PiRate College Football Ratings: September 3, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday	September 6
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rice	Wake Forest	-21.7	-19.5	-22.2
Boise St.	Marshall	16.3	16.3	16.0
Saturday	September 7
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Pittsburgh	Ohio	13.7	14.6	11.6
Virginia Tech	Old Dominion	35.6	35.7	36.2
Akron	UAB	-1.6	-3.5	-2.3
Michigan	Army	21.5	19.6	22.1
Purdue	Vanderbilt	6.9	8.1	7.2
Iowa	Rutgers	25.8	23.0	25.7
Maryland	Syracuse	-4.9	-5.0	-6.2
Missouri	West Virginia	9.6	6.9	10.0
Ohio St.	Cincinnati	16.5	16.2	16.6
Kansas St.	Bowling Green	30.1	30.0	29.4
Utah	Northern Illinois	25.1	24.8	25.4
Georgia Tech	South Florida	12.7	10.1	13.5
Colorado	Nebraska	-2.7	-4.9	-2.3
Clemson	Texas A&M	18.2	15.5	20.4
Wisconsin	Central Michigan	39.1	37.5	38.7
Appalachian St.	Charlotte	21.3	18.5	19.9
Mississippi St.	Southern Miss.	23.8	21.5	23.0
Connecticut	Illinois	-23.6	-20.2	-24.6
Baylor	UTSA	35.1	32.2	34.9
Alabama	New Mexico St.	60.8	53.3	61.9
UCLA	San Diego St.	14.5	12.0	14.0
Florida St.	Louisiana-Monroe	19.1	19.2	19.3
Texas St.	Wyoming	-9.9	-11.4	-11.0
SMU	North Texas	8.0	7.9	7.5
Tennessee	BYU	8.5	8.2	6.7
Florida Atlantic	Central Florida	-15.9	-15.7	-16.3
Florida Int’l.	Western Kentucky	8.8	7.9	7.8
Kansas	Coastal Carolina	16.7	16.8	17.5
Louisiana	Liberty	8.7	7.3	7.3
Michigan St.	Western Michigan	17.8	18.8	17.7
Texas	LSU	-11.2	-8.4	-10.6
Auburn	Tulane	21.5	18.5	20.3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	5.4	3.4	5.0
Oregon	Nevada	21.7	20.0	23.0
Penn St.	Buffalo	33.1	31.1	32.0
Kentucky	Eastern Michigan	22.3	20.8	20.4
Texas Tech	UTEP	44.3	38.6	42.9
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	-7.1	-4.4	-6.8
USC	Stanford	-2.4	0.0	-2.1
Washington	California	9.3	8.4	9.2
Fresno St.	Minnesota	-8.4	-7.2	-6.5
Hawaii	Oregon St.	6.7	7.5	7.7

San Jose St.	Tulsa	-4.3	-2.4	-6.2
UNLV	Arkansas St.	-1.5	0.9	-1.0

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home	Visitor		PiRate
Virginia	William & Mary		35.8
Arizona St.	Sacramento St.		33.7
South Carolina	Charleston Sou.		38.6
Memphis	Southern U		36.4
Kent St.	Kennesaw St.		-1.8
North Carolina St.	Western Carolina		41.0
Ball St.	Fordham		25.9
Miami (O)	Tennessee Tech		35.1
Massachusetts	Southern Illinois		4.6
Indiana	Eastern Illinois		32.1
Boston College	Richmond		35.0
Louisiana Tech	Grambling		26.4
Georgia	Murray St.		52.3
Colorado St.	Western Illinois		6.4
Washington St.	Northern Colorado		41.9
East Carolina	Gardner-Webb		24.1
Georgia Southern	Maine		10.2
Duke	North Carolina A&T		26.9
Georgia St.	Furman		7.0
Louisville	Eastern Kentucky		19.9
Oklahoma St.	McNeese St.		36.8
South Alabama	Jackson St.		24.4
Oklahoma	South Dakota		38.3
Middle Tennessee	Tennessee St.		25.9
Florida	UT-Martin		42.6
Utah St.	Stony Brook		27.5
Houston	Prairie View		28.6
Arizona	Northern Arizona		23.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.8	131.5	136.7	134.6
2	Clemson	134.0	130.3	135.0	133.1
3	Georgia	125.9	123.9	126.3	125.4
4	L S U	126.1	123.3	125.0	124.8
5	Ohio St.	121.6	119.8	121.8	121.1
6	Michigan	121.3	119.3	121.8	120.8
7	Notre Dame	120.2	118.4	120.2	119.6
8	Oklahoma	119.9	118.9	119.6	119.5
9	Florida	120.0	117.1	119.0	118.7
10	Texas A&M	118.6	117.1	117.2	117.7
11	Penn St.	117.0	115.9	116.9	116.6
12	Utah	116.8	115.2	117.2	116.4
13	Auburn	117.2	114.8	116.5	116.2
14	Michigan St.	115.9	115.6	116.1	115.9
15	Mississippi St.	116.5	111.8	116.0	114.8
16	Wisconsin	114.4	113.9	114.1	114.1
17	Iowa	115.0	112.5	114.7	114.0
18	Oregon	113.1	113.1	114.2	113.5
19	Washington	113.3	112.5	114.4	113.4
20	Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0
21	Syracuse	112.0	111.8	112.3	112.0
22	Texas	111.9	111.8	111.5	111.7
23	Missouri	112.5	109.6	112.4	111.5
24	South Carolina	111.0	109.6	111.0	110.5
25	Minnesota	111.0	110.4	109.8	110.4
26	Baylor	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2
27	Iowa St.	110.0	110.4	109.9	110.1
28	Northwestern	110.7	109.7	109.7	110.0
29	Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.7	111.2	110.0
30	Oklahoma St.	109.8	110.4	109.3	109.8
31	Central Florida	109.3	108.3	110.4	109.3
32	Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1
33	Stanford	109.3	108.2	109.4	109.0
34	Virginia Tech	107.7	108.0	108.2	108.0
35	Purdue	108.2	108.1	107.6	108.0
36	Texas Tech	108.0	108.1	107.1	107.7
37	Indiana	108.6	106.8	107.4	107.6
38	Kentucky	108.4	107.2	107.2	107.6
39	Kansas St.	107.7	107.5	107.3	107.5
40	California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4
41	Arizona St.	107.3	106.3	107.7	107.1
42	Cincinnati	107.6	106.0	107.7	107.1
43	Tennessee	107.1	106.9	105.5	106.5
44	Boise St.	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.5
45	Nebraska	105.6	107.3	105.2	106.0
46	U C L A	106.0	105.6	105.3	105.7
47	West Virginia	105.9	105.7	105.4	105.6
48	Pittsburgh	105.9	105.6	105.2	105.6
49	Utah St.	105.4	104.2	106.8	105.4
50	Boston College	104.9	104.6	105.6	105.0
51	Florida St.	104.4	104.8	104.4	104.6
52	Appalachian St.	105.5	103.4	104.6	104.5
53	U S C	103.8	105.2	104.3	104.5
54	Memphis	104.0	103.5	105.1	104.2
55	Vanderbilt	104.3	103.0	103.4	103.6
56	North Carolina St.	103.2	103.2	104.0	103.5
57	Maryland	104.0	103.5	102.8	103.4
58	Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.7	103.4
59	Duke	103.5	102.9	103.2	103.2
60	North Carolina	102.0	103.2	103.4	102.9
61	Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7
62	T C U	101.1	104.9	101.5	102.5
63	Temple	102.4	101.2	103.7	102.4
64	BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.0	100.9	100.8	101.2
66	Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9
67	Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.3	100.0
68	Illinois	99.9	100.8	99.3	100.0
69	Western Michigan	100.1	98.7	100.4	99.7
70	Colorado	99.9	99.4	99.9	99.7
71	SMU	99.5	98.7	99.9	99.4
72	Georgia Tech	99.6	97.6	100.3	99.2
73	Arkansas	99.0	100.0	98.3	99.1
74	Tulane	98.7	99.3	99.1	99.0
75	Air Force	97.7	99.0	98.5	98.4
76	Hawaii	97.3	99.3	96.9	97.8
77	Wyoming	96.7	99.1	97.6	97.8
78	Houston	96.0	97.2	98.7	97.3
79	Ohio	96.3	95.0	97.8	96.4
80	Georgia Southern	95.9	95.1	95.1	95.4
81	Kansas	95.0	96.2	94.7	95.3
82	Nevada	94.4	96.1	94.2	94.9
83	Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9
84	Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8
85	San Diego St.	94.1	96.1	93.8	94.7
86	Oregon St.	94.6	95.8	93.2	94.5
87	Northern Illinois	94.7	93.4	94.8	94.3
88	Southern Miss.	94.7	92.3	95.0	94.0
89	Louisiana	93.8	93.9	92.9	93.5
90	Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2
91	North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1
92	Rutgers	92.2	92.5	92.0	92.2
93	Middle Tennessee	91.8	91.0	92.1	91.6
94	Tulsa	91.2	91.6	92.1	91.6
95	Toledo	91.2	91.4	92.3	91.6
96	Florida Atlantic	91.4	90.6	92.1	91.4
97	Florida Int’l.	91.2	91.0	91.7	91.3
98	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2
99	South Florida	90.4	91.5	90.5	90.8
100	Miami (Ohio)	90.8	89.1	91.3	90.4
101	Louisiana Tech	90.6	90.2	90.4	90.4
102	Eastern Michigan	89.1	89.4	89.8	89.5
103	Louisiana-Monroe	89.1	89.8	89.1	89.3
104	Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9
105	Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7
106	Navy	86.9	89.9	86.5	87.8
107	U N L V	86.8	89.3	86.9	87.7
108	Buffalo	87.0	87.8	88.0	87.6
109	Ball St.	87.1	86.7	86.8	86.9
110	Charlotte	86.3	86.9	86.7	86.6
111	Western Kentucky	85.4	86.2	86.9	86.1
112	Kent St.	85.6	85.8	86.0	85.8
113	U A B	84.7	86.6	85.2	85.5
114	East Carolina	84.5	86.6	84.2	85.1
115	San Jose St.	83.9	86.1	83.0	84.3
116	Texas St.	83.8	84.7	83.6	84.0
117	New Mexico	83.1	86.2	82.5	84.0
118	Coastal Carolina	81.3	82.4	80.2	81.3
119	Colorado St.	79.5	83.8	79.7	81.0
120	Bowling Green	80.5	80.5	80.9	80.7
121	Akron	80.6	80.7	80.5	80.6
122	Rice	79.2	80.8	78.7	79.6
123	New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0
124	Central Michigan	78.3	79.4	78.4	78.7
125	Texas-San Antonio	77.8	80.6	77.5	78.6
126	South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3
127	Old Dominion	75.0	75.3	75.0	75.1
128	Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6
129	Connecticut	73.3	77.6	71.8	74.2
130	U T E P	66.3	72.0	66.7	68.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	109.3	108.3	110.4	109.3	0-0	1-0
Cincinnati	107.6	106.0	107.7	107.1	0-0	1-0
Temple	102.4	101.2	103.7	102.4	0-0	1-0
South Florida	90.4	91.5	90.5	90.8	0-0	0-1
East Carolina	84.5	86.6	84.2	85.1	0-0	0-1
Connecticut	73.3	77.6	71.8	74.2	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.0	103.5	105.1	104.2	0-0	1-0
SMU	99.5	98.7	99.9	99.4	0-0	1-0
Tulane	98.7	99.3	99.1	99.0	0-0	1-0
Houston	96.0	97.2	98.7	97.3	0-0	0-1
Tulsa	91.2	91.6	92.1	91.6	0-0	0-1
Navy	86.9	89.9	86.5	87.8	0-0	1-0
AAC Averages	95.3	96.0	95.8	95.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.0	130.3	135.0	133.1	1-0	1-0
Syracuse	112.0	111.8	112.3	112.0	0-0	1-0
Boston College	104.9	104.6	105.6	105.0	1-0	1-0
Florida St.	104.4	104.8	104.4	104.6	0-0	0-1
North Carolina St.	103.2	103.2	104.0	103.5	0-0	1-0
Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.7	103.4	0-0	1-0
Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9	0-0	0-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.7	111.2	110.0	0-0	0-1
Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1	1-0	1-0
Virginia Tech	107.7	108.0	108.2	108.0	0-1	0-1
Pittsburgh	105.9	105.6	105.2	105.6	0-1	0-1
Duke	103.5	102.9	103.2	103.2	0-0	0-1
North Carolina	102.0	103.2	103.4	102.9	0-0	1-0
Georgia Tech	99.6	97.6	100.3	99.2	0-1	0-1
ACC Averages	106.8	106.3	107.1	106.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.9	118.9	119.6	119.5	0-0	1-0
Texas	111.9	111.8	111.5	111.7	0-0	1-0
Baylor	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2	0-0	1-0
Iowa St.	110.0	110.4	109.9	110.1	0-0	1-0
Oklahoma St.	109.8	110.4	109.3	109.8	0-0	1-0
Texas Tech	108.0	108.1	107.1	107.7	0-0	1-0
Kansas St.	107.7	107.5	107.3	107.5	0-0	1-0
West Virginia	105.9	105.7	105.4	105.6	0-0	1-0
T C U	101.1	104.9	101.5	102.5	0-0	1-0
Kansas	95.0	96.2	94.7	95.3	0-0	1-0
Big 12 Averages	108.0	108.4	107.6	108.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	121.6	119.8	121.8	121.1	0-0	1-0
Michigan	121.3	119.3	121.8	120.8	0-0	1-0
Penn St.	117.0	115.9	116.9	116.6	0-0	1-0
Michigan St.	115.9	115.6	116.1	115.9	0-0	1-0
Indiana	108.6	106.8	107.4	107.6	0-0	1-0
Maryland	104.0	103.5	102.8	103.4	0-0	1-0
Rutgers	92.2	92.5	92.0	92.2	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	114.4	113.9	114.1	114.1	0-0	1-0
Iowa	115.0	112.5	114.7	114.0	0-0	1-0
Minnesota	111.0	110.4	109.8	110.4	0-0	1-0
Northwestern	110.7	109.7	109.7	110.0	0-0	0-1
Purdue	108.2	108.1	107.6	108.0	0-0	0-1
Nebraska	105.6	107.3	105.2	106.0	0-0	1-0
Illinois	99.9	100.8	99.3	100.0	0-0	1-0
Big Ten Averages	110.4	109.7	109.9	110.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2	0-0	1-0
Middle Tennessee	91.8	91.0	92.1	91.6	0-0	0-1
Florida Atlantic	91.4	90.6	92.1	91.4	0-0	0-1
Florida Int’l.	91.2	91.0	91.7	91.3	0-0	0-1
Charlotte	86.3	86.9	86.7	86.6	0-0	1-0
Western Kentucky	85.4	86.2	86.9	86.1	0-0	0-1
Old Dominion	75.0	75.3	75.0	75.1	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.7	92.3	95.0	94.0	0-0	1-0
North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1	0-0	1-0
Louisiana Tech	90.6	90.2	90.4	90.4	0-0	0-1
U A B	84.7	86.6	85.2	85.5	0-0	1-0
Rice	79.2	80.8	78.7	79.6	0-0	0-1
Texas-San Antonio	77.8	80.6	77.5	78.6	0-0	1-0
U T E P	66.3	72.0	66.7	68.3	0-0	1-0
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	86.1	86.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.2	118.4	120.2	119.6	x	1-0
BYU	101.4	101.2	101.4	101.3	x	0-1
Army	100.2	100.2	99.8	100.1	x	1-0
Liberty	88.0	89.3	88.3	88.5	x	0-1
New Mexico St.	76.6	79.3	76.2	77.3	x	0-1
Massachusetts	73.4	76.2	72.8	74.1	x	0-1
Indep. Averages	93.3	94.1	93.1	93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.3	95.0	97.8	96.4	0-0	1-0
Miami (Ohio)	90.8	89.1	91.3	90.4	0-0	0-1
Buffalo	87.0	87.8	88.0	87.6	0-0	1-0
Kent St.	85.6	85.8	86.0	85.8	0-0	0-1
Bowling Green	80.5	80.5	80.9	80.7	0-0	1-0
Akron	80.6	80.7	80.5	80.6	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	100.1	98.7	100.4	99.7	0-0	1-0
Northern Illinois	94.7	93.4	94.8	94.3	0-0	1-0
Toledo	91.2	91.4	92.3	91.6	0-0	0-1
Eastern Michigan	89.1	89.4	89.8	89.5	0-0	1-0
Ball St.	87.1	86.7	86.8	86.9	0-0	0-1
Central Michigan	78.3	79.4	78.4	78.7	0-0	1-0
MAC Averages	88.4	88.2	88.9	88.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.5	0-0	1-0
Utah St.	105.4	104.2	106.8	105.4	0-0	0-1
Air Force	97.7	99.0	98.5	98.4	0-0	1-0
Wyoming	96.7	99.1	97.6	97.8	0-0	1-0
New Mexico	83.1	86.2	82.5	84.0	0-0	1-0
Colorado St.	79.5	83.8	79.7	81.0	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.3	100.0	0-0	0-1
Hawaii	97.3	99.3	96.9	97.8	0-0	1-0
Nevada	94.4	96.1	94.2	94.9	0-0	1-0
San Diego St.	94.1	96.1	93.8	94.7	0-0	1-0
U N L V	86.8	89.3	86.9	87.7	0-0	1-0
San Jose St.	83.9	86.1	83.0	84.3	0-0	1-0
MWC Averages	93.8	95.4	93.9	94.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	113.1	113.1	114.2	113.5	0-0	0-1
Washington	113.3	112.5	114.4	113.4	0-0	1-0
Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0	0-0	1-0
Stanford	109.3	108.2	109.4	109.0	0-0	1-0
California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4	0-0	1-0
Oregon St.	94.6	95.8	93.2	94.5	0-0	0-1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.8	115.2	117.2	116.4	0-0	1-0
Arizona St.	107.3	106.3	107.7	107.1	0-0	1-0
U C L A	106.0	105.6	105.3	105.7	0-0	0-1
U S C	103.8	105.2	104.3	104.5	0-0	1-0
Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9	0-0	0-1
Colorado	99.9	99.4	99.9	99.7	0-0	1-0
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.9	123.9	126.3	125.4	1-0	1-0
Florida	120.0	117.1	119.0	118.7	0-0	1-0
Missouri	112.5	109.6	112.4	111.5	0-0	0-1
South Carolina	111.0	109.6	111.0	110.5	0-0	0-1
Kentucky	108.4	107.2	107.2	107.6	0-0	1-0
Tennessee	107.1	106.9	105.5	106.5	0-0	0-1
Vanderbilt	104.3	103.0	103.4	103.6	0-1	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.8	131.5	136.7	134.6	0-0	1-0
L S U	126.1	123.3	125.0	124.8	0-0	1-0
Texas A&M	118.6	117.1	117.2	117.7	0-0	1-0
Auburn	117.2	114.8	116.5	116.2	0-0	1-0
Mississippi St.	116.5	111.8	116.0	114.8	0-0	1-0
Ole Miss	102.0	100.9	100.8	101.2	0-0	0-1
Arkansas	99.0	100.0	98.3	99.1	0-0	1-0
SEC Averages	114.6	112.6	113.9	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.5	103.4	104.6	104.5	0-0	1-0
Georgia Southern	95.9	95.1	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-1
Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8	0-0	1-0
Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9	0-0	1-0
Coastal Carolina	81.3	82.4	80.2	81.3	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	93.8	93.9	92.9	93.5	0-0	0-1
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2	0-0	0-1
Louisiana-Monroe	89.1	89.8	89.1	89.3	0-0	1-0
Texas St.	83.8	84.7	83.6	84.0	0-0	0-1
South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3	0-0	0-1
SBC Averages	90.1	90.7	89.4	90.0

