The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 6, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 14: December 8-12, 2016

Week 13 begins the final stretch in the NFL, as the 32 teams are all on the same closing schedule with 12 games played and four to go.  The Flex Scheduling has kicked in, and it becomes time to look at tiebreakers with competing teams.

If you want to take a look at the lengthy tiebreaker rules, you can find them at the NFL’s webpage at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures.

Here is a look at who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

AFC
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Tampa Bay

Of course, the season does not end today, and our new projections show some changes in the rankings above, especially in the AFC West, where Oakland faces a difficult closing stretch, and Kansas City has a somewhat easier road in the final four games.

Our Projected Playoffs

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Pittsburgh
4 Indianapolis
5 Oakland
6 Denver
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Tampa Bay
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

And, our projected playoff outcomes for this week

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Denver
Oakland over Indianapolis
Detroit over Washington
N. Y. Giants over Tampa Bay
 
Divisional Round
New England over Oakland
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Dallas over N. Y. Giants
Seattle over Detroit
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Seattle over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
Seattle over Kansas City

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.1 107.9 110.0 109.0 67 42
Buffalo 102.1 102.3 102.4 102.3 63 39
Miami 97.0 97.4 97.1 97.1 59 38
N. Y. Jets 95.6 94.5 96.0 95.4 57 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 104.8 104.4 105.4 104.9 63 42
Cincinnati 101.5 101.2 101.7 101.5 60 42
Baltimore 100.8 101.8 100.6 101.1 61 40
Cleveland 87.7 88.6 87.4 87.9 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 98.4 99.9 98.0 98.8 62 37
Tennessee 97.8 98.9 97.5 98.1 61 37
Houston 97.0 97.8 96.3 97.0 61 36
Jacksonville 93.1 94.5 92.7 93.4 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.5 105.2 105.1 63 42
Kansas City 104.0 103.8 104.5 104.1 64 40
Oakland 102.3 102.8 103.1 102.7 67 36
San Diego 99.3 100.1 99.1 99.5 64 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.9 104.2 105.5 104.9 63 42
Washington 101.6 101.3 101.6 101.5 63 39
Philadelphia 100.0 98.8 99.5 99.4 60 39
N.Y. Giants 99.2 98.8 99.3 99.1 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.4 101.7 102.2 102.1 59 43
Detroit 101.4 101.1 101.3 101.3 62 39
Green Bay 99.8 99.6 99.7 99.7 64 36
Chicago 93.7 92.7 93.5 93.3 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 104.7 105.4 104.7 104.9 70 35
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
Carolina 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 60 41
New Orleans 100.1 100.9 100.3 100.4 67 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 108.3 106.1 108.8 107.7 63 45
Arizona 102.7 101.6 102.7 102.3 63 39
Los Angeles 96.5 97.3 96.1 96.7 55 42
San Francisco 88.5 89.5 87.9 88.6 54 35

This Week’s NBA Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Kansas City Oakland 4.7 4.0 4.4 57
Buffalo Pittsburgh -0.2 0.4 -0.5 46
Carolina San Diego 4.8 4.0 5.0 45
Cleveland Cincinnati -11.8 -10.6 -12.3 41
Detroit Chicago 10.2 10.9 10.3 40
Indianapolis Houston 4.4 5.1 4.7 51
Jacksonville Minnesota -6.3 -4.2 -6.5 38
Miami Arizona -2.7 -1.2 -2.6 47
Philadelphia Washington 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 47
Tampa Bay New Orleans 4.4 3.7 4.3 59
Tennessee Denver -4.8 -2.6 -4.7 47
San Francisco New York Jets -4.1 -2.0 -5.1 38
Green Bay Seattle -5.5 -3.5 -6.1 48
Los Angeles Atlanta -5.2 -5.1 -5.6 48
New York Giants Dallas -2.7 -2.4 -3.2 48
New England Baltimore 10.3 9.1 12.4 48

 

 

 

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September 20, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 3: September 22-26,2016

Quarterback Issues Abound

It is almost inevitable that in today’s philosophy of passing the ball more than running, and with a 16- game schedule, that quarterback injuries would increase from the prior generation of NFL Football.

Certain teams lack pass blockers sufficient to deter the superior pass rushers of today’s game, and all sorts of inventive disguising of pass rush have contributed as much if not more to the troubles.

Just two weeks into the 2016 NFL season, two teams are already on quarterback number three, and others have gone to quarterback number two.

In Cleveland, where the Browns were weak enough before losing Robert Griffin, III and Josh McCown, rookie Cody Kessler will get the start this week at Miami.  Adam Gase’s defense is not the issue in Dolphinland.  Expect Kessler to be running for his life early and often.

New England is down to quarterback number three only due to Tom Brady’d suspension.  If the Pats can sneak through two weeks with Jacoby Brissett, then the king can return.  And, if something should happen to Brissett Thursday night against Houston, we may see wide receiver Julian Edelman move to quarterback.  Edelman has beaten Buffalo and Miami while playing quarterback, but that was when he was at Kent State, and the two teams were the Buffalo Bulls and Miami of Ohio Redhawks.

Jay Cutler’s thumb injury could be reason for John Fox to go with Brian Hoyer.  The Bears, already struggling on offense, may have a difficult time matching the Rams for points in the near future.

Then there is the case of a possible Wally Pipp injury.  When Tony Romo went down in Dallas, rookie Dak Prescott entered and drew comparisons to Roger Staubach.  Staubach once came in as a replacement to Craig Morton.  It took a little shuffling, but Morton soon became a bench-warmer before becoming a New York Giant and Denver Bronco.  Staubach led the Cowboys to two Super Bowl Championships and two others, where Dallas came very close to winning.

And, there is Sam Bradford in Minnesota.  This Vikings team may have to totally change the way it plays now with Adrian Peterson out for a lengthy time and maybe the season.  Bradford showed signs of returning to form in the Sunday night win over Green Bay.  The Vikings have been down this road before.  After the Joe Kapp, Dave Osborn, Bill Brown days of plodding offense, and the two-year babysitting of the job by Gary Cuozzo, Fran Tarkenton came back to Bloomington after a five-year sojourn in the Big Apple, and he teamed up with John Gilliam and Jim Lash, while the Purple People Eaters’ defense continued to dominate, leading the Vikings to the Super Bowl three times in four seasons.  Might this be the year the Vikings make it back?  The NFC looks like a wide-open race this year.

 

Two Weeks Are Not A Trend, But

Through two weeks of the season, the average score of an NFL game comes to less than 42 points per game, or less than 21 points per team.  The Los Angeles Rams have three field goals in two games.  The Seattle Seahawks have three field goals and a touchdown in two games, and that one TD came with 30 seconds remaining at home against Miami.  Is it because the Dolphins and Rams have great defenses that Seattle is averaging just 7.5 points per game?  Are the 49ers and Seahawks so strong defensively that LA averages just 4.5 points per game?

San Francisco gave up close to 50 to Carolina last week.  The problem at the L.A. Coliseum is an archaic offense that Jeff Fisher refuses to alter.  He is a Mike Ditka disciple, but he needs to realize that the 1985 Bears are not coming through the Coliseum locker room doors.  He does not have Eddie George in his backfield, even though Todd Gurley is talented.

Sports metric experts have shown that the key to winning in the NFL is being able to pass the ball and being able to stop the pass.  Running stats are padded by winning teams because they usually run the ball to eat the clock when they lead in the last 20 minutes of games, and the losing team abandons the run to try to catch up.  Fisher is basically the Gene Mauch of football.  Mauch took a lot of excellent baseball teams and guided them to respectable 90-win seasons, while the talent on hand was good enough to win 100 games.

Fisher isn’t alone.  Mike Mularkey and Rex Ryan think you can be the 1985 Bears or even 1963 Bears and win the Super Bowl.  It is true that Denver won last year without a dominating passing game, but they did not have a dominating running game.  They dominated by stopping the pass and by getting just enough passing yards to win.  Even a damaged Peyton Manning was good enough to accumulate necessary passing yards.  The Broncos did not run early and often.  They did not run on first down, run on second down and then pass conservatively on third down.  The metrics actually show that passing on first and second down and on third and less than five is the better percentage play, while running becomes the better option only on third and six to 12 yards.  And, for that matter, going for it on fourth down and less than 4 when outside your own 30 yard line is the  better statistical move (as is going for it on 4th and less than 4 when in field goal range).

Certainly, going against the traditional methods will occasionally cost a team a win, but in rebuttal, going against tradition will allow teams to win games they would have lost by using the old playbook tendencies.  And, the ignorant media will run a coach out of town on a rail for going against tradition and losing while never complimenting the coach that bucks the system and wins.  Hey, they are in the business, because they didn’t do so well in math class.

This Week’s Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
N. Y. Jets 103.9 101.6 105.1 103.5 62 42
New England 101.4 99.3 101.8 100.8 60 41
Buffalo 98.6 99.5 98.7 98.9 59 40
Miami 96.1 96.9 96.1 96.3 58 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Cincinnati 106.9 106.3 107.8 107.0 64 43
Pittsburgh 105.9 105.5 107.2 106.2 65 41
Baltimore 98.7 100.9 98.4 99.3 61 38
Cleveland 89.9 90.9 89.3 90.0 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 101.8 103.0 102.1 102.3 64 38
Indianapolis 97.1 98.9 96.0 97.3 61 36
Jacksonville 95.1 96.9 94.4 95.5 58 38
Tennessee 93.9 95.9 93.4 94.4 54 40
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 106.4 103.1 106.5 105.3 62 43
Kansas City 101.8 101.5 102.5 101.9 63 39
San Diego 99.9 100.9 99.7 100.2 64 36
Oakland 97.7 98.4 97.6 97.9 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 101.0 98.0 100.4 99.8 62 38
N.Y. Giants 99.0 98.3 98.7 98.7 62 37
Washington 97.3 98.1 97.0 97.5 61 37
Dallas 94.6 94.9 94.1 94.5 56 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 104.4 103.7 104.4 104.2 64 40
Minnesota 102.9 101.9 103.4 102.7 60 43
Detroit 99.2 99.0 98.8 99.0 62 37
Chicago 95.4 93.3 95.1 94.6 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 109.4 108.2 110.3 109.3 65 44
New Orleans 99.1 101.5 98.4 99.7 64 36
Atlanta 96.9 99.8 96.8 97.8 62 36
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.8 95.1 95.9 59 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Arizona 110.0 107.5 110.9 109.5 69 41
Seattle 106.4 103.3 107.1 105.6 63 43
Los Angeles 97.9 99.4 97.4 98.3 56 42
San Francisco 95.6 96.8 95.7 96.0 56 40

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Score
New England Houston 2.6 -0.7 2.7 23-21
Buffalo Arizona -7.9 -4.5 -8.7 20-27
Carolina Minnesota 9.5 9.3 9.9 24-14
Cincinnati Denver 3.5 6.2 4.3 21-16
Green Bay Detroit 7.7 7.2 8.1 28-20
Jacksonville Baltimore -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 20-21
Miami Cleveland 9.2 9.0 9.8 26-17
New York Giants Washington 4.2 2.7 4.5 27-23
Tennessee Oakland -0.8 0.5 -1.2 20-21
Seattle San Francisco 13.8 9.5 14.4 23-10
Tampa Bay Los Angeles 1.5 0.9 1.2 17-16
Indianapolis San Diego 0.2 1.0 -0.7 28-27
Kansas City New York Jets 0.9 2.9 0.4 24-23
Philadelphia Pittsburgh -2.9 -5.5 -4.8 23-27
Dallas Chicago 2.2 4.6 2.0 20-17
New Orleans Atlanta 5.2 4.7 4.6 31-26

 

November 26, 2015

Selections Against The Spread: November 26, 2015

It’s time to stuff your wallet with money.  And, how best may we recommend that your wallet gets stuffed?  Keep it there and do not use all these picks to lose it all.  There are retailers anxiously waiting to remove all that cash you have saved in the last 52 weeks, so waste it on that cheap drone toy that will be broken by January 10.

 

We have opened the vault and come forward with the most selections of the season for this week’s slate.  Rivalry games, games that are must win contests for bowl eligibility, and teams that are reversing earlier trends lead our selections this week.  A season high six money line parlays anchor 13 straight picks.  Enjoy, but only to look at them.  Don’t be like a certain reader here from the Las Vegas area that informed us three weeks ago that SHE played every money line parlay selection we issued and won a few hundred dollars after losing every week prior during this season by using other information.  Yes, she won some money that week, but if she followed our advice the following week, she gave a chunk back to Vegas.

 

Which brings us to another point:  for some reason, women seem to be following this blog more than men, or at least, they contact us more than the guys.  As some of you know, this site is run by a majority of the fairer sex.  Our founder is the only male contributing here.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all our American followers.  Happy Autumn/Spring to all our followers on the other side of the pond and on the lower side of the Earth.

