The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 14, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 16-20, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Pittsburgh Tennessee 9.5 9.9 9.8 42
Chicago Detroit -4.5 -4.6 -4.4 45
N.Y. Giants Kansas City -7.5 -7.6 -8.3 42
Miami Tampa Bay -2.0 -1.8 -2.4 43
Green Bay Baltimore -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 41
Minnesota LA Rams 0.4 0.7 0.3 43
Houston Arizona 3.9 4.1 3.6 44
Cleveland Jacksonville -7.7 -7.0 -7.9 38
New Orleans Washington 12.7 11.9 13.5 57
LA Chargers Buffalo 9.1 8.6 8.9 44
Denver Cincinnati 1.6 0.6 1.6 39
Oakland New England -4.4 -4.2 -5.0 46
Dallas Philadelphia -0.9 -0.1 -2.2 49
Seattle Atlanta 2.1 2.5 1.7 48

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 107.2 107.4 107.2 107.2 23 7-2
Buffalo 96.4 96.6 96.6 96.5 22 5-4
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.7 95.4 19 4-6
Miami 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9 21 4-5
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.3 19 7-2
Baltimore 102.6 103.2 102.4 102.7 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-6
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 20 0-9
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.7 101.7 101.7 101.7 21 6-3
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 6-3
Houston 96.5 96.7 96.1 96.4 22 3-6
Indianapolis 93.7 93.8 93.4 93.6 23 3-7
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.5 104.9 104.8 104.7 23 6-3
LA Chargers 102.0 101.7 102.0 101.9 22 3-6
Oakland 99.3 99.7 98.7 99.2 23 4-5
Denver 96.5 96.3 96.3 96.4 22 3-6
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.6 106.2 108.8 107.5 25 8-1
Dallas 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5 24 5-4
Washington 98.8 98.9 98.8 98.8 27 4-5
N.Y. Giants 94.5 94.8 94.0 94.5 19 1-8
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.5 102.7 102.5 102.6 26 5-4
Minnesota 102.2 102.0 102.7 102.3 19 7-2
Green Bay 99.5 99.8 99.0 99.4 22 5-4
Chicago 95.5 95.7 95.6 95.6 19 3-6
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 108.6 107.7 109.3 108.5 30 7-2
Atlanta 103.9 103.8 104.1 103.9 28 5-4
Carolina 102.6 101.9 103.1 102.5 25 7-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 97.0 97.0 22 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 104.8 104.3 105.4 104.8 24 7-2
Seattle 103.1 103.3 102.7 103.0 20 6-3
Arizona 95.6 95.6 95.4 95.5 22 4-5
San Francisco 91.8 91.7 91.7 91.7 24 1-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Tennessee
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Carolina
6 Seattle
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Tennessee
New Orleans over Seattle
Carolina over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Carolina
New Orleans over LA Rams
 
Conference Championship
New England over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over New Orleans
 
Super Bowl 52
New England over Philadelphia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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November 7, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 9-13, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Seattle -4.3 -4.5 -4.1 42
Washington Minnesota 1.7 1.6 1.6 44
Chicago Green Bay -0.7 -1.4 0.0 41
Indianapolis Pittsburgh -9.8 -9.7 -10.3 42
Jacksonville LA Chargers 3.4 3.6 3.4 44
Tampa Bay N. Y. Jets 4.4 4.9 3.8 43
Tennessee Cincinnati 3.8 2.9 3.7 40
Buffalo New Orleans -2.2 -1.1 -2.7 52
Detroit Cleveland 14.3 13.9 14.4 42
LA Rams Houston 6.2 5.7 7.0 48
Atlanta Dallas -0.7 0.1 -0.9 54
San Francisco N. Y. Giants -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 41
Denver New England -4.1 -4.8 -3.9 43
Carolina Miami 9.8 9.2 10.6 43

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 105.7 105.1 105.3 22 6-2
Buffalo 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.0 22 5-3
N. Y. Jets 95.5 95.0 95.9 95.5 20 4-5
Miami 94.4 94.4 94.0 94.3 20 4-4
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.7 105.9 105.9 105.9 19 6-2
Baltimore 102.3 102.9 102.1 102.4 19 4-5
Cincinnati 97.9 98.7 97.6 98.1 17 3-5
Cleveland 91.0 91.7 90.9 91.2 18 0-8
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 22 5-3
Houston 99.2 99.3 98.9 99.1 24 3-5
Tennessee 98.7 98.6 98.4 98.6 23 5-3
Indianapolis 93.5 93.7 93.0 93.4 23 3-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.2 104.6 104.5 104.4 23 6-3
LA Chargers 101.9 101.6 101.9 101.8 22 3-5
Oakland 99.0 99.4 98.4 98.9 23 4-5
Denver 98.2 97.8 98.2 98.1 21 3-5
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 107.3 105.9 108.5 107.2 25 8-1
Dallas 105.9 105.2 106.0 105.7 26 5-3
Washington 99.7 99.6 99.9 99.7 26 4-4
N.Y. Giants 95.9 96.0 95.6 95.9 17 1-7
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 102.8 103.0 102.8 102.9 24 4-4
Minnesota 101.0 101.0 101.3 101.1 18 6-2
Green Bay 99.3 99.8 98.7 99.3 22 4-4
Chicago 96.0 96.0 96.2 96.1 19 3-5
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 105.1 104.2 105.8 105.0 30 6-2
Atlanta 102.2 102.3 102.2 102.2 28 4-4
Carolina 101.2 100.6 101.6 101.1 23 6-3
Tampa Bay 97.0 96.9 96.8 96.9 23 2-6
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 103.0 103.2 102.6 102.9 20 5-3
LA Rams 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 24 6-2
Arizona 95.7 95.7 95.5 95.6 22 4-4
San Francisco 90.4 90.5 90.1 90.3 24 0-9

