The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 25, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, January 25, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:56 am

January 25, 2019

Seed Line

Seed SCHOOL Conf.
1 Virginia ACC
1 Duke ACC
1 Michigan St. Big Ten
1 Gonzaga West Coast
2 Tennessee SEC
2 Michigan Big Ten
2 Houston American
2 Kentucky SEC
3 North Carolina ACC
3 Purdue Big Ten
3 Virginia Tech ACC
3 LSU SEC
4 Louisville ACC
4 Kansas Big 12
4 Wisconsin Big Ten
4 Iowa St. Big 12
5 Texas Tech Big 12
5 Nevada Mountain West
5 Maryland Big Ten
5 Marquette Big East
6 Nebraska Big Ten
6 Iowa Big Ten
6 Buffalo MAC
6 Villanova Big East
7 Auburn SEC
7 Wofford Southern
7 NC State ACC
7 TCU Big 12
8 Oklahoma Big 12
8 Kansas St. Big 12
8 Mississippi St. SEC
8 Ole Miss SEC
9 Cincinnati American
9 Florida St. ACC
9 UCF American
9 Indiana Big Ten
10 Florida SEC
10 Utah St. Mountain West
10 Washington Pac-12
10 St. John’s (NY) Big East
11 Alabama SEC
11 San Francisco West Coast
11 Texas Big 12
11 Murray St. Ohio Valley
12 Lipscomb ASUN
12 Ohio St. Big Ten
12 Butler Big East
12 Syracuse ACC
12 Arizona Pac-12
12 Hofstra Colonial
13 VCU Atlantic 10
13 Yale Ivy
13 New Mexico St. WAC
13 North Texas CUSA
14 Radford Big South
14 Vermont America East
14 Texas St. Sun Belt
14 Northern Ky. Horizon
15 Montana Big Sky
15 South Dakota St. Summit
15 Loyola Chicago Missouri Valley
15 UC Irvine Big West
16 Colgate Patriot
16 Rider Metro Atlantic
16 Abilene Christian Southland
16 Texas Southern SWAC
16 St. Francis Brooklyn Northeast
16 N.C. A&T MEAC

 

First 4 Out
Baylor
Northwestern
Seton Hall
Pittsburgh
Next 4 Out
Clemson
Creighton
Temple
UNC Greensboro
Last 4 In
Ohio St.
Butler
Syracuse
Arizona
Last 4 Byes
St. John’s (NY)
Alabama
San Francisco
Texas
First 4 #16 Seeds
Abilene Christian
Texas Southern
St. Francis Brooklyn
N.C. A&T
5 Potential At-large Mid-Majors
UNC-Greensboro
Liberty
Saint Mary’s
Furman

 

Multiple Bid Leagues

Conference Bids
Big Ten 9
ACC 8
SEC 8
Big 12 7
Big East 4
AAC 3
MWC 2
Pac-12 2
West Coast 2

 

Coming Next Week

Monday: New Ratings and Bracketology

Tuesday: A closer look at the one-bid leagues and their top competitors

Friday: New Ratings and Bracketology

 

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January 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, January 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:00 am

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads For Major Conferences & Ranked Teams

Saturday’s Games
Home Team Visitor Spread
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina -6.2
Notre Dame North Carolina St. -2.9
Syracuse Pittsburgh 8.6
Virginia Tech Wake Forest 18.1
Georgia Tech Louisville -2.6
Duke Virginia 4.8
South Florida Houston -7.0
Wichita St. Cincinnati -4.9
Central Florida Tulsa 9.9
Memphis SMU 2.1
Temple Penn 5.4
Connecticut Tulane 15.7
West Virginia Kansas 3.5
Kansas St. TCU -0.3
Baylor Texas Tech -3.5
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. 12.5
Texas Oklahoma 2.0
Butler St. John’s 3.4
Seton Hall DePaul 8.0
Wisconsin Michigan 0.3
Purdue Indiana 5.9
Minnesota Penn St. 2.8
Nevada Air Force 22.3
Washington St. Stanford -1.1
USC UCLA -0.1
Washington California 17.2
Arizona Oregon St. 4.9
Arizona St. Oregon 1.3
Georgia Florida -4.3
Ole Miss Arkansas 5.8
Tennessee Alabama 14.1
Texas A&M Missouri 3.1
Auburn Kentucky 4.5
LSU South Carolina 8.6
Vanderbilt Mississippi St. -3.6
Gonzaga Loyola Marymount 21.9

 

Sunday’s Games
Home Team Visitor Spread
Boston College Florida St. -5.7
Marquette Providence 8.0
Iowa Illinois 9.7
Utah Colorado -0.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk Team PiRate
1 Duke 122.9
2 Virginia 121.6
3 Gonzaga 120.6
4 Michigan St. 120.2
5 Tennessee 119.1
6 North Carolina 117.3
7 Michigan 116.8
8 Virginia Tech 116.0
9 Kansas 115.9
10 Auburn 115.7
11 Texas Tech 115.4
12 Nebraska 114.8
13 Kentucky 114.7
14 Purdue 114.5
15 Iowa St. 114.5
16 Nevada 114.5
17 Wisconsin 113.6
18 Buffalo 113.4
19 North Carolina St. 113.0
20 TCU 113.0
21 Villanova 112.8
22 Maryland 112.4
23 Florida St. 112.4
24 Louisville 112.2
25 Ohio St. 112.0
26 Florida 111.9
27 Oklahoma 111.9
28 Mississippi St. 111.9
29 Iowa 111.7
30 Houston 111.7
31 Indiana 111.6
32 Marquette 111.6
33 Cincinnati 111.5
34 Syracuse 111.2
35 LSU 111.1
36 Texas 110.9
37 Saint Mary’s 110.6
38 Butler 110.4
39 Wofford 110.4
40 Mississippi 110.2
41 St. John’s 110.0
42 Clemson 109.8
43 Oregon 109.7
44 Kansas St. 109.7
45 Creighton 109.4
46 Central Florida 109.3
47 Utah St. 109.1
48 Washington 109.0
49 Murray St. 109.0
50 Lipscomb 108.9
51 Baylor 108.9
52 Seton Hall 108.7
53 San Francisco 108.7
54 Arizona 108.7
55 Arizona St. 108.0
56 Alabama 108.0
57 Northwestern 107.9
58 Fresno St. 107.9
59 Virginia Commonwealth 107.6
60 Miami FL 107.6
61 Arkansas 107.4
62 Temple 107.1
63 Liberty 107.1
64 Dayton 107.0
65 New Mexico St. 106.9
66 Penn St. 106.9
67 West Virginia 106.8
68 Oregon St. 106.8
69 Minnesota 106.7
70 Toledo 106.7
71 Pittsburgh 106.6
72 Georgia Tech 106.6
73 Notre Dame 106.6
74 Providence 106.6
75 UCLA 106.5
76 Vermont 106.4
77 East Tennessee St. 106.3
78 South Dakota St. 106.1
79 Xavier 106.0
80 Hofstra 106.0
81 Colorado 105.7
82 Connecticut 105.7
83 Davidson 105.6
84 Ball St. 105.6
85 Georgetown 105.6
86 SMU 105.6
87 Oklahoma St. 105.5
88 Illinois 105.5
89 South Carolina 105.5
90 BYU 105.5
91 Loyola (Chi.) 105.4
92 Vanderbilt 105.3
93 Belmont 105.1
94 Yale 105.1
95 Furman 104.9
96 USC 104.9
97 San Diego 104.8
98 Memphis 104.7
99 Texas A&M 104.7
100 Northeastern 104.7
101 Saint Louis 104.6
102 Georgia 104.6
103 Northern Kentucky 104.6
104 Missouri 104.6
105 Georgia St. 104.6
106 Western Kentucky 104.5
107 Grand Canyon 104.4
108 Old Dominion 104.3
109 UNC Greensboro 104.3
110 Boise St. 104.2
111 Texas St. 104.1
112 Montana 103.9
113 Rhode Island 103.9
114 Boston College 103.7
115 DePaul 103.7
116 Wichita St. 103.6
117 UC Irvine 103.5
118 Georgia Southern 103.5
119 North Texas 103.5
120 George Mason 103.4
121 Rutgers 103.4
122 Austin Peay 103.4
123 Charleston 103.4
124 Jacksonville St. 103.4
125 Penn 103.2
126 Akron 103.2
127 San Diego St. 103.1
128 Harvard 102.9
129 Utah Valley 102.9
130 Drake 102.8
131 Louisiana Tech 102.8
132 UC Santa Barbara 102.5
133 Brown 102.5
134 Tulsa 102.4
135 Stanford 102.3
136 Radford 102.3
137 Marshall 102.2
138 Utah 102.2
139 Northern Illinois 102.1
140 Southern Illinois 101.8
141 South Florida 101.7
142 Rider 101.7
143 Loyola Marymount 101.7
144 Bowling Green 101.6
145 Bucknell 101.5
146 Louisiana Monroe 101.5
147 Wake Forest 101.4
148 Stony Brook 101.2
149 Central Michigan 100.9
150 UNLV 100.8
151 Louisiana 100.8
152 Lehigh 100.8
153 Wright St. 100.8
154 St. Bonaventure 100.6
155 Massachusetts 100.4
156 Winthrop 100.4
157 Southern Miss 100.3
158 Valparaiso 100.3
159 Princeton 100.1
160 Gardner Webb 100.1
161 Kent St. 100.0
162 Weber St. 100.0
163 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.0
164 Duquesne 99.9
165 Samford 99.9
166 Saint Joseph’s 99.8
167 Colgate 99.6
168 Richmond 99.6
169 Eastern Michigan 99.6
170 Evansville 99.5
171 UAB 99.5
172 Abilene Christian 99.4
173 Holy Cross 99.4
174 NJIT 99.3
175 Seattle 99.3
176 New Mexico 99.3
177 Northern Colorado 99.2
178 Pacific 99.2
179 Illinois St. 99.1
180 Coastal Carolina 99.1
181 Ohio 99.0
182 Mercer 99.0
183 Miami OH 98.9
184 Pepperdine 98.7
185 Indiana St. 98.6
186 Omaha 98.6
187 Cal St. Fullerton 98.6
188 Cal St. Bakersfield 98.5
189 Dartmouth 98.5
190 American 98.5
191 Missouri St. 98.5
192 IUPUI 98.5
193 Long Beach St. 98.4
194 North Florida 98.4
195 Texas Southern 98.2
196 Washington St. 98.2
197 Hawaii 98.2
198 Green Bay 97.8
199 Troy 97.8
200 Northern Iowa 97.7
201 Iona 97.7
202 South Dakota 97.7
203 Hartford 97.6
204 Western Michigan 97.5
205 Colorado St. 97.5
206 UTSA 97.4
207 William & Mary 97.4
208 Florida Int’l. 97.3
209 Appalachian St. 97.2
210 Presbyterian 97.1
211 North Dakota St. 97.1
212 Boston University 97.1
213 Santa Clara 97.0
214 Campbell 97.0
215 High Point 97.0
216 Fordham 97.0
217 Little Rock 96.8
218 Sam Houston St. 96.8
219 Detroit 96.8
220 Illinois Chicago 96.7
221 Delaware 96.7
222 Florida Atlantic 96.7
223 Bradley 96.7
224 The Citadel 96.5
225 Oakland 96.5
226 Wagner 96.5
227 Columbia 96.4
228 Eastern Kentucky 96.3
229 Hampton 96.2
230 Maryland Baltimore Co. 96.1
231 South Alabama 96.1
232 UNC Wilmington 96.1
233 La Salle 95.9
234 California Baptist 95.9
235 East Carolina 95.9
236 UT Arlington 95.8
237 Lamar 95.8
238 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.8
239 Charleston Southern 95.7
240 UMass Lowell 95.7
241 Missouri Kansas City 95.6
242 Army 95.5
243 Canisius 95.5
244 Stephen F. Austin 95.4
245 Cornell 95.3
246 St. Francis PA 95.3
247 Sacred Heart 95.3
248 Fairfield 95.3
249 Quinnipiac 95.3
250 UC Davis 95.3
251 Air Force 95.2
252 Morehead St. 95.1
253 Idaho St. 95.1
254 James Madison 95.1
255 Long Island 95.1
256 UT Rio Grande Valley 95.0
257 Marist 95.0
258 George Washington 94.9
259 Drexel 94.9
260 California 94.8
261 North Dakota 94.8
262 Robert Morris 94.7
263 UTEP 94.5
264 Siena 94.4
265 Houston Baptist 94.3
266 Arkansas St. 94.3
267 Chattanooga 94.2
268 Longwood 94.2
269 Norfolk St. 94.2
270 Montana St. 94.2
271 Sacramento St. 94.1
272 St. Francis (Bkln) 94.1
273 Florida Gulf Coast 94.0
274 Jacksonville 94.0
275 Monmouth 94.0
276 Central Arkansas 94.0
277 New Orleans 93.9
278 North Carolina Central 93.8
279 Towson 93.8
280 Eastern Washington 93.8
281 Central Connecticut 93.7
282 Milwaukee 93.6
283 Prairie View A&M 93.6
284 Southern Utah 93.6
285 Portland St. 93.5
286 Tulane 93.5
287 Middle Tennessee 93.4
288 UC Riverside 93.2
289 Cleveland St. 93.1
290 Nicholls St. 93.0
291 Saint Peter’s 93.0
292 North Carolina A&T 93.0
293 Rice 92.9
294 Texas A&M-CC 92.9
295 Grambling St. 92.8
296 Charlotte 92.8
297 Oral Roberts 92.8
298 Youngstown St. 92.8
299 Niagara 92.7
300 Albany 92.7
301 Navy 92.6
302 Tennessee St. 92.6
303 Western Carolina 92.6
304 Western Illinois 92.6
305 Eastern Illinois 92.5
306 Loyola (MD) 92.5
307 Southeast Missouri St. 92.4
308 Lafayette 92.3
309 Wyoming 92.2
310 McNeese St. 92.2
311 Denver 92.1
312 Bethune Cookman 92.0
313 Northern Arizona 91.9
314 Cal St. Northridge 91.8
315 Howard 91.5
316 Southeastern Louisiana 91.4
317 UT Martin 91.1
318 Cal Poly 91.0
319 Portland 90.9
320 USC Upstate 90.8
321 Alabama St. 90.7
322 VMI 90.6
323 Idaho 90.3
324 North Alabama 90.2
325 Binghamton 90.1
326 Maine 90.1
327 Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.0
328 Morgan St. 89.9
329 Elon 89.8
330 Manhattan 89.7
331 Florida A&M 89.2
332 South Carolina St. 89.2
333 Jackson St. 89.2
334 Mount St. Mary’s 89.0
335 Bryant 88.9
336 Tennessee Tech 88.9
337 SIU Edwardsville 88.8
338 San Jose St. 88.3
339 New Hampshire 88.1
340 Southern 88.0
341 Northwestern St. 86.8
342 Stetson 86.7
343 Incarnate Word 86.0
344 Kennesaw St. 85.4
345 Alabama A&M 85.0
346 Alcorn St. 84.4
347 Coppin St. 84.4
348 Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
349 Savannah St. 83.8
350 UNC Asheville 83.7
351 Chicago St. 82.1
352 Maryland Eastern Shore 81.9
353 Delaware St. 80.9

