The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 13-17, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:56 pm

We received a lot of comments last week from regular readers to this site that know how to contact us through another site.  We tend to keep our comments sections closed, because it becomes a task to monitor it for stuff that does not need to appear here.

The comments had nothing to do with our own picks last week.  We introduced five guest pickers, three of them members of the fairer sex, and overall, they had quite a successful week.

By far the overwhelming amount of responses were aimed at Buckeye Michelle.  The Ohio Transplant to the Sunny South merely went 5-0 picking 5 underdogs, and we received all kinds of comments pertaining to her, including a couple of marriage proposals.

Friday Dog 13 went 3-0 picking three prohibitive favorites that won by even larger scores than the line they were asked to cover.

Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2 in her seven picks, again, a very successful week that equates to a 56% Return on Investment.

Stewed Meat narrowly missed having a winning week, as Stewed went 2-3.  Bringing up the rear at 1-2 was Dean 615.

What about our own picks?  We suffered a lot of near misses and finished the week losing $90 imaginary after wagering $1,100 and going 5-6.  For the years, after two weeks, we are down $220 on a total of $1,700 wagered in our pretend bank account, so we are off to a bad year so far.

Just remember, all the picks you receive here this week and every week are free, and you should consider them worth exactly what you pay for them.

First, here are the PiRate’s official selections for the week.

Straight Spreads and Totals Selections–7

Favorite Underdog Spread/Total Pick
Army Hawaii           6 Army
Baylor Duke          6.5 Duke
Minnesota Miami (Ohio)          13 Minnesota
Denver Oakland          46 Under
Washington Indianapolis          47 Under
Cincinnati Baltimore           1 Baltimore
Dallas N.Y. Giants           3 Dallas

10-point Teaser Parlays–2

If you are unfamiliar with 10-point teasers, you can move the line by 10 points in your favor and play at less favorable odds than if you wager a straight wager against the spread or total.  By combining more than one game into a parlay, you can adjust the odds.  A 10-point teaser using three games makes the odds the same as wagering a straight wager.  You put up $11 of your money against $10 of the books, or what is referred to as -110 (You wager $110 versus the book wagering $100).

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Florida Colorado St. 31 Colorado St.
Texas USC 13.5 USC
Boston College Wake Forest 15 Wake Forest

 

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indiana Ball St. 4 Indiana
Penn St. Kent St. 24.5 Penn St.
Wisconsin BYU 11 Wisconsin

The Land Sharps

Now for our special sharps–our 5 guest pickers.  They have been tasked with selecting 3, 5, 7, or 9 college games each week.  None of the 5 know what the other 4 are picking, so in some cases, more than one guest is picking the same game, and even though it did not happen this week, we are sure that at some point, they could be on opposite sides of the same game.

We search for the best available line at oddshark.com.

Buckeye Michelle (5-0 for the season)

Syracuse + 3 1/2 vs. Florida St.

LSU +10 vs. Auburn

Duke +6 1/2 vs. Baylor

San Diego St. +5 1/2 vs. Arizona St.

Toledo +10 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

Friday Dog 13 (3-0 for the season)

Missouri -6 vs. Purdue

Tennessee -30 1/2 vs. UTEP

Virginia -3 1/2 vs. Ohio

 

Cal Gal Tiffany  (5-2 for the season)

Florida Int’l. -4 vs. U Mass.

Army -6 vs. Hawaii

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

Washington – 6 1/2 vs. Utah

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Stewed Meat (2-3 for the season)

Colorado St. +20 1/2 vs. Florida

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

Oregon St. +3 1/2 vs. Nevada

Washington -6 1/2 vs. Utah

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

 

Dean 615 (1-2 for the season)

Notre Dame -14 vs. Vanderbilt

North Texas +7 vs. Arkansas

TCU +14 vs. Ohio St.

 

 

 

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March 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 2, 2018

Championship Fortnight is now in full force, as in just a little over 24 hours from this writing, the first automatic bid to the Big Dance will be awarded.  That bid will go to the winner of the Ohio Valley Conference, which is now down to four teams.  Murray State and Belmont have yet to play in the tournament, as the top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals.  It will be a major surprise if Austin Peay or Jacksonville St. steal this bid, as both Murray and Belmont have the talent to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament.

Here’s a look at Thursday’s exciting conference tournament action.  A lot of games came down to the last minute.

Atlantic Sun Semifinals

Florida Gulf Coast   95     North Florida   72

Lipscomb   77                     Jacksonville   62

Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
3:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #2 Lipscomb ESPN

 

Big South Quarterfinals

Radford   59               Longwood   53

Winthrop   72            Gardner-Webb   68

UNC-Asheville   71   Charleston Southern   66

Liberty   73                  Campbell   59

Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #2 Radford #3 Winthrop ESPN3
8:30 PM #1 UNC-Asheville #5 Liberty ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
1:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN

 

Big Ten Second Round

Wisconsin   59   Maryland 54

Michigan   77     Iowa   71   ot

Penn St.   65       Northwestern   57

Rutgers   76        Indiana   69

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Michigan St. #9 Wisconsin Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 Nebraska #5 Michigan Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 Ohio St. #7 Penn St. Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 Purdue #14 Rutgers Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM Michigan St. or Wisconsin Nebraska or Michigan CBS
4:30 PM Ohio St. or Penn St. Purdue or Rutgers CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

 

Metro Atlantic First Round

St. Peter’s   60      Monmouth   58

Quinnipiac   67    Siena   58

Fairfield   71        Marist   57

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Rider #9 St. Peter’s ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 Canisius #7 Quinnipiac ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #3 Niagara #6 Fairfield ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Iona #5 Manhattan ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Rider or St. Peter’s Iona or Manhattan ESPN3
9:30 PM Canisius or Quinnipiac Niagara or Fairfield ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

 

Missouri Valley First Round

Northern Iowa   60    Evansville   50

Missouri St.   83          Valparaiso   79

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Loyola (Chi.) #9 Northern Iowa ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Drake #5 Bradley ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 Southern Illinois #7 Missouri St. ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Illinois St. #6 Indiana St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM Loyola/Evans/UNI Drake or Bradley CBSSN
5:00 PM SIU/MSU/Valpo Ill St. or Ind St. CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

 

Ohio Valley Quarterfinals

Jacksonville St.   73     Tennessee Tech   70

Austin Peay   73           Eastern Illinois   66

Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Murray St. #4 Jacksonville St. ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Belmont #3 Austin Peay ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Patriot League Quarterfinals

Bucknell   83        Loyola (MD)   78

Boston U   88        Lehigh   82

Colgate   76           Lafayette   54

Holy Cross   81     Navy   65

Semifinals–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
12:00 PM #2 Colgate #6 Holy Cross CBSSN
2:00 PM #1 Bucknell #5 Boston U CBSSN
       
Championship–March 7
Time Home Visitors TV
7:30 PM     CBSSN

 

 


Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Horizon League Tournament
Detroit (Motor City Madness)
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM #7 Green Bay #10 Detroit ESPN3
8:00 PM #8 Cleveland St. #9 Youngstown St. ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
5:30 PM #2 Wright St. GB or Detroit ESPN3
8:00 PM #1 Northern Kentucky Clev St or Youngs St. ESPN3
       
       
Quarterfinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #3 UIC #6 Milwaukee ESPN3
7:30 PM #4 Oakland #5 IUPUI ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM NKU/CSU/YSU Oakland or IUPUI ESPNU
9:30 PM Wright St./GB/Det UIC or Milwaukee ESPNU
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

 

Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 The Citadel #9 VMI ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 Samford #10 Chattanooga ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 UNC-Greensboro Citadel or VMI ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Mercer #5 Wofford ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 East Tennessee St. Samford or Chatt. ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Furman #6 Western Carolina ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM UNCG/Cit/VMI Mercer or Wofford ESPN3
6:30 PM ETSU/Sam/Chatt Furman or WCU ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM     ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 Loyola Marymount #9 Portland NBCSN
8:00 PM #7 Santa Clara #10 Pepperdine NBCSN
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #3 BYU #6 San Diego NBCSN
3:00 PM #4 San Francisco #5 Pacific NBCSN
7:00 PM #1 Gonzaga LMU or Portland ESPN2
9:00 PM #2 Saint Mary’s Santa Clara or Pepperdine ESPN2
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Gonz/LMU/Portland USF or Pacific ESPN
8:00 PM SMU/SCU/Pepperdine BYU or USD ESPN2
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM     ESPN

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Rating Conf.
1 Virginia 118.0 ACC
2 Villanova 117.8 BIGE
3 Duke 117.3 ACC
4 Purdue 116.9 BTEN
5 Michigan St. 116.6 BTEN
6 Cincinnati 116.5 AAC
7 Kansas 114.3 B12
8 West Virginia 113.8 B12
9 North Carolina 113.8 ACC
10 Texas Tech 113.7 B12
11 Gonzaga 113.5 WCC
12 Tennessee 113.1 SEC
13 Xavier 112.5 BIGE
14 Auburn 112.4 SEC
15 Nevada 112.4 MWC
16 Wichita St. 112.1 AAC
17 Ohio St. 111.9 BTEN
18 Michigan 111.8 BTEN
19 Clemson 111.7 ACC
20 Kentucky 111.4 SEC
21 Houston 111.2 AAC
22 Florida 111.2 SEC
23 Butler 111.0 BIGE
24 Creighton 110.9 BIGE
25 TCU 110.6 B12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings For Power Conferences

And Top Mid-Majors

Team PiRate Conf.
Rhode Island 108.9 A10
Davidson 106.5 A10
St. Bonaventure 105.1 A10
St. Louis 102.8 A10
St. Joseph’s 101.5 A10
VCU 100.5 A10
LaSalle 100.2 A10
Dayton 99.2 A10
George Washington 98.0 A10
Duquesne 98.0 A10
Richmond 97.6 A10
George Mason 96.9 A10
Massachusetts 96.6 A10
Fordham 94.0 A10
Cincinnati 116.5 AAC
Wichita St. 112.1 AAC
Houston 111.2 AAC
SMU 106.0 AAC
Temple 104.9 AAC
UCF 104.4 AAC
Tulsa 102.4 AAC
Connecticut 99.5 AAC
Memphis 99.5 AAC
Tulane 99.1 AAC
South Florida 92.0 AAC
East Carolina 92.0 AAC
Virginia 118.0 ACC
Duke 117.3 ACC
North Carolina 113.8 ACC
Clemson 111.7 ACC
Louisville 110.4 ACC
Miami FL 109.6 ACC
Florida St. 109.5 ACC
Virginia Tech 109.3 ACC
Notre Dame 109.3 ACC
Syracuse 108.0 ACC
North Carolina St. 107.9 ACC
Boston College 105.2 ACC
Wake Forest 104.1 ACC
Georgia Tech 102.7 ACC
Pittsburgh 96.2 ACC
Kansas 114.3 B12
West Virginia 113.8 B12
Texas Tech 113.7 B12
TCU 110.6 B12
Baylor 110.3 B12
Texas 109.6 B12
Oklahoma 108.7 B12
Kansas St. 108.4 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.1 B12
Iowa St. 103.7 B12
Villanova 117.8 BIGE
Xavier 112.5 BIGE
Butler 111.0 BIGE
Creighton 110.9 BIGE
Seton Hall 109.9 BIGE
Marquette 107.1 BIGE
St. John’s 106.8 BIGE
Providence 106.5 BIGE
Georgetown 103.9 BIGE
DePaul 103.4 BIGE
Purdue 116.9 BTEN
Michigan St. 116.6 BTEN
Ohio St. 111.9 BTEN
Michigan 111.8 BTEN
Penn St. 110.2 BTEN
Maryland 108.5 BTEN
Nebraska 107.3 BTEN
Indiana 106.2 BTEN
Wisconsin 106.0 BTEN
Northwestern 105.5 BTEN
Illinois 103.9 BTEN
Iowa 103.5 BTEN
Minnesota 103.5 BTEN
Rutgers 102.8 BTEN
Arizona 110.1 PAC12
Arizona St. 108.9 PAC12
USC 108.3 PAC12
UCLA 106.9 PAC12
Oregon 106.8 PAC12
Utah 106.3 PAC12
Stanford 104.3 PAC12
Washington 103.8 PAC12
Oregon St. 103.1 PAC12
Colorado 102.7 PAC12
Washington St. 97.8 PAC12
California 95.4 PAC12
Tennessee 113.1 SEC
Auburn 112.4 SEC
Kentucky 111.4 SEC
Florida 111.2 SEC
Texas A&M 110.6 SEC
Arkansas 109.7 SEC
Missouri 108.9 SEC
Alabama 108.3 SEC
Mississippi St. 107.3 SEC
Georgia 106.7 SEC
South Carolina 106.4 SEC
LSU 105.8 SEC
Vanderbilt 103.9 SEC
Mississippi 103.7 SEC
Gonzaga 113.5 WCC
Saint Mary’s 109.2 WCC
BYU 105.6 WCC
San Diego 101.8 WCC
San Francisco 100.8 WCC
Pacific 98.4 WCC
Loyola Marymount 94.5 WCC
Portland 93.6 WCC
Santa Clara 93.5 WCC
Pepperdine 91.5 WCC
Middle Tennessee 109.4 CUSA
Loyola (Chi.) 108.2 MVC
Nevada 112.4 MWC
Boise St. 108.7 MWC
New Mexico St. 107.4 WAC

