The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 15, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL–Week 11, November 18-22, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
AtlantaNew England-8.7-8.6-8.1
ClevelandDetroit12.812.611.8
JacksonvilleSan Francisco-8.0-6.5-7.8
BuffaloIndianapolis8.89.29.6
N.Y. JetsMiami-6.5-6.2-6.8
CarolinaWashington3.83.74.7
ChicagoBaltimore-5.3-4.8-5.2
PhiladelphiaNew Orleans-3.7-2.3-3.1
TennesseeHouston18.820.019.2
MinnesotaGreen Bay-1.6-1.4-2.6
Las VegasCincinnati-1.5-1.9-1.2
SeattleArizona0.0-0.9-0.7
Kansas CityDallas2.51.52.3
LA ChargersPittsburgh1.92.82.5
Tampa BayN.Y. Giants13.813.113.1

PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
AtlantaNew England46.5
ClevelandDetroit50.5
JacksonvilleSan Francisco45
BuffaloIndianapolis49.5
N.Y. JetsMiami43.5
CarolinaWashington40.5
ChicagoBaltimore42
PhiladelphiaNew Orleans43.5
TennesseeHouston51
MinnesotaGreen Bay47
Las VegasCincinnati52.5
SeattleArizona49
Kansas CityDallas58.5
LA ChargersPittsburgh42.5
Tampa BayN.Y. Giants49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo108.5108.5108.7108.524.56-3
New England106.4106.2106.7106.419.56-4
Miami96.596.697.196.7193-7
N. Y. Jets87.487.987.887.724.52-7

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore103.5103.1103.1103.224.56-3
Cincinnati100.2100.799.9100.3265-4
Pittsburgh100.7100.0100.1100.3185-3-1
Cleveland100.4100.399.5100.1255-5

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee104.9105.1105.6105.227.58-2
Indianapolis102.7102.3102.1102.4255-5
Jacksonville91.292.691.391.721.52-7
Houston89.188.189.388.923.51-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City103.8103.7103.5103.7296-4
LA Chargers99.799.799.699.624.55-4
Denver98.198.198.098.116.55-5
Las Vegas95.795.895.795.726.55-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas104.3105.2104.2104.629.57-2
Philadelphia99.699.7100.599.921.54-6
N.Y. Giants96.896.996.796.819.53-6
Washington95.795.895.295.619.53-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.2106.2106.7106.4258-2
Minnesota101.5101.8101.2101.5224-5
Chicago95.295.394.995.117.53-5
Detroit90.690.790.790.725.50-8-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay107.5107.1106.8107.129.56-3
New Orleans106.3105.0106.6106.0225-4
Carolina97.097.097.497.2215-5
Atlanta94.894.695.595.0274-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona105.8106.4106.4106.2268-2
LA Rams104.7104.9104.5104.7277-3
Seattle102.8102.5102.6102.6233-6
San Francisco102.2102.2102.1102.223.54-5

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Season Ended Today
AFC
1Tennessee
2Buffalo
3Baltimore
4Kansas City
5Pittsburgh
6New England
7LA Chargers

NFC
1Green Bay
2Arizona
3Dallas
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Carolina
Playoff Projection Seeds
AFC Seeding
1Tennessee
2Baltimore
3New England
4Kansas City
5Buffalo
6Pittsburgh
7Indianapolis

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2Dallas
3Arizona
4Tampa Bay
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Minnesota
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Indianapolis
New England over Pittsburgh
Kansas City over Buffalo
Dallas over Minnesota
New Orleans over Arizona
Tampa Bay over LA Rams

Divisional Round
Tennessee over Kansas City
New England over Baltimore
Green Bay over New Orleans
Tampa Bay over Dallas

Conference Championship
New England over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over Green Bay

Super Bowl 56 (LA)
Tampa Bay over New England

November 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings NFL Football–November 11-15, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
MiamiBaltimore-7.1-6.6-6.1
IndianapolisJacksonville15.113.114.8
New EnglandCleveland4.13.64.9
DallasAtlanta8.09.16.6
N.Y. JetsBuffalo-16.7-16.0-16.0
TennesseeNew Orleans1.63.32.0
WashingtonTampa Bay-13.5-13.2-13.7
PittsburghDetroit14.814.014.4
LA ChargersMinnesota3.13.13.8
ArizonaCarolina16.917.917.6
Green BaySeattle3.94.44.5
DenverPhiladelphia5.75.94.9
Las VegasKansas City-0.5-0.10.2
San FranciscoLA Rams-3.9-4.3-4.2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
MiamiBaltimore45
IndianapolisJacksonville47
New EnglandCleveland43.5
DallasAtlanta57.5
N.Y. JetsBuffalo47.5
TennesseeNew Orleans49.5
WashingtonTampa Bay49
PittsburghDetroit44.5
LA ChargersMinnesota46.5
ArizonaCarolina47
Green BaySeattle50
DenverPhiladelphia37.5
Las VegasKansas City55.5
San FranciscoLA Rams51.5

