PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 505 Sweet 16 Criteria Reveal

If you get to start anew with your brackets in whatever pool you are playing in as a participant, we have updated our PiRate Ratings Criteria for the Sweet 16.
If you played along with us, you should have 10 teams left in your Sweet 16, having 26 of the 32 first round winners. If you are in a league where you get one point for each winner that goes from 64 to 32, and two points for every correct Sweet 16 team, then you should be sitting pretty with 46 points. Hopefully, we will help you score some 3-point winners the next two nights, whether you must stick with your original picks, or you get to start over with the 16 remaining teams.

To understand our methods if you don’t already know, refer to this primer: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/bracketnomics-505-the-advanced-level-course-in-bracket-selection/

Here is a breakdown of each game for the next two nights, followed by an update at how the Elite 8 and Final Four look using our criteria.

Oregon vs. Michigan
Power Conference: Both teams

Strength of Schedule: Very slight edge to Michigan, but not enough to matter much

R+T Rating: Large edge to Oregon, as the Ducks’ R+T is 14.7 to the Wolverines’ 3.2. This means that on average, Oregon will have an opportunity through superior rebounding, ball-steals, and overall turnover differential to outscore Michigan by 11.5 points. There is a caveat, as the Ducks are missing a key component in Chris Boucher.
Ability to Win Away from Home: Oregon 14-5/Michigan 11-8. The Ducks have a decent advantage here, but not enough to move this game to the win column.

Winning Streak(s): The Ducks won 17 games in a row at one point this season and eight in a row another time, while Michigan had two, five-game winning streaks. Once again, Oregon has the advantage here, but we cannot annoint the Ducks winners just yet. Not having Boucher removes a lot of these advantages three rounds into the Big Dance.

Since the strengths of schedule are similar, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Michigan = 8.9, Oregon = 13.8, Ducks look better here
FG% Differential: Michigan = 1.9, Oregon = 7.8, Ducks look much better here, as UM fails to qualify
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 68

This is a tough game to figure out, because Boucher’s absence makes Oregon less than what the stats say. Still, the Ducks come out as the superior team based on how we use the criteria. In our original picks, we had Louisville knocking Oregon out of the tournament in this round, but the Cardinals were sent packing last weekend.

PiRate Criteria Pick: OREGON

 

Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Power Conference: West Virginia is, Gonzaga is not. A slight edge to the Mountaineers

Strength of Schedule: WVU 55.55. Gonzaga 54.02, a slight edge to the Mountaineers

R+T Rating: WVU 19.1, Gonzaga 21.2, a push when SOS is applied

Ability to Win Away from Home: WVU 11-6, Gonzaga 19-0, even with SOS factored into the equation, Gonzaga has the advantage here.

Winning Streak(s): WVU 8 & 4, Gonzaga 29 & 5, Gonzaga enjoys a small advantage

We must handicap these stats with Gonzaga playing in a weaker conference and a slightly weaker schedule
Scoring Margin: WVU 15.3, Gonzaga 22.8, a push
FG% Differential: WVU 3.4, Gonzaga 14.5
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 71

This is where we see another #1 seed going down. Gonzaga’s main Achilles Heel is their conference, where the WCC has two other quality teams. Of course, teams like Butler, George Mason, VCU, and Wichita State have advanced to the Final Four, but the percentages say that these are exceptions and not the norm. When you are trying to win a contest by going with the percentages, you go with the norm unless you have a major reason not to do so. When looking at the obvious way this game will deviate from the norm, it comes from the vaunted WVU full-court press, something that Gonzaga has not faced from a quality team this year. It is our belief that GU will commit very few turnovers against the press and even capitalize with a couple of easy baskets, making it look like to the casual fan that the press is not working. However, we believe it will take the Bulldogs out of their offense just enough to cause them to rush and make poor shot selections, and it will also begin to wear their bigger, bulkier players down in the second half. A fatigued team is only a shell of itself, and once GU is fatigued, WVU will pull away and win this game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WEST VIRGINIA

Kansas vs. Purdue
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: KU 58.11, PU 55.83, a decided advantage for the Jayhawks

R+T Rating: KU 12.3, PU 15.5, a credible advantage for the Boilermakers

Ability to Win Away from Home: KU 16-3, PU 12-5, a tiny advantage for KU

Winning Streak(s): KU 18 & 8, PU 7 & 6, KU has the advantage, but this isn’t overwhelming since PU has two 6+ streaks, and that is all we are looking for in this criterion

Since the strengths of schedule favor KU enough to matter, we must handicap the following stats.
Scoring Margin: KU 11.4, PU 12.6, with the handicap, KU has a minor advantage here
FG% Differential: KU 7.3, PU 6.4, a slight edge to the Jayhawks
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 72 which will favor KU in the 2nd half

In previous years where Purdue was very good, we would call for Kansas to easily win this game because in the past, Purdue did not own good R+T numbers. In fact, they were downright awful. However, this year is very different up in West Lafayatte, where Purdue has an R+T number strong enough to reach the Final Four. Unfortunately, Kansas has the criteria strong enough to win the National Championship, and thus we must go with the team that is only a tad better in this game. A Boilermaker win would not be a surprise at all, but we must go with the percentages.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KANSAS (but this should be an outstanding game)

Arizona vs. Xavier
Power Conference: Both (in recent years, we would discount the Pac-12 some, but not this year. Three league teams made the Sweet 16.

Strength of Schedule: Arizona 58.17, Xavier 58.70, a wash

R+T Rating: Arizona 18.0, Xavier 15.2, the Wildcats with an ever so slight advantage that is not enough to mean much

Ability to Win Away from Home: Arizona 17-3, Xavier 11-9, this is a big advantage for ‘Zona

Winning Streak(s): Arizona 15 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6, Another tiny advantage to the Wildcats

Since the strengths of schedule are almost identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Arizona 11.0, Xavier 4.1, the Wildcats have a major advantage here, as XU’s scoring margin is well beneath the threshold of a Final Four contender.
FG% Differential: Arizona 6.0, Xavier 0.9, another big edge for Arizona
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67

This one appears to be headed to a double-digit win for the higher-seeded team. Add on to the criteria the fact that Xavier has not been the same since Edmund Sumner was lost for the year at the end of January, and this game looks like a potential breeze for Arizona.
PiRate Criteria Pick: ARIZONA (by double digits)

 

North Carolina vs. Butler
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UNC 59.00, BU 59.04, a total push

R+T Rating: UNC 31.1, BU 9.5, do we really need to go on after this criterion shows the Tar Heels with a chance on average to score 20 more points on rebounds, steals, and turnovers?

Ability to Win Away from Home: UNC 13-7, BU 12-5, pretty much even here

Winning Streak(s): UNC 13 & 7, BU 12 & 5, another push

Since the strengths of schedule are identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: UNC 14.8, BU 7.8, Give the Heels a little more advantage here
FG% Differential: UNC 5.5, BU 3.7, more props for the Heels
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 70 (Butler will want to slow the pace, but they will have to play catchup)

Pirate Criteria Pick: NORTH CAROLINA

Baylor vs. South Carolina
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: BU 59.40, USC 56.23, the Bears have a little advantage here

R+T Rating: BU 19.3, USC 10.4, Baylor with decent advantage in this one

Ability to Win Away from Home: BU 12-5, USC 11-7, another tilt to the Bears

Winning Streak(s): BU 15 & 5, USC 8 & 5, BU with yet another advantage

Since the strengths of schedule favors Baylor, the following stats must be handicapped a little
Scoring Margin: BU 10.1, USC 7.9, the criteria keeps tilting green
FG% Differential: BU 7.2, USC 1.9, this continues the trend
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67, Baylor will conrol the pace.

PiRate Criteria Pick: BAYLOR

 

Kentucky vs. UCLA
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UK 58.63, UCLA 54.00, a nice advantage for the Wildcats, but UCLA still meets the minimum number for Final Four consideration, and remember UCLA won at Kentucky earlier this season

R+T Rating: UK 17.2, UCLA 10.9

Ability to Win Away from Home: UK 16-3, UCLA 14-3, nothing to learn here

Winning Streak(s): UK 13 & 7, UCLA 13 & 10, not much here either

We must handicap the following stats in UK’s favor fde to the strengths of schedule
Scoring Margin: UK 13.9, UCLA 15.0, basically a wash
FG% Differential: UK 5.4, UCLA 10.2, The Bruins pick up a big advantage here with Championship-caliber differential
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 74, expect the most up-tempo game of the Sweet 16, and it could even top 75.

Face it: this is the game that is going to make this round. The winner most likely plays North Carolina in the Elite 8, making for a fantastic 48-hours in Memphis, where they could move these games to the Liberty Bowl and still not have enough seats for the fans that want to get in. Think of this game like the second Ali-Frazier fight. Or, if you are a Bruin fan over the age of 55, be forewarned and remember that Houston beat your Bruins in the 1967-68 regular season before meeting up with the worst ever whipping by a number one team in the history of the game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KENTUCKY — Until the Wildcats are knocked out of the tournament, they have the best resume when comparing it to past National Champions.

 

Florida vs. Wisconsin
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: Fla 59.34, UW 54.79, The Gators have a decided advantage

R+T Rating: Fla 3.3, UW 3.3 This is a dirty wash, as neither team can expect to be a Championship team with these R+T ratings.

Ability to Win Away from Home: Fla 17-7, UW 12-7, Florida played a lot of neutral site games near home when their arena was not ready following remodeling. This becomes a wash

Winning Streak(s): Fla. 9 & 7, UW 9 & 8, a wash

Since the strengths of schedule favor the Gators, the following stats must be handicapped in UF’s favor. Scoring Margin: UF 6.2, UW 9.2, a wash
FG% Differential: UF 4.6, UW 4.2, a small edge for the Gators
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 69 We look for the Badgers to slow the tempo a little

When Florida isn’t playing Vanderbilt, they look like Final Four contenders. Actually, two of the three losses to the Commodores came after the Gators lost John Egbunu for the season due to injury, and UF went from 23-5 to 24-8 after that loss. This discounts the Gators’ results enough to make up for the schedule strength favor. In other words, this is a game where you flip a coin. We do not use the Four Factors in this criteria selection process, but if we were to use them for this game, it would just add a bunch of balance, as the teams would come out dead even. We must select somebody to go on and lose to Baylor Sunday, and just because they have a little more recent NCAA Tournament success, we will go with the Badgers.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WISCONSIN –but this is really a tie

Elite 8 to Final Four
Baylor over Wisconsin
Arizona over West Virginia
Kentucky over North Carolina
Kansas over Oregon

Semifinals
Baylor over Arizona
Kentucky over Kansas

Championship
Kentucky over Baylor

Note: When we first revealed the criteria for all 68 teams in the dance, we listed the top 10 teams with the best matching criteria to past champions. The top 6 teams in this list, and 8 of the 10 made the Sweet 16. Here is that top 10 again.
1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Baylor
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Villanova
9. Kansas
10. Purdue

 

Red-White-Blue Ratings For Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Games

 

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Notre Dame	Princeton	6	6	2
Virginia	UNC-Wilmington	7	9	9
Butler	Winthrop	10	9	10
Gonzaga	South Dakota St.	24	21	15
West Virginia	Bucknell	13	12	11
Florida	East Tennessee St.	10	12	13
Minnesota	Middle Tennessee	2	1	3
Northwestern	Vanderbilt	-1	-1	-5
Maryland	Xavier	-1	-1	-1
Villanova	Mount St. Mary’s	22	23	21
Saint Mary’s	VCU	5	6	4
Purdue	Vermont	9	9	5
Florida St.	Florida Gulf Coast	13	14	11
Wisconsin	Virginia Tech	4	4	4
Arizona	North Dakota	15	15	14
Iowa St.	Nevada	6	6	6

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 15-19, 2016

After one of the most contentious elections in over 100 years, the college football world decided to make Tuesday’s vote of the College Football Playoff Committee just as controversial before it can be released.

Truth be told, there only needs to be two playoff bids issued this year. The first one should go to Alabama as the number one seed, and the second one should go to the College All-Star Team as the number two seed. This Crimson Tide team has the look of one of John Wooden’s UCLA basketball teams during the Alcindor-Walton years. Coach Nick Saban’s team has pulled away from the pack now that Clemson, Michigan, and Washington fell Saturday.

There is still a lot to be decided, and there are some interesting scenarios left before four teams can earn golden tickets in December. Let’s take a look at each conference.

American Athletic
Temple and South Florida are tied for first in the East at 5-1 with Central Florida a game back at 4-2. Temple has the inside track to take the divisional crown, as the Owls have a road game against Tulane and a home game with East Carolina left on their schedule and hold the tiebreaker over the both contenders.

Navy leads the West and must lose to both East Carolina and SMU in order for either Houston or Tulsa to win the division. Memphis and Tulsa have such slim chances of winning the division in a multiple tie that it is not worth mentioning all the possibilities that must happen to make it real.

Atlantic Coast
Clemson’s loss to Pittsburgh is not enough to push Louisville over the top in the Atlantic Division. The Cardinals need for Wake Forest to upset the Tigers this weekend, and that is not likely to happen. Louisville could profit off a Clemson loss in the ACC Championship Game. If the Cardinals win out and CU loses again, UL could move into the playoffs without appearing in a championship game.

The Coastal Division did not change even though the two co-leaders were both upset. Virginia Tech and North Carolina are tied at 5-2. If the two stay tied at either 6-2 or 5-3, then the Hokies win the tiebreaker. Pittsburgh and Miami can both get to 5-3, but Virginia Tech wins any and all tiebreakers against any possible 5-3 opponent.

Big 12
Oklahoma leads at 7-0, but Oklahoma State and West Virginia both have just one conference loss and are still alive in the conference championship race. The Sooners close with West Virginia in Morgantown and Oklahoma State in Norman.

The three teams cannot finished tied at 8-1, because with the Sooners playing both one-loss teams, one of the three teams must lose a second conference game. There is a scenario where all three teams could finish tied with two losses, but it is not all that likely. If Oklahoma loses to both contenders to drop to 7-2, and if Oklahoma State loses at TCU this weekend, while West Virginia loses at Iowa State, then OSU will be the Big 12 Champion.

Big Ten
Oh, did this past weekend really throw a monkey wrench into the workings. With Iowa beating Michigan, it opened up the possibility that Penn State could sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game as East Division champ. If the Nittany Lions win out against Rutgers and Michigan State, and if Ohio State beats Michigan, then Coach James Franklin will lead Penn State to Indianapolis on December 3. Whether Ohio State can win out to finish 11-1, miss the conference title game, and still get a bid to the Playoffs is unsure.

In the West, there are even more possible scenarios than in the East. Wisconsin is the only divisionteam that controls its own destiny. If the Badgers beat Purdue and Minnesota , they go to Indy. If UW loses a game, and Nebraska beats Maryland and Iowa, the Cornhuskers take the flag. Then, there is the possibility that if both Wisconsin and Nebraska lose, there are scenarios where Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern could make it to the Championship Game.

Conference USA
The two division races are basically decided after the two division leaders won on Saturday. Western Kentucky has one game left at Marshall on November 26. If the 6-1 Hilltoppers win that game, they are East Champs. If WKU falls in Huntington, then Old Dominion can win the division title by closing with wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida International.

Louisiana Tech clinched the West with their win over UTSA Saturday. The Bulldogs have won seven games in a row after starting the year at 1-3, including pinning the lone conference loss on WKU.

Mid-American
You probably haven’t followed the race in the MAC East much this year, because the other division has gotten all the headlines. However, one of the wackiest ever races in the history of college football could be taking place on this side of the league. There is a chance that a team that began the year losing its first six games, including a home loss to Eastern Illinois, could find itself in the MAC Championship Game! Miami of Ohio was 0-6 after losing big at Akron in early October. Since then, the Redhawks have reeled off five consecutive wins and will become bowl eligible if they beat Ball State a week from Tuesday.