 

11/27/2015      
Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Buffalo Massachusetts 6.5 Buffalo
Georgia St. Troy 1 Georgia St.
Tulane Tulsa -6.5 Tulsa
San Jose St. Boise St. -7.5 San Jose St.
Kentucky Louisville -4.5 Kentucky
Michigan St. Penn St. 11 Penn St.
Purdue Indiana -6.5 Indiana
Illinois (@Chi.) Northwestern -3.5 Northwestern
Stanford Notre Dame 3.5 Stanford
Detroit Philadelphia 2 Detroit
Dallas Carolina 1 Carolina
Green Bay Chicago 9 Chicago
Houston New Orleans 3 Houston
       
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 7-5   $245 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla)   Pittsburgh
Buffalo Massachusetts   Buffalo
Akron Kent St.   Akron
       
Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 13-10   $230 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Toledo Western Michigan   Toledo
Tulsa Tulane   Tulsa
West Virginia Iowa St.   West Virginia
Tennessee Vanderbilt   Tennessee
       
Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 7-3   $325 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Utah Colorado   Utah
Florida St. Florida   Florida St.
Georgia Georgia Tech   Georgia
Clemson South Carolina   Clemson
       
Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 3-2   $256 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
LSU Texas A&M   LSU
Alabama Auburn   Alabama
Oklahoma Oklahoma St.   Oklahoma
San Diego St. Nevada   San Diego St.
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 8-3   $358 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Houston New Orleans   Houston
Kansas City Buffalo   Kansas City
New York Jets Miami   New York Jets
       
Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 13-10   $233 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Cincinnati St. Louis   Cincinnati
Arizona San Francisco   Arizona
New England Denver   New England

 

 

November 8, 2015

College Football Preview: November 10-14, 2015

The Week That Was–The Big Skakedown
It started last Tuesday with Northern Illinois knocking off unbeaten Toledo. Memphis, Michigan State, TCU, and LSU followed suit, and now it’s down to Clemson, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Ohio State, and Iowa. Five unbeaten teams remain, but at least two of the quintet must lose, because Ohio State and Iowa would meet in the Big Ten Championship Game if they won out, and Baylor and Oklahoma State must play in the regular season.

Does this mean that #1 Clemson’s path is clear and easy? No, because the Tigers may not be the best team in the ACC at the present time. North Carolina had a bump in the road in the opening week of the season, blowing a lead and losing to South Carolina to open the season. Since then, the Tar Heels have dominated on both sides of the ball. The most recent win, a blowout of rival Duke, moves UNC into the driver’s seat in the Coastal Division.

The schedule does not have as many great games this week, but there are many important ones. Not only are conference races still up for grabs, there are about 20 teams competing for the final six to eight bowl bids. As we believed last week, we continue to believe this week that only 79 teams will reach bowl eligibility. That means one 5-7 team will back into a bowl game. The rule states that if it comes down to 5-7 teams, the tiebreaker is the last football APR (academic progress rate) score. In case you were wondering, Nebraska is number one in line with a 985 score, followed by Vanderbilt (983), Army (981), Rutgers (980), Boston College (980), Georgia Tech (978), Virginia Tech (977), Washington (977), and Kansas St. (976) (teams already bowl eligible were not included in the APR rankings.)

Let’s break the conference races down and show you just how dysfunctional the race to the Playoffs could be.

Power Five Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Clemson sits pretty at 6-0/9-0 with little competition in their site in the regular season. However, North Carolina looks to be headed to an 8-0 finish. We believe that the Tar Heels have a better than 50-50 chance of beating Clemson and securing the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.

Notre Dame is included in the ACC write-up, since the Irish can receive an ACC bowl bid and even jump over an ACC team with one additional win. The Irish must close out the season at Stanford, and as of now, we believe the Cardinal will win a close one. At 10-2, Notre Dame would jump over everybody else in the ACC that isn’t automatically in a NY6 Bowl.

Florida State will look much better if the Seminoles edge Florida in three weeks, while Duke and Pittsburgh will decide who rates ahead of the other when they face off in Durham this week.

Miami, North Carolina State, and Louisville will go somewhere, while Virginia Tech still has a strong chance of getting a sixth win. Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Virginia are out for now.

Big Ten
Ohio State and Iowa look like they are headed to an epic 12-0 vs. 12-0 battle in the Big Ten Championship Game, but those sneaky PiRates believe there is going to be a little fly in the Buckeye ointment. All season long, we have been looking at the upstart rival up north. Michigan may be repeating history from 1969. If you didn’t read our analogy from October, we compared this season to 1969, when defending national champion Ohio State entered the final game undefeated and ranked number one, while Michigan came into the game with two losses, one to a conference champion from another power conference, and one to Michigan State. In 1969, Michigan’s defense shut down Ohio State in the second half and pulled off a big upset at the Big House to win the Big Ten title. The PiRates believe history can and will repeat itself, and Michigan will win the East by upsetting Ohio State again.

Iowa must lost twice for Wisconsin to pass them in the standings, and the Hawkeyes close with Minnesota and Purdue at home and Nebraska on the road. The Hawkeyes might run the table, but we believe Michigan or Ohio State would beat them in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should Michigan State upset Ohio State and take the East Division flag, then Iowa might take the conference title and advance to the playoffs at 13-0. For now, we say Michigan over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. That would leave an Ohio State team at 11-1 probably as the number four seed in the playoffs.

Besides the five teams previously mentioned, Penn State and Northwestern are sure things for bowls. Indiana and Rutgers have the next two best chances to get to 6-6, while Illinois, Minnesota, and Nebraska have minor chances.

Big 12
TCU can still win the Big 12 Championship, but the Horned Frogs are out of the playoff picture. Oklahoma State and Baylor, remain undefeated, while Oklahoma sits a game back with one loss. Baylor still must play all three of the contenders consecutively, and we believe the Bears are going to lose at least one game and more likely two of the three.

Oklahoma cannot lose another game and win the league, and the Sooners close with the other three contenders, with Baylor and Oklahoma State coming on the road.

Oklahoma State has a winnable road game against Iowa State, and then the Cowboys close with home games against Baylor and Oklahoma. After OSU dismissed TCU, it looks like the boys from Stillwater have the best chance of running the table and entering the playoffs at 12-0.

There is quite a drop after the top four. We see three additional bowl eligible teams in West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. As for Texas, the Longhorns are 4-5 with games at West Virginia, home against Texas Tech, and a finale at Baylor. It looks like 5-7 for the Longhorns, and 5-7 may not allow Coach Charlie Strong to keep his job.

Pac-12
This is an interesting race, and it may be so balanced at this point that no team emerges with just one loss. In the North, Stanford needs one more conference win to clinch the division. The Cardinal can do that this week against Oregon, but if the Ducks win, the race is still alive. The Ducks could then win the division by knocking off USC and Oregon State, if California beats Stanford.

Washington State can still tie for the division crown by winning at UCLA, home against Colorado, and at Washington, if Stanford loses to Oregon and Cal, and Oregon wins out. However, the Cougars have been eliminated from the Pac-12 Championship Game, because Oregon would edge WSU with a better intradivisional record.

California needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and the Bears should get that against Oregon State this week. Washington might finish 5-7 with losses at Arizona State and against Washington State, but the Huskies might be the one lucky 5-7 team to make it to a bowl thanks to their APR score.

The South Division title is still undecided with Utah holding a one game lead over USC and UCLA. The Trojans beat the Utes earlier this year, while Utah and UCLA have yet to play, and of course USC and UCLA have yet to play. Utah is not getting much respect, and the Utes are not totally out of the playoff race themselves. If they beat UCLA and then knock off Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game, a 12-1 Utah team could make a case, especially if USC continues to win.

Arizona State is a wounded team coming in with just one engine, but the Seminoles have the best shot of the rest of getting to 6-6.

Southeastern
Who is going to beat Alabama the rest of the way? The Crimson Tide are supposed to be headed for a trap game at Mississippi State this week, but the Bulldogs do not have enough talent to upset the Tide, unless ‘Bama gives them 14 points in turnovers like they did against Ole Miss.

Ole Miss played themselves out of the conference championship picture with the loss to Arkansas. Facemask penalties can be big. LSU could only win the West if they win out and Alabama loses. It may be even harder for the Tigers to win out than for someone else to beat Alabama.

The rest of this division will also be bowl eligible, an incredible seven out of seven. Because of this, a 12-1 Alabama team might deserve to be the overal number one seed regardless of who else goes undefeated.

Florida has already clinched the East Division, but the Gators might still lose two more games. A team that scores just nine points at home on Vanderbilt could easily lose at South Carolina or at home to Florida State, and they will lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

Tennessee was 3-4 two weeks ago, but the Volunteers should win out to finish 8-4 and take second in the division. Georgia has a tough finishing conference game at Auburn, but the Bulldogs finish with two sure things out of conference against Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech. If they lose either one, then Mark Richt becomed unemployed.

Kentucky has now lost four games in a row to fall to 4-5, but the Wildcats’ next two games are winnable. This week’s game at Vanderbilt could be tough, but the Commodores’ offense is as weak as any Power Six Conference team, and a couple of scores could be all the Wildcats need to secure a win. The following week’s game against Charlotte should get the ‘Cats bowl eligible if they knock off the Commodores this week.

South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Missouri are out of the bowl race, and Missouri’s team could be looking at one or more forfeit losses to close the season due to racial tensions on the campus leading to a team walkout. Missouri’s proposed finishing schedule includes a game against BYU in Kansas City this weekend, followed by a home game against Tennessee and a road game against Arkansas.

Group of Five Conferences

American Athletic
Navy’s upset of Memphis ruined the big game for this week, when the Tigers go to Houston. Houston is still in control of the New Year’s Six Bowl that goes to the best Group of Five team, but the Cougars have three tough games to go. Besides needing to beat Memphis, they have to beat Navy and then Temple in the AAC Championship Game.

Don’t count out Navy just yet. The Midshipmen’s lone loss is to Notre Dame, and they did not look like the underdog pulling off a surprise in the win at Memphis. Navy could do the same thing to Houston and take the West Division flag.

Tulsa is not in contention in the West, but the Golden Hurricane needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. The season-ended against Tulane ought to give UT that win.

Temple has a two-game lead in the East Division, but they have a tough closing schedule. The Owls play at the hot South Florida Bulls this week, and USF is still alive in the division race. TU then finishes with home games against Memphis and Connecticut. We believe TU will win out and then win the Conference Championship Game to earn the New Year’s Six Bowl bid.

Besides USF, Cincinnati appears to be the only other team headed to bowl eligibility, as Connecticut and East Carolina don’t appear to have enough winnable games left.

Conference USA
Any chance that a C-USA team could make it to the New Year’s Six Bowl was lost when Marshall lost at Middle Tennessee this past weekend. Western Kentucky already had two losses, and even if the Hilltoppers win out, they will not jump over every AAC team.

The Middle Tennessee win virtually locked up a bowl bid for the Blue Raiders, while Old Dominion and Florida International still hold slim chances of making it to six wins.

In the West, Louisiana Tech looks invincible at this point, but Southern Miss. still has a shot. We believe the winner of that game will eventually emerge as the overall conference champion and have first dibs on which of seven contracted bowls they wish to accept, or in other words accepts the Bahamas Bowl.

Rice and UTEP still have even money odds’ chances of finishing 6-6.

Independents
BYU has already clinched a bowl, and they will be invited to either the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl.

Army already has seven losses, but if the Black Knights beat Tulane, Rutgers, and Navy, they could still earn a bowl bid with a superior APR score. We think West Point will lose an eighth, ninth, and tenth game, so it is a moot point.

Mid-American
Bowling Green is up two games with three to play in the East, and the Falcons would have to lose all three for Buffalo to surpass them. The Bulls need just one more win to become bowl eligible, and that should happen with a game against UMass on November 27, if not at Akron the week before.

Akron needs two more wins, and the Zips still have Miami of Ohio and Kent State on their schedule. Call it 6-6 for Terry Bowden’s crew, as Akron makes it to a bowl for the second time ever.

Ohio needs one more win to earn a bowl bid. The Bobcats were once a leading contender to win the division, but the season soured at the halfway point. Weak opponents in consecutive weeks against Kent State and Ball State should get Ohio to 7-5.

The West Division is a mess thanks to last week’s results. Western Michigan is now alone in first place at 5-0, but the Broncos have a killer finishing schedule against Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Toledo, the latter two on the road.

Toledo, Northern Illinois, and Central Michigan are in a three-way tie at 4-1. TU has a schedule the equal of WMU with games at CMU, at BGU, and at home against WMU. NIU has it a little easier with games at Buffalo, and home against WMU and Ohio. CMU closes with Toledo at home but their final two games are easy wins against Kent State and Eastern Michigan. The Chippewas were a consensus 5th place choice in the preseason, and first year coach John Bonamego will draw a lot of attention from bigger schools after spending most of his career coaching in the NFL.

Mountain West
It was supposed to be a slam dunk 13-0 season for Boise State, but the Broncos stumbled early against BYU and lost at Utah State. Still, BSU can win the Mountain Division with a closing schedule of New Mexico, Air Force, and San Jose State. The Broncos will not be the favored team in the conference championship game if they win the division title.

Air Force still controls its own destiny in the Mountain Division, and hiding in the bushes, New Mexico also controls its own destiny. Bob Davie’s Lobos may not win out and take the division flag, but UNM needs just one more win to earn their first bowl bid since 2007. Utah State needs help to win the division and appears headed to a 6-6 finish.

Colorado State must win two more games to get to six wins, and the Rams should do it by defeating UNLV and Fresno State. That would mean five of the six Mountain teams would earn a bowl bid.

The West Division is not so fortunate. Only San Diego State is assured of earning a bowl bid at this point, and the Aztecs appear to be the class of the entire league this year.

Nevada should finish 6-6, but there is no guarantee that the Wolfpack will win another game with San Jose State, Utah State, and San Diego State left to play. As for San Jose State, the Spartans are 4-5 after a close loss to BYU, and they close with Nevada, Hawaii, and Boise State. The winner of the Nevada-San Jose State game should finish 6-6, but that is not for sure.

