PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Play(s)

Last Friday, we issued a special Money Line Parlay play that went off at +250, and it won.  We had help getting the five winning teams at relatively low odds together.  But, it was up to us to put the parlay together, as none of the “Sharps” that tutored us on how to play smarter actually ended up with this parlay (until one person saw it on this site and did play a small wager on it.

This week, we are swimming in the deep end without the swim instructors.  Can we find another rare gem with a big payout?  We doubt it, but here goes any way.

Remember, the members of the PiRate Ratings NEVER wager money on the picks we issue; actually, we just don’t wager at all, and if you are planning to wager real money, please do not do so based on what you read here.

Even the top Sharps that are now teaching us more about what we have been doing wrong in recent years only win about 62 to 65% of their wagers, and they wager 10-20 games a week.  If you took their advice but only chose a couple of their wagers, the chances that you’d win big would be minimal, because they have to play double digit games a week to avoid risk and let the law of averages tilt to their side.

Since only about 1% of those that wager regularly are profitable, and since 99% of these winners wouldn’t think of giving you advice, realize that practically every service out there that is marketing their talents to you are profiting off your money and not their wagers.  If they were really successful players, they would never offer their advice to the public.  They’d keep it to themselves and selfishly continue to win.

Now that you know that we are giving you these picks, you should understand these two things.

1. We are not part of the 1% of Sharps that enjoy 6-figure and 7-figure annual careers, as we do not wager one cent.

2. Our selections provided to you for free are worth exactly what you paid for it.  If we really knew what we were doing, then we might be in Las Vegas with some of our friends placing wagers and never telling anybody else what we selected.

 

This week’s theme is trying to find incredible value betting a parlay of underdogs.  We looked at all the college games this week and isolated on five teams we believe stand decent chances to win outright as underdogs.  

We actually issued individual Money Line selections on each of these five teams in individual plays, because we feel like three of these teams should pull the actual upset.

The five games where we have studied the personnel groupings and looked for extras like teams playing a sandwich game between two more important games involve these games.

 

Marshall over Cincinnati

Duke over Virginia Tech

Kansas State over Oklahoma State

Baylor over Iowa State

North Carolina State over Florida State.

 

You can play each of these game as singular money line plays and get better than +120 odds on each team.

At the time of this writing, you can get Duke at +125 at a couple of the big books in Nevada.  You can get North Carolina State at +210.  Both Marshall and Kansas State can be found at +165.  Baylor can be wagered at +130.

What if you began combining these teams into 2 or 3 game parlays?  The potential odds are incredible.  Yes, the potential for winning is minimal, but for a little pretend money, you could make a pretend killing if you pick the right 2 or 3 teams.

There’s the rub.  If you play all five teams as single money line upset choices, you stand a decent chance of making a minor imaginary profit.  But, if just one of the potential big payout parlays pays off, you could make five times what you put in.

Let’s look at some examples.  We can’t list them all, as there are too many combinations.

 

 

2-Game Parlays

Marshall over Cincinnati and Duke over Virginia Tech: +485

Marshall over Cincinnati and Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: +496

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St. & North Carolina St. over Florida St.: +722

 

 

3-Game Parlays

Kansas St. over Oklahoma St., Baylor over Iowa St., & NC ST. over Florida St.: +1790

Marshall, Kansas St., and North Carolina St. all in upset wins: +2036

Have fun making combinations of these games.  Here’s the complete crazy parlay where you combine all five of these teams.

If you bet Marshall, Kansas St., North Carolina St., Baylor, and Duke all to win in upsets, the money line parlay payout would be:

 

+10953

Yes, if you were crazy enough to put $100 in Nevada on these five teams to win in upset games, and all five pulled off their upsets, you would cash a winning ticket of $11,053!

If you only put $10 on this parlay, you could cash $1,105.

If you just put that same dollar you use playing Mega Millions, and it won, you’d pocket more than $110, and your chances to win on this parlay are multitudes better than winning the lottery.

—————————————————————————————————————————————-

Did you hear about the guy that bet 89 cents on a ton of games last week on a parlay, and won every game heading into Monday Night Football.  Had the Washington Redskins won that final bet for him, he would have taken that 89 cents and cashed in a half million dollars!

When the Bears won the game, the naive media announced that the poor sap lost.  Without knowing for sure, we bet that this guy won big, maybe even 6-figures.

The media is never the best place to receive information on anything.  In this case, we are confident that the bettor hedged his wager on Monday morning.  Obviously, he probably didn’t have $100,000 to invest on the MNF game, but he probably found a willing money lender to purchase that ticket for 100 grand.

If you had $100,000, and you bought that ticket, then the guy that spent 89 cents just won $99,999.19 on his wager, and he leaves quite happy as a big winner, at least until he realizes his tax bracket just went way up.

The person that bought that potential half-million dollar ticket then played as many different tickets he needed on Monday afternoon until he had $200,000 in wagers on the Bears.  It would have taken him going to multiple books, but it is easily done.