Ohio has the inside advantage to winning the East Division, but should the Bobcats end the year by losing at Central Michigan (who needs to win to become bowl eligible) and at home to Akron (who will need to win to become bowl eligible), then Miami will earn the right to play the behemoth in the other division.

That behemoth is Western Michigan, the number 14 team in this week’s AP Poll and current leader of the pack among the Group of 5 leagues for the Cotton Bowl bid. Before we annoint the Broncos into the Dallas classic, they must beat Toledo on Black Friday and then win the MAC Championship Game. If Toledo wins out over Ball State and WMU, then the Rockets will play in the conference title game.

Mountain West
The Mountain Division race became a bit cloudier after Wyoming lost at UNLV on Saturday. There is now a three-way tie with the Cowboys, New Mexico, and Boise State. At the moment, Boise has the clearest path to the division flag, but they must still play at Air Force. The other two contenders have tough closing schedules, as Wyoming closes with San Diego State and New Mexico, and the Lobos play at Colorado State before hosting the Cowboys. In the event there is a tie, Wyoming owns the tiebreaker over Boise State, and Boise State owns the tiebreaker over New Mexico. If the three teams finished tied with 6-2 records, it will depend on whether Wyoming’s second loss was to San Diego State or New Mexico that determines who gets the nod.

There is no trouble about the West Division race. SDSU wrapped it up about the time the Cubs won the World Series. The Aztecs will be the only division team to become bowl eligible, unless UNLV can upset Boise State and beat Nevada.

Pac-12
There is very little chance that a Pac-12 team will make the Playoffs this year after Washington fell to USC. The contending teams are now playing for a trip to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl.

In the North, it is now Washington State in the lead, but that lead could be short-lived. After winning eight consecutive games for the first time since 1930, the Cougars close with games at Colorado and at home against Washington. The game in Boulder is now the tougher game of the two, as we believe Coach Mike Leach’s club will top the Huskies in the Apple Cup game at beautiful Martin Stadium. Washington can still win the division flag by winning in the Palouse on Black Friday.

Colorado has a half-game lead over USC in the South, but the Trojans hold the tiebreaker over the Buffs should the two teams tie. CU closes with home games against WSU and Utah, and Coach Mike MacIntyre would have to become one of the leading candidates for National Coach of the Year, should CU win both of these games and claim the South crown after being picked last in the preseason.

Don’t forget Utah just yet. The Utes are a game back at 5-2 and host Oregon before heading to Boulder a week later. If Utah beats the Ducks and then knocks off CU, the Utes would own the tiebreaker over a 7-2 CU and 7-2 USC.

USC can win the South by beating UCLA this week and then hoping that both CU and Utah lose a game. One of the other two must lose because they face off, but the winner of that game will have to lose this week as well.

Southeastern
The only race is in the East, and it is now a two-team race between Florida and Tennessee. If the Gators beat LSU this weekend, they are in the SEC Championship Game for a second consecutive year. If LSU wins, and then Tennessee beats Missouri and Vanderbilt, the Vols will head to the Championship Game.

Alabama has already wrapped up the SEC West, and if they win out, they will be the heaviest favorite in the three-year existence of the Playoffs. A 15-0 Crimson Tide National Champion would have to rank up there with Miami of 2001, Nebraska of 1971 and 1995, USC of 1932 and 1972, and Army of 1944 and 1945 as the best team of all time.

Sunbelt
If you think Louisville deserves a shot at the College Football Playoffs with an 11-1 record and the lone loss at Clemson in a game that went to the final minute, then what about Troy? Troy could also finish 11-1 with its lone loss at Clemson in a game that came down to the final minute. The Trojans debuted in the AP Top 25 this week, but don’t expect this team to make it to an New Year’s 6 Bowl game, even if they win out. Western Michigan, San Diego State, and Boise State must all lose a game before Troy has a chance, and if Houston beats Louisville, the Cougars will top the Trojans as well.

Troy still has three games left on its schedule, and one of those three is a home game Thursday night against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are still undefeated in conference play, so the conference championship will be up for grabs this week.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	138.0	131.4	138.1	135.8
2	Ohio St.	128.9	128.3	129.5	128.9
3	Michigan	129.2	126.9	129.2	128.4
4	Louisville	129.4	125.0	129.6	128.0
5	Washington	128.0	121.0	127.4	125.5
6	Clemson	127.4	120.7	126.3	124.8
7	LSU	126.3	121.2	125.9	124.5
8	Oklahoma	121.1	119.6	120.8	120.5
9	USC	122.4	117.4	120.7	120.2
10	Auburn	120.3	118.5	120.1	119.6
11	Wisconsin	119.3	116.8	120.0	118.7
12	Florida St.	120.2	114.1	119.5	117.9
13	Washington St.	118.5	115.2	118.3	117.4
14	Colorado	117.8	113.5	117.7	116.4
15	North Carolina	118.2	112.5	118.1	116.3
16	Miami	118.1	112.5	117.8	116.1
17	Virginia Tech	115.9	114.6	115.9	115.5
18	Penn St.	115.0	115.9	114.8	115.2
19	Oklahoma St.	114.8	115.8	114.2	114.9
20	Texas A&M	115.6	113.7	115.0	114.8
21	Tennessee	115.7	113.2	114.8	114.6
22	Stanford	115.9	109.6	115.4	113.6
23	Pittsburgh	115.0	110.9	114.2	113.4
24	Western Michigan	112.7	112.3	114.3	113.1
25	Florida	112.2	113.7	110.5	112.1
26	Utah	114.1	108.8	112.7	111.9
27	West Virginia	112.1	111.5	111.7	111.8
28	Notre Dame	112.8	109.9	111.9	111.5
29	Ole Miss	112.6	108.6	111.4	110.9
30	TCU	110.6	112.1	109.7	110.8
31	Iowa	111.6	109.2	111.3	110.7
32	Texas	110.0	111.0	109.2	110.1
33	San Diego St.	109.7	108.2	111.8	109.9
34	South Florida	109.8	107.9	110.3	109.3
35	Georgia	109.8	108.9	109.1	109.3
36	Northwestern	110.8	107.0	109.9	109.2
37	Arkansas	111.2	106.8	109.5	109.2
38	UCLA	110.0	108.3	109.3	109.2
39	BYU	110.6	105.3	110.5	108.8
40	Baylor	108.4	109.0	108.7	108.7
41	Georgia Tech	109.9	105.9	108.9	108.2
42	Nebraska	109.1	106.5	108.8	108.1
43	Houston	107.9	107.1	109.1	108.0
44	Kansas St.	106.9	109.1	106.8	107.6
45	Temple	107.2	106.4	107.7	107.1
46	Boise St.	106.1	107.0	107.0	106.7
47	Mississippi St.	107.5	105.7	106.5	106.6
48	Western Kentucky	106.7	104.5	108.0	106.4
49	North Carolina St.	106.6	103.5	106.4	105.5
50	Michigan St.	105.9	105.0	104.3	105.1
51	Minnesota	105.5	104.3	105.0	104.9
52	Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.8	104.8
53	Texas Tech	105.3	104.6	104.2	104.7
54	Toledo	103.2	103.7	104.2	103.7
55	Duke	103.9	103.1	103.5	103.5
56	Navy	103.7	102.1	103.6	103.2
57	Memphis	103.9	102.1	102.8	103.0
58	Oregon	103.7	102.2	102.6	102.8
59	Indiana	102.5	104.1	101.9	102.8
60	Wake Forest	102.2	100.6	102.6	101.8
61	Virginia	102.8	100.1	102.0	101.6
62	Arizona St.	102.4	101.1	100.8	101.5
63	Kentucky	101.4	102.0	100.9	101.4
64	Vanderbilt	101.8	98.9	100.5	100.4
65	South Carolina	100.4	100.1	100.1	100.2
66	Appalachian St.	99.3	100.3	101.0	100.2
67	Louisiana Tech	98.7	100.7	100.7	100.0
68	Central Florida	99.1	100.2	100.0	99.8
69	Syracuse	99.9	96.8	98.1	98.3
70	Iowa St.	98.6	98.4	97.8	98.3
71	Missouri	98.7	97.9	98.1	98.3
72	California	100.8	94.5	98.4	97.9
73	Air Force	96.5	98.3	96.8	97.2
74	Troy	94.1	98.2	96.2	96.2
75	Maryland	95.9	98.4	94.1	96.1
76	New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
77	SMU	95.0	94.5	97.1	95.6
78	Northern Illinois	94.7	96.0	95.8	95.5
79	Oregon St.	97.3	92.8	96.0	95.4
80	Boston College	95.9	94.6	95.0	95.2
81	Wyoming	94.1	94.4	94.9	94.5
82	Ohio	92.0	97.7	92.8	94.2
83	Central Michigan	93.0	94.9	93.3	93.7
84	Arizona	94.8	92.5	93.2	93.5
85	Colorado St.	92.6	94.3	93.6	93.5
86	Cincinnati	93.1	93.5	92.7	93.1
87	Arkansas St.	91.3	93.6	93.0	92.6
88	Illinois	93.0	90.0	92.0	91.7
89	Army	88.8	95.2	90.0	91.3
90	East Carolina	90.0	91.6	90.2	90.6
91	Miami (O)	89.6	91.1	91.1	90.6
92	Connecticut	90.8	89.8	90.3	90.3
93	Old Dominion	88.7	91.7	89.7	90.0
94	Purdue	90.5	89.0	89.1	89.5
95	Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
96	Middle Tennessee	88.6	90.1	88.9	89.2
97	Kent St.	87.9	89.4	88.8	88.7
98	Georgia Southern	87.1	87.7	88.8	87.9
99	UTSA	84.9	91.2	87.2	87.8
100	Eastern Michigan	86.7	88.8	87.2	87.6
101	Rutgers	88.7	86.6	87.3	87.6
102	Southern Mississippi	87.1	87.5	87.2	87.3
103	UNLV	85.8	88.6	86.2	86.9
104	Tulane	84.7	88.5	85.5	86.2
105	Idaho	83.3	88.3	85.3	85.6
106	Nevada	84.5	86.7	85.1	85.5
107	Ball St.	84.0	86.3	84.8	85.0
108	Marshall	83.2	86.6	84.0	84.6
109	South Alabama	82.1	88.4	82.9	84.5
110	Kansas	83.5	88.1	81.2	84.3
111	San Jose St.	84.0	84.0	83.7	83.9
112	Akron	81.2	86.4	82.0	83.2
113	Bowling Green	82.8	83.6	83.1	83.2
114	Massachusetts	80.2	86.5	81.3	82.7
115	UL-Lafayette	79.5	84.3	81.1	81.7
116	Florida International	79.6	84.0	80.0	81.2
117	North Texas	79.9	82.9	80.3	81.1
118	Hawaii	80.8	80.3	80.5	80.5
119	Georgia St.	78.0	82.6	79.8	80.1
120	Charlotte	76.7	82.3	77.3	78.8
121	Fresno St.	77.3	80.8	77.0	78.4
122	Florida Atlantic	75.7	80.4	78.3	78.1
123	Buffalo	75.8	82.2	76.3	78.1
124	Rice	75.3	81.9	75.6	77.6
125	UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.8	74.4
126	New Mexico St.	71.8	74.7	72.8	73.1
127	UL-Monroe	70.2	75.4	71.0	72.2
128	Texas St.	65.9	68.4	66.8	67.0

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	109.8	107.9	110.3	109.3
Temple	107.2	106.4	107.7	107.1
Central Florida	99.1	100.2	100.0	99.8
Cincinnati	93.1	93.5	92.7	93.1
East Carolina	90.0	91.6	90.2	90.6
Connecticut	90.8	89.8	90.3	90.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	107.9	107.1	109.1	108.0
Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.8	104.8
Navy	103.7	102.1	103.6	103.2
Memphis	103.9	102.1	102.8	103.0
SMU	95.0	94.5	97.1	95.6
Tulane	84.7	88.5	85.5	86.2
AAC Averages	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	129.4	125.0	129.6	128.0
Clemson	127.4	120.7	126.3	124.8
Florida St.	120.2	114.1	119.5	117.9
North Carolina St.	106.6	103.5	106.4	105.5
Wake Forest	102.2	100.6	102.6	101.8
Syracuse	99.9	96.8	98.1	98.3
Boston College	95.9	94.6	95.0	95.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	118.2	112.5	118.1	116.3
Miami	118.1	112.5	117.8	116.1
Virginia Tech	115.9	114.6	115.9	115.5
Pittsburgh	115.0	110.9	114.2	113.4
Georgia Tech	109.9	105.9	108.9	108.2
Duke	103.9	103.1	103.5	103.5
Virginia	102.8	100.1	102.0	101.6
ACC Averages	111.8	108.2	111.3	110.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	121.1	119.6	120.8	120.5
Oklahoma St.	114.8	115.8	114.2	114.9
West Virginia	112.1	111.5	111.7	111.8
TCU	110.6	112.1	109.7	110.8
Texas	110.0	111.0	109.2	110.1
Baylor	108.4	109.0	108.7	108.7
Kansas St.	106.9	109.1	106.8	107.6
Texas Tech	105.3	104.6	104.2	104.7
Iowa St.	98.6	98.4	97.8	98.3
Kansas	83.5	88.1	81.2	84.3
Big 12 Averages	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.9	128.3	129.5	128.9
Michigan	129.2	126.9	129.2	128.4
Penn St.	115.0	115.9	114.8	115.2
Michigan St.	105.9	105.0	104.3	105.1
Indiana	102.5	104.1	101.9	102.8
Maryland	95.9	98.4	94.1	96.1
Rutgers	88.7	86.6	87.3	87.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	119.3	116.8	120.0	118.7
Iowa	111.6	109.2	111.3	110.7
Northwestern	110.8	107.0	109.9	109.2
Nebraska	109.1	106.5	108.8	108.1
Minnesota	105.5	104.3	105.0	104.9
Illinois	93.0	90.0	92.0	91.7
Purdue	90.5	89.0	89.1	89.5
Big Ten Averages	107.6	106.3	106.9	106.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	106.7	104.5	108.0	106.4
Old Dominion	88.7	91.7	89.7	90.0
Middle Tennessee	88.6	90.1	88.9	89.2
Marshall	83.2	86.6	84.0	84.6
Florida International	79.6	84.0	80.0	81.2
Charlotte	76.7	82.3	77.3	78.8
Florida Atlantic	75.7	80.4	78.3	78.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	98.7	100.7	100.7	100.0
UTSA	84.9	91.2	87.2	87.8
Southern Mississippi	87.1	87.5	87.2	87.3
North Texas	79.9	82.9	80.3	81.1
Rice	75.3	81.9	75.6	77.6
UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.8	74.4
CUSA Averages	84.4	87.8	85.5	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.8	109.9	111.9	111.5
BYU	110.6	105.3	110.5	108.8
Army	88.8	95.2	90.0	91.3
Massachusetts	80.2	86.5	81.3	82.7
Independents Averages	98.1	99.2	98.4	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	92.0	97.7	92.8	94.2
Miami (O)	89.6	91.1	91.1	90.6
Kent St.	87.9	89.4	88.8	88.7
Akron	81.2	86.4	82.0	83.2
Bowling Green	82.8	83.6	83.1	83.2
Buffalo	75.8	82.2	76.3	78.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	112.7	112.3	114.3	113.1
Toledo	103.2	103.7	104.2	103.7
Northern Illinois	94.7	96.0	95.8	95.5
Central Michigan	93.0	94.9	93.3	93.7
Eastern Michigan	86.7	88.8	87.2	87.6
Ball St.	84.0	86.3	84.8	85.0
MAC Averages	90.3	92.7	91.1	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	107.0	107.0	106.7
Air Force	96.5	98.3	96.8	97.2
New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
Wyoming	94.1	94.4	94.9	94.5
Colorado St.	92.6	94.3	93.6	93.5
Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	109.7	108.2	111.8	109.9
UNLV	85.8	88.6	86.2	86.9
Nevada	84.5	86.7	85.1	85.5
San Jose St.	84.0	84.0	83.7	83.9
Hawaii	80.8	80.3	80.5	80.5
Fresno St.	77.3	80.8	77.0	78.4
MWC Averages	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	128.0	121.0	127.4	125.5
Washington St.	118.5	115.2	118.3	117.4
Stanford	115.9	109.6	115.4	113.6
Oregon	103.7	102.2	102.6	102.8
California	100.8	94.5	98.4	97.9
Oregon St.	97.3	92.8	96.0	95.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	122.4	117.4	120.7	120.2
Colorado	117.8	113.5	117.7	116.4
Utah	114.1	108.8	112.7	111.9
UCLA	110.0	108.3	109.3	109.2
Arizona St.	102.4	101.1	100.8	101.5
Arizona	94.8	92.5	93.2	93.5
Pac-12 Averages	110.5	106.4	109.4	108.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	115.7	113.2	114.8	114.6
Florida	112.2	113.7	110.5	112.1
Georgia	109.8	108.9	109.1	109.3
Kentucky	101.4	102.0	100.9	101.4
Vanderbilt	101.8	98.9	100.5	100.4
South Carolina	100.4	100.1	100.1	100.2
Missouri	98.7	97.9	98.1	98.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	138.0	131.4	138.1	135.8
LSU	126.3	121.2	125.9	124.5
Auburn	120.3	118.5	120.1	119.6
Texas A&M	115.6	113.7	115.0	114.8
Ole Miss	112.6	108.6	111.4	110.9
Arkansas	111.2	106.8	109.5	109.2
Mississippi St.	107.5	105.7	106.5	106.6
SEC Averages	112.3	110.1	111.5	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	99.3	100.3	101.0	100.2
Troy	94.1	98.2	96.2	96.2
Arkansas St.	91.3	93.6	93.0	92.6
Georgia Southern	87.1	87.7	88.8	87.9
Idaho	83.3	88.3	85.3	85.6
South Alabama	82.1	88.4	82.9	84.5
UL-Lafayette	79.5	84.3	81.1	81.7
Georgia St.	78.0	82.6	79.8	80.1
New Mexico St.	71.8	74.7	72.8	73.1
UL-Monroe	70.2	75.4	71.0	72.2
Texas St.	65.9	68.4	66.8	67.0
Sun Belt Averages	82.1	85.7	83.5	83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.3	110.1	111.5	111.3
2	ACC	111.8	108.2	111.3	110.4
3	Pac-12	110.5	106.4	109.4	108.8
4	Big 12	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
5	Big Ten	107.6	106.3	106.9	106.9
6	AAC	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.3
7	Independents	98.1	99.2	98.4	98.6
8	MWC	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
9	MAC	90.3	92.7	91.1	91.4
10	CUSA	84.4	87.8	85.5	85.9
11	Sun Belt	82.1	85.7	83.5	83.7

