The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 1, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Super Bowl LI: February 1, 2017

We present our Super Bowl LI preview a few days later than originally planned, but we decided that 100 computer simulations were not enough.  Over the last several days, we have visited the big bits and bytes to run numerous simulations on the big game.  We stopped at 10,000, the going rate among other simulators out there.

After running the first 100, we recorded the results to see how much different the results from 10,000 simulations.  What we found was that one metric definitely and consistently came through in both 100 and 10,000 sims that could be used by somebody unconcerned with losing a lot of their investment.  See below for the shocking revelation concerning this game and the Las Vegas Books.

Let’s get on with the data.

Super Bowl LI

Date: Sunday, February 5, 2017

Time: 6:30 PM EST

Place: Houston, TX

TV: Fox Sports

Radio: Westwood One

Find Your Affiliate Here

Online: Foxsports.com

AFC Champion: New England Patriots 16-2-0

NFC Champion: Atlanta Falcons 13-5-0

 

Las Vegas Info

Current Line (2/1/17 @ 10AM EST): New England by 3

Totals Line: 59

Money Line: New England -155, Atlanta +135

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: New England by 2.4

Mean: New England by 0.6

Bias: New England by 3.2

Average: New England by 2

Total: 60

 

10,000 Simulations

The winner when we simulated 100 times was the same as the winner when we simulated 10,000 times.  The average margin minimally changed between 100 and 10,000 sims.

The standard deviation went down a little with 10,000 sims, but that was to be expected with so many more sims.

What surprised us was the definite deviation between the Total Points and the Vegas Total, and it is so wide that we felt compelled to highlight this even though we BEG you not to bet on this game using our data and cannot stress enough that we bet $0 on sporting events.

 

Wins: New England 53.9%  Atlanta 46.1%

Percentage going to overtime: 0.87%

Average Score: New England 24.3  Atlanta 23.2  ***47.5 points***

St Deviation: 7.3 (almost 2 deviations difference in Vegas Total)

Outlier A: New England 34  Atlanta 7

Outlier B: Atlanta 29  New England 10

Percentage of outcomes under 59 total points: 87.78%

If you haven’t caught on, the computer simulator says that about 7 out of every 8 times these two teams would face off in Houston, the total score would be less than 59 points.

This disagrees with our own PiRate Rating expected total of 60, but our totals have been totally pitiful this year.  I would trust this simulator over our own ratings.

 

So, we would make the UNDER 59 our best advice for this game, but once again we beg, urge, and plead with you not to wager money using the information we supply to you.  We are in this just for fun.

January 17, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For NFL Conference Championships: January 22, 2017

SUNDAY, JANUARY 22, 2017

NFC Championship

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers

Time: 3:05 PM EST

TV: Fox Sports Network

Radio: Westwood One  

Find Your Local Westwoon One Affiliate at: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2 or 5 (changing rapidly)

Total: 61

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: Atlanta by 7.4

Mean: Atlanta by 8.2

Bias: Atlanta by 7.7

PiRate Total: 67

 

100 Simulations

Atlanta wins: 56

Green Bay wins: 44

Average Score: Atlanta 34  Green Bay 32

Outlier A: Atlanta 45  Green Bay 23

Outlier B: Green Bay 48  Atlanta 27

 

AFC Championship

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Time: 6:40 PM EST

TV: CBS

Radio: Westwood One  

Find Your Local Westwood One Affiliate at: http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

 

Line: New England by 5 1/2 or 6 (changing rapidly)

Total: 51

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads

PiRate: New England by 9.4

Mean: New England by 8.4

Bias: New England by 9.6

Total: 47

 

100 Simulations

New England wins 48

Pittsburgh wins 52

Average Score: New England 26  Pittsburgh 26

Outlier A: New England 41  Pittsburgh 20

Outlier B: Pittsburgh 24  New England 7

January 9, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Divisional Playoff Round: January 14-15, 2017

Saturday, January 14, 2017

Game 1: Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Time: 4:35 PM EST

TV: Fox

Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2

Total Line: 51

 

PiRate Rating: Atlanta by 6.5

Mean Rating: Atlanta by 9.0

Bias Rating: Atlanta by 6.1

PiRate Total: 56

 

100 Simulations

Atlanta wins 63

Seattle wins 37

Average Score: Atlanta 29  Seattle 24

Outlier A: Atlanta 37  Seattle 16

Outlier B: Seattle 24  Atlanta 9

 

Game 2: Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Time: 8:15 PM EST

TV: CBS

Vegas Line: New England by 16

Total Line: 45

 

PiRate Rating: New England by 17.8

Mean Rating: New England by 15.5

Bias Rating: New England by 19.5

PiRate Total: 45

 

100 Simulations

New England wins 96

Houston wins 4

Average Score: New England 37  Houston 17

Outlier A: New England 56  Houston 7

Outlier B: Houston 24  New England 20

 

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Game 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Time: 1:05 PM EST

TV: NBC

Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2

Total Line: 45 1/2

 

PiRate Rating: Kansas City by 2.9 

Mean Rating: Kansas City by 3.1

Bias Rating: Kansas City by 3.0

Total Line: 46

 

100 Simulations

Kansas City wins 53

Pittsburgh wins 47

Average Score: Kansas City 23  Pittsburgh 23 (KC 23.3 Pit 22.9)