Let’s look at the money lender on Monday afternoon.

1. $100,000 spent buying the ticket

2. $200,000 spent buying tickets on the Bears.

If the Redskins had won the last game on that parlay, the lender collects the half million dollar payout and profits by $200,000 since he invested $300,000.

If the Bears had won (which they did), then the half-million dollar parlay is trashed, but the lender cashes in a winning ticket on his Bears bet and receives $400,000.  The profit is only $100,000 in this case.

Technically, the lender could have places additional bets on the Redskins, which would have brought his guaranteed payout to around $135,000 no matter what the outcome, but we just wanted to show you an example in hedging to get a guaranteed win.

If you had a 50% chance of realizing a 33% of 67% return on your investment in 24 hours, you are guaranteeing yourself an average ROI of 50% in one day!  Now, how many of you with some seed money are planning to relocate to Nevada and do some hedge playing?  Alas, we here are more like the 89 cent investor.

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 31, 2019

 

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Kentucky	118.3	0.0	Auburn	116.5	1.8
Duke	122.1	0.0	Michigan St.	121.2	0.9

Today’s Schedule

Team	Team	TIME (EDT)	TV	LOCATION
Kentucky	Auburn	2:20 PM	CBS	Kansas City
Duke	Michigan St.	5:05 PM	CBS	Washington, D.C.

 

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Elite 8

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Gonzaga	56.36	17.3	30.7	73.6	12.9	16.5	15.0
Texas Tech	59.03	10.2	27.6	72.0	16.0	20.0	4.2

Texas Tech enjoys a slight SOS edge, but Gonzaga’s exceptional R+T Rating is a major factor in this game.  Gonzaga will enjoy a modest rebounding advantage at both ends of the court, while the Bulldogs will be able to withstand the Red Raiders’ ball-hawking ability.  Thus, turnover margin should be close to even.  Gonzaga’s TS% Margin is somewhat better here, and the SOS advantage by TTU is mostly negated.

Prediction: Gonzaga by 6 to 11 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Virginia	59.89	12.3	29.7	75.0	12.9	15.8	10.2
Purdue	61.14	3.6	34.0	74.0	13.5	16.6	11.5

Purdue’s SOS and R+T Rating are marginally better, while Virginia holds a commanding TS% Margin advantage.  Purdue should grab a few additional offensive rebounds in this game, while turnovers should be relatively close.  This has the makings of an exciting close game, just like so many others in this year’s tournament.  In this game, the Bracketnomics cannot pick a conclusive winner, so other factors must be included.  Virginia has been a little more consistent in matching their statistical data, while Purdue has been a little more varied.  I will go with the more consistent team.

Prediction: Virginia by 2 to 7 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kentucky	60.76	9.8	36.6	74.7	15.8	16.0	16.2
Auburn	60.34	1.9	32.2	67.8	14.6	21.8	2.7

The effect of the Chuma Okeke injury can only be estimated for Auburn, while Kentucky’s P.J. Washington appears to be close to 100% for this game after playing well against Houston.

You would expect conference rivals at this point of the season to have similar SOS’s, and these two teams do.  Kentucky’s R+T Rating is so superior in this game, and their TS% Margin is considerably better, so this makes it a potential blowout game.  Auburn will force the Wildcats into a few extra turnovers, but the rebounding edge could be scary in this game, as the Big Blue might be able to win the boards by more than a 60-40% advantage.  

During the regular season, Kentucky beat Auburn both times.  It was a close game in Auburn, but the Wildcats breezed to an easy win in Lexington.

Prediction: Kentucky by 10 to 15 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Duke	62.63	9.8	35.5	71.0	14.7	17.0	12.1
Michigan St.	61.29	14.0	33.8	74.1	16.4	12.7	12.3

This game has the makings of another classic.  The data predicts a close contest.  Duke’s SOS advantage is minimal, and the R+T Ratings basically wash.  Michigan State’s TS% Margin mostly comes from a better 3-point shooting ability, and only slightly better defense.  Duke’s big advantage comes in turnover margin.  The Blue Devils have the ability to exploit the Spartans’ real liability, as Sparty is prone to turning the ball over, while Duke is a competent team when it comes to forcing turnovers.  Michigan State’s normal rebounding strength will be somewhat negated if not totally negated in this game.

It isn’t a slam dunk win for Coach K over Coach Izzo, but the Blue Devils have more going for themselves in the data for this one.

