The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 13, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Ohio -10.3 -9.0 -10.9
Kent St. Central Michigan -18.5 -17.4 -19.0
Bowling Green Toledo -17.1 -16.1 -18.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan -4.6 -2.7 -3.9
Northern Illinois Western Michigan 1.2 1.9 1.4
Ball St. Buffalo -16.9 -17.1 -18.3
South Florida Tulsa 18.3 17.4 19.4
Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 7.0 5.8 6.8
New Mexico UNLV 1.8 0.1 2.4
Indiana Rutgers 8.3 9.0 8.7
Georgia Kentucky 19.6 20.5 20.7
East Carolina Cincinnati -3.0 -3.2 -4.3
Duke Georgia Tech -7.3 -5.2 -7.3
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 17.3 16.8 17.6
Temple Central Florida -15.1 -16.0 -15.9
Wake Forest North Carolina St. -2.4 -3.5 -2.5
Louisville Syracuse 6.2 6.8 6.7
Northwestern Minnesota 7.8 5.8 8.5
Michigan St. Maryland 9.6 9.2 11.4
West Virginia Texas 2.3 2.3 2.3
Kansas Oklahoma -40.0 -35.4 -42.2
Wyoming Fresno St. 8.6 8.2 7.4
Boise St. Air Force 17.1 15.2 17.3
Utah St. Hawaii 12.0 10.2 11.9
Old Dominion Rice 14.6 15.6 14.7
Southern Miss. Charlotte 15.0 13.8 15.2
BYU Massachusetts 3.3 4.0 2.7
UTEP Louisiana Tech -14.5 -13.4 -15.0
Georgia Southern South Alabama -9.1 -9.7 -9.9
Texas Tech TCU -11.5 -9.8 -12.3
Iowa Purdue 13.0 12.9 12.2
Oregon Arizona 0.6 0.5 0.4
Ohio St. Illinois 46.7 43.4 48.1
Florida UAB 27.3 23.8 24.4
Oregon St. Arizona St. -7.9 -7.5 -9.1
Memphis SMU 13.2 12.2 13.4
Miami (Fla.) Virginia 27.4 26.4 26.8
Baylor Iowa St. -11.6 -10.3 -12.7
Arkansas Mississippi St. -12.9 -13.5 -13.5
Vanderbilt Missouri -6.6 -5.4 -7.2
Washington Utah 25.1 21.7 25.4
Auburn UL-Monroe 49.5 46.6 50.5
Oklahoma St. Kansas St. 16.5 15.4 17.3
Colorado St. San Jose St. 35.2 33.9 35.9
Penn St. Nebraska 32.1 29.9 33.3
Tennessee LSU -14.4 -13.8 -16.5
Notre Dame Navy 20.9 18.7 21.3
Tulane Houston -7.7 -6.9 -7.7
UL-Lafayatte New Mexico St. -2.4 0.6 -2.7
Idaho Coastal Carolina 13.8 13.6 13.9
North Texas Army -12.1 -10.2 -11.8
Arkansas St. Texas St. 24.2 23.1 26.0
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 13.4 15.1 14.2
Boston College (n) Connecticut 26.7 24.4 26.5
UTSA Marshall 0.3 1.3 -0.5
Ole Miss Texas A&M -1.0 -0.4 -1.3
Wisconsin Michigan 11.1 8.6 10.6
USC UCLA 17.8 17.5 18.3
Stanford California 16.9 17.3 18.3
San Diego St. Nevada 16.1 14.2 15.8

FBS vs. FCS Games

Home Visitor PiRate
Clemson Citadel 50.0
Alabama Mercer 49.0
Florida St. Delaware St. 50.0
North Carolina Western Carolina 24.0
South Carolina Wofford 27.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Michigan
15 TCU
16 Washington
17 Washington St.
18 Mississippi St.
19 North Carolina St.
20 Memphis
21 Virginia Tech
22 Michigan St.
23 Stanford
24 Iowa
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Northwestern
28 Wake Forest
29 Iowa St.
30 South Florida
31 Arizona
32 South Carolina
33 West Virginia
34 Georgia Tech
35 Boston College
36 San Diego St.
37 Toledo
38 Houston
39 Louisville
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 Navy
43 Florida Atlantic
44 Kentucky
45 Army
46 Arizona St.
47 Ohio
48 Oregon
49 Florida St.
50 Northern Illinois
51 SMU
52 UCLA
53 Texas Tech
54 Troy
55 Missouri
56 Utah
57 California
58 Syracuse
59 Fresno St.
60 Wyoming
61 Marshall
62 Purdue
63 Virginia
64 Minnesota
65 Ole Miss
66 Kansas St.
67 Indiana
68 North Texas
69 Maryland
70 Western Michigan
71 Florida
72 Colorado
73 Nebraska
74 Colorado St.
75 Duke
76 Central Michigan
77 Pittsburgh
78 Temple
79 Tennessee
80 Arkansas St.
81 Rutgers
82 Utah St.
83 Arkansas
84 Florida Int’l.
85 UAB
86 Vanderbilt
87 Tulane
88 Akron
89 Southern Miss.
90 Appalachian St.
91 North Carolina
92 Georgia St.
93 Air Force
94 Middle Tennessee
95 Eastern Michigan
96 Buffalo
97 Miami (O)
98 UTSA
99 Cincinnati
100 Louisiana Tech
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 New Mexico St.
105 South Alabama
106 Connecticut
107 Old Dominion
108 BYU
109 UL-Monroe
110 Baylor
111 Massachusetts
112 Illinois
113 Nevada
114 UL-Lafayette
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 Oregon St.
118 East Carolina
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 Georgia Southern
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

 

 

PiRate Predictive Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
2 Ohio St. 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
3 Auburn 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
4 Clemson 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
5 Penn St. 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
6 Washington 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
7 Georgia 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
8 Miami 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
9 Oklahoma 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
10 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
11 Wisconsin 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
12 Stanford 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
13 U S C 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
14 Virginia Tech 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
15 T C U 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
16 Notre Dame 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
17 L S U 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
18 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
19 Michigan 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
20 Florida St. 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
22 Georgia Tech 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
23 Washington St. 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
24 Central Florida 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
25 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
26 Iowa 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
27 Texas 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
28 Louisville 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
29 Wake Forest 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
30 West Virginia 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
31 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
32 South Florida 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 Kansas St. 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
35 Memphis 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Arizona 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
38 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
39 Kentucky 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
40 Texas A&M 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
41 Missouri 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
43 Oregon 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
44 Florida 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
45 Minnesota 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
46 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
47 Arizona St. 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
48 Duke 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
49 Pittsburgh 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
50 Colorado 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
51 Utah 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
52 Texas Tech 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
53 Ole Miss 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
54 California 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
55 Houston 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
56 Indiana 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 U C L A 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
59 San Diego St. 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
60 Virginia 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
61 N. Carolina 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
62 Toledo 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
63 Colo. State 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
64 Army 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
65 Navy 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
66 Wyoming 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
67 Ohio U 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
68 Vanderbilt 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
69 Florida Atlantic 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
70 Tennessee 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
71 SMU 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
73 Baylor 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
74 Arkansas 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
75 Western Michigan 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
76 Nebraska 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
77 Rutgers 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
78 Northern Illinois 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
79 Eastern Michigan 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
80 Arkansas St. 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
81 Troy 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Fresno St. 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
84 Temple 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
85 Tulsa 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
86 Oregon St. 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
87 Air Force 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
88 Tulane 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
91 Utah St. 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
92 W. Kentucky 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
93 U T S A 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
94 Massachusetts 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
95 BYU 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
96 Nevada 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
97 Miami (O) 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
98 Illinois 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
99 Cincinnati 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
100 Akron 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
101 N. Mexico St. 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
102 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
103 Middle Tennessee 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
104 U N L V 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
105 N. Texas 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
106 S. Alabama 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
107 Louisiana Tech 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
108 Florida Int’l. 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
109 New Mexico 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
110 Connecticut 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
111 Hawaii 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
113 Old Dominion 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
114 Georgia St. 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
115 UAB 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
116 East Carolina 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
117 UL-Lafayette 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
118 Kansas 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
119 UL-Monroe 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
120 Bowling Green 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
121 Idaho 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
125 Charlotte 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
126 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
127 Coastal Carolina 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
128 U T E P 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
129 San Jose St. 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 6-0 9-0 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
South Florida 5-1 8-1 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
Temple 3-3 5-5 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
Cincinnati 1-5 3-7 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
Connecticut 2-5 3-7 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
East Carolina 1-5 2-8 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
Navy 4-3 6-3 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
SMU 3-3 6-4 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
Tulane 2-4 4-6 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 9-1 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
N. Carolina St. 5-1 7-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-5 3-6 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
Louisville 3-4 6-4 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
Wake Forest 3-3 6-4 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
Boston College 3-4 5-5 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Syracuse 2-4 4-6 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 9-0 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
Virginia Tech 3-3 7-3 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
Georgia Tech 4-3 5-4 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
Duke 1-5 4-6 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
Pittsburgh 2-4 4-6 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
Virginia 3-3 6-4 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
N. Carolina 1-6 2-8 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 6-1 9-1 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
Oklahoma St. 5-2 8-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-2 8-2 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
Iowa State 4-3 5-5 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
Texas 4-3 5-5 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
West Virginia 5-2 7-3 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
Kansas St. 3-4 5-5 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
Texas Tech 2-5 5-5 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
Baylor 1-6 1-9 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
Kansas 0-7 1-9 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-1 8-2 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
Penn St. 5-2 8-2 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
Michigan 5-2 8-2 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
Michigan St. 5-2 7-3 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
Indiana 1-6 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
Maryland 2-5 4-6 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
Rutgers 3-4 4-6 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 7-0 10-0 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
Iowa 3-4 6-4 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
Northwestern 5-2 7-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Minnesota 2-5 5-5 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
Purdue 2-5 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Nebraska 3-4 4-6 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
Illinois 0-7 2-8 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 6-0 7-3 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
Marshall 4-2 7-3 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
W. Kentucky 3-3 5-5 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
Middle Tennessee 3-3 5-5 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
Florida Int’l. 4-2 6-3 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
Old Dominion 2-4 4-6 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
Charlotte 1-5 1-9 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-4 5-4 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
N. Texas 6-1 7-3 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
Louisiana Tech 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
Southern Miss. 4-2 6-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
UAB 5-2 7-3 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
Rice 1-5 1-9 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-6 0-10 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-2 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
Army   8-2 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
Massachusetts   3-7 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
BYU   3-8 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-1 8-2 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
Miami (O) 3-3 4-6 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
Akron 4-2 5-5 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
Buffalo 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
Bowling Green 2-4 2-8 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
Kent St. 1-5 2-8 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-1 8-2 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
Western Michigan 4-2 6-4 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
Eastern Michigan 1-5 3-7 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
Central Michigan 4-2 6-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-6 2-8 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 6-0 8-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-3 6-5 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
Wyoming 5-1 7-3 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
Air Force 3-3 4-6 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
New Mexico 1-5 3-7 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
Fresno St. 5-1 7-3 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
Nevada 2-4 2-8 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
U N L V 3-3 4-6 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
Hawaii 1-6 3-7 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
San Jose St. 0-6 1-10 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
             
MWC Averages     92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-2 8-2 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
Stanford 6-2 7-3 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
California 2-5 5-5 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
Oregon St. 0-7 1-9 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 7-1 9-2 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
Arizona 5-2 7-3 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
Arizona St. 4-3 5-5 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
Utah 2-5 5-5 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
U C L A 3-4 5-5 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-1 9-1 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
S. Carolina 5-3 7-3 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
Kentucky 4-3 7-3 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
Missouri 2-4 5-5 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
Florida 3-5 3-6 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
Vanderbilt 0-6 4-6 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
Tennessee 0-6 4-6 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 10-0 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
Auburn 6-1 8-2 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
L S U 4-2 7-3 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
Mississippi St. 3-3 7-3 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
Texas A&M 3-3 6-4 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
Ole Miss 2-4 5-5 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
Arkansas 1-5 4-6 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-1 5-3 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
N. Mexico St. 2-3 4-5 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
S. Alabama 3-3 4-6 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-5 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-5 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
Idaho 2-3 3-6 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
Georgia Southern 0-5 0-9 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
Texas St. 1-5 2-8 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
Coastal Carolina 0-6 1-9 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.7 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.5
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
7 AAC 97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.7 84.5 83.8 84.0

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Navy Georgia St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Western Mich.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Boston College] Southern Miss.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Temple [Florida Int’l.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Western Ky.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Miami (O) Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Colorado] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Virginia [Central Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 [Fresno St.] Oregon
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Wake Forest [Middle Tenn.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Georgia Tech Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Northern Illinois] Arizona
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas LSU
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 South Florida Florida St.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan St. Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 West Virginia Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville UCLA
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 North Carolina St. Missouri
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Kansas St. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC TCU
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Ohio St. Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Oklahoma Miami (Fla.)
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Who Should Be National Coach of the Year
If Alabama wins the National Championship this year with a perfect 15-0 record, Nick Saban would be the odds-on favorite to win the National Coach of the Year Award. Playing in a very tough SEC Western Division and adding a win over Georgia, plus two in the Playoffs, it would be hard to argue with anybody that voted Saban number one on their ballots.

