The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Akron 3.4 2.9 4.0
Buffalo Bowling Green 6.0 7.5 7.6
Western Michigan Kent St. 26.9 24.5 27.6
Ohio U Toledo -6.2 -5.0 -6.7
Central Michigan Eastern Michigan -1.4 -0.4 -1.4
Northern Illinois Ball St. 29.3 27.1 29.4
Appalachian St. Georgia Southern 21.7 19.1 22.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina 8.3 9.0 9.1
Cincinnati Temple -3.0 -1.6 -1.7
Stanford Washington -7.5 -6.1 -8.7
UNLV BYU 1.1 3.0 1.8
Maryland Michigan -11.6 -10.3 -11.2
South Carolina Florida 5.6 5.2 5.6
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech -2.9 -4.7 -4.6
East Carolina Tulane -8.2 -7.2 -8.6
Boston College North Carolina St. -4.0 -3.5 -4.1
Central Florida Connecticut 31.9 31.3 32.9
Syracuse Wake Forest 6.1 5.9 5.5
Penn St. Rutgers 33.0 31.3 34.0
Army Duke -3.3 -2.6 -1.4
Ohio St. Michigan St. 27.2 23.8 25.9
Illinois Indiana -11.6 -10.6 -13.1
Coastal Carolina Troy -22.2 -21.2 -20.8
Charlotte Middle Tennessee -11.2 -10.1 -11.6
Air Force Wyoming -2.0 -0.3 -0.7
Nevada San Jose St. 16.2 17.7 18.4
Baylor Texas Tech -2.2 -0.8 -1.1
Kansas St. West Virginia 3.1 2.6 2.6
Oklahoma TCU 6.6 7.2 6.7
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. -7.4 -6.6 -7.0
Louisville Virginia 13.1 13.0 12.7
Miami (Fla.) Notre Dame 3.1 2.6 1.6
Navy SMU 4.9 5.4 4.6
Utah Washington St. -7.0 -3.8 -6.8
Northwestern Purdue 10.4 9.3 10.2
Ole Miss Louisiana-Lafayette 25.1 22.2 23.6
Minnesota Nebraska 4.0 4.2 4.0
Mississippi St. Alabama -22.3 -17.9 -20.8
Louisiana Tech Florida Atlantic -5.0 -5.3 -5.9
Rice Southern Miss. -9.8 -9.5 -10.0
Colorado USC -9.7 -10.5 -11.7
Wisconsin Iowa 10.0 6.9 8.8
Auburn Georgia 1.0 -1.2 0.8
Missouri Tennessee 5.4 5.1 6.5
Texas A&M New Mexico 22.7 20.9 21.3
UCLA Arizona St. -1.0 -0.5 -1.5
Vanderbilt Kentucky -1.7 -1.5 -1.8
South Alabama Arkansas St. -8.4 -7.0 -10.0
Texas St. Georgia St. -8.3 -6.0 -9.0
North Texas UTEP 15.8 14.6 16.5
Texas Kansas 37.7 34.6 39.5
Marshall Western Kentucky 3.7 5.0 4.7
Florida Int’l. Old Dominion 8.9 6.6 9.9
UTSA UAB 15.0 14.0 14.0
Clemson Florida St. 14.4 12.8 15.3
LSU Arkansas 21.2 19.9 22.5
Arizona Oregon St. 16.3 15.0 16.8
Colorado St. Boise St. -2.2 -1.7 -2.6
Hawaii Fresno St. -6.3 -4.5 -7.0

The PiRate Ratings

Retro Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 Wisconsin
6 Miami (Fla)
7 Oklahoma
8 Penn St.
9 Central Florida
10 Ohio St.
11 Washington
12 TCU
13 USC
14 Auburn
15 Oklahoma St.
16 Michigan St.
17 Virginia Tech
18 Michigan
19 Iowa
20 Mississippi St.
21 Memphis
22 Washington St.
23 Iowa St.
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 Stanford
27 LSU
28 Toledo
29 Northwestern
30 South Florida
31 Boston College
32 Arizona
33 South Carolina
34 Wake Forest
35 West Virginia
36 San Diego St.
37 Arizona St.
38 Georgia Tech
39 Houston
40 Texas
41 Texas A&M
42 SMU
43 Oregon
44 Navy
45 Louisville
46 Florida St.
47 Syracuse
48 Florida Atlantic
49 Utah
50 Virginia
51 Northern Illinois
52 Texas Tech
53 Kentucky
54 Army
55 Troy
56 California
57 Fresno St.
58 Purdue
59 Kansas St.
60 Pittsburgh
61 Nebraska
62 UCLA
63 Marshall
64 Maryland
65 Wyoming
66 Ohio
67 Arkansas St.
68 Florida
69 Colorado
70 Missouri
71 Duke
72 Minnesota
73 Indiana
74 Tennessee
75 Colorado St.
76 Ole Miss
77 Florida Int’l.
78 North Texas
79 Western Michigan
80 Akron
81 Rutgers
82 Arkansas
83 Vanderbilt
84 Utah St.
85 Temple
86 Central Michigan
87 UAB
88 Air Force
89 Eastern Michigan
90 Tulane
91 UTSA
92 Southern Miss.
93 Cincinnati
94 Appalachian St.
95 Georgia St.
96 Louisiana Tech
97 UNLV
98 Middle Tennessee
99 North Carolina
100 Western Kentucky
101 Buffalo
102 Tulsa
103 Miami (O)
104 New Mexico St.
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 New Mexico
109 UL-Monroe
110 East Carolina
111 Oregon St.
112 South Alabama
113 UL-Lafayette
114 Bowling Green
115 BYU
116 Idaho
117 Nevada
118 Old Dominion
119 Massachusetts
120 Kent St.
121 Hawaii
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 San Jose St.
129 UTEP
130 Georgia Southern

PiRate Predictive Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.2 134.2 136.9 136.4
2 Ohio St. 130.9 128.5 131.0 130.1
3 Georgia 128.4 128.5 128.7 128.5
4 Washington 128.9 126.1 129.3 128.1
5 Clemson 127.8 125.3 127.3 126.8
6 Penn St. 127.1 125.3 127.8 126.7
7 Auburn 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
8 Oklahoma 123.5 122.3 124.1 123.3
9 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
10 Notre Dame 122.2 120.8 122.9 121.9
11 Miami 122.3 120.4 121.5 121.4
12 Virginia Tech 120.6 119.9 120.8 120.4
13 Wisconsin 121.6 118.8 120.1 120.2
14 T C U 119.9 118.1 120.4 119.4
15 U S C 119.2 118.4 119.1 118.9
16 Stanford 118.4 117.0 117.6 117.7
17 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
18 L S U 117.0 114.9 117.6 116.5
19 Florida St. 116.4 115.5 114.9 115.6
20 Texas 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9
21 Iowa 114.6 114.9 114.3 114.6
22 Michigan 114.3 114.3 113.4 114.0
23 Washington St. 114.8 112.5 114.4 113.9
24 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.0 113.8
25 Georgia Tech 114.7 112.2 113.2 113.4
26 Mississippi St. 112.9 113.3 113.1 113.1
27 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
28 Louisville 112.1 111.2 111.9 111.7
29 Syracuse 112.2 110.5 111.6 111.4
30 West Virginia 110.3 110.8 110.7 110.6
31 Kansas St. 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
32 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 South Florida 109.8 108.7 110.4 109.6
35 Wake Forest 109.2 107.5 109.1 108.6
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Memphis 108.5 107.8 109.1 108.4
38 Arizona 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
39 Michigan St. 106.7 107.7 108.1 107.5
40 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
41 Pittsburgh 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4
42 Texas A&M 107.1 105.1 106.3 106.2
43 Arizona St. 106.6 105.6 106.3 106.2
44 Florida 106.5 105.9 105.7 106.0
45 Kentucky 106.7 105.7 105.6 106.0
46 Duke 106.6 105.9 105.3 105.9
47 Oregon 106.5 104.7 105.6 105.6
48 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.4 105.3
49 Missouri 106.0 104.1 105.3 105.1
50 Utah 104.8 105.7 104.6 105.0
51 Toledo 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
52 Ole Miss 105.0 103.5 103.6 104.0
53 Texas Tech 103.9 103.8 103.1 103.6
54 California 104.5 102.4 102.6 103.2
55 Indiana 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.2
56 Houston 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.0
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 Tennessee 103.6 102.0 101.8 102.5
59 Minnesota 102.4 103.3 101.6 102.4
60 U C L A 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.2
61 San Diego St. 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.3 101.8
63 Virginia 102.0 101.2 102.1 101.8
64 Colo. State 101.8 100.8 101.6 101.4
65 Nebraska 101.3 102.1 100.6 101.3
66 Navy 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.7
67 N. Carolina 101.2 100.3 100.1 100.5
68 Army 100.3 100.3 100.9 100.5
69 Maryland 99.7 101.0 99.2 99.9
70 Baylor 98.7 100.1 99.0 99.3
71 SMU 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.7
72 Wyoming 99.3 98.0 98.3 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.0 98.0 98.3
74 Western Michigan 97.7 96.7 98.6 97.7
75 Eastern Michigan 97.2 96.9 97.8 97.3
76 Rutgers 97.1 97.0 96.8 97.0
77 Florida Atlantic 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
78 Arkansas St. 95.8 96.7 97.3 96.6
79 Ohio U 95.5 96.6 96.6 96.2
80 Troy 95.1 95.3 94.5 95.0
81 Oregon St. 95.5 95.2 94.1 94.9
82 Fresno St. 94.7 93.9 95.2 94.6
83 Air Force 94.2 94.7 94.6 94.5
84 Tulsa 94.6 94.4 94.1 94.4
85 Northern Illinois 94.1 94.0 95.0 94.3
86 Temple 94.0 94.4 94.1 94.2
87 Central Michigan 93.3 94.0 93.9 93.7
88 Tulane 92.9 93.3 93.1 93.1
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
91 U T S A 91.0 93.1 92.0 92.0
92 Utah St. 92.3 91.5 91.9 91.9
93 W. Kentucky 90.9 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Massachusetts 90.2 89.4 90.5 90.0
95 Cincinnati 88.5 90.2 89.9 89.5
96 Miami (O) 88.1 90.2 89.3 89.2
97 BYU 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.9
98 Illinois 88.9 90.0 87.8 88.9
99 Louisiana Tech 87.6 89.4 88.2 88.4
100 Akron 87.3 89.7 87.8 88.3
101 Florida Int’l. 87.7 87.9 88.8 88.2
102 U N L V 87.3 88.9 87.5 87.9
103 Nevada 86.2 88.0 87.5 87.2
104 New Mexico 86.9 86.7 87.5 87.0
105 N. Mexico St. 87.4 85.8 87.7 87.0
106 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.4 86.8
107 Middle Tennessee 86.1 87.3 86.9 86.8
108 Hawaii 84.9 85.9 84.7 85.2
109 S. Alabama 84.4 86.7 84.3 85.1
110 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
111 Connecticut 84.0 86.0 84.1 84.7
112 N. Texas 83.9 85.5 84.6 84.7
113 Georgia St. 84.1 83.9 84.1 84.1
114 UL-Lafayette 82.4 83.8 82.5 82.9
115 Old Dominion 81.8 84.4 81.9 82.7
116 East Carolina 82.2 83.7 82.0 82.6
117 Bowling Green 81.9 82.8 82.3 82.3
118 UL-Monroe 82.3 83.1 81.5 82.3
119 Idaho 80.9 82.0 81.7 81.5
120 UAB 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.7
121 Kansas 79.9 83.3 78.6 80.6
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.3 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.3 75.4 72.6 73.8
125 Charlotte 72.4 74.7 72.7 73.3
126 San Jose St. 73.0 73.3 72.1 72.8
127 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
128 U T E P 71.0 73.9 71.1 72.0
129 Coastal Carolina 70.8 72.2 71.7 71.6
130 Ball St. 67.8 69.8 68.6 68.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 5-0 8-0 112.9 114.3 114.0 113.8
South Florida 5-1 8-1 109.8 108.7 110.4 109.6
Temple 2-3 4-5 94.0 94.4 94.1 94.2
Cincinnati 1-4 3-6 88.5 90.2 89.9 89.5
Connecticut 2-4 3-6 84.0 86.0 84.1 84.7
East Carolina 1-4 2-7 82.2 83.7 82.0 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.5 107.8 109.1 108.4
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.0
Navy 3-3 5-3 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.7
SMU 3-2 6-3 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.6 94.4 94.1 94.4
Tulane 1-4 3-6 92.9 93.3 93.1 93.1
             
