Home | Visitor | Spread |
Charlotte | Eastern Kentucky | 3.3 |
Vanderbilt | UAB | 1.2 |
Utah Valley | Cincinnati | -0.2 |
March 22, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 22, 2023
September 25, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Football–September 29-October 1
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
BYU | Utah St. | 23.2 | 21.6 | 22.5 |
Houston | Tulane | 3.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 |
Middle Tennessee | UTSA | -7.3 | -4.7 | -5.9 |
Boise St. | San Diego St. | 7.3 | 6.6 | 7.5 |
UCLA | Washington | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.9 |
UNLV | New Mexico | 10.7 | 8.5 | 11.9 |
Wisconsin | Illinois | 11.3 | 10.1 | 12.1 |
Penn St. | Northwestern | 25.1 | 23.9 | 26.9 |
Boston College | Louisville | -10.6 | -8.3 | -10.9 |
Coastal Carolina | Georgia Southern | 7.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
Florida St. | Wake Forest | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.5 |
Army | Georgia St. | 6.8 | 7.8 | 5.1 |
Clemson | North Carolina St. | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.0 |
Pittsburgh | Georgia Tech | 25.8 | 25.1 | 26.4 |
Maryland | Michigan St. | 1.3 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
Duke | Virginia | -8.9 | -6.5 | -9.5 |
North Carolina | Virginia Tech | 11.6 | 11.3 | 13.6 |
Old Dominion | Liberty | -3.1 | -4.6 | -5.1 |
South Florida | East Carolina | -4.6 | -5.5 | -6.4 |
Central Florida | SMU | 4.9 | 6.3 | 5.4 |
Ball St. | Northern Illinois | -10.9 | -10.5 | -11.2 |
Minnesota | Purdue | 10.7 | 11.3 | 13.2 |
James Madison | Texas St. | 16.2 | 17.1 | 20.4 |
Air Force | Navy | 16.2 | 17.3 | 19.0 |
Baylor | Oklahoma St. | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
Kansas | Iowa St. | -2.7 | -4.2 | -5.4 |
Louisiana | South Alabama | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
Memphis | Temple | 20.2 | 18.3 | 22.0 |
Tulsa | Cincinnati | -12.1 | -12.1 | -13.4 |
Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts | 16.6 | 16.8 | 19.3 |
Utah | Oregon St. | 10.3 | 9.9 | 11.4 |
New Mexico St. | Florida Int’l. | 15.6 | 14.9 | 16.9 |
Washington St. | California | 6.4 | 6.9 | 6.1 |
Arizona | Colorado | 7.8 | 9.5 | 8.8 |
USC | Arizona St. | 13.9 | 14.9 | 14.5 |
Oregon | Stanford | 14.5 | 16.4 | 15.9 |
Ole Miss | Kentucky | 7.2 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
Kansas St. | Texas Tech | 7.5 | 7.6 | 6.3 |
Ohio St. | Rutgers | 33.0 | 32.4 | 37.0 |
Mississippi St. | Texas A&M | 6.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
TCU | Oklahoma | -3.8 | -4.1 | -4.6 |
Iowa | Michigan | -7.4 | -7.3 | -9.0 |
Texas | West Virginia | 8.8 | 7.9 | 9.1 |
Auburn | LSU | -6.0 | -6.8 | -7.1 |
Arkansas | Alabama | -12.9 | -13.7 | -13.9 |
Missouri | Georgia | -28.2 | -26.3 | -30.6 |
Toledo | Central Michigan | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
Buffalo | Miami (O) | -4.3 | -4.5 | -4.8 |
Connecticut | Fresno St. | -20.6 | -19.0 | -24.0 |
Akron | Bowling Green | -9.0 | -7.2 | -8.8 |
Kent St. | Ohio | 9.2 | 9.2 | 8.3 |
Arkansas St. | Louisiana-Monroe | 3.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
North Texas | Florida Atlantic | -3.1 | -5.3 | -2.2 |
Charlotte | UTEP | -4.4 | -3.3 | -4.9 |
Nebraska | Indiana | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
Western Kentucky | Troy | 11.6 | 11.1 | 12.3 |
Rice | UAB | -11.9 | -12.4 | -13.9 |
Wyoming | San Jose St. | -0.9 | 0.7 | -0.8 |
FBS vs. FCS Spreads
FBS | FCS | PiRate |
Appalachian St. | The Citadel | 32.4 |
Florida | Eastern Washington | 27.4 |
Marshall | Gardner-Webb | 27.7 |
Western Michigan | New Hampshire | 20.4 |
South Carolina | South Carolina St. | 32.5 |
Syracuse | Wagner | 51.0 |
Teams With A Bye This Week
Colorado St. |
Hawaii |
Louisiana Tech |
Miami (Fla.) |
Nevada |
Notre Dame |
Southern Miss. |
Tennessee |
Vanderbilt |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Georgia | 132.8 |
2 | Alabama | 131.3 |
3 | Ohio St. | 130.9 |
4 | Michigan | 123.9 |
5 | Minnesota | 121.3 |
6 | Clemson | 118.5 |
7 | Oklahoma | 118.3 |
8 | Tennessee | 117.7 |
9 | Penn St. | 117.6 |
10 | Utah | 117.0 |
11 | Oklahoma St. | 116.8 |
12 | NC State | 116.6 |
13 | L S U | 115.3 |
14 | Ole Miss | 115.1 |
15 | Wisconsin | 115.0 |
16 | Baylor | 114.9 |
17 | Arkansas | 114.8 |
18 | Pittsburgh | 114.0 |
19 | Florida St. | 113.9 |
20 | Mississippi St. | 113.8 |
21 | Iowa | 113.0 |
22 | Oregon | 113.0 |
23 | Purdue | 112.6 |
24 | Cincinnati | 112.6 |
25 | Kentucky | 112.5 |
26 | U S C | 112.5 |
27 | Notre Dame | 112.5 |
28 | Texas A&M | 112.2 |
29 | Texas | 112.2 |
30 | Kansas St. | 112.0 |
31 | Michigan St. | 111.9 |
32 | T C U | 111.6 |
33 | Maryland | 111.1 |
34 | Miami (Fla.) | 110.3 |
35 | BYU | 110.2 |
36 | Louisville | 109.9 |
37 | Washington | 109.6 |
38 | Oregon St. | 109.5 |
39 | Iowa St. | 109.4 |
40 | U C L A | 109.1 |
41 | Syracuse | 107.9 |
42 | Texas Tech | 107.8 |
43 | South Carolina | 107.4 |
44 | West Virginia | 106.6 |
45 | UCF | 106.5 |
46 | Wake Forest | 106.5 |
47 | Florida | 106.4 |
48 | North Carolina | 106.2 |
49 | Illinois | 105.9 |
50 | Auburn | 105.6 |
51 | SMU | 104.0 |
52 | Washington St. | 103.6 |
53 | Air Force | 103.4 |
54 | Kansas | 102.3 |
55 | W. Kentucky | 102.1 |
56 | Fresno St. | 101.9 |
57 | Houston | 101.5 |
58 | Missouri | 101.4 |
59 | Virginia | 101.4 |
60 | Arizona St. | 101.1 |
61 | Tulane | 100.7 |
62 | Nebraska | 100.6 |
63 | Stanford | 100.4 |
64 | California | 100.1 |
65 | East Carolina | 100.0 |
66 | Rutgers | 99.8 |
67 | Indiana | 99.5 |
68 | Boise St. | 99.3 |
69 | U A B | 99.1 |
70 | Army | 98.6 |
71 | Appalachian St. | 98.6 |
72 | Memphis | 98.0 |
73 | Boston College | 97.4 |
74 | Virginia Tech | 97.1 |
75 | Tulsa | 97.0 |
76 | Coastal Carolina | 96.9 |
77 | U T S A | 96.8 |
78 | Liberty | 96.8 |
79 | James Madison | 96.6 |
80 | N. Illinois | 96.4 |
81 | Northwestern | 95.3 |
82 | San Diego St. | 95.2 |
83 | Arizona | 95.2 |
84 | Marshall | 94.8 |
85 | Georgia St. | 94.5 |
86 | Toledo | 94.5 |
87 | Central Mich. | 94.3 |
88 | Miami (Ohio) | 93.8 |
89 | Vanderbilt | 93.7 |
90 | Troy | 93.0 |
91 | South Alabama | 92.9 |
92 | Louisiana | 92.7 |
93 | U N L V | 92.1 |
94 | USF | 92.0 |
95 | Kent St. | 91.5 |
96 | San Jose St. | 91.3 |
97 | Georgia Tech | 91.2 |
98 | Duke | 90.6 |
99 | Old Dominion | 90.5 |
100 | Ga. Southern | 90.5 |
101 | Western Mich. | 90.3 |
102 | Florida Atlantic | 90.2 |
103 | Southern Miss. | 90.1 |
104 | Colorado | 89.5 |
105 | Utah St. | 89.3 |
106 | Navy | 88.9 |
107 | Middle Tennessee | 88.3 |
108 | Wyoming | 87.9 |
109 | Buffalo | 86.7 |
110 | U T E P | 86.6 |
111 | Bowling Green | 86.4 |
112 | Eastern Mich. | 85.6 |
113 | Nevada | 85.4 |
114 | Arkansas St. | 85.1 |
115 | Ohio | 85.1 |
116 | New Mexico | 84.2 |
117 | North Texas | 84.2 |
118 | Rice | 83.9 |
119 | UL-Monroe | 83.6 |
120 | Ball St. | 83.6 |
121 | Colorado St. | 81.6 |
122 | Texas St. | 81.2 |
123 | Louisiana Tech | 81.0 |
124 | Temple | 80.9 |
125 | Charlotte | 79.8 |
126 | Connecticut | 77.7 |
127 | Akron | 76.0 |
128 | New Mexico St. | 75.2 |
129 | Hawaii | 71.2 |
130 | Massachusetts | 70.6 |
131 | Florida Int’l. | 61.9 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Cincinnati | 112.2 | 111.7 | 113.8 | 112.6 |
UCF | 106.1 | 106.8 | 106.7 | 106.5 |
SMU | 104.3 | 103.4 | 104.3 | 104.0 |
Houston | 101.7 | 100.8 | 102.0 | 101.5 |
Tulane | 101.1 | 100.5 | 100.5 | 100.7 |
East Carolina | 99.9 | 99.5 | 100.6 | 100.0 |
Memphis | 98.0 | 98.3 | 97.7 | 98.0 |
Tulsa | 97.2 | 96.6 | 97.3 | 97.0 |
USF | 92.8 | 91.5 | 91.7 | 92.0 |
Navy | 89.7 | 88.8 | 88.2 | 88.9 |
Temple | 80.8 | 83.0 | 78.7 | 80.9 |
AAC | 98.5 | 98.2 | 98.3 | 98.4 |
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||
