PiRate Ratings Going Ahead As Planned

Hello to all of our patrons and occasional readers.  The PiRate Ratings are currently going under the preseason compilation for both College and Pro football as if nothing has changed from the past.

Should the season be postponed or other major changes are made, we will do our best to adjust the ratings based on whatever presents itself.

Additionally, we will not participate in any political commentary or make any comments other than mathematical and historical counts.  That means that even though 2020 is an election year, we have chosen to stay out entirely from issuing any electoral vote count predictions and all the House and Senate forecasts.

We want this to be an escape for you to visit to get away from all other outside forces.  We are strongly considering adding a potential tabletop football game like we did several years ago with a “best of” tournament between some of the greatest college football teams of all time, similar to how we did this as a replacement to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, won by the 1968 UCLA Bruins.

Additionally, we are also considering putting a package together where people can send a small payment here, and we will send you the PDF files to print the “best of franchise” NFL and AFL teams between 1960 and 1979 with instructions on how you can cheaply print and have your own tabletop football strategy game to play.  We currently do not have a zip file creator on the PiRate ship.

One more heads up.  WordPress has begun to phase out the original editor, and they may force a new editor to be used, one that is not friendly to pasting tables from our spreadsheet.  If for any reason we find it impossible to paste our spreadsheet tables into this site, we will create a new site and leave the link to that site as the final posting here. Let’s hope we can get through the season without having to make that change.

If all goes according to the norm, expect to see the preseason PiRate College Football Ratings around August 20 and the NFL Football Ratings within hours after the teams make their final cuts the first Saturday in September.

Sincerely

The Captain

PiRate Ratings For Conference Championship Round January 19, 2020

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kansas City	Tennessee	5.5	6.0	7.0
San Francisco	Green Bay	7.3	7.8	7.5

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Kansas City	Tennessee	51
San Francisco	Green Bay	49.5

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for the Wildcat Playoff Round January 4-5, 2020

This Week’s PiRate Ratings For Wildcard Playoff Round

January 4-5, 2020

 

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Buffalo	3.0	2.6	2.5
New England	Tennessee	6.8	7.2	6.6
New Orleans	Minnesota	6.0	5.6	6.1
Philadelphia	Seattle	4.7	3.9	3.6

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Houston	Buffalo	40
New England	Tennessee	41
New Orleans	Minnesota	48.5
Philadelphia	Seattle	47

Wildcard Playoff Schedule 

 

Day	Time	Network	Home	Visitors
Sat	4:35 PM	ABC *	Houston	Buffalo
Sat	8:15 PM	CBS	New England	Tennessee
Sun	1:05 PM	Fox	New Orleans	Minnesota
Sun	4:40 PM	NBC	Philadelphia	Seattle
* ABC game will also be simulcast on ESPN

 

 

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	105.8	106.4	105.8	106.0	19.5	12-4
Buffalo	102.0	103.0	103.0	102.7	16.5	10-6
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.4	94.6	94.9	20.5	7-9
Miami	91.6	92.0	92.0	91.9	28.5	5-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	112.0	112.3	113.2	112.5	25	14-2
Pittsburgh	98.6	99.0	99.2	98.9	19	8-8
Cleveland	96.6	96.6	96.4	96.5	24.5	6-10
Cincinnati	93.9	93.7	93.9	93.8	24	2-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.0	102.5	102.5	102.4	23.5	10-6
Tennessee	102.0	102.2	102.2	102.1	21.5	9-7
Indianapolis	98.0	98.7	98.0	98.2	24	7-9
Jacksonville	93.4	93.6	93.6	93.5	19	6-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.0	107.7	107.7	107.5	29.5	12-4
LA Chargers	100.4	100.0	99.3	99.9	22	5-11
Denver	99.2	99.6	99.5	99.4	18.5	7-9
Oakland	92.6	92.4	92.4	92.5	25	7-9
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.2	105.4	105.1	105.2	23	8-8
Philadelphia	102.8	101.8	101.7	102.1	23.5	9-7
N.Y. Giants	92.8	92.9	93.2	93.0	25.5	4-12
Washington	90.3	90.8	90.2	90.4	20.5	3-13
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.7	105.8	106.1	21.5	10-6
Green Bay	104.0	104.2	104.8	104.3	24	13-3
Chicago	101.1	98.9	98.8	99.6	17	8-8
Detroit	94.8	93.2	92.9	93.7	23.5	3-12-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	109.8	108.3	108.9	109.0	27	13-3
Tampa Bay	101.0	102.0	102.2	101.7	29	7-9
Atlanta	100.7	101.1	101.1	100.9	25.5	7-9
Carolina	91.9	91.7	91.8	91.8	26	5-11
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.3	108.0	108.2	107.8	26	13-3
LA Rams	104.4	103.5	103.8	103.9	26.5	9-7
Seattle	101.1	100.9	101.1	101.0	23.5	11-5
Arizona	96.2	96.4	97.1	96.6	24.5	5-10-1

