The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 12, 2019

2019 FBS Independents Preview

Note: There isn’t much to preview about the 2019 FBS Independents, so today you get a little incite about how these ratings began and how the Independents of football began to see the light about the weaknesses of not having conference affiliation.

This is the 150th year anniversary for college football.  Yours truly vividly remembers the 100th year anniversary in 1969.  That’s the year these ratings were born.  At the time, I was sort of enamored with Ohio State University and Coach Woody Hayes.  He was dedicated to perfecting what he thought was the way to win football.  Having watched the Buckeyes defeat O.J. Simpson and the USC Trojans in the Rose Bowl the season before, I expected Ohio State to challenge the 1944 and 1945 Army teams for best in the history of the game.

On October 11, 1969, Ohio State faced a ranked Michigan State team that had just lost a close game to Notre Dame.  The Buckeyes had begun the season with slaughters over TCU and Washington.  This was the fateful Saturday that led to the creation of the PiRate Ratings.

On that Saturday, Ohio State took care of business by running the Spartans into the ground and winning by more than 30 points.  Then, something incredible happened that night.  My hometown team, the school where multiple family members attended, Vanderbilt hosted Alabama at Dudley Field.  Vanderbilt was 0-3, and ‘Bama was 3-0.  Led by sophomore phenom and future head coach Watson Brown, Vanderbilt beat Alabama 14-10 in the greatest upset of the season.

The following Monday, I went to school and a teacher asked me what I thought about the weekend’s games.  On the playground, when we played touch football, we chose teams.  We called my team “Ohio State,” while the other team called themselves “Penn State,” because Alabama was no longer worthy of being good enough.

There was an argument that day.  Which team was better–Ohio State or Penn State?  Both teams won every game the year before.  Both teams had won every game so far this year, and both teams had just easily defeated ranked teams on that Saturday.

I went home the following day to read the old Nashville Banner newspaper, an afternoon publication.  The AP and UPI top 20 rankings were in the sports pages of that day’s paper.  The entire top 10 featured undefeated teams.  Among the teams besides Ohio State and Penn State were Texas and Arkansas from the Southwest Conference, UCLA and USC from the Pac-8 Conference, and Tennessee, LSU, and Florida from the SEC.  The other team was Missouri, a team that had just creamed Michigan and Nebraska.

I looked at the rankings and then glanced over at the “Litratings.”  The Litratings were a ratings system compiled by Dr. Edward Litkenhous, a famed Vanderbilt engineering professor.  In the days before computers, there were three alternatives to the AP and UPI rankings.  They were Dunkel, Carr, and Litkenhous.  The Nashville Banner carried the Litratings, as Dr. Litkenhous personally delivered his ratings to the paper every week.

I began comparing scores and opponents of the top 10 teams.  It was crude, but I basically started this to show my friends why Ohio State was the best team in college football, and that Penn State was not even as good as any of those undefeated conference teams.

The rest of the season, I happily compiled new top 10 rankings based on my crude mathematical knowledge, and each week through the middle of November, Ohio State was still the best team.  There were just four teams remaining that were unbeaten and untied–Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, and Arkansas.  On that next Saturday, Michigan gave Ohio State a spanking in Ann Arbor.  Seeking revenge for a 50-14 defeat in Columbus the year before, the Wolverines’ defense was superb, and the Buckeyes’  season ended at 8-1 and no chance for a national championship.

Meanwhile, Texas and Penn State slaughtered and shut out their opponents, while Arkansas beat a better quality opponent in SMU.  So, who was the top team in the nation?  My personal ratings said that Penn State was a tad better than Texas and Arkansas.  Once tied USC and once beaten LSU were just a tad behind.

Penn State closed out the regular season with two convincing road victories over mediocre teams, one over rival Pittsburgh and one over North Carolina St.  Arkansas and Texas both easily handled mediocre Southwest Conference teams.

Penn State accepted the Orange Bowl bid for the second year in a row.  They could have accepted a bid to the Cotton Bowl to play the Arkansas-Texas winner, but at the time they had to vote, Ohio State was still undefeated and a win over Michigan would clinch the national title.  The Buckeyes could not play in the Rose Bowl that year, because the Big Ten still did not allow teams to play in Rose Bowls in consecutive seasons.  They would be 9-0 and undisputed national champions with a win over Michigan.

Additionally, this was just six years after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, and a lot of people from outside the South and Southwest thought of Dallas as an outlaw town where the 1960s were not that much different than the 1860s.  Some of the African-American players on the Penn State team did not want to go to Dallas, so the team voted to return to Miami on New Year’s Day.  Their opponent would be 9-1 Missouri, the team that slaughtered Michigan earlier that season.

Did Penn State have a legitimate claim to the national title?  I thought they did.  Their offense was solid but not spectacular, even though they had three running backs that would play in the NFL, including future all-pros Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell.  It was the Nittany Lions defense and special teams that made this team so special.  The defense gave up fewer points than the defense and special teams scored or set up.

It wasn’t the Associated Press, United Press International, Dunkel, Carr, or Litkenhous that made the decision on which team would win the national championship.  President Richard Nixon proclaimed that the winner of the December game between Arkansas and Texas in Fayetteville, Arkansas, would be the national champion.  He even planned to be there in person to present the trophy to the winner.

Until the early 1970’s, it was the norm for the national championship to be awarded before the bowl games.  The bowl games were considered rewards for great seasons and not like postseason play.  So, it wasn’t out of the ordinary for the national champion to be crowned after the conclusion of the regular season.

That first Saturday in December of 1969, the home team Razorbacks quickly scored two touchdowns to lead 14-0.  It looked like Arkansas was going to win its third national title of the 1960s, as they won a piece of the 1964 and 1965 titles in split decisions.  This would be their first consensus championship, and Coach Frank Broyles would probably take over the title of greatest current college coach.

Texas was on the verge of being defeated.  The Longhorns had an 18-game winning streak on the line as well as the national championship.  The fourth quarter started with Arkansas still ahead 14-0, and the Razorback defense had solved the triple option that no other opponents could stop.  Texas quarterback James Street was not your typical wishbone quarterback.  He was a decent passer, and Royal decided that the Longhorns would have to start passing the ball, something the wishbone offense was not meant to do other than the occasional surprise play-action pass.

Street dropped back to pass, while the Arkansas pass rush forced him to scramble to avoid a 10-yard sack.  Somehow, a small pocket opened, and Street took off down the right sideline for a touchdown.  Royal decided to go for two, and a counter option run was successful to make the score 14-8.

With less than five minutes left in the game, and the score still 14-8 in favor of the Razorbacks, Texas was in deep trouble.  Facing a fourth down and three on their side of the 50 yard line, Coach Darrel Royal decided to gamble and go for the first down.  They came out in their wishbone offense, and Arkansas bunched up with nine defenders near the line of scrimmage.  Not only was Royal ready to gamble, he figured that even if the Longhorns powered for the three yards and a first down, they could not keep the ball on  the ground and score the winning touchdown with so little time left.

Royal called for the play-action long bomb off the option fake.  Street faked to his fullback running into the line and continued to option the Arkansas defensive end–for two steps.  Then, he quickly dropped back three steps and fired the ball long and high into the air.  At the other end of the play, receiver Randy Peschel had maybe a half-step on two Arkansas defenders.  The ball came out of the sky into Peschel’s arms inside the Razorback 15 yard line.  Arkansas was stunned.  They were in place to stop all three phases of the triple option and then run the clock out to play LSU in the Cotton Bowl, the team that had upset them in the Cotton Bowl just four years before.  Alas, neither team would spend New Year’s in Dallas.

Texas ran two plays and scored a touchdown on a counter dive.  The extra point put the Longhorns up 15-14 with just over three minutes to play.

The game wasn’t over.  Unlike Texas, Arkansas ran a pro-style offense, and Quarterback Bill Montgomery had a dangerous receiver in Chuck Dicus.  The Razorbacks quickly drove into Longhorn territory.  They needed one more first down to get into legitimate field goal range with a chance to win the game in the final seconds.  Montgomery rolled out to throw toward Dicus, but the toss was a little off target, and Texas intercepted the pass to clinch the game.

The Longhorns were given the trophy by President Nixon.  It appeared that they would now play 9-1 LSU in the Cotton Bowl, and my ratings would actually make LSU a small favorite.

Except it didn’t happen.  After decades of not permitting the football team to play in bowl games, the elders at Notre Dame decided that it was now okay.  LSU was in essence uninvited to the Cotton Bowl, and a weaker Notre Dame team was invited in their place.  Meanwhile, LSU was now shut out of a bowl, as Ole Miss had already accepted the Sugar Bowl bid when it appeared that LSU was Dallas-bound.

In the bowl games, Texas struggled to beat Notre Dame in what was basically a Longhorn home game.  Irish quarterback Joe Theismann shredded the Texas secondary for well over 200 passing yards, and Texas had to come from behind to win.

At the same time, Ole Miss, led by Archie Manning, beat Arkansas in a mild upset in the Sugar Bowl.  The Rebels had ended the season on a hot streak, having also giving Tennessee and LSU their only regular season losses.  Still, the Southwest Conference teams did not look to be as strong as the poll-voters believed.

That evening, Penn State played a Missouri team that averaged over 40 points per game and held the Tigers to one field goal.  They won only 10-3, but the defense intercepted Missouri quarterback Terry McMillan seven times (he threw just six interceptions in the 10 regular season games).

So, who was the best team in 1969?  Was it Penn State or Texas or maybe even another team?  My ratings said that Penn State was the best team, but I also had LSU number two and USC and Texas tied at number three.

Penn State would enjoy undefeated seasons in 1968, 1969, and 1973 and not win the national championship in any of those years.  The 1973 team finished at the top of my ratings.  The poll voters favored conference teams, and except for Notre Dame, an Independent had to win every game convincingly to win a national title.  Syracuse in 1959 dominated all 11 opponents to win only a split decision, as once-beaten Ole Miss from the SEC received more #1 honors that year.

In 1969, the centennial year for college football, 27 major college teams played as independents.  West Virginia finished 10-1 losing only to Penn State, the Mountaineers just barely made the final top 20.  Houston finished 8-2 in the regular season and also just barely made the top 20 prior to bowl season.  The Cougars then totally thrashed Auburn in the Bluebonnet Bowl to earn some respect.

50 years later, there are just six independent football schools left.  Notre Dame can remain an independent and thrive.  The Irish have their exclusive NBC TV contract.  They can steal a bowl bid from the ACC in a sweetheart arrangement, where they can finish leap over any ACC team that has one more win than they have.

BYU left the Mountain West Conference with aspirations of joining the Pac-12 or Big 12, but they were left at the altar.  The Cougar football program has contracted in recent years.  It won’t be a surprise if they try to return to the Mountain West in three or four years.

Army does not need to join a football conference.  Although their two military rivals belong to conferences, the Black Knights can remain independent and survive by doing what they have been doing for the last few years.  Navy actually has regressed since joining the American Athletic Conference.

As for Massachusetts, Liberty, and New Mexico State, they have to wait until the next round of cannibalism from the Power 5 conferences.  If the AAC loses a team or two, UMass and Liberty could be in line to replace them.  If the Mountain West loses a team to Pac-12 or Big 12 expansion, maybe NMSU could get in as a replacement, or maybe if BYU returns to the MWC, the Aggies can be the 14th members.

There is no such entity as a media poll for the FBS Independents.  Therefore, we will show you how 10 of the most reputable computer forecasters believe.  We are not vain enough to include ourselves in these 10 ratings, plus you will see our ratings below as well.

