Note: Charlotte and Connecticut have concluded their regular seasons
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
#
Team
Rating
1
Georgia
133.3
2
Ohio St.
132.4
3
Alabama
128.6
4
Michigan
126.5
5
Penn St.
124.1
6
Tennessee
119.9
7
Clemson
119.3
8
Kansas St.
119.3
9
Florida St.
119.1
10
Texas
118.9
11
L S U
118.7
12
T C U
118.6
13
Utah
117.7
14
Notre Dame
116.4
15
Oregon
116.3
16
Minnesota
115.0
17
Iowa
114.8
18
Mississippi St.
113.9
19
Arkansas
113.9
20
U S C
113.8
21
Baylor
113.7
22
Louisville
113.7
23
Oregon St.
113.1
24
Wisconsin
113.0
25
Ole Miss
112.6
26
Oklahoma
112.2
27
Purdue
112.1
28
Illinois
112.1
29
Washington
111.8
30
U C L A
111.1
31
Florida
110.0
32
Texas Tech
109.6
33
Maryland
109.4
34
Wake Forest
109.0
35
Oklahoma St.
108.7
36
South Carolina
108.7
37
Pittsburgh
108.7
38
NC State
108.6
39
Michigan St.
108.4
40
Kentucky
108.3
41
Iowa St.
108.1
42
Cincinnati
108.1
43
Washington St.
107.8
44
North Carolina
107.4
45
Auburn
106.9
46
Tulane
106.4
47
Texas A&M
106.4
48
UCF
105.5
49
Boise St.
105.4
50
Houston
104.2
51
Syracuse
103.7
52
BYU
103.2
53
Missouri
103.1
54
West Virginia
103.0
55
U T S A
102.1
56
Air Force
102.0
57
Nebraska
101.8
58
Kansas
101.8
59
SMU
101.2
60
Fresno St.
101.1
61
Miami (Fla.)
100.7
62
Duke
100.5
63
Arizona St.
100.1
64
Liberty
100.0
65
East Carolina
99.8
66
Memphis
99.6
67
W. Kentucky
99.0
68
James Madison
98.6
69
Indiana
98.5
70
Appalachian St.
98.5
71
Arizona
98.3
72
U A B
97.7
73
California
97.7
74
Stanford
97.0
75
Northwestern
96.9
76
Marshall
96.6
77
Vanderbilt
96.5
78
Georgia St.
96.3
79
Troy
96.2
80
South Alabama
95.9
81
Navy
95.9
82
Toledo
95.8
83
Rutgers
95.5
84
Army
95.5
85
Virginia
95.2
86
San Diego St.
95.2
87
Virginia Tech
94.7
88
Coastal Carolina
94.7
89
Ohio
94.7
90
Georgia Tech
94.2
91
Louisiana
93.5
92
San Jose St.
93.4
93
Boston College
92.9
94
North Texas
92.7
95
Tulsa
92.3
96
Buffalo
91.0
97
N. Illinois
90.7
98
Central Mich.
90.4
99
Ga. Southern
90.3
100
Utah St.
90.2
101
Miami (Ohio)
89.9
102
Wyoming
89.8
103
Kent St.
89.6
104
Florida Atlantic
89.0
105
Southern Miss.
88.1
106
Western Mich.
87.7
107
USF
87.6
108
Eastern Mich.
87.5
109
Middle Tennessee
87.1
110
Old Dominion
86.7
111
Ball St.
86.3
112
U T E P
86.1
113
U N L V
85.9
114
Bowling Green
85.8
115
Connecticut
85.4
116
UL-Monroe
83.5
117
Texas St.
83.4
118
Colorado
82.8
119
Colorado St.
82.1
120
Temple
82.1
121
Arkansas St.
81.4
122
Nevada
79.6
123
Rice
79.0
124
Louisiana Tech
78.8
125
New Mexico
76.5
126
Hawaii
75.9
127
Charlotte
75.7
128
New Mexico St.
75.5
129
Akron
75.3
130
Massachusetts
72.5
131
Florida Int’l.
63.9
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Cincinnati
108.3
107.5
108.4
108.1
Tulane
106.4
106.1
106.7
106.4
UCF
105.1
105.7
105.6
105.5
Houston
104.5
103.8
104.3
104.2
SMU
101.4
100.7
101.5
101.2
East Carolina
99.6
99.3
100.4
99.8
Memphis
99.6
99.8
99.3
99.6
Navy
96.0
95.8
95.9
95.9
Tulsa
92.8
92.0
92.0
92.3
USF
88.4
87.4
87.2
87.6
Temple
81.9
83.1
81.2
82.1
AAC
98.6
98.3
98.4
98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Clemson
119.3
119.1
119.6
119.3
Florida St.
119.1
118.9
119.3
119.1
Louisville
113.9
113.6
113.6
113.7
Wake Forest
109.2
108.9
108.9
109.0
NC State
109.3
108.5
108.1
108.6
Syracuse
104.6
103.4
103.1
103.7
Boston College
93.2
93.6
91.8
92.9
Coastal Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Pittsburgh
109.6
108.7
107.9
108.7
North Carolina
107.8
107.7
106.8
107.4
Miami (Fla.)
101.4
100.6
100.1
100.7
Duke
100.2
101.9
99.4
100.5
Virginia
95.8
95.9
94.0
95.2
Virginia Tech
95.1
95.3
93.7
94.7
Georgia Tech
94.9
94.6
93.3
94.2
ACC
105.2
105.0
104.2
104.8
Big 12 Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Kansas St.
119.8
118.7
119.4
119.3
Texas
119.7
118.8
118.3
118.9
T C U
119.2
118.0
118.7
118.6
Baylor
114.3
113.1
113.7
113.7
Oklahoma
112.6
111.7
112.4
112.2
Texas Tech
109.8
108.9
110.2
109.6
Oklahoma St.
109.5
108.0
108.7
108.7
Iowa St.