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	13.8	13.6	14.0
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	8.3	8.6	9.4
Carolina	New Orleans	-14.7	-13.4	-13.7
Cincinnati	Cleveland	-4.1	-4.5	-4.3
Dallas	Washington	16.0	15.4	15.5
Detroit	Green Bay	-7.2	-8.7	-9.2
Houston	Tennessee	1.4	1.7	1.7
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-7.8	-8.5	-8.0
Kansas City	LA Chargers	9.2	10.2	10.9
Minnesota	Chicago	6.7	7.8	8.0
New England	Miami	21.7	22.0	21.6
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	-7.2	-5.7	-5.0
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	1.5	2.5	2.9
Denver	Oakland	7.1	7.6	7.3
LA Rams	Arizona	9.4	8.3	8.1
Seattle	San Francisco	-3.0	-3.9	-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	44
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	38
Carolina	New Orleans	53
Cincinnati	Cleveland	47.5
Dallas	Washington	41.5
Detroit	Green Bay	47.5
Houston	Tennessee	45
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	41
Kansas City	LA Chargers	51.5
Minnesota	Chicago	38.5
New England	Miami	48
N. Y. Giants	Philadelphia	49
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	55.5
Denver	Oakland	44.5
LA Rams	Arizona	51
Seattle	San Francisco	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.0	108.7	108.2	108.3	19.5	12-3
Buffalo	102.0	103.0	103.0	102.7	17	10-5
N. Y. Jets	94.7	95.4	94.6	94.9	21	6-9
Miami	89.4	89.7	89.6	89.6	28.5	4-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.7	111.9	112.7	112.1	25	13-2
Pittsburgh	98.9	99.4	99.7	99.3	19	8-7
Cleveland	97.8	97.9	97.8	97.8	24	6-9
Cincinnati	92.7	92.4	92.5	92.5	23.5	1-14
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.2	102.7	102.7	102.6	23.5	10-5
Tennessee	101.8	102.0	102.0	101.9	21.5	8-7
Indianapolis	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	23	7-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	107.0	107.7	107.7	107.5	29.5	11-4
LA Chargers	100.4	100.0	99.3	99.9	22	5-10
Denver	99.0	99.3	99.1	99.1	19	6-9
Oakland	92.8	92.7	92.8	92.8	25.5	7-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.2	104.3	103.9	104.1	22	7-8
Philadelphia	101.9	100.7	100.5	101.0	23.5	8-7
N.Y. Giants	93.7	94.0	94.4	94.0	25.5	4-11
Washington	91.3	91.9	91.4	91.5	19.5	3-12
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.8	105.7	105.8	106.1	21.5	10-5
Green Bay	103.8	103.8	104.2	103.9	24	12-3
Chicago	101.1	98.9	98.8	99.6	17	7-8
Detroit	95.0	93.6	93.5	94.1	23.5	3-11-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.7	107.2	107.7	107.9	27	12-3
Tampa Bay	101.1	102.3	102.6	102.0	29.5	7-8
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	6-9
Carolina	93.0	92.8	93.0	92.9	26	5-10
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.2	107.9	108.1	107.7	26	12-3
LA Rams	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0	26.5	8-7
Seattle	101.2	101.0	101.2	101.1	23.5	11-4
Arizona	96.1	96.3	96.9	96.4	24.5	5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Oakland
