The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 15, 2018

2018 NCAA Division 1 Conference Tournament Schedule

Here is a look at the 32 Division 1 conferences’ tournament schedules.  A few league still have “to be announced starting times.”

America East Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
Tournament Re-seeded after quarterfinals
Top 8 Teams
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA #1 #8 ESPN3
TBA #4 #5 ESPN3
TBA #2 #7 ESPN3
TBA #3 #6 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 6
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA Highest Remaining Lowest Remaining ESPN3
TBA 2nd Highest 3rd Highest ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA Higher Lower ESPN2

Vermont (11-0/21-5) has won 14 games in a row and should be the overwhelming favorite to return to the NCAA Tournament.  The Catamounts are one of the better shooting teams from behind the arc, and they are sneaking good on the boards.  They will not be an easy out for a favored power conference team in the first round.

American Athletic Conference Tournament
Orlando, FL
First 3 Rounds EST/Championship EDT
       
First Round–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM # 8 #9 ESPNU
2:30 PM #5 #12 ESPNU
6:00 PM #7 #10 ESPNU
8:30 PM #6 #11 ESPNU
       
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN2
2:30 PM #4 5 or 12 ESPN2
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPNU
8:30 PM #3 6 or 11 ESPNU
       
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, or 12 CBS
3:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 CBS
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
3:00 PM     CBS

Cincinnati (12-0/23-2) faces three tough regular season  games on their schedule before the AAC Tournament begins.  The Bearcats play at Houston (9-3/19-5) tonight in a game you can see on CBSSN at 7 PM Eastern.  UC looks like a national championship contender.  The Bearcats are number one in the nation in field goal percentage defense and in scoring margin.  The team is one of the quickest teams we have seen in many years, and they plug defensive holes fast enough to give up many decent shots.  Coach Mick Cronin’s forces are better offensively this year, because they just may be the best passing team in college basketball.  The ball moves much quicker through the air than by the dribble, and combining fast player movement with crisp passing makes it hard to contain.  The only question is whether the Bearcats have played a tough enough schedule.  Road games at Houston and Wichita State will give us the answer.

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Washington, DC
First 4 Rounds EST/Championship EDT
       
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #12 #13  
8:30 PM #11 #14  
       
Second Round–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 #9 NBCSN
2:30 PM #5 12 or 13 NBCSN
6:00 PM #7 #10 NBCSN
8:30 PM #6 11 or 14 NBCSN
       
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 NBCSN
2:30 PM #4 5, 12, or 13 NBCSN
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 NBCSN
8:30 PM #3 6, 11, or 14 NBCSN
       
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, 12, or 13 CBSSN
3:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, 11, or 14 CBSSN
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

Rhode Island (13-0/21-3) has secured a bid to the NCAA Tournament with or without the automatic bid.  Should somebody upset the Rams in the A-10 Tournament, there will be an extra A-10 team dancing, which means one bubble will pop.  URI has a 16-game winning streak, and Danny Hurley will become a hot commodity in the coaching wars in late March and April.

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Brooklyn
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #12 #13 ESPN2
2:00 PM #10 #15 ESPN2
7:00 PM #11 #14 ESPNU
       
Second Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 #9 ESPN
2:00 PM #5 12 or 13 ESPN
7:00 PM #7 10 or 15 ESPN2
9:00 PM #6 11 or 14 ESPN2
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN
2:00 PM #4 5, 12, or 13 ESPN
7:00 PM #2 7, 10, or 15 ESPN
9:00 PM #3 6, 11, or 14 ESPN
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, 12, or 13 TBA
9:00 PM 2, 7, 10, or 15 3, 6, 11, or 14 TBA
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:30 PM     ESPN

Virginia (13-1/24-2) lost at home to rival Virginia Tech (7-6/18-8), placing the Hokies many places higher on the Bubble.  This tournament should be up for grabs, because there are many quality teams.  One will get hot and play its best basketball of the season, and that team will earn the automatic bid.  Keep an eye on North Carolina State (7-6/17-9).  First year coach Kevin Keatts proved to be one of the best tournament coaches when he was at UNCW, and his players have played well above their talent levels for him.  Just a tad more improvement, and the Wolf Pack could be dangerous in the Barclay’s Center.

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 26
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA #1 Florida Gulf Coast #8 ESPN3
TBA #4 #5 ESPN3
TBA #2 #7 ESPN3
TBA #3 #6 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA 1 or 8 4 or 5 ESPN3
TBA 2 or 7 3 or 6 ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA     ESPN

Florida Gulf Coast (11-0/20-8) has already secured the top seed and will host every game it plays in the A-Sun Tournament.  This Eagles team is not as strong as the great dunking 2013 team that advanced to the Sweet 16, but it will be a major upset if FGCU loses.

Big 12 Conference Tournament
Kansas City
All Times CST
       
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 #9 ESPNU
8:00 PM #7 #10 ESPNU
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
11:30 AM #4 #5 ESPN2
1:30 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN2
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPNU
8:00 PM #3 #6 ESPNU
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 ESPN2
8:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3 or 6 ESPN2
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM     ESPN

This will be one interesting and exciting tournament.  Except for Iowa State, any of the other nine teams has the ability to win this tournament.  It will be important to finish in the top six to avoid having to play an extra game to win the thing, but even the 7 through 9 seeds will have chances to win four games in four days.  Baylor (6-7/16-10) has won four straight games to move from the cellar to a fifth place tie.  The Bears are the hot team, and their wins at Oklahoma State and Texas plus a home win over Kansas proves that they are good enough to keep winning.  Saturday’s game against front-runner Texas Tech (10-3/22-4) should be one of the best of the weekend.

Big East Conference Tournament
New York City
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #8 #9 FS1
9:30 PM #7 #10 FS1
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 FS1
2:30 PM #4 #5 FS1
7:00 PM #2 7 or 10 FS1
9:30 PM #3 #6 FS1
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM 1, 8,or 9 4 or 5 FS1
9:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3 or 6 FS1
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM     Fox

Villanova (10-3/23-3) dropped from the top of the polls and then dropped from the top of the conference.  Xavier (12-2/24-3) is the hot team, but the Musketeers have eeked out a lot of their wins this year.  Teams that pick up many close wins seldom advance to the Final Four, but it is not impossible.  Xavier pinned one of the losses on Cincinnati, and it is slightly possible that the Final Four could have two teams from the Queen City.

After losing 11 games in a row, St. John’s (3-11/14-13) has won four in a row, including two over top five teams (Duke and Villanova).  Seldom does the last place team look capable of winning a power conference tournament, but there is precedence.  Virginia won the ACC after finishing last in the standings one season in the 1970’s.

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Reno, NV
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 #9 Pluto tv
2:30 PM #5 #12 Pluto tv
5:30 PM #7 #10 Pluto tv
8:00 PM #6 #11 Pluto tv
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 Pluto tv
2:30 PM #4 5 or 12 Pluto tv
5:30 PM #2 7 or 10 Pluto tv
8:00 PM #3 6 or 11 Pluto tv
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, or 12 Pluto tv
8:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 Pluto tv
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM     ESPNU

Three teams have put it together in the month of February, and one of the three should win the tournament.  Montana (13-0/20-5) has won 13 games in a row; Weber St. (10-2/17-7) has won 7 in a row; and Idaho (9-3/17-7) has won 4 in a row.  Montana plays at Idaho on Saturday.

Big South Conference Tournament
1st Round & Championship Game at Higher Seeds
Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 27
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #7 #10 BSN
7:00 PM #8 #9 BSN
BSN TV at http://bigsouthsports.com    
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
1:00 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPN3
3:30 PM #3 #6 ESPN3
7:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 #5 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Home Visitors TV
6:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3 or 6 ESPN3
8:30 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
1:00 PM     ESPN

UNC-Asheville (11-3/18-9) was the preseason pick to win the Big South, but the Bulldogs underachieved through early January.  Since then, UNCA has passed four teams to move to the top of the standings, riding a 7-game winning streak.  Keep an eye on eighth place Charleston Southern (6-8/11-14).  The Buccaneers have won four of five games, and they could easily be 9-9 by the time the tournament starts.  Many of CSU’s losses have been close, including road losses against the top part of the league.  The Bucs are peaking at the right time.

Big Ten Conference Tournament
New York City
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 28
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM #12 #13 Big Ten
7:45 PM #11 #14 Big Ten
       
Second Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 #9 Big Ten
2:15 PM #5 12 or 13 Big Ten
6:30 PM #7 #10 Big Ten
8:45 PM #6 11 or 14 Big Ten
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 5, 12, or 13 Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 7 or 10 Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 6, 11, or 14 Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, 12, or 13 CBS
4:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, 11, or 14 CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

The Big Ten season is ending early this year so the league can stage its conference tournament at Madison Square Garden.  MSG also hosts the Big East Tournament.

The top three teams (Ohio St. 13-1/22-5), Michigan St. (13-2/25-3), and Purdue (12-2/23-4) have separated themselves from the rest of the field and are all safely in the Dance.  Michigan (10-5/21-7) is close to a lock.  There are three or four other teams that will begin the tournament needing multiple wins to have a chance to get into the field.  Nebraska (11-4/20-8) is a victim of the new way of picking at-large teams.  In past years, the Cornhuskers would be a near lock with an 11-4 record in the Big Ten.  With the new quadrant system being used, Nebraska does not have a Quadrant 1 win and not enough Quadrant 2 wins.  The Huskers have three winnable conference games and could be 14-4 in the league and still back on the Bubble, so NU will need to do some damage in the Big Apple.

Big West Conference Tournament
Anaheim, CA
Top 8 Teams Qualify & Tournament Re-seeds for Semifinals
All Times PST
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #2 #7 FSWest
2:30 PM #3 #6 FSWest
6:00 PM #1 #8 FSWest
8:30 PM #4 #5 FSWest
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM Highest Remaining Lowest Remaining TBA
9:00 PM 2nd Highest 3rd Highest TBA
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM     ESPN2

UC-Santa Barbara (8-2/19-5), UC-Irvine (8-3/13-14), UC-Davis (7-4/16-9), Cal State Fullerton (7-4/14-9), and Long Beach St. (7-4/13-14) have stayed bunched together all season, and no team has a great edge over any other.  With the game at the Honda Center in Anaheim, there are basically three home teams in UCI, CSF, and LBSU.  This one is up for grabs.

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
North Charleston, SC
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 #9 CAA TV
8:30 PM #7 #10 CAA TV
       
Quarterfinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 Comcast
2:30 PM #4 #5 Comcast
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 Comcast
8:30 PM #3 #6 Comcast
       
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 CBSSN
8:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3 or 6 CBSSN
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     CBSSN

In the late 1990’s John Kresse took College of Charleston to multiple NCAA Tournaments.  The Cougars (11-3/20-6) have not been to the Big Dance since, but this looks like the most promising year this century for C of C.  The Cougars are strong in the backcourt and have a beefy forward in Jarrell Brantley.

