The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 25, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 8: October 28-November 1, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ArizonaGreen Bay7.48.78.0
AtlantaCarolina1.11.11.9
BuffaloMiami17.416.717.2
ChicagoSan Francisco-1.8-1.4-1.8
ClevelandPittsburgh2.93.72.4
DenverWashington7.77.57.9
DetroitPhiladelphia-2.1-2.0-3.2
HoustonLA Rams-16.2-18.1-16.3
IndianapolisTennessee4.33.63.6
LA ChargersNew England3.95.25.0
MinnesotaDallas0.8-0.10.5
N.Y. JetsCincinnati-5.1-5.2-4.3
New OrleansTampa Bay1.80.52.9
SeattleJacksonville16.014.215.8
Kansas CityN.Y. Giants13.914.014.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
ArizonaGreen Bay53
AtlantaCarolina51
BuffaloMiami45.5
ChicagoSan Francisco38.5
ClevelandPittsburgh43.5
DenverWashington37
DetroitPhiladelphia47
HoustonLA Rams51.5
IndianapolisTennessee51.5
LA ChargersNew England43
MinnesotaDallas53
N.Y. JetsCincinnati47
New OrleansTampa Bay50
SeattleJacksonville47.5
Kansas CityN.Y. Giants50.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo110.1109.9110.5110.1254-2
New England101.8101.1101.4101.4193-4
Miami95.295.595.795.520.51-6
N. Y. Jets88.088.588.488.3221-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.2104.8105.1105.0255-2
Cincinnati102.6103.4102.7102.9255-2
Cleveland101.6101.7100.8101.425.54-3
Pittsburgh101.6100.9101.3101.3183-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis104.0103.5103.8103.8243-4
Tennessee103.0103.2103.5103.227.55-2
Jacksonville90.091.589.990.5231-5
Houston88.787.488.888.3241-6

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City102.3102.2102.0102.230.53-4
LA Chargers100.9101.2101.2101.1244-2
Las Vegas97.998.298.498.2275-2
Denver98.398.197.998.1173-4


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.8103.9102.4103.030.55-1
Philadelphia95.895.796.596.0212-5
N.Y. Giants95.795.695.195.5202-5
Washington93.593.693.093.4202-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.8103.6104.0103.826.56-1
Minnesota100.6100.8100.0100.522.53-3
Chicago95.395.494.995.215.53-4
Detroit91.891.991.991.9260-7

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.2110.1109.8110.028.56-1
New Orleans107.8106.2108.2107.421.54-2
Atlanta96.396.297.496.628.53-3
Carolina95.194.995.195.122.53-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona108.3109.3109.3109.026.57-0
LA Rams108.0108.5108.1108.227.56-1
Seattle103.2103.0102.9103.024.52-5
San Francisco100.4100.2100.0100.2232-4

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Cincinnati
2Las Vegas
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Baltimore
6LA Chargers
7Cleveland

NFC
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1LA Chargers
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Tennessee
5Cincinnati
6Las Vegas
7Cleveland

NFC Seeding
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Minnesota
7New Orleans
Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Cleveland
Las Vegas over Baltimore
Cincinnati over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Green Bay over Minnesota
LA Rams over Dallas

Divisional Round
LA Chargers over Las Vegas
Buffalo over Cincinnati
LA Rams over Arizona
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Conference Championship
LA Chargers over Buffalo
LA Rams over Tampa Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
LA Rams over LA Chargers

October 18, 2021

PiRate Ratings–NFL for Week 7, October 21-25, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ClevelandDenver6.36.65.9
Green BayWashington13.012.713.8
TennesseeKansas City-0.7-0.6-0.3
MiamiAtlanta1.31.90.9
New EnglandN.Y. Jets11.49.89.9
N.Y. GiantsCarolina-0.8-0.8-1.9
BaltimoreCincinnati12.211.112.4
Las VegasPhiladelphia4.54.73.7
LA RamsDetroit20.120.720.5
ArizonaHouston21.724.022.3
Tampa BayChicago14.513.913.9
San FranciscoIndianapolis2.22.72.4
SeattleNew Orleans-1.40.4-2.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
ClevelandDenver43.5
Green BayWashington48
TennesseeKansas City60.5
MiamiAtlanta50
New EnglandN.Y. Jets38.5
N.Y. GiantsCarolina43.5
BaltimoreCincinnati48.5
Las VegasPhiladelphia47
LA RamsDetroit54
ArizonaHouston51.5
Tampa BayChicago44
San FranciscoIndianapolis47
SeattleNew Orleans48.5

Teams With Byes This Week

Buffalo
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville
LA Chargers
Dallas
Minnesota

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo109.8109.6110.2109.8254-2
New England99.698.798.999.1182-4
Miami95.495.896.095.7211-5
N. Y. Jets91.291.991.991.720.51-4


NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore108.0107.6108.1107.924.55-1
Cleveland101.7101.8100.9101.5263-3
Pittsburgh101.3100.6101.0101.0183-3
Cincinnati98.899.698.799.0244-2


SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.6102.0102.2102.3242-4
Tennessee101.3101.4101.6101.428.54-2
Jacksonville89.791.289.690.2231-5
Houston89.488.189.689.124.51-5


WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.5104.5104.4104.5323-3
LA Chargers100.6100.9100.9100.8244-2
Denver98.498.298.098.217.53-3
Las Vegas97.697.897.897.726.54-2


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas102.5103.6102.1102.730.55-1
Philadelphia96.196.197.196.420.52-4
Washington93.693.893.193.5212-4
N.Y. Giants93.793.592.893.320.51-5


NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.7103.4103.9103.7275-1
Minnesota100.3100.599.7100.222.53-3
Chicago97.097.396.997.115.53-3
Detroit91.591.591.491.526.50-6


SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay108.5108.2107.8108.228.55-1
New Orleans107.7105.9108.1107.222.53-2
Carolina97.497.397.797.5233-3
Atlanta96.195.997.196.4292-3


WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams108.6109.2108.9108.927.55-1
Arizona108.1109.1109.0108.7276-0
Seattle103.3103.3103.0103.2262-4
San Francisco101.8101.7101.6101.7232-3

