The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Tulsa 8.4 9.6 8.3

 

Friday September 21
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Central Florida Florida Atlantic 17.3 16.5 16.6
Illinois Penn St. -26.8 -23.9 -28.2
USC Washington St. 2.8 1.8 3.1

 

Saturday September 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Akron 18.5 15.2 17.5
Marshall North Carolina St. -16.0 -12.5 -14.4
Massachusetts Charlotte 10.2 9.7 11.0
Indiana Michigan St. -20.5 -18.8 -20.5
Maryland Minnesota -2.4 -3.4 -3.3
Ball St. Western Kentucky 1.6 0.6 -0.2
Purdue Boston College -10.2 -9.0 -11.1
Syracuse Connecticut 33.9 32.3 34.3
Miami (Fla.) Florida Int’l. 32.4 26.6 31.4
North Carolina Pittsburgh 0.8 0.0 0.6
Florida St. Northern Illinois 13.6 11.8 13.0
Bowling Green Miami (O) -3.6 -5.3 -4.1
Ohio St. Tulane 37.3 34.7 38.4
Georgia Tech Clemson -18.0 -15.8 -19.2
Cincinnati Ohio U 1.8 2.2 1.0
South Florida East Carolina 15.4 18.9 17.0
Wake Forest Notre Dame -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Toledo Nevada 9.0 10.8 9.1
Virginia Louisville 4.8 5.2 4.4
Georgia St. Western Michigan -11.4 -10.3 -11.3
Rutgers Buffalo -2.3 -5.5 -5.7
Oregon St. Arizona -10.1 -10.8 -11.6
Oregon Stanford -5.6 -3.0 -5.5
Tennessee Florida -10.9 -8.8 -12.0
Kentucky Mississippi St. -12.1 -10.6 -12.9
Michigan Nebraska 26.9 27.2 29.8
West Virginia Kansas St. 9.5 10.0 9.8
Ole Miss Kent St. 26.5 25.3 28.1
Southern Miss. Rice 14.9 15.1 16.7
Auburn Arkansas 24.7 26.1 28.6
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 14.7 14.3 16.3
SMU Navy -1.6 -5.2 -2.3
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 3.7 2.6 4.1
Arkansas St. UNLV 2.6 2.3 3.9
Texas TCU 0.2 -0.4 0.4
Oklahoma Army 29.5 27.8 30.2
LSU Louisiana Tech 23.0 20.4 22.9
Baylor Kansas 4.4 3.3 5.9
Vanderbilt South Carolina -7.1 -5.2 -6.3
Memphis South Alabama 26.8 27.0 27.3
Utah St. Air Force 13.2 14.6 15.3
UTEP New Mexico St. -3.9 -3.1 -4.5
UTSA Texas St. 11.1 12.4 12.5
UL-Monroe Troy -1.2 -2.9 -2.0
Old Dominion Virginia Tech -34.2 -29.7 -34.3
Liberty North Texas -17.1 -21.5 -17.8
Missouri Georgia -14.7 -12.5 -14.9
Alabama Texas A&M 28.9 28.0 30.4
Iowa Wisconsin 0.3 0.6 0.1
Washington Arizona St. 22.5 21.5 25.4
San Diego St. Eastern Michigan 10.9 10.1 11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Colorado St. Illinois St. 10.5
Central Michigan Maine 5.0
Duke UNC-Central 49.9
Appalachian St. Gardner-Webb 40.9
BYU McNeese St. 19.0
Houston Texas Southern 45.6
Hawaii Duquesne 27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2
2 Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4
3 Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1
5 Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7
6 Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1
7 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
8 Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0
9 Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9
10 Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8
11 Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7
12 Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4
13 Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6
14 Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3
15 Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3
16 Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3
17 Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0
18 Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9
19 Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7
20 L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4
21 Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5
23 Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4
24 Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3
25 N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3
26 Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1
27 Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0
28 S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7
29 Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7
30 West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5
31 Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8
32 Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6
33 Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3
34 Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4
35 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
36 Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8
37 Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4
38 Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4
39 California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3
40 Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3
41 Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2
42 U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0
43 Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6
45 Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5
46 Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2
48 Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7
49 Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5
50 Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2
51 Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1
52 Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0
54 BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6
55 N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5
56 Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0
59 Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0
60 Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4
61 San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7
62 Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6
63 Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4
64 Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2
65 N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0
66 Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9
67 South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4
68 Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8
69 Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7
70 Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2
71 Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3
72 Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1
73 Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1
74 Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8
75 Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6
76 Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2
79 Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0
80 Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5
81 Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4
82 U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1
83 Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0
84 Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6
86 Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3
87 Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7
88 Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2
89 Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9
90 Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6
91 Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8
92 Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7
93 Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1
94 Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0
95 SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8
96 U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7
98 Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8
99 U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7
100 Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7
101 Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6
102 Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2
103 New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6
104 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9
105 UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8
106 Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7
107 East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3
108 Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0
109 W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5
110 Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3
111 Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2
112 Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8
113 Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5
114 Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7
115 South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2
116 U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2
117 Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
119 Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7
120 Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5
121 Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5
122 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0
123 Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2
124 San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2
125 Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7
126 Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9
127 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4
128 Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6
129 Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4 0-0 3-0
Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3 0-0 1-2
Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7 0-0 3-0
East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-1 2-1
Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4 0-0 2-1
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 2-1
Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3 0-0 1-2
Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1 0-0 1-2
SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8 0-0 0-3
AAC Averages 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0 0-0 3-0
Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3 1-0 3-0
N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2 1-0 3-0
Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1 0-1 2-1
Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2 0-2 1-2
Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2 0-0 2-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3 0-0 2-1
Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7 0-0 3-0
Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8 0-1 1-2
Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0 1-0 2-1
Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0 0-0 2-1
N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9 0-0 3-0
T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5 0-0 2-1
West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5 0-0 2-0
Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6 0-0 2-1
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-1 0-2
Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7 0-0 2-1
Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8 0-0 2-1
Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4 0-0 2-1
Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9 0-0 2-1
Big 12 Averages 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1 1-0 3-0
Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0 0-0 2-1
Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9 0-0 3-0
Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8 0-0 1-1
Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4 0-0 2-1
Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8 0-0 3-0
Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0 0-0 2-1
Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3 0-0 3-0
Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4 1-0 1-2
Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5 0-0 3-0
Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2 0-1 0-3
Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1 0-0 0-2
Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6 0-0 2-1
Big Ten Averages 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7 0-0 2-1
Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7 0-0 1-2
Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2 1-0 2-1
W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5 0-0 0-3
Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1 0-2 0-3
Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9 1-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5 0-0 3-0
Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8 0-0 2-0
U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2 0-0 0-3
Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6 0-0 0-3
CUSA Averages 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6 x 3-0
BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6 x 2-1
Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2 x 2-1
Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3 x 1-3
Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4 x 0-4
Indep. Averages 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6 1-0 3-0
Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6 0-0 1-1
Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8 0-0 0-3
Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5 0-0 1-2
Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5 1-0 1-2
Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9 0-1 2-1
Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7 0-0 1-2
Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0 0-1 0-3
Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7 0-0 1-2
MAC Averages 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5 0-0 2-1
Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7 0-0 2-1
Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0 0-0 2-1
U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7 0-0 2-1
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 3-1
San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7 1-0 2-1
Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4 1-0 3-0
Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7 0-0 3-0
Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4 0-0 3-0
California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7 0-0 1-2
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0 0-1 1-2
Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6 0-0 2-1
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 3-0
Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6 0-0 1-2
U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4 1-0 3-0
Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-0 3-0
S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3 0-1 2-1
Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3 1-0 3-0
Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0 0-0 2-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8 0-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2 1-0 3-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1 0-0 3-0
Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7 0-1 2-1
L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4 1-0 3-0
Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1 0-0 2-1
Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1 0-1 2-1
Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2 0-0 1-2
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4 0-0 1-1
Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8 0-0 2-1
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0 0-0 2-1
Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7 0-0 2-1
UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8 0-0 2-1
South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2 1-0 1-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5 0-0 1-1
Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6 0-1 1-2
Sun Belt Averages 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
3 B12 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
4 BTEN 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
6 AAC 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
7 MWC 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
8 IND 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
11 SUN 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

This Week’s Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. South Florida
  2. Central Florida
  3. North Texas
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. [Northern Illinois]
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Marshall Western Michigan
Frisco AAC MAC [Utah] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Buffalo Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [BYU]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Army] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Wake Forest Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech California
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Boston College Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. South Carolina
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Washington
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Syracuse Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oregon North Texas
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Texas A&M
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Mississippi St.
PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Penn St. Georgia
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Clemson
Champ. Game Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Sweet 16 Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Washington State at USC  10:30 PM  on ESPN

USC has dropped consecutive road games, the most previous not being all that close.  With a true freshman quarterback and his top receiver also being a true freshman, can the Trojans score enough points against the Air Raid offense of the Pirate, Mike Leach.

Washington State is 3-0 but has yet to face strong competition, but if the Cougars can win this game, they become a contender for the Pac-12 North Division title.

Saturday
12:00 Noon

Georgia at Missouri  ESPN

Georgia should win this game by playing smashmouth football against a Missouri defense that just gave up a lot of points and yards against Purdue.  However, the Tigers may have overlooked an 0-2 team.  Still, Georgia looks invincible at least until they travel to the Bayou later in the season.

Minnesota at Maryland  BTN

All of a sudden, the Big Ten West looks open for more than one team.  Minnesota is a silent 3-0, and a win in College Park could find the Gophers ranked and in contention for the division flag.

Maryland’s win over Texas would have meant a lot more had they not gotten their Terrapin shell handed to them by lowly Temple.  The Terps must win this game to have any chance at becoming bowl eligible.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest ABC

Notre Dame is a very soft 3-0, and they have played all three games at home.  This will be the Irish’s first road game and first ACC opponent of the season.  They play at a Wake Forest team that made a valiant comeback that came up a bit short against Boston College.  Notre Dame must go 12-0 or 11-1 with a lot of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.

3:30 PM

Clemson at Georgia Tech ABC

We are not going to tell you that this game should be close, but…..

Clemson has not really fired on all cylinders yet.  It can be hard to play two separate offensive game plans every week, and the two quarterback system may prove to be a liability at some point.

The Tigers have been upset both of the last two years in conference play.  We don’t expect this to be one of those games, but we are anxious to see how CU uses their two QBs in conference play.

Georgia Tech’s multiple option offense should be forced into more passing situations against the top defensive front in the nation, but should Clemson’s offense not sustain a good number of drives, the Tigers may give up some points in the second half.

Kansas St. at West Virginia ESPN

West Virginia missed Saturday’s game, and so far teams that had games cancelled have not been all that sharp.  They face a Kansas State team that is going to need to pick up an upset or two to reach bowl eligibility this year.  The Mountaineers need to pick up a statement win in conference play to strike fear in the Oklahoma’s, Oklahoma State’s, and TCU’s.

Texas A&M at Alabama CBS

This week, the Crimson Tide have done something that has not been done in 17 years.  At the end of the 2001 season, National Champion Miami of Florida rated 9.6 points ahead of #2 Oregon.  Alabama is the first team since to be more than a touchdown ahead of the number two team in our ratings.

At this point, we’re not sure the Buffalo Bills could beat Alabama at New Era Field in the snow.  Alabama looked as good if not better than the 1995 Nebraska team that won the national championship with ease.

What makes this game so inviting is that Texas A&M played Clemson a couple weeks ago.  In that game, the Aggies looked like they belonged on the same field with a top 10 team.  If Alabama makes this another laugher, that will tell us all just how far ahead of another potential playoff team they have advanced.

TCU at Texas Fox

These teams don’t particularly care much for each other, and with TCU coming into this game with doubts, while the Longhorns are sky high, it should be quite interesting.  Prior last Saturday, TCU looked like a cinch to win this game according to the ratings.  After the ‘Horns clobbered USC and TCU blew up in a four-minute stretch against Ohio State, this game becomes a toss-up in the ratings.

What’s up for grabs in this game is a chance to become a key contender for the number two spot in the conference standings, which in the Big 12 will get you in the Conference Championship Game.

4 PM

South Carolina at Vanderbilt SEC

South Carolina is another team that had a game cancelled unexpectedly due to the weather.  They have not played since Georgia mutilated them in Columbia.  At this point, the Gamecocks are playing for a Citrus Bowl bid, as Georgia is not going to lose two conference games.

Vanderbilt did everything but outscore Notre Dame in South Bend, Saturday.  The Commodores outgained the Irish by 40 yards, but they suffered a loss of at least 11 points due not being able to hang onto the ball.  If the Commodores can come out with a chip on their shoulders, this can be a close game that could be decided in the final minutes.  However, as long time Commodore fans know, Vanderbilt has been known to come out flat and not show up the week after they experienced a moral victory.

7 PM

Florida at Tennessee ESPN

The winner of this game will earn a bowl bid this year.  That’s more than enough to make a game important, but this is the first chance for two new coaches to get the upper hand over their rival in this big rivalry game.

Tennessee’s defense has looked strong the last two weeks against an FCS team and the #130 FBS team.  How will they look against a better than average SEC offense?  Better yet, if you can only score 24 points at home against UTEP, how are you going to score enough to beat the Gators?

Mississippi St. at Kentucky ESPN2

One of these two teams will be 4-0 after this game, almost assuredly ranked in the top 25, and a serious contender for the Citrus or even Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.

The win over Florida in Gainesville is looking mighty good for the Wildcats, while Mississippi State looked a lot like Penn State in their last two games, which shouldn’t surprise many people that know that Coach Joe Moorhead was the offensive coordinator in Happy Valley.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. FS1

After getting pasted by Ole Miss in week one, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury was square in the middle of a hot seat in Lubbock.  The 63-point showing in a win over Houston has cooled the seat a bit, but the Red Raiders have an uphill climb to find four more wins and get bowl eligible.  Anything short of a bowl bid would most likely be the end of the Kingsbury era.

Oklahoma State looked like a playoff contender in their comfortable win over Boise State.  The Cowboys look like the top contender to their rival Sooners in the Big 12, and if they slow down the Red Raiders and hold them to 28 points or less, while winning by double digits, OSU could move on to a 9-0 start when they go to Norman in November.

 

7:30 PM

Michigan St. at Indiana BTN

Michigan State has been a major disappointment to start this season.  The Spartans had the most experience returning in FBS football this year, off a team that won 10 games last year.  A much closer than expected opening win over Utah State was followed by a loss at Arizona State.  After a week off, they now find themselves travelling into a potential ambush in Bloomington.

Indiana is 3-0 for the first time since 2015 and just the second time in the last nine seasons.  The Hoosiers look like a potential bowl eligible squad, and they basically need to pull off one conference upset to get to 3-6 in the league and guarantee six wins.  Their rebuilt defense is looking strong enough to keep them in this game, and if MSU hasn’t snapped out of their funk, the Hoosiers could surprise and move to 4-0.  The last three times IU began 4-0, they made it to a bowl game.