Conference USA Tournament
Frisco, TX
Top 12 Teams Qualify
All Times CST
       
Note: This facility splits into two separate courts until the semifinals
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 #9 TBA
6:30 PM #5 #12 TBA
8:30 PM #7 #10 TBA
9:00 PM #6 #11 TBA
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 8 or 9 Stadium
6:30 PM #4 5 or 12 Stadium
8:30 PM #2 7 or 10 Stadium
9:00 PM #3 6 or 11 Stadium
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:30 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, or 12 CBSSN
3:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 CBSSN
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:30 PM     CBSSN

Middle Tennessee (12-1/20-5) will be the favorite, but the Blue Raiders will not waltz to an easy three-peat in CUSA.  The tournament has been moved to the North Dallas suburbs, where it will be played on the Cowboys’ practice facility.  The football field will be split into two courts so that two games can be played at a time (women’s tournament will also be there simultaneously).

The next three best teams, Western Kentucky (10-2/18-7), Old Dominion (10-2/19-5), and Marshall (8-4/17-8) have very little chance of sniffing an at-large bid.  WKU may have a slight chance, but realistically the Hilltoppers need to win out in the regular season and make it to the finals before their at-large hopes would be legitimate.

It’s the tier below these top four that should concern Middle Tennessee the most.  North Texas (7-5/14-11) is virtually a home team in the conference tournament.  UTSA (7-5/14-11) has improved by 10 points since December.  UAB (7-6/16-10) has not yet played up to its talent level, which means the Blazers could peak at tournament time.

Horizon League Tournament
Detroit (Motor City Madness)
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM #7 #10 ESPN3
8:00 PM #8 #9 ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
5:30 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPN3
8:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN3
       
       
Quarterfinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #3 #6 ESPN3
7:30 PM #4 #5 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 ESPNU
9:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3 or 6 ESPNU
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

Northern Kentucky (12-2/19-7) and Wright St. (11-3/19-8) have flip-flopped between first and second place all year.  Northern Kentucky is the defending conference champions, and the Norse were the overwhelming favorite to repeat this year.

There are a couple more teams to consider in this tournament.  UIC (10-4/15-12) has quietly moved into third following a 7-game winning streak, and the top two teams still must visit UIC Pavilion.  Oakland (8-6/16-11) has a powerful, up-tempo offense, which is not all that consistent.  When consistent, the Golden Grizzlies have the ability to beat any league opponent.  Oakland won by 13 at NKU.

Ivy League Tournament
Philadelphia (Ivy Madness)
Top 4 Teams Qualify
Semifinals EST Championship Game EDT
       
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:30 PM #1 #4 ESPNU
3:00 PM #2 #3 ESPN2
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM     ESPN2

Penn (7-1/17-7) and Harvard (7-1/12-11) have secured half of the spots in the field of four that will square off at the Palestra.  The Quakers will have the home court advantage.

The other two spots are still very much up for grabs with five teams competing and six conference games remaining.  This is a down year for the Ivy, and the winner of the tournament will most likely face a #1 seed in the first round if not forced to go to Dayton for the First Four.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM # 8 #9 ESPN3
7:00 PM #7 #10 ESPN3
9:00 PM #6 #11 ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #3 6 or 11 ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 #5 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 ESPN3
9:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

This is a league in transition, as its previous top teams have settled back in the pack.  The current top three in the standings are the three teams playing their best ball in February, and we would tend to believe that one of the trio will win the automatic bid.  Those three teams are: Rider (12-2/19-7), Canisius (12-2/18-9), and Niagara (10-4/17-10).  For Rider and Canisius, it was the mid 1990’s when they were in the NCAA Tournament, while Niagara went in 2007.

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Cleveland (First Round at Higher Seeds)
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 5
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA #8 #9 TBA
TBA #5 #12 TBA
TBA #7 #10 TBA
TBA #6 #11 TBA
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 5 or 12 ESPN3
6:30 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPN3
9:00 PM #3 6 or 11 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, or 12 CBSSN
9:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 See *
* This game will be available at cbssports.com
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

Buffalo (11-2/19-7) looked like the clear-cut favorite until the last week or so, and now the Bulls have stiff competition from Toledo (11-2/19-7).  However, historically, the MAC Tournament has seen an abnormally large number of surprises.  We don’t expect it to be any different this year.  Central Michigan (5-8/16-10) has disappointed this year, as their talent level is better than their results so far.  The Chippewas are a very longshot to win the tournament, but it would not surprise us if CMU looks much stronger in Cleveland–if they get there.

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Norfolk, VA
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 #13 ESPN3
9:00 PM #5 #12 ESPN3
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM #8 #9 ESPN3
6:30 PM #6 #11 ESPN3
9:00 PM #7 #10 ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #3 6 or 11 ESPN3
8:00 PM 4 or 13 5 or 12 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, 12, or 13 ESPN3
8:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     ESPN2

The winner of this conference may be forced to go to the First Four round in Dayton, but there is one team from this league that no other 16-seed wants to see in Dayton.  Savannah State (10-1/13-13) is the most up-tempo team in Division 1.  Watching the Tigers play is the closest thing to watching UNLV play in the 1970’s (not like Loyola Marymount under Paul Westhead.)  Former Georgetown great Horace Broadnax has had a total change in coaching paradigm in the last two years.  He used to coach like his mentor John Thompson, emphasizing defense and patient offense.  Now, Broadnax’s Tigers play like a Mike D’Antoni-coached team.  There is little need for a shot-clock in SSU games.  The Tigers average better than 84 possessions per game.  They take more than 73 field goal attempts per game.  They force more than 18 turnovers per game and average close to 10 steals per game, and they score 86.5 points per game.  If it weren’t for an inability to rebound, we would have SSU on our list of low majors with a legitimate chance to upset a power team in the Round of 64.  If they get to the NCAA Tournament and advance past the First Four, they will be forced to play somebody like Virginia, Villanova, or Cincinnati, and they don’t have the muscle to pull off the biggest upset in the history of the Dance.  However, if they get there, you will want to watch them play.

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 #9 MVC TV
8:30 PM #7 #10 MVC TV
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 MVC TV
2:30 PM #4 #5 MVC TV
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 MVC TV
8:30 PM #3 #6 MVC TV
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 CBSSN
5:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3 or 6 CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

With Wichita State now in the AAC, it figured that the Valley race would be wide open.  While it still may be so, it sure looks like Loyola (Chi.) (12-3/22-5) is doing its best to return to glory.  The Ramblers won it all in 1963, and they have only been back to the NCAA Tournament one time since legendary coach George Ireland retired in the late 1960’s.  Southern Illinois (10-5/18-10) was a national joke a few years ago when Coach Barry Hinson went on one of the most famous rants in coaching history, and ESPN featured it for two days.  Hinson has never taken a team to the NCAA Tournament in 17 years as a head coach.

Mountain West Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
11:00 AM # 8 #9 Stadium
1:30 PM #7 #10 Stadium
4:00 PM #6 #11 Stadium
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 CBSSN
2:30 PM #4 #5 CBSSN
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 CBSSN
8:30 PM #3 6 or 11 CBSSN
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 CBSSN
8:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 CBSSN
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
3:00 PM     CBS

In our opinion, Eric Musselman should be the National Coach of the Year.  His Nevada Wolfpack (11-2/22-5) has 10 transfers on the roster.  Musselman inherited a 22-game loser in Reno when he arrived three years ago and immediately turned the program around, going 24-14 and winning the CBI Tournament.  He won both the regular season and conference tournament last year, but Nevada quickly got behind by double digits against Iowa State in the first round and went home after one game.

This year, Nevada has the tools to do some damage in the tournament.  They are most likely going back as an at-large team if they do not win the automatic bid.

Boise State (10-4/20-6) is worthy of making the tournament even if the Broncos cannot top Nevada for the conference tournament title.  Former Mark Few assistant Leon Rice has built the BSU program up to where it is now on par with the football program.  Rice could be in line for a pay raise and a relocation to a power conference school.

Northeast Conference Tournament
All Games at Higher Seed
Top 8 Teams Qualify and Tournament Re-seeds after Quarterfinals
All Times EST
       
Quarterfinals–February 28
Time Home Team Visitors TV
TBA #1 #8 NEC *
TBA #2 #7 NEC *
TBA #3 #6 NEC *
TBA #4 #5 NEC *
* NEC Front Row at http://necfrontrow.com/
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Home Team Visitors TV
12:00 PM Highest Remaining Lowest Remaining ESPN3
2:00 PM 2nd Highest 3rd Highest ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

The NEC is a candidate for placing its automatic qualifier in a First Four game.  No league team this year has enough force to do any damage in the NCAA Tournament.  First place Wagner (11-3/18-7) is not much of a favorite to win the NEC Tournament.  The Seahawks’ three conference losses came to teams in the lower half of the standings.

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Evansville, IN
Top 8 Teams Qualify, Southeast Missouri ineligible due to low APR Scores
All Times CST
       
First Round–February 28
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #5 #8 OVC
8:30 PM #6 #7 OVC
OVC Network at http://www.ovcdigitalnetwork.com/watch
       
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 5 or 8 OVC
8:30 PM #3 6 or 7 OVC
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 4, 5, or 8 ESPNU
9:00 PM #2 3, 6, or 7 ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament is set up so that the top two seeds have large advantages over the rest of the field.  The top two start in the semifinals and only have to win twice to earn the automatic bid.

It also severely handicaps the rest of the field when the top two are considerably better than the rest of the field.  Murray State (12-2/20-5) and Belmont (12-2/20-7) have dominated the league for years, and both are capable of knocking off a favored opponent in the opening round.

The tournament has moved away from Nashville to Evansville, Indiana, so Belmont will not have a home town advantage.  Murray, Kentucky, is an easy drive from Evansville, but then so is Nashville.  It should make for a grand finale if the Racers and Bruins meet for all the marbles.

Pacific 12 Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM # 8 #9 Pac12
2:30 PM #5 #12 Pac12
6:00 PM #7 #10 Pac12
8:30 PM #6 #11 Pac12
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 Pac12
2:30 PM #4 5 or 12 Pac12
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 Pac12
8:30 PM #3 6 or 11 FS1
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, or 12 Pac12
8:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 FS1
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     FS1

The Pac-12 may not be the best conference in the West this year.  The best four teams, maybe five teams, out West are not from the Pac-12.  Arizona (10-3/20-6) may not be as strong as Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Nevada, Boise State, and maybe New Mexico State.  So, it figures that the league will send a minimum number of teams to the Big Dance, maybe just two or three.

