PiRate Ratings Selections for October 4-8, 2018

Another mediocre week by the PiRate Rating selections was offset by another spectacular week by three of our five Land Sharps.

Last week, our official picks went 4-7, to bring the total to date to 22-23-1.  This took our minor profit for the season to a minor loss of 5.7% Return on Investment.  We will include some Money Line parlays that give us better than +150 odds this week in an attempt to get back into the black.  In the past, we have done well when playing 4-game parlays that give us better than +150 odds, but we tend to cash in big on these parlays in November.  Hopefully, October will be nice to us.

As for the Land Sharps, Buckeye Michelle, Friday Dog 13, and Cal Gal Tiffany continue to draw the ire of the kind people in the State of Nevada.  If they keep up this streak, they will not be allowed to patronize the books (Note–every pick on this site is done strictly for entertainment purposes only, so they really have no connection with any books).

Dean615 and Stewed Meat have treaded water so far, as both as exactly .500 in their picks.  In Stewed’s defense, these are this Land Sharp’s “B” picks.  Stewed is a real professional, and Stewed A’s picks last week (college and NFL) went 8-3 including a Parlay win that returned 6 to 1 odds for a big profit.

This week, our Land Sharps have picked between 5 and 9 games.  Because we try not to do the same thing, and we include the NFL in our official picks, we are going with 9 selections–3 vs. spreads, 4, 10-point teasers, and 2 Money Line Parlays.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks 

Margins

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Akron	Miami (O)	3	Akron
Baltimore	Cleveland	3	Baltimore
San Francisco	Arizona	3.5	San Francisco

10-Point Teasers (3-team parlays)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Louisville	Georgia Tech	6.5	Georgia Tech
Boston College	North Carolina St.	5.5	North Carolina St.
LSU	Florida	13	Florida

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Alabama	Arkansas	24	Alabama
Clemson	Wake Forest	7.5	Clemson
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.	2.5	Miami (Fla.)

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
South Florida	Massachusetts	4	South Florida
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	3.5	Georgia Southern
Ole Miss	Louisiana-Monroe	2.5	Ole Miss

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Central Florida	SMU	14	Central Florida
Washington St.	Oregon St.	6.5	Washington St.
Fresno St.	Nevada	2	Fresno St.

 

Money Line Parlays

4 Teams at +168

Winner	Loser
North Carolina St.	Boston College
Troy	Georgia St.
UNLV	New Mexico
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.

 

4 Teams at +174

Winner	Loser
Liberty	New Mexico St.
South Florida	Massachusetts
Buffalo	Central Michigan
Georgia Southern	South Alabama

 

The Land Sharps

Buckeye Michelle

Year to Date: 14-6  70.0%, 37.0% Return on Investment

Connecticut +36 vs. Memphis

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

Minnesota +7.5 vs. Iowa

Air Force +3.5 vs. Navy

UAB +9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Friday Dog 13

Year to Date: 11-5 68.8%, 34.4% Return on Investment

Marshall -6 vs. Middle Tennessee

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Ole Miss -22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

West Virginia -28.5 vs. Kansas

Central Florida -24 vs. SMU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

South Florida -4 vs. Massachusetts

Syracuse -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

Year to Date: 17-9  65.4%, 27.3% Return on Investment

Utah St. +3 vs. BYU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida

Florida St. +13 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Southern -13.5 vs. South Alabama

Auburn -3 vs. Mississippi St.

Georgia -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Stewed Meat

Year to Date: 11-11  50.0%, -5% Return on Investment

Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Louisville

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

Florida +3 vs. LSU

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Colorado -2.5 vs. Arizona St.

Houston & Tulsa UNDER 70.5

Michigan & Maryland UNDER 49

 

Dean615

Year to Date: 7-7  50.0%, -5.0% Return on Investment

Notre Dame -6 vs. Virginia Tech

Wisconsin -17.5 vs. Nebraska

Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Kentucky

Florida & LSU UNDER 44.5

Notre Dame & Virginia Tech OVER 56.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 14: December 8-12, 2016

Week 13 begins the final stretch in the NFL, as the 32 teams are all on the same closing schedule with 12 games played and four to go.  The Flex Scheduling has kicked in, and it becomes time to look at tiebreakers with competing teams.

If you want to take a look at the lengthy tiebreaker rules, you can find them at the NFL’s webpage at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures.

Here is a look at who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

AFC
1	Oakland
2	New England
3	Baltimore
4	Houston
5	Kansas City
6	Denver
NFC
1	Dallas
2	Seattle
3	Detroit
4	Atlanta
5	N.Y. Giants
6	Tampa Bay

Of course, the season does not end today, and our new projections show some changes in the rankings above, especially in the AFC West, where Oakland faces a difficult closing stretch, and Kansas City has a somewhat easier road in the final four games.

Our Projected Playoffs

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Pittsburgh
4	Indianapolis
5	Oakland
6	Denver
NFC Seeding
1	Dallas
2	Seattle
3	Detroit
4	Tampa Bay
5	N.Y. Giants
6	Washington

And, our projected playoff outcomes for this week

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Denver

Oakland over Indianapolis

Detroit over Washington

N. Y. Giants over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round

New England over Oakland

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Dallas over N. Y. Giants

Seattle over Detroit

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over Dallas

Super Bowl 51

Seattle over Kansas City

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
New England	109.1	107.9	110.0	109.0	67	42
Buffalo	102.1	102.3	102.4	102.3	63	39
Miami	97.0	97.4	97.1	97.1	59	38
N. Y. Jets	95.6	94.5	96.0	95.4	57	38
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Pittsburgh	104.8	104.4	105.4	104.9	63	42
Cincinnati	101.5	101.2	101.7	101.5	60	42
Baltimore	100.8	101.8	100.6	101.1	61	40
Cleveland	87.7	88.6	87.4	87.9	55	33
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Indianapolis	98.4	99.9	98.0	98.8	62	37
Tennessee	97.8	98.9	97.5	98.1	61	37
Houston	97.0	97.8	96.3	97.0	61	36
Jacksonville	93.1	94.5	92.7	93.4	58	35
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Denver	105.6	104.5	105.2	105.1	63	42
Kansas City	104.0	103.8	104.5	104.1	64	40
Oakland	102.3	102.8	103.1	102.7	67	36
San Diego	99.3	100.1	99.1	99.5	64	36
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Dallas	104.9	104.2	105.5	104.9	63	42
Washington	101.6	101.3	101.6	101.5	63	39
Philadelphia	100.0	98.8	99.5	99.4	60	39
N.Y. Giants	99.2	98.8	99.3	99.1	62	37
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Minnesota	102.4	101.7	102.2	102.1	59	43
Detroit	101.4	101.1	101.3	101.3	62	39
Green Bay	99.8	99.6	99.7	99.7	64	36
Chicago	93.7	92.7	93.5	93.3	56	37
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Atlanta	104.7	105.4	104.7	104.9	70	35
Tampa Bay	101.5	101.6	101.6	101.6	63	39
Carolina	101.1	101.1	101.1	101.1	60	41
New Orleans	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	67	33
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Seattle	108.3	106.1	108.8	107.7	63	45
Arizona	102.7	101.6	102.7	102.3	63	39
Los Angeles	96.5	97.3	96.1	96.7	55	42
San Francisco	88.5	89.5	87.9	88.6	54	35

This Week’s NBA Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Kansas City	Oakland	4.7	4.0	4.4	57
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	-0.2	0.4	-0.5	46
Carolina	San Diego	4.8	4.0	5.0	45
Cleveland	Cincinnati	-11.8	-10.6	-12.3	41
Detroit	Chicago	10.2	10.9	10.3	40
Indianapolis	Houston	4.4	5.1	4.7	51
Jacksonville	Minnesota	-6.3	-4.2	-6.5	38
Miami	Arizona	-2.7	-1.2	-2.6	47
Philadelphia	Washington	0.4	-0.5	-0.1	47
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	4.4	3.7	4.3	59
Tennessee	Denver	-4.8	-2.6	-4.7	47
San Francisco	New York Jets	-4.1	-2.0	-5.1	38
Green Bay	Seattle	-5.5	-3.5	-6.1	48
Los Angeles	Atlanta	-5.2	-5.1	-5.6	48
New York Giants	Dallas	-2.7	-2.4	-3.2	48
New England	Baltimore	10.3	9.1	12.4	48

 

 

 

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 3: September 22-26,2016

Quarterback Issues Abound

It is almost inevitable that in today’s philosophy of passing the ball more than running, and with a 16- game schedule, that quarterback injuries would increase from the prior generation of NFL Football.

Certain teams lack pass blockers sufficient to deter the superior pass rushers of today’s game, and all sorts of inventive disguising of pass rush have contributed as much if not more to the troubles.

Just two weeks into the 2016 NFL season, two teams are already on quarterback number three, and others have gone to quarterback number two.

In Cleveland, where the Browns were weak enough before losing Robert Griffin, III and Josh McCown, rookie Cody Kessler will get the start this week at Miami.  Adam Gase’s defense is not the issue in Dolphinland.  Expect Kessler to be running for his life early and often.

New England is down to quarterback number three only due to Tom Brady’d suspension.  If the Pats can sneak through two weeks with Jacoby Brissett, then the king can return.  And, if something should happen to Brissett Thursday night against Houston, we may see wide receiver Julian Edelman move to quarterback.  Edelman has beaten Buffalo and Miami while playing quarterback, but that was when he was at Kent State, and the two teams were the Buffalo Bulls and Miami of Ohio Redhawks.

Jay Cutler’s thumb injury could be reason for John Fox to go with Brian Hoyer.  The Bears, already struggling on offense, may have a difficult time matching the Rams for points in the near future.

Then there is the case of a possible Wally Pipp injury.  When Tony Romo went down in Dallas, rookie Dak Prescott entered and drew comparisons to Roger Staubach.  Staubach once came in as a replacement to Craig Morton.  It took a little shuffling, but Morton soon became a bench-warmer before becoming a New York Giant and Denver Bronco.  Staubach led the Cowboys to two Super Bowl Championships and two others, where Dallas came very close to winning.

And, there is Sam Bradford in Minnesota.  This Vikings team may have to totally change the way it plays now with Adrian Peterson out for a lengthy time and maybe the season.  Bradford showed signs of returning to form in the Sunday night win over Green Bay.  The Vikings have been down this road before.  After the Joe Kapp, Dave Osborn, Bill Brown days of plodding offense, and the two-year babysitting of the job by Gary Cuozzo, Fran Tarkenton came back to Bloomington after a five-year sojourn in the Big Apple, and he teamed up with John Gilliam and Jim Lash, while the Purple People Eaters’ defense continued to dominate, leading the Vikings to the Super Bowl three times in four seasons.  Might this be the year the Vikings make it back?  The NFC looks like a wide-open race this year.

