The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 13-17, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:07 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Kansas City L.A. Chargers 6.3 5.8 5.7 54
N.Y. Jets Houston -4.7 -5.2 -5.7 48
Denver Cleveland 6.0 5.7 5.2 44.5
Chicago Green Bay 7.8 7.5 8.9 47.5
Minnesota Miami 9.5 9.7 9.1 43.5
Buffalo Detroit -4.2 -4.2 -4.1 42
Baltimore Tampa Bay 10.5 10.9 10.1 46.5
Atlanta Arizona 7.7 7.9 7.6 43.5
Cincinnati Oakland 5.2 5.2 4.9 45
N.Y. Giants Tennessee 4.2 4.3 4.9 43
Jacksonville Washington 6.2 6.3 6.0 41.5
Indianapolis Dallas 2.4 1.5 3.0 45.5
San Francisco Seattle -7.1 -7.4 -8.3 44.5
Pittsburgh New England 4.0 3.8 3.7 47.5
L.A. Rams Philadelphia 9.5 9.8 9.7 51
Carolina New Orleans -9.9 -10.5 -10.4 51.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.6 105.9 105.8 105.8 23 9-4
Miami 95.3 95.1 95.3 95.2 23 7-6
N. Y. Jets 95.0 94.5 94.6 94.7 24 4-9
Buffalo 92.5 92.4 92.2 92.3 18 4-9
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.6 106.7 106.5 106.6 24.5 7-5-1
Baltimore 103.5 103.9 103.7 103.7 21 7-6
Cleveland 97.2 97.5 98.0 97.6 24.5 5-7-1
Cincinnati 94.6 94.7 94.2 94.5 23.5 5-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.2 102.3 102.8 102.4 24 9-4
Indianapolis 101.2 100.4 101.4 101.0 25.5 7-6
Tennessee 97.4 97.4 97.1 97.3 20 7-6
Jacksonville 97.5 97.1 97.1 97.2 19 4-9
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 107.8 107.5 107.6 30 11-2
LA Chargers 104.2 105.0 104.8 104.7 24 10-3
Denver 100.3 100.2 100.2 100.2 20 6-7
Oakland 91.8 92.0 91.9 91.9 21.5 3-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.8 101.8 101.4 101.7 20 8-5
Philadelphia 100.8 100.9 100.7 100.8 22.5 6-7
N.Y. Giants 98.6 98.7 99.0 98.8 23 5-8
Washington 93.9 93.2 93.6 93.6 22.5 6-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 105.0 105.2 106.0 105.4 23 9-4
Minnesota 101.8 101.7 101.4 101.6 20.5 6-6-1
Green Bay 99.8 100.2 99.6 99.8 24.5 5-7-1
Detroit 99.2 99.1 98.8 99.0 24 5-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.8 112.9 113.1 112.9 27 11-2
Carolina 100.4 99.9 100.1 100.1 24.5 6-7
Atlanta 98.5 98.2 97.9 98.2 25.5 4-9
Tampa Bay 95.9 96.0 96.6 96.2 25.5 5-8
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.4 107.7 107.4 107.5 28.5 11-2
Seattle 104.8 105.0 105.6 105.1 22.5 8-5
San Francisco 94.7 94.6 94.3 94.5 22 3-10
Arizona 93.8 93.3 93.3 93.5 18 2-11

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 Houston
3 New England
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Miami

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Miami
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Dallas over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
Houston over New England
New Orleans over Dallas
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Houston
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
Kansas City over L.A. Rams

 

 

 

 

 

 

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December 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 6-10, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tennessee Jacksonville 0.6 0.9 0.3 39
Kansas City Baltimore 8.0 8.0 8.1 51
Houston Indianapolis 5.0 6.3 5.7 49.5
Cleveland Carolina -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 49
Green Bay Atlanta 2.6 3.3 2.6 49.5
Tampa Bay New Orleans -13.5 -13.5 -13.1 53.5
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 0.2 0.7 0.6 41
Miami New England -8.2 -9.2 -9.0 44.5
Chicago L.A. Rams -0.6 -1.3 0.0 52.5
Washington N.Y. Giants 1.8 0.9 1.4 44
San Francisco Denver -6.1 -6.1 -6.4 43
L.A. Chargers Cincinnati 13.3 13.9 14.2 47.5
Arizona Detroit -1.3 -1.5 -1.0 43
Dallas Philadelphia 4.1 4.3 4.4 41
Oakland Pittsburgh -12.8 -12.7 -12.6 46
Seattle Minnesota 4.8 4.9 5.8 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.9 106.4 106.4 106.2 22.5 9-3
Miami 94.7 94.3 94.4 94.4 22 6-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.1 94.1 94.3 23.5 3-9
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.5 106.5 106.2 106.4 24.5 7-4-1
Baltimore 102.9 103.2 102.9 103.0 21 7-5
Cleveland 96.6 96.9 97.3 96.9 24.5 4-7-1
Cincinnati 94.3 94.4 93.9 94.2 23.5 5-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.8 103.1 103.6 103.1 24 9-3
Indianapolis 100.3 99.3 100.3 100.0 25.5 6-6
Jacksonville 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.6 19 4-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.8 96.4 96.7 20 6-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.2 108.0 108.0 30 10-2
LA Chargers 104.5 105.3 105.1 105.0 24 9-3
Denver 101.8 101.7 101.7 101.7 20.5 6-6
Oakland 90.7 90.8 90.6 90.7 21.5 2-10
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 101.9 102.0 101.7 101.9 19 7-5
Philadelphia 100.7 100.7 100.4 100.6 22 6-6
N.Y. Giants 96.3 96.5 96.6 96.5 22 4-8
Washington 96.2 95.4 96.0 95.9 22 6-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 8-4
Minnesota 102.4 102.4 102.1 102.3 21 6-5-1
Green Bay 99.1 99.5 98.7 99.1 24 4-7-1
Detroit 98.4 98.2 97.8 98.1 24.5 4-8
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 112.5 112.6 112.8 112.6 27.5 10-2
Carolina 101.3 100.8 101.1 101.1 24.5 6-6
Atlanta 99.5 99.2 99.1 99.2 25.5 4-8
Tampa Bay 96.0 96.1 96.7 96.3 26 5-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.9 108.4 108.1 108.1 29 11-1
Seattle 104.2 104.3 104.9 104.5 23 7-5
Arizona 94.6 94.2 94.3 94.4 18.5 3-9
San Francisco 93.2 93.1 92.8 93.0 22.5 2-10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Chicago
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

 

November 26, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 13: November 29-December 3, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Dallas New Orleans -10.8 -11.0 -11.7 48
Jacksonville Indianapolis 0.7 1.1 -0.3 46
Pittsburgh L.A. Chargers 5.9 5.4 5.5 47.5
Tampa Bay Carolina -4.5 -4.1 -4.0 51.5
Atlanta Baltimore 1.0 0.2 0.7 46.5
Houston Cleveland 7.5 7.2 7.2 49.5
Miami Buffalo 4.6 4.3 4.5 39.5
N.Y. Giants Chicago -6.3 -6.3 -7.0 44.5
Cincinnati Denver -2.6 -2.2 -2.4 45.5
Detroit L.A. Rams -6.2 -7.0 -6.5 54
Green Bay Arizona 9.2 10.4 9.4 43.5
Oakland Kansas City -14.4 -14.9 -15.2 50
Tennessee N.Y. Jets 4.8 5.4 4.8 42.5
New England Minnesota 5.4 5.7 5.8 44.5
Seattle San Francisco 11.7 11.7 12.6 44.5
Philadelphia Washington 5.1 5.8 4.5 44

