The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 22, 2020

The Greatest NCAA Tournament That Never Was–Round Three Sunday

Welcome back to the See BS Studio.  I’m  Bernie Johnson along with my colleagues Charles Ruffley, Clark Post, and Kenny Jones, and we’re ready to bring you the final eight games of the Round of 32.  By the end of the day, the Sweet 16 will be set.

Let’s go out to the Midwest Region, where the number one-seed UCLA Bruins of 1968 will battle the eight-seed 1962 Cincinnati Bearcats.  It should be a great matchup inside between two great centers.  So, take it away Brad Messler, Steve Blabbin, and Evan Dryburn.

 

MIDWEST REGION

 

Balanced Bruin Offense With 5 In Double Figures–UCLA Runs Away From Bearcats

 

1 UCLA 1968

75

8 Cincinnati 1962

59

After a close first half, in which the Bearcats never trailed by more than five points, UCLA pulled away with a 14-3 run in the second half and stayed 12 points or more ahead the rest of the way.

Two free throws by Tom Thacker and a three-pointer by Tony Yates gave Cincinnati their only lead of the day at 27-26 late in the first half, but UCLA countered with a three-pointer by Lynn Shackleford and an offensive putback by Kareem Abdul Jabbar to give the Bruins the lead for good.

 

Boxscore

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

C

6

11

0

0

4

6

4

8

12

2

0

4

3

2

16

Mike Lynn

F

4

7

0

0

2

2

2

7

9

1

1

0

0

3

10

Lynn Shackleford

F

6

13

2

4

3

4

1

4

5

3

2

0

1

1

17

Lucius Allen

G

5

12

1

3

2

4

0

2

2

2

4

0

5

3

13

Mike Warren

G

4

10

2

5

4

5

0

1

1

6

3

0

3

2

14

Jim Nielsen

0

1

0

0

1

2

2

3

5

0

0

1

1

3

1

Kenny Heitz

1

2

0

1

0

0

0

1

1

1

2

0

2

1

2

Bill Sweek

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

0

1

2

2

Team

3

Totals

27

57

5

13

16

23

9

28

40

15

12

5

16

17

75

 

 

 

Cincinnati

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Paul Hogue

C

3

7

0

0

1

2

1

8

9

2

0

1

3

4

7

George Wilson

F

1

4

0

0

0

0

1

4

5

1

0

0

1

4

2

Ron Bonham

F

5

14

0

0

3

5

2

3

5

4

1

0

3

2

13

Tom Thacker

G

4

12

2

8

4

5

1

4

5

2

3

0

5

3

14

Tony Yates

G

5

10

3

6

3

4

0

1

1

3

1

0

6

3

16

Tom Sizer

2

6

2

6

1

2

1

3

4

0

1

0

2

5

7

Team

3

Totals

20

53

7

20

12

18

6

23

32

12

6

1

20

21

59

Player of the Game

Mike Warren

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

UCLA

34

41

75

Cincinnati

31

28

59

 

 

Blue Devils Come From Behind With Big Finish To Knock Off Rival Tar Heels

 

4 Duke 2015

76

5 North Carolina 2017

66

 

After a close first half, North Carolina pulled ahead by 11 points at 49-38 after Joel Berry and Luke May hit back to back three pointers, and then a steal by May that led to a basket by Justin Jackson, gave the Tar Heels their biggest lead.  Duke then began mounting a steady comeback, cutting the lead to eight at 52-44, to five at 56-51, and finally down to just two points at 62-60.  After the teams traded one made foul shot to make it 63-61 Carolina, Matt Jones tied the game at 63-63, and then Tyus Jones drove into the lane to hit a basket and draw a foul on Theo Pinson.  After Jones made the foul shot, Duke led 66-63.  The Tar Heels could manage just one three-point basket, while they sent the Blue Devils to the foul line.  Duke hit 7 of 8 at the charity stripe to salt the game away.

 

Boxscore

Duke

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Jahlil Okafor

C

6

12

0

0

0

1

2

5

7

1

0

0

1

4

12

Justise Winslow

F

4

11

1

5

2

3

1

4

5

2

2

2

1

3

11

Quinn Cook

F

4

10

1

4

0

0

1

6

7

3

0

0

3

1

9

Matt Jones

G

6

9

4

6

0

0

1

3

4

2

1

0

2

2

16

Tyus Jones

G

1

3

0

0

8

10

0

2

2

1

3

0

2

3

10

Grayson Allen

2

5

1

3

3

4

0

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

8

Amile Jefferson

2

4

0

0

2

2

1

2

3

3

1

2

0

2

6

Marshall Plumlee

2

5

0

0

0

0

2

1

3

0

0

0

1

2

4

Team

2

Totals

27

59

7

18

15

20

8

24

34

13

8

4

11

18

76

 

 

 

North Carolina

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Kennedy Meeks

C

1

3

0

0

3

4

1

6

7

2

1

2

4

2

5

Isaiah Hicks

F

2

5

0

0

1

2

3

6

9

1

0

2

2

1

5

Justin Jackson

F

6

15

2

7

3

5

2

4

6

3

0

0

1

2

17

Theo Pinson

G

1

3

0

1

2

2

1

1

2

4

1

0

3

5

4

Joel Berry

G

6

14

3

8

3

4

1

5

6

2

2

0

6

2

18

Tony Bradley

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

Nate Britt

0

1

0

1

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

0

1

2

0

Luke May

5

9

2

4

3

3

0

2

2

1

1

0

1

2

15

Seventh Woods

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

3

Totals

22

53

7

21

15

20

9

25

37

13

5

4

18

18

66

Player of the Game

Matt Jones

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Duke

34

42

76

N. Carolina

36

30

66

 

 

Indiana Solves The Arkansas Press And Dominates On The Glass

 

Indiana looked to be vulnerable in the first half as Arkansas forced nine turnovers with their full court press, and the Razorbacks led by as much as 10 points.  In the second half, The Hoosiers did not turn the ball over in the backcourt one time and committed just five frontcourt turnovers.  Meanwhile, Indiana outrebounded Arkansas in the second half 24-9 to win going away.  Scott May scored 19 of his game high 28 points in the final half.

