PiRate Picks For September 9-13, 2021

Last week’s opening picks missed, as Virginia Tech made Sam Howell look like Thurston Howell. Duke then failed to show up against Charlotte, and poof, our two picks were destroyed. Such is life when you wager on parlays that return the odds we look for when we place our imaginary wagers.

We have two more picks returning some fat odds this week, and maybe we’ll get lucky and hit on one. We will also tell you a week 1 tip for the NFL. Although we are here just for Money Line Parlays this year, it doesn’t mean we cannot give out a little interesting information.

Here are our two Money Line Parlays for Week two of the college season. We will eventually pick some NFL games, but Week one is not the time and place for that.

Parlay 1

Odds:	+224
Must Win	Opponent
Virginia	Illinois
Rutgers	Syracuse
Michigan	Washington

Parlay 2

Odds:	+180.56
Must Win	Opponent
Mississippi St.	North Carolina St.
TCU	California

Here’s our tip for Week 1 of the NFL season. Underdogs of 1 to 3 points tend to win outright 50% of the time, but they also lose by less than 3 points another 8-10% of the time. That’s 58-60% success for wagering on 3-point Underdogs.

There are seven games as of this writing with a 3-point spread. The Dogs are:

Houston against Jacksonville

Arizona against Tennessee

Philadelphia against Atlanta

Indianapolis against Seattle

Cincinnati against Minnesota

Miami against New England

N.Y. Giants against Denver

Add On Game College Football — Sunday, November 15, 2020

Pirate Rating Spread For UCLA-California game added Friday, November 13 to be played Sunday, November 15.

Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
UCLA	California	-4.0	-5.6	-6.3

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 27, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Austin Peay	Morehead St.	12.3
Belmont	Tennessee Tech	21.1
Cal Poly	UC Irvine	-11.5
Cal St. Bakersfield	UT Rio Grande Valley	2.3
California	Colorado	-9.9
Canisius	Iona	1.7
Charleston	Delaware	4.7
Charleston Southern	Gardner-Webb	-2.2
Fairleigh Dickinson	Bryant	0.4
Florida Atlantic	UTSA	2.7
Florida Gulf Coast	Jacksonville	-0.2
Florida Intl.	North Texas	-2.7
Gonzaga	San Diego	26.3
Grand Canyon	New Mexico St.	-5.9
Green Bay	Youngstown St.	3.5
Hampton	Radford	-7.2
Hawaii	Cal St. Fullerton	7.9
High Point	UNC Asheville	-2.0
Hofstra	Towson	6.9
Idaho St.	Portland St.	-3.2
Illinois Chicago	Detroit	7.1
IUPUI	Oakland	-4.4
Kennesaw St.	Liberty	-23.0
Little Rock	UL Monroe	10.3
Long Island	Wagner	9.1
Loyola Marymount	Pacific	-1.4
Merrimack	Central Connecticut	16.0
Miami (O)	Central Michigan	-0.6
Michigan	Wisconsin	6.6
Milwaukee	Cleveland St.	6.2
Murray St.	Eastern Kentucky	12.5
Nebraska	Ohio St.	-9.8
Niagara	Saint Peter’s	-4.1
North Alabama	NJIT	4.1
North Dakota St.	South Dakota St.	2.2
Northeastern	James Madison	12.5
Northern Arizona	Montana	-0.7
Northern Colorado	Idaho	17.4
Northwestern	Illinois	-6.8
Oral Roberts	Western Illinois	15.1
Oregon	Oregon St.	10.4
Presbyterian	Longwood	0.1
Purdue	Indiana	4.7
Sacramento St.	Montana St.	4.3
Sacred Heart	St. Francis (NY)	9.9
San Francisco	Portland	15.8
Santa Clara	Saint Mary’s	-6.3
South Carolina Upstate	Winthrop	-9.7
Southeast Missouri	Eastern Illinois	-5.0
Southern Utah	Eastern Washington	2.2
St. Francis (PA)	Mount St. Mary’s	9.2
Stetson	North Florida	-5.6
Tennessee St.	Jacksonville St.	2.8
UAB	Marshall	0.7
UC Riverside	UC Santa Barbara	-0.5
UCLA	Arizona St.	0.6
UNC Wilmington	Drexel	-0.5
USC	Arizona	-3.9
UT Martin	SIU-Edwardsville	4.5
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	0.1
Wichita St.	Temple	9.7

 

Key TV Games On Thursday

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Michigan	Wisconsin
7:00 PM	FS1	Purdue	Indiana
8:00 PM	ESPN+	Murray St.	Eastern Kentucky
9:00 PM	ESPN+	North Dakota St.	South Dakota St.
10:00 PM	ESPN	USC	Arizona
11:00 PM	Pac12	UCLA	Arizona St.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 26, 2020