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.1 105.5 105.4 105.3 23 8-3
Miami 95.0 94.6 94.7 94.7 22 5-6
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.0 94.1 94.2 23 3-8
Buffalo 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.8 17.5 4-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.0 107.1 106.9 107.0 24 7-3-1
Baltimore 102.3 102.6 102.2 102.4 21 6-5
Cleveland 97.2 97.6 98.1 97.6 25 4-6-1
Cincinnati 95.5 95.7 95.3 95.5 24.5 5-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 102.2 102.4 102.8 102.4 24.5 8-3
Indianapolis 100.5 99.6 100.8 100.3 26.5 6-5
Jacksonville 98.6 98.2 98.1 98.3 19.5 3-8
Tennessee 96.9 96.9 96.4 96.7 19.5 5-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.3 108.2 108.1 29.5 9-2
LA Chargers 104.0 104.7 104.4 104.4 23.5 8-3
Denver 100.6 100.4 100.3 100.4 21 5-6
Oakland 90.4 90.4 90.1 90.3 20.5 2-9
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.3 20 6-5
Philadelphia 99.7 99.7 99.2 99.5 22 5-6
Washington 97.2 96.4 97.2 96.9 22 6-5
N.Y. Giants 95.6 95.7 95.8 95.7 21.5 3-8
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.4 104.5 105.3 104.7 23 8-3
Minnesota 102.7 102.8 102.6 102.7 21.5 6-4-1
Green Bay 100.2 100.8 100.0 100.3 24.5 4-6-1
Detroit 98.8 98.6 98.4 98.6 25 4-7
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 113.7 113.9 114.2 113.9 28 10-1
Carolina 102.4 102.0 102.4 102.3 25 6-5
Atlanta 100.7 100.4 100.4 100.5 25.5 4-7
Tampa Bay 95.4 95.4 95.9 95.6 26.5 4-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.5 108.0 107.5 107.7 29 10-1
Seattle 102.9 102.9 103.5 103.1 22.5 6-5
San Francisco 94.2 94.2 93.9 94.1 22 2-9
Arizona 94.0 93.4 93.5 93.6 19 2-9

 

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC Seedings

  1. Kansas City
  2. New England
  3. Houston
  4. Pittsburgh
  5. L.A. Chargers
  6. Baltimore

NFC Seedings

  1. New Orleans
  2. L.A. Rams
  3. Chicago
  4. Dallas
  5. Minnesota
  6. Washington

 

 

Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Pittsburgh
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Indianapolis

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Seattle
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Houston over Indianapolis
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Minnesota
Seattle over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
New England over Houston
New Orleans over Seattle
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
New England over L.A. Chargers
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over New England

 

 

 

November 20, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 12: November 22-26, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:49 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Detroit Chicago -2.3 -2.3 -3.3 49
Dallas Washington 5.8 6.6 5.4 41
New Orleans Atlanta 16.2 16.7 17.2 53.5
Buffalo Jacksonville -4.1 -3.8 -4.2 36
Baltimore Oakland 15.0 15.4 15.3 41.5
Tampa Bay San Francisco 2.4 1.9 2.7 49.5
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 6.3 6.4 5.8 43.5
Cincinnati Cleveland 2.5 2.6 2.0 48
N.Y. Jets New England -7.4 -8.4 -7.8 46
Carolina Seattle 3.2 2.8 3.1 46.5
Indianapolis Miami 8.9 8.4 9.6 48.5
L.A. Chargers Arizona 10.2 11.6 10.7 41.5
Denver Pittsburgh -4.9 -5.4 -5.5 45
Minnesota Green Bay 4.8 4.3 4.9 46
Houston Tennessee 6.0 5.9 6.7 43

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.8 105.2 104.9 105.0 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.9 94.3 94.6 94.6 23 3-7
Miami 94.8 94.4 94.5 94.5 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.6 92.5 92.2 92.4 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 7-2-1
Baltimore 102.2 102.5 102.1 102.3 21 5-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-5
Cleveland 96.1 96.4 96.8 96.4 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.1 101.2 101.5 101.2 24 7-3
Indianapolis 100.7 99.8 101.0 100.5 26.5 5-5
Jacksonville 99.2 98.8 98.9 98.9 19 3-7
Tennessee 98.1 98.2 97.8 98.0 19 5-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 108.0 107.9 107.8 29.5 9-2
LA Chargers 102.9 103.6 103.1 103.2 23 7-3
Denver 99.6 99.3 99.1 99.3 21 4-6
Oakland 90.6 90.6 90.3 90.5 20.5 2-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Dallas 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.3 19.5 5-5
Philadelphia 99.8 99.9 99.4 99.7 22 4-6
Washington 97.6 96.8 97.6 97.3 21.5 6-4
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 21.5 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.2 105.0 104.5 23.5 7-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.7 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-4-1
Green Bay 100.3 100.9 100.1 100.4 24.5 4-5-1
Detroit 99.0 98.9 98.7 98.9 25.5 4-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 113.8 114.0 114.4 114.1 28 9-1
Carolina 102.6 102.2 102.8 102.5 24.5 6-4
Atlanta 100.6 100.3 100.2 100.3 25.5 4-6
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 27 3-7
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.2 107.7 107.2 107.4 29 10-1
Seattle 102.4 102.4 102.8 102.5 22 5-5
San Francisco 95.3 95.5 95.2 95.3 22.5 2-8
Arizona 95.2 94.6 94.9 94.9 18.5 2-8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

If Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 Kansas City
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Indianapolis

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Dallas
5 Carolina
6 Seattle

 

Wildcard Round
Indianapolis over New England
Houston over L.A. Chargers
Chicago over Seattle
Carolina over Dallas

 

Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Indianapolis
Kansas City over Houston
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
PIttsburgh over Kansas City
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Last Night’s Rams-Chiefs Game Made A Lot of History, BUT…

Last night’s Rams-Chiefs game at the Coliseum in Los Angeles was historic.  The 105 points scored, however, was not an all-time regular season high total.  Yours truly remembers the one game that tallied 113 total points.

The year was 1966.  The Green Bay Packers were trying to win the Western Conference Championship with the Baltimore Colts hot on their heels.  In the Eastern Conference, upstart Dallas, a seventh year franchise yet to have experienced a winning record was about to surprise the two-time defending Eastern Conference Champion Cleveland.

It was the Sunday after Thanksgiving.  The football world was still talking about the Michigan State-Notre Dame game the week before and the fact that Notre Dame had secured the national title by their 51-0 pasting of USC the day before.

The Washington Redskins were just 5-6 on the dawn of this Sunday.  For Redskin fans, this was a high water mark for their franchise in recent years, as the club became known as the “Deadskins” during these years.  Legendary quarterback Otto Graham, the Tom Brady of the late 1940’s and 1950’s, had taken over the running of the team, and in his first year as head coach, Washington’s offense was much improved.  Quarterback Sonny Jurgensen flourished in the new offense, and the defense was still a work in progress with a couple of aging stars, led by the once best defender in the league in Sam Huff.