 

3 Indiana 1976

82

6 Arkansas 1994

71

 

Boxscore

Indiana

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Kent Benson

C

9

14

0

0

2

4

4

5

9

2

0

2

2

3

20

Scott May

F

9

16

3

5

7

8

2

6

8

5

1

0

3

1

28

Tom Abernathy

F

4

8

3

6

3

4

1

4

5

1

0

1

1

3

14

Bobby Wilkerson

G

2

6

0

2

1

2

2

7

9

3

3

2

4

4

5

Quinn Buckner

G

2

5

0

1

2

4

1

4

5

4

2

0

2

2

6

Wayne Radford

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

1

0

0

1

3

2

Jim Wisman

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

0

1

0

Rich Valavicius

2

3

1

1

2

3

0

1

1

1

0

1

1

1

7

Team

4

Totals

29

56

7

16

17

25

10

30

44

19

6

6

14

18

82

 

 

 

Arkansas

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Dwight Stewart

C

1

4

0

2

1

2

2

2

4

2

0

0

1

5

3

Corliss Williamson

F

5

9

0

0

1

2

1

5

6

3

1

0

0

3

11

Ken Biley

F

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

Scotty Thurman

G

6

15

4

11

5

6

2

1

3

2

1

0

3

5

21

Corey Beck

G

2

6

0

1

0

0

0

2

2

4

3

0

2

2

4

Darnell Robinson

4

9

0

0

0

2

2

3

5

0

0

0

1

2

8

Clint McDaniel

2

7

1

4

3

4

0

3

3

0

0

0

1

3

8

Lee Wilson

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

1

2

Divar Rimac

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

Alex Dillard

3

6

3

6

3

4

0

0

0

2

1

0

1

2

12

Ray Biggers

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Team

4

Totals

25

61

8

24

13

20

7

19

30

13

6

0

9

24

71

Player of the Game

Scott May

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Indiana

37

45

82

Arkansas

42

29

71

 

 

15-seeded Cougars Advance To Sweet 16 In Exciting Game

 

15 Houston 1968

108

10 UCLA 1975

101

In what turned out to be the most exciting game of the day, Houston and UCLA staged one of the finest offensive performances in Simulated NCAA Tournament History by combining for 209 points.

The pace of the game was fast from the onset, as the teams were tied 25-25 just eight minutes into the game.  Elvin Hayes was virtually unstoppable all day, and a 12-point scoring burst in the final six minutes of the opening half gave the Cougars a six-point halftime lead.

The teams traded the lead for most of the second half with UCLA’s last lead coming at the six minute mark at 87-86.  Houston enjoyed a quick 10-3 run to make it 96-90, and the Bruins could not overcome the run.

 

Boxscore

Houston

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Elvin Hayes

C

15

25

0

0

9

13

8

14

22

2

0

5

4

3

39

Ken Spain

F

7

15

0

0

4

7

2

10

12

1

2

2

2

3

18

Theodis Lee

F

4

9

1

3

4

6

1

5

6

3

1

1

1

5

13

Don Chaney

G

7

13

4

8

5

6

1

4

5

7

3

0

3

4

23

George Reynolds

G

4

12

2

6

2

3

0

1

1

5

1

0

5

4

12

Tom Gribben

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

2

3

0

Larry Cooper

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

0

1

0

1

2

0

Carlos Bell

1

3

0

0

1

2

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

3

3

Vern Lewis

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

1

1

0

Team

3

Totals

38

77

7

17

25

37

13

38

54

20

8

8

19

28

108

 

 

 

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Richard Washington

C

5

11

0

0

3

4

3

6

9

0

0

1

2

5

13

Dave Meyers

F

8

14

0

0

7

10

3

8

11

1

0

1

1

4

23

Marques Johnson

F

10

22

2

6

4

6

2

7

9

3

2

1

4

3

26

Pete Trgovich

G

7

15

3

8

3

4

0

4

4

4

3

0

2

4

20

Andre McCarter

G

1

6

1

4

2

3

0

1

1

6

1

0

5

5

5

Ralph Drollinger

3

7

0

0

1

2

2

3

5

1

0

2

1

3

7

Raymond Townsend

2

5

2

4

1

2

0

1

1

3

1

0

1

5

7

Jim Spillane

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4

0

Wilbert Olinde

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

Team

5

Totals

36

80

8

22

21

31

10

30

45

18

7

5

16

35

101

Player of the Game

Elvin Hayes

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Houston

61

47

108

UCLA

55

46

101

 

 

WEST REGION

 

Overall Top Seed Romps Again

 

1 UCLA 1972

94

8 Connecticut 2004

61

 

The top seed in the tournament looked infallible for most of the game, as the Bruins began the game with a 16-1 lead before the Huskies could hit their first basket.  UCLA began to empty the bench in the first half once the lead swelled past 30 points, which allowed UConn to make its only run of the day cutting a 42-12 lead to 44-19 at the half.

After a 20-10 run to start the second half, the Bruins led by 35 points, when they started to remove the starters.  Until Emeka Okafor hit an old-fasioned three-pointer on the final possession, UCLA backup center Swen Nater had matched him point for point.  Nater played just 12 minutes to Okafor’s 33.

Boxscore

UCLA

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Bill Walton

C

7

11

0

0

3

5

5

9

14

4

2

4

2

3

17

Jamaal Wilkes

F

6

9

2

3

4

4

1

6

7

1

1

1

1

3

18

Larry Farmer

F

5

7

2

3

1

2

2

5

7

1

3

1

1

2

13

Greg Lee

G

3

7

1

3

3

4

0

3

3

2

1

0

3

3

10

Henry Bibby

G

3

8

2

5

5

6

0

2

2

5

2

0

2

2

13

Tommy Curtis

2

5

1

3

1

2

0

1

1

3

1

0

2

1

6

Larry Hollyfield

2

6

1

3

0

0

1

1

2

1

1

0

1

2

5

Swen Nater

3

5

0

0

2

3

2

3

5

0

0

1

0

2

8

Vince Carson

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

0

0

0

1

2

Andy Hill

0

1

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Jon Chapman

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gary Franklin

1

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

Team

3

Totals

33

64

9

21

19

26

11

32

46

18

11

7

13

21

94

 

 

 

Connecticut

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Emeka Okafor

C

4

8

0

0

3

6

2

7

9

1

0

2

1

4

11

Josh Boone

F

3

7

0

0

0

2

2

4

6

0

1

0

3

2

6

Rashad Anderson

F

4

11

3

9

3

4

1

5

6

2

2

0

2

4

14

Ben Gordon

G

5

16

3

12

4

4

0

2

2

3

1

0

5

3

17

Taliek Brown

G

3

8

0

0

2

5

0

2

2

3

1

0

3

4

8

Denham Brown

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

1

2

0

Hilton Armstrong

1

2

0

0

1

2

1

2

3

1

0

0

3

3

3

Charlie Villanueva

1

4

0

1

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

0

0

1

2

Shamon Tooles

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

Team

2

Totals

21

57

6

22

13

23

7

24

33

10

5

2

18

24

61

Player of the Game

Bill Walton

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

UCLA

44

50

94

UConn

19

42

61

 

 

Smaller, Quicker Miners Steal Way To Victory

 

12 Texas Western 1966

71

13 Louisville 1986

59

Louisville, a team known for an excellent full court press through the years, fell victim to the man to man press by Texas Western.  The Miners stole the ball 16 times in the game, while forcing 25 Cardinal Turnovers.

