The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 18, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 19, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:07 pm

Saturday’s Games–NCAA, NIT, CBI, and The Basketball Classic

Saturday, March 19, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
BaylorNorth Carolina7.3
KansasCreighton9.0
TennesseeMichigan5.4
ProvidenceRichmond3.5
UCLASaint Mary’s4.6
Murray St.Saint Peter’s9.0
ArkansasNew Mexico St.7.9
GonzagaMemphis12.0
Texas A&MOregon3.9
Wake ForestVCU4.8
BYUNorthern Iowa6.7
DrakePurdue Ft. Wayne9.5
Stephen F. AustinUNC Asheville5.7
Middle TennesseeCal Baptist6.8
OhioRice5.9
UTEPWestern Illinois6.6
PortlandNew Orleans8.2

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Baylor91461.134.636.349.528.511.417.4
N. Carolina276458.036.230.448.329.610.015.7
Kansas62961.835.533.447.932.85.212.1
Creighton1241858.630.728.643.526.0-1.84.0
Tennessee36361.835.932.845.829.68.513.9
Michigan199161.634.031.250.828.97.812.5
Providence317957.534.330.546.638.52.17.4
Richmond6810454.833.722.450.030.9-3.41.5
UCLA151259.435.129.847.336.85.717.3
Saint Mary’s63957.335.027.846.023.97.313.2
Murray St.354048.435.336.048.331.315.224.0
Saint Peter’s2593448.335.332.043.537.15.09.0
Arkansas401658.430.730.846.437.97.112.8
N. Mexico St.877350.732.633.745.634.88.114.5
Gonzaga1756.937.929.041.629.87.221.8
Memphis503157.335.937.545.338.46.711.7

Bracketnomics Predictions

Baylor vs. North Carolina

Baylor is just a tad stronger across the board and has a lot more NCAA Tournament experience on the bench and on the court.  Baylor should win but not by a large margin.

Kansas vs. Creighton

This has all the looks of a large margin victory for the Jayhawks   Creighton’s offense looks to be in trouble against Kansas’s defense, and spurtability heavily favors KU.

Tennessee vs. Michigan

This should be a close game with several lead changes.  Michigan’s interior defense may be a tad vulnerable to Tennessee’s inside muscle, but, the Wolverines’ offense is considerably better overall than Tennessee’s offense.  Schedule strength and R+T Ratings are basically a wash.  Solely on the interior defense, Tennessee gets the nod.

Providence vs. Richmond

Can Richmond make the Sweet 16 with an R+T Rating that shows the Spiders receive little or no Spurtability?  Providence is not a pushover, but the Friars are most likely not going to advance past the Sweet 16.  Providence has the advantage in every one of these stats.  Richmond beat Iowa by playing a much better half court game than the Big Ten Tournament champs.  Providence’s win over South Dakota St. was a little more hustle points over half court game, and it gets really difficult for a team to keep winning the half court game over and over, especially when the other team has the decided Spurtability advantage.  Look for the Friars to advance.

UCLA vs. Saint Mary’s

This game could stay close for quite a long time.  UCLA has the clear-cut edge in the essential stats, but the edge is not large enough to call the Bruins a prohibitive favorite.  The key here is the FT rate, where UCLA might be a little quicker and force SMC to commit more than their usual number of fouls.  UCLA needs to keep its starters on the floor more than the average tournament team, and the Gaels do not figure to force key players to go to the bench with foul trouble.  Give the edge to the Bruins but don’t expect a big blowout.

Murray St. vs. Saint Peter’s

In all but one respect, these teams are rather evenly matched.  Murray State has a huge R+T Rating advantage, 15 points to be exact in the old counting stat version and three times more in the rate stat version.  What this means is that the Racers are likely to enjoy one major spurt or multiple smaller spurts and pull away from the Peacocks at some point in the game.  Saint Peter’s won’t have the ability to play catch-up after a large spurt.  The Racers will be an interesting Sweet 16 team.