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive ratings are similar to poll rankings–wins and schedule strength

These ratings are not predictive in nature

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Louisville
4	Clemson
5	Michigan
6	Wisconsin
7	Washington
8	Penn St.
9	USC
10	Colorado
11	Western Michigan
12	Washington St.
13	Oklahoma
14	Florida St.
15	Auburn
16	LSU
17	West Virginia
18	Boise St.
19	Nebraska
20	Texas A&M
21	Utah
22	Stanford
23	Tennessee
24	Florida
25	Oklahoma St.
26	South Florida
27	North Carolina
28	Virginia Tech
29	Houston
30	San Diego St.
31	Troy
32	Ole Miss
33	Pittsburgh
34	Miami (Fla)
35	Navy
36	Temple
37	Iowa
38	BYU
39	Arkansas
40	Toledo
41	Tulsa
42	Northwestern
43	Minnesota
44	Western Kentucky
45	Appalachian St.
46	Georgia
47	Kansas St.
48	Baylor
49	Georgia Tech
50	Louisiana Tech
51	TCU
52	UCLA
53	Wyoming
54	Memphis
55	Texas
56	Central Florida
57	North Carolina St.
58	Arizona St.
59	Air Force
60	Wake Forest
61	Indiana
62	Kentucky
63	California
64	Mississippi St.
65	Maryland
66	South Carolina
67	New Mexico
68	Notre Dame
69	Old Dominion
70	Texas Tech
71	Oregon
72	Ohio
73	Colorado St.
74	Duke
75	SMU
76	Vanderbilt
77	Arkansas St.
78	Idaho
79	Syracuse
80	Eastern Michigan
81	Boston College
82	Middle Tennessee
83	Oregon St.
84	Michigan St.
85	Central Michigan
86	Illinois
87	Missouri
88	Georgia Southern
89	Southern Miss.
90	UTSA
91	Army
92	Miami (O)
93	Cincinnati
94	Arizona
95	South Alabama
96	Northern Illinois
97	Utah St.
98	Akron
99	East Carolina
100	Virginia
101	Tulane
102	UL-Lafayette
103	Kent St.
104	UNLV
105	Hawaii
106	Iowa St.
107	Connecticut
108	Purdue
109	North Texas
110	Ball St.
111	Rutgers
112	UL-Monroe
113	San Jose St.
114	Charlotte
115	Marshall
116	Bowling Green
117	Nevada
118	Georgia St.
119	Florida Int’l.
120	New Mexico St.
121	Massachusetts
122	UTEP
123	Kansas
124	Florida Atlantic
125	Texas St.
126	Buffalo
127	Rice
128	Fresno St.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 15
Bowling Green	Kent St.	-3.1	-3.8	-3.7
Central Michigan	Ohio U	3.5	-0.3	3.0
Wednesday, November 16
Toledo	Ball St.	21.7	19.9	21.9
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	-5.5	-4.7	-6.1
Thursday, November 17
Houston	Louisville	-18.5	-14.9	-17.5
Troy	Arkansas St.	5.8	7.6	6.2
Friday, November 18
Cincinnati	Memphis	-7.8	-5.6	-7.1
Boise St.	UNLV	23.3	21.4	23.8
Saturday, November 19
Oregon St.	Arizona	5.5	3.3	5.8
Colorado	Washington St.	2.3	1.3	2.4
Utah	Oregon	13.4	9.6	13.1
SMU	South Florida	-11.8	-10.4	-9.2
TCU	Oklahoma St.	-1.2	-0.7	-1.5
Illinois	Iowa	-15.6	-16.2	-16.3
Minnesota	Northwestern	-1.7	0.3	-1.9
Baylor	Kansas St.	4.7	2.9	4.9
Nebraska	Maryland	16.2	11.1	17.7
Purdue	Wisconsin	-25.8	-24.8	-27.9
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-20.0	-20.3	-22.2
Texas A&M	UTSA	33.2	25.0	30.3
Georgia	UL-Lafayette	33.3	27.6	31.0
Rice	UTEP	5.4	7.5	4.3
Georgia Tech	Virginia	10.1	8.8	9.9
North Carolina St.	Miami (Fla.)	-8.5	-6.0	-8.4
LSU	Florida	17.1	10.5	18.4
Boston College	Connecticut	7.1	6.8	6.7
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-9.4	-5.3	-9.1
BYU	Massachusetts	33.9	22.3	32.7
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-7.1	-3.1	-7.0
Appalachian St.	UL-Monroe	32.1	27.9	33.0
Pittsburgh	Duke	14.1	10.8	13.7
Western Michigan	Buffalo	39.9	33.1	41.0
Syracuse	Florida St.	-17.3	-14.3	-19.4
Kansas	Texas	-23.5	-19.9	-25.0
Wyoming	San Diego St.	-12.6	-10.8	-13.9
Notre Dame	Virginia Tech	-0.1	-1.7	-1.0
Tennessee	Missouri	20.0	18.3	19.7
Tulane	Temple	-19.5	-14.9	-19.2
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	-3.7	-3.2	-3.4
Michigan	Indiana	29.7	25.8	30.3
East Carolina	Navy	-10.7	-7.5	-10.4
New Mexico St.	Texas St.	8.4	8.8	8.5
California	Stanford	-14.1	-14.1	-16.0
North Texas	Southern Miss.	-4.7	-2.1	-4.4
Florida Atlantic	Old Dominion	-10.0	-8.3	-8.4
Wake Forest	Clemson	-22.2	-17.1	-20.7
Fresno St.	Hawaii	0.5	4.5	0.5
Florida Int’l.	Marshall	-1.1	-0.1	-1.5
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	-0.7	1.9	0.1
Washington	Arizona St.	28.6	22.9	29.6
Central Florida	Tulsa	-2.0	-1.8	-1.8
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-6.0	-5.1	-6.1
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	-8.8	-7.7	-8.9
Rutgers	Penn St.	-23.8	-26.8	-25.0
Colorado St.	New Mexico	1.0	0.5	1.2
UCLA	USC	-11.4	-8.1	-10.4
San Jose St.	Air Force	-9.5	-11.3	-10.1
Nevada	Utah St.	-0.9	-1.6	-0.2

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS vs. FCS	Week 12
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Morgan St.	41
North Carolina	Citadel	28
South Carolina	Western Carolina	30
Kentucky	Austin Peay	41
Alabama	Chattanooga	49
South Alabama	Presbyterian	30
Auburn	Alabama A&M	59

Bowl Projections

This week, we show 77 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  Three non-bowl eligible teams would thus be needed to fill in as alternates.  Of the three, only one team would have a 5-7 record, as the other two teams figure to be 6-6 with two FCS wins apiece.  Oddly, no at-large spots were needed other than the three alternate slots.

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	UTSA
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Arizona St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Fla.	vs.	Idaho
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	vs.	Arkansas St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Memphis	vs.	Ohio U
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	vs.	Old Dominion
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Wyoming	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	vs.	Colorado St.
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Houston	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	Kansas St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Appy St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	La. Tech	vs.	Air Force
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Temple	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Wake Forest	vs.	{Army}
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	Kentucky	vs.	{Boston Coll.}
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	{S. Alabama}	vs.	North Texas
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	N. C. State	vs.	South Florida
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Washington
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	California
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	vs.	Utah
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Auburn
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulsa	vs.	S. Carolina
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	Texas A&M
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	N.Carolina	vs.	Stanford
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	W. Kentucky	vs.	Boise St.
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Indiana	vs.	Georgia
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Clemson	vs.	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Tennessee
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Georgia Tech	vs.	Ole Miss
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Wisconsin
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Ohio St.	vs.	Louisville
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	vs.	Florida
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Western Mich.	vs.	Colorado
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	vs.	Wash. St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	LSU
CFP Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Ohio St.
{Team}	Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 13-17, 2016

Replayicide

A third consecutive winning week was practically in the bag thanks to a great Sunday comeback. Yes, a terrific 84.7% return on our investment was ours, as Joe Flacco guided the Baltimore Ravens on a fourth quarter comeback to defeat the Washington Redskins, allowing the PiRates to cash in on a really nice +199 parlay.

As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friends.” All scoring plays are reviewed. Breshad Perriman appeared to have both feet inbounds in real time with his heel of his second foot hitting green turf, but the instant replay told a different story, and by the distance of a few blades of grass, a big payoff turned into a 15% loss on our investment. Oh well, at least they are imaginary dollars, so we didn’t really lose anything but a little self-pride.

One good thing about doing this exercise just for fun is that you don’t become gun shy when you miss on a big payoff like this, and you don’t have to worry about trying to catch up after a loss or sustain any success; you just select the next week’s games as if the new week is in a vacuum.
We have chosen four new selections this week, three from college and one NFL. This is a strange season for the NFL, so we are lessening our amount of pro plays.

Enjoy these selections, but remember, we highly encourage you not to use them to wager real coin, currency, or plastic on them.

October 13-17, 2016

1. College Parlay @ +157
Idaho over New Mexico St.
Marshall over Florida Atlantic
Florida over Missouri
Georgia over Vanderbilt

We like the job Paul Petrino has done at Idaho and expect the Vandals to win in the Palouse this week; considering that this program has announced that they will leave FBS football to return to FCS and the Big Sky Conference in 2018, Petrino could be on the radar screen of other FBS schools should Idaho make it to 6-6 or better this year. Maybe, this year is their last-gasp effort to sneak into a bowl for the first and possibly last time since 2009 and only the third time ever. Here’s a bit of trivia for you: Idaho was once a member of what is the Pac-12 Conference today. From1922 to 1959, the Vandals were in the same league as USC, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, and Stanford. The Idaho-Washington St. rivalry remains strong since the two schools are within walking distance of each other.

Marshall is off to its weakest start in the Doc Holliday tenure, but the Herd should begin to thunder this week against FAU. The Owls lost at Charlotte last week, and Coach Charlie Partridge will be doing his cooing from another pear tree next year.

Florida and Missouri both had last Saturday off, with the Gators’ bye week coming unexpectedly. The good news for Florida was that by watching the most recent game film of the team they were supposed to play last week (LSU), they just happened to watch this week’s opponent. We think the Gators win a rather dull, low-scoring affair in the 14-10 range.

Georgia has not looked brilliant for 60 minutes in any game this year, but even playing 20 minutes brilliantly this week should be enough to win over a Vanderbilt team that is “0 for” on the road in the SEC under Coach Derek Mason and has no passing game.

2. College Parlay @ +192
Arkansas St. over South Alabama
Ohio St. over Wisconsin
Ball St. over Buffalo
Memphis over Tulane

Arkansas State might replicate what Texas A&M did in 1967. The Red Wolves began the season 0-4 and could run the table after that start. South Alabama is a team that gets up for big-time opponents and seems to not show up against opponents not considered big-time.

Wisconsin’s incredibly difficult schedule is about to come down hard in Badgerland. After losing at Michigan, we expect Ohio State to make the home team fans a bit sad as they exit Camp Randall Stadium Saturday. There is an issue of team speed in this game, and UW will eventually succumb to it.

Ball State is on the cusp of being a rather decent team in MAC football, but they are not there yet. However, this Buffalo team is at the bottom of the league, and they lost at home to Kent State last week. The Cardinals look to pick up their biggest point differential win of the season.

Memphis will have a tough time in New Orleans on Saturday, as Tulane is one of those pesky teams that opponents do not enjoy playing. First-year Green Wave coach Willie Fritz is known for his unique style of multiple option running and play-action passing plays, and his offense is eating up the clock with a true freshman quarterback guiding it, but it is the TU defense that is really getting the job done. It just goes to show that the best defense in football is a good time-consuming offense. Still, it is asking a bit too much to expect a green Green Wave squad to upset a team that thinks they can now win the West Division of the AAC.

3. College Parlay @ +172
Florida Int’l. over Charlotte
Ohio U over Eastern Michigan
BYU over Mississippi St.

Ron Turner has been in this boat before. When he coached at Illinois, Turner endured some lean seasons with just two wins, before surprising the nation with a trip to the Rose Bowl and upset of top-ranked Ohio State. Turner has slowly improved FIU from one to four to five wins in his three years in Miami, and the Panthers now could contend for a minor bowl. In order to do so, they have to beat a Charlotte team that just gained a little confidence with their first ever CUSA win last week. We expect FIU to win by at least 10-14 points.

Frank Solich has the Ohio Bobcats in the driver’s seat to win the MAC East this year, as his chief competition, Akron, has a tougher conference schedule, and the season finale between the two is in Athens. The Bobcats respect this EMU team, because this Eagles’ team is 4-2 and thinks it is going to win two more games this year. It was a tough choice, but we sided with OU in this game.