Atlantic Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Clemson | 118.5 | 118.3 | 118.8 | 118.5 |
NC State | 117.0 | 116.0 | 116.8 | 116.6 |
Florida St. | 114.1 | 113.8 | 113.9 | 113.9 |
Louisville | 110.6 | 109.5 | 109.6 | 109.9 |
Syracuse | 108.7 | 107.6 | 107.3 | 107.9 |
Wake Forest | 106.7 | 106.4 | 106.4 | 106.5 |
Boston College | 97.4 | 98.7 | 96.2 | 97.4 |
Coastal Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Pittsburgh | 114.9 | 113.8 | 113.4 | 114.0 |
Miami (Fla.) | 110.8 | 109.6 | 110.4 | 110.3 |
North Carolina | 106.3 | 106.4 | 106.1 | 106.2 |
Virginia | 102.0 | 102.0 | 100.2 | 101.4 |
Virginia Tech | 97.7 | 98.0 | 95.5 | 97.1 |
Georgia Tech | 92.1 | 91.7 | 90.0 | 91.2 |
Duke | 90.6 | 93.0 | 88.2 | 90.6 |
ACC | 106.2 | 106.0 | 105.2 | 105.8 |
Big 12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oklahoma | 118.7 | 117.7 | 118.6 | 118.3 |
Oklahoma St. | 117.4 | 115.9 | 117.2 | 116.8 |
Baylor | 115.4 | 114.4 | 115.0 | 114.9 |
Texas | 112.9 | 111.8 | 111.8 | 112.2 |
Kansas St. | 112.7 | 111.4 | 111.9 | 112.0 |
T C U | 112.4 | 111.1 | 111.5 | 111.6 |
Iowa St. | 109.3 | 109.3 | 109.5 | 109.4 |
Texas Tech | 108.1 | 106.8 | 108.6 | 107.8 |
West Virginia | 107.1 | 106.9 | 105.7 | 106.6 |
Kansas | 103.7 | 102.1 | 101.1 | 102.3 |
Big 12 | 111.7 | 110.7 | 111.1 | 111.2 |
Big Ten Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio St. | 131.2 | 129.7 | 132.0 | 130.9 |
Michigan | 124.4 | 123.2 | 124.2 | 123.9 |
Penn St. | 117.7 | 117.7 | 117.6 | 117.6 |
Michigan St. | 112.9 | 111.7 | 111.1 | 111.9 |
Maryland | 111.2 | 111.2 | 111.1 | 111.1 |
Rutgers | 101.1 | 100.3 | 98.0 | 99.8 |
Indiana | 100.7 | 99.9 | 98.0 | 99.5 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Minnesota | 121.3 | 120.8 | 121.7 | 121.3 |
Wisconsin | 115.5 | 114.9 | 114.6 | 115.0 |
Iowa | 114.0 | 112.9 | 112.2 | 113.0 |
Purdue | 113.6 | 112.5 | 111.5 | 112.6 |
Illinois | 106.3 | 106.9 | 104.6 | 105.9 |
Nebraska | 101.2 | 100.9 | 99.8 | 100.6 |
Northwestern | 95.6 | 96.7 | 93.7 | 95.3 |
Big Ten | 111.9 | 111.4 | 110.7 | 111.3 |
Conference USA | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
W. Kentucky | 101.3 | 101.4 | 103.7 | 102.1 |
U A B | 98.5 | 98.7 | 100.1 | 99.1 |
U T S A | 97.3 | 95.9 | 97.2 | 96.8 |
Florida Atlantic | 89.8 | 91.1 | 89.8 | 90.2 |
Middle Tennessee | 87.5 | 88.7 | 88.8 | 88.3 |
U T E P | 86.7 | 86.3 | 86.6 | 86.6 |
North Texas | 84.2 | 83.3 | 85.1 | 84.2 |
Rice | 84.1 | 83.8 | 83.7 | 83.9 |
Louisiana Tech | 80.9 | 82.2 | 79.7 | 81.0 |
Charlotte | 79.7 | 80.5 | 79.3 | 79.8 |
Florida Int’l. | 61.6 | 64.2 | 59.9 | 61.9 |
CUSA | 86.5 | 86.9 | 86.7 | 86.7 |
FBS Independents | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Notre Dame | 112.9 | 111.3 | 113.2 | 112.5 |
BYU | 110.8 | 109.2 | 110.6 | 110.2 |
Army | 98.4 | 98.8 | 98.7 | 98.6 |
Liberty | 95.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 | 96.8 |
Connecticut | 78.2 | 79.1 | 75.8 | 77.7 |
New Mexico St. | 74.7 | 76.6 | 74.3 | 75.2 |
Massachusetts | 71.3 | 71.8 | 68.6 | 70.6 |
Independents | 91.7 | 92.0 | 91.2 | 91.6 |
Mid-American Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Ohio) | 92.1 | 94.7 | 94.5 | 93.8 |
Kent St. | 90.6 | 92.8 | 91.1 | 91.5 |
Buffalo | 85.3 | 87.7 | 87.2 | 86.7 |
Bowling Green | 87.0 | 85.9 | 86.2 | 86.4 |
Ohio | 83.9 | 86.0 | 85.3 | 85.1 |
Akron | 76.0 | 76.7 | 75.4 | 76.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
N. Illinois | 96.2 | 96.6 | 96.5 | 96.4 |
Toledo | 93.7 | 94.7 | 95.2 | 94.5 |
Central Mich. | 92.8 | 94.6 | 95.5 | 94.3 |
Western Mich. | 89.8 | 90.6 | 90.5 | 90.3 |
Eastern Mich. | 85.4 | 86.0 | 85.4 | 85.6 |
Ball St. | 83.3 | 84.2 | 83.3 | 83.6 |
MAC | 88.0 | 89.2 | 88.8 | 88.7 |
Mountain West Conference | ||||
Mountain Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Air Force | 102.9 | 103.1 | 104.3 | 103.4 |
Boise St. | 99.5 | 98.5 | 99.9 | 99.3 |
Utah St. | 89.1 | 89.1 | 89.6 | 89.3 |
Wyoming | 86.7 | 88.9 | 88.2 | 87.9 |
New Mexico | 84.5 | 84.8 | 83.4 | 84.2 |
Colorado St. | 81.4 | 82.2 | 81.4 | 81.6 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Fresno St. | 101.8 | 101.1 | 102.8 | 101.9 |
San Diego St. | 95.2 | 94.9 | 95.4 | 95.2 |
U N L V | 92.6 | 90.7 | 92.9 | 92.1 |
San Jose St. | 90.6 | 91.2 | 92.0 | 91.3 |
Nevada | 84.9 | 86.6 | 84.8 | 85.4 |
Hawaii | 70.7 | 71.9 | 71.1 | 71.2 |
MWC | 90.0 | 90.2 | 90.5 | 90.2 |
Pac-12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Utah | 116.8 | 115.9 | 118.5 | 117.0 |
Oregon | 113.4 | 112.8 | 112.8 | 113.0 |
U S C | 111.9 | 112.5 | 113.1 | 112.5 |
Washington | 108.9 | 109.8 | 110.2 | 109.6 |
Oregon St. | 109.4 | 108.9 | 110.1 | 109.5 |
U C L A | 108.7 | 108.6 | 110.1 | 109.1 |
Washington St. | 103.0 | 103.7 | 104.0 | 103.6 |
Arizona St. | 101.0 | 100.6 | 101.6 | 101.1 |
Stanford | 101.9 | 99.4 | 99.9 | 100.4 |
California | 99.6 | 99.8 | 101.0 | 100.1 |
Arizona | 95.3 | 95.1 | 95.1 | 95.2 |
Colorado | 90.5 | 88.6 | 89.3 | 89.5 |
Pac-12 | 105.0 | 104.6 | 105.5 | 105.0 |
Southeastern Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia | 132.8 | 131.4 | 134.2 | 132.8 |
Tennessee | 117.5 | 117.6 | 117.9 | 117.7 |
Kentucky | 111.9 | 112.6 | 113.1 | 112.5 |
South Carolina | 107.7 | 106.9 | 107.5 | 107.4 |
Florida | 105.8 | 107.3 | 106.2 | 106.4 |
Missouri | 101.6 | 102.0 | 100.6 | 101.4 |
Vanderbilt | 93.9 | 94.7 | 92.4 | 93.7 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Alabama | 131.1 | 130.3 | 132.4 | 131.3 |
L S U | 115.7 | 115.0 | 115.1 | 115.3 |
Ole Miss | 116.2 | 114.4 | 114.7 | 115.1 |
Arkansas | 115.2 | 113.6 | 115.5 | 114.8 |
Mississippi St. | 114.7 | 113.2 | 113.5 | 113.8 |
Texas A&M | 111.4 | 112.3 | 112.9 | 112.2 |
Auburn | 106.7 | 105.2 | 105.0 | 105.6 |
SEC | 113.0 | 112.6 | 112.9 | 112.9 |
Sunbelt Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Appalachian St. | 97.2 | 98.8 | 99.6 | 98.6 |
Coastal Carolina | 95.6 | 97.1 | 97.9 | 96.9 |
James Madison | 94.3 | 96.3 | 99.2 | 96.6 |
Marshall | 94.4 | 95.3 | 94.7 | 94.8 |
Georgia St. | 94.1 | 93.4 | 96.1 | 94.5 |
Old Dominion | 90.5 | 90.6 | 90.4 | 90.5 |
Ga. Southern | 90.4 | 90.1 | 90.9 | 90.5 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Troy | 92.2 | 92.8 | 93.9 | 93.0 |
South Alabama | 92.1 | 92.8 | 93.9 | 92.9 |
Louisiana | 92.0 | 92.2 | 93.7 | 92.7 |
Southern Miss. | 89.7 | 90.3 | 90.3 | 90.1 |
Arkansas St. | 84.3 | 85.8 | 85.2 | 85.1 |
UL-Monroe | 83.7 | 83.9 | 83.3 | 83.6 |
Texas St. | 80.6 | 81.7 | 81.3 | 81.2 |
Sun Belt | 90.8 | 91.5 | 92.2 | 91.5 |
Conference Ratings
Rank | Conference | Rating |
1 | Southeastern | 112.9 |
2 | Big Ten | 111.3 |
3 | Big 12 | 111.2 |
4 | Atlantic Coast | 105.8 |
5 | Pac-12 | 105.0 |
6 | American Athletic | 98.4 |
7 | Independents | 91.6 |
8 | Sun Belt | 91.5 |
9 | Mountain West | 90.2 |
10 | Mid-American | 88.7 |
11 | Conference USA | 86.7 |
Coming In October
As October leads the College Football worlds into mostly conference play, it’s time to start looking ahead at the Playoffs and Bowl Projections. The PiRates do it a bit differently from others. We don’t make our projections based on what each team has done to the present time, like most others. We first forecast the rest of the season and then make our projections based on what we believe the standings will be. Additionally, we plan to do our best to explain the inexact rules for where teams can go. No longer can you look and see who will finish 3rd in a conference and then know where the 3rd place team is automatically slotted to go bowling. It’s more like the 1960’s, where the bowls can choose which teams they want with the help of the conferences that have the tie-ins. In the case of many bowls, multiple conferences can be in the mix, and ESPN can steer the teams into the bowls they want them to appear so as to attempt to get their maximum TV ratings.
