PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Thursday, March 16, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	Texas A&M-CC	24.2
Arizona	Princeton	13.5
Arkansas	Illinois	1.5
Duke	Oral Roberts	5.1
Houston	Northern Kentucky	19.7
Iowa	Auburn	-2.2
Kansas	Howard	19.6
Maryland	West Virginia	-0.6
Missouri	Utah St.	-2.5
Northwestern	Boise St.	-0.5
San Diego St.	Charleston	5.1
Tennessee	Louisiana	13.3
Texas	Colgate	13.9
Texas A&M	Penn St.	2.4
UCLA	UNC Asheville	18.5
Virginia	Furman	5.6

PiRate Ratings Bracket-Picking 2023

If you earned your PhD in Bracketnomics yesterday, then you are ready to delve right into the numbers that follow and understand the metrics that we use to choose winners in the NCAA Tournament bracket. If you missed it, check it out first before continuing below.

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 2023

Let’s get right to it.  Here is a look at the 68 teams ranked by each metric, starting with the three most important ones.

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

Team	O-RTG
Gonzaga	1
Baylor	2
Iowa	3
Arizona	4
Connecticut	6
Purdue	7
Marquette	8
Xavier	9
Missouri	10
Houston	11
Miami (Fla)	12
Utah St.	13
Kentucky	14
West Virginia	15
Providence	16
Penn St.	17
Texas	18
Alabama	19
Oral Roberts	23
Pittsburgh	24
UCLA	25
Memphis	26
Indiana	27
Creighton	28
Kansas	29
Texas A&M	30
Florida Atlantic	32
Furman	33
Maryland	35
North Carolina St.	37
Saint Mary’s	40
Michigan St.	41
Duke	42
USC	43
Colgate	44
Auburn	48
Tennessee	49
Arkansas	51
Kansas St.	52
TCU	53
Grand Canyon	54
Louisiana	57
Illinois	58
Nevada	61
San Diego St.	64
Charleston	70
UCSB	71
Virginia	74
Boise St.	78
Iona	79
Iowa St.	96
Drake	98
Vermont	99
Princeton	103
Northwestern	109
Kent St.	110
Arizona St.	133
Texas A&M-CC	137
VCU	140
Kennesaw St.	153
Fairleigh Dickinson	155
Mississippi St.	164
Montana St.	170
UNC Asheville	195
Howard	204
Northern Kentucky	217
SE Missouri St.	263
Texas Southern	330

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Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

Team	D-RTG
UCLA	1
Tennessee	2
Alabama	3
Houston	4
Mississippi St.	6
Kansas	7
Iowa St.	8
Saint Mary’s	9
San Diego St.	10
Texas	11
Northwestern	13
Boise St.	14
Creighton	15
Arkansas	16
VCU	17
Connecticut	18
Kansas St.	19
TCU	20
Duke	24
Virginia	25
Purdue	26
Arizona St.	28
Auburn	29
Illinois	32
Maryland	33
Memphis	35
Florida Atlantic	36
Texas A&M	37
Kent St.	38
Michigan St.	40
Arizona	41
Nevada	42
Indiana	43
Drake	44
Marquette	47
USC	48
West Virginia	52
Utah St.	64
Iona	67
Xavier	70
Kentucky	71
Montana St.	73
Charleston	75
Gonzaga	76
North Carolina St.	85
Penn St.	101
Baylor	104
Oral Roberts	107
Providence	108
UNC Asheville	115
Kennesaw St.	116
Northern Kentucky	121
Miami (Fla)	132
Princeton	137
Pittsburgh	142
Louisiana	146
Vermont	153
UCSB	163
Iowa	167
Missouri	178
Furman	183
Texas Southern	196
Grand Canyon	198
Howard	212
Texas A&M-CC	229
Colgate	231
SE Missouri St.	243
Fairleigh Dickinson	361

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Strength of Schedule (PiRate Ratings Formula)

Team	SOS
Kansas	62.66
Alabama	61.84
West Virginia	60.80
Baylor	60.64
Michigan St.	60.44
Iowa St.	60.13
Texas	60.07
Tennessee	59.39
TCU	59.32
Creighton	59.21
Xavier	59.09
Arkansas	59.06
UCLA	58.88
Indiana	58.87
Purdue	58.85
Kentucky	58.51
Auburn	58.50
Marquette	58.43
Penn St.	58.38
Connecticut	58.33
Kansas St.	58.30
Illinois	58.22
Iowa	58.06
Arizona	57.94
Maryland	57.87
Arizona St.	57.81
San Diego St.	57.55
Memphis	57.52
Duke	57.36
Gonzaga	57.29
Missouri	57.24
Texas A&M	57.19
Mississippi St.	57.15
Providence	57.13
Saint Mary’s	57.09
Northwestern	56.73
Houston	56.41
Nevada	56.36
Boise St.	56.35
Utah St.	56.26
Virginia	56.14
USC	56.04
Miami (Fla)	55.89
North Carolina St.	55.27
Pittsburgh	54.58
VCU	53.60
Florida Atlantic	50.25
Drake	50.07
Grand Canyon	49.79
Kent St.	49.77
Louisiana	49.14
Iona	49.08
Furman	48.80
Montana St.	48.22
Kennesaw St.	48.04
Vermont	47.70
Charleston	47.69
Princeton	47.34
Oral Roberts	47.22
UCSB	46.70
Northern Kentucky	46.14
UNC Asheville	45.68
Colgate	44.71
SE Missouri St.	44.35
Texas Southern	44.23
Howard	43.16
Texas A&M-CC	40.76
Fairleigh Dickinson	40.36

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Who Looks Great So Far?

One team has an offensive rating in the top 10 and defensive rating in the top 25 with a schedule strength of 57 or better. That team is Connecticut. Purdue misses this by one defensive spot. Other teams that come close to fitting this criteria are Arizona and Marquette.

Houston, Alabama, and Texas are in the mix here as defensive teams that are close enough in the offensive range to contend. Houston just misses the minimum for schedule strength.

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R+T Ratings (Rate Version)

Team	RateRT
Saint Mary’s	16.86
Houston	16.51
Kentucky	15.77
Connecticut	15.71
Purdue	15.66
Tennessee	14.91
Charleston	14.69
Fairleigh Dickinson	14.63
UCLA	14.51
Iowa St.	13.14
Mississippi St.	11.03
Providence	10.97
Gonzaga	10.91
Duke	10.80
Louisiana	10.51
Texas A&M-CC	10.34
North Carolina St.	10.00
San Diego St.	9.43
Florida Atlantic	9.37
Iowa	8.51
Texas A&M	8.23
Northwestern	7.49
Kent St.	7.31
Illinois	6.80
Northern Kentucky	6.63
Xavier	6.51
West Virginia	6.40
Iona	6.23
Princeton	5.83
TCU	5.77
Baylor	5.54
Furman	5.49
Miami (Fla)	5.43
Virginia	5.43
Montana St.	5.31
Maryland	5.31
Arkansas	5.03
Alabama	4.86
Kennesaw St.	4.34
Drake	4.23
Colgate	4.23
Kansas	4.17
Boise St.	4.00
UCSB	3.49
Arizona	3.49
Texas	3.37
VCU	3.26
Texas Southern	2.91
Auburn	2.74
Pittsburgh	2.74
Howard	2.29
UNC Asheville	2.17
Utah St.	1.89
Oral Roberts	1.71
Memphis	1.43
SE Missouri St.	0.91
Creighton	0.57
Michigan St.	0.57
Vermont	0.51
Kansas St.	0.51
Nevada	0.46
Marquette	0.17
Arizona St.	0.11
Indiana	-0.80
USC	-4.69
Missouri	-5.14
Grand Canyon	-6.42
Penn St.	-8.00

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R+T Ratings (Old Version)