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads For Power Conference Games

and Conference Tournament Games

Home Team or Higher Seed Visitor or Lower Seed Spread
Belmont Austin Peay 6.9
Canisius Quinnipiac 8.4
Citadel VMI -2.7
Cleveland St. Youngstown St. 1.2
Davidson Rhode Island 1.1
Drake Bradley -0.7
Green Bay Detroit 2.8
Illinois St. Indiana St. -0.3
Loyola (Chi.) Northern Iowa 6.5
Michigan St. Wisconsin 10.6
Murray St. Jacksonville St. 5.2
Nebraska Michigan -4.5
Ohio St. Penn St. 1.7
Oklahoma Iowa St. 8.5
Purdue Rutgers 14.1
Radford Winthrop -3.2
Rider St. Peter’s 6.4
Samford Chattanooga 3.0
Santa Clara Pepperdine 2.0
Southern Illinois Missouri St. -0.9
UNCA Liberty 4.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 1, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 1, 2018

Conference Tournament Action From Last Night

Big Ten Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Iowa 96 Illinois 87
Rutgers 65 Minnesota 54

Updated Big Ten Bracket

Second Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 Maryland #9 Wisconsin Big Ten
2:15 PM #5 Michigan Iowa Big Ten
6:30 PM #7 Penn St. #10 Northwestern Big Ten
8:45 PM #6 Indiana Rutgers Big Ten
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Michigan St. Mary or Wisc Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 Nebraska Michigan or Iowa Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 Ohio St. PSU or N’Western Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 Purdue Indiana or Rutgers Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM MSU/Mary/Wisc Neb/Mich/Iowa CBS
4:30 PM OSU/Purd/NW Purd/Ind/Rutg CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Wagner 73 Central Connecticut 61
Robert Morris 60 Mount St. Mary’s 56
Fairleigh-Dickinson 84 St. Francis (Pa) 75
Long Island 73 St. Francis (Bkn) 50

Updated Northeast Conference Bracket

Semifinals–March 3
Time Home Team Visitors TV
12:00 PM #1 Wagner #7 Robert Morris ESPN3
2:00 PM #4 Long Island #6 Fairleigh-Dickinson ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN2

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Tennessee Tech 60 SIU-Edwardsville 51
Eastern Illinois 73 Tennessee St. 71

Updated Ohio Valley Conference Bracket

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 Jacksonville St. Tennessee Tech OVC
9:00 PM #3 Austin Peay Eastern Illinois OVC
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Murray St. Jax. St. or Tenn Tech ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Belmont APSU or E. Illinois ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #3 Jacksonville ESPN3

 

Big South Conference Tournament
Championship Game at Higher Seed
Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed UNC-Asheville
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #2 Radford #10 Longwood ESPN3
3:30 PM #3 Winthrop #6 Gardner-Webb ESPN3
7:00 PM #1 UNC-Asheville #8 Charleston Southern ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Campbell #5 Liberty ESPN3

 

Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Bucknell #8 Loyola (MD) Stadium
7:00 PM #4 Lehigh #5 Boston U Stadium
7:00 PM #2 Colgate #7 Lafayette Stadium
7:00 PM #3 Navy #6 Holy Cross Stadium

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 Monmouth #9 St. Peter’s ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 Quinnipiac #10 Siena ESPN3
10:00 PM #6 Fairfield #11 Marist ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Rider Monmouth or St. Peter’s ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 Canisius Quinn. or Siena ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #3 Niagara Fair. or Marist ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Iona #5 Manhattan ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Rider/Monm/St. P Iona or Manhattan ESPN3
9:30 PM Can/Quinn/Siena Niag/Fair/Marist ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

While Rider and Canisius tied for the regular season conference championship, there are two other teams to watch closely in this tournament.  Iona has the best offense in the league, and in a tournament, sometimes the team that plays loose and can fill it up from outside will get a large lead against the other team that begins tight and cannot hit their perimeter shots.  Iona is the two-time defending tournament champion, and until the Gaels lose, they are our favorite to win it again, even as the four-seed.

The other team to watch from back of the pack is Fairfield, the hottest team in the league entering the tournament.  The Stags match up quite well with Niagara, who they would face in the quarterfinal round if they win tonight.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 Evansville #9 Northern Iowa ESPN3
8:30 PM #7 Missouri St. #10 Valparaiso ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Loyola (Chi.) Evansville or UNI ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Drake #5 Bradley ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 Southern Illinois MSU or Valpo ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Illinois St. #6 Indiana St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM Loyola/Evans/UNI Drake or Bradley CBSSN
5:00 PM SIU/MSU/Valpo Ill St. or Ind St. CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

Without Wichita State playing bully on the rest of the league, it was thought that the Valley would be a wide open race this year with a host of teams competing for the regular season and tournament championships.  However, Loyola (Chi.), with five players averaging double figure scoring, has been nearly unstoppable in conference play this year.  The Ramblers have only been to a single NCAA Tournament since their heydays of the 1960’s,   Loyola enters Arch Madness on a 14 for 15 winning streak.

If any other team wins this tournament, it will be a major upset and will produce a 15-seed or worse.  Loyola could be a 13-seed as the Tournament Champions.

There is one team from way back in the pack that has the potential to sneak into the semifinals.  Northern Iowa is the number 9 seed.  If they beat Evansville tonight, they might be the team that can match up best with Loyola, who they would face tomorrow.  If they were to eliminate the Goliath, then there isn’t another team in the field any better than the Panthers.

 

January 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Final Polls

Congratulations go to Coach Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the National Championship in a thrilling overtime victory over the Georgia Bulldogs.  Alabama wins the top spot in all three ratings, plus the retro rankings.  Here’s how the final numbers crunched.

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Ohio St.
4 Wisconsin
5 Central Florida
6 Penn St.
7 Clemson
8 Oklahoma
9 Notre Dame
10 Auburn
11 TCU
12 Michigan St.
13 Miami (Fla)
14 USC
15 Washington
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Northwestern
18 North Carolina St.
19 Iowa
20 Stanford
21 Virginia Tech
22 Mississippi St.
23 LSU
24 Memphis
25 Boise St.
26 Michigan
27 Iowa St.
28 Wake Forest
29 South Florida
30 Louisville
31 South Carolina
32 Washington St.
33 Toledo
34 Florida Atlantic
35 Boston College
36 Florida St.
37 Texas
38 Purdue
39 Kansas St.
40 San Diego St.
41 Fresno St.
42 Troy
43 Army
44 Navy
45 Texas A&M
46 Duke
47 Georgia Tech
48 Oregon
49 Utah
50 West Virginia
51 Missouri
52 Arizona St.
53 Houston
54 Texas Tech
55 Kentucky
56 Arizona
57 UCLA
58 Appalachian St.
59 Ohio
60 Indiana
61 Ole Miss
62 Pittsburgh
63 California
64 Northern Illinois
65 Temple
66 SMU
67 Minnesota
68 Marshall
69 North Texas
70 Virginia
71 Wyoming
72 Florida
73 Syracuse
74 Maryland
75 Central Michigan
76 Colorado
77 Colorado St.
78 Nebraska
79 Western Michigan
80 Louisiana Tech
81 Tulane
82 Vanderbilt
83 Arkansas St.
84 Southern Miss.
85 Florida Int’l.
86 Arkansas
87 Akron
88 Buffalo
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 Tennessee
92 North Carolina
93 UAB
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Rutgers
96 Air Force
97 New Mexico St.
98 UTSA
99 Miami (O)
100 Cincinnati
101 Tulsa
102 UNLV
103 Western Kentucky
104 Baylor
105 BYU
106 East Carolina
107 Nevada
108 Georgia St.
109 Massachusetts
110 Connecticut
111 Illinois
112 Old Dominion
113 UL-Monroe
114 Bowling Green
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 South Alabama
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Coastal Carolina
122 Georgia Southern
123 Kansas
124 Kent St.
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 136.9 133.5 135.8 135.4
2 Ohio St. 132.3 130.2 132.6 131.7
3 Georgia 130.8 130.0 131.4 130.7
4 Clemson 131.3 128.6 130.9 130.3
5 Penn St. 129.4 128.1 129.8 129.1
6 Oklahoma 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
7 Auburn 127.0 125.2 127.2 126.5
8 Washington 126.2 124.2 126.1 125.5
9 Wisconsin 126.4 123.9 125.5 125.3
10 Oklahoma St. 121.2 120.4 121.6 121.1
11 Stanford 120.6 119.0 119.9 119.8
12 U S C 120.1 119.2 119.8 119.7
13 L S U 118.5 116.3 118.8 117.9
14 Virginia Tech 118.1 117.6 117.9 117.8
15 Miami 118.6 117.4 117.5 117.8
16 T C U 118.0 116.5 118.2 117.6
17 N. Carolina St. 117.1 116.2 117.0 116.8
18 Central Florida 116.0 116.9 117.2 116.7
19 Louisville 116.8 116.0 116.5 116.4
20 Notre Dame 116.6 115.4 116.8 116.2
21 Florida St. 116.9 116.0 115.7 116.2
22 Northwestern 115.4 114.2 115.5 115.0
23 Iowa 114.3 114.5 113.6 114.2
24 Michigan 114.2 114.0 113.4 113.9
25 Mississippi St. 113.5 113.3 113.3 113.4
26 Memphis 113.2 112.5 114.0 113.2
27 Iowa State 112.8 112.8 113.9 113.2
28 Texas 112.9 112.9 113.5 113.1
29 Kansas St. 112.9 112.7 113.0 112.9
30 Boston College 112.6 112.3 112.6 112.5
31 Michigan St. 111.0 111.6 112.1 111.6
32 Wake Forest 112.1 110.4 112.2 111.6
33 Duke 111.1 110.0 110.4 110.5
34 Utah 109.9 109.9 110.1 110.0
35 Oregon 110.5 108.6 109.9 109.7
36 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
37 Washington St. 109.8 107.7 109.3 108.9
38 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
39 S. Carolina 109.1 108.3 108.2 108.5
40 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
41 Missouri 108.5 107.1 107.8 107.8
42 Boise St. 107.5 106.1 107.6 107.1
43 Texas A&M 107.9 106.0 107.0 107.0
44 West Virginia 106.7 107.4 106.7 106.9
45 Arizona St. 106.4 105.3 106.0 105.9
46 Kentucky 106.4 105.7 105.0 105.7
47 Purdue 105.6 105.4 106.1 105.7
48 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
49 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
50 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
51 Arizona 106.0 104.9 104.9 105.3
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Florida Atlantic 103.4 104.9 105.3 104.5
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 Navy 103.5 104.1 103.7 103.8
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 U C L A 103.0 102.4 102.3 102.6
58 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
59 San Diego St. 101.5 101.5 102.5 101.8
60 Houston 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Army 100.9 100.8 101.3 101.0
63 Appalachian St. 101.2 100.0 101.4 100.9
64 Toledo 100.1 100.1 102.1 100.8
65 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Troy 99.7 99.8 99.9 99.8
68 Fresno St. 99.9 98.6 100.8 99.8
69 Colo. State 99.8 99.1 99.7 99.5
70 Virginia 99.6 98.6 99.9 99.4
71 Ohio U 98.3 99.6 99.3 99.1
72 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
73 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
74 Temple 98.2 98.5 98.8 98.5
75 Wyoming 97.8 96.9 97.2 97.3
76 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
77 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.0 95.8 95.2
79 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
80 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
81 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
82 Arkansas St. 93.8 95.0 94.7 94.5
83 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
84 SMU 94.0 94.5 94.3 94.3
85 Utah St. 94.0 93.3 93.7 93.7
86 Marshall 92.4 93.5 93.8 93.3
87 Central Michigan 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.1
88 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
89 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
90 Louisiana Tech 90.8 92.4 91.6 91.6
91 Middle Tennessee 90.4 91.4 91.6 91.1
92 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 Massachusetts 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
98 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
99 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
100 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.0 88.4 88.0
101 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
102 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.4 87.8 87.9
103 N. Texas 86.4 87.8 86.9 87.0
104 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
105 N. Mexico St. 86.8 85.7 86.9 86.5
106 W. Kentucky 85.7 86.2 86.1 86.0
107 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
108 Akron 84.2 86.1 84.9 85.1
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 82.7 82.7 82.5 82.7
113 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
114 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
115 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
116 UL-Monroe 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
117 S. Alabama 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
118 Idaho 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
119 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
120 UAB 79.6 79.9 81.3 80.3
121 UL-Lafayette 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
122 Georgia Southern 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
123 Coastal Carolina 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
124 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
           