AAC Averages     97.4 97.9 97.8 97.7
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 6-1 8-1 127.8 125.3 127.3 126.8
N. Carolina St. 4-1 6-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-4 3-5 116.4 115.5 114.9 115.6
Louisville 2-4 5-4 112.1 111.2 111.9 111.7
Syracuse 2-3 4-5 112.2 110.5 111.6 111.4
Boston College 3-3 5-4 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Wake Forest 2-3 5-4 109.2 107.5 109.1 108.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 8-0 122.3 120.4 121.5 121.4
Virginia Tech 3-2 7-2 120.6 119.9 120.8 120.4
Georgia Tech 3-3 4-4 114.7 112.2 113.2 113.4
Pittsburgh 2-3 4-5 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4
Duke 1-5 4-5 106.6 105.9 105.3 105.9
Virginia 3-2 6-3 102.0 101.2 102.1 101.8
N. Carolina 0-6 1-8 101.2 100.3 100.1 100.5
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 5-1 8-1 123.5 122.3 124.1 123.3
Oklahoma St. 4-2 7-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-1 8-1 119.9 118.1 120.4 119.4
Texas 3-3 4-5 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9
Iowa State 4-2 5-4 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
West Virginia 4-2 6-3 110.3 110.8 110.7 110.6
Kansas St. 3-3 5-4 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
Texas Tech 1-5 4-5 103.9 103.8 103.1 103.6
Baylor 1-5 1-8 98.7 100.1 99.0 99.3
Kansas 0-6 1-8 79.9 83.3 78.6 80.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-1 7-2 130.9 128.5 131.0 130.1
Penn St. 4-2 7-2 127.1 125.3 127.8 126.7
Michigan 4-2 7-2 114.3 114.3 113.4 114.0
Michigan St. 5-1 7-2 106.7 107.7 108.1 107.5
Indiana 0-6 3-6 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.2
Maryland 2-4 4-5 99.7 101.0 99.2 99.9
Rutgers 3-3 4-5 97.1 97.0 96.8 97.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 6-0 9-0 121.6 118.8 120.1 120.2
Iowa 3-3 6-3 114.6 114.9 114.3 114.6
Northwestern 4-2 6-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Purdue 2-4 4-5 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Minnesota 1-5 4-5 102.4 103.3 101.6 102.4
Nebraska 3-3 4-5 101.3 102.1 100.6 101.3
Illinois 0-6 2-7 88.9 90.0 87.8 88.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 5-0 6-3 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
Marshall 3-2 6-3 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
W. Kentucky 3-2 5-4 90.9 90.9 91.7 91.2
Florida Int’l. 4-1 6-2 87.7 87.9 88.8 88.2
Middle Tennessee 2-3 4-5 86.1 87.3 86.9 86.8
Old Dominion 1-4 3-6 81.8 84.4 81.9 82.7
Charlotte 1-4 1-8 72.4 74.7 72.7 73.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-3 5-3 91.0 93.1 92.0 92.0
Louisiana Tech 2-3 4-5 87.6 89.4 88.2 88.4
Southern Miss. 3-2 5-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
N. Texas 5-1 6-3 83.9 85.5 84.6 84.7
UAB 4-2 6-3 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.7
Rice 1-4 1-8 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-5 0-9 71.0 73.9 71.1 72.0
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-1 122.2 120.8 122.9 121.9
Army   7-2 100.3 100.3 100.9 100.5
Massachusetts   2-7 90.2 89.4 90.5 90.0
BYU   2-8 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.9
             
Indep. Averages     100.5 99.9 100.7 100.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 4-1 7-2 95.5 96.6 96.6 96.2
Miami (O) 2-3 3-6 88.1 90.2 89.3 89.2
Akron 4-1 5-4 87.3 89.7 87.8 88.3
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 85.4 87.7 87.4 86.8
Bowling Green 2-3 2-7 81.9 82.8 82.3 82.3
Kent St. 1-4 2-7 73.7 75.3 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-0 8-1 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
Western Michigan 3-2 5-4 97.7 96.7 98.6 97.7
Eastern Michigan 1-4 3-6 97.2 96.9 97.8 97.3
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 94.1 94.0 95.0 94.3
Central Michigan 3-2 5-4 93.3 94.0 93.9 93.7
Ball St. 0-5 2-7 67.8 69.8 68.6 68.7
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 5-0 7-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-2 6-4 101.8 100.8 101.6 101.4
Wyoming 4-1 6-3 99.3 98.0 98.3 98.5
Air Force 3-2 4-5 94.2 94.7 94.6 94.5
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.3 91.5 91.9 91.9
New Mexico 1-5 3-6 86.9 86.7 87.5 87.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.0
Fresno St. 4-1 6-3 94.7 93.9 95.2 94.6
U N L V 3-3 4-5 87.3 88.9 87.5 87.9
Nevada 1-4 1-8 86.2 88.0 87.5 87.2
Hawaii 1-5 3-6 84.9 85.9 84.7 85.2
San Jose St. 0-5 1-9 73.0 73.3 72.1 72.8
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.4 92.6 92.5
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-1 8-1 128.9 126.1 129.3 128.1
Stanford 5-2 6-3 118.4 117.0 117.6 117.7
Washington St. 4-2 7-2 114.8 112.5 114.4 113.9
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.5 104.7 105.6 105.6
California 2-5 5-5 104.5 102.4 102.6 103.2
Oregon St. 0-6 1-8 95.5 95.2 94.1 94.9
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 6-1 8-2 119.2 118.4 119.1 118.9
Arizona 4-2 6-3 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
Arizona St. 4-2 5-4 106.6 105.6 106.3 106.2
Colorado 2-5 5-5 106.5 105.0 104.4 105.3
Utah 2-4 5-4 104.8 105.7 104.6 105.0
U C L A 2-4 4-5 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-0 9-0 128.4 128.5 128.7 128.5
S. Carolina 4-3 6-3 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
Florida 3-4 3-5 106.5 105.9 105.7 106.0
Kentucky 3-3 6-3 106.7 105.7 105.6 106.0
Missouri 1-4 4-5 106.0 104.1 105.3 105.1
Tennessee 0-5 4-5 103.6 102.0 101.8 102.5
Vanderbilt 0-5 4-5 102.5 101.7 101.3 101.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 6-0 9-0 138.2 134.2 136.9 136.4
Auburn 5-1 7-2 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
L S U 3-2 6-3 117.0 114.9 117.6 116.5
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 112.9 113.3 113.1 113.1
Texas A&M 3-3 5-4 107.1 105.1 106.3 106.2
Ole Miss 2-4 4-5 105.0 103.5 103.6 104.0
Arkansas 1-4 4-5 98.8 98.0 98.0 98.3
             
SEC Averages     112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-2 95.8 96.7 97.3 96.6
Troy 4-1 7-2 95.1 95.3 94.5 95.0
Appalachian St. 4-1 5-4 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
N. Mexico St. 2-3 4-5 87.4 85.8 87.7 87.0
S. Alabama 2-3 3-6 84.4 86.7 84.3 85.1
Georgia St. 4-1 5-3 84.1 83.9 84.1 84.1
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-4 82.4 83.8 82.5 82.9
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-5 82.3 83.1 81.5 82.3
Idaho 2-3 3-6 80.9 82.0 81.7 81.5
Georgia Southern 0-4 0-8 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
Texas St. 1-4 2-7 73.3 75.4 72.6 73.8
Coastal Carolina 0-5 1-8 70.8 72.2 71.7 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.7 84.4 83.7 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.4 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 100.5 99.9 100.7 100.4
7 AAC 97.4 97.9 97.8 97.7
8 MWC 92.4 92.4 92.6 92.5
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.7 84.4 83.7 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Int’l. UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 San Diego St. Utah
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Wyoming
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Fla. Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Georgia St.] Southern Miss.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Cincinnati [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [California]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Boise St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UNLV] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Western Ky.] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Stanford
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Fresno St.] Washington St.
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy [Miami (O)]
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Arizona St.
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 NC State Auburn
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Colorado St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville LSU
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC TCU
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Ohio St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Clemson Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Georgia Notre Dame
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

A Great Weekend Ahead

After looking at the schedule for this week, the folks at the sports networks could call this one, “moving week.” There are numerous games where teams in contention for a playoff spot are facing tough, sometimes trap games. There are a host of games where the winner will stay in bowl contention, while fans of the loser can start thinking about basketball season, which begins this Friday.

Then, there is another interesting phenomenon. There are a host of teams that have six losses and must win out to get to 6-6 and get into a bowl. Most will lose again to fall out of the bowl picture, but until they get to seven losses, these teams will bring their A-games to the field. What that means is that a 3-6 team that is a 15-point underdog to a 6-3 team that is already bowl eligible but has no chance to win a division or conference might be ready to play its best game of the year and maybe pull off the upset. Even if they lose to go to 3-7, they might make it a close game and lose by single digits.

Here’s a look at the interesting games.
Game Involving Playoff Contenders Against Each Other
Notre Dame at Miami (Fla.)
The winner of this game takes a major step forward toward earning one of the magic four spots in the playoffs. The Irish have a home game with Notre Dame and a road game against Stanford remaining, while the Hurricanes have a home game with Virginia, and a road game against Pittsburgh (as well as needing to win the ACC Championship Game).

Games Important In Deciding Conference or Division Winner
Akron at Miami (O) & Toledo at Ohio U

Akron and Ohio are currently tied for the MAC East lead at 4-1. Miami (O) has 6 losses and must win out to become bowl eligible, while Toledo is still in contention for a New Year’s 6 Bowl if the Rockets win out and get help from other teams beating UCF, USF, and Memphis.

Washington at Stanford

Washington currently leads Stanford by a half game and Washington St. by a full game in the Pac-12 North.

Michigan St. at Ohio St.

Both teams are 5-1 in the Big Ten East and most likely out of playoff contention. The winner hasn’t wrapped up the division yet, as Michigan and Penn State are both one game back at 4-2.

TCU at Oklahoma
Both teams are 5-1 and tied for first in the Big 12. The winner almost assuredly makes the Big 12 Championship Game, while the loser will have to fight it out with Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. for the second spot.

Iowa St. at Oklahoma St.
Both teams are 4-2, and the winner stays in contention for second place, which in this league gets you into the Championship Game (WVU is also 4-2).

Potential Trap Games For Playoff Contenders
Alabama at Mississippi St.
Georgia at Auburn
The nation’s top two teams have trap games this week. Alabama had a tough home game with LSU and lost several key defensive players to injury. Plus, in the past five years, the teams that have upset the Crimson Tide have had top notch dual threat quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat quarterback.

Georgia beat South Carolina, and the Bulldogs were in control of the game with not much doubt of losing, but Coach Kirby Smart did not get the opportunity to empty his bench and rest his regulars. Now, the Bulldogs play at Auburn, where the Tigers are still in contention in the SEC West, but only if they beat Georgia.

Must Win Out To Stay In Bowl Contention
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan has six losses and must win out to become bowl eligible. The Eagles have winnable games with Miami (O) and Bowling Green remaining on their schedule, a CMU (5-4) loss could put the Chippewas in Jeopardy of getting to six wins.

Michigan at Maryland
Maryland is now 4-5 after losing to Rutgers, and this looks like loss number six. With remaining games against Michigan State in East Lansing and Penn State at home, the Terrapins have little chance of going 2-1 and getting to 6-6, but they aren’t eliminated yet. Michigan can still win the East Division, but they Wolverines must win out, including games against Wisconsin and Ohio St.

Florida at South Carolina
Florida has just five losses, but the Gators only play 11 games due to the hurricane earlier this year. Interim coach Randy Shannon fared little better than Jim McElwain, losing big to Missouri, so the chances of Florida winning out against South Carolina, UAB, and Florida St. are close to nil. Even the UAB game might be tough to win.

Indiana at Illinois
Indiana had a lot of near misses this year. The Hoosiers have some talented players, but their depth is not up to par with the teams ahead in the Big Ten East. Indiana sits at 3-6 and must win out against Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue. It’s possible, but the way the Boilermakers are playing, we believe Purdue will get revenge for their near miss last year.

Arkansas St. at South Alabama
South Alabama is 3-6 needs a big upset over 4-0/5-2 Arkansas St. and then must win on the road against winless Georgia Southern and a New Mexico St. team that most likely would also be playing for bowl contention. Coach Joey Jones has taken the Jaguars to multiple bowls in the past, but this year is looking bleak.

Florida St. at Clemson
Florida St. is in the same boat as rival Florida. The Seminoles have had their season turned upside down, losing a game to the hurricane as well as a quarterback very early in the season. The Seminoles must pull the playoff-destroying upset of Clemson to have a chance to make the season-ender with Florida meaningful. We will give FSU the win over Delaware St. on November 18.
Late Note–FSU may be able to reschedule their cancelled game with Louisiana-Monroe at the end of the regular season, so the Seminoles could still possibly get to 6-6 with wins over Delaware St., Florida, and UL-Monroe.

Probable Bowl Eliminator Games
Temple at Cincinnati
Temple is 4-5, while Cincinnati is 3-6. Obviously, the Bearcats must win out (East Carolina and UConn after TU). Temple was not really in contention for a bowl until the Owls thumped Navy. With Central Florida to follow this game, if TU loses to fall to 4-6, you can almost completely toss the Owls out of the bowl picture. But if TU wins this game to square their record at 5-5, then the Owls would have a chance to finish 6-6 by defeating Tulsa.

Wake Forest at Syracuse
Wake Forest is 5-4 and Syracuse is 4-5. The loser of this game technically can still make a bowl, but scheduling will make it very difficult. If the Demon Deacons win this game, they are bowl eligible, while a Syracuse win would mean the Orangemen would still have to beat either Louisville or Boston College.

Nebraska at Minnesota
Truth be told, we do not believe the winner of this game will win another game this year, so the 5-5 victor will most likely fall to 5-7. Nebraska must still play Penn St. and Iowa, while Minnesota has Northwestern and Wisconsin remaining.

Tennessee at Missouri
These two 4-5 teams are going in opposite directions. Missouri was expected to go 0-8 in the conference, while Tennessee was expected to compete for a division flag this year. Instead, the Tigers are two wins away from sneaking into a bowl with three winnable games left on their schedule. We feel Mizzou will win at least two if not all three and earn a bowl trip, while Tennessee will have a hard time getting their fifth win.

Can Get Into Bowl Contention With Win
BYU at UNLV
UNLV was not in the bowl picture until just two weeks ago, but now the Rebels have won consecutive games to improve to 4-5. The Rebels absolutely must win this game to get to 5-5 before finishing with road games against New Mexico and Nevada. At 5-5, they should be able to pick up one more win.

In Jeopardy of Missing Bowl With Loss
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is another team relegated to playing 11 games due to the hurricane. At 4-4, the Yellow Jackets need to finish 2-1 and will play at Duke before hosting Georgia. It’s not likely to happen for Paul Johnson this year.

Texas Tech at Baylor
Texas Tech has fallen to 4-5 and must finish 2-1 with closing games with TCU and Texas. Baylor finally won a game last week against lowly Kansas, but sometimes when a team opens the year with many losses before winning their first game, the next game turns out to be the best one they play. TTU needs to be prepared for an ambush in Waco this week. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s seat is simmering hot, and a loss in this game most likely sends him into unemployment. Even a win in this one might just delay the firing by a few weeks.

USC at Colorado
Colorado is 5-5 with a road game at Utah to follow this one. The Buffalos may have a better chance of upsetting the Trojans in Boulder than winning in SLC.