Arizona State (7-6/19-6) was once a lock for the NCAA Tournament, and the Sun Devils will most likely make it into the field because of the new criteria, where the way a team ends the season is not considered at all.  Wins over Kansas, Kansas State, and Xavier should be enough to get Bobby Hurley’s team into the field, where you can bet they will be placed in position to play Rhode Island in the first or second game, and the Committee will claim it was purely coincidental.

The Arizona rivals face off in Tempe tonight, and it should be one worth watching.  Tune in to ESPN at 9:00 PM Eastern.

USC, Oregon, and Washington still have work to do to make it into the field, while Utah, Colorado, and Stanford are probably looking at only an automatic bid as a means of Dancing.

Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
       
First Round–February 27
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA #7 #10 Stadium
TBA #8 #9 Stadium
       
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA #1 Bucknell 8 or 9 Stadium
TBA #4 #5 Stadium
TBA #2 7 or 10 Stadium
TBA #3 #6 Stadium
       
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA 1 or 8 4 or 5 CBSSN
TBA 2 or 7 3 or 6 CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA     CBSSN

Bucknell (13-2/19-9) secured the top seed this past weekend, so the Bison will host any game they play in the Pat Tourney.  One of their two league defeats came at home, so it is possible that they could be upset, but not very likely.

Southeastern Conference Tournament
St. Louis
First 4 Rounds CST, Championship Game CDT
       
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #12 #13 SECTV
8:30 PM #11 #14 SECTV
       
Second Round–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 #9 SECTV
2:30 PM #5 12 or 13 SECTV
6:00 PM #7 #10 SECTV
8:30 PM #6 11 or 14 SECTV
       
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN
2:30 PM #4 5, 12, or 13 ESPN
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 SECTV
8:30 PM #3 6, 11, or 14 SECTV
       
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, 12, or 13 ESPN
2:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, 11, or 14 ESPN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM     ESPN

There will be a double dose of Arch Madness this year, as the SEC moves its tournament to St. Louis.  It happens to coincide with the return to power of Missouri (8-5/18-8), and the Tigers’ fans may rival those from the Bluegrass.  Coach Cuonzo Martin was born just across the river, and he will have a loyal following as Mizzou has to be considered a co-favorite to win the conference tournament.  Now, if Michael Porter can suit up and play any amount of meaningful minutes, Missouri will become the odds-on favorite to win the tournament.

Auburn (11-2/23-3) will win the regular season title, while Tennessee (9-4/19-6) will most likely finish second, but the PiRates do not believe either team’s style of play and talent can win three games in three days.  If Missouri doesn’t win the tournament, it could be Alabama (8-5/17-9), a team with tough defense and enough offense to win three times in three days.

Of course, there are Florida (8-5/17-9) and Kentucky (6-7/17-9).  Who would ever count out either team with the incredible talent on both rosters?  It would not be a surprise if one or both peaked at the right time.

Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 #9 ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 #10 ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 #5 ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 #6 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 ESPN3
6:30 PM 2, 7, or 10 3 or 6 ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM     ESPN2

This looks like a two-team race.  East Tennessee (13-1/22-5) was cruising along with the nation’s best winning streak at 16, before they crashed and burned at UNC-Greensboro (11-2/20-6).  If anybody else wins the automatic bid, it is going to be a quick one and done.  Both ETSU and UNCG have the talent to win an opening round game.  ETSU has the strong front court, while UNCG has a fantastic press defense.

Southland Conference Tournament
Katy, TX
Top 8 Teams Qualify
All Times CST
       
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #5 #8 ESPN3
7:30 PM #6 #7 ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #4 5 or 8 ESPN3
7:30 PM #3 6 or 7 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #1 4, 5, or 8 ESPN3
7:30 PM #2 3, 6, or 7 ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:00 PM     ESPN2

This is no longer Stephen F. Austin (10-3/21-5) and the 7 Dwarfs.  The Lumberjacks may very well win the conference tournament again this year, but they won’t just show up and receive the trophy.

Nicholls State (11-2/17-9) and Southeast Louisiana (11-3/17-10) rank ahead of SFA at the moment, and Sam Houston State (10-4/16-11) and New Orleans (10-4/13-12) are bunched up in a tight race.  None of the contenders have exceptionally strong resumes, so this league could be staring at a 16-seed in the tourney.

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
First Round at Higher Seed, Semifinal and Final Round in Houston
Grambling and Alabama A&M are ineligible due to low APR Scores
All Times CST
       
Quarterfinals–March 6
Time Home Visitors TV
TBA #1 #8 TBA
TBA #4 #5 TBA
TBA #2 #7 TBA
TBA #3 #6 TBA
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM 1 or 8 4 or 5 TBA
8:30 PM 2 or 7 3 or 6 TBA
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
3:00 PM     ESPN2

It hurts that the best team, Grambling (10-3/14-12) in the league is ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament.  The other nine teams have losing records, so the winner of this conference tournament will almost assuredly be playing in Dayton in the First Four round.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-4/9-18) went 0-14 outside of the SWAC, yet the Lions could be the favorite to win the tournament.  Southern (8-5/12-14) and Alabama St. (6-6/6-18) are actually the two hottest teams at the moment.

Summit League Tournament
Sioux Falls, MS
All Times CST
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 #8 MidcoSN
8:30 PM #2 #7 MidcoSN
       
Quarterfinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #4 #5 MidcoSN
8:30 PM #3 #6 MidcoSN
       
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM 1 or 8 4 or 5 MidcoSN
8:30 PM 2 or 7 3 or 6 MidcoSN
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:00 PM     ESPN2

The top two teams will send a lot of fans to Sioux Falls to make their games feel like home games.  South Dakota State (10-1/22-6) and South Dakota (10-2/23-6) have to be considered prohibitive co-favorites, but we will keep a careful eye on Fort Wayne (6-6/17-12).  The Mastodons are like the Boston Red Sox during the Ted Williams days.  You know they are going to score, score, score with a powerful offense, but you never know if they are going to give up too many to the opponent.  If you saw the second half of Fort Wayne’s two-point loss at SDSU, you know that when this team puts it all together, they can beat any team in the Summit.  Indiana coach Archie Miller will tell you how talented these guys are.  The question is, will they ever put it all together for three consecutive days?

Sun Belt Conference Tournament
New Orleans
First 3 Rounds CST, Championship Game CDT
       
First Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
11:30 AM # 8 #9 ESPN3
2:00 PM #5 #12 ESPN3
5:00 PM #7 #10 ESPN3
7:30 PM #6 #11 ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
11:30 AM #1 8 or 9 ESPN3
2:00 PM #4 5 or 12 ESPN3
5:00 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPN3
7:30 PM #3 6 or 11 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
11:30 AM 1, 8, or 9 4, 5, or 12 ESPN3
2:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3, 6, or 11 ESPN3
       
Championship–March 11
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     ESPN2

A month ago, this tournament looked like a mere formality where the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (11-1/21-4) would party in New Orleans.  As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast my friends.”  From almost out of nowhere, Georgia State (10-3/19-7).  A recent 10-game winning streak, which included a 14-point trouncing of ULL, brought GSU to within a game of first place.

West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 #9 The W
8:00 PM #7 #10 The W
The W at: http://www.wccsports.com/ot/upcoming-events.html
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #3 #6 The W
3:00 PM #4 #5 The W
7:00 PM #1 8 or 9 ESPN2
9:00 PM #2 7 or 10 ESPN2
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM 1, 8, or 9 4 or 5 ESPN
8:00 PM 2, 7, or 10 3 or 6 ESPN2
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM     ESPN

We know about the top two teams, as they are always in contention for an NCAA bid every year.  Gonzaga (13-1/23-4) is no longer a mid-major team.  Once you make it to within a couple minutes of a national championship, you deserve the ranks to join teams from the past like UNLV, Marquette, Jacksonville, and UTEP that came to national prominence from out of nowhere.

Saint Mary’s (13-1/24-3) is not that far behind Gonzaga.  With Jock Londale in the post, they may have the top center in the nation.  SMU should get into the Dance as an at-large if they do not win the automatic bid.

Now, the question is can a third team earn a bubble-busting spot by beating both of the league powers?  BYU (9-5/20-7) certainly has the talent to get hot and run the table at Orleans Arena.  The Cougars can be tough to match up with, especially when they get their running game going.

Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Home Visitors TV
12:00 PM #3 #6 ESPN3
2:30 PM #2 #7 ESPN3
6:00 PM #1 #8 ESPN3
8:30 PM #4 #5 ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM 3 or 6 2 or 7 ESPN3
8:30 PM 1 or 8 4 or 5 ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPNU

This is a league with one really good team and three or four average teams that have the capability to sneak into the tournament title.  It would be ashamed for this league if New Mexico State (9-0/22-3) were to be upset in the tournament and end up as a 1-seed in the NIT.  The Aggies may have their best team in Las Cruces since Lou Henson took the 1970 team to the Final Four.  Coach Chris Jans has been rebuilding his reputation, and after a stint as Gregg Marshall’s assistant at Wichita State, he has made a strong comeback in his first year at NMSU.  He may be able to set up a long dynasty in the WAC.

Before you think that the Aggies will go through the motions and win the league title, there are four other decent teams that can beat them.  Seattle (6-3/17-9) and Utah Valley (6-3/17-8) are tied for second, but we believe that Grand Canyon (6-4/17-9) may be the team that best has the tools to upset NMSU.  The Antelopes are coached by former NBA tough man, Dan Majerle, and his teams are an extension of his hustle.

 

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November 30, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for December 1-2, 2017 (with 10-point teasers)

For those of you still following this weekly feature, we’ll buy and read your book you will write dealing with masochism.  This has been a lousy year for the PiRate Picks.  This week, there are not enough college games to put together many Money Line parlays, so we are dusting off and bringing out of mothballs our former claim to fame to give us 4 plays–10-point teasers.

For those of you who are not wise to a 10-point teaser, this type of play allows the player to move the point spread or totals number by 10 points in either direction and then play a parlay at certain odds.  We like to combine either 3 teams at -110 or 4 teams at +136 odds, and this week, we have two 4-game parlays at +136.

Thus, a winning week can be had with a 2-2 record, and at 3-1, it can be a very profitable week.  At 4-0, we get out of the red and into the black.  At 1-3 or 0-4, we take more Maalox.

Remember this most important aspect to this weekly feature–all our picks are just for fun, and we never wager real coin or currency or Bitcoins on these picks. We suggest you do the same as well.

#1 @ +273  
Must Win Must Lose
USC Stanford
New Mexico St. South Alabama
Clemson Miami
Oklahoma TCU

 

#2 @ +230  
Must Win Must Lose
Wisconsin Ohio St.

