The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 19, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 19, 2020

Division 1 Basketball Games on Sunday

 

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Canisius

Rider

-0.8

Chicago State

Cal St. Bakersfield

-15.8

Cincinnati

East Carolina

16.9

Fordham

Davidson

-7.4

Illinois State

Loyola (Chi.)

-4.9

Maine

Binghamton

1.8

Marist

Iona

-4.5

Niagara

Siena

-2.2

North Dakota State

North Dakota

7.4

Rutgers

Minnesota

3.9

South Dakota

South Dakota State

-1.3

Southern Illinois

Drake

0.1

UCLA

California

6.5

UMKC

Grand Canyon

3.3

Wake Forest

Boston College

6.7

January 16, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 16, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:30 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

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Memphis

Cincinnati

4.7

Arizona

Utah

14.3

Arizona St.

Colorado

-1.7

BYU

San Diego

18.1

USC

California

11.0

Gonzaga

Santa Clara

18.4

Washington

Oregon St.

4.1

 

 

January 9, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 9, 2020

Power Conference Games & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

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Michigan

Purdue

5.1

Wichita St.

Memphis

2.5

Michigan St.

Minnesota

12.1

Oregon

Arizona

1.2

Stanford

Washington

1.7

California

Washington St.

-0.1

Oregon St.

Arizona St.

4.7

Saint Mary’s

BYU

2.3

 

Coming Tomorrow–Updated Ratings and Bracketology

September 22, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Memphis

Navy

18.1

15.0

19.5

 

 

Friday

September 27

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Virginia Tech

Duke

1.3

1.8

1.6

Maryland

Penn St.

-4.3

-3.8

-4.7

Air Force

San Jose St.

15.5

14.7

17.1

 

 

Saturday

September 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

California

Arizona St.

3.6

4.3

4.2

Wisconsin

Northwestern

15.0

15.7

16.3

Boston College

Wake Forest

-0.5

-0.1

-0.5

Central Florda

Connecticut

40.6

35.9

43.0

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

21.3

19.4

21.0

South Florida

SMU

-8.6

-7.4

-9.3

Miami (O)

Buffalo

1.9

-0.6

1.1

Temple

Georgia Tech

6.9

7.7

7.4

Florida St.

North Carolina St.

3.6

4.0

3.2

Baylor

Iowa St.

0.7

0.6

0.3

Toledo

BYU

-6.0

-5.6

-5.3

Massachusetts

Akron

-8.8

-6.7

-9.2

Michigan

Rutgers

28.4

26.4

29.1

Purdue

Minnesota

-0.9

-0.2

0.1

Georgia Southern

Louisiana

0.9

0.0

0.5

Iowa

Middle Tennessee

28.3

27.3

28.4

Wyoming

UNLV

13.1

13.0

13.5

Utah

Washington St.

6.7

5.9

6.6

New Mexico St.

Fresno St.

-20.3

-18.4

-21.1

Nevada

Hawaii

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

Oregon St.

Stanford

-6.5

-4.2

-7.5

Michigan St.

Indiana

13.4

14.6

14.9

North Carolina

Clemson

-29.2

-25.6

-29.3

South Carolina

Kentucky

6.3

6.0

7.4

Alabama

Ole Miss

37.1

34.3

39.1

Vanderbilt

Northern Illinois

10.6

10.5

9.3

TCU

Kansas

12.0

14.2

12.4

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

1.1

1.9

0.6

Auburn

Mississippi St.

7.0

9.2

7.0

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

19.7

18.6

20.6

Charlotte

Florida Atlantic

-0.3

1.1

-0.5

Notre Dame

Virginia

16.6

14.2

16.8

Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina

21.0

17.9

21.1

Marshall

Cincinnati

-9.3

-8.2

-8.2

Old Dominion

East Carolina

0.3

-1.3

1.3

Liberty

New Mexico

9.2

7.3

10.5

Troy

Arkansas St.

7.7

8.1

7.2

Louisiana-Monroe

South Alabama

17.0

14.5

18.1

Southern Miss.

UTEP

31.1

23.6

30.8

Rice

Louisiana Tech

-8.9

-7.3

-9.8

Western Kentucky

UAB

1.7

0.4

2.2

Utah St.

Colorado St.

29.1

24.3

30.4

Nebraska

Ohio St.

-22.5

-19.6

-23.7

North Texas

Houston

0.8

-0.6

-0.8

Texas A&M (n)

Arkansas

23.8

21.2

23.3

Washington

USC

9.5

8.0

10.1

Arizona

UCLA

6.6

7.1

8.0

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Syracuse

Holy Cross

35

Pittsburgh

Delaware

29

Florida

Towson St.

36

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

136.1

132.5

137.2

135.2

2

Clemson

134.9

131.6

135.8

134.1

3

Ohio St.

132.2

130.7

132.9

131.9

4

Georgia

127.7

126.0

128.3

127.3

5

L S U

126.5

123.9

125.5

125.3

6

Oklahoma

122.6

121.7

122.5

122.3

7

Notre Dame

121.0

119.0

121.2

120.4

8

Florida

121.4

118.5

120.8

120.2

9

Wisconsin

119.6

119.3

119.7

119.5

10

Auburn

119.2

117.4

118.8

118.5

11

Michigan St.

117.7

117.3

118.0

117.7

12

Texas A&M

118.3

116.6

117.0

117.3

13

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

14

Michigan

117.1

115.0

117.2

116.4

15

Penn St.

116.7

115.6

116.3

116.2

16

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

17

Missouri

116.3

113.9

116.6

115.6

18

Iowa

116.0

114.0

116.1

115.3

19

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

20

Mississippi St.

115.2

111.2

114.8

113.7

21

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

22

Iowa St.

112.4

112.7

112.3

112.5

23

Texas

112.4

112.5

112.4

112.4

24

Kansas St.

112.1

111.8

112.1

112.0

25

Central Florida

111.5

110.7

112.6

111.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.7

110.2

27

South Carolina

110.8

109.0

110.4

110.1

28

Baylor

110.1

110.2

109.6

110.0

29

Minnesota

109.7

109.0

108.3

109.0

30

Maryland

109.4

108.8

108.6

108.9

31

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

107.6

106.8

108.5

107.6

33

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

34

Virginia

107.4

107.8

107.4

107.5

35

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

36

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

37

Northwestern

107.6

106.6

106.4

106.9

38

Kentucky

107.5

106.0

106.0

106.5

39

Utah St.

106.3

105.3

107.7

106.4

40

Indiana

107.3

105.6

106.1

106.3

41

Pittsburgh

106.3

105.9

106.2

106.1

42

Syracuse

106.3

105.8

106.3

106.1

43

Boise St.

106.2

105.5

106.5

106.1

44

T C U

104.8

108.1

105.1

106.0

45

Purdue

105.8

105.8

105.3

105.6

46

Texas Tech

105.9

106.1

104.9

105.6

47

Memphis

105.3

105.1

106.4

105.6

48

Duke

105.5

105.0

105.4

105.3

49

Cincinnati

105.4

103.8

105.5

104.9

50

Appalachian St.

105.3

103.7

104.8

104.6

51

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

52

Tennessee

105.0

104.8

103.2

104.3

53

Wake Forest

104.3

103.8

104.9

104.3

54

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

55

Virginia Tech

103.7

103.9

104.0

103.9

56

SMU

102.9

102.7

103.9

103.2

57

North Carolina

102.7

103.0

103.6

103.1

58

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

59

Florida St.

102.6

102.8

102.4

102.6

60

North Carolina St.

102.0

101.8

102.3

102.0

61

Vanderbilt

102.6

101.3

101.3

101.7

62

Ole Miss

102.0

101.1

101.1

101.4

63

Army

101.2

101.3

100.8

101.1

64

Boston College

100.8

100.7

101.4

101.0

65

BYU

100.9

100.9

101.0

100.9

66

Tulane

100.2

100.7

100.8

100.6

67

Temple

100.4

99.4

101.4

100.4

68

Fresno St.

99.7

100.3

100.4

100.1

69

Western Michigan

100.4

99.2

100.4

100.0

70

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

71

Louisiana

98.7

98.9

98.5

98.7

72

Air Force

97.8

99.0

98.7

98.5

73

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.8

98.4

74

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

75

Houston

96.1

97.2

98.7

97.3

76

Illinois

96.7

97.6

95.7

96.7

77

Georgia Southern

96.6

95.9

96.0

96.2

78

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

79

Wyoming

95.2

97.2

95.6

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

81

Troy

95.8

96.1

94.9

95.6

82

Arkansas

95.5

96.4

94.7

95.6

83

Georgia Tech

96.0

94.1

96.5

95.5

84

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

85

Louisville

95.9

95.6

95.1

95.5

86

North Texas

94.9

94.5

95.9

95.1

87

Southern Miss.

95.2

93.0

95.5

94.6

88

Marshall

93.6

93.1

94.8

93.8

89

Northern Illinois

93.9

92.8

94.0

93.6

90

Ohio

93.5

92.6

94.4

93.5

91

Tulsa

92.6

93.3

93.5

93.1

92

Toledo

91.9

92.3

92.7

92.3

93

South Florida

91.3

92.3

91.6

91.7

94

Louisiana Tech

91.5

91.3

91.7

91.5

95

Rutgers

91.7

91.6

91.1

91.5

96

Nevada

90.8

92.6

90.4

91.3

97

Navy

90.1

93.1

89.9

91.1

98

Arkansas St.

91.0

91.1

90.7

90.9

99

Florida Atlantic

90.5

89.8

91.2

90.5

100

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89.7

90.7

90.3

101

Eastern Michigan

89.5

89.9

90.2

89.9

102

Buffalo

89.0

89.6

89.9

89.5

103

Liberty

88.7

89.9

89.1

89.2

104

Florida Int’l.

89.1

88.7

89.2

89.0

105

U A B

87.8

89.7

88.5

88.7

106

Kent St.