108.5
107.9
108.0
108.1
West Virginia
103.5
102.9
102.7
103.0
Kansas
103.0
101.6
101.0
101.8
Big 12
112.0
111.0
111.3
111.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Ohio St.
132.9
131.8
132.6
132.4
Michigan
126.9
126.2
126.5
126.5
Penn St.
124.2
124.1
124.1
124.1
Maryland
109.9
109.5
108.9
109.4
Michigan St.
109.5
108.2
107.4
108.4
Indiana
99.4
98.6
97.5
98.5
Rutgers
96.7
95.7
94.2
95.5
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Minnesota
115.5
114.7
114.8
115.0
Iowa
115.5
114.7
114.2
114.8
Wisconsin
113.5
113.1
112.4
113.0
Purdue
113.0
112.2
111.1
112.1
Illinois
112.3
112.6
111.4
112.1
Nebraska
102.4
102.1
101.1
101.8
Northwestern
97.1
97.6
96.0
96.9
Big Ten
112.1
111.5
110.9
111.5
Conference USA
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
U T S A
102.0
101.6
102.7
102.1
W. Kentucky
98.6
98.5
99.9
99.0
U A B
97.5
97.3
98.3
97.7
North Texas
92.3
92.2
93.5
92.7
Florida Atlantic
88.9
89.8
88.4
89.0
Middle Tennessee
86.8
87.4
87.1
87.1
U T E P
86.1
86.2
85.8
86.1
Rice
79.1
79.0
78.9
79.0
Louisiana Tech
78.8
79.6
78.0
78.8
Charlotte
75.4
76.2
75.5
75.7
Florida Int’l.
63.8
65.4
62.6
63.9
CUSA
86.3
86.7
86.4
86.5
FBS Independents
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Notre Dame
116.7
115.6
116.8
116.4
BYU
103.7
102.4
103.5
103.2
Liberty
99.5
100.3
100.1
100.0
Army
95.1
95.6
95.7
95.5
Connecticut
85.3
86.5
84.4
85.4
New Mexico St.
75.0
76.9
74.6
75.5
Massachusetts
72.6
73.6
71.4
72.5
Independents
92.6
93.0
92.4
92.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Ohio
93.2
95.5
95.3
94.7
Buffalo
89.8
91.8
91.5
91.0
Miami (Ohio)
88.9
90.7
90.1
89.9
Kent St.
89.1
90.6
89.1
89.6
Bowling Green
85.7
85.7
85.9
85.8
Akron
75.1
75.9
74.8
75.3
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Toledo
95.4
96.1
95.9
95.8
N. Illinois
90.5
91.0
90.6
90.7
Central Mich.
89.2
90.8
91.2
90.4
Western Mich.
87.1
88.1
87.9
87.7
Eastern Mich.
87.1
87.9
87.4
87.5
Ball St.
85.7
87.0
86.4
86.3
MAC
88.1
89.3
88.8
88.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Boise St.
105.3
104.9
105.9
105.4
Air Force
101.9
101.8
102.4
102.0
Utah St.
90.0
90.2
90.4
90.2
Wyoming
88.8
90.5
90.1
89.8
Colorado St.
81.6
82.5
82.3
82.1
New Mexico
77.1
76.8
75.6
76.5
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Fresno St.
101.0
100.7
101.6
101.1
San Diego St.
95.1
94.8
95.5
95.2
San Jose St.
93.2
93.4
93.6
93.4
U N L V
86.2
85.1
86.4
85.9
Nevada
79.4
80.4
78.9
79.6
Hawaii
75.2
76.3
76.4
75.9
MWC
89.6
89.8
89.9
89.8
Pac-12 Conference
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Utah
117.6
116.9
118.6
117.7
Oregon
116.4
116.0
116.6
116.3
U S C
113.4
113.7
114.4
113.8
Oregon St.
112.9
112.5
113.9
113.1
Washington
111.4
111.6
112.3
111.8
U C L A
110.7
110.6
111.9
111.1
Washington St.
107.3
107.7
108.4
107.8
Arizona St.
100.2
99.6
100.4
100.1
Arizona
98.1
98.1
98.6
98.3
California
97.4
97.4
98.2
97.7
Stanford
98.0
96.2
96.7
97.0
Colorado
83.6
82.2
82.7
82.8
Pac-12
105.6
105.2
106.1
105.6
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Georgia
133.3
132.5
134.0
133.3
Tennessee
119.6
119.7
120.5
119.9
Florida
109.5
110.6
109.9
110.0
South Carolina
108.9
108.6
108.7
108.7
Kentucky
107.9
108.2
108.7
108.3
Missouri
103.2
103.4
102.5
103.1
Vanderbilt
96.4
97.2
95.9
96.5
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Alabama
128.7
127.8
129.2
128.6
L S U
118.8
118.4
118.9
118.7
Mississippi St.
114.8
113.4
113.7
113.9
Arkansas
114.2
113.0
114.5
113.9
Ole Miss
113.4
112.0
112.3
112.6
Auburn
107.5
106.3
106.8
106.9
Texas A&M
106.3
106.5
106.3
106.4
SEC
113.0
112.7
113.0
112.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
James Madison
97.1
98.4
100.3
98.6
Appalachian St.
97.5
98.6
99.2
98.5
Marshall
95.8
96.8
97.0
96.6
Georgia St.
95.7
95.8
97.4
96.3
Coastal Carolina
93.9
94.9
95.3
94.7
Ga. Southern
90.0
90.0
90.8
90.3
Old Dominion
86.7
86.7
86.8
86.7
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Troy
95.4
96.1
97.2
96.2
South Alabama
95.0
95.8
97.0
95.9
Louisiana
92.9
93.3
94.2
93.5
Southern Miss.
87.6
88.1
88.6
88.1
UL-Monroe
83.3
83.7
83.6
83.5
Texas St.
82.7
83.8
83.8
83.4
Arkansas St.
