The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games of Saturday, March 17

Saturday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Kentucky Buffalo 5.3
Tennessee Loyola (Chi.) 5.1
Gonzaga Ohio St. 2.8
Michigan Houston 1.2
Villanova Alabama 11.9
Texas Tech Florida 1.9
Kansas Seton Hall 3.8
Duke Rhode Island 10.3

PINCH US!

This is the only green you will see on a basketball PiRate today.  None of us buckaroos can possibly wear green on this fine Saturday.  You see, we all need to be pinched all day.

Can we really be awake?  Did it really happen?  Surely, we must have fallen asleep early last night and just thought we heard a mouse roar.  Yes, the Duchy of Grand Baltimore County declared war on Virginia, but the Cavaliers did not notice for 20 minutes.  Then, just like the tiny nation of Grand Fenwick, the Retrievers Roared and won the war.

Back to reality for a moment.  Most definitely, this is an incredible, historical moment in the world of sports.  It has no equal in upsets since maybe a horse called “Upset” beat Man O’ War at Saratoga Race Course in 1919.

There is precedent for the top overall seed losing in its first game, and it happened to the same school more than one time.  However, when DePaul lost in 1980 to UCLA, there were just 32 teams in field, and the Bruins were an 8-seed.  When DePaul lost in 1981 to St. Joseph’s, there were just 40 teams in the field, and the Hawks were a 9-seed.

There are obviously no perfect brackets left in the Universe.  What would the odds be that somebody picked Montana to beat Arizona and UMBC to beat Virginia and then not pick any other crazy upsets that did not happen?  Why do you think it is called, “Madness?”

The PiRate Ratings new Criteria for Bracket Picking went a mediocre 11-5 yesterday to bring the total record to 26-10 or 72.2%.  Our only solace is that the rest of the world did about the same.  In this crazy year, there apparently is no great mechanical method to pick winners.

Nevertheless, we still have our Final Four picks alive (Cincinnati, Duke, North Carolina, and Villanova).  Three of our Elite 8 remain, although we now believe that one of those teams, Purdue, may be doomed now following the unfortunate season-ending injury loss to star center Isaac Haas.

Here is Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Schedule

Saturday, Mar 17, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:10 PM 1 Villanova 9 Alabama Pittsburgh CBS
2:40 PM 2 Duke 7 Rhode Island Pittsburgh CBS
5:15 PM 5 Kentucky 13 Buffalo Boise, ID CBS
6:10 PM 3 Tennessee 11 Loyola (Chi.) Dallas TNT
7:10 PM 1 Kansas 8 Seton Hall Wichita, KS TBS
7:45 PM 4 Gonzaga 5 Ohio St. Boise, ID CBS
8:40 PM 3 Texas Tech 6 Florida Dallas TNT
9:40 PM 3 Michigan 6 Houston Wichita, KS TBS

Here is our bracket-picking criteria for this next round of games for those of you that get to pick new teams after each round.  The picks in this round do not necessarily match the original picks, because statistics have now changed from the first round, as well as expected opponents.

Villanova vs. Alabama

Both True Shooting Percentage margin and R+T margin indicate that this game could get out of hand rather quickly.  Alabama will not be able to capitalize with their quickness in this game, because Villanova can match the Tide in this respect.  After what happened to Virginia, you can bet that the remaining number one seeds will be ready to play like their opponent is another number one seed.  We expect the Wildcats to look like their 2016 championship team.

PiRate Pick: Villanova

 

Duke vs. Rhode Island

A lot of the media think this game should be close, with URI having a strong upset chance.  Our criteria says this is a blowout game in the making.  The true shooting percentage margins in this game are not close, as the Rams have a negative margin, while Duke has one of the best in the entire field.  Duke’s R+T Rating is in the top 5, while the Rams’ R+T Rating is mediocre among the field.  Add the fact that Duke’s schedule strength is also among the top in the field, while URI’s is mediocre once again.

Obviously, we are sticking with Coach K as long as the Blue Devils remain in the field.  They have the best criteria resume, and even though they are vulnerable to great passing teams, there are not a lot of good passing teams in this tournament.  We can see the Blue Devils winning by 15 or more.

PiRate Pick: Duke

 

Kentucky vs. Buffalo

Kentucky’s schedule strength forecasts a game in which the Wildcats will control the boards and prevent the Bulls from shooting a high enough percentage to catch lightning in the bottle twice in three days.  The Wildcats may not be nearly as good as past teams that made it to the Final Four, but with the top two teams in their side of the bracket gone, they have an open front door to the Elite 8.  Will they go through it?  Coach John Calipari will make sure the young players know the way through that door.

PiRate Pick: Kentucky

 

Tennessee vs. Loyola (Chi.)

Here’s a game where the criteria suggests that this should be a close game with the underdog having a fighting chance to pull off the upset.  Loyola plays team basketball.  The Ramblers’ offense usually works because they take what the defense gives it and rarely forces a bad shot attempt.  Their defense is more than able to put the Ramblers in the Sweet 16.

Tennessee has the inside power and the ability to pound the ball in the paint.  The Volunteers methodically pounded Wright State into submission Thursday, and they will attempt to do the same thing to Loyola.

If Loyola was an up-tempo, pressuring defensive team, we would be inclined to pick the upset.  The Ramblers have the true shooting percentage margin advantage in this game, but Tennessee gets the nod in R+T Ratings and Schedule Strength.

PiRate Pick: Tennessee

 

Kansas vs. Seton Hall

In our opinion, we believe there will be three incredibly exciting games today that could go down to the final horn.  In our criteria, this is a toss-up game.  To start with, Kansas has a minimal schedule strength advantage.  The Big 12 had the toughest overall schedule strength, but the Big East had two number one seeds.

Kansas has a decisive true shooting percentage margin advantage, while Seton Hall has just as much advantage in R+T Ratings.  The Pirate should win the battle on the boards, while turnovers should be a wash.

There isn’t much remaining to try to pick a winner here, and it actually went through several layers before Kansas’s near proximity to home became the deciding factor by the slimmest of margins.

PiRate Pick: Kansas

 

Gonzaga vs. Ohio St.

This game should be the second of the three great games of the day, and the lower seed may have the better shot at the upset in this game compared to all others.

Gonzaga did not look ready to play at the outset of the first round.  The Bulldogs finally put it all together long enough to pull away for a victory, but this first round win reminded us of the 2013 team that struggled with Southern in the first round before losing to Wichita State in the next.  The Bulldogs could not rebound against UNC-Greensboro, and now they face a better inside team in the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s schedule strength is stronger by enough points to equalize Gonzaga’s true shooting percentage margin and R+T margin.  We expect this game to be decided late.  Gonzaga is vulnerable here, but we will stick with the criteria without letting our personal opinions change our minds.

PiRate Pick: Gonzaga

 

Texas Tech vs. Florida

This game should be decided on the boards, and it is our belief that the Red Raiders have the advantage here.  Florida might be able to counter it with turnover margin, but Texas Tech has faced West Virginia for enough possessions this season to face the Florida man-to-man pressure without much difficulty.

PiRate Pick: Texas Tech

 

Michigan vs. Houston

Upset Alert Here!  Michigan, be aware.  From out of nowhere, Houston looks like a potential Final Four team.  We believe that having no real home games this year may have actually toughened this Cougar team up, and it just may be that they are waiting to ambush the Big Ten opponent today.

Michigan’s schedule strength advantage is not all that strong in this game.  Houston’s true shooting percentage margin advantage is lost due to schedule strength, but their R+T Rating advantage is strong enough to withstand the schedule strength advantage.

