The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 14, 2022

American Athletic Conference Preview

Just when a Group of 5 Conference is getting really good with maybe three teams strong enough to contend for a 2022-23 Playoff berth, said league is about to lose all three really good teams. Cincinnati broke through the insiders’ club last year, when the Bearcats ran the table in the regular season and became the first G5 school to receive a bid to the National Championship Playoffs. It was the second consecutive year that Cinti won every regular season game.

Alas, the Bearcats are headed to the Big 12 Conference. Going with them are the other two really good teams–Houston and Central Florida. A host of Conference USA teams will replace the really good teams, and this league will fall back in the Group of 5 pecking order.

This will be one interesting race this year. Houston and Cincinnati are not scheduled to play, but there is a decent chance they will face each other in game 13 in December.

American Athletic Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati111.2110.3112.8111.4
Houston105.0104.7106.5105.4
UCF103.8104.5104.6104.3
SMU102.2101.3102.3101.9
East Carolina99.599.1100.499.7
Tulane98.697.797.998.1
Memphis97.097.596.997.1
Tulsa95.894.895.795.4
USF96.294.795.195.3
Navy92.992.191.392.1
Temple80.983.478.681.0
AAC98.598.298.498.3

American Athletic Conference Official Media Poll

Votes
#Team1st PlaceOverall
1Houston7243
2Cincinnati10242
3Central Florida7225
4SMU0187
5Memphis0162
6East Carolina0157
7Tulane0115
8Tulsa093
9South Florida071
10Navy061
11Temple028

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

AACConfOverall
Cincinnati8-012-1
Houston8-011-2
Central Florida7-110-2
SMU5-37-5
East Carolina4-46-6
Memphis3-56-6
Tulsa3-56-6
Tulane2-65-7
South Florida2-63-9
Navy2-63-9
Temple0-82-10

Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game.

December 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–Selection Sunday

This Week’s College Football Game

December 11PiRateMeanBias
ArmyNavy11.211.410.4

Final Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
Added Bowl Game*Ball St.Nevada
BahamasMiddle TennesseeToledo
CureSMUAppalachian St.
BocaKent St.Liberty
New MexicoUTEPSan Diego St.
IndependenceBYUUTSA
Lending TreeCentral MichiganMarshall
L. A.Utah St.Oregon St.
New OrleansUABCoastal Carolina
Myrtle BeachOld DominionGeorgia St.
Famous Idaho PotatoWestern MichiganBoise St.
FriscoNorth TexasAir Force
Armed ForcesTulsaArmy
GasparillaLouisvilleFlorida
HawaiiMemphisHawaii
CamelliaNorthern IllinoisLouisiana
Quick LaneEastern MichiganWyoming
MilitaryVirginiaEast Carolina
BirminghamHoustonSouth Carolina
First ResponderWestern KentuckyMissouri
LibertyWest VirginiaMississippi St.
HolidayNorth Carolina St.UCLA
Guaranteed RateMarylandTexas Tech
FenwayCentral FloridaBoston College
PinstripeVirginia TechPenn St.
Cheez-ItClemsonIowa St.
AlamoOklahomaOregon
Duke’s MayoWake ForestTennessee
Music CityPurdueAuburn
Las VegasWisconsinWashington St.
Tax Slayer GatorMiami (Fla.)Arkansas
Tony The Tiger SunNorth CarolinaArizona St.
ArizonaMiami (O)Fresno St.
CitrusIowaKentucky
OutbackMinnesotaTexas A&M
TexasKansas St.LSU
PeachPitt/WakeNotre Dame
FiestaMichigan St.Oklahoma St.
RoseOhio St.Utah
SugarBaylorOle Miss
CottonMichiganGeorgia
OrangeAlabamaCincinnati
ChampionshipAlabamaGeorgia
  • An extra bowl game was added by the NCAA to ensure all 6-win teams could earn bowl invitations. This extra bowl will be played in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and will include two group of 5 teams.
  • Teams in bold have officially accepted the bowl bid.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia133.8
2Alabama132.9
3Ohio St.130.4
4Michigan127.5
5Notre Dame121.9
6Oklahoma St.121.5
7Utah121.2
8Oklahoma120.4
9Iowa St.120.1
10Cincinnati119.6
11Texas A&M118.6
12Clemson117.2
13Wisconsin116.5
14Ole Miss116.2
15Baylor116.1
16U C L A115.0
17Penn St.114.8
18Arkansas114.7
19Auburn114.1
20Pittsburgh113.9
21Kentucky113.1
22NC State112.7
23Mississippi St.112.0
24Tennessee111.9
25L S U111.5
26Purdue111.4
27Minnesota111.1
28Arizona St.110.3
29Oregon St.110.3
30North Carolina110.2
31Miami (Fla.)110.1
32BYU109.8
33Louisiana109.7
34Florida109.6
35West Virginia109.4
36Wake Forest109.3
37Kansas St.109.3
38Nebraska109.3
39Iowa109.3
40Appalachian St.109.2
41Washington St.109.2
42Oregon109.0
43Michigan St.108.2
44Texas107.5
45Boise St.106.4
46Houston106.0
47Nevada105.4
48Louisville105.3
49Florida St.105.3
50Coastal Carolina104.7
51California104.6
52Texas Tech104.2
53Fresno St.104.1
54Air Force103.9
55U S C103.6
56Virginia103.4
57Washington103.1
58Virginia Tech102.6
59Army102.5
60Central Michigan102.1
61T C U101.8
62SMU101.8
63Illinois101.6
64Western Kentucky101.4
65South Carolina100.6
66Missouri100.3
67East Carolina100.0
68Maryland99.9
69Utah St.99.5
70Toledo99.4
71Boston College99.3
72UCF98.8
73Tulsa98.7
74Georgia St.98.7
75Liberty98.6
76Colorado98.6
77Miami (Ohio)98.4
78San Diego St.98.4
79U A B98.2
80Syracuse97.9
81U T S A97.7
82Tulane95.2
83Georgia Tech95.1
84Memphis94.6
85Western Michigan94.5
86Stanford94.3
87Marshall94.3
88Rutgers93.8
89Ball St.93.8
90Indiana93.3
91Hawaii92.9
92Wyoming92.4
93Arizona92.3
94Eastern Michigan92.1
95Northwestern91.9
96Northern Illinois91.7
97Navy91.5
98Kent St.90.4
99North Texas90.3
100Middle Tennessee90.2
101South Alabama89.8
102Colorado St.88.9
103San Jose St.88.6
104Buffalo88.3
105Troy88.0
106USF87.4
107Georgia Southern87.0
108Florida Atlantic86.3
109Ohio86.1
110Kansas85.7
111Old Dominion85.7
112U N L V85.2
113U T E P84.5
114Vanderbilt84.0
115UL-Monroe83.2
116Texas St.83.0
117Arkansas St.82.8
118Duke80.2
119Rice80.0
120Louisiana Tech79.7
121New Mexico78.0
122Southern Miss.77.6
123Bowling Green77.1
124Charlotte77.0
125Akron72.5
126Temple72.4
127New Mexico St.71.8
128Connecticut68.6
129Florida Int’l.65.9
130UMass64.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati119.3118.9120.7119.6
Houston105.9105.4106.6106.0
SMU101.7101.5102.1101.8
East Carolina99.899.5100.8100.0
UCF99.097.799.898.8
Tulsa98.598.599.198.7
Tulane95.294.296.195.2
Memphis94.194.395.394.6
Navy91.391.192.191.5
USF87.486.988.087.4
Temple72.373.071.872.4

