The Pi-Rate Ratings

July 20, 2021

Adjusting Teams Due To The Transfer Portal

The Transfer Portal Giveth And Taketh Away

Like a lord of the gridiron, the new transfer portal has wreaked havoc on the overall landscape of college football.  We have recently completed updating the effect on the PiRate Ratings for all the transfers that have both left a former school and chosen a new destination for 2021.  Among those that have entered the transfer portal, there are a handful of point spread-moving talents that have not officially chosen a new school.  A trio of what we call 15+ talents on a rating scale of 0-20 are leaning to schools but have yet to officially sign.  These players will affect our ratings when they do sign.

The PiRate Ratings adjusted the talent levels of the teams by considering the players entering the Transfer Portal like they were graduating seniors.  As for the entry to a new team, the field had to be taken on a case by case basis.  The players that played 1 to 4 games last year are classified as redshirt players and rated as such.  There are others that redshirted without playing any games last year, and they are rated a little differently than the 1-4 game players.  We take these 0-game players, and if they rate 15 or above in talent, they become the equivalent of a hot freshman expected to contribute immediately, like Trevor Lawrence or Hershel Walker.

For the rest of the group of experienced college players, we consider these as regular talent added at what we consider full strength.  If a defensive end that started for a Power Conference team last year or the year before becomes a starter at a new Power Conference team, the new team is graded like the new player is a returning starter, which is optimal for the team.  If the Power Conference starter moves to a Group of 5 team, there is a bonus score if that player is expected to be the starter.

All transfers are not only rated for their talent, but there is a positional adjustment as well.  The starting QB from a Power 5 team is a little more important than the starting punter.  We use the accepted advanced metric positional hierarchy used in pro football and put our own stamp on it;  the hierarchy goes:

  1. Quarterback
  2. Top Outside Pass Rusher (DE or OLB)
  3. Blind-side Tackle (Left tackle for Right-hand QB)
  4. Top Cover Cornerback
  5. #1 Wide Receiver
  6. Defensive Tackle
  7. Running Back
  8. #2 Outside Pass Rusher (DE or OLB)
  9. Middle/Inside Linebacker
  10. Tight End
  11. Free Safety
  12. Weakside Linebacker (or Nickel Back)
  13. Right Tackle (or LT for left-handed QB)
  14. #2 Cornerback
  15. Right Guard
  16. #2 Wide Receiver
  17. Center
  18. Strong Safety
  19. Strongside Linebacker
  20. Left Guard
  21. Nose Tackle
  22. #3 Wide Receiver
  23. Kicker
  24. Punter
  25. Return Specialist

It isn’t exactly cut and dry, as we have to analyze each team to see if their style of play is a pro-style.  For teams that run the option, either from the spread or with a QB under center, the positional adjustment is a bit different.  What it adds up to is a lot of extra work, but without this work, the preseason power ratings would be too inaccurate to be useful.  

Let’s look at an example of a couple of teams that have seen their historical preseason power rating altered by the Transfer Portal.  

The Auburn Tigers have a new coaching staff with Bryan Harsin coming in from Boise State.  Harsin hired two gems as his coordinators, both with extensive SEC experience.  Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo and Defensive Coordinator Derek Mason are like having two extra head coaches on staff, and this generates a movement in the preseason rating.  But, we must also count the positives that former head coach Gus Malzahn and Kevin Steele brought to Auburn and make a coaching adjustment score from the January Citrus Bowl to the start of this season.  

Now, take a look at the key transfers for Auburn as the 2021 season nears.  Wide receiver Hal Presley left for Baylor.  He’s a redshirt freshman who played 0 games last year.  

Big Cat Bryant had three QB sacks, an interception, a couple of QB hurries, and 17 tackles at his defensive tackle position.  His leaving to join Malzahn at Central Florida is a bigger loss than Presley as it applies to week 1 of the 2021 season.  

Daquan Newkirk is a senior for the second year and put up similar numbers to Bryant, while being able to play both defensive tackle and defensive end.  His loss to SEC rival Florida hurts the Tigers a tad more.  

Running back D.J. Williams was only Auburn’s third option last year, but he has some worth.  If you follow the game rabidly like we do, you might remember Williams putting a hurt on #1 LSU two years ago, as his 150+ total yards led to Auburn almost knocking off the eventual national champion.  Florida State will get more out of him than Auburn would this year.

Safety Chris Thompson, Jr. was a freshman who saw action in enough games to be considered a sophomore in experience, but he will still be a freshman at his new school, USC.  Thompson rates as a 16 on our talent scale, so he counts like adding a Trevor Lawrence or Hershel Walker freshman to the Trojans.

These five players are the five that can actually move a team’s rating by more than 0.3 points, and together, the quintet reduces Auburn’s overall positional-adjusted talent score by 177 basis points.

Now let’s look at the key players that Auburn gained through the Portal.  We count seven players as being talented enough to improve the War Eagles’ point spread by 0.3 or more points.

They picked up a talented all-star safety from FCS Southeast Missouri in Bydarrius Knighten, who has NFL potential and needs to showcase his talents on the big stage.

Knighten will be joined by a former SEC starting safety in Vanderbilt’s Donovan Kaufman.  Kaufman played just two games in 2020 before a medical issue forced the freshman’s season to end.  He reunites with his former coach and should compete for a starting job at safety and as a return specialist.  Having two safeties with this amount of talent come on board awards a little bonus for the defensive backfield.

We aren’t done with the secondary just yet.  The best transfer of the defensive backfield is former West Virginia starting cornerback Dreshun Miller, a graduate 5th year player.  He started multiple games inside Big 12 play as well as having an excellent career at Eastern Arizona Junior College.

Staying on the defensive side, Auburn adds Kansas defensive end Marcus Harris.  Harris started multiple games for the Jayhawks last year and in 8 games, he had 7 ½ tackles for loss.  

Now, on the offensive side of the ball, there are a lot of specialized calculations to make because Auburn picked up a quarterback with starting experience in the SEC.  T.J. Finley comes to the Plains from LSU, where he started after Myles Brennan was lost for the year.  However, Auburn still has two-year regular Bo Nix as their expected starter just before August practices commence.  There should be a heated race for the starting job in the Bobo offense, but Nix will most likely be taking the snaps when Auburn hosts Akron on September 4.  Finley’s contribution might be limited, but on the other hand, if he wins the battle to start, he might be the most significant addition to the team.  It leaves us having to consider many possibilities before arriving at a score for Finley.

Redshirt freshman Jordan Ingram returns to the state where he was a star running back in high school after not seeing action at Central Michigan last year.  Ingram is not expected to see a great deal of action with Auburn’s top two running backs returning, but he’s talented enough to make a positive contribution.

Finally, there is journeyman wide receiver Demetris Robertson.  He’s the most difficult player in the entire Portal to grade.  Starting from the beginning, Robertson was a 5-star recruit and the top receiver in his recruiting class when he committed to Alabama as a highschool senior.  He ended up signing with California and shredded the Pac-12 as a true freshman.  He suffered an injury as a sophomore and played in just two games.  He then transferred to Georgia, where he was somewhat of a disappointment the last two seasons.  He was expected to be a fourth receiver for the Bulldogs before transferring to Auburn two weeks ago.  There’s another big issue though; he’s facing multiple felony charges, which may be why he entered the Portal near the deadline, because University of Georgia rules may have forced his ineligibility.  If Robertson can play a full season for Auburn, he will contribute to the Bobo offense.  But, he may never get a chance to play a game!  That’s a large subset of possibilities to calculate into the preseason equation.

All told, the incoming players on Auburn’s Transfer Portal list sum to 258 basis points with the defensive backfield bonus included.  Factor in the loss of 177 basis points from the players transferring out, and you get a surplus of 81 basis points improvement through the transfer portal.  Using our talent algorithm, Auburn expects to gain 4.1 power rating points in this area. 

For example number two, let’s inspect Oklahoma without delving into all the plot twists we showed you with Auburn.

Oklahoma lost seven players that will negatively affect their talent score by enough points to matter.  Additionally, at two positions, they lost multiple players to the Portal.  Safety Brendan Radley-Hiles had 115 career tackles in his time in Norman, while hybrid safety/linebacker Robert Barnes took four years of experience to Colorado.  Wide Receiver Jalin Conyers did not play as a freshman but he has NFL potential at Wide Receiver or Tight End and might eventually cost Oklahoma more down the road than they will in September of this year.  Losing wide receiver Charleston Rambo will hurt the Sooners in week one. Not affecting Oklahoma at all for 2021 is former tight end Grant Calcaterra, who retired from football at the end of 2019 after multiple concussions, but he un-retired and transferred to Auburn before the coaching change saw him transfer again to SMU.

The Sooners lost a 4-star tackle to Louisiana-Monroe in Stacey Wilkins.  Wilkins has not played for the Sooners, and his loss will be felt down the road, but it will be just the minimum to matter in 2021.  

Finally, there is quarterback Tanner Mordecai.  The fourth year sophomore was going to be a spectator watching All-American Spencer Rattler lead the Sooners, so Mordecai joined Calcaterra at SMU.  This has potential to affect Oklahoma should Rattler suffer an injury.  The #2 QB at a passing school is as important as the #2, #3, and #4 running backs at a running school.

The total loss in basis points for Oklahoma is 272, which is enough to affect the outcome of a game or two before we look at who the Sooners picked up.  The five players that transferred into Norman are the best quintet in the nation.  Former Tennessee running back Eric Gray and former LSU running back Kevontre Bradford, who has speed in the Chris Johnson CJ2K range, gives the Sooners a national top five running back corps when you add former starter Kennedy Brooks.  The Sooners’ running game combined with Rattler’s passing ability into a possible 45-points per game offense.

There is one more offensive stalwart to add to the mix, as former 5-star tackle recruit Wanya Morris started for two years at Tennessee and should step in and start at the all-important blind-side tackle.  Oklahoma’s potential to average 45 ppg may also come with consistency.

The defense added safety Key Lawrence, the third former Tennessee Vol to matriculate to Oklahoma.  Lawrence saw considerable action on defense and special teams as a true freshman last year.  He will do so for Oklahoma in 2021.

All told, the Sooners gain 200 basis points from incoming transfers, and combining it with the 272 lost, the net change is -72 basis points on transfers alone.  This equals about 3.9 points lost in power rating.