 

Two Weeks Are Not A Trend, But

Through two weeks of the season, the average score of an NFL game comes to less than 42 points per game, or less than 21 points per team.  The Los Angeles Rams have three field goals in two games.  The Seattle Seahawks have three field goals and a touchdown in two games, and that one TD came with 30 seconds remaining at home against Miami.  Is it because the Dolphins and Rams have great defenses that Seattle is averaging just 7.5 points per game?  Are the 49ers and Seahawks so strong defensively that LA averages just 4.5 points per game?

San Francisco gave up close to 50 to Carolina last week.  The problem at the L.A. Coliseum is an archaic offense that Jeff Fisher refuses to alter.  He is a Mike Ditka disciple, but he needs to realize that the 1985 Bears are not coming through the Coliseum locker room doors.  He does not have Eddie George in his backfield, even though Todd Gurley is talented.

Sports metric experts have shown that the key to winning in the NFL is being able to pass the ball and being able to stop the pass.  Running stats are padded by winning teams because they usually run the ball to eat the clock when they lead in the last 20 minutes of games, and the losing team abandons the run to try to catch up.  Fisher is basically the Gene Mauch of football.  Mauch took a lot of excellent baseball teams and guided them to respectable 90-win seasons, while the talent on hand was good enough to win 100 games.

Fisher isn’t alone.  Mike Mularkey and Rex Ryan think you can be the 1985 Bears or even 1963 Bears and win the Super Bowl.  It is true that Denver won last year without a dominating passing game, but they did not have a dominating running game.  They dominated by stopping the pass and by getting just enough passing yards to win.  Even a damaged Peyton Manning was good enough to accumulate necessary passing yards.  The Broncos did not run early and often.  They did not run on first down, run on second down and then pass conservatively on third down.  The metrics actually show that passing on first and second down and on third and less than five is the better percentage play, while running becomes the better option only on third and six to 12 yards.  And, for that matter, going for it on fourth down and less than 4 when outside your own 30 yard line is the  better statistical move (as is going for it on 4th and less than 4 when in field goal range).

Certainly, going against the traditional methods will occasionally cost a team a win, but in rebuttal, going against tradition will allow teams to win games they would have lost by using the old playbook tendencies.  And, the ignorant media will run a coach out of town on a rail for going against tradition and losing while never complimenting the coach that bucks the system and wins.  Hey, they are in the business, because they didn’t do so well in math class.

This Week’s Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
N. Y. Jets	103.9	101.6	105.1	103.5	62	42
New England	101.4	99.3	101.8	100.8	60	41
Buffalo	98.6	99.5	98.7	98.9	59	40
Miami	96.1	96.9	96.1	96.3	58	38
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Cincinnati	106.9	106.3	107.8	107.0	64	43
Pittsburgh	105.9	105.5	107.2	106.2	65	41
Baltimore	98.7	100.9	98.4	99.3	61	38
Cleveland	89.9	90.9	89.3	90.0	57	33
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Houston	101.8	103.0	102.1	102.3	64	38
Indianapolis	97.1	98.9	96.0	97.3	61	36
Jacksonville	95.1	96.9	94.4	95.5	58	38
Tennessee	93.9	95.9	93.4	94.4	54	40
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Denver	106.4	103.1	106.5	105.3	62	43
Kansas City	101.8	101.5	102.5	101.9	63	39
San Diego	99.9	100.9	99.7	100.2	64	36
Oakland	97.7	98.4	97.6	97.9	63	35
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Philadelphia	101.0	98.0	100.4	99.8	62	38
N.Y. Giants	99.0	98.3	98.7	98.7	62	37
Washington	97.3	98.1	97.0	97.5	61	37
Dallas	94.6	94.9	94.1	94.5	56	39
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Green Bay	104.4	103.7	104.4	104.2	64	40
Minnesota	102.9	101.9	103.4	102.7	60	43
Detroit	99.2	99.0	98.8	99.0	62	37
Chicago	95.4	93.3	95.1	94.6	56	39
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Carolina	109.4	108.2	110.3	109.3	65	44
New Orleans	99.1	101.5	98.4	99.7	64	36
Atlanta	96.9	99.8	96.8	97.8	62	36
Tampa Bay	95.9	96.8	95.1	95.9	59	37
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Arizona	110.0	107.5	110.9	109.5	69	41
Seattle	106.4	103.3	107.1	105.6	63	43
Los Angeles	97.9	99.4	97.4	98.3	56	42
San Francisco	95.6	96.8	95.7	96.0	56	40

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Score
New England	Houston	2.6	-0.7	2.7	23-21
Buffalo	Arizona	-7.9	-4.5	-8.7	20-27
Carolina	Minnesota	9.5	9.3	9.9	24-14
Cincinnati	Denver	3.5	6.2	4.3	21-16
Green Bay	Detroit	7.7	7.2	8.1	28-20
Jacksonville	Baltimore	-0.6	-1.0	-1.0	20-21
Miami	Cleveland	9.2	9.0	9.8	26-17
New York Giants	Washington	4.2	2.7	4.5	27-23
Tennessee	Oakland	-0.8	0.5	-1.2	20-21
Seattle	San Francisco	13.8	9.5	14.4	23-10
Tampa Bay	Los Angeles	1.5	0.9	1.2	17-16
Indianapolis	San Diego	0.2	1.0	-0.7	28-27
Kansas City	New York Jets	0.9	2.9	0.4	24-23
Philadelphia	Pittsburgh	-2.9	-5.5	-4.8	23-27
Dallas	Chicago	2.2	4.6	2.0	20-17
New Orleans	Atlanta	5.2	4.7	4.6	31-26

 

Selections Against The Spread: November 26, 2015

It’s time to stuff your wallet with money.  And, how best may we recommend that your wallet gets stuffed?  Keep it there and do not use all these picks to lose it all.  There are retailers anxiously waiting to remove all that cash you have saved in the last 52 weeks, so waste it on that cheap drone toy that will be broken by January 10.

 

We have opened the vault and come forward with the most selections of the season for this week’s slate.  Rivalry games, games that are must win contests for bowl eligibility, and teams that are reversing earlier trends lead our selections this week.  A season high six money line parlays anchor 13 straight picks.  Enjoy, but only to look at them.  Don’t be like a certain reader here from the Las Vegas area that informed us three weeks ago that SHE played every money line parlay selection we issued and won a few hundred dollars after losing every week prior during this season by using other information.  Yes, she won some money that week, but if she followed our advice the following week, she gave a chunk back to Vegas.

 

Which brings us to another point:  for some reason, women seem to be following this blog more than men, or at least, they contact us more than the guys.  As some of you know, this site is run by a majority of the fairer sex.  Our founder is the only male contributing here.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all our American followers.  Happy Autumn/Spring to all our followers on the other side of the pond and on the lower side of the Earth.

 

11/27/2015
Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
Buffalo	Massachusetts	6.5	Buffalo
Georgia St.	Troy	1	Georgia St.
Tulane	Tulsa	-6.5	Tulsa
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-7.5	San Jose St.
Kentucky	Louisville	-4.5	Kentucky
Michigan St.	Penn St.	11	Penn St.
Purdue	Indiana	-6.5	Indiana
Illinois (@Chi.)	Northwestern	-3.5	Northwestern
Stanford	Notre Dame	3.5	Stanford
Detroit	Philadelphia	2	Detroit
Dallas	Carolina	1	Carolina
Green Bay	Chicago	9	Chicago
Houston	New Orleans	3	Houston

Money Line Parlay	3 Teams at 7-5		$245 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla)		Pittsburgh
Buffalo	Massachusetts		Buffalo
Akron	Kent St.		Akron
Money Line Parlay	4 Teams at 13-10		$230 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
Toledo	Western Michigan		Toledo
Tulsa	Tulane		Tulsa
West Virginia	Iowa St.		West Virginia
Tennessee	Vanderbilt		Tennessee
Money Line Parlay	4 Teams at 7-3		$325 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
Utah	Colorado		Utah
Florida St.	Florida		Florida St.
Georgia	Georgia Tech		Georgia
Clemson	South Carolina		Clemson
Money Line Parlay	4 Teams at 3-2		$256 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
LSU	Texas A&M		LSU
Alabama	Auburn		Alabama
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.		Oklahoma
San Diego St.	Nevada		San Diego St.
Money Line Parlay	3 Teams at 8-3		$358 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
Houston	New Orleans		Houston
Kansas City	Buffalo		Kansas City
New York Jets	Miami		New York Jets
Money Line Parlay	3 Teams at 13-10		$233 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
Cincinnati	St. Louis		Cincinnati
Arizona	San Francisco		Arizona
New England	Denver		New England

 

 

College Football Preview: November 10-14, 2015

The Week That Was–The Big Skakedown
It started last Tuesday with Northern Illinois knocking off unbeaten Toledo. Memphis, Michigan State, TCU, and LSU followed suit, and now it’s down to Clemson, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Ohio State, and Iowa. Five unbeaten teams remain, but at least two of the quintet must lose, because Ohio State and Iowa would meet in the Big Ten Championship Game if they won out, and Baylor and Oklahoma State must play in the regular season.

Does this mean that #1 Clemson’s path is clear and easy? No, because the Tigers may not be the best team in the ACC at the present time. North Carolina had a bump in the road in the opening week of the season, blowing a lead and losing to South Carolina to open the season. Since then, the Tar Heels have dominated on both sides of the ball. The most recent win, a blowout of rival Duke, moves UNC into the driver’s seat in the Coastal Division.

The schedule does not have as many great games this week, but there are many important ones. Not only are conference races still up for grabs, there are about 20 teams competing for the final six to eight bowl bids. As we believed last week, we continue to believe this week that only 79 teams will reach bowl eligibility. That means one 5-7 team will back into a bowl game. The rule states that if it comes down to 5-7 teams, the tiebreaker is the last football APR (academic progress rate) score. In case you were wondering, Nebraska is number one in line with a 985 score, followed by Vanderbilt (983), Army (981), Rutgers (980), Boston College (980), Georgia Tech (978), Virginia Tech (977), Washington (977), and Kansas St. (976) (teams already bowl eligible were not included in the APR rankings.)

Let’s break the conference races down and show you just how dysfunctional the race to the Playoffs could be.

Power Five Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Clemson sits pretty at 6-0/9-0 with little competition in their site in the regular season. However, North Carolina looks to be headed to an 8-0 finish. We believe that the Tar Heels have a better than 50-50 chance of beating Clemson and securing the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.

