The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 9-15, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:47 am

We’ve read your comments.  A couple dozen came in over the weekend telling us to defer to the Land Sharps.  Yes, all five of our guest selectors now have winning records for the season.  You heard that right.  Very few amateur handicappers can sustain a winning record against the spread plus the vigorish over the course of a couple of weeks, yet all five of our Land Sharps have done so after 6 weeks of the season.

As for your official PiRate picks, don’t ask.  We are suffering through a malaise, so by popular demand, we will present the Land Sharp picks first and then follow with our ridiculous 25 selections for the week.  We are going to just toss all the darts at once and hope 13 or more stick to the board.

You may notice that we are presenting this feature a day early this week.  There is a valid reason.  There is a Tuesday night college game, and one Sharp selected it.

This Week’s Sharps’ Selections

Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 22-11 66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 30.0%

Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU

 

Buckeye Michelle

Season: 16-8-1  66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 28.8%

Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC
UTSA +13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
South Carolina +3 vs. Texas A&M
Kansas St. +7 vs. Oklahoma St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Season: 15-9-1  62.5% vs. the Spread with ROI of 20.4%

Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. UNC
Fresno State -19 vs. Wyoming
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Utah State -24 vs. UNLV
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska

 

Stewed Meat

Season: 16-13  55.2% vs. the Spread with ROI of 5.9%

Arkansas St. +10 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn
Arizona +14 vs. Utah
Georgia -7 vs. LSU
Oregon +3 1/2 vs. Washington
Baylor +14 1/2 vs. Texas
Illinois +10 1/2 vs. Purdue
Central Florida -4 1/2 vs. Memphis
New Mexico Pk. vs. Colorado St.

 

Dean615

Season: 10-9  52.6% vs. the Spread with ROI of 0.5%

Notre Dame -20 1/2 vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa -4 1/2 vs. Indiana
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Texas Tech +7 1/2 vs. TCU
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn

 

The Official PiRate Ratings Selections

We are going with an astronomical 25 selections this week, because we keep choosing about 7 each week out of 25 that we like, and we keep choosing the wrong 7.  So, we are going with every selection we liked, since so many we didn’t choose in recent weeks were winners.

Picks vs. the Spread

Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Coastal Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UL-Monroe
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska
Washington -3 vs. Oregon
Penn St. -13 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
Army -14 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Georgia Southern -16 1/2 vs. Texas St.
UTSA + 13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC

10-point Teasers

All 3-game parlays at 11-10

Alabama -18 vs. Missouri
Tennessee +26 1/2 vs. Auburn
Hawaii +24 1/2 vs. BYU

Boston College -3 1/2 vs. Louisville
New Mexico +11 1/2 vs. Colorado St.
Eastern Michigan +11 1/2 vs. Toledo

Duke +12 vs. Georgia Tech
Iowa St. +17 vs. West Virginia
Georgia +3 vs. LSU

Maryland -14 vs. Rutgers
Miami (O) -1/2 vs. Kent St.
Northwestern +6 vs. Nebraska

Ohio St. -19 1/2 vs. Minnesota
UAB -6 vs. Rice
San Diego St.  Pk vs. Air Force

Army -4 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Texas A&M +8 vs. South Carolina
Texas -4 vs. Baylor

Arizona +24 vs. Utah
Florida +3 vs. Vanderbilt
Miami (Fla.) +4 vs. Virginia

 

Money Line Parlays

@ +191 $100 invested would return $291 with a win

Northwestern over Nebraska  
UAB over Rice  
South Florida over Tulsa 
Boston College over Louisville 

 

@+175 $100 invested would return $275 with a win

Central Florida over Memphis
San Diego St. over Air Force 
Buffalo over Akron 
Texas over Baylor

 

@+151 $100 invested would return $251 with a win

Florida over Vanderbilt 
Western Michigan over Bowling Green 
Georgia over LSU  
Army over San Jose St.

