American Athletic Conference Preview

Just when a Group of 5 Conference is getting really good with maybe three teams strong enough to contend for a 2022-23 Playoff berth, said league is about to lose all three really good teams. Cincinnati broke through the insiders’ club last year, when the Bearcats ran the table in the regular season and became the first G5 school to receive a bid to the National Championship Playoffs. It was the second consecutive year that Cinti won every regular season game.

Alas, the Bearcats are headed to the Big 12 Conference. Going with them are the other two really good teams–Houston and Central Florida. A host of Conference USA teams will replace the really good teams, and this league will fall back in the Group of 5 pecking order.

This will be one interesting race this year. Houston and Cincinnati are not scheduled to play, but there is a decent chance they will face each other in game 13 in December.

American Athletic Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.2	110.3	112.8	111.4
Houston	105.0	104.7	106.5	105.4
UCF	103.8	104.5	104.6	104.3
SMU	102.2	101.3	102.3	101.9
East Carolina	99.5	99.1	100.4	99.7
Tulane	98.6	97.7	97.9	98.1
Memphis	97.0	97.5	96.9	97.1
Tulsa	95.8	94.8	95.7	95.4
USF	96.2	94.7	95.1	95.3
Navy	92.9	92.1	91.3	92.1
Temple	80.9	83.4	78.6	81.0
AAC	98.5	98.2	98.4	98.3

American Athletic Conference Official Media Poll

		Votes
#	Team	1st Place	Overall
1	Houston	7	243
2	Cincinnati	10	242
3	Central Florida	7	225
4	SMU	0	187
5	Memphis	0	162
6	East Carolina	0	157
7	Tulane	0	115
8	Tulsa	0	93
9	South Florida	0	71
10	Navy	0	61
11	Temple	0	28

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

AAC	Conf	Overall
Cincinnati	8-0	12-1
Houston	8-0	11-2
Central Florida	7-1	10-2
SMU	5-3	7-5
East Carolina	4-4	6-6
Memphis	3-5	6-6
Tulsa	3-5	6-6
Tulane	2-6	5-7
South Florida	2-6	3-9
Navy	2-6	3-9
Temple	0-8	2-10

Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game.

PiRate Ratings College Football–Selection Sunday

This Week’s College Football Game

December 11		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Navy	11.2	11.4	10.4

Final Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Added Bowl Game*	Ball St.	Nevada
Bahamas	Middle Tennessee	Toledo
Cure	SMU	Appalachian St.
Boca	Kent St.	Liberty
New Mexico	UTEP	San Diego St.
Independence	BYU	UTSA
Lending Tree	Central Michigan	Marshall
L. A.	Utah St.	Oregon St.
New Orleans	UAB	Coastal Carolina
Myrtle Beach	Old Dominion	Georgia St.
Famous Idaho Potato	Western Michigan	Boise St.
Frisco	North Texas	Air Force
Armed Forces	Tulsa	Army
Gasparilla	Louisville	Florida
Hawaii	Memphis	Hawaii
Camellia	Northern Illinois	Louisiana
Quick Lane	Eastern Michigan	Wyoming
Military	Virginia	East Carolina
Birmingham	Houston	South Carolina
First Responder	Western Kentucky	Missouri
Liberty	West Virginia	Mississippi St.
Holiday	North Carolina St.	UCLA
Guaranteed Rate	Maryland	Texas Tech
Fenway	Central Florida	Boston College
Pinstripe	Virginia Tech	Penn St.
Cheez-It	Clemson	Iowa St.
Alamo	Oklahoma	Oregon
Duke’s Mayo	Wake Forest	Tennessee
Music City	Purdue	Auburn
Las Vegas	Wisconsin	Washington St.
Tax Slayer Gator	Miami (Fla.)	Arkansas
Tony The Tiger Sun	North Carolina	Arizona St.
Arizona	Miami (O)	Fresno St.
Citrus	Iowa	Kentucky
Outback	Minnesota	Texas A&M
Texas	Kansas St.	LSU
Peach	Pitt/Wake	Notre Dame
Fiesta	Michigan St.	Oklahoma St.
Rose	Ohio St.	Utah
Sugar	Baylor	Ole Miss
Cotton	Michigan	Georgia
Orange	Alabama	Cincinnati
Championship	Alabama	Georgia