80.8
82.0
81.3
81.4
Sun Belt
91.0
91.7
92.3
91.7
Conference Ratings
#
Conference
Rating
1
Southeastern
112.9
2
Big Ten
111.5
3
Big 12
111.4
4
Pac-12
105.6
5
Atlantic Coast
104.8
6
American Athletic
98.4
7
Independents
92.6
8
Sun Belt
91.7
9
Mountain West
89.8
10
Mid-American
88.7
11
Conference USA
86.5
Bowl Projections
Bowl
Team
Team
Bahamas
UTSA
Ohio
Cure
Marshall
Southern Miss.
Fenway
Duke
Central Florida
New Mexico
Western Kentucky
Wyoming
L.A.
Utah
Boise St.
Lending Tree
Miami (O)
Appalachian St.
Las Vegas
Washington
Ole Miss
Frisco
San Diego St.
Washington St.
Myrtle Beach
BYU
South Alabama
Famous Idaho Potato
Bowling Green
Utah St.
Boca Raton
Connecticut
Air Force
New Orleans
Florida Atlantic
Coastal Carolina
Armed Forces
Houston
North Texas
Independence
SMU
Army
Gasparilla
Syracuse
East Carolina
Hawaii
UAB
San Jose St.
Quick Lane
Eastern Michigan
Liberty
Camellia
Buffalo
Troy
First Responder
Kansas
Louisiana
Birmingham
Memphis
Middle Tennessee
Guaranteed Rate
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Military
Louisville
Tulane
Liberty
Baylor
Missouri
Holiday
North Carolina
Oregon
Texas
Texas Tech
Florida
Pinstripe
Pittsburgh
Minnesota
Cheez-It
Notre Dame
Oklahoma St.
Alamo
Texas
Oregon St.
Duke’s Mayo
Wake Forest
Maryland
Tony the Tiger Sun
North Carolina St.
UCLA
Arizona
Toledo
Fresno St.
Orange
Clemson
Alabama
Music City
Illinois
Kentucky
Sugar
LSU
Kansas St.
TaxSlayer
Florida St.
Arkansas
Peach
Georgia
Michigan
Fiesta
Ohio St.
TCU
Reliaquest (Outback)
Iowa
South Carolina
Citrus
Purdue
Mississippi St.
Cotton
Tennessee
Cincinnati
Rose
USC
Penn St.
National Championship
Georgia
Ohio St.
Note: 82 teams are projected to finish bowl eligible, and there are 82 spots available. There is still a chance that a 5-7 team will be needed if there are less than 82 bowl eligible teams.
Teams that figure to finish 5-7 and have the best APR scores to receive a bid include (in order):
Rice
Iowa State
UNLV
Auburn
Michigan State
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football — November 20, 2022
Note: Our ratings are not reward based on what the teams have done so far. They are predictive in nature, meant to be used for the following week to predict the outcome of games. Thus, a two-loss team is ranked number three over a one-loss team that beat them. Do not confuse power ratings for rankings like the AP, COaches, and Playoff Polls.
#
Team
Rating
1
Ohio St.
132.8
2
Georgia
132.7
3
Alabama
129.2
4
Michigan
127.6
5
Tennessee
125.3
6
Penn St.
119.8
7
L S U
117.5
8
Texas
117.3
9
Clemson
117.2
10
Utah
117.1
11
Oregon
117.1
12
Baylor
116.5
13
T C U
116.2
14
Florida St.
116.0
15
Kansas St.
115.6
16
Notre Dame
115.6
17
Minnesota
115.4
18
Mississippi St.
114.7
19
Wisconsin
114.5
20
Ole Miss
113.5
21
U C L A
113.1
22
Louisville
113.0
23
NC State
112.7
24
Arkansas
112.5
25
U S C
112.3
26
Oklahoma
112.2
27
Iowa
112.0
28
Illinois
111.8
29
Purdue
111.6
30
Michigan St.
110.7
31
Maryland
110.4
32
Oklahoma St.
109.7
33
Kentucky
109.7
34
North Carolina
109.6
35
Oregon St.
109.5
36
Wake Forest
109.2
37
Florida
109.0
38
Cincinnati
108.8
39
Texas Tech
108.7
40
Texas A&M
108.7
41
Iowa St.
108.6
42
Pittsburgh
108.4
43
Washington
108.1
44
South Carolina
107.6
45
Washington St.
107.5
46
UCF
107.4
47
Syracuse
107.3
48
Auburn
105.5
49
Kansas
105.4
50
Missouri
104.7
51
Boise St.
104.2
52
Tulane
104.0
53
SMU
103.8
54
East Carolina
103.3
55
BYU
103.2
56
Liberty
103.1
57
Air Force
102.4
58
West Virginia
102.3
59
Arizona St.
102.0
60
Houston
101.5
61
Nebraska
101.4
62
Miami (Fla.)
101.2
63
Fresno St.
100.6
64
California
98.9
65
Appalachian St.
98.7
66
Duke
98.7
67
W. Kentucky
98.6
68
Stanford
98.5
69
Toledo
98.3
70
Georgia St.
98.1
71
Virginia
98.1
72
Memphis
97.7
73
U T S A
97.5
74
Indiana
97.4
75
Rutgers
97.2
76
U A B
96.6
77
Northwestern
96.3
78
Arizona
96.3
79
Troy
96.3
80
James Madison
95.9
81
Virginia Tech
95.7
82
South Alabama
95.4
83
San Jose St.
95.4
84
Marshall
95.3
85
Army
94.9
86
Coastal Carolina
94.8
87
North Texas
94.0
88
Boston College
93.6
89
Georgia Tech
93.3
90
Tulsa
93.1
91
Ga. Southern
92.6
92
Vanderbilt
92.5
93
Louisiana
92.3
94
Navy
92.2
95
San Diego St.
92.1
96
Ohio
92.1
97
N. Illinois
91.8
98
Buffalo
91.0
99
Central Mich.
90.8
100
Miami (Ohio)
90.5
101
Utah St.
90.2
102
Old Dominion
89.7
103
Wyoming
89.3
104
Florida Atlantic
89.2
105
Southern Miss.