 

NFL 10-point Teasers 
(Totals) @11-10 3-game parlays
Team Team Total Pick
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 34 Over
Arizona Minnesota 33 Over
Carolina Washington 35 Over
Team Team Total Pick
Indianapolis N.Y. Jets 35 Over
Cincinnati Pittsburgh 63 Under
L.A. Chargers Cleveland 33.5 Over
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Miami 32 Over
Jacksonville Dallas 30 Over
San Francisco Green Bay 36 Over

 

NOTE: All wagers are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  These are imaginary currencies invested in imaginary books.  We do not bet on these games.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, these are not the actual picks Stewed has invested real currency at a real book in Nevada. 

Stewed is fortunate enough to receive the “Outlaw Line” before the Opening Line is issued.  Stewed’s real strategy is to isolate odds that are off by at least 3 points and then play both sides of the key games. 

For instance, if Team A is a 14 1/2 point favorite on the late Saturday night Outlaw Line, and Stewed believes the true spread should be 11, Stewed will put a 5-figure wager on Team B at +14 1/2.  Then, after the opening line is listed at 12 because Stewed and other Sharps knew better, and then when the line lowers to 11 because many in the general public also think they know better, Stewed wagers the same 5-figure amount on Team A at -11. 

If the actual game score comes in at 12, 13, or 14 (three very frequent game spreads), Stewed wins both wagers and makes a lot of profit.  Otherwise, Stewed will win one of the two wagers, unless the spread is exactly 11 points, in which Stewed wins one wager and pushes on the other.  All Stewed needs to do to turn a profit is to have a game come between the two spreads 1 out of every 19 games.  This is wagering with a margin of safety that none of the rest of us amateurs can do.

Advertisements

October 3, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 4-8, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:44 am

Another mediocre week by the PiRate Rating selections was offset by another spectacular week by three of our five Land Sharps.

Last week, our official picks went 4-7, to bring the total to date to 22-23-1.  This took our minor profit for the season to a minor loss of 5.7% Return on Investment.  We will include some Money Line parlays that give us better than +150 odds this week in an attempt to get back into the black.  In the past, we have done well when playing 4-game parlays that give us better than +150 odds, but we tend to cash in big on these parlays in November.  Hopefully, October will be nice to us.

As for the Land Sharps, Buckeye Michelle, Friday Dog 13, and Cal Gal Tiffany continue to draw the ire of the kind people in the State of Nevada.  If they keep up this streak, they will not be allowed to patronize the books (Note–every pick on this site is done strictly for entertainment purposes only, so they really have no connection with any books).

Dean615 and Stewed Meat have treaded water so far, as both as exactly .500 in their picks.  In Stewed’s defense, these are this Land Sharp’s “B” picks.  Stewed is a real professional, and Stewed A’s picks last week (college and NFL) went 8-3 including a Parlay win that returned 6 to 1 odds for a big profit.

This week, our Land Sharps have picked between 5 and 9 games.  Because we try not to do the same thing, and we include the NFL in our official picks, we are going with 9 selections–3 vs. spreads, 4, 10-point teasers, and 2 Money Line Parlays.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks 

Margins

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Akron Miami (O) 3 Akron
Baltimore Cleveland 3 Baltimore
San Francisco Arizona 3.5 San Francisco

10-Point Teasers (3-team parlays)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Louisville Georgia Tech 6.5 Georgia Tech
Boston College North Carolina St. 5.5 North Carolina St.
LSU Florida 13 Florida

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Alabama Arkansas 24 Alabama
Clemson Wake Forest 7.5 Clemson
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 2.5 Miami (Fla.)

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
South Florida Massachusetts 4 South Florida
Georgia Southern South Alabama 3.5 Georgia Southern
Ole Miss Louisiana-Monroe 2.5 Ole Miss

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Central Florida SMU 14 Central Florida
Washington St. Oregon St. 6.5 Washington St.
Fresno St. Nevada 2 Fresno St.

 

Money Line Parlays

4 Teams at +168

Winner Loser
North Carolina St. Boston College
Troy Georgia St.
UNLV New Mexico
Miami (Fla.) Florida St.

