The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 26, 2021

PiRate Picks For August 28, 2021

Welcome to all the newcomers to the PiRate Ratings site for the 2021-2022 football season. Saturday, we have the fortune of having a dress rehearsal for the college football season. Nine FBS teams will be in action, as one FBS team plays an FCS opponent.

The PiRate Ratings enjoy issuing picks against the spread or money line on Thursdays each week until January. Because we are most concerned with Money Line Parlays, there are only five options to combine games this week, and many of the books do not issue a line for FBS vs. FCS games. So, in a quest to obtain the best odds, there really are just four games.

This presents multiple issues that basically make it close to impossible to issue a real wager, because the options don’t fit our paradigm. Let’s take a look.

First, before we get started, you must know and understand one thing. We offer these selections purely for the fun of it. It is math and not gambling to us. We NEVER bet on sports. We play with a pretend bankroll that never runs out. We wager the same amount of fake currency on every selection–$100. It could just as easily be $5, $10, $1000, $5000, whatever, but $100 is an easy number and typical of many wagers in real life.

Second, we urge you with everything we can say about it to NOT use this weekly feature as betting advice, unless you have legitimate advice or are a professional, and then this becomes a secondary reference.

Third, we hunt around for the best possible odds on our pretend wagers. You may or may not be able to find the same odds we do, because you would have to search at the exact same time we do. Because, we are not limited to just the legal books available to us in our state of Tennessee, where betting is legal, we might pick a parlay based on a sports book that is only for people in Nevada, or New Jersey, or even off shore.

Okay, now that you know the ground rules, here is our specialty–Money Line Parlays. The money line is different from the spread of a game, but the number is the equivalent of a spread. If a team is favored by 7 points, their money line is going to be roughly -330, and if a team is a 7-point underdog, their money line is going to be roughly +250.

How does a Money Line work? If the line is a negative number, if you wager the amount of the negative number and win, you will receive $100 plus the amount you wagered. So, if you wager on a team at -300, and you bet $300, if the bet wins, you will get back $400 (your investment money plus $100). If you lose, you are out the $300. On the other hand, if the line is a positive number, you can win that amount of money with a $100 wager. So, if the line on a team is +300, you can wager $100, and if the team wins, you receive $400 (your investment money plus $300).

In Money Line wagers, all that matters is that the team you picked wins the game, be it by 1 point or 63 points. Obviously, if Alabama is playing Mercer, the odds are going to be such that to win $100, you will have to put up maybe $100,000. So, if you bet $100 on Alabama at -100000, when Alabama wins, you receive $100.01. Would you risk $100,000 to win one penny?

When you wager on more than one money line to win as one bet, this is called a parlay. Let’s say that you like Mississippi State to beat Arkansas and Oklahoma State to beat Texas Tech. Mississippi State’s money line number is -275. Oklahoma State’s money line number is -250. By combining these two wagers into one bet, with $100 riding on the outcome, instead of attempting to win a little more than $36 on MSU and $40 on OSU, by combining the two games into a parlay, you stand to win almost $91 if both teams win. If you bet them individually, you would only win $76, so by combining the two, you win $15 more. Of course, if one team wins and the other loses, your losses would be less by playing the games separately.

The question you most likely wanted to ask while reading the above paragraph is, “Why risk playing two separate games that both teams you selected must win and still not get even money?” Did you ask it? The answer to that question is, “You are correct; why wager $100 to just win $91 and then have to be right twice to cash it?” You can bet a regular game against the spread and get 11-10 odds, just a fraction better than the odds of the parlay above.

The ultimate answer is that we are only looking for parlays that pay better than even money. We really don’t want to play any parlays at less than +120 odds, where we would win $6 for every $5 wagered.

The next question you might have is, “Isn’t finding two teams to win and pay off at +120 going to require me to bet an underdog to win outright?”

Our answer to you is, “Yes, but we don’t look for many two-team money line parlays. Let’s take a look at another example with three teams.

Let’s say that we believe that Washington will beat Oregon State, and the money line is -260.

We also believe that Army will beat Temple, and the money line is -240.

And, we believe that Wisconsin will beat Purdue, and the money line is -250.

If you wager $100 on these three teams to win, and all three teams win, your payout is just under $175 plus the $100 you wagered for almost $275 ($274.62 to be exact.)

Let’s take a look at 5 wagers, where we win two and lose three at these odds

We bet $500 at $100 for 5 wagers.

On the two winning wagers, we receive $275 * 2 or $550.

Invest $500 and win $550 by being right 40% of the time. In one week, we have made a 10% return on an investment. What investment on the Stock Market makes a 10% gain in one week after you have paid the commissions on the trip?

Ah, but here’s the rub: how often can you wager on 5 money line parlays that average +175 and win 40% of the parlays? Most people fall into this trap and only win about one of five of these parlays. At 20% success, you lose $225 a week for a 45% loss. Now, where can you loses 45% in the stock market in one week? We put our real money in high-cap value stocks with durable competitive advantages, long histories of consistent increases in earnings, and long histories of consistent dividend payouts. The pretend money is just fine for football wagering.

By now, you want to know who we are picking in Week 0 of the college football season. Maybe, you have figured it out already. We don’t have any official picks this week, because there are not enough games to come up with a parlay better than +120.

Here is a practice parlay that is not an official pick, but shown here to show you what we mean.

The three games involved are: Nebraska versus Illinois, UCLA versus Hawaii, and UTEP versus New Mexico St.

Let’s say that we think Illinois will upset the Cornhuskers, UCLA will take care of Hawaii, and UTEP will win the big rivalry game.

Here are the three Money Lines for these three games.

Illinois +215 vs. Nebraska

UCLA -875 vs. Hawaii

UTEP -390 vs. New Mexico St.

This parlay calculates to +341. If we wager $100 on this game, and Illinois, UCLA, and UTEP all win, we receive $441 in our account (The $100 we wagered plus the $341 on the win).

Why isn’t this an official pick? We believe that Illinois might have been an excellent pick against the spread when the Illinois-Nebraska game spread opened at -9 1/2. But, it has come down to -6 1/2 as of this writing. Sharp money was wagers on Illinois +9 1/2, and also on Nebraska -6 1/2. A three-point middling is too good to be true. Playing both sides, the Sharps only need to have the game win both sides one out of every 19 times (5.26%) to make a profit. The spreads of 7, 8, and 9 account for 10.8% of all FBS college football games. That’s double the amount needed to make a profit. The key is the Sharps can find these spreads when they open. Also, playing the opening lines is the most effective way to win for a Sharp.

The UTEP-New Mexico State game is the biggest issue in this parlay. One axiom that older Sharps believe in is not to rely on a losing program to have to win for you to win. The Miners are probably a 3-9 team, which is almost a good year for this program. The Aggies are really weak and should be an underdog in every game, but this is their big rival, maybe bigger than playing New Mexico. The I-10 rivalry frequently is a tossup game.

Two out of three of these games are iffy. The chances that Illinois pulls off the upset of Nebraska are not good enough to have faith in this parlay winning. Scott Frost is in deep cow poo if the Cornhuskers don’t win at least six games and earn a bowl bid, and losing to the weakest Big Ten team will turn the heater on in his heated seat. This will be Bret Bielema’s first game as Illinois head coach, and he brought in an offensive coordinator that runs a system totally different from what the Illini ran under Lovie Smith. Expect growing pains.

We hope this gets you pumped for next week, when there will be more than enough games to play some parlays.

October 18, 2020

PiRate Ratings–College Football For October 22-24, 2020

PiRate Ratings Spreads For This Week

HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Arkansas St.10.38.011.0
USFTulsa-11.4-11.1-11.7
WisconsinIllinois20.418.420.2
UABLouisiana-5.8-4.7-5.9
Kansas St.Kansas26.225.527.9
Fresno St.Hawaii1.01.51.7
ClemsonSyracuse42.442.245.7
North CarolinaNC St.12.212.012.6
Ohio St.Nebraska25.324.426.7
Ole MissAuburn-6.6-6.1-6.1
Michigan St.Rutgers8.59.811.0
TCUOklahoma-6.1-8.0-6.0
MemphisTemple15.414.515.9
CharlotteUTEP20.017.620.4
Coastal CarolinaGa. Southern6.15.55.9
LouisvilleFlorida St.5.77.04.4
LibertySouthern Miss.10.312.712.2
UCFTulane15.115.716.9
MarshallFla. Atlantic22.020.621.3
TennesseeAlabama-14.5-16.1-16.1
PittsburghNotre Dame-14.6-12.3-14.2
Oklahoma St.Iowa St.6.86.96.5
IndianaPenn St.-10.8-9.0-9.0
Wake ForestVa. Tech-9.4-9.1-11.3
RiceMiddle Tenn.7.95.07.3
NavyHouston-6.4-6.0-6.4
TexasBaylor4.63.04.3
PurdueIowa-4.4-3.2-4.9
TroyGeorgia St.-2.1-0.5-1.6
Boston CollegeGeorgia Tech8.18.79.2
MissouriKentucky-9.2-9.3-9.3
Texas TechWest Va.-0.7-1.9-0.7
LSUSouth Carolina7.28.59.7
Boise St.Utah St.15.816.116.0
NevadaWyoming-4.4-5.4-5.2
South AlabamaUL-Monroe11.612.612.6
MinnesotaMichigan1.93.62.2
NorthwesternMaryland10.510.514.6
Miami (Fla.)Virginia8.210.79.0
UTSALa. Tech-3.6-4.0-3.6
SMUCincinnati-6.1-5.5-6.3
Colorado St.New Mexico9.19.410.2
BYUTexas St.32.130.833.6
San Diego St.UNLV14.414.215.9
San Jose St.Air Force-13.3-12.2-14.1

Games with Strikethrough lines have been called off due to Covid-19.

FBS vs. FCS

FBSFCSPiRate
Florida Intl.J’Ville St.7.8
ArmyMercer26.2
Western Ky.Chattanooga9.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