Some of the teams expected to profit the most off the Transfer portal in 2021 include: Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, Miami (Fla.), Penn State, SMU, South Carolina, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC,   Teams that lost considerable talent include: Clemson, Florida State, LSU, Memphis, Tennessee, and Texas.

This adjustment makes up just one part of a multiple part adjustment to the power ratings for each of the 130 FBS teams.  In the case of Clemson losing 245 basis points of talent, fear not for the Tigers.  They still have more than enough talent and added enough from past recruiting classes to make it back to the College Football Playoffs in 2021-2022.

December 11, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 11-14, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:12 am

Picking Games That Will Actually Be Played Harder Than Picking Winners

We moved this feature from Thursday to Friday beginning last week, in hopes that we would stop issuing selections only to have them be cancelled later in the day when games in our parlays and teasers were virus victims. So, what happened last week? Literally five minutes after we posted our selections, our number one selection as far as our confidence in thinking it would be a winner, was cancelled.

We cannot possibly send this out an hour before the Noon Eastern kickoffs, so Friday morning is about as late as we can release this weekly feature. Maybe, we should try to predict who will cancel in the final 24 hours before kickoff?

We were quite hesitant to use Tennessee and Vanderbilt in our selections this week, because the Commodores’ roster looks like a retail store about five weeks after they have begun to liquidate with a “going out of business” sale. They have 44 players remaining on the team, but they have just one defensive end left on the roster, and two real linebackers. They have been forced to use small defensive backs at linebacker and offensive linemen in the defensive line. One of the healthy defensive backs, a true freshman and one of the very few 4-star recruits suffered the tragic loss of his mother and has been left with three siblings that he will now become their legal guardian. He’s all of 18 years old.

If you want to contribute something to this family facing a tragic loss of having both father and mother pass away, the four teenage kids could use a little Holiday Season support. For what it’s worth, the Vanderbilt freshman, DeRickey Wright, is not only on athletic scholarship at Vanderbilt, he is on academic scholarship. His three sisters are aged 16, 14, and 10. A Go Fund Me account has been set up to help the family. Rather than ask you not to use our selections here as real betting advice, we ask you to consider donating a little to help this family in their worst time of grief.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/j3m97-wright-family

This Week’s Selections

1. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Arizona St.Arizona-0.5
GeorgiaMissouri-3
NebraskaMinnesota-0.5
2. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Ball St.Western Mich.+8
ToledoCentral Mich.-1
TroyCoastal Carolina+23.5
3. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
North CarolinaMiami (Fla.)+13
TennesseeVanderbilt-5.5
Boise St.Wyoming-1
4. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
FloridaLSU-13
AuburnMississippi St.+3.5
USCUCLA+7.5
5. Money Line Parlay @+131.55
Must WinOpponentOdds
ArmyNavy
Virginia TechVirginia+131.55
6. Money Line Parlay @ +160
Must WinOpponentOdds
UtahColorado
NorthwesternIllinois+160
7. NFL 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
ChicagoHouston+11.5
N.Y. GiantsArizona+12.5
DetroitGreen Bay+17.5

November 24, 2020

This Week’s College Football TV Schedule

Like this is going to be accurate in 24 hours when the games begin to be cancelled or postponed!

Update–We were correct. UAB-Southern Miss. has been cancelled & more are coming in as this is typed.

Thursday, November 26
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitorComment
2:00 PMCBSSNAir ForceColorado St.Better than watching the Lions game
7:00 PMFS1Utah St.New MexicoBattle of winless teams–watch NFL game

Friday, November 27
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitorComment
12:00 PMABCTexasIowa St.Must watch–B12 Championship Game implications
12:30 PMCBSSNUABSouthern Miss.Best in the CUSA West vs. Worst
1:00 PMFOXIowaNebraskaScott Frost may be frozen out of Lincoln
3:30 PMABCNorth CarolinaNotre DameKeep that TV on ABC–UNC can score points
3:30 PMESPNSouth FloridaCentral FloridaNot the balanced rivalry it once was
4:00 PMFOXCaliforniaStanfordHave to wonder if David Shaw is on a hot seat at Stanford
4:00 PMFS1UNLVWyomingProbably the best 4 PM game but not much
4:00 PMCBSSNEastern Mich.Central Mich.Not much reason to watch
7:30 PMESPNOregon St.OregonNot the Civil War any more, but Beavers may ambush OU

Saturday, November 28
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitorComment
12:00 PMABCMichiganPenn St.Disappointment Bowl
12:00 PMFOXOklahoma St.Texas TechCowboys have to win out to make B12 title game
12:00 PMESPNFloridaKentuckyAlabama beat UK by 60. Can UF win by 50?
12:00 PMESPN2IndianaMarylandWill Hoosiers rebound or act like all was lost last week
12:00 PMFS1IllinoisOhio St.Cocky Illini may keep this close for 10 minutes
12:00 PMESPNUHoustonTulsaWe’re old enough to remember 1968–100 to 6
12:00 PMCBSSNBuffaloKent St.Best Noon Game of the Day!
12:00 PMACCNSyracuseNC St.Dino Babers is probably getting pink-slipped at SU
12:00 PMSECNMissouriVanderbiltRescheduled Game–Mizzou looking for big revenge
2:00 PMBTNWisconsinMinnesotaPaul Bunyan’s Axe should return to Madison
3:30 PMABCUSCColoradoPac-12 South Flag on the line–both teams undefeated
3:30 PMCBSAlabamaAuburnCan Tigers make Iron Bowl interesting? We doubt it.
3:30 PMESPNClemsonPittsburghWe think this could be the interesting 3:30 game.
3:30 PMESPN2Michigan St.NorthwesternWouldn’t be shocked if this game goes Under 30.
4:00 PMFOXBoise St.San Jose St.Brent Brennan national audition for P5 promotion
4:00 PMFS1PurdueRutgersTwo heartbroken teams from last week
4:00 PMESPNUTempleCincinnatiCinti has to win by 40+ or no chance at playoffs
4:00 PMACCNBoston CollegeLouisvilleWinner most likely going bowling if they aren’t cancelled
4:00 PMSECNOle MissMississippi St.Interesting Egg Bowl, please no raising of legs this year
7:00 PMESPNTexas A&MLSUAggies need to pour it on to impress Committee
7:00 PMESPN2BaylorKansas St.Another disappointment matchup
7:00 PMCBSSNNavyMemphisInteresting offensive shootout but not important
7:00 PMFSNGeorgia TechDukeDuke more concerned about basketball now
7:30 PMABCWest VirginiaOklahomaWVU normally has big home advantage in November
7:30 PMSECNSouth CarolinaGeorgiaFormer UGA QB coaching against Alma Mater
8:00 PMFOXUCLAArizonaKevin Sumlin can start reading want ads
8:00 PMFS1KansasTCUMore entertaining only versus a test pattern
8:00 PMESPNUAppalachian St.TroyNot what this game was in recent years
8:00 PMACCNFlorida St.VirginiaCavs positioning for bowl

November 22, 2020

PiRate Ratings–College Football For November 26-28, 2020

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:56 am

The Dysfunctional Rivalry Week

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday, November 26
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Air ForceColorado St.12.011.911.9
Utah St.New Mexico3.01.72.8
Friday, November 27
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
TexasIowa St.-0.1-0.5-0.3
LibertyU Mass39.335.442.7
UABSouthern Miss.16.416.516.6
IowaNebraska15.215.815.9
North CarolinaNotre Dame-6.2-5.5-5.3
USFUCF-26.0-27.5-28.6
Eastern Mich.Central Mich.-12.1-10.4-12.3
UNLVWyoming-13.1-13.1-14.5
CaliforniaStanford2.44.62.9
Oregon St.Oregon-15.2-13.5-16.0
Fresno St.San Diego St.-1.3-1.7-1.9
Washington St.Washington-3.5-3.5-3.4
Saturday, November 28
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
IllinoisOhio St.-25.0-24.5-26.2
ClemsonPittsburgh22.321.924.0
TempleCincinnati-29.8-29.6-31.5
IndianaMaryland23.524.226.8
Oklahoma St.Texas Tech15.816.015.0
West VirginiaOklahoma-12.6-12.5-12.7
Michigan St.Northwestern-14.1-14.7-16.5
USCColorado19.515.820.0
HoustonTulsa1.01.11.5
Boise St.San Jose St.14.212.213.8
Arizona St. Utah2.42.01.5
UCLAArizona6.97.56.5
Georgia TechDuke-2.8-3.7-3.2
Florida St.Virginia-7.8-9.2-8.8
SyracuseNC St.-11.2-10.4-11.4
BaylorKansas St.3.63.82.8
MichiganPenn St.-2.1-1.7-1.3
Boston CollegeLouisville-2.5-2.1-1.3
NavyMemphis-11.0-11.2-11.3
FloridaKentucky16.916.616.8
MissouriVanderbilt15.615.917.4
East CarolinaSMU-7.4-7.4-8.0
Florida Intl.Louisiana Tech1.80.71.3
Georgia St.Georgia Southern-0.4-1.0-0.4
Western Mich.N. Illinois16.116.817.2
OhioBowling Green24.023.228.5
BuffaloKent St.8.810.09.9
ToledoBall St.1.13.31.2
AkronMiami (O)-21.6-18.0-22.5
RiceUTEP19.214.918.5
Middle Tenn.Fla. Atlantic-4.8-5.7-5.6
WisconsinMinnesota20.317.920.0
Texas St.Coastal Carolina-21.0-21.0-22.6
UL-MonroeLouisiana-29.2-28.6-29.6
UTSANorth Texas5.25.05.2
Arkansas St.South Alabama6.05.75.7
AlabamaAuburn19.221.421.5
Ole MissMiss. State5.75.25.1
PurdueRutgers8.39.910.1
Charlotte (now Tues.)Western Ky.-4.0-4.2-3.8
Texas A&MLSU6.47.25.5
South CarolinaGeorgia-14.2-14.7-15.3
VanderbiltTennessee-13.1-12.9-13.6
KansasTCU-25.4-24.0-26.8
Appalachian St.Troy12.911.112.9
HawaiiNevada0.3-0.8-1.6

Added Games

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
WashingtonUtah5.54.45.4
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
ColoradoSan Diego St.3.53.41.2

Games Cancelled or Postponed This Week

Air Force vs. Colorado St.

Fresno St. vs. San Diego St.

Washington vs. Washington St.