Notre Dame is included in the ACC write-up, since the Irish can receive an ACC bowl bid and even jump over an ACC team with one additional win. The Irish must close out the season at Stanford, and as of now, we believe the Cardinal will win a close one. At 10-2, Notre Dame would jump over everybody else in the ACC that isn’t automatically in a NY6 Bowl.

Florida State will look much better if the Seminoles edge Florida in three weeks, while Duke and Pittsburgh will decide who rates ahead of the other when they face off in Durham this week.

Miami, North Carolina State, and Louisville will go somewhere, while Virginia Tech still has a strong chance of getting a sixth win. Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Virginia are out for now.

Big Ten
Ohio State and Iowa look like they are headed to an epic 12-0 vs. 12-0 battle in the Big Ten Championship Game, but those sneaky PiRates believe there is going to be a little fly in the Buckeye ointment. All season long, we have been looking at the upstart rival up north. Michigan may be repeating history from 1969. If you didn’t read our analogy from October, we compared this season to 1969, when defending national champion Ohio State entered the final game undefeated and ranked number one, while Michigan came into the game with two losses, one to a conference champion from another power conference, and one to Michigan State. In 1969, Michigan’s defense shut down Ohio State in the second half and pulled off a big upset at the Big House to win the Big Ten title. The PiRates believe history can and will repeat itself, and Michigan will win the East by upsetting Ohio State again.

Iowa must lost twice for Wisconsin to pass them in the standings, and the Hawkeyes close with Minnesota and Purdue at home and Nebraska on the road. The Hawkeyes might run the table, but we believe Michigan or Ohio State would beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should Michigan State upset Ohio State and take the East Division flag, then Iowa might take the conference title and advance to the playoffs at 13-0. For now, we say Michigan over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. That would leave an Ohio State team at 11-1 probably as the number four seed in the playoffs.

Besides the five teams previously mentioned, Penn State and Northwestern are sure things for bowls. Indiana and Rutgers have the next two best chances to get to 6-6, while Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska have minor chances.

Big 12
TCU can still win the Big 12 Championship, but the Horned Frogs are out of the playoff picture. Oklahoma State and Baylor, remain undefeated, while Oklahoma sits a game back with one loss. Baylor still must play all three of the contenders consecutively, and we believe the Bears are going to lose at least one game and more likely two of the three.

Oklahoma cannot lose another game and win the league, and the Sooners close with the other three contenders, with Baylor and Oklahoma State coming on the road.

Oklahoma State has a winnable road game against Iowa State, and then the Cowboys close with home games against Baylor and Oklahoma. After OSU dismissed TCU, it looks like the boys from Stillwater have the best chance of running the table and entering the playoffs at 12-0.

There is quite a drop after the top four. We see three additional bowl eligible teams in West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. As for Texas, the Longhorns are 4-5 with games at West Virginia, home against Texas Tech, and a finale at Baylor. It looks like 5-7 for the Longhorns, and 5-7 may not allow Coach Charlie Strong to keep his job.

Pac-12
This is an interesting race, and it may be so balanced at this point that no team emerges with just one loss. In the North, Stanford needs one more conference win to clinch the division. The Cardinal can do that this week against Oregon, but if the Ducks win, the race is still alive. The Ducks could then win the division by knocking off USC and Oregon State, if California beats Stanford.

Washington State can still tie for the division crown by winning at UCLA, home against Colorado, and at Washington, if Stanford loses to Oregon and Cal, and Oregon wins out. However, the Cougars have been eliminated from the Pac-12 Championship Game, because Oregon would edge WSU with a better intradivisional record.

California needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and the Bears should get that against Oregon State this week. Washington might finish 5-7 with losses at Arizona State and against Washington State, but the Huskies might be the one lucky 5-7 team to make it to a bowl thanks to their APR score.

The South Division title is still undecided with Utah holding a one game lead over USC and UCLA. The Trojans beat the Utes earlier this year, while Utah and UCLA have yet to play, and of course USC and UCLA have yet to play. Utah is not getting much respect, and the Utes are not totally out of the playoff race themselves. If they beat UCLA and then knock off Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game, a 12-1 Utah team could make a case, especially if USC continues to win.

Arizona State is a wounded team coming in with just one engine, but the Seminoles have the best shot of the rest of getting to 6-6.

Southeastern
Who is going to beat Alabama the rest of the way? The Crimson Tide are supposed to be headed for a trap game at Mississippi State this week, but the Bulldogs do not have enough talent to upset the Tide, unless ‘Bama gives them 14 points in turnovers like they did against Ole Miss.

Ole Miss played themselves out of the conference championship picture with the loss to Arkansas. Facemask penalties can be big. LSU could only win the West if they win out and Alabama loses. It may be even harder for the Tigers to win out than for someone else to beat Alabama.

The rest of this division will also be bowl eligible, an incredible seven out of seven. Because of this, a 12-1 Alabama team might deserve to be the overal number one seed regardless of who else goes undefeated.

Florida has already clinched the East Division, but the Gators might still lose two more games. A team that scores just nine points at home on Vanderbilt could easily lose at South Carolina or at home to Florida State, and they will lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Tennessee was 3-4 two weeks ago, but the Volunteers should win out to finish 8-4 and take second in the division. Georgia has a tough finishing conference game at Auburn, but the Bulldogs finish with two sure things out of conference against Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech. If they lose either one, then Mark Richt becomed unemployed.

Kentucky has now lost four games in a row to fall to 4-5, but the Wildcats’ next two games are winnable. This week’s game at Vanderbilt could be tough, but the Commodores’ offense is as weak as any Power Six Conference team, and a couple of scores could be all the Wildcats need to secure a win. The following week’s game against Charlotte should get the ‘Cats bowl eligible if they knock off the Commodores this week.

South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Missouri are out of the bowl race, and Missouri’s team could be looking at one or more forfeit losses to close the season due to racial tensions on the campus leading to a team walkout. Missouri’s proposed finishing schedule includes a game against BYU in Kansas City this weekend, followed by a home game against Tennessee and a road game against Arkansas.

Group of Five Conferences

American Athletic
Navy’s upset of Memphis ruined the big game for this week, when the Tigers go to Houston. Houston is still in control of the New Year’s Six Bowl that goes to the best Group of Five team, but the Cougars have three tough games to go. Besides needing to beat Memphis, they have to beat Navy and then Temple in the AAC Championship Game.

Don’t count out Navy just yet. The Midshipmen’s lone loss is to Notre Dame, and they did not look like the underdog pulling off a surprise in the win at Memphis. Navy could do the same thing to Houston and take the West Division flag.

Tulsa is not in contention in the West, but the Golden Hurricane needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. The season-ended against Tulane ought to give UT that win.

Temple has a two-game lead in the East Division, but they have a tough closing schedule. The Owls play at the hot South Florida Bulls this week, and USF is still alive in the division race. TU then finishes with home games against Memphis and Connecticut. We believe TU will win out and then win the Conference Championship Game to earn the New Year’s Six Bowl bid.

Besides USF, Cincinnati appears to be the only other team headed to bowl eligibility, as Connecticut and East Carolina don’t appear to have enough winnable games left.

Conference USA
Any chance that a C-USA team could make it to the New Year’s Six Bowl was lost when Marshall lost at Middle Tennessee this past weekend. Western Kentucky already had two losses, and even if the Hilltoppers win out, they will not jump over every AAC team.

The Middle Tennessee win virtually locked up a bowl bid for the Blue Raiders, while Old Dominion and Florida International still hold slim chances of making it to six wins.

In the West, Louisiana Tech looks invincible at this point, but Southern Miss. still has a shot. We believe the winner of that game will eventually emerge as the overall conference champion and have first dibs on which of seven contracted bowls they wish to accept, or in other words accepts the Bahamas Bowl.

Rice and UTEP still have even money odds’ chances of finishing 6-6.

Independents
BYU has already clinched a bowl, and they will be invited to either the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl.

Army already has seven losses, but if the Black Knights beat Tulane, Rutgers, and Navy, they could still earn a bowl bid with a superior APR score. We think West Point will lose an eighth, ninth, and tenth game, so it is a moot point.

Mid-American
Bowling Green is up two games with three to play in the East, and the Falcons would have to lose all three for Buffalo to surpass them. The Bulls need just one more win to become bowl eligible, and that should happen with a game against UMass on November 27, if not at Akron the week before.

Akron needs two more wins, and the Zips still have Miami of Ohio and Kent State on their schedule. Call it 6-6 for Terry Bowden’s crew, as Akron makes it to a bowl for the second time ever.

Ohio needs one more win to earn a bowl bid. The Bobcats were once a leading contender to win the division, but the season soured at the halfway point. Weak opponents in consecutive weeks against Kent State and Ball State should get Ohio to 7-5.

The West Division is a mess thanks to last week’s results. Western Michigan is now alone in first place at 5-0, but the Broncos have a killer finishing schedule against Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Toledo, the latter two on the road.

Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan are in a three-way tie at 4-1. TU has a schedule the equal of WMU with games at CMU, at BGU, and at home against WMU. NIU has it a little easier with games at Buffalo, and home against WMU and Ohio. CMU closes with Toledo at home but their final two games are easy wins against Kent State and Eastern Michigan. The Chippewas were a consensus 5th place choice in the preseason, and first year coach John Bonamego will draw a lot of attention from bigger schools after spending most of his career coaching in the NFL.

Mountain West
It was supposed to be a slam dunk 13-0 season for Boise State, but the Broncos stumbled early against BYU and lost at Utah State. Still, BSU can win the Mountain Division with a closing schedule of New Mexico, Air Force, and San Jose State. The Broncos will not be the favored team in the conference championship game if they win the division title.

Air Force still controls its own destiny in the Mountain Division, and hiding in the bushes, New Mexico also controls its own destiny. Bob Davie’s Lobos may not win out and take the division flag, but UNM needs just one more win to earn their first bowl bid since 2007. Utah State needs help to win the division and appears headed to a 6-6 finish.

Colorado State must win two more games to get to six wins, and the Rams should do it by defeating UNLV and Fresno State. That would mean five of the six Mountain teams would earn a bowl bid.

The West Division is not so fortunate. Only San Diego State is assured of earning a bowl bid at this point, and the Aztecs appear to be the class of the entire league this year.

Nevada should finish 6-6, but there is no guarantee that the Wolfpack will win another game with San Jose State, Utah State, and San Diego State left to play. As for San Jose State, the Spartans are 4-5 after a close loss to BYU, and they close with Nevada, Hawaii, and Boise State. The winner of the Nevada-San Jose State game should finish 6-6, but that is not for sure.

