The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 18, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 13

There are a bevy of interesting games with something on the line this week. Playoff games are on the line, bowl eligibility is on the line, and a few coaching jobs are on the line as Rivalry Week returns.
If you are a fan of a 5-6 team this week, you better hope that they win, because there is 0.01% chance or 1 in 10,000 that a bowl will have to take a team that is worse than 6-6. As of today, 71 teams are now bowl eligible. Three games this week will pit teams with identical 5-6 records, so three more are guaranteed to become bowl eligible, bringing the total to 74. There needs to be four more teams that will need one more win, and there are an additional 16 teams that have a chance to do so. The chances that 13 of these 16 teams lose their final game are less than the chances of the San Diego Padres facing the Chicago White Sox in the 2019 World Series.
Below, we take another look at each conference so you can determine which games you want to watch this week, or if you’d rather go shopping on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. You really should spend a few bucks with a locally owned small business this Saturday. We recommend our favorite jewelry artist, Marjorie Miller of Marjorie Miller Designs right here in the Music City at Beautiful Gifts for Her

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Northern Illinois -6.5 -6.0 -6.2
Miami (O) Ball St. 17.9 17.6 20.4

 

Thursday November 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Air Force Colorado St. 14.7 14.6 15.4
Ole Miss Mississippi St. -17.4 -16.1 -18.1

 

Friday November 23
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio U Akron 19.3 19.6 20.6
Cincinnati East Carolina 17.8 19.3 18.3
Kent St. Eastern Michigan -14.7 -15.2 -15.4
Bowling Green Buffalo -13.3 -14.5 -14.3
Iowa Nebraska 17.0 16.3 17.2
Kansas Texas -13.8 -13.8 -14.7
Missouri Arkansas 24.8 25.6 26.8
South Alabama Coastal Carolina -0.3 -1.0 -0.6
Toledo Central Michigan 19.6 18.8 19.5
South Florida Central Florida -21.0 -20.0 -21.5
Oregon St. Oregon -20.9 -22.8 -22.4
Memphis Houston 3.1 3.9 3.7
Virginia Tech Virginia -0.6 -2.1 -1.0
West Virginia Oklahoma -1.0 -0.7 -1.4
Washington St. Washington -1.6 -0.4 -2.1

 

Saturday November 24
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 6.0 5.0 5.5
Connecticut Temple -30.1 -29.9 -31.6
Louisville Kentucky -21.4 -20.6 -22.4
Clemson South Carolina 28.8 27.6 30.1
Michigan St. Rutgers 29.0 28.0 29.5
Georgia St. Georgia Southern -12.2 -12.3 -12.7
Florida Int’l. Marshall -2.1 -1.1 -2.5
Boston College Syracuse 7.6 6.8 8.0
Ohio St. Michigan -3.5 -4.2 -4.3
Northwestern Illinois 24.9 23.8 26.2
Georgia Georgia Tech 15.5 14.1 17.1
Duke Wake Forest 11.7 11.5 12.8
Wisconsin Minnesota 14.3 13.3 14.3
North Carolina North Carolina St. -11.6 -11.6 -11.2
Louisiana Tech Western Kentucky 12.4 11.6 12.4
Rice Old Dominion -13.1 -13.6 -14.0
UTEP Southern Miss. -13.3 -13.4 -14.0
Liberty New Mexico St. 11.0 8.6 11.4
Boise St. Utah St. 3.9 2.2 3.1
Utah BYU 17.8 15.8 17.6
Appalachian St. Troy 9.5 10.1 9.6
New Mexico Wyoming -8.5 -7.9 -9.0
Middle Tennessee UAB -2.1 -2.6 -1.8
California Colorado 12.9 10.6 12.8
UCLA Stanford -11.9 -10.1 -13.9
Vanderbilt Tennessee 4.3 3.6 4.8
TCU Oklahoma St. -2.2 -2.1 -3.7
Florida St. Florida -4.9 -4.5 -6.4
Penn St. Maryland 16.1 14.9 16.3
Baylor Texas Tech -7.0 -7.3 -6.2
Fresno St. San Jose St. 36.9 35.3 37.9
Iowa St. Kansas St. 11.8 11.5 12.3
Texas A&M LSU -1.4 -1.5 -1.7
Indiana Purdue -6.6 -6.0 -6.4
Tulane Navy 6.9 5.5 6.9
UL-Monroe Louisiana 5.3 3.7 4.6
Tulsa SMU -2.9 -2.9 -2.3
Florida Atlantic Charlotte 20.3 19.1 19.9
Texas St. Arkansas St. -13.8 -12.8 -15.0
UTSA North Texas -22.5 -20.9 -22.5
USC Notre Dame -17.3 -16.7 -17.8
Alabama Auburn 25.4 24.8 25.5
UNLV Nevada -13.3 -12.5 -13.4
San Diego St. Hawaii 20.3 18.8 21.5
Arizona Arizona St. -7.2 -7.3 -6.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 129.1 127.9 129.8 128.9
4 Georgia 127.8 125.3 129.0 127.3
5 Notre Dame 126.9 124.6 126.2 125.9
6 Mississippi St. 122.5 120.7 123.6 122.3
7 Ohio St. 122.6 120.6 122.4 121.9
8 Oklahoma 121.4 120.0 121.1 120.8
9 Washington 120.6 118.4 120.9 119.9
10 Missouri 119.8 118.3 120.8 119.6
11 L S U 117.9 117.0 118.7 117.9
12 Iowa 118.0 116.1 117.6 117.2
13 Auburn 117.1 116.0 118.6 117.2
14 West Virginia 117.4 116.3 116.7 116.8
15 Utah 116.9 115.5 117.5 116.7
16 Washington St. 117.0 116.0 116.8 116.6
17 Penn St. 117.4 114.9 116.9 116.4
18 Texas 114.9 113.5 114.6 114.3
19 Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.3 114.2
20 Stanford 114.8 112.5 115.0 114.1
21 Boston College 114.8 112.6 114.5 114.0
22 Texas A&M 114.0 113.0 114.5 113.8
23 Michigan St. 114.6 112.5 113.9 113.7
24 Miami 114.3 112.7 113.6 113.6
25 Georgia Tech 113.7 112.7 113.3 113.3
26 Fresno St. 113.3 112.7 113.5 113.2
27 Iowa State 113.8 112.2 113.4 113.1
28 N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.5 112.7 112.8
29 Florida 112.8 111.1 113.3 112.4
30 S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.5 111.4
31 Northwestern 111.8 110.3 111.8 111.3
32 Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3
33 Wisconsin 112.1 109.7 111.4 111.1
34 Boise St. 110.9 110.6 111.2 110.9
35 Utah St. 110.0 111.4 111.1 110.8
36 Pittsburgh 110.8 110.2 110.6 110.6
37 Kentucky 110.5 109.2 110.3 110.0
38 Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9
39 Oklahoma St. 110.3 108.8 110.3 109.8
40 Syracuse 110.2 108.9 109.5 109.5
41 Purdue 110.0 108.2 109.6 109.3
42 Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2
43 Texas Tech 108.8 107.3 107.6 107.9
44 California 108.3 106.2 108.3 107.6
45 Virginia 106.3 106.4 105.7 106.1
46 U S C 106.5 104.9 105.4 105.6
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.6 104.9 105.1
48 T C U 105.6 104.2 104.1 104.6
49 Temple 103.9 104.1 104.5 104.2
50 Kansas St. 104.5 103.2 103.6 103.8
51 Ohio U 103.0 104.2 103.9 103.7
52 Maryland 104.3 103.0 103.6 103.6
53 Ole Miss 103.7 103.2 104.0 103.6
54 Vanderbilt 103.5 103.4 103.7 103.6
55 Memphis 102.8 104.1 103.7 103.5
56 Nebraska 104.1 102.9 103.4 103.4
57 Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4
58 Virginia Tech 104.2 102.8 103.2 103.4
59 Houston 102.7 103.2 102.9 102.9
60 Cincinnati 100.9 102.4 101.2 101.5
61 Arizona 101.8 100.4 102.1 101.4
62 Wake Forest 102.5 100.7 100.7 101.3
63 BYU 100.6 101.3 101.4 101.1
64 Baylor 101.8 100.1 101.3 101.1
65 Indiana 101.4 100.3 101.2 101.0
66 Tennessee 100.8 101.3 100.4 100.8
67 N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9
68 Appalachian St. 98.6 100.6 100.2 99.8
69 U C L A 100.4 99.9 98.7 99.6
70 Minnesota 100.3 98.9 99.6 99.6
71 U A B 98.2 100.6 99.0 99.3
72 Buffalo 98.0 100.0 99.3 99.1
73 Colorado 98.4 98.6 98.5 98.5
74 Toledo 97.6 99.0 97.6 98.1
75 Northern Illinois 97.5 98.5 97.9 98.0
76 N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7
77 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
78 Kansas 98.1 96.7 96.9 97.2
79 San Diego St. 96.8 96.9 97.3 97.0
80 Arkansas 98.0 95.6 97.0 96.9
81 Miami (O) 95.5 97.3 97.7 96.8
82 Nevada 96.4 96.5 96.4 96.4
83 Air Force 95.9 96.5 96.3 96.2
84 Eastern Michigan 95.4 96.9 95.9 96.1
85 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
86 Wyoming 95.4 95.7 95.3 95.4
87 Middle Tennessee 93.6 95.5 94.7 94.6
88 SMU 94.8 94.4 94.0 94.4
89 Tulane 93.3 93.8 93.2 93.4
90 Troy 91.5 93.0 93.0 92.5
91 Louisiana Tech 91.5 93.5 92.0 92.3
92 South Florida 91.5 92.9 91.3 91.9
93 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.2 90.3 91.0
94 Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.5 90.9
95 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.7 90.5 90.7
96 Western Michigan 88.5 90.0 89.2 89.3
97 Tulsa 89.4 89.1 89.2 89.2
98 Navy 88.4 90.2 88.3 89.0
99 Rutgers 88.6 87.5 87.5 87.9
100 Illinois 88.5 87.9 87.2 87.9
101 Southern Miss. 85.9 89.0 86.5 87.2
102 Louisville 87.6 87.0 86.4 87.0
103 UL-Monroe 86.5 87.2 87.2 87.0
104 Akron 85.7 86.6 85.2 85.9
105 East Carolina 85.6 85.6 85.4 85.5
106 Oregon St. 86.2 84.2 85.2 85.2
107 New Mexico 84.4 85.3 83.7 84.5
108 Old Dominion 82.9 86.1 82.8 84.0
109 Louisiana 82.7 85.0 84.1 83.9
110 Colorado St. 83.2 83.9 82.9 83.3
111 W. Kentucky 81.6 84.4 82.0 82.7
112 Bowling Green 82.1 83.0 82.5 82.5
113 U N L V 81.6 82.5 81.5 81.9
114 Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5
115 Central Michigan 80.5 82.6 80.7 81.3
116 Hawaii 80.5 82.1 79.7 80.8
117 Ball St. 80.1 82.2 79.8 80.7
118 Liberty 80.6 79.9 80.8 80.5
119 Charlotte 79.2 81.7 80.0 80.3
120 Kent St. 78.7 79.7 78.5 79.0
121 San Jose St. 78.9 79.9 78.1 79.0
122 Coastal Carolina 76.1 78.4 76.6 77.0
123 Georgia St. 76.2 77.9 76.3 76.8
124 Texas State 74.1 76.6 74.5 75.1
125 South Alabama 73.3 74.9 73.5 73.9
126 U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8
127 N. Mexico St. 72.1 73.8 71.9 72.6
128 Connecticut 71.8 72.2 70.9 71.6
129 U T E P 70.6 73.7 70.6 71.6
130 Rice 67.8 70.5 66.8 68.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.3 114.2 7-0 10-0
Temple 103.9 104.1 104.5 104.2 6-1 7-4
Cincinnati 100.9 102.4 101.2 101.5 5-2 9-2
South Florida 91.5 92.9 91.3 91.9 3-4 7-4
East Carolina 85.6 85.6 85.4 85.5 1-6 3-7
Connecticut 71.8 72.2 70.9 71.6 0-7 1-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 102.8 104.1 103.7 103.5 4-3 7-4
Houston 102.7 103.2 102.9 102.9 5-2 8-3
SMU 94.8 94.4 94.0 94.4 4-3 5-6
Tulane 93.3 93.8 93.2 93.4 4-3 5-6
Tulsa 89.4 89.1 89.2 89.2 1-6 2-9
Navy 88.4 90.2 88.3 89.0 2-5 3-8
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 8-0 11-0
Boston College 114.8 112.6 114.5 114.0 4-3 7-4
N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.5 112.7 112.8 4-3 7-3
Syracuse 110.2 108.9 109.5 109.5 5-2 8-3
Florida St. 105.8 104.6 104.9 105.1 3-5 5-6
Wake Forest 102.5 100.7 100.7 101.3 2-5 5-6
Louisville 87.6 87.0 86.4 87.0 0-8 2-9
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 114.3 112.7 113.6 113.6 3-4 6-5
Georgia Tech 113.7 112.7 113.3 113.3 5-3 7-4
Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3 3-4 7-4
Pittsburgh 110.8 110.2 110.6 110.6 6-1 7-4
Virginia 106.3 106.4 105.7 106.1 4-3 7-4
Virginia Tech 104.2 102.8 103.2 103.4 3-4 4-6
N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9 1-6 2-8
ACC Averages 109.7 108.4 109.1 109.0
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.4 120.0 121.1 120.8 7-1 10-1
West Virginia 117.4 116.3 116.7 116.8 6-2 8-2
Texas 114.9 113.5 114.6 114.3 6-2 8-3
Iowa State 113.8 112.2 113.4 113.1 5-3 6-4
Oklahoma St. 110.3 108.8 110.3 109.8 3-5 6-5
Texas Tech 108.8 107.3 107.6 107.9 3-5 5-6
T C U 105.6 104.2 104.1 104.6 3-5 5-6
Kansas St. 104.5 103.2 103.6 103.8 3-5 5-6
Baylor 101.8 100.1 101.3 101.1 3-5 5-6
Kansas 98.1 96.7 96.9 97.2 1-7 3-8
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 129.1 127.9 129.8 128.9 8-0 10-1
Ohio St. 122.6 120.6 122.4 121.9 7-1 10-1
Penn St. 117.4 114.9 116.9 116.4 5-3 8-3
Michigan St. 114.6 112.5 113.9 113.7 4-4 6-5
Maryland 104.3 103.0 103.6 103.6 3-5 5-6
Indiana 101.4 100.3 101.2 101.0 2-6 5-6
Rutgers 88.6 87.5 87.5 87.9 0-8 1-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 118.0 116.1 117.6 117.2 4-4 7-4
Northwestern 111.8 110.3 111.8 111.3 7-1 7-4
Wisconsin 112.1 109.7 111.4 111.1 5-3 7-4
Purdue 110.0 108.2 109.6 109.3 4-4 5-6
Nebraska 104.1 102.9 103.4 103.4 3-5 4-7
Minnesota 100.3 98.9 99.6 99.6 2-6 5-6
Illinois 88.5 87.9 87.2 87.9 2-6 4-7
Big Ten Averages 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 3-4 5-6
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 5-2 7-3
Middle Tennessee 93.6 95.5 94.7 94.6 6-1 7-4
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.2 90.3 91.0 6-1 8-3
Old Dominion 82.9 86.1 82.8 84.0 2-5 4-7
W. Kentucky 81.6 84.4 82.0 82.7 1-6 2-9
Charlotte 79.2 81.7 80.0 80.3 3-4 4-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 98.2 100.6 99.0 99.3 7-0 9-2
N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7 4-3 8-3
Louisiana Tech 91.5 93.5 92.0 92.3 5-2 7-4
Southern Miss. 85.9 89.0 86.5 87.2 3-4 5-5
U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8 2-5 3-8
U T E P 70.6 73.7 70.6 71.6 1-6 1-10
Rice 67.8 70.5 66.8 68.4 0-7 1-11
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 126.9 124.6 126.2 125.9 x 11-0
Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4 x 9-2
BYU 100.6 101.3 101.4 101.1 x 6-5
Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5 x 4-8
Liberty 80.6 79.9 80.8 80.5 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.1 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-8
Indep. Averages 94.0 94.3 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 103.0 104.2 103.9 103.7 5-2 7-4
Buffalo 98.0 100.0 99.3 99.1 6-1 9-2
Miami (O) 95.5 97.3 97.7 96.8 5-2 5-6
Akron 85.7 86.6 85.2 85.9 2-5 4-6
Bowling Green 82.1 83.0 82.5 82.5 2-5 3-8
Kent St. 78.7 79.7 78.5 79.0 1-6 2-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.6 99.0 97.6 98.1 4-3 6-5
Northern Illinois 97.5 98.5 97.9 98.0 6-1 7-4
Eastern Michigan 95.4 96.9 95.9 96.1 4-3 6-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.0 89.2 89.3 4-3 6-5
Central Michigan 80.5 82.6 80.7 81.3 0-7 1-10
Ball St. 80.1 82.2 79.8 80.7 3-4 4-7
MAC Averages 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 110.9 110.6 111.2 110.9 6-1 9-2
Utah St. 110.0 111.4 111.1 110.8 7-0 10-1
Air Force 95.9 96.5 96.3 96.2 2-5 4-7
Wyoming 95.4 95.7 95.3 95.4 3-4 5-6
New Mexico 84.4 85.3 83.7 84.5 1-6 3-8
Colorado St. 83.2 83.9 82.9 83.3 2-5 3-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 113.3 112.7 113.5 113.2 6-1 9-2
San Diego St. 96.8 96.9 97.3 97.0 4-3 7-4
Nevada 96.4 96.5 96.4 96.4 5-2 7-4
U N L V 81.6 82.5 81.5 81.9 1-6 3-8
Hawaii 80.5 82.1 79.7 80.8 4-3 7-5
San Jose St. 78.9 79.9 78.1 79.0 1-6 1-10
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 120.6 118.4 120.9 119.9 6-2 8-3
Washington St. 117.0 116.0 116.8 116.6 7-1 10-1
Stanford 114.8 112.5 115.0 114.1 4-3 6-4
Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2 4-4 7-4
California 108.3 106.2 108.3 107.6 3-4 6-4
Oregon St. 86.2 84.2 85.2 85.2 1-7 2-9
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.9 115.5 117.5 116.7 6-3 8-3
Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9 4-4 6-5
U S C 106.5 104.9 105.4 105.6 4-5 5-6
Arizona 101.8 100.4 102.1 101.4 4-4 5-6
U C L A 100.4 99.9 98.7 99.6 3-5 3-8
Colorado 98.4 98.6 98.5 98.5 2-6 5-6
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 127.8 125.3 129.0 127.3 7-1 10-1
Missouri 119.8 118.3 120.8 119.6 3-4 7-4
Florida 112.8 111.1 113.3 112.4 5-3 8-3
S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.5 111.4 4-4 6-4
Kentucky 110.5 109.2 110.3 110.0 5-3 8-3
Vanderbilt 103.5 103.4 103.7 103.6 2-5 5-6
Tennessee 100.8 101.3 100.4 100.8 2-5 5-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0 7-0 11-0
Mississippi St. 122.5 120.7 123.6 122.3 3-4 7-4
L S U 117.9 117.0 118.7 117.9 5-2 9-2
Auburn 117.1 116.0 118.6 117.2 3-4 7-4
Texas A&M 114.0 113.0 114.5 113.8 4-3 7-4
Ole Miss 103.7 103.2 104.0 103.6 1-6 5-6
Arkansas 98.0 95.6 97.0 96.9 0-7 2-9
SEC Averages 114.4 113.2 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.6 100.6 100.2 99.8 6-1 8-2
Troy 91.5 93.0 93.0 92.5 7-0 9-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.7 90.5 90.7 5-2 8-3
Coastal Carolina 76.1 78.4 76.6 77.0 2-5 5-6
Georgia St. 76.2 77.9 76.3 76.8 1-6 2-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.5 90.9 4-3 7-4
UL-Monroe 86.5 87.2 87.2 87.0 4-3 6-5
Louisiana 82.7 85.0 84.1 83.9 4-3 6-5
Texas State 74.1 76.6 74.5 75.1 1-6 3-8
South Alabama 73.3 74.9 73.5 73.9 1-6 2-9
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.2 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 109.7 108.4 109.1 109.0
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
5 PAC12 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 IND 94.0 94.3 94.1 94.1
8 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
9 MAC 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

