PiRate Ratings College Basketball For December 31, 2019

Spreads for Power Conference Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Florida St.	Georgia Tech	11.5
Clemson	Miami (Fla.)	2.0
Duke	Boston College	21.4
Central Florida	Temple	-2.4

 

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last week, our special money line parlays delivered mixed results.  If you chose to play Duke and Baylor in your upset parlay, you enjoyed a nice bonanza.  If you added or chose Kansas State or Indiana, then your imaginary investment was shredded.

We did not issue any money line parlay picks in our regular weekly picks yesterday.  We decided to save them for this post.  We just want to stress that these selections are totally off the wall long shots at odds of better than +150.  In other words, they are not likely to win, even though they always look handsome on paper.

We have chosen three college parlays and one NFL parlay this week.  Take a look.

 

Money Line Parlay #1  Odds: +160

San Diego State over Colorado State

UAB over Rice

Texas over West Virginia

Miami (Fla.) over Virginia Tech

 

 

Money Line Parlay #2  Odds: +162

Auburn over Florida

North Carolina over Georgia Tech

Maryland over Rutgers

 

 

Money Line Parlay #3  Odds: +198

Colorado over Arizona

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan

Oklahoma State over Texas Tech

 

 

Money Line Parlay #4  Odds: +230

Chicago over Oakland

New Orleans over Tampa Bay

LA Chargers over Denver

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 2: September 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Carolina	Tampa Bay	11.3	7.1	7.4
Atlanta	Philadelphia	-4.5	-0.7	-1.1
Baltimore	Arizona	10.9	9.9	10.5
Cincinnati	San Francisco	5.0	2.7	3.6
Denver	Chicago	-3.1	1.8	1.5
Detroit	LA Chargers	-2.5	-4.8	-2.5
Green Bay	Minnesota	-1.9	0.8	0.7
Houston	Jacksonville	9.0	8.7	8.2
LA Rams	New Orleans	-0.4	1.7	1.6
Miami	New England	-13.2	-14.3	-13.3
N.Y. Giants	Buffalo	1.4	0.6	2.6
Oakland	Kansas City	-5.4	-6.1	-4.8
Pittsburgh	Seattle	0.4	0.6	1.2
Tennessee	Indianapolis	7.3	7.0	8.0
Washington	Dallas	-4.0	-2.5	-1.7
N.Y. Jets	Cleveland	1.5	2.6	1.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitors	Totals
Carolina	Tampa Bay	51
Atlanta	Philadelphia	49
Baltimore	Arizona	44
Cincinnati	San Francisco	50
Denver	Chicago	42
Detroit	LA Chargers	45
Green Bay	Minnesota	46
Houston	Jacksonville	43
LA Rams	New Orleans	54
Miami	New England	49
N.Y. Giants	Buffalo	44
Oakland	Kansas City	54.5
Pittsburgh	Seattle	48
Tennessee	Indianapolis	42.5
Washington	Dallas	41
N.Y. Jets	Cleveland	47.5

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.5	106.6	105.5	105.9	23	1-0
N. Y. Jets	96.8	98.4	97.1	97.4	23.5	0-1
Buffalo	95.9	97.3	96.2	96.5	19.5	1-0
Miami	89.9	89.8	89.7	89.8	26	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	102.2	101.7	103.0	102.3	22	1-0
Cincinnati	99.3	98.8	99.8	99.3	25.5	0-1
Pittsburgh	98.7	98.9	99.3	98.9	24	0-1
Cleveland	98.4	98.7	98.8	98.6	24	0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.6	102.7	102.3	102.6	23	0-1
Tennessee	101.1	101.5	101.8	101.5	19.5	1-0
Indianapolis	96.8	97.6	96.8	97.1	23	0-1
Jacksonville	96.1	96.6	96.6	96.4	20	0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	105.1	106.0	105.4	105.5	31	1-0
LA Chargers	103.7	104.4	103.4	103.8	23.5	1-0
Denver	99.4	99.7	99.5	99.5	21	0-1
Oakland	96.7	96.9	97.6	97.1	23.5	1-0
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.3	103.5	103.3	104.3	23	1-0
Dallas	102.3	103.1	102.4	102.6	20.5	1-0
Washington	95.4	97.6	97.7	96.9	20.5	0-1
N.Y. Giants	95.3	95.8	96.8	96.0	24.5	0-1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	104.8	102.5	102.6	103.3	22	1-0
Chicago	105.5	100.9	101.0	102.5	21	0-1
Green Bay	100.4	100.8	100.8	100.7	24	1-0
Detroit	98.1	96.6	97.8	97.5	21.5	0-0-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	110.5	106.2	106.4	107.7	27	1-0
Carolina	100.8	100.2	100.9	100.6	24	0-1
Atlanta	98.8	99.8	99.2	99.2	26	0-1
Tampa Bay	92.0	95.6	96.0	94.5	27	0-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.1	104.9	105.0	105.7	27	1-0
Seattle	101.8	101.8	101.6	101.7	24	1-0
San Francisco	97.8	99.7	99.7	99.1	24.5	1-0
Arizona	94.9	95.3	96.0	95.4	22	0-0-1

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Baltimore
4	Tennessee
5	LA Chargers
6	Houston
NFC Seeding
1	LA Rams
2	Dallas
3	Minnesota
4	New Orleans
5	Philadelphia
6	Green Bay

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Baltimore

LA Chargers over Tennessee

Minnesota over Green Bay

Philadelphia over New Orleans

Divisional Round

New England over Houston

LA Chargers over Kansas City

LA Rams over Philadelphia

Dallas over Minnesota

Conference Championship

New England over LA Chargers

Dallas over LA Rams

Super Bowl 53

Dallas over New England

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For August 24, 2019

Welcome to the debut of the 2019 PiRate Ratings Picks.  During the football season, we will issue our pretend financial advice for you to read as entertainment purposes only and not to wager real money on games.

We pretend to make $100 wagers on whatever it is we select.  In the past, we have done this with money line parlays, teasers, straight wagers, and regular spread parlays.  Through the years, we have discovered our most successful style of wagering has been playing money line parlays.  At one time, we were successful teasing the totals lines.  13-point, 4-game parlays of teaser totals gave us an incredible hot streak one season when the standard deviation of scores was much lower than normal.

In this decade, there has been higher standard deviation in NFL scores, because the new rule moving extra points back 15 yards has created instability in game scores.

Many years ago, we had a rather impressive result playing the middle in games, but that was when we had permission to release the “outlaw” line before the official opening line.  Without the ability to see the Outlaw line and then the opening line, it was impossible to try to guess which games would see a large enough swing to go with both sides.

Since there are only two games this week, both college games, there is no real play that can be issued with our strategy.  If you take both favorites this week, Florida over Miami and Arizona over Hawaii, the best money line parlay odds you can get today is .6941, which means you would win $169.41 if you bet $100 and the two favorites won.  That means you would get your $100 investment back with $69.41 in profits.  Our philosophy is to only play parlays with odds of +120 or better, meaning you would receive $220  or more on a $100 wager.

In order to play a parlay with better than +120 odds this week, we would have to pick Hawaii or Miami to win outright.  If we selected Florida to beat Miami and Hawaii to upset Arizona, the parlay odds would be around +500 at this very moment.  That means, we would win $600 on a $100 wager if Florida and Hawaii won.

Alas, we are only confident this week of one outcome, that Florida will indeed beat Miami.  The actual point spread is right where we believe it should be, so playing the line is out of the question.

The best Money Line spread available to us at midday Thursday is -290, which means if we wager $100 on this game, if Florida won, we’d get a tiny $34.48 profit.  The reward is too small for the risk.

The totals for these two games do not give us a chance to come up with a playable parlay either, so for Week 0, we are not issuing any official picks.  We prefer to pick our spots and play only games that we are confident in occasionally winning.  If we play Money Line parlays with odds of +120 or better, we can win a smaller percentage of games and still turn a profit.

Let’s say we play 50 games this year with an average parlay odd of +180  Let’s say we get lucky and win 20.  Here’s how that would affect our imaginary bank account.

50 wagers of $100 each = $5,000 investment

20 Wins at +180 = $3,600 in winnings

30 Losses at +180 = $3,000 in losses

$600 profit at the end of the 50 wagers

12% Return on Investment

This 12% would take place in roughly 4 months, so the annualized Return on Investment would be 36%.  Not many investments return 36% in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub: how likely is it that we can win 40% of our Money Line wagers at +180 odds?  The answer at the present time is one year in four, or to re-phrase it, four years ago.  The only solace is that the most recent three years brought imaginary profits as well, just nothing close to an annualized return of 36%.  Our 2018 season profit was so small it is not worth mentioning.  It was better in 2017 and much better in 2016, so the four year trend has been going in the wrong direction.

Ah, but here’s the other rub: We invested imaginary funds in all the years we have issued our selections.  Being 100% accurate and being 0% accurate brings the same outcome on zero real dollars invested.

Last year, we welcomed five of our long time friends to participate in a contest selecting winners against the spread.  It was a close contest all year, and as a group the five turned a small profit.  This year, we are going to have a guest computer program try to pick winners.  We decided to call this program “Davey 19.”  Davey is named for a former quarterback at TCU and for a short time with the Philadelphia Eagles.  Davey was only 5 foot 7 inches tall, but he had the heart of a giant and the fundamentals of a robot, so that’s why we are calling our guest computer program Davey 19 this year.

We will give Davey an identical rule–to make investments in imaginary $100 wagers.  Davey can make any type of selection in college and the NFL.  Davey does have one selection this week.

 

PiRate Picks For August 24, 2019

None   (not enough games for a playable parlay)

 

Davey 19 Selection For August 24, 2019

Hawaii +11 vs. Arizona

 

We do feel like Florida has a better than 60% chance to beat Miami, but the Money Line odd is too low to make enough profit to limit risk.

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 13-17, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Kansas City	L.A. Chargers	6.3	5.8	5.7	54
N.Y. Jets	Houston	-4.7	-5.2	-5.7	48
Denver	Cleveland	6.0	5.7	5.2	44.5
Chicago	Green Bay	7.8	7.5	8.9	47.5
Minnesota	Miami	9.5	9.7	9.1	43.5
Buffalo	Detroit	-4.2	-4.2	-4.1	42
Baltimore	Tampa Bay	10.5	10.9	10.1	46.5
Atlanta	Arizona	7.7	7.9	7.6	43.5
Cincinnati	Oakland	5.2	5.2	4.9	45
N.Y. Giants	Tennessee	4.2	4.3	4.9	43
Jacksonville	Washington	6.2	6.3	6.0	41.5
Indianapolis	Dallas	2.4	1.5	3.0	45.5
San Francisco	Seattle	-7.1	-7.4	-8.3	44.5
Pittsburgh	New England	4.0	3.8	3.7	47.5
L.A. Rams	Philadelphia	9.5	9.8	9.7	51
Carolina	New Orleans	-9.9	-10.5	-10.4	51.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.6	105.9	105.8	105.8	23	9-4
Miami	95.3	95.1	95.3	95.2	23	7-6
N. Y. Jets	95.0	94.5	94.6	94.7	24	4-9
Buffalo	92.5	92.4	92.2	92.3	18	4-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	106.6	106.7	106.5	106.6	24.5	7-5-1
Baltimore	103.5	103.9	103.7	103.7	21	7-6
Cleveland	97.2	97.5	98.0	97.6	24.5	5-7-1
Cincinnati	94.6	94.7	94.2	94.5	23.5	5-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.2	102.3	102.8	102.4	24	9-4
Indianapolis	101.2	100.4	101.4	101.0	25.5	7-6
Tennessee	97.4	97.4	97.1	97.3	20	7-6
Jacksonville	97.5	97.1	97.1	97.2	19	4-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.6	107.8	107.5	107.6	30	11-2
LA Chargers	104.2	105.0	104.8	104.7	24	10-3
Denver	100.3	100.2	100.2	100.2	20	6-7
Oakland	91.8	92.0	91.9	91.9	21.5	3-10
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	101.8	101.8	101.4	101.7	20	8-5
Philadelphia	100.8	100.9	100.7	100.8	22.5	6-7
N.Y. Giants	98.6	98.7	99.0	98.8	23	5-8
Washington	93.9	93.2	93.6	93.6	22.5	6-7
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Chicago	105.0	105.2	106.0	105.4	23	9-4
Minnesota	101.8	101.7	101.4	101.6	20.5	6-6-1
Green Bay	99.8	100.2	99.6	99.8	24.5	5-7-1
Detroit	99.2	99.1	98.8	99.0	24	5-8
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	112.8	112.9	113.1	112.9	27	11-2
Carolina	100.4	99.9	100.1	100.1	24.5	6-7
Atlanta	98.5	98.2	97.9	98.2	25.5	4-9
Tampa Bay	95.9	96.0	96.6	96.2	25.5	5-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.4	107.7	107.4	107.5	28.5	11-2
Seattle	104.8	105.0	105.6	105.1	22.5	8-5
San Francisco	94.7	94.6	94.3	94.5	22	3-10
Arizona	93.8	93.3	93.3	93.5	18	2-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	Houston
3	New England
4	Pittsburgh
5	L.A. Chargers
6	Miami