Arizona St. at UCLA
UCLA is 4-5 and has the combination of key injuries and team dissension. Coach Jim Mora, Jr. is more than likely not going to return as coach, especially with Chip Kelly available and with a supposed desire to coach on the West Coast. The Bruins have remaining games with USC and Cal, and it doesn’t look promising that the sons of Westwood will win two of these three.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 4-5 and must win two of three with games against Missouri and Tennessee following this one. The Missouri game now appears to be quite difficult, while Kentucky is playing for one of the top second tier bowls like the Outback and Taxslayer. Vanderbilt’s defense may have a hard time holding the Wildcats under 30 points and the Tigers under 40, so it could be 5-7 or 4-8 for the Commodores, unless they pull off the upset in this one.

Arkansas at LSU
Arkansas is in the same boat with Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri (all 4-5). The Razorbacks narrowly defeated one of the nation’s weakest FBS team in Coastal Carolina, so expecting Arky to win two of their final three (Mississippi St. & Missouri) is quite a stretch. The chance that Coach Bret Bielema will return in Fayetteville is a much larger stretch.

 

 

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October 30, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 31-November 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Kent St. Bowling Green 0.4 1.0 0.1
Ohio U Miami (O) 8.3 7.5 8.1
Western Michigan Central Michigan 10.7 8.6 11.4
Toledo Northern Illinois 12.7 12.9 13.5
Eastern Michigan Ball St. 29.2 26.7 28.6
Temple Navy -6.4 -6.7 -6.7
Troy Idaho 18.6 17.5 17.5
Florida Atlantic Marshall 7.1 7.8 6.9
Tulsa Memphis -7.0 -6.4 -7.9
Utah UCLA -0.9 1.1 -0.7
Kansas Baylor -12.3 -10.8 -13.3
North Carolina St. Clemson -7.7 -5.8 -7.1
Purdue Illinois 16.3 15.4 17.6
Kentucky Ole Miss 6.3 6.4 7.0
Florida St. Syracuse 7.6 8.4 6.8
Nebraska Northwestern -6.4 -4.5 -7.3
Iowa Ohio St. -22.9 -20.2 -23.2
West Virginia Iowa St. -0.1 0.6 -1.2
Miami (Fla.) Virginia Tech 1.1 -0.1 0.1
Rutgers Maryland -3.1 -4.5 -3.2
Virginia Georgia Tech -13.3 -11.4 -11.9
Boise St. Nevada 23.4 19.7 22.0
Arizona St. Colorado 0.7 1.7 2.5
Texas St. New Mexico St. -11.9 -8.1 -12.8
Georgia Southern Georgia St. -7.4 -5.6 -8.0
Louisiana-Monroe Appalachian St. -11.8 -9.2 -12.5
Old Dominion Charlotte 12.5 12.8 12.3
Tennessee Southern Miss. 23.3 20.4 21.0
Texas A&M Auburn -16.0 -15.9 -16.8
Air Force Army 1.4 1.6 1.3
Indiana Wisconsin -13.0 -10.0 -11.1
Tulane Cincinnati 9.7 7.9 8.8
Georgia South Carolina 22.7 23.8 24.0
Mississippi St. Massachusetts 28.5 29.5 28.6
SMU Central Florida -11.9 -12.9 -13.0
Vanderbilt Western Kentucky 13.4 12.6 11.2
Texas Tech Kansas St. -3.2 -3.2 -4.0
TCU Texas 5.3 3.1 5.0
Louisiana Tech North Texas 8.5 8.4 8.7
Washington Oregon 22.6 21.7 24.0
Arkansas Coastal Carolina 35.4 33.4 33.8
Michigan Minnesota 12.1 11.4 11.8
Oklahoma St. Oklahoma  4.7 4.6 5.1
Notre Dame Wake Forest 16.5 16.4 17.6
UAB Rice 3.2 5.4 4.9
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette 7.7 8.5 7.6
New Mexico Utah St. -1.6 -1.1 -0.7
Fresno St. BYU 8.8 7.9 9.9
UNLV Hawaii 5.7 6.3 6.1
Wyoming Colorado St. -0.9 -1.2 -1.9
Florida Int’l. UTSA -3.4 -5.2 -3.7
Middle Tennessee UTEP 15.3 13.7 15.7
Missouri Florida -6.5 -7.8 -6.4
Alabama LSU 25.8 23.5 24.1
Michigan St. Penn St. -22.5 -18.9 -22.2
San Jose St. San Diego St. -19.3 -19.3 -20.7
California Oregon St. 11.8 10.0 11.3
Washington St. Stanford -1.4 -2.3 -1.4
USC Arizona 12.9 13.8 13.6
Connecticut South Florida -23.2 -19.9 -24.1
Houston East Carolina 23.7 21.7 24.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

“Retro”

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 Ohio St.
6 Penn St.
7 Wisconsin
8 Central Florida
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma
13 TCU
14 Virginia Tech
15 USC
16 Iowa St.
17 Mississippi St.
18 Auburn
19 Michigan
20 Stanford
21 North Carolina St.
22 Memphis
23 Michigan St.
24 LSU
25 Washington St.
26 Boise St.
27 Iowa
28 Toledo
29 Arizona
30 South Florida
31 Northwestern
32 South Carolina
33 Georgia Tech
34 Wake Forest
35 Navy
36 Boston College
37 San Diego St.
38 West Virginia
39 Texas A&M
40 Texas
41 Oregon
42 Houston
43 Kentucky
44 UCLA
45 Arizona St.
46 SMU
47 Syracuse
48 Texas Tech
49 Louisville
50 Northern Illinois
51 Maryland
52 Troy
53 Florida
54 Nebraska
55 Florida Atlantic
56 Florida St.
57 Fresno St.
58 Pittsburgh
59 Colorado
60 Marshall
61 California
62 Western Michigan
63 Purdue
64 Colorado St.
65 Army
66 Indiana
67 Utah
68 Kansas St.
69 Minnesota
70 Arkansas St.
71 Wyoming
72 Air Force
73 Virginia
74 Ohio
75 Tennessee
76 Arkansas
77 Duke
78 Akron
79 North Texas
80 Florida Int’l.
81 Missouri
82 Ole Miss
83 Vanderbilt
84 UTSA
85 Appalachian St.
86 Tulane
87 Rutgers
88 Louisiana Tech
89 Southern Miss.
90 Utah St.
91 UAB
92 Georgia St.
93 Central Michigan
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Western Kentucky
96 Cincinnati
97 Tulsa
98 Temple
99 UNLV
100 North Carolina
101 Buffalo
102 Miami (O)
103 Middle Tennessee
104 New Mexico
105 New Mexico St.
106 Illinois
107 South Alabama
108 Connecticut
109 Oregon St.
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 BYU
113 Baylor
114 Hawaii
115 UL-Monroe
116 Idaho
117 Massachusetts
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Old Dominion
120 Kent St.
121 Bowling Green
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 San Jose St.
129 UTEP
130 Georgia Southern

Predictive

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 134.8 137.8 137.2
2 Ohio St. 135.7 133.3 135.8 134.9
3 Penn St. 129.8 127.6 130.7 129.4
4 Georgia 128.6 128.7 129.0 128.8
5 Washington 127.4 124.7 127.8 126.6
6 Clemson 127.6 125.0 127.1 126.6
7 Auburn 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
8 Oklahoma St. 124.4 123.3 125.2 124.3
9 Notre Dame 122.4 120.9 123.3 122.2
10 Virginia Tech 122.3 121.6 122.5 122.1
11 Oklahoma 121.7 120.7 122.1 121.5
12 Miami 120.4 118.5 119.6 119.5
13 Wisconsin 120.3 117.4 118.8 118.9
14 U S C 118.7 117.9 118.6 118.4
15 T C U 118.7 116.8 119.0 118.1
16 Stanford 118.8 117.4 118.2 118.1
17 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.2 116.9 116.7
18 Texas 115.8 116.2 116.5 116.2
19 Florida St. 116.6 115.7 115.1 115.8
20 L S U 116.2 114.3 116.7 115.7
21 Georgia Tech 116.4 114.0 115.2 115.2
22 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.6 114.6 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.1 114.5 114.4 114.0
24 Washington St. 114.4 112.1 113.8 113.4
25 Iowa State 112.9 112.8 114.2 113.3
26 Michigan 112.8 112.9 111.8 112.5
27 Louisville 111.8 110.9 111.6 111.4
28 Syracuse 112.0 110.3 111.4 111.2
29 Florida 111.0 110.4 110.2 110.5
30 Kansas St. 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
31 Northwestern 110.6 109.4 110.6 110.2
32 West Virginia 109.8 110.4 110.0 110.1
33 South Florida 110.0 108.8 110.8 109.9
34 Iowa 109.8 110.1 109.5 109.8
35 Boston College 109.6 109.3 109.6 109.5
36 Wake Forest 109.0 107.4 108.7 108.3
37 Arizona 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
38 S. Carolina 108.4 107.4 107.5 107.8
39 Oregon 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
40 Kentucky 107.5 106.3 106.6 106.8
41 Texas A&M 107.4 105.4 106.6 106.5
42 Memphis 106.5 105.9 107.0 106.4
43 Colorado 107.7 106.0 105.6 106.4
44 Boise St. 106.8 105.1 106.8 106.2
45 Pittsburgh 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.1
46 Duke 106.3 105.6 105.0 105.6
47 U C L A 106.0 105.2 105.4 105.5
48 Michigan St. 104.3 105.7 105.5 105.2
49 Arizona St. 105.4 104.6 105.1 105.0
50 Toledo 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
51 Indiana 104.3 104.5 104.7 104.5
52 Texas Tech 104.2 104.1 103.4 103.9
53 Minnesota 103.7 104.5 103.0 103.7
54 Ole Miss 104.2 102.9 102.6 103.2
55 California 104.4 102.3 102.5 103.1
56 Tennessee 104.2 102.5 102.4 103.0
57 Houston 103.0 102.5 103.2 102.9
58 Purdue 102.7 102.9 102.9 102.8
59 Utah 102.1 103.3 101.7 102.4
60 Navy 101.7 102.4 101.9 102.0
61 Vanderbilt 102.4 101.6 101.1 101.7
62 Colo. State 102.0 101.0 101.9 101.6
63 Maryland 101.1 102.4 100.8 101.4
64 Arkansas 101.8 101.0 101.0 101.3
65 Nebraska 101.1 102.0 100.3 101.1
66 Missouri 101.5 99.6 100.8 100.6
67 N. Carolina 100.9 100.0 99.8 100.2
68 Virginia 100.1 99.6 100.3 100.0
69 Western Michigan 99.6 98.4 100.7 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.0 99.1 99.7 99.3
71 SMU 98.2 98.6 98.5 98.4
72 Wyoming 99.1 97.8 98.0 98.3
73 Army 98.0 98.1 98.5 98.2
74 Baylor 97.2 98.9 97.2 97.8
75 Florida Atlantic 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
76 Air Force 96.3 96.7 96.8 96.6
77 Tulsa 96.4 96.5 96.0 96.3
78 Arkansas St. 95.5 96.4 97.0 96.3
79 Eastern Michigan 96.0 95.6 96.4 96.0
80 Ohio U 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
81 Troy 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7
82 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
83 Oregon St. 95.6 95.3 94.2 95.0
84 Fresno St. 94.8 93.9 95.4 94.7
85 Appalachian St. 95.2 93.7 95.1 94.7
86 Tulane 94.1 94.2 94.4 94.2
87 Northern Illinois 93.9 93.8 94.8 94.1
88 U T S A 92.3 94.4 93.5 93.4
89 Temple 92.7 93.2 92.7 92.9
90 Marshall 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
91 Central Michigan 91.4 92.3 91.8 91.8
92 Utah St. 92.1 91.3 91.7 91.7
93 W. Kentucky 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
94 Miami (O) 88.6 90.7 89.9 89.7
95 Illinois 89.4 90.5 88.3 89.4
96 Louisiana Tech 88.5 90.2 89.3 89.4
97 BYU 89.1 89.0 88.5 88.8
98 Massachusetts 88.8 88.1 89.0 88.6
99 Cincinnati 87.3 89.3 88.6 88.4
100 Akron 87.0 89.4 87.5 88.0
101 U N L V 87.2 88.8 87.4 87.8
102 Nevada 86.4 88.4 87.9 87.5
103 New Mexico 87.4 87.2 88.0 87.5
104 N. Mexico St. 87.5 85.9 87.8 87.1
105 Florida Int’l. 86.4 86.6 87.3 86.8
106 Buffalo 85.1 87.4 87.1 86.5
107 S. Alabama 85.7 88.0 85.7 86.5
108 Hawaii 85.0 86.0 84.8 85.3
109 Middle Tennessee 84.5 85.7 85.1 85.1
110 Connecticut 83.8 85.9 83.7 84.5
111 Southern Miss. 83.9 85.1 84.4 84.4
112 Georgia St. 84.3 84.0 84.3 84.2
113 N. Texas 83.1 84.8 83.6 83.8
114 Old Dominion 82.2 84.8 82.3 83.1
115 East Carolina 82.3 83.9 82.1 82.8
116 Kansas 81.9 85.0 80.9 82.6
117 UL-Lafayette 81.1 82.5 81.1 81.6
118 Idaho 80.2 81.4 80.9 80.8
119 UL-Monroe 80.4 81.5 79.5 80.5
120 Bowling Green 78.9 79.8 79.3 79.3
121 Kent St. 77.2 78.8 77.5 77.8
122 UAB 75.7 79.0 77.7 77.5
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.0 76.1 75.3 75.5
125 Georgia Southern 74.4 75.9 73.8 74.7
126 Texas St. 73.2 75.3 72.5 73.7
127 U T E P 72.1 75.0 72.4 73.2
128 Charlotte 72.2 74.5 72.5 73.1
129 Ball St. 69.3 71.4 70.3 70.3
130 Coastal Carolina 69.3 70.7 70.2 70.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 7-0 113.1 114.5 114.4 114.0
South Florida 4-1 7-1 110.0 108.8 110.8 109.9
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.7 93.2 92.7 92.9
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.3 89.3 88.6 88.4
Connecticut 2-3 3-5 83.8 85.9 83.7 84.5
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.3 83.9 82.1 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 4-1 7-1 106.5 105.9 107.0 106.4
Houston 3-2 5-3 103.0 102.5 103.2 102.9
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.7 102.4 101.9 102.0
SMU 3-1 6-2 98.2 98.6 98.5 98.4
Tulsa 1-4 2-7 96.4 96.5 96.0 96.3
Tulane 1-3 3-5 94.1 94.2 94.4 94.2
             