Note: Washington now hosts Utah

Missouri vs. Arkansas

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt

Note: Missouri now hosts Vanderbilt

UAB vs. Southern Miss.

Arizona St. vs. Utah

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin

Houston vs. Tulsa

Temple vs. Cincinnati

Oklahoma vs. West Virginia

USC vs. Colorado

Middle Tennessee vs. Florida Atlantic

Florida St. vs. Virginia

Boise St. vs. San Jose St.

Rice vs. UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Alabama134.3135.4136.6135.4SEC-W
2Ohio St.131.2130.1133.4131.6BTen-E
3Clemson126.3126.9128.3127.2ACC
4Wisconsin124.5122.6125.7124.3BTen-W
5Florida123.2122.8124.0123.3SEC-E
6Notre Dame123.4122.9123.3123.2ACC
7Oklahoma122.1121.7122.6122.2B12
8Georgia120.2119.1120.7120.0SEC-E
9Texas A&M119.7119.7120.0119.8SEC-W
10Cincinnati119.4118.9119.6119.3AAC
11Iowa117.6117.4119.5118.2BTen-W
12Oregon118.6117.0118.4118.0P12-N
13Indiana116.2116.8118.9117.3BTen-E
14Iowa St.116.8116.0117.0116.6B12
15Auburn116.6115.5116.6116.2SEC-W
16BYU115.7115.5116.2115.8Ind.
17U S C117.1114.3115.8115.8P12-S
18N. Carolina115.2115.5116.0115.6ACC
19L S U115.3114.4116.5115.4SEC-W
20Northwestern113.1113.3115.9114.1BTen-W
21Texas114.2113.0114.1113.8B12
22UCF112.9113.0113.6113.2AAC
23Oklahoma St.112.8111.8112.2112.3B12
24Washington110.7109.4111.4110.5P12-N
25Penn St.110.8109.4111.0110.4BTen-E
26Miami (Fla.)109.4111.4109.8110.2ACC
27Kentucky108.3108.2109.2108.6SEC-E
28Ole Miss108.9107.8108.9108.5SEC-W
29Louisville107.9107.9107.4107.7ACC
30Utah107.2107.0108.0107.4P12-S
31Arizona St.107.6107.1107.6107.4P12-S
32Boise St.107.4107.4107.1107.3MWC-M
33W. Virginia107.0106.8107.4107.1B12
34Pittsburgh106.5107.5106.8106.9ACC
35Minnesota106.2106.7107.6106.8BTen-W
36Michigan106.6105.7107.7106.7BTen-E
37Purdue105.9106.4107.1106.5BTen-W
38Virginia106.0106.4106.5106.3ACC
39T C U106.6104.6106.5105.9B12
40Missouri105.6105.4106.8105.9SEC-E
41Tennessee106.1105.4106.0105.8SEC-E
42U C L A106.4105.3105.0105.6P12-S
43Washington St.105.6104.4106.5105.5P12-N
44Baylor105.8105.2105.3105.4B12
45Memphis106.3105.1104.8105.4AAC
46Coastal Car.104.8105.4105.6105.3SUN-E
47Wake Forest104.2105.0105.0104.8ACC
48Miss. St.104.7104.1105.3104.7SEC-W
49Nebraska104.4103.6105.5104.5BTen-W
50Illinois104.2103.6105.2104.3BTen-W
51California104.3104.2103.9104.1P12-N
52Kansas St.104.2103.4104.5104.0B12
53Arkansas103.6104.2103.5103.8SEC-W
54Boston Coll.103.4103.7104.1103.7ACC
55S. Carolina104.0102.4103.4103.3SEC-E
56Virginia Tech102.4103.0103.3102.9ACC
57Tulane102.7102.7102.2102.5AAC
58Marshall102.6102.9102.2102.5CUSA-E
59Tulsa103.5102.0101.9102.4AAC
60Louisiana102.8102.3102.0102.4SUN-W
61SMU102.3101.9101.6102.0AAC
62NC State101.5102.0102.0101.8ACC
63Stanford102.9100.6101.9101.8P12-N
64Houston102.5101.1101.4101.7AAC
65Oregon St.101.8102.0100.9101.6P12-N
66Buffalo100.6101.3101.3101.1MAC-E
67Appal. St.101.2100.5101.3101.0SUN-E
68Air Force100.8101.5100.7101.0MWC-M
69Liberty99.5101.9100.7100.7Ind.
70Arizona101.499.7100.6100.6P12-S
71Colorado100.1101.198.399.8P12-S
72San Diego St.98.699.799.199.1MWC-W
73Rutgers99.698.599.099.0BTen-E
74Texas Tech99.097.899.298.7B12
75Duke97.998.097.297.7ACC
76Michigan St.97.096.697.497.0BTen-E
77Wyoming96.297.496.996.8MWC-M
78San Jose St.95.897.695.896.4MWC-W
79Florida St.96.795.896.396.3ACC
80Nevada95.596.596.496.2MWC-W
81Western Mich.95.097.096.396.1MAC-W
82Fresno St.95.896.595.796.0MWC-W
83U A B95.596.094.995.5CUSA-W
84Central Mich.94.995.095.395.1MAC-W
85Maryland94.794.694.194.5BTen-E
86Kent St.93.893.393.493.5MAC-E
87Ohio92.793.393.793.2MAC-E
88Georgia Tech93.592.892.693.0ACC
89E. Carolina93.493.192.192.9AAC
90Army92.393.892.292.8Ind.
91Georgia Sou.92.493.292.792.8SUN-E
92Navy93.892.491.992.7AAC
93Hawaii92.892.891.992.5MWC-W
94Toledo91.893.291.692.2MAC-W
95Ball St.92.191.491.991.8MAC-W
96Vanderbilt92.091.491.491.6SEC-E
97Georgia St.91.091.291.391.2SUN-E
98Miami (O)91.690.491.291.0MAC-E
99Troy90.391.490.490.7SUN-E
100W. Kentucky90.390.790.090.3CUSA-E
101Colorado St.89.890.689.890.1MWC-M
102Fla. Atlantic88.789.989.689.4CUSA-E
103Syracuse88.890.189.189.4ACC
104Arkansas St.87.588.187.087.5SUN-W
105Temple88.187.886.587.5AAC
106La. Tech85.686.585.786.0CUSA-W
107Florida Int’l.85.985.785.585.7CUSA-E
108Charlotte84.885.084.784.9CUSA-E
109Rice85.883.884.984.8CUSA-W
110USF86.084.584.084.8AAC
111Utah St.84.483.983.483.9MWC-M
112S. Alabama83.083.982.983.3SUN-W
113New Mexico83.083.782.082.9MWC-M
114Middle Tenn.82.482.782.582.5CUSA-E
115Texas St.82.382.981.682.3SUN-W
116U T S A82.082.382.082.1CUSA-W
117Eastern Mich.81.383.181.682.0MAC-W
118U N L V81.182.380.481.2MWC-W
119N. Illinois80.481.780.680.9MAC-W
120Southern Miss.80.781.079.880.5CUSA-W
121Kansas79.779.178.279.0B12
122North Texas78.378.778.378.5CUSA-W
123UL-Monroe72.172.270.971.7SUN-W
124Bowling Green70.271.666.869.5MAC-E
125Akron68.570.967.268.9MAC-E
126U T E P68.070.467.968.8CUSA-W
127Mass.62.268.560.063.6Ind.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgAACOverall
Cincinnati119.4118.9119.6119.36-08-0
UCF112.9113.0113.6113.24-35-3
Memphis106.3105.1104.8105.43-25-2
Tulane102.7102.7102.2102.52-55-5
Tulsa103.5102.0101.9102.45-05-1
SMU102.3101.9101.6102.04-27-2
Houston102.5101.1101.4101.73-23-3
E. Carolina93.493.192.192.92-42-6
Navy93.892.491.992.73-23-4
Temple88.187.886.587.51-61-6
USF86.084.584.084.80-61-7
AAC Avg.101.0100.2100.0100.4


Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgACCOverall
Clemson126.3126.9128.3127.26-17-1
Notre Dame123.4122.9123.3123.27-08-0
N. Carolina115.2115.5116.0115.66-26-2
Miami (Fla.)109.4111.4109.8110.26-17-1
Louisville107.9107.9107.4107.72-63-6
Pittsburgh106.5107.5106.8106.94-45-4
Virginia106.0106.4106.5106.33-44-4
Wake Forest104.2105.0105.0104.83-34-3
Boston Coll.103.4103.7104.1103.74-45-4
Virginia Tech102.4103.0103.3102.94-44-5
NC State101.5102.0102.0101.85-36-3
Duke97.998.097.297.71-62-6
Florida St.96.795.896.396.31-62-6
Georgia Tech93.592.892.693.02-42-5
Syracuse88.890.189.189.41-71-8
ACC Avg.105.5105.9105.8105.8


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgB12Overall
Oklahoma122.1121.7122.6122.25-26-2
Iowa St.116.8116.0117.0116.66-16-2
Texas114.2113.0114.1113.84-25-2
Oklahoma St.112.8111.8112.2112.34-25-2
W. Virginia107.0106.8107.4107.14-35-3
T C U106.6104.6106.5105.93-43-4
Baylor105.8105.2105.3105.41-51-5
Kansas St.104.2103.4104.5104.04-34-4
Texas Tech99.097.899.298.72-53-5
Kansas79.779.178.279.00-60-7
Big 12 Avg.106.8105.9106.7106.5


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Ohio St.131.2130.1133.4131.64-04-0
Indiana116.2116.8118.9117.34-14-1
Penn St.110.8109.4111.0110.40-50-5
Michigan106.6105.7107.7106.72-32-3
Rutgers99.698.599.099.01-41-4
Michigan St.97.096.697.497.01-31-3
Maryland94.794.694.194.52-12-1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Wisconsin124.5122.6125.7124.32-12-1
Iowa117.6117.4119.5118.23-23-2
Northwestern113.1113.3115.9114.15-05-0
Minnesota106.2106.7107.6106.82-32-3
Purdue105.9106.4107.1106.52-22-2
Nebraska104.4103.6105.5104.51-31-3
Illinois104.2103.6105.2104.32-32-3
Big Ten Avg.109.4109.0110.6109.7