10/18
#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Clemson130.5131.7134.0132.1ACC
2Ohio St.131.3130.0134.3131.9BTen-E
3Alabama125.8126.9127.8126.8SEC-W
4Georgia123.6122.6124.5123.6SEC-E
5Penn St.122.2121.0122.8122.0BTen-E
6Wisconsin122.5119.9123.3121.9BTen-W
7Florida119.9119.2120.4119.8SEC-E
8Oregon119.5117.9119.3118.9P12-N
9Notre Dame119.3118.4118.8118.8ACC
10L S U117.6116.9119.7118.1SEC-W
11Oklahoma St.115.5114.8115.4115.2B12
12U S C116.2113.5115.2115.0P12-S
13Texas A&M114.1114.3114.6114.3SEC-W
14Oklahoma114.4113.7114.2114.1B12
15Kentucky113.6113.7115.0114.1SEC-E
16Minnesota112.3113.2114.4113.3BTen-W
17Texas113.5112.0113.2112.9B12
18N. Carolina112.4112.7113.5112.9ACC
19Iowa112.3112.0114.1112.8BTen-W
20Michigan112.3111.6114.2112.7BTen-E
21Auburn113.4111.8112.8112.7SEC-W
22Virginia Tech111.4111.8113.2112.1ACC
23S. Carolina112.3110.5112.0111.6SEC-E
24UCF110.6110.8111.3110.9AAC
25Iowa St.110.7109.9110.9110.5B12
26Indiana109.4110.0111.8110.4BTen-E
27Cincinnati110.7109.8110.4110.3AAC
28BYU110.5109.8110.5110.3Ind.
29Miami (Fla.)109.0111.5109.7110.1ACC
30Washington110.2108.9110.9110.0P12-N
31Baylor109.9110.0110.0110.0B12
32Utah109.3108.9110.0109.4P12-S
33Tennessee109.3108.8109.7109.3SEC-E
34Memphis109.4108.5108.6108.8AAC
35Kansas St.108.8107.8109.1108.6B12
36Nebraska108.0107.6109.5108.4BTen-W
37California107.5107.7107.8107.7P12-N
38Arizona St.107.8107.4107.8107.6P12-S
39Boise St.107.3107.1106.8107.1MWC-M
40Purdue105.9106.8107.2106.6BTen-W
41Miss. St.106.4105.8107.3106.5SEC-W
42Louisville106.8106.9105.7106.4ACC
43T C U106.3103.7106.2105.4B12
44Washington St.104.8103.5105.9104.7P12-N
45Ole Miss104.8103.7104.7104.4SEC-W
46Northwestern103.5103.4106.1104.4BTen-W
47Air Force103.9104.7104.1104.2MWC-M
48Illinois104.1103.5105.1104.2BTen-W
49Stanford105.0102.5104.2103.9P12-N
50Louisiana103.7103.1103.3103.4SUN-W
51Pittsburgh102.7104.1102.6103.1ACC
52Michigan St.102.9102.7103.4103.0BTen-E
53Houston104.0102.3102.5102.9AAC
54SMU103.1102.8102.5102.8AAC
55Missouri102.4102.4103.7102.8SEC-E
56Virginia102.8102.8102.7102.8ACC
57Florida St.103.1101.9103.3102.8ACC
58Oregon St.103.0103.3101.8102.7P12-N
59Marshall102.8102.6102.3102.5CUSA-E
60W. Virginia102.4102.4102.5102.4B12
61Appal. St.102.0100.9102.7101.9SUN-E
62NC State101.2101.6101.9101.6ACC
63Tulsa102.4100.6100.7101.2AAC
64Arkansas101.3102.0100.1101.1SEC-W
65U C L A102.2100.7100.3101.1P12-S
66Wake Forest100.5101.1100.4100.7ACC
67Boston Coll.100.6100.5100.7100.6ACC
68Arizona101.499.7100.4100.5P12-S
69Texas Tech99.798.499.999.3B12
70Coastal Car.98.098.598.698.4SUN-E
71Wyoming97.098.698.498.0MWC-M
72Duke98.298.397.497.9ACC
73Colorado97.899.195.797.5P12-S
74Buffalo96.797.397.697.2MAC-E
75Tulane97.597.196.497.0AAC
76U A B96.897.496.496.9CUSA-W
77San Diego St.95.997.296.896.6MWC-W
78Temple95.996.194.795.6AAC
79Rutgers96.494.994.495.2BTen-E
80Ohio94.395.196.095.1MAC-E
81Liberty93.696.394.594.8Ind.
82Navy95.694.394.094.6AAC
83Maryland95.194.993.694.5BTen-E
84Hawaii94.894.793.894.4MWC-W
85Georgia Sou.93.494.594.394.1SUN-E
86Miami (O)94.793.294.093.9MAC-E
87Georgia Tech94.593.893.593.9ACC
88Arkansas St.93.394.493.293.6SUN-W
89Fresno St.93.393.792.993.3MWC-W
90Utah St.93.593.092.993.1MWC-M
91Central Mich.93.292.793.393.1MAC-W
92Army92.494.192.593.0Ind.
93Florida Int’l.93.192.893.193.0CUSA-E
94Ball St.92.691.993.092.5MAC-W
95E. Carolina92.392.190.991.8AAC
96Georgia St.91.891.791.791.7SUN-E
97Vanderbilt92.291.490.891.5SEC-E
98Colorado St.91.192.191.291.5MWC-M
99Syracuse90.692.090.891.2ACC
100Nevada90.691.191.191.0MWC-W
101W. Kentucky90.591.290.690.8CUSA-E
102Western Mich.89.191.290.490.2MAC-W
103Kent St.90.189.489.589.7MAC-E
104San Jose St.89.291.088.589.6MWC-W
105Troy88.289.688.688.8SUN-E
106Toledo88.589.788.088.7MAC-W
107Charlotte88.488.588.788.6CUSA-E
108USF89.588.087.588.3AAC
109Rice86.884.386.185.7CUSA-W
110La. Tech85.386.285.485.7CUSA-W
111Southern Miss.84.885.183.884.6CUSA-W
112S. Alabama83.884.983.484.0SUN-W
113U N L V83.585.083.083.8MWC-W
114N. Illinois82.884.683.283.6MAC-W
115New Mexico83.684.382.483.4MWC-M
116Fla. Atlantic82.884.083.083.2CUSA-E
117Eastern Mich.82.484.582.883.2MAC-W
118Kansas83.683.382.283.1B12
119Middle Tenn.80.480.880.280.5CUSA-E
120U T S A80.380.780.380.4CUSA-W
121Texas St.80.481.078.980.1SUN-W
122North Texas76.677.176.476.7CUSA-W
123Bowling Green74.476.170.673.7MAC-E
124Akron73.175.571.573.4MAC-E
125UL-Monroe73.773.872.373.3SUN-W
126U T E P69.972.469.870.7CUSA-W
127Mass.62.168.759.963.6Ind.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgAACOverall
UCF110.6110.8111.3110.91-22-2
Cincinnati110.7109.8110.4110.31-03-0
Memphis109.4108.5108.6108.81-12-1
Houston104.0102.3102.5102.91-01-1
SMU103.1102.8102.5102.82-05-0
Tulsa102.4100.6100.7101.21-01-1
Tulane97.597.196.497.00-32-3
Temple95.996.194.795.61-11-1
Navy95.694.394.094.63-03-2
E. Carolina92.392.190.991.81-11-3
USF89.588.087.588.30-31-4
AAC Avg.101.0100.299.9100.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgACCOverall
Clemson130.5131.7134.0132.14-05-0
Notre Dame119.3118.4118.8118.83-04-0
N. Carolina112.4112.7113.5112.93-13-1
Virginia Tech111.4111.8113.2112.13-13-1
Miami (Fla.)109.0111.5109.7110.13-14-1
Louisville106.8106.9105.7106.40-41-4
Pittsburgh102.7104.1102.6103.12-33-3
Virginia102.8102.8102.7102.81-31-3
Florida St.103.1101.9103.3102.81-32-3
NC State101.2101.6101.9101.64-14-1
Wake Forest100.5101.1100.4100.71-22-2
Boston Coll.100.6100.5100.7100.62-23-2
Duke98.298.397.497.91-51-5
Georgia Tech94.593.893.593.92-22-3
Syracuse90.692.090.891.21-31-4
ACC Avg.105.6105.9105.9105.8

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgB12Overall
Oklahoma St.115.5114.8115.4115.22-03-0
Oklahoma114.4113.7114.2114.11-22-2
Texas113.5112.0113.2112.91-22-2
Iowa St.110.7109.9110.9110.53-03-1
Baylor109.9110.0110.0110.01-11-1
Kansas St.108.8107.8109.1108.63-03-1
T C U106.3103.7106.2105.41-21-2
W. Virginia102.4102.4102.5102.42-13-1
Texas Tech99.798.499.999.30-31-3
Kansas83.683.382.283.10-30-4
Big 12 Avg.106.5105.6106.4106.2

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Ohio St.131.3130.0134.3131.90-00-0
Penn St.122.2121.0122.8122.00-00-0
Michigan112.3111.6114.2112.70-00-0
Indiana109.4110.0111.8110.40-00-0
Michigan St.102.9102.7103.4103.00-00-0
Rutgers96.494.994.495.20-00-0
Maryland95.194.993.694.50-00-0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Wisconsin122.5119.9123.3121.90-00-0
Minnesota112.3113.2114.4113.30-00-0
Iowa112.3112.0114.1112.80-00-0
Nebraska108.0107.6109.5108.40-00-0
Purdue105.9106.8107.2106.60-00-0
Northwestern103.5103.4106.1104.40-00-0
Illinois104.1103.5105.1104.20-00-0
Big Ten Avg.109.9109.4111.0110.1

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
Marshall102.8102.6102.3102.52-04-0
Florida Int’l.93.192.893.193.00-10-2
W. Kentucky90.591.290.690.81-21-4
Charlotte88.488.588.788.61-11-2
Fla. Atlantic82.884.083.083.21-01-0
Middle Tenn.80.480.880.280.51-31-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
U A B96.897.496.496.92-04-1
Rice86.884.386.185.70-00-0
La. Tech85.386.285.485.72-13-2
Southern Miss.84.885.183.884.61-11-3
U T S A80.380.780.380.41-13-3
North Texas76.677.176.476.71-22-3
U T E P69.972.469.870.70-13-2
CUSA Avg.86.086.485.986.1

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
BYU110.5109.8110.5110.3x5-0
Liberty93.696.394.594.8x5-0
Army92.494.192.593.0x4-1
Mass.62.168.759.963.6x0-1
Ind. Avg.89.692.289.490.4

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Buffalo96.797.397.697.20-00-0
Ohio94.395.196.095.10-00-0
Miami (O)94.793.294.093.90-00-0
Kent St.90.189.489.589.70-00-0
Bowling Green74.476.170.673.70-00-0
Akron73.175.571.573.40-00-0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Central Mich.93.292.793.393.10-00-0
Ball St.92.691.993.092.50-00-0
Western Mich.89.191.290.490.20-00-0
Toledo88.589.788.088.70-00-0
N. Illinois82.884.683.283.60-00-0
Eastern Mich.82.484.582.883.20-00-0
MAC Avg.87.688.487.587.9

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Boise St.107.3107.1106.8107.10-00-0
Air Force103.9104.7104.1104.20-01-0
Wyoming97.098.698.498.00-00-0
Utah St.93.593.092.993.10-00-0
Colorado St.91.192.191.291.50-00-0
New Mexico83.684.382.483.40-00-0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
San Diego St.95.997.296.896.60-00-0
Hawaii94.894.793.894.40-00-0
Fresno St.93.393.792.993.30-00-0
Nevada90.691.191.191.00-00-0
San Jose St.89.291.088.589.60-00-0
U N L V83.585.083.083.80-00-0
MWC Avg.93.694.493.593.8

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Oregon119.5117.9119.3118.90-00-0
Washington110.2108.9110.9110.00-00-0
California107.5107.7107.8107.70-00-0
Washington St.104.8103.5105.9104.70-00-0
Stanford105.0102.5104.2103.90-00-0
Oregon St.103.0103.3101.8102.70-00-0

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
U S C116.2113.5115.2115.00-00-0
Utah109.3108.9110.0109.40-00-0
Arizona St.107.8107.4107.8107.60-00-0
U C L A102.2100.7100.3101.10-00-0
Arizona101.499.7100.4100.50-00-0
Colorado97.899.195.797.50-00-0
P12 Avg.107.1106.1106.6106.6

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Georgia123.6122.6124.5123.63-13-1
Florida119.9119.2120.4119.82-12-1
Kentucky113.6113.7115.0114.12-22-2
S. Carolina112.3110.5112.0111.62-22-2
Tennessee109.3108.8109.7109.32-22-2
Missouri102.4102.4103.7102.81-21-2
Vanderbilt92.291.490.891.50-30-3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Alabama125.8126.9127.8126.84-04-0
L S U117.6116.9119.7118.11-21-2
Texas A&M114.1114.3114.6114.33-13-1
Auburn113.4111.8112.8112.72-22-2
Miss. St.106.4105.8107.3106.51-31-3
Ole Miss104.8103.7104.7104.41-31-3
Arkansas101.3102.0100.1101.12-22-2
SEC Avg.111.2110.7111.6111.2

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Appal. St.102.0100.9102.7101.90-02-1
Coastal Car.98.098.598.698.42-04-0
Georgia Sou.93.494.594.394.11-13-1
Georgia St.91.891.791.791.70-21-2
Troy88.289.688.688.81-03-1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Louisiana103.7103.1103.3103.42-13-1
Arkansas St.93.394.493.293.61-13-2
S. Alabama83.884.983.484.01-02-2
Texas St.80.481.078.980.11-21-5
UL-Monroe73.773.872.373.30-20-5
Sun Avg.90.891.290.790.9

Rating of Conferences

#LeagueAvg
1SEC111.2
2BTen110.1
3P12106.6
4B12106.2
5ACC105.8
6AAC100.4
7MWC93.8
8Sun90.9
9Ind.90.4
10MAC87.9
11CUSA86.1

September 20, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 20, 2020

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:27 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
S. AlabamaUAB-6.0-5.5-5.8
UTSAMiddle Tenn.-1.2-2.2-1.6
OklahomaKansas St.15.416.615.7
Ole MissFlorida-13.2-14.3-14.5
Wake ForestNotre Dame-20.7-18.9-20.9
AuburnKentucky10.18.78.9
East CarolinaUCF-18.6-18.4-21.0
PittsburghLouisville-1.7-0.4-0.4
LouisianaGa. Southern14.512.913.0
SyracuseGeorgia Tech-3.2-0.5-1.5
CharlotteGeorgia St.-1.2-0.6-0.9
LibertyFlorida Intl.-5.3-2.2-4.9
TCUIowa St.-0.9-2.2-0.3
LSUMississippi St.19.018.919.9
Texas TechTexas-17.6-17.5-17.6
Oklahoma St.West Va.12.811.912.5
CincinnatiArmy18.515.218.3
UL MonroeUTEP18.916.417.5
Arkansas St.Tulsa-1.81.10.3
ArkansasGeorgia-23.9-21.1-27.0
VirginiaDuke10.39.310.6
Boston Coll.Texas St.24.423.626.0
Fla. AtlanticUSF-8.4-5.3-6.3
MissouriAlabama-20.3-21.1-21.0
HoustonNorth Texas28.826.527.3
Southern Miss.Tulane-4.8-4.3-4.9
Texas A&MVanderbilt24.925.526.6
S. CarolinaTennessee2.70.51.6
Miami (Fla.)Florida St.1.45.81.8
BaylorKansas23.723.625.1
Va. TechNC St.17.216.719.0
BYUTroy19.115.618.2
FBS vs. FCS
FBSFCSPiRate
Appal. St.Campbell33.9
La. TechHou. Baptist25.8
SMUS.F. Austin30.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Including the Big Ten