The New York Giants were headed in the opposite direction.  Just a few years earlier, the Giants rode the arm of Y.A. Tittle to three consecutive Eastern Conference Championships.  From the late 1940’s through the early 1960’s, the Giants were the most consistently good team in the NFL, much like the Pittsburgh Steelers have been since the 1970’s.  However, by 1966, the Giants had fallen on hard times.  This was their worst team in history up to that time and arguably their worst team ever.  Coach Allie Sherman’s offense was too inconsistent and conservative, and after half of a season, Sherman benched veteran starter Earl Morrall, when the Giants fell to 1-5-1.  The lone win came over the Redskins at Yankee Stadium.  At the halfway point, Sherman decided to go with what he believed was the future quarterback, Ivy Leaguer Gary Wood.  Wood was in his third season in New York, and he had played sparingly and inefficiently.  The Giants lost their next game, and they headed to District of Columbia Stadium (would be renamed Robert F. Kennedy Stadium after his assassination) to face the Redskins in a hope to sweep the one team the players believed they could beat.  They entered the game at 1-8-1.

Sherman decided to make another quarterback change for this game.  He inserted Rookie Tom Kennedy, a stretch prospect from a small college.  This would be Kennedy’s only start of his brief one year career and only real playing experience of the season.

On the other side of the field, the aging Huff prepared for this game like it was Super Bowl I.  He hated Sherman, enough to punch him in the jaw if he got the chance.  Sherman had dismissed Huff from the Giants following the 1963 season after the Giants lost to the Bears in the NFL Championship.  He wanted to punish Sherman, and when the Redskins lost to New York a few weeks earlier, it made Huff even more violent than was portrayed in the spectacular documentary, “The Violent World of Sam Huff.”

Huff fired up his teammates for this game.  The Redskins put in a game plan to blitz the daylights out of the raw rookie.  They would rush him and force him to get rid of the ball quickly or prepare to accept a lot of floral bouquets in his upcoming hospital room.

On the other side of the ball, the Redskins understood that with an erratic quarterback most likely unable to sustain many drives, that they would get many opportunities to exploit the worst defense in the NFL.  The Redskins’ players felt confident that they could top 30 points in this game and win by double digits.

The Giants won the toss that day.  It would be their only win of the day.  Kennedy was thrown into the fray quickly, and on his first pass attempt, Washington blitzed and forced him to pass quickly.  The ball was well off target and was intercepted and returned deep into Giants’ territory.  A short Redskin drive led to an immediate touchdown.  The PAT was blocked, and the score was 6-0 Redskins.

Kennedy improved somewhat the rest of the first quarter.  He improved from intercepted passes to incomplete passes.  At least, punter Ernie Koy pinned the Redskins back inside their own 25 yard line.

The Giants figured that they would have to stop Jurgensen’s pinpoint deep passes to all-pro end Charley Taylor.  This opened up running lanes, and halfback A.D. Whitfield broke free for the longest run in his career, over 60 yards for the second touchdown.  The PAT was good this time, and the Redskins led 13-0 after the end of the first quarter.  Nobody could guess what would happen next.

In the second quarter, Kennedy began to complete some passes and drove the Giants into Washington territory.  A pass play was called with an option to throw the ball to the end zone.  Facing a linebacker blitz, Chris Hanburger clobbered Kennedy into the ground, and he coughed up the ball going down.  Rookie defensive back Brig Owens would be a star one day, but on this day, he would have his best ever game.  He already had an interception in this game, and he scooped up the fumble and went all the way to the house for a Redskins’ touchdown.  Now, the score was 20-0, and the Giants could see the writing on the wall.

On the next possession, Kennedy had his career moment.  He drove the Giants 70+ yards for a touchdown to cut the lead to 20-7.  Kennedy felt confident on the sideline that he could lead the Giants back into this game.  After the defense forced Washington to punt, Kennedy began to move the Giants toward midfield, when he threw his second interception of the half.  A few plays later, Washington scored on a line plunge to make it 27-7 with time left to completely put the game away before halftime.

Once again, the key weapon for the Redskins just before the half was their defensive backfield.  Kennedy threw his third interception into the hands of future Minnesota Vikings’ Hall of Famer Paul Krause.  Jurgensen quickly led the Redskins to paydirt, and Washington led 34-7 with less than two minutes remaining in the half.  At this point, Sherman had seen enough of Kennedy.  He inserted Wood into the game, and Wood directed the Giants on a quick touchdown drive to cut the lead to 34-14 at the half.

In the locker room, Huff told his teammates not to let up and to pour it on New York.  He wanted to top 50 points, maybe even get to 60.  He knew the Giants’ defense would totally fold in the second half.  In the other locker room, Sherman decided to stick with Wood at quarterback to start the third quarter.  Wood would face the same blitz packages as Kennedy, but Wood was just as interception prone as Kennedy.  He was just as likely to complete passes to the wrong colored jersey as his own, and he would not disappoint Huff and his Redskins’ teammates.

However, on the Giants’ first possession of the third quarter, Wood directed the Giants on a scoring march.  The Giants might have been inept on defense, but they still had some weapons.  Receivers Homer Jones and Aaron Thomas were threats to score any time they caught the ball in the open field.  Old-timer Joe Morrison still had the ability to find an overdrive gear and bust open a long play.  Wood connected with Morrison, and the veteran took the ball the distance to cut the lead to 34-21.  The Giants were still alive with more than a quarter to go.

I know what you are thinking.  At this point, the game was midway through the third quarter, and the score was only 34-21.  How in the world could the teams combine for 58 more points in the next quarter and a half?  From this point on, it looked like an Arena Football game.  It started with a quick touchdown drive led by Jurgensen to put the Redskins up 41-21.  He finally connected with Taylor on a long scoring pass.

A few plays into the next drive, Wood threw a long bomb for a touchdown to Jones to cut the lead to 41-28.  Not to be outdone, Jurgensen threw long to Taylor, and Taylor took it all the way for a 74-yard score to make it 48-28, as the third quarter came to a close.

The fourth quarter was just plain crazy.  It started with New York having to punt from well inside their own territory.  Rickie Harris, who led the NFL in punt returns as a rookie in 1965 was experiencing a sophomore slump, but he broke free for a touchdown on the return, as Washington stretched the lead to 55-28.

Rather quickly, Wood tossed a touchdown pass, but this time it was to the opposite colored jerseys.  Owens intercepted his third pass of the day, and he scored on his second 60+ yard return to make it 62-28.

At this point, Sherman put Kennedy back in to face the relentless pressure.  In what would be his one big highlight of the day, he quickly responded with a touchdown pass to Thomas to make it 62-34 when the PAT sailed wide.

At this point, Graham relieved Jurgensen for the rest of the day, placing backup Dick Shiner into the game.  Shiner attempted one pass on the day, and it was intercepted, which led to the Giants scoring for the last time on this day to cut the lead to 62-41.  Time was running out on this classic game, but there would be two more scores yet.

Down by three touchdowns, Sherman called for an onside kick, which failed.  A couple of plays later, back Charlie Mitchell broke through the line on a quick trap and ran 45 yards for a touchdown.  The score was now 69-41 in favor of the Redskins, the second highest amount ever scored in an NFL game.

The last score should not have happened.  Kennedy tried to move the Giants quickly and was out of time outs.  He thought he was clocking the ball on 3rd down to set up a 4th down pass for a first down, but instead, it was 4th down.  When he threw the ball out of bounds (spiking was not legal then), the Redskins took over possession deep in Giants’ territory with less than 10 seconds remaining.

All Washington had to do was take a knee, and the game would be over.  But, Sam Huff had other ideas this Sunday afternoon.  He wasn’t pleased with just a 28-point when and 69 points.  He hated Sherman so much that he called a timeout.  He convinced Coach Graham to let kicker Charlie Gogolak try a field goal to put Washington over the 70-point mark, something that had only been done once before in regular season play and would be second most ever to when Chicago beat the Redskins 73-0 in the NFL Championship Game of 1945.

