The Pi-Rate Ratings

June 4, 2020

PiRate Ratings Going Ahead As Planned

Hello to all of our patrons and occasional readers.  The PiRate Ratings are currently going under the preseason compilation for both College and Pro football as if nothing has changed from the past.

Should the season be postponed or other major changes are made, we will do our best to adjust the ratings based on whatever presents itself.

Additionally, we will not participate in any political commentary or make any comments other than mathematical and historical counts.  That means that even though 2020 is an election year, we have chosen to stay out entirely from issuing any electoral vote count predictions and all the House and Senate forecasts.

We want this to be an escape for you to visit to get away from all other outside forces.  We are strongly considering adding a potential tabletop football game like we did several years ago with a “best of” tournament between some of the greatest college football teams of all time, similar to how we did this as a replacement to the NCAA Basketball Tournament, won by the 1968 UCLA Bruins.

Additionally, we are also considering putting a package together where people can send a small payment here, and we will send you the PDF files to print the “best of franchise” NFL and AFL teams between 1960 and 1979 with instructions on how you can cheaply print and have your own tabletop football strategy game to play.  We currently do not have a zip file creator on the PiRate ship.

One more heads up.  WordPress has begun to phase out the original editor, and they may force a new editor to be used, one that is not friendly to pasting tables from our spreadsheet.  If for any reason we find it impossible to paste our spreadsheet tables into this site, we will create a new site and leave the link to that site as the final posting here. Let’s hope we can get through the season without having to make that change.

If all goes according to the norm, expect to see the preseason PiRate College Football Ratings around August 20 and the NFL Football Ratings within hours after the teams make their final cuts the first Saturday in September.

Sincerely

The Captain

January 13, 2020

PiRate Ratings For Conference Championship Round January 19, 2020

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Kansas City

Tennessee

5.5

6.0

7.0

San Francisco

Green Bay

7.3

7.8

7.5

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Kansas City

Tennessee

51

 

San Francisco

Green Bay

49.5

December 29, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for the Wildcat Playoff Round January 4-5, 2020

Filed under: Pro Football — piratings @ 10:12 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings For Wildcard Playoff Round

January 4-5, 2020

 

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Houston

Buffalo

3.0

2.6

2.5

New England

Tennessee

6.8

7.2

6.6

New Orleans

Minnesota

6.0

5.6

6.1

Philadelphia

Seattle

4.7

3.9

3.6

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Houston

Buffalo

40

New England

Tennessee

41

New Orleans

Minnesota

48.5

Philadelphia

Seattle

47

Wildcard Playoff Schedule 

 

Day

Time

Network

Home

Visitors

Sat

4:35 PM

ABC *

Houston

Buffalo

Sat

8:15 PM

CBS

New England

Tennessee

Sun

1:05 PM

Fox

New Orleans

Minnesota

Sun

4:40 PM

NBC

Philadelphia

Seattle

* ABC game will also be simulcast on ESPN

 

 