 

NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	L.A. Rams
3	Chicago
4	Dallas
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

New England over Miami

L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh

Chicago over Minnesota

Dallas over Seattle

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over L.A. Chargers

Houston over New England

New Orleans over Dallas

L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Houston

L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53

Kansas City over L.A. Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: September 27-October 1, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
L.A. Rams	Minnesota	9.8	11.1	11.1	45
Jacksonville	N.Y. Jets	6.8	6.8	7.0	44
New England	Miami	6.2	7.3	5.4	42
Tennessee	Philadelphia	-0.6	-0.4	-0.2	43
Indianapolis	Houston	-0.1	-1.6	0.5	46
Green Bay	Buffalo	7.8	8.7	7.5	41.5
Dallas	Detroit	2.1	2.1	1.5	45
Chicago	Tampa Bay	4.1	4.0	4.3	41.5
Atlanta	Cincinnati	7.4	6.5	7.4	44.5
Arizona	Seattle	-3.2	-3.8	-3.5	40.5
Oakland	Cleveland	1.2	1.5	0.4	43
N.Y. Giants	New Orleans	-3.6	-3.5	-3.4	43.5
L.A. Chargers	San Francisco	8.2	8.4	8.3	45
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	6.4	5.6	5.4	46
Denver	Kansas City	-5.2	-5.8	-6.3	48

Bye Week: Carolina & Washington

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	102.6	103.1	102.2	102.6	20.5	1-2
Miami	99.4	98.9	99.8	99.3	21.5	3-0
N. Y. Jets	98.6	98.3	98.6	98.5	23	1-2
Buffalo	94.4	94.4	94.2	94.3	18	1-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	105.2	105.1	104.4	104.9	23	1-1-1
Baltimore	101.8	102.5	102.0	102.1	23	2-1
Cincinnati	99.4	100.0	99.4	99.6	22	2-1
Cleveland	96.1	96.2	97.0	96.4	22	1-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	102.9	102.7	103.1	102.9	21	2-1
Tennessee	98.5	98.7	98.3	98.5	20.5	2-1
Houston	98.4	98.3	97.9	98.2	24	0-3
Indianapolis	95.8	94.2	95.8	95.3	22	1-2
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	105.6	106.0	106.0	105.9	26.5	3-0
LA Chargers	100.8	101.6	101.0	101.2	22.5	1-2
Denver	97.9	97.6	97.2	97.6	21.5	2-1
Oakland	94.8	95.2	94.9	95.0	21	0-3
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	101.6	101.6	101.0	101.4	22.5	2-1
Washington	101.1	100.1	101.1	100.8	21.5	2-1
Dallas	99.2	99.1	98.7	99.0	19.5	1-2
N.Y. Giants	97.7	97.7	97.9	97.8	19	1-2
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	101.6	101.6	101.2	101.5	20	1-1-1
Detroit	100.1	100.1	100.2	100.1	25.5	1-2
Chicago	99.5	99.2	100.2	99.6	18	2-1
Green Bay	99.2	100.1	98.7	99.3	23.5	1-1-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Atlanta	104.2	104.1	104.4	104.2	22.5	1-2
New Orleans	103.8	103.7	103.8	103.8	24.5	2-1
Carolina	102.4	101.9	102.8	102.4	22	2-1
Tampa Bay	97.9	97.7	98.4	98.0	23.5	2-1
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	108.4	109.7	109.3	109.1	25	3-0
Seattle	100.9	100.5	100.8	100.7	22	1-2
San Francisco	95.7	96.2	95.7	95.9	22.5	1-2
Arizona	94.7	93.7	94.2	94.2	18.5	0-3

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Kansas City
2	Miami
3	Baltimore
4	Tennessee
5	New England
6	Jacksonville

 

NFC Seeding
1	L.A. Rams
2	Carolina
3	Philadelphia
4	Chicago
5	New Orleans
6	Washington

 

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville over Baltimore

New England over Tennessee

Philadelphia over Washington

New Orleans over Chicago

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Jacksonville

Miami over New England

L.A. Rams over New Orleans

Philadelphia over Carolina

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Miami

L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 53

L.A. Rams over Kansas City

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.
Our Power 5 Conference preseason ratings and won-loss predictions were figured before knowing the outcome of recent suspensions to Coaches Urban Meyer and D.J. Durkin at Ohio State and Maryland. Because our ratings set 100.0 as average, and the mean of all 130 teams must be 100.0, taking points away from Ohio State and Maryland require redistributing points to the other 128 teams. Expect these ratings to change prior to August 25.

The Atlantic Coast Conference has gotten tougher in recent years, and even though one team has dominated the league, they have been upset in conference play both of the last two years. Last year, Clemson lost at last place Syracuse. Coastal Division winner Miami fell at Pittsburgh, and the Panthers failed to get bowl eligible.
What does this mean? The ACC has quality teams from top to bottom, and on any given Saturday, a highly-ranked team might be very disappointed at the end of the day.
Clemson
Running Game: The Tigers are in excellent shape with the return of their top three runners from last year. Quarterback Kelly Bryant may see fewer snaps this year, because Coach Dabo Swinner signed the nation’s top passer, but Bryant is a game-changer with his wheel. Backs Tavien Feaster and Travis Etienne have similar running styles. They can blast through small holes and head into the clear. All three had a 100-yard game last year. CU should rush for about 200 yards per game and average about five yards per attempt.

Passing Game: Here is where things get interesting. True freshman Trevor Lawrence is not a dual-threat like Bryant, but he comes to Clemson with an NFL quarterback’s arm. Lawrence has a quick release and quite a zip on his passes. At 6-6, he still has just enough quickness to avoid the pass rush and fire off-balance to an open receiver. He needs to work on his accuracy a little and realize that he cannot make all the passes in college that he made against inferior high school defenses, but he comes to Clemson with the potential of a Peyton Manning or John Elway.  The receivers are not as strong as a year ago, but the Tigers still have loads of talent here. Hunter Renfroe is an excellent possession receiver. Tee Higgins can go deep and can turn a short pass into a long gain. Tight end Milan RIchard is an excellent target. Clemson should top 225 passing yards per game and top 30 points per game.
Defensive Line: Quite simply, Clemson’s defensive line is the best in college football, and all four starters return. When quarterbacks have little time to set up in the pocket or make a zone read decision, offenses fail, and CU’s defensive line makes them fail a lot. This unit is so strong that the second string might be the third best in other leagues. We compare this defensive line with the 1992 Alabama defensive line, in other words, one of the best ever assembled. It may even be better than a couple of NFL teams. Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins, and Austin Bryant would all start if they were in the NFL this year.
Linebackers: This is the weakest part of the defense, if you can call a top 10 unit weak. Leading tackler Kendall Joseph will be a first team all-ACC player. Middle linebacker Tre Lamar is a headhunter.

Secondary: This unit is the best in the league and a top 5 secondary overall. Safety Tanner Muse and cornerback Trayvon Mullen are the returning starters. A.J. Terrell and Mark Fields have significant experience at corner, but there could be some depth issues if this unit suffers a lot of injuries like it did last year.

Special Teams: Clemson won’t win games with their special teams, but they probably won’t lose any this way either. The loss of Ray-Ray McCloud will hurt the return game.

Outlook: They have been upset against teams they had no business losing to the last two years, but if they lose a regular season game this year, it will be ridiculous. There is so much talent throughout the roster, and the nation’s best defense could easily hold opponents under 10 points a game. This team should be 13-0 and Playoff bound yet again, where it would not surprise us if they play a familiar foe for the National Championship.
Boston College
Running Game: How good is sophomore running back A.J. Dillon? How about potentially being the next Jim Brown? Dillon is the best running back in college football, even if he must take a backseat in the headlines to Bryce Love and Jonathan Taylor. Dillon convinced us how incredible he is when he destroyed Louisville last year. On one 75-yard run, there was no hole when he took the hand-off; the Cardinal defense had multiple defenders wrapping him up, and he shed them to momentarily break free. Then, at about three yards, he basically threw another defender to the ground in a self-pancake block. In the clear, he showed his incredible speed and ran away from the defensive backs for a touchdown, one of four on the day. Dillon will force defenses to bring eight and even nine into the box. The great news is that the entire starting offensive line returns.

Passing Game: Anthony Brown is a better runner than passer, but he will get excellent protection and should make some big plays on play-action passing when defenses have to think about stopping Dillon first. B-C has always been a sort of Tight End U, and they have an excellent tandem in Tommy Sweeney and Chris Garrison (51-664/5 combined)

Defensive Line: The Eagles were too generous against the run last year, giving up 4.8 yards per rush. Notre Dame ran for 515 yards on this unit. End Zach Allen is the star of this unit, and enemy blockers will have to double team him to keep him away from the quarterback. Allen projects as a 1st round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Linebackers: This could be an improved unit if it stays healthy. John Lamot showed promise as a freshman. Conor Strachan is healthy again after missing last year. In 2016, he made 80 tackles with 11 for loss.

Secondary: The secondary played admirably well last year and should be quite strong again this year. Free safety Lukas Denis is a bandit and picked off 7 passes, while strong safety Will Harris stops running plays before they can get too far.

Special Teams: Michael Walker is an effective returner, but kicking game is nothing special.

Outlook: Boston College should go 4-0 outside of the ACC, and with Dillon running behind a strong offensive line, Coach Steve Addazio should be able to keep his defense off the field enough to keep them fresh and hide his depth issues on this side of the ball. B-C could be a dark horse challenger for second in the Atlantic Division, and the Eagles should return to a bowl this year, and most likely win a game or two more than last year.

N. Carolina St.
Running Game: Unless true freshman Ricky Person takes over early and dominates like his press clippings predict, the Wolf Pack running game is likely to retreat from recent seasons. Expected starter Reggie Gallaspy has yet to get through a season healthy. Person already has missed practice time with injuries. NC St. may not average 125 rushing yards per game this year.

Passing Game: Ryan Finley needs to live up to his hype. NFL scouts believe he is a late 1st round draft pick, but Finley had a terrible stretch late in the year when his completion percentage fell under 60%, and he threw more interceptions than touchdown passes, while averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt. He recovered to look like a Heisman Trophy contender in the Sun Bowl, when he torched Arizona State. Finley benefits by having one of the nation’s top receivers on the roster. Kelvin Harmon caught 69 passes for 1,017 yards last year and could top 80 and 1,200 this year. Stephen Louis gives Finley an excellent number two receiver. The offensive line is better at pass blocking than run blocking, and there is experience and depth here.
Defensive Line: While not exceptionally talented and somewhat inexperienced, this is the best unit on this side of the ball. The Wolf Pack were much better at stopping the run than the pass last year, but the players responsible for stuffing runners at the line are no longer here. Tackle Eundraus Bryant and end Darian Roseboro give NC St. a couple of above-average linemen.

