-2) vs. Marshall
4. Buffalo Wild Wings (Citrus) Bowl: Missouri (7-1/10-3) vs. Iowa
5. Outback Bowl: Auburn (4-4/8-4) vs. Nebraska
6. Gator Bowl: Ole Miss (4-4/8-4) vs. Louisville
7. Texas Bowl: L S U (4-4/8-4) vs. [ Stanford ]
8. Belk Bowl: Florida (4-4/6-5) vs. Clemson
9. Music City Bowl: Tennessee (3-5/6-6) vs. Maryland
10. Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (2-6/6-6) vs. Texas
11. Birmingham Bowl: South Carolina (3-5/7-5) vs. Memphis
12. Independence Bowl: Texas A&M (3-5/7-5) vs. Virginia

October 29, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowl Projections

For the projected bowl matchups, as well as ratings and predicted spreads, go to our website at:

http://www.piratings.webs.com

The committee has anted up and thrown out its opening bid, and the public is ready to call its bluff. The three of a kind known as the SEC West will not be the ultimate winning hand in this revolving poker game.

If you haven’t seen the opening ratings for the college football playoffs, it goes like this:

1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Auburn
4. Ole Miss
5. Oregon
6. Alabama
7. T C U
8. Michigan State
9. Kansas State
10. Notre Dame
11. Georgia
12. Arizona
13. Baylor
14. Arizona State
15. Nebraska
16. Ohio State
17. Utah
18. Oklahoma
19. L S U
20. West Virginia
21. Clemson
22. U C L A
23. East Carolina
24. Duke
25. Louisville

If the season ended today, there would be omelets served in New Orleans on New Year’s Day, as Ole Miss and Mississippi State would hook up to make the Sugar Bowl, the Egg Bowl, part deux. Florida State and Auburn would hook up in the Rose Bowl.

Of course, the season did not end Saturday, and these ratings are going to change, as these teams lose games. Ole Miss and Mississippi State will play in the real Egg Bowl, producing one loser. Ole Miss and Auburn play this week. Alabama still must play LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn. Auburn and Georgia must play. These teams will cannibalize each other, and it could end up with all the SEC teams suffering two losses.

Florida State has a trap game tomorrow night at Louisville, and the Seminoles may or may not have a legitimate running back able to play, while former Auburn star back Michael Dyer just emerged from a two year sabbatical to torch North Carolina State for 173 yards.

In the Big Ten, Michigan State and Ohio State must still face off in a couple weeks, and the winner of this game could face a one-loss Nebraska team in the Big Ten Championship Game, although we are not ready to say the Cornhuskers are headed to an 11-1 finish.

Oklahoma must still play Baylor in the Big 12, while Baylor must also still play Kansas State. TCU has games remaining against West Virginia and Kansas State. There could be no one-loss teams left here by December 7.

Out West, the Pac-12 is very competitive, and there are still one-loss teams in Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, and Utah. UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon State could all play spoiler.

Notre Dame still has one loss, but the Irish have tough road games against Arizona State and USC.

For those fans that want an eight-team playoff, you really have a chance to consider the rest of the season a 16-team playoff, because any of the top 16 could possibly move up into the top four depending on how all these crucial games turn out.

Let’s take a look at how we see the rest of the season playing out. It is surely not going to be this way, but we want to make it interesting to read, while still looking possible.

All won-loss records shown are predicted final records and not current records.

The Group of Five

These five conferences are the leagues competing for one guaranteed spot in the New Year’s Eve/Day Big Four Bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Cotton, Peach). As of today, East Carolina from the American Athletic Conference is the highest only rated team, but we believe the Pirates will stub their toe one more time this year and allow another team to pass them. Marshall, Central Florida, and Boise State appear to be the only two other teams capable of moving into the top spot.

American Athletic Conference
UCF lost two games early, but the Knights have run off five straight wins and look to be on a roll. Their season-ender at ECU will decide the league title, and we are going to stick with George O’Leary’s squad until somebody beats them.

East Carolina has a couple of tough games to play before hosting UCF on December 4. They venture to Temple this weekend and follow that up with a road game at Cincinnati after a bye week.

Cincinnati, Houston, and Memphis still hold feint hopes of backing into the crown, while Temple is looking for bowl eligibility for the first time since 2011, and the Owls have a tough closing schedule.

1. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (8-0/10-2)
2. Miami Beach Bowl: East Carolina (7-1/10-2)
3. Armed Forces Bowl: Houston (6-2/8-4)
4. Military Bowl: Cincinnati (6-2/8-4)
5. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (6-2/8-4)

Also Bowl Eligible: Temple (4-4/6-6)

Conference USA
Marshall has a better than 50-50 chance of running the table, and we believe the Thundering Herd has the best chance of winning the big prize for the Group of 5 teams. A road game against mediocre UAB and the conference title game, most likely against Louisiana Tech, are the only two possible road blocks. Coach Doc Holliday figures to be a key player in the Power 5 coaching carousel, as he may be the best recruiter in the business. He could be a wildcard in the Florida coaching search.

It looks like as many as seven CUSA teams will become bowl eligible for five guaranteed bids, but three will be mired at 6-6. Geography may help the league place all their bowl eligible teams in bowls if Marshall garners the big prize.

1. Peach Bowl: Marshall (8-0/13-0)
2. Hawaii Bowl: Louisiana Tech (7-1/8-5)
3. Bahamas Bowl: U T E P (5-3/7-5)
4. Boca Raton Bowl: Middle Tennessee (5-3/7-5)
5. New Mexico Bowl: Rice (4-4/6-6)
6. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Western Kentucky (3-5/6-6)
7. Independence Bowl (at-large invitation): U A B (4-4/6-6)

Mid-American Conference
Toledo is the highest-rated team, but the Rockets are too far down in the pecking order to contend for a New Year’s Big Four Bowl. Until a MAC team beats Toledo, we are going to call for the Rockets to run the table in the regular season. But, like in more than half the seasons, we believe the upset could send the underdog team to the top bowl.

The parity among the rest of the league means that as many as eight teams could get to six wins this year. The MAC is only allotted five bowls, so three teams could be left jilted at the end of the year, unless a Midwestern or Northeastern Bowl needs an at-large team.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Bowling Green (6-2/9-4)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo (8-0/9-4)
3. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Western Michigan (6-2/8-4)
4. Camellia Bowl: Central Michigan (6-2/8-4)
5. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Northern Illinois (4-4/7-5)

Also Bowl Eligible
Akron (5-3/7-5)
Ball State (5-3/6-6)
Ohio (4-4/6-6)

Mountain West Conference
Boise State’s loss at Air Force on September 27 is the only reason the Broncos are not the leading candidate from the Group of 5 leagues to make a New Year’s bowl. Their other loss is to Ole Miss, which is much better than East Carolina’s lone loss to South Carolina. If ECU loses again, and Marshall loses at all, the Broncos can earn the big bowl by winning out. A season finale against Utah State and a conference championship game against a weaker opponent is all that stands in their way of going 11-2.

Colorado State has just one loss this year, but it was to Boise State. The Rams could easily run the table and finish 11-1, and even with a win at Boston College, CSU does not figure to pass Boise State if the Broncos do not lose. Backroom politics could provide the Rams or Boise a shot at moving up to a better bowl even though there are no real rules for such a thing to happen. It has happened in the past.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State (7-1/11-2)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado State (7-1/11-1)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Utah State (6-2/9-4)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Air Force (4-4/8-4)
5. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada (5-3/8-5)
6. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego State (5-3/7-5)
7. Cactus Bowl (alternate affiliate): Fresno State (5-3/6-6)

Sunbelt Conference
The Sunbelt Conference is perpetually the weakest overall league, but it most frequently produces surplus bowl eligible teams that get selected to Southern bowls needing at-large teams. Look for more of the same this year, as there will be at least five bowl eligible SBC teams for just three bowl tie-ins. We believe four of the five bowl eligible teams will be playing late in December or early in January.

Louisiana-Lafayette and Georgia Southern do not play each other this season, and chances are decent that they both will finish unbeaten in league play to split the title. ULL has been to the New Orleans Bowl three years running, and they might as well start putting this game on their regular schedule, because the folks in the Big Easy would like nothing more than to invite the Ragin’ Cajuns for a fourth straight year.

1. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Georgia Southern (8-0/10-2)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (8-0/9-3)
3. Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State (6-2/8-4)
4. Independence Bowl (at-large invitation): South Alabama (5-3/6-6)

Also Bowl Eligible: Texas State (5-3/7-5)

Independents
Notre Dame is part of the Power 5 and not included in this section. Army, BYU, and Navy are all guaranteed specific bowls if they become bowl eligible. BYU is fading fast, but the Cougars should get that sixth win with UNLV and Savannah State still on the schedule. Navy might need an unbelievable 13th consecutive win over Army to get to six wins, but as of this week, we believe the Midshipmen will do it. Army will not get there this year, as the Black Knights have losses to Yale and Kent State. Navy will be their bowl game on December 13 in Baltimore.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (6-6)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (6-6)

The Power 5

Atlantic Coast Conference
Florida State can ill afford to drop an ACC game and expect to stay ahead of a host of other one-loss teams. The Seminoles have a lot of outside interference getting in their way at the present time, and a Thursday night nationally televised game at Louisville looks tricky at the moment. FSU must consider this game their “Sweet 16” round game in the playoffs, with their “Elite 8” game coming in the ACC Championship Game.

Duke is still technically alive for the Playoffs, but the Blue Devils would have to run the table and then handily defeat a 12-0 FSU team to have even a remote chance of finishing in the top four. A Duke team at 11-2 and as the highest ranked ACC team after Florida State, could force the Orange Bowl to invoke their clause, where they could invite Big Ten and SEC opponents, forcing Duke into the Buffalo Wild Wings (formerly Capital One) Bowl.

Notre Dame is included in the ACC grouping, and the Irish need to finish 11-1 or 10-2 to earn a Big Four New Year’s bowl. We believe they will.

Clemson is still in the mix for an Orange Bowl bid, but the Tigers must handle arch-rival South Carolina and still have a tricky game at Georgia Tech. We aren’t sure CU has the horses this year to win both games.

Louisville has a lot riding on their big game tomorrow night against Florida State. If the Cardinals win, they could possibly get on a roll, win at both Boston College and Notre Dame and finish 10-2 to get into the mix for the Orange Bowl. If they lose a heartbreaker, things could go the other way, and UL could be 6-5 when they host Kentucky on November 29.

The Coastal Division is looking more and more mixed up. Duke controls their own destiny, while the other six teams could all finish 6-6 or better. We believe one team will sink in the sunset while allowing the other teams to get bowl eligible. Virginia has suffered some disheartening losses this year, and we believe the Cavaliers will fall apart and fail to get to six wins.

Even with Notre Dame included in the bowl tie-ins, because both the Irish and Florida State appear to be headed to games outside the ACC contracts, this league will fall two teams shy in their obligations to bowls, opening up room for two other Southern bowl eligible teams to gain tickets to the waltz.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Florida State (8-0/13-0)
2. Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame (10-2)
3. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Duke (7-1/11-2)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Clemson (7-1/9-3)
5. Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech (5-3/8-4)
6. Belk Bowl: Louisville (4-4/7-5)
7. Sun Bowl: Virginia Tech (4-4/7-5)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (4-4/7-5)
9. Military Bowl: North Carolina (4-4/6-6)
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Miami (5-3/8-4)

Big Ten Conference
The Michigan State and Ohio State winner should sneak up into the top four if that team wins the Big Ten Championship Game as well. We believe that will happen, and the loser of the OSU-MSU game will still earn a Big Four New Year’s bowl with two losses.

