Sunday’s Games
| Sunday, March 20, 2022 | ||
| Team | Team | Spread |
| Illinois | Houston | -3.3 |
| Villanova | Ohio St. | 4.4 |
| Duke | Michigan St. | 6.5 |
| Wisconsin | Iowa St. | 3.8 |
| Texas Tech | Notre Dame | 7.3 |
| Auburn | Miami (Fla.) | 8.9 |
| Purdue | Texas | 2.6 |
| Arizona | TCU | 10.3 |
| Xavier | Florida | 2.6 |
| SMU | Washington St. | 2.7 |
| Vanderbilt | Dayton | 2.3 |
| North Texas | Virginia | 3.2 |
| Oklahoma | St. Bonaventure | 6.7 |
| VMI | UNC Wilmington | 0.7 |
| Florida Atlantic | Northern Colorado | 5.7 |
| UNC Greensboro | Boston | 1.3 |
| Abilene Christian | Troy | 3.9 |
Sunday’s Bracketnomics Data
| Team | O-Eff | D-Eff | SOS | 37+ 3pt | OReb% | -45% vs. 2pt | FT Rate 37 | R + T New Rate | R+T Old Rate |
| Illinois | 23 | 30 | 60.7 | 36.7 | 33.4 | 45.4 | 31.7 | 7.7 | 12.8 |
| Houston | 10 | 11 | 56.0 | 34.1 | 37.8 | 43.5 | 28.7 | 14.3 | 22.2 |
| Villanova | 8 | 28 | 61.0 | 35.9 | 30.9 | 48.2 | 30.5 | 4.8 | 11.5 |
| Ohio St. | 13 | 131 | 60.0 | 37.3 | 28.8 | 46.2 | 33.5 | -1.0 | 6.0 |
| Duke | 7 | 44 | 57.6 | 36.8 | 31.8 | 46.9 | 28.6 | 4.1 | 12.7 |
| Michigan St. | 38 | 53 | 60.8 | 37.8 | 30.7 | 47.9 | 30.4 | 3.0 | 8.5 |
| Wisconsin | 49 | 38 | 60.1 | 31.2 | 25.9 | 49.9 | 32.3 | 3.4 | 7.3 |
| Iowa St. | 151 | 10 | 59.7 | 36.8 | 28.2 | 50.7 | 28.1 | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| Texas Tech | 65 | 1 | 60.8 | 31.4 | 33.3 | 44.3 | 36.1 | 9.6 | 17.5 |
| Notre Dame | 29 | 84 | 56.8 | 38.0 | 22.5 | 49.3 | 27.0 | -2.5 | 3.8 |
| Auburn | 24 | 8 | 59.2 | 32.0 | 33.1 | 42.6 | 31.6 | 5.9 | 12.5 |
| Miami (Fla.) | 17 | 157 | 57.0 | 35.3 | 23.4 | 53.9 | 28.8 | -5.0 | 1.3 |
| Purdue | 3 | 100 | 60.0 | 39.1 | 35.2 | 49.2 | 36.3 | 12.1 | 19.2 |
| Texas | 32 | 13 | 60.2 | 32.3 | 31.8 | 46.1 | 32.3 | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| Arizona | 5 | 20 | 58.2 | 35.4 | 34.5 | 41.9 | 35.1 | 7.0 | 17.9 |
| TCU | 80 | 24 | 60.3 | 30.4 | 37.8 | 47.9 | 31.2 | 12.5 | 16.9 |
Sunday’s Bracketnomics Game Analysis
Illinois vs. Houston
This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).
Villanova vs. Ohio St.
This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.
This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.
Duke vs. Michigan St.
Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.
The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.
This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.
Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame
If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.
Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)
Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.
Purdue vs. Texas
This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.
Arizona vs. TCU
One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 