Playoff Projections

Current Playoff Seedings

AFC
1Baltimore
2LA Chargers
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Cincinnati
6Las Vegas
7Pittsburgh
NFC
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota

PiRate Projections

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Buffalo
3Kansas City
4Tennessee
5Pittsburgh
6Cincinnati
7Las Vegas
NFC Seeding
1Tampa Bay
2Arizona
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6Minnesota
7New Orleans

Projected Playoff Rounds

Wildcard Round
Buffalo over Las Vegas
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh over Tennessee
Arizona over New Orleans
Green Bay over Minnesota
LA Rams over Dallas


Divisional Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Buffalo
Tampa Bay over LA Rams
Arizona over Green Bay


Conference Championship
Kansas City over Baltimore
Tampa Bay over Arizona


Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Kansas City over Tampa Bay

September 27, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL For September 30-October 4, 2021

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:27 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
CincinnatiJacksonville9.79.010.0
AtlantaWashington4.03.76.0
ChicagoDetroit4.75.04.0
N.Y. JetsTennessee-5.4-4.9-4.6
MinnesotaCleveland1.01.31.5
MiamiIndianapolis2.64.24.8
DallasCarolina5.36.33.2
New OrleansN.Y. Giants16.814.618.2
PhiladelphiaKansas City-6.6-6.8-5.1
BuffaloHouston16.417.316.1
LA RamsArizona7.47.16.8
San FranciscoSeattle1.21.21.4
DenverBaltimore0.61.40.8
Green BayPittsburgh4.95.45.3
New EnglandTampa Bay-4.0-4.7-4.1
LA ChargersLas Vegas6.76.96.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
CincinnatiJacksonville46.5
AtlantaWashington48
ChicagoDetroit45.5
N.Y. JetsTennessee48.5
MinnesotaCleveland49.5
MiamiIndianapolis44.5
DallasCarolina49
New OrleansN.Y. Giants41.5
PhiladelphiaKansas City50.5
BuffaloHouston51.5
LA RamsArizona56
San FranciscoSeattle52
DenverBaltimore42.5
Green BayPittsburgh44
New EnglandTampa Bay46.5
LA ChargersLas Vegas50.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

September 28, 2021
A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L
Buffalo106.9106.7107.2106.9252-1
Miami99.6100.2100.8100.2201-2
New England99.598.698.899.018.51-2
N. Y. Jets90.991.591.691.420.50-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore104.3103.6104.2104.0252-1
Cleveland103.3103.5102.4103.125.52-1
Pittsburgh101.3100.6101.0101.0171-2
Cincinnati97.498.297.397.6242-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.399.499.399.3282-1
Indianapolis100.099.099.099.324.50-3
Houston93.592.394.093.326.51-2
Jacksonville90.792.290.391.122.50-3

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City104.7104.6104.3104.5311-2
Denver101.9102.0102.0102.017.53-0
LA Chargers101.7102.0102.0101.923.52-1
Las Vegas97.998.298.398.1273-0

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L
Dallas101.2102.3100.2101.2282-1
Philadelphia95.695.496.695.919.51-2
N.Y. Giants95.395.394.595.019.50-3
Washington94.494.893.794.3201-2

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.3102.9103.3103.2272-1
Minnesota101.3101.8100.9101.3241-2
Chicago95.996.195.495.817.51-2
Detroit93.293.193.493.2280-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans109.0106.9109.7108.5222-1
Tampa Bay106.5106.3105.9106.2282-1
Carolina98.498.599.598.8213-0
Atlanta96.095.997.296.4281-2

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams107.6108.2107.7107.8283-0
Seattle103.9103.8103.6103.827.51-2
Arizona103.2104.1103.9103.7283-0
San Francisco102.1102.0102.0102.024.52-1

February 10, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:30 pm

February 11, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
KansasIowa St.12.3
MinnesotaPurdue0.1
Air ForceFresno St.-5.3
Boise St.UNLV10.1
CaliforniaUtah-6.3
StanfordColorado-2.4
ArizonaadoOregon St.10.1
Arizona St.Oregon-2.4
WashingtonUSC-13.7
Washington St.UCLA-5.5

An answer to a frequent question: Will you have Bracketnomics this year?

Answer: We plan to introduce an updated, new Bracketnomics edition this year. We actually hoped to have this debut last season, but obviously, the nasty virus ended the basketball season just before the NCAA Tournament brackets were chosen.

Another Question from many of you: Where have you been? You have not produced what you normally have.

Answer: Our basketball ratings were delayed because the ratings are based on advanced statistical metrics produce too much variance until about 3,500 total games have been played. Many teams have played too few games to lower the variance.

Additionally, we have been working many hours creating an advanced sabermetric tabletop baseball strategy game, one that includes many factors that other games do not have. We hope to be ready to debut this game in March. Stay tuned to this page for information on the new game and its website.

March 5, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 5, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Alabama A&M

Grambling

-2.9

Alabama St.

Jackson St.

-0.5

Alcorn St.

Prairie View A&M

-5.4

American

Bucknell

6.1

Arizona

Washington St.

16.3

Arizona St.

Washington

4.0

Army

Lafayette

0.3

Austin Peay

Eastern Illinois

4.3

Bethune-Cookman

Florida A&M

5.2

Boston U

Navy

8.5

Colgate

Lehigh

13.9

Connecticut

Houston

-1.8

Drake

Illinois St.

2.3

Eastern Kentucky

Tennessee St.

-2.1

Eastern Washington

Idaho St.

13.0

Gardner-Webb

UNC Asheville

5.2

Green Bay

Oakland

3.5

Howard

Delaware St.

2.8

Idaho

Weber St.

-1.2

Illinois Chicago

Youngstown St.

3.8

Liberty

Stetson

17.1

Long Beach St.

Cal Poly

4.6

Longwood

Hampton

1.6

Loyola Marymount

San Diego

1.3

Maryland-Eastern Shore

Coppin St.

-3.4

Memphis

Wichita St.

1.7

Michigan

Nebraska

16.1

Montana

Northern Colorado

-0.7

Montana St.

Southern Utah

-1.1

Morgan St.

Norfolk St.

-1.2

Nevada

Wyoming

13.1

New Mexico St.

California Baptist

8.6

North Carolina Central

North Carolina A&T

3.5

North Florida

Lipscomb

8.6

Ohio St.