AAC Averages     97.4 98.0 97.8 97.7
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 5-1 7-1 127.6 125.0 127.1 126.6
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-2 116.9 116.2 116.9 116.7
Florida St. 2-4 2-5 116.6 115.7 115.1 115.8
Louisville 2-4 5-4 111.8 110.9 111.6 111.4
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 112.0 110.3 111.4 111.2
Boston College 3-3 5-4 109.6 109.3 109.6 109.5
Wake Forest 2-3 5-3 109.0 107.4 108.7 108.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 3-1 7-1 122.3 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 5-0 7-0 120.4 118.5 119.6 119.5
Georgia Tech 3-2 4-3 116.4 114.0 115.2 115.2
Pittsburgh 2-3 4-5 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.1
Duke 1-5 4-5 106.3 105.6 105.0 105.6
N. Carolina 0-6 1-8 100.9 100.0 99.8 100.2
Virginia 2-2 5-3 100.1 99.6 100.3 100.0
             
ACC Averages     112.6 111.4 112.0 112.0
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 4-1 7-1 124.4 123.3 125.2 124.3
Oklahoma 4-1 7-1 121.7 120.7 122.1 121.5
T C U 4-1 7-1 118.7 116.8 119.0 118.1
Texas 3-2 4-4 115.8 116.2 116.5 116.2
Iowa State 4-1 5-3 112.9 112.8 114.2 113.3
Kansas St. 2-3 4-4 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
West Virginia 3-2 5-3 109.8 110.4 110.0 110.1
Texas Tech 1-4 4-4 104.2 104.1 103.4 103.9
Baylor 0-5 0-8 97.2 98.9 97.2 97.8
Kansas 0-5 1-7 81.9 85.0 80.9 82.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.9 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-0 7-1 135.7 133.3 135.8 134.9
Penn St. 4-1 7-1 129.8 127.6 130.7 129.4
Michigan 3-2 6-2 112.8 112.9 111.8 112.5
Michigan St. 4-1 6-2 104.3 105.7 105.5 105.2
Indiana 0-5 3-5 104.3 104.5 104.7 104.5
Maryland 2-3 4-4 101.1 102.4 100.8 101.4
Rutgers 2-3 3-5 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 5-0 8-0 120.3 117.4 118.8 118.9
Northwestern 3-2 5-3 110.6 109.4 110.6 110.2
Iowa 2-3 5-3 109.8 110.1 109.5 109.8
Minnesota 1-4 4-4 103.7 104.5 103.0 103.7
Purdue 1-4 3-5 102.7 102.9 102.9 102.8
Nebraska 3-2 4-4 101.1 102.0 100.3 101.1
Illinois 0-5 2-6 89.4 90.5 88.3 89.4
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 4-0 5-3 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
Marshall 3-1 6-2 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
W. Kentucky 3-2 5-3 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
Florida Int’l. 3-1 5-2 86.4 86.6 87.3 86.8
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.5 85.7 85.1 85.1
Old Dominion 0-4 2-6 82.2 84.8 82.3 83.1
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.2 74.5 72.5 73.1
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-2 5-2 92.3 94.4 93.5 93.4
Louisiana Tech 2-2 4-4 88.5 90.2 89.3 89.4
Southern Miss. 3-2 5-3 83.9 85.1 84.4 84.4
N. Texas 4-1 5-3 83.1 84.8 83.6 83.8
UAB 3-1 5-2 75.7 79.0 77.7 77.5
Rice 1-3 1-7 75.0 76.1 75.3 75.5
U T E P 0-4 0-8 72.1 75.0 72.4 73.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   7-1 122.4 120.9 123.3 122.2
Army   6-2 98.0 98.1 98.5 98.2
BYU   2-7 89.1 89.0 88.5 88.8
Massachusetts   2-6 88.8 88.1 89.0 88.6
             
Independents Averages     99.6 99.0 99.8 99.5
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.6 90.7 89.9 89.7
Akron 4-1 5-4 87.0 89.4 87.5 88.0
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 85.1 87.4 87.1 86.5
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.9 79.8 79.3 79.3
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.2 78.8 77.5 77.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-0 7-1 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.6 98.4 100.7 99.6
Eastern Michigan 0-4 2-6 96.0 95.6 96.4 96.0
Northern Illinois 4-0 6-2 93.9 93.8 94.8 94.1
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.4 92.3 91.8 91.8
Ball St. 0-4 2-6 69.3 71.4 70.3 70.3
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-0 6-2 106.8 105.1 106.8 106.2
Colo. State 4-1 6-3 102.0 101.0 101.9 101.6
Wyoming 3-1 5-3 99.1 97.8 98.0 98.3
Air Force 3-2 4-4 96.3 96.7 96.8 96.6
Utah St. 2-3 4-5 92.1 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-4 3-5 87.4 87.2 88.0 87.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 3-2 7-2 99.0 99.1 99.7 99.3
Fresno St. 4-1 5-3 94.8 93.9 95.4 94.7
U N L V 2-3 3-5 87.2 88.8 87.4 87.8
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.4 88.4 87.9 87.5
Hawaii 1-4 3-5 85.0 86.0 84.8 85.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-8 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 4-1 7-1 127.4 124.7 127.8 126.6
Stanford 5-1 6-2 118.8 117.4 118.2 118.1
Washington St. 3-2 6-2 114.4 112.1 113.8 113.4
Oregon 2-4 5-4 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
California 1-5 4-5 104.4 102.3 102.5 103.1
Oregon St. 0-5 1-7 95.6 95.3 94.2 95.0
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 5-1 7-2 118.7 117.9 118.6 118.4
Arizona 4-1 6-2 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
Colorado 2-4 5-4 107.7 106.0 105.6 106.4
U C L A 2-3 4-4 106.0 105.2 105.4 105.5
Arizona St. 3-2 4-4 105.4 104.6 105.1 105.0
Utah 1-4 4-4 102.1 103.3 101.7 102.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 5-0 8-0 128.6 128.7 129.0 128.8
Florida 3-3 3-4 111.0 110.4 110.2 110.5
S. Carolina 4-2 6-2 108.4 107.4 107.5 107.8
Kentucky 3-2 6-2 107.5 106.3 106.6 106.8
Tennessee 0-5 3-5 104.2 102.5 102.4 103.0
Vanderbilt 0-5 3-5 102.4 101.6 101.1 101.7
Missouri 0-4 3-5 101.5 99.6 100.8 100.6
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 139.0 134.8 137.8 137.2
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
L S U 3-1 6-2 116.2 114.3 116.7 115.7
Mississippi St. 3-2 6-2 114.3 114.6 114.6 114.5
Texas A&M 3-2 5-3 107.4 105.4 106.6 106.5
Ole Miss 1-4 3-5 104.2 102.9 102.6 103.2
Arkansas 1-4 3-5 101.8 101.0 101.0 101.3
             
SEC Averages     112.3 111.0 111.7 111.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 96.4 97.0 96.3
Troy 3-1 6-2 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-3 95.2 93.7 95.1 94.7
N. Mexico St. 1-3 3-5 87.5 85.9 87.8 87.1
S. Alabama 2-2 3-5 85.7 88.0 85.7 86.5
Georgia St. 3-1 4-3 84.3 84.0 84.3 84.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 81.1 82.5 81.1 81.6
Idaho 2-2 3-5 80.2 81.4 80.9 80.8
UL-Monroe 3-3 3-5 80.4 81.5 79.5 80.5
Georgia Southern 0-3 0-7 74.4 75.9 73.8 74.7
Texas St. 1-3 2-6 73.2 75.3 72.5 73.7
Coastal Carolina 0-5 1-7 69.3 70.7 70.2 70.1
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.6 84.3 83.6 83.8

PiRate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.6 111.4 112.0 112.0
2 SEC 112.3 111.0 111.7 111.7
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.9 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 99.6 99.0 99.8 99.5
7 AAC 97.4 98.0 97.8 97.7
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.6 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Troy
Cure AAC SBC Navy Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Utah St.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [UAB] [Miami (O)]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tennessee]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Georgia St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida Air Force
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Utah] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Michigan] [Western Ky.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Tech Colorado
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Wake Forest [Southern Miss.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Nebraska
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Fresno St.] Washington St.
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Houston Boston College
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan St. Arizona
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Miami (Fla.) South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Iowa Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [Arizona St.]
Cotton At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Clemson
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Auburn
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 North Carolina St. Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Texas A&M
Peach At-large At-large Wisconsin Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Northwestern Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Georgia Ohio St.
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It has become an annual inclusion in the PiRate Ratings, printed on the first November weekend of every season, to post the famous football poem concerning the old Oakland Raiders from their heyday.  Since, we are only posting ratings and spreads without commentary in the NFL reports, we will include this poem today.

The Autumn Wind

By Steve Sabol

The Autumn Wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea,
With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weather beaten.
He wears a hooded sash,
With a silver hat about his head,
And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,
A villain big and bold.
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,
As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a Radier,
Pillaging just for fun.
He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,
And laugh when he’s conquered and won.


Another annual November rite includes the adding of Mid-American Conference football games Tuesdays and Wednesdays, so that from last Thursday, a football fan can watch some college or pro game every day of the week.  Of course, with the incredible World Series going on at the current time, who would watch Sunday Night Football, or the Tuesday (and maybe Wednesday) MAC games?

This week features another great slate of college football games.  There are Playoff eliminators, bowl eliminators, and bowl positioning games.  Additionally, there are possibilities where additional coaches could be let go before the end of the season, as the Chip Kelly Sweepstakes has now begun in earnest.

In case you haven’t heard, Florida let Jim McElwain go after the cocktail party in Jacksonville failed to serve any appetizers to the Gators.  The Bulldogs did all the eating, and Randy Shannon will now guide the Gators until the season ends.  That ending now looks to be against Florida State and not in a bowl game, as the Gators are now 3-4 with only 11 games to be played due to the hurricane.

Speaking of Florida State, the Seminoles also may finish play against Florida.  It looks like FSU could be heading toward a 5-6 record and not earn a bowl bid.

The top game this week has to be Bedlam.  Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State, and the winner stays in contention for a Playoff spot, while the loser hopes to be able to finish in second place to possibly earn a rematch with the winner in the Big 12 Championship. Game.

This past weekend saw Penn State, South Florida, and TCU fall from the unbeaten ranks, leaving Alabama, Georgia, Central Florida, Miami, and Wisconsin as the final five undefeated teams.  You will notice in our bowl projections, we have removed UCF from the New Year’s 6 Bowl in favor of Memphis, after this past weekend saw FCS school Austin Peay hang 33 points on the Knights.  Toledo is still very much alive in the Group of 5 race for the one NY6 bowl bid.

Our prognosticators here on the ship have looked through the spyglass, and they see some rough waters ahead for both Wisconsin and Miami, so it could be that the last two unbeaten teams just may square off prior to the Playoffs with the loser having a shot at revenge in the National Championship Game.

The Playoff Committee has never selected two teams from the same conference in the short history of NCAA Playoffs, but if Alabama and Georgia run the table in the regular season, and when they face off in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, they are the last two undefeated teams and ranked number one and number two, the loser would have a better than 50-50 chance of remaining in the top four, maybe even at number two!

Notre Dame is probably at the top of the one-loss team hierarchy in the Playoff race.  Their lone loss is by one point to Georgia, and if they win out, their strength of schedule should be enough to give them a Playoff invitation.

As for the fourth spot, how can you deny Oklahoma, if the Sooners win out, or Oklahoma State if the Cowboys win out?  Ohio State lost at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes need for the Sooners to lose again.  However, if Oklahoma State is the team that beats OU, and OSU wins out, it would be difficult not to include Mike Gundy’s team in as the fourth seed.

Then, there is Clemson.  The Tigers made it into the field last year with a 12-1 record, so wouldn’t it be the right thing to do to include the reigning national champion in the Playoff it is has the identical record to last season?

Ohio State can still improve its position with wins over Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but the Buckeyes realistically need for the Big 12 to produce a two-loss champion, and they might even need the ACC to do so as well.

There are some other interesting possibilities.  Georgia has to play at Auburn, and the Tigers could be playing for Coach Guz Malzahn’s job.  The Bulldogs must also face arch-rival Georgia Tech.  Alabama has tough games remaining against LSU this week, Mississippi State, and Auburn.  As dominant as the Crimson Tide have been in the Nick Saban era, they have only run the table one time, back in 2009.

The PiRate Lasses (5 wonderfully, brilliant, fun-loving ladies that give the Captain a hard time) demanded that some notice was made of their Money Line Parlays this past weekend.  They hit on 3 out of the 4 and came within an overtime of going 4-0.  Best of all, their two-team underdog parlay hit and paid off at +375 odds, so for the year, the parlay selections have gone from red numbers to black numbers.  Obviously, the Captain has lost control of the Thursday edition here, and you can expect to see the ladies do the game-picking for the rest of the season, or at least until their run of pure luck runs out.

October 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 26-28, 2017

Oh brother!  I leave my ladies in charge of the website for a few days, and when I return from a nice long weekend, they have rearranged all the e-furniture.  Worse, they exchanged the Money Line picks I had left with their own, and they actually enjoyed a winning week.  They issued four selections (totally different than what I had left to be published), and they won two of the four for a return on investment of 28%.

Believe me, I have not heard the end of this.  Mrs. Captain, of course, sided with her gender, and so this week, I must defer to the ladies to pick the parlays yet again.  All I have done is to organize their picks into the best possible parlay odds by sourcing the best odds from the available books.  What you have as a result are four more parlays, each returning greater than +120 odds (actually this week better than +150) while playing no more than three games per parlay.

Because the ladies selected to teams to win outright as underdogs, and to minimize risk, I have combined these two underdogs in one parlay that, if it wins, it would return an incredible payoff at +375 (a $100 investment would return $475).

