Thursday, December 29, 2022 | ||
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Bellarmine | Liberty | -6.5 |
Butler | Providence | 1.8 |
Coastal Carolina | Louisiana | -1.5 |
Cal Poly | Cal St. Northridge | 4.1 |
California | Utah | -10.6 |
Charleston | Hampton | 19.0 |
Charlotte | Middle Tennessee | 3.7 |
Cincinnati | Tulane | 6.6 |
Cornell | Binghamton | 14.8 |
Cal St. Fullerton | UC Santa Barbara | -3.6 |
Delaware | Hofstra | -0.9 |
Denver | UMKC | 2.9 |
DePaul | Georgetown | 5.2 |
Detroit | Green Bay | 15.2 |
Drake | Valparaiso | 15.4 |
Drexel | Elon | 12.4 |
E. Illinois | Lindenwood | 3.4 |
Fairleigh Dickinson | Merrimack | 4.1 |
Furman | VMI | 15.5 |
Georgia Southern | South Alabama | -3.1 |
Gardner Webb | Charleston Southern | 10.3 |
Georgia St. | James Madison | -8.8 |
Grand Canyon | Cal Baptist | 6.5 |
Howard | La Salle | 0.2 |
Idaho St. | N. Arizona | -0.7 |
Illinois | Bethune Cookman | 28.6 |
Indiana St. | Evansville | 13.3 |
Louisiana Tech | UTSA | 12.3 |
Long Beach St. | UC San Diego | 9.4 |
Little Rock | UT Martin | -1.4 |
Long Island | Wagner | -7.2 |
Longwood | High Point | 5.8 |
Marshall | Appalachian St. | 10.3 |
Maryland | UMBC | 19.4 |
Memphis | South Florida | 16.0 |
Michigan | Central Michigan | 20.3 |
Montana | Eastern Washington | 3.3 |
Montana St. | Idaho | 10.9 |
Murray St. | Southern Illinois | -0.5 |
Northern Kentucky | Wright St. | 1.1 |
Omaha | Oral Roberts | -11.5 |
Nebraska | Iowa | -4.1 |
North Texas | Florida Atlantic | 0.4 |
Northeastern | North Carolina A&T | 3.9 |
Northwestern | Brown | 16.0 |
Oakland | Milwaukee | -1.4 |
Ohio St. | Alabama A&M | 27.4 |
Old Dominion | Arkansas St. | 10.6 |
Pacific | BYU | -7.4 |
Penn St. | Delaware St. | 30.8 |
Portland | Loyola Marymount | 1.6 |
Presbyterian | Campbell | -2.8 |
Purdue | Florida A&M | 34.1 |
Queens | Austin Peay | 6.3 |
Robert Morris | Purdue Ft. Wayne | -2.8 |
South Dakota St. | Western Illinois | 7.2 |
Sacred Heart | Stonehill | 3.8 |
Saint Mary’s | San Diego | 16.4 |
Santa Clara | San Francisco | 0.7 |
USC Upstate | Winthrop | -1.9 |
Stephen F. Austin | Abilene Christian | 3.0 |
SIU-Edwardsville | Tennessee Tech | 10.0 |
Southern Indiana | Southeast Missouri St. | 3.6 |
Southern Miss. | Troy | 3.3 |
South Dakota | St. Thomas | -2.1 |
St. Francis PA | Central Connecticut | 2.7 |
Stanford | Colorado | 1.9 |
Tarleton St. | UT Arlington | 7.5 |
Tennessee St. | Morehead St. | 2.2 |
Texas St. | Louisiana Monroe | 9.3 |
The Citadel | Chattanooga | -6.7 |
UAB | UTEP | 15.8 |
UC Riverside | Cal St. Bakersfield | 10.0 |
UNC Asheville | Radford | 2.3 |
Utah Tech | UT Rio Grande Valley | 9.4 |
Utah Valley | Sam Houston | -1.4 |
Western Carolina | UNC Greensboro | -3.9 |
Western Kentucky | Rice | 5.5 |
Weber St. | Northern Colorado | 2.9 |
Wofford | ETSU | 8.0 |
Youngstown St. | Cleveland St. | 7.0 |
December 29, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, December 29, 2022
September 14, 2022
PiRate Picks For September 16-17, 2022
That broken clock finally failed to show the correct time on the PiRate Ship. Last week, our five picks came in at 1-4, dropping our profit for the season to $1,211.77 ($1,311.77 left in the imaginary account).