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.7
2	BTen	110.0
3	B12	108.0
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	106.7
6	AAC	95.7
7	MWC	94.4
8	Ind	93.5
9	SUN	90.0
10	MAC	88.5
11	CUSA	86.1

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Utah St.
5	Appalachian St.

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Miami (O)]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Louisiana-Monroe
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	California
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Florida Int’l.	Georgia St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Purdue]	Southern Miss.
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	Hawaii	Houston
Independence	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Maryland
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Stanford
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Baylor
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Central Florida
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	Kansas St.
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Indiana]	Miami (Fla.)
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	Arkansas
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Vanderbilt
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	Utah St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Michigan St.
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Army]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Wisconsin
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Northwestern	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Appalachian St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Oklahoma
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Woe To Us

One week into the season, panic has set in at a number of schools after unexpected losses or even unimpressive wins have sent the fans of certain schools into full-scale panic.

Worst of the lot is the University of Tennessee.  The Volunteers, 25-point favorites, lost at home to Georgia State in a game that Vols were clearly manhandled by the team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Eastern Division in 2019.

Calls have come from within a lot of the fan base for massive changes to be made just 13 games into Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s head coaching career.  There are even calls to rid Athletics Director Phil Fulmer of his duties as well.

Today, in our little old folks reminiscing feature, I will tell you that contrary to the current popular belief, that this loss in Knoxville is not the worst loss in modern day history.

Let’s set the Time Machine back to 1958.  Coach Bowden Wyatt led an archaic Tennessee Single Wing offense that as recently as 1956 had allowed the Big Orange to run the table in the regular season and finish 2nd nationally to champion Oklahoma.

The following year, Tennessee won eight games including the Gator Bowl.  Two of their three losses came to top 5 teams.

In 1958, the Vols stumbled coming out of the gate.  In a 2-4 start that produced little offense and strong defense, Coach Wyatt all of a sudden found himself in hot water.  Tennessee fans, spoiled under the long reign of General Robert Neyland, reacted to this 2-4 start like former New York Yankees manager George Steinbrenner used to react when his team won only 90 games and missed out on the American League Division title.

Game seven was one of those automatic wins against tiny in-state rival Chattanooga.  The Mocs at times in the 20th Century were classified as Major College, or the equivalent of today’s FBS.  However, in 1958, they were Small College, or the equivalent of FCS.

Chattanooga entered this game coming off a loss at Tennessee Tech, and nobody gave Coach Scrappy Moore’s team any hope playing the mighty Vols at Shield-Watkins Field.  When the game started, Chattanooga’s defense, led by future American Football League starter Charlie Long at linebacker (he was also a starting offensive guard and played that position with the Boston Patriots), had little problem stopping Tennessee’s balanced-line Single Wing offense.  Time and time again, Tennessee ran line bucks, off-tackle plays, sweeps, and traps, and the Mocs defense stopped the attack and forced punts.

Chattanooga’s offense was not a juggernaut, but on this day, the Mocs would garner two touchdown drives and led 14-0 with precious little time remaining.  The stadium began to lose its home fans rapidly, as the then 46,000 seat stadium had about 30,000 people in seats.  This was a good thing because of what would happen in a few minutes.

Tennessee mounted one final desperation drive with the forward pass, something Wyatt-coached Vols teams used infrequently.  Chattanooga played a loose defense, allowing the Vols to use up the rest of the clock but finally scoring points in the last few seconds of the game.  The extra point was blocked, and Chattanooga pulled off its greatest ever upset, beating Tennessee in Knoxville 14-6.

The Chattanooga fans, totally excited over their impossible feat, stormed the field and tore down the goalposts.  What happens next has been told to me in the past by older acquaintances that lived in Chattanooga and have passed on to their reward.  Here’s a composite of these stories told to me many years ago:

The Tennessee fans that remained until the end of the game took offense at the Chattanooga fans storming their field and tearing down their goalposts.  When about 100 Vols’ fans decided to let the mob rule, they began to attack the Mocs fans, and within a few seconds, this became a full-scale riot.

In what has been described to me to have resembled the streets of Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the Knoxville police had to bring their riot gear and paddy wagons to the campus.  Eventually, tear gas was lobbed onto the field to stop the violence that had gotten well out of control.  Many Chattanooga fans and a handful of Tennessee fans had been detained and carted off to vehicles to be transferred to jail.

Here’s the most outrageous part of this story.  The sheriff of Hamilton County (Chattanooga as the county seat) was at this game as a fan.  He rounded up a “posse” of Mocs to attempt to overpower the Knoxville police and emancipate the arrested Chattanooga fans.  The sheriff was then arrested by the Knoxville police.

Tennessee had two home games remaining in 1958, and the administration decided they would not purchase new goalposts.  Instead, they erected very cheap wooden goalposts, the type anybody could construct by going to Home Depot, Lowe’s, or Menard’s today.

Coach Wyatt was barbecued in the local newspapers.  The Knoxville Journal and the Knoxville News-Sentinel opposed each other in 1958 like Fox News and CNN oppose each other today.  Yet, the two papers were in agreement that something needed to be done.  At 2-5, Tennessee now faced a closing three games against a top-5 Ole Miss team that had lost only to eventual national champion LSU; a decent Kentucky team under future Cleveland Browns head coach Blanton Collier; and a Vanderbilt team that would lose only one game prior to the season-ending contest with the Vols.

Staring a potential 2-8 season in the face, there was no joy in “The Marble City.”  Tennessee football was to Knoxville on Saturdays what it is to Green Bay on Sundays.

With the makeshift goalposts, Tennessee entered their game with Ole Miss as double-digit underdogs at home.  Having done exhaustive research, this was a first at Shields-Watkins Field.  Rarely had the Vols been underdogs at home under Neyland, so being a double-digit underdog to the Rebels was a new low.

As unexpected as their loss was to Chattanooga the previous week, the Vols went the opposite way against Coach Johnny Vaught’s Rebels.  Ole Miss had just scored 56 points the previous week against Houston, and their defense was giving up less than six points per game.  Even LSU could muster only 14 points, so the Vols’ Single Wing offense looked to be in a huge bind, and it was conceivable that Tennessee would be lucky to even cross midfield.

Not only did Tennessee move the ball across midfield, they moved it up and down the field for most of the day, while their defense slowed a great Split-T attack and Ole Miss’s top back, Charlie Flowers, had trouble moving the ball for most of the day.  An 18-16 upset was as big as the upset loss to Chattanooga.

Ironically, the Vols’ fans stormed the field after this game and quickly made short work of the cheap, makeshift goalposts.  Tennessee had to erect another set of wooden goalposts for its final home game.  Also ironically, goalposts would not be needed in that final home game, as neither Tennessee nor Kentucky attempted an extra point that day.  The Vol offense returned to its inept depths and failed to produce points.  A safety by the defense prevented the goose egg from staying on the old scoreboard.  Kentucky scored a lone touchdown and missed a two-point conversion but won 6-2.  This guaranteed a losing season for the Vols.

The season ended with Tennessee visiting their in-state rival Vanderbilt in Nashville.  This Vanderbilt team was ranked number 15 and looking at a likely Sun, Gator, or Bluegrass Bowl bid with a win over the lowly Vols.  Vanderbilt entered this game without an SEC loss and only one overall, which came against a Clemson team that won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship and would face LSU in the Sugar Bowl.

After Coach Neyland came to Knoxville, Vanderbilt was rarely favored to beat their nemesis down the road on US Highway 70.  On this late November day, the Commodores were expected to win easily and give some of their second team players extra experience.

Once again, the Vols came out fired up and stopped Vanderbilt’s version of the Split-T and Wing-T offense.  The UT Single Wing offense was not potent by any means, but they moved the ball.  In 1958, few teams made more than two or three field goals in an entire season, and many did not make even one.  On this day, a field goal gave the Vols a surprising early lead, and Tennessee led 10-6 in the fourth quarter.  Two long Vanderbilt drives ended with turnovers, a fumble on the first and an interception on the second.  The Vol player (cannot remember his name) that recovered the fumble also picked off the pass, and Tennessee shocked Vandy at Dudley Field.  As a result, the Commodores were passed over for the bowl bids.  The Sun Bowl took Hardin-Simmons; the Bluegrass Bowl in Louisville took Florida State; and the Gator Bowl chose Florida and Ole Miss.

To all the Vols fans, as well as those that cheer for Tennessee to lose, let this be a warning to you.  The same can be said to Florida State, South Carolina, Missouri, UCLA, and Arizona fans this week.  Your team failed miserably in game one, but you never know what might happen in game two.  This going to the extremes, believing your team might be Playoff bound if they win their first game, and believing that the sky is falling if they lose their first game, is a ridiculous emotion.  It’s just the first game.  Teams have stunk in their first game and proceeded to win the national championship.  Not that this will happen in 2019, but the Seminoles, Gamecocks, Tigers, Bruins, Wildcats, and Vols fans still have reason to believe that this current low point will be replaced with multiple reversals of misfortune.

Week Two–Some Marquee Games

This will be a Saturday to make plans to watch a lot of football if you are a big college fan.

Noon, EDT

Michigan vs. Army–Fox Sports

This is the best early game.  The Wolverines had some trouble against Middle Tennessee in week one, while Army struggled with Rice.  This game may be lower scoring than first expected, but both teams did not show their entire playbooks last week.  I expect more offense and will look at the totals numbers for this game.  If Army can pull off the upset, the Black Knights can easily run the table for the regular season and possibly earn a spot in the Cotton Bowl.  Army is not eligible for the guaranteed Group of 5 New Year’s Bowl bid, as this goes to the highest-rated Group of 5 Conference Champion.  However, if the men from West Point beat Michigan and proceed to go 13-0 in the regular season, they could still be selected as an at-large team for the Cotton Bowl.

Of course, Michigan is a tough team to beat at The Big House, and Army does not wear scarlet and gray uniforms.

Purdue vs. Vanderbilt–Big Ten Network

This looks like a bowl eliminator game, even in week 2.  Purdue watched a 17-point lead disappear in Reno against Nevada.  Vanderbilt suffered against national contender Georgia and has injuries on its already thin offensive line.  The team that emerges 1-1 will still hold bowl hopes for 2019.  The loser has little path to six wins.

3:30 PM EDT

Clemson vs. Texas A&M–ABC

The Aggies gave the Tigers one of their two toughest battles last year in College Station, and Coach Jimbo Fisher certainly knows how to prepare for a game against his former rival when he coached at Florida State.  Having to go to Deaf Valley to place Trevor the Great may be asking the Aggies to do the impossible, but Clemson didn’t look like a super team against Georgia Tech last week, and Lawrence actually completed two passes to the wrong colored jersey.  This game might be quite interesting if the Aggies can contain the CU running game and make Clemson one dimensional.

7:30 PM EDT

Texas vs. LSU–ABC

This may be the overall best game of the week.  Texas looked just as strong if not stronger beating Louisiana Tech in week one as they looked like last year when they beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.  LSU looked like a team that Alabama fans need to worry about, as the new Tiger offense did things through the air that it had not done before, even in the Bert Jones days.  Joe Burrow added his name to Heisman Trophy contention after week one.  The winner of this game stays in Playoff contention.  The loser is already looking at top tier bowl but no Playoffs.

8:00 PM EDT

North Carolina vs. Miami–ACC Network

Kudos to Coach Mack Brown for showing the nation that old guys can still teach new tricks to the youngsters.  North Carolina can now become a co-favorite for the Coastal Division flag with a win over Miami in week two.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had an extra week to lick their wounds after falling to rival Florida in a game that Miami had a chance to win at the end.

10:30 PM EDT

Washington vs. California–FS1

After Oregon lost in the final nine seconds to Auburn, the Pac-12 was placed behind the 8-ball.  It is going to take a 12-0 team from the Pac-12 to make the Playoffs, so this game will see one team emerge as having accomplished what is mandatory for that to happen.  Washington quarterback Jacob Eason looked like a potential first team All Pac-12 player in game one, but then Eastern Washington’s defense is not the standard to judge excellence.

Cal had to come from behind to beat FCS rival UC Davis.  Having to go to Seattle for this game makes the Bears a solid underdog, but Coach Justin Wilcox is impressing us with his handling of the boys from Berkeley.  Expect this game to be closer than expected and most likely quite exciting.  Cal stopped the Huskies last year in a 12-10 win.

Stanford vs. USC–ESPN

When USC quarterback J.T. Daniels went down with a season-ending injury in the middle of the Fresno State game, you could just see Coach Clay Helton’s subconscious brain imagining the help-wanted ads in the Los Angeles Times.  With an incredibly difficult schedule and a mandate to win 8 or 9 games this year, how does Helton survive the season much less get through it to the end with a true freshman signal caller?