Mississippi State appears to be the 13th best team in the SEC this year, and the Bulldogs already have a home out-of-conference loss to South Alabama. Having to travel to Utah to face a BYU team that is about two touchdowns better today than they were at the start of the season means another loss for the SEC school.

4. NFL Parlay @ +220
New England over Cincinnati
Buffalo over San Francisco
Oakland over Kansas City

Do you expect Tom Brady to lose to anybody in his home debut? We’d go with the Pats to beat the NFC Pro Bowl team this week. Cincinnati could be out of the playoff race after this week, and Marvin Lewis could be in jeopardy of losing his job if the Bengals fall to third in the AFC North.

San Francisco must travel almost 3,000 to the Ontario border to face a mean Buffalo team that has turned things around since their Monday Night debacle against the Jets. Colin Kaepernick will get his first start, and we would not be surprised if subconsciously, the officials see an extra penalty here or there that costs the 49ers a crucial first down. Rex Ryan can sniff playoffs with this Bills’ team. It’s been a very long dry spell for Buffalo, even longer than the Raiders’ dry spell, and a win Sunday puts Buffalo at 4-2.

If you haven’t read our NFL preview from Tuesday, you should read what we had to write about the Oakland – Kansas City rivalry.

Link: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/nfl-ratings-and-spreads-for-week-5-october-13-17-2016/

This game promises to be one of the best between these two franchises since the old Daryle Lamonica vs. Len Dawson days. The game even shapes up to play like it was from 1968–Oakland has the wide-open high-octane offense and some big play defensive stars, while Kansas City has the better ball-control offense to go with a top-flight defense. All that will be missing is the odd characters like Ben Davidson, Buck Buchanan, Fred Williamson, and Fred Biletnikoff, who wore shoulder pads about as thick as tissue paper and used enough Stickem that he could catch a pass without using his fingers.

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 12-15, 2016

Happy Thanksgiving!

Yes, it’s the second Monday in October, and the Oktoberfest Parade was a dandy this year.  That doubleheader football classic continues as these words are typed.

The spicy, not sweet, pumpkin pie was delicious again, and the crisp cool weather with snow due by Friday creates the perfect festive environment.  Plus, there are no wild dashes to the stores tomorrow.

For those of you readers in the lower 48 not familiar with what us PiRates speak of, today is Canadian Thanksgiving.  It is actually somewhat older than the holiday celebrated in the States.

The Kitchener-Waterloo Oktoberfest Parade features floats, pretty lasses waving until their hands go numb, and all the fun and frivolity of any parade in the Lower 48.  Rather than sponsor a store to begin selling for the next big holiday, this parade concentrates on raising funds with the Onkel Hans Food Drive.

The Lions did play today, but it was the British Columbia Lions.  They fell in a heartbreaker to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers 37-35.  We have friends that call the winners “Winterpeg.”  In the nightcap, Calgary is playing Toronto, and the game is currently nearing halftime with CGY in the lead.

Our hats and hearts go to our friends and patrons in Canada on your special day.  Your nation has opened its heart to our PiRate family in the past, and you are our extended family in our book.  We hope to keep a certain jewelry designer’s paws off all that amethyst in NW Ontario, for she would like nothing more than to bring it all home with her and make beautiful jewelry as she has done before.

Cinderella’s Slipper Didn’t Fit This Time

We were all prepared to recall the incredibly fantasy-like feats of the Cardiac Indiana Hoosiers of 1967, and it would have been for good reason.  When Tennessee almost pulled a 12-foot rabbit out of their hat Saturday afternoon in College Station, Texas, it might have topped the Hoosiers’ unexpected run to the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl in 1967.

Alas, the Vols ran out of Aladdins’ lamps to rub, and they were shocked back to reality in double overtime.  With Alabama coming to Knoxville this week, don’t expect any miracles.  Nick Saban’s Tide will keep the throttle at full-speed even if the Tide go up 21 points quickly.

Are We Looking At Another Great Big Ten Finale

Ohio State and Michigan are both undefeated, both in the top 5, both averaging at  least 50 points per game, and both giving up less than a dozen points per game as the season is halfway in the books.

It looks close to a sure thing that one of these two teams will make the Playoffs at the end of the season and enter said games at 13-0.  Yes, Nebraska is still unbeaten, but the Cornhuskers appear to be about 14-17 points weaker than either East Division power.  There is a chance both teams could find a way into the 4-team scramble if Clemson, Washington, and the loser of the Alabama-Texas A&M game all lose another game.

In the Days of Woody Hayes in Columbus Bo Schembechler in Ann Arbor, there were two very special games between these two teams when both were undefeated with the Rose Bowl (the only bowl available to a Big Ten team) on the line.   The first time was in 1970.

The 1969 Ohio State team looked like the best team in college football since the 1945 Army Cadets.  They destroyed all eight opponents on their schedule.  Michigan had improved week-to-week after losing big to a Missouri team that would win the Big 8 and play in the Orange Bowl.  The Wolverines entered the 1969 finale just one game behind the Buckeyes in the Big Ten race, so an unlikely upset win would put the Maize and Blue in the Rose Bowl.  Nobody outside of Michigan gave the Wolverines a chance to win the game, but a basket full of OSU turnovers led to an incredible upset.

Now, in 1970, Ohio State was ready for revenge.  The entire campus was prepared for war.  The Buckeyes had won all their games again leading up to this one, and this time Michigan had won all their games.  This time, Michigan looked like the more unbeatable team.  The Wolverines had just blown out Iowa almost like they blew out Rutgers this past weekend.  Ohio State had barely edged a Purdue team that was much weaker than the Boilermakers’ previous four editions.

As wont to be when Woody’s team faced Bo’s team, the game was a defensive struggle for 60 minutes.  Michigan couldn’t move the ball at all the entire day, while Ohio State found a lot of success running inside the tackles and then faking inside and running outside.  However, it did not produce points.  It took a blocked extra point attempt to decide this game, as Ohio State won 10-9 to earn a trip to the Rose Bowl.  In Pasadena, the Buckeyes were not prepared to face the passing game of Stanford’s Jim Plunkett, as the Indians (not yet the Cardinal) pulled off a big upset and opened the door for Nebraska to take the first of two consecutive national titles.

As the season continues, and if both teams continue to win, we will give a short history of the 1973 and 2006 games.  If the two teams are 11-0 when they play in November, it will outrank the Game of the Century of 2006, when Ohio State was #1 and Michigan was #2.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	131.8	124.8	131.5	129.4
2	Michigan	129.0	126.5	129.5	128.3
3	Ohio St.	126.2	125.6	127.3	126.4
4	Louisville	127.8	122.1	127.9	125.9
5	Washington	128.2	120.8	128.3	125.8
6	Clemson	127.7	120.1	126.9	124.9
7	LSU	123.8	118.6	123.0	121.8
8	Virginia Tech	120.7	119.9	121.3	120.6
9	Tennessee	121.2	118.1	120.8	120.0
10	Oklahoma	119.8	117.7	119.6	119.0
11	Miami	120.4	113.5	120.3	118.1
12	Auburn	118.2	116.3	118.4	117.6
13	Florida St.	119.3	112.4	118.5	116.7
14	Texas A&M	117.0	115.2	116.8	116.3
15	Houston	115.1	113.2	117.1	115.1
16	Ole Miss	116.8	110.6	116.3	114.6
17	Wisconsin	114.7	112.7	115.2	114.2
18	Oklahoma St.	113.8	114.8	113.6	114.1
19	Colorado	114.7	110.3	114.8	113.3
20	North Carolina	115.3	109.1	114.9	113.1
21	Pittsburgh	114.4	110.8	113.5	112.9
22	Florida	112.6	115.2	110.8	112.9
23	USC	114.8	110.6	112.4	112.6
24	Washington St.	113.0	109.8	113.1	112.0
25	Nebraska	113.2	109.6	113.2	112.0
26	Baylor	111.3	111.4	111.9	111.5
27	Notre Dame	113.1	109.7	111.6	111.5
28	UCLA	111.9	110.6	111.4	111.3
29	Iowa	112.4	109.5	111.8	111.2
30	Stanford	113.6	107.0	112.3	111.0
31	South Florida	111.5	109.1	112.3	111.0
32	Boise St.	109.9	110.8	111.6	110.8
33	Western Michigan	110.4	109.5	112.1	110.7
34	Texas	110.5	111.8	109.7	110.7
35	Arkansas	112.2	107.7	109.7	109.9
36	TCU	109.3	110.8	108.8	109.6
37	Georgia	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1
38	Georgia Tech	109.8	105.5	108.9	108.1
39	North Carolina St.	109.1	106.4	108.7	108.1
40	Utah	110.5	105.0	108.5	108.0
41	Kansas St.	107.1	109.8	107.0	108.0
42	Mississippi St.	108.6	106.7	107.5	107.6
43	BYU	109.5	103.6	109.1	107.4
44	West Virginia	107.8	106.7	107.2	107.2
45	Penn St.	106.8	108.8	105.6	107.1
46	Arizona St.	107.3	106.6	106.3	106.8
47	Michigan St.	107.3	106.5	105.4	106.4
48	Texas Tech	107.0	106.1	105.1	106.1
49	Northwestern	107.8	102.9	106.3	105.7
50	Oregon	105.7	104.1	104.7	104.8
51	Memphis	106.1	102.4	104.8	104.5
52	Toledo	104.5	103.5	105.3	104.4
53	Maryland	104.0	107.2	102.0	104.4
54	Indiana	102.8	105.9	102.5	103.7
55	Minnesota	103.6	102.1	103.2	103.0
56	Wake Forest	103.5	101.6	103.0	102.7
57	Virginia	103.5	101.2	103.0	102.6
58	Missouri	103.0	102.0	102.6	102.6
59	Arizona	103.3	100.9	101.9	102.0
60	San Diego St.	101.7	100.1	104.0	102.0
61	California	104.8	97.5	102.5	101.6
62	Temple	100.8	100.6	100.9	100.8
63	Navy	100.7	100.6	100.4	100.6
64	Air Force	99.5	100.2	99.9	99.9
65	Duke	99.5	100.2	98.4	99.4
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	97.6	99.3	99.3
67	South Carolina	99.3	98.8	98.7	99.0
68	Tulsa	97.8	100.2	98.4	98.8
69	Boston College	99.0	98.4	98.7	98.7
70	Central Michigan	97.8	99.5	98.5	98.6
71	Western Kentucky	99.3	96.0	100.2	98.5
72	Iowa St.	98.7	98.1	98.1	98.3
73	Appalachian St.	97.5	97.0	99.3	97.9
74	Syracuse	99.6	96.3	97.7	97.9
75	Kentucky	97.6	99.2	96.7	97.8
76	Cincinnati	97.5	97.8	97.6	97.7
77	Connecticut	97.4	95.3	97.2	96.7
78	Army	92.8	101.2	95.8	96.6
79	Illinois	97.0	93.7	96.0	95.6
80	Troy	93.1	97.7	95.1	95.3
81	Middle Tennessee	94.3	95.7	94.8	94.9
82	Central Florida	93.9	96.3	94.2	94.8
83	Ohio	91.2	98.7	91.7	93.9
84	Utah St.	93.0	95.5	92.7	93.7
85	Northern Illinois	92.5	93.8	93.6	93.3
86	Purdue	94.0	92.3	93.2	93.2
87	Oregon St.	95.2	90.8	93.4	93.1
88	Louisiana Tech	91.9	93.1	93.2	92.7
89	East Carolina	91.7	93.7	91.9	92.4
90	Georgia Southern	91.3	91.3	93.5	92.1
91	New Mexico	90.7	93.6	91.2	91.9
92	Southern Mississippi	91.3	92.3	91.9	91.9
93	SMU	91.0	90.6	93.1	91.6
94	Akron	88.6	94.1	90.3	91.0
95	Old Dominion	88.8	92.3	89.4	90.2
96	Rutgers	91.1	88.7	89.7	89.9
97	UNLV	88.3	91.9	88.6	89.6
98	Wyoming	88.7	88.7	89.3	88.9
99	Arkansas St.	87.7	89.5	89.3	88.8
100	Nevada	87.0	90.1	87.8	88.3
101	Marshall	86.4	89.3	87.7	87.8
102	Ball St.	86.5	88.0	87.5	87.3
103	Kansas	86.2	92.2	83.5	87.3
104	Colorado St.	86.0	88.1	86.5	86.9
105	South Alabama	84.0	91.1	85.4	86.8
106	Kent St.	86.0	87.6	86.5	86.7
107	Tulane	85.0	89.4	85.7	86.7
108	UTSA	82.4	89.4	85.3	85.7
109	Georgia St.	82.2	86.7	84.1	84.3
110	Bowling Green	84.2	84.7	83.9	84.3
111	San Jose St.	84.0	84.6	83.8	84.1
112	Miami (O)	83.0	84.4	84.5	84.0
113	Eastern Michigan	82.3	85.3	83.4	83.7
114	Hawaii	84.2	82.7	83.8	83.6
115	Massachusetts	80.6	87.5	81.9	83.3
116	Rice	80.9	87.7	80.9	83.2
117	Fresno St.	80.2	84.5	79.8	81.5
118	Florida International	79.6	84.6	79.7	81.3
119	UL-Lafayette	76.9	84.4	78.6	80.0
120	North Texas	78.9	81.5	79.5	80.0
121	Florida Atlantic	76.5	81.6	79.6	79.2
122	Idaho	76.6	82.4	77.9	79.0
123	Buffalo	75.3	83.0	76.1	78.2
124	New Mexico St.	73.4	76.6	74.3	74.8
125	Charlotte	70.9	76.7	71.3	73.0
126	UTEP	70.3	74.9	71.3	72.2
127	UL-Monroe	69.6	74.5	70.1	71.4
128	Texas St.	69.6	71.0	70.6	70.4
PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.3	110.0	111.5	111.3
2	ACC	112.1	108.4	111.5	110.7
3	Pac-12	110.3	106.2	109.1	108.5
4	Big Ten	107.9	106.6	107.2	107.2
5	Big 12	107.2	108.0	106.5	107.2
6	Independents	99.0	100.5	99.6	99.7
7	AAC	92.0	91.7	92.3	92.0
8	MWC	91.1	92.6	91.6	91.8
9	MAC	90.2	92.7	91.1	91.3
10	CUSA	84.0	87.3	85.0	85.4
11	Sun Belt	82.0	85.7	83.5	83.7