Group of 5 Teams Still in Running for NY6 Bowl

  1. Central Florida
  2. Utah St.
  3. Boise St.
  4. Fresno St.
  5. Army

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati Troy
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA SMU Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Memphis [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida UAB
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U San Diego St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College [Eastern Michigan]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Nevada] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Syracuse Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Texas Tech
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Miami (Fla.)
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Central Florida
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Standard

American Athletic
UCF vs. USF: Central Florida easily disposed of Cincinnati, and now they must end the regular season with a swooning South Florida team that looks all out of kilter. USF was 7-0 and has now lost four consecutive games. The Bulls play one good half and one bad half in nearly every game, and if this repeats itself, UCF should win by more than 20 points. However, we suspect USF will play its best game of the year, so this game could be closer than expected, especially if USF’s better half is the first half.

Time: Friday, 4:00 PM
TV: ESPN

Memphis vs. Houston: The West Division race is still up for grabs, and it will go to the winner of the Houston-Memphis game at the Liberty Bowl. Houston may have a little bit of dissension after some issues on the sidelines against Tulane last week. Memphis is playing its best ball of the season, and the Tigers enjoy a modicum of home field advantage. This game could have some head coaching implications. Major Applewhite is not a huge favorite in Houston, and a loss plus a bowl loss could put his job in jeopardy. On the other side, Memphis coach Mike Norvell could be on the short list of multiple Power 5 Conference jobs.
Time: Friday, 12:00 PM
TV: ABC

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Tulane vs. Navy, 12 Noon on ESPNU
SMU vs. Tulsa, 3:30 PM on CBSSN

Atlantic Coast
Clemson will play Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game, but there are other reasons to watch the Tigers this week. CU plays rival South Carolina, and this should give us all a chance to see Trevor Lawrence face a tough SEC defense. Somewhere down the road, Clemson might play for a National Championship against an even better SEC defense. In limited action earlier this year Lawrence was 5 of 9 for 99 yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M. South Carolina became bowl eligible against Chattanooga last night, and the Gamecocks added a late replacement game for their hurricane cancellation. They now play Akron next week, so there is a chance to get to 8-4 if they can pull off the big upset in this game. At 8-4, they could move up over Missouri and Auburn in the bowl pecking order.  Clemson vs. South Carolina

Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: ESPN

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida State vs. Florida, 12 PM on ABC
Wake Forest vs. Duke, 12:30 PM on ACCn

Big 12
This conference has multiple games of importance in both the Playoff and bowl picture. Let’s start by explaining how the Conference Championship Game looks.

Oklahoma leads Texas and West Virginia by one game in the standings, but the Sooners have not clinched a spot in the Championship Game. Oklahoma plays at West Virginia this week. Texas visits Kansas.

If Oklahoma wins, they are the #1 seed, and West Virginia falls to 6-3 in the league. If Texas then beats Kansas, it will be a rematch of the Red River Rivalry in Arlington, Texas, as the Longhorns will be 7-2.

If West Virginia beats Oklahoma, and Texas beats Kansas, then the Sooners are eliminated, while West Virginia and Texas play in the title game.

If Texas loses to Kansas in a monumental upset, then no matter what happens in the OU-WVU game, the two will play again the next week for the Big 12 Championship.

Oklahoma needs to beat West Virginia and Texas and hope for Northwestern to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game to have any chance at making the Playoffs. There is a minor chance that they could get in if Notre Dame lays an egg at the Coliseum against USC this week, but the way the Trojans are playing, don’t bet on it.

There are three more important games in the Big 12 this week.  Texas Tech plays Baylor at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The winner earns a bowl bid, while the loser plays again next September. If the loser is Texas Tech, there’s a good chance that somebody other than Kliff KIngsbury will be coaching the Red Raiders in 2019. His job is not totally secure unless TTU wins this game and the bowl game.
Oklahoma State is bowl eligible thanks to the upset over West Virginia. The Cowboys close the season against TCU, and the 5-6 Horned Frogs need a win to become bowl eligible. TCU had several near misses, but their defense looked strong in stopping Baylor Saturday.
Kansas State might be playing its final game under the direction of legendary coach Bill Snyder. At 79, there’s a chance that Snyder will retire for good after this season. Kansas State is 5-6 and faces a tough finishing game against Iowa State in Ames. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell might also be leading his Cyclones on the field for the last time. He could easily be gobbled up by a bigger school looking to hire a new coach. Should Urban Meyer step down at Ohio State, a lot of insiders believe that Campbell would be on a very short list in Columbus.

Big 12 Key Game Schedule
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Time: Friday, 8 PM
TV; ESPN

Texas vs. Kansas
Time: Friday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Time: Saturday, 12 Noon
TV: FS1

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.
Time: Saturday, 8 PM
TV: Fox

Kansas St. vs. Iowa St.
Time: Saturday, 7 PM
TV: FS1

 

Big Ten
Michigan vs. Ohio State: It’s all about the big rivalry game at the Giant Horseshoe. Michigan and Ohio State will meet for the annual grudge match, and the winner wins the East and stays in contention for the Playoffs. The loser most likely would get the consolation prize of a Rose Bowl game. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000, which means they are zero for their last eight. In that span, they lose their most important game prior to this one, when they fell by a field goal in 2006. Expect a hard-fought effort on both sides, and the winner just may come out of this game at somewhat less than 100%, giving Northwestern a bit more chance to pull off a big upset in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Fox

Indiana and Purdue face off in Bloomington in a bowl qualification/elimination game. These may be the two best 5-6 teams in the nation, and the winner will be a tough 6-6 bowl team. Purdue may be playing with some distractions, as it appears as if Coach Jeff Brohm is halfway out the door and headed south to his Alma Mater in Louisville.

Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe must fall in the favor of Minnesota against Wisconsin if the Golden Gophers are to nab the Big Ten’s ninth bowl bid. UM is 5-6 and extremely inconsistent, sometimes in the same half of games. Wisconsin is coming in for a landing with a stalled engine, so this game should be close and relatively low scoring.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN2

Maryland has not won a game since D.J. Durkin was officially re-instated and then fired. The Terrapins were 5-3 and looking like a bowl team before the news hit. They have dropped three games in a row and must win at Penn State to become bowl eligible. Penn State is winning on fumes in November. The Nittany Lions’ offense has disappeared. Still, PSU looks like a prohibitive favorite in this game, and they actually still hold a remote chance of earning the final New Year’s Six Bowl bid. A win would almost guarantee them no worse than the Citrus or Outback Bowl games on New Year’s Day. Maryland vs. Penn St.

Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

Conference USA
CUSA lost any chance of sending a team to the Peach Bowl when UAB coughed up the ball too many times and lost at Texas A&M after coming out even in total yardage. The Blazers have clinched a berth in the CUSA Championship Game, and their contest at Middle Tennessee this week will still be important, because the East Division race is still to be decided. If Middle beats UAB, and Marshall beats Florida International, then Middle and UAB would play again next week in the CUSA Championship Game. If FIU beats Marshall and UAB beats Middle Tennessee, then FIU wins the East Division race.

Middle Tennessee vs. UAB
Time: 3PM, Saturday
TV: Online only at ESPN3

Florida International vs. Marshall
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: Stadium and Facebook

Teams needing to win Saturday to become bowl eligible
Florida Atlantic vs. Charlotte
Time: Saturday, 6PM
TV: Stadium

Southern Mississippi vs. UTEP
Time: 3 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Independents
Notre Dame can become the first team to secure a spot in the Playoffs by topping USC in Los Angeles. USC will be playing for bowl eligibility as well as Coach Clay Helton’s job security. There might be a couple of NFL head coaches, including former coach Pete Carroll interested in taking the job if it becomes available, but we tend to believe Dino Babers might be the answer if this job opens up. As for the Irish, they are peaking at the right time. A double-digit win should leave Notre Dame in the 3-slot with a trip to the Orange Bowl to face Clemson the most likely scenario.  Notre Dame vs. USC

Time: 8 PM, Saturday
TV: ABC

 

Mid-American
The MAC Championship Game will pit Buffalo and Northern Illinois unless the unthinkable happens, and the Bulls lose to a weak Bowling Green team. Should Buffalo lose, then Miami of Ohio has a chance to do the unthinkable for the second time in three years if they beat Ball St. Miami began 2016 at 0-6 and then won six games in a row to come from last to first and make a bowl game. This year the Red Hawks were 1-4 and then 3-6 before winning back-to-back games over favored Ohio and Northern Illinois teams. Ohio can only win the division if Buffalo and Miami both lose.
In the West, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan all have six wins and are bowl eligible, but there is little chance that all three will be invited to bowls. At least one of these three will miss out, so, it is important to get that seventh win this week.

Key MAC Games Schedule

Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPNU

Miami (O) vs. Ball St.
Time: 7PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPN+

Ohio U vs. Akron
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: CBSSN
Note: Akron is technically still in the running for bowl eligibility at 4-6, but the Zips must beat Ohio and then South Carolina, so we have eliminated them from the bowl team possibles.

Eastern Michigan vs. Kent St.
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online

Western Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
Time: 7 PM, Tuesday
TV: ESPNU

Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Time: 12 Noon, Friday
TV: ESPN3 online
Mountain West
Fresno State clinched a spot in the conference championship game and will face the winner of the Boise State-Utah State game. Utah State is playing for more than just a spot in the MWC Championship Game. They are the team on-deck should Central Florida fall to USF or in the AAC Championship Game. The Aggies could sneak into the Fiesta Bowl with wins over Boise State and Fresno State and a loss by UCF.

Boise State-Utah St.
Time: 10:15 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN

Wyoming is 5-6 and needs a win over New Mexico to become bowl eligible. Even at 6-6, the Cowboys have only a slim chance to earn a bowl bid.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: MWCn
Pac-12
Both division races will be decided this week. In the North Division race, it comes down to the Apple Cup game between Washington and Washington St. Washington State has not won the Apple Cup since Mike Leach’s first year in the Palouse. UW has won the last five years by better than three touchdowns per game. An impressive win over Washington combined with a blowout win in the Pac-12 Championship Game could bring the Playoffs into view for WSU if Northwestern won the Big Ten Championship Game and Oklahoma did not win the Big 12 Championship.  Washington State vs. Washington

Time: 8:30 PM, Friday
TV: Fox

The South Division comes down to Utah or Arizona State. Utah has already finished their conference slate, and their game against BYU is strictly for bragging rights in the Beehive State. The Arizona State-Arizona game is the important one. If the Sun Devils win, then Coach Herm Edwards will force all those pundits to eat crow when they called his hiring a farce. ASU would win the South with a win over their rival. Arizona has a lot to play for as well. The Wildcats are 5-6 and must win to become bowl eligible, where they most likely would be shipped east as an at-large team for a bowl needing to fill a spot.

Arizona-Arizona State
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: FS1

Colorado was 5-0, and now the Buffaloes are 5-6. Coach Mike MacIntyre is on a hot seat in snowy Boulder, and CU must venture to smoky Berkeley to face a hot Cal team that got an unexpected week off last week. CU better hope that Cal is looking forward to the Stanford makeup game the following week and overlooks the Buffs, because CU hasn’t got much left in the tank at this point.  Colorado vs. California

Time: 7PM, Saturday
TV: Pac-12
Southeastern
Alabama and Georgia will meet in the next chapter of greatness in the SEC Championship Game next week, but both teams must not overlook their arch-rivals this week, both of whom come into this game in peak performance.

Alabama should have little problem with Auburn, but the Tide showed some vulnerabilities that Auburn, and then Georgia, and possibly Clemson can attack. By saying “vulnerabilities,” we refer to something similar to the 1927 New York Yankees being a little weak at third base with Jumping Joe Dugan. Auburn last beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 2010, but that team has Cam Newton at quarterback and still only won by a point.

Alabama vs. Auburn
Time: 3:30 PM, Saturday
TV: CBS

Georgia cannot afford a loss to Georgia Tech, as the Bulldogs might not make the playoffs even if they subsequently beat Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Tech has made a big turnaround since starting the season 1-3. Quarterback TaQuon Marshall has a chance to reach 1,000 rushing yards with a good game here and another in the bowl game.

Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Time: 12 Noon, Saturday
TV: SECn

Vanderbilt and Tennessee face off in Nashville with a bowl game going to the winner and the end of the line coming for the loser. Tennessee needs quarterback Jarrett Guarantano to return from a head and neck injury suffered Saturday against Missouri. Guarantano is worth more than a touchdown to the Vols compared to backup Keller Chryst. The Vols also have concerns at wideout where Marquez Callaway also was injured against Missouri. Vanderbilt has some injury concerns at quarterback as well, but it is their number two guy that will probably miss this game. Should anything happen to Kyle Shurmur, then the Commodores would be forced to put a true freshman with zero game experience into the most important game of their season. Vandy coach Derek Mason could receive some feelers from other job openings if he can guide the Commodores to their second bowl in three years. He was courted by California last year, and a possible opening or two in the Pac-12 could attract him.  Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Time: 4 PM, Saturday
TV: SECn

Sun Belt
Half of the league still holds SBC Championship Game aspirations. In the East, Troy plays Appalachian State, and the winner takes the division title and hosts the inaugural SBC Championship Game. The Mountaineers host this game and have not lost a conference game at home in more than three years. These two teams did not play each other last year when they tied for first, and the last two times they played, the games came down to the final minute.

Time: 2:30 PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN+

The West Division is currently log-jammed with three teams tied for first at 4-3. Louisiana holds the trump card in this three-way race. If the Ragin’ Cajuns defeat rival UL-Monroe, they will win the division title and play in the league title game. If UL-Monroe beats Louisiana, then Arkansas State would get in if the Red Wolves beat Texas State. If UL-Monroe wins and Arkansas State loses, then the Warhawks would win the division title outright.
Louisiana vs. UL-Monroe
Time: 3 PM ,Saturday
TV: ESPN+

Arkansas State vs. Texas State
Time: 4PM, Saturday
TV: ESPN3

 

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November 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Western Michigan -6.3 -6.0 -7.9

 

Wednesday November 14
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio U Buffalo 2.1 1.2 1.5
Northern Illinois Miami (O) 7.1 6.5 5.4

 

Thursday November 15
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Kent St. Toledo -16.5 -16.7 -16.3
Houston Tulane 7.4 7.4 7.7
North Texas Florida Atlantic 2.4 3.4 2.2

 

Friday November 16
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU Memphis -4.4 -6.0 -5.8
New Mexico Boise St. -23.1 -21.5 -23.7

 

Saturday November 17
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Michigan Indiana 32.8 32.7 33.6
Wake Forest Pittsburgh -2.5 -3.8 -4.1
Illinois Iowa -21.0 -19.7 -21.9
Purdue Wisconsin 0.9 1.9 1.6
Georgia Tech Virginia 11.6 10.6 12.2
Minnesota Northwestern -8.4 -8.0 -9.0
Clemson Duke 30.1 29.6 31.6
Rutgers Penn St. -28.1 -26.4 -29.3
Kansas St. Texas Tech -4.8 -4.7 -4.7
East Carolina Connecticut 12.7 12.1 13.2
Temple South Florida 15.3 14.1 16.7
Georgia Massachusetts 51.8 47.9 52.7
Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern -9.6 -8.7 -9.3
Tennessee Missouri -13.0 -11.1 -14.3
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 20.3 17.1 19.2
Maryland Ohio St. -16.4 -16.0 -17.4
Louisville North Carolina St. -17.1 -16.9 -17.7
Central Florida Cincinnati 15.6 14.0 15.1
Auburn Liberty 36.4 35.5 37.3
Charlotte Florida Int’l. -8.6 -9.9 -8.5
BYU New Mexico St. 31.1 29.9 31.9
Wyoming Air Force 1.2 0.5 0.1
Colorado Utah -13.2 -11.5 -13.3
Colorado St. Utah St. -26.3 -27.1 -28.0
Notre Dame Syracuse 16.2 14.9 15.9
Appalachian St. Georgia St. 24.7 24.7 26.1
Marshall UTSA 24.9 23.6 25.7
California Stanford -5.0 -4.8 -5.2
Oregon Arizona St. 1.6 2.8 2.5
Washington St. Arizona 13.2 13.5 12.6
San Jose St. Nevada -15.4 -14.7 -17.0
Baylor TCU -1.4 -1.5 0.3
Navy Tulsa 1.1 3.5 0.8
Texas A&M UAB 18.6 14.6 17.9
Mississippi St. Arkansas 23.4 23.7 25.2
Oklahoma St. West Virginia -5.4 -6.2 -4.9
Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech -4.1 -3.0 -4.4
Akron Bowling Green 9.8 10.2 9.5
LSU Rice 54.4 50.8 56.2
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 2.5 3.2 2.6
Florida St. Boston College -8.5 -7.6 -9.4
Oklahoma Kansas 27.7 27.9 29.4
Washington Oregon St. 38.8 38.8 40.7
Arkansas St. UL-Monroe 4.8 5.6 5.7
Troy Texas St. 22.1 20.9 23.6
Louisiana South Alabama 12.1 12.8 13.4
Virginia Tech Miami (Fla.) -3.6 -3.2 -3.5
Western Kentucky UTEP 8.4 8.3 9.0
Nebraska Michigan St. -11.1 -10.1 -11.5
Texas Iowa St. 2.2 2.2 1.8
UCLA USC -7.4 -6.3 -8.6
Fresno St. San Diego St. 20.1 19.7 20.3
Hawaii UNLV 1.8 2.5 0.5