Sunday’s Games

Home	Visitor	Spread
California	Stanford	-8.5
Connecticut	Tulsa	4.3
Creighton	Xavier	6.2
Drake	Missouri St.	3.4
Fairfield	Canisius	1.5
Houston	South Florida	13.4
Indiana	Maryland	-0.6
Iona	Monmouth	0.6
Manhattan	Rider	-0.3
Minnesota	Michigan St.	-2.4
Northern Iowa	Loyola (Chi)	5.7
Northwestern	Ohio St.	-7.7
Oregon	UCLA	13.6
Saint Louis	Fordham	13.9
Saint Peter’s	Niagara	6.7
Siena	Quinnipiac	4.0
UNLV	San Diego St.	-9.1
Valparaiso	Evansville	10.0
Wake Forest	Virginia	-1.3

 

Saturday Was Upset City

There were more than two dozen upsets Saturday in Division 1 college basketball.  While your favorite team in a power conference may have won, and you’re thinking that you don’t remember many upsets, let us tell you that many of them occurred in the Mid-Major conferences.  Because most of the Mid-Major conferences will be one-bid leagues, and the conference tournament champion will be the representative in the Big Dance, our bracketology must undergo massive restructuring in the #13 through 16 seeds.

Thus, we will put out an update Bracketology later today, or basically as soon as we can clean up the mess and “un-muddle the water.”

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 19, 2020

Division 1 Basketball Games on Sunday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Canisius	Rider	-0.8
Chicago State	Cal St. Bakersfield	-15.8
Cincinnati	East Carolina	16.9
Fordham	Davidson	-7.4
Illinois State	Loyola (Chi.)	-4.9
Maine	Binghamton	1.8
Marist	Iona	-4.5
Niagara	Siena	-2.2
North Dakota State	North Dakota	7.4
Rutgers	Minnesota	3.9
South Dakota	South Dakota State	-1.3
Southern Illinois	Drake	0.1
UCLA	California	6.5
UMKC	Grand Canyon	3.3
Wake Forest	Boston College	6.7

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 16, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Memphis	Cincinnati	4.7
Arizona	Utah	14.3
Arizona St.	Colorado	-1.7
BYU	San Diego	18.1
USC	California	11.0
Gonzaga	Santa Clara	18.4
Washington	Oregon St.	4.1

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 9, 2020

Power Conference Games & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Michigan	Purdue	5.1
Wichita St.	Memphis	2.5
Michigan St.	Minnesota	12.1
Oregon	Arizona	1.2
Stanford	Washington	1.7
California	Washington St.	-0.1
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	4.7
Saint Mary’s	BYU	2.3

 

Coming Tomorrow–Updated Ratings and Bracketology

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	September 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Navy	18.1	15.0	19.5
Friday	September 27
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Duke	1.3	1.8	1.6
Maryland	Penn St.	-4.3	-3.8	-4.7
Air Force	San Jose St.	15.5	14.7	17.1
Saturday	September 28
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
California	Arizona St.	3.6	4.3	4.2
Wisconsin	Northwestern	15.0	15.7	16.3
Boston College	Wake Forest	-0.5	-0.1	-0.5
Central Florda	Connecticut	40.6	35.9	43.0
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	21.3	19.4	21.0
South Florida	SMU	-8.6	-7.4	-9.3
Miami (O)	Buffalo	1.9	-0.6	1.1
Temple	Georgia Tech	6.9	7.7	7.4
Florida St.	North Carolina St.	3.6	4.0	3.2
Baylor	Iowa St.	0.7	0.6	0.3
Toledo	BYU	-6.0	-5.6	-5.3
Massachusetts	Akron	-8.8	-6.7	-9.2
Michigan	Rutgers	28.4	26.4	29.1
Purdue	Minnesota	-0.9	-0.2	0.1
Georgia Southern	Louisiana	0.9	0.0	0.5
Iowa	Middle Tennessee	28.3	27.3	28.4
Wyoming	UNLV	13.1	13.0	13.5
Utah	Washington St.	6.7	5.9	6.6
New Mexico St.	Fresno St.	-20.3	-18.4	-21.1
Nevada	Hawaii	-0.4	-0.2	0.0
Oregon St.	Stanford	-6.5	-4.2	-7.5
Michigan St.	Indiana	13.4	14.6	14.9
North Carolina	Clemson	-29.2	-25.6	-29.3
South Carolina	Kentucky	6.3	6.0	7.4
Alabama	Ole Miss	37.1	34.3	39.1
Vanderbilt	Northern Illinois	10.6	10.5	9.3
TCU	Kansas	12.0	14.2	12.4
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	1.1	1.9	0.6
Auburn	Mississippi St.	7.0	9.2	7.0
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	19.7	18.6	20.6
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-0.3	1.1	-0.5
Notre Dame	Virginia	16.6	14.2	16.8
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	21.0	17.9	21.1
Marshall	Cincinnati	-9.3	-8.2	-8.2
Old Dominion	East Carolina	0.3	-1.3	1.3
Liberty	New Mexico	9.2	7.3	10.5
Troy	Arkansas St.	7.7	8.1	7.2
Louisiana-Monroe	South Alabama	17.0	14.5	18.1
Southern Miss.	UTEP	31.1	23.6	30.8
Rice	Louisiana Tech	-8.9	-7.3	-9.8
Western Kentucky	UAB	1.7	0.4	2.2
Utah St.	Colorado St.	29.1	24.3	30.4
Nebraska	Ohio St.	-22.5	-19.6	-23.7
North Texas	Houston	0.8	-0.6	-0.8
Texas A&M (n)	Arkansas	23.8	21.2	23.3
Washington	USC	9.5	8.0	10.1
Arizona	UCLA	6.6	7.1	8.0