Outlier A: Kansas City 27  Pittsburgh 10

Outlier B: Pittsburgh 34  Kansas City 13

 

Game 2: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Time: 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Vegas Line: Dallas by 4

Total Line: 52

 

PiRate Rating: Dallas by 2.7 

Mean Rating: Dallas by 3.5

Bias Rating: Dallas by 3.2

Total Line: 52

 

100 Simulations

Dallas wins 43

Green Bay wins 57

Average Score: Green Bay 33  Dallas 28

Outlier A: Dallas 34  Green Bay 20

Outlier B: Green Bay 38  Dallas 16

January 4, 2017

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 7-8, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:31 am

NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Oakland Raiders (12-4-0) at Houston Texans (9-7-0)

Saturday, January 7, 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2,

Totals Line: 36 1/2

Note: Raiders’ rookie QB Connor Cook will start

Texans expect to start Brock Osweiler at QB who will play at less than 100%

PiRate Spread: Houston by 2.7

Mean Spread: Houston by 3.0

Bias Spread: Houston by 1.8

Totals Spread: 46 points

100 Simulations

Houston wins 77

Oakland wins 23

Average score: Houston 23  Oakland 18

Outlier A: Houston 41  Oakland 13

Outlier B: Oakland 34  Houston 16

 

Detroit Lions (9-7-0) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, January 7, 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 8

Totals Line: 43

PiRate Spread: Seattle by 8.6

Mean Spread: Seattle by 6.9

Bias Spread: Seattle by 9.3

Totals Spread: 43 points

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 86

Detroit wins 14

Average Score: Seattle 26  Detroit 16

Outlier A: Seattle 42  Detroit 13

Outlier B: Detroit 27  Seattle 20

 

Miami Dolphins (10-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0)

Sunday, January 8, 1:05 PM EST

TV: CBS

Note: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is out for this game.  Matt Moore will start.

Las Vegas Spread: Pittsburgh by 10

Totals Spread: 47

PiRate Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.9

Mean Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.8

Bias Spread: Pittsburgh by 10.0

Totals Spread: 45 points

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins 73

Miami wins 27

Average Score: Pittsburgh 25  Miami 20

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 35  Miami 10

Outlier B: Miami 19  Pittsburgh 10

 

New York Giants (11-5-0) at Green Bay Packers (10-6-0)

Sunday, January 8, 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5

Totals Line: 44 1/2

PiRate Spread: Green Bay by 5.6

Mean Spread: Green Bay by 6.1

Bias Spread: Green Bay by 5.0

Totals Spread: 57 points

100 simulations

Green Bay wins 59

New York wins 41

Average Score: Green Bay 26  New York 24

Outlier A: Green Bay 31  New York 13

Outlier B: New York 30  Green Bay 17

December 27, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 17: January 1, 2017

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:46 am

Not Much Left To Be Decided
Week 16’s results greatly reduced the importance of the season’s final week. 10 of the 12 playoff spots have been earned already, and from the remaining spots left to be awarded, just three teams will vie for them.

AFC
We know that New England, Oakland, PIttsburgh, Houston, Kansas City, and Miami will be the six conference teams in the playoffs, but there is still some work to be done to determine the exact seeding. It is not that hard at this point.

New England holds the key to home field advantage to the Super Bowl. If the Patriots win this weekend against Miami, they secure the #1 seed. If Oakland loses to Denver, then the Pats also would get the top seed, win or lose.

Oakland can still earn the top seed if the Raiders (sans QB Derek Carr) beat Denver, and Miami beats New England. If Oakland and New England both win, the Raiders will be the #2 seed.

Pittsburgh has clinched the #3 seed and will host the #6 seed wildcard team, no matter what happens this weekend.

Houston has clinched the #4 seed and will host the #5 seed wildcard team, no matter what happens this weekend.

In the West, if Kansas City wins at San Diego, and Oakland loses to Denver, then the Chiefs will win the division, claim the #2 seed, and earn a bye to the divisional playoff round, while Oakland drops to the #5 seed.

If Kansas City and Oakland both win, then Oakland wins the division and first round bye, while KC becomes the #5 Seed. If Kansas City loses, and Miami wins over New England, then the Dolphins jump over KC for the #5 seed, pushing the Chiefs back to #6. A Chiefs win or Dolphins loss would leave Miami as the #6 seed.

NFC
Dallas has clinched the top seed overall and will enjoy a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. Their finale against Philadelphia is meaningless, so Tony Romo could get to see action this weekend.

The leader for the #2 seed and first round bye going into Week 17 is Atlanta. If the Falcons beat New Orleans, they clinch the bye. If Atlanta loses, and Seattle bests San Francisco, the Seahawks would then elevate to the #2 seed. Additionally, if thr Falcons lose, and Detroit beats Green Bay, Atlanta would fall to #4 seed, while the Lions jump to #3.

If both Seattle and Atlanta lose, and then Detroit beats Green Bay, the Lions would move into the #2 seed slot and earn a bye.

Green Bay cannot jump over Atlanta if the Packers beat the Lions, while Atlanta loses to New Orleans, regardless of what Seattle does. The Packers lose all tiebreakers to the Falcons.