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Florida Idaho 33.0
Alabama Citadel 58.2
Army Colgate 21.2
Old Dominion VMI 20.9
North Carolina Western Carolina 25.6
South Carolina Chattanooga 36.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.0 128.8 130.7 129.8
4 Georgia 129.0 126.5 130.2 128.5
5 Notre Dame 125.2 122.7 124.3 124.0
6 Ohio St. 123.2 121.3 123.2 122.6
7 Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.2 121.7
8 Washington 121.3 119.2 121.9 120.8
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 118.7 117.8 119.5 118.7
11 Missouri 118.3 116.9 119.3 118.1
12 West Virginia 118.2 117.3 117.6 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.3 115.7 118.1 117.4
14 Michigan St. 116.6 114.5 116.1 115.8
15 Boston College 116.3 114.1 116.1 115.5
16 Auburn 115.4 114.1 116.7 115.4
17 Utah 115.6 114.0 116.0 115.2
18 Iowa 115.5 113.6 115.1 114.7
19 Iowa State 114.6 113.1 114.4 114.0
20 Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9
21 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
22 Central Florida 113.7 113.9 113.8 113.8
23 Washington St. 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
24 Fresno St. 113.6 113.1 114.0 113.6
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.6 114.2 113.6
26 Texas 113.8 112.3 113.3 113.1
27 Utah St. 111.2 112.7 112.5 112.1
28 Miami 112.8 111.1 111.9 112.0
29 Florida 111.8 110.1 112.3 111.4
30 Syracuse 111.9 110.8 111.4 111.4
31 Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3
32 Northwestern 111.7 110.1 111.7 111.2
33 Wisconsin 112.1 109.5 111.2 110.9
34 S. Carolina 111.5 110.3 111.0 110.9
35 Kentucky 110.7 109.4 110.6 110.2
36 Boise St. 110.3 109.8 110.4 110.2
37 N. Carolina St. 110.5 109.7 109.9 110.0
38 Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9
39 Texas Tech 110.5 109.1 109.5 109.7
40 Purdue 110.0 108.4 109.8 109.4
41 Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2
42 Oklahoma St. 109.8 108.1 109.7 109.2
43 Pittsburgh 109.1 108.6 108.9 108.9
44 California 108.1 106.0 108.1 107.4
45 U S C 108.0 106.4 107.2 107.2
46 Virginia Tech 106.2 104.9 105.4 105.5
47 Virginia 105.7 105.8 104.9 105.5
48 Temple 104.1 104.3 105.0 104.5
49 T C U 105.4 103.9 103.6 104.3
50 Florida St. 104.8 103.6 103.8 104.0
51 Vanderbilt 103.6 103.6 103.9 103.7
52 Arizona 104.1 102.7 104.4 103.7
53 Army 103.3 104.0 103.5 103.6
54 Ole Miss 103.6 103.0 103.8 103.4
55 Memphis 102.3 103.6 103.1 103.0
56 Wake Forest 104.2 102.3 102.4 102.9
57 Maryland 103.7 102.3 102.8 102.9
58 Tennessee 102.3 102.7 101.9 102.3
59 Kansas St. 102.8 101.4 101.7 102.0
60 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
61 Nebraska 102.6 101.4 101.7 101.9
62 Buffalo 100.5 102.5 101.8 101.6
63 Baylor 102.0 100.4 101.8 101.4
64 BYU 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8
65 Houston 100.2 100.7 100.4 100.4
66 Ohio U 99.5 100.7 100.4 100.2
67 N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9
68 Indiana 100.2 99.1 100.0 99.8
69 Minnesota 100.4 99.1 99.7 99.7
70 Appalachian St. 98.5 100.4 100.1 99.6
71 Colorado 99.4 99.6 99.7 99.6
72 U A B 98.3 101.0 99.3 99.6
73 Northern Illinois 98.6 99.6 99.0 99.1
74 Arkansas 100.1 97.8 99.2 99.0
75 U C L A 99.1 98.6 97.1 98.2
76 Toledo 97.4 98.7 97.2 97.8
77 N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7
78 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
79 Nevada 96.6 96.8 97.0 96.8
80 Air Force 96.3 97.1 97.0 96.8
81 San Diego St. 96.5 96.5 96.8 96.6
82 Kansas 97.4 95.9 95.8 96.4
83 Tulane 95.8 96.3 95.7 95.9
84 Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.7 95.7 95.9
85 Miami (O) 94.4 96.2 96.6 95.7
86 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
87 Wyoming 95.0 95.1 94.6 94.9
88 SMU 95.0 94.6 94.3 94.6
89 Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.3 94.4 94.4
90 Troy 92.6 94.0 94.3 93.6
91 Louisiana Tech 91.8 93.8 92.5 92.7
92 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
93 Illinois 92.0 91.4 90.7 91.4
94 Florida Int’l. 89.7 93.4 90.4 91.2
95 Arkansas St. 89.4 90.9 90.9 90.4
96 Louisville 90.9 90.3 89.7 90.3
97 Tulsa 90.0 89.6 90.0 89.9
98 Western Michigan 88.7 90.3 89.7 89.6
99 Georgia Southern 88.8 90.4 89.2 89.5
100 Navy 88.1 90.0 87.8 88.7
101 Akron 87.9 88.9 87.6 88.2
102 UL-Monroe 87.0 87.7 87.8 87.5
103 Rutgers 87.7 86.7 86.3 86.9
104 Southern Miss. 85.6 88.7 86.0 86.8
105 New Mexico 84.7 85.8 84.2 84.9
106 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
107 Louisiana 82.8 85.1 84.3 84.1
108 East Carolina 83.8 83.7 83.5 83.7
109 Old Dominion 82.2 85.4 82.1 83.3
110 U N L V 81.9 82.8 82.1 82.3
111 Colorado St. 82.0 82.6 81.5 82.0
112 Liberty 82.0 81.5 82.4 82.0
113 Central Michigan 80.3 82.4 80.5 81.1
114 Massachusetts 80.2 81.6 80.5 80.8
115 Hawaii 80.2 81.8 79.1 80.4
116 Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.3 80.4
117 Bowling Green 80.1 80.7 80.1 80.3
118 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
119 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
120 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3
121 San Jose St. 78.7 79.6 77.5 78.6
122 Coastal Carolina 77.2 79.7 77.9 78.3
123 Georgia St. 76.3 78.1 76.4 76.9
124 U T E P 73.1 76.2 73.1 74.1
125 Connecticut 74.1 74.6 73.3 74.0
126 Texas State 73.0 75.6 73.2 73.9
127 South Alabama 73.2 74.8 73.3 73.8
128 U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8
129 N. Mexico St. 72.3 74.1 72.2 72.9
130 Rice 67.3 70.0 66.3 67.9

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.7 113.9 113.8 113.8 6-0 9-0
Temple 104.1 104.3 105.0 104.5 5-1 6-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 5-1 9-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-3 7-3
East Carolina 83.8 83.7 83.5 83.7 0-6 2-7
Connecticut 74.1 74.6 73.3 74.0 0-6 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 102.3 103.6 103.1 103.0 3-3 6-4
Houston 100.2 100.7 100.4 100.4 4-2 7-3
Tulane 95.8 96.3 95.7 95.9 4-2 5-5
SMU 95.0 94.6 94.3 94.6 4-2 5-5
Tulsa 90.0 89.6 90.0 89.9 1-5 2-8
Navy 88.1 90.0 87.8 88.7 1-5 2-8
AAC Averages 95.0 95.6 95.0 95.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 7-0 10-0
Boston College 116.3 114.1 116.1 115.5 4-2 7-3
Syracuse 111.9 110.8 111.4 111.4 5-2 8-2
N. Carolina St. 110.5 109.7 109.9 110.0 3-3 6-3
Florida St. 104.8 103.6 103.8 104.0 2-5 4-6
Wake Forest 104.2 102.3 102.4 102.9 2-4 5-5
Louisville 90.9 90.3 89.7 90.3 0-7 2-8
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9 4-3 6-4
Miami 112.8 111.1 111.9 112.0 2-4 5-5
Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3 3-3 7-3
Pittsburgh 109.1 108.6 108.9 108.9 5-1 6-4
Virginia Tech 106.2 104.9 105.4 105.5 3-3 4-5
Virginia 105.7 105.8 104.9 105.5 4-2 7-3
N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9 1-6 1-8
ACC Averages 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.2 121.7 6-1 9-1
West Virginia 118.2 117.3 117.6 117.7 6-1 8-1
Iowa State 114.6 113.1 114.4 114.0 5-2 6-3
Texas 113.8 112.3 113.3 113.1 5-2 7-3
Texas Tech 110.5 109.1 109.5 109.7 3-4 5-5
Oklahoma St. 109.8 108.1 109.7 109.2 2-5 5-5
T C U 105.4 103.9 103.6 104.3 2-5 4-6
Kansas St. 102.8 101.4 101.7 102.0 2-5 4-6
Baylor 102.0 100.4 101.8 101.4 3-4 5-5
Kansas 97.4 95.9 95.8 96.4 1-6 3-7
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.0 128.8 130.7 129.8 7-0 9-1
Ohio St. 123.2 121.3 123.2 122.6 6-1 9-1
Penn St. 118.3 115.7 118.1 117.4 4-3 7-3
Michigan St. 116.6 114.5 116.1 115.8 5-3 6-4
Maryland 103.7 102.3 102.8 102.9 3-4 5-5
Indiana 100.2 99.1 100.0 99.8 2-5 5-5
Rutgers 87.7 86.7 86.3 86.9 0-7 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 115.5 113.6 115.1 114.7 3-4 6-4
Northwestern 111.7 110.1 111.7 111.2 6-1 6-4
Wisconsin 112.1 109.5 111.2 110.9 4-3 6-4
Purdue 110.0 108.4 109.8 109.4 4-3 5-5
Nebraska 102.6 101.4 101.7 101.9 2-5 3-7
Minnesota 100.4 99.1 99.7 99.7 2-5 5-5
Illinois 92.0 91.4 90.7 91.4 2-5 4-6
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 3-3 5-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 4-2 6-3
Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.3 94.4 94.4 6-1 7-3
Florida Int’l. 89.7 93.4 90.4 91.2 5-1 7-3
Old Dominion 82.2 85.4 82.1 83.3 2-5 3-7
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-3 4-6
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-6 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 98.3 101.0 99.3 99.6 7-0 9-1
N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7 3-3 7-3
Louisiana Tech 91.8 93.8 92.5 92.7 5-1 7-3
Southern Miss. 85.6 88.7 86.0 86.8 2-4 3-6
U T E P 73.1 76.2 73.1 74.1 1-5 1-9
U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8 2-4 3-7
Rice 67.3 70.0 66.3 67.9 0-7 1-10
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.2 122.7 124.3 124.0 x 10-0
Army 103.3 104.0 103.5 103.6 x 8-2
BYU 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8 x 5-5
Liberty 82.0 81.5 82.4 82.0 x 4-5
Massachusetts 80.2 81.6 80.5 80.8 x 4-7
N. Mexico St. 72.3 74.1 72.2 72.9 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.9 94.1 94.0 94.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 100.5 102.5 101.8 101.6 6-0 9-1
Ohio U 99.5 100.7 100.4 100.2 4-2 6-4
Miami (O) 94.4 96.2 96.6 95.7 4-2 4-6
Akron 87.9 88.9 87.6 88.2 2-4 4-5
Bowling Green 80.1 80.7 80.1 80.3 1-5 2-8
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3 1-5 2-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Northern Illinois 98.6 99.6 99.0 99.1 6-0 7-3
Toledo 97.4 98.7 97.2 97.8 3-3 5-5
Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.7 95.7 95.9 4-3 6-5
Western Michigan 88.7 90.3 89.7 89.6 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 80.3 82.4 80.5 81.1 0-7 1-10
Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.3 80.4 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.2 112.7 112.5 112.1 6-0 9-1
Boise St. 110.3 109.8 110.4 110.2 5-1 8-2
Air Force 96.3 97.1 97.0 96.8 2-4 4-6
Wyoming 95.0 95.1 94.6 94.9 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.7 85.8 84.2 84.9 1-5 3-7
Colorado St. 82.0 82.6 81.5 82.0 2-4 3-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 113.6 113.1 114.0 113.6 5-1 8-2
Nevada 96.6 96.8 97.0 96.8 4-2 6-4
San Diego St. 96.5 96.5 96.8 96.6 4-2 7-3
U N L V 81.9 82.8 82.1 82.3 1-5 3-7
Hawaii 80.2 81.8 79.1 80.4 3-3 6-5
San Jose St. 78.7 79.6 77.5 78.6 1-5 1-9
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.3 119.2 121.9 120.8 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 4-3 6-4
Washington St. 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 6-1 9-1
Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2 3-4 6-4
California 108.1 106.0 108.1 107.4 3-4 6-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-6 2-8
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.6 114.0 116.0 115.2 5-3 7-3
Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9 4-3 6-4
U S C 108.0 106.4 107.2 107.2 4-4 5-5
Arizona 104.1 102.7 104.4 103.7 4-3 5-5
Colorado 99.4 99.6 99.7 99.6 2-5 5-5
U C L A 99.1 98.6 97.1 98.2 2-5 2-8
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 129.0 126.5 130.2 128.5 7-1 9-1
Missouri 118.3 116.9 119.3 118.1 2-4 6-4
Florida 111.8 110.1 112.3 111.4 5-3 7-3
S. Carolina 111.5 110.3 111.0 110.9 4-4 5-4
Kentucky 110.7 109.4 110.6 110.2 5-3 7-3
Vanderbilt 103.6 103.6 103.9 103.7 1-5 4-6
Tennessee 102.3 102.7 101.9 102.3 2-4 5-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 7-0 10-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-4 6-4
L S U 118.7 117.8 119.5 118.7 5-2 8-2
Auburn 115.4 114.1 116.7 115.4 3-4 6-4
Texas A&M 113.9 112.6 114.2 113.6 4-3 6-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.0 103.8 103.4 1-5 5-5
Arkansas 100.1 97.8 99.2 99.0 0-6 2-8
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.5 100.4 100.1 99.6 5-1 7-2
Troy 92.6 94.0 94.3 93.6 6-0 8-2
Georgia Southern 88.8 90.4 89.2 89.5 4-2 7-3
Coastal Carolina 77.2 79.7 77.9 78.3 2-4 5-5
Georgia St. 76.3 78.1 76.4 76.9 1-5 2-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.4 90.9 90.9 90.4 3-3 6-4
UL-Monroe 87.0 87.7 87.8 87.5 4-2 6-4
Louisiana 82.8 85.1 84.3 84.1 3-3 5-5
Texas State 73.0 75.6 73.2 73.9 1-5 3-7
South Alabama 73.2 74.8 73.3 73.8 1-5 2-8
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

PiRate Ratings of the Conferences

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
6 AAC 95.0 95.6 95.0 95.2
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.9 94.1 94.0 94.0
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Utah State
  3. Cincinnati
  4. UAB
  5. Army

 

Bowl and Playoff Projections

With two weeks remaining in the regular season plus a weekend of conference championship games, most of the conference races are getting quite interesting. The good news for the bowls this year is that there is now about a one in one hundred thousand chance that a team with a losing record will be needed. Actually, chances are maybe 98% that there will be bowl eligible teams that do not receive bowl bids, even some teams with seven and eight wins.