With two teams expected to play in part of the overall Big Six bowl games, the Big Ten may not have enough bowl eligible teams for all their allotted spots. Teams like Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, and Northwestern still have work to do to get to six wins. Indiana and Purdue are not included as possible bowl eligible teams at this point. For sanity’s sake, and to provide a surplus of one team to become an a quality at-large bowl invitee, we will call for UM, RU, IU, and NU to all finish 6-6.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Michigan State (8-0/12-1)
2. Orange Bowl: Ohio State (7-1/10-2)
3. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Nebraska (5-3/9-3)
4. Outback Bowl: Wisconsin (6-2/9-4)
5. Holiday Bowl: Iowa (5-3/8-4)
6. Music City Bowl: Penn State (3-5/7-5)
7. San Francisco Bowl: Minnesota (4-4/7-5)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (2-6/6-6)
9. Quick Lane Bowl: Illinois (3-5/6-6)
10. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Maryland (3-5/6-6)
11. St. Petersburg Bowl (at-large invitation): Northwestern (5-3/6-6)

Big 12 Conference
This is the league where a one-loss team has the unfortunate best chance to miss out on the playoffs to a one-loss Big Ten team. TCU and Baylor may not garner the same prestige as Michigan State and Ohio State, and thus the loser of this political game may have to settle for a Cotton Bowl bid, while a second Big 12 team winds up in the Fiesta Bowl, and a third team could go to Atlanta in the Peach Bowl against the Group of 5 invitee.

Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas are virtually out of contention for bowl eligibility. With three teams expected to play in New Year’s bowls and just six probably bowl eligible teams, this league will not meet its obligations to supply seven bowls with teams.

1. Cotton Bowl: T C U (8-1/11-1)
2. Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (7-2/10-2)
3. Peach Bowl: Baylor (7-2/10-2)
4. Alamo Bowl: Kansas State (6-3/8-4)
5. Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia (6-3/8-4)
6. Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma St. (4-5/6-6)

Pac-12 Conference
The Pac-12 still has four one-loss teams in both Arizona’s, Utah, and Oregon. We believe one team will emerge at 12-1, but because we are picking Arizona to be that team, the Wildcats would have to leapfrog Michigan State, after the Spartans beat Ohio State and either Wisconsin or Nebraska.

Oregon may find itself a victim of geographical circumstances if the Ducks do not win out and finish 12-1. At 11-2, Oregon might take a backseat to two-loss teams more than 1,000 miles closer to bowls available.

If no team from this league makes the playoffs, there will be surplus bowl eligible teams, and this league will be at the top in priority when other bowls start to look for at-large invitees.

1. Fiesta Bowl: Arizona (8-1/12-1)
2. Alamo Bowl: Oregon (7-1/11-2)
3. Holiday Bowl: Arizona St. (7-2/10-2)
4. San Francisco Bowl: U C L A (6-3/9-3)
5. Sun Bowl: U S C (6-3/7-5)
6. Las Vegas Bowl: Washington (4-5/8-5)
7. Cactus Bowl: Stanford (5-4/7-5)
8. Texas Bowl (at-large invitation): Utah (4-5/7-5)
9. Armed Forces Bowl (at-large invitation): Oregon State (3-6/6-6)

Southeastern Conference
The league that perpetually wears the black hat or is like rooting for the Yankees once again appears to be the strongest of all, but cannibalization in November is going to remove at least one of the projected three playoff spots.

Mississippi State is number one and undefeated, but we do not believe the Bulldogs have a snowball’s chance of winning three incredibly tough games they would have to win to be 13-0 on December 7. With Alabama, Ole Miss, and a possible SEC Championship Game bout with Georgia lurking ahead in the next five weeks, nobody could be expected to win all three.

Alabama is the enigma. The Crimson Tide is not a juggernaut and cannot be expected to totally shut down opponents with their defense like in past years. However, their offense is capable of looking more like the Denver Broncos. Alabama has tough games left against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, and we believe they will stub their toe at least once and miss out on the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn also has three tough games in their way of making it to the SEC Championship Game, and it is too tough for the Tigers to beat Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama.

Ole Miss could easily lose to Auburn this week and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl to finish 9-3. They could also beat both teams to make it to the SEC Championship Game, but Georgia’s defense looks like it could stop the Rebels’ offense.

Somebody from the West must win the division flag and advance to the Championship Game, so we will go with Alabama for now, but we will also call for the Tide to lose to Georgia.

Georgia, the team from the East with little remaining resistance, looks to have a huge advantage to work out the kinks in their offense, get Todd Gurley back in November, and run the table, including winning the SEC Championship Game to sneak into the Playoffs. They will not be battered and bruised like the SEC West Champ.

In other bowl developments, look for Florida to miss out and finish 5-6. The Gators might try to arrange some type of backroom deal to get an invitation because they did not get to play Idaho, which would have been a for sure win to make them 6-6, but until the political stiffs come to that conclusion, we will leave the Gators out of the picture.

Kentucky and Tennessee are the two teams to watch. The Wildcats looked like a possible Buffalo Wild Wings or Outback Bowl contender two weeks ago, but consecutive losses to LSU and Mississippi State have put the Blue and White at the back of the pecking order. If the ‘Cats lose at Missouri this week, it is going to get iffy for the Blue Mist at 5-4. With games against Georgia, Tennessee, and Louisville, 5-7 is very possible.

As for Tennessee, the Volunteers are definitely the best 3-5 team in America with four top 20 losses. The schedule eases up quite a bit for the Big Orange in November, and it isn’t impossible that UT will win all four to finish 7-5. We believe 6-6 is almost assured, and Butch Jones will guide his squad into a bowl.

1. PLAYOFFS—Rose Bowl: Georgia (7-1/12-1)
2. PLAYOFFS—Sugar Bowl: Mississippi State (7-1/11-1)
3. Orange Bowl: Alabama (7-1/11-2)
4. Outback Bowl: Auburn (5-3/9-3)
5. Gator Bowl: Ole Miss (5-3/9-3)
6. Music City Bowl: L S U (5-3/9-3)
7. Belk Bowl: South Carolina (4-4/8-4)
8. Liberty Bowl: Tennessee (3-5/6-6)
9. Texas Bowl: Texas A&M (3-5/7-5)
10. Birmingham Bowl: Missouri (4-4/7-5)

October 15, 2014

PiRate Ratings College Football Playoffs and Bowls Coverage

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , — piratings @ 5:09 am

Note: You can find our award-winning ratings at http://www.piratings.webs.com

You can find numerous bowl projection sights on the Internet, so we see no reason to just put forth our projections like 100 others. The PiRate Ratings have always been a little different than other ratings. Our computer ratings use a system other than the actual scores of the games, using unique statistical data to come up with a truer score of every game before adjusting the ratings. Likewise, our bowl projections do not use the same criteria as other projectors.

We try to use our ratings to look forward and determine what the standings will look like on December 7. Then, we try to surmise the “political” nature of the bowls. For instance, you know that the ACC bowls would prefer to invite anybody other than Miami if they have a chance. When you cannot put 5,000 fans in your stadium for a home game against Cincinnati, another likely bowl team, it is not going to give a bowl like the Sun Bowl much faith that the Hurricanes will bring 20,000 fans to El Paso. Likewise, a 10-2 Auburn team is going to garner one of the big Bowl games not in the playoffs (Fiesta, Orange, Peach, or Cotton this year) before a 10-2 Washington team.

What we will do here is cover the bowls by conference. If you want to see the projections like 100 other sites, go to our website at the link below.

http://piratings.webs.com/bowlprojections.htm

Here is where we see the conferences and bowl possibilities for October 15, 2014.

Note: An Asterisk (*) means this is an at-large selection because the conference cannot meet its bowl tie-in obligation due to lack of bowl eligible team.

Non Big 5 Conferences

American Athletic Conference
East Carolina is the leader in the pack to be the guaranteed Big Bowl invitee from a non Big 5 automatic qualifying conference. The four big bowls not involved in the playoffs this year are the Fiesta, Orange, Peach, and Cotton. It will not be easy, since there are tough road games left at Temple and Cincinnati, as well as a Thursday, December 4 game at home against Central Florida, who could also be undefeated in conference play when they face off in Greenville.

Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Temple should all gain bowl eligibility. If ECU earns the big bowl invitation, there will be six spots available. We believe there will be six bowl eligible teams, so if the Pirates do not earn this spot, one AAC team will not be guaranteed a bowl.

1. Peach Bowl: East Carolina (vs. Notre Dame)
2. Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (vs. Kentucky)
3. St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida (vs. Miami)
4. Miami Beach Bowl: Houston (vs. B Y U)
5. Military Bowl: Temple (vs. Virginia)
6. Armed Forces Bowl: Cincinnati (vs. Northwestern *)

Conference USA
CUSA allows its champion to select its bowl destination from among the five tie-ins. It is a safe bet that the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Marshall is undefeated at 6-0, and the Thundering Herd has a legitimate path to running the table and hoping that East Carolina will fall and drop below them in the rankings. However, we PiRates are a little different. At the moment, we are not even picking Marshall to win the division. A September 20 win at Akron has been their only impressive victory to date. We believe MU will stumble in a November 22 game at UAB, and the surprising Blazers will sneak through as division winners. UAB took current number one Mississippi State deep into the game before losing and has just one semi-tough conference road game yet to play.

The West Division looks like Louisiana Tech’s for the taking. The Bulldogs should take advantage of North Texas and UTSA having subpar seasons and outlast Rice for the division flag.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Louisiana Tech (vs. Toledo)
2. Hawaii Bowl: Marshall (vs. Air Force)
3. Boca Raton Bowl: U A B (vs. Northern Illinois)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Western Kentucky (vs. Utah St.)
5. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Rice (vs. Utah *)

Independents
We do not include Notre Dame in the Independents section, since they caucus with the ACC. The other three Indies all have bowl tie-ins, but only BYU figure to be bowl eligible, as neither Army nor Navy show promise to get to six wins.

1. Miami Beach Bowl: B Y U (vs. Houston)

Mid-American
This is one year where the MAC will not have a highly-ranked team. Northern Illinois has already lost twice, and Toledo has fallen thrice in nonconference play. Still, five teams will receive invitations, and seven should be bowl eligible with a slim possibility that a sixth team earns an at-large spot.

Akron has the most impressive non-league win at Pittsburgh, but the Zips have lost to Penn State and Marshall.

The West should be decided this weekend when Central Michigan travels to Toledo.

1. Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (vs. Louisiana Tech)
2. Boca Raton Bowl: Northern Illinois (vs. UAB)
3. Idaho Potato Bowl: Akron (vs. San Diego St.)
4. Camellia Bowl: Bowling Green (vs. South Alabama)
5. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Central Michigan (vs. Georgia Southern)

Mountain West
It has been five seasons since Boise State played in a big bowl. It will be six, as the Broncos have two losses this year. The Broncos only chance is to run the table and hope both Marshall and East Carolina stub their toes. Boise finishes the regular season at home against Utah State, and the winner of that game should take the Mountain Division title, although Colorado State is still in the mix.

In the West Division, we believe 5-3 will get a team a share of the division flag, and we believe three teams will finish with that mark. San Diego State, Nevada, and Fresno State appear to be headed toward a three-way tie, but FSU will have just one non-league victory, while the other two will have two and seven total wins.

1. Las Vegas Bowl: Boise St. (vs. Stanford)
2. Poinsettia Bowl: Colorado St. (vs. Arizona St. *)
3. Hawaii Bowl: Air Force (vs. Marshall)
4. New Mexico Bowl: Utah St. (vs. Western Kentucky)
5. New Orleans Bowl: Nevada (vs. Louisiana-Lafayette)
6. Idaho Potato Bowl: San Diego St. (vs. Akron)

Sunbelt
This may be the weakest overall FBS conference, and many of its former better members have fled to Conference USA, but the SBC should produce six bowl eligible teams, and five should end up in bowls.

Georgia Southern may be in its first year as an official FBS member, but the Eagles look to be the top team in the league. They do not play Louisiana-Lafayette, and the only tough conference opponent left on their schedule is a home finale against Louisiana-Monroe.

Arkansas State continues to play well with yet another first-year coach, and we expect the Red Wolves to play in a bowl for the fourth consecutive season.