Prediction: Duke by 5 to 10 points

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 29, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Michigan St.	121.0	0.0	LSU	114.5	6.5
North Carolina	121.4	0.0	Auburn	115.9	5.5
Duke	122.4	0.0	Virginia Tech	115.4	7.0
Kentucky	118.3	0.0	Houston	116.0	2.3

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team	Team	TIME (EDT)	TV	LOCATION
LSU	Michigan St.	7:09 PM	CBS	Washington, D.C.
Auburn	N. Carolina	7:29 PM	TBS	Kansas City
Va. Tech	Duke	9:39 PM	CBS	Washington, D.C.
Houston	Kentucky	9:59 PM	TBS	Kansas City

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Sweet 16

What a Sweet 16 we have!  My experience in watching the NCAA Tournament goes back to the 1964 season as UCLA went 30-0 using a small lineup with no starter over 6 foot 5.  The 16-0 run in 2 1/2 minutes made me a Bruin fan on the spot, especially because one of the catalysts was small,left-handed guard Gail Goodrich; I was also a small, left-handed guard.

On the whole, my memory now includes 56 different NCAA Tournaments.  I had a difficult time finding a Sweet 16 as strong as this one.  I had to go back to the 1970 season to find the equivalent in power teams still in the Dance.  Of course, in 1970,  there were just 25 teams invited to the Tournament, so 18 teams competed in the opening round, while another seven received express bids to the Sweet 16.

Among that talented group of 1970 teams, there were:

1. UCLA was not supposed to win the 1970 tournament, as Kareem Abdul Jabbar and his fantastic class of 1969 graduated.  Sidney Wicks, Curtis Rowe, and Henry Bibby gave John Wooden an incredibly talented trio to build around as he went back to his high post offense.

2. Jacksonville had Artis Gilmore and Rex Morgan as an incredible inside-outside attack.  The Dolphins averaged close to 100 points per game and had a second starter in their lineup, Pembroke Burrows, who was over 7 feet tall.

3. St. Bonaventure had the best player in college basketball not named Maravich in Bob Lanier.  Lanier led the Bonnies to the top of the Eastern Elite, and SBU made it to the Final Four.  However, Lanier was injured in the East Regional Final and SBU had no chance in the Final Four against Jacksonville.

4. New Mexico State was in the top 5 all year long with future NBA stars Charlie Criss and Sam Lacey as well as hot shooting Jimmy Collins.  The Aggies were picked by many as capable of beating UCLA in the national semifinals.  Wicks and Rowe put NMSU out of their misery early in the second half.

5. Kentucky might have had the best team in the nation in 1970 had star guard Mike Casey not have suffered season-ending injuries in a car wreck the summer before.  With Dan Issel, Mike Pratt, Tom Parker, and Larry Steele, the Wildcats might have gone 30-0 had Casey not hurt his leg.

6. Niagara had the incomparable 5 foot 9 inch Calvin Murphy who was the total package on the hardwoods.  Murphy averaged well over 30 ppg for his career with the Purple Eagles and enjoyed a lengthy pro career.  He once scored 68 points against Syracuse.  He was a lot more than a scorer.  His defensive pressure broke down opposing teams.  He could drive quickly through defenses and pass to open teammates under the basket, and he was the best baton twirler in the college ranks.

7. Villanova had two future NBA All-Stars in Howard Porter and Chris Ford, as well as Fran O’Hanlon, who played in the ABA.  It was Ford that tripped Lanier in the Eastern Regional Championship Game that doomed St. Bonaventure.

8. Notre Dame had the best offensive player in the tournament in Austin Carr.  Carr was unstoppable on offense with the way officials called fouls in 1970.  He averaged over 38 points per game, but he made history in this tournament by scoring 61 points in the opening round win over Ohio U.  He hit for more than 50 in the Sweet 16 against Kentucky.

9. Iowa set the Big Ten record for points per game in 1970, almost averaging 100 points per night.  Among their stars was Downtown Freddie Brown, who would become one of the best 6th men in NBA history.  Before he became known as “Instant Offense” off the Seattle Supersonics’ bench, he was a dynamic starter for the Hawkeyes along with John Johnson, who averaged close to 30 ppg.

14 of the 16 teams in that tournament were what I consider strong teams according to today’s statistical standards, and 14 of this year’s 16 remaining teams fit that same description.

It’s no coincidence that of the 16 teams left, the Bracketnomics correctly picked 14 of the 16.

NOTE: The data that follows may be a little different than the original Bracketnomics’ posting at the beginning of the tournament.  Stats have been altered, especially the Strengths of Schedule (SOS) for some of the teams.

If you get to re-select your brackets at this point, ignore the original predictions and use these updated stats.  The originals predictions are still our “official bracket-picks,” but in this round, there is new and improved analytics.

NOTE 2: Do not confuse the Bracketnomics’ selections with the PiRate Ratings, which may contradict these picks in a couple of games.  The PiRate Ratings are strictly mechanical with no objective reasoning applied.  Bracketnomics are more subjective based on back-tested data usable only in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Gonzaga	56.14	17.6	31.1	73.2	12.8	16.5	15.1
Florida St.	59.85	3.7	33.0	73.5	16.2	18.0	9.1

After two rounds in this tournament, Gonzaga still owns the best criteria in the field, and nothing has changed in our beliefs that they have the best chance to run the table.  The Bulldogs only potential weakness is schedule strength, but at 56%+, it is more than adequate for a national champion.  The True Shooting % Margin combined with the R+T make The Zags the much better team here.  Florida State relies on offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers, but Gonzaga is not the team that the Seminoles can exploit enough times to come up with the win.  Gonzaga gets revenge for last year’s Sweet 16.