Sun Belt
In a weeknight surprise, Arkansas State upset Appalachian State to take command in the SBC. The Red Wolves have three easy marks in their way to the SBC title in Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, and Texas State. The fans in Jonesboro might be getting nervous, not because ASU could be upset, but because someone may come calling for Coach Blake Anderson.

Appalachian State will still go bowling this year, as will Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Lafayette.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 129.6 127.4 129.5 128.8
2 Ohio St. 128.5 123.1 129.3 127.0
3 Baylor 127.8 124.0 128.1 126.6
4 Oklahoma 127.0 123.7 127.6 126.1
5 Stanford 124.2 122.3 124.6 123.7
6 Clemson 122.9 124.1 123.6 123.5
7 TCU 126.0 117.7 126.4 123.4
8 LSU 123.6 120.8 123.7 122.7
9 Notre Dame 123.1 120.2 123.1 122.1
10 USC 122.0 118.1 122.0 120.7
11 North Carolina 120.3 120.8 120.6 120.6
12 Utah 121.9 116.8 121.4 120.0
13 UCLA 122.2 116.2 120.8 119.7
14 Ole Miss 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
15 Tennessee 120.6 116.5 120.4 119.2
16 Oklahoma St. 119.2 116.6 119.8 118.5
17 Florida 119.4 116.0 119.4 118.3
18 Michigan 119.0 116.2 119.1 118.1
19 Arkansas 118.8 113.6 118.0 116.8
20 Mississippi St. 116.7 113.4 117.2 115.8
21 Auburn 116.0 113.6 115.4 115.0
22 Oregon 117.1 110.8 116.7 114.9
23 Georgia 117.2 110.7 116.1 114.7
24 Michigan St. 115.5 112.3 114.8 114.2
25 Florida St. 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
26 Texas A&M 115.6 112.1 113.4 113.7
27 California 115.1 109.4 114.2 112.9
28 Houston 109.9 115.9 112.1 112.6
29 Wisconsin 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
30 Iowa 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
31 Georgia Tech 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
32 Arizona St. 113.6 108.1 112.1 111.3
33 Boise St. 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
34 North Carolina St. 110.4 112.2 109.4 110.7
35 West Virginia 112.9 106.9 111.9 110.6
36 Bowling Green 107.8 112.8 110.9 110.5
37 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
38 Temple 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
39 Washington 110.1 107.1 110.4 109.2
40 Louisville 107.5 110.2 107.3 108.3
41 Nebraska 108.4 106.6 107.6 107.5
42 Pittsburgh 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.2
43 Memphis 106.5 107.4 107.1 107.0
44 Missouri 108.4 104.8 107.3 106.8
45 South Carolina 108.3 104.8 106.8 106.6
46 Cincinnati 105.3 107.2 107.1 106.5
47 Penn St. 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
48 Washington St. 107.4 103.8 107.7 106.3
49 Duke 106.1 106.3 106.2 106.2
50 BYU 106.2 105.6 106.8 106.2
51 Navy 104.6 108.1 105.4 106.0
52 Western Kentucky 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
53 San Diego St. 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
54 Arizona 107.3 101.9 106.5 105.2
55 Miami 104.2 104.7 105.1 104.7
56 Illinois 105.4 103.9 104.5 104.6
57 Minnesota 105.2 103.5 104.5 104.4
58 Texas Tech 107.1 98.9 106.7 104.2
59 Northwestern 104.1 104.3 103.9 104.1
60 Toledo 103.2 104.2 104.7 104.0
61 Texas 105.0 101.7 105.0 103.9
62 Louisiana Tech 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
63 Western Michigan 102.3 103.2 103.7 103.1
64 Kansas St. 106.1 96.3 105.3 102.6
65 Colorado 104.7 99.6 102.4 102.2
66 Virginia 101.6 99.7 101.3 100.9
67 Kentucky 102.5 98.0 100.7 100.4
68 Vanderbilt 101.5 97.7 101.7 100.3
69 Utah St. 99.5 99.8 99.5 99.6
70 Boston College 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
71 Northern Illinois 97.0 100.9 97.9 98.6
72 Iowa St. 99.6 95.9 99.4 98.3
73 Appalachian St. 96.4 99.3 98.2 98.0
74 Air Force 96.6 100.8 96.0 97.8
75 Georgia Southern 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
76 Indiana 96.5 96.5 95.8 96.3
77 Wake Forest 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
78 Marshall 95.4 96.3 95.6 95.8
79 South Florida 93.3 99.1 94.4 95.6
80 Purdue 96.4 95.3 94.9 95.5
81 Maryland 95.0 94.1 94.9 94.7
82 East Carolina 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
83 Syracuse 93.3 95.7 92.2 93.7
84 Rutgers 94.7 91.4 92.7 92.9
85 Arkansas St. 92.1 93.2 93.3 92.9
86 Middle Tennessee 93.3 92.3 92.9 92.8
87 Central Michigan 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
88 Southern Mississippi 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
89 San Jose St. 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
90 Colorado St. 92.7 92.0 91.9 92.2
91 Tulsa 90.2 94.5 91.2 92.0
92 Connecticut 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
93 Florida International 89.8 92.2 89.9 90.6
94 Nevada 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
95 New Mexico 89.0 90.0 88.2 89.1
96 Oregon St. 90.4 87.1 88.2 88.6
97 Ohio 85.7 89.8 87.0 87.5
98 Buffalo 83.2 89.3 85.0 85.8
99 Tulane 85.2 87.4 84.4 85.7
100 Akron 83.2 88.9 84.7 85.6
101 UNLV 84.0 86.5 85.4 85.3
102 Massachusetts 84.1 86.9 84.8 85.3
103 SMU 83.9 87.8 83.5 85.1
104 Troy 83.7 85.1 85.2 84.7
105 UL-Lafayette 83.5 86.2 83.8 84.5
106 Rice 82.8 85.9 82.7 83.8
107 Florida Atlantic 82.3 85.4 83.1 83.6
108 Hawaii 82.0 83.7 80.9 82.2
109 Army 77.9 86.7 79.4 81.3
110 Ball St. 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
111 Fresno St. 80.1 83.6 78.1 80.6
112 Kent St. 79.5 82.2 80.1 80.6
113 Wyoming 80.1 81.6 78.9 80.2
114 Central Florida 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
115 UT-San Antonio 78.8 81.3 79.2 79.8
116 UTEP 77.1 79.8 77.0 78.0
117 Georgia St. 77.3 77.5 78.0 77.6
118 Old Dominion 76.3 80.7 75.7 77.6
119 Texas St. 76.6 79.8 76.2 77.5
120 South Alabama 74.8 80.9 75.9 77.2
121 Miami (O) 74.1 79.0 74.7 75.9
122 Idaho 73.0 78.3 74.1 75.1
123 North Texas 72.6 76.6 72.7 74.0
124 Kansas 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
125 UL-Monroe 73.2 72.1 73.2 72.8
126 Eastern Michigan 70.7 76.9 70.0 72.5
127 New Mexico St. 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
128 Charlotte 68.4 70.6 68.5 69.2

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Baylor
5 Notre Dame
6 LSU
7 Oklahoma
8 Stanford
9 Iowa
10 Utah
11 TCU
12 Florida
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Michigan
15 Michigan St.
16 Houston
17 USC
18 Mississippi St.
19 North Carolina
20 Memphis
21 Ole Miss
22 Navy
23 UCLA
24 Florida St.
25 Northwestern
26 Temple
27 BYU
28 Wisconsin
29 Tennessee
30 Boise St.
31 Toledo
32 Texas A&M
33 Bowling Green
34 Oregon
35 Penn St.
36 Western Kentucky
37 Arkansas
38 Washington St.
39 Georgia
40 Pittsburgh
41 California
42 Miami (Fla)
43 West Virginia
44 Auburn
45 Washington
46 Cincinnati
47 Duke
48 Louisville
49 North Carolina St.
50 Appalachian St.
51 Western Michigan
52 Louisiana Tech
53 San Diego St.
54 Northern Illinois
55 Illinois
56 Texas Tech
57 Georgia Southern
58 Arizona St.
59 Nebraska
60 Georgia Tech
61 Central Michigan
62 Air Force
63 Kansas St.
64 Minnesota
65 Virginia Tech
66 Marshall
67 South Florida
68 Utah St.
69 Arkansas St.
70 Texas
71 Indiana
72 Arizona
73 South Carolina
74 Connecticut
75 Southern Miss.
76 Tulsa
77 Virginia
78 Iowa St.
79 Kentucky
80 Missouri
81 Buffalo
82 Vanderbilt
83 Maryland
84 Middle Tennessee
85 San Jose St.
86 East Carolina
87 Ohio
88 Rutgers
89 Syracuse
90 Boston College
91 Colorado
92 Louisiana-Lafayette
93 Colorado St.
94 Akron
95 New Mexico
96 Nevada
97 South Alabama
98 Purdue
99 Wake Forest
100 Oregon St.
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Old Dominion
104 UNLV
105 Rice
106 Kent St.
107 Ball St.
108 Tulane
109 SMU
110 Army
111 Texas St.
112 UTEP
113 Idaho
114 Massachusetts
115 Florida Atlantic
116 Georgia St.
117 Fresno St.
118 Hawaii
119 Miami (O)
120 Kansas
121 UTSA
122 New Mexico St.
123 Wyoming
124 Louisiana-Monroe
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.7 111.9 115.0 114.2
2 Pac-12 113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
3 Big 12 110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
4 ACC 107.5 108.3 107.1 107.6
5 Big Ten 107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
6 Indep. 102.4 104.2 103.1 103.2
7 AAC 95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
8 MWC 91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
9 MAC 87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.0 88.0 86.2 86.7
11 SBC 81.6 84.0 82.4 82.7

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 5-0 8-1 108.8 110.9 109.5 109.7
Cincinnati 2-3 5-4 105.3 107.2 107.1 106.5
South Florida 3-2 5-4 93.3 99.1 94.4 95.6
East Carolina 2-4 4-6 92.6 96.2 93.1 94.0
Connecticut 3-3 5-5 88.8 93.7 90.0 90.8
Central Florida 0-6 0-10 79.1 82.1 79.4 80.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 5-0 9-0 109.9 115.9 112.1 112.6
Memphis 4-1 8-1 106.5 107.4 107.1 107.0
Navy 5-0 7-1 104.6 108.1 105.4 106.0
Tulsa 2-3 5-4 90.2 94.5 91.2 92.0
Tulane 1-5 2-7 85.2 87.4 84.4 85.7
SMU 0-5 1-8 83.9 87.8 83.5 85.1
             
AAC Averages     95.7 99.2 96.4 97.1
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 6-0 9-0 122.9 124.1 123.6 123.5
Florida St. 5-2 7-2 114.1 114.8 113.4 114.1
North Carolina St. 2-3 6-3 110.4 112.2 109.4 110.7
Louisville 4-2 5-4 107.5 110.2 107.3 108.3
Boston College 0-7 3-7 99.2 102.0 97.6 99.6
Wake Forest 1-5 3-6 95.2 98.5 94.5 96.1
Syracuse 1-4 3-6 93.3 95.7 92.2 93.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 5-0 8-1 120.3 120.8 120.6 120.6
Georgia Tech 1-5 3-6 112.7 110.3 111.3 111.4
Virginia Tech 2-3 4-5 110.2 109.9 110.0 110.0
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-3 106.8 107.3 107.4 107.2
Duke 3-2 6-3 106.1 106.3 106.2 106.2
Miami 3-2 6-3 104.2 104.7 105.1 104.7
Virginia 2-3 3-6 101.6 99.7 101.3 100.9
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.3 107.1 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 5-0 8-0 127.8 124.0 128.1 126.6
Oklahoma 5-1 8-1 127.0 123.7 127.6 126.1
TCU 5-1 8-1 126.0 117.7 126.4 123.4
Oklahoma St. 6-0 9-0 119.2 116.6 119.8 118.5
West Virginia 1-4 4-4 112.9 106.9 111.9 110.6
Texas Tech 2-5 5-5 107.1 98.9 106.7 104.2
Texas 3-3 4-5 105.0 101.7 105.0 103.9
Kansas St. 0-5 3-5 106.1 96.3 105.3 102.6
Iowa St. 2-4 3-6 99.6 95.9 99.4 98.3
Kansas 0-6 0-9 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.6 105.1 110.4 108.7
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-0 9-0 128.5 123.1 129.3 127.0
Michigan 4-1 7-2 119.0 116.2 119.1 118.1
Michigan St. 4-1 8-1 115.5 112.3 114.8 114.2
Penn St. 4-2 7-3 106.5 106.7 106.3 106.5
Indiana 0-5 4-5 96.5 96.5 95.8 96.3
Maryland 0-5 2-7 95.0 94.1 94.9 94.7
Rutgers 1-5 3-6 94.7 91.4 92.7 92.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 5-1 8-2 112.7 112.3 111.8 112.3
Iowa 5-0 9-0 110.7 112.9 111.3 111.6
Nebraska 2-4 4-6 108.4 106.6 107.6 107.5
Illinois 2-3 5-4 105.4 103.9 104.5 104.6
Minnesota 1-4 4-5 105.2 103.5 104.5 104.4
Northwestern 3-2 7-2 104.1 104.3 103.9 104.1
Purdue 1-4 2-7 96.4 95.3 94.9 95.5
             