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

105.8

106.4

105.8

106.0

19.5

12-4

Buffalo

102.0

103.0

103.0

102.7

16.5

10-6

N. Y. Jets

94.7

95.4

94.6

94.9

20.5

7-9

Miami

91.6

92.0

92.0

91.9

28.5

5-11

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

112.0

112.3

113.2

112.5

25

14-2

Pittsburgh

98.6

99.0

99.2

98.9

19

8-8

Cleveland

96.6

96.6

96.4

96.5

24.5

6-10

Cincinnati

93.9

93.7

93.9

93.8

24

2-14

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.0

102.5

102.5

102.4

23.5

10-6

Tennessee

102.0

102.2

102.2

102.1

21.5

9-7

Indianapolis

98.0

98.7

98.0

98.2

24

7-9

Jacksonville

93.4

93.6

93.6

93.5

19

6-10

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

107.0

107.7

107.7

107.5

29.5

12-4

LA Chargers

100.4

100.0

99.3

99.9

22

5-11

Denver

99.2

99.6

99.5

99.4

18.5

7-9

Oakland

92.6

92.4

92.4

92.5

25

7-9

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.2

105.4

105.1

105.2

23

8-8

Philadelphia

102.8

101.8

101.7

102.1

23.5

9-7

N.Y. Giants

92.8

92.9

93.2

93.0

25.5

4-12

Washington

90.3

90.8

90.2

90.4

20.5

3-13

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.8

105.7

105.8

106.1

21.5

10-6

Green Bay

104.0

104.2

104.8

104.3

24

13-3

Chicago

101.1

98.9

98.8

99.6

17

8-8

Detroit

94.8

93.2

92.9

93.7

23.5

3-12-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

109.8

108.3

108.9

109.0

27

13-3

Tampa Bay

101.0

102.0

102.2

101.7

29

7-9

Atlanta

100.7

101.1

101.1

100.9

25.5

7-9

Carolina

91.9

91.7

91.8

91.8

26

5-11

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

107.3

108.0

108.2

107.8

26

13-3

LA Rams

104.4

103.5

103.8

103.9

26.5

9-7

Seattle

101.1

100.9

101.1

101.0

23.5

11-5

Arizona

96.2

96.4

97.1

96.6

24.5

5-10-1

December 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 17: December 29, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

13.8

13.6

14.0

Buffalo

N.Y. Jets

8.3

8.6

9.4

Carolina

New Orleans

-14.7

-13.4

-13.7

Cincinnati

Cleveland

-4.1

-4.5

-4.3

Dallas

Washington

16.0

15.4

15.5

Detroit

Green Bay

-7.2

-8.7

-9.2

Houston

Tennessee

1.4

1.7

1.7

Jacksonville

Indianapolis

-7.8

-8.5

-8.0

Kansas City

LA Chargers

9.2

10.2

10.9

Minnesota

Chicago

6.7

7.8

8.0

New England

Miami

21.7

22.0

21.6

N. Y. Giants

Philadelphia

-7.2

-5.7

-5.0

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

1.5

2.5

2.9

Denver

Oakland

7.1

7.6

7.3

LA Rams

Arizona

9.4

8.3

8.1

Seattle

San Francisco

-3.0

-3.9

-3.9

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

 

Home

Visitor

Total

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

44

Buffalo

N.Y. Jets

38

Carolina

New Orleans

53

Cincinnati

Cleveland

47.5

Dallas

Washington

41.5

Detroit

Green Bay

47.5

Houston

Tennessee

45

Jacksonville

Indianapolis

41

Kansas City

LA Chargers

51.5

Minnesota

Chicago

38.5

New England

Miami

48

N. Y. Giants

Philadelphia

49

Tampa Bay

Atlanta

55.5

Denver

Oakland

44.5

LA Rams

Arizona

51

Seattle

San Francisco

49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.0

108.7

108.2

108.3

19.5

12-3

Buffalo

102.0

103.0

103.0

102.7

17

10-5

N. Y. Jets

94.7

95.4

94.6

94.9

21

6-9

Miami

89.4

89.7

89.6

89.6

28.5

4-11

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.7

111.9

112.7

112.1

25

13-2

Pittsburgh

98.9

99.4

99.7

99.3

19

8-7

Cleveland

97.8

97.9

97.8

97.8

24

6-9

Cincinnati

92.7

92.4

92.5

92.5

23.5

1-14

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.2

102.7

102.7

102.6

23.5

10-5

Tennessee

101.8

102.0

102.0

101.9

21.5

8-7

Indianapolis

100.1

100.9

100.3

100.4

23

7-8

Jacksonville

91.3

91.4

91.3

91.3

18

5-10

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

107.0

107.7

107.7

107.5

29.5

11-4

LA Chargers

100.4

100.0

99.3

99.9

22

5-10

Denver

99.0

99.3

99.1

99.1

19

6-9

Oakland

92.8

92.7

92.8

92.8

25.5

7-8

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.2

104.3

103.9

104.1

22

7-8

Philadelphia

101.9

100.7

100.5

101.0

23.5

8-7

N.Y. Giants

93.7

94.0

94.4

94.0

25.5

4-11

Washington

91.3

91.9

91.4

91.5

19.5

3-12

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.8

105.7

105.8

106.1

21.5

10-5

Green Bay

103.8

103.8

104.2

103.9

24

12-3

Chicago

101.1

98.9

98.8

99.6

17

7-8

Detroit

95.0

93.6

93.5

94.1

23.5

3-11-1

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.7

107.2

107.7

107.9

27

12-3

Tampa Bay

101.1

102.3

102.6

102.0

29.5

7-8

Atlanta

100.6

100.8

100.7

100.7

26

6-9

Carolina

93.0

92.8

93.0

92.9

26

5-10

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

107.2

107.9

108.1

107.7

26

12-3

LA Rams

104.5

103.6

104.0

104.0

26.5

8-7

Seattle

101.2

101.0

101.2

101.1

23.5

11-4

Arizona

96.1

96.3

96.9

96.4

24.5

5-9-1

 