Louisiana-Lafayette did not look particularly strong in September, but losses to Ole Miss and Boise State look a little different in October. The blowout win at Texas State last night showed that the Ragin’ Cajuns are the top competitor to Georgia Southern. A road game at Louisiana-Monroe could be the deciding factor.

1. GoDaddy.com Bowl: Georgia Southern (vs. Central Michigan)
2. New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana-Lafayette (vs. Nevada)
3. Camellia Bowl: South Alabama (vs. Bowling Green)
4. Heart of Dallas Bowl: Louisiana-Monroe * (vs. Rice)
5. Texas Bowl: Arkansas St. * (vs. Florida)

Big Five Conferences

Atlantic Coast
We might be able to see into the near future when it comes to the schedule, but we cannot do the same for the police blotter. Therefore, until there is news that might affect the outcome of this conference, we will assume that no Heisman Trophy quarterbacks will miss any games.

With Jameis Winston under center, Florida State has a clear path to 13-0 and a spot in the playoffs. Without Winston, games at Louisville and at home with Virginia and Boston College are going to be losable. Of course, a home game this weekend against Notre Dame could be tough with Winston at QB. Clemson, Louisville, and Boston College will join the Seminoles in bowls, while North Carolina State and Syracuse appear to be just a little short in talent.

The Coastal Division can be taken once again with a 6-2 conference record, and after last week, we believe Duke is capable of being that team once again. Six of the seven Coastal representatives should be bowl eligible.

Notre Dame is included in the ACC when bowl bids are handed out, and the Fighting Irish are looking at 10-2, 11-1, or even 12-0. We believe at 10-2, the Irish will jump over many other teams to get a Big Bowl bid.

1. Playoff (Sugar Bowl): Florida St. (vs. Baylor)
2. Peach Bowl: Notre Dame (vs. East Carolina)
3. Russell Athletic Bowl: Duke (vs. Kansas St.)
4. Gator Bowl: Clemson (vs. Texas A&M)
5. Belk Bowl: Virginia Tech (vs. South Carolina)
6. Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech (vs. Oregon St.)
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College (vs. Rutgers)
8. Military Bowl: Virginia (vs. Temple)
9. Independence Bowl: Pittsburgh (vs. Missouri)
10. Quick Lane Bowl: Louisville (vs. Maryland)
11. St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (vs. Central Florida)

Big Ten
The Big Ten was given up for dead by October 4 when by then Ohio State had lost to Virginia Tech, Michigan State had lost to Oregon, Nebraska had lost to Michigan State, and Wisconsin had lost twice. However, we are not ready to give up on this league. Ohio State and Michigan State face off in East Lansing on November 8, and the winner of that game should win out to end the regular season at 12-1. With the SEC cannibalizing itself and with the Pac-12 looking to be the odd conference out, a 12-1 Big Ten champion should sneak into the playoff.

With 14 members and nine bowls, we believe 10 league teams will be bowl eligible. This will not be a problem, because we believe that the Big Ten will place one team in the playoffs and one team in a Big Bowl, allowing all 10 bowl eligible teams to play in a bowl.

1. Playoff (Rose Bowl): Ohio St. (vs. Ole Miss)
2. Orange Bowl: Michigan St. (vs. Auburn)
3. Capital One Bowl: Iowa (vs. Alabama)
4. Outback Bowl: Wisconsin (vs. Georgia)
5. Holiday Bowl: Nebraska (vs. Arizona)
6. Music City Bowl: Minnesota (vs. Tennessee)
7. San Francisco Bowl: Penn St. (vs. UCLA)
8. Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers (vs. Boston College)
9. Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland (vs. Louisville)
10. Armed Forces Bowl: Northwestern (vs. Cincinnati)

Big 12
The possibility is there for Baylor, Oklahoma, and TCU finishing 8-1/11-1. Baylor faces Oklahoma in Norman on November 8. For now, we are going to take the Bears all the way to the finish line, but that is not a solid choice.

Even if both Oklahoma and TCU lose a second game, it is close to a lock that a second Big 12 team will get one of the other four Big Bowl games. Because both Texas and Texas Tech look like they are headed to losing records, and Kansas and Iowa State are virtual locks to do the same, there will be just six bowl eligible teams here. Figuring that the league will send a second team to one of the Big Bowls, there will be six teams for eight spots, meaning the Texas and Heart of Dallas Bowls will have to find at-large invitees.

1. Playoff (Sugar Bowl): Baylor (vs. Florida St.)
2. Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma (vs. U S C)
3. Alamo Bowl: T C U (vs. Washington)
4. Russell Athletic Bowl: Kansas St. (vs. Duke)
5. Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma St. (vs. LSU)
6. Cactus Bowl: West Virginia (vs. Utah)

Pac-12
Arizona’s loss to USC puts the Pac-12 in a position where no team will finish 12-1, as the league is too balanced this year. USC’s loss at Boston College will prevent the Trojans from getting in. Oregon still has tough road games against Utah and Oregon State, and we believe the Ducks will drop one of these games. Washington has just one loss, but the Huskies still face Oregon at Autzen Stadium. We believe of the four Big 5 conferences, this league will be the odd man out in the playoffs in year one.

Nine teams should become bowl eligible, and the Pac-12 only receives seven guaranteed bowl bids. We believe the Pac-12 will place two teams in the Big Bowls of December 31/January 1. While losing out in the playoff chase, the conference will definitely trump all others and supply two at-large bowl bids and still come up one team short in their allotments.

1. Fiesta Bowl: U S C (vs. Oklahoma)
2. Cotton Bowl: Oregon (vs. Mississippi St.)
3. Alamo Bowl: Washington (vs. TCU)
4. Holiday Bowl: Arizona (vs. Nebraska)
5. San Francisco Bowl: U C L A (vs. Penn St.)
6. Sun Bowl: Oregon St. (vs. Georgia Tech)
7. Las Vegas Bowl: Stanford (vs. Boise St.)
8. Cactus Bowl: Utah (vs. West Virginia)
9. Poinsettia Bowl: Arizona St. * (vs. Colorado St.)

Southeastern
It has been repeated ad nauseum that the SEC West could supply all four playoff teams this year. Mississippi State and Ole Miss currently rank one and three nationally, and these two undefeated teams could both still lose twice! We don’t see that happening, as we believe one team will run the table and be the top-seeded school in the Playoff.

Alabama, the consensus choice to be the SEC’s first playoff representative has one loss and is still in the hunt, but we don’t see the Crimson Tide running the table from here. ‘Bama faces Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn in the weeks to come, and a second and possible third loss await the boys from Tuscaloosa.

The East is considerably weaker again, and Georgia benefits here. There is a chance the Bulldogs can run the table, if their defense can continue to play like it did at Missouri last week. There is also a chance UGA could lose at Arkansas this week and prove that the bottom team in the West is still better than the top team in the East.

Kentucky is one missed referee’s call from being 6-0, but we are not yet ready to buy in on the Wildcats being a Top 10 team. The Blue Mist is not even ranked at 5-1, so Coach Mark Stoops’ troops will have to earn respect by defeating a ranked team. UK gets that opportunity, because three of their next four games come against LSU, Mississippi State, and Georgia. Road contests against Missouri, Tennessee, and Louisville are not sure things, so there is still a remote possibility that Kentucky can drop six games in a row to finish out of the bowl picture. We do not see that happening.

Missouri and Tennessee still need to complete some unfinished business. Neither team has shown a propensity for playing tough on both sides of the ball in the same game. Missouri has four winnable games left and should get to six wins. Tennessee will need one upset in their final six. Ole Miss and Alabama look like sure losses, so the Vols will have to take care of South Carolina or Kentucky and defeat both Missouri and Vanderbilt to become bowl eligible. We are picking the orange and white to get that sixth win for now.

1. Playoff (Rose Bowl): Ole Miss (vs. Ohio St.)
2. Orange Bowl: Auburn (vs. Michigan St.)
3. Cotton Bowl: Mississippi St. (vs. Oregon)
4. Capital One Bowl: Alabama (vs. Iowa)
5. Outback Bowl: Georgia (vs. Wisconsin)
6. Gator Bowl: Texas A&M (vs. Clemson)
7. Music City Bowl: Tennessee (vs. Minnesota)
8. Liberty Bowl: L S U (vs. Oklahoma St.)
9. Texas Bowl: Florida (vs. Arkansas St. *)
10. Belk Bowl: South Carolina (vs. Virginia Tech)
11. Birmingham Bowl: Kentucky (vs. Memphis)
12. Independence Bowl: Missouri (vs. Pittsburgh)

The following six teams figure to be bowl eligible but jilted this season: Buffalo, Florida International, Fresno St., Middle Tennessee, Texas St., and Western Michigan

December 9, 2013

PiRate Ratings–College Football for December 14, 2013

One Regular Season Game Left

The Army-Navy game concludes the regular season this Saturday afternoon.  Navy has won 11 in a row in this series, and Black Knights’ coach Rich Ellerson could be coaching his last game for the USMA.  His team is beaten up, while Navy appears to be playing its best ball of the season since the first of November.

 

Since there is just one game, we will give you the ratings for this game here:

 

PiRate: Navy by 15.3

Mean: Navy by 11.6

Bias: Navy by 14.5

 

The Bowl Schedule

2013-14 Bowl Schedule

GAME DATE SITE TIME–ET TV
New Mexico

12/21/2013

Albuquerque 2:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Colorado St. (7-6) vs. Washington St. (6-6)

         
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

12/21/2013

Las Vegas 3:30pm ABC
Opponents:

Fresno St. (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

         
Famous Idaho Potato

12/21/2013

Boise, ID 5:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

San Diego St. (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-4)

         
New Orleans

12/21/2013

New Orleans 9:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

UL-Lafayette (8-4) vs. Tulane (7-5)

         
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

12/23/2013

St. Petersburg 2:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

         
Hawai’i

12/24/2013

Honolulu 8:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Boise St. (8-4) vs. Washington St. (6-6)

         
Little Caesars Pizza

12/26/2013

Detroit 6:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Bowling Green (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)

         
Poinsettia

12/26/2013

San Diego 9:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Utah St. (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

         
Military Bowl

12/27/2013

Washington, DC 2:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Maryland (7-5) vs. Marshall (9-4)

         
Texas

12/27/2013

Houston 6:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Minnesota (8-4) vs. Syracuse (6-6)

         
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

12/27/2013

San Francisco 9:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Washington (8-4) vs. BYU (8-4)

         
Pinstripe

12/28/2013

Bronx 12:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Rutgers (6-6) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

         
Belk

12/28/2013

Charlotte 3:20pm ESPN
Opponents:

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

         
Russell Athletic

12/28/2013

Orlando 6:45pm ESPN
Opponents:

Louisville (11-1) vs. Miami (9-3)

         
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

12/28/2013

Tempe, AZ 10:15pm ESPN
Opponents:

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. Michigan (7-5)

         
Armed Forces

12/30/2013

Ft. Worth, TX 11:45am ESPN
Opponents:

Navy (7-4*) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)

         
Music City

12/30/2013

Nashville 3:15pm ESPN
Opponents:

Ole Miss (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

         
Alamo

12/30/2013

San Antonio 6:45pm ESPN
Opponents:

Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon (10-2)

         
Holiday

12/30/2013

San Diego 10:15pm ESPN
Opponents:

Arizona St. (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

         
AdvoCare V100 Bowl

12/31/2013

Shreveport, LA 12:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Boston College (7-5) vs. Arizona (7-5)

         
Sun

12/31/2013

El Paso, TX 2:00pm CBS
Opponents:

Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. UCLA (9-3)

         
Liberty

12/31/2013

Memphis 4:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Mississippi St. (6-6) vs. Rice (10-3)

         
Chick-fil-A

12/31/2013

Atlanta 8:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

         
Heart Of Dallas

1/1/2014

Dallas 12:00pm ESPN-U
Opponents:

North Texas (8-4) vs. UNLV (7-5)

         
Gator

1/1/2014

Jacksonville 12:00pm ESPN-2
Opponents:

Nebraska (8-4) vs. Georgia (8-4)

         
Outback

1/1/2014

Tampa 1:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

LSU (9-3) vs. Iowa (8-4)

         
Capital One

1/1/2014

Orlando 1:00pm ABC
Opponents:

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)

         
Rose

1/1/2014

Pasadena, CA 5:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Michigan St. (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2)

         
Fiesta

1/1/2014

Glendale, AZ 8:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Baylor (11-1) vs. Central Florida (11-1)

         
Sugar

1/2/2014

New Orleans 8:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Alabama (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)

         
Cotton

1/3/2014

Arlington, TX 7:30pm Fox
Opponents:

Missouri (11-2) vs. Oklahoma St. (10-2)

         
Orange

1/3/2014

Miami 8:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Clemson (10-2) vs. Ohio St. (12-1)

         
BBVA Compass Bowl

1/4/2014

Birmingham 1:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Vanderbilt (8-4) vs. Houston (8-4)

         
GoDaddy.com

1/5/2014

Mobile, AL 9:00pm ESPN
Opponents:

Ball St. (10-2) vs. Arkansas St. (7-5)

         
BCS Championship

1/6/2014

Pasadena, CA 8:30pm ESPN
Opponents:

Florida St. (13-0) vs. Auburn (12-1)

         
Teams in Italics are at-large selections      

 

We will have an in-depth preview of each bowl game next week, either Tuesday or Wednesday.