AAC Averages96.896.597.596.9


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson116.7116.8118.0117.2
NC State112.5112.3113.2112.7
Wake Forest109.3109.1109.6109.3
Louisville104.9105.0105.9105.3
Florida St.104.9105.2105.7105.3
Boston College99.499.299.399.3
Syracuse98.098.097.897.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Pittsburgh113.4114.3114.2113.9
North Carolina109.7109.7111.1110.2
Miami (Fla.)110.4109.8110.2110.1
Virginia103.3103.8103.0103.4
Virginia Tech103.0102.5102.4102.6
Georgia Tech95.195.195.095.1
Duke80.680.779.380.2

ACC Averages104.4104.4104.6104.5


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma St.121.8121.5121.3121.5
Oklahoma121.2119.6120.3120.4
Iowa St.120.8119.4120.1120.1
Baylor116.5115.9115.8116.1
West Virginia110.7109.1108.4109.4
Kansas St.110.1109.3108.5109.3
Texas108.5106.8107.2107.5
Texas Tech104.5104.5103.7104.2
T C U102.9101.4101.2101.8
Kansas87.485.783.985.7

Big 12 Averages110.4109.3109.0109.6


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.130.0130.0131.3130.4
Michigan126.6127.5128.4127.5
Penn St.114.0114.6115.8114.8
Michigan St.108.0108.1108.6108.2
Maryland100.699.799.499.9
Rutgers93.294.793.593.8
Indiana93.393.093.493.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin116.1115.9117.3116.5
Purdue110.8110.8112.6111.4
Minnesota110.3111.0112.2111.1
Nebraska109.0109.1109.8109.3
Iowa109.1108.9109.9109.3
Illinois101.1101.6102.2101.6
Northwestern92.092.091.891.9

Big Ten Averages108.2108.4109.0108.5


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Western Kentucky100.3101.7102.2101.4
Marshall94.094.394.794.3
Middle Tennessee89.790.290.790.2
Florida Atlantic86.086.786.286.3
Old Dominion84.885.986.385.7
Charlotte76.677.277.277.0
Florida Int’l.65.965.965.865.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B98.098.498.398.2
U T S A97.298.098.097.7
North Texas89.990.590.690.3
U T E P84.285.284.084.5
Rice80.180.179.880.0
Louisiana Tech80.080.278.879.7
Southern Miss.77.478.077.477.6

CUSA Averages86.086.686.486.3


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame121.1121.9122.7121.9
BYU109.8109.5110.0109.8
Army102.5102.5102.5102.5
Liberty98.598.698.698.6
New Mexico St.72.172.770.771.8
Connecticut69.069.567.268.6
UMass65.264.662.464.1

Indep. Averages91.291.390.691.0


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.698.397.398.4
Kent St.90.491.189.790.4
Buffalo89.288.187.588.3
Ohio86.086.585.986.1
Bowling Green77.677.875.877.1
Akron73.672.671.472.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan102.9101.8101.5102.1
Toledo99.899.498.999.4
Western Michigan94.894.893.794.5
Ball St.94.894.292.593.8
Eastern Michigan93.492.190.892.1
Northern Illinois92.591.790.991.7