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
Marshall102.6102.9102.2102.54-07-0
W. Kentucky90.390.790.090.33-34-6
Fla. Atlantic88.789.989.689.44-15-1
Florida Int’l.85.985.785.585.70-30-5
Charlotte84.885.084.784.92-12-3
Middle Tenn.82.482.782.582.52-43-6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
U A B95.596.094.995.52-14-3
La. Tech85.686.585.786.03-24-3
Rice85.883.884.984.81-21-2
U T S A82.082.382.082.14-26-4
Southern Miss.80.781.079.880.51-42-7
North Texas78.378.778.378.52-23-3
U T E P68.070.467.968.80-33-4
CUSA Avg.85.485.885.285.5


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
BYU115.7115.5116.2115.8x9-0
Liberty99.5101.9100.7100.7x8-1
Army92.393.892.292.8x6-2
Mass.62.268.560.063.6x0-3
Ind. Avg.92.494.992.393.2


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Buffalo100.6101.3101.3101.13-03-0
Kent St.93.893.393.493.53-03-0
Ohio92.793.393.793.21-11-1
Miami (O)91.690.491.291.01-11-1
Bowling Green70.271.666.869.50-30-3
Akron68.570.967.268.90-30-3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Western Mich.95.097.096.396.13-03-0
Central Mich.94.995.095.395.12-12-1
Toledo91.893.291.692.22-12-1
Ball St.92.191.491.991.82-12-1
Eastern Mich.81.383.181.682.00-30-3
N. Illinois80.481.780.680.90-30-3
MAC Avg.87.788.587.687.9


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Boise St.107.4107.4107.1107.34-04-1
Air Force100.8101.5100.7101.01-22-2
Wyoming96.297.496.996.81-21-2
Colorado St.89.890.689.890.11-21-2
Utah St.84.483.983.483.90-40-4
New Mexico83.083.782.082.90-40-4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
San Diego St.98.699.799.199.13-23-2
San Jose St.95.897.695.896.44-04-0
Nevada95.596.596.496.25-05-0
Fresno St.95.896.595.796.03-13-1
Hawaii92.892.891.992.52-32-3
U N L V81.182.380.481.20-40-4
MWC Avg.93.494.293.393.6


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Oregon118.6117.0118.4118.03-03-0
Washington110.7109.4111.4110.52-02-0
Washington St.105.6104.4106.5105.51-11-1
California104.3104.2103.9104.10-20-2
Stanford102.9100.6101.9101.80-20-2
Oregon St.101.8102.0100.9101.61-21-2

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
U S C117.1114.3115.8115.83-03-0
Utah107.2107.0108.0107.40-10-1
Arizona St.107.6107.1107.6107.40-10-1
U C L A106.4105.3105.0105.61-21-2
Arizona101.499.7100.6100.60-20-2
Colorado100.1101.198.399.82-02-0
P12 Avg.107.0106.0106.5106.5


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Florida123.2122.8124.0123.36-16-1
Georgia120.2119.1120.7120.05-25-2
Kentucky108.3108.2109.2108.63-53-5
Missouri105.6105.4106.8105.93-33-3
Tennessee106.1105.4106.0105.82-52-5
S. Carolina104.0102.4103.4103.32-62-6
Vanderbilt92.091.491.491.60-70-7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Alabama134.3135.4136.6135.47-07-0
Texas A&M119.7119.7120.0119.85-15-1
Auburn116.6115.5116.6116.25-25-2
L S U115.3114.4116.5115.43-33-3
Ole Miss108.9107.8108.9108.53-43-4
Miss. St.104.7104.1105.3104.72-52-5
Arkansas103.6104.2103.5103.83-53-5
SEC Avg.111.6111.1112.1111.6


Sunbelt Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Coastal Car.104.8105.4105.6105.36-08-0
Appal. St.101.2100.5101.3101.04-16-2
Georgia Sou.92.493.292.792.84-26-3
Georgia St.91.091.291.391.23-44-4
Troy90.391.490.490.72-24-4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Louisiana102.8102.3102.0102.45-17-1
Arkansas St.87.588.187.087.51-53-6
S. Alabama83.083.982.983.32-43-6
Texas St.82.382.981.682.32-52-9
UL-Monroe72.172.270.971.70-50-8
Sun Avg.90.891.190.690.8

Conference Ratings

#LeagueAvg
1SEC111.6
2BTen109.7
3P12106.5
4B12106.5
5ACC105.8
6AAC100.4
7MWC93.6
8Ind.93.2
9Sun90.8
10MAC87.9
11CUSA85.5

The PiRate Ratings Pick The Top 4

The initial Playoff rankings come out this week, and we believe we can predict with some clarity how the Playoff Committee will choose its initial four teams. Alabama, Ohio State, and Notre Dame will be the obvious first three. The issue will be with number four. Clemson is the best team of the rest, but with Oregon and USC undefeated on the Coast, and with Texas A&M having a win over Florida with a loss at Alabama, the Committee might choose someone other than Clemson as its fourth team.

We have not seen enough from Oregon or USC to this point to believe the Ducks or Trojans should even be in the conversation. As for Cincinnati, BYU, Coastal Carolina, Nevada, San Jose St., and possible one of the MAC teams, face it: the Committee isn’t going to seriously consider a G5 team for the Playoffs. The Bearcats will be the top G5 team in line for the guaranteed New Year’s 6 Bowl bid. We aren’t even sure that a second undefeated G5 team would be considered for a second NY6 Bowl, even if it was deserved.

As of this morning, we look at the criteria that matters most. Who did you beat? Who did you lose to? Using that criteria, Texas A&M deserves to start the Playoff Poll as the #4 team. The Aggies one loss at Alabama balances with Clemson’s loss at Notre Dame. A&M has the win over Florida, while Clemson’s most impressive win was over Miami. Florida is ranked above the Hurricanes, and thus Texas A&M deserves to be ranked a tad ahead of Clemson at this point.

The trouble with the polling is that Texas A&M could finish 9-1, and since they will finish second in the SEC West, the Aggies won’t play in the SEC Championship. Meanwhile, a 10-1 Clemson team would potentially face Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, where a Tiger win would most assuredly jump CU over A&M.

Of course, we are getting way ahead of ourselves. What if a team like Pittsburgh upset Clemson? With two losses, then the Committee almost has to look at an undefeated team from outside the ACC, Big Ten, or SEC. A two-loss Clemson team may not finish in the top two in the ACC. Miami and Notre Dame might then end up in the ACC Championship Game.

Who is most deserving of the best of the rest if Clemson or Notre Dame were to play themselves out of the Playoffs? If Ohio State and Alabama run the table, a 9-1 Texas A&M team would almost have to be the logical choice for one of the two spots. Florida would have two losses in this scenario, having lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship, so the Gators would be out.

The Big 12 would be eliminated with their champion guaranteed to have at least two losses. Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas are in a logjam for the two Championship Game slots.

The Big Ten could have an 8-1 Northwestern team if the Wildcats ran the table and then lost to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. At 8-1, it would be difficult for the Committee to jump a two-loss Clemson, Florida, or Oklahoma team ahead of the Wildcats.

The Pac-12 would have the best chance to get an Oregon, USC, Colorado, or Washington into the Final Four, if the Champion ran the table. If the Pac-12 Champion had one loss, it would then open the door for an undefeated Cincinnati or BYU to sneak in the back door, but we believe that none of the other remaining unbeatens (San Jose State, Nevada, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Kent St., Marshall) would have a chance.

If the Playoffs Began Today, Our Vote Would Be:

Alabama

Notre Dame

Ohio St.

Texas A&M

October 22, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 22-26, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:55 am

Go Big or Go Home But Make Sure You Don’t Bet Your Mortgage!

Every week, we make sure any newcomers to this site understand that our selections on this weekly edition are made strictly for entertainment purposes only. We highly urge you never to wager real money on the picks you see published at this site. We never wager real money; all of our selections are made with our infinite imaginary bankroll.

That said, we know that there are a number of you reading this that will ignore the warning. That is your mistake, so if you have to cash in a Treasury Bond to cover your losses, don’t get mad at us.

Before we get into this week’s selections, let’s quickly review what happened last week. It wasn’t good. A lot of the profits we had accumulated were returned to the imaginary sports book in the imaginary Nevada. We still show a small imaginary profit for the year, but it is infinitesimal. Additionally, the selections that won were different styles of exotic wagers, while what had been most successful earlier in the year, the straight wagers, didn’t perform well.

This week, we are issuing a season high 18 selections. One might postulate that we are really confident this week and decided to issue a lot of selections. Actually, the reverse is true. We are considerably less confident with this week’s selections. We found several “almost good” possibilities and could not narrow the list down to “best” possibilities, as our internal numbers and the folks in Nevada agreed too often. We hoped to be able to play a bunch of Underdogs in the conferences beginning play, but it is like somebody set the odds based on our ratings. Multiple games with teams playing their openers saw the official line and our ratings agree within one point. Some of these lines originated several points off of our ratings, but by Monday night, they had moved to where our ratings had them. In a way, we love this, as it gives us a shot in the arm to know that our ratings are similar to what the Sharps believe. We do know that a handful of Sharps do follow this site, and we are thankful to some really nice people in the Las Vegas-Henderson area that have reached out to us. So, when does the invitation come to spend a week there in the middle of Winter?

Now, it’s time for this week’s selections. We do not really like playing a lot of favorites, but the underdog numbers just didn’t offer a lot of value. You will see that we are playing some games multiple times in different types of wagers. This leads to feast or famine, and in the past, this has offered us a tiny percentage increase in weeks where one or two games met our internal requirements for straight wager, totals, teasers, and/or money line parlays.

Enjoy, but keep your real money in your bank accounts, unless you already planned to wager on the selections you see here.