• An extra bowl game was added by the NCAA to ensure all 6-win teams could earn bowl invitations. This extra bowl will be played in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and will include two group of 5 teams.
• Teams in bold have officially accepted the bowl bid.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	133.8
2	Alabama	132.9
3	Ohio St.	130.4
4	Michigan	127.5
5	Notre Dame	121.9
6	Oklahoma St.	121.5
7	Utah	121.2
8	Oklahoma	120.4
9	Iowa St.	120.1
10	Cincinnati	119.6
11	Texas A&M	118.6
12	Clemson	117.2
13	Wisconsin	116.5
14	Ole Miss	116.2
15	Baylor	116.1
16	U C L A	115.0
17	Penn St.	114.8
18	Arkansas	114.7
19	Auburn	114.1
20	Pittsburgh	113.9
21	Kentucky	113.1
22	NC State	112.7
23	Mississippi St.	112.0
24	Tennessee	111.9
25	L S U	111.5
26	Purdue	111.4
27	Minnesota	111.1
28	Arizona St.	110.3
29	Oregon St.	110.3
30	North Carolina	110.2
31	Miami (Fla.)	110.1
32	BYU	109.8
33	Louisiana	109.7
34	Florida	109.6
35	West Virginia	109.4
36	Wake Forest	109.3
37	Kansas St.	109.3
38	Nebraska	109.3
39	Iowa	109.3
40	Appalachian St.	109.2
41	Washington St.	109.2
42	Oregon	109.0
43	Michigan St.	108.2
44	Texas	107.5
45	Boise St.	106.4
46	Houston	106.0
47	Nevada	105.4
48	Louisville	105.3
49	Florida St.	105.3
50	Coastal Carolina	104.7
51	California	104.6
52	Texas Tech	104.2
53	Fresno St.	104.1
54	Air Force	103.9
55	U S C	103.6
56	Virginia	103.4
57	Washington	103.1
58	Virginia Tech	102.6
59	Army	102.5
60	Central Michigan	102.1
61	T C U	101.8
62	SMU	101.8
63	Illinois	101.6
64	Western Kentucky	101.4
65	South Carolina	100.6
66	Missouri	100.3
67	East Carolina	100.0
68	Maryland	99.9
69	Utah St.	99.5
70	Toledo	99.4
71	Boston College	99.3
72	UCF	98.8
73	Tulsa	98.7
74	Georgia St.	98.7
75	Liberty	98.6
76	Colorado	98.6
77	Miami (Ohio)	98.4
78	San Diego St.	98.4
79	U A B	98.2
80	Syracuse	97.9
81	U T S A	97.7
82	Tulane	95.2
83	Georgia Tech	95.1
84	Memphis	94.6
85	Western Michigan	94.5
86	Stanford	94.3
87	Marshall	94.3
88	Rutgers	93.8
89	Ball St.	93.8
90	Indiana	93.3
91	Hawaii	92.9
92	Wyoming	92.4
93	Arizona	92.3
94	Eastern Michigan	92.1
95	Northwestern	91.9
96	Northern Illinois	91.7
97	Navy	91.5
98	Kent St.	90.4
99	North Texas	90.3
100	Middle Tennessee	90.2
101	South Alabama	89.8
102	Colorado St.	88.9
103	San Jose St.	88.6
104	Buffalo	88.3
105	Troy	88.0
106	USF	87.4
107	Georgia Southern	87.0
108	Florida Atlantic	86.3
109	Ohio	86.1
110	Kansas	85.7
111	Old Dominion	85.7
112	U N L V	85.2
113	U T E P	84.5
114	Vanderbilt	84.0
115	UL-Monroe	83.2
116	Texas St.	83.0
117	Arkansas St.	82.8
118	Duke	80.2
119	Rice	80.0
120	Louisiana Tech	79.7
121	New Mexico	78.0
122	Southern Miss.	77.6
123	Bowling Green	77.1
124	Charlotte	77.0
125	Akron	72.5
126	Temple	72.4
127	New Mexico St.	71.8
128	Connecticut	68.6
129	Florida Int’l.	65.9
130	UMass	64.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.3	118.9	120.7	119.6
Houston	105.9	105.4	106.6	106.0
SMU	101.7	101.5	102.1	101.8
East Carolina	99.8	99.5	100.8	100.0
UCF	99.0	97.7	99.8	98.8
Tulsa	98.5	98.5	99.1	98.7
Tulane	95.2	94.2	96.1	95.2
Memphis	94.1	94.3	95.3	94.6
Navy	91.3	91.1	92.1	91.5
USF	87.4	86.9	88.0	87.4
Temple	72.3	73.0	71.8	72.4
AAC Averages	96.8	96.5	97.5	96.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	116.7	116.8	118.0	117.2
NC State	112.5	112.3	113.2	112.7
Wake Forest	109.3	109.1	109.6	109.3
Louisville	104.9	105.0	105.9	105.3
Florida St.	104.9	105.2	105.7	105.3
Boston College	99.4	99.2	99.3	99.3
Syracuse	98.0	98.0	97.8	97.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	113.4	114.3	114.2	113.9
North Carolina	109.7	109.7	111.1	110.2
Miami (Fla.)	110.4	109.8	110.2	110.1
Virginia	103.3	103.8	103.0	103.4
Virginia Tech	103.0	102.5	102.4	102.6
Georgia Tech	95.1	95.1	95.0	95.1
Duke	80.6	80.7	79.3	80.2
ACC Averages	104.4	104.4	104.6	104.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma St.	121.8	121.5	121.3	121.5
Oklahoma	121.2	119.6	120.3	120.4
Iowa St.	120.8	119.4	120.1	120.1
Baylor	116.5	115.9	115.8	116.1
West Virginia	110.7	109.1	108.4	109.4
Kansas St.	110.1	109.3	108.5	109.3
Texas	108.5	106.8	107.2	107.5
Texas Tech	104.5	104.5	103.7	104.2