Illinois

7.2

Oregon

California

16.0

Oregon St.

Stanford

-0.8

Portland St.

Northern Arizona

4.7

Radford

Charleston Southern

12.1

San Diego St.

Air Force

18.3

Santa Clara

Portland

7.7

Southern

Texas Southern

2.7

UC Davis

Hawaii

3.1

UC Santa Barbara

Cal St. Fullerton

9.9

UNLV

Boise St.

0.4

Utah St.

New Mexico

9.0

Utah Valley

UMKC

1.8

Valparaiso

Evansville

8.2

Winthrop

South Carolina Upstate

11.8

 

Key TV Games on Thursday

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN

Ohio St.

Illinois

9:00 PM

ESPN

Memphis

Wichita St.

 

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT UPDATE

Wednesday’s Results

 

Mountain West Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Air Force

77

Fresno St.

70

New Mexico

79

San Jose St.

66

Wyoming

80

Colorado St.

74

 

 

Northeast Tournament

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Robert Morris

59

St. Francis (NY)

58

St. Francis (PA)

87

Bryant

61

Sacred Heart

61

Mount St. Mary’s

59

Long Island

73

Fairleigh-Dickinson

72

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Tennessee St.

74

Morehead St.

67

Eastern Illinois

67

Jacksonville St.

61

 

 

Thursday’s Games

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament

Semifinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

1 Liberty (28-4)

4 Stetson (16-16)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

2 North Florida (21-11)

3 Lipscomb (15-15)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

 

Big South Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

at #1 Seed Radford

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

2 Winthrop (21-10)

7 USC Upstate (13-19)

12:00 PM

ESPN3

3 Gardner-Webb (15-15)

6 UNC-Asheville (15-15)

2:00 PM

ESPN3

1 Radford (20-10)

8 Chas. Southern (14-17)

6:00 PM

ESPN3

4 Longwood (14-17)

5 Hampton (13-18)

8:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

3 Green Bay (16-15)

6 Oakland (14-18)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Illinois Chicago (15-17)

5 Youngstown (18-14)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Patriot League Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

2 American (16-13)

7 Bucknell (13-19)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

3 Boston U (18-13)

6 Navy (14-15)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

4 Army (15-14)

5 Lafayette (18-11)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

1 Colgate (23-8)

8 Lehigh (11-20)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

 

 

 

Mountain West Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

Las Vegas (Thomas & Mack Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 San Diego St. (28-1)

9 Air Force (12-19)

2:30 PM

CBSSN

4 UNLV (17-14)

5 Boise St. (19-11)

5:00 PM

CBSSN

2 Utah St. (23-8)

7 New Mexico (19-13)

9:00 PM

CBSSN

3 Nevada (19-11)

11 Wyoming (8-23)

11:30 PM

CBSSN

 

 

 

Missouri Valley Tournament (Arch Madness)

1st Round

March 5

St. Louis (Enterprise Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Drake (18-13)

9 Illinois St. (10-20)

7:00 PM

MVC TV Network

7 Valparaiso (16-15)

10 Evansville (9-22)

9:30 PM

MVC TV Network

 

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

Evansville, IN (Ford Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

4 Eastern Kentucky (15-16)

5 Tennessee St. (18-14)

7:30 PM

ESPN+

3 Austin Peay (20-11)

6 Eastern Illinois (17-14)

9:30 PM

ESPN+

 

 

 

West Coast Tournament

1st Round

March 5

Las Vegas (Orleans Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Loyola Mary. (10-20)

9 San Diego (9-22)

9:00 PM

BYUtv

7 Santa Clara (19-12)

10 Portland (9-22)

11:30 PM

BYUtv

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 29, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 29, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am

Saturday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Abilene Christian

Central Arkansas

9.4

Alabama

South Carolina

6.1

Albany

Stony Brook

-3.1

Alcorn St.

Southern

-0.5

Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina

4.4

Boston U

Bucknell

8.1

Bradley

Loyola (Chi.)

1.9

Brown

Pennsylvania

-1.8

Buffalo

Akron

-1.0

Butler

DePaul

9.4

Cal St. Bakersfield

New Mexico St.

-6.7

Cal St. Northridge

Cal St. Fullerton

3.7

California

Utah

-0.2

California Baptist

Seattle

5.3

Campbell

UNC Asheville

5.2

Canisius

Saint Peter’s

-0.9

Central Connecticut

St. Francis (NY)

-4.9

Charleston

Drexel

8.6

Chattanooga

UNC Greensboro

-3.3

Clemson

Florida St.

-3.3

Colgate

Army

11.3

Colorado St.

Air Force

10.4

Columbia

Dartmouth

-0.8

Cornell

Harvard

-7.5

Denver

Western Illinois

5.5

Drake

Northern Iowa

-5.7

Duquesne

George Mason

8.3

East Carolina

Connecticut

-7.3

East Tennessee St.

Western Carolina

11.0

Eastern Kentucky

Morehead St.

4.1

Eastern Michigan

Central Michigan

4.4

Evansville

Illinois St.

-0.4

Florida Gulf Coast

North Alabama

2.0

Fresno St.

Wyoming

10.9

Furman

Citadel

21.7

Georgia

Arkansas

-1.7

Georgia Tech

Miami

6.6

Gonzaga

Saint Mary’s

13.3

Grambling

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

10.9

Grand Canyon

UT Rio Grande Valley

3.6

Green Bay

Cleveland St.

8.3

Hampton

South Carolina Upstate

4.4

Hawaii

UC Riverside

4.0

Hofstra

James Madison

14.3

Holy Cross

American

-8.4

Houston Baptist

McNeese

-5.7

Illinois Chicago

Oakland

3.8

Indiana St.

Valparaiso

4.5

Iowa

Penn St.

2.9

IUPUI

Detroit

-0.1

Jackson St.

Mississippi Valley St.

17.1

Jacksonville St.

Tennessee Tech

8.5

Kansas St.

Kansas

-12.9

Kennesaw St.

NJIT

-7.8

Kentucky

Auburn

5.3

La Salle

St. Bonaventure

-1.3

Lafayette

Navy

5.1

Lipscomb

Liberty

-9.6

Little Rock

Louisiana

9.4

Loyola (MD)

Lehigh

5.3

Loyola Marymount

San Francisco

-4.8

LSU

Texas A&M

12.3

Maine

UMBC

-2.7

Marquette

Seton Hall

2.4

Maryland

Michigan St.