NFC Seeding
1	Green Bay
2	New Orleans
3	Seattle
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 21-23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tampa Bay	Houston	2.2	3.4	4.1
New England	Buffalo	9.2	8.9	8.4
San Francisco	LA Rams	5.9	7.7	7.7
Atlanta	Jacksonville	11.8	11.9	11.9
Tennessee	New Orleans	-4.0	-1.9	-2.4
Washington	N. Y. Giants	0.7	1.2	0.5
N. Y. Jets	Pittsburgh	-2.7	-2.7	-4.2
Miami	Cincinnati	-1.2	-0.8	-1.2
Indianapolis	Carolina	5.7	6.7	5.9
Cleveland	Baltimore	-10.8	-10.6	-11.5
LA Chargers	Oakland	12.7	12.7	12.1
Denver	Detroit	6.7	8.5	8.2
Seattle	Arizona	12.1	11.6	11.3
Philadelphia	Dallas	-0.6	-2.2	-2.3
Chicago	Kansas City	0.1	-2.9	-2.8
Minnesota	Green Bay	9.6	8.5	8.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Tampa Bay	Houston	54
New England	Buffalo	36.5
San Francisco	LA Rams	51.5
Atlanta	Jacksonville	44
Tennessee	New Orleans	46.5
Washington	N. Y. Giants	43
N. Y. Jets	Pittsburgh	41
Miami	Cincinnati	50
Indianapolis	Carolina	49
Cleveland	Baltimore	49
LA Chargers	Oakland	47.5
Denver	Detroit	42.5
Seattle	Arizona	49
Philadelphia	Dallas	47.5
Chicago	Kansas City	47.5
Minnesota	Green Bay	46.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.1	108.8	108.3	108.4	19.5	11-3
Buffalo	101.9	102.9	102.9	102.6	17	10-4
N. Y. Jets	94.2	94.8	93.8	94.3	21.5	5-9
Miami	89.2	89.4	89.2	89.3	27.5	3-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.6	111.7	112.5	112.0	25	12-2
Pittsburgh	99.4	100.0	100.5	99.9	19.5	8-6
Cleveland	97.9	98.1	98.0	98.0	24	6-8
Cincinnati	92.9	92.7	92.9	92.8	22.5	1-13
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	102.0	102.4	102.4	102.3	20.5	8-6
Houston	102.0	102.3	102.1	102.2	24	9-5
Indianapolis	97.9	98.7	98.1	98.2	23	6-8
Jacksonville	91.3	91.4	91.3	91.3	18	5-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	105.2	106.0	105.9	105.7	30	10-4
LA Chargers	102.0	101.7	101.1	101.6	22	5-9
Denver	98.9	99.2	98.9	99.0	19	5-9
Oakland	91.2	91.0	91.0	91.1	25.5	6-8
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	104.8	105.1	104.8	104.9	23	7-7
Philadelphia	101.3	99.9	99.6	100.2	24.5	7-7
N.Y. Giants	93.4	93.6	93.9	93.6	24.5	3-11
Washington	91.6	92.3	91.9	91.9	18.5	3-11
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	108.6	107.5	107.7	108.0	22	10-4
Green Bay	102.0	102.0	102.3	102.1	24.5	11-3
Chicago	102.9	100.6	100.6	101.4	17.5	7-7
Detroit	95.1	93.7	93.7	94.2	23.5	3-10-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	108.5	106.8	107.3	107.5	26	11-3
Tampa Bay	101.3	102.7	103.2	102.4	30	7-7
Atlanta	100.6	100.8	100.7	100.7	26	5-9
Carolina	95.2	95.0	95.2	95.1	26	5-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	107.3	108.1	108.4	107.9	25.5	11-3
LA Rams	104.4	103.4	103.7	103.8	26	8-6
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.2	103.1	24	11-3
Arizona	94.1	94.3	94.9	94.4	25	4-9-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Kansas City
4	Houston
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh

NFC Seeding
1	New Orleans
2	Seattle
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Houston

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over San Francisco

Seattle over Green Bay

Conference Championship

Baltimore over New England

Seattle over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Baltimore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	19.3	18.9	20.6
Detroit	Tampa Bay	1.2	-1.8	-2.0
Washington	Philadelphia	-6.6	-4.1	-4.0
Green Bay	Chicago	1.0	3.5	3.6
Cincinnati	New England	-12.2	-12.8	-11.9
Tennessee	Houston	4.0	4.3	4.7
Carolina	Seattle	-5.0	-5.0	-5.0
Kansas City	Denver	7.8	8.0	8.0
N. Y. Giants	Miami	5.7	5.5	5.8
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	5.3	5.7	5.2
Oakland	Jacksonville	4.1	4.0	4.3
Arizona	Cleveland	-3.9	-4.1	-3.6
San Francisco	Atlanta	13.7	14.5	15.3
Dallas	LA Rams	-1.5	-0.2	-1.2
LA Chargers	Minnesota	0.1	1.3	0.4
New Orleans	Indianapolis	11.2	8.3	9.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	45.5
Detroit	Tampa Bay	53.5
Washington	Philadelphia	42
Green Bay	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	New England	42
Tennessee	Houston	44.5
Carolina	Seattle	50
Kansas City	Denver	50
N. Y. Giants	Miami	52
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	37.5
Oakland	Jacksonville	43.5
Arizona	Cleveland	47
San Francisco	Atlanta	51.5
Dallas	LA Rams	47
LA Chargers	Minnesota	44
New Orleans	Indianapolis	50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	107.8	108.4	107.8	108.0	19.5	10-3
Buffalo	101.8	102.8	102.8	102.5	17.5	9-4
N. Y. Jets	94.5	95.1	94.1	94.6	21	5-8
Miami	89.7	90.0	89.9	89.9	27.5	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.3	111.4	112.2	111.7	24.5	11-2
Pittsburgh	99.5	100.1	100.6	100.0	20	8-5
Cleveland	99.2	99.5	99.5	99.4	23	6-7
Cincinnati	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	22.5	1-12
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	102.5	103.0	103.1	102.9	20.5	8-5
Houston	101.5	101.7	101.4	101.6	24	8-5
Indianapolis	99.1	100.1	99.6	99.6	23.5	6-7
Jacksonville	90.7	90.7	90.5	90.6	18	4-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.4	105.1	104.9	104.8	30.5	9-4
LA Chargers	104.1	104.0	103.4	103.8	22	5-8
Denver	99.7	100.1	99.9	99.9	19.5	5-8
Oakland	91.8	91.7	91.8	91.8	25.5	6-7
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	102.6	102.9	102.4	102.6	22	6-7
Philadelphia	101.0	99.4	99.0	99.8	24	6-7
N.Y. Giants	92.9	93.0	93.2	93.0	24.5	2-11
Washington	91.9	92.8	92.5	92.4	18	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.5	105.2	105.4	105.7	22	9-4
Green Bay	101.7	101.8	102.0	101.8	24.5	10-3
Chicago	103.2	100.8	100.9	101.6	18	7-6
Detroit	97.3	95.8	95.9	96.4	23.5	3-9-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.3	105.4	105.8	106.2	26.5	10-3
Tampa Bay	99.1	100.6	101.0	100.2	30	6-7
Atlanta	98.6	98.7	98.4	98.5	26	4-9
Carolina	95.2	95.0	95.2	95.1	26	5-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	109.3	110.2	110.7	110.1	25.5	11-2
LA Rams	106.6	105.6	106.1	106.1	25	8-5
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.2	103.1	24	10-3
Arizona	92.8	92.9	93.4	93.0	24	3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL Schedule Recommendation

The NFL has discussed contracting the number of games in the preseason, while possibly adding extra games to the regular season schedule and increasing the number of teams in the Playoffs.  Us PiRates here on the SS Buckaroo believe we can solve all the problems and make it a win-win for owners, players, and fans alike.  Here is our PiRate Principles for the NFL’s future.

1. Reduce the number of preseason games from 4 to 2

2. Make training camp 6 weeks long with preseason games during week 3 and week 4.  Then, teams can practice for another week after their second preseason game before making final cuts.

3. Expand Rosters to 60 players with 3 active quarterbacks in that group of 60

4. A practice or taxi squad of 7 players would be allowed.

5. Expand the regular season to 17 games, with the extra game played at neutral sites.  This would allow teams to play in London, Toronto, and Mexico City without losing home games.  Other incredible venues where there is no pro football team could be Lincoln, NE, San Antonio, Iowa City, IA, Louisville, KY, Birmingham, AL, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Ann Arbor, MI, Columbus, OH, South Bend, IN, basically any 80,000 seat plus venue.  The Falcons and Titans could probably fill up Legion Field in Birmingham.  The Bears and Colts could definitely fill up Notre Dame’s stadium.

