The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 19, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 pm

Sunday’s Games

Sunday, March 20, 2022
VillanovaOhio St.4.4
DukeMichigan St.6.5
WisconsinIowa St.3.8
Texas TechNotre Dame7.3
AuburnMiami (Fla.)8.9
SMUWashington St.2.7
North TexasVirginia3.2
OklahomaSt. Bonaventure6.7
VMIUNC Wilmington0.7
Florida AtlanticNorthern Colorado5.7
UNC GreensboroBoston1.3
Abilene ChristianTroy3.9

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Data

TeamO-EffD-EffSOS37+ 3ptOReb%-45% vs. 2ptFT Rate 37R + T New RateR+T Old Rate
Ohio St.1313160.037.328.846.233.5-1.06.0
Michigan St.385360.837.830.747.930.43.08.5
Iowa St.1511059.736.828.250.728.11.23.8
Texas Tech65160.831.433.344.336.19.617.5
Notre Dame298456.838.022.549.327.0-2.53.8
Miami (Fla.)1715757.035.323.453.928.8-5.01.3

Sunday’s Bracketnomics Game Analysis

Illinois vs. Houston

This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).

Villanova vs. Ohio St.

This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.

This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.

The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.

Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.

This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.

Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame

If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.

Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)

Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.

Purdue vs. Texas

This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.

Arizona vs. TCU

One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.

March 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 6, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
America East Conference–Quarterfinals
Higher Seed at Home
Home TeamLower SeedSpread
Maryland Baltimore Co.UMass Lowell2.5
New HampshireBinghamton6.6
Big South Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Colonial Athletic Association–Quarterfinals
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
UNC WilmingtonElon3.4
Missouri Valley Conference CHAMPIONSHIP
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
DrakeLoyola (Chi.)4.2
Patriot League–Semifinals
Higher Seed at Home
Southern Conference–Semifinals
Asheville, NC
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Summit League–Quarterfinals Continue
Sioux Falls, SD
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Kansas CitySouth Dakota0.1
Oral RobertsWestern Illinois6.0
Sun Belt Conference–Semifinals
Pensacola, FL
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Appalachian St.Georgia St.-0.4

Sunday’s Regularly Scheduled Games
Home TeamVisitorSpread
RutgersPenn St.4.2
Ohio St.Michigan3.7
TulsaCentral Florida-2.5
TempleSouth Florida9.1
Michigan St.Maryland5.9

Dance Tickets Punched

1Murray St.Ohio Valley30-2

February 20, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 20, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
Wichita St.Houston-8.3
DetroitWright St.0.6
Central FloridaEast Carolina10.1
MilwaukeePurdue Fort Wayne-2.8
Northern IowaMissouri St.-1.4
SienaSaint Peter’s-2.4
FordhamGeorge Mason-3.2
OaklandNorthern Kentucky6.9
Green BayCleveland St.-8.4
San Jose St.New Mexico-6.0
HartfordStony Brook0.5
Loyola (MD)Lehigh5.0
BellarmineJacksonville St.0.8
USCWashington St.5.0
MissouriMississippi St.-5.9

February 2, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
Abilene ChristianChicago St.18.3
UNC AshevilleLongwood0.1
RadfordCharleston Southern10.4
Loyola (MD)Army3.3
East CarolinaTemple0.2
HamptonUSC Upstate-2.6
High PointGardner-Webb-2.2
Miami (Fla.)Notre Dame3.1
Wake ForestPittsburgh13.8
ClemsonFlorida St.3.7
MaineUMass Lowell-7.8
New HampshireHartford5.2
Stony BrookBinghamton7.6
Indiana St.Drake-3.9
George WashingtonLa Salle1.1
George MasonSaint Louis-2.1
FordhamRhode Island-4.4
Western CarolinaEast Tennessee St.-4.8
UNC GreensboroVMI1.8
FurmanThe Citadel16.1
Delaware St.Coppin St.-11.1
UT Rio Grande ValleyLamar6.8
Northern IowaBradley2.3
Loyola (Chi.)Illinois St.14.9
NC St.Syracuse0.5
Virginia TechGeorgia Tech11.7
Kansas St.Oklahoma St.0.6
Southern IllinoisMissouri St.-3.6

Conference Tournament Action Just Four Weeks Away

The Atlantic Sun, Horizon League, and Patriot League Conference Tournaments begin play in four weeks with 29 additional conference tournament to follow. Here’s a look at each conference with the start dates and dates of their championship.