88.1

88.1

88.6

88.3

107

Charlotte

87.7

88.4

88.2

88.1

108

Louisiana-Monroe

87.6

88.3

87.6

87.8

109

Miami (Ohio)

87.9

86.0

88.0

87.3

110

Western Kentucky

86.5

87.2

87.8

87.1

111

Ball St.

87.0

86.5

86.7

86.7

112

Coastal Carolina

86.4

87.8

85.7

86.6

113

Georgia St.

85.8

87.1

84.9

85.9

114

U N L V

85.1

87.2

85.1

85.8

115

San Jose St.

85.3

87.3

84.6

85.7

116

Texas St.

83.0

83.9

82.8

83.2

117

New Mexico

82.0

85.1

81.0

82.7

118

East Carolina

82.0

84.1

81.5

82.5

119

Colorado St.

80.1

84.0

80.3

81.5

120

Central Michigan

81.1

81.9

81.4

81.4

121

Rice

80.0

81.5

79.3

80.3

122

Old Dominion

79.8

80.3

80.2

80.1

123

New Mexico St.

77.0

79.4

76.8

77.7

124

Akron

76.1

76.3

75.5

75.9

125

Texas-San Antonio

74.3

76.5

73.9

74.9

126

Connecticut

73.9

77.8

72.6

74.8

127

South Alabama

73.1

76.2

72.0

73.8

128

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

129

U T E P

67.1

72.5

67.7

69.1

130

Massachusetts

65.3

67.6

64.3

65.7

 

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.7

112.6

111.6

0-0

3-1

Cincinnati

105.4

103.8

105.5

104.9

0-0

2-1

Temple

100.4

99.4

101.4

100.4

0-0

2-1

South Florida

91.3

92.3

91.6

91.7

0-0

1-2

East Carolina

82.0

84.1

81.5

82.5

0-1

2-2

Connecticut

73.9

77.8

72.6

74.8

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.3

105.1

106.4

105.6

0-0

3-0

SMU

102.9

102.7

103.9

103.2

0-0

4-0

Tulane

100.2

100.7

100.8

100.6

1-0

3-1

Houston

96.1

97.2

98.7

97.3

0-1

1-3

Tulsa

92.6

93.3

93.5

93.1

0-0

2-2

Navy

90.1

93.1

89.9

91.1

1-0

2-0

AAC Averages

96.0

96.7

96.5

96.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.9

131.6

135.8

134.1

2-0

4-0

Syracuse

106.3

105.8

106.3

106.1

0-1

2-2

Wake Forest

104.3

103.8

104.9

104.3

0-0

4-0

Florida St.

102.6

102.8

102.4

102.6

1-1

2-2

North Carolina St.

102.0

101.8

102.3

102.0

0-0

3-1

Boston College

100.8

100.7

101.4

101.0

1-0

3-1

Louisville

95.9

95.6

95.1

95.5

0-1

2-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

107.6

106.8

108.5

107.6

0-1

2-2

Virginia

107.4

107.8

107.4

107.5

2-0

4-0

Pittsburgh

106.3

105.9

106.2

106.1

0-1

2-2

Duke

105.5

105.0

105.4

105.3

0-0

2-1

Virginia Tech

103.7

103.9

104.0

103.9

0-1

2-1

North Carolina

102.7

103.0

103.6

103.1

1-0

2-2

Georgia Tech

96.0

94.1

96.5

95.5

0-1

1-2

ACC Averages

105.4

104.9

105.7

105.3

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.6

121.7

122.5

122.3

0-0

3-0

Iowa St.

112.4

112.7

112.3

112.5

0-0

2-1

Texas

112.4

112.5

112.4

112.4

1-0

3-1

Kansas St.

112.1

111.8

112.1

112.0

0-0

3-0

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.7

110.2

0-1

3-1

Baylor

110.1

110.2

109.6

110.0

0-0

3-0

T C U

104.8

108.1

105.1

106.0

0-0

2-1

Texas Tech

105.9

106.1

104.9

105.6

0-0

2-1

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

1-0

3-1

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

0-1

2-2

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.8

109.1

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

132.2

130.7

132.9

131.9

1-0

4-0

Michigan St.

117.7

117.3

118.0

117.7

1-0

3-1

Michigan

117.1

115.0

117.2

116.4

0-1

2-1

Penn St.

116.7

115.6

116.3

116.2

0-0

3-0

Maryland

109.4

108.8

108.6

108.9

0-0

2-1

Indiana

107.3

105.6

106.1

106.3

0-1

3-1

Rutgers

91.7

91.6

91.1

91.5

0-1

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

119.6

119.3

119.7

119.5

1-0

3-0

Iowa

116.0

114.0

116.1

115.3

1-0

3-0

Minnesota

109.7

109.0

108.3

109.0

0-0

3-0

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

1-0

3-1

Northwestern

107.6

106.6

106.4

106.9

0-1

1-2

Purdue

105.8

105.8

105.3

105.6

0-0

1-2

Illinois

96.7

97.6

95.7

96.7

0-1

2-2

Big Ten Averages

111.0

110.4

110.6

110.6

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.6

93.1

94.8

93.8

0-0

2-1

Florida Atlantic

90.5

89.8

91.2

90.5

0-0

2-2

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89.7

90.7

90.3

0-0

1-2

Florida Int’l.

89.1

88.7

89.2

89.0

0-2

1-3

Charlotte

87.7

88.4

88.2

88.1

0-0

2-2

Western Kentucky

86.5

87.2

87.8

87.1

1-0

1-2

Old Dominion

79.8

80.3

80.2

80.1

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

North Texas

94.9

94.5

95.9

95.1

1-0

2-2

Southern Miss.

95.2

93.0

95.5

94.6

0-0

2-2

Louisiana Tech

91.5

91.3

91.7

91.5

1-0

3-1

U A B

87.8

89.7

88.5

88.7

0-0

3-0

Rice

80.0

81.5

79.3

80.3

0-0

0-4

Texas-San Antonio

74.3

76.5

73.9

74.9

0-1

1-3

U T E P

67.1

72.5

67.7

69.1

0-0

1-2

CUSA Averages

86.3

86.9

86.8

86.7

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.0

119.0

121.2

120.4

x

2-1

Army

101.2

101.3

100.8

101.1

x

3-1

BYU

100.9

100.9

101.0

100.9

x

2-2

Liberty

88.7

89.9

89.1

89.2

x

2-2

New Mexico St.

77.0

79.4

76.8

77.7

x

0-4

Massachusetts

65.3

67.6

64.3

65.7

x

0-4

Indep. Averages

92.3

93.0

92.2

92.5

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.5

92.6

94.4

93.5

0-0

1-3

Buffalo

89.0

89.6

89.9

89.5

0-0

2-2

Kent St.

88.1

88.1

88.6

88.3

1-0

2-2

Miami (Ohio)

87.9

86.0

88.0

87.3

0-0

1-3

Akron

76.1

76.3

75.5

75.9

0-1

0-4

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

0-1

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

100.4

99.2

100.4

100.0

0-0

2-2

Northern Illinois

93.9

92.8

94.0

93.6

0-0

1-2

Toledo

91.9

92.3

92.7

92.3

0-0

2-1

Eastern Michigan

89.5

89.9

90.2

89.9

0-0

3-1

Ball St.

87.0

86.5

86.7

86.7

0-0

1-3

Central Michigan

81.1

81.9

81.4

81.4

1-0

2-2

MAC Averages

87.5

87.3

87.8

87.5

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.3

105.3

107.7

106.4

1-0

2-1

Boise St.

106.2

105.5

106.5

106.1

1-0

4-0

Air Force

97.8

99.0

98.7

98.5

0-1

2-1

Wyoming

95.2

97.2

95.6

96.0

0-0

3-1

New Mexico

82.0

85.1

81.0

82.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado St.

80.1

84.0

80.3

81.5

0-0

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.7

100.3

100.4

100.1

0-0

1-2

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.8

98.4

0-1

3-1

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

0-0

3-1

Nevada

90.8

92.6

90.4

91.3

0-0

3-1

U N L V

85.1

87.2

85.1

85.8

0-0

1-2

San Jose St.

85.3

87.3

84.6

85.7

0-0

2-1

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.6

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

1-0

3-1

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

0-1

3-1

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

0-1

3-1

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

1-0

4-0

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

0-2

1-3

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

0-0

1-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-1

3-1

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

2-0

3-1

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

0-1

3-1

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

1-0

3-1

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

1-0

1-3

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.7

126.0

128.3

127.3

1-0

4-0

Florida

121.4

118.5

120.8

120.2

2-0

4-0

Missouri

116.3

113.9

116.6

115.6

1-0

3-1

South Carolina

110.8

109.0

110.4

110.1

0-2

1-3

Kentucky

107.5

106.0

106.0

106.5

0-2

2-2

Tennessee

105.0

104.8

103.2

104.3

0-1

1-3

Vanderbilt

102.6

101.3

101.3

101.7

0-2

0-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

136.1

132.5

137.2

135.2

1-0

4-0

L S U

126.5

123.9

125.5

125.3

1-0

4-0

Auburn

119.2

117.4

118.8

118.5

1-0

4-0

Texas A&M

118.3

116.6

117.0

117.3

0-1

2-2

Mississippi St.

115.2

111.2

114.8

113.7

1-0

3-1

Ole Miss

102.0

101.1

101.1

101.4

1-0

2-2

Arkansas

95.5

96.4

94.7

95.6

0-1

2-2

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.0

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.3

103.7

104.8

104.6

0-0

3-0

Georgia Southern

96.6

95.9

96.0

96.2

0-0

1-2

Troy

95.8

96.1

94.9

95.6

0-0

2-1

Coastal Carolina

86.4

87.8

85.7

86.6

0-0

3-1

Georgia St.

85.8

87.1

84.9

85.9

0-1

2-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

98.7

98.9

98.5

98.7

0-0

3-1

Arkansas St.