 

4 Teams at +174

Winner Loser
Liberty New Mexico St.
South Florida Massachusetts
Buffalo Central Michigan
Georgia Southern South Alabama

 

The Land Sharps

Buckeye Michelle

Year to Date: 14-6  70.0%, 37.0% Return on Investment

Connecticut +36 vs. Memphis

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

Minnesota +7.5 vs. Iowa

Air Force +3.5 vs. Navy

UAB +9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Friday Dog 13

Year to Date: 11-5 68.8%, 34.4% Return on Investment

Marshall -6 vs. Middle Tennessee

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Ole Miss -22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

West Virginia -28.5 vs. Kansas

Central Florida -24 vs. SMU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

South Florida -4 vs. Massachusetts

Syracuse -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

Year to Date: 17-9  65.4%, 27.3% Return on Investment

Utah St. +3 vs. BYU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida

Florida St. +13 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Southern -13.5 vs. South Alabama

Auburn -3 vs. Mississippi St.

Georgia -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Stewed Meat

Year to Date: 11-11  50.0%, -5% Return on Investment

Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Louisville

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

Florida +3 vs. LSU

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Colorado -2.5 vs. Arizona St.

Houston & Tulsa UNDER 70.5

Michigan & Maryland UNDER 49

 

Dean615

Year to Date: 7-7  50.0%, -5.0% Return on Investment

Notre Dame -6 vs. Virginia Tech

Wisconsin -17.5 vs. Nebraska

Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Kentucky

Florida & LSU UNDER 44.5

Notre Dame & Virginia Tech OVER 56.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 13-17, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:56 pm

We received a lot of comments last week from regular readers to this site that know how to contact us through another site.  We tend to keep our comments sections closed, because it becomes a task to monitor it for stuff that does not need to appear here.

The comments had nothing to do with our own picks last week.  We introduced five guest pickers, three of them members of the fairer sex, and overall, they had quite a successful week.

By far the overwhelming amount of responses were aimed at Buckeye Michelle.  The Ohio Transplant to the Sunny South merely went 5-0 picking 5 underdogs, and we received all kinds of comments pertaining to her, including a couple of marriage proposals.

Friday Dog 13 went 3-0 picking three prohibitive favorites that won by even larger scores than the line they were asked to cover.

Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2 in her seven picks, again, a very successful week that equates to a 56% Return on Investment.

Stewed Meat narrowly missed having a winning week, as Stewed went 2-3.  Bringing up the rear at 1-2 was Dean 615.

What about our own picks?  We suffered a lot of near misses and finished the week losing $90 imaginary after wagering $1,100 and going 5-6.  For the years, after two weeks, we are down $220 on a total of $1,700 wagered in our pretend bank account, so we are off to a bad year so far.

Just remember, all the picks you receive here this week and every week are free, and you should consider them worth exactly what you pay for them.

First, here are the PiRate’s official selections for the week.

Straight Spreads and Totals Selections–7

Favorite Underdog Spread/Total Pick
Army Hawaii           6 Army
Baylor Duke          6.5 Duke
Minnesota Miami (Ohio)          13 Minnesota
Denver Oakland          46 Under
Washington Indianapolis          47 Under
Cincinnati Baltimore           1 Baltimore
Dallas N.Y. Giants           3 Dallas

10-point Teaser Parlays–2

If you are unfamiliar with 10-point teasers, you can move the line by 10 points in your favor and play at less favorable odds than if you wager a straight wager against the spread or total.  By combining more than one game into a parlay, you can adjust the odds.  A 10-point teaser using three games makes the odds the same as wagering a straight wager.  You put up $11 of your money against $10 of the books, or what is referred to as -110 (You wager $110 versus the book wagering $100).

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Florida Colorado St. 31 Colorado St.
Texas USC 13.5 USC
Boston College Wake Forest 15 Wake Forest

 

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indiana Ball St. 4 Indiana
Penn St. Kent St. 24.5 Penn St.
Wisconsin BYU 11 Wisconsin

The Land Sharps

Now for our special sharps–our 5 guest pickers.  They have been tasked with selecting 3, 5, 7, or 9 college games each week.  None of the 5 know what the other 4 are picking, so in some cases, more than one guest is picking the same game, and even though it did not happen this week, we are sure that at some point, they could be on opposite sides of the same game.

We search for the best available line at oddshark.com.