One preface to this before you look at the parlays.  Two of the ladies here bleed scarlet and gray and believe that the Giant Horseshoe is a basilica, tabernacle, shrine, and temple.  They believe that script Ohio is akin to the holy scriptures.  Their key pick this week is Ohio State over Penn State, and to add to their partiality, they refer to the opponent at State Pen, and they believe James Franklin was set on Earth by Lucifer.

Personally, I see the Buckeyes ready to get their revenge, but I know Coach Franklin and have seen him work miracles at Vanderbilt.  If he could win at Georgia and Florida as a bigger underdog than his Nittany Lions will be tomorrow, then he can certainly channel his inner Tom Lasorda and get his team ready to run through the walls at said horseshoe.  I would not have selected this game as part of a parlay, but then I have ceded control of this submission to the lasses.

#1 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Marshall
Georgia Florida
#2 @ +162  
Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Vanderbilt
Notre Dame NC State
Texas Baylor
#3 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Iowa Minnesota
Ohio St. Penn St.
#4 @ +375  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Michigan St.
Wyoming New Mexico

Money Line Parlay Tutorial for newcomers to this site

If you are new to Money Lines and Parlays, hopefully this will explain it well enough for you to understand what is going on above.

When two sports teams play, the more familiar way to provide options for wagering is a pointspread.  For instance, say that Notre Dame is playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Alabama might be favored to win by 6 1/2 points.  In order for Alabama to win the game for those that bet on the Crimson Tide, they would have to win by 7 or more points.  If Notre Dame won or lost by 6 points or less, then those that wagered on Notre Dame would win their bets.

There is another way to bet on this game.  It is called the “Money Line.”  Pointspreads are not used.  Instead, you simply pick either Alabama or Notre Dame to win the game.  If you can bet on Alabama to win this game, even by one point, it sounds too good to be true.  Yes, there is a catch here.  In order to bet on Alabama, you must put up more money than the sports book, but if you bet on the underdog Irish to win the game, the book puts up more money than you.  This is why the wager is called a “money line.”

When you look at money line odds, the favorite will have a minus number, and the underdog will have a plus number, although there are times when a tossup game will have two minus numbers.  The reason for this is that the sports books must get their cut or vigorish.

Let’s look at a couple games to be played tonight.  Northern Illinois hosts Eastern Michigan, and NIU is a modest favorite.  The Money Line is available at about 15 sports books where one could make a wager in one’s home via the Internet.  The line may vary from site to sire, so it is best to shop around to find the best odds.

For our purposes in this tutorial, we will use one famous online sports book, Five Dimes.  At the present time, the Money Line odds at 5D for the NIU-EMU game is listed at:   Northern Illinois -275, Eastern Michigan +235.

If you want to wager on NIU, you must put up $275 for every $100 5 Dimes puts up.  If you wager $100 on NIU to win, you will $36.36 profit and receive back $136.36 if NIU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.  If you wager $100 on EMU to win, you will receive $275 profit and receive back $375 if EMU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.

When you combine two or more games into one money line wager, your odds improve, but your chances of winning all the games in the one wager go down.  Let’s say you want to combine three favorites into one betting wager.  Let’s say you are going to play a parlay that includes Favorite #1 at -250, Favorite #2 at -225, and Favorite #3 at -180.

How do yo determine what the odds would be on this parlay of three favorites, all of whom would have to win their games for you to win your wager?  I won’t bore you with the mathematical formula.  There is an easy way to figure the odds, and it is called a parlay calculator.  You don’t have to buy this from a Las Vegas book store.  They are available for free in many places online.  In our opinion, the parlay calculator at Vegasinsider.com is the easiest one to use.  You can find this calculator at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

First, we select $100 for the bet amount (you can put any other amount in this spot, but all of the PiRate Rating parlays are played at $100 per wager.  We simply input -250, -225-, and -180 adjacent to Team #1 Money Line, Team #2 Money Line, and Team #3 Money Line.  Then we click on “Calculate”, and we see the number $214.57 returned.  This means that if these three favorites we have selected all win their games, we will make a $214.57 profit and receive $314.57 in our account (The profit plus what we wagered).  If the three teams do not all win their games, we will be out the $100 we invested on this game.  It can be a headache to see two teams win their games, and then your final favored team loses in an upset due to a fourth quarter field goal, but it happens, and you have to live with it.

Our goal at the PiRate Ratings is to select parlays that return better than +120 odds, while betting mostly on favored teams.  We prefer to play no more than three games in a parlay, but there are times when we might play 6 or 7 prohibitive favorites when the odds look preferable.  We won a 7-team parlay once that returned +200 odds, and all 7 teams won by double-digits.  Of course, this is a rare event.  Every week, some big underdog will upset a favorite.  In recent weeks, we had some considerable underdogs pulling off big upsets.  Syracuse surprised Clemson.  Arizona State beat up on Washington, Arizona took out Washington State, Tulsa whipped Houston, Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Troy beat LSU.  These sure things that could have been included on parlays destroyed the selections.

As usual, read this and understand it: The PiRates never wager real currency on our selections.  We enjoy the fun that mathematics married to athletics brings a group of math geeks.  We only wager imaginary money on these games, and thus we have no worries about issuing these picks.  They are strictly for the fun of it, and enjoying a winning week is a win for mathematics and not our bank accounts.

Enjoy the games, but be just as wealthy on Sunday morning as you are on Saturday morning.

 

October 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Toledo -29.0 -26.8 -29.3
Georgia St. South Alabama -0.7 -3.5 -1.1
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.3 1.6
Oregon St. Stanford -25.0 -23.9 -25.8
Boston College Florida St. -11.7 -10.5 -10.5
Memphis Tulane 12.3 11.5 11.9
SMU Tulsa 4.6 4.9 5.2
Purdue Nebraska 5.4 4.3 7.0
Kentucky Tennessee 6.4 6.9 7.7
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.8 8.6 9.2
Akron Buffalo 4.2 4.3 2.7
South Florida Houston 13.5 12.7 14.7
Wake Forest Louisville -3.4 -3.8 -3.6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) -19.1 -17.9 -19.6
Michigan Rutgers 20.0 20.2 19.5
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13.2 14.2 14.3
Massachusetts Appalachian St. -4.6 -3.5 -4.3
Pittsburgh Virginia 6.2 6.9 5.1
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.0 13.8 14.7
Connecticut Missouri -9.8 -5.3 -8.6
West Virginia Oklahoma St. -11.3 -9.7 -12.0
Maryland Indiana -0.9 0.4 -1.6
Virginia Tech Duke 18.5 18.7 20.2
Illinois Wisconsin -30.8 -26.5 -30.8
Coastal Carolina Texas St. 3.9 2.4 6.4
Deleted Game 0 0 0
Kansas Kansas St. -29.6 -26.4 -30.5
Iowa Minnesota 9.5 8.5 10.0
Wyoming New Mexico 7.2 6.1 5.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -3.1 -6.4 -4.3
BYU San Jose St. 15.0 14.8 15.1
UTEP UTSA -18.4 -17.3 -19.5
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe 1.8 2.5 3.3
Colorado St. Air Force 15.8 14.0 15.6
Southern Miss. UAB 17.4 15.2 15.8
Colorado California 3.9 4.7 3.2
Arizona St. USC -5.0 -5.3 -4.7
Rice Louisiana Tech -10.8 -11.4 -11.3
Oregon Utah 5.3 1.8 3.9
Notre Dame N. Carolina St. 5.7 4.9 6.3
Washington UCLA 23.7 21.8 24.7
Troy Georgia Southern 23.8 22.5 24.0
Northwestern Michigan St. 10.4 7.1 9.5
Deleted Game 0 0 0
North Texas Old Dominion 3.4 2.7 3.9
Baylor Texas -12.9 -11.7 -13.7
Iowa St. TCU -6.6 -4.1 -6.1
Florida (n) Georgia -12.3 -13.6 -13.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 0.6 -2.3 0.1
Arizona Washington St. -10.0 -8.7 -10.7
Oklahoma Texas Tech 20.3 19.3 21.5
Ole Miss Arkansas 6.4 5.5 5.6
Ohio St. Penn St. 9.0 8.4 7.8
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 1.4 -1.5 0.5
Utah St. Boise St. -6.4 -5.5 -6.4
Fresno St. UNLV 16.4 12.9 17.4
Hawaii San Diego St. -7.1 -6.2 -8.0
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Florida Austin Peay 41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Penn St.
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Notre Dame
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Central Florida
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Michigan St.
15 Stanford
16 Virginia Tech
17 North Carolina St.
18 Washington St.
19 USC
20 Auburn
21 South Florida
22 Michigan
23 Texas A&M
24 Mississippi St.
25 LSU
26 Iowa St.
27 Memphis
28 Georgia Tech
29 Toledo
30 West Virginia
31 Iowa
32 Boise St.
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona St.
35 Navy
36 Louisville
37 Fresno St.
38 San Diego St.
39 Arizona
40 Florida St.
41 Wake Forest
42 Texas
43 Northwestern
44 UCLA
45 Florida
46 Boston College
47 Texas Tech
48 Marshall
49 Colorado St.
50 Kentucky
51 SMU
52 Syracuse
53 Oregon
54 Northern Illinois
55 Indiana
56 California
57 Utah
58 Purdue
59 Virginia
60 Western Michigan
61 Houston
62 Troy
63 Minnesota
64 Maryland
65 Appalachian St.
66 Kansas St.
67 Army
68 Florida Atlantic
69 Duke
70 Pittsburgh
71 Southern Miss.
72 Nebraska
73 Colorado
74 Tennessee
75 Ohio
76 Ole Miss
77 Arkansas St.
78 Vanderbilt
79 Tulane
80 Akron
81 Arkansas
82 Air Force
83 Rutgers
84 Wyoming
85 North Texas
86 Utah St.
87 UTSA
88 New Mexico
89 Louisiana Tech
90 Florida Int’l.
91 Western Kentucky
92 Missouri
93 Tulsa
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Central Michigan
96 Cincinnati
97 Temple
98 North Carolina
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico St.
101 Miami (O)
102 Georgia St.
103 Middle Tennessee
104 South Alabama
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 UL-Monroe
109 UAB
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 UNLV
113 Hawaii
114 Oregon St.
115 BYU
116 UL-Lafayette
117 Old Dominion
118 Kent St.
119 Idaho
120 Bowling Green
121 Massachusetts
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Charlotte
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Georgia Southern
130 Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
3 Penn St. 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
4 Georgia 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
5 Washington 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
6 Clemson 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
7 Auburn 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
8 Oklahoma St. 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
9 Virginia Tech 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
10 Oklahoma 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
11 Miami 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
12 Notre Dame 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
13 Wisconsin 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
14 Stanford 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
15 T C U 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
16 Florida St. 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
17 N. Carolina St. 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
18 Washington St. 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
19 U S C 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
20 L S U 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
21 Georgia Tech 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
22 Texas 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
24 Florida 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
25 Louisville 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
26 Michigan 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
27 Kansas St. 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
29 Iowa State 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
30 Mississippi St. 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
31 Syracuse 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
32 Northwestern 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
33 West Virginia 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
34 Iowa 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
35 Texas A&M 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
36 Arizona St. 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
37 S. Carolina 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
38 Kentucky 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
39 Wake Forest 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
40 U C L A 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
41 Boston College 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
42 Duke 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
43 Colo. State 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
44 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
45 Oregon 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
46 Indiana 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
47 Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
48 Michigan St. 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
49 Memphis 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
50 Utah 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
51 Arizona 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
52 California 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
53 Texas Tech 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
54 Minnesota 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
55 Ole Miss 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
56 Purdue 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
59 Toledo 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
60 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
61 Virginia 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
62 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
63 Houston 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
64 Maryland 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
65 Arkansas 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
66 Nebraska 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
67 Baylor 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
68 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
69 N. Carolina 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
70 SMU 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
71 San Diego St. 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
72 Army 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
73 Missouri 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
74 Fresno St. 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
75 Tulsa 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Eastern Michigan 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
77 Florida Atlantic 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
78 Tulane 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
79 Troy 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
80 Ohio U 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
82 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
83 Marshall 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
84 Appalachian St. 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
85 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
86 Northern Illinois 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
87 Utah St. 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
88 U T S A 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
89 Air Force 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
90 W. Kentucky 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
91 Temple 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
92 Oregon St. 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
93 Central Michigan 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
94 New Mexico 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
95 Miami (O) 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
96 Louisiana Tech 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
97 BYU 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
98 Massachusetts 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
99 Cincinnati 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
100 Illinois 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
101 N. Mexico St. 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
103 Akron 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
104 S. Alabama 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
105 Nevada 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
106 Connecticut 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
107 Buffalo 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
108 Hawaii 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
109 U N L V 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
110 Middle Tennessee 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
111 Florida Int’l. 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
112 N. Texas 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
113 Old Dominion 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
114 Georgia St. 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
115 East Carolina 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
116 UL-Lafayette 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
117 Kansas 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
118 UL-Monroe 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
119 Idaho 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
120 Bowling Green 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
121 Kent St. 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
122 San Jose St. 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
123 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
124 Georgia Southern 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
125 UAB 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
126 U T E P 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
129 Ball St. 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
130 Texas St. 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 6-0 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
South Florida 4-0 7-0 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
Connecticut 2-3 3-4 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 3-1 6-1 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
Houston 2-2 4-3 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
SMU 2-1 5-2 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
Tulsa 1-3 2-6 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
Florida St. 2-3 2-4 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
Louisville 2-3 5-3 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
Wake Forest 1-3 4-3 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
Boston College 2-3 4-4 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 2-1 6-1 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 4-0 6-0 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
Duke 1-4 4-4 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
Pittsburgh 1-3 3-5 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
Virginia 2-1 5-2 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
N. Carolina 0-5 1-7 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 3-1 6-1 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
T C U 4-0 7-0 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
Texas 2-2 3-4 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
Kansas St. 1-3 3-4 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
Iowa State 3-1 5-2 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
West Virginia 3-1 5-2 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
Texas Tech 1-3 4-3 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
Baylor 0-4 0-7 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
Kansas 0-4 1-6 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
Penn St. 4-0 7-0 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
Michigan 2-2 5-2 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
Indiana 0-4 3-4 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
Michigan St. 4-0 6-1 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
Maryland 1-3 3-4 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
Rutgers 2-2 3-4 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-0 7-0 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
Northwestern 2-2 4-3 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
Iowa 1-3 4-3 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
Minnesota 1-3 4-3 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
Purdue 1-3 3-4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
Illinois 0-4 2-5 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 3-0 4-3 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
Marshall 3-0 6-1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
W. Kentucky 3-1 5-2 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
Old Dominion 0-3 2-5 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 1-2 4-2 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
Louisiana Tech 1-2 3-4 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
Southern Miss. 3-1 5-2 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
N. Texas 3-1 4-3 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
Rice 1-2 1-6 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
U T E P 0-3 0-7 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
Army   6-2 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
BYU   1-7 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
Massachusetts   1-6 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
             