88.2
106
Kent St.
88.0
107
USF
87.8
108
U N L V
87.5
109
Western Mich.
87.1
110
Ball St.
86.9
111
Bowling Green
86.6
112
Eastern Mich.
86.3
113
Colorado
86.0
114
Middle Tennessee
84.5
115
U T E P
84.3
116
Texas St.
83.7
117
Connecticut
83.2
118
Rice
82.3
119
Arkansas St.
82.3
120
Nevada
82.1
121
UL-Monroe
81.9
122
Louisiana Tech
81.9
123
Colorado St.
81.3
124
Temple
80.9
125
New Mexico
78.1
126
Charlotte
74.9
127
Akron
74.9
128
New Mexico St.
74.8
129
Hawaii
73.8
130
Massachusetts
69.7
131
Florida Int’l.
68.1
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Cincinnati
108.8
108.1
109.4
108.8
UCF
107.0
107.6
107.6
107.4
Tulane
104.0
103.8
104.3
104.0
SMU
103.9
103.3
104.2
103.8
East Carolina
103.2
102.8
103.8
103.3
Houston
101.7
100.9
101.8
101.5
Memphis
97.8
98.0
97.3
97.7
Tulsa
93.6
92.8
93.0
93.1
Navy
92.6
92.2
91.9
92.2
USF
88.6
87.6
87.4
87.8
Temple
80.9
82.2
79.6
80.9
AAC
98.4
98.1
98.2
98.2
Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Clemson
117.4
117.0
117.3
117.2
Florida St.
116.2
115.8
115.9
116.0
Louisville
113.2
112.9
112.9
113.0
NC State
113.2
112.4
112.5
112.7
Wake Forest
109.4
109.1
109.0
109.2
Syracuse
108.1
107.0
106.9
107.3
Boston College
93.9
94.6
92.3
93.6
Coastal Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
North Carolina
109.9
109.9
109.2
109.6
Pittsburgh
109.3
108.3
107.6
108.4
Miami (Fla.)
101.9
101.0
100.6
101.2
Duke
98.4
100.3
97.2
98.7
Virginia
98.6
98.7
97.0
98.1
Virginia Tech
96.3
96.2
94.6
95.7
Georgia Tech
94.0
93.8
92.3
93.3
ACC
105.7
105.5
104.7
105.3
Big 12
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Texas
118.1
117.2
116.6
117.3
Baylor
117.0
115.9
116.6
116.5
T C U
116.9
115.6
116.3
116.2
Kansas St.
116.3
115.0
115.5
115.6
Oklahoma
112.6
111.7
112.4
112.2
Oklahoma St.
110.5
108.9
109.7
109.7
Texas Tech
109.0
107.9
109.3
108.7
Iowa St.
108.8
108.5
108.6
108.6
Kansas
106.4
105.2
104.6
105.4
West Virginia
102.8
102.2
102.0
102.3
Big 12
111.8
110.8
111.2
111.3
Big Ten
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Ohio St.
133.1
132.0
133.3
132.8
Michigan
127.9
127.2
127.8
127.6
Penn St.
120.0
119.8
119.7
119.8
Michigan St.
111.6
110.5
110.1
110.7
Maryland
111.0
110.6
109.8
110.4
Indiana
98.4
97.6
96.1
97.4
Rutgers
98.5
97.4
95.7
97.2
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Minnesota
115.9
115.0
115.4
115.4
Wisconsin
114.8
114.6
114.1
114.5
Iowa
112.9
111.9
111.1
112.0
Illinois
112.0
112.5
111.1
111.8
Purdue
112.6
111.6
110.6
111.6
Nebraska
102.1
101.7
100.6
101.4
Northwestern
96.5
97.2
95.3
96.3
Big Ten
112.0
111.4
110.8
111.4
Conference USA
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
W. Kentucky
98.1
98.1
99.7
98.6
U T S A
97.5
96.8
98.0
97.5
U A B
96.4
96.2
97.3
96.6
North Texas
93.5
93.5
94.9
94.0
Florida Atlantic
89.1
90.0
88.6
89.2
Middle Tennessee
84.3
84.7
84.6
84.5
U T E P
84.4
84.3
84.0
84.3
Rice
82.3
82.4
82.3
82.3
Louisiana Tech
81.7
82.8
81.1
81.9
Charlotte
74.7
75.4
74.5
74.9
Florida Int’l.
67.7
69.7
66.8
68.1
CUSA
86.3
86.7
86.5
86.5
Independents
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Notre Dame
115.9
114.6
116.2
115.6
BYU
103.7
102.4
103.5
103.2
Liberty
102.2
103.3
103.7
103.1
Army
94.8
95.0
95.0
94.9
Connecticut
83.2
84.4
81.9
83.2
New Mexico St.
74.3
76.2
73.9
74.8
Massachusetts
70.0
70.8
68.2
69.7
Independents
92.0
92.4
91.8
92.1
Mid-American
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Ohio
90.7
92.9
92.6
92.1
Buffalo
89.7
91.9
91.6
91.0
Miami (Ohio)
89.4
91.4
90.7
90.5
Kent St.
87.5
89.1
87.5
88.0
Bowling Green
86.6
86.4
86.7
86.6
Akron
74.8
75.5
74.3
74.9
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Toledo
97.6
98.6
98.7
98.3
N. Illinois
91.6
92.0
91.8
91.8
Central Mich.
89.5
91.1
91.7
90.8
Western Mich.
86.7
87.5
87.1
87.1
Ball St.
86.4
87.6
86.8
86.9
Eastern Mich.
85.9
86.7
86.2
86.3
MAC
88.0
89.2
88.8
88.7
Mountain West
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Boise St.
104.2
103.6
104.9
104.2
Air Force
102.2
102.0
102.9
102.4
Utah St.
90.0
90.1
90.4
90.2
Wyoming
88.3
90.1
89.6
89.3
Colorado St.
81.0
81.8
81.3
81.3
New Mexico
78.6
78.5
77.2
78.1
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Fresno St.
