The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 21, 2022

PiRate Ratings — NFL For Week 12: November 24-28, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
DetroitBuffalo-14.8-14.3-14.0
DallasN.Y. Giants13.612.213.1
MinnesotaNew England2.32.12.0
CarolinaDenver-2.6-3.0-1.6
ClevelandTampa Bay-1.9-1.8-1.8
JacksonvilleBaltimore-6.4-5.1-6.0
MiamiHouston14.613.214.0
N.Y. JetsChicago11.211.411.2
TennesseeCincinnati-1.6-0.7-1.0
WashingtonAtlanta6.45.56.2
ArizonaLA Chargers2.92.32.8
SeattleLas Vegas3.23.55.3
Kansas CityLA Rams14.314.514.7
San FranciscoNew Orleans8.09.39.0
PhiladelphiaGreen Bay8.08.78.6
IndianapolisPittsburgh4.34.14.2

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
DetroitBuffalo49
DallasN.Y. Giants42
MinnesotaNew England44.5
CarolinaDenver35.5
ClevelandTampa Bay45
JacksonvilleBaltimore43
MiamiHouston42.5
N.Y. JetsChicago42.5
TennesseeCincinnati44.5
WashingtonAtlanta44
ArizonaLA Chargers51.5
SeattleLas Vegas47.5
Kansas CityLA Rams48.5
San FranciscoNew Orleans42
PhiladelphiaGreen Bay43.5
IndianapolisPittsburgh39.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo111.5111.3111.1111.323.57-3
New England103.1103.2103.8103.4196-4
N.Y. Jets101.6102.1101.8101.8216-4
Miami100.9101.1100.9101.0237-3
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.3105.0105.4105.2217-3
Cincinnati104.5104.2104.6104.425.56-4
Cleveland98.797.998.098.224.53-7
Pittsburgh96.996.896.996.9213-7
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee100.0100.5100.6100.3197-3
Indianapolis98.298.098.098.118.54-6-1
Jacksonville96.497.496.996.9223-7
Houston89.390.990.090.019.51-8-1
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.5110.1110.2110.328.58-2
Denver99.6100.298.799.5153-7
Las Vegas98.998.898.198.6253-7
LA Chargers97.598.397.897.9275-5

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas106.5106.1106.9106.5237-3
Philadelphia105.4105.0105.1105.222.59-1
Washington97.997.397.897.7196-5
N.Y. Giants95.996.996.896.5197-3
NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Minnesota102.4102.3102.8102.525.58-2
Green Bay100.499.399.599.7214-7
Detroit94.294.594.694.425.54-6
Chicago93.393.793.593.521.53-8
SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay103.6102.8102.8103.120.55-5
New Orleans99.097.898.298.3224-7
Atlanta94.594.994.794.7255-6
Carolina94.094.294.194.120.54-7
WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
San Francisco104.0104.1104.2104.1206-4
Seattle99.199.3100.499.622.56-4
LA Rams99.298.698.598.8203-7
Arizona97.497.697.697.524.54-7

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Kansas City
3Miami
4Tennessee
5Buffalo
6New England
7Cincinnati

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3San Francisco
4Tampa Bay
5Dallas
6New York Giants
7Seattle

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Cincinnati
New England over Miami
Buffalo over Tennessee
Seattle over Minnesota
New York Giants over San Francisco
Dallas over Tampa Bay
Divisional Round
Baltimore over New England
Kansas City over Buffalo
Philadelphia over Seattle
Dallas over New York Giants
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Baltimore
Philadelphia over Dallas
Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Kansas City over Philadelphia

November 10, 2022

PiRate Picks–November 10, 2022

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:11 am

With apologies to Steve Sabol at NFL Films, the Autumn Wind is a PiRate Pick, blustering in from a sea of football spreads.

After a successful 3-1 week, our annual fake bank account for the season is just three bucks short of break-even, so a successful week of any kind this week will put us back in the black with a positive fake bank account.

There is a reason this weekly feature is late this week by three or four hours; we saw too many playable games, and we could not eliminate one over the other. Thus, we are issuing a whopping 11 selections this week. They are all exotic selections, as we have been doing much better with them than straight picks this year.

Included this week are six, 7-point teaser parlays, four, 10-point teaser parlays, and one money line parlay. Without further adieu, take a look but only wager imaginary money on these games or plan to be looking for a second job in order to pay the bills on your Christmas shopping.

Selection #1: 2 Team, 7-point Teaser @ -130

Georgia Southern +10 1/2 vs. Louisiana

Fresno St. – 2 1/2 vs. UNLV

Selection #2: 2 Team, 7-point Teaser @ -130

Arkansas +10 1/2 vs. LSU

Tennessee -13 1/2 vs. Missouri

Selection #3: 2 Team, 7-point Teaser @ -130

West Virginia +14 1/2 vs. Oklahoma

Pittsburgh +3 1/2 vs. Virginia

Selection #4: 2 Team, 7-point Teaser @ -130

Michigan St. -2 1/2 vs. Rutgers

James Madison – 1/2 vs. Old Dominion

Selection #5: 2 Team, 7-point Teaser @ -130

Clemson Pk. vs. Louisville

North Texas +12 1/2 vs. UAB

Selection #6: 2 Team, 7-point Teaser @ -130

Washington State -1 1/2 vs. Arizona State

Florida -1 1/2 vs. South Carolina

Selection #7: 3 Team, 10-point Teaser @ -120

Notre Dame -5 1/2 vs. Navy

Connecticut +24 1/2 vs. Liberty

Alabama -1 1/2 vs. Ole Miss

Selection #8: 3 Team, 10-point Teaser @ -120

Houston -9 1/2 vs. Temple

Penn St. – 1/2 vs. Maryland

Iowa + 11 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

Selection #9: 3 Team, 10-point Teaser @ -120

Central Florida +11 1/2 vs. Tulane

Iowa State +8 1/2 vs. Oklahoma State

Marshall +11 1/2 vs. Appalachian State

Selection #10: 3 Team, 10-point Teaser @ -120

South Alabama -6 1/2 vs. Texas State

Georgia -6 1/2 vs. Mississippi State

Southern Mississippi +14 1/2 vs. Coastal Carolina

Selection #11: Money Line Parlay @ +180.91

Memphis over Tulsa

Cincinnati over East Carolina

Texas over TCU

November 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–November 6, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:45 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
AkronEastern Michigan-9.1-9.3-9.9
Miami (O)Ohio0.80.40.0
ToledoBall St.13.713.614.4
Western MichiganNorthern Illinois-2.5-2.0-2.2
Central MichiganBuffalo2.31.82.6
Bowling GreenKent St.1.1-0.71.2
MemphisTulsa6.77.76.8
LouisianaGeorgia Southern2.12.32.3
CincinnatiEast Carolina8.68.38.5
USCColorado28.029.929.8
UNLVFresno St.-10.1-11.1-10.6
Wake ForestNorth Carolina1.61.21.8
SyracuseFlorida St.-5.2-5.8-5.9
ConnecticutLiberty-16.5-16.3-19.3
DukeVirginia Tech5.27.15.7
Navy (Bal)Notre Dame-22.7-21.9-23.8
West VirginiaOklahoma-6.8-6.6-7.4
VirginiaPittsburgh-7.6-6.6-7.5
Ohio St.Indiana37.737.440.2
TennesseeMissouri23.122.924.6
Penn St.Maryland12.112.112.9
North Carolina St.Boston College22.320.823.2
FloridaSouth Carolina3.85.44.2
KentuckyVanderbilt19.719.521.6
MichiganNebraska28.828.530.3
Georgia TechMiami (Fla.)-5.0-4.2-5.3
ClemsonLouisville7.37.17.4
Texas TechKansas5.75.77.7
South FloridaSMU-12.8-13.2-14.4
Coastal CarolinaSouthern Miss.9.29.79.9
Georgia St.Louisiana-Monroe18.117.920.1
MarshallAppalachian St.0.1-0.2-1.2
Old DominionJames Madison-2.6-4.0-6.0
TulaneCentral Florida-0.5-1.3-0.8
MinnesotaNorthwestern22.420.823.1
IllinoisPurdue2.33.93.4
South AlabamaTexas St.14.313.614.8
Michigan St.Rutgers16.116.117.4
HoustonTemple23.821.725.2
BaylorKansas St.3.73.94.1
Arkansas St.Massachusetts14.114.616.6
Western KentuckyRice18.318.219.9
UtahStanford20.421.622.9
Washington St.Arizona St.8.08.98.6
Oregon St.California14.113.213.6
OregonWashington12.411.611.9
UCLAArizona19.419.520.6
San Diego St.San Jose St.-0.2-1.2-0.9
TexasTCU4.24.53.4
AuburnTexas A&M1.0-0.9-0.8
TroyArmy3.54.15.4
Ole MissAlabama-11.6-12.4-13.9
Oklahoma St.Iowa St.4.73.44.1
IowaWisconsin1.10.20.0
ArkansasLSU-1.8-2.6-1.5
Mississippi St.Georgia-14.2-14.6-16.1
Air ForceNew Mexico26.726.528.6
Middle TennesseeCharlotte12.111.812.6
UABNorth Texas5.45.24.9
UTSALouisiana Tech18.316.519.4
Colorado St.Wyoming-5.4-6.3-6.3
Florida Int’l.Florida Atlantic-19.9-18.8-20.3
NevadaBoise St.-20.0-18.0-21.0
HawaiiUtah St.-13.8-12.7-13.4

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBSFCSPiRate
New Mexico St.Lamar18.2

Teams With Byes

BYU
UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: Our ratings are not reward based on what the teams have done so far. They are predictive in nature, meant to be used for the following week to predict the outcome of games. Thus, a two-loss team is ranked number three over a one-loss team that beat them. Do not confuse power ratings for rankings like the AP, COaches, and Playoff Polls.

#TeamRating
1Ohio St.132.8
2Georgia132.7
3Alabama129.2
4Michigan127.6
5Tennessee125.3
6Penn St.119.8
7L S U117.5
8Texas117.3
9Clemson117.2
10Utah117.1
11Oregon117.1
12Baylor116.5
13T C U116.2
14Florida St.116.0
15Kansas St.115.6
16Notre Dame115.6
17Minnesota115.4
18Mississippi St.114.7
19Wisconsin114.5
20Ole Miss113.5
21U C L A113.1
22Louisville113.0
23NC State112.7
24Arkansas112.5
25U S C112.3
26Oklahoma112.2
27Iowa112.0
28Illinois111.8
29Purdue111.6
30Michigan St.110.7
31Maryland110.4
32Oklahoma St.109.7
33Kentucky109.7
34North Carolina109.6
35Oregon St.109.5
36Wake Forest109.2
37Florida109.0
38Cincinnati108.8
39Texas Tech108.7
40Texas A&M108.7
41Iowa St.108.6
42Pittsburgh108.4
43Washington108.1
44South Carolina107.6
45Washington St.107.5
46UCF107.4
47Syracuse107.3
48Auburn105.5
49Kansas105.4
50Missouri104.7
51Boise St.104.2
52Tulane104.0
53SMU103.8
54East Carolina103.3
55BYU103.2
56Liberty103.1
57Air Force102.4
58West Virginia102.3
59Arizona St.102.0
60Houston101.5
61Nebraska101.4
62Miami (Fla.)101.2
63Fresno St.100.6
64California98.9
65Appalachian St.98.7
66Duke98.7
67W. Kentucky98.6
68Stanford98.5
69Toledo98.3
70Georgia St.98.1
71Virginia98.1
72Memphis97.7
73U T S A97.5
74Indiana97.4
75Rutgers97.2
76U A B96.6
77Northwestern96.3
78Arizona96.3
79Troy96.3
80James Madison95.9
81Virginia Tech95.7
82South Alabama95.4
83San Jose St.95.4
84Marshall95.3
85Army94.9
86Coastal Carolina94.8
87North Texas94.0
88Boston College93.6
89Georgia Tech93.3
90Tulsa93.1
91Ga. Southern92.6
92Vanderbilt92.5
93Louisiana92.3
94Navy92.2
95San Diego St.92.1
96Ohio92.1
97N. Illinois91.8
98Buffalo91.0
99Central Mich.90.8
100Miami (Ohio)90.5
101Utah St.90.2
102Old Dominion89.7
103Wyoming89.3
104Florida Atlantic89.2
105Southern Miss.88.2
106Kent St.88.0
107USF87.8
108U N L V87.5
109Western Mich.87.1
110Ball St.86.9
111Bowling Green86.6
112Eastern Mich.86.3
113Colorado86.0
114Middle Tennessee84.5
115U T E P84.3
116Texas St.83.7
117Connecticut83.2
118Rice82.3
119Arkansas St.82.3
120Nevada82.1
121UL-Monroe81.9
122Louisiana Tech81.9
123Colorado St.81.3
124Temple80.9
125New Mexico78.1
126Charlotte74.9
127Akron74.9
128New Mexico St.74.8
129Hawaii73.8
130Massachusetts69.7
131Florida Int’l.68.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati108.8108.1109.4108.8
UCF107.0107.6107.6107.4
Tulane104.0103.8104.3104.0
SMU103.9103.3104.2103.8
East Carolina103.2102.8103.8103.3
Houston101.7100.9101.8101.5
Memphis97.898.097.397.7
Tulsa93.692.893.093.1
Navy92.692.291.992.2
USF88.687.687.487.8
Temple80.982.279.680.9