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor		PiRate
Syracuse	Holy Cross		35
Pittsburgh	Delaware		29
Florida	Towson St.		36

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	136.1	132.5	137.2	135.2
2	Clemson	134.9	131.6	135.8	134.1
3	Ohio St.	132.2	130.7	132.9	131.9
4	Georgia	127.7	126.0	128.3	127.3
5	L S U	126.5	123.9	125.5	125.3
6	Oklahoma	122.6	121.7	122.5	122.3
7	Notre Dame	121.0	119.0	121.2	120.4
8	Florida	121.4	118.5	120.8	120.2
9	Wisconsin	119.6	119.3	119.7	119.5
10	Auburn	119.2	117.4	118.8	118.5
11	Michigan St.	117.7	117.3	118.0	117.7
12	Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	117.0	117.3
13	Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6
14	Michigan	117.1	115.0	117.2	116.4
15	Penn St.	116.7	115.6	116.3	116.2
16	Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0
17	Missouri	116.3	113.9	116.6	115.6
18	Iowa	116.0	114.0	116.1	115.3
19	Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8
20	Mississippi St.	115.2	111.2	114.8	113.7
21	Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6
22	Iowa St.	112.4	112.7	112.3	112.5
23	Texas	112.4	112.5	112.4	112.4
24	Kansas St.	112.1	111.8	112.1	112.0
25	Central Florida	111.5	110.7	112.6	111.6
26	Oklahoma St.	110.1	110.7	109.7	110.2
27	South Carolina	110.8	109.0	110.4	110.1
28	Baylor	110.1	110.2	109.6	110.0
29	Minnesota	109.7	109.0	108.3	109.0
30	Maryland	109.4	108.8	108.6	108.9
31	California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0
32	Miami (Fla.)	107.6	106.8	108.5	107.6
33	U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6
34	Virginia	107.4	107.8	107.4	107.5
35	Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0
36	Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0
37	Northwestern	107.6	106.6	106.4	106.9
38	Kentucky	107.5	106.0	106.0	106.5
39	Utah St.	106.3	105.3	107.7	106.4
40	Indiana	107.3	105.6	106.1	106.3
41	Pittsburgh	106.3	105.9	106.2	106.1
42	Syracuse	106.3	105.8	106.3	106.1
43	Boise St.	106.2	105.5	106.5	106.1
44	T C U	104.8	108.1	105.1	106.0
45	Purdue	105.8	105.8	105.3	105.6
46	Texas Tech	105.9	106.1	104.9	105.6
47	Memphis	105.3	105.1	106.4	105.6
48	Duke	105.5	105.0	105.4	105.3
49	Cincinnati	105.4	103.8	105.5	104.9
50	Appalachian St.	105.3	103.7	104.8	104.6
51	Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6
52	Tennessee	105.0	104.8	103.2	104.3
53	Wake Forest	104.3	103.8	104.9	104.3
54	West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3
55	Virginia Tech	103.7	103.9	104.0	103.9
56	SMU	102.9	102.7	103.9	103.2
57	North Carolina	102.7	103.0	103.6	103.1
58	Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7
59	Florida St.	102.6	102.8	102.4	102.6
60	North Carolina St.	102.0	101.8	102.3	102.0
61	Vanderbilt	102.6	101.3	101.3	101.7
62	Ole Miss	102.0	101.1	101.1	101.4
63	Army	101.2	101.3	100.8	101.1
64	Boston College	100.8	100.7	101.4	101.0
65	BYU	100.9	100.9	101.0	100.9
66	Tulane	100.2	100.7	100.8	100.6
67	Temple	100.4	99.4	101.4	100.4
68	Fresno St.	99.7	100.3	100.4	100.1
69	Western Michigan	100.4	99.2	100.4	100.0
70	Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5
71	Louisiana	98.7	98.9	98.5	98.7
72	Air Force	97.8	99.0	98.7	98.5
73	San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.8	98.4
74	U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4
75	Houston	96.1	97.2	98.7	97.3
76	Illinois	96.7	97.6	95.7	96.7
77	Georgia Southern	96.6	95.9	96.0	96.2
78	Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2
79	Wyoming	95.2	97.2	95.6	96.0
80	Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0
81	Troy	95.8	96.1	94.9	95.6
82	Arkansas	95.5	96.4	94.7	95.6
83	Georgia Tech	96.0	94.1	96.5	95.5
84	Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5
85	Louisville	95.9	95.6	95.1	95.5
86	North Texas	94.9	94.5	95.9	95.1
87	Southern Miss.	95.2	93.0	95.5	94.6
88	Marshall	93.6	93.1	94.8	93.8
89	Northern Illinois	93.9	92.8	94.0	93.6
90	Ohio	93.5	92.6	94.4	93.5
91	Tulsa	92.6	93.3	93.5	93.1
92	Toledo	91.9	92.3	92.7	92.3
93	South Florida	91.3	92.3	91.6	91.7
94	Louisiana Tech	91.5	91.3	91.7	91.5
95	Rutgers	91.7	91.6	91.1	91.5
96	Nevada	90.8	92.6	90.4	91.3
97	Navy	90.1	93.1	89.9	91.1
98	Arkansas St.	91.0	91.1	90.7	90.9
99	Florida Atlantic	90.5	89.8	91.2	90.5
100	Middle Tennessee	90.6	89.7	90.7	90.3
101	Eastern Michigan	89.5	89.9	90.2	89.9
102	Buffalo	89.0	89.6	89.9	89.5
103	Liberty	88.7	89.9	89.1	89.2
104	Florida Int’l.	89.1	88.7	89.2	89.0
105	U A B	87.8	89.7	88.5	88.7
106	Kent St.	88.1	88.1	88.6	88.3
107	Charlotte	87.7	88.4	88.2	88.1
108	Louisiana-Monroe	87.6	88.3	87.6	87.8
109	Miami (Ohio)	87.9	86.0	88.0	87.3
110	Western Kentucky	86.5	87.2	87.8	87.1
111	Ball St.	87.0	86.5	86.7	86.7
112	Coastal Carolina	86.4	87.8	85.7	86.6
113	Georgia St.	85.8	87.1	84.9	85.9
114	U N L V	85.1	87.2	85.1	85.8
115	San Jose St.	85.3	87.3	84.6	85.7
116	Texas St.	83.0	83.9	82.8	83.2
117	New Mexico	82.0	85.1	81.0	82.7
118	East Carolina	82.0	84.1	81.5	82.5
119	Colorado St.	80.1	84.0	80.3	81.5
120	Central Michigan	81.1	81.9	81.4	81.4
121	Rice	80.0	81.5	79.3	80.3
122	Old Dominion	79.8	80.3	80.2	80.1
123	New Mexico St.	77.0	79.4	76.8	77.7
124	Akron	76.1	76.3	75.5	75.9
125	Texas-San Antonio	74.3	76.5	73.9	74.9
126	Connecticut	73.9	77.8	72.6	74.8
127	South Alabama	73.1	76.2	72.0	73.8
128	Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0
129	U T E P	67.1	72.5	67.7	69.1
130	Massachusetts	65.3	67.6	64.3	65.7