 

 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

 

NFC

If San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay all win, San Francisco is  the #1 seed, Green Bay the #2 seed, and New Orleans the #3 seed.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, then Green Bay will get #1 seed with win over Detroit.

If Seattle beats San Francisco, and Detroit beats Green Bay, then New Orleans gets #1 seed with a win over Carolina.

If Seatlle beats San Francisco, and Green Bay and New Orleans lose, Seattle gets the #1 seed.

Philadelphia wins the NFC East with a win over the Giants or a Dallas loss to Washington. Any ties in the standings would go to Dallas.

Minnesota is #6 seed regardless of week 17 results.

 

AFC

Houston has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC

New England clinches the #2 seed with a win over Miami or a Kansas City loss to the Chargers.

Houston can pass Kansas City for the #3 seed with a win over Tennessee and a loss by Kansas City.

Buffalo is the #5 seed regardless of week 17 results.

Tennessee wins the #6 seed if they beat Houston, or with a loss with Pittsburgh losing to Baltimore while both Oakland and Indianapolis do not win.

Pittsburgh wins the #6 seed only if they win and the Titans lose.

Oakland can clinch the #6 seed with a win over Denver, plus losses by Tennessee and Pittsburgh and Indianapolis beating Jacksonville.

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

 

What are the chances that the Oakland Raiders, in their last season playing in Oakland, could sneak into the NFL Playoffs?  It ranges from + or – 10-15% depending on which advanced metric expert you listen to.  We’re sabermetric experts that do not perform these type of metrics on pro football.

The way we look at things, Baltimore has nothing to gain this week against Pittsburgh in their season finale.  Their key players should play little or not at all.  Can the Steelers with poor quarterback play rise up and beat the Ravens’ reserves if they couldn’t beat the Jets last week?

Tennessee has now dropped two games in a row to playoff teams in Houston and New Orleans, both at home.  Houston may have a chance to move up to a #3 seed if Kansas City is upset earlier in the day.  

Oakland closes out regular season play at Denver, where the Broncos have nothing to play for in Week 17.

Indianapolis is playing solely to get to 8-8, while Jacksonville has nothing to play for in Week 17.

We think Oakland’s chances to sneak in as the final playoff team is considerably better than 15%.  In fact, just because it would make such a great story, we are going to select the Raiders as our 6th seed to set up a probably Oakland finale against their most hated rivals.

 

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Kansas City

4

Houston

5

Buffalo

6

Oakland

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Green Bay

2

New Orleans

3

Seattle

4

Philadelphia

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Oakland

Buffalo over Houston

Minnesota over Seattle

San Francisco over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Kansas City over New England

Green Bay over Minnesota

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

 

Conference Championship

Kansas City over Buffalo

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Super Bowl 54

New Orleans over Kansas City

 

 

December 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 16: December 21-23, 2019

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:33 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tampa Bay