Teams Not Playing This Week

Cincinnati
Houston
N.Y. Giants
Chicago

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

November 9, 2021
A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo107.3107.2107.3107.223.55-3
New England103.7103.3103.8103.6195-4
Miami95.195.295.795.319.52-7
N. Y. Jets88.689.289.289.0242-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore105.2104.8104.8104.925.56-2
Cleveland102.6102.7101.9102.424.55-4
Pittsburgh102.0101.4101.6101.718.55-3
Cincinnati99.9100.499.6100.0265-4

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tennessee104.9105.2105.6105.227.57-2
Indianapolis103.0102.5102.6102.725.54-5
Jacksonville90.992.490.891.421.52-6
Houston88.887.889.088.623.51-8

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City101.5101.3101.0101.3295-4
LA Chargers100.9101.0101.0100.924.55-3
Denver100.2100.3100.2100.216.55-4
Las Vegas98.098.298.298.126.55-3

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas101.9102.8101.5102.1306-2
Philadelphia97.597.598.397.8213-6
N.Y. Giants96.596.696.496.519.53-6
Washington93.593.592.893.319.52-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay105.0105.0105.4105.1267-2
Minnesota100.7100.9100.2100.6223-5
Chicago94.995.094.694.817.53-5
Detroit89.889.889.789.8260-8

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay110.0109.7109.5109.729.56-2
New Orleans106.3104.9106.6105.9225-3
Atlanta96.996.797.997.227.54-4
Carolina94.794.594.894.7214-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona108.6109.4109.5109.2268-1
LA Rams106.9107.2106.9107.027.57-2
Seattle104.0103.7103.9103.9243-5
San Francisco100.099.999.799.9243-5

This Week’s Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1Tennessee
2Baltimore
3LA Chargers
4Buffalo
5Las Vegas
6Pittsburgh
7New England


NFC
1Arizona
2Green Bay
3Tampa Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Atlanta

Projected Playoff Seeds

AFC Seeding
1Baltimore
2Tennessee
3LA Chargers
4New England
5Pittsburgh
6Denver
7Cleveland


NFC Seeding
1Arizona
2Tampa Bay
3Green Bay
4Dallas
5LA Rams
6New Orleans
7Atlanta

Projected Playoff Rounds

Wildcard Round
Tennessee over Cleveland
LA Chargers over Denver
New England over Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Green Bay over New Orleans
LA Rams over Dallas




Divisional Round
Baltimore over New England
LA Chargers over Tennessee
Arizona over LA Rams
Tampa Bay over Green Bay
Conference Championship
LA Chargers over Baltimore
Tampa Bay over Arizona


Super Bowl 56 (LA)
LA Chargers over Tampa Bay

October 6, 2021

PiRate Picks–October 9-10, 2021

Last week, time constraints limited this weekly feature to the bare minimum. We have plenty of time this week, so rather than just list the games we have chosen, there’s time to go a little more in-depth with our selections.

First, we made a minimal profit of imaginary revenue last week, as we hit on the long odds 4-game parlay at +372.50 with Texas beating TCU, Wake Forest beating Louisville, South Carolina beating Troy, and Oklahoma State holding on to edge Baylor.

This week presented us with numerous opportunities where certain factors triggered plays. We ended up trimming it to eight parlays, and all but one game coming on Saturday. We had one key Sunday game but could not find an NFL partner for the game, so it attached to other college games to give us the biggest odds of the week. Without further adieu, here are our picks for this week. Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, and we highly encourage you not to wager real money on these selections, unless you have other research that the information herein merely endorses.

Odds:+153.06
Must WinOpponent
Wake ForestSyracuse
BaylorWest Virginia

This first parlay is cut and dry. We believe that the public is not all that high on the two favorites. Wake Forest is supposed to be weak most years, but Dave Clawson has the Demon Deacons creeping up on Clemson for best in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. Baylor came oh so close to knocking off Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week. Had they pulled that win off, the Bears might be approaching the Top 10. West Virginia has played a tough schedule in a short time, and we feel they might show some fatigue in this game.

Odds:+155
Must WinOpponent
UTSAWestern Kentucky

Obviously, this is not a parlay. It is one of four games where we are picking an underdog to win straight up. Western Kentucky is due to bounce after getting up and playing a close game at Michigan State, while UTSA has quietly started 5-0 with a Power 5 win.