 

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.5	110.7	112.6	111.6	0-0	3-1
Cincinnati	105.4	103.8	105.5	104.9	0-0	2-1
Temple	100.4	99.4	101.4	100.4	0-0	2-1
South Florida	91.3	92.3	91.6	91.7	0-0	1-2
East Carolina	82.0	84.1	81.5	82.5	0-1	2-2
Connecticut	73.9	77.8	72.6	74.8	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.3	105.1	106.4	105.6	0-0	3-0
SMU	102.9	102.7	103.9	103.2	0-0	4-0
Tulane	100.2	100.7	100.8	100.6	1-0	3-1
Houston	96.1	97.2	98.7	97.3	0-1	1-3
Tulsa	92.6	93.3	93.5	93.1	0-0	2-2
Navy	90.1	93.1	89.9	91.1	1-0	2-0
AAC Averages	96.0	96.7	96.5	96.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.9	131.6	135.8	134.1	2-0	4-0
Syracuse	106.3	105.8	106.3	106.1	0-1	2-2
Wake Forest	104.3	103.8	104.9	104.3	0-0	4-0
Florida St.	102.6	102.8	102.4	102.6	1-1	2-2
North Carolina St.	102.0	101.8	102.3	102.0	0-0	3-1
Boston College	100.8	100.7	101.4	101.0	1-0	3-1
Louisville	95.9	95.6	95.1	95.5	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	107.6	106.8	108.5	107.6	0-1	2-2
Virginia	107.4	107.8	107.4	107.5	2-0	4-0
Pittsburgh	106.3	105.9	106.2	106.1	0-1	2-2
Duke	105.5	105.0	105.4	105.3	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	103.7	103.9	104.0	103.9	0-1	2-1
North Carolina	102.7	103.0	103.6	103.1	1-0	2-2
Georgia Tech	96.0	94.1	96.5	95.5	0-1	1-2
ACC Averages	105.4	104.9	105.7	105.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.6	121.7	122.5	122.3	0-0	3-0
Iowa St.	112.4	112.7	112.3	112.5	0-0	2-1
Texas	112.4	112.5	112.4	112.4	1-0	3-1
Kansas St.	112.1	111.8	112.1	112.0	0-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	110.1	110.7	109.7	110.2	0-1	3-1
Baylor	110.1	110.2	109.6	110.0	0-0	3-0
T C U	104.8	108.1	105.1	106.0	0-0	2-1
Texas Tech	105.9	106.1	104.9	105.6	0-0	2-1
West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3	1-0	3-1
Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2	0-1	2-2
Big 12 Averages	109.1	109.5	108.8	109.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	132.2	130.7	132.9	131.9	1-0	4-0
Michigan St.	117.7	117.3	118.0	117.7	1-0	3-1
Michigan	117.1	115.0	117.2	116.4	0-1	2-1
Penn St.	116.7	115.6	116.3	116.2	0-0	3-0
Maryland	109.4	108.8	108.6	108.9	0-0	2-1
Indiana	107.3	105.6	106.1	106.3	0-1	3-1
Rutgers	91.7	91.6	91.1	91.5	0-1	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	119.6	119.3	119.7	119.5	1-0	3-0
Iowa	116.0	114.0	116.1	115.3	1-0	3-0
Minnesota	109.7	109.0	108.3	109.0	0-0	3-0
Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0	1-0	3-1
Northwestern	107.6	106.6	106.4	106.9	0-1	1-2
Purdue	105.8	105.8	105.3	105.6	0-0	1-2
Illinois	96.7	97.6	95.7	96.7	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	111.0	110.4	110.6	110.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.6	93.1	94.8	93.8	0-0	2-1
Florida Atlantic	90.5	89.8	91.2	90.5	0-0	2-2
Middle Tennessee	90.6	89.7	90.7	90.3	0-0	1-2
Florida Int’l.	89.1	88.7	89.2	89.0	0-2	1-3
Charlotte	87.7	88.4	88.2	88.1	0-0	2-2
Western Kentucky	86.5	87.2	87.8	87.1	1-0	1-2
Old Dominion	79.8	80.3	80.2	80.1	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
North Texas	94.9	94.5	95.9	95.1	1-0	2-2
Southern Miss.	95.2	93.0	95.5	94.6	0-0	2-2
Louisiana Tech	91.5	91.3	91.7	91.5	1-0	3-1
U A B	87.8	89.7	88.5	88.7	0-0	3-0
Rice	80.0	81.5	79.3	80.3	0-0	0-4
Texas-San Antonio	74.3	76.5	73.9	74.9	0-1	1-3
U T E P	67.1	72.5	67.7	69.1	0-0	1-2
CUSA Averages	86.3	86.9	86.8	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.0	119.0	121.2	120.4	x	2-1
Army	101.2	101.3	100.8	101.1	x	3-1
BYU	100.9	100.9	101.0	100.9	x	2-2
Liberty	88.7	89.9	89.1	89.2	x	2-2