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

America East
Vermont 106.4
Stony Brook 101.2
Hartford 97.6
Maryland Baltimore Co. 96.1
UMass Lowell 95.7
Albany 92.7
Binghamton 90.1
Maine 90.1
New Hampshire 88.1
American Athletic
Houston 111.7
Cincinnati 111.5
Central Florida 109.3
Temple 107.1
Connecticut 105.7
SMU 105.6
Memphis 104.7
Wichita St. 103.6
Tulsa 102.4
South Florida 101.7
East Carolina 95.9
Tulane 93.5
Atlantic 10
Virginia Commonwealth 107.6
Dayton 107.0
Davidson 105.6
Saint Louis 104.6
Rhode Island 103.9
George Mason 103.4
St. Bonaventure 100.6
Massachusetts 100.4
Duquesne 99.9
Saint Joseph’s 99.8
Richmond 99.6
Fordham 97.0
La Salle 95.9
George Washington 94.9
Atlantic Coast
Duke 122.9
Virginia 121.6
North Carolina 117.3
Virginia Tech 116.0
North Carolina St. 113.0
Florida St. 112.4
Louisville 112.2
Syracuse 111.2
Clemson 109.8
Miami FL 107.6
Pittsburgh 106.6
Georgia Tech 106.6
Notre Dame 106.6
Boston College 103.7
Wake Forest 101.4
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb 108.9
Liberty 107.1
NJIT 99.3
North Florida 98.4
Florida Gulf Coast 94.0
Jacksonville 94.0
North Alabama 90.2
Stetson 86.7
Kennesaw St. 85.4
Big 12
Kansas 115.9
Texas Tech 115.4
Iowa St. 114.5
TCU 113.0
Oklahoma 111.9
Texas 110.9
Kansas St. 109.7
Baylor 108.9
West Virginia 106.8
Oklahoma St. 105.5
Big East
Villanova 112.8
Marquette 111.6
Butler 110.4
St. John’s 110.0
Creighton 109.4
Seton Hall 108.7
Providence 106.6
Xavier 106.0
Georgetown 105.6
DePaul 103.7
Big Sky
Montana 103.9
Weber St. 100.0
Northern Colorado 99.2
Idaho St. 95.1
Montana St. 94.2
Sacramento St. 94.1
Eastern Washington 93.8
Southern Utah 93.6
Portland St. 93.5
Northern Arizona 91.9
Idaho 90.3
Big South
Radford 102.3
Winthrop 100.4
Gardner Webb 100.1
Presbyterian 97.1
Campbell 97.0
High Point 97.0
Hampton 96.2
Charleston Southern 95.7
Longwood 94.2
USC Upstate 90.8
UNC Asheville 83.7
Big Ten
Michigan St. 120.2
Michigan 116.8
Nebraska 114.8
Purdue 114.5
Wisconsin 113.6
Maryland 112.4
Ohio St. 112.0
Iowa 111.7
Indiana 111.6
Northwestern 107.9
Penn St. 106.9
Minnesota 106.7
Illinois 105.5
Rutgers 103.4
Big West
UC Irvine 103.5
UC Santa Barbara 102.5
Cal St. Fullerton 98.6
Long Beach St. 98.4
Hawaii 98.2
UC Davis 95.3
UC Riverside 93.2
Cal St. Northridge 91.8
Cal Poly 91.0
Colonial Athletic
Hofstra 106.0
Northeastern 104.7
Charleston 103.4
William & Mary 97.4
Delaware 96.7
UNC Wilmington 96.1
James Madison 95.1
Drexel 94.9
Towson 93.8
Elon 89.8
Conference USA
Western Kentucky 104.5
Old Dominion 104.3
North Texas 103.5
Louisiana Tech 102.8
Marshall 102.2
Southern Miss 100.3
UAB 99.5
UTSA 97.4
Florida Int’l. 97.3
Florida Atlantic 96.7
UTEP 94.5
Middle Tennessee 93.4
Rice 92.9
Charlotte 92.8
Horizon
Northern Kentucky 104.6
Wright St. 100.8
IUPUI 98.5
Green Bay 97.8
Detroit 96.8
Illinois Chicago 96.7
Oakland 96.5
Milwaukee 93.6
Cleveland St. 93.1
Youngstown St. 92.8
Ivy
Yale 105.1
Penn 103.2
Harvard 102.9
Brown 102.5
Princeton 100.1
Dartmouth 98.5
Columbia 96.4
Cornell 95.3
Metro Atlantic
Rider 101.7
Iona 97.7
Canisius 95.5
Fairfield 95.3
Quinnipiac 95.3
Marist 95.0
Siena 94.4
Monmouth 94.0
Saint Peter’s 93.0
Niagara 92.7
Manhattan 89.7
Mid-American
Buffalo 113.4
Toledo 106.7
Ball St. 105.6
Akron 103.2
Northern Illinois 102.1
Bowling Green 101.6
Central Michigan 100.9
Kent St. 100.0
Eastern Michigan 99.6
Ohio 99.0
Miami OH 98.9
Western Michigan 97.5
Mideastern Athletic
Norfolk St. 94.2
North Carolina Central 93.8
North Carolina A&T 93.0
Bethune Cookman 92.0
Howard 91.5
Morgan St. 89.9
Florida A&M 89.2
South Carolina St. 89.2
Coppin St. 84.4
Savannah St. 83.8
Maryland Eastern Shore 81.9
Delaware St. 80.9
Missouri Valley
Loyola (Chi.) 105.4
Drake 102.8
Southern Illinois 101.8
Valparaiso 100.3
Evansville 99.5
Illinois St. 99.1
Indiana St. 98.6
Missouri St. 98.5
Northern Iowa 97.7
Bradley 96.7
Mountain West
Nevada 114.5
Utah St. 109.1
Fresno St. 107.9
Boise St. 104.2
San Diego St. 103.1
UNLV 100.8
New Mexico 99.3
Colorado St. 97.5
Air Force 95.2
Wyoming 92.2
San Jose St. 88.3
Northeast
Wagner 96.5
Fairleigh Dickinson 95.8
St. Francis PA 95.3
Sacred Heart 95.3
Long Island 95.1
Robert Morris 94.7
St. Francis (Bkln) 94.1
Central Connecticut 93.7
Mount St. Mary’s 89.0
Bryant 88.9
Ohio Valley
Murray St. 109.0
Belmont 105.1
Austin Peay 103.4
Jacksonville St. 103.4
Eastern Kentucky 96.3
Morehead St. 95.1
Tennessee St. 92.6
Eastern Illinois 92.5
Southeast Missouri St. 92.4
UT Martin 91.1
Tennessee Tech 88.9
SIU Edwardsville 88.8
Pac-12
Oregon 109.7
Washington 109.0
Arizona 108.7
Arizona St. 108.0
Oregon St. 106.8
UCLA 106.5
Colorado 105.7
USC 104.9
Stanford 102.3
Utah 102.2
Washington St. 98.2
California 94.8
Patriot
Bucknell 101.5
Lehigh 100.8
Colgate 99.6
Holy Cross 99.4
American 98.5
Boston University 97.1
Army 95.5
Navy 92.6
Loyola (MD) 92.5
Lafayette 92.3
Southeastern
Tennessee 119.1
Auburn 115.7
Kentucky 114.7
Florida 111.9
Mississippi St. 111.9
LSU 111.1
Mississippi 110.2
Alabama 108.0
Arkansas 107.4
South Carolina 105.5
Vanderbilt 105.3
Texas A&M 104.7
Georgia 104.6
Missouri 104.6
Southern
Wofford 110.4
East Tennessee St. 106.3
Furman 104.9
UNC Greensboro 104.3
Samford 99.9
Mercer 99.0
The Citadel 96.5
Chattanooga 94.2
Western Carolina 92.6
VMI 90.6
Southland
Abilene Christian 99.4
Sam Houston St. 96.8
Lamar 95.8
Stephen F. Austin 95.4
Houston Baptist 94.3
Central Arkansas 94.0
New Orleans 93.9
Nicholls St. 93.0
Texas A&M-CC 92.9
McNeese St. 92.2
Southeastern Louisiana 91.4
Northwestern St. 86.8
Incarnate Word 86.0
Southwestern Athletic
Texas Southern 98.2
Prairie View A&M 93.6
Grambling St. 92.8
Alabama St. 90.7
Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.0
Jackson St. 89.2
Southern 88.0
Alabama A&M 85.0
Alcorn St. 84.4
Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
Summit
South Dakota St. 106.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 100.0
Omaha 98.6
South Dakota 97.7
North Dakota St. 97.1
North Dakota 94.8
Oral Roberts 92.8
Western Illinois 92.6
Denver 92.1
Sun Belt
Georgia St. 104.6
Texas St. 104.1
Georgia Southern 103.5
Louisiana Monroe 101.5
Louisiana 100.8
Coastal Carolina 99.1
Troy 97.8
Appalachian St. 97.2
Little Rock 96.8
South Alabama 96.1
UT Arlington 95.8
Arkansas St. 94.3
West Coast
Gonzaga 120.6
Saint Mary’s 110.6
San Francisco 108.7
BYU 105.5
San Diego 104.8
Loyola Marymount 101.7
Pacific 99.2
Pepperdine 98.7
Santa Clara 97.0
Portland 90.9
Western Athletic
New Mexico St. 106.9
Grand Canyon 104.4
Utah Valley 102.9
Seattle 99.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 98.5
California Baptist 95.9
Missouri Kansas City 95.6
UT Rio Grande Valley 95.0
Chicago St. 82.1

 