 

10 Computer Gurus Poll of FBS Independents
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Notre Dame 9 59
2 Army 1 51
3 BYU 0 38
4 Liberty 0 32
5 New Mexico St. 0 17
6 Massachusetts 0 13

 

Here are the preseason  PiRate Ratings for the FBS Independents.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 121.4 119.1 121.9 120.8
Army 102.6 102.7 102.4 102.6
BYU 101.8 101.7 102.0 101.8
Liberty 87.9 89.6 88.4 88.6
New Mexico St. 77.8 81.2 77.6 78.8
Massachusetts 73.5 76.8 73.1 74.5
 

 

Indep. Averages 94.2 95.2 94.2 94.5

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
Pos Team Won-Loss
1 Army 11-2
2 Notre Dame 10-2
3 BYU 8-4
4 Liberty 7-5
5 New Mexico St. 2-10
6 Massachusetts 2-10

 

 

Bowl Predictions

Hawaii BYU
Orange Notre Dame
Cotton Army (top G5 team)
 

 

Also Bowl Eligible
Liberty

 

 

Coaches That Could Move to Power 5 Conferences

Jeff Monken, Army

Hugh Freeze, Liberty

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Kelani Sitake, BYU

Doug Martin, New Mexico St.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Ian Book, Notre Dame

Zach Wilson, BYU

Kelvin Hopkins, Army

 

Best Offense

Army

Notre Dame

Liberty

 

Best Defense

Notre Dame

Army

BYU

Coming Tomorrow: The American Athletic Conference–still the #1 Group of 5 conference

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March 6, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Wednesday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Baylor

110.8

3.0

Oklahoma St.

104.2

9.6

Charlotte

92.6

2.5

Rice

95.5

-0.4

Creighton

109.3

3.0

Providence

105.5

6.8

Davidson

105.7

3.0

St. Bonaventure

102.7

6.0

Dayton

107.0

3.0

La Salle

97.0

13.0

DePaul

103.7

3.0

Georgetown

106.4

0.3

Detroit

95.5

1.0

Northern Kentucky

104.3

-7.8

Eastern Illinois

91.8

0.0

UT Martin

92.1

-0.3

Fairleigh Dickinson

96.2

2.5

Wagner

92.4

6.3

Florida

111.1

3.0

LSU

114.3

-0.2

Florida Atlantic

100.8

2.5

Louisiana Tech

101.7

1.6

Fordham

95.0

2.5

George Washington

93.1

4.4

Georgia

104.6

3.0

Missouri

105.1

2.5

Houston Baptist

93.3

2.5

Incarnate Word

85.4

10.4

Long Beach St.

96.0

2.5

UC Riverside

90.4

8.1

Marshall

98.9

3.0

Florida Int’l.

97.8

4.1

Massachusetts

96.2

2.5

Richmond

98.0

0.7

McNeese St.

89.8

2.5

Texas A&M CC

93.9

-1.6

Morehead St.

95.0

0.0

SIU Edwardsville

88.3

6.7

New Mexico

99.0

3.0

Boise St.

101.2

0.8

Nicholls St.

90.4

2.5

Northwestern St.

87.3

5.6

North Carolina St.

111.8

3.0

Georgia Tech

103.6

11.2

Northwestern

106.0

2.5

Ohio St.

110.5

-2.0

Notre Dame

105.2

3.0

Clemson

111.6

-3.4

Oakland

98.6

2.5

Youngstown St.

94.3

6.8

Old Dominion

104.3

3.0

Southern Miss.

103.0

4.3

Robert Morris

94.3

2.5

St. Francis (Bklyn)

93.7

3.1

Rutgers

106.6

2.5

Penn St.

110.3

-1.2

Sacred Heart

95.9

2.5

Long Island

94.1

4.3

Saint Louis

102.6

3.0

Duquesne

99.9

5.7

Sam Houston St.

100.1

3.0

Central Arkansas

90.5

12.6

San Diego St.

102.7

3.0

Fresno St.

106.5

-0.8

San Jose St.

86.3

3.0

Wyoming

90.0

-0.7

Seton Hall

107.5

3.0

Marquette

112.8

-2.3

Southeastern Louisiana

95.5

2.5

New Orleans

94.9

3.1

St. Francis (PA)

95.1

3.0

Bryant

89.4

8.7

Tulane

91.9

2.5

South Florida

104.2

-9.8

UTEP

93.0

3.0

Middle Tennessee

94.8

1.2

Vanderbilt

102.5

2.5

Arkansas

107.8

-2.8

Washington

110.1

3.0

Oregon St.

105.4

7.7

Washington St.

97.6

3.0

Oregon

107.8

-7.2

West Virginia

103.4

3.0

Iowa St.

114.7

-8.3

Western Kentucky

103.1

3.0

UTSA

102.0

4.1

 

Conference Tournaments Update

Big South Conference

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Presbyterian

106

UNC-Asheville

59

Charleston Sou.

71

USC Upstate

52

Hampton

77

Longwood

71

 

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7 (at Campbell)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Radford (20-10)

7

Presbyterian (18-14)

3

Winthrop (18-11)

6

Charleston Southern (16-14)

1

Campbell (19-11)

8

Hampton (15-15)

4

Gardner-Webb (20-11)

5

High Point (16-14)

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)

Wright St.

71

IUPUI

56

Green Bay

82

Illinois-Chicago

77

 

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

3

Oakland (15-16)

6

Youngstown St. (12-19)

2

Northern Kentucky (23-8)

7

Detroit (11-19)

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

St. Francis (PA) (16-13)

8

Bryant (10-19)

2

Fairleigh-Dickinson (17-13)

7

Wagner (13-16)

3

Sacred Heart (15-16)

6

Long Island (15-15)

4

Robert Morris (16-15)

5

St. Francis (Bklyn) (17-14)

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

First Round–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Morehead St. (12-19)

8

SIU Edwardsville (10-20)

6

Eastern Illinois (14-17)

7

UT-Martin (11-18)

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Boston U

71

Loyola (MD)

63

Holy Cross

79

Lafayette

74

 

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Colgate (21-10)

8

Boston U (15-17)

2

Bucknell (19-10)

10

Holy Cross (16-16)

3

Lehigh (19-10)

6

Army (13-18)

4

American (15-14)

5

Navy (11-18)

 

Updated Bracketology Later Today

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings–College Football Final 2018-19

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:19 am

Congratulations go to the Clemson Tigers for their outstanding performance last night in their four touchdown victory over Alabama.  With a quarterback that will be back for at least two more seasons, the Tigers must be considered the early favorite to repeat as champions next year and maybe the year after as well.  In the previous decade, the Indianapolis Colts arranged to have their worst ever season at the right time.  The phrase, “Let’s suck for Luck,” was in vogue in the Sycamore State, as the Colts won the rights to the first pick in the NFL Draft.  The new phrase for 2021 might be, “Be Clever and suck for Trevor,” because Trevor Lawrence looks like he could be another all-time NFL great.

Alabama fans know that their team will be back.  When your coach continually recruits the top class or one of the top five year after year, and he employs more coaches by calling them advisers, Alabama, Inc. will continue to return heavy profits.  Of course, Nick Saban will be offered the chance to return to the NFL, but personally we cannot see Saban leaving Alabama off a game like this.  He wants a 15-0 season with 15 double digit wins, and then we can retire and run his Mercedes-Benz Dealership hands-on by recruiting car buyers.

Many of you reading this today might not realize that this was not Alabama’s worst ever showing in a bowl game being played for the National Championship.  There was a worse outcome, and I watched it 47 years ago in the Orange Bowl.

#1 Nebraska, certainly one of the five best college teams ever, thoroughly destroyed #2 Alabama that year 38-6, and the score could have been much worse.  The Cornhuskers scored a touchdown early in the first quarter on a sustained drive, mixing up power runs, option runs, and play-action passes from their wing-I offense and took a quick 7-0 lead.  Alabama’s potent wishbone offense was greatly slowed by Nebraska’s 5-2 defense that closely resembled the All Big 8 Team.

In the last minute of the first quarter, the game was basically decided.  Alabama punted and chose to punt the ball to All-American Johnny Rodgers.  The future Heisman Trophy winner had broken the hearts of Oklahoma with a long punt return that led the Cornhuskers to victory over the Sooners on Thanksgiving Day in the “Game of the Century.”  On this night, Rodgers fielded the punt on the second bounce at his own 23 yard line.  He quickly scampered to his right to avoid two Alabama defenders, and then he faked two more almost out of their shoes before picking up a wall of blockers down the right sideline.  A few seconds later, Nebraska had a two touchdown lead as the first quarter expired.  Two more second quarter touchdowns made it 28-0 at the half, and it was apparent that the number two and number three teams were Big Eight foes Oklahoma and Colorado.  Coach Bob Devaney played his reserves for most of the second half, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 pasting of the 11-0 Crimson Tide.  Coach Bear Bryant called this Nebraska team the greatest of all time, and he admitted that the Cornhuskers basically toyed with his team.

Here are the Final PiRate Ratings for the 2018-19 season

# Team
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio St.
4 Notre Dame
5 Georgia
6 Oklahoma
7 LSU
8 Michigan
9 Florida
10 Texas A&M
11 Washington
12 Auburn
13 Iowa
14 Washington St.
15 Kentucky
16 Texas
17 Mississippi St.
18 Syracuse
19 Penn St.
20 Stanford
21 Fresno St.
22 Missouri
23 Utah St.
24 West Virginia
25 Utah
26 Central Florida
27 Army
28 Boise St.
29 Northwestern
30 N. Carolina St.
31 Miami
32 S. Carolina
33 Wisconsin
34 Oregon
35 Oklahoma St.
36 Cincinnati
37 Duke
38 Michigan St.
39 Iowa State
40 Virginia
41 Boston College
42 Georgia Tech
43 Pittsburgh
44 T C U
45 Arizona St.
46 Ohio U
47 Appalachian St.
48 Minnesota
49 U A B
50 Wake Forest
51 Purdue
52 California
53 Baylor
54 Texas Tech
55 U S C
56 Vanderbilt
57 Troy
58 BYU
59 Temple
60 Nebraska
61 Kansas St.
62 Florida St.
63 Marshall
64 Ole Miss
65 Indiana
66 Maryland
67 Memphis
68 Virginia Tech
69 Tennessee
70 Buffalo
71 Arizona
72 Georgia Southern
73 Houston
74 Toledo
75 Northern Illinois
76 Nevada
77 Florida Int’l.
78 Tulane
79 Wyoming
80 U C L A
81 N. Texas
82 Colorado
83 Middle Tennessee
84 Miami (O)
85 San Diego St.
86 Eastern Michigan
87 Louisiana Tech
88 Arkansas St.
89 Air Force
90 Florida Atlantic
91 South Florida
92 SMU
93 Western Michigan
94 N. Carolina
95 Kansas
96 Arkansas
97 Navy
98 Southern Miss.
99 Rutgers
100 Illinois
101 UL-Monroe
102 Akron
103 Tulsa
104 Hawaii
105 W. Kentucky
106 Louisiana
107 Colorado St.
108 U N L V
109 Oregon St.
110 Louisville
111 Charlotte
112 New Mexico
113 East Carolina
114 Massachusetts
115 Bowling Green
116 Old Dominion
117 Liberty
118 San Jose St.
119 Ball St.
120 Central Michigan
121 Kent St.
122 Coastal Carolina
123 Georgia St.
124 U T S A
125 South Alabama
126 Texas State
127 N. Mexico St.
128 Rice
129 Connecticut
130 UTEP

Coming Later Today–The PiRate Ratings for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.  