Helton and the Trojans may have a shot against the Cardinal, because Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello might not play after suffering a gruesome hit in what should have been called a targeting penalty against Northwestern.  Costello might be in the concussion protocol and unable to play in this game, and backup Davis Mills did not produce any points after entering the game for the second half.

The winner of this game will be an unconvincing 2-0 team, but the loser will be in dire straits at 1-1.  USC faces four consecutive games where they will be the underdog, while Stanford decided to play Central Florida and Notre Dame as two of its three non-conference games.  The Cardinal may not have five more wins on their schedule if they lose this game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Friday, March 22, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Cincinnati	110.8	1.5	Iowa	111.1	1.2
Ole Miss	110.3	0.0	Oklahoma	110.7	-0.4
Texas Tech	117.8	0.0	Northern Kentucky	104.5	13.3
Kansas St.	112.7	0.0	UC-Irvine	106.2	6.5
Tennessee	118.3	0.0	Colgate	102.8	15.5
Gardner-Webb	99.5	1.0	Virginia	121.1	-20.6
Buffalo	115.0	0.0	Arizona St.	107.9	7.1
Wisconsin	115.1	0.0	Oregon	109.7	5.4
Utah St.	111.3	0.0	Washington	108.8	2.5
Duke	123.1	0.0	North Dakota St.	97.9	25.2
Houston	114.8	0.0	Georgia St.	103.9	10.9
Mississippi St.	113.9	0.0	Liberty	106.7	7.2
North Carolina	121.7	0.0	Iona	97.8	23.9
Virginia Commonwealth	110.7	0.0	Central Florida	109.4	1.3
Iowa St.	114.8	0.0	Ohio St.	109.9	4.9
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Saint Louis	104.1	11.4

 

Today’s Schedule

All Times EDT

TIME	MATCHUP	NETWORK	SITE
12:15 PM	(10) Iowa vs. (7) Cincinnati	CBS	Columbus
12:40 PM	(9) Oklahoma vs. (8) Ole Miss	truTV	Columbia
1:30 PM	(14) Northern Kentucky vs. (3) Texas Tech	TNT	Tulsa
2 PM	(13) UC Irvine vs. (4) Kansas State	TBS	San Jose
Approx. 3 PM	(15) Colgate vs. (2) Tennessee	CBS	Columbus
Approx. 3:25 PM	(16) Gardner-Webb vs. (1) Virginia	truTV	Columbia
Approx. 4:15 PM	(11) St. John’s / Arizona State vs. (6) Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
Approx. 4:45 PM	(12) Oregon vs. (5) Wisconsin	TBS	San Jose
6:50 PM	(9) Washington vs. (8) Utah State	TNT	Columbus
7:10 PM	(16) NC Central / North Dakota St. vs. (1) Duke	CBS	Columbia
7:20 PM	(14) Georgia State vs. (3) Houston	TBS	Tulsa
7:27 PM	(12) Liberty vs. (5) Mississippi State	truTV	San Jose
Approx. 9:35 PM	(16) Iona vs. (1) North Carolina	TNT	Columbus
Approx. 9:55 PM	(9) UCF vs. (8) VCU	CBS	Columbia
Approx. 10:05 PM	(11) Ohio State vs. (6) Iowa State	TBS	Tulsa
Approx. 10:12 PM	(13) Saint Louis vs. (4) Virginia Tech	truTV	San Jose

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 10, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Lipscomb	109.0	3.0	Liberty	105.9	6.1
Radford	102.7	2.5	Gardner-Webb	99.3	5.9
Hofstra	106.5	0.0	James Madison	93.8	12.7
William & Mary	97.6	0.0	Delaware	94.7	2.9
Northeastern	105.6	0.0	UNC Wilmington	94.7	10.9
Charleston	103.4	1.0	Drexel	95.2	9.2
Siena	95.4	2.5	Iona	97.7	0.2
Canisius	95.1	0.0	Monmouth	93.3	1.8
Northern Iowa	99.1	0.0	Bradley	99.5	-0.4
Colgate	102.1	2.5	Navy	92.8	11.8
Bucknell	101.4	2.5	Lehigh	100.3	3.6
Wofford	112.9	0.0	East Tennessee St.	106.6	6.3
UNC Greensboro	105.5	0.0	Furman	107.9	-2.4
North Dakota St.	97.5	0.0	Oral Roberts	92.8	4.7
South Dakota	97.4	1.0	Purdue Fort Wayne	98.7	-0.3
Cincinnati	111.8	3.0	Houston	114.5	0.3
Penn St.	109.9	2.5	Illinois	106.5	5.9
Indiana	110.4	3.0	Rutgers	106.3	7.1
East Carolina	93.7	2.5	Connecticut	105.2	-9.0
Nebraska	110.5	3.0	Iowa	110.8	2.7
South Florida	103.5	3.0	SMU	103.8	2.7
Ohio St.	110.3	3.0	Wisconsin	115.5	-2.2

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Md.-Baltimore Co.	62	Albany	54
Vermont	73	Maine	57
Binghamton	73	Stony Brook	71
Hartford	78	UMass Lowell	70

 

Semifinals–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Vermont (25-6)	7	Binghamton (10-22)
3	Maryland-Baltimore Co. (20-12)	4	Hartford (18-14)

 

 

Atlantic Sun Conference

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Lipscomb (25-6)	2	Liberty (27-6)

 

 

Big South Conference

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Radford) ***
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
2	Radford (22-10)	4	Gardner-Webb (22-11)

 

 

Colonial Athletic Association
Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC
First Round–Saturday, March 9
James Madison	74	Towson	73
UNC Wilmington	93	Elon	86

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Hofstra (25-6)	8	James Madison (14-18)
4	William & Mary (14-16)	5	Delaware (16-15)
2	Northeastern (20-10)	10	UNC Wilmington (10-22)
3	Charleston (23-8)	6	Drexel (13-18)

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Site: Times Union Center, Albany, NY (Siena)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Monmouth	98	Quinnipiac	92
Siena	87	Rider	81

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Iona (15-15)	5	Siena (17-15)
2	Canisius (15-16)	6	Monmouth (13-20)

 

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)
Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
Bradley	53	Loyola (Chi)	51
Northern Iowa	60	Drake	58

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
6	Northern Iowa (16-17)	5	Bradley (19-14)

 

Northeast Conference
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
St. Francis (PA)	72	Long Island	64
Fairleigh-Dickinson	66	Robert Morris	62

 

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	St. Francis (PA) (18-13)	2	Fairleigh-Dickinson (19-13)

 

 

Ohio Valley Conference
*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 9 ***
Murray St.	77	Belmont	65

Champion:  Murray St.  27-4

 

 

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Colgate (22-10)	5	Navy (12-18)
2	Bucknell (20-10)	3	Lehigh (20-10)

 

 

Southern Conference
Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Wofford	99	VMI	72
East Tennessee St.	68	Chattanooga	64
UNC Greensboro	77	Samford	70
Furman	85	Mercer	74

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Wofford (27-4)	4/5	East Tennessee St. (24-8)
2	UNC Greensboro (27-5)	3	Furman (25-6)

 

 

Summit League
Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Western Illinois	79	South Dakota St.	76
Omaha	81	North Dakota	76

 

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)	5	South Dakota (13-16)
3	North Dakota St. (15-15)	6	Oral Roberts (11-20)

 

 

West Coast Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
San Diego	80	BYU	57
Pepperdine	89	San Francisco	72

 

Semifinals–Monday, March 11
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	Saint Mary’s (20-11)	6	San Diego (21-13)
1	Gonzaga (29-2)	8	Pepperdine (16-17)

 

Teams In The Big Dance

Murray St.  (OVC)  27-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Thursday, March 7, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Radford	103.4	0.0	Presbyterian	98.3	5.1
Winthrop	99.7	0.0	Charleston Southern	99.5	0.2
Campbell	99.1	2.5	Hampton	98.6	3.0
Gardner-Webb	98.2	0.0	High Point	96.7	1.5
Lipscomb	110.1	3.0	NJIT	99.1	14.0
Liberty	106.5	3.0	North Florida	99.0	10.5
Marist	94.2	0.0	Saint Peter’s	91.1	3.1
Manhattan	90.5	0.0	Fairfield	92.5	-2.0
Monmouth	92.4	0.0	Niagara	90.7	1.7
Indiana St.	98.0	0.0	Valparaiso	96.2	1.8
Illinois St.	97.9	0.0	Evansville	96.5	1.4
Austin Peay	102.7	0.0	Morehead St.	95.0	7.7
Jacksonville St.	103.5	0.0	UT-Martin	92.1	11.4
Colgate	102.7	3.0	Boston U	96.1	9.6
Bucknell	101.1	3.0	Holy Cross	95.6	8.5
Lehigh	100.1	2.5	Army	95.3	7.3
American	98.5	2.5	Navy	92.8	8.2
San Diego	104.0	0.0	Portland	89.7	14.3
Pepperdine	99.9	0.0	Pacific	97.2	2.7
Appalachian St.	97.8	2.5	Troy	94.2	6.1
Little Rock	97.2	2.5	Louisiana	98.9	0.8
Central Florida	110.5	3.0	Cincinnati	110.8	2.7
Coastal Carolina	101.1	2.5	South Alabama	96.9	6.7
Connecticut	104.9	3.0	Temple	106.2	1.7
Florida A&M	90.3	2.5	Bethune-Cookman	92.4	0.4
Maryland Eastern Shore	81.0	2.5	Delaware St.	79.1	4.4
Morgan St.	89.0	2.5	Coppin St.	84.1	7.4
North Carolina A&T	91.8	2.5	North Carolina Central	92.4	1.9
South Carolina St.	87.5	2.5	Savannah St.	85.5	4.5
Wisconsin	114.7	3.0	Iowa	111.1	6.6
Arkansas St.	94.7	3.0	Louisiana Monroe	100.9	-3.2
Grambling	93.2	2.5	Alabama St.	90.6	5.1
Illinois	107.6	3.0	Indiana	109.2	1.4
Jackson St.	89.7	2.5	Alabama A&M	85.3	6.9
Norfolk St.	95.3	2.5	Howard	90.8	7.0
Prairie View	95.2	2.5	Southern	87.2	10.5
Southern Utah	92.9	2.5	Northern Colorado	99.5	-4.1
UT Rio Grande Valley	99.5	2.5	California Baptist	97.9	4.1
Texas Southern	98.0	2.5	Alcorn St.	84.6	15.9
Colorado	106.3	3.0	UCLA	105.1	4.2
Houston	114.2	2.5	SMU	102.6	14.1
Idaho St.	90.7	2.5	Eastern Washington	93.6	-0.4
Utah Valley	104.8	2.5	Grand Canyon	105.4	1.9
Weber St.	97.6	2.5	Idaho	84.2	15.9
Cal Poly	89.2	2.5	UC-Irvine	105.1	-13.4
Cal St. Northridge	94.2	2.5	UC Santa Barbara	99.9	-3.2
UC-Davis	95.8	3.5	Hawaii	97.1	2.2
Portland St.	92.3	2.5	Montana	102.6	-7.8
Sacramento St.	93.5	2.5	Montana St.	95.4	0.6
Seattle	98.8	2.5	Cal St. Bakersfield	97.4	3.9
Utah	103.4	3.0	USC	105.4	1.0
Stanford	104.5	1.5	California	94.5	11.5

 

Conference Tournaments Update

Atlantic Sun Conference

Both Games Played at Higher Seed

Semifinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Lipscomb (24-6)	5	NJIT (21-11)
2	Liberty (26-6)	3	North Florida (16-16)

 

Big South Conference

At Campbell University, Buies Creek, NC

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	Radford (20-10)	7	Presbyterian (18-14)
3	Winthrop (18-11)	6	Charleston Southern (16-14)
1	Campbell (19-11)	8	Hampton (15-15)
4	Gardner-Webb (20-11)	5	High Point (16-14)

Horizon League  (Motor City Madness)

Wednesday’s Games Played At Higher Seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6

Oakland	88	Youngstown St.	84
Northern Kentucky	99	Detroit	88

Site: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Wright St. (20-12)	4	Green Bay 17-15
2	Northern Kentucky (24-8)	3/6	Oakland (16-16)

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Site: Times Union Center, Albany, NY (Siena)

First Round–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Marist (12-18)	9	Saint Peter’s (9-21)
7	Manhattan (10-20)	10	Fairfield (9-21)
6	Monmouth (11-20)	11	Niagara (13-18)

 

Missouri Valley Conference  (Arch Madness)

Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

First Round–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Indiana St. (15-15)	9	Valparaiso (14-17)
7	Illinois St. (16-15)	10	Evansville (11-20)

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6

St. Francis (PA)	67	Bryant	63
Fairleigh-Dickinson	84	Wagner	46
Long Island	71	Sacred Heart	62
Robert Morris	69	St. Francis (Bklyn)	65 ot

 

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	St. Francis (PA) (17-13)	6	Long Island (16-15)
2	Fairleigh-Dickinson (18-13)	4	Robert Morris (17-15)

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

Morehead St.	72	SIU Edwardsville	68
UT-Martin	78	Eastern Illinois	71

 

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	Austin Peay (21-10)	5	Morehead St. (13-19)
3	Jacksonville St. (23-8)	7	UT-Martin (12-18)

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Colgate (21-10)	8	Boston U (15-17)
2	Bucknell (19-10)	10	Holy Cross (16-16)
3	Lehigh (19-10)	6	Army (13-18)
4	American (15-14)	5	Navy (11-18)

 

West Coast Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
7	San Diego (18-13)	10	Portland (7-24)
8	Pepperdine (13-17)	9	Pacific (14-17)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Monday, February 4, 2019

Monday’s PiRate Ratings (1-353)