Linebackers: This unit is a big concern. After losing its leading tackler, there isn’t much talent or depth remaining. Germaine Pratt is the best of the two-deep, but he is not one of the top 10 linebackers in the league.

Secondary: Expect a little better play from the defensive backfield this year, but if an adequate pass rush doesn’t form, the statistics could be little changed from last year, when the Pack surrendered 253 passing yards per game. There has been an upgrade in talent here, with former Tennessee safety Stephen Griffin eligible this year.

Special Teams: Punter A.J. Cole is very good. The Wolf Pack need a kicker to emerge with consistency, and freshman Christopher Dunn may become the new regular. The return game was excellent last year, but they lose their key man.

Outlook: Make no mistake about this–Coach Dave Doeren has slowly built up this program to where it was during the Dick Sheridan years. Even with a rebuilding defense, the offense can carry this team to a top 25 ranking. Except for the game at Clemson, State can beat any other team on their schedule, and we expect the Wolf Pack to at least match last year’s nine-win total.

Florida St.
Running Game: Are two very good running backs as good as one superior running back? It depends. If the one superior back goes out injured, the team is toast. If one of the two really good teammates goes out injured, at least you still have one remaining. Florida State’s top two backs are very good, but neither will remind anybody of Dillon. Cam Akers topped 1,000 yards last year, but he did a lot of his damage against weaker teams. He did explode for 121 yards against Miami, so there is promise that he will be more consistent this year. Jacques Patrick missed a couple game due to injury but still managed to add 748 rushing yards. The Seminoles’ offensive line is also very good but not a great unit.
Passing Game: Florida State will take their quarterback competition down to the wire before naming a starter for the Virginia Tech game on Labor Day. After enjoying a successful freshman campaign in which he threw for 3,350 yards and 20 TDs, Deondre Francois was touted as a phenom last year on the eve of the opener against Alabama. Francois didn’t last through the opener, ending his season with a knee injury. He will need some new game experience to remove the rust, and he will most likely be number two on the depth chart. James Blackman isn’t as mobile as Francois, and he has issues sometimes with finesse passes, but he has the best arm on the roster. Blackman looked like the leader of this team when he torched Southern Miss in the Independence Bowl with 4 TD passes. Bailey Hockman is a pure dropback passer with a strong and accurate arm but with no game experience. Whoever wins the starting job, he will have some talented receivers catching his passes. Nyqwan Murray can catch the ball in a crowd and knows how to turn upfield and gain extra yards once he catches the ball. There are depth issues here.

Defensive Line: The Seminoles have half of an excellent front four. Tackle Demarcus Christmas and end Brian Burns can compete for All-ACC honors. If tackle Marvin Wilson can play the way his pedigree predicted, FSU could improve their run defense and give up less than 125 yards per game. The pass rush is adequate but not exceptional.

Linebackers: This is a rebuilding project. The Seminoles lost all three starters, including two NFL picks. The leading returnee had just 12 tackles. The development of the new starters will determine if FSU can slow down the great backs in this league and prevent short passing games from picking them apart.

Secondary: The Seminoles should be okay at cornerback with two fine starters and a decent backup, but there could be issues at safety.

Special Teams: This unit should be better than average, but the Seminoles are not likely to pick up any extra wins by relying on it to be decisive.

Outlook: Coach Willie Taggart’s hurry-up spread offense may take some time for his players to adjust to after playing a power, pro style under Jimbo FIsher. The Seminoles will start slow but pick up momentum as the season continues. Their bowl streak should continue, but the bowl is likely to be earlier in December than they like.

Wake Forest
Running Game: The ground game under Coach Dave Clawson has improved for three consecutive years after being dead last in the nation in 2014. Matt Colburn approached 1,000 yard territory last year, as he averaged 5.4 yards per rush. With the loss of dual-threat quarterback John Wolford, expect Colburn to run the ball a few more times per game. His second half was better than the first, so it would not be surprising if he rushed for 1,200 or more yards in 2018. With all five offensive line starters back, the Demon Deacons could top 200 rushing yards per game if new quarterback Kendall Hinton can pick up where Wolford left off.

Passing Game: This is where Wake Forest will really miss Wolford. Hinton will most likely fail to match his 3,192 passing yards and incredible 29 touchdown passes. Wake Forest shattered its all time scoring and total offense high marks last year, averaging more than 35 points and 465 yards per game. They need to come close to matching that this year, because they will have to outscore opponents once again.

Defensive Line: Not much has changed in Winston-Salem on this side of the ball, as Wake Forest is mediocre in its front seven. They had one star in Duke Ejiofor, who now plays for the Houston Texans. The pass rush will be weak, and backs like Dillon and Akers will be smiling when they line up against this defense.

Linebackers: This unit is weaker than the defensive line. One starter returns in middle linebacker Demetrius Kemp. Most of his tackles were made after successful plays by the opponent.

Secondary: This is the strongest unit on the team, but it is still not stellar, just average. Three starters return. Corners Amari Henderson and Essang Bassey and strong safety Cameron Glenn teamed for 7 interceptions and 33 passes defended.

Special Teams: Dom Maggio is one of the top punters in the ACC, but Wake Forest lost All-conference kicker Mike Weaver. Greg Dortch is a fine but not outstanding return man.

Outlook: Coach Clawson has another good offense that will have to win games by scoring a lot of points. The Deacons will do that six or seven times, but they will take a small step backwards this year.

Louisville
Running Game: Lamar Jackson rushed for 4,132 yards and 50 touchdowns in three years as Louisville’s quarterback. His running ability will be harder to make up for than his passing ability. Jawon Pass is not close to Jackson as a runner. Louisville will not rush for 245 yards this year. Top back Dae Williams rushed for just 235 yards last year, but he is capable of topping 1,000 yards. Still, UL will most likely rush for less than 200 yards per game this year, even with an experienced offensive line returning.

Passing Game: Pass can hum that pigskin. He has a strong arm, and he’s more likely to be like past Bobby Petrino quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. He might top 300 passing yards per game, and with Jaylen Smith, Seth Dawkins, and Dez Fitzpatrick returning to catch those passes, the Cardinal offense will still thrive. The terrific trio averaged almost 16 yards per catch and scored 20 TDs on their 147 receptions.

Defensive Line: Uh-oh! Louisville’s defensive line was not outstanding last year, but it was experienced. Nary a starter returns this year. There is one star returning in former designated pass rusher end Jon Greenard, who tallied 7 sacks in 2017.

Linebackers: It’s a similar issue at linebacker, as the Cardinals must replace two of three starters. The lone returnee, Dorian Etheridge, finished second on the team in tackles, but he did not create big plays. True freshman Robert Hicks may hit the field immediately this year.

Secondary: We failed to mention that 9 of 11 starters on this side of the ball finished their college careers last year. That leaves just one starter left in this unit. Russ Yeast was a part-time starter, and he produced no big statistics.

Special Teams: The Cardinals have exceptional kicking but nothing special in their return game. Kicker Blanton Creque is accurate up to 50 yards, while punter Mason King is one of the best in the league.
Outlook: With Jackson and a more experienced defense, Louisville could only manage an 8-5 season. Frequently, teams outscored the Cardinals. Expect the Cardinals to take a step backwards. A 6-6 regular season with a minor bowl would be a successful season for this young roster.

Syracuse
Running Game: Dino Babers’ teams are known for their wide-open passing attacks, but Syracuse had several excellent games on the ground last year. Miami’s game plan was to force the Orangemen to run the ball, as they played a lot of safe zone coverages. SU ran the ball well enough to keep the game close. The key players return this year, including Dontae Strickland. Quarterback Eric Dungey actually led the team in rushing, and his return means he could team with Strickland to combine for about 1,200 yards. The offensive line improved somewhat in year two of the Babers era, and it should be as good or even better this season.
Passing Game: Dungey passed for 2,495 yards with 14 touchdowns last year, but for the third consecutive season, he missed games due to injury. Even if he stays healthy this year, he will have a hard time matching his per game average from 2017, because SU lost Steve Ishamel and Ervin Phillips and their 194 catches. Syracuse will spread their receptions out among four or five wideouts this year.

Defensive Line: Three starters return to the trenches led by end Alton Robinson, who led the Orangemen with 5 sacks. Tackle Chris Slayton is strong against the run.

Linebackers: This is the weakest unit on the entire team. SU will have to rely on juco transfers this year, as graduation took their number one, two, and four tacklers.

Secondary: The Orangemen have three experienced defensive backs returning, but this is another liability. Syracuse gave up 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and only 4 interceptions (3 from the secondary).

Special Teams: Sean Riley is decent as a return specialist, and Sterling Hofricher is a capable punter, but the Orangemen need a new placekicker. Hofricher might have to take over and handle both jobs.

Outlook: If Syracuse didn’t have to play Notre Dame this year, we might be inclined to pick this team to sneak into bowl eligibility with six wins. With the Irish added, the schedule is a bit too difficult to expect Syracuse to get past 5 wins.

Miami
Running Game: When you look at the sum of the parts, Miami didn’t have the look of 10-3 team. The Hurricane running game was nothing special, finishing 10th in the ACC, but on closer look, Mark Richt’s team finished third in average yards per rush behind Louisville with Jackson and Georgia Tech with their option offense. With quarterback Malik Rosier and top back Travis Homer returning, behind an offensive line that should be on par with 2017, look for the running game to be as good or better than last year.

Passing Game: Rosier’s 2017 season might have inspired Charles Dickins to write A Tail of Two Passers in One Body. It was the best of times for the signal caller during the first ten games, and the worst of times in the final three. Rosier is more of a gunslinger than a West Coast Offense prototype. He’s near the top in the nation at throwing the deep ball, but he can be impatient with everything else. In the first ten games, his efficiency rating was 141.7, and he averaged better than 8 yards per attempt. In the last three games, his efficiency rating fell to 92.0 with a 44.9% completion rate and five interceptions. Rosier lost his top targets from last year, but he has some athletic replacements that can run deep routes and get enough separation for the Hurricanes to get some quick scores again.

Defensive Line: Enemy quarterbacks will not look forward to playing the Hurricanes with their strong pass rush. Joe Jackson and Jonathan Garvin will get their share of sacks and hurries, and their quick rush might help UM carry on that great Turnover Chain tradition. Miami could be a little more generous against the run this year.

Linebackers: This is by far the best trio in the league and one of the five best in the nation. This trio will be back for the third year, and you can expect Zach McCloud, Shaq Quarterman, and Michael Pinckney to top 200 total tackles if they stay healthy. 22 1/2 of this groups tackles last year were for lost yardage.

Secondary: Three starters return to a unit that liked to wear that chain following interceptions. Jaquan Johnson and Michael Jackson both intercepted four passes in 2017, and Johnson forced three fumbles as well. Rarely can a defense finish first in its conference in turnover margin in consecutive seasons, but this unit could pull off that feat this year if the offense does its part.

Special Teams: The Hurricanes are not strong here, and this could actually cost them a close game. Punter Zach Feagles averaged just 38.6 yards per punt, and he could be the strongest link in this unit. True freshman kicker Bubba Baxa can kick the ball a mile, but he has to become more consistent with kicking it straight.

Outlook: The Hurricanes are the team to beat in the Coastal Division for the second consecutive season. Unfortunately, they still have a ways to go before they can challenge Clemson for the ACC Championship. Another 10-win season is probable, only this time the losses won’t all come at the end.

Virginia Tech
Running Game: Coach Justin Fuente shared the wealth in his running game last year, basically because no back emerged as the go to guy. Deshawn McClease, Jalen Holston and Steven Peoples will share most of the carries again this year. The Hokies failed to average four yards per rush last year, and it brought down the scoring average. The offensive line may be slightly improved this year for the running attack.