Team	R+T
Houston	23.80
Purdue	23.30
Connecticut	21.25
Saint Mary’s	20.70
Kentucky	20.55
Tennessee	19.85
Charleston	19.20
Duke	18.95
UCLA	18.50
Baylor	18.05
Gonzaga	18.00
Florida Atlantic	16.70
Providence	16.25
Louisiana	16.10
Alabama	14.35
Iowa St.	13.90
Texas A&M-CC	13.80
Mississippi St.	13.70
San Diego St.	13.65
Texas A&M	13.40
Princeton	13.15
Xavier	12.85
Arizona	12.75
North Carolina St.	12.15
Illinois	11.70
Drake	11.50
Kent St.	11.05
Boise St.	10.95
Colgate	10.90
Furman	10.70
Iona	10.65
Montana St.	10.55
Miami (Fla)	10.35
Iowa	10.10
Fairleigh Dickinson	10.00
Utah St.	10.00
Arkansas	9.80
Maryland	9.70
West Virginia	9.25
TCU	9.20
UCSB	9.20
Northwestern	8.90
Oral Roberts	8.65
Pittsburgh	8.50
Creighton	8.40
Kansas	8.40
Virginia	8.35
Grand Canyon	8.25
Kennesaw St.	8.10
VCU	7.85
Texas	7.65
Michigan St.	7.60
Kansas St.	7.25
Northern Kentucky	6.90
Memphis	6.80
Indiana	6.40
Nevada	6.15
Auburn	5.80
Howard	5.50
Texas Southern	4.90
Vermont	4.10
UNC Asheville	3.30
Marquette	3.10
SE Missouri St.	2.45
Arizona St.	2.25
USC	1.70
Penn St.	-1.50
Missouri	-3.45

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R+T measures “spurtability,” the ability for a team to go on a wining scoring run. Once again, Connecticut and Purdue shine in these important metrics, while Houston has an incredible spurtability score.

Also important is to note which teams have poor R+T Ratings, the type that can lead to early upset losses. Among those teams are Missouri, USC, Penn St., and Arizona St.

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3-point FG%

Getting to the secondary ratings, these are still quite important and very usable when comparing teams head to head. Here are the 3-point shooting percentages for the 68 teams in the Field.

Team	3PT%
Colgate	40.8
Michigan St.	39.5
Xavier	39.5
Utah St.	39.3
UNC Asheville	39.0
Gonzaga	38.7
Penn St.	38.5
Grand Canyon	38.3
Arizona	38.2
Louisiana	37.8
Howard	37.7
Drake	37.3
Baylor	37.2
Florida Atlantic	37.2
Saint Mary’s	37.2
Indiana	37.0
Oral Roberts	36.9
Kennesaw St.	36.8
Miami (Fla)	36.8
Texas A&M-CC	36.8
Boise St.	36.5
Missouri	36.1
Creighton	36.0
Iona	36.0
Pittsburgh	36.0
Connecticut	35.9
Vermont	35.9
Kentucky	35.4
Memphis	35.3
San Diego St.	35.3
UCSB	35.3
Virginia	35.3
Providence	35.1
Northern Kentucky	35.0
North Carolina St.	34.9
Houston	34.8
Marquette	34.8
West Virginia	34.8
Furman	34.7
UCLA	34.7
VCU	34.7
Fairleigh Dickinson	34.6
Nevada	34.6
USC	34.5
Kansas	34.4
Princeton	34.4
Iowa	34.3
Kansas St.	34.0
Iowa St.	33.9
Texas	33.9
Alabama	33.8
Montana St.	33.8
Duke	33.6
Kent St.	33.6
Charleston	33.4
Maryland	33.0
Tennessee	32.9
Texas A&M	32.8
SE Missouri St.	32.7
Purdue	32.6
Northwestern	32.1
Arkansas	31.7
Arizona St.	31.4
Auburn	31.4
Illinois	30.9
TCU	30.6
Texas Southern	28.4
Mississippi St.	26.6

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The most glaring part of this is the absence of the top contenders to this point in this category. Against the top defenses, teams are going to need to rely on the three-point shot. Arizona moves up in the contender section with the top percentage among teams appearing near the top in the previous criteria. Purdue is weak here, and the Boilermakers might be vulnerable to a team that can force Purdue to take more perimeter shots than they want to take. Connecticut isn’t great here, but the Huskies don’t have a real liability in this department.

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Offensive Rebound Rate

Team	OReb%
Connecticut	39.4
Kentucky	38.7
Purdue	38.3
Tennessee	36.8
Houston	36.7
Texas A&M	36.6
Duke	36.2
Charleston	35.6
Providence	35.3
Mississippi St.	35.2
Baylor	34.7
Louisiana	34.4
Howard	34.3
Iowa St.	33.9
Alabama	33.8
West Virginia	33.7
UCLA	33.6
Texas A&M-CC	33.5
Saint Mary’s	33.4
Auburn	33.3
TCU	32.4
Fairleigh Dickinson	32.3
Illinois	32.3
Iowa	32.2
Northern Kentucky	32.1
San Diego St.	32.1
Iona	32.0
Miami (Fla)	32.0
Xavier	31.8
Gonzaga	31.3
Grand Canyon	31.2
Arizona	31.1
Texas Southern	31.1
Memphis	31.0
Florida Atlantic	30.7
Kansas	30.7
Kent St.	30.7
North Carolina St.	30.7
Arkansas	30.5
Pittsburgh	30.4
Maryland	30.2
Arizona St.	29.6
Furman	29.5
Princeton	29.4
USC	29.0
VCU	29.0
Texas	28.3
Northwestern	28.2
Indiana	28.0
Kansas St.	28.0
Kennesaw St.	28.0
Michigan St.	27.4
Utah St.	27.3
UCSB	27.0
Missouri	26.8
SE Missouri St.	26.8
Boise St.	26.7
Montana St.	26.6
Marquette	26.5
UNC Asheville	26.3
Creighton	25.5
Virginia	25.5
Colgate	25.4
Oral Roberts	25.4
Drake	24.8
Nevada	23.0
Vermont	20.5
Penn St.	18.8

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Offensive Rebound Rate is a part of R+T Rate, so we don’t want to count this twice. This is better used to compare two teams that are evenly matched. Note that three of the contenders are rated #1, #3, and #5 in this metric.

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2-Point % Defense

Team	2PtD%
Kentucky	36.8
Maryland	37.2
Alabama	41.2
USC	42.4
Houston	42.8
Arizona St.	43.8
Florida Atlantic	44.6
Tennessee	44.6
Grand Canyon	45.0
Illinois	45.3
Creighton	45.6
Saint Mary’s	45.6
Indiana	45.7
Connecticut	45.8
Arizona	45.9
Oral Roberts	45.9
Utah St.	45.9
Mississippi St.	46.2
VCU	46.2
Virginia	46.5
Northwestern	46.6
Duke	46.7
Kent St.	46.7
Auburn	46.8
Princeton	46.8
UCLA	46.8
Arkansas	46.9
Iona	47.0
Drake	47.1
Texas	47.1
Kansas	47.2
Purdue	47.3
Boise St.	47.4
Montana St.	47.4
Texas A&M	47.4
Memphis	47.6
Texas Southern	47.9
Northern Kentucky	48.4
Pittsburgh	48.5
Louisiana	48.6
Michigan St.	48.6
UCSB	48.6
UNC Asheville	48.6
Xavier	48.7
Kansas St.	48.8
Penn St.	48.8
Charleston	49.1
Kennesaw St.	49.1
Nevada	49.1
TCU	49.1
Iowa St.	49.6
Providence	49.6
San Diego St.	49.9
Vermont	49.9
Marquette	50.0
SE Missouri St.	50.2
Howard	50.3
West Virginia	50.5
North Carolina St.	50.6
Furman	50.7
Gonzaga	50.8
Colgate	51.2
Missouri	51.7
Miami (Fla)	51.8
Iowa	52.6
Texas A&M-CC	53.2
Baylor	53.3
Fairleigh Dickinson	55.4

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The contenders all fare well in this category, but there are some teams at the bottom of this metric that might be a bit too generous inside the paint. Baylor, Iowa, Miami, Missouri, and Gonzaga have issues here, which could spell trouble against teams that can pound the ball inside.