6. This 17th game would be an inter-conference game.

7. Make the playoffs a full 16 teams with the 4 division winners hosting the next 4 teams with winning records.  This could still be played out in four games like the wildcard and two division winners must play in both conferences.

Look for updated NFL Ratings Tuesday morning, including a plethora of what if playoff situations.

Our PiRate Bowl Coverage will publish Saturday, December 14, after the Army-Navy game has concluded.

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 5-9, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Chicago	Dallas	2.6	-0.6	-0.2
Atlanta	Carolina	3.3	3.5	2.8
Buffalo	Baltimore	-6.3	-5.3	-6.2
Cleveland	Cincinnati	8.0	8.4	8.1
Green Bay	Washington	13.6	13.0	13.7
Houston	Denver	8.1	8.0	8.1
Minnesota	Detroit	11.5	11.5	11.6
New Orleans	San Francisco	1.4	-1.4	-1.7
N. Y. Jets	Miami	8.5	8.8	8.1
Tampa Bay	Indianapolis	2.6	3.6	4.4
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	-4.3	-3.9	-3.5
Arizona	Pittsburgh	-3.6	-3.7	-3.6
New England	Kansas City	9.0	9.1	8.9
Oakland	Tennessee	-4.5	-5.2	-4.7
LA Rams	Seattle	4.2	3.0	3.1
Philadelphia	N. Y. Giants	12.1	10.4	9.7

 

Totals

 

Home	Visitor	Total
Chicago	Dallas	38
Atlanta	Carolina	51
Buffalo	Baltimore	42
Cleveland	Cincinnati	45.5
Green Bay	Washington	42.5
Houston	Denver	41
Minnesota	Detroit	47.5
New Orleans	San Francisco	49
N. Y. Jets	Miami	48.5
Tampa Bay	Indianapolis	51.5
Jacksonville	LA Chargers	39.5
Arizona	Pittsburgh	44
New England	Kansas City	51.5
Oakland	Tennessee	44
LA Rams	Seattle	50.5
Philadelphia	N. Y. Giants	49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.9	109.6	109.1	109.2	20.5	10-2
Buffalo	101.8	102.9	102.8	102.5	17.5	9-3
N. Y. Jets	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1	21	4-8
Miami	89.5	89.7	89.5	89.6	27.5	3-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.1	111.1	112.0	111.4	24.5	10-2
Pittsburgh	99.5	100.0	100.4	99.9	20	7-5
Cleveland	99.2	99.5	99.5	99.4	23	5-7
Cincinnati	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	22.5	1-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	103.1	103.4	103.2	103.3	23	8-4
Tennessee	100.9	101.4	101.3	101.2	19.5	7-5
Indianapolis	99.3	100.1	99.6	99.7	22.5	6-6
Jacksonville	93.6	93.8	93.6	93.7	18.5	4-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	102.9	103.5	103.2	103.2	31	8-4
LA Chargers	101.0	100.7	100.1	100.6	21	4-8
Denver	98.1	98.4	98.1	98.2	18	4-8
Oakland	93.4	93.3	93.6	93.4	24.5	6-6
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	103.3	103.9	103.5	103.6	21	6-6
Philadelphia	102.0	100.4	100.0	100.8	24.5	5-7
N.Y. Giants	91.9	92.0	92.2	92.0	25	2-10
Washington	91.4	92.2	91.8	91.8	18	3-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.4	105.0	105.2	105.6	23	8-4
Green Bay	102.0	102.2	102.5	102.2	24.5	9-3
Chicago	103.0	100.3	100.3	101.2	17	6-6
Detroit	97.4	96.0	96.1	96.5	24.5	3-8-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	105.5	105.8	106.2	25	10-2
Tampa Bay	98.9	100.6	101.0	100.2	29	5-7
Atlanta	97.5	97.5	97.1	97.3	25.5	3-9
Carolina	96.6	96.5	96.8	96.6	25.5	5-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	109.0	109.9	110.5	109.8	24	10-2
LA Rams	105.5	104.3	104.7	104.8	25.5	7-5
Seattle	104.3	104.3	104.6	104.4	25	10-2
Arizona	93.0	93.2	93.8	93.3	24	3-8-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Houston
4	Kansas City
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh
NFC Seeding
1	Seattle
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	San Francisco
6	Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Dallas