Michigan has faced Michigan State enough times without getting killed on the boards, so even though the Wolverines are so-so in rebounding, while Houston is quite competent, we do not see the Cougars winning the battle on the boards by much, maybe just two or three.  However, we like Houston being able to get just enough fast break points, while they quickness eventually wears the Wolverines down just enough to lower their shooting percentage.  This will be the third close game of the day, and it could be the game with the overall best chance that the lower seed wins.

PiRate Pick: Houston

 

Sunday’s Schedule

Sunday, Mar 18, 2018
TIME Higher Seed Lower Seed City TV
12:10 PM 2 Purdue 10 Butler Detroit CBS
2:40 PM 3 Michigan St. 11 Syracuse Detroit CBS
5:15 PM 2 North Carolina 7 Texas A&M Charlotte CBS
6:10 PM 2 Cincinnati 7 Nevada Nashville TNT
7:10 PM 4 Auburn 5 Clemson San Diego TBS
7:45 PM 9 Kansas St. 16 MD-Baltimore Co. Charlotte TruTV
8:40 PM 1 Xavier 9 Florida St. Nashville TNT
9:40 PM 5 West Virginia 13 Marshall San Diego TBS

 

 

 

 

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March 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 11 , 2018

Sunday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Conference Tournament Championships

Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Harvard Penn -1.4
Rhode Island Davidson 2.8
Tennessee Kentucky 1.1
Georgia St. Texas-Arlington 0.9
Cincinnati Houston 4.8

 

Sunday’s Conference Championship Schedule

All Times EDT

Time Conference Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM Ivy League Harvard Penn ESPN2
1:00 PM Atlantic 10 Rhode Island Davidson CBS
1:00 PM Southeastern Tennessee Kentucky ESPN
2:00 PM Sun Belt Georgia St. Texas-Arlington ESPN2
3:30 PM American Cincinnati Houston CBS

Note:  Our Final Bracket Gurus Bracketology prediction will appear on this site roughly 30 minutes after the conclusion of the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.  Davidson is a potential bid-stealer, and until our gurus know whether they have earned an automatic bid or have been eliminated, they cannot fix the Bubble.  There are about a half-dozen teams that will sweat it out during today’s Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Championship.

Teams That Have Earned Automatic Bids Through Sunday, 6:00 AM EDT

Team Bid Conf. W-L Avg Score
Arizona AUTO P12 27-7 81-71
Bucknell AUTO Patriot 25-9 81-73
Buffalo AUTO MAC 26-8 85-77
Cal St. Fullerton AUTO BWest 20-11 73-72
Charleston AUTO CAA 26-7 75-69
Gonzaga AUTO WCC 30-4 85-67
Iona AUTO MAAC 20-13 80-76
Kansas AUTO B12 27-7 82-71
Lipscomb AUTO A-SUN 23-9 83-78
Long Island AUTO NEC 18-16 78-77
Loyola (Chi.) AUTO MVC 28-5 72-62
Marshall AUTO CUSA 24-10 84-79
MD-Baltimore Co. AUTO AE 24-10 73-71
Michigan AUTO BTen 28-7 75-64
Montana AUTO BSky 26-7 78-69
Murray St. AUTO OVC 26-5 77-66
New Mexico St. AUTO WAC 28-5 76-65
Radford AUTO B-South 22-12 67-64
San Diego St. AUTO MWC 22-10 77-68
South Dakota St. AUTO Summit 28-6 85-74
Stephen F. Austin AUTO SLC 28-6 78-68
Texas Southern AUTO SWAC 15-19 78-80
UNC-Central AUTO MEAC 19-15 70-71
UNC-Greensboro AUTO SoCon 27-7 74-62
Villanova AUTO BE 30-4 87-71
Virginia AUTO ACC 31-2 68-53
Wright St. AUTO Horizon 25-9 72-66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 8, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Divisional Playoff Round: January 13-14, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday, January 13, 2018

4:35 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (11-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3-0)

PiRate: Philadelphia by 5.2

Mean: Philadelphia by 5.6

Bias: Philadelphia by 5.1

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Philadelphia 26  Atlanta 20

 

8:15 PM on CBS

Tennessee Titans (10-7-0) at New England Patriots (13-3-0)

PiRate: New England by 11.5

Mean: New England by  11.5

Bias: New England by 11.7

Total: 44

Estimated Realistic Score: New England 28  Tennessee 16

 

Sunday, January 14, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Jacksonville Jaguars (11-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3-0)

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 6.1

Mean: Pittsburgh by 6.4

Bias: Pittsburgh by 5.9

Total: 43

Estimated Realistic Score: Pittsburgh 24 Jacksonville 17

 

4:40 PM on Fox Sports

New Orleans Saints (12-5-0) at Minnesota Vikings (13-3-0)

PiRate: Minnesota by 4.7

Mean: Minnesota by 4.8

Bias: Minnesota by 4.8

Total: 46

Estimated Realistic Score: Minnesota 24  New Orleans 20

January 1, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 6-7, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard Time

Saturday, January 6, 2018

4:20 PM on ESPN

Tennessee Titans (9-7-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)

PiRate: Kansas City by 8.1

Mean: Kansas City by 8.0

Bias: Kansas City by 8.7

Total: 45

Estimated Realistic Score: Kansas City 27  Tennessee 17

 

8:15 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (10-6-0) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5-0)

PiRate: Los Angeles by 5.4

Mean: Los Angeles by 5.0

Bias: Los Angeles by 5.7

Total: 48

Estimated Realistic Score: Los Angeles 27  Atlanta 21

 

Sunday, January 7, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Buffalo Bills (9-7-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6-0)

PiRate: Jacksonville by 9.4

Mean: Jacksonville by 8.9

Bias: Jacksonville by 9.5

Total: 42

Estimated Realistic Score: Jacksonville 26  Buffalo 16

 

4:40 PM on Fox

Carolina Panthers (11-5-0) at New Orleans Saints (11-5-0)

PiRate: New Orleans by 5.8

Mean: New Orleans by 5.9

Bias: New Orleans by 6.0

Total: 53

Estimated Realistic Score: New Orleans 28  Carolina 24

 

 

December 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 17: December 31, 2017

Week 17 PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Cincinnati 13.1 12.6 13.6 38
Detroit Green Bay 3.2 3.0 3.7 46
Miami Buffalo 1.8 1.6 1.3 41
Atlanta Carolina 3.3 3.8 3.0 50
Tampa Bay New Orleans -7.9 -7.3 -8.0 49
Tennessee Jacksonville -2.4 -2.2 -2.8 45
New England N.Y. Jets 16.4 16.9 16.5 39
Indianapolis Houston 3.3 3.4 3.5 44
Pittsburgh Cleveland 18.8 18.3 21.8 39
N.Y. Giants Washington -4.9 -4.6 -5.0 42
Minnesota Chicago 12.7 12.3 13.4 34
Philadelphia Dallas 6.9 6.0 8.0 46
LA Chargers Oakland 9.3 8.4 10.2 44
Seattle Arizona 8.7 8.9 8.3 41
Denver Kansas City -6.0 -6.1 -6.4 42
LA Rams San Francisco 13.7 13.3 14.1 50