 

 

 

 

December 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 29- January 1 Bowls and NFL Week 17

This is a very busy day here on the PiRate ship, as we will debut our 2018-19 version of PiRate Ratings Basketball later today.

The Land Sharps have been coming down to Earth since their blistering hot November, as December has not been kind to our five friends.  At the same time, the PiRate Ratings picks have continued to win in December, especially the Bowl game Money Lines, where we have experimented with playing the underdog in every game and finding the most favorable underdog Money Line odds.  With underdogs winning all three games on Thursday, the Return on Investment for this system to date is now 64.16%!  This includes a push in the Boston College and Boise State game that was cancelled due to severe lightning.

This Week’s Land Sharp Picks

Cal Gal Tiffany

Nevada -1 vs. Arkansas St.

Central Florida +8 vs. LSU

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Stewed Meat

Mississippi St. -7 vs. Auburn

Penn St. -6 vs. Kentucky

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Dean 615

Florida +6 vs. Michigan

Notre Dame +12.5 vs. Clemson

Oklahoma +15 vs. Alabama

 

Buckeye Michelle

Oklahoma St. +9 vs. Missouri

Ohio State – 6.5 vs. Washington

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Friday Dog 13

Auburn -3 vs. Purdue

Michigan -5.5 vs. Florida

Clemson -12 vs. Notre Dame

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

10-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston Jacksonville 17 Jacksonville
Green Bay Detroit 19 Detroit
New England N.Y. Jets 24.5 N.Y. Jets
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Chicago 14.5 Chicago
Kansas City Oakland 24.5 Oakland
Philadelphia Washington 17.5 Washington
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
L.A. Rams San Francisco 0.5 L.A.Rams
L.A. Chargers Denver 17 Denver
Tennessee Indianapolis 7 Indianapolis
Team Team Total Pick
Houston Jacksonville 50 UNDER
Green Bay Detroit 34.5 OVER
Atlanta Tampa Bay 61.5 UNDER
Team Team Total Pick
New England N.Y. Jets 35 OVER
Chicago Minnesota 30 OVER
Oakland Kansas City 42.5 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
Philadelphia Washington 32 OVER
L.A.Rams San Francisco 38.5 OVER
L.A. Chargers Denver 31.5 OVER
13-point Teasers
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
New Orleans Carolina 21.5 Carolina
Miami Buffalo 8 Buffalo
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 3 Pittsburgh
Baltimore Cleveland 18.5 Cleveland
Team Team Total Pick
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 58.5 UNDER
Cleveland Baltimore 27.5 OVER
Arizona Seattle 25.5 OVER
Indianapolis Tennessee 30.5 OVER
Favorite Underdog Moneyline Pick
Michigan Florida +210 Florida
South Carolina Virginia +185 Virginia
Nevada Arkansas St. +105 Arkansas St.
Clemson Notre Dame +380 Notre Dame
Alabama Oklahoma +490 Oklahoma
Cincinnati Virginia Tech +195 Virginia Tech
Stanford Pittsburgh +195 Pittsburgh
Oregon Michigan St. +120 Michigan St.
Missouri Oklahoma St. +315 Oklahoma St.
Utah Northwestern +255 Northwestern
Texas A&M North Carolina St. +248 North Carolina St.
Mississippi St. Iowa +245 Iowa
LSU Central Florida +260 Central Florida
Penn St. Kentucky +220 Kentucky
Ohio St. Washington +220 Washington
Georgia Texas +410 Texas

 

Remember: Neither the Land Sharps or the PiRates wager real money on the selections presented here at this site.  We recommend you do the same.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back at this site Friday afternoon for our first college basketball report of the season, featuring our top 25, picks of games involving teams in power conferences, and a little something else.

 

December 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Bowls & Playoffs

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:58 am

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday December 15
New Mexico Bowl 2:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Utah St. North Texas 11.6 10.2 12.4
Cure Bowl 2:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Tulane Louisiana 9.3 7.5 7.3
Las Vegas Bowl 3:30 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Fresno St. Arizona St. 2.8 3.7 3.4
Camellia Bowl 5:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern Eastern Michigan -4.7 -4.2 -4.3
New Orleans Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Appalachian St. Middle Tennessee -0.6 -0.7 -0.2
 

 

Tuesday December 18
Boca Raton Bowl 7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
UAB Northern Illinois -0.6 0.7 -0.2
 

 

Wednesday December 19
Frisco Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
San Diego St. Ohio U -8.7 -9.8 -9.4
 

 

Thursday December 20
Gasparilla Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
South Florida Marshall -1.9 -2.8 -3.0
 

 

Friday December 21
Bahamas Bowl 12:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Toledo Florida Int’l. 9.8 7.9 9.3
Idaho Potato Bowl 4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan BYU -11.1 -10.0 -11.2
 

 

Saturday December 22 12:00 PM on ESPN
Birmingham Bowl
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Memphis Wake Forest -2.3 0.7 0.3
Armed Forces Bowl 3:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Army -1.3 -1.5 -1.2
Dollar General Bowl 7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Troy 5.6 5.8 5.1
Hawaii Bowl 10:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Hawaii Louisiana Tech -3.3 -3.6 -4.0
 

 

Wednesday December 26
First Responder Bowl 1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. Boston College -0.3 1.7 0.5
Quick Lane Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Minnesota Georgia Tech -11.4 -11.6 -11.4
Cheez-it Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
TCU California 0.4 1.2 -0.8
 

 

Thursday December 27 1:30 PM on ESPN
Independence Bowl
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Duke Temple 6.4 4.1 5.0
Pinstripe Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Wisconsin Miami (Fla.) -6.5 -7.5 -7.0
Texas Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Baylor Vanderbilt -0.4 -2.1 -1.1
 

 

Friday December 28
Music City Bowl 1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Auburn Purdue 6.8 7.2 8.4
Camping World Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse West Virginia 1.0 0.8 1.2
Arizona Bowl 5:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Nevada Arkansas St. 3.6 2.2 1.6
Alamo Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Washington St. -3.3 -3.9 -3.6
 

 

Saturday December 29
Peach Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Florida Michigan -9.7 -9.9 -9.6
Belk Bowl 12:00 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
South Carolina Virginia 5.9 4.8 6.6
Cotton Bowl 4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Clemson Notre Dame 12.6 12.9 14.3
Orange Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Alabama Oklahoma 19.2 18.7 20.8
 

 

Monday December 31
Redbox Bowl 3:00 PM on Fox
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Oregon Michigan St. -0.8 1.0 0.4
Military Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Tech Cincinnati 1.9 -0.2 1.0
Sun Bowl 2:00 PM on CBS
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Stanford Pittsburgh 5.3 4.2 6.1
Liberty Bowl 3:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Missouri Oklahoma St. 12.0 12.1 13.1
Holiday Bowl 7:00 PM on FS1
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Utah Northwestern 6.0 6.1 6.7
Gator Bowl 7:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Texas A&M -2.9 -2.7 -4.0
 

 

Tuesday January 1
Outback Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN2
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa Mississippi St. -7.5 -7.8 -9.3
Citrus Bowl 1:00 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Kentucky Penn St. -6.7 -5.6 -6.5
Fiesta Bowl 1:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
LSU Central Florida 2.9 1.5 3.0
Rose Bowl 5:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio St. Washington 6.9 7.1 6.6
Sugar Bowl 8:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Texas 14.9 14.3 17.1
 

 

Monday January 7
National Championship Game 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Bama or Okla. Clem or N. Dame

For those that need to know–these ratings include the list of star players that are sitting out their bowl so as not to risk injury prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.  For example, Will Grier will not play for West Virginia, and that is enough to switch the Mountaineers from favorite to underdog.  This includes a list through Saturday, December 9.

NOTE:  The PiRate Ratings will commence with college basketball coverage as soon as all the major conference teams have played their tenth game.  Our rating is meaningless until every team has played 10 games.

Once again, we have combined all three of our sub-ratings into one more accurate rating.  We will issue spreads on weekend games through the conference tournaments and then spreads on the conference tournament games.

Additionally, starting in Mid-January, we will see the return of our Bracketology Gurus, who in two years of existence have gotten all 68 teams in the tournament one year and 67 of the 68 teams in the other.  We hand-picked 12 not-so-angry men that love college basketball and devote about the same amount of time in analyzing college basketball data as we analyze Major League Baseball.

 

 

December 2, 2018

Final Bowl Projections +Army-Navy

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Tulane Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. * California
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Appalachian St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Middle Tennessee
Frisco AAC At-Large Memphis [San Diego St.]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] Southern Miss.
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo * Florida Int’l. *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Virginia Tech]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech * Hawaii *
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Purdue
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Georgia Tech [Western Michigan]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Auburn
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Pittsburgh Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington St.
Belk ACC SEC Virginia South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Wake Forest
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) Stanford
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Vanderbilt
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Utah
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Texas A&M
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Fiesta At-large At-large LSU Michigan
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington *
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Oklahoma
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
* Team has already accepted this bid

 