As for the last two playoff spots, the Giants have clinched the #5 seed and their game with Washington is meaningless to them. However, it means everything to the Redskins. A Washington win to move to 9-6-1 puts the Redskins in the playoffs over the loser of the Green Bay-Detroit game. If Washington loses this game, then the loser of the Packers-Lions game would back into the #6 Seed.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 111.3 109.8 112.3 111.1 68 43
Buffalo 101.5 101.8 101.7 101.7 63 39
Miami 99.4 99.1 99.9 99.4 60 39
N. Y. Jets 92.3 91.8 92.4 92.2 57 35
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.2 104.9 105.7 105.3 63 42
Baltimore 101.0 101.8 100.9 101.2 61 40
Cincinnati 101.2 101.0 101.2 101.2 59 42
Cleveland 88.8 89.6 88.7 89.0 56 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 100.1 101.4 99.8 100.4 64 36
Houston 97.5 98.1 97.0 97.5 60 38
Tennessee 96.8 97.7 96.5 97.0 59 38
Jacksonville 95.1 96.1 94.9 95.4 60 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Kansas City 105.5 105.3 106.1 105.6 65 41
Oakland 102.2 102.7 102.9 102.6 67 36
Denver 102.6 102.1 101.8 102.1 60 42
San Diego 97.6 98.6 97.2 97.8 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 105.7 105.1 106.2 105.7 64 42
Washington 102.1 101.6 102.2 102.0 62 40
N.Y. Giants 100.0 99.4 100.3 99.9 62 38
Philadelphia 99.9 98.9 99.5 99.4 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 103.0 102.7 102.9 102.9 67 36
Minnesota 99.5 99.3 99.1 99.3 57 42
Detroit 99.3 99.1 99.0 99.1 61 38
Chicago 92.8 92.0 92.5 92.5 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 108.6 109.1 108.8 108.8 72 37
Carolina 101.5 101.5 101.6 101.5 60 42
New Orleans 101.1 101.6 101.5 101.4 68 33
Tampa Bay 101.3 101.4 101.4 101.4 63 38
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 105.1 103.2 105.5 104.6 63 42
Arizona 102.5 101.7 102.4 102.2 63 39
Los Angeles 92.9 93.7 92.3 93.0 54 39
San Francisco 89.1 90.0 88.6 89.2 55 34

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Atlanta New Orleans 10.5 10.5 10.3 70
Cincinnati Baltimore 2.2 1.2 2.3 38
Detroit Green Bay -0.7 -0.6 -0.9 54
Indianapolis Jacksonville 7.0 7.3 6.9 63
Miami New England -8.9 -7.7 -9.4 48
Minnesota Chicago 8.7 9.3 8.6 33
New York Jets Buffalo -8.2 -9.0 -8.3 47
Philadelphia Dallas -1.8 -2.2 -2.7 44
Pittsburgh Cleveland 17.4 16.3 18.0 45
Tampa Bay Carolina 0.8 0.9 0.8 44
Tennessee Houston 0.3 0.6 0.5 44
Washington New York Giants 5.1 5.2 4.9 46
Denver Oakland 3.4 2.4 1.9 47
Los Angeles Arizona -8.6 -7.0 -9.1 39
San Diego Kansas City -6.9 -5.7 -6.9 52
San Francisco Seattle -13.0 -10.2 -13.9 44

 

December 20, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 16: December 22-26, 2016

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:30 am

This Week’s Playoff Scenarios

There are still more than four billion playoff scenarios with just two weeks left in the season, so it is impossible to list every scenario left.  However, for most teams still in the race, their paths are for the most part clear.

AFC East

New England has clinched the division title and a bye to the Divisional Round.  The Patriots would clinch home field advantage and the top seed by winning out (vs. NYJ, @Mia) or by winning one game while Oakland loses one game or if Oakland loses both games.

 

Miami clinches a wildcard berth by winning one of its remaining two games (@Buf, vs. NE).  The Dolphins cannot make the playoffs at 9-7.

 

Buffalo’s slight chance of earning the #6 seed require the Bills to win twice (vs. Mia, @NYJ), a lot of other things to occur.  The computer lists Buffalo with about a 3% chance of making the playoffs.  Here is one scenario that works.

This Week: Jacksonville must beat Tennessee, Oakland must beat Indianapolis, Cincinnati must beat Houston, and Pittsburgh must beat Baltimore

Next Week: Cincinnati must beat Baltimore, New England must beat Miami, and Oakland must beat Denver

AFC North

Pittsburgh wins the division if they beat Baltimore this week at Heinz Field.  They can still win the division if they lose to Baltimore this week, and then Baltimore loses at Cincinnati while the Steelers defeat Cleveland in the final week.  The Steelers have numerous opportunities of earning a wildcard if they lose this week and win next week to finish 10-6 and very limited opportunities of earning a wildcard if they lose both remaining games.

 

Baltimore can win the division title by winning out or by beating Pittsburgh this week and then both the Steelers and Ravens lose their season finales.  The Ravens have limited possibilities of earning a wildcard if they lose to Pittsburgh and beat Cincinnati to finish 9-7.