Date:10/22-10/26
College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. Penn St.Indiana-5.5
2. NavyHouston+14
3. Boston Col.Ga. Tech-3
4. MinnesotaMichigan+3
5. CincinnatiSMU+3
6. Air ForceSan Jose St.-7


7. College 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
OklahomaTCU-0.5
BaylorTexas+15


8. College 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
Penn St.IndianaE
KentuckyMissouri+0.5


9. College 7-point Teaser @ +140
SelectionOpponentLine
AuburnOle Miss+3.5
Okla. St.Iowa St.+3.5
Air ForceS.J. St.E


10. College Money Line Parlay @ +160.60
Must WinOpponentOdds
TulsaFla. Atlantic
OklahomaTCU+160.60
Air ForceS.J. St.


11. College Money Line Parlay @ +169.19
Must WinOpponentOdds
LibertySou. Miss.
Penn St.Indiana+169.19
LSUS. Carolina


NFL Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
12. PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants-4
13. AtlantaDetroit-1
14. DenverKansas City+10


15. NFL 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
PhiladelphiaN.Y. GiantsO35
BuffaloN.Y. JetsO35
WashingtonDallasO35


16. NFL 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
DenverKansas CityO36
New EnglandSan FranciscoO33.5
LA RamsChicagoO35


17. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +190.94
Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants
DallasWashington+190.94


18. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +180.33
Must WinOpponentOdds
Green BayHouston
New EnglandSan Francisco+180.33

October 14, 2020

Saturday’s College Football TV Schedule

This weekly addition to the PiRate Ratings is supposed to be the easiest edition we put out, but not this year. The TV schedule has already changed twice today after changing on Monday when Baylor postponed their game with Oklahoma St. With the cancellation of Vanderbilt and Missouri, one switch was made. Then, when it became official that Florida and LSU were moving to December 12, another change was made.

So, this is the TV schedule as of Wednesday evening, Eastern Time. We suggest you look at this feature again later in the week if other games are postponed. If the schedule changes, we will do our best to update it all the way until Saturday morning.

Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
12:00 PMABCGeorgia TechClemsonTech turnovers could make this super blowout
12:00 PMESPNSouth CarolinaAuburnShould be rather close game–loser’s coach on hot seat
12:00 PMESPN2E. CarolinaNavyReplaces Tulsa-Cinti.
12:00 PMFOXWest VirginiaKansasProbably a dud game
12:00 PMSECNTennesseeKentuckyVols own Cats in this series, but an even matchup
12:00 PMFSNSyracuseLibertyFlames could win this one and maybe by a lot
12:00 PMESPNUSouth AlabamaTexas St.Only if you are a fan of one of the teams
12:00 PMACCNMiami (Fla.)PittsburghBoth teams coming off emotional losses
1:30 PMCBSSNUTSAArmyGame should be over quickly–maybe 120 plays
2:30 PMNBCNotre DameLouisvilleIrish need to win big to let Clemson know they are there
3:30 PMABCMemphisCentral FloridaCould it be a 90 to 100-point total?
3:30 PMSECNArkansasOle MissBefore Hogs were in SEC, this was a rivalry game
3:30 PMFSNNC St.DukeA backyard brawl that should make Pack 4-1
4:00 PMESPNMississippi St.Texas A&MAll’s not well in Starkville all of a sudden
4:00 PMACCNWake ForestVirginiaExpect a close game but maybe not entertaining
4:00 PMESPN2Georgia SouthernU MassThe Minutemen play their first game of the year
6:00 PMCBSSNLouisiana TechMarshallWinner of this game most likely wins CUSA regular season
7:30 PMABCFlorida St.North CarolinaUNC needs to top half a hundred again to be a contender
7:30 PMESPN2UTEPSouthern Miss.CANCELLED
8:00 PMCBSAlabamaGeorgiaMaybe the Regular Season Game of the Year!
8:00 PMESPNUCharlotteFlorida Int’l.CANCELLED
8:00 PMACCNVirginia TechBoston CollegeNice game but not Bama & Dogs

Coming tomorrow: our for entertainment purposes only handicapping selections that have accidentally made a decent imaginary profit this year. We must be due for a big losing week, but maybe we can back into some additional winners. We heard from a few of you that went against our warning and actually wagered on some longshot parlays that happened to win last week. Please do not think for one second that we can be this lucky again. Don’t wager real money on our fun picks!

September 27, 2020

PiRate Ratings–College Football For October 2-3, 2020

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:30 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
BYULa. Tech25.223.023.8
FloridaS. Carolina13.314.914.8
TexasTCU11.011.911.0
TennesseeMissouri12.512.211.9
PittsburghNC St.12.614.412.7
Georgia St.E. Carolina-1.5-2.1-0.2
Coastal Car.Arkansas St.-2.4-3.5-2.0
West Va.Baylor-6.1-6.4-6.3
UABUTSA19.519.919.5
AlabamaTexas A&M10.511.812.4
Boston Coll.N. Carolina-8.9-9.8-10.5
CincinnatiUSF20.421.222.2
KansasOklahoma St.-25.1-24.5-26.4
SMUMemphis-5.1-4.2-4.9
Kansas St.Texas Tech9.69.79.4
DukeVirginia Tech-10.9-11.2-13.9
KentuckyOle Miss8.09.59.0
Fla. AtlanticCharlotte-3.6-2.5-4.0
Middle Tenn.Western Ky.-12.4-12.9-13.5
Air ForceNavy3.26.25.2
UL-MonroeGa. Southern-17.0-18.0-20.2
Iowa St.Oklahoma-4.1-4.8-4.4
GeorgiaAuburn5.14.95.8
VanderbiltLSU-22.3-22.1-26.0
UCFTulsa15.718.419.0
North TexasSouthern Miss.-4.8-4.4-3.5
Mississippi St.Arkansas18.517.222.6
ClemsonVirginia19.721.023.7
S. AlabamaTroy-2.9-3.3-4.0
FBS vs. FCS
FBSFCSPiRate
Wake ForestCampbell29.9
LibertyN. Alabama24.0
ArmyAbilene Chr.27.5
Florida St.Jacksonville St.22.5

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: This week’s ratings expand from 90 to 127 teams, the number now committed to playing in 2020. Only Old Dominion, Connecticut, and New Mexico St. are not playing.