T C U	102.9	101.4	101.2	101.8
Kansas	87.4	85.7	83.9	85.7
Big 12 Averages	110.4	109.3	109.0	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	130.0	130.0	131.3	130.4
Michigan	126.6	127.5	128.4	127.5
Penn St.	114.0	114.6	115.8	114.8
Michigan St.	108.0	108.1	108.6	108.2
Maryland	100.6	99.7	99.4	99.9
Rutgers	93.2	94.7	93.5	93.8
Indiana	93.3	93.0	93.4	93.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	116.1	115.9	117.3	116.5
Purdue	110.8	110.8	112.6	111.4
Minnesota	110.3	111.0	112.2	111.1
Nebraska	109.0	109.1	109.8	109.3
Iowa	109.1	108.9	109.9	109.3
Illinois	101.1	101.6	102.2	101.6
Northwestern	92.0	92.0	91.8	91.9
Big Ten Averages	108.2	108.4	109.0	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	100.3	101.7	102.2	101.4
Marshall	94.0	94.3	94.7	94.3
Middle Tennessee	89.7	90.2	90.7	90.2
Florida Atlantic	86.0	86.7	86.2	86.3
Old Dominion	84.8	85.9	86.3	85.7
Charlotte	76.6	77.2	77.2	77.0
Florida Int’l.	65.9	65.9	65.8	65.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	98.0	98.4	98.3	98.2
U T S A	97.2	98.0	98.0	97.7
North Texas	89.9	90.5	90.6	90.3
U T E P	84.2	85.2	84.0	84.5
Rice	80.1	80.1	79.8	80.0
Louisiana Tech	80.0	80.2	78.8	79.7
Southern Miss.	77.4	78.0	77.4	77.6
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.4	86.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	121.1	121.9	122.7	121.9
BYU	109.8	109.5	110.0	109.8
Army	102.5	102.5	102.5	102.5
Liberty	98.5	98.6	98.6	98.6
New Mexico St.	72.1	72.7	70.7	71.8
Connecticut	69.0	69.5	67.2	68.6
UMass	65.2	64.6	62.4	64.1
Indep. Averages	91.2	91.3	90.6	91.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.6	98.3	97.3	98.4
Kent St.	90.4	91.1	89.7	90.4
Buffalo	89.2	88.1	87.5	88.3
Ohio	86.0	86.5	85.9	86.1
Bowling Green	77.6	77.8	75.8	77.1
Akron	73.6	72.6	71.4	72.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	102.9	101.8	101.5	102.1
Toledo	99.8	99.4	98.9	99.4
Western Michigan	94.8	94.8	93.7	94.5
Ball St.	94.8	94.2	92.5	93.8
Eastern Michigan	93.4	92.1	90.8	92.1
Northern Illinois	92.5	91.7	90.9	91.7
MAC Averages	91.2	90.7	89.7	90.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	106.3	106.7	106.4
Air Force	103.5	103.8	104.5	103.9
Utah St.	99.1	99.9	99.6	99.5
Wyoming	92.0	92.4	92.8	92.4
Colorado St.	89.1	88.9	88.8	88.9
New Mexico	78.5	78.3	77.1	78.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Nevada	105.0	106.0	105.3	105.4
Fresno St.	103.2	104.3	104.9	104.1
San Diego St.	98.6	98.4	98.1	98.4
Hawaii	93.0	92.9	92.8	92.9
San Jose St.	88.9	89.0	87.8	88.6
U N L V	85.3	85.0	85.4	85.2
MWC Averages	95.2	95.4	95.3	95.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon St.	109.9	110.5	110.6	110.3
Washington St.	108.6	109.6	109.4	109.2
Oregon	108.2	109.1	109.7	109.0
California	103.0	105.6	105.3	104.6
Washington	102.7	103.4	103.1	103.1
Stanford	94.2	94.8	94.0	94.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	120.9	121.3	121.3	121.2
U C L A	114.5	115.1	115.4	115.0
Arizona St.	109.8	110.5	110.8	110.3
U S C	103.7	103.4	103.6	103.6
Colorado	98.6	98.7	98.4	98.6
Arizona	92.2	92.3	92.3	92.3
Pac-12 Averages	105.5	106.2	106.2	106.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.4	133.6	134.4	133.8
Kentucky	112.6	113.6	113.1	113.1
Tennessee	111.8	111.7	112.0	111.9
Florida	109.2	110.1	109.4	109.6
South Carolina	101.1	100.7	100.2	100.6
Missouri	100.4	100.7	99.9	100.3
Vanderbilt	84.1	84.0	83.9	84.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	133.0	132.4	133.3	132.9
Texas A&M	118.4	118.8	118.5	118.6
Ole Miss	116.0	116.1	116.3	116.2
Arkansas	114.7	114.7	114.7	114.7
Auburn	114.3	113.7	114.4	114.1
Mississippi St.	111.8	112.1	112.0	112.0
L S U	111.1	111.8	111.7	111.5
SEC Averages	112.3	112.4	112.4	112.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	108.9	108.7	110.1	109.2
Coastal Carolina	105.5	103.8	104.6	104.7
Georgia St.	98.8	98.3	98.9	98.7
Troy	88.1	87.9	88.1	88.0
Georgia Southern	86.9	87.1	87.0	87.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
South Alabama	90.1	89.8	89.4	89.8
UL-Monroe	83.5	83.4	82.7	83.2
Texas St.	83.8	82.4	82.8	83.0
Arkansas St.	83.1	83.0	82.3	82.8
Sun Averages	93.9	93.4	93.6	93.6