This Week’s Playoff Projections
1.) Alabama
2.) Ohio State
3.) Georgia
4.) USC
Top Group of 5 (For The Cotton Bowl Bid)
1.) Cincinnati
2.) Central Florida
3.) Coastal Carolina
4.) Air Force
5.) Middle Tennessee
September 11, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Football–September 16-17, 2022
This Week’s Spreads
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Louisville | Florida St. | -0.5 | -1.1 | -0.9 |
Wyoming | Air Force | -17.9 | -15.3 | -18.2 |
Miami (O) | Cincinnati | -18.8 | -15.0 | -17.7 |
Michigan | Connecticut | 48.7 | 45.9 | 51.5 |
Syracuse | Purdue | -5.1 | -4.9 | -4.3 |
Temple | Rutgers | -22.8 | -19.7 | -22.5 |
Baylor | Texas St. | 37.5 | 35.2 | 36.0 |
Indiana | Western Kentucky | 6.6 | 6.2 | 0.9 |
South Carolina | Georgia | -20.7 | -19.7 | -22.6 |
Nebraska | Oklahoma | -11.5 | -10.6 | -12.9 |
Coastal Carolina | Buffalo | 13.5 | 12.4 | 14.2 |
Iowa St. | Ohio | 28.0 | 25.4 | 26.3 |
New Mexico | UTEP | 0.7 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
Virginia | Old Dominion | 13.9 | 14.0 | 11.9 |
UCLA | South Alabama | 22.1 | 21.5 | 22.2 |
Notre Dame | California | 18.1 | 16.1 | 17.2 |
UNLV | North Texas | 4.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
Kansas St. | Tulane | 15.0 | 14.2 | 14.7 |
Wisconsin | New Mexico St. | 43.9 | 41.0 | 43.3 |
Auburn | Penn St. | -2.8 | -4.2 | -3.6 |
Northern Illinois | Vanderbilt | 5.5 | 4.8 | 7.8 |
Minnesota | Colorado | 23.5 | 24.8 | 25.1 |
Georgia Tech | Ole Miss | -16.4 | -14.6 | -16.8 |
Oregon | BYU | 0.8 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
UAB | Georgia Southern | 10.2 | 10.8 | 11.2 |
Appalachian St. | Troy | 10.1 | 11.8 | 11.6 |
Houston | Kansas | 6.4 | 8.0 | 10.7 |
Alabama | UL-Monroe | 49.5 | 48.0 | 51.7 |
Washington St. | Colorado St. | 19.2 | 19.0 | 19.8 |
Wake Forest | Liberty | 14.6 | 12.1 | 11.4 |
Bowling Green | Marshall | -6.3 | -8.9 | -7.8 |
LSU | Mississippi St. | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
Ohio St. | Toledo | 34.5 | 31.1 | 33.1 |
Tennessee | Akron | 43.5 | 42.8 | 44.5 |
Georgia St. | Charlotte | 23.6 | 21.6 | 26.8 |
North Carolina St. | Texas Tech | 12.5 | 13.0 | 12.2 |
Memphis | Arkansas St. | 16.6 | 15.5 | 15.8 |
Florida Atlantic | Central Florida | -13.9 | -12.8 | -14.2 |
Florida | South Florida | 13.9 | 17.3 | 15.5 |
Maryland | SMU | 8.8 | 9.7 | 8.0 |
Washington | Michigan St. | -10.1 | -7.8 | -6.8 |
Western Michigan | Pittsburgh | -20.1 | -17.6 | -16.9 |
Iowa | Nevada | 31.1 | 27.4 | 28.9 |
Rice | Lousiana | -13.9 | -15.0 | -17.6 |
Texas | UTSA | 18.3 | 18.7 | 17.2 |
Clemson | Louisiana Tech | 41.9 | 40.3 | 44.2 |
Texas A&M | Miami (Fla.) | -2.6 | 0.1 | -1.0 |
Utah | San Diego St. | 23.6 | 22.3 | 25.0 |
USC | Fresno St. | 9.1 | 10.4 | 8.7 |
Arizona St. | Eastern Michigan | 21.7 | 20.9 | 23.0 |
FBS vs. FCS Games
FBS | FCS | PiRate |
Arizona | North Dakota St. | 3.3 |
Arkansas | Missouri St. | 31.3 |
Army | Villanova | 11.8 |
Ball St. | Murray St. | 21.6 |
Boise St. | UT-Martin | 24.3 |
Boston College | Maine | 27.1 |
Central Michigan | Bucknell | 37.3 |
Duke | North Carolina A&T | 25.4 |
East Carolina | Campbell | 30.4 |
Hawaii | Duquesne | 12.0 |
Kent St. | Long Island | 28.8 |
Kentucky | Youngstown St. | 33.7 |
Massachusetts | Stony Brook | -1.0 |
Middle Tennessee | Tennessee St. | 24.6 |
Missouri | Abilene Christian | 28.4 |
Northwestern | Southern Illinois | 18.6 |
Oklahoma St. | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 54.3 |
Oregon St. | Montana St. | 18.3 |
Southern Miss. | Northwestern St. | 25.4 |
Tulsa | Jacksonville St. | 20.5 |
Virginia Tech | Wofford | 31.2 |
West Virginia | Towson St. | 32.6 |
Teams With Bye Weeks
Navy |
North Carolina |
TCU |
Illinois |
Florida Int’l. |
Utah St. |
San Jose St. |
Stanford |
James Madison |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Georgia | 133.2 |
2 | Alabama | 129.1 |
3 | Ohio St. | 126.6 |
4 | Michigan | 124.0 |
5 | Clemson | 120.5 |
6 | Oklahoma | 118.5 |
7 | Michigan St. | 117.6 |
8 | NC State | 117.1 |
9 | Tennessee | 117.0 |
10 | Oklahoma St. | 116.4 |
11 | Utah | 116.1 |
12 | Arkansas | 115.8 |
13 | Purdue | 115.7 |
14 | Penn St. | 115.6 |
15 | Miami (Fla.) | 115.5 |
16 | Wisconsin | 115.3 |
17 | Mississippi St. | 114.9 |
18 | Baylor | 114.6 |
19 | Minnesota | 114.5 |
20 | Pittsburgh | 114.1 |
21 | Kentucky | 113.6 |
22 | L S U | 113.5 |
23 | BYU | 113.0 |
24 | Ole Miss | 113.0 |
25 | Iowa | 112.5 |
26 | Texas | 112.3 |
27 | Notre Dame | 112.2 |
28 | Florida St. | 112.2 |
29 | Kansas St. | 112.0 |
30 | Cincinnati | 111.9 |
31 | Texas A&M | 111.4 |
32 | Oregon | 111.0 |
33 | T C U | 110.4 |
34 | Maryland | 110.1 |
35 | U S C | 109.9 |
36 | U C L A | 109.4 |
37 | Iowa St. | 109.3 |
38 | South Carolina | 109.2 |
39 | Auburn | 109.1 |
40 | Oregon St. | 108.6 |
41 | Louisville | 108.3 |
42 | Syracuse | 107.9 |
43 | Texas Tech | 107.5 |
44 | North Carolina | 107.4 |
45 | Florida | 107.0 |
46 | Wake Forest | 106.8 |
47 | Washington | 106.3 |
48 | UCF | 105.2 |
49 | Illinois | 105.2 |
50 | Arizona St. | 105.1 |
51 | Houston | 105.0 |
52 | Air Force | 104.6 |
53 | SMU | 104.3 |
54 | Boise St. | 104.1 |
55 | Nebraska | 103.8 |
56 | West Virginia | 103.5 |
57 | Fresno St. | 103.5 |
58 | Missouri | 102.0 |
59 | Rutgers | 101.9 |
60 | Washington St. | 101.9 |
61 | Virginia | 101.7 |
62 | East Carolina | 101.4 |
63 | Stanford | 101.1 |
64 | Indiana | 100.4 |
65 | Tulane | 100.3 |
66 | Appalachian St. | 100.2 |
67 | Virginia Tech | 100.0 |
68 | Kansas | 99.7 |
69 | Georgia St. | 99.5 |
70 | Boston College | 99.2 |
71 | Northwestern | 98.9 |
72 | U A B | 98.7 |
73 | Memphis | 98.5 |
74 | W. Kentucky | 98.3 |
75 | California | 98.1 |
76 | Louisiana | 98.0 |
77 | U T S A | 97.3 |
78 | Army | 97.2 |
79 | N. Illinois | 97.1 |
80 | Toledo | 96.7 |
81 | Liberty | 96.6 |
82 | Arizona | 96.3 |
83 | Marshall | 96.3 |
84 | San Diego St. | 95.5 |
85 | Tulsa | 94.9 |
86 | James Madison | 94.8 |
87 | Georgia Tech | 94.0 |
88 | Coastal Carolina | 93.8 |
89 | Vanderbilt | 93.6 |
90 | USF | 93.4 |
91 | Western Mich. | 93.4 |
92 | Colorado | 93.1 |
93 | Central Mich. | 93.0 |
94 | Miami (Ohio) | 92.8 |
95 | Troy | 91.5 |
96 | Ga. Southern | 90.5 |
97 | South Alabama | 90.4 |
98 | Old Dominion | 90.4 |
99 | Utah St. | 90.0 |
100 | Florida Atlantic | 89.6 |