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.7 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 B12 109.8 109.9 110.0 109.9
4 P-12 109.4 108.1 108.6 108.7
5 BTEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 IND 99.1 98.6 99.2 99.0
7 AAC 97.9 98.3 98.2 98.1
8 MWC 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.2 89.1 89.0 88.8
10 CUSA 84.4 85.8 85.2 85.1
11 SBC 84.3 85.0 84.3 84.5

 

 

 

December 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Final Regular Season Polls

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:08 am

The PiRate Poll has been updated after the Conference Championship Games, and our ratings show something different from what the Playoff Committee will decide later today.

Our Retrodictive Ratings are our closest approximation to merit based rewards.  It only factors who you beat, where you beat them, when you beat them, and in minimal fashion how you beat them.  Here are our final Retro Ratings prior to the bowls and playoffs.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Clemson
2 Georgia
3 Oklahoma
4 Alabama
5 Ohio St.
6 Wisconsin
7 Central Florida
8 Penn St.
9 Auburn
10 Washington
11 Miami (Fla)
12 USC
13 Notre Dame
14 TCU
15 Virginia Tech
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Stanford
18 Michigan St.
19 Michigan
20 Washington St.
21 Northwestern
22 Memphis
23 LSU
24 North Carolina St.
25 Iowa
26 Louisville
27 Mississippi St.
28 Boston College
29 South Florida
30 Iowa St.
31 Boise St.
32 Toledo
33 Wake Forest
34 South Carolina
35 San Diego St.
36 Oregon
37 Florida Atlantic
38 Florida St.
39 Arizona St.
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 West Virginia
43 Purdue
44 Georgia Tech
45 Kansas St.
46 Missouri
47 Arizona
48 Fresno St.
49 UCLA
50 Navy
51 Troy
52 Houston
53 Texas Tech
54 Utah
55 Army
56 Kentucky
57 Duke
58 SMU
59 Northern Illinois
60 Indiana
61 Virginia
62 North Texas
63 California
64 Ole Miss
65 Ohio
66 Pittsburgh
67 Central Michigan
68 Minnesota
69 Florida
70 Syracuse
71 Maryland
72 Wyoming
73 Marshall
74 Appalachian St.
75 Colorado
76 Colorado St.
77 Temple
78 Nebraska
79 Western Michigan
80 Tulane
81 Arkansas St.
82 Florida Int’l.
83 Akron
84 Southern Miss.
85 Vanderbilt
86 Buffalo
87 Arkansas
88 UAB
89 Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 North Carolina
92 Eastern Michigan
93 Rutgers
94 Air Force
95 Louisiana Tech
96 Middle Tennessee
97 UTSA
98 Miami (O)
99 Cincinnati
100 Western Kentucky
101 Tulsa
102 UNLV
103 Baylor
104 New Mexico St.
105 BYU
106 East Carolina
107 Nevada
108 Georgia St.
109 Massachusetts
110 Connecticut
111 Illinois
112 Old Dominion
113 UL-Monroe
114 Bowling Green
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 South Alabama
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Coastal Carolina
122 Georgia Southern
123 Kansas
124 Kent St.
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

While our ratings show that Alabama should be chosen ahead of Ohio State, we believe there will be too much pressure to take two SEC teams and leave out the Big Ten and Pac-12, especially when the Rose Bowl is one of the semifinal games.

Our ratings reflect a 34-point loss by Ohio State at a mediocre Iowa team combined with a home loss to Oklahoma, which slightly offsets their wins over Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Alabama’s best wins were not as impressive as the Buckeyes, but as a whole, they did beat more decent teams, and the SEC is several points better than the Big Ten.  Plus, their one loss was at Auburn, a team that had just blown Georgia off the Jordan-Hare Field.  Truth be told, if the Committee deferred to the smart guys in Nevada, Alabama would be the number one seed in the playoffs.

Our Predictive ratings back us up on this point.  However, the predictive ratings show that Ohio State is one of the four best teams at this point of the season.  We are scratching our heads on why Oklahoma is so low in the predictive ratings, because they have been improving week by week.  Unfortunately, they may have fallen between the cracks in how we update.  We have a mechanical update based on statistics and the point in which an easy win was already guaranteed, and maybe OU kept missing out on extra points due to a few yards here or there.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
2 Clemson 132.8 129.9 132.6 131.8
3 Ohio St. 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
4 Georgia 130.6 129.9 131.2 130.6
5 Auburn 129.4 127.3 129.6 128.8
6 Penn St. 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
7 Oklahoma 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
8 Washington 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
9 Wisconsin 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
10 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
11 U S C 120.4 119.5 120.1 120.0
12 Stanford 120.7 119.1 120.1 120.0
13 Miami 119.3 118.1 118.2 118.5
14 L S U 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
15 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
16 Louisville 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
17 T C U 117.9 116.4 118.0 117.4
18 Florida St. 116.9 115.9 115.4 116.1
19 Notre Dame 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
20 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
21 Michigan 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
22 Northwestern 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
23 Central Florida 113.6 114.8 114.8 114.4
24 Iowa 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
25 Memphis 113.5 112.7 114.4 113.5
26 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
27 Boston College 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
28 Washington St. 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
29 Mississippi St. 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
30 Texas 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
31 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
32 Wake Forest 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
33 Oregon 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
34 Duke 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
35 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Missouri 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
38 West Virginia 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
39 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
40 Utah 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
41 Michigan St. 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
42 Arizona St. 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
43 S. Carolina 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
44 Texas A&M 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
45 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
46 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
47 Purdue 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
48 Kentucky 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
49 Arizona 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
50 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
51 Boise St. 105.7 104.5 105.8 105.3
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Toledo 103.6 103.6 105.6 104.3
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 U C L A 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 Virginia 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
58 San Diego St. 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
59 Houston 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Florida Atlantic 99.9 101.4 101.8 101.0
63 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
64 Navy 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
65 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Army 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
68 Troy 99.3 99.4 99.3 99.3
69 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
70 Fresno St. 98.9 97.6 99.8 98.8
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 SMU 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 96.5 97.9 97.4
74 Ohio U 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
75 Temple 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
76 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
77 Northern Illinois 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
79 Arkansas St. 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
80 Central Michigan 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
81 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
82 Wyoming 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
83 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
84 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
85 Utah St. 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
86 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
87 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
88 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
89 Marshall 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
90 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
91 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
92 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
93 Florida Int’l. 89.5 89.7 90.5 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 Massachusetts 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
98 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
99 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
100 Akron 87.7 89.6 88.4 88.6
101 Louisiana Tech 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
103 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
104 W. Kentucky 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
105 N. Texas 86.8 88.2 87.5 87.5
106 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
107 N. Mexico St. 85.8 84.7 85.9 85.5
108 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
113 UAB 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
114 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
115 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
116 UL-Monroe 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
117 S. Alabama 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
118 Idaho 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
119 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
120 Georgia St. 80.9 81.0 80.6 80.9
121 UL-Lafayette 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
122 Georgia Southern 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
123 Coastal Carolina 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
124 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 8-0 12-0 113.6 114.8 114.8 114.4
South Florida 6-2 9-2 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 4-4 6-6 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
Connecticut 2-6 3-9 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
Cincinnati 2-6 4-8 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
East Carolina 2-6 3-9 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 7-1 10-2 113.5 112.7 114.4 113.5
Houston 5-3 7-4 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
Navy 4-4 6-5 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
SMU 4-4 7-5 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
Tulane 3-5 5-7 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
Tulsa 1-7 2-10 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 12-1 132.8 129.9 132.6 131.8
Louisville 4-4 8-4 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
Florida St. 3-5 6-6 116.9 115.9 115.4 116.1
N. Carolina St. 6-2 8-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Boston College 4-4 7-5 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
Wake Forest 4-4 7-5 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-1 10-2 119.3 118.1 118.2 118.5
Virginia Tech 5-3 9-3 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
Duke 3-5 6-6 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-6 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
Virginia 3-5 6-6 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
N. Carolina 1-7 3-9 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.1 112.0 112.6 112.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 12-1 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
Oklahoma St. 6-3 9-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 7-2 10-3 117.9 116.4 118.0 117.4
Iowa State 5-4 7-5 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Texas 5-4 6-6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
Kansas St. 5-4 7-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-4 7-5 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
Baylor 1-8 1-11 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-9 1-11 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 8-1 11-2 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
Penn St. 7-2 10-2 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
Michigan 5-4 8-4 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
Michigan St. 7-2 9-3 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
Indiana 2-7 5-7 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
Maryland 2-7 4-8 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
Rutgers 3-6 4-8 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 9-0 12-1 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
Northwestern 7-2 9-3 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
Iowa 4-5 7-5 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
Purdue 4-5 6-6 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
Minnesota 2-7 5-7 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
Nebraska 3-6 4-8 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
Illinois 0-9 2-10 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 8-0 10-3 99.9 101.4 101.8 101.0
Marshall 4-4 7-5 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
Middle Tennessee 4-4 6-6 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
Florida Int’l. 5-3 8-4 89.5 89.7 90.5 89.9
W. Kentucky 4-4 6-6 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
Charlotte 1-7 1-11 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-5 6-5 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
Southern Miss. 6-2 8-4 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
N. Texas 7-1 9-4 86.8 88.2 87.5 87.5
UAB 6-2 8-4 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
Rice 1-7 1-11 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
U T E P 0-8 0-12 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
             