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.4
2	Big 12	109.6
3	Big Ten	108.5
4	Pac-12	106.0
5	Atlantic Coast	104.5
6	American Athletic	96.9
7	Mountain West	95.3
8	Sun Belt	93.6
9	Independents	91.0
10	Mid-American	90.5
11	Conference USA	86.3

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
George Washington	Rhode Island	-8.7
St. Bonaventure	Davidson	4.1
Houston	Cincinnati	13.0
Temple	South Florida	1.1
Xavier	Butler	9.1
Ohio St.	Michigan	0.7
Rutgers	Maryland	0.1
Iowa	Penn St.	11.0
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-3.8
Drake	Evansville	15.7
Southern Illinois	Valparaiso	0.3
San Jose St.	UNLV	-9.2
Wagner	St. Francis (Pa)	6.6
Colgate	Boston U	14.1
American	Navy	-3.0

Note: Big Announcement Coming Later Today!

PiRate Picks for December 11-14, 2020

Picking Games That Will Actually Be Played Harder Than Picking Winners

We moved this feature from Thursday to Friday beginning last week, in hopes that we would stop issuing selections only to have them be cancelled later in the day when games in our parlays and teasers were virus victims. So, what happened last week? Literally five minutes after we posted our selections, our number one selection as far as our confidence in thinking it would be a winner, was cancelled.

We cannot possibly send this out an hour before the Noon Eastern kickoffs, so Friday morning is about as late as we can release this weekly feature. Maybe, we should try to predict who will cancel in the final 24 hours before kickoff?

We were quite hesitant to use Tennessee and Vanderbilt in our selections this week, because the Commodores’ roster looks like a retail store about five weeks after they have begun to liquidate with a “going out of business” sale. They have 44 players remaining on the team, but they have just one defensive end left on the roster, and two real linebackers. They have been forced to use small defensive backs at linebacker and offensive linemen in the defensive line. One of the healthy defensive backs, a true freshman and one of the very few 4-star recruits suffered the tragic loss of his mother and has been left with three siblings that he will now become their legal guardian. He’s all of 18 years old.