8:00 PM

Stanford at Oregon ABC

This may be the top game of the weekend.  The winner of this game will be the co-contender with Washington and possibly Washington State for the Pac-12 North flag.  Neither team has been exceptionally strong so far, and Stanford’s win over USC lost a lot of its oomph when USC was clobbered by Texas.  The key to this game may be the health of Bryce Love.  Love did not play against UC-Davis after rushing for 136 yards against USC.  Last year, he torched Oregon with 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon’s defense against the run has looked solid this year, while the Ducks’ passing game behind Justin Herbert has been spectacular at times.  The Ducks have had this game circled on their schedule since Spring practice.  The Cardinal have embarrassed the Ducks with consecutive slaughters the last two seasons, and the Ducks will be inspired to shut down Stanford’s running game and force the Cardinal out of their game plan.

8:30 PM

Wisconsin at Iowa Fox

If Wisconsin continues to look lifeless on offense for 20 minutes per game, the Badgers are not going to win the Big Ten West.  They are in a precarious position having to come to Iowa City for a prime time game, where the Hawkeyes enjoy an incredible home field advantage.

Iowa rarely puts up flashy offensive yardage numbers.  But, when you limit opponents to 42 rushing yards and 209 total yards per game, you can win by scoring 24 points and gaining 380 total yards.  They gang tackle and rarely let an opponent get many yards after contact.

10:30 PM

Arizona St. at Washington ESPN

The late game on ESPN is usually exciting, because it involves two teams with wide open offenses from the West Coast.  Also, frequently, these teams cannot play a lot of defense.  This mold was broken Saturday night, when in Washington’s win over Utah in Salt Lake City, the Huskies looked more like their 1959 and 1960 teams that went 10-1.  UW gained just 330 yards and gave up 261 to the Utes.

Arizona State did nothing on the ground against San Diego State, and if the Sun Devils don’t correct this Saturday night, they will get pasted in Seattle.  The ASU passing game cannot pass for 300 yards against the Huskies’ secondary, so if UW can limit ASU’s running game, this could be another one of those 1960-style defensive victories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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September 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 3

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wake Forest Boston College -6.6 -5.7 -9.3

 

Friday September 14
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Memphis Georgia St. 29.4 28.6 29.4

 

Saturday September 15
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tennessee UTEP 31.7 28.9 31.8
Indiana Ball St. 16.8 13.2 16.6
Maryland Temple 15.9 14.3 14.8
Florida Int’l. Massachusetts -2.0 0.7 -2.7
Toledo Miami (Fla.) -17.1 -13.1 -16.6
Army Hawaii 20.9 19.0 22.6
Penn St. Kent St. 42.6 38.1 43.4
North Carolina Central Florida -9.3 -10.2 -10.2
Charlotte Old Dominion -4.0 -6.0 -3.9
Syracuse Florida St. 0.5 -0.4 -0.3
Iowa St. Oklahoma -9.6 -10.3 -10.9
Nebraska Troy 13.5 10.4 9.3
Kansas Rutgers 3.3 3.1 3.2
Virginia Tech East Carolina 33.5 33.8 34.3
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech -6.6 -5.9 -7.0
Notre Dame Vanderbilt 22.1 17.4 20.3
Virginia Ohio U 9.9 8.8 7.1
Michigan SMU 35.4 35.3 37.8
Appalachian St. Southern Miss. 14.8 13.1 15.6
Oklahoma St. Boise St. 0.4 -1.0 -0.5
Wisconsin BYU 25.2 21.6 24.3
North Carolina St. West Virginia 4.6 4.9 4.8
Minnesota Miami (O) 20.5 17.7 19.3
Auburn LSU 13.4 11.8 15.3
Illinois South Florida -1.7 -5.1 -3.8
Northern Illinois Central Michigan 15.6 13.4 15.4
Clemson Georgia Southern 48.6 44.0 48.9
New Mexico St. New Mexico -8.7 -8.0 -8.3
UAB Tulane -5.5 -3.2 -4.9
Baylor Duke -9.8 -9.6 -9.8
Florida Colorado St. 28.6 25.0 28.6
Texas Tech Houston 3.6 0.6 1.0
Kansas St. UTSA 29.8 23.4 28.0
Arkansas North Texas 12.0 6.3 9.5
Oregon San Jose St. 41.4 40.7 43.9
Buffalo Eastern Michigan 5.3 6.4 5.9
Nevada Oregon St. 6.5 9.3 8.2
Ole Miss Alabama -23.4 -21.5 -24.4
Tulsa Arkansas St. 7.6 4.6 6.5
South Alabama Texas St. 13.7 12.6 15.4
Georgia Middle Tennessee 45.6 39.6 46.0
South Carolina Marshall 20.5 16.5 18.7
Purdue Missouri -7.4 -7.5 -10.0
Northwestern Akron 25.6 21.8 25.4
Mississippi St. Louisiana 46.8 41.6 46.4
Texas A&M UL-Monroe 28.8 27.9 28.3
Louisville Western Kentucky 23.3 19.7 21.5
Texas USC -0.4 -0.2 -0.8
TCU Ohio St. -11.5 -9.4 -13.1
Utah Washington -12.5 -11.6 -14.1
UCLA Fresno St. -6.2 -4.8 -8.3
San Diego St. Arizona St. -7.1 -5.0 -5.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Utah St. Tennessee Tech 38.6
Kentucky Murray St. 36.1
Connecticut Rhode Island 10.2
Stanford UC-Davis 36.9
Navy Lehigh 29.8
Wyoming Wofford 17.5
Bowling Green Eastern Kentucky 13.5
Colorado New Hampshire 30.3
California Idaho St. 32.1
Liberty Norfolk St. 18.5
Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman 38.5
Coastal Carolina Campbell 17.7
Cincinnati Alabama A&M 36.0
Western Michigan Delaware St. 39.7
Iowa Northern Iowa 32.2
Washington St. Eastern Wash. 23.7
UNLV Prairie-View 21.2
Arizona Southern Utah 24.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.8 131.7 135.7 133.7
2 Georgia 131.9 127.6 133.3 130.9
3 Clemson 130.8 127.7 131.5 130.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 125.9 129.3 128.0
5 Washington 126.7 124.2 129.1 126.6
6 Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6
7 Mississippi St. 123.8 120.8 124.4 123.0
8 Michigan 123.1 122.0 124.0 123.0
9 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
10 Michigan St. 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.5
11 Penn St. 121.2 118.0 121.5 120.2
12 Wisconsin 121.2 118.3 120.9 120.1
13 Stanford 120.5 118.1 121.0 119.9
14 Notre Dame 120.7 116.9 119.1 118.9
15 Boston College 118.2 115.2 118.5 117.3
16 Miami 117.3 115.3 116.9 116.5
17 Boise St. 116.4 115.8 117.2 116.5
18 Virginia Tech 116.2 115.7 116.1 116.0
19 Missouri 115.2 113.7 116.8 115.2
20 Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8
21 Duke 115.2 112.7 114.7 114.2
22 T C U 114.2 113.6 113.2 113.6
23 Iowa 114.2 111.8 113.6 113.2
24 Oklahoma St. 113.8 111.8 113.7 113.1
25 L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1
26 N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.7 112.9 113.0
27 Central Florida 112.7 112.5 112.8 112.7
28 Texas A&M 113.0 111.7 113.2 112.6
29 Northwestern 112.9 110.8 112.9 112.2
30 S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.4 111.4
31 U S C 112.1 110.3 111.5 111.3
32 West Virginia 111.7 110.9 111.1 111.2
33 Utah 111.2 109.5 112.0 110.9
34 Georgia Tech 110.6 109.6 110.2 110.2
35 Florida 110.2 108.0 110.3 109.5
36 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
37 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
38 Florida St. 109.0 108.3 108.6 108.6
39 Kentucky 108.7 107.5 108.4 108.2
40 Washington St. 108.8 107.9 107.7 108.1
41 Arizona St. 108.8 107.3 108.1 108.1
42 Texas 108.7 107.1 107.7 107.8
43 Ole Miss 107.5 107.2 108.3 107.6
44 Fresno St. 107.9 106.3 107.4 107.2
45 Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1
46 Minnesota 106.6 105.8 106.3 106.2
47 Syracuse 106.5 104.9 105.3 105.6
48 Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.3 105.3
49 Maryland 105.9 104.4 105.1 105.1
50 Kansas St. 106.0 104.3 105.0 105.1
51 Purdue 104.8 103.1 103.7 103.9
52 Houston 103.1 104.3 103.8 103.7
53 Utah St. 102.5 104.0 104.1 103.5
54 Arkansas 104.9 102.0 103.2 103.4
55 Louisville 102.9 102.7 102.3 102.6
56 Texas Tech 103.7 101.8 101.9 102.5
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Vanderbilt 101.5 102.5 101.8 102.0
59 Baylor 102.4 100.2 101.9 101.5
60 Virginia 101.5 101.8 99.9 101.1
61 Pittsburgh 101.0 100.7 100.2 100.7
62 Arizona 101.0 99.3 100.9 100.4
63 N. Carolina 100.4 99.3 99.6 99.8
64 BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.4
66 South Florida 98.0 101.0 98.9 99.3
67 San Diego St. 98.7 99.3 99.9 99.3
68 Nebraska 100.1 98.4 97.5 98.6
69 Toledo 97.2 99.3 97.3 97.9
70 U C L A 98.8 98.5 96.2 97.8
71 Indiana 98.0 97.1 97.5 97.5
72 Wyoming 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.3
73 N. Texas 95.9 98.8 96.7 97.1
74 Tennessee 97.2 97.5 96.5 97.1
75 Army 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.5
76 Buffalo 95.3 97.6 96.5 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 96.7 96.1 96.3
79 Marshall 94.4 97.3 95.6 95.8
80 Tulane 95.6 95.7 95.2 95.5
81 Ohio U 94.6 96.0 95.9 95.5
82 Appalachian St. 94.2 95.7 95.5 95.1
83 Kansas 96.1 95.0 94.1 95.1
84 Rutgers 95.8 94.9 93.9 94.9
85 Louisiana Tech 93.4 95.9 94.6 94.6
86 Eastern Michigan 92.4 93.7 93.1 93.1
87 Air Force 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9
88 Illinois 93.3 92.9 92.1 92.8
89 Tulsa 93.0 91.6 93.6 92.7
90 Temple 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.6
91 Cincinnati 92.0 93.6 92.0 92.5
92 Nevada 91.3 91.4 91.3 91.3
93 Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9
94 Western Michigan 89.9 91.5 90.7 90.7
95 Troy 89.5 91.0 91.1 90.5
96 U N L V 89.5 91.1 90.0 90.2
97 Middle Tennessee 89.3 91.0 90.2 90.2
98 Miami (O) 89.1 91.1 90.0 90.1
99 SMU 90.7 89.7 89.2 89.9
100 Massachusetts 88.2 90.0 89.6 89.3
101 Arkansas St. 87.9 89.5 89.6 89.0
102 U A B 87.6 90.0 87.8 88.5
103 UL-Monroe 87.1 86.7 87.9 87.3
104 New Mexico 86.4 88.1 86.3 86.9
105 Oregon St. 87.8 85.2 86.1 86.4
106 Georgia Southern 85.3 86.7 85.6 85.9
107 East Carolina 85.7 84.9 84.8 85.1
108 Colo. State 84.6 85.9 84.7 85.1
109 Florida Int’l. 83.2 87.7 83.8 84.9
110 Central Michigan 83.5 86.3 83.7 84.5
111 Ball St. 83.2 85.9 82.9 84.0
112 Bowling Green 83.7 83.7 83.9 83.8
113 Southern Miss. 82.3 85.5 82.8 83.6
114 W. Kentucky 81.6 85.0 82.7 83.1
115 Old Dominion 81.0 85.2 81.0 82.4
116 South Alabama 81.3 83.4 82.3 82.3
117 Kent St. 81.6 82.9 81.0 81.8
118 U T S A 79.2 83.9 80.0 81.1
119 Louisiana 79.5 81.7 80.5 80.6
120 Liberty 81.0 79.3 81.2 80.5
121 Hawaii 79.9 82.2 78.4 80.2
122 Coastal Carolina 78.5 81.5 79.1 79.7
123 Georgia St. 77.9 80.7 78.9 79.2
124 Connecticut 78.5 78.7 77.2 78.1
125 N. Mexico St. 75.7 78.1 76.0 76.6
126 San Jose St. 76.1 76.9 74.3 75.8
127 Charlotte 74.5 76.8 74.6 75.3
128 Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.6 67.8 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 112.7 112.5 112.8 112.7 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.0 101.0 98.9 99.3 0-0 2-0
Temple 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.6 0-0 0-2
Cincinnati 92.0 93.6 92.0 92.5 0-0 2-0
East Carolina 85.7 84.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.5 78.7 77.2 78.1 0-1 0-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.3 105.3 0-1 1-1
Houston 103.1 104.3 103.8 103.7 0-0 2-0
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 1-1
Tulane 95.6 95.7 95.2 95.5 0-0 1-1
Tulsa 93.0 91.6 93.6 92.7 0-0 1-1
SMU 90.7 89.7 89.2 89.9 0-0 0-2
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.8 127.7 131.5 130.0 0-0 2-0
Boston College 118.2 115.2 118.5 117.3 0-0 2-0
N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.7 112.9 113.0 0-0 2-0
Florida St. 109.0 108.3 108.6 108.6 0-1 1-1
Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 106.5 104.9 105.3 105.6 0-0 2-0
Louisville 102.9 102.7 102.3 102.6 0-0 1-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.3 115.3 116.9 116.5 0-0 1-1
Virginia Tech 116.2 115.7 116.1 116.0 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.2 112.7 114.7 114.2 0-0 2-0
Georgia Tech 110.6 109.6 110.2 110.2 0-0 1-1
Virginia 101.5 101.8 99.9 101.1 0-0 1-1
Pittsburgh 101.0 100.7 100.2 100.7 0-0 1-1
N. Carolina 100.4 99.3 99.6 99.8 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.8 109.5 110.2 110.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 0-0 2-0
T C U 114.2 113.6 113.2 113.6 0-0 2-0
Oklahoma St. 113.8 111.8 113.7 113.1 0-0 2-0
West Virginia 111.7 110.9 111.1 111.2 0-0 2-0
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-0 0-1
Texas 108.7 107.1 107.7 107.8 0-0 1-1
Kansas St. 106.0 104.3 105.0 105.1 0-0 1-1
Texas Tech 103.7 101.8 101.9 102.5 0-0 1-1
Baylor 102.4 100.2 101.9 101.5 0-0 2-0
Kansas 96.1 95.0 94.1 95.1 0-0 1-1
Big 12 Averages 108.9 107.4 108.1 108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 125.9 129.3 128.0 1-0 2-0
Michigan 123.1 122.0 124.0 123.0 0-0 1-1
Michigan St. 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.5 0-0 1-1
Penn St. 121.2 118.0 121.5 120.2 0-0 2-0
Maryland 105.9 104.4 105.1 105.1 0-0 2-0
Indiana 98.0 97.1 97.5 97.5 0-0 2-0
Rutgers 95.8 94.9 93.9 94.9 0-1 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 121.2 118.3 120.9 120.1 0-0 2-0
Iowa 114.2 111.8 113.6 113.2 0-0 2-0
Northwestern 112.9 110.8 112.9 112.2 1-0 1-1
Minnesota 106.6 105.8 106.3 106.2 0-0 2-0
Purdue 104.8 103.1 103.7 103.9 0-1 0-2
Nebraska 100.1 98.4 97.5 98.6 0-0 0-1
Illinois 93.3 92.9 92.1 92.8 0-0 2-0
Big Ten Averages 110.6 108.8 110.0 109.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.4 0-0 1-1
Marshall 94.4 97.3 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.3 91.0 90.2 90.2 0-0 1-1
Florida Int’l. 83.2 87.7 83.8 84.9 1-0 1-1
W. Kentucky 81.6 85.0 82.7 83.1 0-0 0-2
Old Dominion 81.0 85.2 81.0 82.4 0-1 0-2
Charlotte 74.5 76.8 74.6 75.3 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 95.9 98.8 96.7 97.1 0-0 2-0
Louisiana Tech 93.4 95.9 94.6 94.6 0-0 2-0
U A B 87.6 90.0 87.8 88.5 0-0 1-1
Southern Miss. 82.3 85.5 82.8 83.6 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.2 83.9 80.0 81.1 0-0 0-2
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.5 71.6 67.8 69.3 0-0 0-2
CUSA Averages 84.3 87.3 84.8 85.4
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 120.7 116.9 119.1 118.9 x 2-0
BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4 x 1-1
Army 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.5 x 1-1
Massachusetts 88.2 90.0 89.6 89.3 x 1-2
Liberty 81.0 79.3 81.2 80.5 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 75.7 78.1 76.0 76.6 x 0-3
Ind. Averages 93.5 93.5 93.7 93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.3 97.6 96.5 96.5 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 94.6 96.0 95.9 95.5 0-0 1-0
Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9 0-0 1-0
Miami (O) 89.1 91.1 90.0 90.1 0-0 0-2
Bowling Green 83.7 83.7 83.9 83.8 0-0 0-2
Kent St. 81.6 82.9 81.0 81.8 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.2 99.3 97.3 97.9 0-0 1-0
Northern Illinois 96.1 96.7 96.1 96.3 0-0 0-2
Eastern Michigan 92.4 93.7 93.1 93.1 0-0 2-0
Western Michigan 89.9 91.5 90.7 90.7 0-0 0-2
Central Michigan 83.5 86.3 83.7 84.5 0-0 0-2
Ball St. 83.2 85.9 82.9 84.0 0-0 1-1
MAC Averages 89.8 91.4 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 116.4 115.8 117.2 116.5 0-0 2-0
Utah St. 102.5 104.0 104.1 103.5 0-0 1-1
Wyoming 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.3 0-0 1-2
Air Force 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.4 88.1 86.3 86.9 0-0 1-1
Colo. State 84.6 85.9 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 107.9 106.3 107.4 107.2 0-0 1-1
San Diego St. 98.7 99.3 99.9 99.3 0-0 1-1
Nevada 91.3 91.4 91.3 91.3 0-0 1-1
U N L V 89.5 91.1 90.0 90.2 0-0 1-1
Hawaii 79.9 82.2 78.4 80.2 1-0 3-0
San Jose St. 76.1 76.9 74.3 75.8 0-0 0-2
MWC Averages 93.6 94.3 93.6 93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.7 124.2 129.1 126.6 0-0 1-1
Stanford 120.5 118.1 121.0 119.9 1-0 2-0
Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8 0-0 2-0
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 2-0
Washington St. 108.8 107.9 107.7 108.1 0-0 2-0
Oregon St. 87.8 85.2 86.1 86.4 0-0 1-1
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.1 110.3 111.5 111.3 0-1 1-1
Utah 111.2 109.5 112.0 110.9 0-0 2-0
Arizona St. 108.8 107.3 108.1 108.1 0-0 2-0
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 2-0
Arizona 101.0 99.3 100.9 100.4 0-0 0-2
U C L A 98.8 98.5 96.2 97.8 0-0 0-2
Pac-12 Averages 108.4 107.0 108.3 107.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 127.6 133.3 130.9 1-0 2-0
Missouri 115.2 113.7 116.8 115.2 0-0 2-0
S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.4 111.4 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.2 108.0 110.3 109.5 0-1 1-1
Kentucky 108.7 107.5 108.4 108.2 1-0 2-0
Vanderbilt 101.5 102.5 101.8 102.0 0-0 2-0
Tennessee 97.2 97.5 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 133.8 131.7 135.7 133.7 0-0 2-0
Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6 0-0 2-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 120.8 124.4 123.0 0-0 2-0
L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1 0-0 2-0
Texas A&M 113.0 111.7 113.2 112.6 0-0 1-1
Ole Miss 107.5 107.2 108.3 107.6 0-0 2-0
Arkansas 104.9 102.0 103.2 103.4 0-0 1-1
SEC Averages 114.0 112.5 114.5 113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.2 95.7 95.5 95.1 0-0 1-1
Troy 89.5 91.0 91.1 90.5 0-0 1-1
Georgia Southern 85.3 86.7 85.6 85.9 0-0 2-0
Coastal Carolina 78.5 81.5 79.1 79.7 0-0 1-1
Georgia St. 77.9 80.7 78.9 79.2 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.9 89.5 89.6 89.0 0-0 1-1
UL-Monroe 87.1 86.7 87.9 87.3 0-0 2-0
South Alabama 81.3 83.4 82.3 82.3 0-0 0-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.7 80.5 80.6 0-0 1-0
Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5 0-0 1-1
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.1 84.0 84.1