MAC Averages91.290.789.790.5


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.106.1106.3106.7106.4
Air Force103.5103.8104.5103.9
Utah St.99.199.999.699.5
Wyoming92.092.492.892.4
Colorado St.89.188.988.888.9
New Mexico78.578.377.178.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Nevada105.0106.0105.3105.4
Fresno St.103.2104.3104.9104.1
San Diego St.98.698.498.198.4
Hawaii93.092.992.892.9
San Jose St.88.989.087.888.6
U N L V85.385.085.485.2

MWC Averages95.295.495.395.3


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon St.109.9110.5110.6110.3
Washington St.108.6109.6109.4109.2
Oregon108.2109.1109.7109.0
California103.0105.6105.3104.6
Washington102.7103.4103.1103.1
Stanford94.294.894.094.3

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah120.9121.3121.3121.2
U C L A114.5115.1115.4115.0
Arizona St.109.8110.5110.8110.3
U S C103.7103.4103.6103.6
Colorado98.698.798.498.6
Arizona92.292.392.392.3

Pac-12 Averages105.5106.2106.2106.0


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia133.4133.6134.4133.8
Kentucky112.6113.6113.1113.1
Tennessee111.8111.7112.0111.9
Florida109.2110.1109.4109.6
South Carolina101.1100.7100.2100.6
Missouri100.4100.799.9100.3
Vanderbilt84.184.083.984.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama133.0132.4133.3132.9
Texas A&M118.4118.8118.5118.6
Ole Miss116.0116.1116.3116.2
Arkansas114.7114.7114.7114.7
Auburn114.3113.7114.4114.1
Mississippi St.111.8112.1112.0112.0
L S U111.1111.8111.7111.5

SEC Averages112.3112.4112.4112.4


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.108.9108.7110.1109.2
Coastal Carolina105.5103.8104.6104.7
Georgia St.98.898.398.998.7
Troy88.187.988.188.0
Georgia Southern86.987.187.087.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana110.0109.2110.0109.7
South Alabama90.189.889.489.8
UL-Monroe83.583.482.783.2
Texas St.83.882.482.883.0
Arkansas St.83.183.082.382.8

Sun Averages93.993.493.693.6

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern112.4
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.5
4Pac-12106.0
5Atlantic Coast104.5
6American Athletic96.9
7Mountain West95.3
8Sun Belt93.6
9Independents91.0
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.3

February 21, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:00 am

Sunday, February 21, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
George WashingtonRhode Island-8.7
St. BonaventureDavidson4.1
HoustonCincinnati13.0
TempleSouth Florida1.1
XavierButler9.1
Ohio St.Michigan0.7
RutgersMaryland0.1
IowaPenn St.11.0
NorthwesternWisconsin-3.8
DrakeEvansville15.7
Southern IllinoisValparaiso0.3
San Jose St.UNLV-9.2
WagnerSt. Francis (Pa)6.6
ColgateBoston U14.1
AmericanNavy-3.0

Note: Big Announcement Coming Later Today!

December 11, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 11-14, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:12 am

Picking Games That Will Actually Be Played Harder Than Picking Winners

We moved this feature from Thursday to Friday beginning last week, in hopes that we would stop issuing selections only to have them be cancelled later in the day when games in our parlays and teasers were virus victims. So, what happened last week? Literally five minutes after we posted our selections, our number one selection as far as our confidence in thinking it would be a winner, was cancelled.

We cannot possibly send this out an hour before the Noon Eastern kickoffs, so Friday morning is about as late as we can release this weekly feature. Maybe, we should try to predict who will cancel in the final 24 hours before kickoff?

We were quite hesitant to use Tennessee and Vanderbilt in our selections this week, because the Commodores’ roster looks like a retail store about five weeks after they have begun to liquidate with a “going out of business” sale. They have 44 players remaining on the team, but they have just one defensive end left on the roster, and two real linebackers. They have been forced to use small defensive backs at linebacker and offensive linemen in the defensive line. One of the healthy defensive backs, a true freshman and one of the very few 4-star recruits suffered the tragic loss of his mother and has been left with three siblings that he will now become their legal guardian. He’s all of 18 years old.

If you want to contribute something to this family facing a tragic loss of having both father and mother pass away, the four teenage kids could use a little Holiday Season support. For what it’s worth, the Vanderbilt freshman, DeRickey Wright, is not only on athletic scholarship at Vanderbilt, he is on academic scholarship. His three sisters are aged 16, 14, and 10. A Go Fund Me account has been set up to help the family. Rather than ask you not to use our selections here as real betting advice, we ask you to consider donating a little to help this family in their worst time of grief.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/j3m97-wright-family

This Week’s Selections

1. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Arizona St.Arizona-0.5
GeorgiaMissouri-3
NebraskaMinnesota-0.5
2. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Ball St.Western Mich.+8
ToledoCentral Mich.-1
TroyCoastal Carolina+23.5
3. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
North CarolinaMiami (Fla.)+13
TennesseeVanderbilt-5.5
Boise St.Wyoming-1
4. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
FloridaLSU-13
AuburnMississippi St.+3.5
USCUCLA+7.5
5. Money Line Parlay @+131.55
Must WinOpponentOdds
ArmyNavy
Virginia TechVirginia+131.55
6. Money Line Parlay @ +160
Must WinOpponentOdds
UtahColorado
NorthwesternIllinois+160
7. NFL 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
ChicagoHouston+11.5
N.Y. GiantsArizona+12.5
DetroitGreen Bay+17.5

September 27, 2020

College PiRate Ratings DELAYED

The Reinstatement of the Pac-12, Mountain West, and Mid-American Conferences, as well as Independent UMass, has caused a somewhat lengthy delay in our college football ratings update for this coming week.