 

AFC South

This is an interesting scenario.  As far as the division title goes, it does not matter what Houston does this week against Cincinnati.  In theory, they could rest their starters and lose to the Bengals and then would become division champs if they beat Tennessee in Week 17.  The Texans still have a very slim (less than 1 in 300 chance) of earning a wildcard if they win this week and lose next week, but it is so infinitesimally small, that Houston would be best served by concentrating all their efforts on the Titans.  Then, there is the opportunity to clinch the division this week should Jacksonville upset Tennessee.  The Texans will know the outcome of the Titans’ game before they play Cincinnati.

Tennessee must win out to win the division, or they must beat Houston next week if the Texans and Titans both lose this week.  However, under this scenario, the Titans can only win the division at 9-7 if Indianapolis loses one of its final two games.  The Titans have a slim wildcard chance, but it is a little better than the Texans’ wildcard chance.

 

Indianapolis can still win the division by winning out with Houston losing both of its final two games and Tennessee losing to Jacksonville.   The Colts still have a tiny wildcard shot if they win out.  That chance is smaller than Buffalo’s.

 

AFC West

Oakland must finish a game ahead of Kansas City to win the division.  Two Raider wins, and one Patriot loss would give the Raiders home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  One Oakland win guarantees a first round bye, but the Raiders can still clinch a bye with two losses if Pittsburgh loses a game.

Kansas City wins the division in any tie with Oakland.  The Chiefs would receive a first round bye if they finish with two wins, and Pittsburgh loses one game.  KC wins the wildcard unless they lose their final two games (vs. Den, @SD) and Baltimore wins out, while Pittsburgh and Miami both finish 10-6.

Denver has numerous possibilities in their route to the #6 seed.  The Broncos must win out (@KC, vs. Oak), and then need help from losses by Miami and Baltimore, or a monumental Cleveland upset of Pittsburgh.

NFC East

Dallas needs one win or one New York Giant loss to clinch the top seed and earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  If the Cowboys lose twice (@Phi, @Was), and Dallas loses twice (vs. Det, @Phi), and the Giants win twice, the Giants earn home field advantage and the top seed.

New York can still be eliminated with two losses and multiple other scenarios including Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Detroit finishing 10-6.

Washington is still alive and has a very good shot at a wildcard if they win out (@Chi, vs. NYG), and a very slim chance if they lose one of their last two.

 

NFC North

If Detroit beats Green Bay next week, the Lions win the division regardless of what happens in this weeks game at Dallas.  If Green Bay beats Detroit, then the Packers win the division if the two teams finished tied.  Both teams hold limited wildcard possibilities, with the Lions’ chances more than twice as strong.

 

Minnesota holds very slim wildcard hopes.  The Vikings must beat Green Bay and Chicago and then hope Tampa Bay loses out, Washington loses at least once, and Detroit beats Green Bay.

 

NFC South 

Atlanta and Tampa Bay are both looking good with the majority of scenarios placing both teams in the playoffs.  If Atlanta wins just one of its final two games, there are very few scenarios where the Falcons would be eliminated, and if Tampa Bay wins out, there are even fewer scenarios where they would be eliminated.  The Falcons can earn a bye by winning out to finish 11-5, if Seattle loses one of its final two games.

 

NFC West

Seattle has clinched the division and can clinch a first round bye if they win out.  They cannot clinch the number one seed, as only Dallas and the Giants are alive for the top spot.

 

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Miami
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Tampa Bay

PiRate Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Tennessee
5 Kansas City
6 Miami
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 New York
6 Tampa Bay

PiRate Playoff Projections Played Out

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Kansas City over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
N.Y. Giants over Detroit
 
Divisional Round
Oakland over Kansas City
New England over Pittsburgh
Dallas over Tampa Bay
N. Y. Giants over Seattle
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
N. Y. Giants over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
N. Y. Giants over Oakland

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.7 108.4 110.6 109.6 67 43
Buffalo 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.1 63 39
Miami 99.0 98.8 99.4 99.0 60 39
N. Y. Jets 93.9 93.2 94.1 93.7 57 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.9 105.9 105.4 63 42
Cincinnati 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.4 59 42
Baltimore 100.9 101.8 100.7 101.1 61 40
Cleveland 87.5 88.4 87.3 87.7 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 100.2 101.5 99.9 100.5 64 37
Tennessee 98.8 99.4 98.8 99.0 61 38
Houston 97.3 98.0 96.7 97.3 60 37
Jacksonville 93.1 94.4 92.6 93.4 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Kansas City 103.8 103.8 104.2 103.9 64 40
Denver 104.3 103.6 103.7 103.8 62 42
Oakland 102.1 102.6 102.8 102.5 67 36
San Diego 98.9 99.8 98.6 99.1 63 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.5 103.9 104.9 104.4 62 42
Washington 100.8 100.5 100.7 100.7 62 39
N.Y. Giants 100.2 99.6 100.6 100.1 62 38
Philadelphia 99.7 98.7 99.2 99.2 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 102.2 102.0 102.0 102.1 66 36
Detroit 100.5 100.3 100.3 100.4 61 39
Minnesota 100.3 100.0 100.0 100.1 57 43
Chicago 94.1 93.1 94.0 93.8 56 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 107.5 108.2 107.5 107.7 71 37
Carolina 102.6 102.4 102.9 102.6 60 43
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
New Orleans 100.9 101.4 101.3 101.2 68 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.1 104.0 106.7 105.6 63 43
Arizona 101.5 100.9 101.2 101.2 62 39
Los Angeles 93.7 94.4 93.2 93.8 54 40
San Francisco 88.3 89.3 87.7 88.4 54 34