#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Ohio St.131.3130.0134.3131.9BTen-E
2Clemson125.3126.5129.2127.0ACC
3Alabama122.0123.2123.9123.0SEC-W
4Penn St.122.2121.0122.8122.0BTen-E
5Wisconsin122.5119.9123.3121.9BTen-W
6Georgia121.8120.3122.5121.5SEC-E
7Florida120.6120.0121.4120.7SEC-E
8Notre Dame120.6119.9120.7120.4ACC
9L S U119.6118.8122.0120.1SEC-W
10Oregon119.5117.9119.3118.9P12-N
11Auburn118.7117.3118.7118.2SEC-W
12Oklahoma115.2114.8115.2115.1B12
13U S C116.2113.5115.2115.0P12-S
14Texas115.0113.5114.9114.5B12
15Texas A&M114.0114.0113.9114.0SEC-W
16UCF113.2113.9114.5113.9AAC
17Minnesota112.3113.2114.4113.3BTen-W
18N. Carolina112.5113.2113.9113.2ACC
19Iowa112.3112.0114.1112.8BTen-W
20Oklahoma St.113.1112.3112.9112.8B12
21Michigan112.3111.6114.2112.7BTen-E
22Virginia Tech111.0111.3113.1111.8ACC
23Miss. St.111.2110.7113.1111.7SEC-W
24Kentucky110.8111.0111.9111.2SEC-E
25Tennessee110.5110.3111.1110.6SEC-E
26Miami (Fla.)109.4112.1109.9110.5ACC
27Indiana109.4110.0111.8110.4BTen-E
28Baylor110.0110.2110.3110.2B12
29BYU110.5109.6110.2110.1Ind.
30Washington110.2108.9110.9110.0P12-N
31Cincinnati110.2109.3109.9109.8AAC
32Utah109.3108.9110.0109.4P12-S
33Memphis109.6108.5108.8109.0AAC
34Nebraska108.0107.6109.5108.4BTen-W
35S. Carolina109.3107.1108.6108.3SEC-E
36Iowa St.108.6107.6108.4108.2B12
37Virginia108.1108.0108.0108.1ACC
38California107.5107.7107.8107.7P12-N
39Arizona St.107.8107.4107.8107.6P12-S
40Louisville107.7108.0106.5107.4ACC
41Boise St.107.3107.1106.8107.1MWC-M
42Kansas St.107.3106.1107.4106.9B12
43Purdue105.9106.8107.2106.6BTen-W
44Pittsburgh105.0106.8105.3105.7ACC
45Louisiana105.1104.5104.8104.8SUN-W
46Washington St.104.8103.5105.9104.7P12-N
47T C U105.5103.0105.4104.7B12
48Ole Miss104.9103.5104.9104.4SEC-W
49Northwestern103.5103.4106.1104.4BTen-W
50Illinois104.1103.5105.1104.2BTen-W
51Stanford105.0102.5104.2103.9P12-N
52Houston105.0103.1103.4103.8AAC
53Michigan St.102.9102.7103.4103.0BTen-E
54Oregon St.103.0103.3101.8102.7P12-N
55SMU102.5102.3101.9102.3AAC
56Appal. St.102.3101.2103.0102.2SUN-E
57W. Virginia101.9101.8102.0101.9B12
58Boston Coll.101.6101.3101.4101.4ACC
59Florida St.101.8100.1101.4101.1ACC
60U C L A102.2100.7100.3101.1P12-S
61Arizona101.499.7100.4100.5P12-S
62Marshall100.9100.5100.0100.4CUSA
63Missouri100.0100.1101.2100.4SEC-E
64Air Force99.7100.799.9100.1MWC-M
65Texas Tech99.798.4100.199.4B12
66Wake Forest98.499.098.198.5ACC
67Duke98.698.697.698.2ACC
68Tulsa99.697.597.598.2AAC
69Tulane98.598.297.498.0AAC
70Wyoming97.098.698.498.0MWC-M
71Navy99.197.197.197.8AAC
72Colorado97.899.195.797.5P12-S
73Buffalo96.797.397.697.2MAC-E
74Arkansas St.96.397.796.296.7SUN-W
75San Diego St.95.997.296.896.6MWC-W
76Temple96.597.295.896.5AAC
77Syracuse95.597.196.196.3ACC
78U A B95.896.495.595.9CUSA
79Georgia Tech96.295.395.095.5ACC
80Rutgers96.494.994.495.2BTen-E
81Vanderbilt95.795.294.595.2SEC-E
82Ohio94.395.196.095.1MAC-E
83W. Kentucky94.695.595.295.1CUSA
84Florida Int’l.95.194.895.495.1CUSA
85Arkansas95.296.193.094.8SEC-W
86Maryland95.194.993.694.5BTen-E
87NC State94.494.494.694.5ACC
88Hawaii94.894.793.894.4MWC-W
89Georgia Sou.93.794.595.094.4SUN-E
90Army93.495.293.594.1Ind.
91Miami (O)94.793.294.093.9MAC-E
92Fresno St.93.393.792.993.3MWC-W
93Utah St.93.593.092.993.1MWC-M
94Central Mich.93.292.793.393.1MAC-W
95Coastal Car.92.492.792.792.6SUN-E
96Ball St.92.691.993.092.5MAC-W
97E. Carolina92.792.991.492.3AAC
98Colorado St.91.192.191.291.5MWC-M
99Nevada90.691.191.191.0MWC-W
100Liberty89.692.490.490.8Ind.
101USF91.890.189.790.5AAC
102Western Mich.89.191.290.490.2MAC-W
103Kent St.90.189.489.589.7MAC-E
104San Jose St.89.291.088.589.6MWC-W
105Georgia St.89.789.389.789.6SUN-E
106Toledo88.589.788.088.7MAC-W
107Troy88.089.488.488.6SUN-E
108La. Tech87.388.688.488.1CUSA
109Charlotte87.087.087.487.2CUSA
110Rice86.884.386.185.7CUSA
111Kansas86.085.884.585.5B12
112Southern Miss.84.284.482.983.8CUSA
113U N L V83.585.083.083.8MWC-W
114S. Alabama83.684.683.083.7SUN-W
115N. Illinois82.884.683.283.6MAC-W
116New Mexico83.684.382.483.4MWC-M
117Eastern Mich.82.484.582.883.2MAC-W
118Fla. Atlantic81.983.181.982.3CUSA
119Texas St.81.882.580.581.6SUN-W
120Miami (O)80.781.180.280.7CUSA
121North Texas77.978.577.878.1CUSA
122U T S A77.978.077.577.8CUSA
123UL-Monroe75.275.073.374.5SUN-W
124Bowling Green74.476.170.673.7MAC-E
125Akron73.175.571.573.4MAC-E
126U T E P68.370.967.969.0CUSA
127Mass.64.171.262.065.8Ind.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
UCF113.2113.9114.5113.9
Cincinnati110.2109.3109.9109.8
Memphis109.6108.5108.8109.0
Houston105.0103.1103.4103.8
SMU102.5102.3101.9102.3
Tulsa99.697.597.598.2
Tulane98.598.297.498.0
Navy99.197.197.197.8
Temple96.597.295.896.5
E. Carolina92.792.991.492.3
USF91.890.189.790.5
AAC Avg.101.7100.9100.7101.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Clemson125.3126.5129.2127.0
Notre Dame120.6119.9120.7120.4
N. Carolina112.5113.2113.9113.2
Virginia Tech111.0111.3113.1111.8
Miami (Fla.)109.4112.1109.9110.5
Virginia108.1108.0108.0108.1
Louisville107.7108.0106.5107.4
Pittsburgh105.0106.8105.3105.7
Boston Coll.101.6101.3101.4101.4
Florida St.101.8100.1101.4101.1
Wake Forest98.499.098.198.5
Duke98.698.697.698.2
Syracuse95.597.196.196.3
Georgia Tech96.295.395.095.5
NC State94.494.494.694.5
ACC Avg.105.7106.1106.0106.0
Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Oklahoma115.2114.8115.2115.1
Texas115.0113.5114.9114.5
Oklahoma St.113.1112.3112.9112.8
Baylor110.0110.2110.3110.2
Iowa St.108.6107.6108.4108.2
Kansas St.107.3106.1107.4106.9
T C U105.5103.0105.4104.7
W. Virginia101.9101.8102.0101.9
Texas Tech99.798.4100.199.4
Kansas86.085.884.585.5
Big 12 Avg.106.2105.4106.1105.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.131.3130.0134.3131.9
Penn St.122.2121.0122.8122.0
Michigan112.3111.6114.2112.7
Indiana109.4110.0111.8110.4
Michigan St.102.9102.7103.4103.0
Rutgers96.494.994.495.2
Maryland95.194.993.694.5
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin122.5119.9123.3121.9
Minnesota112.3113.2114.4113.3
Iowa112.3112.0114.1112.8
Nebraska108.0107.6109.5108.4
Purdue105.9106.8107.2106.6
Northwestern103.5103.4106.1104.4
Illinois104.1103.5105.1104.2
Big Ten Avg.109.9109.4111.0110.1
Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Marshall100.9100.5100.0100.4
U A B95.896.495.595.9
W. Kentucky94.695.595.295.1
Florida Int’l.95.194.895.495.1
La. Tech87.388.688.488.1
Charlotte87.087.087.487.2
Rice86.884.386.185.7
Southern Miss.84.284.482.983.8
Fla. Atlantic81.983.181.982.3
Middle Tenn.80.781.180.280.7
North Texas77.978.577.878.1
U T S A77.978.077.577.8
U T E P68.370.967.969.0
CUSA Avg.86.086.485.986.1
FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
BYU110.5109.6110.2110.1
Army93.495.293.594.1
Liberty89.692.490.490.8
Mass.64.171.262.065.8
Ind. Avg.89.492.189.090.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Buffalo96.797.397.697.2
Ohio94.395.196.095.1
Miami (O)94.793.294.093.9
Kent St.90.189.489.589.7
Bowling Green74.476.170.673.7
Akron73.175.571.573.4
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Central Mich.93.292.793.393.1
Ball St.92.691.993.092.5
Western Mich.89.191.290.490.2
Toledo88.589.788.088.7
N. Illinois82.884.683.283.6
Eastern Mich.82.484.582.883.2
MAC Avg.87.688.487.587.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Boise St.107.3107.1106.8107.1
Air Force99.7100.799.9100.1
Wyoming97.098.698.498.0
Utah St.93.593.092.993.1
Colorado St.91.192.191.291.5
New Mexico83.684.382.483.4
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
San Diego St.95.997.296.896.6
Hawaii94.894.793.894.4
Fresno St.93.393.792.993.3
Nevada90.691.191.191.0
San Jose St.89.291.088.589.6
U N L V83.585.083.083.8
MWC Avg.93.394.093.193.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Oregon119.5117.9119.3118.9
Washington110.2108.9110.9110.0
California107.5107.7107.8107.7
Washington St.104.8103.5105.9104.7
Stanford105.0102.5104.2103.9
Oregon St.103.0103.3101.8102.7
South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
U S C116.2113.5115.2115.0
Utah109.3108.9110.0109.4
Arizona St.107.8107.4107.8107.6
U C L A102.2100.7100.3101.1
Arizona101.499.7100.4100.5
Colorado97.899.195.797.5
P12 Avg.107.1106.1106.6106.6
Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Georgia121.8120.3122.5121.5
Florida120.6120.0121.4120.7
Kentucky110.8111.0111.9111.2
Tennessee110.5110.3111.1110.6
S. Carolina109.3107.1108.6108.3
Missouri100.0100.1101.2100.4
Vanderbilt95.795.294.595.2
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Alabama122.0123.2123.9123.0
L S U119.6118.8122.0120.1
Auburn118.7117.3118.7118.2
Texas A&M114.0114.0113.9114.0
Miss. St.111.2110.7113.1111.7
Ole Miss104.9103.5104.9104.4
Arkansas95.296.193.094.8
SEC Avg.111.0110.5111.5111.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Appal. St.102.3101.2103.0102.2
Georgia Sou.93.794.595.094.4
Coastal Car.92.492.792.792.6
Georgia St.89.789.389.789.6
Troy88.089.488.488.6
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg
Louisiana105.1104.5104.8104.8
Arkansas St.96.397.796.296.7
S. Alabama83.684.683.083.7
Texas St.81.882.580.581.6
UL-Monroe75.275.073.374.5
Sun Avg.90.891.190.790.9

Conference Ratings

#LeagueAvg
1SEC111.0
2BTen110.1
3P12106.6
4ACC106.0
5B12105.9
6AAC101.1
7MWC93.5
8Sun90.9
9Ind.90.2
10MAC87.9
11CUSA86.1

This Week’s College TV Schedule

Friday, October 2
Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
7:00 PMACCNWake ForestCampbellNot Much reason to watch unless you just must
9:00 PMESPN2BYULa. TechTwo undefeated teams that can move the ball
Saturday, October 3
Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
12:00 PMESPN2Coastal CarolinaArkansas St.Ak St. beat the team that beat Oklahoma
12:00 PMABCWest VirginiaBaylorBig 12 needs big team to step up–Can BU be it?
12:00 PMESPNUGeorgia St.East CarolinaShould be a competitive game with lots of offense
12:00 PMSECNTennesseeMissouriVols looking to build on momentum
12:00 PMACCNPittsburghNC StatePanthers looking to go 3-0 for the 1st time since 2014
12:00 PMESPNFloridaS. CarolinaGators’ offense looked great, but D not so much
12:00 PMFoxTexasTCUHorns escaped with miracle win. Need to convince.
12:30 PMStadiumUABUTSABlazers clearly the better team
1:30 PMCBSSNArmyAbilene Chr.Black Knights could rush for 400+
3:30 PMESPN2SMUMemphisA sneaky great game could see 80+ total points
3:30 PMABCBoston CollegeNorth CarolinaMaybe the best of the daytime games
3:30 PMESPNKansasOklahoma St.If Cowboys don’t win convincingly, Big 12 is sick
3:30 PMCBSAlabamaTexas A&MBoth teams held back last game to reserve for this one
3:30 PMFS1Kansas St.Texas TechInteresting game–Big winner vs. Tragic loser
4:00 PMESPNUFla. AtlanticCharlotteOne of the more dull games this week
4:00 PMSECNKentuckyOle MissLoser in big hole at 0-2–should be hard-fought game
4:00 PMACCNDukeVirginia TechTech won missing 23 players incl. #1 QB
6:00 PMCBSSNAir ForceNavyAlways a great game. AFA only MWC team to play
7:30 PMSECN-AMiss. StateArkansasAir Leach could hang half a hundred on Arky
7:30 PMESPNGeorgiaAuburnBest overall game of the day–who is #2 in SEC?
7:30 PMSECNVanderbiltLSULSU defense will be much improved this week
7:30 PMABCIowa St.OklahomaLustre knocked off this game as both teams have a loss
7:30 PMESPN2UCFTulsaUCF tries to remain top G5 team
7:30 PMStadiumNorth TexasSouthern Miss.Weakest game on the TV slate this week
8:00 PMESPNUS.AlabamaTroyNot much reason to watch outside of Alabama
8:00 PMACCNClemsonVirginiaCU should win by 17 or more, but UVa is not a pushover