We’re back to where we normally are in September. Usually, when we have a bad week, our saving grace in the past has been Money Line Parlays playing at +140 or higher odds. We had a tough time finding one really good parlay this week. While we like odds in the range of +140 to +180, we couldn’t find the right number of games to make this range work out. We also don’t like to play more than three games in a parlay, so it came down to going with 3 at more than +200 or go to five bigger favorites to get to +155 and change.
We also tend to like to play an odd number of games to eliminate the .500 record that results in a small loss. Of course, when one of those selections is a parlay that pays different than the straight 11-10 odds, a .500 record could be a winning week if one of those wins is the parlay.
Our selections this week are all about the numbers more than the actual teams playing. Without further adieu, here are our selections for the week. Remember: We never wager real money on our picks, and we highly suggest that you follow our lead.
Selection 1: Wyoming +14 1/2 vs. Air Force
This is a nice rivalry game, and the last time the margin of this game exceeded 14 points was 2013. Wyoming’s schedule has been considerably stronger than Air Force’s, as Illinois and Tulsa are both stronger than Colorado. Craig Bohl teams tend to be stronger against the run than the pass, so this looks like a good play to be on the side where the top four margins by frequency come with it (3, 7, 10, and 14 points represent the final margin in 1/4 of all college football games).
Selection #2: Wyoming & Air Force Under 46 1/2
For the same reasons above, this game appeals to us for the total. We think this game is more like a 20-17 game, which falls well under 46 1/2 points.
Selection #3: Maryland -2 1/2 vs. SMU
The PiRates really prefer to go with underdogs that we believe should be favorites, but there were no short ‘dogs this week that really jumped off the page. We believe that Maryland is better than a touchdown stronger than SMU. Game outcomes of 1 and 2 points occur just 5.9% of the time, and that includes 5.9% of the time that the favorite and the underdog win by 1 or 2.
Selection #4: Northern Illinois -2 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt
Ditto the game above. Except, Vanderbilt exposed itself by showing its real weakness last week against Wake Forest. The Huskies were somewhat shocked by Tulsa in week one, but they should rebound in week two.
Selection #5: Nebraska and Oklahoma Under 66 1/2
What do you get when you combine a defensive genius head coach coaching in his third ever game against a big rival with a coach making his debut when a few days ago, he was an assistant coach? Usually, you get a hard-fought game that tends to be a little more defense-oriented. The Cornhuskers should play their best game of the season for interim coach Mickey Joseph, while the Sooners may play it a bit more conservatively. An OU win similar to last year’s game, which ended with 39 total points scored.
Selection #6: California and Notre Dame Over 40 1/2
Notre Dame last started a season 0-3 in 2007. Before Irish fans jump out of buildings, they were 0-2 in 2011 with a loss to a weak South Florida team and proceeded to win eight of their next nine games. Cal isn’t the best defensive team in the land, even though the Bears are only giving up 13.5 points per game so far. UC-Davis and UNLV are not offensive juggernauts.
If this game ends 21-20, it beats the total by a half-point. Notre Dame and Marshall combined for 47 points, and Cal’s offense is better than Marshall’s.
Selection #7: Money Line Parlay at +204.42
Penn State over Auburn
Texas A&M over Miami (Fla.)
North Carolina St. over Texas Tech
Auburn barely beat a mediocre San Jose State team last week. A weaker Penn State team than this year’s squad defeated a stronger Auburn team than this year’s squad last year.
If Texas A&M loses again this week, Jimbo Fisher might be sharing a beer with Scott Frost the following Saturday somewhere outside of a football stadium.
Texas Tech’s win over Houston is getting a lot more accolades than it probably should have gotten. N.C. State’s narrow escape over East Carolina probably got too much as well. This is still a Wolf Pack team capable of winning the ACC Title.