Arkansas vs. New Mexico St.

This game has special meaning with yours truly, ye old PiRate Captain.  Five years ago, when he was the head coach at Nevada, I called Eric Musselman the best Mid-Major head coach and a sure thing success wherever he ended up in a power conference.  When he was hired by Arkansas, I predicted he would return the Razorbacks to the prominence they enjoyed under Eddie Sutton and Nolan Richardson and have Arkansas competing for a shot at the Final Four within five years.  He is only in year three, and he almost made the Final Four last year.  

New Mexico State head coach Chris Jans is my current top Mid-Major coach in college basketball.  It is my belief that when he gets a power five coaching job, he too will produce the results Muss is producing in Fayetteville.

Now, about this game: Arkansas has a bit too much defensive abilities for the Aggies to consistently score in this game.  The difference in schedule strength and the slight evidence that the Razorbacks have a little more quickness is enough to call this one in Arkansas’s favor.  Don’t discount NMSU; Jans can coach undermanned talent and keep games close.  The Aggies can keep this game close and even have a chance to pull the upset, but the Razorbacks have about a 65% chance of winning this game.  Arky goes to the Sweet 16 again.

Gonzaga vs. Memphis

Don’t automatically dismiss Memphis in this game.  While Gonzaga has a decisive Bracketnomics advantage, Memphis has two superior aspects that can be used to exploit the 1-seed, and both work together to strengthen the advantages.  

Memphis has an exceptional offensive rebounding advantage in this game.  The Tigers are one of a small handful that have an O Reb% in excess of the magical 37%.  Memphis also exceeds the 37% margin in FT rate, which shows the Tigers have explosive quickness to the rim.  If Gonzaga gets into foul trouble in this game, all their other advantages will be neutralized.

Gonzaga is still the pick here, but this game should be a lot closer than expected, and Memphis will have a chance to pull off the big upset if Gonzaga fouls too much.

March 17, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 17, 2022

Thursday, March 17, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
Colorado St.Michigan-2.1
ProvidenceSouth Dakota St.2.9
Boise St.Memphis-1.9
BaylorNorfolk St.20.2
TennesseeLongwood16.6
IowaRichmond10.2
GonzagaGeorgia St.23.1
North CarolinaMarquette1.9
ConnecticutNew Mexico St.9.0
KentuckySaint Peter’s17.3
Saint Mary’sIndiana2.3
San Diego St.Creighton2.3
ArkansasVermont4.2
Murray St.San Francisco-2.3
UCLAAkron14.9
KansasTexas Southern18.7
Fresno St.Eastern Washington11.8

March 13, 2022

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:35 pm
DateFINAL
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaKansasBaylor
2KentuckyAuburnDukeVillanova
3TennesseePurdueTexas TechWisconsin
4UCLAIllinoisArkansasIowa
5ConnecticutHoustonProvidenceSaint Mary’s
6TexasLSUAlabamaColorado St.
7Michigan St.Ohio St.Boise St.USC
8TCUNorth CarolinaSeton HallSan Diego St.
9Murray St.MemphisCreightonMarquette
10San FranciscoIowa St.Loyola (Chi.)Virginia Tech
11Miami (Fla.)DavidsonRichmondIndiana
12South Dakota St.UABNotre DameWyomingTexas A&MMichigan
13VermontChattanoogaNew Mexico St.Akron
14Montana St.DelawareSaint Peter’sCal St. Fullerton
15YaleLongwoodGeorgia St.Colgate
16Jacksonville St.Norfolk St.Wright St.BryantTexas SouthernTexas A&M-CC

