The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 505 Sweet 16 Criteria Reveal

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:00 am

If you get to start anew with your brackets in whatever pool you are playing in as a participant, we have updated our PiRate Ratings Criteria for the Sweet 16.
If you played along with us, you should have 10 teams left in your Sweet 16, having 26 of the 32 first round winners. If you are in a league where you get one point for each winner that goes from 64 to 32, and two points for every correct Sweet 16 team, then you should be sitting pretty with 46 points. Hopefully, we will help you score some 3-point winners the next two nights, whether you must stick with your original picks, or you get to start over with the 16 remaining teams.

To understand our methods if you don’t already know, refer to this primer: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/bracketnomics-505-the-advanced-level-course-in-bracket-selection/

Here is a breakdown of each game for the next two nights, followed by an update at how the Elite 8 and Final Four look using our criteria.

Oregon vs. Michigan
Power Conference: Both teams

Strength of Schedule: Very slight edge to Michigan, but not enough to matter much

R+T Rating: Large edge to Oregon, as the Ducks’ R+T is 14.7 to the Wolverines’ 3.2. This means that on average, Oregon will have an opportunity through superior rebounding, ball-steals, and overall turnover differential to outscore Michigan by 11.5 points. There is a caveat, as the Ducks are missing a key component in Chris Boucher.
Ability to Win Away from Home: Oregon 14-5/Michigan 11-8. The Ducks have a decent advantage here, but not enough to move this game to the win column.

Winning Streak(s): The Ducks won 17 games in a row at one point this season and eight in a row another time, while Michigan had two, five-game winning streaks. Once again, Oregon has the advantage here, but we cannot annoint the Ducks winners just yet. Not having Boucher removes a lot of these advantages three rounds into the Big Dance.

Since the strengths of schedule are similar, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Michigan = 8.9, Oregon = 13.8, Ducks look better here
FG% Differential: Michigan = 1.9, Oregon = 7.8, Ducks look much better here, as UM fails to qualify
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 68

This is a tough game to figure out, because Boucher’s absence makes Oregon less than what the stats say. Still, the Ducks come out as the superior team based on how we use the criteria. In our original picks, we had Louisville knocking Oregon out of the tournament in this round, but the Cardinals were sent packing last weekend.

PiRate Criteria Pick: OREGON

 

Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Power Conference: West Virginia is, Gonzaga is not. A slight edge to the Mountaineers

Strength of Schedule: WVU 55.55. Gonzaga 54.02, a slight edge to the Mountaineers

R+T Rating: WVU 19.1, Gonzaga 21.2, a push when SOS is applied

Ability to Win Away from Home: WVU 11-6, Gonzaga 19-0, even with SOS factored into the equation, Gonzaga has the advantage here.

Winning Streak(s): WVU 8 & 4, Gonzaga 29 & 5, Gonzaga enjoys a small advantage

We must handicap these stats with Gonzaga playing in a weaker conference and a slightly weaker schedule
Scoring Margin: WVU 15.3, Gonzaga 22.8, a push
FG% Differential: WVU 3.4, Gonzaga 14.5
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 71

This is where we see another #1 seed going down. Gonzaga’s main Achilles Heel is their conference, where the WCC has two other quality teams. Of course, teams like Butler, George Mason, VCU, and Wichita State have advanced to the Final Four, but the percentages say that these are exceptions and not the norm. When you are trying to win a contest by going with the percentages, you go with the norm unless you have a major reason not to do so. When looking at the obvious way this game will deviate from the norm, it comes from the vaunted WVU full-court press, something that Gonzaga has not faced from a quality team this year. It is our belief that GU will commit very few turnovers against the press and even capitalize with a couple of easy baskets, making it look like to the casual fan that the press is not working. However, we believe it will take the Bulldogs out of their offense just enough to cause them to rush and make poor shot selections, and it will also begin to wear their bigger, bulkier players down in the second half. A fatigued team is only a shell of itself, and once GU is fatigued, WVU will pull away and win this game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WEST VIRGINIA

Kansas vs. Purdue
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: KU 58.11, PU 55.83, a decided advantage for the Jayhawks

R+T Rating: KU 12.3, PU 15.5, a credible advantage for the Boilermakers

Ability to Win Away from Home: KU 16-3, PU 12-5, a tiny advantage for KU

Winning Streak(s): KU 18 & 8, PU 7 & 6, KU has the advantage, but this isn’t overwhelming since PU has two 6+ streaks, and that is all we are looking for in this criterion

Since the strengths of schedule favor KU enough to matter, we must handicap the following stats.
Scoring Margin: KU 11.4, PU 12.6, with the handicap, KU has a minor advantage here
FG% Differential: KU 7.3, PU 6.4, a slight edge to the Jayhawks
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 72 which will favor KU in the 2nd half

In previous years where Purdue was very good, we would call for Kansas to easily win this game because in the past, Purdue did not own good R+T numbers. In fact, they were downright awful. However, this year is very different up in West Lafayatte, where Purdue has an R+T number strong enough to reach the Final Four. Unfortunately, Kansas has the criteria strong enough to win the National Championship, and thus we must go with the team that is only a tad better in this game. A Boilermaker win would not be a surprise at all, but we must go with the percentages.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KANSAS (but this should be an outstanding game)

Arizona vs. Xavier
Power Conference: Both (in recent years, we would discount the Pac-12 some, but not this year. Three league teams made the Sweet 16.

Strength of Schedule: Arizona 58.17, Xavier 58.70, a wash

R+T Rating: Arizona 18.0, Xavier 15.2, the Wildcats with an ever so slight advantage that is not enough to mean much

Ability to Win Away from Home: Arizona 17-3, Xavier 11-9, this is a big advantage for ‘Zona

Winning Streak(s): Arizona 15 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6, Another tiny advantage to the Wildcats

Since the strengths of schedule are almost identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Arizona 11.0, Xavier 4.1, the Wildcats have a major advantage here, as XU’s scoring margin is well beneath the threshold of a Final Four contender.
FG% Differential: Arizona 6.0, Xavier 0.9, another big edge for Arizona
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67

This one appears to be headed to a double-digit win for the higher-seeded team. Add on to the criteria the fact that Xavier has not been the same since Edmund Sumner was lost for the year at the end of January, and this game looks like a potential breeze for Arizona.
PiRate Criteria Pick: ARIZONA (by double digits)

 

North Carolina vs. Butler
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UNC 59.00, BU 59.04, a total push

R+T Rating: UNC 31.1, BU 9.5, do we really need to go on after this criterion shows the Tar Heels with a chance on average to score 20 more points on rebounds, steals, and turnovers?

Ability to Win Away from Home: UNC 13-7, BU 12-5, pretty much even here

Winning Streak(s): UNC 13 & 7, BU 12 & 5, another push

Since the strengths of schedule are identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: UNC 14.8, BU 7.8, Give the Heels a little more advantage here
FG% Differential: UNC 5.5, BU 3.7, more props for the Heels
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 70 (Butler will want to slow the pace, but they will have to play catchup)

Pirate Criteria Pick: NORTH CAROLINA

Baylor vs. South Carolina
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: BU 59.40, USC 56.23, the Bears have a little advantage here

R+T Rating: BU 19.3, USC 10.4, Baylor with decent advantage in this one

Ability to Win Away from Home: BU 12-5, USC 11-7, another tilt to the Bears

Winning Streak(s): BU 15 & 5, USC 8 & 5, BU with yet another advantage

Since the strengths of schedule favors Baylor, the following stats must be handicapped a little
Scoring Margin: BU 10.1, USC 7.9, the criteria keeps tilting green
FG% Differential: BU 7.2, USC 1.9, this continues the trend
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67, Baylor will conrol the pace.

PiRate Criteria Pick: BAYLOR

 

Kentucky vs. UCLA
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UK 58.63, UCLA 54.00, a nice advantage for the Wildcats, but UCLA still meets the minimum number for Final Four consideration, and remember UCLA won at Kentucky earlier this season

R+T Rating: UK 17.2, UCLA 10.9

Ability to Win Away from Home: UK 16-3, UCLA 14-3, nothing to learn here

Winning Streak(s): UK 13 & 7, UCLA 13 & 10, not much here either

We must handicap the following stats in UK’s favor fde to the strengths of schedule
Scoring Margin: UK 13.9, UCLA 15.0, basically a wash
FG% Differential: UK 5.4, UCLA 10.2, The Bruins pick up a big advantage here with Championship-caliber differential
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 74, expect the most up-tempo game of the Sweet 16, and it could even top 75.

Face it: this is the game that is going to make this round. The winner most likely plays North Carolina in the Elite 8, making for a fantastic 48-hours in Memphis, where they could move these games to the Liberty Bowl and still not have enough seats for the fans that want to get in. Think of this game like the second Ali-Frazier fight. Or, if you are a Bruin fan over the age of 55, be forewarned and remember that Houston beat your Bruins in the 1967-68 regular season before meeting up with the worst ever whipping by a number one team in the history of the game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KENTUCKY — Until the Wildcats are knocked out of the tournament, they have the best resume when comparing it to past National Champions.

 

Florida vs. Wisconsin
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: Fla 59.34, UW 54.79, The Gators have a decided advantage

R+T Rating: Fla 3.3, UW 3.3 This is a dirty wash, as neither team can expect to be a Championship team with these R+T ratings.

Ability to Win Away from Home: Fla 17-7, UW 12-7, Florida played a lot of neutral site games near home when their arena was not ready following remodeling. This becomes a wash

Winning Streak(s): Fla. 9 & 7, UW 9 & 8, a wash

Since the strengths of schedule favor the Gators, the following stats must be handicapped in UF’s favor. Scoring Margin: UF 6.2, UW 9.2, a wash
FG% Differential: UF 4.6, UW 4.2, a small edge for the Gators
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 69 We look for the Badgers to slow the tempo a little

When Florida isn’t playing Vanderbilt, they look like Final Four contenders. Actually, two of the three losses to the Commodores came after the Gators lost John Egbunu for the season due to injury, and UF went from 23-5 to 24-8 after that loss. This discounts the Gators’ results enough to make up for the schedule strength favor. In other words, this is a game where you flip a coin. We do not use the Four Factors in this criteria selection process, but if we were to use them for this game, it would just add a bunch of balance, as the teams would come out dead even. We must select somebody to go on and lose to Baylor Sunday, and just because they have a little more recent NCAA Tournament success, we will go with the Badgers.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WISCONSIN –but this is really a tie

Elite 8 to Final Four
Baylor over Wisconsin
Arizona over West Virginia
Kentucky over North Carolina
Kansas over Oregon

Semifinals
Baylor over Arizona
Kentucky over Kansas

Championship
Kentucky over Baylor

Note: When we first revealed the criteria for all 68 teams in the dance, we listed the top 10 teams with the best matching criteria to past champions. The top 6 teams in this list, and 8 of the 10 made the Sweet 16. Here is that top 10 again.
1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Baylor
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Villanova
9. Kansas
10. Purdue

 

March 15, 2017

Red-White-Blue Ratings For Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Games

 

Team Team Red White Blue
Notre Dame Princeton 6 6 2
Virginia UNC-Wilmington 7 9 9
Butler Winthrop 10 9 10
Gonzaga South Dakota St. 24 21 15
West Virginia Bucknell 13 12 11
Florida East Tennessee St. 10 12 13
Minnesota Middle Tennessee 2 1 3
Northwestern Vanderbilt -1 -1 -5
Maryland Xavier -1 -1 -1
Villanova Mount St. Mary’s 22 23 21
Saint Mary’s VCU 5 6 4
Purdue Vermont 9 9 5
Florida St. Florida Gulf Coast 13 14 11
Wisconsin Virginia Tech 4 4 4
Arizona North Dakota 15 15 14
Iowa St. Nevada 6 6 6

November 13, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 15-19, 2016

After one of the most contentious elections in over 100 years, the college football world decided to make Tuesday’s vote of the College Football Playoff Committee just as controversial before it can be released.

Truth be told, there only needs to be two playoff bids issued this year. The first one should go to Alabama as the number one seed, and the second one should go to the College All-Star Team as the number two seed. This Crimson Tide team has the look of one of John Wooden’s UCLA basketball teams during the Alcindor-Walton years. Coach Nick Saban’s team has pulled away from the pack now that Clemson, Michigan, and Washington fell Saturday.

There is still a lot to be decided, and there are some interesting scenarios left before four teams can earn golden tickets in December. Let’s take a look at each conference.

American Athletic
Temple and South Florida are tied for first in the East at 5-1 with Central Florida a game back at 4-2. Temple has the inside track to take the divisional crown, as the Owls have a road game against Tulane and a home game with East Carolina left on their schedule and hold the tiebreaker over the both contenders.

Navy leads the West and must lose to both East Carolina and SMU in order for either Houston or Tulsa to win the division. Memphis and Tulsa have such slim chances of winning the division in a multiple tie that it is not worth mentioning all the possibilities that must happen to make it real.

Atlantic Coast
Clemson’s loss to Pittsburgh is not enough to push Louisville over the top in the Atlantic Division. The Cardinals need for Wake Forest to upset the Tigers this weekend, and that is not likely to happen. Louisville could profit off a Clemson loss in the ACC Championship Game. If the Cardinals win out and CU loses again, UL could move into the playoffs without appearing in a championship game.

The Coastal Division did not change even though the two co-leaders were both upset. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are tied at 5-2. If the two stay tied at either 6-2 or 5-3, then the Hokies win the tiebreaker. Pittsburgh and Miami can both get to 5-3, but Virginia Tech wins any and all tiebreakers against any possible 5-3 opponent.

Big 12
Oklahoma leads at 7-0, but Oklahoma State and West Virginia both have just one conference loss and are still alive in the conference championship race. The Sooners close with West Virginia in Morgantown and Oklahoma State in Norman.

The three teams cannot finished tied at 8-1, because with the Sooners playing both one-loss teams, one of the three teams must lose a second conference game. There is a scenario where all three teams could finish tied with two losses, but it is not all that likely. If Oklahoma loses to both contenders to drop to 7-2, and if Oklahoma State loses at TCU this weekend, while West Virginia loses at Iowa State, then OSU will be the Big 12 Champion.

Big Ten
Oh, did this past weekend really throw a monkey wrench into the workings. With Iowa beating Michigan, it opened up the possibility that Penn State could sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game as East Division champ. If the Nittany Lions win out against Rutgers and Michigan State, and if Ohio State beats Michigan, then Coach James Franklin will lead Penn State to Indianapolis on December 3. Whether Ohio State can win out to finish 11-1, miss the conference title game, and still get a bid to the Playoffs is unsure.

In the West, there are even more possible scenarios than in the East. Wisconsin is the only divisionteam that controls its own destiny. If the Badgers beat Purdue and Minnesota , they go to Indy. If UW loses a game, and Nebraska beats Maryland and Iowa, the Cornhuskers take the flag. Then, there is the possibility that if both Wisconsin and Nebraska lose, there are scenarios where Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern could make it to the Championship Game.

Conference USA
The two division races are basically decided after the two division leaders won on Saturday. Western Kentucky has one game left at Marshall on November 26. If the 6-1 Hilltoppers win that game, they are East Champs. If WKU falls in Huntington, then Old Dominion can win the division title by closing with wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida International.

Louisiana Tech clinched the West with their win over UTSA Saturday. The Bulldogs have won seven games in a row after starting the year at 1-3, including pinning the lone conference loss on WKU.

