PiRate College Football Ratings: September 23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	September 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Navy	18.1	15.0	19.5
Friday	September 27
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Duke	1.3	1.8	1.6
Maryland	Penn St.	-4.3	-3.8	-4.7
Air Force	San Jose St.	15.5	14.7	17.1
Saturday	September 28
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
California	Arizona St.	3.6	4.3	4.2
Wisconsin	Northwestern	15.0	15.7	16.3
Boston College	Wake Forest	-0.5	-0.1	-0.5
Central Florda	Connecticut	40.6	35.9	43.0
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	21.3	19.4	21.0
South Florida	SMU	-8.6	-7.4	-9.3
Miami (O)	Buffalo	1.9	-0.6	1.1
Temple	Georgia Tech	6.9	7.7	7.4
Florida St.	North Carolina St.	3.6	4.0	3.2
Baylor	Iowa St.	0.7	0.6	0.3
Toledo	BYU	-6.0	-5.6	-5.3
Massachusetts	Akron	-8.8	-6.7	-9.2
Michigan	Rutgers	28.4	26.4	29.1
Purdue	Minnesota	-0.9	-0.2	0.1
Georgia Southern	Louisiana	0.9	0.0	0.5
Iowa	Middle Tennessee	28.3	27.3	28.4
Wyoming	UNLV	13.1	13.0	13.5
Utah	Washington St.	6.7	5.9	6.6
New Mexico St.	Fresno St.	-20.3	-18.4	-21.1
Nevada	Hawaii	-0.4	-0.2	0.0
Oregon St.	Stanford	-6.5	-4.2	-7.5
Michigan St.	Indiana	13.4	14.6	14.9
North Carolina	Clemson	-29.2	-25.6	-29.3
South Carolina	Kentucky	6.3	6.0	7.4
Alabama	Ole Miss	37.1	34.3	39.1
Vanderbilt	Northern Illinois	10.6	10.5	9.3
TCU	Kansas	12.0	14.2	12.4
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	1.1	1.9	0.6
Auburn	Mississippi St.	7.0	9.2	7.0
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	19.7	18.6	20.6
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-0.3	1.1	-0.5
Notre Dame	Virginia	16.6	14.2	16.8
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	21.0	17.9	21.1
Marshall	Cincinnati	-9.3	-8.2	-8.2
Old Dominion	East Carolina	0.3	-1.3	1.3
Liberty	New Mexico	9.2	7.3	10.5
Troy	Arkansas St.	7.7	8.1	7.2
Louisiana-Monroe	South Alabama	17.0	14.5	18.1
Southern Miss.	UTEP	31.1	23.6	30.8
Rice	Louisiana Tech	-8.9	-7.3	-9.8
Western Kentucky	UAB	1.7	0.4	2.2
Utah St.	Colorado St.	29.1	24.3	30.4
Nebraska	Ohio St.	-22.5	-19.6	-23.7
North Texas	Houston	0.8	-0.6	-0.8
Texas A&M (n)	Arkansas	23.8	21.2	23.3
Washington	USC	9.5	8.0	10.1
Arizona	UCLA	6.6	7.1	8.0

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor		PiRate
Syracuse	Holy Cross		35
Pittsburgh	Delaware		29
Florida	Towson St.		36

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	136.1	132.5	137.2	135.2
2	Clemson	134.9	131.6	135.8	134.1
3	Ohio St.	132.2	130.7	132.9	131.9
4	Georgia	127.7	126.0	128.3	127.3
5	L S U	126.5	123.9	125.5	125.3
6	Oklahoma	122.6	121.7	122.5	122.3
7	Notre Dame	121.0	119.0	121.2	120.4
8	Florida	121.4	118.5	120.8	120.2
9	Wisconsin	119.6	119.3	119.7	119.5
10	Auburn	119.2	117.4	118.8	118.5
11	Michigan St.	117.7	117.3	118.0	117.7
12	Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	117.0	117.3
13	Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6
14	Michigan	117.1	115.0	117.2	116.4
15	Penn St.	116.7	115.6	116.3	116.2
16	Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0
17	Missouri	116.3	113.9	116.6	115.6
18	Iowa	116.0	114.0	116.1	115.3
19	Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8
20	Mississippi St.	115.2	111.2	114.8	113.7
21	Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6
22	Iowa St.	112.4	112.7	112.3	112.5
23	Texas	112.4	112.5	112.4	112.4
24	Kansas St.	112.1	111.8	112.1	112.0
25	Central Florida	111.5	110.7	112.6	111.6
26	Oklahoma St.	110.1	110.7	109.7	110.2
27	South Carolina	110.8	109.0	110.4	110.1
28	Baylor	110.1	110.2	109.6	110.0
29	Minnesota	109.7	109.0	108.3	109.0
30	Maryland	109.4	108.8	108.6	108.9
31	California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0
32	Miami (Fla.)	107.6	106.8	108.5	107.6
33	U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6
34	Virginia	107.4	107.8	107.4	107.5
35	Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0
36	Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0
37	Northwestern	107.6	106.6	106.4	106.9
38	Kentucky	107.5	106.0	106.0	106.5
39	Utah St.	106.3	105.3	107.7	106.4
40	Indiana	107.3	105.6	106.1	106.3
41	Pittsburgh	106.3	105.9	106.2	106.1
42	Syracuse	106.3	105.8	106.3	106.1
43	Boise St.	106.2	105.5	106.5	106.1
44	T C U	104.8	108.1	105.1	106.0
45	Purdue	105.8	105.8	105.3	105.6
46	Texas Tech	105.9	106.1	104.9	105.6
47	Memphis	105.3	105.1	106.4	105.6
48	Duke	105.5	105.0	105.4	105.3
49	Cincinnati	105.4	103.8	105.5	104.9
50	Appalachian St.	105.3	103.7	104.8	104.6
51	Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6
52	Tennessee	105.0	104.8	103.2	104.3
53	Wake Forest	104.3	103.8	104.9	104.3
54	West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3
55	Virginia Tech	103.7	103.9	104.0	103.9
56	SMU	102.9	102.7	103.9	103.2
57	North Carolina	102.7	103.0	103.6	103.1
58	Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7
59	Florida St.	102.6	102.8	102.4	102.6
60	North Carolina St.	102.0	101.8	102.3	102.0
61	Vanderbilt	102.6	101.3	101.3	101.7
62	Ole Miss	102.0	101.1	101.1	101.4
63	Army	101.2	101.3	100.8	101.1
64	Boston College	100.8	100.7	101.4	101.0
65	BYU	100.9	100.9	101.0	100.9
66	Tulane	100.2	100.7	100.8	100.6
67	Temple	100.4	99.4	101.4	100.4
68	Fresno St.	99.7	100.3	100.4	100.1
69	Western Michigan	100.4	99.2	100.4	100.0
70	Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5
71	Louisiana	98.7	98.9	98.5	98.7
72	Air Force	97.8	99.0	98.7	98.5
73	San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.8	98.4
74	U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4
75	Houston	96.1	97.2	98.7	97.3
76	Illinois	96.7	97.6	95.7	96.7
77	Georgia Southern	96.6	95.9	96.0	96.2
78	Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2
79	Wyoming	95.2	97.2	95.6	96.0
80	Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0
81	Troy	95.8	96.1	94.9	95.6
82	Arkansas	95.5	96.4	94.7	95.6
83	Georgia Tech	96.0	94.1	96.5	95.5
84	Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5
85	Louisville	95.9	95.6	95.1	95.5
86	North Texas	94.9	94.5	95.9	95.1
87	Southern Miss.	95.2	93.0	95.5	94.6
88	Marshall	93.6	93.1	94.8	93.8
89	Northern Illinois	93.9	92.8	94.0	93.6
90	Ohio	93.5	92.6	94.4	93.5
91	Tulsa	92.6	93.3	93.5	93.1
92	Toledo	91.9	92.3	92.7	92.3
93	South Florida	91.3	92.3	91.6	91.7
94	Louisiana Tech	91.5	91.3	91.7	91.5
95	Rutgers	91.7	91.6	91.1	91.5
96	Nevada	90.8	92.6	90.4	91.3
97	Navy	90.1	93.1	89.9	91.1
98	Arkansas St.	91.0	91.1	90.7	90.9
99	Florida Atlantic	90.5	89.8	91.2	90.5
100	Middle Tennessee	90.6	89.7	90.7	90.3
101	Eastern Michigan	89.5	89.9	90.2	89.9
102	Buffalo	89.0	89.6	89.9	89.5
103	Liberty	88.7	89.9	89.1	89.2
104	Florida Int’l.	89.1	88.7	89.2	89.0
105	U A B	87.8	89.7	88.5	88.7
106	Kent St.	88.1	88.1	88.6	88.3
107	Charlotte	87.7	88.4	88.2	88.1
108	Louisiana-Monroe	87.6	88.3	87.6	87.8
109	Miami (Ohio)	87.9	86.0	88.0	87.3
110	Western Kentucky	86.5	87.2	87.8	87.1
111	Ball St.	87.0	86.5	86.7	86.7
112	Coastal Carolina	86.4	87.8	85.7	86.6
113	Georgia St.	85.8	87.1	84.9	85.9
114	U N L V	85.1	87.2	85.1	85.8
115	San Jose St.	85.3	87.3	84.6	85.7
116	Texas St.	83.0	83.9	82.8	83.2
117	New Mexico	82.0	85.1	81.0	82.7
118	East Carolina	82.0	84.1	81.5	82.5
119	Colorado St.	80.1	84.0	80.3	81.5
120	Central Michigan	81.1	81.9	81.4	81.4
121	Rice	80.0	81.5	79.3	80.3
122	Old Dominion	79.8	80.3	80.2	80.1
123	New Mexico St.	77.0	79.4	76.8	77.7
124	Akron	76.1	76.3	75.5	75.9
125	Texas-San Antonio	74.3	76.5	73.9	74.9
126	Connecticut	73.9	77.8	72.6	74.8
127	South Alabama	73.1	76.2	72.0	73.8
128	Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0
129	U T E P	67.1	72.5	67.7	69.1
130	Massachusetts	65.3	67.6	64.3	65.7

 

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.5	110.7	112.6	111.6	0-0	3-1
Cincinnati	105.4	103.8	105.5	104.9	0-0	2-1
Temple	100.4	99.4	101.4	100.4	0-0	2-1
South Florida	91.3	92.3	91.6	91.7	0-0	1-2
East Carolina	82.0	84.1	81.5	82.5	0-1	2-2
Connecticut	73.9	77.8	72.6	74.8	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.3	105.1	106.4	105.6	0-0	3-0
SMU	102.9	102.7	103.9	103.2	0-0	4-0
Tulane	100.2	100.7	100.8	100.6	1-0	3-1
Houston	96.1	97.2	98.7	97.3	0-1	1-3
Tulsa	92.6	93.3	93.5	93.1	0-0	2-2
Navy	90.1	93.1	89.9	91.1	1-0	2-0
AAC Averages	96.0	96.7	96.5	96.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.9	131.6	135.8	134.1	2-0	4-0
Syracuse	106.3	105.8	106.3	106.1	0-1	2-2
Wake Forest	104.3	103.8	104.9	104.3	0-0	4-0
Florida St.	102.6	102.8	102.4	102.6	1-1	2-2
North Carolina St.	102.0	101.8	102.3	102.0	0-0	3-1
Boston College	100.8	100.7	101.4	101.0	1-0	3-1
Louisville	95.9	95.6	95.1	95.5	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	107.6	106.8	108.5	107.6	0-1	2-2
Virginia	107.4	107.8	107.4	107.5	2-0	4-0
Pittsburgh	106.3	105.9	106.2	106.1	0-1	2-2
Duke	105.5	105.0	105.4	105.3	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	103.7	103.9	104.0	103.9	0-1	2-1
North Carolina	102.7	103.0	103.6	103.1	1-0	2-2
Georgia Tech	96.0	94.1	96.5	95.5	0-1	1-2
ACC Averages	105.4	104.9	105.7	105.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.6	121.7	122.5	122.3	0-0	3-0
Iowa St.	112.4	112.7	112.3	112.5	0-0	2-1
Texas	112.4	112.5	112.4	112.4	1-0	3-1
Kansas St.	112.1	111.8	112.1	112.0	0-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	110.1	110.7	109.7	110.2	0-1	3-1
Baylor	110.1	110.2	109.6	110.0	0-0	3-0
T C U	104.8	108.1	105.1	106.0	0-0	2-1
Texas Tech	105.9	106.1	104.9	105.6	0-0	2-1
West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3	1-0	3-1
Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2	0-1	2-2
Big 12 Averages	109.1	109.5	108.8	109.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	132.2	130.7	132.9	131.9	1-0	4-0
Michigan St.	117.7	117.3	118.0	117.7	1-0	3-1
Michigan	117.1	115.0	117.2	116.4	0-1	2-1
Penn St.	116.7	115.6	116.3	116.2	0-0	3-0
Maryland	109.4	108.8	108.6	108.9	0-0	2-1
Indiana	107.3	105.6	106.1	106.3	0-1	3-1
Rutgers	91.7	91.6	91.1	91.5	0-1	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	119.6	119.3	119.7	119.5	1-0	3-0
Iowa	116.0	114.0	116.1	115.3	1-0	3-0
Minnesota	109.7	109.0	108.3	109.0	0-0	3-0
Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0	1-0	3-1
Northwestern	107.6	106.6	106.4	106.9	0-1	1-2
Purdue	105.8	105.8	105.3	105.6	0-0	1-2
Illinois	96.7	97.6	95.7	96.7	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	111.0	110.4	110.6	110.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.6	93.1	94.8	93.8	0-0	2-1
Florida Atlantic	90.5	89.8	91.2	90.5	0-0	2-2
Middle Tennessee	90.6	89.7	90.7	90.3	0-0	1-2
Florida Int’l.	89.1	88.7	89.2	89.0	0-2	1-3
Charlotte	87.7	88.4	88.2	88.1	0-0	2-2
Western Kentucky	86.5	87.2	87.8	87.1	1-0	1-2
Old Dominion	79.8	80.3	80.2	80.1	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
North Texas	94.9	94.5	95.9	95.1	1-0	2-2
Southern Miss.	95.2	93.0	95.5	94.6	0-0	2-2
Louisiana Tech	91.5	91.3	91.7	91.5	1-0	3-1
U A B	87.8	89.7	88.5	88.7	0-0	3-0
Rice	80.0	81.5	79.3	80.3	0-0	0-4
Texas-San Antonio	74.3	76.5	73.9	74.9	0-1	1-3
U T E P	67.1	72.5	67.7	69.1	0-0	1-2
CUSA Averages	86.3	86.9	86.8	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.0	119.0	121.2	120.4	x	2-1
Army	101.2	101.3	100.8	101.1	x	3-1
BYU	100.9	100.9	101.0	100.9	x	2-2
Liberty	88.7	89.9	89.1	89.2	x	2-2
New Mexico St.	77.0	79.4	76.8	77.7	x	0-4
Massachusetts	65.3	67.6	64.3	65.7	x	0-4
Indep. Averages	92.3	93.0	92.2	92.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	93.5	92.6	94.4	93.5	0-0	1-3
Buffalo	89.0	89.6	89.9	89.5	0-0	2-2
Kent St.	88.1	88.1	88.6	88.3	1-0	2-2
Miami (Ohio)	87.9	86.0	88.0	87.3	0-0	1-3
Akron	76.1	76.3	75.5	75.9	0-1	0-4
Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	100.4	99.2	100.4	100.0	0-0	2-2
Northern Illinois	93.9	92.8	94.0	93.6	0-0	1-2
Toledo	91.9	92.3	92.7	92.3	0-0	2-1
Eastern Michigan	89.5	89.9	90.2	89.9	0-0	3-1
Ball St.	87.0	86.5	86.7	86.7	0-0	1-3
Central Michigan	81.1	81.9	81.4	81.4	1-0	2-2
MAC Averages	87.5	87.3	87.8	87.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	106.3	105.3	107.7	106.4	1-0	2-1
Boise St.	106.2	105.5	106.5	106.1	1-0	4-0
Air Force	97.8	99.0	98.7	98.5	0-1	2-1
Wyoming	95.2	97.2	95.6	96.0	0-0	3-1
New Mexico	82.0	85.1	81.0	82.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado St.	80.1	84.0	80.3	81.5	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.7	100.3	100.4	100.1	0-0	1-2
San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.8	98.4	0-1	3-1
Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0	0-0	3-1
Nevada	90.8	92.6	90.4	91.3	0-0	3-1
U N L V	85.1	87.2	85.1	85.8	0-0	1-2
San Jose St.	85.3	87.3	84.6	85.7	0-0	2-1
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.6	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6	1-0	3-1
Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8	0-1	3-1
Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6	0-1	3-1
California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0	1-0	4-0
Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6	0-2	1-3
Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5	0-0	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0	0-1	3-1
U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6	2-0	3-1
Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0	0-1	3-1
Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	1-0	3-1
U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4	1-0	1-3
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.7	126.0	128.3	127.3	1-0	4-0
Florida	121.4	118.5	120.8	120.2	2-0	4-0
Missouri	116.3	113.9	116.6	115.6	1-0	3-1
South Carolina	110.8	109.0	110.4	110.1	0-2	1-3
Kentucky	107.5	106.0	106.0	106.5	0-2	2-2
Tennessee	105.0	104.8	103.2	104.3	0-1	1-3
Vanderbilt	102.6	101.3	101.3	101.7	0-2	0-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	136.1	132.5	137.2	135.2	1-0	4-0
L S U	126.5	123.9	125.5	125.3	1-0	4-0
Auburn	119.2	117.4	118.8	118.5	1-0	4-0
Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	117.0	117.3	0-1	2-2
Mississippi St.	115.2	111.2	114.8	113.7	1-0	3-1
Ole Miss	102.0	101.1	101.1	101.4	1-0	2-2
Arkansas	95.5	96.4	94.7	95.6	0-1	2-2
SEC Averages	114.6	112.7	114.0	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.3	103.7	104.8	104.6	0-0	3-0
Georgia Southern	96.6	95.9	96.0	96.2	0-0	1-2
Troy	95.8	96.1	94.9	95.6	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	86.4	87.8	85.7	86.6	0-0	3-1
Georgia St.	85.8	87.1	84.9	85.9	0-1	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	98.7	98.9	98.5	98.7	0-0	3-1
Arkansas St.	91.0	91.1	90.7	90.9	0-0	2-2
Louisiana-Monroe	87.6	88.3	87.6	87.8	0-0	1-2
Texas St.	83.0	83.9	82.8	83.2	1-0	1-3
South Alabama	73.1	76.2	72.0	73.8	0-0	1-3
SBC Averages	90.3	90.9	89.8	90.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.8
2	BTen	110.6
3	B12	109.1
4	P12	106.9
5	ACC	105.3
6	AAC	96.4
7	MWC	94.0
8	Ind	92.5
9	SUN	90.3
10	MAC	87.5
11	CUSA	86.7