During the timeout, Huff was observed telling Sherman about his family heritage among other expletives.  He wanted to goad the Giants into starting a fight, so he could go deck Sherman.  Instead, Gogolak finished the game with a field goal to make the final score 72-41.  Coach Graham stood up for Huff by stating that he wanted to give Gogolak some extra field goal practice, but Charlie had made nine PATs in this game and didn’t need any more practice.

The win moved Washington to 6-6 in the standings, and the Redskins would split their final two games to finish the season at 7-7, their only non-losing record in a 12-year span.  Washington would not enjoy a winning season until 1969 when Vince Lombardi coached his last team prior to his death.

As for the Giants, the next week, they scored 40 points again, and for the only time in history a team lost consecutive games when they scored 40 or more points, as the Browns came from 20 points down to win 49-40.  New York would finish the season 1-12-1, giving up 35.8 points per game and turning the ball over an amazing 44 times in 14 games.  They would finally have a star quarterback the following year, when they traded for Fran Tarkenton from Minnesota, but the best Sherman could do with Tarkenton were consecutive 7-7 seasons in 1967 and 1968.  It would take until 1981 for the Giants to make the playoffs again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 13, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 11: November 15-19, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Seattle Green Bay 5.3 4.7 6.1 46.5
Detroit Carolina -1.3 -1.1 -1.8 51
Atlanta Dallas 3.7 3.5 4.1 45
Baltimore Cincinnati 9.3 9.3 9.2 45
Chicago Minnesota 4.2 3.7 5.0 45
New Orleans Philadelphia 13.0 13.1 14.0 50
Indianapolis Tennessee 1.6 0.3 2.0 45.5
Washington Houston 0.2 -0.6 0.2 45.5
N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay 3.4 3.6 3.2 47
L.A. Chargers Denver 6.7 7.8 7.7 44
Arizona Oakland 9.0 8.3 9.5 38.5
Jacksonville Pittsburgh -5.1 -5.8 -5.6 43.5
L.A. Rams * Kansas City -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 56.5
L. A. Rams Kansas City 2.4 2.8 1.8 56.5
* This is a neutral site game to be played in Mexico City

This game has now been moved back to LA due to unplayable field conditions in Mexico City.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.5 104.9 104.6 104.7 23 7-3
N. Y. Jets 94.6 94.0 94.3 94.3 23 3-7
Miami 94.5 94.1 94.2 94.2 22 5-5
Buffalo 92.3 92.2 91.9 92.1 17 3-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.6 24 6-2-1
Baltimore 103.0 103.3 102.9 103.1 21 4-5
Cincinnati 96.7 97.0 96.7 96.8 24 5-4
Cleveland 95.8 96.1 96.5 96.1 24 3-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 101.0 101.1 101.2 101.1 24 6-3
Tennessee 100.2 100.5 100.1 100.3 19 5-4
Jacksonville 99.4 99.0 99.1 99.1 19.5 3-6
Indianapolis 98.9 97.8 99.0 98.6 26.5 4-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.7 108.0 108.1 107.9 28.5 9-1
LA Chargers 103.3 104.1 103.7 103.7 23 7-2
Denver 99.2 98.8 98.5 98.8 21 3-6
Oakland 89.8 89.8 89.3 89.6 20 1-8
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.4 101.5 101.0 101.3 22 4-5
Dallas 99.9 99.8 99.3 99.7 19.5 4-5
Washington 98.7 97.9 98.9 98.5 21.5 6-3
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.5 20.5 2-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 104.2 104.1 105.0 104.4 23.5 6-3
Minnesota 102.6 102.8 102.5 102.6 21.5 5-3-1
Green Bay 100.2 100.8 99.9 100.3 24.5 4-4-1
Detroit 98.9 98.8 98.6 98.8 26 3-6
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 111.4 111.6 112.0 111.7 28 8-1
Carolina 102.7 102.3 102.9 102.6 25 6-3
Atlanta 101.1 100.9 100.9 100.9 25.5 4-5
Tampa Bay 94.6 94.4 94.9 94.6 26.5 3-6
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.1 107.7 107.0 107.3 28 9-1
Seattle 102.5 102.5 103.0 102.7 22 4-5
Arizona 96.3 95.7 96.2 96.1 18.5 2-7
San Francisco 95.0 95.2 94.9 95.0 22.5 2-8

 

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

As we enter week 11, we add a look at current playoff standings if the season ended today.

Current Playoff Standings

AFC
1 Kansas City
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Our Projections 

AFC Seeding
1 L.A. Chargers
2 Pittsburgh
3 New England
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Tennessee

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
New England over Tennessee
Houston over Kansas City
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championships
Pittsburgh over L.A. Chargers
New Orleans over L.A. Rams

 

Super Bowl 53
New Orleans over Pittsburgh

 

Can the New York Giants Pull Off The Nearly Impossible?

Prior to week 10, members of the New York Giants claimed to the media that they could win their final eight games and finish 9-7 and make the playoffs.  With a 1-7 record at the time of this statement, the chances of winning eight consecutive games and moving from last place to first place was so infinitesimal that the odds of winning the lottery were not much worse.

Yet, if the Giants were to win just one game in the first half of the schedule and then go undefeated in the second half of the schedule to win the division and make the playoffs, it would have precedent.  Yes, this has been done one time before in the post-merger era.

In fact, it was the first year of the merger between the NFL and former AFL.  In the AFC Central, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers had moved from the former NFL Century Division along with Houston and Cincinnati.  Entering the season, Cleveland was the heavy favorite to breeze to the division title and the second pick to the Baltimore Colts (Which had moved from the NFL Coastal Division to the AFC East Division, as it was ridiculous for the Colts and Rams to be in the same division).  The Browns had advanced to the NFL Championship Game in 1969 and returned the bulk of their roster.

Pittsburgh had been the worst team in the NFL in 1969, going 1-13.  Still, the Steelers were expected to contend with a mediocre Houston Oilers team for second place in the division, but nobody expected either team to contend with Cleveland or for the newly created single Wildcard spot for the AFC.

And, then there was Cincinnati.  The Bengals had been in existence for just two seasons.  They were a dismal 3-11 in 1968, but in 1969, they had one fantastic rookie quarterback.  Greg Cook, a local hero who had been a star quarterback at Chillicothe High School and the University of Cincinnati, had been the Bengals’ first round pick in the  1969 draft.  Cook immediately won the starting quarterback job in training camp.  He was a gunslinger type passer, typical of the type of quarterback that made the AFL more exciting than the conservative NFL.  The Bengals, led by legendary coach Paul Brown, rarely threw short passes.  Their strategy was to stretch the field vertically to open up running lanes for their two starting running backs, halfback Paul Robinson fullback Jess Phillips.

Cook’s debut was similar to Pat Mahomes this year with the Chiefs.  In his very first game, the Bengals beat Miami thanks to two long touchdown passes from Cook to receiver Eric Crabtree.  Nobody thought too much of the game, since the Dolphins were also an expansion team that had yet to build up a decent roster.  In week two, Cincinnati hosted a San Diego Chargers team that was a contender for the AFL West title.  The Chargers were big favorites, and Cook once again hooked up for two long touchdown passes, one to Bob Trumpy and one to future head coach Bruce Coslet.

At 2-0, the Bengals picked up a little notice, but week three was going to obviously be their week for comeuppance.  The powerful Kansas City Chiefs with the best defense in AFL history were coming to the Queen City.  Cook would have no chance against the best defensive line in all of football, the line that would lead KC to the Super Bowl title in a few months.  Because of the great start, NBC made this their nationally televised AFL Game in the early time slot, and yours truly was perched in front of the big Zenith TV watching this game in all hopes that the new phenom could become another Joe Namath and Daryle Lamonica for the much “funner” AFL.