9/20/20
#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Ohio St.131.2129.6133.7131.5BTen-E
2Clemson124.7125.7128.6126.4ACC
3L S U123.2122.5125.8123.8SEC-W
4Alabama121.4122.3123.3122.3SEC-W
5Wisconsin122.4119.5122.7121.5BTen-W
6Penn St.122.1120.6122.2121.6BTen-E
7Georgia121.1119.4121.9120.8SEC-E
8Florida119.7119.3120.8119.9SEC-E
9Notre Dame120.0119.1120.1119.7ACC
10Auburn118.0116.6117.9117.5SEC-W
11Oklahoma117.1117.1117.3117.2B12
12Texas116.3115.1116.4115.9B12
13Texas A&M115.7115.8115.9115.8SEC-W
14Minnesota112.2112.8113.8112.9BTen-W
15Michigan112.2111.2113.6112.4BTen-E
16Iowa112.2111.6113.5112.4BTen-W
17UCF112.1112.5113.4112.7AAC
18N. Carolina111.9112.4113.3112.5ACC
19Oklahoma St.112.2111.4112.0111.9B12
20Kentucky110.3110.5111.5110.8SEC-E
21Virginia Tech109.2109.2111.3109.9ACC
22Indiana109.3109.6111.2110.0BTen-E
23Tennessee109.1109.0109.6109.2SEC-E
24Cincinnati109.7108.5109.6109.3AAC
25Nebraska107.9107.2108.9108.0BTen-W
26S. Carolina109.3107.0108.7108.3SEC-E
27Miss. St.106.7106.1108.4107.1SEC-W
28Baylor108.0108.1108.2108.1B12
29Memphis109.0107.7108.2108.3AAC
30Iowa St.107.9107.1107.5107.5B12
31Purdue105.8106.4106.6106.3BTen-W
32Louisville107.6108.2106.5107.4ACC
33Virginia106.6106.1106.3106.4ACC
34BYU106.7105.2106.3106.1Ind.
35Northwestern103.4103.0105.5104.0BTen-W
36Miami (Fla.)105.1107.8105.4106.1ACC
37T C U105.0102.8105.1104.3B12
38Florida St.105.2103.6105.1104.6ACC
39Louisiana105.2104.6105.0104.9SUN-W
40Illinois104.0103.1104.5103.9BTen-W
41Kansas St.104.2103.0104.1103.8B12
42Pittsburgh103.9105.7104.1104.6ACC
43Ole Miss104.1102.5103.8103.4SEC-W
44Houston104.7103.2103.2103.7AAC
45Michigan St.102.8102.3102.8102.7BTen-W
46Appal. St.101.7100.8102.4101.6SUN-E
47Boston Coll.102.3102.2102.4102.3ACC
48W. Virginia101.4101.5101.5101.5B12
49SMU101.4101.2100.8101.2AAC
50Missouri99.199.2100.399.5SEC-E
51Marshall100.399.999.499.8CUSA
52Duke98.498.997.798.3ACC
53Wake Forest97.898.797.698.1ACC
54Texas Tech97.296.097.496.9B12
55Georgia Tech98.297.597.297.6ACC
56Tulsa99.097.396.997.7AAC
57Navy98.296.496.397.0AAC
58Florida Int’l.95.495.295.895.5CUSA
59Arkansas St.95.796.995.696.1SUN-W
60Temple96.497.095.396.2AAC
61W. Kentucky94.095.294.694.6CUSA
62NC State94.094.494.394.2ACC
63Syracuse93.595.594.194.4ACC
64Georgia Sou.92.793.794.093.5SUN-E
65Rutgers96.394.593.994.9BTen-E
66Tulane94.494.493.394.0AAC
67Maryland95.094.593.194.2BTen-E
68Army92.794.892.793.4Ind.
69Arkansas94.795.892.494.3SEC-W
70Coastal Car.91.892.492.292.1SUN-E
71U A B92.693.492.192.7CUSA
72Vanderbilt93.392.791.892.6SEC-E
73E. Carolina92.192.690.991.9AAC
74Troy90.192.190.691.0SUN-E
75Georgia St.89.188.989.289.1SUN-E
76USF91.289.889.290.0AAC
77Liberty88.190.988.989.3Ind.
78La. Tech86.688.187.787.5CUSA
79Southern Miss.88.188.686.987.9CUSA
80Charlotte86.486.786.886.7CUSA
81Rice86.284.285.685.3CUSA
82Kansas86.386.585.086.0B12
83S. Alabama85.186.484.885.4SUN-W
84Fla. Atlantic81.383.081.481.9CUSA
85Middle Tenn.80.381.280.180.5CUSA
86UL-Monroe80.481.178.980.1SUN-W
87Texas St.80.680.778.880.0SUN-W
88North Texas77.378.277.377.6CUSA
89U T S A77.177.076.576.9CUSA
90U T E P63.265.862.863.9CUSA

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
UCF112.1112.5113.4112.7
Cincinnati109.7108.5109.6109.3
Memphis109.0107.7108.2108.3
Houston104.7103.2103.2103.7
SMU101.4101.2100.8101.2
Tulsa99.097.396.997.7
Navy98.296.496.397.0
Temple96.497.095.396.2
Tulane94.494.493.394.0
E. Carolina92.192.690.991.9
USF91.289.889.290.0
AAC Avg.100.7100.199.7100.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Clemson124.7125.7128.6126.4
Notre Dame120.0119.1120.1119.7
N. Carolina111.9112.4113.3112.5
Virginia Tech109.2109.2111.3109.9
Louisville107.6108.2106.5107.4
Virginia106.6106.1106.3106.4
Miami (Fla.)105.1107.8105.4106.1
Florida St.105.2103.6105.1104.6
Pittsburgh103.9105.7104.1104.6
Boston Coll.102.3102.2102.4102.3
Duke98.498.997.798.3
Wake Forest97.898.797.698.1
Georgia Tech98.297.597.297.6
Syracuse93.595.594.194.4
NC State94.094.494.394.2
ACC Avg.105.2105.7105.6105.5
Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Oklahoma117.1117.1117.3117.2
Texas116.3115.1116.4115.9
Oklahoma St.112.2111.4112.0111.9
Baylor108.0108.1108.2108.1
Iowa St.107.9107.1107.5107.5
T C U105.0102.8105.1104.3
Kansas St.104.2103.0104.1103.8
W. Virginia101.4101.5101.5101.5
Texas Tech97.296.097.496.9
Kansas86.386.585.086.0
Big 12 Avg.105.6104.9105.5105.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.131.2129.6133.7131.5
Penn St.122.1120.6122.2121.6
Michigan112.2111.2113.6112.4
Indiana109.3109.6111.2110.0
Michigan St.102.8102.3102.8102.7
Rutgers96.394.593.994.9
Maryland95.094.593.194.2
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin122.4119.5122.7121.5
Minnesota112.2112.8113.8112.9
Iowa112.2111.6113.5112.4
Nebraska107.9107.2108.9108.0
Purdue105.8106.4106.6106.3
Northwestern103.4103.0105.5104.0
Illinois104.0103.1104.5103.9
Big Ten Avg.109.8109.0110.4109.7
Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Marshall100.399.999.499.8
Florida Int’l.95.495.295.895.5
W. Kentucky94.095.294.694.6
U A B92.693.492.192.7
Southern Miss.88.188.686.987.9
La. Tech86.688.187.787.5
Charlotte86.486.786.886.7
Rice86.284.285.685.3
Fla. Atlantic81.383.081.481.9
Middle Tenn.80.381.280.180.5
North Texas77.378.277.377.6
U T S A77.177.076.576.9
U T E P63.265.862.863.9
CUSA Avg.85.385.985.285.4
FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
BYU106.7105.2106.3106.1
Army92.794.892.793.4
Liberty88.190.988.989.3
Indep. Avg.95.897.096.096.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Georgia121.1119.4121.9120.8
Florida119.7119.3120.8119.9
Kentucky110.3110.5111.5110.8
Tennessee109.1109.0109.6109.2
S. Carolina109.3107.0108.7108.3
Missouri99.199.2100.399.5
Vanderbilt93.392.791.892.6
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
L S U123.2122.5125.8123.8
Alabama121.4122.3123.3122.3
Auburn118.0116.6117.9117.5
Texas A&M115.7115.8115.9115.8
Miss. St.106.7106.1108.4107.1
Ole Miss104.1102.5103.8103.4
Arkansas94.795.892.494.3
SEC Avg.110.4109.9110.9110.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Appal. St.101.7100.8102.4101.6
Georgia Sou.92.793.794.093.5
Coastal Car.91.892.492.292.1
Troy90.192.190.691.0
Georgia St.89.188.989.289.1
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Louisiana105.2104.6105.0104.9
Arkansas St.95.796.995.696.1
S. Alabama85.186.484.885.4
Texas St.80.481.178.980.1
UL-Monroe80.680.778.880.0
Sun Avg.91.391.791.191.4

Conference Ratings

#LeagueAvg
1Southeastern110.4
2Big Ten109.7
3Atlantic Coast105.5
4Big 12105.3
5American100.2
6Independents96.3
7Sun Belt91.4
8Conference USA85.4

September 15, 2020

PiRate Ratings NFL for Week 2

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:34 am

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBiasTotal
ClevelandCincinnati3.22.73.144
ChicagoN.Y. Giants7.36.48.341.5
DallasAtlanta2.63.92.849
Green BayDetroit9.28.99.447.5
TennesseeJacksonville5.66.26.241
IndianapolisMinnesota0.40.3-0.145
MiamiBuffalo-5.8-5.5-6.541
N.Y. JetsSan Francisco-7.9-6.2-8.344
PhiladelphiaLA Rams0.00.1-1.648
PittsburghDenver5.15.85.032.5
Tampa BayCarolina7.17.77.559.5
ArizonaWashington8.06.98.049.5
LA ChargersKansas City-7.8-8.6-7.544.5
HoustonBaltimore-7.4-8.1-7.949
SeattleNew England6.06.86.045.5
Las VegasNew Orleans-7.6-6.8-7.948

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo101.3102.3101.4101.715.51-0
New England101.1100.7101.1101.018.51-0
N. Y. Jets94.795.894.194.9190-1
Miami93.594.892.993.725.50-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore110.2110.1110.7110.325.51-0
Pittsburgh102.0102.6101.9102.2171-0
Cleveland97.096.896.996.9220-1
Cincinnati94.895.194.894.9220-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Houston101.3100.5101.3101.023.50-1
Tennessee100.0100.3100.7100.321.51-0
Indianapolis99.799.499.399.421.50-1
Jacksonville95.995.696.095.819.51-0

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City107.4108.2107.8107.824.51-0
Denver98.998.898.998.915.50-1
LA Chargers98.198.198.898.3201-0
Las Vegas97.898.197.697.822.51-0


N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas100.8101.0100.9100.923.50-1
Philadelphia98.598.497.998.223.00-1
Washington95.695.995.695.7211-0
N.Y. Giants94.494.893.794.325.00-1

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.0102.9103.1103.022.51-0
Minnesota100.8100.6100.9100.723.50-1
Chicago100.299.7100.5100.116.51-0
Detroit95.395.595.295.3250-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans107.9107.4108.0107.825.51-0
Tampa Bay102.0101.8101.9101.9320-1
Atlanta100.299.1100.199.825.50-1
Carolina96.495.695.996.027.50-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco105.1104.5104.9104.9250-1
Seattle104.6105.0104.6104.8271-0
Arizona101.1100.3101.1100.828.51-0
LA Rams100.5100.3101.5100.8251-0