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Boise St.
2	Memphis
3	SMU
4	UAB
5	Navy

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Eastern Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Utah St.]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Troy
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	Nevada
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Hawaii	USC
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	UAB
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Houston
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Western Michigan]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	Indiana
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Kentucky
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	California	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Arizona St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Kansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Boise St.	Auburn
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	[Fresno St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Colorado]	North Carolina St.
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Army]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	[Boston College]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Iowa	Florida
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Mississippi St.	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Purdue	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Oklahoma	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games This Week

 

 

Memphis vs. Navy: The winner of this game will have a leg up in the AAC West, and with Central Florida losing at Pitt, there is a possibility that the Western Division champion could win the Conference Championship Game and have a shot at the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.  Memphis has never been in a major bowl, although they had a team that should have gotten one in 1963, when the Tigers finished 9-0-1 and tied undefeated Ole Miss.  Navy has been in five major bowls, winning the Sugar Bowl in 1955 and the Orange Bowl in 1958, while losing the Cotton Bowl in 1963, when it was for a shot at the National Championship.

California vs. Arizona St.: Had Arizona State beaten Colorado Saturday, this would have been the top game of the day.  Cal is the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, and even if the Bears were to somehow run the table, they have little chance of making the Playoffs.  Still, this is a key game for the West Coast, as the more Cal continues to win, the better off for the Conference of Champions.

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan: The winner of this game definitely has a path to bowl eligibility.  If CMU wins this game, Jim McElwain will start getting some notice as a potential Power 5 School head coach, because the Chippewas were picked to finish in last place in the MAC West.

Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo: The Bulls didn’t just upset Temple Saturday; they pummeled the Owls into submission.  Miami should have done what Indiana did under Lee Corso many years ago–The Wacky Hoosiers’ coach called time out in 1976 just to take a team picture under the scoreboard when his team led the Buckeyes 7-6.  Miami led Ohio State 5-0 in the first quarter.  Corso’s Hoosiers lost their game 47-7.  Miami lost 76-5.  Still, the Redhawks have a shot at bowl eligibility, but they may have to uspet Buffalo to get there.  This is a perfect sandwich game for Buffalo, as they have Ohio U next week.

Florida St. vs. North Carolina St: Two weeks ago, Willie Taggart was sledding on thin ice at Florida State.  After a win over Louisville, the Seminoles are 2-2, and a win over NC State just might lead the Seminoles on a path to bowl eligibility.  Taggart has always had slow turnarounds.  He did so at Western Kentucky and at South Florida.  He was only at Oregon for a season, and this is just year two in Tallahassee.  If the fans and boosters give him a little more time, he will turn the FSU program back into a top tier program.  Dave Doeren has done a credible job in Raleigh with the Wolfpack, but this is looking like a slight down year for NC St.  The winner of this game will get to bowl eligibility.

Baylor vs. Iowa St.: The winner of this game remains a contender for one of the two Big 12 Championship Game spots.  Baylor has yet to play up to its potential to this point of the season.  They have the talent to win double-digit games this year, but they could lose the next two if they don’t bring their “A-game” to this week’s and next week’s games.  Iowa St. took their frustrations out on a Louisiana-Monroe team that isn’t as bad as the 72-20 loss indicates.  This game should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.  

Purdue vs. Minnesota: The winner of this game stays in contention for a bowl game.  If Minnesota wins on the road, then the Gophers will have a chance to start the season 8-0 before Penn State comes to Minneapolis.  Purdue must win this game, or the Boilermakers will not have a path to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana: Why do we call this a key game?  These two teams are stronger than you realize.  The Ragin’ Cajuns just trounced Ohio in Athens, while Georgia Southern is hiding in ambush at 1-2 with losses to undefeated Minnesota and unbelievable LSU.  The Eagles had an extra week to prepare for this game, while UL may be looking forward to their game with Appy State the following week.  The winner of this game will most definitely play a 13th game and maybe even a 14th game.

Utah vs. Washington St.: The loser of this game will have a two-game losing streak, after the two teams lost to the Los Angeles teams.  Utah’s loss at USC was surprising but not shocking.  If you didn’t stay up and watch the Washington State-UCLA game, you might not believe that Washington State scored 63 points.  Quarterback Anthony Gordon threw for 570 yards and nine touchdowns. However, it wasn’t good enough.  UCLA scored 67 points and came from 25 points down to pull off one of the most incredible upsets of the season.  The Bruins had scored 14 points in each of their first three games.  The winner of this game stays in contention for their division title, while the loser is looking at a December bowl.

Nevada vs. Hawaii: This game is for first place in the MAC West.  Hawaii usually plays much better at home than on the road, and playing in Reno gives Nevada a larger than normal home field advantage.  Nevada still has road games with Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, and Fresno State.  This is a must win game for the Wolf Pack if they are to make it to the MAC Championship Game.  A Rainbow Warrior win in this game, and it could be lights out for the rest of the division.

Oklahoma St. vs. Kansas St.: Chris Klieman came to the Little Apple having won back to back FCS National Championships at North Dakota State.  He has a personal winning streak of 24 games.  Kansas State had the week off after winning at Mississippi State, and now they entertain the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough loss at Texas.  If KSU wins this game in Stillwater, they then play three consecutive home games against three top contenders.  If Okie St. wins, then they stay in contention for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Auburn vs. Mississippi St.: It’s hard to think about a division game with a potential New Years’s Day Bowl participant as a potential sandwich game, but Auburn faces the Bulldogs between road games against Texas A&M and Florida.  This is the perfect chance for Mississippi State to pull off a big upset.  Auburn may not have enough offensive firepower to exploit State’s vulnerabilities on defense.  Of course, the Tiger defensive line is strong enough to hold the Bullies to less than 17 points, and Auburn will score 20 or more in this game.

Nebraska vs. Ohio St.: The last time the Buckeyes came to Lincoln, Nebraska suffered one of its most devastating home losses ever, losing 56-14.  Last year in Columbus, Nebraska came very close to pulling off the big upset.  Can the Cornhuskers have a shot in this game?  Last year’s Ohio State team was struggling a little bit when Nebraska played at the Horseshoe.  The Ohio State offense should make this game look more like the 2017 game in Lincoln.

Washington vs. USC: If the Trojans can leave Seattle with a win this weekend, Clay Helton might be able to begin to think about renewing his satellite TV subscription at his SoCal home for 2020.  A loss might put UW two games behind Cal, which would almost eliminate the Huskies from the North Division title race.  So, this is a must-win game for UW.

Note: Some of you (several somes of you) have contacted us through our other site wanting to know more information about the “Sharps” that are friends of the PiRate Ratings.  In Friday’s post here, we gave out a 5-game money line parlay with +250 odds that we inferred based on information given to us by one of our friends in Nevada.

So, the parlay won in theory.  If you did not heed our warning and actually played this one, you too won big on Saturday.

Unfortunately, this will not be a recurring thing here.  We cannot reveal the information we receive from Vegas, because the Sharps playing these parlays also have a service where they charge for their advice.  The specific Sharp that gave us this pick has asked not to be identified, and we are fine with that.  After all, we do not condone actual betting of money on sporting events.  Whether this parlay won or not, we were guaranteed not to win or lose, since we did not play it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Money Line Parlay Picks for August 31-September 4, 2017

If you have been following the PiRate Ratings for a few years, you will know that we have issued selections on games every year since this page was created. Over the course of many football seasons, our money line parlay selections have been the most popular feature we have published. There is good reason for this–they have been successful. Last year, our selections returned better than 8% on investment, which was so-so, but it was still a winning season, making it three successful seasons in a row.
Regular readers here may also remember that our money line parlay selections have tended to perform their best in October and November, so keep that in mind if you use our free advice as a wagering tool. You should know this (and if you are a regular you have read this many times in this feature–we NEVER wager on sports contests. This is strictly an exercise in mathematical fun, which makes it so much easier for us to publish these parlays.

The true opening week of the football season does not give us NFL regular season games, so we have a reduced amount of games available in our menu. Therefore, we are issuing just one parlay for this week.

This parlay gives us a calculated odd of +138, so for every $100 of imaginary bank account we invest, if this parlay wins we will receive $238 back ($138 + the $100 we invested). Of course if this play loses, then we lose the $100 of imaginary investment.
Without further adieu, here is our selection for Labor Day Weekend.

1. Money Line Parlay at +138
Ohio State over Indiana
Nebraska over Arkansas St.
North Carolina over California
Georgia over Appalachian St.
Alabama over Florida St.

If you are interested in knowing how we calculate the odds of our parlays, we use offshore books only in finding the best overall odds for the games we wish to play. Since we do not work for these sports books, we will not give them free advertising and name names. However, if you look at offshore money line odds online at any of numerous sites, it should not be that difficult to find one particular site with the most favorable odds. Most sites have a money line parlay calculator, and if not, you can find this at many different sites. Parlay odds can be figured by doing some math, but you can save a lot of time by using these calculators.

We always round down to the nearest whole dollar when calculating the payout odds of the parlays. In actuality, today’s parlay should return $238.46 for every $100 invested (or $138.46 profit) rather than $238.

Selection Sunday Ayem–March 12, 2017

Like Xmas Day For A Basketball Junkie

5:30 PM Eastern DAYLIGHT Time cannot come quickly enough.  Today is the day fans of 68 teams get to open their March Madness presents.  Most of the teams that will be dancing know they are in, be it with an automatic bid or a for sure at-large bid.  The Bubble has shrunk to just a few teams, and our Bracketology Gurus believe they have the 68 teams this morning before any games are played today.  Only the seeding may be altered by today’s games, but they agree in 100% unison that the teams we will list are the 68 teams that will continue to pursue their National Championship dreams.

THE FINAL BUBBLE

California

Illinois St.

Iowa

Kansas St.

Rhode Island

Syracuse

USC

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Xavier

Room at the Inn for six of these 10 teams, so which six make it, and which 4 are number one seeds in the NIT?

The six we have in are (alphabetically): Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Xavier.

The four that will need tissues to wipe their tears are: California, Illinois State, Iowa, and Syracuse

The one that the Gurus believe should be in over one that should be out is Illinois State rather than USC.  However, the Gurus are selecting based on how they predict the Selection Committee will select, and even through the rules state that teams are not chosen within a conference by conference basis, subconsciously the members will look and see that they cannot exclude both Cal and the Trojans.  USC’s win over SMU is the reason the men of Troy get in over the men of Berkeley.

 

There are six games left to be played, and the seed lines could change based on who wins, but the Committee does not change their final seedings within the last two hours, so the final scores of some of the games will be official after the final seeding has been done.  Thus, the AAC and Big Ten Championship Games will still be underway when the final seeds are completed.  Only the name of the Sun Belt Conference Champion will have to be added late, and the Committee can already put the first letter of that champion on the board–a “T” (Texas State or Troy).

 

Here is today’s schedule.

American Athletic Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	SMU	29-4	vs.	2	Cincinnati	29-4	3:15 PM	ESPN
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Rhode Island	23-9	vs.	2	VCU	26-7	12:30 PM	CBS
Big Ten Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8	Michigan	23-11	vs.	2	Wisconsin	25-8	3:00 PM	CBS
Ivy League Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Princeton	22-6	vs.	3	Yale	18-10	12:00 PM	ESPN2
Southeastern Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Kentucky	28-5	vs.	3	Arkansas	25-8	1:00 PM	ESPN
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Texas St.	20-12	vs.	6	Troy	21-14	2:00 PM	ESPN2
Selection Sunday
5:30 PM EDT on CBS
NCAA Tournament
First Four: March 14-15
Second Round: March 16-17
Third Round: March 18-19
Sweet 16: March 23-24
Elite Eight: March 25-26
Final Four: April 1
National Championship: April 3

The Bracketology Gurus Field of 68

1. Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina
2. Duke, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
3. Baylor, Louisville, Florida St., UCLA
4. West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
5. Florida, Iowa St., Virginia, Purdue
6. Wisconsin, SMU, Minnesota, Michigan
7. Creighton, Arkansas, Saint Mary’s, Wichita St.
8. Maryland, Miami (Fla.), VCU, Virginia Tech
9. Northwestern, Oklahoma St., Dayton, Seton Hall
10. Michigan St., South Carolina, Marquette, Providence
11. Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Vanderbilt, USC, Wake Forest
12. UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont, Rhode Island, Kansas St.
13. Bucknell, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee St.
14. Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Iona, Northern Kentucky
15. Texas Southern, Kent State, Jacksonville St., North Dakota
16. Texas St., UNC-Central, New Orleans, South Dakota St., UC-Davis, Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes: Marquette, Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier

Last Four In (Dayton Bound): USC vs. Wake Forest, Rhode Island vs. Kansas St.

First Four Out (#1 Seeds in NIT): California, Illinois St., Iowa, and Syracuse

 

Coming Next:  We go dark for 48 hours.  Tuesday morning, we will premier PiRate Bracketnomics for 2017 with a total primer on how we handle our bracket picking and outright winners of games for you that failed to heed our warnings and chose to wager your hard-earned dollars in Vegas or offshore.  FWIW, we have heard from a half-dozen of you that you have found something in our Blue Ratings that have made you handsome profits this year.  We hope that continues for you, but please do not rely on just our ratings to wager money with books in Vegas.  We don’t want the guilt trip when you cannot pay your April Mortgage or car payment.

In addition to Bracketnomics, we will also give you all the raw data to use for yourself.  We will have a spreadsheet of all 68 teams with their Four Factors, their PiRate Specific Ratings, and then follow that up with how the teams fit in our Final Four footprint.  We have backtested the data we use as far back as each statistic allows us to do, and we will include that in our preview.

Tell all your friends to check us out.  The Tuesday preview is our most visited entry of the year, even more than our Super Bowl and College Playoff National Championship football editions.

 

But remember our axiom: We are just a bunch of math nerds doing this for fun.  Please wager responsibly, or like us just wager a lunch with your friend.  Also, remember that you have a better chance of being abducted by aliens from space while being struck by lightning, as you hold the winning Power Ball and Mega Millions lottery tickets while getting a kiss from a supermodel (all at the same time) than you do of picking a perfect bracket.

Note: Special Congrats go to Renato Nunez on his impressive home run at Hohokam Park yesterday against the Rangers.