Odds:+160
Must WinOpponent
TexasOklahoma

It hasn’t been often in the last 15 years that we went into the second weekend in October believing that Texas would beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma has been narrowly escaping with wins over mediocre competition. After getting pasted at Arkansas, Texas has begun to look like a team ready to compete for the Big 12 Championship Game. We consider this a tossup game, so we go with the better odds and the underdog.

Odds:+160
Must WinOpponent
NebraskaMichigan

This is more of a system play. Nebraska won by more than 38 points in a conference game and now plays a conference home game the next week. In a high percentage of cases like this, the home team continues to play at the same top level it played the previous week. Additionally, Michigan is on the road for the second consecutive week in a key conference game. This has the look of a traditional upset.

Odds:+161.90
Must WinOpponent
San Jose St.Colorado St.
Bowling GreenAkron

The key game here is the San Jose State-Colorado State game. We feel like the wrong team is favored. However, playing SJSU in a single game does not supply us with the odds we look for when playing Money Lines. So, we added the Bowling Green game to it to make a parlay that has fat payout odds. The betting public may not see how much the Falcons have improved this year, while Akron remains one of the five worst teams in the FBS.

Odds:+188.93
Must WinOpponent
IowaPenn St.
TennesseeSouth Carolina
Arizona St.Stanford

This is the first of three big-odds payouts we are playing this week. In the first game in this parlay, our ratings show Iowa at the present time to be good enough to run the table and make the Playoffs. Penn State looks like a 10-2 team destined to play on New Year’s Day in Florida. Kirk Ferentz may have his best team in Iowa City.

In the second leg of this parlay, Tennessee fits the same criteria that Nebraska faces. They won by 38 points against a conference opponent and play at home this week against another conference opponent. While South Carolina’s defense is considerably better than Missouri’s, their offense is not as sharp, and we believe Josh Heupel’s Vols are sitting on another great performance.

The third part of this parlay is simply a case where we believe Arizona State is clearly superior to Stanford on both sides of the ball and should win by double digits.

Odds:+195.50
Must WinOpponent
South AlabamaTexas St.
Kent St.Buffalo
WisconsinIllinois

South Alabama looks to be 10-14 points better than Texas State, and when we saw the Money Line odds on this game, it was the first one that went into our play pool. Kent State has a score to settle with Buffalo. In the weird Covid year of 2020, The Golden Flashes only managed to get four games in the books. Buffalo was the last, and Kent State went into this game 3-0 and averaging 53 points per game. Buffalo was also 3-0. The Bulls hung 70 points on the Flashes. Kent State gets their revenge this week.

Wisconsin is the best 1-3 team in America. It is odd how many times unforced errors have hurt the Badgers in their three losses. The Badgers don’t particularly like their rival to the south, and we expect UW to win this game by a large margin.

Odds:+241.12
Must WinOpponent
Central MichiganOhio U
BYUBoise St.
CarolinaPhiladelphia

Finally, we come to our biggest odds play of the week. We only found one NFL game we wanted to play based on the Money Line odds, so we had to parlay the Carolina Panthers with a couple of college games.

While 2021 looks like a so-so year for Central Michigan, Ohio is in a state of flux after former coach Frank Solich retired during the Summer. The Bobcats are almost sleep-walking through games this year, which can be attributed to growing pains.

Boise State is a mere shell of its former self under Bryan Harsin. New coach Andy Avalos inherited 16 returning starters, but the Broncos never played up to their potential last year and appear to be repeating it this year. Maybe, they were just a bit overrated?

BYU has shown the world that they were more than just Zach Wilson last year. The Cougars’ defense is top notch, while the offense is a bit more deliberate this year, but it helps the defense perform even better. Other than the fact that the Cougars may be looking ahead a tad to next week’s game at Baylor, everything here looks like a BYU win.

Carolina should be a heavier favorite over Philadelphia. The loss to Dallas has been factored a bit too heavily. We like the Panthers solely because their Money Line odds are so favorable this week.

July 20, 2021

Adjusting Teams Due To The Transfer Portal

The Transfer Portal Giveth And Taketh Away

Like a lord of the gridiron, the new transfer portal has wreaked havoc on the overall landscape of college football.  We have recently completed updating the effect on the PiRate Ratings for all the transfers that have both left a former school and chosen a new destination for 2021.  Among those that have entered the transfer portal, there are a handful of point spread-moving talents that have not officially chosen a new school.  A trio of what we call 15+ talents on a rating scale of 0-20 are leaning to schools but have yet to officially sign.  These players will affect our ratings when they do sign.

