The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 19, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 pm

Sunday’s Games

Sunday, March 20, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
IllinoisHouston-3.3
VillanovaOhio St.4.4
DukeMichigan St.6.5
WisconsinIowa St.3.8
Texas TechNotre Dame7.3
AuburnMiami (Fla.)8.9
PurdueTexas2.6
ArizonaTCU10.3
XavierFlorida2.6
SMUWashington St.2.7
VanderbiltDayton2.3
North TexasVirginia3.2
OklahomaSt. Bonaventure6.7
VMIUNC Wilmington0.7
Florida AtlanticNorthern Colorado5.7
UNC GreensboroBoston1.3
Abilene ChristianTroy3.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Data

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Illinois233060.736.733.445.431.77.712.8
Houston101156.034.137.843.528.714.322.2
Villanova82861.035.930.948.230.54.811.5
Ohio St.1313160.037.328.846.233.5-1.06.0
Duke74457.636.831.846.928.64.112.7
Michigan St.385360.837.830.747.930.43.08.5
Wisconsin493860.131.225.949.932.33.47.3
Iowa St.1511059.736.828.250.728.11.23.8
Texas Tech65160.831.433.344.336.19.617.5
Notre Dame298456.838.022.549.327.0-2.53.8
Auburn24859.232.033.142.631.65.912.5
Miami (Fla.)1715757.035.323.453.928.8-5.01.3
Purdue310060.039.135.249.236.312.119.2
Texas321360.232.331.846.132.37.210.1
Arizona52058.235.434.541.935.17.017.9
TCU802460.330.437.847.931.212.516.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Game Analysis

Illinois vs. Houston

This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).

Villanova vs. Ohio St.

This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.

This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.

The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.

Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.

This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.

Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame

If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.

Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)

Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.

Purdue vs. Texas

This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.

Arizona vs. TCU

One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.

March 17, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Friday, March 18, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:14 pm
Friday, March 18, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
Ohio St.Loyola (Chi.)0.4
AuburnJacksonville St.16.4
Texas TechMontana St.15.0
PurdueYale15.1
VillanovaDelaware15.5
USCMiami (Fla.)2.1
AlabamaNotre Dame3.4
TexasVirginia Tech1.6
IllinoisChattanooga8.3
DukeCal St. Fullerton18.1
LSUIowa St.3.6
ArizonaWright St.20.4
HoustonUAB8.1
Michigan St.Davidson1.0
WisconsinColgate9.6
Seton HallTCU1.3

March 16, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Wednesday, March 16, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
Wright St.Bryant0.7
RutgersNotre Dame-1.6
Wake ForestTowson7.0
ToledoDayton0.3
VirginiaMississippi St.-0.1
SMUNicholls St.14.6
Saint LouisNorthern Iowa5.1
BYULong Beach St.11.8
FloridaIona7.1
Coastal CarolinaMaryland Eastern Shore12.5
Youngstown St.Morgan St.5.5
South AlabamaSoutheast Louisiana10.7
Florida Gulf CoastDetroit3.6
Maryland Baltimore Co.Merrimack5.5
Southern UtahKent St.1.6

March 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:00 am
Date3/7/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1ArizonaGonzagaBaylorAuburn
2KansasKentuckyDukePurdue
3WisconsinVillanovaTennesseeTexas Tech
4IllinoisProvidenceUCLAArkansas
5ConnecticutHoustonTexasAlabama
6Saint Mary’sLSUIowaOhio St.
7Colorado St.USCBoise St.Seton Hall
8Michigan St.Iowa St.Murray St.Marquette
9North CarolinaSan Diego St.TCUSan Francisco
10CreightonMichiganLoyola (Chi.)Davidson
11Miami (Fla.)MemphisXavierNotre Dame
12South Dakota St.North TexasWake ForestWyomingRutgersSMU
13IonaToledoChattanoogaVermont
14New Mexico St.PrincetonTowsonMontana St.
15Long Beach St.LongwoodJacksonville St.Colgate
16Georgia St.Purdue Ft. WayneBryantNicholls St.Norfolk St.Texas Southern

Last 4 Byes

Miami (Fla.)