 

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.0 112.5 114.5 113.7
2 ACC 110.8 109.5 110.2 110.2
3 BTEN 110.6 108.8 110.0 109.8
4 B12 108.9 107.4 108.1 108.1
5 P-12 108.4 107.0 108.3 107.9
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
7 MWC 93.6 94.3 93.6 93.8
8 IND 93.5 93.5 93.7 93.5
9 MAC 89.8 91.4 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 84.3 87.3 84.8 85.4
11 SUN 83.2 85.1 84.0 84.1

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Toledo Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Tulsa Western Michigan
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan UNLV
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Virginia]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [California]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Louisiana
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Int’l. Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Army] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Georgia Tech [UAB]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC [Utah] Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC North Carolina St. Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Washington
Belk ACC SEC Boston College South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Virginia Tech
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Syracuse
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC [Georgia Southern] Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan USC
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Boise St. TCU
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Stanford
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Auburn
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Ohio St.
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
Championship  Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 6-10, 2018

With the NFL kicking off Thursday night, this is the first weekend where the handicappers have both college and pro regular season football to consider when making their selections.

It has been a custom at the PiRate Ratings that we make the maximum number of picks on this week of the season.  We will be going with 11 selections this week, using a combination of straight wagers, money line parlays, and 10-point teasers.

As usual, please be advised that every selection made on this website is absolutely free to you, and you should consider the value of the information to struggle to meet the monetary cost you pay to receive it.  In other words, unless you are a sharp in the Caribbean that knows how to use our picks and make a fortune, please do not wager your hard-earned money on games using this site as your sole reference.  The PiRates do this strictly for mathematical fun.

Here are this week’s PiRate Picks.

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Michigan St. Arizona St. 5 1/2 Mich. St.
BYU California 3 1/2 California
Indiana Virginia 7 Virginia
Georgia Tech South Florida 3 Ga. Tech
Stanford USC 4 Stanford
Money Line Parlay @+238
Winner Loser
North Carolina East Carolina
Maryland Bowling Green
Florida Kentucky
Stanford USC
Michigan St. Arizona St.
Money Line Parlay @ +182
Winner Loser
Purdue Eastern Michigan
Georgia South Carolina
Appalachian St. Charlotte
UAB Coastal Carolina
Penn St. Pittsburgh
Money Line Parlay @+237
Winner Loser
Pittsburgh Cleveland
Baltimore Buffalo
New Orleans Tampa Bay
New England Houston
Money Line Game @+140
Winner Loser
Cincinnati Indianapolis
10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Coastal Carolina UAB 1 UAB
Indiana Virginia 17 Virginia
Purdue Eastern Mich. 5 1/2 Purdue
10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Georgia South Carolina Pk Georgia
USC Stanford 6 Stanford
Clemson Texas A&M 2 Clemson

The PiRates are adding some buckaroos to the ship this season for their expertise in picking football games. In addition to our own picks, each of the buckaroos and buckarettes will supply his or her own picks to us each week. If they prove their worth, we’ll run their picks up the flagpole every week, but if they lose too much, they’ll walk the plank.

To start off, each has been granted an unlimited bank account to wager an odd number of games of 3, 5, 7, or 9 selections each week isolated to just college football. All pretend wagers will be $100 a game, so it will be easy to calculate. If they win, they earn another $100 to their imaginary account. If they lose, then $110 will be deducted.

Our guest players have all chosen their user names for this event, so here is a brief introduction on each player–in alphabetical order.

1. Buckeye Michelle lives in Florida, after growing up in the Cleveland area. Don’t let her gender fool you; she knows football. She can recognize coverage zones by the defense, but most of all, she sees what most of us don’t see–value. If you ever need a personal shopper, Michie is the one for you. She’ll find you a lot of bargains.

2. Cal Gal Tiffy lives on the West Coast, and yes, she is another member of the fairer sex. A tomboy who played tackle football with the boys growing up, she matured into a model and now is a makeup artist that never misses a Stanford home game.

3. Dean 615 is a former college football star and played in the NFL for a decade. Dean knows how to evaluate talent and can watch a game and see all 22 players and know who missed his assignment. Dean has a room full of trophies in his home.

4. Friday Dog 13 is a rabid football fan and friend of the Captains for 40+ years. Friday Dog has seen more than 100 football games in person, many at Vanderbilt’s Dudley Field and many at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio. Friday Dog is an expert in hometown football.

5. Stewed Meat is a professional sharp. Stewed has cashed some rather expensive tickets in Las Vegas and has been banned in some places or been forced to play no more than a certain amount on college games. Stewed is the Captain’s source for receiving the “Outlaw” line as well as how quickly the lines flattened and which games saw sharps playing both sides for the middle. Stewed has placed a grand on one parlay and won $10K when the parlay came in. Stewed has also watched a botched extra point kill a $25K wager. Stewed plays money line parlays almost exclusively and has admitted that playing individual games against the spread is not Stewed’s expertise.
Note–The odds chosen were the best available at Oddshark.com at the time of the submission to the Captain.

Here are the picks this week for each player.
1. Buckeye Michelle
Rice +17 1/2 vs. Hawaii
Louisiana-Monroe + 6 1/2 vs. Southern Miss.
Colorado St. +13 1/2 vs. Arkansas
Kentucky +14 1/2 vs. Florida
Tulsa +23 vs. Texas

2. Cal Gal Tiffy
Stanford -4 vs. USC
California +3 1/2 vs. BYU
Iowa -3 1/3 vs. Iowa St.
Notre Dame -34 vs. Ball St.
Army -8 1/2 vs. Liberty
Central Michigan -4 vs. Kansas
Georgia -10 vs. South Carolina

3. Dean 73
Notre Dame -34 vs. Ball St.
Appalachian St. -13 1/2 vs. Charlotte
UAB -9 vs. Coastal Carolina

4. Friday Dog 13
Vanderbilt -8 1/2 vs. Nevada
Ohio St. -34 1/2 vs. Rutgers
Mississippi St. -9 1/2 vs. Kansas St.

5. Stewed Meat
Western Michigan +28 vs. Michigan
Stanford -4 vs. USC
Rutgers +35 1/2 vs. Ohio St.
Iowa -3 1/2 vs. Iowa St.
Wyoming +18 vs. Missouri

 