If you want to contribute something to this family facing a tragic loss of having both father and mother pass away, the four teenage kids could use a little Holiday Season support. For what it’s worth, the Vanderbilt freshman, DeRickey Wright, is not only on athletic scholarship at Vanderbilt, he is on academic scholarship. His three sisters are aged 16, 14, and 10. A Go Fund Me account has been set up to help the family. Rather than ask you not to use our selections here as real betting advice, we ask you to consider donating a little to help this family in their worst time of grief.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/j3m97-wright-family

This Week’s Selections

1. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Arizona St.	Arizona	-0.5
Georgia	Missouri	-3
Nebraska	Minnesota	-0.5
2. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Ball St.	Western Mich.	+8
Toledo	Central Mich.	-1
Troy	Coastal Carolina	+23.5
3. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	+13
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	-5.5
Boise St.	Wyoming	-1
4. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Florida	LSU	-13
Auburn	Mississippi St.	+3.5
USC	UCLA	+7.5
5. Money Line Parlay @+131.55
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Army	Navy
Virginia Tech	Virginia	+131.55
6. Money Line Parlay @ +160
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Utah	Colorado
Northwestern	Illinois	+160
7. NFL 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Chicago	Houston	+11.5
N.Y. Giants	Arizona	+12.5
Detroit	Green Bay	+17.5

College PiRate Ratings DELAYED

The Reinstatement of the Pac-12, Mountain West, and Mid-American Conferences, as well as Independent UMass, has caused a somewhat lengthy delay in our college football ratings update for this coming week.

Because the PiRate Ratings use an algorithm with a cumulative par rating of 100.0 for the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings, we cannot simply place the original August ratings for the teams that decided in the last week to play football. Doing so would throw the cumulative par well below 100.0.

We cannot simply add the necessary amount needed per team to raise the par values to 100.0 for multiple reasons. First, the amount needed to be added to each of the three ratings would be totally different. Why would a team all of a sudden become .2 points better in the Mean, but .4 points better in the Bias? Actually, some teams might gain points in one rating and lose points in another. That would not be just or accurate.

Second, why would you reward a team with points that is obviously struggling at the present time, while at the same time punish a team that hasn’t played yet by keeping their rating where it was when everybody was 0-0?

When the Big Ten returned, we had to raise some ratings and lower others to keep the overall par at 100.0 for our three different algorithms, and to be quite frank, we had to use some one-time extracurricular data to come to a conclusion.

The need to reincorporate the teams is vital thanks to the Navy-Air Force game this weekend. The Mountain West is looking to return at the end of October, but the Air Force Academy is scheduled to play Navy this Saturday as part of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy series. We cannot issue power ratings for Air Force until we have done the work to reincorporate all the teams that will return to play in 2020.

As of this writing, the Pac-12, Mountain West, and Mid-American Conferences are on board with a late October or early November re-start. UMass plans to attempt to find some teams to play and hopefully get in six games. Old Dominion, New Mexico State, and Connecticut still plan to take off this season, but New Mexico State hopes to play a half-dozen games in the Spring against FCS, Division II, and possibly Connecticut with a remote possibility that they could play UMass.

As an aside to this, keep an eye on New Mexico State basketball coach Chris Jans. The Aggies are not completely sure their basketball team will be able to play in 2020-2021. If the Aggies cancel their basketball season, expect multiple Power Conference schools to move Jans up high on their lists of potential head coaches if they have a vacancy. If you follow our college basketball coverage, you know that we rate coaches by their ability to improve their teams’ offensive efficiency, while weakening their opponents’ offensive efficiencies. In the Winter of 2020, our analysis rated Jans as number one overall among Mid-Major and Low-Major coaches in his ability to improve the talent on his roster above the norm. In 2019, we named Eric Musselman, then of Nevada, as number one and predicted that a Power Conference school would hire him and not regret it. Arkansas was that fortunate school to hire Muss, and Muss has the Razorbacks moving forward toward a top 20 program quickly. It is our opinion that Jans has the competency to do for a Power Conference school what Musselman has done for Arkansas. If NMSU does not play basketball this season, we believe Jans will take another job for 2021-2022.