100.5
100.2
101.2
100.6
San Jose St.
94.9
95.4
95.8
95.4
San Diego St.
92.3
91.7
92.3
92.1
U N L V
87.9
86.5
88.1
87.5
Nevada
81.7
83.1
81.4
82.1
Hawaii
73.2
74.4
74.0
73.8
MWC
89.6
89.8
89.9
89.8
Pac-12
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Utah
116.9
116.3
118.2
117.1
Oregon
117.2
116.7
117.3
117.1
U C L A
112.6
112.6
114.1
113.1
U S C
111.8
112.2
112.8
112.3
Oregon St.
109.6
108.9
110.1
109.5
Washington
107.8
108.0
108.4
108.1
Washington St.
107.0
107.4
108.0
107.5
Arizona St.
102.0
101.5
102.4
102.0
California
98.5
98.7
99.5
98.9
Stanford
99.5
97.7
98.3
98.5
Arizona
96.2
96.1
96.5
96.3
Colorado
86.8
85.3
86.0
86.0
Pac-12
105.5
105.1
106.0
105.5
Southeastern
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Georgia
132.7
131.8
133.6
132.7
Tennessee
125.0
125.0
125.8
125.3
Kentucky
109.3
109.7
110.1
109.7
Florida
108.4
109.7
108.9
109.0
South Carolina
107.7
107.3
107.7
107.6
Missouri
104.8
105.1
104.2
104.7
Vanderbilt
92.6
93.2
91.5
92.5
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Alabama
129.1
128.4
130.0
129.2
L S U
117.7
117.2
117.5
117.5
Mississippi St.
115.5
114.2
114.5
114.7
Ole Miss
114.5
113.0
113.1
113.5
Arkansas
112.9
111.6
113.1
112.5
Texas A&M
108.4
108.8
108.9
108.7
Auburn
106.4
104.9
105.1
105.5
SEC
113.2
112.9
113.1
113.1
Sunbelt
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Appalachian St.
97.6
98.8
99.6
98.7
Georgia St.
97.4
97.5
99.4
98.1
James Madison
94.3
95.7
97.7
95.9
Marshall
94.7
95.6
95.4
95.3
Coastal Carolina
93.9
95.0
95.5
94.8
Ga. Southern
92.2
92.3
93.4
92.6
Old Dominion
89.7
89.7
89.7
89.7
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Troy
95.3
96.1
97.4
96.3
South Alabama
94.6
95.1
96.4
95.4
Louisiana
91.7
92.1
93.1
92.3
Southern Miss.
87.7
88.2
88.6
88.2
Texas St.
82.8
84.1
84.1
83.7
Arkansas St.
81.6
82.9
82.3
82.3
UL-Monroe
81.8
82.2
81.8
81.9
Sun Belt
91.1
91.8
92.5
91.8
Conference Ratings
#
Conference
Rating
1
Southeastern
113.1
2
Big Ten
111.4
3
Big 12
111.3
4
Pac-12
105.5
5
Atlantic Coast
105.3
6
American Athletic
98.2
7
Independents
92.1
8
Sun Belt
91.8
9
Mountain West
89.8
10
Mid-American
88.7
11
Conference USA
86.5
Playoff & Bowl Projections
Four weeks from today, the College Football Playoffs and Postseason Bowl Game participants will be revealed to the public. With less than a month to go, it’s time to take a more in-depth look at where things stand and where they might go.
The Playoff Race
After yesterday’s Georgia-Tennessee, Alabama-LSU, and Notre Dame-Clemson games played, it left three teams in the clear-cut lead to be in the top four this week. Georgia has now penned the lone losses on Oregon and Tennessee, and the Bulldogs will ascend to number one. Ohio State won ugly at Northwestern yesterday, but they played in severe weather. Michigan once again spotted an opponent an early lead and then steamrolled Rutgers by four touchdowns. Those three teams will be in the Big Four on Tuesday. Who will be number four? We believe it will be Tennessee, as losing at the new number one team by two touchdowns definitely tops Oregon’s blowout loss in Atlanta to the same team. Should TCU be in the mix? They most definitely should, but as so many media experts explain, their name drops them a couple spots in the rankings, just like Cincinnati last year at this time. If the Horned Frogs win out with three tough games to go, they almost assuredly would move into the top four, but that’s a big if, and at the present time, having watched TCU play most of their games, we don’t see this team sitting at 13-0 on December 4.
If we have to make a wild guess, we will say that Georgia will easily win out in the regular season, even if their game in Starkville this week may be a trap game. We cannot see any of Tennessee’s final three opponents competing against the Vols. Georgia stopped their offense, because the Bulldogs have a defense not that much weaker than the Detroit Lions (probably more future Pro Bowl players than the Lions). Neither Ohio State nor Michigan have much in their way prior to the big game at the Giant Horseshoe. It won’t be popular, but a Big Ten-SEC Challenge in the Playoffs could be in the offing. As of today, we have Georgia playing Michigan in the Peach Bowl, and Ohio State playing Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl. Oregon might win out and finish 12-1 and have to settle for the Rose Bowl. We can see TCU actually losing twice in the next month, and maybe having to settle for the Cotton Bowl or even the Alamo Bowl, depending on what UCLA or USC does out West.
The New Year’s Six
One thing that happened this weekend was the elimination of Alabama and most likely Clemson from the Playoff picture. With LSU’s win, the Tigers have a tough rebound game at Arkansas, and if Brian Kelly can lead the Bayou Bengals into Fayetteville and win, they almost have the SEC West clinched. At 10-2 and a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, we believe the Sugar Bowl will take them in a heartbeat. Where would that leave a 10-2 Alabama? We think they would still get an Orange Bowl bid, where they might face their former nemesis Clemson. The Rose Bowl would get the Pac-12 champion that would not be Playoff bound, so we’ll slot Oregon in there for now but not rule out the winner of the USC-UCLA game. That leaves the Cotton Bowl. The Group of Five team that finishes the highest in the ratings will automatically get a bid here. If that bid was extended today, the Tulane Green Wave would receive it, but TU must beat Central Florida, Cincinnati, and then one of those two again in the AAC Championship Game to get to 12-1 and secure the bid. Should TU falter, and we think that’s a very high possibility, the next team in line, one that strengthened their resume with a road win against an SEC team, would be Liberty, if the Flames win out (a much higher probability than Tulane). The last at-large team in the field would most likely be Penn State at 10-2, but the number two team in the Pac-12 could beat the Nittany Lions out. With losses to just two teams that we pick to be in the Playoffs, we’d go with Penn State to edge out any two-loss Pac-12 team.