However, we here at the PiRate Ratings not only do not think Saban should be the National Coach of the Year, he shouldn’t be the State of Alabama Coach of the Year!
This is not a knock against Saban. In our opinion, Saban’s coaching job this year would be the same as Swen Nater as the second best center in the nation in 1972 and 1973 when he was at UCLA (unfortunately, number one was Bill Walton).

If you are over the age of 50 like so many of our readers, you remember SMU receiving the death penalty, not being allowed to play for two years. When the Mustangs returned to college football, they suffered through years and years of very weak football seasons. It was a new century before the Mustangs finally returned to a bowl.

What would you have thought of any coach that not only could have quickly taken SMU to a bowl in its first year back in football? That SMU coach that helped bring SMU back to football was none other than the greatest offensive tackle in NFL history–Forrest Gregg.  The job was too hard, and SMU won just four games in its first three years back in business.

A similar instance has presented the college football nation with another team not playing football for two seasons before returning this year. UAB dropped football for financial reasons after finishing 6-6 in 2014. The Blazers were expected to struggle mightily in their first season back in FBS football, being lucky to win a game this year. Except, nobody told Coach Bill Clark that his team was not supposed to come within one game of the CUSA West Division title and become bowl eligible, but that is exactly where UAB sits through 10 games of the season. The Blazers are 7-3, and Clark deserves serious consideration for NCOY; nobody has done a better job than Clark.
The Conference Races & Bowl Eligibility
Around the first of February every year, college basketball fans start looking in earnest at which teams appear to be in the NCAA Tournament, which are on “the bubble,” and which appear to be headed to a lesser tournament or none at all. In the Playoff era of FBS football, somebody should start something similar. So, here is a list for each conference.

Group of 5 Conferences
American Athletic Conference
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Central Florida, South Florida, Memphis, Houston, Navy, SMU
5-Win Teams: 1 — Temple
4-Win Teams: 1 — Tulane
Bowl Tie-ins: 7
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 (but the champion is likely to receive the NY6 Bowl bid, leaving this league one team short in its needs to fill its bowl tie-ins.

Central Florida leads the race for the one New Year’s Six Bowl slot that goes to a Group of 5 team, but Memphis has just one loss (to UCF). Should the Tigers beat UCF in a rematch at the AAC Championship Game, then Memphis could take the NY6 Bowl. USF is still in contention for this spot as well.

Temple needs one more win. The Owls host Central Florida this week in what should be a trap game for the Knights. TU closes the year out with a road game against Tulsa, so Temple has a decent chance to pick up win number six in the finale.

Tulane must upset Houston and SMU to become bowl eligible, and we do not see the Green Wave toppling either team.

Conference USA
Bowl Eligible: 6 — Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss.
5-Win Teams: 3 — Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, UTSA
4-Win Teams: 2 — Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Florida Atlantic has a two-game lead over Marshall and FIU, and Lane Kiffin has said this is the mosr rewarding season he has experienced as a coach. North Texas has already clinched the Western Division.

The three 5-win teams have excellent chances to get to six wins, and this should give thie league multiple at-large bowl teams. There will be enough open bowls for all nine bowl-eligible teams to receive bids.

Mid-American
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan
5-Win Teams: 1 — Akron
4-Win Teams: 2 — Miami (O), Buffalo
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7 or 8

Akron may or may not beat Ohio this week, but the Zips finish with Kent State, and this should Terry Bowden’s squad to earn their second bowl in three seasons.

Both Miami and Buffalo have okay chances to win their final two games and square their marks at 6-6, but we believe the better prediction would have just one of the pair going 2-0. Miami host Eastern Michigan and closes at Ball State. The Redhawks lost their first six games last year and then won six in a row to earn a bowl bid. They only needed to go 3-0 to repeat the process this year, and they got a good start by upsetting Akron.

Buffalo has to win at Ball State and then upset Ohio in the regular season finale to finish 6-6. If the Bulls and Miami both finish 6-6, it is our opinion that the MAC will fail to place all eight teams in bowls. Seven teams are most likely the maximum that will earn bids from the MAC.

Mountain West
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Boise St., Wyoming, Colorado St., San Diego St., Fresno St.
5-Win Teams: 1 — Utah St.
4-Win Teams: 2 — Air Force, UNLV
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 6

It looks like Boise State and San Diego State will face off in the MWC Championship Game, and the winner will be a formidable foe for a Pac-12 team in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Utah State was not expected to compete for a bowl this year, but the Aggies are one win away from bowl eligibility. Hawaii visits Logan this week, and USU should get that sixth win before finishing at Air Force.

As for the four-win teams, it will be a major surprise if either Air Force or UNLV wins out. The Falcons play at Boise State this week, and that should produce loss number seven. UNLV finishes with road games against New Mexico and Nevada.

Sun Belt
Bowl Eligible: 3 — Troy, Appalachian St., Georgia St.
5-Win Teams: 1 — Arkansas St.
4-Win Teams: New Mexico St., South Alabama, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe
Bowl Tie-ins: 5
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 6

Arkansas St. is 5-3 with three chances to win one more game. The Red Wolves host lowly Texas State this week and should become bowl eligible, before closing with a road game against UL-Monroe and a home game with Troy.

Two of the four 4-win teams should become bowl eligible, but there is not likely to be six openings for this league with five bowl tie-ins.

UL-Lafayette always seems to find its way to the Superdome in the postseason. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in five bowls in their history, all of which were New Orleans Bowls. ULL must finish 2-1 against a slate of New Mexico State, Georgia Southern, and at Appalachian State, and their chances are better than 50-50 of winning twice.

UL-Monroe and South Alabama have very tough roads to close out the year. ULM merely must win at Auburn or at Florida State and then take care of Arkansas State at home in order to finish 6-6. USA should win at Georgia Southern this week, but their finale at New Mexico State looks very difficult.

As for New Mexico State, the Aggies need to go 2-1 against UL-Lafayette, Idaho, and South Alabama. We believe NMSU will get those two wins, but then the league will not lobby for the Aggies to get a bowl bid, as they will be leaving the Sun Belt after this season. This league has spurned teams leaving the conference in the past, most recently Middle Tennessee, when the Blue Raiders left for CUSA.

Independents
Note–Notre Dame will not be included in this section, as they count in the ACC bowl section.

Bowl Eligible: 1 — Army
Army is 8-2, and the Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl.

Power 5 Conferences
Atlantic Coast
Bowl Eligible: 8 — Clemson, North Carolina St., Wake Forest, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), Virginia Tech, Virginia + Notre Dame
5-Win Teams: 2 — Boston College, Georgia Tech
4-Win Teams: 3 — Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburgh
3-Win Team: 1 — Florida St.
Bowl Tie-ins: 9
Likely Bowl Eligible: 10

Miami or Clemson is likely to make the Playoffs.

Clemson and Miami will play in the ACC Championship Game, and the winner stands an excellent chance of making it to the Playoffs. Notre Dame is still alive for a NY6 Bowl, but the slaughter at the hands of Miami has ended the Irish’s chances of making the Playoffs. Notre Dame still has a road game against Stanford, and the home game with Navy is no sure thing, so there is a rather possible chance that the Irish will lose for a third time and be relegated to a non-NY6 Bowl.

Boston College gets a chance to become bowl eligible at the best venue in the Boston area. The Eagles face off against U Conn at Fenway Park. BC finishes with a road game against Syracuse. We believe the Eagles will be bowl bound this year.
5-4 Georgia Tech plays just 11 games thanks to the hurricane. The Yellow Jackets most likely must win at Duke this week, as they finish against Georgia in two weeks.

Syracuse, Duke, and Pittsburgh are all 4-6. We do not believe any of the three will finish 2-0 to become bowl eligible. Syracuse plays at Louisville this week, and the Cardinals should send the Orange to their seventh loss, making the home finale with Boston College inconsequential. Duke has to beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest to get to 6-6, and even though they would be the top APR team at 5-7, we believe there will be 80 bowl eligible teams for the 78 bowls, meaning no 5-7 teams will get a chance to bowl this season. Pitt is staring at 4-8 with games against Virginia Tech and Miami to close out a forgettable 2017 season.

Florida St. is 3-6, and until they hurried to reschedule their hurricane-cancelling game with UL-Monroe, it looked like they would have no chance to get to six wins. The Seminoles will handle Delaware State with ease this week, and then they must beat rival Florida in Gainesville, before the makeup game with UL-Monroe will mean something. There is a good chance the Seminoles will accomplish the feat.

Big 12
Bowl Eligible: 4 — Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, West Virginia
5-Win Teams: 4 — Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, and Texas Tech
4-Win Teams: 0
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7

Oklahoma is heavily favored to win out and earn a Playoff spot. TCU and Oklahoma State could both receive NY6 bowl bids, which would then leave the Big 12 two teams short and allow two at-large teams to fill the last two bowls in the pecking order.

Oklahoma should wrap up a spot in the Big 12 Playoffs with a game against Kansas this week. The other spot is still up for grabs. Oklahoma State, TCU, and West Virginia are tied at 5-2, while Iowa State and Texas are 4-3. Our money is on TCU to win at Texas Tech and at home against Baylor, and the Horned Frogs would hold the tiebreaker over OSU and WVU.

Of the four 5-win teams, one will most definitely fall short, finishing 5-7. Texas Tech and Texas face uphill climbs this week against favored opponents, and the Red Raiders and Longhorns close out in Austin on Black Friday, where the winner will be 6-6.

Big Ten
Bowl Eligible: 7 — Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa
5-Win Teams: 1 — Minnesota
4-Win Teams: 5 — Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska
Bowl Tie-ins: 8
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 7

Wisconsin has a good chance of making the Playoffs, while one other team should earn a NY6 bowl bid. This would leave three Big Ten bowls without a league team.

Wisconsin has clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, while Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite to back into the title game. Michigan could beat the Buckeyes at the Big House in the season-ender, but unless the Wolverines knock off Wisconsin at Camp Randall this week, beating OSU will not get them to the Championship Game.

Minnesota closes with Northwestern in Evanston and Wisconsin in Minneapolis, so it looks like the Gophers may fall to 5-7. As for the five, 4-6 teams, we cannot find a path for any of the quintet to finish 2-0.

Pac-12
Bowl Eligible: 5 — Washington, Washington St., Stanford, USC, Arizona
5-Win Teams: 6 — Oregon, California, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, UCLA
4-Win Teams: 0
Bowl Tie-ins: 6
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Two from among the current Bowl Eligible teams are likely headed to NY6 bowls, so there should be one extra bowl eligible team to be sent elsewhere to an at-large bid.

If Stanford beats Cal this week, then Washington State would win the North Division with a win over Washington, while Stanford would win the division if Washington beat Washington State. If Cal beats Stanford, then the Wash-WSU winner would win the division.

USC has won the South Division title, and the Trojans have improved enough since October, that they should be considered favorites over any of the three North contenders.

Half of the league currently have five wins. We believe that four of the six will get the sixth win. Oregon finishes with Arizona and Oregon State at home, and the Ducks have a great chance to return to a bowl. Either Colorado or Utah is guaranteed to make a bowl, because one will have to win their encounter. The same goes for UCLA and Califirnia. Arizona State plays at Oregon State before hosting Arizona, and the Sun Devils should get win number six.