Sun Belt
In a weeknight surprise, Arkansas State upset Appalachian State to take command in the SBC. The Red Wolves have three easy marks in their way to the SBC title in Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, and Texas State. The fans in Jonesboro might be getting nervous, not because ASU could be upset, but because someone may come calling for Coach Blake Anderson.

Appalachian State will still go bowling this year, as will Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Lafayette.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	129.6	127.4	129.5	128.8
2	Ohio St.	128.5	123.1	129.3	127.0
3	Baylor	127.8	124.0	128.1	126.6
4	Oklahoma	127.0	123.7	127.6	126.1
5	Stanford	124.2	122.3	124.6	123.7
6	Clemson	122.9	124.1	123.6	123.5
7	TCU	126.0	117.7	126.4	123.4
8	LSU	123.6	120.8	123.7	122.7
9	Notre Dame	123.1	120.2	123.1	122.1
10	USC	122.0	118.1	122.0	120.7
11	North Carolina	120.3	120.8	120.6	120.6
12	Utah	121.9	116.8	121.4	120.0
13	UCLA	122.2	116.2	120.8	119.7
14	Ole Miss	122.2	116.9	120.1	119.7
15	Tennessee	120.6	116.5	120.4	119.2
16	Oklahoma St.	119.2	116.6	119.8	118.5
17	Florida	119.4	116.0	119.4	118.3
18	Michigan	119.0	116.2	119.1	118.1
19	Arkansas	118.8	113.6	118.0	116.8
20	Mississippi St.	116.7	113.4	117.2	115.8
21	Auburn	116.0	113.6	115.4	115.0
22	Oregon	117.1	110.8	116.7	114.9
23	Georgia	117.2	110.7	116.1	114.7
24	Michigan St.	115.5	112.3	114.8	114.2
25	Florida St.	114.1	114.8	113.4	114.1
26	Texas A&M	115.6	112.1	113.4	113.7
27	California	115.1	109.4	114.2	112.9
28	Houston	109.9	115.9	112.1	112.6
29	Wisconsin	112.7	112.3	111.8	112.3
30	Iowa	110.7	112.9	111.3	111.6
31	Georgia Tech	112.7	110.3	111.3	111.4
32	Arizona St.	113.6	108.1	112.1	111.3
33	Boise St.	112.4	109.0	112.1	111.2
34	North Carolina St.	110.4	112.2	109.4	110.7
35	West Virginia	112.9	106.9	111.9	110.6
36	Bowling Green	107.8	112.8	110.9	110.5
37	Virginia Tech	110.2	109.9	110.0	110.0
38	Temple	108.8	110.9	109.5	109.7
39	Washington	110.1	107.1	110.4	109.2
40	Louisville	107.5	110.2	107.3	108.3
41	Nebraska	108.4	106.6	107.6	107.5
42	Pittsburgh	106.8	107.3	107.4	107.2
43	Memphis	106.5	107.4	107.1	107.0
44	Missouri	108.4	104.8	107.3	106.8
45	South Carolina	108.3	104.8	106.8	106.6
46	Cincinnati	105.3	107.2	107.1	106.5
47	Penn St.	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5
48	Washington St.	107.4	103.8	107.7	106.3
49	Duke	106.1	106.3	106.2	106.2
50	BYU	106.2	105.6	106.8	106.2
51	Navy	104.6	108.1	105.4	106.0
52	Western Kentucky	105.6	105.7	106.6	106.0
53	San Diego St.	104.0	108.4	105.5	106.0
54	Arizona	107.3	101.9	106.5	105.2
55	Miami	104.2	104.7	105.1	104.7
56	Illinois	105.4	103.9	104.5	104.6
57	Minnesota	105.2	103.5	104.5	104.4
58	Texas Tech	107.1	98.9	106.7	104.2
59	Northwestern	104.1	104.3	103.9	104.1
60	Toledo	103.2	104.2	104.7	104.0
61	Texas	105.0	101.7	105.0	103.9
62	Louisiana Tech	103.4	103.6	104.5	103.8
63	Western Michigan	102.3	103.2	103.7	103.1
64	Kansas St.	106.1	96.3	105.3	102.6
65	Colorado	104.7	99.6	102.4	102.2
66	Virginia	101.6	99.7	101.3	100.9
67	Kentucky	102.5	98.0	100.7	100.4
68	Vanderbilt	101.5	97.7	101.7	100.3
69	Utah St.	99.5	99.8	99.5	99.6
70	Boston College	99.2	102.0	97.6	99.6
71	Northern Illinois	97.0	100.9	97.9	98.6
72	Iowa St.	99.6	95.9	99.4	98.3
73	Appalachian St.	96.4	99.3	98.2	98.0
74	Air Force	96.6	100.8	96.0	97.8
75	Georgia Southern	95.9	98.7	96.8	97.1
76	Indiana	96.5	96.5	95.8	96.3
77	Wake Forest	95.2	98.5	94.5	96.1
78	Marshall	95.4	96.3	95.6	95.8
79	South Florida	93.3	99.1	94.4	95.6
80	Purdue	96.4	95.3	94.9	95.5
81	Maryland	95.0	94.1	94.9	94.7
82	East Carolina	92.6	96.2	93.1	94.0
83	Syracuse	93.3	95.7	92.2	93.7
84	Rutgers	94.7	91.4	92.7	92.9
85	Arkansas St.	92.1	93.2	93.3	92.9
86	Middle Tennessee	93.3	92.3	92.9	92.8
87	Central Michigan	90.7	95.0	92.8	92.8
88	Southern Mississippi	91.7	93.8	92.5	92.7
89	San Jose St.	91.7	94.4	91.9	92.7
90	Colorado St.	92.7	92.0	91.9	92.2
91	Tulsa	90.2	94.5	91.2	92.0
92	Connecticut	88.8	93.7	90.0	90.8
93	Florida International	89.8	92.2	89.9	90.6
94	Nevada	89.1	93.0	88.9	90.3
95	New Mexico	89.0	90.0	88.2	89.1
96	Oregon St.	90.4	87.1	88.2	88.6
97	Ohio	85.7	89.8	87.0	87.5
98	Buffalo	83.2	89.3	85.0	85.8
99	Tulane	85.2	87.4	84.4	85.7
100	Akron	83.2	88.9	84.7	85.6
101	UNLV	84.0	86.5	85.4	85.3
102	Massachusetts	84.1	86.9	84.8	85.3
103	SMU	83.9	87.8	83.5	85.1
104	Troy	83.7	85.1	85.2	84.7
105	UL-Lafayette	83.5	86.2	83.8	84.5
106	Rice	82.8	85.9	82.7	83.8
107	Florida Atlantic	82.3	85.4	83.1	83.6
108	Hawaii	82.0	83.7	80.9	82.2
109	Army	77.9	86.7	79.4	81.3
110	Ball St.	80.4	82.6	81.0	81.3
111	Fresno St.	80.1	83.6	78.1	80.6
112	Kent St.	79.5	82.2	80.1	80.6
113	Wyoming	80.1	81.6	78.9	80.2
114	Central Florida	79.1	82.1	79.4	80.2
115	UT-San Antonio	78.8	81.3	79.2	79.8
116	UTEP	77.1	79.8	77.0	78.0
117	Georgia St.	77.3	77.5	78.0	77.6
118	Old Dominion	76.3	80.7	75.7	77.6
119	Texas St.	76.6	79.8	76.2	77.5
120	South Alabama	74.8	80.9	75.9	77.2
121	Miami (O)	74.1	79.0	74.7	75.9
122	Idaho	73.0	78.3	74.1	75.1
123	North Texas	72.6	76.6	72.7	74.0
124	Kansas	75.7	69.3	73.4	72.8
125	UL-Monroe	73.2	72.1	73.2	72.8
126	Eastern Michigan	70.7	76.9	70.0	72.5
127	New Mexico St.	71.6	73.3	71.7	72.2
128	Charlotte	68.4	70.6	68.5	69.2

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Baylor
5	Notre Dame
6	LSU
7	Oklahoma
8	Stanford
9	Iowa
10	Utah
11	TCU
12	Florida
13	Oklahoma St.
14	Michigan
15	Michigan St.
16	Houston
17	USC
18	Mississippi St.
19	North Carolina
20	Memphis
21	Ole Miss
22	Navy
23	UCLA
24	Florida St.
25	Northwestern
26	Temple
27	BYU
28	Wisconsin
29	Tennessee
30	Boise St.
31	Toledo
32	Texas A&M
33	Bowling Green
34	Oregon
35	Penn St.
36	Western Kentucky
37	Arkansas
38	Washington St.
39	Georgia
40	Pittsburgh
41	California
42	Miami (Fla)
43	West Virginia
44	Auburn
45	Washington
46	Cincinnati
47	Duke
48	Louisville
49	North Carolina St.
50	Appalachian St.
51	Western Michigan
52	Louisiana Tech
53	San Diego St.
54	Northern Illinois
55	Illinois
56	Texas Tech
57	Georgia Southern
58	Arizona St.
59	Nebraska
60	Georgia Tech
61	Central Michigan
62	Air Force
63	Kansas St.
64	Minnesota
65	Virginia Tech
66	Marshall
67	South Florida
68	Utah St.
69	Arkansas St.
70	Texas
71	Indiana
72	Arizona
73	South Carolina
74	Connecticut
75	Southern Miss.
76	Tulsa
77	Virginia
78	Iowa St.
79	Kentucky
80	Missouri
81	Buffalo
82	Vanderbilt
83	Maryland
84	Middle Tennessee
85	San Jose St.
86	East Carolina
87	Ohio
88	Rutgers
89	Syracuse
90	Boston College
91	Colorado
92	Louisiana-Lafayette
93	Colorado St.
94	Akron
95	New Mexico
96	Nevada
97	South Alabama
98	Purdue
99	Wake Forest
100	Oregon St.
101	Troy
102	Florida Int’l.
103	Old Dominion
104	UNLV
105	Rice
106	Kent St.
107	Ball St.
108	Tulane
109	SMU
110	Army
111	Texas St.
112	UTEP
113	Idaho
114	Massachusetts
115	Florida Atlantic
116	Georgia St.
117	Fresno St.
118	Hawaii
119	Miami (O)
120	Kansas
121	UTSA
122	New Mexico St.
123	Wyoming
124	Louisiana-Monroe
125	North Texas
126	Charlotte
127	Eastern Michigan
128	Central Florida