American Athletic
As we previously mentioned, we do not see Tulane winning out, and should the Green Wave lose to both Central Florida and Cincinnati, they won’t even make the AAC Championship Game. If they beat UCF in New Orleans, they would have to beat Cinti in consecutive weeks to get there, once in the Queen City and then once in the Crescent City. If the Bearcats win out, and Tulane beats UCF, then Cinti would host Tulane in consecutive weeks. If UCF wins out, and Cincinnati tops Tulane, then the Bearcats would have to go to Orlando in the conference championship game.
Elsewhere in the AAC, with SMU’s record-setting basketball score win over Houston, the Mustangs are almost a lock to get a bowl bid. East Carolina is already bowl eligible. Houston and Memphis have work to do, but the schedule is favorable for both. As for the Cougars, Dana Holgersen may not be coaching the team by bowl season.
Atlantic Coast & Notre Dame
A half-dozen teams will have to lose games before Clemson has a remote chance to sneak into the playoffs, assuming the Tigers can win out. If they play like they have the last few weeks, beating North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game would be 50-50 at best, and they might even be vulnerable against South Carolina in the regular season finale. At best, CU can hope for another ACC title and a trip to the Orange Bowl. North Carolina may be the weakest 1-loss team from a Power 5 Conference since the 20th Century. The Tar Heels keep coming up with fourth quarter heroics to be mediocre teams. We don’t believe Mack Brown’s Heels can make it to a New Year’s Bowl Game, and they need to finish better than one game ahead of Notre Dame just to get the Cheez-it Bowl bid.
Notre Dame can receive any of the ACC’s allotted bowl bids after the Orange Bowl as long as their won-loss record is within one game of the next highest ACC team. If the Irish lose to USC and finish 9-3, they will be able to jump over a 10-2 team, but not an 11-2 team. What better bowl to send the Irish to in December than one in Boston? They’d sell out Fenway Park like a Yankees-Red Sox game in October.
With Notre Dame, this league figures to have 10 bowl eligible teams, which means all the first tier bowl bids will be taken, and one second tier bowl bid will be used. We believe the Gasparilla Bowl will get the final ACC team.
Big 12
Had Texas been able to edge Alabama in September and not lose their star QB for a few games, the Longhorns might be in the Playoff mix. The best the Longhorns can do now is to play spoiler and knock TCU out of the Playoff mix. If Quinn Ewers can remain healthy and not have another three interception day like he did against Oklahoma State, the Longhorns might win out and become Big 12 Champions, getting a Sugar Bowl bid.
TCU must beat Texas and Baylor and then whoever makes the Big 12 Championship Game in order to get to the necessary 13-0 they will need to make the Playoffs, and it looks like too much of a longshot. It is going to be rough just getting to the Sugar Bowl, and two losses most likely banishes the Frogs to the Alamo Bowl.
Elsewhere in the league, Kansas has now assured themselves of their first bowl bid in 14 years. Texas Tech and Iowa State are now fighting it out for the last bowl bid in this league, and we believe there will be eight teams playing in the postseason. If no Big 12 team gets to the Playoffs, there will be one extra team to fill in as an at-large bowl participant, and it is our belief that they will replace a spot that the SEC cannot fill.
Big Ten
We show three of the bowl eligible teams playing in either the Playoffs or New Year’s Six, so Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State being taken off the table means the other New Year’s Day games against SEC teams will have lesser teams. The Citrus Bowl is likely to go to the West Division Champion that will then get clobbered in the Big Ten Championship Game. At the moment, even with a loss this weekend, Illinois has the upper hand. The Reliaquest (Outback) bowl bid would then probably go to the West Division runner-up.
There should be 10 Bowl Eligible teams with many of the also-rans beating up on each other, so the Big Ten will be able to fill its allotment all the way down to the Quick Lane Bowl. That requires Michigan State to win two more games, but we think Sparty does that.
Conference USA
It is the weakest overall conference in FBS football, but geography is on CUSA’s side. This year, the two best teams are in the Lone Star State as UTSA and North Texas have moved to the top of the standings and figure to play in the title game. Western Kentucky, Rice, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee are quite mediocre, but all four could end up with six losses and become bowl eligible. The last bowl bid available figures to come down to the number six CUSA team and the number eight Mountain West team. Because that final bowl spot is likely to be from a game east of the Mississippi River, a 6-6 CUSA team should get in over a 6-6 MWC team.
Independents
Notre Dame is not counted as an independent since they can receive an ACC bid. Army and BYU are guaranteed bowl bids if they are bowl eligible. BYU should sneak in, but Army is looking at a potential 5-7 or 4-8 season.
Liberty will get a bowl bid, and if the Flames win out, they could be feeling some soft Cotton in Texas. The big surprise team that few people have taken notice to since September is Connecticut. The Huskies could very well become bowl eligible in Jim Mora Jr.’s first season in Storrs.
Mid-American
Toledo frequently appears to be the most talented team in the MAC, but the Rockets always stub their toes and fail to win the conference championship. They will have to look hard for something to bang their feet on this year. Losing another game would be a major Rocket malfunction. The rest of this league has a lot of parity, but there should be seven bowl eligible teams the first Sunday in December. All seven will get bowl bids. The question is, “who will be forced to spend December in Boise?”