PiRate Ratings Alphabetical

Rk Team PiRate
172 Abilene Christian 99.4
251 Air Force 95.2
126 Akron 103.2
56 Alabama 108.0
345 Alabama A&M 85.0
321 Alabama St. 90.7
300 Albany 92.7
346 Alcorn St. 84.4
190 American 98.5
209 Appalachian St. 97.2
54 Arizona 108.7
55 Arizona St. 108.0
61 Arkansas 107.4
327 Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.0
266 Arkansas St. 94.3
242 Army 95.5
10 Auburn 115.7
122 Austin Peay 103.4
84 Ball St. 105.6
51 Baylor 108.9
93 Belmont 105.1
312 Bethune Cookman 92.0
325 Binghamton 90.1
110 Boise St. 104.2
114 Boston College 103.7
212 Boston University 97.1
144 Bowling Green 101.6
223 Bradley 96.7
133 Brown 102.5
335 Bryant 88.9
145 Bucknell 101.5
18 Buffalo 113.4
38 Butler 110.4
90 BYU 105.5
318 Cal Poly 91.0
188 Cal St. Bakersfield 98.5
187 Cal St. Fullerton 98.6
314 Cal St. Northridge 91.8
260 California 94.8
234 California Baptist 95.9
214 Campbell 97.0
243 Canisius 95.5
276 Central Arkansas 94.0
281 Central Connecticut 93.7
46 Central Florida 109.3
149 Central Michigan 100.9
123 Charleston 103.4
239 Charleston Southern 95.7
296 Charlotte 92.8
267 Chattanooga 94.2
351 Chicago St. 82.1
33 Cincinnati 111.5
42 Clemson 109.8
289 Cleveland St. 93.1
180 Coastal Carolina 99.1
167 Colgate 99.6
81 Colorado 105.7
205 Colorado St. 97.5
227 Columbia 96.4
82 Connecticut 105.7
347 Coppin St. 84.4
245 Cornell 95.3
45 Creighton 109.4
189 Dartmouth 98.5
83 Davidson 105.6
64 Dayton 107.0
221 Delaware 96.7
353 Delaware St. 80.9
311 Denver 92.1
115 DePaul 103.7
219 Detroit 96.8
130 Drake 102.8
259 Drexel 94.9
1 Duke 122.9
164 Duquesne 99.9
235 East Carolina 95.9
77 East Tennessee St. 106.3
305 Eastern Illinois 92.5
228 Eastern Kentucky 96.3
169 Eastern Michigan 99.6
280 Eastern Washington 93.8
329 Elon 89.8
170 Evansville 99.5
248 Fairfield 95.3
238 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.8
26 Florida 111.9
331 Florida A&M 89.2
222 Florida Atlantic 96.7
273 Florida Gulf Coast 94.0
208 Florida Int’l. 97.3
23 Florida St. 112.4
216 Fordham 97.0
58 Fresno St. 107.9
95 Furman 104.9
160 Gardner Webb 100.1
120 George Mason 103.4
258 George Washington 94.9
85 Georgetown 105.6
102 Georgia 104.6
118 Georgia Southern 103.5
105 Georgia St. 104.6
72 Georgia Tech 106.6
3 Gonzaga 120.6
295 Grambling St. 92.8
107 Grand Canyon 104.4
198 Green Bay 97.8
229 Hampton 96.2
203 Hartford 97.6
128 Harvard 102.9
197 Hawaii 98.2
215 High Point 97.0
80 Hofstra 106.0
173 Holy Cross 99.4
30 Houston 111.7
265 Houston Baptist 94.3
315 Howard 91.5
323 Idaho 90.3
253 Idaho St. 95.1
88 Illinois 105.5
220 Illinois Chicago 96.7
179 Illinois St. 99.1
343 Incarnate Word 86.0
31 Indiana 111.6
185 Indiana St. 98.6
201 Iona 97.7
29 Iowa 111.7
15 Iowa St. 114.5
192 IUPUI 98.5
333 Jackson St. 89.2
274 Jacksonville 94.0
124 Jacksonville St. 103.4
254 James Madison 95.1
9 Kansas 115.9
44 Kansas St. 109.7
344 Kennesaw St. 85.4
161 Kent St. 100.0
13 Kentucky 114.7
233 La Salle 95.9
308 Lafayette 92.3
237 Lamar 95.8
152 Lehigh 100.8
63 Liberty 107.1
50 Lipscomb 108.9
217 Little Rock 96.8
193 Long Beach St. 98.4
255 Long Island 95.1
268 Longwood 94.2
151 Louisiana 100.8
146 Louisiana Monroe 101.5
131 Louisiana Tech 102.8
24 Louisville 112.2
91 Loyola (Chi.) 105.4
306 Loyola (MD) 92.5
143 Loyola Marymount 101.7
35 LSU 111.1
326 Maine 90.1
330 Manhattan 89.7
257 Marist 95.0
32 Marquette 111.6
137 Marshall 102.2
22 Maryland 112.4
230 Maryland Baltimore Co. 96.1
352 Maryland Eastern Shore 81.9
155 Massachusetts 100.4
310 McNeese St. 92.2
98 Memphis 104.7
182 Mercer 99.0
60 Miami FL 107.6
183 Miami OH 98.9
7 Michigan 116.8
4 Michigan St. 120.2
287 Middle Tennessee 93.4
282 Milwaukee 93.6
69 Minnesota 106.7
40 Mississippi 110.2
28 Mississippi St. 111.9
348 Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
104 Missouri 104.6
241 Missouri Kansas City 95.6
191 Missouri St. 98.5
275 Monmouth 94.0
112 Montana 103.9
270 Montana St. 94.2
252 Morehead St. 95.1
328 Morgan St. 89.9
334 Mount St. Mary’s 89.0
49 Murray St. 109.0
301 Navy 92.6
12 Nebraska 114.8
16 Nevada 114.5
339 New Hampshire 88.1
176 New Mexico 99.3
65 New Mexico St. 106.9
277 New Orleans 93.9
299 Niagara 92.7
290 Nicholls St. 93.0
174 NJIT 99.3
269 Norfolk St. 94.2
324 North Alabama 90.2
6 North Carolina 117.3
292 North Carolina A&T 93.0
278 North Carolina Central 93.8
19 North Carolina St. 113.0
261 North Dakota 94.8
211 North Dakota St. 97.1
194 North Florida 98.4
119 North Texas 103.5
100 Northeastern 104.7
313 Northern Arizona 91.9
177 Northern Colorado 99.2
139 Northern Illinois 102.1
200 Northern Iowa 97.7
103 Northern Kentucky 104.6
57 Northwestern 107.9
341 Northwestern St. 86.8
73 Notre Dame 106.6
225 Oakland 96.5
181 Ohio 99.0
25 Ohio St. 112.0
27 Oklahoma 111.9
87 Oklahoma St. 105.5
108 Old Dominion 104.3
186 Omaha 98.6
297 Oral Roberts 92.8
43 Oregon 109.7
68 Oregon St. 106.8
178 Pacific 99.2
125 Penn 103.2
66 Penn St. 106.9
184 Pepperdine 98.7
71 Pittsburgh 106.6
319 Portland 90.9
285 Portland St. 93.5
283 Prairie View A&M 93.6
210 Presbyterian 97.1
159 Princeton 100.1
74 Providence 106.6
14 Purdue 114.5
163 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.0
249 Quinnipiac 95.3
136 Radford 102.3
113 Rhode Island 103.9
293 Rice 92.9
168 Richmond 99.6
142 Rider 101.7
262 Robert Morris 94.7
121 Rutgers 103.4
271 Sacramento St. 94.1
247 Sacred Heart 95.3
166 Saint Joseph’s 99.8
101 Saint Louis 104.6
37 Saint Mary’s 110.6
291 Saint Peter’s 93.0
218 Sam Houston St. 96.8
165 Samford 99.9
97 San Diego 104.8
127 San Diego St. 103.1
53 San Francisco 108.7
338 San Jose St. 88.3
213 Santa Clara 97.0
349 Savannah St. 83.8
175 Seattle 99.3
52 Seton Hall 108.7
264 Siena 94.4
337 SIU Edwardsville 88.8
86 SMU 105.6
231 South Alabama 96.1
89 South Carolina 105.5
332 South Carolina St. 89.2
202 South Dakota 97.7
78 South Dakota St. 106.1
141 South Florida 101.7
307 Southeast Missouri St. 92.4
316 Southeastern Louisiana 91.4
340 Southern 88.0
140 Southern Illinois 101.8
157 Southern Miss 100.3
284 Southern Utah 93.6
154 St. Bonaventure 100.6
272 St. Francis (Bkln) 94.1
246 St. Francis PA 95.3
41 St. John’s 110.0
135 Stanford 102.3
244 Stephen F. Austin 95.4
342 Stetson 86.7
148 Stony Brook 101.2
34 Syracuse 111.2
20 TCU 113.0
62 Temple 107.1
5 Tennessee 119.1
302 Tennessee St. 92.6
336 Tennessee Tech 88.9
36 Texas 110.9
99 Texas A&M 104.7
294 Texas A&M-CC 92.9
195 Texas Southern 98.2
111 Texas St. 104.1
11 Texas Tech 115.4
224 The Citadel 96.5
70 Toledo 106.7
279 Towson 93.8
199 Troy 97.8
286 Tulane 93.5
134 Tulsa 102.4
171 UAB 99.5
250 UC Davis 95.3
117 UC Irvine 103.5
288 UC Riverside 93.2
132 UC Santa Barbara 102.5
75 UCLA 106.5
240 UMass Lowell 95.7
350 UNC Asheville 83.7
109 UNC Greensboro 104.3
232 UNC Wilmington 96.1
150 UNLV 100.8
96 USC 104.9
320 USC Upstate 90.8
236 UT Arlington 95.8
317 UT Martin 91.1
256 UT Rio Grande Valley 95.0
138 Utah 102.2
47 Utah St. 109.1
129 Utah Valley 102.9
263 UTEP 94.5
206 UTSA 97.4
158 Valparaiso 100.3
92 Vanderbilt 105.3
76 Vermont 106.4
21 Villanova 112.8
2 Virginia 121.6
59 Virginia Commonwealth 107.6
8 Virginia Tech 116.0
322 VMI 90.6
226 Wagner 96.5
147 Wake Forest 101.4
48 Washington 109.0
196 Washington St. 98.2
162 Weber St. 100.0
67 West Virginia 106.8
303 Western Carolina 92.6
304 Western Illinois 92.6
106 Western Kentucky 104.5
204 Western Michigan 97.5
116 Wichita St. 103.6
207 William & Mary 97.4
156 Winthrop 100.4
17 Wisconsin 113.6
39 Wofford 110.4
153 Wright St. 100.8
309 Wyoming 92.2
79 Xavier 106.0
94 Yale 105.1
298 Youngstown St. 92.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, January 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:18 am

January 18, 2019

Seed List

Seed Team Conf.
1 Virginia ACC
1 Michigan Big Ten
1 Tennessee SEC
1 Duke ACC
2 Gonzaga WCC
2 Michigan St. Big Ten
2 Houston AAC
2 Texas Tech Big 12
3 Virginia Tech ACC
3 Kentucky SEC
3 Nebraska Big Ten
3 Kansas Big 12
4 North Carolina ACC
4 Buffalo MAC
4 LSU SEC
4 Iowa St. Big 12
5 Purdue Big Ten
5 Auburn SEC
5 Louisville ACC
5 Marquette Big East
6 Maryland Big Ten
6 Wisconsin Big Ten
6 Nevada MWC
6 Villanova Big East
7 Iowa Big Ten
7 TCU Big 12
7 Oklahoma Big 12
7 Ole Miss SEC
8 Wofford SoCon
8 Indiana Big Ten
8 NC State ACC
8 Mississippi St. SEC
9 Florida St. ACC
9 St. John’s (NY) Big East
9 Cincinnati AAC
9 Ohio St. Big Ten
10 Kansas St. Big 12
10 UCF AAC
10 Utah St. MWC
10 Washington Pac-12
11 Florida SEC
11 Murray St. OVC
11 Liberty ASUN
11 Texas Big 12
12 Temple AAC
12 San Francisco WCC
12 Butler Big East
12 Seton Hall Big East
12 Arizona Pac-12
12 VCU Atlantic 10
13 Hofstra CAA
13 North Texas C-USA
13 Yale Ivy League
13 New Mexico St. WAC
14 Radford Big South
14 Georgia St. Sun Belt
14 South Dakota St. Summit League
14 Loyola Chicago MVC
15 Northern Ky. Horizon
15 Montana Big Sky
15 Stony Brook America East
15 UC Irvine Big West
16 Lehigh Patriot
16 Rider MAAC
16 Abilene Christian Southland
16 Texas Southern SWAC
16 Wagner NEC
16 N.C. A&T MEAC

Last Four In

San Francisco WCC
Butler Big East
Seton Hall Big East
Arizona Pac-12

Because Butler and Seton Hall are in the same conference, they cannot meet in the First Four Game in Dayton.  Thus, the expected matchups would be San Francisco vs. Seton Hall and Butler vs. Arizona

 

Last 4 Byes

Washington Pac-12
Florida SEC
Texas Big 12
Temple AAC

 

First 4 OUT

Syracuse ACC
Pittsburgh ACC
Clemson ACC
Alabama SEC

 

Next 4 OUT

Saint Mary’s (CA) WCC
Northwestern Big Ten
Baylor Big 12
Minnesota Big Ten

 

Weakest 4 Automatic Seeds

(#16 seeds headed to Dayton)

Abilene Christian Southland
Texas Southern SWAC
Wagner NEC
N.C. A&T MEAC

 

Multiple Bid Leagues

9 Big Ten
7 Atlantic Coast
7 Big 12
7 Southeastern
5 Big East
4 American
2 Mountain West
2 Pac-12
2 West Coast

 

Our Method:  We use the NCAA’s official Net Ratings to find the 68 teams that the criteria indicates should be in the field and then seed these teams according to how the criteria rates them within the group.

As the season continues, we will begin to handicap these ratings to account for the human equation by trying to estimate each member of the Selection Committee based on where he or she is coming from.  This might bring a little political aspect into the criteria, since the Committee members will actually vote on the teams and only use the criteria as their guidelines.  We expect there to be bias in favor of major conferences.  Also, there are other factors that the Committee will have as a reference, such as winning percentage, strength of schedule, and offensive and defensive efficiency.

Once conference tournament play begins and the low and mid major automatic bids become known, we will include all the factors in our final week of seedings.  Then, on the morning of Selection Sunday, we will have our most extensive final look at what we believe the Committee will submit.

Our selections here are never our own beliefs.  The goal is to try to predict what the 10 members in the Selection Room will decide, and that means trying to predict their inaccuracies.

NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee
Member Position
(Chairman) Bernard Muir Stanford AD
Mitch Barnhart Kentucky AD
Tom Burnett Southland Conf. Commissioner
Janet Cone UNC Asheville AD
Bernadette McGlade Atlantic 10 Conf. Commissioner
Michael O’Brien Toledo AD
Jim Phillips Northwestern AD
Chris Reynolds Bradley AD (VP of Athletics)
Craig Thompson Mountain West Conf. Commissioner
Kevin White Duke AD

 

 

 

 

November 5, 2018

Final Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Pardon our brevity today, but we do have other tasks at hands on the PiRate ship.  This is our final election eve analytical look at the 2018 Mid-term Election races.

U.S. Senate

We were tempted to make one slight change today based on the final reliable polling coming from a couple of honest pollsters.  However, in these states, Early Voting has already seen large percentages of voters deciding.  We have to use the polls at the time of Early Voting, so we did not move the needle at all.

For three weeks, we have been split between 53-47 and 54-46 in favor of the Republicans in the Senate.  Our Over/Under spread would be 53 1/2.

U.S. House of Representatives

This could take up hours more than we have to explain, and if you are reading this 14 hours before the polls open on the East Coast, you only have time for a couple of paragraphs.

Based on our models of handicapping the polls based on their recent biases from the previous election, we believe that the Democrats are assured of picking up 13 seats as their floor and 34 seats as their ceiling.  They currently own 193 seats, so this bumps their minimum in the next Congress to 206 and a maximum of 227.  It takes 218 to get a majority.

We believe that there are about 26 seats remaining that are true tossup races.  Of the 26 tossups, the Democrats need to win 12 of the races to gain control.  If you factor in that the Democrats polled a little better three weeks ago when some states commenced with early voting, we tend to tilt the needle of toss-up races in their favor.  If we had to wager on an over/under number for the number of Democrats in the next Congress, we’d place that number at 219.5, since our data shows the Democrats taking control of the House by a margin of 219 to 216 or 220 to 215.

Gubernatorial Races

We must admit that we did not perform any additional data mining on the governor’s races.  We will stick with our over/under number of 26.5 in favor of the Republicans, as our data is split between 26-24 and 27-23 in favor of the GOP.

 

Our plea with our incredible brothers and sisters of the greatest nation in the world.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, please act like a good and decent human being and accept the results without resulting to violence.  Our nation received the most incredible gift from our Founding Fathers.

There is a fantastic quote attributable to Benjamin Franklin in 1787.  When Franklin was leaving Independence Hall following long hours of discussion at the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Franklin as he left the hall whether our new nation would be a Republic or a Monarchy.

Franklin’s genius reply was, “A Republic if you can keep it.”

My fellow friends and countrymen, we are doing our worst not to keep it.  I lived through the 1968 through 1972 election cycle.  I never believed the nation could become more divided then than ever again in my lifetime.  We are approaching this four year black eye.  Let’s stop it before it can surpass those four years.

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

October 19, 2018

An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Filed under: News & Views — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:37 am

The PiRate Ratings consist of a group of mathematical nerds that love to look at ratings of all types.  Sports ratings dominate about 95% of what we publish, but we are big-time followers of the political scene, as our founder was once a journalist and has worked as an official in past elections.

We do not have our own polling data.  However, we handicap other polls based on past accuracy and whether the polls show bias one way or another.  Then, we go use the various dates of each handicapped poll and use linear regression analysis to come up with a prediction.

This takes a lot of time to search for the polls we believe are the most accurate.  Very few were all that accurate in 2016, but there were some major polling efforts that showed President Trump leading the electoral vote count in the final days before the election.

Today, we look at the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and the Gubernatorial Races.  The result is a split decision for 2019.

The United States Senate

Safe Seats

21 of the 35 seats are considered safe, where the candidate in the lead today has a greater than 95% chance of winning in November.

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)
Feinstein is like a Supreme Court Justice in the Golden State. She will hold this seat for life, or until she retires. This easily stays a safe seat for the Democrats.

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)
Connecticut has become much bluer in the last 15 years, and Murphy will win this seat with token opposition to retain it for the Democrats.

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)
Carper is almost as safe as if he were running unopposed. This seat is retained by the Democrats.

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)
The same thing about Carper applies here. Hirano cruises to an easy victory to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats, so this seat in essence is retained by the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)
Cardin wins a third term in a safe race to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)
Her chances of becoming the next President are most likely gone now, but Warren should retain this seat for the Democrats by a healthy margin.

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)
This seat remains Democrat with a safe win for Stabenow.

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Klobuchar should win re-election by a landslide of more than 20% to retain this seat for the Democrats

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D)
This race was never all that close, and Smith has maintained a double-digit lead to retain this seat for the Democrats.

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)
Wicker may score the largest GOP landslide victory in the 2018 elections to retain this seat for the Republicans

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)
Fischer has a large lead and will win a second term in the Cornhusker State and retain this seat for the Republicans.

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)
Like Fischer, Heinrich easily wins re-election to a second term and retains this seat for the Democrats

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
This could be the largest landslide victory for the party of Jefferson and Jackson. Gillibrand will then have to address the rumors about whether or not she will launch a Presidentail campaign for the 2020 election. The Democrats retain this seat.

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)
This race was never close, and the Democrats will easily retain it in a landslide.

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
It’s a third term for Whitehouse, and the Democrats retain this seat.

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)
The former GOP Presidential candidate will win by 30+% to retain this seat for the Republicans.

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats and will win re-election by a large landslide. His announcement for the 2020 Presidential race should come sometime in the Spring or early Summer of 2019.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)
The former Vice-presidential candidate and running mate for Hillary Clinton might become a Presidential contender in 2020, but for now, he retains this seat for the Democrats.

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)
Cantwell wins for the fourth time and could stay in this seat for two or three more terms. She won by less than 1% in 2000, by 17% in 2006, and by 20+% in 2012, and she could win by 20+% again this time. The Democrats keep this seat.

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)
Barrasso should win this race by 50%, to safely retain this seat for the Republicans.

 

Contested Seats

Arizona
Martha McSally (R) 52.5
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47.5
Arizona stays Republican after negative ads against Sinema, using her own voice, are quite effective.

Florida
Bill Nelson (D) 50.3
Rick Scott (R) 49.7
Florida race is too close to call at this point, but if the election were today, Nelson would retain this seat for the Democrats.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D) 48.2
Mike Braun (R) 47.4
Lucy Brenton (L) 4.4
This race is trending toward Donnelly in the most recent polls, and the Democrats look like they will retain this seat unless something drastic changes the race in the final two weeks.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 37.2
Mike Espy (D) 34.7
Chris McDaniel (R) 24.0
Toby Bartee (D) 4.1
It’s hard to see how Mississippi would flip, but Espy is probably the Democrats’ best possible candidate in the Magnolia State. This race is too close to call, but if the general election were held today, Hyde-Smith would win to keep this seat Republican.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R) 51.5
Claire McCaskill (D) 48.5
This race now looks like it is trending to Hawley after Project Veritas releases damaging evidence in McCaskill’s own words on hiding her actual stance on gun control with the quote that “People just can’t know that.” This state will flip from Democrat to Republican.

Montana
Jon Tester (D) 51.1
Matt Rosendale (R) 48.9
Tester holds on to a narrow lead, but the President has been in Big Sky Country four times in this election cycle, and this race has moved from leaning Democrat to narrowly Democrat. It is too close to call officially, but if the election were today, Tester would squeak by with re-election and keep this seat Democrat.

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D) 53.8
Bob Hugin (R) 46.2
This seat is close to safe for a Menendez re-election, and the Democrats retain it.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R) 53.7
Jacky Rosen (D) 46.3
This race was closer earlier in the campaign cycle, but Heller has a somewhat comfortable lead and should retain this seat for the Republicans.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R) 55.9
Heidi Heitkamp (D) 44.1
This seat is almost assured of flipping from Democrat to Republican. Heitkamp had the numbers working against her in a red state that went for Trump.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D) 57.6
Lou Barletta (R) 42.4
This race has opened up by a healthy enough margin to guarantee it for Casey and retain the seat for the Democrats.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R) 53.8
Phil Bredesen (D) 46.2
In another case where Project Veritas produced damning evidence that Bredesen had lied about his support for Justice Kavanaugh, this race has moved by several points in favor of Blackburn. It is not decided yet, as Tennessee has never elected a female to statewide office, and in past years, females that held the lead in polls lost on election day. It is a tossup state, but if the election were held today, the Republicans would narrowly hold onto this seat.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R) 54.1
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45.9
In a state where gun ownership is above the national average, O’Rourke’s statement that Texas should lead the nation conversation for gun control can be considered a gaffe that will cost him a couple of points and make this race close to safe for Cruz to win re-election and retain this seat for the Republicans.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D) 54.6
Patrick Morrisey (R) 45.4
Joe Manchin showed his intelligence in a very red state when he voted for Justice Kavanaugh. He will win by close to double digits and retain this seat for the Democrats. Manchin considered retiring, and he later would not make a comment on the possibility of switching parties. Manchin has tried to encourage other Democrats to work with the President, as in his opinion this is how his party can add to its numbers. His words are falling on deaf ears.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D) 54.7
Leah Vukmir (R) 45.3
Baldwin has excellent organization in the Badger State, and she should win this race without much concern that the GOP can sneak up on election day like the state did for the President. The Democrats retain this seat.

 

The 65 Senators not up for re-election
Republicans 42
Democrats 23

There are 35 seats up for grabs this year due to two special elections.
Safe for Democrats 21
Safe for Republicans 5

Subtotal
Republicans 47
Democrats 44

*** Nine states will decide the balance of power in the US Senate. ***
Three lean to the Democrats today
Florida
Indiana
Montana

Six lean to the Republicans today
Arizona
Mississippi Special Election
Missouri
Nevada
North Dakota
Tennessee

The current prediction is:
Republicans 53
Democrats 47

 

The United States House of Representatives

Currently
Republicans 235
Democrats 193

2018 Safe seats (411)
Democrats 212
Republicans 199

2018 Contested Seats (27)

Forecasting the 27 races individually is more than our tiny group can handle.  We have used our regression analysis to look at net gains and net losses in the polls.  It is not as accurate as looking at each race individually, but we do prefer to get at least 4 hours of sleep a night.

If the election were held today
Democrats 222
Republicans 216

 

Gubernatorial Races if the election were held today
Republicans 27
Democrats 23

 

So, who will be the big winner in November?  It’s hard to say, but if we do end up with a split decision, the biggest winners may be all the political bloggers and online political sites that will have a field day cramming their opinions down the country’s throats.

The only political commentary we will make is this: Many people fail to understand that the elected official that most affects his or her life is the councilman or alderman in his or her neighborhood.  Yet, history shows that these elections receive the lowest turnout of all races.

Please vote in your local elections wherever you live and for whomever you believe will best represent your views and opinions and who best will respond to any redresses you might have.  In most cases, you can talk personally with your councilman or alderman.  Most of us can never speak directly with any other elected official, other than one or two seconds in a handshake line during an election cycle.

We live in interesting times!

February 26, 2018

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for February 26, 2018 & Conference Tourneys

A lot has changed in the week since the Gurus released their bracketology seedings.  However, as of this moment, the Gurus are sticking with normalcy.  Whereas some teams might eventually be declared ineligible for the NCAA Tournament, until it happens, the Gurus are going to keep seeding the teams where their resumes show they should be seeded.  To be more precise, the Gurus are not actually seeding the teams where THEY think they should be seed, but instead they are seeding the teams where they believe THE SELECTION COMMITTEE will seed the teams.  Please make a note of this:  The Gurus are not to blame if your favorite team (hear that Nebraska fans) is not included in the field.  It is plain and simple–The Committee has a set of criteria to select its teams and place them in proper seed lines.  Where a team finishes in its conference and conference record is not even in the criteria.  So, a Cornhusker team that is 13-5 in the Big Ten and tied for fourth with Michigan is not even among the last six teams in the Dance.  Nebraska only scheduled two non-conference opponents this year that could have helped their resume.  Losing at Creighton and losing at home to Kansas is not enough to put the Cornhuskers on the Bubble.  The KU loss was by a single point, but a miss is as good as a mile.  The only win that really helps them is the home win over Michigan.  Thus, if you are a Cornhusker fan, you better hope your team is still playing this Sunday, which would be the Big Ten Championship Game.  It will take wins over Michigan and Michigan State to even put Nebraska on the Bubble, and if Nebraska makes it to the title game without facing both Michigan teams, then they must win the automatic bid with no chance to make the field any other way.  So, Nebraska fans must cheer for Michigan to win Thursday and Michigan State to win Friday, just so your team can have a chance to pick up two Quadrant One wins.

A couple of teams made major moves forward in the Bracketology Gurus seed line this week.  Tennessee moved up to the 3-line with a win over Florida and another at Ole Miss.  The Volunteers now have a chance to win the SEC regular season championship if Auburn falters and loses its final two games (at Arkansas and vs. South Carolina), while the Vols win at Mississippi State and at home against Georgia.  Auburn has lost three of its last six games and has been moderately affected by the injury loss of Anfernee McLemore, who was one of the Tigers’ few talented big men.