Mid-American
You probably haven’t followed the race in the MAC East much this year, because the other division has gotten all the headlines. However, one of the wackiest ever races in the history of college football could be taking place on this side of the league. There is a chance that a team that began the year losing its first six games, including a home loss to Eastern Illinois, could find itself in the MAC Championship Game! Miami of Ohio was 0-6 after losing big at Akron in early October. Since then, the Redhawks have reeled off five consecutive wins and will become bowl eligible if they beat Ball State a week from Tuesday.

Ohio has the inside advantage to winning the East Division, but should the Bobcats end the year by losing at Central Michigan (who needs to win to become bowl eligible) and at home to Akron (who will need to win to become bowl eligible), then Miami will earn the right to play the behemoth in the other division.

That behemoth is Western Michigan, the number 14 team in this week’s AP Poll and current leader of the pack among the Group of 5 leagues for the Cotton Bowl bid. Before we annoint the Broncos into the Dallas classic, they must beat Toledo on Black Friday and then win the MAC Championship Game. If Toledo wins out over Ball State and WMU, then the Rockets will play in the conference title game.

Mountain West
The Mountain Division race became a bit cloudier after Wyoming lost at UNLV on Saturday. There is now a three-way tie with the Cowboys, New Mexico, and Boise State. At the moment, Boise has the clearest path to the division flag, but they must still play at Air Force. The other two contenders have tough closing schedules, as Wyoming closes with San Diego State and New Mexico, and the Lobos play at Colorado State before hosting the Cowboys. In the event there is a tie, Wyoming owns the tiebreaker over Boise State, and Boise State owns the tiebreaker over New Mexico. If the three teams finished tied with 6-2 records, it will depend on whether Wyoming’s second loss was to San Diego State or New Mexico that determines who gets the nod.

There is no trouble about the West Division race. SDSU wrapped it up about the time the Cubs won the World Series. The Aztecs will be the only division team to become bowl eligible, unless UNLV can upset Boise State and beat Nevada.

Pac-12
There is very little chance that a Pac-12 team will make the Playoffs this year after Washington fell to USC. The contending teams are now playing for a trip to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl.

In the North, it is now Washington State in the lead, but that lead could be short-lived. After winning eight consecutive games for the first time since 1930, the Cougars close with games at Colorado and at home against Washington. The game in Boulder is now the tougher game of the two, as we believe Coach Mike Leach’s club will top the Huskies in the Apple Cup game at beautiful Martin Stadium. Washington can still win the division flag by winning in the Palouse on Black Friday.

Colorado has a half-game lead over USC in the South, but the Trojans hold the tiebreaker over the Buffs should the two teams tie. CU closes with home games against WSU and Utah, and Coach Mike MacIntyre would have to become one of the leading candidates for National Coach of the Year, should CU win both of these games and claim the South crown after being picked last in the preseason.

Don’t forget Utah just yet. The Utes are a game back at 5-2 and host Oregon before heading to Boulder a week later. If Utah beats the Ducks and then knocks off CU, the Utes would own the tiebreaker over a 7-2 CU and 7-2 USC.

USC can win the South by beating UCLA this week and then hoping that both CU and Utah lose a game. One of the other two must lose because they face off, but the winner of that game will have to lose this week as well.

Southeastern
The only race is in the East, and it is now a two-team race between Florida and Tennessee. If the Gators beat LSU this weekend, they are in the SEC Championship Game for a second consecutive year. If LSU wins, and then Tennessee beats Missouri and Vanderbilt, the Vols will head to the Championship Game.

Alabama has already wrapped up the SEC West, and if they win out, they will be the heaviest favorite in the three-year existence of the Playoffs. A 15-0 Crimson Tide National Champion would have to rank up there with Miami of 2001, Nebraska of 1971 and 1995, USC of 1932 and 1972, and Army of 1944 and 1945 as the best team of all time.

Sunbelt
If you think Louisville deserves a shot at the College Football Playoffs with an 11-1 record and the lone loss at Clemson in a game that went to the final minute, then what about Troy? Troy could also finish 11-1 with its lone loss at Clemson in a game that came down to the final minute. The Trojans debuted in the AP Top 25 this week, but don’t expect this team to make it to an New Year’s 6 Bowl game, even if they win out. Western Michigan, San Diego State, and Boise State must all lose a game before Troy has a chance, and if Houston beats Louisville, the Cougars will top the Trojans as well.

Troy still has three games left on its schedule, and one of those three is a home game Thursday night against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are still undefeated in conference play, so the conference championship will be up for grabs this week.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.0 131.4 138.1 135.8
2 Ohio St. 128.9 128.3 129.5 128.9
3 Michigan 129.2 126.9 129.2 128.4
4 Louisville 129.4 125.0 129.6 128.0
5 Washington 128.0 121.0 127.4 125.5
6 Clemson 127.4 120.7 126.3 124.8
7 LSU 126.3 121.2 125.9 124.5
8 Oklahoma 121.1 119.6 120.8 120.5
9 USC 122.4 117.4 120.7 120.2
10 Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
11 Wisconsin 119.3 116.8 120.0 118.7
12 Florida St. 120.2 114.1 119.5 117.9
13 Washington St. 118.5 115.2 118.3 117.4
14 Colorado 117.8 113.5 117.7 116.4
15 North Carolina 118.2 112.5 118.1 116.3
16 Miami 118.1 112.5 117.8 116.1
17 Virginia Tech 115.9 114.6 115.9 115.5
18 Penn St. 115.0 115.9 114.8 115.2
19 Oklahoma St. 114.8 115.8 114.2 114.9
20 Texas A&M 115.6 113.7 115.0 114.8
21 Tennessee 115.7 113.2 114.8 114.6
22 Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
23 Pittsburgh 115.0 110.9 114.2 113.4
24 Western Michigan 112.7 112.3 114.3 113.1
25 Florida 112.2 113.7 110.5 112.1
26 Utah 114.1 108.8 112.7 111.9
27 West Virginia 112.1 111.5 111.7 111.8
28 Notre Dame 112.8 109.9 111.9 111.5
29 Ole Miss 112.6 108.6 111.4 110.9
30 TCU 110.6 112.1 109.7 110.8
31 Iowa 111.6 109.2 111.3 110.7
32 Texas 110.0 111.0 109.2 110.1
33 San Diego St. 109.7 108.2 111.8 109.9
34 South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
35 Georgia 109.8 108.9 109.1 109.3
36 Northwestern 110.8 107.0 109.9 109.2
37 Arkansas 111.2 106.8 109.5 109.2
38 UCLA 110.0 108.3 109.3 109.2
39 BYU 110.6 105.3 110.5 108.8
40 Baylor 108.4 109.0 108.7 108.7
41 Georgia Tech 109.9 105.9 108.9 108.2
42 Nebraska 109.1 106.5 108.8 108.1
43 Houston 107.9 107.1 109.1 108.0
44 Kansas St. 106.9 109.1 106.8 107.6
45 Temple 107.2 106.4 107.7 107.1
46 Boise St. 106.1 107.0 107.0 106.7
47 Mississippi St. 107.5 105.7 106.5 106.6
48 Western Kentucky 106.7 104.5 108.0 106.4
49 North Carolina St. 106.6 103.5 106.4 105.5
50 Michigan St. 105.9 105.0 104.3 105.1
51 Minnesota 105.5 104.3 105.0 104.9
52 Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.8 104.8
53 Texas Tech 105.3 104.6 104.2 104.7
54 Toledo 103.2 103.7 104.2 103.7
55 Duke 103.9 103.1 103.5 103.5
56 Navy 103.7 102.1 103.6 103.2
57 Memphis 103.9 102.1 102.8 103.0
58 Oregon 103.7 102.2 102.6 102.8
59 Indiana 102.5 104.1 101.9 102.8
60 Wake Forest 102.2 100.6 102.6 101.8
61 Virginia 102.8 100.1 102.0 101.6
62 Arizona St. 102.4 101.1 100.8 101.5
63 Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
64 Vanderbilt 101.8 98.9 100.5 100.4
65 South Carolina 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.2
66 Appalachian St. 99.3 100.3 101.0 100.2
67 Louisiana Tech 98.7 100.7 100.7 100.0
68 Central Florida 99.1 100.2 100.0 99.8
69 Syracuse 99.9 96.8 98.1 98.3
70 Iowa St. 98.6 98.4 97.8 98.3
71 Missouri 98.7 97.9 98.1 98.3
72 California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
73 Air Force 96.5 98.3 96.8 97.2
74 Troy 94.1 98.2 96.2 96.2
75 Maryland 95.9 98.4 94.1 96.1
76 New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
77 SMU 95.0 94.5 97.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5
79 Oregon St. 97.3 92.8 96.0 95.4
80 Boston College 95.9 94.6 95.0 95.2
81 Wyoming 94.1 94.4 94.9 94.5
82 Ohio 92.0 97.7 92.8 94.2
83 Central Michigan 93.0 94.9 93.3 93.7
84 Arizona 94.8 92.5 93.2 93.5
85 Colorado St. 92.6 94.3 93.6 93.5
86 Cincinnati 93.1 93.5 92.7 93.1
87 Arkansas St. 91.3 93.6 93.0 92.6
88 Illinois 93.0 90.0 92.0 91.7
89 Army 88.8 95.2 90.0 91.3
90 East Carolina 90.0 91.6 90.2 90.6
91 Miami (O) 89.6 91.1 91.1 90.6
92 Connecticut 90.8 89.8 90.3 90.3
93 Old Dominion 88.7 91.7 89.7 90.0
94 Purdue 90.5 89.0 89.1 89.5
95 Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
96 Middle Tennessee 88.6 90.1 88.9 89.2
97 Kent St. 87.9 89.4 88.8 88.7
98 Georgia Southern 87.1 87.7 88.8 87.9
99 UTSA 84.9 91.2 87.2 87.8
100 Eastern Michigan 86.7 88.8 87.2 87.6
101 Rutgers 88.7 86.6 87.3 87.6
102 Southern Mississippi 87.1 87.5 87.2 87.3
103 UNLV 85.8 88.6 86.2 86.9
104 Tulane 84.7 88.5 85.5 86.2
105 Idaho 83.3 88.3 85.3 85.6
106 Nevada 84.5 86.7 85.1 85.5
107 Ball St. 84.0 86.3 84.8 85.0
108 Marshall 83.2 86.6 84.0 84.6
109 South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
110 Kansas 83.5 88.1 81.2 84.3
111 San Jose St. 84.0 84.0 83.7 83.9
112 Akron 81.2 86.4 82.0 83.2
113 Bowling Green 82.8 83.6 83.1 83.2
114 Massachusetts 80.2 86.5 81.3 82.7
115 UL-Lafayette 79.5 84.3 81.1 81.7
116 Florida International 79.6 84.0 80.0 81.2
117 North Texas 79.9 82.9 80.3 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.8 80.3 80.5 80.5
119 Georgia St. 78.0 82.6 79.8 80.1
120 Charlotte 76.7 82.3 77.3 78.8
121 Fresno St. 77.3 80.8 77.0 78.4
122 Florida Atlantic 75.7 80.4 78.3 78.1
123 Buffalo 75.8 82.2 76.3 78.1
124 Rice 75.3 81.9 75.6 77.6
125 UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.8 74.4
126 New Mexico St. 71.8 74.7 72.8 73.1
127 UL-Monroe 70.2 75.4 71.0 72.2
128 Texas St. 65.9 68.4 66.8 67.0

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
Temple 107.2 106.4 107.7 107.1
Central Florida 99.1 100.2 100.0 99.8
Cincinnati 93.1 93.5 92.7 93.1
East Carolina 90.0 91.6 90.2 90.6
Connecticut 90.8 89.8 90.3 90.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 107.9 107.1 109.1 108.0
Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.8 104.8
Navy 103.7 102.1 103.6 103.2
Memphis 103.9 102.1 102.8 103.0
SMU 95.0 94.5 97.1 95.6
Tulane 84.7 88.5 85.5 86.2
         
AAC Averages 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.3
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 129.4 125.0 129.6 128.0
Clemson 127.4 120.7 126.3 124.8
Florida St. 120.2 114.1 119.5 117.9
North Carolina St. 106.6 103.5 106.4 105.5
Wake Forest 102.2 100.6 102.6 101.8
Syracuse 99.9 96.8 98.1 98.3
Boston College 95.9 94.6 95.0 95.2
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 118.2 112.5 118.1 116.3
Miami 118.1 112.5 117.8 116.1
Virginia Tech 115.9 114.6 115.9 115.5
Pittsburgh 115.0 110.9 114.2 113.4
Georgia Tech 109.9 105.9 108.9 108.2
Duke 103.9 103.1 103.5 103.5
Virginia 102.8 100.1 102.0 101.6
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.2 111.3 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 121.1 119.6 120.8 120.5
Oklahoma St. 114.8 115.8 114.2 114.9
West Virginia 112.1 111.5 111.7 111.8
TCU 110.6 112.1 109.7 110.8
Texas 110.0 111.0 109.2 110.1
Baylor 108.4 109.0 108.7 108.7
Kansas St. 106.9 109.1 106.8 107.6
Texas Tech 105.3 104.6 104.2 104.7
Iowa St. 98.6 98.4 97.8 98.3
Kansas 83.5 88.1 81.2 84.3
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.2
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 128.9 128.3 129.5 128.9
Michigan 129.2 126.9 129.2 128.4
Penn St. 115.0 115.9 114.8 115.2
Michigan St. 105.9 105.0 104.3 105.1
Indiana 102.5 104.1 101.9 102.8
Maryland 95.9 98.4 94.1 96.1
Rutgers 88.7 86.6 87.3 87.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.3 116.8 120.0 118.7
Iowa 111.6 109.2 111.3 110.7
Northwestern 110.8 107.0 109.9 109.2
Nebraska 109.1 106.5 108.8 108.1
Minnesota 105.5 104.3 105.0 104.9
Illinois 93.0 90.0 92.0 91.7
Purdue 90.5 89.0 89.1 89.5
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.3 106.9 106.9
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 106.7 104.5 108.0 106.4
Old Dominion 88.7 91.7 89.7 90.0
Middle Tennessee 88.6 90.1 88.9 89.2
Marshall 83.2 86.6 84.0 84.6
Florida International 79.6 84.0 80.0 81.2
Charlotte 76.7 82.3 77.3 78.8
Florida Atlantic 75.7 80.4 78.3 78.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 98.7 100.7 100.7 100.0
UTSA 84.9 91.2 87.2 87.8
Southern Mississippi 87.1 87.5 87.2 87.3
North Texas 79.9 82.9 80.3 81.1
Rice 75.3 81.9 75.6 77.6
UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.8 74.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.4 87.8 85.5 85.9
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.8 109.9 111.9 111.5
BYU 110.6 105.3 110.5 108.8
Army 88.8 95.2 90.0 91.3
Massachusetts 80.2 86.5 81.3 82.7
         