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Philadelphia New York Giants 1.5 1.1 0.6 47
Buffalo Miami 5.9 6.3 5.8 47
Carolina Atlanta -2.4 -3.3 -2.1 51
Chicago Washington -4.2 -4.9 -4.2 43
Cleveland San Diego -8.4 -8.4 -8.3 51
Green Bay Minnesota 4.4 4.5 4.5 45
Jacksonville Tennessee -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 47
New England New York Jets 18.8 18.2 19.5 45
New Orleans Tampa Bay 2.4 2.8 2.7 60
Oakland Indianapolis 4.9 4.1 5.9 60
Los Angeles San Francisco 7.9 7.6 8.0 33
Seattle Arizona 7.6 6.1 8.5 45
Houston Cincinnati -1.1 -0.1 -1.8 40
Pittsburgh Baltimore 6.9 5.6 7.7 43
Kansas City Denver 2.5 3.2 3.5 45
Dallas Detroit 7.0 6.6 7.6 43

 

 

 

December 13, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 15: December 15-19, 2016

Three Week Sprint

With three weeks to go in the 2016 season, only Philadelphia, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, the NY Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and San Diego have been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  You can add New Orleans, Carolina, Arizona, Buffalo, and Cincinnati to the list that are not playoff bound this year, as these five teams need miracles to make the postseason.

That leaves 19 teams competing for 12 playoff spots.  Let’s take a look at each division.

AFC East

New England would have to lose three straight, while Miami wins three straight for the Dolphins to win the division.  Because one of those prospective Pats’ losses would have to be against the Jets, the chances become about the same as being hit by lightning on a sunny day.

Miami is in contention for the 6th seed with Denver, but as of today, the Broncos have the small advantage based on wins against common opponents.  Miami closes with games at the Jets and Bills and a home finale against New England.

Buffalo has a very slim chance of getting a wildcard bid.  The Bills must win out against Cleveland, Miami, and the Jets, and then they need a lot of help, definitely more than they can expect.  It looks like the longest playoff drought will extend to 17 seasons.

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh leads Baltimore by a game, but this race is still close to a tossup with three weeks to go.  The Ravens won at Pittsburgh earlier in the year, and the teams must still play in Baltimore in two weeks.  Both contenders must still play at Cincinnati, so there is an infinitesimal chance that the Bengals could win out at 8-7-1 and steal the division over 8-8 rivals.  For that to happen, Baltimore must beat Pittsburgh, and then the Steelers have to lose at home to Cleveland.

 

AFC South

This is the most interesting race in the NFL.  Three teams can still win this division, and the two that do not have little to no chance of winning a wildcard bid.  Houston and Tennessee are tied at 7-6, with Indianapolis a game back at 6-7.  The Texans have the easiest road to the finish line, as their schedule brings Jacksonville and Cincinnati to Reliant Stadium, before the Texans finish at Tennessee.

The Titans must travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Kansas City, and a loss in this game would mean that Houston would have to lose at home for Week 17 to matter.

Indianapolis can only win the division by finishing a game ahead of Houston and at least tied with Tennessee.  The Colts have the toughest remaining schedule of the three rivals (including road games against Minnesota and Oakland), so it looks like the Texans are prohibitive favorites for now.

 

AFC West

Kansas City now controls its own destiny for a bye in the playoffs and guaranteed home game in the Divisional Round.  The Chiefs still have a shot at securing home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

Oakland remains in contention for the division title, but for now, the Raiders look like the #5 seed.  They could still stumble into the 6th seed.

Denver has little room for error.  The Broncos are now tied with Miami and hold a precarious tiebreaker, but a 10-6 record could force the reigning Super Bowl Champions out of the playoffs.

 

NFC East

The Dallas Cowboys look unbeatable when the opponent does not have an “N” and a “Y” on their football helmets.  Big D still owns a two-game cushion for the top record in the NFC, but their next two games are going to be tough.  A hot Tampa Bay team comes to Jerryworld this week, followed by a visit from the number two team in the NFC, Detroit.  Losses in both games could allow the Lions to emerge as the #1 seed.

The New York Giants host the Lions this week in what could be the top game on the slate.  A Giant win actually gives Eli Manning and company a shot to win the Division and even earn the top seed, but more than likely this team will have to settle for the #5 seed.

Washington is still very much alive for a wildcard bid.  The Redskins must beat Carolina and Chicago the next two weeks before closing with the Giants.

 

NFC North

Detroit has a firm hold on this division with a two-game lead over Minnesota and Green Bay, but stranger things have happened before.  The Lions have a very tough closing troika of games and could lose any or all of them (@NYG, @Dal, vs. GB).

Should the Lions swoon in the stretch, Green Bay has a slim advantage over Minnesota, as the Packers still play the Lions, while the Vikings were swept by Detroit and can only take the division title if Detroit loses all three, and the Vikings win all three (which would include a win over Green Bay).  The chances are below average that this division will produce a wildcard team, but it is not impossible.