January 27, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 27, 2022
Home | Visitors | Spread |
Nebraska | Wisconsin | -8.3 |
Florida Gulf Coast | Eastern Kentucky | 2.8 |
Appalachian St. | Arkansas St. | 3.7 |
Tennessee Tech | Murray St. | -12.7 |
Marshall | Middle Tennessee | -0.6 |
Wagner | St. Francis (PA) | 14.8 |
Sacred Heart | St. Francis (NY) | 4.1 |
Fairleigh Dickinson | Mount St. Mary’s | -5.2 |
Central Connecticut | Long Island | -6.4 |
Bryant | Merrimack | 9.3 |
UNC Asheville | Gardner-Webb | 1.4 |
Liberty | North Alabama | 13.5 |
Jacksonville | Lipscomb | 5.9 |
Detroit | Illinois Chicago | 6.6 |
Robert Morris | Milwaukee | 0.2 |
Youngstown St. | Green Bay | 7.9 |
Coastal Carolina | Little Rock | 11.4 |
James Madison | Drexel | 1.8 |
Charleston | Hofstra | -2.4 |
UNC Wilmington | Northeastern | 1.9 |
Towson | Delaware | 6.7 |
Elon | William & Mary | 8.8 |
Louisiana Tech | Rice | 9.3 |
Stetson | Bellarmine | -2.8 |
Kennesaw St. | Jacksonville St. | -2.6 |
UL Monroe | Georgia Southern | 1.0 |
Minnesota | Ohio St. | -3.9 |
Northern Illinois | Ball St. | -0.9 |
Southern Illinois | Loyola (Chi.) | -7.3 |
UTSA | Florida International | -4.1 |
Southern Miss. | North Texas | -14.1 |
Northern Colorado | Weber St. | -0.5 |
Houston Baptist | New Orleans | -4.9 |
Chicago St. | Utah Valley | -15.2 |
North Florida | Central Arkansas | 6.8 |
UT Arlington | Texas St. | -1.4 |
South Alabama | Troy | 5.7 |
Louisiana | Georgia St. | 3.6 |
Omaha | Oral Roberts | -14.6 |
South Dakota | North Dakota St. | 0.5 |
South Dakota St. | North Dakota | 23.4 |
SIU Edwardsville | Tennessee St. | 4.6 |
Austin Peay | Belmont | -13.2 |
Northwestern St. | Incarnate Word | 5.0 |
McNeese St. | Nicholls St. | -3.2 |
Iowa | Purdue | -1.8 |
UCLA | California | 15.9 |
Memphis | East Carolina | 13.7 |
UC Davis | Cal St. Fullerton | 0.8 |
Southeast Missouri St. | Morehead St. | -7.2 |
UT Martin | Eastern Illinois | 11.1 |
Western Kentucky | UAB | -5.4 |
UTEP | Florida Atlantic | 0.6 |
Montana | Idaho | 14.0 |
Montana St. | Eastern Washington | 6.2 |
SE Louisiana | Texas A&M-CC | 1.2 |
Denver | UMKC | -1.3 |
UC Irvine | Cal St. Bakersfield | 10.0 |
UC San Diego | Cal Poly | 5.8 |
UC Riverside | Long Beach St. | 6.9 |
Portland St. | Southern Utah | -4.5 |
Sacramento St. | Idaho St. | 6.5 |
Portland | Pacific | 4.1 |
San Francisco | Saint Mary’s | 2.2 |
San Diego | Pepperdine | 8.8 |
Gonzaga | Loyola Marymount | 26.3 |
USC | Stanford | 10.5 |
Washington | Colorado | -2.4 |
Santa Clara | BYU | -3.0 |
Hawaii | Cal St. Northridge | 13.1 |
January 6, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads
Thursday, January 6, 2022
Home | Visitors | Spread |
Loyola (Chi.) | San Francisco | 5.1 |
Indiana | Ohio St. | 0.6 |
Illinois | Maryland | 10.9 |
Wisconsin | Iowa | 0.8 |
Cincinnati | SMU | 1.0 |
Colorado | Washington St. | -0.7 |
BYU | Pacific | 19.4 |
Utah | Washington | 9.1 |
California | USC | -7.1 |
January 2, 2022
November 23, 2021
PiRate Picks–Thanksgiving Week
A Windfall!
It wasn’t the best ever for the PiRate Ratings, as we’ve had greater than 200% returns on investment in a handful of weeks in the last 17 years, but last week’s 171.2% ROI was our best in the last three years. We played six wagers last week, ranging from +159.65 to +360. We lost the +360, but we won the other five selections for an imaginary gain of $1,027.74 on an imaginary investment of $600.