101 | Duke | 89.4 |
102 | U N L V | 88.4 |
103 | Kent St. | 88.3 |
104 | San Jose St. | 88.1 |
105 | Navy | 87.0 |
106 | North Texas | 87.0 |
107 | Southern Miss. | 86.6 |
108 | Nevada | 86.4 |
109 | Eastern Mich. | 86.2 |
110 | Bowling Green | 86.2 |
111 | Ohio | 85.8 |
112 | Colorado St. | 85.5 |
113 | U T E P | 85.1 |
114 | Wyoming | 84.9 |
115 | Arkansas St. | 84.5 |
116 | Middle Tennessee | 84.0 |
117 | Ball St. | 83.4 |
118 | Buffalo | 83.4 |
119 | New Mexico | 83.2 |
120 | UL-Monroe | 82.4 |
121 | Louisiana Tech | 81.4 |
122 | Texas St. | 80.9 |
123 | Rice | 79.9 |
124 | Connecticut | 78.3 |
125 | Temple | 78.3 |
126 | Charlotte | 78.0 |
127 | Akron | 76.4 |
128 | New Mexico St. | 75.5 |
129 | Hawaii | 72.6 |
130 | Massachusetts | 71.5 |
131 | Florida Int’l. | 65.3 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Cincinnati | 111.7 | 110.8 | 113.3 | 111.9 |
UCF | 104.9 | 105.4 | 105.4 | 105.2 |
Houston | 104.8 | 104.3 | 106.0 | 105.0 |
SMU | 104.4 | 103.6 | 104.8 | 104.3 |
East Carolina | 101.1 | 100.8 | 102.2 | 101.4 |
Tulane | 100.8 | 100.1 | 100.1 | 100.3 |
Memphis | 98.4 | 98.8 | 98.3 | 98.5 |
Tulsa | 95.1 | 94.5 | 95.1 | 94.9 |
USF | 94.4 | 92.8 | 93.2 | 93.4 |
Navy | 88.0 | 87.0 | 86.1 | 87.0 |
Temple | 78.3 | 80.7 | 75.8 | 78.3 |
AAC | 98.4 | 98.1 | 98.2 | 98.2 |
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||
Atlantic Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Clemson | 120.3 | 120.2 | 121.1 | 120.5 |
NC State | 117.4 | 116.4 | 117.5 | 117.1 |
Florida St. | 112.6 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.2 |
Louisville | 109.1 | 107.9 | 108.1 | 108.3 |
Syracuse | 108.7 | 107.6 | 107.4 | 107.9 |
Wake Forest | 107.2 | 106.7 | 106.6 | 106.8 |
Boston College | 99.0 | 100.6 | 98.0 | 99.2 |
Coastal Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Fla.) | 116.1 | 114.7 | 115.8 | 115.5 |
Pittsburgh | 115.2 | 113.9 | 113.3 | 114.1 |
North Carolina | 107.3 | 107.6 | 107.3 | 107.4 |
Virginia | 102.3 | 102.4 | 100.3 | 101.7 |
Virginia Tech | 100.5 | 101.0 | 98.4 | 100.0 |
Georgia Tech | 94.8 | 94.6 | 92.8 | 94.0 |
Duke | 89.4 | 92.0 | 86.8 | 89.4 |
ACC | 107.1 | 107.0 | 106.1 | 106.7 |
Big 12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oklahoma | 118.8 | 117.8 | 118.9 | 118.5 |
Oklahoma St. | 117.0 | 115.5 | 116.8 | 116.4 |
Baylor | 115.3 | 114.0 | 114.5 | 114.6 |
Texas | 113.0 | 112.1 | 111.9 | 112.3 |
Kansas St. | 112.8 | 111.3 | 111.8 | 112.0 |
T C U | 111.4 | 109.9 | 110.1 | 110.4 |
Iowa St. | 109.3 | 109.2 | 109.5 | 109.3 |
Texas Tech | 107.9 | 106.4 | 108.3 | 107.5 |
West Virginia | 104.1 | 103.7 | 102.6 | 103.5 |
Kansas | 101.4 | 99.3 | 98.4 | 99.7 |
Big 12 | 111.1 | 109.9 | 110.3 | 110.4 |
Big Ten Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio St. | 127.2 | 125.2 | 127.6 | 126.6 |
Michigan | 124.5 | 123.0 | 124.5 | 124.0 |
Michigan St. | 118.6 | 117.4 | 116.7 | 117.6 |
Penn St. | 115.8 | 115.7 | 115.4 | 115.6 |
Maryland | 110.2 | 110.3 | 109.9 | 110.1 |
Rutgers | 103.1 | 102.4 | 100.3 | 101.9 |
Indiana | 101.6 | 101.0 | 98.6 | 100.4 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Purdue | 116.7 | 115.5 | 114.7 | 115.7 |
Wisconsin | 115.8 | 115.1 | 114.8 | 115.3 |
Minnesota | 114.6 | 114.0 | 115.0 | 114.5 |
Iowa | 113.7 | 112.2 | 111.7 | 112.5 |
Illinois | 105.6 | 106.2 | 103.9 | 105.2 |
Nebraska | 104.3 | 104.2 | 103.0 | 103.8 |
Northwestern | 99.2 | 100.3 | 97.1 | 98.9 |
Big Ten | 112.2 | 111.6 | 110.9 | 111.6 |
Conference USA | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
U A B | 98.1 | 98.3 | 99.7 | 98.7 |
W. Kentucky | 97.5 | 97.3 | 100.2 | 98.3 |
U T S A | 97.7 | 96.3 | 97.7 | 97.3 |
Florida Atlantic | 89.0 | 90.6 | 89.2 | 89.6 |
North Texas | 86.9 | 86.1 | 88.0 | 87.0 |
U T E P | 85.2 | 84.8 | 85.2 | 85.1 |
Middle Tennessee | 83.2 | 84.4 | 84.5 | 84.0 |
Louisiana Tech | 81.4 | 82.9 | 79.9 | 81.4 |
Rice | 80.5 | 79.9 | 79.4 | 79.9 |
Charlotte | 77.8 | 78.9 | 77.2 | 78.0 |
Florida Int’l. | 65.0 | 67.8 | 63.2 | 65.3 |
CUSA | 85.7 | 86.1 | 85.9 | 85.9 |
FBS Independents | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Average | Average |
BYU | 113.6 | 111.7 | 113.7 | 113.0 |
Notre Dame | 112.8 | 110.9 | 113.0 | 112.2 |
Army | 97.0 | 97.4 | 97.3 | 97.2 |
Liberty | 95.2 | 97.1 | 97.6 | 96.6 |
Connecticut | 78.8 | 80.0 | 76.1 | 78.3 |
New Mexico St. | 75.0 | 77.1 | 74.5 | 75.5 |
Massachusetts | 72.2 | 72.6 | 69.7 | 71.5 |
Independents | 92.1 | 92.4 | 91.7 | 92.1 |
Mid-American Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Ohio) | 90.9 | 93.8 | 93.6 | 92.8 |
Kent St. | 87.4 | 89.7 | 87.7 | 88.3 |
Bowling Green | 86.9 | 85.6 | 86.0 | 86.2 |
Ohio | 84.4 | 86.8 | 86.1 | 85.8 |
Buffalo | 82.0 | 84.6 | 83.7 | 83.4 |
Akron | 76.4 | 77.1 | 75.7 | 76.4 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
N. Illinois | 96.9 | 97.2 | 97.3 | 97.1 |
Toledo | 95.7 | 97.0 | 97.5 | 96.7 |
Western Mich. | 92.6 | 93.8 | 93.9 | 93.4 |
Central Mich. | 91.4 | 93.3 | 94.2 | 93.0 |
Eastern Mich. | 86.1 | 86.6 | 85.8 | 86.2 |
Ball St. | 83.1 | 84.2 | 83.1 | 83.4 |
MAC | 87.8 | 89.1 | 88.7 | 88.6 |
Mountain West Conference | ||||
Mountain Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Air Force | 104.1 | 104.0 | 105.6 | 104.6 |
Boise St. | 104.2 | 103.2 | 104.8 | 104.1 |
Utah St. | 89.7 | 89.9 | 90.4 | 90.0 |
Colorado St. | 85.2 | 86.1 | 85.4 | 85.5 |
Wyoming | 83.7 | 86.2 | 84.9 | 84.9 |
New Mexico | 83.4 | 83.9 | 82.2 | 83.2 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Fresno St. | 103.3 | 102.6 | 104.5 | 103.5 |
San Diego St. | 95.4 | 95.3 | 95.6 | 95.5 |
U N L V | 89.2 | 86.9 | 89.0 | 88.4 |
San Jose St. | 87.6 | 88.0 | 88.8 | 88.1 |
Nevada | 85.7 | 87.8 | 85.8 | 86.4 |
Hawaii | 72.0 | 73.3 | 72.7 | 72.6 |
MWC | 90.3 | 90.6 | 90.8 | 90.6 |
Pac-12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Utah | 116.0 | 114.7 | 117.6 | 116.1 |
Oregon | 111.4 | 110.9 | 110.6 | 111.0 |
U S C | 109.4 | 110.0 | 110.2 | 109.9 |
U C L A | 108.9 | 108.8 | 110.5 | 109.4 |
Oregon St. | 108.5 | 108.0 | 109.4 | 108.6 |
Washington | 105.5 | 106.6 | 106.9 | 106.3 |
Arizona St. | 104.8 | 104.6 | 105.8 | 105.1 |
Washington St. | 101.4 | 102.0 | 102.2 | 101.9 |
Stanford | 102.6 | 100.0 | 100.6 | 101.1 |
California | 97.6 | 97.8 | 98.8 | 98.1 |
Arizona | 96.4 | 96.3 | 96.3 | 96.3 |
Colorado | 94.1 | 92.2 | 92.9 | 93.1 |