 

#3 10-point teaser +136  
Clemson Miami Under 57
Wisconsin Ohio St. Under 62
Florida St. UL-Monroe Under 75
Oklahoma TCU Under 73.5

 

#4 10-point teaser +136  
Stanford USC Under 69
Florida Atlantic North Texas Under 84
Central Florida Memphis Under 92
Auburn Georgia Under 58

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 20, 2017

2017 Big Ten Preview

We kick off our Power 5 Conference previews today with the Big Ten Conference. While the Big Ten is our lowest rated Power 5 league to begin the season, the margin is miniscule. The number two through five leagues are separated by three points. What hurts the Big Ten is that four teams are below the norm among the entire 130 FBS roster. The other Power 5 leagues have 0, 1, or 2.

Most of the nation’s professional media have Ohio State as the overwhelming pick to win the league, and the PiRates believe the Buckeyes are the clear-cut favorite. However, Ohio State will face very stiff competition from Penn State again this season. The two teams are heavily loaded with talent, and the loser of this game could very well finish the regular season at 11-1 and have a small chance to earn a Playoff bid. The two teams square off in Columbus on October 28.

Michigan is looking at a major rebuilding project with the loss of 10 defensive starters. Having just five starters back on offense isn’t a picnic either, and Coach Jim Harbaugh has an opening game with Florida looming. The next three could come in any order, as Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan State are decent but not great teams. Two of this trio should become bowl-eligible.

The West will once again be competitive this year. Last year, five teams competed for the flag, and the same five should be involved in a hotly contested race this season. Wisconsin begins the year as the highest-rated team, but Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska are all capable of topping the Badgers. The race could end in a multiple-team tie, and 7-2 could even win the division outright yet again.

Jeff Brohm is the new ingredient in the Midwestern cocktail. He takes over a moribund Purdue program and promises to bring excitement to West Lafayette. Purdue has not been a factor for several years now, but the Boilermakers have a storied history as an exciting and innovative program that has pulled off big upsets. Brohm doesn’t have a lot of quality talent to work with in year one, but it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if the Boilermakers ruined a Saturday for a contending team.

Here is how the Big Ten media voted in the preseason poll.

Big Ten–East Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Ohio St. 34 260 29
2 Penn St. 7 231.5 4
3 Michigan 1 192 1
4 Michigan St. 0 128 0
5 Indiana 0 114 0
6 Maryland 0 100.5 0
7 Rutgers 0 38 0
         
Big Ten–West Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Wisconsin 31 259 4
2 Northwestern 5 219 0
3 Nebraska 2 176.5 0
4 Iowa 0 164.5 0
5 Minnesota 0 131 0
6t Purdue 0 57 0
6t Illinois 0 57 0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings are in close step with the media.

Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1

And, here are our not-so-scientific predictions for won-loss and bowl projections.

Big Ten Conference Projected Standings
Team Conference Overall Bowl
East Division      
Ohio St. 9-0 13-0 ***PLAYOFFS***
Penn St. 8-1 11-1 Cotton
Michigan 6-3 9-3 Outback
Indiana 3-6 6-6 Quick Lane
Maryland 2-7 4-8  
Michigan St. 2-7 4-8  
Rutgers 2-7 4-8  
       
Team Conference Overall Bowl
West Division      
Wisconsin 8-1 11-2 Citrus
Northwestern 6-3 9-3 Taxslayer
Minnesota 6-3 8-4 Foster Farms
Nebraska 5-4 7-5 Pinstripe
Iowa 4-5 7-5 Holiday
Purdue 1-8 2-10  
Illinois 1-8 2-10  
       
Ohio St. to win Big Ten Championship Game
No Big Ten team available for Armed Forces Bowl

 

Trivia: We are going to keep the previous trivia question open for a day or so. If you missed it, here it is again.
In 1918, Georgia Tech beat North Carolina State 118-0. For half a century no Division 1 team scored 100 points on another Division 1 team. In 1949 San Jose State beat New Mexico 103-0, but the Spartans would not become a major college participant until the following season, so this one doesn’t count. The last time a Division 1 team scored 100 points on another Division 1 team was in 1968, when current AAC West member Houston beat current AAC West member Tulsa 100-6.

A Houston wide receiver caught a 25-yard pass for a touchdown in that 100-6 game that made the score 93-6. He later went on to fame in the music business. A Tulsa lineman also became a famous celebrity on television and through his books.

Here are your three trivia questions:
1. Name the Houston Wide Receiver that would become a famous music celebrity.
2. Explain how this wide receiver once performed the National Anthem for a sporting event that was postponed soon after he performed, yet there was no rain, snow, or lightning.
3. Name the Tulsa lineman that became a famous TV celebrity and has used this game as a means to help advance his career.

 

Coming tomorrow: Read our Big 12 preview before you go watch the eclipse.  Is the sun going dark on this once great league, or is there life still in the Big 12?

March 9, 2017

Conference Tournament Update–Thursday, March 9, 2017

New Dance Teams

Only one conference champion was decided Wednesday night, as Bucknell took care of business in the Patriot League with a home win over Lehigh.  The Bison have upset higher-seeded teams in the past, and they own a road win at Vanderbilt this year.  They cannot be overlooked.

There are no automatic bids up for grabs today.

 

Thursday Morning Mimosas

Break out the bubbly, or the Bubble teams.  Today, a host of Bubble teams will be in action.  Let’s look at what happened last night and what games affect the Bubble today.

ACC

Clemson played a sloppy game and lost to Duke, and the Tigers are now NIT-Bound.  Coach Brad Brownell could be skating on thin ice, as CU fans do not tolerate losing for long.  The football national championship may provide just enough Soma for the fans to forgive the basketball program for one more year.

Wake Forest lost to Virginia Tech, but the Demon Deacons should be okay for an at-large bid.  Wake plus Syracuse should join the eight quarterfinal teams to give the ACC 10 teams in the field, but there is no guarantee that either Wake Forest or Syracuse will get an at-large bid should other leagues start producing surprise winners.

 

Big 12

Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State are safely in the field.  Kansas State is on the Bubble and needs an additional win or more.  The Wildcats are in action tonight against Baylor, and an upset over the Bears would go a long way in getting the guys from the Little Apple in the field.  A loss would put K-State in serious jeopardy of missing the tournament

 

Big East

Xavier was almost safely in the field a month ago before injuries sent the Musketeers on a downward slide to the point where they began the Big East Tournament on the Bubble.  Last night, Xavier had to come from behind to defeat bottom-feeder DePaul, and the win should probably earn the Musketeers a bid, but an upset win over Butler tonight would definitely be their elixir.

At 2:30 PM Eastern Time today, Marquette and Seton Hall face off in what could almost be called a fifth First Four game.  The winner of this game will move to the highest shelf on the Bubble seed line, while the loser will have to sweat it out until Sunday afternoon hoping that teams like Nevada and Middle Tennessee win their tournaments.

Providence faces Creighton in the nightcap of today’s Big East action, and a Friar win most likely cinches their Dancing destination.  A loss would knock them down a few notches to where they too would have to do a little sweating for three days.

 

Big Ten

We are probably being a bit cautious here, but we feel the need to based on the preliminary 4-deep seeds issues a month ago that failed to include a single team from this league.  So, with the belief that the committee has discounted the success of the Big Ten this year, we are placing teams we would consider safe in other years as not-so-safe this year.

Michigan and Michigan State would be safe if we were the committee, but the Wolverines and Spartans may not be as safe as one might think.  This should be an interesting day in D.C. with the first three games on the slate directly affecting the Bubble.  At Noon Eastern, Michigan plays Illinois.  Illinois could still get into the at-large mix with a big run this weekend, while Michigan can wrap up a safe spot with a win today.

The next game features Michigan State playing Penn State.  The Spartans and Nittany Lions hooked up in January at the Palestra in Philadelphia, and Penn State played its best game of the season, beating Sparty by nine and leading for about 39 minutes.  A repeat performance in the nation’s capital would cause Coach Tom Izzo to open the Maalox bottle.

The 6:30 PM Eastern game pits Iowa and Indiana.  The Hawkeyes are much closer than the Hoosiers into becoming part of the Bubble mix, but both teams need multiple wins.  A loss by Indiana could be the last time you see Coach Tom Crean coaching IU in a meaningful game.

 

Conference USA

Middle Tennessee is the current top mid-major team if you do not count Gonzaga and Wichita State as mid-majors.  The Blue Raiders are better this year than they were last year when they upset Michigan State in the second round.  However, an early exit upset loss today would probably make MTSU the top seed in the NIT.  They face 9-seed UTSA in the quarterfinal round today at 12:30 PM Eastern.  If MTSU loses in the CUSA Championship Game, the Blue Raiders would be 29-5 and a strong at-large candidate.

 

Mountain West

Nevada is right there with Middle Tennessee in the mid-major Bubble group.  The Wolf Pack can ill afford to lose today to Utah State, and if the boys from Reno advance to the MWC Championship Game and lose to a good team (Boise State or Colorado State), Nevada would be in the conversation at Committee Central.

 

Pac-12

California and USC both looked like NIT teams yesterday, but the Bears and Trojans escaped with ugly wins over the bottom two teams in the league.  Both may have a little work to do to convince the Committee of their worthiness.  Cal could earn a lot of brownie points with a win over Utah today, while USC could virtually clinch a bid if they can beat UCLA tonight, giving the Trojans two out of three wins against the Bruins.

 

SEC

This is the toughest league to figure out, basically because the one true Bubble team is such an anomaly.  Vanderbilt enters tonight’s game with Texas A&M with a 10-8 league mark and 17-14 record overall.  The SEC is not a top 5 league this year, but it is still a power league.  Four teams know they will get invitations, and Vanderbilt beat three of the four, including a sweep over Florida.  The Commodores beat Iowa State out of the league, and their six non-conference losses came to teams that should all be in the Tournament (Marquette, Dayton, Bucknell, Middle Tennessee, Butler, and Minnesota.)

Vanderbilt swept both the Aggies and Gators, and they will have to make it three for three against both teams to advance to the semifinals, where at that point, the Commodores would be expected to be safe.  However, there is the issue of 15 losses, which VU would have if they do not win the automatic bid.  Seven of our 13 Gurus believe Vandy is on the good side of the Bubble starting today, while six say they are a #1 NIT Seed entering today.  Coach Bryce Drew’s club definitely needs to beat A&M again tonight.  A loss puts the Commodores probably a spot below Illinois State and Syracuse.

Georgia might still have an at-large hope if the Bulldogs can top Tennessee today and then pull off the big upset of Kentucky tomorrow.

Does Ole Miss still have a chance?  We are quite bearish on the Rebels’ chances, but if Andy Kennedy’s team can get on a run and make it to Sunday, and then lose a close game to Kentucky, at 22-13, they might have a slim chance.  We’ll believe it when we see it.