SEC
Bowl Eligible: 8 — Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina
5-Win Teams: 1 — Missouri (Ole Miss is 5-5 but ineligible)
4-Win Teams: 3 — Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bowl Tie-ins: 9
Likely Bowl Eligibles: 9

Alabama is almost certain to make the Playoffs, while Georgia is likely to earn a NY 6 Bowl Bid. That would leave the SEC two teams short in their bowl obligations.

Alabama only needs to show up to beat Mercer this week, and then the Tide has to finish at Auburn. Auburn can win the West Division by pulling off the big upset over Alabama.

LSU and Mississippi State should both get to nine wins, while South Carolina is an upset away over Clemson from becoming the sixth nine-win team from the league.

Missouri gets to play 0-6 Vandy and 1-5 Arkansas, so the Tigers should be 6-6 if not 7-5.
We do not expect any of the three 4-6 teams to win out and become bowl eligible.

 

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November 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Akron 3.4 2.9 4.0
Buffalo Bowling Green 6.0 7.5 7.6
Western Michigan Kent St. 26.9 24.5 27.6
Ohio U Toledo -6.2 -5.0 -6.7
Central Michigan Eastern Michigan -1.4 -0.4 -1.4
Northern Illinois Ball St. 29.3 27.1 29.4
Appalachian St. Georgia Southern 21.7 19.1 22.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina 8.3 9.0 9.1
Cincinnati Temple -3.0 -1.6 -1.7
Stanford Washington -7.5 -6.1 -8.7
UNLV BYU 1.1 3.0 1.8
Maryland Michigan -11.6 -10.3 -11.2
South Carolina Florida 5.6 5.2 5.6
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech -2.9 -4.7 -4.6
East Carolina Tulane -8.2 -7.2 -8.6
Boston College North Carolina St. -4.0 -3.5 -4.1
Central Florida Connecticut 31.9 31.3 32.9
Syracuse Wake Forest 6.1 5.9 5.5
Penn St. Rutgers 33.0 31.3 34.0
Army Duke -3.3 -2.6 -1.4
Ohio St. Michigan St. 27.2 23.8 25.9
Illinois Indiana -11.6 -10.6 -13.1
Coastal Carolina Troy -22.2 -21.2 -20.8
Charlotte Middle Tennessee -11.2 -10.1 -11.6
Air Force Wyoming -2.0 -0.3 -0.7
Nevada San Jose St. 16.2 17.7 18.4
Baylor Texas Tech -2.2 -0.8 -1.1
Kansas St. West Virginia 3.1 2.6 2.6
Oklahoma TCU 6.6 7.2 6.7
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. -7.4 -6.6 -7.0
Louisville Virginia 13.1 13.0 12.7
Miami (Fla.) Notre Dame 3.1 2.6 1.6
Navy SMU 4.9 5.4 4.6
Utah Washington St. -7.0 -3.8 -6.8
Northwestern Purdue 10.4 9.3 10.2
Ole Miss Louisiana-Lafayette 25.1 22.2 23.6
Minnesota Nebraska 4.0 4.2 4.0
Mississippi St. Alabama -22.3 -17.9 -20.8
Louisiana Tech Florida Atlantic -5.0 -5.3 -5.9
Rice Southern Miss. -9.8 -9.5 -10.0
Colorado USC -9.7 -10.5 -11.7
Wisconsin Iowa 10.0 6.9 8.8
Auburn Georgia 1.0 -1.2 0.8
Missouri Tennessee 5.4 5.1 6.5
Texas A&M New Mexico 22.7 20.9 21.3
UCLA Arizona St. -1.0 -0.5 -1.5
Vanderbilt Kentucky -1.7 -1.5 -1.8
South Alabama Arkansas St. -8.4 -7.0 -10.0
Texas St. Georgia St. -8.3 -6.0 -9.0
North Texas UTEP 15.8 14.6 16.5
Texas Kansas 37.7 34.6 39.5
Marshall Western Kentucky 3.7 5.0 4.7
Florida Int’l. Old Dominion 8.9 6.6 9.9
UTSA UAB 15.0 14.0 14.0
Clemson Florida St. 14.4 12.8 15.3
LSU Arkansas 21.2 19.9 22.5
Arizona Oregon St. 16.3 15.0 16.8
Colorado St. Boise St. -2.2 -1.7 -2.6
Hawaii Fresno St. -6.3 -4.5 -7.0

The PiRate Ratings

Retro Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 Wisconsin
6 Miami (Fla)
7 Oklahoma
8 Penn St.
9 Central Florida
10 Ohio St.
11 Washington
12 TCU
13 USC
14 Auburn
15 Oklahoma St.
16 Michigan St.
17 Virginia Tech
18 Michigan
19 Iowa
20 Mississippi St.
21 Memphis
22 Washington St.
23 Iowa St.
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 Stanford
27 LSU
28 Toledo
29 Northwestern
30 South Florida
31 Boston College
32 Arizona
33 South Carolina
34 Wake Forest
35 West Virginia
36 San Diego St.
37 Arizona St.
38 Georgia Tech
39 Houston
40 Texas
41 Texas A&M
42 SMU
43 Oregon
44 Navy
45 Louisville
46 Florida St.
47 Syracuse
48 Florida Atlantic
49 Utah
50 Virginia
51 Northern Illinois
52 Texas Tech
53 Kentucky
54 Army
55 Troy
56 California
57 Fresno St.
58 Purdue
59 Kansas St.
60 Pittsburgh
61 Nebraska
62 UCLA
63 Marshall
64 Maryland
65 Wyoming
66 Ohio
67 Arkansas St.
68 Florida
69 Colorado
70 Missouri
71 Duke
72 Minnesota
73 Indiana
74 Tennessee
75 Colorado St.
76 Ole Miss
77 Florida Int’l.
78 North Texas
79 Western Michigan
80 Akron
81 Rutgers
82 Arkansas
83 Vanderbilt
84 Utah St.
85 Temple
86 Central Michigan
87 UAB
88 Air Force
89 Eastern Michigan
90 Tulane
91 UTSA
92 Southern Miss.
93 Cincinnati
94 Appalachian St.
95 Georgia St.
96 Louisiana Tech
97 UNLV
98 Middle Tennessee
99 North Carolina
100 Western Kentucky
101 Buffalo
102 Tulsa
103 Miami (O)
104 New Mexico St.
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 New Mexico
109 UL-Monroe
110 East Carolina
111 Oregon St.
112 South Alabama
113 UL-Lafayette
114 Bowling Green
115 BYU
116 Idaho
117 Nevada
118 Old Dominion
119 Massachusetts
120 Kent St.
121 Hawaii
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 San Jose St.
129 UTEP
130 Georgia Southern

PiRate Predictive Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.2 134.2 136.9 136.4
2 Ohio St. 130.9 128.5 131.0 130.1
3 Georgia 128.4 128.5 128.7 128.5
4 Washington 128.9 126.1 129.3 128.1
5 Clemson 127.8 125.3 127.3 126.8
6 Penn St. 127.1 125.3 127.8 126.7
7 Auburn 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
8 Oklahoma 123.5 122.3 124.1 123.3
9 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
10 Notre Dame 122.2 120.8 122.9 121.9
11 Miami 122.3 120.4 121.5 121.4
12 Virginia Tech 120.6 119.9 120.8 120.4
13 Wisconsin 121.6 118.8 120.1 120.2
14 T C U 119.9 118.1 120.4 119.4
15 U S C 119.2 118.4 119.1 118.9
16 Stanford 118.4 117.0 117.6 117.7
17 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
18 L S U 117.0 114.9 117.6 116.5
19 Florida St. 116.4 115.5 114.9 115.6
20 Texas 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9
21 Iowa 114.6 114.9 114.3 114.6
22 Michigan 114.3 114.3 113.4 114.0
23 Washington St. 114.8 112.5 114.4 113.9
24 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.0 113.8
25 Georgia Tech 114.7 112.2 113.2 113.4
26 Mississippi St. 112.9 113.3 113.1 113.1
27 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
28 Louisville 112.1 111.2 111.9 111.7
29 Syracuse 112.2 110.5 111.6 111.4
30 West Virginia 110.3 110.8 110.7 110.6
31 Kansas St. 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
32 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 South Florida 109.8 108.7 110.4 109.6
35 Wake Forest 109.2 107.5 109.1 108.6
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Memphis 108.5 107.8 109.1 108.4
38 Arizona 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
39 Michigan St. 106.7 107.7 108.1 107.5
40 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
41 Pittsburgh 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4
42 Texas A&M 107.1 105.1 106.3 106.2
43 Arizona St. 106.6 105.6 106.3 106.2
44 Florida 106.5 105.9 105.7 106.0
45 Kentucky 106.7 105.7 105.6 106.0
46 Duke 106.6 105.9 105.3 105.9
47 Oregon 106.5 104.7 105.6 105.6
48 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.4 105.3
49 Missouri 106.0 104.1 105.3 105.1
50 Utah 104.8 105.7 104.6 105.0
51 Toledo 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
52 Ole Miss 105.0 103.5 103.6 104.0
53 Texas Tech 103.9 103.8 103.1 103.6
54 California 104.5 102.4 102.6 103.2
55 Indiana 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.2
56 Houston 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.0
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 Tennessee 103.6 102.0 101.8 102.5
59 Minnesota 102.4 103.3 101.6 102.4
60 U C L A 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.2
61 San Diego St. 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.3 101.8
63 Virginia 102.0 101.2 102.1 101.8
64 Colo. State 101.8 100.8 101.6 101.4
65 Nebraska 101.3 102.1 100.6 101.3
66 Navy 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.7
67 N. Carolina 101.2 100.3 100.1 100.5
68 Army 100.3 100.3 100.9 100.5
69 Maryland 99.7 101.0 99.2 99.9
70 Baylor 98.7 100.1 99.0 99.3
71 SMU 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.7
72 Wyoming 99.3 98.0 98.3 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.0 98.0 98.3
74 Western Michigan 97.7 96.7 98.6 97.7
75 Eastern Michigan 97.2 96.9 97.8 97.3
76 Rutgers 97.1 97.0 96.8 97.0
77 Florida Atlantic 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
78 Arkansas St. 95.8 96.7 97.3 96.6
79 Ohio U 95.5 96.6 96.6 96.2
80 Troy 95.1 95.3 94.5 95.0
81 Oregon St. 95.5 95.2 94.1 94.9
82 Fresno St. 94.7 93.9 95.2 94.6
83 Air Force 94.2 94.7 94.6 94.5
84 Tulsa 94.6 94.4 94.1 94.4
85 Northern Illinois 94.1 94.0 95.0 94.3
86 Temple 94.0 94.4 94.1 94.2
87 Central Michigan 93.3 94.0 93.9 93.7
88 Tulane 92.9 93.3 93.1 93.1
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
91 U T S A 91.0 93.1 92.0 92.0
92 Utah St. 92.3 91.5 91.9 91.9
93 W. Kentucky 90.9 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Massachusetts 90.2 89.4 90.5 90.0
95 Cincinnati 88.5 90.2 89.9 89.5
96 Miami (O) 88.1 90.2 89.3 89.2
97 BYU 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.9
98 Illinois 88.9 90.0 87.8 88.9
99 Louisiana Tech 87.6 89.4 88.2 88.4
100 Akron 87.3 89.7 87.8 88.3
101 Florida Int’l. 87.7 87.9 88.8 88.2
102 U N L V 87.3 88.9 87.5 87.9
103 Nevada 86.2 88.0 87.5 87.2
104 New Mexico 86.9 86.7 87.5 87.0
105 N. Mexico St. 87.4 85.8 87.7 87.0
106 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.4 86.8
107 Middle Tennessee 86.1 87.3 86.9 86.8
108 Hawaii 84.9 85.9 84.7 85.2
109 S. Alabama 84.4 86.7 84.3 85.1
110 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
111 Connecticut 84.0 86.0 84.1 84.7
112 N. Texas 83.9 85.5 84.6 84.7
113 Georgia St. 84.1 83.9 84.1 84.1
114 UL-Lafayette 82.4 83.8 82.5 82.9
115 Old Dominion 81.8 84.4 81.9 82.7
116 East Carolina 82.2 83.7 82.0 82.6
117 Bowling Green 81.9 82.8 82.3 82.3
118 UL-Monroe 82.3 83.1 81.5 82.3
119 Idaho 80.9 82.0 81.7 81.5
120 UAB 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.7
121 Kansas 79.9 83.3 78.6 80.6
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.3 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.3 75.4 72.6 73.8
125 Charlotte 72.4 74.7 72.7 73.3
126 San Jose St. 73.0 73.3 72.1 72.8
127 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
128 U T E P 71.0 73.9 71.1 72.0
129 Coastal Carolina 70.8 72.2 71.7 71.6
130 Ball St. 67.8 69.8 68.6 68.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 5-0 8-0 112.9 114.3 114.0 113.8
South Florida 5-1 8-1 109.8 108.7 110.4 109.6
Temple 2-3 4-5 94.0 94.4 94.1 94.2
Cincinnati 1-4 3-6 88.5 90.2 89.9 89.5
Connecticut 2-4 3-6 84.0 86.0 84.1 84.7
East Carolina 1-4 2-7 82.2 83.7 82.0 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.5 107.8 109.1 108.4
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.1 102.7 103.3 103.0
Navy 3-3 5-3 100.4 101.2 100.5 100.7
SMU 3-2 6-3 98.4 98.8 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.6 94.4 94.1 94.4
Tulane 1-4 3-6 92.9 93.3 93.1 93.1
             