Rk	Team	PiRate	Conf
1	Duke	124.0	ACC
2	Gonzaga	122.5	WCC
3	Virginia	122.1	ACC
4	Michigan St.	120.1	B10
5	North Carolina	119.6	ACC
6	Tennessee	119.3	SEC
7	Virginia Tech	117.6	ACC
8	Kentucky	117.4	SEC
9	Michigan	117.0	B10
10	Purdue	116.4	B10
11	Auburn	116.0	SEC
12	Iowa St.	115.7	B12
13	Wisconsin	115.6	B10
14	Kansas	115.3	B12
15	Nevada	115.1	MWC
16	Louisville	114.3	ACC
17	Texas Tech	114.2	B12
18	Villanova	113.9	BE
19	Buffalo	113.2	MAC
20	Houston	112.9	Amer
21	Marquette	112.6	BE
22	Maryland	112.6	B10
23	Nebraska	112.5	B10
24	Florida St.	112.5	ACC
25	Iowa	112.5	B10
26	Mississippi St.	112.4	SEC
27	LSU	112.2	SEC
28	North Carolina St.	112.2	ACC
29	Cincinnati	112.0	Amer
30	Baylor	111.8	B12
31	Ohio St.	111.6	B10
32	Syracuse	111.5	ACC
33	Florida	111.3	SEC
34	Texas	111.3	B12
35	Oklahoma	111.2	B12
36	Wofford	111.1	SC
37	TCU	110.7	B12
38	Kansas St.	110.6	B12
39	Washington	110.5	P12
40	Indiana	110.5	B10
41	Saint Mary’s	110.4	WCC
42	Clemson	110.3	ACC
43	Lipscomb	110.2	ASun
44	Utah St.	109.6	MWC
45	St. John’s	109.6	BE
46	Creighton	109.5	BE
47	San Francisco	109.5	WCC
48	Mississippi	109.4	SEC
49	Alabama	109.0	SEC
50	Arizona St.	109.0	P12
51	Butler	108.8	BE
52	Central Florida	108.5	Amer
53	Oregon	108.4	P12
54	Virginia Commonwealth	108.2	A10
55	Arkansas	108.1	SEC
56	Northwestern	107.9	B10
57	Minnesota	107.7	B10
58	New Mexico St.	107.5	WAC
59	Arizona	107.5	P12
60	Seton Hall	107.4	BE
61	Toledo	107.4	MAC
62	Murray St.	107.3	OVC
63	Fresno St.	107.3	MWC
64	East Tennessee St.	107.1	SC
65	Vermont	107.0	AE
66	Hofstra	106.9	CAA
67	Liberty	106.9	ASun
68	Belmont	106.8	OVC
69	Oregon St.	106.7	P12
70	Dayton	106.6	A10
71	Temple	106.6	Amer
72	Penn St.	106.6	B10
73	Connecticut	106.5	Amer
74	South Dakota St.	106.2	Sum
75	Miami (Fla)	106.2	ACC
76	Pittsburgh	106.2	ACC
77	Grand Canyon	106.1	WAC
78	Georgetown	106.1	BE
79	Providence	106.0	BE
80	Davidson	106.0	A10
81	West Virginia	105.9	B12
82	Notre Dame	105.8	ACC
83	Illinois	105.8	B10
84	Yale	105.7	Ivy
85	Georgia Tech	105.7	ACC
86	Memphis	105.6	Amer
87	Furman	105.6	SC
88	Colorado	105.3	P12
89	San Diego	105.3	WCC
90	South Carolina	105.2	SEC
91	BYU	105.2	WCC
92	Northeastern	105.2	CAA
93	Xavier	105.1	BE
94	Missouri	104.9	SEC
95	SMU	104.8	Amer
96	Northern Kentucky	104.7	Horz
97	UCLA	104.7	P12
98	Rutgers	104.6	B10
99	Oklahoma St.	104.5	B12
100	Georgia	104.5	SEC
101	Harvard	104.3	Ivy
102	DePaul	104.2	BE
103	Ball St.	104.2	MAC
104	Texas St.	104.1	SB
105	Old Dominion	104.0	CUSA
106	Rhode Island	103.9	A10
107	USC	103.9	P12
108	Montana	103.8	BSky
109	Loyola (Chi)	103.7	MVC
110	Boston College	103.7	ACC
111	Georgia St.	103.6	SB
112	Western Kentucky	103.6	CUSA
113	Texas A&M	103.5	SEC
114	South Florida	103.5	Amer
115	Penn	103.5	Ivy
116	Austin Peay	103.5	OVC
117	San Diego St.	103.4	MWC
118	Georgia Southern	103.4	SB
119	Jacksonville St.	103.3	OVC
120	Akron	103.3	MAC
121	Charleston	103.2	CAA
122	Bowling Green	103.2	MAC
123	George Mason	103.2	A10
124	Saint Louis	103.1	A10
125	Vanderbilt	103.1	SEC
126	Utah	103.0	P12
127	Utah Valley	103.0	WAC
128	Drake	102.9	MVC
129	Stanford	102.8	P12
130	Wichita St.	102.7	Amer
131	Boise St.	102.7	MWC
132	North Texas	102.7	CUSA
133	Radford	102.6	BSth
134	Tulsa	102.5	Amer
135	Northern Illinois	102.1	MAC
136	Bucknell	101.8	Pat
137	Southern Miss	101.8	CUSA
138	Brown	101.8	Ivy
139	Louisiana Tech	101.8	CUSA
140	Loyola Marymount	101.7	WCC
141	Coastal Carolina	101.5	SB
142	Central Michigan	101.5	MAC
143	Lehigh	101.4	Pat
144	St. Bonaventure	101.2	A10
145	Miami (O)	101.1	MAC
146	Kent St.	101.1	MAC
147	UC Irvine	101.0	BW
148	Wright St.	100.9	Horz
149	Princeton	100.8	Ivy
150	Southern Illinois	100.7	MVC
151	Louisiana Monroe	100.6	SB
152	Samford	100.6	SC
153	Colgate	100.2	Pat
154	Duquesne	100.2	A10
155	Missouri St.	100.1	MVC
156	Northern Colorado	100.1	BSky
157	Rider	100.1	MAAC
158	Pepperdine	100.1	WCC
159	Illinois St.	100.0	MVC
160	Stony Brook	100.0	AE
161	Cal St. Fullerton	100.0	BW
162	Winthrop	99.9	BSth
163	Weber St.	99.8	BSky
164	UMass Lowell	99.7	AE
165	Wake Forest	99.6	ACC
166	Mercer	99.6	SC
167	Abilene Christian	99.6	Slnd
168	Omaha	99.6	Sum
169	UC Santa Barbara	99.5	BW
170	NJIT	99.5	ASun
171	UAB	99.5	CUSA
172	Eastern Michigan	99.4	MAC
173	New Mexico	99.4	MWC
174	Marshall	99.4	CUSA
175	UTSA	99.1	CUSA
176	American	99.1	Pat
177	Purdue Fort Wayne	99.0	Sum
178	Louisiana	98.9	SB
179	Massachusetts	98.9	A10
180	Sam Houston St.	98.9	Slnd
181	UNC Greensboro	98.9	SC
182	Saint Joseph’s	98.8	A10
183	Gardner Webb	98.8	BSth
184	UNLV	98.6	MWC
185	IUPUI	98.6	Horz
186	Colorado St.	98.5	MWC
187	Seattle	98.4	WAC
188	Dartmouth	98.3	Ivy
189	Campbell	98.2	BSth
190	Valparaiso	98.2	MVC
191	Evansville	98.2	MVC
192	Presbyterian	98.1	BSth
193	Richmond	98.1	A10
194	Hartford	98.0	AE
195	UNC Wilmington	98.0	CAA
196	Appalachian St.	98.0	SB
197	Hawaii	98.0	BW
198	Northern Iowa	98.0	MVC
199	Cal St. Bakersfield	97.8	WAC
200	Florida Atlantic	97.8	CUSA
201	Ohio	97.8	MAC
202	Texas Southern	97.7	SWAC
203	Troy	97.7	SB
204	North Dakota St.	97.6	Sum
205	Maryland Baltimore Co.	97.6	AE
206	Green Bay	97.5	Horz
207	Pacific	97.5	WCC
208	Oakland	97.5	Horz
209	Indiana St.	97.4	MVC
210	Bradley	97.2	MVC
211	Charleston Southern	97.1	BSth
212	Illinois Chicago	97.0	Horz
213	Holy Cross	97.0	Pat
214	North Florida	96.9	ASun
215	South Alabama	96.8	SB
216	Boston University	96.8	Pat
217	High Point	96.7	BSth
218	La Salle	96.7	A10
219	Long Beach St.	96.7	BW
220	Hampton	96.6	BSth
221	William & Mary	96.6	CAA
222	Lamar	96.5	Slnd
223	Florida Int’l.	96.4	CUSA
224	Iona	96.4	MAAC
225	South Dakota	96.4	Sum
226	UC Riverside	96.3	BW
227	Quinnipiac	96.3	MAAC
228	Washington St.	96.3	P12
229	Santa Clara	96.2	WCC
230	Little Rock	96.2	SB
231	Fairleigh Dickinson	96.1	NEC
232	Robert Morris	96.1	NEC
233	Army	96.0	Pat
234	Sacred Heart	95.8	NEC
235	Eastern Kentucky	95.8	OVC
236	California Baptist	95.8	WAC
237	Detroit	95.7	Horz
238	Fordham	95.7	A10
239	Canisius	95.6	MAAC
240	Florida Gulf Coast	95.6	ASun
241	USC Upstate	95.6	BSth
242	Drexel	95.5	CAA
243	Columbia	95.5	Ivy
244	George Washington	95.5	A10
245	St. Francis PA	95.4	NEC
246	UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3	WAC
247	Delaware	95.3	CAA
248	Cornell	95.3	Ivy
249	Sacramento St.	95.1	BSky
250	UC Davis	95.1	BW
251	The Citadel	94.9	SC
252	St. Francis (BKN)	94.9	NEC
253	Siena	94.9	MAAC
254	Norfolk St.	94.9	MEAC
255	Western Michigan	94.9	MAC
256	UT Arlington	94.7	SB
257	Morehead St.	94.7	OVC
258	Rice	94.7	CUSA
259	Prairie View A&M	94.7	SWAC
260	Missouri Kansas City	94.7	WAC
261	Jacksonville	94.6	ASun
262	Towson	94.6	CAA
263	Air Force	94.6	MWC
264	UTEP	94.5	CUSA
265	Marist	94.5	MAAC
266	Long Island	94.4	NEC
267	Arkansas St.	94.4	SB
268	Portland St.	94.3	BSky
269	Montana St.	94.3	BSky
270	Chattanooga	94.2	SC
271	James Madison	94.2	CAA
272	Stephen F. Austin	94.2	Slnd
273	Albany	94.1	AE
274	North Dakota	94.1	Sum
275	Fairfield	94.0	MAAC
276	East Carolina	94.0	Amer
277	UT Martin	94.0	OVC
278	Wagner	94.0	NEC
279	Western Illinois	93.9	Sum
280	Texas A&M CC	93.8	Slnd
281	California	93.7	P12
282	Milwaukee	93.7	Horz
283	New Orleans	93.5	Slnd
284	Loyola (MD)	93.4	Pat
285	Tulane	93.4	Amer
286	Middle Tennessee	93.4	CUSA
287	Cal St. Northridge	93.3	BW
288	Niagara	93.3	MAAC
289	Southern Utah	93.2	BSky
290	Grambling	93.2	SWAC
291	Monmouth	93.2	MAAC
292	Youngstown St.	93.1	Horz
293	North Carolina Central	93.1	MEAC
294	Houston Baptist	93.0	Slnd
295	Tennessee St.	92.9	OVC
296	Eastern Washington	92.9	BSky
297	Central Arkansas	92.8	Slnd
298	Eastern Illinois	92.8	OVC
299	Western Carolina	92.7	SC
300	Southeastern Louisiana	92.7	Slnd
301	Denver	92.3	Sum
302	Cleveland St.	92.2	Horz
303	Longwood	92.2	BSth
304	North Carolina A&T	92.1	MEAC
305	Navy	92.0	Pat
306	Bethune Cookman	92.0	MEAC
307	Idaho St.	92.0	BSky
308	Oral Roberts	92.0	Sum
309	Lafayette	91.9	Pat
310	Charlotte	91.9	CUSA
311	Northern Arizona	91.9	BSky
312	Central Connecticut	91.8	NEC
313	Saint Peter’s	91.8	MAAC
314	McNeese St.	91.4	Slnd
315	Southeast Missouri St.	91.1	OVC
316	Alabama St.	91.1	SWAC
317	Maine	91.0	AE
318	Howard	91.0	MEAC
319	VMI	90.8	SC
320	Nicholls St.	90.8	Slnd
321	Elon	90.7	CAA
322	Portland	90.4	WCC
323	Florida A&M	90.3	MEAC
324	North Alabama	90.2	ASun
325	Wyoming	90.2	MWC
326	Manhattan	90.1	MAAC
327	Jackson St.	90.0	SWAC
328	Tennessee Tech	90.0	OVC
329	Cal Poly	89.7	BW
330	SIU Edwardsville	89.4	OVC
331	Mount St. Mary’s	89.0	NEC
332	Bryant	88.9	NEC
333	Binghamton	88.8	AE
334	Arkansas Pine Bluff	88.7	SWAC
335	Morgan St.	88.7	MEAC
336	South Carolina St.	88.5	MEAC
337	UNC Asheville	88.2	BSth
338	Southern	87.9	SWAC
339	Idaho	87.2	BSky
340	San Jose St.	86.9	MWC
341	Northwestern St.	86.7	Slnd
342	Stetson	86.5	ASun
343	Incarnate Word	85.8	Slnd
344	Kennesaw St.	85.7	ASun
345	New Hampshire	85.7	AE
346	Coppin St.	85.3	MEAC
347	Alcorn St.	84.8	SWAC
348	Alabama A&M	84.7	SWAC
349	Savannah St.	84.2	MEAC
350	Mississippi Valley St.	83.3	SWAC
351	Maryland Eastern Shore	81.3	MEAC
352	Chicago St.	80.9	WAC
353	Delaware St.	80.7	MEAC

 