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 20-24, 2016

Not So Good

Last weekend was not a great one for the parlay-pickers at PiRate Headquarters.  We selected four longshot parlays and returned one winner at +192, as upsets by Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt prevented a potential major windfall.

For the season, this drops our mediocre results to just plain not-so-good.  As usual, our solace is that we are not out a penny, because we never actually invest real currency (or whatever you call those green notes in your wallet).

We’re not all that enthused with this week’s schedule either.  It took an extra afternoon to come up with four picks, and we included two underdogs to win outright in our four plays.  Good luck with that.

It may be a better weekend to hike in the forest with all the changing colors on the trees.

1. College Parlay @ +209

California over Oregon

North Carolina over Virginia

West Virginia over TCU

2.College Parlay @ +234

Colorado over Stanford

Oklahoma over Texas Tech

Alabama over Texas A&M

Tulsa over Tulane

3. College Singleton @ +275

Arizona St. over Washington St.

4. NFL Parlay @ +208

Green Bay over Chicago

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Atlanta over San Diego

Denver over Houston

College Football Preview–August 26, 2016

The College Football season kicks off a week earlier than normal this year thanks to the California Golden Bears playing the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.  The chosen venue is the former site of the 2000 Summer Olympic Games, but in our opinion, this game would have been better placed in the Sydney Cricket Grounds, where the current Australian Football League Sydney Swans play.  48,000 seats are more than enough for these two teams, and ANZ Stadium holds around 80K.  Past games in Australia have drawn fewer than 20,000 fans.

 

Here are the initial PiRate Retrodictive Rankings For 2016.  Retrodictive refers to how teams have done so far to date, trying to rate the teams in order of who they have beaten and who has beaten them; they are not able to be used to predict the future, like our regular Predictive Ratings, which follow below.  Obviously, with no games played to date, these rankings are not yet Retrodictive.  Rather than re-list last year’s final Retrodictive Rankings, we have applied the updates to the 128 teams’ regular ratings to last year’s final rankings.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Oklahoma
2	LSU
3	Florida St.
4	Alabama
5	Tennessee
6	Clemson
7	Ohio St.
8	Michigan
9	USC
10	Oklahoma St.
11	Ole Miss
12	Stanford
13	Louisville
14	Washington
15	TCU
16	Oregon
17	Georgia
18	Notre Dame
19	North Carolina
20	Florida
21	Arkansas
22	Auburn
23	Pittsburgh
24	Iowa
25	Miami (Fla)
26	UCLA
27	Texas
28	Texas A&M
29	Michigan St.
30	Mississippi St.
31	Washington St.
32	Wisconsin
33	Baylor
34	West Virginia
35	Nebraska
36	Utah
37	Penn St.
38	Virginia Tech
39	Arizona St.
40	Houston
41	BYU
42	North Carolina St.
43	Arizona
44	Georgia Tech
45	Boise St.
46	Northwestern
47	South Florida
48	Kansas St.
49	San Diego St.
50	Boston College
51	Texas Tech
52	Cincinnati
53	Minnesota
54	Virginia
55	Missouri
56	Indiana
57	Western Michigan
58	Temple
59	Vanderbilt
60	Syracuse
61	Kentucky
62	Air Force
63	Navy
64	California
65	Colorado
66	Toledo
67	Wake Forest
68	South Carolina
69	Appalachian St.
70	Illinois
71	Iowa St.
72	Central Michigan
73	Memphis
74	Western Kentucky
75	Duke
76	Northern Illinois
77	Connecticut
78	Georgia Southern
79	Purdue
80	Maryland
81	Utah St.
82	Tulsa
83	Rutgers
84	Marshall
85	Bowling Green
86	Oregon St.
87	Arkansas St.
88	MTSU
89	Nevada
90	Southern Miss.
91	Louisiana Tech
92	East Carolina
93	Ohio
94	San Jose St.
95	SMU
96	Colorado St.
97	New Mexico
98	Army
99	Rice
100	Akron
101	Kansas
102	UNLV
103	Central Florida
104	Troy
105	Florida Atlantic
106	Florida Int’l.
107	Buffalo
108	Fresno St.
109	Ball St.
110	Old Dominion
111	Georgia St.
112	Tulane
113	Kent St.
114	UL-Lafayette
115	Wyoming
116	Miami (O)
117	Idaho
118	South Alabama
119	Massachusetts
120	UTEP
121	Hawaii
122	UTSA
123	Eastern Michigan
124	Charlotte
125	New Mexico St.
126	North Texas
127	UL-Monroe
128	Texas St.

Here are the regular PiRate Ratings for the opening week of the season.  In some cases, these ratings differ slightly from the ratings given during the conference previews of the last 10 days, the reason being that players have quit, been injured, or transferred since the data was first compiled.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Tennessee	127.7	121.8	128.4	126.0
2	LSU	127.6	121.1	126.8	125.2
3	Oklahoma	125.6	122.1	125.6	124.4
4	Alabama	126.5	119.0	125.0	123.5
5	Clemson	126.8	116.4	125.7	123.0
6	Florida St.	122.9	115.4	121.9	120.1
7	Michigan	120.0	118.0	120.4	119.5
8	Mississippi St.	120.1	115.9	119.7	118.6
9	Stanford	121.3	112.8	120.4	118.2
10	Oklahoma St.	117.5	118.8	117.5	117.9
11	USC	119.7	114.3	118.0	117.3
12	Washington	119.4	110.4	119.1	116.3
13	Louisville	118.6	111.8	118.0	116.1
14	Texas	114.4	118.0	114.4	115.6
15	Pittsburgh	117.1	111.7	116.4	115.1
16	North Carolina	117.4	109.2	117.1	114.6
17	Auburn	114.5	113.8	113.9	114.1
18	TCU	113.3	115.6	113.2	114.0
19	Notre Dame	116.2	111.0	114.8	114.0
20	Florida	113.5	116.8	111.1	113.8
21	Arkansas	116.4	110.3	114.2	113.7
22	Miami	116.6	108.0	115.9	113.5
23	Ohio St.	113.3	113.5	113.5	113.4
24	Iowa	114.6	110.9	114.2	113.2
25	Georgia	112.5	114.0	112.1	112.9
26	Michigan St.	113.1	112.4	111.1	112.2
27	Oregon	112.8	111.8	111.7	112.1
28	Texas A&M	112.1	111.4	112.0	111.8
29	Virginia Tech	111.0	110.8	111.5	111.1
30	Ole Miss	113.6	107.4	112.1	111.0
31	Washington St.	112.3	107.6	112.0	110.7
32	UCLA	110.9	110.2	110.3	110.5
33	Houston	110.1	108.3	111.9	110.1
34	Baylor	109.4	109.7	110.6	109.9
35	Penn St.	109.5	111.3	108.0	109.6
36	Nebraska	110.4	105.9	110.5	108.9
37	Arizona St.	108.7	109.2	107.7	108.6
38	Utah	111.4	105.3	108.9	108.5
39	Wisconsin	109.1	105.9	109.5	108.2
40	BYU	110.6	102.9	110.3	107.9
41	South Florida	108.3	105.7	109.5	107.8
42	Northwestern	109.7	103.5	108.1	107.1
43	North Carolina St.	108.0	104.7	107.6	106.8
44	Georgia Tech	108.1	104.2	107.4	106.6
45	West Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.0	106.2
46	Arizona	107.2	105.2	106.1	106.2
47	Boise St.	104.4	105.7	106.3	105.5
48	Colorado	107.0	102.1	107.0	105.4
49	San Diego St.	104.9	102.2	108.2	105.1
50	Boston College	105.1	103.6	104.9	104.5
51	Kansas St.	103.1	107.5	102.5	104.4
52	Vanderbilt	106.9	100.7	105.1	104.3
53	Minnesota	104.8	102.8	104.7	104.1
54	Texas Tech	104.9	102.3	102.7	103.3
55	Virginia	104.4	101.2	103.8	103.1
56	Syracuse	105.2	101.0	103.1	103.1
57	Indiana	101.5	106.0	100.9	102.8
58	Missouri	103.0	101.8	102.5	102.5
59	Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	103.9	102.3
60	Cincinnati	101.5	102.7	102.5	102.3
61	Temple	102.2	101.2	103.1	102.2
62	Maryland	100.9	104.2	98.1	101.1
63	Wake Forest	102.3	99.2	101.5	101.0
64	Tulsa	99.7	102.2	100.4	100.8
65	Kentucky	100.4	102.3	99.2	100.6
66	Toledo	101.0	98.9	101.8	100.6
67	Memphis	102.7	97.8	100.8	100.5
68	Central Michigan	98.9	101.9	99.9	100.2
69	Air Force	99.9	100.2	100.1	100.1
70	California	104.7	93.3	101.0	99.7
71	Duke	99.4	100.7	98.0	99.4
72	Iowa St.	99.8	99.2	98.7	99.2
73	Illinois	100.6	97.2	99.8	99.2
74	Navy	99.2	99.0	98.6	99.0
75	South Carolina	99.0	99.3	98.1	98.8
76	Northern Illinois	97.3	98.9	98.4	98.2
77	Purdue	99.4	96.6	98.3	98.1
78	Connecticut	98.3	96.1	98.6	97.7
79	Western Kentucky	99.3	93.3	100.0	97.5
80	Rutgers	99.0	96.2	97.3	97.5
81	Bowling Green	96.7	94.7	97.3	96.2
82	Appalachian St.	95.5	95.7	97.1	96.1
83	New Mexico	94.3	97.6	95.6	95.9
84	Oregon St.	97.8	93.0	95.0	95.3
85	Marshall	92.5	96.9	94.3	94.6
86	Utah St.	93.2	97.1	93.0	94.4
87	Nevada	92.3	95.6	93.6	93.9
88	Arkansas St.	91.9	94.2	94.4	93.5
89	Georgia Southern	93.0	91.7	95.5	93.4
90	SMU	93.7	92.1	93.2	93.0
91	Southern Mississippi	92.7	92.1	93.8	92.9
92	East Carolina	91.6	94.6	91.7	92.6
93	Middle Tennessee	91.2	93.8	92.3	92.4
94	Ohio	88.7	98.2	90.1	92.4
95	San Jose St.	91.0	91.0	91.9	91.3
96	UNLV	89.0	93.6	89.1	90.6
97	Kansas	88.3	96.1	85.9	90.1
98	Colorado St.	88.2	90.6	89.0	89.3
99	Army	84.2	93.2	86.6	88.0
100	Rice	84.7	94.1	85.1	88.0
101	Akron	84.8	92.6	86.5	88.0
102	Old Dominion	85.8	89.2	86.4	87.1
103	Central Florida	85.9	88.6	85.9	86.8
104	Florida Atlantic	84.9	88.6	86.8	86.8
105	Louisiana Tech	85.4	88.6	86.0	86.7
106	Troy	83.6	90.2	85.2	86.4
107	Florida International	82.4	89.6	84.3	85.4
108	Buffalo	80.8	90.1	82.2	84.4
109	Ball St.	83.6	85.6	83.8	84.3
110	Georgia St.	81.7	87.1	83.9	84.2
111	Fresno St.	82.1	87.1	81.9	83.7
112	Tulane	82.2	86.1	82.0	83.4
113	Miami (O)	82.2	84.0	82.9	83.0
114	Kent St.	82.3	84.5	82.2	83.0
115	Wyoming	82.5	82.5	82.6	82.6
116	UTSA	78.4	87.1	80.9	82.2
117	Idaho	78.1	85.2	79.7	81.0
118	UL-Lafayette	76.3	86.8	78.7	80.6
119	Eastern Michigan	78.1	83.6	79.5	80.4
120	South Alabama	75.3	85.2	76.2	78.9
121	Massachusetts	75.0	84.5	76.2	78.6
122	UTEP	74.5	79.5	75.8	76.6
123	Hawaii	77.0	76.5	75.7	76.4
124	Charlotte	73.0	81.1	74.6	76.2
125	New Mexico St.	73.7	76.5	74.9	75.0
126	North Texas	74.0	76.6	73.7	74.8
127	UL-Monroe	67.9	73.3	68.3	69.8
128	Texas St.	68.8	69.5	69.5	69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	108.3	105.7	109.5	107.8
Cincinnati	101.5	102.7	102.5	102.3
Temple	102.2	101.2	103.1	102.2
Connecticut	98.3	96.1	98.6	97.7
East Carolina	91.6	94.6	91.7	92.6
Central Florida	85.9	88.6	85.9	86.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	110.1	108.3	111.9	110.1
Tulsa	99.7	102.2	100.4	100.8
Memphis	102.7	97.8	100.8	100.5
Navy	99.2	99.0	98.6	99.0
SMU	93.7	92.1	93.2	93.0
Tulane	82.2	86.1	82.0	83.4
AAC Averages	98.0	97.9	98.2	98.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	126.8	116.4	125.7	123.0
Florida St.	122.9	115.4	121.9	120.1
Louisville	118.6	111.8	118.0	116.1
North Carolina St.	108.0	104.7	107.6	106.8
Boston College	105.1	103.6	104.9	104.5
Syracuse	105.2	101.0	103.1	103.1
Wake Forest	102.3	99.2	101.5	101.0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	117.1	111.7	116.4	115.1
North Carolina	117.4	109.2	117.1	114.6
Miami	116.6	108.0	115.9	113.5
Virginia Tech	111.0	110.8	111.5	111.1
Georgia Tech	108.1	104.2	107.4	106.6
Virginia	104.4	101.2	103.8	103.1
Duke	99.4	100.7	98.0	99.4
ACC Averages	111.6	107.0	110.9	109.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	125.6	122.1	125.6	124.4
Oklahoma St.	117.5	118.8	117.5	117.9
Texas	114.4	118.0	114.4	115.6
TCU	113.3	115.6	113.2	114.0
Baylor	109.4	109.7	110.6	109.9
West Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.0	106.2
Kansas St.	103.1	107.5	102.5	104.4
Texas Tech	104.9	102.3	102.7	103.3
Iowa St.	99.8	99.2	98.7	99.2
Kansas	88.3	96.1	85.9	90.1
Big 12 Averages	108.3	109.6	107.7	108.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	120.0	118.0	120.4	119.5
Ohio St.	113.3	113.5	113.5	113.4
Michigan St.	113.1	112.4	111.1	112.2
Penn St.	109.5	111.3	108.0	109.6
Indiana	101.5	106.0	100.9	102.8
Maryland	100.9	104.2	98.1	101.1
Rutgers	99.0	96.2	97.3	97.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	114.6	110.9	114.2	113.2
Nebraska	110.4	105.9	110.5	108.9
Wisconsin	109.1	105.9	109.5	108.2
Northwestern	109.7	103.5	108.1	107.1
Minnesota	104.8	102.8	104.7	104.1
Illinois	100.6	97.2	99.8	99.2
Purdue	99.4	96.6	98.3	98.1
Big Ten Averages	107.6	106.0	106.7	106.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	99.3	93.3	100.0	97.5
Marshall	92.5	96.9	94.3	94.6
Middle Tennessee	91.2	93.8	92.3	92.4
Old Dominion	85.8	89.2	86.4	87.1
Florida Atlantic	84.9	88.6	86.8	86.8
Florida International	82.4	89.6	84.3	85.4
Charlotte	73.0	81.1	74.6	76.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Mississippi	92.7	92.1	93.8	92.9
Rice	84.7	94.1	85.1	88.0
Louisiana Tech	85.4	88.6	86.0	86.7
UTSA	78.4	87.1	80.9	82.2
UTEP	74.5	79.5	75.8	76.6
North Texas	74.0	76.6	73.7	74.8
CUSA Averages	84.5	88.5	85.7	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	116.2	111.0	114.8	114.0
BYU	110.6	102.9	110.3	107.9
Army	84.2	93.2	86.6	88.0
Massachusetts	75.0	84.5	76.2	78.6
Independents Averages	96.5	97.9	97.0	97.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	96.7	94.7	97.3	96.2
Ohio	88.7	98.2	90.1	92.4
Akron	84.8	92.6	86.5	88.0
Buffalo	80.8	90.1	82.2	84.4
Miami (O)	82.2	84.0	82.9	83.0
Kent St.	82.3	84.5	82.2	83.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	103.9	102.3
Toledo	101.0	98.9	101.8	100.6
Central Michigan	98.9	101.9	99.9	100.2
Northern Illinois	97.3	98.9	98.4	98.2
Ball St.	83.6	85.6	83.8	84.3
Eastern Michigan	78.1	83.6	79.5	80.4
MAC Averages	89.7	92.8	90.7	91.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.4	105.7	106.3	105.5
Air Force	99.9	100.2	100.1	100.1
New Mexico	94.3	97.6	95.6	95.9
Utah St.	93.2	97.1	93.0	94.4
Colorado St.	88.2	90.6	89.0	89.3
Wyoming	82.5	82.5	82.6	82.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	104.9	102.2	108.2	105.1
Nevada	92.3	95.6	93.6	93.9
San Jose St.	91.0	91.0	91.9	91.3
UNLV	89.0	93.6	89.1	90.6
Fresno St.	82.1	87.1	81.9	83.7
Hawaii	77.0	76.5	75.7	76.4
MWC Averages	91.6	93.4	92.3	92.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	121.3	112.8	120.4	118.2
Washington	119.4	110.4	119.1	116.3
Oregon	112.8	111.8	111.7	112.1
Washington St.	112.3	107.6	112.0	110.7
California	104.7	93.3	101.0	99.7
Oregon St.	97.8	93.0	95.0	95.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	119.7	114.3	118.0	117.3
UCLA	110.9	110.2	110.3	110.5
Arizona St.	108.7	109.2	107.7	108.6
Utah	111.4	105.3	108.9	108.5
Arizona	107.2	105.2	106.1	106.2
Colorado	107.0	102.1	107.0	105.4
Pac-12 Averages	111.1	106.3	109.8	109.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	127.7	121.8	128.4	126.0
Florida	113.5	116.8	111.1	113.8
Georgia	112.5	114.0	112.1	112.9
Vanderbilt	106.9	100.7	105.1	104.3
Missouri	103.0	101.8	102.5	102.5
Kentucky	100.4	102.3	99.2	100.6
South Carolina	99.0	99.3	98.1	98.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
LSU	127.6	121.1	126.8	125.2
Alabama	126.5	119.0	125.0	123.5
Mississippi St.	120.1	115.9	119.7	118.6
Auburn	114.5	113.8	113.9	114.1
Arkansas	116.4	110.3	114.2	113.7
Texas A&M	112.1	111.4	112.0	111.8
Ole Miss	113.6	107.4	112.1	111.0
SEC Averages	113.9	111.1	112.9	112.6
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	95.5	95.7	97.1	96.1
Arkansas St.	91.9	94.2	94.4	93.5
Georgia Southern	93.0	91.7	95.5	93.4
Troy	83.6	90.2	85.2	86.4
Georgia St.	81.7	87.1	83.9	84.2
Idaho	78.1	85.2	79.7	81.0
UL-Lafayette	76.3	86.8	78.7	80.6
South Alabama	75.3	85.2	76.2	78.9
New Mexico St.	73.7	76.5	74.9	75.0
UL-Monroe	67.9	73.3	68.3	69.8
Texas St.	68.8	69.5	69.5	69.3
Sun Belt Averages	80.5	85.1	82.1	82.6