 

Tournaments Beginning Action Thursday

 

American Athletic Conference Tournament–Hartford,CT
First Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 8 Temple 16-15 vs. 9 East Carolina 14-17 3:30 PM ESPNU
2 7 Tulsa 14-16 vs. 10 Tulane 6-24 6:00 PM ESPNNews
3 6 Connecticut 14-16 vs. 11 South Florida 7-22 8:00 PM ESPNNews
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
4 1 SMU 27-4 vs.   Game 1 winner   12:00 PM ESPN2
5 4 Central Florida 20-10 vs. 5 Memphis 19-12 2:00 PM ESPN2
6 2 Cincinnati 27-4 vs.   Game 2 winner   7:00 PM ESPNU
7 3 Houston 21-9 vs.   Game 3 winner   9:00 PM ESPNU
                   
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
8   Game 4 winner   vs.   Game 5 winner   3:00 PM ESPN2
9   Game 6 winner   vs.   Game 7 winner   5:00 PM ESPN2
                   
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
10   Game 8 winner   vs.   Game 9 winner   3:15 PM ESPN

 

Big West Conference Tournament–Anaheim
Quarterfinal Round–Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 2 UC-Davis 19-12 vs. 7 Cal Poly 11-19 3:00 PM FSW
2 3 Cal St. Fullerton 16-13 vs. 6 Cal St. Northridge 11-18 5:30 PM FSW
3 1 UC-Irvine 19-13 vs. 8 UC-Riverside 7-20 9:00 PM Prime
4 4 Long Beach St. 14-18 vs. 5 Hawaii 14-15 11:30 PM Prime
                   
Semifinal Round–Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
5   Game 1 winner   vs.   Game 2 winner   9:30 PM ESPN3
6   Game 3 winner   vs.   Game 4 winner   12:00 AM ESPN3
                   
Championship Game–Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   11:30 PM ESPN2

 

Western Athletic Conference Tournament–Las Vegas
Quarterfinal Round–Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 4 Utah Valley 14-15 vs. 5 Seattle 13-16 5:00 PM WAC Digital
2 2 New Mexico St. 25-5 vs. 7 Chicago St. 6-25 7:30 PM WAC Digital
3 3 Missouri-KC 16-15 vs. 6 UT Rio Grande Valley 10-21 10:00 PM WAC Digital
                   
Semifinal Round–Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
4 1 Cal State Bakersfield 21-8 vs.   Game 1 winner   9:00 PM ESPN3
5   Game 2 winner   vs.   Game 3 winner   11:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Championship Game–Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
6   Game 4 winner   vs.   Game 5 winner   11:00 PM ESPNU

 

Today’s Tournament Schedule

Time (ET) Network Conference Team vs. Team
3:30 PM ESPNU American Temple vs. East Carolina
6:00 PM ESPNNews American Tulsa vs. Tulane
8:00 PM ESPNNews American Connecticut vs. South Florida
           
12:00 PM ESPN ACC North Carolina vs. Miami (Fla.)
2:00 PM ESPN ACC Louisville vs. Duke
7:00 PM ESPN ACC Florida St. vs. Virginia Tech
9:00 PM ESPN ACC Notre Dame vs. Virginia
           
12:00 PM NBCSN A-10 LaSalle vs. Davidson
2:30 PM NBCSN A-10 St. Bonaventure vs. Massachusetts
6:00 PM NBCSN A-10 George Mason vs. Fordham
8:30 PM NBCSN A-10 George Washington vs. St. Louis
           
12:30 PM ESPN2 Big 12 Iowa St. vs. Oklahoma St.
2:30 PM ESPN2 Big 12 Kansas vs. TCU
7:00 PM ESPNU Big 12 West Virginia vs. Texas
9:00 PM ESPNU Big 12 Baylor vs. Kansas St.
           
12:00 PM FS1 Big East Villanova vs. St. John’s
2:30 PM FS1 Big East Marquette vs. Seton Hall
7:00 PM FS1 Big East Butler vs. Xavier
9:30 PM FS1 Big East Providence vs. Creighton
           
3:05 PM Watch Big Sky Big Sky North Dakota vs. Portland St.
5:35 PM Watch Big Sky Big Sky Idaho vs. Montana
8:35 PM Watch Big Sky Big Sky Eastern Washington vs. Sacramento St.
11:05 PM Watch Big Sky Big Sky Weber St. vs. Southern Utah
           
12:00 PM BTN Big Ten Michigan vs. Illinois
2:20 PM BTN Big Ten Michigan St. vs. Penn St.
6:30 PM ESPN2 Big Ten Iowa vs. Indiana
8:50 PM ESPN2 Big Ten Northwestern vs. Rutgers
           
3:00 PM FSW Big West UC-Davis vs. Cal Poly
5:30 PM FSW Big West Cal St. Fullerton vs. Cal St. Northridge
9:00 PM Prime Big West UC-Irvine vs. UC-Riverside
11:30 PM Prime Big West Long Beach St. vs. Hawaii
           
12:30 PM ASN CUSA Middle Tennessee vs. UTSA
3:00 PM ASN CUSA UTEP vs. Rice
6:30 PM ASN CUSA Louisiana Tech vs. UAB
9:00 PM ASN CUSA Old Dominion vs. Marshall
           
12:00 PM ESPN3 MAC Akron vs. Eastern Michigan
2:30 PM ESPN3 MAC Ball St. vs. Western Michigan
6:30 PM ESPN3 MAC Ohio U vs. Toledo
9:00 PM ESPN3 MAC Buffalo vs. Kent St.
           
6:00 PM ESPN3 MEAC Morgan St. vs. Howard
8:00 PM ESPN3 MEAC Hampton vs. Md.-Eastern Shore
           
3:00 PM CBSSN MWC Nevada vs. Utah St.
5:30 PM CBSSN MWC Fresno St. vs. New Mexico
9:00 PM CBSSN MWC Colorado St. vs. Air Force
11:30 PM CBSSN MWC Boise St. vs. San Diego St.
           
3:00 PM P12 Net. Pac-12 Oregon vs. Arizona St.
5:30 PM P12 Net. Pac-12 Utah vs. California
9:00 PM P12 Net. Pac-12 Arizona vs. Colorado
11:30 PM ESPN Pac-12 UCLA vs. USC
           
1:00 PM SECN SEC Georgia vs. Tennessee
3:20 PM SECN SEC Alabama vs. Mississippi St.
7:00 PM SECN SEC Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M
9:20 PM SECN SEC Ole Miss vs. Missouri
           
6:00 PM ESPN3 Southland Houston Baptist vs. Sam Houston St.
8:30 PM ESPN3 Southland Stephen F. Austin vs. Lamar
           
5:00 PM WAC Digital WAC Utah Valley vs. Seattle
7:30 PM WAC Digital WAC New Mexico St. vs. Chicago St.
10:00 PM WAC Digital WAC Missouri-KC vs. UT Rio Grande Valley

 

Teams With Automatic Bids

Teams Earning Automatic Bids
Ohio Valley Conference: JACKSONVILLE ST. (20-14)
Big South Conference: WINTHROP (26-6)
Missouri Valley Conference: WICHITA ST. (30-4)
Atlantic Sun Conference: FLORIDA GULF COAST (26-7)
Colonial Athletic Association: UNC-WILMINGTON (29-5)
Southern Conference: EAST TENNESSEE ST. (27-7)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: IONA (22-12)
Horizon League: NORTHERN KENTUCKY: (24-10)
Northeast Conference: MOUNT ST. MARY’S (19-15)
Summit League: SOUTH DAKOTA ST. (18-16)
West Coast Conference: GONZAGA (32-1)
Patriot League: BUCKNELL (26-8)

 

 

 

March 8, 2017

Conference Tournament Update–Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Good Wednesday to all.  Today, the PiRates are hunkered down in our own version of our war room, preparing for Selection Sunday and the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

We have received a heavy load of contacts from you ladies and gentlemen, and a lot of you want to know about our Red-White-Blue Ratings.

  1. We do not know why the Prediction Tracker has not posted our ratings the last two weeks, because we sent them in.  They use a system that takes them off our page, and maybe it is not working properly or it was something we did to make them invisible.
  2. We will attempt to publish ratings for all 67 NCAA Tournament games.
  3. We will publish all the Four Factor and PiRate Bracketnomics information for every team in the Field and update it for every round.

This marks the peak of conference tournament action, as more games will be played in the next two days than any other time during Conference Championship Fortnight.

Teams That Clinched Automatic Bids Tuesday

Making The Field 100% of the Time???

Here’s a trivia question you can use to fool your sports teams?  Name the only school that has made the NCAA Tournament every year since it has been an eligible Division I team.

The answer is simple if you watched the Horizon League Tournament Championship Game last night.  Northern Kentucky, in its first year of D1 eligibility won the automatic bid by holding on against 23-loss Milwaukee.  The Norse closes the season on a rush, winning nine of their last 10 games, but it looks like they will be a heavily over-matched opponent as a 15-seed or at best a 14-seed.

 

Top of the Mountain Again

Our congratulations go out for a fifth time to Mount St. Mary’s, winner of the Northeast Conference Tournament Championship.  This may be the best MSM team to make it to the NCAA Tournament.  The Mountaineers have been fodder for some major #1 seeds through the years, losing to Kentucky by 46, North Carolina by 39, and to Michigan State by 23.  The Mountaineers have been sent to Dayton twice before, beating Coppin State and losing to Albany.  Short of some additional upsets where sub .500 teams receive automatic bids, Mount St. Mary’s is most likely looking at a third trip to Dayton.

 

Reaching the Summit

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits were not expected to compete for the Summit League title this year after former coach Scott Nagy left for the Wright State job, and prospects were not great when SDSU finished the regular season at just 8-8 in the league.  New coach  T.J. Otzelberger may be a star in the making, as he has a slew of national supporters from his days as an assistant at Washington and Iowa St.  His Jackrabbits won the Summit League Championship last night, which means SDSU (18-16) is going to be a 16-seed with a possible visit to Dayton.

 

Bulldog Tough Again

Gonzaga looked like a Final Four team again last night after a week of malaise.  The Bulldogs punished rival Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference Championship Game, looking more like a power team from the 1960’s and 1970’s from the Big Ten.  And, star guard Nigel Williams-Goss looked more like Oscar Robertson last night, basically destroying the Gaels’ with his shooting, passing, and ball-hawking defense.

 

Other Conference Tournament Games

The Bubble burst for one team, while two others strengthened their resumes in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.  Clemson stayed alive by dismissing North Carolina State with relative ease.  Wake Forest withstood a valiant effort from an undermanned Boston College team, and Danny Manning’s Demon Deacons may have secured their at-large spot with the win.  However, another win today over Virginia Tech should definitely get them in.  Georgia Tech fell to Pittsburgh in an ugly game, which was made uglier by an open microphone that caught Panther Head Coach Kevin Stallings saying some very nasty things to one of his players, making it two years with two teams where an open mic caught the fiery Gene Keady disciple cursing one of his players.