Saturday December 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Army Navy 14.6 13.3 14.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0
2 Clemson 138.9 136.8 139.7 138.5
3 Georgia 128.9 126.7 130.3 128.6
4 Ohio St. 127.1 125.4 127.4 126.6
5 Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5
6 Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2
7 Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1
8 Washington 122.7 120.8 123.3 122.3
9 Oklahoma 121.8 120.6 121.8 121.4
10 Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9
11 Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4
12 L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6
13 Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8
14 West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
15 Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4
16 Utah 116.4 114.9 116.6 116.0
17 Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3
18 Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2
19 Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8
20 Central Florida 114.2 114.7 114.9 114.6
21 Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4
22 Stanford 114.7 112.6 114.9 114.1
23 Texas 114.0 112.4 113.2 113.2
24 N. Carolina St. 113.2 112.4 112.6 112.7
25 S. Carolina 113.1 111.9 113.0 112.7
26 Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6
27 Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2
28 Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1
29 Fresno St. 112.0 111.6 112.2 111.9
30 Iowa State 112.5 110.8 111.9 111.7
31 Boise St. 111.3 111.1 111.6 111.3
32 Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3
33 Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1
34 Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7
35 Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4
36 Northwestern 110.4 108.8 109.9 109.7
37 Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6
38 Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3
39 Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0
40 Pittsburgh 109.4 108.4 108.8 108.9
41 Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5
42 Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2
43 California 108.1 106.0 107.9 107.3
44 U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3
45 Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0
46 Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9
47 Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9
48 Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8
49 Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6
50 T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6
51 Memphis 104.5 105.7 105.3 105.2
52 Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8
53 Virginia Tech 104.6 103.9 104.2 104.2
54 Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2
55 Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0
56 Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4
57 Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3
58 Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1
59 Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9
60 Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3
61 Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2
62 Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7
63 Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6
64 BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4
65 Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3
66 Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9
67 N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0
69 U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0
70 Buffalo 99.0 100.8 100.0 99.9
71 Appalachian St. 98.3 100.1 99.7 99.4
72 Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5
73 Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5
74 Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7
75 Northern Illinois 96.8 97.9 97.3 97.3
76 Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3
77 U A B 96.2 98.6 97.1 97.3
78 Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0
79 Middle Tennessee 95.9 97.8 96.9 96.9
80 N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5
81 Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9
82 Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8
83 Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6
84 Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9
85 Marshall 93.9 96.2 94.6 94.9
86 Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8
87 San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
88 SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7
89 Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1
90 Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4
91 Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3
92 Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4
93 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0
94 South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8
95 Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7
96 Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9
97 Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7
98 Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6
99 Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5
100 Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4
101 Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1
102 UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4
103 Akron 85.8 86.7 85.5 86.0
104 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3
105 Louisiana 83.7 86.0 85.4 85.0
106 Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7
107 U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5
108 Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4
109 Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3
110 Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0
111 New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6
112 Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6
113 East Carolina 81.9 81.9 81.3 81.7
114 Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5
115 Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9
116 Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8
117 Liberty 80.9 80.4 80.9 80.7
118 San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5
119 Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5
120 Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7
121 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3
122 Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8
123 Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1
124 U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0
125 South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1
126 Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7
127 N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8
128 Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6
129 Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.2 114.7 114.9 114.6 8-0 12-0
Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8 7-1 8-4
Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3 6-2 10-2
South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8 3-5 7-5
East Carolina 81.9 81.9 81.3 81.7 1-7 3-9
Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0 0-8 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.5 105.7 105.3 105.2 5-3 8-5
Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3 5-3 8-4
SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7 4-4 5-7
Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 5-3 6-6
Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9 2-6 3-9
Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4 2-6 3-9
AAC Averages 94.7 95.3 94.7 94.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 138.9 136.8 139.7 138.5 8-0 13-0
N. Carolina St. 113.2 112.4 112.6 112.7 5-3 9-3
Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1 6-2 9-3
Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7 4-4 7-5
Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6 3-5 6-6
Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9 3-5 5-7
Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3 0-8 2-10
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2 4-4 7-5
Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6 5-3 7-5
Pittsburgh 109.4 108.4 108.8 108.9 6-2 7-6
Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5 3-5 7-5
Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9 4-4 7-5
Virginia Tech 104.6 103.9 104.2 104.2 4-4 6-6
N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5 1-7 2-9
ACC Averages 109.3 108.1 108.7 108.7
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.8 120.6 121.8 121.4 8-1 12-1
West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6 6-3 8-3
Texas 114.0 112.4 113.2 113.2 7-2 9-4
Iowa State 112.5 110.8 111.9 111.7 6-3 8-4
Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0 3-6 6-6
Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0 3-6 5-7
T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6 4-5 6-6
Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2 3-6 5-7
Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1 4-5 6-6
Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7 1-8 3-9
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.1 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 127.1 125.4 127.4 126.6 8-1 12-1
Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5 8-1 10-2
Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4 6-3 9-3
Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1 5-4 7-5
Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6 3-6 5-7
Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9 2-7 5-7
Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5 0-9 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4 5-4 8-4
Northwestern 110.4 108.8 109.9 109.7 8-1 8-5
Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3 5-4 6-6
Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2 5-4 7-5
Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8 3-6 4-8
Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2 3-6 6-6
Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1 2-7 4-8
Big Ten Averages 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Middle Tennessee 95.9 97.8 96.9 96.9 7-1 8-5
Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9 3-5 5-7
Marshall 93.9 96.2 94.6 94.9 6-2 8-4
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0 6-2 8-4
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3 2-6 3-9
Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0 4-4 5-7
Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8 2-6 4-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 96.2 98.6 97.1 97.3 7-1 10-3
N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5 5-3 9-3
Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7 5-3 7-5
Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6 4-4 6-5
U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0 2-6 3-9
Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6 1-7 2-11
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7 1-7 1-11
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2 x 12-0
Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4 x 9-2
BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4 x 6-6
Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5 x 4-8
Liberty 80.9 80.4 80.9 80.7 x 6-6
N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8 x 3-9
Indep. Averages 94.1 94.3 94.2 94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0 6-2 8-4
Buffalo 99.0 100.8 100.0 99.9 7-1 10-3
Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0 6-2 6-6
Akron 85.8 86.7 85.5 86.0 2-6 4-8
Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9 2-6 3-9
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0 5-3 7-5
Northern Illinois 96.8 97.9 97.3 97.3 6-2 8-5
Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8 5-3 7-5
Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7 5-3 7-5
Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5 3-5 4-8
Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7 0-8 1-11
MAC Averages 90.3 91.7 90.8 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.3 111.1 111.6 111.3 7-1 10-3
Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4 7-1 10-2
Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3 4-4 6-6
Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9 3-5 5-7
Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7 2-6 3-9
New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6 1-7 3-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.0 111.6 112.2 111.9 7-1 11-2
Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8 5-3 7-5
San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7 4-4 7-5
U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5 2-6 4-8
Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6 5-3 8-5
San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5 1-7 1-11
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.7 120.8 123.3 122.3 7-2 10-3
Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3 7-2 10-2
Stanford 114.7 112.6 114.9 114.1 6-3 8-4
Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3 5-4 8-4
California 108.1 106.0 107.9 107.3 4-5 7-5
Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4 1-8 2-10
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.4 114.9 116.6 116.0 6-3 9-4
Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6 5-4 7-5
U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3 4-5 5-7
Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7 4-5 5-7
U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0 3-6 3-9
Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5 2-7 5-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.3 107.5 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.7 130.3 128.6 7-1 11-2
Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9 4-4 8-4
Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8 5-3 9-3
S. Carolina 113.1 111.9 113.0 112.7 4-4 7-5
Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2 5-3 9-3
Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9 3-5 6-6
Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5 2-6 5-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0 8-0 13-0
Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1 4-4 8-4
L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6 5-3 9-3
Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8 3-5 7-5
Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4 5-3 8-4
Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3 1-7 5-7
Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6 0-8 2-10
SEC Averages 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.3 100.1 99.7 99.4 7-1 10-2
Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4 7-1 9-3
Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4 6-2 9-3
Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8 2-6 5-7
Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3 5-3 8-4
UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4 4-4 6-6
Louisiana 83.7 86.0 85.4 85.0 5-3 7-6
South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1 2-6 3-9
Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7 1-7 3-9
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.7
2 B12 109.6 108.1 108.9 108.9
3 ACC 109.3 108.1 108.7 108.7
4 BTEN 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
5 PAC12 107.6 106.3 107.5 107.1
6 AAC 94.7 95.3 94.7 94.9
7 IND 94.1 94.3 94.2 94.2
8 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
9 MAC 90.3 91.7 90.8 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 13

There are a bevy of interesting games with something on the line this week. Playoff games are on the line, bowl eligibility is on the line, and a few coaching jobs are on the line as Rivalry Week returns.
If you are a fan of a 5-6 team this week, you better hope that they win, because there is 0.01% chance or 1 in 10,000 that a bowl will have to take a team that is worse than 6-6. As of today, 71 teams are now bowl eligible. Three games this week will pit teams with identical 5-6 records, so three more are guaranteed to become bowl eligible, bringing the total to 74. There needs to be four more teams that will need one more win, and there are an additional 16 teams that have a chance to do so. The chances that 13 of these 16 teams lose their final game are less than the chances of the San Diego Padres facing the Chicago White Sox in the 2019 World Series.
Below, we take another look at each conference so you can determine which games you want to watch this week, or if you’d rather go shopping on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. You really should spend a few bucks with a locally owned small business this Saturday. We recommend our favorite jewelry artist, Marjorie Miller of Marjorie Miller Designs right here in the Music City at Beautiful Gifts for Her

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Northern Illinois -6.5 -6.0 -6.2
Miami (O) Ball St. 17.9 17.6 20.4

 

Thursday November 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Air Force Colorado St. 14.7 14.6 15.4
Ole Miss Mississippi St. -17.4 -16.1 -18.1

 

Friday November 23
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio U Akron 19.3 19.6 20.6
Cincinnati East Carolina 17.8 19.3 18.3
Kent St. Eastern Michigan -14.7 -15.2 -15.4
Bowling Green Buffalo -13.3 -14.5 -14.3
Iowa Nebraska 17.0 16.3 17.2
Kansas Texas -13.8 -13.8 -14.7
Missouri Arkansas 24.8 25.6 26.8
South Alabama Coastal Carolina -0.3 -1.0 -0.6
Toledo Central Michigan 19.6 18.8 19.5
South Florida Central Florida -21.0 -20.0 -21.5
Oregon St. Oregon -20.9 -22.8 -22.4
Memphis Houston 3.1 3.9 3.7
Virginia Tech Virginia -0.6 -2.1 -1.0
West Virginia Oklahoma -1.0 -0.7 -1.4
Washington St. Washington -1.6 -0.4 -2.1

 