Big Ten Averages     107.0 105.7 106.5 106.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 6-0 8-2 105.6 105.7 106.6 106.0
Marshall 5-1 8-2 95.4 96.3 95.6 95.8
Middle Tennessee 3-2 4-5 93.3 92.3 92.9 92.8
Florida International 3-3 5-5 89.8 92.2 89.9 90.6
Florida Atlantic 2-4 2-7 82.3 85.4 83.1 83.6
Old Dominion 2-3 4-5 76.3 80.7 75.7 77.6
Charlotte 0-6 2-7 68.4 70.6 68.5 69.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 5-1 7-3 103.4 103.6 104.5 103.8
Southern Mississippi 4-1 6-3 91.7 93.8 92.5 92.7
Rice 2-3 4-5 82.8 85.9 82.7 83.8
UT-San Antonio 1-4 1-8 78.8 81.3 79.2 79.8
UTEP 2-3 4-5 77.1 79.8 77.0 78.0
North Texas 1-5 1-8 72.6 76.6 72.7 74.0
             
CUSA Averages     86.0 88.0 86.2 86.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-1 123.1 120.2 123.1 122.1
BYU   7-2 106.2 105.6 106.8 106.2
Army   2-7 77.9 86.7 79.4 81.3
             
Independents Averages     102.4 104.2 103.1 103.2
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 5-0 7-2 107.8 112.8 110.9 110.5
Ohio 2-3 5-4 85.7 89.8 87.0 87.5
Buffalo 3-2 5-4 83.2 89.3 85.0 85.8
Akron 2-3 4-5 83.2 88.9 84.7 85.6
Massachusetts 0-5 1-8 84.1 86.9 84.8 85.3
Kent St. 2-3 3-6 79.5 82.2 80.1 80.6
Miami (O) 1-5 2-8 74.1 79.0 74.7 75.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-1 7-1 103.2 104.2 104.7 104.0
Western Michigan 5-0 6-3 102.3 103.2 103.7 103.1
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 97.0 100.9 97.9 98.6
Central Michigan 4-1 5-4 90.7 95.0 92.8 92.8
Ball St. 2-4 3-7 80.4 82.6 81.0 81.3
Eastern Michigan 0-6 1-9 70.7 76.9 70.0 72.5
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-1 7-2 112.4 109.0 112.1 111.2
Utah St. 4-2 5-4 99.5 99.8 99.5 99.6
Air Force 4-1 6-3 96.6 100.8 96.0 97.8
Colorado St. 2-3 4-5 92.7 92.0 91.9 92.2
New Mexico 3-2 5-4 89.0 90.0 88.2 89.1
Wyoming 1-5 1-9 80.1 81.6 78.9 80.2
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-0 6-3 104.0 108.4 105.5 106.0
San Jose St. 3-2 4-5 91.7 94.4 91.9 92.7
Nevada 3-2 5-4 89.1 93.0 88.9 90.3
UNLV 2-3 3-6 84.0 86.5 85.4 85.3
Hawaii 0-6 2-8 82.0 83.7 80.9 82.2
Fresno St. 1-5 2-7 80.1 83.6 78.1 80.6
             
MWC Averages     91.8 93.6 91.4 92.3
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 7-0 8-1 124.2 122.3 124.6 123.7
Oregon 4-2 6-3 117.1 110.8 116.7 114.9
California 2-4 5-4 115.1 109.4 114.2 112.9
Washington 2-4 4-5 110.1 107.1 110.4 109.2
Washington St. 4-2 6-3 107.4 103.8 107.7 106.3
Oregon St. 0-6 2-7 90.4 87.1 88.2 88.6
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 4-2 6-3 122.0 118.1 122.0 120.7
Utah 5-1 8-1 121.9 116.8 121.4 120.0
UCLA 4-2 7-2 122.2 116.2 120.8 119.7
Arizona St. 2-4 4-5 113.6 108.1 112.1 111.3
Arizona 2-5 5-5 107.3 101.9 106.5 105.2
Colorado 1-5 4-6 104.7 99.6 102.4 102.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 108.4 112.3 111.2
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 3-3 5-4 120.6 116.5 120.4 119.2
Florida 6-1 8-1 119.4 116.0 119.4 118.3
Georgia 4-3 6-3 117.2 110.7 116.1 114.7
Missouri 1-5 4-5 108.4 104.8 107.3 106.8
South Carolina 1-6 3-6 108.3 104.8 106.8 106.6
Kentucky 2-5 4-5 102.5 98.0 100.7 100.4
Vanderbilt 1-4 3-6 101.5 97.7 101.7 100.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-1 8-1 129.6 127.4 129.5 128.8
LSU 4-1 7-1 123.6 120.8 123.7 122.7
Ole Miss 4-2 7-3 122.2 116.9 120.1 119.7
Arkansas 3-2 5-4 118.8 113.6 118.0 116.8
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 116.7 113.4 117.2 115.8
Auburn 2-4 5-4 116.0 113.6 115.4 115.0
Texas A&M 3-3 6-3 115.6 112.1 113.4 113.7
             
SEC Averages     115.7 111.9 115.0 114.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 4-1 7-2 96.4 99.3 98.2 98.0
Georgia Southern 4-1 6-2 95.9 98.7 96.8 97.1
Arkansas St. 5-0 6-3 92.1 93.2 93.3 92.9
Troy 2-3 3-6 83.7 85.1 85.2 84.7
UL-Lafayette 3-1 4-4 83.5 86.2 83.8 84.5
Georgia St. 1-3 2-6 77.3 77.5 78.0 77.6
Texas St. 1-3 2-6 76.6 79.8 76.2 77.5
South Alabama 2-2 4-4 74.8 80.9 75.9 77.2
Idaho 2-4 3-6 73.0 78.3 74.1 75.1
UL-Monroe 0-5 1-8 73.2 72.1 73.2 72.8
New Mexico St. 2-3 2-7 71.6 73.3 71.7 72.2
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.6 84.0 82.4 82.7

NCAA Playoff Projections
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio St.
4 Notre Dame

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team      
1 Houston      
2 Navy      
3 Temple      
4 Memphis      
5 Boise St.      

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team  
10 Boston College  
9 Iowa St.  
8 Indiana  
7 Wake Forest  
6 Purdue  
5 Maryland  
4 Syracuse  
3 Rutgers  
2 Oregon St.  
1 Kansas  

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.9
2 Harvard 94.2
3 North Dakota St. 91.9
4 McNeese St. 91.7
5 Dartmouth 91.5
6 Dayton 91.3
7 Charleston Southern 90.2
8 South Dakota St. 90.0
9 Illinois St. 89.6
10 Coastal Carolina 89.6

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 10        
Ohio Kent St. 8.7 10.1 9.4
Central Michigan Toledo -10.0 -6.7 9.4
         
Wednesday, November 11        
Buffalo Northern Illinois -10.8 -8.6 -9.9
Western Michigan Bowling Green -2.5 -6.6 -4.2
         
Thursday, November 12        
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette -6.2 -2.8 -5.4
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 5.5 3.4 4.3
         
Friday, November 13        
Colorado USC -14.3 -15.5 -16.6
         
Saturday, November 14        
Duke Pittsburgh 1.8 1.5 1.3
Auburn Georgia 1.8 5.9 2.3
South Carolina Florida -8.1 -8.2 -9.6
Tennessee North Texas 51.0 42.9 50.7
Army Tulane -4.3 2.3 -2.0
West Virginia Texas 10.9 8.2 9.9
Illinois Ohio St. -20.1 -16.2 -21.8
TCU Kansas 53.3 51.4 56.0
Michigan St. Maryland 23.5 21.2 22.9
Northwestern Purdue 10.2 11.5 11.5
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee -8.5 -4.4 -7.3
Miami (O) Akron -7.1 -7.9 -8.0
Old Dominion UTEP 2.2 3.9 1.7
Florida St. North Carolina St. 6.7 5.6 7.0
Louisville Virginia 8.9 13.5 9.0
Charlotte UTSA -7.9 -8.2 -8.2
Air Force Utah St. 0.1 4.0 -0.5
Eastern Michigan Massachusetts -11.4 -8.0 -12.8
Louisana-Monroe Arkansas St. -16.4 -18.6 -17.6
Arizona St. Washington 6.5 4.0 4.7
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) 19.1 19.1 18.5
Notre Dame Wake Forest 30.9 24.7 31.6
Syracuse Clemson -26.6 -25.4 -28.4
Mississippi St. Alabama -9.9 -11 -9.3
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. -16.6 -17.7 -17.4
Marshall Florida Int’l. 8.6 7.1 8.7
Rutgers Nebraska -11.2 -12.7 -12.4
Texas Tech Kansas St. 4.0 5.6 4.4
Indiana Michigan -19.5 -16.7 -20.3
Troy Georgia Southern -9.7 -11.1 -9.1
Rice Southern Miss. -6.4 -5.4 -7.3
Navy SMU 23.7 23.3 24.9
Nevada San Jose St. -0.1 1.1 -0.5
Texas St. Georgia St. 1.8 4.8 0.7
Vanderbilt Kentucky 1.0 1.7 3.0
Idaho Appalachian St. -20.4 -18.0 -21.1
South Florida Temple -12.5 -8.8 -12.1
Colorado St. UNLV 11.7 8.5 9.5
Houston Memphis 6.4 11.5 8.0
LSU Arkansas 7.8 10.2 8.7
Stanford Oregon 10.1 14.5 10.9
Missouri * BYU [3.2] [0.2] [1.5]
Cincinnati Tulsa 18.1 15.7 18.9
Baylor Oklahoma 3.8 3.3 3.5
Iowa Minnesota 8.5 12.4 9.8
Arizona Utah -11.6 -11.9 -11.9
Boise St. New Mexico 26.4 22.0 26.9
San Diego St. Wyoming 26.9 29.8 29.6
California Oregon St. 27.7 25.3 29.0
UCLA Washington St. 17.8 15.4 16.1
Hawaii Fresno St. 5.9 4.1 6.8
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 11 PiRate    
Texas A&M Western Carolina 29    
         
* Ongoing Strike of Missouri Football Team May Force Forfeiture Of This Game In Kansas City

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Appalachian St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Washington St. vs. San Diego St.
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Michigan vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Washington * ^ vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. California *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Arkansas St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Louisiana Tech vs. Toledo
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. BYU
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Houston vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Oregon
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Akron * vs. UTEP
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten North Carolina St. vs. Rutgers
Independence SEC ACC Arkansas vs. Miami (Fla)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Navy vs. Virginia Tech
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Ohio * vs. Nevada *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Buffalo * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma
Arizona CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee vs. Colorado St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Kentucky
Belk ACC SEC Duke vs. Auburn
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 North Carolina vs. Michigan
Cotton Playoff Playoff Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
Orange Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. Ohio St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. USC
Ouback Big Ten SEC Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Florida
Sugar Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. LSU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Temple
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Mississippi St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Ole Miss
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Stanford vs. Alabama
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot
^ = Washington qualifies for a bowl at 5-7 with highest APR score of 5-7 teams

October 29, 2015

Selections Against The Spread–October 29 – November 2, 2015

Well, the three-week hot streak came crashing to an end last week, as our Money Line picks lost a little bit from our account at the Fantasy Island Vegas Book.

This week, we go back to taking some sides in addition to four Money Line parlays with odds better than even money.  Additionally, we are issuing a parlay that includes an underdog to win outright, greatly increasing the odds to produce a windfall IF it wins.  IF is a big word, because not only must the underdog win outright, but another favorite must also win in order to cash this parlay for a big payout.

As always, remember that we do this strictly for fun and do not actually waste hard-earned money on ridiculously entertaining picks.

 

Selections Against The Spread For October 29 – November 2, 2015

10/29/2015      
Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Rice Louisiana Tech -13 Rice
North Carolina St. Clemson -10 North Carolina St.
Washington St. Stanford -11 Stanford
Texas Tech Oklahoma St. -3 Oklahoma St.
Houston Vanderbilt 12.5 Vanderbilt
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l -2.5 Florida Int’l
SMU Tulsa -3.5 Tulsa
Minnesota Michigan -14 Minnesota
UCLA Colorado 21.5 Colorado
Kansas City Detroit 5.5 Detroit
New Orleans New York Giants 3 New Orleans

 

Money Line Parlay Selections For October 29 – November 2, 2015

Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 6-5   $220 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
TCU West Virginia   TCU
Louisville Wake Forest   Louisville
Iowa Maryland   Iowa
Texas Iowa St.   Texas
       
       
Money Line Parlay 2 Teams at 5-2   $360 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Central Michigan Akron   AKRON
Idaho New Mexico St.   Idaho
       
Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 7-3   $330 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
New England Miami   New England
Atlanta Tampa Bay   Atlanta
St. Louis San Francisco   St. Louis
Baltimore San Diego   Baltimore

 

October 6, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 5: October 8-12, 2015

Another Seattle Controversy

For the second time in just a few years, a Monday Night Football game has ended in controversy in Seattle.  In the waning minutes of last night’s game between the Seahawks and the Detroit Lions, a Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson pass near the goalline was stopped a foot short of the end zone when Seattle defensive back Kam Chancellor stripped the ball away from Johnson, as he apparently tried to stretch his arm out to get the touchdown.

The ball rolled into the end zone, and Seattle linebacker K.J. Wright was the only person capable of recovering the ball as it slowly rolled toward the back line.  The only problem was that Wright encouraged the ball to leave the playing field by batting it with a gentle but definite push.