Independents Averages 98.1 99.2 98.4 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 92.0 97.7 92.8 94.2
Miami (O) 89.6 91.1 91.1 90.6
Kent St. 87.9 89.4 88.8 88.7
Akron 81.2 86.4 82.0 83.2
Bowling Green 82.8 83.6 83.1 83.2
Buffalo 75.8 82.2 76.3 78.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 112.7 112.3 114.3 113.1
Toledo 103.2 103.7 104.2 103.7
Northern Illinois 94.7 96.0 95.8 95.5
Central Michigan 93.0 94.9 93.3 93.7
Eastern Michigan 86.7 88.8 87.2 87.6
Ball St. 84.0 86.3 84.8 85.0
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.7 91.1 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 106.1 107.0 107.0 106.7
Air Force 96.5 98.3 96.8 97.2
New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
Wyoming 94.1 94.4 94.9 94.5
Colorado St. 92.6 94.3 93.6 93.5
Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 109.7 108.2 111.8 109.9
UNLV 85.8 88.6 86.2 86.9
Nevada 84.5 86.7 85.1 85.5
San Jose St. 84.0 84.0 83.7 83.9
Hawaii 80.8 80.3 80.5 80.5
Fresno St. 77.3 80.8 77.0 78.4
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 128.0 121.0 127.4 125.5
Washington St. 118.5 115.2 118.3 117.4
Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
Oregon 103.7 102.2 102.6 102.8
California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
Oregon St. 97.3 92.8 96.0 95.4
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 122.4 117.4 120.7 120.2
Colorado 117.8 113.5 117.7 116.4
Utah 114.1 108.8 112.7 111.9
UCLA 110.0 108.3 109.3 109.2
Arizona St. 102.4 101.1 100.8 101.5
Arizona 94.8 92.5 93.2 93.5
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.5 106.4 109.4 108.8
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 115.7 113.2 114.8 114.6
Florida 112.2 113.7 110.5 112.1
Georgia 109.8 108.9 109.1 109.3
Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
Vanderbilt 101.8 98.9 100.5 100.4
South Carolina 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.2
Missouri 98.7 97.9 98.1 98.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 138.0 131.4 138.1 135.8
LSU 126.3 121.2 125.9 124.5
Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
Texas A&M 115.6 113.7 115.0 114.8
Ole Miss 112.6 108.6 111.4 110.9
Arkansas 111.2 106.8 109.5 109.2
Mississippi St. 107.5 105.7 106.5 106.6
         
SEC Averages 112.3 110.1 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.3 100.3 101.0 100.2
Troy 94.1 98.2 96.2 96.2
Arkansas St. 91.3 93.6 93.0 92.6
Georgia Southern 87.1 87.7 88.8 87.9
Idaho 83.3 88.3 85.3 85.6
South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
UL-Lafayette 79.5 84.3 81.1 81.7
Georgia St. 78.0 82.6 79.8 80.1
New Mexico St. 71.8 74.7 72.8 73.1
UL-Monroe 70.2 75.4 71.0 72.2
Texas St. 65.9 68.4 66.8 67.0
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.1 85.7 83.5 83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.3 110.1 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 111.8 108.2 111.3 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.5 106.4 109.4 108.8
4 Big 12 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.2
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.3 106.9 106.9
6 AAC 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.3
7 Independents 98.1 99.2 98.4 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.7 91.1 91.4
10 CUSA 84.4 87.8 85.5 85.9
11 Sun Belt 82.1 85.7 83.5 83.7

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive ratings are similar to poll rankings–wins and schedule strength

These ratings are not predictive in nature

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Louisville
4 Clemson
5 Michigan
6 Wisconsin
7 Washington
8 Penn St.
9 USC
10 Colorado
11 Western Michigan
12 Washington St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Florida St.
15 Auburn
16 LSU
17 West Virginia
18 Boise St.
19 Nebraska
20 Texas A&M
21 Utah
22 Stanford
23 Tennessee
24 Florida
25 Oklahoma St.
26 South Florida
27 North Carolina
28 Virginia Tech
29 Houston
30 San Diego St.
31 Troy
32 Ole Miss
33 Pittsburgh
34 Miami (Fla)
35 Navy
36 Temple
37 Iowa
38 BYU
39 Arkansas
40 Toledo
41 Tulsa
42 Northwestern
43 Minnesota
44 Western Kentucky
45 Appalachian St.
46 Georgia
47 Kansas St.
48 Baylor
49 Georgia Tech
50 Louisiana Tech
51 TCU
52 UCLA
53 Wyoming
54 Memphis
55 Texas
56 Central Florida
57 North Carolina St.
58 Arizona St.
59 Air Force
60 Wake Forest
61 Indiana
62 Kentucky
63 California
64 Mississippi St.
65 Maryland
66 South Carolina
67 New Mexico
68 Notre Dame
69 Old Dominion
70 Texas Tech
71 Oregon
72 Ohio
73 Colorado St.
74 Duke
75 SMU
76 Vanderbilt
77 Arkansas St.
78 Idaho
79 Syracuse
80 Eastern Michigan
81 Boston College
82 Middle Tennessee
83 Oregon St.
84 Michigan St.
85 Central Michigan
86 Illinois
87 Missouri
88 Georgia Southern
89 Southern Miss.
90 UTSA
91 Army
92 Miami (O)
93 Cincinnati
94 Arizona
95 South Alabama
96 Northern Illinois
97 Utah St.
98 Akron
99 East Carolina
100 Virginia
101 Tulane
102 UL-Lafayette
103 Kent St.
104 UNLV
105 Hawaii
106 Iowa St.
107 Connecticut
108 Purdue
109 North Texas
110 Ball St.
111 Rutgers
112 UL-Monroe
113 San Jose St.
114 Charlotte
115 Marshall
116 Bowling Green
117 Nevada
118 Georgia St.
119 Florida Int’l.
120 New Mexico St.
121 Massachusetts
122 UTEP
123 Kansas
124 Florida Atlantic
125 Texas St.
126 Buffalo
127 Rice
128 Fresno St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 15
Bowling Green Kent St. -3.1 -3.8 -3.7
Central Michigan Ohio U 3.5 -0.3 3.0
         
Wednesday, November 16
Toledo Ball St. 21.7 19.9 21.9
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois -5.5 -4.7 -6.1
         
Thursday, November 17
Houston Louisville -18.5 -14.9 -17.5
Troy Arkansas St. 5.8 7.6 6.2
         
Friday, November 18
Cincinnati Memphis -7.8 -5.6 -7.1
Boise St. UNLV 23.3 21.4 23.8
         
Saturday, November 19
Oregon St. Arizona 5.5 3.3 5.8
Colorado Washington St. 2.3 1.3 2.4
Utah Oregon 13.4 9.6 13.1
SMU South Florida -11.8 -10.4 -9.2
TCU Oklahoma St. -1.2 -0.7 -1.5
Illinois Iowa -15.6 -16.2 -16.3
Minnesota Northwestern -1.7 0.3 -1.9
Baylor Kansas St. 4.7 2.9 4.9
Nebraska Maryland 16.2 11.1 17.7
Purdue Wisconsin -25.8 -24.8 -27.9
Michigan St. Ohio St. -20.0 -20.3 -22.2
Texas A&M UTSA 33.2 25.0 30.3
Georgia UL-Lafayette 33.3 27.6 31.0
Rice UTEP 5.4 7.5 4.3
Georgia Tech Virginia 10.1 8.8 9.9
North Carolina St. Miami (Fla.) -8.5 -6.0 -8.4
LSU Florida 17.1 10.5 18.4
Boston College Connecticut 7.1 6.8 6.7
Charlotte Middle Tennessee -9.4 -5.3 -9.1
BYU Massachusetts 33.9 22.3 32.7
Georgia St. Georgia Southern -7.1 -3.1 -7.0
Appalachian St. UL-Monroe 32.1 27.9 33.0
Pittsburgh Duke 14.1 10.8 13.7
Western Michigan Buffalo 39.9 33.1 41.0
Syracuse Florida St. -17.3 -14.3 -19.4
Kansas Texas -23.5 -19.9 -25.0
Wyoming San Diego St. -12.6 -10.8 -13.9
Notre Dame Virginia Tech -0.1 -1.7 -1.0
Tennessee Missouri 20.0 18.3 19.7
Tulane Temple -19.5 -14.9 -19.2
Iowa St. Texas Tech -3.7 -3.2 -3.4
Michigan Indiana 29.7 25.8 30.3
East Carolina Navy -10.7 -7.5 -10.4
New Mexico St. Texas St. 8.4 8.8 8.5
California Stanford -14.1 -14.1 -16.0
North Texas Southern Miss. -4.7 -2.1 -4.4
Florida Atlantic Old Dominion -10.0 -8.3 -8.4
Wake Forest Clemson -22.2 -17.1 -20.7
Fresno St. Hawaii 0.5 4.5 0.5
Florida Int’l. Marshall -1.1 -0.1 -1.5
Mississippi St. Arkansas -0.7 1.9 0.1
Washington Arizona St. 28.6 22.9 29.6
Central Florida Tulsa -2.0 -1.8 -1.8
West Virginia Oklahoma -6.0 -5.1 -6.1
Vanderbilt Ole Miss -8.8 -7.7 -8.9
Rutgers Penn St. -23.8 -26.8 -25.0
Colorado St. New Mexico 1.0 0.5 1.2
UCLA USC -11.4 -8.1 -10.4
San Jose St. Air Force -9.5 -11.3 -10.1
Nevada Utah St. -0.9 -1.6 -0.2

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS vs. FCS Week 12  
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Morgan St. 41
North Carolina Citadel 28
South Carolina Western Carolina 30
Kentucky Austin Peay 41
Alabama Chattanooga 49
South Alabama Presbyterian 30
Auburn Alabama A&M 59

Bowl Projections

This week, we show 77 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  Three non-bowl eligible teams would thus be needed to fill in as alternates.  Of the three, only one team would have a 5-7 record, as the other two teams figure to be 6-6 with two FCS wins apiece.  Oddly, no at-large spots were needed other than the three alternate slots.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. Idaho
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Arkansas St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Middle Tenn. vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Memphis vs. Ohio U
Boca Raton AAC CUSA SMU vs. Old Dominion
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Miami (O) vs. Colorado St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Houston vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. Kansas St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Eastern Mich. vs. Appy St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC La. Tech vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Temple vs. Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Wake Forest vs. {Army}
Independence SEC ACC/ND Kentucky vs. {Boston Coll.}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {S. Alabama} vs. North Texas
Military ACC/ND AAC N. C. State vs. South Florida
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Washington
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. California
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Utah
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulsa vs. S. Carolina
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. Texas A&M
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 N.Carolina vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC W. Kentucky vs. Boise St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Indiana vs. Georgia
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Clemson vs. Penn St.
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Tennessee
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Outback Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Colorado
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Wash. St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. LSU
CFP Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.
           
           
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 12, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 13-17, 2016

Replayicide

A third consecutive winning week was practically in the bag thanks to a great Sunday comeback. Yes, a terrific 84.7% return on our investment was ours, as Joe Flacco guided the Baltimore Ravens on a fourth quarter comeback to defeat the Washington Redskins, allowing the PiRates to cash in on a really nice +199 parlay.

As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friends.” All scoring plays are reviewed. Breshad Perriman appeared to have both feet inbounds in real time with his heel of his second foot hitting green turf, but the instant replay told a different story, and by the distance of a few blades of grass, a big payoff turned into a 15% loss on our investment. Oh well, at least they are imaginary dollars, so we didn’t really lose anything but a little self-pride.

One good thing about doing this exercise just for fun is that you don’t become gun shy when you miss on a big payoff like this, and you don’t have to worry about trying to catch up after a loss or sustain any success; you just select the next week’s games as if the new week is in a vacuum.
We have chosen four new selections this week, three from college and one NFL. This is a strange season for the NFL, so we are lessening our amount of pro plays.

Enjoy these selections, but remember, we highly encourage you not to use them to wager real coin, currency, or plastic on them.

October 13-17, 2016

1. College Parlay @ +157
Idaho over New Mexico St.
Marshall over Florida Atlantic
Florida over Missouri
Georgia over Vanderbilt

We like the job Paul Petrino has done at Idaho and expect the Vandals to win in the Palouse this week; considering that this program has announced that they will leave FBS football to return to FCS and the Big Sky Conference in 2018, Petrino could be on the radar screen of other FBS schools should Idaho make it to 6-6 or better this year. Maybe, this year is their last-gasp effort to sneak into a bowl for the first and possibly last time since 2009 and only the third time ever. Here’s a bit of trivia for you: Idaho was once a member of what is the Pac-12 Conference today. From1922 to 1959, the Vandals were in the same league as USC, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, and Stanford. The Idaho-Washington St. rivalry remains strong since the two schools are within walking distance of each other.

Marshall is off to its weakest start in the Doc Holliday tenure, but the Herd should begin to thunder this week against FAU. The Owls lost at Charlotte last week, and Coach Charlie Partridge will be doing his cooing from another pear tree next year.

Florida and Missouri both had last Saturday off, with the Gators’ bye week coming unexpectedly. The good news for Florida was that by watching the most recent game film of the team they were supposed to play last week (LSU), they just happened to watch this week’s opponent. We think the Gators win a rather dull, low-scoring affair in the 14-10 range.

Georgia has not looked brilliant for 60 minutes in any game this year, but even playing 20 minutes brilliantly this week should be enough to win over a Vanderbilt team that is “0 for” on the road in the SEC under Coach Derek Mason and has no passing game.

2. College Parlay @ +192
Arkansas St. over South Alabama
Ohio St. over Wisconsin
Ball St. over Buffalo
Memphis over Tulane

Arkansas State might replicate what Texas A&M did in 1967. The Red Wolves began the season 0-4 and could run the table after that start. South Alabama is a team that gets up for big-time opponents and seems to not show up against opponents not considered big-time.

Wisconsin’s incredibly difficult schedule is about to come down hard in Badgerland. After losing at Michigan, we expect Ohio State to make the home team fans a bit sad as they exit Camp Randall Stadium Saturday. There is an issue of team speed in this game, and UW will eventually succumb to it.

Ball State is on the cusp of being a rather decent team in MAC football, but they are not there yet. However, this Buffalo team is at the bottom of the league, and they lost at home to Kent State last week. The Cardinals look to pick up their biggest point differential win of the season.

Memphis will have a tough time in New Orleans on Saturday, as Tulane is one of those pesky teams that opponents do not enjoy playing. First-year Green Wave coach Willie Fritz is known for his unique style of multiple option running and play-action passing plays, and his offense is eating up the clock with a true freshman quarterback guiding it, but it is the TU defense that is really getting the job done. It just goes to show that the best defense in football is a good time-consuming offense. Still, it is asking a bit too much to expect a green Green Wave squad to upset a team that thinks they can now win the West Division of the AAC.

3. College Parlay @ +172
Florida Int’l. over Charlotte
Ohio U over Eastern Michigan
BYU over Mississippi St.

Ron Turner has been in this boat before. When he coached at Illinois, Turner endured some lean seasons with just two wins, before surprising the nation with a trip to the Rose Bowl and upset of top-ranked Ohio State. Turner has slowly improved FIU from one to four to five wins in his three years in Miami, and the Panthers now could contend for a minor bowl. In order to do so, they have to beat a Charlotte team that just gained a little confidence with their first ever CUSA win last week. We expect FIU to win by at least 10-14 points.

Frank Solich has the Ohio Bobcats in the driver’s seat to win the MAC East this year, as his chief competition, Akron, has a tougher conference schedule, and the season finale between the two is in Athens. The Bobcats respect this EMU team, because this Eagles’ team is 4-2 and thinks it is going to win two more games this year. It was a tough choice, but we sided with OU in this game.