AAC98.498.198.298.2

Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson117.4117.0117.3117.2
Florida St.116.2115.8115.9116.0
Louisville113.2112.9112.9113.0
NC State113.2112.4112.5112.7
Wake Forest109.4109.1109.0109.2
Syracuse108.1107.0106.9107.3
Boston College93.994.692.393.6

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.9109.9109.2109.6
Pittsburgh109.3108.3107.6108.4
Miami (Fla.)101.9101.0100.6101.2
Duke98.4100.397.298.7
Virginia98.698.797.098.1
Virginia Tech96.396.294.695.7
Georgia Tech94.093.892.393.3

ACC105.7105.5104.7105.3

Big 12
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Texas118.1117.2116.6117.3
Baylor117.0115.9116.6116.5
T C U116.9115.6116.3116.2
Kansas St.116.3115.0115.5115.6
Oklahoma112.6111.7112.4112.2
Oklahoma St.110.5108.9109.7109.7
Texas Tech109.0107.9109.3108.7
Iowa St.108.8108.5108.6108.6
Kansas106.4105.2104.6105.4
West Virginia102.8102.2102.0102.3

Big 12111.8110.8111.2111.3

Big Ten
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.133.1132.0133.3132.8
Michigan127.9127.2127.8127.6
Penn St.120.0119.8119.7119.8
Michigan St.111.6110.5110.1110.7
Maryland111.0110.6109.8110.4
Indiana98.497.696.197.4
Rutgers98.597.495.797.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota115.9115.0115.4115.4
Wisconsin114.8114.6114.1114.5
Iowa112.9111.9111.1112.0
Illinois112.0112.5111.1111.8
Purdue112.6111.6110.6111.6
Nebraska102.1101.7100.6101.4
Northwestern96.597.295.396.3

Big Ten112.0111.4110.8111.4

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky98.198.199.798.6
U T S A97.596.898.097.5
U A B96.496.297.396.6
North Texas93.593.594.994.0
Florida Atlantic89.190.088.689.2
Middle Tennessee84.384.784.684.5
U T E P84.484.384.084.3
Rice82.382.482.382.3
Louisiana Tech81.782.881.181.9
Charlotte74.775.474.574.9
Florida Int’l.67.769.766.868.1

CUSA86.386.786.586.5

Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame115.9114.6116.2115.6
BYU103.7102.4103.5103.2
Liberty102.2103.3103.7103.1
Army94.895.095.094.9
Connecticut83.284.481.983.2
New Mexico St.74.376.273.974.8
Massachusetts70.070.868.269.7

Independents92.092.491.892.1

Mid-American
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio90.792.992.692.1
Buffalo89.791.991.691.0
Miami (Ohio)89.491.490.790.5
Kent St.87.589.187.588.0
Bowling Green86.686.486.786.6
Akron74.875.574.374.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.698.698.798.3
N. Illinois91.692.091.891.8
Central Mich.89.591.191.790.8
Western Mich.86.787.587.187.1
Ball St.86.487.686.886.9
Eastern Mich.85.986.786.286.3

MAC88.089.288.888.7

Mountain West
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.2103.6104.9104.2
Air Force102.2102.0102.9102.4
Utah St.90.090.190.490.2
Wyoming88.390.189.689.3
Colorado St.81.081.881.381.3
New Mexico78.678.577.278.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.100.5100.2101.2100.6
San Jose St.94.995.495.895.4
San Diego St.92.391.792.392.1
U N L V87.986.588.187.5
Nevada81.783.181.482.1
Hawaii73.274.474.073.8

MWC89.689.889.989.8

Pac-12
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.9116.3118.2117.1
Oregon117.2116.7117.3117.1
U C L A112.6112.6114.1113.1
U S C111.8112.2112.8112.3
Oregon St.109.6108.9110.1109.5
Washington107.8108.0108.4108.1
Washington St.107.0107.4108.0107.5
Arizona St.102.0101.5102.4102.0
California98.598.799.598.9
Stanford99.597.798.398.5
Arizona96.296.196.596.3
Colorado86.885.386.086.0

Pac-12105.5105.1106.0105.5

Southeastern
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia132.7131.8133.6132.7
Tennessee125.0125.0125.8125.3
Kentucky109.3109.7110.1109.7
Florida108.4109.7108.9109.0
South Carolina107.7107.3107.7107.6
Missouri104.8105.1104.2104.7
Vanderbilt92.693.291.592.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.1128.4130.0129.2
L S U117.7117.2117.5117.5
Mississippi St.115.5114.2114.5114.7
Ole Miss114.5113.0113.1113.5
Arkansas112.9111.6113.1112.5
Texas A&M108.4108.8108.9108.7
Auburn106.4104.9105.1105.5

SEC113.2112.9113.1113.1

Sunbelt
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.97.698.899.698.7
Georgia St.97.497.599.498.1
James Madison94.395.797.795.9
Marshall94.795.695.495.3
Coastal Carolina93.995.095.594.8
Ga. Southern92.292.393.492.6
Old Dominion89.789.789.789.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy95.396.197.496.3
South Alabama94.695.196.495.4
Louisiana91.792.193.192.3
Southern Miss.87.788.288.688.2
Texas St.82.884.184.183.7
Arkansas St.81.682.982.382.3
UL-Monroe81.882.281.881.9

Sun Belt91.191.892.591.8

Conference Ratings

#ConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.1
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12111.3
4Pac-12105.5
5Atlantic Coast105.3
6American Athletic98.2
7Independents92.1
8Sun Belt91.8
9Mountain West89.8
10Mid-American88.7
11Conference USA86.5

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Four weeks from today, the College Football Playoffs and Postseason Bowl Game participants will be revealed to the public.  With less than a month to go, it’s time to take a more in-depth look at where things stand and where they might go.

The Playoff Race

After yesterday’s Georgia-Tennessee, Alabama-LSU, and Notre Dame-Clemson games played, it left three teams in the clear-cut lead to be in the top four this week.  Georgia has now penned the lone losses on Oregon and Tennessee, and the Bulldogs will ascend to number one.  Ohio State won ugly at Northwestern yesterday, but they played in severe weather.  Michigan once again spotted an opponent an early lead and then steamrolled Rutgers by four touchdowns.  Those three teams will be in the Big Four on Tuesday.  Who will be number four?  We believe it will be Tennessee, as losing at the new number one team by two touchdowns definitely tops Oregon’s blowout loss in Atlanta to the same team.  Should TCU be in the mix?  They most definitely should, but as so many media experts explain, their name drops them a couple spots in the rankings, just like Cincinnati last year at this time.  If the Horned Frogs win out with three tough games to go, they almost assuredly would move into the top four, but that’s a big if, and at the present time, having watched TCU play most of their games, we don’t see this team sitting at 13-0 on December 4.

If we have to make a wild guess, we will say that Georgia will easily win out in the regular season, even if their game in Starkville this week may be a trap game.  We cannot see any of Tennessee’s final three opponents competing against the Vols.  Georgia stopped their offense, because the Bulldogs have a defense not that much weaker than the Detroit Lions (probably more future Pro Bowl players than the Lions).  Neither Ohio State nor Michigan have much in their way prior to the big game at the Giant Horseshoe.  It won’t be popular, but a Big Ten-SEC Challenge in the Playoffs could be in the offing.  As of today, we have Georgia playing Michigan in the Peach Bowl, and Ohio State playing Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl.  Oregon might win out and finish 12-1 and have to settle for the Rose Bowl.  We can see TCU actually losing twice in the next month, and maybe having to settle for the Cotton Bowl or even the Alamo Bowl, depending on what UCLA or USC does out West.

The New Year’s Six

One thing that happened this weekend was the elimination of Alabama and most likely Clemson from the Playoff picture.  With LSU’s win, the Tigers have a tough rebound game at Arkansas, and if Brian Kelly can lead the Bayou Bengals into Fayetteville and win, they almost have the SEC West clinched.  At 10-2 and a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, we believe the Sugar Bowl will take them in a heartbeat.  Where would that leave a 10-2 Alabama?  We think they would still get an Orange Bowl bid, where they might face their former nemesis Clemson.  The Rose Bowl would get the Pac-12 champion that would not be Playoff bound, so we’ll slot Oregon in there for now but not rule out the winner of the USC-UCLA game.  That leaves the Cotton Bowl.  The Group of Five team that finishes the highest in the ratings will automatically get a bid here.  If that bid was extended today, the Tulane Green Wave would receive it, but TU must beat Central Florida, Cincinnati, and then one of those two again in the AAC Championship Game to get to 12-1 and secure the bid.  Should TU falter, and we think that’s a very high possibility, the next team in line, one that strengthened their resume with a road win against an SEC team, would be Liberty, if the Flames win out (a much higher probability than Tulane).  The last at-large team in the field would most likely be Penn State at 10-2, but the number two team in the Pac-12 could beat the Nittany Lions out.  With losses to just two teams that we pick to be in the Playoffs, we’d go with Penn State to edge out any two-loss Pac-12 team.

American Athletic

As we previously mentioned, we do not see Tulane winning out, and should the Green Wave lose to both Central Florida and Cincinnati, they won’t even make the AAC Championship Game.  If they beat UCF in New Orleans, they would have to beat Cinti in consecutive weeks to get there, once in the Queen City and then once in the Crescent City.  If the Bearcats win out, and Tulane beats UCF, then Cinti would host Tulane in consecutive weeks.  If UCF wins out, and Cincinnati tops Tulane, then the Bearcats would have to go to Orlando in the conference championship game.

Elsewhere in the AAC, with SMU’s record-setting basketball score win over Houston, the Mustangs are almost a lock to get a bowl bid.  East Carolina is already bowl eligible.  Houston and Memphis have work to do, but the schedule is favorable for both.  As for the Cougars, Dana Holgersen may not be coaching the team by bowl season.

Atlantic Coast & Notre Dame

A half-dozen teams will have to lose games before Clemson has a remote chance to sneak into the playoffs, assuming the Tigers can win out.  If they play like they have the last few weeks, beating North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game would be 50-50 at best, and they might even be vulnerable against South Carolina in the regular season finale.  At best, CU can hope for another ACC title and a trip to the Orange Bowl.  North Carolina may be the weakest 1-loss team from a Power 5 Conference since the 20th Century.  The Tar Heels keep coming up with fourth quarter heroics to be mediocre teams.  We don’t believe Mack Brown’s Heels can make it to a New Year’s Bowl Game, and they need to finish better than one game ahead of Notre Dame just to get the Cheez-it Bowl bid.

Notre Dame can receive any of the ACC’s allotted bowl bids after the Orange Bowl as long as their won-loss record is within one game of the next highest ACC team.  If the Irish lose to USC and finish 9-3, they will be able to jump over a 10-2 team, but not an 11-2 team.  What better bowl to send the Irish to in December than one in Boston?  They’d sell out Fenway Park like a Yankees-Red Sox game in October.

With Notre Dame, this league figures to have 10 bowl eligible teams, which means all the first tier bowl bids will be taken, and one second tier bowl bid will be used.  We believe the Gasparilla Bowl will get the final ACC team.

Big 12

Had Texas been able to edge Alabama in September and not lose their star QB for a few games, the Longhorns might be in the Playoff mix.  The best the Longhorns can do now is to play spoiler and knock TCU out of the Playoff mix.  If Quinn Ewers can remain healthy and not have another three interception day like he did against Oklahoma State, the Longhorns might win out and become Big 12 Champions, getting a Sugar Bowl bid.