91.0

91.1

90.7

90.9

0-0

2-2

Louisiana-Monroe

87.6

88.3

87.6

87.8

0-0

1-2

Texas St.

83.0

83.9

82.8

83.2

1-0

1-3

South Alabama

73.1

76.2

72.0

73.8

0-0

1-3

SBC Averages

90.3

90.9

89.8

90.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.8

2

BTen

110.6

3

B12

109.1

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.3

6

AAC

96.4

7

MWC

94.0

8

Ind

92.5

9

SUN

90.3

10

MAC

87.5

11

CUSA

86.7

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

UAB

5

Navy

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Eastern Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Utah St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Troy

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Nevada

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Buffalo

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

USC

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Houston

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Michigan]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Syracuse

Nebraska

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Kentucky

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

California

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

Auburn

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Colorado]

North Carolina St.

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Army]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

[Boston College]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Iowa

Florida

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Washington

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Mississippi St.

Michigan St.

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Miami (O)

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Purdue

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games This Week

 

 

Memphis vs. Navy: The winner of this game will have a leg up in the AAC West, and with Central Florida losing at Pitt, there is a possibility that the Western Division champion could win the Conference Championship Game and have a shot at the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.  Memphis has never been in a major bowl, although they had a team that should have gotten one in 1963, when the Tigers finished 9-0-1 and tied undefeated Ole Miss.  Navy has been in five major bowls, winning the Sugar Bowl in 1955 and the Orange Bowl in 1958, while losing the Cotton Bowl in 1963, when it was for a shot at the National Championship.

California vs. Arizona St.: Had Arizona State beaten Colorado Saturday, this would have been the top game of the day.  Cal is the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, and even if the Bears were to somehow run the table, they have little chance of making the Playoffs.  Still, this is a key game for the West Coast, as the more Cal continues to win, the better off for the Conference of Champions.

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan: The winner of this game definitely has a path to bowl eligibility.  If CMU wins this game, Jim McElwain will start getting some notice as a potential Power 5 School head coach, because the Chippewas were picked to finish in last place in the MAC West.

Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo: The Bulls didn’t just upset Temple Saturday; they pummeled the Owls into submission.  Miami should have done what Indiana did under Lee Corso many years ago–The Wacky Hoosiers’ coach called time out in 1976 just to take a team picture under the scoreboard when his team led the Buckeyes 7-6.  Miami led Ohio State 5-0 in the first quarter.  Corso’s Hoosiers lost their game 47-7.  Miami lost 76-5.  Still, the Redhawks have a shot at bowl eligibility, but they may have to uspet Buffalo to get there.  This is a perfect sandwich game for Buffalo, as they have Ohio U next week.

Florida St. vs. North Carolina St: Two weeks ago, Willie Taggart was sledding on thin ice at Florida State.  After a win over Louisville, the Seminoles are 2-2, and a win over NC State just might lead the Seminoles on a path to bowl eligibility.  Taggart has always had slow turnarounds.  He did so at Western Kentucky and at South Florida.  He was only at Oregon for a season, and this is just year two in Tallahassee.  If the fans and boosters give him a little more time, he will turn the FSU program back into a top tier program.  Dave Doeren has done a credible job in Raleigh with the Wolfpack, but this is looking like a slight down year for NC St.  The winner of this game will get to bowl eligibility.

Baylor vs. Iowa St.: The winner of this game remains a contender for one of the two Big 12 Championship Game spots.  Baylor has yet to play up to its potential to this point of the season.  They have the talent to win double-digit games this year, but they could lose the next two if they don’t bring their “A-game” to this week’s and next week’s games.  Iowa St. took their frustrations out on a Louisiana-Monroe team that isn’t as bad as the 72-20 loss indicates.  This game should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.  

Purdue vs. Minnesota: The winner of this game stays in contention for a bowl game.  If Minnesota wins on the road, then the Gophers will have a chance to start the season 8-0 before Penn State comes to Minneapolis.  Purdue must win this game, or the Boilermakers will not have a path to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana: Why do we call this a key game?  These two teams are stronger than you realize.  The Ragin’ Cajuns just trounced Ohio in Athens, while Georgia Southern is hiding in ambush at 1-2 with losses to undefeated Minnesota and unbelievable LSU.  The Eagles had an extra week to prepare for this game, while UL may be looking forward to their game with Appy State the following week.  The winner of this game will most definitely play a 13th game and maybe even a 14th game.

Utah vs. Washington St.: The loser of this game will have a two-game losing streak, after the two teams lost to the Los Angeles teams.  Utah’s loss at USC was surprising but not shocking.  If you didn’t stay up and watch the Washington State-UCLA game, you might not believe that Washington State scored 63 points.  Quarterback Anthony Gordon threw for 570 yards and nine touchdowns. However, it wasn’t good enough.  UCLA scored 67 points and came from 25 points down to pull off one of the most incredible upsets of the season.  The Bruins had scored 14 points in each of their first three games.  The winner of this game stays in contention for their division title, while the loser is looking at a December bowl.

Nevada vs. Hawaii: This game is for first place in the MAC West.  Hawaii usually plays much better at home than on the road, and playing in Reno gives Nevada a larger than normal home field advantage.  Nevada still has road games with Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, and Fresno State.  This is a must win game for the Wolf Pack if they are to make it to the MAC Championship Game.  A Rainbow Warrior win in this game, and it could be lights out for the rest of the division.

Oklahoma St. vs. Kansas St.: Chris Klieman came to the Little Apple having won back to back FCS National Championships at North Dakota State.  He has a personal winning streak of 24 games.  Kansas State had the week off after winning at Mississippi State, and now they entertain the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough loss at Texas.  If KSU wins this game in Stillwater, they then play three consecutive home games against three top contenders.  If Okie St. wins, then they stay in contention for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Auburn vs. Mississippi St.: It’s hard to think about a division game with a potential New Years’s Day Bowl participant as a potential sandwich game, but Auburn faces the Bulldogs between road games against Texas A&M and Florida.  This is the perfect chance for Mississippi State to pull off a big upset.  Auburn may not have enough offensive firepower to exploit State’s vulnerabilities on defense.  Of course, the Tiger defensive line is strong enough to hold the Bullies to less than 17 points, and Auburn will score 20 or more in this game.

Nebraska vs. Ohio St.: The last time the Buckeyes came to Lincoln, Nebraska suffered one of its most devastating home losses ever, losing 56-14.  Last year in Columbus, Nebraska came very close to pulling off the big upset.  Can the Cornhuskers have a shot in this game?  Last year’s Ohio State team was struggling a little bit when Nebraska played at the Horseshoe.  The Ohio State offense should make this game look more like the 2017 game in Lincoln.

Washington vs. USC: If the Trojans can leave Seattle with a win this weekend, Clay Helton might be able to begin to think about renewing his satellite TV subscription at his SoCal home for 2020.  A loss might put UW two games behind Cal, which would almost eliminate the Huskies from the North Division title race.  So, this is a must-win game for UW.

Note: Some of you (several somes of you) have contacted us through our other site wanting to know more information about the “Sharps” that are friends of the PiRate Ratings.  In Friday’s post here, we gave out a 5-game money line parlay with +250 odds that we inferred based on information given to us by one of our friends in Nevada.

So, the parlay won in theory.  If you did not heed our warning and actually played this one, you too won big on Saturday.

Unfortunately, this will not be a recurring thing here.  We cannot reveal the information we receive from Vegas, because the Sharps playing these parlays also have a service where they charge for their advice.  The specific Sharp that gave us this pick has asked not to be identified, and we are fine with that.  After all, we do not condone actual betting of money on sporting events.  Whether this parlay won or not, we were guaranteed not to win or lose, since we did not play it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 31, 2017

Money Line Parlay Picks for August 31-September 4, 2017

If you have been following the PiRate Ratings for a few years, you will know that we have issued selections on games every year since this page was created. Over the course of many football seasons, our money line parlay selections have been the most popular feature we have published. There is good reason for this–they have been successful. Last year, our selections returned better than 8% on investment, which was so-so, but it was still a winning season, making it three successful seasons in a row.
Regular readers here may also remember that our money line parlay selections have tended to perform their best in October and November, so keep that in mind if you use our free advice as a wagering tool. You should know this (and if you are a regular you have read this many times in this feature–we NEVER wager on sports contests. This is strictly an exercise in mathematical fun, which makes it so much easier for us to publish these parlays.

The true opening week of the football season does not give us NFL regular season games, so we have a reduced amount of games available in our menu. Therefore, we are issuing just one parlay for this week.

This parlay gives us a calculated odd of +138, so for every $100 of imaginary bank account we invest, if this parlay wins we will receive $238 back ($138 + the $100 we invested). Of course if this play loses, then we lose the $100 of imaginary investment.
Without further adieu, here is our selection for Labor Day Weekend.

1. Money Line Parlay at +138
Ohio State over Indiana
Nebraska over Arkansas St.
North Carolina over California
Georgia over Appalachian St.
Alabama over Florida St.

If you are interested in knowing how we calculate the odds of our parlays, we use offshore books only in finding the best overall odds for the games we wish to play. Since we do not work for these sports books, we will not give them free advertising and name names. However, if you look at offshore money line odds online at any of numerous sites, it should not be that difficult to find one particular site with the most favorable odds. Most sites have a money line parlay calculator, and if not, you can find this at many different sites. Parlay odds can be figured by doing some math, but you can save a lot of time by using these calculators.

We always round down to the nearest whole dollar when calculating the payout odds of the parlays. In actuality, today’s parlay should return $238.46 for every $100 invested (or $138.46 profit) rather than $238.