Because the PiRate Ratings use an algorithm with a cumulative par rating of 100.0 for the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings, we cannot simply place the original August ratings for the teams that decided in the last week to play football. Doing so would throw the cumulative par well below 100.0.

We cannot simply add the necessary amount needed per team to raise the par values to 100.0 for multiple reasons. First, the amount needed to be added to each of the three ratings would be totally different. Why would a team all of a sudden become .2 points better in the Mean, but .4 points better in the Bias? Actually, some teams might gain points in one rating and lose points in another. That would not be just or accurate.

Second, why would you reward a team with points that is obviously struggling at the present time, while at the same time punish a team that hasn’t played yet by keeping their rating where it was when everybody was 0-0?

When the Big Ten returned, we had to raise some ratings and lower others to keep the overall par at 100.0 for our three different algorithms, and to be quite frank, we had to use some one-time extracurricular data to come to a conclusion.

The need to reincorporate the teams is vital thanks to the Navy-Air Force game this weekend. The Mountain West is looking to return at the end of October, but the Air Force Academy is scheduled to play Navy this Saturday as part of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy series. We cannot issue power ratings for Air Force until we have done the work to reincorporate all the teams that will return to play in 2020.

As of this writing, the Pac-12, Mountain West, and Mid-American Conferences are on board with a late October or early November re-start. UMass plans to attempt to find some teams to play and hopefully get in six games. Old Dominion, New Mexico State, and Connecticut still plan to take off this season, but New Mexico State hopes to play a half-dozen games in the Spring against FCS, Division II, and possibly Connecticut with a remote possibility that they could play UMass.

As an aside to this, keep an eye on New Mexico State basketball coach Chris Jans. The Aggies are not completely sure their basketball team will be able to play in 2020-2021. If the Aggies cancel their basketball season, expect multiple Power Conference schools to move Jans up high on their lists of potential head coaches if they have a vacancy. If you follow our college basketball coverage, you know that we rate coaches by their ability to improve their teams’ offensive efficiency, while weakening their opponents’ offensive efficiencies. In the Winter of 2020, our analysis rated Jans as number one overall among Mid-Major and Low-Major coaches in his ability to improve the talent on his roster above the norm. In 2019, we named Eric Musselman, then of Nevada, as number one and predicted that a Power Conference school would hire him and not regret it. Arkansas was that fortunate school to hire Muss, and Muss has the Razorbacks moving forward toward a top 20 program quickly. It is our opinion that Jans has the competency to do for a Power Conference school what Musselman has done for Arkansas. If NMSU does not play basketball this season, we believe Jans will take another job for 2021-2022.

August 31, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sep 3-7

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:11 am

This Week’s Games

Favorite

Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Southern Miss.

South Alabama

7.3

6.5

9.3

Army

Middle Tenn.

5.2

6.9

4.5

Texas St.

SMU

-22.6

-21.1

-24.1

Memphis

Arkansas St.

18.0

13.9

17.7

Navy

BYU

4.9

4.5

3.3

FBS vs. FCS (PiRate Only)

FBS

FCS

PiRate

UAB

Cent. Arkansas

8.6

Marshall

E. Kentucky

21.5

North Texas

Hou. Baptist

26.9

UTEP

S F Austin

7.8

Note: Game Spreads Have Been Adjusted From Ratings Due To Covid-19 Opt-outs.

This Week’s Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg.

1

Clemson

123.6

124.5

127.8

125.3

2

L S U

123.2

122.5

125.8

123.8

3

Alabama

121.4

122.3

123.3

122.3

4

Georgia

121.1

119.4

121.9

120.8

5

Florida

119.7

119.3

120.8

119.9

6

Auburn

118.0

116.6

117.9

117.5

7

Notre Dame

117.5

116.5

117.7

117.2

8

Oklahoma

116.9

116.9

117.1

117.0

9

Texas A&M

115.7

115.8

115.9

115.8

10

Texas

115.2

113.6

115.3

114.7

11

Oklahoma St.

113.4

112.8

113.6

113.3

12

N. Carolina

111.3

111.5

112.5

111.8

13

Kentucky

110.3

110.5

111.5

110.8

14

Iowa St.

110.9

110.2

110.7

110.6

15

Louisville

110.3

110.9

109.1

110.1

16

Virginia Tech

109.2

109.2

111.3

109.9

17

UCF

109.2

109.6

110.5

109.8

18

Tennessee

109.1

109.0

109.6

109.2

19

Memphis

110.0

108.0

109.3

109.1

20

Cincinnati

109.5

108.3

109.4

109.1

21

S. Carolina

109.3

107.0

108.7

108.3

22

Baylor

108.0

108.1

108.2

108.1

23

Ole Miss

106.7

106.1

108.4

107.1

24

Kansas St.

107.4

106.0

107.5

107.0

25

Florida St.

107.4

105.8

107.7

107.0

26

Virginia

106.6

106.1

106.3

106.4

27

T C U

105.0

102.8

105.1

104.3

28

Houston

104.7

103.2

103.2

103.7

29

Pittsburgh

102.9

104.7

103.1

103.6

30

Miss. St.

104.1

102.5

103.8

103.4

31

Appal. St.

103.0

102.1

104.4

103.2

32

Navy

104.4

102.4

102.3

103.0

33

Louisiana

102.5

101.9

102.3

102.2

34

SMU

102.1

101.5

101.5

101.7

35

BYU

101.9

100.4

101.5

101.3

36

Miami (Fla.)