September 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.5 131.2 135.4 133.4
2 Clemson 131.9 128.6 132.8 131.1
3 Georgia 131.1 126.5 132.6 130.0
4 Washington 126.9 124.4 129.3 126.8
5 Ohio St. 126.2 123.5 126.8 125.5
6 Michigan St. 124.7 122.4 124.8 124.0
7 Notre Dame 125.7 121.9 124.1 123.9
8 Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6
9 Oklahoma 122.5 121.1 123.1 122.2
10 Mississippi St. 122.8 119.5 123.0 121.8
11 Michigan 121.6 120.2 122.3 121.3
12 Wisconsin 121.7 118.6 121.7 120.7
13 Stanford 120.1 117.5 120.7 119.4
14 Boston College 118.1 115.1 118.4 117.2
15 Miami 117.1 115.1 116.7 116.3
16 Virginia Tech 116.1 115.6 116.0 115.9
17 Penn St. 116.7 113.5 117.0 115.7
18 Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8
19 Missouri 114.6 112.9 116.2 114.5
20 Northwestern 114.8 112.8 115.2 114.3
21 Boise St. 113.3 112.8 114.3 113.5
22 N. Carolina St. 113.6 112.8 113.4 113.3
23 L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1
24 Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0
25 Florida 113.4 111.1 113.8 112.7
26 Iowa 113.7 111.2 112.9 112.6
27 T C U 112.9 112.2 111.7 112.2
28 Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2
29 Duke 113.3 110.7 112.4 112.2
30 Georgia Tech 112.5 111.2 112.1 112.0
31 S. Carolina 112.3 111.4 111.6 111.8
32 U S C 112.3 110.7 111.6 111.5
33 Utah 111.5 109.5 112.4 111.2
34 West Virginia 111.6 110.8 111.0 111.1
35 Texas A&M 111.2 110.1 111.2 110.8
36 Iowa State 110.5 108.6 110.0 109.7
37 Florida St. 109.7 109.0 109.3 109.3
38 Texas 109.8 108.3 108.9 109.0
39 California 110.0 107.2 109.6 108.9
40 Ole Miss 107.8 107.5 108.6 107.9
41 Washington St. 108.6 107.7 107.5 107.9
42 Fresno St. 108.5 106.9 108.2 107.9
43 Arkansas 109.4 106.5 107.7 107.9
44 Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1
45 Purdue 107.9 106.1 106.8 106.9
46 Memphis 105.2 107.3 106.7 106.4
47 Kansas St. 106.8 105.4 106.2 106.1
48 Arizona St. 106.7 105.2 105.6 105.8
49 Minnesota 106.0 105.2 105.5 105.6
50 Kentucky 106.0 104.9 105.4 105.4
51 Arizona 106.1 104.1 106.0 105.4
52 Syracuse 106.3 104.7 105.1 105.4
53 Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2
54 N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.7 104.8
55 Maryland 104.6 102.8 103.4 103.6
56 Louisville 103.6 103.4 103.0 103.3
57 Texas Tech 103.2 101.3 101.4 102.0
58 Baylor 102.7 100.4 102.1 101.7
59 Colorado 100.6 102.3 102.0 101.6
60 Virginia 101.9 102.4 100.3 101.5
61 Utah St. 100.3 101.5 101.9 101.2
62 Houston 99.1 100.6 99.8 99.8
63 Florida Atlantic 99.3 99.9 100.3 99.8
64 Vanderbilt 99.1 100.1 99.2 99.5
65 San Diego St. 98.9 99.5 100.1 99.5
66 BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4
67 Nebraska 100.3 98.5 97.6 98.8
68 U C L A 98.9 98.7 96.3 97.9
69 Wyoming 98.0 98.1 97.8 97.9
70 Toledo 97.0 99.1 97.1 97.7
71 South Florida 95.8 99.1 96.7 97.2
72 Rutgers 98.1 97.1 96.2 97.1
73 Indiana 97.6 96.5 97.1 97.1
74 N. Texas 95.8 98.7 96.6 97.0
75 Tennessee 96.9 97.2 96.2 96.8
76 Marshall 94.7 97.6 95.9 96.1
77 Northern Illinois 95.8 96.7 95.7 96.1
78 Army 95.6 96.1 95.5 95.8
79 Buffalo 94.5 96.9 95.6 95.7
80 Tulane 95.5 95.6 95.1 95.4
81 Ohio U 94.4 95.8 95.7 95.3
82 Navy 94.5 97.3 93.8 95.2
83 Louisiana Tech 93.3 95.8 94.5 94.5
84 Nevada 93.7 93.8 93.9 93.8
85 Temple 93.3 93.3 93.7 93.4
86 U A B 91.8 94.3 92.2 92.8
87 Air Force 92.7 92.7 91.9 92.4
88 Western Michigan 91.4 93.3 92.4 92.4
89 Illinois 92.9 92.5 91.7 92.4
90 Miami (O) 91.1 93.4 92.5 92.3
91 Appalachian St. 91.5 92.8 92.8 92.3
92 Kansas 93.5 91.9 91.2 92.2
93 Massachusetts 90.5 92.5 92.3 91.8
94 Tulsa 91.9 90.4 92.4 91.6
95 SMU 92.0 91.1 90.7 91.3
96 Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9
97 Eastern Michigan 89.6 91.0 90.3 90.3
98 Troy 89.2 90.7 90.8 90.2
99 Middle Tennessee 89.1 90.8 90.0 90.0
100 U N L V 89.3 90.8 89.8 90.0
101 Cincinnati 89.7 91.0 89.2 89.9
102 Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2
103 UL-Monroe 87.1 86.5 87.9 87.2
104 Central Michigan 85.6 88.9 86.1 86.9
105 New Mexico 85.9 87.8 85.5 86.4
106 Oregon St. 87.4 84.8 85.7 86.0
107 Bowling Green 85.0 85.3 85.6 85.3
108 Florida Int’l. 82.2 86.6 82.8 83.9
109 W. Kentucky 82.3 85.7 83.4 83.8
110 Southern Miss. 82.3 85.7 82.8 83.6
111 Old Dominion 82.0 86.3 82.0 83.5
112 South Alabama 81.9 84.4 83.3 83.2
113 Georgia Southern 82.7 83.9 82.6 83.1
114 East Carolina 82.3 81.4 81.2 81.6
115 Connecticut 81.9 82.0 80.4 81.4
116 Liberty 81.7 79.9 82.2 81.3
117 Colo. State 80.6 81.9 80.7 81.1
118 Kent St. 80.8 82.1 80.2 81.0
119 U T S A 78.9 83.7 79.8 80.8
120 Louisiana 79.3 81.5 80.3 80.4
121 Hawaii 79.8 82.0 78.3 80.0
122 N. Mexico St. 78.9 81.6 79.2 79.9
123 Ball St. 78.2 80.9 77.9 79.0
124 Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9
125 Charlotte 76.7 79.2 76.8 77.6
126 San Jose St. 76.3 77.1 74.5 76.0
127 Coastal Carolina 73.8 76.7 74.2 74.9
128 Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5
129 Rice 70.5 73.6 69.2 71.1
130 U T E P 68.7 71.9 68.0 69.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0 1-0 1-0
South Florida 95.8 99.1 96.7 97.2 0-0 1-0
Temple 93.3 93.3 93.7 93.4 0-0 0-1
Cincinnati 89.7 91.0 89.2 89.9 0-0 1-0
East Carolina 82.3 81.4 81.2 81.6 0-0 0-1
Connecticut 81.9 82.0 80.4 81.4 0-1 0-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 105.2 107.3 106.7 106.4 0-0 1-0
Houston 99.1 100.6 99.8 99.8 0-0 1-0
Tulane 95.5 95.6 95.1 95.4 0-0 0-1
Navy 94.5 97.3 93.8 95.2 0-0 0-1
Tulsa 91.9 90.4 92.4 91.6 0-0 1-0
SMU 92.0 91.1 90.7 91.3 0-0 0-1
AAC Averages 94.5 95.1 94.4 94.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 131.9 128.6 132.8 131.1 0-0 1-0
Boston College 118.1 115.1 118.4 117.2 0-0 1-0
N. Carolina St. 113.6 112.8 113.4 113.3 0-0 1-0
Florida St. 109.7 109.0 109.3 109.3 0-1 0-1
Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1 0-0 1-0
Syracuse 106.3 104.7 105.1 105.4 0-0 1-0
Louisville 103.6 103.4 103.0 103.3 0-0 0-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.1 115.1 116.7 116.3 0-0 0-1
Virginia Tech 116.1 115.6 116.0 115.9 1-0 1-0
Duke 113.3 110.7 112.4 112.2 0-0 1-0
Georgia Tech 112.5 111.2 112.1 112.0 0-0 1-0
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2 0-0 1-0
N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.7 104.8 0-0 0-1
Virginia 101.9 102.4 100.3 101.5 0-0 1-0
ACC Averages 111.7 110.3 111.1 111.0
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.5 121.1 123.1 122.2 0-0 1-0
T C U 112.9 112.2 111.7 112.2 0-0 1-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2 0-0 1-0
West Virginia 111.6 110.8 111.0 111.1 0-0 1-0
Iowa State 110.5 108.6 110.0 109.7 0-0 0-0
Texas 109.8 108.3 108.9 109.0 0-0 0-1
Kansas St. 106.8 105.4 106.2 106.1 0-0 1-0
Texas Tech 103.2 101.3 101.4 102.0 0-0 0-1
Baylor 102.7 100.4 102.1 101.7 0-0 1-0
Kansas 93.5 91.9 91.2 92.2 0-0 0-1
Big 12 Averages 108.7 107.1 107.8 107.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 126.2 123.5 126.8 125.5 0-0 1-0
Michigan St. 124.7 122.4 124.8 124.0 0-0 1-0
Michigan 121.6 120.2 122.3 121.3 0-0 0-1
Penn St. 116.7 113.5 117.0 115.7 0-0 1-0
Maryland 104.6 102.8 103.4 103.6 0-0 1-0
Rutgers 98.1 97.1 96.2 97.1 0-0 1-0
Indiana 97.6 96.5 97.1 97.1 0-0 1-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 121.7 118.6 121.7 120.7 0-0 1-0
Northwestern 114.8 112.8 115.2 114.3 1-0 1-0
Iowa 113.7 111.2 112.9 112.6 0-0 1-0
Purdue 107.9 106.1 106.8 106.9 0-1 0-1
Minnesota 106.0 105.2 105.5 105.6 0-0 1-0
Nebraska 100.3 98.5 97.6 98.8 0-0 0-0
Illinois 92.9 92.5 91.7 92.4 0-0 1-0
Big Ten Averages 110.5 108.6 109.9 109.7
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 99.3 99.9 100.3 99.8 0-0 0-1
Marshall 94.7 97.6 95.9 96.1 0-0 1-0
Middle Tennessee 89.1 90.8 90.0 90.0 0-0 0-1
Florida Int’l. 82.2 86.6 82.8 83.9 0-0 0-1
W. Kentucky 82.3 85.7 83.4 83.8 0-0 0-1
Old Dominion 82.0 86.3 82.0 83.5 0-0 0-1
Charlotte 76.7 79.2 76.8 77.6 0-0 1-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 95.8 98.7 96.6 97.0 0-0 1-0
Louisiana Tech 93.3 95.8 94.5 94.5 0-0 1-0
U A B 91.8 94.3 92.2 92.8 0-0 1-0
Southern Miss. 82.3 85.7 82.8 83.6 0-0 1-0
U T S A 78.9 83.7 79.8 80.8 0-0 0-1
Rice 70.5 73.6 69.2 71.1 0-0 1-1
U T E P 68.7 71.9 68.0 69.5 0-0 0-1
CUSA Averages 84.8 87.8 85.3 86.0
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.7 121.9 124.1 123.9 x 1-0
BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4 x 1-0
Army 95.6 96.1 95.5 95.8 x 0-1
Massachusetts 90.5 92.5 92.3 91.8 x 1-1
Liberty 81.7 79.9 82.2 81.3 x 1-0
N. Mexico St. 78.9 81.6 79.2 79.9 x 0-2
Indep.  Averages 95.2 95.3 95.5 95.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 94.5 96.9 95.6 95.7 0-0 1-0
Ohio U 94.4 95.8 95.7 95.3 0-0 1-0
Miami (O) 91.1 93.4 92.5 92.3 0-0 0-1
Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 85.0 85.3 85.6 85.3 0-0 0-1
Kent St. 80.8 82.1 80.2 81.0 0-0 0-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.0 99.1 97.1 97.7 0-0 1-0
Northern Illinois 95.8 96.7 95.7 96.1 0-0 0-1
Western Michigan 91.4 93.3 92.4 92.4 0-0 0-1
Eastern Michigan 89.6 91.0 90.3 90.3 0-0 1-0
Central Michigan 85.6 88.9 86.1 86.9 0-0 0-1
Ball St. 78.2 80.9 77.9 79.0 0-0 1-0
MAC Averages 89.5 91.3 90.0 90.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.3 112.8 114.3 113.5 0-0 1-0
Utah St. 100.3 101.5 101.9 101.2 0-0 0-1
Wyoming 98.0 98.1 97.8 97.9 0-0 1-1
Air Force 92.7 92.7 91.9 92.4 0-0 1-0
New Mexico 85.9 87.8 85.5 86.4 0-0 1-0
Colo. State 80.6 81.9 80.7 81.1 0-1 0-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 108.5 106.9 108.2 107.9 0-0 1-0
San Diego St. 98.9 99.5 100.1 99.5 0-0 0-1
Nevada 93.7 93.8 93.9 93.8 0-0 1-0
U N L V 89.3 90.8 89.8 90.0 0-0 0-1
Hawaii 79.8 82.0 78.3 80.0 1-0 2-0
San Jose St. 76.3 77.1 74.5 76.0 0-0 0-1
MWC Averages 93.1 93.7 93.1 93.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.9 124.4 129.3 126.8 0-0 0-1
Stanford 120.1 117.5 120.7 119.4 0-0 1-0
Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8 0-0 1-0
California 110.0 107.2 109.6 108.9 0-0 1-0
Washington St. 108.6 107.7 107.5 107.9 0-0 1-0
Oregon St. 87.4 84.8 85.7 86.0 0-0 0-1
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.3 110.7 111.6 111.5 0-0 1-0
Utah 111.5 109.5 112.4 111.2 0-0 1-0
Arizona St. 106.7 105.2 105.6 105.8 0-0 1-0
Arizona 106.1 104.1 106.0 105.4 0-0 0-1
Colorado 100.6 102.3 102.0 101.6 0-0 1-0
U C L A 98.9 98.7 96.3 97.9 0-0 0-1
Pac-12 Averages 108.6 107.2 108.5 108.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.1 126.5 132.6 130.0 0-0 1-0
Missouri 114.6 112.9 116.2 114.5 0-0 1-0
Florida 113.4 111.1 113.8 112.7 0-0 1-0
S. Carolina 112.3 111.4 111.6 111.8 0-0 1-0
Kentucky 106.0 104.9 105.4 105.4 0-0 1-0
Vanderbilt 99.1 100.1 99.2 99.5 0-0 1-0
Tennessee 96.9 97.2 96.2 96.8 0-0 0-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 133.5 131.2 135.4 133.4 0-0 1-0
Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6 0-0 1-0
Mississippi St. 122.8 119.5 123.0 121.8 0-0 1-0
L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1 0-0 1-0
Texas A&M 111.2 110.1 111.2 110.8 0-0 1-0
Ole Miss 107.8 107.5 108.6 107.9 0-0 1-0
Arkansas 109.4 106.5 107.7 107.9 0-0 1-0
SEC Averages 113.9 112.4 114.3 113.5
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 91.5 92.8 92.8 92.3 0-0 0-1
Troy 89.2 90.7 90.8 90.2 0-0 0-1
Georgia Southern 82.7 83.9 82.6 83.1 0-0 1-0
Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9 0-0 1-0
Coastal Carolina 73.8 76.7 74.2 74.9 0-0 0-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2 0-0 1-0
UL-Monroe 87.1 86.5 87.9 87.2 0-0 1-0
South Alabama 81.9 84.4 83.3 83.2 0-0 0-1
Louisiana 79.3 81.5 80.3 80.4 0-0 1-0
Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5 0-0 0-1
Sun Belt Averages 82.2 84.1 83.0 83.1

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.9 112.4 114.3 113.5
2 ACC 111.7 110.3 111.1 111.0
3 BTEN 110.5 108.6 109.9 109.7
4 P-12 108.6 107.2 108.5 108.1
5 B12 108.7 107.1 107.8 107.9
6 IND 95.2 95.3 95.5 95.3
7 AAC 94.5 95.1 94.4 94.7
8 MWC 93.1 93.7 93.1 93.3
9 MAC 89.5 91.3 90.0 90.2
10 CUSA 84.8 87.8 85.3 86.0
11 SBC 82.2 84.1 83.0 83.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings’ Spreads

Friday September 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU TCU -19.4 -19.5 -19.5
Saturday September 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Army Liberty 16.4 18.7 15.8
Coastal Carolina UAB -15.5 -15.1 -15.6
South Florida Georgia Tech -13.7 -9.1 -12.4
Michigan Western Michigan 32.7 29.3 32.3
Charlotte Appalachian St. -12.7 -11.6 -13.9
Purdue Eastern Michigan 21.3 18.2 19.5
Wisconsin New Mexico 38.8 33.8 39.2
Florida Atlantic Air Force 9.6 10.2 11.4
Old Dominion Florida Int’l. 2.3 2.3 1.7
Northwestern Duke 4.6 5.0 5.8
Kansas St. Mississippi St. -13.1 -11.1 -13.8
Houston Arizona -3.9 -0.5 -3.2
Vanderbilt Nevada 8.4 9.3 8.3
North Carolina St. Georgia St. 39.1 35.2 38.0
Oklahoma UCLA 26.6 25.4 29.8
Utah St. New Mexico St. 24.4 22.9 25.7
Central Michigan Kansas -4.9 0.0 -2.1
UNLV UTEP 23.6 22.0 24.9
Navy Memphis -7.7 -7.0 -9.9
East Carolina North Carolina -21.0 -20.9 -21.5
Ohio St. Rutgers 31.0 29.4 33.6
Temple Buffalo 0.8 -1.6 0.1
South Carolina Georgia -15.8 -12.1 -18.0
UTSA Baylor -21.3 -14.2 -19.8
Alabama Arkansas St. 48.6 44.4 48.6
Nebraska Colorado 2.6 -0.8 -1.4
Southern Miss. UL-Monroe -2.3 1.7 -2.6
Notre Dame Ball St. 50.4 44.0 49.2
Iowa Iowa St. 4.8 4.1 4.3
Bowling Green Maryland -17.1 -15.0 -15.2
Georgia Southern Massachusetts -4.8 -5.6 -6.7
Texas A&M Clemson -17.8 -15.5 -18.6
Missouri Wyoming 19.6 17.8 21.4
Indiana Virginia -1.3 -2.9 -0.2
Florida Kentucky 10.4 9.2 11.4
Northern Illinois Utah -12.8 -9.8 -13.7
Minnesota Fresno St. 0.5 1.3 0.3
Colorado St. Arkansas -25.8 -21.6 -24.0
Miami (O) Cincinnati 2.9 3.9 4.8
Texas Tulsa 20.9 20.9 19.4
Oklahoma St. South Alabama 34.3 29.4 32.3
Pittsburgh Penn St. -8.7 -5.7 -9.7
Stanford USC 10.8 9.7 12.2
BYU California -8.0 -4.4 -7.0
Boise St. Connecticut 34.4 33.8 36.9
Arizona St. Michigan St. -15.1 -14.3 -16.2
Washington St. San Jose St. 35.3 33.6 36.0
Hawaii Rice 13.3 12.4 13.1

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Wyoming Louisiana Tech
Cure AAC SBC Navy Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Western Kentucky Louisiana-Lafayette
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Ohio U Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC Cincinnati Buffalo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas AAC CUSA Central Florida North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC [UAB] [UL-Monroe]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [BYU]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Atlantic Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Army]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Air Force] Colorado
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten North Carolina St. Minnesota
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville Arkansas
Camping World ACC Big 12 Boston College West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Oregon
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large TCU Boise St.
Military AAC ACC South Florida Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech Utah
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Washington St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern LSU
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Fiesta At-large At-large USC Ohio St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Florida
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Notre Dame
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
National Championship Game Semifinal Winners Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 27, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 1

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:55 am

Since only a handful of games were played in Week 0, and the ratings barely moved, we will dispense with posting a new set of ratings this week and feature just our spreads for Week 1 and combine our Selections against the Spread For Week 1, as there are no NFL games this weekend.