Buckeye Michelle (5-0 for the season)

Syracuse + 3 1/2 vs. Florida St.

LSU +10 vs. Auburn

Duke +6 1/2 vs. Baylor

San Diego St. +5 1/2 vs. Arizona St.

Toledo +10 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

Friday Dog 13 (3-0 for the season)

Missouri -6 vs. Purdue

Tennessee -30 1/2 vs. UTEP

Virginia -3 1/2 vs. Ohio

 

Cal Gal Tiffany  (5-2 for the season)

Florida Int’l. -4 vs. U Mass.

Army -6 vs. Hawaii

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

Washington – 6 1/2 vs. Utah

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Stewed Meat (2-3 for the season)

Colorado St. +20 1/2 vs. Florida

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

Oregon St. +3 1/2 vs. Nevada

Washington -6 1/2 vs. Utah

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

 

Dean 615 (1-2 for the season)

Notre Dame -14 vs. Vanderbilt

North Texas +7 vs. Arkansas

TCU +14 vs. Ohio St.

 

 

 

September 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 1: September 6-10, 2018

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:13 am

PiRate Ratings NFL Ratings for Week 1

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New England 105.4 106.2 105.4 105.7 20
Miami 97.4 96.4 97.4 97.0 21.5
N. Y. Jets 96.8 96.8 97.2 96.9 22.5
Buffalo 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.3 18.5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Pittsburgh 106.0 106.2 105.6 105.9 22
Baltimore 99.6 100.4 99.9 100.0 23
Cincinnati 97.5 97.6 97.3 97.5 20
Cleveland 94.4 94.1 94.6 94.4 22
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Jacksonville 103.1 102.9 103.3 103.1 21.5
Houston 99.1 99.1 98.8 99.0 24.5
Tennessee 97.3 97.6 97.1 97.3 21.5
Indianapolis 94.7 92.9 94.4 94.0 22
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Kansas City 102.7 102.7 102.8 102.7 23.5
LA Chargers 101.9 103.0 102.2 102.4 20
Denver 98.5 98.1 97.7 98.1 21
Oakland 95.9 96.4 96.2 96.2 21
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Philadelphia 102.5 103.1 101.9 102.5 23.5
Dallas 99.7 99.8 99.5 99.7 21
Washington 98.5 97.6 98.6 98.2 22
N.Y. Giants 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 19.5
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Minnesota 104.5 104.5 104.4 104.5 19.5
Detroit 101.1 100.9 101.0 101.0 24.5
Green Bay 100.6 102.1 100.3 101.0 22.5
Chicago 98.8 98.1 99.3 98.7 18.5
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
New Orleans 107.2 107.2 107.4 107.3 23.5
Atlanta 104.4 104.3 104.8 104.5 21.5
Carolina 101.9 101.3 102.0 101.7 22
Tampa Bay 94.4 93.9 94.9 94.4 22
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
LA Rams 104.6 105.7 105.1 105.1 25.5
Seattle 101.0 100.7 101.0 100.9 21.5
San Francisco 98.8 99.3 98.8 99.0 23.5
Arizona 99.3 98.5 98.9 98.9 20.5

Week 1 PiRate Ratings Spread & Totals

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Total
Philadelphia Atlanta 0.6 1.4 -0.4 45
Cleveland Pittsburgh -9.5 -10.1 -9.0 44
Minnesota San Francisco 9.2 8.7 9.1 43
Indianapolis Cincinnati -0.8 -2.8 -0.9 42
Baltimore Buffalo 7.7 8.6 8.2 41.5
N.Y. Giants Jacksonville -3.9 -3.7 -4.1 41
New Orleans Tampa Bay 15.8 16.3 15.5 45.5
New England Houston 8.8 9.7 9.1 44.5
Miami Tennessee 2.0 0.8 2.3 43
L.A. Chargers Kansas City 2.3 3.3 2.4 43.5
Denver Seattle 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 42.5
Carolina Dallas 4.7 4.0 5.0 43
Arizona Washington 4.3 4.3 3.8 42.5
Green Bay Chicago 4.7 7.0 4.0 41
Detroit N.Y. Jets 7.2 7.1 6.8 47
Oakland L.A. Rams -6.7 -7.3 -6.9 46.5