Pac-12 | 104.7 | 104.3 | 105.2 | 104.7 |
Southeastern Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia | 133.2 | 131.5 | 134.8 | 133.2 |
Tennessee | 116.9 | 116.8 | 117.2 | 117.0 |
Kentucky | 112.8 | 113.6 | 114.3 | 113.6 |
South Carolina | 109.6 | 108.8 | 109.2 | 109.2 |
Florida | 106.2 | 108.1 | 106.7 | 107.0 |
Missouri | 102.2 | 102.6 | 101.0 | 102.0 |
Vanderbilt | 93.9 | 94.9 | 92.0 | 93.6 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Alabama | 129.1 | 127.9 | 130.4 | 129.1 |
Arkansas | 116.3 | 114.5 | 116.7 | 115.8 |
Mississippi St. | 115.9 | 114.3 | 114.7 | 114.9 |
L S U | 114.1 | 113.2 | 113.1 | 113.5 |
Ole Miss | 114.2 | 112.2 | 112.6 | 113.0 |
Texas A&M | 110.5 | 111.8 | 111.8 | 111.4 |
Auburn | 110.0 | 108.5 | 108.7 | 109.1 |
SEC | 113.2 | 112.8 | 113.1 | 113.0 |
Sunbelt Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Appalachian St. | 98.6 | 100.5 | 101.3 | 100.2 |
Georgia St. | 98.9 | 98.0 | 101.5 | 99.5 |
Marshall | 95.6 | 97.0 | 96.3 | 96.3 |
James Madison | 92.5 | 94.4 | 97.4 | 94.8 |
Coastal Carolina | 92.5 | 94.0 | 94.8 | 93.8 |
Ga. Southern | 90.5 | 90.0 | 91.0 | 90.5 |
Old Dominion | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90.4 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Louisiana | 96.9 | 97.4 | 99.5 | 98.0 |
Troy | 91.0 | 91.2 | 92.3 | 91.5 |
South Alabama | 89.7 | 90.2 | 91.3 | 90.4 |
Southern Miss. | 86.2 | 86.9 | 86.8 | 86.6 |
Arkansas St. | 83.8 | 85.3 | 84.5 | 84.5 |
UL-Monroe | 82.6 | 82.9 | 81.7 | 82.4 |
Texas St. | 80.2 | 81.4 | 81.0 | 80.9 |
Sun Belt | 90.7 | 91.4 | 92.1 | 91.4 |
Conference Ratings
Rank | Conference | Rating |
1 | Southeastern | 113.0 |
2 | Big Ten | 111.6 |
3 | Big 12 | 110.4 |
4 | Atlantic Coast | 106.7 |
5 | Pac-12 | 104.7 |
6 | American Athletic | 98.2 |
7 | Independents | 92.1 |
8 | Sun Belt | 91.4 |
9 | Mountain West | 90.6 |
10 | Mid-American | 88.6 |
11 | Conference USA | 85.9 |
A Tale of Two Conferences
In the mid 1990’s, Conference USA formed when the old Metro Conference dissolved. The league was founded to combine two former basketball conferences into a Midwestern league. At the time, it also had some rather successful football teams. Cincinnati, Louisville, South Florida, Southern Miss., UAB, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, East Carolina, and Army were all early members of the new league. Then, TCU joined and had a top 5 season in the early 2000’s. The league saw early success, and with that, the Big East raided CUSA and took Cincinnati, Louisville, and South Florida. Seeing the writing on the wall, TCU bolted for the Mountain West, where an incredible rivalry with Boise State ensued. CUSA then expanded with new members, making the league quite relevant, as the new teams provided numerous upsets over Power Conference opponents. Central Florida, SMU, Tulsa, Rice, UTEP, and Marshall joined the league and all found some successful seasons. Then, the American Athletic Conference formed, and once again, CUSA lost some significant teams in Memphis, Tulane, Houston, Central Florida, SMU, and Tulsa.
The Sun Belt Conference began as a basketball league back in the mid-1970’s, and in its early years, the league jumped over many others in the Low and Mid-Major area. There was a year where four SBC teams made the NCAA Tournament. The league saw teams come and go, as it struggled financially. They even kicked New Orleans out of the conference because the Privateers did not have a Division 1 level gymnasium.
The Sun Belt decided to sponsor football beginning in the early part of this century. Almost annually, the makeup of the league changed. Teams as far west as Utah State and Idaho joined the conference at times, as they played in the same league with teams from Florida. When Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, and UAB all left the Sun Belt for CUSA in a matter of a couple of seasons, it looked like CUSA would force the SBC back to a basketball conference, while CUSA continued to thrive with some respectable programs.
Then, something happened. About the time that the SEC was becoming a super league and superior to all others, and all their member schools began recruiting nationally instead of regionally, a lot of really good Southeastern recruits started to lose out to the elite 5-star and high 4-star talents from all over America. These low 4-star and 3-star players had once filled SEC rosters, but now they needed to find other schools. Many of them chose to stay near their homes, and that mean Sun Belt Conference schools.
Schools like Troy, Georgia Southern, and what was still known as Louisiana-Lafayette started getting players that used to go to Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. The addition of Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State to the league as they moved to FBS brought some solid former FCS programs that further strengthened this league. All of a sudden, the SBC passed CUSA, and it was CUSA that almost died when the 2021 expansion routlette began. Texas and Oklahoma decided to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, so the Big 12 robbed the AAC of its three best schools, and then the AAC robbed CUSA of its largest market schools. Three schools, Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss quickly petitioned the Sun Belt for admission and were fast-tracked. Then the league found a real diamond in the rough in James Madison. Meanwhile, CUSA had to look for crumbs just to survive. They secured markers for FCS schools Jacksonville State and Sam Houston, and then added Liberty and New Mexico State as future members. It was almost too late, because both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee came very close to leaving for the Mid-American Conference.
In just five or six years, the Sun Belt rose from weakeast FBS league by far to possibly the strongest. Once Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida leave the American, the SBC should be better than the new AAC with CUSA teams. It has already passed the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Conference USA football as a whole might not be as strong as the FCS Missouri Valley Football Conference once the league is reduced to ashes by the departures of its top markets.