First 4 #16 Seeds: Wright St., Bryant, Texas Southern, Texas A&M–CC

Last 4 Byes: Iowa St., Miami (Fla.), Davidson, Indiana

Last 4 In: Notre Dame, Wyoming, Texas A&M, Michigan

First 4 Out: SMU, Xavier, Rutgers, Wake Forest,

Next 4 Out: BYU, VCU, Oklahoma, Saint Louis

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 13, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
American Athletic Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Fort Worth, TX
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
HoustonMemphis4.8
Atlantic 10 Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Washington, D.C.
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
DavidsonRichmond2.5
Big Ten Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Indianapolis
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
IowaPurdue-0.2
Ivy League–CHAMPIONSHIP
Boston
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
PrincetonYale2.5
Southeastern Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Tampa
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TennesseeTexas A&M7.8

Final Bracketology coming this afternoon after SEC Championship Game Concludes

After last night’s late games on the West Coast concluded, our Bracketology hopefuls shrunk to 70 teams. We still have to eliminate two teams from our field of 68 and then do a final seeding after the conclusion of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The outcome of that game will most definitely affect the field, possibly changing who plays an opening round “play-in” game in Dayton.

March 1, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, March 1, 2022

Tuesday’s Conference Tournaments
Atlantic Sun–1st Round –Campus Sites
HomeVisitorsSpread
Central ArkansasStetson-0.2
Kennesaw St.Eastern Kentucky3.7
Florida Gulf CoastNorth Alabama10.0
LipscombNorth Florida1.3
Horizon League–1st Round–Campus Sites
HomeVisitorsSpread
OaklandIUPUI23.1
DetroitGreen Bay11.3
Youngstown St.Robert Morris7.4
MilwaukeeIllinois Chicago-1.1
Patriot League–1st Round–Campus Sites
HomeVisitorsSpread
Holy CrossAmerican0.8
LafayetteBucknell4.4
Regularly Scheduled Games
HomeVisitorsSpread
VillanovaProvidence9.2
GeorgiaTennessee-16.2
RichmondDayton0.6
KentuckyMississippi17.1
Ohio St.Nebraska15.2
ManhattanSaint Peter’s-4.0
MaineVermont-19.6
Stony BrookNJIT8.8
UMass LowellNew Hampshire3.1
AlbanyHartford2.8
Maryland Baltimore Co.Binghamton5.2
OklahomaWest Virginia4.6
Eastern MichiganWestern Michigan4.9
Bowling GreenOhio-7.4
Ball St.Akron-3.7
BuffaloToledo-0.4
Central MichiganMiami (O)-2.3
South CarolinaMissouri7.8
TCUKansas-6.3
PittsburghDuke-15.1
Northern IllinoisKent St.-7.9
MichiganMichigan St.3.2
VCUSt. Bonaventure3.7
VanderbiltFlorida0.3
WisconsinPurdue-2.6
HoustonCincinnati15.6
Montana St.Southern Utah2.8
Virginia TechLouisville10.2
Boise St.Nevada10.6
Air ForceSan Jose St.4.9
UC Santa BarbaraCal St. Northridge15.2
USCArizona-5.4

February 22, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 22, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
North DakotaSt. Thomas-0.9
DartmouthYale-2.2
MissouriTennessee-12.5
FloridaArkansas-0.6
IowaMichigan St.5.6
NortheasternCharleston-1.1
MonmouthSiena9.2
St. BonaventureRhode Island7.1
George WashingtonRichmond-6.4
Eastern MichiganNorthern Illinois2.6
Kent St.Ball St.9.6
AkronBowling Green8.1
Miami (O)Buffalo-6.5
Western MichiganToledo-15.3
OhioCentral Michigan17.6
Texas A&MGeorgia12.2
ConnecticutVillanova0.4
Texas TechOklahoma9.3
PittsburghMiami (Fla.)-4.4
Saint LouisSaint Joseph’s11.8
NorthwesternNebraska11.2
KansasKansas St.13.0
VanderbiltAlabama-3.8
Air ForceFresno St.-8.7
Boise St.San Diego St.2.0
Cal PolyCal St. Bakersfield-1.5
Utah St.New Mexico12.1
NevadaUNLV0.3