AAC Averages     97.4 97.9 97.8 97.7
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 6-1 8-1 127.8 125.3 127.3 126.8
N. Carolina St. 4-1 6-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-4 3-5 116.4 115.5 114.9 115.6
Louisville 2-4 5-4 112.1 111.2 111.9 111.7
Syracuse 2-3 4-5 112.2 110.5 111.6 111.4
Boston College 3-3 5-4 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Wake Forest 2-3 5-4 109.2 107.5 109.1 108.6
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 8-0 122.3 120.4 121.5 121.4
Virginia Tech 3-2 7-2 120.6 119.9 120.8 120.4
Georgia Tech 3-3 4-4 114.7 112.2 113.2 113.4
Pittsburgh 2-3 4-5 106.5 106.3 106.3 106.4
Duke 1-5 4-5 106.6 105.9 105.3 105.9
Virginia 3-2 6-3 102.0 101.2 102.1 101.8
N. Carolina 0-6 1-8 101.2 100.3 100.1 100.5
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 5-1 8-1 123.5 122.3 124.1 123.3
Oklahoma St. 4-2 7-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-1 8-1 119.9 118.1 120.4 119.4
Texas 3-3 4-5 114.6 114.9 115.1 114.9
Iowa State 4-2 5-4 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
West Virginia 4-2 6-3 110.3 110.8 110.7 110.6
Kansas St. 3-3 5-4 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
Texas Tech 1-5 4-5 103.9 103.8 103.1 103.6
Baylor 1-5 1-8 98.7 100.1 99.0 99.3
Kansas 0-6 1-8 79.9 83.3 78.6 80.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-1 7-2 130.9 128.5 131.0 130.1
Penn St. 4-2 7-2 127.1 125.3 127.8 126.7
Michigan 4-2 7-2 114.3 114.3 113.4 114.0
Michigan St. 5-1 7-2 106.7 107.7 108.1 107.5
Indiana 0-6 3-6 103.0 103.1 103.4 103.2
Maryland 2-4 4-5 99.7 101.0 99.2 99.9
Rutgers 3-3 4-5 97.1 97.0 96.8 97.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 6-0 9-0 121.6 118.8 120.1 120.2
Iowa 3-3 6-3 114.6 114.9 114.3 114.6
Northwestern 4-2 6-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Purdue 2-4 4-5 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Minnesota 1-5 4-5 102.4 103.3 101.6 102.4
Nebraska 3-3 4-5 101.3 102.1 100.6 101.3
Illinois 0-6 2-7 88.9 90.0 87.8 88.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 5-0 6-3 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
Marshall 3-2 6-3 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
W. Kentucky 3-2 5-4 90.9 90.9 91.7 91.2
Florida Int’l. 4-1 6-2 87.7 87.9 88.8 88.2
Middle Tennessee 2-3 4-5 86.1 87.3 86.9 86.8
Old Dominion 1-4 3-6 81.8 84.4 81.9 82.7
Charlotte 1-4 1-8 72.4 74.7 72.7 73.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-3 5-3 91.0 93.1 92.0 92.0
Louisiana Tech 2-3 4-5 87.6 89.4 88.2 88.4
Southern Miss. 3-2 5-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
N. Texas 5-1 6-3 83.9 85.5 84.6 84.7
UAB 4-2 6-3 79.0 82.0 81.0 80.7
Rice 1-4 1-8 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-5 0-9 71.0 73.9 71.1 72.0
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-1 122.2 120.8 122.9 121.9
Army   7-2 100.3 100.3 100.9 100.5
Massachusetts   2-7 90.2 89.4 90.5 90.0
BYU   2-8 89.2 89.0 88.7 88.9
             
Indep. Averages     100.5 99.9 100.7 100.4
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 4-1 7-2 95.5 96.6 96.6 96.2
Miami (O) 2-3 3-6 88.1 90.2 89.3 89.2
Akron 4-1 5-4 87.3 89.7 87.8 88.3
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 85.4 87.7 87.4 86.8
Bowling Green 2-3 2-7 81.9 82.8 82.3 82.3
Kent St. 1-4 2-7 73.7 75.3 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-0 8-1 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
Western Michigan 3-2 5-4 97.7 96.7 98.6 97.7
Eastern Michigan 1-4 3-6 97.2 96.9 97.8 97.3
Northern Illinois 4-1 6-3 94.1 94.0 95.0 94.3
Central Michigan 3-2 5-4 93.3 94.0 93.9 93.7
Ball St. 0-5 2-7 67.8 69.8 68.6 68.7
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 5-0 7-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-2 6-4 101.8 100.8 101.6 101.4
Wyoming 4-1 6-3 99.3 98.0 98.3 98.5
Air Force 3-2 4-5 94.2 94.7 94.6 94.5
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.3 91.5 91.9 91.9
New Mexico 1-5 3-6 86.9 86.7 87.5 87.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 101.7 101.6 102.6 102.0
Fresno St. 4-1 6-3 94.7 93.9 95.2 94.6
U N L V 3-3 4-5 87.3 88.9 87.5 87.9
Nevada 1-4 1-8 86.2 88.0 87.5 87.2
Hawaii 1-5 3-6 84.9 85.9 84.7 85.2
San Jose St. 0-5 1-9 73.0 73.3 72.1 72.8
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.4 92.6 92.5
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-1 8-1 128.9 126.1 129.3 128.1
Stanford 5-2 6-3 118.4 117.0 117.6 117.7
Washington St. 4-2 7-2 114.8 112.5 114.4 113.9
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.5 104.7 105.6 105.6
California 2-5 5-5 104.5 102.4 102.6 103.2
Oregon St. 0-6 1-8 95.5 95.2 94.1 94.9
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 6-1 8-2 119.2 118.4 119.1 118.9
Arizona 4-2 6-3 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
Arizona St. 4-2 5-4 106.6 105.6 106.3 106.2
Colorado 2-5 5-5 106.5 105.0 104.4 105.3
Utah 2-4 5-4 104.8 105.7 104.6 105.0
U C L A 2-4 4-5 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.2
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-0 9-0 128.4 128.5 128.7 128.5
S. Carolina 4-3 6-3 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
Florida 3-4 3-5 106.5 105.9 105.7 106.0
Kentucky 3-3 6-3 106.7 105.7 105.6 106.0
Missouri 1-4 4-5 106.0 104.1 105.3 105.1
Tennessee 0-5 4-5 103.6 102.0 101.8 102.5
Vanderbilt 0-5 4-5 102.5 101.7 101.3 101.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 6-0 9-0 138.2 134.2 136.9 136.4
Auburn 5-1 7-2 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
L S U 3-2 6-3 117.0 114.9 117.6 116.5
Mississippi St. 3-2 7-2 112.9 113.3 113.1 113.1
Texas A&M 3-3 5-4 107.1 105.1 106.3 106.2
Ole Miss 2-4 4-5 105.0 103.5 103.6 104.0
Arkansas 1-4 4-5 98.8 98.0 98.0 98.3
             
SEC Averages     112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-2 95.8 96.7 97.3 96.6
Troy 4-1 7-2 95.1 95.3 94.5 95.0
Appalachian St. 4-1 5-4 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
N. Mexico St. 2-3 4-5 87.4 85.8 87.7 87.0
S. Alabama 2-3 3-6 84.4 86.7 84.3 85.1
Georgia St. 4-1 5-3 84.1 83.9 84.1 84.1
UL-Lafayette 3-2 4-4 82.4 83.8 82.5 82.9
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-5 82.3 83.1 81.5 82.3
Idaho 2-3 3-6 80.9 82.0 81.7 81.5
Georgia Southern 0-4 0-8 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
Texas St. 1-4 2-7 73.3 75.4 72.6 73.8
Coastal Carolina 0-5 1-8 70.8 72.2 71.7 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.7 84.4 83.7 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.4 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 100.5 99.9 100.7 100.4
7 AAC 97.4 97.9 97.8 97.7
8 MWC 92.4 92.4 92.6 92.5
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.7 84.4 83.7 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Int’l. UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 San Diego St. Utah
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Wyoming
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Fla. Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Georgia St.] Southern Miss.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Cincinnati [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [California]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Boise St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UNLV] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Western Ky.] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Stanford
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Duke [Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Fresno St.] Washington St.
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy [Miami (O)]
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Arizona St.
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 NC State Auburn
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Colorado St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville LSU
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC TCU
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Ohio St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Clemson Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Georgia Notre Dame
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Oklahoma
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

A Great Weekend Ahead

After looking at the schedule for this week, the folks at the sports networks could call this one, “moving week.” There are numerous games where teams in contention for a playoff spot are facing tough, sometimes trap games. There are a host of games where the winner will stay in bowl contention, while fans of the loser can start thinking about basketball season, which begins this Friday.

Then, there is another interesting phenomenon. There are a host of teams that have six losses and must win out to get to 6-6 and get into a bowl. Most will lose again to fall out of the bowl picture, but until they get to seven losses, these teams will bring their A-games to the field. What that means is that a 3-6 team that is a 15-point underdog to a 6-3 team that is already bowl eligible but has no chance to win a division or conference might be ready to play its best game of the year and maybe pull off the upset. Even if they lose to go to 3-7, they might make it a close game and lose by single digits.

Here’s a look at the interesting games.
Game Involving Playoff Contenders Against Each Other
Notre Dame at Miami (Fla.)
The winner of this game takes a major step forward toward earning one of the magic four spots in the playoffs. The Irish have a home game with Notre Dame and a road game against Stanford remaining, while the Hurricanes have a home game with Virginia, and a road game against Pittsburgh (as well as needing to win the ACC Championship Game).

Games Important In Deciding Conference or Division Winner
Akron at Miami (O) & Toledo at Ohio U

Akron and Ohio are currently tied for the MAC East lead at 4-1. Miami (O) has 6 losses and must win out to become bowl eligible, while Toledo is still in contention for a New Year’s 6 Bowl if the Rockets win out and get help from other teams beating UCF, USF, and Memphis.

Washington at Stanford

Washington currently leads Stanford by a half game and Washington St. by a full game in the Pac-12 North.

Michigan St. at Ohio St.

Both teams are 5-1 in the Big Ten East and most likely out of playoff contention. The winner hasn’t wrapped up the division yet, as Michigan and Penn State are both one game back at 4-2.

TCU at Oklahoma
Both teams are 5-1 and tied for first in the Big 12. The winner almost assuredly makes the Big 12 Championship Game, while the loser will have to fight it out with Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. for the second spot.

Iowa St. at Oklahoma St.
Both teams are 4-2, and the winner stays in contention for second place, which in this league gets you into the Championship Game (WVU is also 4-2).