100.3

103.0

100.3

101.2

37

W. Virginia

100.6

100.7

100.7

100.7

38

Duke

100.3

101.0

99.5

100.2

39

Missouri

99.1

99.2

100.3

99.5

40

Boston Coll.

99.6

99.3

99.6

99.5

41

Texas Tech

99.7

98.5

99.9

99.4

42

Wake Forest

98.4

99.6

98.1

98.7

43

Georgia Tech

98.7

98.0

97.3

98.0

44

W. Kentucky

96.0

97.1

97.0

96.7

45

Temple

96.4

97.0

95.3

96.2

46

Tulsa

97.6

95.7

95.1

96.1

47

Georgia Sou.

95.2

96.2

96.5

96.0

48

Florida Int’l.

95.4

95.2

95.8

95.5

49

Syracuse

94.3

96.6

95.1

95.4

50

Marshall

95.9

95.5

94.6

95.3

51

Tulane

94.8

95.0

94.1

94.6

52

Arkansas

94.7

95.8

92.4

94.3

53

USF

95.3

94.0

93.4

94.2

54

NC State

93.5

93.7

93.6

93.6

55

U A B

93.3

94.0

93.0

93.4

56

Vanderbilt

93.3

92.7

91.8

92.6

57

Arkansas St.

92.0

94.1

91.6

92.6

58

E. Carolina

92.1

92.6

90.9

91.9

59

Southern Miss.

91.1

91.6

91.2

91.3

60

Army

90.1

92.5

89.8

90.8

61

Kansas

89.8

90.0

88.5

89.5

62

Coastal Car.

88.3

88.9

88.7

88.6

63

Middle Tenn.

87.5

88.1

87.8

87.8

64

Troy

87.0

89.0

87.3

87.8

65

Georgia St.

87.8

87.5

87.7

87.7

66

La. Tech

86.5

88.0

87.7

87.4

67

Liberty

86.2

89.1

86.8

87.4

68

Charlotte

86.2

86.5

86.3

86.4

69

Rice

86.2

84.2

85.6

85.3

70

UL-Monroe

84.7

84.9

83.2

84.3

71

S. Alabama

82.8

84.1

80.9

82.6

72

Fla. Atlantic

81.3

83.0

81.4

81.9

73

North Texas

78.1

79.3

78.5

78.7

74

Texas St.

78.0

78.9

76.0

77.6

75

U T S A

76.6

76.3

75.9

76.3

76

U T E P

64.0

67.0

63.6

64.9

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

AAC

Overall

UCF

109.2

109.6

110.5

109.8

0-0

0-0

Memphis

110.0

108.0

109.3

109.1

0-0

0-0

Cincinnati

109.5

108.3

109.4

109.1

0-0

0-0

Houston

104.7

103.2

103.2

103.7

0-0

0-0

Navy

104.4

102.4

102.3

103.0

0-0

0-0

SMU

102.1

101.5

101.5

101.7

0-0

0-0

Temple

96.4

97.0

95.3

96.2

0-0

0-0

Tulsa

97.6

95.7

95.1

96.1

0-0

0-0

Tulane

94.8

95.0

94.1

94.6

0-0

0-0

USF

95.3

94.0

93.4

94.2

0-0

0-0

E. Carolina

92.1

92.6

90.9

91.9

0-0

0-0

AAC Averages

101.5

100.7

100.4

100.9

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

ACC

Overall

Clemson

123.6

124.5

127.8

125.3

0-0

0-0

Notre Dame

117.5

116.5

117.7

117.2

0-0

0-0

N. Carolina

111.3

111.5

112.5

111.8

0-0

0-0

Louisville

110.3

110.9

109.1

110.1

0-0

0-0

Virginia Tech

109.2

109.2

111.3

109.9

0-0

0-0

Florida St.

107.4

105.8

107.7

107.0

0-0

0-0

Virginia

106.6

106.1

106.3

106.4

0-0

0-0

Pittsburgh

102.9

104.7

103.1

103.6

0-0

0-0

Miami (Fla.)

100.3

103.0

100.3

101.2

0-0

0-0

Duke

100.3

101.0

99.5

100.2

0-0

0-0

Boston Coll.

99.6

99.3

99.6

99.5

0-0

0-0

Wake Forest

98.4

99.6

98.1

98.7

0-0

0-0

Georgia Tech

98.7

98.0

97.3

98.0

0-0

0-0

Syracuse

94.3

96.6

95.1

95.4

0-0

0-0

NC State

93.5

93.7

93.6

93.6

0-0

0-0

ACC Averages

104.9

105.4

105.3

105.2

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

116.9

116.9

117.1

117.0

0-0

0-0

Texas

115.2

113.6

115.3

114.7

0-0

0-0

Oklahoma St.

113.4

112.8

113.6

113.3

0-0

0-0

Iowa St.

110.9

110.2

110.7

110.6

0-0

0-0

Baylor

108.0

108.1

108.2

108.1

0-0

0-0

Kansas St.

107.4

106.0

107.5

107.0

0-0

0-0

T C U

105.0

102.8

105.1

104.3

0-0

0-0

W. Virginia

100.6

100.7

100.7

100.7

0-0

0-0

Texas Tech

99.7

98.5

99.9

99.4

0-0

0-0

Kansas

89.8

90.0

88.5

89.5

0-0

0-0

Big 12 Averages

106.7

106.0

106.7

106.5

 

 

Conference USA

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

CUSA

Overall

W. Kentucky

96.0

97.1

97.0

96.7

0-0

0-0

Florida Int’l.