Memphis

Xavier

Notre Dame

Last Four In

Wake Forest

Wyoming

Rutgers

SMU

First Four Out

VCU

Indiana

BYU

Dayton

Next Four Out

Texas A&M

Florida

Virginia Tech

Saint Louis

March 2, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Wednesday’s College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday’s Conference Tournaments
Big South Conference–1st Round
Charlotte, NC
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
RadfordNorth Carolina A&T1.2
UNC AshevilleCharleston Southern12.1
High PointHampton6.2
CampbellPresbyterian3.4
Northeast Conference–1st Round
Campus Sites
HomeVisitorsSpread
BryantCentral Connecticut14.6
WagnerSt. Francis (PA)13.2
Long IslandSacred Heart8.1
Mount St. Mary’sSt. Francis (NY)6.4
Ohio Valley Conference–1st Round
Evansville, IN
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Tennessee St.SIU-Edwardsville1.9
Austin PeayTennessee Tech-0.7
Wednesday’s Regular Schedule
HomeVisitorsSpread
St. John’sXavier1.3
AlabamaTexas A&M9.2
Seton HallGeorgetown15.4
MarshallWestern Kentucky-4.6
Louisiana TechOld Dominion7.9
CharlotteMiddle Tennessee-2.5
ClemsonGeorgia Tech9.6
Florida St.Notre Dame-0.8
Iowa St.Oklahoma St.2.8
Rhode IslandSaint Louis-2.6
La SalleSaint Joseph’s-1.0
MassachusettsFordham2.6
George WashingtonDuquesne5.3
DavidsonGeorge Mason8.3
IndianaRutgers6.3
Southern Miss.UAB-19.2
New OrleansHouston Baptist10.3
LamarUT Rio Grande Valley-2.4
CreightonConnecticut-3.2
Texas A&M-CCNicholls St.-1.0
Mississippi St.Auburn-5.0
ArkansasLSU2.6
TulsaWichita St.-3.0
DePaulMarquette-2.8
New Mexico St.Stephen F. Austin5.9
Wake ForestNorth Carolina St.10.8
Boston CollegeMiami (Fla.)-3.7
MarylandMinnesota5.9
California BaptistChicago St.14.3
UNLVWyoming0.8

Tuesday’s Conference Tournament Results

Atlantic Sun
1st Round
Central Arkansas74Stetson73
Kennesaw St.82Eastern Kentucky73
Florida Gulf Coast81North Alabama72
Lipscomb74North Florida65
Horizon League
1st Round
Detroit79Green Bay62
Robert Morris77Youngstown St.73
Oakland69IUPUI58
Illinois Chicago80Milwaukee69
Patriot League
1st Round
American69Holy Cross63
Bucknell82Lafayette81