TCU must beat Texas and Baylor and then whoever makes the Big 12 Championship Game in order to get to the necessary 13-0 they will need to make the Playoffs, and it looks like too much of a longshot.  It is going to be rough just getting to the Sugar Bowl, and two losses most likely banishes the Frogs to the Alamo Bowl.

Elsewhere in the league, Kansas has now assured themselves of their first bowl bid in 14 years.  Texas Tech and Iowa State are now fighting it out for the last bowl bid in this league, and we believe there will be eight teams playing in the postseason.  If no Big 12 team gets to the Playoffs, there will be one extra team to fill in as an at-large bowl participant, and it is our belief that they will replace a spot that the SEC cannot fill.

Big Ten

We show three of the bowl eligible teams playing in either the Playoffs or New Year’s Six, so Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State being taken off the table means the other New Year’s Day games against SEC teams will have lesser teams.  The Citrus Bowl is likely to go to the West Division Champion that will then get clobbered in the Big Ten Championship Game.  At the moment, even with a loss this weekend, Illinois has the upper hand.  The Reliaquest (Outback) bowl bid would then probably go to the West Division runner-up. 

There should be 10 Bowl Eligible teams with many of the also-rans beating up on each other, so the Big Ten will be able to fill its allotment all the way down to the Quick Lane Bowl.  That requires Michigan State to win two more games, but we think Sparty does that.

Conference USA

It is the weakest overall conference in FBS football, but geography is on CUSA’s side.  This year, the two best teams are in the Lone Star State as UTSA and North Texas have moved to the top of the standings and figure to play in the title game.  Western Kentucky, Rice, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee are quite mediocre, but all four could end up with six losses and become bowl eligible.  The last bowl bid available figures to come down to the number six CUSA team and the number eight Mountain West team.  Because that final bowl spot is likely to be from a game east of the Mississippi River, a 6-6 CUSA team should get in over a 6-6 MWC team.

Independents

Notre Dame is not counted as an independent since they can receive an ACC bid.  Army and BYU are guaranteed bowl bids if they are bowl eligible.  BYU should sneak in, but Army is looking at a potential 5-7 or 4-8 season.

Liberty will get a bowl bid, and if the Flames win out, they could be feeling some soft Cotton in Texas.  The big surprise team that few people have taken notice to since September is Connecticut.  The Huskies could very well become bowl eligible in Jim Mora Jr.’s first season in Storrs.

Mid-American

Toledo frequently appears to be the most talented team in the MAC, but the Rockets always stub their toes and fail to win the conference championship.  They will have to look hard for something to bang their feet on this year.  Losing another game would be a major Rocket malfunction.  The rest of this league has a lot of parity, but there should be seven bowl eligible teams the first Sunday in December.  All seven will get bowl bids.  The question is, “who will be forced to spend December in Boise?”

Mountain West

This has been another down year in the MWC, and with rumors swirling that more than one team could be moving to the Pac-12 or even Big 12, this league has lost some prestige.  Having Boise State no longer be great has hurt it even more.  The Broncos lost to a so-so BYU team Saturday, and their upcoming game at Wyoming may determine the Mountain Division champion.  Air Force and Utah State should also receive bowl bids on this side of the Rockies.

On the West side, Fresno State started slowly but is 10 to 14 points better than they were in early September.  San Jose State can still win the division, but the Bulldogs look like they have this race under control.  San Diego State also figures to be bowl eligible on this side.  Once considered a contender for the division title, UNLV is looking at a 6-6 record and quite possibly becoming the lone bowl eligible team that does not receive an invitation.

Pac-12

Too much parity has been the bane of this league for several years.  This year, there is a big division of haves and have-nots, and it likely means that the league will do no better than place a team in the Rose Bowl.  Oregon’s 40+ point loss to Georgia cannot be overlooked, and if the Ducks win out and finish 12-1, two or three teams ahead of the Ducks today will have to lose.  It won’t be easy for Oregon to win out.

UCLA, USC, and Utah are still in the mix for the Pac-12 title, and all three are talented enough to beat Oregon in December.  If UCLA or USC wins out and Oregon wins out, the loser of the Pac-12 Championship Game would still have a fair chance at receiving the Cotton Bowl bid as the last NY6 team.

Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State will also be bowl eligible and will satisfy the rest of the league allotment with no extra teams.  Oregon State could play spoiler in the Civil War game with the Ducks.

SEC

The overwhelming power of this league is most likely to leave the conference one team short of filling its bowl spots.  We see Georgia and Tennessee both making the playoff, and we see LSU and Alabama both getting NY6 bids.  We also see just 10 SEC teams becoming bowl eligible now that Texas A&M has collapsed and Arkansas tripped up at home against Liberty.  The Arkansas-Missouri winner on the final weekend should get the final bowl bid.  As of today, we have the Music City Bowl being the odd bowl out needing an at-large team, and the Big 12 is full of teams with fans that would love some country music during the holidays.

Sun Belt

The SBC pecking order is unique, and it is difficult to place teams in bowls because of it.  ESPN gets the first choice of teams to place in one of the bowl games they sponsor.  It doesn’t have to be the number one team in the league, just the number one choice.  Next, the New Orleans Bowl gets to choose its team after ESPN has taken its first choice.  The 3rd and 4th teams once again are chosen by ESPN for their bowls, and then the 5th team is chosen by the Lending Tree Bowl.  There figures to be seven bowl eligible teams from this league, which is fast becoming the second best G5 conference.  All seven will receive bids.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasFlorida AtlanticBowling Green
CureSouth AlabamaAir Force
FenwayNotre DameCincinnati
New MexicoRiceSan Jose St.
L.A.Washington St.Fresno St.
Lending TreeBuffaloGeorgia Southern
Las VegasUSCKentucky
FriscoBYUSan Diego St.
Myrtle BeachBall St.Appalachian St.
Famous Idaho PotatoEastern MichiganUtah St.
Boca RatonMarshallConnecticut
New OrleansWestern KentuckyCoastal Carolina
Armed ForcesTulaneUTSA
IndependenceEast CarolinaSouthern Miss.
GasparillaLouisvilleHouston
HawaiiNorth TexasBoise St.
Quick LaneMichigan St.Miami (O)
CamelliaToledoTroy
First ResponderKansasSMU
BirminghamMemphisMiddle Tennessee
Guaranteed RateOklahoma St.Purdue
MilitaryWake ForestCentral Florida
LibertyBaylorSouth Carolina
HolidayDukeWashington
TexasOklahomaMissouri
PinstripePittsburghWisconsin
Cheez-ItNorth CarolinaKansas St.
AlamoTCUUtah
Duke’s MayoNorth Carolina St.Maryland
Tony the Tiger SunSyracuseOregon St.
ArizonaOhio UWyoming
OrangeClemsonAlabama
Music CityIowaTexas Tech
SugarLSUTexas
TaxSlayerFlorida St.Mississippi St.
PeachGeorgiaMichigan
FiestaOhio St.Tennessee
Reliaquest (Outback)MinnesotaFlorida
CitrusIllinoisOle Miss
CottonUCLALiberty
RoseOregonPenn St.
National ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

November 2, 2022

PiRate Picks–November 3, 2022

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:12 pm

This has been an upside down season for these picks in this weekly feature. In most years, we start out below .500 and then climb upward as the season continues. October and early November are usually our best weeks in most years. This year, we began as hot as can be with a 16-5 start against the spread. Since then, a steady decline has led us to try exotic options that we have not relied on in years. Last week, we incorporated a teaser parlay in our picks. It was a winner. 10 years ago, we had a successful season by relying on teasers. So, without further adieu, we try one 7-point teaser parlay and three 10-point teaser parlays. As always, please use these choices for entertainment purposes only. So, you should get a good laugh from these selections and thank your lucky stars (and intelligence) that you do like us and do not wager real money on the selections.

Selection #1: 2 team, 7-point Teaser (-130)

North Carolina – 1/2 vs. Virginia

Tulane – 1/2 vs. Tulsa

Here you can see us playing the numbers more than the teams. Lowering a spread from 7 1/2 to 1/2 gives us a free point, as the game cannot end in a tie, so 1/2 is merely a pick for an outright win.

Selection #2: 3 team, 10-point teaser (-120)

Duke + 1/2 vs. Boston College

TCU + 1/2 vs. Texas Tech

Kentucky + 8 1/2 vs. Missouri

Again, the point numbers are more important than the games. We’d prefer to move down to – 1/2 instead of + 1/2, but we expect both Duke and TCU to win, but using a Money Line would not give us good odds. As for Kentucky, moving them from a small favorite to an underdog of more than a touchdown looks promising, even though Missouri looked much better beating South Carolina while Kentucky was being demolished against Tennessee.

Selection #3: 3 team, 10-point teaser (-120)

Virginia Tech + 7 1/2 vs. Georgia Tech

Middle Tennessee + 7 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech

Mississippi State – 2 1/2 vs. Auburn

The first two games in this parlay are obvious numbers’ plays allowing us to move two short favorites to underdogs of more than a touchdown. The third leg of this parlay goes against the 2022 tide. All the teams playing under an interim head coach the week after the head coach was fired have played their best game of the year the next game. However, none of these teams were in the SEC. Carnell Williams will have a rude awakening going up against Mike Leach. Our guess is the Bulldogs will win this game by 10-14 points, so moving the number to less than a field goal looks good to us.

Selection #4: 3 team, 10-point teaser (-120)

South Carolina + 3 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

UCLA – 1/2 vs. Arizona St.

Tennessee + 18 1/2 vs. Georgia

This is the more variable parlay. South Carolina failed miserably against Missouri last week after Missouri barely held on to beat Vanderbilt. The Commodores also got an extra week to prepare for this game, so the spread is only 6 1/2 points. USC must win this game to have a good shot at bowl eligibility, while Vanderbilt has not won an SEC game since before Covid. We’ll go with the Gamecocks getting more than a field goal. UCLA moving to 1/2 point is our favorite teaser number. As for the last game in this parlay, Georgia figures to have about a 55-60% chance on winning this game, but if this game becomes a blowout of more than two touchdowns, we would tend to believe the winning team would be the team that earned the top-ranking in the first College Football Playoff Poll.

October 30, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football — October 30, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:10 am

This Week’s Games

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Kent St.Ball St.6.47.06.4
OhioBuffalo-0.4-0.4-0.6
Northern IllinoisCentral Michigan8.67.46.6
Bowling GreenWestern Michigan2.21.01.5
RiceUTEP0.00.00.0
Coastal CarolinaAppalachian St.-2.1-2.3-2.8
Boston CollegeDuke-1.6-2.9-1.6
ConnecticutMassachusetts15.716.216.1
WashingtonOregon St.1.01.91.1
Army (N)Air Force-7.6-7.2-8.1
VirginiaNorth Carolina-8.7-8.9-10.2
RutgersMichigan-24.2-24.3-27.0
North Carolina St.Wake Forest6.15.25.3
Miami (Fla.)Florida St.-5.0-5.5-6.0
Virginia TechGeorgia Tech5.86.16.2
PurdueIowa7.07.27.2
IndianaPenn St.-15.4-16.0-17.3
LouisvilleJames Madison21.619.617.2
PittsburghSyracuse3.13.01.9
KansasOklahoma St.-6.4-6.3-7.8
CincinnatiNavy20.620.522.5
TempleSouth Florida-12.6-9.8-13.3
NebraskaMinnesota-10.9-10.3-11.9
Old DominionMarshall0.0-0.9-0.5
ArkansasLiberty18.215.516.9
IllinoisMichigan St.6.08.07.0
WisconsinMaryland6.25.96.3
Kansas St.Texas3.33.14.6
OklahomaBaylor-1.1-0.9-0.9
MissouriKentucky-1.1-1.2-2.5
NorthwesternOhio St.-37.4-35.5-39.6
CharlotteWestern Kentucky-14.9-14.0-16.7
ColoradoOregon-24.3-25.3-24.8
Boise St.BYU4.35.46.1
UtahArizona23.722.924.7
San Jose St.Colorado St.17.417.318.4
Fresno St.Hawaii28.526.327.7
StanfordWashington St.1.0-1.5-1.2
USCCalifornia17.718.318.3
Louisiana TechMiddle Tennessee-4.8-4.3-6.5
Arizona St.UCLA-6.9-7.3-7.9
Texas A&MFlorida7.76.88.3
TulsaTulane-7.3-7.7-8.0
SMUHouston2.02.01.8
LouisianaTroy-0.5-0.9-0.9
Southern Miss.Georgia St.-2.3-1.5-3.2
VanderbiltSouth Carolina-12.5-11.5-13.9
Mississippi St.Auburn12.713.113.6
GeorgiaTennessee9.68.29.3
TCUTexas Tech10.09.98.9
MemphisCentral Florida-6.2-6.6-7.3
Iowa St.West Virginia7.47.57.6
Utah St.New Mexico14.214.416.0
UABUTSA1.62.52.6
LSUAlabama-11.1-10.8-12.8
North TexasFlorida Int’l.25.723.128.0
Georgia SouthernSouth Alabama0.80.50.7
Louisiana-MonroeTexas St.1.50.60.2
San Diego St.UNLV7.68.87.8
Notre DameClemson-3.8-5.0-3.7

There are no FBS vs. FCS games scheduled this week.

