The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 18, 2022

Big Ten Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am

Will the Big Ten Conference become the Big Billion? Rumors from multiple sources indicate that this league is on the precipice of signing a TV and media rights package that will be north of a billion dollars. This deal does not include Notre Dame. Should the Irish end up in this league, the Big Ten will dwarf even the SEC in money paid out per school.

USC and UCLA are set to join the league in two years. Whether other teams join as well is anybody’s guess.

Both divisions this year figure to have competitive races. Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to win the East and the league overall, but there are multiple teams capable of upsetting the Buckeyes. Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are strong once again, and it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that at least one of these contenders upsets the Buckeyes.

Maryland has an easy out of conference schedule and has a good chance to gain bowl eligibility. Rutgers and Indiana will bring up the rear.

In the West, five different teams could contend for the division title. Purdue has the benefit of avoiding Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State from the East. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are all about equal in talent this year, while Nebraska could finally return to the plus side of .500. Illinois and Northwestern are one or more excellent recruiting classes away from being contenders.

Big Ten Preseason PiRate Ratings

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.128.6126.6129.5128.2
Michigan123.6121.8123.4122.9
Michigan St.118.9117.3116.7117.6
Penn St.115.0114.5114.0114.5
Maryland110.2110.0109.7109.9
Indiana102.0101.499.0100.8
Rutgers101.3100.498.2100.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin118.0117.3117.0117.5
Iowa117.4115.9115.4116.2
Purdue116.7115.6114.9115.8
Minnesota113.6113.0114.0113.5
Nebraska110.1110.1109.0109.7
Illinois103.0103.6101.1102.5
Northwestern99.7100.897.799.4

Big Ten112.7112.0111.4112.0

Preseason Official Big Ten Media Poll

Votes
#East1st PlaceOverall
1Ohio St.36252
2Michigan0203
3Penn St.0169
4Michigan St.0162
5Maryland0104
6Rutgers060
7Indiana058

#West1st PlaceOverall
1Wisconsin31246
2Iowa3198
3Minnesota2162
4Purdue0153
5Nebraska0123
6Illinois065
7Northwestern061

ChampionshipOverall
Ohio St.36

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

EastConf.Overall
Ohio St.9-013-0
Michigan8-111-1
Penn St.6-38-4
Michigan St.6-39-3
Maryland3-66-6
Rutgers1-83-9
Indiana1-83-9

WestConf.Overall
Purdue7-210-3
Wisconsin6-39-3
Minnesota6-39-3
Iowa5-48-4
Nebraska4-56-6
Northwestern1-84-8
Illinois0-93-9

July 18, 2022

PiRate College Football Game Debuts

After months of planning and design, the makers of the PiRate Ratings have created a college football game that can be played by one person in solitaire mode or by two people in head-to-head mode. All teams have been designed to perform as they did in real life using the PiRate Ratings’ Strength of Schedule formula to adjust their statistics to account for quality of opposition.

If you played the Sports Illustrated and Avalon Hill games of Bowl Bound and Pay Dirt, you will find this game a little more strategically involved while a little easier to play, as it used standard dice to see the results.

For the low price of $8, we will send you a zip file with all the charts, rules, and a scoreboard and numbers that you can print out to keep track of the action. We also send you a blank statistics sheet so you can record the action for posterity.

All you need are the dice, or to use one of many different free online dice rollers available online.

Go to https://pirate-football.square.site/ to purchase.

Our debut college game is the 1960-1979 Best of the Big Ten Conference. Here are the teams included in this set.