Indep. Averages     99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
Akron 3-1 4-4 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-1 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 2-5 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
Ball St. 0-3 2-5 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 4-0 6-2 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
Boise St. 3-0 5-2 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
Wyoming 2-1 4-3 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
Utah St. 2-2 4-4 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
Air Force 2-2 3-4 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
New Mexico 1-3 3-4 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-2 6-2 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
Fresno St. 4-0 5-2 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
U N L V 1-3 2-5 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
Stanford 4-1 5-2 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
Oregon 1-4 4-4 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
California 1-4 4-4 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-2 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
Arizona St. 3-1 4-3 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
U C L A 2-2 4-3 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
Colorado 1-4 4-4 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
Utah 1-3 4-3 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
Arizona 3-1 5-2 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
Florida 3-2 3-3 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
Kentucky 2-2 5-2 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
Missouri 0-4 2-5 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
L S U 3-1 6-2 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
Mississippi St. 2-2 5-2 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
Arkansas 0-4 2-5 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 2-1 5-2 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-2 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
S. Alabama 2-1 3-4 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
Georgia St. 2-1 3-3 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
UL-Monroe 3-2 3-4 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
Idaho 1-2 2-5 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-6 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
Coastal Carolina 0-4 1-6 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC North Texas South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Houston Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Arizona
New Mexico CUSA MWC La. Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC N. Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Colorado] Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Fla. Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 SMU [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Arkansas St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Navy San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Virginia [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Iowa USC
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [Western Ky.] Boston Coll.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech West Virginia
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Georgia St.
Cotton At-large At-large TCU Arizona St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1

 

 

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Iowa
Minnesota Illinois
#2 @ +169  
Must Win Must Lose
Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette
Notre Dame USC
LSU Ole Miss
#3 @ +127  
Must Win Must Lose
Houston Memphis
Penn St. Michigan
#4 @ +132  
Must Win Must Lose
UAB Charlotte
Purdue Rutgers
Duke Pittsburgh

Good luck.  You’ll need it if you play our parlays.  Shame on you if you wager the paper that they say is real money on these selections.  If you want to gift away $400, you can send it to my Patreon page.

October 16, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 19-21, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:52 am

This week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Louisiana-Lafayette 9.0 8.7 10.4
Houston Memphis 0.4 0.6 0.1
Old Dominion Western Kentucky -8.3 -5.2 -9.3
Middle Tennessee Marshall -1.8 -2.2 -3.0
Nevada Air Force -2.8 -1.4 -1.4
New Mexico Colorado St. -12.0 -11.0 -11.5
Army Temple 8.3 7.8 9.1
Wisconsin Maryland 24.0 18.8 22.7
Texas Tech Iowa St. 0.7 -0.1 -1.0
Toledo Akron 15.0 12.3 15.4
Missouri Idaho 16.4 12.4 14.6
Northwestern Iowa 4.2 2.4 4.6
Connecticut Tulsa -11.3 -8.5 -10.9
Florida St. Louisville 13.9 13.3 13.1
Rutgers Purdue -6.2 -5.9 -7.4
Duke Pittsburgh 7.3 5.9 6.8
Virginia Boston College 6.3 5.6 7.0
Georgia St. Troy -5.0 -5.9 -4.3
Eastern Michigan Western Michigan -0.7 0.0 -1.6
Ohio U Kent St. 14.1 14.2 14.5
Bowling Green Northern Illinois -5.6 -4.4 -5.4
Miami (O) Buffalo 7.3 6.8 6.2
Ball St. Central Michigan -12.4 -11.0 -11.7
Minnesota Illinois 19.7 19.1 20.7
Virginia Tech North Carolina 18.4 18.7 20.0
Michigan St. Indiana 1.5 3.5 1.6
Alabama Tennessee 37.4 34.7 38.2
Appalachian St. Coastal Carolina 30.8 27.5 29.5
Navy Central Florida -11.4 -12.6 -12.5
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 13.7 13.3 13.9
Massachusetts Georgia Southern 10.5 8.3 10.9
Utah Arizona St. 4.4 7.0 4.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma -6.6 -5.6 -7.0
TCU Kansas 42.5 37.0 44.1
Texas Oklahoma St. -7.9 -6.1 -8.5
UCLA Oregon 0.1 2.1 0.5
Cincinnati SMU -9.3 -7.2 -8.5
Mississippi St. Kentucky -0.3 1.4 0.6
South Alabama Louisiana-Monroe 8.0 9.8 9.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 8.7 10.0 9.3
UNLV Utah St. -3.1 0.0 -2.4
Charlotte UAB 1.7 0.5 -0.2
Tulane South Florida -14.1 -12.5 -14.8
UTSA Rice 19.8 20.7 21.2
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 3.6 4.0 4.2
East Carolina BYU -9.0 -6.7 -9.0
Ole Miss LSU -6.3 -6.1 -8.6
Arkansas Auburn -18.6 -17.2 -19.1
Georgia Tech Wake Forest 11.7 10.6 10.5
Penn St. Michigan 18.2 15.9 19.9
Notre Dame USC 2.3 1.5 3.2
Baylor West Virginia -8.3 -7.0 -8.7
California Arizona 3.9 2.7 3.3
Boise St. Wyoming 11.3 10.9 12.4
San Diego St. Fresno St. 9.4 11.0 9.7
Washington St. Colorado 10.7 9.8 12.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings–Ranks the teams based on what they have done to date.  This rating is better to gauge what the teams have done so far rather than how they might fare going forward.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.7
2 Penn St. 130.8
3 Georgia 130.6
4 TCU 129.3
5 Clemson 128.7
6 Ohio St. 128.5
7 Wisconsin 127.9
8 Miami (Fla) 127.0
9 Notre Dame 126.7
10 USC 126.4
11 Central Florida 126.2
12 Washington 125.8
13 Oklahoma St. 125.1
14 Oklahoma 124.9
15 Stanford 124.2
16 Michigan St. 123.7
17 Michigan 123.3
18 North Carolina St. 123.0
19 Washington St. 122.2
20 Virginia Tech 121.6
21 South Florida 121.5
22 Texas A&M 121.2
23 Auburn 120.8
24 Iowa 119.9
25 San Diego St. 119.4
26 Mississippi St. 118.9
27 Florida St. 118.8
28 Memphis 118.6
29 Wake Forest 117.3
30 Texas Tech 116.8
31 West Virginia 116.4
32 LSU 116.3
33 Kentucky 116.1
34 Boise St. 115.9
35 Navy 115.2
36 South Carolina 114.7
37 Virginia 113.8
38 Toledo 113.1
39 Iowa St. 112.0
40 Utah 110.9
41 Oregon 110.5
42 California 110.1
43 Texas 110.0
44 Arizona St. 109.8
45 Georgia Tech 109.5
46 Florida 109.2
47 Louisville 108.7
48 Arizona 108.5
49 Purdue 107.7
50 Northwestern 107.4
51 Houston 106.9
52 Duke 106.3
53 Colorado St. 105.8
54 Indiana 104.6
55 Syracuse 103.9
56 UCLA 103.4
57 Marshall 103.2
58 Western Michigan 103.1
59 Fresno St. 103.0
60 Colorado 102.8
61 Minnesota 102.1
62 SMU 101.8
63 Maryland 101.6
64 Northern Illinois 101.5
65 Boston College 100.9
66 Appalachian St. 100.4
67 Troy 100.0
68 Kansas St. 99.7
69 Army 98.6
70 Ole Miss 97.2
71 North Texas 97.1
72 Tennessee 96.7
73 Nebraska 96.4
74 Louisiana Tech 96.3
75 Vanderbilt 95.6
76 Southern Miss. 95.2
77 Florida Atlantic 95.0
78 Tulane 94.8
79 Akron 94.6
80 Wyoming 94.5
81 Arkansas 92.9
82 Ohio 92.8
83 Western Kentucky 92.6
84 Air Force 92.0
85 Arkansas St. 91.8
86 Tulsa 91.7
87 Pittsburgh 91.3
88 New Mexico 91.1
89 UTSA 90.7
90 Temple 90.2
91 Utah St. 89.9
92 North Carolina 89.5
93 Buffalo 89.3
94 Florida Int’l. 88.7
95 UAB 88.1
96 Middle Tennessee 87.0
97 Cincinnati 85.7
98 Rutgers 85.1
99 New Mexico St. 84.2
100 Eastern Michigan 83.9
101 UL-Monroe 83.6
102 Georgia St. 83.4
103 UL-Lafayette 81.9
104 Illinois 81.2
105 UNLV 81.0
106 Central Michigan 80.7
107 Miami (O) 80.5
108 Baylor 80.4
109 Missouri 80.4
110 South Alabama 80.3
111 Oregon St. 79.9
112 Hawaii 79.7
113 BYU 79.6
114 Connecticut 79.5
115 Idaho 79.4
116 Nevada 78.9
117 Kent St. 78.7
118 Old Dominion 78.1
119 East Carolina 77.8
120 Bowling Green 77.5
121 Ball St. 77.0
122 Kansas 76.2
123 Rice 75.7
124 Georgia Southern 75.3
125 Massachusetts 75.1
126 Coastal Carolina 74.6
127 San Jose St. 74.2
128 UTEP 73.5
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 71.9

Predictive Ratings–This rating is a forward-looking rating trying to predict the outcome of future games.  Unlike other predictive ratings, ours are geared toward only each teams’ next game, because we adjust our ratings based on many factors that cannot be reflected just from the score of the games.  A team that is predicted to win by 14 points that wins by exactly 14 points might be expected to retain an identical rating the following week, but we adjust for things like depth, how the score became a 14-point victory, how the teams’ past opponents fared during the week (more weight given to recent games than early games), etc.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
3 Penn St. 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
4 Washington 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
5 Clemson 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
6 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
7 Oklahoma St. 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
8 Auburn 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
9 Florida St. 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
10 Oklahoma 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
11 Miami 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
12 Wisconsin 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
13 Stanford 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
14 T C U 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
15 U S C 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
17 N. Carolina St. 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
18 Notre Dame 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
19 Washington St. 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
20 Georgia Tech 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
21 L S U 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
22 Texas 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
23 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
24 Michigan 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
25 Florida 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
26 South Florida 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
27 Kansas St. 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
28 Louisville 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
29 Northwestern 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
30 Kentucky 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
31 West Virginia 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
32 Syracuse 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
33 Iowa 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
34 Iowa State 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
35 Texas A&M 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
36 Mississippi St. 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
37 S. Carolina 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
38 Utah 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
39 Colorado 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
40 Duke 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
41 Wake Forest 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
42 Oregon 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
43 Texas Tech 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
44 Colo. State 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
45 Indiana 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
46 Virginia 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
47 Arizona St. 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
48 Minnesota 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
49 U C L A 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
50 California 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
51 Michigan St. 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
52 Ole Miss 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
53 Arizona 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
54 Memphis 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
55 Purdue 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
56 Pittsburgh 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
59 Arkansas 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
60 N. Carolina 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
61 Boston College 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
63 Houston 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
64 Maryland 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
65 Navy 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
66 San Diego St. 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
67 Nebraska 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
69 Baylor 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
70 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
71 SMU 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
72 Army 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
73 Tulsa 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
75 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
76 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
77 Tulane 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
78 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
79 Rutgers 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
80 Fresno St. 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
81 U T S A 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
82 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
83 W. Kentucky 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
84 Florida Atlantic 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
85 Oregon St. 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
86 Marshall 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
87 Air Force 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
88 Temple 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
89 BYU 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
90 Arkansas St. 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
91 Utah St. 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
93 New Mexico 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
95 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
96 Louisiana Tech 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
97 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
98 Akron 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
99 N. Mexico St. 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
100 Illinois 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
101 Cincinnati 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
102 Southern Miss. 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
103 Middle Tennessee 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
104 Nevada 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
105 S. Alabama 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
106 U N L V 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
107 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
108 N. Texas 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
109 Hawaii 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
110 Georgia St. 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
111 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
112 Massachusetts 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
113 Connecticut 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
114 Idaho 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
115 Florida Int’l. 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
116 Old Dominion 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
117 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
118 Kansas 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
119 UL-Monroe 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
120 East Carolina 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 UAB 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
127 Charlotte 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 U T E P 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
129 Texas St. 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
130 Coastal Carolina 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 3-0 5-0 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
South Florida 3-0 6-0 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
Temple 1-3 3-4 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
Cincinnati 0-3 2-5 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
Connecticut 1-3 2-4 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
East Carolina 1-3 1-6 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-1 5-1 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
Houston 2-1 4-2 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
Navy 3-1 5-1 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-2 2-5 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
Tulane 1-1 3-3 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
             
AAC Averages     97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
Florida St. 2-2 2-3 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
Louisville 1-3 4-3 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
Syracuse 2-1 4-3 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
Boston College 1-3 3-4 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 3-0 5-0 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
Duke 1-3 4-3 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
Virginia 2-0 5-1 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
Pittsburgh 0-3 2-5 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
N. Carolina 0-4 1-6 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 2-1 5-1 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
Oklahoma 2-1 5-1 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
T C U 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
Texas 2-1 3-3 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
Kansas St. 1-2 3-3 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
West Virginia 2-1 4-2 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
Iowa State 2-1 4-2 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
Texas Tech 1-2 4-2 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
Baylor 0-3 0-6 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
Kansas 0-3 1-5 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
             