95.4

95.2

95.8

95.5

0-0

0-0

Marshall

95.9

95.5

94.6

95.3

0-0

0-0

U A B

93.3

94.0

93.0

93.4

0-0

0-0

Southern Miss.

91.1

91.6

91.2

91.3

0-0

0-0

Middle Tenn.

87.5

88.1

87.8

87.8

0-0

0-0

La. Tech

86.5

88.0

87.7

87.4

0-0

0-0

Charlotte

86.2

86.5

86.3

86.4

0-0

0-0

Rice

86.2

84.2

85.6

85.3

0-0

0-0

Fla. Atlantic

81.3

83.0

81.4

81.9

0-0

0-0

North Texas

78.1

79.3

78.5

78.7

0-0

0-0

U T S A

76.6

76.3

75.9

76.3

0-0

0-0

U T E P

64.0

67.0

63.6

64.9

0-0

0-0

CUSA Averages

86.0

86.6

86.0

86.2

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Conf.

Overall

BYU

101.9

100.4

101.5

101.3

x

0-0

Army

90.1

92.5

89.8

90.8

x

0-0

Liberty

86.2

89.1

86.8

87.4

x

0-0

Ind. Averages

92.7

94.0

92.7

93.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

SEC

Overall

Georgia

121.1

119.4

121.9

120.8

0-0

0-0

Florida

119.7

119.3

120.8

119.9

0-0

0-0

Kentucky

110.3

110.5

111.5

110.8

0-0

0-0

Tennessee

109.1

109.0

109.6

109.2

0-0

0-0

S. Carolina

109.3

107.0

108.7

108.3

0-0

0-0

Missouri

99.1

99.2

100.3

99.5

0-0

0-0

Vanderbilt

93.3

92.7

91.8

92.6

0-0

0-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

SEC

Overall

L S U

123.2

122.5

125.8

123.8

0-0

0-0

Alabama

121.4

122.3

123.3

122.3

0-0

0-0

Auburn

118.0

116.6

117.9

117.5

0-0

0-0

Texas A&M

115.7

115.8

115.9

115.8

0-0

0-0

Miss. St.

106.7

106.1

108.4

107.1

0-0

0-0

Ole Miss

104.1

102.5

103.8

103.4

0-0

0-0

Arkansas

94.7

95.8

92.4

94.3

0-0

0-0

SEC Averages

110.4

109.9

110.9

110.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

SBC

Overall

Appal. St.

103.0

102.1

104.4

103.2

0-0

0-0

Georgia Sou.

95.2

96.2

96.5

96.0

0-0

0-0

Coastal Car.

88.3

88.9

88.7

88.6

0-0

0-0

Troy

87.0

89.0

87.3

87.8

0-0

0-0

Georgia St.

87.8

87.5

87.7

87.7

0-0

0-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

102.5

101.9

102.3

102.2

0-0

0-0

Arkansas St.

92.0

94.1

91.6

92.6

0-0

0-0

UL-Monroe

84.7

84.9

83.2

84.3

0-0

0-0

S. Alabama

82.8

84.1

80.9

82.6

0-0

0-0

Texas St.

78.0

78.9

76.0

77.6

0-0

0-0

SBC Averages

90.1

90.7

89.9

90.2

This Week’s Free College Pick–And You Get What You Pay For!

We are toning down the selections against the spread this year due to the lack of games each week and the uncertainty of available personnel.  We will issue a minimum of selections and highly urge you to not use this non-advice.  All wagers will be done at the pretend amount of $100 units.

 

1. Money Line Parlay (+103)

        Southern Miss over South Alabama

        Navy over BYU

December 6, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 6-10, 2018

The Land Sharps are taking a week off this week, since they play only college games, and there is just one game.  They will return for the bowls and playoffs.

In the meantime, the PiRate Ratings will go it alone and select our teaser choices for you to look at but not touch.  In other words, please do not wager real currency on what we issue here, as this is for entertainment purposes only.  While, our NFL picks have been on fire now for about a month, this does not mean they won’t stink it up so bad that they need to be sprayed with poopouri.

COLLEGE
13-Point Teaser 4-Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Army Navy 20 Navy
Navy Army 6 Army
Army Navy 27 OVER
Army Navy 53 UNDER

 

N F L

10-Point Teasers 3-Game Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Jacksonville 15.5 Jacksonville
Baltimore Kansas City 3.5 Kansas City
Indianapolis Houston 5 Houston
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay Atlanta 15 Atlanta
New England Miami 17.5 Miami
Cleveland Carolina 9 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland Pittsburgh Pk Pittsburgh
Chicago L.A. Rams 7 L.A. Rams
Minnesota Seattle 7 Seattle
Team Team Total Pick
Kansas City Baltimore 41 OVER
Houston Indianapolis 59.5 UNDER
N.Y. Giants Washington 31 OVER
Team Team Total Pick
New Orleans Tampa Bay 45.5 OVER
Carolina Cleveland 37 OVER
Arizona Detroit 30.5 OVER
13-Point Teaser 4 Game parlay @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Washington N.Y. Giants 9.5 N.Y. Giants
San Francisco Denver 9.5 Denver
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 1 L.A. Chargers
Detroit Arizona 16 Arizona

 

 

 