PiRate Ratings College Football–Sep 3-7

This Week’s Games

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Southern Miss.	South Alabama	7.3	6.5	9.3
Army	Middle Tenn.	5.2	6.9	4.5
Texas St.	SMU	-22.6	-21.1	-24.1
Memphis	Arkansas St.	18.0	13.9	17.7
Navy	BYU	4.9	4.5	3.3

FBS vs. FCS (PiRate Only)

FBS	FCS	PiRate
UAB	Cent. Arkansas	8.6
Marshall	E. Kentucky	21.5
North Texas	Hou. Baptist	26.9
UTEP	S F Austin	7.8

Note: Game Spreads Have Been Adjusted From Ratings Due To Covid-19 Opt-outs.

This Week’s Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.
1	Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3
2	L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
3	Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
4	Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
5	Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
6	Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
7	Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2
8	Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0
9	Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
10	Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7
11	Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
12	N. Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8
13	Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
14	Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6
15	Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1
16	Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
17	UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
18	Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
19	Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
20	Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
21	S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
22	Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
23	Ole Miss	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
24	Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0
25	Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0
26	Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
27	T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
28	Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
29	Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6
30	Miss. St.	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
31	Appal. St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2
32	Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0
33	Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2
34	SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7
35	BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3
36	Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2
37	W. Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7
38	Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2
39	Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
40	Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
41	Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4
42	Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7
43	Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0
44	W. Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7
45	Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
46	Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
47	Georgia Sou.	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0
48	Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
49	Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4
50	Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3
51	Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6
52	Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
53	USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2
54	NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
55	U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4
56	Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
57	Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6
58	E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
59	Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3
60	Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8
61	Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5
62	Coastal Car.	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6
63	Middle Tenn.	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8
64	Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
65	Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
66	La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
67	Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
68	Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4
69	Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
70	UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3
71	S. Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6
72	Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
73	North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
74	Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6
75	U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3
76	U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8	0-0	0-0
Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1	0-0	0-0
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1	0-0	0-0
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7	0-0	0-0
Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0	0-0	0-0
SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7	0-0	0-0
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2	0-0	0-0
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1	0-0	0-0
Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6	0-0	0-0
USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2	0-0	0-0
E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9	0-0	0-0
AAC Averages	101.5	100.7	100.4	100.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3	0-0	0-0
Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2	0-0	0-0
N. Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8	0-0	0-0
Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1	0-0	0-0
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9	0-0	0-0
Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0	0-0	0-0
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4	0-0	0-0
Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6	0-0	0-0
Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2	0-0	0-0
Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2	0-0	0-0
Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5	0-0	0-0
Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7	0-0	0-0
Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0	0-0	0-0
Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-0
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6	0-0	0-0
ACC Averages	104.9	105.4	105.3	105.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0	0-0	0-0
Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7	0-0	0-0
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3	0-0	0-0
Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6	0-0	0-0
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1	0-0	0-0
Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0	0-0	0-0
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3	0-0	0-0
W. Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7	0-0	0-0
Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4	0-0	0-0
Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5	0-0	0-0
Big 12 Averages	106.7	106.0	106.7	106.5
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
W. Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7	0-0	0-0
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5	0-0	0-0
Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3	0-0	0-0
U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4	0-0	0-0
Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3	0-0	0-0
Middle Tenn.	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8	0-0	0-0
La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4	0-0	0-0
Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4	0-0	0-0
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3	0-0	0-0
Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9	0-0	0-0
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7	0-0	0-0
U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3	0-0	0-0
U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9	0-0	0-0
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.0	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3	x	0-0
Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8	x	0-0
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4	x	0-0
Ind. Averages	92.7	94.0	92.7	93.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8	0-0	0-0
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9	0-0	0-0
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8	0-0	0-0
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2	0-0	0-0
S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3	0-0	0-0
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5	0-0	0-0
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8	0-0	0-0
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3	0-0	0-0
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5	0-0	0-0
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8	0-0	0-0
Miss. St.	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1	0-0	0-0
Ole Miss	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4	0-0	0-0
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3	0-0	0-0
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Appal. St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2	0-0	0-0
Georgia Sou.	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0	0-0	0-0
Coastal Car.	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6	0-0	0-0
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8	0-0	0-0
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2	0-0	0-0
Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6	0-0	0-0
UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3	0-0	0-0
S. Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6	0-0	0-0
Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6	0-0	0-0
SBC Averages	90.1	90.7	89.9	90.2

This Week’s Free College Pick–And You Get What You Pay For!

We are toning down the selections against the spread this year due to the lack of games each week and the uncertainty of available personnel.  We will issue a minimum of selections and highly urge you to not use this non-advice.  All wagers will be done at the pretend amount of $100 units.