Mississippi State appears to be the 13th best team in the SEC this year, and the Bulldogs already have a home out-of-conference loss to South Alabama. Having to travel to Utah to face a BYU team that is about two touchdowns better today than they were at the start of the season means another loss for the SEC school.

4. NFL Parlay @ +220
New England over Cincinnati
Buffalo over San Francisco
Oakland over Kansas City

Do you expect Tom Brady to lose to anybody in his home debut? We’d go with the Pats to beat the NFC Pro Bowl team this week. Cincinnati could be out of the playoff race after this week, and Marvin Lewis could be in jeopardy of losing his job if the Bengals fall to third in the AFC North.

San Francisco must travel almost 3,000 to the Ontario border to face a mean Buffalo team that has turned things around since their Monday Night debacle against the Jets. Colin Kaepernick will get his first start, and we would not be surprised if subconsciously, the officials see an extra penalty here or there that costs the 49ers a crucial first down. Rex Ryan can sniff playoffs with this Bills’ team. It’s been a very long dry spell for Buffalo, even longer than the Raiders’ dry spell, and a win Sunday puts Buffalo at 4-2.

If you haven’t read our NFL preview from Tuesday, you should read what we had to write about the Oakland – Kansas City rivalry.

Link: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/nfl-ratings-and-spreads-for-week-5-october-13-17-2016/

This game promises to be one of the best between these two franchises since the old Daryle Lamonica vs. Len Dawson days. The game even shapes up to play like it was from 1968–Oakland has the wide-open high-octane offense and some big play defensive stars, while Kansas City has the better ball-control offense to go with a top-flight defense. All that will be missing is the odd characters like Ben Davidson, Buck Buchanan, Fred Williamson, and Fred Biletnikoff, who wore shoulder pads about as thick as tissue paper and used enough Stickem that he could catch a pass without using his fingers.

October 10, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 12-15, 2016

Happy Thanksgiving!

Yes, it’s the second Monday in October, and the Oktoberfest Parade was a dandy this year.  That doubleheader football classic continues as these words are typed.

The spicy, not sweet, pumpkin pie was delicious again, and the crisp cool weather with snow due by Friday creates the perfect festive environment.  Plus, there are no wild dashes to the stores tomorrow.

For those of you readers in the lower 48 not familiar with what us PiRates speak of, today is Canadian Thanksgiving.  It is actually somewhat older than the holiday celebrated in the States.

The Kitchener-Waterloo Oktoberfest Parade features floats, pretty lasses waving until their hands go numb, and all the fun and frivolity of any parade in the Lower 48.  Rather than sponsor a store to begin selling for the next big holiday, this parade concentrates on raising funds with the Onkel Hans Food Drive.

The Lions did play today, but it was the British Columbia Lions.  They fell in a heartbreaker to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 37-35.  We have friends that call the winners “Winterpeg.”  In the nightcap, Calgary is playing Toronto, and the game is currently nearing halftime with CGY in the lead.

Our hats and hearts go to our friends and patrons in Canada on your special day.  Your nation has opened its heart to our PiRate family in the past, and you are our extended family in our book.  We hope to keep a certain jewelry designer’s paws off all that amethyst in NW Ontario, for she would like nothing more than to bring it all home with her and make beautiful jewelry as she has done before.

Cinderella’s Slipper Didn’t Fit This Time

We were all prepared to recall the incredibly fantasy-like feats of the Cardiac Indiana Hoosiers of 1967, and it would have been for good reason.  When Tennessee almost pulled a 12-foot rabbit out of their hat Saturday afternoon in College Station, Texas, it might have topped the Hoosiers’ unexpected run to the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl in 1967.

Alas, the Vols ran out of Aladdins’ lamps to rub, and they were shocked back to reality in double overtime.  With Alabama coming to Knoxville this week, don’t expect any miracles.  Nick Saban’s Tide will keep the throttle at full-speed even if the Tide go up 21 points quickly.

Are We Looking At Another Great Big Ten Finale

Ohio State and Michigan are both undefeated, both in the top 5, both averaging at  least 50 points per game, and both giving up less than a dozen points per game as the season is halfway in the books.

It looks close to a sure thing that one of these two teams will make the Playoffs at the end of the season and enter said games at 13-0.  Yes, Nebraska is still unbeaten, but the Cornhuskers appear to be about 14-17 points weaker than either East Division power.  There is a chance both teams could find a way into the 4-team scramble if Clemson, Washington, and the loser of the Alabama-Texas A&M game all lose another game.

In the Days of Woody Hayes in Columbus Bo Schembechler in Ann Arbor, there were two very special games between these two teams when both were undefeated with the Rose Bowl (the only bowl available to a Big Ten team) on the line.   The first time was in 1970.

The 1969 Ohio State team looked like the best team in college football since the 1945 Army Cadets.  They destroyed all eight opponents on their schedule.  Michigan had improved week-to-week after losing big to a Missouri team that would win the Big 8 and play in the Orange Bowl.  The Wolverines entered the 1969 finale just one game behind the Buckeyes in the Big Ten race, so an unlikely upset win would put the Maize and Blue in the Rose Bowl.  Nobody outside of Michigan gave the Wolverines a chance to win the game, but a basket full of OSU turnovers led to an incredible upset.

Now, in 1970, Ohio State was ready for revenge.  The entire campus was prepared for war.  The Buckeyes had won all their games again leading up to this one, and this time Michigan had won all their games.  This time, Michigan looked like the more unbeatable team.  The Wolverines had just blown out Iowa almost like they blew out Rutgers this past weekend.  Ohio State had barely edged a Purdue team that was much weaker than the Boilermakers’ previous four editions.

As wont to be when Woody’s team faced Bo’s team, the game was a defensive struggle for 60 minutes.  Michigan couldn’t move the ball at all the entire day, while Ohio State found a lot of success running inside the tackles and then faking inside and running outside.  However, it did not produce points.  It took a blocked extra point attempt to decide this game, as Ohio State won 10-9 to earn a trip to the Rose Bowl.  In Pasadena, the Buckeyes were not prepared to face the passing game of Stanford’s Jim Plunkett, as the Indians (not yet the Cardinal) pulled off a big upset and opened the door for Nebraska to take the first of two consecutive national titles.

As the season continues, and if both teams continue to win, we will give a short history of the 1973 and 2006 games.  If the two teams are 11-0 when they play in November, it will outrank the Game of the Century of 2006, when Ohio State was #1 and Michigan was #2.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.8 124.8 131.5 129.4
2 Michigan 129.0 126.5 129.5 128.3
3 Ohio St. 126.2 125.6 127.3 126.4
4 Louisville 127.8 122.1 127.9 125.9
5 Washington 128.2 120.8 128.3 125.8
6 Clemson 127.7 120.1 126.9 124.9
7 LSU 123.8 118.6 123.0 121.8
8 Virginia Tech 120.7 119.9 121.3 120.6
9 Tennessee 121.2 118.1 120.8 120.0
10 Oklahoma 119.8 117.7 119.6 119.0
11 Miami 120.4 113.5 120.3 118.1
12 Auburn 118.2 116.3 118.4 117.6
13 Florida St. 119.3 112.4 118.5 116.7
14 Texas A&M 117.0 115.2 116.8 116.3
15 Houston 115.1 113.2 117.1 115.1
16 Ole Miss 116.8 110.6 116.3 114.6
17 Wisconsin 114.7 112.7 115.2 114.2
18 Oklahoma St. 113.8 114.8 113.6 114.1
19 Colorado 114.7 110.3 114.8 113.3
20 North Carolina 115.3 109.1 114.9 113.1
21 Pittsburgh 114.4 110.8 113.5 112.9
22 Florida 112.6 115.2 110.8 112.9
23 USC 114.8 110.6 112.4 112.6
24 Washington St. 113.0 109.8 113.1 112.0
25 Nebraska 113.2 109.6 113.2 112.0
26 Baylor 111.3 111.4 111.9 111.5
27 Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
28 UCLA 111.9 110.6 111.4 111.3
29 Iowa 112.4 109.5 111.8 111.2
30 Stanford 113.6 107.0 112.3 111.0
31 South Florida 111.5 109.1 112.3 111.0
32 Boise St. 109.9 110.8 111.6 110.8
33 Western Michigan 110.4 109.5 112.1 110.7
34 Texas 110.5 111.8 109.7 110.7
35 Arkansas 112.2 107.7 109.7 109.9
36 TCU 109.3 110.8 108.8 109.6
37 Georgia 109.5 108.7 109.0 109.1
38 Georgia Tech 109.8 105.5 108.9 108.1
39 North Carolina St. 109.1 106.4 108.7 108.1
40 Utah 110.5 105.0 108.5 108.0
41 Kansas St. 107.1 109.8 107.0 108.0
42 Mississippi St. 108.6 106.7 107.5 107.6
43 BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
44 West Virginia 107.8 106.7 107.2 107.2
45 Penn St. 106.8 108.8 105.6 107.1
46 Arizona St. 107.3 106.6 106.3 106.8
47 Michigan St. 107.3 106.5 105.4 106.4
48 Texas Tech 107.0 106.1 105.1 106.1
49 Northwestern 107.8 102.9 106.3 105.7
50 Oregon 105.7 104.1 104.7 104.8
51 Memphis 106.1 102.4 104.8 104.5
52 Toledo 104.5 103.5 105.3 104.4
53 Maryland 104.0 107.2 102.0 104.4
54 Indiana 102.8 105.9 102.5 103.7
55 Minnesota 103.6 102.1 103.2 103.0
56 Wake Forest 103.5 101.6 103.0 102.7
57 Virginia 103.5 101.2 103.0 102.6
58 Missouri 103.0 102.0 102.6 102.6
59 Arizona 103.3 100.9 101.9 102.0
60 San Diego St. 101.7 100.1 104.0 102.0
61 California 104.8 97.5 102.5 101.6
62 Temple 100.8 100.6 100.9 100.8
63 Navy 100.7 100.6 100.4 100.6
64 Air Force 99.5 100.2 99.9 99.9
65 Duke 99.5 100.2 98.4 99.4
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 97.6 99.3 99.3
67 South Carolina 99.3 98.8 98.7 99.0
68 Tulsa 97.8 100.2 98.4 98.8
69 Boston College 99.0 98.4 98.7 98.7
70 Central Michigan 97.8 99.5 98.5 98.6
71 Western Kentucky 99.3 96.0 100.2 98.5
72 Iowa St. 98.7 98.1 98.1 98.3
73 Appalachian St. 97.5 97.0 99.3 97.9
74 Syracuse 99.6 96.3 97.7 97.9
75 Kentucky 97.6 99.2 96.7 97.8
76 Cincinnati 97.5 97.8 97.6 97.7
77 Connecticut 97.4 95.3 97.2 96.7
78 Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
79 Illinois 97.0 93.7 96.0 95.6
80 Troy 93.1 97.7 95.1 95.3
81 Middle Tennessee 94.3 95.7 94.8 94.9
82 Central Florida 93.9 96.3 94.2 94.8
83 Ohio 91.2 98.7 91.7 93.9
84 Utah St. 93.0 95.5 92.7 93.7
85 Northern Illinois 92.5 93.8 93.6 93.3
86 Purdue 94.0 92.3 93.2 93.2
87 Oregon St. 95.2 90.8 93.4 93.1
88 Louisiana Tech 91.9 93.1 93.2 92.7
89 East Carolina 91.7 93.7 91.9 92.4
90 Georgia Southern 91.3 91.3 93.5 92.1
91 New Mexico 90.7 93.6 91.2 91.9
92 Southern Mississippi 91.3 92.3 91.9 91.9
93 SMU 91.0 90.6 93.1 91.6
94 Akron 88.6 94.1 90.3 91.0
95 Old Dominion 88.8 92.3 89.4 90.2
96 Rutgers 91.1 88.7 89.7 89.9
97 UNLV 88.3 91.9 88.6 89.6
98 Wyoming 88.7 88.7 89.3 88.9
99 Arkansas St. 87.7 89.5 89.3 88.8
100 Nevada 87.0 90.1 87.8 88.3
101 Marshall 86.4 89.3 87.7 87.8
102 Ball St. 86.5 88.0 87.5 87.3
103 Kansas 86.2 92.2 83.5 87.3
104 Colorado St. 86.0 88.1 86.5 86.9
105 South Alabama 84.0 91.1 85.4 86.8
106 Kent St. 86.0 87.6 86.5 86.7
107 Tulane 85.0 89.4 85.7 86.7
108 UTSA 82.4 89.4 85.3 85.7
109 Georgia St. 82.2 86.7 84.1 84.3
110 Bowling Green 84.2 84.7 83.9 84.3
111 San Jose St. 84.0 84.6 83.8 84.1
112 Miami (O) 83.0 84.4 84.5 84.0
113 Eastern Michigan 82.3 85.3 83.4 83.7
114 Hawaii 84.2 82.7 83.8 83.6
115 Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
116 Rice 80.9 87.7 80.9 83.2
117 Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.8 81.5
118 Florida International 79.6 84.6 79.7 81.3
119 UL-Lafayette 76.9 84.4 78.6 80.0
120 North Texas 78.9 81.5 79.5 80.0
121 Florida Atlantic 76.5 81.6 79.6 79.2
122 Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
123 Buffalo 75.3 83.0 76.1 78.2
124 New Mexico St. 73.4 76.6 74.3 74.8
125 Charlotte 70.9 76.7 71.3 73.0
126 UTEP 70.3 74.9 71.3 72.2
127 UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
128 Texas St. 69.6 71.0 70.6 70.4
           
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.3 110.0 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 112.1 108.4 111.5 110.7
3 Pac-12 110.3 106.2 109.1 108.5
4 Big Ten 107.9 106.6 107.2 107.2
5 Big 12 107.2 108.0 106.5 107.2
6 Independents 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
7 AAC 92.0 91.7 92.3 92.0
8 MWC 91.1 92.6 91.6 91.8
9 MAC 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
10 CUSA 84.0 87.3 85.0 85.4
11 Sun Belt 82.0 85.7 83.5 83.7
American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.5 109.1 112.3 111.0
Temple 100.8 100.6 100.9 100.8
Cincinnati 97.5 97.8 97.6 97.7
Connecticut 97.4 95.3 97.2 96.7
Central Florida 93.9 96.3 94.2 94.8
East Carolina 91.7 93.7 91.9 92.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 115.1 113.2 117.1 115.1
Memphis 106.1 102.4 104.8 104.5
Navy 100.7 100.6 100.4 100.6
Tulsa 97.8 100.2 98.4 98.8
SMU 91.0 90.6 93.1 91.6
Tulane 85.0 89.4 85.7 86.7
         
AAC Averages 92.0 91.7 92.3 92.0
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.8 122.1 127.9 125.9
Clemson 127.7 120.1 126.9 124.9
Florida St. 119.3 112.4 118.5 116.7
North Carolina St. 109.1 106.4 108.7 108.1
Wake Forest 103.5 101.6 103.0 102.7
Boston College 99.0 98.4 98.7 98.7
Syracuse 99.6 96.3 97.7 97.9
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 120.7 119.9 121.3 120.6
Miami 120.4 113.5 120.3 118.1
North Carolina 115.3 109.1 114.9 113.1
Pittsburgh 114.4 110.8 113.5 112.9
Georgia Tech 109.8 105.5 108.9 108.1
Virginia 103.5 101.2 103.0 102.6
Duke 99.5 100.2 98.4 99.4
         