After an early 8-5 Louisville lead, back to back steals by Bobby Joe Hill led to a basket and two foul shots to give the Miners their first lead at 9-8.

Later in the half, after Louisville recovered to take a 24-22 lead, steals by Willie Worsley and Orsten Artis led to easy baskets to put TW up 26-24.  A missed three-point attempt by Milt Wagner, led to a fast break basket for the Miners when Harry Flournoy grabbed the rebound and found Artis, who then passed to Willie Cager for the layup.  Up 28-24, The Miners led the rest of the way.

Louisville cut the lead from eight to three with eight minutes to play, but a 8-0 run put the game away.

 

Boxscore

Texas Western

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Nevil Shed

C

3

6

0

0

2

3

4

4

8

0

0

1

1

2

8

David Lattin

F

4

11

0

0

2

3

2

3

5

2

2

0

3

2

10

Harry Flournoy

F

4

10

0

0

3

5

4

9

13

1

0

2

2

1

11

Orsten Artis

G

3

9

2

5

3

4

0

2

2

4

4

0

4

3

11

Bobby Joe Hill

G

4

11

2

6

3

4

0

1

1

3

4

0

3

2

13

Willie Cager

4

7

2

3

4

5

2

3

5

2

3

1

2

2

14

Willie Worsley

1

4

1

2

1

2

0

0

0

2

3

0

2

1

4

Team

3

Totals

23

58

7

16

18

26

12

22

37

14

16

4

17

13

71

 

 

 

Louisville

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Pervis Ellison

C

6

13

0

0

2

4

2

4

6

0

0

2

4

4

14

Billy Thompson

F

5

11

0

0

0

0

1

5

6

3

1

0

2

2

10

Herbert Crook

F

3

8

0

2

2

3

1

3

4

1

1

1

5

5

8

Jeff Hall

G

3

6

2

4

0

0

0

1

1

2

0

0

3

3

8

Milt Wagner

G

3

7

1

3

4

5

0

2

2

4

2

0

5

2

11

Tony Kimbro

2

4

1

2

1

2

1

2

3

2

1

0

3

4

6

Kevin Walls

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8

8

0

0

0

1

1

0

Mark McSwain

1

2

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

0

0

0

2

2

2

Team

2

Totals

23

51

4

11

9

14

6

27

35

12

5

3

25

23

59

Player of the Game

Harry Flournoy

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

Final

Texas Western

33

38

71

Louisville

26

33

59

 

 

Siegfried’s Three Sinks Marquette

 

3 Ohio St. 1960

72

11 Marquette 1977

70

 

Larry Siegfried connected on a three-point shot in Ohio State’s final possession to give the Buckeyes their only lead in the second half, and then a last-gasp shot by Bernard Toone missed and was rebounded by Joe Roberts to send Ohio State to the Sweet 16.

Marquette was able to slow the pace down, using up 24 to 28 seconds on the shot clock per possession and limiting Ohio State’s offensive rebounding strength.  With Bo Ellis scoring 11 of his 13 points in the first half, the Warriors led by a bucket at the break.

Butch Lee kept Marquette’s offense moving in the second half, as the Warriors kept the lead between four and seven points until the three minute mark.

After a 6-6 foul shooting mark in the first half, Marquette players missed several crucial foul shots down the stretch, as the Warriors could only hit 7 of 12 free tosses.  Ohio State rebounded the ball on all the missed foul shots, and they scored on five consecutive possessions to cut a 68-61 lead to 70-69.  After a Jim Boylan turnover, Ohio State tried to get the ball inside to Jerry Lucas or in the mid post to John Havlicek, but Marquette’s zone defense plugged the middle, forcing Siegfried to take the three-pointer as the shot clock expired.

 

Boxscore

Ohio St.

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Jerry Lucas

C

9

14

0

1

2

2

3

7

10

2

0

1

2

3

20

Joe Roberts

F

3

9

0

0

0

0

2

5

7

1

0

0

1

4

6

John Havlicek

F

6

12

2

4

4

5

2

6

8

3

2

0

1

2

18

Larry Siegfried

G

5

11

3

6

5

8

1

4

5

4

1

0

3

2

18

Mel Nowell

G

2

6

1

3

3

4

0

1

1

3

1

0

5

3

8

Dick Furry

1

3

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

1

0

0

2

2

2

Team

3

Totals

26

55

6

14

14

19

9

25

37

14

4

1

14

16

72

 

 

 

Marquette

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Jerome Whitehead

C

5

12

0

0

1

2

3

4

7

1

0

1

2

4

11

Bo Ellis

F

5

11

0

0

3

5

1

8

9

2

2

2

1

3

13

Bill Neary

F

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

0

0

0

0

2

2

Butch Lee

G

6

13

4

10

5

6

0

1

1

2

1

0

4

3

21

Jim Boylan

G

2

6

1

3

2

2

0

2

2

5

2

0

2

2

7

Bernard Toone

4

7

0

0

2

3

2

5

7

0

0

0

2

2

10

Gary Rosenberger

2

3

2

3

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

1

6

Team

2

Totals

25

55

7

16

13

18

6

22

30

11

5

3

12

17

70

Player of the Game

Larry Siegfried

 

 

Tar Heels Win Overtime Thriller

 

10 North Carolina 1982

86

OT

2 Kansas 2008

78

 

Darnell Jackson missed the front end of a 1 and 1 foul opportunity, and James Worthy’s field goal tied the game up at in the final seconds of regulation to force overtime.  In overtime, the Carolina Trio of Worthy, Sam Perkins, and Michael Jordan took the game over to give the Tar Heels a ticket to the Sweet 16.

Reserve forward Chris Brust came off the bench and hit two crucial baskets when Kansas had begun to stretch the lead.  Brust’s two baskets sandwiched one by Matt Doherty in a 6-1 Tar Heel mini-run that cut the KU lead to two points.  Moments later, Perkins fouled Jackson, and Jackson missed the foul shot that allowed Carolina force overtime.