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	115.7	111.9	115.0	114.2
2	Pac-12	113.0	108.4	112.3	111.2
3	Big 12	110.6	105.1	110.4	108.7
4	ACC	107.5	108.3	107.1	107.6
5	Big Ten	107.0	105.7	106.5	106.4
6	Indep.	102.4	104.2	103.1	103.2
7	AAC	95.7	99.2	96.4	97.1
8	MWC	91.8	93.6	91.4	92.3
9	MAC	87.8	91.7	89.0	89.5
10	CUSA	86.0	88.0	86.2	86.7
11	SBC	81.6	84.0	82.4	82.7

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	5-0	8-1	108.8	110.9	109.5	109.7
Cincinnati	2-3	5-4	105.3	107.2	107.1	106.5
South Florida	3-2	5-4	93.3	99.1	94.4	95.6
East Carolina	2-4	4-6	92.6	96.2	93.1	94.0
Connecticut	3-3	5-5	88.8	93.7	90.0	90.8
Central Florida	0-6	0-10	79.1	82.1	79.4	80.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	5-0	9-0	109.9	115.9	112.1	112.6
Memphis	4-1	8-1	106.5	107.4	107.1	107.0
Navy	5-0	7-1	104.6	108.1	105.4	106.0
Tulsa	2-3	5-4	90.2	94.5	91.2	92.0
Tulane	1-5	2-7	85.2	87.4	84.4	85.7
SMU	0-5	1-8	83.9	87.8	83.5	85.1
AAC Averages			95.7	99.2	96.4	97.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	6-0	9-0	122.9	124.1	123.6	123.5
Florida St.	5-2	7-2	114.1	114.8	113.4	114.1
North Carolina St.	2-3	6-3	110.4	112.2	109.4	110.7
Louisville	4-2	5-4	107.5	110.2	107.3	108.3
Boston College	0-7	3-7	99.2	102.0	97.6	99.6
Wake Forest	1-5	3-6	95.2	98.5	94.5	96.1
Syracuse	1-4	3-6	93.3	95.7	92.2	93.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	5-0	8-1	120.3	120.8	120.6	120.6
Georgia Tech	1-5	3-6	112.7	110.3	111.3	111.4
Virginia Tech	2-3	4-5	110.2	109.9	110.0	110.0
Pittsburgh	4-1	6-3	106.8	107.3	107.4	107.2
Duke	3-2	6-3	106.1	106.3	106.2	106.2
Miami	3-2	6-3	104.2	104.7	105.1	104.7
Virginia	2-3	3-6	101.6	99.7	101.3	100.9
ACC Averages			107.5	108.3	107.1	107.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Baylor	5-0	8-0	127.8	124.0	128.1	126.6
Oklahoma	5-1	8-1	127.0	123.7	127.6	126.1
TCU	5-1	8-1	126.0	117.7	126.4	123.4
Oklahoma St.	6-0	9-0	119.2	116.6	119.8	118.5
West Virginia	1-4	4-4	112.9	106.9	111.9	110.6
Texas Tech	2-5	5-5	107.1	98.9	106.7	104.2
Texas	3-3	4-5	105.0	101.7	105.0	103.9
Kansas St.	0-5	3-5	106.1	96.3	105.3	102.6
Iowa St.	2-4	3-6	99.6	95.9	99.4	98.3
Kansas	0-6	0-9	75.7	69.3	73.4	72.8
Big 12 Averages			110.6	105.1	110.4	108.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	5-0	9-0	128.5	123.1	129.3	127.0
Michigan	4-1	7-2	119.0	116.2	119.1	118.1
Michigan St.	4-1	8-1	115.5	112.3	114.8	114.2
Penn St.	4-2	7-3	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5
Indiana	0-5	4-5	96.5	96.5	95.8	96.3
Maryland	0-5	2-7	95.0	94.1	94.9	94.7
Rutgers	1-5	3-6	94.7	91.4	92.7	92.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	5-1	8-2	112.7	112.3	111.8	112.3
Iowa	5-0	9-0	110.7	112.9	111.3	111.6
Nebraska	2-4	4-6	108.4	106.6	107.6	107.5
Illinois	2-3	5-4	105.4	103.9	104.5	104.6
Minnesota	1-4	4-5	105.2	103.5	104.5	104.4
Northwestern	3-2	7-2	104.1	104.3	103.9	104.1
Purdue	1-4	2-7	96.4	95.3	94.9	95.5
Big Ten Averages			107.0	105.7	106.5	106.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	6-0	8-2	105.6	105.7	106.6	106.0
Marshall	5-1	8-2	95.4	96.3	95.6	95.8
Middle Tennessee	3-2	4-5	93.3	92.3	92.9	92.8
Florida International	3-3	5-5	89.8	92.2	89.9	90.6
Florida Atlantic	2-4	2-7	82.3	85.4	83.1	83.6
Old Dominion	2-3	4-5	76.3	80.7	75.7	77.6
Charlotte	0-6	2-7	68.4	70.6	68.5	69.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	5-1	7-3	103.4	103.6	104.5	103.8
Southern Mississippi	4-1	6-3	91.7	93.8	92.5	92.7
Rice	2-3	4-5	82.8	85.9	82.7	83.8
UT-San Antonio	1-4	1-8	78.8	81.3	79.2	79.8
UTEP	2-3	4-5	77.1	79.8	77.0	78.0
North Texas	1-5	1-8	72.6	76.6	72.7	74.0
CUSA Averages			86.0	88.0	86.2	86.7
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		8-1	123.1	120.2	123.1	122.1
BYU		7-2	106.2	105.6	106.8	106.2
Army		2-7	77.9	86.7	79.4	81.3
Independents Averages			102.4	104.2	103.1	103.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	5-0	7-2	107.8	112.8	110.9	110.5
Ohio	2-3	5-4	85.7	89.8	87.0	87.5
Buffalo	3-2	5-4	83.2	89.3	85.0	85.8
Akron	2-3	4-5	83.2	88.9	84.7	85.6
Massachusetts	0-5	1-8	84.1	86.9	84.8	85.3
Kent St.	2-3	3-6	79.5	82.2	80.1	80.6
Miami (O)	1-5	2-8	74.1	79.0	74.7	75.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	4-1	7-1	103.2	104.2	104.7	104.0
Western Michigan	5-0	6-3	102.3	103.2	103.7	103.1
Northern Illinois	4-1	6-3	97.0	100.9	97.9	98.6
Central Michigan	4-1	5-4	90.7	95.0	92.8	92.8
Ball St.	2-4	3-7	80.4	82.6	81.0	81.3
Eastern Michigan	0-6	1-9	70.7	76.9	70.0	72.5
MAC Averages			87.8	91.7	89.0	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	4-1	7-2	112.4	109.0	112.1	111.2
Utah St.	4-2	5-4	99.5	99.8	99.5	99.6
Air Force	4-1	6-3	96.6	100.8	96.0	97.8
Colorado St.	2-3	4-5	92.7	92.0	91.9	92.2
New Mexico	3-2	5-4	89.0	90.0	88.2	89.1
Wyoming	1-5	1-9	80.1	81.6	78.9	80.2
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	5-0	6-3	104.0	108.4	105.5	106.0
San Jose St.	3-2	4-5	91.7	94.4	91.9	92.7
Nevada	3-2	5-4	89.1	93.0	88.9	90.3
UNLV	2-3	3-6	84.0	86.5	85.4	85.3
Hawaii	0-6	2-8	82.0	83.7	80.9	82.2
Fresno St.	1-5	2-7	80.1	83.6	78.1	80.6
MWC Averages			91.8	93.6	91.4	92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	7-0	8-1	124.2	122.3	124.6	123.7
Oregon	4-2	6-3	117.1	110.8	116.7	114.9
California	2-4	5-4	115.1	109.4	114.2	112.9
Washington	2-4	4-5	110.1	107.1	110.4	109.2
Washington St.	4-2	6-3	107.4	103.8	107.7	106.3
Oregon St.	0-6	2-7	90.4	87.1	88.2	88.6
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	4-2	6-3	122.0	118.1	122.0	120.7
Utah	5-1	8-1	121.9	116.8	121.4	120.0
UCLA	4-2	7-2	122.2	116.2	120.8	119.7
Arizona St.	2-4	4-5	113.6	108.1	112.1	111.3
Arizona	2-5	5-5	107.3	101.9	106.5	105.2
Colorado	1-5	4-6	104.7	99.6	102.4	102.2
Pac-12 Averages			113.0	108.4	112.3	111.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	3-3	5-4	120.6	116.5	120.4	119.2
Florida	6-1	8-1	119.4	116.0	119.4	118.3
Georgia	4-3	6-3	117.2	110.7	116.1	114.7
Missouri	1-5	4-5	108.4	104.8	107.3	106.8
South Carolina	1-6	3-6	108.3	104.8	106.8	106.6
Kentucky	2-5	4-5	102.5	98.0	100.7	100.4
Vanderbilt	1-4	3-6	101.5	97.7	101.7	100.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	5-1	8-1	129.6	127.4	129.5	128.8
LSU	4-1	7-1	123.6	120.8	123.7	122.7
Ole Miss	4-2	7-3	122.2	116.9	120.1	119.7
Arkansas	3-2	5-4	118.8	113.6	118.0	116.8
Mississippi St.	3-2	7-2	116.7	113.4	117.2	115.8
Auburn	2-4	5-4	116.0	113.6	115.4	115.0
Texas A&M	3-3	6-3	115.6	112.1	113.4	113.7
SEC Averages			115.7	111.9	115.0	114.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	4-1	7-2	96.4	99.3	98.2	98.0
Georgia Southern	4-1	6-2	95.9	98.7	96.8	97.1
Arkansas St.	5-0	6-3	92.1	93.2	93.3	92.9
Troy	2-3	3-6	83.7	85.1	85.2	84.7
UL-Lafayette	3-1	4-4	83.5	86.2	83.8	84.5
Georgia St.	1-3	2-6	77.3	77.5	78.0	77.6
Texas St.	1-3	2-6	76.6	79.8	76.2	77.5
South Alabama	2-2	4-4	74.8	80.9	75.9	77.2
Idaho	2-4	3-6	73.0	78.3	74.1	75.1
UL-Monroe	0-5	1-8	73.2	72.1	73.2	72.8
New Mexico St.	2-3	2-7	71.6	73.3	71.7	72.2
Sun Belt Averages			81.6	84.0	82.4	82.7

NCAA Playoff Projections
1	Clemson
2	Alabama
3	Ohio St.
4	Notre Dame

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team
1	Houston
2	Navy
3	Temple
4	Memphis
5	Boise St.