March 12, 2017

Selection Sunday Ayem–March 12, 2017

Like Xmas Day For A Basketball Junkie

5:30 PM Eastern DAYLIGHT Time cannot come quickly enough.  Today is the day fans of 68 teams get to open their March Madness presents.  Most of the teams that will be dancing know they are in, be it with an automatic bid or a for sure at-large bid.  The Bubble has shrunk to just a few teams, and our Bracketology Gurus believe they have the 68 teams this morning before any games are played today.  Only the seeding may be altered by today’s games, but they agree in 100% unison that the teams we will list are the 68 teams that will continue to pursue their National Championship dreams.

THE FINAL BUBBLE

California

Illinois St.

Iowa

Kansas St.

Rhode Island

Syracuse

USC

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Xavier

Room at the Inn for six of these 10 teams, so which six make it, and which 4 are number one seeds in the NIT?

The six we have in are (alphabetically): Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Xavier.

The four that will need tissues to wipe their tears are: California, Illinois State, Iowa, and Syracuse

The one that the Gurus believe should be in over one that should be out is Illinois State rather than USC.  However, the Gurus are selecting based on how they predict the Selection Committee will select, and even through the rules state that teams are not chosen within a conference by conference basis, subconsciously the members will look and see that they cannot exclude both Cal and the Trojans.  USC’s win over SMU is the reason the men of Troy get in over the men of Berkeley.

 

There are six games left to be played, and the seed lines could change based on who wins, but the Committee does not change their final seedings within the last two hours, so the final scores of some of the games will be official after the final seeding has been done.  Thus, the AAC and Big Ten Championship Games will still be underway when the final seeds are completed.  Only the name of the Sun Belt Conference Champion will have to be added late, and the Committee can already put the first letter of that champion on the board–a “T” (Texas State or Troy).

 

Here is today’s schedule.

American Athletic Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 SMU 29-4 vs. 2 Cincinnati 29-4 3:15 PM ESPN
                 
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
4 Rhode Island 23-9 vs. 2 VCU 26-7 12:30 PM CBS
                 
Big Ten Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
8 Michigan 23-11 vs. 2 Wisconsin 25-8 3:00 PM CBS
                 
Ivy League Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Princeton 22-6 vs. 3 Yale 18-10 12:00 PM ESPN2
                 
Southeastern Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 Kentucky 28-5 vs. 3 Arkansas 25-8 1:00 PM ESPN
                 
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
4 Texas St. 20-12 vs. 6 Troy 21-14 2:00 PM ESPN2
                 
Selection Sunday
5:30 PM EDT on CBS
 
NCAA Tournament
First Four: March 14-15
                 
Second Round: March 16-17
                 
Third Round: March 18-19
                 
Sweet 16: March 23-24
                 
Elite Eight: March 25-26
                 
Final Four: April 1
                 
National Championship: April 3

The Bracketology Gurus Field of 68

  1. Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina
  2. Duke, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
  3. Baylor, Louisville, Florida St., UCLA
  4. West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
  5. Florida, Iowa St., Virginia, Purdue
  6. Wisconsin, SMU, Minnesota, Michigan
  7. Creighton, Arkansas, Saint Mary’s, Wichita St.
  8. Maryland, Miami (Fla.), VCU, Virginia Tech
  9. Northwestern, Oklahoma St., Dayton, Seton Hall
  10. Michigan St., South Carolina, Marquette, Providence
  11. Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Vanderbilt, USC, Wake Forest
  12. UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont, Rhode Island, Kansas St.
  13. Bucknell, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee St.
  14. Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Iona, Northern Kentucky
  15. Texas Southern, Kent State, Jacksonville St., North Dakota
  16. Texas St., UNC-Central, New Orleans, South Dakota St., UC-Davis, Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes: Marquette, Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier

Last Four In (Dayton Bound): USC vs. Wake Forest, Rhode Island vs. Kansas St.

First Four Out (#1 Seeds in NIT): California, Illinois St., Iowa, and Syracuse

 

Coming Next:  We go dark for 48 hours.  Tuesday morning, we will premier PiRate Bracketnomics for 2017 with a total primer on how we handle our bracket picking and outright winners of games for you that failed to heed our warnings and chose to wager your hard-earned dollars in Vegas or offshore.  FWIW, we have heard from a half-dozen of you that you have found something in our Blue Ratings that have made you handsome profits this year.  We hope that continues for you, but please do not rely on just our ratings to wager money with books in Vegas.  We don’t want the guilt trip when you cannot pay your April Mortgage or car payment.

In addition to Bracketnomics, we will also give you all the raw data to use for yourself.  We will have a spreadsheet of all 68 teams with their Four Factors, their PiRate Specific Ratings, and then follow that up with how the teams fit in our Final Four footprint.  We have backtested the data we use as far back as each statistic allows us to do, and we will include that in our preview.

Tell all your friends to check us out.  The Tuesday preview is our most visited entry of the year, even more than our Super Bowl and College Playoff National Championship football editions.

 

But remember our axiom: We are just a bunch of math nerds doing this for fun.  Please wager responsibly, or like us just wager a lunch with your friend.  Also, remember that you have a better chance of being abducted by aliens from space while being struck by lightning, as you hold the winning Power Ball and Mega Millions lottery tickets while getting a kiss from a supermodel (all at the same time) than you do of picking a perfect bracket.

Note: Special Congrats go to Renato Nunez on his impressive home run at Hohokam Park yesterday against the Rangers.

October 20, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 20-24, 2016

Not So Good

Last weekend was not a great one for the parlay-pickers at PiRate Headquarters.  We selected four longshot parlays and returned one winner at +192, as upsets by Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt prevented a potential major windfall.

For the season, this drops our mediocre results to just plain not-so-good.  As usual, our solace is that we are not out a penny, because we never actually invest real currency (or whatever you call those green notes in your wallet).

We’re not all that enthused with this week’s schedule either.  It took an extra afternoon to come up with four picks, and we included two underdogs to win outright in our four plays.  Good luck with that.

It may be a better weekend to hike in the forest with all the changing colors on the trees.

1. College Parlay @ +209
California over Oregon
North Carolina over Virginia
West Virginia over TCU
 
2.College Parlay @ +234
Colorado over Stanford
Oklahoma over Texas Tech
Alabama over Texas A&M
Tulsa over Tulane
 
3. College Singleton @ +275
Arizona St. over Washington St.
 
4. NFL Parlay @ +208
Green Bay over Chicago
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Atlanta over San Diego
Denver over Houston

August 24, 2016

College Football Preview–August 26, 2016

The College Football season kicks off a week earlier than normal this year thanks to the California Golden Bears playing the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.  The chosen venue is the former site of the 2000 Summer Olympic Games, but in our opinion, this game would have been better placed in the Sydney Cricket Grounds, where the current Australian Football League Sydney Swans play.  48,000 seats are more than enough for these two teams, and ANZ Stadium holds around 80K.  Past games in Australia have drawn fewer than 20,000 fans.

 

Here are the initial PiRate Retrodictive Rankings For 2016.  Retrodictive refers to how teams have done so far to date, trying to rate the teams in order of who they have beaten and who has beaten them; they are not able to be used to predict the future, like our regular Predictive Ratings, which follow below.  Obviously, with no games played to date, these rankings are not yet Retrodictive.  Rather than re-list last year’s final Retrodictive Rankings, we have applied the updates to the 128 teams’ regular ratings to last year’s final rankings.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Oklahoma
2 LSU
3 Florida St.
4 Alabama
5 Tennessee
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Michigan
9 USC
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Ole Miss
12 Stanford
13 Louisville
14 Washington
15 TCU
16 Oregon
17 Georgia
18 Notre Dame
19 North Carolina
20 Florida
21 Arkansas
22 Auburn
23 Pittsburgh
24 Iowa
25 Miami (Fla)
26 UCLA
27 Texas
28 Texas A&M
29 Michigan St.
30 Mississippi St.
31 Washington St.
32 Wisconsin
33 Baylor
34 West Virginia
35 Nebraska
36 Utah
37 Penn St.
38 Virginia Tech
39 Arizona St.
40 Houston
41 BYU
42 North Carolina St.
43 Arizona
44 Georgia Tech
45 Boise St.
46 Northwestern
47 South Florida
48 Kansas St.
49 San Diego St.
50 Boston College
51 Texas Tech
52 Cincinnati
53 Minnesota
54 Virginia
55 Missouri
56 Indiana
57 Western Michigan
58 Temple
59 Vanderbilt
60 Syracuse
61 Kentucky
62 Air Force
63 Navy
64 California
65 Colorado
66 Toledo
67 Wake Forest
68 South Carolina
69 Appalachian St.
70 Illinois
71 Iowa St.
72 Central Michigan
73 Memphis
74 Western Kentucky
75 Duke
76 Northern Illinois
77 Connecticut
78 Georgia Southern
79 Purdue
80 Maryland
81 Utah St.
82 Tulsa
83 Rutgers
84 Marshall
85 Bowling Green
86 Oregon St.
87 Arkansas St.
88 MTSU
89 Nevada
90 Southern Miss.
91 Louisiana Tech
92 East Carolina
93 Ohio
94 San Jose St.
95 SMU
96 Colorado St.
97 New Mexico
98 Army
99 Rice
100 Akron
101 Kansas
102 UNLV
103 Central Florida
104 Troy
105 Florida Atlantic
106 Florida Int’l.
107 Buffalo
108 Fresno St.
109 Ball St.
110 Old Dominion
111 Georgia St.
112 Tulane
113 Kent St.
114 UL-Lafayette
115 Wyoming
116 Miami (O)
117 Idaho
118 South Alabama
119 Massachusetts
120 UTEP
121 Hawaii
122 UTSA
123 Eastern Michigan
124 Charlotte
125 New Mexico St.
126 North Texas
127 UL-Monroe
128 Texas St.