February 15, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
LongwoodHigh Point8.2
Western MichiganAkron-10.8
ToledoKent St.10.1
Penn St.Michigan St.-2.7
DukeWake Forest10.2
OklahomaTexas-0.4
Sacred HeartMerrimack0.7
CincinnatiMemphis-2.0
Saint Peter’sIona-3.9
ElonHofstra-6.6
South FloridaTulane-5.3
Florida St.Clemson2.2
North FloridaLiberty-7.3
FordhamVCU-6.4
Ball St.Northern Illinois7.5
Central MichiganEastern Michigan-0.7
OhioMiami (O)12.0
Bowling GreenBuffalo-5.3
MississippiSouth Carolina3.1
Texas A&MFlorida0.1
ProvidenceVillanova-4.3
Georgia TechNC St.1.5
Illinois St.Northern Iowa-3.8
Southern IllinoisBradley-1.6
Missouri St.Indiana St.13.9
Ohio St.Minnesota11.4
TennesseeKentucky-0.5
IndianaWisconsin3.1
New MexicoWyoming-6.4
MissouriArkansas-8.2
Oregon St.Colorado-4.7
DePaulButler5.7
TCUIowa St.2.8
UC San DiegoUC Irvine-6.6
San Diego St.Utah St.3.3
NevadaSan Jose St.14.0

February 1, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 1, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
VirginiaBoston College7.9
ConnecticutCreighton10.2
Iowa St.Kansas-3.7
MarylandMichigan St.-4.2
TennesseeTexas A&M11.5
SienaCanisius3.3
DuquesneRichmond-6.8
St. BonaventureDavidson1.5
Western MichiganNorthern Illinois0.3
OhioBall St.12.6
Eastern MichiganToledo-11.6
Central MichiganBowling Green-6.4
Miami (O)Kent St.0.8
Mississippi St.South Carolina7.7
NorthwesternRutgers6.5
LouisvilleNorth Carolina-3.9
GeorgetownSeton Hall-8.3
AuburnAlabama7.1
Texas TechTexas4.6
St. John’sProvidence0.8
LSUMississippi15.0
Wichita St.Tulsa8.4
Utah St.Air Force16.5
MichiganNebraska15.0
StanfordCalifornia5.6
UC RiversideUC Davis7.0
UNLVNevada4.2
San Jose St.Fresno St.-12.0