1963 Illinois–The greatest linebacker of all time, Dick Butkus, played center as well and made All-American with a powerful team

1967 Indiana–One of the most exciting teams of all time, the “Cardiac Kids” kept pulling out late victories week after week until they won a trip to the Rose Bowl

1960 Iowa–Some computer formulas say the Hawkeyes were the best team in the nation, as they beat 7 ranked teams and finished 8-1

1973 Michigan–Bo Schembechler’s Wolverines went 10-0-1 but had to stay home for the Holidays thanks to the archaic Big Ten rules of the time

1966 Michigan St.–Duffy Daugherty stockpiled some of the best talent ever to appear on a Big Ten campus at the same time. Bubba Smith anchored a stellar defense, while Gene Washington stretched defenses with his quickness and deceptive moves

1960 Minnesota–Coach Murray Warmath played for General Robert Neyland at Tennessee and continued to follow the General’s philosophy of playing conservative football and waiting for the other team to make the mistakes. He had a great squad in 1960, featuring the multi-tooled Sandy Stephens, who was the starting quarterback, a starting defensive back, the team’s punter, and the top punt returner. Future All-Pro Bobby Bell led the defensive charge and also opened up running lanes as an offensive lineman

1962 Northwestern–Before he became a multiple national championship winning coach at Notre Dame, Ara Parseghian took the Wildcat to Number 1 in the polls for a couple weeks in 1962

1973 Ohio State–Woody Hayes had no trouble stockpiling talent, and he had it on both sides of the ball in 1973, as the Buckeyes went 10-0-1 with a 21-point win in the Rose Bowl

1967 Purdue–The Boilermakers split the conference championship, as Leroy Keyes may have deserved the Heisman Trophy with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, run the sweep and off-tackle as competently as anybody in the game, and to pull up and throw a halfback option pass like a pro. Having future pro quarterback Mike Phipps made the offense click

1962 Wisconsin-The Badgers came within one close incomplete pass of coming back from a 42-14 deficit to win the Rose Bowl

March 19, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 pm

Sunday’s Games

Sunday, March 20, 2022
TeamTeamSpread
IllinoisHouston-3.3
VillanovaOhio St.4.4
DukeMichigan St.6.5
WisconsinIowa St.3.8
Texas TechNotre Dame7.3
AuburnMiami (Fla.)8.9
PurdueTexas2.6
ArizonaTCU10.3
XavierFlorida2.6
SMUWashington St.2.7
VanderbiltDayton2.3
North TexasVirginia3.2
OklahomaSt. Bonaventure6.7
VMIUNC Wilmington0.7
Florida AtlanticNorthern Colorado5.7
UNC GreensboroBoston1.3
Abilene ChristianTroy3.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Data

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Illinois233060.736.733.445.431.77.712.8
Houston101156.034.137.843.528.714.322.2
Villanova82861.035.930.948.230.54.811.5
Ohio St.1313160.037.328.846.233.5-1.06.0
Duke74457.636.831.846.928.64.112.7
Michigan St.385360.837.830.747.930.43.08.5
Wisconsin493860.131.225.949.932.33.47.3
Iowa St.1511059.736.828.250.728.11.23.8
Texas Tech65160.831.433.344.336.19.617.5
Notre Dame298456.838.022.549.327.0-2.53.8
Auburn24859.232.033.142.631.65.912.5
Miami (Fla.)1715757.035.323.453.928.8-5.01.3
Purdue310060.039.135.249.236.312.119.2
Texas321360.232.331.846.132.37.210.1
Arizona52058.235.434.541.935.17.017.9
TCU802460.330.437.847.931.212.516.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Game Analysis

Illinois vs. Houston

This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).

Villanova vs. Ohio St.

This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.

This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.

The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.

Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.

This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.

Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame

If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.

Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)

Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.

Purdue vs. Texas

This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.

Arizona vs. TCU

One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.