Ratings Alphabetically

Rk	Team	PiRate	Conf
167	Abilene Christian	99.6	Slnd
263	Air Force	94.6	MWC
120	Akron	103.3	MAC
49	Alabama	109.0	SEC
348	Alabama A&M	84.7	SWAC
316	Alabama St.	91.1	SWAC
273	Albany	94.1	AE
347	Alcorn St.	84.8	SWAC
176	American	99.1	Pat
196	Appalachian St.	98.0	SB
59	Arizona	107.5	P12
50	Arizona St.	109.0	P12
55	Arkansas	108.1	SEC
334	Arkansas Pine Bluff	88.7	SWAC
267	Arkansas St.	94.4	SB
233	Army	96.0	Pat
11	Auburn	116.0	SEC
116	Austin Peay	103.5	OVC
103	Ball St.	104.2	MAC
30	Baylor	111.8	B12
68	Belmont	106.8	OVC
306	Bethune Cookman	92.0	MEAC
333	Binghamton	88.8	AE
131	Boise St.	102.7	MWC
110	Boston College	103.7	ACC
216	Boston University	96.8	Pat
122	Bowling Green	103.2	MAC
210	Bradley	97.2	MVC
138	Brown	101.8	Ivy
332	Bryant	88.9	NEC
136	Bucknell	101.8	Pat
19	Buffalo	113.2	MAC
51	Butler	108.8	BE
91	BYU	105.2	WCC
329	Cal Poly	89.7	BW
199	Cal St. Bakersfield	97.8	WAC
161	Cal St. Fullerton	100.0	BW
287	Cal St. Northridge	93.3	BW
281	California	93.7	P12
236	California Baptist	95.8	WAC
189	Campbell	98.2	BSth
239	Canisius	95.6	MAAC
297	Central Arkansas	92.8	Slnd
312	Central Connecticut	91.8	NEC
52	Central Florida	108.5	Amer
142	Central Michigan	101.5	MAC
121	Charleston	103.2	CAA
211	Charleston Southern	97.1	BSth
310	Charlotte	91.9	CUSA
270	Chattanooga	94.2	SC
352	Chicago St.	80.9	WAC
29	Cincinnati	112.0	Amer
42	Clemson	110.3	ACC
302	Cleveland St.	92.2	Horz
141	Coastal Carolina	101.5	SB
153	Colgate	100.2	Pat
88	Colorado	105.3	P12
186	Colorado St.	98.5	MWC
243	Columbia	95.5	Ivy
73	Connecticut	106.5	Amer
346	Coppin St.	85.3	MEAC
248	Cornell	95.3	Ivy
46	Creighton	109.5	BE
188	Dartmouth	98.3	Ivy
80	Davidson	106.0	A10
70	Dayton	106.6	A10
247	Delaware	95.3	CAA
353	Delaware St.	80.7	MEAC
301	Denver	92.3	Sum
102	DePaul	104.2	BE
237	Detroit	95.7	Horz
128	Drake	102.9	MVC
242	Drexel	95.5	CAA
1	Duke	124.0	ACC
154	Duquesne	100.2	A10
276	East Carolina	94.0	Amer
64	East Tennessee St.	107.1	SC
298	Eastern Illinois	92.8	OVC
235	Eastern Kentucky	95.8	OVC
172	Eastern Michigan	99.4	MAC
296	Eastern Washington	92.9	BSky
321	Elon	90.7	CAA
191	Evansville	98.2	MVC
275	Fairfield	94.0	MAAC
231	Fairleigh Dickinson	96.1	NEC
33	Florida	111.3	SEC
323	Florida A&M	90.3	MEAC
200	Florida Atlantic	97.8	CUSA
240	Florida Gulf Coast	95.6	ASun
223	Florida Int’l.	96.4	CUSA
24	Florida St.	112.5	ACC
238	Fordham	95.7	A10
63	Fresno St.	107.3	MWC
87	Furman	105.6	SC
183	Gardner Webb	98.8	BSth
123	George Mason	103.2	A10
244	George Washington	95.5	A10
78	Georgetown	106.1	BE
100	Georgia	104.5	SEC
118	Georgia Southern	103.4	SB
111	Georgia St.	103.6	SB
85	Georgia Tech	105.7	ACC
2	Gonzaga	122.5	WCC
290	Grambling	93.2	SWAC
77	Grand Canyon	106.1	WAC
206	Green Bay	97.5	Horz
220	Hampton	96.6	BSth
194	Hartford	98.0	AE
101	Harvard	104.3	Ivy
197	Hawaii	98.0	BW
217	High Point	96.7	BSth
66	Hofstra	106.9	CAA
213	Holy Cross	97.0	Pat
20	Houston	112.9	Amer
294	Houston Baptist	93.0	Slnd
318	Howard	91.0	MEAC
339	Idaho	87.2	BSky
307	Idaho St.	92.0	BSky
83	Illinois	105.8	B10
212	Illinois Chicago	97.0	Horz
159	Illinois St.	100.0	MVC
343	Incarnate Word	85.8	Slnd
40	Indiana	110.5	B10
209	Indiana St.	97.4	MVC
224	Iona	96.4	MAAC
25	Iowa	112.5	B10
12	Iowa St.	115.7	B12
185	IUPUI	98.6	Horz
327	Jackson St.	90.0	SWAC
261	Jacksonville	94.6	ASun
119	Jacksonville St.	103.3	OVC
271	James Madison	94.2	CAA
14	Kansas	115.3	B12
38	Kansas St.	110.6	B12
344	Kennesaw St.	85.7	ASun
146	Kent St.	101.1	MAC
8	Kentucky	117.4	SEC
218	La Salle	96.7	A10
309	Lafayette	91.9	Pat
222	Lamar	96.5	Slnd
143	Lehigh	101.4	Pat
67	Liberty	106.9	ASun
43	Lipscomb	110.2	ASun
230	Little Rock	96.2	SB
219	Long Beach St.	96.7	BW
266	Long Island	94.4	NEC
303	Longwood	92.2	BSth
178	Louisiana	98.9	SB
151	Louisiana Monroe	100.6	SB
139	Louisiana Tech	101.8	CUSA
16	Louisville	114.3	ACC
109	Loyola (Chi)	103.7	MVC
284	Loyola (MD)	93.4	Pat
140	Loyola Marymount	101.7	WCC
27	LSU	112.2	SEC
317	Maine	91.0	AE
326	Manhattan	90.1	MAAC
265	Marist	94.5	MAAC
21	Marquette	112.6	BE
174	Marshall	99.4	CUSA
22	Maryland	112.6	B10
205	Maryland Baltimore Co.	97.6	AE
351	Maryland Eastern Shore	81.3	MEAC
179	Massachusetts	98.9	A10
314	McNeese St.	91.4	Slnd
86	Memphis	105.6	Amer
166	Mercer	99.6	SC
75	Miami (Fla)	106.2	ACC
145	Miami (O)	101.1	MAC
9	Michigan	117.0	B10
4	Michigan St.	120.1	B10
286	Middle Tennessee	93.4	CUSA
282	Milwaukee	93.7	Horz
57	Minnesota	107.7	B10
48	Mississippi	109.4	SEC
26	Mississippi St.	112.4	SEC
350	Mississippi Valley St.	83.3	SWAC
94	Missouri	104.9	SEC
260	Missouri Kansas City	94.7	WAC
155	Missouri St.	100.1	MVC
291	Monmouth	93.2	MAAC
108	Montana	103.8	BSky
269	Montana St.	94.3	BSky
257	Morehead St.	94.7	OVC
335	Morgan St.	88.7	MEAC
331	Mount St. Mary’s	89.0	NEC
62	Murray St.	107.3	OVC
305	Navy	92.0	Pat
23	Nebraska	112.5	B10
15	Nevada	115.1	MWC
345	New Hampshire	85.7	AE
173	New Mexico	99.4	MWC
58	New Mexico St.	107.5	WAC
283	New Orleans	93.5	Slnd
288	Niagara	93.3	MAAC
320	Nicholls St.	90.8	Slnd
170	NJIT	99.5	ASun
254	Norfolk St.	94.9	MEAC
324	North Alabama	90.2	ASun
5	North Carolina	119.6	ACC
304	North Carolina A&T	92.1	MEAC
293	North Carolina Central	93.1	MEAC
28	North Carolina St.	112.2	ACC
274	North Dakota	94.1	Sum
204	North Dakota St.	97.6	Sum
214	North Florida	96.9	ASun
132	North Texas	102.7	CUSA
92	Northeastern	105.2	CAA
311	Northern Arizona	91.9	BSky
156	Northern Colorado	100.1	BSky
135	Northern Illinois	102.1	MAC
198	Northern Iowa	98.0	MVC
96	Northern Kentucky	104.7	Horz
56	Northwestern	107.9	B10
341	Northwestern St.	86.7	Slnd
82	Notre Dame	105.8	ACC
208	Oakland	97.5	Horz
201	Ohio	97.8	MAC
31	Ohio St.	111.6	B10
35	Oklahoma	111.2	B12
99	Oklahoma St.	104.5	B12
105	Old Dominion	104.0	CUSA
168	Omaha	99.6	Sum
308	Oral Roberts	92.0	Sum
53	Oregon	108.4	P12
69	Oregon St.	106.7	P12
207	Pacific	97.5	WCC
115	Penn	103.5	Ivy
72	Penn St.	106.6	B10
158	Pepperdine	100.1	WCC
76	Pittsburgh	106.2	ACC
322	Portland	90.4	WCC
268	Portland St.	94.3	BSky
259	Prairie View A&M	94.7	SWAC
192	Presbyterian	98.1	BSth
149	Princeton	100.8	Ivy
79	Providence	106.0	BE
10	Purdue	116.4	B10
177	Purdue Fort Wayne	99.0	Sum
227	Quinnipiac	96.3	MAAC
133	Radford	102.6	BSth
106	Rhode Island	103.9	A10
258	Rice	94.7	CUSA
193	Richmond	98.1	A10
157	Rider	100.1	MAAC
232	Robert Morris	96.1	NEC
98	Rutgers	104.6	B10
249	Sacramento St.	95.1	BSky
234	Sacred Heart	95.8	NEC
182	Saint Joseph’s	98.8	A10
124	Saint Louis	103.1	A10
41	Saint Mary’s	110.4	WCC
313	Saint Peter’s	91.8	MAAC
180	Sam Houston St.	98.9	Slnd
152	Samford	100.6	SC
89	San Diego	105.3	WCC
117	San Diego St.	103.4	MWC
47	San Francisco	109.5	WCC
340	San Jose St.	86.9	MWC
229	Santa Clara	96.2	WCC
349	Savannah St.	84.2	MEAC
187	Seattle	98.4	WAC
60	Seton Hall	107.4	BE
253	Siena	94.9	MAAC
330	SIU Edwardsville	89.4	OVC
95	SMU	104.8	Amer
215	South Alabama	96.8	SB
90	South Carolina	105.2	SEC
336	South Carolina St.	88.5	MEAC
225	South Dakota	96.4	Sum
74	South Dakota St.	106.2	Sum
114	South Florida	103.5	Amer
315	Southeast Missouri St.	91.1	OVC
300	Southeastern Louisiana	92.7	Slnd
338	Southern	87.9	SWAC
150	Southern Illinois	100.7	MVC
137	Southern Miss	101.8	CUSA
289	Southern Utah	93.2	BSky
144	St. Bonaventure	101.2	A10
252	St. Francis (BKN)	94.9	NEC
245	St. Francis PA	95.4	NEC
45	St. John’s	109.6	BE
129	Stanford	102.8	P12
272	Stephen F. Austin	94.2	Slnd
342	Stetson	86.5	ASun
160	Stony Brook	100.0	AE
32	Syracuse	111.5	ACC
37	TCU	110.7	B12
71	Temple	106.6	Amer
6	Tennessee	119.3	SEC
295	Tennessee St.	92.9	OVC
328	Tennessee Tech	90.0	OVC
34	Texas	111.3	B12
113	Texas A&M	103.5	SEC
280	Texas A&M CC	93.8	Slnd
202	Texas Southern	97.7	SWAC
104	Texas St.	104.1	SB
17	Texas Tech	114.2	B12
251	The Citadel	94.9	SC
61	Toledo	107.4	MAC
262	Towson	94.6	CAA
203	Troy	97.7	SB
285	Tulane	93.4	Amer
134	Tulsa	102.5	Amer
171	UAB	99.5	CUSA
250	UC Davis	95.1	BW
147	UC Irvine	101.0	BW
226	UC Riverside	96.3	BW
169	UC Santa Barbara	99.5	BW
97	UCLA	104.7	P12
164	UMass Lowell	99.7	AE
337	UNC Asheville	88.2	BSth
181	UNC Greensboro	98.9	SC
195	UNC Wilmington	98.0	CAA
184	UNLV	98.6	MWC
107	USC	103.9	P12
241	USC Upstate	95.6	BSth
256	UT Arlington	94.7	SB
277	UT Martin	94.0	OVC
246	UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3	WAC
126	Utah	103.0	P12
44	Utah St.	109.6	MWC
127	Utah Valley	103.0	WAC
264	UTEP	94.5	CUSA
175	UTSA	99.1	CUSA
190	Valparaiso	98.2	MVC
125	Vanderbilt	103.1	SEC
65	Vermont	107.0	AE
18	Villanova	113.9	BE
3	Virginia	122.1	ACC
54	Virginia Commonwealth	108.2	A10
7	Virginia Tech	117.6	ACC
319	VMI	90.8	SC
278	Wagner	94.0	NEC
165	Wake Forest	99.6	ACC
39	Washington	110.5	P12
228	Washington St.	96.3	P12
163	Weber St.	99.8	BSky
81	West Virginia	105.9	B12
299	Western Carolina	92.7	SC
279	Western Illinois	93.9	Sum
112	Western Kentucky	103.6	CUSA
255	Western Michigan	94.9	MAC
130	Wichita St.	102.7	Amer
221	William & Mary	96.6	CAA
162	Winthrop	99.9	BSth
13	Wisconsin	115.6	B10
36	Wofford	111.1	SC
148	Wright St.	100.9	Horz
325	Wyoming	90.2	MWC
93	Xavier	105.1	BE
84	Yale	105.7	Ivy
292	Youngstown St.	93.1	Horz

 

Ratings By Conference

#	America East	PiRate
65	Vermont	107.0
160	Stony Brook	100.0
164	UMass Lowell	99.7
194	Hartford	98.0
205	Maryland Baltimore Co.	97.6
273	Albany	94.1
317	Maine	91.0
333	Binghamton	88.8
345	New Hampshire	85.7
#	American Athletic	PiRate
20	Houston	112.9
29	Cincinnati	112.0
52	Central Florida	108.5
71	Temple	106.6
73	Connecticut	106.5
86	Memphis	105.6
95	SMU	104.8
114	South Florida	103.5
130	Wichita St.	102.7
134	Tulsa	102.5
276	East Carolina	94.0
285	Tulane	93.4
#	Atlantic 10	PiRate
54	Virginia Commonwealth	108.2
70	Dayton	106.6
80	Davidson	106.0
106	Rhode Island	103.9
123	George Mason	103.2
124	Saint Louis	103.1
144	St. Bonaventure	101.2
154	Duquesne	100.2
179	Massachusetts	98.9
182	Saint Joseph’s	98.8
193	Richmond	98.1
218	La Salle	96.7
238	Fordham	95.7
244	George Washington	95.5
#	Atlantic Coast	PiRate
1	Duke	124.0
3	Virginia	122.1
5	North Carolina	119.6
7	Virginia Tech	117.6
16	Louisville	114.3
24	Florida St.	112.5
28	North Carolina St.	112.2
32	Syracuse	111.5
42	Clemson	110.3
75	Miami (Fla)	106.2
76	Pittsburgh	106.2
82	Notre Dame	105.8
85	Georgia Tech	105.7
110	Boston College	103.7
165	Wake Forest	99.6
#	Atlantic Sun	PiRate
43	Lipscomb	110.2
67	Liberty	106.9
170	NJIT	99.5
214	North Florida	96.9
240	Florida Gulf Coast	95.6
261	Jacksonville	94.6
324	North Alabama	90.2
342	Stetson	86.5
344	Kennesaw St.	85.7
#	Big 12	PiRate
12	Iowa St.	115.7
14	Kansas	115.3
17	Texas Tech	114.2
30	Baylor	111.8
34	Texas	111.3
35	Oklahoma	111.2
37	TCU	110.7
38	Kansas St.	110.6
81	West Virginia	105.9
99	Oklahoma St.	104.5
#	Big East	PiRate
18	Villanova	113.9
21	Marquette	112.6
45	St. John’s	109.6
46	Creighton	109.5
51	Butler	108.8
60	Seton Hall	107.4
78	Georgetown	106.1
79	Providence	106.0
93	Xavier	105.1
102	DePaul	104.2
#	Big Sky	PiRate
108	Montana	103.8
156	Northern Colorado	100.1
163	Weber St.	99.8
249	Sacramento St.	95.1
268	Portland St.	94.3
269	Montana St.	94.3
289	Southern Utah	93.2
296	Eastern Washington	92.9
307	Idaho St.	92.0
311	Northern Arizona	91.9
339	Idaho	87.2
#	Big South	PiRate
133	Radford	102.6
162	Winthrop	99.9
183	Gardner Webb	98.8
189	Campbell	98.2
192	Presbyterian	98.1
211	Charleston Southern	97.1
217	High Point	96.7
220	Hampton	96.6
241	USC Upstate	95.6
303	Longwood	92.2
337	UNC Asheville	88.2
#	Big Ten	PiRate
4	Michigan St.	120.1
9	Michigan	117.0
10	Purdue	116.4
13	Wisconsin	115.6
22	Maryland	112.6
23	Nebraska	112.5
25	Iowa	112.5
31	Ohio St.	111.6
40	Indiana	110.5
56	Northwestern	107.9
57	Minnesota	107.7
72	Penn St.	106.6
83	Illinois	105.8
98	Rutgers	104.6
#	Big West	PiRate
147	UC Irvine	101.0
161	Cal St. Fullerton	100.0
169	UC Santa Barbara	99.5
197	Hawaii	98.0
219	Long Beach St.	96.7
226	UC Riverside	96.3
250	UC Davis	95.1
287	Cal St. Northridge	93.3
329	Cal Poly	89.7
#	Colonial Athletic	PiRate
66	Hofstra	106.9
92	Northeastern	105.2
121	Charleston	103.2
195	UNC Wilmington	98.0
221	William & Mary	96.6
242	Drexel	95.5
247	Delaware	95.3
262	Towson	94.6
271	James Madison	94.2
321	Elon	90.7
#	Conference USA	PiRate
105	Old Dominion	104.0
112	Western Kentucky	103.6
132	North Texas	102.7
137	Southern Miss	101.8
139	Louisiana Tech	101.8
171	UAB	99.5
174	Marshall	99.4
175	UTSA	99.1
200	Florida Atlantic	97.8
223	Florida Int’l.	96.4
258	Rice	94.7
264	UTEP	94.5
286	Middle Tennessee	93.4
310	Charlotte	91.9
#	Horizon	PiRate
96	Northern Kentucky	104.7
148	Wright St.	100.9
185	IUPUI	98.6
206	Green Bay	97.5
208	Oakland	97.5
212	Illinois Chicago	97.0
237	Detroit	95.7
282	Milwaukee	93.7
292	Youngstown St.	93.1
302	Cleveland St.	92.2
#	Ivy	PiRate
84	Yale	105.7
101	Harvard	104.3
115	Penn	103.5
138	Brown	101.8
149	Princeton	100.8
188	Dartmouth	98.3
243	Columbia	95.5
248	Cornell	95.3
#	Metro Atlantic	PiRate
157	Rider	100.1
224	Iona	96.4
227	Quinnipiac	96.3
239	Canisius	95.6
253	Siena	94.9
265	Marist	94.5
275	Fairfield	94.0
288	Niagara	93.3
291	Monmouth	93.2
313	Saint Peter’s	91.8
326	Manhattan	90.1
#	Mid-American	PiRate
19	Buffalo	113.2
61	Toledo	107.4
103	Ball St.	104.2
120	Akron	103.3
122	Bowling Green	103.2
135	Northern Illinois	102.1
142	Central Michigan	101.5
145	Miami (O)	101.1
146	Kent St.	101.1
172	Eastern Michigan	99.4
201	Ohio	97.8
255	Western Michigan	94.9
#	Mideastern Athletic	PiRate
254	Norfolk St.	94.9
293	North Carolina Central	93.1
304	North Carolina A&T	92.1
306	Bethune Cookman	92.0
318	Howard	91.0
323	Florida A&M	90.3
335	Morgan St.	88.7
336	South Carolina St.	88.5
346	Coppin St.	85.3
349	Savannah St.	84.2
351	Maryland Eastern Shore	81.3
353	Delaware St.	80.7
#	Missouri Valley	PiRate
109	Loyola (Chi)	103.7
128	Drake	102.9
150	Southern Illinois	100.7
155	Missouri St.	100.1
159	Illinois St.	100.0
190	Valparaiso	98.2
191	Evansville	98.2
198	Northern Iowa	98.0
209	Indiana St.	97.4
210	Bradley	97.2
#	Mountain West	PiRate
15	Nevada	115.1
44	Utah St.	109.6
63	Fresno St.	107.3
117	San Diego St.	103.4
131	Boise St.	102.7
173	New Mexico	99.4
184	UNLV	98.6
186	Colorado St.	98.5
263	Air Force	94.6
325	Wyoming	90.2
340	San Jose St.	86.9
#	Northeast	PiRate
231	Fairleigh Dickinson	96.1
232	Robert Morris	96.1
234	Sacred Heart	95.8
245	St. Francis PA	95.4
252	St. Francis (BKN)	94.9
266	Long Island	94.4
278	Wagner	94.0
312	Central Connecticut	91.8
331	Mount St. Mary’s	89.0
332	Bryant	88.9
#	Ohio Valley	PiRate
62	Murray St.	107.3
68	Belmont	106.8
116	Austin Peay	103.5
119	Jacksonville St.	103.3
235	Eastern Kentucky	95.8
257	Morehead St.	94.7
277	UT Martin	94.0
295	Tennessee St.	92.9
298	Eastern Illinois	92.8
315	Southeast Missouri St.	91.1
328	Tennessee Tech	90.0
330	SIU Edwardsville	89.4
#	Pac-12	PiRate
39	Washington	110.5
50	Arizona St.	109.0
53	Oregon	108.4
59	Arizona	107.5
69	Oregon St.	106.7
88	Colorado	105.3
97	UCLA	104.7
107	USC	103.9
126	Utah	103.0
129	Stanford	102.8
228	Washington St.	96.3
281	California	93.7
#	Patriot	PiRate
136	Bucknell	101.8
143	Lehigh	101.4
153	Colgate	100.2
176	American	99.1
213	Holy Cross	97.0
216	Boston University	96.8
233	Army	96.0
284	Loyola (MD)	93.4
305	Navy	92.0
309	Lafayette	91.9
#	Southeastern	PiRate
6	Tennessee	119.3
8	Kentucky	117.4
11	Auburn	116.0
26	Mississippi St.	112.4
27	LSU	112.2
33	Florida	111.3
48	Mississippi	109.4
49	Alabama	109.0
55	Arkansas	108.1
90	South Carolina	105.2
94	Missouri	104.9
100	Georgia	104.5
113	Texas A&M	103.5
125	Vanderbilt	103.1
#	Southern	PiRate
36	Wofford	111.1
64	East Tennessee St.	107.1
87	Furman	105.6
152	Samford	100.6
166	Mercer	99.6
181	UNC Greensboro	98.9
251	The Citadel	94.9
270	Chattanooga	94.2
299	Western Carolina	92.7
319	VMI	90.8
#	Southland	PiRate
167	Abilene Christian	99.6
180	Sam Houston St.	98.9
222	Lamar	96.5
272	Stephen F. Austin	94.2
280	Texas A&M CC	93.8
283	New Orleans	93.5
294	Houston Baptist	93.0
297	Central Arkansas	92.8
300	Southeastern Louisiana	92.7
314	McNeese St.	91.4
320	Nicholls St.	90.8
341	Northwestern St.	86.7
343	Incarnate Word	85.8
#	Southwestern Athletic	PiRate
202	Texas Southern	97.7
259	Prairie View A&M	94.7
290	Grambling	93.2
316	Alabama St.	91.1
327	Jackson St.	90.0
334	Arkansas Pine Bluff	88.7
338	Southern	87.9
347	Alcorn St.	84.8
348	Alabama A&M	84.7
350	Mississippi Valley St.	83.3
#	Summit	PiRate
74	South Dakota St.	106.2
168	Omaha	99.6
177	Purdue Fort Wayne	99.0
204	North Dakota St.	97.6
225	South Dakota	96.4
274	North Dakota	94.1
279	Western Illinois	93.9
301	Denver	92.3
308	Oral Roberts	92.0
#	Sun Belt	PiRate
104	Texas St.	104.1
111	Georgia St.	103.6
118	Georgia Southern	103.4
141	Coastal Carolina	101.5
151	Louisiana Monroe	100.6
178	Louisiana	98.9
196	Appalachian St.	98.0
203	Troy	97.7
215	South Alabama	96.8
230	Little Rock	96.2
256	UT Arlington	94.7
267	Arkansas St.	94.4
#	West Coast	PiRate
2	Gonzaga	122.5
41	Saint Mary’s	110.4
47	San Francisco	109.5
89	San Diego	105.3
91	BYU	105.2
140	Loyola Marymount	101.7
158	Pepperdine	100.1
207	Pacific	97.5
229	Santa Clara	96.2
322	Portland	90.4
#	Western Athletic	PiRate
58	New Mexico St.	107.5
77	Grand Canyon	106.1
127	Utah Valley	103.0
187	Seattle	98.4
199	Cal St. Bakersfield	97.8
236	California Baptist	95.8
246	UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3
260	Missouri Kansas City	94.7
352	Chicago St.	80.9