 

NFC South

Atlanta and Tampa Bay are locked in a fantastic finish for the division title, and the team that does not win the flag has a better than average chance of taking a wildcard spot.  If Carolina beats Atlanta, and then the Falcons and Buc finish 10-6, Tampa Bay would win the division.

 

NFC West

Seattle would have to lose its final three games, which includes dropping games to the Rams and 49ers, and Arizona would have to win its final three games, which includes winning at Seattle, for the Cardinals to surpass the Seahawks for the division title.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.0 107.8 109.8 108.9 67 42
Buffalo 101.8 102.0 102.1 102.0 63 39
Miami 97.4 97.6 97.6 97.5 59 39
N. Y. Jets 95.5 94.4 95.9 95.3 57 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.1 104.7 105.7 105.2 63 42
Cincinnati 101.6 101.3 101.7 101.6 60 42
Baltimore 100.9 101.9 100.8 101.2 61 40
Cleveland 87.6 88.5 87.4 87.8 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Tennessee 98.4 99.2 98.2 98.6 61 38
Indianapolis 97.9 99.5 97.4 98.3 62 36
Houston 97.5 98.2 96.9 97.5 61 37
Jacksonville 92.9 94.2 92.4 93.2 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.0 104.2 104.5 104.5 63 42
Kansas City 104.2 104.0 104.8 104.3 64 40
Oakland 102.1 102.6 102.8 102.5 67 36
San Diego 98.9 99.8 98.6 99.1 63 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.5 103.9 104.9 104.4 62 42
Washington 101.9 101.5 102.0 101.8 63 39
N.Y. Giants 99.6 99.1 99.9 99.5 62 38
Philadelphia 99.7 98.6 99.1 99.1 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.6 102.0 102.5 102.4 59 43
Green Bay 102.3 102.1 102.2 102.2 66 36
Detroit 101.1 100.8 101.0 101.0 62 39
Chicago 94.0 93.0 93.8 93.6 56 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 107.2 107.9 107.2 107.4 71 36
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
Carolina 101.5 101.4 101.6 101.5 60 42
New Orleans 100.1 100.9 100.3 100.4 67 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 105.8 103.6 106.3 105.2 62 43
Arizona 102.3 101.4 102.2 102.0 63 39
Los Angeles 94.0 94.8 93.6 94.2 54 40
San Francisco 88.6 89.6 88.0 88.7 54 35

This Week’s PiRate Spreads & Totals

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Seattle Los Angeles 14.8 11.8 15.7 34
New York Jets Miami 0.6 -0.7 0.8 40
Baltimore Philadelphia 3.2 5.3 3.7 44
Buffalo Cleveland 16.7 16.0 17.2 48
Chicago Green Bay -5.8 -6.6 -5.9 50
Dallas Tampa Bay 6.0 5.3 6.3 46
Houston Jacksonville 7.6 7.0 7.5 49
Kansas City Tennessee 8.8 7.8 9.6 49
Minnesota Indianapolis 7.7 5.5 8.1 44
New York Giants Detroit 1.5 0.3 1.9 49
Arizona New Orleans 5.2 3.5 4.9 60
Atlanta San Francisco 21.6 21.3 22.2 56
Denver New England -1.0 -0.6 -2.3 48
San Diego Oakland -0.7 -0.3 -1.7 60
Cincinnati Pittsburgh -1.0 -0.9 -1.5 41
Washington Carolina 2.9 2.6 2.9 44

 

December 6, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 14: December 8-12, 2016

Week 13 begins the final stretch in the NFL, as the 32 teams are all on the same closing schedule with 12 games played and four to go.  The Flex Scheduling has kicked in, and it becomes time to look at tiebreakers with competing teams.

If you want to take a look at the lengthy tiebreaker rules, you can find them at the NFL’s webpage at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures.

Here is a look at who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

AFC
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Tampa Bay

Of course, the season does not end today, and our new projections show some changes in the rankings above, especially in the AFC West, where Oakland faces a difficult closing stretch, and Kansas City has a somewhat easier road in the final four games.

Our Projected Playoffs

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Pittsburgh
4 Indianapolis
5 Oakland
6 Denver
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Tampa Bay
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

And, our projected playoff outcomes for this week

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Denver
Oakland over Indianapolis
Detroit over Washington
N. Y. Giants over Tampa Bay
 
Divisional Round
New England over Oakland
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Dallas over N. Y. Giants
Seattle over Detroit
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Seattle over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
Seattle over Kansas City