April 8, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: National Championship Game–April 8, 2013

2013 NCAA Tournament— Championship Game, April 8, 2013

Time Eastern Daylight

 

Site: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Network: CBS

Time

Favorite

Underdog

Line

9:23 PM

Louisville (34-5)

Michigan (31-7)

 4

Elite 8 Record: 1-1

Tournament Total: 39-23

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 1 of  2  (Louisville)

 

PiRate Ratings Criteria Formula Statistics

Criteria

Louisville

Michigan

Scoring Margin

16.0

12.4

FG% Margin

6.4

6.0

Rebound Margin

3.6

3.1

Turnover Margin

5.9

2.8

Steals

10.8

6.2

R+T

12.84

7.58

SOS

59.41

55.94

RD W%

82.6

70.0

Qualifiers

6

4

PiRate #

84.22

56.53

Modified

123.92

65.03

 

PiRate Criteria Means for 2000-2012 National Champions

 

Criteria

Champ Avg.

Scoring Margin

15.5

FG% Margin

8.7

Rebound Margin

6.2

Turnover Margin

1.3

Steals

7.8

R+T

9.29

SOS

57.09

RD W%

73.8

Qualifiers

7

PiRate #

75.88

Modified

94.78

 

 

Louisville Cardinals

Roster

#

NAME

HT

WT

POS

CL

HOMETOWN (PREVIOUS SCHOOL)

2

Russ Smith

6-00

165

G

JR

Brooklyn, N.Y. (Archbishop Molloy/South Kent)

3

Peyton Siva

6-00

185

G

SR

Seattle, Wash. (Franklin)

5

Kevin Ware

6-02

175

G

SO

Bronx, N.Y. (Rockdale County (Ga.))

10

Gorgui Dieng

6-11

245

C

JR

Kebemer, Senegal (Covenant/Huntington Prep)

11

Luke Hancock

6-06

200

F

JR

Roanoke, Va. (George Mason)

12

Mangok Mathiang

6-10

200

C

FR

Melbourne, Australia (IMG Academy (Fla.))

14

Logan Baumann

6-00

165

G

FR

Hartford, Ky. (Ohio County)

15

Tim Henderson

6-02

195

G

JR

Louisville, Ky. (Christian Academy)

20

Wayne Blackshear

6-05

230

G/F

SO

Chicago, Ill. (Morgan Park)

21

Chane Behanan

6-06

250

F

SO

Cincinnati, Ohio (Bowling Green)

22

Jordan Bond

6-00

165

G

FR

Louisville, Ky. (duPont Manual)

24

Montrezl Harrell

6-08

235

F

FR

Tarboro, N.C. (Hargrave Military Academy)

25

Zach Price

6-10

250

C

SO

Cleveland, Ohio (Jeffersontown)

32

Michael Baffour

6-02

170

G

JR

Lexington, Ky. (Bryan Station)

33

Mike Marra

6-05

215

G

SR

Smithfield, R.I. (Northfield Mt. Hermon School)

44

Stephan Van Treese

6-09

245

F

SR

Indianapolis, Ind. (Lawrence North)

 

Coach: Rick Pitino 12th year at UL: 309-111

28 seasons overall: 663-239

(Hawaii, Boston U, Providence, Kentucky, Louisville)

 

Team Stats—Louisville

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Russ Smith

39

39

1179

229

544

.421

61

183

.333

220

273

Gorgi Dieng

32

31

989

121

228

.531

0

0

.000

73

112

Peyton Siva

39

39

1211

133

329

.404

38

130

.292

79

92

Chane Behanan

38

36

990

146

288

.507

1

12

.083

73

135

Luke Hancock

39

8

867

92

220

.418

58

153

.379

60

78

Wayne Blackshear

38

33

763

102

243

.420

43

136

.316

43

62

Montrezl Harrell

39

3

637

96

167

.575

0

0

.000

32

63

Kevin Ware

37

1

616

59

132

.447

15

37

.405

34

51

Stephan Van Treese

36

1

412

26

40

.650

0

0

.000

12

17

Zach Price

16

7

123

8

15

.533

0

0

.000

4

8

Tim Henderson

26

0

98

8

23

.348

6

20

.300

0

0

Logan Baumann

4

0

11

0

4

.000

0

0

.000

2

2

Michael Baffour

6

0

12

0

3

.000

0

2

.000

2

4

Jordan Bond

5

0

17

0

3

.000

0

2

.000

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

39

39

7925

1020

2239

.456

222

675

.329

634

897

Opponents

39

39

7925

800

2041

.392

213

678

.314

462

705

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Russ Smith

.806

98

0

114

105

2

83

131

3.4

739

18.9

Gorgi Dieng

.652

81

3

60

57

80

43

302

9.4

315

9.8

Peyton Siva

.859

100

3

223

104

6

86

88

2.3

383

9.8

Chane Behanan

.541

66

0

41

60

16

53

242

6.4

366

9.6

Luke Hancock

.769

80

1

52

39

3

38

104

2.7

302

7.7

Wayne Blackshear

.694

95

0

24

24

10

33

121

3.2

290

7.6

Montrezl Harrell

.508

50

0

8

23

27

20

145

3.7

224

5.7

Kevin Ware

.667

58

1

31

42

4

39

66

1.8

167

4.5

Stephan Van Treese

.706

45

0

9

13

11

18

114

3.2

64

1.8

Zach Price

.500

23

0

0

5

5

1

22

1.4

20

1.3

Tim Henderson

.000

7

0

3

6

1

6

12

0.5

22

0.8

Logan Baumann

1.000

1

0

0

1

0

0

3

0.8

2

0.5

Michael Baffour

.500

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0.2

2

0.3

Jordan Bond

.000

1

0

1

0

0

1

3

0.6

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

7

 

 

85

2.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

.707

705

8

566

486

165

421

1439

36.9

2896

74.3

Opponents

.655

751

X

398

718

129

221

1300

33.3

2275

58.3

 

 

Schedule

Opponent

Score

MANHATTAN  

79-51  

SAMFORD  

80-54  

MIAMI (OH)  

80-39  

vs NORTHERN IOWA  (Bahamas)

51-46  

vs MISSOURI  (Bahamas)

84-61  

vs DUKE  (Bahamas)

71-76  

ILLINOIS STATE  

69-66  

at COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON  

80-38  

MISSOURI-KANSAS CITY  

99-47  

at MEMPHIS  

87-78  

FIU  

79-55  

vs WESTERN KENTUCKY  (Nashville)

78-55  

KENTUCKY  

80-77  

PROVIDENCE  

80-62  

at SETON HALL  

73-58  

USF  

64-38  

at CONNECTICUT  

73-58  

SYRACUSE  

68-70  

at VILLANOVA  

64-73  

at GEORGETOWN  

51-53  

PITTSBURGH  

64-61  

MARQUETTE  

70-51  

at RUTGERS  

68-48  

at NOTRE DAME  

101-104  

ST. JOHN‘S  

72-58  

at USF  

59-41  

SETON HALL  

79-61  

at DEPAUL  

79-58  

at SYRACUSE  

58-53  

CINCINNATI  

67-51  

NOTRE DAME  

73-57  

vs VILLANOVA  (BE Tourn.)

74-55  

vs NOTRE DAME  (BE Tourn.)

69-57  

vs SYRACUSE  (BE Tourn.)

78-61  

vs NORTH CAROLINA A&T  (ncaa)

79-48  

vs COLORADO STATE  (ncaa)

82-56  

vs OREGON  (ncaa)

77-69  

vs DUKE  (ncaa)

85-63  

vs WICHITA STATE  (ncaa)

72-68  

 

 

Michigan Wolverines

Roster

#

Name

Ht.

Wt.

Pos.

Year

Hometown (High School)

1

Glenn Robinson III

6-06

210

F

FR

St. John, Ind. (Lake Central)

2

Spike Albrecht

5-11

170

G

FR

Crown Pt., Ind. (Northfield Mt. Hermon Prep MA)

3

Trey Burke

6-01

190

G

SO

Columbus, Ohio (Northland)

4

Mitch McGary

6-10

250

F

FR

Chesterton, Ind. (Brewster Academy [N.H.])

5

Eso Akunne

6-02

225

G

SR

Ann Arbor, Mich. (Gabriel Richard)

10

Tim Hardaway Jr.

6-06

205

G

JR

Miami, Fla. (Palmetto Senior)

11

Nik Stauskas

6-06

190

G

FR

Mississauga, Ontario (St. Mark’s School MA)

13

Matt Vogrich

6-04

200

G

SR

Lake Forest, Ill. (Lake Forest)

15

Jon Horford

6-10

250

F

SO

Grand Ledge, Mich. (Grand Ledge)

20

Josh Bartelstein

6-03

210

G

SR

Highland Pk., Ill. (Phillips Exeter Acad. [N.H.])

22

Blake McLimans

6-10

240

F

SR

Hamburg, N.Y. (Worcester Academy [Mass.])

23

Caris LeVert

6-05

170

G

FR

Pickerington, Ohio (Central)

32

Corey Person

6-03

210

G

GS

Kalamazoo, Mich. (Central)

44

Max Bielfeldt

6-07

245

F

FR

Peoria, Ill. (Notre Dame)

52

Jordan Morgan

6-08

250

F

JR

Detroit, Mich. (University of Detroit Jesuit)

 

Coach: John Beilein 6th year at UM: 122-84

35 seasons overall: 673-402

(Erie CC, Nazareth, LeMoyne, Canisius, Richmond, West Virginia, Michigan)

 

Team Stats

Michigan Wolverines

Player

G

GS

Min

FG

FGA

FG%

3pt

3ptA

3pt%

FT

FTA

Trey Burke

38

38

1352

252

549

.459

73

193

.378

126

157

Tim Hardaway, Jr.

37

37

1289

196

447

.438

73

191

.382

75

107

Nik Stauskas

38

32

1171

137

296

.463

79

180

.439

74

87

Glenn Robinson, III

38

38

1274

164

288

.569

23

70

.329

65

97

Mitch McGary

38

7

740

131

218

.601

0

0

.000

23

52

Jordan Morgan

35

27

565

71

121

.587

0

0

.000

22

41

Jon Horford

31

4

276

34

59

.576

0

0

.000

19

27

Caris LeVert

32

1

344

28

88

.318

13

42

.310

7

14

Spike Albrecht

38

0

289

22

50

.440

14

28

.500

9

10

Eso Akunne

18

0

51

8

26

.308

4

12

.333

1

2

Max Bielfeldt

20

0

106

9

20

.450

0

2

.000

5

12

Matt Vogrich

26

6

125

9

27

.333

5

19

.263

3

4

Corey Person

13

0

43

3

7

.429

2

3

.667

2

3

Blake McLimans

16

0

20

4

15

.267

2

11

.182

1

2

Josh Bartelstein

6

0

10

0

1

.000

0

0

.000

0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Totals

38

38

7655

1068

2212

.483

288

751

.383

432

617

Opponents

38

38

7655

913

2160

.423

234

729

.321

325

480

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   
Player

FT%

F

DQ

Ast

TO

Bk

Stl

Reb

Avg

Pts

Avg

Trey Burke

.803

69

0

257

82

19

62

120

3.2

703

18.5

Tim Hardaway, Jr.