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Houston over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championship

Houston over Buffalo

Seattle over New Orleans

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Houston

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 13: November 28-December 2, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Chicago	-2.8	-1.2	-0.9
Dallas	Buffalo	8.4	7.9	8.0
Atlanta	New Orleans	-7.4	-5.1	-5.8
Cincinnati	N.Y. Jets	-2.5	-3.5	-2.4
Indianapolis	Tennessee	4.8	5.2	5.1
Miami	Philadelphia	-14.2	-12.4	-12.3
N.Y. Giants	Green Bay	-5.2	-5.0	-5.0
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	2.6	2.5	2.8
Carolina	Washington	10.9	10.1	11.0
Jacksonville	Tampa Bay	0.7	-0.9	-1.2
Baltimore	San Francisco	6.3	5.4	6.1
Arizona	LA Rams	-5.5	-3.7	-3.3
Denver	LA Chargers	-0.1	0.3	0.6
Kansas City	Oakland	8.1	8.6	7.8
Houston	New England	-4.1	-4.7	-4.6
Seattle	Minnesota	-0.1	1.3	1.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Detroit	Chicago	41.5
Dallas	Buffalo	38.5
Atlanta	New Orleans	50.5
Cincinnati	N.Y. Jets	44.5
Indianapolis	Tennessee	41
Miami	Philadelphia	50
N.Y. Giants	Green Bay	50.5
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	44
Carolina	Washington	43.5
Jacksonville	Tampa Bay	48.5
Baltimore	San Francisco	49.5
Arizona	LA Rams	49.5
Denver	LA Chargers	39
Kansas City	Oakland	55.5
Houston	New England	43.5
Seattle	Minnesota	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.4	110.2	109.8	109.8	20.5	10-1
Buffalo	100.0	101.1	100.8	100.6	17.5	8-3
N. Y. Jets	96.5	97.4	96.5	96.8	21.5	4-7
Miami	87.4	87.6	87.3	87.4	26.5	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.3	111.3	112.4	111.7	25	9-2
Cleveland	99.7	100.1	100.2	100.0	23.5	5-6
Pittsburgh	99.3	99.7	100.0	99.6	20.5	6-5
Cincinnati	91.6	91.3	91.6	91.5	23	0-11
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.3	102.5	102.2	102.4	23	7-4
Indianapolis	101.0	101.9	101.5	101.5	22	6-5
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	99.4	99.4	19	6-5
Jacksonville	95.5	95.7	95.6	95.6	19	4-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	100.7	101.2	100.8	100.9	31	7-4
LA Chargers	101.1	100.9	100.3	100.7	21	4-7
Denver	98.0	98.2	97.9	98.0	18	3-8
Oakland	95.6	95.6	96.0	95.7	24.5	6-5
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.4	106.0	105.8	105.7	21	6-5
Philadelphia	104.1	102.5	102.2	102.9	23.5	5-6
N.Y. Giants	93.1	93.3	93.6	93.3	25.5	2-9
Washington	89.7	90.4	89.9	90.0	18	2-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.9	105.5	105.8	106.1	23	8-3
Chicago	102.9	100.0	99.9	100.9	17	5-6
Green Bay	100.8	100.9	101.1	100.9	25	8-3
Detroit	97.5	96.3	96.5	96.8	24.5	3-7-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	105.3	105.6	106.1	25	9-2
Tampa Bay	97.3	99.0	99.3	98.5	29.5	4-7
Carolina	98.0	98.0	98.4	98.1	25.5	5-6
Atlanta	97.5	97.7	97.3	97.5	25.5	3-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	108.5	109.4	109.8	109.2	24.5	10-1
Seattle	103.8	103.8	104.0	103.9	25	9-2
LA Rams	103.5	102.1	102.4	102.7	25.5	6-5
Arizona	95.0	95.4	96.1	95.5	24	3-7-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Houston
4	Kansas City
5	Buffalo
6	Pittsburgh
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	New Orleans
3	Green Bay
4	Dallas
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Minnesota over Green Bay