Coming this late in the year, if we play a bit conservatively the rest of the year, we will be guaranteed of having our 5th winning season in the last 6 years and our 14th winning season in the 17 years we have been pretending to wager. For the season, our imaginary 54 wagers at $100 per game for $5,400 in imaginary currency has returned an imaginary $6,337.83, for a profit of $937.83, and a ROI of 17.4%. Hopefully, you have seen the word “imaginary” a few times to this point. We hope you get what we’re saying; we do not wager real money on these parlays.
We are issuing just two parlays this week. The odds were not what we hoped for, as too many games have very large Money Lines. Additionally, our plan is to play one, two, or three games in each parlay while receiving odds better than +120 and preferably better than +150. Having to ask four teams to win for us is basically one too many. Alas, we had to issue a 4-game parlay this week to bring the odds up above +150.
Here are the two parlays we have selected this week. If either one wins, we are guaranteed to have another winning week. If both win, we may retire for the season and enjoy our imaginary winnings. If neither win, we will have given back a little of our profits.
Odds: | +201.37 |
Must Win | Opponent |
Ball St. | Buffalo |
Georgia St. | Troy |
Memphis | Tulane |
Odds: | +150.77 |
Must Win | Opponent |
Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan |
Old Dominion | Charlotte |
UCLA | California |
Alabama | Auburn |
September 8, 2021
PiRate Picks For September 9-13, 2021
Last week’s opening picks missed, as Virginia Tech made Sam Howell look like Thurston Howell. Duke then failed to show up against Charlotte, and poof, our two picks were destroyed. Such is life when you wager on parlays that return the odds we look for when we place our imaginary wagers.
We have two more picks returning some fat odds this week, and maybe we’ll get lucky and hit on one. We will also tell you a week 1 tip for the NFL. Although we are here just for Money Line Parlays this year, it doesn’t mean we cannot give out a little interesting information.
Here are our two Money Line Parlays for Week two of the college season. We will eventually pick some NFL games, but Week one is not the time and place for that.
Parlay 1
Odds: | +224 |
Must Win | Opponent |
Virginia | Illinois |
Rutgers | Syracuse |
Michigan | Washington |
Parlay 2
Odds: | +180.56 |
Must Win | Opponent |
Mississippi St. | North Carolina St. |
TCU | California |
Here’s our tip for Week 1 of the NFL season. Underdogs of 1 to 3 points tend to win outright 50% of the time, but they also lose by less than 3 points another 8-10% of the time. That’s 58-60% success for wagering on 3-point Underdogs.
There are seven games as of this writing with a 3-point spread. The Dogs are:
Houston against Jacksonville
Arizona against Tennessee
Philadelphia against Atlanta
Indianapolis against Seattle
Cincinnati against Minnesota
Miami against New England
N.Y. Giants against Denver
November 13, 2020
Add On Game College Football — Sunday, November 15, 2020
Pirate Rating Spread For UCLA-California game added Friday, November 13 to be played Sunday, November 15.
Home | Visitors | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
UCLA | California | -4.0 | -5.6 | -6.3 |
February 27, 2020
PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 27, 2020
Thursday’s Games
Home |
Visitor |
Spread |
Austin Peay |
Morehead St. |
12.3 |
Belmont |
Tennessee Tech |
21.1 |
Cal Poly |
UC Irvine |
-11.5 |
Cal St. Bakersfield |
UT Rio Grande Valley |
2.3 |
California |
Colorado |