New Mexico St.	77.0	79.4	76.8	77.7	x	0-4
Massachusetts	65.3	67.6	64.3	65.7	x	0-4
Indep. Averages	92.3	93.0	92.2	92.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	93.5	92.6	94.4	93.5	0-0	1-3
Buffalo	89.0	89.6	89.9	89.5	0-0	2-2
Kent St.	88.1	88.1	88.6	88.3	1-0	2-2
Miami (Ohio)	87.9	86.0	88.0	87.3	0-0	1-3
Akron	76.1	76.3	75.5	75.9	0-1	0-4
Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	100.4	99.2	100.4	100.0	0-0	2-2
Northern Illinois	93.9	92.8	94.0	93.6	0-0	1-2
Toledo	91.9	92.3	92.7	92.3	0-0	2-1
Eastern Michigan	89.5	89.9	90.2	89.9	0-0	3-1
Ball St.	87.0	86.5	86.7	86.7	0-0	1-3
Central Michigan	81.1	81.9	81.4	81.4	1-0	2-2
MAC Averages	87.5	87.3	87.8	87.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	106.3	105.3	107.7	106.4	1-0	2-1
Boise St.	106.2	105.5	106.5	106.1	1-0	4-0
Air Force	97.8	99.0	98.7	98.5	0-1	2-1
Wyoming	95.2	97.2	95.6	96.0	0-0	3-1
New Mexico	82.0	85.1	81.0	82.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado St.	80.1	84.0	80.3	81.5	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.7	100.3	100.4	100.1	0-0	1-2
San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.8	98.4	0-1	3-1
Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0	0-0	3-1
Nevada	90.8	92.6	90.4	91.3	0-0	3-1
U N L V	85.1	87.2	85.1	85.8	0-0	1-2
San Jose St.	85.3	87.3	84.6	85.7	0-0	2-1
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.6	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6	1-0	3-1
Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8	0-1	3-1
Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6	0-1	3-1
California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0	1-0	4-0
Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6	0-2	1-3
Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5	0-0	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0	0-1	3-1
U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6	2-0	3-1
Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0	0-1	3-1
Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	1-0	3-1
U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4	1-0	1-3
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.7	126.0	128.3	127.3	1-0	4-0
Florida	121.4	118.5	120.8	120.2	2-0	4-0
Missouri	116.3	113.9	116.6	115.6	1-0	3-1
South Carolina	110.8	109.0	110.4	110.1	0-2	1-3
Kentucky	107.5	106.0	106.0	106.5	0-2	2-2
Tennessee	105.0	104.8	103.2	104.3	0-1	1-3
Vanderbilt	102.6	101.3	101.3	101.7	0-2	0-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	136.1	132.5	137.2	135.2	1-0	4-0
L S U	126.5	123.9	125.5	125.3	1-0	4-0
Auburn	119.2	117.4	118.8	118.5	1-0	4-0
Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	117.0	117.3	0-1	2-2
Mississippi St.	115.2	111.2	114.8	113.7	1-0	3-1
Ole Miss	102.0	101.1	101.1	101.4	1-0	2-2
Arkansas	95.5	96.4	94.7	95.6	0-1	2-2
SEC Averages	114.6	112.7	114.0	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.3	103.7	104.8	104.6	0-0	3-0
Georgia Southern	96.6	95.9	96.0	96.2	0-0	1-2
Troy	95.8	96.1	94.9	95.6	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	86.4	87.8	85.7	86.6	0-0	3-1
Georgia St.	85.8	87.1	84.9	85.9	0-1	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	98.7	98.9	98.5	98.7	0-0	3-1
Arkansas St.	91.0	91.1	90.7	90.9	0-0	2-2
Louisiana-Monroe	87.6	88.3	87.6	87.8	0-0	1-2
Texas St.	83.0	83.9	82.8	83.2	1-0	1-3
South Alabama	73.1	76.2	72.0	73.8	0-0	1-3
SBC Averages	90.3	90.9	89.8	90.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.8
2	BTen	110.6
3	B12	109.1
4	P12	106.9
5	ACC	105.3
6	AAC	96.4
7	MWC	94.0
8	Ind	92.5
9	SUN	90.3
10	MAC	87.5
11	CUSA	86.7