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Southeastern	113.9	111.1	112.9	112.6
2	Atlantic Coast	111.6	107.0	110.9	109.9
3	Pac-12	111.1	106.3	109.8	109.1
4	Big 12	108.3	109.6	107.7	108.5
5	Big Ten	107.6	106.1	106.7	106.8
6	American	98.0	97.9	98.2	98.0
7	Independents	96.5	97.9	97.0	97.1
8	Mountain West	91.6	93.4	92.3	92.4
9	Mid-American	89.7	92.9	90.7	91.1
10	Conference USA	84.5	88.5	85.7	86.3
11	Sunbelt	80.5	85.1	82.1	82.6

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads For August 26, 2016

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Hawaii	California	-27.6	-16.8	-25.2

Bowl Projections

We erred when issuing bowl projections in our conference previews, completely forgetting that the current Rose Bowl tie-in calls for the Pac-12 and Big Ten to supply the highest rated teams not in the playoffs, rather than using the old BCS formula rules.

 

Therefore, we have moved Ohio State into the Rose Bowl in lieu of Alabama, which in turn caused us to rearrange several other bowls once Alabama was moved to an SEC only bowl.

 

We are sorry for the error.  Here are the updated Bowl Projections.

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Rice
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Arizona St.	vs.	Boise St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Army]	vs.	Troy
Camellia	MAC	SBC	North. Illinois	vs.	Ga. Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	W. Kentucky	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Tulsa	vs.	West. Michigan
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	[Cent. Michigan]	vs.	Southern Miss.
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	San Diego St.	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Bowling Green	vs.	UNLV
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Memphis	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	[Arizona]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	vs.	Appalachian St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Marshall	vs.	Air Force
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Houston	vs.	[Colorado]
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Boston College	vs.	Wisconsin
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	[UL-Lafayette]	vs.	Georgia Tech
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Indiana	vs.	Middle Tenn.
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	N. Carolina St.	vs.	Temple
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	vs.	Oregon
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Maryland]	vs.	Utah
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Virginia Tech	vs.	Northwestern
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Louisville	vs.	TCU
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Washington St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Mississippi St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	vs.	Texas A&M
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Miami (Fla)	vs.	Florida
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Ole Miss
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	UCLA
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Utah St.
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Auburn
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Notre Dame
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Iowa	vs.	Alabama
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	North Carolina	vs.	Arkansas
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Tennessee	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Michigan	vs.	Oklahoma
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	vs.	Georgia
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Clemson	vs.	South Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Washington	vs.	Ohio St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	LSU
Nat’l Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Tennessee	vs.	Michigan

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections because the contracted conference will not have a bowl eligible team able to fill the slot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2016 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

The Pac-12 was the odd league out last season in the NCAA Playoffs, as league champion Stanford saw their chances to earn a bid end before they started last year. An opening week loss at Northwestern in which the Cardinal could not run the ball and could not average even 4.5 yards per pass attempt. After that game, Stanford averaged more than 40 points per game the rest of the season and almost 10 yards per pass attempt. It culminated with a blowout win over Iowa in the Rose Bowl.

This season, Stanford begins the year as our choice to be the fourth seed in the 2017 FBS Playoffs, but their path to the conference championship is cluttered by nine additional teams fully capable of beating anybody else in this league. The Pac-12 will be as competitive as it has ever been, and the PiRate believe that 10 teams will earn bowl elibility this season, including the entire South Division. Yes, even Colorado is improved enough to go 6-6 and earn its first bowl bid in nine years.

The North Division has the two bottom-feeding teams to begin the 2016 season. California must start over with a major rebuild after losing top draft selection Jared Goff and the top six pass receivers on offense and their top three defensive stars. The Golden Bears and Oregon State, which has returned to their familiar position of the 1970’s, 80’s, and 90’s, will fight it out in Corvallis in early October to see which team will avoid a possible 0-9 conference record.

The other four teams in the North Division will make for an excellent race this year. Stanford is the favorite to begin the season, but the Cardinal are not a shoo-in to win their division, much less the overall league championship. A new quarterback must be found to replace Kevin Hogan, but Coach David Shaw has a happy decision to make in replacing him. Both Keller Chryst and Ryan Burns are highly talented and able to put up better overall stats than Hogan.

Of course, whoever wins the starting job, or even if it becomes a platoon, the number one job for the QBs will be handing the ball off to Christian McCaffrey 25 times a game and getting out of the way. McCaffrey begins the season as one of two top candidates for the Heisman Trophy (Clemson’s DeShaun Watson being the other). McCaffrey led the Cardinal with more than 2,000 rushing yards in 2015, and he also led the team in receptions and receiving yards. A reloaded offensive line should allow SU to stay consistently strong all year, and hopefully for fans on The Farm, the team will not lay an egg in September, when most of the difficult games will be played.

Washington is the sexy pick of many pundits to win the North this year, as the Huskies return a lot of talent from a 7-6 team, including two capable quarterbacks and a running back that scored 14 rushing touchdowns and who will be running behind an experienced and talented offensive line.

The Huskies have a chance to be 4-0 when they face Stanford on Friday night, September 30, but they could also be 0-1 in the league and looking at elimination with a loss to SU.

Oregon missed Marcus Mariota enough to lose four games for the first time since 2007. The Ducks look to be in the same boat again this year, lacking enough offensive consistency to win games 52-42 every week, while having a defense that could give up 40 points per game in conference play. Adding a road game in Lincoln against Nebraska plus facing USC and Utah on the road from the other division means the Ducks are likely to lose four games again this year.

The Pirate worked his magic again last year. Coach Mike Leach guided Washington State to its first nine-win season in a dozen years. The Cougars shaved 11 points per game off their 2014 defensive average, while continuing to pass the ball better than any other team in the land. Luke Falk completed nearly 70% of his passes in his first year as a starter in Pullman with a TD/INT ratio of 38 to 8. Most of Falk’s receivers are back, and the pass blockers are talented enough to allow Falk time to find them. The WSU offense should be even better this year, and after averaging around 31 points per game for three years running, this team should top 35 per game this season. Keep an eye on this team: they could be the dark horse to challenge Stanford.

There is no clear-cut favorite in the South Division, and it would not be at all surprising if multiple teams finished tied for first at 6-3 or even 5-4. Home field advantages in Boulder, Salt Lake City, Tempe, Tucson, and Los Angeles are enough to turn underdogs into favorites, and no team in this division has the talent to be a prohibitive favorite over another team.

Somebody has to win a trip to the Conference Championship Game, and our choice from among the six fairly equal teams is USC. The Trojans must replace Cody Kessler at QB, but their offense is deep and talented, albeit not dominating everywhere else. Max Browne is the new starting quarterback. He has played sparingly in two seasons, but the former top QB in the 2012 class has a rifle arm and can throw the ball 50-60 yards with ease.

The Trojan defense will be suspect at the start of the season, especially up front where there will be an entirely new starting defensive line and two new linebackers. If any type of pass rush can be generated, the secondary could lead the league in interceptions, as the Trojans are loaded in the back of the defense.

UCLA has the missing the experienced quarterback in Josh Rosen, but the Bruins have a lot of holes to plug everywhere else on the offense. The Bruins lost their star running back and top two receivers, as well as three star offensive linemen. Rosen might be running for his life a bit too much for the Bruin offense to excel this year.

Defensively, The Sons of Westwood could lead the division in fewest points and yard allowed. 15 of the top 17 tacklers from 2015 are back including the entire front four and six of the front seven.

Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado could play each other 100 times each and all win 50 times. There is very little separating these four teams, as each has its own strengths and exploitable weaknesses. Home field advantage should allow the quartet to pick up key conference wins in their paths to bowl eligibility. Other than Colorado’s September 17 game at Michigan, these teams should win all their remaining non-conference games this year. Hosting Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, and Utah should give the Buffaloes a 50-50 chance at finding four additional wins after securing two against Colorado State and Idaho, so CU has a fighting chance to give 4th year coach Mike MacIntyre his first bowl team in Boulder.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media predicted the standings.

Pac-12 North Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Stanford	24	186	20
2	Washington	8	163	4
3	Oregon	1	132
4	Washington St.	0	112
5	California	0	67
6	Oregon St.	0	33
Pac-12 South Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	UCLA	19	180	3
2	USC	12	173	5
3	Utah	2	127	1
4	Arizona	0	87
5	Arizona St.	0	85
6	Colorado	0	63

Here is how the PiRate Ratings show the league at the start of the season.

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	121.3	112.8	120.4	118.2
Washington	119.4	110.4	119.1	116.3
Oregon	112.8	111.8	111.7	112.1
Washington St.	112.3	107.6	112.0	110.7
California	104.7	93.3	101.0	99.7
Oregon St.	97.8	93.0	95.0	95.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	119.7	114.3	118.0	117.3
UCLA	110.9	110.2	110.3	110.5
Arizona St.	108.7	109.2	107.7	108.6
Utah	111.4	105.3	108.9	108.5
Arizona	107.2	105.2	106.1	106.2
Colorado	107.0	102.1	107.0	105.4
Pac-12 Averages	111.1	106.3	109.8	109.1

 

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.

Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

Pac-12 Conference Projected Standings
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Stanford	8-1	12-1 *	Playoffs–Peach
Washington	7-2	10-2	Rose
Oregon	6-3	8-4	Holiday
Washington St.	5-4	8-4	Foster Farms
California	1-8	2-10
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
USC	7-2	9-4	Alamo
UCLA	6-3	7-5	Sun
Arizona St.	4-5	7-5	Las Vegas
Colorado	4-5	6-6	[St. Petersburg] *
Arizona	3-6	6-6	[Armed Forces] *
Utah	3-6	6-6	Cactus
* Colorado’s and Arizona’s bowl bids are at-large invitations

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Atlantic Coast Conference was once the weakest of the Power 5 leagues and arguably only on par with the old Big East Conference.  Now, the ACC is number two for the first time ever.

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite–February 29, 2016

The finish line is in sight.  Championship Week I is here.  Conference tournament action tips off Tuesday night and by Friday night, 10 Conference Tournaments will be underway.

Let’s take a look at our weekly Bracketology composite first.  At this point in the season, we have shrunk “The Bubble” down to just the last 12 teams in and the first four teams out.  Once teams start pulling off upsets in conference tournament action, there will be fewer spots here as we must pop a Bubble for each automatic bid awarded to a team not currently under consideration.

This does not apply to the low and mid-major conferences other than maybe the Missouri Valley Conference and maybe the West Coast Conference.  If a team pulls off a monumental upset in, say, the Big Sky Conference Tournament, such as Idaho State upsetting Weber State, there will still be just one Big Sky team in the Dance.  However, if Mississippi State were to win the SEC Tournament, the Bulldogs would pop a bubble for some other major conference team, like Butler.

The 32 Bracket Einstein’s see it this way this week:

Seed	Team	Auto. Bid
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Kansas	Big 12
1	Villanova	Big East
1	Xavier	at-large
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	Oklahoma	at-large
2	North Carolina	at-large
2	Miami (Fla.)	at-large
3	Oregon	Pac-12
3	West Virginia	at-large
3	Utah	at-large
3	Maryland	at-large
4	Duke	at-large
4	Kentucky	SEC
4	Iowa	at-large
4	Indiana	at-large
5	Iowa St.	at-large
5	Texas	at-large
5	Purdue	at-large
5	Texas A&M	at-large
6	California	at-large
6	Baylor	at-large
6	Wisconsin	at-large
6	Arizona	at-large
7	Seton Hall	at-large
7	St. Joseph’s	Atlantic 10
7	Notre Dame	at-large
7	Dayton	at-large
8	Texas Tech	at-large
8	Colorado	at-large
8	Pittsburgh	at-large
8	Wichita St.	MVC
9	South Carolina	at-large
9	Providence	at-large
9	Vanderbilt	at-large
9	Cincinnati	American
10	Oregon St.	at-large
10	Syracuse	at-large
10	Connecticut	at-large
10	St. Mary’s	WCC
11	USC	at-large
11	VCU	at-large
11	Valparaiso	Horizon
11	UALR	SunBelt
12	Michigan	at-large
12	Florida	at-large
12	Temple	at-large
12	Butler	at-large
12	San Diego St.	MWC
12	Monmouth	MAAC
13	Akron	MAC
13	Hofstra	Colonial
13	Yale	Ivy
13	Chattanooga	Southern
14	Stony Brook	AmEast
14	Hawaii	Big West
14	UAB	CUSA
14	South Dakota St.	Summit
15	Stephen F. Austin	SLC
15	Belmont	OVC
15	New Mexico St.	WAC
15	Weber St.	Big Sky
16	Winthrop	Big South
16	North Florida	A-Sun
16	Hampton	MEAC
16	Wagner	Northeast
16	Bucknell	Patriot
16	Texas Southern	SWAC

Last 4 Byes

VCU

USC

Connecticut

Syracuse

Last 4 In

Butler

Temple

Florida

Michigan

1st 4 Out

Alabama

Tulsa

St. Bonaventure

George Wash.

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning This Week

American East Conference Tournament

Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds

Quarterfinal Round

Wednesday, March 2

#8 UMBC (7-24) @ #1 Stony Brook (23-6)

#7 Hartford (9-22) @ #2 Albany (24-7)

#6 Maine (8-21) @ #3 Vermont (19-12)

#5 Binghamton (8-21) @ #4 New Hampshire (18-11)

Semifinal Round

Monday, March 7

Lowest Remaining Seed @ Highest Remaining Seed

2nd Lowest Remaining Seed @ 2nd Highest Remaining Seed

Championship

Saturday, March 12

11:00 AM EST on ESPN2

Albany has won four straight games and 9 of 10, but Vermont has won 5 games in a row, including a 14-point shocker at Stony Brook.

Albany went 14-0 at home and is guaranteed at least 2 home games if they keep winning.  Stony Brook went 12-1 at home.

Vermont has the best shooting team in the league, while Stony Brook has the best defense.