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	111.5	109.1	112.3	111.0
Temple	100.8	100.6	100.9	100.8
Cincinnati	97.5	97.8	97.6	97.7
Connecticut	97.4	95.3	97.2	96.7
Central Florida	93.9	96.3	94.2	94.8
East Carolina	91.7	93.7	91.9	92.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	115.1	113.2	117.1	115.1
Memphis	106.1	102.4	104.8	104.5
Navy	100.7	100.6	100.4	100.6
Tulsa	97.8	100.2	98.4	98.8
SMU	91.0	90.6	93.1	91.6
Tulane	85.0	89.4	85.7	86.7
AAC Averages	92.0	91.7	92.3	92.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	127.8	122.1	127.9	125.9
Clemson	127.7	120.1	126.9	124.9
Florida St.	119.3	112.4	118.5	116.7
North Carolina St.	109.1	106.4	108.7	108.1
Wake Forest	103.5	101.6	103.0	102.7
Boston College	99.0	98.4	98.7	98.7
Syracuse	99.6	96.3	97.7	97.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	120.7	119.9	121.3	120.6
Miami	120.4	113.5	120.3	118.1
North Carolina	115.3	109.1	114.9	113.1
Pittsburgh	114.4	110.8	113.5	112.9
Georgia Tech	109.8	105.5	108.9	108.1
Virginia	103.5	101.2	103.0	102.6
Duke	99.5	100.2	98.4	99.4
ACC Averages	112.1	108.4	111.5	110.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.8	117.7	119.6	119.0
Oklahoma St.	113.8	114.8	113.6	114.1
Baylor	111.3	111.4	111.9	111.5
Texas	110.5	111.8	109.7	110.7
TCU	109.3	110.8	108.8	109.6
Kansas St.	107.1	109.8	107.0	108.0
West Virginia	107.8	106.7	107.2	107.2
Texas Tech	107.0	106.1	105.1	106.1
Iowa St.	98.7	98.1	98.1	98.3
Kansas	86.2	92.2	83.5	87.3
Big 12 Averages	107.2	108.0	106.5	107.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	129.0	126.5	129.5	128.3
Ohio St.	126.2	125.6	127.3	126.4
Penn St.	106.8	108.8	105.6	107.1
Michigan St.	107.3	106.5	105.4	106.4
Maryland	104.0	107.2	102.0	104.4
Indiana	102.8	105.9	102.5	103.7
Rutgers	91.1	88.7	89.7	89.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	114.7	112.7	115.2	114.2
Nebraska	113.2	109.6	113.2	112.0
Iowa	112.4	109.5	111.8	111.2
Northwestern	107.8	102.9	106.3	105.7
Minnesota	103.6	102.1	103.2	103.0
Illinois	97.0	93.7	96.0	95.6
Purdue	94.0	92.3	93.2	93.2
Big Ten Averages	107.9	106.6	107.2	107.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	99.3	96.0	100.2	98.5
Middle Tennessee	94.3	95.7	94.8	94.9
Old Dominion	88.8	92.3	89.4	90.2
Marshall	86.4	89.3	87.7	87.8
Florida International	79.6	84.6	79.7	81.3
Florida Atlantic	76.5	81.6	79.6	79.2
Charlotte	70.9	76.7	71.3	73.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	91.9	93.1	93.2	92.7
Southern Mississippi	91.3	92.3	91.9	91.9
UTSA	82.4	89.4	85.3	85.7
Rice	80.9	87.7	80.9	83.2
North Texas	78.9	81.5	79.5	80.0
UTEP	70.3	74.9	71.3	72.2
CUSA Averages	84.0	87.3	85.0	85.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	113.1	109.7	111.6	111.5
BYU	109.5	103.6	109.1	107.4
Army	92.8	101.2	95.8	96.6
Massachusetts	80.6	87.5	81.9	83.3
Independents Averages	99.0	100.5	99.6	99.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	91.2	98.7	91.7	93.9
Akron	88.6	94.1	90.3	91.0
Kent St.	86.0	87.6	86.5	86.7
Bowling Green	84.2	84.7	83.9	84.3
Miami (O)	83.0	84.4	84.5	84.0
Buffalo	75.3	83.0	76.1	78.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	110.4	109.5	112.1	110.7
Toledo	104.5	103.5	105.3	104.4
Central Michigan	97.8	99.5	98.5	98.6
Northern Illinois	92.5	93.8	93.6	93.3
Ball St.	86.5	88.0	87.5	87.3
Eastern Michigan	82.3	85.3	83.4	83.7
MAC Averages	90.2	92.7	91.1	91.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	109.9	110.8	111.6	110.8
Air Force	99.5	100.2	99.9	99.9
Utah St.	93.0	95.5	92.7	93.7
New Mexico	90.7	93.6	91.2	91.9
Wyoming	88.7	88.7	89.3	88.9
Colorado St.	86.0	88.1	86.5	86.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	101.7	100.1	104.0	102.0
UNLV	88.3	91.9	88.6	89.6
Nevada	87.0	90.1	87.8	88.3
San Jose St.	84.0	84.6	83.8	84.1
Hawaii	84.2	82.7	83.8	83.6
Fresno St.	80.2	84.5	79.8	81.5
MWC Averages	91.1	92.6	91.6	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	128.2	120.8	128.3	125.8
Washington St.	113.0	109.8	113.1	112.0
Stanford	113.6	107.0	112.3	111.0
Oregon	105.7	104.1	104.7	104.8
California	104.8	97.5	102.5	101.6
Oregon St.	95.2	90.8	93.4	93.1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colorado	114.7	110.3	114.8	113.3
USC	114.8	110.6	112.4	112.6
UCLA	111.9	110.6	111.4	111.3
Utah	110.5	105.0	108.5	108.0
Arizona St.	107.3	106.6	106.3	106.8
Arizona	103.3	100.9	101.9	102.0
Pac-12 Averages	110.3	106.2	109.1	108.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	121.2	118.1	120.8	120.0
Florida	112.6	115.2	110.8	112.9
Georgia	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1
Missouri	103.0	102.0	102.6	102.6
Vanderbilt	100.8	97.6	99.3	99.3
South Carolina	99.3	98.8	98.7	99.0
Kentucky	97.6	99.2	96.7	97.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.8	124.8	131.5	129.4
LSU	123.8	118.6	123.0	121.8
Auburn	118.2	116.3	118.4	117.6
Texas A&M	117.0	115.2	116.8	116.3
Ole Miss	116.8	110.6	116.3	114.6
Arkansas	112.2	107.7	109.7	109.9
Mississippi St.	108.6	106.7	107.5	107.6
SEC Averages	112.3	110.0	111.5	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.5	97.0	99.3	97.9
Troy	93.1	97.7	95.1	95.3
Georgia Southern	91.3	91.3	93.5	92.1
Arkansas St.	87.7	89.5	89.3	88.8
South Alabama	84.0	91.1	85.4	86.8
Georgia St.	82.2	86.7	84.1	84.3
UL-Lafayette	76.9	84.4	78.6	80.0
Idaho	76.6	82.4	77.9	79.0
New Mexico St.	73.4	76.6	74.3	74.8
UL-Monroe	69.6	74.5	70.1	71.4
Texas St.	69.6	71.0	70.6	70.4
Sun Belt Averages	82.0	85.7	83.5	83.7

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Michigan
5	Washington
6	Texas A&M
7	Louisville
8	Tennessee
9	Nebraska
10	Wisconsin
11	Florida St.
12	Houston
13	Ole Miss
14	Western Michigan
15	Oklahoma
16	Baylor
17	Boise St.
18	Miami (Fla)
19	Virginia Tech
20	LSU
21	West Virginia
22	Florida
23	Stanford
24	South Florida
25	Auburn
26	Arkansas
27	Utah
28	Georgia
29	USC
30	Washington St.
31	Arizona St.
32	Colorado
33	North Carolina
34	Navy
35	North Carolina St.
36	Memphis
37	TCU
38	UCLA
39	Penn St.
40	Pittsburgh
41	Air Force
42	Kansas St.
43	Toledo
44	Wake Forest
45	Oklahoma St.
46	Iowa
47	BYU
48	Troy
49	Maryland
50	Georgia Tech
51	Indiana
52	San Diego St.
53	California
54	Texas Tech
55	Tulsa
56	Appalachian St.
57	Northwestern
58	Georgia Southern
59	Minnesota
60	Central Michigan
61	Mississippi St.
62	Central Florida
63	Oregon
64	Kentucky
65	Akron
66	Michigan St.
67	Texas
68	Louisiana Tech
69	Wyoming
70	Western Kentucky
71	Arizona
72	South Carolina
73	Temple
74	Notre Dame
75	Old Dominion
76	Southern Miss.
77	Boston College
78	Duke
79	Ohio
80	South Alabama
81	Connecticut
82	Middle Tennessee
83	Missouri
84	Army
85	Virginia
86	Tulane
87	East Carolina
88	Vanderbilt
89	Cincinnati
90	Oregon St.
91	Colorado St.
92	Purdue
93	Eastern Michigan
94	Rutgers
95	Utah St.
96	Illinois
97	Syracuse
98	Idaho
99	Iowa St.
100	Hawaii
101	UL-Lafayette
102	Northern Illinois
103	UTSA
104	Ball St.
105	Arkansas St.
106	Nevada
107	Georgia St.
108	SMU
109	Texas St.
110	Marshall
111	New Mexico
112	North Texas
113	UNLV
114	New Mexico St.
115	Kent St.
116	Bowling Green
117	Kansas
118	UL-Monroe
119	Massachusetts
120	Florida Int’l.
121	Buffalo
122	Charlotte
123	San Jose St.
124	Fresno St.
125	Florida Atlantic
126	UTEP
127	Miami (O)
128	Rice

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 12-15
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wednesday, October 12
UL-Lafayette	Appalachian St.	-18.1	-8.1	-18.2
Thursday, October 13
East Carolina	Navy	-6.0	-3.9	-5.5
Friday, October 14
Louisville	Duke	31.3	24.9	32.5
Tulane	Memphis	-18.6	-10.5	-16.6
Fresno St.	San Diego St.	-18.5	-12.6	-21.2
BYU	Mississippi St.	3.9	-0.1	4.6
Saturday, October 15
Georgia	Vanderbilt	11.7	14.1	12.7
Clemson	North Carolina St.	21.6	16.7	21.2
Purdue	Iowa	-15.9	-14.7	-16.1
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	15.7	10.9	15.6
Texas Tech	West Virginia	2.2	2.4	0.9
Rutgers	Illinois	-3.9	-3.0	-4.3
Maryland	Minnesota	3.4	8.1	1.8
Georgia Tech	Georgia Southern	20.5	16.2	17.4
Virginia	Pittsburgh	-7.9	-6.6	-7.5
Ohio U	Eastern Michigan	11.9	16.4	10.7
Miami (O)	Kent St.	-1.0	-1.2	-0.1
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	-3.0	1.7	-3.4
Akron	Western Michigan	-18.8	-12.4	-18.8
Florida St.	Wake Forest	18.8	13.8	18.5
Buffalo	Ball St.	-9.2	-3.0	-9.4
Toledo	Bowling Green	22.3	20.8	23.4
Northern Illinois	Central Michigan	-2.3	-2.7	-1.9
Massachusetts	Louisiana Tech	-8.8	-3.1	-8.8
Baylor	Kansas	28.1	22.2	31.4
Tennessee	Alabama	-7.6	-3.7	-7.7
Arizona	USC	-8.5	-6.7	-7.5
Air Force (*)	New Mexico	8.8	6.6	8.7
Michigan St.	Northwestern	2.5	6.6	2.1
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	8.1	7.4	8.4
Troy	Georgia St.	13.9	14.0	14.0
Indiana	Nebraska	-7.9	-0.7	-7.7
Syracuse	Virginia Tech	-18.1	-20.6	-20.6
Oregon St.	Utah	-12.3	-11.2	-12.1
Florida	Missouri	12.6	16.2	11.2
Idaho	New Mexico St.	6.2	8.8	6.6
Charlotte	Florida Int’l	-6.2	-5.4	-5.9
Marshall	Florida Atlantic	12.9	10.7	11.1
Rice	UTSA	1.0	0.8	-1.9
Arkansas	Ole Miss	-1.6	0.1	-3.6
UL-Monroe	Texas St.	2.0	5.5	1.5
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	6.7	1.4	6.9
South Florida	Connecticut	17.1	16.8	18.1
Houston	Tulsa	20.3	16.0	21.7
Texas	Iowa St.	14.8	16.0	14.6
LSU	Southern Miss.	34.5	28.3	33.1
Notre Dame	Stanford	2.5	5.7	2.3
Central Florida	Temple	-3.9	-1.3	-3.7
Colorado	Arizona St.	10.4	6.7	11.5
Wisconsin	Ohio St.	-8.5	-9.9	-9.1
Boise St.	Colorado St.	26.9	25.7	28.1
Washington St.	UCLA	4.1	2.2	4.7
San Jose St.	Nevada	-0.5	-3	-1.5
Hawaii	UNLV	-0.1	-5.2	-0.8
(*) Game to be played in Dallas

FBS vs. FCS	Week 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	31

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Colorado St.	vs.	Louisiana Tech
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Washington St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Connecticut	vs.	Appalachian St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	vs.	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Old Dominion	vs.	Ga. Southern
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	vs.	Toledo
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Houston	vs.	W. Kentucky
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Air Force	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ball St.	vs.	Wyoming
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Western Mich.
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	Texas
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	vs.	Arkansas St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	Hawaii
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Memphis	vs.	Pittsburgh
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	[Akron]	vs.	Northwestern
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	[Southern Miss.]	vs.	Wake Forest
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Minnesota	vs.	North Texas
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	Georgia Tech	vs.	Temple
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	vs.	Stanford
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	vs.	California
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	N.Carolina St.	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Virginia Tech	vs.	TCU
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	vs.	USC
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Arkansas
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulsa	vs.	[South Alabama]
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	North Carolina	vs.	Auburn
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	vs.	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	vs.	LSU
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Florida St.	vs.	Utah
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	UTSA	vs.	Idaho
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Indiana	vs.	[Army]
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Louisville	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Georgia
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Florida
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Washington
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Ohio St.	vs.	Clemson
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Ole Miss
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Boise St.	vs.	Baylor
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	vs.	Colorado
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	vs.	Texas A&M
Nat’l Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Ohio St.
[Team]	At-Large Selection

NCAA Sweet 16 Preview

PiRate Ratings For Thursday and Friday

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Red	White	Blue
Villanova	Miami	3	3	2
Oklahoma	Texas A&M	2	2	-3
Kansas	Maryland	7	3	11
Oregon	Duke	1	-1	5
Virginia	Iowa St.	2	3	3
Notre Dame	Wisconsin	1	1	-2
Syracuse	Gonzaga	-3	-2	-2
North Carolina	Indiana	5	4	9

To those of you that read our annual bracket-picking story last week, you have our sincere apologies.  Never before has our top-rated team lost in its first game in the NCAA Tournament, but Middle Tennessee shocked us for the second time in NCAA Tournament history.  The first time, our founder had two tickets to the 1982 Mideast Regional, and once Kentucky disposed of little Middle Tennessee, he had a solid offer for $850 for each ticket two days later when Kentucky faced Louisville for the first time in a quarter century.  Those tickets became worthless when Middle upset Kentucky.

So, what’s left to say after Michigan State was sent packing?  There isn’t anything to say other than let’s get over it and proceed with our current update.

Because the entire world’s bracket has been busted after the first weekend, most places allow the fan to start anew with the Sweet 16 bracket.  If you still have faith in our system, and we do, since most of the 16 surviving teams fit the criteria, we will show you how we see it from here.

First, let us point out that no surprise teams remain in the tournament.  All 16 teams are consistent top programs, and only Gonzaga fails to come from a Power Conference.  Gonzaga today is what UNLV was 25 years ago and Davidson was 50 years ago.  The Bulldogs should eventually make it to the Final Four.

 

Here are the PiRate Criteria Stats for the remaining 16 teams.