September 6, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Football For September 9-10, 2022
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Central Florida | Louisville | -0.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
New Mexico | Boise St. | -17.8 | -16.0 | -19.8 |
Ohio St. | Arkansas St. | 48.8 | 45.1 | 48.9 |
Georgia St. | North Carolina | -5.8 | -7.1 | -2.7 |
Penn St. | Ohio | 34.3 | 31.0 | 31.2 |
Army | UTSA | 2.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 |
Miami (Fla.) | Southern Miss. | 34.5 | 32.4 | 33.8 |
Northwestern | Duke | 17.8 | 16.3 | 18.8 |
Kansas St. | Missouri | 10.4 | 8.8 | 10.3 |
Arkansas | South Carolina | 9.1 | 7.7 | 9.5 |
Texas | Alabama | -15.6 | -15.5 | -18.8 |
Vanderbilt | Wake Forest | -8.4 | -6.4 | -9.5 |
Central Michigan | South Alabama | 9.0 | 10.8 | 11.0 |
Ball St. | Western Michigan | -7.0 | -7.2 | -8.5 |
Notre Dame | Marshall | 28.3 | 25.1 | 27.8 |
Charlotte | Maryland | -29.2 | -27.9 | -29.2 |
Pittsburgh | Tennessee | 1.5 | 0.2 | -0.7 |
Navy | Memphis | -3.2 | -4.2 | -4.4 |
Air Force | Colorado | 7.3 | 9.1 | 9.8 |
Texas A&M | Appalachian St. | 20.0 | 19.6 | 18.8 |
Wisconsin | Washington St. | 22.3 | 21.0 | 20.5 |
Colorado St. | Middle Tennessee | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.2 |
Michigan St. | Akron | 44.3 | 41.8 | 42.4 |
Illinois | Virginia | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
California | UNLV | 11.8 | 14.7 | 13.6 |
Texas Tech | Houston | 5.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
Iowa | Iowa St. | 8.7 | 7.2 | 6.5 |
East Carolina | Old Dominion | 12.6 | 12.1 | 13.5 |
West Virginia | Kansas | 6.8 | 8.9 | 9.1 |
Liberty | UAB | -1.7 | 0.1 | -1.2 |
Florida | Kentucky | -2.2 | -1.1 | -2.8 |
Toledo | Massachusetts | 21.1 | 21.9 | 25.6 |
Connecticut | Syracuse | -26.3 | -23.5 | -27.7 |
Oklahoma | Kent St. | 35.0 | 31.4 | 35.0 |
Louisiana | Eastern Michigan | 10.4 | 10.2 | 13.3 |
Tulsa | Northern Illinois | 1.0 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
Texas St. | Florida Int’l. | 14.8 | 12.6 | 17.2 |
Auburn | San Jose St. | 28.2 | 26.4 | 26.1 |
Nebraska | Georgia Southern | 23.0 | 23.6 | 21.2 |
Stanford | USC | -1.4 | -5.0 | -4.2 |
Oklahoma St. | Arizona St. | 14.9 | 13.4 | 13.2 |
Michigan | Hawaii | 55.5 | 52.6 | 54.8 |
Virginia Tech | Boston College | 1.7 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
UTEP | New Mexico St. | 12.8 | 9.9 | 13.9 |
BYU | Baylor | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.9 |
Fresno St. | Oregon St. | -2.0 | -2.3 | -1.5 |
Arizona | Mississippi St. | -15.9 | -13.9 | -14.4 |
FBS vs. FCS Games
FBS | FCS | PiRate |
Minnesota | Western Illinois | 32.5 |
North Carolina St. | Charleston Southern | 34.1 |
Utah | Southern Utah | 34.8 |
Temple | Lafayette | 9.7 |
Clemson | Furman | 34.2 |
Cincinnati | Kennesaw St. | 29.7 |
Georgia | Samford | 42.3 |
Washington | Portland St. | 23.8 |
Purdue | Indiana St. | 30.1 |
Rutgers | Wagner | 38.4 |
Wyoming | Northern Colorado | 22.4 |
Bowling Green | Eastern Kentucky | 5.8 |
James Madison | Norfolk St. | 32.7 |
UCLA | Alabama St. | 36.8 |
Nevada | Incarnate Word | 10.2 |
Buffalo | Holy Cross | 9.7 |
Miami (O) | Robert Morris | 29.2 |
Coastal Carolina | Gardner-Webb | 29.5 |
Florida Atlantic | Southeast Louisiana | 10.1 |
Ole Miss | Central Arkansas | 29.7 |
Georgia Tech | Western Carolina | 18.8 |
Utah St. | Weber St. | 9.8 |
Tulane | Alcorn St. | 23.7 |
SMU | Lamar | 39.5 |
South Florida | Howard | 26.6 |
Troy | Alabama A&M | 25.3 |
Louisiana Tech | Stephen F. Austin | 10.1 |
LSU | Southern | 32.4 |
North Texas | Texas Southern | 27.1 |
Rice | McNeese St. | 6.6 |
TCU | Tarleton | 31.2 |
Indiana | Idaho | 21.5 |
San Diego St. | Idaho St. | 25.9 |
UL-Monroe | Nicholls St. | 7.5 |
Oregon | Eastern Washington | 21.6 |
Bye Weeks
Florida St. |
Western Kentucky |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Georgia | 133.4 |
2 | Alabama | 130.8 |
3 | Ohio St. | 127.9 |
4 | Michigan | 123.7 |
5 | Clemson | 120.8 |
6 | Oklahoma | 118.8 |
7 | Wisconsin | 117.9 |
8 | Notre Dame | 117.2 |
9 | Michigan St. | 117.1 |
10 | Tennessee | 116.9 |
11 | NC State | 116.4 |
12 | Miami (Fla.) | 116.4 |
13 | Oklahoma St. | 116.2 |
14 | Arkansas | 115.4 |
15 | Penn St. | 115.3 |
16 | Utah | 115.1 |
17 | Baylor | 114.7 |
18 | Purdue | 114.7 |
19 | Mississippi St. | 114.5 |
20 | Texas A&M | 114.4 |
21 | Pittsburgh | 114.2 |
22 | Iowa | 114.0 |
23 | Minnesota | 113.7 |
24 | BYU | 112.9 |
25 | Kentucky | 112.8 |
26 | L S U | 112.2 |
27 | Florida St. | 111.9 |
28 | Ole Miss | 111.5 |
29 | Cincinnati | 111.4 |
30 | Texas | 111.2 |
31 | Auburn | 110.9 |
32 | Kansas St. | 110.7 |
33 | T C U | 109.7 |
34 | Maryland | 109.7 |
35 | South Carolina | 109.6 |
36 | U C L A | 109.3 |
37 | U S C | 108.7 |
38 | Iowa St. | 108.5 |
39 | Oregon St. | 108.5 |
40 | Oregon | 108.5 |
41 | Louisville | 107.9 |
42 | Texas Tech | 107.8 |
43 | Florida | 107.8 |
44 | Nebraska | 107.4 |
45 | North Carolina | 107.3 |
46 | Syracuse | 107.3 |
47 | UCF | 105.9 |
48 | Wake Forest | 105.5 |
49 | Washington | 105.3 |
50 | Arizona St. | 105.3 |
51 | Houston | 105.0 |
52 | SMU | 105.0 |
53 | West Virginia | 104.1 |
54 | Boise St. | 104.0 |
55 | Missouri | 103.9 |
56 | Fresno St. | 103.6 |
57 | Illinois | 103.5 |
58 | Virginia | 103.4 |
59 | Air Force | 102.4 |
60 | Stanford | 102.2 |
61 | Northwestern | 101.2 |
62 | East Carolina | 101.0 |
63 | Indiana | 100.9 |
64 | Boston College | 100.8 |
65 | Rutgers | 100.7 |
66 | Georgia St. | 99.6 |
67 | Washington St. | 99.6 |
68 | U A B | 99.4 |
69 | Kansas | 98.8 |
70 | Tulane | 98.5 |
71 | California | 98.4 |
72 | Virginia Tech | 98.4 |
73 | W. Kentucky | 98.1 |
74 | Appalachian St. | 98.0 |
75 | Army | 97.6 |
76 | N. Illinois | 97.3 |
77 | U T S A | 96.9 |
78 | Arizona | 96.8 |
79 | Louisiana | 96.6 |
80 | Memphis | 96.3 |
81 | Liberty | 96.0 |
82 | Colorado | 95.7 |
83 | Central Mich. | 95.6 |
84 | Coastal Carolina | 95.5 |
85 | San Diego St. | 95.3 |
86 | Vanderbilt | 94.9 |
87 | Tulsa | 94.7 |
88 | Toledo | 94.6 |
89 | Georgia Tech | 94.1 |
90 | USF | 93.7 |
91 | Utah St. | 93.5 |
92 | James Madison | 93.5 |
93 | Miami (Ohio) | 93.5 |
94 | Western Mich. | 93.5 |
95 | Marshall | 93.1 |
96 | Troy | 91.6 |
97 | Old Dominion | 90.8 |
98 | Navy | 89.9 |
99 | Nevada | 88.6 |
100 | Colorado St. | 88.5 |
101 | Florida Atlantic | 88.2 |
102 | U N L V | 88.1 |
103 | Kent St. | 88.0 |
104 | Ga. Southern | 87.9 |
105 | Eastern Mich. | 87.8 |
106 | South Alabama | 87.8 |
107 | San Jose St. | 87.0 |
108 | Bowling Green | 86.9 |
109 | North Texas | 86.8 |
110 | Duke | 86.5 |
111 | Ohio | 86.1 |
112 | Southern Miss. | 85.8 |
113 | U T E P | 85.4 |
114 | Wyoming | 84.9 |
115 | Buffalo | 84.9 |
116 | Ball St. | 83.4 |
117 | Arkansas St. | 83.3 |
118 | New Mexico | 83.2 |
119 | Middle Tennessee | 81.8 |
120 | UL-Monroe | 81.2 |
121 | Louisiana Tech | 80.2 |
122 | Texas St. | 79.5 |
123 | Connecticut | 78.9 |
124 | Charlotte | 78.4 |
125 | Temple | 78.0 |
126 | Rice | 77.9 |
127 | Akron | 77.2 |
128 | New Mexico St. | 75.2 |
129 | Massachusetts | 74.3 |
130 | Hawaii | 72.9 |
131 | Florida Int’l. | 67.2 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Cincinnati | 111.2 | 110.3 | 112.8 | 111.4 |
UCF | 105.4 | 106.1 | 106.2 | 105.9 |