1.6

Maryland-Eastern Shore

Delaware St.

5.1

Mercer

Wofford

-0.1

Miami (O)

Bowling Green

-2.5

Milwaukee

Youngstown St.

1.4

Missouri

Mississippi St.

-0.2

Missouri St.

Southern Illinois

5.1

Morgan St.

Coppin St.

5.9

Mount St. Mary’s

Fairleigh Dickinson

3.5

Murray St.

Austin Peay

4.6

Nevada

San Diego St.

-5.8

New Hampshire

Binghamton

9.6

New Mexico

Utah St.

-6.7

Niagara

Iona

-2.4

Nicholls

New Orleans

9.9

Norfolk St.

Howard

14.8

North Carolina St.

Pittsburgh

8.5

North Dakota St.

Omaha

7.8

Northern Arizona

Montana St.

4.6

Northern Colorado

Eastern Washington

6.4

Oklahoma St.

Iowa St.

4.2

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

9.1

Oral Roberts

Purdue Fort Wayne

10.8

Pepperdine

BYU

-9.5

Prairie View A&M

Alabama St.

12.4

Presbyterian

Charleston Southern

0.5

Radford

Gardner-Webb

6.9

Richmond

Massachusetts

12.2

Robert Morris

St. Francis (PA)

0.2

Sacramento St.

Montana

0.5

Sacred Heart

Long Island

6.3

Saint Joseph’s

Fordham

2.8

Samford

VMI

-0.4

San Diego

Pacific

-2.8

San Jose St.

UNLV

14.2

Santa Clara

Portland

11.2

SIU-Edwardsville

Eastern Illinois

-4.1

South Alabama

Troy

10.4

South Carolina St.

North Carolina Central

-1.9

South Dakota

North Dakota

6.8

Southeast Louisiana

Northwestern St.

-0.9

Southern Utah

Idaho

13.0

Stephen F. Austin

Lamar

12.0

Stetson

Jacksonville

0.1

Syracuse

North Carolina

5.4

TCU

Baylor

-8.3

Tennessee

Florida

-0.5

Tennessee St.

Belmont

-8.0

Texas A&M-CC

Incarnate Word

10.3

Texas Southern

Alabama A&M

10.7

Texas Tech

Texas

9.6

Toledo

Ball St.

1.9

Tulane

Memphis

-6.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

6.5

UC Davis

Long Beach St.

8.3

UC Irvine

UC Santa Barbara

6.7

UCLA

Arizona

-5.6

UMass Lowell

Vermont

-10.6

UMKC

Chicago St.

22.5

UNC Wilmington

Delaware

-3.3

USC

Arizona St.

3.3

UT Martin

Southeast Missouri

3.7

VCU

George Washington

14.4

Villanova

Providence

8.2

Virginia

Duke

-6.3

Wagner

Bryant

-3.4

Wake Forest

Notre Dame

0.2

Weber St.

Portland St.

-1.4

West Virginia

Oklahoma

7.7

Western Michigan

Northern Illinois

-1.8

William & Mary

Elon

9.2

Winthrop

High Point

17.9

Yale

Princeton

12.1

 

Saturday’s Important TV Games

 

Games in which both teams are competing for an at-large NCAA Tournament Bid or a regular conference championship in a one-bid league

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

12:00 PM

Fox

Villanova

Providence

12:00 PM

BTN

Iowa

Penn St.

12:00 PM

ESPN

Texas Tech

Texas

2:00 PM

ESPN

TCU

Baylor

2:00 PM

ACCN

Clemson

Florida St.

2:30 PM

Fox

Marquette

Seton Hall

3:45 PM

CBS

Kentucky

Auburn

4:00 PM

ESPN2

West Virginia

Oklahoma

6:00 PM

ESPN

Virginia

Duke

6:00 PM

ESPN+

Brown

Penn

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Yale

Princeton

8:00 PM

ESPN

Maryland

Michigan St.

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Murray St.

Austin Peay

8:00 PM

ESPNU

USC

Arizona St.

8:30 PM

SECN

Alabama

South Carolina

10:00 PM

ESPN2

Gonzaga

Saint Mary’s

10:00 PM

ESPN

UCLA

Arizona

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 27, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 27, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:39 am

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Austin Peay

Morehead St.

12.3

Belmont

Tennessee Tech

21.1

Cal Poly

UC Irvine

-11.5

Cal St. Bakersfield

UT Rio Grande Valley

2.3

California

Colorado

-9.9

Canisius

Iona

1.7

Charleston

Delaware

4.7

Charleston Southern

Gardner-Webb

-2.2

Fairleigh Dickinson

Bryant

0.4

Florida Atlantic

UTSA

2.7

Florida Gulf Coast

Jacksonville

-0.2

Florida Intl.

North Texas

-2.7

Gonzaga

San Diego

26.3

Grand Canyon

New Mexico St.

-5.9

Green Bay

Youngstown St.

3.5

Hampton

Radford

-7.2

Hawaii

Cal St. Fullerton

7.9

High Point

UNC Asheville

-2.0

Hofstra

Towson

6.9

Idaho St.

Portland St.

-3.2

Illinois Chicago

Detroit

7.1

IUPUI

Oakland

-4.4

Kennesaw St.

Liberty

-23.0

Little Rock

UL Monroe

10.3

Long Island

Wagner

9.1

Loyola Marymount

Pacific

-1.4

Merrimack

Central Connecticut

16.0

Miami (O)

Central Michigan

-0.6

Michigan

Wisconsin

6.6

Milwaukee

Cleveland St.

6.2

Murray St.

Eastern Kentucky

12.5

Nebraska

Ohio St.

-9.8

Niagara

Saint Peter’s

-4.1

North Alabama

NJIT

4.1

North Dakota St.

South Dakota St.

2.2

Northeastern

James Madison

12.5

Northern Arizona

Montana

-0.7

Northern Colorado

Idaho

17.4

Northwestern

Illinois

-6.8

Oral Roberts

Western Illinois

15.1

Oregon

Oregon St.