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Free Throw Rate

Team	FTR
Texas A&M	45.9
Montana St.	43.7
VCU	41.8
UNC Asheville	41.2
Nevada	39.8
West Virginia	39.7
Arkansas	38.7
SE Missouri St.	37.9
Baylor	37.2
Purdue	37.2
Louisiana	37.1
Providence	36.8
Alabama	36.7
Grand Canyon	36.6
Arizona	36.5
Kansas St.	36.3
Kennesaw St.	36.3
Memphis	35.8
Auburn	35.5
Utah St.	35.0
UCSB	34.8
Mississippi St.	34.6
Virginia	34.5
Texas Southern	34.4
Furman	34.1
Howard	33.9
TCU	33.9
Illinois	33.8
Maryland	33.8
USC	33.8
Gonzaga	33.7
San Diego St.	33.7
Charleston	32.8
Iowa	32.6
Kentucky	32.5
Pittsburgh	32.4
Princeton	31.8
Connecticut	31.6
Texas	31.5
Kent St.	31.3
Saint Mary’s	31.2
Tennessee	30.9
Arizona St.	30.8
Duke	30.8
Xavier	30.8
Boise St.	30.6
Indiana	30.1
Miami (Fla)	30.0
Northwestern	29.7
Missouri	29.5
Florida Atlantic	29.3
Iona	29.0
Vermont	28.7
Northern Kentucky	28.4
Drake	28.2
Creighton	28.1
Houston	28.0
Iowa St.	27.8
Texas A&M-CC	27.6
Colgate	27.3
Marquette	27.1
UCLA	27.1
Fairleigh Dickinson	27.0
Michigan St.	25.8
Kansas	25.3
North Carolina St.	25.3
Oral Roberts	24.9
Penn St.	21.4

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The top contenders all fare well here. They can force defenses to foul and get their starters in foul trouble. Not much to see here.

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Scoring Margin

Team	Marg
Houston	19.4
Gonzaga	14.6
Oral Roberts	14.1
Florida Atlantic	13.8
Tennessee	13.8
Alabama	13.7
UCLA	13.6
Connecticut	13.5
Charleston	13.4
Drake	11.4
Iona	11.4
Saint Mary’s	11.3
Arizona	11.2
Furman	10.9
Kent St.	10.9
Purdue	10.9
Texas	10.5
Colgate	9.6
Marquette	9.3
Utah St.	8.9
Duke	8.6
Grand Canyon	8.5
San Diego St.	8.5
VCU	8.5
Louisiana	8.2
Creighton	8.1
Boise St.	7.9
Texas A&M-CC	7.9
Illinois	7.7
Memphis	7.7
Montana St.	7.6
Virginia	7.5
North Carolina St.	7.4
Princeton	7.4
Miami (Fla)	7.3
TCU	7.3
Xavier	7.3
Maryland	7.2
Kentucky	7.1
Arkansas	7.0
Kansas	7.0
Texas A&M	7.0
Baylor	6.9
Providence	6.8
UCSB	6.6
Indiana	6.5
Kansas St.	6.5
Kennesaw St.	6.4
UNC Asheville	6.4
Vermont	6.4
Iowa	5.8
Nevada	5.7
Auburn	5.6
Iowa St.	5.6
Pittsburgh	5.6
USC	5.5
West Virginia	5.3
Northwestern	5.2
Mississippi St.	4.9
Missouri	4.9
Northern Kentucky	4.6
Penn St.	3.9
Howard	3.6
Fairleigh Dickinson	2.9
Michigan St.	2.8
Arizona St.	2.6
SE Missouri St.	1.7
Texas Southern	-2.2

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Once again, the previous contenders do well here and fit the criteria. Note the major conference teams with scoring margins under 5.0 points per game.

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Regular Season or Conference Tournament Champion

The following teams won either their regular season conference championship or their postseason conference tournament.

Alabama

Arizona

Charleston

Colgate

Drake

Duke

Florida Atlantic

Furman

Gonzaga

Grand Canyon

Houston

Howard

Iona

Kansas

Kennesaw St.

Kent St.

Louisiana

Marquette

Memphis

Montana St.

Northern Kentucky

Oral Roberts

Princeton

Purdue

Saint Mary’s

San Diego St.

SE Missouri St.

Texas

Texas A&M-CC

Texas Southern

UCLA

UCSB

UNC Asheville

VCU

Vermont

Virginia

Miami (Fla) was co-champion of the ACC, but technically not the champion.

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Winning Streak of 10 or More

Team	10+W
Charleston	20
Florida Atlantic	20
Oral Roberts	17
Vermont	15
Connecticut	14
Iona	14
UCLA	14
Houston	13
Purdue	13
Colgate	12
Saint Mary’s	12
Gonzaga	11
Mississippi St.	11
TCU	11
Xavier	11
Drake	10
Kansas	10
Kent St.	10
Louisiana	10
Alabama	9
Arizona St.	9
Boise St.	9
Duke	9
Howard	9
Kansas St.	9
Marquette	9
Miami (Fla)	9
Missouri	9
Providence	9
UCSB	9
UNC Asheville	9
Utah St.	9
VCU	9
Arizona	8
Auburn	8
Creighton	8
Furman	8
Kennesaw St.	8
Maryland	8
Montana St.	8
Princeton	8
Tennessee	8
Texas A&M-CC	8
Virginia	8
Arkansas	7
Indiana	7
Michigan St.	7
Texas A&M	7
USC	7
Baylor	6
Fairleigh Dickinson	6
Grand Canyon	6
Iowa St.	6
Memphis	6
Nevada	6
San Diego St.	6
Texas	6
Iowa	5
Northern Kentucky	5
Northwestern	5
Penn St.	5
Pittsburgh	5
Illinois	4
Kentucky	4
North Carolina St.	4
SE Missouri St.	4
West Virginia	4
Texas Southern	3

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Don’t expect a team that hasn’t won 6 or more games in a row this year to do so in March Madness. Most past national champions had 8 or more game winning streaks, and many had 10 or more game winning streaks.

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Preseason Top 25

Almost every past national champion was in the preseason top 25. The following NCAA Tournament teams were in the preseason top 25.

Team

Alabama

Arizona

Arkansas

Auburn

Baylor

Creighton

Duke

Gonzaga

Houston

Illinois

Indiana

Kansas

Kentucky

San Diego St.

TCU

Tennessee

Texas

UCLA

Virginia

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Coach With Past NCAA Tournament Experience

Team	Yrs.		Deepest
Tennessee	26		1 FF, 2 E8
West Virginia	25		2 FF
Michigan St.	24		1 NC, 8 FF
Kansas	23		1 NC, 4 FF
Iona	22		2 NC, 4 FF
Gonzaga	22		2 FF
Kentucky	21		1NC, 6 FF
Houston	18		2 FF
Purdue	14		5 Swt16
UCLA	13		1 FF
TCU	13		1 E8, 2 Swt16
Iowa	11		6-11 no deep
Xavier	11		4 E8, 4 Swt16
Auburn	11		1 FF, 1 E8
Nevada	11		4 Swt16
Creighton	10		1 Swt16
Baylor	10		1 NC, 2 E8
Virginia	10		1 NC, 1E8, 2 Swt16
Miami (Fla)	10		1 FF, 1 E8, 2 Swt16
Marquette	9		1 FF
Texas A&M	8		1 E8, 3 Swt16
Saint Mary’s	8		1 Swt16
Illinois	6		4-6 no deep
Providence	6		1 Swr16
Alabama	5		1 Swt16
Arkansas	5		2 E8, 1 Swt16
Texas Southern	5		2-5 no deep
USC	5		1 E8, 1 Swt16
Maryland	5		1-5 no deep
Vermont	4		1-4 no deep
Connecticut	4		0-4
Grand Canyon	4		0-4
Iowa St.	3		1 Swt16
Pittsburgh	3		1 E8
Arizona St.	3		1-3 no deep
Mississippi St.	3		1-3 no deep
Boise St.	3		0-3
Colgate	3		0-3
Louisiana	3		0-3
North Carolina St.	3		0-3
San Diego St.	3		0-3
Charleston	2		0-2
VCU	2		0-1*
Northern Kentucky	1		2-1 no deep
Oral Roberts	1		2-1 no deep
Texas A&M-CC	1		0-1
Arizona	1		1 Swt16
Drake	1		1-1 no deep
Indiana	1		1-1 no deep
Memphis	1		1-1 no deep
Northwestern	1		1-1 no deep
Utah St.	1		1-1 no deep
Kent St.	1		0-1
Missouri	1		0-1
Montana St.	1		0-1
Princeton	1		0-1
UCSB	1		0-1
Kennesaw St.	0		0
UNC Asheville	0		0
Duke	0		0
Fairleigh Dickinson	0		0
Florida Atlantic	0		0
Furman	0		0
Howard	0		0
Kansas St.	0		0
Penn St.	0		0
SE Missouri St.	0		0
Texas	0		0
*Mike Rhoades (VCU) couldn’t play in 2022 tourney due to the Rams having issues with Covid.