Passing Game: Josh Jackson played like a talented freshman last year as the young starter. He put up some rather good numbers with 2,991 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, but down the stretch, his passing efficiency fell to 106.7 in the final 5 games. With Cam Phillips off to the Buffalo Bills, Sean Savoy and Eric Kumah become the top targets.

Defensive Line: This is where the Hokies will shine. Three starters plus the top reserve return to the trenches. Bud Foster is still around coaching the defense, and Virginia Tech will always be tough to run against. Tackle Ricky Walker made 41 tackles, with 12.5 for loss. He’s nearly impossible to run on, and he can get after the quarterback from the inside.

Linebackers: Other than running back, this is the one potential problem area. Mook Reynolds is the only returning starter, and he recorded nine tackles for loss last year. There isn’t much depth here.

Secondary: This is one of the best defensive backfields in the ACC, but it is less experienced than it was last year. Reggie Floyd is the top star here. The strong safety intercepted three passes last year, including a pick six against North Carolina.

Special Teams: For years, Virginia Tech was noted for its excellent special teams. 2017 was no different, but the stars that made this unit so good have left Blacksburg. Punter Oscar Bradburn returns, but the rest of this unit is somewhat untested.

Outlook: The Hokies will be a good but not great team in 2018. The defense lost a bit too much to repeat its performance of last year, and the offense is not ready to simply outscore the better teams. More of the projected tossup games are on the road, so we expect an 8 or 9 win season this year.

Duke
Running Game: Half of Duke’s excellent tandem of 2017 returns this year. Brittain Brown rushed for 701 yards at a 5.4 average per rush. He’s got good hands and can catch the ball out of the backfield. The offensive line has less experience entering the season, but the line was not a strong point last year and could actually be a little better this year.

Passing Game: Daniel Jones is a better runner than a passer to this point in his career. His TD/INT ratio was 14/11, and he averaged less than 6 yards per pass attempt. He was better as a freshman in 2016, and he finished the season playing his best ball, so prospects are good that 2018 could see a jump forward. All of his key targets from last year return, including T.J. Rahming, who led with 65 receptions and 795 yards. Expect David Cutcliffe to get a lot more out of this phase of the game this year; Duke could average 250 passing yards per game.

Defensive Line: Duke concentrates its pass defense on keeping maximum personnel in coverage, and their pass rush is not all that terrific. The line is not a strong point, and even thought three of four starters return, it isn’t one that will scare opposing ACC backs.

Linebackers: Here is where the Blue Devils make their plays. The linebacker duo return to try to improve on 25 tackles for loss. Ben Humphreys and Joe Giles-Harris could start for most Power 5 teams.

Secondary: Two players with extensive starting experience return to the 5-man secondary, including cornerback Mark Gilbert. Gilbert intercepted six passes a year ago and broke up 15 more.

Special Teams: Duke must audition for a new kicker and punter. There is experience in the return game, but the talent is average here.

Outlook: A 7-6 season that included a bowl win over Northern Illinois was about what was expected last year. This year, the Blue Devils should maintain the status quo or improve ever so slightly on last year’s success.

Georgia Tech
Running Game: It’s the option attack, so the running game is always going to be some variation of good. When they averaged 307 yards per game to lead the ACC last year and finish fifth overall in the FBS, it almost was like a minor disappointment. Any time the option attack returns an experienced quarterback, it almost always improves over the previous year, and TaQuon Marshall returns after rushing for 1,146 yards and 17 touchdowns. Marshall has the ability to free-lance a little more than the average option quarterback. Once in the clear, he accelerates like a top-rated running back. Georgia Tech returns both starting A Backs and their starting B Back. B Back KirVonte Benson (old-fashioned fullback position) is a powerful runner, who gives Tech two returning 1,000 yard rushers. He’s powerful with a low center of gravity, and it isn’t uncommon for him to push the defense an extra five yards after multiple defenders make contact.

Passing Game: It’s the option attack, so the passing game is always going to be a decoy until the quarterback lulls the defense into thinking he will never pass. Marshall is a runner first, second, and third. He has just enough passing talent to run play-action and throw the bomb. Even when it is not completed, it warns the safeties to remember that the next one could be completed. The offensive line is built for run blocking, so Tech cannot get too fancy with their passing game. Still, there is room for improvement. While 8.6% of his passes resulted in touchdowns, 4.3% of his passes resulted in interceptions.

Defensive Line: This is a work in progress. Coach Paul Johnson brought in Nate Woody as his new defensive coordinator, and Woody brings the 3-4 defense to Atlanta. Tech was a 4-2-5 team last year, and the front line will have some rough adjustments, as it becomes more of a protector for the linebackers.

Linebackers: Although not a juggernaut, the quartet of linebackers makes this the best unit on this side of the ball. Outside backer Victor Alexander should thrive in this new set, and Brant Mitchell should add about 30 more tackles to his stat sheet than he did last year.

Secondary: This could be trouble. The problem with option teams is they seldom have a scout team quarterback and receivers that can help their pass defense practice in real game-like situations. Add to this that just one starter returns from the five that started last year, and Tech could give up 230 to 250 passing yards per game.

Special Teams: Pressley Harvin is one of the nation’s top punters, and he’s just a sophomore. Tech hopes Shawn Davis can improve from a so-so year, as the Yellow Jackets made just 7 field goals. The return game is average at best.

Outlook: After suffering a 5-6 season with a game wiped out due to a hurricane, Georgia Tech should recover and become bowl eligible once again. With a few breaks, they could even challenge for the division title.

Pittsburgh
Running Game: The offense grounded to a halt last year, as Pitt could only muster 148 rushing yards per game and had consistent star running back like James Conner. Darrin Hall could be that missing ingredient this year after flashing signs of greatness in 2017. Against Duke, he broke two long touchdown runs and scored three total on the way to a 254-yard day. Hall will run behind a stronger offensive line this year, even though there will be some new faces starting.

Passing Game: Three quarterbacks took turns starting last year, and the third one in that group returns as the starter at the beginning of 2018. Kenny Pickett went 1-1 as the starter at the close of the season, performing quite well and earning the starting nod in 2018. He engineered the victory over Miami when the Hurricanes were 10-0 and ranked number two in the nation. The problem is that none of last year’s starting receivers are back. Rafael Araujo-Lopes was a regular who just so happened to come of the bench, so it is like having one starter back.

Defensive Line: A deceptively good defense last year, Pitt should be more obvious about their goodness this season. The Panthers were strong against the run, and they should be so again this year. End Dewayne Hendrix leads a talented and deep front four, as Pitt substituted and played a lot of players up front last year.

Linebackers: All three starters return, making this the strength of the team. Leading tackler Oluwaseun Idowu recorded 94 tackles with 11 1/2 for loss and 5 sacks. Second leading tackler Saleem Brightwell had 73 tackles.

Secondary: The defensive backfield makes a lot of changes this year as three starters depart. Coach Pat Narduzzi has some highly-prized recruits to come in and help out against the pass.

Special Teams: Any time Pitt gets to the opponents’ 40 yard line, they are in field goal range for Alex Kessman. His leg is among the strongest in the nation in college or the NFL, but his accuracy has not caught up to his strength. Replacing All-ACC punter Ryan Winslow won’t be easy. Replacing star returner Quadree Henderson won’t be possible.

Outlook: Pittsburgh faces the strongest non-conference schedule this year, and it could prevent the Panthers from returning to the plus side of .500. The Panthers have road games with Central Florida and Notre Dame plus a home game with Penn State, and they could be 1-3 out of the ACC. It would take a 5-3 conference mark to become bowl eligible, and that is asking a bit too much for this roster.

N. Carolina
Note: 13 players face 1 to 4 game suspensions for selling their school issued tennis shoes. The opening week PiRate Rating will reflect the change in personnel for the Cal game.

Running Game: Both running backs that shared most of the load last year (Jordan Brown & Michael Carter) return, but they will be running behind a rebuilt offensive line that must replace three full-time starters plus a fourth player that started most of the games. It may be hard to top the 145 rushing yards per game from last year.

Passing Game: Chazz Surratt lost his spot as starter last year due to injury. This year, a 4-game suspension gives the job to last year’s replacement Nathan Elliott. Elliott started the last four games and had mixed results. Elliott has one star target in the receiving corps. Anthony Ratliff-Williams had just 35 catches last year, but he gives Elliott a big receiver to leap over defenders to make circus catches, while supplying speed to break long gains from short and medium length passes.

Defensive Line: The Tar Heels couldn’t stop opposing offenses last year, giving up 31.3 points and 436 yards per game. While there are experienced players returning to the trenches, this group could not stop the run. Expect a little improvement as most of the two-deep is back.

Linebackers: Like the defensive line, there is room for improvement, but unlike the line, there isn’t much experience returning past leading tackler Cole Holcomb.

Secondary: There is some talent and experience in the backfield. K.J. Sails led the Heels with 13 passed defended. Myles Dorn had 71 tackles and two interceptions.

Special Teams: This has been a strong point during the Larry Fedora era. Kick returner Anthony Ratliff-Williams returned 2 of his 34 kick returns for touchdowns. He will handle punt returns this year as well. Hunter Lent took over as Punter in the middle of the season last year and performed brilliantly with a 44.9 average.

Outlook: This could be a win or else year for Fedora, and with all the suspensions early in the season against a tough September schedule, the Tar Heels could be doomed early and struggle to stay out of the basement for a second consecutive season.

Virginia
Running Game: Bronco Mendenhall shocked the league by guiding Virginia to bowl eligibility coming off a 2-11 first season in Charlottesville. The Cavaliers certainly didn’t win six games with their running game. UVA averaged just 93.5 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per rush. Nearly 70% of the team’s rushing yardage came from one player, and Jordan Ellis returns as that player. He may struggle to do much better this year behind a raw offensive line, which might be the weakest in the league.

Passing Game: Kurt Benkert’s arm got Virginia to the Military Bowl last year, but Benkert graduated. Stepping in to replace him is junior college transfer Bryce Perkins. Perkins is a dual-threat quarterback, something Mendenhall has not had at Virginia. Perkins has speed like a top running back, but he is no slouch as a passer. H-Back Olamide Zaccheaus caught a team-leading 85 passes a year ago, while tight end Evan Butts added 32 catches.

Defensive Line: The Cavaliers yielded just under 200 rushing yards per game last year, but with both ends missing from last year’s 3-4 front, and with some missing pieces in the next line of defense, that number will most likely zoom over 200 this year. Don’t expect much pass rush from this group either.

Linebackers: Things are a lot better in this unit, but the Cavaliers are still missing two fine starters from last year. Jordan Mack and Chris Peace are talented all around, stopping runs for little gain and getting into the backfield when they blitz. Still, this unit loses All-Conference and leading tackler Micah Kiser (143 tackles/5 sacks/2 fumble recoveries).

Secondary: They didn’t get much credit, but the secondary was one of the top four or five in the ACC last year. Three starters return. Bryce Hall, Brenton Nelson, and Juan Thornhill combined for 9 interceptions and 26 passes defended. There’s depth here, so this will be the strength of the defense.

Special Teams: This unit will help Virginia win a close game at some point in the season. Kick returner Joe Reed averaged 30 yards per return and took back 2 for touchdowns. Punter Lester Coleman averaged close to 44 yards per punt. A better year is expected out of kicker A.J. Mejia.

Outlook: Nobody expected this team to make a bowl game last year, and the media is not giving any love to the team this year. This team has the talent to challenge for bowl eligibility, and if Perkins can move the offense like he did in junior college in Arizona, the Cavaliers could surprise again with another 6-6 regular season. If Perkins does not shine, then 4-8 is more likely.