Prediction:  Gonzaga by 10-15 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Tennessee	59.50	5.3	31.1	70.5	13.9	15.8	5.5
Purdue	60.82	3.5	34.3	74.0	13.6	16.9	11.6

Purdue hasn’t been in the Elite 8 since 2000, and they have not made it to the Final Four since 1980.  The Boilermakers have historically been unable to get scoring spurts in the Gene Keady-Matt Painter years.  They played excellent half-court offense and defense defense, but their style did not allow them to be overpowering on the boards or to gamble for steals on defense.  Like Money Ball does not work in the Major League Playoffs, possession basketball doesn’t work well in the Big Dance.  Teams need to have that spurtability, which is what the R+T rating shows, and Purdue has rarely had a great R+T rating.  That was the past; this Boilermaker squad has a very good R+T rating, and it comes from both an excellent rebounding strength combined with an adequate ability to force turnovers and not cough the ball up enough times to matter.

Tennessee is more like the old Purdue teams.  The Volunteers have excellent half-court presence on both sides of the ball, but they cannot dominate on the glass, and they do not force enough turnovers.  In this game, I look for Purdue to get numerous second chance scoring opportunities, and eventually, the Boilermakers will go for the kill shot with a scoring run that gives them the victory.

Prediction: Purdue by 6 to 11 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan	59.87	8.8	24.0	75.6	12.1	15.9	4.0
Texas Tech	58.42	10.1	28.1	71.7	16.1	20.0	4.4

 

This has the chance to be a classic game that will generate headlines for a long time.  This is the closest thing to a 50-50 tossup there can be.  If you had to choose one game to go to triple overtime, this is the one I’d pick (I just gave it the kiss of death and it will be a blowout now).

With Michigan’s 1 1/2 point SOS advantage, it basically makes all the criteria dead even.  Two teams with excellent defensive efficiency should lead to the game being decided on rebounding and turnovers.  The Red Raiders are better on the offensive glass, but the Wolverines are better on the defensive glass.  Texas Tech is considerably better forcing turnovers, but Michigan is considerably better holding onto the ball.  The R+T is dead even.  The only tiny little stat where there is a difference is TS% Margin, where even with the better SOS, Michigan comes up just a tad short, but not enough to matter more than one point on the scoreboard.

I have to go to extracurricular statistics here to select a winner in this game.  Texas Tech has been more consistent with their production, while Michigan’s standard deviation of statistics has been greater.  The Wolverines have been up for five consecutive games, while Texas Tech has been on an even keel since January.  Michigan has experience from making it to the Championship Game last year, while Texas Tech made it to the Elite 8 last year, so once again this washes.  Michigan is 7-3 against ranked teams this year.  TTU is 3-2.  Maybe, this is the only stat I can use to pick a winner, and it is still a total guess.  I’ll have my eyes glued to this game.

Prediction: Michigan by 1 to 5 points, possibly in overtime

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Virginia	59.95	12.9	29.9	74.8	13.0	15.7	10.4
Oregon	55.83	4.5	29.4	71.7	15.4	18.3	4.3

Oregon coach Dana Altman deserves a ton of credit.  If you don’t think losing a 5-star McDonald’s All-American freshman phenom when you have another one on the roster  hurts, look at what happened to Bryce Drew at Vanderbilt.  Drew lost Darius Garland early in the year but still had another 5-star freshman phenom in Simi Shittu.  Vanderbilt lost their final 20 games in a row, and Drew was dismissed.  Altman lost superstar Bol Bol early in the year, and the Ducks were counted out.  Altman rallied Oregon and won the Pac-12 Tournament.  Then, they knocked out mid-major darling UC-Irvine to make it back to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years.

Virginia survived a scare against Gardner-Webb, but the Cavaliers righted the ship and stormed back to win by 15, and then the Cavs ousted Oklahoma much more easily in the Round of 32.  On the surface, some may believe that UVA is strictly a half-court possession wonder, the type that usually disappoints in the Big Dance.  This is not so.  The Cavaliers have a double-digit R+T rating, which makes them capable of benefiting from scoring spurts, like they did in 2016, when they made it to the Elite 8 and watched a second half double-digit lead against Syracuse turn into a loss when the Orangemen went on a huge scoring run.

This game looks like the most lopsided in this round.  Virginia has the advantage across the board, and Oregon has not beaten a team this good all year.  The Ducks only played one ranked team in the regular season.  Think of Bol Bol as twice the player Tacko Fall is for Central Florida.  That’s why  Oregon should be happy they made the Sweet 16.