ACC Averages 112.1 108.4 111.5 110.7
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 119.8 117.7 119.6 119.0
Oklahoma St. 113.8 114.8 113.6 114.1
Baylor 111.3 111.4 111.9 111.5
Texas 110.5 111.8 109.7 110.7
TCU 109.3 110.8 108.8 109.6
Kansas St. 107.1 109.8 107.0 108.0
West Virginia 107.8 106.7 107.2 107.2
Texas Tech 107.0 106.1 105.1 106.1
Iowa St. 98.7 98.1 98.1 98.3
Kansas 86.2 92.2 83.5 87.3
         
Big 12 Averages 107.2 108.0 106.5 107.2
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 129.0 126.5 129.5 128.3
Ohio St. 126.2 125.6 127.3 126.4
Penn St. 106.8 108.8 105.6 107.1
Michigan St. 107.3 106.5 105.4 106.4
Maryland 104.0 107.2 102.0 104.4
Indiana 102.8 105.9 102.5 103.7
Rutgers 91.1 88.7 89.7 89.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 114.7 112.7 115.2 114.2
Nebraska 113.2 109.6 113.2 112.0
Iowa 112.4 109.5 111.8 111.2
Northwestern 107.8 102.9 106.3 105.7
Minnesota 103.6 102.1 103.2 103.0
Illinois 97.0 93.7 96.0 95.6
Purdue 94.0 92.3 93.2 93.2
         
Big Ten Averages 107.9 106.6 107.2 107.2
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 99.3 96.0 100.2 98.5
Middle Tennessee 94.3 95.7 94.8 94.9
Old Dominion 88.8 92.3 89.4 90.2
Marshall 86.4 89.3 87.7 87.8
Florida International 79.6 84.6 79.7 81.3
Florida Atlantic 76.5 81.6 79.6 79.2
Charlotte 70.9 76.7 71.3 73.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 91.9 93.1 93.2 92.7
Southern Mississippi 91.3 92.3 91.9 91.9
UTSA 82.4 89.4 85.3 85.7
Rice 80.9 87.7 80.9 83.2
North Texas 78.9 81.5 79.5 80.0
UTEP 70.3 74.9 71.3 72.2
         
CUSA Averages 84.0 87.3 85.0 85.4
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 113.1 109.7 111.6 111.5
BYU 109.5 103.6 109.1 107.4
Army 92.8 101.2 95.8 96.6
Massachusetts 80.6 87.5 81.9 83.3
         
Independents Averages 99.0 100.5 99.6 99.7
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.2 98.7 91.7 93.9
Akron 88.6 94.1 90.3 91.0
Kent St. 86.0 87.6 86.5 86.7
Bowling Green 84.2 84.7 83.9 84.3
Miami (O) 83.0 84.4 84.5 84.0
Buffalo 75.3 83.0 76.1 78.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 110.4 109.5 112.1 110.7
Toledo 104.5 103.5 105.3 104.4
Central Michigan 97.8 99.5 98.5 98.6
Northern Illinois 92.5 93.8 93.6 93.3
Ball St. 86.5 88.0 87.5 87.3
Eastern Michigan 82.3 85.3 83.4 83.7
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 109.9 110.8 111.6 110.8
Air Force 99.5 100.2 99.9 99.9
Utah St. 93.0 95.5 92.7 93.7
New Mexico 90.7 93.6 91.2 91.9
Wyoming 88.7 88.7 89.3 88.9
Colorado St. 86.0 88.1 86.5 86.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 101.7 100.1 104.0 102.0
UNLV 88.3 91.9 88.6 89.6
Nevada 87.0 90.1 87.8 88.3
San Jose St. 84.0 84.6 83.8 84.1
Hawaii 84.2 82.7 83.8 83.6
Fresno St. 80.2 84.5 79.8 81.5
         
MWC Averages 91.1 92.6 91.6 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 128.2 120.8 128.3 125.8
Washington St. 113.0 109.8 113.1 112.0
Stanford 113.6 107.0 112.3 111.0
Oregon 105.7 104.1 104.7 104.8
California 104.8 97.5 102.5 101.6
Oregon St. 95.2 90.8 93.4 93.1
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colorado 114.7 110.3 114.8 113.3
USC 114.8 110.6 112.4 112.6
UCLA 111.9 110.6 111.4 111.3
Utah 110.5 105.0 108.5 108.0
Arizona St. 107.3 106.6 106.3 106.8
Arizona 103.3 100.9 101.9 102.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.3 106.2 109.1 108.5
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 121.2 118.1 120.8 120.0
Florida 112.6 115.2 110.8 112.9
Georgia 109.5 108.7 109.0 109.1
Missouri 103.0 102.0 102.6 102.6
Vanderbilt 100.8 97.6 99.3 99.3
South Carolina 99.3 98.8 98.7 99.0
Kentucky 97.6 99.2 96.7 97.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.8 124.8 131.5 129.4
LSU 123.8 118.6 123.0 121.8
Auburn 118.2 116.3 118.4 117.6
Texas A&M 117.0 115.2 116.8 116.3
Ole Miss 116.8 110.6 116.3 114.6
Arkansas 112.2 107.7 109.7 109.9
Mississippi St. 108.6 106.7 107.5 107.6
         
SEC Averages 112.3 110.0 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 97.5 97.0 99.3 97.9
Troy 93.1 97.7 95.1 95.3
Georgia Southern 91.3 91.3 93.5 92.1
Arkansas St. 87.7 89.5 89.3 88.8
South Alabama 84.0 91.1 85.4 86.8
Georgia St. 82.2 86.7 84.1 84.3
UL-Lafayette 76.9 84.4 78.6 80.0
Idaho 76.6 82.4 77.9 79.0
New Mexico St. 73.4 76.6 74.3 74.8
UL-Monroe 69.6 74.5 70.1 71.4
Texas St. 69.6 71.0 70.6 70.4
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.0 85.7 83.5 83.7
PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Washington
6 Texas A&M
7 Louisville
8 Tennessee
9 Nebraska
10 Wisconsin
11 Florida St.
12 Houston
13 Ole Miss
14 Western Michigan
15 Oklahoma
16 Baylor
17 Boise St.
18 Miami (Fla)
19 Virginia Tech
20 LSU
21 West Virginia
22 Florida
23 Stanford
24 South Florida
25 Auburn
26 Arkansas
27 Utah
28 Georgia
29 USC
30 Washington St.
31 Arizona St.
32 Colorado
33 North Carolina
34 Navy
35 North Carolina St.
36 Memphis
37 TCU
38 UCLA
39 Penn St.
40 Pittsburgh
41 Air Force
42 Kansas St.
43 Toledo
44 Wake Forest
45 Oklahoma St.
46 Iowa
47 BYU
48 Troy
49 Maryland
50 Georgia Tech
51 Indiana
52 San Diego St.
53 California
54 Texas Tech
55 Tulsa
56 Appalachian St.
57 Northwestern
58 Georgia Southern
59 Minnesota
60 Central Michigan
61 Mississippi St.
62 Central Florida
63 Oregon
64 Kentucky
65 Akron
66 Michigan St.
67 Texas
68 Louisiana Tech
69 Wyoming
70 Western Kentucky
71 Arizona
72 South Carolina
73 Temple
74 Notre Dame
75 Old Dominion
76 Southern Miss.
77 Boston College
78 Duke
79 Ohio
80 South Alabama
81 Connecticut
82 Middle Tennessee
83 Missouri
84 Army
85 Virginia
86 Tulane
87 East Carolina
88 Vanderbilt
89 Cincinnati
90 Oregon St.
91 Colorado St.
92 Purdue
93 Eastern Michigan
94 Rutgers
95 Utah St.
96 Illinois
97 Syracuse
98 Idaho
99 Iowa St.
100 Hawaii
101 UL-Lafayette
102 Northern Illinois
103 UTSA
104 Ball St.
105 Arkansas St.
106 Nevada
107 Georgia St.
108 SMU
109 Texas St.
110 Marshall
111 New Mexico
112 North Texas
113 UNLV
114 New Mexico St.
115 Kent St.
116 Bowling Green
117 Kansas
118 UL-Monroe
119 Massachusetts
120 Florida Int’l.
121 Buffalo
122 Charlotte
123 San Jose St.
124 Fresno St.
125 Florida Atlantic
126 UTEP
127 Miami (O)
128 Rice

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 12-15
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wednesday, October 12      
UL-Lafayette Appalachian St. -18.1 -8.1 -18.2
         
Thursday, October 13      
East Carolina Navy -6.0 -3.9 -5.5
         
         
Friday, October 14      
Louisville Duke 31.3 24.9 32.5
Tulane Memphis -18.6 -10.5 -16.6
Fresno St. San Diego St. -18.5 -12.6 -21.2
BYU Mississippi St. 3.9 -0.1 4.6
         
Saturday, October 15      
Georgia Vanderbilt 11.7 14.1 12.7
Clemson North Carolina St. 21.6 16.7 21.2
Purdue Iowa -15.9 -14.7 -16.1
Oklahoma Kansas St. 15.7 10.9 15.6
Texas Tech West Virginia 2.2 2.4 0.9
Rutgers Illinois -3.9 -3.0 -4.3
Maryland Minnesota 3.4 8.1 1.8
Georgia Tech Georgia Southern 20.5 16.2 17.4
Virginia Pittsburgh -7.9 -6.6 -7.5
Ohio U Eastern Michigan 11.9 16.4 10.7
Miami (O) Kent St. -1.0 -1.2 -0.1
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky -3.0 1.7 -3.4
Akron Western Michigan -18.8 -12.4 -18.8
Florida St. Wake Forest 18.8 13.8 18.5
Buffalo Ball St. -9.2 -3.0 -9.4
Toledo Bowling Green 22.3 20.8 23.4
Northern Illinois Central Michigan -2.3 -2.7 -1.9
Massachusetts Louisiana Tech -8.8 -3.1 -8.8
Baylor Kansas 28.1 22.2 31.4
Tennessee Alabama -7.6 -3.7 -7.7
Arizona USC -8.5 -6.7 -7.5
Air Force (*) New Mexico 8.8 6.6 8.7
Michigan St. Northwestern 2.5 6.6 2.1
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina 8.1 7.4 8.4
Troy Georgia St. 13.9 14.0 14.0
Indiana Nebraska -7.9 -0.7 -7.7
Syracuse Virginia Tech -18.1 -20.6 -20.6
Oregon St. Utah -12.3 -11.2 -12.1
Florida Missouri 12.6 16.2 11.2
Idaho New Mexico St. 6.2 8.8 6.6
Charlotte Florida Int’l -6.2 -5.4 -5.9
Marshall Florida Atlantic 12.9 10.7 11.1
Rice UTSA 1.0 0.8 -1.9
Arkansas Ole Miss -1.6 0.1 -3.6
UL-Monroe Texas St. 2.0 5.5 1.5
Arkansas St. South Alabama 6.7 1.4 6.9
South Florida Connecticut 17.1 16.8 18.1
Houston Tulsa 20.3 16.0 21.7
Texas Iowa St. 14.8 16.0 14.6
LSU Southern Miss. 34.5 28.3 33.1
Notre Dame Stanford 2.5 5.7 2.3
Central Florida Temple -3.9 -1.3 -3.7
Colorado Arizona St. 10.4 6.7 11.5
Wisconsin Ohio St. -8.5 -9.9 -9.1
Boise St. Colorado St. 26.9 25.7 28.1
Washington St. UCLA 4.1 2.2 4.7
San Jose St. Nevada -0.5 -3 -1.5
Hawaii UNLV -0.1 -5.2 -0.8
         
(*) Game to be played in Dallas
FBS vs. FCS Week 7  
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 31

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA Colorado St. vs. Louisiana Tech
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Washington St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Connecticut vs. Appalachian St.
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Ga. Southern
Miami Beach AAC MAC Central Florida vs. Toledo
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU Air Force vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ball St. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA South Florida vs. Western Mich.
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. Texas
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Arkansas St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. Hawaii
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Memphis vs. Pittsburgh
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten [Akron] vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND [Southern Miss.] vs. Wake Forest
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Minnesota vs. North Texas
Military ACC/ND AAC Georgia Tech vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech vs. California
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten N.Carolina St. vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Virginia Tech vs. TCU
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. USC
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Arkansas
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulsa vs. [South Alabama]
Belk ACC/ND SEC North Carolina vs. Auburn
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. Arizona St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. LSU
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Florida St. vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC UTSA vs. Idaho
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Indiana vs. [Army]
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Tennessee
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Georgia
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Miami (Fla.) vs. Florida
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Ole Miss
Cotton At-Large At-Large Boise St. vs. Baylor
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Nat’l Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Ohio St.
           
[Team] At-Large Selection

March 23, 2016

NCAA Sweet 16 Preview

PiRate Ratings For Thursday and Friday

Higher Seed Lower Seed Red White Blue
Villanova Miami 3 3 2
Oklahoma Texas A&M 2 2 -3
Kansas Maryland 7 3 11
Oregon Duke 1 -1 5
Virginia Iowa St. 2 3 3
Notre Dame Wisconsin 1 1 -2
Syracuse Gonzaga -3 -2 -2
North Carolina Indiana 5 4 9

To those of you that read our annual bracket-picking story last week, you have our sincere apologies.  Never before has our top-rated team lost in its first game in the NCAA Tournament, but Middle Tennessee shocked us for the second time in NCAA Tournament history.  The first time, our founder had two tickets to the 1982 Mideast Regional, and once Kentucky disposed of little Middle Tennessee, he had a solid offer for $850 for each ticket two days later when Kentucky faced Louisville for the first time in a quarter century.  Those tickets became worthless when Middle upset Kentucky.

So, what’s left to say after Michigan State was sent packing?  There isn’t anything to say other than let’s get over it and proceed with our current update.

Because the entire world’s bracket has been busted after the first weekend, most places allow the fan to start anew with the Sweet 16 bracket.  If you still have faith in our system, and we do, since most of the 16 surviving teams fit the criteria, we will show you how we see it from here.

First, let us point out that no surprise teams remain in the tournament.  All 16 teams are consistent top programs, and only Gonzaga fails to come from a Power Conference.  Gonzaga today is what UNLV was 25 years ago and Davidson was 50 years ago.  The Bulldogs should eventually make it to the Final Four.

 

Here are the PiRate Criteria Stats for the remaining 16 teams.