Current PiRate Ratings–12/26/2017

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 108.3 108.4 108.4 108.3 23 12-3
Buffalo 96.0 96.3 96.1 96.1 20 8-7
Miami 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7 21 6-9
N. Y. Jets 94.3 94.0 94.4 94.3 16 5-10
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.1 107.2 107.1 23 12-3
Baltimore 105.5 105.7 105.6 105.6 22 9-6
Cincinnati 95.3 96.1 94.9 95.5 16 6-9
Cleveland 90.7 91.4 87.9 90.0 16 0-15
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.3 103.2 103.4 103.3 23 10-5
Tennessee 97.8 98.0 97.6 97.8 22 8-7
Indianapolis 92.3 92.7 91.8 92.3 22 4-11
Houston 91.0 91.2 90.4 90.9 22 3-12
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Chargers 104.5 104.1 104.7 104.4 23 8-7
Kansas City 103.1 103.2 103.5 103.3 23 9-6
Oakland 97.7 98.3 97.0 97.7 21 6-9
Denver 95.2 95.0 95.1 95.1 19 5-10
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 106.7 105.4 107.7 106.6 23 13-2
Dallas 101.8 101.4 101.7 101.7 23 8-7
Washington 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 7-8
N.Y. Giants 91.5 92.0 91.2 91.6 18 2-13
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Minnesota 107.4 107.0 108.1 107.5 18 12-3
Detroit 99.4 99.7 99.2 99.5 27 8-7
Green Bay 98.2 98.7 97.5 98.1 19 7-8
Chicago 96.7 96.8 96.7 96.7 16 5-10
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.4 106.8 107.9 107.4 28 11-4
Atlanta 103.9 103.7 104.1 103.9 24 9-6
Carolina 103.2 102.4 103.5 103.0 26 11-4
Tampa Bay 97.5 97.5 97.9 97.6 21 4-11
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.3 106.6 107.9 107.3 25 11-4
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.3 102.7 20 9-6
Arizona 97.2 97.1 97.0 97.1 21 7-8
San Francisco 96.1 95.8 96.3 96.1 25 5-10

Playoff Scenarios

You can go to any sports site online to see the generic playoff scenarios, where you can see what must happen for each potential playoff team to earn their spot.  Let’s take a look at the logical scenarios in the order that they are most likely to occur.

AFC

Baltimore

The Ravens have the overwhelming advantage among the teams vying for the two wildcard spots.  The 4 division championships have been clinched.  Baltimore is the number 5 seed if they win at home over Cincinnati Sunday.  The Ravens have about a 75% chance of winning this game and getting in at #5.  Even if the Ravens lose to the Bengals, if Either Buffalo or Tennessee lose but not both, the Ravens still get in as the number 6 seed.  If Baltimore loses, and both Buffalo and Tennessee lose, then Baltimore stays at number 5.

Baltimore falls out of the playoffs only if they lose to Cincinnati, and both Buffalo and Tennessee win.  The Ravens have about a 95% chance of making the playoffs.

Tennessee

The Titans have the best chance of making the playoffs as the 6-seed (or even 5-seed) of the remaining contenders.  If Tennessee beats Jacksonville on Sunday, the Titans are in as the 6-seed if Baltimore wins, and the 5-seed if Baltimore loses.  What Buffalo does in this instance does not affect the Titans moving up to number 5; only what Baltimore does affects the Titans seeding if they beat a Jacksonville team that has nothing to play for (3-seed win or lose) and will most likely rest their key players.

Tennessee can still make the playoffs at 8-8 if Buffalo and the LA Chargers lose.  They hold all tiebreakers over the Bills and Chargers.

Tennessee misses out on the playoffs if the Titans lose to the Jaguars and either Buffalo or the Chargers win.  The Titans chances for making the playoffs are about 55%.

Los Angeles Chargers

This is where the scenarios get a little tricky.  First, the Chargers can only get in the playoffs if they win and Tennessee loses.  However, they still need some help.  Either Baltimore must also win or Buffalo must lose, or else the Chargers will be eliminated.  If Buffalo and Baltimore win, then the Chargers get in over the Bills, but if Buffalo wins and Baltimore loses, then the Bills take the 6-seed.  Of course, if Tennessee and Buffalo lose, and the Chargers win, then the Chargers make it over both the Titans and Bills.  The Chargers have about a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs under these scenarios.

Buffalo

The Bills are on life support with only a 1 in 10 chance of making the playoffs.  There are at least two different sets of scenarios that will get the Bills in.  If they win at Miami in what will most likely be Jay Cutler’s real swan song, then they can get in if Baltimore loses, which will then eliminate the Chargers.  They would move up to a 5-seed in this scenario if Tennessee loses or gets the 6-seed if Tennessee wins.

The Bills will also make it as the 6-seed if they win and both Tennessee and the LA Chargers lose.  They can then earn the 5-seed if Baltimore also loses.

Top Seed

New England holds the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, so the only way the Steelers can get the top seed is for the Jets to beat the Pats, while the Steelers send Cleveland to 0-16.

 

NFC

Philadelphia has clinched the top seed.  If Minnesota beats Chicago in Minneapolis, the Vikings get the 2-seed.  Minnesota can still get the 2-seed, if they lose to the Bears, and they will still get the 2-seed unless Carolina wins, New Orleans, loses, and the Rams lose. Then, Carolina would get this seed.  Chances are better than 95% that Minnesota gets the 2-seed.

For the 3-seed, the LA Rams hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Carolina, while New Orleans holds the tiebreaker over Carolina.

The 5-seed will go to either Carolina or New Orleans, whichever does not win the NFC South (New Orleans has about a 60% chance and Carolina a 40% chance).

The 6-seed is what is up for grabs

Atlanta

The Falcons earn this spot with a win over Carolina or a Seattle loss to Arizona.

Seattle

The Seahawks must win and Atlanta must lose.

Here are our Playoff Projections for this week.

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Pittsburgh
3 Jacksonville
4 Kansas City
5 Baltimore
6 Tennessee
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Minnesota
3 LA Rams
4 New Orleans
5 Carolina
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Tennessee
Carolina over New Orleans
LA Rams over Atlanta
 
Divisional Round
New England over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Carolina over Philadelphia
LA Rams over Minnesota
 
Conference Championship
New England over Jacksonville
LA Rams over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 52
LA Rams over New England

 

 

 

November 21, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 21-25, 2017

Ugh!  After a nice streak of winning weeks to get us into the black, albeit by a sliver, our picks wore the collar last week.  Now, we are 9% in the red with just a couple weeks left to go to try to make it three consecutive winning seasons.  Boycotting the NFL picks has really hurt us this year, but that had to be done.

Maybe with 5 picks this week, we can hit on something that we have not been able to do well in the last few years–hit big on rivalry week.  In past years, we have played it safe and issued only one or two parlays on this week.  When a 2-9 team plays its 9-2 rival, the outcome isn’t as cut and dry as the week before when 2-8 played 8-2 in a non-rivalry game.

We only went with five games to throw a lot of darts on the board and hope we can somehow come out with a high enough score to win.  We need to win any three of these parlays to put us back in the black for the year, but winning three of five during rivalry week is crazy.  So, if we do, it is more pure dumb luck than our strategy.

As always, this is just an exercise for fun among one PiRate Captain and his 5 lasses.

Date
Nov 21-25
#1 @ +147  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Kent St.
Florida Int’l. Western Ky.
   
#2 @ +137  
Must Win Must Lose
Texas Texas Tech
Tennessee Vanderbilt
   
#3 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
La.-Lafayette Georgia Southern
Florida St. Florida
Clemson South Carolina
   
#4 @ +154  
Must Win Must Lose
North Texas Rice
Middle Tenn. Old Dominion
Alabama Auburn
Wisconsin Minnesota
   
#5 @ +156  
Must Win Must Lose
Eastern Mich. Bowling Green
Georgia Georgia Tech
Northwestern Illinois
Virginia Tech Virginia
San Diego St. New Mexico

 

November 9, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 9-11, 2017

The Captain has regained control of the helm, and he is steering the PiRate ship once again.  Actually, the lasses suffered a loss last week, and they were too shy to come up with any parlays this week.  The Captain on short notice was only able to create two parlays, as he believes this may be a week to look at other wagering philosophies with several key games being played.

If you are new to this site, this weekly feature picks money line parlays that go off at better than +120 odds.  As a general rule, we look for 3-game parlays, but in some cases (like today), we will combine four or more games, and in fact, we once issued a 7-game parlay at +225 odds and won the wager.