September 13, 2020

PiRate Ratings–College Football September 13, 2020

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Week 3Sep. 18-19
HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Oklahoma St.Tulsa16.918.119.6
Georgia St.Louisiana-16.9-16.7-17.0
PittsburghSyracuse11.911.711.5
Western Ky.Liberty11.29.411.4
TulaneNavy-1.60.6-0.5
DukeBoston College3.03.92.4
BaylorHouston4.35.96.0
MarshallAppalachian St.-2.0-1.4-4.3
Notre DameUSF24.324.626.1
North CarolinaCharlotte26.526.627.5
Georgia TechUCF-7.1-8.2-9.4
Ga. SouthernFla. Atlantic12.912.214.1
Middle Tenn.Troy-1.5-2.5-1.7
North TexasSMU-21.5-19.8-20.1
UL-MonroeTexas St.4.54.14.6
LouisvilleMiami (Fla.)11.29.110.0
Southern Miss.La. Tech3.42.50.9
NC St.Wake Forest-3.3-4.2-3.3

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
Coastal CarolinaCampbell22.3
CincinnatiAustin Peay27.4
UTSAS F Austin12.0
ClemsonCitadel47.5
Arkansas St.Cent. Arkansas11.8
UTEPAbilene Chr.-0.7

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Clemson123.7124.7127.6125.4ACC
2L S U123.2122.5125.8123.8SEC-W
3Alabama121.4122.3123.3122.3SEC-W
4Georgia121.1119.4121.9120.8SEC-E
5Florida119.7119.3120.8119.9SEC-E
6Auburn118.0116.6117.9117.5SEC-W
7Oklahoma117.1117.1117.3117.2B12
8Notre Dame117.2116.2117.2116.9ACC
9Texas116.3115.1116.4115.9B12
10Texas A&M115.7115.8115.9115.8SEC-W
11Oklahoma St.113.4112.8113.6113.3B12
12N. Carolina111.9112.4113.3112.5ACC
13Kentucky110.3110.5111.5110.8SEC-E
14Louisville110.7111.3109.7110.5ACC
15Virginia Tech109.2109.2111.3109.9ACC
16UCF109.2109.6110.5109.8AAC
17Tennessee109.1109.0109.6109.2SEC-E
18Cincinnati109.5108.3109.4109.1AAC
19S. Carolina109.3107.0108.7108.3SEC-E
20Memphis109.0107.7108.2108.3AAC
21Baylor108.0108.1108.2108.1B12
22Iowa St.107.9107.1107.5107.5B12
23Miss. St.106.7106.1108.4107.1SEC-W
24Virginia106.6106.1106.3106.4ACC
25BYU106.7105.2106.3106.1Ind.
26Louisiana106.2105.7106.2106.0SUN-W
27Florida St.105.5103.9105.4104.9ACC
28Pittsburgh103.9105.7104.1104.6ACC
29T C U105.0102.8105.1104.3B12
30Kansas St.104.2103.0104.1103.8B12
31Houston104.7103.2103.2103.7AAC
32Ole Miss104.1102.5103.8103.4SEC-W
33Appal. St.102.8101.9103.9102.9SUN-E
34Miami (Fla.)101.5104.1101.7102.4ACC
35W. Virginia101.4101.5101.5101.5B12
36Duke100.6101.3100.0100.6ACC
37SMU100.6100.199.6100.1AAC
38Georgia Tech100.699.999.6100.0ACC
39Missouri99.199.2100.399.5SEC-E
40Boston Coll.99.699.399.699.5ACC
41Wake Forest98.399.498.398.7ACC
42Marshall98.998.597.698.3CUSA
43Texas Tech97.296.097.496.9B12
44Navy98.196.196.096.7AAC
45W. Kentucky95.997.096.796.5CUSA
46Temple96.497.095.396.2AAC
47Tulsa97.695.795.196.1AAC
48Arkansas St.95.796.995.696.1SUN-W
49Florida Int’l.95.495.295.895.5CUSA
50Syracuse94.096.094.694.9ACC
51Arkansas94.795.892.494.3SEC-W
52Tulane94.594.793.694.3AAC
53Army93.295.393.293.9Ind.
54USF95.093.793.193.9AAC
55NC State93.593.793.693.6ACC
56Georgia Sou.92.793.794.093.5SUN-E
57U A B92.693.492.192.7CUSA
58Vanderbilt93.392.791.892.6SEC-E
59Coastal Car.91.892.492.292.1SUN-E
60E. Carolina92.192.690.991.9AAC
61Southern Miss.88.589.087.288.2CUSA
62Troy87.089.087.387.8SUN-E
63Georgia St.87.887.587.787.7SUN-E
64La. Tech86.588.087.787.4CUSA
65Liberty86.289.186.887.4Ind.
66Charlotte86.486.786.886.7CUSA
67Kansas86.386.585.086.0B12
68S. Alabama85.186.484.885.4SUN-W
69Rice86.284.285.685.3CUSA
70Middle Tenn.84.185.084.184.4CUSA
71Fla. Atlantic81.383.081.481.9CUSA
72UL-Monroe82.082.280.481.5SUN-W
73North Texas78.179.378.578.7CUSA
74Texas St.79.079.677.378.6SUN-W
75U T S A77.177.076.576.9CUSA
76U T E P63.466.063.064.1CUSA

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
UCF109.2109.6110.5109.8
Cincinnati109.5108.3109.4109.1
Memphis109.0107.7108.2108.3
Houston104.7103.2103.2103.7
SMU100.6100.199.6100.1
Navy98.196.196.096.7
Temple96.497.095.396.2
Tulsa97.695.795.196.1
Tulane94.594.793.694.3
USF95.093.793.193.9
E. Carolina92.192.690.991.9
AAC Averages100.699.999.5100.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Clemson123.7124.7127.6125.4
Notre Dame117.2116.2117.2116.9
N. Carolina111.9112.4113.3112.5
Louisville110.7111.3109.7110.5
Virginia Tech109.2109.2111.3109.9
Virginia106.6106.1106.3106.4
Florida St.105.5103.9105.4104.9
Pittsburgh103.9105.7104.1104.6
Miami (Fla.)101.5104.1101.7102.4
Duke100.6101.3100.0100.6
Georgia Tech100.699.999.6100.0
Boston Coll.99.699.399.699.5
Wake Forest98.399.498.398.7
Syracuse94.096.094.694.9
NC State93.593.793.693.6
ACC Averages105.1105.6105.5105.4
Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Oklahoma117.1117.1117.3117.2
Texas116.3115.1116.4115.9
Oklahoma St.113.4112.8113.6113.3
Baylor108.0108.1108.2108.1
Iowa St.107.9107.1107.5107.5
T C U105.0102.8105.1104.3
Kansas St.104.2103.0104.1103.8
W. Virginia101.4101.5101.5101.5
Texas Tech97.296.097.496.9
Kansas86.386.585.086.0
Big 12 Averages105.7105.0105.6105.4
Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Marshall98.998.597.698.3
W. Kentucky95.997.096.796.5
Florida Int’l.95.495.295.895.5
U A B92.693.492.192.7
Southern Miss.88.589.087.288.2
La. Tech86.588.087.787.4
Charlotte86.486.786.886.7
Rice86.284.285.685.3
Middle Tenn.84.185.084.184.4
Fla. Atlantic81.383.081.481.9
North Texas78.179.378.578.7
U T S A77.177.076.576.9
U T E P63.466.063.064.1
CUSA Averages85.786.385.685.9
FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
BYU106.7105.2106.3106.1
Army93.295.393.293.9
Liberty86.289.186.887.4
Ind. Averages95.496.595.495.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Georgia121.1119.4121.9120.8
Florida119.7119.3120.8119.9
Kentucky110.3110.5111.5110.8
Tennessee109.1109.0109.6109.2
S. Carolina109.3107.0108.7108.3
Missouri99.199.2100.399.5
Vanderbilt93.392.791.892.6
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
L S U123.2122.5125.8123.8
Alabama121.4122.3123.3122.3
Auburn118.0116.6117.9117.5
Texas A&M115.7115.8115.9115.8
Miss. St.106.7106.1108.4107.1
Ole Miss104.1102.5103.8103.4
Arkansas94.795.892.494.3
SEC Averages110.4109.9110.9110.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Appal. St.102.8101.9103.9102.9
Georgia Sou.92.793.794.093.5
Coastal Car.91.892.492.292.1
Troy87.089.087.387.8
Georgia St.87.887.587.787.7
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Louisiana106.2105.7106.2106.0
Arkansas St.95.796.995.696.1
S. Alabama85.186.484.885.4
UL-Monroe82.082.280.481.5
Texas St.79.079.677.378.6
SBC Averages91.091.590.991.2

Conference Ratings

#LeagueAvg
1Southeastern110.4
2Big 12105.4
3Atlantic Coast105.4
4American100.0
5Independents95.8
6Sun Belt91.2
7Conference USA85.9

This Week’s TV Schedule

Friday, September 18
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
7:00 PMESPN3Coastal CarolinaCampbell
Saturday, September 19
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMFoxBaylorHouston
12:00 PMESPNOklahoma St.Tulsa
12:00 PMESPN3DukeBoston College
12:00 PMESPN2Georgia St.Louisiana
12:00 PMACCPittsburghSyracuse
12:00 PMABCTulaneNavy
12:00 PMESPNUWestern KentuckyLiberty
12:00 PMESPN+CincinnatiAustin Peay
1:30 PMCBSSNMarshallAppalachian St.
2:30 PMUSANotre DameSouth Florida
3:00 PMABCGeorgia TechCentral Florida
3:30 PMESPN3North CarolinaCharlotte
3:30 PMESPN3UTSAS. F. Austin
4:00 PMACCClemsonThe Citadel
4:00 PMESPN2Georgia SouthernFlorida Atlantic
4:00 PMESPNUMiddle TennesseeTroy
6:00 PMCBSSNNorth TexasSMU
7:00 PMESPN+LouisvilleMiami (Fla.)
7:30 PMABCArkansas St.Central Arkansas
7:30 PMESPNUUL MonroeTexas St.
8:00 PMACCNC StateWeake Forest
9:00 PMESPN3UTEPAbilene Christian

October 3, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 4-8, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:44 am

Another mediocre week by the PiRate Rating selections was offset by another spectacular week by three of our five Land Sharps.

Last week, our official picks went 4-7, to bring the total to date to 22-23-1.  This took our minor profit for the season to a minor loss of 5.7% Return on Investment.  We will include some Money Line parlays that give us better than +150 odds this week in an attempt to get back into the black.  In the past, we have done well when playing 4-game parlays that give us better than +150 odds, but we tend to cash in big on these parlays in November.  Hopefully, October will be nice to us.

As for the Land Sharps, Buckeye Michelle, Friday Dog 13, and Cal Gal Tiffany continue to draw the ire of the kind people in the State of Nevada.  If they keep up this streak, they will not be allowed to patronize the books (Note–every pick on this site is done strictly for entertainment purposes only, so they really have no connection with any books).

Dean615 and Stewed Meat have treaded water so far, as both as exactly .500 in their picks.  In Stewed’s defense, these are this Land Sharp’s “B” picks.  Stewed is a real professional, and Stewed A’s picks last week (college and NFL) went 8-3 including a Parlay win that returned 6 to 1 odds for a big profit.

This week, our Land Sharps have picked between 5 and 9 games.  Because we try not to do the same thing, and we include the NFL in our official picks, we are going with 9 selections–3 vs. spreads, 4, 10-point teasers, and 2 Money Line Parlays.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks 

Margins

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Akron Miami (O) 3 Akron
Baltimore Cleveland 3 Baltimore
San Francisco Arizona 3.5 San Francisco

10-Point Teasers (3-team parlays)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Louisville Georgia Tech 6.5 Georgia Tech
Boston College North Carolina St. 5.5 North Carolina St.
LSU Florida 13 Florida

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Alabama Arkansas 24 Alabama
Clemson Wake Forest 7.5 Clemson
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 2.5 Miami (Fla.)

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
South Florida Massachusetts 4 South Florida
Georgia Southern South Alabama 3.5 Georgia Southern
Ole Miss Louisiana-Monroe 2.5 Ole Miss

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Central Florida SMU 14 Central Florida
Washington St. Oregon St. 6.5 Washington St.
Fresno St. Nevada 2 Fresno St.

 

Money Line Parlays

4 Teams at +168

Winner Loser
North Carolina St. Boston College
Troy Georgia St.
UNLV New Mexico
Miami (Fla.) Florida St.

 

4 Teams at +174

Winner Loser
Liberty New Mexico St.
South Florida Massachusetts
Buffalo Central Michigan
Georgia Southern South Alabama

 

The Land Sharps

Buckeye Michelle

Year to Date: 14-6  70.0%, 37.0% Return on Investment

Connecticut +36 vs. Memphis

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

Minnesota +7.5 vs. Iowa

Air Force +3.5 vs. Navy

UAB +9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Friday Dog 13

Year to Date: 11-5 68.8%, 34.4% Return on Investment

Marshall -6 vs. Middle Tennessee

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Ole Miss -22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

West Virginia -28.5 vs. Kansas

Central Florida -24 vs. SMU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

South Florida -4 vs. Massachusetts

Syracuse -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

Year to Date: 17-9  65.4%, 27.3% Return on Investment

Utah St. +3 vs. BYU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida

Florida St. +13 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Southern -13.5 vs. South Alabama

Auburn -3 vs. Mississippi St.