March 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 6, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
America East Conference–Quarterfinals
Higher Seed at Home
Home TeamLower SeedSpread
VermontNJIT21.5
Maryland Baltimore Co.UMass Lowell2.5
New HampshireBinghamton6.6
HartfordAlbany3.7
Big South Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Charlotte
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
LongwoodWinthrop-1.2
Colonial Athletic Association–Quarterfinals
Charlotte
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TowsonNortheastern11.9
DrexelDelaware0.9
UNC WilmingtonElon3.4
HofstraCharleston2.6
Missouri Valley Conference CHAMPIONSHIP
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
DrakeLoyola (Chi.)4.2
Patriot League–Semifinals
Higher Seed at Home
HomeVisitorSpread
ColgateLehigh11.7
Navy
Southern Conference–Semifinals
Asheville, NC
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
ChattanoogaWofford2.4
FurmanSamford8.5
Summit League–Quarterfinals Continue
Sioux Falls, SD
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Kansas CitySouth Dakota0.1
Oral RobertsWestern Illinois6.0
Sun Belt Conference–Semifinals
Pensacola, FL
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TroyLouisiana-0.3
Appalachian St.Georgia St.-0.4

Sunday’s Regularly Scheduled Games
Home TeamVisitorSpread
MemphisHouston-3.7
RutgersPenn St.4.2
Ohio St.Michigan3.7
WisconsinNebraska13.1
TulsaCentral Florida-2.5
TempleSouth Florida9.1
SMUTulane7.4
Michigan St.Maryland5.9
IllinoisIowa2.0
NorthwesternMinnesota5.8

Dance Tickets Punched

1Murray St.Ohio Valley30-2

February 20, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
ButlerProvidence-3.7
Wichita St.Houston-8.3
WisconsinMichigan1.8
MaineNJIT-3.0
DetroitWright St.0.6
IonaFairfield11.2
CincinnatiTemple7.4
Central FloridaEast Carolina10.1
MilwaukeePurdue Fort Wayne-2.8
Northern IowaMissouri St.-1.4
MaristQuinnipiac6.6
SienaSaint Peter’s-2.4
ManhattanRider3.0
FordhamGeorge Mason-3.2
SMUMemphis-0.1
CreightonMarquette0.2
OaklandNorthern Kentucky6.9
Green BayCleveland St.-8.4
San Jose St.New Mexico-6.0
HartfordStony Brook0.5
Loyola (MD)Lehigh5.0
PurdueRutgers12.6
BellarmineJacksonville St.0.8
USCWashington St.5.0
MissouriMississippi St.-5.9

February 2, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
MissouriFlorida-7.5
Abilene ChristianChicago St.18.3
UNC AshevilleLongwood0.1
RadfordCharleston Southern10.4
MinnesotaPurdue-10.1
KentuckyVanderbilt17.3
XavierButler14.3
LafayetteAmerican4.5
Loyola (MD)Army3.3
ColgateBucknell17.0
East CarolinaTemple0.2
LehighNavy-7.3
HamptonUSC Upstate-2.6
High PointGardner-Webb-2.2
PresbyterianCampbell-2.3
Miami (Fla.)Notre Dame3.1
Wake ForestPittsburgh13.8
ClemsonFlorida St.3.7
VermontNJIT19.1
MaineUMass Lowell-7.8
AlbanyUMBC1.2
New HampshireHartford5.2
Stony BrookBinghamton7.6
Indiana St.Drake-3.9
George WashingtonLa Salle1.1
George MasonSaint Louis-2.1
FordhamRhode Island-4.4
Western CarolinaEast Tennessee St.-4.8
UNC GreensboroVMI1.8
FurmanThe Citadel16.1
GeorgiaArkansas-10.2
Delaware St.Coppin St.-11.1
HoustonTulane18.8
UT Rio Grande ValleyLamar6.8
Northern IowaBradley2.3
Loyola (Chi.)Illinois St.14.9
SamfordChattanooga-9.3
IllinoisWisconsin6.8
NC St.Syracuse0.5
Virginia TechGeorgia Tech11.7
Kansas St.Oklahoma St.0.6
Southern IllinoisMissouri St.-3.6
VCUDayton4.2
MarquetteVillanova-3.6

Conference Tournament Action Just Four Weeks Away

The Atlantic Sun, Horizon League, and Patriot League Conference Tournaments begin play in four weeks with 29 additional conference tournament to follow. Here’s a look at each conference with the start dates and dates of their championship.