Boxscore

North Carolina

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Sam Perkins

C

8

15

0

0

4

6

3

6

9

0

0

2

2

3

20

James Worthy

F

8

13

0

0

7

8

3

8

11

2

0

2

2

2

23

Matt Doherty

F

2

5

2

4

2

2

0

2

2

1

1

0

1

3

8

Michael Jordan

G

4

9

2

5

8

9

2

5

7

4

1

1

1

2

18

Jimmy Black

G

1

4

1

4

2

3

0

2

2

5

2

0

3

3

5

Jim Braddock

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

0

0

1

2

0

Chris Brust

2

3

0

0

2

4

1

3

4

0

0

0

2

3

6

Buzz Peterson

1

2

1

2

3

4

0

1

1

2

1

0

1

2

6

Team

3

Totals

26

51

6

15

28

36

9

28

40

15

5

5

13

20

86

Kansas

Start

FG

FGA

3P

3PA

FT

FTA

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

PF

PTS

Darnell Jackson

C

8

14

0

0

3

5

3

4

7

2

0

1

2

4

19

Darrell Arthur

F

5

7

0

0

2

3

1

6

7

1

0

0

1

4

12

Brandon Rush

F

1

4

1

4

2

2

3

3

6

3

1

0

3

5

5

Russell Robinson

G

5

12

3

8

3

4

0

2

2

4

2

0

2

3

16

Mario Chalmers

G

5

15

3

11

5

6

0

1

1

2

1

0

1

4

18

Sherron Collins

2

6

1

4

1

2

1

4

5

1

0

0

1

5

6

Sasha Kaun

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

4

2

Rodrick Stewart

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

Cole Aldrich

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

Team

2

Totals

27

61

8

27

16

22

8

21

31

13

4

1

10

33

78

Player of the Game

James Worthy

 

Score By Halves

Team

1

2

OT

Final

North Carolina

33

37

16

86

Kansas

36

34

8

78

 

The Sweet 16

 

East Region–Thursday

 

1974 North Carolina St. vs. 1978 Kentucky

2019 Virginia vs. 1987 Indiana

South Region–Thursday

 

1970 UCLA vs. 1964 UCLA

2018 Villanova vs. 1992 Duke

 

Midwest Region–Friday

 

1968 UCLA vs. 2015 Duke

1976 Indiana vs. 1968 Houston

 

West Region–Friday

 

1972 UCLA vs. 1966 Texas Western

1960 Ohio St. vs. 1982 North Carolina

 

 

 

 

 

March 6, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 6, 2020

Date

3/6/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Baylor

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Florida St.

Villanova

Seton Hall

3

Duke

Maryland

Louisville

Michigan St.

4

Kentucky

Creighton

Oregon

Ohio St.

5

Penn St.

Auburn

Iowa

Butler

6

Wisconsin

BYU

Colorado

Michigan

7

West Virginia

Arizona

Illinois

Marquette

8

Houston

Virginia

Saint Mary’s

LSU

9

USC

Florida

Arizona St.

Providence

10

Texas Tech

Indiana

Oklahoma

Xavier

11

Rutgers

Stanford

E. Tennessee St.

Texas

UCLA

12

Yale

S. F. Austin

Liberty

Cincinnati

Utah St.

13

Vermont

Akron

North Texas

Loyola (Chi.)

14

New Mexico St.

Hofstra

Belmont

Colgate

15

Little Rock

Wright St.

UC-Irvine

S. Dakota St.

16

Montana

Radford

Prairie View

Siena

St. Francis (PA)

UNC Central

The Bubble

 

Last 4 IN: Texas, UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah St.

First 4 Out: North Carolina St., Wichita St., Richmond, Arkansas

Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Memphis, Purdue, Saint Louis

 

Needing a miracle but probably headed to the NIT: Northern Iowa, which lost by 21 to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Quarterfinal Round today.

March 2, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 2, 2020

Date

3/2/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Baylor

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

Seton Hall

3

Duke

Villanova

Louisville

Kentucky

4

Creighton

Oregon

Michigan St.

Penn St.

5

Auburn

Iowa

Ohio St.

Colorado

6

Butler

Wisconsin

BYU

West Virginia

7

Michigan

Arizona

Marquette

Illinois

8

Houston

LSU

Virginia

Texas Tech

9

Saint Mary’s

Florida

Arizona St.

Xavier

10

USC

Indiana

Oklahoma

Rutgers

11

Providence

Stanford

East Tennessee

Northern Iowa

12

Yale

Liberty

Wichita St.

Utah St.

Cincinnati

Rhode Island

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Hofstra

Belmont

Colgate

15

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Wright St.

South Dakota St.

16

Montana

Radford

Siena

Prairie View

St. Francis (PA)

N.C. A&T

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

UCLA

70

Mississippi St.

71

North Carolina St.

72

Richmond

73

Memphis

74

Texas

75

Arkansas

76

Alabama

 

Notes

(1.)  The last two at-large teams in the field, Cincinnati and Rhode Island, rate less than one-half point ahead of the first team out of the field, UCLA, and less then one point ahead of the next team out, Mississippi St.

(2.) Stephen F. Austin and Vermont actually rank ahead of the last two in and first two out, but we cannot put four mid-major teams in the 12-seed spot, and make the play-in games a battle of 13-seeds.

(3.) No political alterations have been made in this bracketology release.  These 68 + 8 teams listed here are 100% mechanically derived using our unique statistical criteria.  Had we applied some political bend to this report, some of the teams would have been moved on their seed lines, and UCLA would be moved into the field ahead of Rhode Island, because we believe the Selection Committee would be forced to take the Pac-12’s conference champion (assuming UCLA does win the Pac-12)

 

Coming Later Today:  Conference Tournament action begins tomorrow evening.  We will release the schedules and bracketing for the conference tournaments that are set to begin in the next few days.

 

 

 

February 28, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 28, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:12 am

Date

2/28/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Baylor

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

Duke

3

Creighton

Villanova

Seton Hall

Kentucky

4

Oregon

Louisville

Penn St.

Auburn

5

Michigan St.

Ohio St.

Colorado

Iowa

6

Michigan

West Virginia

Butler

BYU

7

Wisconsin

Arizona

Marquette

Illinois

8

LSU

Houston

Arizona St.

Florida

9

Texas Tech

Saint Mary’s

Indiana

Virginia

10

Xavier

Utah St.

Oklahoma

USC

11

Rhode Island

Wichita St.

East Tennessee St.

Northern Iowa

12

Liberty

Stephen F. Austin

Rutgers

Cincinnati

N. C. State

Providence

13

Yale

Vermont

North Texas

New Mexico St.

14

Bowling Green

Hofstra

Colgate

South Dakota St.

15

Wright St.

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Belmont

16

Montana

Radford

St. Francis (PA)

Prairie View

Siena

N. C. A&T

First Four Out

 

69

Richmond

70

UCLA

71

Stanford

72

Arkansas

 

Next Four Out

 

73

Mississippi St.