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Boise St.
2	Memphis
3	SMU
4	UAB
5	Navy

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Eastern Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Utah St.]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Troy
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	Nevada
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Hawaii	USC
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	UAB
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Houston
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Western Michigan]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	Indiana
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Kentucky
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	California	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Arizona St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Kansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Boise St.	Auburn
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	[Fresno St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Colorado]	North Carolina St.
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Army]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	[Boston College]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Iowa	Florida
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Mississippi St.	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Purdue	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games This Week

 

 

Memphis vs. Navy: The winner of this game will have a leg up in the AAC West, and with Central Florida losing at Pitt, there is a possibility that the Western Division champion could win the Conference Championship Game and have a shot at the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.  Memphis has never been in a major bowl, although they had a team that should have gotten one in 1963, when the Tigers finished 9-0-1 and tied undefeated Ole Miss.  Navy has been in five major bowls, winning the Sugar Bowl in 1955 and the Orange Bowl in 1958, while losing the Cotton Bowl in 1963, when it was for a shot at the National Championship.

California vs. Arizona St.: Had Arizona State beaten Colorado Saturday, this would have been the top game of the day.  Cal is the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, and even if the Bears were to somehow run the table, they have little chance of making the Playoffs.  Still, this is a key game for the West Coast, as the more Cal continues to win, the better off for the Conference of Champions.

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan: The winner of this game definitely has a path to bowl eligibility.  If CMU wins this game, Jim McElwain will start getting some notice as a potential Power 5 School head coach, because the Chippewas were picked to finish in last place in the MAC West.

Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo: The Bulls didn’t just upset Temple Saturday; they pummeled the Owls into submission.  Miami should have done what Indiana did under Lee Corso many years ago–The Wacky Hoosiers’ coach called time out in 1976 just to take a team picture under the scoreboard when his team led the Buckeyes 7-6.  Miami led Ohio State 5-0 in the first quarter.  Corso’s Hoosiers lost their game 47-7.  Miami lost 76-5.  Still, the Redhawks have a shot at bowl eligibility, but they may have to uspet Buffalo to get there.  This is a perfect sandwich game for Buffalo, as they have Ohio U next week.

Florida St. vs. North Carolina St: Two weeks ago, Willie Taggart was sledding on thin ice at Florida State.  After a win over Louisville, the Seminoles are 2-2, and a win over NC State just might lead the Seminoles on a path to bowl eligibility.  Taggart has always had slow turnarounds.  He did so at Western Kentucky and at South Florida.  He was only at Oregon for a season, and this is just year two in Tallahassee.  If the fans and boosters give him a little more time, he will turn the FSU program back into a top tier program.  Dave Doeren has done a credible job in Raleigh with the Wolfpack, but this is looking like a slight down year for NC St.  The winner of this game will get to bowl eligibility.

Baylor vs. Iowa St.: The winner of this game remains a contender for one of the two Big 12 Championship Game spots.  Baylor has yet to play up to its potential to this point of the season.  They have the talent to win double-digit games this year, but they could lose the next two if they don’t bring their “A-game” to this week’s and next week’s games.  Iowa St. took their frustrations out on a Louisiana-Monroe team that isn’t as bad as the 72-20 loss indicates.  This game should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.  

Purdue vs. Minnesota: The winner of this game stays in contention for a bowl game.  If Minnesota wins on the road, then the Gophers will have a chance to start the season 8-0 before Penn State comes to Minneapolis.  Purdue must win this game, or the Boilermakers will not have a path to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana: Why do we call this a key game?  These two teams are stronger than you realize.  The Ragin’ Cajuns just trounced Ohio in Athens, while Georgia Southern is hiding in ambush at 1-2 with losses to undefeated Minnesota and unbelievable LSU.  The Eagles had an extra week to prepare for this game, while UL may be looking forward to their game with Appy State the following week.  The winner of this game will most definitely play a 13th game and maybe even a 14th game.