September 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings–College Football TV Schedule

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:52 am

September 24-26, 2020

Thursday, September 24
Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
7:30 PMESPNS. AlabamaUABUSA has revenge for last year’s 35-3 loss at UAB
Friday, September 25
Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
8:00 PMCBSSNUTSAMiddle Tenn.UTSA might have its best ever FBS team
Saturday, September 26
Time ETNetworkHomeVisitorsEntertainment Value
12:00 PMSECAuburnKentuckyOne of the top games of the day
12:00 PMABCWake ForestNotre DameIrish looking to go to 2-0 in ACC
12:00 PMESPNOle MissFloridaDebut of Lane Kiffin in Oxford
12:00 PMFoxOklahomaKansas St.Sooners need to win big, or Big 12 has issues
12:00 PMESPN2LouisianaGa. SouthernUL now the premier team in SBC
12:00 PMFSNSyracuseGa. TechSU needs some offense. Tech has turnover issues
12:00 PMESPNUCharlotteGa. StateTwo decent 0-1 teams
12:00 PMACCPittsburghLouisvillePitt could make some ACC noise with a win here
12:30 PMFS1TCUIowa St.Loser of this game likely headed to losing record
1:00 PMESPN3LibertyFlorida Int’l.One of the better G5 games this week
2:30 PMStadiumSouthern Miss.TulaneBoth teams blew large leads last week
3:30 PMCBSLSUMississippi St.Debut of Mike Leach with MSU/ LSU no Burrow
3:30 PMESPNCincinnatiArmyWinner here has shot at G5 spot in NY6
3:30 PMFoxTexas TechTexasCan Longhorns keep pace with OU
3:30 PMABCOklahoma St.West Va.Okie St. players not on the same page last week
3:30 PMESPN2Arkansas St.TulsaTulsa expected to bounce. ASU could win by TD+
3:30 PMESPNUUL MonroeUTEPTwo very weak G5 teams headed nowhere
4:00 PMSECArkansasGeorgiaDebut of Sam Pittman at Arky;UGa a big favorite
4:00 PMACCVirginiaDukeUVa finally gets to play. Duke already 0-2
6:00 PMFSNBoston CollegeTexas St.BC looked like a rejuvenated team with great TEs
6:00 PMCBSSNFlorida AtlanticUSFNice in-state rivalry game but little more than that
7:00 PMESPNMissouriAlabamaMO with 11 Covids at the wrong time
7:00 PMESPN3Louisiana TechHouston BaptistLT might not be overly sharp in this game
7:30 PMABCMiami (Fla.)Florida St.Game of the Night. Miami looked great vs. UL
7:30 PMSECS. CarolinaTennesseeClosest SEC matchup of the day
7:30 PMSEC-ATexas A&MVanderbiltWorst SEC mismatch of the day
7:30 PMESPNUBaylorKansasBaylor playing Game 1. KU wishes it was the same
8:00 PMACCVa. TechNC St.First game for VT; second game for NC St.
10:15 PMESPNBYUTroyWorth staying up late for. Both 1-0 impressively

February 29, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 29, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am

Saturday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Abilene Christian

Central Arkansas

9.4

Alabama

South Carolina

6.1

Albany

Stony Brook

-3.1

Alcorn St.

Southern

-0.5

Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina

4.4

Boston U

Bucknell

8.1

Bradley

Loyola (Chi.)

1.9

Brown

Pennsylvania

-1.8

Buffalo

Akron

-1.0

Butler

DePaul

9.4

Cal St. Bakersfield

New Mexico St.

-6.7

Cal St. Northridge

Cal St. Fullerton

3.7

California

Utah

-0.2

California Baptist

Seattle

5.3

Campbell

UNC Asheville

5.2

Canisius

Saint Peter’s

-0.9

Central Connecticut

St. Francis (NY)

-4.9

Charleston

Drexel

8.6

Chattanooga

UNC Greensboro

-3.3

Clemson

Florida St.

-3.3

Colgate

Army

11.3

Colorado St.

Air Force

10.4

Columbia

Dartmouth

-0.8

Cornell

Harvard

-7.5

Denver

Western Illinois

5.5

Drake

Northern Iowa

-5.7

Duquesne

George Mason

8.3

East Carolina

Connecticut

-7.3

East Tennessee St.

Western Carolina

11.0

Eastern Kentucky

Morehead St.

4.1

Eastern Michigan

Central Michigan

4.4

Evansville

Illinois St.

-0.4

Florida Gulf Coast

North Alabama

2.0

Fresno St.

Wyoming

10.9

Furman

Citadel

21.7

Georgia

Arkansas

-1.7

Georgia Tech

Miami

6.6

Gonzaga

Saint Mary’s

13.3

Grambling

Arkansas-Pine Bluff

10.9

Grand Canyon

UT Rio Grande Valley

3.6

Green Bay

Cleveland St.

8.3

Hampton

South Carolina Upstate

4.4

Hawaii

UC Riverside

4.0

Hofstra

James Madison

14.3

Holy Cross

American

-8.4

Houston Baptist

McNeese

-5.7

Illinois Chicago

Oakland

3.8

Indiana St.

Valparaiso

4.5

Iowa

Penn St.

2.9

IUPUI

Detroit

-0.1

Jackson St.

Mississippi Valley St.

17.1

Jacksonville St.

Tennessee Tech

8.5

Kansas St.

Kansas

-12.9

Kennesaw St.

NJIT

-7.8

Kentucky

Auburn

5.3

La Salle

St. Bonaventure

-1.3

Lafayette

Navy

5.1

Lipscomb

Liberty

-9.6

Little Rock

Louisiana

9.4

Loyola (MD)

Lehigh

5.3

Loyola Marymount

San Francisco

-4.8

LSU

Texas A&M

12.3

Maine

UMBC

-2.7

Marquette

Seton Hall

2.4

Maryland

Michigan St.

1.6

Maryland-Eastern Shore

Delaware St.

5.1

Mercer

Wofford

-0.1

Miami (O)

Bowling Green

-2.5

Milwaukee

Youngstown St.

1.4

Missouri

Mississippi St.

-0.2

Missouri St.

Southern Illinois

5.1

Morgan St.

Coppin St.

5.9

Mount St. Mary’s

Fairleigh Dickinson

3.5

Murray St.

Austin Peay

4.6

Nevada

San Diego St.

-5.8

New Hampshire

Binghamton

9.6

New Mexico

Utah St.

-6.7

Niagara

Iona

-2.4

Nicholls

New Orleans

9.9

Norfolk St.

Howard

14.8

North Carolina St.

Pittsburgh

8.5

North Dakota St.

Omaha

7.8

Northern Arizona

Montana St.

4.6

Northern Colorado

Eastern Washington

6.4

Oklahoma St.

Iowa St.

4.2

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

9.1

Oral Roberts

Purdue Fort Wayne

10.8

Pepperdine

BYU

-9.5

Prairie View A&M

Alabama St.

12.4

Presbyterian

Charleston Southern

0.5

Radford

Gardner-Webb

6.9

Richmond

Massachusetts

12.2

Robert Morris

St. Francis (PA)

0.2

Sacramento St.

Montana

0.5

Sacred Heart

Long Island

6.3

Saint Joseph’s

Fordham

2.8

Samford

VMI

-0.4

San Diego

Pacific

-2.8

San Jose St.

UNLV

14.2

Santa Clara

Portland

11.2

SIU-Edwardsville

Eastern Illinois

-4.1

South Alabama

Troy

10.4

South Carolina St.

North Carolina Central

-1.9

South Dakota

North Dakota

6.8

Southeast Louisiana

Northwestern St.

-0.9

Southern Utah

Idaho

13.0

Stephen F. Austin

Lamar

12.0

Stetson

Jacksonville

0.1

Syracuse

North Carolina

5.4

TCU

Baylor

-8.3

Tennessee

Florida

-0.5

Tennessee St.

Belmont

-8.0

Texas A&M-CC

Incarnate Word

10.3

Texas Southern

Alabama A&M

10.7

Texas Tech

Texas

9.6

Toledo

Ball St.

1.9

Tulane

Memphis

-6.9

Tulsa

Central Florida

6.5

UC Davis

Long Beach St.

8.3

UC Irvine

UC Santa Barbara

6.7

UCLA

Arizona

-5.6

UMass Lowell

Vermont

-10.6

UMKC

Chicago St.

22.5

UNC Wilmington

Delaware

-3.3

USC

Arizona St.

3.3

UT Martin

Southeast Missouri

3.7

VCU

George Washington

14.4

Villanova

Providence

8.2

Virginia

Duke

-6.3

Wagner

Bryant

-3.4

Wake Forest

Notre Dame

0.2

Weber St.

Portland St.

-1.4

West Virginia

Oklahoma

7.7

Western Michigan

Northern Illinois

-1.8

William & Mary

Elon

9.2

Winthrop

High Point

17.9

Yale

Princeton

12.1

 

Saturday’s Important TV Games

 

Games in which both teams are competing for an at-large NCAA Tournament Bid or a regular conference championship in a one-bid league

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

12:00 PM

Fox

Villanova

Providence

12:00 PM

BTN

Iowa

Penn St.

12:00 PM

ESPN

Texas Tech

Texas

2:00 PM

ESPN

TCU

Baylor

2:00 PM

ACCN

Clemson

Florida St.

2:30 PM

Fox

Marquette

Seton Hall

3:45 PM

CBS

Kentucky

Auburn

4:00 PM

ESPN2

West Virginia

Oklahoma

6:00 PM

ESPN

Virginia

Duke

6:00 PM

ESPN+

Brown

Penn

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Yale

Princeton

8:00 PM

ESPN

Maryland

Michigan St.

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Murray St.

Austin Peay

8:00 PM

ESPNU

USC

Arizona St.

8:30 PM

SECN

Alabama

South Carolina

10:00 PM

ESPN2

Gonzaga

Saint Mary’s

10:00 PM

ESPN

UCLA

Arizona

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 19, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 19, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:08 am

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Alabama

Texas A&M

13.1

American

Navy

4.9

Arkansas St.

UL Monroe

7.0

Bradley

Missouri St.