.701

73

0

89

69

17

26

172

4.6

540

14.6

Nik Stauskas

.851

23

0

50

43

9

21

114

3.0

427

11.2

Glenn Robinson, III

.670

43

0

41

32

10

39

209

5.5

416

10.9

Mitch McGary

.442

88

0

24

46

27

41

240

6.3

285

7.5

Jordan Morgan

.537

50

1

13

33

3

15

153

4.4

164

4.7

Jon Horford

.704

45

0

9

14

16

8

69

2.2

87

2.8

Caris LeVert

.500

38

0

25

9

2

5

33

1.0

76

2.4

Spike Albrecht

.900

23

0

28

12

1

12

30

0.8

67

1.8

Eso Akunne

.500

4

0

5

1

0

0

12

0.7

21

1.2

Max Bielfeldt

.417

8

0

3

3

1

3

31

1.6

23

1.2

Matt Vogrich

.750

8

0

5

3

0

2

23

0.9

26

1.0

Corey Person

.667

4

0

2

1

0

0

1

0.1

10

0.8

Blake McLimans

.500

4

0

1

1

1

1

13

0.8

11

0.7

Josh Bartelstein

.000

1

0

1

0

0

1

0

0.0

0

0.0

Team

 

 

 

 

7

 

 

119

3.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totals

.700

481

1

553

356

106

236

1339

35.2

2856

75.2

Opponents

.677

583

10

476

461

121

200

1219

32.1

2385

62.8

 

 

Schedule

Opponent

Score

vs. Slippery Rock

100-62

vs. IUPUI TV (nit)

91-54

vs. Cleveland State (nit)

77-47

(n) Pittsburgh (nit)

67-62

(n) Kansas State (nit)

71-57

vs. No. 18 North Carolina State

79-72

at Bradley 

74-66

vs. Western Michigan 

73-41

vs. Arkansas 

80-67

vs. Binghamton 

67-39

(n) West Virginia (Brooklyn)

81-66

vs. Eastern Michigan 

93-54

vs. Central Michigan 

88-73

at Northwestern

94-66

vs. Iowa

95-67

vs. Nebraska

62-47

at No. 15 Ohio State

53-56

at No. 9 Minnesota

83-75

vs. Purdue

68-53

at Illinois

74-60

vs. Northwestern

68-46

at No. 3 Indiana

73-81

vs. No. 10 Ohio State

76-74 ot

at Wisconsin

62-65 ot

at Michigan State

52-75

vs. Penn State

79-71

vs. Illinois

71-58

at Penn State

78-84

vs. No. 9 Michigan State

58-57

at Purdue

80-75

vs. No. 2 Indiana

71-72

vs. Penn State (B10)

83-66

vs. No. 22 Wisconsin (B10)

59-68

vs. South Dakota State ncaa

71-56

vs. VCU ncaa

78-53

vs. No. 3 Kansas ncaa

87-85 ot

vs. No. 14 Florida ncaa

79-59

vs. No. 8 Syracuse ncaa

61-56

 

Positional Matchups

Point Guard: Louisville—(3) Peyton Siva               Michigan—(3)Trey Burke

This is where Michigan has to have a big night.  Burke is ice cold in the tournament so far, hitting a paltry 23-71 from the field and 8-31 from three-point territory.  The Wolverines were able to overcome Burke’s cold shooting, but the Cardinals will shut off the UM inside game on enough possessions to force Burke to beat them from the outside.

 

Siva is a talented play-maker and even better defender, so Burke may not get many open looks.  Siva does not have to score to be effective.  He is just one of several secondary options on the Cardinals’ team.  A steal at a key juncture of this game could change momentum and become the deciding factor in a close game, and Siva is much more likely to get that steal than any Michigan player.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Shooting Guard: Louisville—(2) Russ Smith          Michigan—(10) Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Smith has been hot during the tournament, and he has oftentimes carried the offensive load for Pitino.  He can be a streaky shooter, and in the last two weeks, that streak has been scorching to the nets.  Beilein’s game plan must start with keeping the ball away from him as much as possible.

 

Hardaway is a quality 2-guard who would be superior to about 62 of the other teams in the Big Dance.  However, Louisville is not one of those teams.  He will need help handling Smith, and he will need to use a lot of additional energy helping Burke against the Cardinals’ Matchup Press defense.

 

Advantage: Louisville

 

Small Forward: Louisville—(20) Wayne Blackshear        Michigan—(11) Nik Stauskas

This is the weakest position in this game, but it could become vitally important.  Stauskas is a hit or miss proposition.  If he hits a three-pointer early, his confidence could lead him to following that up with several more.  If Louisville’s perimeter is too quick for him, and he cannot get open looks, he will disappear on offense and not be much help on defense.

 

Blackshear is a proven commodity, but that commodity is not blue-chip.  He is a tough, hard-worker who will muscle his way on the boards and play consistent defense, but he will not win or lose this game.  Pitino knows what he will get from him and knows he will be rather consistent.

 

Advantage: Wildcard (It is a push, but only because Stauskas has a 50% chance of having a large advantage or large disadvantage depending on which Stauskas shows up).

 

Power Forward: Louisville—(21) Chane Behanan           Michigan—(1) Glenn Robinson, III

This should be a great matchup between like-minded players.  Both opponents help their teammates and make them look better, but neither player can carry the load.

 

Look for both players to score around 10 points and get 8 rebounds.  Behanan may be a little better inside, while Robinson is a little better helping on the perimeter.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Center: Louisville—(10) Gorgui Dieng       Michigan—(4) Mitch McGary

This position features two future NBA players that are just starting to reach their potentials.  Dieng is a fantastic defensive stopper in the paint, and he can imitate Dikembe Mutombo in the Geico commercials.  He is also a major force on the boards, and he can grab the ball on both ends of the floor.  His ability to stop the dribble-drive gives the rest of the team an opportunity to gamble in the press.

 

McGary is more of a prototypical post player.  He has more moves on the offensive end, and when the inside is crowded, he can locate the open perimeter and deliver a sharp, accurate pass that allows his teammate to shoot quickly.

 

Advantage: Michigan

 

Bench:

Pitino uses his bench more the Beilein, but when the Michigan reserves are in the game, they contribute without weakening the team.

 

The loss of Kevin Ware takes away a considerable part of the Cardinals’ bench production, but on the other hand, his teammates will get a boost with him there to cheer them on.

 

Advantage: Push

Our Pick: Here is how we see this game.  In the first half, both teams will be a little tight, and scoring will be rather low, much like the norm for this season.  It will appear to be dull for the first 10-12 minutes with the scoring at a sub-100-point pace (something like 12-10).

 

The offenses will step up and start to get untracked in the final 8 minutes of the half, and Louisville will finish on a mini-run to go into the locker room with a small lead (28-25 or so).

 

Michigan will gain some momentum early in the second half and have their best showing of the night during the first two of the four-minute stretches.  The Wolverines will take the lead and gain a little momentum, with the score looking like 37-34 with 12 minutes to play.

 

At this point, the Wolverines will start to tire.  Their starters played too many minutes in the semifinal win over Syracuse, and the relentless Cardinal pressure will start to have an effect.  A couple of turnovers and some forced shots due to fatigue will allow Louisville to regain the lead.  Beilein will have to take a timeout with UL leading 43-39 with 9 minutes left.

 

After a brief recovery, the fatigue will prove fatal, and Louisville will go for the jugular with a big run.  By the under 4 timeout, the Cardinals will have a nice cushion, something like 55-46.  Michigan will begin to force multiple ill-advised shots, and Louisville will get a couple of cheap baskets to ice the game.  A couple of late three-pointers will give the Wolverine fans some hope, but the Cardinals will hit some foul shots to clinch the national title.

 

FINAL SCORE: Louisville 62  Michigan 55

 

 

January 6, 2012

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Simper Bowl V

Simper Bowl V

The championship round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday morning, January 6, 2012, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC received automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finished in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules were applied, at-large invitations were extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gave the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 played in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Were:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

 

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

 

The Final Four Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

 

Simper Bowl Facts

The Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers actually played in this year’s Rose Bowl, and the Simper Bowl takes place in the same vicinity at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marked the second time in Simper Bowl history that the computer simulated National Championship Game featured teams that actually squared off in a bowl.

 

We went ahead and simulated this game 100 times after we simulated it the one time to represent the Simper Bowl.  The winner of the Simper Bowl only won 37 of the 100 simulations performed after the Simper Bowl, so we would call the winner of this game an upset.

 

And, the 2011-12 Simper Bowl Champions Are: THE OREGON DUCKS!

 

Congratulations to the Ducks, as they defeated Wisconsin 38-30 in the lone simulation prior to the 100 sims performed afterwards.  Wisconsin won 63 of the 100 simulations performed after we recorded the results of the Simper Bowl.

 

Here are the Simper Bowl Stats:

 

Ore

Team

Wis

 

 

 

20

FD

23

 

 

 

35-206

Rush

41-209

 

 

 

271

Passing

257

 

 

 

17-29-0

Passes

22-33-1

 

 

 

64

Plays

74

 

 

 

477

Tot Yds

466

 

 

 

4-92

KR

6-132

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-0

 

 

 

1-13

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

6-47

Pen

8-58

 

 

 

2-43.5

Punt

3-46.7

 

 

 

27:12

Time

32:48

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Ore

10

14

7

7

38

Wis

3

10

10

7

30

Rushing Leaders

Oregon: James 21-135 and 2 touchdowns
Wisconsin: Ball 25-143 and one touchdown
 

Passing Leaders

Oregon: Thomas 17-29-0 271 yards and 2 touchdowns
Wisconsin: Wilson 22-33-1 257 yards and one touchdown
 

Receiving Leader

Oregon: Tuinei 6-118 and one touchdown
Wisconsin: White 3-90 and one touchdown

 

On Monday morning, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.

August 8, 2011

The Great Bowlcott

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:31 pm

The Big Bowlcott

 

All 120 FBS college football teams have commenced with practice, and it almost feels like football season.  Actually, it feels more likeArizonaState’s preseason training camp over most of the country.  We won’t complain this winter when it snows 35 times.

 

Today, we kick off our college coverage in earnest.  We have a method that will help you participate in bringing a college football playoff. 

 

Every season, only one bowl game matters when it comes to determining the national champion.  All the other bowls are just money-generators for the bowl game and its sponsors.  Many of the bowls will not even decide a spot in the final top 25.  When two 6-6 teams square off in late December, unless you are a fan of one of those mediocre teams, who really cares about the game?

 

Our founder recalls that LSU finished a season with just one loss and did not even get invited to a bowl in 1969, because there were not enough bowls then, and Notre Dame made a late decision to accept its first bowl bid, keeping LSU from playingTexasin the Cotton Bowl.  For years, the Big Ten and Pac-8 only allowed one team to go to a bowl—the Rose Bowl. Michiganwent 10-0-1 in 1973 and stayed home for the holidays. 

 

Somewhere along the line, the post-season went from one ridiculous extreme to the opposite.  6-6 teams, and even 7-5 teams do not need to be rewarded with a 13th game.

 

The only reason there is not a playoff at the highest level of college football is the financial blackmail the current sponsors of the bowls hold over the NCAA and its participant teams.  Take away the financial bonanzas, and the sponsors would pull out.  No sponsors would mean no bowls.