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 Kansas City
4 Jacksonville
5 Buffalo
6 Tennessee
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 LA Rams
3 New Orleans
4 Minnesota
5 Seattle
6 Dallas
Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Tennessee
Jacksonville over Buffalo
New Orleans over Dallas
Seattle over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Seattle
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 31, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 9: November 2-6, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
N.Y. Jets Buffalo -5.9 -6.5 -6.1 41
Carolina Atlanta 1.2 0.6 1.8 52
New Orleans Tampa Bay 8.9 8.5 9.6 54
Philadelphia Denver 8.3 7.2 9.5 43
Jacksonville Cincinnati 4.4 4.1 4.4 39
Tennessee Baltimore -1.1 -1.7 -1.5 42
Houston Indianapolis 13.1 12.9 13.4 50
N.Y. Giants LA Rams 4.0 4.5 3.2 37
Seattle Washington 8.6 8.8 8.3 48
San Francisco Arizona -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 48
Dallas Kansas City 3.2 2.3 2.9 49
Miami Oakland -1.4 -2.0 -1.2 43
Green Bay Detroit 1.8 1.7 1.6 46

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 101.7 101.8 102.1 101.9 22
Miami 94.5 94.4 94.1 94.3 20
New England 105.1 105.5 104.9 105.1 22
N. Y. Jets 93.7 93.3 93.9 93.7 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 102.6 103.1 102.5 102.7 19
Cincinnati 99.1 99.7 99.0 99.3 17
Cleveland 90.8 91.5 90.7 91.0 18
Pittsburgh 105.5 105.7 105.7 105.7 19
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 101.6 101.6 101.4 101.5 27
Indianapolis 91.5 91.8 90.9 91.4 23
Jacksonville 100.6 100.8 100.4 100.6 22
Tennessee 98.4 98.4 98.0 98.3 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 100.1 99.7 100.1 100.0 19
Kansas City 104.9 105.3 105.3 105.2 23
LA Chargers 101.7 101.4 101.7 101.6 22
Oakland 98.9 99.4 98.3 98.9 23
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 105.2 104.5 105.2 105.0 26
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.5 99.1 99.4 15
Philadelphia 105.4 104.0 106.6 105.3 24
Washington 98.6 98.6 98.7 98.6 27
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 95.8 95.8 96.0 95.9 19
Detroit 101.4 101.8 101.2 101.5 24
Green Bay 100.7 101.0 100.3 100.7 22
Minnesota 100.8 100.8 101.1 100.9 18
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 102.3 102.4 102.3 102.3 28
Carolina 101.1 100.5 101.5 101.0 24
New Orleans 104.1 103.4 104.7 104.1 30
Tampa Bay 98.2 97.9 98.1 98.1 24
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 94.9 95.0 94.6 94.8 23
LA Rams 98.9 98.5 99.4 98.9 22
San Francisco 91.2 91.2 91.0 91.1 25
Seattle 104.3 104.4 104.0 104.2 21

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Jacksonville
5 Buffalo
6 Baltimore
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 New Orleans
3 Seattle
4 Minnesota
5 LA Rams
6 Carolina
Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Jacksonville over Buffalo
Carolina over Seattle
LA Rams over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Jacksonville
New England over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Carolina
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Kansas City

October 24, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 8: October 25-29, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Baltimore Miami 5.5 6.1 5.7 39
Cleveland (London) Minnesota -9.2 -9.0 -9.2 35
New Orleans Chicago 11.6 10.9 12.2 50
N. Y. Jets Atlanta -6.4 -6.9 -6.1 47
Tampa Bay Carolina 2.7 2.6 2.5 50
Philadelphia San Francisco 16.9 15.9 17.9 49
Buffalo Oakland 3.3 3.0 4.2 45
Cincinnati Indianapolis 11.4 11.4 12.0 39
New England LA Chargers 6.7 7.5 6.5 45
Seattle Houston 6.3 5.9 6.5 44
Washington Dallas -1.1 -0.8 -0.9 53
Detroit Philadelphia -0.4 1.4 -1.5 49
Kansas City Denver 7.7 8.3 7.8 40

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.1 105.6 104.9 105.2 22 5-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 100.9 100.7 22 4-2-0
Miami 97.1 97.0 96.7 96.9 20 4-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 19 3-4-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.4 20 5-2-0
Baltimore 100.1 100.6 100.0 100.2 19 3-4-0
Cincinnati 99.7 100.2 99.7 99.9 16 2-4-0
Cleveland 91.2 91.7 91.3 91.4 18 0-7-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.3 101.5 101.0 101.3 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 100.4 100.6 100.2 100.4 22 4-3-0
Tennessee 98.2 98.2 97.8 98.1 23 4-3-0
Indianapolis 90.9 91.3 90.2 90.8 23 2-5-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 104.8 105.2 105.1 105.0 22 5-2-0
LA Chargers 101.9 101.5 101.9 101.8 23 3-4-0
Oakland 100.7 101.2 100.1 100.7 23 3-4-0
Denver 100.2 99.8 100.3 100.1 18 3-3-0
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 105.0 103.8 106.0 104.9 24 6-1-0
Dallas 104.0 103.4 103.9 103.8 26 3-3-0
Washington 99.8 99.7 100.0 99.8 27 3-3-0
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.3 98.9 99.2 15 1-6-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Detroit 101.6 102.1 101.5 101.8 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.4 100.6 100.5 100.5 17 5-2-0
Green Bay 100.5 100.8 100.1 100.5 22 4-3-0
Chicago 95.6 95.7 95.7 95.7 19 3-4-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 104.3 103.5 105.0 104.3 31 4-2-0
Atlanta 102.5 102.6 102.5 102.5 28 3-3-0
Carolina 99.9 99.5 100.1 99.8 25 4-3-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.7 99.5 25 2-4-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 104.6 104.5 104.4 104.5 19 4-2-0
LA Rams 98.7 98.3 99.2 98.7 22 5-2-0
Arizona 94.7 94.8 94.4 94.6 23 3-4-0
San Francisco 91.6 91.4 91.6 91.5 25 0-7-0

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh  
2 New England  
3 Kansas City  
4 Houston  
5 Buffalo  
6 Miami  
       
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia  
2 LA Rams  
3 New Orleans  
4 Minnesota  
5 Seattle  
6 Carolina  
       
Wildcard Round
Miami over Kansas City
Houston over Buffalo
New Orleans over Carolina
Minnesota over Seattle
 
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
New England over Houston
Philadelphia over Minnesota
LA Rams over New Orleans
 
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over LA Rams
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

The big news in the NFL continues to hover around the fans boycotting the games, be it in person or on TV.  The protests are just one of multiple reasons for this, but the result is that the NFL has taken a huge financial hit, and the networks have been forced to award free advertising to sponsors in which they could not deliver to them certain minimum ratings.