 

Last Place Team Watch

99% of you reading this probably saw none of the Big Sky Tournament opening round games, but to the 1% that did, you were quite entertained Tuesday.  Portland State and Sacramento State won their first games in high-octane fashion, but the nightcap between last place Southern Utah and 6-seed Montana State proved to be the game of the day.  At the end of regulation, the game was tied at 78.  Five minutes later after overtime, the score was knotted at 93-93.  Five minutes later, it was 101-101.  It took three extra sessions, but the last place team with a 5-26 record entering the night emerged victorious.  Southern Utah won 109-105 to advance to the quarterfinals against 3-seed Weber State.  The Thunderbirds were led by former Texas Tech Red Raider Randy Onwuasor, who broke the tournament record with 43 points.  Onwuasor played 53 out of the 55 minutes, and he had a rather poor shooting night, hitting just 11-33 from the field, but he drew fouls like a cheap diner draws flies.  The bulky guard connected on 20 foul shots, something that is rarely done when your last name isn’t Maravich or Chamberlain.

 

SWAC’s Best Advance

In recent years, the Southwestern Athletic Conference representative in the NCAA Tournament has been a 16-seed and frequently forced to play in the Opening Round (First Four) in Dayton.  Texas Southern has a chance to move up to a 15-seed if they win the conference tournament in Houston.  The Tigers began tournament play with an 87-72 win over 8-seed Alabama State.  TSU has a surrogate team playing for their NCAA Tournament hopes.  Alcorn State also advanced yesterday with a win over Mississippi Valley.  If the 2-seed Braves win the SWAC Tournament title, it is just as if Texas Southern wins it.  Alcorn State is on probation for low APR scores, and they are ineligible for postseason play.  If ASU wins, then TSU gets the bid as the regular season champion.

 

Big Conference Action Today

The ACC started conference play yesterday and continues with Round 2 today.  Six other multiple bid leagues commence action today–The Atlantic 10, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.  Here is a look at each of these multiple bid league brackets.

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament–Brooklyn
First Round, Tuesday, March 7
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 12 Clemson 16-14 vs. 13 North Carolina St. 15-16 75-61  
2 10 Wake Forest 18-12 vs. 15 Boston College 9-22 92-78  
3 11 Georgia Tech 17-14 vs. 14 Pittsburgh 15-16 59-61  
                   
Second Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
4 8 Syracuse 18-13 vs. 9 Miami (Fla.) 20-10 12:00 PM ESPN
5 5 Duke 23-8 vs. 12 Clemson 17-14 2:00 PM ESPN
6 7 Virginia Tech 21-9 vs. 10 Wake Forest 19-12 7:00 PM ESPN2
7 6 Virginia 21-9 vs. 14 Pittsburgh 16-16 9:00 PM ESPN2
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
8 1 North Carolina   vs.   Game 4 winner   12:00 PM ESPN
9 4 Louisville   vs.   Game 5 winner   2:00 PM ESPN
10 2 Florida St.   vs.   Game 6 winner   7:00 PM ESPN
11 3 Notre Dame   vs.   Game 7 winner   9:00 PM ESPN
                   
Semfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
12   Game 8 winner   vs.   Game 9 winner   7:00 PM ESPN or 2
13   Game 10 winner   vs.   Game 11 winner   9:00 PM ESPN or 2
                   
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
14   Game 12 winner   vs.   Game 13 winner   9:00 PM ESPN

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament–Pittsburgh (Duquense)
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 12 Massachusetts 14-17 vs. 13 St. Joseph’s 11-19 6:00 PM ASN
2 11 St. Louis 11-20 vs. 14 Duquesne 10-21 8:30 PM ASN
                   
2nd Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 8 LaSalle 15-14 vs. 9 Davidson 15-14 12:00 PM NBCSN
4 5 St. Bonaventure 19-11 vs.   Game 1 winner   2:30 PM NBCSN
5 7 George Mason   vs. 10 Fordham   6:00 PM NBCSN
6 6 George Washington 18-13 vs.   Game 2 winner   8:30 PM NBCSN
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7 1 Dayton 24-6 vs.   Game 3 winner   12:00 PM NBCSN
8 4 Rhode Island 21-9 vs.   Game 4 winner   2:30 PM NBCSN
9 2 VCU 24-7 vs.   Game 5 winner   6:00 PM NBCSN
10 3 Richmond 19-11 vs.   Game 6 winner   8:30 PM NBCSN
                   
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
11   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   1:00 PM CBSSN
12   Game 9 winner   vs.   Game 10 winner   3:30 PM CBSSN
                   
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
13   Game 11 winner   vs.   Game 12 winner   12:30 PM CBS

 

 

Big 12 Conference Tournament–Kansas City
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 8 TCU 17-14 vs. 9 Oklahoma 11-19 7:00 PM ESPNU
2 7 Texas Tech 18-13 vs. 10 Texas 10-21 9:00 PM ESPNU
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 4 Iowa St. 20-10 vs. 5 Oklahoma St. 20-11 12:30 PM ESPN2
4 1 Kansas 28-3 vs.   Game 1 winner   2:30 PM ESPN2
5 2 West Virginia 24-7 vs.   Game 2 winner   7:00 PM ESPNU
6 3 Baylor 25-6 vs. 6 Kansas St. 19-12 9:00 PM ESPNU
                   
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 4 winner   vs.   Game 3 winner   7:00 PM ESPN or 2
8   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   9:00 PM ESPN or 2
                   
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   6:00 PM ESPN

 

 

Big East Conference Tournament–New York City
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 8 St. John’s 13-18 vs. 9 Georgetown 14-17 7:00 PM FS1
2 7 Xavier 19-12 vs. 10 DePaul 9-21 9:30 PM FS1
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 1 Villanova 28-3 vs.       12:00 PM FS1
4 4 Marquette 19-11 vs. 5 Seton Hall 20-10 2:30 PM FS1
5 2 Butler 23-7 vs.       7:00 PM FS1
6 3 Providence 20-11 vs. 6 Creighton 23-8 9:30 PM FS1
                   
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 1 winner   vs.   Game 2 winner   6:30 PM FS1
8   Game 3 winner   vs.   Game 4 winner   9:00 PM FS1
                   
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   5:30 PM Fox

 

 

Big Ten Conference Tournament–Washington, DC
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 12 Nebraska 12-18 vs. 13 Penn St. 14-17 4:30 PM ESPN
2 11 Ohio St. 17-14 vs. 14 Rutgers 14-17 7:00 PM BTN
                   
2nd Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 8 Michigan 20-11 vs. 9 Illinois 18-13 12:00 PM BTN
4 5 Michigan St. 18-13 vs.   Game 1 winner   2:20 PM BTN
5 7 Iowa 18-13 vs. 10 Indiana 17-14 6:30 PM ESPN2
6 6 Northwestern 21-10 vs.   Game 2 winner   8:50 PM ESPN2
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7 1 Purdue 25-6 vs.   Game 3 winner   12:00 PM ESPN
8 4 Minnesota 23-8 vs.   Game 4 winner   2:20 PM ESPN
9 2 Wisconsin 23-8 vs.   Game 5 winner   6:30 PM BTN
10 3 Maryland 24-7 vs.   Game 6 winner   8:50 PM BTN
                   
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
11   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   1:00 PM CBS
12   Game 9 winner   vs.   Game 10 winner   3:30 PM CBS
                   
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
13   Game 11 winner   vs.   Game 12 winner   3:00 PM CBS

 

 

Pac-12 Conference Tournament–Las Vegas
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 8 Arizona St. 14-17 vs. 9 Stanford 14-16 3:00 PM P12 Net.
2 5 California 19-11 vs. 12 Oregon St. 5-26 5:30 PM P12 Net.
3 7 Colorado 18-13 vs. 10 Washington St. 13-17 9:00 PM P12 Net.
4 6 USC 23-8 vs. 11 Washington 9-21 11:30 PM P12 Net.
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
5 1 Oregon 27-4 vs.   Game 1 winner   3:00 PM P12 Net.
6 4 Utah 20-10 vs.   Game 2 winner   5:30 PM P12 Net.
7 2 Arizona 27-4 vs.   Game 3 winner   9:00 PM P12 Net.
8 3 UCLA 28-3 vs.   Game 4 winner   11:30 PM ESPN
                   
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   9:00 PM P12 Net.
10   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   11:30 PM ESPN
                   
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
11   Game 9 winner   vs.   Game 10 winner   11:00 PM ESPN

 

 

Southeastern Conference Tournament–Nashville
1st Round, Wednesday, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 12 Mississippi St. 15-15 vs. 13 LSU 10-20 7:00 PM SECN
2 11 Auburn 18-13 vs. 14 MIssouri 7-23 9:00 PM SECN
                   
2nd Round, Thursday, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 8 Georgia 18-13 vs. 9 Tennessee 16-15 1:00 PM SECN
4 5 Alabama 17-13 vs.   Game 1 winner   3:20 PM SECN
5 7 Vanderbilt 17-14 vs. 10 Texas A&M 16-14 7:00 PM SECN
6 6 Ole Miss 19-12 vs.   Game 2 winner   9:20 PM SECN
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7 1 Kentucky 26-5 vs.   Game 3 winner   1:00 PM SECN
8 4 South Carolina 22-9 vs.   Game 4 winner   3:20 PM SECN
9 2 Florida 24-7 vs.   Game 5 winner   7:00 PM SECN
10 3 Arkansas 23-8 vs.   Game 6 winner   9:20 PM SECN
                   
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
11   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   1:00 PM ESPN
12   Game 9 winner   vs.   Game 10 winner   3:20 PM ESPN
                   
Championship Game, Sunday, March 12
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
13   Game 11 winner   vs.   Game 12 winner   1:00 PM ESPN

Today’s TV Schedule

You can have a lot of fun watching a slew of games today and tonight, even if just one bid goes out.  That one automatic addition will come from the Patriot League, where the top seed Bucknell Bison host Lehigh.  Time and TV follow.