10.4

Presbyterian

Longwood

0.1

Purdue

Indiana

4.7

Sacramento St.

Montana St.

4.3

Sacred Heart

St. Francis (NY)

9.9

San Francisco

Portland

15.8

Santa Clara

Saint Mary’s

-6.3

South Carolina Upstate

Winthrop

-9.7

Southeast Missouri

Eastern Illinois

-5.0

Southern Utah

Eastern Washington

2.2

St. Francis (PA)

Mount St. Mary’s

9.2

Stetson

North Florida

-5.6

Tennessee St.

Jacksonville St.

2.8

UAB

Marshall

0.7

UC Riverside

UC Santa Barbara

-0.5

UCLA

Arizona St.

0.6

UNC Wilmington

Drexel

-0.5

USC

Arizona

-3.9

UT Martin

SIU-Edwardsville

4.5

Western Kentucky

Louisiana Tech

0.1

Wichita St.

Temple

9.7

 

Key TV Games On Thursday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Michigan

Wisconsin

7:00 PM

FS1

Purdue

Indiana

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Murray St.

Eastern Kentucky

9:00 PM

ESPN+

North Dakota St.

South Dakota St.

10:00 PM

ESPN

USC

Arizona

11:00 PM

Pac12

UCLA

Arizona St.

 

 

 

February 20, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 20, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:11 am

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Albany

UMBC

5.4

Appalachian St.

South Alabama

4.0

Arizona

Oregon St.

12.8

Arizona St.

Oregon

-0.6

Binghamton

UMass Lowell

-2.6

BYU

Santa Clara

16.4

Cal Poly

UC Davis

-2.7

Cal St. Fullerton

UC Santa Barbara

-2.9

Charleston Southern

Campbell

0.9

Cleveland St.

Northern Kentucky

-6.7

Coastal Carolina

Troy

7.9

Colorado

USC

8.6

Delaware

Northeastern

-0.3

Denver

Oral Roberts

-8.2

Drexel

Hofstra

-4.4

Eastern Illinois

Murray St.

-4.6

Eastern Kentucky

Tennessee St.

-0.4

Eastern Washington

Sacramento St.

7.0

Gonzaga

San Francisco

18.1

Hampton

Gardner-Webb

-4.5

High Point

Presbyterian

0.5

Idaho

Northern Arizona

-2.2

Indiana St.

Northern Iowa

-3.3

Iowa

Ohio St.

1.6

Jacksonville

Lipscomb

4.0

Jacksonville St.

Southeast Missouri

9.8

James Madison

Elon

3.1

Liberty

North Florida

9.6

Morehead St.

Belmont

-11.9

Nebraska

Michigan St.

-10.9

New Hampshire

Hartford

3.4

NJIT

Stetson

2.7

North Alabama

Kennesaw St.

14.7

Northern Colorado

Southern Utah

7.2

Portland

Pepperdine

-5.3

Portland St.

Montana St.

3.7

Purdue Fort Wayne

Omaha

-0.5

Radford

UNC Asheville

11.3

Saint Mary’s

Loyola Marymount

16.1

Seattle

Grand Canyon

4.1

SIU-Edwardsville

Austin Peay

-9.9

South Carolina Upstate

Longwood

1.5

Southern Illinois

Evansville

9.4

Stony Brook

Vermont

-3.7

Temple

Connecticut

0.2

Tennessee Tech

UT Martin

0.7

Texas St.

Georgia Southern

6.1

Towson

William & Mary

5.2

UC Riverside

Hawaii

2.0

UT Arlington

Georgia St.

1.8

Utah

UCLA

2.3

Utah Valley

Cal St. Bakersfield

1.7

Washington

Stanford

2.7

Wichita St.

South Florida

11.1

Youngstown St.

Wright St.

-5.8

 

Thursday’s Key Games

Maybe the best top games of the week

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN

Iowa

Ohio St.

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Liberty

North Florida

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Stony Brook

Vermont

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Texas St.

Georgia Southern

9:00 PM

ESPN

Arizona St.

Oregon

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Colorado

USC

 

The Big Three Mid-Major Conference Games on TV Tonight

Liberty vs. North Florida–The winner most likely will end up with the number one seed in the Atlantic Sun Conference.  North Florida won the first contest 71-70 in a tight game that stayed close for 40 minutes.  At the time, Liberty was 19-1 and on the cusp of becoming ranked in the top 25.

North Florida’s starting lineup all average double figure points per game.  The Ospreys are by far the best shooting team in the A-Sun, both inside and outside the 3-point line and at the foul line.

Liberty has the best defense in the A-Sun, and the Flames go seven deep with little drop in talent.  With the A-Sun Tournament played on the home courts of the higher seeds, and with these two teams being the two powers of the league, the NCAA Tournament bid will be decided when these two probably play for a third time.  Home court advantage will probably decide it.  Liberty has the edge tonight, which should give the Flames the edge when they play again in a couple weeks.

 

Stony Brook vs. Vermont–Vermont has a 2 1/2 game lead over second place Stony Brook, so this is a must win for Stony Brook as far as the regular season conference race goes.  The conference tournament is played on the home courts of the higher seeds, so getting the #1 seed means home court advantage all the way to the Championship.

These are the top two programs in the league.  Vermont has won 14 of their last 15 games, and they have a conference scoring margin of +15.8 points per game.  The Catamounts dominate every important analytic statistic in the America East Conference.  

On paper, Stony Brook doesn’t have the resume of a team that looks capable of beating Vermont.  The Seawolves barely hold control of the number two spot in the league, but they have done something no other A-East team has done–they beat Vermont, and they did it in Burlington no less.

 

Texas St. vs. Georgia Southern–These two teams are still in contention for the regular season Sun Belt Conference Championship, as they are tied for third with 10-6 SBC records, just two games behind league leader Little Rock and one game behind second place Georgia St.  

Texas St. has one of the top players in the league in senior guard Nijel Pearson.  Pearson combines excellent long range shooting with the ability to get inside and score on the offensive side and fight for rebounds on the defensive end.  Earlier this season, he almost single-handily kept Texas St. in the game at Baylor, and the Bobcats scared the top-ranked team in Waco before finally losing by nine points.

Georgia Southern has a small but quick lineup, and the Eagles are fun to watch play.  This could be the most exciting game of the night.