We at the PiRate Ratings have never published a guest’s email, but because said guest gave us his permission, and because this particular guest is a verified football fanatic, this email, if ever read by NFL officials, should have them quaking in their boots.

We have slightly edited the email, only to remove proper names that could identify certain people.

The email follows in blue:

Hello PiRate Captain and Lasses.
Some of you know me. I went to high school and college with [PiRate Lass Name Deleted]. I have owned a personal seat license and season tickets to [Team deleted] since they have existed in their current city of residence. Until this season, I missed only two home games between 1998 and 2016, and I have seen them on the road eight times.
I took my vacation days at work to go on road trips, and to go to the NFL Draft multiple times. I paid over Two Grand to get a couple of Super Bowl Tickets to see [Teams deleted]. I foolishly purchased every new jersey every time the [Team deleted] .

As [PiRate Lass Name Deleted] probably knows, I have always opposed both the Democrats and Republicans. I worked for the Perot campaign in 1992, and I supported Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader at different times. I saw my managerial position with [Company Deleted] leave when the company moved overseas to [Country Deleted] to receive cheap foreign labor.

I did not support President Trump when he ran in the primaries, namely because I am not registered to vote in my state’s primary, as I am independent. I thought he was a joke running for a publicity stunt so that he could return to TV with a bigger audience.
However, once he was elected, and I began witnessing the incredibly negative bias, it became obvious that the elite in our media were looking out only for their own financial gain and their retaining of power as the fifth estate.

When the NFL protesting of the flag and national anthem began, I didn’t really think much of it. But then, when I began reading blogs of people I respect and hearing my local radio host talking about the incorrect information being put out, followed by evidence that totally contradicted what the elite mainstream media put out, I did the following things.

1. I cut the cord in my house. We dropped our cable television service and turned in the equipment to [Company deleted].

2. Rather than sell or give away the tickets to the remaining [Team deleted] games, I tore them up and threw them in the garbage. I additionally informed the [Team Deleted] that I would not renew my tickets next year and forfeit my PSL. They did nothing, because until I fail to renew my tickets, the PSL stays in place. I can say with 100% certainty that I will not renew next year.

3. I donated all my [Team Deleted] apparel to the Goodwill drop-off near where I live.

4. I planned with my wife alternate activities for Sundays.

5. We ultimately stopped watching all regular network TV, and with our regular antenna, we now only watch ME TV, Antenna TV, Cozi, Comet, Buzzr, and Get TV. Most of what we watch is in black and white and was produced before 1965.

Even if the NFL bends over backward to make things right again, they have lost me as a patron. I never realized how much better a Sunday can be when I didn’t sit on a couch from 11 AM until 11 PM watching NFL Pre-game shows and three games. First of all, the games had become quite boring. There is no imagination. The [Team Deleted] seems to have 4 basic plays–run the ball between the tackles on a dive, throw short, throw medium-short, and throw medium.
It’s not like the 1960’s AFL when you had the most fun football ever. It isn’t even like the 1990’s when you had some gunslingers, some finesse running, and multiple different types of offenses and defenses.
What have I been doing this year on Sundays rather than sit on a couch with my lunch spread and casual supper? On most weeks, I have discovered the joy of hiking on trails in wooded areas, either with my wife or with my wife and a group of new friends I found through the Meetup Group we discovered online. We even joined a local hiking club that goes on out of town hikes and has monthly meetings at one of our local parks.
On one weekend, we visited the botanical garden we had never been to, even though it is just 2 miles from our home. We loved it so much, we purchased a membership. We have also been to the zoo twice, and like the garden, we just purchased a membership there as well.

On four Sunday nights, we have joined friends for group dinners, and we talked about almost anything but football. We came to a group conclusion that sums up our new paradigm shift: It is much more entertaining and enriching to be a participant in something than to be part of the audience while others do something.

Last weekend, I didn’t even watch college football. The weather was just perfect to take a canoe trip on the river, and we joined friends canoeing 14 miles down the [River Deleted]. It took all day, and we stopped a few times, enjoying a picnic lunch at one of the pullout spots. We arrived at the end point just as the sun was setting behind the hills, and then we stopped at a family-owned restaurant off the beaten path for some of the finest comfort food I have ever eaten that wasn’t prepared by my wife, mother, or mother-in-law.

I don’t know how many others have done the same as me, but according to [Radio Host Name Deleted], the NFL Stadiums look almost half-empty these days. The TV ratings are so down that the networks are having to award free ads to some of the sponsors.
I think the actual number one change that has come this year is that most of the educated nation now realizes that our elitist media is a complete joke not to be trusted as a legitimate news source. Once you break free from their propaganda, you realize so many truths that you didn’t know before.

I am sure that my life has been enhanced. I want to thank those football players for protesting and driving me away from watching them play at the expense of my having real recreational fun. I have lost 12 pounds since Labor Day, and I feel really healthy for the first time in 20 years. Best of all, my Mondays are no longer the terrible return to the working world like they once were. I am alive, fresh, peppy, and ready to do my work on Mondays, because I have had my fill of exercise and fresh air for 48 hours. I have new friends, and I have a happier outlook.
I hope this has not bored you. I also hope that you and all the PiRates will consider joining me in my newfound experiences and get out and enjoy nature. A couple of deep breaths atop a mountain overlooking a lake and valley is worth more than 50-yard line seats at every Super Bowl ever played or to be played.