Mississippi State is in a similar boat as Nebraska, but the Bulldogs are in better shape.  The Bulldogs are in a third place tie in the SEC and have won 21 games overall, but unless they upset Tennessee in Starkville and then close with a win at LSU, they will have to make it to the Championship Game of the SEC Tournament to have a chance.  Even if MSU finishes with two wins, at 11-7/23-8, they will still need to do some damage in the SEC Tournament.

In the Pac-12, UCLA has collapsed, and the Bruins are now on the outside, looking in.  Utah failed to win a crucial home game against USC after knocking UCLA to the Bubble.  Washington split on the road in the Bay Area, losing at Stanford and winning at Cal, but the Huskies have that win over Kansas at Phog Allen, plus wins against Arizona, Arizona State, and USC, so they are in contention for a bid.  USC made a slight upward move with road wins over Colorado and Utah, giving the Trojans four consecutive victories.  Arizona, most likely with Lorenzo Romar as interim head coach, closes at home with Stanford and Cal, so the Wildcats are likely to edge the Trojans for the top seed in the Pac-12 Tournament, but this is a team that has been wounded and may falter early.

In the ACC, North Carolina State has now won four consecutive games to move to 10-6 in the league.  The Wolf Pack have two winnable games to close out the season, and they could sneak up to the third seed in the ACC Tournament if they get to 12-6.  First year coach Kevin Keatts, who worked the same magic at UNC-Wilmington may be the best overall coach in college basketball, and he should compete with Tony Bennett for ACC COY and National COY.

In the Big East, Butler moved up thanks to home wins over Providence and Creighton, while Seton Hall won twice to earn a three-game winning streak after suffering a four-game losing streak prior.  After a 1-4 slide in conference play, Creighton rebounded with a big win over Villanova.

Middle Tennesse State and Western Kentucky continued winning big in CUSA play, and the two mid-major powers and arch-rivals could be headed to a momentous CUSA Tournament Championship Game where only the winner will be safely in the Dance.  Old Dominion and Marshall cannot be overlooked, but it would be ashamed if neither Middle or Western get in the tournament.  Both have Sweet 16 talent.

Out West, Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Nevada, and New Mexico State continued to win, and the first three on this list are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  NMSU might still have an outside chance to get in if they lost in the WAC Tournament, but the Aggies most likely must win the WAC automatic bid.  Grand Canyon, Utah Valley, and Seattle all have enough talent to pull off an upset.

Here is this week’s Bracket Gurus Bracketology Report

Seed Team Conference
1 Villanova B-East
1 Virginia ACC
1 Xavier B-East
1 Kansas B12
2 Duke ACC
2 Auburn SEC
2 North Carolina ACC
2 Michigan St. BTen
3 Purdue BTen
3 Cincinnati AAC
3 Tennessee SEC
3 Texas Tech B12
4 Wichita St. AAC
4 Clemson ACC
4 West Virginia B12
4 Arizona Pac12
5 Ohio St. BTen
5 Kentucky SEC
5 Gonzaga WCC
5 Rhode Island A-10
6 Michigan BTen
6 Houston AAC
6 Seton Hall B-East
6 TCU B12
7 Nevada MWC
7 Texas A&M SEC
7 Arkansas SEC
7 Florida SEC
8 Oklahoma B12
8 Arizona St. Pac12
8 Butler B-East
8 Creighton B-East
9 Florida St. ACC
9 Alabama SEC
9 Missouri SEC
9 Miami (Fla.) ACC
10 North Carolina St. ACC
10 Providence B-East
10 Virginia Tech ACC
10 Saint Mary’s WCC
11 St. Bonaventure A-10
11 Texas B12
11 Middle Tennessee CUSA
11 New Mexico St. WAC
12 Kansas St. B12
12 USC Pac12
12 Washington Pac12
12 Louisville ACC
12 Loyola (Chi.) MVC
12 UL-Lafayette SBC
13 Buffalo MAC
13 South Dakota St. Summ
13 Vermont A-East
13 Murray St. OVC
14 UNC-Greensboro Socon
14 College of Charleston CAA
14 Rider MAAC
14 Bucknell Pat
15 Montana B-Sky
15 UC-Davis B-West
15 Northern Kentucky Horiz
15 Wagner NEC
16 Penn Ivy
16 UNC-Asheville B-Sth
16 Nicholls St. SLC
16 Florida Gulf Coast A-Sun
16 Bethune-Cookman MEAC
16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff SWAC

 

Top 6 Out  Conf.
Baylor B12
UCLA Pac12
Syracuse ACC
Utah Pac12
Mississippi St. SEC
Marquette B-East

 

Last 10 Byes (highest to lowest)
Florida St.
Alabama
Missouri
Miami (Fla.)
North Carolina St.
Providence
Virginia Tech
Saint Mary’s
St. Bonaventure
Texas

 

First Four Round
Kansas St. vs. Washington
USC vs. Louisville
 
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Bethune-Cookman
Nicholls St. vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

 

Conference Tournament Action Tips Off Tonight

Championship Fortnight begins tonight, as the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament begins on campus sites.  The A-Sun holds its tournament on the home floors of the higher seeds, so tonight’s quarterfinal round finds four games playing simultaneously.  ESPN3 will carry all four games.

Here is the bracket and schedule for the A-Sun.

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 26
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #8 USC Upstate ESPN3
7:30 PM #4 NJIT #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #7 Stetson ESPN3
7:00 PM #3 Jacksonville #6 Kennesaw St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA FGCU/USCU NJIT/N.Fla. ESPN3
TBA Lipsc./Stetson Jville/Kenn ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
3:00 PM Higher Remaining Seed Lower Remaining Seed ESPN

Florida Gulf Coast (12-2/21-10) is the sexy team in this league, but the Lipscomb Bisons (10-4/20-9) are the hot team.  Lipscomb closed out the regular season on a five-game winning streak, which included a win at FGCU.  Lipscomb’s non-conference schedule was considerably stronger than FGCU, so the Bisons might be able to move up to a 15-seed if they win the automatic bid, while the Eagles and anybody else in the league would be a 16-seed.  If somebody other than the top two wins the tournament, they can book reservations in Dayton for a First Four game.

Eight other leagues begin their conference tournaments between today and Friday.  Here is a look at the brackets and schedules for these conferences.

Big South Conference Tournament
1st Round & Championship Game at Higher Seeds
Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 27
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #7 High Point #10 Longwood BSN
7:00 PM #8 Charleston Southern #9 Presbyterian BSN
BSN TV at http://bigsouthsports.com    

 

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #2 Radford High Point or Longwood ESPN3
3:30 PM #3 Winthrop #6 Gardner-Webb ESPN3
7:00 PM #1 UNC-Asheville Presbyterian or Chas Sou. ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Campbell #5 Liberty ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Rad/HP/Longwood Winthrop/G-Webb ESPN3
8:30 PM UNCA/Presby/Chas Sou Campbell or Liberty ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
1:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN

 

Big Ten Conference Tournament
New York City
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 28
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM #12 Iowa #13 Illinois Big Ten
7:45 PM #11 Minnesota #14 Rutgers Big Ten
       
Second Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 Maryland #9 Wisconsin Big Ten
2:15 PM #5 Michigan Iowa or Illinois Big Ten
6:30 PM #7 Penn St. #10 Northwestern Big Ten
8:45 PM #6 Indiana Minn. or Rutgers Big Ten
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Michigan St. Mary or Wisc Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 Nebraska Mich/Iowa/Ill Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 Ohio St. PSU or N’Western Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 Purdue Ind/Minn/Rutg Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM MSU/Mary/Wisc Neb/Mich/Iowa/Ill CBS
4:30 PM OSU/Purd/NW Purd/Ind/Minn/Rutg CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 Monmouth #9 St. Peter’s ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 Quinnipiac #10 Siena ESPN3
10:00 PM #6 Fairfield #11 Marist ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Rider Monmouth or St. Peter’s ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 Canisius Quinn. or Siena ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #3 Niagara Fair. or Marist ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Iona #5 Manhattan ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Rider/Monm/St. P Iona or Manhattan ESPN3
9:30 PM Can/Quinn/Siena Niag/Fair/Marist ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 Evansville #9 Northern Iowa ESPN3
8:30 PM #7 Missouri St. #10 Valparaiso ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Loyola (Chi.) Evansville or UNI ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Drake #5 Bradley ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 Southern Illinois MSU or Valpo ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Illinois St. #6 Indiana St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM Loyola/Evans/UNI Drake or Bradley CBSSN
5:00 PM SIU/MSU/Valpo Ill St. or Ind St. CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
All Games at Higher Seed
Top 8 Teams Qualify and Tournament Re-seeds after Quarterfinals
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 28
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Wagner #8 Central Connecticut NEC *
7:00 PM #2 Mount St. Mary’s #7 Robert Morris NEC *
7:00 PM #3 St. Francis (PA) #6 Fairleigh-Dickinson NEC *
7:00 PM #4 Long Island #5 St. Francis (Bkn) NEC *
* NEC Front Row at http://necfrontrow.com/
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Home Team Visitors TV
12:00 PM Highest Remaining Lowest Remaining ESPN3
2:00 PM 2nd Highest 3rd Highest ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN2

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Evansville, IN
Top 8 Teams Qualify, Southeast Missouri ineligible due to low APR Scores
All Times CST
       
First Round–February 28
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #5 Tennessee Tech #8 SIU-Edwardsville OVC
9:00 PM #6 Tennessee St. #7 Eastern Illinois OVC
OVC Network at http://www.ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch
       
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 Jacksonville St. Tenn Tech or SIU-E OVC
9:00 PM #3 Austin Peay TSU or EIU OVC
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Murray St. JSU/TTU/SIU-E ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Belmont APSU/TSU/EIU ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 27
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #7 Lafayette #10 American Stadium
7:00 PM #8 Loyola (MD) #9 Army Stadium
       
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Bucknell Loyola or Army Stadium
7:00 PM #4 Lehigh #5 Boston U Stadium
7:00 PM #2 Colgate Lafayette or American Stadium
7:00 PM #3 Navy #6 Holy Cross Stadium
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
12/2 Bucknell/Loyola/Army Lehigh or Boston U CBSSN
12/2 Colgate/Lafayette/American Navy or Holy Cross CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
7:30 PM     CBSSN

 

Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 The Citadel #9 VMI ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 Samford #10 Chattanooga ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 UNC-Greensboro Citadel or VMI ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Mercer #5 Wofford ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 East Tennessee St. Samford or Chatt. ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Furman #6 Western Carolina ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM UNCG/Cit/VMI Mercer or Wofford ESPN3
6:30 PM ETSU/Sam/Chatt Furman or WCU ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM     ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 Loyola Marymount #9 Portland NBCSN
8:00 PM #7 Santa Clara #10 Pepperdine NBCSN
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #3 BYU #6 San Diego NBCSN
3:00 PM #4 San Francisco #5 Pacific NBCSN
7:00 PM #1 Gonzaga LMU or Portland ESPN2
9:00 PM #2 Saint Mary’s Santa Clara or Pepperdine ESPN2
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Gonz/LMU/Portland USF or Pacific ESPN
8:00 PM SMU/SCU/Pepperdine BYU or USD ESPN2
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM     ESPN

All conference tournament brackets will be updated the morning after any conference games have been played. Check back here for up-to-date schedules and tip times.

 

 

 

 

 

February 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for February 16-18, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:25 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Spreads For Multi-Bid Conferences and Top Mid & Low Majors

Friday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
St. Bonaventure Rhode Island 0.6
Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Central Florida SMU -0.7
Tulane Memphis 2.7
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 6.2
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech -5.1
Boston College Notre Dame -0.9
Wake Forest North Carolina St. 0.3
Louisville North Carolina 0.0
Oklahoma Texas 5.7
Kansas St. Iowa St. 7.5
Kansas West Virginia 3.9
Baylor Texas Tech -1.1
TCU Oklahoma St. 8.3
Butler Providence 8.0
Xavier Villanova -4.0
Creighton Marquette 8.0
Northwestern Michigan St. -9.4
Iowa Indiana 0.9
Maryland Rutgers 12.6
Boise St. Air Force 17.8
San Diego St. UNLV 3.9
Wyoming San Jose St. 15.1
Utah St. Nevada -8.1
Fresno St. Colorado St. 13.9
Washington Colorado 3.7
Washington St. Utah -7.5
UCLA Oregon 4.9
USC Oregon St. 9.5
LSU Missouri 0.4
Kentucky Alabama 4.4
South Carolina Auburn -6.4
Arkansas Texas A&M 2.7
Vanderbilt Florida -3.2
Georgia Tennessee -4.4
Mississippi St. Ole Miss 6.3
San Diego BYU -3.4
San Francisco Loyola Marymount 8.8
Gonzaga Pepperdine 29.2
Portland Saint Mary’s -16.1
Pacific Santa Clara 10.0
Louisiana Tech Middle Tennessee -3.8
Rice Western Kentucky -12.2
Murray St. Tennessee Tech 14.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Texas-Arlington 10.3
Seattle New Mexico St. -8.0
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
East Carolina Connecticut -4.7
Tulsa South Florida 15.9
Cincinnati Wichita St. 7.3
Temple Houston -2.2
Clemson Duke -3.1
Florida St. Pittsburgh 20.7
Seton Hall DePaul 11.4
Michigan Ohio St. 2.0
Illinois Nebraska -0.7
Purdue Penn St. 11.9
California Stanford -6.4
Evansville Loyola (Chi.) -5.9

PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Villanova 120.5 BIGE
2 Purdue 119.9 BTEN
3 Duke 119.8 ACC
4 Virginia 119.6 ACC
5 Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
6 Cincinnati 118.5 AAC
7 North Carolina 116.1 ACC
8 Gonzaga 116.0 WCC
9 Kansas 116.0 B12
10 Texas Tech 116.0 B12
11 West Virginia 115.6 B12
12 Auburn 115.2 SEC
13 Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
14 Tennessee 114.1 SEC
15 Creighton 113.4 BIGE
16 Ohio St. 113.4 BTEN
17 Clemson 113.2 ACC
18 Xavier 113.0 BIGE
19 Arizona 112.8 PAC12
20 Nevada 112.5 MWC
21 TCU 112.4 B12
22 Texas A&M 112.4 SEC
23 Florida St. 112.3 ACC
24 Oklahoma 112.2 B12
25 Louisville 112.1 ACC

PiRate Ratings By Power Conferences

Team PiRate Conf.
Cincinnati 118.5 AAC
Wichita St. 114.7 AAC
Houston 111.5 AAC
SMU 107.6 AAC
Temple 105.8 AAC
UCF 103.9 AAC
Tulsa 102.3 AAC
Memphis 99.7 AAC
Tulane 99.4 AAC
Connecticut 99.4 AAC
East Carolina 91.7 AAC
South Florida 89.9 AAC
Duke 119.8 ACC
Virginia 119.6 ACC
North Carolina 116.1 ACC
Clemson 113.2 ACC
Florida St. 112.3 ACC
Louisville 112.1 ACC
Miami FL 111.0 ACC
Notre Dame 110.7 ACC
Virginia Tech 110.6 ACC
North Carolina St. 108.3 ACC
Syracuse 108.3 ACC
Boston College 106.3 ACC
Wake Forest 105.6 ACC
Georgia Tech 102.5 ACC
Pittsburgh 95.1 ACC
Kansas 116.0 B12
Texas Tech 116.0 B12
West Virginia 115.6 B12
TCU 112.4 B12
Oklahoma 112.2 B12
Baylor 111.4 B12
Texas 110.0 B12
Kansas St. 109.1 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.6 B12
Iowa St. 105.1 B12
Villanova 120.5 BIGE
Creighton 113.4 BIGE
Xavier 113.0 BIGE
Butler 112.0 BIGE
Seton Hall 111.3 BIGE
Marquette 108.9 BIGE
Providence 107.5 BIGE
St. John’s 107.1 BIGE
Georgetown 104.9 BIGE
DePaul 103.4 BIGE
Purdue 119.9 BTEN
Michigan St. 119.4 BTEN
Ohio St. 113.4 BTEN
Michigan 111.9 BTEN
Penn St. 111.5 BTEN
Maryland 110.7 BTEN
Nebraska 107.8 BTEN
Indiana 107.1 BTEN
Northwestern 107.0 BTEN
Wisconsin 105.9 BTEN
Iowa 105.0 BTEN
Minnesota 104.8 BTEN
Illinois 104.1 BTEN
Rutgers 101.6 BTEN
Nevada 112.5 MWC
Boise St. 108.0 MWC
San Diego St. 106.8 MWC
Fresno St. 106.5 MWC
UNLV 106.4 MWC
New Mexico 102.1 MWC
Wyoming 101.9 MWC
Utah St. 100.9 MWC
Colorado St. 96.1 MWC
Air Force 93.7 MWC
San Jose St. 90.3 MWC
Arizona 112.8 PAC12
Arizona St. 110.8 PAC12
USC 109.2 PAC12
UCLA 108.7 PAC12
Oregon 107.8 PAC12
Utah 107.7 PAC12
Stanford 104.2 PAC12
Oregon St. 103.2 PAC12
Washington 103.1 PAC12
Colorado 102.9 PAC12
Washington St. 97.2 PAC12
California 94.8 PAC12
Auburn 115.2 SEC
Tennessee 114.1 SEC
Texas A&M 112.4 SEC
Florida 111.8 SEC
Kentucky 111.3 SEC
Arkansas 111.1 SEC
Missouri 110.7 SEC
Alabama 110.4 SEC
Mississippi St. 107.8 SEC
LSU 107.6 SEC
Georgia 106.2 SEC
Vanderbilt 105.6 SEC
South Carolina 105.3 SEC
Mississippi 104.5 SEC
Gonzaga 116.0 WCC
Saint Mary’s 112.0 WCC
BYU 106.9 WCC
San Diego 100.5 WCC
San Francisco 100.0 WCC
Pacific 99.4 WCC
Loyola Marymount 94.2 WCC
Portland 92.9 WCC
Santa Clara 92.4 WCC
Pepperdine 90.3 WCC

Top Mid-Major and Low-Major Teams

Rhode Island 111.5 A10
Middle Tennessee 108.2 CUSA
Western Kentucky 106.7 CUSA
Loyola Chicago 107.4 MVC
Murray St. 106.4 OVC
Louisiana Lafayette 108.3 SB
South Dakota 106.8 Sum
New Mexico St. 108.4 WAC

Great TV Watching Options This Weekend

Once again, another great schedule of games allows college basketball fans some excellent viewing options.  Beginning tonight (Friday) at 7:00 PM Eastern Time, St. Bonaventure hosts Rhode Island.  The game will air on ESPN2.  The Bonnies (9-4/19-6) are tied for second place in the Atlantic 10 still have a remote chance to receive an at-large bid, and any chance would necessitate a win over URI.

Saturday’s great slate of games begins at 12 Noon Eastern Time.  Oklahoma hosts Texas on ESPN; Butler hosts Providence on Fox; and Miami hosts Syracuse on CBS.

At 4 PM EST, one of the best games of the day could be Arkansas hosting Texas A&M on ESPN.  At 4:30 PM EST, the Big East regular season title could be decided when Xavier hosts Villanova on Fox.  The winner should remain a number one seed on Monday.

At 6 PM EST, Kansas hosts West Virginia on ESPN.  The loser of this game will probably be eliminated from the Big 12 regular season race, while the winner will become Texas Tech’s key rival.

At 7 PM EST, Florida Gulf Coast hosts Lipscomb on ESPN3.  FGCU has already clinched the top seed in the Atlantic Sun, while Lipscomb is currently number two.  The significance here is that FGCU will host the A-Sun Tournament, so it will be interesting to see if the second best team in the league can compete with them on the same floor.

At 7:30 PM EST on ESPNU, Baylor hosts Texas Tech.  TTU has a chance to gain a game on one of the two nearest contenders (KU-WVU), but if the Red Raiders lose, then they will lose a game to the winner of that other game.  Baylor is actually the hottest team in the Big 12, and a win here would give the Bears a great upward move in the Bubble.

At 8:15 PM EST, Louisville host North Carolina on ESPN.  The winner has a chance to move up to number two in the ACC by the end of the weekend, while the loser could fall down in the standings as far as ninth place.

At 10:15 PM EST on ESPN, UCLA hosts Oregon.  Both teams are currently Bubble teams, so the winner will start the new week in good shape, while the loser will be facing some must win games.

Sunday presents additional excellent viewing options.  It starts at 1 PM EST, with two excellent Power Conference games.  Rivals Michigan and Ohio State square off in Ann Arbor in a game televised by CBS.  At the same time, Clemson hosts Duke on the ACC Network.

At 2 PM EST on ESPN3, it might not sound like a big game, but the Vermont-Hartford game in Burlington might be one to consider watching.  UVA is 12-0 in the America East Conference and will most likely host the conference tournament.  Hartford is one of three teams with enough talent to pull off an upset.

The top game of the day tips off at 4 PM EST, when Cincinnati hosts Wichita State.  This will be a battle of two aggressive, defense-dominant teams.  Cinti fell at Houston Thursday night, while the Shockers had to come from behind to beat Temple.  Seeding will be on the line in this one.

Finally, at 8 PM EST on the Big Ten Network, Penn State visits Purdue.  The Nittany Lions roared big time in a Thursday night blowout against Ohio State.  If Penn State pulls off the upset Sunday, that will give them two Quadrant 1 wins in a row, and that will certainly place Penn State in the heat of the discussion.  Purdue must win this game to remain in contention for a number one seed.

 

 

December 29, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads For December 30-31, 2017

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:56 am
Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Connecticut Wichita St. -10.0
Houston Temple 8.6
North Carolina Wake Forest 14.0
Duke Florida St. 10.6
Virginia Boston College 16.2
Notre Dame Georgia Tech 16.5
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) -11.8
Clemson N. C. State 8.5
TCU Oklahoma 1.4
Xavier DePaul 16.1
Butler Villanova -7.9
Marquette Georgetown 8.3
Nevada New Mexico 15.7
San Diego St. Utah St. 10.1
UNLV Boise St. 4.0
Arizona Arizona St. 2.5
Stanford California 7.1
Arkansas Tennessee 5.2
Florida Vanderbilt 9.1
Alabama Texas A&M -4.1
BYU Saint Mary’s 0.2
Gonzaga Santa Clara 25.2
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Tulane Tulsa 2.0
Cincinnati Memphis 20.1
East Carolina Central Florida -10.9
SMU South Florida 22.3
Syracuse Virginia Tech 0.1
Creighton Providence 10.2
Seton Hall St. John’s 8.1
Oregon St. Utah -4.0
UCLA Washington 9.0
USC Washington St. 14.1
Oregon Colorado 11.4
Kentucky Georgia 9.8
Ole Miss South Carolina 2.0

 

 

December 27, 2017

PiRate Ratings–College Basketball Issue 1 2017-18

Normally, we do not commence with our basketball coverage until after New Year’s Day, but this year all 351 Division 1 teams have reached the 10-game plateau before the turn of the year.  It takes our PiRate Ratings 10 games into everybody’s schedule before the average statistics calm down enough to make our ratings worth a grain of salt.

We have made a couple of changes this season.  First, our Red, White, and Blue ratings have been sent to the scrap pile.  They were just minor variations in the algorithm of the stats we use to determine power ratings.  Instead, beginning this season, we have put all three algorithms together into one conglomerate rating, simply “The PiRate Rating.”

We have been in contact with most of our Bracketology Gurus from last year, and we hope to have this function up and running soon.  We are still efforting to contact two of our past contributors, and we hope they will soon return to the ship.  As some of our loyal followers remember last season, our Gurus were 100% accurate, 68 for 68, in picking the NCAA Tournament teams on the morning of Selection Sunday.  As far as we can tell, no national bracketologist matched this feat.

The lineup this year is for a bracketology composite to be released on Monday or Tuesday (depends on when all our Gurus get their data to us), and for a preview of the weekend games of the top conferences to be issued on Friday afternoons.  Unfortunately, since we are not automated, we cannot release selections for all 351 teams nor for weekday games.  We will limit our selections to Saturday and Sunday conference games and games between NCAA contenders of the power leagues.  We will also release our ratings of the power conferences.  For those that want more information on mid-major and low-major conferences, we will periodically report on these conference races, beginning with our first one today.

The PiRate Ratings Top 25 for December 27, 2017

A rating of 100 is the national average.  115 or above is a final four caliber team.

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Villanova 121.4 BE
2 Duke 120.0 ACC
3 Michigan St. 119.8 B10
4 Purdue 119.7 B10
5 Kansas 119.4 B12
6 Virginia 117.4 ACC
7 North Carolina 116.8 ACC
8 Xavier 115.9 BE
9 Texas A&M 115.9 SEC
10 West Virginia 115.8 B12
11 Wichita St. 115.4 AAC
12 Gonzaga 115.2 WCC
13 Arizona St. 115.0 P12
14 Texas Tech 115.0 B12
15 Cincinnati 114.9 AAC
16 Oklahoma 114.7 B12
17 Arkansas 114.6 SEC
18 Arizona 114.5 P12
19 Creighton 114.1 BE
20 Florida St. 113.4 ACC
21 Tennessee 113.4 SEC
22 Miami FL 113.2 ACC
23 Seton Hall 113.1 BE
24 TCU 113.1 B12
25 Clemson 112.8 ACC