2018-19  Won-Loss Projections & Playoff Projections

AFC
East W L T
New England 12 4 0
Miami 6 10 0
N. Y. Jets 6 10 0
Buffalo 4 12 0
North W L T
Pittsburgh 12 4 0
Baltimore 8 8 0
Cincinnati 6 10 0
Cleveland 4 12 0
South W L T
Jacksonville 10 6 0
Houston 9 7 0
Tennessee 8 8 0
Indianapolis 5 11 0
West W L T
Los Angeles 11 5 0
Kansas City 9 7 0
Denver 7 9 0
Oakland 6 10 0
N F C
East W L T
Philadelphia 10 6 0
Dallas 7 9 0
Washington 5 11 0
N.Y. Giants 4 12 0
North W L T
Minnesota 12 4 0
Green Bay 10 6 0
Detroit 9 7 0
Chicago 7 9 0
South W L T
New Orleans 11 5 0
Atlanta 10 6 0
Carolina 9 7 0
Tampa Bay 6 10 0
West W L T
Los Angeles 12 4 0
Seattle 8 8 0
Arizona 7 9 0
San Francisco 6 10 0

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Pittsburgh
2 New England
3 L.A. Chargers
4 Jacksonville
5 Kansas City
6 Houston
NFC Seeding
1 L.A. Rams
2 Minnesota
3 New Orleans
4 Philadelphia
5 Green Bay
6 Atlanta
Wildcard Round
L.A. Chargers over Houston
Jacksonville over Kansas City
Philadelphia over Green Bay
Atlanta over New Orleans
Divisional Round
Pittsburgh over Jacksonville
New England over L.A. Chargers
L.A. Rams over Atlanta
Philadelphia over Minnesota
Conference Championship
Pittsburgh over New England
L.A. Rams over Philadelphia
Super Bowl 53
Pittsburgh over L.A. Rams

 

December 6, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 14: December 8-12, 2016

Week 13 begins the final stretch in the NFL, as the 32 teams are all on the same closing schedule with 12 games played and four to go.  The Flex Scheduling has kicked in, and it becomes time to look at tiebreakers with competing teams.

If you want to take a look at the lengthy tiebreaker rules, you can find them at the NFL’s webpage at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures.

Here is a look at who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

AFC
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Baltimore
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Denver
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Atlanta
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Tampa Bay

Of course, the season does not end today, and our new projections show some changes in the rankings above, especially in the AFC West, where Oakland faces a difficult closing stretch, and Kansas City has a somewhat easier road in the final four games.

Our Projected Playoffs

AFC Seeding
1 New England
2 Kansas City
3 Pittsburgh
4 Indianapolis
5 Oakland
6 Denver
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Detroit
4 Tampa Bay
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Washington

And, our projected playoff outcomes for this week

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Denver
Oakland over Indianapolis
Detroit over Washington
N. Y. Giants over Tampa Bay
 
Divisional Round
New England over Oakland
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Dallas over N. Y. Giants
Seattle over Detroit
 
Conference Championship
Kansas City over New England
Seattle over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
Seattle over Kansas City

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.1 107.9 110.0 109.0 67 42
Buffalo 102.1 102.3 102.4 102.3 63 39
Miami 97.0 97.4 97.1 97.1 59 38
N. Y. Jets 95.6 94.5 96.0 95.4 57 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 104.8 104.4 105.4 104.9 63 42
Cincinnati 101.5 101.2 101.7 101.5 60 42
Baltimore 100.8 101.8 100.6 101.1 61 40
Cleveland 87.7 88.6 87.4 87.9 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 98.4 99.9 98.0 98.8 62 37
Tennessee 97.8 98.9 97.5 98.1 61 37
Houston 97.0 97.8 96.3 97.0 61 36
Jacksonville 93.1 94.5 92.7 93.4 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.6 104.5 105.2 105.1 63 42
Kansas City 104.0 103.8 104.5 104.1 64 40
Oakland 102.3 102.8 103.1 102.7 67 36
San Diego 99.3 100.1 99.1 99.5 64 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.9 104.2 105.5 104.9 63 42
Washington 101.6 101.3 101.6 101.5 63 39
Philadelphia 100.0 98.8 99.5 99.4 60 39
N.Y. Giants 99.2 98.8 99.3 99.1 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 102.4 101.7 102.2 102.1 59 43
Detroit 101.4 101.1 101.3 101.3 62 39
Green Bay 99.8 99.6 99.7 99.7 64 36
Chicago 93.7 92.7 93.5 93.3 56 37
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 104.7 105.4 104.7 104.9 70 35
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
Carolina 101.1 101.1 101.1 101.1 60 41
New Orleans 100.1 100.9 100.3 100.4 67 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 108.3 106.1 108.8 107.7 63 45
Arizona 102.7 101.6 102.7 102.3 63 39
Los Angeles 96.5 97.3 96.1 96.7 55 42
San Francisco 88.5 89.5 87.9 88.6 54 35