 

 

February 15, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 15, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am

Saturday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Air Force

San Jose St.

8.9

Alabama

LSU

2.2

Alabama St.

Alabama A&M

6.1

Alcorn St.

Mississippi Valley St.

15.9

Arkansas

Mississippi St.

4.8

Army

Lehigh

5.9

Austin Peay

Eastern Kentucky

11.8

Ball St.

Bowling Green

6.4

Baylor

West Virginia

4.7

Belmont

Jacksonville St.

14.4

Bucknell

American

1.1

Butler

Georgetown

6.9

Cal St. Bakersfield

UMKC

3.2

Cal St. Fullerton

Cal Poly

6.1

Campbell

Radford

-2.9

Central Connecticut

Bryant

-10.1

Citadel

Samford

1.2

Clemson

Louisville

-5.5

Creighton

DePaul

9.6

Dartmouth

Cornell

6.2

Delaware St.

Florida A&M

-7.8

Detroit

Cleveland St.

4.6

Duke

Notre Dame

14.3

Eastern Michigan

Western Michigan

5.2

Elon

Drexel

-0.8

Florida

Vanderbilt

14.4

Florida St.

Syracuse

9.3

Fresno St.

Utah St.

-6.3

Furman

Chattanooga

9.8

George Mason

George Washington

7.3

Georgia Southern

Appalachian St.

4.1

Georgia St.

Coastal Carolina

8.8

Grand Canyon

Chicago St.

21.2

Hartford

UMass Lowell

4.6

Harvard

Columbia

14.2

Hawaii

UC Irvine

-1.7

High Point

USC Upstate

-0.9

Hofstra

UNC Wilmington

15.0

Holy Cross

Lafayette

-7.6

Illinois St.

Valparaiso

-0.8

Iowa St.

Texas

3.3

James Madison

Towson

-3.9

Kansas

Oklahoma

13.6

Kent St.

Ohio

7.7

Kentucky

Ole Miss

10.2

Lamar

Houston Baptist

11.7

Liberty

NJIT

17.9

Lipscomb

Florida Gulf Coast

6.3

Long Beach St.

UC Riverside

-2.6

Long Island

Sacred Heart

0.8

Longwood

Hampton

4.8

Louisiana Tech

Florida Atlantic

11.7

Loyola (Chi.)

Northern Iowa

-1.7

Maryland-Eastern Shore

Bethune-Cookman

-7.7

Massachusetts

Dayton

-15.3

Mercer

UNC Greensboro

-8.1

Merrimack

Wagner

11.9

Miami (Fla.)

Wake Forest

2.1

Miami (O)

Northern Illinois

-2.3

Michigan St.

Maryland

5.5

Middle Tennessee

UAB

-2.2

Milwaukee

Green Bay

2.1

Missouri

Auburn

-4.2

Montana

Idaho St.

11.6

Montana St.

Weber St.

5.8

Mount St. Mary’s

St. Francis (PA)

-1.8

Murray St.

Morehead St.

13.7

Navy

Boston U

-1.1

Nebraska

Wisconsin

-5.0

New Mexico

UNLV

3.1

New Mexico St.

Utah Valley

14.2

New Orleans

Incarnate Word

9.6

Nicholls St.

SE Louisiana

14.7

Norfolk St.

Morgan St.

7.5

North Carolina

Virginia

1.5

North Florida

North Alabama

10.6

North Texas

Old Dominion

8.5

Northeastern

Charleston

3.0

Northern Arizona

Southern Utah

-1.9

Northwestern St.

McNeese

-1.5

Oakland

Youngstown St

3.1

Ohio St.

Purdue

5.2

Oklahoma St.

Texas Tech

-3.1

Oral Roberts

South Dakota

3.9

Oregon St.

Colorado

-2.3

Penn St.

Northwestern

15.8

Pennsylvania

Yale

-4.1

Pepperdine

Gonzaga

-16.4

Portland St.

Eastern Washington

0.1

Prairie View

Grambling

9.6

Presbyterian

Winthrop

-11.4

Princeton

Brown

5.2

Providence

Seton Hall

-2.5

Rhode Island

Saint Joseph’s

19.6

Rice

Charlotte

-0.7

Richmond

VCU

1.2

Robert Morris

Fairleigh Dickinson

8.0

Rutgers

Illinois

3.0

Sacramento St.

Northern Colorado

-4.4

Saint Louis

La Salle

8.7

Saint Mary’s

Pacific

11.8

Sam Houston St.

Central Arkansas

9.9

San Diego

BYU

-14.4

Santa Clara

Loyola Marymount

7.6

SMU

Houston

-3.4

South Alabama

UL Monroe

9.5

South Carolina

Tennessee

2.5

South Carolina St.

Coppin St.

3.2

South Florida

Tulsa

1.1

Southeast Missouri

SIU-Edwardsville

3.0

Southern

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

10.6

Southern Illinois

Bradley

-1.0

Southern Miss

Florida Intl.

-3.0

Stanford

Arizona

-2.4

Stetson

Kennesaw St.

14.4

TCU

Kansas St.

3.4

Tennessee St.

Tennessee Tech

10.3

Texas A&M

Georgia

-0.9

Texas A&M-CC

Abilene Christian

-2.8

Texas Southern

Jackson St.

5.5

Texas St.

Arkansas St.

9.8

Troy

Louisiana

0.7

UC Davis

Cal St. Northridge

4.4

UCLA

Washington

-0.6

UMBC

New Hampshire

1.8

UNC Asheville

Charleston Southern

3.5

USC

Washington St.

8.8

UT Arlington

Little Rock

3.5

UT Rio Grande Valley

Seattle

1.1

UT-Martin

Eastern Illinois

-2.5

UTEP

Marshall

1.0

UTSA

Western Kentucky

-2.8

Vermont

Binghamton

22.7

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

3.6

VMI

East Tennessee St.

-12.2

Western Illinois

North Dakota

-3.9

William & Mary

Delaware

2.6

Wofford

Western Carolina

4.2

Wyoming

Colorado St.

-9.9

 

Saturday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

12:00 PM

ESPN2

Florida St.

Syracuse

12:00 PM

Fox

Ohio St.

Purdue

1:00 PM

SECN

Arkansas

Mississippi St.