 

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament

Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds

Quarterfinal Round

Tuesday, March 1

G1: #8 USC-Upstate (10-21) @ #1 North Florida (21-10)

G2: #5 Kennesaw St. (11-19) @ #4 Florida Gulf Coast (17-13)

G3: #7 Stetson (10-21) @ #2 NJIT (17-13)

G4: #6 Lipscomb (11-20) @ #3 Jacksonville (16-15)

Semifinal Round

Thursday, March 3

G1 winner vs. G2 winner at higher seed

G3 winner vs. G4 winner at higher seed

Championship

Sunday, March 6

12:30 PM on ESPN2

North Florida won its final three games to earn the top seed.  The Ospreys own a 13-1 home record and have the best offense and shooting in the league by a large margin.

Jacksonville lost its last two games of the regular season when the Dolphins had a chance to earn the top seed.

Florida Gulf Coast and NJIT have the top defenses in the league, with FGCU being best against opponent shooting accuracy, and NJIT being the best at forcing turnovers.

Note: Stetson is ineligible for the postseason, but the Hatters will play in the conference tournament.  Should they win, then regular season champion North Florida will receive the automatic bid.

 

Big South Conference Tournament

Site: Buies Creek, NC (Campbell)

1st Round

Thursday, March 3

G1: #8 Longwood (9-22) vs. #9 Charleston Southern (9-20)

G2: #7 Radford (16-14) vs. #10 Presbyterian (10-19)

G3: #6 Gardner-Webb (15-15) vs. #11 Campbell (12-17)

Quarterfinal Round

Friday, March 4

G4: #1 High Poiint (20-9) vs. G1 Winner

G5: #4 UNC-Asheville (19-11) vs. #5 Liberty (13-18)

G6: #2 Winthrop (21-8) vs. G2 Winner

G7: #3 Coastal Carolina (18-10) vs. G3 Winner

Semifinal Round

Saturday, March 5

G4 Winner vs. G5 Winner

G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner

Championship

Sunday, March 6

2:30 PM on ESPN2

High Point ended the season on a 6-game winning streak, while Winthrop went 8-2 in their last 10 games.  Former league leader UNC-Asheville faltered down the stretch, finishing 2-3 to drop to fourth place.

High Point won games down the stretch by not committing turnovers, shooting intelligent shots, and forcing turnovers on their opposition.

Coastal Carolina was the clear-cut leader in total defense during the season, while Radford is the league’s top rebounding team with nobody challenging in this department.

 

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament

Site: Baltimore

1st Round

Friday, March 4

G1: #8 Elon (16-15) vs. #9 Drexel (5-24)

G2: #7 Charleston (16-13) vs. #10 Delaware (7-22)

Quarterfinal Round

Saturday, March 5

G3: #1 Hofstra (22-8) vs. G1 Winner

G4: #4 James Madison (21-10) vs. #5 William & Mary (19-10)

G5: #2 UNC-Wilmington (22-7) vs. G2 Winner

G6: #3 Towson (20-11) vs. #6 Northeastern (17-14)

Semifinal Round

Sunday, March 6

G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner

G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner

Championship

Monday, March 7

7:00 PM on NBC Sports Network

Hofstra could have been renamed Hotstra down the stretch, as they won their last six games to take the top seed in the conference tournament.  They have an incredible inside-outside tandem in guard Juan’ya Green (17.7 ppg, 7.2 apg) and forward Rokas Gustys (12.7 rebounds/game).

UNC-Wilmington won games by committing fewer turnovers than average and forcing a lot more turnovers than average and then capitalizing with fast break points.

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament

Site: Albany (Siena)

1st Round

Thursday, March 3

G1: #8 Rider (12-19) vs. #9 Quinnipiac (9-20)

G2: #7 Canisius (13-18) vs. #10 Niagara (7-24)

G3: #6 Manhattan (12-17) vs. #11 Marist (7-22)

Quarterfinal Round

Friday, March 4

G4: #1 Monmouth (25-6) vs. G1 Winner

G5: #4 Saint Peter’s (14-15) vs. #5 Fairfield (18-12)

Saturday, March 5

G6: #2 Iona (19-10) vs. G2 Winner

G7: #3 Siena (20-11) vs. G3 Winner

Semifinal Round

Sunday, March 6

G4 Winner vs. G5 Winner

G6 Winner vs. G7 Winner

Championship Round

Monday, March 7

7:00 PM on ESPN

Monmouth is in that gray area, where if the Hawks lose in the Championship Round, they will have a legitimate case to make for an at-large bid thanks to a difficult non-conference schedule that included some impressive wins.  Monmouth hit a little blip earlier in the month, but they righted the ship with three closing victories.

Iona is the hot team entering tournament play.  The Gaels won their last five games, including one over Monmouth.

Siena is the host team, and the Saints went 12-2 at home this year.  However, the two losses came to Monmouth and Iona.

The top three seeds have some stars that you will want to watch and thus follow this tournament.  Monmouth has guard Justin Robinson, who scores better than 20 points per game and is like a Willie Mays of basketball.  He can drill the three, take it to the hoop, dish for lots of assists, pick your pockets clean, and then ice the game at the foul line.

Iona’s A.J. English tops Robinson in scoring at 22.3 per game and assists at 6.1 per game and is the league’s best NBA prospect.  Siena’s power forward Brett Bisping is dominant inside, where he averages 15.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament

Site: St. Louis

1st Round

Thursday, March 3

G1: #8 Loyola (Chi.) (14-16) vs. #9 Bradley (5-26)

G2: #7 MIssouri St. (12-18) vs. #10 Drake (7-23)

Quarterfinal Round

Friday, March 4

G3: #1 Wichita St. (23-7) vs. G1 Winner

G4: #4 Northern Iowa (19-12) vs. #5 Southern Illinois (22-9)

G5: #2 Evansville (23-8) vs. G2 Winner

G6: #3 Illinois St. (18-13) vs. #6 Indiana St. (14-16)

Semifinal Round

Saturday, March 5

G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner

G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner

Championship Game

Sunday, March 6

2:00 PM on CBS

Arch Madness promises to be exciting this year.  Don’t automatically give this tournament to Wichita State, although the Shockers are definitely the favorites.  They will face a very difficult semifinal match if Northern Iowa advances past the quarterfinal round against Southern Illinois.

In Wichita’s favor, they ended the season by winning their last five games and 18 of 20 after they were 100% healthy.  After being upset at home by UNI, the Shockers won their last five by an average of 26.4 points per game.  In Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, they have the best backcourt in all of mid-Major basketball and almost the equal of Kentucky’s fine duo.

Why is UNI a threat to this resume?  To start, they beat North Carolina and Iowa State earlier this year.  To continue, they finished the season winning nine of their final ten, including stopping Wichita’s multi-year home winning streak.  To conclude, the Panthers play patiently, don’t make many mistakes, do not foul much, and in late games, they are tough in the clutch, shooting close to 80% at the foul line.

Keep an eye on Evansville, as the Purple Aces shoot the ball better than any MVC team and are second to Wichita in field goal defense.  The Aces have their own dynamic duo in D.J. Balentine (20.7 ppg, 4.4 apg) and Egidijus Mockevicius (16.6 ppg, 14.0 reb, 2.8 blk).

Northeast Conference

Site: Campus Sites @ Higher Seeds

Quarterfinal Round

Wednesday, March 2

G1: #8 Robert Morris (10-21) @ #1 Wagner (20-9)

G2: #5 Mount St. Mary’s (13-18) @ #4 St. Francis (Bklyn) (15-16)

G3: #7 St. Francis (Pa.) (13-16) @ #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (15-14)

G4: #6 Long Island (15-14) @ #3 Sacred Heart (12-17)

Semifinal Round

Saturday, March 5

G1 Winner vs. G2 Winner @ Higher Seed

G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner @ Higher Seed

Championship

Tuesday, March 8

7:00 PM on ESPN or ESPN2

This league probably will send its champion to Dayton for a First Four game as a 16-seed waiting to take on a Virginia, Kansas, or Villanova if they win in Dayton.

Wagner finished 8-2 to run away with the regular season championship, as multiple teams could not hold onto close leads in key games.  In league play, the Seahawks forced opponents into bad shots and then controlled the boards to limit them to one shot on most possessions.

St. Francis of Brooklyn is the other hot team entering the tournament, coming in with a four-game streak.  The Terriers are the second best defensive team in the league, but they lack offensive stars.

Sacred Heart has the dominant offensive player in the league.  Cane Broome leads the loop with a 23-point average.

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

Site: Nashville

1st Round

Wednesday, March 2

G1: #5 Tennessee Tech (19-10) vs. #8 Austin Peay (14-17)

G2: #6 Murray St. (16-13) vs. #7 Eastern Illinois (13-16)

Quarterfinal Round

Thursday, March 3

G3: #4 Tennessee St. (20-9) vs. G1 Winner

G4: #3 Morehead St. (18-11) G2 Winner

Semifinal Round

Friday, March 4

G5: #1 Belmont (20-10) vs. G3 Winner

G6: #2 UT-Martin (18-13) vs. G4 Winner

Championship

Saturday, March 5

6:00 PM on ESPN2

The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals, and that could be just what Belmont needs the most.  The Bruins limped home to a 4-4 finish to just barely escape with the regular season title, but they look more like the third or fourth best team in the tournament today.

Look out for Morehead State.  We began isolating on the Eagles a few weeks ago, when Coach Sean Woods had this team looking somewhat like the Kentucky teams he played on when he was in college.  Morehead State won their final six games, and more impressively half of those wins came against Belmont, Tennessee State, and on the road at Tennessee Tech, where the Golden Eagles lost just that one time.

In tournament play, a team that can consistently shut an opponent down for four or five minute stretches and enjoy scoring runs, is going to advance, and the Eagles get to start as the #3 seed.  Their road to the championship avoids both Tennessee State and Belmont until the finals, and they get a weaker #2 seed in UT-Martin, who won the West Division with a weaker conference record than the Eagles, who played in the much tougher East Division.

Tennessee State is the other hot team entering conference tournament play.  The Tigers pasted Belmont yesterday and will have to beat the Bruins again in the semifinals to get to the Championship Game.

Tennessee Tech is a monster at home and mouse on the road.  The Golden Eagles will have to win 4 times in 4 days to get to the Dance, and we do not see it possible.

 

Southern Conference

Site: Asheville, NC

1st Round

Friday, March 4

G1: #8 or 9 Samford (13-18) vs. #9 or 8 VMI (9-19) *

G2: #7 Mercer (18-13) vs. #10 Citadel (10-21)

Quarterfinal Round

Saturday, March 5

G3: #1 Chattanooga (25-5) * vs. G1 Winner

G4: #4 Wofford (15-16) vs. #5 Western Carolina (15-16)

G5: #2 East Tennessee (21-10) VS. G2 Winner

G6: #3 Furman (17-14) vs. #6 UNC-Greensboro (14-17)

Semifinal Round

Sunday, March 6

G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner

G5 Winner vs. G6 Winner

Championship

Monday, March 7

9:00 PM on ESPN2

This tournament should be quite interesting.  Chattanooga dominated the league until the final weeks when the Mocs began to show signs of fatigue, which could be expected after losing their star guard Casey Jones earlier in the season.  Still, Chattanooga is the slight favorite to take three games and represent the SoCon in the NCAA Tournament.  The Mocs shoot competently, defend capably, and force a lot of turnovers on the enemy.

East Tennessee is hot as conference tournament action commences.  The Bucs won their final five games.  Guards Ge’Lawn Guyn and T.J. Cromer paced the team, combining for 33.2 points per game.

UNC-Greensboro is the dark horse team that is hard to figure out.  The Spartans lost four of five games including a terrible double-digit defeat to a weak VMI team.  Then, UNCG won their last five games including a blowout of Chattanooga in Choo-Choo town.  In those final 5 contests, the Spartans shot over 50% from the field and 40% from behind the arc, while holding opponents to less than 35% from the field and 27% from behind the arc.

Note: Chattanooga plays VMI tonight in a game that will not affect the pairings in the conference tournament.  The Mocs will be #1, and VMI will finish either 8th or 9th, meaning the Keydets will play Samford no matter what.  The only difference is which color jersey they wear in that game.

 

West Coast Conference Tournament

Site: Las Vegas

1st Round

Friday, March 4

G1: #8 Loyola Marymount (13-16) vs. #9 San Diego (9-20)

Quarterfinal Round

Saturday, March 5

G2: #3 BYU (22-9) vs. #6 Santa Clara (11-19)

G3: #4 Pepperdine (17-12) vs. #5 San Francisco (15-14)

G4: #1 Saint Mary’s (24-4) vs. G1 Winner

G5: #2 Gonzaga (23-7) vs. #7 Portland (12-19)

Semifinal Round

Monday, March 7

G3 Winner vs. G4 Winner

G2 Winner vs. G5 Winner

Championship

Tuesday, March 8

9:00 PM on ESPN

It’s not a gamble to say that Las Vegas is the place to be for the next fortnight if you are a college basketball junkie.  Four leagues will play their tournament in the desert oasis.  The WCC promises to be interesting this year, because it looks like only the tournament champion will be wearing dancing shoes.

Saint Mary’s deserves an at-large bid if they make it to the finals and lose, but it is not a guarantee, especially if some of the power conferences have upset victors.  The Gaels did not play a tough enough non-conference slate to merit a lot of at-large consideration.

Gonzaga played a difficult enough non-conference schedule, but the Bulldogs couldn’t beat anybody, as Washington was their best win, but the Huskies keep losing down the stretch to make that win more and more meaningless.

BYU cannot be discounted in this tournament.  The Cougars are a decent shooting team, decent defensive team, decent rebounding team, and decent at forcing turnovers and not committing a lot of them.  They just aren’t outstanding at anything, but it only takes one or two players to play his best ball of the season, and the Cougars could shock the two league powers.  With Chase Fischer, Nick Emery, and Kyle Collinsworth on the floor, BYU could light it up for three days and steal the bid.

 

2013 Pac-12 Conference Preview

2013 Pac-12 Conference Preview

 

Get ready for an exciting season of college football on the West Coast.  The 2013 Pac-12 conference should have two heated races in the divisions.

 

This is a year of transition, and there are no true clear-cut favorites.  On paper, Oregon looks like the class of the league, but the Ducks will not have Coach Chip Kelly on the sidelines, as well as Kenjon Barner and his 1,700+ rushing yards, as well as three of the top five defensive stoppers from 2012.

 

Don’t discount the Ducks.  New coach Mark Elfrich has enough talent to take the Quack Attack back to the National Championship Game.  However, to do so, Oregon will have to win at Stanford.  The Cardinal won at Autzen Stadium last year.

 

Speaking of Stanford, this could be an even stronger edition in Palo Alto this season.  Kevin Hogan proved to be a very capable successor to Andrew Luck, and he will enjoy having the top offensive line  in the league.  However, the Cardinal lost all their key receivers and their key running back.  SU will continue to shine and contend for national honors thanks to a top-notch defense that could yield as few as 15 points per game this year.

 

Oregon St. is lying in ambush of the big two in the Pac-12 North Division.  The Beavers have top 10 talent, albeit third best in this division.  OSU could easily start the season at 7-0 before closing with a brutal stretch of games against Stanford, USC, Arizona St., Washington, and Oregon.  It will be hard topping 4-1 in those five games, and 2-3 may be more likely.

 

Washington is just a step below the big three in the North Division.  The Huskies will take a backseat to nobody on the attack side of the ball.  Coach Steve Sarkisian has one of the best receiving corps in the country, and quarterback Keith Price has 3,500 yard potential.  The Husky defense should be slightly improved, but the schedule prohibits it from a high national ranking.

 

Washington St. and California are well back of the top four in the North Division.  Washington St. starts year two of the Mike Leach era.  He must direct a new quarterback and replace the top receiver from last year.  WSU averaged the worst rushing production in modern day times, when the Cougars ran for just 29 yards per game in 2012.  Of course, sacks (57 in all) played a huge part, and if you count the rushing the proper way, like the NFL, the number inflates to 60 yards per game and a 3.7 average per attempt.

 

California becomes the next team to switch to the Air-Raid Offense, as former Louisiana Tech head man Sonny Dykes takes over in Berkeley.  Look for UC to pass the ball about 45-50 times per game, but it will be a long season at Memorial Stadium with a major rebuilding project commencing.

 

The South Division will be more competitive than the North with four teams in contention.  Our preseason ratings show less than two points separating the top four teams, which is less than the home field advantages for each team.  A 7-2 conference mark could be enough to win the division outright, and a 6-3 record could once again be all that is needed (UCLA last year).

