The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 21, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Tuesday, March 21, 2023

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CharlotteRadford3.7
Oklahoma St.North Texas5.3
OregonWisconsin5.0
Southern UtahEastern Kentucky4.1

March 8, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/8/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3MarquetteKansas St.TennesseeGonzaga
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5San Diego St.Miami (Fla)TCUSaint Mary’s
6Iowa St.DukeCreightonTexas A&M
7KentuckyMichigan St.NorthwesternMaryland
8IllinoisIowaMissouriArkansas
9Florida AtlanticBoise St.AuburnProvidence
10MemphisWest VirginiaNorth Carolina St.USC
11PittsburghRutgersMississippi St.NevadaWisconsinPenn St.
12Oral RobertsVCUDrakeCharleston
13Utah ValleyToledoIonaYale
14LouisianaFurmanUC Santa BarbaraColgate
15Kennesaw St.VermontUNC AshevilleMontana St.
16N. KentuckyTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.GramblingHowardFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St., USC, Pittsburgh, Rutgers

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Arizona St., Oklahoma St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

March 7, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 8, 2023

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Alcorn St.Texas Southern2.9
Arizona St.Oregon St.11.3
ColgateLafayette9.4
Colorado St.Fresno St.2.2
DavidsonSt. Bonaventure2.7
DuquesneLa Salle6.6
Florida Intl.Louisiana Tech-3.7
George MasonRichmond1.6
George WashingtonSaint Joseph’s-0.8
GeorgiaLSU-0.7
GramblingBethune Cookman11.2
HowardSouth Carolina St.8.2
IonaMount St. Mary’s13.8
Montana St.Northern Arizona6.7
NebraskaMinnesota7.3
New MexicoWyoming8.1
North CarolinaBoston College10.9
North Carolina CentralDelaware St.12.9
North Carolina St.Virginia Tech1.8
Oklahoma St.Oklahoma1.3
PittsburghGeorgia Tech7.5
RiceUTSA5.6
RiderMarist6.5
Seton HallDePaul7.5
South CarolinaMississippi-6.4
St. John’sButler3.2
SyracuseWake Forest-2.4
Texas A&M-CCNorthwestern St.1.3
UNLVAir Force5.3
UtahStanford1.8
VillanovaGeorgetown10.7
WashingtonColorado-4.7
Washington St.California13.6
West VirginiaTexas Tech2.9
Western KentuckyUTEP1.0
WisconsinOhio St.-1.4

Coming Later Today: Conference Tournament Schedules with TV & Updated Bracketology

March 6, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:19 am
Date3/6/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3MarquetteKansas St.TennesseeGonzaga
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5San Diego St.Saint Mary’sMiami (Fla)TCU
6Iowa St.DukeCreightonTexas A&M
7KentuckyMichigan St.NorthwesternMaryland
8IllinoisIowaMissouriArkansas
9Florida AtlanticBoise St.AuburnProvidence
10MemphisWest VirginiaNorth Carolina St.USC
11PittsburghRutgersMississippi St.NevadaWisconsinPenn St.
12Oral RobertsVCUDrakeHofstra
13Utah ValleyToledoIonaLouisiana
14YaleFurmanUC Santa BarbaraKennesaw St.
15ColgateVermontMontana St.Youngstown St.
16UNC AshevilleTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.GramblingHowardFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St., USC, Pittsburgh, Rutgers

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Arizona St., Oklahoma St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

March 5, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:18 am
Date3/5/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasUCLA
2PurdueTexasBaylorArizona
3MarquetteKansas St.TennesseeGonzaga
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5San Diego St.Saint Mary’sIowa St.Miami (Fla)
6TCUCreightonKentuckyDuke
7Texas A&MMichigan St.IowaNorthwestern
8MarylandMissouriIllinoisArkansas
9Florida AtlanticBoise St.AuburnProvidence
10West VirginiaMemphisUSCRutgers
11North Carolina St.PittsburghMississippi St.NevadaUtah St.Arizona St.
12Oral RobertsHofstraVCUBradley
13Kennesaw St.Utah ValleyToledoIona
14LouisianaYaleUC Santa BarbaraFurman
15ColgateE. WashingtonVermontYoungstown St.
16UNC AshevilleGramblingHowardTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.Fairleigh-Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: USC, Rutgers, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Utah St., Arizona St.