The PiRate Ratings adjusted the talent levels of the teams by considering the players entering the Transfer Portal like they were graduating seniors.  As for the entry to a new team, the field had to be taken on a case by case basis.  The players that played 1 to 4 games last year are classified as redshirt players and rated as such.  There are others that redshirted without playing any games last year, and they are rated a little differently than the 1-4 game players.  We take these 0-game players, and if they rate 15 or above in talent, they become the equivalent of a hot freshman expected to contribute immediately, like Trevor Lawrence or Hershel Walker.

For the rest of the group of experienced college players, we consider these as regular talent added at what we consider full strength.  If a defensive end that started for a Power Conference team last year or the year before becomes a starter at a new Power Conference team, the new team is graded like the new player is a returning starter, which is optimal for the team.  If the Power Conference starter moves to a Group of 5 team, there is a bonus score if that player is expected to be the starter.

All transfers are not only rated for their talent, but there is a positional adjustment as well.  The starting QB from a Power 5 team is a little more important than the starting punter.  We use the accepted advanced metric positional hierarchy used in pro football and put our own stamp on it;  the hierarchy goes:

  1. Quarterback
  2. Top Outside Pass Rusher (DE or OLB)
  3. Blind-side Tackle (Left tackle for Right-hand QB)
  4. Top Cover Cornerback
  5. #1 Wide Receiver
  6. Defensive Tackle
  7. Running Back
  8. #2 Outside Pass Rusher (DE or OLB)
  9. Middle/Inside Linebacker
  10. Tight End
  11. Free Safety
  12. Weakside Linebacker (or Nickel Back)
  13. Right Tackle (or LT for left-handed QB)
  14. #2 Cornerback
  15. Right Guard
  16. #2 Wide Receiver
  17. Center
  18. Strong Safety
  19. Strongside Linebacker
  20. Left Guard
  21. Nose Tackle
  22. #3 Wide Receiver
  23. Kicker
  24. Punter
  25. Return Specialist

It isn’t exactly cut and dry, as we have to analyze each team to see if their style of play is a pro-style.  For teams that run the option, either from the spread or with a QB under center, the positional adjustment is a bit different.  What it adds up to is a lot of extra work, but without this work, the preseason power ratings would be too inaccurate to be useful.  

Let’s look at an example of a couple of teams that have seen their historical preseason power rating altered by the Transfer Portal.  

The Auburn Tigers have a new coaching staff with Bryan Harsin coming in from Boise State.  Harsin hired two gems as his coordinators, both with extensive SEC experience.  Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo and Defensive Coordinator Derek Mason are like having two extra head coaches on staff, and this generates a movement in the preseason rating.  But, we must also count the positives that former head coach Gus Malzahn and Kevin Steele brought to Auburn and make a coaching adjustment score from the January Citrus Bowl to the start of this season.  

Now, take a look at the key transfers for Auburn as the 2021 season nears.  Wide receiver Hal Presley left for Baylor.  He’s a redshirt freshman who played 0 games last year.  

Big Cat Bryant had three QB sacks, an interception, a couple of QB hurries, and 17 tackles at his defensive tackle position.  His leaving to join Malzahn at Central Florida is a bigger loss than Presley as it applies to week 1 of the 2021 season.  

Daquan Newkirk is a senior for the second year and put up similar numbers to Bryant, while being able to play both defensive tackle and defensive end.  His loss to SEC rival Florida hurts the Tigers a tad more.  

Running back D.J. Williams was only Auburn’s third option last year, but he has some worth.  If you follow the game rabidly like we do, you might remember Williams putting a hurt on #1 LSU two years ago, as his 150+ total yards led to Auburn almost knocking off the eventual national champion.  Florida State will get more out of him than Auburn would this year.

Safety Chris Thompson, Jr. was a freshman who saw action in enough games to be considered a sophomore in experience, but he will still be a freshman at his new school, USC.  Thompson rates as a 16 on our talent scale, so he counts like adding a Trevor Lawrence or Hershel Walker freshman to the Trojans.

These five players are the five that can actually move a team’s rating by more than 0.3 points, and together, the quintet reduces Auburn’s overall positional-adjusted talent score by 177 basis points.

Now let’s look at the key players that Auburn gained through the Portal.  We count seven players as being talented enough to improve the War Eagles’ point spread by 0.3 or more points.

They picked up a talented all-star safety from FCS Southeast Missouri in Bydarrius Knighten, who has NFL potential and needs to showcase his talents on the big stage.

Knighten will be joined by a former SEC starting safety in Vanderbilt’s Donovan Kaufman.  Kaufman played just two games in 2020 before a medical issue forced the freshman’s season to end.  He reunites with his former coach and should compete for a starting job at safety and as a return specialist.  Having two safeties with this amount of talent come on board awards a little bonus for the defensive backfield.