Cook once again opened this game with brilliant passing plays to set up his running backs.  After spotting the Chiefs a couple of field goals, Cook led the Bengals on a scoring drive that ended with a scoring pass to Crabtree.  The Bengals led 7-6, but their history was about to be changed forever.  In the second quarter, Cook dropped back to pass and faced a Chiefs’ blitz by the outside linebackers.  Chiefs’ outside linebacker Jim Lynch knocked Cook to the ground, forcing all his weight on Cook’s throwing shoulder.  Cook would later say he heard his shoulder pop, and he exited the game with intense pain.

The Bengals hung on to win behind back up QB and future head coach Sam Wyche.  They were an incredible 3-0 and led the AFL West over the Chiefs and Raiders.  However, their gunslinger was out of bullets for the next three weeks.  Had doctors been able to diagnose a torn rotator cuff, they would have held Cook out for the rest of the year, but 1969 was a different time.  Cook was expected to come back and play in four weeks, maybe even less if he felt strong enough to throw.

He came back two weeks later, because the Bengals could not move the ball without him in the lineup.  They failed at San Diego and fell to 3-1.  Cook wasn’t ready to face the second best defense in the league in the New York Jets.  He could not get any strength behind his passes, and the Jets’ pass rush forced him to throw quickly in fear of further hurting his shoulder.  He didn’t last a half.  He had to leave the game in the second quarter, and the Bengals lost to the Jets by 14.  It was a mistake for him to try to play, and his shoulder hurt worse than it had after the initial injury.

Cook was held out of play the next two weeks, and the Bengals looked more like the expansion team they were.  A weak Denver team pummeled them, and then the Chiefs punished them in a revenge match at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City.  The loss dropped the Bengals to 3-4 at the halfway mark.  Cincinnati would have to win out to have any chance of making the playoffs, and they had yet to play the powerhouse team of the league, the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland had yet to lose a game in 1969.  This Raiders’ team looked as strong if not stronger than the two previous teams that went 13-1 and 12-2.  At 6-0-1, Oakland led Kansas City by a half-game.  Once again, this was the nationally televised AFL game on NBC that week, and yours truly sat in front of the ole Zenith ready to route the silver and black to an easy victory.

Cook made his last hurrah in this game.  Brown showed his genius in this game.  He used his wideouts as decoys, sending them deep, while placing his tight ends to run intermediate routes over the middle.  Cook hit Trumpy over and over across the middle, setting up third receiver Chip Myers as a surprise.  The strategy worked, and thanks to the Bengals’ defense picking off a trio of Lamonica passes in the first half, Cinti led 24-0 at the half on way to an easy 31-17 victory.  It would be Oakland’s only loss of the season, and it would be the Bengals’ last win of the season.

Cook limped through the rest of the year unable to put any zip on the ball, and the Bengals finished 4-9-1 and in last place in the AFL West.  Prospects were still high for the Bengals, because after an off-season of rest Cook would be ready to return to form in 1970.

However, things did not go according to plan.  Cook never again regained his arm strength as his rotator cuff injury did not heal itself on its own.  He would never again start a game for the Bengals or anybody else.  He appeared briefly in one game four years later, but it was obvious that he would never again be an NFL quarterback.

The Bengals entered 1970 picked to finish in last place, because Sam Wyche was not the quarterback to lead a team to victory in the new AFC.  He didn’t have the arm accuracy of Cook, and he lacked the finesse to hit shorter passes with much success.  The Bengals would have to try to win by pounding the ball with Phillips, Robinson, and new addition Essex Johnson.

In week one, the Bengals pulled off their miracle for the season, or at least that’s what most sports fans believed.  The three running backs combined for 200 rushing yards, and Wyche even contributed with his legs, scoring a rushing touchdown.  Cincinnati upset Oakland once again.

Over the next six weeks, the Bengals performed exactly like they were expected to perform–miserably.  In their first interconference game in their history, Detroit ran over them like a fleet of automobiles leaving the plant.  The passing stats were plain awful–64 yards!  Losses piled up against Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and Pittsburgh.

At the halfway point of the season, Cleveland led the AFC Central with a disappointing 4-3 record.  As expected, Pittsburgh and Houston fought for second place.  The Steelers were 3-4, while the Oilers were 2-4-1.  The Bengals were 1-6, and it looked like a similar second half would give Cincinnati the chance to draft at the top of the 1970 Draft, where Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning were there for the taking.

The Bengals players refused to give up.  A smart future NFL legend was on the Brown’s staff, and he came to Brown with an idea.  Insert backup Virgil Carter at quarterback for Wyche.  Carter had flamed out in Chicago, where he was best when he turned and handed the ball to Gayle Sayers.  Carter had an accurate arm and rather quick ability to read defenses, but his arm strength limited the types of passes he could throw.  Anything longer than 20 yards downfield looked like a beach ball floating to defensive backs.

This intelligent assistant was Bill Walsh.  His idea was what we know today as the West Coast Offense, but it should have been called the Ohio River offense.  Walsh went to Brown with ideas to spread the field horizontally and use all 53 plus yards from sideline to sideline, which would also create holes for the backs to run through, and better yet, more defensive players would be out of position to make tackles if they were spread wide.

Carter had actually become the starting quarterback a few weeks earlier, but it wasn’t until the Bengals went to War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo that the new strategy was implemented.  At 3-4, the Bills were going nowhere, but they had a rookie running back that had to be stopped in O.J. Simpson.  The Bengals figured the best way to stop Simpson was to keep the ball out of Simpson’s hands.  They tried their new ball-control short passing strategy.  It had only mediocre success, but the Bengals’ defense and special teams scored three touchdowns and set up another, as Cincinnati rolled to a 43-14 victory to improve to 2-6.  Cleveland lost to Oakland to fall into a first place tie with Pittsburgh at 4-4, while Houston fell to 2-5-1.  The Bengals were still in last place, but there was a glimmer of hope just two games behind the co-leaders.

In week 9, Cleveland came to Riverfront Stadium in the most important game in the Bengals’ early franchise history.  With Pittsburgh having to play the Chiefs, there was a chance that Cincinnati could finish the day just one game behind the two co-leaders.

Of course, this meant that Cincinnati had to win against their bitter enemy, the team named for their own coach.  It was a cold and windy day, and long passes were not easy to attempt.  Cleveland QB Mike Phipps saw some early success, but he could do nothing else once the winds picked up.  The Bengals shut down Leroy Kelly, and after trailing 10-0, they slowly came back with their short passing game.  The biggest threat this day came off the passing game, but it did not necessarily come from the passes themselves.  Carter noticed that the Browns’ linebackers were dropping wide into the flat zones, as Cleveland tried to take away the short hook and out patterns.  It left a gaping hole in the middle of the field, and when the Browns rushed from the outside-in, it looked to Carter like he could have driven his car in the opening.  Carter actually topped 100 yards rushing for the only time in his career, and Cincinnati upset the Browns.

Pittsburgh lost to the Chiefs, while Houston lost again.  Now, the Browns and Steelers were tied at 4-5, while Cincnnati was 3-6 and Houston was 2-6-1.  The Bengals could see their opportunity.  They were all of a sudden the only hot team in the division.  They truly believed that they would keep winning.  Better yet, the schedule got easier from this point on.