Teams With Bye Weeks

Akron
Arkansas St.
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida Atlantic
Miami (O)
Nevada
New Mexico St.
Ole Miss
Toledo
Wyoming

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Ohio St.134.7
2Georgia131.9
3Alabama130.5
4Michigan126.5
5Tennessee125.8
6Clemson120.0
7Penn St.118.2
8Utah117.1
9Kansas St.116.5
10Baylor116.2
11T C U115.9
12L S U115.9
13Texas115.9
14Minnesota115.4
15Oregon115.3
16Mississippi St.115.1
17Arkansas114.5
18Wisconsin114.2
19Purdue114.1
20Illinois113.3
21Ole Miss113.2
22U S C113.1
23Notre Dame112.8
24U C L A112.7
25Oklahoma St.112.7
26Louisville112.7
27Florida St.112.7
28NC State112.4
29Oklahoma112.2
30Texas A&M111.4
31Maryland111.1
32North Carolina110.2
33Iowa110.0
34Cincinnati109.7
35Oregon St.109.6
36Kentucky109.5
37Wake Forest109.4
38Michigan St.109.3
39Texas Tech108.8
40Syracuse108.2
41Washington108.0
42Pittsburgh107.8
43Iowa St.107.7
44South Carolina107.6
45UCF107.4
46Florida106.8
47Miami (Fla.)105.2
48Auburn105.0
49Missouri104.9
50Boise St.104.8
51Washington St.104.6
52Tulane103.7
53West Virginia103.2
54East Carolina103.1
55Kansas102.9
56Houston102.7
57SMU102.6
58BYU102.6
59Air Force102.5
60Arizona St.102.3
61Nebraska101.4
62Stanford101.1
63Liberty100.6
64Fresno St.99.2
65Appalachian St.99.2
66Indiana99.0
67Duke98.4
68Rutgers98.3
69Toledo98.1
70California98.0
71Virginia97.9
72Memphis97.7
73U T S A97.2
74U A B96.9
75Arizona96.3
76James Madison96.2
77Virginia Tech96.2
78W. Kentucky96.1
79Troy95.9
80San Jose St.95.7
81Georgia St.95.4
82South Alabama94.9
83Army94.8
84Northwestern94.7
85Coastal Carolina94.3
86Boston College93.9
87Marshall93.8
88N. Illinois93.8
89Tulsa93.5
90Georgia Tech93.1
91Ga. Southern93.1
92Buffalo93.0
93Louisiana92.7
94North Texas92.6
95Vanderbilt92.4
96San Diego St.92.4
97USF92.1
98Navy91.0
99Old Dominion90.8
100Southern Miss.90.6
101Miami (Ohio)90.3
102Ohio90.1
103Utah St.90.1
104Kent St.89.5
105Wyoming89.1
106Florida Atlantic89.0
107Central Mich.88.8
108Colorado87.5
109Western Mich.87.3
110U N L V87.3
111Middle Tennessee87.2
112Bowling Green86.4
113Eastern Mich.86.1
114Ball St.85.4
115U T E P84.6
116Texas St.83.7
117Connecticut83.2
118Arkansas St.82.1
119Rice82.0
120UL-Monroe81.9
121Nevada81.9
122Colorado St.81.0
123Louisiana Tech79.5
124Charlotte78.4
125New Mexico78.2
126Temple77.7
127Hawaii75.2
128Akron74.7
129New Mexico St.74.6
130Massachusetts69.7
131Florida Int’l.69.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati109.6109.0110.5109.7
UCF107.0107.6107.6107.4
Tulane103.7103.4103.9103.7
East Carolina103.0102.6103.6103.1
Houston102.8102.1103.1102.7
SMU102.8102.1102.9102.6
Memphis97.898.097.397.7
Tulsa93.993.293.493.5
USF92.891.691.992.1
Navy91.591.090.591.0
Temple77.779.276.177.7

AAC98.498.198.398.3

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.0119.8120.1120.0
Louisville113.1112.6112.4112.7
Florida St.112.9112.5112.6112.7
NC State113.1112.1112.1112.4
Wake Forest109.5109.4109.4109.4
Syracuse108.8107.8107.9108.2
Boston College94.194.892.793.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina110.3110.4109.9110.2
Pittsburgh108.9107.8106.9107.8
Miami (Fla.)105.9105.0104.6105.2
Duke98.2100.196.898.4
Virginia98.598.596.697.9
Virginia Tech96.796.795.296.2
Georgia Tech93.993.692.093.1

ACC106.0105.8104.9105.6

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Kansas St.117.1115.9116.6116.5
Baylor116.7115.6116.3116.2
T C U116.6115.3115.9115.9
Texas116.8115.8115.0115.9
Oklahoma St.113.4111.9112.8112.7
Oklahoma112.6111.7112.4112.2
Texas Tech109.0107.9109.4108.8
Iowa St.108.0107.6107.6107.7
West Virginia103.6103.1103.0103.2
Kansas104.0102.7102.0102.9

Big 12111.8110.8111.1111.2

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.134.9133.8135.5134.7
Michigan126.8126.0126.7126.5
Penn St.118.4118.2118.1118.2
Maryland111.5111.3110.5111.1
Michigan St.110.3109.0108.6109.3
Indiana100.099.297.799.0
Rutgers99.698.696.898.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota115.9115.0115.4115.4
Wisconsin114.6114.2113.7114.2
Purdue115.0114.1113.2114.1
Illinois113.3114.0112.6113.3
Iowa111.0109.9109.0110.0
Nebraska102.1101.7100.6101.4
Northwestern95.095.793.494.7

Big Ten112.0111.5110.8111.4

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A97.496.597.697.2
U A B96.596.597.796.9
W. Kentucky95.695.597.296.1
North Texas92.291.993.692.6
Florida Atlantic88.989.888.489.0
Middle Tennessee86.887.387.587.2
U T E P84.684.684.484.6
Rice82.182.181.982.0
Louisiana Tech79.580.578.579.5
Charlotte78.279.078.078.4
Florida Int’l.69.071.368.169.5

CUSA86.486.886.686.6

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame113.3111.8113.4112.8
BYU103.3101.8102.7102.6
Liberty99.7101.0101.2100.6
Army94.794.994.994.8
Connecticut83.284.481.983.2
New Mexico St.74.176.073.774.6
Massachusetts70.070.868.269.7

Independents91.291.590.991.2

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Buffalo91.693.993.793.0
Miami (Ohio)89.291.290.590.3
Ohio88.890.990.590.1
Kent St.88.990.689.189.5
Bowling Green86.586.286.486.4
Akron74.675.374.174.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.498.498.598.1
N. Illinois93.694.093.893.8
Central Mich.87.589.189.788.8
Western Mich.86.887.787.487.3
Eastern Mich.85.786.586.086.1
Ball St.85.086.185.285.4

MAC88.089.288.788.6

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.6104.2105.7104.8
Air Force102.3102.1103.0102.5
Utah St.89.990.090.390.1
Wyoming88.189.989.489.1
Colorado St.80.881.580.881.0
New Mexico78.778.677.378.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.99.398.799.799.2
San Jose St.95.195.796.395.7
San Diego St.92.492.092.692.4
U N L V87.886.287.887.3
Nevada81.582.981.281.9
Hawaii74.475.975.575.2

MWC89.689.890.089.8

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.9116.2118.2117.1
Oregon115.5115.0115.4115.3
U S C112.5113.1113.8113.1
U C L A112.3112.2113.7112.7
Oregon St.109.7109.0110.2109.6
Washington107.7107.9108.3108.0
Washington St.104.1104.6105.1104.6
Arizona St.102.3101.9102.8102.3
Stanford102.1100.2100.9101.1
California97.897.898.598.0
Arizona96.296.296.596.3
Colorado88.286.787.687.5

Pac-12105.4105.1105.9105.5

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia132.0130.9132.7131.9
Tennessee125.4125.6126.4125.8
Kentucky109.1109.5109.9109.5
South Carolina107.7107.3107.8107.6
Florida106.3107.6106.5106.8
Missouri105.0105.3104.4104.9
Vanderbilt92.693.291.492.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.3129.6131.5130.5
L S U116.2115.7115.7115.9
Mississippi St.115.8114.6115.1115.1
Arkansas114.9113.4115.1114.5
Ole Miss114.2112.7112.8113.2
Texas A&M111.0111.4111.8111.4
Auburn106.1104.5104.5105.0

SEC113.3113.0113.3113.2

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.98.099.3100.299.2
James Madison94.496.098.296.2
Georgia St.94.894.796.795.4
Coastal Carolina93.594.594.994.3
Marshall93.394.293.993.8
Ga. Southern92.692.794.093.1
Old Dominion90.890.890.990.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy95.095.897.095.9
South Alabama94.294.795.894.9
Louisiana92.092.493.592.7
Southern Miss.90.090.791.090.6
Texas St.82.884.184.183.7
Arkansas St.81.482.782.182.1
UL-Monroe81.882.281.881.9

Sun Belt91.191.892.491.8

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.2
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12111.2
4Atlantic Coast105.6
5Pac-12105.5
6American Athletic98.3
7Sun Belt91.8
8Independents91.2
9Mountain West89.8
10Mid-American88.6
11Conference USA86.6

Bowl & Playoff Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasNorth TexasBuffalo
CureGeorgia SouthernLiberty
FenwayNotre DameCincinnati
New MexicoWestern KentuckyWyoming
L.A.UtahSan Jose St.
Lending TreeMiami (O)South Alabama
Las VegasUSCLSU
FriscoSMUSan Diego St.
Myrtle BeachAppalachian St.Memphis
Famous Idaho PotatoOhio UAir Force
Boca RatonHoustonTroy
New OrleansFlorida Int’l.Coastal Carolina
Armed ForcesTulaneUTSA
IndependenceEast CarolinaArmy
GasparillaMiami (Fla.)South Carolina
HawaiiUABFresno St.
Quick LaneIowaBowling Green
CamelliaToledoSouthern Miss.
First ResponderKansasMarshall
BirminghamPittsburghMissouri
Guaranteed RateBaylorMaryland
MilitaryWake ForestCentral Florida
LibertyTexasTexas A&M
HolidayVirginiaOregon St.
TexasTexas TechArkansas
PinstripeSyracuseWisconsin
Cheez-ItNorth Carolina St.Oklahoma
AlamoOklahoma St.Washington St.
Duke’s MayoDukePurdue
Tony the Tiger SunLouisvilleWashington
ArizonaEastern MichiganUtah St.
OrangeNorth CarolinaAlabama
Music CityMinnesotaFlorida
SugarTennesseeKansas St.
TaxSlayerFlorida St.Mississippi St.
PeachGeorgiaClemson
FiestaOhio St.TCU
Reliaquest (Outback)IllinoisKentucky
CitrusPenn St.Ole Miss
CottonUCLABoise St.
RoseOregonMichigan
National ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

Note: 84 FBS teams are projected to become bowl eligible for 82 available bowl slots. Should the NCAA & ESPN agree to add an extra bowl game like last year, Middle Tennessee State and UNLV would meet in that game.