Georgia -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Stewed Meat

Year to Date: 11-11  50.0%, -5% Return on Investment

Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Louisville

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

Florida +3 vs. LSU

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Colorado -2.5 vs. Arizona St.

Houston & Tulsa UNDER 70.5

Michigan & Maryland UNDER 49

 

Dean615

Year to Date: 7-7  50.0%, -5.0% Return on Investment

Notre Dame -6 vs. Virginia Tech

Wisconsin -17.5 vs. Nebraska

Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Kentucky

Florida & LSU UNDER 44.5

Notre Dame & Virginia Tech OVER 56.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 6, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 14: December 8-12, 2016

Week 13 begins the final stretch in the NFL, as the 32 teams are all on the same closing schedule with 12 games played and four to go.  The Flex Scheduling has kicked in, and it becomes time to look at tiebreakers with competing teams.

If you want to take a look at the lengthy tiebreaker rules, you can find them at the NFL’s webpage at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures.

Here is a look at who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

AFC
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Tampa Bay

Of course, the season does not end today, and our new projections show some changes in the rankings above, especially in the AFC West, where Oakland faces a difficult closing stretch, and Kansas City has a somewhat easier road in the final four games.

Our Projected Playoffs

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Pittsburgh
4 Indianapolis
5 Oakland
6 Denver
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Tampa Bay
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

And, our projected playoff outcomes for this week

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Denver
Oakland over Indianapolis
Detroit over Washington
N. Y. Giants over Tampa Bay
 
Divisional Round
New England over Oakland
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Dallas over N. Y. Giants
Seattle over Detroit
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Seattle over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
Seattle over Kansas City

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.1 107.9 110.0 109.0 67 42
Buffalo 102.1 102.3 102.4 102.3 63 39
Miami 97.0 97.4 97.1 97.1 59 38
N. Y. Jets 95.6 94.5 96.0 95.4 57 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 104.8 104.4 105.4 104.9 63 42
Cincinnati 101.5 101.2 101.7 101.5 60 42
Baltimore 100.8 101.8 100.6 101.1 61 40
Cleveland 87.7 88.6 87.4 87.9 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 98.4 99.9 98.0 98.8 62 37
Tennessee 97.8 98.9 97.5 98.1 61 37
Houston 97.0 97.8 96.3 97.0 61 36
Jacksonville 93.1 94.5 92.7 93.4 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.5 105.2 105.1 63 42
Kansas City 104.0 103.8 104.5 104.1 64 40
Oakland 102.3 102.8 103.1 102.7 67 36
San Diego 99.3 100.1 99.1 99.5 64 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.9 104.2 105.5 104.9 63 42
Washington 101.6 101.3 101.6 101.5 63 39
Philadelphia 100.0 98.8 99.5 99.4 60 39
N.Y. Giants 99.2 98.8 99.3 99.1 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.4 101.7 102.2 102.1 59 43
Detroit 101.4 101.1 101.3 101.3 62 39
Green Bay 99.8 99.6 99.7 99.7 64 36
Chicago 93.7 92.7 93.5 93.3 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 104.7 105.4 104.7 104.9 70 35
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
Carolina 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 60 41
New Orleans 100.1 100.9 100.3 100.4 67 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 108.3 106.1 108.8 107.7 63 45
Arizona 102.7 101.6 102.7 102.3 63 39
Los Angeles 96.5 97.3 96.1 96.7 55 42
San Francisco 88.5 89.5 87.9 88.6 54 35

This Week’s NBA Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Kansas City Oakland 4.7 4.0 4.4 57
Buffalo Pittsburgh -0.2 0.4 -0.5 46
Carolina San Diego 4.8 4.0 5.0 45
Cleveland Cincinnati -11.8 -10.6 -12.3 41
Detroit Chicago 10.2 10.9 10.3 40
Indianapolis Houston 4.4 5.1 4.7 51
Jacksonville Minnesota -6.3 -4.2 -6.5 38
Miami Arizona -2.7 -1.2 -2.6 47
Philadelphia Washington 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 47
Tampa Bay New Orleans 4.4 3.7 4.3 59
Tennessee Denver -4.8 -2.6 -4.7 47
San Francisco New York Jets -4.1 -2.0 -5.1 38
Green Bay Seattle -5.5 -3.5 -6.1 48
Los Angeles Atlanta -5.2 -5.1 -5.6 48
New York Giants Dallas -2.7 -2.4 -3.2 48
New England Baltimore 10.3 9.1 12.4 48

 

 

 

September 20, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 3: September 22-26,2016

Quarterback Issues Abound

It is almost inevitable that in today’s philosophy of passing the ball more than running, and with a 16- game schedule, that quarterback injuries would increase from the prior generation of NFL Football.

Certain teams lack pass blockers sufficient to deter the superior pass rushers of today’s game, and all sorts of inventive disguising of pass rush have contributed as much if not more to the troubles.

Just two weeks into the 2016 NFL season, two teams are already on quarterback number three, and others have gone to quarterback number two.

In Cleveland, where the Browns were weak enough before losing Robert Griffin, III and Josh McCown, rookie Cody Kessler will get the start this week at Miami.  Adam Gase’s defense is not the issue in Dolphinland.  Expect Kessler to be running for his life early and often.

New England is down to quarterback number three only due to Tom Brady’d suspension.  If the Pats can sneak through two weeks with Jacoby Brissett, then the king can return.  And, if something should happen to Brissett Thursday night against Houston, we may see wide receiver Julian Edelman move to quarterback.  Edelman has beaten Buffalo and Miami while playing quarterback, but that was when he was at Kent State, and the two teams were the Buffalo Bulls and Miami of Ohio Redhawks.

Jay Cutler’s thumb injury could be reason for John Fox to go with Brian Hoyer.  The Bears, already struggling on offense, may have a difficult time matching the Rams for points in the near future.

Then there is the case of a possible Wally Pipp injury.  When Tony Romo went down in Dallas, rookie Dak Prescott entered and drew comparisons to Roger Staubach.  Staubach once came in as a replacement to Craig Morton.  It took a little shuffling, but Morton soon became a bench-warmer before becoming a New York Giant and Denver Bronco.  Staubach led the Cowboys to two Super Bowl Championships and two others, where Dallas came very close to winning.

And, there is Sam Bradford in Minnesota.  This Vikings team may have to totally change the way it plays now with Adrian Peterson out for a lengthy time and maybe the season.  Bradford showed signs of returning to form in the Sunday night win over Green Bay.  The Vikings have been down this road before.  After the Joe Kapp, Dave Osborn, Bill Brown days of plodding offense, and the two-year babysitting of the job by Gary Cuozzo, Fran Tarkenton came back to Bloomington after a five-year sojourn in the Big Apple, and he teamed up with John Gilliam and Jim Lash, while the Purple People Eaters’ defense continued to dominate, leading the Vikings to the Super Bowl three times in four seasons.  Might this be the year the Vikings make it back?  The NFC looks like a wide-open race this year.

 

Two Weeks Are Not A Trend, But

Through two weeks of the season, the average score of an NFL game comes to less than 42 points per game, or less than 21 points per team.  The Los Angeles Rams have three field goals in two games.  The Seattle Seahawks have three field goals and a touchdown in two games, and that one TD came with 30 seconds remaining at home against Miami.  Is it because the Dolphins and Rams have great defenses that Seattle is averaging just 7.5 points per game?  Are the 49ers and Seahawks so strong defensively that LA averages just 4.5 points per game?

San Francisco gave up close to 50 to Carolina last week.  The problem at the L.A. Coliseum is an archaic offense that Jeff Fisher refuses to alter.  He is a Mike Ditka disciple, but he needs to realize that the 1985 Bears are not coming through the Coliseum locker room doors.  He does not have Eddie George in his backfield, even though Todd Gurley is talented.

Sports metric experts have shown that the key to winning in the NFL is being able to pass the ball and being able to stop the pass.  Running stats are padded by winning teams because they usually run the ball to eat the clock when they lead in the last 20 minutes of games, and the losing team abandons the run to try to catch up.  Fisher is basically the Gene Mauch of football.  Mauch took a lot of excellent baseball teams and guided them to respectable 90-win seasons, while the talent on hand was good enough to win 100 games.

Fisher isn’t alone.  Mike Mularkey and Rex Ryan think you can be the 1985 Bears or even 1963 Bears and win the Super Bowl.  It is true that Denver won last year without a dominating passing game, but they did not have a dominating running game.  They dominated by stopping the pass and by getting just enough passing yards to win.  Even a damaged Peyton Manning was good enough to accumulate necessary passing yards.  The Broncos did not run early and often.  They did not run on first down, run on second down and then pass conservatively on third down.  The metrics actually show that passing on first and second down and on third and less than five is the better percentage play, while running becomes the better option only on third and six to 12 yards.  And, for that matter, going for it on fourth down and less than 4 when outside your own 30 yard line is the  better statistical move (as is going for it on 4th and less than 4 when in field goal range).

Certainly, going against the traditional methods will occasionally cost a team a win, but in rebuttal, going against tradition will allow teams to win games they would have lost by using the old playbook tendencies.  And, the ignorant media will run a coach out of town on a rail for going against tradition and losing while never complimenting the coach that bucks the system and wins.  Hey, they are in the business, because they didn’t do so well in math class.

This Week’s Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
N. Y. Jets 103.9 101.6 105.1 103.5 62 42
New England 101.4 99.3 101.8 100.8 60 41
Buffalo 98.6 99.5 98.7 98.9 59 40
Miami 96.1 96.9 96.1 96.3 58 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Cincinnati 106.9 106.3 107.8 107.0 64 43
Pittsburgh 105.9 105.5 107.2 106.2 65 41
Baltimore 98.7 100.9 98.4 99.3 61 38
Cleveland 89.9 90.9 89.3 90.0 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 101.8 103.0 102.1 102.3 64 38
Indianapolis 97.1 98.9 96.0 97.3 61 36
Jacksonville 95.1 96.9 94.4 95.5 58 38
Tennessee 93.9 95.9 93.4 94.4 54 40
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 106.4 103.1 106.5 105.3 62 43
Kansas City 101.8 101.5 102.5 101.9 63 39
San Diego 99.9 100.9 99.7 100.2 64 36
Oakland 97.7 98.4 97.6 97.9 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 101.0 98.0 100.4 99.8 62 38
N.Y. Giants 99.0 98.3 98.7 98.7 62 37
Washington 97.3 98.1 97.0 97.5 61 37
Dallas 94.6 94.9 94.1 94.5 56 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 104.4 103.7 104.4 104.2 64 40
Minnesota 102.9 101.9 103.4 102.7 60 43
Detroit 99.2 99.0 98.8 99.0 62 37
Chicago 95.4 93.3 95.1 94.6 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 109.4 108.2 110.3 109.3 65 44
New Orleans 99.1 101.5 98.4 99.7 64 36
Atlanta 96.9 99.8 96.8 97.8 62 36
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.8 95.1 95.9 59 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Arizona 110.0 107.5 110.9 109.5 69 41
Seattle 106.4 103.3 107.1 105.6 63 43
Los Angeles 97.9 99.4 97.4 98.3 56 42
San Francisco 95.6 96.8 95.7 96.0 56 40

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Score
New England Houston 2.6 -0.7 2.7 23-21
Buffalo Arizona -7.9 -4.5 -8.7 20-27
Carolina Minnesota 9.5 9.3 9.9 24-14
Cincinnati Denver 3.5 6.2 4.3 21-16
Green Bay Detroit 7.7 7.2 8.1 28-20
Jacksonville Baltimore -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 20-21
Miami Cleveland 9.2 9.0 9.8 26-17
New York Giants Washington 4.2 2.7 4.5 27-23
Tennessee Oakland -0.8 0.5 -1.2 20-21
Seattle San Francisco 13.8 9.5 14.4 23-10
Tampa Bay Los Angeles 1.5 0.9 1.2 17-16
Indianapolis San Diego 0.2 1.0 -0.7 28-27
Kansas City New York Jets 0.9 2.9 0.4 24-23
Philadelphia Pittsburgh -2.9 -5.5 -4.8 23-27
Dallas Chicago 2.2 4.6 2.0 20-17
New Orleans Atlanta 5.2 4.7 4.6 31-26

 

November 26, 2015

Selections Against The Spread: November 26, 2015

It’s time to stuff your wallet with money.  And, how best may we recommend that your wallet gets stuffed?  Keep it there and do not use all these picks to lose it all.  There are retailers anxiously waiting to remove all that cash you have saved in the last 52 weeks, so waste it on that cheap drone toy that will be broken by January 10.