As we project the bowl and playoff bids today, we believe six bowl eligible teams will be left out of the bowl picture. There are already 64 bowl eligible teams with close to 20 more needing just one more win. Let’s take a look at each conference and show you where they stand today and where we think they will finish.

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic
Both division races have interesting key games this weekend. In the East, Central Florida hosts Cincinnati. If the Golden Knights win to remain undefeated, they will clinch the East Division title. However, if one-loss Cincinnati pulls off the win, and Temple beats South Florida, then there will be a three-way tie for first with one game to go. All three have very winnable final games, so at 7-1, there would be a tiebreaker involved, and Cincinnati would get the nod several layers down in the tie-breaking procedure.

Houston looked like a cinch to win the West Division until back-to-back losses to SMU and Temple knocked the Cougars into a three-way tie with SMU and surprising Tulane. Tulane and Houston square off in Houston this weekend, while SMU plays tough Memphis. This race will come down to the last weekend, and SMU has the advantage as of today.

Already Bowl Eligible: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Temple, South Florida, Houston, and Memphis

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Tulane and SMU

 

Conference USA
This league will fall shy of the number of bowl eligible teams compared to last year, but there will still be seven conference teams available for the seven bowl tie-ins the league has this year.

The East Division is down to a three-team race between Florida International, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. Middle currently leads FIU by a half-game in the standings, but the Blue Raiders close with a home game against the top team in the league in UAB. FIU beat Middle and holds the tie-breaker edge, but the Panthers must still beat Marshall.

There is a chance that the three contenders will all finish 6-2, if UAB beats Middle, and Marshall beats FIU. Should that happen, Middle Tennessee would win the tie-breaker well down the procedure list.

UAB has already clinched the West Division championship, but the Blazers have something more to play for. It is a long shot, but if UAB could pull off the big upset at Texas A&M,then win at Middle Tennessee, and then win the CUSA Championship Game, the Blazers could be in the mix for a Peach Bowl bid should Central Florida lose to somebody other than Cincinnati and both Utah State and Boise State lose another game. The Blazers would be 12-1 in this situation.

Already Bowl Eligible: Florida International, Middle Tennessee, Marshall, UAB, North Texas, and Louisiana Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Florida Atlantic
Independents
We don’t count Notre Dame in this section, because the Irish are classified with the Power Five conferences. Army is already bowl eligible and will definitely get an at-large bid to a bowl. BYU needs one more win, and the Cougars face a weak New Mexico State team this week, so they should get that win. They are also guaranteed an at-large bid to a bowl that ESPN sponsors.

Liberty will most likely finish 6-6, but the Flames are ineligible in their transition year in FBS. There is a loophole for Liberty to become bowl eligible if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, but as we said before, there will be most likely six bowl eligible teams more than needed this year.

Already Bowl Eligible: Army

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: BYU (& Liberty in reserve)

 

Mid-American
The two MAC races are basically sewn up with two weeks to go. Buffalo has a two-game lead over Ohio U in the East, and even if the Bulls lose at Ohio this week, they would also have to lose against lowly Bowling Green next week, while Ohio then beats Akron. We don’t see Buffalo finishing 0-2, and the Bulls have a better chance to finish 2-0 and stay alive in the New Year’s 6 Bowl race.

Northern Illinois is in the same boat as Buffalo in the West Division race. The Huskies lead Western Michigan by two games, and even though NIU and WMU face off in the regular season finale, the only way that game will determine the division title is if NIU loses at home to Miami of Ohio this week and WMU wins at Ball St. Miami is trying to sneak into bowl eligibility and needs wins over NIU and Ball State, but we don’t see the Red Hawks competing with the Huskies this week.

Already Bowl Eligible: Buffalo, Ohio U, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Toledo

 

Mountain West
Both races are still undecided with two week to go. Boise State’s big win over Fresno State gave the Broncos a big boost, for if they win out against New Mexico in Albuquerque and Utah State on the Blue Field, then Boise takes the Mountain Division crown.
Utah State plays at Colorado State in a game that mean nothing toward the Mountain Division race, but it means everything if the Aggies want to sneak into the Fiesta Bowl as the Group of 5 representative. If USU beats CSU and then knocks off Boise in Boise, the Aggies would enter the MWC Championship Game needing a win and a UCF loss to earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.

In the West Division, Fresno State is still in control of the race, but the Bulldogs have been exposed with questionable offensive and defensive lines. San Diego State and Nevada are just one game back with two to go, and SDSU and Fresno play this weekend in Fresno. Should the Aztecs recover from a late swoon and pull off the upset, then there could be a three-way tie for first at 6-2. Fresno State would win the tie-breaker.

Already Bowl Eligible: Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and San Diego State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Hawaii and Wyoming

 

Sun Belt
Technically, three teams are still alive in the East Division, as Troy is 6-0, Appalachian State is 5-1, and Georgia Southern is 4-2. However, Troy hosts a very weak Texas State team this week, and a Trojan win eliminates GSU. The regular season finale sends Troy to Appy State, and the winner of that game will win the division title.

The West Division race is also a three-team affair, but the three teams all have legitimate chances of capturing the flag. UL-Monroe leads Louisiana and Arkansas State by a game, but they conclude the regular season playing both contenders–Arkanasas State in Jonesboro and Louisiana in Monroe. Obviously, If ULM wins both games, they win the division title. If they lose one of the two games, then the team that beats them will win the division title if they also win their other game. Louisiana’s other game is a home game with South Alabama, while Arky State plays at Texas State. If both Arky State and Louisiana beat ULM, then Louisiana wins the division.

Already Bowl Eligible: Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Monroe, and Arkansas St.

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Coastal Carolina and Louisiana

 

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Can anybody in this league beat Clemson that still might play the Tigers this year? Duke and South Carolina are not likely candidates, so it figures that CU will enter the ACC Championship Game at 12-0. Who the Tigers will play is still a question with two weeks to go.

After losing to a North Carolina team that has not won another game this year, Pittsburgh did not look like a bowl eligible team at all. The Panthers were 2-3 with two lopsided losses (Penn State and Central Florida). A 3-9 record looked possible at that point, because the back end of the schedule looked brutal. After an upset of Syracuse and a near miss loss at Notre Dame, Pitt was still 3-4 and not looking like they would find three more wins on their schedule. Consecutive wins over Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, have placed the Panthers into first place in the Coastal Division with two games to go. Both games are on the road but winnable against mediocre teams. The problem for the Panthers is that both Wake Forest and Miami are fighting for bowl eligibility, and it would not surprise us if one of the two knock the Panthers off their perch. Pittsburgh will still win the division if they split their final two games, but should the unthinkable happen, and they lose both games, then it throws this division race into a mad world.
Virginia would have a chance to win the division, but the Cavaliers play their final two games on the road against a fast-closing Georgia Tech, and a Virginia Tech team that might be 5-5 and needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech all have three conference losses, but the chances that any of the three can win the division are quite remote. And, in the end, who really wants to get drubbed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game?

Already Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Miami

 

Big 12
This is another interesting race with four teams contending for the two Championship Game bids. Oklahoma (6-1) and West Virginia (6-1) control their own destiny, but since they still must play each other, at least one of these two teams might no longer control their destiny.

Iowa State (5-2) would sneak into the Big 12 Championship Game, should they beat Texas and Kansas State and Oklahoma beats West Virginia. Texas (5-2) would be the second team if the Longhorns beat Iowa State and Kansas and West Virginia beats Oklahoma.
Should West Virginia lose at Oklahoma State this week and then beat Oklahoma, then there could be a three-way tie at 7-2, with one of the teams eliminated. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Texas finish tied in this scenario, Texas and Oklahoma would play for the Big 12 Championship. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Iowa State finish tied in this scenario, then Iowa State and West Virginia would play for the title.

Already Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, and Iowa State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and  Baylor

 

Big Ten
The East race is down to the same two teams that have always competed for the Big Ten title. Michigan faces Ohio State in Columbus in two weeks, and the winner will face Northwestern for the Big Ten Championship.
Obviously, the Wolverines are playing for a lot more than just the league title. Wins over Indiana, Ohio State, and Northwestern will clinch a spot in the Playoffs. Ohio State has a minimal chance of making the playoffs by closing out with wins over Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern can win the Rose Bowl bid by upsetting either team in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Already Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota

Pac-12
The North Division race will be determined in the Palouse when the Washington Huskies visit Washington State for the Apple Cup. Stanford has been eliminated by virtue of losing to both Olympic State teams.
The South Division is still quite chaotic. Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah have three conference losses, while USC has four. Arizona State is the current tiebreaker leader by virtue of a win over Utah, while Utah drubbed Arizona and holds second place today. However, Arizona has not played Arizona State, and should the Wildcats beat the Sun Devils, and there is a multiple way tie at 5-4 with three or four teams, the possibilities are not endless, but they seem to appear that way. USC is not in the race, even if they finish in a first place tie. In the event of a tie at 5-4 between Arizona State, Arizona, USC, and Utah, the Utes win the tiebreaker. In another scenario, if Colorado beats Utah, Oregon beats Arizona State, and then Arizona State beats Arizona, then Arizona State wins the division at 5-4 no matter what USC does.
Already Bowl Eligible: Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, Utah, and Arizona State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: USC and Arizona

 

Southeastern
This is a race that is already determined. Alabama and Georgia will play in the SEC Championship Game no matter what they do the rest of the season. We expect they will both win out. Georgia finishes with two non-conference opponents. They can name the score with UMass, and they should be able to slow down the Georgia Tech option game and run over the Techsters to finish 11-1. Alabama could score 100 points this week against The Citadel if Nick Saban was Barry Switzer or Bill Yeoman, but we expect a possible 56-0 halftime score to lead to a 77-0 win at most. Then, Alabama should handle Auburn in Tuscaloosa to finish 12-0.
Georgia would have to win the SEC Championship to get into the Playoffs unless a lot of nearly impossible events leave a trail of two loss teams in the wake. If the Bulldogs upset the Tide, then most likely Georgia would move up to number two and Alabama would fall to number three, leaving Michigan in a bind.

Already Bowl Eligible: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Auburn

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: South Carolina and Tennessee

Here are this week’s playoff and bowl projections.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Middle Tennessee
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati Troy
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton AAC CUSA SMU Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Memphis [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Missouri
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Indiana North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC North Carolina St. Tennessee
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Washington
Belk ACC SEC Virginia South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia LSU
Military AAC ACC Temple Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Baylor Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Purdue Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Central Florida Utah
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

FBS Playoff Projections

Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Syracuse Louisville 10.5 Syracuse
Texas A&M Ole Miss 1.5 Texas A&M
Kansas St. Kansas 22 Kansas

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
West Virginia TCU 1.5 WVU
Eastern Michigan Akron 3 EMU
Duke North Carolina Pk Duke

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arizona St. UCLA 2.5 Arizona St.
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 9.5 Oklahoma
Purdue Minnesota 2.5 Purdue

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulane East Carolina 3.5 Tulane
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 10 Florida Atlantic
Georgia Auburn 24.5 Auburn

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cinciannati East Carolina 2.5 Cincinnati
Texas Tech Texas 8.5 Texas
UAB Southern Miss. 2.5 UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 4 NC St.
Florida South Carolina 20 S. Car.
BYU Massachusetts 27 UMass
Troy Georgia Southern 14.5 Ga. Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Kentucky 7 Kentucky
Colorado Washington St. 7 Washington St.
Louisiana Georgia St. 1 Louisiana
South Alabama UL-Monroe 7.5 UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win Must Lose
Ohio U Miami (O)
Northern Illinois Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Florida
Kansas Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Chicago 6.5 Chicago
Kansas City Arizona 3.5 Kansas City
Tennessee New England 6.5 New England
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10 Indianapolis

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Miami Green Bay 3 Green Bay
Seattle L.A. Rams 3 L.A. Rams
Dallas Philadelphia 6.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Cincinnati New Orleans 41 Over
Cleveland Atlanta 37.5 Over
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 24 Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Kent St. 22.1 23.1 23.3

 

Wednesday November 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Ohio U -3.7 -3.3 -2.3
Northern Illinois Toledo 0.2 -0.1 0.5

 

Thursday November 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 11.7 13.2 13.5

 

Friday November 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse Louisville 22.9 22.1 23.2
Boise St. Fresno St. -2.0 -2.3 -2.9