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3 or more Upperclassmen in Starting 5

Almost every team in the Dance has 3 or more seniors and juniors starting, due to Covid, and the NCAA granting an additional year of eligibility. Only the following teams fail to meet this criteria.

Alabama

Connecticut

Creighton

Duke

Florida Atlantic

Miami (Fla)

USC

VCU

---

Note that two of the key contenders, Alabama and Connecticut do not meet this criteria. Kentucky won the 2012 National Championship without an upperclassmen starting.

---

Two Front Court Starters Combine for 20 PPG/12 RPG

A team with two starters combining for 20 & 12 is a team that tends to score the most consistently in the NCAA Tournament. These players can get a lot of garbage points, which in the Big Dance, is vital.

Team	20:12
Alabama	YES
Arizona	YES
Auburn	YES
Connecticut	YES
Creighton	YES
Duke	YES
Gonzaga	YES
Houston	YES
Indiana	YES
Iona	YES
Iowa	YES
Kansas	YES
Kansas St.	YES
Kentucky	YES
Louisiana	YES
Maryland	YES
Memphis	YES
Mississippi St.	YES
Montana St.	YES
Nevada	YES
Oral Roberts	YES
Princeton	YES
Providence	YES
Purdue	YES
Texas A&M-CC	YES
Texas Southern	YES
UCSB	YES
UNC Asheville	YES
Utah St.	YES
VCU	YES
Xavier	YES
Arizona St.	NO
Arkansas	NO
Baylor	NO
Boise St.	NO
Charleston	NO
Colgate	NO
Drake	NO
Fairleigh Dickinson	NO
Florida Atlantic	NO
Furman	NO
Grand Canyon	NO
Howard	NO
Illinois	NO
Iowa St.	NO
Kennesaw St.	NO
Kent St.	NO
Marquette	NO
Miami (Fla)	NO
Michigan St.	NO
Missouri	NO
North Carolina St.	NO
Northern Kentucky	NO
Northwestern	NO
Penn St.	NO
Pittsburgh	NO
Saint Mary’s	NO
San Diego St.	NO
SE Missouri St.	NO
TCU	NO
Tennessee	NO
Texas	NO
Texas A&M	NO
UCLA	NO
USC	NO
Vermont	NO
Virginia	NO
West Virginia	NO

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3 Or More Double Figure Scorers

Team	DBL
Arizona	5
Boise St.	5
Charleston	5
Colgate	5
Creighton	5
Iowa	5
Providence	5
Utah St.	5
Arkansas	4
Auburn	4
Baylor	4
Fairleigh Dickinson	4
Furman	4
Gonzaga	4
Houston	4
Kansas	4
Kentucky	4
Marquette	4
Maryland	4
Miami (Fla)	4
North Carolina St.	4
Pittsburgh	4
Saint Mary’s	4
Texas	4
Texas Southern	4
West Virginia	4
Xavier	4
Alabama	3
Connecticut	3
Florida Atlantic	3
Grand Canyon	3
Howard	3
Iona	3
Kansas St.	3
Kennesaw St.	3
Kent St.	3
Louisiana	3
Michigan St.	3
Missouri	3
Montana St.	3
Nevada	3
Oral Roberts	3
Penn St.	3
Princeton	3
SE Missouri St.	3
TCU	3
Tennessee	3
Texas A&M-CC	3
UCLA	3
VCU	3
Vermont	3
Virginia	3
Arizona St.	2
Drake	2
Duke	2
Illinois	2
Indiana	2
Iowa St.	2
Memphis	2
Northern Kentucky	2
Northwestern	2
Purdue	2
Texas A&M	2
UCSB	2
UNC Asheville	2
USC	2
Mississippi St.	1
San Diego St.	1

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Who Has “The Look?”

Unlike most years, the 2023 edition of March Madness has NO single team that stands out above all others. A half-dozen teams possess many of the criteria that past national champions had, but none have across-the-board positive resumes.

If you have read prior publications here, you know how leery I am of teams coached by Gene Keady proteges, and Big Ten teams in general. The style of play in that league, especially with Purdue, has not been the way to win national titles for many years. Michigan State was the last Big Ten team to win the championship 23 years ago, the only time a Big Ten team has cut down the nets in the last 31 tournaments. It will eventually happen again one year, but picking the Boilermakers to win six games with little ability to force turnovers, get cheap fast break points, and consistently hit the 3-point shot makes it hard for us to see Purdue going all the way.

Connecticut has a lot in its favor, namely the top three most important criteria. But, the Huskies did not win their regular season or conference tournament championship. Marquette has issues with their R+T Ratings. Alabama is young and inexperienced, but the Crimson Tide fits almost all other criteria. However, their offensive efficiency is a tad lower than what a typical national champion has.

Let’s go through the bracket and see how the individual matchups look. That will find us our choice this year. You may see different results based on the criteria above, so don’t take our picks as Gospel. We tend to choose very few upsets until the later rounds when the criteria shows the lower seed to be superior. We will list the teams we feel have a chance to upset favored teams in the early rounds.

---

Round of 64

Winner	Loser
Alabama	Play-In Winner (TAMCC)
West Virginia	Maryland
San Diego St.	Charleston
Virginia	Furman (Upset possible)
Creighton	North Carolina St.
Baylor	UCSB
Utah St.	Missouri (Bad R+T)
Arizona	Princeton
Purdue	Play-in Winner (FDU)
Memphis	Florida Atlantic
Duke	Oral Roberts (close game?)
Tennessee	Louisiana (close game?)
Kentucky	Providence (Upset possible)
Kansas St.	Montana St.
Michigan St.	USC (close game)
Marquette	Vermont
Houston	Northern Kentucky
Auburn	Iowa
Miami (Fla)	Drake (exciting game!)
Indiana	Kent St.
Play-in Winner (Pittsburgh)	Iowa St. (Upset)
Xavier	Kennesaw St.
Texas A&M	Penn St. (neg. R+T)
Texas	Colgate
Kansas	Howard
Arkansas	Illinois
Saint Mary’s	VCU
Connecticut	Iona
TCU	Play-in Winner (Nevada)
Gonzaga	Grand Canyon
Boise St.	Northwestern
UCLA	UNC Asheville

---

Round of 32

Winner	Loser
Alabama	West Virginia (close game?)
San Diego St.	Virginia
Baylor	Creighton (close game)
Arizona	Utah St.
Purdue	Memphis
Duke	Tennessee
Kentucky	Kansas St.
Marquette	Michigan St. (close game)
Houston	Auburn
Miami (Fla)	Indiana (close game)
Xavier	Pittsburgh
Texas	Texas A&M (close game)
Kansas	Arkansas
Connecticut	Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga	TCU (close game)
UCLA	Boise St.

---

Sweet 16

Winner	Loser
Alabama	San Diego St.
Arizona	Baylor
Purdue	Duke (could be brutal)
Marquette	Kentucky
Miami (Fla)	Houston (Sasser injury???)
Texas	Xavier
Connecticut	Kansas (close Game)
Gonzaga	UCLA (close game)

If Marcus Sasser is healthy, Houston would be favored, but my information tells me he will not be healthy by this time. UCLA also has multiple injury issues.

---

Elite 8

Winner	Loser
Arizona	Alabama
Purdue	Marquette (R+T favors PU)
Texas	Miami (Fla)
Connecticut	Gonzaga

Arizona gets the nod over Alabama due to having more experienced, game-tested veterans, while Alabama is led by underclassmen. Marquette lacks the R+T rating to win a close game, and we can’t see them blowing Purdue off the floor, which is how they would have to win this game. Texas and Miami are evenly matched, but the Longhorns have just a little better criteria. Gonzaga’s defense isn’t as strong as in recent years, even though their offense is the best in the nation. UConn has much better defensive criteria and almost as good offensive criteria.