Here are this week’s two parlay selections.  As always, consider this when deciding how you will make use of this publication: No PiRate booty has been jeopardized in the making of this feature.  We only play with pretend currency when selecting our parlays.

#1 @ +170  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Purdue
South Carolina Florida
Southern Miss. Rice
#2 @ +157  
Must Win Must Lose
Pittsburgh North Carolina
Florida Int’l. Old Dominion
Missouri Tennessee
Middle Tenn. Charlotte

 

 

October 12, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 12-14, 2017

Ouch!  We took it on the chin and everywhere else last week, as all four of our parlays went down in flames.  It wasn’t even close, as we were 0-4 quite quickly.

About all we accomplished in the last two weeks is that we now have two of our followers experimenting with their own formulas.  One is using IF bets, while the other is going with single games.  Neither of them accomplished what they hoped so far, but both are mathematically sound.  The issue is that there is a bit more parity in football this season, and the teams that you and we just know will win for sure go off at Money Line odds of -1000 or worse.  If you are totally sure that Ohio State will beat Nebraska, Mississippi State will beat BYU, Alabama will beat Arkansas, Oklahoma State will beat Baylor, Georgia will beat Missouri, South Florida will beat Cincinnati, Clemson will beat Syracuse, and Iowa State will beat Kansas, you can put down a wager on this parlay and feel about 85% confident you will win this wager.  And guess what you will receive for every $1 you wager on this “sure thing”?  If you bet $1 and win, you will receive $1.35 in winnings, which includes your original buck invested.  Yes, it would be a 35% return on your investment, and even Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman would accept a 35% ROI over 3 days in the investment.  But, they would still hold off on this one, because the Margin of Safety would not be there, and the chances of losing all of the investment would outweigh the chance to make a 35% profit in 3 days.

This week our little ship of buccaneers and queens of the sea were not in agreement on many supposed sure-thing winners that would allow us to construct parlays with odds of +120 or better.  We only came up with two parlays, one of which forced us to go four-deep in games.  We are in the hole a bit too much to risk additional funds on games we do not all believe can win.

We almost made a decision to double our investment on this week’s games, but the Captain warned us that doubling down almost always ballooned into something out of control.  If you lose $100 this week, bet $200 next week; if you lose again, then bet $400 the next week; then $800, $1,600, $3,200, etc.  If you get on a really cold streak, soon you are betting your house and car, and your family, and your kidney, etc.  So, we stick with equal unit wagers on all games.

REMEMBER THIS: We are playing with imaginary currency.  So, we actually could double down, because $200 of fake dough is equal to $100 of fake dough.  We do know that a large number of you reading this use the real stuff, so we are going to approach this weekly feature as if it was real.  Also, there are more than one of you that have told us that you modify our selections and our Ratings’ Spreads and actually do quite well with the data.  One of you has even told us about how you have been ultra successful, but we did not press this issue in order for you to keep your method private.  Any method that really works quickly doesn’t work once the world discovers the secret, because the odds then change, making the system worthless.

Here are our picks for this week.  We hope they are a tad better than worthless, but we have our doubts.

#1@ +170  
Must Win Must Lose
UL-Lafayette Texas St.
South Carolina Tennessee
San Diego St. Boise St.

 

#2 @ +137  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami (O) Kent St.
Temple Connecticut
Tulane Florida Int’l.
Houston Tulsa

 

October 27, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 27-31, 2016

The Hook
We talked about this in a previous posting, but we now have real data to show you why you should not wager real money on our picks. Last week, we hit a small bonanza, and we came within a few seconds of a major, albeit imaginary, windfall profit.

We issued four long shot money line parlays, each returning better than 2 to 1 odds. We won on two of the four and came within seconds of winning the third one. As it is, our profit from last week was 61% return on the investment. Had that third game that we lost in the last seconds been a winner as well, our profit would have exceeded 100% on the investment.

It’s the “last-second”, “one play,” “fluke play” stuff that hooks the investor to make him or her return the next week to wager more. We have no problem with this. We can wager “$500,000,” and it is the same as if we wagered “$1.” It’s just a fun exercise for a half dozen math geeks, four of whom are members of the fairer sex by the way.

What we have noticed so far this season is that our college picks are winning, while the NFL picks are not doing well at all. The 2016 NFL season has been too tipsy-turvy to hit on parlays. Sure, you can pick New England to win at -300, but that won’t help you much, because at -300, the Patriots basically have to win out to keep you from losing money. If they go 12-4, and you bet on them to win every week at a -300 average, you will invest $300 every week and win $100 12 times, while losing $300 four times. This would allow you to break even in theory, but New England doesn’t go off at -300 each week. They might lose at -450. They might win at -600 over a lousy team. Your invested amount won’t get you the profit to buy that new pearl necklace for that special lady in your life, or that new cell phone with the 16 megapixel camera to replace that camera that is best used to start a campfire.

Until otherwise determined to be safe, we are going to limit our money line parlays to college games only. The upset tendencies this time of year tend to be more conservative than the NFL.

For the season, our “just for fun only” picks have wagered on 31 money line parlay games, all at better than even money odds. We have won 10 of the 31 at an average of $283.25 (on $100 wagered) and lost the other 21 ($-100). This brings us a return of $-130 for the season, which is still a negative 4% return on investment. For what it’s worth, the college selections are responsible for 80% of the winnings, and those picks alone have a positive return on investment, which is why we are going only with college picks this week.

We are going to issue just three selections this week. All three are very long shots such that winning just any one of these three games will make our week an imaginary profitable one. One of the parlays combines two underdogs that we believe can win outright and return an incredible 6+ times what we are pretending to invest.

Look carefully at all three parlays. There is a reason they call them “long shots.” Chances are high that all three will lose, so be forewarned all you reading this with a URL from Las Vegas as well as all you that have figured out which two online books you can find to plug the numbers into a calculator and discover which book we used for each parlay. Remember this: just since we started this feature 15 minutes ago, three of the games that make up the parlays have changed the money line odds.

This Week’s Games

October 27-31,2016
1. College Parlay @ +295
Temple over Cincinnati
Indiana over Maryland
Memphis over Tulsa
Central Michigan over Kent St.
N. C. St. over Boston College
 
2. College Parlay @ +324
Toledo over Ohio
Wake Forest over Army
Southern Miss. over Marshall
Florida over Georgia
Tennessee over South Carolina
Penn St. over Purdue
Washington St. over Oregon St.
 
3. College Parlay @ +607
North Texas over UTSA
Kentucky over Missouri

 

 

October 3, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 5-8, 2016

5-7 Bowl Teams Could Increase This Year

Last year, Minnesota, Nebraska, and San Jose State finished with 5-7 regular season records but received bowl bids when only 77 FBS teams were bowl eligible at the end of the season.  These three schools held the three highest Academic Progress Rate (APR) Scores of the teams finishing 5-7.  As luck would have it, all three schools won their bowl games.

This year, the number of teams failing to reach 6-6 or better records could be fewer than last year’s 77.  It could be as low as 71 or 72, meaning there could be bowls where both teams are 5-7, and there could be bowls that have to invite teams with fanbases so small, they could arrive at the bowl in a bus.

The logical reply is that there are too many bowls, and this is quite obvious to all with half a brain.  The actual reply is that these bowls exist to make money for the sponsors, or at least to attempt to make money for the sponsors (advertising plays a major part in making money for a corporation).

The intelligent thing to do would be to expand the playoffs to eight teams, and use seven bowls to play these games.  Then, cap the number of bowls so that there can be no more than 40 in a single season.  With seven of the 40 being used for the Playoffs, and with eight teams qualifying for the Playoffs, 66 additional teams would receive bowl bids, removing the bottom six of the current 80 without a bowl.  In most years, there should be 66 bowl eligible teams after the Playoff spots had been awarded.