Pittsburgh came to Riverfront the next week, and the Bengals were now a short favorite to win the game.  While Cleveland put Houston out of their misery to square their record at 5-5, Cincinnati blew the Steelers off the astroturf.  Terry Bradshaw lasted long enough to toss three interceptions before getting yanked in favor of Terry Hanratty, but by then, the outcome had been decided.  Pinpoint passing by Carter, solid running by Robinson, and a solid effort by the defense led the Bengals to another blowout win.  Now, after 10 weeks, Cleveland could hear the roar of the Bengals.  The Browns still led the division at 5-5, but Cincinnati was 4-6, while Pittsburgh was also 4-6, making this an exciting race down the stretch

In week 11, Cincinnati benefited from having the worst team in the NFC come to town, and the Bengals clawed New Orleans for an easy victory.  Meanwhile, the Steelers knocked off the Browns, roughing up Phipps and forcing old veteran Bill Nelsen to finish the game.  The three teams were now tied at 5-6, and the media were starting to get on the Bengals’ bandwagon.

Week 12 was the big one.  Cincinnati’s only really tough remaining game took them across the continent to San Diego to face a Chargers team fighting in a three-way race in the AFC West.  It was a must-win game for both teams.  San Diego would be all but eliminated with a loss, while a win and losses by the Raiders and Chiefs would give them a chance to sneak in at the end.

The game was a tough defensive struggle, and for the only time since the implementation of the short passing game, Cincinnati could not move the ball with short passes.  San Diego begged Carter to throw long, and when he did, he was off target.  The Bengals would finish with zero net passing yards this Sunday, and the running game would manage 136 yards.  Few teams win NFL games with 136 total yards, but when you have the best punt returner in football in Lemar Parrish, sometimes you win games on 83-yard punt returns, which is what Cincinnati did when they edged the Chargers by three.

Cleveland topped a breathless Oilers team, but Pittsburgh lost to Green Bay.  The Bengals and Browns stayed tied at 6-6, while Pittsburgh was still in the race at 5-7, but obviously on the verge of elimination.

Week 13 saw the NFL experts picking the obvious.  Cincinnati played at the breathless Oilers, while Cleveland was forced to play the other hot team in the league in Dallas.  The Bengals had no trouble quickly topping the Oilers, rushing for close to 200 yards, while Carter got some rest in the second half.  At the same time, Cleveland could not move the ball at all against the surging Cowboys.  They lost a defensive struggle where they could only muster a safety.  Now, with one week to play, Cincinnati led the division at 7-6, while Cleveland was 6-7.  Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta and was eliminated at 5-8.

All Cincinnati had to do to complete the miraculous turnaround from 1-6 to 8-6 was to top a weak 2-11 Boston Patriots team at Riverfront Stadium.  Cleveland had to beat Denver, as they held the tiebreaker over the Bengals should both teams finish 7-7.

It was never in doubt.  Boston was now in star franchise quarterback mode.  A loss to the Bengals would give the Patriots their choice of Plunkett or Manning.  They wanted Plunkett, and they were sure to get him.  The Patriots looked worse than the 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs would look in six years.  Cincinnati looked like the 1962 Green Bay Packers this day, as they rolled to a 45-7 victory.  Carter’s day was over early, after he went 3 for 3 for 96 yards and a TD.  Cincinnati had done the almost impossible–going from last place and 1-6 in the first half to first place and 7-0 in the second half.  The Bengals were inept against eventual Super Bowl Champion Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs when the Colts used the same tactics as the Chargers to stop the Cincinnati short passing game.  It was still an incredible year to remember in the Queen City, as a third year team won its division.

Now, can the 2018 New York Giants go from 1-7 to 9-7 and win the division?  Chances are less than the chances Cincinnati faced for multiple reasons.

First, the team at the top of the standings, Washington, is 6-3.  The Browns were never three games over .500 in 1970.  It’s possible that the Redskins could go 2-5 the rest of the way, but chances are less than 50-50 that will happen.

Second, Dallas and Philadelphia are not Pittsburgh and Houston.  You have the reigning World Champions that have yet to find their way in 2018, but they are not likely to fold.  Dallas may be an 8-8 team at best, but just one upset in the final weeks could move the Cowboys to 9-7.

Lastly, this Giants team just isn’t good enough to win eight consecutive games.  All they have done so far is beat a lowly 49ers team on Monday Night Football.  Unlike the Bengals in 1970, the 2018 Giants have a tough, almost brutal, closing schedule.  They are one-point favorites over Tampa Bay this week, but they will be underdogs in the rest of their games against the Eagles, Bears, Redskins, Titans, Colts, and Cowboys.  The more likely scenario is a 4-12 finish and not a 9-7 finish.

 

 

November 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 10: November 8-12, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Pittsburgh Carolina 5.5 6.1 5.2
Chicago Detroit 7.3 7.0 8.1
Cincinnati New Orleans -7.6 -7.5 -8.1
Cleveland Atlanta -5.5 -5.1 -5.0
Green Bay Miami 7.2 8.2 6.8
Indianapolis Jacksonville 1.6 0.8 1.8
Kansas City Arizona 14.8 16.1 15.7
L.A. Rams Seattle 7.8 8.6 7.6
N.Y. Jets Buffalo 8.9 8.3 8.9
Oakland L.A. Chargers -11.0 -11.8 -11.9
Philadelphia Dallas 5.9 6.2 6.3
Tampa Bay Washington -0.4 0.4 0.1
Tennessee New England -4.3 -4.7 -5.0
San Francisco N.Y. Giants 3.3 4.0 3.6

 

Home Visitor Total
Pittsburgh Carolina 47
Chicago Detroit 48.5
Cincinnati New Orleans 51
Cleveland Atlanta 49.5
Green Bay Miami 46.5
Indianapolis Jacksonville 45
Kansas City Arizona 47
L.A. Rams Seattle 49
N.Y. Jets Buffalo 38.5
Oakland L.A. Chargers 44.5
Philadelphia Dallas 41.5
Tampa Bay Washington 49
Tennessee New England 42
San Francisco N.Y. Giants 43

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.8 106.3 106.1 106.1 23 7-2
N. Y. Jets 97.1 96.5 96.8 96.8 22.5 3-6
Miami 95.4 95.0 95.3 95.2 22 5-4
Buffalo 90.3 90.2 89.9 90.1 16 2-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.2 106.4 106.2 106.3 23 5-2-1
Baltimore 102.7 103.0 102.6 102.8 21 4-5
Cincinnati 98.5 98.8 98.5 98.6 23.5 5-3
Cleveland 94.3 94.5 94.8 94.5 24 2-6-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.7 100.8 100.9 100.8 24 6-3
Jacksonville 99.8 99.5 99.7 99.6 19 3-5
Tennessee 98.4 98.6 98.1 98.4 19 4-4
Indianapolis 98.5 97.3 98.4 98.1 26 3-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.9 108.4 108.5 108.3 28 8-1
LA Chargers 103.3 104.1 103.7 103.7 23.5 6-2
Denver 98.9 98.5 98.2 98.5 21 3-6
Oakland 90.3 90.3 89.8 90.1 21 1-7
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.3 102.5 102.1 102.3 22 4-4
Dallas 99.5 99.3 98.7 99.2 19.5 3-5
Washington 98.1 97.2 98.1 97.8 22 5-3
N.Y. Giants 95.2 95.0 95.1 95.1 20.5 1-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 103.9 103.7 104.6 104.1 23 5-3
Minnesota 102.3 102.5 102.2 102.3 21.5 5-3-1
Green Bay 99.6 100.2 99.1 99.6 24.5 3-4-1
Detroit 99.2 99.2 99.0 99.1 25.5 3-5
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 109.1 109.3 109.7 109.4 27.5 7-1
Carolina 103.7 103.3 104.0 103.7 24 6-2
Atlanta 102.8 102.7 102.8 102.7 25.5 4-4
Tampa Bay 95.2 95.1 95.7 95.3 27 3-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.3 108.0 107.4 107.6 27.5 8-1
Seattle 102.5 102.4 102.8 102.6 21.5 4-4
San Francisco 95.6 96.0 95.7 95.8 22.5 2-7
Arizona 96.1 95.3 95.8 95.7 19 2-6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC Seeding
1 New Orleans
2 L.A. Rams
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Philadelphia