Team PPG Def Marg. FGM RbM TOM R+T WLRd SOS OPos  DPos Pos/G
Villanova 77.5 63.6 13.9 7.3 1.9 2.7 10.0 16-4 58.54 2450 2440 67.9
Miami 75.4 66.7 8.7 5.2 2.4 0.8 9.3 12-6 58.22 2257 2268 66.5
Oklahoma 80.6 70.7 9.9 5.3 2.2 -0.1 6.8 13-6 58.74 2448 2451 72.0
Texas A&M 76.8 66.1 10.7 4.8 4.5 2.3 15.5 11-7 55.70 2506 2500 69.5
Kansas 82.0 67.9 14.1 10.0 5.3 0.7 14.2 15-4 60.22 2548 2550 70.8
Maryland 76.1 66.3 9.7 8.3 3.1 -1.7 7.3 11-7 56.77 2367 2350 67.4
Oregon 78.9 68.5 10.4 4.6 3.4 2.8 14.7 12-6 60.01 2514 2513 69.8
Duke 79.7 70.2 9.5 1.9 -0.3 2.4 6.5 10-7 58.97 2341 2346 67.0
Virginia 70.9 59.5 11.3 7.2 3.8 2.4 13.5 13-7 60.05 2151 2146 61.4
Iowa St. 82.1 74.7 7.4 6.8 -0.2 0.9 4.2 9-9 58.96 2451 2468 72.3
Notre Dame 75.6 70.5 5.1 4.8 2.5 -0.5 7.8 9-9 57.25 2218 2228 65.4
Wisconsin 68.1 63.9 4.3 -0.1 3.0 1.1 10.8 9-7 58.14 2187 2198 64.5
Syracuse 70.4 64.8 5.5 2.2 -0.7 1.2 3.4 8-9 56.21 2233 2236 65.7
Gonzaga 79.4 65.6 13.8 8.9 7.5 -1.0 16.9 17-3 52.35 2392 2404 68.5
North Carolina 81.8 69.3 12.5 6.8 8.3 2.2 22.4 15-5 57.74 2558 2531 70.7
Indiana 82.5 69.0 13.5 6.3 6.9 -0.4 16.8 10-7 53.79 2351 2354 69.2

Here are the 4-Factors Numbers for the remaining 16 teams

Team EFG DEFG OR% DOR% TO% DTU% FT* DFT*
Villanova 55.1 46.3 28.4 28.7 16.4 20.4 21.9 17.0
Miami 54.0 47.7 30.2 29.2 16.4 17.5 25.2 17.7
Oklahoma 54.7 46.7 30.6 30.1 17.9 17.7 20.6 16.2
Texas A&M 51.6 47.1 34.9 29.2 17.4 20.8 22.0 17.9
Kansas 56.7 45.0 32.7 28.3 17.7 18.7 22.6 21.9
Maryland 55.7 46.2 29.8 29.7 19.0 16.6 23.6 16.8
Oregon 52.6 48.2 34.5 30.6 16.4 20.3 24.6 18.2
Duke 53.8 49.1 33.8 34.8 14.0 17.5 25.8 15.8
Virginia 54.8 48.3 30.2 25.4 15.1 19.1 20.8 18.8
Iowa St. 57.1 49.5 26.7 30.2 15.7 16.9 15.7 15.0
Notre Dame 54.1 49.2 33.0 31.5 15.3 14.5 21.4 17.2
Wisconsin 48.6 48.2 33.0 27.6 16.9 18.5 23.2 19.6
Syracuse 50.7 46.8 33.3 35.0 18.5 20.3 21.0 16.7
Gonzaga 55.4 44.7 32.3 25.6 16.8 15.2 22.3 17.2
North Carolina 52.0 47.2 39.9 29.9 15.4 18.6 20.8 17.9
Indiana 58.9 49.4 37.1 28.8 19.7 19.1 20.5 16.7

Sweet 16 Schedule

Thursday, March 23, 2016, Sweet 16 Games
Time (EDT) Network Seed Team Seed Team
7:10 PM CBS 2 Villanova 3 Miami
7:37 PM TBS 2 Oklahoma 3 Texas A&M
9:40 PM CBS 1 Kansas 5 Maryland
10:07 PM TBS 1 Oregon 4 Duke
Friday, March 24, 2016, Sweet 16 Games
Time (EDT) Network Seed Team Seed Team
7:10 PM CBS 1 Virginia 4 Iowa St.
7:27 PM TBS 6 Notre Dame 7 Wisconsin
9:40 PM CBS 10 Syracuse 11 Gonzaga
9:57 PM TBS 1 North Carolina 5 Indiana

 

Here is our updated bracket for the remainder of the tournament.  This uses our PiRate Criteria and is not the same thing as the PiRate Red-White-Blue Ratings above.

Sweet 16

Villanova over Miami

Texas A&M over Oklahoma

Kansas over Maryland

Oregon over Duke

Virginia over Iowa St.

Wisconsin over Notre Dame

Gonzaga over Syracuse

North Carolina over Indiana

 

Elite 8

Texas A&M over Villanova

Kansas over Oregon

Virginia over Wisconsin

North Carolina over Gonzaga

 

Semifinals

Kansas over Texas A&M

North Carolina over Virginia

 

Championship

Kansas over North Carolina

March 19, 2016

NCAA 3rd Round Picks–Sunday, March 20, 2016

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:04 pm
Higher Seed Lower Seed Red White Blue
Villanova Iowa 5 4 8
Notre Dame Stephen F. Austin -1 4 -3
Oklahoma VCU 6 4 -1
Syracuse Middle Tennessee 6 10 5
Maryland Hawaii 3 6 7
Texas A&M Northern Iowa 7 9 10
Xavier Wisconsin 6 4 8
Oregon St. Joseph’s 5 4 8

 

Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Higher Seed Lower Seed
12:10 PM CBS Villanova Iowa
2:40 PM CBS Notre Dame Stephen F. Austin
5:10 PM CBS Oklahoma VCU
6:10 PM TNT Syracuse Middle Tennessee
6:45 PM TBS Maryland Hawaii
7:45 PM TruTV Texas A&M Northern Iowa
8:40 PM TNT Xavier Wisconsin
9:40 PM TBS Oregon St. Joseph’s

 

 

February 15, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—February 15, 2016

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:13 pm

The first of the conference tournament play gets underway two weeks from tomorrow (March 1). Needless to say all remaining games among contenders for at-large bids and for seeding in one-bid leagues have become vital. One wrong loss or one big win might alter the course of a half-dozen or more games.

The “Bubble” remains very slippery as of today, and it also remains rather weak. When you have teams two games below .500 in their league and just a tad above .500 overall still in contention for a possible at-large bid, you know it is either a weak year or a year with extremely competitive races.

We see a lot of parity this year, but we also believe it is a rather weak basketball season. Of course, when 20 players are in the NBA who could still be in college, it tends to weaken the college game.
Consider that Kentucky could still have Willie Cauley-Stein, Archie Goodwin, Julius Randle, James Young, and Karl Anthony-Towns on its roster.

The number of one-bid leagues remained roughly the same this week. A couple of teams expected to receive at-large bids from mid and low-major conferences remained the same, but the names have changed a little. Saint Mary’s went from an almost assured at-large team to a team that must win the West Coast Conference Tournament, following a Thursday night home loss to Pepperdine.

With road games against Gonzaga and San Francisco the next two Saturdays, the Gaels will either get back on the bubble with impressive wins or falter and guarantee a must-win in the WCC Tournament.

Wichita State has now lost two of three games, including their first at home after 43 consecutive wins at the Roundhouse. The Shockers are still on the good side of the Bubble, but a couple more losses and an early Arch Madness exit in St. Louis could make for a precipitous hold onto an at-large invitation. A weather makeup game against New Mexico State tonight will be an interesting contest, which you can tune in online at ESPN3 at 8 PM Eastern.

At one time, Valparaiso had a shot at earning an at-large spot in the Big Dance if they lost in the Horizon League Finals, but a second loss to Wright State and a killer closing schedule means the Crusaders may have a tough time hanging on to the number one seed, as they hold a slim lead over Wright State and Oakland.

Three teams moved higher up on the Bubble since our last report. Gonzaga had won six straight games until falling at SMU Saturday night, but the Bulldogs appear to be on the safe side of the Bubble for now. If the Zags beat Saint Mary’s Saturday night, they should be safe with just one WCC Tournament win.

San Diego State continues to lead the Mountain West. The Aztecs are three games up on New Mexico, and a 4-1 finish with a visit to the MWC semifinals should allow SDSU to get into the field of 68 as an at-large.

Finally, there is Monmouth. Usually, teams in low-major conferences rarely sniff at-large consideration, but the Hawks are not your typical MAAC team. With non-conference wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, USC, and Georgetown, and having won 12 of their last 13 games, Monmouth may be a power conference team’s worst nightmare.

Let’s take a brief look at the One-Bid Leagues this week. These bids will go to the conference tournament champions. Rather than repeat much of the same stuff from last week, let’s concentrate on the actual upcoming tournaments.

All Standings from the official NCAA website.
All Championship Game times are Eastern

One-Bid Leagues
America East
Site–Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
U Mass-Lowell is not eligible for the tournament, leaving eight teams to play a true 8-team bracket
Quarterfinals–March 2: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinals–March 7
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 11:00 AM

Current Standings

America East CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Stony Brook 13 0 22 4
Albany 10 3 21 7
New Hampshire 8 4 15 10
Vermont 7 5 15 12
Massachusetts Lowell 7 6 11 15
Maine 4 9 8 18
Binghamton 3 9 6 19
Hartford 2 10 7 20
UMBC 2 10 6 21

Atlantic Sun
Site–Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
Stetson is ineligible for the automatic NCAA bid, but the Hatters will be allowed to participate in the conference tournament; if Stetson wins the tournament, then the regular season champion will get the automatic bid.
Quarterfinals–March 1: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinals–March 3
Championship–March 6: ESPN2 @ 12:30 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic Sun CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
North Florida 7 4 18 10
N.J.I.T. 7 4 16 11
Jacksonville 7 4 15 13
Florida Gulf Coast 6 5 15 12
Lipscomb 6 5 10 18
Kennesaw State 5 6 9 18
Stetson 3 8 9 18
USC Upstate 3 8 9 19

Big Sky
Site: Reno
All 12 teams will be eligible
Opening Round–March 8: 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinals–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinals–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 8:45 PM

Current Standings

Big Sky CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Montana 11 2 16 8
Weber State 10 2 18 7
Eastern Washington 9 4 15 10
Idaho State 8 4 13 11
Idaho 8 5 16 10
North Dakota 7 6 12 12
Montana State 7 6 12 13
Northern Colorado 5 8 8 17
Portland State 4 8 8 15
Sacramento State 3 9 10 13
Southern Utah 2 11 4 19
Northern Arizona 2 11 4 20

Big South
Site: Campbell will host the conference tournament in Buies Creek, NC, with all 11 teams participating.
Opening Round–March 3: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinals–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5
Semifinals–March 5
Championship–March 6: ESPN2 @ 2:30 PM

Current Standings

Big South CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Winthrop 10 4 18 7
UNC Asheville 10 4 17 9
Coastal Carolina 10 5 16 9
High Point 9 5 16 9
Liberty 9 5 12 15
Gardner-Webb 8 7 13 14
Radford 7 7 14 12
Charleston Southern 5 10 9 17
Longwood 4 10 8 19
Campbell 4 11 10 15
Presbyterian 3 11 8 17

Big West
Site: Anaheim
The number nine team will be disqualified from the tournament, with the other eight playing at the Honda Center.
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 11:30 PM

Current Standings

Big West CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Hawaii 9 1 20 3
UC Irvine 8 2 19 7
Long Beach State 8 3 14 12
UC Santa Barbara 5 5 11 12
UC Davis 5 6 10 14
UC Riverside 4 7 13 14
Cal State Northridge 4 7 9 16
Cal Poly 3 8 9 15
Cal State Fullerton 2 9 9 15

Colonial Athletic
Site: Baltimore
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 4: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: NBC Sports Network @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Colonial Athletic CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
North Carolina-Wilmington 12 2 20 5
Hofstra 10 4 18 8
James Madison 9 5 19 8
William & Mary 9 5 17 8
Towson 9 5 18 9
Charleston 8 6 16 9
Northeastern 6 8 14 13
Elon 5 9 14 13
Delaware 1 13 6 19
Drexel 1 13 3 22

Conference USA
Site: Birmingham
Southern Miss. is ineligible. The remaining 13 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 8: 12 vs. 13
Second Round–March 9: 5 vs. 12/13, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12/13
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: Fox Sports 1 @ 2:30 PM

Current Standings

Conference USA CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
UAB 11 2 21 5
Middle Tennessee 10 3 18 7
Marshall 9 3 13 12
Louisiana Tech 8 4 19 6
Old Dominion 7 5 14 11
UTEP 7 6 15 11
Charlotte 6 6 10 15
Florida International 6 7 12 14
Florida Atlantic 5 8 7 19
Western Kentucky 4 8 12 13
North Texas 4 8 9 16
Rice 4 8 9 16
Southern Miss 4 8 7 16
UTSA 2 11 4 22

Horizon
Site: Detroit (Motor City Madness)
Northern Kentucky is ineligible for NCAA or NIT play, but they will participate in the Horizon Tournament
Opening Round–March 5: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 6: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Horizon CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Valparaiso 11 2 21 5
Oakland 10 4 18 9
Wright State 10 4 16 11
Milwaukee 7 6 16 10
Green Bay 7 6 15 11
Detroit 7 7 13 12
Northern Kentucky 5 9 9 16
Youngstown State 4 9 9 17
Cleveland State 3 10 8 18
Illinois-Chicago 3 10 5 19

Ivy
The Ivy League does not conduct a conference tournament, even though they claim that their conference tournament is a 14-game round robin. However, all ties for first place result in a playoff for the championship, regardless of whether one team swept another team. There can be multiple team playoffs, and there is a slight chance that three teams could finish 12-2 or 11-3 this year.
There is a strong indication that the Ivy League will implement a conference tournament in the near future, possibly as early as next season.
If there is a playoff between two teams, it will be held on Saturday, March 12. If there is a three-way tie for first, two teams will play on Thursday, March 10, with the winner playing the third team on March 12.