 

We have opened the vault and come forward with the most selections of the season for this week’s slate.  Rivalry games, games that are must win contests for bowl eligibility, and teams that are reversing earlier trends lead our selections this week.  A season high six money line parlays anchor 13 straight picks.  Enjoy, but only to look at them.  Don’t be like a certain reader here from the Las Vegas area that informed us three weeks ago that SHE played every money line parlay selection we issued and won a few hundred dollars after losing every week prior during this season by using other information.  Yes, she won some money that week, but if she followed our advice the following week, she gave a chunk back to Vegas.

 

Which brings us to another point:  for some reason, women seem to be following this blog more than men, or at least, they contact us more than the guys.  As some of you know, this site is run by a majority of the fairer sex.  Our founder is the only male contributing here.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all our American followers.  Happy Autumn/Spring to all our followers on the other side of the pond and on the lower side of the Earth.

 

11/27/2015      
Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Buffalo Massachusetts 6.5 Buffalo
Georgia St. Troy 1 Georgia St.
Tulane Tulsa -6.5 Tulsa
San Jose St. Boise St. -7.5 San Jose St.
Kentucky Louisville -4.5 Kentucky
Michigan St. Penn St. 11 Penn St.
Purdue Indiana -6.5 Indiana
Illinois (@Chi.) Northwestern -3.5 Northwestern
Stanford Notre Dame 3.5 Stanford
Detroit Philadelphia 2 Detroit
Dallas Carolina 1 Carolina
Green Bay Chicago 9 Chicago
Houston New Orleans 3 Houston
       
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 7-5   $245 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla)   Pittsburgh
Buffalo Massachusetts   Buffalo
Akron Kent St.   Akron
       
Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 13-10   $230 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Toledo Western Michigan   Toledo
Tulsa Tulane   Tulsa
West Virginia Iowa St.   West Virginia
Tennessee Vanderbilt   Tennessee
       
Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 7-3   $325 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Utah Colorado   Utah
Florida St. Florida   Florida St.
Georgia Georgia Tech   Georgia
Clemson South Carolina   Clemson
       
Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 3-2   $256 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
LSU Texas A&M   LSU
Alabama Auburn   Alabama
Oklahoma Oklahoma St.   Oklahoma
San Diego St. Nevada   San Diego St.
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 8-3   $358 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Houston New Orleans   Houston
Kansas City Buffalo   Kansas City
New York Jets Miami   New York Jets
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 13-10   $233 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Cincinnati St. Louis   Cincinnati
Arizona San Francisco   Arizona
New England Denver   New England

 

 

November 8, 2015

College Football Preview: November 10-14, 2015

The Week That Was–The Big Skakedown
It started last Tuesday with Northern Illinois knocking off unbeaten Toledo. Memphis, Michigan State, TCU, and LSU followed suit, and now it’s down to Clemson, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Ohio State, and Iowa. Five unbeaten teams remain, but at least two of the quintet must lose, because Ohio State and Iowa would meet in the Big Ten Championship Game if they won out, and Baylor and Oklahoma State must play in the regular season.

Does this mean that #1 Clemson’s path is clear and easy? No, because the Tigers may not be the best team in the ACC at the present time. North Carolina had a bump in the road in the opening week of the season, blowing a lead and losing to South Carolina to open the season. Since then, the Tar Heels have dominated on both sides of the ball. The most recent win, a blowout of rival Duke, moves UNC into the driver’s seat in the Coastal Division.

The schedule does not have as many great games this week, but there are many important ones. Not only are conference races still up for grabs, there are about 20 teams competing for the final six to eight bowl bids. As we believed last week, we continue to believe this week that only 79 teams will reach bowl eligibility. That means one 5-7 team will back into a bowl game. The rule states that if it comes down to 5-7 teams, the tiebreaker is the last football APR (academic progress rate) score. In case you were wondering, Nebraska is number one in line with a 985 score, followed by Vanderbilt (983), Army (981), Rutgers (980), Boston College (980), Georgia Tech (978), Virginia Tech (977), Washington (977), and Kansas St. (976) (teams already bowl eligible were not included in the APR rankings.)

Let’s break the conference races down and show you just how dysfunctional the race to the Playoffs could be.

Power Five Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Clemson sits pretty at 6-0/9-0 with little competition in their site in the regular season. However, North Carolina looks to be headed to an 8-0 finish. We believe that the Tar Heels have a better than 50-50 chance of beating Clemson and securing the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.

Notre Dame is included in the ACC write-up, since the Irish can receive an ACC bowl bid and even jump over an ACC team with one additional win. The Irish must close out the season at Stanford, and as of now, we believe the Cardinal will win a close one. At 10-2, Notre Dame would jump over everybody else in the ACC that isn’t automatically in a NY6 Bowl.

Florida State will look much better if the Seminoles edge Florida in three weeks, while Duke and Pittsburgh will decide who rates ahead of the other when they face off in Durham this week.

Miami, North Carolina State, and Louisville will go somewhere, while Virginia Tech still has a strong chance of getting a sixth win. Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Virginia are out for now.

Big Ten
Ohio State and Iowa look like they are headed to an epic 12-0 vs. 12-0 battle in the Big Ten Championship Game, but those sneaky PiRates believe there is going to be a little fly in the Buckeye ointment. All season long, we have been looking at the upstart rival up north. Michigan may be repeating history from 1969. If you didn’t read our analogy from October, we compared this season to 1969, when defending national champion Ohio State entered the final game undefeated and ranked number one, while Michigan came into the game with two losses, one to a conference champion from another power conference, and one to Michigan State. In 1969, Michigan’s defense shut down Ohio State in the second half and pulled off a big upset at the Big House to win the Big Ten title. The PiRates believe history can and will repeat itself, and Michigan will win the East by upsetting Ohio State again.

Iowa must lost twice for Wisconsin to pass them in the standings, and the Hawkeyes close with Minnesota and Purdue at home and Nebraska on the road. The Hawkeyes might run the table, but we believe Michigan or Ohio State would beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should Michigan State upset Ohio State and take the East Division flag, then Iowa might take the conference title and advance to the playoffs at 13-0. For now, we say Michigan over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. That would leave an Ohio State team at 11-1 probably as the number four seed in the playoffs.

Besides the five teams previously mentioned, Penn State and Northwestern are sure things for bowls. Indiana and Rutgers have the next two best chances to get to 6-6, while Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska have minor chances.

Big 12
TCU can still win the Big 12 Championship, but the Horned Frogs are out of the playoff picture. Oklahoma State and Baylor, remain undefeated, while Oklahoma sits a game back with one loss. Baylor still must play all three of the contenders consecutively, and we believe the Bears are going to lose at least one game and more likely two of the three.

Oklahoma cannot lose another game and win the league, and the Sooners close with the other three contenders, with Baylor and Oklahoma State coming on the road.

Oklahoma State has a winnable road game against Iowa State, and then the Cowboys close with home games against Baylor and Oklahoma. After OSU dismissed TCU, it looks like the boys from Stillwater have the best chance of running the table and entering the playoffs at 12-0.

There is quite a drop after the top four. We see three additional bowl eligible teams in West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. As for Texas, the Longhorns are 4-5 with games at West Virginia, home against Texas Tech, and a finale at Baylor. It looks like 5-7 for the Longhorns, and 5-7 may not allow Coach Charlie Strong to keep his job.

Pac-12
This is an interesting race, and it may be so balanced at this point that no team emerges with just one loss. In the North, Stanford needs one more conference win to clinch the division. The Cardinal can do that this week against Oregon, but if the Ducks win, the race is still alive. The Ducks could then win the division by knocking off USC and Oregon State, if California beats Stanford.

Washington State can still tie for the division crown by winning at UCLA, home against Colorado, and at Washington, if Stanford loses to Oregon and Cal, and Oregon wins out. However, the Cougars have been eliminated from the Pac-12 Championship Game, because Oregon would edge WSU with a better intradivisional record.

California needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and the Bears should get that against Oregon State this week. Washington might finish 5-7 with losses at Arizona State and against Washington State, but the Huskies might be the one lucky 5-7 team to make it to a bowl thanks to their APR score.

The South Division title is still undecided with Utah holding a one game lead over USC and UCLA. The Trojans beat the Utes earlier this year, while Utah and UCLA have yet to play, and of course USC and UCLA have yet to play. Utah is not getting much respect, and the Utes are not totally out of the playoff race themselves. If they beat UCLA and then knock off Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game, a 12-1 Utah team could make a case, especially if USC continues to win.

Arizona State is a wounded team coming in with just one engine, but the Seminoles have the best shot of the rest of getting to 6-6.

Southeastern
Who is going to beat Alabama the rest of the way? The Crimson Tide are supposed to be headed for a trap game at Mississippi State this week, but the Bulldogs do not have enough talent to upset the Tide, unless ‘Bama gives them 14 points in turnovers like they did against Ole Miss.

Ole Miss played themselves out of the conference championship picture with the loss to Arkansas. Facemask penalties can be big. LSU could only win the West if they win out and Alabama loses. It may be even harder for the Tigers to win out than for someone else to beat Alabama.

The rest of this division will also be bowl eligible, an incredible seven out of seven. Because of this, a 12-1 Alabama team might deserve to be the overal number one seed regardless of who else goes undefeated.

Florida has already clinched the East Division, but the Gators might still lose two more games. A team that scores just nine points at home on Vanderbilt could easily lose at South Carolina or at home to Florida State, and they will lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Tennessee was 3-4 two weeks ago, but the Volunteers should win out to finish 8-4 and take second in the division. Georgia has a tough finishing conference game at Auburn, but the Bulldogs finish with two sure things out of conference against Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech. If they lose either one, then Mark Richt becomed unemployed.

Kentucky has now lost four games in a row to fall to 4-5, but the Wildcats’ next two games are winnable. This week’s game at Vanderbilt could be tough, but the Commodores’ offense is as weak as any Power Six Conference team, and a couple of scores could be all the Wildcats need to secure a win. The following week’s game against Charlotte should get the ‘Cats bowl eligible if they knock off the Commodores this week.

South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Missouri are out of the bowl race, and Missouri’s team could be looking at one or more forfeit losses to close the season due to racial tensions on the campus leading to a team walkout. Missouri’s proposed finishing schedule includes a game against BYU in Kansas City this weekend, followed by a home game against Tennessee and a road game against Arkansas.

Group of Five Conferences

American Athletic
Navy’s upset of Memphis ruined the big game for this week, when the Tigers go to Houston. Houston is still in control of the New Year’s Six Bowl that goes to the best Group of Five team, but the Cougars have three tough games to go. Besides needing to beat Memphis, they have to beat Navy and then Temple in the AAC Championship Game.

Don’t count out Navy just yet. The Midshipmen’s lone loss is to Notre Dame, and they did not look like the underdog pulling off a surprise in the win at Memphis. Navy could do the same thing to Houston and take the West Division flag.

Tulsa is not in contention in the West, but the Golden Hurricane needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. The season-ended against Tulane ought to give UT that win.

Temple has a two-game lead in the East Division, but they have a tough closing schedule. The Owls play at the hot South Florida Bulls this week, and USF is still alive in the division race. TU then finishes with home games against Memphis and Connecticut. We believe TU will win out and then win the Conference Championship Game to earn the New Year’s Six Bowl bid.

Besides USF, Cincinnati appears to be the only other team headed to bowl eligibility, as Connecticut and East Carolina don’t appear to have enough winnable games left.

Conference USA
Any chance that a C-USA team could make it to the New Year’s Six Bowl was lost when Marshall lost at Middle Tennessee this past weekend. Western Kentucky already had two losses, and even if the Hilltoppers win out, they will not jump over every AAC team.

The Middle Tennessee win virtually locked up a bowl bid for the Blue Raiders, while Old Dominion and Florida International still hold slim chances of making it to six wins.

In the West, Louisiana Tech looks invincible at this point, but Southern Miss. still has a shot. We believe the winner of that game will eventually emerge as the overall conference champion and have first dibs on which of seven contracted bowls they wish to accept, or in other words accepts the Bahamas Bowl.

Rice and UTEP still have even money odds’ chances of finishing 6-6.

Independents
BYU has already clinched a bowl, and they will be invited to either the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl.

Army already has seven losses, but if the Black Knights beat Tulane, Rutgers, and Navy, they could still earn a bowl bid with a superior APR score. We think West Point will lose an eighth, ninth, and tenth game, so it is a moot point.