Thank You
[Name Deleted & City Deleted]

 

 

 

October 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7: October 18-22, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Oakland Kansas City -1.6 -1.2 -2.4 42
Cleveland Tennessee -4.3 -3.9 -3.8 44
Indianapolis Jacksonville -2.2 -2.0 -2.7 49
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 7.2 7.0 7.0 36
Minnesota Baltimore 2.7 2.5 2.6 36
Miami N. Y. Jets 6.7 7.0 6.1 36
Buffalo Tampa Bay 3.9 4.5 4.4 45
Chicago Carolina -3.3 -2.6 -3.9 47
Green Bay New Orleans 2.3 3.6 1.7 56
LA Rams (London) Arizona -1.7 -2.1 -1.2 47
San Franciso Dallas -6.5 -6.4 -6.2 51
N. Y. Giants Seattle 1.9 1.6 2.1 34
LA Chargers Denver -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 43
New England Atlanta 3.9 4.6 3.6 53
Philadelphia Washington 6.7 5.9 7.4 49

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.3 104.9 104.0 104.4 23 4-2-0
Buffalo 100.5 100.6 101.0 100.7 21 3-2-0
Miami 97.3 97.2 96.9 97.1 18 3-2-0
N. Y. Jets 93.6 93.2 93.8 93.6 18 3-3-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 104.8 105.0 104.8 104.9 20 4-2-0
Baltimore 100.4 100.8 100.4 100.5 19 3-3-0
Cincinnati 100.1 100.5 100.2 100.3 16 2-3-0
Cleveland 91.1 91.6 91.2 91.3 19 0-6-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.9 101.1 100.6 100.9 25 3-3-0
Jacksonville 98.4 98.6 98.2 98.4 24 3-3-0
Tennessee 98.4 98.4 98.0 98.3 25 3-3-0
Indianapolis 93.2 93.6 92.5 93.1 25 2-4-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 105.0 105.3 105.3 105.2 21 5-1-0
Denver 102.0 101.6 102.1 101.9 19 3-2-0
Oakland 100.5 101.1 99.9 100.5 21 2-4-0
LA Chargers 99.6 99.2 99.6 99.5 24 2-4-0
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 104.8 103.7 105.7 104.7 23 5-1-0
Dallas 102.3 101.8 102.1 102.1 26 2-3-0
N.Y. Giants 101.2 101.1 101.1 101.2 15 1-5-0
Washington 100.0 99.8 100.3 100.0 26 3-2-0
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Green Bay 102.3 102.7 102.1 102.4 25 4-2-0
Detroit 101.2 101.7 101.1 101.4 25 3-3-0
Minnesota 100.0 100.3 100.0 100.1 17 4-2-0
Chicago 94.7 95.0 94.6 94.8 21 2-4-0
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Atlanta 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.3 30 3-2-0
New Orleans 103.0 102.1 103.5 102.9 31 3-2-0
Carolina 101.1 100.5 101.5 101.0 26 4-2-0
Tampa Bay 99.6 99.1 99.6 99.4 24 2-3-0
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Seattle 102.9 103.0 102.5 102.8 19 3-2-0
Arizona 97.5 97.5 97.3 97.4 25 3-3-0
LA Rams 95.7 95.4 96.1 95.7 22 4-2-0
San Francisco 93.3 93.0 93.4 93.2 25 0-6-0

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Denver
6 Miami
   
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Carolina
3 Los Angeles
4 Minnesota
5 Atlanta
6 Washington
Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Houston over Denver
Los Angeles over Washington
Atlanta over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
Philadelphia over Atlanta
Los Angeles over Carolina
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Los Angeles
 
Super Bowl 52
Philadelphia over Kansas City

 

 

October 10, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 6: October 11-15, 2017

This Week’s NFL PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Carolina Philadelphia 0.2 0.5 -0.3 49
Houston Cleveland 12.4 12.4 11.8 43
N. Y. Jets New England -8.6 -9.7 -8.2 41
Atlanta Miami 10.9 10.8 11.7 49
New Orleans Detroit 2.4 0.8 2.6 54
Minnesota Green Bay -2.1 -2.3 -2.0 45
Baltimore Chicago 11.5 11.2 11.9 38
Washington San Francisco 11.2 11.1 11.6 51
Jacksonville LA Rams 10.2 10.4 10.1 46
Arizona Tampa Bay -0.3 0.6 -1.0 46
Kansas City Pittsburgh 5.7 5.4 6.4 43
Oakland LA Chargers 3.7 4.6 3.1 48
Denver N. Y. Giants 7.8 6.9 8.6 34
Tennessee Indianapolis 7.0 6.7 6.9 49

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 100.3 100.4 100.8 100.5 21
Miami 96.5 96.5 95.9 96.3 18
New England 104.7 105.3 104.4 104.8 23
N. Y. Jets 93.5 93.1 93.7 93.5 18
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 101.8 102.0 102.0 101.9 18
Cincinnati 99.9 100.3 100.0 100.1 16
Cleveland 91.3 91.7 91.5 91.5 19
Pittsburgh 103.4 103.8 103.2 103.5 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 100.7 101.0 100.3 100.7 24
Indianapolis 93.6 93.9 93.0 93.5 24
Jacksonville 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2 24
Tennessee 98.0 98.1 97.5 97.9 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 104.0 103.3 104.4 103.9 19
Kansas City 106.1 106.2 106.6 106.3 22
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.2 99.1 25
Oakland 100.9 101.5 100.3 100.9 23
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.1 101.6 101.9 101.9 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.8 99.2 15
Philadelphia 104.2 103.2 105.1 104.2 23
Washington 100.5 100.2 100.9 100.5 26
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 93.3 93.8 93.0 93.4 20
Detroit 102.4 103.0 102.5 102.7 24
Green Bay 103.9 104.3 103.7 104.0 28
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 17
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.7 104.5 31
Carolina 101.4 100.7 101.8 101.3 26
New Orleans 101.8 100.8 102.1 101.6 30
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.5 100.5 100.1 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 96.9 97.1 96.4 96.8 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.8 92.6 92.8 92.7 25
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 19

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Jacksonville
4 Cincinnati
5 Denver
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 Philadelphia
2 Green Bay
3 Atlanta
4 Seattle
5 Carolina
6 Detroit
Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Jacksonville
Denver over Cincinnati
Atlanta over Detroit
Seattle over Carolina
 
Divisional Round
Kansas City over Baltimore
Denver over New England
Philadelphia over Seattle
Atlanta over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over Denver
Philadelphia over Atlanta
 
Super Bowl 52
Kansas City over Philadelphia

 

October 5, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 5-9, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:02 pm

Finally, the PiRates had a week to celebrate.  Playing strictly college games, it was quite a profitable week, albeit in imaginary currency.