Current Standings

Ivy League CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Yale 8 0 17 5
Princeton 6 1 16 5
Columbia 6 2 17 8
Pennsylvania 3 4 9 12
Harvard 2 6 10 14
Cornell 2 6 9 13
Dartmouth 2 6 8 14
Brown 2 6 7 15

Mid-American
Site: Opening round games will be played on campus sites on March 7. Final three rounds will be played in Cleveland.
Opening Round–March 7: 12 @ 5, 11 @ 6, 10 @ 7, 9 @ 8
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 7:30 PM

Current Standings

Mid-American CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST W L W L
Akron 9 3 20 5
Ohio 7 5 16 8
Kent State 7 5 16 9
Buffalo 7 5 14 11
Bowling Green 4 8 13 12
Miami (OH) 3 9 9 16
WEST W L W L
Ball State 7 5 16 9
Toledo 7 5 16 9
Northern Illinois 6 6 17 8
Central Michigan 6 6 13 12
Eastern Michigan 5 7 13 12
Western Michigan 4 8 10 15

Mideastern Athletic
Site: Norfolk State will host this tournament in Norfolk.
Florida A&M is ineligible. The remaining 12 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 7: 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11 & March 8: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 9: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10 & March 10: 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Mid-Eastern CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Hampton 9 2 14 9
Norfolk State 9 2 13 13
South Carolina State 9 3 14 12
Bethune-Cookman 6 5 9 16
Savannah State 6 6 10 13
Maryland-Eastern Shore 5 6 8 18
North Carolina A&T 5 6 8 18
Howard 4 6 10 15
North Carolina Central 4 6 9 15
Coppin State 4 7 6 18
Florida A&M 3 7 7 16
Morgan State 3 7 5 18
Delaware State 3 7 5 20

Northeast
Site: Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
9th and 10th place teams will be disqualified, while the top 8 teams will participate in the tournament.
Quarterfinal–March 2: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinal–March 5
Championship–March 8: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Northeast CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Wagner 9 5 16 9
Fairleigh Dickinson 9 5 13 12
St. Francis (PA) 9 5 13 12
Mount St. Mary’s 9 5 12 15
Sacred Heart 8 6 9 16
St. Francis (BKN) 7 6 11 15
LIU Brooklyn 6 7 12 12
Robert Morris 6 8 8 19
Bryant University 4 10 7 20
Central Connecticut State 2 12 3 22

Ohio Valley
Site: Tennessee State & Belmont are the home teams in Nashville
The top 8 of the 12 teams will qualify for the tournament. The top 2 seeds get byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 2: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 3: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 4: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 5: ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Ohio Valley CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST W L W L
Tennessee Tech 10 3 18 8
Belmont 10 3 18 9
Tennessee State 9 3 18 7
Morehead State 8 5 14 11
Eastern Kentucky 5 8 14 14
Jacksonville State 4 9 8 20
WEST W L W L
Murray State 8 5 14 12
Tennessee-Martin 7 5 15 12
Eastern Illinois 7 6 11 15
Austin Peay 5 8 12 16
SIU-Edwardsville 2 11 5 20
Southeast Missouri State 2 11 5 21

Patriot
Site: Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 1: 9 @ 8, 10 @ 7
Quarterfinal–March 3: 8/9 @ 1, 7/10 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 9: CBS Sports Network @ 7:30 PM

Current Standings

Patriot League CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Bucknell 10 4 13 12
Navy 9 5 18 9
Boston University 9 5 16 11
Lehigh 8 5 10 14
Colgate 8 6 12 13
Loyola (MD) 7 7 8 17
Army 6 8 15 11
Holy Cross 5 8 10 14
American University 5 9 7 18
Lafayette 2 12 5 20

Southern
Site: Asheville, NC
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 4: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: ESPN2 @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Southern CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Chattanooga 12 2 23 4
Furman 11 4 17 11
Wofford 10 4 14 13
East Tennessee State 9 4 16 10
Mercer 8 6 18 9
Western Carolina 6 7 11 15
UNC Greensboro 5 8 9 17
Citadel 3 11 10 17
Samford 3 12 12 16
Virginia Military 2 11 7 17

Southland
Site: Katy, TX (About 30 miles west of Downtown Houston) (Houston Baptist is quasi-home team)
Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, and Incarnate World are not eligible.
The top 8 of the 10 remaining teams will participate. The top 2 seeds receive byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 9: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 10: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 11: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 9:30 PM

Current Standings

Southland CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Stephen F. Austin 11 0 18 5
Texas A&M-CC 9 3 18 6
Incarnate Word 8 3 13 9
Houston Baptist 8 4 14 11
Sam Houston State 8 4 13 12
Abilene Christian 6 5 11 13
New Orleans 4 7 8 14
Southeastern Louisiana 4 7 6 18
Central Arkansas 4 7 5 16
Northwestern State 4 8 7 15
McNeese State 4 8 6 16
Nicholls State 3 9 7 19
Lamar 2 10 10 14

Southwestern Athletic
Site: Houston (Texas Southern will be the host team)
Alcorn State is ineligible for the NCAA & NIT, but the Braves will be allowed to participate in this tournament.
Opening Round–March 8: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 9: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10 & March 10: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 6:30 PM

Current Standings

Southwestern Athletic CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Texas Southern 10 1 11 12
Southern University 9 3 17 8
Alcorn State 9 3 11 12
Jackson State 8 4 13 12
Mississippi Valley State 5 7 5 21
Alabama A&M 4 8 8 13
Alabama State 4 8 9 15
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4 8 6 20
Prairie View A&M 3 8 3 20
Grambling State 3 9 6 18

Summit
Site: Sioux Falls, SD
The number 9 team does not qualify. The remaining 8 teams participate.
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7 & March 6: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN2 @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Summit League CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
South Dakota State 9 3 20 6
IPFW 9 3 20 7
Nebraska-Omaha 9 4 17 10
IUPUI 7 5 11 16
North Dakota State 6 6 16 10
Denver 5 8 13 13
Oral Roberts 5 8 13 14
South Dakota 4 9 12 15
Western Illinois 2 10 9 14

Sun Belt
Site: New Orleans
The 9th, 10th, and 11th place teams do not qualify. The remaining 8 teams participate with the top 2 seeds receiving byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 10: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 11: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 12: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 13: ESPN2 @ 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Sun Belt CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Arkansas-Little Rock 12 2 22 3
Louisiana-Lafayette 10 4 14 9
Texas-Arlington 8 5 17 7
Louisiana-Monroe 8 5 13 12
Arkansas State 7 6 11 14
Georgia Southern 7 7 11 13
Georgia State 6 8 13 10
South Alabama 6 8 11 14
Texas State 4 9 10 12
Appalachian State 4 10 6 19
Troy 3 11 8 17

Western Athletic
Site: Las Vegas
Grand Canyon is ineligible. The remaining 7 teams will participate.
Quarterfinal–March 10: 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semfinal–March 11: 1 vs. 4/5, 2/7 vs. 3/6
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 11:00 PM

Current Standings

Western Athletic CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
New Mexico State 9 1 18 8
Grand Canyon 8 2 22 4
Cal State Bakersfield 8 2 18 7
Seattle 6 4 12 12
Utah Valley 4 6 10 15
UMKC 3 7 10 15
Texas Rio Grande Valley 2 8 6 19
Chicago State 0 10 4 23

Possible Two-Bid Leagues
These are the conferences where if the overwhelming favorite wins the conference tournament, there will only be one bid awarded to these leagues, but if the heavy favorite loses in the championship round or possibly semifinal round, there could be two bids awarded to these leagues, bursting the bubble of a probably undeserving at-large team from a power conference.

Metro Atlantic
Site: Siena will host the MAAC Tournament in Albany
Opening Round–March 3: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, & March 5: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: ESPN @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Metro Atlantic Athletic CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Monmouth 13 2 21 5
Iona 11 4 14 10
Siena 11 5 18 9
St. Peter’s 9 6 11 13
Manhattan 8 6 11 12
Fairfield 8 7 14 11
Rider 7 9 11 16
Canisius 6 10 11 16
Quinnipiac 5 10 8 16
Niagara 4 12 6 21
Marist 2 13 5 19

Monmouth has a shot at receiving an at-large bid if they do not win the MAAC Tournament. Siena would be a tough out in a possible semifinal or championship game match, but the Hawks swept the Saints, including a 6-point win in Albany. At 28-6, Monmouth would have to be a serious candidate for an at-large bid, but we won’t discard the fact that politics play some part in the Selection Committee’s decision-making, so a borderline team from a power conference could take this spot away from a deserving Monmouth team should the Hawks hit a bump in the road in Albany.

Missouri Valley
Site: St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All 10 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 3: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 5
Championship–March 6: CBS @ 2:00 PM

Current Standings

Missouri Valley CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Wichita State 12 2 18 7
Illinois State 10 4 16 11
Southern Illinois 9 5 20 7
Evansville 9 5 20 7
Northern Iowa 8 6 16 11
Indiana State 7 7 13 13
Missouri State 7 7 11 15
Loyola (IL) 5 9 12 14
Bradley 2 12 4 23
Drake 1 13 6 20

Mountain West
Site: Las Vegas (UNLV Hosts)
All 11 teams participate.
Opening Round–March 9: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: CBS @ 6:00 PM

Current Standings

Mountain West CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
San Diego State 12 1 19 7
New Mexico 8 4 15 10
Boise State 8 5 17 9
Fresno State 7 5 16 9
Nevada 7 5 15 9
Colorado State 6 6 14 11
UNLV 6 7 15 11
Wyoming 5 8 12 14
Utah State 4 8 12 11
Air Force 3 10 12 14
San Jose State 3 10 8 17

San Diego State has one difficult game left on its regular conference schedule, a game at New Mexico, where the Lobos are tough to beat. If the Aztecs win that game and win out the regular season, their record will then be 24-7 with wins over California and two over New Mexico, plus losses to Utah, West Virginia, and Kansas. This looks like a rather thin resume, but the Aztecs currently hold onto a #46 RPI, and if they win out, that ranking will move up a little. SDSU would then have to make it to the championship round and lose before they would be a serious at-large candidate at 26-8.

West Coast
Site: Las Vegas
Pacific is ineligible. The remaining 9 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 4: 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

West Coast CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Gonzaga 12 2 20 6
Saint Mary’s 11 3 20 4
BYU 10 4 19 8
Pepperdine 9 6 16 10
San Francisco 7 7 13 11
Portland 5 9 11 16
Santa Clara 5 9 9 17
Pacific 5 9 7 17
Loyola Marymount 4 11 11 15
San Diego 3 11 8 17

What’s an NCAA Tournament without Gonzaga? The Bulldogs are to the 21st Century Big Dance what Marquette was to the 1970’s NCAA Tournament, the best program year in and year out not in a power conference. Saint Mary’s can no longer be considered a serious at-large candidate, but the Gaels could still work their way into contention by winning out, including a season-sweep over Gonzga.

The Power Conferences

American Athletic
Site: Orlando
SMU is ineligible. The remaining 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 10: 8 vs. 9 (ESPNU–3:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (ESPNNews–6 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: 1 vs. 8/9 (ESPN2–12PM), 4 vs. 5 (ESPN2–2PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (ESPNU–7PM), 3 vs. 6 (ESPNU–9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: ESPN2 @ 3 & 5 PM

Championship–March 13: ESPN @ 3:15 PM

Current Standings

American Athletic Conference CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Temple 10 3 16 8
SMU 9 3 21 3
Cincinnati 9 4 19 7
Connecticut 8 4 18 7
Houston 8 5 18 7
Tulsa 8 5 16 9
Memphis 5 7 14 11
UCF 5 7 11 12
Tulane 3 10 10 16
East Carolina 2 10 10 15
South Florida 2 11 5 21

Safe
—–

Close
Connecticut

Bubble
Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa

With wins over Wichita State, Connecticut, and SMU, Tulsa could have been cruising up to Last Four In status with a win at UConn Saturday. Falling just short in a frantic comeback, keeps the Golden Hurricane out of the Dance for now. Temple is the hot team with five consecutive wins boosting the Owls into first place ahead of SMU in the league standings. Still, their resume needs a little more upward tweaking. Cincinnati has won six of seven and eight of ten games, and the Bearcats have a chance to work their way into the Field of 68 by closing strong with two wins from among Tulsa, Connecticut, and SMU.

 

Atlantic 10
Site: Brooklyn
All 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: American Sports Network 12-13 (6:30PM), 11-14 (9PM)

Second Round–March 10: NBC Sports Network 8-9 (12PM), 5-12/13 (2:30 PM), 7-10 (6:30 PM), 6-11/14 (9PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: NBC Sports Network 1-8/9 (12 PM), 4-5/12/13 (2:30 PM), 2-7/10 (6:30 PM), 3-6/11/14 (9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: CBS Sports Network @ 1:30 PM & 4:00 PM

Championship–March 13: CBS @ 12:30 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic 10 CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Dayton 11 1 21 3
Saint Joseph’s (PA) 10 2 21 4
Virginia Commonwealth 10 2 18 7
St. Bonaventure 9 3 17 6
George Washington 7 5 18 7
Davidson 6 6 14 9
Richmond 6 6 14 10
Rhode Island 6 6 14 11
Duquesne 5 7 15 10
Massachusetts 4 8 11 13
Fordham 3 9 12 11
George Mason 3 9 9 16
Saint Louis 3 9 8 16
La Salle 1 11 5 18

Safe
Dayton

Close
St. Joseph’s

Bubble
VCU, George Washington, St. Bonaventure

St. Joe’s has won nine of their last ten, and the Hawks could move to safe status with a midweek win over Dayton. Losing at UMass last week sent VCU down to the Bubble, and the Rams don’t seem to be clicking at crunch time like they did when Shaka Smart coached this team. GWU has fallen even more than VCU. The Colonials have only split their last eight games, and without a mad dash to the finish, they will be NIT-bound. St. Bonaventure owns a five-game winning streak, but the Bonnies must pick up a signature win on the road to climb high enough to earn an at-large bid. They will get that chance with a Saturday afternoon contest at Dayton.

 

Atlantic Coast
Site: Washington, D.C.
Louisville is ineligible. The remaining 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 8: ESPN2 12 vs. 13 (12PM), 11 vs. 14 (2 PM)

Second Round–March 9: ESPN 8 vs. 9 (12 PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (2 PM), ESPN2 7 vs. 10 (7 PM), 6 vs. 11/14 (9 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: ESPN 1 vs. 8/9 (12 PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (2 PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6/11/14 (9 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM & 9:00 PM

Championship– March 12: ESPN @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic Coast CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
North Carolina 10 2 21 4
Miami (FL) 9 3 20 4
Virginia 9 4 20 5
Notre Dame 9 4 18 7
Duke 8 4 19 6
Louisville 8 4 19 6
Clemson 8 5 15 10
Syracuse 8 5 18 8
Pittsburgh 6 6 17 7
Florida State 6 7 16 9
Virginia Tech 5 7 13 12
Georgia Tech 3 9 13 12
North Carolina State 3 9 13 12
Wake Forest 1 12 10 15
Boston College 0 12 7 18

Safe
Virginia, North Carolina, Miami (Fla.), Duke

Close
Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh

Bubble
Florida State, Clemson
Duke moved into safe status with wins over Louisville and Virginia. With three straight wins over North Carolina, Clemson, and Louisville, Notre Dame is maybe one more win away from moving to the Safe line. Syracuse has won five in a row, and a Saturday win over Pittsburgh may be enough to move the Orangemen to Safe status. as for the Panthers, three consecutive losses and a 3-6 record after a 3-0 start in league play is quickly pushing them down to the Bubble. Pitt must correct the free fall and win at least three of their last six games and then once in the ACC Tournament to stay on the positive side of the Dance fence. Florida State faces must wins this week in games with Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. The Seminoles then need to win at least one of their last three against Duke, Notre Dame, and Syracuse and then probably win one ACC Tournament game before they become serious players. Clemson probably needs to get to 12-6 in league play to make the Tournament, because the Tigers don’t have much to show outside of league play with no impressive wins.

Bubble Buster: Virginia Tech has played the league leaders close and owns a win over Virginia. They will have to win four games in four days, but it is remotely possible, they could do it.

 

Big 12
Site: Kansas City
All 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: ESPNU 8 vs. 9 (7:00 PM), 7 vs. 10 (9:00 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: ESPN2 4 vs. 5 (12:30 PM), 1 vs. 8/9 (2:30 PM), ESPNU 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6 (9 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM & 9:00 PM

Championship–March 12: ESPN @ 6:00 PM

Current Standings

Big 12 CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Kansas 9 3 21 4
West Virginia 9 3 20 5
Oklahoma 8 4 20 4
Baylor 7 5 18 7
Iowa State 7 5 18 7
Texas 7 5 16 9
Texas Tech 5 7 15 9
Kansas State 3 9 14 11
Oklahoma State 3 9 12 13
TCU 2 10 11 14

Safe
Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa State

Close
Texas, Baylor

Bubble
Texas Tech, Kansas St.

Texas and Baylor are virtually safe at this moment, just as long as neither goes into a free-fall. The Longhorns have a 21 RPI, while Baylor is at 30, and both teams’ schedules will only send those numbers higher shy of losing out. Texas Tech is now a serious player following a week in which the Red Raiders beat Iowa State and then trounced Baylor in Waco. TTU can get into the Dance with an 8-10 league record and one conference tourney win. Kansas State is a different story altogether. The Wildcats have a lot of work left to do. It will take a sweep of TCU plus upset wins over Texas and Texas Tech just to get to 7-11 in league play, which would be a historic low conference record for any at-large team. We don’t see the boys from the Little Apple making it this year.