Prediction: Virginia by 12-17 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan St.	61.11	14.0	33.8	74.1	16.4	12.7	12.3
LSU	58.71	3.4	36.5	69.8	15.2	17.6	9.4

The fact that four SEC teams made the Sweet 16, and LSU won the conference championship shows that the Tigers are good enough to keep playing into April, even with acting coach Tony Benford taking over for Will Wade.

On the other side, Michigan State is almost perfect when you look at the resume of a Final Four team.  The Spartans do not force turnovers like most Final Four teams in the past, and they are vulnerable to a team that can pressure them into turnovers.

LSU has the personnel to force MSU out of their normal offense and negate any potential rebounding advantage Sparty has.  This game still looks favorable to Michigan State due to a great difference in True Shooting Percentage Margin.  LSU might not get enough open looks and second chance points to match the inside scoring of Nick Ward and Xavier Tillman combined with the three-point shooting of Cassius Winston.

Prediction: Michigan State by 4 to 9 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
North Carolina	62.05	5.4	34.8	77.7	14.6	16.5	18.9
Auburn	59.91	1.9	32.2	67.8	14.6	21.8	2.7

 

This game should be played at a tempo of 75 possessions per team.  Auburn was the best up-tempo team in the SEC this year, but North Carolina was the best up-tempo team in the ACC.

Can Auburn force North Carolina, namely point guard Coby White to make enough mistakes to keep this game close?  White has been prone to force the issue a bit at times, but in the games against the best pressure man-to-man teams, he did not make enough mistakes to cost Carolina the win, and in several games, his deft handling of the ball was the reason the Tar Heels won.

North Carolina remains the second best team in the tournament according to Bracketnomics, and this game has the potential to get out of hand.  The Tar Heels have a huge advantage on the offensive glass, and this should be the deciding factor.  UNC will score on several consecutive possessions at some point in this game and take a commanding lead that forces Auburn to panic on offense and commit some mistakes of their own.

Prediction: North Carolina by 10-15 points

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Duke	62.61	9.8	35.5	71.0	14.7	17.0	12.1
Virginia Tech	58.20	8.5	29.0	72.9	15.3	19.1	6.1

 

Virginia Tech’s home court advantage in a game with Duke was three points and change, but let’s round it back to 3.  They beat Duke in Blacksburg by five points.  Duke didn’t have Zion Williamson.  Is Zion worth three points more for Duke than his backup?  Of course, he is; he’s worth a lot more than three extra points in Duke’s overall production.

Duke has an exploitable liability, and Central Florida exposed it.  Buzz Williams will do everything to try to force the Blue Devils to beat his squad by not being weak in their perimeter shooting.  UCF had two big guys inside that could force Duke to shoot from the perimeter.  Virginia Tech has one big guy, Kerry Blackshear, who probably cannot stop the Duke inside game.

In my opinion, there are a couple teams that can force Duke to have a better than average perimeter shooting night to beat them, but Virginia Tech is not one of them.

Prediction: Duke by 8 to 13 points

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kentucky	60.44	9.8	36.6	74.7	15.8	16.0	16.2
Houston	55.45	8.3	34.2	74.8	14.0	15.8	14.6

This game could be very interesting in a different way than the Michigan and Texas Tech game.  You get contrasting styles in this contest, and there are many variables, some of which favor the underdog Cougars in this cat fight.

There is a giant variable here, one that is enough to take this game from a relatively safe victory for Kentucky to a toss-up.  Star forward P.J. Washington might play in this game, and he might not be healthy enough.  Even if he plays, he cannot possibly be all that effective.  What bothers me is that he went from a protective boot to a cast, which means the injury was worse than first thought.  He’s going to one of the top foot specialists in the nation, and I think the goal here is to make sure Washington is ready for the NBA Draft.

If Washington does not play in this game, it becomes one where Houston has a 40-45% chance of winning.  If Washington plays sparingly, Kentucky’s chances increase by another 5-10%.  If miraculously Washington can play near full strength for 25 minutes, then the Big Blue win this game going away.

I will select this game based on the assumption that Washington will play but at much less than full strength.  Reid Travis is ready to have a big game for Kentucky now that he is basically 100% at full strength following his injury, and I look for John Calipari to direct his team to play intelligently and take advantage of their muscle advantage.