We aren’t done with the secondary just yet.  The best transfer of the defensive backfield is former West Virginia starting cornerback Dreshun Miller, a graduate 5th year player.  He started multiple games inside Big 12 play as well as having an excellent career at Eastern Arizona Junior College.

Staying on the defensive side, Auburn adds Kansas defensive end Marcus Harris.  Harris started multiple games for the Jayhawks last year and in 8 games, he had 7 ½ tackles for loss.  

Now, on the offensive side of the ball, there are a lot of specialized calculations to make because Auburn picked up a quarterback with starting experience in the SEC.  T.J. Finley comes to the Plains from LSU, where he started after Myles Brennan was lost for the year.  However, Auburn still has two-year regular Bo Nix as their expected starter just before August practices commence.  There should be a heated race for the starting job in the Bobo offense, but Nix will most likely be taking the snaps when Auburn hosts Akron on September 4.  Finley’s contribution might be limited, but on the other hand, if he wins the battle to start, he might be the most significant addition to the team.  It leaves us having to consider many possibilities before arriving at a score for Finley.

Redshirt freshman Jordan Ingram returns to the state where he was a star running back in high school after not seeing action at Central Michigan last year.  Ingram is not expected to see a great deal of action with Auburn’s top two running backs returning, but he’s talented enough to make a positive contribution.

Finally, there is journeyman wide receiver Demetris Robertson.  He’s the most difficult player in the entire Portal to grade.  Starting from the beginning, Robertson was a 5-star recruit and the top receiver in his recruiting class when he committed to Alabama as a highschool senior.  He ended up signing with California and shredded the Pac-12 as a true freshman.  He suffered an injury as a sophomore and played in just two games.  He then transferred to Georgia, where he was somewhat of a disappointment the last two seasons.  He was expected to be a fourth receiver for the Bulldogs before transferring to Auburn two weeks ago.  There’s another big issue though; he’s facing multiple felony charges, which may be why he entered the Portal near the deadline, because University of Georgia rules may have forced his ineligibility.  If Robertson can play a full season for Auburn, he will contribute to the Bobo offense.  But, he may never get a chance to play a game!  That’s a large subset of possibilities to calculate into the preseason equation.

All told, the incoming players on Auburn’s Transfer Portal list sum to 258 basis points with the defensive backfield bonus included.  Factor in the loss of 177 basis points from the players transferring out, and you get a surplus of 81 basis points improvement through the transfer portal.  Using our talent algorithm, Auburn expects to gain 4.1 power rating points in this area. 

For example number two, let’s inspect Oklahoma without delving into all the plot twists we showed you with Auburn.

Oklahoma lost seven players that will negatively affect their talent score by enough points to matter.  Additionally, at two positions, they lost multiple players to the Portal.  Safety Brendan Radley-Hiles had 115 career tackles in his time in Norman, while hybrid safety/linebacker Robert Barnes took four years of experience to Colorado.  Wide Receiver Jalin Conyers did not play as a freshman but he has NFL potential at Wide Receiver or Tight End and might eventually cost Oklahoma more down the road than they will in September of this year.  Losing wide receiver Charleston Rambo will hurt the Sooners in week one. Not affecting Oklahoma at all for 2021 is former tight end Grant Calcaterra, who retired from football at the end of 2019 after multiple concussions, but he un-retired and transferred to Auburn before the coaching change saw him transfer again to SMU.

The Sooners lost a 4-star tackle to Louisiana-Monroe in Stacey Wilkins.  Wilkins has not played for the Sooners, and his loss will be felt down the road, but it will be just the minimum to matter in 2021.  

Finally, there is quarterback Tanner Mordecai.  The fourth year sophomore was going to be a spectator watching All-American Spencer Rattler lead the Sooners, so Mordecai joined Calcaterra at SMU.  This has potential to affect Oklahoma should Rattler suffer an injury.  The #2 QB at a passing school is as important as the #2, #3, and #4 running backs at a running school.

The total loss in basis points for Oklahoma is 272, which is enough to affect the outcome of a game or two before we look at who the Sooners picked up.  The five players that transferred into Norman are the best quintet in the nation.  Former Tennessee running back Eric Gray and former LSU running back Kevontre Bradford, who has speed in the Chris Johnson CJ2K range, gives the Sooners a national top five running back corps when you add former starter Kennedy Brooks.  The Sooners’ running game combined with Rattler’s passing ability into a possible 45-points per game offense.

There is one more offensive stalwart to add to the mix, as former 5-star tackle recruit Wanya Morris started for two years at Tennessee and should step in and start at the all-important blind-side tackle.  Oklahoma’s potential to average 45 ppg may also come with consistency.