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, August 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Connecticut Central Florida -24.2 -23.5 -25.4
Purdue Northwestern -4.0 -3.2 -5.8
Minnesota New Mexico St. 27.5 23.4 26.3
Tulane Wake Forest -12.8 -10.4 -10.7
Friday, August 31
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Michigan St. Utah St. 33.9 29.8 33.1
Western Michigan Syracuse -12.2 -7.8 -9.2
Wisconsin Western Kentucky 45.7 37.6 45.2
Colorado (n) Colorado St. 13.7 13.5 14.5
Stanford San Diego St. 24.6 21.0 24.2
Duke Army 20.2 16.5 19.4
Saturday, September 1
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Oklahoma Florida Atlantic 20.5 17.7 19.6
Rice Houston -26.2 -24.5 -29.0
Ohio St. Oregon St. 36.1 35.8 38.2
Penn St. Appalachian St. 36.8 31.6 35.9
Nebraska Akron 12.9 9.6 10.0
Boston College Massachusetts 27.5 21.3 25.2
Illinois Kent St. 16.2 14.5 15.8
Rutgers Texas St. 30.5 25.7 28.7
Florida Int’l. Indiana -13.3 -7.0 -12.2
Iowa Northern Illinois 20.0 15.1 18.4
Maryland (n) Texas -18.4 -19.2 -19.8
Troy Boise St. -14.9 -12.1 -13.7
South Alabama Louisiana Tech -9.8 -10.1 -10.0
Miami (O) Marshall -0.3 -0.7 0.9
North Texas SMU -0.6 3.9 1.1
Vanderbilt Middle Tennessee 6.9 5.6 4.6
Arizona BYU 17.0 13.6 16.7
Arizona St. UTSA 28.2 20.6 25.2
USC UNLV 26.4 22.9 25.1
UCLA Cincinnati 18.4 16.7 16.5
Auburn (n) Washington -4.6 -2.3 -4.8
Kentucky Central Michigan 24.5 19.2 23.6
Texas Tech (n) Ole Miss 0.7 -1.0 -1.9
South Carolina Coastal Carolina 42.2 37.8 41.1
West Virginia (n) Tennessee 11.2 9.2 10.7
California North Carolina 9.5 7.6 10.1
Wyoming Washington St. -4.5 -2.8 -2.5
Oregon Bowling Green 32.3 32.2 32.3
Liberty Old Dominion -9.8 -14.9 -12.3
Notre Dame Michigan 6.9 3.9 4.0
Alabama (n) Louisville 28.4 25.5 30.7
Hawaii Navy -17.6 -18.6 -19.4
Sunday, September 2
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
LSU (n) Miami (Fla.) -10.2 -7.9 -9.4
Monday, September 3
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Florida St. Virginia Tech 0.2 0.1 0.2

(n) means neutral site game, but some teams may receive a little advantage for playing close to home.

FBS vs. FCS Games–PiRate Rating Spread Only

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Ball St. Central Conn. 5.1
Georgia St. Kennesaw St. 3.6
Oklahoma St. Missouri St. 40.9
San Jose St. UC-Davis -0.9
Texas A&M Northwestern St. 40.6
UAB Savannah St. 28.8
Utah Weber St. 22.0
Eastern Michigan Monmouth 20.0
Air Force Stony Brook 13.7
Arkansas Eastern Illinois 29.8
Arkansas St. SE Missouri 24.9
Baylor Abilene Christian 31.3
Buffalo Delaware St. 38.6
Charlotte Fordham 10.8
Clemson Furman 43.7
East Carolina N.C. A&T 9.9
Florida Chas. Southern 32.5
Fresno St. Idaho 21.0
Georgia Austin Peay 47.8
Georgia Southern S. Carolina St. 22.3
Georgia Tech Alcorn St. 39.9
Iowa St. South Dakota St. 16.5
Kansas Nicholls St. 10.6
Kansas St. South Dakota 25.2
La.-Monroe SE Louisiana 10.1
Louisiana Grambling 10.2
Memphis Mercer 32.9
Mississippi St. S F Austin 44.3
Missouri UT-Martin 29.3
N. Carolina St. James Madison 17.2
Nevada Portland St. 21.0
New Mexico Incarnate Word 27.8
Ohio U Howard 34.7
Pittsburgh Albany 30.1
South Florida Elon 28.7
Southern Miss. Jackson St. 35.4
TCU Southern 47.6
Temple Villanova 18.8
Toledo VMI 42.4
Tulsa Central Arkansas 10.0
UTEP Northern Arizona -6.0
Virginia Richmond 15.6

PiRate Ratings Picks Versus The Spread

This year, we are going to stick our necks out and go with straight spread and totals wagering in our imaginary picks with an imaginary bank account.

Remember: We never lose money on these picks, because they are strictly for fun.  We suggest you use these selections the same way.

Unless otherwise stated, all of our pretend picks will be for $100 imaginary.

Date 8/27-9/3 $100 per pick
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Purdue Northwestern 2 1/2 Northwestern
Michigan St. Utah St. 23 Michigan St.
Penn St. Appalachian St. 23 1/2 Penn St.
Nebraska Akron 24 1/2 Akron
Iowa Northern Illinois 10 Iowa
Texas Maryland 13 Texas
California North Carolina 7 California

 

 

 

August 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 0

It’s here!  After a long hot, humid Summer that still wears on, the college football season has a dress rehearsal weekend where you are invited to see a couple of FBS games on Saturday, plus a couple more FBS vs. FCS games.

We still have no word from the two coaches in limbo.  As of this writing, neither Urban Meyer nor D.J. Durkin know their fate for the 2018 season and beyond.  Because of these two coaches being in limbo, so are the PiRate Ratings for Week 1.

We are calling this Week 0, and we are keeping the preseason ratings about where they were when we previewed each of the 10 conferences and the independents.  The six FBS teams in action this weekend have had their ratings tweaked minimally due to some injuries and suspensions, but this has amounted to tenths of a point for each team.

Without further adieu, the PiRates are ready to officially debut with the ratings.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