Prediction: Kentucky but 5-10 points

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Tennessee	117.9	0.0	Iowa	111.4	6.5
North Carolina	121.3	0.0	Washington	109.7	11.6
Duke	122.9	0.0	Central Florida	110.0	12.9
Texas Tech	118.0	0.0	Buffalo	115.2	2.8
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Liberty	107.3	8.2
Virginia	120.8	0.0	Oklahoma	111.4	9.4
Houston	115.3	0.0	Ohio St.	110.2	5.1
Oregon	110.8	0.0	UC Irvine	106.6	4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time	Game	Network	Site
12:10 PM	Tennessee vs. Iowa	CBS	Columbus
2:40 PM	North Carolina vs. Washington	CBS	Columbus
5:15 PM	Duke vs. Central Florida	CBS	Columbia
6:10 PM	Texas Tech vs. Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
7:10 PM	Virginia Tech vs. Liberty	TBS	San Jose
7:45 PM	Virginia vs. Oklahoma	TruTV	Columbia
8:40 PM	Houston vs. Ohio St.	TNT	Tulsa
9:40 PM	Oregon vs. UC-Irvine	TBS	San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 22, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Cincinnati	110.8	1.5	Iowa	111.1	1.2
Ole Miss	110.3	0.0	Oklahoma	110.7	-0.4
Texas Tech	117.8	0.0	Northern Kentucky	104.5	13.3
Kansas St.	112.7	0.0	UC-Irvine	106.2	6.5
Tennessee	118.3	0.0	Colgate	102.8	15.5
Gardner-Webb	99.5	1.0	Virginia	121.1	-20.6
Buffalo	115.0	0.0	Arizona St.	107.9	7.1
Wisconsin	115.1	0.0	Oregon	109.7	5.4
Utah St.	111.3	0.0	Washington	108.8	2.5
Duke	123.1	0.0	North Dakota St.	97.9	25.2
Houston	114.8	0.0	Georgia St.	103.9	10.9
Mississippi St.	113.9	0.0	Liberty	106.7	7.2
North Carolina	121.7	0.0	Iona	97.8	23.9
Virginia Commonwealth	110.7	0.0	Central Florida	109.4	1.3
Iowa St.	114.8	0.0	Ohio St.	109.9	4.9
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Saint Louis	104.1	11.4

 

Today’s Schedule

All Times EDT

TIME	MATCHUP	NETWORK	SITE
12:15 PM	(10) Iowa vs. (7) Cincinnati	CBS	Columbus
12:40 PM	(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Ole Miss	truTV	Columbia
1:30 PM	(14) Northern Kentucky vs. (3) Texas Tech	TNT	Tulsa
2 PM	(13) UC Irvine vs. (4) Kansas State	TBS	San Jose
Approx. 3 PM	(15) Colgate vs. (2) Tennessee	CBS	Columbus
Approx. 3:25 PM	(16) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) Virginia	truTV	Columbia
Approx. 4:15 PM	(11) St. John’s / Arizona State vs. (6) Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
Approx. 4:45 PM	(12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin	TBS	San Jose
6:50 PM	(9) Washington vs. (8) Utah State	TNT	Columbus
7:10 PM	(16) NC Central / North Dakota St. vs. (1) Duke	CBS	Columbia
7:20 PM	(14) Georgia State vs. (3) Houston	TBS	Tulsa
7:27 PM	(12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State	truTV	San Jose
Approx. 9:35 PM	(16) Iona vs. (1) North Carolina	TNT	Columbus
Approx. 9:55 PM	(9) UCF vs. (8) VCU	CBS	Columbia
Approx. 10:05 PM	(11) Ohio State vs. (6) Iowa State	TBS	Tulsa
Approx. 10:12 PM	(13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech	truTV	San Jose

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology For 2019

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Duke	Virginia	Gonzaga	North Carolina
2	Michigan St.	Tennessee	Michigan	Kentucky
3	Houston	Florida St.	Texas Tech	LSU
4	Purdue	Kansas St.	Wisconsin	Kansas
5	Auburn	Villanova	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
6	Buffalo	Mississippi St.	Cincinnati	Marquette
7	Wofford	Maryland	Louisville	Nevada
8	Iowa	Seton Hall	Minnesota	Central Florida
9	Ole Miss	Syracuse	Baylor	Washington
10	Virginia Commonwealth	Utah St.	Florida	Oklahoma
11	Oregon	Ohio St.	Temple/Arizona St.	St. John’s/TCU
12	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.	Vermont
13	Liberty	UC-Irvine	Old Dominion	Montana
14	Saint Louis	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Colgate	Abilene Christian
16	Gardner-Webb	Prairie View A&M	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	N. Dakota St./UNC Central

 

Last Four Byes

Virginia Commonwealth

Florida

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

 

Last Four In

Temple

St. John’s

TCU

Arizona St.

 

First Four Out

North Carolina St.

Belmont

UNC Greensboro

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Indiana

Alabama

Clemson

Texas

 

Bids By Conference

Conference	Bids
Big Ten	8
ACC	7
SEC	7
Big 12	7
Big East	4
AAC	4
Pac-12	3
MWC	2
West Coast	2
Atlantic 10	2
One-Bid Leagues	22