---

Final Four

Winner	Loser
Purdue	Arizona
Connecticut	Texas

It comes down to the two teams that best fit the most important part of the criteria. Neither the Boilermakers nor the Huskies have a typical national champions resume, but these two teams best fit that criteria.

Purdue’s main Achilles’ Heel is their inability to force turnovers against opponents. They have to buck a long trend and win half-court possession games, something that has not worked in the Final Four since Bobby Knight led Indiana to two championships in the 1980s. However, Purdue’s R+T ratings combined with their efficiency and schedule strength overrule the other liabilities. We don’t personally have total faith in the Boilermakers breaking the 43-year curse of Keadyball, where PU can win playing a halfcourt game against regular season oppoents, but just like Moneyball hasn’t worked for the Oakland A’s in the playoffs, Keadyball does not work in the NCAA Tournament. If it is every going to work, it’s going to work this year, when the Boilermakers have the most dominant player in the nation. Note that PU had the most dominant player in the nation in 1994 in Glenn Robinson, and the Boilermakers were ousted in the Elite 8 (the only Elite 8 appearance since Lee Rose lead PU to the 1980 Final Four).

Connecticut has better metrics than Texas, but the Huskies won neither the Big East regular season or conference tournament championship. National champions tend to win at least one if not both. The last team to cut the nets without cutting them in the regular season was (wait for it)–Connecticut in 2014.

---

National Championship Game

Winner	Loser
Purdue	Connecticut

Can the curse be broken? If you saw the final minutes of the Big Ten Championship Game on Sunday, you saw a Boilermaker team that wilted against Penn State’s full court press defense. The Nittany Lions don’t have a fantastic pressure defensive team, so a team that can play a havoc style of defense might be able to take Purdue out of its game plan. Additionally, Purdue has been weaker than average from behind the 3-point line. They keep winning because they have the top player in the nation in the paint. A dominant big man has not led his team to the national championship in many years, and there are many examples of said post player’s team losing to a quicker, smaller team.

There are two parts to this equation. There has to be a team good enough to exploit the power team’s liabilities. What we see here is an ideal draw for the Boilermakers. The teams that can best employ the tactics needed to stop Purdue are mostly on the other side of the bracket, and the few in their bracket that might be able to stop PU are likely to be eliminated before their line on the bracket coincided with Purdue’s line on the bracket. Additionally, you can know for sure that Purdue has spent extra time in practice preparing for opposing teams to try to pressure Purdue’s guards. Braden Smith and Mason Gillis will need to step up and play their best ball of the season, and that is not a given, but we cannot see Purdue succumbing to the press like they did against Penn State. If teams don’t practice pressing constantly, they aren’t going to be that good using the defense, and if Purdue can break some presses for easy baskets, that ploy will be discontinued.

Connecticut has something going in their favor, but it is quirky. Twice before, the Huskies won the national championship in outlier style. In point of fact, their two national championships in 2011 and 2014 are the only outliers to the PiRate Ratings Criteria in the 21st Century. They are similar in style to Purdue. Don’t count on the Huskies to force opposing offenses out of their normal style of play with pressure defense.

So, there you have it. We are going against our personal biases and relying on the metrics, and the metrics say that Purdue is going to end their curse. Maybe it is 2004 again, but will any Purdue player appear with a bloody sock? The Boston Red Sox broke their 86-year curse by dominating in the new 21st Century metrics. Purdue has the 7th best offensive efficiency and 26th best defensive efficiency ratings with a schedule strength almost nine points above average.

Connecticut has the 6th best offensive efficiency and the 18th best defensive efficiency with a schedule strength that is eight points above average. You can’t go wrong picking the Huskies to go all the way, and if you have two choices to fill out a bracket, you might consider splitting your vote with Purdue and Connecticut. But, officially, our choice to cut the nets is Purdue.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Friday, March 10, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama	Mississippi St.	9.7
Alabama A&M	Texas Southern	-0.5
Arizona	Arizona St.	7.3
Boise St.	Utah St.	-1.2
Cincinnati	Temple	5.3
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tennessee	9.3
Grambling	Jackson St.	6.8
Houston	East Carolina	21.0
Howard	Maryland Eastern Shore	1.2
Indiana	Maryland	-0.3
Iona	Niagara	12.6
Kansas	Iowa St.	3.9
Kent St.	Akron	2.8
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	5.8
Marquette	Connecticut	-3.5
Memphis	Central Florida	3.6
Miami (Fla)	Duke	-1.6
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	1.9
Missouri	Tennessee	-8.9
North Carolina Central	Norfolk St.	0.2
North Texas	UAB	-0.8
Northwestern	Penn St.	0.5
Purdue	Rutgers	4.5
Saint Peter’s	Marist	0.0
Sam Houston St.	Grand Canyon	4.4
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	9.0
Texas	TCU	3.5
Texas A&M	Arkansas	-1.5
Toledo	Ohio	4.6
Tulane	Wichita St.	0.7
UC Santa Barbara	UC Riverside	1.8
UC-Irvine	Cal St. Fullerton	2.8
UCLA	Oregon	7.9
Utah Valley	Southern Utah	2.8
Virginia	Clemson	1.3
Xavier	Creighton	-1.5

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Thursday, March 9, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Akron	Buffalo	5.4
Arizona	Stanford	9.0
Auburn	Arkansas	-1.2
Ball St.	Ohio	-1.3
Baylor	Iowa St.	1.9
Boise St.	UNLV	5.3
Cal St. Fullerton	Hawaii	0.1
Central Florida	SMU	9.1
Clemson	North Carolina St.	-1.8
Connecticut	Providence	7.4
Creighton	Villanova	5.7
Dayton	Saint Joseph’s	9.2
Duke	Pittsburgh	3.5
Florida	Mississippi St.	-0.2
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	11.4
Fordham	La Salle	4.0
Illinois	Penn St.	2.6
Iowa	Ohio St.	2.2
Jackson St.	Prairie View	-1.9
Kansas	West Virginia	2.8
Kansas St.	TCU	0.2
Kent St.	Northern Illinois	11.6
Marquette	St. John’s	7.4
Maryland	Minnesota	14.4
Maryland Eastern Shore	Morgan St.	3.0
Miami (Fla)	Wake Forest	4.8
Michigan	Rutgers	-0.4
Middle Tennessee	Charlotte	-0.6
Nevada	San Jose St.	5.6
Norfolk St.	Coppin St.	10.0
North Texas	Louisiana Tech	7.6
Oregon	Washington St.	1.8
Quinnipiac	Marist	6.9
Saint Louis	George Mason	2.9
Sam Houston St.	Cal Baptist	7.0
San Diego St.	Colorado St.	9.1
Seattle	Grand Canyon	-2.0
Siena	Niagara	3.4
South Florida	East Carolina	3.1
Southern	Alabama A&M	3.2
Southern Utah	Utah Tech	4.4
Tennessee	Mississippi	13.7
Texas	Oklahoma St.	5.6
Toledo	Miami (O)	12.7
UAB	Rice	11.6
UC Riverside	UC Davis	0.4
UC Santa Barbara	Cal Poly	10.4
UC-Irvine	Cal St. Bakersfield	11.3
UCLA	Colorado	9.4
USC	Arizona St.	2.3
Utah St.	New Mexico	2.7
Utah Valley	Tarleton St.	6.3
Vanderbilt	LSU	5.0
VCU	Davidson	5.8
Virginia	North Carolina	-0.6
Wichita St.	Tulsa	12.5
Xavier	DePaul	7.7