Three of our five selections won, returning us $718 on our $500 invested for an ROI of 44%  The weekly success almost squared us for the season, as we are now just $83 down on $1,700 invested.  We are one additional successful week from possibly going from red to black figures for the season.

We have selected four parlays this week, all consisting of three-games apiece.  We will be experimenting with additional options this week to test a theory put forth by a mathematics department head of a local university, and if this theory shows some merit, we will discuss it at length in the near future.  For now, we will continue posting only money line parlays that give us better than +120 odds.

Every year, we look to see which games tend to give us the most success, and it is uncanny that two leagues tend to lead the way.  Would you ever guess that the Sun Belt Conference and Mid-American Conference have given us more winners than any of the Power 5 leagues?  Is it because these two leagues are more predictable, or is it because maybe the books do not always have the best gauge on these two conferences, and the numbers produce more favorable odds?  Unfortunately, we do not have enough data saved to give us a factual answer.  However, the percentages that we have saved tell us that we have a statistically important advantage when playing games among the MAC and SBC, so these two leagues will remain in the PiRate diet.

We will preface our picks for this week with the mild warning that we were not in 100% agreement on any of the picks this week, while we were solidly behind the three winning plays last week.  In actuality, we were not in 100% agreement on any potential 3-team parlay that produced greater than +120 odds.  The only parlay we all agreed on involved SIX games, at +205 odds.  Six sure things are seldom 100% sure.  It is most likely that one of the six could be upset, and our leader actually believes one of the six might be a great sides pick at +11 (off the record, he likes New Mexico State +11 vs. Appalachian State).

Here are our four parlays for the week.

#1@ +145  
Must Win Must Lose
Florida LSU
TCU West Virginia
Notre Dame North Carolina

 

#2@ +138  
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Pittsburgh
Michigan Michigan St.
Marshall Charlotte

 

#3@ +176  
Must Win Must Lose
Miami Florida St.
UTSA Southern Miss
Navy Air Force

 

#4@ +130  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Ball St.
Idaho UL-Lafayette
Ohio U Central Mich.

 

Note–Once again, we are not issuing any NFL selections for the obvious reasons and the not-so-obvious reason that our NFL ratings have taken a 50%+ drop in readership.  This speaks loudly, and I hope the NFL brass are paying attention at the mass media with similar drops in patronage.

It is our editorial opinion that the NFL needs to instate a rule outlawing all publicly political opinions and statements during their games, just like most other retail establishments.  When you or we go to the grocery store to buy food, or go to your local insurance agent to renew your policies, none of us would expect to be issued any political litmus tests from either side of an issue, and we would quickly look elsewhere for our groceries or insurance if we did have to hear the employees and management deliver one-sided editorials, whether it was our identical belief or opposing belief. 

The NFL will only continue to lose patronage if they allow politicization in any way, on any side.  Football is just one of many avenues of entertainment.  The NFL has fallen behind trail hiking, reading good books, going shopping with our loved ones, visiting friends, and doing inventory (ugh) in the households of the Pirates.  The TVs have remained silent on Sundays and Monday nights.  Worse for the NFL, we all have discovered a much more enjoyable end to our weekends by not watching the games, something that may become addictive long after the impasse has been retired.  It takes a lot to win customers back after they have made the decision to leave.  Many companies never succeed in returning to what they once were once they experienced a large migration away from their establishment.

October 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: October 4-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:48 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tampa Bay New England -1.1 -2.5 -0.3 47
N. Y. Giants LA Chargers 3.6 4.1 3.3 40
Cincinnati Buffalo 2.5 2.7 1.9 37
Cleveland N. Y. Jets 1.7 2.4 1.8 40
Pittsburgh Jacksonville 11.6 11.5 11.7 45
Miami Tennessee 1.1 1.0 1.1 44
Indianapolis San Francisco 4.4 5.0 3.9 51
Philadelphia Arizona 6.5 5.1 7.7 46
Detroit Carolina 5.0 6.3 4.9 50
LA Rams Seattle -7.2 -7.5 -6.7 42
Oakland Baltimore 6.8 7.0 6.4 41
Dallas Green Bay 1.8 0.7 2.0 51
Houston Kansas City -1.7 -1.3 -2.5 42
Chicago Minnesota -3.9 -3.8 -4.4 37

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 104.5 105.2 104.1 104.6 24
Buffalo 100.4 100.5 101.0 100.6 21
Miami 96.3 96.3 95.7 96.1 19
N. Y. Jets 93.2 92.8 93.3 93.1 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 21
Cincinnati 99.8 100.2 99.8 100.0 16
Baltimore 99.7 100.0 99.7 99.8 18
Cleveland 91.9 92.3 92.2 92.1 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 101.1 101.4 100.7 101.1 21
Tennessee 98.2 98.3 97.7 98.1 25
Jacksonville 97.7 97.9 97.5 97.7 24
Indianapolis 93.7 94.0 93.1 93.6 26
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.7 105.8 106.2 105.9 21
Denver 103.8 103.1 104.2 103.7 19
Oakland 103.5 104.0 103.1 103.5 23
LA Chargers 99.2 98.8 99.1 99.0 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 102.4 101.8 102.3 102.2 25
Philadelphia 101.9 100.8 102.7 101.8 23
Washington 100.3 100.0 100.7 100.3 26
N.Y. Giants 99.2 99.4 98.9 99.2 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.6 104.1 103.3 103.7 26
Detroit 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 24
Minnesota 99.7 100.0 99.8 99.8 17
Chicago 93.3 93.8 92.9 93.3 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 104.2 104.1 104.5 104.3 31
New Orleans 101.6 100.6 101.9 101.4 30
Carolina 100.9 100.2 101.2 100.8 26
Tampa Bay 100.4 99.6 100.8 100.3 23
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 102.7 102.8 102.3 102.6 20
Arizona 98.9 99.2 98.5 98.9 23
LA Rams 93.4 93.3 93.6 93.4 22
San Francisco 92.7 92.5 92.7 92.6 25