Houston

2.2

3.4

4.1

New England

Buffalo

9.2

8.9

8.4

San Francisco

LA Rams

5.9

7.7

7.7

Atlanta

Jacksonville

11.8

11.9

11.9

Tennessee

New Orleans

-4.0

-1.9

-2.4

Washington

N. Y. Giants

0.7

1.2

0.5

N. Y. Jets

Pittsburgh

-2.7

-2.7

-4.2

Miami

Cincinnati

-1.2

-0.8

-1.2

Indianapolis

Carolina

5.7

6.7

5.9

Cleveland

Baltimore

-10.8

-10.6

-11.5

LA Chargers

Oakland

12.7

12.7

12.1

Denver

Detroit

6.7

8.5

8.2

Seattle

Arizona

12.1

11.6

11.3

Philadelphia

Dallas

-0.6

-2.2

-2.3

Chicago

Kansas City

0.1

-2.9

-2.8

Minnesota

Green Bay

9.6

8.5

8.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Tampa Bay

Houston

54

New England

Buffalo

36.5

San Francisco

LA Rams

51.5

Atlanta

Jacksonville

44

Tennessee

New Orleans

46.5

Washington

N. Y. Giants

43

N. Y. Jets

Pittsburgh

41

Miami

Cincinnati

50

Indianapolis

Carolina

49

Cleveland

Baltimore

49

LA Chargers

Oakland

47.5

Denver

Detroit

42.5

Seattle

Arizona

49

Philadelphia

Dallas

47.5

Chicago

Kansas City

47.5

Minnesota

Green Bay

46.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.1

108.8

108.3

108.4

19.5

11-3

Buffalo

101.9

102.9

102.9

102.6

17

10-4

N. Y. Jets

94.2

94.8

93.8

94.3

21.5

5-9

Miami

89.2

89.4

89.2

89.3

27.5

3-11

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.6

111.7

112.5

112.0

25

12-2

Pittsburgh

99.4

100.0

100.5

99.9

19.5

8-6

Cleveland

97.9

98.1

98.0

98.0

24

6-8

Cincinnati

92.9

92.7

92.9

92.8

22.5

1-13

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Tennessee

102.0

102.4

102.4

102.3

20.5

8-6

Houston

102.0

102.3

102.1

102.2

24

9-5

Indianapolis

97.9

98.7

98.1

98.2

23

6-8

Jacksonville

91.3

91.4

91.3

91.3

18

5-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

105.2

106.0

105.9

105.7

30

10-4

LA Chargers

102.0

101.7

101.1

101.6

22

5-9

Denver

98.9

99.2

98.9

99.0

19

5-9

Oakland

91.2

91.0

91.0

91.1

25.5

6-8

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

104.8

105.1

104.8

104.9

23

7-7

Philadelphia

101.3

99.9

99.6

100.2

24.5

7-7

N.Y. Giants

93.4

93.6

93.9

93.6

24.5

3-11

Washington

91.6

92.3

91.9

91.9

18.5

3-11

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

108.6

107.5

107.7

108.0

22

10-4

Green Bay

102.0

102.0

102.3

102.1

24.5

11-3

Chicago

102.9

100.6

100.6

101.4

17.5

7-7

Detroit

95.1

93.7

93.7

94.2

23.5

3-10-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

108.5

106.8

107.3

107.5

26

11-3

Tampa Bay

101.3

102.7

103.2

102.4

30

7-7

Atlanta

100.6

100.8

100.7

100.7

26

5-9

Carolina

95.2

95.0

95.2

95.1

26

5-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

107.3

108.1

108.4

107.9

25.5

11-3

LA Rams

104.4

103.4

103.7

103.8

26

8-6

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.2

103.1

24

11-3

Arizona

94.1

94.3

94.9

94.4

25

4-9-1

 

Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Kansas City

4

Houston

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

NFC Seeding

1

New Orleans

2

Seattle

3

Green Bay

4

Philadelphia

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Houston

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Philadelphia

 

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

New England over Kansas City

New Orleans over San Francisco

Seattle over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

Baltimore over New England

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Baltimore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 9, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