Mid-American
Bowling Green is up two games with three to play in the East, and the Falcons would have to lose all three for Buffalo to surpass them. The Bulls need just one more win to become bowl eligible, and that should happen with a game against UMass on November 27, if not at Akron the week before.

Akron needs two more wins, and the Zips still have Miami of Ohio and Kent State on their schedule. Call it 6-6 for Terry Bowden’s crew, as Akron makes it to a bowl for the second time ever.

Ohio needs one more win to earn a bowl bid. The Bobcats were once a leading contender to win the division, but the season soured at the halfway point. Weak opponents in consecutive weeks against Kent State and Ball State should get Ohio to 7-5.

The West Division is a mess thanks to last week’s results. Western Michigan is now alone in first place at 5-0, but the Broncos have a killer finishing schedule against Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Toledo, the latter two on the road.

Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan are in a three-way tie at 4-1. TU has a schedule the equal of WMU with games at CMU, at BGU, and at home against WMU. NIU has it a little easier with games at Buffalo, and home against WMU and Ohio. CMU closes with Toledo at home but their final two games are easy wins against Kent State and Eastern Michigan. The Chippewas were a consensus 5th place choice in the preseason, and first year coach John Bonamego will draw a lot of attention from bigger schools after spending most of his career coaching in the NFL.

Mountain West
It was supposed to be a slam dunk 13-0 season for Boise State, but the Broncos stumbled early against BYU and lost at Utah State. Still, BSU can win the Mountain Division with a closing schedule of New Mexico, Air Force, and San Jose State. The Broncos will not be the favored team in the conference championship game if they win the division title.

Air Force still controls its own destiny in the Mountain Division, and hiding in the bushes, New Mexico also controls its own destiny. Bob Davie’s Lobos may not win out and take the division flag, but UNM needs just one more win to earn their first bowl bid since 2007. Utah State needs help to win the division and appears headed to a 6-6 finish.

Colorado State must win two more games to get to six wins, and the Rams should do it by defeating UNLV and Fresno State. That would mean five of the six Mountain teams would earn a bowl bid.

The West Division is not so fortunate. Only San Diego State is assured of earning a bowl bid at this point, and the Aztecs appear to be the class of the entire league this year.

Nevada should finish 6-6, but there is no guarantee that the Wolfpack will win another game with San Jose State, Utah State, and San Diego State left to play. As for San Jose State, the Spartans are 4-5 after a close loss to BYU, and they close with Nevada, Hawaii, and Boise State. The winner of the Nevada-San Jose State game should finish 6-6, but that is not for sure.

Sun Belt
In a weeknight surprise, Arkansas State upset Appalachian State to take command in the SBC. The Red Wolves have three easy marks in their way to the SBC title in Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, and Texas State. The fans in Jonesboro might be getting nervous, not because ASU could be upset, but because someone may come calling for Coach Blake Anderson.

Appalachian State will still go bowling this year, as will Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Lafayette.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 129.6 127.4 129.5 128.8
2 Ohio St. 128.5 123.1 129.3 127.0
3 Baylor 127.8 124.0 128.1 126.6
4 Oklahoma 127.0 123.7 127.6 126.1
5 Stanford 124.2 122.3 124.6 123.7
6 Clemson 122.9 124.1 123.6 123.5
7 TCU 126.0 117.7 126.4 123.4
8 LSU 123.6 120.8 123.7 122.7
9 Notre Dame 123.1 120.2 123.1 122.1
10 USC 122.0 118.1 122.0 120.7
11 North Carolina 120.3 120.8 120.6 120.6
12 Utah 121.9 116.8 121.4 120.0
13 UCLA 122.2 116.2 120.8 119.7
14 Ole Miss 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
15 Tennessee 120.6 116.5 120.4 119.2
16 Oklahoma St. 119.2 116.6 119.8 118.5
17 Florida 119.4 116.0 119.4 118.3
18 Michigan 119.0 116.2 119.1 118.1
19 Arkansas 118.8 113.6 118.0 116.8
20 Mississippi St. 116.7 113.4 117.2 115.8
21 Auburn 116.0 113.6 115.4 115.0
22 Oregon 117.1 110.8 116.7 114.9
23 Georgia 117.2 110.7 116.1 114.7
24 Michigan St. 115.5 112.3 114.8 114.2
25 Florida St. 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
26 Texas A&M 115.6 112.1 113.4 113.7
27 California 115.1 109.4 114.2 112.9
28 Houston 109.9 115.9 112.1 112.6
29 Wisconsin 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
30 Iowa 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
31 Georgia Tech 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
32 Arizona St. 113.6 108.1 112.1 111.3
33 Boise St. 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
34 North Carolina St. 110.4 112.2 109.4 110.7
35 West Virginia 112.9 106.9 111.9 110.6
36 Bowling Green 107.8 112.8 110.9 110.5
37 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
38 Temple 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
39 Washington 110.1 107.1 110.4 109.2
40 Louisville 107.5 110.2 107.3 108.3
41 Nebraska 108.4 106.6 107.6 107.5
42 Pittsburgh 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.2
43 Memphis 106.5 107.4 107.1 107.0
44 Missouri 108.4 104.8 107.3 106.8
45 South Carolina 108.3 104.8 106.8 106.6
46 Cincinnati 105.3 107.2 107.1 106.5
47 Penn St. 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
48 Washington St. 107.4 103.8 107.7 106.3
49 Duke 106.1 106.3 106.2 106.2
50 BYU 106.2 105.6 106.8 106.2
51 Navy 104.6 108.1 105.4 106.0
52 Western Kentucky 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
53 San Diego St. 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
54 Arizona 107.3 101.9 106.5 105.2
55 Miami 104.2 104.7 105.1 104.7
56 Illinois 105.4 103.9 104.5 104.6
57 Minnesota 105.2 103.5 104.5 104.4
58 Texas Tech 107.1 98.9 106.7 104.2
59 Northwestern 104.1 104.3 103.9 104.1
60 Toledo 103.2 104.2 104.7 104.0
61 Texas 105.0 101.7 105.0 103.9
62 Louisiana Tech 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
63 Western Michigan 102.3 103.2 103.7 103.1
64 Kansas St. 106.1 96.3 105.3 102.6
65 Colorado 104.7 99.6 102.4 102.2
66 Virginia 101.6 99.7 101.3 100.9
67 Kentucky 102.5 98.0 100.7 100.4
68 Vanderbilt 101.5 97.7 101.7 100.3
69 Utah St. 99.5 99.8 99.5 99.6
70 Boston College 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
71 Northern Illinois 97.0 100.9 97.9 98.6
72 Iowa St. 99.6 95.9 99.4 98.3
73 Appalachian St. 96.4 99.3 98.2 98.0
74 Air Force 96.6 100.8 96.0 97.8
75 Georgia Southern 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
76 Indiana 96.5 96.5 95.8 96.3
77 Wake Forest 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
78 Marshall 95.4 96.3 95.6 95.8
79 South Florida 93.3 99.1 94.4 95.6
80 Purdue 96.4 95.3 94.9 95.5
81 Maryland 95.0 94.1 94.9 94.7
82 East Carolina 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
83 Syracuse 93.3 95.7 92.2 93.7
84 Rutgers 94.7 91.4 92.7 92.9
85 Arkansas St. 92.1 93.2 93.3 92.9
86 Middle Tennessee 93.3 92.3 92.9 92.8
87 Central Michigan 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
88 Southern Mississippi 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
89 San Jose St. 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
90 Colorado St. 92.7 92.0 91.9 92.2
91 Tulsa 90.2 94.5 91.2 92.0
92 Connecticut 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
93 Florida International 89.8 92.2 89.9 90.6
94 Nevada 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
95 New Mexico 89.0 90.0 88.2 89.1
96 Oregon St. 90.4 87.1 88.2 88.6
97 Ohio 85.7 89.8 87.0 87.5
98 Buffalo 83.2 89.3 85.0 85.8
99 Tulane 85.2 87.4 84.4 85.7
100 Akron 83.2 88.9 84.7 85.6
101 UNLV 84.0 86.5 85.4 85.3
102 Massachusetts 84.1 86.9 84.8 85.3
103 SMU 83.9 87.8 83.5 85.1
104 Troy 83.7 85.1 85.2 84.7
105 UL-Lafayette 83.5 86.2 83.8 84.5
106 Rice 82.8 85.9 82.7 83.8
107 Florida Atlantic 82.3 85.4 83.1 83.6
108 Hawaii 82.0 83.7 80.9 82.2
109 Army 77.9 86.7 79.4 81.3
110 Ball St. 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
111 Fresno St. 80.1 83.6 78.1 80.6
112 Kent St. 79.5 82.2 80.1 80.6
113 Wyoming 80.1 81.6 78.9 80.2
114 Central Florida 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
115 UT-San Antonio 78.8 81.3 79.2 79.8
116 UTEP 77.1 79.8 77.0 78.0
117 Georgia St. 77.3 77.5 78.0 77.6
118 Old Dominion 76.3 80.7 75.7 77.6
119 Texas St. 76.6 79.8 76.2 77.5
120 South Alabama 74.8 80.9 75.9 77.2
121 Miami (O) 74.1 79.0 74.7 75.9
122 Idaho 73.0 78.3 74.1 75.1
123 North Texas 72.6 76.6 72.7 74.0
124 Kansas 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
125 UL-Monroe 73.2 72.1 73.2 72.8
126 Eastern Michigan 70.7 76.9 70.0 72.5
127 New Mexico St. 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
128 Charlotte 68.4 70.6 68.5 69.2

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Baylor
5 Notre Dame
6 LSU
7 Oklahoma
8 Stanford
9 Iowa
10 Utah
11 TCU
12 Florida
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Michigan
15 Michigan St.
16 Houston
17 USC
18 Mississippi St.
19 North Carolina
20 Memphis
21 Ole Miss
22 Navy
23 UCLA
24 Florida St.
25 Northwestern
26 Temple
27 BYU
28 Wisconsin
29 Tennessee
30 Boise St.
31 Toledo
32 Texas A&M
33 Bowling Green
34 Oregon
35 Penn St.
36 Western Kentucky
37 Arkansas
38 Washington St.
39 Georgia
40 Pittsburgh
41 California
42 Miami (Fla)
43 West Virginia
44 Auburn
45 Washington
46 Cincinnati
47 Duke
48 Louisville
49 North Carolina St.
50 Appalachian St.
51 Western Michigan
52 Louisiana Tech
53 San Diego St.
54 Northern Illinois
55 Illinois
56 Texas Tech
57 Georgia Southern
58 Arizona St.
59 Nebraska
60 Georgia Tech
61 Central Michigan
62 Air Force
63 Kansas St.
64 Minnesota
65 Virginia Tech
66 Marshall
67 South Florida
68 Utah St.
69 Arkansas St.
70 Texas
71 Indiana
72 Arizona
73 South Carolina
74 Connecticut
75 Southern Miss.
76 Tulsa
77 Virginia
78 Iowa St.
79 Kentucky
80 Missouri
81 Buffalo
82 Vanderbilt
83 Maryland
84 Middle Tennessee
85 San Jose St.
86 East Carolina
87 Ohio
88 Rutgers
89 Syracuse
90 Boston College
91 Colorado
92 Louisiana-Lafayette
93 Colorado St.
94 Akron
95 New Mexico
96 Nevada
97 South Alabama
98 Purdue
99 Wake Forest
100 Oregon St.
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Old Dominion
104 UNLV
105 Rice
106 Kent St.
107 Ball St.
108 Tulane
109 SMU
110 Army
111 Texas St.
112 UTEP
113 Idaho
114 Massachusetts
115 Florida Atlantic
116 Georgia St.
117 Fresno St.
118 Hawaii
119 Miami (O)
120 Kansas
121 UTSA
122 New Mexico St.
123 Wyoming
124 Louisiana-Monroe
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.7 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
4 ACC 107.5 108.3 107.1 107.6
5 Big Ten 107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.4 104.2 103.1 103.2
7 AAC 95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
9 MAC 87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.0 88.0 86.2 86.7
11 SBC 81.6 84.0 82.4 82.7

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 5-0 8-1 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
Cincinnati 2-3 5-4 105.3 107.2 107.1 106.5
South Florida 3-2 5-4 93.3 99.1 94.4 95.6
East Carolina 2-4 4-6 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
Connecticut 3-3 5-5 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
Central Florida 0-6 0-10 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 5-0 9-0 109.9 115.9 112.1 112.6
Memphis 4-1 8-1 106.5 107.4 107.1 107.0
Navy 5-0 7-1 104.6 108.1 105.4 106.0
Tulsa 2-3 5-4 90.2 94.5 91.2 92.0
Tulane 1-5 2-7 85.2 87.4 84.4 85.7
SMU 0-5 1-8 83.9 87.8 83.5 85.1
             