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs

AFC

  1. Kansas City
  2. Pittsburgh
  3. New England
  4. Houston
  5. Denver
  6. Buffalo

NFC

  1. Atlanta
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Green Bay
  4. Seattle
  5. Carolina
  6. Los Angeles

Wildcard Round

New England over Buffalo

Houston over Denver

Green Bay over Los Angeles

Carolina over Seattle

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Houston

Pittsburgh over New England

Carolina over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Green Bay

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Philadelphia

September 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 4: September 28-October 2, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:20 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Green Bay Chicago 10.8 11.4 10.6 46
Miami (London) New Orleans -3.0 -1.8 -3.6 52
New England Carolina 9.5 10.8 9.1 49
Dallas LA Rams 15.7 14.6 15.8 44
Minnesota Detroit 1.1 0.4 1.4 43
Houston Tennessee -0.1 0.1 -0.1 41
N. Y. Jets Jacksonville -2.5 -3.2 -2.5 43
Cleveland Cincinnati -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 37
Baltimore Pittsburgh -1.5 -1.7 -0.8 41
Atlanta Buffalo 10.3 9.5 10.4 53
Tampa Bay N. Y. Giants 3.7 2.8 4.5 38
LA Chargers Philadelphia 1.8 2.5 0.9 48
Arizona San Francisco 10.1 10.6 10.0 49
Denver Oakland 2.2 1.1 2.7 46
Seattle Indianapolis 9.1 8.9 8.7 44
Kansas City Washington 8.1 8.5 8.2 47

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 105.7 106.4 105.5 105.8 24
Buffalo 98.6 99.0 99.0 98.9 22
Miami 97.6 97.7 97.1 97.5 21
N. Y. Jets 92.9 92.5 92.9 92.8 19
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 104.6 105.0 104.3 104.7 22
Baltimore 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.3 19
Cincinnati 97.6 98.0 97.6 97.8 16
Cleveland 94.4 94.8 94.7 94.6 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 101.2 101.3 100.7 101.1 25
Houston 98.1 98.4 97.7 98.1 16
Jacksonville 98.0 98.2 97.9 98.0 24
Indianapolis 95.4 95.7 95.1 95.4 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 105.5 105.6 106.0 105.7 21
Oakland 104.3 104.8 104.0 104.4 26
Denver 103.5 102.8 103.8 103.4 20
LA Chargers 99.5 99.1 99.4 99.3 25
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 104.2 103.3 104.3 104.0 24
Philadelphia 101.2 100.1 102.0 101.1 23
Washington 100.4 100.1 100.8 100.4 26
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 15
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Detroit 102.4 103.2 102.4 102.7 24
Green Bay 102.6 103.3 102.1 102.7 26
Minnesota 100.5 100.6 100.8 100.6 19
Chicago 94.2 94.5 94.0 94.2 20
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.9 105.5 106.4 105.9 31
New Orleans 100.6 99.5 100.8 100.3 31
Tampa Bay 100.2 99.4 100.6 100.1 23
Carolina 99.2 98.5 99.3 99.0 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 101.0 101.1 100.3 100.8 19
Arizona 99.4 99.6 99.1 99.4 24
San Francisco 92.2 92.1 92.1 92.1 25
LA Rams 91.5 91.7 91.5 91.6 20

Our Official Statement on the Current Situation in the NFL

Neither side is right and neither side is wrong.  There is too much black and white in this world, and this is no different.  Life should not be an either or situation on everything that exists, but the human race has not evolved enough to get past this fact.

The problem is that neither side understands tactfulness, maturity, diplomacy, and statesmanship.  Maybe, consultants have advised the two factions to reduce the problem to childlike fighting, and that is sad if the populace can only understand issues when reduced to a childlike mentality.

Nevertheless, the problem is that an entertaining three-hour escape from the stress of the real world has now been altered into just another stressful afternoon.  The 6 members of the PiRate Ratings have decided that the situation has eliminated the needed escape that  NFL Football provided us–up to 56 years for our oldest contributor.  Thus, on Sunday, none of us attended or viewed a game.  Tickets went unused at Lambeau Field, LP Field, and U.S. Bank Stadium.  A fouth stadium, Firstenergy in Cleveland, will join this list this week.  As best as we can estimate, this is the first time since sometime in 1963 that at least once of us has failed to watch an NFL game.

We have received more emails than we can respond to this week, and we will refrain from giving out the email address for now, because it will take a couple weeks to reply to all of them.  But, it is obvious that you our reader are more than likely to stop watching and attending than to watch or attend.  Actually, we have yet to receive an email in support of the players, and we can only surmise that some of you that did not send us a message are still watching.

Feel free to comment in the comment section of this entry.  If you refrain from profanity and comment in a civil and intelligent manner, your comment will be accepted.  We will censor any profanity or below-the-belt comments.  We are a scientific/mathematic website more interested in the numbers than the individuals on either side of this issue.

For those that have not seen this unaltered, here are the exact words of the 1st Amendment of the Bill of Rights.

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Why The Ratings Drop Does Matter

We have heard  many apologists proclaim that the drastic TV ratings drop had little or nothing to do with the current situation between the two opposing sides.  We have seen excuses such as “The Emmy Awards aired opposite SNF,” and “It was Oprah’s Debut on 60 Minutes.”