Conference Tournaments 2022BeginsEndsTeams in
ConferenceSiteMarchMarchBracket
America EastHigher Seed Home5128
American AthleticFort Worth, TX101311
Atlantic 10Washington, DC91314
Atlantic CoastBrooklyn81215
Atlantic SunHigher Seed Home1812
Big 12Kansas City91210
Big EastNew York91211
Big SkyBoise, ID91211
Big SouthCharlotte2612
Big TenIndianapolis91314
Big WestHenderson, NV81210
Colonial AthleticWashington, DC589
Conference USAFrisco, TX91214
HorizonSee Footnote1812
Ivy LeagueBoston12134
Metro AtlanticAtlantic City, NJ81211
Mid-AmericanCleveland10128
Mideastern AthleticNorfolk, VA9128
Missouri ValleySt. Louis3610
Mountain WestLas Vegas6911
NortheastHigher Seed Home289
Ohio ValleyEvansville, IN258
Pac-12Las Vegas91212
PatriotHigher Seed Home1910
SoutheasternTampa91314
SouthernAsheville, NC4710
SouthlandKaty, TX9138
Southwestern AthleticBirmingham9128
SummitSioux Falls, SD588
Sun BeltPensacola, FL3712
West CoastLas Vegas3810
Western AthleticLas Vegas8129
Footnote : The opening two rounds played on higher seed home. Final 2 rounds will be played in Indianapolis

January 30, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 30, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
BrownCornell4.5
PurdueOhio St.9.2
East CarolinaCincinnati-5.9
Wright St.Purdue Fort Wayne4.4
Northern KentuckyCleveland St.-1.4
George WashingtonFordham-1.5
ProvidenceMarquette1.1
WisconsinMinnesota9.2
Fairleigh DickinsonCentral Connecticut1.3
BryantLong Island5.1
IonaSaint Peter’s11.1
Morgan St.Delaware St.14.1
St. Francis (NY)Wagner-11.8
DrakeLoyola (Chi.)-3.2
BradleyIndiana St.7.9
MassachusettsGeorge Mason8.7
SienaQuinnipiac0.4
ManhattanMarist-2.0
MonmouthNiagara8.5
RiderCanisius1.9
Boston CollegePittsburgh4.0
Southern IllinoisValparaiso5.8
BucknellLoyola (MD)-3.9
McNeese St.New Orleans0.7
Washington St.Colorado5.8

January 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 27, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
NebraskaWisconsin-8.3
Florida Gulf CoastEastern Kentucky2.8
Appalachian St.Arkansas St.3.7
Tennessee TechMurray St.-12.7
MarshallMiddle Tennessee-0.6
WagnerSt. Francis (PA)14.8
Sacred HeartSt. Francis (NY)4.1
Fairleigh DickinsonMount St. Mary’s-5.2
Central ConnecticutLong Island-6.4
BryantMerrimack9.3
UNC AshevilleGardner-Webb1.4
LibertyNorth Alabama13.5
JacksonvilleLipscomb5.9
DetroitIllinois Chicago6.6
Robert MorrisMilwaukee0.2
Youngstown St.Green Bay7.9
Coastal CarolinaLittle Rock11.4
James MadisonDrexel1.8
CharlestonHofstra-2.4
UNC WilmingtonNortheastern1.9
TowsonDelaware6.7
ElonWilliam & Mary8.8
Louisiana TechRice9.3
StetsonBellarmine-2.8
Kennesaw St.Jacksonville St.-2.6
UL MonroeGeorgia Southern1.0
MinnesotaOhio St.-3.9
Northern IllinoisBall St.-0.9
Southern IllinoisLoyola (Chi.)-7.3
UTSAFlorida International-4.1
Southern Miss.North Texas-14.1
Northern ColoradoWeber St.-0.5
Houston BaptistNew Orleans-4.9
Chicago St.Utah Valley-15.2
North FloridaCentral Arkansas6.8
UT ArlingtonTexas St.-1.4
South AlabamaTroy5.7
LouisianaGeorgia St.3.6
OmahaOral Roberts-14.6
South DakotaNorth Dakota St.0.5
South Dakota St.North Dakota23.4
SIU EdwardsvilleTennessee St.4.6
Austin PeayBelmont-13.2
Northwestern St.Incarnate Word5.0
McNeese St.Nicholls St.-3.2
IowaPurdue-1.8
UCLACalifornia15.9
MemphisEast Carolina13.7
UC DavisCal St. Fullerton0.8
Southeast Missouri St.Morehead St.-7.2
UT MartinEastern Illinois11.1
Western KentuckyUAB-5.4
UTEPFlorida Atlantic0.6
MontanaIdaho14.0
Montana St.Eastern Washington6.2
SE LouisianaTexas A&M-CC1.2
DenverUMKC-1.3
UC IrvineCal St. Bakersfield10.0
UC San DiegoCal Poly5.8
UC RiversideLong Beach St.6.9
Portland St.Southern Utah-4.5
Sacramento St.Idaho St.6.5
PortlandPacific4.1
San FranciscoSaint Mary’s2.2
San DiegoPepperdine8.8
GonzagaLoyola Marymount26.3
USCStanford10.5
WashingtonColorado-2.4
Santa ClaraBYU-3.0
HawaiiCal St. Northridge13.1