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Carolina
L.A. Rams over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
L.A. Chargers over Pittsburgh
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over L.A. Chargers

 

October 30, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 9: November 1-5, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
San Francisco Oakland 3.8 4.3 4.3 44.5
Minnesota Detroit 4.9 5.0 4.6 48.5
Cleveland Kansas City -9.9 -10.1 -9.7 51
Baltimore Pittsburgh -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 44.5
Carolina Tampa Bay 10.7 10.2 10.1 49.5
Miami N.Y. Jets 0.8 0.9 0.7 46.5
Washington Atlanta 0.9 0.5 1.6 47.5
Buffalo Chicago -7.9 -7.5 -8.7 37
Denver Houston 1.6 1.4 0.9 46.5
Seattle L.A. Chargers 3.8 3.1 4.1 45
New Orleans L.A. Rams 4.0 3.3 4.1 53
New England Green Bay 8.6 8.4 9.2 47.5
Dallas Tennessee 6.3 6.2 6.3 38.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.5 105.9 105.7 105.7 23 6-2
N. Y. Jets 97.3 96.8 97.2 97.1 23.5 3-5
Miami 95.2 94.7 94.9 94.9 23 4-4
Buffalo 91.9 91.9 91.6 91.8 15 2-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 106.0 106.1 105.8 106.0 23 4-2-1
Baltimore 103.3 103.7 103.4 103.5 21.5 4-4
Cincinnati 98.2 98.5 98.2 98.3 23.5 5-3
Cleveland 94.6 94.9 95.3 94.9 23.5 2-5-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Houston 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.5 24.5 5-3
Jacksonville 99.5 99.2 99.4 99.3 19 3-5
Indianapolis 98.2 97.0 98.1 97.8 26 3-5
Tennessee 97.4 97.5 96.9 97.3 19 3-4
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.6 108.0 108.0 107.9 27.5 7-1
LA Chargers 102.5 103.2 102.7 102.8 23.5 5-2
Denver 99.1 98.8 98.5 98.8 22 3-5
Oakland 92.0 92.0 91.6 91.9 22 1-6
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.0 102.2 101.8 102.0 22 4-4
Dallas 100.8 100.7 100.2 100.6 19.5 3-4
Washington 99.6 98.8 99.9 99.4 22 5-2
N.Y. Giants 94.9 94.7 94.8 94.8 20.5 1-7
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.7 102.4 103.3 102.8 22 4-3
Minnesota 101.7 101.8 101.4 101.6 22 4-3-1
Green Bay 99.9 100.6 99.5 100.0 24.5 3-3-1
Detroit 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.8 26.5 3-4
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 108.6 108.7 109.0 108.8 26.5 6-1
Carolina 103.6 103.1 103.7 103.5 23.5 5-2
Atlanta 101.6 101.4 101.3 101.4 25.5 3-4
Tampa Bay 95.4 95.4 96.1 95.6 26 3-4
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 107.6 108.4 107.9 108.0 26.5 8-0
Seattle 103.3 103.3 103.8 103.5 21.5 4-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 19 2-6
San Francisco 94.4 94.8 94.4 94.5 22.5 1-7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Cincinnati

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Minnesota
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Seattle

 

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Seattle over Minnesota
Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
Pittsburgh over New England
L.A. Rams over Seattle
New Orleans over Carolina

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Kansas City

 

Our Annual November Tradition

The Autumn Wind is a PiRate
Blustering in from sea.
With a rollicking song, he sweeps along
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weather beaten.
He wears a hooded sash.
With a silver hat about his head,
And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country
A villain big and bold.
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,
As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a Raider
Pillaging just for fun.
He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,
And laugh when he’s conquered and won.

Author: Steve Sabol, NFL Films

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 8: October 25-29, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Houston Miami 5.8 6.3 5.8 46
Jacksonville (n) Philadelphia -2.0 -2.4 -1.7 41
Pittsburgh Cleveland 12.8 12.7 11.8 46
Kansas City Denver 11.9 12.5 12.9 48.5
Chicago N.Y. Jets 7.8 7.8 8.3 47.5
N.Y. Giants Washington -1.2 -0.7 -1.7 44
Detroit Seattle 1.6 1.9 1.6 49.5
Cincinnati Tampa Bay 6.1 6.6 5.4 47.5
Carolina Baltimore -0.3 -1.6 -0.7 43.5
Oakland Indianapolis -0.6 0.9 -0.7 46
Arizona San Francisco 4.1 2.8 3.8 43.5
L.A. Rams Green Bay 11.7 11.8 12.4 51
Minnesota New Orleans -2.8 -2.6 -3.1 48.5
Buffalo New England -15.2 -15.7 -15.7 38.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.3 105.7 105.5 105.5 23 5-2
N. Y. Jets 97.6 97.2 97.6 97.5 24.5 3-4
Miami 96.7 96.2 96.6 96.5 22 4-3
Buffalo 92.1 92.1 91.8 92.0 15.5 2-5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.9 106.0 105.6 105.8 23 3-2-1
Baltimore 104.7 105.3 105.0 105.0 21 4-3
Cincinnati 98.4 98.8 98.4 98.5 23 4-3
Cleveland 95.0 95.3 95.8 95.4 23 2-4-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 100.0 99.8 100.0 99.9 19 3-4
Houston 99.5 99.5 99.4 99.4 24 4-3
Tennessee 97.1 97.2 96.6 97.0 19 3-4
Indianapolis 97.1 95.7 96.8 96.5 25 2-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 107.8 108.2 108.2 108.1 27 6-1
LA Chargers 102.2 102.9 102.4 102.5 23.5 5-2
Denver 98.9 98.6 98.3 98.6 21.5 3-4
Oakland 93.4 93.6 93.2 93.4 21 1-5
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.0 102.1 101.7 101.9 22 3-4
Dallas 100.5 100.4 99.9 100.3 19.5 3-4
Washington 99.3 98.5 99.6 99.1 22.5 4-2
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.3 95.4 95.4 21.5 1-6
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 23 3-3
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 22 4-2-1
Detroit 100.7 100.9 100.9 100.8 27 3-3
Green Bay 99.4 100.1 99.0 99.5 24.5 3-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.8 107.8 108.0 107.9 26.5 5-1
Carolina 101.9 101.2 101.8 101.6 22.5 4-2
Atlanta 101.3 101.1 101.0 101.1 25.5 3-4
Tampa Bay 95.3 95.2 96.0 95.5 24.5 3-3
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.1 108.9 108.4 108.5 26.5 7-0
Seattle 102.1 102.0 102.4 102.2 22.5 3-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 19.5 1-6
San Francisco 94.7 95.1 94.7 94.8 24 1-6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Minnesota
4 Washington
5 Carolina
6 Detroit

 

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Minnesota over Detroit
Carolina over Washington

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
Pittsburgh over New England
L.A. Rams over Carolina
New Orleans over Minnesota

