PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, December 27, 2022

Home	Visitor	Spread
Texas A&M	Northwestern State	15.9
Notre Dame	Jacksonville	6.4
Texas	Texas A&M-Commerce	27.6
Marquette	Seton Hall	6.9
Texas Tech	South Carolina State	28.2

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, March 24, 2022

Thursday, March 24, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Gonzaga	Arkansas	10.2
Villanova	Michigan	4.0
Duke	Texas Tech	-0.2
Arizona	Houston	1.3

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 20, 2022

Sunday’s Games

Sunday, March 20, 2022
Team	Team	Spread
Illinois	Houston	-3.3
Villanova	Ohio St.	4.4
Duke	Michigan St.	6.5
Wisconsin	Iowa St.	3.8
Texas Tech	Notre Dame	7.3
Auburn	Miami (Fla.)	8.9
Purdue	Texas	2.6
Arizona	TCU	10.3
Xavier	Florida	2.6
SMU	Washington St.	2.7
Vanderbilt	Dayton	2.3
North Texas	Virginia	3.2
Oklahoma	St. Bonaventure	6.7
VMI	UNC Wilmington	0.7
Florida Atlantic	Northern Colorado	5.7
UNC Greensboro	Boston	1.3
Abilene Christian	Troy	3.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Data

Team	O-Eff	D-Eff	SOS	37+ 3pt	OReb%	-45% vs. 2pt	FT Rate 37	R + T New Rate	R+T Old Rate
Illinois	23	30	60.7	36.7	33.4	45.4	31.7	7.7	12.8
Houston	10	11	56.0	34.1	37.8	43.5	28.7	14.3	22.2
Villanova	8	28	61.0	35.9	30.9	48.2	30.5	4.8	11.5
Ohio St.	13	131	60.0	37.3	28.8	46.2	33.5	-1.0	6.0
Duke	7	44	57.6	36.8	31.8	46.9	28.6	4.1	12.7
Michigan St.	38	53	60.8	37.8	30.7	47.9	30.4	3.0	8.5
Wisconsin	49	38	60.1	31.2	25.9	49.9	32.3	3.4	7.3
Iowa St.	151	10	59.7	36.8	28.2	50.7	28.1	1.2	3.8
Texas Tech	65	1	60.8	31.4	33.3	44.3	36.1	9.6	17.5
Notre Dame	29	84	56.8	38.0	22.5	49.3	27.0	-2.5	3.8
Auburn	24	8	59.2	32.0	33.1	42.6	31.6	5.9	12.5
Miami (Fla.)	17	157	57.0	35.3	23.4	53.9	28.8	-5.0	1.3
Purdue	3	100	60.0	39.1	35.2	49.2	36.3	12.1	19.2
Texas	32	13	60.2	32.3	31.8	46.1	32.3	7.2	10.1
Arizona	5	20	58.2	35.4	34.5	41.9	35.1	7.0	17.9
TCU	80	24	60.3	30.4	37.8	47.9	31.2	12.5	16.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Game Analysis

Illinois vs. Houston

This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).

Villanova vs. Ohio St.

This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.

This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.

The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.

Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.

This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.

Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame

If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.

Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)

Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.

Purdue vs. Texas

This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.

Arizona vs. TCU

One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
North Dakota	St. Thomas	-0.9
Dartmouth	Yale	-2.2
Missouri	Tennessee	-12.5
Florida	Arkansas	-0.6
Iowa	Michigan St.	5.6
Northeastern	Charleston	-1.1
Monmouth	Siena	9.2
St. Bonaventure	Rhode Island	7.1
George Washington	Richmond	-6.4
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	2.6
Kent St.	Ball St.	9.6
Akron	Bowling Green	8.1
Miami (O)	Buffalo	-6.5
Western Michigan	Toledo	-15.3
Ohio	Central Michigan	17.6
Texas A&M	Georgia	12.2
Connecticut	Villanova	0.4
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	9.3
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	-4.4
Saint Louis	Saint Joseph’s	11.8
Northwestern	Nebraska	11.2
Kansas	Kansas St.	13.0
Vanderbilt	Alabama	-3.8
Air Force	Fresno St.	-8.7
Boise St.	San Diego St.	2.0
Cal Poly	Cal St. Bakersfield	-1.5
Utah St.	New Mexico	12.1
Nevada	UNLV	0.3