Here are the regular PiRate Ratings for the opening week of the season.  In some cases, these ratings differ slightly from the ratings given during the conference previews of the last 10 days, the reason being that players have quit, been injured, or transferred since the data was first compiled.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Tennessee 127.7 121.8 128.4 126.0
2 LSU 127.6 121.1 126.8 125.2
3 Oklahoma 125.6 122.1 125.6 124.4
4 Alabama 126.5 119.0 125.0 123.5
5 Clemson 126.8 116.4 125.7 123.0
6 Florida St. 122.9 115.4 121.9 120.1
7 Michigan 120.0 118.0 120.4 119.5
8 Mississippi St. 120.1 115.9 119.7 118.6
9 Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
10 Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.8 117.5 117.9
11 USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
12 Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
13 Louisville 118.6 111.8 118.0 116.1
14 Texas 114.4 118.0 114.4 115.6
15 Pittsburgh 117.1 111.7 116.4 115.1
16 North Carolina 117.4 109.2 117.1 114.6
17 Auburn 114.5 113.8 113.9 114.1
18 TCU 113.3 115.6 113.2 114.0
19 Notre Dame 116.2 111.0 114.8 114.0
20 Florida 113.5 116.8 111.1 113.8
21 Arkansas 116.4 110.3 114.2 113.7
22 Miami 116.6 108.0 115.9 113.5
23 Ohio St. 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.4
24 Iowa 114.6 110.9 114.2 113.2
25 Georgia 112.5 114.0 112.1 112.9
26 Michigan St. 113.1 112.4 111.1 112.2
27 Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
28 Texas A&M 112.1 111.4 112.0 111.8
29 Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
30 Ole Miss 113.6 107.4 112.1 111.0
31 Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
32 UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
33 Houston 110.1 108.3 111.9 110.1
34 Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
35 Penn St. 109.5 111.3 108.0 109.6
36 Nebraska 110.4 105.9 110.5 108.9
37 Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
38 Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
39 Wisconsin 109.1 105.9 109.5 108.2
40 BYU 110.6 102.9 110.3 107.9
41 South Florida 108.3 105.7 109.5 107.8
42 Northwestern 109.7 103.5 108.1 107.1
43 North Carolina St. 108.0 104.7 107.6 106.8
44 Georgia Tech 108.1 104.2 107.4 106.6
45 West Virginia 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.2
46 Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
47 Boise St. 104.4 105.7 106.3 105.5
48 Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
49 San Diego St. 104.9 102.2 108.2 105.1
50 Boston College 105.1 103.6 104.9 104.5
51 Kansas St. 103.1 107.5 102.5 104.4
52 Vanderbilt 106.9 100.7 105.1 104.3
53 Minnesota 104.8 102.8 104.7 104.1
54 Texas Tech 104.9 102.3 102.7 103.3
55 Virginia 104.4 101.2 103.8 103.1
56 Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
57 Indiana 101.5 106.0 100.9 102.8
58 Missouri 103.0 101.8 102.5 102.5
59 Western Michigan 102.0 100.9 103.9 102.3
60 Cincinnati 101.5 102.7 102.5 102.3
61 Temple 102.2 101.2 103.1 102.2
62 Maryland 100.9 104.2 98.1 101.1
63 Wake Forest 102.3 99.2 101.5 101.0
64 Tulsa 99.7 102.2 100.4 100.8
65 Kentucky 100.4 102.3 99.2 100.6
66 Toledo 101.0 98.9 101.8 100.6
67 Memphis 102.7 97.8 100.8 100.5
68 Central Michigan 98.9 101.9 99.9 100.2
69 Air Force 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1
70 California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
71 Duke 99.4 100.7 98.0 99.4
72 Iowa St. 99.8 99.2 98.7 99.2
73 Illinois 100.6 97.2 99.8 99.2
74 Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
75 South Carolina 99.0 99.3 98.1 98.8
76 Northern Illinois 97.3 98.9 98.4 98.2
77 Purdue 99.4 96.6 98.3 98.1
78 Connecticut 98.3 96.1 98.6 97.7
79 Western Kentucky 99.3 93.3 100.0 97.5
80 Rutgers 99.0 96.2 97.3 97.5
81 Bowling Green 96.7 94.7 97.3 96.2
82 Appalachian St. 95.5 95.7 97.1 96.1
83 New Mexico 94.3 97.6 95.6 95.9
84 Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
85 Marshall 92.5 96.9 94.3 94.6
86 Utah St. 93.2 97.1 93.0 94.4
87 Nevada 92.3 95.6 93.6 93.9
88 Arkansas St. 91.9 94.2 94.4 93.5
89 Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
90 SMU 93.7 92.1 93.2 93.0
91 Southern Mississippi 92.7 92.1 93.8 92.9
92 East Carolina 91.6 94.6 91.7 92.6
93 Middle Tennessee 91.2 93.8 92.3 92.4
94 Ohio 88.7 98.2 90.1 92.4
95 San Jose St. 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
96 UNLV 89.0 93.6 89.1 90.6
97 Kansas 88.3 96.1 85.9 90.1
98 Colorado St. 88.2 90.6 89.0 89.3
99 Army 84.2 93.2 86.6 88.0
100 Rice 84.7 94.1 85.1 88.0
101 Akron 84.8 92.6 86.5 88.0
102 Old Dominion 85.8 89.2 86.4 87.1
103 Central Florida 85.9 88.6 85.9 86.8
104 Florida Atlantic 84.9 88.6 86.8 86.8
105 Louisiana Tech 85.4 88.6 86.0 86.7
106 Troy 83.6 90.2 85.2 86.4
107 Florida International 82.4 89.6 84.3 85.4
108 Buffalo 80.8 90.1 82.2 84.4
109 Ball St. 83.6 85.6 83.8 84.3
110 Georgia St. 81.7 87.1 83.9 84.2
111 Fresno St. 82.1 87.1 81.9 83.7
112 Tulane 82.2 86.1 82.0 83.4
113 Miami (O) 82.2 84.0 82.9 83.0
114 Kent St. 82.3 84.5 82.2 83.0
115 Wyoming 82.5 82.5 82.6 82.6
116 UTSA 78.4 87.1 80.9 82.2
117 Idaho 78.1 85.2 79.7 81.0
118 UL-Lafayette 76.3 86.8 78.7 80.6
119 Eastern Michigan 78.1 83.6 79.5 80.4
120 South Alabama 75.3 85.2 76.2 78.9
121 Massachusetts 75.0 84.5 76.2 78.6
122 UTEP 74.5 79.5 75.8 76.6
123 Hawaii 77.0 76.5 75.7 76.4
124 Charlotte 73.0 81.1 74.6 76.2
125 New Mexico St. 73.7 76.5 74.9 75.0
126 North Texas 74.0 76.6 73.7 74.8
127 UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8
128 Texas St. 68.8 69.5 69.5 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 108.3 105.7 109.5 107.8
Cincinnati 101.5 102.7 102.5 102.3
Temple 102.2 101.2 103.1 102.2
Connecticut 98.3 96.1 98.6 97.7
East Carolina 91.6 94.6 91.7 92.6
Central Florida 85.9 88.6 85.9 86.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.1 108.3 111.9 110.1
Tulsa 99.7 102.2 100.4 100.8
Memphis 102.7 97.8 100.8 100.5
Navy 99.2 99.0 98.6 99.0
SMU 93.7 92.1 93.2 93.0
Tulane 82.2 86.1 82.0 83.4
         
AAC Averages 98.0 97.9 98.2 98.0
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 126.8 116.4 125.7 123.0
Florida St. 122.9 115.4 121.9 120.1
Louisville 118.6 111.8 118.0 116.1
North Carolina St. 108.0 104.7 107.6 106.8
Boston College 105.1 103.6 104.9 104.5
Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
Wake Forest 102.3 99.2 101.5 101.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Pittsburgh 117.1 111.7 116.4 115.1
North Carolina 117.4 109.2 117.1 114.6
Miami 116.6 108.0 115.9 113.5
Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
Georgia Tech 108.1 104.2 107.4 106.6
Virginia 104.4 101.2 103.8 103.1
Duke 99.4 100.7 98.0 99.4
         
ACC Averages 111.6 107.0 110.9 109.9
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 125.6 122.1 125.6 124.4
Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.8 117.5 117.9
Texas 114.4 118.0 114.4 115.6
TCU 113.3 115.6 113.2 114.0
Baylor 109.4 109.7 110.6 109.9
West Virginia 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.2
Kansas St. 103.1 107.5 102.5 104.4
Texas Tech 104.9 102.3 102.7 103.3
Iowa St. 99.8 99.2 98.7 99.2
Kansas 88.3 96.1 85.9 90.1
         
Big 12 Averages 108.3 109.6 107.7 108.5
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 120.0 118.0 120.4 119.5
Ohio St. 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.4
Michigan St. 113.1 112.4 111.1 112.2
Penn St. 109.5 111.3 108.0 109.6
Indiana 101.5 106.0 100.9 102.8
Maryland 100.9 104.2 98.1 101.1
Rutgers 99.0 96.2 97.3 97.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 114.6 110.9 114.2 113.2
Nebraska 110.4 105.9 110.5 108.9
Wisconsin 109.1 105.9 109.5 108.2
Northwestern 109.7 103.5 108.1 107.1
Minnesota 104.8 102.8 104.7 104.1
Illinois 100.6 97.2 99.8 99.2
Purdue 99.4 96.6 98.3 98.1
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.0 106.7 106.8
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 99.3 93.3 100.0 97.5
Marshall 92.5 96.9 94.3 94.6
Middle Tennessee 91.2 93.8 92.3 92.4
Old Dominion 85.8 89.2 86.4 87.1
Florida Atlantic 84.9 88.6 86.8 86.8
Florida International 82.4 89.6 84.3 85.4
Charlotte 73.0 81.1 74.6 76.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 92.7 92.1 93.8 92.9
Rice 84.7 94.1 85.1 88.0
Louisiana Tech 85.4 88.6 86.0 86.7
UTSA 78.4 87.1 80.9 82.2
UTEP 74.5 79.5 75.8 76.6
North Texas 74.0 76.6 73.7 74.8
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 88.5 85.7 86.2
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 116.2 111.0 114.8 114.0
BYU 110.6 102.9 110.3 107.9
Army 84.2 93.2 86.6 88.0
Massachusetts 75.0 84.5 76.2 78.6
         