74

Memphis

75

South Carolina

76

Texas

 

 

February 24, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 24, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:35 am

Date

2/21/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Baylor

Gonzaga

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Duke

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Creighton

Seton Hall

Louisville

Villanova

4

Kentucky

Oregon

Penn St.

West Virginia

5

Colorado

Auburn

Michigan St.

Butler

6

Iowa

Ohio St.

Michigan

Arizona

7

BYU

Marquette

Wisconsin

LSU

8

Houston

Illinois

Texas Tech

Arizona St.

9

Saint Mary’s

Florida

Virginia

Indiana

10

Rutgers

Xavier

Rhode Island

USC

11

Wichita St.

Utah St.

East Tennessee St.

Northern Iowa

12

Yale

Liberty

North Carolina St.

Oklahoma

Cincinnati

Providence

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

Belmont

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

South Dakota St.

16

Radford

Montana

Saint Peter’s

Prairie View

St. Francis (PA)

N. C. A&T

Bubble Teams Outside The Field (in order)

 

69

Richmond

70

Stanford

71

Georgetown

72

Arkansas

73

Alabama

74

Purdue

75

Memphis

76

UCLA

77

Mississippi St.

78

Minnesota

79

UNC Greensboro

80

Furman

 

Teams on the Rise

Akron

Arizona St.

Belmont

BYU

Creighton

Dayton

East Tennessee St.

Hofstra

Kansas

Kentucky

Michigan

Montana

New Mexico St.

Prairie View

Radford

St. Francis (PA)

Saint Peter’s

South Dakota St.

Stephen F. Austin

UCLA

UNC Greensboro

Utah St.

Villanova

Virginia

Wisconsin

 

Teams on the Decline

Butler

Marquette

Oklahoma

Penn St.

Purdue

Rider

Rutgers

South Carolina

USC

West Virginia

Winthrop

 

 

 

 

 

February 14, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 14, 2020

Date

2/14/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

Maryland

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

West Virginia

Auburn

4

Villanova

Butler

Penn St.

Oregon

5

Kentucky

Creighton

Michigan St.

Colorado

6

Marquette

Iowa

Arizona

LSU

7

Arizona

Rutgers

Wisconsin

Michigan

8

Ohio St.

Texas Tech

Illinois

Houston

9

USC

Purdue

Rhode Island

Saint Mary’s

10

Oklahoma

Florida

Xavier

Wichita St.

11

Stanford

Indiana

Northern Iowa

Arkansas

Virginia

12

East Tennessee St.

Yale

Stephen F. Austin

Cincinnati

Arizona St.

13

Liberty

Vermont

New Mexico St.

North Texas

14

Colgate

Wright St.

Akron

Winthrop

15

Hofstra

Little Rock

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Montana

Prairie View

Rider

Robert Morris

Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

VCU

70

N. Carolina St.

71

Mississippi St.

72

Utah St.

73

Georgetown

74

Richmond

75

Minnesota

76

Memphis

77

Furman

78

Notre Dame

79

Alabama

80

Tennessee

 

First Four Games

11–seeds: Arkansas vs. Virginia

12–seeds: Cincinnati vs. Arizona St.

16-seeds: Prairie View vs. Robert Morris

16-seeds: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

 

Best PiRate Rating Criteria To Win National Championship

Duke

February 11, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 11, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Akron

Bowling Green

9.0

Ball St.

Northern Illinois

6.8

Boise St.

Air Force

11.4

Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan

5.4

Colorado St.

Utah St.

-2.0

Davidson

Fordham

14.5

Dayton

Rhode Island

9.6

Illinois

Michigan St.

-1.7

Kansas St.

Oklahoma St.

2.3

LSU

Missouri

10.7

Maryland

Nebraska

17.3

Ohio

Western Michigan

5.7

Ole Miss

Mississippi St.

-1.8

Purdue

Penn St.

3.0

Saint Joseph’s

St. Bonaventure

-6.9

San Diego St.

New Mexico

16.7

Syracuse

North Carolina St.

3.1

Tennessee

Arkansas

-0.3

Toledo

Miami (O)

10.2

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

-9.8

Virginia

Notre Dame

3.3

Wake Forest

North Carolina

0.3

 

The Captain’s Table

 

Top Games on TV Tuesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

BTN

Purdue

Penn St.

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Akron

Bowling Green

7:00 PM

SECN

Tennessee

Arkansas

7:00 PM

ESPN2

Syracuse

North Carolina St.

7:30 PM

CBSSN

Dayton

Rhode Island

9:00 PM

ESPN

Illinois

Michigan St.

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Virginia

Notre Dame

9:30 PM

CBSSN

Colorado St.

Utah St.

 

Captain’s Musings

 

Where the NCAA Selection Committee Gets It Wrong

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee has issued its first preliminary seeding of top 16 teams, and we at the PiRate Ratings are happy to say we predicted all 16 teams on the correct seed line.  Predicting seed lines and teams accepted to the Big Dance isn’t all that difficult, because the NCAA clearly shows its cards.  With the exception of Team 68 and occasionally Team 67, determining in advance which 68 teams receive Dance Invitations is almost as exact as multiplication and division.

Usually, when our Bracketology, or our friends on the Internet that supply their own Bracketology, are finalized on Selection Sunday, the only differences in the brackets come on the lower seed lines.  Many times, predictions for a seed line were accurate, but the Committee had to move a team up or down one seed in order to obey the NCAA’s rules about facing an opponent from the same conference in the opening rounds.

Basically, the process is done correctly every time, and when Team number 69 is left out, no matter who that team is, the folks at CBS and ESPN immediately cross-examine the Committee Chairman as if a major slight has taken place.  That is done strictly to get the public to keep watching their Selection Sunday special show, because face it, the public could just as easily wait 30 minutes and quickly see the entire field in the bracket on their computer or phone.

We have no issues with the Selection Committee every year.  They do a great job, and it isn’t easy to get a dozen highly opinionated people to agree on whether Teams 67, 68, 69, and 70 deserve to be in or left out.  The consensus usually is right.

Our problem hangs entirely on the process itself, and we have one major complaint that we believe needs to move high up on the priority line.  That statistic is where a team finishes in its own conference.

Why continue to even have conference play if a team that finishes in third place sweeps the 7th place team and then watches the 7th place team get an NCAA bid, while they have to go to the NIT.  Do you think this doesn’t happen?  Unfortunately, this, or something similar, happens almost every year.

Take a look at South Carolina last year.  The Gamecocks handily beat Florida in Gainesville, and they wiped Ole Miss off the floor.  They split with Mississippi St.  All told, USC finished a game ahead of the two Magnolia State teams and two games ahead of Florida.  Yet, they were the team left out of the NCAA Tournament, while the three teams below them in the standings all went to the Big Dance.