 

1. Money Line Parlay (+103)

        Southern Miss over South Alabama

        Navy over BYU

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 6-10, 2018

The Land Sharps are taking a week off this week, since they play only college games, and there is just one game.  They will return for the bowls and playoffs.

In the meantime, the PiRate Ratings will go it alone and select our teaser choices for you to look at but not touch.  In other words, please do not wager real currency on what we issue here, as this is for entertainment purposes only.  While, our NFL picks have been on fire now for about a month, this does not mean they won’t stink it up so bad that they need to be sprayed with poopouri.

COLLEGE
13-Point Teaser	4-Game Parlays	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Army	Navy	20	Navy
Navy	Army	6	Army
Army	Navy	27	OVER
Army	Navy	53	UNDER

 

N F L

10-Point Teasers	3-Game Parlays	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Jacksonville	15.5	Jacksonville
Baltimore	Kansas City	3.5	Kansas City
Indianapolis	Houston	5	Houston
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Green Bay	Atlanta	15	Atlanta
New England	Miami	17.5	Miami
Cleveland	Carolina	9	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	Pittsburgh	Pk	Pittsburgh
Chicago	L.A. Rams	7	L.A. Rams
Minnesota	Seattle	7	Seattle
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Kansas City	Baltimore	41	OVER
Houston	Indianapolis	59.5	UNDER
N.Y. Giants	Washington	31	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	45.5	OVER
Carolina	Cleveland	37	OVER
Arizona	Detroit	30.5	OVER
13-Point Teaser	4 Game parlay	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Washington	N.Y. Giants	9.5	N.Y. Giants
San Francisco	Denver	9.5	Denver
L.A. Chargers	Cincinnati	1	L.A. Chargers
Detroit	Arizona	16	Arizona

 

 

 

Final Bowl Projections +Army-Navy

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Tulane	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St. *	California
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	UAB	Appalachian St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Middle Tennessee
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[San Diego St.]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	Southern Miss.
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo *	Florida Int’l. *
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Virginia Tech]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech *	Hawaii *
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[BYU]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Georgia Tech	[Western Michigan]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Auburn
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Pittsburgh	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington St.
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Wake Forest
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Stanford
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Utah
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Texas A&M
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	LSU	Michigan
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington *
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Oklahoma
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
* Team has already accepted this bid

 

Saturday	December 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Navy	14.6	13.3	14.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0
2	Clemson	138.9	136.8	139.7	138.5
3	Georgia	128.9	126.7	130.3	128.6
4	Ohio St.	127.1	125.4	127.4	126.6
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.7	120.8	123.3	122.3
9	Oklahoma	121.8	120.6	121.8	121.4
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.4	114.9	116.6	116.0
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Central Florida	114.2	114.7	114.9	114.6
21	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
22	Stanford	114.7	112.6	114.9	114.1
23	Texas	114.0	112.4	113.2	113.2
24	N. Carolina St.	113.2	112.4	112.6	112.7
25	S. Carolina	113.1	111.9	113.0	112.7
26	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	Fresno St.	112.0	111.6	112.2	111.9
30	Iowa State	112.5	110.8	111.9	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.3	111.1	111.6	111.3
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.4	108.8	109.9	109.7
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
40	Pittsburgh	109.4	108.4	108.8	108.9
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.1	106.0	107.9	107.3
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.5	105.7	105.3	105.2
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Virginia Tech	104.6	103.9	104.2	104.2
54	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
55	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
68	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
69	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
70	Buffalo	99.0	100.8	100.0	99.9
71	Appalachian St.	98.3	100.1	99.7	99.4
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Northern Illinois	96.8	97.9	97.3	97.3
76	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
77	U A B	96.2	98.6	97.1	97.3
78	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
79	Middle Tennessee	95.9	97.8	96.9	96.9
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
85	Marshall	93.9	96.2	94.6	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.8	86.7	85.5	86.0
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.7	86.0	85.4	85.0
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
111	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
112	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
113	East Carolina	81.9	81.9	81.3	81.7
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	Liberty	80.9	80.4	80.9	80.7
118	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
119	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.2	114.7	114.9	114.6	8-0	12-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	81.9	81.9	81.3	81.7	1-7	3-9
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.5	105.7	105.3	105.2	5-3	8-5
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.7	95.3	94.7	94.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.9	136.8	139.7	138.5	8-0	13-0
N. Carolina St.	113.2	112.4	112.6	112.7	5-3	9-3
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.4	108.4	108.8	108.9	6-2	7-6
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.6	103.9	104.2	104.2	4-4	6-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.3	108.1	108.7	108.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.8	120.6	121.8	121.4	8-1	12-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.0	112.4	113.2	113.2	7-2	9-4
Iowa State	112.5	110.8	111.9	111.7	6-3	8-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.1	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	127.1	125.4	127.4	126.6	8-1	12-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.4	108.8	109.9	109.7	8-1	8-5
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	95.9	97.8	96.9	96.9	7-1	8-5
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Marshall	93.9	96.2	94.6	94.9	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	96.2	98.6	97.1	97.3	7-1	10-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.9	80.4	80.9	80.7	x	6-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.1	94.3	94.2	94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.0	100.8	100.0	99.9	7-1	10-3
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.8	86.7	85.5	86.0	2-6	4-8
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.8	97.9	97.3	97.3	6-2	8-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.8	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.3	111.1	111.6	111.3	7-1	10-3
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.0	111.6	112.2	111.9	7-1	11-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.7	120.8	123.3	122.3	7-2	10-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.7	112.6	114.9	114.1	6-3	8-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.1	106.0	107.9	107.3	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.4	114.9	116.6	116.0	6-3	9-4
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.5	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.7	130.3	128.6	7-1	11-2
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	113.1	111.9	113.0	112.7	4-4	7-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0	8-0	13-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.3	100.1	99.7	99.4	7-1	10-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.7	86.0	85.4	85.0	5-3	7-6
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.7
2	B12	109.6	108.1	108.9	108.9
3	ACC	109.3	108.1	108.7	108.7
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.5	107.1
6	AAC	94.7	95.3	94.7	94.9
7	IND	94.1	94.3	94.2	94.2
8	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.8	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 2-6, 2017