Team	PPG	Def	Marg.	FGM	RbM	TOM	R+T	WLRd	SOS	OPos	DPos	Pos/G
Villanova	77.5	63.6	13.9	7.3	1.9	2.7	10.0	16-4	58.54	2450	2440	67.9
Miami	75.4	66.7	8.7	5.2	2.4	0.8	9.3	12-6	58.22	2257	2268	66.5
Oklahoma	80.6	70.7	9.9	5.3	2.2	-0.1	6.8	13-6	58.74	2448	2451	72.0
Texas A&M	76.8	66.1	10.7	4.8	4.5	2.3	15.5	11-7	55.70	2506	2500	69.5
Kansas	82.0	67.9	14.1	10.0	5.3	0.7	14.2	15-4	60.22	2548	2550	70.8
Maryland	76.1	66.3	9.7	8.3	3.1	-1.7	7.3	11-7	56.77	2367	2350	67.4
Oregon	78.9	68.5	10.4	4.6	3.4	2.8	14.7	12-6	60.01	2514	2513	69.8
Duke	79.7	70.2	9.5	1.9	-0.3	2.4	6.5	10-7	58.97	2341	2346	67.0
Virginia	70.9	59.5	11.3	7.2	3.8	2.4	13.5	13-7	60.05	2151	2146	61.4
Iowa St.	82.1	74.7	7.4	6.8	-0.2	0.9	4.2	9-9	58.96	2451	2468	72.3
Notre Dame	75.6	70.5	5.1	4.8	2.5	-0.5	7.8	9-9	57.25	2218	2228	65.4
Wisconsin	68.1	63.9	4.3	-0.1	3.0	1.1	10.8	9-7	58.14	2187	2198	64.5
Syracuse	70.4	64.8	5.5	2.2	-0.7	1.2	3.4	8-9	56.21	2233	2236	65.7
Gonzaga	79.4	65.6	13.8	8.9	7.5	-1.0	16.9	17-3	52.35	2392	2404	68.5
North Carolina	81.8	69.3	12.5	6.8	8.3	2.2	22.4	15-5	57.74	2558	2531	70.7
Indiana	82.5	69.0	13.5	6.3	6.9	-0.4	16.8	10-7	53.79	2351	2354	69.2

Here are the 4-Factors Numbers for the remaining 16 teams

Team	EFG	DEFG	OR%	DOR%	TO%	DTU%	FT*	DFT*
Villanova	55.1	46.3	28.4	28.7	16.4	20.4	21.9	17.0
Miami	54.0	47.7	30.2	29.2	16.4	17.5	25.2	17.7
Oklahoma	54.7	46.7	30.6	30.1	17.9	17.7	20.6	16.2
Texas A&M	51.6	47.1	34.9	29.2	17.4	20.8	22.0	17.9
Kansas	56.7	45.0	32.7	28.3	17.7	18.7	22.6	21.9
Maryland	55.7	46.2	29.8	29.7	19.0	16.6	23.6	16.8
Oregon	52.6	48.2	34.5	30.6	16.4	20.3	24.6	18.2
Duke	53.8	49.1	33.8	34.8	14.0	17.5	25.8	15.8
Virginia	54.8	48.3	30.2	25.4	15.1	19.1	20.8	18.8
Iowa St.	57.1	49.5	26.7	30.2	15.7	16.9	15.7	15.0
Notre Dame	54.1	49.2	33.0	31.5	15.3	14.5	21.4	17.2
Wisconsin	48.6	48.2	33.0	27.6	16.9	18.5	23.2	19.6
Syracuse	50.7	46.8	33.3	35.0	18.5	20.3	21.0	16.7
Gonzaga	55.4	44.7	32.3	25.6	16.8	15.2	22.3	17.2
North Carolina	52.0	47.2	39.9	29.9	15.4	18.6	20.8	17.9
Indiana	58.9	49.4	37.1	28.8	19.7	19.1	20.5	16.7

Sweet 16 Schedule

Thursday, March 23, 2016, Sweet 16 Games
Time (EDT)	Network	Seed	Team	Seed	Team
7:10 PM	CBS	2	Villanova	3	Miami
7:37 PM	TBS	2	Oklahoma	3	Texas A&M
9:40 PM	CBS	1	Kansas	5	Maryland
10:07 PM	TBS	1	Oregon	4	Duke
Friday, March 24, 2016, Sweet 16 Games
Time (EDT)	Network	Seed	Team	Seed	Team
7:10 PM	CBS	1	Virginia	4	Iowa St.
7:27 PM	TBS	6	Notre Dame	7	Wisconsin
9:40 PM	CBS	10	Syracuse	11	Gonzaga
9:57 PM	TBS	1	North Carolina	5	Indiana

 

Here is our updated bracket for the remainder of the tournament.  This uses our PiRate Criteria and is not the same thing as the PiRate Red-White-Blue Ratings above.

Sweet 16

Villanova over Miami

Texas A&M over Oklahoma

Kansas over Maryland

Oregon over Duke

Virginia over Iowa St.

Wisconsin over Notre Dame

Gonzaga over Syracuse

North Carolina over Indiana

 

Elite 8

Texas A&M over Villanova

Kansas over Oregon

Virginia over Wisconsin

North Carolina over Gonzaga

 

Semifinals

Kansas over Texas A&M

North Carolina over Virginia

 

Championship

Kansas over North Carolina

NCAA 3rd Round Picks–Sunday, March 20, 2016

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Red	White	Blue
Villanova	Iowa	5	4	8
Notre Dame	Stephen F. Austin	-1	4	-3
Oklahoma	VCU	6	4	-1
Syracuse	Middle Tennessee	6	10	5
Maryland	Hawaii	3	6	7
Texas A&M	Northern Iowa	7	9	10
Xavier	Wisconsin	6	4	8
Oregon	St. Joseph’s	5	4	8

 

Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Higher Seed	Lower Seed
12:10 PM	CBS	Villanova	Iowa
2:40 PM	CBS	Notre Dame	Stephen F. Austin
5:10 PM	CBS	Oklahoma	VCU
6:10 PM	TNT	Syracuse	Middle Tennessee
6:45 PM	TBS	Maryland	Hawaii
7:45 PM	TruTV	Texas A&M	Northern Iowa
8:40 PM	TNT	Xavier	Wisconsin
9:40 PM	TBS	Oregon	St. Joseph’s

 

 

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—February 15, 2016

The first of the conference tournament play gets underway two weeks from tomorrow (March 1). Needless to say all remaining games among contenders for at-large bids and for seeding in one-bid leagues have become vital. One wrong loss or one big win might alter the course of a half-dozen or more games.

The “Bubble” remains very slippery as of today, and it also remains rather weak. When you have teams two games below .500 in their league and just a tad above .500 overall still in contention for a possible at-large bid, you know it is either a weak year or a year with extremely competitive races.

We see a lot of parity this year, but we also believe it is a rather weak basketball season. Of course, when 20 players are in the NBA who could still be in college, it tends to weaken the college game.
Consider that Kentucky could still have Willie Cauley-Stein, Archie Goodwin, Julius Randle, James Young, and Karl Anthony-Towns on its roster.

The number of one-bid leagues remained roughly the same this week. A couple of teams expected to receive at-large bids from mid and low-major conferences remained the same, but the names have changed a little. Saint Mary’s went from an almost assured at-large team to a team that must win the West Coast Conference Tournament, following a Thursday night home loss to Pepperdine.

With road games against Gonzaga and San Francisco the next two Saturdays, the Gaels will either get back on the bubble with impressive wins or falter and guarantee a must-win in the WCC Tournament.

Wichita State has now lost two of three games, including their first at home after 43 consecutive wins at the Roundhouse. The Shockers are still on the good side of the Bubble, but a couple more losses and an early Arch Madness exit in St. Louis could make for a precipitous hold onto an at-large invitation. A weather makeup game against New Mexico State tonight will be an interesting contest, which you can tune in online at ESPN3 at 8 PM Eastern.

At one time, Valparaiso had a shot at earning an at-large spot in the Big Dance if they lost in the Horizon League Finals, but a second loss to Wright State and a killer closing schedule means the Crusaders may have a tough time hanging on to the number one seed, as they hold a slim lead over Wright State and Oakland.

Three teams moved higher up on the Bubble since our last report. Gonzaga had won six straight games until falling at SMU Saturday night, but the Bulldogs appear to be on the safe side of the Bubble for now. If the Zags beat Saint Mary’s Saturday night, they should be safe with just one WCC Tournament win.

San Diego State continues to lead the Mountain West. The Aztecs are three games up on New Mexico, and a 4-1 finish with a visit to the MWC semifinals should allow SDSU to get into the field of 68 as an at-large.

Finally, there is Monmouth. Usually, teams in low-major conferences rarely sniff at-large consideration, but the Hawks are not your typical MAAC team. With non-conference wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, USC, and Georgetown, and having won 12 of their last 13 games, Monmouth may be a power conference team’s worst nightmare.

Let’s take a brief look at the One-Bid Leagues this week. These bids will go to the conference tournament champions. Rather than repeat much of the same stuff from last week, let’s concentrate on the actual upcoming tournaments.

All Standings from the official NCAA website.
All Championship Game times are Eastern

One-Bid Leagues
America East
Site–Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
U Mass-Lowell is not eligible for the tournament, leaving eight teams to play a true 8-team bracket
Quarterfinals–March 2: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinals–March 7
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 11:00 AM

Current Standings

America East	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Stony Brook	13	0	22	4
Albany	10	3	21	7
New Hampshire	8	4	15	10
Vermont	7	5	15	12
Massachusetts Lowell	7	6	11	15
Maine	4	9	8	18
Binghamton	3	9	6	19
Hartford	2	10	7	20
UMBC	2	10	6	21

Atlantic Sun
Site–Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
Stetson is ineligible for the automatic NCAA bid, but the Hatters will be allowed to participate in the conference tournament; if Stetson wins the tournament, then the regular season champion will get the automatic bid.
Quarterfinals–March 1: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinals–March 3
Championship–March 6: ESPN2 @ 12:30 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic Sun	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
North Florida	7	4	18	10
N.J.I.T.	7	4	16	11
Jacksonville	7	4	15	13
Florida Gulf Coast	6	5	15	12
Lipscomb	6	5	10	18
Kennesaw State	5	6	9	18
Stetson	3	8	9	18
USC Upstate	3	8	9	19

Big Sky
Site: Reno
All 12 teams will be eligible
Opening Round–March 8: 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinals–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinals–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 8:45 PM

Current Standings

Big Sky	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Montana	11	2	16	8
Weber State	10	2	18	7
Eastern Washington	9	4	15	10
Idaho State	8	4	13	11
Idaho	8	5	16	10
North Dakota	7	6	12	12
Montana State	7	6	12	13
Northern Colorado	5	8	8	17
Portland State	4	8	8	15
Sacramento State	3	9	10	13
Southern Utah	2	11	4	19
Northern Arizona	2	11	4	20

Big South
Site: Campbell will host the conference tournament in Buies Creek, NC, with all 11 teams participating.
Opening Round–March 3: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinals–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5
Semifinals–March 5
Championship–March 6: ESPN2 @ 2:30 PM

Current Standings

Big South	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Winthrop	10	4	18	7
UNC Asheville	10	4	17	9
Coastal Carolina	10	5	16	9
High Point	9	5	16	9
Liberty	9	5	12	15
Gardner-Webb	8	7	13	14
Radford	7	7	14	12
Charleston Southern	5	10	9	17
Longwood	4	10	8	19
Campbell	4	11	10	15
Presbyterian	3	11	8	17

Big West
Site: Anaheim
The number nine team will be disqualified from the tournament, with the other eight playing at the Honda Center.
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 11:30 PM

Current Standings

Big West	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Hawaii	9	1	20	3
UC Irvine	8	2	19	7
Long Beach State	8	3	14	12
UC Santa Barbara	5	5	11	12
UC Davis	5	6	10	14
UC Riverside	4	7	13	14
Cal State Northridge	4	7	9	16
Cal Poly	3	8	9	15
Cal State Fullerton	2	9	9	15

Colonial Athletic
Site: Baltimore
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 4: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: NBC Sports Network @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Colonial Athletic	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
North Carolina-Wilmington	12	2	20	5
Hofstra	10	4	18	8
James Madison	9	5	19	8
William & Mary	9	5	17	8
Towson	9	5	18	9
Charleston	8	6	16	9
Northeastern	6	8	14	13
Elon	5	9	14	13
Delaware	1	13	6	19
Drexel	1	13	3	22

Conference USA
Site: Birmingham
Southern Miss. is ineligible. The remaining 13 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 8: 12 vs. 13
Second Round–March 9: 5 vs. 12/13, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12/13
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: Fox Sports 1 @ 2:30 PM

Current Standings

Conference USA	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
UAB	11	2	21	5
Middle Tennessee	10	3	18	7
Marshall	9	3	13	12
Louisiana Tech	8	4	19	6
Old Dominion	7	5	14	11
UTEP	7	6	15	11
Charlotte	6	6	10	15
Florida International	6	7	12	14
Florida Atlantic	5	8	7	19
Western Kentucky	4	8	12	13
North Texas	4	8	9	16
Rice	4	8	9	16
Southern Miss	4	8	7	16
UTSA	2	11	4	22

Horizon
Site: Detroit (Motor City Madness)
Northern Kentucky is ineligible for NCAA or NIT play, but they will participate in the Horizon Tournament
Opening Round–March 5: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 6: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Horizon	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Valparaiso	11	2	21	5
Oakland	10	4	18	9
Wright State	10	4	16	11
Milwaukee	7	6	16	10
Green Bay	7	6	15	11
Detroit	7	7	13	12
Northern Kentucky	5	9	9	16
Youngstown State	4	9	9	17
Cleveland State	3	10	8	18
Illinois-Chicago	3	10	5	19

Ivy
The Ivy League does not conduct a conference tournament, even though they claim that their conference tournament is a 14-game round robin. However, all ties for first place result in a playoff for the championship, regardless of whether one team swept another team. There can be multiple team playoffs, and there is a slight chance that three teams could finish 12-2 or 11-3 this year.
There is a strong indication that the Ivy League will implement a conference tournament in the near future, possibly as early as next season.
If there is a playoff between two teams, it will be held on Saturday, March 12. If there is a three-way tie for first, two teams will play on Thursday, March 10, with the winner playing the third team on March 12.

Current Standings

Ivy League	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Yale	8	0	17	5
Princeton	6	1	16	5
Columbia	6	2	17	8
Pennsylvania	3	4	9	12
Harvard	2	6	10	14
Cornell	2	6	9	13
Dartmouth	2	6	8	14
Brown	2	6	7	15

Mid-American
Site: Opening round games will be played on campus sites on March 7. Final three rounds will be played in Cleveland.
Opening Round–March 7: 12 @ 5, 11 @ 6, 10 @ 7, 9 @ 8
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 7:30 PM

Current Standings

Mid-American	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
EAST	W	L	W	L
Akron	9	3	20	5
Ohio	7	5	16	8
Kent State	7	5	16	9
Buffalo	7	5	14	11
Bowling Green	4	8	13	12
Miami (OH)	3	9	9	16
WEST	W	L	W	L
Ball State	7	5	16	9
Toledo	7	5	16	9
Northern Illinois	6	6	17	8
Central Michigan	6	6	13	12
Eastern Michigan	5	7	13	12
Western Michigan	4	8	10	15

Mideastern Athletic
Site: Norfolk State will host this tournament in Norfolk.
Florida A&M is ineligible. The remaining 12 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 7: 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11 & March 8: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 9: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10 & March 10: 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Mid-Eastern	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Hampton	9	2	14	9
Norfolk State	9	2	13	13
South Carolina State	9	3	14	12
Bethune-Cookman	6	5	9	16
Savannah State	6	6	10	13
Maryland-Eastern Shore	5	6	8	18
North Carolina A&T	5	6	8	18
Howard	4	6	10	15
North Carolina Central	4	6	9	15
Coppin State	4	7	6	18
Florida A&M	3	7	7	16
Morgan State	3	7	5	18
Delaware State	3	7	5	20

Northeast
Site: Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
9th and 10th place teams will be disqualified, while the top 8 teams will participate in the tournament.
Quarterfinal–March 2: 8 @ 1, 7 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinal–March 5
Championship–March 8: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Northeast	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Wagner	9	5	16	9
Fairleigh Dickinson	9	5	13	12
St. Francis (PA)	9	5	13	12
Mount St. Mary’s	9	5	12	15
Sacred Heart	8	6	9	16
St. Francis (BKN)	7	6	11	15
LIU Brooklyn	6	7	12	12
Robert Morris	6	8	8	19
Bryant University	4	10	7	20
Central Connecticut State	2	12	3	22