What good is having a conference race at all, if it means absolutely nothing, other than that the regular season champion is guaranteed a spot in the NIT if it fails to make the NCAA Tournament?

If we were named the Commissioner of College Basketball, there would be changes made.  First, we would flip the rules on automatic NCAA Tournament bids.  We’d award an automatic NCAA Tournament bid to the regular season champion of each conference and then guarantee an NIT bid to all Conference Tournament winners that did not receive an NCAA Tournament bid.

Let’s look at a possibility that would make this rule show how much better the tournament might be flipping the automatic bids.  Look at this year’s Southland Conference.  Stephen F. Austin is talented enough and well-coached enough to challenge for a Sweet 16 appearance if not more.  The Lumberjacks won at Duke in one of those games where the zebras tried their hardest to give the big team the win.  SFA players were whistled for fouls just for occupying the same city block in Durham, while Duke players had to commit felonious assault before they were whistled for fouls.  Still, SFA won the game, and had this game been played with totally unbiased officials, the Lumberjacks would have actually blown Duke off the Cameron Indoor Stadium floor.

SFA (12-1/21-3) is three games ahead of its nearest conference foe.  They are likely to enter the Southland Conference Tournament at 28-3 and no worse than 27-4.  And, for this incredible run, the Lumberjacks will be guaranteed only an NIT bid.  They will have to win the SLC Tournament to get into the Field of 68.  What if a team like Nicholls State catches SFA on a cold shooting day and upsets the Lumberjacks?  Nicholls will go bye bye in the opening game, while SFA will probably be forced to play a road NIT game and receive the same type of home-cooking officiating that they faced in Durham.

Under our system, The Lumberjacks would still go to the NCAA Tournament, while Nicholls State would be guaranteed that NIT bid or be allowed to accept the CIT bid if they preferred.  The Colonels might finish four games in back of SFA, and after a 20-game conference schedule, when one team finishes 19-1 in the league and the second best team goes 15-5, it is quite clear which team is better and more deserving of the NCAA bid.

The same holds true in the Power Conferences.  Let’s look at the crazy Big Ten race this year.  Currently, three teams, Ohio State, Indiana, and Michigan, are tied for 12th place at 5-7 in the conference.  Minnesota is a half-game ahead of the trio at 6-7.  However, if you look at the criteria used by the NCAA Selection Committee, Minnesota is barely on the bad side of the Bubble and looking at the NIT, while the other three teams are in the Field.  The Big Ten plays a 20-game conference schedule, so if any number of these four teams get in the Field, the preference should be to take the team(s) that finish higher in the standings.  20 games are enough to determine which teams are better than which teams.  Using advanced metrics is great, and we are devoted Sabermetric devotees, but we realize that actual results trump theoretical results.

 

The 2020 R+T Rating Revision

Recently, we were asked to explain how our power ratings are computed, and we gave a detailed explanation of how we rely on the “Four Factors” of basketball and then apply weightings to each of the four offensive and four defensive factors and then adjust the data based on strength of schedule and a constant (that changes a little every year).  What we basically end up with is something similar to baseball’s weighted on-base average and WAR, where instead of estimating how many wins the players on a baseball team are worth, we estimate how many points better or worse than average each team is worth.

In that explanation, we relied heavily on something that has been obvious in Major League Baseball through the “Moneyball” years.  As Oakland Athletics’ General Manager Billy Beane has so succinctly said in the past, “My stuff doesn’t work in the playoffs.”  He didn’t use the word “stuff” but the PiRates refrain from using foul language.

What Beane said was proven to be correct over and over again.  The analytics that show a team how to win 90+ games don’t apply to winning in the playoffs, and there is a reason for this.  Let’s use last year’s Tampa Bay Rays as an example.

The Rays finished 96-66 and made the playoffs.  Tampa Bay played Baltimore and Toronto 19 times each.  They played Kansas City and the LA Angels seven times and Detroit and Seattle six times.   Even against good teams like the Yankees, Twins, Indians, Astros, and Athletics, they faced those teams’ number four and number five starting pitchers between one third and 40% of the time.

In the playoffs, the Yankees are not going to use their number four and number five pitchers, except in mop up duty.  In a seven game series, they might send their number one ace out there to start games 1, 4, and 7, if he can pitch on three days rest.

Moneyball statistics and all the evolved improved statistics are meant to be used over the course of an entire season’s worth of games.  After 100 games played, the strategies of going for big innings and limiting strategies like sacrifice bunting, hit and run, stolen bases, and hitting to the right side of the infield prove to be less efficient and successful in scoring runs on the whole and even winning games.  Small ball doesn’t work when almost every team now plays in a “band box” ballpark.

However, in the playoffs, when a team is facing the opposing ace or number two pitcher, and when they face the top relievers earlier in the games at the highest leverage, attempting to draw walks and hit three-run homers isn’t going to pop those cheap champagne bottles in the clubhouse.  When Justin Verlander takes the bump in October, you beat him by scratching out a couple runs here and there and hoping your pitching staff can hold the Astros in check for a 3-2 or 2-1 victory.  If you expect to put a crooked number on the scoreboard in the 6 or 7 innings he’s on the hill, you stand a big chance of putting up a run of goose eggs.

The same theory holds true in college basketball.  Over the course of a season, shooting the ball and preventing the other team from shooting the ball is going to determine the winner more times than not.  A team that can get to the foul line and hit 75% of their foul shots to win might go 13-5 in their conference and 24-7 overall.  They might get a fat #4 seed and then promptly lose to the #13 seed from a Mid-Major conference.  And, when you look at that Mid-Major team, they weren’t great shooters, but they could clean the glass better than Windex.

At tournament time, unless your team is playing a 20-loss patsy that got hot and won their post-season tournament, or your team has a number one seed and faces a 16-seed that is far outclassed, your team better be able to rebound the ball and avoid turnovers.

Thus, through the years of the 64 to 68-team NCAA Tournaments, basketball’s “Moneyball” system of trying to win the shooting wars for six or seven games just doesn’t work like it does in the regular season, when a team might win four out of every five games all year to record a 28-7 record.  The only record that matters after the Ides of March is 6-0 or 7-0.

How does a team go 6-0 or 7-0 in the NCAA Tournament?  In almost every case, said team is incredibly proficient in getting extra scoring opportunities.  How does a team get extra scoring opportunities?  They grab more rebounds on the offensive end and prevent the other team from doing the same. They force more turnovers on the opponent than they commit, and they capitalize on steals for easier scoring opportunities.  A steal is much more valuable than any other turnover, because more points per possession are scored following a steal than any other situation.