19.3

18.9

20.6

Detroit

Tampa Bay

1.2

-1.8

-2.0

Washington

Philadelphia

-6.6

-4.1

-4.0

Green Bay

Chicago

1.0

3.5

3.6

Cincinnati

New England

-12.2

-12.8

-11.9

Tennessee

Houston

4.0

4.3

4.7

Carolina

Seattle

-5.0

-5.0

-5.0

Kansas City

Denver

7.8

8.0

8.0

N. Y. Giants

Miami

5.7

5.5

5.8

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

5.3

5.7

5.2

Oakland

Jacksonville

4.1

4.0

4.3

Arizona

Cleveland

-3.9

-4.1

-3.6

San Francisco

Atlanta

13.7

14.5

15.3

Dallas

LA Rams

-1.5

-0.2

-1.2

LA Chargers

Minnesota

0.1

1.3

0.4

New Orleans

Indianapolis

11.2

8.3

9.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

45.5

Detroit

Tampa Bay

53.5

Washington

Philadelphia

42

Green Bay

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

New England

42

Tennessee

Houston

44.5

Carolina

Seattle

50

Kansas City

Denver

50

N. Y. Giants

Miami

52

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

37.5

Oakland

Jacksonville

43.5

Arizona

Cleveland

47

San Francisco

Atlanta

51.5

Dallas

LA Rams

47

LA Chargers

Minnesota

44

New Orleans

Indianapolis

50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

107.8

108.4

107.8

108.0

19.5

10-3

Buffalo

101.8

102.8

102.8

102.5

17.5

9-4

N. Y. Jets

94.5

95.1

94.1

94.6

21

5-8

Miami

89.7

90.0

89.9

89.9

27.5

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.3

111.4

112.2

111.7

24.5

11-2

Pittsburgh

99.5

100.1

100.6

100.0

20

8-5

Cleveland

99.2

99.5

99.5

99.4

23

6-7

Cincinnati

93.2

93.1

93.4

93.2

22.5

1-12

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Tennessee

102.5

103.0

103.1

102.9

20.5

8-5

Houston

101.5

101.7

101.4

101.6

24

8-5

Indianapolis

99.1

100.1

99.6

99.6

23.5

6-7

Jacksonville

90.7

90.7

90.5

90.6

18

4-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

104.4

105.1

104.9

104.8

30.5

9-4

LA Chargers

104.1

104.0

103.4

103.8

22

5-8

Denver

99.7

100.1

99.9

99.9

19.5

5-8

Oakland

91.8

91.7

91.8

91.8

25.5

6-7

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

102.6

102.9

102.4

102.6

22

6-7

Philadelphia

101.0

99.4

99.0

99.8

24

6-7

N.Y. Giants

92.9

93.0

93.2

93.0

24.5

2-11

Washington

91.9

92.8

92.5

92.4

18

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.5

105.2

105.4

105.7

22

9-4

Green Bay

101.7

101.8

102.0

101.8

24.5

10-3

Chicago

103.2

100.8

100.9

101.6

18

7-6

Detroit

97.3

95.8

95.9

96.4

23.5

3-9-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.3

105.4

105.8

106.2

26.5

10-3

Tampa Bay

99.1

100.6

101.0

100.2

30

6-7

Atlanta

98.6

98.7

98.4

98.5

26

4-9

Carolina

95.2

95.0

95.2

95.1

26

5-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

109.3

110.2

110.7

110.1

25.5

11-2

LA Rams

106.6

105.6

106.1

106.1

25

8-5

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.2

103.1

24

10-3

Arizona

92.8

92.9

93.4

93.0

24

3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFL Schedule Recommendation

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , — piratings @ 3:37 pm

The NFL has discussed contracting the number of games in the preseason, while possibly adding extra games to the regular season schedule and increasing the number of teams in the Playoffs.  Us PiRates here on the SS Buckaroo believe we can solve all the problems and make it a win-win for owners, players, and fans alike.  Here is our PiRate Principles for the NFL’s future.

  1. Reduce the number of preseason games from 4 to 2

  2. Make training camp 6 weeks long with preseason games during week 3 and week 4.  Then, teams can practice for another week after their second preseason game before making final cuts.

  3. Expand Rosters to 60 players with 3 active quarterbacks in that group of 60

  4. A practice or taxi squad of 7 players would be allowed.

  5. Expand the regular season to 17 games, with the extra game played at neutral sites.  This would allow teams to play in London, Toronto, and Mexico City without losing home games.  Other incredible venues where there is no pro football team could be Lincoln, NE, San Antonio, Iowa City, IA, Louisville, KY, Birmingham, AL, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Ann Arbor, MI, Columbus, OH, South Bend, IN, basically any 80,000 seat plus venue.  The Falcons and Titans could probably fill up Legion Field in Birmingham.  The Bears and Colts could definitely fill up Notre Dame’s stadium.

  6. This 17th game would be an inter-conference game.

  7. Make the playoffs a full 16 teams with the 4 division winners hosting the next 4 teams with winning records.  This could still be played out in four games like the wildcard and two division winners must play in both conferences.

Look for updated NFL Ratings Tuesday morning, including a plethora of what if playoff situations.