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.1 107.9 110.0 109.0 67 42
Buffalo 102.1 102.3 102.4 102.3 63 39
Miami 97.0 97.4 97.1 97.1 59 38
N. Y. Jets 95.6 94.5 96.0 95.4 57 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 104.8 104.4 105.4 104.9 63 42
Cincinnati 101.5 101.2 101.7 101.5 60 42
Baltimore 100.8 101.8 100.6 101.1 61 40
Cleveland 87.7 88.6 87.4 87.9 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 98.4 99.9 98.0 98.8 62 37
Tennessee 97.8 98.9 97.5 98.1 61 37
Houston 97.0 97.8 96.3 97.0 61 36
Jacksonville 93.1 94.5 92.7 93.4 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.5 105.2 105.1 63 42
Kansas City 104.0 103.8 104.5 104.1 64 40
Oakland 102.3 102.8 103.1 102.7 67 36
San Diego 99.3 100.1 99.1 99.5 64 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.9 104.2 105.5 104.9 63 42
Washington 101.6 101.3 101.6 101.5 63 39
Philadelphia 100.0 98.8 99.5 99.4 60 39
N.Y. Giants 99.2 98.8 99.3 99.1 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.4 101.7 102.2 102.1 59 43
Detroit 101.4 101.1 101.3 101.3 62 39
Green Bay 99.8 99.6 99.7 99.7 64 36
Chicago 93.7 92.7 93.5 93.3 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 104.7 105.4 104.7 104.9 70 35
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
Carolina 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 60 41
New Orleans 100.1 100.9 100.3 100.4 67 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 108.3 106.1 108.8 107.7 63 45
Arizona 102.7 101.6 102.7 102.3 63 39
Los Angeles 96.5 97.3 96.1 96.7 55 42
San Francisco 88.5 89.5 87.9 88.6 54 35

This Week’s NBA Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Kansas City Oakland 4.7 4.0 4.4 57
Buffalo Pittsburgh -0.2 0.4 -0.5 46
Carolina San Diego 4.8 4.0 5.0 45
Cleveland Cincinnati -11.8 -10.6 -12.3 41
Detroit Chicago 10.2 10.9 10.3 40
Indianapolis Houston 4.4 5.1 4.7 51
Jacksonville Minnesota -6.3 -4.2 -6.5 38
Miami Arizona -2.7 -1.2 -2.6 47
Philadelphia Washington 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 47
Tampa Bay New Orleans 4.4 3.7 4.3 59
Tennessee Denver -4.8 -2.6 -4.7 47
San Francisco New York Jets -4.1 -2.0 -5.1 38
Green Bay Seattle -5.5 -3.5 -6.1 48
Los Angeles Atlanta -5.2 -5.1 -5.6 48
New York Giants Dallas -2.7 -2.4 -3.2 48
New England Baltimore 10.3 9.1 12.4 48

 

 

 

November 29, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 13: December 1-5, 2016

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.1 107.8 109.9 108.9 67 42
Buffalo 103.4 103.5 103.8 103.6 64 40
Miami 98.5 98.9 98.6 98.6 60 39
N. Y. Jets 98.1 97.0 98.5 97.9 58 40
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 104.5 104.1 105.1 104.6 63 42
Cincinnati 100.4 100.2 100.5 100.4 59 41
Baltimore 99.2 100.2 99.0 99.5 61 39
Cleveland 87.7 88.6 87.4 87.9 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Tennessee 97.8 98.9 97.5 98.1 61 37
Houston 97.5 98.3 96.9 97.6 61 37
Indianapolis 96.7 98.2 96.3 97.1 60 37
Jacksonville 93.2 94.7 92.7 93.5 59 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.4 104.2 105.1 104.9 63 42
Kansas City 103.6 103.4 104.0 103.7 64 40
Oakland 100.5 101.1 101.2 100.9 66 35
San Diego 100.3 101.0 100.2 100.5 65 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.1 103.4 104.7 104.1 63 41
Washington 101.9 101.6 102.0 101.8 63 39
Philadelphia 101.3 100.0 100.9 100.7 62 39
N.Y. Giants 99.4 99.0 99.5 99.3 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.6 101.9 102.4 102.3 59 43
Green Bay 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.4 64 35
Detroit 99.3 99.0 99.2 99.2 61 38
Chicago 93.0 92.0 92.6 92.6 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 105.0 105.7 105.1 105.2 70 35
Carolina 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.8 62 41
New Orleans 101.8 102.6 102.0 102.1 68 34
Tampa Bay 100.1 100.3 100.1 100.2 62 38
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.6 104.4 107.1 106.0 62 44
Arizona 102.4 101.3 102.3 102.0 63 39
Los Angeles 96.8 97.7 96.5 97.0 55 42
San Francisco 90.0 91.0 89.6 90.2 54 36

This Week’s Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Minnesota Dallas 1.5 1.5 0.7 40
Atlanta Kansas City 4.4 5.3 4.1 61
Baltimore Miami 3.7 4.3 3.4 45
Chicago San Francisco 6.0 4.0 6.0 39
Cincinnati Philadelphia 2.1 3.2 2.6 43
Green Bay Houston 5.0 4.0 5.4 55
Jacksonville Denver -9.2 -6.5 -9.4 47
New England Los Angeles 15.3 13.1 14.4 40
New Orleans Detroit 5.5 6.6 5.8 59
Oakland Buffalo 0.1 0.6 0.4 57
Arizona Washington 3.5 2.7 3.3 50
Pittsburgh New York Giants 7.6 7.6 8.1 48
San Diego Tampa Bay 3.2 3.7 3.1 55
Seattle Carolina 6.8 4.6 7.3 41
New York Jets Indianapolis 3.9 1.3 4.7 43

 

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Miami
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

 

PiRate Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Indianapolis
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Minnesota
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

 

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Pittsburgh over Denver
Atlanta over Washington
N.Y. Giants over Minnesota
 
Divisional Round
Oakland over Kansas City
New England over Pittsburgh
Dallas over N.Y. Giants
Seattle over Atlanta
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
Dallas over Seattle
 
Super Bowl 51
Oakland over Dallas

 

November 22, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 12: November 24-28, 2016

The Best Thanksgiving Day Football Season Ever

The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys have been Thanksgiving Day fixtures in the NFL annual scheduling, and there have been some mighty exciting turkey day games as well as some outright turkeys.