Independents Averages 96.5 97.9 97.0 97.1
 
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 96.7 94.7 97.3 96.2
Ohio 88.7 98.2 90.1 92.4
Akron 84.8 92.6 86.5 88.0
Buffalo 80.8 90.1 82.2 84.4
Miami (O) 82.2 84.0 82.9 83.0
Kent St. 82.3 84.5 82.2 83.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.0 100.9 103.9 102.3
Toledo 101.0 98.9 101.8 100.6
Central Michigan 98.9 101.9 99.9 100.2
Northern Illinois 97.3 98.9 98.4 98.2
Ball St. 83.6 85.6 83.8 84.3
Eastern Michigan 78.1 83.6 79.5 80.4
         
MAC Averages 89.7 92.8 90.7 91.1
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.4 105.7 106.3 105.5
Air Force 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1
New Mexico 94.3 97.6 95.6 95.9
Utah St. 93.2 97.1 93.0 94.4
Colorado St. 88.2 90.6 89.0 89.3
Wyoming 82.5 82.5 82.6 82.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 104.9 102.2 108.2 105.1
Nevada 92.3 95.6 93.6 93.9
San Jose St. 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
UNLV 89.0 93.6 89.1 90.6
Fresno St. 82.1 87.1 81.9 83.7
Hawaii 77.0 76.5 75.7 76.4
         
MWC Averages 91.6 93.4 92.3 92.4
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 127.7 121.8 128.4 126.0
Florida 113.5 116.8 111.1 113.8
Georgia 112.5 114.0 112.1 112.9
Vanderbilt 106.9 100.7 105.1 104.3
Missouri 103.0 101.8 102.5 102.5
Kentucky 100.4 102.3 99.2 100.6
South Carolina 99.0 99.3 98.1 98.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
LSU 127.6 121.1 126.8 125.2
Alabama 126.5 119.0 125.0 123.5
Mississippi St. 120.1 115.9 119.7 118.6
Auburn 114.5 113.8 113.9 114.1
Arkansas 116.4 110.3 114.2 113.7
Texas A&M 112.1 111.4 112.0 111.8
Ole Miss 113.6 107.4 112.1 111.0
         
SEC Averages 113.9 111.1 112.9 112.6
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 95.5 95.7 97.1 96.1
Arkansas St. 91.9 94.2 94.4 93.5
Georgia Southern 93.0 91.7 95.5 93.4
Troy 83.6 90.2 85.2 86.4
Georgia St. 81.7 87.1 83.9 84.2
Idaho 78.1 85.2 79.7 81.0
UL-Lafayette 76.3 86.8 78.7 80.6
South Alabama 75.3 85.2 76.2 78.9
New Mexico St. 73.7 76.5 74.9 75.0
UL-Monroe 67.9 73.3 68.3 69.8
Texas St. 68.8 69.5 69.5 69.3
         
Sun Belt Averages 80.5 85.1 82.1 82.6

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Southeastern 113.9 111.1 112.9 112.6
2 Atlantic Coast 111.6 107.0 110.9 109.9
3 Pac-12 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1
4 Big 12 108.3 109.6 107.7 108.5
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.1 106.7 106.8
6 American 98.0 97.9 98.2 98.0
7 Independents 96.5 97.9 97.0 97.1
8 Mountain West 91.6 93.4 92.3 92.4
9 Mid-American 89.7 92.9 90.7 91.1
10 Conference USA 84.5 88.5 85.7 86.3
11 Sunbelt 80.5 85.1 82.1 82.6

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For August 26, 2016

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Hawaii California -27.6 -16.8 -25.2

Bowl Projections

We erred when issuing bowl projections in our conference previews, completely forgetting that the current Rose Bowl tie-in calls for the Pac-12 and Big Ten to supply the highest rated teams not in the playoffs, rather than using the old BCS formula rules.

 

Therefore, we have moved Ohio State into the Rose Bowl in lieu of Alabama, which in turn caused us to rearrange several other bowls once Alabama was moved to an SEC only bowl.

 

We are sorry for the error.  Here are the updated Bowl Projections.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. Boise St.
Cure AAC SBC [Army] vs. Troy
Camellia MAC SBC North. Illinois vs. Ga. Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC W. Kentucky vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC Tulsa vs. West. Michigan
Boca Raton AAC CUSA [Cent. Michigan] vs. Southern Miss.
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Bowling Green vs. UNLV
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Memphis vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. [Arizona]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Appalachian St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Marshall vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Houston vs. [Colorado]
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Boston College vs. Wisconsin
Independence SEC ACC/ND [UL-Lafayette] vs. Georgia Tech
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Indiana vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC N. Carolina St. vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Maryland] vs. Utah
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Virginia Tech vs. Northwestern
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Louisville vs. TCU
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Washington St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati vs. Texas A&M
Belk ACC/ND SEC Miami (Fla) vs. Florida
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Ole Miss
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. UCLA
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Utah St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Auburn
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Florida St. vs. Notre Dame
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Iowa vs. Alabama
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC North Carolina vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Tennessee vs. Stanford
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Michigan vs. Oklahoma
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Georgia
Cotton At-Large At-Large Clemson vs. South Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Washington vs. Ohio St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas vs. LSU
Nat’l Championship Semifinal Winners Tennessee vs. Michigan

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections because the contracted conference will not have a bowl eligible team able to fill the slot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 22, 2016

2016 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:45 am

The Pac-12 was the odd league out last season in the NCAA Playoffs, as league champion Stanford saw their chances to earn a bid end before they started last year. An opening week loss at Northwestern in which the Cardinal could not run the ball and could not average even 4.5 yards per pass attempt. After that game, Stanford averaged more than 40 points per game the rest of the season and almost 10 yards per pass attempt. It culminated with a blowout win over Iowa in the Rose Bowl.

This season, Stanford begins the year as our choice to be the fourth seed in the 2017 FBS Playoffs, but their path to the conference championship is cluttered by nine additional teams fully capable of beating anybody else in this league. The Pac-12 will be as competitive as it has ever been, and the PiRate believe that 10 teams will earn bowl elibility this season, including the entire South Division. Yes, even Colorado is improved enough to go 6-6 and earn its first bowl bid in nine years.

The North Division has the two bottom-feeding teams to begin the 2016 season. California must start over with a major rebuild after losing top draft selection Jared Goff and the top six pass receivers on offense and their top three defensive stars. The Golden Bears and Oregon State, which has returned to their familiar position of the 1970’s, 80’s, and 90’s, will fight it out in Corvallis in early October to see which team will avoid a possible 0-9 conference record.

The other four teams in the North Division will make for an excellent race this year. Stanford is the favorite to begin the season, but the Cardinal are not a shoo-in to win their division, much less the overall league championship. A new quarterback must be found to replace Kevin Hogan, but Coach David Shaw has a happy decision to make in replacing him. Both Keller Chryst and Ryan Burns are highly talented and able to put up better overall stats than Hogan.

Of course, whoever wins the starting job, or even if it becomes a platoon, the number one job for the QBs will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey 25 times a game and getting out of the way. McCaffrey begins the season as one of two top candidates for the Heisman Trophy (Clemson’s DeShaun Watson being the other). McCaffrey led the Cardinal with more than 2,000 rushing yards in 2015, and he also led the team in receptions and receiving yards. A reloaded offensive line should allow SU to stay consistently strong all year, and hopefully for fans on The Farm, the team will not lay an egg in September, when most of the difficult games will be played.

Washington is the sexy pick of many pundits to win the North this year, as the Huskies return a lot of talent from a 7-6 team, including two capable quarterbacks and a running back that scored 14 rushing touchdowns and who will be running behind an experienced and talented offensive line.

The Huskies have a chance to be 4-0 when they face Stanford on Friday night, September 30, but they could also be 0-1 in the league and looking at elimination with a loss to SU.

Oregon missed Marcus Mariota enough to lose four games for the first time since 2007. The Ducks look to be in the same boat again this year, lacking enough offensive consistency to win games 52-42 every week, while having a defense that could give up 40 points per game in conference play. Adding a road game in Lincoln against Nebraska plus facing USC and Utah on the road from the other division means the Ducks are likely to lose four games again this year.

The Pirate worked his magic again last year. Coach Mike Leach guided Washington State to its first nine-win season in a dozen years. The Cougars shaved 11 points per game off their 2014 defensive average, while continuing to pass the ball better than any other team in the land. Luke Falk completed nearly 70% of his passes in his first year as a starter in Pullman with a TD/INT ratio of 38 to 8. Most of Falk’s receivers are back, and the pass blockers are talented enough to allow Falk time to find them. The WSU offense should be even better this year, and after averaging around 31 points per game for three years running, this team should top 35 per game this season. Keep an eye on this team: they could be the dark horse to challenge Stanford.

There is no clear-cut favorite in the South Division, and it would not be at all surprising if multiple teams finished tied for first at 6-3 or even 5-4. Home field advantages in Boulder, Salt Lake City, Tempe, Tucson, and Los Angeles are enough to turn underdogs into favorites, and no team in this division has the talent to be a prohibitive favorite over another team.

Somebody has to win a trip to the Conference Championship Game, and our choice from among the six fairly equal teams is USC. The Trojans must replace Cody Kessler at QB, but their offense is deep and talented, albeit not dominating everywhere else. Max Browne is the new starting quarterback. He has played sparingly in two seasons, but the former top QB in the 2012 class has a rifle arm and can throw the ball 50-60 yards with ease.

The Trojan defense will be suspect at the start of the season, especially up front where there will be an entirely new starting defensive line and two new linebackers. If any type of pass rush can be generated, the secondary could lead the league in interceptions, as the Trojans are loaded in the back of the defense.