December 2, 2018

Final Bowl Projections +Army-Navy

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Tulane Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. * California
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Appalachian St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Middle Tennessee
Frisco AAC At-Large Memphis [San Diego St.]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] Southern Miss.
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo * Florida Int’l. *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Virginia Tech]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech * Hawaii *
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Purdue
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Georgia Tech [Western Michigan]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Auburn
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Pittsburgh Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington St.
Belk ACC SEC Virginia South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Wake Forest
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) Stanford
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Vanderbilt
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Utah
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Texas A&M
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Fiesta At-large At-large LSU Michigan
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington *
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Oklahoma
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
* Team has already accepted this bid

 

Saturday December 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Army Navy 14.6 13.3 14.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0
2 Clemson 138.9 136.8 139.7 138.5
3 Georgia 128.9 126.7 130.3 128.6
4 Ohio St. 127.1 125.4 127.4 126.6
5 Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5
6 Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2
7 Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1
8 Washington 122.7 120.8 123.3 122.3
9 Oklahoma 121.8 120.6 121.8 121.4
10 Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9
11 Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4
12 L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6
13 Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8
14 West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
15 Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4
16 Utah 116.4 114.9 116.6 116.0
17 Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3
18 Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2
19 Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8
20 Central Florida 114.2 114.7 114.9 114.6
21 Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4
22 Stanford 114.7 112.6 114.9 114.1
23 Texas 114.0 112.4 113.2 113.2
24 N. Carolina St. 113.2 112.4 112.6 112.7
25 S. Carolina 113.1 111.9 113.0 112.7
26 Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6
27 Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2
28 Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1
29 Fresno St. 112.0 111.6 112.2 111.9
30 Iowa State 112.5 110.8 111.9 111.7
31 Boise St. 111.3 111.1 111.6 111.3
32 Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3
33 Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1
34 Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7
35 Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4
36 Northwestern 110.4 108.8 109.9 109.7
37 Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6
38 Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3
39 Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0
40 Pittsburgh 109.4 108.4 108.8 108.9
41 Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5
42 Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2
43 California 108.1 106.0 107.9 107.3
44 U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3
45 Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0
46 Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9
47 Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9
48 Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8
49 Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6
50 T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6
51 Memphis 104.5 105.7 105.3 105.2
52 Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8
53 Virginia Tech 104.6 103.9 104.2 104.2
54 Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2
55 Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0
56 Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4
57 Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3
58 Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1
59 Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9
60 Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3
61 Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2
62 Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7
63 Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6
64 BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4
65 Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3
66 Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9
67 N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0
69 U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0
70 Buffalo 99.0 100.8 100.0 99.9
71 Appalachian St. 98.3 100.1 99.7 99.4
72 Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5
73 Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5
74 Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7
75 Northern Illinois 96.8 97.9 97.3 97.3
76 Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3
77 U A B 96.2 98.6 97.1 97.3
78 Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0
79 Middle Tennessee 95.9 97.8 96.9 96.9
80 N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5
81 Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9
82 Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8
83 Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6
84 Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9
85 Marshall 93.9 96.2 94.6 94.9
86 Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8
87 San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
88 SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7
89 Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1
90 Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4
91 Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3
92 Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4
93 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0
94 South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8
95 Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7
96 Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9
97 Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7
98 Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6
99 Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5
100 Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4
101 Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1
102 UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4
103 Akron 85.8 86.7 85.5 86.0
104 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3
105 Louisiana 83.7 86.0 85.4 85.0
106 Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7
107 U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5
108 Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4
109 Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3
110 Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0
111 New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6
112 Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6
113 East Carolina 81.9 81.9 81.3 81.7
114 Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5
115 Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9
116 Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8
117 Liberty 80.9 80.4 80.9 80.7
118 San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5
119 Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5
120 Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7
121 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3
122 Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8
123 Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1
124 U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0
125 South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1
126 Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7
127 N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8
128 Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6
129 Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.2 114.7 114.9 114.6 8-0 12-0
Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8 7-1 8-4
Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3 6-2 10-2
South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8 3-5 7-5
East Carolina 81.9 81.9 81.3 81.7 1-7 3-9
Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0 0-8 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.5 105.7 105.3 105.2 5-3 8-5
Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3 5-3 8-4
SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7 4-4 5-7
Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 5-3 6-6
Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9 2-6 3-9
Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4 2-6 3-9
AAC Averages 94.7 95.3 94.7 94.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 138.9 136.8 139.7 138.5 8-0 13-0
N. Carolina St. 113.2 112.4 112.6 112.7 5-3 9-3
Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1 6-2 9-3
Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7 4-4 7-5
Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6 3-5 6-6
Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9 3-5 5-7
Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3 0-8 2-10
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2 4-4 7-5
Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6 5-3 7-5
Pittsburgh 109.4 108.4 108.8 108.9 6-2 7-6
Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5 3-5 7-5
Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9 4-4 7-5
Virginia Tech 104.6 103.9 104.2 104.2 4-4 6-6
N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5 1-7 2-9
ACC Averages 109.3 108.1 108.7 108.7
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.8 120.6 121.8 121.4 8-1 12-1
West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6 6-3 8-3
Texas 114.0 112.4 113.2 113.2 7-2 9-4
Iowa State 112.5 110.8 111.9 111.7 6-3 8-4
Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0 3-6 6-6
Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0 3-6 5-7
T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6 4-5 6-6
Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2 3-6 5-7
Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1 4-5 6-6
Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7 1-8 3-9
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.1 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 127.1 125.4 127.4 126.6 8-1 12-1
Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5 8-1 10-2
Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4 6-3 9-3
Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1 5-4 7-5
Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6 3-6 5-7
Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9 2-7 5-7
Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5 0-9 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4 5-4 8-4
Northwestern 110.4 108.8 109.9 109.7 8-1 8-5
Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3 5-4 6-6
Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2 5-4 7-5
Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8 3-6 4-8
Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2 3-6 6-6
Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1 2-7 4-8
Big Ten Averages 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Middle Tennessee 95.9 97.8 96.9 96.9 7-1 8-5
Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9 3-5 5-7
Marshall 93.9 96.2 94.6 94.9 6-2 8-4
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0 6-2 8-4
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3 2-6 3-9
Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0 4-4 5-7
Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8 2-6 4-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 96.2 98.6 97.1 97.3 7-1 10-3
N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5 5-3 9-3
Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7 5-3 7-5
Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6 4-4 6-5
U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0 2-6 3-9
Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6 1-7 2-11
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7 1-7 1-11
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2 x 12-0
Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4 x 9-2
BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4 x 6-6
Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5 x 4-8
Liberty 80.9 80.4 80.9 80.7 x 6-6
N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8 x 3-9
Indep. Averages 94.1 94.3 94.2 94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0 6-2 8-4
Buffalo 99.0 100.8 100.0 99.9 7-1 10-3
Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0 6-2 6-6
Akron 85.8 86.7 85.5 86.0 2-6 4-8
Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9 2-6 3-9
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0 5-3 7-5
Northern Illinois 96.8 97.9 97.3 97.3 6-2 8-5
Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8 5-3 7-5
Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7 5-3 7-5
Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5 3-5 4-8
Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7 0-8 1-11
MAC Averages 90.3 91.7 90.8 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.3 111.1 111.6 111.3 7-1 10-3
Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4 7-1 10-2
Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3 4-4 6-6
Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9 3-5 5-7
Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7 2-6 3-9
New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6 1-7 3-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.0 111.6 112.2 111.9 7-1 11-2
Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8 5-3 7-5
San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7 4-4 7-5
U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5 2-6 4-8
Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6 5-3 8-5
San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5 1-7 1-11
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.7 120.8 123.3 122.3 7-2 10-3
Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3 7-2 10-2
Stanford 114.7 112.6 114.9 114.1 6-3 8-4
Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3 5-4 8-4
California 108.1 106.0 107.9 107.3 4-5 7-5
Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4 1-8 2-10
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.4 114.9 116.6 116.0 6-3 9-4
Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6 5-4 7-5
U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3 4-5 5-7
Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7 4-5 5-7
U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0 3-6 3-9
Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5 2-7 5-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.3 107.5 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.7 130.3 128.6 7-1 11-2
Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9 4-4 8-4
Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8 5-3 9-3
S. Carolina 113.1 111.9 113.0 112.7 4-4 7-5
Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2 5-3 9-3
Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9 3-5 6-6
Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5 2-6 5-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 141.0 139.3 142.6 141.0 8-0 13-0
Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1 4-4 8-4
L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6 5-3 9-3
Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8 3-5 7-5
Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4 5-3 8-4
Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3 1-7 5-7
Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6 0-8 2-10
SEC Averages 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.3 100.1 99.7 99.4 7-1 10-2
Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4 7-1 9-3
Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4 6-2 9-3
Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8 2-6 5-7
Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3 5-3 8-4
UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4 4-4 6-6
Louisiana 83.7 86.0 85.4 85.0 5-3 7-6
South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1 2-6 3-9
Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7 1-7 3-9
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.7
2 B12 109.6 108.1 108.9 108.9
3 ACC 109.3 108.1 108.7 108.7
4 BTEN 108.8 107.2 108.3 108.1
5 PAC12 107.6 106.3 107.5 107.1
6 AAC 94.7 95.3 94.7 94.9
7 IND 94.1 94.3 94.2 94.2
8 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
9 MAC 90.3 91.7 90.8 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 2, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 2-6, 2017