As the back judge stared from just a few feet away, the ball left the playing field and resulted in a touchback, giving Seattle the ball at their 20-yard line and effectively ending the game.

There is one catch.  A ball cannot be batted in the end zone.  It is a 10-yard penalty for illegal batting of the ball.  The correct call would have been to award Detroit the ball half the distance to the goalline from where the fumble occurred, or basically about 6-8 inches away from the goalline, plus an automatic first down.

The NFL later admitted that the referees had erred.  Speculation amongst ESPN personnel was that the officials refused to make a call that would obviously change the outcome of the game, because the ball was headed out of bounds and would have never been recovered by Detroit.  However, the rules are the rules, and officials have no business interpreting which rules should be enforced and which should be ignored.

This is not the first time a game in Seattle has been heavily scrutinized.  The “Fail Mary” play on Monday Night Football three years ago where Golden Tate pushed M.D. Jennings away and then stole the ball from Jennings when Jennings intercepted the ball at the end of the game.  Ironically, last night’s play occurred in the very spot where the 2012 play occurred.

As if that is not enough, the officiating of NFL games in Seattle has been called into question in a more blatant fashion by other bloggers.  Check out this supposed evidence.

The accusations of games being rigged are not a recent phenomenon.  Former Baltimore Colt star defensive end Bubba Smith went to his grave claiming that Super Bowl III was fixed in order to give the New York market a Super Bowl Champion and to give the American Football League credibility so that the upcoming merger would look better. Smith supplied no evidence, but many sports fans believed him then and have believed him ever since.

We here at the PiRate Ratings do not believe all the accusations, but we also are not naive to understand that hundreds of millions of dollars are wagered on NFL games, and there are people in this world that potentially have the power to “get” to personnel and encourage a game to be called a certain way.  Many people believe that organized crime once murdered a President to get rid of the Attorney General trying to end their reign of terror, so fixing a football game would be a walk in the park.

We pondered other games from the past that were nationally televised and ended in controversy, games that most likely had more money wagered on the outcome than the average game.  These are just games that one of the five of us saw live on TV and can remember.  In reverse chronological order, and excluding the Seattle games already mentioned, here is what we came up with.

 

A caveat to begin: we did not see any controversy in the 2014-15 Dallas-Green Bay playoff game.  Dez Bryant did not maintain control of the ball, and thus the correct call was made without controversy.

1999-2000 NFC Championship Game: The St. Louis Rams were the most exciting team in the NFL with their “Greatest Show on Turf” offense directed by offensive coordinator Mike Martz.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the most boring team in the NFL, leading the league in defense and low-scoring games.  Entering the fourth quarter in the game that would decide who would play another boring team in the AFC Champion Tennessee Titans, the Bucs led the Rams 6-5.  Kurt Warner drove the Rams for the go-ahead touchdown and led 11-6, but the Bucs responded with a nice drive of their own.  Quarterback  Shaun King threw a bullet pass to receiver Bert Emanuel who clearly caught the ball for a nice gain to set up a third and short inside Rams’ territory.

The officials were slow to stop the play and check the replay.  In the Fox Sports Booth, announcer Pat Summerall and analyst John Madden were perplexed at why there was a stoppage of play since Emanuel’s catch was obvious to everybody.  After booth review, the referee ruled the play an incomplete pass, and two plays later, the Rams were the NFC Champions.  The ruling was that the point of the football touched the ground when Emanuel fell after making the catch.  At the time, that rule was correct, but replay did not confirm that the ball actually touched the ground.  It should have been an inconclusive replay resulting in the play standing.  As a result, the most exciting team advanced to the Super Bowl over the most boring team in the NFL.

1979-80 AFC Championship Game: Trailing 17-10 in the fourth quarter at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsbugrh, the Houston Oilers are driving for the game-tying touchdown.  Near the goalline, quarterback Dan Pastorini throws the fade pass to receiver Mike Renfro in the back of the endzone.  Renfro makes the catch and slides to get both feet inbounds, which replay clearly showed he did.  Official Don Orr fails to make a call on the play.  According to Renfro, Orr looks like a ghost, as he “swallows his whistle.”  It takes what seems like several minutes, but more accurately is about 45 seconds for the officials to huddle and rule the pass incomplete, greatly affecting the outcome of the game, and maybe more importantly changing the betting side winner.  The Steelers were 9 1/2-point favorites and covered when they scored a late touchdown to win by 14.  There was no instant replay rule in football then.

1976 AFC Playoffs First Round:  The New England Patriots had come of age in 1976.  With a stable full of great running backs, including quarterback Steve Grogan, New England made its first NFL Playoff and first overall playoff since they were the Boston Patriots in 1963.  Included in this 11-3 season, they blew Oakland off the field in the regular season 48-17, the only loss the Raiders suffered.

In the first round of the AFC playoffs, the game was close and could have gone either way, but in the closing stages of the fourth quarter, it appeared that New England would pen loss number two on Oakland.  The Pats led 21-17 late in the final stanza, when Oakland had one last possession to try to score the winning touchdown.  All appeared lost for the Raiders, as they faced a 3rd and 18 from inside their own 30-yard line.  Quarterback Ken Stabler dropped back and looked long as the Raiders typically tried in this situation.  Patriot defensive tackle Ray Hamilton broke through the blocking containment and headed straight for Stabler.  As Stabler released the ball, Hamilton got a finger or two on the ball slightly altering the spiral and course of the flight.  At the same time, he dropped Stabler to the turf, for what should have been 4th and 18 with 70+ yards to go for the win and about 75 seconds remaining in the game.

The official failed to see the deflected pass, and he threw his yellow handkerchief signalling roughing the passer.  There should have been no roughing on two counts.  The ball was deflected, and Hamilton hit Stabler as he was finishing his release.  The 15-yard penalty and automatic first down.  The Patriots’ defense lost its composure over the blatant bad call, and Stabler led the Raiders to paydirt with 10 seconds left in the game.

1975 NFC Playoffs First Round: The Minnesota Vikings led the Dallas Cowboys 14-10 with 32 seconds remaining in the opening playoff game at cold, blustery Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington.  Roger Staubach has guided the Cowboys to midfield, but time is running out, and a field goal will do Dallas no good.  Staubach dropped back to pass and pumped to his left to draw Vikings’ free safety Paul Krausse away from the point of attack.  He then heaved the ball far down the right sideline toward receiver Drew Pearson.  Defensive back Nate Wright is on Pearson like a glove, and the pass is underthrown.  Pearson sees that he will have to stop and even back up a half-step to catch the ball, but Wright is in his way.  Pearson pushes Wright just enough to come back and catch the ball as Wright falls to the ground.  Pearson then side-steps Wright into the end zone from the four yard line, and Dallas wins the game 17-14, giving birth to the “Hail Mary.”

There was actually a rules change as the result of this game, and it had nothing to do with pass interference.  Two minutes after the touchdown and non-call of offensive interference, a half-full whiskey bottle was thrown with more accuracy than Staubach’s pass.  The intended target, the field judge that failed to make the call, was hit directly on the back of his noggin by the bottle, causing brief unconsciousness and a contusion that required bandaging.  After that day, no glass bottles were allowed in NFL venues.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 5      
Date of Games: October 8-12      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Indianapolis -2.3 -1.7 -1.9
Kansas City Chicago 10.0 11.7 10.2
Cincinnati Seattle 1.5 3.2 2.2
Atlanta Washington 9.6 10.7 11.1
Tampa Bay Jacksonville 3.4 -0.3 3.8
Philadelphia New Orleans 8.2 11.0 7.8
Baltimore Cleveland 13.2 13.6 13.8
Green Bay St. Louis 15.2 12.9 16.2
Tennessee Buffalo -2.9 -3.8 -2.3
Detroit Arizona -2.1 -2.4 -2.8
Dallas New England -1.1 -4.1 -1.1
Oakland Denver -11.2 -6.8 -11.9
NY Giants San Francisco 8.4 10.9 9.2
San Diego Pittsburgh -1.4 -1.4 -2.1
Special Note About NFL Colors: We get questions at our sister site http://www.piratings.webs.com asking us how we get the colors for the NFL teams.  We have a Pantone Matching System color-creator, and the official Pantone colors for the NFL teams.  We choose omit any black or white colors from the teams, and occasionally, we choose an alternate color rather than the principle color.  The same Navy pantone is used by six different teams, so we choose to use the Columbia blue for the Titans and Sky blue for the Chargers rather than repeat the Navy color.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 105.5 103.9 105.7 105.0 2-2-0 95 101
Philadelphia 102.7 101.9 102.5 102.4 1-3-0 78 86
N.Y. Giants 101.0 101.2 101.5 101.2 2-2-0 102 82
Washington 94.7 94.4 94.4 94.5 2-2-0 78 79
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.9 108.1 109.3 108.8 4-0-0 113 71
Minnesota 101.4 99.2 102.8 101.1 2-2-0 80 73
Detroit 101.1 100.0 100.8 100.6 0-4-0 66 96
Chicago 92.6 92.1 92.3 92.3 1-3-0 68 125
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 101.3 102.1 102.5 102.0 4-0-0 137 93
Carolina 101.4 101.5 101.7 101.5 4-0-0 108 71
New Orleans 97.5 93.9 97.7 96.4 1-3-0 86 104
Tampa Bay 91.1 91.6 90.5 91.1 1-3-0 72 117
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 106.8 106.1 106.7 106.5 2-2-0 87 71
Arizona 105.7 104.9 106.1 105.6 3-1-0 148 73
St. Louis 96.7 98.2 96.1 97.0 2-2-0 74 89
San Francisco 96.6 94.3 96.3 95.7 1-3-0 48 110
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 109.6 110.0 109.8 109.8 3-0-0 119 70
Buffalo 102.0 102.6 102.1 102.2 2-2-0 110 92
N. Y. Jets 101.4 101.9 102.1 101.8 3-1-0 95 55
Miami 94.8 96.2 93.5 94.8 1-3-0 65 101
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 104.8 105.8 105.4 105.3 4-0-0 121 77
Pittsburgh 104.0 104.0 104.1 104.0 2-2-0 96 75
Baltimore 103.9 103.2 104.4 103.8 1-3-0 93 104
Cleveland 93.7 92.6 93.6 93.3 1-3-0 85 102
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 100.8 101.2 100.2 100.7 2-2-0 72 93
Tennessee 96.1 95.8 96.8 96.2 1-2-0 89 77
Houston 95.5 96.5 95.3 95.8 1-3-0 77 108
Jacksonville 89.7 93.9 88.7 90.8 1-3-0 62 107
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 106.8 106.1 106.7 106.5 4-0-0 97 69
Kansas City 99.6 100.8 99.5 100.0 2-2-0 100 125
San Diego 99.6 99.6 99.0 99.4 2-2-0 96 110
Oakland 92.6 96.3 91.8 93.6 2-2-0 97 108

September 24, 2015

Selections Against The Spread–September 24-28, 2015

Today, we expand our fun nonsense with three different types of selections to lose you money quicker than if you throw it away playing one weekend fantasy games.  Before you throw away good money thinking you can be that one person in 20 million that makes a million dollars, and before you decide to lose it in the conventional way by playing the stock market, consider losing it this much more entertaining way.

Pardon us whilst we remove tongues from cheeks.

Seriously, just remember that these selections are worth less than what you pay for them.  Use these only as something to either endorse your prior beliefs of convince you to pocket that extra change in your wallet and buy some nice flowers for your utmost.

Today, we have decided to go with five sides picks, seven 10-point teasers, and one stupendous Money Line parlay.

Did we mention this: DO NOT use these picks as your guide to lose all your money this weekend.  How much will the PiRates wager this weekend?  A big fat 0.  We have chosen to go the flowers route; the payoff is so wonderful.

 

Sides

Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Syracuse LSU 24.5 Syracuse
Carolina New Orleans 3 Carolina
N. Y. Giants Washington 3 N. Y. Giants
Baltimore Cincinnati 2.5 Baltimore
Cleveland Oakland 3 Cleveland

10-Point Teasers

Home Visitor Teaser Pick
1
Washington California -14 Washington
Baylor Rice 44.5 Rice
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -21.5 Charlotte
         
2
Syracuse LSU -34.5 Syracuse
Michigan BYU 15.5 BYU
Kentucky Missouri 12.5 Missouri
         
3
Virginia Boise St. 7.5 Boise St.
Notre Dame Masachusetts 19 Notre Dame
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 15 Ole Miss
         
4
Dallas Atlanta 10 Atlanta
Carolina New Orleans -7 Carolina
St. Louis Pittsburgh 10 Pittsburgh
         
5
Miami Buffalo 12.5 Buffalo
N. Y. Giants Washington -7 N. Y. Giants
Houston Tampa Bay -3 Houston
         
6
Seattle Chicago 25.5 Chicago
New England Jacksonville 4.5 New England
Baltimore Cincinnati 12.5 Cincinnati
         
7
Cleveland Oakland -7 Cleveland
Green Bay Kansas City -2.5 Green Bay
Minnesota San Diego 11 San Diego

Money Line Parlay

For those two or three of you that have read this far and do not know what a Money Line parlay is, we will tell you, but we will also wonder why you have read this far in the first place.