Conference Tournaments 2022BeginsEndsTeams in
America EastHigher Seed Home5128
American AthleticFort Worth, TX101311
Atlantic 10Washington, DC91314
Atlantic CoastBrooklyn81215
Atlantic SunHigher Seed Home1812
Big 12Kansas City91210
Big EastNew York91211
Big SkyBoise, ID91211
Big SouthCharlotte2612
Big TenIndianapolis91314
Big WestHenderson, NV81210
Colonial AthleticWashington, DC589
Conference USAFrisco, TX91214
HorizonSee Footnote1812
Ivy LeagueBoston12134
Metro AtlanticAtlantic City, NJ81211
Mideastern AthleticNorfolk, VA9128
Missouri ValleySt. Louis3610
Mountain WestLas Vegas6911
NortheastHigher Seed Home289
Ohio ValleyEvansville, IN258
Pac-12Las Vegas91212
PatriotHigher Seed Home1910
SouthernAsheville, NC4710
SouthlandKaty, TX9138
Southwestern AthleticBirmingham9128
SummitSioux Falls, SD588
Sun BeltPensacola, FL3712
West CoastLas Vegas3810
Western AthleticLas Vegas8129
Footnote : The opening two rounds played on higher seed home. Final 2 rounds will be played in Indianapolis

January 30, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 30, 2022

PurdueOhio St.9.2
East CarolinaCincinnati-5.9
Wright St.Purdue Fort Wayne4.4
Northern KentuckyCleveland St.-1.4
George WashingtonFordham-1.5
Fairleigh DickinsonCentral Connecticut1.3
BryantLong Island5.1
IonaSaint Peter’s11.1
Morgan St.Delaware St.14.1
St. Francis (NY)Wagner-11.8
DrakeLoyola (Chi.)-3.2
BradleyIndiana St.7.9
MassachusettsGeorge Mason8.7
Boston CollegePittsburgh4.0
Southern IllinoisValparaiso5.8
BucknellLoyola (MD)-3.9
McNeese St.New Orleans0.7
Washington St.Colorado5.8

January 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 27, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
Florida Gulf CoastEastern Kentucky2.8
Appalachian St.Arkansas St.3.7
Tennessee TechMurray St.-12.7
MarshallMiddle Tennessee-0.6
WagnerSt. Francis (PA)14.8
Sacred HeartSt. Francis (NY)4.1
Fairleigh DickinsonMount St. Mary’s-5.2
Central ConnecticutLong Island-6.4
UNC AshevilleGardner-Webb1.4
LibertyNorth Alabama13.5
DetroitIllinois Chicago6.6
Robert MorrisMilwaukee0.2
Youngstown St.Green Bay7.9
Coastal CarolinaLittle Rock11.4
James MadisonDrexel1.8
UNC WilmingtonNortheastern1.9
ElonWilliam & Mary8.8
Louisiana TechRice9.3
Kennesaw St.Jacksonville St.-2.6
UL MonroeGeorgia Southern1.0
MinnesotaOhio St.-3.9
Northern IllinoisBall St.-0.9
Southern IllinoisLoyola (Chi.)-7.3
UTSAFlorida International-4.1
Southern Miss.North Texas-14.1
Northern ColoradoWeber St.-0.5
Houston BaptistNew Orleans-4.9
Chicago St.Utah Valley-15.2
North FloridaCentral Arkansas6.8
UT ArlingtonTexas St.-1.4
South AlabamaTroy5.7
LouisianaGeorgia St.3.6
OmahaOral Roberts-14.6
South DakotaNorth Dakota St.0.5
South Dakota St.North Dakota23.4
SIU EdwardsvilleTennessee St.4.6
Austin PeayBelmont-13.2
Northwestern St.Incarnate Word5.0
McNeese St.Nicholls St.-3.2
MemphisEast Carolina13.7
UC DavisCal St. Fullerton0.8
Southeast Missouri St.Morehead St.-7.2
UT MartinEastern Illinois11.1
Western KentuckyUAB-5.4
UTEPFlorida Atlantic0.6
Montana St.Eastern Washington6.2
SE LouisianaTexas A&M-CC1.2
UC IrvineCal St. Bakersfield10.0
UC San DiegoCal Poly5.8
UC RiversideLong Beach St.6.9
Portland St.Southern Utah-4.5
Sacramento St.Idaho St.6.5
San FranciscoSaint Mary’s2.2
San DiegoPepperdine8.8
GonzagaLoyola Marymount26.3
Santa ClaraBYU-3.0
HawaiiCal St. Northridge13.1