January 13, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 13, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:42 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
Kennesaw St.Florida Gulf Coast-2.5
DePaulSeton Hall-6.0
Washington St.Stanford7.7
ArmyBoston University-1.5
Appalachian St.Coastal Carolina1.0
WisconsinOhio St.0.7
Texas TechOklahoma St.6.4
NiagaraCanisius7.7
Loyola (MD)Lafayette6.3
BucknellLehigh3.9
GeorgetownButler1.9
Holy CrossAmerican-0.1
NavyColgate4.2
Old DominionUTSA11.3
MarshallNorth Texas-4.8
Louisiana TechSouthern Miss.17.9
Middle TennesseeFlorida Atlantic2.7
CharlotteUTEP1.6
WinthropUNC Asheville4.6
Robert MorrisWright St.-4.7
Youngstown St.Northern Kentucky2.2
Cleveland St.Oakland-1.6
Purdue Fort WayneDetroit Mercy-0.8
MercerVMI1.3
The CitadelUNC Greensboro-2.7
UABFlorida International17.1
Murray St.Tennessee St.19.8
BelmontAustin Peay22.0
LamarSam Houston-4.3
UT Rio Grande ValleyChicago St.10.5
MilwaukeeIllinois Chicago1.8
Green BayIUPUI9.9
Texas St.UL Monroe7.1
UT ArlingtonLouisiana-0.5
South DakotaDenver8.0
North DakotaWestern Illinois-9.8
OmahaSouth Dakota St.-18.0
Eastern IllinoisSIU Edwardsville-6.3
Western KentuckyRice7.7
MontanaSouthern Utah1.2
Weber St.Idaho16.4
Grand CanyonAbilene Christian3.0
New Mexico St.Tarleton St.8.2
South AlabamaGeorgia St.2.9
IowaIndiana3.4
UCLAOregon11.3
Long Beach St.UCSB-5.8
Cal St. FullertonCal St. Northridge9.0
Cal PolyUC Riverside-6.7
San DiegoPortland7.1
GonzagaBYU13.2
USCOregon St.16.4
ArizonaColorado16.5
PepperdineSaint Mary’s-12.0
San FranciscoLoyola Marymount10.1
HawaiiUC Irvine-6.4

January 9, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 9, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
IndianaMinnesota9.9
HarvardYale1.1
EvansvilleIllinois St.-0.5
MemphisCincinnati8.3
ColoradoWashington8.2
Ohio St.Northwestern7.6
MarylandWisconsin-0.4
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