 

Saturday November 10
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Temple 1.8 2.5 1.5
Rutgers Michigan -40.1 -39.9 -42.5
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
Boston College Clemson -19.6 -19.4 -20.6
Texas A&M Ole Miss 13.3 12.4 13.2
Tennessee Kentucky -13.0 -11.2 -13.3
Massachusetts BYU -16.5 -15.3 -16.5
Virginia Liberty 26.1 26.9 25.1
Georgia Southern Troy 1.2 1.6 0.3
Iowa St. Baylor 15.8 16.1 16.0
Central Florida Navy 30.0 28.3 30.8
West Virginia TCU 10.6 11.0 11.6
Georgia Tech Miami (Fla.) 4.3 5.0 5.0
Kansas St. Kansas 7.3 7.4 8.1
Eastern Michigan Akron 7.4 7.7 7.8
Indiana Maryland -1.4 -1.1 -0.7
Connecticut SMU -18.9 -18.4 -19.5
Duke North Carolina 13.9 12.9 13.7
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 16.1 16.7 16.7
Iowa Northwestern 9.0 9.0 8.9
Cincinnati South Florida 12.9 13.2 13.9
Coastal Carolina Arkansas St. -6.5 -5.4 -7.2
Tulane East Carolina 15.3 16.1 15.9
Utah Oregon 9.7 8.1 9.5
Colorado Washington St. -9.1 -7.5 -8.2
Marshall Charlotte 18.1 18.4 18.4
Old Dominion North Texas -15.6 -14.6 -16.5
Central Michigan Bowling Green 8.0 10.0 8.5
Nevada Colorado St. 12.8 12.2 13.3
Stanford Oregon St. 32.1 31.9 33.6
UTEP Middle Tennessee -17.5 -16.1 -18.8
Georgia Auburn 15.9 14.6 15.6
Penn St. Wisconsin 8.8 8.8 9.5
Alabama Mississippi St. 24.1 24.3 24.7
Air Force New Mexico 14.2 13.7 14.9
Missouri Vanderbilt 19.1 17.4 20.0
Nebraska Illinois 12.8 12.0 12.8
Minnesota Purdue -14.2 -13.9 -14.7
Memphis Tulsa 12.6 14.5 13.2
Florida South Carolina 3.1 2.4 4.3
USC California 3.9 4.5 3.1
Texas Tech Texas 1.2 1.5 1.0
Arkansas LSU -16.4 -18.2 -18.7
Utah St. San Jose St. 35.3 35.7 38.0
Texas St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -20.3 -22.5
Louisiana Georgia St. 9.0 9.2 10.1
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 20.9 19.3 20.9
South Alabama UL-Monroe -7.7 -6.4 -8.0
Louisiana Tech Rice 28.6 27.9 30.9
UTSA Florida Int’l. -10.3 -9.9 -10.4
Notre Dame Florida St. 21.8 20.2 21.6
UAB Southern Miss. 17.2 16.8 17.8
Michigan St. Ohio St. -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Arizona St. UCLA 16.3 15.5 18.6
San Diego St. UNLV 22.7 21.7 23.1

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0
4 Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4
5 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
6 Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7
7 Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0
8 Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2
11 Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8
12 Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
14 Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9
15 Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6
17 Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3
18 West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0
19 Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6
20 Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4
21 Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2
22 Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0
23 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
24 Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5
26 Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2
27 Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5
28 Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3
29 Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1
30 Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0
31 N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9
32 Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6
33 Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3
34 Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1
35 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
36 Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0
37 Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8
38 Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5
39 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
40 Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2
41 Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0
42 Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0
43 Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2
44 U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7
45 T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9
46 California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9
47 Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1
49 Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
50 Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6
51 Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4
54 Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0
55 Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8
56 Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2
57 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
58 Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
59 Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8
60 Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4
61 Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2
62 Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1
64 BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6
65 U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6
66 Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5
67 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4
68 Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7
69 N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
71 N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5
72 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
74 Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5
75 Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5
76 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
77 U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0
78 Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9
79 Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5
80 Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4
81 Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1
82 Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9
83 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
84 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4
85 SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0
86 Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6
87 Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6
88 Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5
89 Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3
90 Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6
91 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
92 Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9
93 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
94 Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2
95 Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0
96 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5
98 Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4
99 Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0
100 Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8
101 Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9
102 Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7
103 Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8
104 UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6
105 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
106 Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5
107 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
108 Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1
109 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
110 East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2
111 Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7
112 Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5
113 Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0
114 Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5
115 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
116 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
117 Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2
118 Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1
119 U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0
120 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
121 San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7
122 Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8
123 Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3
124 U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3
125 South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7
126 Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8
127 U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0
128 Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6
129 N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6
130 Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6 5-0 8-0
Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8 4-1 5-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 4-1 8-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-2 7-2
East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-5 2-6
Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9 2-3 5-4
Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8 4-1 7-2
Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4 3-2 4-5
SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0 3-2 4-5
Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0 1-4 2-7
Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9 1-4 2-7
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 6-0 9-0
Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8 4-1 7-2
N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9 2-2 6-2
Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0 4-2 7-2
Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 2-5 4-5
Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1 1-4 4-5
Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2 0-6 2-7
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 3-3 5-4
Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1 2-3 5-4
Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6 2-3 6-3
Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 3-2 4-4
Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7 4-2 6-3
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1 4-1 5-4
N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6 1-5 1-7
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7 5-1 8-1
West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0 5-1 7-1
Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2 4-2 5-3
Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3 4-2 6-3
Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5 3-3 5-4
Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2 2-4 5-4
T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9 2-4 4-5
Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2 1-5 3-6
Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2 3-3 5-4
Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1 1-5 3-6
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0 6-0 8-1
Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0 5-1 8-1
Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7 5-2 6-3
Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 3-3 6-3
Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 3-3 5-4
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7 0-6 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9 3-3 6-3
Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2 4-2 5-4
Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1 4-2 6-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-4
Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4 1-5 2-7
Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9 1-5 4-5
Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9 2-4 4-5
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 2-3 4-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 3-2 5-3
Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5 5-1 6-3
Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0 4-1 6-3
Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-5 1-8
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-2 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6 6-0 8-1
N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5 3-2 7-2
Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6 4-1 6-3
Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8 2-3 3-5
U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3 2-3 3-6
U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0 1-4 1-8
Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0 0-6 1-9
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 9-0
Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6 x 7-2
BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6 x 4-5
Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7 x 4-4
Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5 4-1 6-3
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4 5-0 8-1
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4 3-2 3-6
Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5 2-3 4-4
Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5 1-4 2-7
Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7 3-2 5-4
Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9 5-0 6-3
Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6 3-3 5-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1 0-6 1-9
Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0 5-0 8-1
Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0 4-1 7-2
Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5 1-4 3-6
Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-4 3-6
Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4 5-0 8-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 4-1 7-2
Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3 3-2 5-4
Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1 3-3 6-5
U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0 0-5 2-7
San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7 1-4 1-8
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 3-3 5-4
Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5 5-1 8-1
Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2 3-3 6-3
California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9 2-4 5-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-5 2-7
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3 4-3 6-3
Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8 3-3 5-4
U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7 4-3 5-4
Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4 4-3 5-5
Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2 2-4 5-4
U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0 2-4 2-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4 6-1 8-1
Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8 1-4 5-4
Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0 5-2 7-2
Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3 4-3 6-3
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 4-3 5-3
Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5 1-4 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 6-0 9-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-3 6-3
L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2 4-2 7-2
Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6 3-3 6-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5 3-3 5-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-4 5-4
Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 4-1 6-2
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 5-0 7-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7 4-1 7-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-3 5-4
Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3 1-4 2-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8 2-3 5-4
UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6 3-2 5-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-3 4-5
South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7 1-4 2-7
Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8 1-4 3-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Fresno St.
  3. Utah St.
  4. Cincinnati
  5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Houston [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 SMU [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Buffalo]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Boston College Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. UL-Monroe
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Central Florida Kentucky
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large North Carolina St. West Virginia
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Iowa St. Kansas 4 Iowa St.
Air Force Army 3 Army
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3.5 Eastern Michigan
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wyoming San Jose St. 3.5 Wyoming
Illinois Minnesota 0.5 Minnesota
Cincinnati Navy 3 Cincinnati
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Boston College Virginia Tech 12 Virginia Tech
Michigan Penn St. 20.5 Penn St.
Missouri Florida 4 Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston SMU 3.5 Houston
Northwestern Notre Dame 1 Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 7 Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Northern Illinois Akron 19.5 Akron
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 0.5 Middle Tennessee
Kentucky Georgia 4 Georgia
Rice UTEP 14 UTEP

 

Money Line Parlays
3 Teams @ +172
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Kentucky
Notre Dame Northwestern
3 Teams @ +125
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Missouri
Minnesota Illinois
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky
4 Teams @+180
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Wake Forest
Army Air Force
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan
Wyoming San Jose St.
2 Teams @+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win Must Lose
Texas A&M Auburn
Arizona St. Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Oakland 13 Oakland
Chicago Buffalo Pk Chicago
Tampa Bay Carolina 3.5 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Kansas City 1.5 Kansas City
Washington Atlanta 12 Atlanta
Green Bay New England 4.5 New England

 

13-point Teasers 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Detroit 18 Detroit
Baltimore Pittsburgh 16 Pittsburgh
Seattle L.A. Chargers 15 L.A. Chargers
Houston Denver 9 Denver
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
San Francisco Oakland 32.5 Over
Minnesota Detroit 35.5 Over
Cleveland Kansas City 38.5 Over
Miami N.Y. Jets 32 Over
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Baltimore Pittsburgh 57.5 Under
Washington Atlanta 33.5 Over
Seattle L.A. Chargers 35 Over
New England Green Bay 66.5 Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Miami (O) 8.1 8.5 7.0
Bowling Green Kent St. 2.5 1.6 2.6

 

Wednesday October 31
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Toledo Ball St. 20.1 19.3 20.4

 

Thursday November 1
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Ohio U -2.0 -1.6 -1.9
Akron Northern Illinois -2.7 -2.4 -2.7
Central Florida Temple 15.0 15.2 14.6

 

Friday November 2
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Pittsburgh 7.3 8.3 7.2
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 16.7 15.3 17.2
Arizona Colorado 4.9 2.6 4.4

 