CUSA Averages     84.2 85.6 85.0 84.9
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-3 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
Army   8-3 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
Massachusetts   4-8 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
BYU   4-9 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     98.7 98.3 98.7 98.6
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
Miami (O) 4-4 5-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Buffalo 4-4 6-6 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
Akron 6-2 7-6 87.7 89.6 88.4 88.6
Bowling Green 2-6 2-10 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
Kent St. 1-7 2-10 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 7-1 11-2 103.6 103.6 105.6 104.3
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
Western Michigan 4-4 6-6 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
Central Michigan 6-2 8-4 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
Eastern Michigan 3-5 5-7 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
Ball St. 0-8 2-10 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-1 10-3 105.7 104.5 105.8 105.3
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-3 7-5 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
Utah St. 4-4 6-6 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
Air Force 4-4 5-7 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
New Mexico 1-7 3-9 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-2 10-2 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
Fresno St. 7-1 9-4 98.9 97.6 99.8 98.8
Nevada 3-5 3-9 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
U N L V 4-4 5-7 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
Hawaii 1-8 3-9 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
San Jose St. 1-7 2-11 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
             
MWC Averages     92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 7-2 10-2 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
Stanford 7-2 9-4 120.7 119.1 120.1 120.0
Washington St. 6-3 9-3 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
Oregon 4-5 7-5 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
California 2-7 5-7 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 11-2 120.4 119.5 120.1 120.0
Utah 3-6 6-6 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
Arizona St. 6-3 7-5 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
Arizona 5-4 7-5 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
U C L A 4-5 6-6 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
Colorado 2-7 5-7 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 12-1 130.6 129.9 131.2 130.6
Missouri 4-4 7-5 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
S. Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
Kentucky 4-4 7-5 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
Florida 3-5 4-7 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
Vanderbilt 1-7 5-7 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
Tennessee 0-8 4-8 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
Auburn 7-1 10-3 129.4 127.3 129.6 128.8
L S U 6-2 9-3 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
Arkansas 1-7 4-8 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
             
SEC Averages     112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 7-1 10-2 99.3 99.4 99.3 99.3
Appalachian St. 7-1 8-4 97.7 96.5 97.9 97.4
Arkansas St. 6-2 7-4 95.0 96.1 96.0 95.7
N. Mexico St. 4-4 6-6 85.8 84.7 85.9 85.5
UL-Monroe 4-4 4-8 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
S. Alabama 3-5 4-8 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
Idaho 3-5 4-8 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
Georgia St. 5-3 6-5 80.9 81.0 80.6 80.9
UL-Lafayette 4-4 5-7 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
Georgia Southern 2-6 2-10 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
Coastal Carolina 2-6 3-9 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
Texas St. 1-7 2-10 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.8 84.5 83.8 84.1

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.1 112.0 112.6 112.6
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
5 BIG TEN 108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 98.7 98.3 98.7 98.6
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.2 85.6 85.0 84.9
11 Sun Belt 83.8 84.5 83.8 84.1

Look for our bowl and playoff spreads following next week’s Army – Navy game.

If you didn’t see our Army-Navy spread last week, it is:

Philadelphia PA PiRate Mean Bias
Army (n) Navy -0.4 -1.0 -0.3

Why the unique color purple?

This is what we call Love Purple.  You can replicate it with the RGB of 69-0-169 and the Hex Code of 4500A9.

Love purple is the official logo color of our mom and pop company in Nashville.  We are highly appreciative of all our supporters here, and we wish you a loving and joyous holiday season.

 

 

 

November 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
USC (n) Stanford -0.7 0.2 -0.6
Central Florida Memphis 3.5 5.5 4.0
Florida St. UL-Monroe 38.0 36.1 37.4
Toledo (n) Akron 16.0 13.5 17.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 14.3 14.8 15.0
Oklahoma (n) TCU 6.5 6.9 7.2
Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern -6.2 -5.9 -5.0
Georgia St. Idaho 7.5 6.3 6.5
Appy St. UL-Lafayette 15.7 13.2 15.6
Arkansas St. Troy -0.8 0.0 0.5
Georgia (n) Auburn -3.1 -1.1 -3.1
New Mexico St. South Alabama 7.9 4.7 7.8
Boise St. Fresno St. 10.6 10.5 10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n) Clemson -7.9 -6.4 -8.6
Wisconsin (n) Ohio St. -6.3 -6.7 -7.5
         
Army (n) Navy -0.4 -1.0 -0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Clemson
2 Wisconsin
3 Alabama
4 Oklahoma
5 Georgia
6 Auburn
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Penn St.
10 Miami (Fla)
11 Washington
12 USC
13 Notre Dame
14 TCU
15 Virginia Tech
16 Stanford
17 Oklahoma St.
18 Michigan St.
19 Memphis
20 Michigan
21 Washington St.
22 Northwestern
23 LSU
24 North Carolina St.
25 Iowa
26 Louisville
27 Mississippi St.
28 Boston College
29 South Florida
30 Iowa St.
31 Boise St.
32 Wake Forest
33 Toledo
34 South Carolina
35 San Diego St.
36 Oregon
37 Florida Atlantic
38 Florida St.
39 Arizona St.
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 West Virginia
43 Purdue
44 Georgia Tech
45 Kansas St.
46 Missouri
47 Arizona
48 Fresno St.
49 UCLA
50 Navy
51 Troy
52 Houston
53 Texas Tech
54 Utah
55 Army
56 Kentucky
57 Duke
58 SMU
59 Northern Illinois
60 Indiana
61 Virginia
62 North Texas
63 California
64 Ole Miss
65 Ohio
66 Pittsburgh
67 Central Michigan
68 Minnesota
69 Florida
70 Syracuse
71 Maryland
72 Wyoming
73 Marshall
74 Colorado
75 Colorado St.
76 Temple
77 Nebraska
78 Western Michigan
79 Tulane
80 Arkansas St.
81 Akron
82 Appalachian St.
83 Southern Miss.
84 Florida Int’l.
85 Vanderbilt
86 Buffalo
87 Arkansas
88 UAB
89 Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 North Carolina
92 Eastern Michigan
93 Rutgers
94 Air Force
95 Louisiana Tech
96 Middle Tennessee
97 UTSA
98 Miami (O)
99 Georgia St.
100 Cincinnati
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 Baylor
105 Massachusetts
106 East Carolina
107 New Mexico St.
108 BYU
109 Nevada
110 Connecticut
111 UL-Monroe
112 Illinois
113 Old Dominion
114 UL-Lafayette
115 Bowling Green
116 South Alabama
117 New Mexico
118 Idaho
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Georgia Southern
122 Kansas
123 Kent St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
2 Ohio St. 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
3 Auburn 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
4 Clemson 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
5 Penn St. 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
6 Georgia 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
7 Oklahoma 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
8 Washington 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
9 Wisconsin 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
10 Miami 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 Stanford 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
13 U S C 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
14 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
15 L S U 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
16 Virginia Tech 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
17 Louisville 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
18 Florida St. 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
19 Notre Dame 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
20 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
21 Michigan 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
22 Northwestern 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
23 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
24 Iowa 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
25 Memphis 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
26 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
27 Boston College 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
28 Washington St. 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
29 Mississippi St. 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
30 Texas 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
31 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
32 Wake Forest 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
33 Oregon 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
34 Duke 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
35 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Missouri 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
38 West Virginia 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
39 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
40 Utah 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
41 Michigan St. 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
42 Arizona St. 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
43 S. Carolina 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
44 Texas A&M 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
45 Boise St. 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
46 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
47 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
48 Purdue 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
49 Kentucky 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
50 Arizona 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
51 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Toledo 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 U C L A 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 Virginia 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
58 San Diego St. 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
59 Houston 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
63 Navy 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
64 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Army 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
68 Troy 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
69 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
70 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
71 Fresno St. 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
72 SMU 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
73 Ohio U 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
74 Temple 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
75 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
76 Northern Illinois 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
77 Arkansas St. 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
78 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
79 Central Michigan 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
80 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
81 Wyoming 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
82 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
83 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
84 Utah St. 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
85 Appalachian St. 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
86 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
87 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
88 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
89 Marshall 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
90 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
91 Massachusetts 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
92 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
98 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
99 Akron 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
100 N. Texas 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
101 Louisiana Tech 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
102 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
103 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
104 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
105 W. Kentucky 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
106 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
113 UL-Lafayette 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
114 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
115 UAB 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
116 UL-Monroe 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
117 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
118 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
120 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
121 Georgia Southern 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
122 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
123 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
124 Coastal Carolina 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 8-0 11-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-2 9-2 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 4-4 6-6 96.3 96.8 96.7 96.6
Connecticut 2-6 3-9 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
Cincinnati 2-6 4-8 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
East Carolina 2-6 3-9 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 7-1 10-1 113.3 112.5 114.1 113.3
Houston 5-3 7-4 102.4 102.1 102.5 102.3
Navy 4-4 6-5 100.2 100.8 100.4 100.4
SMU 4-4 7-5 97.5 98.0 97.8 97.8
Tulane 3-5 5-7 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
Tulsa 1-7 2-10 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 11-1 130.0 127.2 129.7 129.0
Louisville 4-4 8-4 117.9 116.9 117.8 117.5
Florida St. 3-5 5-6 117.1 116.1 115.7 116.3
N. Carolina St. 6-2 8-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Boston College 4-4 7-5 112.8 112.4 112.9 112.7
Wake Forest 4-4 7-5 112.2 110.5 112.3 111.7
Syracuse 2-6 4-8 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-1 10-1 122.1 120.8 121.1 121.3
Virginia Tech 5-3 9-3 118.7 118.1 118.5 118.4
Duke 3-5 6-6 110.4 109.4 109.5 109.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-6 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
Virginia 3-5 6-6 103.1 102.1 103.4 102.9
N. Carolina 1-7 3-9 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 8-1 11-1 126.3 125.0 127.3 126.2
Oklahoma St. 6-3 9-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 7-2 10-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Iowa State 5-4 7-5 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Texas 5-4 6-6 111.8 112.1 112.4 112.1
Kansas St. 5-4 7-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-4 7-5 108.4 109.0 108.5 108.6
Texas Tech 3-6 6-6 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
Baylor 1-8 1-11 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-9 1-11 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 8-1 10-2 132.0 129.9 132.3 131.4
Penn St. 7-2 10-2 129.0 127.9 129.3 128.7
Michigan 5-4 8-4 115.8 115.5 115.1 115.5
Michigan St. 7-2 9-3 107.5 108.1 108.6 108.1
Indiana 2-7 5-7 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
Maryland 2-7 4-8 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
Rutgers 3-6 4-8 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 9-0 12-0 125.7 123.2 124.8 124.6
Northwestern 7-2 9-3 115.6 114.4 115.7 115.2
Iowa 4-5 7-5 114.1 114.4 113.3 114.0
Purdue 4-5 6-6 105.4 105.3 105.9 105.5
Minnesota 2-7 5-7 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
Nebraska 3-6 4-8 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
Illinois 0-9 2-10 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 8-0 9-3 99.0 100.7 100.7 100.1
Marshall 4-4 7-5 90.9 92.3 92.4 91.9
Middle Tennessee 4-4 6-6 89.2 90.3 90.3 89.9
Florida Int’l. 5-3 7-4 87.6 88.1 88.4 88.1
W. Kentucky 4-4 6-6 87.5 87.9 88.0 87.8
Old Dominion 3-5 5-7 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
Charlotte 1-7 1-11 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-5 6-5 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
N. Texas 7-1 9-3 87.7 88.9 88.6 88.4
Louisiana Tech 4-4 6-6 87.3 88.9 88.1 88.1
Southern Miss. 6-2 8-4 87.5 88.5 88.1 88.0
UAB 6-2 8-4 81.6 81.6 83.5 82.2
Rice 1-7 1-11 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
U T E P 0-8 0-12 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-3 116.0 115.0 116.0 115.6
Army   8-3 99.8 99.8 100.1 99.9
Massachusetts   4-7 90.8 90.0 91.1 90.6
BYU   4-9 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-3 8-4 96.3 97.9 97.1 97.1
Miami (O) 4-4 5-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 6-2 7-5 87.7 89.8 88.4 88.6
Buffalo 4-4 6-6 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
Bowling Green 2-6 2-10 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
Kent St. 1-7 2-10 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 7-1 10-2 103.6 103.4 105.6 104.2
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 95.7 95.6 96.7 96.0
Western Michigan 4-4 6-6 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
Central Michigan 6-2 8-4 95.1 95.4 96.0 95.5
Eastern Michigan 3-5 5-7 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
Ball St. 0-8 2-10 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-1 9-3 106.1 104.8 106.3 105.7
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-3 7-5 95.5 94.6 94.6 94.9
Utah St. 4-4 6-6 95.0 94.3 94.7 94.7
Air Force 4-4 5-7 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
New Mexico 1-7 3-9 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 6-2 10-2 102.4 102.3 103.5 102.7
Fresno St. 7-1 9-3 98.5 97.3 99.3 98.4
Nevada 3-5 3-9 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
U N L V 4-4 5-7 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
Hawaii 1-8 3-9 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
San Jose St. 1-7 2-11 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
             
