The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 6, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 6, 2018

PiRate Rating Spreads for Tuesday’s Conference Tournament Games

Home Team Visitor  
or Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Vermont Stony Brook 14.1
UMBC Hartford 4.7
Boston College Georgia Tech 3.5
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 16.4
Syracuse Wake Forest 3.3
North Dakota Montana St. 0.7
Northern Colorado Northern Arizona 14.8
Idaho St. Southern Utah 2.9
Portland St. Sacramento St. 9.1
Charleston Northeastern -0.5
Wright St. Cleveland St. 9.8
Howard Florida A&M 2.3
UNC-Central Coppin St. 7.8
Morgan St. South Carolina St. 5.2
Wagner Long Island 8.7
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Mississippi Valley St. 9.3
Southern Jackson St. 5.9
Texas Southern Alabama St. 12.0
Prairie View A&M Alcorn St. 9.6
South Dakota St. South Dakota -1.4
Gonzaga BYU 9.4

Games in RED are Championship Games for NCAA Tournament Bids

Teams That Won Conference Championships Last Night

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Iona 83 Fairfield 71
Southern Conference Tournament
UNC-Greensboro 62 East Tennessee St. 47

List of Teams In the Field as of Tuesday Morning

Team Bid Conf. W-L
Iona AUTO MAAC 20-13
Lipscomb AUTO A-SUN 23-9
Loyola (Chi.) AUTO MVC 28-5
Michigan AUTO BTen 28-7
Murray St. AUTO OVC 26-5
Radford AUTO B-South 22-12
UNC-Greensboro AUTO SoCon 27-7

 

NCAA Bids Up For Grabs Tonight

All Times EST

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Championship–March 6  
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Charleston #2 Northeastern CBSSN

 

Horizon League Tournament
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #2 Wright St. #8 Cleveland St. ESPN

Note: Cleveland State comes into this game tonight sporting a 12-22 record.  If they upset Wright State (24-9), the Vikings will most likely become one of the 16-seeds that must play a First Four game in Dayton.

Northeast Conference Tournament
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Wagner #4 Long Island ESPN2

 

Summit League Tournament
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:00 PM #1 South Dakota St. #2 South Dakota ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Gonzaga #3 BYU ESPN

Note:  BYU is a potential Bid Stealer.  If the Cougars upset the Bulldogs tonight at Orleans Arena, then the West Coast Conference would most likely send three teams instead of two to the NCAA Tournament, bursting the bubble of one of the teams on the fence, such as Alabama, Kansas St., USC, or UCLA.

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Brooklyn
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #12 Boston College #13 Georgia Tech ESPN2
2:00 PM #10 Notre Dame #15 Pittsburgh ESPN2
7:00 PM #11 Syracuse #14 Wake Forest ESPNU
       
Second Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 Florida St. #9 Louisville ESPN
2:00 PM #5 North Carolina St. Boston Coll. or Ga. Tech ESPN
7:00 PM #7 Virginia Tech N.Dame or Pitt ESPN2
9:00 PM #6 North Carolina Syracuse or Wake Forest ESPN2
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Virginia Fla. St. or Louis. ESPN
2:00 PM #4 Clemson NCSt/BC/GaT ESPN
7:00 PM #2 Duke VaT/N.Dame/Pitt ESPN
9:00 PM #3 Miami (Fla.) UNC/Syr/Wake For ESPN
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM UVa/FSU/Louis. Clem/NCSt/BC/GaT TBA
9:00 PM Duke/VaT/ND/Pitt Mia.UNC/Syr/WF TBA
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:30 PM     ESPN

Note: #10 Seed Notre Dame is a team to monitor in this tournament.  With star forward Bonzie Colson returning to the lineup after missing 15 games, the Irish could sneak into the semifinals of this tournament.  They should quickly dismiss hapless Pittsburgh today.  The game with Virginia Tech tomorrow would most likely be a must-win for Notre Dame’s at-large hopes.  If the Irish win that game, they would face Duke in the quarterfinals on Thursday.

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Reno, NV
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 North Dakota #9 Montana St. Pluto tv
2:30 PM #5 Northern Colorado #12 Northern Arizona Pluto tv
5:30 PM #7 Idaho St. #10 Southern Utah Pluto tv
8:00 PM #6 Portland St. #11 Sacramento St. Pluto tv
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Montana UND or MSU Pluto tv
2:30 PM #4 Weber St. UNC or NAU Pluto tv
5:30 PM #2 Idaho ISU or S. Utah Pluto tv
8:00 PM #3 Eastern Washington PSU or Sac St. Pluto tv
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM Mont/UND/MSU Web/UNC/NAU Pluto tv
8:00 PM Ida/ISU/S.Utah EWU/PSU/Sac. St. Pluto tv
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM     ESPNU

Note: Montana comes into the tournament riding a 16-2 record in conference play.  The Grizzlies sport the best defense in the league, including the top ball-hawking perimeter players.

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
First Round at Higher Seed, Semifinal and Final Round in Houston
Grambling and Alabama A&M are ineligible due to low APR Scores
All Times CST
       
Quarterfinals–March 6
Time Home Visitors TV
7:30 PM #1 Arkansas-Pine Bluff #8 Mississippi Valley St. TBA
7:30 PM #4 Southern U #5 Jackson St. TBA
8:00 PM #3 Texas Southern #6 Alabama St. TBA
8:30 PM #2 Prairie View A&M #7 Alcorn St. TBA
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM UAPB or MVSU Southern or JSU TBA
8:30 PM PVAM or Alcorn TSU or ASU TBA
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
3:00 PM     ESPN2

Note:  There is no complete team in this tournament.  The best team in the league, Grambling, is ineligible due to low APR Scores.  Prairie View is the only team with a chance of getting its record over .500 by winning the tournament, and then the won-loss record would be 18-17.  Unless 4, 20-loss mid-major teams win conference tournaments, the automatic bid will go to a team that must quickly head to Dayton for a First Four game.

Conference Tournaments Continuing Today

America East Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 6  All Times EST
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Vermont #5 Stony Brook ESPN3
7:30 PM #2 UMBC #3 Hartford ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Home Visitors TV
11:00 AM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN2

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM #8 Howard #9 Florida A&M ESPN3
6:30 PM #6 UNC-Central #11 Coppin St. ESPN3
9:00 PM #7 Morgan St. #10 South Carolina St. ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Hampton Howard or FAMU ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Bethune-Cookman MSU or SCSU ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #3 Savannah St. UNCC or Coppin ESPN3
8:00 PM #4 North Carolina A&T #5 Norfolk St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Hampton/Howard/FAMU NCAT/Norfolk St ESPN3
8:00 PM BCU/MSU/SCSU Sav/UNCC/Coppin ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     ESPN2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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January 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 6-7, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:02 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (multi-bid leagues only)

Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Connecticut East Carolina 14.7
Memphis Tulsa -0.9
Clemson Louisville 6.7
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 15.1
Virginia North Carolina 4.3
Syracuse Notre Dame 0.2
Boston College Wake Forest 3.1
North Carolina St. Duke -11.4
Baylor Texas 2.8
Texas Tech Kansas St. 10.1
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 8.0
West Virginia Oklahoma 4.4
TCU Kansas -1.3
Providence Xavier -4.7
Georgetown Creighton -5.9
St. John’s DePaul 7.6
Butler Seton Hall 2.2
Villanova Marquette 14.6
Michigan Illinois 9.7
Purdue Nebraska 18.2
Minnesota Indiana 11.4
Air Force Nevada -15.5
Colorado St. Fresno St. -4.5
Wyoming Boise St. -2.4
New Mexico San Jose St. 11.3
UNLV Utah St. 9.7
Colorado Arizona -8.3
Washington St. Washington -0.1
California UCLA -6.6
Georgia Alabama 0.7
Missouri Florida 2.6
Texas A&M LSU 8.6
Ole Miss Mississippi St. 1.3
Auburn Arkansas 1.6
South Carolina Vanderbilt 2.5
Tennessee Kentucky 4.1
Pepperdine San Francisco -3.7
Loyola Marymount Gonzaga -17.2
Pacific BYU -6.0
Santa Clara Portland 4.4
Saint Mary’s San Diego 13.9
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Central Florida Temple 1.5
Wichita St. South Florida 27.0
Cincinnati SMU 6.6
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 0.5
Ohio St. Michigan St. -6.7
Maryland Iowa 8.2
Utah Arizona St. -2.4
Stanford USC -5.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Michigan St. 119.3 BTEN
2 Duke 119.1 ACC
3 Villanova 119.0 BIGE
4 Purdue 118.2 BTEN
5 Kansas 116.7 B12
6 Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
7 Texas Tech 114.8 B12
8 Virginia 114.7 ACC
9 North Carolina 114.4 ACC
10 Oklahoma 114.0 B12
11 Xavier 113.9 BIGE
12 West Virginia 113.9 B12
13 Wichita St. 113.8 AAC
14 Arizona 113.5 P12
15 Arkansas 112.9 SEC
16 Cincinnati 112.8 AAC
17 Arizona St. 112.8 P12
18 Creighton 112.7 BIGE
19 Notre Dame 112.1 ACC
20 TCU 111.9 B12
21 Florida St. 111.9 ACC
22 Seton Hall 111.5 BIGE
23 Saint Mary’s 111.3 WCC
24 Clemson 111.2 ACC
25 Florida 111.2 SEC

PiRate Ratings By Conference (multi-bid conferences only)

Team PiRate Conf.
Wichita St. 113.8 AAC
Cincinnati 112.8 AAC
SMU 110.2 AAC
Houston 108.8 AAC
Temple 105.4 AAC
UCF 103.4 AAC
Tulsa 102.1 AAC
Tulane 101.2 AAC
Connecticut 100.5 AAC
Memphis 97.7 AAC
South Florida 90.8 AAC
East Carolina 89.8 AAC
Duke 119.1 ACC
Virginia 114.7 ACC
North Carolina 114.4 ACC
Notre Dame 112.1 ACC
Florida St. 111.9 ACC
Clemson 111.2 ACC
Miami FL 109.9 ACC
Virginia Tech 108.9 ACC
Louisville 108.5 ACC
Syracuse 108.3 ACC
Wake Forest 106.3 ACC
Boston College 105.4 ACC
North Carolina St. 105.2 ACC
Georgia Tech 100.1 ACC
Pittsburgh 97.3 ACC
Kansas 116.7 B12
Texas Tech 114.8 B12
Oklahoma 114.0 B12
West Virginia 113.9 B12
TCU 111.9 B12
Baylor 109.5 B12
Texas 109.2 B12
Kansas St. 108.2 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.1 B12
Iowa St. 103.1 B12
Villanova 119.0 BIGE
Xavier 113.9 BIGE
Creighton 112.7 BIGE
Seton Hall 111.5 BIGE
Butler 109.7 BIGE
Marquette 108.4 BIGE
St. John’s 106.1 BIGE
Providence 105.7 BIGE
Georgetown 103.3 BIGE
DePaul 102.0 BIGE
Michigan St. 119.3 BTEN
Purdue 118.2 BTEN
Michigan 110.3 BTEN
Maryland 109.4 BTEN
Ohio St. 109.1 BTEN
Minnesota 108.9 BTEN
Penn St. 108.0 BTEN
Northwestern 106.3 BTEN
Wisconsin 105.2 BTEN
Iowa 105.2 BTEN
Illinois 104.6 BTEN
Nebraska 104.0 BTEN
Indiana 101.5 BTEN
Rutgers 100.8 BTEN
Nevada 110.9 MWC
Boise St. 107.4 MWC
San Diego St. 107.2 MWC
UNLV 106.9 MWC
Fresno St. 104.6 MWC
Wyoming 101.5 MWC
Utah St. 100.7 MWC
New Mexico 99.6 MWC
Colorado St. 96.6 MWC
Air Force 92.4 MWC
San Jose St. 91.8 MWC
Arizona 113.5 P12
Arizona St. 112.8 P12
USC 108.8 P12
Oregon 107.7 P12
UCLA 107.3 P12
Utah 106.4 P12
Washington 102.3 P12
Colorado 101.2 P12
Stanford 100.8 P12
Oregon St. 100.6 P12
Washington St. 99.8 P12
California 97.7 P12
Arkansas 112.9 SEC
Florida 111.2 SEC
Tennessee 111.0 SEC
Auburn 111.0 SEC
Kentucky 110.9 SEC
Texas A&M 110.8 SEC
Missouri 109.8 SEC
Alabama 107.9 SEC
LSU 106.2 SEC
Mississippi St. 105.3 SEC
Georgia 105.1 SEC
Vanderbilt 105.1 SEC
Mississippi 104.1 SEC
South Carolina 104.1 SEC
Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
Saint Mary’s 111.3 WCC
BYU 105.9 WCC
San Diego 101.4 WCC
San Francisco 99.7 WCC
Pacific 96.9 WCC
Loyola Marymount 95.2 WCC
Santa Clara 94.0 WCC
Pepperdine 93.0 WCC
Portland 92.6 WCC

This Week’s Estimate of Who’s In The Big Dance

Note–This is not our Bracketology Gurus report.  We expect that our gurus will begin sending us this data by the first of February.  Until then, this is our best guess as to who would be in the field if it began today.