The Money Line allows you to select the winner of a particular game without having to worry about a point spread.  However, since it is obvious that the favorite has a better chance to win the game than the underdog, you must pay a premium when you select the favorite to win the game.  For example, this week New England is an overwhelming favorite to beat Jacksonville.  The Money Line allows you to wager on New England to win the game by just one point and return money to you.  However, the Money Line odds for this game at most Las Vegas books is: New England -1400 and Jacksonville +800.  What this means is for every $1,400 you wager on New England at -1400, you can win $100 more than you wager.  So, if you put down $1,400 on New England on a Money Line wager, you receive $1,500 if New England wins (Your original $1,400 plus $100 profit, which is a return on your investment of 7.1%).  If you believe Jacksonville will upset the Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday and wager just $100 on the Jaguars to win the game, you stand to receive $900 (Your original $100 plus $800 profit) if Jacksonville wins.

A Money Line Parlay allows you to combine multiple games into one wager.  Let’s say that you have 3 favorites you believe will all win and feel confident enough to lay down cash for one combined wager.  For an example let’s use a possible 4-team Money Line Parlay for Sunday.

Houston is currently -280 vs. Tampa Bay

New England is currently -1400 vs. Jacksonville

Seattle is currently -1600 vs. Chicago

Green Bay is currently -320 vs. Kansas City

If you believe Houston, New England, Seattle, and Green Bay are certain winners and combine these four games into one wager, our parlay calculator says that for every $100 you wager, you will get back $203 (Your original $100 plus $103 profit) if the four teams all win.  If just one of the four loses or ties, then you lose your $100.

Just for fun, what if you think New England and Seattle will win with 100% belief in your mind?  What if you combine -1400 and -1600 into one wager?  The payout on $100 wagered would be just $114.  That is obviously a 14% return on your investment.  Now remember that in your mind this is 100% winnable.  Where else can you return 14% on an investment in one weekend?  Ah, this is why there are so many broke individuals in Las Vegas, and why the books and casinos can build new and improved versions every few years.  Who do you think wins the majority of these wagers?

Now that you have been warned, here is our super-duper 8-team Money Line Parlay for this week.  This returns at a rate slightly better than 3-2 if it wins.  For every $100 you wager on this parlay, if all eight teams win, your return is $251 (Your original $100 plus $151 profit).

And, here it is:

Money Line Parlay 8-team Parlay
3-2 odds
$151 payout for $100
Favorite Underdog  Odds Must Win
Nebraska Southern Miss.  -1400
Nebraska
Houston Texas St.  -800 Houston
Penn St. San Diego St.  -800 Penn St.
Western Kentucky Miami (O)  -1150 West Virginia
Georgia Southern Idaho  -750 Georgia Southern
South Carolina Central Florida  -650 South Carolina
Oregon Utah  -500 Oregon
Northwestern Ball St.  -1200 Northwestern

Did we mention that we strongly advise you not to wager real money on any of our recommendations?  Consider how much you paid for this information.  The sharpest of the sharp bettors make consistent profit during football season.  Do they look at our recommendations?  Okay, Billy, if you are reading this, please let us know.

July 16, 2015

2015 Football Season Returns Soon

Filed under: 1 — Tags: , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:31 am

Welcome back football fans.  The PiRates are back at it working late nights compiling the 2015-16 college and NFL ratings.

Look for the new season to kick off in Mid-August, when we begin previewing each of the FBS conferences, one at a time, beginning with the lowest rated conference and ending with the highest rated conference.  Gee, can you guess which conference might be the tops?  Hint:  A current Big Ten coach once said that the three toughest leagues in American Football were the NFC, the AFC, and this conference.

It will come as no surprise which individual team is number one in the preseason, and it also will not be all that surprising when they debut with the highest preseason PiRate Rating since Nebraska began the 1995 season.  Hint:  Their third best quarterback might be a top Heisman Trophy contender if he played at any of the other 24 teams in the Top 25.

The NFL Ratings will appear after the final college conference preview, and this will lead up to the first week’s college schedule.

The Ratings and spreads each week will be available from our website at http://www.piratings.webs.com.  This blog site will add extras, and if we can ever get the tabular format to align properly here, we will post the ratings and spreads here as well.

Enjoy the remainder of your summer, and remember to come back to this blog in Mid-August for our first conference preview.

November 26, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–November 28-December 2, 2013

The Division & Wildcard Races

NFC East: It is now a two-team race between Dallas and Philadelphia with the Giants and Redskins falling back out of the race.  Both teams have three home games remaining, but the important Week 17 game between the two rivals takes place at Cowboys Stadium.  This week, we favor Dallas to edge the Eagles out, and we do not project the Eagles to get in as a wildcard.

 

NFC North: Mediocrity has set in with the loss of two starting quarterbacks.  Aaron Rodgers is worth about 10-13 points per game, and his loss has turned the Packers into a poor team.  Matt Flynn is an improvement over Scott Tolzien, but the Packers will not get their star back until Week 14, by which time Green Bay could be 5-6-1 and 1 ½ games behind Detroit and possibly Chicago.  We believe that the Bears and Lions might both finish 9-7, so Rodgers would have to lead the Packers to four consecutive wins when he returns.  The Rodgers of December 8 will not be the Rodgers of September 8, and we believe the division race will be decided in Week 15 and Week 16.  In Week 15, Chicago plays at Cleveland and Detroit hosts Baltimore.  The following week, Chicago plays at Philadelphia, and Detroit hosts the Giants.  We favor Detroit by a tiny edge this week.

 

NFC South: Short of a collapse, Carolina will secure the number 5 seed with the first wildcard, while New Orleans will earn the number two seed and host a divisional round playoff game.  Or, it could be the other way around, since the two hot teams have yet to face off this season.  We believe the Saints will hold onto the two-game edge.  This week could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, as New Orleans goes to Seattle on Monday Night Football.  New Orleans does have an incredibly tough December with three road games against teams with a combined 23-10 record as well as Carolina at home.

 

NFC West:  Seattle should secure home field advantage through the Conference Championship Game.  The Seahawks host the Saints this week and follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco.  At worst, if they lose both games, they should still finish 13-3.  The 49ers and Cardinals are the top two competitors for the sixth and final playoff spot.  The two square off in Phoenix in Week 17, but we believe that San Francisco will have clinched the wildcard bid before that game.  The 49ers have a schedule advantage for the next four weeks with three home games, while Arizona has three road games in the next four weeks.

 

AFC East: It is now safe to write New England’s name in ink as the official AFC East Champion.  With a three game lead against mediocre opposition, there is no chance that the Patriots will miss out on the playoffs.  A possible 12-4 record should earn the Pats a Divisional Round home game and first round bye.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are all within one game of the final wildcard spot, but we do not like any of the trio’s chances.  Miami and the Jets have serious problems and appear to be heading to valleys.  Buffalo could pass both and finish in 2nd place with a 7-9 record.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati is vulnerable here.  The Bengals are not a complete team.  They are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but the real reason is that some opponents can exploit their weaknesses, while others cannot.  What is left on their schedule?  Four teams capable of exploiting their weaknesses.  A 2-3 finish is quite possible, which would send the Bengals to a 9-7 record.  It should still be enough to win the division, but the Ravens and Steelers are both capable of finishing 9-7 as well.  Thursday night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh game at M&T Bank Stadium will leave one of the rivals at 6-6 with an excellent chance to go 3-1 down the stretch.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis is much like Cincinnati, except the Colts are even more vulnerable to teams that have superb passing quarterbacks.  Still, the rest of this league is weaker than the three weaker AFC East teams.  At worst, the Colts will falter to finish 10-6, and that will win this league by two to four games.  Tennessee is the technical number six team as of this week, but the Titans’ next two games are on the road against Indianapolis and Denver, which will send them to a 5-8 record with three to play.  The last wildcard spot will go to a 9-7 team.

 

AFC West: The race has gotten a little interesting.  Peyton Manning once again proved his inability to play in cold weather.  The Broncos covered for him in the first half with the defense scoring or setting up the scores, but Manning had one of his poorest performances in a Broncos’ uniform.  Kansas City’s once stellar defense has been picked apart in successive weeks by division rivals.  Still, the Chiefs need only win one more game to wrap up a wildcard bid.  San Diego is the 5-6 team with the overall best chance to finish 9-7.  Phillip Rivers has seen his career resurrected with Coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt present.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

100.6

101.9

100.4

Philadelphia Eagles

98.9

100.1

99.2

New York Giants

96.3

96.1

95.5

Washington Redskins

95.0

95.0

94.7

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Chicago Bears

100.5

100.2

99.9

Detroit Lions

99.9

100.3

99.8

Green Bay Packers

98.2

97.0

97.1

Minnesota Vikings

94.6

94.0

93.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

107.8

109.2

108.7

Carolina Panthers

106.1

106.4

106.7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

97.3

97.1

97.4

Atlanta Falcons

94.8

94.0

93.8

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

110.1

110.8

110.6

Seattle Seahawks

107.6

107.6

107.8

Arizona Cardinals

100.9

102.2

101.5

St. Louis Rams

100.8

101.6

101.3

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

106.6

104.9

106.9

Miami Dolphins

98.6

98.3

98.9

Buffalo Bills

97.5

96.6

97.5

New York Jets

93.0

91.3

92.7

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.3

106.2

106.4

Baltimore Ravens

102.8

102.4

102.9

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.6

99.6

100.0

Cleveland Browns

95.8

95.5

95.4

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

100.6

100.7

100.7

Tennessee Titans

98.0

98.1

98.2

Houston Texans

95.2

94.5

95.1

Jacksonville Jaguars

88.8

88.5

88.5

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.6

110.9

111.0

Kansas City Chiefs

102.3

103.7

102.7

San Diego Chargers

101.3

101.9

101.2

Oakland Raiders

93.6

93.4

93.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Detroit Green Bay

4.2

5.8

5.2

Dallas Oakland

10.0

11.5

9.7

Baltimore Pittsburgh

5.7

5.3

5.4

Carolina Tampa Bay

11.3

11.8

11.8

Cleveland Jacksonville

10.0

10.0

9.9

Indianapolis Tennessee

6.3

6.6

6.3

Kansas City Denver

-5.3

-4.2

-5.3

Minnesota Chicago

-3.4

-3.7

-3.6

N Y Jets Miami

-2.6

-4.0

-3.2

Philadelphia Arizona

1.5

1.4

1.2

Buffalo (@ Toronto) Atlanta

4.2

4.1

5.2

San Francisco St. Louis

12.3

12.2

12.3

Houston New England

-8.4

-7.4

-8.8

San Diego Cincinnati

-2.0

-1.3

-2.2

Washington N Y Giants

1.2

1.4

1.7

Seattle New Orleans

2.8

1.4

2.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Dallas

4. Detroit

5. Carolina

6. San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

San Diego over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

San Francisco over Dallas

Carolina over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over San Diego

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

Seattle over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Seattle over Kansas City

November 19, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 19-23, 2013

Many Interesting Possible Trap Games This Week

As the season rounds the backstretch and heads for the wire, this week starts the trend of multiple trap games due to many factors.

 

Many teams have experienced a disappointment by not meeting expectations, yet they are bowl-eligible.  A team that is a disappointing 6-4 or 7-3 at this point will not get up to play its best.

 

As a counter to that, there are some teams that have stayed mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, when they were not expected to challenge for a .500 record.  Improving teams that are 4-6, 4-5, or 5-5 can be very dangerous, knowing that they can still get into a bowl.

 

Many teams enjoy an off week before a vital or rivalry game, while their opponent had to play the previous week.  Watch out for those teams coming off byes.  Any decent FBS coaching staff can discover and adjust a lot more when given an extra five to seven days to prepare.  Add rest to the banged up players, and this team plays its best games in this situation.

 

There is another factor.  Some teams began the year needing some added experience to reach their peak, and they are reaching their peak about now.  Other teams began with loads of experience and peaked in September.  They are sliding now, ripe for an upset loss.

 

Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities this week.

 

Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo qualifies as one of those teams that is peaking at the right time.  The Rockets have the talent and teamwork to end the Huskies’ BCS Bowl chances.  Look for an exciting, high scoring game, and Toledo has a 50-50 chance of pulling off the upset.

 

Navy at San Jose St: Navy is bowl eligible at 6-4; the Midshipmen are going to the Armed Forces Bowl regardless of the outcome of this game.  They are already looking forward to the Army game.  San Jose St. is 5-5 and needs one win in the last two to become bowl-eligible.  The other game is against Fresno St., so the Spartan players probably realize this is the game they must win.  Expect SJSU to bring their A-game, while Navy does not function on all cylinders.

 

USC at Colorado: On paper, this should be a major blowout.  However, Colorado is now in line for a bowl game if the Buffaloes can upset USC and win at Utah.  They would have to receive a waiver due to beating two FCS teams, but they had extenuating circumstances when they added Charleston Southern to the schedule after losing a game to the September flood in Boulder.  USC is due to bounce after the big upset win over Stanford.  While the Trojans should win, the margin could be a bunch less than expected.

 

Michigan St. at Northwestern: Northwestern was 4-0 when they took Ohio St. to the final minute of the game before losing.  The Wildcats have now lost six straight and must win their final two games to get back to a bowl.  With a weak Illinois team waiting, NU must pull off the big upset to finish 6-6.  Michigan St. can lose out and still make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.  The only way the Spartans can miss out now is to lose this game and to Minnesota, while Minnesota upsets Wisconsin.  In other words, the Spartans are already thinking about Ohio St.  Look for NU to cover the spread, and if MSU is really flat, watch out.