Potential Trap Games For Playoff Contenders
Alabama at Mississippi St.
Georgia at Auburn
The nation’s top two teams have trap games this week. Alabama had a tough home game with LSU and lost several key defensive players to injury. Plus, in the past five years, the teams that have upset the Crimson Tide have had top notch dual threat quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat quarterback.

Georgia beat South Carolina, and the Bulldogs were in control of the game with not much doubt of losing, but Coach Kirby Smart did not get the opportunity to empty his bench and rest his regulars. Now, the Bulldogs play at Auburn, where the Tigers are still in contention in the SEC West, but only if they beat Georgia.

Must Win Out To Stay In Bowl Contention
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan has six losses and must win out to become bowl eligible. The Eagles have winnable games with Miami (O) and Bowling Green remaining on their schedule, a CMU (5-4) loss could put the Chippewas in Jeopardy of getting to six wins.

Michigan at Maryland
Maryland is now 4-5 after losing to Rutgers, and this looks like loss number six. With remaining games against Michigan State in East Lansing and Penn State at home, the Terrapins have little chance of going 2-1 and getting to 6-6, but they aren’t eliminated yet. Michigan can still win the East Division, but they Wolverines must win out, including games against Wisconsin and Ohio St.

Florida at South Carolina
Florida has just five losses, but the Gators only play 11 games due to the hurricane earlier this year. Interim coach Randy Shannon fared little better than Jim McElwain, losing big to Missouri, so the chances of Florida winning out against South Carolina, UAB, and Florida St. are close to nil. Even the UAB game might be tough to win.

Indiana at Illinois
Indiana had a lot of near misses this year. The Hoosiers have some talented players, but their depth is not up to par with the teams ahead in the Big Ten East. Indiana sits at 3-6 and must win out against Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue. It’s possible, but the way the Boilermakers are playing, we believe Purdue will get revenge for their near miss last year.

Arkansas St. at South Alabama
South Alabama is 3-6 needs a big upset over 4-0/5-2 Arkansas St. and then must win on the road against winless Georgia Southern and a New Mexico St. team that most likely would also be playing for bowl contention. Coach Joey Jones has taken the Jaguars to multiple bowls in the past, but this year is looking bleak.

Florida St. at Clemson
Florida St. is in the same boat as rival Florida. The Seminoles have had their season turned upside down, losing a game to the hurricane as well as a quarterback very early in the season. The Seminoles must pull the playoff-destroying upset of Clemson to have a chance to make the season-ender with Florida meaningful. We will give FSU the win over Delaware St. on November 18.
Late Note–FSU may be able to reschedule their cancelled game with Louisiana-Monroe at the end of the regular season, so the Seminoles could still possibly get to 6-6 with wins over Delaware St., Florida, and UL-Monroe.

Probable Bowl Eliminator Games
Temple at Cincinnati
Temple is 4-5, while Cincinnati is 3-6. Obviously, the Bearcats must win out (East Carolina and UConn after TU). Temple was not really in contention for a bowl until the Owls thumped Navy. With Central Florida to follow this game, if TU loses to fall to 4-6, you can almost completely toss the Owls out of the bowl picture. But if TU wins this game to square their record at 5-5, then the Owls would have a chance to finish 6-6 by defeating Tulsa.

Wake Forest at Syracuse
Wake Forest is 5-4 and Syracuse is 4-5. The loser of this game technically can still make a bowl, but scheduling will make it very difficult. If the Demon Deacons win this game, they are bowl eligible, while a Syracuse win would mean the Orangemen would still have to beat either Louisville or Boston College.

Nebraska at Minnesota
Truth be told, we do not believe the winner of this game will win another game this year, so the 5-5 victor will most likely fall to 5-7. Nebraska must still play Penn St. and Iowa, while Minnesota has Northwestern and Wisconsin remaining.

Tennessee at Missouri
These two 4-5 teams are going in opposite directions. Missouri was expected to go 0-8 in the conference, while Tennessee was expected to compete for a division flag this year. Instead, the Tigers are two wins away from sneaking into a bowl with three winnable games left on their schedule. We feel Mizzou will win at least two if not all three and earn a bowl trip, while Tennessee will have a hard time getting their fifth win.

Can Get Into Bowl Contention With Win
BYU at UNLV
UNLV was not in the bowl picture until just two weeks ago, but now the Rebels have won consecutive games to improve to 4-5. The Rebels absolutely must win this game to get to 5-5 before finishing with road games against New Mexico and Nevada. At 5-5, they should be able to pick up one more win.

In Jeopardy of Missing Bowl With Loss
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is another team relegated to playing 11 games due to the hurricane. At 4-4, the Yellow Jackets need to finish 2-1 and will play at Duke before hosting Georgia. It’s not likely to happen for Paul Johnson this year.

Texas Tech at Baylor
Texas Tech has fallen to 4-5 and must finish 2-1 with closing games with TCU and Texas. Baylor finally won a game last week against lowly Kansas, but sometimes when a team opens the year with many losses before winning their first game, the next game turns out to be the best one they play. TTU needs to be prepared for an ambush in Waco this week. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s seat is simmering hot, and a loss in this game most likely sends him into unemployment. Even a win in this one might just delay the firing by a few weeks.

USC at Colorado
Colorado is 5-5 with a road game at Utah to follow this one. The Buffalos may have a better chance of upsetting the Trojans in Boulder than winning in SLC.

Arizona St. at UCLA
UCLA is 4-5 and has the combination of key injuries and team dissension. Coach Jim Mora, Jr. is more than likely not going to return as coach, especially with Chip Kelly available and with a supposed desire to coach on the West Coast. The Bruins have remaining games with USC and Cal, and it doesn’t look promising that the sons of Westwood will win two of these three.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 4-5 and must win two of three with games against Missouri and Tennessee following this one. The Missouri game now appears to be quite difficult, while Kentucky is playing for one of the top second tier bowls like the Outback and Taxslayer. Vanderbilt’s defense may have a hard time holding the Wildcats under 30 points and the Tigers under 40, so it could be 5-7 or 4-8 for the Commodores, unless they pull off the upset in this one.

Arkansas at LSU
Arkansas is in the same boat with Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri (all 4-5). The Razorbacks narrowly defeated one of the nation’s weakest FBS team in Coastal Carolina, so expecting Arky to win two of their final three (Mississippi St. & Missouri) is quite a stretch. The chance that Coach Bret Bielema will return in Fayetteville is a much larger stretch.

 

 

October 30, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 31-November 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Kent St. Bowling Green 0.4 1.0 0.1
Ohio U Miami (O) 8.3 7.5 8.1
Western Michigan Central Michigan 10.7 8.6 11.4
Toledo Northern Illinois 12.7 12.9 13.5
Eastern Michigan Ball St. 29.2 26.7 28.6
Temple Navy -6.4 -6.7 -6.7
Troy Idaho 18.6 17.5 17.5
Florida Atlantic Marshall 7.1 7.8 6.9
Tulsa Memphis -7.0 -6.4 -7.9
Utah UCLA -0.9 1.1 -0.7
Kansas Baylor -12.3 -10.8 -13.3
North Carolina St. Clemson -7.7 -5.8 -7.1
Purdue Illinois 16.3 15.4 17.6
Kentucky Ole Miss 6.3 6.4 7.0
Florida St. Syracuse 7.6 8.4 6.8
Nebraska Northwestern -6.4 -4.5 -7.3
Iowa Ohio St. -22.9 -20.2 -23.2
West Virginia Iowa St. -0.1 0.6 -1.2
Miami (Fla.) Virginia Tech 1.1 -0.1 0.1
Rutgers Maryland -3.1 -4.5 -3.2
Virginia Georgia Tech -13.3 -11.4 -11.9
Boise St. Nevada 23.4 19.7 22.0
Arizona St. Colorado 0.7 1.7 2.5
Texas St. New Mexico St. -11.9 -8.1 -12.8
Georgia Southern Georgia St. -7.4 -5.6 -8.0
Louisiana-Monroe Appalachian St. -11.8 -9.2 -12.5
Old Dominion Charlotte 12.5 12.8 12.3
Tennessee Southern Miss. 23.3 20.4 21.0
Texas A&M Auburn -16.0 -15.9 -16.8
Air Force Army 1.4 1.6 1.3
Indiana Wisconsin -13.0 -10.0 -11.1
Tulane Cincinnati 9.7 7.9 8.8
Georgia South Carolina 22.7 23.8 24.0
Mississippi St. Massachusetts 28.5 29.5 28.6
SMU Central Florida -11.9 -12.9 -13.0
Vanderbilt Western Kentucky 13.4 12.6 11.2
Texas Tech Kansas St. -3.2 -3.2 -4.0
TCU Texas 5.3 3.1 5.0
Louisiana Tech North Texas 8.5 8.4 8.7
Washington Oregon 22.6 21.7 24.0
Arkansas Coastal Carolina 35.4 33.4 33.8
Michigan Minnesota 12.1 11.4 11.8
Oklahoma St. Oklahoma  4.7 4.6 5.1
Notre Dame Wake Forest 16.5 16.4 17.6
UAB Rice 3.2 5.4 4.9
South Alabama Louisiana-Lafayette 7.7 8.5 7.6
New Mexico Utah St. -1.6 -1.1 -0.7
Fresno St. BYU 8.8 7.9 9.9
UNLV Hawaii 5.7 6.3 6.1
Wyoming Colorado St. -0.9 -1.2 -1.9
Florida Int’l. UTSA -3.4 -5.2 -3.7
Middle Tennessee UTEP 15.3 13.7 15.7
Missouri Florida -6.5 -7.8 -6.4
Alabama LSU 25.8 23.5 24.1
Michigan St. Penn St. -22.5 -18.9 -22.2
San Jose St. San Diego St. -19.3 -19.3 -20.7
California Oregon St. 11.8 10.0 11.3
Washington St. Stanford -1.4 -2.3 -1.4
USC Arizona 12.9 13.8 13.6
Connecticut South Florida -23.2 -19.9 -24.1
Houston East Carolina 23.7 21.7 24.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

“Retro”

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 Ohio St.
6 Penn St.
7 Wisconsin
8 Central Florida
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma
13 TCU
14 Virginia Tech
15 USC
16 Iowa St.
17 Mississippi St.
18 Auburn
19 Michigan
20 Stanford
21 North Carolina St.
22 Memphis
23 Michigan St.
24 LSU
25 Washington St.
26 Boise St.
27 Iowa
28 Toledo
29 Arizona
30 South Florida
31 Northwestern
32 South Carolina
33 Georgia Tech
34 Wake Forest
35 Navy
36 Boston College
37 San Diego St.
38 West Virginia
39 Texas A&M
40 Texas
41 Oregon
42 Houston
43 Kentucky
44 UCLA
45 Arizona St.
46 SMU
47 Syracuse
48 Texas Tech
49 Louisville
50 Northern Illinois
51 Maryland
52 Troy
53 Florida
54 Nebraska
55 Florida Atlantic
56 Florida St.
57 Fresno St.
58 Pittsburgh
59 Colorado
60 Marshall
61 California
62 Western Michigan
63 Purdue
64 Colorado St.
65 Army
66 Indiana
67 Utah
68 Kansas St.
69 Minnesota
70 Arkansas St.
71 Wyoming
72 Air Force
73 Virginia
74 Ohio
75 Tennessee
76 Arkansas
77 Duke
78 Akron
79 North Texas
80 Florida Int’l.
81 Missouri
82 Ole Miss
83 Vanderbilt
84 UTSA
85 Appalachian St.
86 Tulane
87 Rutgers
88 Louisiana Tech
89 Southern Miss.
90 Utah St.
91 UAB
92 Georgia St.
93 Central Michigan
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Western Kentucky
96 Cincinnati
97 Tulsa
98 Temple
99 UNLV
100 North Carolina
101 Buffalo
102 Miami (O)
103 Middle Tennessee
104 New Mexico
105 New Mexico St.
106 Illinois
107 South Alabama
108 Connecticut
109 Oregon St.
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 BYU
113 Baylor
114 Hawaii
115 UL-Monroe
116 Idaho
117 Massachusetts
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Old Dominion
120 Kent St.
121 Bowling Green
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 San Jose St.
129 UTEP
130 Georgia Southern