Big 12 Averages     109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
Michigan 2-1 5-1 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
Indiana 0-3 3-3 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
Michigan St. 3-0 5-1 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
Maryland 1-2 3-3 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
Rutgers 1-2 2-4 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 3-0 6-0 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
Northwestern 1-2 3-3 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
Iowa 1-2 4-2 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
Minnesota 0-3 3-3 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
Purdue 1-2 3-3 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
Illinois 0-3 2-4 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 2-1 4-2 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
Marshall 2-0 5-1 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
Middle Tennessee 1-2 3-4 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
Old Dominion 0-2 2-4 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
Charlotte 0-3 0-7 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-2 3-2 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
Southern Miss. 2-1 4-2 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
N. Texas 3-0 4-2 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
Rice 1-1 1-5 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
U T E P 0-3 0-7 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
Army   5-2 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
BYU   1-6 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
             
Indep. Averages     98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 2-1 5-2 92.0 93.3 92.8 92.7
Miami (O) 1-2 2-5 88.2 90.3 89.3 89.3
Akron 3-0 4-3 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
Buffalo 1-2 3-4 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Bowling Green 1-2 1-6 81.5 82.5 82.1 82.0
Kent St. 1-2 2-5 80.3 81.7 80.8 80.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 2-0 5-1 100.6 100.5 101.9 101.0
Western Michigan 2-1 4-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-4 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 2-0 4-2 90.9 90.7 91.6 91.0
Central Michigan 1-2 3-4 87.7 88.6 88.1 88.1
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.2 76.4 75.4 75.3
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 3-0 5-2 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
Boise St. 2-0 4-2 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
Wyoming 2-0 4-2 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
Air Force 1-2 2-4 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
Utah St. 1-2 3-4 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-2 3-3 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-1 6-1 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
Fresno St. 3-0 4-2 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
Nevada 1-2 1-6 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
U N L V 1-2 2-4 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
Stanford 4-1 5-2 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
Oregon 1-3 4-3 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
California 1-3 4-3 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-1 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
Utah 1-2 4-2 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
Colorado 1-3 4-3 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
Arizona St. 2-1 3-3 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
U C L A 1-2 3-3 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
Arizona 2-1 4-2 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
Florida 3-2 3-3 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
Kentucky 2-1 5-1 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
Tennessee 0-3 3-3 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
Missouri 0-4 1-5 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 4-0 7-0 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
Auburn 3-1 5-2 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
L S U 2-1 5-2 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
Mississippi St. 1-2 4-2 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
Ole Miss 1-2 3-3 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
Arkansas 0-3 2-4 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 3-0 4-2 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
Troy 1-1 4-2 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
Arkansas St. 2-0 3-2 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
S. Alabama 1-1 2-4 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
Georgia St. 2-0 3-2 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
UL-Lafayette 2-1 3-3 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
Idaho 1-2 2-4 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
UL-Monroe 3-1 3-3 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-5 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
Coastal Carolina 0-3 1-5 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 111.9 110.5 111.2 111.2
3 BIG 12 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
4 PAC-12 110.0 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
7 AAC 97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
8 MWC 92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
9 MAC 88.6 89.6 89.5 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 84.2 84.9 84.2 84.4

Bowl Projections

You probably see bowl projections from many sites, and from what we have learned, many of them just throw teams into the slots based on how they think in their head without really looking at the remaining schedules and then plotting how the committees will allot teams.

The PiRates project the won-loss records of all 130 teams every week, and then look at the bowls as the committees and leagues would look at them.  Thus, ours are always going to be a bit unique and will not follow in lockstep with the big sites where they really do not have a lot of time to devote to this task.  This feature actually takes up more time than anything else we do other than our college basketball March Madness submissions.

Thus, rather than just state the bowl projections this week, how about we explain our selections.  Also, we apologize for all the abbreviations, but apparently many of you that use your phone to access our site cannot read this feature unless we do so.  Tabular data can be difficult at times to display in an aesthetically brilliant manner.

American Athletic Conference

Central Florida and South Florida could be heading to an incredible final regular season game, where the winner not only takes the East Division title, but they enter AAC Championship play undefeated as the odds-on favorite to snag the New Year’s 6 Bowl invitation.  If by some strange possibility that there are less than three one-loss or undefeated Power 5 conference teams, then an undefeated UCF or USF might have an outside shot at making the playoffs.

In the West, Houston, Memphis, and Navy look to vie for the division flag, with SMU also an outside possibility.  We like the Cougars to cop that flag, mostly because they host Memphis this week and should bounce back with their best game of the month.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: With the AAC Champion predicted to make the NY6 bowl, this league needs 8 bowl eligible teams to fill its contracts, so having just 6 bowl eligible teams will open up two bowls (Birmingham & Gasparilla) to at-large entries.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson’s loss to Syracuse doesn’t end the Tigers’ shot at defending their national title, as this loss was about on par with last year’s loss to Pittsburgh.  However, in order to get there, CU must win out, and that includes having to beat NC State in Raleigh and then the Coastal Division champion in the ACC Championship Game.  At this point, our belief is that it will not happen for the Tigers this season.

Miami has survived close games against Florida State and Georgia Tech the last two weeks.  The Hurricanes have to fend off Virginia Tech and the up and coming Virginia Cavaliers, and we think Mark Richt’s team will be able to make it to the ACC Championship Game.

For the time being, our belief is that North Carolina State will hold off Clemson and then take out Miami to win the ACC Championship, but we also believe the Wolf Pack will lose one conference game, leaving them with a record of 11-2, which will keep them out of the playoffs.

Notre Dame figures in the ACC Bowl Tie-ins, as the Irish can trump any ACC team that has just one more victory than they do.  In other words, if Virginia goes 10-2, and Notre Dame goes 9-3, the Irish can jump over the Cavs in the bowl pecking order.

As of today, we have Notre Dame pegged for a 10-2 finish, which will not give them a good enough slate to make the playoffs, but it will put them in the NY6 Bowl group.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 11 (which includes Notre Dame)

Result: Under this scenario, NC State would earn the Orange Bowl bid as the ACC Champion.  Notre Dame and one other team (Miami is our choice this week) would receive NY6 Bowls, while Clemson would fall to the Citrus Bowl.  Under this scenario, the ACC-Notre Dame alliance would actually need 12 bowl eligible teams, while they would have just 11 bowl eligible teams.  This would open up the Quick Lane Bowl for an at-large team.

Big 12

This is going to be highly ironic for this league.  The Big 12 kept losing out in the playoff picture due to a lack of having a conference championship game like the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.  This year, there will be a Big 12 Championship Game, but unlike the others, it will pit the number one versus the number two team in the standings.  Since the Big 12 teams all play each other, it guarantees a rematch for the title game.  There is just enough parity in this league this year that the number one team can sweep the number two team or vice versa.  Thus, the conference championship game could be the one factor that keeps the Big 12 out of the playoffs.  Yes, ironic indeed.

TCU is the lone unbeaten left in the league, but the Horned Frogs would have to win at Oklahoma and then beat one of the Oklahoma teams a second time in order to make the playoffs.  There are scenarios were TCU could lose to Oklahoma in the regular season and then win the Big 12 Championship Game and squeak into the playoffs, but for now, we believe there might be another scenario.  We currently project Oklahoma State to win out, including beating Oklahoma and then taking TCU in the rematch for the conference title.  At 12-1, we show Oklahoma State to be the #4 team entering the playoffs.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 7

Result: With Oklahoma State going to the Playoffs, and with the possibility that both Oklahoma and TCU could have two losses at the end of the season, we project no other conference team to receive a bid to a NY6 bowl.  With 7 projected bowl eligible teams, the league would have exactly the number needed to furnish its bowl obligations.

We came up with 7 bowl eligible teams, because we believe that two teams from among Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech will get to 6 wins, while one finishes 5-7.  For now, we believe there will be exactly 78 bowl eligible teams to fill the 78 slots, so no 5-7 teams will be needed to fill spots.

Big Ten

This is perhaps the most interesting league this year.  Ohio State lost early at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes were dismissed as a potential title-contender.  Remember that Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech the year they won the national championship in the very first playoff season.  Since losing at home to the Sooners, Urban Meyer’s team has done exactly what his Florida team did in 2008 after losing at home to Ole Miss.

Penn State is the darling team in this league at the present time, and the Nittany Lions should handle Michigan this week.  However, James Franklin’s squad has road dates against Michigan State and Ohio State lurking.  We believe Penn State can win in East Lansing, but Ohio State will be almost impossible to beat in Columbus.  The Buckeyes have been looking forward to getting revenge over last year’s upset loss in Happy Valley, and we believe Ohio State will win convincingly and then run the table.

The end of that table could be the demise of an undefeated season for Wisconsin, much like Iowa falling to Penn State in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.  If this happens, then both Penn State and Wisconsin will be one loss teams that both lost to a playoff team.  That, along with the huge fan bases, would be enough to propel both one-loss teams into NY6 bowls.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Putting Ohio State into the playoffs, and both Penn State and Wisconsin into NY6 bowls, the Big Ten would need 10 bowl eligible teams, while we project just 9 to make it.  Thus, the Armed Forces Bowl would need to find an at-large replacement.

Conference USA

Up to now, you have seen multiple bowls that will need at-large replacements for conferences that will not supply enough bowl-eligible teams, yet you have not seen us list a league with extra teams available.  CUSA is going to strike it rich this year, as this league should have quite an excess of bowl eligible teams after fulfilling the allotted contracts.

There is no overwhelming favorite in the league, even at the halfway point of the season.  Because of this, CUSA should produce double digit teams with at least 6 wins.

In the East, Western Kentucky is nothing like the 2016 Hilltopper team.  They are just starting to play good football, but it may be too late to win the division.  Middle Tennessee’s chances to win the division ended when star quarterback Brent Stockstill went down with an injury.  If he returns in time, the Blue Raiders can still salvage a 6-6 season.  Florida Atlantic and Florida International have shots at taking the division title, and both should become bowl eligible.

The team that the PiRates believe will win the East is Marshall.  Coach Doc Holliday is hands-down the best recruiter in the division and probably about equal with UTSA’s Frank Wilson for tops in the league.  Holliday could be on the radar of bigger schools if the Mountaineers take the conference title this year.

The West race is just as interesting.  North Texas and Louisiana Tech are the top two contenders, and the two teams play in Ruston on November 4.  We give LT the edge due to the home field advantage.

We have to mention possibly the most incredible feat of all, one that is going virtually unnoticed outside of the league.  UAB, a team that did not play for the past two years, returned to FBS football.  This was akin to SMU’s death penalty.  Nobody expected the Blazers to compete for bowl eligibility in their return to college football, with a 3-9 season considered the ceiling.  UAB not only figures to become bowl eligible, they are still in contention for the West Division title.  Coach Bill Clark needs to receive some National Coach of the Year votes for doing the almost impossible.  This is like a pro sports team expansion franchise making the playoffs in their first season.  Did you hear that Las Vegas Golden Knights fans?

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 10

Result: With no real shot at the NY6 bowl, CUSA will have to make do with its six bowl tie-ins.  However, we show 10 bowl eligible teams.  And, thanks to the fact that we show more than four bowl bids up for grabs that will need at-large teams, we believe all 10 bowl eligible teams will find spots.  It is also very possible that two CUSA teams will have to face each other in a bowl game.

Independents

With Notre Dame included in the ACC bowl picture, this really only leaves Army in this discussion, since BYU and UMass will finish on the wrong side of .500.  This is rather cut and dry.  Army needs a 6-6 record to automatically earn a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl, one of the bowls that will most likely need to find an at-large opponent, most likely from CUSA.

Mid-American Conference

There is still a chance for Toledo to ascend to the top of the Group of 5 hierarchy and earn a NY6 bowl bid.  The Rockets only loss was at undefeated Miami of Florida, and should Jason Candles’ team win out, and USF and UCF both lose, then Toledo could sneak in at the end and grab a Peach Bowl spot.  If this happens, the MAC will still have enough bowl eligible teams left to satisfy its bowl obligations, but the more likely scenario is that Toledo will have to settle for a regular MAC bowl, and the league will have one extra team ready to grab an at-large bid.  The MAC has a secondary bowl agreement with the Quick Lane Bowl, and we project this bowl to need an at-large entry, so everything should work out for the MAC to get six bowl bids instead of 5.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 6

Result: Either Buffalo or Central Michigan figures to get to 6-6, and whichever team does will be rewarded with a trip to Detroit during the holidays.

Mountain West Conference

Boise State picked a fine time to look like the Broncos teams of 2006  and 2009.  Their pasting of San Diego State put this league behind the AAC and possibly the MAC in the race for the one NY6 Bowl for Group of 5 leagues.  Boise State has two losses, both to current one-loss teams, and that might be enough to limit the league to its regular five bids.

Because the West Division figures to have just two bowl eligible teams (San Diego State and Fresno State), the Mountain Division will need to supply three bowl eligible teams from among the parity in the division.  At this time, Air Force, Utah State and New Mexico have tough roads to get to 6-6, but Colorado State and Wyoming should join Boise State with enough wins.  In fact, this is still a three-team race for the division flag, and at the moment, we project Wyoming to win.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 5

Result: It will be interesting to see how the league will send its teams to the bowls this year, especially if Boise State and San Diego State both miss out on the title.  While the New Mexico and Hawaii Bowls are just fine with always inviting the home team, the Idaho Potato Bowl has been wont to invite somebody other than the Broncos to the field of blue.  We do not project New Mexico or Hawaii to become bowl eligible, so it should be quite interesting indeed to see where each league team goes after the champion gets the automatic bid to the Las Vegas Bowl.

Pac-12 Conference

This league took the biggest hit of all this past weekend when Washington and Washington State bowed out of the playoff race.  USC might still hold a slim chance of making it into the playoffs by winning out, which would include victories over Notre Dame in South Bend, Arizona State in Tempe, and Colorado in Boulder, plus the Conference Championship Game, but we do not forecast the Trojans to win out or even win the Pac-12 Championship.