The PiRate Captain had to send up the white flag after his lasses staged a successful mutiny two weeks ago. Much to his chagrin and ego, the ladies proceeded to come up with back-to-back weeks of pillaging of the Vegas vessels.

Last week, they brought in enough booty to send the SS Fortune into the black for the season. They proceeded to return a profit on the investment of a whopping 147%, missing out on going a perfect 4 for 4 by one play in overtime in the Appy State-U Mass game.  For the season, the PiRate Account is now in the black with a very modest 1% ROI.

The Captain will note that in the previous two seasons, the period from the last of October to the first of December followed the same MO–the selection results went from red numbers to black numbers and clinched a profit for the overall seasons.
Now, the lasses are lobbying to change the name of the PiRate ship to Queen Anne’s Revenge. The Captain is worried that five swollen heads on the lovely ladies could lead to a return of some booty to the Nevada books, but the ladies are overly confident that they have zeroed in using their superior female intuition.

Once again, the ladies picked the teams they thought had the best chance of winning outright but at the same time went off as small favorites, total tossups, or even slight underdogs. The Captain merely served as their accountant, putting together the best possible parlays as far as favorable odds go, thanks to his knowing which of the 2 dozen reputable books had the best overall odds.

 
The PiRate lasses selected four money line parlays, each going off at better than +120 odds, which is the unwritten rule for this weekly feature. Actually, there are just three parlays this week, as the fourth selection is a single game where the ladies believe the underdog should be favored by at least a touchdown.

Enjoy the picks, but remember, neither the ladies nor the Captain ever wager real money on the outcomes of these games. The goal here is to have fun with math.

#1 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
North Texas Louisiana Tech
#2 @ +144  
Must Win Must Lose
Georgia St.
Georgia Southern
Kentucky Ole Miss
#3 @ +167  
Must Win Must Lose
Navy Temple
Northwestern Nebraska
#4 @ +204  
Must Win Must Lose
Missouri Florida
UAB Rice
Tulane Cincinnati

 

 

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

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