America East

Vermont 1-0/10-5

American

Cincinnati 2-0/13-2

Wichita St. 2-0/12-2

SMU 2-1/12-4

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island 2-0/10-3

Atlantic Coast

Duke 1-1/13-1

North Carolina 1-1/12-3

Virginia  2-0/13-1

Miami (Fla.) 1-1/12-2

Clemson 2-0/13-1

Florida St. 1-1/12-2

Notre Dame 2-0/12-3

Louisville 1-0/11-3

Syracuse 1-1/12-3

Atlantic Sun

Florida Gulf Coast 0-0/9-8

Big 12

West Virginia 2-0/13-1

Oklahoma 2-0/12-1

Kansas 1-1/11-3

TCU 1-1/13-1

Texas Tech 2-0/13-1

Texas 1-1/10-4

Baylor 0-2/10-4

Big East

Xavier 3-0/15-1

Seton Hall 2-0/13-2

Villanova 1-1/13-1

Creighton 2-1/12-3

Butler 2-1/12-4

Big Sky

Montana 3-0/10-5

Big South

Radford 2-0/9-6

Big Ten

Michigan St. 3-0/15-1

Purdue 3-0/14-2

Ohio St. 3-0/12-4

Michigan 2-1/13-3

Minnesota 2-1/13-3

Maryland 2-2/13-4

Big West

UC-Davis 1-0/10-5

Colonial

Charleston 2-0/11-3

Conference USA

Middle Tennessee 2-0/10-4

Horizon

Northern Kentucky 2-0/9-5

Ivy

Pennsylvania 0-0/9-5

Metro Atlantic

Canisius 2-0/8-7

Mid-American

Central Michigan 1-0/12-2

Mideastern Athletic

UNC-Central 1-0/7-8

Missouri Valley

Missouri St. 3-0/13-3

Mountain West

Nevada 3-0/14-3

Boise St. 3-0/13-2

Northeast

Robert Morris 3-0/9-7

Ohio Valley

Belmont 3-0/11-5

Pac-12

Arizona 2-0/12-3

Arizona St. 0-2/12-2

UCLA 2-1/11-4

USC 2-1/11-5

Patriot

Navy 1-1/10-5

Southeastern

Kentucky 2-0/12-2

Florida 2-0/10-4

Auburn 1-0/13-1

Texas A&M 0-2/11-3

Arkansas 1-1/11-3

Missouri 1-0/11-3

Mississippi St. 1-0/13-1

Southern

UNC-Greensboro 1-0/10-4

Southland

Stephen F. Austin 1-1/12-3

Southwestern Athletic

Jackson St. 2-0/5-10

Summit

South Dakota 2-0/14-4

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette 3-0/13-3

West Coast

Gonzaga 3-0/13-3

Saint Mary’s 3-0/14-2

Western Athletic

New Mexico St. 0-0/12-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 21-25, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Kent St. 16.2 16.9 16.6
Eastern Michigan Bowling Green 17.7 16.8 17.7
Ball St. Miami (O) -20.5 -20.5 -21.0
Mississippi St. Ole Miss 11.6 12.9 12.7
TCU Baylor 24.2 21.2 24.4
Toledo Western Michigan 7.5 8.1 8.3
Virginia Virginia Tech -13.7 -14.2 -13.2
Central Michigan Northern Illinois 1.1 1.8 0.8
Buffalo Ohio U -9.4 -8.6 -8.4
Arkansas Missouri -7.9 -6.6 -7.6
San Diego St. New Mexico 20.5 20.7 21.2
Houston Navy 4.2 3.6 3.9
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) -16.3 -14.9 -15.8
Nebraska Iowa -9.3 -9.1 -9.0
Troy Texas St. 24.9 23.0 25.2
Central Florida South Florida 6.8 8.8 7.8
Florida Int’l. Western Kentucky -2.7 -2.2 -2.7
Texas Texas Tech 12.5 12.7 13.8
UCLA California 1.6 3.1 2.6
Cincinnati Connecticut 2.6 2.6 3.2
Syracuse Boston College -1.6 -3.0 -2.2
Rutgers Michigan St. -8.2 -9.5 -9.5
Purdue Indiana -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
Michigan Ohio St. -13.6 -11.4 -14.8
North Carolina St. North Carolina 14.0 14.1 14.7
Wake Forest Duke 5.9 4.8 7.1
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -6.8 -5.8 -6.5
Tennessee Vanderbilt 4.4 3.6 3.9
Kansas St. Iowa St. 2.3 2.1 1.3
Kentucky Louisville -6.0 -5.9 -7.1
Georgia Tech Georgia -13.3 -15.3 -15.0
Maryland Penn St. -24.0 -21.5 -24.8
Illinois Northwestern -21.9 -20.0 -23.1
Rice North Texas -12.7 -12.6 -13.2
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -27.1 -26.5 -28.5
Air Force Utah St. -0.3 0.9 -0.3
Marshall Southern Miss. 8.0 8.3 9.2
Nevada UNLV 3.8 4.0 4.7
Washington Washington St. 11.8 11.8 12.1
San Jose St. Wyoming -26.8 -25.4 -27.0
Utah Colorado 2.7 4.6 4.7
Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas St. -8.3 -8.7 -10.3
Middle Tennessee Old Dominion 6.9 5.8 7.7
Minnesota Wisconsin -19.4 -16.0 -19.2
Stanford Notre Dame 5.3 4.8 4.3
South Carolina Clemson -18.2 -16.7 -18.4
LSU Texas A&M 11.2 11.1 12.2
Fresno St. Boise St. -8.2 -7.7 -8.0
SMU Tulane 6.9 7.1 6.8
Oklahoma St. Kansas 41.7 37.8 43.5
Arizona St. Arizona 0.6 1.2 1.3
Oklahoma West Virginia 18.4 16.8 19.0
Oregon Oregon St. 16.6 14.9 17.3
New Mexico St. Idaho 9.9 7.5 9.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Georgia Southern 8.3 7.9 9.0
Tulsa Temple 5.1 3.9 4.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA -0.2 -0.5 -0.5
Memphis East Carolina 27.0 24.9 27.7
UAB UTEP 16.1 13.1 17.8
Auburn Alabama -7.3 -5.9 -6.0
Florida Florida St. -8.9 -8.4 -7.9
Hawaii BYU -3.4 -2.2 -3.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Retro Rankings

Based on what the teams have done for the entire season and not forward looking

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 TCU
14 Washington
15 Mississippi St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Washington St.
18 Michigan
19 Oklahoma St.
20 Memphis
21 Michigan St.
22 Stanford
23 Northwestern
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Wake Forest
28 Iowa St.
29 Iowa
30 South Florida
31 South Carolina
32 Boston College
33 Texas A&M
34 Louisville
35 Toledo
36 San Diego St.
37 Texas
38 Florida Atlantic
39 Oregon
40 Georgia Tech
41 West Virginia
42 Arizona
43 Navy
44 Florida St.
45 Arizona St.
46 Purdue
47 Kentucky
48 Northern Illinois
49 Missouri
50 Fresno St.
51 Kansas St.
52 Indiana
53 UCLA
54 Troy
55 Houston
56 Army
57 Ohio
58 Texas Tech
59 Virginia
60 SMU
61 Utah
62 California
63 North Texas
64 Duke
65 Florida
66 Wyoming
67 Syracuse
68 Maryland
69 Minnesota
70 Marshall
71 Ole Miss
72 Colorado
73 Western Michigan
74 Nebraska
75 Colorado St.
76 Central Michigan
77 Tulane
78 Pittsburgh
79 Utah St.
80 Arkansas St.
81 Temple
82 Tennessee
83 Akron
84 Arkansas
85 Southern Miss.
86 Florida Int’l.
87 Appalachian St.
88 North Carolina
89 Rutgers
90 UAB
91 Vanderbilt
92 UTSA
93 Georgia St.
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Buffalo
96 Air Force
97 Western Kentucky
98 Louisiana Tech
99 Middle Tennessee
100 Miami (O)
101 UNLV
102 Tulsa
103 Cincinnati
104 Connecticut
105 East Carolina
106 Massachusetts
107 Old Dominion
108 UL-Monroe
109 UL-Lafayette
110 New Mexico St.
111 Baylor
112 South Alabama
113 Illinois
114 BYU
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico
117 Idaho
118 Oregon St.
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Coastal Carolina
124 Georgia Southern
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

PiRate Ratings For This Week

Forward Looking Predictive Ratings totally unrelated to rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
2 Ohio St. 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
3 Auburn 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
4 Clemson 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
5 Georgia 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
6 Oklahoma 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
7 Penn St. 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
8 Miami 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
9 Washington 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
10 Wisconsin 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
13 U S C 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
14 Stanford 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
15 Virginia Tech 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
16 L S U 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
17 Notre Dame 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
18 Florida St. 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
19 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
20 Louisville 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
21 Michigan 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
22 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
23 Washington St. 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
24 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
25 Texas 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
26 Northwestern 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
27 Wake Forest 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
28 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
29 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
30 Iowa 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
31 Georgia Tech 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
32 Memphis 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
33 West Virginia 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
34 Boston College 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
35 Missouri 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Texas A&M 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
38 Duke 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
39 S. Carolina 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
40 Oregon 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
41 Kentucky 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
43 Arizona 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
44 Indiana 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
45 Utah 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
46 Arizona St. 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
47 Florida 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
48 Pittsburgh 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
49 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
50 Colorado 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
51 Purdue 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
52 Syracuse 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
53 California 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
54 Ole Miss 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
55 U C L A 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Texas Tech 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
57 Virginia 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
58 San Diego St. 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
59 Toledo 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Houston 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
62 Minnesota 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
63 Navy 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
64 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
65 Florida Atlantic 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
66 Army 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
67 Tennessee 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
68 Ohio U 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
69 Wyoming 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
70 Nebraska 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
74 SMU 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
75 Vanderbilt 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
76 Western Michigan 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
77 Fresno St. 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
79 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
80 Tulsa 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
81 Troy 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
84 Utah St. 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
85 Tulane 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
86 Temple 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
87 Oregon St. 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
88 Rutgers 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
89 Appalachian St. 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
90 Marshall 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
91 Air Force 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
92 W. Kentucky 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
93 Massachusetts 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
94 U T S A 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Nevada 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
97 Illinois 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
98 BYU 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
99 Akron 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
100 N. Texas 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
101 Middle Tennessee 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
102 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
103 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
104 U N L V 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
105 Louisiana Tech 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
106 East Carolina 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Florida Int’l. 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
109 Connecticut 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
110 Cincinnati 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
111 New Mexico 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
112 UL-Lafayette 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
113 Georgia St. 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
114 Old Dominion 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
115 UL-Monroe 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
116 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
117 Hawaii 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
118 UAB 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
120 Bowling Green 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
121 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
122 Georgia Southern 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
125 Rice 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
126 Coastal Carolina 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
127 Charlotte 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
128 San Jose St. 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
129 U T E P 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 7-0 10-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-1 9-1 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 3-4 5-6 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
East Carolina 2-5 3-8 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
Connecticut 2-5 3-8 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
Cincinnati 1-6 3-8 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 6-1 9-1 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
Houston 4-3 6-4 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
Navy 4-3 6-4 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
SMU 3-4 6-5 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
Tulsa 1-6 2-9 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
Tulane 3-4 5-6 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 10-1 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
Florida St. 3-5 4-6 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
N. Carolina St. 5-2 7-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Louisville 4-4 7-4 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
Wake Forest 4-3 7-4 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
Boston College 3-4 6-5 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
Syracuse 2-5 4-7 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-0 10-0 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
Virginia Tech 4-3 8-3 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-5 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
Duke 2-5 5-6 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
Pittsburgh 2-5 4-7 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
Virginia 3-4 6-5 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
N. Carolina 1-6 3-8 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 7-1 10-1 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
Oklahoma St. 5-3 8-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 6-2 9-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Texas 5-3 6-5 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
Iowa State 5-3 7-4 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Kansas St. 4-4 6-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-3 7-4 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
Texas Tech 2-6 5-6 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
Baylor 1-7 1-10 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-8 1-10 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 9-2 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
Penn St. 6-2 9-2 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
Michigan 5-3 8-3 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
Indiana 2-6 5-6 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
Michigan St. 6-2 8-3 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
Maryland 2-6 4-7 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
Rutgers 3-5 4-7 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 8-0 11-0 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
Northwestern 6-2 8-3 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
Iowa 3-5 6-5 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
Purdue 3-5 5-6 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
Minnesota 2-6 5-6 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
Nebraska 3-5 4-7 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
Illinois 0-8 2-9 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 7-0 8-3 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
Marshall 4-3 7-4 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
W. Kentucky 4-3 6-5 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
Middle Tennessee 3-4 5-6 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
Florida Int’l. 4-3 6-4 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
Old Dominion 3-4 5-6 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
Charlotte 1-6 1-10 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-4 6-4 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
N. Texas 6-1 8-3 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
Southern Miss. 5-2 7-4 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
Louisiana Tech 3-4 5-6 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
UAB 5-2 7-4 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
Rice 1-6 1-10 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
U T E P 0-7 0-11 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-2 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
Army   8-3 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
Massachusetts   4-7 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
BYU   3-9 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
             
Indep. Averages     99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-2 8-3 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
Miami (O) 3-4 4-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 5-2 6-5 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
Buffalo 3-4 5-6 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
Bowling Green 2-5 2-9 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
Kent St. 1-6 2-9 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-1 9-2 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
Western Michigan 4-3 6-5 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
Northern Illinois 6-1 8-3 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
Eastern Michigan 2-5 4-7 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
Central Michigan 5-2 7-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-7 2-9 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-0 9-2 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-2 7-4 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
Utah St. 4-3 6-5 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
Air Force 3-4 4-7 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
New Mexico 1-6 3-8 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-2 9-2 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
Fresno St. 6-1 8-3 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
Nevada 2-5 2-9 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
U N L V 4-3 5-6 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
Hawaii 1-7 3-8 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
San Jose St. 0-7 1-11 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 6-2 9-2 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
Stanford 7-2 8-3 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
Oregon 3-5 6-5 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
California 2-6 5-6 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-8 1-10 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
Arizona 5-3 7-4 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
Utah 2-6 5-6 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
Arizona St. 5-3 6-5 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
U C L A 3-5 5-6 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 10-1 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
Missouri 3-4 6-5 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
S. Carolina 5-3 8-3 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
Kentucky 4-4 7-4 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
Florida 3-5 4-6 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
Tennessee 0-7 4-7 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
Vanderbilt 0-7 4-7 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 11-0 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
Auburn 6-1 9-2 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
L S U 5-2 8-3 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
Mississippi St. 4-3 8-3 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
Texas A&M 4-3 7-4 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
Ole Miss 2-5 5-6 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
Arkansas 1-6 4-7 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
Arkansas St. 5-1 6-3 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
N. Mexico St. 2-4 4-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
UL-Lafayette 4-2 5-5 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-6 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
Idaho 2-4 3-7 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Georgia Southern 1-5 1-9 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
Texas St. 1-6 2-9 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC La. Tech UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Houston Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Utah St.] Marshall
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Int’l. Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [UAB] [UNLV]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UCLA] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Utah] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Arizona
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Southern Miss.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Washington
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Wake Forest South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Arizona St.
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Indiana Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 NC St. Miss. St.
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Penn St. USC
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Notre Dame
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Memphis TCU
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Northwestern Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Miami (Fla.) Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Championship Games and Bowl Eligibles By Conference

If you are a fan of a team that will finish 5-6 or 5-7, you can forget your team playing in a bowl with a losing record this season.  In fact, we project two bowl eligible teams to miss out on all the fun this year, as we project 80 teams to be bowl eligible this season.