1:00 PM

ESPN3

Ball St.

Bowling Green

2:30 PM

Fox

Butler

Georgetown

4:00 PM

ESPN+

Baylor

West Virginia

4:00 PM

ESPN

Duke

Notre Dame

4:00 PM

ESPN2

Alabama

LSU

4:00 PM

CBSSN

RIchmond

VCU

4:30 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Illinois

4:30 PM

ESPN+

Austin Peay

Eastern Kentucky

6:00 PM

ESPN

Michigan St.

Maryland

6:00 PM

ESPNU

SMU

Houston

6:00 PM

ESPN+

Penn

Yale

6:00 PM

SECN

South Carolina

Tennessee

8:00 PM

ESPN2

Loyola (Chi.)

Northern Iowa

10:30 PM

Pac12

Stanford

Arizona

 

 

 

 

February 1, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 1, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am

Saturday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Abilene Christian

Incarnate Word

17.9

Alabama

Arkansas

2.3

Alabama A&M

Texas Southern

-5.3

Alabama St.

Prairie View A&M

-7.6

Albany

Vermont

-8.5

Arkansas St.

Coastal Carolina

1.6

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Grambling

-3.3

Auburn

Kentucky

2.9

Austin Peay

Eastern Illinois

7.8

Ball St.

Ohio

9.5

Baylor

TCU

13.5

Boise St.

Nevada

3.2

Brown

Columbia

5.5

Bucknell

Boston University

-0.4

Butler

Providence

10.0

BYU

Saint Mary’s

5.9

California

Oregon St.

-3.1

Chattanooga

Western Carolina

3.2

Chicago St.

UMKC

-16.7

Cincinnati

Houston

1.9

Cleveland St.

Illinois Chicago

-1.9

Colorado St.

UNLV

4.8

Davidson

Massachusetts

10.0

Dayton

Fordham

26.6

Delaware

Drexel

5.5

Delaware St.

Coppin St.

-5.9

Drake

Southern Illinois

4.1

East Tennessee St.

UNC Greensboro

2.6

Eastern Kentucky

Southeast Missouri

6.0

Eastern Michigan

Toledo

-3.6

Elon

Northeastern

-8.9

Evansville

Northern Iowa

-13.1

Fairleigh Dickinson

Mount St. Mary’s

-0.4

Florida A&M

Bethune-Cookman

0.8

Florida Atlantic

Marshall

0.2

Florida International

Western Kentucky

-2.3

Fresno St.

New Mexico

2.2

Gardner-Webb

Longwood

8.6

Georgia

Texas A&M

7.8

Georgia Southern

South Alabama

5.3

Georgia St.

Troy

15.1

Hampton

Presbyterian

5.1

Hawaii

Cal St. Northridge

8.6

Holy Cross

Colgate

-12.5

Houston Baptist

Texas A&M-CC

-5.0

Howard

Morgan St.

-5.2

Jacksonville

North Alabama

4.6

Jacksonville St.

Belmont

-7.6

James Madison

UNC Wilmington

4.0

Kansas

Texas Tech

11.8

Lafayette

American

4.8

Lehigh

Army

0.6

Liberty

Florida Gulf Coast

18.8

Lipscomb

Stetson

5.7

Little Rock

Appalachian St.

5.5

Long Beach St.

UC Santa Barbara

-3.8

Louisiana Tech

Old Dominion

11.3

Loyola (Chi.)

Bradley

3.8

Loyola (MD)

Navy

-0.8

Loyola Marymount

Pepperdine

-0.8

LSU

Ole Miss

11.9

Maine

Hartford

-1.7

Marquette

DePaul

9.3

McNeese St.

Lamar

5.5

Memphis

Connecticut

6.1

Mercer

Citadel

10.1

Merrimack

Long Island

2.8

Michigan

Rutgers

3.7

Mississippi St.

Tennessee

5.8

Mississippi Valley St.

Jackson St.

-7.7

Missouri St.

Indiana St.

0.8

Montana

Montana St.

5.2

Morehead St.

UT Martin

4.4

Murray St.

SIU-Edwardsville

18.3

Nebraska

Penn St.

-7.3

New Mexico St.

Grand Canyon

12.0

North Carolina

Boston College

11.2

North Carolina A&T

Norfolk St.

0.0

North Carolina Central

South Carolina St.

6.2

North Carolina St.

Louisville

-3.3

North Florida

Kennesaw St.

20.5

Northern Arizona

Idaho

11.3

Northern Colorado

Weber St.

12.3

Northern Illinois

Miami (O)

5.3

Northwestern

Purdue

-6.0

Northwestern St.

Central Arkansas

1.3

Notre Dame

Georgia Tech

5.5

Ohio St.

Indiana

7.5

Oklahoma

Oklahoma St.

6.0

Oral Roberts

Denver

14.4

Pacific

San Diego

7.5

Pennsylvania

Dartmouth

6.6

Portland

Santa Clara

-4.5

Princeton

Harvard

-3.9

Purdue Fort Wayne

North Dakota St.

-4.7

Radford

Charleston Southern

11.1

Rice

North Texas

-8.4

Richmond

George Washington

12.5

Robert Morris

Central Connecticut

18.4

Sacramento St.

Eastern Washington

0.6

Saint Joseph’s

Saint Louis

-7.8

Sam Houston St.

Stephen F. Austin

-0.1

San Diego St.

Utah St.

8.8

San Francisco

Gonzaga

-10.8

San Jose St.

Wyoming

2.5

Seattle

California Baptist

1.2

Seton Hall

Xavier

10.2

SMU

Tulane

11.2

South Carolina

Missouri

3.7

South Carolina Upstate

Campbell

-0.2

South Florida

Central Florida

1.9

Southeast Louisiana

New Orleans

1.0

Southern

Alcorn St.

1.6

Southern Miss

Charlotte

-3.8

Southern Utah

Idaho St.

12.7

St. Bonaventure

George Mason

5.8

St. Francis (NY)

Sacred Heart

-3.0

St. Francis (PA)

Bryant

3.6

Stanford

Oregon

-0.2

Stony Brook

UMBC

13.2

Syracuse

Duke

-8.6

Temple

East Carolina

12.8

Tennessee Tech

Tennessee St.