 

This could be a do or die year for Lane Kiffin as coach of the USC Trojans.  The men of Troy failed to live up to expectations last year, finishing just 5-4 in league play and failing to show up against Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl.  Max Wittek and Cody Kessler are battling to replace Matt Barkley at quarterback, and star receiver Marqise Lee has given statements to the media that the lack of naming a starter could be causing a stir within the team.  We cannot name the Trojans as the team to beat in the South, as possible dissension and lack of leadership could cause the demise of Kiffin in Los Angeles.

 

The team that we believe has the best chance of winning the division is Arizona St.  The Sun Devils are strong but not spectacular at every position on the field, and there is quality depth for second year head man Todd Graham.  Graham has produced winners everywhere he has coached, but his problem has been stating put.  He is the Larry Brown of football.  Should he decide to stick around Tempe for a lengthy stay, he could restore this program to the lofty status it enjoyed under Frank Kush in the 1970’s.  We look for a Kush-like year at Sun Devil Stadium; ASU should top 200 yards rushing, 200 yards passing, and 40 points per game.

 

UCLA faces a minor rebuilding project on the defensive side of the ball, but the Bruins have enough talent back to contend for the South Division title.  Brett Hundley is the best pure drop back passer in the league, and he could approach 4,000 passing yards.

 

Arizona should be vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball, and when a Rich Rodriguez team plays decent defense, you have to consider his team a legitimate contender for a league title.  The Spread offense will always produce points and access yardage, so the Wildcats are right there with the other three contenders this year.

 

Utah is starting to fall well back of the contenders in this division.  The Utes fell to 3-6 in league play last year, and we do not believe they can match that mark this year.  There isn’t enough talent in Salt Lake City.  The Utes had to fight off a scrappy Colorado team last year, and Cal drops off the schedule with a trip to Oregon as the replacement.  Throw in the regular non-conference games against BYU and Utah St., and it looks like a long year for Coach Kyle Whittingham’s crew.

 

Colorado edged Washington St. by one point last year to avoid an 0-12 season.  A loss to Sacramento St. basically brought about the end of the Jon Embree era in Boulder.  Enter former San Jose St. coach Mike MacIntyre.  In year one, the Buffaloes better be ready to play their best in week two against Central Arkansas, or CU could be looking at 0-12.  Give MacIntyre time, and he will turn things around at Folsom Field.

 

New Teams: None

 

Departures: None

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Pacific 12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	0-0	0-0	127.9	119.7	128.8
Stanford	0-0	0-0	127.1	115.9	126.8
Oregon St.	0-0	0-0	121.3	108.6	120.0
Washington	0-0	0-0	117.5	112.6	118.0
Washington St.	0-0	0-0	100.3	96.1	99.9
California	0-0	0-0	97.8	91.9	95.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
U S C	0-0	0-0	116.9	111.4	116.8
Arizona	0-0	0-0	116.2	108.8	115.1
Arizona St.	0-0	0-0	115.5	113.1	115.9
U C L A	0-0	0-0	115.2	103.0	114.1
Utah	0-0	0-0	99.7	96.7	98.5
Colorado	0-0	0-0	89.8	85.9	87.6
League Averages			112.1	105.3	111.4

 

 

Official Pac-12 Preseason Media Poll

 

Pos	Team	Points	1st Place
NORTH DIVISION
1	Oregon	145	15
2	Stanford	139	11
3	Oregon St.	95	0
4	Washington	84	0
5	California	47	0
6	Washington St.	33	0
Pos	Team	Points	1st Place
SOUTH DIVISION
1	U C L A	135	12
2	Arizona St.	130	10
3	Southern Cal	117	4
4	Arizona	76	0
5	Utah	60	0
6	Colorado	28	0
Pac-12 Title Game Champion
	Oregon	14
	Stanford	8
	U C L A	3

 

The Pac-12 did not release an official preseason all-conference team, so we will list the key players for each team with stats from 2012 in parentheses.

 

North Division

 

California

Brendan Bigelow—RB (431 rush/9.8 avg  Breakaway runner)

Chris Harper—WR (41-544)

Richard Rodgers—WR (20-288)

DeAndre Coleman—DL (48 tackles/3 sacks/8.5 TFL)

Nick Forbes—LB (85 tackles/4 Passes Defended)

Michael Lowe—DB (3 Int.)

 

Oregon

Marcus Mariota—QB (68.5% comp./8.0 ypa/32TD/6 Int./860 Rush [minus sacks])

Josh Huff—WR (32-493/7 TD)

Colt Lyerla—TE (25-392/6 TD)

De’Anthony Thomas—Slot (701 rush/11 rush TD/45-445 rec./5 rec. TD/17.1 PR avg and 1 TD/1 KR TD)

Hroniss Grassu, Jake Fisher, and Tyler Johnstone—OL

Taylor Hart—DL (36 tackles/8 sacks/11 TFL)

Ito Ekpre-Olomu—DB (4 Int./20 Passes Defended)

Terrance Mitchell—DB (8 Passes Defended)

 

Oregon St.

Cody Vaz and Sean Mannion—QB (look for both to see action where they combined for 3,926 passing yards and 26 TD)

Storm Woods—RB (940 Rush/13 TD)

Brandon Cooks—WR (67-1,151/5 TD)

Grant Enger and Michael Philipp—OL

Scott Crichton—DL (9 sacks/17.5 TFL)

Michael Doctor—LB (83 tackles/11 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Rashaad Reynolds—DB (3 Int./16 Passes Defended)

Keith Kostol—P (41.9 avg/38.5 net/41% inside 20)

 

Stanford

Kevin Hogan—QB (71.7% comp.)

Kevin Danser and David Yankey—OL

Henry Anderson—DL (51 tackles/5.5 sacks/13 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Ben Gardner—DL (49 tackles/7.5 sacks/14.5 TFL5 Passes Defended)

Trent Murphy—LB (56 tackles/10 sacks/18 TFL/6 QB hurries/5 Passes Defended)

Jordan Richards—DB (68 tackles/3 Int./15 Passes Defended)

Ed Reynolds—DB (47 tackles/6 Int./11 Passes Defended)

 

Washington

Keith Price—QB (60.9% comp./19 TD/13 Int.)

Bishop Sankey—RB (1,439 rush/5.0 avg/16 TD/33-249 rec.)

Kasen Williams—WR (77-878/6 TD)

Danny Shelton—DL (45 tackles/4 TFL)

John Timu—LB (91 tackles/6 Passes Defended)

Shaq Thompson—LB (74 tackles/8.5 TFL/3 Int./6 Passes Defended)

Sean Parker—DB (77 tackles/6 Passes Defended)

 

Washington St.

Gabe Marks—WR (49-560)

Dominique Williams—WR (34-546)

Elliott Bosch—OL

Cyrus Coen—LB (60 tackles/3 sacks/12 TFL/3 Int./7 Passes Defended)

Deone Bucannon—DB (106 tackles/4 Int./8 Passes Defended)

Andrew Furney—K (Made 60-yard FG last year)

 

South Division

 

Arizona

Ka’Deem Carey—RB (1,929 rush/6.4 avg/23 TD/36-303 rec.)

Jake Fischer—LB (119 tackles/6.5 FL)

Marquise Flowers—LB (100 tackles/5.5 sacks/13 TFL/3 Int./6 Passes Defended)

Jonathan McKnight—DB (51 tackles/3 Int./7 Passes Defended)

Richard Morrison—PR (13-10.2/1 TD)

 

Arizona St.

Taylor Kelly—QB (67.1% comp./8.5 ypa/29 TD/9 Int.)

Marion Grice—RB (679 rush/6.6 avg/11 TD/41-425 rec./8 TD rec.)

Chris Coyle—TE (57-696/5 TD)

Evan Finkenberg—OL

Will Sutton—DL (63 tackles/13 sacks/23.5 TFL)

Carl Bradford—LB (81 tackles/11.5 sacks/20.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Alden Darby—DB (80 tackles/3 Int./7 Passes Defended)

Osahon Irabor—DB (14 Passes Defended)

 

Colorado

Christian Powell—RB (691 rush/4.4 avg./7 TD)

Nelson Spruce—WR (44-446/3 TD)

Paul Richardson—WR (former 1,000+ rec. yards/missed 2012)

Daniel Munyer—OL

Chidera Uzo-Diribe—DL (43 tackles/7 sacks/10.5 TFL)

Derrick Webb—LB (88 tackles/5.5 TFL)

 

Southern Cal

Silas Redd—RB (905 rush/5.4 avg./9 TD)

Marqise Lee—WR (118-1,721/14 TD/8.2 rush avg./28.5 KR/1 KRTD/Should be 1^st or 2^nd pick in 2014 NFL Draft)

Marcus Martin, John Martinez, and Max Tuerk—OL

Leonard Williams—DL (64 tackles/8 sacks/13.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Morgan Breslin—DL (62 tackles/13 sacks/19.5 TFL)

Hayes Pullard—LB (107 tackles/8 TFL)

Dion Bailey—DB (80 tackles/8 TFL/4 Int./9 Passes Defended)

 

U C L A

Brett Hundley—QB (66.5% comp./29 TD/11 Int.)

Shaquelle Evans—WR (60-877)

Jake Brendel and Xavier Su’A-Filo—OL

Cassius Marsh—DL (50 tackles/8 sacks/10.5 TFL)

Eric Kendricks—LB (150 tackles/6 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

Anthony Barr—LB (83 tackles/13.5 sacks/21.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

 

Utah

Travis Wilson—QB (62.7% comp.)

Jeremiah Poutasi—OL

Trevor Reilly—DL (69 tackles/4.5 sacks/6.5 TFL/5 Passes Defended)

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

North Division

Team	California Golden Bears
Head Coach	Sonny Dykes
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Berkeley, CA
2012 Record
Conference	2-7
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	52
Pass Offense	77
Run Defense	69
Pass Defense	52
Ratings
PiRate	97.8
Mean	91.9
Bias	95.5
Rankings
PiRate	71
Mean	96
Bias	78
Prediction
Conference	2-7
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Oregon Ducks
Head Coach	Mark Helfrich
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Eugene, OR
2012 Record
Conference	8-1
Overall	12-1
Grades
Run Offense	100
Pass Offense	91
Run Defense	92
Pass Defense	90
Ratings
PiRate	127.9
Mean	119.7
Bias	128.8
Rankings
PiRate	2
Mean	2
Bias	2
Prediction
Conference	8-1
Overall	11-1

 

 

Team	Oregon St. Beavers
Head Coach	Mike Riley
Colors	Orange and Black
City	Corvallis, OR
2012 Record
Conference	6-3
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	94
Run Defense	93
Pass Defense	88
Ratings
PiRate	121.3
Mean	108.6
Bias	120.0
Rankings
PiRate	10
Mean	35
Bias	11
Prediction
Conference	7-2
Overall	10-2

 

 

Team	Stanford Cardinal
Head Coach	David Shaw
Colors	Cardinal and White
City	Palo Alto, CA
2012 Record
Conference	8-1 (won Pac-12 Championship)
Overall	12-2
Grades
Run Offense	84
Pass Offense	92
Run Defense	99
Pass Defense	93
Ratings
PiRate	127.1
Mean	115.9
Bias	126.8
Rankings
PiRate	4
Mean	9
Bias	4
Prediction
Conference	9-0 (wins Pac-12 Conf. Championship)
Overall	13-0

 

 

Team	Washington Huskies
Head Coach	Steve Sarkisian
Colors	Purple and Gold
City	Seattle
2012 Record
Conference	5-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	83
Pass Offense	87
Run Defense	82
Pass Defense	78
Ratings
PiRate	117.5
Mean	112.6
Bias	118.0
Rankings
PiRate	16
Mean	22
Bias	15
Prediction
Conference	4-5
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Washington St. Cougars
Head Coach	Mike Leach
Colors	Crimson and Gray
City	Pullman, WA
2012 Record
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	25
Pass Offense	93
Run Defense	69
Pass Defense	65
Ratings
PiRate	100.3
Mean	96.1
Bias	99.9
Rankings
PiRate	55
Mean	81
Bias	58
Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9

 

 

South Division

Team Arizona Wildcats                 Head Coach Rich Rodriguez                 Colors Cardinal and Navy                 City Tucson, AZ                 2012 Record               Conference 4-5 Overall 8-5                 Grades               Run Offense 93 Pass Offense 88 Run Defense 74 Pass Defense 71                 Ratings               PiRate 116.2 Mean 108.8 Bias 115.1                 Rankings               PiRate 21 Mean 33 Bias 26                 Prediction               Conference 5-4 Overall 8-4     Team Arizona St. Sun Devils                 Head Coach Todd Graham                 Colors Maroon and Gold                 City Tempe, AZ                 2012 Record               Conference 5-4 Overall 8-5                 Grades               Run Offense 71 Pass Offense 88 Run Defense 86 Pass Defense 76                 Ratings               PiRate 115.5 Mean 113.1 Bias 115.9                 Rankings               PiRate 24 Mean 19 Bias 20                 Prediction               Conference 6-3 (lose Pac-12 Champ. Game) Overall 8-5     Team Colorado Buffaloes                 Head Coach Mike MacIntyre                 Colors Old Gold and Black                 City Boulder, CO                 2012 Record               Conference 1-8 Overall 1-11                 Grades               Run Offense 35 Pass Offense 62 Run Defense 62 Pass Defense 57                 Ratings               PiRate 89.8 Mean 85.9 Bias 87.6                 Rankings               PiRate 92 Mean 113 Bias 98                 Prediction               Conference 0-9 Overall 1-11     Team Southern Cal Trojans                 Head Coach Lane Kiffin                 Colors Cardinal and Gold                 City Los Angeles                 2012 Record               Conference 5-4 Overall 7-6                 Grades               Run Offense 82 Pass Offense 78 Run Defense 95 Pass Defense 76                 Ratings               PiRate 116.9 Mean 111.4 Bias 116.8                 Rankings               PiRate 17 Mean 27 Bias 17                 Prediction               Conference 6-3 Overall 9-4     Team U C L A Bruins                 Head Coach Jim Mora, Jr.                 Colors Deep Sky Blue and Sun Gold                 City Los Angeles                 2012 Record               Conference 6-3 (lost in Pac-12 Champ. Game) Overall 9-5                 Grades               Run Offense 71 Pass Offense 95 Run Defense 78 Pass Defense 74                 Ratings               PiRate 115.2 Mean 103.0 Bias 114.1                 Rankings               PiRate 26 Mean 47 Bias 29                 Prediction               Conference 5-4 Overall 7-5									Colorado Buffaloes
Team									Utah Utes
Head Coach	Kyle Whittingham
Colors	Crimson and White
City	Salt Lake City
2012 Record
Conference	3-6
Overall	5-7
Grades
Run Offense	53
Pass Offense	71
Run Defense	69
Pass Defense	64
Ratings
PiRate	99.7
Mean	96.7
Bias	98.5
Rankings
PiRate	60
Mean	75
Bias	66
Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9

 

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Today’s Conference Tournaments in Action

Atlantic Sun—Quarterfinal Round

Northeast—Quarterfinal Round

Ohio Valley—Opening Round

Patriot—Quarterfinal Round

West Coast—Opening Round

 

America East Conference

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Stony Brook	14-2	23-6	71
2	Vermont	11-5	19-10	128
3	Hartford	10-6	17-12	171
4	Albany	9-7	21-10	164
5	Maine	6-10	11-18	273
6	U M B C	5-11	7-22	312
7	N. Hampshire	5-11	9-19	293
8	Binghamton	1-15	3-26	338

 

Conference Tournament—Albany, NY  (Championship Game at Higher Seed)

 

Game #	Day 1 – Quarterfinals	Time	TV
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
1	2-Vermont vs. 7-New Hampshire	12:00 Noon	ESPN3
2	3-Hartford vs. 6-U M B C	2:00 PM	ESPN3
3	1-Stony Brook vs. 8-Binghamton	6:00 PM	ESPN3
4	4-Albany vs. 5-Mainer	8:00 PM	ESPN3
	Day 2 – Semifinals
	SUNDAY, MARCH 10
5	Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2	5:00 PM	ESPN3
6	Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4	7:00 PM	ESPN3
	Day 3 -Finals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 16
7	Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6	11:30 AM	ESPN2
	at Higher Seeded Winner’s Home Court

 

Online Site: www.americaeast.com

 

Atlantic Sun Conference

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Mercer	14-4	21-10	131
2	Florida Gulf Coast	13-5	21-10	109
3	Stetson	11-7	14-15	223
4	SC Upstate	9-9	15-16	228
5	Jacksonville	9-9	14-17	268
6	North Florida	8-10	13-18	220
7	East Tennessee St.	8-10	10-21	263
8	Lipscomb	7-11	12-17	235