Mountain West
This has been another down year in the MWC, and with rumors swirling that more than one team could be moving to the Pac-12 or even Big 12, this league has lost some prestige. Having Boise State no longer be great has hurt it even more. The Broncos lost to a so-so BYU team Saturday, and their upcoming game at Wyoming may determine the Mountain Division champion. Air Force and Utah State should also receive bowl bids on this side of the Rockies.
On the West side, Fresno State started slowly but is 10 to 14 points better than they were in early September. San Jose State can still win the division, but the Bulldogs look like they have this race under control. San Diego State also figures to be bowl eligible on this side. Once considered a contender for the division title, UNLV is looking at a 6-6 record and quite possibly becoming the lone bowl eligible team that does not receive an invitation.
Pac-12
Too much parity has been the bane of this league for several years. This year, there is a big division of haves and have-nots, and it likely means that the league will do no better than place a team in the Rose Bowl. Oregon’s 40+ point loss to Georgia cannot be overlooked, and if the Ducks win out and finish 12-1, two or three teams ahead of the Ducks today will have to lose. It won’t be easy for Oregon to win out.
UCLA, USC, and Utah are still in the mix for the Pac-12 title, and all three are talented enough to beat Oregon in December. If UCLA or USC wins out and Oregon wins out, the loser of the Pac-12 Championship Game would still have a fair chance at receiving the Cotton Bowl bid as the last NY6 team.
Oregon State, Washington, and Washington State will also be bowl eligible and will satisfy the rest of the league allotment with no extra teams. Oregon State could play spoiler in the Civil War game with the Ducks.
SEC
The overwhelming power of this league is most likely to leave the conference one team short of filling its bowl spots. We see Georgia and Tennessee both making the playoff, and we see LSU and Alabama both getting NY6 bids. We also see just 10 SEC teams becoming bowl eligible now that Texas A&M has collapsed and Arkansas tripped up at home against Liberty. The Arkansas-Missouri winner on the final weekend should get the final bowl bid. As of today, we have the Music City Bowl being the odd bowl out needing an at-large team, and the Big 12 is full of teams with fans that would love some country music during the holidays.
Sun Belt
The SBC pecking order is unique, and it is difficult to place teams in bowls because of it. ESPN gets the first choice of teams to place in one of the bowl games they sponsor. It doesn’t have to be the number one team in the league, just the number one choice. Next, the New Orleans Bowl gets to choose its team after ESPN has taken its first choice. The 3rd and 4th teams once again are chosen by ESPN for their bowls, and then the 5th team is chosen by the Lending Tree Bowl. There figures to be seven bowl eligible teams from this league, which is fast becoming the second best G5 conference. All seven will receive bids.
Bowl
Team
Team
Bahamas
Florida Atlantic
Bowling Green
Cure
South Alabama
Air Force
Fenway
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
New Mexico
Rice
San Jose St.
L.A.
Washington St.
Fresno St.
Lending Tree
Buffalo
Georgia Southern
Las Vegas
USC
Kentucky
Frisco
BYU
San Diego St.
Myrtle Beach
Ball St.
Appalachian St.
Famous Idaho Potato
Eastern Michigan
Utah St.
Boca Raton
Marshall
Connecticut
New Orleans
Western Kentucky
Coastal Carolina
Armed Forces
Tulane
UTSA
Independence
East Carolina
Southern Miss.
Gasparilla
Louisville
Houston
Hawaii
North Texas
Boise St.
Quick Lane
Michigan St.
Miami (O)
Camellia
Toledo
Troy
First Responder
Kansas
SMU
Birmingham
Memphis
Middle Tennessee
Guaranteed Rate
Oklahoma St.
Purdue
Military
Wake Forest
Central Florida
Liberty
Baylor
South Carolina
Holiday
Duke
Washington
Texas
Oklahoma
Missouri
Pinstripe
Pittsburgh
Wisconsin
Cheez-It
North Carolina
Kansas St.
Alamo
TCU
Utah
Duke’s Mayo
North Carolina St.
Maryland
Tony the Tiger Sun
Syracuse
Oregon St.
Arizona
Ohio U
Wyoming
Orange
Clemson
Alabama
Music City
Iowa
Texas Tech
Sugar
LSU
Texas
TaxSlayer
Florida St.
Mississippi St.
Peach
Georgia
Michigan
Fiesta
Ohio St.
Tennessee
Reliaquest (Outback)
Minnesota
Florida
Citrus
Illinois
Ole Miss
Cotton
UCLA
Liberty
Rose
Oregon
Penn St.
National Championship
Georgia
Ohio St.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Football–November 6, 2022
After coming back down to Earth last week with a 2-5 record against the spread, our seasonal record now stands at 18-10. That’s still abnormally high. Let’s hope we can get back on the winning side this week with seven selections, hoping to go 4-3 and be happy with a profit.
About 18 other games came within a point or two of being playable for us in our in-house method of picking games either against the spread, the total, or in creating a money line parlay where the odds are +120 or higher, preferably higher than +130 or +140.
Here are this week’s selections. Remember: We never wager real money on our selections, and we suggest you follow this lead.
Selection #1: Alabama and Texas A&M Over 51 1/2
First, we expect Bryce Young to be ready for this game, and he will only need a half or so of time he will be needed, as Alabama exacts some revenge against the Aggies. We chose to take the Over here, because ‘Bama could cover the total by themselves. We aren’t saying that a 52-0 game is in the offing, but 41-14 would be realistic.
Selection #2: Georgia Southern and Georgia St. Under 67 1/2
Both of these teams can put points on the scoreboard and score 35 points against a defense the caliber of their opponent this week, but this heated rivalry game is liable to have added defensive stops. Thus, we think the total is a little too high. We think this game could be 31-28, as high as 35-28, and we still win at 35-31. As long as this game doesn’t go to overtime, we think this is our top play of the week.