Thus, for many years, we tried to simulate how many potential extra points a team might experience through superior rebounding and protecting the ball.  We created our R+T Rating and used this formula with great success to predict which teams might advance to the later rounds of the tournament, the Final Four, and the Championship.

In many of the seasons, if the top R+T Rating belonged to a Power Conference team, we made them our favorite to win all the marbles, and we were rewarded multiple times.  We even picked a couple of upset dark horses along the way like Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler to make it to the Final Four.  We even isolated on Connecticut to make a run in the year where they broke all the criteria and won the Championship from way back in the pack.

In this time of advanced statistics, we have been trying to improve upon our R+T Rating with a new calculation, one that relies of rate stats over counting stats.  Rebound and turnover margin and steals per game have done well for us for two decades, but we realize there is a difference between rebounding margins.  If a team wins the rebounding battle 33-28, they have done much better than a team that wins the rebounding battle 43-37.  The R+T shows that the 43-37 result is better than the 33-28 result, but that is incorrect.  The 33-28 team retrieved better than 54% of the missed shots, while the 43-37 team only retrieved 53.8%.  Additionally, because offensive rebounding is so much more difficult than defensive rebounding, we really cannot tell which team did a better job.  What if the team that had 37 rebounds from among the four listed above happened to shoot a very low percentage in their game against the team that had 43 rebounds?  What if from the 80 rebounding opportunities in their game, 48 were at their offensive end of the floor and just 32 were at their defensive end of the floor?  What if this team had 14 offensive rebounds on the 48 rebounding opportunities at their offensive end and 23 rebounds from the 32.  By using the Rebounding Rate of the Four Factors, the team that lost the rebounding battle 43-37 actually performed a little better than the team that got the 43 rebounds by the count of 29.2% to 28.1%.

Thus, we are working on a new R+T Rate.  We have been trying to work out a linear regression line with six variables and a constant, and our friends, that is really hard to do, since it involves changing weights and constants over and over until the results are tighter and tighter to the line.  After a couple months, the line is getting there.  We have settled on the handicapping of each component of the stat and only have to deal with a constant that gives us the best back-tested accuracy.  We hope to debut the new R+T Rate just before the NCAA Tournament commences in Dayton.

January 29, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 29, 2020

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Arkansas

South Carolina

10.2

Army

Bucknell

0.2

Boise St.

San Jose St.

16.8

Boston College

Louisville

-12.0

Boston University

Loyola (MD)

9.4

Bradley

Valparaiso

7.6

Central Arkansas

Southeast Louisiana

5.5

Central Florida

Memphis

-3.1

Citadel

Wofford

-7.1

Colgate

Lafayette

8.0

Colorado St.

Nevada

1.5

Connecticut

Temple

4.4

Duquesne

Dayton

-9.0

East Carolina

Houston

-13.7

East Tennessee St.

Mercer

16.0

Fordham

St. Bonaventure

-5.3

Furman

VMI

17.3

George Washington

Davidson

-5.5

Hartford

Binghamton

7.8

Houston Baptist

Incarnate Word

5.7

Illinois St.

Evansville

5.8

Indiana St.

Drake

4.4

Iowa St.

Baylor

-4.9

Kansas St.

Oklahoma

-0.6

Kentucky

Vanderbilt

17.5

La Salle

Saint Louis

-3.0

LSU

Alabama

4.3

Massachusetts

Saint Joseph’s

6.4

McNeese St.

Nicholls St.

0.6

Michigan St.

Northwestern

18.3

Navy

Holy Cross

12.2

New Hampshire

Vermont

-10.7

New Mexico

San Diego St.

-8.3

New Orleans

Northwestern St.

4.2

Northern Iowa

Missouri St.

10.6

Notre Dame

Wake Forest

8.1

Oral Roberts

South Dakota St.

3.6

Penn St.

Indiana

5.0

Saint Peter’s

Monmouth

1.5

Sam Houston St.

Texas A&M-CC

10.2

Samford

Chattanooga

-4.1

Seton Hall

DePaul

12.3

Southern Illinois

Loyola (Chi)

-3.3

Stephen F. Austin

Abilene Christian

8.4

TCU

Texas

4.1

Texas Tech

West Virginia

-1.4

Tulane

South Florida

0.4

UMass Lowell

Stony Brook

-5.7

UMBC

Albany

-0.7

Utah Valley

California Baptist

-2.0

Washington St.

Arizona St.

-2.0

Western Carolina

UNC Greensboro

-4.0

Xavier

Marquette

-0.4

 

Important TV Games on Wednesday

You will need multiple monitors tonight if you want to see all the important basketball games.  Besides multiple key games that will help decide seeding in the “one-bid” conferences, there are some big-time power conference games that will determine who stays in the good graces of the NCAA Selection Committee and who has to blow bubbles.

 

DePaul has fallen to last place in the Big East, and the Blue Demons are out of the field for now.  They could get in position to get in position for the Bubble with a road win against Big East leader Seton Hall.  The Hall is merely playing for a chance to move up to the #1 Seed line if a couple teams above the Pirates lose.

 

Duquesne is two games out of first in the Atlantic 10, and the A-10 is not yet a definite two-bid league, unless somebody upsets Dayton in the conference tournament.  So, seeding for the conference tournament is vital.  The Dukes host the Flyers tonight in the  City of Bridges.  If Dayton keeps winning, the Flyers could move up to a #2 Seed.

 

The Game of the Night in the South is the LSU-Alabama contest in Baton Rouge.  The Tigers are riding an 8-game winning streak that includes four road wins.  Alabama comes to town riding a 4-game winning streak, and the Tide are one big win away from crashing into the next Bracketology list.  ‘Bama first-year coach Nate Oats is one of three hot new leaders (along with Buzz Williams at Texas A&M and Eric Musselman of Arkansas) of SEC schools.  Expect a lot of possessions.

 

New Hampshire hosts Vermont in a key America East game between neighborly rivals.  Vermont leads three A-East rivals by one game with UNH two games back.  In a league where the higher seed hosts every conference tournament game, and with Vermont having an incredible home court advantage, upsetting the Catamounts when they play on the road is the only way to bring them back to the pack and possibly make them have to play a championship game on the road.

 

In the SoCon tonight, the Western Carolina-UNC Greensboro winner could find themselves in second place before the night is over.  Both teams are strong enough to challenge league leader East Tennessee State.   If ETSU continues to dominate the regular season and then gets upset in the SoCon Championship Game, this could become a two-bid league.

 

The Big 12 game of the night finds two potential Elite 8 teams playing in Lubbock as last year’s national runner-up Texas Tech hosts West Virginia.  If Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers win this road game tonight, they are just a Gonzaga or San Diego State loss away from moving to the top seed line.