The defense added safety Key Lawrence, the third former Tennessee Vol to matriculate to Oklahoma.  Lawrence saw considerable action on defense and special teams as a true freshman last year.  He will do so for Oklahoma in 2021.

All told, the Sooners gain 200 basis points from incoming transfers, and combining it with the 272 lost, the net change is -72 basis points on transfers alone.  This equals about 3.9 points lost in power rating.

Some of the teams expected to profit the most off the Transfer portal in 2021 include: Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, Miami (Fla.), Penn State, SMU, South Carolina, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC,   Teams that lost considerable talent include: Clemson, Florida State, LSU, Memphis, Tennessee, and Texas.

This adjustment makes up just one part of a multiple part adjustment to the power ratings for each of the 130 FBS teams.  In the case of Clemson losing 245 basis points of talent, fear not for the Tigers.  They still have more than enough talent and added enough from past recruiting classes to make it back to the College Football Playoffs in 2021-2022.

March 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Friday, March 19, 2021

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
BaylorHartford22.0
WisconsinNorth Carolina0.3
VillanovaWinthrop8.1
PurdueNorth Texas7.4
Texas TechUtah St.2.3
ArkansasColgate8.4
FloridaVirginia Tech2.1
Ohio St.Oral Roberts16.1
IllinoisDrexel20.5
Loyola (Chi.)Georgia Tech2.7
TennesseeOregon St.7.6
Oklahoma St.Liberty8.2
San Diego St.Syracuse2.8
West VirginiaMorehead St.11.6
RutgersClemson1.9
HoustonCleveland St.17.9

February 17, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

February 17, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
RichmondVCU-0.1
Central FloridaSouth Florida2.2
PittsburghNC St.2.3
LouisvileSyracuse2.7
North CarolinaNortheastern13.5
Wake ForestDuke-6.8
Kansas St.Kansas-15.4
ButlerMarquette-0.6
Seton HallDePaul10.2
MarylandNebraska8.9
IndianaMinnesota1.9
Loyola (Chi.)Valparaiso20.7
New MexicoWyoming-2.7
Boise St.Utah St.0.1
USCArizona St.10.7
VanderbiltKentucky-3.8
TennesseeSouth Carolina8.6

December 2, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL For Week 13: December 6-8, 2020

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
ChicagoDetroit7.06.87.4
MiamiCincinnati10.811.411.0
HoustonIndianapolis-1.3-1.5-1.1
MinnesotaJacksonville9.39.39.5
N.Y. JetsLas Vegas-11.1-10.7-11.9
AtlantaNew Orleans-1.2-1.5-1.2
TennesseeCleveland4.84.94.9
SeattleN.Y. Giants10.59.910.0
ArizonaLA Rams-0.7-0.9-1.3
Green BayPhiladelphia10.510.611.6
LA ChargersNew England0.50.70.8
Kansas CityDenver15.215.815.8
San FranciscoBuffalo3.12.12.9
PittsburghWashington14.214.715.2
BaltimoreDallas16.316.116.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
ChicagoDetroit43.5
MiamiCincinnati48.5
HoustonIndianapolis50
MinnesotaJacksonville46.5
N.Y. JetsLas Vegas46
AtlantaNew Orleans54
TennesseeCleveland51.5
SeattleN.Y. Giants52
ArizonaLA Rams53
Green BayPhiladelphia48
LA ChargersNew England44
Kansas CityDenver44.5
San FranciscoBuffalo45.5
PittsburghWashington40
BaltimoreDallas49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Buffalo102.3102.9102.5102.620.58-3
Miami100.7101.7101.1101.226.57-4
New England99.098.698.498.719.55-6
N. Y. Jets87.788.387.087.7190-11

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore106.9106.7106.8106.8236-5
Cincinnati91.591.891.691.6222-8-1
Cleveland98.898.899.198.9248-3
Pittsburgh107.7108.3108.5108.218.511-0

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Houston100.4100.1100.3100.3264-7
Indianapolis103.2103.1103.0103.1247-4
Jacksonville91.391.191.291.2211-10
Tennessee102.1102.2102.5102.327.58-3

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Denver97.297.097.097.1184-7
Kansas City110.4110.8110.8110.726.510-1
Las Vegas101.3101.5101.4101.4276-5
LA Chargers97.497.497.297.324.53-8

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas92.192.191.691.9263-8
N.Y. Giants94.995.795.595.422.54-7
Philadelphia96.796.696.196.4233-7-1
Washington95.095.194.895.021.54-7

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Chicago99.498.899.199.1175-6
Detroit93.993.593.293.526.54-7
Green Bay105.7105.7106.2105.9258-3
Minnesota99.198.999.299.025.55-6