Predictive

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 134.8 137.8 137.2
2 Ohio St. 135.7 133.3 135.8 134.9
3 Penn St. 129.8 127.6 130.7 129.4
4 Georgia 128.6 128.7 129.0 128.8
5 Washington 127.4 124.7 127.8 126.6
6 Clemson 127.6 125.0 127.1 126.6
7 Auburn 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
8 Oklahoma St. 124.4 123.3 125.2 124.3
9 Notre Dame 122.4 120.9 123.3 122.2
10 Virginia Tech 122.3 121.6 122.5 122.1
11 Oklahoma 121.7 120.7 122.1 121.5
12 Miami 120.4 118.5 119.6 119.5
13 Wisconsin 120.3 117.4 118.8 118.9
14 U S C 118.7 117.9 118.6 118.4
15 T C U 118.7 116.8 119.0 118.1
16 Stanford 118.8 117.4 118.2 118.1
17 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.2 116.9 116.7
18 Texas 115.8 116.2 116.5 116.2
19 Florida St. 116.6 115.7 115.1 115.8
20 L S U 116.2 114.3 116.7 115.7
21 Georgia Tech 116.4 114.0 115.2 115.2
22 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.6 114.6 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.1 114.5 114.4 114.0
24 Washington St. 114.4 112.1 113.8 113.4
25 Iowa State 112.9 112.8 114.2 113.3
26 Michigan 112.8 112.9 111.8 112.5
27 Louisville 111.8 110.9 111.6 111.4
28 Syracuse 112.0 110.3 111.4 111.2
29 Florida 111.0 110.4 110.2 110.5
30 Kansas St. 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
31 Northwestern 110.6 109.4 110.6 110.2
32 West Virginia 109.8 110.4 110.0 110.1
33 South Florida 110.0 108.8 110.8 109.9
34 Iowa 109.8 110.1 109.5 109.8
35 Boston College 109.6 109.3 109.6 109.5
36 Wake Forest 109.0 107.4 108.7 108.3
37 Arizona 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
38 S. Carolina 108.4 107.4 107.5 107.8
39 Oregon 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
40 Kentucky 107.5 106.3 106.6 106.8
41 Texas A&M 107.4 105.4 106.6 106.5
42 Memphis 106.5 105.9 107.0 106.4
43 Colorado 107.7 106.0 105.6 106.4
44 Boise St. 106.8 105.1 106.8 106.2
45 Pittsburgh 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.1
46 Duke 106.3 105.6 105.0 105.6
47 U C L A 106.0 105.2 105.4 105.5
48 Michigan St. 104.3 105.7 105.5 105.2
49 Arizona St. 105.4 104.6 105.1 105.0
50 Toledo 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
51 Indiana 104.3 104.5 104.7 104.5
52 Texas Tech 104.2 104.1 103.4 103.9
53 Minnesota 103.7 104.5 103.0 103.7
54 Ole Miss 104.2 102.9 102.6 103.2
55 California 104.4 102.3 102.5 103.1
56 Tennessee 104.2 102.5 102.4 103.0
57 Houston 103.0 102.5 103.2 102.9
58 Purdue 102.7 102.9 102.9 102.8
59 Utah 102.1 103.3 101.7 102.4
60 Navy 101.7 102.4 101.9 102.0
61 Vanderbilt 102.4 101.6 101.1 101.7
62 Colo. State 102.0 101.0 101.9 101.6
63 Maryland 101.1 102.4 100.8 101.4
64 Arkansas 101.8 101.0 101.0 101.3
65 Nebraska 101.1 102.0 100.3 101.1
66 Missouri 101.5 99.6 100.8 100.6
67 N. Carolina 100.9 100.0 99.8 100.2
68 Virginia 100.1 99.6 100.3 100.0
69 Western Michigan 99.6 98.4 100.7 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.0 99.1 99.7 99.3
71 SMU 98.2 98.6 98.5 98.4
72 Wyoming 99.1 97.8 98.0 98.3
73 Army 98.0 98.1 98.5 98.2
74 Baylor 97.2 98.9 97.2 97.8
75 Florida Atlantic 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
76 Air Force 96.3 96.7 96.8 96.6
77 Tulsa 96.4 96.5 96.0 96.3
78 Arkansas St. 95.5 96.4 97.0 96.3
79 Eastern Michigan 96.0 95.6 96.4 96.0
80 Ohio U 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
81 Troy 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7
82 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
83 Oregon St. 95.6 95.3 94.2 95.0
84 Fresno St. 94.8 93.9 95.4 94.7
85 Appalachian St. 95.2 93.7 95.1 94.7
86 Tulane 94.1 94.2 94.4 94.2
87 Northern Illinois 93.9 93.8 94.8 94.1
88 U T S A 92.3 94.4 93.5 93.4
89 Temple 92.7 93.2 92.7 92.9
90 Marshall 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
91 Central Michigan 91.4 92.3 91.8 91.8
92 Utah St. 92.1 91.3 91.7 91.7
93 W. Kentucky 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
94 Miami (O) 88.6 90.7 89.9 89.7
95 Illinois 89.4 90.5 88.3 89.4
96 Louisiana Tech 88.5 90.2 89.3 89.4
97 BYU 89.1 89.0 88.5 88.8
98 Massachusetts 88.8 88.1 89.0 88.6
99 Cincinnati 87.3 89.3 88.6 88.4
100 Akron 87.0 89.4 87.5 88.0
101 U N L V 87.2 88.8 87.4 87.8
102 Nevada 86.4 88.4 87.9 87.5
103 New Mexico 87.4 87.2 88.0 87.5
104 N. Mexico St. 87.5 85.9 87.8 87.1
105 Florida Int’l. 86.4 86.6 87.3 86.8
106 Buffalo 85.1 87.4 87.1 86.5
107 S. Alabama 85.7 88.0 85.7 86.5
108 Hawaii 85.0 86.0 84.8 85.3
109 Middle Tennessee 84.5 85.7 85.1 85.1
110 Connecticut 83.8 85.9 83.7 84.5
111 Southern Miss. 83.9 85.1 84.4 84.4
112 Georgia St. 84.3 84.0 84.3 84.2
113 N. Texas 83.1 84.8 83.6 83.8
114 Old Dominion 82.2 84.8 82.3 83.1
115 East Carolina 82.3 83.9 82.1 82.8
116 Kansas 81.9 85.0 80.9 82.6
117 UL-Lafayette 81.1 82.5 81.1 81.6
118 Idaho 80.2 81.4 80.9 80.8
119 UL-Monroe 80.4 81.5 79.5 80.5
120 Bowling Green 78.9 79.8 79.3 79.3
121 Kent St. 77.2 78.8 77.5 77.8
122 UAB 75.7 79.0 77.7 77.5
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.0 76.1 75.3 75.5
125 Georgia Southern 74.4 75.9 73.8 74.7
126 Texas St. 73.2 75.3 72.5 73.7
127 U T E P 72.1 75.0 72.4 73.2
128 Charlotte 72.2 74.5 72.5 73.1
129 Ball St. 69.3 71.4 70.3 70.3
130 Coastal Carolina 69.3 70.7 70.2 70.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 7-0 113.1 114.5 114.4 114.0
South Florida 4-1 7-1 110.0 108.8 110.8 109.9
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.7 93.2 92.7 92.9
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.3 89.3 88.6 88.4
Connecticut 2-3 3-5 83.8 85.9 83.7 84.5
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.3 83.9 82.1 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 4-1 7-1 106.5 105.9 107.0 106.4
Houston 3-2 5-3 103.0 102.5 103.2 102.9
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.7 102.4 101.9 102.0
SMU 3-1 6-2 98.2 98.6 98.5 98.4
Tulsa 1-4 2-7 96.4 96.5 96.0 96.3
Tulane 1-3 3-5 94.1 94.2 94.4 94.2
             
AAC Averages     97.4 98.0 97.8 97.7
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 5-1 7-1 127.6 125.0 127.1 126.6
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-2 116.9 116.2 116.9 116.7
Florida St. 2-4 2-5 116.6 115.7 115.1 115.8
Louisville 2-4 5-4 111.8 110.9 111.6 111.4
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 112.0 110.3 111.4 111.2
Boston College 3-3 5-4 109.6 109.3 109.6 109.5
Wake Forest 2-3 5-3 109.0 107.4 108.7 108.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 3-1 7-1 122.3 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 5-0 7-0 120.4 118.5 119.6 119.5
Georgia Tech 3-2 4-3 116.4 114.0 115.2 115.2
Pittsburgh 2-3 4-5 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.1
Duke 1-5 4-5 106.3 105.6 105.0 105.6
N. Carolina 0-6 1-8 100.9 100.0 99.8 100.2
Virginia 2-2 5-3 100.1 99.6 100.3 100.0
             
ACC Averages     112.6 111.4 112.0 112.0
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 4-1 7-1 124.4 123.3 125.2 124.3
Oklahoma 4-1 7-1 121.7 120.7 122.1 121.5
T C U 4-1 7-1 118.7 116.8 119.0 118.1
Texas 3-2 4-4 115.8 116.2 116.5 116.2
Iowa State 4-1 5-3 112.9 112.8 114.2 113.3
Kansas St. 2-3 4-4 110.4 110.4 110.3 110.4
West Virginia 3-2 5-3 109.8 110.4 110.0 110.1
Texas Tech 1-4 4-4 104.2 104.1 103.4 103.9
Baylor 0-5 0-8 97.2 98.9 97.2 97.8
Kansas 0-5 1-7 81.9 85.0 80.9 82.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.9 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 5-0 7-1 135.7 133.3 135.8 134.9
Penn St. 4-1 7-1 129.8 127.6 130.7 129.4
Michigan 3-2 6-2 112.8 112.9 111.8 112.5
Michigan St. 4-1 6-2 104.3 105.7 105.5 105.2
Indiana 0-5 3-5 104.3 104.5 104.7 104.5
Maryland 2-3 4-4 101.1 102.4 100.8 101.4
Rutgers 2-3 3-5 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 5-0 8-0 120.3 117.4 118.8 118.9
Northwestern 3-2 5-3 110.6 109.4 110.6 110.2
Iowa 2-3 5-3 109.8 110.1 109.5 109.8
Minnesota 1-4 4-4 103.7 104.5 103.0 103.7
Purdue 1-4 3-5 102.7 102.9 102.9 102.8
Nebraska 3-2 4-4 101.1 102.0 100.3 101.1
Illinois 0-5 2-6 89.4 90.5 88.3 89.4
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 4-0 5-3 95.7 97.7 97.2 96.9
Marshall 3-1 6-2 91.6 92.9 93.3 92.6
W. Kentucky 3-2 5-3 91.0 91.0 91.9 91.3
Florida Int’l. 3-1 5-2 86.4 86.6 87.3 86.8
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.5 85.7 85.1 85.1
Old Dominion 0-4 2-6 82.2 84.8 82.3 83.1
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.2 74.5 72.5 73.1
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-2 5-2 92.3 94.4 93.5 93.4
Louisiana Tech 2-2 4-4 88.5 90.2 89.3 89.4
Southern Miss. 3-2 5-3 83.9 85.1 84.4 84.4
N. Texas 4-1 5-3 83.1 84.8 83.6 83.8
UAB 3-1 5-2 75.7 79.0 77.7 77.5
Rice 1-3 1-7 75.0 76.1 75.3 75.5
U T E P 0-4 0-8 72.1 75.0 72.4 73.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   7-1 122.4 120.9 123.3 122.2
Army   6-2 98.0 98.1 98.5 98.2
BYU   2-7 89.1 89.0 88.5 88.8
Massachusetts   2-6 88.8 88.1 89.0 88.6
             