Championship Games
Time (ET) Network Conference Team vs. Team
7:30 PM CBSSN Patriot Bucknell vs. Lehigh

 

 

Ongoing Tournament Games
Time (ET) Network Conference Team vs. Team
12:00 PM ESPN ACC Syracuse vs. Miami (Fla.)
2:00 PM ESPN ACC Duke vs. Clemson
7:00 PM ESPN2 ACC Virginia Tech vs. Wake Forest
9:00 PM ESPN2 ACC Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
           
6:00 PM ASN A-10 Massachusetts vs. St. Joseph’s
8:30 PM ASN A-10 St. Louis vs. Duquesne
           
7:00 PM ESPNU Big 12 TCU vs. Oklahoma
9:00 PM ESPNU Big 12 Texas Tech vs. Texas
           
7:00 PM FS1 Big East St. John’s vs. Georgetown
9:30 PM FS1 Big East Xavier vs. DePaul
           
4:30 PM ESPN Big Ten Nebraska vs. Penn St.
7:00 PM BTN Big Ten Ohio St. vs. Rutgers
           
12:30 PM Campus Insiders CUSA Western Kentucky vs. UTSA
3:00 PM Campus Insiders CUSA Rice vs. Southern Miss.
6:30 PM Campus Insiders CUSA UAB vs. Charlotte
9:00 PM Campus Insiders CUSA Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic
           
6:00 PM ESPN3 MEAC UNC-Central vs. Delaware St.
8:00 PM ESPN3 MEAC Norfolk St. vs. South Carolina St.
           
2:00 PM MWN MWC Utah St. vs. San Jose St.
4:30 PM MWN MWC Wyoming vs. Air Force
7:00 PM MWN MWC San Diego St. vs. UNLV
           
3:00 PM P12 Net. Pac-12 Arizona St. vs. Stanford
5:30 PM P12 Net. Pac-12 California vs. Oregon St.
9:00 PM P12 Net. Pac-12 Colorado vs. Washington St.
11:30 PM P12 Net. Pac-12 USC vs. Washington
           
7:00 PM SECN SEC Mississippi St. vs. LSU
9:00 PM SECN SEC Auburn vs. MIssouri
           
6:00 PM ESPN3 Southland Sam Houston St. vs. Central Arkansas
8:30 PM ESPN3 Southland Lamar vs. Southeastern Louisiana
           
1:30 PM ESPN3 Sun Belt Coastal Carolina vs. South Alabama
3:00 PM ESPN3 Sun Belt Arkansas St. vs. Louisiana-Monroe
6:00 PM ESPN3 Sun Belt Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Arkansas-Little Rock
8:30 PM ESPN3 Sun Belt Troy vs. Appalachian St.

 

 

 

November 28, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For December 1-3, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:24 am

The 2016 football season seemed to have just started a couple weeks ago, but here we are already to Championship Week.  This year’s list of Conference Championship Games are sure to provide excitement, but there may be a little less intrigue in some of the contests.  Of course, just one upset in a game figured to be an easy win for the favorite can make one of these games become monumental.

 

Without further adieu, here is a breakdown of the week’s big games.

Friday

The opening conference title game begins at 7 PM Eastern Time on ESPN2 when Western Michigan and Ohio University square off in Detroit in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.  The Broncos are in the Cotton Bowl with a win unless Navy wins the AAC by enough to jump WMU in the final playoff rankings.

In the nightcap, Colorado faces Washington in Santa Clara, California, as the host site of the last Super Bowl to decide the Pac-12 Conference Championship.  A UW win would likely allow the Huskies the privilege of playing top-seeded Alabama in the Peach Bowl in the playoff semifinals.  Colorado is likely to receive the Rose Bowl bid, win or lose this game.  9 PM EST on Fox

 

Saturday

all times EST

12 Noon on ABC–The American Athletic Conference Championship Game

Temple at Navy

Navy faces a strange circumstance in that they will play in their league’s conference championship this week and then play rival Army next week.  They could win the AAC title and then lose to Army and miss out on a possible Cotton Bowl bid as the highest-rated Group of 5 team.  Even in the Midshipmen win both games, they might not pass a 13-0 Western Michigan team.

12 Noon on ESPN–The Conference USA Championship Game

Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky

This conference doesn’t actually rank its bowl tie-ins.  They try to guide their member teams to bowls that create the best possible match-ups, so the game’s outcome could have very little effect on the bowls.  These teams played earlier in the year, with LT handing Western its lone conference loss in a 55-52 shootout.  Hilltopper Coach Jeff Brohm could be coaching his final game with the Hilltoppers, as he will be a prime candidate in multiple open jobs among Power 5 leagues.

12:30 PM on Fox–The De Facto Big 12 Championship Game

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

The winner of this game wins the Big 12 regular season title and most likely earns a trip to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.  A very convincing Sooner win and losses by Clemson and Washington could give OU a small chance to make the Playoffs, but this league is going to be hurt by not having that 13th game with highly-ranked teams facing off.

4 PM on CBS–The Southeastern Conference Championship Game

Alabama vs. Florida in Georgia Dome in Atlanta

The Crimson Tide basically clinched a berth in the Playoffs, and now they must win one more game to guarantee the top seed and know they will be returning to Atlanta for the Semifinal Round on New Year’s Eve.

Florida is playing for a Sugar Bowl bid only, as they are 8-3 and have no chance to make the Playoffs.  They also have virtually no chance to win this game, but they could make it interesting for a half.  The way the Tide has been playing defense in November, they could possibly pitch a shutout in this game.

 

7:45 PM on ESPN–The Mountain West Conference Championship Game

San Diego State at Wyoming

These two teams squared off two weeks ago in Laramie with Wyoming winning a hard-fought game.  Both teams come into this game off regular season losses.  The winner heads to Las Vegas for bowl season.  If SDSU loses, they could play at home in the Poinsettia Bowl, and if Wyoming loses, they could be headed to the field of Blue to play in the Idaho Potato Bowl.

 

8PM on ABC–The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech in Orlando, Florida

Clemson is playing for a playoff spot, and a win secures their golden ticket.  A Virginia Tech upset would send the Hokies to the Orange Bowl, and CU possibly to the Cotton Bowl.

 

8 PM on Fox–The Big Ten Conference Championship

Wisconsin vs. Penn State at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana

To the winner goes a trip to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl and the chance for their band to play in the greatest parade on Earth.  The loser could be faced with an uninspiring trip to Dallas to face Western Kentucky or Navy in the Cotton Bowl.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 131.1 137.5 135.4
2 Washington 131.0 123.8 130.4 128.4
3 Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
4 Clemson 129.7 123.5 128.9 127.4
5 Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
6 Oklahoma 124.3 122.7 124.1 123.7
7 LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
8 USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
9 Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
10 Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
11 Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
12 Penn St. 119.1 119.4 118.9 119.1
13 Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
14 Virginia Tech 118.5 116.9 118.6 118.0
15 Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.5 117.0 117.7
16 Colorado 119.1 114.7 119.0 117.6
17 Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
18 Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
19 Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
20 North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
21 Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
22 Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
23 Florida 113.6 114.3 112.1 113.3
24 Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
25 Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
26 West Virginia 112.5 111.8 112.2 112.2
27 Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
28 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
29 Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
30 Western Kentucky 110.8 108.7 112.2 110.6
31 TCU 110.3 111.7 109.4 110.5
32 Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
33 Kansas St. 109.0 111.1 108.9 109.7
34 South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
35 Navy 110.0 108.4 110.2 109.6
36 Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
37 BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
38 Temple 108.9 108.3 109.6 109.0
39 Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
40 Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
41 Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
42 North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
43 Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
44 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
45 Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
46 Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
47 Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
48 Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
49 Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
50 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
51 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
52 San Diego St. 104.0 102.7 105.9 104.2
53 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
54 Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
55 Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
56 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
57 Baylor 103.2 103.9 103.1 103.4
58 Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
61 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
62 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
63 Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
64 Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
68 Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
69 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
70 Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
71 Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
72 Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
73 South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
74 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
75 Louisiana Tech 96.4 98.8 98.1 97.8
76 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
77 New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
78 Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
79 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
80 Arkansas St. 93.3 95.9 95.1 94.8
81 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
82 Wyoming 93.3 94.0 94.2 93.9
83 Troy 91.7 95.6 93.6 93.7
84 Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
85 Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
86 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
87 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
88 Army 89.4 95.8 90.6 91.9
89 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
90 Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
91 Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
92 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
93 UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
94 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
95 Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
98 Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
102 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
103 Georgia Southern 85.6 86.6 87.1 86.5
104 Idaho 83.8 88.8 85.8 86.1
105 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
106 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
107 UL-Lafayette 83.0 87.1 84.7 85.0
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
111 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
112 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
113 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
114 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
115 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
116 Georgia St. 79.4 83.6 81.4 81.5
117 Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
118 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
121 North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.1 77.0 75.1 75.4
127 UL-Monroe 70.6 75.6 71.5 72.6
128 Texas St. 62.1 64.8 63.0 63.3

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings–Like the Coaches Poll and Not For Predicting Future Outcomes

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Wisconsin
6 Washington
7 Penn St.
8 USC
9 Colorado
10 Western Michigan
11 Oklahoma
12 Florida St.
13 Stanford
14 Oklahoma St.
15 LSU
16 Louisville
17 Auburn
18 Florida
19 Washington St.
20 West Virginia
21 South Florida
22 Iowa
23 Houston
24 Navy
25 Boise St.
26 Virginia Tech
27 Pittsburgh
28 Nebraska
29 Miami (Fla)
30 Tennessee
31 Texas A&M
32 Utah
33 Temple
34 North Carolina
35 Tulsa
36 Western Kentucky
37 Minnesota
38 BYU
39 Georgia Tech
40 Kansas St.
41 Appalachian St.
42 Toledo
43 Troy
44 Memphis
45 Georgia
46 Arkansas
47 San Diego St.
48 Northwestern
49 TCU
50 Air Force
51 Kentucky
52 Colorado St.
53 Vanderbilt
54 North Carolina St.
55 Indiana
56 Ole Miss
57 Wyoming
58 California
59 Old Dominion
60 Louisiana Tech
61 New Mexico
62 Mississippi St.
63 Baylor
64 Central Florida
65 Maryland
66 UCLA
67 South Carolina
68 Oregon
69 Notre Dame
70 Boston College
71 Texas
72 Ohio
73 Idaho
74 Wake Forest
75 Arkansas St.
76 Arizona St.
77 Oregon St.
78 Eastern Michigan
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas Tech
81 SMU
82 Missouri
83 Duke
84 Michigan St.
85 Syracuse
86 Central Michigan
87 UTSA
88 Army
89 Miami (O)
90 Northern Illinois
91 Iowa St.
92 Arizona
93 Southern Miss.
94 Georgia Southern
95 Hawaii
96 UL-Lafayette
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Bowling Green
104 Purdue
105 East Carolina
106 Virginia
107 San Jose St.
108 Nevada
109 North Texas
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 UL-Monroe
113 Georgia St.
114 Rutgers
115 Kent St.
116 Kansas
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Texas St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Buffalo