Best of all, with an expansion to eight Playoff teams, all five Power 5 Conference Champions could be guaranteed an automatic spot in the Playoffs.  It would leave room for three at-large teams with the top Group of 5 team getting one of those three bids.

With a need for up to six to eight 5-7 teams to fill bowl spots this year, the APR scores could go quite low, because maybe a dozen schools will finish 5-7.  Let’s take a look at the possible contenders for 5-7 bowl invitations.

Power 5 Leagues

Atlantic Coast Conference

Boston College, Duke, North Carolina St., and Virginia are battling it out for bowl eligibility, and Wake Forest and Georgia Tech could fall back into this pack.  Syracuse is on the outside, looking in, but the Orangemen cannot be eliminated, as Dino Babers creates major headaches for defensive coordinators.

The ACC should have 10 Bowl Eligible participants, counting Notre Dame as one of the 10.  Clemson is an odds-on team to make the Playoffs, while Louisville should earn a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Miami, North Carolina, or Virginia Tech could sneak in as a third conference member playing in a NY6 bowl, and the league has 10 bowl allotments to fill.  This would leave two bowls without ACC bowl eligible teams, likely the Quick Lane and St. Petersburg Bowls.  The ACC voted in the Spring to require 7-5 records for bowl eligibility, but this is just a ceremonial rule until the rest of the FBS follows suit.  There will be 6-6 teams in this league playing in bowls.

Big 12

Texas now appears headed to a probable 5-7 record, and Charles Strong will not survive such a performance in Austin.  Kansas State and Texas Tech are most likely going to be bowl eligible, while Iowa State and Kansas are sure not to be.  That leaves seven bowl eligible teams.  The league most likely will be out in the cold in the Playoff race, as Oklahoma won’t get in with two wins, and neither Baylor nor West Virginia do not look like 12-0 teams.

However, it is possible and actually probable that the number two team in this league will end up in the Cotton Bowl, as one of the NY6 selections.  This means seven bowl eligible teams will come up one short for the Big 12’s seven bowl bids.  The Armed Forces Bowl would be the odd-bowl out.

Big Ten

The Big Ten may not be as strong overall as the SEC, but the top half surely is right there at the top.  Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska remain undefeated overall, as some expected, but Maryland is now 4-0 under first year coach D.J. Durkin, the former assistant to Jim Harbaugh and before that Urban Meyer.  Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan State figure to become bowl eligible, while Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern will compete for bowl eligibility.  Looking at the schedules, it is our current opinion that Iowa and Northwestern will finish 5-7, while Illinois loses at least eight games.

The Ohio State-Michigan winner is an odds-on favorite to claim the number one or number two overall seed in the Playoffs after disposing of the West Division champion in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The loser of this game should head to Pasadena, while the third best team in the league competes with the third best ACC team for the final NY6 Bowl spot.

We see nine league teams gaining bowl eligibility, and for now, we are going with just two making NY6 appearances.  This would require 10 bowl eligible teams, so the Heart of Dallas Bowl would be forced to find a replacement.

Pac-12

This is where there could be a lot of interesting happenings.  Who thought that Oregon might not be bowl eligible this season?  The Ducks have the look of 5-7.  Washington State, California, Arizona, and the UCLA-USC loser will contend for the final bowl spots, with three of the four probably gaining bowl eligiblity.  At the moment, we have Arizona as the odd team out.

The key in the Pac-12 is Washington.  Can the Huskies run the table, win the Pac-12 Championship Game, and make the Playoffs at 13-0?  The PiRates believe this league is too tough to win out on the road, and UW has road games remaining against Oregon, Utah, Cal, and Washington St.  It is our belief that the Huskies will go 12-1 and miss out on the Playoffs if Houston runs the table.

Because of this, UW would then play in the Rose Bowl.  Due to the parity, we do not foresee a second Pac-12 team receving a NY6 Bowl bid, and the league only has seven bowl tie-ins.  With nine probably bowl eligible teams, two of them would be shipped to other bowls as at-large invitees.  Not to worry, because there will be ample spots available and a team like Cal or Washington State would be at the top of the priority list.

SEC

Assuming Alabama continues to add to their dynasty, put the Crimson Tide in the Playoffs as one of the top two seeds.  The winner of this week’s Texas A&M-Tennessee game could finish with 11 wins and definitely receive the Sugar Bowl bid, while the loser could receive the Orange Bowl bid.

Now, look at the bottom.  In the East, South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt, and in the West, Mississippi State will all contend for 5-7 records.  One of these five should be exactly 5-7, and there is a strong possibility that one of the 5-7 teams will earn a bowl bid.

Considering just bowl eligible teams, the SEC is looking at nine getting to 6-6 or better.  When you remove the NY6 invitees, it leaves six schools for the remaining nine bowls, so the Independence, Birmingham, and Music City Bowls are likely to invite at-large teams.

Group of 5 Leagues

AAC

Will Houston run the table, including a win over Louisville?  If so, the Cougars stand a 50-50 chance of making the Playoffs.  Remember, that game with the Cardinals is in Houston.  Houston is virtually guaranteed at least a NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl if they do not make the Playoffs, so the AAC will need nine bowl eligible teams to satisfy its bowl allotments.

Our crystal ball says that seven AAC teams will become bowl eligible, so there will be two more bowl openings for at-large invitees.  Since this league does not prioritize their bowls, and only Navy is really tied to one bowl, it is a pure guess to select the unfortunate bowls that will have to find replacement teams.

As for 5-7 possibles, it would not surprise us if UConn finishes with that record.  Cincinnati could fall into that category as well.  We had Central Florida in that boat last week, but we now believe UCF will get to 6-6.

CUSA

Conference USA is out of any NY6 consideration this year, so it is a cut and dry six bowl bids with a possible seventh with a secondary allotment at the Independence Bowl.  It looks like six schools will be bowl eligible, so once again the Independence Bowl sponsors will be burning the Midnight oil trying to find teams.

MAC

In past years, the Mid-American Conference has benefited from the lack of bowl eligible teams elsewhere and sent one or two extra teams to bowls.  We see more of the same this year, as the league has five bowl tie-ins and it looks like seven teams will be bowl eligible.

It is a long shot, but Western Michigan could sneak into the Cotton Bowl if the Broncos run the table and Houston and Boise State both lose a game.  For now, we say WMU wins the MAC with a 12-1 record and possibly 13-0.  At 13-0, some back room deals could be made to take the Broncos out of a MAC bowl and pair them up with a possible undefeated team from another Group of 5 league.

Pay close attention to the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game in Mid-November.  The winner is likely to squeeze in as the seventh bowl eligible team in the league.  If EMU can win this game, it would be the first time the Eagles make a bowl since 1987.

MWC

San Diego State’s losing to South Alabama hurt Boise State’s chances to pad a resume in the event that Houston loses a game this year.  The Broncos could go 13-0 and not make a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  They still must get past Air Force, and the Falcons have yet to lose this year.

This league is very muddled at this point, and there could be more teams with seven losses than in any other conference.  In the Mountain Division, the bottom four teams could all finish 5-7, but the odds are that one of the four will get to 6-6.  As of today, we are going to tap Wyoming to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and make Coach Craig Bohl a top candidate in Power 5 Conference coaching vacancies in December.  Bohl turned North Dakota State into the Alabama of FCS football.

Colorado State, Utah State, and New Mexico look like 5-7 teams.  The Aggies might be the luckiest ducks in football if they finish 5-7 this year.  See below to the end of this commentary to discover why.