MWC Averages     92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 7-2 10-2 126.6 124.4 126.6 125.9
Stanford 7-2 9-3 120.9 119.2 120.4 120.2
Washington St. 6-3 9-3 113.3 111.2 112.8 112.4
Oregon 4-5 7-5 112.3 110.2 111.7 111.4
California 2-7 5-7 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-9 1-11 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 120.2 119.4 119.8 119.8
Utah 3-6 6-6 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3
Arizona St. 6-3 7-5 107.6 106.4 107.3 107.1
Arizona 5-4 7-5 106.2 105.0 105.1 105.4
U C L A 4-5 6-6 104.1 103.3 103.5 103.6
Colorado 2-7 5-7 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 11-1 128.2 127.8 128.6 128.2
Missouri 4-4 7-5 109.6 107.9 108.9 108.8
S. Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.5 106.8 106.5 106.9
Kentucky 4-4 7-5 106.2 105.5 104.8 105.5
Florida 3-5 4-7 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
Vanderbilt 1-7 5-7 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
Tennessee 0-8 4-8 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-1 11-1 135.6 132.3 134.3 134.1
Auburn 7-1 10-2 131.3 128.9 131.7 130.6
L S U 6-2 9-3 119.1 116.7 119.6 118.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 112.4 112.4 112.0 112.3
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5 107.8 105.9 106.9 106.9
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
Arkansas 1-7 4-8 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
             
SEC Averages     111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 6-1 9-2 99.1 99.2 98.9 99.1
Arkansas St. 6-1 7-3 95.2 96.3 96.4 96.0
Appalachian St. 6-1 7-4 94.8 93.6 94.8 94.4
N. Mexico St. 3-4 5-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
Georgia St. 5-2 6-4 83.1 82.9 82.9 83.0
UL-Lafayette 4-3 5-6 82.2 83.4 82.1 82.6
UL-Monroe 4-4 4-7 82.1 83.0 81.3 82.1
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 81.0 83.0 81.2 81.7
Georgia Southern 2-5 2-9 80.9 82.0 80.4 81.1
Idaho 2-5 3-8 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.7 74.1 73.4 73.4
Texas St. 1-7 2-10 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.2 112.0 112.6 112.6
2 SEC 111.9 110.6 111.3 111.3
3 BIG 12 109.6 109.8 109.8 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.6 109.2 109.3
5 BIG TEN 108.5 108.3 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.0
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.0 92.0 92.1 92.1
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.9 84.6 83.9 84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC SMU Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Arizona St.
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC Houston Northern Illinois
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Temple Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC UAB Ohio U
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [Duke] [Iowa St.]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Marshall]
Dollar General MAC SBC Toledo Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Texas Tech Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Boston College [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 North Carolina St. Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Utah St.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Notre Dame Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Virginia Tech Kentucky
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Wake Forest Arizona
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Iowa [UCLA]
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. New Mexico St.
Cotton At-large At-large Washington Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Louisville South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Va. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large USC Penn St.
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Alabama
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan LSU
Peach At-large At-large Auburn Memphis
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Playoff Semi-final Wisconsin Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Clemson Georgia
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Oklahoma Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

November 21, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 21-25, 2017

Ugh!  After a nice streak of winning weeks to get us into the black, albeit by a sliver, our picks wore the collar last week.  Now, we are 9% in the red with just a couple weeks left to go to try to make it three consecutive winning seasons.  Boycotting the NFL picks has really hurt us this year, but that had to be done.

Maybe with 5 picks this week, we can hit on something that we have not been able to do well in the last few years–hit big on rivalry week.  In past years, we have played it safe and issued only one or two parlays on this week.  When a 2-9 team plays its 9-2 rival, the outcome isn’t as cut and dry as the week before when 2-8 played 8-2 in a non-rivalry game.

We only went with five games to throw a lot of darts on the board and hope we can somehow come out with a high enough score to win.  We need to win any three of these parlays to put us back in the black for the year, but winning three of five during rivalry week is crazy.  So, if we do, it is more pure dumb luck than our strategy.

As always, this is just an exercise for fun among one PiRate Captain and his 5 lasses.

Date
Nov 21-25
#1 @ +147  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Kent St.
Florida Int’l. Western Ky.
   
#2 @ +137  
Must Win Must Lose
Texas Texas Tech
Tennessee Vanderbilt
   
#3 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
La.-Lafayette Georgia Southern
Florida St. Florida
Clemson South Carolina
   
#4 @ +154  
Must Win Must Lose
North Texas Rice
Middle Tenn. Old Dominion
Alabama Auburn
Wisconsin Minnesota
   
#5 @ +156  
Must Win Must Lose
Eastern Mich. Bowling Green
Georgia Georgia Tech
Northwestern Illinois
Virginia Tech Virginia
San Diego St. New Mexico

 

November 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 21-25, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Kent St. 16.2 16.9 16.6
Eastern Michigan Bowling Green 17.7 16.8 17.7
Ball St. Miami (O) -20.5 -20.5 -21.0
Mississippi St. Ole Miss 11.6 12.9 12.7
TCU Baylor 24.2 21.2 24.4
Toledo Western Michigan 7.5 8.1 8.3
Virginia Virginia Tech -13.7 -14.2 -13.2
Central Michigan Northern Illinois 1.1 1.8 0.8
Buffalo Ohio U -9.4 -8.6 -8.4
Arkansas Missouri -7.9 -6.6 -7.6
San Diego St. New Mexico 20.5 20.7 21.2
Houston Navy 4.2 3.6 3.9
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) -16.3 -14.9 -15.8
Nebraska Iowa -9.3 -9.1 -9.0
Troy Texas St. 24.9 23.0 25.2
Central Florida South Florida 6.8 8.8 7.8
Florida Int’l. Western Kentucky -2.7 -2.2 -2.7
Texas Texas Tech 12.5 12.7 13.8
UCLA California 1.6 3.1 2.6
Cincinnati Connecticut 2.6 2.6 3.2
Syracuse Boston College -1.6 -3.0 -2.2
Rutgers Michigan St. -8.2 -9.5 -9.5
Purdue Indiana -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
Michigan Ohio St. -13.6 -11.4 -14.8
North Carolina St. North Carolina 14.0 14.1 14.7
Wake Forest Duke 5.9 4.8 7.1
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -6.8 -5.8 -6.5
Tennessee Vanderbilt 4.4 3.6 3.9
Kansas St. Iowa St. 2.3 2.1 1.3
Kentucky Louisville -6.0 -5.9 -7.1
Georgia Tech Georgia -13.3 -15.3 -15.0
Maryland Penn St. -24.0 -21.5 -24.8
Illinois Northwestern -21.9 -20.0 -23.1
Rice North Texas -12.7 -12.6 -13.2
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -27.1 -26.5 -28.5
Air Force Utah St. -0.3 0.9 -0.3
Marshall Southern Miss. 8.0 8.3 9.2
Nevada UNLV 3.8 4.0 4.7
Washington Washington St. 11.8 11.8 12.1
San Jose St. Wyoming -26.8 -25.4 -27.0
Utah Colorado 2.7 4.6 4.7
Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas St. -8.3 -8.7 -10.3
Middle Tennessee Old Dominion 6.9 5.8 7.7
Minnesota Wisconsin -19.4 -16.0 -19.2
Stanford Notre Dame 5.3 4.8 4.3
South Carolina Clemson -18.2 -16.7 -18.4
LSU Texas A&M 11.2 11.1 12.2
Fresno St. Boise St. -8.2 -7.7 -8.0
SMU Tulane 6.9 7.1 6.8
Oklahoma St. Kansas 41.7 37.8 43.5
Arizona St. Arizona 0.6 1.2 1.3
Oklahoma West Virginia 18.4 16.8 19.0
Oregon Oregon St. 16.6 14.9 17.3
New Mexico St. Idaho 9.9 7.5 9.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Georgia Southern 8.3 7.9 9.0
Tulsa Temple 5.1 3.9 4.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA -0.2 -0.5 -0.5
Memphis East Carolina 27.0 24.9 27.7
UAB UTEP 16.1 13.1 17.8
Auburn Alabama -7.3 -5.9 -6.0
Florida Florida St. -8.9 -8.4 -7.9
Hawaii BYU -3.4 -2.2 -3.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Retro Rankings

Based on what the teams have done for the entire season and not forward looking

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 TCU
14 Washington
15 Mississippi St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Washington St.
18 Michigan
19 Oklahoma St.
20 Memphis
21 Michigan St.
22 Stanford
23 Northwestern
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Wake Forest
28 Iowa St.
29 Iowa
30 South Florida
31 South Carolina
32 Boston College
33 Texas A&M
34 Louisville
35 Toledo
36 San Diego St.
37 Texas
38 Florida Atlantic
39 Oregon
40 Georgia Tech
41 West Virginia
42 Arizona
43 Navy
44 Florida St.
45 Arizona St.
46 Purdue
47 Kentucky
48 Northern Illinois
49 Missouri
50 Fresno St.
51 Kansas St.
52 Indiana
53 UCLA
54 Troy
55 Houston
56 Army
57 Ohio
58 Texas Tech
59 Virginia
60 SMU
61 Utah
62 California
63 North Texas
64 Duke
65 Florida
66 Wyoming
67 Syracuse
68 Maryland
69 Minnesota
70 Marshall
71 Ole Miss
72 Colorado
73 Western Michigan
74 Nebraska
75 Colorado St.
76 Central Michigan
77 Tulane
78 Pittsburgh
79 Utah St.
80 Arkansas St.
81 Temple
82 Tennessee
83 Akron
84 Arkansas
85 Southern Miss.
86 Florida Int’l.
87 Appalachian St.
88 North Carolina
89 Rutgers
90 UAB
91 Vanderbilt
92 UTSA
93 Georgia St.
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Buffalo
96 Air Force
97 Western Kentucky
98 Louisiana Tech
99 Middle Tennessee
100 Miami (O)
101 UNLV
102 Tulsa
103 Cincinnati
104 Connecticut
105 East Carolina
106 Massachusetts
107 Old Dominion
108 UL-Monroe
109 UL-Lafayette
110 New Mexico St.
111 Baylor
112 South Alabama
113 Illinois
114 BYU
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico
117 Idaho
118 Oregon St.
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Coastal Carolina
124 Georgia Southern
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