Independents Averages     99.6 99.0 99.8 99.5
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.6 90.7 89.9 89.7
Akron 4-1 5-4 87.0 89.4 87.5 88.0
Buffalo 1-4 3-6 85.1 87.4 87.1 86.5
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.9 79.8 79.3 79.3
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.2 78.8 77.5 77.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 4-0 7-1 104.1 104.2 105.8 104.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.6 98.4 100.7 99.6
Eastern Michigan 0-4 2-6 96.0 95.6 96.4 96.0
Northern Illinois 4-0 6-2 93.9 93.8 94.8 94.1
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.4 92.3 91.8 91.8
Ball St. 0-4 2-6 69.3 71.4 70.3 70.3
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-0 6-2 106.8 105.1 106.8 106.2
Colo. State 4-1 6-3 102.0 101.0 101.9 101.6
Wyoming 3-1 5-3 99.1 97.8 98.0 98.3
Air Force 3-2 4-4 96.3 96.7 96.8 96.6
Utah St. 2-3 4-5 92.1 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-4 3-5 87.4 87.2 88.0 87.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 3-2 7-2 99.0 99.1 99.7 99.3
Fresno St. 4-1 5-3 94.8 93.9 95.4 94.7
U N L V 2-3 3-5 87.2 88.8 87.4 87.8
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.4 88.4 87.9 87.5
Hawaii 1-4 3-5 85.0 86.0 84.8 85.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-8 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 4-1 7-1 127.4 124.7 127.8 126.6
Stanford 5-1 6-2 118.8 117.4 118.2 118.1
Washington St. 3-2 6-2 114.4 112.1 113.8 113.4
Oregon 2-4 5-4 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
California 1-5 4-5 104.4 102.3 102.5 103.1
Oregon St. 0-5 1-7 95.6 95.3 94.2 95.0
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 5-1 7-2 118.7 117.9 118.6 118.4
Arizona 4-1 6-2 108.8 107.2 107.9 108.0
Colorado 2-4 5-4 107.7 106.0 105.6 106.4
U C L A 2-3 4-4 106.0 105.2 105.4 105.5
Arizona St. 3-2 4-4 105.4 104.6 105.1 105.0
Utah 1-4 4-4 102.1 103.3 101.7 102.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 5-0 8-0 128.6 128.7 129.0 128.8
Florida 3-3 3-4 111.0 110.4 110.2 110.5
S. Carolina 4-2 6-2 108.4 107.4 107.5 107.8
Kentucky 3-2 6-2 107.5 106.3 106.6 106.8
Tennessee 0-5 3-5 104.2 102.5 102.4 103.0
Vanderbilt 0-5 3-5 102.4 101.6 101.1 101.7
Missouri 0-4 3-5 101.5 99.6 100.8 100.6
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 139.0 134.8 137.8 137.2
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.4 124.3 126.5 125.7
L S U 3-1 6-2 116.2 114.3 116.7 115.7
Mississippi St. 3-2 6-2 114.3 114.6 114.6 114.5
Texas A&M 3-2 5-3 107.4 105.4 106.6 106.5
Ole Miss 1-4 3-5 104.2 102.9 102.6 103.2
Arkansas 1-4 3-5 101.8 101.0 101.0 101.3
             
SEC Averages     112.3 111.0 111.7 111.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Arkansas St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 96.4 97.0 96.3
Troy 3-1 6-2 95.8 95.9 95.3 95.7
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-3 95.2 93.7 95.1 94.7
N. Mexico St. 1-3 3-5 87.5 85.9 87.8 87.1
S. Alabama 2-2 3-5 85.7 88.0 85.7 86.5
Georgia St. 3-1 4-3 84.3 84.0 84.3 84.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 81.1 82.5 81.1 81.6
Idaho 2-2 3-5 80.2 81.4 80.9 80.8
UL-Monroe 3-3 3-5 80.4 81.5 79.5 80.5
Georgia Southern 0-3 0-7 74.4 75.9 73.8 74.7
Texas St. 1-3 2-6 73.2 75.3 72.5 73.7
Coastal Carolina 0-5 1-7 69.3 70.7 70.2 70.1
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.6 84.3 83.6 83.8

PiRate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.6 111.4 112.0 112.0
2 SEC 112.3 111.0 111.7 111.7
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.9 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.4 108.5
6 INDEP. 99.6 99.0 99.8 99.5
7 AAC 97.4 98.0 97.8 97.7
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.6 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Troy
Cure AAC SBC Navy Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Utah St.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Western Michigan Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [UAB] [Miami (O)]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tennessee]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Georgia St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida Air Force
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Utah] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Michigan] [Western Ky.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Tech Colorado
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Wake Forest [Southern Miss.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Nebraska
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Fresno St.] Washington St.
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Houston Boston College
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan St. Arizona
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Miami (Fla.) South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Iowa Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [Arizona St.]
Cotton At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Clemson
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Auburn
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 North Carolina St. Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Texas A&M
Peach At-large At-large Wisconsin Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Northwestern Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Georgia Ohio St.
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It has become an annual inclusion in the PiRate Ratings, printed on the first November weekend of every season, to post the famous football poem concerning the old Oakland Raiders from their heyday.  Since, we are only posting ratings and spreads without commentary in the NFL reports, we will include this poem today.

The Autumn Wind

By Steve Sabol

The Autumn Wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea,
With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weather beaten.
He wears a hooded sash,
With a silver hat about his head,
And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,
A villain big and bold.
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,
As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a Radier,
Pillaging just for fun.
He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,
And laugh when he’s conquered and won.


Another annual November rite includes the adding of Mid-American Conference football games Tuesdays and Wednesdays, so that from last Thursday, a football fan can watch some college or pro game every day of the week.  Of course, with the incredible World Series going on at the current time, who would watch Sunday Night Football, or the Tuesday (and maybe Wednesday) MAC games?

This week features another great slate of college football games.  There are Playoff eliminators, bowl eliminators, and bowl positioning games.  Additionally, there are possibilities where additional coaches could be let go before the end of the season, as the Chip Kelly Sweepstakes has now begun in earnest.

In case you haven’t heard, Florida let Jim McElwain go after the cocktail party in Jacksonville failed to serve any appetizers to the Gators.  The Bulldogs did all the eating, and Randy Shannon will now guide the Gators until the season ends.  That ending now looks to be against Florida State and not in a bowl game, as the Gators are now 3-4 with only 11 games to be played due to the hurricane.

Speaking of Florida State, the Seminoles also may finish play against Florida.  It looks like FSU could be heading toward a 5-6 record and not earn a bowl bid.

The top game this week has to be Bedlam.  Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State, and the winner stays in contention for a Playoff spot, while the loser hopes to be able to finish in second place to possibly earn a rematch with the winner in the Big 12 Championship. Game.

This past weekend saw Penn State, South Florida, and TCU fall from the unbeaten ranks, leaving Alabama, Georgia, Central Florida, Miami, and Wisconsin as the final five undefeated teams.  You will notice in our bowl projections, we have removed UCF from the New Year’s 6 Bowl in favor of Memphis, after this past weekend saw FCS school Austin Peay hang 33 points on the Knights.  Toledo is still very much alive in the Group of 5 race for the one NY6 bowl bid.

Our prognosticators here on the ship have looked through the spyglass, and they see some rough waters ahead for both Wisconsin and Miami, so it could be that the last two unbeaten teams just may square off prior to the Playoffs with the loser having a shot at revenge in the National Championship Game.

The Playoff Committee has never selected two teams from the same conference in the short history of NCAA Playoffs, but if Alabama and Georgia run the table in the regular season, and when they face off in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, they are the last two undefeated teams and ranked number one and number two, the loser would have a better than 50-50 chance of remaining in the top four, maybe even at number two!

Notre Dame is probably at the top of the one-loss team hierarchy in the Playoff race.  Their lone loss is by one point to Georgia, and if they win out, their strength of schedule should be enough to give them a Playoff invitation.

As for the fourth spot, how can you deny Oklahoma, if the Sooners win out, or Oklahoma State if the Cowboys win out?  Ohio State lost at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes need for the Sooners to lose again.  However, if Oklahoma State is the team that beats OU, and OSU wins out, it would be difficult not to include Mike Gundy’s team in as the fourth seed.

Then, there is Clemson.  The Tigers made it into the field last year with a 12-1 record, so wouldn’t it be the right thing to do to include the reigning national champion in the Playoff it is has the identical record to last season?

Ohio State can still improve its position with wins over Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but the Buckeyes realistically need for the Big 12 to produce a two-loss champion, and they might even need the ACC to do so as well.

There are some other interesting possibilities.  Georgia has to play at Auburn, and the Tigers could be playing for Coach Guz Malzahn’s job.  The Bulldogs must also face arch-rival Georgia Tech.  Alabama has tough games remaining against LSU this week, Mississippi State, and Auburn.  As dominant as the Crimson Tide have been in the Nick Saban era, they have only run the table one time, back in 2009.

The PiRate Lasses (5 wonderfully, brilliant, fun-loving ladies that give the Captain a hard time) demanded that some notice was made of their Money Line Parlays this past weekend.  They hit on 3 out of the 4 and came within an overtime of going 4-0.  Best of all, their two-team underdog parlay hit and paid off at +375 odds, so for the year, the parlay selections have gone from red numbers to black numbers.  Obviously, the Captain has lost control of the Thursday edition here, and you can expect to see the ladies do the game-picking for the rest of the season, or at least until their run of pure luck runs out.