UCLA has the missing the experienced quarterback in Josh Rosen, but the Bruins have a lot of holes to plug everywhere else on the offense. The Bruins lost their star running back and top two receivers, as well as three star offensive linemen. Rosen might be running for his life a bit too much for the Bruin offense to excel this year.

Defensively, The Sons of Westwood could lead the division in fewest points and yard allowed. 15 of the top 17 tacklers from 2015 are back including the entire front four and six of the front seven.

Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado could play each other 100 times each and all win 50 times. There is very little separating these four teams, as each has its own strengths and exploitable weaknesses. Home field advantage should allow the quartet to pick up key conference wins in their paths to bowl eligibility. Other than Colorado’s September 17 game at Michigan, these teams should win all their remaining non-conference games this year. Hosting Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, and Utah should give the Buffaloes a 50-50 chance at finding four additional wins after securing two against Colorado State and Idaho, so CU has a fighting chance to give 4th year coach Mike MacIntyre his first bowl team in Boulder.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media predicted the standings.

Pac-12 North Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Stanford 24 186 20
2 Washington 8 163 4
3 Oregon 1 132  
4 Washington St. 0 112  
5 California 0 67  
6 Oregon St. 0 33  
         
Pac-12 South Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 UCLA 19 180 3
2 USC 12 173 5
3 Utah 2 127 1
4 Arizona 0 87  
5 Arizona St. 0 85  
6 Colorado 0 63  

Here is how the PiRate Ratings show the league at the start of the season.

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.3 112.8 120.4 118.2
Washington 119.4 110.4 119.1 116.3
Oregon 112.8 111.8 111.7 112.1
Washington St. 112.3 107.6 112.0 110.7
California 104.7 93.3 101.0 99.7
Oregon St. 97.8 93.0 95.0 95.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 119.7 114.3 118.0 117.3
UCLA 110.9 110.2 110.3 110.5
Arizona St. 108.7 109.2 107.7 108.6
Utah 111.4 105.3 108.9 108.5
Arizona 107.2 105.2 106.1 106.2
Colorado 107.0 102.1 107.0 105.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 111.1 106.3 109.8 109.1

 

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.

Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

Pac-12 Conference Projected Standings
North Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Stanford 8-1 12-1 * Playoffs–Peach
Washington 7-2 10-2 Rose
Oregon 6-3 8-4 Holiday
Washington St. 5-4 8-4 Foster Farms
California 1-8 2-10  
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11  
       
South Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
USC 7-2 9-4 Alamo
UCLA 6-3 7-5 Sun
Arizona St. 4-5 7-5 Las Vegas
Colorado 4-5 6-6 [St. Petersburg] *
Arizona 3-6 6-6 [Armed Forces] *
Utah 3-6 6-6 Cactus
       
* Colorado’s and Arizona’s bowl bids are at-large invitations

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Atlantic Coast Conference was once the weakest of the Power 5 leagues and arguably only on par with the old Big East Conference.  Now, the ACC is number two for the first time ever.

February 29, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite–February 29, 2016

The finish line is in sight.  Championship Week I is here.  Conference tournament action tips off Tuesday night and by Friday night, 10 Conference Tournaments will be underway.

Let’s take a look at our weekly Bracketology composite first.  At this point in the season, we have shrunk “The Bubble” down to just the last 12 teams in and the first four teams out.  Once teams start pulling off upsets in conference tournament action, there will be fewer spots here as we must pop a Bubble for each automatic bid awarded to a team not currently under consideration.

This does not apply to the low and mid-major conferences other than maybe the Missouri Valley Conference and maybe the West Coast Conference.  If a team pulls off a monumental upset in, say, the Big Sky Conference Tournament, such as Idaho State upsetting Weber State, there will still be just one Big Sky team in the Dance.  However, if Mississippi State were to win the SEC Tournament, the Bulldogs would pop a bubble for some other major conference team, like Butler.

The 32 Bracket Einstein’s see it this way this week:

Seed Team Auto. Bid
1 Virginia ACC
1 Kansas Big 12
1 Villanova Big East
1 Xavier at-large
2 Michigan St. Big Ten
2 Oklahoma at-large
2 North Carolina at-large
2 Miami (Fla.) at-large
3 Oregon Pac-12
3 West Virginia at-large
3 Utah at-large
3 Maryland at-large
4 Duke at-large
4 Kentucky SEC
4 Iowa at-large
4 Indiana at-large
5 Iowa St. at-large
5 Texas at-large
5 Purdue at-large
5 Texas A&M at-large
6 California at-large
6 Baylor at-large
6 Wisconsin at-large
6 Arizona at-large
7 Seton Hall at-large
7 St. Joseph’s Atlantic 10
7 Notre Dame at-large
7 Dayton at-large
8 Texas Tech at-large
8 Colorado at-large
8 Pittsburgh at-large
8 Wichita St. MVC
9 South Carolina at-large
9 Providence at-large
9 Vanderbilt at-large
9 Cincinnati American
10 Oregon St. at-large
10 Syracuse at-large
10 Connecticut at-large
10 St. Mary’s WCC
11 USC at-large
11 VCU at-large
11 Valparaiso Horizon
11 UALR SunBelt
12 Michigan at-large
12 Florida at-large
12 Temple at-large
12 Butler at-large
12 San Diego St. MWC
12 Monmouth MAAC
13 Akron MAC
13 Hofstra Colonial
13 Yale Ivy
13 Chattanooga Southern
14 Stony Brook AmEast
14 Hawaii Big West
14 UAB CUSA
14 South Dakota St. Summit
15 Stephen F. Austin SLC
15 Belmont OVC
15 New Mexico St. WAC
15 Weber St. Big Sky
16 Winthrop Big South
16 North Florida A-Sun
16 Hampton MEAC
16 Wagner Northeast
16 Bucknell Patriot
16 Texas Southern SWAC
Last 4 Byes
VCU
USC
Connecticut
Syracuse
 
Last 4 In
Butler
Temple
Florida
Michigan
 
1st 4 Out
Alabama
Tulsa
St. Bonaventure
George Wash.

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning This Week

American East Conference Tournament
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
Quarterfinal Round
Wednesday, March 2
#8 UMBC (7-24) @ #1 Stony Brook (23-6)
#7 Hartford (9-22) @ #2 Albany (24-7)
#6 Maine (8-21) @ #3 Vermont (19-12)
#5 Binghamton (8-21) @ #4 New Hampshire (18-11)
Semifinal Round
Monday, March 7
Lowest Remaining Seed @ Highest Remaining Seed
2nd Lowest Remaining Seed @ 2nd Highest Remaining Seed
Championship
Saturday, March 12
11:00 AM EST on ESPN2

Albany has won four straight games and 9 of 10, but Vermont has won 5 games in a row, including a 14-point shocker at Stony Brook.

Albany went 14-0 at home and is guaranteed at least 2 home games if they keep winning.  Stony Brook went 12-1 at home.

Vermont has the best shooting team in the league, while Stony Brook has the best defense.

 

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
Quarterfinal Round
Tuesday, March 1
G1: #8 USC-Upstate (10-21) @ #1 North Florida (21-10)
G2: #5 Kennesaw St. (11-19) @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (17-13)
G3: #7 Stetson (10-21) @ #2 NJIT (17-13)
G4: #6 Lipscomb (11-20) @ #3 Jacksonville (16-15)
Semifinal Round
Thursday, March 3
G1 winner vs. G2 winner at higher seed
G3 winner vs. G4 winner at higher seed
Championship
Sunday, March 6
12:30 PM on ESPN2

North Florida won its final three games to earn the top seed.  The Ospreys own a 13-1 home record and have the best offense and shooting in the league by a large margin.

Jacksonville lost its last two games of the regular season when the Dolphins had a chance to earn the top seed.

Florida Gulf Coast and NJIT have the top defenses in the league, with FGCU being best against opponent shooting accuracy, and NJIT being the best at forcing turnovers.

Note: Stetson is ineligible for the postseason, but the Hatters will play in the conference tournament.  Should they win, then regular season champion North Florida will receive the automatic bid.

 

Big South Conference Tournament
Site: Buies Creek, NC (Campbell)
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Longwood (9-22) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20)
G2: #7 Radford (16-14) vs. #10 Presbyterian (10-19)
G3: #6 Gardner-Webb (15-15) vs. #11 Campbell (12-17)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G4: #1 High Poiint (20-9) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #4 UNC-Asheville (19-11) vs. #5 Liberty (13-18)
G6: #2 Winthrop (21-8) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #3 Coastal Carolina (18-10) vs. G3 Winner
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G4 Winner vs. G5 Winner
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
Championship
Sunday, March 6
2:30 PM on ESPN2

High Point ended the season on a 6-game winning streak, while Winthrop went 8-2 in their last 10 games.  Former league leader UNC-Asheville faltered down the stretch, finishing 2-3 to drop to fourth place.

High Point won games down the stretch by not committing turnovers, shooting intelligent shots, and forcing turnovers on their opposition.

Coastal Carolina was the clear-cut leader in total defense during the season, while Radford is the league’s top rebounding team with nobody challenging in this department.

 

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Site: Baltimore
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 Elon (16-15) vs. #9 Drexel (5-24)
G2: #7 Charleston (16-13) vs. #10 Delaware (7-22)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3: #1 Hofstra (22-8) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 James Madison (21-10) vs. #5 William & Mary (19-10)
G5: #2 UNC-Wilmington (22-7) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Towson (20-11) vs. #6 Northeastern (17-14)
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship
Monday, March 7
7:00 PM on NBC Sports Network

Hofstra could have been renamed Hotstra down the stretch, as they won their last six games to take the top seed in the conference tournament.  They have an incredible inside-outside tandem in guard Juan’ya Green (17.7 ppg, 7.2 apg) and forward Rokas Gustys (12.7 rebounds/game).

UNC-Wilmington won games by committing fewer turnovers than average and forcing a lot more turnovers than average and then capitalizing with fast break points.