January 13, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, January 13, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:42 am
Kennesaw St.Florida Gulf Coast-2.5
DePaulSeton Hall-6.0
Washington St.Stanford7.7
ArmyBoston University-1.5
Appalachian St.Coastal Carolina1.0
WisconsinOhio St.0.7
Texas TechOklahoma St.6.4
Loyola (MD)Lafayette6.3
Holy CrossAmerican-0.1
Old DominionUTSA11.3
MarshallNorth Texas-4.8
Louisiana TechSouthern Miss.17.9
Middle TennesseeFlorida Atlantic2.7
WinthropUNC Asheville4.6
Robert MorrisWright St.-4.7
Youngstown St.Northern Kentucky2.2
Cleveland St.Oakland-1.6
Purdue Fort WayneDetroit Mercy-0.8
The CitadelUNC Greensboro-2.7
UABFlorida International17.1
Murray St.Tennessee St.19.8
BelmontAustin Peay22.0
LamarSam Houston-4.3
UT Rio Grande ValleyChicago St.10.5
MilwaukeeIllinois Chicago1.8
Green BayIUPUI9.9
Texas St.UL Monroe7.1
UT ArlingtonLouisiana-0.5
South DakotaDenver8.0
North DakotaWestern Illinois-9.8
OmahaSouth Dakota St.-18.0
Eastern IllinoisSIU Edwardsville-6.3
Western KentuckyRice7.7
MontanaSouthern Utah1.2
Weber St.Idaho16.4
Grand CanyonAbilene Christian3.0
New Mexico St.Tarleton St.8.2
South AlabamaGeorgia St.2.9
Long Beach St.UCSB-5.8
Cal St. FullertonCal St. Northridge9.0
Cal PolyUC Riverside-6.7
San DiegoPortland7.1
USCOregon St.16.4
PepperdineSaint Mary’s-12.0
San FranciscoLoyola Marymount10.1
HawaiiUC Irvine-6.4

January 9, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 9, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
EvansvilleIllinois St.-0.5
Ohio St.Northwestern7.6

January 6, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:30 am

Thursday, January 6, 2022

Loyola (Chi.)San Francisco5.1
IndianaOhio St.0.6
ColoradoWashington St.-0.7

March 10, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:07 pm

Thursday, March 11, 2021

South FloridaTemple-2.6
Central FloridaEast Carolina4.7
Georgia TechMiami11.1
Florida St.Duke4.8
Virginia TechNorth Carolina-3.0
West VirginiaOklahoma St.1.4
BaylorKansas St.22.7
TexasTexas Tech0.3
St. John’sSeton Hall-0.2
Southern UtahNorthern Colorado6.7
Idaho St.Montana St.-1.6
Eastern WashingtonNorthern Arizona15.2
Weber St.Montana4.9
MarylandMichigan St.2.2
Ohio St.Minnesota7.3
WisconsinPenn St.2.3
UCSBLong Beach St.14.8
UC DavisCal St. Bakersfield-5.4
UC IrvineCal Poly17.1
UC RiversideHawaii7.0
Western KentuckyUTSA5.3
Louisiana TechFlorida Atlantic8.9
Old DominionNorth Texas-6.1
Saint Peter’sRider6.2
ToledoBall St.8.3
Kent St.Ohio U1.1
BuffaloMiami (O)8.0
AkronBowling Green1.2
Florida A&MMorgan St.-1.2
Norfolk St.North Carolina Central4.6
San Diego St.Wyoming15.2
Boise St.Nevada4.0
Utah St.UNLV11.1
Colorado St.Fresno St.10.9
OregonArizona St.7.7
UCLAOregon St.5.4
KentuckyMississippi St.2.5
Ole MissSouth Carolina5.1
Northwestern St.New Orleans-2.2
Sam Houston St.Lamar8.8
Texas SouthernAlcorn St.7.1
California BaptistSeattle0.2
New Mexico St.UT Rio Grande Valley7.9

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

Championship Game–Saturday, March 13, 11 AM, ESPN2

6 U Mass-Lowell at 4 Hartford

American Athletic Conference

1st Round–Thursday, March 11 @ Fort Worth, TX

8 South Florida vs. 9 Temple (winner plays 1 Wichita St. Friday)

(4 SMU plays 5 Cincinnati Friday)