4.9

Cincinnati

Central Florida

11.2

Citadel

Chattanooga

-8.4

Colgate

Lehigh

15.3

DePaul

Villanova

-3.4

Drake

Valparaiso

2.4

Duquesne

George Washington

11.4

East Tennessee St.

Furman

4.6

Fresno St.

Air Force

6.2

Georgetown

Providence

4.8

Georgia

Auburn

-3.4

Houston

Tulsa

10.0

Houston Baptist

Abilene Christian

-10.7

Incarnate Word

McNeese

-7.3

La Salle

Fordham

7.6

Lafayette

Boston U

-0.3

Louisville

Syracuse

10.0

Loyola (Chi.)

Illinois St.

11.4

Loyola (MD)

Army

2.6

Memphis

East Carolina

15.8

Mercer

Samford

7.5

Minnesota

Indiana

4.9

Mississippi St.

South Carolina

5.5

North Carolina St.

Duke

-8.4

North Dakota

South Dakota St.

-4.1

Northwestern St.

Nicholls St.

-4.3

Richmond

George Mason

11.8

Rutgers

Michigan

1.2

Sam Houston St.

Lamar

8.8

San Jose St.

Boise St.

-11.5

Seton Hall

Butler

5.7

Siena

Iona

7.0

South Dakota

North Dakota St.

0.3

Stephen F. Austin

Central Arkansas

14.0

Texas

TCU

4.1

Texas Tech

Kansas St.

12.0

Tulane

SMU

-6.1

UC Irvine

Long Beach St.

15.7

UMKC

California Baptist

-0.2

UNC Greensboro

Wofford

10.1

Utah St.

Wyoming

21.1

Virginia

Boston College

11.6

Virginia Tech

Miami

4.9

Wake Forest

Georgia Tech

1.3

Washington St.

California

6.6

Western Carolina

VMI

9.5

 

Wednesday’s Key TV Games

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

FS1

Seton Hall

Butler

7:00 PM

ESPN

Louisville

Syracuse

7:00 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Michigan

7:00 PM

ESPN+

East Tennessee St.

Furman

8:00 PM

ESPN3

South Dakota

North Dakota St.

8:30 PM

FS1

Georgetown

Providence

9:00 PM

ESPN

North Carolina St.

Duke

9:00 PM

ESPNU

Houston

Tulsa

9:00 PM

BTN

Minnesota

Indiana

9:00 PM

SECN

Mississippi St.

South Carolina

In Order To Perform A More Perfect Metric

 

If you follow this website on a semi-regular basis, you know that our R+T Rating has been the one unique metric used by us when predicting NCAA Tournament favorites.

For those of you that are new to this site, our R+T Rating was created two decades ago to estimate the extra scoring opportunities (by points) each team might be better than average in the NCAA Tournament.  We realized long ago that just like the “Money Ball” type of baseball strategies did not work well in the Major League Playoffs, the NCAA Tournament presented its own unique differences and required more than the Four Factors to determine winners when only the good to great teams remain.

The current formula for R+T consists of counting stats, but we have realized for some time that rate stats are much more accurate.  Using baseball as an example, a counting stat would be Johnny Horsehide hitting 43 home runs and driving in 118 runs.  These two stats might lead the Majors, but these stats may not reveal what we want them to reveal.  Gary Goodeye might hit just 34 home runs and drive in 95 runs, but Good Ole Gary might be a better home run hitter than Johnny.  How many times did Horsehide come to the plate?  What if Horsehide walked 34 times in 702 plate appearances while playing for a team that had three all-stars hitting in front of him, all of whom have on-base percentages of .400 or better?

What if Goodeye had 650 plate appearances playing on a team that was quite weak offensively?  Let’s say his teammates that batted in front of him had one-base percentages between .320 and .335.  Let’s say that Goodeye didn’t always get good pitches when he appeared in the batter’s box, and he walked 125 times.

Now, if we look at the number of home runs hit per at bat or plate appearances that did not end in a walk (or hit by pitch or sacrifice), we will see that Goodeye actually hit home runs at a slightly better rate than Horsehide.  As for runs batted in, that statistic is close to meaningless, because in order to drive runs in, runners must be on base.  So, the RBI stat is more reliant on the other players on the team.  It could be that Goodeye drove in runners better than Horsehide, because when we look at how many runners were on base and what base they were on, Goodeye might have had a better percentage at driving those runners in.

Back to basketball.  A team with a rebounding advantage of 43-37 has a +6 margin.  A team with a rebounding advantage of 35-30 has a +5 margin.  Using counting stats, the 43-37 team is one better than the 35-30 team.  But, the 35-30 team rebounded 53.85% of the missed shots, while the 43-37 team only rebounded 53.75% of the shots.  So, the 35-30 team is a little better than the 43-37 team on the surface.

However, it is harder to get offensive rebounds than it is to get defensive rebounds.  In fact, data throughout the calculated history of college basketball shows that an offensive rebound is worth better than 2 1/2 defensive rebounds.  The Four Factors breaks rebounding rate down into offensive and defensive rates.  

Let’s say that in a game,  Team A shot 25 of 60 for 41.7% while shooting 16-22 at the foul line for 72.7%.  Team B shot 28 of 58 for 48.3% while shooting 10-17 at the foul line for 58.8%.  Team A hit one more three point basket than Team B and one by a point.  

Now, let’s look at the rebounding for this game.  First, there were five dead ball rebounds, which we do not count as actual rebounds.  The statistical rules in basketball is that for every missed shot, there must be a rebound.  When a player is at the foul line for two shots, and he misses the first shot, there is not a real rebound.  The foul shooting team gets credited with a dead ball rebound.

To the contrary, team rebounds do count, because these are rebounds in which possession is determined.  When a missed shot ends up out of bounds before possession can be guaranteed, the team that gets possession out of bounds receives an offensive rebound.

In this game after removing the five dead ball rebounds, there were 73 rebounds to be had.  When Team A shot, there were 39 potential rebounds following misses, while when Team B shot, there were 34 potential rebounds following misses.

Looking at the stats, Team A finished with 13 offensive rebounds and 23 defensive rebounds for 36 total rebounds.  Team B finished with 11 offensive rebounds and 26 defensive rebounds for 37 total rebounds.

Team B had a counting rebounding margin of +1, while Team A had a margin of -1.  However, let’s now look at the percentage of offensive rebounds each team enjoyed.  Team A had 13 offensive rebounds out of 39 missed shots, which is 33.3% of the missed shots at their offensive end.  Team B had 11 offensive rebounds out of 34 missed shots for 32.4% of the missed shots at their offensive end. 

Looking at the rate stats, Team A may have retrieved fewer total rebounds than Team B, but they were actually the better rebounding team in this game by almost 1%.

The rate data is obviously more telling than counting data, but how can we determine a point value to substitute rate data for counting data in our R+T Rating, which in the past has picked a lot of surprise NCAA Tournament winners?

We’ve been back-testing values daily for two months.  We had to include a constant in our formulas to smooth out the results to make the numbers mean something.  Without the constant, the results were too far apart to mean something.  Tiny differences led to major spreads, and that did not tell us what we wanted.  

After about 150 to 175 different attempts, we believe (HOPE) that we have finally had a breakthrough.  The following formula will be explained after we reveal it:

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

This formula now refers to Rate Stats.  The “R” in the formula now stands for Rebounding Rate.  This is a combination of both offensive and defensive rebounding rate and it is a deviation from the norm and not just a percentage.  The norm in our experiment is 28.1%.  If a team has an offensive rebounding rate above this number, it is above average, and if it is below this number, it is below average.  Thus, the norm for defensive rebounding rate is the opposite of the above number, or 71.9%.  We then calculate our R part of the formula by taking each team’s offensive rate minus 28.1 plus their defensive rate minus 71.9 and then add the two results and divide by 2.

Example: Today, Houston has an offensive rebounding rate of 38.5%, which is 10.4% higher than average (we experimented with using the actual percentage better which would have been 37% better than average, but we never arrived at a usable final number doing so.)  Houston’s defensive rebounding rate is 74.5%, which is 2.6% better than average. 

We then take both numbers (+10.4 & +2.6), sum the numbers, and divide by 2 to get +6.5.  That would be the R number for Houston in the new formula.

Let’s now update our formula:

((6.5*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

The rest of this formula uses the same system as above.  The norm for steals (S) is 9.2% for both offense and defense.

Houston has a 7.4% steal rate, which is 1.8% below average.  Houston’s opponents have a 7.5% steal rate against them, which is 1.7% above average for Houston.  Once again, we update the formula.

 

((6.5*8)+(-1.8*2+((5- [-1.7])*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

 

Now, we need Turnover rates, both offensive and defensive.  The norm for turnover rate is 16.9%.  Obviously, the lower the offensive turnover rate is, the better, and the higher the defensive turnover rate is, the better.  Houston’s offensive turnover rate is 14.9%, which is 2.0% better than average.  The Cougars’ defensive turnover rate is 15.8%, which is 1.1% below average.  We sum the two numbers and divide by 2:  2.0 + (-1.1) = 0.9 and divided by 2 = 0.45.  The 0.45 is now our T in the equation and we are ready to solve the equation.  The 2.75 by the way is our constant that when used brings the results into what we hope is a usable formula.

 

((6.5*8)+(-1.8*2+((5- [-1.7])*2)+(.45*4)))/2.75

 

We will simplify the formula in case you have math anxiety like one of our PiRate lasses.

 

((52)+(-3.6+(6.7*2)+(1.8)))/2.75

 

(52+9.8+1.8)/2.75

 

63.6/2.75 = 23.13

 

We will have some growing pains with this new formula, and there’s a good chance that the numbers will be tweaked in the future, but this is the Rate Version of the R+T Rating that we will use in the NCAA Tournament.  Because it is an experiment, we will also use the original R+T formula when we issue our Bracketnomics 2020 edition.

 

Here are the two formulas together for you to compare.

 

Original R+T using actual counting margins and averages

 

(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T

R = Rebounding Margin
S = Average Steals Per Game
T = Turnover Margin

 

New Experimental R+T using rate the percentage number difference from the norm

 

((R*8)+(S*2+((5-Opp S)*2)+(T*4)))/2.75

The 2020 Norms

Offensive Rebounding:        28.1%

Defensive Rebounding:       71.9%

Steals (O&D):                         9.2%

Turnovers (O&D)                16.9%

 

 

 

 

 

Older Posts »

Blog at WordPress.com.