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Site: Albany (Siena)
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Rider (12-19) vs. #9 Quinnipiac (9-20)
G2: #7 Canisius (13-18) vs. #10 Niagara (7-24)
G3: #6 Manhattan (12-17) vs. #11 Marist (7-22)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G4: #1 Monmouth (25-6) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #4 Saint Peter’s (14-15) vs. #5 Fairfield (18-12)
Saturday, March 5
G6: #2 Iona (19-10) vs. G2 Winner
G7: #3 Siena (20-11) vs. G3 Winner
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G4 Winner vs. G5 Winner
G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner
Championship Round
Monday, March 7
7:00 PM on ESPN

Monmouth is in that gray area, where if the Hawks lose in the Championship Round, they will have a legitimate case to make for an at-large bid thanks to a difficult non-conference schedule that included some impressive wins.  Monmouth hit a little blip earlier in the month, but they righted the ship with three closing victories.

Iona is the hot team entering tournament play.  The Gaels won their last five games, including one over Monmouth.

Siena is the host team, and the Saints went 12-2 at home this year.  However, the two losses came to Monmouth and Iona.

The top three seeds have some stars that you will want to watch and thus follow this tournament.  Monmouth has guard Justin Robinson, who scores better than 20 points per game and is like a Willie Mays of basketball.  He can drill the three, take it to the hoop, dish for lots of assists, pick your pockets clean, and then ice the game at the foul line.

Iona’s A.J. English tops Robinson in scoring at 22.3 per game and assists at 6.1 per game and is the league’s best NBA prospect.  Siena’s power forward Brett Bisping is dominant inside, where he averages 15.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Site: St. Louis
 
1st Round
Thursday, March 3
G1: #8 Loyola (Chi.) (14-16) vs. #9 Bradley (5-26)
G2: #7 MIssouri St. (12-18) vs. #10 Drake (7-23)
Quarterfinal Round
Friday, March 4
G3: #1 Wichita St. (23-7) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 Northern Iowa (19-12) vs. #5 Southern Illinois (22-9)
G5: #2 Evansville (23-8) vs. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Illinois St. (18-13) vs. #6 Indiana St. (14-16)
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship Game
Sunday, March 6
2:00 PM on CBS

Arch Madness promises to be exciting this year.  Don’t automatically give this tournament to Wichita State, although the Shockers are definitely the favorites.  They will face a very difficult semifinal match if Northern Iowa advances past the quarterfinal round against Southern Illinois.

In Wichita’s favor, they ended the season by winning their last five games and 18 of 20 after they were 100% healthy.  After being upset at home by UNI, the Shockers won their last five by an average of 26.4 points per game.  In Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, they have the best backcourt in all of mid-Major basketball and almost the equal of Kentucky’s fine duo.

Why is UNI a threat to this resume?  To start, they beat North Carolina and Iowa State earlier this year.  To continue, they finished the season winning nine of their final ten, including stopping Wichita’s multi-year home winning streak.  To conclude, the Panthers play patiently, don’t make many mistakes, do not foul much, and in late games, they are tough in the clutch, shooting close to 80% at the foul line.

Keep an eye on Evansville, as the Purple Aces shoot the ball better than any MVC team and are second to Wichita in field goal defense.  The Aces have their own dynamic duo in D.J. Balentine (20.7 ppg, 4.4 apg) and Egidijus Mockevicius (16.6 ppg, 14.0 reb, 2.8 blk).

Northeast Conference
Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds
 
Quarterfinal Round
Wednesday, March 2
G1: #8 Robert Morris (10-21) @ #1 Wagner (20-9)
G2: #5 Mount St. Mary’s (13-18) @ #4 St. Francis (Bklyn) (15-16)
G3: #7 St. Francis (Pa.) (13-16) @ #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (15-14)
G4: #6 Long Island (15-14) @ #3 Sacred Heart (12-17)
Semifinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G1 Winner vs. G2 Winner @ Higher Seed
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner @ Higher Seed
Championship
Tuesday, March 8
7:00 PM on ESPN or ESPN2

This league probably will send its champion to Dayton for a First Four game as a 16-seed waiting to take on a Virginia, Kansas, or Villanova if they win in Dayton.

Wagner finished 8-2 to run away with the regular season championship, as multiple teams could not hold onto close leads in key games.  In league play, the Seahawks forced opponents into bad shots and then controlled the boards to limit them to one shot on most possessions.

St. Francis of Brooklyn is the other hot team entering the tournament, coming in with a four-game streak.  The Terriers are the second best defensive team in the league, but they lack offensive stars.

Sacred Heart has the dominant offensive player in the league.  Cane Broome leads the loop with a 23-point average.

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Site: Nashville
 
1st Round
Wednesday, March 2
G1: #5 Tennessee Tech (19-10) vs. #8 Austin Peay (14-17)
G2: #6 Murray St. (16-13) vs. #7 Eastern Illinois (13-16)
Quarterfinal Round
Thursday, March 3
G3: #4 Tennessee St. (20-9) vs. G1 Winner
G4: #3 Morehead St. (18-11) G2 Winner
Semifinal Round
Friday, March 4
G5: #1 Belmont (20-10) vs. G3 Winner
G6: #2 UT-Martin (18-13) vs. G4 Winner
Championship
Saturday, March 5
6:00 PM on ESPN2

The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals, and that could be just what Belmont needs the most.  The Bruins limped home to a 4-4 finish to just barely escape with the regular season title, but they look more like the third or fourth best team in the tournament today.

Look out for Morehead State.  We began isolating on the Eagles a few weeks ago, when Coach Sean Woods had this team looking somewhat like the Kentucky teams he played on when he was in college.  Morehead State won their final six games, and more impressively half of those wins came against Belmont, Tennessee State, and on the road at Tennessee Tech, where the Golden Eagles lost just that one time.

In tournament play, a team that can consistently shut an opponent down for four or five minute stretches and enjoy scoring runs, is going to advance, and the Eagles get to start as the #3 seed.  Their road to the championship avoids both Tennessee State and Belmont until the finals, and they get a weaker #2 seed in UT-Martin, who won the West Division with a weaker conference record than the Eagles, who played in the much tougher East Division.

Tennessee State is the other hot team entering conference tournament play.  The Tigers pasted Belmont yesterday and will have to beat the Bruins again in the semifinals to get to the Championship Game.

Tennessee Tech is a monster at home and mouse on the road.  The Golden Eagles will have to win 4 times in 4 days to get to the Dance, and we do not see it possible.

 

Southern Conference
Site: Asheville, NC
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 or 9 Samford (13-18) vs. #9 or 8 VMI (9-19) *
G2: #7 Mercer (18-13) vs. #10 Citadel (10-21)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G3: #1 Chattanooga (25-5) * vs. G1 Winner
G4: #4 Wofford (15-16) vs. #5 Western Carolina (15-16)
G5: #2 East Tennessee (21-10) VS. G2 Winner
G6: #3 Furman (17-14) vs. #6 UNC-Greensboro (14-17)
Semifinal Round
Sunday, March 6
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner
Championship
Monday, March 7
9:00 PM on ESPN2

This tournament should be quite interesting.  Chattanooga dominated the league until the final weeks when the Mocs began to show signs of fatigue, which could be expected after losing their star guard Casey Jones earlier in the season.  Still, Chattanooga is the slight favorite to take three games and represent the SoCon in the NCAA Tournament.  The Mocs shoot competently, defend capably, and force a lot of turnovers on the enemy.

East Tennessee is hot as conference tournament action commences.  The Bucs won their final five games.  Guards Ge’Lawn Guyn and T.J. Cromer paced the team, combining for 33.2 points per game.

UNC-Greensboro is the dark horse team that is hard to figure out.  The Spartans lost four of five games including a terrible double-digit defeat to a weak VMI team.  Then, UNCG won their last five games including a blowout of Chattanooga in Choo-Choo town.  In those final 5 contests, the Spartans shot over 50% from the field and 40% from behind the arc, while holding opponents to less than 35% from the field and 27% from behind the arc.

Note: Chattanooga plays VMI tonight in a game that will not affect the pairings in the conference tournament.  The Mocs will be #1, and VMI will finish either 8th or 9th, meaning the Keydets will play Samford no matter what.  The only difference is which color jersey they wear in that game.

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Site: Las Vegas
 
1st Round
Friday, March 4
G1: #8 Loyola Marymount (13-16) vs. #9 San Diego (9-20)
Quarterfinal Round
Saturday, March 5
G2: #3 BYU (22-9) vs. #6 Santa Clara (11-19)
G3: #4 Pepperdine (17-12) vs. #5 San Francisco (15-14)
G4: #1 Saint Mary’s (24-4) vs. G1 Winner
G5: #2 Gonzaga (23-7) vs. #7 Portland (12-19)
Semifinal Round
Monday, March 7
G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner
G2 Winner vs. G5 Winner
Championship
Tuesday, March 8
9:00 PM on ESPN

It’s not a gamble to say that Las Vegas is the place to be for the next fortnight if you are a college basketball junkie.  Four leagues will play their tournament in the desert oasis.  The WCC promises to be interesting this year, because it looks like only the tournament champion will be wearing dancing shoes.

Saint Mary’s deserves an at-large bid if they make it to the finals and lose, but it is not a guarantee, especially if some of the power conferences have upset victors.  The Gaels did not play a tough enough non-conference slate to merit a lot of at-large consideration.

Gonzaga played a difficult enough non-conference schedule, but the Bulldogs couldn’t beat anybody, as Washington was their best win, but the Huskies keep losing down the stretch to make that win more and more meaningless.

BYU cannot be discounted in this tournament.  The Cougars are a decent shooting team, decent defensive team, decent rebounding team, and decent at forcing turnovers and not committing a lot of them.  They just aren’t outstanding at anything, but it only takes one or two players to play his best ball of the season, and the Cougars could shock the two league powers.  With Chase Fischer, Nick Emery, and Kyle Collinsworth on the floor, BYU could light it up for three days and steal the bid.

 

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