Rankings By Top Conferences

Team PiRate Conf.
Wichita St. 115.4 AAC
Cincinnati 114.9 AAC
SMU 112.0 AAC
Houston 110.6 AAC
Temple 106.7 AAC
UCF 104.5 AAC
Tulsa 102.2 AAC
Connecticut 101.3 AAC
Tulane 100.6 AAC
Memphis 99.0 AAC
South Florida 92.9 AAC
East Carolina 91.7 AAC
Duke 120.0 ACC
Virginia 117.4 ACC
North Carolina 116.8 ACC
Florida St. 113.4 ACC
Miami FL 113.2 ACC
Clemson 112.8 ACC
Virginia Tech 112.6 ACC
Notre Dame 112.5 ACC
Louisville 111.3 ACC
Syracuse 108.2 ACC
North Carolina St. 107.4 ACC
Wake Forest 105.8 ACC
Boston College 105.2 ACC
Georgia Tech 100.6 ACC
Pittsburgh 98.4 ACC
Michigan St. 119.8 B10
Purdue 119.7 B10
Michigan 111.9 B10
Maryland 111.8 B10
Minnesota 110.5 B10
Ohio St. 110.1 B10
Penn St. 109.5 B10
Northwestern 108.4 B10
Wisconsin 106.7 B10
Iowa 106.4 B10
Illinois 106.3 B10
Indiana 104.6 B10
Rutgers 104.4 B10
Nebraska 104.2 B10
Kansas 119.4 B12
West Virginia 115.8 B12
Texas Tech 115.0 B12
Oklahoma 114.7 B12
TCU 113.1 B12
Baylor 112.1 B12
Texas 111.6 B12
Kansas St. 109.3 B12
Oklahoma St. 109.0 B12
Iowa St. 105.1 B12
Villanova 121.4 BE
Xavier 115.9 BE
Creighton 114.1 BE
Seton Hall 113.1 BE
Butler 110.3 BE
St. John’s 108.8 BE
Marquette 108.4 BE
Providence 106.3 BE
Georgetown 103.4 BE
DePaul 103.0 BE
Nevada 112.3 MWC
San Diego St. 109.0 MWC
UNLV 108.9 MWC
Boise St. 107.6 MWC
Fresno St. 106.3 MWC
Utah St. 101.3 MWC
Wyoming 101.0 MWC
New Mexico 99.4 MWC
Colorado St. 96.5 MWC
Air Force 92.7 MWC
San Jose St. 92.4 MWC
Arizona St. 115.0 P12
Arizona 114.5 P12
USC 110.4 P12
Oregon 109.8 P12
UCLA 107.9 P12
Utah 107.4 P12
Colorado 102.3 P12
Stanford 101.7 P12
Washington 101.7 P12
Oregon St. 100.4 P12
Washington St. 100.4 P12
California 97.6 P12
Texas A&M 115.9 SEC
Arkansas 114.6 SEC
Tennessee 113.4 SEC
Kentucky 111.8 SEC
Florida 111.4 SEC
Auburn 111.0 SEC
Missouri 110.0 SEC
Alabama 108.3 SEC
South Carolina 106.9 SEC
Vanderbilt 106.2 SEC
Georgia 106.1 SEC
LSU 106.0 SEC
Mississippi St. 105.8 SEC
Mississippi 105.3 SEC
Gonzaga 115.2 WCC
Saint Mary’s 110.9 WCC
BYU 107.2 WCC
San Diego 102.5 WCC
San Francisco 100.4 WCC
Pacific 97.0 WCC
Loyola Marymount 96.7 WCC
Santa Clara 93.8 WCC
Portland 93.1 WCC
Pepperdine 92.3 WCC

A Look at the 22, One Bid Leagues

America East
Albany has the best record at 11-3, and one of their three losses was by just two points against Louisville, while Vermont at 8-5 has played a slightly tougher schedule and has narrow misses at Kentucky, Marquette, and St. Bonaventure. Vermont ran the table in the AmEast last year, and the Catamounts are the team to beat.

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast (7-7) was supposed to be the class of the A-Sun this year with a team similar to their great past squads under former coach Andy Enfield. However, they look like the third best team as conference play begins. Lipscomb (9-4) swept rival and perennial NCAA Tournament team Belmont in a home and home series, and they stayed close with a ranked Tennessee team. NJIT (7-6) appears to be the other team capable of winning the conference race. Of course, this league could easily see a middle of the pack team win the conference tournament. The tournament is played on campus, so the top seed will have home court advantage throughout. Lipscomb is currently 5-0 at home, so this is something to keep an eye on for the next several weeks.

Big Sky
Portland State (10-3) is the cream of the class as the year ends, but this league has some talented teams, and the Vikings will not run the table and easily earn the lone NCAA bid. Challenges will come from Idaho (8-4), Northern Colorado (9-5), Weber State (7-5), and Montana (7-5). Portland State averages over 90 points per game and led Duke at the half earlier this year. They have an outstanding pair of tall guard in Deontae North and Bryce Canda, and this is a team that could be a #13 seed that can beat a #4 seed in the Round of 64.

Big South
The conference race starts with three teams appearing to be above the rest of the league, but this looks like a bit of a down year in the Big South. Liberty (9-4) has a win at Wake Forest, but they also lost at home to Mercer. The Flames have the best defense in the league, led by Bradley transfer Scottie James at power forward. Winthrop (6-5) has the superior offense in the league, thrice exceeding 100 points so far. However, all three of those centennial-topping games came against non-Division I teams. Against a decent team like Auburn, the Eagles gave up 119 points and lost by 34. UNC-Asheville (7-6) has underachieved in November and December, but with three quality starters in Macio Teague, Ahmad Thomas, and Kevin Vannatta, the Bulldogs can still put it together and win the league again.

Big West
UCSB (10-3) has the highest power rating so far, but the three co-favorites to win the conference are just behind and not by much. UC-Davis (8-5), Cal State Fullerton (7-4), and UC-Irvine (5-10) will be there in March. UC-Irvine’s poor record is a bit misleading, as the Anteaters have played a gruesome schedule that includes losses to South Dakota State, Kansas State, Arizona State, UCLA, Nevada, and Saint Mary’s, all who could be in the NCAA Tournament.

Colonial
Towson (10-3) has the best overall record, but their 10 wins have come against nobody special. Charleston (9-3) is in a similar boat with no significant wins. Northeastern (7-5), Hofstra (7-5), and William & Mary (7-4) play much better on their home floors than when away from home, and this group of five teams should contend for top honors. William & Mary may be the team with the potential to improve the most in the next two months and emerge as the favorite. With just a little defensive improvement, the Tribe could be scary in an opening round game.

Conference USA
We will have to monitor this league a bit closer, because there is a small possibility that this league could move up into the multiple bid leagues. Middle Tennessee (8-4) is trying to emerge as the Gonzaga of the South. The Blue Raiders have won back-to-back opening round NCAA Tournament games over Big Ten teams the last two seasons, and they beat Vanderbilt and Ole Miss so far. Their four losses have been to teams that should be in the NCAA Tournament (Belmont, Auburn, USC, and Miami), and they nearly beat USC and Miami in Honolulu. Five other teams could contend with the heavily favored Blue Raiders, and that is where CUSA could eventually get a second team in the Dance. Old Dominion (9-3) has an excellent controlled offense and quality defense, the type that can win conference tournaments in March. Western Kentucky (8-5) has the talent to pull off three conference tournament wins. The Hilltoppers beat Purdue and SMU and lost a narrow game to Villanova, so they will be tough in conference play. Louisiana Tech (9-4), UAB (9-4), and Marshall (9-4) all have stellar offensive games, and in this league, any of this trio could get hot in March and win the conference tournament. If MTSU wins the regular season title with only one or two losses and then loses in the CUSA Tournament Championship Game, the league could get that second bid. For now, we leave this as a one-bid league.

Horizon
Northern Kentucky (7-5) was supposed to win this conference with ease this year after earning its first ever NCAA Tournament bid last year. Oakland (8-5) and Wright State (8-5) look like serious challengers this year. Oakland can score 100 points or give up 100 points on a random night, while Wright State can hold an opponent under 50 points or struggle to score 50 points on a random night. Neither team is complete enough to win a game in the Round of 64.

Ivy
Now that there is a four-team post-season tournament in this league, determining the upper division is more important than ever. This year, it looks rather easy to determine which four teams will make the tournament, as there is quite a division between number four and number five. Penn (8-4), Princeton (7-7), Yale (6-8), and Harvard (5-7) should be the top four in some order or another. Princeton has the best win, besting USC in Los Angeles.

Metro Atlantic
This looks like an off year for Monmouth (4-8). The Hawks could not pull off any signature wins in the pre-conference schedule, and it leaves Iona (6-6) as the only team capable of winning an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. If any other MAAC team wins the automatic bid, chances are high they will play an early game in Dayton.

Mid-American
This is possibly the most balanced league this year, but then this isn’t anything new. The MAC has several good but not great teams. As many as eight teams have the talent to win the conference tournament, but chances are rather strong that whoever that team is, they will make a quick departure in the Big Dance, losing by a modest amount to their favored opponent. Central Michigan (10-2) has no special wins with a seven point loss at Michigan being their top resume opponent. Eastern Michigan (8-3) can score points quickly in their up-tempo offense, but the Eagles lack the defense to become scary. Ball State (8-4) has a seven-game winning streak, which includes the best win in the league, a win at Notre Dame, and the Cardinals need to be watched a little closer to see if this may develop into something impressive. Other teams to watch include Buffalo (7-5), Ohio (6-5), Toledo (7-5), Western Michigan (7-5), and Kent State (6-6). You can pick one of these eight teams out of a hat and have as good a chance at predicting the NCAA recipient with the same accuracy as the top prognosticators.

Mideastern Athletic
This league has been known to produce some surprise upset winners in the past, including a 15-seed knocking off a 2-seed. Even though no MEAC teams have impressive pre-conference records, the top members are competitive and tend to improve in February and March as they gain confidence from a lot of league wins. Keep an eye on UNC-Central (5-8). While the Eagles have no signature wins, they have lost some close games to good teams. If UNCC doesn’t win the conference, then it will most likely go to either North Carolina A&T (7-7) or Morgan State (4-7).

Missouri Valley
Don’t be confused by the Valley becoming a one-bid league. You may not have realized that Wichita State no longer is a member. The Shockers moved to the American Athletic Conference, leaving the MVC without a major power. Thus, the winner at Arch Madness in St. Louis will get the one bid available to this league. As of now, Missouri State (11-3) and Loyola (Chi.) (10-3) look like the class of the league. The two teams squared off at MSU to begin conference play, and the Bears pulled off a narrow home victory. Other teams to keep an eye on include Bradley (10-3), new member Valparaiso (9-4), and Northern Iowa (8-4).

Northeast
This looks like a First Four Game league with the winner going to Dayton. As of this writing, seven of the league’s ten members are bunched rather closely, although not as much so as the MAC. St. Francis (Pa.) (6-5) has the most impressive resume to date, but the Red Flash have very little to show. They played toe-to-toe on the road against Saint Mary’s for 14 minutes, before they fell far behind early in the second half. They stayed within a few points at Louisville for 17 minutes and even went on a 24-10 run in the second half, but they still lost by double digits. But, they also trailed Duke by 30 points in the first 10 minutes of the game. So, this is still a team that nobody will fear, even in the opening round in Dayton. Wagner (7-4) and Robert Morris (6-7) look like the top two contenders, but the talent in this league is not strong enough to say that these three are surely the best three in the league. It will take 5 or 6 conference games before the true contenders are known.

Ohio Valley
The OVC looks to be an improved league in 2018, but they still have a long way to go before it threatens to be a two-bid league. Perennial favorite Belmont (8-5) has been hot and cold so far, beating Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, and Western Kentucky, and narrowly losing to Providence and unbeaten TCU, but they also were swept by neighborhood rival Lipscomb in their annual home and home series. Former dominant league member Murray State (8-3) is on the rise once again, and the Racers have a balanced offense, capable of scoring inside and from behind the arc. Jacksonville State (9-4) is an up and comer, and the led deep into the second half at Mississippi State and missed on two good looks in the final 5 seconds in a one point loss at Oregon State.

Patriot
Navy (9-4) and Army (7-4) have the two best records in the league in the preseason, but Bucknell (6-7) appears to be the class of the league like usual. The Bison began 0-4 with a tough three-game stretch that saw them play at Arkansas, North Carolina, and Maryland in the same week, losing close games in the latter two. Bucknell actually led the Terps by 15 at the half. This will be a team that could give a favorite fits in a Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.

Southern
This league is better than most national media give it credit. In fact, there are four teams this year that have the talent to win a game in the NCAA Tournament, and maybe one team has Sweet 16 potential. That team is East Tennessee State (8-4). The Buccaneers lost by just two at Xavier and led at Kentucky by 10 points in the first half, so they have the potential to pull off an upset in the Dance. Furman (9-4), UNC-Greensboro (9-4), and Mercer (6-6) look to be the other top contenders.

Southland
Stephen F. Austin (11-2) has become the Kansas of this league, and any talk of picking a league champion starts here. The Lumberjacks’ two losses came by slim margins on the road against SEC teams, while they also won at LSU. SFA’s top rivals this year include Abilene Christian (8-5), Lamar (8-5), and Central Arkansas (6-7).

Southwestern Athletic
This is the league that always puts its conference champion in Dayton for an opening round game. It is continually the last-place team in power ratings every year, and this year is no different. How weak is the SWAC? Consider that five teams (Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Mississippi Valley St., Texas Southern, and Arkanas-Pine Bluff are a combined 0-65! Yes, the best record among this quintet is ASU’s 0-12 record. Yet, it would not be surprising if one of these teams eventually wins the conference tournament and gets an automatic bid with 20 losses. Texas Southern (0-13) actually possesses the best PiRate Rating as of today. The best records in the pre-season belong to Grambling (4-8) and Alcorn State (4-9). While Alcorn’s four wins came against non-Division I teams, at least Grambling owns a win over Georgia Tech.