This Week’s NBA Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Kansas City Oakland 4.7 4.0 4.4 57
Buffalo Pittsburgh -0.2 0.4 -0.5 46
Carolina San Diego 4.8 4.0 5.0 45
Cleveland Cincinnati -11.8 -10.6 -12.3 41
Detroit Chicago 10.2 10.9 10.3 40
Indianapolis Houston 4.4 5.1 4.7 51
Jacksonville Minnesota -6.3 -4.2 -6.5 38
Miami Arizona -2.7 -1.2 -2.6 47
Philadelphia Washington 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 47
Tampa Bay New Orleans 4.4 3.7 4.3 59
Tennessee Denver -4.8 -2.6 -4.7 47
San Francisco New York Jets -4.1 -2.0 -5.1 38
Green Bay Seattle -5.5 -3.5 -6.1 48
Los Angeles Atlanta -5.2 -5.1 -5.6 48
New York Giants Dallas -2.7 -2.4 -3.2 48
New England Baltimore 10.3 9.1 12.4 48

 

 

 

October 10, 2013

PiRate Picks for October 10-14, 2013

This Week’s Themes

In recent weeks, our college money line parlays have done quite well, so we are going to play four of those this week.

 

We have yet to utilize the 13-point sweetheart teaser to tease the totals on NFL games, but a couple of weeks of test runs have seen good returns.  So, we are throwing in a couple of those this week.

 

We do not feel totally comfortable with any straight sides advice this week, so we will use the 13-point teasers for our remaining selections as well.

 

REMEMBER THIS: DO NOT use these selections to lose your mortgage payment.  We never wager real money, or the fake stuff printed by the Federal Reserve, on these picks.  These are only offered for entertainment fun.  You should know that you get what you pay for, and these selections are free.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

Pittsburgh + 22 ½ vs. Virginia Tech

Troy – 4 ½ vs. Georgia St.

Texas Tech – 1 ½ vs. Iowa St.

Rice +14 ½ vs. UT-San Antonio

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Nebraska – 1 ½ vs. Purdue

Florida +20 vs. L S U

Northwestern +23 ½ vs. Wisconsin

Michigan +10 ½ vs. Penn St.

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ -106

Troy over Georgia St.

Northern Illinois over Akron

Army over Eastern Michigan

Buffalo over Western Michigan

 

4. Money Line Parlay @ -114

Ohio over Central Michigan

B Y U over Georgia Tech

East Carolina over Tulane

 

5. Money Line Parlay @ -105

Stanford over Utah

Oklahoma over Texas

Michigan St. over Indiana

 

6. Money Line Parlay @ -108

Houston over Memphis

U N L V over Hawaii

Texas Tech over Iowa St.