Selection #3: Army and Wake Forest Under 66 1/2
Our thinking here is that Army will try to reduce this game to a minimum of plays, and Wake Forest is coming off consecutive big games. Army’s offense isn’t assessing the real estate like it has in recent years, so scoring 20 points is not automatic, as they could only manage 14 against a weaker Georgia State defense last week. Wake Forest gave up 25 points to a Vanderbilt team that is somewhat comparable offensively to Army’s offensive abilities, and the Demon Deacons put up a strong defensive effort last week. We see this game as a 35-14, and 45-21 still wins this one.
Selection #4: Arkansas + 9 1/2 vs. Mississippi State
It is not in our DNA to play an underdog at 9 1/2 points, as 10 1/2 gives us so much better odds for the money. And, we know that teams that play Alabama frequently show the effects of the pasting they received in the next game.
Our internal game projection makes this spread playable for us, as we see this as almost a tossup and only give the Bulldogs the edge due to home field advantage. We don’t see State winning by more than a touchdown, if they win at all.
Selection #5: Money Line Parlay at +144.92
Notre Dame over BYU
Utah over UCLA
We wanted to find a way to get the Utes into our selections this week, and this appears to be the best possible play. After dropping the opener to Florida, the Utes have begun to look like the class of the Pac-12. As for the Notre Dame-BYU game, it is our belief that Notre Dame’s game with Marshall was a wake up call for the Irish. Looking at how close they came to winning at Ohio State compared to how the Buckeyes have fared since, we believe Notre Dame is sitting on their best game of the year this week. This is a neutral site game in Las Vegas, and it could be one of the more exciting TV games. But, we think the outcome is not all that much in doubt.
Selection #6: Money Line Parlay at +148.05
Nevada over Colorado St.
Tulane over East Carolina
These two games are simply a matter of our thinking that the ML is too low for the favorites, and thus, it gives us an inflated potential payout for playing the two favorites.
Money Line Parlay at +202.93
Oklahoma St. over Texas Tech
Kentucky over South Carolina
North Carolina St. over Florida St.
Similar to the #6 selection, our beliefs that these three favorites will win, while not as strong as the two-gamer above, still remains strong enough to make it playable at better than 2-1 odds.
That broken clock finally failed to show the correct time on the PiRate Ship. Last week, our five picks came in at 1-4, dropping our profit for the season to $1,211.77 ($1,311.77 left in the imaginary account).
We’re back to where we normally are in September. Usually, when we have a bad week, our saving grace in the past has been Money Line Parlays playing at +140 or higher odds. We had a tough time finding one really good parlay this week. While we like odds in the range of +140 to +180, we couldn’t find the right number of games to make this range work out. We also don’t like to play more than three games in a parlay, so it came down to going with 3 at more than +200 or go to five bigger favorites to get to +155 and change.
We also tend to like to play an odd number of games to eliminate the .500 record that results in a small loss. Of course, when one of those selections is a parlay that pays different than the straight 11-10 odds, a .500 record could be a winning week if one of those wins is the parlay.
Our selections this week are all about the numbers more than the actual teams playing. Without further adieu, here are our selections for the week. Remember: We never wager real money on our picks, and we highly suggest that you follow our lead.
Selection 1: Wyoming +14 1/2 vs. Air Force
This is a nice rivalry game, and the last time the margin of this game exceeded 14 points was 2013. Wyoming’s schedule has been considerably stronger than Air Force’s, as Illinois and Tulsa are both stronger than Colorado. Craig Bohl teams tend to be stronger against the run than the pass, so this looks like a good play to be on the side where the top four margins by frequency come with it (3, 7, 10, and 14 points represent the final margin in 1/4 of all college football games).
Selection #2: Wyoming & Air Force Under 46 1/2
For the same reasons above, this game appeals to us for the total. We think this game is more like a 20-17 game, which falls well under 46 1/2 points.
Selection #3: Maryland -2 1/2 vs. SMU
The PiRates really prefer to go with underdogs that we believe should be favorites, but there were no short ‘dogs this week that really jumped off the page. We believe that Maryland is better than a touchdown stronger than SMU. Game outcomes of 1 and 2 points occur just 5.9% of the time, and that includes 5.9% of the time that the favorite and the underdog win by 1 or 2.
Selection #4: Northern Illinois -2 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt
Ditto the game above. Except, Vanderbilt exposed itself by showing its real weakness last week against Wake Forest. The Huskies were somewhat shocked by Tulsa in week one, but they should rebound in week two.
Selection #5: Nebraska and Oklahoma Under 66 1/2
What do you get when you combine a defensive genius head coach coaching in his third ever game against a big rival with a coach making his debut when a few days ago, he was an assistant coach? Usually, you get a hard-fought game that tends to be a little more defense-oriented. The Cornhuskers should play their best game of the season for interim coach Mickey Joseph, while the Sooners may play it a bit more conservatively. An OU win similar to last year’s game, which ended with 39 total points scored.
Selection #6: California and Notre Dame Over 40 1/2
Notre Dame last started a season 0-3 in 2007. Before Irish fans jump out of buildings, they were 0-2 in 2011 with a loss to a weak South Florida team and proceeded to win eight of their next nine games. Cal isn’t the best defensive team in the land, even though the Bears are only giving up 13.5 points per game so far. UC-Davis and UNLV are not offensive juggernauts.
If this game ends 21-20, it beats the total by a half-point. Notre Dame and Marshall combined for 47 points, and Cal’s offense is better than Marshall’s.
Selection #7: Money Line Parlay at +204.42
Penn State over Auburn
Texas A&M over Miami (Fla.)
North Carolina St. over Texas Tech
Auburn barely beat a mediocre San Jose State team last week. A weaker Penn State team than this year’s squad defeated a stronger Auburn team than this year’s squad last year.
If Texas A&M loses again this week, Jimbo Fisher might be sharing a beer with Scott Frost the following Saturday somewhere outside of a football stadium.
Texas Tech’s win over Houston is getting a lot more accolades than it probably should have gotten. N.C. State’s narrow escape over East Carolina probably got too much as well. This is still a Wolf Pack team capable of winning the ACC Title.
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