February 23, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
ArmyBucknell3.0
St. John’sCreighton4.3
South CarolinaMississippi St.-1.7
VirginiaDuke-7.0
ProvidenceXavier1.3
TexasTCU8.9
VCUGeorge Mason7.4
Georgia St.UL Monroe9.0
Boston ULafayette9.8
Holy CrossColgate-13.3
East CarolinaSouth Florida6.5
LehighAmerican4.1
NavyLoyola (MD)8.1
LongwoodRadford9.9
North Carolina A&THigh Point1.6
Gardner-WebbUNC Asheville5.0
PresbyterianCharleston Southern10.7
HamptonCampbell-6.2
North Carolina St.Boston College6.0
Notre DameSyracuse3.4
ClemsonWake Forest-1.1
BinghamtonVermont-12.2
UMass LowellStony Brook2.4
NJITNew Hampshire-2.0
HartfordMaryland Baltimore Co.0.6
MaineAlbany-6.3
North AlabamaCentral Arkansas5.0
LibertyFlorida Gulf Coast8.4
Kennesaw St.Stetson7.2
Jacksonville St.Eastern Kentucky8.8
JacksonvilleNorth Florida6.2
BellarmineLipscomb7.8
Iowa St.West Virginia4.3
TroyUT Arlington4.4
Georgia SouthernLouisiana-0.5
ValparaisoDrake-5.0
Indiana St.Northern Iowa-5.7
FordhamLa Salle5.8
DaytonMassachusetts12.8
DuquesneDavidson-11.5
VMIWofford-0.1
UNC GreensboroWestern Carolina10.7
East Tennessee St.Chattanooga-4.7
MercerThe Citadel5.9
MichiganRutgers7.1
Little RockAppalachian St.-8.2
TulaneHouston-10.4
Southern IllinoisIllinois St.5.7
SMUTulsa11.5
Chicago St.Grand Canyon-15.9
South AlabamaTexas St.3.8
Arkansas St.Coastal Carolina1.1
Missouri St.Bradley5.2
Loyola (Chi.)Evansville22.0
SamfordFurman-7.0
AuburnMississippi15.7
Seton HallButler12.1
KentuckyLSU8.1
MinnesotaWisconsin-3.7
Central FloridaCincinnati2.2
Georgia TechVirginia Tech-6.7
Colorado St.Wyoming4.4
Washington St.Washington10.6

February 16, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
FairfieldManhattan7.0
ArmyColgate-7.3
USC UpstatePresbyterian1.9
XavierSt. John’s8.0
RadfordCampbell-3.4
RutgersIllinois-5.7
AlabamaMississippi St.7.0
LafayetteLoyola (MD)-1.1
Holy CrossBoston U-8.5
AmericanNavy-10.4
HamptonNorth Carolina A&T-3.2
Gardner-WebbWinthrop4.0
Charleston SouthernUNC Asheville-9.7
LouisvilleMiami (Fla.)-0.9
Notre DameBoston College11.1
New HampshireVermont-9.5
Maryland Baltimore Co.Stony Brook2.3
NJITUMass Lowell-3.5
HartfordMaine10.4
BinghamtonAlbany0.7
StetsonJacksonville-3.1
Florida Gulf CoastKennesaw St.3.9
St. BonaventureMassachusetts10.3
Saint Joseph’sGeorge Mason-0.3
Western CarolinaFurman-12.7
MercerEast Tennessee St.1.5
The CitadelWofford-5.4
LSUGeorgia19.0
DuquesneGeorge Washington3.1
Stephen F. AustinChicago St.19.1
Eastern KentuckyNorth Alabama6.1
Saint LouisLa Salle16.4
MarquetteGeorgetown15.5
TarletonUtah Valley-2.5
UT Rio Grande ValleySeattle-6.7
North CarolinaPittsburgh14.4
LipscombJacksonville St.-5.1
Central ArkansasBellarmine-7.1
ValparaisoLoyola (Chi.)-11.0
DrakeEvansville15.6
ConnecticutSeton Hall4.9
AuburnVanderbilt14.6
NorthwesternPurdue-5.3
Texas TechBaylor0.0
TempleSMU-4.2
UT MartinMorehead St.-9.8
New Mexico St.Dixie St.14.8
California BaptistGrand Canyon-4.7
Air ForceBoise St.-11.7
Fresno St.UNLV5.7
PepperdineGonzaga-29.4