Ohio Valley
Site: Tennessee State & Belmont are the home teams in Nashville
The top 8 of the 12 teams will qualify for the tournament. The top 2 seeds get byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 2: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 3: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 4: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 5: ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Ohio Valley	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
EAST	W	L	W	L
Tennessee Tech	10	3	18	8
Belmont	10	3	18	9
Tennessee State	9	3	18	7
Morehead State	8	5	14	11
Eastern Kentucky	5	8	14	14
Jacksonville State	4	9	8	20
WEST	W	L	W	L
Murray State	8	5	14	12
Tennessee-Martin	7	5	15	12
Eastern Illinois	7	6	11	15
Austin Peay	5	8	12	16
SIU-Edwardsville	2	11	5	20
Southeast Missouri State	2	11	5	21

Patriot
Site: Campus Sites. All games will be played on home court of higher seed.
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 1: 9 @ 8, 10 @ 7
Quarterfinal–March 3: 8/9 @ 1, 7/10 @ 2, 6 @ 3, 5 @ 4
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 9: CBS Sports Network @ 7:30 PM

Current Standings

Patriot League	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Bucknell	10	4	13	12
Navy	9	5	18	9
Boston University	9	5	16	11
Lehigh	8	5	10	14
Colgate	8	6	12	13
Loyola (MD)	7	7	8	17
Army	6	8	15	11
Holy Cross	5	8	10	14
American University	5	9	7	18
Lafayette	2	12	5	20

Southern
Site: Asheville, NC
All 10 teams will participate
Opening Round–March 4: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: ESPN2 @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Southern	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Chattanooga	12	2	23	4
Furman	11	4	17	11
Wofford	10	4	14	13
East Tennessee State	9	4	16	10
Mercer	8	6	18	9
Western Carolina	6	7	11	15
UNC Greensboro	5	8	9	17
Citadel	3	11	10	17
Samford	3	12	12	16
Virginia Military	2	11	7	17

Southland
Site: Katy, TX (About 30 miles west of Downtown Houston) (Houston Baptist is quasi-home team)
Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas, and Incarnate World are not eligible.
The top 8 of the 10 remaining teams will participate. The top 2 seeds receive byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 9: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 10: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 11: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 12: ESPN2 @ 9:30 PM

Current Standings

Southland	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Stephen F. Austin	11	0	18	5
Texas A&M-CC	9	3	18	6
Incarnate Word	8	3	13	9
Houston Baptist	8	4	14	11
Sam Houston State	8	4	13	12
Abilene Christian	6	5	11	13
New Orleans	4	7	8	14
Southeastern Louisiana	4	7	6	18
Central Arkansas	4	7	5	16
Northwestern State	4	8	7	15
McNeese State	4	8	6	16
Nicholls State	3	9	7	19
Lamar	2	10	10	14

Southwestern Athletic
Site: Houston (Texas Southern will be the host team)
Alcorn State is ineligible for the NCAA & NIT, but the Braves will be allowed to participate in this tournament.
Opening Round–March 8: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 9: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10 & March 10: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 6:30 PM

Current Standings

Southwestern Athletic	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Texas Southern	10	1	11	12
Southern University	9	3	17	8
Alcorn State	9	3	11	12
Jackson State	8	4	13	12
Mississippi Valley State	5	7	5	21
Alabama A&M	4	8	8	13
Alabama State	4	8	9	15
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	4	8	6	20
Prairie View A&M	3	8	3	20
Grambling State	3	9	6	18

Summit
Site: Sioux Falls, SD
The number 9 team does not qualify. The remaining 8 teams participate.
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7 & March 6: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN2 @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Summit League	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
South Dakota State	9	3	20	6
IPFW	9	3	20	7
Nebraska-Omaha	9	4	17	10
IUPUI	7	5	11	16
North Dakota State	6	6	16	10
Denver	5	8	13	13
Oral Roberts	5	8	13	14
South Dakota	4	9	12	15
Western Illinois	2	10	9	14

Sun Belt
Site: New Orleans
The 9th, 10th, and 11th place teams do not qualify. The remaining 8 teams participate with the top 2 seeds receiving byes to the semifinals.
Opening Round–March 10: 5 vs. 8, 6 vs. 7
Quarterfinal–March 11: 3 vs. 6/7, 4 vs. 5/8
Semifinal–March 12: 1 vs. 4/5/8, 2 vs. 3/6/7
Championship–March 13: ESPN2 @ 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Sun Belt	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Arkansas-Little Rock	12	2	22	3
Louisiana-Lafayette	10	4	14	9
Texas-Arlington	8	5	17	7
Louisiana-Monroe	8	5	13	12
Arkansas State	7	6	11	14
Georgia Southern	7	7	11	13
Georgia State	6	8	13	10
South Alabama	6	8	11	14
Texas State	4	9	10	12
Appalachian State	4	10	6	19
Troy	3	11	8	17

Western Athletic
Site: Las Vegas
Grand Canyon is ineligible. The remaining 7 teams will participate.
Quarterfinal–March 10: 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semfinal–March 11: 1 vs. 4/5, 2/7 vs. 3/6
Championship–March 12: ESPN-U @ 11:00 PM

Current Standings

Western Athletic	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
New Mexico State	9	1	18	8
Grand Canyon	8	2	22	4
Cal State Bakersfield	8	2	18	7
Seattle	6	4	12	12
Utah Valley	4	6	10	15
UMKC	3	7	10	15
Texas Rio Grande Valley	2	8	6	19
Chicago State	0	10	4	23

Possible Two-Bid Leagues
These are the conferences where if the overwhelming favorite wins the conference tournament, there will only be one bid awarded to these leagues, but if the heavy favorite loses in the championship round or possibly semifinal round, there could be two bids awarded to these leagues, bursting the bubble of a probably undeserving at-large team from a power conference.

Metro Atlantic
Site: Siena will host the MAAC Tournament in Albany
Opening Round–March 3: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, & March 5: 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 6
Championship–March 7: ESPN @ 7:00 PM

Current Standings

Metro Atlantic Athletic	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Monmouth	13	2	21	5
Iona	11	4	14	10
Siena	11	5	18	9
St. Peter’s	9	6	11	13
Manhattan	8	6	11	12
Fairfield	8	7	14	11
Rider	7	9	11	16
Canisius	6	10	11	16
Quinnipiac	5	10	8	16
Niagara	4	12	6	21
Marist	2	13	5	19

Monmouth has a shot at receiving an at-large bid if they do not win the MAAC Tournament. Siena would be a tough out in a possible semifinal or championship game match, but the Hawks swept the Saints, including a 6-point win in Albany. At 28-6, Monmouth would have to be a serious candidate for an at-large bid, but we won’t discard the fact that politics play some part in the Selection Committee’s decision-making, so a borderline team from a power conference could take this spot away from a deserving Monmouth team should the Hawks hit a bump in the road in Albany.

Missouri Valley
Site: St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All 10 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 3: 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 4: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 5
Championship–March 6: CBS @ 2:00 PM

Current Standings

Missouri Valley	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Wichita State	12	2	18	7
Illinois State	10	4	16	11
Southern Illinois	9	5	20	7
Evansville	9	5	20	7
Northern Iowa	8	6	16	11
Indiana State	7	7	13	13
Missouri State	7	7	11	15
Loyola (IL)	5	9	12	14
Bradley	2	12	4	23
Drake	1	13	6	20

Mountain West
Site: Las Vegas (UNLV Hosts)
All 11 teams participate.
Opening Round–March 9: 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 10: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 11
Championship–March 12: CBS @ 6:00 PM

Current Standings

Mountain West	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
San Diego State	12	1	19	7
New Mexico	8	4	15	10
Boise State	8	5	17	9
Fresno State	7	5	16	9
Nevada	7	5	15	9
Colorado State	6	6	14	11
UNLV	6	7	15	11
Wyoming	5	8	12	14
Utah State	4	8	12	11
Air Force	3	10	12	14
San Jose State	3	10	8	17

San Diego State has one difficult game left on its regular conference schedule, a game at New Mexico, where the Lobos are tough to beat. If the Aztecs win that game and win out the regular season, their record will then be 24-7 with wins over California and two over New Mexico, plus losses to Utah, West Virginia, and Kansas. This looks like a rather thin resume, but the Aztecs currently hold onto a #46 RPI, and if they win out, that ranking will move up a little. SDSU would then have to make it to the championship round and lose before they would be a serious at-large candidate at 26-8.

West Coast
Site: Las Vegas
Pacific is ineligible. The remaining 9 teams will participate.
Opening Round–March 4: 8 vs. 9
Quarterfinal–March 5: 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5
Semifinal–March 7
Championship–March 8: ESPN @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

West Coast	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Gonzaga	12	2	20	6
Saint Mary’s	11	3	20	4
BYU	10	4	19	8
Pepperdine	9	6	16	10
San Francisco	7	7	13	11
Portland	5	9	11	16
Santa Clara	5	9	9	17
Pacific	5	9	7	17
Loyola Marymount	4	11	11	15
San Diego	3	11	8	17

What’s an NCAA Tournament without Gonzaga? The Bulldogs are to the 21st Century Big Dance what Marquette was to the 1970’s NCAA Tournament, the best program year in and year out not in a power conference. Saint Mary’s can no longer be considered a serious at-large candidate, but the Gaels could still work their way into contention by winning out, including a season-sweep over Gonzga.

The Power Conferences

American Athletic
Site: Orlando
SMU is ineligible. The remaining 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 10: 8 vs. 9 (ESPNU–3:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (ESPNNews–6 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: 1 vs. 8/9 (ESPN2–12PM), 4 vs. 5 (ESPN2–2PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (ESPNU–7PM), 3 vs. 6 (ESPNU–9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: ESPN2 @ 3 & 5 PM

Championship–March 13: ESPN @ 3:15 PM

Current Standings

American Athletic Conference	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Temple	10	3	16	8
SMU	9	3	21	3
Cincinnati	9	4	19	7
Connecticut	8	4	18	7
Houston	8	5	18	7
Tulsa	8	5	16	9
Memphis	5	7	14	11
UCF	5	7	11	12
Tulane	3	10	10	16
East Carolina	2	10	10	15
South Florida	2	11	5	21

Safe
—–

Close
Connecticut

Bubble
Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa

With wins over Wichita State, Connecticut, and SMU, Tulsa could have been cruising up to Last Four In status with a win at UConn Saturday. Falling just short in a frantic comeback, keeps the Golden Hurricane out of the Dance for now. Temple is the hot team with five consecutive wins boosting the Owls into first place ahead of SMU in the league standings. Still, their resume needs a little more upward tweaking. Cincinnati has won six of seven and eight of ten games, and the Bearcats have a chance to work their way into the Field of 68 by closing strong with two wins from among Tulsa, Connecticut, and SMU.

 

Atlantic 10
Site: Brooklyn
All 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: American Sports Network 12-13 (6:30PM), 11-14 (9PM)

Second Round–March 10: NBC Sports Network 8-9 (12PM), 5-12/13 (2:30 PM), 7-10 (6:30 PM), 6-11/14 (9PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: NBC Sports Network 1-8/9 (12 PM), 4-5/12/13 (2:30 PM), 2-7/10 (6:30 PM), 3-6/11/14 (9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: CBS Sports Network @ 1:30 PM & 4:00 PM

Championship–March 13: CBS @ 12:30 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic 10	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Dayton	11	1	21	3
Saint Joseph’s (PA)	10	2	21	4
Virginia Commonwealth	10	2	18	7
St. Bonaventure	9	3	17	6
George Washington	7	5	18	7
Davidson	6	6	14	9
Richmond	6	6	14	10
Rhode Island	6	6	14	11
Duquesne	5	7	15	10
Massachusetts	4	8	11	13
Fordham	3	9	12	11
George Mason	3	9	9	16
Saint Louis	3	9	8	16
La Salle	1	11	5	18

Safe
Dayton

Close
St. Joseph’s

Bubble
VCU, George Washington, St. Bonaventure

St. Joe’s has won nine of their last ten, and the Hawks could move to safe status with a midweek win over Dayton. Losing at UMass last week sent VCU down to the Bubble, and the Rams don’t seem to be clicking at crunch time like they did when Shaka Smart coached this team. GWU has fallen even more than VCU. The Colonials have only split their last eight games, and without a mad dash to the finish, they will be NIT-bound. St. Bonaventure owns a five-game winning streak, but the Bonnies must pick up a signature win on the road to climb high enough to earn an at-large bid. They will get that chance with a Saturday afternoon contest at Dayton.

 

Atlantic Coast
Site: Washington, D.C.
Louisville is ineligible. The remaining 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 8: ESPN2 12 vs. 13 (12PM), 11 vs. 14 (2 PM)

Second Round–March 9: ESPN 8 vs. 9 (12 PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (2 PM), ESPN2 7 vs. 10 (7 PM), 6 vs. 11/14 (9 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: ESPN 1 vs. 8/9 (12 PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (2 PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6/11/14 (9 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM & 9:00 PM

Championship– March 12: ESPN @ 9:00 PM

Current Standings

Atlantic Coast	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
North Carolina	10	2	21	4
Miami (FL)	9	3	20	4
Virginia	9	4	20	5
Notre Dame	9	4	18	7
Duke	8	4	19	6
Louisville	8	4	19	6
Clemson	8	5	15	10
Syracuse	8	5	18	8
Pittsburgh	6	6	17	7
Florida State	6	7	16	9
Virginia Tech	5	7	13	12
Georgia Tech	3	9	13	12
North Carolina State	3	9	13	12
Wake Forest	1	12	10	15
Boston College	0	12	7	18

Safe
Virginia, North Carolina, Miami (Fla.), Duke

Close
Notre Dame, Syracuse, Pittsburgh

Bubble
Florida State, Clemson
Duke moved into safe status with wins over Louisville and Virginia. With three straight wins over North Carolina, Clemson, and Louisville, Notre Dame is maybe one more win away from moving to the Safe line. Syracuse has won five in a row, and a Saturday win over Pittsburgh may be enough to move the Orangemen to Safe status. as for the Panthers, three consecutive losses and a 3-6 record after a 3-0 start in league play is quickly pushing them down to the Bubble. Pitt must correct the free fall and win at least three of their last six games and then once in the ACC Tournament to stay on the positive side of the Dance fence. Florida State faces must wins this week in games with Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. The Seminoles then need to win at least one of their last three against Duke, Notre Dame, and Syracuse and then probably win one ACC Tournament game before they become serious players. Clemson probably needs to get to 12-6 in league play to make the Tournament, because the Tigers don’t have much to show outside of league play with no impressive wins.

Bubble Buster: Virginia Tech has played the league leaders close and owns a win over Virginia. They will have to win four games in four days, but it is remotely possible, they could do it.

 

Big 12
Site: Kansas City
All 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: ESPNU 8 vs. 9 (7:00 PM), 7 vs. 10 (9:00 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: ESPN2 4 vs. 5 (12:30 PM), 1 vs. 8/9 (2:30 PM), ESPNU 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6 (9 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: ESPN or ESPN2 @ 7:00 PM & 9:00 PM

Championship–March 12: ESPN @ 6:00 PM

Current Standings

Big 12	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Kansas	9	3	21	4
West Virginia	9	3	20	5
Oklahoma	8	4	20	4
Baylor	7	5	18	7
Iowa State	7	5	18	7
Texas	7	5	16	9
Texas Tech	5	7	15	9
Kansas State	3	9	14	11
Oklahoma State	3	9	12	13
TCU	2	10	11	14

Safe
Oklahoma, Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa State

Close
Texas, Baylor

Bubble
Texas Tech, Kansas St.

Texas and Baylor are virtually safe at this moment, just as long as neither goes into a free-fall. The Longhorns have a 21 RPI, while Baylor is at 30, and both teams’ schedules will only send those numbers higher shy of losing out. Texas Tech is now a serious player following a week in which the Red Raiders beat Iowa State and then trounced Baylor in Waco. TTU can get into the Dance with an 8-10 league record and one conference tourney win. Kansas State is a different story altogether. The Wildcats have a lot of work left to do. It will take a sweep of TCU plus upset wins over Texas and Texas Tech just to get to 7-11 in league play, which would be a historic low conference record for any at-large team. We don’t see the boys from the Little Apple making it this year.