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, February 25, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Abilene Christian	Utah Valley	-3.8
Akron	Western Michigan	15.0
Alabama	Arkansas	8.8
Alabama St.	Alabama A&M	0.1
Albany	NJIT	0.0
Alcorn St.	Prairie View	3.8
Arizona	Arizona St.	11.0
Baylor	Texas	1.5
Bethune-Cookman	Southern U.	-6.2
Binghamton	Maine	1.7
Boston U.	Lehigh	3.1
Bowling Green	Kent St.	-11.4
Bryant	Vermont	-1.1
Bucknell	Lafayette	0.5
BYU	San Francisco	5.6
Cal Poly	UC Davis	-6.3
Cal St. Bakersfield	Cal St. Fullerton	-6.4
California	Washington St.	-10.3
Central Connecticut St.	Sacred Heart	2.1
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	-2.2
Charleston	Stony Brook	19.8
Charleston Southern	Presbyterian	4.7
Charlotte	Rice	6.5
Columbia	Brown	-8.8
Coppin St.	Maryland Eastern Shore	-4.2
Dayton	George Mason	10.0
Denver	Omaha	4.4
Detroit	Wright St.	1.6
Duke	Virginia Tech	6.2
East Carolina	Houston	-19.8
East Tennessee St.	UNC Greensboro	-5.5
Eastern Illinois	Tennessee Tech	-1.5
Eastern Michigan	Ball St.	-7.3
Elon	Delaware	-3.2
Fairleigh Dickinson	St. Francis (NY)	6.3
Florida A&M	Grambling	-8.8
Florida Atlantic	UTEP	13.9
Florida Intl.	UTSA	8.0
Fordham	Rhode Island	7.4
George Washington	La Salle	2.5
Georgia	Missouri	-3.6
Georgia Tech	Louisville	7.8
Gonzaga	Saint Mary’s	4.8
Green Bay	Purdue Ft. Wayne	-11.3
Harvard	Princeton	0.0
Hawaii	UC Irvine	0.4
Hofstra	Northeastern	14.7
Holy Cross	Army	-4.1
Idaho St.	Eastern Washington	-5.9
Incarnate Word	Texas A&M-Commerce	-1.6
Iowa	Michigan St.	2.7
Iowa St.	Oklahoma	7.1
IUPUI	Youngstown St.	-16.7
Jackson St.	Texas Southern	1.6
Kansas	West Virginia	7.5
Kentucky	Auburn	2.1
Lamar	New Orleans	0.4
Lindenwood	Little Rock	1.0
Long Beach St.	Cal St. Northridge	12.0
Long Island	Merrimack	-8.8
Longwood	UNC Asheville	3.1
Loyola (MD)	American	-0.6
Marquette	DePaul	16.4
Mercer	The Citadel	7.2
Miami (Fla)	Florida St.	16.2
Miami (O)	Ohio	-6.7
Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech	3.9
Milwaukee	Cleveland St.	-0.4
Mississippi	LSU	4.7
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	0.8
Mississippi Valley St.	Arkansas Pine Bluff	-2.1
Montana	Sacramento St.	6.2
Montana St.	Portland St.	9.3
Morehead St.	UT Martin	3.2
Morgan St.	Delaware St.	9.0
Navy	Colgate	-1.6
Nebraska	Minnesota	10.5
New Mexico	San Diego St.	-0.6
Nicholls St.	Houston Christian	11.4
North Carolina	Virginia	2.9
North Carolina A&T	Hampton	6.1
North Carolina Central	Howard	5.8
North Carolina St.	Clemson	6.5
North Dakota	St. Thomas (MN)	-2.7
North Dakota St.	Western Illinois	6.1
Northern Colorado	Northern Arizona	3.0
Oakland	Northern Kentucky	-2.3
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	1.0
Oregon St.	Oregon	-9.2
Pacific	Portland	0.2
Penn	Dartmouth	10.4
Pepperdine	Loyola Marymount	-1.8
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	6.3
Purdue	Indiana	6.4
Radford	Campbell	5.8
Saint Louis	Loyola (Chi.)	11.2
Sam Houston St.	Southern Utah	5.6
Samford	Furman	-0.8
San Diego	Santa Clara	-4.9
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-5.9
SIU Edwardsville	Southeast Missouri St.	3.4
South Carolina St.	Norfolk St.	-8.9
South Dakota	UMKC	1.1
South Dakota St.	Oral Roberts	-5.0
South Florida	SMU	5.0
Southeastern Louisiana	McNeese St.	8.0
St. Francis (PA)	Wagner	0.3
St. John’s	Connecticut	-7.8
Tennessee	South Carolina	23.0
Tennessee St.	Southern Indiana	2.2
Texas A&M-CC	Northwestern St.	3.6
Texas Tech	TCU	0.0
Toledo	Buffalo	9.2
UC San Diego	UC Santa Barbara	-5.7
UMass Lowell	New Hampshire	10.2
UNC Wilmington	Towson	0.8
USC Upstate	Gardner-Webb	-2.4
UT Arlington	Utah Tech	-0.5
UT-Rio Grande Valley	Tarleton St.	-3.3
Utah	USC	1.3
Vanderbilt	Florida	-0.9
Villanova	Creighton	-3.8
Wake Forest	Notre Dame	9.2
Weber St.	Idaho	7.7
Western Carolina	VMI	10.1
Western Kentucky	UAB	-6.1
William & Mary	Monmouth	6.9
Winthrop	High Point	6.1
Wofford	Chattanooga	-0.2
Yale	Cornell	8.0