Saturday November 24
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 6.0 5.0 5.5
Connecticut Temple -30.1 -29.9 -31.6
Louisville Kentucky -21.4 -20.6 -22.4
Clemson South Carolina 28.8 27.6 30.1
Michigan St. Rutgers 29.0 28.0 29.5
Georgia St. Georgia Southern -12.2 -12.3 -12.7
Florida Int’l. Marshall -2.1 -1.1 -2.5
Boston College Syracuse 7.6 6.8 8.0
Ohio St. Michigan -3.5 -4.2 -4.3
Northwestern Illinois 24.9 23.8 26.2
Georgia Georgia Tech 15.5 14.1 17.1
Duke Wake Forest 11.7 11.5 12.8
Wisconsin Minnesota 14.3 13.3 14.3
North Carolina North Carolina St. -11.6 -11.6 -11.2
Louisiana Tech Western Kentucky 12.4 11.6 12.4
Rice Old Dominion -13.1 -13.6 -14.0
UTEP Southern Miss. -13.3 -13.4 -14.0
Liberty New Mexico St. 11.0 8.6 11.4
Boise St. Utah St. 3.9 2.2 3.1
Utah BYU 17.8 15.8 17.6
Appalachian St. Troy 9.5 10.1 9.6
New Mexico Wyoming -8.5 -7.9 -9.0
Middle Tennessee UAB -2.1 -2.6 -1.8
California Colorado 12.9 10.6 12.8
UCLA Stanford -11.9 -10.1 -13.9
Vanderbilt Tennessee 4.3 3.6 4.8
TCU Oklahoma St. -2.2 -2.1 -3.7
Florida St. Florida -4.9 -4.5 -6.4
Penn St. Maryland 16.1 14.9 16.3
Baylor Texas Tech -7.0 -7.3 -6.2
Fresno St. San Jose St. 36.9 35.3 37.9
Iowa St. Kansas St. 11.8 11.5 12.3
Texas A&M LSU -1.4 -1.5 -1.7
Indiana Purdue -6.6 -6.0 -6.4
Tulane Navy 6.9 5.5 6.9
UL-Monroe Louisiana 5.3 3.7 4.6
Tulsa SMU -2.9 -2.9 -2.3
Florida Atlantic Charlotte 20.3 19.1 19.9
Texas St. Arkansas St. -13.8 -12.8 -15.0
UTSA North Texas -22.5 -20.9 -22.5
USC Notre Dame -17.3 -16.7 -17.8
Alabama Auburn 25.4 24.8 25.5
UNLV Nevada -13.3 -12.5 -13.4
San Diego St. Hawaii 20.3 18.8 21.5
Arizona Arizona St. -7.2 -7.3 -6.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 129.1 127.9 129.8 128.9
4 Georgia 127.8 125.3 129.0 127.3
5 Notre Dame 126.9 124.6 126.2 125.9
6 Mississippi St. 122.5 120.7 123.6 122.3
7 Ohio St. 122.6 120.6 122.4 121.9
8 Oklahoma 121.4 120.0 121.1 120.8
9 Washington 120.6 118.4 120.9 119.9
10 Missouri 119.8 118.3 120.8 119.6
11 L S U 117.9 117.0 118.7 117.9
12 Iowa 118.0 116.1 117.6 117.2
13 Auburn 117.1 116.0 118.6 117.2
14 West Virginia 117.4 116.3 116.7 116.8
15 Utah 116.9 115.5 117.5 116.7
16 Washington St. 117.0 116.0 116.8 116.6
17 Penn St. 117.4 114.9 116.9 116.4
18 Texas 114.9 113.5 114.6 114.3
19 Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.3 114.2
20 Stanford 114.8 112.5 115.0 114.1
21 Boston College 114.8 112.6 114.5 114.0
22 Texas A&M 114.0 113.0 114.5 113.8
23 Michigan St. 114.6 112.5 113.9 113.7
24 Miami 114.3 112.7 113.6 113.6
25 Georgia Tech 113.7 112.7 113.3 113.3
26 Fresno St. 113.3 112.7 113.5 113.2
27 Iowa State 113.8 112.2 113.4 113.1
28 N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.5 112.7 112.8
29 Florida 112.8 111.1 113.3 112.4
30 S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.5 111.4
31 Northwestern 111.8 110.3 111.8 111.3
32 Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3
33 Wisconsin 112.1 109.7 111.4 111.1
34 Boise St. 110.9 110.6 111.2 110.9
35 Utah St. 110.0 111.4 111.1 110.8
36 Pittsburgh 110.8 110.2 110.6 110.6
37 Kentucky 110.5 109.2 110.3 110.0
38 Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9
39 Oklahoma St. 110.3 108.8 110.3 109.8
40 Syracuse 110.2 108.9 109.5 109.5
41 Purdue 110.0 108.2 109.6 109.3
42 Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2
43 Texas Tech 108.8 107.3 107.6 107.9
44 California 108.3 106.2 108.3 107.6
45 Virginia 106.3 106.4 105.7 106.1
46 U S C 106.5 104.9 105.4 105.6
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.6 104.9 105.1
48 T C U 105.6 104.2 104.1 104.6
49 Temple 103.9 104.1 104.5 104.2
50 Kansas St. 104.5 103.2 103.6 103.8
51 Ohio U 103.0 104.2 103.9 103.7
52 Maryland 104.3 103.0 103.6 103.6
53 Ole Miss 103.7 103.2 104.0 103.6
54 Vanderbilt 103.5 103.4 103.7 103.6
55 Memphis 102.8 104.1 103.7 103.5
56 Nebraska 104.1 102.9 103.4 103.4
57 Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4
58 Virginia Tech 104.2 102.8 103.2 103.4
59 Houston 102.7 103.2 102.9 102.9
60 Cincinnati 100.9 102.4 101.2 101.5
61 Arizona 101.8 100.4 102.1 101.4
62 Wake Forest 102.5 100.7 100.7 101.3
63 BYU 100.6 101.3 101.4 101.1
64 Baylor 101.8 100.1 101.3 101.1
65 Indiana 101.4 100.3 101.2 101.0
66 Tennessee 100.8 101.3 100.4 100.8
67 N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9
68 Appalachian St. 98.6 100.6 100.2 99.8
69 U C L A 100.4 99.9 98.7 99.6
70 Minnesota 100.3 98.9 99.6 99.6
71 U A B 98.2 100.6 99.0 99.3
72 Buffalo 98.0 100.0 99.3 99.1
73 Colorado 98.4 98.6 98.5 98.5
74 Toledo 97.6 99.0 97.6 98.1
75 Northern Illinois 97.5 98.5 97.9 98.0
76 N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7
77 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
78 Kansas 98.1 96.7 96.9 97.2
79 San Diego St. 96.8 96.9 97.3 97.0
80 Arkansas 98.0 95.6 97.0 96.9
81 Miami (O) 95.5 97.3 97.7 96.8
82 Nevada 96.4 96.5 96.4 96.4
83 Air Force 95.9 96.5 96.3 96.2
84 Eastern Michigan 95.4 96.9 95.9 96.1
85 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
86 Wyoming 95.4 95.7 95.3 95.4
87 Middle Tennessee 93.6 95.5 94.7 94.6
88 SMU 94.8 94.4 94.0 94.4
89 Tulane 93.3 93.8 93.2 93.4
90 Troy 91.5 93.0 93.0 92.5
91 Louisiana Tech 91.5 93.5 92.0 92.3
92 South Florida 91.5 92.9 91.3 91.9
93 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.2 90.3 91.0
94 Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.5 90.9
95 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.7 90.5 90.7
96 Western Michigan 88.5 90.0 89.2 89.3
97 Tulsa 89.4 89.1 89.2 89.2
98 Navy 88.4 90.2 88.3 89.0
99 Rutgers 88.6 87.5 87.5 87.9
100 Illinois 88.5 87.9 87.2 87.9
101 Southern Miss. 85.9 89.0 86.5 87.2
102 Louisville 87.6 87.0 86.4 87.0
103 UL-Monroe 86.5 87.2 87.2 87.0
104 Akron 85.7 86.6 85.2 85.9
105 East Carolina 85.6 85.6 85.4 85.5
106 Oregon St. 86.2 84.2 85.2 85.2
107 New Mexico 84.4 85.3 83.7 84.5
108 Old Dominion 82.9 86.1 82.8 84.0
109 Louisiana 82.7 85.0 84.1 83.9
110 Colorado St. 83.2 83.9 82.9 83.3
111 W. Kentucky 81.6 84.4 82.0 82.7
112 Bowling Green 82.1 83.0 82.5 82.5
113 U N L V 81.6 82.5 81.5 81.9
114 Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5
115 Central Michigan 80.5 82.6 80.7 81.3
116 Hawaii 80.5 82.1 79.7 80.8
117 Ball St. 80.1 82.2 79.8 80.7
118 Liberty 80.6 79.9 80.8 80.5
119 Charlotte 79.2 81.7 80.0 80.3
120 Kent St. 78.7 79.7 78.5 79.0
121 San Jose St. 78.9 79.9 78.1 79.0
122 Coastal Carolina 76.1 78.4 76.6 77.0
123 Georgia St. 76.2 77.9 76.3 76.8
124 Texas State 74.1 76.6 74.5 75.1
125 South Alabama 73.3 74.9 73.5 73.9
126 U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8
127 N. Mexico St. 72.1 73.8 71.9 72.6
128 Connecticut 71.8 72.2 70.9 71.6
129 U T E P 70.6 73.7 70.6 71.6
130 Rice 67.8 70.5 66.8 68.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.3 114.2 7-0 10-0
Temple 103.9 104.1 104.5 104.2 6-1 7-4
Cincinnati 100.9 102.4 101.2 101.5 5-2 9-2
South Florida 91.5 92.9 91.3 91.9 3-4 7-4
East Carolina 85.6 85.6 85.4 85.5 1-6 3-7
Connecticut 71.8 72.2 70.9 71.6 0-7 1-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 102.8 104.1 103.7 103.5 4-3 7-4
Houston 102.7 103.2 102.9 102.9 5-2 8-3
SMU 94.8 94.4 94.0 94.4 4-3 5-6
Tulane 93.3 93.8 93.2 93.4 4-3 5-6
Tulsa 89.4 89.1 89.2 89.2 1-6 2-9
Navy 88.4 90.2 88.3 89.0 2-5 3-8
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 8-0 11-0
Boston College 114.8 112.6 114.5 114.0 4-3 7-4
N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.5 112.7 112.8 4-3 7-3
Syracuse 110.2 108.9 109.5 109.5 5-2 8-3
Florida St. 105.8 104.6 104.9 105.1 3-5 5-6
Wake Forest 102.5 100.7 100.7 101.3 2-5 5-6
Louisville 87.6 87.0 86.4 87.0 0-8 2-9
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 114.3 112.7 113.6 113.6 3-4 6-5
Georgia Tech 113.7 112.7 113.3 113.3 5-3 7-4
Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3 3-4 7-4
Pittsburgh 110.8 110.2 110.6 110.6 6-1 7-4
Virginia 106.3 106.4 105.7 106.1 4-3 7-4
Virginia Tech 104.2 102.8 103.2 103.4 3-4 4-6
N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9 1-6 2-8
ACC Averages 109.7 108.4 109.1 109.0
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.4 120.0 121.1 120.8 7-1 10-1
West Virginia 117.4 116.3 116.7 116.8 6-2 8-2
Texas 114.9 113.5 114.6 114.3 6-2 8-3
Iowa State 113.8 112.2 113.4 113.1 5-3 6-4
Oklahoma St. 110.3 108.8 110.3 109.8 3-5 6-5
Texas Tech 108.8 107.3 107.6 107.9 3-5 5-6
T C U 105.6 104.2 104.1 104.6 3-5 5-6
Kansas St. 104.5 103.2 103.6 103.8 3-5 5-6
Baylor 101.8 100.1 101.3 101.1 3-5 5-6
Kansas 98.1 96.7 96.9 97.2 1-7 3-8
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 129.1 127.9 129.8 128.9 8-0 10-1
Ohio St. 122.6 120.6 122.4 121.9 7-1 10-1
Penn St. 117.4 114.9 116.9 116.4 5-3 8-3
Michigan St. 114.6 112.5 113.9 113.7 4-4 6-5
Maryland 104.3 103.0 103.6 103.6 3-5 5-6
Indiana 101.4 100.3 101.2 101.0 2-6 5-6
Rutgers 88.6 87.5 87.5 87.9 0-8 1-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 118.0 116.1 117.6 117.2 4-4 7-4
Northwestern 111.8 110.3 111.8 111.3 7-1 7-4
Wisconsin 112.1 109.7 111.4 111.1 5-3 7-4
Purdue 110.0 108.2 109.6 109.3 4-4 5-6
Nebraska 104.1 102.9 103.4 103.4 3-5 4-7
Minnesota 100.3 98.9 99.6 99.6 2-6 5-6
Illinois 88.5 87.9 87.2 87.9 2-6 4-7
Big Ten Averages 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 3-4 5-6
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 5-2 7-3
Middle Tennessee 93.6 95.5 94.7 94.6 6-1 7-4
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.2 90.3 91.0 6-1 8-3
Old Dominion 82.9 86.1 82.8 84.0 2-5 4-7
W. Kentucky 81.6 84.4 82.0 82.7 1-6 2-9
Charlotte 79.2 81.7 80.0 80.3 3-4 4-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 98.2 100.6 99.0 99.3 7-0 9-2
N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7 4-3 8-3
Louisiana Tech 91.5 93.5 92.0 92.3 5-2 7-4
Southern Miss. 85.9 89.0 86.5 87.2 3-4 5-5
U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8 2-5 3-8
U T E P 70.6 73.7 70.6 71.6 1-6 1-10
Rice 67.8 70.5 66.8 68.4 0-7 1-11
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 126.9 124.6 126.2 125.9 x 11-0
Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4 x 9-2
BYU 100.6 101.3 101.4 101.1 x 6-5
Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5 x 4-8
Liberty 80.6 79.9 80.8 80.5 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.1 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-8
Indep. Averages 94.0 94.3 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 103.0 104.2 103.9 103.7 5-2 7-4
Buffalo 98.0 100.0 99.3 99.1 6-1 9-2
Miami (O) 95.5 97.3 97.7 96.8 5-2 5-6
Akron 85.7 86.6 85.2 85.9 2-5 4-6
Bowling Green 82.1 83.0 82.5 82.5 2-5 3-8
Kent St. 78.7 79.7 78.5 79.0 1-6 2-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.6 99.0 97.6 98.1 4-3 6-5
Northern Illinois 97.5 98.5 97.9 98.0 6-1 7-4
Eastern Michigan 95.4 96.9 95.9 96.1 4-3 6-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.0 89.2 89.3 4-3 6-5
Central Michigan 80.5 82.6 80.7 81.3 0-7 1-10
Ball St. 80.1 82.2 79.8 80.7 3-4 4-7
MAC Averages 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 110.9 110.6 111.2 110.9 6-1 9-2
Utah St. 110.0 111.4 111.1 110.8 7-0 10-1
Air Force 95.9 96.5 96.3 96.2 2-5 4-7
Wyoming 95.4 95.7 95.3 95.4 3-4 5-6
New Mexico 84.4 85.3 83.7 84.5 1-6 3-8
Colorado St. 83.2 83.9 82.9 83.3 2-5 3-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 113.3 112.7 113.5 113.2 6-1 9-2
San Diego St. 96.8 96.9 97.3 97.0 4-3 7-4
Nevada 96.4 96.5 96.4 96.4 5-2 7-4
U N L V 81.6 82.5 81.5 81.9 1-6 3-8
Hawaii 80.5 82.1 79.7 80.8 4-3 7-5
San Jose St. 78.9 79.9 78.1 79.0 1-6 1-10
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 120.6 118.4 120.9 119.9 6-2 8-3
Washington St. 117.0 116.0 116.8 116.6 7-1 10-1
Stanford 114.8 112.5 115.0 114.1 4-3 6-4
Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2 4-4 7-4
California 108.3 106.2 108.3 107.6 3-4 6-4
Oregon St. 86.2 84.2 85.2 85.2 1-7 2-9
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.9 115.5 117.5 116.7 6-3 8-3
Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9 4-4 6-5
U S C 106.5 104.9 105.4 105.6 4-5 5-6
Arizona 101.8 100.4 102.1 101.4 4-4 5-6
U C L A 100.4 99.9 98.7 99.6 3-5 3-8
Colorado 98.4 98.6 98.5 98.5 2-6 5-6
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 127.8 125.3 129.0 127.3 7-1 10-1
Missouri 119.8 118.3 120.8 119.6 3-4 7-4
Florida 112.8 111.1 113.3 112.4 5-3 8-3
S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.5 111.4 4-4 6-4
Kentucky 110.5 109.2 110.3 110.0 5-3 8-3
Vanderbilt 103.5 103.4 103.7 103.6 2-5 5-6
Tennessee 100.8 101.3 100.4 100.8 2-5 5-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0 7-0 11-0
Mississippi St. 122.5 120.7 123.6 122.3 3-4 7-4
L S U 117.9 117.0 118.7 117.9 5-2 9-2
Auburn 117.1 116.0 118.6 117.2 3-4 7-4
Texas A&M 114.0 113.0 114.5 113.8 4-3 7-4
Ole Miss 103.7 103.2 104.0 103.6 1-6 5-6
Arkansas 98.0 95.6 97.0 96.9 0-7 2-9
SEC Averages 114.4 113.2 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.6 100.6 100.2 99.8 6-1 8-2
Troy 91.5 93.0 93.0 92.5 7-0 9-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.7 90.5 90.7 5-2 8-3
Coastal Carolina 76.1 78.4 76.6 77.0 2-5 5-6
Georgia St. 76.2 77.9 76.3 76.8 1-6 2-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.5 90.9 4-3 7-4
UL-Monroe 86.5 87.2 87.2 87.0 4-3 6-5
Louisiana 82.7 85.0 84.1 83.9 4-3 6-5
Texas State 74.1 76.6 74.5 75.1 1-6 3-8
South Alabama 73.3 74.9 73.5 73.9 1-6 2-9
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.2 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 109.7 108.4 109.1 109.0
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
5 PAC12 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 IND 94.0 94.3 94.1 94.1
8 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
9 MAC 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