 

Also in the Big 12, TCU hosts Texas, where the loser of this game falls well back in the pack in at-large tournament consideration, while the winner will most likely move up to one of the last teams out or possibly a 12-seed in a play-in game in Dayton.

 

In The Big Ten, Penn State has been quite a surprise this year, while Indiana has been on the cusp of breaking out and returning to power, but keeps stubbing its toe by blowing second half leads.  The winner of this game will be above .500 in the league, and in this year’s Big Ten, any team finishing at .500 or better in conference play is going dancing in March.

 

We have the Big East as the third toughest conference in the land this week.  It figures that half of the league will get NCAA Tournament Bids.  Xavier is 2-5 in the league hosting a Marquette team that is 4-4 in the league.  The teams are fighting it out tonight with 5th and 6th place in the balance.

 

Arkansas hosts a hot South Carolina team tonight in Fayetteville.  The Gamecocks have an interesting resume, but it isn’t NCAA Tournament worthy–yet.  USC owns road wins against Clemson and Virginia as well as a home win over Kentucky, but they also lost to Boston U and Stetson.  Meanwhile Musselman has Arkansas in line for a top 8 NCAA seed, and he is the co-favorite along with A&M’s Williams for SEC Coach of the Year.

 

Six years ago, Stephen F. Austin beat Virginia Commonwealth in the NCAA Tournament before falling to UCLA in the Round of 32.  Then coach Brad Underwood became a hot commodity, where he moved on to the big time.  He’s doing a great job at Illinois.  Current head coach Kyle Keller has been an assistant to Eddie Sutton, Bill Self, and Billy Kennedy, and he could be the next hot commodity coming out of Nacogdoches.  His Lumberjacks faces one of their toughest conference contests tonight when SFA hosts Abilene Christian.  Coach Joe Goldings’ Wildcats bring the toughest defense in the league to face SFA’s outstanding perimeter offense.

 

Out West in the Mountain West, San Diego State has two somewhat difficult games remaining on their schedule in their attempt to be the first team to arrive at the NCAA with a perfect unbeaten record since Wichita State in 2014.  One of those tough games comes tonight when the Aztecs play at the Pit in Albuquerque against New Mexico.  SDSU Coach Brian Dutcher should be the leading candidate for National Coach of the Year, after he scored the best “free agent” trio at the end of last year.  Dutcher was able to attract Malachi Flynn from Washington State, Yanni Wetzell from Vanderbilt, and K.J. Feagin from Santa Clara, all who start for the Aztecs.  Flynn and Wetzell figure to end up on the All-MWC team.  

 

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

FS1

Seton Hall

DePaul

7:00 PM

CBSSN

Duquesne

Dayton

7:00 PM

ESPN2

LSU

Alabama

7:00 PM

ESPN+

New Hampshire

Vermont

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Western Carolina

UNC Greensboro

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Texas Tech

West Virginia

8:00 PM

ESPN+

TCU

Texas

8:30 PM

BigTen

Penn St.

Indiana

8:30 PM

FS1

Xavier

Marquette

8:30 PM

SECN

Arkansas

South Carolina

8:30 PM

ESPN+

Stephen F. Austin

Abilene Christian

9:00 PM

CBSSN

New Mexico

San Diego St.

 

 

 

 

 

January 22, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 22, 2020

Spreads For Games Being Played Wednesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Xavier

Georgetown

2.6

Auburn

South Carolina

10.9

Louisville

Georgia Tech

13.6

Dayton

St. Bonaventure

16.9

Michigan

Penn St.

4.0

Mississippi St.

Arkansas

1.4

Richmond

La Salle

11.7

Rhode Island

Duquesne

4.3

Fordham

George Washington

0.3

Stony Brook

Binghamton

17.9

Hartford

UMBC

4.6

Albany

UMass Lowell

4.7

Notre Dame

Syracuse

3.2

Temple

Cincinnati

0.1

Marist

Manhattan

-4.2

Loyola (MD)

American

0.4

Lafayette

Army

9.7

Boston U

Navy

5.8

Evansville

Drake

-6.1

Chattanooga

Citadel

10.2

Mercer

Western Carolina

-2.0

Furman

Samford

16.3

Maine

Vermont

-15.9

Davidson

Saint Louis

3.3

George Mason

Massachusetts

5.9

Marshall

Western Kentucky

-0.2

Wofford

VMI

11.8

Holy Cross

Lehigh

-3.5

Northwestern St.

Stephen F. Austin

-10.5

Little Rock

Troy

10.0

Incarnate Word

Lamar

-7.1

Nicholls St.

Houston Baptist

16.4

Loyola (Chi)

Indiana St.

5.1

Texas A&M-CC

New Orleans

4.6

SMU

East Carolina

15.3

Bradley

Illinois St.

11.2

SE Louisiana

McNeese St.

-3.5

South Dakota St.

North Dakota St.

3.6

Virginia Tech

North Carolina

5.4

Seton Hall

Providence

11.4

Sam Houston St.

Abilene Christian

5.3

Tulsa

Memphis

-4.5

DePaul

Creighton

0.5

Pittsburgh

Boston College

10.9

Iowa

Rutgers

5.6

Vanderbilt

Alabama

-8.3

Southern Illinois

Northern Iowa

-6.6

Colorado St.

Fresno St.

4.4

California Baptist

Chicago St.

25.3

UC Davis

Cal St. Fullerton

5.1

Long Beach St.

UC Irvine

-9.6

UCSB

Cal St. Northridge

9.9

Nevada

UNLV

5.1

 

 

 

 

 

January 15, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 15, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:04 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Wednesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Butler

Seton Hall

4.8

South Carolina

Kentucky

-6.1

Syracuse

Boston College

10.3

Florida St.

Virginia

7.7

Georgetown

Creighton

1.7

Georgia

Tennessee

0.1

Duquesne

Fordham

16.0

North Carolina St.

Miami (Fla.)

6.8

East Carolina

Tulsa

-3.6

Saint Bonaventure

Massachusetts

6.8

Rutgers

Indiana

3.2

Saint Joseph’s

Rhode Island

-9.6

Baylor

Iowa St.

10.4

Marquette

Xavier

5.4

Oklahoma St.

Texas

4.0

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

13.0

Providence

St. John’s

3.4

Georgia Tech

Notre Dame

1.4

Alabama

Auburn

-2.3

Minnesota

Penn St.

2.8

Temple

Wichita St.

-1.6

Houston

SMU

8.0

Air Force

Boise St.

-0.7

Colorado St.

New Mexico

-0.1

UCLA

Stanford

-3.1

UNLV

San Jose St.

13.4

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