-4.7

Texas

Iowa St.

2.9

Texas St.

Louisiana

10.9

Towson

Charleston

1.8

Tulsa

Wichita St.

-1.1

UC Davis

Cal Poly

8.3

UC Irvine

Cal St. Fullerton

12.1

UMass Lowell

New Hampshire

2.6

USC

Colorado

0.1

UT Arlington

UL Monroe

13.0

UT Rio Grande Valley

Cal St. Bakersfield

0.5

UTEP

UAB

4.5

UTSA

Middle Tennessee

8.2

Valparaiso

Illinois St.

6.0

Vanderbilt

Florida

-9.1

Villanova

Creighton

5.4

Virginia Tech

Florida St.

-2.7

Wake Forest

Clemson

0.8

Washington

Arizona St.

5.6

Washington St.

Arizona

-10.3

West Virginia

Kansas St.

14.2

Western Illinois

South Dakota St.

-11.0

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

-0.9

William & Mary

Hofstra

1.3

Winthrop

UNC Asheville

13.4

Wisconsin

Michigan St.

-3.6

Wofford

Samford

12.1

Yale

Cornell

18.4

Youngstown St.

IUPUI

8.8

 

24 Most Important TV Games on Saturday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

11:00 AM

Fox

Seton Hall

Xavier

12:00 PM

FS1

Villanova

Creighton

12:00 PM

ESPN

Ohio St.

Indiana

1:00 PM

Fox

Wisconsin

Michigan St.

2:00 PM

ESPN

North Carolina St.

Louisville

2:00 PM

ESPNU

Mississippi St.

Tennessee

4:00 PM

ESPN2

Baylor

TCU

4:00 PM

ESPN

Kansas

Texas Tech

4:00 PM

ACCN

Virginia Tech

Florida St.

4:00 PM

ESPN+

East Tennessee St.

UNC Greensboro

4:30 PM

BTN

Michigan

Rutgers

6:00 PM

Pac12

Stanford

Oregon

6:00 PM

ESPN

Auburn

Kentucky

6:00 PM

ESPN2

Cincinnati

Houston

6:00 PM

ESPNU

Tulsa

Wichita St.

6:00 PM

ESPN+

Princeton

Harvard

6:00 PM

SECN

Alabama

Arkansas

6:30 PM

ESPN3

Sam Houston St.

Stephen F. Austin

7:00 PM

ESPN3

Albany

Vermont

8:00 PM

ESPN

Syracuse

Duke

8:00 PM

Pac12

Washington St.

Arizona

10:00 PM

CBSSN

San Diego St.

Utah St.

10:00 PM

ESPN2

BYU

Saint Mary’s

10:30 PM

FS1

USC

Colorado

 

The 10 Current Teams With The Best National Championship Resumes

It’s too early to start posting all the pertinent statistics the PiRates use to isolate on certain teams as Final Four and National Championship prospects, but it isn’t too early to tell you that in this year where there isn’t as much difference between team number one and team number 101, we will tell you that as of today, there are 10 teams that have National Championship resumes.

By resume, we refer to possessing the statistics that most of the past national champions possessed entering the NCAA Tournament.  In times of yore, we used simple statistics like rebounding margin, field goal percentage margin, turnover margin, and schedule.  In today’s advanced analytics’ culture, more accurate stats can be found that show what past national champions had in common, at least in the 21st Century.

Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency have become the WAR Statistics of basketball.  How many points per possession does a team average and yield against an average opponent?  All other stats can be considered secondary, but they are the building blocks that make up the efficiency ratings.  The game is all about scoring points and preventing the opponent from scoring points.  It is easier to score and prevent scoring against weaker teams, so adjusting the scoring abilities of all 353 teams so that their ratings can be compared on par is essential.

There are some catches to this hypothesis.  What if Team A consistently has an offensive efficiency of 105  and a defensive efficiency of 95 against an average team.  They would be considered 10 points per 100 possessions better than average, and about seven points better than an average team in a typical 70 possessions per team game.  However, this team in question may be great against an average team, because their head coach leaves his starters in the game to run the score up when he knows he can win.  But, when his team plays a really good team, his team’s efficiency is worse than expected because his team’s numbers are a bit inflated.

What we have in this case is a larger than average standard deviation of efficiency by schedule strength.  Thus, after finding a team with fancy stats against a lot of average opponents, the analytic thinker must then see how consistent each team fares when playing better than average opponents, for after all, once NCAA Tournament play begins, the average teams are not there.  Think of how The Oakland Athletics and their “Money Ball” theories didn’t work in the playoffs.  Why?  Because those stats applied to a 162-game schedule where the Athletics played 100 games against inferior teams with #4 and #5 starters in the pitching rotation, while in the playoffs, they faced only #1, #2, and #3 starters on the the best pitching stats in the league.  Playing for three-run homers might be impossible against the best pitchers in the league, when playing for one run an inning and scoring three runs might be the best chance of winning.

To apply this to college basketball, NCAA Tournament teams usually have better shooters and better defenders.  They usually are the better offensive rebounding teams, and they tend to take care of the ball better than an average team.  And, they usually are considerably better than average at forcing the other team into taking lower percentage shots.  For some reason, being able to force turnovers is not as important as it was in the 20th Century, when pressing teams dominated the Final Four for many years, but then these teams usually pressed because they were the most talented teams, and they could capitalize off opponent turnovers.

What we did today was take a look at teams that are 15% better than average in adjusted offensive efficiency, 5% better than average in adjusted defensive efficiency, adept at holding onto the ball, and better than average on the offensive glass.  Also, these teams must have shown that they can be consistent doing these things against better than average opposition.

Here, in reverse order, are our current top 10 teams with NCAA Championship resumes:

10. Villanova

  9. Dayton

  8. Gonzaga

  7. Arizona

  6. Louisville

  5. Baylor

  4. San Diego St.

  3. Michigan St.

  2. Kansas

  1. Duke

 

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!  In a year where there seems to be so much parody and no dominant teams, the top three in this comparison are basically three of the top five programs in the last 40 years!  None of the 10 teams making this list could be considered outsiders.  Even San Diego State and Dayton have been in the Sweet 16 in recent years, and the Flyers have been in the Elite 8 in the past decade.

 

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