 

What is it that corporations hate the most?  It’s losing money.  If hosting bowls causes them to lose customers and money, they will make a sound business decision to stop sponsoring bowl games.  Obviously, it will take thousands of boycotters, and we realize that only a thousand or so read this blog.  It will be up to you to take this and make it viral.  Spread it to all of your sports friends and tell them to spread it as well.  Maybe, someone with a little more clout will pick it up and run with it. 

 

How to Boycott The Bowl Sponsors

We are not asking you turn off the TV during any bowl game you want to watch.  Watching the game is not going to affect the sponsors’ bottom line, although it will boost the ratings of the network televising the games.

 

What we want you to do is to notify each bowl sponsor that you currently do business with and tell them that until they stop sponsoring bowl games, you will have to cease using their products.  With the exception of one or two companies, all the rest can be notified via e-mail.  With your e-mail, send a carbon copy (cc) to one of the sponsors’ competitors letting both know that you will be patronizing the company that does not sponsor bowl games.

 

It’s that simple.  You do not have to notify every company that sponsors a bowl.  If there are just three bowls where you can boycott the products of the sponsors, your voice will be heard, especially if you get some of your friends to do the same and to tell their friends, and so on.  You might add that if they decided to sponsor playoffs, you would definitely become their customer.

 

Below, we have listed the bowls, the e-mail addresses or customer relations pages that will take you directly where you need to go to tell them of your disapproval of their support of the bowl system, and their competitors that will be glad to have your business.

 

Besides the main sponsors, the bowls have other affiliated sponsors as well.  Many of these are local sponsors that can only be boycotted in the host city, but there are additional national sponsors you can boycott.  Don’t forget to look at these sponsors, as you will want to boycott their products as well.

 

It would be very difficult to inform every sponsor on the list that follows.  If you want to contribute, just pick some sponsors that you currently fraternize, stop giving them your business, and then inform them why.

 

Here we go. 

 

New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque

 

Sponsor:Gilda Activewear, Inc. of Montreal  customerservice@gildanonline.com

 

Competitor: www.goathleticapparel.com  ofMinneapolis

 

Other Sponsors: El Pinto, Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, Hyatt Regency Hotels, Comcast

 

Idaho Potato Bowl—Boise, ID

 

Sponsor: Idaho Potato Commission  jamie.quinno@potato.idaho.gov

 

Competitor: Rather than list another potato commission, may we suggest eating sweet potatoes, especially Japanese sweet potatoes grown in America.  Japanese sweet potatoes are very nutritious.  Recent studies have shown these white-fleshed sweet potatoes to lower bad cholesterol, treat high blood pressure and anemia, and lower blood sugar, even to the point that one researcher claimed it to be a cure for diabetes.  Additionally, Japanese sweet potatoes are high in hyaluronic acid, a substance that researchers say slows aging by helping cells retain moisture, lubricating the joints and keeping skin more elastic.

 

Other Sponsors: At the time of this writing, this bowls’ sponsorship had just changed. 

 

New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans

 

Sponsor: R + L Carriers.   customerservice@rlcarriers.com 

They are a global transportation corporation. 

 

Competitor: Old Dominion Freight Lines, Inc. (Thomasville, NC)  www.odfl.com

 

Other Sponsors: Marriott and Hilton Hotels

 

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

 

Sponsor: Beef O’Brady’s   http://www.beefobradys.com/contact-us.aspx (select “Complaints” under comment topic)

 

Competitor: Why not patronize a restaurant that is locally owned instead of a corporate company.  Local owners’ must keep up their reputation first and foremost, while corporates must satisfy stockholders first and foremost.

 

Other Sponsors: Budweiser, Tradewinds Resorts, Checker Cab & Yellow Cab, Tires Plus

 

Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego

 

Sponsor: San DiegoCountyCredit Union www.sdccu.com

This boycott is for those inSan DiegoandOrangeCountiesinCalifornia.

 

Competitor: MissionFederal Credit Union  www.missionfed.com

 

Other Sponsors: Kaiser Permanente, Amtrak, Classic Party Rentals, Dr. Pepper

 

MAACO Bowl—Las Vegas

 

Sponsor: MAACO  

 

Competitor: Competitor: www.earlscheib.com   (Sherman Oaks, CA)

 

Other Sponsors: PlanetHollywood, Meadow Gold, Axe, Chevron, Cici’s Pizza, Aramark, Pepsi, Sprint

 

Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu

 

Sponsor: Sheraton Hotels (part of Starwood Hotels)      http://www.starwoodhotels.com/sheraton/support/console/email.html

 

Competitor: Use Orbitz, Travelocity, Hotels.com, Priceline, or a similar site to find a discount hotel and where possible, uncheck Sheraton as a choice option

 

Other Sponsors: Outback Steaks, AllState, Burger King, Pepsi, Papa John’s Pizza,Toyota, Xerox, Napa Auto Parts

 

Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

 

Sponsor: Advocare v100  

 

Competitor: Advocare is a multivitamin and supplement company catering to athletes. 

Our founder speaks here: As a professional nutritional consultant with more than 1000 hours of nutritional research study over the last 30+ years and as a former nutritional rep to the health food industry, I would recommend using a whole-food vitamin (not Whole Foods the company, but a vitamin made from real whole foods and not made from a chemist).  I would recommend using organic only and using one that does not contain added sugars or sugar substitutes.  Advocare uses Sucralose, Fructose, and even High Fructose Corn Syrup in its products, which in my expert opinion are the opposite of nutritional.

I recommend consulting one of three online companies to find the right supplements for you—Lucky Vitamins (www.luckyvitamins.com), Iherb (www.iherb.com), and VitaCost (www.vitacost.com).  I have recommended many vitamin/mineral supplements through the years, including: New Chapter and Megafood for multivitamins/minerals, Natural Factors non-denatured Whey Protein Powder, NOW Coenzyme B-Complex, Nature’s Way Enteric-Coated Fish Oil, Natural Factors Coenzyme Q10, and Source Naturals Ascorbyl Palmitate (a fat-soluble vitamin c ester).  Treat your body like a temple and not a dumpster.

 

Other Sponsors: AT&T, Capital One, General Electric, Yellow Book

 

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl—Detroit

 

Sponsor: Little Caesar’s Pizza  www.littlecaesars.com 1-800-7-CAESAR

For this bowl, it might be more effective if you contacted your local franchise owner/manager and inform him/her that you can no longer be a customer of Little Caesar’s because you are participating in a national boycott of all college football bowl games.

 

Competitor: Again our founder speaks on nutrition: I was a pizza aficionado for many years before giving it up cold turkey.  Today, I do not consume Pasteurized/homogenized dairy (just raw goat’s milk from goats I own and do not sell to others lest the USDA send a bunch of thugs here like they have to Amish farms and to arrest members of the Weston A. Price Foundation) nor grains of any kind. I consume “raw pizza” made from sprouted nuts, sundried tomatoes, and herbs that have been dehydrated in a food dehydrator.  

For those that have to eat pizza, then you should only settle for the real deal.  I would only go with an authentic Brooklyn/Manhattan style with thin, crisp crust that has some char in it.  If you do not have an authentic Brooklyn/Manhattan style pizzeria, then you should learn how to make a reasonable facsimile thereof. 

If you need a pizza chain, try Sir Pizza or Pizza Hut.  With the chains, there isn’t much difference—they are all subpar.

 

Other Sponsors: Ford, GM, AT&T, AllState, Blue Cross/Blue Shield, Comcast, Meijer

 

Belk Bowl—Charlotte  

 

Sponsor: www.belk.com  1-866-235-5443 (no e-mail address for customer service)

Belk apparently has one of the worst customer service departments of any retail establishment in the western world.  There are numerous complaints found online at multiple locations detailing how this company has alienated a lot of its former regular customers, one of whom was charged an interest rate of more than 26% on a Belk card that had an automatic bill pay set up.  Belk changed its due date with no prior notice!  This does not seem to have been a one-time incident.

 

Competitor: J. C. Penney   www.jcpenney.com  (Plano, TX)

 

Other Sponsors: Havoline, AllState, Hilton, Hampton Inn,

 

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

Sponsor: Northrop Grumman   This game cannot be boycotted the same way as the other bowls.  You will have to boycott the TV sponsors for this one.  I doubt many people in need of a defense contractor are reading this post.

Other Sponsors: Geico, Marriott Hotels, Hyundai, and Miller Beer

 

Holiday Bowl—San Diego

 

Sponsor: Bridgepoint Education   info@bridgepointeducation.com

While two actual campus sites are available for this for-profit college, almost all of its students are online distance learning students.

 

Competitor: The Universityof Phoenixcan be found in almost all big cities. www.phoenix.edu  e-mail: media@phoenix.edu

 

Other Sponsors: Bank ofAmerica, Bumble Bee Tuna, Dr. Pepper, Jack in the Box, US Bank, Wells Fargo Bank

 

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando

 

Sponsor: Champs Sports  http://www.champssports.com/content/feedback/

 

Champs Sports also owns Foot Locker, Lady Foot Locker, Kids Foot Locker, Footaction,EastBay, and CCS

 

Competitor: Dick’s Sporting Goods   www.dickssportinggoods.com  (Pittsburgh)

 

Other Sponsors: Budweiser, Coca-Cola/Dasani Water, RBC Bank

 

Alamo Bowl—San Antonio

 

Sponsor: Valero  customer.relations@valero.com

Valero is an oil refiner and marketer with numerous gas stations in the Southwest.  They own Diamond Shamrock as well as Valero and Valero Corner Stores.

 

Competitor: Any other oil company

 

Other Sponsors: Dr. Pepper, American Airlines, AT&T

 

Armed Forces Bowl—Dallas (@ SMU’s Gerald Ford Stadium)

 

Sponsor:BellHelicopter

Similar to the Military Bowl, you will need to boycott the other sponsors of this game. 

 

Other Sponsors: American Airlines, BBVA Compass, Chick-fil-A, and Omni Hotels

 

Pinstripe Bowl—Bronx, NY

 

Sponsor: New Era  http://shop.neweracap.com/infoPages/contact.php

 

Competitor: Genesco, Inc.  www.genesco.com (Nashville)

 

Other Sponsors: Ford, Benjamin Moore Paint, Hess

 

Music City Bowl—Nashville

 

Sponsor: FranklinAmerican Mortgage  smedes@franklinamerican.com

 

Competitor: There are many mortgage lenders throughout the nation.  Here is a great free tool that will help you find the best mortgage for your situation: http://mortgagemavin.com/Tutorial/Mortgage-Tutorial.aspx

 

Other Sponsors: Gaylord Hotels, Dollar General, SunTrust Bank, Comcast

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

 

Sponsor: (The Fiesta Bowl and Insight Bowl are under the same auspices—see Fiesta Bowl for boycott information).

 

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Houston

 

Sponsor: Meineke Car Care   www.meineke.com/ContactUs/CustomerService.aspx

 

Competitor: Midas, Inc.  www.midas.com (Itasca, IL)

 

Other Sponsors: AllState, Budweiser, Chick-fil-A, Buffalo Wild Wings, Astra Zeneca, Coca-Cola, Comcast, Doubletree Hotels, Hyatt Regency Hotels,  Exxon Mobil, H-E-B, Halliburton, Marriott, McDonald’s, Nordstrom, Office Max, Panera Bread, Papa John’s Pizza, Ramada Inn, Wrangler Jeans, Yellow Cab

 

Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

 

Sponsor: Hyundai  www.hyundaiusa.com/contact-us.aspx

(also includes Kia)

 

Competitor: Contact your local Hyundai and Kia dealers and tell them that while you believe their cars are quality vehicles, you must boycott their dealerships due to their parent company’s sponsorship of a bowl game.  Then, tell them where you intend to purchase your vehicle (make sure it is not one to boycott from another bowl).