 

Big East
Site: New York (St. John’s is the host at Madison Square Garden)
All 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: Fox Sports 1 8 vs. 9 (7:00 PM) 7 vs. 10 (9:30 PM *)

Quarterfinal–March 10: Fox Sports 1 1 vs. 8/9 (12 PM), 4 vs. 5 (2:30 PM *), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6 (9:30 PM *)

Semifinal–March 11: Fox Sports 1 @ 6:30 PM & 9:00 PM *

Championship–March 12: FOX @ 5:30 PM

* All Games immediately following another game will begin 30 minutes after the conclusion of the preceding game. Times given are approximate.

Current Standings

Big East CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Villanova 12 1 22 3
Xavier 10 3 22 3
Creighton 8 5 17 9
Seton Hall 7 5 17 7
Providence 7 6 19 7
Georgetown 7 6 14 12
Butler 6 7 17 8
Marquette 5 8 16 10
DePaul 2 10 8 16
St. John’s 0 13 7 19

Safe
Villanova, Xavier

Close
Providence

Bubble
Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton

A 2-4 slide has begun to drop Providence out of Safe status and close to falling to Bubble status. The Friars next two games are on the road against Xavier and Seton Hall and two more losses sends them down to the Bubble. Seton Hall’s home loss to Butler damaged but did not destroy the Pirates’ chances, and did not rescue the Bulldogs. It just left both in limbo with more work to accomplish if they want a Dance ticket. Creighton is trying to be like a stretch-running horse, picking the right time to start a winning streak that has reached three games. A win at Butler tomorrow night would send the Blue Jays ahead of both Butler and Seton Hall in the Bubble department.

 

Big Ten
Site: Indianapolis
All 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: ESPN2 12 vs. 13 (4:30 PM), Big Ten Network 11 vs. 14 (7:00 PM)

Second Round–March 10: Big Ten Network 8 vs. 9 (12PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (2:30 PM), ESPN2 7 v. 10 (6:30PM), 6 vs. 11/14 (9PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: ESPN 1 vs. 8/9 (12PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (2:30PM), Big Ten Net. 2 vs. 7/10 (6:30PM), 3 vs. 6/11/14 (9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: CBS @ 1:00 PM & 3:30 PM

Championship–March 13: CBS @ 3:00 PM

Current Standings

Big Ten CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Iowa 11 2 20 5
Indiana 10 3 20 6
Maryland 10 3 22 4
Michigan 9 4 19 7
Wisconsin 8 4 16 9
Purdue 8 5 20 6
Ohio State 8 5 16 10
Michigan State 8 5 21 5
Nebraska 6 7 14 12
Northwestern 5 8 17 9
Penn State 3 9 12 13
Illinois 3 9 11 14
Rutgers 0 12 6 19
Minnesota 0 13 6 19

Safe
Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue

Close
Indiana, Michigan

Bubble
Wisconsin

If the NCAA Tournament began today, Wisconsin would be in the field. The Badgers are the hottest team in the league with seven consecutive wins, including a mighty impressive 13-point win at Maryland Saturday night, in which the Badgers were in control for almost the entire game, following an early 23-5 run.

 

Pac-12
Site: Las Vegas
All 12 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: Pac-12 Net. 8 vs. 9 (3PM), 5 vs. 12 (5:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (9PM), 6 vs. 11 (11:30 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: Pac-12 Net. 1 vs. 8/9 (3PM), 4 vs. 5/12 (5:30 PM, 2 vs. 7/10 (9PM), Fox Sports 1 3 vs. 6/11 (11:30 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: Pac-12 Network @ 9:00 PM, Fox Sports 1 @ 11:30 PM

Championship–March 12: Fox Sports 1 @ 10:00 PM

Current Standings

Pac-12 CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Oregon 9 4 20 6
Arizona 9 4 21 5
Colorado 8 5 19 7
Utah 8 5 19 7
USC 7 5 18 7
California 7 5 17 8
Washington 7 6 15 10
Oregon State 6 7 15 9
Stanford 5 7 12 11
UCLA 5 7 14 11
Arizona State 4 9 14 12
Washington State 1 12 9 16

Safe
Oregon, Arizona, Utah, USC

Close
California, Colorado

Bubble
Oregon St., Washington, Stanford, UCLA

Cal’s three straight wins gives the Bears a leg up on the five other contenders in the Close or Bubble range. Cal’s last six games are pivotal, starting with a road trip to the Evergreen State to take on Washington and Washington State; followed by home games with USC and UCLA; and concluding with road games at Arizona and Arizona State. A 4-2 finish would give them enough wins to secure a bid. Colorado must win three out of their final five and then do something in the Pac-12 Tournament, and the Buffs have a tough road to climb to get there. As for the four teams on the Bubble, only Oregon State is playing like they belong in the conversation. It figures that one of these four will move into the field, but it is not a guarantee. Washington is the most likely of this quartet to get hot and go on a run in Las Vegas.

 

Southeastern
Site: Nashville (Vanderbilt is the host team)
Missouri is ineligible. The remaining 13 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: SEC Network 12 vs. 13 (8:00 PM)

Second Round–March 10: SEC Net. 8 vs. 9 (1 PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (3:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (7 PM), 6 vs. 11 (9:30 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: SEC Net. 1 vs. 8/9 (1 PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (3:30 PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6/11 (9:30 PM)

Semifinal–March 12: ESPN 1:00 PM & 3:30 PM

Championship–March 13: ESPN 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Southeastern CONFERENCE OVERALL
Team W L W L
Kentucky 9 3 19 6
LSU 9 3 16 9
South Carolina 8 4 21 4
Texas A&M 7 5 18 7
Florida 7 5 16 9
Georgia 7 5 14 9
Vanderbilt 7 5 15 10
Ole Miss 6 6 16 9
Alabama 6 6 15 9
Arkansas 5 7 12 13
Tennessee 5 7 12 13
Mississippi State 3 9 10 14
Auburn 3 9 9 15
Missouri 2 10 9 16

Safe
Kentucky

Close
Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida

Bubble
LSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss

Texas A&M fell from the Safe to Close with their 0 for February streak. 3-3 is about the absolute worst the Aggies can finish, and they will be in with a 10-8 league mark with just one conference tournament win. South Carolina and Florida will eventually play themselves into the Safe range short of losing four in a row like A&M. LSU is tied for first in the league standings, and with Ben Simmons, it figures that the Selection Committee will give the Tigers major extra credit. Alabama is the team nobody wants to play at the present. The win at Florida Saturday night was ugly, but the Crimson Tide dominated the Gators in the second half and looked like an Alabama team from the Wimp Sanderson days. With their schedule, a 10-8 record probably gets ‘Bama in the party. Vanderbilt has yet to get a signature win away from home. They still have road games at Florida and Texas A&M, and it figures the Commodores will have to win at least one of those two and hold serve at home, or if they cannot win a key road game, Vandy will need to make it to the semifinals of the conference tournament to have a shot. Ole Miss has even less road success this year, and the Rebels have just one more chance to pick up a quality road win at Texas A&M, who they play tomorrow night. Short of winning in Aggieland, Ole Miss will probably have to make it all the way to the conference championship game to have any at-large shot.

 

This Week’s Bracketology Field of 68

Seed Team
1 Kansas
1 Villanova
1 Oklahoma
1 Virginia
2 North Carolina
2 Iowa
2 Xavier
2 Maryland
3 Miami (Fla.)
3 West Virginia
3 Oregon
3 Michigan St.
4 Iowa St.
4 Kentucky
4 Dayton
4 Duke
5 Purdue
5 Arizona
5 Utah
5 Notre Dame
6 Texas
6 Texas A&M
6 USC
6 Indiana
7 South Carolina
7 Baylor
7 California
7 Providence
8 Colorado
8 Syracuse
8 Florida
8 Connecticut
9 St. Joseph’s
9 Pittsburgh
9 Michigan
9 Wisconsin
10 Oregon St.
10 Seton Hall
10 Florida St.
10 Wichita St.
11 Monmouth
11 Gonzaga
11 Valparaiso
11 San Diego St.
12 Cincinnati
12 Texas Tech
12 LSU
12 VCU
12 Temple
12 UALR
13 Chattanooga
13 Akron
13 Stony Brook
13 South Dakota St.
14 Hawaii
14 Yale
14 UNC-Wilmington
14 UAB
15 Tennessee St.
15 Stephen F. Austin
15 New Mexico St.
15 Montana
16 UNC-Asheville
16 Hampton
16 NJIT
16 Wagner
16 Bucknell
16 Texas Southern

 

Last 4 In
Texas Tech
LSU
VCU
Temple
 
First 4 Out
Alabama
Butler
Washington
St. Bonaventure
 
Next 4 Out
Vanderbilt
GWU
Tulsa
UCLA
 
1st Round #16’s
NJIT
Wagner
Bucknell
Texas Southern

 

 

April 6, 2015

NCAA National Championship Game By The Numbers

Duke (34-4) vs. Wisconsin (35-3)
CBS Television Tip Time: 9:18 PM EDT
Team Offense Duke Wisconsin
Field Goals 1075 989
Field Goal Attempts 2140 2054
3-Point Shots 279 281
3-Point Attempts 721 769
Free Throws 594 578
Free Throw Attempts 853 755
Offensive Rebounds 439 372
Defensive Rebounds 964 931
Turnovers 416 291
Steals 274 171
Possessions Per Game 66.4 59.8
Points Per Game 79.6 72.7
Team Defense Duke Wisconsin
Field Goals 937 872
Field Goal Attempts 2220 2041
3-Point Shots 192 198
3-Point Attempts 612 527
Free Throws 373 317
Free Throw Attempts 538 449
Offensive Rebounds 417 291
Defensive Rebounds 775 782
Turnovers 476 373
Steals 213 159
Possessions Per Game 66.7 59.9
Points Per Game 64.2 57.9
Four Factors Duke Wisconsin
Effective Field Goal % 56.8 55.0
Effective Field Goal %–Defense 46.5 47.6
Offensive Rebound Rate 36.2 32.2
Opponents Offensive Rebound Rate 30.2 23.8
Turnover Rate 16.5 12.5
Opponents Turnover Rate 18.8 16.0
Free Throw Rate* (FT/100 Poss.) 23.6 24.8
Opponents Free Throw Rate * 14.7 13.6
PiRate Criteria Factors Duke Wisconsin
Scoring Margin 15.4 14.8
Field Goal % Margin 8.0 5.4
Rebound Margin 5.6 5.4
Turnover Margin 1.6 2.1
R+T Rating # (see below for formula) 19.6 19.1
Won-Loss Away From Home 15-2 21-2
Schedule Strength (Per ESPN) 61.6 61.5
# R+T Rating components: Duke Wisconsin
Rebound Margin * 2 11.2 10.8
Average Steals * .5 3.6 2.2
6 – Opponents Average Steals 3.2 4.0
Turnover Margin 1.6 2.1
R+T Rating 19.6 19.1
PiRate Ratings
PiRate Red Wisc by 1
PiRate White Duke by 1
PiRate Blue Duke by 2

100 Computer Simulations

Duke Wins: 52

Wisconsin Wins: 48

Note: 9 Overtime Games 2 of which went to double overtime, and one to triple overtime

Average Score: Duke 70.7  Wisconsin 69.4

Outlier A: Duke 74  Wisconsin 58

Outlier B: Wisconsin 70  Duke 60

This concludes the PiRate Ratings College Basketball Coverage for the season.  We will return in a couple weeks to offer our take on the Kentucky Derby with an emphasis on the two possible super horses this year–Dortmund and Materiality.

 

March 31, 2015

Final Four Preview–Semifinals

Team Team Tip Time Network
Kentucky (38-0) Wisconsin (35-3) 6:09 PM EDT TBS
Duke (33-4) Michigan St. (27-11) 8:49 PM EDT TBS

Indianapolis will be rocking Saturday night as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four promises to be exciting with the potential for two close games.

The four teams share similar statistical competence where past National Champions have dominated, namely in rebounding.  As we told you a couple weeks ago, the one statistic that has 100% correlation with the National Champion is positive rebounding margin.  Since 1954, when complete rebounding statistics were archived, every National Champion has finished the season with positive rebounding margin.  This is not true for the other statistics, as we have crowned champions with negative field goal margin, negative turnover margin, and negative free throw margin.

This year is no different; the four combatants are all dominant rebounding teams, each outrebounding their opposition by more than five per game.

Looking back at the remaining Pirate Ratings Final Four Criteria, we have four teams that fit our mold like a glove.  All four have scoring margins greater than 8.0 per game, with three holding double-digit socring margins.  Two of the four hold 8% or greater field goal percentage margins, with one pushing that number into double digits.  Three of the four have better than 75% winning percentage away from their home floor, and all four have fat R+T ratings.

Final Four Offensive Statistics

Team FG FGA 3pt 3pta FT FTa OR DR TO Stl
Duke 1049 2090 277 711 567 816 432 935 408 265
Kentucky  980 2096 200 577 676 933 485 975 402 248
Michigan St. 992 2126 287 743 441 698 427 998 427 199
Wisconsin 966 2006 274 752 560 733 360 909 281 170

Final Four Defensive Statistics

Team FG FGA 3pt 3pta FT FTa OR DR TO Stl
Duke 915 2165 185 592 363 522 408 751 462 209
Kentucky  727 2068 168 629 425 650 451 730 523 181
Michigan St. 807 2054 222 702 565 783 371 840 409 208
Wisconsin 846 1987 195 522 308 439 285 766 367 154

Four Factors Statistics

Team EFG DEFG OR% DOR% TO% DTU% FT* DFT*
Duke 56.8 46.5 36.5 30.4 16.6 18.7 23.1 14.7
Kentucky  51.5 39.2 39.9 31.6 16.4 21.4 27.5 17.4
Michigan St. 53.4 44.7 33.7 27.1 17.4 16.6 17.9 22.9
Wisconsin 55.0 47.5 32.0 23.9 12.4 16.1 24.6 13.5

PiRate Ratings Criteria Statistics for Final Four

Team PPG D PPG Mar. FG-M Rb-M TO-M R+T WLRd W-L SOS Poss.
Duke 79.5 64.3 15.2 7.9 5.6 1.5 16.6 14-2 33-4 61.8 66.3
Kentucky  74.6 53.9 20.8 11.6 7.3 3.2 22.4 18-0 38-0 58.7 64.6
Michigan St. 71.4 63.2 8.2 7.4 5.6 -0.5 13.9 13-6 27-11 67.0 64.7
Wisconsin 72.8 57.8 15.0 5.6 5.7 2.3 17.9 20-2 35-3 61.1 59.9

PiRate Ratings For Semifinal Round

Team Team Red White Blue
Kentucky Wisconsin 3 3 6
Duke Michigan St. 6 5 8

100 Computer Simulations For Semifinal Round

Kentucky vs. Wisconsin

Kentucky Wins: 94

Wisconsin Wins: 6

Average Score: Kentucky 71  Wisconsin 62

Outlier A: Kentucky 78  Wisconsin 62

Outlier B: Wisconsin 64  Kentucky 59

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke Wins: 84

Michigan St. Wins: 16

Average Score: Duke 77  Michigan St. 70

Outlier A: Duke 84  Michigan St. 62

Outlier B: Michigan St. 73  Duke 64

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