 

Conferences Rated

#	League		PiRate Avg.
1	Big Ten		111.5
2	Atlantic Coast		111.4
3	Big 12		111.1
4	Southeastern		109.7
5	Big East		108.3
6	American Athletic		104.4
7	Pac-12		104.3
8	West Coast		103.9
9	Mid-American		102.4
10	Atlantic 10		101.1
11	Ivy		100.7
12	Mountain West		100.6
13	Missouri Valley		99.6
14	Southern		99.6
15	Sun Belt		99.2
16	Conference USA		98.6
17	Colonial Athletic		98.0
18	Western Athletic		97.7
19	Horizon		97.1
20	Patriot		97.0
21	Ohio Valley		96.8
22	Summit		96.8
23	Big South		96.7
24	Big West		96.6
25	Atlantic Sun		96.2
26	America East		95.8
27	Big Sky		95.0
28	Metro Atlantic		94.6
29	Northeast		93.6
30	Southland		93.1
31	Southwestern Athletic		89.6
32	Mideastern Athletic		88.5

 

Looking Ahead At March Madness

We are less than six weeks away from Selection Sunday, and if you have followed the PiRate Ratings for any amount of time, you know that Selection Sunday is our busiest time of the year.  We have become known for our course in Bracketnomics where we apply numerical data and compare it historically to past national champions in an effort to pick the next champion or at the least isolate the handful of teams that have a championship resume based on numerical data.

Over the weekend, we ran the data on a group of contenders to see how they look at this point in the season.  Of course, most of the power conferences have played less than 50% of their league schedules, and these statistics will swing wildly in the next 40 days.  Let’s look at who has that championship look in early February.

The Four Factors

We hope that most if not all of you reading this post today know what the four factors are, and you know they are actually two sets of four factors, since we need to know the data for every team offensively and defensively.

If you need a primer on the four factors, you can find an excellent discussion of it at: https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html

Please note that the PiRate Ratings’ Four Factors differ from these NBA Four Factors by a tad, especially in FT Rate formula and the calculation of TO Rate, because the rules in the NBA free throw rules differ from the NCAA.

The PiRate Ratings also weight these four factors a little differently than the way they are rated for NBA teams.  It is our own proprietary formula.

Here is a factor by factor list of 18 teams that are shining just two months before that one shining moment.

Effective Field Goal % Difference

Team	FG% Diff
Virginia	24.2
Gonzaga	15.3
Michigan St.	14.0
Tennessee	11.4
Duke	11.4
Virginia Tech	11.0
Wisconsin	9.7
Houston	9.5
Marquette	8.5
Iowa St.	8.3
Michigan	7.8
Washington	7.7
Nevada	7.6
Kentucky	5.9
Villanova	5.7
North Carolina	5.3
Purdue	3.1

The Virginia number just pops off the page.  This is a number not seen very often in the past.  I am sure that if you went back to the 1960’s and 1970’s, and you somehow factor in which shots would have counted for three points back then if there had been a three-point shot, then maybe one or two of the great UCLA teams with exceptional outside shooters combined with a Kareem Abdul Jabbar or Bill Walton, might have enjoyed an effective FG% difference of 24%.

The next five on this list have really fat differences in effective shooting percentages, and you probably know that this stat is worth in the neighborhood of half the value of the Factors.  The name of the game is to put the ball into the basket more than the other team, so obviously shooting percentage on offense and defense is the key factor.

Turnover Rate Difference

Team	TO Rate
Michigan	5.2
Nevada	5.0
Virginia Tech	4.7
Purdue	4.6
Gonzaga	4.5
Iowa St.	3.9
Virginia	3.8
Duke	3.7
Tennessee	3.1
Wisconsin	2.6
Kentucky	2.0
North Carolina	2.0
Houston	1.8
Washington	1.8
Villanova	1.1
Marquette	-2.0
Michigan St.	-3.7

Anything over 3 is really good in this stat, so there are nine teams that are exploiting their opposition in this department.  As you will see later down, there is an additional step we take that includes turnovers that helps us determine who can take more advantage than other teams.

In the case of Marquette and Michigan State, their TO rates are negative, which means this is an exploitable opportunity for their opponents.  Michigan State does not force a lot of turnovers, and this hurt the Spartans when they lost to Purdue recently.

Rebound Rate Difference

Team	Reb Rate
North Carolina	12.0
Kentucky	11.7
Houston	8.8
Duke	8.0
Michigan St.	7.7
Purdue	7.5
Virginia	7.1
Gonzaga	4.6
Villanova	4.5
Marquette	3.7
Tennessee	2.6
Virginia Tech	2.6
Michigan	2.4
Nevada	-0.1
Iowa St.	-0.5
Washington	-2.0
Wisconsin	-3.5

Kentucky and North Carolina basically retrieve 56% of the normalized rebounds in their games.  Normalized refers to the factoring of potential offensive rebounds and potential defensive rebounds into one stat that predicts what an average team would be expected to perform given the offensive and defensive rebounding opportunities.

The bottom four on this list have negative rebound rates, something you rarely see by a Final Four team.  In the Big Dance, after you arrive at the Sweet 16, your opponent usually forces you to miss more shots that you normally miss, thus making rebounding more important after March 20 than before March 20.

Free Throw Rate Difference

Team	FT Rate
Kentucky	10.7
Nevada	9.4
Gonzaga	7.6
Tennessee	6.4
Michigan	5.3
Iowa St.	5.2
Virginia	5.2
Virginia Tech	5.0
Villanova	4.9
Marquette	3.9
North Carolina	2.9
Washington	2.4
Houston	1.7
Duke	0.6
Michigan St.	0.3
Wisconsin	0.2
Purdue	-0.4

This is the least important of the Four Factors, but there is a reason to look at this stat.  Most of the teams at the top get the ball inside and force the other team to foul.  The fact that the other team’s players might get into foul trouble is what makes this stat important.  If the other team has one star player, getting that one player into foul trouble where he plays 24 minutes instead of 36 minutes has reduced his playing time by 1/3.  It can then be worth the equivalent of a 10-point swing.

Still, a team with a low FT Rate difference can overcome this liability and still get to the Final Four.

Weighted Four Factors Subtotal

What we refer to as wFF, is simply our calculation of the four factors and weighting them by each factor with Field Goal percentage rating as the most important and Free Throw percentage rating as the least important.  The final number is a good starting point in determining which teams have the best dancing resumes.

Team	wFF
Virginia	15.1
Gonzaga	10.4
Duke	8.0
Tennessee	7.7
Virginia Tech	7.7
Michigan St.	7.6
Houston	6.9
Kentucky	6.3
Michigan	6.1
Nevada	6.0
Iowa St.	5.7
North Carolina	5.3
Wisconsin	5.2
Marquette	4.9
Villanova	4.4
Washington	4.4
Purdue	3.7

The top four might easily be the #1 seeds in six weeks.  Isn’t this interesting in seeing that the weighted Four Factors gives us the potential top four?   Of course, these stats have been compiled against different strengths of schedule.  Let’s show you each of the 18 teams’ strengths of schedule.

Team	SOS
Michigan St.	61.6
Purdue	61.6
North Carolina	61.3
Duke	60.5
Wisconsin	60.4
Kentucky	58.6
Virginia	58.1
Michigan	57.6
Tennessee	57.2
Iowa St.	57.2
Villanova	56.6
Marquette	56.3
Gonzaga	56.1
Virginia Tech	56.1
Washington	54.7
Nevada	53.1
Houston	51.3

This number might not mean anything to you unless you follow our site like it is your hobby.  A SOS of 50 is average, but that means average for all 353 teams.  For a power conference team, anything under 55.5 means this team played a weak schedule.  When you see a team with an SOS of 58 or more, they have played a strong schedule.  When the SOS tops 60, it is a brutally tough schedule.

Sometimes, an SOS over 60 can work against a team, as they tire in March from playing such a brutal schedule.  When a team’s schedule is between 58 and 60, this is usually the optimum number, but there have been NCAA Champions from the ACC with 60+ SOS.

When you see a team with an SOS under 55, they have only a remote chance of making the Final Four, and basically no chance of winning the national championship.  Washington’s pathetic 54.7 does not bode well for the lone potential NCAA At-large team from the Pac-12.  Virginia Tech’s SOS is low for an ACC team, which can only mean that the Hokies have a tough schedule the rest of the way.

The Four Factors Meet SOS

Let’s combine the wFF with SOS to see which teams have the most impressive resumes to date.  This is another one of our own formulas that apply multiply SOS layers to the wFF number.

Team	PiRate
Virginia	84
Michigan St.	81
Duke	78
North Carolina	73
Wisconsin	70
Purdue	69
Kentucky	68
Tennessee	66
Gonzaga	65
Michigan	64
Iowa St.	62
Virginia Tech	62
Villanova	58
Marquette	58
Washington	54
Nevada	50
Houston	45

This certainly looks good for Virginia, but then again, the Cavaliers looked almost this good last year and then became the first #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed.  Might Virginia have an ax to grind in the heads of six opponents this year?  Before their coronation, let us remind you of the DePaul Blue Demons two generations ago.  DePaul was a number one seed three consecutive years, including the top overall seed in two of those years, and they lost in their opening round game all three times!  In these days of yore, there were 48 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Depaul lost to #8 seed UCLA in 1980, #9 seed Saint Joseph’s in 1981, and #8 seed Boston College in 1982.

Adding Some PiRate Ratings Exclusive Data

The PiRate Ratings created the R+T rating, using a formula that has shown that there are a select few teams that have the ability to go on scoring spurts that put the opponent away.

The R+T estimates the number of extra scoring opportunities a team enjoys in an average game.  It takes rebounding and turnover margin into account, but it further breaks down turnovers into steals and not steals.  When a team throws the ball away or commits a travelling turnover, the game stops, and the referee hands the ball to the other team but only after the defense is set in place.  When a steal is made, the team with the ball has an immediate scoring opportunity, so steals are more important than any other turnover as well as more important than defensive rebounds.

Here are the R+T ratings for the 18 teams

Team	R+T
North Carolina	24.1
Kentucky	24.0
Duke	23.0
Gonzaga	21.6
Houston	20.6
Virginia	20.2
Michigan St.	18.5
Purdue	16.5
Tennessee	15.5
Virginia Tech	14.2
Michigan	13.9
Nevada	11.8
Villanova	11.4
Iowa St.	10.7
Marquette	10.6
Washington	6.4
Wisconsin	6.3

Pay careful attention to those six teams with 20+ R+T Ratings.  These are teams that will go on scoring spurts to put the other team out of its misery.  North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, Gonzaga, Houston, and Virginia have fantastic advantages over the rest of the field.  In a tight game in the last half of March, a 10-0 spurt in three minutes is like a three-run homer to break up a tie game in the World Series in the 6th inning or later.

The six teams at the bottom of this list are what we might call upset victims.  Of course, these ratings can change in the next six weeks, but if the tournament began today, we would quickly discard these six teams with sub 12 R+T ratings.

The Four Best Resumes

After looking at the resumes for these 18, four have better overall numbers than the rest.  Three of them are the ACC powers, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia.  The fourth is Michigan State, but the Spartans have just lost star wing player Joshua Langford for the season and did not play well against Indiana without him.  We expect MSU’s stats to suffer enough that they will fall well behind the other top teams in the next six weeks.  That moves Kentucky into this group as the fourth of the four superior teams.  John Calipari deserves a lot of credit, because his team regularly improves from November to March.  Tennessee might be number one in the nation again this week, but we believe Kentucky is the best SEC team just by looking at this data.