 

Other Sponsors: Academy Sports and Outdoors, Bank of the West,

 

Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

 

Sponsor: AutoZone   https://www.autozone.com/autozone/contactus/customerService.jsp;jsessionid=C6190F4A95D47C7207C806ABC84575A6.diyprod5-b2c15?landingPageCategory=inOurStores&title=customer+service

 

Competitor: Advance Auto Parts (Roanoke, VA) http://shop.advanceautoparts.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/home___

 

Other Sponsors: Fedex, AT&T, Marriott & Hilton Hotels, Doubletree Hotels, Nike, Burger King

 

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco

 

Sponsor: Kraft Foods   http://www.kraftfoodscompany.com/contacts/pages/other-contacts-form.aspx?ft=other&subj=Other

 

Includes A-1 Sauce, Athenos, Balance Bars, Boca Burgers, Breakstone, Bull’s Eye BBQ Sauce, California Pizza Kitchen & DiGiorno frozen pizza , Capri Sun, Cheez Whiz, Chips Ahoy, Cool Whips, Crystal Light, Grey Poupon, Honey Maid, Jell-O and Knox Gelatine, Kool-Aid, Maxwell House, Miracle Whip, Nabisco, Oreo Cookie, Oscar-Meyer Planter’s Nuts, South Beach, Tang, and Velveeta

 

Competitor: General Mills (maker of Betty Crocker, Bisquick, Cascadian Farm, Cheerios, Chex, Fiber One, Gold Medal Flour, Good Earth, Green Giant, Haagen-Dazs, Hamburger Helper, Larabar, Lucky Charms, Macaroni Grill, Muir Glen, Nature Valley, Old El Paso, Pillsbury, Progresso, Total Cereal, Totino’s and Jeno’s, Trix Cereal, Wanchai Ferry, Wheaties, and Yoplait)

 

Other Sponsors: Honda, Enterprise Rent-a-Car, Macy’s Wells Fargo, AllState, Yellow Pages,

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta

 

Sponsor: Chick-fil-A  www.chick-fil-a.com/Connect/Contact-Us-CARES

 

Competitor: As stated above, please patronize your local establishments.  When you pay money to a local restaurateur, that money stays in your local area and is used again in your town.  

 

Other Sponsors: AT&T, Coca-Cola, Delta Airlines, Ticketmaster, BB&T Bank, Russell Athletic, Home Depot, Hilton and Marriott Hotels, Honda, Kia

 

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas (@ Cotton Bowl)

 

Sponsor: TicketCity   www.ticketcity.com/contact-form.html?e=3

 

Competitor: Stubhub, Inc.   www.stubhub.com

 

Other Sponsors: Dean Foods, Ernst & Young, Hilton Hotels, Renaissance Hotels, Embassy Suites, Hyatt Regency Hotels, Enterprise Rent-a-Car

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando

 

Sponsor: Capital One   webinfo@capitalone.com

 

Capital One is another company with several thousands of online complaints (2.9 million returns on search for complaints), many of which do not involve lack of payment on the card.  As radio talk show host Dave Ramsey says, you should do a little plastic surgery and cut up that card.

 

Competitor: If you must take on debt, then consider Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards® Premier Credit Card from Chase.   http://www.mychasecreditcards.com/southwest/affiliate?AFFID=KB4qoSTKkC8-iZ4lTMucfAHGCFmhbBL1Ew&pvid=f58027ae8c5f682fe1149ffe96c0fe1c

 

Other Sponsors: Coca-Cola/Dasani Water, Budweiser

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville

 

Sponsor: Progressive Insurance   www.progressive.com/contact-us.aspx

Just say “No” to Flo.

 

Competitor: As a former insurance rehabilitation contractor, I can speak first-hand about the companies that seemed to me to be most customer friendly.  I liked State Farm, Travelers, and Prudential.

 

Other Sponsors: Aetna, AllState, AT&T, BB&T, BBVA Compass, BJ’s Wholesale Club, Budweiser, Coca-Cola, Domino’s Pizza, Gatorade, Hallmark Cards, Hyatt-Regency Hotels, Jim Beam, McAlister’s Deli, McDonald’s, Merrill Lynch, Regions Bank, SunTrust Bank, Toyota, Xfinity, Wells Fargo

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa

 

Sponsor: Outback Steakhouse   www.outback.com/contactus/generalcomment.aspx

 

Competitor: TexasRoadhouse   www.texasroadhouse.com

 

Other Sponsors: Budweiser, Mercedes-Benz, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, MetLife, Westin Hotels, Trane, Hyatt-Regency, Kia, Coca-Cola

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

 

Sponsor: Vizio   www.vizio.com/contacts/

 

Competitor: Samsung   www.samsung.com

 

Other Sponsors: Tournament of Roses

 

Sugar Bowl—New Orleans

 

Sponsor: Allstate Insurance   https://messaging.allstate.com/corp.aspx

Here is another corporation where I have first-hand experience in dealing with their clients.  Following a major April of 1998 tornado that caused massive damage to thousands of homes in Middle Tennessee, there was a not-so-funny joke going around about all the houses that still had blue tarps covering their roofs a year later—those were All-State’s clients.  An online search for complaints turned up 974K responses.

 

Competitor: State Farm, Travelers, and Prudential

 

Other Sponsors: AT&T, Hilton & Mariott Hotels, Taco Bell, Domino’s Sugar, Ticketmaster

 

Orange Bowl—Miami

 

Sponsor: Discover Card  1-800-discover (you must register to send an email, so flood their switchboard with calls)

 

Competitor: Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards® Premier Credit Card from Chase   http://www.mychasecreditcards.com/southwest/affiliate?AFFID=KB4qoSTKkC8-iZ4lTMucfAHGCFmhbBL1Ew&pvid=f58027ae8c5f682fe1149ffe96c0fe1c

 

Other Sponsors: American Airlines, Bacardi Rum, Budweiser, Coca-Cola, Publix, Reese’s Peanut Butter, Ryder, Taco Bell,Toyota

 

Fiesta Bowl—Tempe, AZ

 

Sponsor: Tostitos (Frito-Lay)  www.fritolay.com/about-us/contact-us.html

Talk about the opposite of nutrition.  Start with genetically modified corn.  Throw in unhealthy canola and/or soy oils, again genetically modified.  I could go on and on.  It is easy enough to purchase organic potatoes, slice them into thin pieces, sprinkle a little organic olive oil on them and then bake them in a hot oven.

 

Competitor: For those that absolutely must eat junk food, try Kettle Chips   www.kettlebrand.com/  Kettle Chips are free of trans fats, GMO ingredients or oils, and artificial ingredients.  They make an organic chip.

 

Other Sponsors: Chevrolet

 

Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX (@ Cowboys Stadium)

 

Sponsor: AT&T  www.att.com

AT&T quite possible has the very worst customer service in the history of retail business.  A search for AT&T complaints online turns up more than 3.6 million results.  There are many horror stories including threats against those e-mailing complaints to the company.

 

Competitor: Verizon, Sprint-Nextel, T-Mobile for communications; your local cable provider, Directv, or dish network for entertainment.

 

Other Sponsors:EnterpriseRent-a-Car, Samsung, Dr. Pepper, Snapple, American Airlines, Wilson Sporting Goods, Hyatt-Regency Hotels, Lawry’s Seasoning Salt, Buick-Pontiac-GMC Truck, Hilton Hotels

 

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham

 

Sponsor: BBVA Compass Bank  www.bbvacompass.com/contact/   Compass Bank operates in the states ofAlabama,Arizona,California,Colorado,Florida,New Mexico andTexas

 

Competitor: Many in each market.  Consider a locally owned bank if you have one, but check their rating first.

 

Other Sponsors: Ramada Inn, Sheraton, Golden Flake Potato Chips, Taxslayer.com, Chick-fil-A

 

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

 

Sponsor: GoDaddy.com web-hosting   PR@GoDaddy.com

 

Competitor: Read current web-hosting reviews at: http://www.hosting-review.com/?gclid=CLPenrDUpKoCFcYE2godhDbOWA

 

Other Sponsors: Coca-Cola, Quality Inn, Comcast, Courtyard by Marriott, Fedex, Chevrolet, Red Lobster

 

 

The bowls could be retained and coexist with a playoff, and they could even be better than they are now.  What if instead of having to invite a bunch of 6-6 and 7-5 teams, every bowl participant was 0-0?  Then, it would be impossible to state that any team was undeserving of a bowl game. 

 

Why not move the bowls to the opening week of the season?  Make it like the Preseason NIT and other in-season tournaments in college basketball.  By moving a bowl from January to the first Saturday in September, the bowls and the participating teams would have months to prepare for the games.  Instead of having 30+ meaningless bowls, all of them would now be very important. 

 

Imagine a scenario whereAlabamaandOklahomafaced off in the preseason Cotton Bowl at Cowboys’ Stadium.  What aboutPennStateplayingFloridaStatein the preseason Sugar Bowl?  What ifNevadaplayedTulsain the New Mexico Bowl?  The game would be an exciting one to watch, and the winner could use it as a springboard to possibly move into the playoff picture. 

 

The Rose Bowl could be like today’s ACC/Big Ten basketball challenge in December. OhioStatecould playOregoninPasadenaon the first Saturday in September as a great kickoff to the season.  And, unlike the current bowl situation, the loser could still win the national championship.

 

The bowl officials would then have all winter, spring, and summer to plan and promote their opening week spectaculars.  Hotel reservations could be made months in advance.  There could be even more festivities planned with all the extra time, since the participating teams and the public would know well in advance which teams would be headed to each bowl.

 

This plan also would allow some teams that have never been to a bowl or have not been in decades a chance to go bowling and bring along very enthusiastic fans.  ImagineKentStateandNew MexicoStatebeing invited to play each other in a bowl.  The Golden Flashes have not tasted a postseason game since 1972, while the Aggies have been left out since 1960!  This game would generate a lot more interest than two 6-6 teams playing around Christmas.

 

If there were playoffs instead of bowls, then the public would not be faced with so many patsy games likePennStatevs.Indiana State,Illinoisvs.Arkansas State,Nebraskavs.Chattanooga,MichiganState vs.YoungstownState, andIowavs. Tennessee Tech.  Instead of worrying about automatic wins over FCS and low-tiered FBS teams, the top teams would need to increase their strengths of schedule, just like the need for basketball teams to schedule with RPI in mind.  Which games would draw more ratings for the telecasters?  The ones mentioned above or 35 games similar to the pair of opening week classic games scheduled this year—Georgiavs.BoiseStateand LSU vs.Oregon?  Here is one example for what could be:

 

Date

Time EDT

Bowl Team Team
Th 9/1

7:00 PM

Beef O’Brady’s Northwestern North Carolina St.
Th 9/1

7:30 PM

New Orleans Kansas St. Colorado
Th 9/1

8:00 PM

New Mexico Oregon St. San Diego St.
Th 9/1

9:00 PM

Humanitarian Purdue Utah
Fr 9/2

7:00 PM

MAACO BostonCollege Connecticut
Fr 9/2

8:00 PM

Independence Air Force Virginia
Fr 9/2

9:30 PM

Poinsettia Washington B Y U
Fr 9/2

11:00 PM

Hawaii S M U Hawaii
Sa 9/3

12:00 PM

Little Caesar’s Illinois Rutgers
Sa 9/3

12:00 PM

Belk Clemson South Florida
Sa 9/3

12:30 PM

Military North Carolina Cincinnati
Sa 9/3

1:00 PM

Champs Sports Miami(Fl) Auburn
Sa 9/3

1:00 PM

Pinstripe Pittsburgh Georgia Tech
Sa 9/3

1:30 PM

Liberty MississippiState Tulsa
Sa 9/3

1:30 PM

Chick-fil-A PennState West Virginia
Sa 9/3

2:30 PM

Compass Tennessee Central Florida
Sa 9/3

2:30 PM

GoDaddy.com Southern Miss. Kentucky
Sa 9/3

3:00 PM

MusicCity Michigan Louisville
Sa 9/3

3:00 PM

Sun Texas MichiganState
Sa 9/3

3:30 PM

TicketCity Missouri Houston
Sa 9/3

3:30 PM

Armed Forces Arizona Baylor
Sa 9/3

6:00 PM

Capital One OhioState Florida
Sa 9/3

6:15 PM

Outback Georgia Virginia Tech
Sa 9/3

6:30 PM

Fight Hunger U C L A Nevada
Sa 9/3

7:45 PM

Meineke Car Care Ole Miss Maryland
Sa 9/3

8:00 PM

Alamo ArizonaState Iowa
Sa 9/3

9:30 PM

Insight TexasTech California
Sa 9/3

10:30 PM

Holiday Southern Cal T C U
Su 9/4

2:00 PM

Gator South Carolina OklahomaState
Su 9/4

3:00 PM

Cotton FloridaState Nebraska
Su 9/4

4:30 PM

Sugar BoiseState Arkansas
Su 9/4

6:00 PM

Orange L S U TexasA&M
Mo 9/5

8:00 PM

Champions * Alabama Oregon
Mo 9/5

8:30 PM

Fiesta Oklahoma Notre Dame
Mo 9/5

9:00 PM

Rose Stanford Wisconsin

 

* The Champions Bowl replaces the current National Championship Bowl Game and will pit the two most recent national champions.