 

Conference Tournament—Macon, GA (Mercer)

Game #	Day 1 – Quarterfinals	Time	TV
	WEDNESDAY, MARCH 06, 2013
1	#2 Florida Gulf Coast vs. #7 North Florida	2:30 p.m.	ESPN3
2	#1 Mercer vs. #8 Lipscomb	8:30 p.m.	ESPN3
	Day 2 – Quarterfinals
	THURSDAY, MARCH 07, 2013
3	#3 Stetson vs. #6 East Tennessee St.	2:30 p.m.	ESPN3
4	#4 Jacksonville vs. #5 USC-Upstate	8:30 p.m.	ESPN3
	Day 3 – Semifinals
	FRIDAY, MARCH 08, 2013
5	Winners Games 1 & 3	5:30 p.m.	CSS
6	Winners Games 2 & 4	8:00 p.m.	CSS
	Day 4 – Finals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 09, 2013
7	Semifinal Winners	12:00 p.m.	ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.atlanticsun.org

 

Big South Conference   Seed Team Conference Overall RPI 1 Charleston Southern 12-4 17-11 186 2 High Point 12-4 17-12 248 3 Gardner-Webb 11-5 20-11 185 4 UNC-Asheville 10-6 16-16 202 5 Coastal Carolina 9-7 14-15 246 6 V M I 8-8 13-16 311 7 Campbell 7-9 13-19 293 8 Radford 7-9 13-19 313 9 Winthrop 6-10 14-16 275 10 Liberty 6-10 12-20 324 11 Presbyterian 4-12 8-24 339 12 Longwood 4-12 8-24 336   Conference Tournament—Conway, SC (Myrtle Beach Area) (Coastal Carolina) Game # Day 1 – First Round Time TV   TUESDAY, MARCH 5     1 5S Winthrop  60  4N Radford  58 ot     2 6N Longwood  87  3S UNC-Asheville  72     3 3N Campbell  81  6S Presbyterian  73     4 5N Liberty  78  4S Coastal Carolina  61               Day 2 – Quarterfinals       THURSDAY, MARCH 7     5 1S Charleston Southern vs. 5S Winthrop 12 Noon Online 6 2N V M I vs. 6N Longwood 2:00 PM Online 7 2S Gardner-Webb vs. 3N Campbell 6:00 PM Online 8 1N High Point vs. 5N Liberty 8:00 PM Online           Day 3 – Semifinals       SATURDAY, MARCH 9     9 Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6 12 Noon ESPN3 10 Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8 2:00 PM ESPN3           Day 4-Finals       SUNDAY, MARCH 10     11 Winner Game 9 vs. Winner Game 10 12 Noon ESPN2   Online TV Site: www.bigsouthsports.com   Colonial Athletic Association   Seed Team Conference Overall RPI 1 Northeastern 14-4 19-11 160 2 Delaware 13-5 18-13 127 3 James Madison 11-7 17-14 207 4 George Mason 10-8 17-13 155 5 Drexel 9-9 13-17 205 6 William & Mary 7-11 13-16 265 7 Hofstra 4-14 7-24 321   Conference Tournament—Richmond, VA Game # Day 1 – Quarterfinals Time TV   SATURDAY, MARCH 9     1 4-George Mason vs. 5-Drexel 3:30 PM Online 2 2-Delaware vs. 7-Hofstra 6:00 PM Online 3 3-James Madison vs. 6-William & Mary 8:30 PM Online           Day 2 – Semifinals       SUNDAY, MARCH 10     4 1-Northeastern vs. Winner Game 1 2:00 PM NBCSN 5 Winner Game 2 vs. Winner Game 3 4:30 PM NBCSN           Day 3-Finals       MONDAY, MARCH 11     6 Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 7:00 PM NBCSN   Online Site: http://www.caasports.com   Horizon League   Seed Team Conference Overall RPI 1 Valparaiso 13-3 24-7 63 2 Detroit 12-4 20-11 58 3 Wright St. 10-6 19-11 166 4 Green Bay 10-6 17-14 167 5 Illinois-Chicago 7-9 17-14 164 6 Youngstown St. 7-9 17-14 190 7 Loyola (Chi) 5-11 15-16 218 8 Cleveland St. 5-11 14-18 196 9 Milwaukee 3-13 8-24 301

Conference Tournament—1^st Round & Championship @ Higher Seed, Quarterfinals & Semifinals at Valparaiso

 

Game #	Day 1 – 1st Round	Time	TV
	TUESDAY, MARCH 5
1	4-Green Bay  62  9-Milwaukee  46
2	5-Illinois-Chicago  82  8-Cleveland St.  59
3	6-Youngstown St.  62  7-Loyola (Chi)  60
	Day 2 – Quarterfinals
	FRIDAY, MARCH 8
4	3-Wright St. vs. 6-Youngstown St.	6:00 PM	Horizon Network
5	4-Green Bay vs. 5-Illinois-Chicago	8:30 PM	Horizon Network
	Day 3 – Semifinals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
6	2-Detroit vs. Winner Game 4	6:00 PM	ESPNU (10:30)
7	1-Valparaiso vs/ Winner Game 5	8:30 PM	ESPNU
	Day 4 – Finals
	TUESDAY, MARCH 12
8	Winner Game 6 vs. Winner Game 7	9:00 PM	ESPN

 

Online Site: http://www.horizonleague.org

 

M A A C

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Niagara	13-5	18-12	123
2	Rider	12-6	18-13	135
3	Loyola (MD)	12-6	21-10	98
4	Iona	11-7	17-13	117
5	Canisius	11-7	18-12	110
6	Manhattan	9-9	12-17	200
7	Fairfield	9-9	17-14	170
8	Marist	6-12	10-20	250
9	Siena	4-14	7-23	297
10	St. Peter’s	3-15	9-20	283

 

Conference Tournament—Springfield, MA

Game #	Day 1 – 1st Round	Time	TV
	FRIDAY, MARCH 8
1	8-Marist vs. 9-Siena	7:30 PM	Online
2	7-Fairfield vs. 10-St. Peter’s	9:30 PM	Online
	Day 2 – Quarterfinals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
3	1-Niagara vs. Winner Game 1	2:30 PM	ESPN3
4	4-Iona vs. 5-Canisius	4:30 PM	ESPN3
5	2-Rider vs. Winner Game 2	7:30 PM	ESPN3
6	3-Loyola (MD) vs. 6-Manhattan	9:30 PM	ESPN3
	Day 3 – Semifinals
	SUNDAY, MARCH 10
7	Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4	2:00 PM	ESPN3
8	Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6	4:30 PM	ESPN3
	Day 4 – Finals
	MONDAY, MARCH 11
9	Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8	9:00 PM	ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.maacsports.com

 

Missouri Valley Conference

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Creighton	13-5	24-7	36
2	Wichita St.	12-6	24-7	40
3	Northern Iowa	11-7	18-13	79
4	Evansville	10-8	18-13	96
5	Indiana St.	9-9	17-13	78
6	Illinois St.	8-10	17-14	120
7	Missouri St.	7-11	10-21	211
8	Bradley	7-11	16-15	181
9	Drake	7-11	14-16	150
10	Southern Illinois	6-12	14-16	177

 

Conference Tournament—St. Louis (Arch Madness)

 

Online Site: http://www.mvc-sports.com

 

 

Northeast Conference

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Robert Morris	14-4	22-9	114
2	Wagner	12-6	18-11	124
3	Long Island	12-6	17-13	195
4	Bryant	12-6	19-10	146
5	Mt. St. Mary‘s	11-7	16-13	156
6	Quinnipiac	11-7	15-15	191
7	Central Connecticut	9-9	13-16	197
8	St. Francis, NY	8-10	12-17	216

 

Conference Tournament—Games at Campus Sites.  Higher Seeds Host All Games.  Teams Will Be Re-Seeded After Quarterfinals

 

Game #	Day 1 – Quarterfinals	Time	TV
	WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6
1	8-St. Francis (NY) at 1-Robert Morris	7:00 PM	Online
2	7-Central Connecticut at 2-Wagner	7:00 PM	Online
3	6-Quinnipiac at 3-Long Island	7:00 PM	Online
4	5-Mt. St. Mary‘s at 4-Bryant	7:00 PM	Online
	Day 2 – Semifinals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
5	Lowest Seed at Highest Seed Winners	12:00 or 2:30 PM	ESPN3
6	3rd Highest at 2nd Highest Seed Winners	12:00 or 2:30 PM	ESPN3
	Day 3 – Finals
	TUESDAY, MARCH 12
7	Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6	7:00 PM	ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.northeastconference.org

 

Ohio Valley Conference

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Belmont	14-2	24-6	24
2	Murray St.	10-6	20-9	128
3	Eastern Kentucky	12-4	23-8	65
4	Tennessee St.	11-5	17-13	111
5	Morehead St.	8-8	14-17	172
6	Southeast Missouri	8-8	16-15	224
7	E. Illinois	6-10	11-20	272
8	UT-Martin	5-11	9-20	306

 

Conference Tournament—Nashville

 

Game #	Day 1 – 1st Round	Time	TV
	WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6
1	5-Morehead St. vs. 8-UT-Martin	7:00 PM	OVC Network
2	6-Southeast Missouri vs. 7-Eastern Illinois	9:00 PM	OVC Network
	Day 2 – Quarterfinals
	THURSDAY, MARCH 7
3	4-Tennessee St. vs. Winner Game 1	7:00 PM	OVC Network
4	3-Eastern Kentucky vs. Winner Game 2	9:00 PM	OVC Network
	Day 3 – Semifinals
	FRIDAY, MARCH 8
5	1-Belmont vs. Winner Game 3	7:00 PM	ESPNU
6	2-Murray St. vs. Winner Game 4	9:00 PM	ESPN3
	Day 4 – Finals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
7	Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6	7:00 PM	ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://ovcsports.sidearmsports.com

 

Patriot League

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Bucknell	12-2	25-5	52
2	Lafayette	10-4	17-14	173
3	Lehigh	10-4	20-8	105
4	Army	8-6	15-14	213
5	American	5-9	10-19	261
6	Colgate	5-9	11-20	255
7	Holy Cross	4-10	12-17	249
8	Navy	2-12	8-22	314

 

Game #	Day 1 – Quarterfinals	Time	TV
	WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6
1	8-Navy at 1-Bucknell	7:00 PM	Patriot All-Access
2	5-American at 4-Army	7:00 PM	Patriot All-Access
3	7-Holy Cross at 2-Lafayette	7:00 PM	Patriot All-Access
4	6-Colgate at 3-Lehigh	7:00 PM	Patriot All-Access
	Day 2 – Semifinals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
	Games at Higher Seed
5	Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2	2:00 or 4:30 PM	CBSSN
6	Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4	2:00 or 4:30 PM	CBSSN
	Day 3 – Finals
	WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13
	Game at Higher Seed
7	Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6	7:30 PM	CBSSN

 

Online Site: http://www.patriotleague.org

 

Southern Conference

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Davidson	17-1	23-7	82
2	College of Charleston	14-4	22-9	147
3	Elon	13-5	20-10	176
4	Appalachian St.	10-8	14-15	270
5	Western Carolina	9-9	13-18	251
6	Samford	9-9	11-20	281
7	Chattanooga	8-10	13-18	276
8	Wofford	7-11	13-18	240
9	Georgia Southern	7-11	13-18	277
10	UNC-Greensboro	6-12	8-21	330
11	The Citadel	5-13	8-21	327
12	Furman	3-15	6-23	342

 

Conference Tournament: Asheville, NC

Game #	Day 1 – 1st Round	Time	TV
	FRIDAY, MARCH 8
1	8-Wofford vs. 9-Georgia Southern	11:30 AM	ESPN3
2	5-Samford vs. 12-Furman	2:00 PM	ESPN3
3	7-Chattanooga vs. 10-UNC-Greensboro	6:00 PM	ESPN3
4	6-Western Carolina vs. 11-The Citadel	8:30 PM	ESPN3
	Day 2 – Quarterfinals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
5	1-Davidson vs. Winner Game 1	12:00 PM	ESPN3
6	4-Appalachian St. vs. Winner Game 2	2:30 PM	ESPN3
7	2-Elon vs. Winner Game 3	6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	3-College of Charleston vs. Winner Game 4	8:30 PM	ESPN3
	Day 3 – Quarterfinals
	SUNDAY, MARCH 10
9	Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6	6:00 PM	ESPN3
10	Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8	8:30 PM	ESPN3
	Day 4 – Finals
	MONDAY, MARCH 11
11	Winner Game 9 vs. Winner Game 10	7:00 PM	ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.soconsports.com

 

Summit League

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	South Dakota St.	13-3	22-9	75
2	Western Illinois	13-3	21-7	126
3	North Dakota St.	12-4	22-8	81
4	Oakland	10-6	16-15	132
5	I P F W	7-9	15-16	264
6	Mo.-Kansas City	5-11	8-23	287
7	South Dakota	5-11	10-19	242
8	I U P U I	1-15	6-25	325

 

Conference Tournament—Sioux Falls, SD

 

Game #	Day 1 – Quarterfinals	Time	TV
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
1	1-South Dakota St. vs. 8-I U P U I	7:00 PM	FOXCS
2	2-Western Illinois vs. 7-South Dakota	9:30 PM	FOXCS
	Day 2 – Quarterfinals
	SUNDAY, MARCH 10
3	4-Oakland vs. 5-I P F W	7:00 PM	FOXCS
4	3-North Dakota St. vs. 6-UM-Kansas City	9:30 PM	FOXCS
	Day 3 -Semifinals
	MONDAY, MARCH 11
5	Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 3	7:00 PM	FOXCS
6	Winner Game 2 vs. Winner Game 4	9:30 PM	FOXCS
	Day 4 – Finals
	TUESDAY, MARCH 12
7	Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6	9:00 PM	ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.thesummitleague.org

 

Sun Belt Conference

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Middle Tennessee	19-1	27-4	23
2	South Alabama	14-6	17-11	149
3	Arkansas St.	12-8	18-11	154
4	Florida Int’l	11-9	16-13	137
5	Arkansas-Little Rock	11-9	17-14	163
6	Western Kentucky	10-10	16-15	178
7	Florida Atlantic	9-11	14-17	209
8	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-12	12-19	229
9	North Texas	7-13	12-19	233
10	Troy	6-14	11-20	271
11	Louisiana-Monroe	3-17	4-22	299

 

Conference Tournament—Hot Springs, AR

Note: This Tournament Uses Two Courts— S=Summit Arena, C=Convention Center Court

 

Game #	Day 1 – 1st Round	Time	TV
	FRIDAY, MARCH 8
1	6-Western Kentucky vs. 11-UL-Monroe	7:00 PM  S	Online
2	8-UL-Lafayette vs. 9-North Texas	7:30 PM  C	Online
3	7-Florida Atlantic vs. 10-Troy	9:30 PM  S	Online
	Day 2 – Quarterfinals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
4	4-Florida Int’l vs. 5-Ark.-Little Rock	7:00 PM  C	Sun Belt Network
5	1-Middle Tennessee vs. Winner Game 2	7:30 PM  S	Sun Belt Network
6	3-South Alabama vs. Winner Game 1	9:30 PM  C	Sun Belt Network
7	2-Arkansas St. vs. Winner Game 3	10:00 PM  S	Sun Belt Network
	Day 3 – Semifinals
	SUNDAY, MARCH 10
8	Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5	7:30 PM  S	Sun Belt Network
9	Winner Game 6 vs. Winner Game 7	9:00 PM  S	Sun Belt Network
	Day 4 – Finals
10	Winner Game 8 vs. Winner Game 9	7:00 PM  S	ESPN

 

Online Site: http://www.sunbeltsports.org

 

West Coast Conference

 

Seed	Team	Conference	Overall	RPI
1	Gonzaga	16-0	29-2	10
2	St. Mary’s	14-2	26-5	41
3	B Y U	10-6	21-10	62
4	Santa Clara	9-7	21-10	90
5	San Francisco	7-9	14-15	152
6	San Diego	7-9	14-17	180
7	Pepperdine	4-12	12-17	204
8	Portland	4-12	11-20	219
9	Loyola Marymount	1-15	8-22	253

 

Conference Tournament: Las Vegas

 

Game #	Day 1 – 1st Round	Time	TV
	WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6
1	8-Portland vs. 9-Loyola Marymount	8:00 PM	BYU-TV
	Day 2 – 2nd Round
	THURSDAY, MARCH 7
2	2-San Francisco vs. Winner Game 1	8:00 PM	BYU-TV
3	6-San Diego vs. 7-Pepperdine	10:30 PM	BYU-TV
	Day 3 – Quarterfinals
	FRIDAY, MARCH 8
4	4-Santa Clara vs. Winner Game 2	8:00 PM	ESPNU
5	3-B Y U vs. Winner Game 3	10:30 PM	ESPNU
	Day 4 – Semifinals
	SATURDAY, MARCH 9
6	1-Gonzaga vs. Winner Game 4	8:00 PM	ESPN2
7	2-St. Mary’s vs. Winner Game 5	10:30 PM	ESPN2
	Day 5 – Finals
8	MONDAY, MARCH 11	8:00 PM	ESPN

 

Online Site: http://www.wccsports.com

 

As The Bubble Blows

Alabama, Southern Mississippi, and Arkansas lost last night.  The Crimson Tide can still earn an at-large bid with a win Saturday and then making it to the SEC Tournament Championship Game.  Southern Miss is NIT-bound unless they win the CUSA Tournament.  Arkansas is in the same boat as Southern Miss.  The Razorbacks are a top 25 team at Bud Walton Arena, but they are not top 100 away from home.