Here is how the ACC Media voted in the preseason poll

ACC
Atlantic	1st Place	Points
1. Clemson	145	1,031
2. Florida St.	1	789
3. North Carolina St.	2	712
4. Boston College	0	545
5. Louisville	0	422
6. Wake Forest	0	412
7. Syracuse	0	232
Coastal	1st Place	Points
1. Miami (Fla.)	122	998
2. Virginia Tech	16	838
3. Georgia Tech	8	654
4. Duke	1	607
5. Pittsburgh	0	420
6. North Carolina	1	370
7. Virginia	0	257

 

The PiRate Ratings differ somewhat

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	0-0	0-0	131.7	128.4	132.6	130.9
Boston College	0-0	0-0	117.3	113.7	117.2	116.1
N. Carolina St.	0-0	0-0	113.8	113.0	113.6	113.5
Florida St.	0-0	0-0	111.5	110.9	111.3	111.2
Wake Forest	0-0	0-0	109.8	107.5	107.3	108.2
Louisville	0-0	0-0	105.1	105.3	104.6	105.0
Syracuse	0-0	0-0	106.2	104.2	104.6	105.0
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	0-0	0-0	120.3	118.2	120.0	119.5
Virginia Tech	0-0	0-0	114.3	113.7	114.0	114.0
Duke	0-0	0-0	113.3	110.4	112.4	112.1
Georgia Tech	0-0	0-0	112.2	110.9	111.8	111.7
Pittsburgh	0-0	0-0	105.5	105.2	104.7	105.2
N. Carolina	0-0	0-0	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
Virginia	0-0	0-0	101.5	102.0	99.9	101.1
ACC Averages			112.0	110.6	111.3	111.3

New Coaches
Willie Taggart’s stay in the Pacific Northwest lasted just one year. The former South Florida coach left Oregon to return to the Sunshine State and takes over the reins from Jimbo Fisher at Florida State. Taggart comes from the Jim Harbaugh coaching tree, or should we say just the Harbaugh coaching tree. He actually played and then coached under papa Jack Harbaugh at Western Kentucky, before he became a Stanford assistant under son Jim. In his short stints at Western Kentucky, South Florida, and Oregon, he has improved the won-loss record every year but one, in which he equaled that one.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. Ohio State and Maryland could see their ratings change by large amounts depending on the outcome of the two coaching investigations.

ACC
Team	Conference	Overall
Atlantic
Clemson	8-0	13-0*
North Carolina St.	7-1	11-1
Boston College	4-4	8-4
Florida St.	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	3-5	6-6
Syracuse	2-6	5-7
Louisville	1-7	4-8
Coastal
Miami	8-0	12-1
Duke	6-2	9-3
Virginia Tech	5-3	8-4
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-4
North Carolina	2-6	4-8
Pittsburgh	2-6	3-9
Virginia	0-8	4-8
*Clemson to win ACC Champ. Game

Bowl Tie-ins
1. Camping World Bowl in Orlando, FL
2. Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL ***
3. Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC
3. Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN or Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL
3. Pinstripe Bowl in New York, NY
3. Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX
7. Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA
7. Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD
7. Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, MI
The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and St. Petersburg Bowls.
*** Citrus (if top possible team is higher-ranked than SEC or Big Ten team)

Coming Tomorrow–The Southeastern Conference

PiRate Ratings College Football Final Regular Season Polls

The PiRate Poll has been updated after the Conference Championship Games, and our ratings show something different from what the Playoff Committee will decide later today.

Our Retrodictive Ratings are our closest approximation to merit based rewards.  It only factors who you beat, where you beat them, when you beat them, and in minimal fashion how you beat them.  Here are our final Retro Ratings prior to the bowls and playoffs.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Georgia
3	Oklahoma
4	Alabama
5	Ohio St.
6	Wisconsin
7	Central Florida
8	Penn St.
9	Auburn
10	Washington
11	Miami (Fla)
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Oklahoma St.
17	Stanford
18	Michigan St.
19	Michigan
20	Washington St.
21	Northwestern
22	Memphis
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Toledo
33	Wake Forest
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Appalachian St.
75	Colorado
76	Colorado St.
77	Temple
78	Nebraska
79	Western Michigan
80	Tulane
81	Arkansas St.
82	Florida Int’l.
83	Akron
84	Southern Miss.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Cincinnati
100	Western Kentucky
101	Tulsa
102	UNLV
103	Baylor
104	New Mexico St.
105	BYU
106	East Carolina
107	Nevada
108	Georgia St.
109	Massachusetts
110	Connecticut
111	Illinois
112	Old Dominion
113	UL-Monroe
114	Bowling Green
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	South Alabama
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Coastal Carolina
122	Georgia Southern
123	Kansas
124	Kent St.
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

While our ratings show that Alabama should be chosen ahead of Ohio State, we believe there will be too much pressure to take two SEC teams and leave out the Big Ten and Pac-12, especially when the Rose Bowl is one of the semifinal games.

Our ratings reflect a 34-point loss by Ohio State at a mediocre Iowa team combined with a home loss to Oklahoma, which slightly offsets their wins over Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Alabama’s best wins were not as impressive as the Buckeyes, but as a whole, they did beat more decent teams, and the SEC is several points better than the Big Ten.  Plus, their one loss was at Auburn, a team that had just blown Georgia off the Jordan-Hare Field.  Truth be told, if the Committee deferred to the smart guys in Nevada, Alabama would be the number one seed in the playoffs.

Our Predictive ratings back us up on this point.  However, the predictive ratings show that Ohio State is one of the four best teams at this point of the season.  We are scratching our heads on why Oklahoma is so low in the predictive ratings, because they have been improving week by week.  Unfortunately, they may have fallen between the cracks in how we update.  We have a mechanical update based on statistics and the point in which an easy win was already guaranteed, and maybe OU kept missing out on extra points due to a few yards here or there.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Clemson	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
3	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
4	Georgia	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
5	Auburn	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
6	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
7	Oklahoma	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
11	U S C	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
12	Stanford	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
13	Miami	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
14	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
15	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
16	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
17	T C U	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
18	Florida St.	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
46	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
47	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
48	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
49	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
50	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
51	Boise St.	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Florida Atlantic	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
63	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
64	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
65	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Fresno St.	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
71	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
74	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
75	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
76	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
77	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Arkansas St.	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
80	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
81	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
82	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
83	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
84	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
85	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
92	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	Massachusetts	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
98	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
99	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
100	Akron	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
103	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
104	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
105	N. Texas	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
113	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
114	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
115	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
116	UL-Monroe	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
117	S. Alabama	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
118	Idaho	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
119	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
120	Georgia St.	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
121	UL-Lafayette	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
122	Georgia Southern	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
123	Coastal Carolina	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
124	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	12-0	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-2	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	12-1	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	6-6	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-2	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	12-1	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-3	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	11-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-1	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	10-3	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	8-4	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
N. Texas	7-1	9-4	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-8	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Akron	6-2	7-6	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	11-2	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	10-3	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-4	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-4	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	11-2	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	12-1	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-3	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	7-1	10-2	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
Appalachian St.	7-1	8-4	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
Arkansas St.	6-2	7-4	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
N. Mexico St.	4-4	6-6	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-8	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
S. Alabama	3-5	4-8	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
Idaho	3-5	4-8	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
Georgia St.	5-3	6-5	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
UL-Lafayette	4-4	5-7	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
Georgia Southern	2-6	2-10	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
Coastal Carolina	2-6	3-9	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
2	SEC	112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
5	BIG TEN	108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
11	Sun Belt	83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

Look for our bowl and playoff spreads following next week’s Army – Navy game.

If you didn’t see our Army-Navy spread last week, it is:

Philadelphia	PA	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army (n)	Navy	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3

Why the unique color purple?

This is what we call Love Purple.  You can replicate it with the RGB of 69-0-169 and the Hex Code of 4500A9.