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Saturday, March 16, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Vermont	105.6	3.0	Maryland Baltimore Co.	96.2	12.4
Memphis	107.1	3.0	Houston	115.4	-5.3
Cincinnati	110.3	0.0	Wichita St.	103.9	6.4
Rhode Island	102.0	0.0	St. Bonaventure	102.3	-0.3
Davidson	106.3	0.0	Saint Louis	102.9	3.4
Duke	123.2	0.5	Florida St.	115.0	8.7
Kansas	114.9	1.5	Iowa St.	114.3	2.1
Seton Hall	108.6	0.5	Villanova	113.1	-4.0
Montana	101.6	0.0	Eastern Washington	96.6	5.0
Wisconsin	115.4	0.5	Michigan St.	120.3	-4.4
Minnesota	110.0	0.0	Michigan	118.7	-8.7
UC-Irvine	105.6	0.0	Cal St. Fullerton	99.0	6.6
Old Dominion	103.4	0.0	Western Kentucky	103.3	0.1
Harvard	102.9	0.0	Penn	102.3	0.6
Yale	106.0	2.5	Princeton	99.3	9.2
Buffalo	115.3	0.0	Bowling Green	104.5	10.8
Norfolk St.	94.3	0.0	North Carolina Central	92.3	2.0
San Diego St.	102.7	0.0	Utah St.	108.6	-5.9
Washington	109.5	0.0	Oregon	109.7	-0.2
Abilene Christian	101.1	0.0	New Orleans	94.6	6.5
Florida	111.4	0.0	Auburn	115.0	-3.6
Kentucky	118.0	0.0	Tennessee	118.5	-0.5
UT-Arlington	100.8	0.0	Georgia Southern	95.9	4.9
Georgia St.	103.2	0.0	Texas St.	102.8	0.4
Prairie View A&M	96.5	0.0	Texas Southern	97.1	-0.6
New Mexico St.	108.1	0.0	Grand Canyon	105.1	3.0

 

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

At Vermont

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Vermont (26-6)	3	Maryland-Baltimore Co. (21-12)

 

 

American Athletic Conference
Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Houston	84	Connecticut	45
Memphis	79	Central Florida	55
Cincinnati	82	SMU	74
Wichita St.	80	Temple	74

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Houston (30-2)	5	Memphis (21-12)
2	Cincinnati (26-6)	6	Wichita St. (19-13)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference
Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Rhode Island	75	VCU	70
St. Bonaventure	68	George Mason	57
Davidson	70	Saint Joseph’s	60
Saint Louis	64	Dayton	55

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Rhode Island (18-14)	4	St. Bonaventure (17-15)
2	Davidson (24-8)	6	Saint Louis (21-12)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Florida St.	69	Virginia	59
Duke	74	North Carolina	73

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
5	Florida St. (27-6)	3	Duke (28-5)

 

 

Big 12 Conference
Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Iowa St.	63	Kansas St.	59
Kansas	88	West Virginia	74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
5	Iowa St. (22-11)	3	Kansas (25-8)

 

 

Big East Conference
Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Villanova	71	Xavier	67 ot
Seton Hall	81	Marquette	79

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Villanova (24-9)	3	Seton Hall (20-12)

 

 

Big Sky Conference
Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Montana	78	Weber St.	49
Eastern Washington	77	Southern Utah	61

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Montana (25-8)	3	Eastern Washington (16-17)

 

Big Ten Conference
Site: United Center, Chicago, IL
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Michigan St.	77	Ohio St.	70
Wisconsin	66	Nebraska	62
Minnesota	75	Purdue	73
Michigan	74	Iowa	53

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Michigan St. (26-6)	4	Wisconsin (23-9)
7	Minnesota (21-12)	3	Michigan (27-5)

 

 

Big West Conference
Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
UC-Irvine	75	Long Beach St.	67
Cal St. Fulerton	64	UC Santa Barbara	58

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	UC Irvine (29-5)	3	Cal St. Fullerton (16-16)

 

 

Conference USA
Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Old Dominion	61	UAB	59
Western Kentucky	70	Southern Miss.	59

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Old Dominion (25-8)	2	Western Kentucky (20-13)

 

Ivy League (Ivy Madness)
Site: John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT (Yale)
Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Harvard (17-10)	4	Penn (19-11)
2	Yale (20-7)	3	Princeton (16-11)

 

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)
Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Buffalo	85	Central Michigan	81
Bowling Green	71	Northern Illinois	67

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Buffalo (30-3)	3	Bowling Green (22-11)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference
Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
UNC Central	65	North Carolina A&T	63
Norfolk St.	75	Howard	69

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Norfolk St. (21-12)	3	North Carolina Central (17-15)

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
San Diego St.	65	Nevada	56
Utah St.	85	Fresno St.	60

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
4	San Diego St. (21-11)	2	Utah St. (27-6)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Washington	66	Colorado	61
Oregon	79	Arizona St.	75 ot

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Washington (26-7)	6	Oregon (22-12)

 

 

Southland Conference
Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
New Orleans	79	Sam Houston St.	76
Abilene Christian	69	Southeastern Louisiana	66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	New Orleans (19-12)	2	Abilene Christian (26-6)

 

 

Southeastern Conference
Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Florida	76	LSU	73
Auburn	73	South Carolina	64
Kentucky	73	Alabama	55
Tennessee	83	Mississippi St.	76