-9.9 |
Canisius |
Iona |
1.7 |
Charleston |
Delaware |
4.7 |
Charleston Southern |
Gardner-Webb |
-2.2 |
Fairleigh Dickinson |
Bryant |
0.4 |
Florida Atlantic |
UTSA |
2.7 |
Florida Gulf Coast |
Jacksonville |
-0.2 |
Florida Intl. |
North Texas |
-2.7 |
Gonzaga |
San Diego |
26.3 |
Grand Canyon |
New Mexico St. |
-5.9 |
Green Bay |
Youngstown St. |
3.5 |
Hampton |
Radford |
-7.2 |
Hawaii |
Cal St. Fullerton |
7.9 |
High Point |
UNC Asheville |
-2.0 |
Hofstra |
Towson |
6.9 |
Idaho St. |
Portland St. |
-3.2 |
Illinois Chicago |
Detroit |
7.1 |
IUPUI |
Oakland |
-4.4 |
Kennesaw St. |
Liberty |
-23.0 |
Little Rock |
UL Monroe |
10.3 |
Long Island |
Wagner |
9.1 |
Loyola Marymount |
Pacific |
-1.4 |
Merrimack |
Central Connecticut |
16.0 |
Miami (O) |
Central Michigan |
-0.6 |
Michigan |
Wisconsin |
6.6 |
Milwaukee |
Cleveland St. |
6.2 |
Murray St. |
Eastern Kentucky |
12.5 |
Nebraska |
Ohio St. |
-9.8 |
Niagara |
Saint Peter’s |
-4.1 |
North Alabama |
NJIT |
4.1 |
North Dakota St. |
South Dakota St. |
2.2 |
Northeastern |
James Madison |
12.5 |
Northern Arizona |
Montana |
-0.7 |
Northern Colorado |
Idaho |
17.4 |
Northwestern |
Illinois |
-6.8 |
Oral Roberts |
Western Illinois |
15.1 |
Oregon |
Oregon St. |
10.4 |
Presbyterian |
Longwood |
0.1 |
Purdue |
Indiana |
4.7 |
Sacramento St. |
Montana St. |
4.3 |
Sacred Heart |
St. Francis (NY) |
9.9 |
San Francisco |
Portland |
15.8 |
Santa Clara |
Saint Mary’s |
-6.3 |
South Carolina Upstate |
Winthrop |
-9.7 |
Southeast Missouri |
Eastern Illinois |
-5.0 |
Southern Utah |
Eastern Washington |
2.2 |
St. Francis (PA) |
Mount St. Mary’s |
9.2 |
Stetson |
North Florida |
-5.6 |
Tennessee St. |
Jacksonville St. |
2.8 |
UAB |
Marshall |
0.7 |
UC Riverside |
UC Santa Barbara |
-0.5 |
UCLA |
Arizona St. |
0.6 |
UNC Wilmington |
Drexel |
-0.5 |
USC |
Arizona |
-3.9 |
UT Martin |
SIU-Edwardsville |
4.5 |
Western Kentucky |
Louisiana Tech |
0.1 |
Wichita St. |
Temple |
9.7 |
Key TV Games On Thursday
Time (EST) |
Network |
Home |
Visitor |
7:00 PM |
ESPN2 |
Michigan |
Wisconsin |
7:00 PM |
FS1 |
Purdue |
Indiana |
8:00 PM |
ESPN+ |
Murray St. |
Eastern Kentucky |
9:00 PM |
ESPN+ |
North Dakota St. |
South Dakota St. |
10:00 PM |
ESPN |
USC |
Arizona |
11:00 PM |
Pac12 |
UCLA |
Arizona St. |
January 26, 2020
PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 26, 2020
Sunday’s Games
Home |
Visitor |
Spread |
California |
Stanford |
-8.5 |
Connecticut |
Tulsa |
4.3 |
Creighton |
Xavier |
6.2 |
Drake |
Missouri St. |
3.4 |
Fairfield |
Canisius |
1.5 |
Houston |
South Florida |
13.4 |
Indiana |
Maryland |
-0.6 |
Iona |
Monmouth |
0.6 |
Manhattan |
Rider |
-0.3 |
Minnesota |
Michigan St. |
-2.4 |
Northern Iowa |
Loyola (Chi) |
5.7 |
Northwestern |
Ohio St. |
-7.7 |
Oregon |
UCLA |
13.6 |
Saint Louis |
Fordham |
13.9 |
Saint Peter’s |
Niagara |
6.7 |
Siena |
Quinnipiac |
4.0 |
UNLV |
San Diego St. |
-9.1 |
Valparaiso |
Evansville |
10.0 |
Wake Forest |
Virginia |
-1.3 |
Saturday Was Upset City
There were more than two dozen upsets Saturday in Division 1 college basketball. While your favorite team in a power conference may have won, and you’re thinking that you don’t remember many upsets, let us tell you that many of them occurred in the Mid-Major conferences. Because most of the Mid-Major conferences will be one-bid leagues, and the conference tournament champion will be the representative in the Big Dance, our bracketology must undergo massive restructuring in the #13 through 16 seeds.
Thus, we will put out an update Bracketology later today, or basically as soon as we can clean up the mess and “un-muddle the water.”