Love purple is the official logo color of our mom and pop company in Nashville.  We are highly appreciative of all our supporters here, and we wish you a loving and joyous holiday season.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
USC (n)	Stanford	-0.7	0.2	-0.6
Central Florida	Memphis	3.5	5.5	4.0
Florida St.	UL-Monroe	38.0	36.1	37.4
Toledo (n)	Akron	16.0	13.5	17.2
Florida Atlantic	North Texas	14.3	14.8	15.0
Oklahoma (n)	TCU	6.5	6.9	7.2
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	-6.2	-5.9	-5.0
Georgia St.	Idaho	7.5	6.3	6.5
Appy St.	UL-Lafayette	15.7	13.2	15.6
Arkansas St.	Troy	-0.8	0.0	0.5
Georgia (n)	Auburn	-3.1	-1.1	-3.1
New Mexico St.	South Alabama	7.9	4.7	7.8
Boise St.	Fresno St.	10.6	10.5	10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n)	Clemson	-7.9	-6.4	-8.6
Wisconsin (n)	Ohio St.	-6.3	-6.7	-7.5
Army (n)	Navy	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Wisconsin
3	Alabama
4	Oklahoma
5	Georgia
6	Auburn
7	Ohio St.
8	Central Florida
9	Penn St.
10	Miami (Fla)
11	Washington
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Stanford
17	Oklahoma St.
18	Michigan St.
19	Memphis
20	Michigan
21	Washington St.
22	Northwestern
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Wake Forest
33	Toledo
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Colorado
75	Colorado St.
76	Temple
77	Nebraska
78	Western Michigan
79	Tulane
80	Arkansas St.
81	Akron
82	Appalachian St.
83	Southern Miss.
84	Florida Int’l.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Georgia St.
100	Cincinnati
101	Western Kentucky
102	Tulsa
103	UNLV
104	Baylor
105	Massachusetts
106	East Carolina
107	New Mexico St.
108	BYU
109	Nevada
110	Connecticut
111	UL-Monroe
112	Illinois
113	Old Dominion
114	UL-Lafayette
115	Bowling Green
116	South Alabama
117	New Mexico
118	Idaho
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Georgia Southern
122	Kansas
123	Kent St.
124	Coastal Carolina
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
3	Auburn	131.3	128.9	131.7	130.6
4	Clemson	130.0	127.2	129.7	129.0
5	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
6	Georgia	128.2	127.8	128.6	128.2
7	Oklahoma	126.3	125.0	127.3	126.2
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Miami	122.1	120.8	121.1	121.3
11	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
12	Stanford	120.9	119.2	120.4	120.2
13	U S C	120.2	119.4	119.8	119.8
14	T C U	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
15	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
16	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
17	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
18	Florida St.	117.1	116.1	115.7	116.3
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.3	112.5	114.1	113.3
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Boise St.	106.1	104.8	106.3	105.7
46	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
47	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
48	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
49	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
50	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
51	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.4	105.6	104.2
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
63	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
64	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
65	Florida Atlantic	99.0	100.7	100.7	100.1
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.1	99.2	98.9	99.1
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
71	Fresno St.	98.5	97.3	99.3	98.4
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
74	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
75	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
76	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
77	Arkansas St.	95.2	96.3	96.4	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
80	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
81	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
82	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
83	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
84	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
85	Appalachian St.	94.8	93.6	94.8	94.4
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Massachusetts	90.8	90.0	91.1	90.6
92	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
93	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
98	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
99	Akron	87.7	89.8	88.4	88.6
100	N. Texas	87.7	88.9	88.6	88.4
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Florida Int’l.	87.6	88.1	88.4	88.1
103	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
104	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
105	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Georgia St.	83.1	82.9	82.9	83.0
113	UL-Lafayette	82.2	83.4	82.1	82.6
114	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
115	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
116	UL-Monroe	82.1	83.0	81.3	82.1
117	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
118	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
119	S. Alabama	81.0	83.0	81.2	81.7
120	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
121	Georgia Southern	80.9	82.0	80.4	81.1
122	Idaho	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
123	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
124	Coastal Carolina	72.7	74.1	73.4	73.4
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	11-0	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-1	113.3	112.5	114.1	113.3
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	11-1	130.0	127.2	129.7	129.0
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	5-6	117.1	116.1	115.7	116.3
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-1	122.1	120.8	121.1	121.3
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.2	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	11-1	126.3	125.0	127.3	126.2
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-2	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	10-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-0	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	9-3	99.0	100.7	100.7	100.1
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	7-4	87.6	88.1	88.4	88.1
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
N. Texas	7-1	9-3	87.7	88.9	88.6	88.4
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-7	90.8	90.0	91.1	90.6
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			99.1	98.7	99.3	99.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Akron	6-2	7-5	87.7	89.8	88.4	88.6
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	10-2	103.6	103.4	105.6	104.2
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	9-3	106.1	104.8	106.3	105.7
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-3	98.5	97.3	99.3	98.4
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-3	120.9	119.2	120.4	120.2
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	10-2	120.2	119.4	119.8	119.8
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	11-1	128.2	127.8	128.6	128.2
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-2	131.3	128.9	131.7	130.6
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			111.9	110.6	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	6-1	9-2	99.1	99.2	98.9	99.1
Arkansas St.	6-1	7-3	95.2	96.3	96.4	96.0
Appalachian St.	6-1	7-4	94.8	93.6	94.8	94.4
N. Mexico St.	3-4	5-6	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
Georgia St.	5-2	6-4	83.1	82.9	82.9	83.0
UL-Lafayette	4-3	5-6	82.2	83.4	82.1	82.6
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-7	82.1	83.0	81.3	82.1
S. Alabama	3-4	4-7	81.0	83.0	81.2	81.7
Georgia Southern	2-5	2-9	80.9	82.0	80.4	81.1
Idaho	2-5	3-8	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
Coastal Carolina	1-6	2-9	72.7	74.1	73.4	73.4
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.9	84.6	83.9	84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.2	112.0	112.6	112.6
2	SEC	111.9	110.6	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
5	BIG TEN	108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	99.1	98.7	99.3	99.0
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
11	Sun Belt	83.9	84.6	83.9	84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Arkansas St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	SMU	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Boise St.	Arizona St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Colorado St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	Georgia St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Houston	Northern Illinois
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Temple	Florida Int’l.
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	UAB	Ohio U
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	Wyoming
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	[Duke]	[Iowa St.]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	ARMY	[Marshall]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Troy
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Central Florida	San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	Texas Tech	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	Boston College	[Western Mich.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Kansas St.	Utah
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Florida St.	[UTSA]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	North Carolina St.	Purdue
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Utah St.]	Oregon
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Missouri
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	Navy	Virginia
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Northwestern	Stanford
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	TCU	Washington St.
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Virginia Tech	Kentucky
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Wake Forest	Arizona
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Iowa	[UCLA]
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	New Mexico St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Washington	Ohio St.
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Louisville	South Carolina
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	West Va.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	USC	Penn St.
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Miami (Fla.)	Alabama
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan	LSU
Peach	At-large	At-large	Auburn	Memphis
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Wisconsin	Oklahoma
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Clemson	Georgia
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Oklahoma	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 21-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Kent St.	16.2	16.9	16.6
Eastern Michigan	Bowling Green	17.7	16.8	17.7
Ball St.	Miami (O)	-20.5	-20.5	-21.0
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	11.6	12.9	12.7
TCU	Baylor	24.2	21.2	24.4
Toledo	Western Michigan	7.5	8.1	8.3
Virginia	Virginia Tech	-13.7	-14.2	-13.2
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	1.1	1.8	0.8
Buffalo	Ohio U	-9.4	-8.6	-8.4
Arkansas	Missouri	-7.9	-6.6	-7.6
San Diego St.	New Mexico	20.5	20.7	21.2
Houston	Navy	4.2	3.6	3.9
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	-16.3	-14.9	-15.8
Nebraska	Iowa	-9.3	-9.1	-9.0
Troy	Texas St.	24.9	23.0	25.2
Central Florida	South Florida	6.8	8.8	7.8
Florida Int’l.	Western Kentucky	-2.7	-2.2	-2.7
Texas	Texas Tech	12.5	12.7	13.8
UCLA	California	1.6	3.1	2.6
Cincinnati	Connecticut	2.6	2.6	3.2
Syracuse	Boston College	-1.6	-3.0	-2.2
Rutgers	Michigan St.	-8.2	-9.5	-9.5
Purdue	Indiana	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
Michigan	Ohio St.	-13.6	-11.4	-14.8
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	14.0	14.1	14.7
Wake Forest	Duke	5.9	4.8	7.1
Georgia St.	Appalachian St.	-6.8	-5.8	-6.5
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	4.4	3.6	3.9
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	2.3	2.1	1.3
Kentucky	Louisville	-6.0	-5.9	-7.1
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-13.3	-15.3	-15.0
Maryland	Penn St.	-24.0	-21.5	-24.8
Illinois	Northwestern	-21.9	-20.0	-23.1
Rice	North Texas	-12.7	-12.6	-13.2
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-27.1	-26.5	-28.5
Air Force	Utah St.	-0.3	0.9	-0.3
Marshall	Southern Miss.	8.0	8.3	9.2
Nevada	UNLV	3.8	4.0	4.7
Washington	Washington St.	11.8	11.8	12.1
San Jose St.	Wyoming	-26.8	-25.4	-27.0
Utah	Colorado	2.7	4.6	4.7
Louisiana-Monroe	Arkansas St.	-8.3	-8.7	-10.3
Middle Tennessee	Old Dominion	6.9	5.8	7.7
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-19.4	-16.0	-19.2
Stanford	Notre Dame	5.3	4.8	4.3
South Carolina	Clemson	-18.2	-16.7	-18.4
LSU	Texas A&M	11.2	11.1	12.2
Fresno St.	Boise St.	-8.2	-7.7	-8.0
SMU	Tulane	6.9	7.1	6.8
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	41.7	37.8	43.5
Arizona St.	Arizona	0.6	1.2	1.3
Oklahoma	West Virginia	18.4	16.8	19.0
Oregon	Oregon St.	16.6	14.9	17.3
New Mexico St.	Idaho	9.9	7.5	9.1
Louisiana-Lafayette	Georgia Southern	8.3	7.9	9.0
Tulsa	Temple	5.1	3.9	4.7
Louisiana Tech	UTSA	-0.2	-0.5	-0.5
Memphis	East Carolina	27.0	24.9	27.7
UAB	UTEP	16.1	13.1	17.8
Auburn	Alabama	-7.3	-5.9	-6.0
Florida	Florida St.	-8.9	-8.4	-7.9
Hawaii	BYU	-3.4	-2.2	-3.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Retro Rankings

Based on what the teams have done for the entire season and not forward looking

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Miami (Fla)
3	Clemson
4	Wisconsin
5	Oklahoma
6	Georgia
7	Ohio St.
8	Central Florida
9	Notre Dame
10	Penn St.
11	Auburn
12	USC
13	TCU
14	Washington
15	Mississippi St.
16	Virginia Tech
17	Washington St.
18	Michigan
19	Oklahoma St.
20	Memphis
21	Michigan St.
22	Stanford
23	Northwestern
24	North Carolina St.
25	Boise St.
26	LSU
27	Wake Forest
28	Iowa St.
29	Iowa
30	South Florida
31	South Carolina
32	Boston College
33	Texas A&M
34	Louisville
35	Toledo
36	San Diego St.
37	Texas
38	Florida Atlantic
39	Oregon
40	Georgia Tech
41	West Virginia
42	Arizona
43	Navy
44	Florida St.
45	Arizona St.
46	Purdue
47	Kentucky
48	Northern Illinois
49	Missouri
50	Fresno St.
51	Kansas St.
52	Indiana
53	UCLA
54	Troy
55	Houston
56	Army
57	Ohio
58	Texas Tech
59	Virginia
60	SMU
61	Utah
62	California
63	North Texas
64	Duke
65	Florida
66	Wyoming
67	Syracuse
68	Maryland
69	Minnesota
70	Marshall
71	Ole Miss
72	Colorado
73	Western Michigan
74	Nebraska
75	Colorado St.
76	Central Michigan
77	Tulane
78	Pittsburgh
79	Utah St.
80	Arkansas St.
81	Temple
82	Tennessee
83	Akron
84	Arkansas
85	Southern Miss.
86	Florida Int’l.
87	Appalachian St.
88	North Carolina
89	Rutgers
90	UAB
91	Vanderbilt
92	UTSA
93	Georgia St.
94	Eastern Michigan
95	Buffalo
96	Air Force
97	Western Kentucky
98	Louisiana Tech
99	Middle Tennessee
100	Miami (O)
101	UNLV
102	Tulsa
103	Cincinnati
104	Connecticut
105	East Carolina
106	Massachusetts
107	Old Dominion
108	UL-Monroe
109	UL-Lafayette
110	New Mexico St.
111	Baylor
112	South Alabama
113	Illinois
114	BYU
115	Nevada
116	New Mexico
117	Idaho
118	Oregon St.
119	Bowling Green
120	Hawaii
121	Kent St.
122	Kansas
123	Coastal Carolina
124	Georgia Southern
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