Summitt
Like CUSA, this league is close to moving into potential two-bid status. That’s because South Dakota (12-4) is on the cusp of contending for an at-large bid. The Coyotes have come the closest to knocking off unbeaten TCU, losing by just 5 (it was a 1-point game in the final minute). Two of their other three losses came against Duke and UCLA on the road, and they were very competitive in both contests. Rival South Dakota State (11-5) won at Ole Miss and defeated Iowa on a neutral floor, and they dropped close games to Colorado and Wichita State. Fort Wayne (9-6) is one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation, but if they ever get their act together for three consecutive games, the Mastodons could earn the automatic bid. For the second year in a row, FW clobbered Indiana, winning by 20 at Assembly Hall. They led at Kentucky until just before halftime. But, you never know what Mastodon team will show up.

Sun Belt
Most people think of this as a football conference, but the SBC is a tough mid-major basketball league as well. While there is no chance that more than one team will make it to the NCAA Tournament this year, there are three quality teams that have the talent to make it to the Round of 32. Louisiana-Lafayette (10-3) is one of the most exciting teams to watch. The Ragin’ Cajuns can press the action on both ends of the floor, and they can pound it inside with a couple of talented forwards in Bryce Washington and JaKeenan Grant. Georgia Southern (9-4), Texas-Arlington (9-4), and Georgia State (9-4) look to be the top contenders. All four of these conference foes are talented enough to win in the Round of 64. Keep an eye on UTA’s multi-talented big man Kevin Hervey. He can score inside and outside like a mini-LeBron.

Western Athletic
There are two WAC teams that nobody will want to face in a Round of 64 game, and chances are high that one of the dynamic duo will make the Dance. New Mexico State (11-3) sneaked into the Championship game of the Hawaii Diamondhead Classic after beating previously undefeated Miami. It took a deep three by USC’s Bennie Boatwright to keep the Aggies from winning the tournament. NMSU also owns an impressive double-digit win over Illinois. This is Grand Canyon’s (9-4) first year as an eligible NCAA Tournament team and former NBA great Dan Majerle has a team made up of tough competitors. GCU goes 10-deep without much drop in talent, and this team plays together with no real star. If not for some weak shooting nights, the Antelopes would be the overwhelming favorite, but for now, they remain a co-favorite.

By our count, that leaves 46 bids to be doled out to the remaining 10 conferences. We think as of today that the West Coast, Mountain West and Atlantic 10 conferences will receive just two bids. That will then leave 40 bids for the top seven leagues, or an average of 5.7 teams per power conference.

Predictions for Saturday-Sunday power conference games coming Friday afternoon

 

 

March 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 505 Sweet 16 Criteria Reveal

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:00 am

If you get to start anew with your brackets in whatever pool you are playing in as a participant, we have updated our PiRate Ratings Criteria for the Sweet 16.
If you played along with us, you should have 10 teams left in your Sweet 16, having 26 of the 32 first round winners. If you are in a league where you get one point for each winner that goes from 64 to 32, and two points for every correct Sweet 16 team, then you should be sitting pretty with 46 points. Hopefully, we will help you score some 3-point winners the next two nights, whether you must stick with your original picks, or you get to start over with the 16 remaining teams.

To understand our methods if you don’t already know, refer to this primer: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/bracketnomics-505-the-advanced-level-course-in-bracket-selection/

Here is a breakdown of each game for the next two nights, followed by an update at how the Elite 8 and Final Four look using our criteria.

Oregon vs. Michigan
Power Conference: Both teams

Strength of Schedule: Very slight edge to Michigan, but not enough to matter much

R+T Rating: Large edge to Oregon, as the Ducks’ R+T is 14.7 to the Wolverines’ 3.2. This means that on average, Oregon will have an opportunity through superior rebounding, ball-steals, and overall turnover differential to outscore Michigan by 11.5 points. There is a caveat, as the Ducks are missing a key component in Chris Boucher.
Ability to Win Away from Home: Oregon 14-5/Michigan 11-8. The Ducks have a decent advantage here, but not enough to move this game to the win column.

Winning Streak(s): The Ducks won 17 games in a row at one point this season and eight in a row another time, while Michigan had two, five-game winning streaks. Once again, Oregon has the advantage here, but we cannot annoint the Ducks winners just yet. Not having Boucher removes a lot of these advantages three rounds into the Big Dance.

Since the strengths of schedule are similar, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Michigan = 8.9, Oregon = 13.8, Ducks look better here
FG% Differential: Michigan = 1.9, Oregon = 7.8, Ducks look much better here, as UM fails to qualify
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 68

This is a tough game to figure out, because Boucher’s absence makes Oregon less than what the stats say. Still, the Ducks come out as the superior team based on how we use the criteria. In our original picks, we had Louisville knocking Oregon out of the tournament in this round, but the Cardinals were sent packing last weekend.

PiRate Criteria Pick: OREGON

 

Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Power Conference: West Virginia is, Gonzaga is not. A slight edge to the Mountaineers

Strength of Schedule: WVU 55.55. Gonzaga 54.02, a slight edge to the Mountaineers

R+T Rating: WVU 19.1, Gonzaga 21.2, a push when SOS is applied

Ability to Win Away from Home: WVU 11-6, Gonzaga 19-0, even with SOS factored into the equation, Gonzaga has the advantage here.

Winning Streak(s): WVU 8 & 4, Gonzaga 29 & 5, Gonzaga enjoys a small advantage

We must handicap these stats with Gonzaga playing in a weaker conference and a slightly weaker schedule
Scoring Margin: WVU 15.3, Gonzaga 22.8, a push
FG% Differential: WVU 3.4, Gonzaga 14.5
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 71

This is where we see another #1 seed going down. Gonzaga’s main Achilles Heel is their conference, where the WCC has two other quality teams. Of course, teams like Butler, George Mason, VCU, and Wichita State have advanced to the Final Four, but the percentages say that these are exceptions and not the norm. When you are trying to win a contest by going with the percentages, you go with the norm unless you have a major reason not to do so. When looking at the obvious way this game will deviate from the norm, it comes from the vaunted WVU full-court press, something that Gonzaga has not faced from a quality team this year. It is our belief that GU will commit very few turnovers against the press and even capitalize with a couple of easy baskets, making it look like to the casual fan that the press is not working. However, we believe it will take the Bulldogs out of their offense just enough to cause them to rush and make poor shot selections, and it will also begin to wear their bigger, bulkier players down in the second half. A fatigued team is only a shell of itself, and once GU is fatigued, WVU will pull away and win this game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WEST VIRGINIA

Kansas vs. Purdue
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: KU 58.11, PU 55.83, a decided advantage for the Jayhawks

R+T Rating: KU 12.3, PU 15.5, a credible advantage for the Boilermakers

Ability to Win Away from Home: KU 16-3, PU 12-5, a tiny advantage for KU

Winning Streak(s): KU 18 & 8, PU 7 & 6, KU has the advantage, but this isn’t overwhelming since PU has two 6+ streaks, and that is all we are looking for in this criterion

Since the strengths of schedule favor KU enough to matter, we must handicap the following stats.
Scoring Margin: KU 11.4, PU 12.6, with the handicap, KU has a minor advantage here
FG% Differential: KU 7.3, PU 6.4, a slight edge to the Jayhawks
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 72 which will favor KU in the 2nd half

In previous years where Purdue was very good, we would call for Kansas to easily win this game because in the past, Purdue did not own good R+T numbers. In fact, they were downright awful. However, this year is very different up in West Lafayatte, where Purdue has an R+T number strong enough to reach the Final Four. Unfortunately, Kansas has the criteria strong enough to win the National Championship, and thus we must go with the team that is only a tad better in this game. A Boilermaker win would not be a surprise at all, but we must go with the percentages.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KANSAS (but this should be an outstanding game)

Arizona vs. Xavier
Power Conference: Both (in recent years, we would discount the Pac-12 some, but not this year. Three league teams made the Sweet 16.

Strength of Schedule: Arizona 58.17, Xavier 58.70, a wash

R+T Rating: Arizona 18.0, Xavier 15.2, the Wildcats with an ever so slight advantage that is not enough to mean much

Ability to Win Away from Home: Arizona 17-3, Xavier 11-9, this is a big advantage for ‘Zona

Winning Streak(s): Arizona 15 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6, Another tiny advantage to the Wildcats

Since the strengths of schedule are almost identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Arizona 11.0, Xavier 4.1, the Wildcats have a major advantage here, as XU’s scoring margin is well beneath the threshold of a Final Four contender.
FG% Differential: Arizona 6.0, Xavier 0.9, another big edge for Arizona
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67

This one appears to be headed to a double-digit win for the higher-seeded team. Add on to the criteria the fact that Xavier has not been the same since Edmund Sumner was lost for the year at the end of January, and this game looks like a potential breeze for Arizona.
PiRate Criteria Pick: ARIZONA (by double digits)

 

North Carolina vs. Butler
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UNC 59.00, BU 59.04, a total push

R+T Rating: UNC 31.1, BU 9.5, do we really need to go on after this criterion shows the Tar Heels with a chance on average to score 20 more points on rebounds, steals, and turnovers?

Ability to Win Away from Home: UNC 13-7, BU 12-5, pretty much even here

Winning Streak(s): UNC 13 & 7, BU 12 & 5, another push

Since the strengths of schedule are identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: UNC 14.8, BU 7.8, Give the Heels a little more advantage here
FG% Differential: UNC 5.5, BU 3.7, more props for the Heels
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 70 (Butler will want to slow the pace, but they will have to play catchup)

Pirate Criteria Pick: NORTH CAROLINA

Baylor vs. South Carolina
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: BU 59.40, USC 56.23, the Bears have a little advantage here

R+T Rating: BU 19.3, USC 10.4, Baylor with decent advantage in this one

Ability to Win Away from Home: BU 12-5, USC 11-7, another tilt to the Bears

Winning Streak(s): BU 15 & 5, USC 8 & 5, BU with yet another advantage

Since the strengths of schedule favors Baylor, the following stats must be handicapped a little
Scoring Margin: BU 10.1, USC 7.9, the criteria keeps tilting green
FG% Differential: BU 7.2, USC 1.9, this continues the trend
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67, Baylor will conrol the pace.

PiRate Criteria Pick: BAYLOR

 

Kentucky vs. UCLA
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UK 58.63, UCLA 54.00, a nice advantage for the Wildcats, but UCLA still meets the minimum number for Final Four consideration, and remember UCLA won at Kentucky earlier this season

R+T Rating: UK 17.2, UCLA 10.9

Ability to Win Away from Home: UK 16-3, UCLA 14-3, nothing to learn here

Winning Streak(s): UK 13 & 7, UCLA 13 & 10, not much here either

We must handicap the following stats in UK’s favor fde to the strengths of schedule
Scoring Margin: UK 13.9, UCLA 15.0, basically a wash
FG% Differential: UK 5.4, UCLA 10.2, The Bruins pick up a big advantage here with Championship-caliber differential
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 74, expect the most up-tempo game of the Sweet 16, and it could even top 75.

Face it: this is the game that is going to make this round. The winner most likely plays North Carolina in the Elite 8, making for a fantastic 48-hours in Memphis, where they could move these games to the Liberty Bowl and still not have enough seats for the fans that want to get in. Think of this game like the second Ali-Frazier fight. Or, if you are a Bruin fan over the age of 55, be forewarned and remember that Houston beat your Bruins in the 1967-68 regular season before meeting up with the worst ever whipping by a number one team in the history of the game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KENTUCKY — Until the Wildcats are knocked out of the tournament, they have the best resume when comparing it to past National Champions.

 

Florida vs. Wisconsin
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: Fla 59.34, UW 54.79, The Gators have a decided advantage

R+T Rating: Fla 3.3, UW 3.3 This is a dirty wash, as neither team can expect to be a Championship team with these R+T ratings.

Ability to Win Away from Home: Fla 17-7, UW 12-7, Florida played a lot of neutral site games near home when their arena was not ready following remodeling. This becomes a wash

Winning Streak(s): Fla. 9 & 7, UW 9 & 8, a wash

Since the strengths of schedule favor the Gators, the following stats must be handicapped in UF’s favor. Scoring Margin: UF 6.2, UW 9.2, a wash
FG% Differential: UF 4.6, UW 4.2, a small edge for the Gators
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 69 We look for the Badgers to slow the tempo a little

When Florida isn’t playing Vanderbilt, they look like Final Four contenders. Actually, two of the three losses to the Commodores came after the Gators lost John Egbunu for the season due to injury, and UF went from 23-5 to 24-8 after that loss. This discounts the Gators’ results enough to make up for the schedule strength favor. In other words, this is a game where you flip a coin. We do not use the Four Factors in this criteria selection process, but if we were to use them for this game, it would just add a bunch of balance, as the teams would come out dead even. We must select somebody to go on and lose to Baylor Sunday, and just because they have a little more recent NCAA Tournament success, we will go with the Badgers.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WISCONSIN –but this is really a tie

Elite 8 to Final Four
Baylor over Wisconsin
Arizona over West Virginia
Kentucky over North Carolina
Kansas over Oregon

Semifinals
Baylor over Arizona
Kentucky over Kansas

Championship
Kentucky over Baylor

Note: When we first revealed the criteria for all 68 teams in the dance, we listed the top 10 teams with the best matching criteria to past champions. The top 6 teams in this list, and 8 of the 10 made the Sweet 16. Here is that top 10 again.
1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Baylor
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Villanova
9. Kansas
10. Purdue

 

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