With the recent turn of events, it could be that Stanford now holds the key to the Pac-12 bowl scramble.  The Cardinal lost at USC and at San Diego State, but since then, David Shaw’s squad looks the most complete.  With a home finale against Notre Dame, the possible Pac-12 champion could be 10-3, but even at 11-2, we do not see a way that Stanford (or any other Pac-12 team could get in the playoff).

The two Arizona schools had coaches on very hot seats before this past weekend, but Arizona State’s smashing of Washington, and Arizona’s trouncing of UCLA most likely gave Todd Graham and Rich Rodriguez stays of execution if not outright commutations.

UCLA looks like the team hurting the most, and for Jim Mora, Jr., the bell might soon toll for him.  Chip Kelly might be the right person for this job.  Forget the eastern schools with openings; if UCLA offers him this job, Kelly will take it before he takes jobs like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Nebraska, or possibly Auburn if there is a move there.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: It is our belief that with no playoff teams, the league will get two teams in the NY6 bowl block.  The champion will get an automatic berth, and we believe that if Stanford wins out in the league, then either USC or Washington will get a bid to the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.

For now, we have both UCLA and Colorado just missing out on bowl eligibility, while we move California and the two Arizona teams into bowl eligibility.  There will be one extra team available to take an at-large bowl bid back in the east.  Arizona, you look like the perfect team to spend the holiday season in some rural Southern town.

Southeastern Conference 

There will be a mini-crisis or two coming forth from the SEC race this season.  First, and most obvious, it looks like there is more than a decent chance that both Alabama and Georgia could run the table and square off in the SEC Championship games sporting identical 12-0 records, with Alabama number one and Georgia number two.  We then expect a close game with the loser remaining in the top four, thus giving the SEC two teams in the playoffs.  Since the playoffs began, this has not happened.

The other mini-crisis involves the fact that this league now looks to be short in its bowl eligibility needs.  Missouri and Arkansas are headed to losing records, which will open at least one coaching job if not two.  Ole Miss is ineligible for bowl consideration, and both Tennessee and Vanderbilt appear to be headed to a season finale where both teams could be 5-6, so the loser will be out of the bowl picture.  Throw in the distinct possibility now that Florida could very well fall to 5-6 (had a game cancelled due to Hurricane Irma) and also miss out on a bowl.  That brings the number of bowl-ineligible SEC teams to  five, leaving 9 bowl-eligible teams.

Total Bowl Eligibles Predicted: 9

Result: Start with two teams making the playoffs.  This will mean that the Orange Bowl will choose to go elsewhere with their opponent to the ACC champion.  It will leave two bowls without an SEC representative, the Birmingham and the Independence.  Unfortunately for the Birmingham Bowl, it looks like it might need two at-large teams to face off at Legion Field on December 23.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N.  Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Wyoming Washington St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC UTSA Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Louisiana Tech
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Southern Miss.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Marshall Toledo
Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Boise St.
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 [Arizona] [Fla. Atlantic]
A.  Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
$ General MAC SBC Akron Appy St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Memphis San Diego St.
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Arizona
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Florida St. Iowa
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Miss. State
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Louisville
Camp.Wrld. ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Oklahoma
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Utah
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Syracuse California
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Notre Dame Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Tennessee
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Stanford
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large N.C.  St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma St.
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

October 9, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 11-14, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:14 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Troy South Alabama 15.8 13.1 15.4
Louisiana-Lafayette Texas St. 17.0 15.8 18.4
Syracuse Clemson -19.2 -18.2 -19.4
California Washington St. -16.5 -16.4 -17.8
Army Eastern Michigan 5.6 6.2 6.2
Temple Connecticut 14.9 12.3 15.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina St. -9.6 -8.6 -10.5
West Virginia Texas Tech 5.3 6.2 6.1
Tennessee South Carolina 0.0 -0.8 -0.9
Kansas St. TCU -2.2 0.0 -2.5
Illinois Rutgers -2.2 -0.8 -2.7
Iowa St. Kansas 25.1 22.6 26.9
Mississippi St. BYU 17.1 18.5 17.3
Indiana Michigan -6.7 -6.6 -5.7
Louisville Boston College 18.4 17.2 18.6
Air Force UNLV 8.9 7.0 9.1
Marshall Old Dominion 7.0 5.6 8.4
Oklahoma St. Baylor 24.4 21.1 25.2
Maryland Northwestern -4.9 -1.1 -4.9
Kent St. Miami (O) -8.4 -8.9 -9.2
Bowling Green Ohio U -6.3 -6.9 -6.2
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 0.6 0.0 -0.2
Wisconsin Purdue 23.0 17.8 20.8
North Carolina Virginia 4.2 3.7 1.3
Central Michigan Toledo -7.5 -6.7 -8.2
Buffalo Northern Illinois -2.7 -0.1 -1.2
Oklahoma (N) Texas 8.6 6.5 8.7
Western Michigan Akron 19.8 15.3 20.8
Miami (Fla.) Georgia Tech 9.3 9.3 10.7
Duke Florida St. -12.5 -12.3 -12.6
Florida Texas A&M 10.1 11.3 10.4
Alabama Arkansas 39.1 34.8 38.6
LSU Auburn -11.4 -10.7 -10.9
Memphis Navy 6.5 5.0 6.8
Tulsa Houston -8.1 -7.3 -8.7
Oregon St. Colorado -13.6 -12.1 -12.8
Utah St. Wyoming 0.0 0.2 0.7
Western Kentucky Charlotte 22.6 19.6 22.9
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia St. 0.1 1.4 -0.9
Idaho Appalachian St. -12.9 -8.4 -12.5
Georgia Southern New Mexico St. -7.4 -4.0 -7.9
UAB Middle Tennessee -17.5 -14.3 -16.0
Southern Miss. UTEP 17.5 15.5 17.3
North Texas UTSA -8.4 -8.4 -9.7
Central Florida East Carolina 34.1 34.0 35.7
Florida Int’l. Tulane -15.9 -15.5 -16.1
Arkansas St. Coastal Carolina 21.6 21.9 21.3
Georgia Missouri 31.4 34.1 32.9
Nebraska Ohio St. -29.5 -25.6 -30.1
South Florida Cincinnati 28.4 24.6 28.2
Minnesota Michigan St. 5.9 4.4 4.9
USC Utah 15.4 13.1 15.0
Arizona UCLA -3.6 -3.9 -4.3
Fresno St. New Mexico -1.7 -2.7 -2.0
Colorado St. Nevada 25.9 22.1 24.8
San Diego St. Boise St. 6.6 8.6 8.0
Arizona St. Washington -25.4 -22.8 -26.7
Stanford Oregon 9 10.2 9.1
Hawaii San Jose St. 13 14.0 13.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Penn St.
5 Georgia
6 Washington St.
7 TCU
8 Ohio St.
9 Wisconsin
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Notre Dame
12 USC
13 Central Florida
14 San Diego St.
15 Auburn
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Oklahoma
18 Michigan
19 Virginia Tech
20 North Carolina St.
21 South Florida
22 Stanford
23 Texas Tech
24 Navy
25 Michigan St.
26 Iowa
27 Mississippi St.
28 Wake Forest
29 Florida
30 Houston
31 Louisville
32 Kentucky
33 Utah
34 Oregon
35 Georgia Tech
36 Florida St.
37 Texas A&M
38 South Carolina
39 Texas
40 LSU
41 Memphis
42 Iowa St.
43 Maryland
44 Purdue
45 Toledo
46 Tennessee
47 Virginia
48 Duke
49 West Virginia
50 Minnesota
51 UCLA
52 Western Michigan
53 Boise St.
54 Colorado St.
55 Kansas St.
56 Troy
57 Arizona St.
58 Indiana
59 Vanderbilt
60 Colorado
61 Arizona
62 Northwestern
63 California
64 SMU
65 Marshall
66 Army
67 Appalachian St.
68 Nebraska
69 Northern Illinois
70 Tulane
71 Fresno St.
72 Boston College
73 Syracuse
74 Louisiana Tech
75 Southern Miss.
76 Arkansas
77 Florida Atlantic
78 Temple
79 North Texas
80 UTSA
81 Wyoming
82 Pittsburgh
83 Arkansas St.
84 Western Kentucky
85 Ole Miss
86 New Mexico
87 Utah St.
88 Ohio
89 North Carolina
90 Buffalo
91 Akron
92 Air Force
93 Middle Tennessee
94 Cincinnati
95 UL-Monroe
96 Eastern Michigan
97 Illinois
98 UNLV
99 Tulsa
100 New Mexico St.
101 Central Michigan
102 Miami (O)
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Baylor
105 Missouri
106 Oregon St.
107 Rutgers
108 UL-Lafayette
109 UAB
110 Georgia St.
111 Nevada
112 BYU
113 Old Dominion
114 Idaho
115 Hawaii
116 East Carolina
117 Bowling Green
118 Ball St.
119 Kent St.
120 Connecticut
121 South Alabama
122 Kansas
123 Georgia Southern
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Massachusetts
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Texas St.
130 Charlotte

Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 134.4 137.8 137.1
2 Ohio St. 134.3 131.6 134.0 133.3
3 Washington 130.5 127.4 131.2 129.7
4 Clemson 130.0 127.4 129.5 129.0
5 Penn St. 128.2 126.1 129.1 127.8
6 Auburn 126.9 124.7 127.0 126.2
7 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
8 Florida St. 123.3 121.9 122.1 122.5
9 Oklahoma St. 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
10 Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.6 121.8
11 Miami 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.4
12 Wisconsin 122.9 119.1 121.4 121.2
13 Washington St. 120.8 118.3 120.4 119.8
14 U S C 119.6 118.9 119.4 119.3
15 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 119.0 118.6
16 T C U 119.2 116.8 119.5 118.5
17 Notre Dame 117.4 116.0 118.1 117.1
18 N. Carolina St. 117.2 116.5 117.3 117.0
19 Stanford 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
20 Florida 115.2 114.2 114.6 114.7
21 Georgia Tech 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
22 Louisville 114.9 113.9 114.8 114.5
23 Michigan 114.4 114.4 113.8 114.2
24 Texas 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
25 Kansas St. 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
26 Central Florida 111.8 113.4 113.1 112.8
27 L S U 112.6 111.0 113.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
29 Kentucky 110.9 109.7 110.2 110.3
30 Oregon 111.4 108.8 110.5 110.2
31 West Virginia 109.7 110.3 109.9 110.0
32 Iowa 109.8 110.0 109.6 109.8
33 Northwestern 110.1 108.2 110.0 109.4
34 U C L A 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
35 Utah 107.2 108.8 107.4 107.8
36 Colorado 109.1 107.4 106.9 107.8
37 Mississippi St. 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
38 Texas Tech 107.4 107.0 106.8 107.1
39 Texas A&M 108.1 105.9 107.2 107.1
40 S. Carolina 107.7 106.8 106.7 107.1
41 Syracuse 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
42 Duke 107.8 106.7 106.6 107.0
43 Colo. State 107.4 105.9 107.7 107.0
44 Wake Forest 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
45 Iowa State 106.1 106.7 107.0 106.6
46 Minnesota 105.5 106.0 105.0 105.5
47 Houston 105.2 104.4 105.3 105.0
48 San Diego St. 104.5 104.7 105.6 104.9
49 Indiana 104.7 104.8 105.1 104.9
50 Pittsburgh 104.6 104.9 103.9 104.5
51 Vanderbilt 105.1 104.2 104.0 104.4
52 Memphis 104.5 103.8 104.8 104.3
53 N. Carolina 105.1 104.1 103.3 104.2
54 Virginia 103.9 103.4 105.0 104.1
55 Purdue 102.9 104.3 103.6 103.6
56 Tennessee 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
57 Michigan St. 102.5 104.6 103.1 103.4
58 Maryland 102.2 104.1 102.2 102.8
59 Arkansas 102.9 102.5 102.2 102.6
60 Western Michigan 102.1 100.5 103.5 102.0
61 Nebraska 101.8 103.0 100.9 101.9
62 Baylor 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
63 Arizona St. 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
64 Ole Miss 102.7 101.2 100.8 101.6
65 Navy 101.0 101.8 101.0 101.2
66 Arizona 101.9 100.9 100.6 101.1
67 Boise St. 100.9 99.1 100.6 100.2
68 California 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
69 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
70 Boston College 99.5 99.7 99.2 99.5
71 Tulane 98.6 98.6 99.3 98.8
72 Army 98.3 98.4 99.1 98.6
73 SMU 98.3 98.5 98.7 98.5
74 Appalachian St. 98.7 96.4 99.0 98.0
75 Troy 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Missouri 97.1 94.8 96.0 96.0
77 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
78 U T S A 94.3 96.1 96.1 95.5
79 New Mexico 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
80 Temple 94.5 94.8 94.6 94.6
81 Wyoming 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
82 Tulsa 94.6 94.7 94.1 94.5
83 Rutgers 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
84 BYU 93.1 92.5 92.9 92.8
85 Air Force 92.3 92.8 92.6 92.6
86 Florida Atlantic 91.2 93.9 92.5 92.5
87 W. Kentucky 92.1 91.5 93.0 92.2
88 Oregon St. 92.5 92.3 91.0 91.9
89 Utah St. 92.4 91.4 91.9 91.9
90 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
91 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
92 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
93 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.1 90.9 90.5
94 Middle Tennessee 89.7 90.3 90.3 90.1
95 Fresno St. 90.3 89.0 90.8 90.1
96 Marshall 88.8 90.1 90.4 89.8
97 Louisiana Tech 88.5 90.1 89.4 89.4
98 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
99 Illinois 89.2 90.7 87.9 89.3
100 Cincinnati 86.8 89.1 88.1 88.0
101 N. Mexico St. 88.2 86.3 88.4 87.6
102 U N L V 86.4 88.7 86.5 87.2
103 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.9 86.9 87.1
104 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
105 Akron 85.3 88.2 85.7 86.4
106 Hawaii 85.9 86.9 85.7 86.2
107 Old Dominion 84.8 87.6 85.0 85.8
108 Nevada 84.5 86.8 85.9 85.7
109 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.2 85.0 85.4
110 Massachusetts 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
111 Kansas 84.0 87.1 83.1 84.8
112 N. Texas 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
113 Georgia St. 84.7 84.1 84.7 84.5
114 S. Alabama