There is one telltale sign that tends to make us believe these apologies are off the mark.  While the ratings for the football games have dropped off the table, the ratings for the pre-game shows are actually up.  People are tuning in to the pre-game in greater numbers and then switching channels or turning the TV off before the kickoff.  This is a definite sign that the league has alienated a large number of fans, or maybe we should say former fans.  Turning the channel or turning off the TV in the middle of a time slot is considered a bigger deal than doing so at the top or bottom of the hour when programs change.  As a former journalist in radio and television, our founder understands the implications in local news when the ratings change during the weather segment or sports segment.

 

September 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 3: September 21-25, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Score
San Francisco LA Rams 3.8 3.3 3.9 41
Jacksonville (London) Baltimore -7.9 -7.8 -8.2 41
Indianapolis Cleveland 3.0 2.9 2.3 46
Chicago Pittsburgh -10.5 -10.3 -10.8 43
N. Y. Jets Miami -5.4 -6.1 -5.3 44
Buffalo Denver -4.1 -2.4 -4.4 41
New England Houston 12.0 12.1 12.4 38
Carolina New Orleans 6.0 6.0 6.4 58
Minnesota Tampa Bay -0.5 0.7 -1.1 41
Detroit Atlanta -0.7 0.5 -1.1 56
Philadelphia N. Y. Giants 4.0 2.5 5.3 36
Tennessee Seattle 2.9 2.8 3.0 43
LA Chargers Kansas City -3.5 -4.0 -3.8 48
Green Bay Cincinnati 9.1 9.5 8.7 44
Washington Oakland -2.5 -3.6 -1.9 53
Arizona Dallas -0.2 1.1 -0.2 48

 

The AFC West Could Have The Three Best Teams In The NFL
How could it be that the three best teams in the NFL might all play in the same division? Is it possible that Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver are the top three teams? You’d get a good argument from fans in New England, Atlanta, and maybe Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but through two weeks of the season, it is hard to say that any of the other teams outside of the AFC West are better than the top three.

Oakland owns a win at Tennessee, the team picked to win the AFC South by a majority of prognosticators. Kansas City won at New England, a team that many thought could go 16-0 this year. Denver blew Dallas off the field Sunday. All three teams are 2-0, and it is possible that all three teams will win double digit games this year.

Guess what? This isn’t the first time this division has been so strong. Let’s return to the golden age of yesteryear. Set the time travel clock back to 1967 and 1968. The old American Football League’s West Division had the same four teams as today’s AFC West–Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders (The Cincinnati Bengals would join in 1968).
Oakland had the incredible mad bomber Daryle Lamonica throwing lasers to Warren Wells and Fred Biletnikoff with bruising running backs Hewritt Dixon, Clem Daniels, and Pete Banaszak, and the Raiders’ offense was maybe one of the best of all time during that era. The Silver and Black attack topped 32 points per game in consecutive seasons. The Raider defense featured stars in all three units. Tom Keating and the inimitable Ben Davidson kept the FTD Florist company in business, as relatives of injured NFL quarterbacks frequently ordered get-well bouquets for their injured heroes. Dan Conners was one of the top middle linebackers in the game in an era where this position usually was the most important of all. The secondary was tough with stars Willie Brown and Kent McCloughan at the corners.

Kansas City played a more ball-controlled offense than Oakland, but their defense was just as dominating as the Raiders, and it made for the best rivalry in the history of organized football. The Chiefs offense was led by Len Dawson, the most accurate passer in the AFL. Dawson did not throw as many deep balls, but he had the arm and accuracy. With incredible run support from Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes, the Chiefs ran the ball more than the rest of the AFL during this time, and it allowed their great defense to stay on the sidelines for longer stretches. When KC’s defense took the field, it was a red storm. Tackle Buck Buchanan was the biggest defender in the league. Teams usually ran away from him, which funneled the ball carrier toward another star, end Jerry Mays.

The linebacker corps may have been the best trio of all time. Willie Lanier was the cream of the crop of middle linebackers. Bobby Bell and Jim Lynch manned the outside spots, and this group was responsible for stopping opponents from converting first downs on third and short. On the back line, Johnny Robinson was one of the top two or three safeties in the 10-year history of the AFL, if not the best. Emmitt Thomas was the equal of Oakland’s Brown on the outside.

San Diego had been the dominant AFL West team during the first half of the decade. The Chargers won the AFL West Five of the first six years. Beginning with the Chiefs-Raiders dominance in 1966 and carrying through the 1970’s, the Chargers continued to be a very good team, just not quite up to the standards of the big two. San Diego was known to get off to great starts and then fade in the last four weeks of the season. In 1966, San Diego was just a half-game behind Kansas City after eight weeks, but they finished 7-6-1 losing four of their last six. In 1967, the Chargers were 8-1-1 through 10 games, just a half-game behind Oakland at 9-1. The two teams squared off in the AFL Game of the Year in San Diego. The Chargers briefly looked like they had what it took to win that day, before Oakland wore them down and Lamonica tore the Chargers’ secondary to shreds. Oakland finished 13-1, while the Chargers lost all the rest of their games to fall to 8-5-1, good for third place. In 1968, through 10 games, the Chargers stood at 8-2, tied with Oakland and a half-game behind Kansas City, who had played 11 games and was 9-2. Once again, the Chargers crashed in December, falling to 9-5, while Oakland and Kansas City won out to finish tied at 12-2 (Oakland won in a playoff).

If we look at history in this division, two of the three current dominating teams should continue to dominate week after week, while the third team will eventually fall back. Having to play four games against the other two powers will take its toll on all three teams, and it figures that one team will have a tough time recovering from the beatings. Statistically, we could be looking at one team finishing 12-4, one team finishing 11-5, and the third team falling to 9-7. Of course, this could be totally off base, and all three teams could be on their way to finishing between 12-4 and 10-6. All three teams could easily make the playoffs, as it looks unlikely that the AFC East or AFC South will produce a wild card team this year.

Only Thrice in 62 Years!
Can you name the NFL team that has won its division only three times in the last 62 years? Obviously, 62 years back means this team has to be an original NFL team. That should make it easy for you. In the last 62 seasons, The Detroit Lions won their three Black and Blue Division titles in 1983, 1991, and 1993. They have been the bridesmaid more times than any other team during that period, finishing second 16 times through the years.