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team
10	Boston College
9	Iowa St.
8	Indiana
7	Wake Forest
6	Purdue
5	Maryland
4	Syracuse
3	Rutgers
2	Oregon St.
1	Kansas

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	96.9
2	Harvard	94.2
3	North Dakota St.	91.9
4	McNeese St.	91.7
5	Dartmouth	91.5
6	Dayton	91.3
7	Charleston Southern	90.2
8	South Dakota St.	90.0
9	Illinois St.	89.6
10	Coastal Carolina	89.6

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 10
Ohio	Kent St.	8.7	10.1	9.4
Central Michigan	Toledo	-10.0	-6.7	9.4
Wednesday, November 11
Buffalo	Northern Illinois	-10.8	-8.6	-9.9
Western Michigan	Bowling Green	-2.5	-6.6	-4.2
Thursday, November 12
South Alabama	Louisiana-Lafayette	-6.2	-2.8	-5.4
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	5.5	3.4	4.3
Friday, November 13
Colorado	USC	-14.3	-15.5	-16.6
Saturday, November 14
Duke	Pittsburgh	1.8	1.5	1.3
Auburn	Georgia	1.8	5.9	2.3
South Carolina	Florida	-8.1	-8.2	-9.6
Tennessee	North Texas	51.0	42.9	50.7
Army	Tulane	-4.3	2.3	-2.0
West Virginia	Texas	10.9	8.2	9.9
Illinois	Ohio St.	-20.1	-16.2	-21.8
TCU	Kansas	53.3	51.4	56.0
Michigan St.	Maryland	23.5	21.2	22.9
Northwestern	Purdue	10.2	11.5	11.5
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tennessee	-8.5	-4.4	-7.3
Miami (O)	Akron	-7.1	-7.9	-8.0
Old Dominion	UTEP	2.2	3.9	1.7
Florida St.	North Carolina St.	6.7	5.6	7.0
Louisville	Virginia	8.9	13.5	9.0
Charlotte	UTSA	-7.9	-8.2	-8.2
Air Force	Utah St.	0.1	4.0	-0.5
Eastern Michigan	Massachusetts	-11.4	-8.0	-12.8
Louisana-Monroe	Arkansas St.	-16.4	-18.6	-17.6
Arizona St.	Washington	6.5	4.0	4.7
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	19.1	19.1	18.5
Notre Dame	Wake Forest	30.9	24.7	31.6
Syracuse	Clemson	-26.6	-25.4	-28.4
Mississippi St.	Alabama	-9.9	-11	-9.3
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	-16.6	-17.7	-17.4
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	8.6	7.1	8.7
Rutgers	Nebraska	-11.2	-12.7	-12.4
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	4.0	5.6	4.4
Indiana	Michigan	-19.5	-16.7	-20.3
Troy	Georgia Southern	-9.7	-11.1	-9.1
Rice	Southern Miss.	-6.4	-5.4	-7.3
Navy	SMU	23.7	23.3	24.9
Nevada	San Jose St.	-0.1	1.1	-0.5
Texas St.	Georgia St.	1.8	4.8	0.7
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	1.0	1.7	3.0
Idaho	Appalachian St.	-20.4	-18.0	-21.1
South Florida	Temple	-12.5	-8.8	-12.1
Colorado St.	UNLV	11.7	8.5	9.5
Houston	Memphis	6.4	11.5	8.0
LSU	Arkansas	7.8	10.2	8.7
Stanford	Oregon	10.1	14.5	10.9
Missouri *	BYU	[3.2]	[0.2]	[1.5]
Cincinnati	Tulsa	18.1	15.7	18.9
Baylor	Oklahoma	3.8	3.3	3.5
Iowa	Minnesota	8.5	12.4	9.8
Arizona	Utah	-11.6	-11.9	-11.9
Boise St.	New Mexico	26.4	22.0	26.9
San Diego St.	Wyoming	26.9	29.8	29.6
California	Oregon St.	27.7	25.3	29.0
UCLA	Washington St.	17.8	15.4	16.1
Hawaii	Fresno St.	5.9	4.1	6.8
FBS vs. FCS	Week 11	PiRate
Texas A&M	Western Carolina	29
* Ongoing Strike of Missouri Football Team May Force Forfeiture Of This Game In Kansas City

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	vs.	Appalachian St.
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Rice
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Washington St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	vs.	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Central Michigan	vs.	Utah St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Washington * ^	vs.	Northern Illinois
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Boise St.	vs.	California *
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Bowling Green	vs.	Arkansas St.
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Toledo
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Tulsa	vs.	BYU
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	Houston	vs.	Marshall
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	Oregon
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Akron *	vs.	UTEP
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	vs.	Rutgers
Independence	SEC	ACC	Arkansas	vs.	Miami (Fla)
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Indiana	vs.	UCLA
Military	ACC	AAC	Navy	vs.	Virginia Tech
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Ohio *	vs.	Nevada *
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Buffalo *	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Colorado St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	vs.	Kentucky
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	vs.	Auburn
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Georgia
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	North Carolina	vs.	Michigan
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Stanford
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Alabama	vs.	Ohio St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	vs.	USC
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	vs.	Florida
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	LSU
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	vs.	Notre Dame
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Clemson	vs.	Temple
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Louisville	vs.	Mississippi St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Ole Miss
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	Utah
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Stanford	vs.	Alabama
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Washington qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

Selections Against The Spread–October 29 – November 2, 2015

Well, the three-week hot streak came crashing to an end last week, as our Money Line picks lost a little bit from our account at the Fantasy Island Vegas Book.

This week, we go back to taking some sides in addition to four Money Line parlays with odds better than even money.  Additionally, we are issuing a parlay that includes an underdog to win outright, greatly increasing the odds to produce a windfall IF it wins.  IF is a big word, because not only must the underdog win outright, but another favorite must also win in order to cash this parlay for a big payout.

As always, remember that we do this strictly for fun and do not actually waste hard-earned money on ridiculously entertaining picks.

 

Selections Against The Spread For October 29 – November 2, 2015

10/29/2015
Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
Rice	Louisiana Tech	-13	Rice
North Carolina St.	Clemson	-10	North Carolina St.
Washington St.	Stanford	-11	Stanford
Texas Tech	Oklahoma St.	-3	Oklahoma St.
Houston	Vanderbilt	12.5	Vanderbilt
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l	-2.5	Florida Int’l
SMU	Tulsa	-3.5	Tulsa
Minnesota	Michigan	-14	Minnesota
UCLA	Colorado	21.5	Colorado
Kansas City	Detroit	5.5	Detroit
New Orleans	New York Giants	3	New Orleans

 

Money Line Parlay Selections For October 29 – November 2, 2015

Money Line Parlay	4 Teams at 6-5		$220 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
TCU	West Virginia		TCU
Louisville	Wake Forest		Louisville
Iowa	Maryland		Iowa
Texas	Iowa St.		Texas
Money Line Parlay	2 Teams at 5-2		$360 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
Central Michigan	Akron		AKRON
Idaho	New Mexico St.		Idaho
Money Line Parlay	4 Teams at 7-3		$330 payout on $100
Favorite	Underdog		Must Win
New England	Miami		New England
Atlanta	Tampa Bay		Atlanta
St. Louis	San Francisco		St. Louis
Baltimore	San Diego		Baltimore

 

NFL Preview For Week 5: October 8-12, 2015

Another Seattle Controversy

For the second time in just a few years, a Monday Night Football game has ended in controversy in Seattle.  In the waning minutes of last night’s game between the Seahawks and the Detroit Lions, a Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson pass near the goalline was stopped a foot short of the end zone when Seattle defensive back Kam Chancellor stripped the ball away from Johnson, as he apparently tried to stretch his arm out to get the touchdown.

The ball rolled into the end zone, and Seattle linebacker K.J. Wright was the only person capable of recovering the ball as it slowly rolled toward the back line.  The only problem was that Wright encouraged the ball to leave the playing field by batting it with a gentle but definite push.

As the back judge stared from just a few feet away, the ball left the playing field and resulted in a touchback, giving Seattle the ball at their 20-yard line and effectively ending the game.

There is one catch.  A ball cannot be batted in the end zone.  It is a 10-yard penalty for illegal batting of the ball.  The correct call would have been to award Detroit the ball half the distance to the goalline from where the fumble occurred, or basically about 6-8 inches away from the goalline, plus an automatic first down.

The NFL later admitted that the referees had erred.  Speculation amongst ESPN personnel was that the officials refused to make a call that would obviously change the outcome of the game, because the ball was headed out of bounds and would have never been recovered by Detroit.  However, the rules are the rules, and officials have no business interpreting which rules should be enforced and which should be ignored.

This is not the first time a game in Seattle has been heavily scrutinized.  The “Fail Mary” play on Monday Night Football three years ago where Golden Tate pushed M.D. Jennings away and then stole the ball from Jennings when Jennings intercepted the ball at the end of the game.  Ironically, last night’s play occurred in the very spot where the 2012 play occurred.

As if that is not enough, the officiating of NFL games in Seattle has been called into question in a more blatant fashion by other bloggers.  Check out this supposed evidence.

The accusations of games being rigged are not a recent phenomenon.  Former Baltimore Colt star defensive end Bubba Smith went to his grave claiming that Super Bowl III was fixed in order to give the New York market a Super Bowl Champion and to give the American Football League credibility so that the upcoming merger would look better. Smith supplied no evidence, but many sports fans believed him then and have believed him ever since.

We here at the PiRate Ratings do not believe all the accusations, but we also are not naive to understand that hundreds of millions of dollars are wagered on NFL games, and there are people in this world that potentially have the power to “get” to personnel and encourage a game to be called a certain way.  Many people believe that organized crime once murdered a President to get rid of the Attorney General trying to end their reign of terror, so fixing a football game would be a walk in the park.

We pondered other games from the past that were nationally televised and ended in controversy, games that most likely had more money wagered on the outcome than the average game.  These are just games that one of the five of us saw live on TV and can remember.  In reverse chronological order, and excluding the Seattle games already mentioned, here is what we came up with.

 

A caveat to begin: we did not see any controversy in the 2014-15 Dallas-Green Bay playoff game.  Dez Bryant did not maintain control of the ball, and thus the correct call was made without controversy.

1999-2000 NFC Championship Game: The St. Louis Rams were the most exciting team in the NFL with their “Greatest Show on Turf” offense directed by offensive coordinator Mike Martz.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the most boring team in the NFL, leading the league in defense and low-scoring games.  Entering the fourth quarter in the game that would decide who would play another boring team in the AFC Champion Tennessee Titans, the Bucs led the Rams 6-5.  Kurt Warner drove the Rams for the go-ahead touchdown and led 11-6, but the Bucs responded with a nice drive of their own.  Quarterback  Shaun King threw a bullet pass to receiver Bert Emanuel who clearly caught the ball for a nice gain to set up a third and short inside Rams’ territory.