 

Ole Miss beat Alabama last night.  The Rebels have only a slim chance of earning an at-large bid after dropping games to South Carolina and MississippiState.

 

Keep an eye on Iowa.  The Hawkeyes knocked off Illinois last night to move into a tie for 7^th with the Illini.  The Hawkeyes are just a half-game back of 6^th place Minnesota.  They close at home with Nebraska and should win that game to finish the regular season at 9-9 in the league and 20-11 overall.  With wins over Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, plus a non-conference win over rival IowaState, the Hawkeyes would have a very nice resume if they can win their opening round game in the conference tournament.

 

Other Big Games of Note for Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Georgetown at Villanova:  The Hoyas can make a case for a #1-seed if they can win tonight and close out at home with a win over swooning Syracuse.  Villanova will secure an at-large bid with an upset win.  The Wildcats have already slain Marquette, Syracuse, and Louisville at the WellsFargoCenter.

 

Georgia Tech at Miami:  The Hurricanes can clinch the regular season ACC title with a win tonight.  “The U” can still earn a number one seed if they win out.

 

Michigan at Purdue: Watch out for the Boilermakers!  After clobbering Wisconsin on the Badgers’ Senior Day, PU has designs on a 9-9 finish in the league.  They currently stand 7-9, and they host Minnesota Saturday.  Michigan is coming off an emotional win over MichiganState, and they are ripe for an upset tonight.

 

Oklahoma St. at Iowa St.: The Cyclones followed up the heart-breaking loss to Kansas with a blowout loss at Oklahoma, looking like their season had already ended.  They get one more chance to impress the Selection Committee tonight with a home finale against the Cowboys.  If they lose this game, ISU is NIT-bound.

 

North Carolina at Maryland:  The Terps didn’t show up in the game at Chapel Hill, trailing by more than 20 points in the first 15 minutes of the game and committing more than 20 turnovers.  This is a must-win game for UM if they want an at-large bid.  Since dropping a close game at Duke, UNC has won five straight ACC games by an average of 13 points per game.  If they win tonight and drop Duke on Saturday, they will finish in a second-place tie with the Blue Devils.  The ‘Heels are peaking at the right time.

 

Tennessee at Auburn: The Volunteers’ loss at Georgia looked terminal for their at-large hopes, but then all the other competitors lost later that day.  Now, UT has a good shot at moving back into the mix, but the Big Orange must win tonight on the LoveliestVillage on the Plains and then close out with a win at home against Missouri.  The Vols would still need two wins in the conference tournament to state a reasonable case to the Committee.

 

Minnesota at Nebraska: The Gophers need to avoid a March collapse.  Minny closes conference play with road games here and at Purdue.  If they lose both, they finish 8-10 in the league and may move out of the tournament field.

 

Stanford at California: The Cardinal have probably already fallen to the NIT field, while the Golden Bears are looking strong as an at-large team.  If UC wins tonight, the issues here are solved, but if Stanford pulls off the upset, the Cardinal move back to the bottom of the bubble, while Cal has to worry a little bit.

PiRate Ratings Look At The 2012 Presidential Race

The PiRate Ratings step outside the sporting world today to take a look at the 2012 Presidential Election race.  We look at this race in a mechanical manner; in other words, we attempt to handicap this race much like a horse race, using back-tested information as a guide.

 

Our conclusion: The Republican Party is in big trouble at the present time!  When the race began to heat up last summer, it looked like the GOP had as much chance of unseating President Obama as the Democrats had of unseating Herbert Hoover in 1932.  They needed to isolate on the one candidate that could unite the party and come off as the next Ronald Reagan.  Find a great communicator with executive experience that hailed from a Southern state, the Industrial Midwest, or California.

 

Only one Governor from the South decided to run, Rick Perry.  He proved to be not up to the task, and he was finished before the first caucus vote was cast.   Jeb Bush never threw his hat in the ring, and Bobby Jindal peaked four years ago.  The only Republican ex-governor of California was not eligible, and his exit from office left him in a bad scandal anyway. 

 

The Midwest had the ideal candidate, one who would have become a heavy favorite to win in 2012.  Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels chose not to run, citing the desires of his family. 

 

Tim Pawlenty, former governor of Minnesota, briefly entered the race, but he dropped out following the Iowa Straw Poll last summer.  Had he known that almost every candidate that did not fare well in that straw poll rose to the top of the polls at one time, maybe he would have remained in the race long enough to win the Iowa Caucus.  We will never know, and besides, we do not include Minnesota as part of the Industrial Midwest.

 

Note: The Industrial Midwest is merely a descriptive name for a group of states that relied on industry for decades as the chief means of employment.  Almost all industries have now deserted the United States for cheaper foreign labor markets. 

 

Here is the major problem for the GOP.  Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are unelectable for different reasons!  Gingrich is considered a lone wolf, even though he is really one of the global elite.  However, he has enough ego to try to make numerous changes, and that is not supported by the inside elite.  They will not allow him to become President.  Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have no chance of winning the nomination, so we will not consider either in this submission.  Of course in National polls, both candidates are in dead heats with the President, while Obama has a comfortable lead over Gingrich and a considerable lead over the fading Romney.

 

Romney is still the apparent front-runner with a very large chance of winning the nomination, so let us concentrate the rest of this submission on why he cannot beat President Obama in the general election.

 

We at the PiRate Ratings are political junkies.  We have political maps for every Presidential election in US history.  These maps paint an excellent picture of the philosophy and psychology of the American public.

 

If somebody would have had this information in 1802, they could have forewarned President Jefferson of the impending divide in the country.  Most elections from Jefferson through Lincoln showed the great divide between the states; they could have seen the split between the region that would become the Confederate States of America and the region that would stay loyal to the Union.  The upper Atlantic states and New England States voted one way, and the South and West voted another.  Most elections then were decided in the Midwest, where half a dozen large states swayed the elections. 

 

After the Civil War, the South remained solid Democrat, believing that the Republican Party was responsible for Reconstruction, carpetbaggers, and scallywags.  The South remained a solid Democrat voting block for many years.  Then, President Johnson brought forth his Great Society in the mid-1960’s, and with it, his Civil Rights Act turned the South around overnight.  Beginning in 1968, the Democrats were finished in the South.  George Wallace won a handful of Southern states campaigning on a segregationist agenda, but Nixon won the rest.

 

Since 1968, it has been relatively easy to determine the outcome of elections.  The Republicans needed to hold onto their Southern base, winning almost every state from among Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas.  We do not include Florida in this list, because this state has a large number of non-Southerners residing within its borders.  A high number of Northern retirees, many from the Upper Atlantic and New England, and a large number of Hispanics, give Florida a unique position, making it a swing state.

 

The Republicans have two options for winning the White House.  The first option is to take California and its 55 electoral votes, better than 20% of the needed 270 electoral votes to win.  By taking California and the South (not including Florida), that gives a GOP candidate 186 electoral votes.  Add 51 more electoral votes from western states that almost always vote GOP (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma, and this brings the total to 237.

 

From there, only 33 more electoral votes are needed for a GOP victory.  Florida has 29 electoral votes, and if a Republican takes Florida, he only needs a state like Iowa, Colorado, or Indiana to go over the top.

 

The second option for a Republican is to win a majority of the Industrial Midwest.  Look at the riches available in this swing area:  Ohio (18), Indiana (11), Michigan (16), Illinois (20), and Wisconsin (10) add up to 75 electoral votes.  We will add three states to this list that have similarities to this group.  Pennsylvania (20), Missouri (10), and Kentucky (8), bring the total in this area to 113. 

 

So, if the Republican does not carry California and its 55 electoral votes, he can still win by taking half of the Midwest.  Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Wisconsin add up to 57 electoral votes, two more than California.

 

So, how does this apply to Mitt Romney and the race in 2012?  Plenty!  In the entire history of the Republican Party, only two candidates from New England and the Upper Atlantic have ever become President of the United States.  However, and this is big, both candidates were already President when they ran for President.  Calvin Coolidge, from Vermont, was the Vice President when Warren Harding died in office in 1923; he won in 1924.  Theodore Roosevelt, from New York, was the Vice President when William McKinley was assassinated in Buffalo at the World’s Fair in 1901; he won in 1904.

 

Looking at nominees that were not already President, there have been just two elections involving one GOP candidate from the New England/Upper Atlantic area.  Thomas Dewey hailed from New York.  He lost to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944 and Harry Truman in 1948. 

 

In 1944, FDR carried the entire South, as Southerners would not support an Eastern Elitist Republican, when the opposition was an Eastern Elitist Democrat.  In 1948, Dewey won in California, which had half the electoral votes as it does today.  He won in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Indiana.  Truman carried the entire South as well as Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Kentucky.

 

Romney will have major trouble in the South.  He is looked on as an Eastern elitist, a Yankee, a carpetbagger, etc.  His numerous gaffes and flip-flops will hurt him in any swing state, but in the South, words tend to mean a lot more to voters.  Let us take a look at six of those liabilities:

 

1. During an Iowa debate, he stated that he could not have a lawn service that hired illegal aliens continue to work for him because he was running for President.  This infers that had he not chosen to run, he would not have had a problem.

 

2. He stated that he didn’t make all that much money on his speaking engagements, only between a quarter and half million dollars per speech.  A majority of Southern Republican voters believe that a quarter million dollars is “all that much.”

 

3. He likes firing people.  In fact, he repeated how quickly he would fire someone just because that someone came to him with a business idea.  He has not stated a love for hiring people.

 

4. He doesn’t worry about the poor, because there are safety nets for them.  This infers that he supports the current Welfare system, which a majority of GOP voters in the South do not support.

 

5. He has flip-flopped on both abortion and gun rights. 

6. He openly vowed to be as liberal as Ted Kennedy when he ran against Kennedy in a Massachusetts Senatorial race, and he ran away from the Republican philosophy of Ronald Reagan.  That is why the Reagan family has endorsed Gingrich.

 

Any single one of these six facts is enough to harm him greatly all over the country, especially in the crucial Southern states.

 

Now, concerning Romney’s other liability in the South–his Mormon religion:  People in the South may be quiet about this issue, but a great deal of Southern White Protestants will not support him, even against President Obama.  As a Southerner who is not a Protestant, I have personally witnessed 21^st Century religious bigotry.  I am not a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints, and I do not wear my religion on a sleeve.  I don’t advertise my beliefs publicly.  Yet, many Southerners do. 

 

I have heard enough GOP voters talk about how they cannot support a candidate that belongs to a Church that believes their savior returned to New York State and spoke to one man in the 19^th Century.  For many in the South, there is still the stigma of polygamy, even though this has not been the case for over 120 years.  While religious bigotry has no place in the 21^st Century, the 21^st Century Southern conservative voter may decide it still does.

 

The mechanical data does not work out for Romney.  The last Massachusetts Republican that had a chance to become President was Henry Cabot Lodge.  He even made it to the GOP ticket as a Vice Presidential running mate for Richard Nixon in 1960.

 

Cabot Lodge’s political ideology was similar to Romney’s.  A disciple of two of the most influential and elitist families in New England, Cabot Lodge was also a hero.  He was the only United States Senator to resign from office to join the military to fight in World War II.  Many political experts believe Cabot Lodge hurt Nixon’s chances in many states in 1960 and even cost Nixon the election.

 

Let’s take a look at the political map of 2012.  If Romney is the nominee, then barring a major catastrophe, like a total collapse of the Stock Market or a major war that our country appears to be losing, Obama will stand a much better than 50% chance of defeating Romney for reelection.  If the country is thrust into a Mideast war through an enemy provocation, then Obama’s chances will increase all the more.

 

Let’s start our mechanical look by concentrating on the South.  Obama beat John McCain by a score of 365-173.  In 2008, Obama won in North Carolina and Virginia for 28 electoral votes.  He also took the swing state of Florida and its 27 votes (Florida has 29 electoral votes in this election).  McCain needed a sweep in the South, and he could not get it.  Had he swept the South, it would have given him 228 votes, still 42 shy of what he needed.

 

Obama won California and its 55 votes.  McCain, from Arizona, did not offer anything to swing the biggest prize his way.  Had he won California and the three Southern States he lost, he would have won the election.

 

Of course, there is a second avenue for a Republican if he cannot sweep the South and take California.  He must win several states in the Midwest.  Obama won big here in 2008, and he will do well enough in 2012 to win reelection if Romney is the opponent.

 

Obama will win his home state of Illinois and its 20 votes.  He will win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for another 30 votes.  Romney should win Indiana, and he should win Michigan, because the Romney name still means a lot in the Wolverine State.  However, a heavy turnout in Detroit could tilt the state’s 16 votes his way.

 

You would expect Romney to do well in New England, but that is not necessarily the case.  He will lose his home state of Massachusetts, and that speaks volumes.  A little known fact is that when Romney chose not to run for gubernatorial reelection, he did so because he was going to lose by a large amount.  He won in 2002 with a slim plurality of the vote, falling short of 50%.  Had Green Party candidate Jill Stein not run, then Democrat Shannon O’Brien might have won the election.  Romney’s favorable ratings as Governor were never high, and when he chose not to stand for reelection, the favorable percentage was in the 30’s.  He left office as the 48^th most popular governor after his legislation led to much higher taxes.  It is estimated that he raised taxes on many corporations by almost 100%!  He also added a heavy number of fees to run businesses, and he lost a great deal of his Republican base by 2006. 

 

Obama will win Massachusetts; he will also win Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland.  Romney cannot count on his own area for major support.  He may take New Hampshire, and he could still lose there.

 

Let us break down this race into safe Republican and safe Democrat states.

 

We are going to assume that Romney can keep the Southern states McCain won in 2008, but as you read above, this is not a sure thing.  We will give him Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Texas for 103 electoral votes.

 

Romney will carry most of Flyover country as all GOP candidates do.  That gives him another 11 states, but only 54 more electoral votes—Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, and Alaska.  That brings his total to 157 votes in these 19 states.

 

Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana will go for the Republican candidate in this race, regardless of the name of that candidate.  These three bring Romney’s total to 22 states and 181 electoral votes.  We will call this his sure thing states with the caveat that one or two of these states could go against him for the reasons described above.

 

Obama has fewer sure thing states, but they carry more electoral votes.  Start with the West, where he will sweep the Pacific Coast.  California, Oregon, and Washington plus the always Democrat Hawaii gives him four states and 78 electoral votes.

 

In the Midwest, he will carry his home state of Illinois as well as the liberal state of Minnesota.  That increases his totals to six states and 108 electoral votes.

 

We will not give Obama the two Southern states he won in 2008, even though he stands a good chance of taking both Virginia and North Carolina again.  So, his total stays the same.

 

It is in Romney’s own area where Obama will hit his opponent hard.  Give the President Washington, D.C., Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Maine.  That brings his total to 15 states plus DC and 196 electoral votes.

 

The remaining toss-up states are: New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), and Nevada (6).  That adds up to 161 electoral votes.  Obama would need 74 of these electoral votes, while Romney would need 89. 

 

As of today, if we had to call these swing states, we would give Obama New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado.  This adds 82 electoral votes, bringing his total to 278 and securing the victory.

 

We will give Romney Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada.  This adds 79 electoral votes, bringing his total to 260. 

 

We must admit that we gave Romney the benefit of the doubt in several states, where he is not guaranteed to win.  In fact, with his favorable numbers sinking quickly, we believe that 260 is the absolute maximum number of electoral votes he can win.  In all honesty, he could lose 30-40 of these electoral votes.

 

The GOP needs to hope for a brokered convention where they can appeal to Governor Daniels to become the new great compromise.  Daniels can win 300-350 electoral votes by cutting into Obama’s popularity in the Midwest, and he can sweep the South.