Houston | 104.8 | 104.3 | 106.0 | 105.0 |
SMU | 105.1 | 104.3 | 105.5 | 105.0 |
East Carolina | 100.8 | 100.4 | 101.8 | 101.0 |
Tulane | 99.0 | 98.3 | 98.3 | 98.5 |
Memphis | 96.4 | 96.6 | 96.0 | 96.3 |
Tulsa | 95.0 | 94.3 | 94.9 | 94.7 |
USF | 94.7 | 93.1 | 93.5 | 93.7 |
Navy | 90.7 | 89.9 | 89.1 | 89.9 |
Temple | 78.0 | 80.4 | 75.5 | 78.0 |
AAC | 98.3 | 98.0 | 98.2 | 98.1 |
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||
Atlantic Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Clemson | 120.6 | 120.5 | 121.4 | 120.8 |
NC State | 116.7 | 115.7 | 116.8 | 116.4 |
Florida St. | 112.3 | 111.7 | 111.7 | 111.9 |
Louisville | 108.8 | 107.4 | 107.5 | 107.9 |
Syracuse | 108.2 | 106.8 | 106.8 | 107.3 |
Wake Forest | 106.0 | 105.3 | 105.3 | 105.5 |
Boston College | 100.4 | 102.2 | 99.8 | 100.8 |
Coastal Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Fla.) | 116.9 | 115.5 | 116.7 | 116.4 |
Pittsburgh | 115.3 | 114.0 | 113.4 | 114.2 |
North Carolina | 107.3 | 107.6 | 107.0 | 107.3 |
Virginia | 103.9 | 104.1 | 102.2 | 103.4 |
Virginia Tech | 99.1 | 99.4 | 96.6 | 98.4 |
Georgia Tech | 94.9 | 94.7 | 92.9 | 94.1 |
Duke | 86.6 | 89.2 | 83.7 | 86.5 |
ACC | 106.9 | 106.7 | 105.8 | 106.5 |
Big 12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oklahoma | 119.1 | 117.9 | 119.3 | 118.8 |
Oklahoma St. | 116.9 | 115.2 | 116.4 | 116.2 |
Baylor | 115.4 | 114.1 | 114.6 | 114.7 |
Texas | 112.0 | 111.0 | 110.5 | 111.2 |
Kansas St. | 111.6 | 110.2 | 110.4 | 110.7 |
T C U | 110.7 | 109.2 | 109.4 | 109.7 |
Iowa St. | 108.5 | 108.4 | 108.7 | 108.5 |
Texas Tech | 108.2 | 106.7 | 108.6 | 107.8 |
West Virginia | 104.5 | 104.3 | 103.4 | 104.1 |
Kansas | 100.7 | 98.4 | 97.3 | 98.8 |
Big 12 | 110.7 | 109.5 | 109.9 | 110.0 |
Big Ten Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio St. | 128.4 | 126.3 | 129.0 | 127.9 |
Michigan | 124.2 | 122.7 | 124.2 | 123.7 |
Michigan St. | 118.3 | 116.8 | 116.1 | 117.1 |
Penn St. | 115.7 | 115.3 | 114.9 | 115.3 |
Maryland | 109.9 | 109.8 | 109.4 | 109.7 |
Indiana | 102.1 | 101.5 | 99.1 | 100.9 |
Rutgers | 101.9 | 101.2 | 99.1 | 100.7 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Wisconsin | 118.4 | 117.7 | 117.4 | 117.9 |
Purdue | 115.7 | 114.5 | 113.7 | 114.7 |
Iowa | 115.2 | 113.7 | 113.2 | 114.0 |
Minnesota | 113.8 | 113.2 | 114.2 | 113.7 |
Nebraska | 107.9 | 107.9 | 106.6 | 107.4 |
Illinois | 104.0 | 104.5 | 102.0 | 103.5 |
Northwestern | 101.4 | 102.5 | 99.6 | 101.2 |
Big Ten | 112.6 | 112.0 | 111.3 | 112.0 |
Conference USA | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
U A B | 98.7 | 98.9 | 100.5 | 99.4 |
W. Kentucky | 97.3 | 97.1 | 100.0 | 98.1 |
U T S A | 97.5 | 95.9 | 97.3 | 96.9 |
Florida Atlantic | 87.6 | 89.2 | 87.8 | 88.2 |
North Texas | 86.7 | 85.9 | 87.8 | 86.8 |
U T E P | 85.5 | 84.9 | 85.8 | 85.4 |
Middle Tennessee | 81.0 | 82.1 | 82.2 | 81.8 |
Louisiana Tech | 80.2 | 81.7 | 78.7 | 80.2 |
Charlotte | 78.1 | 79.4 | 77.7 | 78.4 |
Rice | 78.5 | 77.9 | 77.4 | 77.9 |
Florida Int’l. | 66.7 | 69.8 | 65.0 | 67.2 |
CUSA | 85.3 | 85.7 | 85.5 | 85.5 |
FBS Independents | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Notre Dame | 117.8 | 115.9 | 118.0 | 117.2 |
BYU | 113.5 | 111.6 | 113.6 | 112.9 |
Army | 97.2 | 97.8 | 97.7 | 97.6 |
Liberty | 94.6 | 96.5 | 96.8 | 96.0 |
Connecticut | 79.3 | 80.8 | 76.7 | 78.9 |
New Mexico St. | 74.7 | 77.0 | 73.9 | 75.2 |
Massachusetts | 75.0 | 75.5 | 72.4 | 74.3 |
Independents | 93.2 | 93.6 | 92.7 | 93.2 |
Mid-American Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Ohio) | 91.6 | 94.5 | 94.3 | 93.5 |
Kent St. | 87.1 | 89.6 | 87.3 | 88.0 |
Bowling Green | 87.6 | 86.3 | 86.7 | 86.9 |
Ohio | 84.5 | 87.2 | 86.6 | 86.1 |
Buffalo | 83.5 | 86.1 | 85.2 | 84.9 |
Akron | 77.0 | 78.0 | 76.6 | 77.2 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
N. Illinois | 97.0 | 97.4 | 97.5 | 97.3 |
Central Mich. | 93.8 | 95.9 | 97.0 | 95.6 |
Toledo | 93.6 | 94.8 | 95.5 | 94.6 |
Western Mich. | 92.6 | 93.8 | 94.0 | 93.5 |
Eastern Mich. | 87.7 | 88.3 | 87.4 | 87.8 |
Ball St. | 83.1 | 84.2 | 83.0 | 83.4 |
MAC | 88.3 | 89.7 | 89.3 | 89.1 |
Mountain West Conference | ||||
Mountain Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Boise St. | 104.2 | 103.0 | 104.9 | 104.0 |
Air Force | 102.0 | 101.9 | 103.4 | 102.4 |
Utah St. | 93.2 | 93.4 | 93.9 | 93.5 |
Colorado St. | 88.1 | 89.1 | 88.4 | 88.5 |
Wyoming | 83.7 | 86.2 | 84.9 | 84.9 |
New Mexico | 83.4 | 84.1 | 82.1 | 83.2 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Fresno St. | 103.4 | 102.7 | 104.7 | 103.6 |
San Diego St. | 95.2 | 95.1 | 95.4 | 95.3 |
Nevada | 87.9 | 90.0 | 88.0 | 88.6 |
U N L V | 89.0 | 86.5 | 88.6 | 88.1 |
San Jose St. | 86.5 | 86.9 | 87.6 | 87.0 |
Hawaii | 72.3 | 73.6 | 73.0 | 72.9 |
MWC | 90.7 | 91.0 | 91.2 | 91.0 |
Pac-12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Utah | 115.0 | 113.7 | 116.6 | 115.1 |
U C L A | 108.8 | 108.7 | 110.4 | 109.3 |
U S C | 108.2 | 109.0 | 109.0 | 108.7 |
Oregon St. | 108.4 | 107.9 | 109.2 | 108.5 |
Oregon | 108.9 | 108.4 | 108.1 | 108.5 |
Washington | 104.5 | 105.6 | 105.9 | 105.3 |
Arizona St. | 104.9 | 104.9 | 106.2 | 105.3 |
Stanford | 103.8 | 101.0 | 101.8 | 102.2 |
Washington St. | 99.1 | 99.7 | 99.9 | 99.6 |
California | 97.8 | 98.2 | 99.2 | 98.4 |
Arizona | 96.7 | 96.8 | 96.8 | 96.8 |
Colorado | 96.7 | 94.8 | 95.6 | 95.7 |
Pac-12 | 104.4 | 104.1 | 104.9 | 104.4 |
Southeastern Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia | 133.4 | 131.7 | 135.0 | 133.4 |
Tennessee | 116.8 | 116.7 | 117.1 | 116.9 |
Kentucky | 112.1 | 112.9 | 113.4 | 112.8 |
South Carolina | 109.9 | 109.3 | 109.7 | 109.6 |
Florida | 106.9 | 108.8 | 107.6 | 107.8 |
Missouri | 104.1 | 104.4 | 103.1 | 103.9 |
Vanderbilt | 95.1 | 96.3 | 93.3 | 94.9 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Alabama | 130.6 | 129.5 | 132.3 | 130.8 |
Arkansas | 116.0 | 114.0 | 116.2 | 115.4 |
Mississippi St. | 115.6 | 113.8 | 114.2 | 114.5 |
Texas A&M | 113.5 | 114.9 | 114.9 | 114.4 |
L S U | 112.8 | 111.9 | 111.8 | 112.2 |
Ole Miss | 112.7 | 110.7 | 111.1 | 111.5 |
Auburn | 111.8 | 110.3 | 110.6 | 110.9 |
SEC | 113.7 | 113.2 | 113.6 | 113.5 |
Sunbelt Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia St. | 98.9 | 98.0 | 101.8 | 99.6 |
Appalachian St. | 96.5 | 98.3 | 99.1 | 98.0 |
Coastal Carolina | 94.2 | 95.7 | 96.5 | 95.5 |
James Madison | 91.2 | 93.1 | 96.1 | 93.5 |
Marshall | 92.4 | 93.8 | 93.1 | 93.1 |
Old Dominion | 90.7 | 90.8 | 90.8 | 90.8 |
Ga. Southern | 87.9 | 87.3 | 88.4 | 87.9 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Louisiana | 95.6 | 96.0 | 98.2 | 96.6 |
Troy | 91.1 | 91.3 | 92.4 | 91.6 |
South Alabama | 87.3 | 87.6 | 88.5 | 87.8 |
Southern Miss. | 85.4 | 86.1 | 85.9 | 85.8 |
Arkansas St. | 82.6 | 84.2 | 83.1 | 83.3 |
UL-Monroe | 81.4 | 81.7 | 80.5 | 81.2 |
Texas St. | 79.0 | 79.9 | 79.7 | 79.5 |
Sun Belt | 89.6 | 90.3 | 91.0 | 90.3 |
Rating of Conferences
Rank | Conference | Rating |
1 | Southeastern | 113.5 |
2 | Big Ten | 112.0 |
3 | Big 12 | 110.0 |
4 | Atlantic Coast | 106.5 |
5 | Pac-12 | 104.4 |
6 | American Athletic | 98.1 |
7 | Independents | 93.2 |
8 | Mountain West | 91.0 |
9 | Sun Belt | 90.3 |
10 | Mid-American | 89.1 |
11 | Conference USA | 85.5 |
Playoff Projections
#1: Alabama
#2: Georgia
#3: Ohio St.