AAC Averages     95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 6-0 9-0 122.9 124.1 123.6 123.5
Florida St. 5-2 7-2 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
North Carolina St. 2-3 6-3 110.4 112.2 109.4 110.7
Louisville 4-2 5-4 107.5 110.2 107.3 108.3
Boston College 0-7 3-7 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
Wake Forest 1-5 3-6 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
Syracuse 1-4 3-6 93.3 95.7 92.2 93.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 5-0 8-1 120.3 120.8 120.6 120.6
Georgia Tech 1-5 3-6 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-3 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.2
Duke 3-2 6-3 106.1 106.3 106.2 106.2
Miami 3-2 6-3 104.2 104.7 105.1 104.7
Virginia 2-3 3-6 101.6 99.7 101.3 100.9
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.3 107.1 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 5-0 8-0 127.8 124.0 128.1 126.6
Oklahoma 5-1 8-1 127.0 123.7 127.6 126.1
TCU 5-1 8-1 126.0 117.7 126.4 123.4
Oklahoma St. 6-0 9-0 119.2 116.6 119.8 118.5
West Virginia 1-4 4-4 112.9 106.9 111.9 110.6
Texas Tech 2-5 5-5 107.1 98.9 106.7 104.2
Texas 3-3 4-5 105.0 101.7 105.0 103.9
Kansas St. 0-5 3-5 106.1 96.3 105.3 102.6
Iowa St. 2-4 3-6 99.6 95.9 99.4 98.3
Kansas 0-6 0-9 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-0 9-0 128.5 123.1 129.3 127.0
Michigan 4-1 7-2 119.0 116.2 119.1 118.1
Michigan St. 4-1 8-1 115.5 112.3 114.8 114.2
Penn St. 4-2 7-3 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
Indiana 0-5 4-5 96.5 96.5 95.8 96.3
Maryland 0-5 2-7 95.0 94.1 94.9 94.7
Rutgers 1-5 3-6 94.7 91.4 92.7 92.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 5-1 8-2 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
Iowa 5-0 9-0 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
Nebraska 2-4 4-6 108.4 106.6 107.6 107.5
Illinois 2-3 5-4 105.4 103.9 104.5 104.6
Minnesota 1-4 4-5 105.2 103.5 104.5 104.4
Northwestern 3-2 7-2 104.1 104.3 103.9 104.1
Purdue 1-4 2-7 96.4 95.3 94.9 95.5
             
Big Ten Averages     107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 6-0 8-2 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
Marshall 5-1 8-2 95.4 96.3 95.6 95.8
Middle Tennessee 3-2 4-5 93.3 92.3 92.9 92.8
Florida International 3-3 5-5 89.8 92.2 89.9 90.6
Florida Atlantic 2-4 2-7 82.3 85.4 83.1 83.6
Old Dominion 2-3 4-5 76.3 80.7 75.7 77.6
Charlotte 0-6 2-7 68.4 70.6 68.5 69.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 5-1 7-3 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
Southern Mississippi 4-1 6-3 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
Rice 2-3 4-5 82.8 85.9 82.7 83.8
UT-San Antonio 1-4 1-8 78.8 81.3 79.2 79.8
UTEP 2-3 4-5 77.1 79.8 77.0 78.0
North Texas 1-5 1-8 72.6 76.6 72.7 74.0
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.0 86.2 86.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-1 123.1 120.2 123.1 122.1
BYU   7-2 106.2 105.6 106.8 106.2
Army   2-7 77.9 86.7 79.4 81.3
             
Independents Averages     102.4 104.2 103.1 103.2
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 5-0 7-2 107.8 112.8 110.9 110.5
Ohio 2-3 5-4 85.7 89.8 87.0 87.5
Buffalo 3-2 5-4 83.2 89.3 85.0 85.8
Akron 2-3 4-5 83.2 88.9 84.7 85.6
Massachusetts 0-5 1-8 84.1 86.9 84.8 85.3
Kent St. 2-3 3-6 79.5 82.2 80.1 80.6
Miami (O) 1-5 2-8 74.1 79.0 74.7 75.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-1 7-1 103.2 104.2 104.7 104.0
Western Michigan 5-0 6-3 102.3 103.2 103.7 103.1
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 97.0 100.9 97.9 98.6
Central Michigan 4-1 5-4 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
Ball St. 2-4 3-7 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
Eastern Michigan 0-6 1-9 70.7 76.9 70.0 72.5
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
Utah St. 4-2 5-4 99.5 99.8 99.5 99.6
Air Force 4-1 6-3 96.6 100.8 96.0 97.8
Colorado St. 2-3 4-5 92.7 92.0 91.9 92.2
New Mexico 3-2 5-4 89.0 90.0 88.2 89.1
Wyoming 1-5 1-9 80.1 81.6 78.9 80.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-0 6-3 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
San Jose St. 3-2 4-5 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
Nevada 3-2 5-4 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
UNLV 2-3 3-6 84.0 86.5 85.4 85.3
Hawaii 0-6 2-8 82.0 83.7 80.9 82.2
Fresno St. 1-5 2-7 80.1 83.6 78.1 80.6
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 7-0 8-1 124.2 122.3 124.6 123.7
Oregon 4-2 6-3 117.1 110.8 116.7 114.9
California 2-4 5-4 115.1 109.4 114.2 112.9
Washington 2-4 4-5 110.1 107.1 110.4 109.2
Washington St. 4-2 6-3 107.4 103.8 107.7 106.3
Oregon St. 0-6 2-7 90.4 87.1 88.2 88.6
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 4-2 6-3 122.0 118.1 122.0 120.7
Utah 5-1 8-1 121.9 116.8 121.4 120.0
UCLA 4-2 7-2 122.2 116.2 120.8 119.7
Arizona St. 2-4 4-5 113.6 108.1 112.1 111.3
Arizona 2-5 5-5 107.3 101.9 106.5 105.2
Colorado 1-5 4-6 104.7 99.6 102.4 102.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 3-3 5-4 120.6 116.5 120.4 119.2
Florida 6-1 8-1 119.4 116.0 119.4 118.3
Georgia 4-3 6-3 117.2 110.7 116.1 114.7
Missouri 1-5 4-5 108.4 104.8 107.3 106.8
South Carolina 1-6 3-6 108.3 104.8 106.8 106.6
Kentucky 2-5 4-5 102.5 98.0 100.7 100.4
Vanderbilt 1-4 3-6 101.5 97.7 101.7 100.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-1 8-1 129.6 127.4 129.5 128.8
LSU 4-1 7-1 123.6 120.8 123.7 122.7
Ole Miss 4-2 7-3 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
Arkansas 3-2 5-4 118.8 113.6 118.0 116.8
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 116.7 113.4 117.2 115.8
Auburn 2-4 5-4 116.0 113.6 115.4 115.0
Texas A&M 3-3 6-3 115.6 112.1 113.4 113.7
             
SEC Averages     115.7 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 4-1 7-2 96.4 99.3 98.2 98.0
Georgia Southern 4-1 6-2 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
Arkansas St. 5-0 6-3 92.1 93.2 93.3 92.9
Troy 2-3 3-6 83.7 85.1 85.2 84.7
UL-Lafayette 3-1 4-4 83.5 86.2 83.8 84.5
Georgia St. 1-3 2-6 77.3 77.5 78.0 77.6
Texas St. 1-3 2-6 76.6 79.8 76.2 77.5
South Alabama 2-2 4-4 74.8 80.9 75.9 77.2
Idaho 2-4 3-6 73.0 78.3 74.1 75.1
UL-Monroe 0-5 1-8 73.2 72.1 73.2 72.8
New Mexico St. 2-3 2-7 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.6 84.0 82.4 82.7

NCAA Playoff Projections
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio St.
4 Notre Dame

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Houston      
2 Navy      
3 Temple      
4 Memphis      
5 Boise St.      

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Boston College  
9 Iowa St.  
8 Indiana  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Purdue  
5 Maryland  
4 Syracuse  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.9
2 Harvard 94.2
3 North Dakota St. 91.9
4 McNeese St. 91.7
5 Dartmouth 91.5
6 Dayton 91.3
7 Charleston Southern 90.2
8 South Dakota St. 90.0
9 Illinois St. 89.6
10 Coastal Carolina 89.6

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 10        
Ohio Kent St. 8.7 10.1 9.4
Central Michigan Toledo -10.0 -6.7 9.4
         
Wednesday, November 11        
Buffalo Northern Illinois -10.8 -8.6 -9.9
Western Michigan Bowling Green -2.5 -6.6 -4.2
         
Thursday, November 12        
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette -6.2 -2.8 -5.4
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 5.5 3.4 4.3
         
Friday, November 13        
Colorado USC -14.3 -15.5 -16.6
         
Saturday, November 14        
Duke Pittsburgh 1.8 1.5 1.3
Auburn Georgia 1.8 5.9 2.3
South Carolina Florida -8.1 -8.2 -9.6
Tennessee North Texas 51.0 42.9 50.7
Army Tulane -4.3 2.3 -2.0
West Virginia Texas 10.9 8.2 9.9
Illinois Ohio St. -20.1 -16.2 -21.8
TCU Kansas 53.3 51.4 56.0
Michigan St. Maryland 23.5 21.2 22.9
Northwestern Purdue 10.2 11.5 11.5
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee -8.5 -4.4 -7.3
Miami (O) Akron -7.1 -7.9 -8.0
Old Dominion UTEP 2.2 3.9 1.7
Florida St. North Carolina St. 6.7 5.6 7.0
Louisville Virginia 8.9 13.5 9.0
Charlotte UTSA -7.9 -8.2 -8.2
Air Force Utah St. 0.1 4.0 -0.5
Eastern Michigan Massachusetts -11.4 -8.0 -12.8
Louisana-Monroe Arkansas St. -16.4 -18.6 -17.6
Arizona St. Washington 6.5 4.0 4.7
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) 19.1 19.1 18.5
Notre Dame Wake Forest 30.9 24.7 31.6
Syracuse Clemson -26.6 -25.4 -28.4
Mississippi St. Alabama -9.9 -11 -9.3
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. -16.6 -17.7 -17.4
Marshall Florida Int’l. 8.6 7.1 8.7
Rutgers Nebraska -11.2 -12.7 -12.4
Texas Tech Kansas St. 4.0 5.6 4.4
Indiana Michigan -19.5 -16.7 -20.3
Troy Georgia Southern -9.7 -11.1 -9.1
Rice Southern Miss. -6.4 -5.4 -7.3
Navy SMU 23.7 23.3 24.9
Nevada San Jose St. -0.1 1.1 -0.5
Texas St. Georgia St. 1.8 4.8 0.7
Vanderbilt Kentucky 1.0 1.7 3.0
Idaho Appalachian St. -20.4 -18.0 -21.1
South Florida Temple -12.5 -8.8 -12.1
Colorado St. UNLV 11.7 8.5 9.5
Houston Memphis 6.4 11.5 8.0
LSU Arkansas 7.8 10.2 8.7
Stanford Oregon 10.1 14.5 10.9
Missouri * BYU [3.2] [0.2] [1.5]
Cincinnati Tulsa 18.1 15.7 18.9
Baylor Oklahoma 3.8 3.3 3.5
Iowa Minnesota 8.5 12.4 9.8
Arizona Utah -11.6 -11.9 -11.9
Boise St. New Mexico 26.4 22.0 26.9
San Diego St. Wyoming 26.9 29.8 29.6
California Oregon St. 27.7 25.3 29.0
UCLA Washington St. 17.8 15.4 16.1
Hawaii Fresno St. 5.9 4.1 6.8
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 11 PiRate    
Texas A&M Western Carolina 29    
         
* Ongoing Strike of Missouri Football Team May Force Forfeiture Of This Game In Kansas City

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Appalachian St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Washington St. vs. San Diego St.
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Michigan vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Washington * ^ vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. California *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Arkansas St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Toledo
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. BYU
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Houston vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Oregon
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Akron * vs. UTEP
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten North Carolina St. vs. Rutgers
Independence SEC ACC Arkansas vs. Miami (Fla)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Navy vs. Virginia Tech
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Ohio * vs. Nevada *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Buffalo * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Colorado St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Kentucky
Belk ACC SEC Duke vs. Auburn
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 North Carolina vs. Michigan
Cotton Playoff Playoff Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
Orange Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. Ohio St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. USC
Ouback Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Florida
Sugar Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. LSU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Temple
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Mississippi St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Ole Miss
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Stanford vs. Alabama
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Washington qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

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