American Athletic

The UCF-USF winner this week will face Memphis for the conference championship.  It looks like UCF and Memphis will meet in Orlando in a rematch game.  UCF won the first one convincingly, but Memphis is several points better now than then.  The winner of this game almost assuredly plays in the New Year’s Six Bowl as the Group of 5 Representative, and it will more than likely be at the Peach Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy, Houston, SMU)

5-Wins: Temple and Tulane

Temple must win at Tulsa, which is doable but less than 50-50.

Tulane must win at SMU, which is also doable but less than 50-50 and less then Temple’s chances.

Atlantic Coast 

Clemson will play Miami (Fla.) in Charlotte.  The winner has about a 92% chance of gaining a Playoff spot, while the loser will most likely get an Orange Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville, NC St., Boston College, Miami, Va. Tech, Virginia

5-Wins: Georgia Tech and Duke

Georgia Tech would have to pull off the monumental upset of Georgia, which they may have about a 3-5% chance of doing.

Duke must win at Wake Forest, and the Demon Deacons are playing like a top 20 team.  The Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech, so they could be peaking at the right time.

4-Wins: Florida St.

The Seminoles were able to reschedule their cancelled hurricane game with UL-Monroe, and now they can become bowl eligible by beating Florida and ULM.  We believe their chances to get to 6-6 are about 70-75% in their favor.

Big 12

Oklahoma has clinched the top seed in the renewal of the Big 12 Championship Game.  TCU needs to beat Baylor this week to get the number two seed.  If the Horn Frogs croak against the Bears, then Oklahoma St. will get the bid with a win over hapless Kansas.  There is a very remote chance that Iowa St. could still get in, but it would require too many things to take place.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (Oklahoma, TCU, Okla. St., Iowa St., Texas, West Virginia, Kansas St.)

5-Wins: Texas Tech

Texas Tech closes the season at Texas, and we believe the Longhorns will handle the Red Raiders and most likely end the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock.

Big Ten

Wisconsin and Ohio State have clinched their divisions and will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Badgers’ defense may be up to the task to handle an inconsistent Buckeye offense.  If so, UW is Playoff-bound.  A Buckeye win opens the door for a one-loss Miami or one-loss Alabama team to get this bid, or if Miami and Alabama are unbeaten, there will be a big controversy over the #4 seed between a 2-loss Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Notre Dame, and maybe even an undefeated UCF if they win their last two games.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 8) (Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa)

5-Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota.

Indiana and Purdue play for the Old Oaken Bucket and a bowl bid, as the winner will be 6-6.

Minnesota must beat undefeated Wisconsin to finish 6-6.  With the Gophers’ offense struggling, and the Badgers defense peaking, UW could win this won in an ugly fashion in the neighborhood of 20-6.

Conference USA

This conference is going to strike it rich this bowl season with a possible 10 teams playing in December.

First, Florida Atlantic and North Texas will square off in one of the potentially best championship games in this league’s history.  Win or lose, we are hearing from sources that the Boca Raton Bowl would love to invite hometown team FAU.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (guaranteed to have 9) (Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l., Marshall, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA)

5-Wins: Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion play each other in Murfreesboro this week, so the winner will become bowl eligible.

Louisiana Tech hosts UTSA with a slumping offense, and we give the Bulldogs a 70% chance of winning this game and becoming the 10th bowl eligible CUSA team.  There will be slots available possibly for all 10 teams, and it is possible that two CUSA could face off in a bowl.

Independents

Army is 8-3 with the Navy game remaining.  The Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl bound.

Notre Dame actually counts with the ACC teams, so they are part of the ACC package, and we believe the Irish will  be enjoying Oranges this year, but only if they get by Stanford this week,.

Mid-American

Akron beat Ohio to win the Eastern Division title.  The Zips will play Toledo or Northern Illinois.  TU can clinch the Western Division title with a win at home against Western Michigan or a Northern Illinois loss at Central Michigan.  NIU can win if they beat CMU and WMU beats Toledo.

This league will receive an extra bid and possibly two extra bids.  See Below

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Akron, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan)

5-Wins: Buffalo

Buffalo hosts Ohio U this week, and a Bulls win will give them a 6-6 record.  There is a catch.  Buffalo most likely needs Louisiana Tech or Florida State to lose this week to guarantee a decent shot at a bowl.  We have the Bulls as team #79 in a 78-team bowl field.  There is another little possibility that could help Buffalo get over the top ahead of another bowl eligible team.  The MAC has two secondary bowl agreements, with the Quick Lane and the Foster Farms bowls.

Toledo at 10-2 might be attractive enough for the Foster Farms Bowl to invite the Rockets west to face Oregon, Stanford, Washington, or California.  The Quick Lane is most likely going to need a MAC team as well, so Buffalo could sneak in to a bowl through this back door ahead of a 10th CUSA team.

Mountain West

Here is where a conference championship game will not be as exciting as it should be, unless something really interesting takes place this week.  Boise State and Fresno State have clinched berths in the MWC Championship Game, but the two teams close out the regular season facing each other, so it will be an immediate rematch.  The Las Vegas Bowl bid goes to the winner of the second game.  Even if the Conference Champion loses by 50 points this week and wins by 1 next week, that team gets the Las Vegas Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Boise St., Colorado St., Wyoming, Utah St., Fresno St., San Diego St.)

5-Wins: UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels must win their rivalry game against Nevada, and they must do it in Reno.  UNLV has about a 50-50 shot at pulling it off, giving the MWC 7 bowl teams for 5 bowls.  Two at-large slots will be waiting for the 6th and 7th teams.

Pac-12

USC has clinched the South Division, and the Trojans hold a very minute chance of sneaking into the Playoffs.  More than likely, they are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game for a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

The North Division is still up for grabs between Washington State and Stanford.  If Washington State wins the Apple Cup, then the Pirate Mike Leach will have his team in the Championship Game.  If Washington wins, then Stanford takes the treasure away from the Pirate.

The bigger news in the Pac-12 is the firing of UCLA coach Jim Mora, Jr.  The Bruins still have a game to go at home against California, and the winner will be bowl eligible.  UCLA is actually hoping it can win the Chip Kelly Bowl.  Kelly is rumored to be headed to Westwood, but it is not confirmed.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 9) (Washington St., Stanford, Washington, Oregon, USC, Arizona St., Arizona)

5-Win Teams: California, UCLA, Utah, Colorado

Cal plays at UCLA, and the Bears hope they can swim with the Fisch’s.  Jedd Fisch will be UCLA coach for one or two games.

Colorado visits Utah, so the winner of that game will also be bowl eligible.

Look for the Pac-12 to place 2 at-large teams in bowls back east, most likely the two winners this week.

Southeastern

Normally a league with double digit bowl participants, the SEC is only going to have 9 teams playing in the postseason.

Georgia is waiting for the winner of the Iron Bowl to face off in the SEC Championship Game.  Auburn has become the sexy choice to knock off the number one Crimson Tide, but us old Buccaneers believe this just won’t happen.  We have Alabama set to be the top seed in the Playoffs, hosting team number four in the Sugar Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 9 (Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M)

5-Wins: None

Sun Belt

They have 12 teams in this league, but there is no championship game in the SBC.  The Sun Belt is most likely to have extra teams, including team number 80, or the second bowl eligible team left out of all the fun.

There are two weeks left in the SBC regular season, so there are some 4-6 teams still alive in the bowl hunt.

Bowl Eligible: 4 (Troy, Georgia St., Arkansas St., Appalachian St.)

5-Wins: UL-Lafayette

The Ragin’ Cajuns have two games left and need to win just one to most likely get their New Orleans Bowl bid that they always seem to get whenever they are bowl eligible.  ULL hosts 1-9 Georgia Southern this week and should secure their sixth win.  They finish at Appy State, where they are most likely to lose.

4-Wins: UL-Monroe and New Mexico St.

UL-Monroe has less than 0.5% chance of beating Arkansas St. at home this week and then winning at Florida St. the week after.  So, the Warhawks are basically out of the picture.

New Mexico St. has at least a 50-50 chance of finishing the season with wins over Idaho and South Alabama, both games in Las Cruces.  However, the Aggies do not have a great shot at getting into their first bowl since the 1960 Sun Bowl.  NMSU is leaving the Sun Belt and will become an independent next year.  The SBC has a history of being a tad bush league by shunning teams leaving their conference.  The Aggies have already told the league they can only accept bids to bowls close to home, and we believe they will get to spend the holidays very close to home, because they will not be invited to a bowl if they finish 6-6.  Of course, if two from Louisiana Tech, Buffalo, and Florida State lose, and if Duke loses to Wake Forest and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, then the Aggies will get an invitation at 6-6.  Whether or not they accept it, we cannot predict.

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have a festive Thanksgiving holiday.  Don’t let your tummy be the biggest loser this week.  Pace yourself and try to get some exercise.

Our schedule will be a little different this week.  We are putting out our Monday edition today on Sunday.  We will have both the NFL ratings and Money Line picks on Tuesday, and then we will return next Sunday night or Monday morning.

Thank You to all our followers.  You have made 2017 a record year for PiRate Rating readership.  A lot of you came on board back during March Madness, because we were very lucky to successfully pick all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Our basketball coverage will return just after New Year’s, as our ratings need all the teams to play 8 games before they make any sense.

 

November 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Akron 3.4 2.9 4.0
Buffalo Bowling Green 6.0 7.5 7.6
Western Michigan Kent St. 26.9 24.5 27.6
Ohio U Toledo -6.2 -5.0 -6.7
Central Michigan Eastern Michigan -1.4 -0.4 -1.4
Northern Illinois Ball St. 29.3 27.1 29.4
Appalachian St. Georgia Southern 21.7 19.1 22.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina 8.3 9.0 9.1
Cincinnati Temple -3.0 -1.6 -1.7
Stanford Washington -7.5 -6.1 -8.7
UNLV BYU 1.1 3.0 1.8
Maryland Michigan -11.6 -10.3 -11.2
South Carolina Florida 5.6 5.2 5.6
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech -2.9 -4.7 -4.6
East Carolina Tulane -8.2 -7.2 -8.6
Boston College North Carolina St. -4.0 -3.5 -4.1
Central Florida Connecticut 31.9 31.3 32.9
Syracuse Wake Forest 6.1 5.9 5.5
Penn St. Rutgers 33.0 31.3 34.0
Army Duke -3.3 -2.6 -1.4
Ohio St. Michigan St. 27.2 23.8 25.9
Illinois Indiana -11.6 -10.6 -13.1
Coastal Carolina Troy -22.2 -21.2 -20.8
Charlotte Middle Tennessee -11.2 -10.1 -11.6
Air Force Wyoming -2.0 -0.3 -0.7
Nevada San Jose St. 16.2 17.7 18.4
Baylor Texas Tech -2.2 -0.8 -1.1
Kansas St. West Virginia 3.1 2.6 2.6
Oklahoma TCU 6.6 7.2 6.7
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. -7.4 -6.6 -7.0
Louisville Virginia 13.1 13.0 12.7
Miami (Fla.) Notre Dame 3.1 2.6 1.6
Navy SMU 4.9 5.4 4.6
Utah Washington St. -7.0 -3.8 -6.8
Northwestern Purdue 10.4 9.3 10.2
Ole Miss Louisiana-Lafayette 25.1 22.2 23.6
Minnesota Nebraska 4.0 4.2 4.0
Mississippi St. Alabama -22.3 -17.9 -20.8
Louisiana Tech Florida Atlantic -5.0 -5.3 -5.9
Rice Southern Miss. -9.8 -9.5 -10.0
Colorado USC -9.7 -10.5 -11.7
Wisconsin Iowa 10.0 6.9 8.8
Auburn Georgia 1.0 -1.2 0.8
Missouri Tennessee 5.4 5.1 6.5
Texas A&M New Mexico 22.7 20.9 21.3
UCLA Arizona St. -1.0 -0.5 -1.5
Vanderbilt Kentucky -1.7 -1.5 -1.8
South Alabama Arkansas St. -8.4 -7.0 -10.0
Texas St. Georgia St. -8.3 -6.0 -9.0
North Texas UTEP 15.8 14.6 16.5
Texas Kansas 37.7 34.6 39.5
Marshall Western Kentucky 3.7 5.0 4.7
Florida Int’l. Old Dominion 8.9 6.6 9.9
UTSA UAB 15.0 14.0 14.0
Clemson Florida St. 14.4 12.8 15.3
LSU Arkansas 21.2 19.9 22.5
Arizona Oregon St. 16.3 15.0 16.8
Colorado St. Boise St. -2.2 -1.7 -2.6
Hawaii Fresno St. -6.3 -4.5 -7.0