In all the years of Thanksgiving Day football, one year stands out as the best ever.  It was November 25, 1971, and on that day, the four NFL teams involved were all in tight races for playoff spots.

Detroit hosted Kansas City in the early game.  The Lions were 6-3-1, chasing Minnesota but ahead of Washington for the lone NFC Wildcard spot.  Kansas City was a game behind Oakland but the leader in the Wildcard race of the AFC.  The Lions won that day to move to 7-3-1, dropping the Chiefs to 7-3-1.  KC would win out to beat out Oakland, while Detroit would drop its final three to finish 7-6-1 and out of the playoffs.

In the afternoon game, Dallas hosted the Los Angeles Rams.  The 7-3 Cowboys had won three in a row once Coach Tom Landry inserted Roger Staubach as full-time starter.  The Rams were trying to keep pace with the division leading San Francisco 49ers, and the winner of this game would be in great shape to make the playoffs.  Dallas emerged victorious to run its winning streak to four and would keep winning every week until they had their first Super Bowl title.  The Rams would miss out on the playoffs by one game.

We have yet to provide the icing on the cake for why 11/25/71 was the best ever Thanksgiving Day for football fans.  It was the college game that made this date so special.  Undefeated and #1 Nebraska played undefeated and #2 Oklahoma with the winner almost assured of facing the winner of #3 Alabama and #4 Auburn in the Orange Bowl.  It has been called the greatest college football game ever, and you can find most or all of it online with a Youtube search.

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.3 108.0 110.1 109.1 67 42
Buffalo 103.6 103.7 104.1 103.8 64 40
Miami 98.7 99.0 98.9 98.8 60 39
N. Y. Jets 97.9 96.8 98.3 97.7 58 40
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 102.9 102.8 103.4 103.0 62 41
Cincinnati 100.6 100.3 100.8 100.6 60 41
Baltimore 99.0 100.1 98.7 99.3 61 38
Cleveland 87.9 88.8 87.6 88.1 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 98.3 99.5 98.0 98.6 62 37
Houston 98.0 98.7 97.5 98.1 61 37
Tennessee 97.5 98.8 97.1 97.8 61 37
Jacksonville 93.0 94.5 92.4 93.3 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.8 104.5 105.5 105.2 63 42
Kansas City 103.2 103.1 103.6 103.3 63 40
Oakland 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8 66 35
San Diego 99.8 100.6 99.6 100.0 65 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.1 103.4 104.7 104.1 63 41
Philadelphia 103.3 101.7 103.1 102.7 63 40
Washington 101.9 101.6 102.0 101.8 63 39
N.Y. Giants 99.2 98.8 99.3 99.1 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.8 102.0 102.7 102.5 60 43
Detroit 99.1 98.9 98.9 99.0 61 38
Green Bay 97.5 97.6 97.1 97.4 62 35
Chicago 93.3 92.1 93.0 92.8 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.7 104.7 103.7 104.0 69 35
Carolina 102.9 102.9 102.9 102.9 62 41
New Orleans 100.4 101.4 100.5 100.8 67 34
Tampa Bay 98.6 99.1 98.4 98.7 62 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 108.1 105.6 108.8 107.5 64 44
Arizona 103.7 102.3 103.7 103.2 64 39
Los Angeles 98.2 98.9 98.0 98.4 56 42
San Francisco 89.8 90.9 89.3 90.0 54 36

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Detroit Minnesota -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 42
Dallas Washington 5.2 4.8 5.7 48
Indianapolis Pittsburgh -1.6 -0.3 -2.4 48
Atlanta Arizona 3.5 5.9 3.5 51
Baltimore Cincinnati 0.9 2.3 0.4 44
Buffalo Jacksonville 13.6 12.2 14.7 49
Chicago Tennessee -1.2 -3.7 -1.1 45
Cleveland New York Giants -8.8 -7.5 -9.2 49
Houston San Diego 1.2 1.1 0.9 56
Miami San Francisco 12.4 11.6 13.1 41
New Orleans Los Angeles 5.2 5.5 5.5 48
Tampa Bay Seattle -6.0 -3.0 -6.9 47
Denver Kansas City 5.6 4.4 4.9 46
Oakland Carolina 0.5 1.1 1.2 54
New York Jets New England -8.9 -8.7 -9.3 45
Philadelphia Green Bay 8.8 7.1 9.0 52

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Houston
4 Baltimore
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

PiRate Ratings Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Indianapolis
4 Baltimore
5 Denver
6 Kansas City
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 Washington
6 N.Y. Giants

 

Wildcard Round
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Baltimore over Denver
New York Giants over Detroit
Washington over Atlanta
 
Divisional Round
New England over Kansas City
Oakland over Baltimore
Dallas over New York Giants
Seattle over Washington
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
Seattle over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
Seattle over Oakland

 

 

 

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