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, February 18, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Akron	Buffalo	8.2
Alabama	Georgia	19.8
Alabama A&M	Bethune-Cookman	5.7
Alabama St.	Florida A&M	6.2
American	Lehigh	4.1
Appalachian St.	Old Dominion	2.5
Arizona	Colorado	10.1
Arizona St.	Utah	1.8
Arkansas	Florida	5.9
Arkansas St.	Georgia St.	-0.8
Army	Lafayette	3.6
Austin Peay	North Florida	-2.0
Boston U.	Bucknell	2.9
Bowling Green	Toledo	-9.0
Cal St. Fullerton	Cal Poly	11.4
Campbell	Presbyterian	8.3
Central Connecticut St.	Stonehill College	2.3
Central Michigan	Ohio	-7.6
Charleston Southern	Winthrop	-1.2
Chattanooga	UNC Greensboro	-0.3
Coastal Carolina	Texas St.	0.1
Colgate	Holy Cross	16.5
Columbia	Dartmouth	-4.1
Connecticut	Seton Hall	11.1
Coppin St.	Howard	-5.6
Cornell	Harvard	6.5
Davidson	Saint Joseph’s	4.9
Delaware	UNC Wilmington	-1.9
Delaware St.	North Carolina Central	-10.2
Denver	South Dakota	1.9
Eastern Kentucky	North Alabama	6.5
Eastern Washington	Northern Colorado	8.7
Florida Gulf Coast	Stetson	2.8
Florida St.	Boston College	3.1
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	0.2
George Mason	La Salle	6.1
Grambling	Southern U.	4.8
Hampton	Drexel	-7.7
High Point	USC Upstate	-0.5
Houston Christian	Lamar	2.0
Idaho	Northern Arizona	1.1
Indiana	Illinois	3.6
Indiana St.	Illinois St.	12.7
Jackson St.	Alcorn St.	0.2
Jacksonville St.	Liberty	-10.6
James Madison	Louisiana	4.3
Kansas	Baylor	3.9
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	2.0
Kennesaw St.	Queens	7.0
Kentucky	Tennessee	-4.5
Lipscomb	Jacksonville	4.8
Little Rock	Eastern Illinois	3.8
Long Beach St.	Hawaii	1.5
Long Island	St. Francis (PA)	-6.5
Longwood	Radford	3.1
Louisiana Tech	Charlotte	1.9
Louisville	Clemson	-11.0
Loyola Marymount	Pacific	8.6
LSU	South Carolina	9.2
Maine	Albany	8.3
Marshall	Troy	8.1
Maryland Eastern Shore	South Carolina St.	9.3
McNeese St.	Texas A&M-CC	-6.2
Mercer	Western Carolina	3.3
Miami (Fla)	Wake Forest	7.2
Michigan	Michigan St.	0.9
Middle Tennessee	Florida Intl.	7.9
Minnesota	Penn St.	-8.9
Mississippi	Mississippi St.	-2.9
Missouri	Texas A&M	0.5
Missouri St.	Northern Iowa	4.7
Monmouth	Elon	-0.8
Montana St.	Montana	17.7
Morehead St.	Lindenwood	9.0
Murray St.	Evansville	11.6
Navy	Loyola (MD)	10.9
New Hampshire	UMBC	-0.4
Nicholls St.	Incarnate Word	11.0
NJIT	Vermont	-10.0
Norfolk St.	Morgan St.	9.8
Northeastern	William & Mary	4.2
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)	5.5
Northwestern St.	New Orleans	14.1
Omaha	South Dakota St.	-6.0
Oral Roberts	North Dakota St.	13.6
Penn	Brown	4.0
Pepperdine	Gonzaga	-15.5
Portland	Santa Clara	-2.8
Portland St.	Weber St.	1.4
Prairie View	Arkansas Pine Bluff	6.0
Princeton	Yale	-1.9
Providence	Villanova	6.1
Rhode Island	Massachusetts	1.6
Rice	Western Kentucky	1.5
Robert Morris	Milwaukee	1.2
Sacramento St.	Idaho St.	3.8
Sacred Heart	Merrimack	3.0
Saint Louis	Duquesne	3.7
Saint Mary’s	BYU	10.8
Seattle	Utah Valley	-2.0
South Alabama	Louisiana Monroe	10.2
South Florida	Tulane	-2.1
Southeast Missouri St.	Southern Indiana	2.4
Southern Miss.	Georgia Southern	8.6
St. John’s	Creighton	-5.6
St. Thomas (MN)	Western Illinois	6.9
Stephen F. Austin	UT Arlington	9.9
Stony Brook	Hofstra	-12.2
Syracuse	Duke	-1.8
Tarleton St.	Sam Houston	-5.0
TCU	Oklahoma St.	4.0
Tennessee St.	SIU Edwardsville	-0.7
Tennessee Tech	UT Martin	0.1
Texas	Oklahoma	10.3
Texas A&M-Commerce	Southeastern Louisiana	0.6
Texas Southern	Mississippi Valley St.	9.1
The Citadel	Wofford	-3.0
Towson	North Carolina A&T	12.0
UC Irvine	UC Davis	7.7
UC Riverside	UC Santa Barbara	-0.5
UC San Diego	Cal St. Northridge	4.0
UCLA	California	25.6
UMass Lowell	Binghamton	11.6
UMKC	North Dakota	3.7
UNC Asheville	Gardner-Webb	2.8
USC	Stanford	6.9
Utah St.	Nevada	3.9
UTEP	North Texas	-6.3
UTSA	UAB	-15.0
Vanderbilt	Auburn	-4.5
VCU	Fordham	7.5
Virginia	Notre Dame	15.3
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	2.9
VMI	Samford	-10.7
Wagner	Fairleigh Dickinson	5.0
Washington	Oregon St.	9.1
West Virginia	Texas Tech	6.0
Western Michigan	Ball St.	-7.3
Wisconsin	Rutgers	-2.0
Xavier	DePaul	15.1
Youngstown St.	Green Bay	23.2

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/17/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	Texas	Baylor	UCLA	Tennessee
3	Arizona	Marquette	Connecticut	Virginia
4	Iowa St.	Gonzaga	Xavier	Kansas St.
5	Indiana	Miami (Fla)	Saint Mary’s	San Diego St.
6	Creighton	TCU	Northwestern	Michigan St.
7	Iowa	Maryland	Illinois	Providence
8	Missouri	Duke	Auburn	Rutgers
9	Oklahoma St.	Nevada	North Carolina St.	Boise St.
10	West Virginia	Florida Atlantic	Arkansas	Texas A&M
11	Pittsburgh	Kentucky	Mississippi St.	Memphis	Wisconsin	USC
12	Charleston	Oral Roberts	Toledo	Drake
13	VCU	Southern Miss.	Liberty	Utah Valley
14	UCSB	Yale	Samford	Iona
15	Colgate	E. Washington	Vermont	Youngstown St.
16	UNC Asheville	Morehead St.	Alcorn St.	Northwestern St.	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: West Virginia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Memphis, Wisconsin, USC

First 4 Out: North Carolina, Clemson, Penn St., Oregon

Next 4 Out: New Mexico, Utah St., North Texas, Arizona St.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 16, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Appalachian St.	Texas St.	4.9
Arizona	Utah	9.2
Arizona St.	Colorado	2.4
Arkansas St.	Troy	-7.2
Austin Peay	Jacksonville	-2.7
Bellarmine	North Alabama	3.7
BYU	Santa Clara	5.0
Central Connecticut St.	Wagner	-0.4
Charlotte	Western Kentucky	4.7
Coastal Carolina	Georgia St.	1.5
Denver	South Dakota St.	-5.2
Drexel	UNC Wilmington	0.8
Eastern Kentucky	Central Arkansas	12.4
Eastern Washington	Northern Arizona	9.5
Elon	Charleston	-13.7
Hartford	Merrimack	-6.0
Hofstra	Hampton	19.0
Idaho	Northern Colorado	-0.6
Iowa	Ohio St.	5.2
Jacksonville St.	Queens	0.4
James Madison	Old Dominion	8.6
Kennesaw St.	Liberty	-5.4
Lamar	Houston Christian	2.0
Lipscomb	North Florida	6.5
Little Rock	Southern Indiana	-2.0
Louisiana	Louisiana Monroe	11.5
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	-3.0
Loyola Marymount	Gonzaga	-8.3
Marshall	Georgia Southern	12.6
Maryland	Purdue	-0.9
McNeese St.	Incarnate Word	4.5
Memphis	Central Florida	6.0
Middle Tennessee	Florida Atlantic	-5.6
Morehead St.	Tennessee St.	4.6
Nicholls St.	Texas A&M-CC	1.1
Northeastern	Monmouth	8.7
Northwestern St.	Southeastern Louisiana	7.3
Omaha	South Dakota	0.8
Oral Roberts	North Dakota	18.9
Pacific	San Francisco	-3.3
Portland St.	Idaho St.	4.1
Radford	UNC Asheville	3.3
Rice	UTSA	11.7
Robert Morris	Green Bay	14.8
Sacramento St.	Weber St.	1.0
Sacred Heart	Fairleigh Dickinson	3.0
San Diego	Saint Mary’s	-13.9
SMU	Houston	-17.8
South Alabama	Southern Miss.	-1.2
Southeast Missouri St.	Eastern Illinois	7.9
St Francis (NY)	St. Francis (PA)	0.1
Stonehill College	LIU	11.9
Stony Brook	William & Mary	1.7
Temple	Wichita St.	4.1
Tennessee Tech	Lindenwood	6.0
Texas A&M-Commerce	New Orleans	8.8
Towson	Delaware	7.3
UCLA	Stanford	15.1
UMKC	North Dakota St.	0.5
USC	California	16.6
UT Martin	SIU Edwardsville	0.9
UTEP	UAB	-7.1
Washington St.	Oregon St.	12.4
Youngstown St.	Milwaukee	8.3