Our PiRate Bowl Coverage will publish Saturday, December 14, after the Army-Navy game has concluded.

December 2, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 14: December 5-9, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Chicago

Dallas

2.6

-0.6

-0.2

Atlanta

Carolina

3.3

3.5

2.8

Buffalo

Baltimore

-6.3

-5.3

-6.2

Cleveland

Cincinnati

8.0

8.4

8.1

Green Bay

Washington

13.6

13.0

13.7

Houston

Denver

8.1

8.0

8.1

Minnesota

Detroit

11.5

11.5

11.6

New Orleans

San Francisco

1.4

-1.4

-1.7

N. Y. Jets

Miami

8.5

8.8

8.1

Tampa Bay

Indianapolis

2.6

3.6

4.4

Jacksonville

LA Chargers

-4.3

-3.9

-3.5

Arizona

Pittsburgh

-3.6

-3.7

-3.6

New England

Kansas City

9.0

9.1

8.9

Oakland

Tennessee

-4.5

-5.2

-4.7

LA Rams

Seattle

4.2

3.0

3.1

Philadelphia

N. Y. Giants

12.1

10.4

9.7

 

Totals

 

Home

Visitor

Total

Chicago

Dallas

38

Atlanta

Carolina

51

Buffalo

Baltimore

42

Cleveland

Cincinnati

45.5

Green Bay

Washington

42.5

Houston

Denver

41

Minnesota

Detroit

47.5

New Orleans

San Francisco

49

N. Y. Jets

Miami

48.5

Tampa Bay

Indianapolis

51.5

Jacksonville

LA Chargers

39.5

Arizona

Pittsburgh

44

New England

Kansas City

51.5

Oakland

Tennessee

44

LA Rams

Seattle

50.5

Philadelphia

N. Y. Giants

49.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

108.9

109.6

109.1

109.2

20.5

10-2

Buffalo

101.8

102.9

102.8

102.5

17.5

9-3

N. Y. Jets

94.9

95.6

94.7

95.1

21

4-8

Miami

89.5

89.7

89.5

89.6

27.5

3-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.1

111.1

112.0

111.4

24.5

10-2

Pittsburgh

99.5

100.0

100.4

99.9

20

7-5

Cleveland

99.2

99.5

99.5

99.4

23

5-7

Cincinnati

93.2

93.1

93.4

93.2

22.5

1-11

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

103.1

103.4

103.2

103.3

23

8-4

Tennessee

100.9

101.4

101.3

101.2

19.5

7-5

Indianapolis

99.3

100.1

99.6

99.7

22.5

6-6

Jacksonville

93.6

93.8

93.6

93.7

18.5

4-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

102.9

103.5

103.2

103.2

31

8-4

LA Chargers

101.0

100.7

100.1

100.6

21

4-8

Denver

98.1

98.4

98.1

98.2

18

4-8

Oakland

93.4

93.3

93.6

93.4

24.5

6-6

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

103.3

103.9

103.5

103.6

21

6-6

Philadelphia

102.0

100.4

100.0

100.8

24.5

5-7

N.Y. Giants

91.9

92.0

92.2

92.0

25

2-10

Washington

91.4

92.2

91.8

91.8

18

3-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.4

105.0

105.2

105.6

23

8-4

Green Bay

102.0

102.2

102.5

102.2

24.5

9-3

Chicago

103.0

100.3

100.3

101.2

17

6-6

Detroit

97.4

96.0

96.1

96.5

24.5

3-8-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.4

105.5

105.8

106.2

25

10-2

Tampa Bay

98.9

100.6

101.0

100.2

29

5-7

Atlanta

97.5

97.5

97.1

97.3

25.5

3-9

Carolina

96.6

96.5

96.8

96.6

25.5

5-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

109.0

109.9

110.5

109.8

24

10-2

LA Rams

105.5

104.3

104.7

104.8

25.5

7-5

Seattle

104.3

104.3

104.6

104.4

25

10-2

Arizona

93.0

93.2

93.8

93.3

24

3-8-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Houston

4

Kansas City

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

Seattle

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Dallas

5

San Francisco

6

Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Green Bay over Minnesota

San Francisco over Dallas

 

 

Divisional Round

Buffalo over Baltimore

Houston over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Green Bay

 