Group of 5 Teams Still in Running for NY6 Bowl

  1. Central Florida
  2. Utah St.
  3. Boise St.
  4. Fresno St.
  5. Army

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati Troy
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA SMU Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Memphis [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida UAB
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U San Diego St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College [Eastern Michigan]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Nevada] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Syracuse Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Texas Tech
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Miami (Fla.)
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Central Florida
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Standard

American Athletic
UCF vs. USF: Central Florida easily disposed of Cincinnati, and now they must end the regular season with a swooning South Florida team that looks all out of kilter. USF was 7-0 and has now lost four consecutive games. The Bulls play one good half and one bad half in nearly every game, and if this repeats itself, UCF should win by more than 20 points. However, we suspect USF will play its best game of the year, so this game could be closer than expected, especially if USF’s better half is the first half.

Time: Friday, 4:00 PM
TV: ESPN

Memphis vs. Houston: The West Division race is still up for grabs, and it will go to the winner of the Houston-Memphis game at the Liberty Bowl. Houston may have a little bit of dissension after some issues on the sidelines against Tulane last week. Memphis is playing its best ball of the season, and the Tigers enjoy a modicum of home field advantage. This game could have some head coaching implications. Major Applewhite is not a huge favorite in Houston, and a loss plus a bowl loss could put his job in jeopardy. On the other side, Memphis coach Mike Norvell could be on the short list of multiple Power 5 Conference jobs.
Time: Friday, 12:00 PM
TV: ABC

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Tulane vs. Navy, 12 Noon on ESPNU
SMU vs. Tulsa, 3:30 PM on CBSSN

Atlantic Coast
Clemson will play Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game, but there are other reasons to watch the Tigers this week. CU plays rival South Carolina, and this should give us all a chance to see Trevor Lawrence face a tough SEC defense. Somewhere down the road, Clemson might play for a National Championship against an even better SEC defense. In limited action earlier this year Lawrence was 5 of 9 for 99 yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M. South Carolina became bowl eligible against Chattanooga last night, and the Gamecocks added a late replacement game for their hurricane cancellation. They now play Akron next week, so there is a chance to get to 8-4 if they can pull off the big upset in this game. At 8-4, they could move up over Missouri and Auburn in the bowl pecking order.  Clemson vs. South Carolina

Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: ESPN

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida State vs. Florida, 12 PM on ABC
Wake Forest vs. Duke, 12:30 PM on ACCn

Big 12
This conference has multiple games of importance in both the Playoff and bowl picture. Let’s start by explaining how the Conference Championship Game looks.

Oklahoma leads Texas and West Virginia by one game in the standings, but the Sooners have not clinched a spot in the Championship Game. Oklahoma plays at West Virginia this week. Texas visits Kansas.

If Oklahoma wins, they are the #1 seed, and West Virginia falls to 6-3 in the league. If Texas then beats Kansas, it will be a rematch of the Red River Rivalry in Arlington, Texas, as the Longhorns will be 7-2.

If West Virginia beats Oklahoma, and Texas beats Kansas, then the Sooners are eliminated, while West Virginia and Texas play in the title game.

If Texas loses to Kansas in a monumental upset, then no matter what happens in the OU-WVU game, the two will play again the next week for the Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma needs to beat West Virginia and Texas and hope for Northwestern to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game to have any chance at making the Playoffs. There is a minor chance that they could get in if Notre Dame lays an egg at the Coliseum against USC this week, but the way the Trojans are playing, don’t bet on it.

There are three more important games in the Big 12 this week.  Texas Tech plays Baylor at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The winner earns a bowl bid, while the loser plays again next September. If the loser is Texas Tech, there’s a good chance that somebody other than Kliff KIngsbury will be coaching the Red Raiders in 2019. His job is not totally secure unless TTU wins this game and the bowl game.
Oklahoma State is bowl eligible thanks to the upset over West Virginia. The Cowboys close the season against TCU, and the 5-6 Horned Frogs need a win to become bowl eligible. TCU had several near misses, but their defense looked strong in stopping Baylor Saturday.
Kansas State might be playing its final game under the direction of legendary coach Bill Snyder. At 79, there’s a chance that Snyder will retire for good after this season. Kansas State is 5-6 and faces a tough finishing game against Iowa State in Ames. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell might also be leading his Cyclones on the field for the last time. He could easily be gobbled up by a bigger school looking to hire a new coach. Should Urban Meyer step down at Ohio State, a lot of insiders believe that Campbell would be on a very short list in Columbus.

Big 12 Key Game Schedule
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Time: Friday, 8 PM
TV; ESPN

Texas vs. Kansas
Time: Friday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Time: Saturday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.
Time: Saturday, 8 PM
TV: Fox

Kansas St. vs. Iowa St.
Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: FS1

 

Big Ten
Michigan vs. Ohio State: It’s all about the big rivalry game at the Giant Horseshoe. Michigan and Ohio State will meet for the annual grudge match, and the winner wins the East and stays in contention for the Playoffs. The loser most likely would get the consolation prize of a Rose Bowl game. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, which means they are zero for their last eight. In that span, they lose their most important game prior to this one, when they fell by a field goal in 2006. Expect a hard-fought effort on both sides, and the winner just may come out of this game at somewhat less than 100%, giving Northwestern a bit more chance to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Fox

Indiana and Purdue face off in Bloomington in a bowl qualification/elimination game. These may be the two best 5-6 teams in the nation, and the winner will be a tough 6-6 bowl team. Purdue may be playing with some distractions, as it appears as if Coach Jeff Brohm is halfway out the door and headed south to his Alma Mater in Louisville.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe must fall in the favor of Minnesota against Wisconsin if the Golden Gophers are to nab the Big Ten’s ninth bowl bid. UM is 5-6 and extremely inconsistent, sometimes in the same half of games. Wisconsin is coming in for a landing with a stalled engine, so this game should be close and relatively low scoring.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

Maryland has not won a game since D.J. Durkin was officially re-instated and then fired. The Terrapins were 5-3 and looking like a bowl team before the news hit. They have dropped three games in a row and must win at Penn State to become bowl eligible. Penn State is winning on fumes in November. The Nittany Lions’ offense has disappeared. Still, PSU looks like a prohibitive favorite in this game, and they actually still hold a remote chance of earning the final New Year’s Six Bowl bid. A win would almost guarantee them no worse than the Citrus or Outback Bowl games on New Year’s Day. Maryland vs. Penn St.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

Conference USA
CUSA lost any chance of sending a team to the Peach Bowl when UAB coughed up the ball too many times and lost at Texas A&M after coming out even in total yardage. The Blazers have clinched a berth in the CUSA Championship Game, and their contest at Middle Tennessee this week will still be important, because the East Division race is still to be decided. If Middle beats UAB, and Marshall beats Florida International, then Middle and UAB would play again next week in the CUSA Championship Game. If FIU beats Marshall and UAB beats Middle Tennessee, then FIU wins the East Division race.

Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
Time: 3PM, Saturday
TV: Online only at ESPN3

Florida International vs. Marshall
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Stadium and Facebook

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte
Time: Saturday, 6PM
TV: Stadium

Southern Mississippi vs. UTEP
Time: 3 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Independents
Notre Dame can become the first team to secure a spot in the Playoffs by topping USC in Los Angeles. USC will be playing for bowl eligibility as well as Coach Clay Helton’s job security. There might be a couple of NFL head coaches, including former coach Pete Carroll interested in taking the job if it becomes available, but we tend to believe Dino Babers might be the answer if this job opens up. As for the Irish, they are peaking at the right time. A double-digit win should leave Notre Dame in the 3-slot with a trip to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson the most likely scenario.  Notre Dame vs. USC

Time: 8 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

 

Mid-American
The MAC Championship Game will pit Buffalo and Northern Illinois unless the unthinkable happens, and the Bulls lose to a weak Bowling Green team. Should Buffalo lose, then Miami of Ohio has a chance to do the unthinkable for the second time in three years if they beat Ball St. Miami began 2016 at 0-6 and then won six games in a row to come from last to first and make a bowl game. This year the Red Hawks were 1-4 and then 3-6 before winning back-to-back games over favored Ohio and Northern Illinois teams. Ohio can only win the division if Buffalo and Miami both lose.
In the West, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan all have six wins and are bowl eligible, but there is little chance that all three will be invited to bowls. At least one of these three will miss out, so, it is important to get that seventh win this week.