January 29, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 29, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
LouisvilleDuke-8.7
TCULSU-5.3
DavidsonLa Salle16.0
TulaneWichita St.-1.1
ButlerGeorgetown5.4
Georgia TechMiami (Fla.)-2.4
Michigan St.Michigan4.3
ArmyLafayette5.8
Coastal CarolinaArkansas St.4.5
VMIEast Tennessee St.3.2
The CitadelChattanooga-10.1
AuburnOklahoma9.2
CreightonXavier-1.9
Iowa St.Missouri12.4
NavyAmerican15.7
UTSAFlorida Atlantic-8.2
CampbellHigh Point6.1
North CarolinaNC St.9.1
ColumbiaDartmouth-6.6
BinghamtonMaryland Baltimore Co.-0.7
VermontMaine25.4
Youngstown St.Milwaukee6.0
Northern IowaIllinois St.7.6
DuquesneSaint Louis-7.7
St. BonaventureSaint Joseph’s9.6
Western CarolinaSamford-1.3
TowsonDrexel7.2
ArkansasWest Virginia5.4
ArizonaArizona St.22.1
MarylandIndiana-1.3
SMUTemple10.2
BelmontUT Martin20.9
Southern MissRice-5.9
Western KentuckyMiddle Tennessee4.6
Chicago St.Dixie St.-4.6
LongwoodWinthrop4.2
Florida St.Virginia Tech1.6
OaklandIllinois Chicago12.9
UL MonroeGeorgia St.-2.3
Western IllinoisSt. Thomas6.4
South Dakota St.North Dakota St.10.7
Eastern MichiganMiami (O)-2.7
Ball St.Western Michigan9.6
AlabamaBaylor-3.3
South Carolina St.Norfolk St.-7.3
North Carolina CentralHoward-2.7
UC DavisLong Beach St.1.9
Alcorn St.Southern-0.6
Coppin St.Maryland-Eastern Shore7.6
Morgan St.Delaware St.14.1
Louisiana TechNorth Texas1.9
Northern ArizonaPortland St.0.1
MississippiKansas St.-1.3
Northwestern St.Texas A&M-CC-5.9
SeattleSam Houston4.2
LamarAbilene Christian-10.6
St. Francis (NY)Wagner-11.8
PresbyterianUNC Asheville-0.9
North Carolina A&TUSC Upstate4.1
StetsonEastern Kentucky-3.7
Appalachian St.Little Rock11.4
RichmondVCU1.1
DenverOral Roberts-8.7
CharlestonNortheastern5.0
William & MaryElon-3.2
James MadisonDelaware1.1
Northern IllinoisCentral Michigan6.0
FloridaOklahoma St.4.1
VillanovaSt. John’s13.5
NorthwesternIllinois-4.2
Eastern IllinoisTennessee St.-6.9
Gardner-WebbRadford7.8
WashingtonUtah0.9
Mississippi Valley St.Arkansas-Pine Bluff-1.6
SE LouisianaIncarnate Word10.7
Southeast Missouri St.SIU Edwardsville1.6
Murray St.Morehead St.11.4
Alabama A&MFlorida A&M-0.9
Mount St. Mary’sSt. Francis (PA)5.3
North FloridaLipscomb2.4
Texas St.UT Arlington5.0
South DakotaNorth Dakota12.9
Bowling GreenKent St.1.3
Charleston SouthernHampton-1.0
Kennesaw St.North Alabama6.9
KansasKentucky2.8
Texas TechMississippi St.8.0
Prairie View A&MTexas Southern-4.6
Jackson St.Grambling7.1
Montana St.Idaho14.0
Notre DameVirginia5.0
PrincetonYale3.2
JacksonvilleCentral Arkansas11.4
MercerFurman-7.1
VanderbiltGeorgia10.3
DePaulConnecticut-7.1
NebraskaRutgers-2.0
USCCalifornia13.0
MarshallUAB-11.1
Old DominionCharlotte2.6
Loyola MarymountSan Diego2.5
San FranciscoSanta Clara7.1
NJITAlbany-0.5
LibertyJacksonville St.4.5
Florida Gulf CoastBellarmine1.3
Robert MorrisGreen Bay4.6
TroySouth Alabama-1.9
WoffordUNC Greensboro6.4
UNC WilmingtonHofstra-4.8
Central FloridaHouston-9.3
TexasTennessee1.7
Alabama St.Bethune-Cookman4.2
TulsaSouth Florida6.1
UC RiversideCal St. Fullerton2.4
Northern ColoradoIdaho St.13.8
Houston BaptistNicholls St.-10.0
UT Rio Grande ValleyTarleton St.-2.2
Saint Mary’sPepperdine21.2
SyracuseWake Forest-2.3
LouisianaGeorgia Southern5.4
Missouri St.Evansville19.0
OmahaUMKC-7.8
Tennessee TechAustin Peay4.3
Texas A&MSouth Carolina7.1
GonzagaPortland30.9
UC IrvineCal Poly14.3
UTEPFlorida International5.9
MontanaEastern Washington4.6
New Mexico St.Grand Canyon3.1
UCLAStanford14.4
PacificBYU-14.9
OregonOregon St.12.3
UC San DiegoCal St. Bakersfield-0.1
Sacramento St.Weber St.-9.1
California BaptistStephen F. Austin-1.0
NevadaUtah St.-1.6
HawaiiUC Santa Barbara1.4