PiRate Ratings For This Week

Forward Looking Predictive Ratings totally unrelated to rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
2 Ohio St. 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
3 Auburn 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
4 Clemson 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
5 Georgia 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
6 Oklahoma 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
7 Penn St. 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
8 Miami 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
9 Washington 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
10 Wisconsin 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
13 U S C 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
14 Stanford 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
15 Virginia Tech 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
16 L S U 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
17 Notre Dame 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
18 Florida St. 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
19 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
20 Louisville 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
21 Michigan 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
22 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
23 Washington St. 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
24 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
25 Texas 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
26 Northwestern 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
27 Wake Forest 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
28 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
29 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
30 Iowa 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
31 Georgia Tech 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
32 Memphis 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
33 West Virginia 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
34 Boston College 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
35 Missouri 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Texas A&M 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
38 Duke 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
39 S. Carolina 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
40 Oregon 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
41 Kentucky 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
43 Arizona 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
44 Indiana 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
45 Utah 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
46 Arizona St. 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
47 Florida 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
48 Pittsburgh 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
49 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
50 Colorado 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
51 Purdue 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
52 Syracuse 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
53 California 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
54 Ole Miss 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
55 U C L A 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Texas Tech 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
57 Virginia 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
58 San Diego St. 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
59 Toledo 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Houston 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
62 Minnesota 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
63 Navy 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
64 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
65 Florida Atlantic 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
66 Army 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
67 Tennessee 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
68 Ohio U 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
69 Wyoming 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
70 Nebraska 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
74 SMU 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
75 Vanderbilt 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
76 Western Michigan 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
77 Fresno St. 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
79 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
80 Tulsa 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
81 Troy 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
84 Utah St. 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
85 Tulane 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
86 Temple 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
87 Oregon St. 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
88 Rutgers 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
89 Appalachian St. 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
90 Marshall 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
91 Air Force 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
92 W. Kentucky 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
93 Massachusetts 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
94 U T S A 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Nevada 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
97 Illinois 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
98 BYU 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
99 Akron 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
100 N. Texas 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
101 Middle Tennessee 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
102 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
103 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
104 U N L V 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
105 Louisiana Tech 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
106 East Carolina 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Florida Int’l. 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
109 Connecticut 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
110 Cincinnati 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
111 New Mexico 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
112 UL-Lafayette 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
113 Georgia St. 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
114 Old Dominion 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
115 UL-Monroe 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
116 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
117 Hawaii 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
118 UAB 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
120 Bowling Green 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
121 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
122 Georgia Southern 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
125 Rice 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
126 Coastal Carolina 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
127 Charlotte 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
128 San Jose St. 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
129 U T E P 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 7-0 10-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-1 9-1 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 3-4 5-6 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
East Carolina 2-5 3-8 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
Connecticut 2-5 3-8 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
Cincinnati 1-6 3-8 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 6-1 9-1 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
Houston 4-3 6-4 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
Navy 4-3 6-4 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
SMU 3-4 6-5 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
Tulsa 1-6 2-9 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
Tulane 3-4 5-6 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 10-1 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
Florida St. 3-5 4-6 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
N. Carolina St. 5-2 7-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Louisville 4-4 7-4 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
Wake Forest 4-3 7-4 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
Boston College 3-4 6-5 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
Syracuse 2-5 4-7 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-0 10-0 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
Virginia Tech 4-3 8-3 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-5 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
Duke 2-5 5-6 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
Pittsburgh 2-5 4-7 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
Virginia 3-4 6-5 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
N. Carolina 1-6 3-8 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 7-1 10-1 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
Oklahoma St. 5-3 8-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 6-2 9-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Texas 5-3 6-5 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
Iowa State 5-3 7-4 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Kansas St. 4-4 6-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-3 7-4 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
Texas Tech 2-6 5-6 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
Baylor 1-7 1-10 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-8 1-10 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 9-2 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
Penn St. 6-2 9-2 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
Michigan 5-3 8-3 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
Indiana 2-6 5-6 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
Michigan St. 6-2 8-3 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
Maryland 2-6 4-7 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
Rutgers 3-5 4-7 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 8-0 11-0 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
Northwestern 6-2 8-3 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
Iowa 3-5 6-5 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
Purdue 3-5 5-6 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
Minnesota 2-6 5-6 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
Nebraska 3-5 4-7 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
Illinois 0-8 2-9 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 7-0 8-3 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
Marshall 4-3 7-4 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
W. Kentucky 4-3 6-5 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
Middle Tennessee 3-4 5-6 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
Florida Int’l. 4-3 6-4 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
Old Dominion 3-4 5-6 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
Charlotte 1-6 1-10 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-4 6-4 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
N. Texas 6-1 8-3 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
Southern Miss. 5-2 7-4 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
Louisiana Tech 3-4 5-6 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
UAB 5-2 7-4 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
Rice 1-6 1-10 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
U T E P 0-7 0-11 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-2 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
Army   8-3 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
Massachusetts   4-7 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
BYU   3-9 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
             
Indep. Averages     99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-2 8-3 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
Miami (O) 3-4 4-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 5-2 6-5 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
Buffalo 3-4 5-6 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
Bowling Green 2-5 2-9 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
Kent St. 1-6 2-9 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-1 9-2 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
Western Michigan 4-3 6-5 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
Northern Illinois 6-1 8-3 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
Eastern Michigan 2-5 4-7 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
Central Michigan 5-2 7-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-7 2-9 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-0 9-2 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-2 7-4 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
Utah St. 4-3 6-5 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
Air Force 3-4 4-7 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
New Mexico 1-6 3-8 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-2 9-2 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
Fresno St. 6-1 8-3 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
Nevada 2-5 2-9 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
U N L V 4-3 5-6 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
Hawaii 1-7 3-8 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
San Jose St. 0-7 1-11 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 6-2 9-2 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
Stanford 7-2 8-3 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
Oregon 3-5 6-5 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
California 2-6 5-6 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-8 1-10 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
Arizona 5-3 7-4 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
Utah 2-6 5-6 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
Arizona St. 5-3 6-5 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
U C L A 3-5 5-6 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 10-1 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
Missouri 3-4 6-5 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
S. Carolina 5-3 8-3 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
Kentucky 4-4 7-4 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
Florida 3-5 4-6 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
Tennessee 0-7 4-7 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
Vanderbilt 0-7 4-7 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 11-0 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
Auburn 6-1 9-2 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
L S U 5-2 8-3 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
Mississippi St. 4-3 8-3 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
Texas A&M 4-3 7-4 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
Ole Miss 2-5 5-6 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
Arkansas 1-6 4-7 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
Arkansas St. 5-1 6-3 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
N. Mexico St. 2-4 4-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
UL-Lafayette 4-2 5-5 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-6 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
Idaho 2-4 3-7 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Georgia Southern 1-5 1-9 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
Texas St. 1-6 2-9 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC La. Tech UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Houston Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Utah St.] Marshall
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Int’l. Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [UAB] [UNLV]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UCLA] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Utah] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Arizona
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Southern Miss.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Washington
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Wake Forest South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Arizona St.
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Indiana Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 NC St. Miss. St.
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Penn St. USC
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Notre Dame
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Memphis TCU
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Northwestern Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Miami (Fla.) Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Championship Games and Bowl Eligibles By Conference

If you are a fan of a team that will finish 5-6 or 5-7, you can forget your team playing in a bowl with a losing record this season.  In fact, we project two bowl eligible teams to miss out on all the fun this year, as we project 80 teams to be bowl eligible this season.

American Athletic

The UCF-USF winner this week will face Memphis for the conference championship.  It looks like UCF and Memphis will meet in Orlando in a rematch game.  UCF won the first one convincingly, but Memphis is several points better now than then.  The winner of this game almost assuredly plays in the New Year’s Six Bowl as the Group of 5 Representative, and it will more than likely be at the Peach Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy, Houston, SMU)

5-Wins: Temple and Tulane

Temple must win at Tulsa, which is doable but less than 50-50.

Tulane must win at SMU, which is also doable but less than 50-50 and less then Temple’s chances.

Atlantic Coast 

Clemson will play Miami (Fla.) in Charlotte.  The winner has about a 92% chance of gaining a Playoff spot, while the loser will most likely get an Orange Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville, NC St., Boston College, Miami, Va. Tech, Virginia

5-Wins: Georgia Tech and Duke

Georgia Tech would have to pull off the monumental upset of Georgia, which they may have about a 3-5% chance of doing.

Duke must win at Wake Forest, and the Demon Deacons are playing like a top 20 team.  The Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech, so they could be peaking at the right time.

4-Wins: Florida St.

The Seminoles were able to reschedule their cancelled hurricane game with UL-Monroe, and now they can become bowl eligible by beating Florida and ULM.  We believe their chances to get to 6-6 are about 70-75% in their favor.

Big 12

Oklahoma has clinched the top seed in the renewal of the Big 12 Championship Game.  TCU needs to beat Baylor this week to get the number two seed.  If the Horn Frogs croak against the Bears, then Oklahoma St. will get the bid with a win over hapless Kansas.  There is a very remote chance that Iowa St. could still get in, but it would require too many things to take place.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (Oklahoma, TCU, Okla. St., Iowa St., Texas, West Virginia, Kansas St.)

5-Wins: Texas Tech

Texas Tech closes the season at Texas, and we believe the Longhorns will handle the Red Raiders and most likely end the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock.

Big Ten

Wisconsin and Ohio State have clinched their divisions and will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Badgers’ defense may be up to the task to handle an inconsistent Buckeye offense.  If so, UW is Playoff-bound.  A Buckeye win opens the door for a one-loss Miami or one-loss Alabama team to get this bid, or if Miami and Alabama are unbeaten, there will be a big controversy over the #4 seed between a 2-loss Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Notre Dame, and maybe even an undefeated UCF if they win their last two games.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 8) (Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa)

5-Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota.

Indiana and Purdue play for the Old Oaken Bucket and a bowl bid, as the winner will be 6-6.

Minnesota must beat undefeated Wisconsin to finish 6-6.  With the Gophers’ offense struggling, and the Badgers defense peaking, UW could win this won in an ugly fashion in the neighborhood of 20-6.

Conference USA

This conference is going to strike it rich this bowl season with a possible 10 teams playing in December.

First, Florida Atlantic and North Texas will square off in one of the potentially best championship games in this league’s history.  Win or lose, we are hearing from sources that the Boca Raton Bowl would love to invite hometown team FAU.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (guaranteed to have 9) (Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l., Marshall, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA)

5-Wins: Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion play each other in Murfreesboro this week, so the winner will become bowl eligible.