#4: Clemson
December 23, 2021
A New Gator Bowl
With Texas A&M having to back out of the Gator Bowl due to multiple positive Covid cases, The Gator Bowl has now extended an invitation to Rutgers to face Wake Forest. Below are the new PiRate Ratings spreads for that game. Let’s hope this is the only game affected.
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Wake Forest | Rutgers | 19.1 | 17.4 | 19.1 |
August 26, 2021
PiRate Picks For August 28, 2021
Welcome to all the newcomers to the PiRate Ratings site for the 2021-2022 football season. Saturday, we have the fortune of having a dress rehearsal for the college football season. Nine FBS teams will be in action, as one FBS team plays an FCS opponent.
The PiRate Ratings enjoy issuing picks against the spread or money line on Thursdays each week until January. Because we are most concerned with Money Line Parlays, there are only five options to combine games this week, and many of the books do not issue a line for FBS vs. FCS games. So, in a quest to obtain the best odds, there really are just four games.
This presents multiple issues that basically make it close to impossible to issue a real wager, because the options don’t fit our paradigm. Let’s take a look.
First, before we get started, you must know and understand one thing. We offer these selections purely for the fun of it. It is math and not gambling to us. We NEVER bet on sports. We play with a pretend bankroll that never runs out. We wager the same amount of fake currency on every selection–$100. It could just as easily be $5, $10, $1000, $5000, whatever, but $100 is an easy number and typical of many wagers in real life.
Second, we urge you with everything we can say about it to NOT use this weekly feature as betting advice, unless you have legitimate advice or are a professional, and then this becomes a secondary reference.
Third, we hunt around for the best possible odds on our pretend wagers. You may or may not be able to find the same odds we do, because you would have to search at the exact same time we do. Because, we are not limited to just the legal books available to us in our state of Tennessee, where betting is legal, we might pick a parlay based on a sports book that is only for people in Nevada, or New Jersey, or even off shore.
Okay, now that you know the ground rules, here is our specialty–Money Line Parlays. The money line is different from the spread of a game, but the number is the equivalent of a spread. If a team is favored by 7 points, their money line is going to be roughly -330, and if a team is a 7-point underdog, their money line is going to be roughly +250.
How does a Money Line work? If the line is a negative number, if you wager the amount of the negative number and win, you will receive $100 plus the amount you wagered. So, if you wager on a team at -300, and you bet $300, if the bet wins, you will get back $400 (your investment money plus $100). If you lose, you are out the $300. On the other hand, if the line is a positive number, you can win that amount of money with a $100 wager. So, if the line on a team is +300, you can wager $100, and if the team wins, you receive $400 (your investment money plus $300).
In Money Line wagers, all that matters is that the team you picked wins the game, be it by 1 point or 63 points. Obviously, if Alabama is playing Mercer, the odds are going to be such that to win $100, you will have to put up maybe $100,000. So, if you bet $100 on Alabama at -100000, when Alabama wins, you receive $100.01. Would you risk $100,000 to win one penny?
When you wager on more than one money line to win as one bet, this is called a parlay. Let’s say that you like Mississippi State to beat Arkansas and Oklahoma State to beat Texas Tech. Mississippi State’s money line number is -275. Oklahoma State’s money line number is -250. By combining these two wagers into one bet, with $100 riding on the outcome, instead of attempting to win a little more than $36 on MSU and $40 on OSU, by combining the two games into a parlay, you stand to win almost $91 if both teams win. If you bet them individually, you would only win $76, so by combining the two, you win $15 more. Of course, if one team wins and the other loses, your losses would be less by playing the games separately.
The question you most likely wanted to ask while reading the above paragraph is, “Why risk playing two separate games that both teams you selected must win and still not get even money?” Did you ask it? The answer to that question is, “You are correct; why wager $100 to just win $91 and then have to be right twice to cash it?” You can bet a regular game against the spread and get 11-10 odds, just a fraction better than the odds of the parlay above.
The ultimate answer is that we are only looking for parlays that pay better than even money. We really don’t want to play any parlays at less than +120 odds, where we would win $6 for every $5 wagered.
The next question you might have is, “Isn’t finding two teams to win and pay off at +120 going to require me to bet an underdog to win outright?”
Our answer to you is, “Yes, but we don’t look for many two-team money line parlays. Let’s take a look at another example with three teams.
Let’s say that we believe that Washington will beat Oregon State, and the money line is -260.
We also believe that Army will beat Temple, and the money line is -240.
And, we believe that Wisconsin will beat Purdue, and the money line is -250.
If you wager $100 on these three teams to win, and all three teams win, your payout is just under $175 plus the $100 you wagered for almost $275 ($274.62 to be exact.)
Let’s take a look at 5 wagers, where we win two and lose three at these odds
We bet $500 at $100 for 5 wagers.
On the two winning wagers, we receive $275 * 2 or $550.
Invest $500 and win $550 by being right 40% of the time. In one week, we have made a 10% return on an investment. What investment on the Stock Market makes a 10% gain in one week after you have paid the commissions on the trip?
Ah, but here’s the rub: how often can you wager on 5 money line parlays that average +175 and win 40% of the parlays? Most people fall into this trap and only win about one of five of these parlays. At 20% success, you lose $225 a week for a 45% loss. Now, where can you loses 45% in the stock market in one week? We put our real money in high-cap value stocks with durable competitive advantages, long histories of consistent increases in earnings, and long histories of consistent dividend payouts. The pretend money is just fine for football wagering.
By now, you want to know who we are picking in Week 0 of the college football season. Maybe, you have figured it out already. We don’t have any official picks this week, because there are not enough games to come up with a parlay better than +120.
Here is a practice parlay that is not an official pick, but shown here to show you what we mean.
The three games involved are: Nebraska versus Illinois, UCLA versus Hawaii, and UTEP versus New Mexico St.
Let’s say that we think Illinois will upset the Cornhuskers, UCLA will take care of Hawaii, and UTEP will win the big rivalry game.
Here are the three Money Lines for these three games.
Illinois +215 vs. Nebraska
UCLA -875 vs. Hawaii
UTEP -390 vs. New Mexico St.
This parlay calculates to +341. If we wager $100 on this game, and Illinois, UCLA, and UTEP all win, we receive $441 in our account (The $100 we wagered plus the $341 on the win).
Why isn’t this an official pick? We believe that Illinois might have been an excellent pick against the spread when the Illinois-Nebraska game spread opened at -9 1/2. But, it has come down to -6 1/2 as of this writing. Sharp money was wagers on Illinois +9 1/2, and also on Nebraska -6 1/2. A three-point middling is too good to be true. Playing both sides, the Sharps only need to have the game win both sides one out of every 19 times (5.26%) to make a profit. The spreads of 7, 8, and 9 account for 10.8% of all FBS college football games. That’s double the amount needed to make a profit. The key is the Sharps can find these spreads when they open. Also, playing the opening lines is the most effective way to win for a Sharp.
The UTEP-New Mexico State game is the biggest issue in this parlay. One axiom that older Sharps believe in is not to rely on a losing program to have to win for you to win. The Miners are probably a 3-9 team, which is almost a good year for this program. The Aggies are really weak and should be an underdog in every game, but this is their big rival, maybe bigger than playing New Mexico. The I-10 rivalry frequently is a tossup game.
Two out of three of these games are iffy. The chances that Illinois pulls off the upset of Nebraska are not good enough to have faith in this parlay winning. Scott Frost is in deep cow poo if the Cornhuskers don’t win at least six games and earn a bowl bid, and losing to the weakest Big Ten team will turn the heater on in his heated seat. This will be Bret Bielema’s first game as Illinois head coach, and he brought in an offensive coordinator that runs a system totally different from what the Illini ran under Lovie Smith. Expect growing pains.
We hope this gets you pumped for next week, when there will be more than enough games to play some parlays.