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 13-17, 2018

We received a lot of comments last week from regular readers to this site that know how to contact us through another site.  We tend to keep our comments sections closed, because it becomes a task to monitor it for stuff that does not need to appear here.

The comments had nothing to do with our own picks last week.  We introduced five guest pickers, three of them members of the fairer sex, and overall, they had quite a successful week.

By far the overwhelming amount of responses were aimed at Buckeye Michelle.  The Ohio Transplant to the Sunny South merely went 5-0 picking 5 underdogs, and we received all kinds of comments pertaining to her, including a couple of marriage proposals.

Friday Dog 13 went 3-0 picking three prohibitive favorites that won by even larger scores than the line they were asked to cover.

Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2 in her seven picks, again, a very successful week that equates to a 56% Return on Investment.

Stewed Meat narrowly missed having a winning week, as Stewed went 2-3.  Bringing up the rear at 1-2 was Dean 615.

What about our own picks?  We suffered a lot of near misses and finished the week losing $90 imaginary after wagering $1,100 and going 5-6.  For the years, after two weeks, we are down $220 on a total of $1,700 wagered in our pretend bank account, so we are off to a bad year so far.

Just remember, all the picks you receive here this week and every week are free, and you should consider them worth exactly what you pay for them.

First, here are the PiRate’s official selections for the week.

Straight Spreads and Totals Selections–7

Favorite	Underdog	Spread/Total	Pick
Army	Hawaii	6	Army
Baylor	Duke	6.5	Duke
Minnesota	Miami (Ohio)	13	Minnesota
Denver	Oakland	46	Under
Washington	Indianapolis	47	Under
Cincinnati	Baltimore	1	Baltimore
Dallas	N.Y. Giants	3	Dallas

10-point Teaser Parlays–2

If you are unfamiliar with 10-point teasers, you can move the line by 10 points in your favor and play at less favorable odds than if you wager a straight wager against the spread or total.  By combining more than one game into a parlay, you can adjust the odds.  A 10-point teaser using three games makes the odds the same as wagering a straight wager.  You put up $11 of your money against $10 of the books, or what is referred to as -110 (You wager $110 versus the book wagering $100).

10-point teaser	3-team parlay -110
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Florida	Colorado St.	31	Colorado St.
Texas	USC	13.5	USC
Boston College	Wake Forest	15	Wake Forest

 

10-point teaser	3-team parlay -110
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Indiana	Ball St.	4	Indiana
Penn St.	Kent St.	24.5	Penn St.
Wisconsin	BYU	11	Wisconsin

The Land Sharps

Now for our special sharps–our 5 guest pickers.  They have been tasked with selecting 3, 5, 7, or 9 college games each week.  None of the 5 know what the other 4 are picking, so in some cases, more than one guest is picking the same game, and even though it did not happen this week, we are sure that at some point, they could be on opposite sides of the same game.

We search for the best available line at oddshark.com.

Buckeye Michelle (5-0 for the season)

Syracuse + 3 1/2 vs. Florida St.

LSU +10 vs. Auburn

Duke +6 1/2 vs. Baylor

San Diego St. +5 1/2 vs. Arizona St.

Toledo +10 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

Friday Dog 13 (3-0 for the season)

Missouri -6 vs. Purdue

Tennessee -30 1/2 vs. UTEP

Virginia -3 1/2 vs. Ohio

 

Cal Gal Tiffany  (5-2 for the season)

Florida Int’l. -4 vs. U Mass.

Army -6 vs. Hawaii

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

Washington – 6 1/2 vs. Utah

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Stewed Meat (2-3 for the season)

Colorado St. +20 1/2 vs. Florida

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

Oregon St. +3 1/2 vs. Nevada

Washington -6 1/2 vs. Utah

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

 

Dean 615 (1-2 for the season)

Notre Dame -14 vs. Vanderbilt

North Texas +7 vs. Arkansas

TCU +14 vs. Ohio St.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 2, 2018

Championship Fortnight is now in full force, as in just a little over 24 hours from this writing, the first automatic bid to the Big Dance will be awarded.  That bid will go to the winner of the Ohio Valley Conference, which is now down to four teams.  Murray State and Belmont have yet to play in the tournament, as the top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals.  It will be a major surprise if Austin Peay or Jacksonville St. steal this bid, as both Murray and Belmont have the talent to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament.

Here’s a look at Thursday’s exciting conference tournament action.  A lot of games came down to the last minute.

Atlantic Sun Semifinals

Florida Gulf Coast   95     North Florida   72

Lipscomb   77                     Jacksonville   62

Championship–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
3:00 PM	#1 Florida Gulf Coast	#2 Lipscomb	ESPN

 

Big South Quarterfinals

Radford   59               Longwood   53

Winthrop   72            Gardner-Webb   68

UNC-Asheville   71   Charleston Southern   66

Liberty   73                  Campbell   59

Semifinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#2 Radford	#3 Winthrop	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#1 UNC-Asheville	#5 Liberty	ESPN3
Championship–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
1:00 PM	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	ESPN

 

Big Ten Second Round

Wisconsin   59   Maryland 54

Michigan   77     Iowa   71   ot

Penn St.   65       Northwestern   57

Rutgers   76        Indiana   69

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Michigan St.	#9 Wisconsin	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#4 Nebraska	#5 Michigan	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#2 Ohio St.	#7 Penn St.	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#3 Purdue	#14 Rutgers	Big Ten
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:00 PM	Michigan St. or Wisconsin	Nebraska or Michigan	CBS
4:30 PM	Ohio St. or Penn St.	Purdue or Rutgers	CBS
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:30 PM			CBS

 

Metro Atlantic First Round

St. Peter’s   60      Monmouth   58

Quinnipiac   67    Siena   58

Fairfield   71        Marist   57

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Rider	#9 St. Peter’s	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#2 Canisius	#7 Quinnipiac	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#3 Niagara	#6 Fairfield	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#4 Iona	#5 Manhattan	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	Rider or St. Peter’s	Iona or Manhattan	ESPN3
9:30 PM	Canisius or Quinnipiac	Niagara or Fairfield	ESPN3
Championship–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			TBA

 

Missouri Valley First Round

Northern Iowa   60    Evansville   50

Missouri St.   83          Valparaiso   79

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Loyola (Chi.)	#9 Northern Iowa	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#4 Drake	#5 Bradley	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#2 Southern Illinois	#7 Missouri St.	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#3 Illinois St.	#6 Indiana St.	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:30 PM	Loyola/Evans/UNI	Drake or Bradley	CBSSN
5:00 PM	SIU/MSU/Valpo	Ill St. or Ind St.	CBSSN
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			CBS

 

Ohio Valley Quarterfinals

Jacksonville St.   73     Tennessee Tech   70

Austin Peay   73           Eastern Illinois   66

Semifinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Murray St.	#4 Jacksonville St.	ESPNU
9:30 PM	#2 Belmont	#3 Austin Peay	ESPNU
Championship–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Patriot League Quarterfinals

Bucknell   83        Loyola (MD)   78

Boston U   88        Lehigh   82

Colgate   76           Lafayette   54

Holy Cross   81     Navy   65

Semifinals–March 4
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
12:00 PM	#2 Colgate	#6 Holy Cross	CBSSN
2:00 PM	#1 Bucknell	#5 Boston U	CBSSN
Championship–March 7
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:30 PM			CBSSN

 

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Horizon League Tournament
Detroit (Motor City Madness)
All Times EST
First Round–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:30 PM	#7 Green Bay	#10 Detroit	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#8 Cleveland St.	#9 Youngstown St.	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 3
5:30 PM	#2 Wright St.	GB or Detroit	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#1 Northern Kentucky	Clev St or Youngs St.	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#3 UIC	#6 Milwaukee	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#4 Oakland	#5 IUPUI	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	NKU/CSU/YSU	Oakland or IUPUI	ESPNU
9:30 PM	Wright St./GB/Det	UIC or Milwaukee	ESPNU
Championship–March 6
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			TBA

 

Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
All Times EST
First Round–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#8 The Citadel	#9 VMI	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#7 Samford	#10 Chattanooga	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 UNC-Greensboro	Citadel or VMI	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#4 Mercer	#5 Wofford	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#2 East Tennessee St.	Samford or Chatt.	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#3 Furman	#6 Western Carolina	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:00 PM	UNCG/Cit/VMI	Mercer or Wofford	ESPN3
6:30 PM	ETSU/Sam/Chatt	Furman or WCU	ESPN3
Championship–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM			ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
First Round–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#8 Loyola Marymount	#9 Portland	NBCSN
8:00 PM	#7 Santa Clara	#10 Pepperdine	NBCSN
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	#3 BYU	#6 San Diego	NBCSN
3:00 PM	#4 San Francisco	#5 Pacific	NBCSN
7:00 PM	#1 Gonzaga	LMU or Portland	ESPN2
9:00 PM	#2 Saint Mary’s	Santa Clara or Pepperdine	ESPN2
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Gonz/LMU/Portland	USF or Pacific	ESPN
8:00 PM	SMU/SCU/Pepperdine	BYU or USD	ESPN2
Championship–March 6
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM			ESPN

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank	Team	PiRate Rating	Conf.
1	Virginia	118.0	ACC
2	Villanova	117.8	BIGE
3	Duke	117.3	ACC
4	Purdue	116.9	BTEN
5	Michigan St.	116.6	BTEN
6	Cincinnati	116.5	AAC
7	Kansas	114.3	B12
8	West Virginia	113.8	B12
9	North Carolina	113.8	ACC
10	Texas Tech	113.7	B12
11	Gonzaga	113.5	WCC
12	Tennessee	113.1	SEC
13	Xavier	112.5	BIGE
14	Auburn	112.4	SEC
15	Nevada	112.4	MWC
16	Wichita St.	112.1	AAC
17	Ohio St.	111.9	BTEN
18	Michigan	111.8	BTEN
19	Clemson	111.7	ACC
20	Kentucky	111.4	SEC
21	Houston	111.2	AAC
22	Florida	111.2	SEC
23	Butler	111.0	BIGE
24	Creighton	110.9	BIGE
25	TCU	110.6	B12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings For Power Conferences

And Top Mid-Majors

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Rhode Island	108.9	A10
Davidson	106.5	A10
St. Bonaventure	105.1	A10
St. Louis	102.8	A10
St. Joseph’s	101.5	A10
VCU	100.5	A10
LaSalle	100.2	A10
Dayton	99.2	A10
George Washington	98.0	A10
Duquesne	98.0	A10
Richmond	97.6	A10
George Mason	96.9	A10
Massachusetts	96.6	A10
Fordham	94.0	A10
Cincinnati	116.5	AAC
Wichita St.	112.1	AAC
Houston	111.2	AAC
SMU	106.0	AAC
Temple	104.9	AAC
UCF	104.4	AAC
Tulsa	102.4	AAC
Connecticut	99.5	AAC
Memphis	99.5	AAC
Tulane	99.1	AAC
South Florida	92.0	AAC
East Carolina	92.0	AAC
Virginia	118.0	ACC
Duke	117.3	ACC
North Carolina	113.8	ACC
Clemson	111.7	ACC
Louisville	110.4	ACC
Miami FL	109.6	ACC
Florida St.	109.5	ACC
Virginia Tech	109.3	ACC
Notre Dame	109.3	ACC
Syracuse	108.0	ACC
North Carolina St.	107.9	ACC
Boston College	105.2	ACC
Wake Forest	104.1	ACC
Georgia Tech	102.7	ACC
Pittsburgh	96.2	ACC
Kansas	114.3	B12
West Virginia	113.8	B12
Texas Tech	113.7	B12
TCU	110.6	B12
Baylor	110.3	B12
Texas	109.6	B12
Oklahoma	108.7	B12
Kansas St.	108.4	B12
Oklahoma St.	107.1	B12
Iowa St.	103.7	B12
Villanova	117.8	BIGE
Xavier	112.5	BIGE
Butler	111.0	BIGE
Creighton	110.9	BIGE
Seton Hall	109.9	BIGE
Marquette	107.1	BIGE
St. John’s	106.8	BIGE
Providence	106.5	BIGE
Georgetown	103.9	BIGE
DePaul	103.4	BIGE
Purdue	116.9	BTEN
Michigan St.	116.6	BTEN
Ohio St.	111.9	BTEN
Michigan	111.8	BTEN
Penn St.	110.2	BTEN
Maryland	108.5	BTEN
Nebraska	107.3	BTEN
Indiana	106.2	BTEN
Wisconsin	106.0	BTEN
Northwestern	105.5	BTEN
Illinois	103.9	BTEN
Iowa	103.5	BTEN
Minnesota	103.5	BTEN
Rutgers	102.8	BTEN
Arizona	110.1	PAC12
Arizona St.	108.9	PAC12
USC	108.3	PAC12
UCLA	106.9	PAC12
Oregon	106.8	PAC12
Utah	106.3	PAC12
Stanford	104.3	PAC12
Washington	103.8	PAC12
Oregon St.	103.1	PAC12
Colorado	102.7	PAC12
Washington St.	97.8	PAC12
California	95.4	PAC12
Tennessee	113.1	SEC
Auburn	112.4	SEC
Kentucky	111.4	SEC
Florida	111.2	SEC
Texas A&M	110.6	SEC
Arkansas	109.7	SEC
Missouri	108.9	SEC
Alabama	108.3	SEC
Mississippi St.	107.3	SEC
Georgia	106.7	SEC
South Carolina	106.4	SEC
LSU	105.8	SEC
Vanderbilt	103.9	SEC
Mississippi	103.7	SEC
Gonzaga	113.5	WCC
Saint Mary’s	109.2	WCC
BYU	105.6	WCC
San Diego	101.8	WCC
San Francisco	100.8	WCC
Pacific	98.4	WCC
Loyola Marymount	94.5	WCC
Portland	93.6	WCC
Santa Clara	93.5	WCC
Pepperdine	91.5	WCC
Middle Tennessee	109.4	CUSA
Loyola (Chi.)	108.2	MVC
Nevada	112.4	MWC
Boise St.	108.7	MWC
New Mexico St.	107.4	WAC

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads For Power Conference Games

and Conference Tournament Games

Home Team or Higher Seed	Visitor or Lower Seed	Spread
Belmont	Austin Peay	6.9
Canisius	Quinnipiac	8.4
Citadel	VMI	-2.7
Cleveland St.	Youngstown St.	1.2
Davidson	Rhode Island	1.1
Drake	Bradley	-0.7
Green Bay	Detroit	2.8
Illinois St.	Indiana St.	-0.3
Loyola (Chi.)	Northern Iowa	6.5
Michigan St.	Wisconsin	10.6
Murray St.	Jacksonville St.	5.2
Nebraska	Michigan	-4.5
Ohio St.	Penn St.	1.7
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	8.5
Purdue	Rutgers	14.1
Radford	Winthrop	-3.2
Rider	St. Peter’s	6.4
Samford	Chattanooga	3.0
Santa Clara	Pepperdine	2.0
Southern Illinois	Missouri St.	-0.9
UNCA	Liberty	4.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 1, 2018

Conference Tournament Action From Last Night

Big Ten Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
Iowa 96	Illinois 87
Rutgers 65	Minnesota 54

Updated Big Ten Bracket

Second Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 Maryland	#9 Wisconsin	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#5 Michigan	Iowa	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#7 Penn St.	#10 Northwestern	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#6 Indiana	Rutgers	Big Ten
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Michigan St.	Mary or Wisc	Big Ten
2:15 PM	#4 Nebraska	Michigan or Iowa	Big Ten
6:30 PM	#2 Ohio St.	PSU or N’Western	Big Ten
8:45 PM	#3 Purdue	Indiana or Rutgers	Big Ten
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:00 PM	MSU/Mary/Wisc	Neb/Mich/Iowa	CBS
4:30 PM	OSU/Purd/NW	Purd/Ind/Rutg	CBS
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
4:30 PM			CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
Wagner 73	Central Connecticut 61
Robert Morris 60	Mount St. Mary’s 56
Fairleigh-Dickinson 84	St. Francis (Pa) 75
Long Island 73	St. Francis (Bkn) 50