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Kansas City

 

 

 

October 15, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 7, October 18-22, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Arizona Denver 1.4 0.8 1.7 40
L.A. Chargers [London] Tennessee 5.5 6.3 6.6 42.5
Indianapolis Buffalo 4.3 2.9 4.3 40.5
Philadelphia Carolina 2.7 3.4 2.3 45.5
Kansas City Cincinnati 9.9 9.8 10.3 50
Tampa Bay Cleveland 2.8 2.4 2.8 47.5
Miami Detroit -1.0 -1.6 -1.1 48.5
Jacksonville Houston 5.2 5.2 5.7 44
N.Y. Jets Minnesota -0.4 -1.0 -0.2 45.5
Chicago New England 0.0 -1.0 0.3 44
Baltimore New Orleans -0.1 0.5 0.0 47.5
Washington Dallas 1.3 0.6 2.2 42.5
San Francisco L.A. Rams -10.4 -10.8 -10.7 50.5
Atlanta N.Y. Giants 8.3 8.2 8.1 47

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 105.0 105.4 105.1 105.2 22.5 4-2
N. Y. Jets 98.5 98.2 98.7 98.5 24 3-3
Miami 97.2 96.8 97.3 97.1 22 4-2
Buffalo 93.8 93.8 93.5 93.7 15.5 2-4
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.6 105.7 105.3 105.5 23 3-2-1
Baltimore 104.7 105.3 105.0 105.0 21 4-2
Cincinnati 99.9 100.3 99.9 100.0 23 4-2
Cleveland 95.0 95.3 95.7 95.3 23 2-3-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 101.1 101.0 101.3 101.1 20 3-3
Houston 98.4 98.3 98.1 98.2 24 3-3
Tennessee 96.9 96.9 96.2 96.7 19 3-3
Indianapolis 95.6 94.2 95.3 95.0 25 1-5
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.8 107.2 107.2 107.1 27 5-1
LA Chargers 102.4 103.2 102.8 102.8 23.5 4-2
Denver 97.4 97.1 96.8 97.1 21.5 2-4
Oakland 93.1 93.3 92.9 93.1 21 1-5
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 102.0 102.1 101.7 101.9 22.5 3-3
Dallas 100.5 100.4 99.9 100.3 20 3-3
Washington 99.3 98.5 99.6 99.1 22.5 3-2
N.Y. Giants 95.5 95.3 95.4 95.4 21.5 1-5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.4 102.0 102.9 102.4 21.5 3-2
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 21.5 3-2-1
Detroit 100.7 100.9 100.9 100.8 26.5 2-3
Green Bay 99.4 100.1 99.0 99.5 24.5 3-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.8 107.8 108.0 107.9 26.5 4-1
Carolina 101.9 101.2 101.8 101.6 23 3-2
Atlanta 101.3 101.1 101.0 101.1 25.5 2-4
Tampa Bay 95.3 95.2 96.0 95.5 24.5 2-3
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.1 108.9 108.4 108.5 26.5 6-0
Seattle 102.1 102.0 102.4 102.2 22.5 3-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 18.5 1-5
San Francisco 94.7 95.1 94.7 94.8 24 1-5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Pittsburgh

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Philadelphia
4 Chicago
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Philadelphia over Minnesota
Carolina over Chicago

 

Divisional Round
L.A. Chargers over Kansas City
Baltimore over New England
L.A. Rams over Carolina
Philadelphia over New Orleans

 

Conference Championship
Baltimore over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl 53
L.A. Rams over Baltimore

 

 

 

October 8, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 6, October 11-15, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
N.Y. Giants Philadelphia -2.6 -2.7 -1.8 44.0
Atlanta Tampa Bay 8.7 8.8 8.1 49.0
Washington Carolina -0.9 -1.4 -1.2 45.5
Oakland [London] Seattle -6.8 -6.3 -6.9 44.0
N.Y. Jets Indianapolis 5.8 6.8 5.7 47.0
Minnesota Arizona 9.2 10.3 9.4 40.0
Cincinnati Pittsburgh -2.3 -1.8 -1.4 46.0
Cleveland L.A. Chargers -1.4 -1.9 -0.7 46.5
Houston Buffalo 8.0 7.7 7.8 40.5
Miami Chicago -2.5 -2.6 -3.2 42.0
Denver L.A. Rams -8.1 -9.4 -9.4 48.0
Tennessee Baltimore -2.0 -2.5 -2.7 42.0
Dallas Jacksonville -1.3 -1.2 -2.1 40.0
New England Kansas City 1.0 1.1 0.5 48.0
Green Bay San Francisco 8.1 8.4 7.7 47.5

Detroit and New Orleans have Byes

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New England 104.9 105.3 104.9 105.0 21.5 3-2
N. Y. Jets 98.4 98.1 98.4 98.3 23 2-3
Miami 97.1 96.6 97.0 96.9 21.5 3-2
Buffalo 93.6 93.7 93.4 93.5 16 2-3
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.4 104.8 23 2-2-1
Baltimore 103.5 104.0 103.6 103.7 22 3-2
Cincinnati 100.2 100.7 100.5 100.5 23 4-1
Cleveland 96.5 96.8 97.4 96.9 23 2-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Jacksonville 103.1 103.0 103.3 103.1 21 3-2
Houston 98.6 98.4 98.2 98.4 24.5 2-3
Tennessee 98.4 98.5 97.9 98.3 20 3-2
Indianapolis 95.7 94.3 95.6 95.2 24 1-4
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Kansas City 106.9 107.3 107.4 107.2 26.5 5-0
LA Chargers 100.9 101.7 101.1 101.3 23.5 3-2
Denver 97.2 96.8 96.4 96.8 21.5 2-3
Oakland 94.2 94.5 94.2 94.3 21.5 1-4
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Philadelphia 101.2 101.2 100.6 101.0 22.5 2-3
Dallas 98.8 98.7 98.2 98.6 19 2-3
Washington 98.9 97.9 98.9 98.6 22.5 2-2
N.Y. Giants 96.6 96.5 96.8 96.6 21.5 1-4
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
Chicago 102.5 102.2 103.2 102.6 20.5 3-1
Minnesota 102.0 102.2 101.9 102.0 21.5 2-2-1
Detroit 100.4 100.6 100.6 100.5 26.5 2-3
Green Bay 99.6 100.3 99.2 99.7 24 2-2-1
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
New Orleans 107.5 107.5 107.7 107.6 26.5 4-1
Carolina 102.3 101.8 102.5 102.2 23 3-1
Atlanta 101.4 101.3 101.3 101.3 25 1-4
Tampa Bay 95.2 95.0 95.7 95.3 24 2-2
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals W-L
LA Rams 108.3 109.2 108.8 108.8 26.5 5-0
Seattle 101.0 100.8 101.1 101.0 22.5 2-3
Arizona 95.8 95.0 95.5 95.4 18.5 1-4
San Francisco 94.5 94.9 94.5 94.6 23.5 1-4

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Kansas City
2 New England
3 Cincinnati
4 Jacksonville
5 L.A. Chargers
6 Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans
3 Chicago
4 Philadelphia
5 Carolina
6 Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round
Cincinnati over Baltimore
L.A. Chargers over Jacksonville
Chicago over Minnesota
Carolina over Philadelphia

 

Divisional Round
Kansas City over L.A. Chargers
New England over Cincinnati
L.A. Rams over Carolina
New Orleans over Chicago

 

Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
L.A. Rams over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl 53
Kansas City over L.A. Rams

 

 

 

 

 

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