Key MAC Games Schedule

Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPNU

Miami (O) vs. Ball St.
Time: 7PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPN+

Ohio U vs. Akron
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: CBSSN
Note: Akron is technically still in the running for bowl eligibility at 4-6, but the Zips must beat Ohio and then South Carolina, so we have eliminated them from the bowl team possibles.

Eastern Michigan vs. Kent St.
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online

Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Time: 7 PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPNU

Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online
Mountain West
Fresno State clinched a spot in the conference championship game and will face the winner of the Boise State-Utah State game. Utah State is playing for more than just a spot in the MWC Championship Game. They are the team on-deck should Central Florida fall to USF or in the AAC Championship Game. The Aggies could sneak into the Fiesta Bowl with wins over Boise State and Fresno State and a loss by UCF.

Boise State-Utah St.
Time: 10:15 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN

Wyoming is 5-6 and needs a win over New Mexico to become bowl eligible. Even at 6-6, the Cowboys have only a slim chance to earn a bowl bid.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: MWCn
Pac-12
Both division races will be decided this week. In the North Division race, it comes down to the Apple Cup game between Washington and Washington St. Washington State has not won the Apple Cup since Mike Leach’s first year in the Palouse. UW has won the last five years by better than three touchdowns per game. An impressive win over Washington combined with a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game could bring the Playoffs into view for WSU if Northwestern won the Big Ten Championship Game and Oklahoma did not win the Big 12 Championship.  Washington State vs. Washington

Time: 8:30 PM, Friday
TV: Fox

The South Division comes down to Utah or Arizona State. Utah has already finished their conference slate, and their game against BYU is strictly for bragging rights in the Beehive State. The Arizona State-Arizona game is the important one. If the Sun Devils win, then Coach Herm Edwards will force all those pundits to eat crow when they called his hiring a farce. ASU would win the South with a win over their rival. Arizona has a lot to play for as well. The Wildcats are 5-6 and must win to become bowl eligible, where they most likely would be shipped east as an at-large team for a bowl needing to fill a spot.

Arizona-Arizona State
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: FS1

Colorado was 5-0, and now the Buffaloes are 5-6. Coach Mike MacIntyre is on a hot seat in snowy Boulder, and CU must venture to smoky Berkeley to face a hot Cal team that got an unexpected week off last week. CU better hope that Cal is looking forward to the Stanford makeup game the following week and overlooks the Buffs, because CU hasn’t got much left in the tank at this point.  Colorado vs. California

Time: 7PM, Saturday
TV: Pac-12
Southeastern
Alabama and Georgia will meet in the next chapter of greatness in the SEC Championship Game next week, but both teams must not overlook their arch-rivals this week, both of whom come into this game in peak performance.

Alabama should have little problem with Auburn, but the Tide showed some vulnerabilities that Auburn, and then Georgia, and possibly Clemson can attack. By saying “vulnerabilities,” we refer to something similar to the 1927 New York Yankees being a little weak at third base with Jumping Joe Dugan. Auburn last beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 2010, but that team has Cam Newton at quarterback and still only won by a point.

Alabama vs. Auburn
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: CBS

Georgia cannot afford a loss to Georgia Tech, as the Bulldogs might not make the playoffs even if they subsequently beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Tech has made a big turnaround since starting the season 1-3. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall has a chance to reach 1,000 rushing yards with a good game here and another in the bowl game.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: SECn

Vanderbilt and Tennessee face off in Nashville with a bowl game going to the winner and the end of the line coming for the loser. Tennessee needs quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to return from a head and neck injury suffered Saturday against Missouri. Guarantano is worth more than a touchdown to the Vols compared to backup Keller Chryst. The Vols also have concerns at wideout where Marquez Callaway also was injured against Missouri. Vanderbilt has some injury concerns at quarterback as well, but it is their number two guy that will probably miss this game. Should anything happen to Kyle Shurmur, then the Commodores would be forced to put a true freshman with zero game experience into the most important game of their season. Vandy coach Derek Mason could receive some feelers from other job openings if he can guide the Commodores to their second bowl in three years. He was courted by California last year, and a possible opening or two in the Pac-12 could attract him.  Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Time: 4 PM, Saturday
TV: SECn

Sun Belt
Half of the league still holds SBC Championship Game aspirations. In the East, Troy plays Appalachian State, and the winner takes the division title and hosts the inaugural SBC Championship Game. The Mountaineers host this game and have not lost a conference game at home in more than three years. These two teams did not play each other last year when they tied for first, and the last two times they played, the games came down to the final minute.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

The West Division is currently log-jammed with three teams tied for first at 4-3. Louisiana holds the trump card in this three-way race. If the Ragin’ Cajuns defeat rival UL-Monroe, they will win the division title and play in the league title game. If UL-Monroe beats Louisiana, then Arkansas State would get in if the Red Wolves beat Texas State. If UL-Monroe wins and Arkansas State loses, then the Warhawks would win the division title outright.
Louisiana vs. UL-Monroe
Time: 3 PM ,Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Time: 4PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN3

 

November 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Western Michigan -6.3 -6.0 -7.9

 

Wednesday November 14
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio U Buffalo 2.1 1.2 1.5
Northern Illinois Miami (O) 7.1 6.5 5.4

 

Thursday November 15
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Kent St. Toledo -16.5 -16.7 -16.3
Houston Tulane 7.4 7.4 7.7
North Texas Florida Atlantic 2.4 3.4 2.2

 

Friday November 16
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU Memphis -4.4 -6.0 -5.8
New Mexico Boise St. -23.1 -21.5 -23.7

 

Saturday November 17
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Michigan Indiana 32.8 32.7 33.6
Wake Forest Pittsburgh -2.5 -3.8 -4.1
Illinois Iowa -21.0 -19.7 -21.9
Purdue Wisconsin 0.9 1.9 1.6
Georgia Tech Virginia 11.6 10.6 12.2
Minnesota Northwestern -8.4 -8.0 -9.0
Clemson Duke 30.1 29.6 31.6
Rutgers Penn St. -28.1 -26.4 -29.3
Kansas St. Texas Tech -4.8 -4.7 -4.7
East Carolina Connecticut 12.7 12.1 13.2
Temple South Florida 15.3 14.1 16.7
Georgia Massachusetts 51.8 47.9 52.7
Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern -9.6 -8.7 -9.3
Tennessee Missouri -13.0 -11.1 -14.3
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 20.3 17.1 19.2
Maryland Ohio St. -16.4 -16.0 -17.4
Louisville North Carolina St. -17.1 -16.9 -17.7
Central Florida Cincinnati 15.6 14.0 15.1
Auburn Liberty 36.4 35.5 37.3
Charlotte Florida Int’l. -8.6 -9.9 -8.5
BYU New Mexico St. 31.1 29.9 31.9
Wyoming Air Force 1.2 0.5 0.1
Colorado Utah -13.2 -11.5 -13.3
Colorado St. Utah St. -26.3 -27.1 -28.0
Notre Dame Syracuse 16.2 14.9 15.9
Appalachian St. Georgia St. 24.7 24.7 26.1
Marshall UTSA 24.9 23.6 25.7
California Stanford -5.0 -4.8 -5.2
Oregon Arizona St. 1.6 2.8 2.5
Washington St. Arizona 13.2 13.5 12.6
San Jose St. Nevada -15.4 -14.7 -17.0
Baylor TCU -1.4 -1.5 0.3
Navy Tulsa 1.1 3.5 0.8
Texas A&M UAB 18.6 14.6 17.9
Mississippi St. Arkansas 23.4 23.7 25.2
Oklahoma St. West Virginia -5.4 -6.2 -4.9
Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech -4.1 -3.0 -4.4
Akron Bowling Green 9.8 10.2 9.5
LSU Rice 54.4 50.8 56.2
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 2.5 3.2 2.6
Florida St. Boston College -8.5 -7.6 -9.4
Oklahoma Kansas 27.7 27.9 29.4
Washington Oregon St. 38.8 38.8 40.7
Arkansas St. UL-Monroe 4.8 5.6 5.7
Troy Texas St. 22.1 20.9 23.6
Louisiana South Alabama 12.1 12.8 13.4
Virginia Tech Miami (Fla.) -3.6 -3.2 -3.5
Western Kentucky UTEP 8.4 8.3 9.0
Nebraska Michigan St. -11.1 -10.1 -11.5
Texas Iowa St. 2.2 2.2 1.8
UCLA USC -7.4 -6.3 -8.6
Fresno St. San Diego St. 20.1 19.7 20.3
Hawaii UNLV 1.8 2.5 0.5