October 24, 2022

PiRate Ratings Pro Football–Week 8, October 27-31, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Tampa BayBaltimore3.93.13.1
Jacksonville Denver-4.3-4.0-3.2
AtlantaCarolina3.94.34.8
DallasChicago15.213.814.7
DetroitMiami-3.0-2.7-2.6
MinnesotaArizona5.84.95.3
New OrleansLas Vegas-1.6-3.0-2.0
N.Y. JetsNew England1.31.80.8
PhiladelphiaPittsburgh13.312.813.0
HoustonTennessee-6.5-5.2-6.2
IndianapolisWashington6.46.96.7
LA RamsSan Francisco3.73.12.9
SeattleN.Y. Giants3.21.93.3
BuffaloGreen Bay14.115.615.3
ClevelandCincinnati-5.0-5.5-6.0

This Week’s Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
Tampa BayBaltimore44
Jacksonville Denver38
AtlantaCarolina45
DallasChicago38
DetroitMiami45
MinnesotaArizona47.5
New OrleansLas Vegas51
N.Y. JetsNew England45
PhiladelphiaPittsburgh43
HoustonTennessee41.5
IndianapolisWashington40.5
LA RamsSan Francisco41.5
SeattleN.Y. Giants42
BuffaloGreen Bay44.5
ClevelandCincinnati46.5

Note: Jacksonville vs. Denver game at Wembley Stadium in London.

Teams With Bye Weeks

Kansas City

LA Chargers

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo114.2114.3114.5114.3235-1
New England100.9100.9101.5101.121.53-4
N.Y. Jets100.2100.8100.3100.423.55-2
Miami98.698.798.498.6204-3

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Cincinnati106.1105.7106.2106.0234-3
Baltimore103.4103.1103.3103.3224-3
Cleveland98.697.797.798.023.52-5
Pittsburgh96.296.096.296.120.52-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee99.299.699.599.4214-2
Indianapolis99.098.898.898.9213-3-1
Jacksonville95.296.295.595.622.52-5
Houston89.791.490.390.420.51-4-1

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City110.8110.4110.8110.729.55-2
Las Vegas104.2104.4103.9104.226.52-4
Denver99.5100.298.799.515.52-5
LA Chargers96.897.596.697.028.54-3

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia106.9106.4106.7106.722.56-0
Dallas105.9105.3106.1105.820.55-2
N.Y. Giants96.898.097.997.6196-1
Washington95.694.895.195.219.53-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay101.9100.6100.9101.121.53-4
Minnesota100.9100.5100.9100.7245-1
Chicago93.794.594.494.217.53-4
Detroit93.093.293.093.1251-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay104.2103.3103.4103.6223-4
New Orleans99.698.498.999.024.52-5
Atlanta95.496.096.395.9253-4
Carolina94.094.293.994.0203-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
LA Rams102.6102.1102.0102.2213-3
San Francisco101.9102.0102.2102.020.53-4
Arizona97.898.398.298.123.53-4
Seattle96.996.998.297.4234-3

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Buffalo
2Kansas City
3Cincinnati
4Tennessee
5Baltimore
6N.Y. Jets
7Miami

NFC Seeding
1Philadelphia
2Minnesota
3Seattle
4Atlanta
5N.Y. Giants
6Dallas
7LA Rams

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Miami
Cincinnati over N.Y. Jets
Baltimore over Tennessee
LA Rams over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas
N.Y. Giants over Atlanta

Divisional Round
Buffalo over Baltimore
Kansas City over Cincinnati
LA Rams over Philadelphia
Seattle over N.Y. Giants

Conference Championship
Buffalo over Kansas City
Seattle over LA Rams

Super Bowl 57 (Glendale, AZ)
Buffalo over Seattle

October 23, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 27-29, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
North Carolina St.Virginia Tech21.119.822.3
Southern Miss.Louisiana-2.2-2.1-3.4
Washington St.Utah-10.2-8.9-10.9
BYUEast Carolina4.02.82.7
Florida Int’l.Louisiana Tech-10.3-9.0-10.6
NebraskaIllinois-6.0-6.9-6.4
ConnecticutBoston College-12.4-12.1-12.7
MarshallCoastal Carolina5.65.65.1
MassachusettsNew Mexico St.-0.1-1.4-1.4
AkronMiami (O)-12.5-13.8-14.3
South CarolinaMissouri10.39.711.7
TennesseeKentucky14.013.713.9
West VirginiaTCU-10.0-9.2-9.9
Florida St.Georgia Tech21.421.223.1
Penn St.Ohio St.-13.5-12.6-14.6
LouisvilleWake Forest2.11.41.0
SyracuseNotre Dame2.63.51.9
MichiganMichigan St.17.617.919.3
VirginiaMiami (Fla.)-4.6-3.7-5.4
Central FloridaCincinnati-0.50.7-1.0
IowaNorthwestern19.016.718.4
Eastern MichiganToledo-9.6-10.2-11.2
Georgia St.Old Dominion4.23.75.8
North CarolinaPittsburgh0.92.32.5
MinnesotaRutgers16.416.318.7
Arkansas St.South Alabama-6.0-5.2-6.5
Iowa St.Oklahoma1.52.41.7
ColoradoArizona St.-11.3-12.8-13.0
Boise St.Colorado St.23.822.424.7
RiceCharlotte12.812.213.4
ArizonaUSC-14.0-14.8-15.6
Fresno St.San Diego St.10.510.411.0
UCLAStanford10.412.413.2
CaliforniaOregon-14.4-13.8-13.6
HoustonSouth Florida13.013.614.3
TulsaSMU-6.0-5.8-6.2
Kansas St.Oklahoma St.-2.7-2.6-3.0
Texas TechBaylor1.01.12.3
Texas A&MOle Miss0.01.92.2
AuburnArkansas-5.0-4.9-6.5
NavyTemple17.214.818.4
Western KentuckyNorth Texas14.214.614.8
GeorgiaFlorida26.123.326.8
HawaiiWyoming-10.5-10.9-11.0
Florida AtlanticUAB-7.7-7.0-9.4
UTEPMiddle Tennessee3.12.62.4
San Jose St.Nevada16.815.918.8

Note: Georgia vs. Florida is neutral site game in Jacksonville

FBS vs. FCS Games This Week

FBSFCSPiRate
Appalachian St.Robert Morris43.8

Teams With Bye Weeks

Air Force
Alabama
Army
Ball St.
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Michigan
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Southern
Indiana
James Madison
Kansas
Kent St.
Liberty
Louisiana-Monroe
LSU
Maryland
Memphis
Mississippi St.
New Mexico
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Oregon St.
Purdue
Texas
Texas St.
Troy
Tulane
UNLV
Utah St.
UTSA
Vanderbilt
Washington
Western Michigan
Wisconsin

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Ohio St.134.7
2Georgia132.0
3Alabama130.2
4Michigan126.3
5Tennessee123.1
6Clemson119.7
7Penn St.118.2
8Oklahoma St.118.0
9Utah117.3
10T C U115.9
11L S U115.6
12Texas115.6
13Oregon115.3
14Mississippi St.114.8
15Minnesota114.1
16Arkansas114.0
17Wisconsin113.9
18Purdue113.8
19U S C113.8
20NC State113.6
21Baylor113.3
22Ole Miss113.1
23Florida St.112.5
24Kansas St.112.2
25Kentucky112.2
26Wake Forest112.1
27Illinois112.1
28Texas Tech111.7
29Texas A&M111.5
30U C L A111.4
31Notre Dame110.8
32Maryland110.8
33Oklahoma110.7
34Louisville110.6
35Syracuse110.5
36Cincinnati110.3
37South Carolina110.2
38Iowa109.9
39Pittsburgh109.7
40Iowa St.109.6
41Michigan St.109.5
42Oregon St.109.3
43North Carolina108.6
44Washington107.7
45UCF107.1
46Florida106.6
47Auburn105.5
48Miami (Fla.)105.3
49Washington St.104.3
50Tulane103.4
51Boise St.103.2
52West Virginia103.2
53BYU103.1
54East Carolina102.9
55Houston102.7
56Nebraska102.6
57Missouri102.6
58Arizona St.102.6
59Kansas102.6
60Stanford102.4
61SMU102.3
62Air Force102.3
63Liberty100.4
64W. Kentucky100.2
65Rutgers100.0
66Fresno St.99.6
67Appalachian St.99.1
68Indiana98.7
69Toledo98.5
70California98.3
71U A B98.2
72Duke98.1
73Virginia97.7
74Memphis97.5
75U T S A97.0
76Boston College96.3
77San Jose St.96.1
78James Madison96.0
79Arizona96.0
80Troy95.7
81Virginia Tech95.5
82Marshall95.4
83Northwestern94.8
84Army94.6
85Georgia St.94.3
86Louisiana94.3
87Tulsa93.8
88N. Illinois93.6
89Georgia Tech93.6
90Coastal Carolina93.0
91Ga. Southern92.9
92South Alabama92.8
93Buffalo92.8
94Old Dominion92.2
95Vanderbilt92.1
96USF92.1
97San Diego St.92.0
98Navy91.7
99Miami (Ohio)90.2
100Ohio89.9
101Utah St.89.9
102Wyoming89.3
103Kent St.89.3
104Southern Miss.89.2
105Central Mich.88.6
106North Texas88.2
107Florida Atlantic87.7
108Colorado87.2
109Western Mich.87.1
110U N L V87.1
111Bowling Green86.2
112U T E P86.0
113Rice85.9
114Middle Tennessee85.8
115Eastern Mich.85.7
116Ball St.85.2
117Arkansas St.84.4
118Texas St.83.5
119Colorado St.82.6
120UL-Monroe81.7
121Nevada81.5
122Connecticut81.4
123Louisiana Tech80.9
124New Mexico78.0
125Temple77.5
126Charlotte75.6
127Akron75.2
128Hawaii75.0
129New Mexico St.73.9
130Massachusetts70.4
131Florida Int’l.68.4

Note: We have been receiving a large number of comments concerning the ratings, almost all from newcomers to his site. The overwhelming question most asked is why a team is ranked ahead of a team that beat them and is ahead of them in the conference standings. To those new to this site, our ratings are not rankings like the AP and Coaches’ polls. We are not grading teams based on what they have done so far . Our goal is to predict the future. Thus Alabama is rated ahead of Tennessee because it is this system’s prediction that the Tide would beat the Vols on a neutral field if they were to play this week.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati110.2109.6111.2110.3
UCF106.7107.3107.2107.1
Tulane103.4103.1103.6103.4
East Carolina102.8102.5103.4102.9
Houston102.8102.1103.1102.7
SMU102.6101.8102.5102.3
Memphis97.697.897.197.5
Tulsa94.193.593.893.8
USF92.891.691.992.1
Navy92.291.591.591.7
Temple77.579.275.677.5

AAC98.498.298.398.3

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson119.7119.5119.8119.7
NC State114.2113.1113.5113.6
Florida St.112.7112.3112.5112.5
Wake Forest112.0112.1112.2112.1
Louisville111.2110.5110.2110.6
Syracuse111.0110.2110.2110.5
Boston College96.497.295.296.3

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh110.8109.6108.8109.7
North Carolina108.7108.9108.3108.6
Miami (Fla.)106.0105.1104.8105.3
Duke97.999.896.598.1
Virginia98.498.496.497.7
Virginia Tech96.196.294.395.5
Georgia Tech94.494.192.493.6

ACC106.4106.2105.4106.0

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.118.6117.2118.2118.0
T C U116.6115.3115.9115.9
Texas116.5115.5114.7115.6
Baylor113.9112.7113.2113.3
Kansas St.112.9111.6112.2112.2
Texas Tech111.8110.8112.5111.7
Oklahoma111.2110.1110.8110.7
Iowa St.109.7109.5109.5109.6
West Virginia103.6103.1103.0103.2
Kansas103.7102.4101.7102.6

Big 12111.8110.8111.2111.3

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.134.9133.8135.6134.7
Michigan126.6125.7126.5126.3
Penn St.118.4118.2118.0118.2
Maryland111.2111.0110.2110.8
Michigan St.110.5109.3108.8109.5
Rutgers101.2100.398.4100.0
Indiana99.798.997.498.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota114.6113.6114.1114.1
Wisconsin114.3113.9113.4113.9
Purdue114.7113.8112.9113.8
Illinois112.2112.8111.3112.1
Iowa111.0109.7108.9109.9
Nebraska103.2102.9101.9102.6
Northwestern95.095.993.594.8