February 9, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 9, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
CornellColumbia15.2
UNC AshevilleHampton10.5
FloridaGeorgia15.2
SMUHouston-7.4
RutgersOhio St.-4.1
Seton HallXavier2.6
HarvardYale-0.1
Boston UArmy8.2
Holy CrossLoyola (MD)-4.9
South FloridaCincinnati-8.7
ColgateLehigh14.1
BucknellAmerican3.0
WinthropRadford9.6
PresbyterianHigh Point2.0
North Carolina A&TCharleston Southern10.2
CampbellGardner-Webb0.8
NC St.Wake Forest-3.9
Miami (Fla.)Georgia Tech8.8
Notre DameLouisville7.5
New HampshireNJIT7.3
Stony BrookUMass Lowell3.2
AlbanyMaine13.6
Maryland Baltimore Co.Hartford6.6
VermontBinghamton16.2
North FloridaBellarmine-1.7
JacksonvilleEastern Kentucky3.5
Youngstown St.Oakland-4.2
Robert MorrisDetroit-2.9
MassachusettsGeorge Washington8.1
George MasonRichmond-0.7
DaytonDuquesne15.0
DavidsonSaint Joseph’s11.1
ChattanoogaWestern Carolina17.4
FairfieldQuinnipiac6.0
Delaware St.Maryland-Eastern Shore-7.4
StetsonJacksonville St.-7.2
Kennesaw St.Central Arkansas11.4
Florida Gulf CoastNorth Alabama6.7
Kansas St.Baylor-6.9
MemphisTulane9.8
Green BayWright St.-7.4
MilwaukeeNorthern Kentucky-2.4
Northern IowaSouthern Illinois5.8
Illinois St.Valparaiso3.3
DrakeMissouri St.-0.2
SamfordWofford-4.5
MississippiAlabama-5.4
OklahomaTexas Tech-3.7
Mississippi St.Tennessee-3.6
DePaulGeorgetown9.4
Florida St.Pittsburgh10.7
BradleyLoyola (Chi.)-3.5
NebraskaMinnesota-2.8
Oregon St.California-0.4
San Jose St.San Diego St.-15.9

February 4, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/4/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnPurdueBaylor
2KansasArizonaKentuckyUCLA
3DukeTexas TechHoustonVillanova
4Michigan St.WisconsinIllinoisProvidence
5XavierMarquetteOhio St.LSU
6TennesseeAlabamaTexasConnecticut
7Iowa St.USCIndianaIowa
8Saint Mary’sTCUArkansasSan Francisco
9Loyola (Chi.)Wake ForestMurray St.Wyoming
10Boise St.BYUSeton HallDavidson
11OregonColorado St.OklahomaSan Diego St.
12IonaNorth TexasCreightonMiami (Fla.)North CarolinaFlorida
13ToledoFurmanVermontSouth Dakota St.
14New Mexico St.WagnerTowsonLiberty
15OaklandWeber St.LongwoodCal St. Fullerton
16YaleColgateNorfolk St.TroyNew OrleansFlorida A&M

Best of the Rest

69Notre Dame
70Michigan
71Florida State
72Mississippi State
73SMU
74Belmont
75Drake
76Washington St.

January 31, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date1/31/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnArizonaBaylor
2KentuckyPurdueHoustonVillanova
3KansasUCLATexas TechDuke
4TennesseeLSUIllinoisMichigan St.
5ConnecticiutTexasOhio St.Wisconsin
6AlabamaXavierIowa St.Iowa
7Saint Mary’sUSCMarquetteIndiana
8ProvidenceLoyola (Chi.)Boise St.BYU
9North CarolinaOklahomaWake ForestMiami (Fla.)
10Colorado St.TCUArkansasWyoming
11MichiganOregonMurray St.Davidson
12ChattanoogaIonaFloridaSan FranciscoNotre DameSan Diego St.
13ToledoVermontSouth Dakota St.North Texas
14OaklandWagnerSeattleJacksonville St.
15Weber St.UNC-WilmingtonNavyYale
16HawaiiAppalachian St.LongwoodNorfolk St.New OrleansSouthern

Best of the Rest

69Creighton
70Seton Hall
71Mississippi St.
72West Virginia
73Belmont
74SMU
75Washington St.
76Virginia Tech
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