First 4 Out: Wisconsin, Oklahoma St., Penn St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

March 3, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:27 am
Date3/3/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3Kansas St.TennesseeMarquetteGonzaga
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5TCUSan Diego St.Saint Mary’sMiami (Fla)
6CreightonKentuckyIowa St.Duke
7Michigan St.Texas A&MMarylandIowa
8NorthwesternMissouriIllinoisBoise St.
9ProvidenceArkansasFlorida AtlanticMemphis
10North Carolina St.NevadaUSCWest Virginia
11AuburnPittsburghMississippi St.RutgersArizona St.Wisconsin
12Oral RobertsBradleyVCUIona
13Southern Miss.HofstraToledoUtah Valley
14FurmanUC-IrvineColgateYoungstown St.
15Kennesaw St.VermontE. WashingtonPenn
16UNC AshevilleGramblingTexas A&M-CCMorehead St.HowardFairleigh-Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: USC, West Virginia, Auburn, Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Rutgers, Arizona St., Wisconsin

First 4 Out: North Carolina, Utah St., Penn State, Michigan

Next 4 Out: Oklahoma St., Oregon, Clemson, New Mexico

February 27, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/27/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3Kansas St.TennesseeMarquetteGonzaga
4IndianaConnecticutXavierIowa St.
5VirginiaMiami (Fla)TCUSan Diego St.
6Saint Mary’sCreightonNorthwesternMaryland
7KentuckyIllinoisMichigan St.Duke
8ProvidenceTexas A&MArkansasIowa
9RutgersMissouriNevadaNorth Carolina St.
10Florida AtlanticAuburnBoise St.USC
11Mississippi St.West VirginiaPittsburghMemphisWisconsinOklahoma St.
12Oral RobertsVCUBradleyHofstra
13Southern Miss.Utah ValleyToledoIona
14Kennesaw St.UC-IrvineColgateFurman
15E. WashingtonVermontPennYoungstown St.
16UNC AshevilleTexas A&M-CCMorehead St.GramblingHowardFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Boise St., USC, Mississippi St., West Virginia

Last 4 In: Pittsburgh, Memphis, Wisconsin, Oklahoma St.

First 4 Out: Arizona St., Michigan, North Carolina, Penn St.

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Utah St., New Mexico, Texas Tech

February 26, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 26, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
BradleyDrake1.7
CanisiusFairfield0.9
ColoradoUCLA-6.6
DuquesneDavidson5.1
GeorgetownProvidence-9.4
Illinois ChicagoSouthern Illinois-7.2
Illinois St.Evansville9.1
Indiana St.Missouri St.7.3
IonaSiena10.3
MarylandNorthwestern5.5
MemphisCincinnati5.6
MichiganWisconsin5.2
Murray St.Valparaiso5.5
NiagaraSaint Peter’s5.5
Northern IowaBelmont-2.2
Ohio St.Illinois-0.8
Penn St.Rutgers0.6
QuinnipiacManhattan9.5
RiderMount St. Mary’s8.1
St. BonaventureSaint Joseph’s3.8
StanfordWashington4.0
Stephen F. AustinCal Baptist4.0
TulaneWichita St.6.0
TulsaCentral Florida-12.5

February 24, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/24/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2TexasUCLAArizonaBaylor
3MarquetteVirginiaKansas St.Tennessee
4Iowa St.IndianaGonzagaConnecticut
5Miami (Fla)XavierSaint Mary’sCreighton
6San Diego St.IllinoisTCUNorthwestern
7DukeMarylandProvidenceTexas A&M
8Michigan St.ArkansasIowaNorth Carolina St.
9AuburnKentuckyRutgersMissouri
10Florida AtlanticPittsburghNevadaBoise St.
11MemphisOklahoma St.West VirginiaUSCMississippi St.Wisconsin
12Oral RobertsDrakeToledoMarshall
13HofstraKennesaw St.VCUIona
14ColgateUtah ValleyUC-IrvineEastern Washington
15PennCleveland St.VermontSamford
16UNC AshevilleNorthwestern St.Morehead St.HowardAlcorn St.St. Francis (PA)

Last 4 Byes: Nevada, Boise St., Memphis, Oklahoma St.

Last 4 In: West Virginia, USC, Mississippi St., Wisconsin

First 4 Out: Utah St., North Carolina, Texas Tech, Michigan

Next 4 Out: Clemson, New Mexico, Penn St., Arizona St.

What Is My Process?

I have been asked by multiple people how I make my bracketology. It is a multi-step process. I use the same data that the NCAA Selection Committee uses–Net Ratings, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, Eye Test, etc. that the Committee uses.

I begin by choosing the one-bid conference representatives. Each time, I use the team that is in first place at the time. If two or more teams are tied for first, I choose the team with the most current success. Most of these teams automatically move to the 12-16 seed lines. They will be compared to each other and seeded 12 through 16. A couple (like Florida Atlantic this year) may move up. If enough move up, then the at-large field may feature two or even four 12-seeds, but in most years, the last 4 teams in the field will be the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th best 11-seeds.