The PiRate Captain had to send up the white flag after his lasses staged a successful mutiny two weeks ago. Much to his chagrin and ego, the ladies proceeded to come up with back-to-back weeks of pillaging of the Vegas vessels.

Last week, they brought in enough booty to send the SS Fortune into the black for the season. They proceeded to return a profit on the investment of a whopping 147%, missing out on going a perfect 4 for 4 by one play in overtime in the Appy State-U Mass game.  For the season, the PiRate Account is now in the black with a very modest 1% ROI.

The Captain will note that in the previous two seasons, the period from the last of October to the first of December followed the same MO–the selection results went from red numbers to black numbers and clinched a profit for the overall seasons.
Now, the lasses are lobbying to change the name of the PiRate ship to Queen Anne’s Revenge. The Captain is worried that five swollen heads on the lovely ladies could lead to a return of some booty to the Nevada books, but the ladies are overly confident that they have zeroed in using their superior female intuition.

Once again, the ladies picked the teams they thought had the best chance of winning outright but at the same time went off as small favorites, total tossups, or even slight underdogs. The Captain merely served as their accountant, putting together the best possible parlays as far as favorable odds go, thanks to his knowing which of the 2 dozen reputable books had the best overall odds.

 
The PiRate lasses selected four money line parlays, each going off at better than +120 odds, which is the unwritten rule for this weekly feature. Actually, there are just three parlays this week, as the fourth selection is a single game where the ladies believe the underdog should be favored by at least a touchdown.

Enjoy the picks, but remember, neither the ladies nor the Captain ever wager real money on the outcomes of these games. The goal here is to have fun with math.

#1 @ +155
Must Win	Must Lose
North Texas	Louisiana Tech

#2 @ +144
Must Win	Must Lose
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern
Kentucky	Ole Miss

#3 @ +167
Must Win	Must Lose
Navy	Temple
Northwestern	Nebraska

#4 @ +204
Must Win	Must Lose
Missouri	Florida
UAB	Rice
Tulane	Cincinnati

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida	LSU
TCU	West Virginia
Notre Dame	North Carolina

 

#2@ +138
Must Win	Must Lose
Syracuse	Pittsburgh
Michigan	Michigan St.
Marshall	Charlotte

 

#3@ +176
Must Win	Must Lose
Miami	Florida St.
UTSA	Southern Miss
Navy	Air Force

 

#4@ +130
Must Win	Must Lose
Akron	Ball St.
Idaho	UL-Lafayette
Ohio U	Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.