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
Temple 108.9 108.3 109.6 109.0
Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
Navy 110.0 108.4 110.2 109.6
Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 99.2 99.2 99.6 99.3
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 129.7 123.5 128.9 127.4
Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.5 116.9 118.6 118.0
Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 124.3 122.7 124.1 123.7
Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.5 117.0 117.7
West Virginia 112.5 111.8 112.2 112.2
TCU 110.3 111.7 109.4 110.5
Kansas St. 109.0 111.1 108.9 109.7
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Baylor 103.2 103.9 103.1 103.4
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
Penn St. 119.1 119.4 118.9 119.1
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 110.8 108.7 112.2 110.6
Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.4 98.8 98.1 97.8
UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
Army 89.4 95.8 90.6 91.9
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Indep. Averages 98.1 99.2 98.3 98.5
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
Wyoming 93.3 94.0 94.2 93.9
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 104.0 102.7 105.9 104.2
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 131.0 123.8 130.4 128.4
Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
Colorado 119.1 114.7 119.0 117.6
Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 113.6 114.3 112.1 113.3
Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 137.5 131.1 137.5 135.4
LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
Arkansas St. 93.3 95.9 95.1 94.8
Troy 91.7 95.6 93.6 93.7
Georgia Southern 85.6 86.6 87.1 86.5
Idaho 83.8 88.8 85.8 86.1
UL-Lafayette 83.0 87.1 84.7 85.0
South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
Georgia St. 79.4 83.6 81.4 81.5
New Mexico St. 74.1 77.0 75.1 75.4
UL-Monroe 70.6 75.6 71.5 72.6
Texas St. 62.1 64.8 63.0 63.3
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.3 85.9 83.8 84.0

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–December 2-3, 2016
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Kansas St. 4.3 3.6 3.5
Georgia Southern Troy -3.6 -6.5 -4.0
Navy Temple 4.1 3.1 3.6
Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 17.4 12.9 17.1
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 7.8 10.2 8.1
South Alabama New Mexico St. 10.3 13.7 10.1
UL-Monroe UL-Lafayette -8.9 -10.0 -11.7
West Virginia Baylor 12.3 10.9 12.1
Alabama Florida 23.9 18.8 25.4
Idaho Georgia St. 7.4 8.2 7.4
Texas St. Arkansas St. -28.7 -28.6 -29.6
Wyoming San Diego St. -7.7 -5.7 -8.7
Clemson Virginia Tech 11.2 6.6 10.3
Wisconsin Penn St. 0.4 -2.4 1.3

 

Washington Colorado 12.1 9.1 11.4
Western Michigan Ohio 21.8 15.9 22.9

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. La. Tech
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC {Hawaii} vs. Wyoming
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. UL-Lafayette
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Sou. Miss. vs. Appy St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC Tulsa vs. Ohio
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. * BYU *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Boise St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA South Florida vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {North Texas}
Dollar General MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. Arkansas St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Old Dominion vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND {Army} vs. Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Boston College vs. {Miss. St.}
Independence SEC ACC/ND Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {S.Alabama} vs. UTSA
Military ACC/ND AAC N. Carolina St. vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. [Idaho]
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Louisville vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Wash. St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. S. Carolina
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Tennessee
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 N. Carolina vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Middle Tenn. vs. Colorado St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Indiana vs. Kentucky
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Florida St. vs. Michigan
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Florida
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. LSU
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Penn St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Clemson
           
           
* Team * This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team] At-Large Selection

 

February 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks For February 6-7, 2016

Breaking News: The University of Louisville has self-imposed a ban on the postseason for this year.  This means one extra bubble team just benefitted greatly.

 

Here are this weekend’s picks from the top 6 conferences.

 

Remember:

Red= An algorithm based 100% on the Four Factors

White= An algorithm combining the Four Factors and a Least Squares formula on who beat who where and when

Blue= A 100% ratings’ based algorithm concentrating on scoring margin and strength of schedule

All ratings rounded to nearest whole number except when that number is 0.  Then, even if the rating is 1/1000 of a point different, the team 1/1000 of a point better is listed as a 1-point favorite.

Games Scheduled for: Saturday, February 6, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Pittsburgh Virginia -2 1 1
Wake Forest Florida St. -4 -5 -3
Louisville Boston College 24 26 19
Duke North Carolina St. 12 12 10
Virginia Tech Clemson 1 1 -1
Notre Dame North Carolina -3 -1 -5
TCU Kansas -10 -10 -12
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. -4 -4 1
Texas Texas Tech 7 6 8
Kansas St. Oklahoma -7 -3 -7
West Virginia Baylor 8 8 10
Xavier Marquette 15 14 12
Creighton Depaul 12 15 17
Providence Villanova -4 -2 -5
St. John’s Butler -11 -14 -8
Seton Hall Georgetown 6 16 9
Michigan Michigan St. -3 -3 -5
Nebraska Rutgers 16 17 14
Maryland Purdue 5 5 6
Penn St. Indiana -10 -24 -15
California Stanford 8 8 7
Washington Arizona -3 -2 -9
Washington St. Arizona St. -3 -5 -3
Oregon St. Colorado 2 -1 -1
Alabama Missouri 11 10 10
Kentucky Florida 6 4 7
Texas A&M South Carolina 9 7 10
Georgia Auburn 10 13 7
LSU Mississippi St. 8 9 14
Arkansas Tennessee 7 7 8
Ole Miss Vanderbilt -2 -3 2

 

Games Schedule for: Sunday, February 7 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Georgia Tech Miami (Fl.) -3 -2 -5
Illinois Iowa -13 -11 -16
Oregon Utah 11 9 12

 

January 23, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks: January 24-25, 2015

The second experimental week of the PiRate Ratings Basketball Edition showed some improvement, but our Red rating is a cause for concern.  This is the most fragile of the three, and our early opinion is that the strength of schedule element in this rating is not adequately affecting the statistical data the way it should.  We are monitoring the situation, but at this point, there is insufficient data to draw firm conclusions.

If this is your first time here, our basketball ratings commenced two weeks ago.  For the time being, we are only selecting weekend games played between teams in the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC, chosen strictly because these three conferences represent about 80% of our regular audience that continue to support our football ratings for several years.

Our basketball ratings use three separate formulae based on basketballs “Four Factors,” strength of schedule, home court advantage and visitors’ disadvantage, pace, and just a pinch of school tradition.

 

Here are our selections for January 24-25, 2015

Home

Visitor

Red White Blue
Saturday        

South Carolina

Kentucky

-23 -11

-11

Michigan Wisconsin

-17

-9

-6

North Carolina Florida St.

22

20

20

Purdue Iowa

1

1

2

Clemson Wake Forest

5

3

5

Penn St. Rutgers

8

5

3

Tennessee Texas A&M

-3

4

2

Missouri Arkansas

-18

-7

-11

Minnesota Illinois

6

5

-1

Mississippi St. Georgia

-16

-10

-6

Syracuse Miami (FL)

6

3

5

Nebraska Michigan St.

-5

-3

-7

Vanderbilt LSU

5

1

-6

Ole Miss Florida

-3

4

1

Alabama Auburn

15

12

13

         
Sunday        
Virginia Tech Virginia

-25

-20

-27

NC State Notre Dame

-13

-1

-4

Pittsburgh Louisville

-16

-4

-8

Maryland Northwestern

19

14

15

Ohio St. Indiana

19

6

8

Georgia Tech Boston College

-2

4

2

 

January 16, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks: January 17-18, 2015

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:11 pm

The PiRate Ratings introduced our new basketball ratings last week with mixed results.  This is an experimental rating in its infancy, so our algorithms may be adjusted over time.

Our method is to use basketball’s “Four Factors” and find algorithms that take this data and determine a pointspread based on the data.  Obviously, strength of schedule and home court advantage must be factored into the equation.

We found three separate algorithms that, when back-tested, proved to be more accurate than all others we experimented with.

We call the three ratings, PiRate Red, PiRate White, and PiRate Blue, since it would be ridiculous to call one rating the Effective Field Goal % bias, another one the Rebounding/Turnover Bias, and the third one the rating that incorporates steals into turnover rate.  Red, white, and blue are easier to remember.

Because the amount of time to figure each game is lengthy and cannot be done mechanically, we are covering just the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC games on Saturdays and Sundays for now.

Once the NCAA Tournament seedings are announced, we will select all tournament games.

Here is our second weekend of official “experimental” picks–January 17-18, 2015

A minus number means the visitor is the favorite.

Home Visitor Red White Blue
Saturday        
Alabama Kentucky -23 -8 -12
Arkansas Ole Miss 12 8 10
Auburn South Carolina -13 -4 -2
Boston College Virginia -24 -14 -16
Clemson Syracuse -13 -1 -7
Florida St. NC State -8 -4 -2
Georgia Florida -4 3 -5
Iowa Ohio St. -15 1 2
Louisville Duke 6 5 4
LSU Texas A&M 3 7 7
Maryland Michigan St. 1 4 -2
Michigan Northwestern 10 8 12
Minnesota Rutgers 23 12 11
Mississippi St. Vanderbilt -17 -7 -2
Missouri Tennessee -7 1 3
Notre Dame Miami (FL) 21 11 7
Penn St. Purdue -1 1 -2
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 8 3 7
Sunday
Illinois Indiana 6 3 3
North Carolina Virginia Tech 18 21 21

January 9, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks: January 10-11, 2015

The PiRate Ratings Introduce our new basketball ratings with this post.

Our method is to use basketball’s “Four Factors” and find algorithms that take this data and determine a pointspread based on it.  Obviously, strength of schedule and home court advantage must be factored into the equation.

We have found three separate algorithms that, when backtested, have proven to be more accurate than all others we experimented with.  We are calling the three ratings, PiRate Red, PiRate White, and PiRate Blue, since it would be ridiculous to call one rating the Effective Field Goal % bias, another one the Rebounding/Turnover Bias, and the third one the rating that incorporates steals into turnover rate.  Red, white, and blue are easy to remember.

Because the amount of time to figure each game is lengthy and cannot be done mechanically, we are going to begin by covering the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC games plus other important games during the regular season.

Once the NCAA Tournament seedings are announced, we will select all tournament games.

Here are our first official “experimental” picks–January 10-11, 2015

Home Visitor Red White Blue
Arkansas Vanderbilt 15 10 14
Auburn Missouri 4 3 2
Florida Mississippi St. 24 18 25
Indiana Ohio St. -16 -1 -7
LSU Georgia -1 2 6
Miami (FL) Boston College 16 8 11
Michigan Minnesota -6 -1 -2
Michigan St. Northwestern 23 16 19
NC State Duke -15 -11 -11
Nebraska Illinois -6 1 -2
North Carolina Louisville -2 6 -3
Notre Dame Virginia 19 1 7
Ole Miss South Carolina -7 2 5
Pittsburgh Clemson 4 8 9
Purdue Maryland -4 -1 -3
Rutgers Wisconsin -32 -15 -19
Syracuse Florida St. 21 13 18
Tennessee Alabama -4 2 1
Texas A&M Kentucky -23 -12 -17
Wake Forest Georgia Tech 2 1 -2

Here are our opening picks.

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