The next step in the process is to pick the teams that are obviously getting bids from the multiple bid conferences. These include teams like Virginia, Marquette, Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, and UCLA among others at the present time. After that, I then choose about 20 other teams that represent the Bubble. From these 20 Bubble teams, I will closely examine the resumes of each, ranking them from 1 to 20. The big question with the Bubble is, “how many are needed to get to 68 total teams?” This week, it was seven. Seven teams made the field. Eight teams fell into first 4 out or next 4 out, while the other five would be placed in an under consideration list and needing a lot of help. Michigan had been in the under consideration group for weeks until recent victories allowed the Wolverines to jump up to first 4 out status. A couple more wins, and the Maize and Blue might find themselves in the Field.

Once I have the 68 teams chosen, and I have the 12-16 seeds filled in (22 teams), the remaining 46 teams are ranked as I believe the Committee will rank them. When you see my seed lines, they are in the order of my rankings, so that looking at today’s #3 seeds, Marquette is my top 3-seed team. Tennessee has fallen to the last 3-seed team. I do not alter my seed lines to prevent teams from the same conference from playing in the first round. If two Big 12 teams are shown playing in the Round of 64, the Committee will change the S-Curve. I’ll leave the teams where they finish in my rankings.

If I could change one thing in how the Selection Committee chooses the at-large teams, it would be to add conference record into the equation. If the third place team in the ACC beats the sixth place team both times in the regular season and finishes three games ahead in the standings, that should at least mean as much as out of conference results. In my mind, a 13-7 ACC team that sweeps a 10-10 ACC team has proven itself to be the better of the two teams. Yet, every year, the Committee takes one of these teams that finished behind another and that lose to the other team that did not receive a bid. The Committee tends to give more weight to out of conference games in November and December than conference games in January and February.

Championship Fortnight Begins Monday

The greatest five weeks of college basketball action start Monday night when the first conference tournament action begins. The Atlantic Sun Tournament begins with the top 10 finishers in the regular season qualifying. Team #9 will host Team #10 and Team #7 will host Team #8.

The #9 vs. #10 winner will then play the #1 seed, and the #7 vs. #8 winner will then play the #2 seed in the quarterfinals. The #3 seed will play the #6 seed, and the #4 seed will play the #5 seed. Unlike most leagues, this conference will then re-seed the teams, like the NFL Playoffs, in the semifinal round. All A-Sun Tournament games will be played at the home gym of the better seed.

Three more tournaments begin on Tuesday. The Horizon League’s first round will find the #6 through 11 seeds playing to make the quarterfinals, while the top 5 seeds receive first round byes. First Round and Quarterfinal Round games will be played on the better seeds’ home floors, with the semifinals and finals moving to Indianapolis.

The Patriot League will take place exclusively on the better seeds’ home floors. Tuesday’s first round games will see #10 playing at #7 and #9 playing at #8, or a normal first round bracket in a 10-team field.

The Sun Belt Conference features all 14 teams playing in beautiful Pensacola, Florida. The first round begins Tuesday with the #11 seed playing #14 and the #12 seed playing #13. This will be a hotly contested tournament for the one bid, as there are four teams in this league (Marshall, Southern Miss, Louisiana, and James Madison) talented enough to beat a single digit seed in the Round of 64. If Marshall wins the automatic bid, the Thundering Herd’s R+T Rating is going to be high enough to be considered a dark horse for the Sweet 16.

Check back daily once conference tournament action begins. The PiRate Ratings will have daily updates.

February 20, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:00 am
Date2/20/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2TexasBaylorUCLAArizona
3TennesseeKansas St.Iowa St.Virginia
4GonzagaMarquetteXavierIndiana
5ConnecticutSaint Mary’sIowaCreighton
6TCUSan Diego St.NorthwesternIllinois
7ProvidenceDukeMarylandIowa
8RutgersMichigan St.North Carolina St.Texas A&M
9AuburnMissouriArkansasBoise St.
10KentuckyNevadaOklahoma St.Pittsburgh
11Florida AtlanticMemphisMississippi St.USCWest VirginiaWisconsin
12Oral RobertsDrakeSouthern Miss.Toledo
13VCUHofstraUtah ValleyUC-Irvine
14Kennesaw St.IonaSamfordColgate
15E. WashingtonPennVermontYoungstown St.
16UNCATexas A&M-CCMorehead St.Alcorn St.HowardFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Nevada, Oklahoma St., Pittsburgh, Memphis

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., USC, West Virginia, Wisconsin

First 4 Out: Utah St., New Mexico, North Carolina, North Texas

Next 4 Out: Penn St., Texas Tech, Arizona St., Oregon

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