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Fairfield	Manhattan	7.0
Army	Colgate	-7.3
USC Upstate	Presbyterian	1.9
Xavier	St. John’s	8.0
Radford	Campbell	-3.4
Rutgers	Illinois	-5.7
Alabama	Mississippi St.	7.0
Lafayette	Loyola (MD)	-1.1
Holy Cross	Boston U	-8.5
American	Navy	-10.4
Hampton	North Carolina A&T	-3.2
Gardner-Webb	Winthrop	4.0
Charleston Southern	UNC Asheville	-9.7
Louisville	Miami (Fla.)	-0.9
Notre Dame	Boston College	11.1
New Hampshire	Vermont	-9.5
Maryland Baltimore Co.	Stony Brook	2.3
NJIT	UMass Lowell	-3.5
Hartford	Maine	10.4
Binghamton	Albany	0.7
Stetson	Jacksonville	-3.1
Florida Gulf Coast	Kennesaw St.	3.9
St. Bonaventure	Massachusetts	10.3
Saint Joseph’s	George Mason	-0.3
Western Carolina	Furman	-12.7
Mercer	East Tennessee St.	1.5
The Citadel	Wofford	-5.4
LSU	Georgia	19.0
Duquesne	George Washington	3.1
Stephen F. Austin	Chicago St.	19.1
Eastern Kentucky	North Alabama	6.1
Saint Louis	La Salle	16.4
Marquette	Georgetown	15.5
Tarleton	Utah Valley	-2.5
UT Rio Grande Valley	Seattle	-6.7
North Carolina	Pittsburgh	14.4
Lipscomb	Jacksonville St.	-5.1
Central Arkansas	Bellarmine	-7.1
Valparaiso	Loyola (Chi.)	-11.0
Drake	Evansville	15.6
Connecticut	Seton Hall	4.9
Auburn	Vanderbilt	14.6
Northwestern	Purdue	-5.3
Texas Tech	Baylor	0.0
Temple	SMU	-4.2
UT Martin	Morehead St.	-9.8
New Mexico St.	Dixie St.	14.8
California Baptist	Grand Canyon	-4.7
Air Force	Boise St.	-11.7
Fresno St.	UNLV	5.7
Pepperdine	Gonzaga	-29.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 9, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Cornell	Columbia	15.2
UNC Asheville	Hampton	10.5
Florida	Georgia	15.2
SMU	Houston	-7.4
Rutgers	Ohio St.	-4.1
Seton Hall	Xavier	2.6
Harvard	Yale	-0.1
Boston U	Army	8.2
Holy Cross	Loyola (MD)	-4.9
South Florida	Cincinnati	-8.7
Colgate	Lehigh	14.1
Bucknell	American	3.0
Winthrop	Radford	9.6
Presbyterian	High Point	2.0
North Carolina A&T	Charleston Southern	10.2
Campbell	Gardner-Webb	0.8
NC St.	Wake Forest	-3.9
Miami (Fla.)	Georgia Tech	8.8
Notre Dame	Louisville	7.5
New Hampshire	NJIT	7.3
Stony Brook	UMass Lowell	3.2
Albany	Maine	13.6
Maryland Baltimore Co.	Hartford	6.6
Vermont	Binghamton	16.2
North Florida	Bellarmine	-1.7
Jacksonville	Eastern Kentucky	3.5
Youngstown St.	Oakland	-4.2
Robert Morris	Detroit	-2.9
Massachusetts	George Washington	8.1
George Mason	Richmond	-0.7
Dayton	Duquesne	15.0
Davidson	Saint Joseph’s	11.1
Chattanooga	Western Carolina	17.4
Fairfield	Quinnipiac	6.0
Delaware St.	Maryland-Eastern Shore	-7.4
Stetson	Jacksonville St.	-7.2
Kennesaw St.	Central Arkansas	11.4
Florida Gulf Coast	North Alabama	6.7
Kansas St.	Baylor	-6.9
Memphis	Tulane	9.8
Green Bay	Wright St.	-7.4
Milwaukee	Northern Kentucky	-2.4
Northern Iowa	Southern Illinois	5.8
Illinois St.	Valparaiso	3.3
Drake	Missouri St.	-0.2
Samford	Wofford	-4.5
Mississippi	Alabama	-5.4
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	-3.7
Mississippi St.	Tennessee	-3.6
DePaul	Georgetown	9.4
Florida St.	Pittsburgh	10.7
Bradley	Loyola (Chi.)	-3.5
Nebraska	Minnesota	-2.8
Oregon St.	California	-0.4
San Jose St.	San Diego St.	-15.9