August 25, 2018
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New Mexico St. Wyoming -13.9 -10.8 -13.7
Colorado St. Hawaii 14.7 14.2 17.4
FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Massachusetts Duquesne 17.4
Rice Prairie View 13.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note: We will not offer retrodictive rankings this season–it is too time-consuming to use this algorithm.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 132.0 129.3 133.8 131.7
2 Clemson 131.7 128.4 132.6 130.9
3 Georgia 130.9 126.3 132.4 129.8
4 Washington 128.1 125.0 130.7 127.9
5 Michigan St. 127.7 125.1 128.1 127.0
6 Ohio St. 125.1 122.3 125.6 124.3
7 Notre Dame 125.6 121.5 123.7 123.6
8 Auburn 122.0 121.2 124.4 122.5
9 Wisconsin 123.1 119.2 123.4 121.9
10 Michigan 121.7 120.6 122.7 121.6
11 Mississippi St. 122.5 119.2 122.7 121.5
12 Penn St. 121.2 117.7 121.6 120.2
13 Stanford 120.3 117.5 121.0 119.6
14 Miami 120.3 118.2 120.0 119.5
15 Oklahoma 119.5 117.7 119.8 119.0
16 Boston College 117.3 113.7 117.2 116.1
17 Oregon 114.4 114.5 115.1 114.7
18 Missouri 114.4 112.7 116.0 114.3
19 Northwestern 114.8 112.6 115.4 114.3
20 Virginia Tech 114.3 113.7 114.0 114.0
21 N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.0 113.6 113.5
22 Texas 113.2 111.9 112.8 112.6
23 S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.2 112.3
24 Florida 112.9 110.6 113.3 112.2
25 Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2
26 Duke 113.3 110.4 112.4 112.1
27 T C U 112.7 112.0 111.5 112.0
28 Iowa 113.2 110.0 112.0 111.7
29 Georgia Tech 112.2 110.9 111.8 111.7
30 U S C 112.5 110.7 111.8 111.7
31 Florida St. 111.5 110.9 111.3 111.2
32 Utah 111.0 109.0 111.9 110.7
33 Central Florida 110.8 110.4 110.7 110.6
34 L S U 110.1 110.3 110.7 110.4
35 Texas A&M 110.7 109.6 110.7 110.3
36 Boise St. 110.2 109.3 110.9 110.1
37 Iowa State 110.7 108.8 110.2 109.9
38 California 110.3 107.5 110.1 109.3
39 West Virginia 110.0 108.8 109.1 109.3
40 Arizona 109.9 107.6 110.0 109.1
41 Wake Forest 109.8 107.5 107.3 108.2
42 Arkansas 109.3 106.4 107.6 107.8
43 Purdue 107.9 106.3 106.6 106.9
44 Kansas St. 107.4 106.0 106.8 106.7
45 Fresno St. 107.0 105.4 106.7 106.4
46 Kentucky 106.8 105.3 106.3 106.1
47 Washington St. 107.0 105.8 105.4 106.1
48 Ole Miss 105.3 105.1 106.1 105.5
49 Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.7 105.4
50 Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2
51 Louisville 105.1 105.3 104.6 105.0
52 Syracuse 106.2 104.2 104.6 105.0
53 Texas Tech 106.0 104.0 104.2 104.7
54 N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
55 Arizona St. 105.4 103.3 103.8 104.2
56 Minnesota 104.7 103.6 104.0 104.1
57 Florida Atlantic 102.0 103.0 103.3 102.8
58 Baylor 102.9 100.6 102.3 101.9
59 U C L A 102.5 102.2 100.0 101.5
60 Virginia 101.5 102.0 99.9 101.1
61 Maryland 102.2 100.2 100.5 101.0
62 Houston 99.9 101.4 101.0 100.8
63 Colorado 98.9 100.4 100.1 99.8
64 Navy 98.7 101.7 98.5 99.7
65 San Diego St. 98.7 99.5 99.8 99.3
66 Nebraska 100.5 98.7 97.8 99.0
67 Tennessee 98.8 99.5 98.4 98.9
68 Wyoming 98.5 98.6 98.8 98.6
69 Utah St. 96.8 98.3 98.1 97.7
70 South Florida 96.0 99.3 96.9 97.4
71 Rutgers 98.4 97.0 96.2 97.2
72 Indiana 97.8 96.3 97.3 97.1
73 Toledo 96.3 98.4 96.4 97.0
74 Northern Illinois 96.3 97.9 96.6 96.9
75 Vanderbilt 96.8 97.5 96.2 96.9
76 BYU 95.9 97.0 96.3 96.4
77 Ohio U 95.1 96.5 96.4 96.0
78 Temple 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
79 Army 95.6 96.4 95.5 95.9
80 Marshall 94.3 97.1 95.0 95.5
81 Buffalo 94.3 96.7 95.4 95.5
82 Louisiana Tech 93.8 96.4 95.2 95.1
83 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 SMU 95.1 93.8 94.0 94.3
85 N. Texas 93.0 96.3 93.6 94.3
86 Illinois 94.0 93.5 92.9 93.5
87 Troy 91.8 93.7 93.7 93.1
88 Miami (O) 91.5 93.9 93.4 92.9
89 Western Michigan 91.5 93.8 92.9 92.8
90 Middle Tennessee 91.4 93.4 93.0 92.6
91 Kansas 93.9 92.3 91.6 92.6
92 Nevada 92.4 92.5 92.6 92.5
93 U A B 91.1 93.6 91.5 92.1
94 Tulsa 91.8 90.3 92.3 91.5
95 Air Force 91.7 91.7 90.9 91.4
96 Massachusetts 89.8 92.4 92.0 91.4
97 Akron 90.5 92.1 90.7 91.1
98 U N L V 89.1 90.8 89.6 89.8
99 Eastern Michigan 89.1 90.5 89.8 89.8
100 Old Dominion 87.5 91.3 89.0 89.3
101 Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2
102 Appalachian St. 87.5 89.1 88.7 88.4
103 UL-Monroe 87.3 86.7 88.1 87.4
104 Cincinnati 87.1 88.5 86.5 87.3
105 Oregon St. 88.5 86.0 86.9 87.1
106 Colo. State 85.6 87.1 86.1 86.3
107 New Mexico 85.7 87.6 85.3 86.2
108 Central Michigan 84.8 88.5 85.2 86.2
109 Bowling Green 85.1 85.4 85.7 85.4
110 Florida Int’l. 82.0 86.8 82.6 83.8
111 Connecticut 84.1 84.4 82.8 83.8
112 N. Mexico St. 82.0 85.3 82.5 83.3
113 Southern Miss. 81.6 85.0 82.1 82.9
114 Georgia Southern 82.5 83.7 82.4 82.9
115 South Alabama 81.4 83.8 82.6 82.6
116 U T S A 80.2 85.6 81.6 82.5
117 East Carolina 83.1 82.2 82.0 82.4
118 W. Kentucky 80.4 84.6 81.2 82.1
119 Kent St. 80.2 81.6 79.5 80.4
120 Louisiana 78.9 81.1 79.9 80.0
121 Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9
122 Ball St. 77.7 80.4 77.4 78.5
123 Charlotte 76.2 78.7 76.3 77.1
124 San Jose St. 76.6 77.4 74.8 76.3
125 Liberty 75.2 73.9 74.2 74.5
126 Coastal Carolina 73.2 76.4 73.6 74.4
127 Hawaii 74.4 76.4 72.2 74.3
128 Rice 71.4 74.5 69.7 71.9
129 Texas State 70.4 73.9 69.9 71.4
130 U T E P 69.3 72.5 68.6 70.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 110.8 110.4 110.7 110.6 0-0 0-0
South Florida 96.0 99.3 96.9 97.4 0-0 0-0
Temple 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9 0-0 0-0
Cincinnati 87.1 88.5 86.5 87.3 0-0 0-0
Connecticut 84.1 84.4 82.8 83.8 0-0 0-0
East Carolina 83.1 82.2 82.0 82.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.7 105.4 0-0 0-0
Houston 99.9 101.4 101.0 100.8 0-0 0-0
Navy 98.7 101.7 98.5 99.7 0-0 0-0
Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.0 94.3 0-0 0-0
SMU 95.1 93.8 94.0 94.3 0-0 0-0
Tulsa 91.8 90.3 92.3 91.5 0-0 0-0
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 131.7 128.4 132.6 130.9 0-0 0-0
Boston College 117.3 113.7 117.2 116.1 0-0 0-0
N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.0 113.6 113.5 0-0 0-0
Florida St. 111.5 110.9 111.3 111.2 0-0 0-0
Wake Forest 109.8 107.5 107.3 108.2 0-0 0-0
Louisville 105.1 105.3 104.6 105.0 0-0 0-0
Syracuse 106.2 104.2 104.6 105.0 0-0 0-0
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 120.3 118.2 120.0 119.5 0-0 0-0
Virginia Tech 114.3 113.7 114.0 114.0 0-0 0-0
Duke 113.3 110.4 112.4 112.1 0-0 0-0
Georgia Tech 112.2 110.9 111.8 111.7 0-0 0-0
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.2 104.7 105.2 0-0 0-0
N. Carolina 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 0-0 0-0
Virginia 101.5 102.0 99.9 101.1 0-0 0-0
ACC Averages 112.0 110.6 111.3 111.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.5 117.7 119.8 119.0 0-0 0-0
Texas 113.2 111.9 112.8 112.6 0-0 0-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 110.8 112.7 112.2 0-0 0-0
T C U 112.7 112.0 111.5 112.0 0-0 0-0
Iowa State 110.7 108.8 110.2 109.9 0-0 0-0
West Virginia 110.0 108.8 109.1 109.3 0-0 0-0
Kansas St. 107.4 106.0 106.8 106.7 0-0 0-0
Texas Tech 106.0 104.0 104.2 104.7 0-0 0-0
Baylor 102.9 100.6 102.3 101.9 0-0 0-0
Kansas 93.9 92.3 91.6 92.6 0-0 0-0
Big 12 Averages 108.9 107.3 108.1 108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan St. 127.7 125.1 128.1 127.0 0-0 0-0
Ohio St. 125.1 122.3 125.6 124.3 0-0 0-0
Michigan 121.7 120.6 122.7 121.6 0-0 0-0
Penn St. 121.2 117.7 121.6 120.2 0-0 0-0
Maryland 102.2 100.2 100.5 101.0 0-0 0-0
Rutgers 98.4 97.0 96.2 97.2 0-0 0-0
Indiana 97.8 96.3 97.3 97.1 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 123.1 119.2 123.4 121.9 0-0 0-0
Northwestern 114.8 112.6 115.4 114.3 0-0 0-0
Iowa 113.2 110.0 112.0 111.7 0-0 0-0
Purdue 107.9 106.3 106.6 106.9 0-0 0-0
Minnesota 104.7 103.6 104.0 104.1 0-0 0-0
Nebraska 100.5 98.7 97.8 99.0 0-0 0-0
Illinois 94.0 93.5 92.9 93.5 0-0 0-0
Big Ten Averages 110.9 108.8 110.3 110.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 102.0 103.0 103.3 102.8 0-0 0-0
Marshall 94.3 97.1 95.0 95.5 0-0 0-0
Middle Tennessee 91.4 93.4 93.0 92.6 0-0 0-0
Old Dominion 87.5 91.3 89.0 89.3 0-0 0-0
Florida Int’l. 82.0 86.8 82.6 83.8 0-0 0-0
W. Kentucky 80.4 84.6 81.2 82.1 0-0 0-0
Charlotte 76.2 78.7 76.3 77.1 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Louisiana Tech 93.8 96.4 95.2 95.1 0-0 0-0
N. Texas 93.0 96.3 93.6 94.3 0-0 0-0
U A B 91.1 93.6 91.5 92.1 0-0 0-0
Southern Miss. 81.6 85.0 82.1 82.9 0-0 0-0
U T S A 80.2 85.6 81.6 82.5 0-0 0-0
Rice 71.4 74.5 69.7 71.9 0-0 0-0
U T E P 69.3 72.5 68.6 70.1 0-0 0-0
CUSA Averages 85.3 88.5 85.9 86.6
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Overall
Notre Dame 125.6 121.5 123.7 123.6 0-0
BYU 95.9 97.0 96.3 96.4 0-0
Army 95.6 96.4 95.5 95.9 0-0
Massachusetts 89.8 92.4 92.0 91.4 0-0
N. Mexico St. 82.0 85.3 82.5 83.3 0-0
Liberty 75.2 73.9 74.2 74.5 0-0
Indep. Averages 94.0 94.4 94.0 94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 95.1 96.5 96.4 96.0 0-0 0-0
Buffalo 94.3 96.7 95.4 95.5 0-0 0-0
Miami (O) 91.5 93.9 93.4 92.9 0-0 0-0
Akron 90.5 92.1 90.7 91.1 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 85.1 85.4 85.7 85.4 0-0 0-0
Kent St. 80.2 81.6 79.5 80.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.3 98.4 96.4 97.0 0-0 0-0
Northern Illinois 96.3 97.9 96.6 96.9 0-0 0-0
Western Michigan 91.5 93.8 92.9 92.8 0-0 0-0
Eastern Michigan 89.1 90.5 89.8 89.8 0-0 0-0
Central Michigan 84.8 88.5 85.2 86.2 0-0 0-0
Ball St. 77.7 80.4 77.4 78.5 0-0 0-0
MAC Averages 89.4 91.3 90.0 90.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 110.2 109.3 110.9 110.1 0-0 0-0
Wyoming 98.5 98.6 98.8 98.6 0-0 0-0
Utah St. 96.8 98.3 98.1 97.7 0-0 0-0
Air Force 91.7 91.7 90.9 91.4 0-0 0-0
Colo. State 85.6 87.1 86.1 86.3 0-0 0-0
New Mexico 85.7 87.6 85.3 86.2 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 107.0 105.4 106.7 106.4 0-0 0-0
San Diego St. 98.7 99.5 99.8 99.3 0-0 0-0
Nevada 92.4 92.5 92.6 92.5 0-0 0-0
U N L V 89.1 90.8 89.6 89.8 0-0 0-0
San Jose St. 76.6 77.4 74.8 76.3 0-0 0-0
Hawaii 74.4 76.4 72.2 74.3 0-0 0-0
MWC Averages 92.2 92.9 92.2 92.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 128.1 125.0 130.7 127.9 0-0 0-0
Stanford 120.3 117.5 121.0 119.6 0-0 0-0
Oregon 114.4 114.5 115.1 114.7 0-0 0-0
California 110.3 107.5 110.1 109.3 0-0 0-0
Washington St. 107.0 105.8 105.4 106.1 0-0 0-0
Oregon St. 88.5 86.0 86.9 87.1 0-0 0-0
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.5 110.7 111.8 111.7 0-0 0-0
Utah 111.0 109.0 111.9 110.7 0-0 0-0
Arizona 109.9 107.6 110.0 109.1 0-0 0-0
Arizona St. 105.4 103.3 103.8 104.2 0-0 0-0
U C L A 102.5 102.2 100.0 101.5 0-0 0-0
Colorado 98.9 100.4 100.1 99.8 0-0 0-0
Pac-12 Averages 109.1 107.4 108.9 108.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 130.9 126.3 132.4 129.8 0-0 0-0
Missouri 114.4 112.7 116.0 114.3 0-0 0-0
S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.2 112.3 0-0 0-0
Florida 112.9 110.6 113.3 112.2 0-0 0-0
Kentucky 106.8 105.3 106.3 106.1 0-0 0-0
Tennessee 98.8 99.5 98.4 98.9 0-0 0-0
Vanderbilt 96.8 97.5 96.2 96.9 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 132.0 129.3 133.8 131.7 0-0 0-0
Auburn 122.0 121.2 124.4 122.5 0-0 0-0
Mississippi St. 122.5 119.2 122.7 121.5 0-0 0-0
L S U 110.1 110.3 110.7 110.4 0-0 0-0
Texas A&M 110.7 109.6 110.7 110.3 0-0 0-0
Arkansas 109.3 106.4 107.6 107.8 0-0 0-0
Ole Miss 105.3 105.1 106.1 105.5 0-0 0-0
SEC Averages 113.2 111.8 113.6 112.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Troy 91.8 93.7 93.7 93.1 0-0 0-0
Appalachian St. 87.5 89.1 88.7 88.4 0-0 0-0
Georgia Southern 82.5 83.7 82.4 82.9 0-0 0-0
Georgia St. 77.6 80.6 78.4 78.9 0-0 0-0
Coastal Carolina 73.2 76.4 73.6 74.4 0-0 0-0
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.0 89.8 89.7 89.2 0-0 0-0
UL-Monroe 87.3 86.7 88.1 87.4 0-0 0-0
South Alabama 81.4 83.8 82.6 82.6 0-0 0-0
Louisiana 78.9 81.1 79.9 80.0 0-0 0-0
Texas State 70.4 73.9 69.9 71.4 0-0 0-0
Sun Belt Averages 81.9 83.9 82.7 82.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.2 111.8 113.6 112.9
2 ACC 112.0 110.6 111.3 111.3
3 BTEN 110.9 108.8 110.3 110.0
4 P-12 109.1 107.4 108.9 108.5
5 B12 108.9 107.3 108.1 108.1
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
7 IND 94.0 94.4 94.0 94.2
8 MWC 92.2 92.9 92.2 92.4
9 MAC 89.4 91.3 90.0 90.2
10 CUSA 85.3 88.5 85.9 86.6
11 SBC 81.9 83.9 82.7 82.8

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Nevada Southern Miss.
Cure CUSA SBC Navy Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Toledo Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Tulane Western Michigan
Gasparilla AAC CUSA USF North Texas
Bahamas AAC CUSA UCF Florida Atlantic
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Northern Illinois Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Army]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [UCLA]
Doll. General MAC SBC Ohio Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Wyoming
Ht. of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Washington St.
Independence ACC SEC Duke LSU
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Georgia Tech Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/B10 SEC Virginia Tech Tennessee
Camp. World ACC Big 12 Boston College West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. USC
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Miami (Fl) Texas
Military AAC ACC Temple Wake Forest
Sun ACC Pac-12 Florida St. California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. Texas A&M
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Utah
Gator ACC/B10 SEC Northwestern Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Missouri
Fiesta At-large At-large Ohio St. Boise St.
Citrus ACC/B10 SEC Wisconsin Auburn
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. Stanford
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS FBS Alabama Washington
Orange FBS FBS Clemson Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Orange Cotton Clemson Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

This Week’s Selections–This will normally run on Thursdays and include both NCAA and NFL selections.  Since there are only 2 possible games this week, we will not make any selections.  We will not limit ourselves to just Money Line Parlays this season.  We will go with whatever we feel least indecisive about publicly listing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 14, 2018

2018 FBS Independents Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.

Some of our Group of 5 Conference won-loss predictions were figured before the beginning of August preseason practices. Thus, it could be that a player or players on some teams have already suffered season-ending or multiple game injuries or have left their teams, and these won-loss predictions no longer accurately reflect our ratings. We hope that by the time we preview the Power 5 conferences, we will know who is not going to be available (players and head coaches).

The number of FBS Independents has ballooned by 50% as Liberty moves up to FBS football and New Mexico State returns to this group after spending four years in the Sun Belt Conference.

There is no real affiliation between the six teams in the independent ranks. The top program, Notre Dame, is all but a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Irish play five ACC teams every year. In the past, Notre Dame may have been hurt by not being affiliated with a conference. That is no longer the case. Notre Dame has an easier path to the FBS Playoffs now that the top 4 teams qualify. With no conference championship game to play and the ability to arrange their schedule in the most convenient way, Notre Dame is a serious contender this year to make their first appearance in the playoffs.
If the Irish run the table or finish a strong 11-1, it will be the defense that carries them to the promised land. After surrendering 21.5 points per game and 369 yards per game in 2017, the outlook for 2018 looks better. A solid linebacking corps ranks among the nation’s elite. Middle linebacker Te’von Coney and outside linebacker Drue Tranquill may be the best duo in the nation in ruining enemy drives. Julian Love has a chance to be named an All-American from his cornerback position. The Irish are deep and talented on the back line of defense. The front four is the weakness of the defense, but in this case, the weakness means they are maybe the 30th best defensive line in the nation.

Look for an improved pass rush this year. Road games against Northwestern and Southern Cal are the two toughest on the schedule, and the Irish are strong enough this year to win both and should at least split these two games.

Brigham Young was one of the perennial best passing teams for decades during the Lavell Edwards days. A who’s who of quarterbacks including Ty Detmer, Jim McMahon, Marc Wilson, Gifford Nielsen, and Virgil Carter gave the Cougars the necessary tools to make the offense click. In recent years, not only has BYU not had a dangerous passer, passing has become a liability in Provo. Coach Kalani Sitake may have just one more year to turn things around before finding himself on another mission. The season may depend on whether the offensive line can keep senior Tanner Mangum upright and out of the hospital, something it has failed doing the previous two seasons. He is recovering from an Achilles’ injury and will lack a lot of mobility.

Speaking of passing, that word is not in the dictionary in West Point, NY. Army attempted just five passes per game last year, and completed just over 1 1/2 of those attempts per game. Still, with only 28 passing yards per game, the Black Knights averaged almost 31 points per game by leading the nation in rushing yardage. The 10-3 season was the best at West Point since 1996. The Cadets will take a small backward step this year with a decimated offense needing to rebuild, but the defense could limit opponents to 330 yards and 20 points per game this year.