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Florida Idaho 33.0
Alabama Citadel 58.2
Army Colgate 21.2
Old Dominion VMI 20.9
North Carolina Western Carolina 25.6
South Carolina Chattanooga 36.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.0 128.8 130.7 129.8
4 Georgia 129.0 126.5 130.2 128.5
5 Notre Dame 125.2 122.7 124.3 124.0
6 Ohio St. 123.2 121.3 123.2 122.6
7 Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.2 121.7
8 Washington 121.3 119.2 121.9 120.8
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 118.7 117.8 119.5 118.7
11 Missouri 118.3 116.9 119.3 118.1
12 West Virginia 118.2 117.3 117.6 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.3 115.7 118.1 117.4
14 Michigan St. 116.6 114.5 116.1 115.8
15 Boston College 116.3 114.1 116.1 115.5
16 Auburn 115.4 114.1 116.7 115.4
17 Utah 115.6 114.0 116.0 115.2
18 Iowa 115.5 113.6 115.1 114.7
19 Iowa State 114.6 113.1 114.4 114.0
20 Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9
21 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
22 Central Florida 113.7 113.9 113.8 113.8
23 Washington St. 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
24 Fresno St. 113.6 113.1 114.0 113.6
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.6 114.2 113.6
26 Texas 113.8 112.3 113.3 113.1
27 Utah St. 111.2 112.7 112.5 112.1
28 Miami 112.8 111.1 111.9 112.0
29 Florida 111.8 110.1 112.3 111.4
30 Syracuse 111.9 110.8 111.4 111.4
31 Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3
32 Northwestern 111.7 110.1 111.7 111.2
33 Wisconsin 112.1 109.5 111.2 110.9
34 S. Carolina 111.5 110.3 111.0 110.9
35 Kentucky 110.7 109.4 110.6 110.2
36 Boise St. 110.3 109.8 110.4 110.2
37 N. Carolina St. 110.5 109.7 109.9 110.0
38 Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9
39 Texas Tech 110.5 109.1 109.5 109.7
40 Purdue 110.0 108.4 109.8 109.4
41 Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2
42 Oklahoma St. 109.8 108.1 109.7 109.2
43 Pittsburgh 109.1 108.6 108.9 108.9
44 California 108.1 106.0 108.1 107.4
45 U S C 108.0 106.4 107.2 107.2
46 Virginia Tech 106.2 104.9 105.4 105.5
47 Virginia 105.7 105.8 104.9 105.5
48 Temple 104.1 104.3 105.0 104.5
49 T C U 105.4 103.9 103.6 104.3
50 Florida St. 104.8 103.6 103.8 104.0
51 Vanderbilt 103.6 103.6 103.9 103.7
52 Arizona 104.1 102.7 104.4 103.7
53 Army 103.3 104.0 103.5 103.6
54 Ole Miss 103.6 103.0 103.8 103.4
55 Memphis 102.3 103.6 103.1 103.0
56 Wake Forest 104.2 102.3 102.4 102.9
57 Maryland 103.7 102.3 102.8 102.9
58 Tennessee 102.3 102.7 101.9 102.3
59 Kansas St. 102.8 101.4 101.7 102.0
60 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
61 Nebraska 102.6 101.4 101.7 101.9
62 Buffalo 100.5 102.5 101.8 101.6
63 Baylor 102.0 100.4 101.8 101.4
64 BYU 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8
65 Houston 100.2 100.7 100.4 100.4
66 Ohio U 99.5 100.7 100.4 100.2
67 N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9
68 Indiana 100.2 99.1 100.0 99.8
69 Minnesota 100.4 99.1 99.7 99.7
70 Appalachian St. 98.5 100.4 100.1 99.6
71 Colorado 99.4 99.6 99.7 99.6
72 U A B 98.3 101.0 99.3 99.6
73 Northern Illinois 98.6 99.6 99.0 99.1
74 Arkansas 100.1 97.8 99.2 99.0
75 U C L A 99.1 98.6 97.1 98.2
76 Toledo 97.4 98.7 97.2 97.8
77 N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7
78 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
79 Nevada 96.6 96.8 97.0 96.8
80 Air Force 96.3 97.1 97.0 96.8
81 San Diego St. 96.5 96.5 96.8 96.6
82 Kansas 97.4 95.9 95.8 96.4
83 Tulane 95.8 96.3 95.7 95.9
84 Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.7 95.7 95.9
85 Miami (O) 94.4 96.2 96.6 95.7
86 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
87 Wyoming 95.0 95.1 94.6 94.9
88 SMU 95.0 94.6 94.3 94.6
89 Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.3 94.4 94.4
90 Troy 92.6 94.0 94.3 93.6
91 Louisiana Tech 91.8 93.8 92.5 92.7
92 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
93 Illinois 92.0 91.4 90.7 91.4
94 Florida Int’l. 89.7 93.4 90.4 91.2
95 Arkansas St. 89.4 90.9 90.9 90.4
96 Louisville 90.9 90.3 89.7 90.3
97 Tulsa 90.0 89.6 90.0 89.9
98 Western Michigan 88.7 90.3 89.7 89.6
99 Georgia Southern 88.8 90.4 89.2 89.5
100 Navy 88.1 90.0 87.8 88.7
101 Akron 87.9 88.9 87.6 88.2
102 UL-Monroe 87.0 87.7 87.8 87.5
103 Rutgers 87.7 86.7 86.3 86.9
104 Southern Miss. 85.6 88.7 86.0 86.8
105 New Mexico 84.7 85.8 84.2 84.9
106 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
107 Louisiana 82.8 85.1 84.3 84.1
108 East Carolina 83.8 83.7 83.5 83.7
109 Old Dominion 82.2 85.4 82.1 83.3
110 U N L V 81.9 82.8 82.1 82.3
111 Colorado St. 82.0 82.6 81.5 82.0
112 Liberty 82.0 81.5 82.4 82.0
113 Central Michigan 80.3 82.4 80.5 81.1
114 Massachusetts 80.2 81.6 80.5 80.8
115 Hawaii 80.2 81.8 79.1 80.4
116 Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.3 80.4
117 Bowling Green 80.1 80.7 80.1 80.3
118 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
119 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
120 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3
121 San Jose St. 78.7 79.6 77.5 78.6
122 Coastal Carolina 77.2 79.7 77.9 78.3
123 Georgia St. 76.3 78.1 76.4 76.9
124 U T E P 73.1 76.2 73.1 74.1
125 Connecticut 74.1 74.6 73.3 74.0
126 Texas State 73.0 75.6 73.2 73.9
127 South Alabama 73.2 74.8 73.3 73.8
128 U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8
129 N. Mexico St. 72.3 74.1 72.2 72.9
130 Rice 67.3 70.0 66.3 67.9

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.7 113.9 113.8 113.8 6-0 9-0
Temple 104.1 104.3 105.0 104.5 5-1 6-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 5-1 9-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-3 7-3
East Carolina 83.8 83.7 83.5 83.7 0-6 2-7
Connecticut 74.1 74.6 73.3 74.0 0-6 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 102.3 103.6 103.1 103.0 3-3 6-4
Houston 100.2 100.7 100.4 100.4 4-2 7-3
Tulane 95.8 96.3 95.7 95.9 4-2 5-5
SMU 95.0 94.6 94.3 94.6 4-2 5-5
Tulsa 90.0 89.6 90.0 89.9 1-5 2-8
Navy 88.1 90.0 87.8 88.7 1-5 2-8
AAC Averages 95.0 95.6 95.0 95.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 7-0 10-0
Boston College 116.3 114.1 116.1 115.5 4-2 7-3
Syracuse 111.9 110.8 111.4 111.4 5-2 8-2
N. Carolina St. 110.5 109.7 109.9 110.0 3-3 6-3
Florida St. 104.8 103.6 103.8 104.0 2-5 4-6
Wake Forest 104.2 102.3 102.4 102.9 2-4 5-5
Louisville 90.9 90.3 89.7 90.3 0-7 2-8
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9 4-3 6-4
Miami 112.8 111.1 111.9 112.0 2-4 5-5
Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3 3-3 7-3
Pittsburgh 109.1 108.6 108.9 108.9 5-1 6-4
Virginia Tech 106.2 104.9 105.4 105.5 3-3 4-5
Virginia 105.7 105.8 104.9 105.5 4-2 7-3
N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9 1-6 1-8
ACC Averages 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.2 121.7 6-1 9-1
West Virginia 118.2 117.3 117.6 117.7 6-1 8-1
Iowa State 114.6 113.1 114.4 114.0 5-2 6-3
Texas 113.8 112.3 113.3 113.1 5-2 7-3
Texas Tech 110.5 109.1 109.5 109.7 3-4 5-5
Oklahoma St. 109.8 108.1 109.7 109.2 2-5 5-5
T C U 105.4 103.9 103.6 104.3 2-5 4-6
Kansas St. 102.8 101.4 101.7 102.0 2-5 4-6
Baylor 102.0 100.4 101.8 101.4 3-4 5-5
Kansas 97.4 95.9 95.8 96.4 1-6 3-7
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.0 128.8 130.7 129.8 7-0 9-1
Ohio St. 123.2 121.3 123.2 122.6 6-1 9-1
Penn St. 118.3 115.7 118.1 117.4 4-3 7-3
Michigan St. 116.6 114.5 116.1 115.8 5-3 6-4
Maryland 103.7 102.3 102.8 102.9 3-4 5-5
Indiana 100.2 99.1 100.0 99.8 2-5 5-5
Rutgers 87.7 86.7 86.3 86.9 0-7 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 115.5 113.6 115.1 114.7 3-4 6-4
Northwestern 111.7 110.1 111.7 111.2 6-1 6-4
Wisconsin 112.1 109.5 111.2 110.9 4-3 6-4
Purdue 110.0 108.4 109.8 109.4 4-3 5-5
Nebraska 102.6 101.4 101.7 101.9 2-5 3-7
Minnesota 100.4 99.1 99.7 99.7 2-5 5-5
Illinois 92.0 91.4 90.7 91.4 2-5 4-6
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 3-3 5-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 4-2 6-3
Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.3 94.4 94.4 6-1 7-3
Florida Int’l. 89.7 93.4 90.4 91.2 5-1 7-3
Old Dominion 82.2 85.4 82.1 83.3 2-5 3-7
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-3 4-6
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-6 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 98.3 101.0 99.3 99.6 7-0 9-1
N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7 3-3 7-3
Louisiana Tech 91.8 93.8 92.5 92.7 5-1 7-3
Southern Miss. 85.6 88.7 86.0 86.8 2-4 3-6
U T E P 73.1 76.2 73.1 74.1 1-5 1-9
U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8 2-4 3-7
Rice 67.3 70.0 66.3 67.9 0-7 1-10
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.2 122.7 124.3 124.0 x 10-0
Army 103.3 104.0 103.5 103.6 x 8-2
BYU 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8 x 5-5
Liberty 82.0 81.5 82.4 82.0 x 4-5
Massachusetts 80.2 81.6 80.5 80.8 x 4-7
N. Mexico St. 72.3 74.1 72.2 72.9 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.9 94.1 94.0 94.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 100.5 102.5 101.8 101.6 6-0 9-1
Ohio U 99.5 100.7 100.4 100.2 4-2 6-4
Miami (O) 94.4 96.2 96.6 95.7 4-2 4-6
Akron 87.9 88.9 87.6 88.2 2-4 4-5
Bowling Green 80.1 80.7 80.1 80.3 1-5 2-8
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3 1-5 2-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Northern Illinois 98.6 99.6 99.0 99.1 6-0 7-3
Toledo 97.4 98.7 97.2 97.8 3-3 5-5
Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.7 95.7 95.9 4-3 6-5
Western Michigan 88.7 90.3 89.7 89.6 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 80.3 82.4 80.5 81.1 0-7 1-10
Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.3 80.4 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.2 112.7 112.5 112.1 6-0 9-1
Boise St. 110.3 109.8 110.4 110.2 5-1 8-2
Air Force 96.3 97.1 97.0 96.8 2-4 4-6
Wyoming 95.0 95.1 94.6 94.9 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.7 85.8 84.2 84.9 1-5 3-7
Colorado St. 82.0 82.6 81.5 82.0 2-4 3-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 113.6 113.1 114.0 113.6 5-1 8-2
Nevada 96.6 96.8 97.0 96.8 4-2 6-4
San Diego St. 96.5 96.5 96.8 96.6 4-2 7-3
U N L V 81.9 82.8 82.1 82.3 1-5 3-7
Hawaii 80.2 81.8 79.1 80.4 3-3 6-5
San Jose St. 78.7 79.6 77.5 78.6 1-5 1-9
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.3 119.2 121.9 120.8 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 4-3 6-4
Washington St. 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 6-1 9-1
Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2 3-4 6-4
California 108.1 106.0 108.1 107.4 3-4 6-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-6 2-8
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.6 114.0 116.0 115.2 5-3 7-3
Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9 4-3 6-4
U S C 108.0 106.4 107.2 107.2 4-4 5-5
Arizona 104.1 102.7 104.4 103.7 4-3 5-5
Colorado 99.4 99.6 99.7 99.6 2-5 5-5
U C L A 99.1 98.6 97.1 98.2 2-5 2-8
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 129.0 126.5 130.2 128.5 7-1 9-1
Missouri 118.3 116.9 119.3 118.1 2-4 6-4
Florida 111.8 110.1 112.3 111.4 5-3 7-3
S. Carolina 111.5 110.3 111.0 110.9 4-4 5-4
Kentucky 110.7 109.4 110.6 110.2 5-3 7-3
Vanderbilt 103.6 103.6 103.9 103.7 1-5 4-6
Tennessee 102.3 102.7 101.9 102.3 2-4 5-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average</