 

Oklahoma at Kansas St.: This game qualifies under two factors.  Oklahoma has been a disappointment and is looking forward to the rivalry game at Oklahoma St.  Kansas St. is peaking at the right time, and the Wildcats have a chance to move past the Sooners in the Big 12 standings.  KSU should be sky high for this game, while OU acts like they’d rather be taking a nap.

 

Memphis at Louisville: You might think this is a joke.  We don’t concur.  Memphis is 3-6 with games to be played against Temple and UConn.  It is reasonable to expect that the Tigers can win both games.  They need this upset win to make the final two meaningful.  Additionally, Memphis would like to show UL that this is still a fierce rivalry.  As for the Cardinals, they meet two of our qualifications.  This season is now a disappointment (they expected to go 12-0), and they peaked weeks ago.  UL is primed for one more loss before the bowls.

 

Michigan at Iowa: Michigan peaked earlier in the season, and now the Wolverines are treading water trying not to go under.  Ohio St. looms two weeks ahead.  Iowa had a week off, and the Hawkeyes are still improving.  Look for the black and gold to play with more effort than the maize and blue.

 

Wisconsin at Minnesota: Consider this one a cousin to our theories.  Wisconsin has not peaked, and this is a key rivalry game that they want to win.  The Badgers still have a shot at an at-large BCS Bowl berth.  Minnesota has even more to play for.  If they upset Wisconsin and Michigan St. loses to Northwestern, the Gophers will play Sparty for the Legends Division title the following week.  The Gophers are peaking in November, so this game should be one of the most entertaining rivalry games this year.  Paul Bunyan’s axe may stay in Madison, but we think this game will be close.

 

Utah at Washington St.: This is a tossup game to begin with, but Utah has more to play for.  The Cougars believe they can topple their arch-rival Huskies in the Apple Cup game on Black Friday, and they might be taking a peak forward.  Utah is perhaps the best 4-6 team in the nation, and the Utes must win out to go bowling.

 

Vanderbilt at Tennessee: Tennessee has three things going for it in this game.  The Volunteers were not expected to play above .500 in Butch Jones’ first year on the hill.  However, wins in this game and at Kentucky next week will send the Orange to Memphis and the Liberty Bowl.  Tennessee had a week off while Vanderbilt played a tough game against Kentucky.  Now, add the revenge factor after Vandy put the biggest embarrassment on the UT football program since the Vols lost to Chattanooga decades ago, and even though the black and gold looks to be 14-20 points more talented, we believe this game will be decided in the final minutes.

 

For The Third Time Ever

It happened in 1974 and again in 1983, and for just the third time, it happens again this weekend.  Florida St. is a 70+ point PiRate Rating favorite against Idaho.

 

We do not have the records for 1969 through 1988, but we do have our memories.  In September of 1974, Oklahoma was a 70-something point favorite over Wake Forest.  What we do remember is that the Deacons came into that game not having won in their previous 13, while Oklahoma had not lost in their previous 20.  We think the actual spread was 74 points (we did not have decimals in those days, just whole numbers).  The Sooners won that game 72-3.

 

In 1983, Nebraska played Minnesota as a 71-point favorite in our ratings.  In the early 1980’s, we actually predicted scores, and our prediction for that game was 77-6.  The actual final was 84-13, an exact 71-point margin.

 

We missed on several 70-point wins in the past.  When Houston almost hung 100 on SMU and won 95-21 back in the late 1980’s, we had the Cougars favored by 59.  We did not rate teams in 1968, but this is the weekend anniversary of Houston’s 100-6 win over Tulsa in 1968.  Florida St. could score 100 points in this game, but they will not do so.  Expect the starters to come out as early as the start of the second quarter.  The Seminoles could lead 42-0 after one quarter and 56-0 by halftime, but Jimbo Fisher will not allow his team to score 44 more points, even though FSU could score 112 points in this game (4 TDs per quarter).

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

136.5

2

Florida St.

136.2

3

Oregon

133.1

4

Baylor

130.7

5

Ohio St.

128.5

6

Stanford

126.0

7

Oklahoma St.

124.0

8

Arizona St.

124.0

9

Missouri

123.8

10

Wisconsin

123.6

11

L S U

122.6

12

Clemson

121.5

13

Texas A&M

121.5

14

Michigan St.

120.4

15

Washington

119.7

16

Ole Miss

119.3

17

U S C

119.1

18

U C L A

119.1

19

Auburn

119.1

20

South Carolina

119.1

21

Texas

115.8

22

Oklahoma

115.8

23

Oregon St.

115.4

24

Georgia

115.0

25

B Y U

114.9

26

Louisville

114.4

27

Kansas St.

114.0

28

Florida

112.4

29

Arizona

111.9

30

Michigan

111.8

31

Nebraska

111.5

32

Georgia Tech

110.8

33

Miami

110.8

34

Notre Dame

110.7

35

Utah

110.3

36

Northwestern

108.5

37

Vanderbilt

108.2

38

Mississippi St.

108.2

39

Texas Tech

107.5

40

Cincinnati

107.4

41

North Carolina

107.3

42

Virginia Tech

107.3

43

Iowa

106.8

44

Fresno St.

106.7

45

T C U

106.7

46

Central Florida

106.6

47

East Carolina

106.5

48

Minnesota

106.4

49

Duke

105.2

50

Boise St.

105.2

51

Utah St.

105.1

52

Northern Illinois

104.8

53

Penn St.

104.4

54

Bowling Green

104.4

55

Washington St.

104.0

56

Houston

102.7

57

Tennessee

102.2

58

Boston College

101.7

59

Indiana

101.7

60

Toledo

101.5

61

West Virginia

101.0

62

Marshall

100.7

63

Pittsburgh

100.4

64

Ball St.

100.0

65

North Texas

99.7

66

Buffalo

99.7

67

Syracuse

98.9

68

Rice

98.3

69

Wake Forest

98.3

70

Kentucky

98.2

71

Maryland

97.0

72

Illinois

96.9

73

Navy

96.8

74

Colorado St.

96.3

75

Arkansas

95.9

76

San Jose St.

95.8

77

S M U

95.1

78

San Diego St.

93.7

79

Kansas

93.5

80

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.3

81

Arkansas St.

93.2

82

Rutgers

93.1

83

Iowa St.

91.7

84

Florida Atlantic

91.2

85

Memphis

91.1

86

North Carolina St.

91.0

87

U T S A

90.4

88

Colorado

89.9

89

Western Kentucky

89.6

90

Temple

89.6

91

California

89.5

92

Virginia

89.1

93

Ohio

89.1

94

Middle Tennessee

88.4

95

Tulane

87.5

96

U N L V

87.2

97

South Florida

86.6

98

Purdue

86.6

99

Kent St.

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

Nevada

85.9

102

Tulsa

85.9

103

South Alabama

85.9

104

Wyoming

85.6

105

Connecticut

83.5

106

Troy

83.2

107

Hawaii

83.0

108

Central Michigan

82.4

109

Akron

82.2

110

Texas St.

82.1

111

Army

82.0

112

New Mexico

81.3

113

Air Force

79.3

114

Louisiana Tech

78.9

115

U T E P

78.6

116

U A B

77.5

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

72.8

119

New Mexico St.

72.7

120

Eastern Michigan

71.1

121

Miami (O)

70.5

122

Idaho

68.1

123

Florida Int’l

66.1

124

Georgia St.

64.8

125

Southern Miss.

64.6

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

140.2

2

Alabama

132.7

3

Oregon

129.6

4

Ohio St.

127.5

5

Wisconsin

124.5

6

Baylor

124.2

7

Arizona St.

123.1

8

Clemson

123.0

9

Missouri

122.0

10

Michigan St.

121.0

11

L S U

120.4

12

Texas A&M

119.3

13

Stanford

119.0

14

Auburn

118.4

15

South Carolina

116.5

16

Ole Miss

116.3

17

Oklahoma St.

116.0

18

U S C

115.8

19

Washington

115.6

20

U C L A

114.5

21

B Y U

113.7

22

Louisville

113.5

23

Georgia

112.8

24

Miami

111.8

25

Michigan

111.8

26

Oklahoma

110.9

27

Georgia Tech

110.1

28

Nebraska

109.9

29

Houston

109.8

30

Central Florida

109.7

31

Florida

109.5

32

North Carolina

108.8

33

Notre Dame

108.6

34

East Carolina

108.5

35

Arizona

108.3

36

Virginia Tech

108.1

37

Utah

108.1

38

Oregon St.

108.0

39

Cincinnati

107.6

40

Texas

107.5

41

Northern Illinois

107.4

42

Kansas St.

106.8

43

Duke

106.6

44

Minnesota

106.6

45

Vanderbilt

106.5

46

Fresno St.

106.4

47

Northwestern

106.1

48

Iowa

106.0

49

Mississippi St.

105.8

50

Bowling Green

105.3

51

Penn St.

105.0

52

Marshall

104.1

53

Toledo

103.7

54

Indiana

103.4

55

Ball St.

103.3

56

Utah St.

103.3

57

Washington St.

103.1

58

Boston College

102.8

59

Texas Tech

102.6

60

North Texas

102.4

61

Boise St.

101.9

62

Buffalo

101.8

63

Rice

101.1

64

T C U

101.1

65

Tennessee

101.1

66

Wake Forest

101.1

67

Maryland

100.2

68

Pittsburgh

99.8

69

Syracuse

98.9

70

Illinois

98.7

71

Navy

98.6

72

Arkansas

98.3

73

Kentucky

97.0

74

S M U

96.6

75

Colorado St.

96.3

76

Rutgers

95.8

77

Memphis

95.8

78

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.0

79

North Carolina St.

94.4

80

West Virginia

94.2

81

San Jose St.

93.4

82

Middle Tennessee

93.2

83

San Diego St.

92.7

84

Arkansas St.

92.5

85

Ohio

92.4

86

U T S A

92.4

87

Western Kentucky

91.9

88

Florida Atlantic

91.7

89

Temple

91.2

90

Tulane

90.9

91

Virginia

90.8

92

Colorado

90.2

93

Kansas

89.2

94

Kent St.

89.1

95

U N L V

88.8

96

South Alabama

88.7

97

Nevada

87.5

98

Army

87.5

99

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

100

Wyoming

86.7

101

Texas St.

86.6

102

Akron

85.9

103

Troy

85.8

104

California

85.7

105

Tulsa

85.2

106

New Mexico

85.0

107

Central Michigan

84.7

108

Purdue

84.3

109

South Florida

84.0

110

Iowa St.

83.7

111

Hawaii

83.2

112

Air Force

82.7

113

Louisiana Tech

81.0

114

U T E P

80.7

115

Connecticut

80.0

116

U A B

78.4

117

Massachusetts

77.8

118

Western Michigan

77.5

119

New Mexico St.

75.8

120

Eastern Michigan

73.7

121

Miami (O)

73.5

122

Idaho

72.0

123

Georgia St.

70.5

124

Florida Int’l

68.1

125

Southern Miss.

64.6

 

PiRate Bias

1

Florida St.

138.1

2

Alabama

137.2

3

Oregon

133.7

4

Baylor

132.8

5

Ohio St.

128.7

6

Stanford

125.4

7

Wisconsin

124.8

8

Oklahoma St.

124.3

9

Arizona St.

123.6

10

Missouri

123.2

11

L S U

123.1

12

Clemson

123.0

13

Texas A&M

121.3

14

Michigan St.

120.0

15

Auburn

119.2

16

U S C

119.1

17

Washington

119.1

18

Ole Miss

118.6

19

U C L A

118.1

20

South Carolina

118.0

21

B Y U

115.9

22

Oklahoma

115.3

23

Louisville

114.9

24

Georgia

114.5

25

Texas

114.4

26

Oregon St.

113.7

27

Kansas St.

113.2

28

Florida

111.2

29

Miami

110.8

30

Michigan

110.8

31

Georgia Tech

110.5

32

Utah

110.4

33

Nebraska

110.3

34

Arizona

110.1

35

Notre Dame

109.0

36

Mississippi St.

108.6

37

North Carolina

108.4

38

Northwestern

108.3

39

Vanderbilt

108.0

40

Central Florida

107.7

41

East Carolina

107.3

42

Cincinnati

107.2

43

Iowa

107.1

44

Virginia Tech

106.9

45

Texas Tech

106.7

46

Boise St.

106.6

47

Utah St.

106.6

48

Minnesota

106.4

49

Fresno St.

106.3

50

T C U

106.2

51

Northern Illinois

105.8

52

Bowling Green

105.2

53

Duke

104.8

54

Washington St.

104.8

55

Houston

104.3

56

Penn St.

103.3

57

Boston College

102.9

58

Toledo

102.7

59

Marshall

102.1

60

Indiana

101.2

61

Buffalo

101.1

62

Tennessee

101.1

63

North Texas

100.9

64

Ball St.

100.8

65

Pittsburgh

100.3

66

West Virginia

100.0

67

Rice

99.0

68

Wake Forest

98.8

69

Syracuse

98.4

70

Kentucky

98.4

71

Maryland

98.2

72

Navy

97.2

73

Colorado St.

97.2

74

Illinois

96.4

75

San Jose St.

96.2

76

Arkansas

94.7

77

S M U

94.6

78

San Diego St.

94.2

79

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.6

80

Arkansas St.

93.3

81

Kansas

93.1

82

Rutgers

93.0

83

Florida Atlantic

92.3

84

Memphis

91.8

85

North Carolina St.

91.4

86

Iowa St.