PiRate Ratings For This Week

Forward Looking Predictive Ratings totally unrelated to rankings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	137.9	134.3	136.7	136.3
2	Ohio St.	132.2	129.9	132.6	131.6
3	Auburn	128.5	126.4	128.8	127.9
4	Clemson	128.6	126.1	128.1	127.6
5	Georgia	126.2	126.1	126.5	126.3
6	Oklahoma	125.1	123.9	125.9	125.0
7	Penn St.	125.2	124.1	125.5	124.9
8	Miami	125.4	123.7	124.6	124.6
9	Washington	125.0	122.9	124.9	124.3
10	Wisconsin	124.2	121.7	123.1	123.0
11	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
12	T C U	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
13	U S C	119.4	118.6	119.0	119.0
14	Stanford	119.6	118.0	118.8	118.8
15	Virginia Tech	118.8	118.2	118.6	118.5
16	L S U	117.7	115.5	118.0	117.1
17	Notre Dame	117.3	116.2	117.6	117.0
18	Florida St.	116.7	115.8	115.2	115.9
19	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
20	Louisville	115.8	114.9	115.6	115.4
21	Michigan	115.6	115.5	114.8	115.3
22	Central Florida	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
23	Washington St.	115.2	113.0	114.8	114.3
24	Mississippi St.	114.3	114.3	114.2	114.3
25	Texas	113.9	114.0	114.6	114.2
26	Northwestern	114.0	112.9	114.0	113.6
27	Wake Forest	113.5	111.6	113.7	112.9
28	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
29	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
30	Iowa	110.9	111.2	110.1	110.8
31	Georgia Tech	111.9	109.8	110.5	110.7
32	Memphis	110.0	109.2	110.8	110.0
33	West Virginia	109.6	110.1	109.9	109.9
34	Boston College	109.7	109.6	109.6	109.6
35	Missouri	109.7	107.8	109.1	108.9
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Texas A&M	109.5	107.4	108.8	108.6
38	Duke	109.1	108.3	108.1	108.5
39	S. Carolina	108.9	107.9	108.1	108.3
40	Oregon	108.7	106.7	108.0	107.8
41	Kentucky	108.3	107.5	107.0	107.6
42	Boise St.	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
43	Arizona	107.3	105.9	106.3	106.5
44	Indiana	106.3	106.3	106.8	106.5
45	Utah	106.2	106.6	106.2	106.3
46	Arizona St.	106.5	105.5	106.1	106.0
47	Florida	106.3	105.9	105.8	106.0
48	Pittsburgh	106.1	105.8	105.8	105.9
49	Michigan St.	104.9	105.8	105.9	105.5
50	Colorado	106.5	105.1	104.5	105.3
51	Purdue	104.6	104.6	105.0	104.7
52	Syracuse	105.1	103.6	104.4	104.4
53	California	105.4	103.2	103.8	104.1
54	Ole Miss	104.7	103.4	103.5	103.9
55	U C L A	104.0	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Texas Tech	103.4	103.3	102.9	103.2
57	Virginia	103.0	102.0	103.3	102.8
58	San Diego St.	102.2	102.2	103.3	102.6
59	Toledo	101.9	101.9	103.7	102.5
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Houston	101.9	101.7	101.9	101.8
62	Minnesota	101.8	102.7	100.9	101.8
63	Navy	100.7	101.2	101.0	100.9
64	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
65	Florida Atlantic	99.3	101.0	101.0	100.4
66	Army	99.5	99.5	99.8	99.6
67	Tennessee	99.9	98.3	98.1	98.8
68	Ohio U	98.0	99.4	98.9	98.8
69	Wyoming	99.3	98.2	98.6	98.7
70	Nebraska	98.6	99.1	98.1	98.6
71	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
72	Maryland	98.3	99.6	97.7	98.5
73	Arkansas	98.8	98.1	98.5	98.5
74	SMU	97.8	98.3	98.1	98.1
75	Vanderbilt	98.5	97.7	97.2	97.8
76	Western Michigan	97.5	96.7	98.4	97.5
77	Fresno St.	96.7	95.7	97.3	96.6
78	Northern Illinois	96.1	95.9	97.2	96.4
79	Eastern Michigan	95.7	95.8	96.1	95.9
80	Tulsa	95.9	95.4	95.7	95.7
81	Troy	95.5	95.7	95.1	95.4
82	Central Michigan	94.7	95.1	95.5	95.1
83	Arkansas St.	94.3	95.5	95.5	95.1
84	Utah St.	95.3	94.4	95.1	94.9
85	Tulane	93.9	94.1	94.3	94.1
86	Temple	93.8	94.5	94.0	94.1
87	Oregon St.	94.1	93.9	92.6	93.5
88	Rutgers	93.7	93.4	93.4	93.5
89	Appalachian St.	93.6	92.4	93.4	93.1
90	Marshall	91.7	93.0	93.3	92.7
91	Air Force	91.9	92.4	91.8	92.0
92	W. Kentucky	90.4	90.6	91.1	90.7
93	Massachusetts	90.5	89.7	90.8	90.3
94	U T S A	89.2	91.4	90.2	90.2
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Nevada	88.7	90.4	89.8	89.6
97	Illinois	89.5	90.5	88.5	89.5
98	BYU	89.6	89.5	89.3	89.4
99	Akron	87.9	90.0	88.6	88.8
100	N. Texas	87.5	88.8	88.4	88.2
101	Middle Tennessee	86.6	87.7	87.6	87.3
102	Southern Miss.	86.7	87.8	87.2	87.2
103	Buffalo	85.6	87.8	87.5	87.0
104	U N L V	86.4	87.8	86.5	86.9
105	Louisiana Tech	86.0	87.8	86.6	86.8
106	East Carolina	86.0	87.3	86.1	86.5
107	N. Mexico St.	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
108	Florida Int’l.	84.7	85.4	85.3	85.2
109	Connecticut	84.4	86.2	84.6	85.1
110	Cincinnati	84.0	85.8	84.8	84.9
111	New Mexico	84.6	84.5	85.1	84.7
112	UL-Lafayette	84.0	84.9	84.0	84.3
113	Georgia St.	84.3	84.1	84.3	84.3
114	Old Dominion	82.6	85.0	82.9	83.5
115	UL-Monroe	83.0	83.8	82.2	83.0
116	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
117	Hawaii	82.2	83.3	81.7	82.4
118	UAB	81.3	81.2	83.1	81.9
119	S. Alabama	80.7	82.7	80.9	81.4
120	Bowling Green	80.5	81.6	80.8	81.0
121	Idaho	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
122	Georgia Southern	78.6	80.0	78.0	78.9
123	Kent St.	73.7	75.2	74.0	74.3
124	Texas St.	73.6	75.7	72.9	74.1
125	Rice	72.8	74.2	73.2	73.4
126	Coastal Carolina	72.4	73.8	73.1	73.1
127	Charlotte	69.2	71.5	69.4	70.0
128	San Jose St.	69.5	69.8	68.6	69.3
129	U T E P	68.2	71.1	68.3	69.2
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	7-0	10-0	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
South Florida	6-1	9-1	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	3-4	5-6	93.8	94.5	94.0	94.1
East Carolina	2-5	3-8	86.0	87.3	86.1	86.5
Connecticut	2-5	3-8	84.4	86.2	84.6	85.1
Cincinnati	1-6	3-8	84.0	85.8	84.8	84.9
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	6-1	9-1	110.0	109.2	110.8	110.0
Houston	4-3	6-4	101.9	101.7	101.9	101.8
Navy	4-3	6-4	100.7	101.2	101.0	100.9
SMU	3-4	6-5	97.8	98.3	98.1	98.1
Tulsa	1-6	2-9	95.9	95.4	95.7	95.7
Tulane	3-4	5-6	93.9	94.1	94.3	94.1
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	10-1	128.6	126.1	128.1	127.6
Florida St.	3-5	4-6	116.7	115.8	115.2	115.9
N. Carolina St.	5-2	7-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Louisville	4-4	7-4	115.8	114.9	115.6	115.4
Wake Forest	4-3	7-4	113.5	111.6	113.7	112.9
Boston College	3-4	6-5	109.7	109.6	109.6	109.6
Syracuse	2-5	4-7	105.1	103.6	104.4	104.4
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-0	10-0	125.4	123.7	124.6	124.6
Virginia Tech	4-3	8-3	118.8	118.2	118.6	118.5
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-5	111.9	109.8	110.5	110.7
Duke	2-5	5-6	109.1	108.3	108.1	108.5
Pittsburgh	2-5	4-7	106.1	105.8	105.8	105.9
Virginia	3-4	6-5	103.0	102.0	103.3	102.8
N. Carolina	1-6	3-8	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.0	111.9	112.5	112.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	7-1	10-1	125.1	123.9	125.9	125.0
Oklahoma St.	5-3	8-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	6-2	9-2	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
Texas	5-3	6-5	113.9	114.0	114.6	114.2
Iowa State	5-3	7-4	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Kansas St.	4-4	6-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-3	7-4	109.6	110.1	109.9	109.9
Texas Tech	2-6	5-6	103.4	103.3	102.9	103.2
Baylor	1-7	1-10	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-8	1-10	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	7-1	9-2	132.2	129.9	132.6	131.6
Penn St.	6-2	9-2	125.2	124.1	125.5	124.9
Michigan	5-3	8-3	115.6	115.5	114.8	115.3
Indiana	2-6	5-6	106.3	106.3	106.8	106.5
Michigan St.	6-2	8-3	104.9	105.8	105.9	105.5
Maryland	2-6	4-7	98.3	99.6	97.7	98.5
Rutgers	3-5	4-7	93.7	93.4	93.4	93.5
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	8-0	11-0	124.2	121.7	123.1	123.0
Northwestern	6-2	8-3	114.0	112.9	114.0	113.6
Iowa	3-5	6-5	110.9	111.2	110.1	110.8
Purdue	3-5	5-6	104.6	104.6	105.0	104.7
Minnesota	2-6	5-6	101.8	102.7	100.9	101.8
Nebraska	3-5	4-7	98.6	99.1	98.1	98.6
Illinois	0-8	2-9	89.5	90.5	88.5	89.5
Big Ten Averages			108.6	108.4	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	7-0	8-3	99.3	101.0	101.0	100.4
Marshall	4-3	7-4	91.7	93.0	93.3	92.7
W. Kentucky	4-3	6-5	90.4	90.6	91.1	90.7
Middle Tennessee	3-4	5-6	86.6	87.7	87.6	87.3
Florida Int’l.	4-3	6-4	84.7	85.4	85.3	85.2
Old Dominion	3-4	5-6	82.6	85.0	82.9	83.5
Charlotte	1-6	1-10	69.2	71.5	69.4	70.0
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-4	6-4	89.2	91.4	90.2	90.2
N. Texas	6-1	8-3	87.5	88.8	88.4	88.2
Southern Miss.	5-2	7-4	86.7	87.8	87.2	87.2
Louisiana Tech	3-4	5-6	86.0	87.8	86.6	86.8
UAB	5-2	7-4	81.3	81.2	83.1	81.9
Rice	1-6	1-10	72.8	74.2	73.2	73.4
U T E P	0-7	0-11	68.2	71.1	68.3	69.2
CUSA Averages			84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-2	117.3	116.2	117.6	117.0
Army		8-3	99.5	99.5	99.8	99.6
Massachusetts		4-7	90.5	89.7	90.8	90.3
BYU		3-9	89.6	89.5	89.3	89.4
Indep. Averages			99.2	98.7	99.4	99.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-2	8-3	98.0	99.4	98.9	98.8
Miami (O)	3-4	4-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Akron	5-2	6-5	87.9	90.0	88.6	88.8
Buffalo	3-4	5-6	85.6	87.8	87.5	87.0
Bowling Green	2-5	2-9	80.5	81.6	80.8	81.0
Kent St.	1-6	2-9	73.7	75.2	74.0	74.3
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	6-1	9-2	101.9	101.9	103.7	102.5
Western Michigan	4-3	6-5	97.5	96.7	98.4	97.5
Northern Illinois	6-1	8-3	96.1	95.9	97.2	96.4
Eastern Michigan	2-5	4-7	95.7	95.8	96.1	95.9
Central Michigan	5-2	7-4	94.7	95.1	95.5	95.1
Ball St.	0-7	2-9	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-0	9-2	107.9	106.4	108.3	107.5
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-2	7-4	99.3	98.2	98.6	98.7
Utah St.	4-3	6-5	95.3	94.4	95.1	94.9
Air Force	3-4	4-7	91.9	92.4	91.8	92.0
New Mexico	1-6	3-8	84.6	84.5	85.1	84.7
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	5-2	9-2	102.2	102.2	103.3	102.6
Fresno St.	6-1	8-3	96.7	95.7	97.3	96.6
Nevada	2-5	2-9	88.7	90.4	89.8	89.6
U N L V	4-3	5-6	86.4	87.8	86.5	86.9
Hawaii	1-7	3-8	82.2	83.3	81.7	82.4
San Jose St.	0-7	1-11	69.5	69.8	68.6	69.3
MWC Averages			92.2	92.1	92.3	92.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	6-2	9-2	125.0	122.9	124.9	124.3
Stanford	7-2	8-3	119.6	118.0	118.8	118.8
Washington St.	6-2	9-2	115.2	113.0	114.8	114.3
Oregon	3-5	6-5	108.7	106.7	108.0	107.8
California	2-6	5-6	105.4	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-8	1-10	94.1	93.9	92.6	93.5
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	10-2	119.4	118.6	119.0	119.0
Arizona	5-3	7-4	107.3	105.9	106.3	106.5
Utah	2-6	5-6	106.2	106.6	106.2	106.3
Arizona St.	5-3	6-5	106.5	105.5	106.1	106.0
Colorado	2-6	5-6	106.5	105.1	104.5	105.3
U C L A	3-5	5-6	104.0	103.3	103.5	103.6
Pac-12 Averages			109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	10-1	126.2	126.1	126.5	126.3
Missouri	3-4	6-5	109.7	107.8	109.1	108.9
S. Carolina	5-3	8-3	108.9	107.9	108.1	108.3
Kentucky	4-4	7-4	108.3	107.5	107.0	107.6
Florida	3-5	4-6	106.3	105.9	105.8	106.0
Tennessee	0-7	4-7	99.9	98.3	98.1	98.8
Vanderbilt	0-7	4-7	98.5	97.7	97.2	97.8
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-0	11-0	137.9	134.3	136.7	136.3
Auburn	6-1	9-2	128.5	126.4	128.8	127.9
L S U	5-2	8-3	117.7	115.5	118.0	117.1
Mississippi St.	4-3	8-3	114.3	114.3	114.2	114.3
Texas A&M	4-3	7-4	109.5	107.4	108.8	108.6
Ole Miss	2-5	5-6	104.7	103.4	103.5	103.9
Arkansas	1-6	4-7	98.8	98.1	98.5	98.5
SEC Averages			112.1	110.8	111.5	111.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	5-1	8-2	95.5	95.7	95.1	95.4
Arkansas St.	5-1	6-3	94.3	95.5	95.5	95.1
Appalachian St.	5-1	6-4	93.6	92.4	93.4	93.1
N. Mexico St.	2-4	4-6	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
UL-Lafayette	4-2	5-5	84.0	84.9	84.0	84.3
Georgia St.	5-1	6-3	84.3	84.1	84.3	84.3
UL-Monroe	4-3	4-6	83.0	83.8	82.2	83.0
S. Alabama	3-4	4-7	80.7	82.7	80.9	81.4
Idaho	2-4	3-7	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
Georgia Southern	1-5	1-9	78.6	80.0	78.0	78.9
Texas St.	1-6	2-9	73.6	75.7	72.9	74.1
Coastal Carolina	1-6	2-9	72.4	73.8	73.1	73.1
Sun Belt Averages			83.8	84.5	83.8	84.0