Saturday November 3
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU Houston -9.4 -10.6 -10.8
Purdue Iowa -0.3 0.1 -0.2
Georgia St. Texas St. 8.9 8.0 9.2
Wake Forest Syracuse -4.1 -4.7 -5.4
Kentucky Georgia -10.3 -8.5 -11.3
Cincinnati Navy 9.7 9.2 10.5
Ohio St. Nebraska 25.6 24.9 27.1
North Carolina Georgia Tech -11.4 -11.3 -11.6
Florida Missouri 1.6 1.3 1.3
Miami (Fla.) Duke 6.7 7.0 6.7
North Carolina St. Florida St. 7.7 8.0 7.8
East Carolina Memphis -15.1 -16.9 -16.5
Virginia Tech Boston College -2.6 -1.3 -2.8
Maryland Michigan St. -8.6 -7.8 -8.9
Texas Tech Oklahoma -9.2 -9.3 -10.7
Texas West Virginia 0.9 0.3 0.9
Wisconsin Rutgers 30.9 29.5 32.0
Northwestern Notre Dame -11.5 -10.6 -10.6
Illinois Minnesota -8.6 -8.2 -9.4
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 13.0 12.1 13.2
Army Air Force 12.3 12.5 12.4
South Florida Tulane 4.7 6.1 4.3
Coastal Carolina Appalachian St. -16.8 -16.1 -17.6
Boise St. BYU 13.1 12.1 12.6
New Mexico San Diego St. -11.5 -10.3 -12.2
Wyoming San Jose St. 19.3 18.4 20.6
Washington St. California 8.6 9.9 8.6
Southern Miss. Marshall -8.5 -8.0 -9.2
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia Southern -7.1 -8.8 -7.6
Arizona St. Utah -6.8 -6.6 -7.8
Oregon UCLA 13.4 13.6 16.3
Washington Stanford 9.8 10.2 10.6
Kansas Iowa St. -12.2 -12.1 -13.9
Auburn Texas A&M 4.6 4.8 6.2
Tennessee Charlotte 24.9 22.8 23.9
Mississippi St. Louisiana Tech 27.6 23.1 27.2
Baylor Oklahoma St. -6.6 -6.7 -6.9
Massachusetts Liberty 1.2 3.8 1.5
TCU Kansas St. 8.4 8.5 7.8
Tulsa Connecticut 17.8 16.6 19.0
Clemson Louisville 47.2 44.7 48.9
Michigan Penn St. 9.1 10.6 9.8
Ole Miss South Carolina -5.0 -4.4 -4.1
Rice UTEP -3.6 -4.0 -4.8
Troy Louisiana 11.7 10.8 11.9
Arkansas St. South Alabama 13.3 12.9 14.3
UAB UTSA 20.7 19.2 20.8
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic -1.3 1.7 -0.8
LSU Alabama -17.5 -15.8 -17.5
UNLV Fresno St. -28.7 -26.7 -28.9
Hawaii Utah St. -24.1 -23.7 -26.5
Oregon St. USC -20.4 -21.1 -21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
New Mexico St. Alcorn St. 10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3
2 Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1
3 Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8
4 Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7
5 Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0
6 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
7 Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9
8 Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8
9 L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4
10 Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8
11 Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6
12 Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9
13 Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5
14 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
15 Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6
17 Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9
18 Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8
19 West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8
20 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
21 Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1
22 Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9
23 Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9
24 Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4
26 Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1
27 Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0
28 Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9
29 Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7
30 Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5
31 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
32 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
33 N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7
34 Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3
35 Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2
36 Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1
37 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
38 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6
39 Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6
40 Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6
41 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5
42 Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8
43 U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0
44 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9
45 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
46 T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2
47 California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7
48 Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9
49 Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1
50 Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0
51 Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0
54 Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0
55 Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7
56 Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7
57 Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4
58 Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1
59 Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9
60 Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9
61 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3
62 Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3
63 Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1
64 Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0
65 BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8
66 Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8
67 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
68 N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5
69 N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2
70 Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2
71 Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1
72 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
73 Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4
74 Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2
75 U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4
76 Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2
77 Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0
78 U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8
79 Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7
80 Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0
81 Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7
82 South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5
83 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4
84 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1
85 Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8
86 Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3
88 Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2
89 Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0
90 Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5
91 Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4
92 Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1
93 Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4
94 SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3
95 Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2
96 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
97 Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0
98 Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4
99 Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8
100 Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0
101 Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5
102 Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3
103 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
104 Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1
105 Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2
106 Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1
107 Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0
108 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
109 East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2
110 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6
111 U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8
112 Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5
113 Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5
114 Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5
115 Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2
116 Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2
117 W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4
118 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
119 Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4
120 Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2
121 Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1
122 U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1
123 Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8
124 San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4
125 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0
126 Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8
128 Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0
129 N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8
130 Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1 3-1 7-1
South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5 3-1 7-1
East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5 4-0 7-1
Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5 2-2 3-5
Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4 1-3 2-6
SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3 2-2 3-5
Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8 0-4 1-7
AAC Averages 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1 5-0 8-0
Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 6-2
N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7 1-2 5-2
Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6 3-2 6-2
Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9 2-4 4-4
Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4 1-3 4-4
Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1 0-5 2-6
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9 2-3 4-4
Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9 2-2 5-3
Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1 1-3 5-3
Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6 3-1 4-3
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 4-1 6-2
Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0 3-1 4-4
N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5 1-4 1-6
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0 4-1 7-1
West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8 4-1 6-1
Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9 3-2 4-3
Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5 4-1 6-2
Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2 3-2 5-3
Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6 2-3 5-3
T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2 1-4 3-5
Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9 1-4 3-5
Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8 2-3 4-4
Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2 1-4 3-5
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8 3-2 6-2
Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5 4-2 5-3
Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0 3-2 5-3
Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-2 6-2
Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1 3-2 4-4
Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0 3-2 5-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-3
Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3 1-4 4-4
Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0 1-4 2-6
Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0 1-4 3-5
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7 3-1 5-2
Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3 4-1 5-3
Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2 1-3 3-5
Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0 4-0 6-2
Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4 0-4 1-7
Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8 3-2 4-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2 3-2 7-2
U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8 5-0 7-1
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1 4-1 6-2
Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1 2-2 3-4
U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8 0-4 0-8
Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2 0-5 1-8
CUSA Averages 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 8-0
Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1 x 6-2
BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8 x 4-4
Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 3-6
N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8 x 2-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3 4-0 7-1
Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0 3-1 5-3
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4 3-1 3-5
Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4 2-2 4-3
Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4 2-2 4-4
Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7 2-3 4-5
Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0 4-0 5-3
Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2 4-1 6-3
Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0 0-5 1-8
Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5 2-3 3-6
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3 4-0 7-1
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5 4-1 6-2
Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7 1-4 3-5
Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8 1-4 3-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-3 3-5
Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 4-0 7-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 3-1 6-2
Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0 3-2 5-4
U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8 0-4 2-6
Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5 3-2 6-4
San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4 1-3 1-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8 4-2 6-3
Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6 3-2 5-3
Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7 4-1 7-1
Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8 2-3 5-3
California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7 2-3 5-3
Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1 1-4 2-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9 4-2 6-2
U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0 3-3 4-4
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9 2-3 4-4
Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0 3-3 4-5
Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1 2-3 5-3
U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4 2-3 2-6
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8 5-1 7-1
Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7 0-4 4-4
Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8 5-1 7-1
Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1 4-2 6-2
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 3-3 4-3
Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1 1-4 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3 5-0 8-0
L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4 4-1 7-1
Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6 2-3 5-3
Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6 2-3 5-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4 3-2 5-3
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-3 5-3
Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4 4-0 7-1
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 4-0 6-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-2 5-3
Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2 1-3 2-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5 1-3 4-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-2 4-4
UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6 2-2 4-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0 1-3 2-6
Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0 0-4 2-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
7 MWC 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
10 CUSA 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Fresno St.
3 Houston
4 Utah St.
5 Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA [California] Utah St.
Cure AAC SBC [Eastern Michigan] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Coastal Carolina
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC At-Large South Florida [Arizona]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] Middle Tennessee
Bahamas MAC CUSA Northern Illinois Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Western Michigan]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Memphis [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Georgia Tech Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Nevada] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [BYU]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Virginia Tech Tennessee
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Troy
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Georgia
Military AAC ACC Temple Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Purdue Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Fiesta At-large At-large Kentucky Houston
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

October 24, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 25-29, 2018

After a successful week of picking, the PiRates are going heavy with 10-point and 13-point teaser selections this week.  Last week, our teasers were 8-2 against the spread, but that still didn’t get us out of the hole we dug the prior couple of weeks.

Leading the way for our Land Sharps last week, Stewed Meat went 6-1 to get back on the plus side of 52.5%, the break even point when selecting games at 11-10 odds.  Once again, all 5 Land Sharps are above the 52.5% level.

When the Sharps each sent in their picks, it looked to us like this is going to be a tough week.  The last week before the Autumn winds of November come into play can be a tough one to call.  It seems like favorites cover better this week than they do in any month in November.  Maybe injury attrition and just plain old bumps and bruises begin to affect the games more, and obviously inclement weather begins to play a part in games.  We actually saw some snow at the Wisconsin-Illinois game last week.  When the temperatures drop into the sub-freezing zone, the ball doesn’t feel the same way it does when it’s 70 degrees.  It becomes harder to throw, catch, kick, or hold onto when being hit by opposing players.

The Land Sharps

1. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 20-13-1 60.6% ROI: 16.8%

Virginia Tech  -2.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Georgia -6.5 vs. Florida

USC -6.5 vs. Arizona St.

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 24-17-0  58.5%  ROI: 12.9%

Arkansas +1.5 vs. Vanderbilt

USC -6.5 vs. Arizona St.

Stanford -3 vs. Washington St.

 

3. Friday Dog 13–Season: 22-16-1  57.9%  ROI: 11.3%

Clemson -16.5 vs. Florida St.

Washington -11.5 vs. California

Oklahoma -24.5 vs. Kansas St.

Notre Dame -23.5 vs. Navy

Colorado -24 vs. Oregon St.

 

4. Dean615–Season: 17-13-1  56.7%  ROI: 8.7%

Notre Dame -23.5 vs. Navy

Iowa +6.5 vs. Penn St.

Boston College +3.5 vs, Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St. -2.5 vs. Purdue

Pittsburgh +3 vs. Duke

Wisconsin -7 vs. Northwestern

Texas A&M +2.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

5. Stewed Meat–25-20-0  55.6%  ROI: 6.7%

Western Michigan -6.5 vs. Toledo

Georgia Southern +8.5 vs. Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina -3.5 vs. Georgia St.

Louisiana +3 vs. Arkansas St.

Florida Int’l. -3.5 vs. Western Kentucky

 

The PiRate Ratings

College 10-point 
Teasers 3 Games @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Toledo Western Michigan 3.5 Western Michigan
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 7.5 Virginia Tech
Appalachian St. Georgia Southern 18.5 Georgia Southern
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Vanderbilt Arkansas 11.5 Arkansas
Duke Pittsburgh 12.5 Pittsburgh
Utah St. New Mexico 30.5 New Mexico
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina Virginia 1 Virginia
Georgia Florida 17 Florida
Arizona St. USC 3.5 USC
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Maryland Illinois 8 Maryland
Washington California 1.5 Washington
UAB UTEP 6 UAB
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Penn St. Iowa 16.5 Iowa
Arkansas St. Louisiana 13 Louisiana
Syracuse North Carolina St. 7.5 North Carolina St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Mississippi St. Texas A&M 12.5 Texas A&M
Western Kentucky Florida Int’l. 6.5 Florida Int’l.
Arizona Oregon 0.5 Oregon
College 13-point 
Teasers 4 Games @13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Miami (Fla.) Boston College 16.5 Boston College
Minnesota Indiana 10.5 Indiana
Oklahoma St. Texas 9.5 Texas
San Diego St. Nevada 16 Nevada
NFL 10-point 
Teasers 3 Games @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
N. Y. Jets Chicago 3 Chicago
Cleveland Pittsburgh 2 Pittsburgh
N.Y. Giants Washington 9 Washington
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Kansas City Denver Pk Kansas City
Baltimore Carolina 12 Carolina
New Orleans Minnesota 11 Minnesota
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay L.A. Rams 1 L.A. Rams
New England Buffalo 4 New England
Arizona San Francisco 11 San Francisco
 

NFL 13-point 

 

Teaser

 

4 games

 

@13-10

Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Houston Miami 31 Over
Kansas City Denver 41.5 Over
Pittsburgh Cleveland 63.5 Under
Washington N.Y. Giants 29 Over

 

October 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 9

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:23 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 23
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
South Alabama Troy -11.2 -10.6 -11.9

 

Thursday October 25
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Toledo 1.0 1.6 2.2
Ohio U Ball St. 14.0 13.0 14.9
Georgia Southern Appalachian St. -8.3 -8.3 -9.2
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 3.9 4.1 4.0
West Virginia Baylor 12.4 13.2 11.7

 

Friday October 26
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Miami (Fla.) 1.5 0.3 1.4
Minnesota Indiana 3.6 3.6 3.3
UCLA Utah -13.9 -12.4 -17.0
Colorado St. Wyoming -8.0 -7.1 -7.6
Florida Atlantic Louisiana Tech 5.3 3.7 4.6

 

Saturday October 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Old Dominion Middle Tennessee -6.5 -4.5 -7.7
Syracuse North Carolina St. -0.5 -1.6 -1.3
Virginia North Carolina 10.4 11.6 10.3
Akron Central Michigan 9.6 8.5 9.7
Pittsburgh Duke -8.1 -6.9 -8.2
Maryland Illinois 16.4 15.5 16.5
Louisville Wake Forest -3.8 -1.6 -2.4
Northwestern Wisconsin -4.3 -3.6 -4.2
Eastern Michigan Army -6.0 -5.2 -5.6
Charlotte Southern Miss. -4.4 -5.3 -4.5
Kansas TCU -10.2 -10.4 -10.7
Connecticut Massachusetts -3.1 -4.6 -4.9
Georgia St. Coastal Carolina 3.0 2.5 3.1
Utah St. New Mexico 23.4 23.3 24.6
Colorado Oregon St. 23.7 27.2 26.6
UTEP UAB -20.5 -19.9 -21.7
BYU Northern Illinois 8.2 7.9 9.0
Nevada San Diego St. -3.7 -3.7 -4.2
Stanford Washington St. 7.5 5.9 8.1
USC Arizona St. 4.8 5.0 4.9
California Washington -13.4 -13.9 -15.0
Florida (n) Georgia -13.2 -11.7 -13.1
San Jose St. UNLV -3.9 -4.5 -5.8
Tulsa Tulane -0.4 -1.3 0.6
Mississippi St. Texas A&M 6.9 6.0 7.3
Missouri Kentucky 5.0 4.5 6.4
South Carolina Tennessee 16.3 14.7 16.4
Oklahoma St. Texas -1.1 -1.6 -0.9
North Texas Rice 34.8 34.6 37.3
Houston South Florida 10.0 9.0 10.7
Penn St. Iowa 7.0 6.2 7.2
Michigan St. Purdue 5.9 5.0 5.1
Western Kentucky Florida Int’l. -6.4 -7.3 -6.2
SMU Cincinnati -2.6 -4.6 -3.8
Arkansas Vanderbilt 2.9 0.2 1.8
Oklahoma Kansas St. 19.6 19.7 20.8
Louisiana Arkansas St. -2.4 -1.6 -2.8
Texas St. New Mexico St. 1.2 2.2 1.0
Iowa St. Texas Tech 4.8 4.4 5.6
Air Force Boise St. -11.6 -10.4 -11.6
Florida St. Clemson -23.9 -22.0 -24.9
Notre Dame Navy 36.6 31.7 36.0
Arizona Oregon -8.6 -10.2 -9.1
Fresno St. Hawaii 35.5 33.0 37.0

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Nebraska Bethune-Cookman 36.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