The PiRate Ratings

Retro Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 Wisconsin
6 Miami (Fla)
7 Oklahoma
8 Penn St.
9 Central Florida
10 Ohio St.
11 Washington
12 TCU
13 USC
14 Auburn
15 Oklahoma St.
16 Michigan St.
17 Virginia Tech
18 Michigan
19 Iowa
20 Mississippi St.
21 Memphis
22 Washington St.
23 Iowa St.
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 Stanford
27 LSU
28 Toledo
29 Northwestern
30 South Florida
31 Boston College
32 Arizona
33 South Carolina
34 Wake Forest
35 West Virginia
36 San Diego St.
37 Arizona St.
38 Georgia Tech
39 Houston
40 Texas
41 Texas A&M
42 SMU
43 Oregon
44 Navy
45 Louisville
46 Florida St.
47 Syracuse
48 Florida Atlantic
49 Utah
50 Virginia
51 Northern Illinois
52 Texas Tech
53 Kentucky
54 Army
55 Troy
56 California
57 Fresno St.
58 Purdue
59 Kansas St.
60 Pittsburgh
61 Nebraska
62 UCLA
63 Marshall
64 Maryland
65 Wyoming
66 Ohio
67 Arkansas St.
68 Florida
69 Colorado
70 Missouri
71 Duke
72 Minnesota
73 Indiana
74 Tennessee
75 Colorado St.
76 Ole Miss
77 Florida Int’l.
78 North Texas
79 Western Michigan
80 Akron
81 Rutgers
82 Arkansas
83 Vanderbilt
84 Utah St.
85 Temple
86 Central Michigan
87 UAB
88 Air Force
89 Eastern Michigan
90 Tulane
91 UTSA
92 Southern Miss.
93 Cincinnati
94 Appalachian St.
95 Georgia St.
96 Louisiana Tech
97 UNLV
98 Middle Tennessee
99 North Carolina
100 Western Kentucky
101 Buffalo
102 Tulsa
103 Miami (O)
104 New Mexico St.
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 New Mexico
109 UL-Monroe
110 East Carolina
111 Oregon St.
112 South Alabama
113 UL-Lafayette
114 Bowling Green
115 BYU
116 Idaho
117 Nevada
118 Old Dominion
119 Massachusetts
120 Kent St.
121 Hawaii
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 San Jose St.
129 UTEP
130 Georgia Southern

PiRate Predictive Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.2 134.2 136.9 136.4
2 Ohio St. 130.9 128.5 131.0 130.1
3 Georgia 128.4 128.5 128.7 128.5
4 Washington 128.9 126.1 129.3 128.1
5 Clemson 127.8 125.3 127.3 126.8
6 Penn St. 127.1 125.3 127.8 126.7
7 Auburn 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
8 Oklahoma 123.5 122.3 124.1 123.3
9 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
10 Notre Dame 122.2 120.8 122.9 121.9
11 Miami 122.3 120.4 121.5 121.4
12 Virginia Tech 120.6 119.9 120.8 120.4
13 Wisconsin 121.6 118.8 120.1 120.2
14 T C U 119.9 118.1 120.4 119.4
15 U S C 119.2 118.4 119.1 118.9
16 Stanford 118.4 117.0 117.6 117.7
17 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
18 L S U 117.0 114.9 117.6 116.5
19 Florida St. 116.4 115.5 114.9 115.6
20 Texas 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9
21 Iowa 114.6 114.9 114.3 114.6
22 Michigan 114.3 114.3 113.4 114.0
23 Washington St. 114.8 112.5 114.4 113.9
24 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.0 113.8
25 Georgia Tech 114.7 112.2 113.2 113.4
26 Mississippi St. 112.9 113.3 113.1 113.1
27 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
28 Louisville 112.1 111.2 111.9 111.7
29 Syracuse 112.2 110.5 111.6 111.4
30 West Virginia 110.3 110.8 110.7 110.6
31 Kansas St. 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
32 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 South Florida 109.8 108.7 110.4 109.6
35 Wake Forest 109.2 107.5 109.1 108.6
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Memphis 108.5 107.8 109.1 108.4
38 Arizona 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
39 Michigan St. 106.7 107.7 108.1 107.5
40 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
41 Pittsburgh 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4
42 Texas A&M 107.1 105.1 106.3 106.2
43 Arizona St. 106.6 105.6 106.3 106.2
44 Florida 106.5 105.9 105.7 106.0
45 Kentucky 106.7 105.7 105.6 106.0
46 Duke 106.6 105.9 105.3 105.9
47 Oregon 106.5 104.7 105.6 105.6
48 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.4 105.3
49 Missouri 106.0 104.1 105.3 105.1
50 Utah 104.8 105.7 104.6 105.0
51 Toledo 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
52 Ole Miss 105.0 103.5 103.6 104.0
53 Texas Tech 103.9 103.8 103.1 103.6
54 California 104.5 102.4 102.6 103.2
55 Indiana 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.2
56 Houston 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.0
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 Tennessee 103.6 102.0 101.8 102.5
59 Minnesota 102.4 103.3 101.6 102.4
60 U C L A 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.2
61 San Diego St. 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.3 101.8
63 Virginia 102.0 101.2 102.1 101.8
64 Colo. State 101.8 100.8 101.6 101.4
65 Nebraska 101.3 102.1 100.6 101.3
66 Navy 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.7
67 N. Carolina 101.2 100.3 100.1 100.5
68 Army 100.3 100.3 100.9 100.5
69 Maryland 99.7 101.0 99.2 99.9
70 Baylor 98.7 100.1 99.0 99.3
71 SMU 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.7
72 Wyoming 99.3 98.0 98.3 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.0 98.0 98.3
74 Western Michigan 97.7 96.7 98.6 97.7
75 Eastern Michigan 97.2 96.9 97.8 97.3
76 Rutgers 97.1 97.0 96.8 97.0
77 Florida Atlantic 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
78 Arkansas St. 95.8 96.7 97.3 96.6
79 Ohio U 95.5 96.6 96.6 96.2
80 Troy 95.1 95.3 94.5 95.0
81 Oregon St. 95.5 95.2 94.1 94.9
82 Fresno St. 94.7 93.9 95.2 94.6
83 Air Force 94.2 94.7 94.6 94.5
84 Tulsa 94.6 94.4 94.1 94.4
85 Northern Illinois 94.1 94.0 95.0 94.3
86 Temple 94.0 94.4 94.1 94.2
87 Central Michigan 93.3 94.0 93.9 93.7
88 Tulane 92.9 93.3 93.1 93.1
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
91 U T S A 91.0 93.1 92.0 92.0
92 Utah St. 92.3 91.5 91.9 91.9
93 W. Kentucky 90.9 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Massachusetts 90.2 89.4 90.5 90.0
95 Cincinnati 88.5 90.2 89.9 89.5
96 Miami (O) 88.1 90.2 89.3 89.2
97 BYU 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.9
98 Illinois 88.9 90.0 87.8 88.9
99 Louisiana Tech 87.6 89.4 88.2 88.4
100 Akron 87.3 89.7 87.8 88.3
101 Florida Int’l. 87.7 87.9 88.8 88.2
102 U N L V 87.3 88.9 87.5 87.9
103 Nevada 86.2 88.0 87.5 87.2
104 New Mexico 86.9 86.7 87.5 87.0
105 N. Mexico St. 87.4 85.8 87.7 87.0
106 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.4 86.8
107 Middle Tennessee 86.1 87.3 86.9 86.8
108 Hawaii 84.9 85.9 84.7 85.2
109 S. Alabama 84.4 86.7 84.3 85.1
110 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
111 Connecticut 84.0 86.0 84.1 84.7
112 N. Texas 83.9 85.5 84.6 84.7
113 Georgia St. 84.1 83.9 84.1 84.1
114 UL-Lafayette 82.4 83.8 82.5 82.9
115 Old Dominion 81.8 84.4 81.9 82.7
116 East Carolina 82.2 83.7 82.0 82.6
117 Bowling Green 81.9 82.8 82.3 82.3
118 UL-Monroe 82.3 83.1 81.5 82.3
119 Idaho 80.9 82.0 81.7 81.5
120 UAB 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.7
121 Kansas 79.9 83.3 78.6 80.6
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.3 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.3 75.4 72.6 73.8
125 Charlotte 72.4 74.7 72.7 73.3
126 San Jose St. 73.0 73.3 72.1 72.8
127 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
128 U T E P 71.0 73.9 71.1 72.0
129 Coastal Carolina 70.8 72.2 71.7 71.6
130 Ball St. 67.8 69.8 68.6 68.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 5-0 8-0 112.9 114.3 114.0 113.8
South Florida 5-1 8-1 109.8 108.7 110.4 109.6
Temple 2-3 4-5 94.0 94.4 94.1 94.2
Cincinnati 1-4 3-6 88.5 90.2 89.9 89.5
Connecticut 2-4 3-6 84.0 86.0 84.1 84.7
East Carolina 1-4 2-7 82.2 83.7 82.0 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.5 107.8 109.1 108.4
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.0
Navy 3-3 5-3 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.7
SMU 3-2 6-3 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.6 94.4 94.1 94.4
Tulane 1-4 3-6 92.9 93.3 93.1 93.1
             
AAC Averages     97.4 97.9 97.8 97.7
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 6-1 8-1 127.8 125.3 127.3 126.8
N. Carolina St. 4-1 6-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-4 3-5 116.4 115.5 114.9 115.6
Louisville 2-4 5-4 112.1 111.2 111.9 111.7
Syracuse 2-3 4-5 112.2 110.5 111.6 111.4
Boston College 3-3 5-4 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Wake Forest 2-3 5-4 109.2 107.5 109.1 108.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 8-0 122.3 120.4 121.5 121.4
Virginia Tech 3-2 7-2 120.6 119.9 120.8 120.4
Georgia Tech 3-3 4-4 114.7 112.2 113.2 113.4
Pittsburgh 2-3 4-5 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4
Duke 1-5 4-5 106.6 105.9 105.3 105.9
Virginia 3-2 6-3 102.0 101.2 102.1 101.8
N. Carolina 0-6 1-8 101.2 100.3 100.1 100.5
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 5-1 8-1 123.5 122.3 124.1 123.3
Oklahoma St. 4-2 7-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-1 8-1 119.9 118.1 120.4 119.4
Texas 3-3 4-5 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9
Iowa State 4-2 5-4 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
West Virginia 4-2 6-3 110.3 110.8 110.7 110.6
Kansas St. 3-3 5-4 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
Texas Tech 1-5 4-5 103.9 103.8 103.1 103.6
Baylor 1-5 1-8 98.7 100.1 99.0 99.3
Kansas 0-6 1-8 79.9 83.3 78.6 80.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-1 7-2 130.9 128.5 131.0 130.1
Penn St. 4-2 7-2 127.1 125.3 127.8 126.7
Michigan 4-2 7-2 114.3 114.3 113.4 114.0
Michigan St. 5-1 7-2 106.7 107.7 108.1 107.5
Indiana 0-6 3-6 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.2
Maryland 2-4 4-5 99.7 101.0 99.2 99.9
Rutgers 3-3 4-5 97.1 97.0 96.8 97.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 6-0 9-0 121.6 118.8 120.1 120.2
Iowa 3-3 6-3 114.6 114.9 114.3 114.6
Northwestern 4-2 6-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Purdue 2-4 4-5 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Minnesota 1-5 4-5 102.4 103.3 101.6 102.4
Nebraska 3-3 4-5 101.3 102.1 100.6 101.3
Illinois 0-6 2-7 88.9 90.0 87.8 88.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 5-0 6-3 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
Marshall 3-2 6-3 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
W. Kentucky 3-2 5-4 90.9 90.9 91.7 91.2
Florida Int’l. 4-1 6-2 87.7 87.9 88.8 88.2
Middle Tennessee 2-3 4-5 86.1 87.3 86.9 86.8
Old Dominion 1-4 3-6 81.8 84.4 81.9 82.7
Charlotte 1-4 1-8 72.4 74.7 72.7 73.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-3 5-3 91.0 93.1 92.0 92.0
Louisiana Tech 2-3 4-5 87.6 89.4 88.2 88.4
Southern Miss. 3-2 5-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
N. Texas 5-1 6-3 83.9 85.5 84.6 84.7
UAB 4-2 6-3 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.7
Rice 1-4 1-8 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-5 0-9 71.0 73.9 71.1 72.0
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-1 122.2 120.8 122.9 121.9
Army   7-2 100.3 100.3 100.9 100.5
Massachusetts   2-7 90.2 89.4 90.5 90.0
BYU   2-8 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.9
             