Big Ten112.0111.4110.8111.4

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky99.699.6101.4100.2
U A B97.897.999.098.2
U T S A97.296.397.497.0
North Texas87.987.589.188.2
Florida Atlantic87.688.487.187.7
U T E P86.086.085.986.0
Rice85.885.985.985.9
Middle Tennessee85.485.986.085.8
Louisiana Tech80.881.880.080.9
Charlotte75.576.275.075.6
Florida Int’l.68.070.366.968.4

CUSA86.586.986.786.7

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame111.4109.7111.4110.8
BYU103.8102.2103.2103.1
Liberty99.5100.8101.0100.4
Army94.594.794.794.6
Connecticut81.582.680.081.4
New Mexico St.73.475.372.973.9
Massachusetts70.771.569.070.4

Independents90.791.090.390.7

Mid-American Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Buffalo91.493.793.592.8
Miami (Ohio)89.191.190.490.2
Ohio88.690.790.389.9
Kent St.88.790.488.989.3
Bowling Green86.386.086.286.2
Akron75.175.874.675.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.698.899.198.5
N. Illinois93.493.893.693.6
Central Mich.87.388.989.588.6
Western Mich.86.687.587.287.1
Eastern Mich.85.586.185.485.7
Ball St.84.885.985.085.2

MAC87.989.188.688.5

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.1102.5104.1103.2
Air Force102.1101.9102.8102.3
Utah St.89.789.890.189.9
Wyoming88.290.189.789.3
Colorado St.82.383.282.482.6
New Mexico78.578.477.178.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.99.699.1100.299.6
San Jose St.95.496.096.996.1
San Diego St.92.191.692.192.0
U N L V87.686.087.687.1
Nevada81.282.680.681.5
Hawaii74.375.775.275.0

MWC89.589.789.989.7

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah117.1116.4118.6117.3
Oregon115.5115.0115.4115.3
U S C113.0113.7114.6113.8
U C L A110.9110.9112.4111.4
Oregon St.109.4108.7109.9109.3
Washington107.4107.6108.0107.7
Washington St.103.9104.4104.7104.3
Arizona St.102.4102.2103.2102.6
Stanford103.5101.5102.2102.4
California98.198.198.898.3
Arizona96.095.996.096.0
Colorado88.186.487.287.2

Pac-12105.4105.1105.9105.5

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia132.2130.9133.0132.0
Tennessee122.8122.9123.6123.1
Kentucky111.7112.2112.7112.2
South Carolina110.2109.8110.6110.2
Florida106.1107.6106.2106.6
Missouri102.8103.1101.9102.6
Vanderbilt92.392.991.192.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.0129.3131.2130.2
L S U115.9115.4115.4115.6
Mississippi St.115.5114.3114.8114.8
Arkansas114.5112.9114.6114.0
Ole Miss114.1112.6112.7113.1
Texas A&M111.1111.5111.9111.5
Auburn106.5105.0105.0105.5

SEC113.3112.9113.2113.1

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.97.999.2100.199.1
James Madison94.295.898.096.0
Marshall94.895.895.695.4
Georgia St.93.893.595.694.3
Coastal Carolina92.393.293.593.0
Ga. Southern92.492.593.892.9
Old Dominion92.192.392.392.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy94.895.696.895.7
Louisiana93.594.095.394.3
South Alabama92.292.793.692.8
Southern Miss.88.889.489.589.2
Arkansas St.83.785.084.684.4
Texas St.82.683.983.983.5
UL-Monroe81.682.081.681.7

Sun Belt91.191.892.591.8

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.1
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12111.3
4Atlantic Coast106.0
5Pac-12105.5
6American Athletic98.3
7Sun Belt91.8
8Independents90.7
9Mountain West89.7
10Mid-American88.5
11Conference USA86.7

Bowl & Playoff Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSABuffalo
CureTroyLiberty
FenwaySyracuseTulane
New MexicoNorth TexasWyoming
L.A.UtahBoise St.
Lending TreeMiami (O)South Alabama
Las VegasUSCArkansas
FriscoUtah St.Kansas
Myrtle BeachMarshallIowa St.
Famous Idaho PotatoToledoSan Jose St.
Boca RatonCoastal CarolinaAir Force
New OrleansUTEPLousiana
Armed ForcesHoustonWestern Kentucky
IndependenceSMUAppalachian St.
GasparillaFloridaEast Carolina
HawaiiUABFresno St.
Quick LaneEastern MichiganArmy
CamelliaBowling GreenSouthern Miss.
First ResponderStanfordBYU
BirminghamLouisvilleGeorgia Southern
Guaranteed RateTexas TechWisconsin
MilitaryDukeCentral Florida
LibertyBaylorOle Miss
HolidayVirginiaWashington
TexasOklahomaMississippi St.
PinstripeNotre DameNebraska
Cheez-ItTexasNorth Carolina St.
AlamoKansas St.UCLA
Duke’s MayoWake ForestMaryland
Tony the Tiger SunPittsburghOregon St.
ArizonaOhio USan Diego St.
OrangeAlabamaNorth Carolina
Music CityMinnesotaTexas A&M
SugarTennesseeOklahoma St.
TaxSlayerFlorida St.South Carolina
PeachGeorgiaClemson
FiestaOhio St.TCU
Tampa BayPurdueKentucky
CitrusIllinoisLSU
CottonPenn St.Cincinnati
RoseOregonMichigan
National ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

Note: For the first time this year more than 82 FBS teams were projected to be bowl eligible, and no 5-7 teams made this list. Five projected bowl eligible teams were omitted from this projection: Ball St., Middle Tennessee, Rice, UNLV, and Western Michigan.

October 16, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 19-22, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:54 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Georgia St.2.24.02.2
Georgia TechVirginia-0.2-0.30.1
South AlabamaTroy0.30.20.1
TempleTulsa-14.3-11.9-16.4
Western KentuckyUAB5.04.95.8
TCUKansas St.6.06.05.9
ArmyLouisiana-Monroe13.613.213.4
Miami (Fla.)Duke18.214.819.0
South CarolinaTexas A&M1.60.50.7
RutgersIndiana4.13.83.2
Ohio St.Iowa22.722.725.5
Wake ForestBoston College15.914.817.1
LouisvillePittsburgh1.21.52.0
East CarolinaCentral Florida-7.5-8.8-7.8
LibertyBYU-9.7-6.7-7.8
NavyHouston-5.3-5.1-5.9
BuffaloToledo-6.3-5.3-6.2
Central MichiganBowling Green8.410.811.4
Kent St.Akron16.417.817.7
Miami (O)Western Michigan7.99.39.1
OhioNorthern Illinois-4.6-2.8-3.1
James MadisonMarshall5.36.39.3
Old DominionGeorgia Southern3.73.92.6
ClemsonSyracuse12.113.013.4
WyomingUtah St.-1.30.7-0.6
Colorado St.Hawaii11.511.211.2
New MexicoFresno St.-14.3-13.4-15.9
New Mexico St.San Jose St.-19.6-18.2-21.4
Ball St.Eastern Michigan2.73.33.3
Notre DameUNLV27.127.127.2
Oregon St.Colorado21.722.723.1
Louisiana TechRice-2.7-1.8-3.8
StanfordArizona St.4.32.52.3
CaliforniaWashington-6.0-6.5-5.8
OregonUCLA6.86.14.6
UTSANorth Texas12.312.011.5
Oklahoma St.Texas4.94.46.3
AlabamaMississippi St.16.717.018.4
LSUOle Miss0.01.10.7
BaylorKansas13.013.114.1
Texas TechWest Virginia4.83.85.8
SMUCincinnati-5.2-5.3-6.5
TulaneMemphis7.66.77.9
MissouriVanderbilt14.214.115.1
Texas St.Southern Miss.-3.3-2.5-2.3
MarylandNorthwestern20.819.822.0
CharlotteFlorida Int’l.18.216.619.1
WisconsinPurdue0.81.11.3
LouisianaArkansas St.11.19.911.6
UTEPFlorida Atlantic0.7-0.30.9
Air ForceBoise St.3.53.93.4
Penn St.Minnesota1.72.51.3
NevadaSan Diego St.-7.4-5.5-7.6

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBSFCSPiRate
TennesseeUT-Martin40.4

Teams With Byes

Arizona
Arkansas
Auburn
Coastal Carolina
Connecticut
Florida
Florida St.
Georgia
Illinois
Iowa St.
Kentucky
Massachusetts
Michigan
Michigan St.
Middle Tennessee
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Carolina St.
Oklahoma
South Florida
USC
Utah
Virginia Tech
Washington St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Ohio St.132.9
2Georgia131.7
3Alabama129.7
4Michigan126.0
5Tennessee122.6
6Clemson120.1
7Oklahoma St.117.9
8Utah117.0
9Minnesota116.9
10Penn St.115.7
11Texas115.7
12Ole Miss115.6
13T C U115.4
14Mississippi St.115.3
15Purdue114.8
16Oregon114.8
17Arkansas113.7
18U S C113.5
19NC State113.3
20L S U113.1
21Baylor113.1
22Wisconsin112.9
23Kansas St.112.4
24Iowa112.3
25Florida St.112.2
26Maryland112.0
27U C L A111.9
28Kentucky111.9
29Texas A&M111.9
30Illinois111.8
31Notre Dame111.0
32Pittsburgh110.9
33Wake Forest110.8
34Cincinnati110.8
35Oklahoma110.4
36UCF110.4
37Syracuse110.3
38South Carolina109.8
39Louisville109.4
40Iowa St.109.3
41Michigan St.109.2
42Miami (Fla.)109.2
43Texas Tech108.6
44North Carolina108.3
45Oregon St.108.0
46Washington107.6
47BYU107.3
48West Virginia106.8
49Florida106.3
50Auburn105.2
51Washington St.104.0
52Missouri103.4
53Air Force103.1
54Tulane103.0
55Kansas102.7
56Stanford102.5
57Arizona St.102.5
58Boise St.102.4
59Nebraska102.3
60SMU102.1
61Houston101.6
62W. Kentucky100.3
63Toledo99.9
64East Carolina99.9
65Rutgers99.7
66Indiana99.0
67California98.4
68Memphis98.1
69U A B98.1
70James Madison97.9
71Boston College97.9
72Fresno St.97.7
73U T S A97.5
74Virginia97.2
75Georgia St.96.9
76Appalachian St.96.8
77Liberty96.2
78San Jose St.96.1
79Arizona95.7
80Troy95.4
81Virginia Tech95.2
82Duke94.9
83N. Illinois94.7
84Tulsa94.1
85Northwestern94.1
86Georgia Tech94.1
87Louisiana93.6
88Army93.5
89Marshall93.5
90South Alabama93.1
91Navy93.1
92Old Dominion93.0
93Coastal Carolina92.7
94Ga. Southern92.1
95Vanderbilt91.9
96USF91.8
97Miami (Ohio)91.8
98Buffalo91.5
99San Diego St.91.4
100Central Mich.91.4
101Utah St.91.3
102Kent St.89.9
103Southern Miss.88.9
104Ohio88.7
105Colorado88.5
106North Texas88.0
107Wyoming87.9
108Florida Atlantic87.9
109U N L V86.9
110Rice86.0
111U T E P85.8
112Ball St.85.6
113Middle Tennessee85.6
114Western Mich.85.5
115Arkansas St.85.2
116Eastern Mich.85.0
117Texas St.83.8
118Bowling Green83.7
119UL-Monroe83.1
120Colorado St.83.1
121Nevada82.0
122Connecticut81.2
123Louisiana Tech80.8
124Charlotte80.2
125New Mexico80.2
126Temple77.4
127Hawaii74.8
128Akron74.6
129New Mexico St.73.9
130Massachusetts70.2
131Florida Int’l.64.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati110.6110.0111.8110.8
UCF109.9110.7110.6110.4
Tulane103.2102.7103.2103.0
SMU102.5101.7102.2102.1
Houston101.8101.0101.9101.6
East Carolina99.999.4100.399.9
Memphis98.198.597.898.1
Tulsa94.493.794.394.1
Navy93.592.993.093.1
USF92.591.391.691.8
Temple77.579.375.477.4