 

Conference Championship

Houston over Buffalo

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Seattle over Houston

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 25, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 13: November 28-December 2, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Detroit

Chicago

-2.8

-1.2

-0.9

Dallas

Buffalo

8.4

7.9

8.0

Atlanta

New Orleans

-7.4

-5.1

-5.8

Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets

-2.5

-3.5

-2.4

Indianapolis

Tennessee

4.8

5.2

5.1

Miami

Philadelphia

-14.2

-12.4

-12.3

N.Y. Giants

Green Bay

-5.2

-5.0

-5.0

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

2.6

2.5

2.8

Carolina

Washington

10.9

10.1

11.0

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

0.7

-0.9

-1.2

Baltimore

San Francisco

6.3

5.4

6.1

Arizona

LA Rams

-5.5

-3.7

-3.3

Denver

LA Chargers

-0.1

0.3

0.6

Kansas City

Oakland

8.1

8.6

7.8

Houston

New England

-4.1

-4.7

-4.6

Seattle

Minnesota

-0.1

1.3

1.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Detroit

Chicago

41.5

Dallas

Buffalo

38.5

Atlanta

New Orleans

50.5

Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets

44.5

Indianapolis

Tennessee

41

Miami

Philadelphia

50

N.Y. Giants

Green Bay

50.5

Pittsburgh

Cleveland

44

Carolina

Washington

43.5

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

48.5

Baltimore

San Francisco

49.5

Arizona

LA Rams

49.5

Denver

LA Chargers

39

Kansas City

Oakland

55.5

Houston

New England

43.5

Seattle

Minnesota

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.4

110.2

109.8

109.8

20.5

10-1

Buffalo

100.0

101.1

100.8

100.6

17.5

8-3

N. Y. Jets

96.5

97.4

96.5

96.8

21.5

4-7

Miami

87.4

87.6

87.3

87.4

26.5

2-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.3

111.3

112.4

111.7

25

9-2

Cleveland

99.7

100.1

100.2

100.0

23.5

5-6

Pittsburgh

99.3

99.7

100.0

99.6

20.5

6-5

Cincinnati

91.6

91.3

91.6

91.5

23

0-11

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.3

102.5

102.2

102.4

23

7-4

Indianapolis

101.0

101.9

101.5

101.5

22

6-5

Tennessee

99.2

99.6

99.4

99.4

19

6-5

Jacksonville

95.5

95.7

95.6

95.6

19

4-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

100.7

101.2

100.8

100.9

31

7-4

LA Chargers

101.1

100.9

100.3

100.7

21

4-7

Denver

98.0

98.2

97.9

98.0

18

3-8

Oakland

95.6

95.6

96.0

95.7

24.5

6-5

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.4

106.0

105.8

105.7

21

6-5

Philadelphia

104.1

102.5

102.2

102.9

23.5

5-6

N.Y. Giants

93.1

93.3

93.6

93.3

25.5

2-9

Washington

89.7

90.4

89.9

90.0

18

2-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.9

105.5

105.8

106.1

23

8-3

Chicago

102.9

100.0

99.9

100.9

17

5-6

Green Bay

100.8

100.9

101.1

100.9

25

8-3

Detroit

97.5

96.3

96.5

96.8

24.5

3-7-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.4

105.3

105.6

106.1

25

9-2

Tampa Bay

97.3

99.0

99.3

98.5

29.5

4-7

Carolina

98.0

98.0

98.4

98.1

25.5

5-6

Atlanta

97.5

97.7

97.3

97.5

25.5

3-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

108.5

109.4

109.8

109.2

24.5

10-1

Seattle

103.8

103.8

104.0

103.9

25

9-2

LA Rams

103.5

102.1

102.4

102.7

25.5

6-5

Arizona

95.0

95.4

96.1

95.5

24

3-7-1

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Houston

4

Kansas City

5

Buffalo

6

Pittsburgh

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

New Orleans

3

Green Bay

4

Dallas

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

 

Wildcard Round

Houston over Pittsburgh

Buffalo over Kansas City

Minnesota over Green Bay

Seattle over Dallas

 

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore over Buffalo

Houston over New England

San Francisco over Minnesota

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

Baltimore over Houston

San Francisco over Seattle

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Baltimore over San Francisco