Indep. Averages     100.5 99.9 100.7 100.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 4-1 7-2 95.5 96.6 96.6 96.2
Miami (O) 2-3 3-6 88.1 90.2 89.3 89.2
Akron 4-1 5-4 87.3 89.7 87.8 88.3
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 85.4 87.7 87.4 86.8
Bowling Green 2-3 2-7 81.9 82.8 82.3 82.3
Kent St. 1-4 2-7 73.7 75.3 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-0 8-1 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
Western Michigan 3-2 5-4 97.7 96.7 98.6 97.7
Eastern Michigan 1-4 3-6 97.2 96.9 97.8 97.3
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 94.1 94.0 95.0 94.3
Central Michigan 3-2 5-4 93.3 94.0 93.9 93.7
Ball St. 0-5 2-7 67.8 69.8 68.6 68.7
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 5-0 7-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-2 6-4 101.8 100.8 101.6 101.4
Wyoming 4-1 6-3 99.3 98.0 98.3 98.5
Air Force 3-2 4-5 94.2 94.7 94.6 94.5
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.3 91.5 91.9 91.9
New Mexico 1-5 3-6 86.9 86.7 87.5 87.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.0
Fresno St. 4-1 6-3 94.7 93.9 95.2 94.6
U N L V 3-3 4-5 87.3 88.9 87.5 87.9
Nevada 1-4 1-8 86.2 88.0 87.5 87.2
Hawaii 1-5 3-6 84.9 85.9 84.7 85.2
San Jose St. 0-5 1-9 73.0 73.3 72.1 72.8
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.4 92.6 92.5
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-1 8-1 128.9 126.1 129.3 128.1
Stanford 5-2 6-3 118.4 117.0 117.6 117.7
Washington St. 4-2 7-2 114.8 112.5 114.4 113.9
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.5 104.7 105.6 105.6
California 2-5 5-5 104.5 102.4 102.6 103.2
Oregon St. 0-6 1-8 95.5 95.2 94.1 94.9
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 6-1 8-2 119.2 118.4 119.1 118.9
Arizona 4-2 6-3 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
Arizona St. 4-2 5-4 106.6 105.6 106.3 106.2
Colorado 2-5 5-5 106.5 105.0 104.4 105.3
Utah 2-4 5-4 104.8 105.7 104.6 105.0
U C L A 2-4 4-5 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-0 9-0 128.4 128.5 128.7 128.5
S. Carolina 4-3 6-3 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
Florida 3-4 3-5 106.5 105.9 105.7 106.0
Kentucky 3-3 6-3 106.7 105.7 105.6 106.0
Missouri 1-4 4-5 106.0 104.1 105.3 105.1
Tennessee 0-5 4-5 103.6 102.0 101.8 102.5
Vanderbilt 0-5 4-5 102.5 101.7 101.3 101.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 6-0 9-0 138.2 134.2 136.9 136.4
Auburn 5-1 7-2 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
L S U 3-2 6-3 117.0 114.9 117.6 116.5
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 112.9 113.3 113.1 113.1
Texas A&M 3-3 5-4 107.1 105.1 106.3 106.2
Ole Miss 2-4 4-5 105.0 103.5 103.6 104.0
Arkansas 1-4 4-5 98.8 98.0 98.0 98.3
             
SEC Averages     112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-2 95.8 96.7 97.3 96.6
Troy 4-1 7-2 95.1 95.3 94.5 95.0
Appalachian St. 4-1 5-4 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
N. Mexico St. 2-3 4-5 87.4 85.8 87.7 87.0
S. Alabama 2-3 3-6 84.4 86.7 84.3 85.1
Georgia St. 4-1 5-3 84.1 83.9 84.1 84.1
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-4 82.4 83.8 82.5 82.9
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-5 82.3 83.1 81.5 82.3
Idaho 2-3 3-6 80.9 82.0 81.7 81.5
Georgia Southern 0-4 0-8 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
Texas St. 1-4 2-7 73.3 75.4 72.6 73.8
Coastal Carolina 0-5 1-8 70.8 72.2 71.7 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.7 84.4 83.7 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.4 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 100.5 99.9 100.7 100.4
7 AAC 97.4 97.9 97.8 97.7
8 MWC 92.4 92.4 92.6 92.5
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.7 84.4 83.7 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Int’l. UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 San Diego St. Utah
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Wyoming
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Fla. Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Georgia St.] Southern Miss.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Cincinnati [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [California]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Boise St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UNLV] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Western Ky.] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Stanford
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Fresno St.] Washington St.
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy [Miami (O)]
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Arizona St.
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 NC State Auburn
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Colorado St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville LSU
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC TCU
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Ohio St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Clemson Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Georgia Notre Dame
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

A Great Weekend Ahead

After looking at the schedule for this week, the folks at the sports networks could call this one, “moving week.” There are numerous games where teams in contention for a playoff spot are facing tough, sometimes trap games. There are a host of games where the winner will stay in bowl contention, while fans of the loser can start thinking about basketball season, which begins this Friday.

Then, there is another interesting phenomenon. There are a host of teams that have six losses and must win out to get to 6-6 and get into a bowl. Most will lose again to fall out of the bowl picture, but until they get to seven losses, these teams will bring their A-games to the field. What that means is that a 3-6 team that is a 15-point underdog to a 6-3 team that is already bowl eligible but has no chance to win a division or conference might be ready to play its best game of the year and maybe pull off the upset. Even if they lose to go to 3-7, they might make it a close game and lose by single digits.

Here’s a look at the interesting games.
Game Involving Playoff Contenders Against Each Other
Notre Dame at Miami (Fla.)
The winner of this game takes a major step forward toward earning one of the magic four spots in the playoffs. The Irish have a home game with Notre Dame and a road game against Stanford remaining, while the Hurricanes have a home game with Virginia, and a road game against Pittsburgh (as well as needing to win the ACC Championship Game).

Games Important In Deciding Conference or Division Winner
Akron at Miami (O) & Toledo at Ohio U

Akron and Ohio are currently tied for the MAC East lead at 4-1. Miami (O) has 6 losses and must win out to become bowl eligible, while Toledo is still in contention for a New Year’s 6 Bowl if the Rockets win out and get help from other teams beating UCF, USF, and Memphis.

Washington at Stanford

Washington currently leads Stanford by a half game and Washington St. by a full game in the Pac-12 North.

Michigan St. at Ohio St.

Both teams are 5-1 in the Big Ten East and most likely out of playoff contention. The winner hasn’t wrapped up the division yet, as Michigan and Penn State are both one game back at 4-2.

TCU at Oklahoma
Both teams are 5-1 and tied for first in the Big 12. The winner almost assuredly makes the Big 12 Championship Game, while the loser will have to fight it out with Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. for the second spot.

Iowa St. at Oklahoma St.
Both teams are 4-2, and the winner stays in contention for second place, which in this league gets you into the Championship Game (WVU is also 4-2).

Potential Trap Games For Playoff Contenders
Alabama at Mississippi St.
Georgia at Auburn
The nation’s top two teams have trap games this week. Alabama had a tough home game with LSU and lost several key defensive players to injury. Plus, in the past five years, the teams that have upset the Crimson Tide have had top notch dual threat quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat quarterback.

Georgia beat South Carolina, and the Bulldogs were in control of the game with not much doubt of losing, but Coach Kirby Smart did not get the opportunity to empty his bench and rest his regulars. Now, the Bulldogs play at Auburn, where the Tigers are still in contention in the SEC West, but only if they beat Georgia.

Must Win Out To Stay In Bowl Contention
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan has six losses and must win out to become bowl eligible. The Eagles have winnable games with Miami (O) and Bowling Green remaining on their schedule, a CMU (5-4) loss could put the Chippewas in Jeopardy of getting to six wins.

Michigan at Maryland
Maryland is now 4-5 after losing to Rutgers, and this looks like loss number six. With remaining games against Michigan State in East Lansing and Penn State at home, the Terrapins have little chance of going 2-1 and getting to 6-6, but they aren’t eliminated yet. Michigan can still win the East Division, but they Wolverines must win out, including games against Wisconsin and Ohio St.

Florida at South Carolina
Florida has just five losses, but the Gators only play 11 games due to the hurricane earlier this year. Interim coach Randy Shannon fared little better than Jim McElwain, losing big to Missouri, so the chances of Florida winning out against South Carolina, UAB, and Florida St. are close to nil. Even the UAB game might be tough to win.

Indiana at Illinois
Indiana had a lot of near misses this year. The Hoosiers have some talented players, but their depth is not up to par with the teams ahead in the Big Ten East. Indiana sits at 3-6 and must win out against Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue. It’s possible, but the way the Boilermakers are playing, we believe Purdue will get revenge for their near miss last year.

Arkansas St. at South Alabama
South Alabama is 3-6 needs a big upset over 4-0/5-2 Arkansas St. and then must win on the road against winless Georgia Southern and a New Mexico St. team that most likely would also be playing for bowl contention. Coach Joey Jones has taken the Jaguars to multiple bowls in the past, but this year is looking bleak.

Florida St. at Clemson
Florida St. is in the same boat as rival Florida. The Seminoles have had their season turned upside down, losing a game to the hurricane as well as a quarterback very early in the season. The Seminoles must pull the playoff-destroying upset of Clemson to have a chance to make the season-ender with Florida meaningful. We will give FSU the win over Delaware St. on November 18.
Late Note–FSU may be able to reschedule their cancelled game with Louisiana-Monroe at the end of the regular season, so the Seminoles could still possibly get to 6-6 with wins over Delaware St., Florida, and UL-Monroe.

Probable Bowl Eliminator Games
Temple at Cincinnati
Temple is 4-5, while Cincinnati is 3-6. Obviously, the Bearcats must win out (East Carolina and UConn after TU). Temple was not really in contention for a bowl until the Owls thumped Navy. With Central Florida to follow this game, if TU loses to fall to 4-6, you can almost completely toss the Owls out of the bowl picture. But if TU wins this game to square their record at 5-5, then the Owls would have a chance to finish 6-6 by defeating Tulsa.

Wake Forest at Syracuse
Wake Forest is 5-4 and Syracuse is 4-5. The loser of this game technically can still make a bowl, but scheduling will make it very difficult. If the Demon Deacons win this game, they are bowl eligible, while a Syracuse win would mean the Orangemen would still have to beat either Louisville or Boston College.

Nebraska at Minnesota
Truth be told, we do not believe the winner of this game will win another game this year, so the 5-5 victor will most likely fall to 5-7. Nebraska must still play Penn St. and Iowa, while Minnesota has Northwestern and Wisconsin remaining.

Tennessee at Missouri
These two 4-5 teams are going in opposite directions. Missouri was expected to go 0-8 in the conference, while Tennessee was expected to compete for a division flag this year. Instead, the Tigers are two wins away from sneaking into a bowl with three winnable games left on their schedule. We feel Mizzou will win at least two if not all three and earn a bowl trip, while Tennessee will have a hard time getting their fifth win.

Can Get Into Bowl Contention With Win
BYU at UNLV
UNLV was not in the bowl picture until just two weeks ago, but now the Rebels have won consecutive games to improve to 4-5. The Rebels absolutely must win this game to get to 5-5 before finishing with road games against New Mexico and Nevada. At 5-5, they should be able to pick up one more win.

In Jeopardy of Missing Bowl With Loss
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is another team relegated to playing 11 games due to the hurricane. At 4-4, the Yellow Jackets need to finish 2-1 and will play at Duke before hosting Georgia. It’s not likely to happen for Paul Johnson this year.

Texas Tech at Baylor
Texas Tech has fallen to 4-5 and must finish 2-1 with closing games with TCU and Texas. Baylor finally won a game last week against lowly Kansas, but sometimes when a team opens the year with many losses before winning their first game, the next game turns out to be the best one they play. TTU needs to be prepared for an ambush in Waco this week. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s seat is simmering hot, and a loss in this game most likely sends him into unemployment. Even a win in this one might just delay the firing by a few weeks.

USC at Colorado
Colorado is 5-5 with a road game at Utah to follow this one. The Buffalos may have a better chance of upsetting the Trojans in Boulder than winning in SLC.

Arizona St. at UCLA
UCLA is 4-5 and has the combination of key injuries and team dissension. Coach Jim Mora, Jr. is more than likely not going to return as coach, especially with Chip Kelly available and with a supposed desire to coach on the West Coast. The Bruins have remaining games with USC and Cal, and it doesn’t look promising that the sons of Westwood will win two of these three.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 4-5 and must win two of three with games against Missouri and Tennessee following this one. The Missouri game now appears to be quite difficult, while Kentucky is playing for one of the top second tier bowls like the Outback and Taxslayer. Vanderbilt’s defense may have a hard time holding the Wildcats under 30 points and the Tigers under 40, so it could be 5-7 or 4-8 for the Commodores, unless they pull off the upset in this one.

Arkansas at LSU
Arkansas is in the same boat with Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri (all 4-5). The Razorbacks narrowly defeated one of the nation’s weakest FBS team in Coastal Carolina, so expecting Arky to win two of their final three (Mississippi St. & Missouri) is quite a stretch. The chance that Coach Bret Bielema will return in Fayetteville is a much larger stretch.

 

 

October 30, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 31-November 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Kent St. Bowling Green 0.4 1.0 0.1
Ohio U Miami (O) 8.3 7.5 8.1
Western Michigan Central Michigan 10.7 8.6 11.4
Toledo Northern Illinois 12.7 12.9 13.5
Eastern Michigan Ball St. 29.2 26.7 28.6
Temple Navy -6.4 -6.7 -6.7
Troy Idaho 18.6 17.5 17.5
Florida Atlantic Marshall 7.1 7.8 6.9
Tulsa Memphis -7.0 -6.4 -7.9
Utah UCLA -0.9 1.1 -0.7
Kansas Baylor -12.3 -10.8 -13.3
North Carolina St. Clemson -7.7 -5.8 -7.1
Purdue Illinois 16.3 15.4 17.6
Kentucky Ole Miss 6.3 6.4 7.0
Florida St. Syracuse 7.6 8.4 6.8
Nebraska Northwestern -6.4 -4.5 -7.3
Iowa Ohio St. -22.9 -20.2 -23.2
West Virginia Iowa St. -0.1 0.6 -1.2
Miami (Fla.) Virginia Tech 1.1 -0.1 0.1
Rutgers Maryland -3.1 -4.5 -3.2
Virginia Georgia Tech -13.3 -11.4 -11.9
Boise St. Nevada 23.4 19.7 22.0
Arizona St. Colorado 0.7 1.7 2.5
Texas St. New Mexico St. -11.9 -8.1 -12.8
Georgia Southern Georgia St. -7.4 -5.6 -8.0
Louisiana-Monroe Appalachian St. -11.8 -9.2 -12.5
Old Dominion Charlotte 12.5 12.8 12.3
Tennessee Southern Miss. 23.3 20.4 21.0
Texas A&M Auburn -16.0 -15.9 -16.8
Air Force Army 1.4 1.6 1.3
Indiana Wisconsin -13.0 -10.0 -11.1
Tulane Cincinnati 9.7 7.9 8.8
Georgia South Carolina 22.7 23.8 24.0
Mississippi St. Massachusetts 28.5 29.5 28.6
SMU Central Florida -11.9 -12.9 -13.0
Vanderbilt Western Kentucky 13.4 12.6 11.2
Texas Tech Kansas St. -3.2 -3.2 -4.0
TCU Texas 5.3 3.1 5.0
Louisiana Tech North Texas 8.5 8.4 8.7
Washington Oregon 22.6 21.7 24.0
Arkansas Coastal Carolina 35.4 33.4 33.8
Michigan Minnesota 12.1 11.4 11.8
Oklahoma St. Oklahoma  4.7 4.6 5.1
Notre Dame Wake Forest 16.5 16.4 17.6
UAB Rice 3.2 5.4 4.9
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette 7.7 8.5 7.6
New Mexico Utah St. -1.6 -1.1 -0.7
Fresno St. BYU 8.8 7.9 9.9
UNLV Hawaii 5.7 6.3 6.1
Wyoming Colorado St. -0.9 -1.2 -1.9
Florida Int’l. UTSA -3.4 -5.2 -3.7
Middle Tennessee UTEP 15.3 13.7 15.7
Missouri Florida -6.5 -7.8 -6.4
Alabama LSU 25.8 23.5 24.1
Michigan St. Penn St. -22.5 -18.9 -22.2
San Jose St. San Diego St. -19.3 -19.3 -20.7
California Oregon St. 11.8 10.0 11.3
Washington St. Stanford -1.4 -2.3 -1.4
USC Arizona 12.9 13.8 13.6
Connecticut South Florida -23.2 -19.9 -24.1
Houston East Carolina 23.7 21.7 24.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