Mark Whipple is a quarterback whisperer. He has a long history of getting the most out of his passers. Throughout his career, Whipple has helped tutor Greg Landry during his USFL stint, Ben Roethlisberger with the Steelers (including a Super Bowl Championship season), and Donovan McNabb when he threw for the most yards in his career and led the Eagles to the NFC Championship Game. As offensive coordinator at Miami in 2009, he got the most out of Jacory Harris. So, it should be no surprise that the man that took Massachusetts to a I-AA championship his first go around in Amherst, is on the verge of making the FBS version of the Minutemen into a bowl-eligible team. UMass finished 4-8 last year with enough near misses to make a bowl game if they had gone the other way. This year, with experienced quarterback Andrew Ford, we expect the Minutemen to crash through the barrier and enjoy a won-loss record on the plus side of .500. If Ford stays healthy for 12 games, he should crash through the 3,500 passing yard barrier and make a run at 4,000. He has talented and experienced receivers returning as well as the most experienced and talented offensive line protecting him since he arrived on campus. UMass should score around 35-38 points per game, and while the defense is still quite suspect, the Minutemen should win seven games and receive their first bowl bid since they played in the 1972 Boardwalk Bowl.

New Mexico State left the Sun Belt on good footing, as the Aggies finished with a bowl win and winning season in their SBC swan song. The Sun Belt was never a good fit for this team; this school would be an excellent addition to the Mountain West, where rival New Mexico already plays, or Conference USA, where rival UTEP plays. Coach Doug Martin has enough key talent returning on both sides of the ball to return to a bowl in 2018, but they will have to stay healthy in the back half of their schedule after facing a brutal beginning. NMSU will play on August 25 against Wyoming and a short five days later, play at Minnesota. Then, on September 8, the Aggies have another tough road game at Utah State.  They could 0-3 to start the season.

Liberty finished 6-5 in their final year in FCS football last season. The Flames beat Baylor, so they will not be intimidated this year when they line up against teams like Old Dominion, North Texas, and New Mexico. Coach Turner Gill’s team won last year with a brilliant passing attack, as they frequently outscored their opponents in their wins. They gave up more than 40 points in two of those wins! In Liberty’s favor, most of their brilliant offense returns in 2018, but the schedule is about 20 points stronger per game this year than last. Don’t expect Liberty to contend for a winning season in year one in the FBS.

There is no FBS Independents media group that meets and hears speeches from the coaches and then interviews players before voting in a preseason poll. Rather than leave this section empty, I will show you how a conglomerate of 10 of my peers believe the teams will finish.

Independents 1st Place Votes
1. Notre Dame 10 60
2. Army 0 47
3. BYU 0 43
4. New Mexico State 0 26
5. Massachusetts 0 24
6. Liberty 0 10

The PiRate Ratings mostly agree with these other 10 very successful computer geniuses, and where we don’t it is probably because they are correct, and we are not.

FBS Independents
Team Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 0-0 125.6 121.5 123.7 123.6
BYU 0-0 95.9 97.0 96.3 96.4
Army 0-0 95.6 96.4 95.5 95.9
Massachusetts 0-0 89.8 92.4 92.0 91.4
N. Mexico St. 0-0 82.0 85.3 82.5 83.3
Liberty 0-0 75.2 73.9 74.2 74.5
Independents Averages 94.0 94.4 94.0 94.2

New Coaches
There are no new coaches among the six independents. Sitake is most definitely on the hot seat at BYU, and if something were to happen in South Bend, and the Irish terribly under-perform, Brian Kelly might be in trouble. However, we cannot see a scenario happening with Notre Dame this year, and the Irish have a better chance of going 12-0 than 6-6.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

Independents Record
Notre Dame 12-0
Army 8-4
New Mexico State 7-5
Massachusetts 7-5
BYU 6-6
Liberty 2-10

Bowl Tie-ins
This year, no Independents have a definite bowl contract. Notre Dame counts toward the ACC when bowls pick representative, and they can be selected ahead of any ACC rival if they have at least one win fewer than the ACC alternative. In other words, if Duke is 9-3 and the Irish are 8-4, bowls can take Notre Dame ahead of Wake Forest. If Duke is 10-2 and Notre Dame is 8-4, then Duke must be selected before Notre Dame.
BYU has an agreement with ESPN that if the Cougars become bowl eligible, ESPN will place them in one of their televised bowls as an at-large opponent.

Liberty is not eligible for a bowl this season, but there are technicalities involved that could send the Flames to the Cure Bowl.
New Mexico State has a secondary bowl tie-in with the New Mexico Bowl.

Coming Tomorrow–The American Athletic Conference

March 6, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 6, 2018

PiRate Rating Spreads for Tuesday’s Conference Tournament Games

Home Team Visitor  
or Higher Seed Lower Seed Spread
Vermont Stony Brook 14.1
UMBC Hartford 4.7
Boston College Georgia Tech 3.5
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 16.4
Syracuse Wake Forest 3.3
North Dakota Montana St. 0.7
Northern Colorado Northern Arizona 14.8
Idaho St. Southern Utah 2.9
Portland St. Sacramento St. 9.1
Charleston Northeastern -0.5
Wright St. Cleveland St. 9.8
Howard Florida A&M 2.3
UNC-Central Coppin St. 7.8
Morgan St. South Carolina St. 5.2
Wagner Long Island 8.7
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Mississippi Valley St. 9.3
Southern Jackson St. 5.9
Texas Southern Alabama St. 12.0
Prairie View A&M Alcorn St. 9.6
South Dakota St. South Dakota -1.4
Gonzaga BYU 9.4

Games in RED are Championship Games for NCAA Tournament Bids

Teams That Won Conference Championships Last Night

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Iona 83 Fairfield 71
Southern Conference Tournament
UNC-Greensboro 62 East Tennessee St. 47

List of Teams In the Field as of Tuesday Morning

Team Bid Conf. W-L
Iona AUTO MAAC 20-13
Lipscomb AUTO A-SUN 23-9
Loyola (Chi.) AUTO MVC 28-5
Michigan AUTO BTen 28-7
Murray St. AUTO OVC 26-5
Radford AUTO B-South 22-12
UNC-Greensboro AUTO SoCon 27-7

 

NCAA Bids Up For Grabs Tonight

All Times EST

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Championship–March 6  
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Charleston #2 Northeastern CBSSN

 

Horizon League Tournament
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #2 Wright St. #8 Cleveland St. ESPN

Note: Cleveland State comes into this game tonight sporting a 12-22 record.  If they upset Wright State (24-9), the Vikings will most likely become one of the 16-seeds that must play a First Four game in Dayton.

Northeast Conference Tournament
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Wagner #4 Long Island ESPN2

 

Summit League Tournament
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:00 PM #1 South Dakota St. #2 South Dakota ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Gonzaga #3 BYU ESPN

Note:  BYU is a potential Bid Stealer.  If the Cougars upset the Bulldogs tonight at Orleans Arena, then the West Coast Conference would most likely send three teams instead of two to the NCAA Tournament, bursting the bubble of one of the teams on the fence, such as Alabama, Kansas St., USC, or UCLA.

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Brooklyn
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #12 Boston College #13 Georgia Tech ESPN2
2:00 PM #10 Notre Dame #15 Pittsburgh ESPN2
7:00 PM #11 Syracuse #14 Wake Forest ESPNU
       
Second Round–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 Florida St. #9 Louisville ESPN
2:00 PM #5 North Carolina St. Boston Coll. or Ga. Tech ESPN
7:00 PM #7 Virginia Tech N.Dame or Pitt ESPN2
9:00 PM #6 North Carolina Syracuse or Wake Forest ESPN2
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Virginia Fla. St. or Louis. ESPN
2:00 PM #4 Clemson NCSt/BC/GaT ESPN
7:00 PM #2 Duke VaT/N.Dame/Pitt ESPN
9:00 PM #3 Miami (Fla.) UNC/Syr/Wake For ESPN
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM UVa/FSU/Louis. Clem/NCSt/BC/GaT TBA
9:00 PM Duke/VaT/ND/Pitt Mia.UNC/Syr/WF TBA
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
8:30 PM     ESPN

Note: #10 Seed Notre Dame is a team to monitor in this tournament.  With star forward Bonzie Colson returning to the lineup after missing 15 games, the Irish could sneak into the semifinals of this tournament.  They should quickly dismiss hapless Pittsburgh today.  The game with Virginia Tech tomorrow would most likely be a must-win for Notre Dame’s at-large hopes.  If the Irish win that game, they would face Duke in the quarterfinals on Thursday.

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Reno, NV
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 North Dakota #9 Montana St. Pluto tv
2:30 PM #5 Northern Colorado #12 Northern Arizona Pluto tv
5:30 PM #7 Idaho St. #10 Southern Utah Pluto tv
8:00 PM #6 Portland St. #11 Sacramento St. Pluto tv
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Montana UND or MSU Pluto tv
2:30 PM #4 Weber St. UNC or NAU Pluto tv
5:30 PM #2 Idaho ISU or S. Utah Pluto tv
8:00 PM #3 Eastern Washington PSU or Sac St. Pluto tv
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM Mont/UND/MSU Web/UNC/NAU Pluto tv
8:00 PM Ida/ISU/S.Utah EWU/PSU/Sac. St. Pluto tv
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM     ESPNU

Note: Montana comes into the tournament riding a 16-2 record in conference play.  The Grizzlies sport the best defense in the league, including the top ball-hawking perimeter players.

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
First Round at Higher Seed, Semifinal and Final Round in Houston
Grambling and Alabama A&M are ineligible due to low APR Scores
All Times CST
       
Quarterfinals–March 6
Time Home Visitors TV
7:30 PM #1 Arkansas-Pine Bluff #8 Mississippi Valley St. TBA
7:30 PM #4 Southern U #5 Jackson St. TBA
8:00 PM #3 Texas Southern #6 Alabama St. TBA
8:30 PM #2 Prairie View A&M #7 Alcorn St. TBA
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM UAPB or MVSU Southern or JSU TBA
8:30 PM PVAM or Alcorn TSU or ASU TBA
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
3:00 PM     ESPN2

Note:  There is no complete team in this tournament.  The best team in the league, Grambling, is ineligible due to low APR Scores.  Prairie View is the only team with a chance of getting its record over .500 by winning the tournament, and then the won-loss record would be 18-17.  Unless 4, 20-loss mid-major teams win conference tournaments, the automatic bid will go to a team that must quickly head to Dayton for a First Four game.

Conference Tournaments Continuing Today

America East Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 6  All Times EST
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Vermont #5 Stony Brook ESPN3
7:30 PM #2 UMBC #3 Hartford ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Home Visitors TV
11:00 AM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN2

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
First Round–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM #8 Howard #9 Florida A&M ESPN3
6:30 PM #6 UNC-Central #11 Coppin St. ESPN3
9:00 PM #7 Morgan St. #10 South Carolina St. ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 7
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #1 Hampton Howard or FAMU ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Bethune-Cookman MSU or SCSU ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #3 Savannah St. UNCC or Coppin ESPN3
8:00 PM #4 North Carolina A&T #5 Norfolk St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 9
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Hampton/Howard/FAMU NCAT/Norfolk St ESPN3
8:00 PM BCU/MSU/SCSU Sav/UNCC/Coppin ESPN3
       
Championship–March 10
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     ESPN2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 6-7, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:02 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (multi-bid leagues only)

Saturday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Connecticut East Carolina 14.7
Memphis Tulsa -0.9
Clemson Louisville 6.7
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 15.1
Virginia North Carolina 4.3
Syracuse Notre Dame 0.2
Boston College Wake Forest 3.1
North Carolina St. Duke -11.4
Baylor Texas 2.8
Texas Tech Kansas St. 10.1
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 8.0
West Virginia Oklahoma 4.4
TCU Kansas -1.3
Providence Xavier -4.7
Georgetown Creighton -5.9
St. John’s DePaul 7.6
Butler Seton Hall 2.2
Villanova Marquette 14.6
Michigan Illinois 9.7
Purdue Nebraska 18.2
Minnesota Indiana 11.4
Air Force Nevada -15.5
Colorado St. Fresno St. -4.5
Wyoming Boise St. -2.4
New Mexico San Jose St. 11.3
UNLV Utah St. 9.7
Colorado Arizona -8.3
Washington St. Washington -0.1
California UCLA -6.6
Georgia Alabama 0.7
Missouri Florida 2.6
Texas A&M LSU 8.6
Ole Miss Mississippi St. 1.3
Auburn Arkansas 1.6
South Carolina Vanderbilt 2.5
Tennessee Kentucky 4.1
Pepperdine San Francisco -3.7
Loyola Marymount Gonzaga -17.2
Pacific BYU -6.0
Santa Clara Portland 4.4
Saint Mary’s San Diego 13.9
Sunday’s Games    
Home Team Visitor Spread
Central Florida Temple 1.5
Wichita St. South Florida 27.0
Cincinnati SMU 6.6
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 0.5
Ohio St. Michigan St. -6.7
Maryland Iowa 8.2
Utah Arizona St. -2.4
Stanford USC -5.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Conf.
1 Michigan St. 119.3 BTEN
2 Duke 119.1 ACC
3 Villanova 119.0 BIGE
4 Purdue 118.2 BTEN
5 Kansas 116.7 B12
6 Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
7 Texas Tech 114.8 B12
8 Virginia 114.7 ACC
9 North Carolina 114.4 ACC
10 Oklahoma 114.0 B12
11 Xavier 113.9 BIGE
12 West Virginia 113.9 B12
13 Wichita St. 113.8 AAC
14 Arizona 113.5 P12
15 Arkansas 112.9 SEC
16 Cincinnati 112.8 AAC
17 Arizona St. 112.8 P12
18 Creighton 112.7 BIGE
19 Notre Dame 112.1 ACC
20 TCU 111.9 B12
21 Florida St. 111.9 ACC
22 Seton Hall 111.5 BIGE
23 Saint Mary’s 111.3 WCC
24 Clemson 111.2 ACC
25 Florida 111.2 SEC

PiRate Ratings By Conference (multi-bid conferences only)