In the West Division, the key is Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors will receive a ticket to the front of the seven-loss line if they lose seven games, because they will be 6-7 and not 5-7.  The NCAA guidelines state that a 6-7 team trumps any 5-7 team in bowl prioritization.  If UH finishes 5-8 or worse, then a host of other 5-7 teams will breathe minor sighs of relief.

The other part of the equation in the West Division is what happens with the two teams from the Silver State.  Nevada and UNLV are as mysterious as Area 51 this year.  The Wolf Pack played well at Notre Dame and then laid an egg in Hawaii.  The Rebels look to be on the cusp of turning things around with future star coach Tony Sanchez.  For our own sanity, we will give both schools promotions to 6-6, but that could change in a week.

Sun Belt

Like CUSA, the SBC is not a contender for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  The league has four bids with a secondary fifth bid, and in all likelihood, there will be four bowl eligible teams.

Independents

We count Notre Dame as an ACC team, since they are open to appear in the ACC’s bowls and can leapfrog over any ACC team with a one game better record.

Massachusetts is not a bowl contender this year, but the Minutemen are an improved school and could be in contention in the next two years.

Army and BYU are the other two independent schools, and the Black Knights of West Point are going to end their bowl drought this year.  BYU is on the bubble.  The Cougars are going to have to fight and claw their way to a 6-6 record.  BYU is guaranteed a spot in the Poinsettia Bowl if they get to 6-6.  Army does not have a bowl tie-in this year due to their failure to compete for a bowl for the last several years, but the Cadets will definitely get a bowl bid with a 6-6 or better record.  They should be at least 7-5, and who knows: they could even win that 12th regular season game this year.

The Academic Progress Rate

The APR decides which 5-7 teams get bowl bids and which do not if there are openings remaining after all bowl eligible teams have been selected.  We believe this week that four 5-7 teams will receive bowl invitations with just 76 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  With four bowl openings, the top four 5-7 teams according to APR scores would receive those bids.  It does not matter if Oregon or Iowa is 5-7 and gets overlooked as a school like Duke or Boston College is also 5-7.  Here is the list of probable 5-7 teams ranked in order of APR score.  Because so many of the top APR scores belong to teams that figure to already be bowl eligible, it could take the 75th best APR score to fill a bowl.

  1. Duke
  2. Northwestern
  3. Vanderbilt
  4. Georgia Tech
  5. Central Florida
  6. Illinois
  7. Boston College
  8. Missouri
  9. Utah St.
  10. South Carolina

What this means is that if Duke finishes 5-7 and there is at least one bowl spot open, the Blue Devils automatically receive that bid.

The rules state that the 5-7 teams that qualify for bowls get to select the remaining bowls that are open in the order of their APR ranking.  For example, let’s say there are four bowl spots remaining and Duke, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, and Georgia Tech all finish 5-7.

Duke would select which of the four bowls that they wish to accept an invitation.  Northwestern would then select which of the remaining three bowls that they wish to accept.  Vanderbilt would then select from the remaining two bowls, and Georgia Tech would receive what was left.

Our wacky bowl selections are at the conclusion of this commentary.

Here are This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Predictive

For newcomers to this site, we supply two types of ratings.  Predictive ratings look forward to the next week’s games and do not act as rankings.  You will see that Louisville is rated ahead of Clemson in our Predictive Ratings, because we believe that if the two teams played this week on a neutral field, Louisville would win.

We look at each game and re-create a logical score of each game based on the statistical and play-by-play data.  Two 28-14 scores can be totally different.  In one instance, the game could have been 28-0 with five minutes left to play, and the second string of the losing team scored two late TDs.  In another instance, the score could be 21-14 with a few minutes left to play, and the trailing team driving in the Red Zone for the tying score, before a pick six at the end makes the game 28-14 rather than 21-21.  Our ratings differentiate between these two outcomes.

We have three separate Predictive Ratings, each using a different logarithm to come up with a power rating number.  We then supply an average for the three.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.2 124.1 131.0 128.8
2 Ohio St. 126.6 125.7 128.1 126.8
3 Louisville 127.6 121.9 127.7 125.7
4 Michigan 124.5 122.0 125.0 123.8
5 Washington 124.4 116.9 124.3 121.9
6 Clemson 124.8 116.8 123.8 121.8
7 LSU 123.6 118.4 122.8 121.6
8 Tennessee 121.7 118.3 121.4 120.5
9 Oklahoma 120.3 117.8 120.3 119.5
10 Miami 120.9 113.9 120.9 118.6
11 Houston 118.3 116.2 120.6 118.4
12 Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.1 116.6
13 Florida St. 118.8 112.0 117.9 116.2
14 North Carolina 118.1 111.5 117.8 115.8
15 Texas A&M 116.2 114.7 115.9 115.6
16 Auburn 115.8 114.2 115.8 115.3
17 Oklahoma St. 114.9 115.7 114.9 115.2
18 Stanford 117.7 110.7 116.6 115.0
19 Ole Miss 117.1 110.9 116.6 114.9
20 Wisconsin 114.4 112.4 114.9 113.9
21 Colorado 114.8 110.4 115.2 113.5
22 Pittsburgh 114.8 111.2 114.1 113.4
23 TCU 113.1 114.2 112.8 113.4
24 Florida 112.4 115.0 110.6 112.7
25 USC 114.7 110.5 112.0 112.4
26 UCLA 112.7 111.2 112.4 112.1
27 Nebraska 112.9 109.3 112.9 111.7
28 Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
29 Baylor 111.1 111.2 111.7 111.3
30 South Florida 111.9 109.2 112.9 111.3
31 Western Michigan 110.9 109.8 112.8 111.2
32 Mississippi St. 112.0 109.8 111.1 111.0
33 Iowa 112.2 109.1 111.5 110.9
34 Texas 110.0 111.7 109.0 110.2
35 Arkansas 112.5 108.1 109.9 110.2
36 Michigan St. 110.2 109.6 108.5 109.4
37 Boise St. 108.1 109.2 109.6 109.0
38 Washington St. 109.5 106.7 109.4 108.6
39 Georgia 108.9 108.3 108.3 108.5
40 Oregon 109.0 107.5 108.2 108.2
41 Kansas St. 106.9 109.8 106.8 107.8
42 Utah 110.3 104.7 108.0 107.7
43 Georgia Tech 109.4 105.1 108.3 107.6
44 BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
45 North Carolina St. 108.1 105.8 107.6 107.2
46 West Virginia 107.6 106.5 107.0 107.0
47 Maryland 106.4 109.7 104.4 106.8
48 Arizona St. 107.0 106.5 105.8 106.5
49 Texas Tech 107.2 106.1 105.3 106.2
50 Northwestern 107.5 102.6 106.0 105.4
51 Penn St. 104.7 106.6 103.5 104.9
52 Toledo 104.8 103.2 105.8 104.6
53 Memphis 106.5 102.3 104.8 104.6
54 Minnesota 103.8 102.5 103.5 103.3
55 Indiana 101.9 105.3 101.2 102.8
56 Arizona 103.8 101.5 102.7 102.7
57 Air Force 102.3 102.7 102.9 102.6
58 California 105.8 98.2 103.7 102.6
59 Virginia 103.3 101.0 102.8 102.4
60 Missouri 102.7 101.7 102.3 102.3
61 San Diego St. 101.5 99.1 103.9 101.5
62 Boston College 101.4 101.2 101.3 101.3
63 Wake Forest 101.8 100.2 101.1 101.1
64 Vanderbilt 102.5 98.6 101.2 100.8
65 Temple 100.4 100.7 100.9 100.7
66 Tulsa 98.9 101.2 99.6 99.9
67 Western Kentucky 100.9 96.5 102.0 99.8
68 Syracuse 101.3 97.7 99.6 99.6
69 Central Michigan 98.8 100.2 99.7 99.6
70 South Carolina 99.9 99.2 99.4 99.5
71 Duke 99.6 99.9 98.2 99.2
72 Cincinnati 98.5 98.9 98.7 98.7
73 Appalachian St. 97.3 96.8 99.1 97.7
74 Navy 97.8 97.9 97.2 97.7
75 Iowa St. 97.9 97.5 97.1 97.5
76 Kentucky 96.4 98.7 95.3 96.8
77 Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
78 Illinois 97.8 94.5 97.0 96.5
79 Connecticut 96.7 94.5 96.4 95.9
80 Utah St. 94.4 96.7 94.3 95.1
81 Troy 92.9 97.5 94.9 95.1
82 Southern Mississippi 94.4 94.9 95.3 94.9
83 Middle Tennessee 94.1 95.5 94.6 94.7
84 Central Florida 93.7 96.1 94.0 94.6
85 Ohio 91.5 99.7 92.3 94.5
86 Rutgers 95.6 93.2 94.2 94.4
87 New Mexico 92.5 95.2 93.2 93.7
88 Northern Illinois 92.0 93.5 92.9 92.8
89 Purdue 93.2 91.5 92.2 92.3
90 Georgia Southern 91.5 91.3 93.8 92.2
91 Oregon St. 94.2 90.1 92.2 92.2
92 East Carolina 91.3 93.6 91.3 92.1
93 Marshall 90.0 92.7 91.7 91.5
94 Louisiana Tech 90.0 92.3 91.1 91.1
95 UNLV 89.0 93.4 89.2 90.5
96 SMU 89.9 89.6 91.9 90.5
97 Old Dominion 88.1 91.5 88.5 89.4
98 Akron 86.9 92.7 88.4 89.3
99 Nevada 87.5 90.6 88.5 88.9
100 Arkansas St. 87.5 89.5 89.0 88.7
101 San Jose St. 87.5 87.9 87.8 87.7
102 Ball St. 85.8 87.6 86.6 86.7
103 South Alabama 83.8 90.9 85.2 86.6
104 Tulane 84.8 89.2 85.5 86.5
105 Wyoming 85.4 85.7 85.8 85.7
106 Colorado St. 84.6 86.9 84.9 85.5
107 Miami (O) 84.4 85.5 86.1 85.3
108 Kansas 83.7 90.1 80.8 84.9
109 Kent St. 83.8 85.3 84.0 84.4
110 Bowling Green 84.2 84.0 83.6 83.9
111 Georgia St. 81.7 86.4 83.6 83.9
112 Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
113 Eastern Michigan 81.7 85.3 82.6 83.2
114 Rice 80.7 87.5 80.7 83.0
115 UTSA 79.0 86.5 81.6 82.4
116 Florida Atlantic 79.7 84.3 82.1 82.0
117 Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.6 81.4
118 Buffalo 78.0 85.8 79.1 81.0
119 Florida International 78.5 83.9 78.2 80.2
120 Hawaii 80.7 79.4 79.8 80.0
121 UL-Lafayette 76.7 84.2 78.4 79.8
122 Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
123 North Texas 75.3 78.1 75.5 76.3
124 New Mexico St. 73.2 76.4 74.1 74.6
125 UTEP 71.7 75.9 73.1 73.6
126 UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
127 Charlotte 68.7 75.0 69.8 71.2
128 Texas St. 70.1 71.3 71.1 70.8

Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings are more like the poll rankings you see in the media, such as the AP and Coaches Polls.  These ratings attempt to rank from best to worst based on what the teams have done so far this year.  They are not meant to predict outcomes of future games.  Wins and schedule strength matter in these ratings, and whether a team deserved to win because they dominated a game or lucked out by winning a game they would have lost nine times out of 10, doesn’t affect their rating.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.9 109.2 112.9 111.3
Temple 100.4 100.7 100.9 100.7
Cincinnati 98.5 98.9 98.7 98.7
Connecticut 96.7 94.5 96.4 95.9
Central Florida 93.7 96.1 94.0 94.6
East Carolina 91.3 93.6 91.3 92.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 118.3 116.2 120.6 118.4
Memphis 106.5 102.3 104.8 104.6
Tulsa 98.9 101.2 99.6 99.9
Navy 97.8 97.9 97.2 97.7
SMU 89.9 89.6 91.9 90.5
Tulane 84.8 89.2 85.5 86.5
         
AAC Averages 99.1 99.2 99.5 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.6 121.9 127.7 125.7
Clemson 124.8 116.8 123.8 121.8
Florida St. 118.8 112.0 117.9 116.2
North Carolina St. 108.1 105.8 107.6 107.2
Boston College 101.4 101.2 101.3 101.3
Wake Forest 101.8 100.2 101.1 101.1
Syracuse 101.3 97.7 99.6 99.6
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 120.9 113.9 120.9 118.6
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.1 116.6
North Carolina 118.1 111.5 117.8 115.8
Pittsburgh 114.8 111.2 114.1 113.4
Georgia Tech 109.4 105.1 108.3 107.6
Virginia 103.3 101.0 102.8 102.4
Duke 99.6 99.9 98.2 99.2
         
ACC Averages 111.9 108.2 111.3 110.5
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.3 117.8 120.3 119.5
Oklahoma St. 114.9 115.7 114.9 115.2
TCU 113.1 114.2 112.8 113.4
Baylor 111.1 111.2 111.7 111.3
Texas 110.0 111.7 109.0 110.2
Kansas St. 106.9 109.8 106.8 107.8
West Virginia 107.6 106.5 107.0 107.0
Texas Tech 107.2 106.1 105.3 106.2
Iowa St. 97.9 97.5 97.1 97.5
Kansas 83.7 90.1 80.8 84.9
         
Big 12 Averages 107.3 108.1 106.6 107.3
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 126.6 125.7 128.1 126.8
Michigan 124.5 122.0 125.0 123.8
Michigan St. 110.2 109.6 108.5 109.4
Maryland 106.4 109.7 104.4 106.8
Penn St. 104.7 106.6 103.5 104.9
Indiana 101.9 105.3 101.2 102.8
Rutgers 95.6 93.2 94.2 94.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 114.4 112.4 114.9 113.9
Nebraska 112.9 109.3 112.9 111.7
Iowa 112.2 109.1 111.5 110.9
Northwestern 107.5 102.6 106.0 105.4
Minnesota 103.8 102.5 103.5 103.3
Illinois 97.8 94.5 97.0 96.5
Purdue 93.2 91.5 92.2 92.3
         
Big Ten Averages 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.4
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 100.9 96.5 102.0 99.8
Middle Tennessee 94.1 95.5 94.6 94.7
Marshall 90.0 92.7 91.7 91.5
Old Dominion 88.1 91.5 88.5 89.4
Florida Atlantic 79.7 84.3 82.1 82.0
Florida International 78.5 83.9 78.2 80.2
Charlotte 68.7 75.0 69.8 71.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 94.4 94.9 95.3 94.9
Louisiana Tech 90.0 92.3 91.1 91.1
Rice 80.7 87.5 80.7 83.0
UTSA 79.0 86.5 81.6 82.4
North Texas 75.3 78.1 75.5 76.3
UTEP 71.7 75.9 73.1 73.6
         
CUSA Averages 83.9 87.3 84.9 85.4
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
         