Updated Northeast Conference Bracket

Semifinals–March 3
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Wagner	#7 Robert Morris	ESPN3
2:00 PM	#4 Long Island	#6 Fairleigh-Dickinson	ESPN3
Championship–March 6
Time	Home Team	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	ESPN2

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
Tennessee Tech 60	SIU-Edwardsville 51
Eastern Illinois 73	Tennessee St. 71

Updated Ohio Valley Conference Bracket

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	#4 Jacksonville St.	Tennessee Tech	OVC
9:00 PM	#3 Austin Peay	Eastern Illinois	OVC
Semifinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Murray St.	Jax. St. or Tenn Tech	ESPNU
9:30 PM	#2 Belmont	APSU or E. Illinois	ESPNU
Championship–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament

All Games Played at Higher Seed

All Times EST

Semifinals–March 1
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Florida Gulf Coast	#5 North Florida	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#2 Lipscomb	#3 Jacksonville	ESPN3

 

Big South Conference Tournament

Championship Game at Higher Seed

Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed UNC-Asheville

All Times EST

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	#2 Radford	#10 Longwood	ESPN3
3:30 PM	#3 Winthrop	#6 Gardner-Webb	ESPN3
7:00 PM	#1 UNC-Asheville	#8 Charleston Southern	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#4 Campbell	#5 Liberty	ESPN3

 

Patriot League Tournament

All Games Played at Higher Seed

All Times EST

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Bucknell	#8 Loyola (MD)	Stadium
7:00 PM	#4 Lehigh	#5 Boston U	Stadium
7:00 PM	#2 Colgate	#7 Lafayette	Stadium
7:00 PM	#3 Navy	#6 Holy Cross	Stadium

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
First Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#8 Monmouth	#9 St. Peter’s	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#7 Quinnipiac	#10 Siena	ESPN3
10:00 PM	#6 Fairfield	#11 Marist	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Rider	Monmouth or St. Peter’s	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#2 Canisius	Quinn. or Siena	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#3 Niagara	Fair. or Marist	ESPN3
9:30 PM	#4 Iona	#5 Manhattan	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	Rider/Monm/St. P	Iona or Manhattan	ESPN3
9:30 PM	Can/Quinn/Siena	Niag/Fair/Marist	ESPN3
Championship–March 5
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			TBA

While Rider and Canisius tied for the regular season conference championship, there are two other teams to watch closely in this tournament.  Iona has the best offense in the league, and in a tournament, sometimes the team that plays loose and can fill it up from outside will get a large lead against the other team that begins tight and cannot hit their perimeter shots.  Iona is the two-time defending tournament champion, and until the Gaels lose, they are our favorite to win it again, even as the four-seed.

The other team to watch from back of the pack is Fairfield, the hottest team in the league entering the tournament.  The Stags match up quite well with Niagara, who they would face in the quarterfinal round if they win tonight.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
First Round–March 1
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#8 Evansville	#9 Northern Iowa	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#7 Missouri St.	#10 Valparaiso	ESPN3
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Loyola (Chi.)	Evansville or UNI	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#4 Drake	#5 Bradley	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#2 Southern Illinois	MSU or Valpo	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#3 Illinois St.	#6 Indiana St.	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 3
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:30 PM	Loyola/Evans/UNI	Drake or Bradley	CBSSN
5:00 PM	SIU/MSU/Valpo	Ill St. or Ind St.	CBSSN
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			CBS

Without Wichita State playing bully on the rest of the league, it was thought that the Valley would be a wide open race this year with a host of teams competing for the regular season and tournament championships.  However, Loyola (Chi.), with five players averaging double figure scoring, has been nearly unstoppable in conference play this year.  The Ramblers have only been to a single NCAA Tournament since their heydays of the 1960’s,   Loyola enters Arch Madness on a 14 for 15 winning streak.

If any other team wins this tournament, it will be a major upset and will produce a 15-seed or worse.  Loyola could be a 13-seed as the Tournament Champions.

There is one team from way back in the pack that has the potential to sneak into the semifinals.  Northern Iowa is the number 9 seed.  If they beat Evansville tonight, they might be the team that can match up best with Loyola, who they would face tomorrow.  If they were to eliminate the Goliath, then there isn’t another team in the field any better than the Panthers.

 

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Final Polls

Congratulations go to Coach Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the National Championship in a thrilling overtime victory over the Georgia Bulldogs.  Alabama wins the top spot in all three ratings, plus the retro rankings.  Here’s how the final numbers crunched.

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Georgia
3	Ohio St.
4	Wisconsin
5	Central Florida
6	Penn St.
7	Clemson
8	Oklahoma
9	Notre Dame
10	Auburn
11	TCU
12	Michigan St.
13	Miami (Fla)
14	USC
15	Washington
16	Oklahoma St.
17	Northwestern
18	North Carolina St.
19	Iowa
20	Stanford
21	Virginia Tech
22	Mississippi St.
23	LSU
24	Memphis
25	Boise St.
26	Michigan
27	Iowa St.
28	Wake Forest
29	South Florida
30	Louisville
31	South Carolina
32	Washington St.
33	Toledo
34	Florida Atlantic
35	Boston College
36	Florida St.
37	Texas
38	Purdue
39	Kansas St.
40	San Diego St.
41	Fresno St.
42	Troy
43	Army
44	Navy
45	Texas A&M
46	Duke
47	Georgia Tech
48	Oregon
49	Utah
50	West Virginia
51	Missouri
52	Arizona St.
53	Houston
54	Texas Tech
55	Kentucky
56	Arizona
57	UCLA
58	Appalachian St.
59	Ohio
60	Indiana
61	Ole Miss
62	Pittsburgh
63	California
64	Northern Illinois
65	Temple
66	SMU
67	Minnesota
68	Marshall
69	North Texas
70	Virginia
71	Wyoming
72	Florida
73	Syracuse
74	Maryland
75	Central Michigan
76	Colorado
77	Colorado St.
78	Nebraska
79	Western Michigan
80	Louisiana Tech
81	Tulane
82	Vanderbilt
83	Arkansas St.
84	Southern Miss.
85	Florida Int’l.
86	Arkansas
87	Akron
88	Buffalo
89	Middle Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	Tennessee
92	North Carolina
93	UAB
94	Eastern Michigan
95	Rutgers
96	Air Force
97	New Mexico St.
98	UTSA
99	Miami (O)
100	Cincinnati
101	Tulsa
102	UNLV
103	Western Kentucky
104	Baylor
105	BYU
106	East Carolina
107	Nevada
108	Georgia St.
109	Massachusetts
110	Connecticut
111	Illinois
112	Old Dominion
113	UL-Monroe
114	Bowling Green
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	South Alabama
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Coastal Carolina
122	Georgia Southern
123	Kansas
124	Kent St.
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	136.9	133.5	135.8	135.4
2	Ohio St.	132.3	130.2	132.6	131.7
3	Georgia	130.8	130.0	131.4	130.7
4	Clemson	131.3	128.6	130.9	130.3
5	Penn St.	129.4	128.1	129.8	129.1
6	Oklahoma	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
7	Auburn	127.0	125.2	127.2	126.5
8	Washington	126.2	124.2	126.1	125.5
9	Wisconsin	126.4	123.9	125.5	125.3
10	Oklahoma St.	121.2	120.4	121.6	121.1
11	Stanford	120.6	119.0	119.9	119.8
12	U S C	120.1	119.2	119.8	119.7
13	L S U	118.5	116.3	118.8	117.9
14	Virginia Tech	118.1	117.6	117.9	117.8
15	Miami	118.6	117.4	117.5	117.8
16	T C U	118.0	116.5	118.2	117.6
17	N. Carolina St.	117.1	116.2	117.0	116.8
18	Central Florida	116.0	116.9	117.2	116.7
19	Louisville	116.8	116.0	116.5	116.4
20	Notre Dame	116.6	115.4	116.8	116.2
21	Florida St.	116.9	116.0	115.7	116.2
22	Northwestern	115.4	114.2	115.5	115.0
23	Iowa	114.3	114.5	113.6	114.2
24	Michigan	114.2	114.0	113.4	113.9
25	Mississippi St.	113.5	113.3	113.3	113.4
26	Memphis	113.2	112.5	114.0	113.2
27	Iowa State	112.8	112.8	113.9	113.2
28	Texas	112.9	112.9	113.5	113.1
29	Kansas St.	112.9	112.7	113.0	112.9
30	Boston College	112.6	112.3	112.6	112.5
31	Michigan St.	111.0	111.6	112.1	111.6
32	Wake Forest	112.1	110.4	112.2	111.6
33	Duke	111.1	110.0	110.4	110.5
34	Utah	109.9	109.9	110.1	110.0
35	Oregon	110.5	108.6	109.9	109.7
36	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
37	Washington St.	109.8	107.7	109.3	108.9
38	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
39	S. Carolina	109.1	108.3	108.2	108.5
40	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
41	Missouri	108.5	107.1	107.8	107.8
42	Boise St.	107.5	106.1	107.6	107.1
43	Texas A&M	107.9	106.0	107.0	107.0
44	West Virginia	106.7	107.4	106.7	106.9
45	Arizona St.	106.4	105.3	106.0	105.9
46	Kentucky	106.4	105.7	105.0	105.7
47	Purdue	105.6	105.4	106.1	105.7
48	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
49	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
50	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
51	Arizona	106.0	104.9	104.9	105.3
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Florida Atlantic	103.4	104.9	105.3	104.5
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	Navy	103.5	104.1	103.7	103.8
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	U C L A	103.0	102.4	102.3	102.6
58	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
59	San Diego St.	101.5	101.5	102.5	101.8
60	Houston	101.4	101.1	101.5	101.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Army	100.9	100.8	101.3	101.0
63	Appalachian St.	101.2	100.0	101.4	100.9
64	Toledo	100.1	100.1	102.1	100.8
65	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Troy	99.7	99.8	99.9	99.8
68	Fresno St.	99.9	98.6	100.8	99.8
69	Colo. State	99.8	99.1	99.7	99.5
70	Virginia	99.6	98.6	99.9	99.4
71	Ohio U	98.3	99.6	99.3	99.1
72	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
73	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
74	Temple	98.2	98.5	98.8	98.5
75	Wyoming	97.8	96.9	97.2	97.3
76	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
77	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
78	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.0	95.8	95.2
79	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
80	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
81	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
82	Arkansas St.	93.8	95.0	94.7	94.5
83	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
84	SMU	94.0	94.5	94.3	94.3
85	Utah St.	94.0	93.3	93.7	93.7
86	Marshall	92.4	93.5	93.8	93.3
87	Central Michigan	92.8	93.1	93.4	93.1
88	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
89	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
90	Louisiana Tech	90.8	92.4	91.6	91.6
91	Middle Tennessee	90.4	91.4	91.6	91.1
92	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
93	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	Massachusetts	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
98	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
99	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
100	Florida Int’l.	87.6	88.0	88.4	88.0
101	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
102	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.4	87.8	87.9
103	N. Texas	86.4	87.8	86.9	87.0
104	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
105	N. Mexico St.	86.8	85.7	86.9	86.5
106	W. Kentucky	85.7	86.2	86.1	86.0
107	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
108	Akron	84.2	86.1	84.9	85.1
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Georgia St.	82.7	82.7	82.5	82.7
113	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
114	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
115	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
116	UL-Monroe	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
117	S. Alabama	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
118	Idaho	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
119	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
120	UAB	79.6	79.9	81.3	80.3
121	UL-Lafayette	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
122	Georgia Southern	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
123	Coastal Carolina	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
124	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	112.7	111.6	112.2	112.2
2	SEC	112.0	110.7	111.4	111.4
3	B12	109.8	109.9	110.0	109.9
4	P-12	109.4	108.1	108.6	108.7
5	BTEN	108.8	108.6	108.5	108.6
6	IND	99.1	98.6	99.2	99.0
7	AAC	97.9	98.3	98.2	98.1
8	MWC	92.2	92.2	92.3	92.2
9	MAC	88.2	89.1	89.0	88.8
10	CUSA	84.4	85.8	85.2	85.1
11	SBC	84.3	85.0	84.3	84.5

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Final Regular Season Polls

The PiRate Poll has been updated after the Conference Championship Games, and our ratings show something different from what the Playoff Committee will decide later today.

Our Retrodictive Ratings are our closest approximation to merit based rewards.  It only factors who you beat, where you beat them, when you beat them, and in minimal fashion how you beat them.  Here are our final Retro Ratings prior to the bowls and playoffs.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Georgia
3	Oklahoma
4	Alabama
5	Ohio St.
6	Wisconsin
7	Central Florida
8	Penn St.
9	Auburn
10	Washington
11	Miami (Fla)
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Oklahoma St.
17	Stanford
18	Michigan St.
19	Michigan
20	Washington St.
21	Northwestern
22	Memphis
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Toledo
33	Wake Forest
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Appalachian St.
75	Colorado
76	Colorado St.
77	Temple
78	Nebraska
79	Western Michigan
80	Tulane
81	Arkansas St.
82	Florida Int’l.
83	Akron
84	Southern Miss.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Cincinnati
100	Western Kentucky
101	Tulsa
102	UNLV
103	Baylor
104	New Mexico St.
105	BYU
106	East Carolina
107	Nevada
108	Georgia St.
109	Massachusetts
110	Connecticut
111	Illinois
112	Old Dominion
113	UL-Monroe
114	Bowling Green
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	South Alabama
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Coastal Carolina
122	Georgia Southern
123	Kansas
124	Kent St.
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

While our ratings show that Alabama should be chosen ahead of Ohio State, we believe there will be too much pressure to take two SEC teams and leave out the Big Ten and Pac-12, especially when the Rose Bowl is one of the semifinal games.

Our ratings reflect a 34-point loss by Ohio State at a mediocre Iowa team combined with a home loss to Oklahoma, which slightly offsets their wins over Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Alabama’s best wins were not as impressive as the Buckeyes, but as a whole, they did beat more decent teams, and the SEC is several points better than the Big Ten.  Plus, their one loss was at Auburn, a team that had just blown Georgia off the Jordan-Hare Field.  Truth be told, if the Committee deferred to the smart guys in Nevada, Alabama would be the number one seed in the playoffs.

Our Predictive ratings back us up on this point.  However, the predictive ratings show that Ohio State is one of the four best teams at this point of the season.  We are scratching our heads on why Oklahoma is so low in the predictive ratings, because they have been improving week by week.  Unfortunately, they may have fallen between the cracks in how we update.  We have a mechanical update based on statistics and the point in which an easy win was already guaranteed, and maybe OU kept missing out on extra points due to a few yards here or there.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Clemson	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
3	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
4	Georgia	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
5	Auburn	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
6	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
7	Oklahoma	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
11	U S C	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
12	Stanford	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
13	Miami	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
14	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
15	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
16	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
17	T C U	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
18	Florida St.	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
46	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
47	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
48	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
49	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
50	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
51	Boise St.	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Florida Atlantic	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
63	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
64	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
65	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Fresno St.	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
71	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
74	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
75	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
76	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
77	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Arkansas St.	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
80	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
81	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
82	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
83	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
84	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
85	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
92	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	Massachusetts	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
98	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
99	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
100	Akron	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
103	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
104	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
105	N. Texas	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
113	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
114	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
115	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
116	UL-Monroe	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
117	S. Alabama	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
118	Idaho	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
119	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
120	Georgia St.	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
121	UL-Lafayette	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
122	Georgia Southern	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
123	Coastal Carolina	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
124	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	12-0	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-2	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	12-1	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	6-6	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-2	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	12-1	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-3	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	11-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-1	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	10-3	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	8-4	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
N. Texas	7-1	9-4	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-8	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Akron	6-2	7-6	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	11-2	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	10-3	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-4	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-4	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	11-2	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	12-1	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-3	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	7-1	10-2	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
Appalachian St.	7-1	8-4	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
Arkansas St.	6-2	7-4	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
N. Mexico St.	4-4	6-6	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-8	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
S. Alabama	3-5	4-8	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
Idaho	3-5	4-8	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
Georgia St.	5-3	6-5	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
UL-Lafayette	4-4	5-7	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
Georgia Southern	2-6	2-10	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
Coastal Carolina	2-6	3-9	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.1