 

Big East
Site: New York (St. John’s is the host at Madison Square Garden)
All 10 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: Fox Sports 1 8 vs. 9 (7:00 PM) 7 vs. 10 (9:30 PM *)

Quarterfinal–March 10: Fox Sports 1 1 vs. 8/9 (12 PM), 4 vs. 5 (2:30 PM *), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6 (9:30 PM *)

Semifinal–March 11: Fox Sports 1 @ 6:30 PM & 9:00 PM *

Championship–March 12: FOX @ 5:30 PM

* All Games immediately following another game will begin 30 minutes after the conclusion of the preceding game. Times given are approximate.

Current Standings

Big East	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Villanova	12	1	22	3
Xavier	10	3	22	3
Creighton	8	5	17	9
Seton Hall	7	5	17	7
Providence	7	6	19	7
Georgetown	7	6	14	12
Butler	6	7	17	8
Marquette	5	8	16	10
DePaul	2	10	8	16
St. John’s	0	13	7	19

Safe
Villanova, Xavier

Close
Providence

Bubble
Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton

A 2-4 slide has begun to drop Providence out of Safe status and close to falling to Bubble status. The Friars next two games are on the road against Xavier and Seton Hall and two more losses sends them down to the Bubble. Seton Hall’s home loss to Butler damaged but did not destroy the Pirates’ chances, and did not rescue the Bulldogs. It just left both in limbo with more work to accomplish if they want a Dance ticket. Creighton is trying to be like a stretch-running horse, picking the right time to start a winning streak that has reached three games. A win at Butler tomorrow night would send the Blue Jays ahead of both Butler and Seton Hall in the Bubble department.

 

Big Ten
Site: Indianapolis
All 14 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: ESPN2 12 vs. 13 (4:30 PM), Big Ten Network 11 vs. 14 (7:00 PM)

Second Round–March 10: Big Ten Network 8 vs. 9 (12PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (2:30 PM), ESPN2 7 v. 10 (6:30PM), 6 vs. 11/14 (9PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: ESPN 1 vs. 8/9 (12PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (2:30PM), Big Ten Net. 2 vs. 7/10 (6:30PM), 3 vs. 6/11/14 (9PM)

Semifinal–March 12: CBS @ 1:00 PM & 3:30 PM

Championship–March 13: CBS @ 3:00 PM

Current Standings

Big Ten	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Iowa	11	2	20	5
Indiana	10	3	20	6
Maryland	10	3	22	4
Michigan	9	4	19	7
Wisconsin	8	4	16	9
Purdue	8	5	20	6
Ohio State	8	5	16	10
Michigan State	8	5	21	5
Nebraska	6	7	14	12
Northwestern	5	8	17	9
Penn State	3	9	12	13
Illinois	3	9	11	14
Rutgers	0	12	6	19
Minnesota	0	13	6	19

Safe
Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue

Close
Indiana, Michigan

Bubble
Wisconsin

If the NCAA Tournament began today, Wisconsin would be in the field. The Badgers are the hottest team in the league with seven consecutive wins, including a mighty impressive 13-point win at Maryland Saturday night, in which the Badgers were in control for almost the entire game, following an early 23-5 run.

 

Pac-12
Site: Las Vegas
All 12 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: Pac-12 Net. 8 vs. 9 (3PM), 5 vs. 12 (5:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (9PM), 6 vs. 11 (11:30 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 10: Pac-12 Net. 1 vs. 8/9 (3PM), 4 vs. 5/12 (5:30 PM, 2 vs. 7/10 (9PM), Fox Sports 1 3 vs. 6/11 (11:30 PM)

Semifinal–March 11: Pac-12 Network @ 9:00 PM, Fox Sports 1 @ 11:30 PM

Championship–March 12: Fox Sports 1 @ 10:00 PM

Current Standings

Pac-12	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Oregon	9	4	20	6
Arizona	9	4	21	5
Colorado	8	5	19	7
Utah	8	5	19	7
USC	7	5	18	7
California	7	5	17	8
Washington	7	6	15	10
Oregon State	6	7	15	9
Stanford	5	7	12	11
UCLA	5	7	14	11
Arizona State	4	9	14	12
Washington State	1	12	9	16

Safe
Oregon, Arizona, Utah, USC

Close
California, Colorado

Bubble
Oregon St., Washington, Stanford, UCLA

Cal’s three straight wins gives the Bears a leg up on the five other contenders in the Close or Bubble range. Cal’s last six games are pivotal, starting with a road trip to the Evergreen State to take on Washington and Washington State; followed by home games with USC and UCLA; and concluding with road games at Arizona and Arizona State. A 4-2 finish would give them enough wins to secure a bid. Colorado must win three out of their final five and then do something in the Pac-12 Tournament, and the Buffs have a tough road to climb to get there. As for the four teams on the Bubble, only Oregon State is playing like they belong in the conversation. It figures that one of these four will move into the field, but it is not a guarantee. Washington is the most likely of this quartet to get hot and go on a run in Las Vegas.

 

Southeastern
Site: Nashville (Vanderbilt is the host team)
Missouri is ineligible. The remaining 13 teams will participate.

Opening Round–March 9: SEC Network 12 vs. 13 (8:00 PM)

Second Round–March 10: SEC Net. 8 vs. 9 (1 PM), 5 vs. 12/13 (3:30 PM), 7 vs. 10 (7 PM), 6 vs. 11 (9:30 PM)

Quarterfinal–March 11: SEC Net. 1 vs. 8/9 (1 PM), 4 vs. 5/12/13 (3:30 PM), 2 vs. 7/10 (7 PM), 3 vs. 6/11 (9:30 PM)

Semifinal–March 12: ESPN 1:00 PM & 3:30 PM

Championship–March 13: ESPN 1:00 PM

Current Standings

Southeastern	CONFERENCE		OVERALL
Team	W	L	W	L
Kentucky	9	3	19	6
LSU	9	3	16	9
South Carolina	8	4	21	4
Texas A&M	7	5	18	7
Florida	7	5	16	9
Georgia	7	5	14	9
Vanderbilt	7	5	15	10
Ole Miss	6	6	16	9
Alabama	6	6	15	9
Arkansas	5	7	12	13
Tennessee	5	7	12	13
Mississippi State	3	9	10	14
Auburn	3	9	9	15
Missouri	2	10	9	16

Safe
Kentucky

Close
Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida

Bubble
LSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss

Texas A&M fell from the Safe to Close with their 0 for February streak. 3-3 is about the absolute worst the Aggies can finish, and they will be in with a 10-8 league mark with just one conference tournament win. South Carolina and Florida will eventually play themselves into the Safe range short of losing four in a row like A&M. LSU is tied for first in the league standings, and with Ben Simmons, it figures that the Selection Committee will give the Tigers major extra credit. Alabama is the team nobody wants to play at the present. The win at Florida Saturday night was ugly, but the Crimson Tide dominated the Gators in the second half and looked like an Alabama team from the Wimp Sanderson days. With their schedule, a 10-8 record probably gets ‘Bama in the party. Vanderbilt has yet to get a signature win away from home. They still have road games at Florida and Texas A&M, and it figures the Commodores will have to win at least one of those two and hold serve at home, or if they cannot win a key road game, Vandy will need to make it to the semifinals of the conference tournament to have a shot. Ole Miss has even less road success this year, and the Rebels have just one more chance to pick up a quality road win at Texas A&M, who they play tomorrow night. Short of winning in Aggieland, Ole Miss will probably have to make it all the way to the conference championship game to have any at-large shot.

 

This Week’s Bracketology Field of 68

Seed	Team
1	Kansas
1	Villanova
1	Oklahoma
1	Virginia
2	North Carolina
2	Iowa
2	Xavier
2	Maryland
3	Miami (Fla.)
3	West Virginia
3	Oregon
3	Michigan St.
4	Iowa St.
4	Kentucky
4	Dayton
4	Duke
5	Purdue
5	Arizona
5	Utah
5	Notre Dame
6	Texas
6	Texas A&M
6	USC
6	Indiana
7	South Carolina
7	Baylor
7	California
7	Providence
8	Colorado
8	Syracuse
8	Florida
8	Connecticut
9	St. Joseph’s
9	Pittsburgh
9	Michigan
9	Wisconsin
10	Oregon St.
10	Seton Hall
10	Florida St.
10	Wichita St.
11	Monmouth
11	Gonzaga
11	Valparaiso
11	San Diego St.
12	Cincinnati
12	Texas Tech
12	LSU
12	VCU
12	Temple
12	UALR
13	Chattanooga
13	Akron
13	Stony Brook
13	South Dakota St.
14	Hawaii
14	Yale
14	UNC-Wilmington
14	UAB
15	Tennessee St.
15	Stephen F. Austin
15	New Mexico St.
15	Montana
16	UNC-Asheville
16	Hampton
16	NJIT
16	Wagner
16	Bucknell
16	Texas Southern

 

Last 4 In

Texas Tech

LSU

VCU

Temple

First 4 Out

Alabama

Butler

Washington

St. Bonaventure

Next 4 Out

Vanderbilt

GWU

Tulsa

UCLA

1st Round #16’s

NJIT

Wagner

Bucknell

Texas Southern

 

 

NCAA National Championship Game By The Numbers

Duke (34-4)	vs.	Wisconsin (35-3)
CBS Television Tip Time: 9:18 PM EDT

Team Offense	Duke	Wisconsin
Field Goals	1075	989
Field Goal Attempts	2140	2054
3-Point Shots	279	281
3-Point Attempts	721	769
Free Throws	594	578
Free Throw Attempts	853	755
Offensive Rebounds	439	372
Defensive Rebounds	964	931
Turnovers	416	291
Steals	274	171
Possessions Per Game	66.4	59.8
Points Per Game	79.6	72.7
Team Defense	Duke	Wisconsin
Field Goals	937	872
Field Goal Attempts	2220	2041
3-Point Shots	192	198
3-Point Attempts	612	527
Free Throws	373	317
Free Throw Attempts	538	449
Offensive Rebounds	417	291
Defensive Rebounds	775	782
Turnovers	476	373
Steals	213	159
Possessions Per Game	66.7	59.9
Points Per Game	64.2	57.9
Four Factors	Duke	Wisconsin
Effective Field Goal %	56.8	55.0
Effective Field Goal %–Defense	46.5	47.6
Offensive Rebound Rate	36.2	32.2
Opponents Offensive Rebound Rate	30.2	23.8
Turnover Rate	16.5	12.5
Opponents Turnover Rate	18.8	16.0
Free Throw Rate* (FT/100 Poss.)	23.6	24.8
Opponents Free Throw Rate *	14.7	13.6
PiRate Criteria Factors	Duke	Wisconsin
Scoring Margin	15.4	14.8
Field Goal % Margin	8.0	5.4
Rebound Margin	5.6	5.4
Turnover Margin	1.6	2.1
R+T Rating # (see below for formula)	19.6	19.1
Won-Loss Away From Home	15-2	21-2
Schedule Strength (Per ESPN)	61.6	61.5
# R+T Rating components:	Duke	Wisconsin
Rebound Margin * 2	11.2	10.8
Average Steals * .5	3.6	2.2
6 – Opponents Average Steals	3.2	4.0
Turnover Margin	1.6	2.1
R+T Rating	19.6	19.1
PiRate Ratings
PiRate Red	Wisc by 1
PiRate White	Duke by 1
PiRate Blue	Duke by 2

100 Computer Simulations

Duke Wins: 52

Wisconsin Wins: 48

Note: 9 Overtime Games 2 of which went to double overtime, and one to triple overtime

Average Score: Duke 70.7  Wisconsin 69.4

Outlier A: Duke 74  Wisconsin 58

Outlier B: Wisconsin 70  Duke 60

This concludes the PiRate Ratings College Basketball Coverage for the season.  We will return in a couple weeks to offer our take on the Kentucky Derby with an emphasis on the two possible super horses this year–Dortmund and Materiality.

 

Final Four Preview–Semifinals

Team	Team	Tip Time	Network
Kentucky (38-0)	Wisconsin (35-3)	6:09 PM EDT	TBS
Duke (33-4)	Michigan St. (27-11)	8:49 PM EDT	TBS

Indianapolis will be rocking Saturday night as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four promises to be exciting with the potential for two close games.

The four teams share similar statistical competence where past National Champions have dominated, namely in rebounding.  As we told you a couple weeks ago, the one statistic that has 100% correlation with the National Champion is positive rebounding margin.  Since 1954, when complete rebounding statistics were archived, every National Champion has finished the season with positive rebounding margin.  This is not true for the other statistics, as we have crowned champions with negative field goal margin, negative turnover margin, and negative free throw margin.

This year is no different; the four combatants are all dominant rebounding teams, each outrebounding their opposition by more than five per game.

Looking back at the remaining Pirate Ratings Final Four Criteria, we have four teams that fit our mold like a glove.  All four have scoring margins greater than 8.0 per game, with three holding double-digit socring margins.  Two of the four hold 8% or greater field goal percentage margins, with one pushing that number into double digits.  Three of the four have better than 75% winning percentage away from their home floor, and all four have fat R+T ratings.

Final Four Offensive Statistics

Team	FG	FGA	3pt	3pta	FT	FTa	OR	DR	TO	Stl
Duke	1049	2090	277	711	567	816	432	935	408	265
Kentucky	980	2096	200	577	676	933	485	975	402	248
Michigan St.	992	2126	287	743	441	698	427	998	427	199
Wisconsin	966	2006	274	752	560	733	360	909	281	170

Final Four Defensive Statistics

Team	FG	FGA	3pt	3pta	FT	FTa	OR	DR	TO	Stl
Duke	915	2165	185	592	363	522	408	751	462	209
Kentucky	727	2068	168	629	425	650	451	730	523	181
Michigan St.	807	2054	222	702	565	783	371	840	409	208
Wisconsin	846	1987	195	522	308	439	285	766	367	154

Four Factors Statistics

Team	EFG	DEFG	OR%	DOR%	TO%	DTU%	FT*	DFT*
Duke	56.8	46.5	36.5	30.4	16.6	18.7	23.1	14.7
Kentucky	51.5	39.2	39.9	31.6	16.4	21.4	27.5	17.4
Michigan St.	53.4	44.7	33.7	27.1	17.4	16.6	17.9	22.9
Wisconsin	55.0	47.5	32.0	23.9	12.4	16.1	24.6	13.5

PiRate Ratings Criteria Statistics for Final Four

Team	PPG	D PPG	Mar.	FG-M	Rb-M	TO-M	R+T	WLRd	W-L	SOS	Poss.
Duke	79.5	64.3	15.2	7.9	5.6	1.5	16.6	14-2	33-4	61.8	66.3
Kentucky	74.6	53.9	20.8	11.6	7.3	3.2	22.4	18-0	38-0	58.7	64.6
Michigan St.	71.4	63.2	8.2	7.4	5.6	-0.5	13.9	13-6	27-11	67.0	64.7
Wisconsin	72.8	57.8	15.0	5.6	5.7	2.3	17.9	20-2	35-3	61.1	59.9

PiRate Ratings For Semifinal Round

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Kentucky	Wisconsin	3	3	6
Duke	Michigan St.	6	5	8

100 Computer Simulations For Semifinal Round

Kentucky vs. Wisconsin

Kentucky Wins: 94

Wisconsin Wins: 6

Average Score: Kentucky 71  Wisconsin 62

Outlier A: Kentucky 78  Wisconsin 62

Outlier B: Wisconsin 64  Kentucky 59

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke Wins: 84

Michigan St. Wins: 16

Average Score: Duke 77  Michigan St. 70

Outlier A: Duke 84  Michigan St. 62

Outlier B: Michigan St. 73  Duke 64