7 Tulsa vs. 10 Tulane (winner plays 2 Houston Friday)

6 Central Florida vs. 11 East Carolina (winner plays 3 Memphis Friday)

Atlantic Coast Conference

Quarterfinals, Thursday, March 11

1 Virginia vs. 8 Syracuse

4 Georgia Tech vs. 13 Miami (Fla.)

2 Florida St. vs. 10 Duke

3 Virginia Tech vs. 6 North Carolina

Atlantic 10 Conference

Championship Game–Sunday, March 14, 1PM, CBS @ Dayton, OH

1 Saint Bonaventure vs. 2 Virginia Commonwealth

Big East Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ New York, NY

1 Villanova vs. 8 Georgetown

4 St. John’s vs. 5 Seton Hall

2 Creighton vs. 10 Butler

3 Connecticut vs. 11 DePaul

Big Sky Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Boise, ID

1 Southern Utah vs. 8 Northern Colorado

4 Idaho St. vs. 5 Montana St.

2 Eastern Washington vs. 10 Northern Arizona

3 Weber St. vs. 6 Montana

Big Ten Conference

2nd Round–Thursday, March 11 @ Indianapolis, IN

8 Maryland vs. 9 Michigan St.

5 Ohio St. vs. 13 Minnesota

7 Rutgers vs. 10 Indiana

6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Penn St.

Big 12 Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Kansas City, MO

1 Baylor vs. 9 Kansas St.

4 West Virginia vs. 5 Oklahoma St.

2 Kansas vs. 7 Oklahoma

3 Texas vs. 6 Texas Tech

Big West Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

1 UCSB vs. 9 Long Beach St.

4 Cal St. Bakersfield vs. 5 UC-Davis

2 UC-Irvine vs. 10 Cal Poly

3 UC-Riverside vs. 6 Hawaii

Conference USA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Frisco, TX (Dallas Cowboys Practice Facility)

1E Western Kentucky vs. 4W UTSA

2W UAB vs. 6W Rice

1W Louisiana Tech vs. 4E Florida Atlantic

2E Old Dominion vs. 3W North Texas

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals Continue, Thursday, March 11 @ Atlantic City, NJ

4 Marist vs. 5 Niagara

3 St. Peter’s vs. 11 Rider

Mid-American Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Cleveland

1 Toledo vs. 8 Ball St.

4 Kent St. vs. 5 Ohio U

2 Buffalo vs. 7 Miami (O)

3 Akron vs. 6 Bowling Green

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals, Thursday, March 11 @ Norfolk, VA

2S Florida A&M vs. 3N Morgan St.

2N Norfolk St. vs. 3S UNC-Central

Mountain West Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

1 San Diego St. vs. 8 Wyoming

4 Boise St. vs. 5 Nevada

2 Utah St. vs. 7 UNLV

3 Colorado St. vs. 6 Fresno St.

Pac-12 Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

1 Oregon vs. 8 Arizona St.

4 UCLA vs. 5 Oregon St.

2 USC vs. 7 Utah

3 Colorado vs. 11 California

Patriot League

Championship Game, Sunday March 14, 12 PM EST, CBSSN

9 Loyola (MD) at 2 Colgate

Southeastern Conference

2nd Round–Thursday, March 11 @ Nashville, TN

8 Kentucky vs. 9 Mississippi St. (winner plays 1 Alabama Friday)

5 Florida vs. 13 Vanderbilt (winner plays 4 Tennessee Friday)

7 Missouri vs. 10 Georgia (winner plays 2 Arkansas Friday)

6 Ole Miss vs. 11 South Carolina (winner plays 3 LSU Friday)

Southland Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Katy, TX (Greater Houston)

4 Northwestern St. vs. 5 New Orleans

3 Sam Houston St. vs. 6 Lamar

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals Continue, Thursday, March 11 @ Birmingham, AL

4 Grambling vs. 5 Southern

3 Texas Southern vs. 6 Alcorn St.

Western Athletic Conference

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 11 @ Las Vegas

4 California-Baptist vs. 5 Seattle (winner plays 1 Grand Canyon Friday)

3 New Mexico St. vs. 6 UT-Rio Grande Valley (winner plays 2 Utah Valley Friday)

Automatic Qualifiers

Liberty 23-5

Winthrop 23-1

Loyola (Chi.) 24-4

Morehead St. 23-7

UNC-Greensboro 21-8

Appalachian St. 17-11

Drexel 12-7

Cleveland St. 19-7

Mount St. Mary’s 12-10

Oral Roberts 16-10

Gonzaga 26-0

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