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Sunday, March 21, 2021

Favorite	Underdog	Spread
Baylor	Wisconsin	5.4
Villanova	North Texas	5.7
Arkansas	Texas Tech	1.9
Florida	Oral Roberts	9.9
Illinois	Loyola (Chi.)	6.2
Oklahoma St.	Oregon St.	5.6
West Virginia	Syracuse	2.8
Houston	Rutgers	7.1

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 11, 2020

Date	3/11/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Dayton	Baylor
2	San Diego St.	Florida St.	Villanova	Creighton
3	Duke	Kentucky	Seton Hall	Michigan St.
4	Maryland	Louisville	Oregon	Wisconsin
5	Ohio St.	Auburn	Butler	BYU
6	West Virginia	Iowa	Penn St.	Virginia
7	Illinois	Colorado	Michigan	Arizona
8	Houston	Providence	LSU	Saint Mary’s
9	USC	Marquette	Oklahoma	Rutgers
10	Arizona St.	Florida	Indiana	Utah St.
11	E. Tennessee St.	Stanford	Xavier	Wichita St.	Texas Tech
12	Yale	Liberty	S. F. Austin	Richmond	UCLA
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	Bradley	Belmont	Hofstra	Colgate
15	UC-Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock	E. Washington
16	N. Kentucky	Winthrop	Siena	Prairie View	Robert Morris	N. C.  A&T

 

Last Four Byes:  Florida, Indiana, Stanford, and Xavier

Last Four IN: Wichita St., Texas Tech, Richmond, and UCLA

First Four OUT: North Carolina St., Cincinnati, Texas, and Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: Memphis, Northern Iowa, Purdue, and Saint Louis

 

Note:  Starting with today’s Bracketology and continuing for our final two Bracketology predictions (Friday and Sunday), our seed lines now reflect our beliefs that the NCAA Selection Committee will have some political beliefs that alter seed lines.  For instance, we moved Virginia up one seed strictly because they are the defending champions, and we believe some members on the Selection Committee will lobby on their behalf to be moved higher up.  

We are closely monitoring Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference.  Any blip that comes DU’s way might move the Flyers down to the 2-seed line if an elite team like Duke, Michigan St., or Kentucky romps through their conference tournament.

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 4, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Rhode Island	Massachusetts	15.7
Boston College	Duke	-17.2
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	3.2
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	7.0
DePaul	Xavier	0.8
Maryland	Rutgers	7.4
Michigan	Ohio St.	1.1
Michigan St.	Penn St.	7.9
Fairfield	Monmouth	0.1
Kent St.	Ball St.	3.5
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	-1.7
Miami (O)	Western Michigan	4.3
Toledo	Northern Illinois	6.0
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	1.5
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	-0.8
Wyoming	Boise St.	-10.7
Nevada	Air Force	10.4
Arkansas	Auburn	3.4
Alabama	Tennessee	6.1
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	4.7
Texas A&M	Missouri	-0.9

 

Tuesday’s Best TV Games

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	FS1	Maryland	Rutgers
7:00 PM	SECN	Arkansas	Auburn
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Michigan	Ohio St.
7:00 PM	ESPNU	Alabama	Tennessee
8:00 PM	BTN	Michigan St.	Penn St.
9:00 PM	ESPN	Kentucky	Mississippi St.
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Texas Tech	Oklahoma

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 21, 2020

College Basketball Teams Playing Tuesday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Villanova	Butler	1.1
Kansas	Kansas St.	17.5
Kentucky	Georgia	10.0
South Florida	Wichita St.	-5.0
Northwestern	Maryland	-8.6
Purdue	Illinois	5.0
Kent St.	Northern Illinois	8.5
Ohio	Toledo	-3.6
Bowling Green	Eastern Michigan	7.2
Buffalo	Western Michigan	9.1
LSU	Florida	2.9
Miami (O)	Akron	-6.6
TCU	Texas Tech	-3.1
Clemson	Wake Forest	6.2
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	4.7
Duke	Miami	19.2
Wisconsin	Nebraska	12.9
Missouri	Texas A&M	10.2
Marquette	St. John’s	8.5
Saint Joseph’s	VCU	-12.2
Tennessee	Ole Miss	7.7
New Mexico	San Jose St.	14.7
San Diego St.	Wyoming	26.2
Utah St.	Air Force	12.6