The PiRate Ratings are predictive and not meant to rank teams on what they have done to date.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.6 140.0
2 Clemson 135.5 132.8 136.1 134.8
3 Georgia 128.1 125.0 128.9 127.3
4 Michigan 126.6 125.4 127.2 126.4
5 Notre Dame 124.8 122.0 123.8 123.5
6 Ohio St. 123.2 121.2 123.3 122.6
7 Washington 122.8 120.9 123.9 122.5
8 Oklahoma 121.2 119.9 121.5 120.9
9 Penn St. 121.0 118.4 121.0 120.1
10 L S U 119.8 119.4 121.1 120.1
11 Mississippi St. 118.4 116.1 119.0 117.9
12 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
13 Missouri 116.4 114.9 117.6 116.3
14 Utah 116.3 114.6 117.1 116.0
15 Michigan St. 116.9 114.7 116.2 116.0
16 Miami 116.2 114.8 115.7 115.6
17 Auburn 115.2 114.0 116.8 115.3
18 Wisconsin 115.9 113.4 115.4 114.9
19 Stanford 115.6 113.1 115.8 114.8
20 Florida 114.9 113.3 115.8 114.6
21 Central Florida 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.4
22 Texas A&M 114.5 113.2 114.7 114.1
23 Kentucky 114.4 113.4 114.2 114.0
24 Boston College 114.7 112.1 114.1 113.7
25 Purdue 114.1 112.7 114.1 113.6
26 Texas 113.8 112.4 113.3 113.1
27 Iowa State 113.1 111.5 112.9 112.5
28 N. Carolina St. 112.6 112.1 112.4 112.4
29 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
30 Oregon 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.3
31 Duke 112.9 110.9 112.3 112.1
32 Virginia Tech 112.5 111.5 112.1 112.0
33 West Virginia 112.7 111.7 111.8 112.0
34 S. Carolina 112.5 111.3 112.1 112.0
35 Georgia Tech 111.5 110.4 111.1 111.0
36 Washington St. 111.1 110.2 110.7 110.7
37 Texas Tech 111.3 110.1 110.4 110.6
38 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.8 109.5
39 T C U 110.3 109.1 108.9 109.4
40 Oklahoma St. 109.7 107.8 109.4 108.9
41 U S C 109.5 108.1 109.1 108.9
42 Northwestern 109.1 107.4 108.7 108.4
43 Utah St. 107.6 108.8 108.8 108.4
44 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.1 108.3
45 Florida St. 108.6 107.8 108.2 108.2
46 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
47 Arizona St. 107.7 106.2 107.1 107.0
48 California 106.4 104.0 105.9 105.4
49 Colorado 104.3 105.3 105.4 105.0
50 Army 103.9 104.6 104.1 104.2
51 Kansas St. 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8
52 Maryland 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8
53 Houston 103.2 104.0 103.7 103.6
54 Ole Miss 103.3 102.8 103.6 103.2
55 Baylor 103.3 101.5 103.0 102.6
56 Temple 102.2 102.2 102.9 102.4
57 Memphis 100.8 102.3 101.6 101.6
58 Appalachian St. 100.4 102.2 102.0 101.5
59 Pittsburgh 101.7 101.0 101.1 101.3
60 Vanderbilt 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.1
61 Wake Forest 102.3 100.1 100.1 100.8
62 BYU 100.4 100.9 101.0 100.7
63 San Diego St. 100.0 100.1 100.6 100.2
64 N. Texas 99.1 101.5 99.9 100.1
65 Arizona 100.6 98.9 100.7 100.0
66 Buffalo 99.0 101.0 100.1 100.0
67 Minnesota 100.5 99.4 100.0 100.0
68 N. Carolina 100.2 99.3 99.8 99.8
69 Arkansas 101.0 98.4 99.9 99.8
70 Nebraska 100.6 99.3 99.2 99.7
71 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
72 Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.7 99.2
73 Cincinnati 98.4 100.0 98.8 99.0
74 U C L A 99.5 99.2 97.1 98.6
75 U A B 95.7 98.3 96.6 96.9
76 South Florida 96.2 98.0 96.0 96.7
77 Marshall 95.1 97.7 96.2 96.4
78 Kansas 97.1 95.6 95.2 96.0
79 Toledo 95.5 96.7 95.3 95.8
80 Eastern Michigan 94.9 96.4 95.5 95.6
81 Florida Atlantic 95.2 96.0 95.6 95.6
82 Northern Illinois 95.2 95.9 95.0 95.4
83 Air Force 95.1 95.7 95.2 95.3
84 Louisville 95.5 95.5 94.7 95.2
85 Miami (O) 93.8 95.5 96.1 95.1
86 Ohio U 94.1 95.3 94.8 94.7
87 Western Michigan 93.5 95.2 94.5 94.4
88 Wyoming 94.5 94.5 94.1 94.3
89 Louisiana Tech 92.9 95.3 94.0 94.0
90 Nevada 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.3
91 Tulane 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.1
92 SMU 92.8 92.3 92.0 92.4
93 Middle Tennessee 91.3 92.7 92.2 92.1
94 Navy 91.2 93.3 90.7 91.8
95 Troy 90.8 92.1 92.1 91.7
96 Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.2 89.8 90.8
97 Illinois 91.3 90.7 90.2 90.7
98 Akron 90.1 91.3 90.3 90.6
99 Tulsa 90.3 89.6 90.8 90.2
100 Georgia Southern 89.1 90.9 89.8 89.9
101 Arkansas St. 87.0 88.4 88.5 88.0
102 New Mexico 87.2 88.5 87.1 87.6
103 Southern Miss. 84.4 87.6 85.0 85.7
104 Rutgers 85.9 84.8 84.2 85.0
105 Colorado St. 84.5 85.3 84.4 84.7
106 U N L V 83.4 84.8 83.7 84.0
107 Central Michigan 83.0 85.3 83.2 83.8
108 Ball St. 83.1 85.3 82.9 83.8
109 Old Dominion 82.3 85.7 82.0 83.4
110 Louisiana 82.1 84.3 83.3 83.2
111 East Carolina 83.2 82.9 82.6 82.9
112 UL-Monroe 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.3
113 Oregon St. 83.6 81.1 81.7 82.1
114 W. Kentucky 80.4 83.4 81.1 81.6
115 Liberty 81.4 80.6 81.6 81.2
116 Hawaii 81.0 82.7 79.9 81.2
117 Massachusetts 80.3 82.2 81.0 81.2
118 Georgia St. 78.9 80.8 79.5 79.7
119 Coastal Carolina 78.3 80.8 78.9 79.3
120 Kent St. 78.7 79.9 78.6 79.1
121 Bowling Green 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.8
122 U T S A 77.2 81.2 77.8 78.8
123 Charlotte 77.5 79.9 78.0 78.5
124 South Alabama 76.6 78.5 77.2 77.4
125 San Jose St. 77.0 77.8 75.4 76.7
126 Connecticut 75.2 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.7 75.9 72.5 73.7
128 N. Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5
129 Texas State 71.6 74.4 71.5 72.5
130 Rice 66.2 68.8 64.6 66.6

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.4 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.2 102.2 102.9 102.4 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.4 100.0 98.8 99.0 2-1 6-1
South Florida 96.2 98.0 96.0 96.7 3-0 7-0
East Carolina 83.2 82.9 82.6 82.9 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.2 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 103.2 104.0 103.7 103.6 3-0 6-1
Memphis 100.8 102.3 101.6 101.6 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.1 1-2 2-5
SMU 92.8 92.3 92.0 92.4 2-1 3-4
Navy 91.2 93.3 90.7 91.8 1-3 2-5
Tulsa 90.3 89.6 90.8 90.2 0-3 1-6
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.0 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 135.5 132.8 136.1 134.8 4-0 7-0
Boston College 114.7 112.1 114.1 113.7 2-1 5-2
N. Carolina St. 112.6 112.1 112.4 112.4 1-1 5-1
Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.1 108.3 2-2 5-2
Florida St. 108.6 107.8 108.2 108.2 2-3 4-3
Wake Forest 102.3 100.1 100.1 100.8 0-3 3-4
Louisville 95.5 95.5 94.7 95.2 0-4 2-5
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.2 114.8 115.7 115.6 2-1 5-2
Duke 112.9 110.9 112.3 112.1 1-2 5-2
Virginia Tech 112.5 111.5 112.1 112.0 3-0 4-2
Georgia Tech 111.5 110.4 111.1 111.0 1-3 3-4
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 3-1 5-2
Pittsburgh 101.7 101.0 101.1 101.3 2-1 3-4
N. Carolina 100.2 99.3 99.8 99.8 1-3 1-5
ACC Averages 110.1 108.9 109.5 109.5
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.2 119.9 121.5 120.9 3-1 6-1
Texas 113.8 112.4 113.3 113.1 4-0 6-1
Iowa State 113.1 111.5 112.9 112.5 2-2 3-3
West Virginia 112.7 111.7 111.8 112.0 3-1 5-1
Texas Tech 111.3 110.1 110.4 110.6 3-1 5-2
T C U 110.3 109.1 108.9 109.4 1-3 3-4
Oklahoma St. 109.7 107.8 109.4 108.9 1-3 4-3
Kansas St. 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 1-3 3-4
Baylor 103.3 101.5 103.0 102.6 2-2 4-3
Kansas 97.1 95.6 95.2 96.0 0-4 2-5
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.6 125.4 127.2 126.4 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.2 121.2 123.3 122.6 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 121.0 118.4 121.0 120.1 2-2 5-2
Michigan St. 116.9 114.7 116.2 116.0 3-2 4-3
Maryland 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 2-2 4-3
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-4 4-4
Rutgers 85.9 84.8 84.2 85.0 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-1 6-1
Wisconsin 115.9 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 5-2
Purdue 114.1 112.7 114.1 113.6 3-1 4-3
Northwestern 109.1 107.4 108.7 108.4 4-1 4-3
Minnesota 100.5 99.4 100.0 100.0 0-4 3-4
Nebraska 100.6 99.3 99.2 99.7 1-4 1-6
Illinois 91.3 90.7 90.2 90.7 1-3 3-4
Big Ten Averages 109.0 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.1 97.7 96.2 96.4 3-1 5-2
Florida Atlantic 95.2 96.0 95.6 95.6 1-2 3-4
Middle Tennessee 91.3 92.7 92.2 92.1 3-1 4-3
Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.2 89.8 90.8 3-0 5-2
Old Dominion 82.3 85.7 82.0 83.4 1-4 2-6
W. Kentucky 80.4 83.4 81.1 81.6 0-3 1-6
Charlotte 77.5 79.9 78.0 78.5 2-2 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.1 101.5 99.9 100.1 2-2 6-2
U A B 95.7 98.3 96.6 96.9 4-0 6-1
Louisiana Tech 92.9 95.3 94.0 94.0 3-1 5-2
Southern Miss. 84.4 87.6 85.0 85.7 2-1 3-3
U T S A 77.2 81.2 77.8 78.8 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.7 75.9 72.5 73.7 0-3 0-7
Rice 66.2 68.8 64.6 66.6 0-4 1-7
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.8 122.0 123.8 123.5 x 7-0
Army 103.9 104.6 104.1 104.2 x 5-2
BYU 100.4 100.9 101.0 100.7 x 4-3
Liberty 81.4 80.6 81.6 81.2 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.3 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 2-6
N. Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5 x 2-6
Indep. Averages 93.9 94.2 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.0 101.0 100.1 100.0 4-0 7-1
Miami (O) 93.8 95.5 96.1 95.1 3-1 3-5
Ohio U 94.1 95.3 94.8 94.7 2-1 4-3
Akron 90.1 91.3 90.3 90.6 1-2 3-3
Kent St. 78.7 79.9 78.6 79.1 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.8 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 95.5 96.7 95.3 95.8 1-2 3-4
Eastern Michigan 94.9 96.4 95.5 95.6 2-3 4-4
Northern Illinois 95.2 95.9 95.0 95.4 4-0 4-3
Western Michigan 93.5 95.2 94.5 94.4 4-0 6-2
Central Michigan 83.0 85.3 83.2 83.8 0-4 1-7
Ball St. 83.1 85.3 82.9 83.8 2-2 3-5
MAC Averages 90.0 91.4 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.8 109.5 3-1 5-2
Utah St. 107.6 108.8 108.8 108.4 3-0 6-1
Air Force 95.1 95.7 95.2 95.3 1-3 3-4
Wyoming 94.5 94.5 94.1 94.3 0-4 2-6
New Mexico 87.2 88.5 87.1 87.6 1-2 3-4
Colorado St. 84.5 85.3 84.4 84.7 2-2 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 3-0 6-1
San Diego St. 100.0 100.1 100.6 100.2 3-0 6-1
Nevada 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.3 2-2 4-4
U N L V 83.4 84.8 83.7 84.0 0-3 2-5
Hawaii 81.0 82.7 79.9 81.2 3-1 6-3
San Jose St. 77.0 77.8 75.4 76.7 0-3 0-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.8 120.9 123.9 122.5 4-1 6-2
Stanford 115.6 113.1 115.8 114.8 3-1 5-2
Oregon 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.3 2-2 5-2
Washington St. 111.1 110.2 110.7 110.7 3-1 6-1
California 106.4 104.0 105.9 105.4 1-3 4-3
Oregon St. 83.6 81.1 81.7 82.1 0-4 1-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.3 114.6 117.1 116.0 3-2 5-2
U S C 109.5 108.1 109.1 108.9 3-2 4-3
Arizona St. 107.7 106.2 107.1 107.0 1-3 3-4
Colorado 104.3 105.3 105.4 105.0 2-2 5-2
Arizona 100.6 98.9 100.7 100.0 2-3 3-5
U C L A 99.5 99.2 97.1 98.6