“Retro”

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 Ohio St.
6 Penn St.
7 Wisconsin
8 Central Florida
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma
13 TCU
14 Virginia Tech
15 USC
16 Iowa St.
17 Mississippi St.
18 Auburn
19 Michigan
20 Stanford
21 North Carolina St.
22 Memphis
23 Michigan St.
24 LSU
25 Washington St.
26 Boise St.
27 Iowa
28 Toledo
29 Arizona
30 South Florida
31 Northwestern
32 South Carolina
33 Georgia Tech
34 Wake Forest
35 Navy
36 Boston College
37 San Diego St.
38 West Virginia
39 Texas A&M
40 Texas
41 Oregon
42 Houston
43 Kentucky
44 UCLA
45 Arizona St.
46 SMU
47 Syracuse
48 Texas Tech
49 Louisville
50 Northern Illinois
51 Maryland
52 Troy
53 Florida
54 Nebraska
55 Florida Atlantic
56 Florida St.
57 Fresno St.
58 Pittsburgh
59 Colorado
60 Marshall
61 California
62 Western Michigan
63 Purdue
64 Colorado St.
65 Army
66 Indiana
67 Utah
68 Kansas St.
69 Minnesota
70 Arkansas St.
71 Wyoming
72 Air Force
73 Virginia
74 Ohio
75 Tennessee
76 Arkansas
77 Duke
78 Akron
79 North Texas
80 Florida Int’l.
81 Missouri
82 Ole Miss
83 Vanderbilt
84 UTSA
85 Appalachian St.
86 Tulane
87 Rutgers
88 Louisiana Tech
89 Southern Miss.
90 Utah St.
91 UAB
92 Georgia St.
93 Central Michigan
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Western Kentucky
96 Cincinnati
97 Tulsa
98 Temple
99 UNLV
100 North Carolina
101 Buffalo
102 Miami (O)
103 Middle Tennessee
104 New Mexico
105 New Mexico St.
106 Illinois
107 South Alabama
108 Connecticut
109 Oregon St.
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 BYU
113 Baylor
114 Hawaii
115 UL-Monroe
116 Idaho
117 Massachusetts
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Old Dominion
120 Kent St.
121 Bowling Green
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 San Jose St.
129 UTEP
130 Georgia Southern

Predictive

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 134.8 137.8 137.2
2 Ohio St. 135.7 133.3 135.8 134.9
3 Penn St. 129.8 127.6 130.7 129.4
4 Georgia 128.6 128.7 129.0 128.8
5 Washington 127.4 124.7 127.8 126.6
6 Clemson 127.6 125.0 127.1 126.6
7 Auburn 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
8 Oklahoma St. 124.4 123.3 125.2 124.3
9 Notre Dame 122.4 120.9 123.3 122.2
10 Virginia Tech 122.3 121.6 122.5 122.1
11 Oklahoma 121.7 120.7 122.1 121.5
12 Miami 120.4 118.5 119.6 119.5
13 Wisconsin 120.3 117.4 118.8 118.9
14 U S C 118.7 117.9 118.6 118.4
15 T C U 118.7 116.8 119.0 118.1
16 Stanford 118.8 117.4 118.2 118.1
17 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.2 116.9 116.7
18 Texas 115.8 116.2 116.5 116.2
19 Florida St. 116.6 115.7 115.1 115.8
20 L S U 116.2 114.3 116.7 115.7
21 Georgia Tech 116.4 114.0 115.2 115.2
22 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.6 114.6 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.1 114.5 114.4 114.0
24 Washington St. 114.4 112.1 113.8 113.4
25 Iowa State 112.9 112.8 114.2 113.3
26 Michigan 112.8 112.9 111.8 112.5
27 Louisville 111.8 110.9 111.6 111.4
28 Syracuse 112.0 110.3 111.4 111.2
29 Florida 111.0 110.4 110.2 110.5
30 Kansas St. 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
31 Northwestern 110.6 109.4 110.6 110.2
32 West Virginia 109.8 110.4 110.0 110.1
33 South Florida 110.0 108.8 110.8 109.9
34 Iowa 109.8 110.1 109.5 109.8
35 Boston College 109.6 109.3 109.6 109.5
36 Wake Forest 109.0 107.4 108.7 108.3
37 Arizona 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
38 S. Carolina 108.4 107.4 107.5 107.8
39 Oregon 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
40 Kentucky 107.5 106.3 106.6 106.8
41 Texas A&M 107.4 105.4 106.6 106.5
42 Memphis 106.5 105.9 107.0 106.4
43 Colorado 107.7 106.0 105.6 106.4
44 Boise St. 106.8 105.1 106.8 106.2
45 Pittsburgh 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.1
46 Duke 106.3 105.6 105.0 105.6
47 U C L A 106.0 105.2 105.4 105.5
48 Michigan St. 104.3 105.7 105.5 105.2
49 Arizona St. 105.4 104.6 105.1 105.0
50 Toledo 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
51 Indiana 104.3 104.5 104.7 104.5
52 Texas Tech 104.2 104.1 103.4 103.9
53 Minnesota 103.7 104.5 103.0 103.7
54 Ole Miss 104.2 102.9 102.6 103.2
55 California 104.4 102.3 102.5 103.1
56 Tennessee 104.2 102.5 102.4 103.0
57 Houston 103.0 102.5 103.2 102.9
58 Purdue 102.7 102.9 102.9 102.8
59 Utah 102.1 103.3 101.7 102.4
60 Navy 101.7 102.4 101.9 102.0
61 Vanderbilt 102.4 101.6 101.1 101.7
62 Colo. State 102.0 101.0 101.9 101.6
63 Maryland 101.1 102.4 100.8 101.4
64 Arkansas 101.8 101.0 101.0 101.3
65 Nebraska 101.1 102.0 100.3 101.1
66 Missouri 101.5 99.6 100.8 100.6
67 N. Carolina 100.9 100.0 99.8 100.2
68 Virginia 100.1 99.6 100.3 100.0
69 Western Michigan 99.6 98.4 100.7 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.0 99.1 99.7 99.3
71 SMU 98.2 98.6 98.5 98.4
72 Wyoming 99.1 97.8 98.0 98.3
73 Army 98.0 98.1 98.5 98.2
74 Baylor 97.2 98.9 97.2 97.8
75 Florida Atlantic 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
76 Air Force 96.3 96.7 96.8 96.6
77 Tulsa 96.4 96.5 96.0 96.3
78 Arkansas St. 95.5 96.4 97.0 96.3
79 Eastern Michigan 96.0 95.6 96.4 96.0
80 Ohio U 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
81 Troy 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7
82 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
83 Oregon St. 95.6 95.3 94.2 95.0
84 Fresno St. 94.8 93.9 95.4 94.7
85 Appalachian St. 95.2 93.7 95.1 94.7
86 Tulane 94.1 94.2 94.4 94.2
87 Northern Illinois 93.9 93.8 94.8 94.1
88 U T S A 92.3 94.4 93.5 93.4
89 Temple 92.7 93.2 92.7 92.9
90 Marshall 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
91 Central Michigan 91.4 92.3 91.8 91.8
92 Utah St. 92.1 91.3 91.7 91.7
93 W. Kentucky 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
94 Miami (O) 88.6 90.7 89.9 89.7
95 Illinois 89.4 90.5 88.3 89.4
96 Louisiana Tech 88.5 90.2 89.3 89.4
97 BYU 89.1 89.0 88.5 88.8
98 Massachusetts 88.8 88.1 89.0 88.6
99 Cincinnati 87.3 89.3 88.6 88.4
100 Akron 87.0 89.4 87.5 88.0
101 U N L V 87.2 88.8 87.4 87.8
102 Nevada 86.4 88.4 87.9 87.5
103 New Mexico 87.4 87.2 88.0 87.5
104 N. Mexico St. 87.5 85.9 87.8 87.1
105 Florida Int’l. 86.4 86.6 87.3 86.8
106 Buffalo 85.1 87.4 87.1 86.5
107 S. Alabama 85.7 88.0 85.7 86.5
108 Hawaii 85.0 86.0 84.8 85.3
109 Middle Tennessee 84.5 85.7 85.1 85.1
110 Connecticut 83.8 85.9 83.7 84.5
111 Southern Miss. 83.9 85.1 84.4 84.4
112 Georgia St. 84.3 84.0 84.3 84.2
113 N. Texas 83.1 84.8 83.6 83.8
114 Old Dominion 82.2 84.8 82.3 83.1
115 East Carolina 82.3 83.9 82.1 82.8
116 Kansas 81.9 85.0 80.9 82.6
117 UL-Lafayette 81.1 82.5 81.1 81.6
118 Idaho 80.2 81.4 80.9 80.8
119 UL-Monroe 80.4 81.5 79.5 80.5
120 Bowling Green 78.9 79.8 79.3 79.3
121 Kent St. 77.2 78.8 77.5 77.8
122 UAB 75.7 79.0 77.7 77.5
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.0 76.1 75.3 75.5
125 Georgia Southern 74.4 75.9 73.8 74.7
126 Texas St. 73.2 75.3 72.5 73.7
127 U T E P 72.1 75.0 72.4 73.2
128 Charlotte 72.2 74.5 72.5 73.1
129 Ball St. 69.3 71.4 70.3 70.3
130 Coastal Carolina 69.3 70.7 70.2 70.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 7-0 113.1 114.5 114.4 114.0
South Florida 4-1 7-1 110.0 108.8 110.8 109.9
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.7 93.2 92.7 92.9
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.3 89.3 88.6 88.4
Connecticut 2-3 3-5 83.8 85.9 83.7 84.5
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.3 83.9 82.1 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 4-1 7-1 106.5 105.9 107.0 106.4
Houston 3-2 5-3 103.0 102.5 103.2 102.9
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.7 102.4 101.9 102.0
SMU 3-1 6-2 98.2 98.6 98.5 98.4
Tulsa 1-4 2-7 96.4 96.5 96.0 96.3
Tulane 1-3 3-5 94.1 94.2 94.4 94.2
             
AAC Averages     97.4 98.0 97.8 97.7
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 5-1 7-1 127.6 125.0 127.1 126.6
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-2 116.9 116.2 116.9 116.7
Florida St. 2-4 2-5 116.6 115.7 115.1 115.8
Louisville 2-4 5-4 111.8 110.9 111.6 111.4
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 112.0 110.3 111.4 111.2
Boston College 3-3 5-4 109.6 109.3 109.6 109.5
Wake Forest 2-3 5-3 109.0 107.4 108.7 108.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 3-1 7-1 122.3 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 5-0 7-0 120.4 118.5 119.6 119.5
Georgia Tech 3-2 4-3 116.4 114.0 115.2 115.2
Pittsburgh 2-3 4-5 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.1
Duke 1-5 4-5 106.3 105.6 105.0 105.6
N. Carolina 0-6 1-8 100.9 100.0 99.8 100.2
Virginia 2-2 5-3 100.1 99.6 100.3 100.0
             
ACC Averages     112.6 111.4 112.0 112.0
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 4-1 7-1 124.4 123.3 125.2 124.3
Oklahoma 4-1 7-1 121.7 120.7 122.1 121.5
T C U 4-1 7-1 118.7 116.8 119.0 118.1
Texas 3-2 4-4 115.8 116.2 116.5 116.2
Iowa State 4-1 5-3 112.9 112.8 114.2 113.3
Kansas St. 2-3 4-4 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
West Virginia 3-2 5-3 109.8 110.4 110.0 110.1
Texas Tech 1-4 4-4 104.2 104.1 103.4 103.9
Baylor 0-5 0-8 97.2 98.9 97.2 97.8
Kansas 0-5 1-7 81.9 85.0 80.9 82.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.9 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-0 7-1 135.7 133.3 135.8 134.9
Penn St. 4-1 7-1 129.8 127.6 130.7 129.4
Michigan 3-2 6-2 112.8 112.9 111.8 112.5
Michigan St. 4-1 6-2 104.3 105.7 105.5 105.2
Indiana 0-5 3-5 104.3 104.5 104.7 104.5
Maryland 2-3 4-4 101.1 102.4 100.8 101.4
Rutgers 2-3 3-5 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 5-0 8-0 120.3 117.4 118.8 118.9
Northwestern 3-2 5-3 110.6 109.4 110.6 110.2
Iowa 2-3 5-3 109.8 110.1 109.5 109.8
Minnesota 1-4 4-4 103.7 104.5 103.0 103.7
Purdue 1-4 3-5 102.7 102.9 102.9 102.8
Nebraska 3-2 4-4 101.1 102.0 100.3 101.1
Illinois 0-5 2-6 89.4 90.5 88.3 89.4
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 4-0 5-3 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
Marshall 3-1 6-2 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
W. Kentucky 3-2 5-3 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
Florida Int’l. 3-1 5-2 86.4 86.6 87.3 86.8
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.5 85.7 85.1 85.1
Old Dominion 0-4 2-6 82.2 84.8 82.3 83.1
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.2 74.5 72.5 73.1
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-2 5-2 92.3 94.4 93.5 93.4
Louisiana Tech 2-2 4-4 88.5 90.2 89.3 89.4
Southern Miss. 3-2 5-3 83.9 85.1 84.4 84.4
N. Texas 4-1 5-3 83.1 84.8 83.6 83.8
UAB 3-1 5-2 75.7 79.0 77.7 77.5
Rice 1-3 1-7 75.0 76.1 75.3 75.5
U T E P 0-4 0-8 72.1 75.0 72.4 73.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   7-1 122.4 120.9 123.3 122.2
Army   6-2 98.0 98.1 98.5 98.2
BYU   2-7 89.1 89.0 88.5 88.8
Massachusetts   2-6 88.8 88.1 89.0 88.6
             