Independents Averages 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.5 99.7 92.3 94.5
Akron 86.9 92.7 88.4 89.3
Miami (O) 84.4 85.5 86.1 85.3
Kent St. 83.8 85.3 84.0 84.4
Bowling Green 84.2 84.0 83.6 83.9
Buffalo 78.0 85.8 79.1 81.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 110.9 109.8 112.8 111.2
Toledo 104.8 103.2 105.8 104.6
Central Michigan 98.8 100.2 99.7 99.6
Northern Illinois 92.0 93.5 92.9 92.8
Ball St. 85.8 87.6 86.6 86.7
Eastern Michigan 81.7 85.3 82.6 83.2
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.7 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 108.1 109.2 109.6 109.0
Air Force 102.3 102.7 102.9 102.6
Utah St. 94.4 96.7 94.3 95.1
New Mexico 92.5 95.2 93.2 93.7
Wyoming 85.4 85.7 85.8 85.7
Colorado St. 84.6 86.9 84.9 85.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 101.5 99.1 103.9 101.5
UNLV 89.0 93.4 89.2 90.5
Nevada 87.5 90.6 88.5 88.9
San Jose St. 87.5 87.9 87.8 87.7
Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.6 81.4
Hawaii 80.7 79.4 79.8 80.0
         
MWC Averages 91.1 92.7 91.6 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 124.4 116.9 124.3 121.9
Stanford 117.7 110.7 116.6 115.0
Washington St. 109.5 106.7 109.4 108.6
Oregon 109.0 107.5 108.2 108.2
California 105.8 98.2 103.7 102.6
Oregon St. 94.2 90.1 92.2 92.2
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colorado 114.8 110.4 115.2 113.5
USC 114.7 110.5 112.0 112.4
UCLA 112.7 111.2 112.4 112.1
Utah 110.3 104.7 108.0 107.7
Arizona St. 107.0 106.5 105.8 106.5
Arizona 103.8 101.5 102.7 102.7
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.3 106.3 109.2 108.6
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 121.7 118.3 121.4 120.5
Florida 112.4 115.0 110.6 112.7
Georgia 108.9 108.3 108.3 108.5
Missouri 102.7 101.7 102.3 102.3
Vanderbilt 102.5 98.6 101.2 100.8
South Carolina 99.9 99.2 99.4 99.5
Kentucky 96.4 98.7 95.3 96.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.2 124.1 131.0 128.8
LSU 123.6 118.4 122.8 121.6
Texas A&M 116.2 114.7 115.9 115.6
Auburn 115.8 114.2 115.8 115.3
Ole Miss 117.1 110.9 116.6 114.9
Mississippi St. 112.0 109.8 111.1 111.0
Arkansas 112.5 108.1 109.9 110.2
         
SEC Averages 112.4 110.0 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 97.3 96.8 99.1 97.7
Troy 92.9 97.5 94.9 95.1
Georgia Southern 91.5 91.3 93.8 92.2
Arkansas St. 87.5 89.5 89.0 88.7
South Alabama 83.8 90.9 85.2 86.6
Georgia St. 81.7 86.4 83.6 83.9
UL-Lafayette 76.7 84.2 78.4 79.8
Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
New Mexico St. 73.2 76.4 74.1 74.6
UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
Texas St. 70.1 71.3 71.1 70.8
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 85.6 83.4 83.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.4 110.0 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 111.9 108.2 111.3 110.5
3 Pac-12 110.3 106.3 109.2 108.6
4 Big Ten 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.4
5 Big 12 107.3 108.1 106.6 107.3
6 Independents 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
7 AAC 99.1 99.2 99.5 99.2
8 MWC 91.1 92.7 91.6 91.8
9 MAC 90.2 92.7 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 83.9 87.3 84.9 85.4
11 Sun Belt 81.9 85.6 83.4 83.6

This Week’s Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 5-8
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wednesday, October 5      
Arkansas St. Georgia Southern -1.0 1.2 -1.8
         
Thursday, October 6      
Louisiana Tech Western Kentucky -7.9 -1.2 -7.9
Memphis Temple 9.1 4.6 6.9
         
Friday, October 7      
Boston College Clemson -20.4 -12.6 -19.5
Central Florida Tulane 11.9 9.9 11.5
Tulsa SMU 12.0 14.6 10.7
New Mexico Boise St. -12.6 -11.0 -13.4
         
Saturday, October 8      
Connecticut Cincinnati 1.2 -1.4 0.7
North Carolina St. Notre Dame -2.0 -0.9 -1.0
Mississippi St. Auburn -0.8 -1.4 -1.7
Penn St. Maryland 1.3 -0.1 2.1
Florida LSU -8.2 -0.4 -9.2
Minnesota Iowa -5.4 -3.6 -5.0
UTSA Southern Miss. -12.9 -5.9 -11.2
Kansas TCU -26.9 -21.6 -29.5
Texas (N) Oklahoma -10.3 -6.1 -11.3
South Florida East Carolina 23.6 18.6 24.6
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 8.4 9.1 8.8
Ohio Bowling Green 9.3 17.7 10.7
Eastern Michigan Toledo -20.6 -15.4 -20.7
Navy Houston -17.5 -15.3 -20.4
Akron Miami (O) 4.5 9.2 4.3
Texas A&M Tennessee -2.5 -0.6 -2.5
North Carolina Virginia Tech 4.5 -1.7 3.7
Florida Atlantic Charlotte 23.5 11.8 14.8
Buffalo Kent St. -3.3 3.0 -2.4
Georgia St. Texas St. 14.1 17.6 15.0
Wyoming Air Force -13.9 -14.0 -14.1
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 20.0 21.2 20.8
Ohio St. Indiana 27.7 23.4 29.9
Michigan St. BYU 3.7 9.0 2.4
Illinois Purdue 7.1 8.5 7.3
Duke Army 9.8 1.7 5.4
Central Michigan Ball St. 16.0 15.6 16.1
Kentucky Vanderbilt -3.1 2.9 -2.9
USC Colorado 2.9 3.1 -0.2
San Jose St. Hawaii 10.8 12.5 12.0
Old Dominion Massachusetts 10.0 6.5 9.1
Western Michigan Northern Illinois 21.9 19.3 22.9
Rutgers Michigan -25.9 -25.8 -27.8
Arkansas Alabama -15.7 -12.3 -18.1
Kansas St. Texas Tech 2.7 6.7 4.5
North Texas Marshall -11.7 -11.6 -13.2
Nevada Fresno St. 10.3 9.1 11.9
UL-Monroe Idaho -4.0 -4.9 -4.8
Wake Forest Syracuse 3.5 5.5 4.5
South Carolina Georgia -7.0 -7.1 -6.9
Oregon Washington -12.4 -6.4 -13.1
Miami (Fla) Florida St. 4.1 3.9 5.0
UTEP Florida Int’l. -4.3 -5.5 -2.6
Oregon St. California -8.6 -5.1 -8.5
Utah Arizona 9.5 6.2 8.3
Colorado St. Utah St. -6.8 -6.8 -6.4
San Diego St. UNLV 15.5 8.7 17.7
Arizona St. UCLA -2.7 -1.7 -3.6
Stanford Washington St. 11.2 7.0 10.2

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA Nevada vs. Louisiana Tech
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC USC vs. Boise St.
Cure AAC SBC [Army] vs. Appalachian St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Marshall vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Central Florida vs. Ohio U
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Tulsa vs. Western Mich.
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {Boston Coll.}
Dollar General MAC SBC Toledo vs. Ga. Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Southern Miss. vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND South Florida vs. Georgia Tech
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten [Ball St.] vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC/ND [Washington St.] vs. {South Carolina}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {Northwestern} vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC Wake Forest vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Colorado
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. UCLA
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Utah
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC [N.Illinois] vs. {Utah St.}
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Florida
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Notre Dame vs. Arizona St.
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Old Dominion vs. UNLV
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Penn St. vs. [California]
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Tennessee
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. LSU
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Houston
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Georgia vs. Nebraska
Cotton At-Large At-Large Baylor vs. Miami (Fla.)
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Nat’l Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} At-Large Selection of projected 5-7 team

 

 

 

 

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