AAC98.598.398.498.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.0120.0120.4120.1
NC State113.9112.8113.2113.3
Florida St.112.4112.0112.2112.2
Wake Forest110.8110.7110.9110.8
Syracuse111.0110.0109.9110.3
Louisville110.1109.3109.0109.4
Boston College97.998.996.897.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh111.9110.8110.0110.9
Miami (Fla.)109.9108.7109.0109.2
North Carolina108.4108.6108.0108.3
Virginia98.097.995.897.2
Virginia Tech95.895.994.095.2
Duke94.796.993.094.9
Georgia Tech94.894.693.094.1

ACC106.4106.2105.4106.0

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.118.5117.0118.1117.9
Texas116.6115.7114.8115.7
T C U116.1114.8115.4115.4
Baylor113.8112.6113.0113.1
Kansas St.113.1111.8112.4112.4
Oklahoma110.9109.8110.5110.4
Iowa St.109.4109.2109.2109.3
Texas Tech108.8107.6109.4108.6
West Virginia107.1106.8106.6106.8
Kansas103.8102.5101.9102.7

Big 12111.8110.8111.1111.2

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.133.1131.9133.8132.9
Michigan126.3125.4126.2126.0
Penn St.116.0115.8115.4115.7
Maryland112.3112.1111.6112.0
Michigan St.110.2109.0108.5109.2
Rutgers101.0100.098.099.7
Indiana99.999.297.899.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota117.3116.3117.0116.9
Purdue115.6114.8114.0114.8
Wisconsin113.4112.9112.3112.9
Iowa113.4112.2111.3112.3
Illinois111.9112.5111.0111.8
Nebraska102.9102.6101.6102.3
Northwestern94.495.392.694.1

Big Ten112.0111.4110.8111.4

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky99.799.7101.6100.3
U A B97.797.898.898.1
U T S A97.696.897.997.5
North Texas87.887.388.988.0
Florida Atlantic87.788.687.387.9
Rice85.986.086.186.0
U T E P85.985.885.785.8
Middle Tennessee85.285.785.885.6
Louisiana Tech80.781.779.880.8
Charlotte80.180.879.880.2
Florida Int’l.64.466.763.164.7

CUSA86.687.086.886.8

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame111.6109.9111.6111.0
BYU108.0106.3107.5107.3
Liberty95.396.796.796.2
Army93.593.693.593.5
Connecticut81.382.479.881.2
New Mexico St.73.475.372.973.9
Massachusetts70.571.368.870.2

Independents90.590.890.190.5

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)90.592.792.191.8
Buffalo90.192.492.091.5
Kent St.89.191.089.689.9
Ohio87.589.689.188.7
Bowling Green84.083.583.583.7
Akron74.775.273.974.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo98.9100.1100.699.9
N. Illinois94.594.994.894.7
Central Mich.89.991.792.591.4
Ball St.85.186.385.585.6
Western Mich.85.285.985.585.5
Eastern Mich.84.985.484.685.0

MAC87.989.188.688.5

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Air Force102.8102.7103.7103.1
Boise St.102.4101.7103.2102.4
Utah St.91.191.191.791.3
Wyoming86.888.888.187.9
Colorado St.82.783.783.083.1
New Mexico80.680.779.380.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.97.897.198.397.7
San Jose St.95.496.096.996.1
San Diego St.91.691.191.491.4
U N L V87.485.887.486.9
Nevada81.783.181.382.0
Hawaii74.275.574.974.8

MWC89.589.889.989.7

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.8116.1118.3117.0
Oregon115.1114.5114.7114.8
U S C112.7113.4114.3113.5
U C L A111.3111.4113.1111.9
Oregon St.108.1107.4108.6108.0
Washington107.3107.6107.8107.6
Washington St.103.6104.1104.4104.0
Stanford103.6101.6102.3102.5
Arizona St.102.3102.1103.1102.5
California98.298.199.098.4
Arizona95.795.695.795.7
Colorado89.487.788.588.5

Pac-12105.3105.0105.8105.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia131.9130.6132.7131.7
Tennessee122.3122.4123.1122.6
Kentucky111.4111.9112.4111.9
South Carolina110.0109.4110.1109.8
Florida105.8107.3105.9106.3
Missouri103.4103.8102.8103.4
Vanderbilt92.292.790.791.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.6128.8130.7129.7
Ole Miss116.5115.0115.2115.6
Mississippi St.115.9114.8115.3115.3
Arkansas114.2112.6114.3113.7
L S U113.5113.0112.9113.1
Texas A&M111.3111.9112.4111.9
Auburn106.2104.7104.7105.2

SEC113.2112.8113.1113.0

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
James Madison95.997.7100.297.9
Georgia St.96.496.098.496.9
Appalachian St.95.697.097.696.8
Marshall93.193.993.493.5
Old Dominion92.893.193.193.0
Coastal Carolina92.092.993.292.7
Ga. Southern91.791.793.092.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy94.695.396.495.4
Louisiana92.993.294.593.6
South Alabama92.493.094.093.1
Southern Miss.88.689.189.188.9
Arkansas St.84.385.885.485.2
Texas St.82.884.284.383.8
UL-Monroe82.983.483.183.1

Sun Belt91.291.992.691.9

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.0
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12111.2
4Atlantic Coast106.0
5Pac-12105.4
6American Athletic98.4
7Sun Belt91.9
8Independents90.5
9Mountain West89.7
10Mid-American88.5
11Conference USA86.8

This Week’s Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSABuffalo
CureCoastal CarolinaBYU
FenwayPittsburghCentral Florida
New MexicoRiceFresno St.
L.A.UtahBoise St.
Lending TreeBall St.Marshall
Las VegasUSCMississippi St.
FriscoUtah St.Western Kentucky
Myrtle BeachMiddle TennesseeAppalachian St.
Famous Idaho PotatoEastern MichiganSan Jose St.
Boca RatonGeorgia SouthernStanford 5
New OrleansNorth TexasTroy
Armed ForcesHoustonTexas St.
IndependenceSMUArmy
GasparillaDukeWashington St.
HawaiiUTEPAir Force
Quick LaneOhio ULiberty
CamelliaToledoSouth Alabama
First ResponderUABUNLV
BirminghamSouthern Miss.Old Dominion
Guaranteed RateWisconsinWyoming
MilitaryLouisville 5Tulane
LibertyOklahomaLSU
HolidaySyracuseUCLA
TexasKansasFlorida
PinstripeNotre DameMinnesota
Cheez-ItMiami (Fla.)Texas
AlamoKansas St.Washington
Duke’s MayoWake ForestPurdue
Tony the Tiger SunNorth Carolina St.Oregon St.
ArizonaMiami (O)San Diego St.
OrangeNorth CarolinaAlabama
Music CityMarylandTexas A&M
SugarTennesseeOklahoma St.
TaxSlayerFlorida St.South Carolina
PeachGeorgiaTCU
FiestaOhio St.Clemson
Tampa BayIllinoisKentucky
CitrusPenn St.Arkansas
CottonOle MissCincinnati
RoseOregonMichigan
National ChampionshipGeorgiaOhio St.

5″ after team name indicates a team with an expected 5-7 record that has a high enough APR score to earn a bowl bid over other 5-7 schools.

October 12, 2022

PiRate Picks for October 13-15, 2022

Crash! Like a meteorite falling to Earth, our picks free-fell and left a tail of fire as they fell. In just two lousy weeks, a 16-5 start with an incredible profit has been reduced to a minor loss after failing to pick a single correct selection last week.

Of course, the good news for those of you that read this strictly for enjoyment is that your profit and loss statement has remained the same as ours, nothing wagered and nothing lost or gained, so we can come right back with some selections, knowing we will still have the same amount of money in our real accounts, regardless of what our imaginary accounts indicate.

This week, we add a couple of teaser selections, something we have used in the past, sometimes with very successful results and sometimes stinkers. When we issue teaser selections, it is more important which numbers the teasers pass than the teams involved. We look to change the margin in a way that picks up a large percentage in historical actual spread. Teasing through 3, 6, 7, 10, and 13 points picks up some extra oomph. Additionally, being able to tease a favorite down to just 1 point is another good option. And, if you can tease a favorite into an underdog status of 3 1/2 points or 7 1/2 points, you enjoy some extra advantage.

We haven’t forgotten money line parlays this week, as we have a 3-team parlay going off at better than 2-1 odds, something that won big for us in September.

Without further adieu, here are this week’s selections.

Selection #1: Iowa State +17 vs. Texas

When the margin went from 16 1/2 to 17 late Wednesday afternoon (when this feature is composed), this became a play for us. While we believe this is a single-digit game, we waited for that precious half-point. Iowa State’s defense can slow down the combination of Ewers and Robinson, maybe not enough to win, but enough to lose by 7-13 points.

Selection #2: North Carolina State + 3 1/2 vs. Syracuse

Syracuse being undefeated is a feel good story, but we think the wrong team is favored, and getting that hook onto the 3 makes it quite attractive for our system.

Selection #3: 6-point teaser with 2 games @ -110

Alabama -1 vs. Tennessee

North Carolina -1 vs. Duke

As we mentioned above, teasing a favorite down to 1 point is something we like. We believe the Tide and Tar Heels will both win, and teasing down to 1 is valuable

Selection #4: 9-point teaser with 3 games @ -107

Clemson +5 1/2 vs. Florida St.

Arkansas + 7 1/2 vs. BYU

Illinois + 15 1/2 vs. Minnesota

Taking Clemson from -3 1/2 to +5 1/2 goes through 3 on both sides, and we like the percentage advantage knowing that a 3-point CU loss still wins for this selection. Taking Arkansas from favorite to underdog by more than 7 and knowing that K. J. Jefferson is now likely to play makes the second leg very attractive. Taking a hot home dog and making them more than a 2-touchdown underdog in a game we believe the Illini have a 35-40% chance of winning completes the trio.

Selection #5: Money Line Parlay @ +238.81

Baylor over West Virginia

Miami (O) over Bowling Green

Oregon State over Washington State

West Virginia coach Neal Brown, hoping to not be fired in midseason like five others have been fired so far, has made statements that he knew turning around the Mountaineer program would be a long process. When a coach says this, he is admitting that his team is outmanned. Brown’s job is only a little more secure than Bryan Harsin’s job at the moment, while Baylor is still in the Big 12 race to finish in second place and make the conference championship game.

Miami of Ohio might lose another conference game this year, but we can’t see woeful Bowling Green being that team.

Oregon State and Washington State should be an excellent game to watch as an impartial football fan. The two teams are stronger than many give credit for, and we think the Beavers’ home field advantage is worth just enough to give OSU a slight advantage.

Remember: Dont wager real money on these games!

Special Note: We here at the PiRate Ratings do not report on rumors, as we previously were professional sports journalists. In order to report on a story, we wanted two different sources independent of each other to give us nearly identical information. We have such information, and the news is not good for Auburn football coach Bryan Harsin. Rumors of his being dismissed now have two different sources telling us that a substantial loss to Ole Miss this weekend would be the end of his coaching tenure at the Loveliest Village On The Plains. What substantial means was not explained.