Independents Averages     99.6 99.0 99.8 99.5
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.6 90.7 89.9 89.7
Akron 4-1 5-4 87.0 89.4 87.5 88.0
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 85.1 87.4 87.1 86.5
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.9 79.8 79.3 79.3
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.2 78.8 77.5 77.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-0 7-1 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.6 98.4 100.7 99.6
Eastern Michigan 0-4 2-6 96.0 95.6 96.4 96.0
Northern Illinois 4-0 6-2 93.9 93.8 94.8 94.1
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.4 92.3 91.8 91.8
Ball St. 0-4 2-6 69.3 71.4 70.3 70.3
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-0 6-2 106.8 105.1 106.8 106.2
Colo. State 4-1 6-3 102.0 101.0 101.9 101.6
Wyoming 3-1 5-3 99.1 97.8 98.0 98.3
Air Force 3-2 4-4 96.3 96.7 96.8 96.6
Utah St. 2-3 4-5 92.1 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-4 3-5 87.4 87.2 88.0 87.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 3-2 7-2 99.0 99.1 99.7 99.3
Fresno St. 4-1 5-3 94.8 93.9 95.4 94.7
U N L V 2-3 3-5 87.2 88.8 87.4 87.8
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.4 88.4 87.9 87.5
Hawaii 1-4 3-5 85.0 86.0 84.8 85.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-8 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 4-1 7-1 127.4 124.7 127.8 126.6
Stanford 5-1 6-2 118.8 117.4 118.2 118.1
Washington St. 3-2 6-2 114.4 112.1 113.8 113.4
Oregon 2-4 5-4 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
California 1-5 4-5 104.4 102.3 102.5 103.1
Oregon St. 0-5 1-7 95.6 95.3 94.2 95.0
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 5-1 7-2 118.7 117.9 118.6 118.4
Arizona 4-1 6-2 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
Colorado 2-4 5-4 107.7 106.0 105.6 106.4
U C L A 2-3 4-4 106.0 105.2 105.4 105.5
Arizona St. 3-2 4-4 105.4 104.6 105.1 105.0
Utah 1-4 4-4 102.1 103.3 101.7 102.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 5-0 8-0 128.6 128.7 129.0 128.8
Florida 3-3 3-4 111.0 110.4 110.2 110.5
S. Carolina 4-2 6-2 108.4 107.4 107.5 107.8
Kentucky 3-2 6-2 107.5 106.3 106.6 106.8
Tennessee 0-5 3-5 104.2 102.5 102.4 103.0
Vanderbilt 0-5 3-5 102.4 101.6 101.1 101.7
Missouri 0-4 3-5 101.5 99.6 100.8 100.6
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 139.0 134.8 137.8 137.2
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
L S U 3-1 6-2 116.2 114.3 116.7 115.7
Mississippi St. 3-2 6-2 114.3 114.6 114.6 114.5
Texas A&M 3-2 5-3 107.4 105.4 106.6 106.5
Ole Miss 1-4 3-5 104.2 102.9 102.6 103.2
Arkansas 1-4 3-5 101.8 101.0 101.0 101.3
             
SEC Averages     112.3 111.0 111.7 111.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 96.4 97.0 96.3
Troy 3-1 6-2 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-3 95.2 93.7 95.1 94.7
N. Mexico St. 1-3 3-5 87.5 85.9 87.8 87.1
S. Alabama 2-2 3-5 85.7 88.0 85.7 86.5
Georgia St. 3-1 4-3 84.3 84.0 84.3 84.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 81.1 82.5 81.1 81.6
Idaho 2-2 3-5 80.2 81.4 80.9 80.8
UL-Monroe 3-3 3-5 80.4 81.5 79.5 80.5
Georgia Southern 0-3 0-7 74.4 75.9 73.8 74.7
Texas St. 1-3 2-6 73.2 75.3 72.5 73.7
Coastal Carolina 0-5 1-7 69.3 70.7 70.2 70.1
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.6 84.3 83.6 83.8

PiRate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.6 111.4 112.0 112.0
2 SEC 112.3 111.0 111.7 111.7
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.9 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 99.6 99.0 99.8 99.5
7 AAC 97.4 98.0 97.8 97.7
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.6 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Troy
Cure AAC SBC Navy Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Utah St.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [UAB] [Miami (O)]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tennessee]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Georgia St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida Air Force
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Utah] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Michigan] [Western Ky.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Tech Colorado
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Wake Forest [Southern Miss.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Nebraska
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Fresno St.] Washington St.
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Houston Boston College
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan St. Arizona
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Miami (Fla.) South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Iowa Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [Arizona St.]
Cotton At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Clemson
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Auburn
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 North Carolina St. Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Texas A&M
Peach At-large At-large Wisconsin Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Northwestern Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Georgia Ohio St.
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It has become an annual inclusion in the PiRate Ratings, printed on the first November weekend of every season, to post the famous football poem concerning the old Oakland Raiders from their heyday.  Since, we are only posting ratings and spreads without commentary in the NFL reports, we will include this poem today.

The Autumn Wind

By Steve Sabol

The Autumn Wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea,
With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weather beaten.
He wears a hooded sash,
With a silver hat about his head,
And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,
A villain big and bold.
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,
As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a Radier,
Pillaging just for fun.
He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,
And laugh when he’s conquered and won.


Another annual November rite includes the adding of Mid-American Conference football games Tuesdays and Wednesdays, so that from last Thursday, a football fan can watch some college or pro game every day of the week.  Of course, with the incredible World Series going on at the current time, who would watch Sunday Night Football, or the Tuesday (and maybe Wednesday) MAC games?

This week features another great slate of college football games.  There are Playoff eliminators, bowl eliminators, and bowl positioning games.  Additionally, there are possibilities where additional coaches could be let go before the end of the season, as the Chip Kelly Sweepstakes has now begun in earnest.

In case you haven’t heard, Florida let Jim McElwain go after the cocktail party in Jacksonville failed to serve any appetizers to the Gators.  The Bulldogs did all the eating, and Randy Shannon will now guide the Gators until the season ends.  That ending now looks to be against Florida State and not in a bowl game, as the Gators are now 3-4 with only 11 games to be played due to the hurricane.

Speaking of Florida State, the Seminoles also may finish play against Florida.  It looks like FSU could be heading toward a 5-6 record and not earn a bowl bid.

The top game this week has to be Bedlam.  Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State, and the winner stays in contention for a Playoff spot, while the loser hopes to be able to finish in second place to possibly earn a rematch with the winner in the Big 12 Championship. Game.

This past weekend saw Penn State, South Florida, and TCU fall from the unbeaten ranks, leaving Alabama, Georgia, Central Florida, Miami, and Wisconsin as the final five undefeated teams.  You will notice in our bowl projections, we have removed UCF from the New Year’s 6 Bowl in favor of Memphis, after this past weekend saw FCS school Austin Peay hang 33 points on the Knights.  Toledo is still very much alive in the Group of 5 race for the one NY6 bowl bid.

Our prognosticators here on the ship have looked through the spyglass, and they see some rough waters ahead for both Wisconsin and Miami, so it could be that the last two unbeaten teams just may square off prior to the Playoffs with the loser having a shot at revenge in the National Championship Game.

The Playoff Committee has never selected two teams from the same conference in the short history of NCAA Playoffs, but if Alabama and Georgia run the table in the regular season, and when they face off in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, they are the last two undefeated teams and ranked number one and number two, the loser would have a better than 50-50 chance of remaining in the top four, maybe even at number two!

Notre Dame is probably at the top of the one-loss team hierarchy in the Playoff race.  Their lone loss is by one point to Georgia, and if they win out, their strength of schedule should be enough to give them a Playoff invitation.

As for the fourth spot, how can you deny Oklahoma, if the Sooners win out, or Oklahoma State if the Cowboys win out?  Ohio State lost at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes need for the Sooners to lose again.  However, if Oklahoma State is the team that beats OU, and OSU wins out, it would be difficult not to include Mike Gundy’s team in as the fourth seed.

Then, there is Clemson.  The Tigers made it into the field last year with a 12-1 record, so wouldn’t it be the right thing to do to include the reigning national champion in the Playoff it is has the identical record to last season?

Ohio State can still improve its position with wins over Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but the Buckeyes realistically need for the Big 12 to produce a two-loss champion, and they might even need the ACC to do so as well.

There are some other interesting possibilities.  Georgia has to play at Auburn, and the Tigers could be playing for Coach Guz Malzahn’s job.  The Bulldogs must also face arch-rival Georgia Tech.  Alabama has tough games remaining against LSU this week, Mississippi State, and Auburn.  As dominant as the Crimson Tide have been in the Nick Saban era, they have only run the table one time, back in 2009.

The PiRate Lasses (5 wonderfully, brilliant, fun-loving ladies that give the Captain a hard time) demanded that some notice was made of their Money Line Parlays this past weekend.  They hit on 3 out of the 4 and came within an overtime of going 4-0.  Best of all, their two-team underdog parlay hit and paid off at +375 odds, so for the year, the parlay selections have gone from red numbers to black numbers.  Obviously, the Captain has lost control of the Thursday edition here, and you can expect to see the ladies do the game-picking for the rest of the season, or at least until their run of pure luck runs out.

October 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 26-28, 2017

Oh brother!  I leave my ladies in charge of the website for a few days, and when I return from a nice long weekend, they have rearranged all the e-furniture.  Worse, they exchanged the Money Line picks I had left with their own, and they actually enjoyed a winning week.  They issued four selections (totally different than what I had left to be published), and they won two of the four for a return on investment of 28%.

Believe me, I have not heard the end of this.  Mrs. Captain, of course, sided with her gender, and so this week, I must defer to the ladies to pick the parlays yet again.  All I have done is to organize their picks into the best possible parlay odds by sourcing the best odds from the available books.  What you have as a result are four more parlays, each returning greater than +120 odds (actually this week better than +150) while playing no more than three games per parlay.

Because the ladies selected to teams to win outright as underdogs, and to minimize risk, I have combined these two underdogs in one parlay that, if it wins, it would return an incredible payoff at +375 (a $100 investment would return $475).

One preface to this before you look at the parlays.  Two of the ladies here bleed scarlet and gray and believe that the Giant Horseshoe is a basilica, tabernacle, shrine, and temple.  They believe that script Ohio is akin to the holy scriptures.  Their key pick this week is Ohio State over Penn State, and to add to their partiality, they refer to the opponent at State Pen, and they believe James Franklin was set on Earth by Lucifer.

Personally, I see the Buckeyes ready to get their revenge, but I know Coach Franklin and have seen him work miracles at Vanderbilt.  If he could win at Georgia and Florida as a bigger underdog than his Nittany Lions will be tomorrow, then he can certainly channel his inner Tom Lasorda and get his team ready to run through the walls at said horseshoe.  I would not have selected this game as part of a parlay, but then I have ceded control of this submission to the lasses.

#1 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Marshall
Georgia Florida
#2 @ +162  
Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Vanderbilt
Notre Dame NC State
Texas Baylor
#3 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Iowa Minnesota
Ohio St. Penn St.
#4 @ +375  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Michigan St.
Wyoming New Mexico

Money Line Parlay Tutorial for newcomers to this site

If you are new to Money Lines and Parlays, hopefully this will explain it well enough for you to understand what is going on above.

When two sports teams play, the more familiar way to provide options for wagering is a pointspread.  For instance, say that Notre Dame is playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Alabama might be favored to win by 6 1/2 points.  In order for Alabama to win the game for those that bet on the Crimson Tide, they would have to win by 7 or more points.  If Notre Dame won or lost by 6 points or less, then those that wagered on Notre Dame would win their bets.

There is another way to bet on this game.  It is called the “Money Line.”  Pointspreads are not used.  Instead, you simply pick either Alabama or Notre Dame to win the game.  If you can bet on Alabama to win this game, even by one point, it sounds too good to be true.  Yes, there is a catch here.  In order to bet on Alabama, you must put up more money than the sports book, but if you bet on the underdog Irish to win the game, the book puts up more money than you.  This is why the wager is called a “money line.”

When you look at money line odds, the favorite will have a minus number, and the underdog will have a plus number, although there are times when a tossup game will have two minus numbers.  The reason for this is that the sports books must get their cut or vigorish.

Let’s look at a couple games to be played tonight.  Northern Illinois hosts Eastern Michigan, and NIU is a modest favorite.  The Money Line is available at about 15 sports books where one could make a wager in one’s home via the Internet.  The line may vary from site to sire, so it is best to shop around to find the best odds.

For our purposes in this tutorial, we will use one famous online sports book, Five Dimes.  At the present time, the Money Line odds at 5D for the NIU-EMU game is listed at:   Northern Illinois -275, Eastern Michigan +235.