Team PiRate Conf.
Wichita St. 113.8 AAC
Cincinnati 112.8 AAC
SMU 110.2 AAC
Houston 108.8 AAC
Temple 105.4 AAC
UCF 103.4 AAC
Tulsa 102.1 AAC
Tulane 101.2 AAC
Connecticut 100.5 AAC
Memphis 97.7 AAC
South Florida 90.8 AAC
East Carolina 89.8 AAC
Duke 119.1 ACC
Virginia 114.7 ACC
North Carolina 114.4 ACC
Notre Dame 112.1 ACC
Florida St. 111.9 ACC
Clemson 111.2 ACC
Miami FL 109.9 ACC
Virginia Tech 108.9 ACC
Louisville 108.5 ACC
Syracuse 108.3 ACC
Wake Forest 106.3 ACC
Boston College 105.4 ACC
North Carolina St. 105.2 ACC
Georgia Tech 100.1 ACC
Pittsburgh 97.3 ACC
Kansas 116.7 B12
Texas Tech 114.8 B12
Oklahoma 114.0 B12
West Virginia 113.9 B12
TCU 111.9 B12
Baylor 109.5 B12
Texas 109.2 B12
Kansas St. 108.2 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.1 B12
Iowa St. 103.1 B12
Villanova 119.0 BIGE
Xavier 113.9 BIGE
Creighton 112.7 BIGE
Seton Hall 111.5 BIGE
Butler 109.7 BIGE
Marquette 108.4 BIGE
St. John’s 106.1 BIGE
Providence 105.7 BIGE
Georgetown 103.3 BIGE
DePaul 102.0 BIGE
Michigan St. 119.3 BTEN
Purdue 118.2 BTEN
Michigan 110.3 BTEN
Maryland 109.4 BTEN
Ohio St. 109.1 BTEN
Minnesota 108.9 BTEN
Penn St. 108.0 BTEN
Northwestern 106.3 BTEN
Wisconsin 105.2 BTEN
Iowa 105.2 BTEN
Illinois 104.6 BTEN
Nebraska 104.0 BTEN
Indiana 101.5 BTEN
Rutgers 100.8 BTEN
Nevada 110.9 MWC
Boise St. 107.4 MWC
San Diego St. 107.2 MWC
UNLV 106.9 MWC
Fresno St. 104.6 MWC
Wyoming 101.5 MWC
Utah St. 100.7 MWC
New Mexico 99.6 MWC
Colorado St. 96.6 MWC
Air Force 92.4 MWC
San Jose St. 91.8 MWC
Arizona 113.5 P12
Arizona St. 112.8 P12
USC 108.8 P12
Oregon 107.7 P12
UCLA 107.3 P12
Utah 106.4 P12
Washington 102.3 P12
Colorado 101.2 P12
Stanford 100.8 P12
Oregon St. 100.6 P12
Washington St. 99.8 P12
California 97.7 P12
Arkansas 112.9 SEC
Florida 111.2 SEC
Tennessee 111.0 SEC
Auburn 111.0 SEC
Kentucky 110.9 SEC
Texas A&M 110.8 SEC
Missouri 109.8 SEC
Alabama 107.9 SEC
LSU 106.2 SEC
Mississippi St. 105.3 SEC
Georgia 105.1 SEC
Vanderbilt 105.1 SEC
Mississippi 104.1 SEC
South Carolina 104.1 SEC
Gonzaga 115.4 WCC
Saint Mary’s 111.3 WCC
BYU 105.9 WCC
San Diego 101.4 WCC
San Francisco 99.7 WCC
Pacific 96.9 WCC
Loyola Marymount 95.2 WCC
Santa Clara 94.0 WCC
Pepperdine 93.0 WCC
Portland 92.6 WCC

This Week’s Estimate of Who’s In The Big Dance

Note–This is not our Bracketology Gurus report.  We expect that our gurus will begin sending us this data by the first of February.  Until then, this is our best guess as to who would be in the field if it began today.

America East

Vermont 1-0/10-5

American

Cincinnati 2-0/13-2

Wichita St. 2-0/12-2

SMU 2-1/12-4

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island 2-0/10-3

Atlantic Coast

Duke 1-1/13-1

North Carolina 1-1/12-3

Virginia  2-0/13-1

Miami (Fla.) 1-1/12-2

Clemson 2-0/13-1

Florida St. 1-1/12-2

Notre Dame 2-0/12-3

Louisville 1-0/11-3

Syracuse 1-1/12-3

Atlantic Sun

Florida Gulf Coast 0-0/9-8

Big 12

West Virginia 2-0/13-1

Oklahoma 2-0/12-1

Kansas 1-1/11-3

TCU 1-1/13-1

Texas Tech 2-0/13-1

Texas 1-1/10-4

Baylor 0-2/10-4

Big East

Xavier 3-0/15-1

Seton Hall 2-0/13-2

Villanova 1-1/13-1

Creighton 2-1/12-3

Butler 2-1/12-4

Big Sky

Montana 3-0/10-5

Big South

Radford 2-0/9-6

Big Ten

Michigan St. 3-0/15-1

Purdue 3-0/14-2

Ohio St. 3-0/12-4

Michigan 2-1/13-3

Minnesota 2-1/13-3

Maryland 2-2/13-4

Big West

UC-Davis 1-0/10-5

Colonial

Charleston 2-0/11-3

Conference USA

Middle Tennessee 2-0/10-4

Horizon

Northern Kentucky 2-0/9-5

Ivy

Pennsylvania 0-0/9-5

Metro Atlantic

Canisius 2-0/8-7

Mid-American

Central Michigan 1-0/12-2

Mideastern Athletic

UNC-Central 1-0/7-8

Missouri Valley

Missouri St. 3-0/13-3

Mountain West

Nevada 3-0/14-3

Boise St. 3-0/13-2

Northeast

Robert Morris 3-0/9-7

Ohio Valley

Belmont 3-0/11-5

Pac-12

Arizona 2-0/12-3

Arizona St. 0-2/12-2

UCLA 2-1/11-4

USC 2-1/11-5

Patriot

Navy 1-1/10-5

Southeastern

Kentucky 2-0/12-2

Florida 2-0/10-4

Auburn 1-0/13-1

Texas A&M 0-2/11-3

Arkansas 1-1/11-3

Missouri 1-0/11-3

Mississippi St. 1-0/13-1

Southern

UNC-Greensboro 1-0/10-4

Southland

Stephen F. Austin 1-1/12-3

Southwestern Athletic

Jackson St. 2-0/5-10

Summit

South Dakota 2-0/14-4

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette 3-0/13-3

West Coast

Gonzaga 3-0/13-3

Saint Mary’s 3-0/14-2

Western Athletic

New Mexico St. 0-0/12-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 21-25, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Kent St. 16.2 16.9 16.6
Eastern Michigan Bowling Green 17.7 16.8 17.7
Ball St. Miami (O) -20.5 -20.5 -21.0
Mississippi St. Ole Miss 11.6 12.9 12.7
TCU Baylor 24.2 21.2 24.4
Toledo Western Michigan 7.5 8.1 8.3
Virginia Virginia Tech -13.7 -14.2 -13.2
Central Michigan Northern Illinois 1.1 1.8 0.8
Buffalo Ohio U -9.4 -8.6 -8.4
Arkansas Missouri -7.9 -6.6 -7.6
San Diego St. New Mexico 20.5 20.7 21.2
Houston Navy 4.2 3.6 3.9
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) -16.3 -14.9 -15.8
Nebraska Iowa -9.3 -9.1 -9.0
Troy Texas St. 24.9 23.0 25.2
Central Florida South Florida 6.8 8.8 7.8
Florida Int’l. Western Kentucky -2.7 -2.2 -2.7
Texas Texas Tech 12.5 12.7 13.8
UCLA California 1.6 3.1 2.6
Cincinnati Connecticut 2.6 2.6 3.2
Syracuse Boston College -1.6 -3.0 -2.2
Rutgers Michigan St. -8.2 -9.5 -9.5
Purdue Indiana -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
Michigan Ohio St. -13.6 -11.4 -14.8
North Carolina St. North Carolina 14.0 14.1 14.7
Wake Forest Duke 5.9 4.8 7.1
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -6.8 -5.8 -6.5
Tennessee Vanderbilt 4.4 3.6 3.9
Kansas St. Iowa St. 2.3 2.1 1.3
Kentucky Louisville -6.0 -5.9 -7.1
Georgia Tech Georgia -13.3 -15.3 -15.0
Maryland Penn St. -24.0 -21.5 -24.8
Illinois Northwestern -21.9 -20.0 -23.1
Rice North Texas -12.7 -12.6 -13.2
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -27.1 -26.5 -28.5
Air Force Utah St. -0.3 0.9 -0.3
Marshall Southern Miss. 8.0 8.3 9.2
Nevada UNLV 3.8 4.0 4.7
Washington Washington St. 11.8 11.8 12.1
San Jose St. Wyoming -26.8 -25.4 -27.0
Utah Colorado 2.7 4.6 4.7
Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas St. -8.3 -8.7 -10.3
Middle Tennessee Old Dominion 6.9 5.8 7.7
Minnesota Wisconsin -19.4 -16.0 -19.2
Stanford Notre Dame 5.3 4.8 4.3
South Carolina Clemson -18.2 -16.7 -18.4
LSU Texas A&M 11.2 11.1 12.2
Fresno St. Boise St. -8.2 -7.7 -8.0
SMU Tulane 6.9 7.1 6.8
Oklahoma St. Kansas 41.7 37.8 43.5
Arizona St. Arizona 0.6 1.2 1.3
Oklahoma West Virginia 18.4 16.8 19.0
Oregon Oregon St. 16.6 14.9 17.3
New Mexico St. Idaho 9.9 7.5 9.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Georgia Southern 8.3 7.9 9.0
Tulsa Temple 5.1 3.9 4.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA -0.2 -0.5 -0.5
Memphis East Carolina 27.0 24.9 27.7
UAB UTEP 16.1 13.1 17.8
Auburn Alabama -7.3 -5.9 -6.0
Florida Florida St. -8.9 -8.4 -7.9
Hawaii BYU -3.4 -2.2 -3.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Retro Rankings

Based on what the teams have done for the entire season and not forward looking

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 TCU
14 Washington
15 Mississippi St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Washington St.
18 Michigan
19 Oklahoma St.
20 Memphis
21 Michigan St.
22 Stanford
23 Northwestern
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Wake Forest
28 Iowa St.
29 Iowa
30 South Florida
31 South Carolina
32 Boston College
33 Texas A&M
34 Louisville
35 Toledo
36 San Diego St.
37 Texas
38 Florida Atlantic
39 Oregon
40 Georgia Tech
41 West Virginia
42 Arizona
43 Navy
44 Florida St.
45 Arizona St.
46 Purdue
47 Kentucky
48 Northern Illinois
49 Missouri
50 Fresno St.
51 Kansas St.
52 Indiana
53 UCLA
54 Troy
55 Houston
56 Army
57 Ohio
58 Texas Tech
59 Virginia
60 SMU
61 Utah
62 California
63 North Texas
64 Duke
65 Florida
66 Wyoming
67 Syracuse
68 Maryland
69 Minnesota
70 Marshall
71 Ole Miss
72 Colorado
73 Western Michigan
74 Nebraska
75 Colorado St.
76 Central Michigan
77 Tulane
78 Pittsburgh
79 Utah St.
80 Arkansas St.
81 Temple
82 Tennessee
83 Akron
84 Arkansas
85 Southern Miss.
86 Florida Int’l.
87 Appalachian St.
88 North Carolina
89 Rutgers
90 UAB
91 Vanderbilt
92 UTSA
93 Georgia St.
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Buffalo
96 Air Force
97 Western Kentucky
98 Louisiana Tech
99 Middle Tennessee
100 Miami (O)
101 UNLV
102 Tulsa
103 Cincinnati
104 Connecticut
105 East Carolina
106 Massachusetts
107 Old Dominion
108 UL-Monroe
109 UL-Lafayette
110 New Mexico St.
111 Baylor
112 South Alabama
113 Illinois
114 BYU
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico
117 Idaho
118 Oregon St.
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Coastal Carolina
124 Georgia Southern
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

PiRate Ratings For This Week

Forward Looking Predictive Ratings totally unrelated to rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
2 Ohio St. 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
3 Auburn 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
4 Clemson 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
5 Georgia 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
6 Oklahoma 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
7 Penn St. 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
8 Miami 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
9 Washington 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
10 Wisconsin 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
13 U S C 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
14 Stanford 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
15 Virginia Tech 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
16 L S U 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
17 Notre Dame 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
18 Florida St. 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
19 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
20 Louisville 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
21 Michigan 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
22 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
23 Washington St. 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
24 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
25 Texas 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
26 Northwestern 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
27 Wake Forest 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
28 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
29 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
30 Iowa 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
31 Georgia Tech 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
32 Memphis 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
33 West Virginia 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
34 Boston College 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
35 Missouri 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Texas A&M 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
38 Duke 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
39 S. Carolina 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
40 Oregon 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
41 Kentucky 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
43 Arizona 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
44 Indiana 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
45 Utah 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
46 Arizona St. 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
47 Florida 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
48 Pittsburgh 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
49 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
50 Colorado 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
51 Purdue 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
52 Syracuse 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
53 California 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
54 Ole Miss 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
55 U C L A 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Texas Tech 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
57 Virginia 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
58 San Diego St. 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
59 Toledo 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Houston 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
62 Minnesota 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
63 Navy 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
64 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
65 Florida Atlantic 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
66 Army 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
67 Tennessee 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
68 Ohio U 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
69 Wyoming 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
70 Nebraska 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
74 SMU 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
75 Vanderbilt 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
76 Western Michigan 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
77 Fresno St. 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
79 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
80 Tulsa 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
81 Troy 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
84 Utah St. 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
85 Tulane 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
86 Temple 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
87 Oregon St. 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
88 Rutgers 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
89 Appalachian St. 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
90 Marshall 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
91 Air Force 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
92 W. Kentucky 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
93 Massachusetts 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
94 U T S A 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Nevada 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
97 Illinois 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
98 BYU 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
99 Akron 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
100 N. Texas 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
101 Middle Tennessee 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
102 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
103 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
104 U N L V 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
105 Louisiana Tech 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
106 East Carolina 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Florida Int’l. 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
109 Connecticut 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
110 Cincinnati 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
111 New Mexico 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
112 UL-Lafayette 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
113 Georgia St. 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
114 Old Dominion 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
115 UL-Monroe 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
116 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
117 Hawaii 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
118 UAB 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
120 Bowling Green 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
121 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
122 Georgia Southern 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
125 Rice 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
126 Coastal Carolina 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
127 Charlotte 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
128 San Jose St. 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
129 U T E P 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 7-0 10-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-1 9-1 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 3-4 5-6 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
East Carolina 2-5 3-8 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
Connecticut 2-5 3-8 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
Cincinnati 1-6 3-8 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 6-1 9-1 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
Houston 4-3 6-4 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
Navy 4-3 6-4 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
SMU 3-4 6-5 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
Tulsa 1-6 2-9 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
Tulane 3-4 5-6 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 10-1 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
Florida St. 3-5 4-6 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
N. Carolina St. 5-2 7-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Louisville 4-4 7-4 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
Wake Forest 4-3 7-4 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
Boston College 3-4 6-5 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
Syracuse 2-5 4-7 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-0 10-0 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
Virginia Tech 4-3 8-3 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-5 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
Duke 2-5 5-6 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
Pittsburgh 2-5 4-7 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
Virginia 3-4 6-5 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
N. Carolina 1-6 3-8 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 7-1 10-1 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
Oklahoma St. 5-3 8-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 6-2 9-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Texas 5-3 6-5 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
Iowa State 5-3 7-4 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Kansas St. 4-4 6-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-3 7-4 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
Texas Tech 2-6 5-6 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
Baylor 1-7 1-10 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-8 1-10 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 9-2 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
Penn St. 6-2 9-2 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
Michigan 5-3 8-3 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
Indiana 2-6 5-6 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
Michigan St. 6-2 8-3 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
Maryland 2-6 4-7 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
Rutgers 3-5 4-7 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 8-0 11-0 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
Northwestern 6-2 8-3 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
Iowa 3-5 6-5