Utah vs. Washington St.: The loser of this game will have a two-game losing streak, after the two teams lost to the Los Angeles teams.  Utah’s loss at USC was surprising but not shocking.  If you didn’t stay up and watch the Washington State-UCLA game, you might not believe that Washington State scored 63 points.  Quarterback Anthony Gordon threw for 570 yards and nine touchdowns. However, it wasn’t good enough.  UCLA scored 67 points and came from 25 points down to pull off one of the most incredible upsets of the season.  The Bruins had scored 14 points in each of their first three games.  The winner of this game stays in contention for their division title, while the loser is looking at a December bowl.

Nevada vs. Hawaii: This game is for first place in the MAC West.  Hawaii usually plays much better at home than on the road, and playing in Reno gives Nevada a larger than normal home field advantage.  Nevada still has road games with Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, and Fresno State.  This is a must win game for the Wolf Pack if they are to make it to the MAC Championship Game.  A Rainbow Warrior win in this game, and it could be lights out for the rest of the division.

Oklahoma St. vs. Kansas St.: Chris Klieman came to the Little Apple having won back to back FCS National Championships at North Dakota State.  He has a personal winning streak of 24 games.  Kansas State had the week off after winning at Mississippi State, and now they entertain the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough loss at Texas.  If KSU wins this game in Stillwater, they then play three consecutive home games against three top contenders.  If Okie St. wins, then they stay in contention for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Auburn vs. Mississippi St.: It’s hard to think about a division game with a potential New Years’s Day Bowl participant as a potential sandwich game, but Auburn faces the Bulldogs between road games against Texas A&M and Florida.  This is the perfect chance for Mississippi State to pull off a big upset.  Auburn may not have enough offensive firepower to exploit State’s vulnerabilities on defense.  Of course, the Tiger defensive line is strong enough to hold the Bullies to less than 17 points, and Auburn will score 20 or more in this game.

Nebraska vs. Ohio St.: The last time the Buckeyes came to Lincoln, Nebraska suffered one of its most devastating home losses ever, losing 56-14.  Last year in Columbus, Nebraska came very close to pulling off the big upset.  Can the Cornhuskers have a shot in this game?  Last year’s Ohio State team was struggling a little bit when Nebraska played at the Horseshoe.  The Ohio State offense should make this game look more like the 2017 game in Lincoln.

Washington vs. USC: If the Trojans can leave Seattle with a win this weekend, Clay Helton might be able to begin to think about renewing his satellite TV subscription at his SoCal home for 2020.  A loss might put UW two games behind Cal, which would almost eliminate the Huskies from the North Division title race.  So, this is a must-win game for UW.

Note: Some of you (several somes of you) have contacted us through our other site wanting to know more information about the “Sharps” that are friends of the PiRate Ratings.  In Friday’s post here, we gave out a 5-game money line parlay with +250 odds that we inferred based on information given to us by one of our friends in Nevada.

So, the parlay won in theory.  If you did not heed our warning and actually played this one, you too won big on Saturday.

Unfortunately, this will not be a recurring thing here.  We cannot reveal the information we receive from Vegas, because the Sharps playing these parlays also have a service where they charge for their advice.  The specific Sharp that gave us this pick has asked not to be identified, and we are fine with that.  After all, we do not condone actual betting of money on sporting events.  Whether this parlay won or not, we were guaranteed not to win or lose, since we did not play it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Money Line Parlay Picks for August 31-September 4, 2017

If you have been following the PiRate Ratings for a few years, you will know that we have issued selections on games every year since this page was created. Over the course of many football seasons, our money line parlay selections have been the most popular feature we have published. There is good reason for this–they have been successful. Last year, our selections returned better than 8% on investment, which was so-so, but it was still a winning season, making it three successful seasons in a row.
Regular readers here may also remember that our money line parlay selections have tended to perform their best in October and November, so keep that in mind if you use our free advice as a wagering tool. You should know this (and if you are a regular you have read this many times in this feature–we NEVER wager on sports contests. This is strictly an exercise in mathematical fun, which makes it so much easier for us to publish these parlays.

The true opening week of the football season does not give us NFL regular season games, so we have a reduced amount of games available in our menu. Therefore, we are issuing just one parlay for this week.

This parlay gives us a calculated odd of +138, so for every $100 of imaginary bank account we invest, if this parlay wins we will receive $238 back ($138 + the $100 we invested). Of course if this play loses, then we lose the $100 of imaginary investment.
Without further adieu, here is our selection for Labor Day Weekend.

1. Money Line Parlay at +138
Ohio State over Indiana
Nebraska over Arkansas St.
North Carolina over California
Georgia over Appalachian St.
Alabama over Florida St.

If you are interested in knowing how we calculate the odds of our parlays, we use offshore books only in finding the best overall odds for the games we wish to play. Since we do not work for these sports books, we will not give them free advertising and name names. However, if you look at offshore money line odds online at any of numerous sites, it should not be that difficult to find one particular site with the most favorable odds. Most sites have a money line parlay calculator, and if not, you can find this at many different sites. Parlay odds can be figured by doing some math, but you can save a lot of time by using these calculators.

We always round down to the nearest whole dollar when calculating the payout odds of the parlays. In actuality, today’s parlay should return $238.46 for every $100 invested (or $138.46 profit) rather than $238.