90.3

87

U T S A

90.2

88

Western Kentucky

89.7

89

Middle Tennessee

89.4

90

Ohio

89.4

91

Temple

89.4

92

Virginia

89.1

93

Colorado

88.4

94

Tulane

87.9

95

U N L V

87.8

96

California

87.5

97

Kent St.

86.5

98

Wyoming

86.3

99

South Alabama

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

South Florida

86.1

102

Nevada

85.9

103

Tulsa

84.8

104

Troy

84.2

105

Purdue

84.1

106

Hawaii

83.6

107

Army

83.4

108

Connecticut

82.9

109

Akron

82.6

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Central Michigan

82.0

112

New Mexico

81.9

113

Air Force

79.1

114

Louisiana Tech

78.2

115

U T E P

78.0

116

U A B

76.4

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

72.9

119

New Mexico St.

72.6

120

Eastern Michigan

70.0

121

Miami (O)

69.1

122

Idaho

67.9

123

Georgia St.

66.1

124

Florida Int’l

65.5

125

Southern Miss.

63.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

5-1

9-1

114.4

113.5

114.9

Cincinnati

5-1

8-2

107.4

107.6

107.2

Central Florida

5-0

8-1

106.6

109.7

107.7

Houston

4-2

7-3

102.7

109.8

104.3

S M U

3-2

4-5

95.1

96.6

94.6

Rutgers

2-3

5-4

93.1

95.8

93.0

Memphis

1-4

3-6

91.1

95.8

91.8

Temple

0-6

1-9

89.6

91.2

89.4

South Florida

2-3

2-7

86.6

84.0

86.1

Connecticut

0-5

0-9

83.5

80.0

82.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

97.0

98.4

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

8-0

10-0

136.2

140.2

138.1

Clemson

7-1

9-1

121.5

123.0

123.0

Boston College

3-3

6-4

101.7

102.8

102.9

Syracuse

3-3

5-5

98.9

98.9

98.4

Wake Forest

2-5

4-6

98.3

101.1

98.8

Maryland

2-4

6-4

97.0

100.2

98.2

North Carolina St.

0-7

3-7

91.0

94.4

91.4

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

5-3

6-4

110.8

110.1

110.5

Miami

3-3

7-3

110.8

111.8

110.8

North Carolina

4-3

5-5

107.3

108.8

108.4

Virginia Tech

4-3

7-4

107.3

108.1

106.9

Duke

4-2

8-2

105.2

106.6

104.8

Pittsburgh

2-4

5-5

100.4

99.8

100.3

Virginia

0-6

2-8

89.1

90.8

89.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.4

106.9

105.8

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

6-0

9-0

130.7

124.2

132.8

Oklahoma St.

6-1

9-1

124.0

116.0

124.3

Texas

6-1

7-3

115.8

107.5

114.4

Oklahoma

5-2

8-2

115.8

110.9

115.3

Kansas St.

4-3

6-4

114.0

106.8

113.2

Texas Tech

4-4

7-4

107.5

102.6

106.7

T C U

2-6

4-7

106.7

101.1

106.2

West Virginia

2-6

4-7

101.0

94.2

100.0

Kansas

1-6

3-7

93.5

89.2

93.1

Iowa St.

0-7

1-9

91.7

83.7

90.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.6

109.6

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

6-0

10-0

128.5

127.5

128.7

Wisconsin

5-1

8-2

123.6

124.5

124.8

Penn St.

3-3

6-4

104.4

105.0

103.3

Indiana

2-4

4-6

101.7

103.4

101.2

Illinois

0-6

3-7

96.9

98.7

96.4

Purdue

0-6

1-9

86.6

84.3

84.1

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

6-0

9-1

120.4

121.0

120.0

Michigan

3-3

7-3

111.8

111.8

110.8

Nebraska

4-2

7-3

111.5

109.9

110.3

Northwestern

0-6

4-6

108.5

106.1

108.3

Iowa

3-3

6-4

106.8

106.0

107.1

Minnesota

4-2

8-2

106.4

106.6

106.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.5

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

6-1

8-2

106.5

108.5

107.3

Marshall

5-1

7-3

100.7

104.1

102.1

Florida Atlantic

3-4

4-6

91.2

91.7

92.3

Middle Tennessee

4-2

6-4

88.4

93.2

89.4

U A B

1-5

2-8

77.5

78.4

76.4

Florida Int’l

1-5

1-9

66.1

68.1

65.5

Southern Miss.

0-6

0-10

64.6

64.6

63.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

5-1

7-3

99.7

102.4

100.9

Rice

5-1

7-3

98.3

101.1

99.0

U T S A

4-2

5-5

90.4

92.4

90.2

Tulane

4-2

6-4

87.5

90.9

87.9

Tulsa

1-5

2-8

85.9

85.2

84.8

Louisiana Tech

3-3

4-6

78.9

81.0

78.2

U T E P

1-5

2-8

78.6

80.7

78.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.7

88.7

86.8

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

7-3

114.9

113.7

115.9

Notre Dame

 

7-3

110.7

108.6

109.0

Navy

 

6-4

96.8

98.6

97.2

Army

 

3-7

82.0

87.5

83.4

Idaho

 

1-9

68.1

72.0

67.9

New Mexico St.

 

1-9

72.7

75.8

72.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.9

92.7

91.0

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

5-1

7-3

104.4

105.3

105.2

Buffalo

5-1

7-3

99.7

101.8

101.1

Ohio

3-3

6-4

89.1

92.4

89.4

Kent St.

2-5

3-8

86.3

89.1

86.5

Akron

3-4

4-7

82.2

85.9

82.6

Massachusetts

1-5

1-9

72.8

77.8

72.9

Miami (O)

0-6

0-10

70.5

73.5

69.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

6-0

10-0

104.8

107.4

105.8

Toledo

5-1

7-3

101.5

103.7

102.7

Ball St.

6-1

9-2

100.0

103.3

100.8

Central Michigan

3-3

4-6

82.4

84.7

82.0

Western Michigan

1-6

1-10

75.6

77.5

75.5

Eastern Michigan

1-5

2-8

71.1

73.7

70.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.7

90.5

88.0

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

5-1

7-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Utah St.

5-1

6-4

105.1

103.3

106.6

Colorado St.

4-2

6-5

96.3

96.3

97.2

Wyoming

2-4

4-6

85.6

86.7

86.3

New Mexico

1-5

3-7

81.3

85.0

81.9

Air Force

0-6

2-8

79.3

82.7

79.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

6-0

9-0

106.7

106.4

106.3

San Jose St.

4-3

5-5

95.8

93.4

96.2

San Diego St.

5-1

6-4

93.7

92.7

94.2

U N L V

3-3

5-5

87.2

88.8

87.8

Nevada

3-5

4-7

85.9

87.5

85.9

Hawaii

0-7

0-10

83.0

83.2

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.1

92.3

92.6

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

6-1

9-1

133.1

129.6

133.7

Stanford

6-2

8-2

126.0

119.0

125.4

Washington

3-4

6-4

119.7

115.6

119.1

Oregon St.

4-3

6-4

115.4

108.0

113.7

Washington St.

3-4

5-5

104.0

103.1

104.8

California

0-8

1-10

89.5

85.7

87.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

6-1

8-2

124.0

123.1

123.6

U S C

5-2

8-3

119.1

115.8

119.1

U C L A

5-2

8-2

119.1

114.5

118.1

Arizona

3-4

6-4

111.9

108.3

110.1

Utah

1-6

4-6

110.3

108.1

110.4

Colorado

1-6

4-6

89.9

90.2

88.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.5

110.1

112.8

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

5-1

9-1

123.8

122.0

123.2

South Carolina

6-2

8-2

119.1

116.5

118.0

Georgia

4-3

6-4

115.0

112.8

114.5

Florida

3-5

4-6

112.4

109.5

111.2

Vanderbilt

3-4

6-4

108.2

106.5

108.0

Tennessee

1-5

4-6

102.2

101.1

101.1

Kentucky

0-6

2-8

98.2

97.0

98.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

7-0

10-0

136.5

132.7

137.2

L S U

3-3

7-3

122.6

120.4

123.1

Texas A&M

4-2

8-2

121.5

119.3

121.3

Ole Miss

3-3

7-3

119.3

116.3

118.6

Auburn

6-1

10-1

119.1

118.4

119.2

Mississippi St.

1-5

4-6

108.2

105.8

108.6

Arkansas

0-6

3-7

95.9

98.3

94.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

5-0

8-2

93.3

95.0

93.6

Arkansas St.

4-1

6-4

93.2

92.5

93.3

Western Kentucky

2-3

6-4

89.6

91.9

89.7

Louisiana–Monroe

3-2

5-5

86.1

86.9

86.1

South Alabama

1-3

3-6

85.9

88.7

86.3

Troy

3-3

5-6

83.2

85.8

84.2

Texas St.

2-3

6-4

82.1

86.6

82.3

Georgia St.

0-5

0-10

64.8

70.5

66.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.8

87.2

85.2

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

8-3

85.7

87.2

92.0

Georgia Southern

 

6-3

82.9

85.3

90.0

Appalachian St.

 

2-8

73.4

72.3

80.1

Charlotte

 

4-6

57.2

61.8

64.3

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.8

76.7

81.6

 

This Week’s Spreads

Date:

November 19-23, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O) Buffalo

-26.7

-25.8

-29.5

Ohio Kent St.

5.3

5.8

5.4

Toledo Northern Illinois

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

Central Florida Rutgers

16.5

16.9

17.7

U A B Rice

-18.3

-20.2

-20.1

Air Force U N L V

-4.9

-3.1

-5.7

San Jose St. Navy

2.5

-1.7

2.5

Stanford California

39.0

35.8

40.4

Arizona Oregon

-18.2

-18.3

-20.6

U C L A Arizona St.

-1.9

-5.6

-2.5

Colorado U S C

-26.2

-22.6

-27.7

Northwestern Michigan St.

-8.9

-11.9

-8.7

Kansas St. Oklahoma

1.2

-1.1

0.9

Louisville Memphis

26.3

20.7

26.1

Miami (Fla) Virginia

24.7

24.0

24.7

Wake Forest Duke

-4.4

-3.0

-3.5

Houston Cincinnati

-1.7

5.2

0.1

Iowa Michigan

-2.0

-2.8

-0.7

Purdue Illinois

-7.8

-11.9

-9.8

Arkansas Mississippi St.

-9.3

-4.5

-10.9

North Carolina St. East Carolina

-13.0

-11.6

-13.4

Syracuse Pittsburgh

1.5

2.1

1.1

Central Michigan Massachusetts

12.1

9.4

11.6

Eastern Michigan Bowling Green

-30.8

-29.1

-32.7

Wyoming Hawaii

6.6

7.5

6.7

Arkansas St. Georgia St.

31.4

25.0

30.2

Florida Atlantic New Mexico St.

21.5

18.9

22.7

Florida St. Idaho

71.6

71.7

73.7

Ohio St. Indiana

29.8

27.1

30.5

L S U Texas A&M

4.1

4.1

4.8

Minnesota Wisconsin

-14.2

-14.9

-15.4

Notre Dame B Y U

-1.2

-2.1

-3.9

Maryland Boston College

-1.7

0.4

-1.7

Penn St. Nebraska

-4.1

-1.9

-4.0

North Texas U T S A

11.8

12.5

13.2

Washington St. Utah

-3.3

-3.0

-2.6

Utah St. Colorado St.

11.8

10.0

12.4

Southern Miss. Middle Tennessee

-21.8

-26.6

-23.9

Tulane U T E P

11.4

12.7

12.4

Fresno St. New Mexico

28.4

24.4

27.4

Florida Int’l Marshall

-32.1

-33.5

-34.1

Georgia Kentucky

19.8

18.8

19.1

South Alabama UL-Monroe

2.3

4.3

2.7

South Florida S M U

-5.5

-9.6

-5.5

Temple Connecticut

8.1

13.2

8.5

Texas St. Western Kentucky

-4.5

-2.3

-4.4

Louisiana Tech Tulsa

-4.0

-1.2

-3.6

Tennessee Vanderbilt

-3.0

-2.4

-3.9

Ole Miss Missouri

-1.5

-2.7

-1.6

Oklahoma St. Baylor

-3.7

-5.2

-5.5

Iowa St. Kansas

1.2

-2.5

0.2

San Diego St. Boise St.

-8.5

-6.2

-9.4

Oregon St. Washington

-1.3

-4.6

-2.4

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

U C L A

Famous Idaho Potato

Arizona *

vs.

Toledo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

San Diego St.

vs.

Rice

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Washington St. *

Military Bowl

Georgia Tech

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Michigan

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Washington

vs.

B Y U %

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Cincinnati

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Iowa

Armed Forces

U N L V

vs.

Navy %

Music City

Syracuse

vs.

Georgia

Alamo

Oklahoma

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

Arizona St.

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Buffalo *

vs.

North Carolina

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

U S C

Liberty

Tennessee

vs.

East Carolina

Chick-fil-A

Duke

vs.

Texas A&M

Heart Of Dallas

North Texas

vs.

Bowling Green *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Ole Miss

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Nebraska

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Oregon

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

L S U

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Ohio St.

vs.

Clemson

BBVA Compass Bowl

Houston

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Florida St.

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

% Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

Bowl-Eligible Teams Left Out      
Boston College

 

 

 

Central Michigan

 

 

 

Florida Atlantic

 

 

 

Ohio

 

 

 

Pittsburgh

 

 

 

Troy

 

 

 

U T S A

 

 

 

 

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