Sweet 16: Best TV Games On Saturday

Time ETChannelHomeVisitor
12:00 PMESPN2TCULSU
12:30 PMCBSMichigan St.Michigan
2:00 PMESPNAuburnOklahoma
2:00 PMFS1CreightonXavier
2:00 PMESPN2ArkansasWest Virginia
3:00 PMABCFlorida St.Virginia Tech
4:00 PMESPNAlabamaBaylor
4:00 PMESPN+SeattleSam Houston St.
5:00 PMESPN+Murray St.Morehead St.
6:00 PMESPNKansasKentucky
6:00 PMESPN2Texas TechMississippi St.
6:00 PMESPN+PrincetonYale
8:00 PMESPNTexasTennessee
8:00 PMESPN+UC RiversideCal St. Fullerton
9:00 PMESPN+New Mexico St.Grand Canyon
9:30 PMPac-12UCLAStanford

January 26, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 26, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
TennesseeFlorida6.7
USC UpstateWinthrop-4.3
XavierProvidence7.6
ButlerCreighton-4.4
MichiganNorthwestern8.2
CharlotteOld Dominion2.2
MaineNew Hampshire-11.2
MaristSaint Peter’s3.6
LafayetteBoston University-5.6
South FloridaSMU-8.3
LehighArmy-1.1
AmericanHoly Cross4.7
BucknellNavy-9.9
LongwoodNorth Carolina A&T7.9
High PointRadford3.3
Charleston SouthernPresbyterian-6.0
CampbellHampton11.0
Virginia TechMiami6.3
North CarolinaBoston College12.4
Stony BrookVermont-7.2
UMBCNJIT7.6
HartfordBinghamton3.5
UMass LowellAlbany4.4
ValparaisoBradley-2.3
EvansvilleNorthern Iowa-10.0
La SalleMassachusetts-1.5
George MasonSt. Bonaventure-1.9
Saint Joseph’sDuquesne4.6
ChattanoogaWofford6.0
FurmanVMI9.6
East Tennessee St.UNC Greensboro2.5
The CitadelWestern Carolina5.9
South CarolinaVanderbilt1.6
MississippiArkansas-5.4
Oklahoma St.Iowa St.3.2
Wichita St.Central Florida2.7
LamarTarleton St.-7.4
UT Rio Grande ValleyAbilene Christian-5.6
West VirginiaOklahoma1.5
Illinois St.Drake-3.7
Saint LouisGeorge Washington17.1
SamfordMercer-0.5
Seton HallMarquette5.6
DavidsonVCU4.1
IndianaPenn St.7.5
LSUTexas A&M11.7
TulaneTulsa2.9
Notre DameNC St.5.9
Georgia TechFlorida St.-4.7
Washington St.Utah8.2
California BaptistSam Houston0.1
SeattleStephen F. Austin3.7
Utah St.San Diego St.0.2

Teams With National Championship Bracketnomics Data

Every year at March Madness time, our Bracketnomics publication is our most viewed feature of the year. We use many factors that back-testing have showed that past national champions resembled. If for example every national champion since 1995 had a certain minimum offensive rebounding percentage, and additionally, 25 of the last 26 national champions had a certain maximum defensive 2-point field goal percentage, we would look for the teams in this year’s field that also possess those stats. It isn’t that easy, as many of our variables are multi-variable formulas such as a combination of multiple factors met on a certain scale of minimums and maximums based on the result of a key variable or variables.

Now, that we have probably confused you with a bunch of gobbledygook, you want to know which teams meet the criteria the most through January 26.

There are a half dozen teams that meet the basic criteria today. Here they are, alphabetically.

Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, Gonzaga, Houston, and Villanova are the super six as of today, but Baylor and Villanova have better criteria ratings than the other four.

We will continue to monitor these statistics for the next month and have them ready to go as teams win automatic bids. Then, on the Monday and Tuesday after Selection Sunday, we will have an all-inclusive Bracketnomics Report with all the pertinent data.

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