The officials were slow to stop the play and check the replay.  In the Fox Sports Booth, announcer Pat Summerall and analyst John Madden were perplexed at why there was a stoppage of play since Emanuel’s catch was obvious to everybody.  After booth review, the referee ruled the play an incomplete pass, and two plays later, the Rams were the NFC Champions.  The ruling was that the point of the football touched the ground when Emanuel fell after making the catch.  At the time, that rule was correct, but replay did not confirm that the ball actually touched the ground.  It should have been an inconclusive replay resulting in the play standing.  As a result, the most exciting team advanced to the Super Bowl over the most boring team in the NFL.

1979-80 AFC Championship Game: Trailing 17-10 in the fourth quarter at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsbugrh, the Houston Oilers are driving for the game-tying touchdown.  Near the goalline, quarterback Dan Pastorini throws the fade pass to receiver Mike Renfro in the back of the endzone.  Renfro makes the catch and slides to get both feet inbounds, which replay clearly showed he did.  Official Don Orr fails to make a call on the play.  According to Renfro, Orr looks like a ghost, as he “swallows his whistle.”  It takes what seems like several minutes, but more accurately is about 45 seconds for the officials to huddle and rule the pass incomplete, greatly affecting the outcome of the game, and maybe more importantly changing the betting side winner.  The Steelers were 9 1/2-point favorites and covered when they scored a late touchdown to win by 14.  There was no instant replay rule in football then.

1976 AFC Playoffs First Round:  The New England Patriots had come of age in 1976.  With a stable full of great running backs, including quarterback Steve Grogan, New England made its first NFL Playoff and first overall playoff since they were the Boston Patriots in 1963.  Included in this 11-3 season, they blew Oakland off the field in the regular season 48-17, the only loss the Raiders suffered.

In the first round of the AFC playoffs, the game was close and could have gone either way, but in the closing stages of the fourth quarter, it appeared that New England would pen loss number two on Oakland.  The Pats led 21-17 late in the final stanza, when Oakland had one last possession to try to score the winning touchdown.  All appeared lost for the Raiders, as they faced a 3rd and 18 from inside their own 30-yard line.  Quarterback Ken Stabler dropped back and looked long as the Raiders typically tried in this situation.  Patriot defensive tackle Ray Hamilton broke through the blocking containment and headed straight for Stabler.  As Stabler released the ball, Hamilton got a finger or two on the ball slightly altering the spiral and course of the flight.  At the same time, he dropped Stabler to the turf, for what should have been 4th and 18 with 70+ yards to go for the win and about 75 seconds remaining in the game.

The official failed to see the deflected pass, and he threw his yellow handkerchief signalling roughing the passer.  There should have been no roughing on two counts.  The ball was deflected, and Hamilton hit Stabler as he was finishing his release.  The 15-yard penalty and automatic first down.  The Patriots’ defense lost its composure over the blatant bad call, and Stabler led the Raiders to paydirt with 10 seconds left in the game.

1975 NFC Playoffs First Round: The Minnesota Vikings led the Dallas Cowboys 14-10 with 32 seconds remaining in the opening playoff game at cold, blustery Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington.  Roger Staubach has guided the Cowboys to midfield, but time is running out, and a field goal will do Dallas no good.  Staubach dropped back to pass and pumped to his left to draw Vikings’ free safety Paul Krausse away from the point of attack.  He then heaved the ball far down the right sideline toward receiver Drew Pearson.  Defensive back Nate Wright is on Pearson like a glove, and the pass is underthrown.  Pearson sees that he will have to stop and even back up a half-step to catch the ball, but Wright is in his way.  Pearson pushes Wright just enough to come back and catch the ball as Wright falls to the ground.  Pearson then side-steps Wright into the end zone from the four yard line, and Dallas wins the game 17-14, giving birth to the “Hail Mary.”

There was actually a rules change as the result of this game, and it had nothing to do with pass interference.  Two minutes after the touchdown and non-call of offensive interference, a half-full whiskey bottle was thrown with more accuracy than Staubach’s pass.  The intended target, the field judge that failed to make the call, was hit directly on the back of his noggin by the bottle, causing brief unconsciousness and a contusion that required bandaging.  After that day, no glass bottles were allowed in NFL venues.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	5
Date of Games:	October 8-12
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Indianapolis	-2.3	-1.7	-1.9
Kansas City	Chicago	10.0	11.7	10.2
Cincinnati	Seattle	1.5	3.2	2.2
Atlanta	Washington	9.6	10.7	11.1
Tampa Bay	Jacksonville	3.4	-0.3	3.8
Philadelphia	New Orleans	8.2	11.0	7.8
Baltimore	Cleveland	13.2	13.6	13.8
Green Bay	St. Louis	15.2	12.9	16.2
Tennessee	Buffalo	-2.9	-3.8	-2.3
Detroit	Arizona	-2.1	-2.4	-2.8
Dallas	New England	-1.1	-4.1	-1.1
Oakland	Denver	-11.2	-6.8	-11.9
NY Giants	San Francisco	8.4	10.9	9.2
San Diego	Pittsburgh	-1.4	-1.4	-2.1

Special Note About NFL Colors: We get questions at our sister site http://www.piratings.webs.com asking us how we get the colors for the NFL teams.  We have a Pantone Matching System color-creator, and the official Pantone colors for the NFL teams.  We choose omit any black or white colors from the teams, and occasionally, we choose an alternate color rather than the principle color.  The same Navy pantone is used by six different teams, so we choose to use the Columbia blue for the Titans and Sky blue for the Chargers rather than repeat the Navy color. Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	105.5	103.9	105.7	105.0	2-2-0	95	101
Philadelphia	102.7	101.9	102.5	102.4	1-3-0	78	86
N.Y. Giants	101.0	101.2	101.5	101.2	2-2-0	102	82
Washington	94.7	94.4	94.4	94.5	2-2-0	78	79
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	108.9	108.1	109.3	108.8	4-0-0	113	71
Minnesota	101.4	99.2	102.8	101.1	2-2-0	80	73
Detroit	101.1	100.0	100.8	100.6	0-4-0	66	96
Chicago	92.6	92.1	92.3	92.3	1-3-0	68	125
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	101.3	102.1	102.5	102.0	4-0-0	137	93
Carolina	101.4	101.5	101.7	101.5	4-0-0	108	71
New Orleans	97.5	93.9	97.7	96.4	1-3-0	86	104
Tampa Bay	91.1	91.6	90.5	91.1	1-3-0	72	117
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	106.8	106.1	106.7	106.5	2-2-0	87	71
Arizona	105.7	104.9	106.1	105.6	3-1-0	148	73
St. Louis	96.7	98.2	96.1	97.0	2-2-0	74	89
San Francisco	96.6	94.3	96.3	95.7	1-3-0	48	110
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	109.6	110.0	109.8	109.8	3-0-0	119	70
Buffalo	102.0	102.6	102.1	102.2	2-2-0	110	92
N. Y. Jets	101.4	101.9	102.1	101.8	3-1-0	95	55
Miami	94.8	96.2	93.5	94.8	1-3-0	65	101
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	104.8	105.8	105.4	105.3	4-0-0	121	77
Pittsburgh	104.0	104.0	104.1	104.0	2-2-0	96	75
Baltimore	103.9	103.2	104.4	103.8	1-3-0	93	104
Cleveland	93.7	92.6	93.6	93.3	1-3-0	85	102
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	100.8	101.2	100.2	100.7	2-2-0	72	93
Tennessee	96.1	95.8	96.8	96.2	1-2-0	89	77
Houston	95.5	96.5	95.3	95.8	1-3-0	77	108
Jacksonville	89.7	93.9	88.7	90.8	1-3-0	62	107
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Denver	106.8	106.1	106.7	106.5	4-0-0	97	69
Kansas City	99.6	100.8	99.5	100.0	2-2-0	100	125
San Diego	99.6	99.6	99.0	99.4	2-2-0	96	110
Oakland	92.6	96.3	91.8	93.6	2-2-0	97	108

Selections Against The Spread–September 24-28, 2015

Today, we expand our fun nonsense with three different types of selections to lose you money quicker than if you throw it away playing one weekend fantasy games.  Before you throw away good money thinking you can be that one person in 20 million that makes a million dollars, and before you decide to lose it in the conventional way by playing the stock market, consider losing it this much more entertaining way.

Pardon us whilst we remove tongues from cheeks.

Seriously, just remember that these selections are worth less than what you pay for them.  Use these only as something to either endorse your prior beliefs of convince you to pocket that extra change in your wallet and buy some nice flowers for your utmost.

Today, we have decided to go with five sides picks, seven 10-point teasers, and one stupendous Money Line parlay.

Did we mention this: DO NOT use these picks as your guide to lose all your money this weekend.  How much will the PiRates wager this weekend?  A big fat 0.  We have chosen to go the flowers route; the payoff is so wonderful.

 

Sides

Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
Syracuse	LSU	24.5	Syracuse
Carolina	New Orleans	3	Carolina
N. Y. Giants	Washington	3	N. Y. Giants
Baltimore	Cincinnati	2.5	Baltimore
Cleveland	Oakland	3	Cleveland

10-Point Teasers

	Home	Visitor	Teaser	Pick
1	Washington	California	-14	Washington
	Baylor	Rice	44.5	Rice
	Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-21.5	Charlotte
2	Syracuse	LSU	-34.5	Syracuse
	Michigan	BYU	15.5	BYU
	Kentucky	Missouri	12.5	Missouri
3	Virginia	Boise St.	7.5	Boise St.
	Notre Dame	Masachusetts	19	Notre Dame
	Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	15	Ole Miss
4	Dallas	Atlanta	10	Atlanta
	Carolina	New Orleans	-7	Carolina
	St. Louis	Pittsburgh	10	Pittsburgh
5	Miami	Buffalo	12.5	Buffalo
	N. Y. Giants	Washington	-7	N. Y. Giants
	Houston	Tampa Bay	-3	Houston
6	Seattle	Chicago	25.5	Chicago
	New England	Jacksonville	4.5	New England
	Baltimore	Cincinnati	12.5	Cincinnati
7	Cleveland	Oakland	-7	Cleveland
	Green Bay	Kansas City	-2.5	Green Bay
	Minnesota	San Diego	11	San Diego

Money Line Parlay

For those two or three of you that have read this far and do not know what a Money Line parlay is, we will tell you, but we will also wonder why you have read this far in the first place.