Louisiana Tech hosts UTSA with a slumping offense, and we give the Bulldogs a 70% chance of winning this game and becoming the 10th bowl eligible CUSA team.  There will be slots available possibly for all 10 teams, and it is possible that two CUSA could face off in a bowl.

Independents

Army is 8-3 with the Navy game remaining.  The Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl bound.

Notre Dame actually counts with the ACC teams, so they are part of the ACC package, and we believe the Irish will  be enjoying Oranges this year, but only if they get by Stanford this week,.

Mid-American

Akron beat Ohio to win the Eastern Division title.  The Zips will play Toledo or Northern Illinois.  TU can clinch the Western Division title with a win at home against Western Michigan or a Northern Illinois loss at Central Michigan.  NIU can win if they beat CMU and WMU beats Toledo.

This league will receive an extra bid and possibly two extra bids.  See Below

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Akron, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan)

5-Wins: Buffalo

Buffalo hosts Ohio U this week, and a Bulls win will give them a 6-6 record.  There is a catch.  Buffalo most likely needs Louisiana Tech or Florida State to lose this week to guarantee a decent shot at a bowl.  We have the Bulls as team #79 in a 78-team bowl field.  There is another little possibility that could help Buffalo get over the top ahead of another bowl eligible team.  The MAC has two secondary bowl agreements, with the Quick Lane and the Foster Farms bowls.

Toledo at 10-2 might be attractive enough for the Foster Farms Bowl to invite the Rockets west to face Oregon, Stanford, Washington, or California.  The Quick Lane is most likely going to need a MAC team as well, so Buffalo could sneak in to a bowl through this back door ahead of a 10th CUSA team.

Mountain West

Here is where a conference championship game will not be as exciting as it should be, unless something really interesting takes place this week.  Boise State and Fresno State have clinched berths in the MWC Championship Game, but the two teams close out the regular season facing each other, so it will be an immediate rematch.  The Las Vegas Bowl bid goes to the winner of the second game.  Even if the Conference Champion loses by 50 points this week and wins by 1 next week, that team gets the Las Vegas Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Boise St., Colorado St., Wyoming, Utah St., Fresno St., San Diego St.)

5-Wins: UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels must win their rivalry game against Nevada, and they must do it in Reno.  UNLV has about a 50-50 shot at pulling it off, giving the MWC 7 bowl teams for 5 bowls.  Two at-large slots will be waiting for the 6th and 7th teams.

Pac-12

USC has clinched the South Division, and the Trojans hold a very minute chance of sneaking into the Playoffs.  More than likely, they are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game for a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

The North Division is still up for grabs between Washington State and Stanford.  If Washington State wins the Apple Cup, then the Pirate Mike Leach will have his team in the Championship Game.  If Washington wins, then Stanford takes the treasure away from the Pirate.

The bigger news in the Pac-12 is the firing of UCLA coach Jim Mora, Jr.  The Bruins still have a game to go at home against California, and the winner will be bowl eligible.  UCLA is actually hoping it can win the Chip Kelly Bowl.  Kelly is rumored to be headed to Westwood, but it is not confirmed.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 9) (Washington St., Stanford, Washington, Oregon, USC, Arizona St., Arizona)

5-Win Teams: California, UCLA, Utah, Colorado

Cal plays at UCLA, and the Bears hope they can swim with the Fisch’s.  Jedd Fisch will be UCLA coach for one or two games.

Colorado visits Utah, so the winner of that game will also be bowl eligible.

Look for the Pac-12 to place 2 at-large teams in bowls back east, most likely the two winners this week.

Southeastern

Normally a league with double digit bowl participants, the SEC is only going to have 9 teams playing in the postseason.

Georgia is waiting for the winner of the Iron Bowl to face off in the SEC Championship Game.  Auburn has become the sexy choice to knock off the number one Crimson Tide, but us old Buccaneers believe this just won’t happen.  We have Alabama set to be the top seed in the Playoffs, hosting team number four in the Sugar Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 9 (Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M)

5-Wins: None

Sun Belt

They have 12 teams in this league, but there is no championship game in the SBC.  The Sun Belt is most likely to have extra teams, including team number 80, or the second bowl eligible team left out of all the fun.

There are two weeks left in the SBC regular season, so there are some 4-6 teams still alive in the bowl hunt.

Bowl Eligible: 4 (Troy, Georgia St., Arkansas St., Appalachian St.)

5-Wins: UL-Lafayette

The Ragin’ Cajuns have two games left and need to win just one to most likely get their New Orleans Bowl bid that they always seem to get whenever they are bowl eligible.  ULL hosts 1-9 Georgia Southern this week and should secure their sixth win.  They finish at Appy State, where they are most likely to lose.

4-Wins: UL-Monroe and New Mexico St.

UL-Monroe has less than 0.5% chance of beating Arkansas St. at home this week and then winning at Florida St. the week after.  So, the Warhawks are basically out of the picture.

New Mexico St. has at least a 50-50 chance of finishing the season with wins over Idaho and South Alabama, both games in Las Cruces.  However, the Aggies do not have a great shot at getting into their first bowl since the 1960 Sun Bowl.  NMSU is leaving the Sun Belt and will become an independent next year.  The SBC has a history of being a tad bush league by shunning teams leaving their conference.  The Aggies have already told the league they can only accept bids to bowls close to home, and we believe they will get to spend the holidays very close to home, because they will not be invited to a bowl if they finish 6-6.  Of course, if two from Louisiana Tech, Buffalo, and Florida State lose, and if Duke loses to Wake Forest and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, then the Aggies will get an invitation at 6-6.  Whether or not they accept it, we cannot predict.

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have a festive Thanksgiving holiday.  Don’t let your tummy be the biggest loser this week.  Pace yourself and try to get some exercise.

Our schedule will be a little different this week.  We are putting out our Monday edition today on Sunday.  We will have both the NFL ratings and Money Line picks on Tuesday, and then we will return next Sunday night or Monday morning.

Thank You to all our followers.  You have made 2017 a record year for PiRate Rating readership.  A lot of you came on board back during March Madness, because we were very lucky to successfully pick all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Our basketball coverage will return just after New Year’s, as our ratings need all the teams to play 8 games before they make any sense.

 

November 13, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 14-18, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Ohio -10.3 -9.0 -10.9
Kent St. Central Michigan -18.5 -17.4 -19.0
Bowling Green Toledo -17.1 -16.1 -18.2
Miami (O) Eastern Michigan -4.6 -2.7 -3.9
Northern Illinois Western Michigan 1.2 1.9 1.4
Ball St. Buffalo -16.9 -17.1 -18.3
South Florida Tulsa 18.3 17.4 19.4
Western Kentucky Middle Tennessee 7.0 5.8 6.8
New Mexico UNLV 1.8 0.1 2.4
Indiana Rutgers 8.3 9.0 8.7
Georgia Kentucky 19.6 20.5 20.7
East Carolina Cincinnati -3.0 -3.2 -4.3
Duke Georgia Tech -7.3 -5.2 -7.3
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 17.3 16.8 17.6
Temple Central Florida -15.1 -16.0 -15.9
Wake Forest North Carolina St. -2.4 -3.5 -2.5
Louisville Syracuse 6.2 6.8 6.7
Northwestern Minnesota 7.8 5.8 8.5
Michigan St. Maryland 9.6 9.2 11.4
West Virginia Texas 2.3 2.3 2.3
Kansas Oklahoma -40.0 -35.4 -42.2
Wyoming Fresno St. 8.6 8.2 7.4
Boise St. Air Force 17.1 15.2 17.3
Utah St. Hawaii 12.0 10.2 11.9
Old Dominion Rice 14.6 15.6 14.7
Southern Miss. Charlotte 15.0 13.8 15.2
BYU Massachusetts 3.3 4.0 2.7
UTEP Louisiana Tech -14.5 -13.4 -15.0
Georgia Southern South Alabama -9.1 -9.7 -9.9
Texas Tech TCU -11.5 -9.8 -12.3
Iowa Purdue 13.0 12.9 12.2
Oregon Arizona 0.6 0.5 0.4
Ohio St. Illinois 46.7 43.4 48.1
Florida UAB 27.3 23.8 24.4
Oregon St. Arizona St. -7.9 -7.5 -9.1
Memphis SMU 13.2 12.2 13.4
Miami (Fla.) Virginia 27.4 26.4 26.8
Baylor Iowa St. -11.6 -10.3 -12.7
Arkansas Mississippi St. -12.9 -13.5 -13.5
Vanderbilt Missouri -6.6 -5.4 -7.2
Washington Utah 25.1 21.7 25.4
Auburn UL-Monroe 49.5 46.6 50.5
Oklahoma St. Kansas St. 16.5 15.4 17.3
Colorado St. San Jose St. 35.2 33.9 35.9
Penn St. Nebraska 32.1 29.9 33.3
Tennessee LSU -14.4 -13.8 -16.5
Notre Dame Navy 20.9 18.7 21.3
Tulane Houston -7.7 -6.9 -7.7
UL-Lafayatte New Mexico St. -2.4 0.6 -2.7
Idaho Coastal Carolina 13.8 13.6 13.9
North Texas Army -12.1 -10.2 -11.8
Arkansas St. Texas St. 24.2 23.1 26.0
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 13.4 15.1 14.2
Boston College (n) Connecticut 26.7 24.4 26.5
UTSA Marshall 0.3 1.3 -0.5
Ole Miss Texas A&M -1.0 -0.4 -1.3
Wisconsin Michigan 11.1 8.6 10.6
USC UCLA 17.8 17.5 18.3
Stanford California 16.9 17.3 18.3
San Diego St. Nevada 16.1 14.2 15.8

FBS vs. FCS Games

Home Visitor PiRate
Clemson Citadel 50.0
Alabama Mercer 49.0
Florida St. Delaware St. 50.0
North Carolina Western Carolina 24.0
South Carolina Wofford 27.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Michigan
15 TCU
16 Washington
17 Washington St.
18 Mississippi St.
19 North Carolina St.
20 Memphis
21 Virginia Tech
22 Michigan St.
23 Stanford
24 Iowa
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Northwestern
28 Wake Forest
29 Iowa St.
30 South Florida
31 Arizona
32 South Carolina
33 West Virginia
34 Georgia Tech
35 Boston College
36 San Diego St.
37 Toledo
38 Houston
39 Louisville
40 Texas A&M
41 Texas
42 Navy
43 Florida Atlantic
44 Kentucky
45 Army
46 Arizona St.
47 Ohio
48 Oregon
49 Florida St.
50 Northern Illinois
51 SMU
52 UCLA
53 Texas Tech
54 Troy
55 Missouri
56 Utah
57 California
58 Syracuse
59 Fresno St.
60 Wyoming
61 Marshall
62 Purdue
63 Virginia
64 Minnesota
65 Ole Miss
66 Kansas St.
67 Indiana
68 North Texas
69 Maryland
70 Western Michigan
71 Florida
72 Colorado
73 Nebraska
74 Colorado St.
75 Duke
76 Central Michigan
77 Pittsburgh
78 Temple
79 Tennessee
80 Arkansas St.
81 Rutgers
82 Utah St.
83 Arkansas
84 Florida Int’l.
85 UAB
86 Vanderbilt
87 Tulane
88 Akron
89 Southern Miss.
90 Appalachian St.
91 North Carolina
92 Georgia St.
93 Air Force
94 Middle Tennessee
95 Eastern Michigan
96 Buffalo
97 Miami (O)
98 UTSA
99 Cincinnati
100 Louisiana Tech
101 Western Kentucky
102 Tulsa
103 UNLV
104 New Mexico St.
105 South Alabama
106 Connecticut
107 Old Dominion
108 BYU
109 UL-Monroe
110 Baylor
111 Massachusetts
112 Illinois
113 Nevada
114 UL-Lafayette
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 Oregon St.
118 East Carolina
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Rice
125 Charlotte
126 Texas St.
127 Coastal Carolina
128 Georgia Southern
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