October 9, 2022

PiRate Ratings–College Football for October 12-15, 2022

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:19 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
MarshallLouisiana5.05.73.7
West VirginiaBaylor-4.8-4.1-4.9
Central FloridaTemple29.427.932.2
SMUNavy12.312.213.0
Florida Int’l.UTSA-31.7-28.4-33.9
ToledoKent St.9.98.810.9
MassachusettsBuffalo-14.4-15.9-18.1
TennesseeAlabama-7.0-6.0-7.9
GeorgiaVanderbilt39.637.742.3
Virginia TechMiami (Fla.)-11.6-10.3-13.1
MichiganPenn St.10.69.510.8
KentuckyMississippi St.-4.6-3.1-3.3
DukeNorth Carolina-13.6-11.7-15.7
FloridaLSU-4.0-1.9-2.8
IndianaMaryland-9.7-10.5-12.0
SyracuseNorth Carolina St.-4.1-4.1-5.0
Ball St.Connecticut6.56.58.8
AkronCentral Michigan-12.4-13.4-15.0
PurdueNebraska17.016.416.9
Florida St.Clemson-4.6-5.0-5.2
East CarolinaMemphis4.53.65.2
South FloridaTulane-7.6-8.3-8.3
IllinoisMinnesota-6.6-5.2-7.7
Bowling GreenMiami (O)-5.6-8.8-8.3
Eastern MichiganNorthern Illinois-2.6-2.3-2.8
Coastal CarolinaOld Dominion8.39.310.0
Georgia SouthernJames Madison-4.2-6.3-7.9
Southern Miss.Arkansas St.7.26.36.5
BYUArkansas0.30.40.1
New Mexico St.New Mexico-10.6-8.7-10.2
ColoradoCalifornia-6.8-8.8-9.3
UtahUSC7.46.17.6
Oregon St.Washington St.6.75.16.0
WashingtonArizona15.015.816.1
Fresno St.San Jose St.4.73.23.3
TroyTexas St.15.915.516.7
Ole MissAuburn13.313.313.5
South AlabamaLouisiana-Monroe12.412.814.4
OklahomaKansas9.810.111.3
TCUOklahoma St.0.20.4-0.6
TexasIowa St.11.010.29.5
Western MichiganOhio4.93.53.8
Michigan St.Wisconsin-0.5-1.4-1.4
Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky-11.9-11.2-13.0
UABCharlotte20.720.322.7
North TexasLouisiana Tech6.95.08.9
Florida AtlanticRice4.55.74.3
HawaiiNevada-8.7-9.0-7.8
Colorado St.Utah St.-6.1-5.2-6.6
Notre DameStanford14.615.416.6
UNLVAir Force-8.2-9.6-8.7

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
ArmyColgate28.7
LibertyGardner-Webb29.7

Teams With Bye Weeks

Appalachian St.
Arizona St.
Boise St.
Boston College
Cincinnati
Georgia St.
Georgia Tech
Houston
Iowa
Kansas St.
Louisville
Missouri
Northwestern
Ohio St.
Oregon
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
San Diego St.
South Carolina
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Tulsa
UCLA
UTEP
Virginia
Wake Forest
Wyoming

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Ohio St.132.6
2Alabama130.9
3Georgia130.5
4Michigan124.3
5Tennessee120.9
6Clemson120.1
7Minnesota119.0
8Oklahoma St.118.1
9Utah117.3
10Penn St.117.0
11Mississippi St.116.9
12Texas116.1
13NC State115.8
14Ole Miss115.6
15Purdue115.5
16T C U115.1
17Oregon114.5
18Baylor113.9
19Wisconsin113.3
20U S C113.2
21Notre Dame113.0
22L S U112.6
23Maryland112.3
24Florida St.112.2
25Kansas St.112.1
26Iowa112.0
27Arkansas112.0
28U C L A111.6
29Texas A&M111.6
30Pittsburgh110.6
31Wake Forest110.5
32Cincinnati110.5
33Oklahoma110.4
34Kentucky110.3
35Miami (Fla.)109.7
36South Carolina109.5
37Illinois109.5
38BYU109.3
39Michigan St.109.2
40Louisville109.1
41North Carolina108.9
42Iowa St.108.9
43Syracuse108.5
44Texas Tech108.3
45Washington107.9
46UCF107.8
47Oregon St.107.5
48Florida106.7
49West Virginia106.3
50Auburn105.2
51Washington St.104.6
52Missouri103.1
53Kansas103.0
54Tulane102.7
55SMU102.4
56Boise St.102.2
57Arizona St.102.2
58Nebraska101.7
59Houston101.3
60Air Force100.9
61Stanford100.5
62East Carolina100.0
63W. Kentucky100.0
64Rutgers99.4
65James Madison99.3
66California99.1
67Indiana98.6
68Toledo98.6
69U A B98.5
70Memphis98.0
71U T S A98.0
72Boston College97.6
73Fresno St.97.5
74Liberty97.5
75Virginia96.9
76Georgia St.96.7
77Appalachian St.96.6
78Troy96.4
79San Jose St.96.3
80Coastal Carolina96.2
81Arizona95.3
82Virginia Tech95.0
83Marshall94.8
84Duke94.3
85Tulsa93.9
86Northwestern93.8
87Georgia Tech93.8
88Army93.7
89Vanderbilt93.6
90South Alabama93.5
91Miami (Ohio)93.0
92Navy92.9
93N. Illinois92.5
94Louisiana92.5
95USF92.1
96Utah St.91.4
97Kent St.91.2
98San Diego St.91.2
99Central Mich.91.2
100Ga. Southern90.7
101Buffalo90.3
102U N L V89.6
103Old Dominion89.5
104Southern Miss.89.1
105Western Mich.88.2
106Florida Atlantic88.1
107Colorado87.8
108Wyoming87.7
109Eastern Mich.87.5
110North Texas86.7
111Ohio86.6
112Middle Tennessee85.9
113Ball St.85.8
114Rice85.8
115U T E P85.6
116Arkansas St.85.0
117Nevada84.2
118Colorado St.83.0
119Bowling Green82.9
120New Mexico82.9
121Texas St.82.8
122UL-Monroe82.8
123Louisiana Tech82.3
124Connecticut81.0
125Temple81.0
126Charlotte79.8
127Akron75.1
128Hawaii72.7
129Massachusetts71.7
130New Mexico St.71.5
131Florida Int’l.64.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati110.3109.7111.5110.5
UCF107.4108.0108.1107.8
Tulane102.9102.4102.8102.7
SMU102.7101.9102.6102.4
Houston101.5100.7101.6101.3
East Carolina100.099.5100.4100.0
Memphis98.098.497.798.0
Tulsa94.293.594.193.9
Navy93.392.792.692.9
USF92.891.692.092.1
Temple81.083.078.981.0

AAC98.698.398.498.4

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.0120.0120.4120.1
NC State116.3115.3115.9115.8
Florida St.112.4112.0112.2112.2
Wake Forest110.5110.4110.6110.5
Louisville109.8109.0108.7109.1
Syracuse109.3108.2107.9108.5
Boston College97.698.696.597.6

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh111.6110.5109.7110.6
Miami (Fla.)110.3109.1109.7109.7
North Carolina108.9109.1108.9108.9
Virginia97.797.695.596.9
Virginia Tech95.795.893.695.0
Duke94.296.492.194.3
Georgia Tech94.594.392.793.8

ACC106.3106.2105.3105.9

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.118.7117.2118.5118.1
Texas117.0116.1115.2116.1
T C U115.9114.6115.0115.1
Baylor114.5113.4113.9113.9
Kansas St.112.8111.5112.1112.1
Oklahoma110.9109.8110.5110.4
Iowa St.109.0108.8108.8108.9
Texas Tech108.5107.3109.1108.3
West Virginia106.7106.3106.0106.3
Kansas104.1102.8102.2103.0

Big 12111.8110.8111.1111.2

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.132.8131.6133.5132.6
Michigan124.8123.7124.5124.3
Penn St.117.2117.2116.8117.0
Maryland112.5112.4112.2112.3
Michigan St.110.2108.9108.4109.2
Rutgers100.799.797.799.4
Indiana99.798.997.298.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Minnesota119.2118.5119.2119.0
Purdue116.2115.4114.7115.5
Wisconsin113.7113.3112.7113.3
Iowa113.1111.9111.0112.0
Illinois109.7110.3108.5109.5
Nebraska102.3102.0100.9101.7
Northwestern94.195.092.393.8

Big Ten111.9111.3110.7111.3

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
W. Kentucky99.499.3101.2100.0
U A B98.098.299.498.5
U T S A98.197.298.798.0
Florida Atlantic87.888.987.688.1
North Texas86.685.987.786.7
Middle Tennessee85.586.186.285.9
Rice85.885.785.885.8
U T E P85.785.685.585.6
Louisiana Tech82.283.481.382.3
Charlotte79.880.479.279.8
Florida Int’l.63.966.362.364.2

CUSA86.687.086.886.8

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame113.4111.9113.8113.0
BYU109.9108.3109.6109.3
Liberty96.698.098.097.5
Army93.793.893.793.7
Connecticut81.282.379.581.0
Massachusetts72.072.870.271.7
New Mexico St.71.173.070.471.5

Independents91.191.490.791.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)91.594.093.593.0
Kent St.90.392.490.991.2
Buffalo88.991.290.990.3
Ohio85.487.586.986.6
Bowling Green83.582.782.682.9
Akron75.075.774.675.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.798.799.398.6
N. Illinois92.492.792.592.5
Central Mich.89.991.592.191.2
Western Mich.87.888.588.288.2
Eastern Mich.87.387.987.287.5
Ball St.85.286.485.885.8

MAC87.989.188.788.6

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.102.2101.5103.0102.2
Air Force100.7100.6101.4100.9
Utah St.91.291.291.991.4
Wyoming86.688.687.987.7
Colorado St.82.683.682.883.0
New Mexico83.283.382.182.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.97.796.998.097.5
San Jose St.95.596.297.296.3
San Diego St.91.490.991.291.2
U N L V90.088.490.289.6
Nevada83.885.383.584.2
Hawaii72.173.372.772.7

MWC89.790.090.290.0

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah117.0116.3118.6117.3
Oregon114.8114.2114.4114.5
U S C112.5113.2114.0113.2
U C L A111.0111.1112.8111.6
Washington107.5108.0108.3107.9
Oregon St.107.7106.8108.0107.5
Washington St.104.0104.7105.0104.6
Arizona St.102.0101.8102.8102.2
Stanford101.899.6100.1100.5
California98.798.899.999.1
Arizona95.595.295.295.3
Colorado88.987.087.687.8

Pac-12105.1104.7105.6105.1

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia130.6129.3131.6130.5
Tennessee120.7120.8121.2120.9
Kentucky109.8110.3110.7110.3
South Carolina109.7109.1109.8109.5
Florida106.1107.6106.5106.7
Missouri103.1103.5102.5103.1
Vanderbilt94.094.592.393.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.7129.9132.1130.9
Mississippi St.117.5116.4117.0116.9
Ole Miss116.5115.0115.2115.6
L S U113.2112.4112.3112.6
Arkansas112.6110.9112.5112.0
Texas A&M111.0111.6112.1111.6
Auburn106.2104.7104.7105.2

SEC113.0112.6112.9112.8

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
James Madison97.199.1101.899.3
Georgia St.96.295.898.296.7
Appalachian St.95.496.897.496.6
Coastal Carolina95.396.496.996.2
Marshall94.495.394.794.8
Ga. Southern90.590.391.490.7
Old Dominion89.589.689.489.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Troy95.496.297.596.4
South Alabama92.693.394.593.5
Louisiana91.992.193.592.5
Southern Miss.88.889.389.389.1
Arkansas St.84.185.685.285.0
Texas St.82.083.383.282.8
UL-Monroe82.783.182.682.8

Sun Belt91.191.992.691.9

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.8
2Big Ten111.3
3Big 12111.2
4Atlantic Coast105.9
5Pac-12105.1
6American Athletic98.4
7Sun Belt91.9
8Independents91.1
9Mountain West90.0
10Mid-American88.6
11Conference USA86.8

This Week’s Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUABMiami (O)
CureMarshallKent St.
FenwaySyracuseCincinnati
New MexicoWestern KentuckyWyoming
L.A.UtahSan Jose St.
Lending TreeBuffaloTexas St.
Las VegasWashington St.Texas A&M
FriscoIndiana 5California 5
Myrtle BeachMemphisLiberty
Famous Idaho PotatoBall St.Boise St.
Boca RatonCentral FloridaLouisville 5
New OrleansMiddle TennesseeAppalachian St.
Armed ForcesHoustonNorth Texas
IndependenceSMUBYU
GasparillaMiami (Fla)Auburn 5
HawaiiUTSAUNLV
Quick LaneWisconsinEastern Michigan
CamelliaToledoTroy
First ResponderIowa St.South Alabama
BirminghamSouth CarolinaNebraska 5
Guaranteed RateKansas St.Iowa
MilitaryPittsburghTulane
LibertyKansasLSU
HolidayNorth CarolinaOregon
TexasOklahoma[Air Force]
PinstripeGeorgia TechMinnesota
Cheez-ItNotre DameTexas
AlamoBaylorWashington
Duke’s MayoWake ForestPurdue
Tony the Tiger SunDukeOregon St.
ArizonaOhioSan Diego St.
OrangeNorth Carolina St.Tennessee
Music CityMarylandKentucky
SugarAlabamaOklahoma St.
TaxSlayerFlorida St.Arkansas
PeachGeorgiaClemson
FiestaOhio St.USC
Tampa BayIllinoisMississippi St.
CitrusPenn St.Florida
CottonOle MissCoastal Carolina
RoseMichiganUCLA
National ChampionshipOhio St.Clemson

5 after team name means projection to be in at 5-7

[Team] is at-large replacement when conference cannot fill an allotment

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