Seattle over Dallas

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

Houston over New England

San Francisco over Minnesota

Seattle over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

Super Bowl 54

Baltimore over San Francisco

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 12: November 21-25, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Indianapolis	4.5	3.9	3.9
Cleveland	Miami	15.1	15.1	15.5
Buffalo	Denver	2.5	3.4	3.2
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	-5.0	-5.6	-5.7
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	12.9	9.6	9.4
N.Y. Jets	Oakland	-1.0	-0.1	-1.8
New Orleans	Carolina	13.1	10.8	10.9
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	6.5	5.0	4.3
Washington	Detroit	-6.3	-4.3	-5.3
Tennessee	Jacksonville	4.0	4.1	3.5
New England	Dallas	7.1	7.5	7.5
San Francisco	Green Bay	5.4	6.2	6.2
Philadelphia	Seattle	5.5	3.9	3.4
LA Rams	Baltimore	1.4	0.1	-0.7

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Houston	Indianapolis	45
Cleveland	Miami	48.5
Buffalo	Denver	36
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	44
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	43.5
N.Y. Jets	Oakland	46.5
New Orleans	Carolina	48.5
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	55
Washington	Detroit	43.5
Tennessee	Jacksonville	36
New England	Dallas	43
San Francisco	Green Bay	49.5
Philadelphia	Seattle	50.5
LA Rams	Baltimore	50.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	109.6	110.5	110.2	110.1	21	9-1
Buffalo	98.9	100.0	99.6	99.5	17.5	7-3
N. Y. Jets	93.3	94.2	93.1	93.5	21.5	3-7
Miami	87.5	87.8	87.5	87.6	26	2-8
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	108.1	108.1	109.2	108.5	25	8-2
Cleveland	99.6	99.9	100.0	99.8	22.5	4-6
Pittsburgh	99.2	99.6	99.9	99.5	20.5	5-5
Cincinnati	91.7	91.4	91.7	91.6	23.5	0-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Houston	102.4	102.6	102.3	102.5	23	6-4
Indianapolis	100.9	101.8	101.4	101.4	22	6-4
Tennessee	98.0	98.3	97.9	98.1	17.5	5-5
Jacksonville	97.0	97.3	97.4	97.2	18.5	4-6
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	100.4	100.9	100.5	100.6	31	7-4
LA Chargers	100.8	100.6	100.0	100.4	21	4-7
Denver	99.4	99.6	99.4	99.5	18.5	3-7
Oakland	97.3	97.3	97.9	97.5	25	6-4
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	105.5	106.0	105.7	105.7	22	6-4
Philadelphia	105.2	103.6	103.3	104.0	24.5	5-5
N.Y. Giants	92.8	93.1	93.3	93.1	26	2-8
Washington	89.5	90.2	89.6	89.8	18	1-9
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.6	105.2	105.5	105.8	23	8-3
Green Bay	103.6	103.7	104.0	103.8	25	8-2
Chicago	103.2	100.2	100.2	101.2	17.5	4-6
Detroit	98.7	97.5	97.8	98.0	25.5	3-6-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.9	105.7	106.1	106.6	24	8-2
Atlanta	99.3	99.5	99.1	99.3	25.5	3-7
Carolina	97.8	97.9	98.2	98.0	24.5	5-5
Tampa Bay	95.8	97.5	97.8	97.0	29.5	3-7
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	106.0	106.9	107.2	106.7	24.5	9-1
LA Rams	106.6	105.2	105.5	105.8	25.5	6-4
Seattle	102.7	102.7	102.9	102.8	26	8-2
Arizona	94.7	95.1	95.8	95.2	24	3-7-1

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Baltimore
2	New England
3	Indianapolis
4	Oakland
5	Buffalo
6	Kansas City
NFC Seeding
1	San Francisco
2	Green Bay
3	New Orleans
4	Dallas
5	Seattle
6	Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Oakland over Buffalo

New Orleans over Minnesota

Seattle over Dallas

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Baltimore

Oakland over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

Conference Championship

Oakland over Kansas City

Green Bay over Seattle

Super Bowl 54

Oakland over Green Bay