If you want to wager on NIU, you must put up $275 for every $100 5 Dimes puts up.  If you wager $100 on NIU to win, you will $36.36 profit and receive back $136.36 if NIU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.  If you wager $100 on EMU to win, you will receive $275 profit and receive back $375 if EMU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.

When you combine two or more games into one money line wager, your odds improve, but your chances of winning all the games in the one wager go down.  Let’s say you want to combine three favorites into one betting wager.  Let’s say you are going to play a parlay that includes Favorite #1 at -250, Favorite #2 at -225, and Favorite #3 at -180.

How do yo determine what the odds would be on this parlay of three favorites, all of whom would have to win their games for you to win your wager?  I won’t bore you with the mathematical formula.  There is an easy way to figure the odds, and it is called a parlay calculator.  You don’t have to buy this from a Las Vegas book store.  They are available for free in many places online.  In our opinion, the parlay calculator at Vegasinsider.com is the easiest one to use.  You can find this calculator at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

First, we select $100 for the bet amount (you can put any other amount in this spot, but all of the PiRate Rating parlays are played at $100 per wager.  We simply input -250, -225-, and -180 adjacent to Team #1 Money Line, Team #2 Money Line, and Team #3 Money Line.  Then we click on “Calculate”, and we see the number $214.57 returned.  This means that if these three favorites we have selected all win their games, we will make a $214.57 profit and receive $314.57 in our account (The profit plus what we wagered).  If the three teams do not all win their games, we will be out the $100 we invested on this game.  It can be a headache to see two teams win their games, and then your final favored team loses in an upset due to a fourth quarter field goal, but it happens, and you have to live with it.

Our goal at the PiRate Ratings is to select parlays that return better than +120 odds, while betting mostly on favored teams.  We prefer to play no more than three games in a parlay, but there are times when we might play 6 or 7 prohibitive favorites when the odds look preferable.  We won a 7-team parlay once that returned +200 odds, and all 7 teams won by double-digits.  Of course, this is a rare event.  Every week, some big underdog will upset a favorite.  In recent weeks, we had some considerable underdogs pulling off big upsets.  Syracuse surprised Clemson.  Arizona State beat up on Washington, Arizona took out Washington State, Tulsa whipped Houston, Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Troy beat LSU.  These sure things that could have been included on parlays destroyed the selections.

As usual, read this and understand it: The PiRates never wager real currency on our selections.  We enjoy the fun that mathematics married to athletics brings a group of math geeks.  We only wager imaginary money on these games, and thus we have no worries about issuing these picks.  They are strictly for the fun of it, and enjoying a winning week is a win for mathematics and not our bank accounts.

Enjoy the games, but be just as wealthy on Sunday morning as you are on Saturday morning.

 

October 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Toledo -29.0 -26.8 -29.3
Georgia St. South Alabama -0.7 -3.5 -1.1
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.3 1.6
Oregon St. Stanford -25.0 -23.9 -25.8
Boston College Florida St. -11.7 -10.5 -10.5
Memphis Tulane 12.3 11.5 11.9
SMU Tulsa 4.6 4.9 5.2
Purdue Nebraska 5.4 4.3 7.0
Kentucky Tennessee 6.4 6.9 7.7
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.8 8.6 9.2
Akron Buffalo 4.2 4.3 2.7
South Florida Houston 13.5 12.7 14.7
Wake Forest Louisville -3.4 -3.8 -3.6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) -19.1 -17.9 -19.6
Michigan Rutgers 20.0 20.2 19.5
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13.2 14.2 14.3
Massachusetts Appalachian St. -4.6 -3.5 -4.3
Pittsburgh Virginia 6.2 6.9 5.1
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.0 13.8 14.7
Connecticut Missouri -9.8 -5.3 -8.6
West Virginia Oklahoma St. -11.3 -9.7 -12.0
Maryland Indiana -0.9 0.4 -1.6
Virginia Tech Duke 18.5 18.7 20.2
Illinois Wisconsin -30.8 -26.5 -30.8
Coastal Carolina Texas St. 3.9 2.4 6.4
Deleted Game 0 0 0
Kansas Kansas St. -29.6 -26.4 -30.5
Iowa Minnesota 9.5 8.5 10.0
Wyoming New Mexico 7.2 6.1 5.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -3.1 -6.4 -4.3
BYU San Jose St. 15.0 14.8 15.1
UTEP UTSA -18.4 -17.3 -19.5
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe 1.8 2.5 3.3
Colorado St. Air Force 15.8 14.0 15.6
Southern Miss. UAB 17.4 15.2 15.8
Colorado California 3.9 4.7 3.2
Arizona St. USC -5.0 -5.3 -4.7
Rice Louisiana Tech -10.8 -11.4 -11.3
Oregon Utah 5.3 1.8 3.9
Notre Dame N. Carolina St. 5.7 4.9 6.3
Washington UCLA 23.7 21.8 24.7
Troy Georgia Southern 23.8 22.5 24.0
Northwestern Michigan St. 10.4 7.1 9.5
Deleted Game 0 0 0
North Texas Old Dominion 3.4 2.7 3.9
Baylor Texas -12.9 -11.7 -13.7
Iowa St. TCU -6.6 -4.1 -6.1
Florida (n) Georgia -12.3 -13.6 -13.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 0.6 -2.3 0.1
Arizona Washington St. -10.0 -8.7 -10.7
Oklahoma Texas Tech 20.3 19.3 21.5
Ole Miss Arkansas 6.4 5.5 5.6
Ohio St. Penn St. 9.0 8.4 7.8
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 1.4 -1.5 0.5
Utah St. Boise St. -6.4 -5.5 -6.4
Fresno St. UNLV 16.4 12.9 17.4
Hawaii San Diego St. -7.1 -6.2 -8.0
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Florida Austin Peay 41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Penn St.
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Notre Dame
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Central Florida
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Michigan St.
15 Stanford
16 Virginia Tech
17 North Carolina St.
18 Washington St.
19 USC
20 Auburn
21 South Florida
22 Michigan
23 Texas A&M
24 Mississippi St.
25 LSU
26 Iowa St.
27 Memphis
28 Georgia Tech
29 Toledo
30 West Virginia
31 Iowa
32 Boise St.
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona St.
35 Navy
36 Louisville
37 Fresno St.
38 San Diego St.
39 Arizona
40 Florida St.
41 Wake Forest
42 Texas
43 Northwestern
44 UCLA
45 Florida
46 Boston College
47 Texas Tech
48 Marshall
49 Colorado St.
50 Kentucky
51 SMU
52 Syracuse
53 Oregon
54 Northern Illinois
55 Indiana
56 California
57 Utah
58 Purdue
59 Virginia
60 Western Michigan
61 Houston
62 Troy
63 Minnesota
64 Maryland
65 Appalachian St.
66 Kansas St.
67 Army
68 Florida Atlantic
69 Duke
70 Pittsburgh
71 Southern Miss.
72 Nebraska
73 Colorado
74 Tennessee
75 Ohio
76 Ole Miss
77 Arkansas St.
78 Vanderbilt
79 Tulane
80 Akron
81 Arkansas
82 Air Force
83 Rutgers
84 Wyoming
85 North Texas
86 Utah St.
87 UTSA
88 New Mexico
89 Louisiana Tech
90 Florida Int’l.
91 Western Kentucky
92 Missouri
93 Tulsa
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Central Michigan
96 Cincinnati
97 Temple
98 North Carolina
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico St.
101 Miami (O)
102 Georgia St.
103 Middle Tennessee
104 South Alabama
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 UL-Monroe
109 UAB
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 UNLV
113 Hawaii
114 Oregon St.
115 BYU
116 UL-Lafayette
117 Old Dominion
118 Kent St.
119 Idaho
120 Bowling Green
121 Massachusetts
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Charlotte
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Georgia Southern
130 Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
3 Penn St. 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
4 Georgia 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
5 Washington 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
6 Clemson 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
7 Auburn 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
8 Oklahoma St. 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
9 Virginia Tech 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
10 Oklahoma 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
11 Miami 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
12 Notre Dame 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
13 Wisconsin 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
14 Stanford 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
15 T C U 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
16 Florida St. 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
17 N. Carolina St. 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
18 Washington St. 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
19 U S C 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
20 L S U 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
21 Georgia Tech 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
22 Texas 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
24 Florida 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
25 Louisville 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
26 Michigan 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
27 Kansas St. 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
29 Iowa State 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
30 Mississippi St. 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
31 Syracuse 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
32 Northwestern 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
33 West Virginia 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
34 Iowa 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
35 Texas A&M 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
36 Arizona St. 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
37 S. Carolina 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
38 Kentucky 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
39 Wake Forest 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
40 U C L A 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
41 Boston College 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
42 Duke 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
43 Colo. State 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
44 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
45 Oregon 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
46 Indiana 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
47 Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
48 Michigan St. 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
49 Memphis 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
50 Utah 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
51 Arizona 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
52 California 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
53 Texas Tech 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
54 Minnesota 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
55 Ole Miss 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
56 Purdue 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
59 Toledo 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
60 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
61 Virginia 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
62 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
63 Houston 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
64 Maryland 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
65 Arkansas 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
66 Nebraska 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
67 Baylor 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
68 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
69 N. Carolina 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
70 SMU 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
71 San Diego St. 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
72 Army 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
73 Missouri 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
74 Fresno St. 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
75 Tulsa 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Eastern Michigan 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
77 Florida Atlantic 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
78 Tulane 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
79 Troy 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
80 Ohio U 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
82 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
83 Marshall 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
84 Appalachian St. 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
85 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
86 Northern Illinois 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
87 Utah St. 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
88 U T S A 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
89 Air Force 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
90 W. Kentucky 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
91 Temple 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
92 Oregon St. 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
93 Central Michigan 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
94 New Mexico 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
95 Miami (O) 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
96 Louisiana Tech 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
97 BYU 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
98 Massachusetts 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
99 Cincinnati 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
100 Illinois 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
101 N. Mexico St. 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
103 Akron 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
104 S. Alabama 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
105 Nevada 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
106 Connecticut 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
107 Buffalo 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
108 Hawaii 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
109 U N L V 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
110 Middle Tennessee 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
111 Florida Int’l. 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
112 N. Texas 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
113 Old Dominion 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
114 Georgia St. 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
115 East Carolina 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
116 UL-Lafayette 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
117 Kansas 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
118 UL-Monroe 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
119 Idaho 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
120 Bowling Green 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
121 Kent St. 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
122 San Jose St. 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
123 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
124 Georgia Southern 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
125 UAB 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
126 U T E P 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
129 Ball St. 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
130 Texas St. 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 6-0 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
South Florida 4-0 7-0 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
Connecticut 2-3 3-4 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 3-1 6-1 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
Houston 2-2 4-3 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
SMU 2-1 5-2 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
Tulsa 1-3 2-6 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
Florida St. 2-3 2-4 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
Louisville 2-3 5-3 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
Wake Forest 1-3 4-3 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
Boston College 2-3 4-4 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 2-1 6-1 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 4-0 6-0 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
Duke 1-4 4-4 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
Pittsburgh 1-3 3-5 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
Virginia 2-1 5-2 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
N. Carolina 0-5 1-7 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 3-1 6-1 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
T C U 4-0 7-0 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
Texas 2-2 3-4 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
Kansas St. 1-3 3-4 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
Iowa State 3-1 5-2 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
West Virginia 3-1 5-2 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
Texas Tech 1-3 4-3 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
Baylor 0-4 0-7 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
Kansas 0-4 1-6 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
Penn St. 4-0 7-0 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
Michigan 2-2 5-2 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
Indiana 0-4 3-4 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
Michigan St. 4-0 6-1 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
Maryland 1-3 3-4 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
Rutgers 2-2 3-4 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-0 7-0 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
Northwestern 2-2 4-3 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
Iowa 1-3 4-3 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
Minnesota 1-3 4-3 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
Purdue 1-3 3-4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
Illinois 0-4 2-5 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 3-0 4-3 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
Marshall 3-0 6-1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
W. Kentucky 3-1 5-2 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
Old Dominion 0-3 2-5 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 1-2 4-2 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
Louisiana Tech 1-2 3-4 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
Southern Miss. 3-1 5-2 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
N. Texas 3-1 4-3 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
Rice 1-2 1-6 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
U T E P 0-3 0-7 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
Army   6-2 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
BYU   1-7 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
Massachusetts   1-6 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
             
Indep. Averages     99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
Akron 3-1 4-4 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-1 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 2-5 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
Ball St. 0-3 2-5 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 4-0 6-2 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
Boise St. 3-0 5-2 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
Wyoming 2-1 4-3 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
Utah St. 2-2 4-4 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
Air Force 2-2 3-4 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
New Mexico 1-3 3-4 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-2 6-2 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
Fresno St. 4-0 5-2 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
U N L V 1-3 2-5 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
Stanford 4-1 5-2 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
Oregon 1-4 4-4 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
California 1-4 4-4 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-2 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
Arizona St. 3-1 4-3 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
U C L A 2-2 4-3 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
Colorado 1-4 4-4 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
Utah 1-3 4-3 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
Arizona 3-1 5-2 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
Florida 3-2 3-3 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
Kentucky 2-2 5-2 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
Missouri 0-4 2-5 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
L S U 3-1 6-2 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
Mississippi St. 2-2 5-2 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
Arkansas 0-4 2-5 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 2-1 5-2 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-2 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
S. Alabama 2-1 3-4 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
Georgia St. 2-1 3-3 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
UL-Monroe 3-2 3-4 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
Idaho 1-2 2-5 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-6 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
Coastal Carolina 0-4 1-6 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC North Texas South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Houston Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Arizona
New Mexico CUSA MWC La. Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC N. Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Colorado] Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Fla. Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 SMU [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Arkansas St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Navy San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Virginia [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Iowa USC
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [Western Ky.] Boston Coll.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech West Virginia
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Georgia St.
Cotton At-large At-large TCU Arizona St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1

 

 

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142