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 9, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Cal St. Bakersfield	Cal St. Northridge	4.0
California	Arizona	-17.5
Central Arkansas	Lipscomb	-7.6
Coastal Carolina	Marshall	-9.7
Eastern Illinois	UT Martin	-4.2
Florida Atlantic	Rice	13.6
Florida Intl.	Louisiana Tech	-2.3
Georgia Southern	James Madison	-6.7
Georgia St.	Old Dominion	-1.3
Gonzaga	San Francisco	14.1
Green Bay	Oakland	-10.6
Idaho St.	Montana	-1.7
Incarnate Word	Lamar	6.0
Jacksonville	Stetson	0.5
Jacksonville St.	Kennesaw St.	-4.1
Liberty	Bellarmine	15.2
Lindenwood	SIU Edwarsville	-5.7
Little Rock	Morehead St.	-2.2
Long Beach St.	UC Santa Barbara	-0.4
Long Island	Fairleigh Dickinson	-8.1
Louisiana Monroe	Appalachian St.	-2.4
Loyola Marymount	Saint Mary’s	-7.7
McNeese St.	Southeastern Louisiana	-1.8
Merrimack	Stonehill College	1.9
Milwaukee	Detroit	2.0
Nicholls St.	New Orleans	11.7
North Alabama	Austin Peay	4.4
North Dakota	Denver	1.5
North Dakota St.	Omaha	7.0
North Florida	Florida Gulf Coast	-1.6
North Texas	UAB	1.1
Northern Arizona	Sacramento St.	0.2
Northern Colorado	Portland St.	1.0
Ohio St.	Northwestern	5.7
Oregon	USC	2.6
Oregon St.	UCLA	-17.0
Pepperdine	BYU	-6.7
Portland	Pacific	5.2
Purdue	Iowa	7.2
Queens	Eastern Kentucky	1.3
Radford	Gardner-Webb	3.1
Santa Clara	San Diego	10.6
Southern Miss.	Louisiana	2.6
Southern Utah	Tarleton St.	7.2
St. Francis (NY)	Wagner	-3.6
St. Francis (PA)	Sacred Heart	1.3
St. Thomas (MN)	Oral Roberts	-9.3
Stanford	Arizona St.	0.3
Tennessee St.	Southeast Missouri St.	-0.5
Tennessee Tech	Southern Indiana	-8.5
Texas A&M-CC	Houston Christian	14.0
Texas A&M-Commerce	Northwestern St.	-3.2
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	8.0
Troy	South Alabama	2.8
UC Irvine	Cal Poly	15.6
UC Riverside	UC Davis	1.9
UT-Rio Grande Valley	UT Arlington	1.9
UTEP	Charlotte	-1.2
Weber St.	Montana St.	-2.8
Western Illinois	UMKC	1.9
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	-0.1

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, February 4, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama A&M	Southern U.	-6.0
Alabama St.	Grambling	-6.0
Albany	Vermont	-9.9
Alcorn St.	Arkansas Pine Bluff	6.8
American	Colgate	-4.1
Appalachian St.	James Madison	-3.4
Arizona	Oregon St.	20.6
Arizona St.	Oregon	1.8
Arkansas St.	Coastal Carolina	-1.9
Austin Peay	Queens	-3.3
Baylor	Texas Tech	8.1
Bellarmine	Jacksonville St.	3.4
Belmont	Illinois St.	8.9
Boston College	Syracuse	-2.8
Bowling Green	Northern Illinois	3.3
Bryant	New Hampshire	6.4
Bucknell	Army	-1.2
BYU	Pacific	12.9
Cal Baptist	Abilene Christian	4.8
Cal Poly	Hawaii	-6.7
Cal St. Fullerton	UC Riverside	2.9
Cal St. Northridge	UC Santa Barbara	-10.8
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-3.5
Cincinnati	Central Florida	4.4
Clemson	Miami (Fla.)	-0.1
Colorado St.	Utah St.	-4.4
Creighton	Villanova	10.3
Dartmouth	Yale	-8.8
Delaware	Charleston	-6.5
Delaware St.	Morgan St.	-5.1
Denver	St. Thomas (MN)	-1.3
Detroit	Purdue Ft. Wayne	0.8
Duke	North Carolina	3.1
East Carolina	SMU	0.9
Eastern Illinois	Tennessee St.	-1.6
Eastern Kentucky	Kennesaw St.	0.2
Fairleigh Dickinson	Wagner	0.9
Florida Gulf Coast	North Alabama	8.6
Furman	Wofford	10.6
Gardner-Webb	Presbyterian	12.4
George Washington	Duquesne	-0.8
Georgetown	Connecticut	-16.1
Georgia St.	Southern Miss.	-6.2
Grand Canyon	Stephen F. Austin	3.5
Hampton	Norfolk St.	-8.0
Hartford	Chicago St.	-7.5
Harvard	Brown	4.1
High Point	Charleston Southern	0.0
Hofstra	Stony Brook	15.5
Holy Cross	Navy	-5.4
Houston Christian	Nicholls St.	-7.0
Idaho St.	Weber St.	-1.0
Illinois Chicago	Evansville	8.0
Indiana	Purdue	-0.6
Indiana St.	Murray St.	5.6
Iowa	Illinois	2.5
Iowa St.	Kansas	0.1
IUPUI	Green Bay	3.3
Jackson St.	Mississippi Valley St.	9.4
Kansas St.	Texas	-0.4
Kentucky	Florida	3.4
Lafayette	Lehigh	2.2
Lamar	Northwestern St.	-10.6
Lindenwood	UT Martin	-3.7
Lipscomb	Liberty	-7.3
Little Rock	SIU Edwardsville	-4.5
Long Beach St.	UC Irvine	-2.0
Longwood	Campbell	7.2
Louisiana	Marshall	-0.7
Louisiana Monroe	South Alabama	-2.7
Louisville	Florida St.	-3.8
Loyola (Chi.)	George Mason	-2.9
Loyola (MD)	Boston U.	-1.3
LSU	Alabama	-13.4
Maine	UMBC	-2.0
Marquette	Butler	14.5
Massachusetts	Davidson	2.0
Memphis	Tulane	8.0
Mercer	VMI	9.0
Merrimack	St. Francis (PA)	2.2
Middle Tennessee St.	UTSA	13.6
Minnesota	Maryland	-10.3
Mississippi St.	Missouri	2.3
Monmouth	Drexel	-9.2
Montana	Northern Arizona	6.9
Montana St.	Northern Colorado	11.0
New Mexico St.	Seattle	-0.5
New Orleans	Incarnate Word	1.2
North Carolina St.	Georgia Tech	14.8
North Florida	Jacksonville	-0.6
Northeastern	Elon	6.3
Northern Iowa	Bradley	-3.5
Notre Dame	Wake Forest	-3.2
Oakland	Cleveland St.	-1.1
Ohio	Miami (O)	10.3
Oklahoma St.	TCU	0.3
Old Dominion	Georgia Southern	5.0
Omaha	Western Illinois	-0.1
Penn	Cornell	-0.3
Pepperdine	Portland	0.4
Portland St.	Eastern Washington	-3.0
Prairie View	Bethune-Cookman	8.4
Princeton	Columbia	17.6
Radford	Winthrop	7.5
Rice	North Texas	-4.1
Robert Morris	Wright St.	-0.7
Rutgers	Michigan St.	6.5
Sacramento St.	Idaho	7.3
Sacred Heart	Central Connecticut St.	3.1
Saint Mary’s	Gonzaga	2.0
Samford	East Tennessee St.	7.1
San Diego	Loyola Marymount	-4.9
San Francisco	Santa Clara	3.3
San Jose St.	Wyoming	3.3
South Carolina	Arkansas	-15.3
South Dakota	North Dakota	4.8
South Dakota St.	North Dakota St.	6.5
Southeastern Louisiana	Texas A&M-CC	-0.7
Southern Indiana	Morehead St.	3.2
St. Bonaventure	Dayton	-5.7
St. Francis (NY)	Stonehill College	-0.3
Stetson	Central Arkansas	11.8
Tarleton St.	UT-Rio Grande Valley	8.2
Tennessee	Auburn	10.0
Tennessee Tech	Southeast Missouri St.	-0.4
Texas A&M	Georgia	9.8
Texas A&M-Commerce	McNeese St.	5.6
Texas Southern	Florida A&M	9.4
The Citadel	UNC Greensboro	-8.7
Toledo	Central Michigan	15.5
Troy	Texas St.	6.1
UAB	Florida Intl.	14.5
UC San Diego	Cal St. Bakersfield	3.3
UCLA	Washington St.	12.2
UMass Lowell	NJIT	12.1
UMKC	Oral Roberts	-10.5
USC	Washington	9.6
USC Upstate	UNC Asheville	-4.7
UT Arlington	Sam Houston St.	-11.1
Utah Tech	Southern Utah	-3.5
Valparaiso	Drake	-9.8
Vanderbilt	Mississippi	3.0
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-0.8
West Virginia	Oklahoma	5.9
Western Carolina	Chattanooga	-2.8
Western Kentucky	UTEP	3.4
Western Michigan	Buffalo	-4.2
William & Mary	UNC Wilmington	-6.7
Xavier	St. John’s	9.6
Youngstown St.	Northern Kentucky	6.2