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Atlanta103.1102.4103.0102.827.54-7
Carolina99.298.899.499.226.54-8
New Orleans105.8105.4105.7105.626.59-2
Tampa Bay105.3105.1105.5105.331.57-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Arizona102.5102.3102.3102.4296-5
LA Rams103.7103.7104.1103.8247-4
San Francisco102.9102.5102.9102.8255-6
Seattle102.9103.1103.0103.029.58-3

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1Pittsburgh
2Kansas City
3Tennessee
4Buffalo
5Miami
6Indianapolis
7Cleveland

NFC Seeding
1Green Bay
2Seattle
3New Orleans
4Washington
5Los Angeles
6Tampa Bay
7Minnesota

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Cleveland
Indianapolis over Tennessee
Buffalo over Miami
Minnesota over Seattle
Tampa Bay over New Orleans
Los Angeles over Washington

Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
Kansas City over Buffalo
Green Bay over Minnesota
Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Green Bay over Los Angeles

Super Bowl
Kansas City over Green Bay

October 19, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL Football For Week 7: October 22-26, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:22 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants6.25.55.8
ArizonaSeattle-0.9-1.6-1.0
AtlantaDetroit5.24.14.9
CincinnatiCleveland-3.4-3.0-3.6
DenverKansas City-7.2-7.9-7.5
HoustonGreen Bay-2.0-2.3-2.2
LA ChargersJacksonville9.710.210.9
Las VegasTampa Bay-3.5-3.0-3.9
N.Y. JetsBuffalo-10.9-10.7-12.1
New EnglandSan Francisco-0.5-0.1-0.7
New OrleansCarolina7.67.87.4
TennesseePittsburgh-1.3-1.8-1.4
WashingtonDallas-0.9-0.9-0.7
LA RamsChicago3.43.73.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants48
ArizonaSeattle57
AtlantaDetroit55.5
CincinnatiCleveland49
DenverKansas City41
HoustonGreen Bay50
LA ChargersJacksonville41.5
Las VegasTampa Bay57.5
N.Y. JetsBuffalo37
New EnglandSan Francisco44.5
New OrleansCarolina54.5
TennesseePittsburgh45
WashingtonDallas48
LA RamsChicago42

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England100.6100.3100.4100.419.52-3
Buffalo100.2100.8100.1100.418.54-2
Miami99.8100.999.7100.1273-3
N. Y. Jets87.488.186.087.218.50-6

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore109.6109.6110.0109.725.55-1
Pittsburgh104.6105.2105.1105.0195-0
Cleveland99.299.399.799.4254-2
Cincinnati94.494.894.694.6241-4-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.3102.2102.1102.2224-2
Tennessee101.8101.9102.2102.0265-0
Houston100.199.7100.1100.026.51-5
Jacksonville90.990.590.490.6211-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City108.5109.0109.0108.8255-1
Las Vegas100.5100.8100.4100.6263-2
Denver99.399.199.599.3162-3
LA Chargers98.198.298.898.420.51-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Philadelphia97.797.697.397.524.51-4-1
Dallas95.495.394.795.1272-4
N.Y. Giants93.093.592.993.223.51-5
Washington92.592.492.092.3211-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay103.6103.5103.9103.723.54-1
Chicago101.4101.1101.8101.4175-1
Minnesota98.097.797.997.825.51-5
Detroit96.796.896.796.726.52-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Tampa Bay106.5106.3106.7106.531.54-2
New Orleans105.3104.8105.0105.028.53-2
Carolina99.799.099.699.5263-3
Atlanta99.998.999.599.4291-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Seattle104.8105.3105.0105.1295-0
LA Rams102.8102.7103.2102.9254-2
San Francisco103.0102.5103.1102.9253-3
Arizona102.5102.2102.6102.4284-2

October 13, 2020

PiRate Ratings–NFL Football For Week 6: October 18-19, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:03 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
CarolinaChicago1.21.11.2
JacksonvilleDetroit-1.4-1.9-1.7
MinnesotaAtlanta3.34.44.1
TennesseeHouston3.84.74.8
N.Y. GiantsWashington1.41.91.8
PittsburghCleveland2.93.52.6
PhiladelphiaBaltimore-11.7-12.0-13.1
IndianapolisCincinnati9.89.59.8
Tampa BayGreen Bay0.0-0.2-0.3
San FranciscoLA Rams1.50.50.5
MiamiN.Y. Jets11.011.212.1
New EnglandDenver5.55.65.5
DallasArizona0.00.4-0.4
BuffaloKansas City-6.2-5.9-6.4