Conference Ratings

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.0	111.9	112.5	112.5
2	SEC	112.1	110.8	111.5	111.4
3	BIG 12	109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
5	BIG TEN	108.6	108.4	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	99.2	98.7	99.4	99.1
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.2	92.1	92.3	92.2
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
11	Sun Belt	83.8	84.5	83.8	84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	La. Tech	UL-Lafayette
Cure	AAC	SBC	Houston	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Boise St.	Stanford
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Colorado St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	MAC	SMU	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Utah St.]	Marshall
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	Florida Int’l.	Toledo
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Central Mich.	Wyoming
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	[UAB]	[UNLV]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	ARMY	[Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Akron	Appalachian St.
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Central Florida	San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	[UCLA]	UTSA
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	[Utah]	[Western Mich.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Kansas St.	Arizona
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Florida St.	[Western Ky.]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	Boston College	Iowa
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Southern Miss.]	Oregon
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Missouri
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	Navy	Virginia
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Michigan	Washington
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	Oklahoma St.	Washington St.
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Wake Forest	South Carolina
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Louisville	Arizona St.
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Indiana	Kentucky
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Ohio St.
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	NC St.	Miss. St.
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	West Virginia	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Penn St.	USC
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Clemson	Notre Dame
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan St.	LSU
Peach	At-large	At-large	Memphis	TCU
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Northwestern	Auburn
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Miami (Fla.)	Oklahoma
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Alabama	Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Oklahoma
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Championship Games and Bowl Eligibles By Conference

If you are a fan of a team that will finish 5-6 or 5-7, you can forget your team playing in a bowl with a losing record this season.  In fact, we project two bowl eligible teams to miss out on all the fun this year, as we project 80 teams to be bowl eligible this season.

American Athletic

The UCF-USF winner this week will face Memphis for the conference championship.  It looks like UCF and Memphis will meet in Orlando in a rematch game.  UCF won the first one convincingly, but Memphis is several points better now than then.  The winner of this game almost assuredly plays in the New Year’s Six Bowl as the Group of 5 Representative, and it will more than likely be at the Peach Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy, Houston, SMU)

5-Wins: Temple and Tulane

Temple must win at Tulsa, which is doable but less than 50-50.

Tulane must win at SMU, which is also doable but less than 50-50 and less then Temple’s chances.

Atlantic Coast 

Clemson will play Miami (Fla.) in Charlotte.  The winner has about a 92% chance of gaining a Playoff spot, while the loser will most likely get an Orange Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville, NC St., Boston College, Miami, Va. Tech, Virginia

5-Wins: Georgia Tech and Duke

Georgia Tech would have to pull off the monumental upset of Georgia, which they may have about a 3-5% chance of doing.

Duke must win at Wake Forest, and the Demon Deacons are playing like a top 20 team.  The Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech, so they could be peaking at the right time.

4-Wins: Florida St.

The Seminoles were able to reschedule their cancelled hurricane game with UL-Monroe, and now they can become bowl eligible by beating Florida and ULM.  We believe their chances to get to 6-6 are about 70-75% in their favor.

Big 12

Oklahoma has clinched the top seed in the renewal of the Big 12 Championship Game.  TCU needs to beat Baylor this week to get the number two seed.  If the Horn Frogs croak against the Bears, then Oklahoma St. will get the bid with a win over hapless Kansas.  There is a very remote chance that Iowa St. could still get in, but it would require too many things to take place.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (Oklahoma, TCU, Okla. St., Iowa St., Texas, West Virginia, Kansas St.)

5-Wins: Texas Tech

Texas Tech closes the season at Texas, and we believe the Longhorns will handle the Red Raiders and most likely end the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock.

Big Ten

Wisconsin and Ohio State have clinched their divisions and will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Badgers’ defense may be up to the task to handle an inconsistent Buckeye offense.  If so, UW is Playoff-bound.  A Buckeye win opens the door for a one-loss Miami or one-loss Alabama team to get this bid, or if Miami and Alabama are unbeaten, there will be a big controversy over the #4 seed between a 2-loss Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Notre Dame, and maybe even an undefeated UCF if they win their last two games.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 8) (Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa)

5-Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota.

Indiana and Purdue play for the Old Oaken Bucket and a bowl bid, as the winner will be 6-6.

Minnesota must beat undefeated Wisconsin to finish 6-6.  With the Gophers’ offense struggling, and the Badgers defense peaking, UW could win this won in an ugly fashion in the neighborhood of 20-6.

Conference USA

This conference is going to strike it rich this bowl season with a possible 10 teams playing in December.

First, Florida Atlantic and North Texas will square off in one of the potentially best championship games in this league’s history.  Win or lose, we are hearing from sources that the Boca Raton Bowl would love to invite hometown team FAU.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (guaranteed to have 9) (Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l., Marshall, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA)

5-Wins: Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion play each other in Murfreesboro this week, so the winner will become bowl eligible.

Louisiana Tech hosts UTSA with a slumping offense, and we give the Bulldogs a 70% chance of winning this game and becoming the 10th bowl eligible CUSA team.  There will be slots available possibly for all 10 teams, and it is possible that two CUSA could face off in a bowl.

Independents

Army is 8-3 with the Navy game remaining.  The Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl bound.

Notre Dame actually counts with the ACC teams, so they are part of the ACC package, and we believe the Irish will  be enjoying Oranges this year, but only if they get by Stanford this week,.

Mid-American

Akron beat Ohio to win the Eastern Division title.  The Zips will play Toledo or Northern Illinois.  TU can clinch the Western Division title with a win at home against Western Michigan or a Northern Illinois loss at Central Michigan.  NIU can win if they beat CMU and WMU beats Toledo.

This league will receive an extra bid and possibly two extra bids.  See Below

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Akron, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan)

5-Wins: Buffalo

Buffalo hosts Ohio U this week, and a Bulls win will give them a 6-6 record.  There is a catch.  Buffalo most likely needs Louisiana Tech or Florida State to lose this week to guarantee a decent shot at a bowl.  We have the Bulls as team #79 in a 78-team bowl field.  There is another little possibility that could help Buffalo get over the top ahead of another bowl eligible team.  The MAC has two secondary bowl agreements, with the Quick Lane and the Foster Farms bowls.

Toledo at 10-2 might be attractive enough for the Foster Farms Bowl to invite the Rockets west to face Oregon, Stanford, Washington, or California.  The Quick Lane is most likely going to need a MAC team as well, so Buffalo could sneak in to a bowl through this back door ahead of a 10th CUSA team.

Mountain West

Here is where a conference championship game will not be as exciting as it should be, unless something really interesting takes place this week.  Boise State and Fresno State have clinched berths in the MWC Championship Game, but the two teams close out the regular season facing each other, so it will be an immediate rematch.  The Las Vegas Bowl bid goes to the winner of the second game.  Even if the Conference Champion loses by 50 points this week and wins by 1 next week, that team gets the Las Vegas Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Boise St., Colorado St., Wyoming, Utah St., Fresno St., San Diego St.)

5-Wins: UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels must win their rivalry game against Nevada, and they must do it in Reno.  UNLV has about a 50-50 shot at pulling it off, giving the MWC 7 bowl teams for 5 bowls.  Two at-large slots will be waiting for the 6th and 7th teams.

Pac-12

USC has clinched the South Division, and the Trojans hold a very minute chance of sneaking into the Playoffs.  More than likely, they are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game for a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

The North Division is still up for grabs between Washington State and Stanford.  If Washington State wins the Apple Cup, then the Pirate Mike Leach will have his team in the Championship Game.  If Washington wins, then Stanford takes the treasure away from the Pirate.

The bigger news in the Pac-12 is the firing of UCLA coach Jim Mora, Jr.  The Bruins still have a game to go at home against California, and the winner will be bowl eligible.  UCLA is actually hoping it can win the Chip Kelly Bowl.  Kelly is rumored to be headed to Westwood, but it is not confirmed.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 9) (Washington St., Stanford, Washington, Oregon, USC, Arizona St., Arizona)

5-Win Teams: California, UCLA, Utah, Colorado

Cal plays at UCLA, and the Bears hope they can swim with the Fisch’s.  Jedd Fisch will be UCLA coach for one or two games.

Colorado visits Utah, so the winner of that game will also be bowl eligible.

Look for the Pac-12 to place 2 at-large teams in bowls back east, most likely the two winners this week.

Southeastern

Normally a league with double digit bowl participants, the SEC is only going to have 9 teams playing in the postseason.

Georgia is waiting for the winner of the Iron Bowl to face off in the SEC Championship Game.  Auburn has become the sexy choice to knock off the number one Crimson Tide, but us old Buccaneers believe this just won’t happen.  We have Alabama set to be the top seed in the Playoffs, hosting team number four in the Sugar Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 9 (Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M)

5-Wins: None

Sun Belt

They have 12 teams in this league, but there is no championship game in the SBC.  The Sun Belt is most likely to have extra teams, including team number 80, or the second bowl eligible team left out of all the fun.

There are two weeks left in the SBC regular season, so there are some 4-6 teams still alive in the bowl hunt.

Bowl Eligible: 4 (Troy, Georgia St., Arkansas St., Appalachian St.)

5-Wins: UL-Lafayette

The Ragin’ Cajuns have two games left and need to win just one to most likely get their New Orleans Bowl bid that they always seem to get whenever they are bowl eligible.  ULL hosts 1-9 Georgia Southern this week and should secure their sixth win.  They finish at Appy State, where they are most likely to lose.

4-Wins: UL-Monroe and New Mexico St.

UL-Monroe has less than 0.5% chance of beating Arkansas St. at home this week and then winning at Florida St. the week after.  So, the Warhawks are basically out of the picture.

New Mexico St. has at least a 50-50 chance of finishing the season with wins over Idaho and South Alabama, both games in Las Cruces.  However, the Aggies do not have a great shot at getting into their first bowl since the 1960 Sun Bowl.  NMSU is leaving the Sun Belt and will become an independent next year.  The SBC has a history of being a tad bush league by shunning teams leaving their conference.  The Aggies have already told the league they can only accept bids to bowls close to home, and we believe they will get to spend the holidays very close to home, because they will not be invited to a bowl if they finish 6-6.  Of course, if two from Louisiana Tech, Buffalo, and Florida State lose, and if Duke loses to Wake Forest and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, then the Aggies will get an invitation at 6-6.  Whether or not they accept it, we cannot predict.

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have a festive Thanksgiving holiday.  Don’t let your tummy be the biggest loser this week.  Pace yourself and try to get some exercise.

Our schedule will be a little different this week.  We are putting out our Monday edition today on Sunday.  We will have both the NFL ratings and Money Line picks on Tuesday, and then we will return next Sunday night or Monday morning.

Thank You to all our followers.  You have made 2017 a record year for PiRate Rating readership.  A lot of you came on board back during March Madness, because we were very lucky to successfully pick all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Our basketball coverage will return just after New Year’s, as our ratings need all the teams to play 8 games before they make any sense.