The Money Line allows you to select the winner of a particular game without having to worry about a point spread.  However, since it is obvious that the favorite has a better chance to win the game than the underdog, you must pay a premium when you select the favorite to win the game.  For example, this week New England is an overwhelming favorite to beat Jacksonville.  The Money Line allows you to wager on New England to win the game by just one point and return money to you.  However, the Money Line odds for this game at most Las Vegas books is: New England -1400 and Jacksonville +800.  What this means is for every $1,400 you wager on New England at -1400, you can win $100 more than you wager.  So, if you put down $1,400 on New England on a Money Line wager, you receive $1,500 if New England wins (Your original $1,400 plus $100 profit, which is a return on your investment of 7.1%).  If you believe Jacksonville will upset the Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday and wager just $100 on the Jaguars to win the game, you stand to receive $900 (Your original $100 plus $800 profit) if Jacksonville wins.

A Money Line Parlay allows you to combine multiple games into one wager.  Let’s say that you have 3 favorites you believe will all win and feel confident enough to lay down cash for one combined wager.  For an example let’s use a possible 4-team Money Line Parlay for Sunday.

Houston is currently -280 vs. Tampa Bay

New England is currently -1400 vs. Jacksonville

Seattle is currently -1600 vs. Chicago

Green Bay is currently -320 vs. Kansas City

If you believe Houston, New England, Seattle, and Green Bay are certain winners and combine these four games into one wager, our parlay calculator says that for every $100 you wager, you will get back $203 (Your original $100 plus $103 profit) if the four teams all win.  If just one of the four loses or ties, then you lose your $100.

Just for fun, what if you think New England and Seattle will win with 100% belief in your mind?  What if you combine -1400 and -1600 into one wager?  The payout on $100 wagered would be just $114.  That is obviously a 14% return on your investment.  Now remember that in your mind this is 100% winnable.  Where else can you return 14% on an investment in one weekend?  Ah, this is why there are so many broke individuals in Las Vegas, and why the books and casinos can build new and improved versions every few years.  Who do you think wins the majority of these wagers?

Now that you have been warned, here is our super-duper 8-team Money Line Parlay for this week.  This returns at a rate slightly better than 3-2 if it wins.  For every $100 you wager on this parlay, if all eight teams win, your return is $251 (Your original $100 plus $151 profit).

And, here it is:

Money Line Parlay	8-team Parlay	3-2 odds	$151 payout for $100
Favorite	Underdog	Odds	Must Win
Nebraska	Southern Miss.	-1400	Nebraska
Houston	Texas St.	-800	Houston
Penn St.	San Diego St.	-800	Penn St.
Western Kentucky	Miami (O)	-1150	West Virginia
Georgia Southern	Idaho	-750	Georgia Southern
South Carolina	Central Florida	-650	South Carolina
Oregon	Utah	-500	Oregon
Northwestern	Ball St.	-1200	Northwestern

Did we mention that we strongly advise you not to wager real money on any of our recommendations?  Consider how much you paid for this information.  The sharpest of the sharp bettors make consistent profit during football season.  Do they look at our recommendations?  Okay, Billy, if you are reading this, please let us know.

2015 Football Season Returns Soon

Welcome back football fans.  The PiRates are back at it working late nights compiling the 2015-16 college and NFL ratings.

Look for the new season to kick off in Mid-August, when we begin previewing each of the FBS conferences, one at a time, beginning with the lowest rated conference and ending with the highest rated conference.  Gee, can you guess which conference might be the tops?  Hint:  A current Big Ten coach once said that the three toughest leagues in American Football were the NFC, the AFC, and this conference.

It will come as no surprise which individual team is number one in the preseason, and it also will not be all that surprising when they debut with the highest preseason PiRate Rating since Nebraska began the 1995 season.  Hint:  Their third best quarterback might be a top Heisman Trophy contender if he played at any of the other 24 teams in the Top 25.

The NFL Ratings will appear after the final college conference preview, and this will lead up to the first week’s college schedule.

The Ratings and spreads each week will be available from our website at http://www.piratings.webs.com.  This blog site will add extras, and if we can ever get the tabular format to align properly here, we will post the ratings and spreads here as well.

Enjoy the remainder of your summer, and remember to come back to this blog in Mid-August for our first conference preview.

PiRate Ratings: NFL–November 28-December 2, 2013

The Division & Wildcard Races

NFC East: It is now a two-team race between Dallas and Philadelphia with the Giants and Redskins falling back out of the race.  Both teams have three home games remaining, but the important Week 17 game between the two rivals takes place at Cowboys Stadium.  This week, we favor Dallas to edge the Eagles out, and we do not project the Eagles to get in as a wildcard.

 

NFC North: Mediocrity has set in with the loss of two starting quarterbacks.  Aaron Rodgers is worth about 10-13 points per game, and his loss has turned the Packers into a poor team.  Matt Flynn is an improvement over Scott Tolzien, but the Packers will not get their star back until Week 14, by which time Green Bay could be 5-6-1 and 1 ½ games behind Detroit and possibly Chicago.  We believe that the Bears and Lions might both finish 9-7, so Rodgers would have to lead the Packers to four consecutive wins when he returns.  The Rodgers of December 8 will not be the Rodgers of September 8, and we believe the division race will be decided in Week 15 and Week 16.  In Week 15, Chicago plays at Cleveland and Detroit hosts Baltimore.  The following week, Chicago plays at Philadelphia, and Detroit hosts the Giants.  We favor Detroit by a tiny edge this week.

 

NFC South: Short of a collapse, Carolina will secure the number 5 seed with the first wildcard, while New Orleans will earn the number two seed and host a divisional round playoff game.  Or, it could be the other way around, since the two hot teams have yet to face off this season.  We believe the Saints will hold onto the two-game edge.  This week could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, as New Orleans goes to Seattle on Monday Night Football.  New Orleans does have an incredibly tough December with three road games against teams with a combined 23-10 record as well as Carolina at home.

 

NFC West:  Seattle should secure home field advantage through the Conference Championship Game.  The Seahawks host the Saints this week and follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco.  At worst, if they lose both games, they should still finish 13-3.  The 49ers and Cardinals are the top two competitors for the sixth and final playoff spot.  The two square off in Phoenix in Week 17, but we believe that San Francisco will have clinched the wildcard bid before that game.  The 49ers have a schedule advantage for the next four weeks with three home games, while Arizona has three road games in the next four weeks.

 

AFC East: It is now safe to write New England’s name in ink as the official AFC East Champion.  With a three game lead against mediocre opposition, there is no chance that the Patriots will miss out on the playoffs.  A possible 12-4 record should earn the Pats a Divisional Round home game and first round bye.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are all within one game of the final wildcard spot, but we do not like any of the trio’s chances.  Miami and the Jets have serious problems and appear to be heading to valleys.  Buffalo could pass both and finish in 2^nd place with a 7-9 record.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati is vulnerable here.  The Bengals are not a complete team.  They are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but the real reason is that some opponents can exploit their weaknesses, while others cannot.  What is left on their schedule?  Four teams capable of exploiting their weaknesses.  A 2-3 finish is quite possible, which would send the Bengals to a 9-7 record.  It should still be enough to win the division, but the Ravens and Steelers are both capable of finishing 9-7 as well.  Thursday night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh game at M&T Bank Stadium will leave one of the rivals at 6-6 with an excellent chance to go 3-1 down the stretch.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis is much like Cincinnati, except the Colts are even more vulnerable to teams that have superb passing quarterbacks.  Still, the rest of this league is weaker than the three weaker AFC East teams.  At worst, the Colts will falter to finish 10-6, and that will win this league by two to four games.  Tennessee is the technical number six team as of this week, but the Titans’ next two games are on the road against Indianapolis and Denver, which will send them to a 5-8 record with three to play.  The last wildcard spot will go to a 9-7 team.

 

AFC West: The race has gotten a little interesting.  Peyton Manning once again proved his inability to play in cold weather.  The Broncos covered for him in the first half with the defense scoring or setting up the scores, but Manning had one of his poorest performances in a Broncos’ uniform.  Kansas City’s once stellar defense has been picked apart in successive weeks by division rivals.  Still, the Chiefs need only win one more game to wrap up a wildcard bid.  San Diego is the 5-6 team with the overall best chance to finish 9-7.  Phillip Rivers has seen his career resurrected with Coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt present.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Dallas Cowboys	100.6	101.9	100.4
Philadelphia Eagles	98.9	100.1	99.2
New York Giants	96.3	96.1	95.5
Washington Redskins	95.0	95.0	94.7
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Chicago Bears	100.5	100.2	99.9
Detroit Lions	99.9	100.3	99.8
Green Bay Packers	98.2	97.0	97.1
Minnesota Vikings	94.6	94.0	93.8
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	107.8	109.2	108.7
Carolina Panthers	106.1	106.4	106.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	97.3	97.1	97.4
Atlanta Falcons	94.8	94.0	93.8
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	110.1	110.8	110.6
Seattle Seahawks	107.6	107.6	107.8
Arizona Cardinals	100.9	102.2	101.5
St. Louis Rams	100.8	101.6	101.3
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	106.6	104.9	106.9
Miami Dolphins	98.6	98.3	98.9
Buffalo Bills	97.5	96.6	97.5
New York Jets	93.0	91.3	92.7
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	106.3	106.2	106.4
Baltimore Ravens	102.8	102.4	102.9
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.6	99.6	100.0
Cleveland Browns	95.8	95.5	95.4
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	100.6	100.7	100.7
Tennessee Titans	98.0	98.1	98.2
Houston Texans	95.2	94.5	95.1
Jacksonville Jaguars	88.8	88.5	88.5
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.6	110.9	111.0
Kansas City Chiefs	102.3	103.7	102.7
San Diego Chargers	101.3	101.9	101.2
Oakland Raiders	93.6	93.4	93.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Green Bay	4.2	5.8	5.2
Dallas	Oakland	10.0	11.5	9.7
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	5.7	5.3	5.4
Carolina	Tampa Bay	11.3	11.8	11.8
Cleveland	Jacksonville	10.0	10.0	9.9
Indianapolis	Tennessee	6.3	6.6	6.3
Kansas City	Denver	-5.3	-4.2	-5.3
Minnesota	Chicago	-3.4	-3.7	-3.6
N Y Jets	Miami	-2.6	-4.0	-3.2
Philadelphia	Arizona	1.5	1.4	1.2
Buffalo (@ Toronto)	Atlanta	4.2	4.1	5.2
San Francisco	St. Louis	12.3	12.2	12.3
Houston	New England	-8.4	-7.4	-8.8
San Diego	Cincinnati	-2.0	-1.3	-2.2
Washington	N Y Giants	1.2	1.4	1.7
Seattle	New Orleans	2.8	1.4	2.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Dallas

4. Detroit

5. Carolina

6. San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

San Diego over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

San Francisco over Dallas

Carolina over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over San Diego

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

Seattle over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Seattle over Kansas City