October 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Toledo -29.0 -26.8 -29.3
Georgia St. South Alabama -0.7 -3.5 -1.1
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.3 1.6
Oregon St. Stanford -25.0 -23.9 -25.8
Boston College Florida St. -11.7 -10.5 -10.5
Memphis Tulane 12.3 11.5 11.9
SMU Tulsa 4.6 4.9 5.2
Purdue Nebraska 5.4 4.3 7.0
Kentucky Tennessee 6.4 6.9 7.7
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.8 8.6 9.2
Akron Buffalo 4.2 4.3 2.7
South Florida Houston 13.5 12.7 14.7
Wake Forest Louisville -3.4 -3.8 -3.6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) -19.1 -17.9 -19.6
Michigan Rutgers 20.0 20.2 19.5
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13.2 14.2 14.3
Massachusetts Appalachian St. -4.6 -3.5 -4.3
Pittsburgh Virginia 6.2 6.9 5.1
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.0 13.8 14.7
Connecticut Missouri -9.8 -5.3 -8.6
West Virginia Oklahoma St. -11.3 -9.7 -12.0
Maryland Indiana -0.9 0.4 -1.6
Virginia Tech Duke 18.5 18.7 20.2
Illinois Wisconsin -30.8 -26.5 -30.8
Coastal Carolina Texas St. 3.9 2.4 6.4
Deleted Game 0 0 0
Kansas Kansas St. -29.6 -26.4 -30.5
Iowa Minnesota 9.5 8.5 10.0
Wyoming New Mexico 7.2 6.1 5.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -3.1 -6.4 -4.3
BYU San Jose St. 15.0 14.8 15.1
UTEP UTSA -18.4 -17.3 -19.5
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe 1.8 2.5 3.3
Colorado St. Air Force 15.8 14.0 15.6
Southern Miss. UAB 17.4 15.2 15.8
Colorado California 3.9 4.7 3.2
Arizona St. USC -5.0 -5.3 -4.7
Rice Louisiana Tech -10.8 -11.4 -11.3
Oregon Utah 5.3 1.8 3.9
Notre Dame N. Carolina St. 5.7 4.9 6.3
Washington UCLA 23.7 21.8 24.7
Troy Georgia Southern 23.8 22.5 24.0
Northwestern Michigan St. 10.4 7.1 9.5
Deleted Game 0 0 0
North Texas Old Dominion 3.4 2.7 3.9
Baylor Texas -12.9 -11.7 -13.7
Iowa St. TCU -6.6 -4.1 -6.1
Florida (n) Georgia -12.3 -13.6 -13.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 0.6 -2.3 0.1
Arizona Washington St. -10.0 -8.7 -10.7
Oklahoma Texas Tech 20.3 19.3 21.5
Ole Miss Arkansas 6.4 5.5 5.6
Ohio St. Penn St. 9.0 8.4 7.8
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 1.4 -1.5 0.5
Utah St. Boise St. -6.4 -5.5 -6.4
Fresno St. UNLV 16.4 12.9 17.4
Hawaii San Diego St. -7.1 -6.2 -8.0
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Florida Austin Peay 41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Penn St.
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Notre Dame
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Central Florida
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Michigan St.
15 Stanford
16 Virginia Tech
17 North Carolina St.
18 Washington St.
19 USC
20 Auburn
21 South Florida
22 Michigan
23 Texas A&M
24 Mississippi St.
25 LSU
26 Iowa St.
27 Memphis
28 Georgia Tech
29 Toledo
30 West Virginia
31 Iowa
32 Boise St.
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona St.
35 Navy
36 Louisville
37 Fresno St.
38 San Diego St.
39 Arizona
40 Florida St.
41 Wake Forest
42 Texas
43 Northwestern
44 UCLA
45 Florida
46 Boston College
47 Texas Tech
48 Marshall
49 Colorado St.
50 Kentucky
51 SMU
52 Syracuse
53 Oregon
54 Northern Illinois
55 Indiana
56 California
57 Utah
58 Purdue
59 Virginia
60 Western Michigan
61 Houston
62 Troy
63 Minnesota
64 Maryland
65 Appalachian St.
66 Kansas St.
67 Army
68 Florida Atlantic
69 Duke
70 Pittsburgh
71 Southern Miss.
72 Nebraska
73 Colorado
74 Tennessee
75 Ohio
76 Ole Miss
77 Arkansas St.
78 Vanderbilt
79 Tulane
80 Akron
81 Arkansas
82 Air Force
83 Rutgers
84 Wyoming
85 North Texas
86 Utah St.
87 UTSA
88 New Mexico
89 Louisiana Tech
90 Florida Int’l.
91 Western Kentucky
92 Missouri
93 Tulsa
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Central Michigan
96 Cincinnati
97 Temple
98 North Carolina
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico St.
101 Miami (O)
102 Georgia St.
103 Middle Tennessee
104 South Alabama
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 UL-Monroe
109 UAB
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 UNLV
113 Hawaii
114 Oregon St.
115 BYU
116 UL-Lafayette
117 Old Dominion
118 Kent St.
119 Idaho
120 Bowling Green
121 Massachusetts
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Charlotte
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Georgia Southern
130 Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
3 Penn St. 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
4 Georgia 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
5 Washington 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
6 Clemson 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
7 Auburn 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
8 Oklahoma St. 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
9 Virginia Tech 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
10 Oklahoma 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
11 Miami 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
12 Notre Dame 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
13 Wisconsin 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
14 Stanford 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
15 T C U 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
16 Florida St. 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
17 N. Carolina St. 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
18 Washington St. 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
19 U S C 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
20 L S U 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
21 Georgia Tech 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
22 Texas 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
24 Florida 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
25 Louisville 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
26 Michigan 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
27 Kansas St. 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
29 Iowa State 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
30 Mississippi St. 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
31 Syracuse 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
32 Northwestern 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
33 West Virginia 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
34 Iowa 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
35 Texas A&M 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
36 Arizona St. 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
37 S. Carolina 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
38 Kentucky 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
39 Wake Forest 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
40 U C L A 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
41 Boston College 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
42 Duke 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
43 Colo. State 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
44 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
45 Oregon 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
46 Indiana 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
47 Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
48 Michigan St. 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
49 Memphis 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
50 Utah 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
51 Arizona 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
52 California 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
53 Texas Tech 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
54 Minnesota 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
55 Ole Miss 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
56 Purdue 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
59 Toledo 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
60 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
61 Virginia 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
62 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
63 Houston 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
64 Maryland 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
65 Arkansas 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
66 Nebraska 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
67 Baylor 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
68 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
69 N. Carolina 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
70 SMU 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
71 San Diego St. 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
72 Army 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
73 Missouri 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
74 Fresno St. 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
75 Tulsa 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Eastern Michigan 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
77 Florida Atlantic 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
78 Tulane 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
79 Troy 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
80 Ohio U 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
82 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
83 Marshall 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
84 Appalachian St. 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
85 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
86 Northern Illinois 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
87 Utah St. 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
88 U T S A 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
89 Air Force 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
90 W. Kentucky 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
91 Temple 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
92 Oregon St. 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
93 Central Michigan 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
94 New Mexico 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
95 Miami (O) 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
96 Louisiana Tech 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
97 BYU 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
98 Massachusetts 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
99 Cincinnati 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
100 Illinois 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
101 N. Mexico St. 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
103 Akron 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
104 S. Alabama 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
105 Nevada 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
106 Connecticut 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
107 Buffalo 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
108 Hawaii 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
109 U N L V 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
110 Middle Tennessee 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
111 Florida Int’l. 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
112 N. Texas 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
113 Old Dominion 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
114 Georgia St. 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
115 East Carolina 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
116 UL-Lafayette 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
117 Kansas 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
118 UL-Monroe 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
119 Idaho 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
120 Bowling Green 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
121 Kent St. 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
122 San Jose St. 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
123 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
124 Georgia Southern 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
125 UAB 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
126 U T E P 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
129 Ball St. 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
130 Texas St. 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 6-0 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
South Florida 4-0 7-0 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
Connecticut 2-3 3-4 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 3-1 6-1 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
Houston 2-2 4-3 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
SMU 2-1 5-2 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
Tulsa 1-3 2-6 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
Florida St. 2-3 2-4 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
Louisville 2-3 5-3 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
Wake Forest 1-3 4-3 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
Boston College 2-3 4-4 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 2-1 6-1 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 4-0 6-0 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
Duke 1-4 4-4 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
Pittsburgh 1-3 3-5 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
Virginia 2-1 5-2 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
N. Carolina 0-5 1-7 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 3-1 6-1 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
T C U 4-0 7-0 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
Texas 2-2 3-4 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
Kansas St. 1-3 3-4 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
Iowa State 3-1 5-2 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
West Virginia 3-1 5-2 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
Texas Tech 1-3 4-3 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
Baylor 0-4 0-7 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
Kansas 0-4 1-6 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
Penn St. 4-0 7-0 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
Michigan 2-2 5-2 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
Indiana 0-4 3-4 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
Michigan St. 4-0 6-1 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
Maryland 1-3 3-4 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
Rutgers 2-2 3-4 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-0 7-0 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
Northwestern 2-2 4-3 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
Iowa 1-3 4-3 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
Minnesota 1-3 4-3 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
Purdue 1-3 3-4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
Illinois 0-4 2-5 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 3-0 4-3 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
Marshall 3-0 6-1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
W. Kentucky 3-1 5-2 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
Old Dominion 0-3 2-5 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 1-2 4-2 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
Louisiana Tech 1-2 3-4 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
Southern Miss. 3-1 5-2 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
N. Texas 3-1 4-3 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
Rice 1-2 1-6 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
U T E P 0-3 0-7 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
Army   6-2 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
BYU   1-7 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
Massachusetts   1-6 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
             
Indep. Averages     99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
Akron 3-1 4-4 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-1 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 2-5 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
Ball St. 0-3 2-5 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 4-0 6-2 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
Boise St. 3-0 5-2 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
Wyoming 2-1 4-3 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
Utah St. 2-2 4-4 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
Air Force 2-2 3-4 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
New Mexico 1-3 3-4 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-2 6-2 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
Fresno St. 4-0 5-2 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
U N L V 1-3 2-5 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
Stanford 4-1 5-2 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
Oregon 1-4 4-4 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
California 1-4 4-4 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-2 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
Arizona St. 3-1 4-3 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
U C L A 2-2 4-3 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
Colorado 1-4 4-4 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
Utah 1-3 4-3 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
Arizona 3-1 5-2 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
Florida 3-2 3-3 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
Kentucky 2-2 5-2 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
Missouri 0-4 2-5 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
L S U 3-1 6-2 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
Mississippi St. 2-2 5-2 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
Arkansas 0-4 2-5 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 2-1 5-2 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-2 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
S. Alabama 2-1 3-4 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
Georgia St. 2-1 3-3 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
UL-Monroe 3-2 3-4 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
Idaho 1-2 2-5 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-6 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
Coastal Carolina 0-4 1-6 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC North Texas South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Houston Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Arizona
New Mexico CUSA MWC La. Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC N. Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Colorado] Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Fla. Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 SMU [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Arkansas St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Navy San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Virginia [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Iowa USC
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [Western Ky.] Boston Coll.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech West Virginia
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Georgia St.
Cotton At-large At-large TCU Arizona St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1

 

 

August 24, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for August 26, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:19 am

It’s here!  We hope you enjoyed a nice summer.  It’s football time in America once again.  Yes, in just two days, five college football games will dot the abbreviated schedule, including a game in Sydney, Australia.

For those new to this online establishment, the PiRates have been issuing ratings since 1969, when the Captain was a little buccaneer.  The ratings have been refined through the years, and in its current form, they look beyond the score of the game.  Our ratings rely on a perusal of the play-by-play data of the games, when the scores took place, how many yards were gained by each team, turnovers, and other odds and sods.  Two teams favored by 7 points over their opponents could both win their games 42-24, and they could mean two different things.  One team might have led 42-7 midway through the third quarter and allowed 17 points with their reserves.  The other team might have led 28-24 with 6 minutes to go in the game, and then the trailing team gave up a pick six and a fumble at their own 15 yard line to give up two late scores.  The former team could have won 70-7 if they had not let off the gas pedal, while the latter team might have lost the game had the turnovers not occurred.

Also, we factor in depth all through the season, underclassmen that contribute unexpectedly, and other factors that might affect a game score.  Additionally, our home field advantages are not fluid.  If North Carolina hosts Wake Forest, the home field advantage will be less than if North Carolina hosts Oregon State.  In some instances, the visiting team brings along an away from home field disadvantage.

We have three predictive ratings–PiRate, Mean, and Bias.  We also have retrodictive ratings that look only at past results and try to rank teams the way the polls should rank them.  At the beginning of the season, these retrodictive ratings have a rather high standard deviation, so we normalize them a bit with our predictive ratings.  By mid-October, these ratings are 100% retrodictive.

Let’s take a look at our Predictive Ratings for the 130 FBS schools.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
2 Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
3 Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
4 Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
5 Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
6 Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
7 Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
8 Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
9 U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
10 Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
11 L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
12 Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
13 Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
14 Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
15 Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
16 Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
17 Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
18 Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
19 Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
20 N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
21 Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
22 Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
23 Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
24 Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
25 Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
26 Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
27 Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
28 Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
29 South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
30 T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
31 Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
32 Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
33 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
34 Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
35 Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
36 Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
37 N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
38 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
39 U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
40 West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
41 Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
42 Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
43 Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
44 Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
45 Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
46 S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
47 Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
48 Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
49 Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
50 Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
51 Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
52 Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
53 Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
54 Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
55 Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
56 B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
57 Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
58 Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
59 Boston Coll. 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
60 Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
61 Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
62 Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
63 Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
64 Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
65 San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
66 Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
67 Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
68 W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
69 Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
70 Appalachian St. 99.8 96.8 100.4 99.0
71 Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
72 Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
73 Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
74 Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
75 Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
76 Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
77 SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
78 California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
79 Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
80 Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
82 Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
83 Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
84 Troy 94.1 94.4 93.4 94.0
85 Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
86 New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
87 U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
88 Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
89 Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
90 Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
91 Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
92 Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
93 Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
94 Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
95 Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
96 Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
97 Arkansas St. 88.3 90.1 90.0 89.5
98 Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
99 East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
100 Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
101 Idaho 86.4 89.1 87.2 87.5
102 Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
103 U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
104 Georgia St. 86.3 85.5 86.2 86.0
105 Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
106 Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
107 San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
108 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.8 84.7 85.5
109 Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
110 Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
111 Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
112 S. Alabama 83.8 86.8 84.0 84.9
113 Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
114 Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
115 Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
116 Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
117 N. Mexico St. 84.2 81.5 83.2 83.0
118 Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
119 Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
120 Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
121 N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
122 Georgia Southern 80.4 82.1 79.8 80.8
123 Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
124 Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
125 UL-Monroe 79.6 80.2 77.8 79.2
126 U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
127 Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
128 Coastal Carolina 72.1 73.5 73.9 73.2
129 Texas St. 70.7 74.7 69.4 71.6
130 UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3

Here are the predictive ratings by conference

<
American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
         
AAC Averages   98.7 98.7 98.5
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
         
ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
         
Big 12 Averages 108.4 108.7 108.6 108.6
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3
         
CUSA Averages 89.9 92.1 91.0 91.0
         
Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
         
Independents Averages 98.3 97.1 98.7 98.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
         
MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
         
MWC Averages 91.6 91.9 91.8 91.7
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4