Selection Sunday Ayem–March 12, 2017

Like Xmas Day For A Basketball Junkie

5:30 PM Eastern DAYLIGHT Time cannot come quickly enough.  Today is the day fans of 68 teams get to open their March Madness presents.  Most of the teams that will be dancing know they are in, be it with an automatic bid or a for sure at-large bid.  The Bubble has shrunk to just a few teams, and our Bracketology Gurus believe they have the 68 teams this morning before any games are played today.  Only the seeding may be altered by today’s games, but they agree in 100% unison that the teams we will list are the 68 teams that will continue to pursue their National Championship dreams.

THE FINAL BUBBLE

California

Illinois St.

Iowa

Kansas St.

Rhode Island

Syracuse

USC

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Xavier

Room at the Inn for six of these 10 teams, so which six make it, and which 4 are number one seeds in the NIT?

The six we have in are (alphabetically): Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Xavier.

The four that will need tissues to wipe their tears are: California, Illinois State, Iowa, and Syracuse

The one that the Gurus believe should be in over one that should be out is Illinois State rather than USC.  However, the Gurus are selecting based on how they predict the Selection Committee will select, and even through the rules state that teams are not chosen within a conference by conference basis, subconsciously the members will look and see that they cannot exclude both Cal and the Trojans.  USC’s win over SMU is the reason the men of Troy get in over the men of Berkeley.

 

There are six games left to be played, and the seed lines could change based on who wins, but the Committee does not change their final seedings within the last two hours, so the final scores of some of the games will be official after the final seeding has been done.  Thus, the AAC and Big Ten Championship Games will still be underway when the final seeds are completed.  Only the name of the Sun Belt Conference Champion will have to be added late, and the Committee can already put the first letter of that champion on the board–a “T” (Texas State or Troy).

 

Here is today’s schedule.

American Athletic Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	SMU	29-4	vs.	2	Cincinnati	29-4	3:15 PM	ESPN
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Rhode Island	23-9	vs.	2	VCU	26-7	12:30 PM	CBS
Big Ten Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8	Michigan	23-11	vs.	2	Wisconsin	25-8	3:00 PM	CBS
Ivy League Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Princeton	22-6	vs.	3	Yale	18-10	12:00 PM	ESPN2
Southeastern Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Kentucky	28-5	vs.	3	Arkansas	25-8	1:00 PM	ESPN
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Texas St.	20-12	vs.	6	Troy	21-14	2:00 PM	ESPN2
Selection Sunday
5:30 PM EDT on CBS
NCAA Tournament
First Four: March 14-15
Second Round: March 16-17
Third Round: March 18-19
Sweet 16: March 23-24
Elite Eight: March 25-26
Final Four: April 1
National Championship: April 3

The Bracketology Gurus Field of 68

1. Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina
2. Duke, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
3. Baylor, Louisville, Florida St., UCLA
4. West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
5. Florida, Iowa St., Virginia, Purdue
6. Wisconsin, SMU, Minnesota, Michigan
7. Creighton, Arkansas, Saint Mary’s, Wichita St.
8. Maryland, Miami (Fla.), VCU, Virginia Tech
9. Northwestern, Oklahoma St., Dayton, Seton Hall
10. Michigan St., South Carolina, Marquette, Providence
11. Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Vanderbilt, USC, Wake Forest
12. UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont, Rhode Island, Kansas St.
13. Bucknell, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee St.
14. Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Iona, Northern Kentucky
15. Texas Southern, Kent State, Jacksonville St., North Dakota
16. Texas St., UNC-Central, New Orleans, South Dakota St., UC-Davis, Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes: Marquette, Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier

Last Four In (Dayton Bound): USC vs. Wake Forest, Rhode Island vs. Kansas St.

First Four Out (#1 Seeds in NIT): California, Illinois St., Iowa, and Syracuse

 

Coming Next:  We go dark for 48 hours.  Tuesday morning, we will premier PiRate Bracketnomics for 2017 with a total primer on how we handle our bracket picking and outright winners of games for you that failed to heed our warnings and chose to wager your hard-earned dollars in Vegas or offshore.  FWIW, we have heard from a half-dozen of you that you have found something in our Blue Ratings that have made you handsome profits this year.  We hope that continues for you, but please do not rely on just our ratings to wager money with books in Vegas.  We don’t want the guilt trip when you cannot pay your April Mortgage or car payment.

In addition to Bracketnomics, we will also give you all the raw data to use for yourself.  We will have a spreadsheet of all 68 teams with their Four Factors, their PiRate Specific Ratings, and then follow that up with how the teams fit in our Final Four footprint.  We have backtested the data we use as far back as each statistic allows us to do, and we will include that in our preview.

Tell all your friends to check us out.  The Tuesday preview is our most visited entry of the year, even more than our Super Bowl and College Playoff National Championship football editions.

 

But remember our axiom: We are just a bunch of math nerds doing this for fun.  Please wager responsibly, or like us just wager a lunch with your friend.  Also, remember that you have a better chance of being abducted by aliens from space while being struck by lightning, as you hold the winning Power Ball and Mega Millions lottery tickets while getting a kiss from a supermodel (all at the same time) than you do of picking a perfect bracket.

Note: Special Congrats go to Renato Nunez on his impressive home run at Hohokam Park yesterday against the Rangers.