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 12: November 21-25, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Houston

Indianapolis

4.5

3.9

3.9

Cleveland

Miami

15.1

15.1

15.5

Buffalo

Denver

2.5

3.4

3.2

Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

-5.0

-5.6

-5.7

Chicago

N.Y. Giants

12.9

9.6

9.4

N.Y. Jets

Oakland

-1.0

-0.1

-1.8

New Orleans

Carolina

13.1

10.8

10.9

Atlanta

Tampa Bay

6.5

5.0

4.3

Washington

Detroit

-6.3

-4.3

-5.3

Tennessee

Jacksonville

4.0

4.1

3.5

New England

Dallas

7.1

7.5

7.5

San Francisco

Green Bay

5.4

6.2

6.2

Philadelphia

Seattle

5.5

3.9

3.4

LA Rams

Baltimore

1.4

0.1

-0.7

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Houston

Indianapolis

45

Cleveland

Miami

48.5

Buffalo

Denver

36

Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

44

Chicago

N.Y. Giants

43.5

N.Y. Jets

Oakland

46.5

New Orleans

Carolina

48.5

Atlanta

Tampa Bay

55

Washington

Detroit

43.5

Tennessee

Jacksonville

36

New England

Dallas

43

San Francisco

Green Bay

49.5

Philadelphia

Seattle

50.5

LA Rams

Baltimore

50.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

109.6

110.5

110.2

110.1

21

9-1

Buffalo

98.9

100.0

99.6

99.5

17.5

7-3

N. Y. Jets

93.3

94.2

93.1

93.5

21.5

3-7

Miami

87.5

87.8

87.5

87.6

26

2-8

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

108.1

108.1

109.2

108.5

25

8-2

Cleveland

99.6

99.9

100.0

99.8

22.5

4-6

Pittsburgh

99.2

99.6

99.9

99.5

20.5

5-5

Cincinnati

91.7

91.4

91.7

91.6

23.5

0-10

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Houston

102.4

102.6

102.3

102.5

23

6-4

Indianapolis

100.9

101.8

101.4

101.4

22

6-4

Tennessee

98.0

98.3

97.9

98.1

17.5

5-5

Jacksonville

97.0

97.3

97.4

97.2

18.5

4-6

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

100.4

100.9

100.5

100.6

31

7-4

LA Chargers

100.8

100.6

100.0

100.4

21

4-7

Denver

99.4

99.6

99.4

99.5

18.5

3-7

Oakland

97.3

97.3

97.9

97.5

25

6-4

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

105.5

106.0

105.7

105.7

22

6-4

Philadelphia

105.2

103.6

103.3

104.0

24.5

5-5

N.Y. Giants

92.8

93.1

93.3

93.1

26

2-8

Washington

89.5

90.2

89.6

89.8

18

1-9

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.6

105.2

105.5

105.8

23

8-3

Green Bay

103.6

103.7

104.0

103.8

25

8-2

Chicago

103.2

100.2

100.2

101.2

17.5

4-6

Detroit

98.7

97.5

97.8

98.0

25.5

3-6-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.9

105.7

106.1

106.6

24

8-2

Atlanta

99.3

99.5

99.1

99.3

25.5

3-7

Carolina

97.8

97.9

98.2

98.0

24.5

5-5

Tampa Bay

95.8

97.5

97.8

97.0

29.5

3-7

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

106.0

106.9

107.2

106.7

24.5

9-1

LA Rams

106.6

105.2

105.5

105.8

25.5

6-4

Seattle

102.7

102.7

102.9

102.8

26

8-2

Arizona

94.7

95.1

95.8

95.2

24

3-7-1

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding

1

Baltimore

2

New England

3

Indianapolis

4

Oakland

5

Buffalo

6

Kansas City

 

 

NFC Seeding

1

San Francisco

2

Green Bay

3

New Orleans

4

Dallas

5

Seattle

6

Minnesota

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Oakland over Buffalo

New Orleans over Minnesota

Seattle over Dallas

 

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Baltimore

Oakland over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

 

Conference Championship

Oakland over Kansas City

Green Bay over Seattle

 

 

Super Bowl 54

Oakland over Green Bay

 

 

 

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