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

HomeVisitorTotal
CarolinaChicago43
JacksonvilleDetroit47.5
MinnesotaAtlanta53.5
TennesseeHouston49.5
N.Y. GiantsWashington44.5
PittsburghCleveland44
PhiladelphiaBaltimore49
IndianapolisCincinnati44.5
Tampa BayGreen Bay56
San FranciscoLA Rams51
MiamiN.Y. Jets47
New EnglandDenver36.5
DallasArizona56
BuffaloKansas City43.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New England101.7101.5101.7101.6202-2
Buffalo100.5101.2100.6100.818.54-1
Miami98.599.598.398.827.52-3
N. Y. Jets89.089.887.788.819.50-5

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Baltimore110.0110.1110.7110.3254-1
Pittsburgh102.3102.9102.6102.6194-0
Cleveland100.8100.9101.5101.1254-1
Cincinnati94.294.594.294.3231-3-1

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Indianapolis102.5102.5102.5102.521.53-2
Tennessee102.1102.4102.8102.424.54-0
Houston99.899.299.599.5251-4
Jacksonville92.592.192.192.2211-4

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Kansas City108.2108.6108.5108.4254-1
Las Vegas100.2100.5100.1100.3263-2
Denver98.297.998.298.116.51-3
LA Chargers97.897.998.598.120.51-4

N F C
EastPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Dallas98.598.598.098.3282-3
Philadelphia97.397.196.697.0241-3-1
N.Y. Giants93.093.592.993.223.50-5
Washington92.792.692.292.5211-4

NorthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Green Bay106.0106.0106.5106.2244-0
Chicago100.8100.4101.0100.7174-1
Minnesota100.099.9100.2100.0251-4
Detroit95.495.595.395.426.51-3

SouthPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
New Orleans105.0104.5104.7104.728.53-2
Tampa Bay104.1103.8104.1104.0323-2
Carolina100.099.4100.199.9263-2
Atlanta98.297.097.597.628.50-5

WestPiRateMeanBiasAvgTotalsW-L
Seattle104.5105.0104.7104.8295-0
LA Rams103.2103.3103.9103.525.54-1
San Francisco102.6101.9102.4102.325.52-3
Arizona100.5100.1100.4100.3283-2

October 6, 2020

This Week’s College Football Schedule

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:37 am
Thursday, October 8
Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
7:30 PMESPNHoustonTulaneCougars finally get to play!

Friday, October 9
Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
7:00 PMESPNGeorgia TechLouisvilleTurnovers wreck Tech–Lots of yards/pt. for both teams

Saturday, October 10
Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
12:00 PMABCNorth CarolinaVirginia TechShould be decent defensive battle
12:00 PMFoxTexasOklahomaRed River Rivalry lacks the luster
12:00 PMESPNTexas A&MFloridaJimbo Fisher is on a hot seat
12:00 PMESPN2LouisianaCoastal CarolinaSneaky good game worth watching
12:00 PMESPNULibertyUL-MonroeBlowout potential for LU
12:00 PMSECNVanderbiltSouth CarolinaMust win for Muschamp or must look for job
12:00 PMACCNVirginiaNorth Carolina St.Should be competitive and fun game
12:30 PMFSNSyracuseDukeNot much unless you are a DU or SU fan
3:30 PMABCIowa St.Texas TechExpect a lot of points in this fun game
3:30 PMCBSGeorgiaTennesseeTwo ranked teams should make for great game
3:30 PMESPN2BYUUTSACougars leader in the pack for top G5 team
3:30 PMESPN3Arkansas St.Central ArkansasShould be close game with FCS team having a shot
3:30 PMESPN3TroyTexas St.If you like SBC games, this one will be good
4:00 PMFoxTCUKansas St.Should be low-scoring defensive game
4:00 PMESPNUFlorida Int’l.Middle TennesseeBoth teams looking for 1st win
4:00 PMSECNAuburnArkansasAn Auburn loss puts Gus in hot water
4:00 PMACCNBoston CollegePittsburghShould be rather interesting to watch
4:00 PMStadiumSouthern Miss.Florida AtlanticFAU road win makes them CUSA Contender
6:00 PMESPNOle MissAlabamaKiffin vs. Saban–need we say more?
6:00 PMCBSSNNavyTempleOwls playing game 1
7:30 PMABCClemsonMiami (Fla.)Must watch game of the week
7:30 PMNBCNotre DameFlorida St.Opposite of the game above–little watchability
7:30 PMESPN2Louisiana TechUTEPHigh scoring but potential blowout
7:30 PMSECNKentuckyMississippi St.400 rushing yards vs. 400 passing yards
7:30 PMStadiumWestern KentuckyMarshallPossible CUSA Championship in the balance
8:00 PMESPNUNorth TexasCharlotteSeth Littrell offense fun to watch–defense not so much
9:00 PMESPNLSUMissouriMediocre matchup–stick with ABC game
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