 

 

PiRate Predictive Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.6 134.0 136.4 136.0
2 Ohio St. 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
3 Auburn 129.0 126.9 129.3 128.4
4 Clemson 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
5 Penn St. 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
6 Washington 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
7 Georgia 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
8 Miami 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
9 Oklahoma 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
10 Oklahoma St. 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
11 Wisconsin 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
12 Stanford 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
13 U S C 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
14 Virginia Tech 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
15 T C U 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
16 Notre Dame 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
17 L S U 117.5 115.3 117.8 116.9
18 N. Carolina St. 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
19 Michigan 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
20 Florida St. 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
21 Mississippi St. 114.5 114.5 114.6 114.5
22 Georgia Tech 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
23 Washington St. 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
24 Central Florida 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
25 Iowa State 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
26 Iowa 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
27 Texas 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
28 Louisville 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
29 Wake Forest 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
30 West Virginia 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
31 Northwestern 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
32 South Florida 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
33 Boston College 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
34 Kansas St. 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
35 Memphis 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
36 S. Carolina 109.1 108.1 108.3 108.5
37 Arizona 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
38 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
39 Kentucky 109.0 108.0 107.9 108.3
40 Texas A&M 109.1 107.1 108.3 108.2
41 Missouri 108.5 106.6 107.8 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
43 Oregon 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
44 Florida 106.2 105.6 105.4 105.7
45 Minnesota 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
46 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
47 Arizona St. 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
48 Duke 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
49 Pittsburgh 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
50 Colorado 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
51 Utah 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
52 Texas Tech 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
53 Ole Miss 105.1 103.7 104.0 104.3
54 California 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
55 Houston 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
56 Indiana 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
57 Purdue 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
58 U C L A 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
59 San Diego St. 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
60 Virginia 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
61 N. Carolina 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
62 Toledo 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
63 Colo. State 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
64 Army 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
65 Navy 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
66 Wyoming 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
67 Ohio U 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
68 Vanderbilt 99.9 99.1 98.7 99.2
69 Florida Atlantic 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
70 Tennessee 100.1 98.5 98.3 99.0
71 SMU 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
73 Baylor 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
74 Arkansas 98.6 97.9 98.1 98.2
75 Western Michigan 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
76 Nebraska 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
77 Rutgers 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
78 Northern Illinois 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
79 Eastern Michigan 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
80 Arkansas St. 94.5 95.7 95.7 95.3
81 Troy 95.2 95.4 94.8 95.1
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Fresno St. 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
84 Temple 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
85 Tulsa 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
86 Oregon St. 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
87 Air Force 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
88 Tulane 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
89 Appalachian St. 93.3 92.1 93.1 92.8
90 Marshall 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
91 Utah St. 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
92 W. Kentucky 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
93 U T S A 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
94 Massachusetts 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
95 BYU 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
96 Nevada 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
97 Miami (O) 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
98 Illinois 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
99 Cincinnati 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
100 Akron 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
101 N. Mexico St. 87.6 86.0 87.9 87.2
102 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
103 Middle Tennessee 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
104 U N L V 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
105 N. Texas 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
106 S. Alabama 85.7 87.7 85.9 86.4
107 Louisiana Tech 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
108 Florida Int’l. 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
109 New Mexico 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
110 Connecticut 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
111 Hawaii 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
113 Old Dominion 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
114 Georgia St. 84.0 83.8 84.0 84.0
115 UAB 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
116 East Carolina 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
117 UL-Lafayette 82.3 83.6 82.1 82.7
118 Kansas 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
119 UL-Monroe 82.5 83.3 81.7 82.5
120 Bowling Green 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
121 Idaho 81.1 82.2 81.9 81.7
122 Georgia Southern 74.6 76.0 74.0 74.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.4 75.5 72.7 73.9
125 Charlotte 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
126 Rice 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
127 Coastal Carolina 70.7 72.1 71.4 71.4
128 U T E P 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
129 San Jose St. 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 6-0 9-0 112.7 114.1 113.8 113.6
South Florida 5-1 8-1 110.1 109.0 110.7 109.9
Temple 3-3 5-5 94.6 95.1 95.0 94.9
Cincinnati 1-5 3-7 87.9 89.5 89.0 88.8
Connecticut 2-5 3-7 84.2 86.2 84.3 84.9
East Carolina 1-5 2-8 82.4 83.9 82.2 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 5-1 8-1 108.8 108.1 109.4 108.7
Houston 4-2 6-3 103.4 103.0 103.6 103.3
Navy 4-3 6-3 100.3 101.1 100.4 100.6
SMU 3-3 6-4 98.5 98.9 99.0 98.8
Tulsa 1-5 2-8 94.8 94.6 94.3 94.6
Tulane 2-4 4-6 92.7 93.1 92.9 92.9
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.0 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 9-1 128.1 125.6 127.6 127.1
N. Carolina St. 5-1 7-3 116.9 116.1 116.9 116.6
Florida St. 3-5 3-6 116.2 115.3 114.7 115.4
Louisville 3-4 6-4 112.3 111.4 112.1 111.9
Wake Forest 3-3 6-4 112.5 110.6 112.5 111.8
Boston College 3-4 5-5 109.9 109.6 109.9 109.8
Syracuse 2-4 4-6 109.1 107.6 108.4 108.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 6-0 9-0 126.3 124.4 125.7 125.5
Virginia Tech 3-3 7-3 119.6 118.9 119.5 119.3
Georgia Tech 4-3 5-4 115.5 113.0 114.3 114.3
Duke 1-5 4-6 105.7 105.3 104.5 105.2
Pittsburgh 2-4 4-6 105.3 105.1 104.9 105.1
Virginia 3-3 6-4 101.8 101.0 101.9 101.6
N. Carolina 1-6 2-8 102.1 101.2 101.2 101.5
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.8 112.4 112.4
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 6-1 9-1 125.0 123.7 125.8 124.8
Oklahoma St. 5-2 8-2 123.1 122.2 123.7 123.0
T C U 5-2 8-2 118.6 116.9 118.9 118.1
Iowa State 4-3 5-5 112.6 112.6 113.7 113.0
Texas 4-3 5-5 112.1 112.4 112.6 112.4
West Virginia 5-2 7-3 111.4 111.7 111.9 111.7
Kansas St. 3-4 5-5 109.6 109.8 109.4 109.6
Texas Tech 2-5 5-5 104.6 104.5 104.1 104.4
Baylor 1-6 1-9 98.0 99.4 98.0 98.5
Kansas 0-7 1-9 81.9 85.3 80.6 82.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-1 8-2 132.7 130.4 133.1 132.1
Penn St. 5-2 8-2 126.6 125.2 127.1 126.3
Michigan 5-2 8-2 115.7 115.7 115.0 115.5
Michigan St. 5-2 7-3 104.9 105.8 106.0 105.6
Indiana 1-6 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.2 103.1
Maryland 2-5 4-6 98.3 99.6 97.6 98.5
Rutgers 3-4 4-6 97.6 97.1 97.5 97.4
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 7-0 10-0 123.8 121.2 122.6 122.6
Iowa 3-4 6-4 112.9 113.0 112.3 112.8
Northwestern 5-2 7-3 110.4 109.3 110.3 110.0
Minnesota 2-5 5-5 105.6 106.5 104.8 105.6
Purdue 2-5 4-6 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.0
Nebraska 3-4 4-6 97.5 98.3 96.8 97.5
Illinois 0-7 2-8 89.0 90.0 88.0 89.0
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.4 108.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 6-0 7-3 98.0 100.0 99.5 99.2
Marshall 4-2 7-3 91.8 93.0 93.5 92.8
W. Kentucky 3-3 5-5 90.7 90.8 91.5 91.0
Middle Tennessee 3-3 5-5 86.3 87.5 87.2 87.0
Florida Int’l. 4-2 6-3 86.0 86.4 86.8 86.4
Old Dominion 2-4 4-6 83.5 85.9 83.9 84.4
Charlotte 1-5 1-9 72.2 74.5 72.4 73.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 2-4 5-4 89.1 91.4 90.0 90.1
N. Texas 6-1 7-3 85.8 87.4 86.5 86.6
Louisiana Tech 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.4 86.2 86.4
Southern Miss. 4-2 6-4 84.2 85.3 84.7 84.7
UAB 5-2 7-3 81.4 84.2 83.5 83.0
Rice 1-5 1-9 71.9 73.3 72.2 72.5
U T E P 0-6 0-10 68.6 71.5 68.7 69.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   8-2 118.2 116.8 118.7 117.9
Army   8-2 100.9 100.6 101.4 101.0
Massachusetts   3-7 90.3 89.5 90.6 90.1
BYU   3-8 90.1 90.0 89.8 89.9
             
Indep. Averages     99.9 99.2 100.1 99.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-1 8-2 99.1 100.2 100.2 99.8
Miami (O) 3-3 4-6 88.6 90.7 89.8 89.7
Akron 4-2 5-5 86.8 89.2 87.3 87.8
Buffalo 2-4 4-6 85.6 87.8 87.6 87.0
Bowling Green 2-4 2-8 81.7 82.7 82.1 82.2
Kent St. 1-5 2-8 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 5-1 8-2 100.7 100.8 102.4 101.3
Western Michigan 4-2 6-4 97.7 96.8 98.6 97.7
Northern Illinois 5-1 7-3 95.9 95.8 97.0 96.2
Eastern Michigan 1-5 3-7 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
Central Michigan 4-2 6-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-6 2-8 65.7 67.7 66.3 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 6-0 8-2 107.0 105.5 107.2 106.6
Colo. State 4-3 6-5 101.5 100.5 101.3 101.1
Wyoming 5-1 7-3 100.7 99.4 100.0 100.0
Air Force 3-3 4-6 92.8 93.3 92.9 93.0
Utah St. 3-3 5-5 92.6 91.8 92.2 92.2
New Mexico 1-5 3-7 84.9 84.7 85.5 85.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 4-2 8-2 102.0 101.9 102.9 102.3
Fresno St. 5-1 7-3 95.0 94.2 95.6 95.0
Nevada 2-4 2-8 88.9 90.7 90.2 89.9
U N L V 3-3 4-6 86.1 87.6 86.1 86.6
Hawaii 1-6 3-7 84.6 85.6 84.3 84.8
San Jose St. 0-6 1-10 69.3 69.6 68.4 69.1
             
MWC Averages     92.1 92.1 92.2 92.1
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 5-2 8-2 126.8 124.3 126.9 126.0
Stanford 6-2 7-3 120.2 118.5 119.7 119.5
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 114.9 112.7 114.5 114.0
Oregon 2-5 5-5 106.8 105.0 105.9 105.9
California 2-5 5-5 104.8 102.7 102.9 103.5
Oregon St. 0-7 1-9 94.8 94.5 93.3 94.2
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 7-1 9-2 119.7 118.8 119.5 119.3
Arizona 5-2 7-3 109.2 107.6 108.4 108.4
Arizona St. 4-3 5-5 105.8 104.9 105.4 105.4
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.2 104.8 104.2 105.0
Utah 2-5 5-5 104.7 105.5 104.5 104.9
U C L A 3-4 5-5 103.4 102.8 102.7 103.0
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 6-1 9-1 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.6
S. Carolina 5-3 7-3 109.1 108.1 108.3<