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Florida (19-14)	5	Auburn (24-9)
2	Kentucky (27-5)	3	Tennessee (28-4)

 

 

Sun Belt Conference
Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA
Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Georgia Southern	81	Louisiana Monroe	67
Texas St.	79	South Alabama	67

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	UT Arlington (16-15)	3	Georgia Southern (21-11)
1	Georgia St. (22-9)	4	Texas St. (24-8)

 

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference
Site: at Higher Seeds
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Prairie View A&M	81	Grambling	71
Texas Southern	80	Alabama St.	66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Prairie View A&M (22-12)	2	Texas Southern (21-12)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
New Mexico St.	79	UT RGV	72
Grand Canyon	78	New Mexico St.	74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	New Mexico St. (29-4)	3	Grand Canyon (20-12)

 

 

Automatic Bids To Date

Team	Conf	W-L
Liberty	Atlantic Sun	28-6
Gardner-Webb	Big South	23-11
Murray St.	Ohio Valley	27-4
Bradley	Missouri Valley	20-14
Wofford	Southern	29-4
Iona	Metro Atlantic	17-15
Fairleigh-Dickinson	Northeast	20-13
Northern Kentucky	Horizon	26-8
Northeastern	Colonial	23-10
Saint Mary’s	West Coast	22-11
North Dakota St.	Summit	18-15
Colgate	Patriot	24-10

 

The PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Convene

The PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus have gathered (if only electronically) is our bunkers, otherwise known as our man caves and woman caves watching multiple games simultaneously to get better familiar with all the teams still trying to Dance.

Tonight, we will begin putting our opinions together to formulate our final Bracketology selections for Sunday afternoon.  We will publish our initial predicted 68 around 2 PM EDT on Sunday and then a final prediction at the conclusion of the last meaningful conference tournament championship game, if one might affect the seedings.

At the moment, there are games that could wildly swing the bottom of the seed line, affecting who plays in the First Four, and there are a couple of potenial bid-stealers still alive.

Here is our planned schedule for the weekend

Saturday late morning: Bracketology number 1 (Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday morning: Bracketology number 2 (Again, Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday early afternoon: Bracket Gurus Initial Field of 68 Predictions

Sunday late afternoon: Bracket Gurus Final Field of 68 Predictions (if necessary)

Note: The Captain and the Gurus are making their selections trying to predict what the Selection Committee will do and not by using their own opinions of which 68 teams should be in the field.  One of out methods will include trying to predict political biases of the Committee members.  By political, we don’t mean Liberal vs. Conservative.  We mean Power Conference vs. Mid-Major and Low-Major, or in other words, why State U at 18-16 will beat out Tiny Tech at 29-5 that lost in their conference championship game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, March 15, 2019

March 15, 2019
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Virginia	Gonzaga	North Carolina	Duke
2	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Tennessee	LSU
3	Michigan	Purdue	Houston	Texas Tech
4	Florida St.	Wisconsin	Kansas	Kansas St.
5	Mississippi St.	Virginia Tech	Marquette	Nevada
6	Buffalo	Villanova	Maryland	Auburn
7	Wofford	Cincinnati	Iowa St.	Louisville
8	VCU	Iowa	Central Florida	Washington
9	Syracuse	Ole Miss	Baylor	Seton Hall
10	Minnesota	Oklahoma	Ohio St.	Utah St.
11	Temple	Arizona St.	North Carolina St.	TCU/Florida
12	St. John’s/Belmont	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.
13	Liberty	Vermont	UC-Irvine	Old Dominion
14	Montana	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Colgate	Gardner-Webb
16	Sam Houston St.	Prairie View	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	North Dakota St./Norfolk St.

 

Last 4 Bye	Utah St.	Temple	Arizona St.	North Carolina St.
Last 4 In	TCU	Florida	St. John’s	Belmont

 

 

First 4 Out	Alabama	Clemson	Indiana	Furman
Next 4 Out	Nebraska	Texas	UNC Greensboro	Georgetown

 

Conference	Bids
ACC	8
Big Ten	8
SEC	7
Big 12	6
Big East	5
AAC	4
MWC	2
Pac-12	2
West Coast	2
Ohio Valley	2
One-Bid Leagues	22

 

Bid-Stealers Are Alive

There are numerous bid stealers alive in the Power Conference tournaments.

Memphis plays in the AAC Quarterfinals today where they host the tournament

Saint Louis, Dayton, and Davidson are still alive in the Atlantic 10

West Virginia is an upset of Kansas today away from making the Big 12 Finals

Xavier is in the Big East semifinals playing Villanova today

Nebraska is alive in the Big Ten and playing Wisconsin in today’s quarterfinals

Fresno St. and San Diego St.  both play in the Mountain West semifinals today

Oregon and Colorado look like game competitors in the Pac-12 semifinals today

South Carolina begins play in the SEC quarterfinals today, while Alabama must beat Kentucky to stay in the mix as one of the first teams out