With Minnesota and Green Bay showing numerous liabilities through two weeks of the season, could this finally be the year that Matthew Stafford guides the Lions to the top of the NFC North? Might there be a playoff victory coming to Ford Field? The last time the Lions won a playoff game, it happened at the old Pontiac Silverdome. Detroit slaughtered Dallas that day in 1991 by a score of 38-6. It wasn’t the great Barry Sanders that did all the damage. Quarterback Erik Kramer had a career day against the Cowboys, throwing for 341 yards and three touchdowns, while the Lions’ defense picked off two passes and sacked Cowboy quarterback Troy Aikman three times.

The Offense Continues to Rest
Through two weeks of play, the median NFL score is just 19 points, down four points from last year’s total. You have to go back to 1993 to find less scoring for an entire season. The NFL total TV ratings are down by a huge amount this year through the first two weeks of the season. While many in the political world believe it has to do with players refusing to stand for the National Anthem, we tend to believe that the average fan doesn’t really pay attention to that factor. The game has become boring. Teams no longer pass the ball down the field vertically. Quarterbacks rarely throw the ball more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. When it’s 3rd and 12, they throw a five-yard pass, hoping the receiver can run for another seven. Running games have come down to three basic types–a line plunge, a stretch, and a draw. All 32 teams look identical, like they must share one playbook.

Why do we believe that the ratings are down simply due to boring games and not due to political issues? There is a very simple explanation for our beliefs. Throughout the nation, there is unrest on the university campuses from coast to coast. Riots, vandalism, assaults, and the like are on the rise, and civil unrest is more the norm than the deviant behavior. Some colleges are redefining what is free speech. The same people that would theoretically have issues with this change of sociology and would be likely to turn off college football games just like they would turn off NFL games due to similar unrest have yet to turn away. In fact, college football ratings are on the rise, gaining about as much as the NFL is losing.

Therefore, it is our belief that total football TV ratings are about on par with their historical averages. The change is that more people are now watching on Saturday than ever before, while Sunday viewing is sinking. It is obvious why this is so. College football is quite a bit more entertaining.

In the college game, you have multiple offensive philosophies. Even when multiple teams run the identical spread offense, there are many variations. Arizona’s and New Mexico’s spread offenses are basically 21st Century wishbone offenses that have evolved. Ohio State’s and Auburn’s spread offenses resemble the old single wing offenses of way back. Oklahoma’s and Clemson’s spread offenses look more like the old NFL Shotgun offenses and the really old TCU Spread of the 1950s. You also have smash-mouth T offenses with Michigan and others. You still have standard triple option offenses at Army, Navy, Air Force, Tulane, and Georgia Tech. There is variety, and on top of the varying offenses, there are numerous philosophies on how to implement these offenses.

It also doesn’t hurt the college game that the average fan can choose between four or five games at 12 PM, 3:30 PM, and 7 PM Eastern time, while the NFL does not give that option to the fans. If you live in an NFL city, you get your team’s game, and if they are at home, you get only your team’s game. CBS and Fox have to take turns getting double header games, so if your team is at home when its regular network (CBS for AFC and Fox for NFC) doesn’t have a double header, you get just one Sunday afternoon game.

The NFL has to understand that just because somebody lives in Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, or Jacksonville, it does not mean they have lived there their entire lives. Actually, in the rapidly expanding metropolis cities of the Sunny South, more fans have moved into this area from colder and less financially lucrative cities. Take Nashville for instance. The city gains 100 new residents every day. In the last three football seasons, 109,500 new residents have added to the Music City’s metro population. Of that 100K plus, a large number moved from New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa-St. Pete, Detroit, Cincinnati, Washington DC, and Dallas. Of the football fans, many remain fans of their former city and have no ties with the Titans. Go to a local sports-themed eatery on Sunday afternoon, and you will find as many fans of other teams watching their former city’s team play than there are fans at LP Field watching the Titans.

If the NFL was smart, it would drop their holier than thou elite beliefs and realize that it might be today’s Walmart having to face the new reality that there is now a better option called Amazon, and the fans have discovered this option.

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 106.4 107.0 106.3 106.5 24
Miami 99.6 99.8 99.3 99.6 23
Buffalo 97.5 98.2 97.7 97.8 22
N. Y. Jets 91.2 90.7 91.0 91.0 21
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 105.9 106.1 105.8 106.0 22
Baltimore 103.4 103.5 103.7 103.5 18
Cincinnati 97.0 97.4 97.0 97.2 16
Cleveland 94.4 94.8 94.8 94.6 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Tennessee 101.0 101.1 100.5 100.9 25
Houston 97.4 97.8 96.9 97.4 14
Jacksonville 95.5 95.7 95.4 95.5 23
Indianapolis 95.4 95.7 95.0 95.4 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Oakland 105.4 106.0 105.1 105.5 28
Kansas City 105.2 105.4 105.6 105.4 22
Denver 104.6 103.6 105.1 104.4 19
LA Chargers 99.8 99.3 99.8 99.6 26
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 103.4 102.4 103.3 103.1 23
Philadelphia 101.3 100.1 102.2 101.2 22
Washington 99.3 98.9 99.7 99.3 25
N.Y. Giants 99.3 99.6 98.9 99.3 14
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Green Bay 103.2 103.9 102.7 103.3 28
Detroit 102.4 103.2 102.4 102.7 23
Minnesota 98.7 99.0 98.8 98.8 18
Chicago 92.9 93.4 92.5 92.9 21
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.6 105.2 106.1 105.6 33
Tampa Bay 102.3 101.3 102.9 102.2 23
Carolina 101.4 100.5 101.7 101.2 25
New Orleans 98.4 97.5 98.4 98.1 33
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Seattle 101.2 101.3 100.5 101.0 18
Arizona 100.2 100.5 100.1 100.3 25
San Francisco 92.5 92.3 92.5 92.4 23
LA Rams 91.2 91.5 91.1 91.3 18

To estimate a game’s total points scored, add both teams’ totals.

 

 

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