 

Now, ask yourself this question: would you rather watch the big teams slaughter the FCS teams in week one, or would you rather watch this list of 35 games that will go a long way in determining power ratings for playoff seeding in December?

April 4, 2011

The 2011 NCAA Basketball Championship Game Preview

Tip Time:  Approximately 9:23 PM EDT (but expect it to be a couple minutes late)

Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston (Home of the Houston Astros)

Television: CBS

Radio: Westwood One

 

It has happened before.  A team that lost in the National Championship Game one year has returned to the title game a year later.  It has happened thrice.  Two times, the team in question lost again.  In 1983 and 1984, Houston lost to North Carolina State and Georgetown.  In 1992 and 1993, Michigan lost to Duke and North Carolina. 

 

In 1990, Duke was embarrassed by UNLV in the biggest Championship Game loss in history, but the Blue Devils came back in 1991 to beat Kansas for all the marbles.

 

Butler Bulldogs

Location: Indianapolis, IN

Conference: Horizon League

Record: 28-9

 

Butler Bulldogs–Starters in Bold  
No. Name Pos. Class Ht Wt PPG RPG Other  
1 Shelvin Mack G Jr 6-03 215 16.1 4.4 3.5 Ast  
2 Shawn Vanzant G Sr 6-00 172 8.2 3.2 41.7% 3-pt, 1.7 Ast  
3 Zach Hahn G Sr 6-01 176 5.1 1.2 85.7% FT  
4 Erik Fromm F Fr 6-09 220 0.8 0.5 26 G, 3.4 min  
5 Ronald Nored G Jr 6-00 174 5.1 3.1 2.4 Ast, 1.1 Stl, A+ defender  
11 Alex Anglin G/F Sr 6-05 177 0.7 0.7 18 G, 4.3 min  
20 Chrishawn Hopkins G Fr 6-01 165 1.6 0.5 20 G, 6.1 min  
22 Grant Leiendecker G Sr 6-05 182 1.2 0.3 15 G, 2.3 min  
23 Khyle Marshall F Fr 6-07 210 5.9 3.9 51.7% FG, 15.4 min  
30 Emerson Kampen C So 6-09 189 0 0.1 15 G, 1.9 min  
32 Garrett Butcher F Jr 6-07 209 1.6 1.3 29 G, 7.4 min  
33 Chase Stigall G So 6-04 195 3.8 1.7 16.2 min  
44 Andrew Smith C So 6-11 239 8.6 5.5 61% FG  
54 Matt Howard F Sr 6-08 230 16.7 7.8 1.5 Ast, 1.1 Stl  
       
Head Coach Brad Stevens    
Assistant Matthew Graves    
Assistant Terry Johnson    
Assistant Micah Shrewsberry    
       
Team Stats Butler Opp    
Points Per Game 72.1 64.4    
Field Goal % 44.1 42.6    
3-point % 35.5 32.8    
FT % 72.9 66.8    
Rebounds Per Game 35.0 31.5    
Turnovers Per Game 11.1 12.5    
Steals Per Game 5.9      
R + T (*) 5.48          
SOS 55      
Road Win % 70      
PiRate Criteria # 6      
 

(*) R+T= [R+({.2S}*{1.2T})], where R is reb. margin, T=Turnover margin, S=Steals per game

If turnover margin is negative, then adjust it to: R+T= [R+({.2S}+{1.2T})]

 

Connecticut Huskies

Location: Storrs, CT

Conference: Big East

Record: 31-9

 

Connecticut Huskies–Starters in Bold
No. Name Pos. Class Ht Wt PPG RPG Other
1 Enosch Wolf C Fr 7-01 260 1.0 0.9 7 G, 3.7 min
2 Donnell Beverly G Sr 6-04 190 1.7 1.3 8.6 min
3 Jeremy Lamb G/F Fr 6-05 185 11.1 4.4 1.6 Ast
4 Jamal Coombs-McDaniel F So 6-07 210 5.8 2.7 80% FT
5 Niels Giffey G/F Fr 6-07 210 2.2 1.3 9.5 min
10 Tyler Olander F Fr 6-09 225 1.5 1.8 9.7 min
13 Shabazz Napier G Fr 6-00 170 7.9 2.4 3.1 Ast, 1.6 Stl
15 Kemba Walker G Jr 6-01 172 23.7 5.4 81.8% FT, 4.6 Ast, 1.9 Stl
21 Kyle Bailey G Sr 6-03 170 0.0 0.0 6 G, 1.0 min
22 Roscoe Smith F Fr 6-08 205 6.5 5.2 1.2 Blk
23 Benjamin Stewart F Jr 6-05 205 0.5 0.5 4 G, 1.0 min
34 Alex Oriakhi F/C So 6-09 240 9.6 8.7 1.6 Blk
35 Charles Okwandu C Sr 7-00 255 2.9 2.7 1.3 Blk
                 
     
Head Coach Jim Calhoun  
Assistant George Blaney  
Assistant Andre LaFleur  
Assistant Kevin Ollie  
     
Team Stats U Conn Opp  
Points Per Game 72.8 65.4  
Field Goal % 43.6 39.8  
3-point % 33.3 32.9  
FT % 76.1 68.2  
Rebounds Per Game 39.3 35.2  
Turnovers Per Game 11.4 11.7  
Steals Per Game 6.4    
R + T (*) 4.56        
SOS 61    
Road Win % 78    
PiRate Criteria # 11    

 

Player Matchups

5: Butler—Andrew Smith vs. Connecticut—Charles Okwandu

Smith is quicker and more agile than Okwandu.  Smith can force Okawandu outside of the low post, while Okwandu does not have to be guarded when he is more than 10 feet away from the hoop.  In the paint, Okwandu has a strength advantage, but much of this advantage can be neutralized by Smith’s superior mobility.

 

Advantage: Smith by a little

 

4: Butler—Matt Howard vs. Connecticut—Alex Oriakhi

This is one of two keys to the game.  Howard can turn the tide of this game if he is on target from outside.  Oriakhi is a key rebounder for UConn, and if he is forced to stay outside to keep Howard from getting open looks, much of Connecticut’s rebounding advantage will dissipate.  Oriakhi can dominate Howard inside, and he has a chance to be a surprise hero in this game. 

 

When UCLA was dominating the Championship Game, the Bruins always had a surprise showing from a player that had not been expected to shine.  Memories of Steve Patterson almost single-handedly defeating Villanova in 1971 come to mind.  Ironically, that game was played next door at the Astrodome.

 

Advantage: Howard, but it needs to be a decided advantage and it may not

 

3: Butler—Chase Stigall vs. Connecticut—Roscoe Smith

Smith has a big size advantage, but he is not a major contributor.  Stigall starts, but he does not play half the time.  He will split minutes with Khyle Marshall and others. 

 

Look for Smith to win this positional battle for the Huskies, but it shouldn’t be what swings this game.

 

Advantage: Smith, but by an inconsequential amount.

 

2. Butler—Shawn Vanzant vs. Connecticut—Jeremy Lamb

Lamb has the potential to be the game-decider if Butler forgets he is capable of scoring 15-18 points in a game where 60 points might win the title.  He has a size and quickness advantage  over Vanzant. 

 

Vanzant is a better outside shooter, and if he could drain a couple of threes in the first half, it could mean a lot for Butler.

 

Advantage: Lamb, and the amount of advantage could be the difference in this game

 

1. Butler—Shelvin Mack vs. Connecticut—Kemba Walker

Walker would have the advantage over every other guard in the nation, so this is not really up for discussion.  However, if Mack could force Walker to take a few more shots to get his average and force his passes wide, Butler could in essence win this positional battle.

 

Walker absolutely must have a typical or better than typical game.  He will lead the Huskies in scoring; he will dish out four or five assists, and he will come up with a couple of steals.

 

Mack could match Walker point-for-point in this game, but if that happens, Butler will not win this game.  Mack’s ability to get the ball in low for easy shots is more important than his scoring ability.  We do not mean to say that he should forego shooting; we refer to Mack’s trying to score 25 points to match Walker.  If he scores 15 points and dishes out an equal amount of assists to Walker, then he will have done his job.

 

Advantage: Walker, but will it be enough?

 

Bench: Butler—Zach Hahn, Ronald Nored, Khyle Marshall vs. Connecticut—Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, Niels Giffey, Tyler Olander, Shabazz Napier

 

Butler’s three bench players each brings something different to the table.  Hahn is probably the best shooter in this game.  He is a rhythm shooter.  If he hits his first three, the opponent has to change its defense to keep from being shot out of the gym.

 

Nored is the best defender in this game, and he will be called on to temper Walker.  Going back to our 1971 UCLA comparison, he is the Kenny Heitz of Butler.

 

Marshall can come in and produce instant inside offense, and he plays tough defense in the lane.  He will see as much playing time as Stigall.

 

Connecticut goes nine-deep, but there is not more quality in their additional quantity.  The Husky bench is rather weak, with Napier and Coombs-McDaniel the two best reserves.  Neither should be much of a factor in this game.

 

Advantage: Butler by enough to matter if the game is strenuous.

 

Our Prediction:  We see this game playing out in a similar manner to last year’s Championship Game.  Connecticut has the talent to win this game by double digits, but Butler plays so intelligently and can keep this game close with a chance to win at the end.

 

If Walker has a big night, we do not believe Mack and Nored can come up with enough stops to prevent him from scoring 20-25 points in a limited possession game.  If Walker tries to be a superhero and commits five turnovers while shooting too many off-balance shots, then he could still score 20 points but give up more than 20 points to Butler.

 

Upon reviewing all the players’ abilities and tendencies, we believe this game will be decided at the four position.  If Howard goes out with a career night, Butler will cut down the nets.  If he has a typical night, this game will still be in doubt after the final TV timeout.  If he has an off night, Connecticut will win by eight to 12 points.

 

We tend to believe this will be just as memorable as last year’s game with the strong possibility that the team that scores the last points will win the game.  We believe there is a good chance this game could still be undecided after 40 minutes.  There have been few overtime games in the championship. 

 

The first OT title game came in 1944 when Utah edged Dartmouth 42-40 at Madison Square Garden.  In 1957, North Carolina defeated Kansas and Wilt Chamberlain in triple OT 54-53.  Cincinnati appeared in two OT title games; the first was a happy ending with a 70-65 OT thriller over in-state rival and defending national champ Ohio State.  In 1963, Loyola of Chicago upset Bearcats 60-58 in OT.  Michigan edged Seton Hall in OT 80-79 in the 1989 title game. In 1997, Arizona pulled off a big upset over defending national champ Kentucky by a score of 84-79  , and Kansas defeated Memphis in OT in 2008 by a score of 75-68.

 

Predicted Score: Connecticut 69  Butler 66 in double OT!

 

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