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Chicago +5 ½ vs. N. Y. Giants

Kansas City +4 vs. Oakland

Philadelphia +12 vs. Tampa Bay

Baltimore +16 vs. Green Bay

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota +10 ½ vs. Carolina

N. Y. Jets +10 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Buffalo +20 vs. Cincinnati

Seattle – ½ vs. Tennessee

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Denver -14 ½ vs. Jacksonville

New England +10 ½ vs. New Orleans

Dallas + 7 ½ vs. Washington

Indianapolis +11 ½ vs. San Diego

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Chicago & N.Y. Giants OVER 34 ½

Kansas City & Oakland OVER 27 ½

Minnesota & Carolina OVER 31

St. Louis & Houston OVER 30

 

11. 13-point Teaser

N. Y. Jets & Pittsburgh UNDER 54

Seattle & Tennessee UNDER 53 ½

Arizona & San Francisco OVER 28 ½

Dallas & Washington OVER 38 ½

 

 

November 27, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 13: November 29-December 3, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:24 pm

Big Clearing In Playoff Picture

More teams played themselves out of the playoff picture this past week than played themselves into the playoff picture.  In the NFC, we can now count out Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit, and we can begin the count on Minnesota.  In the AFC, we can now call the KO on the Jets, Buffalo, San Diego, and Tennessee.

 

Cincinnati and Miami made forward moves in the AFC, while Washington placed themselves in position to be in position if they can pull off the big win this week against the Giants.

 

Here is how we project the race to end along with a look at how we think the playoffs will go.

 

A F C

1. New England 13-3-0 (Pats can run the table even without Gronk)

2. Houston 13-3-0 (Lose at Foxboro and then to Indy in meaningless week 17 game)

3. Denver 12-4-0 (Broncos could run table, but we think they will slip at Oakland)

4. Baltimore 12-4-0 (Sweeps Pittsburgh, but falls to Denver to end #4)

5. Indianapolis 10-6-0 (Finishes 5th based on better AFC record)

6. Pittsburgh 10-6-0 (Week 16 game with Cincinnati decides this spot)

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 14-2-0 (1 ½ game lead over 49ers too much to fall from #1)

2. San Francisco 11-4-1 (Tough road games at Pats and Seahawks keep 49ers here)

3. Chicago 11-5-0 (Cutler has to stay healthy or Bears fall lower)

4. New York Giants 9-7-0 (Giants won it all from this spot last year)

5. Green Bay 10-6-0 (Injuries and age make this spot a bit precarious)

6. Seattle 9-7-0 (Seahawks edge Tampa Bay based on better NFC record)

 

Playoff Scenario

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at Denver (Peyton exploits ailing Steeler defense)

Indianapolis at Baltimore (Ravens win by double digits)

Seattle at Chicago (If Cutler plays entire game, Bears win by about 6)

Green Bay at New York Giants (Giants win by less than 28 this time)

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore at New England (Old-fashioned dogfight in inclement weather—Bal wins)

Denver at Houston (Peyton leads Broncos to AFC Championship Game)

New York Giants at Atlanta (Giants repeat chances stay alive in upset)

Chicago at San Francisco (49ers win in a shootout even against healthy Cutler)

 

Conference Championships

New York Giants at San Francisco (49ers get their revenge in a blowout)

Baltimore at Denver (Peyton comes through again and sends Broncos to Super Bowl)

 

Super Bowl

San Francisco vs. Denver (First overtime game in Super Bowl history goes to 49ers)

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 106.4 105.3 104.7 104.0 3
Washington Redskins 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.5 2
Dallas Cowboys 98.8 98.9 99.0 99.0 2
Philadelphia Eagles 93.6 91.9 91.1 90.0 3.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 107.0 105.6 104.7 104.0 3.5
Green Bay Packers 105.7 104.0 102.0 102.0 3
Detroit Lions 99.9 99.3 100.4 98.5 3
Minnesota Vikings 96.4 97.9 98.6 99.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.3 106.3 106.2 107.5 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.2 101.9 100.4 101.5 3
New Orleans Saints 102.0 101.5 101.4 101.0 2.5
Carolina Panthers 95.4 95.5 97.5 95.5 1
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 110.2 108.5 104.9 106.5 1.5
Seattle Seahawks 103.1 102.6 102.3 102.0 5
Arizona Cardinals 96.4 94.4 96.1 92.0 2.5
St. Louis Rams 95.6 96.5 96.9 97.5 3.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 111.6 109.9 106.5 108.0 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.5 98.7 98.8 99.0 1.5
New York Jets 98.1 96.7 95.5 95.0 3.5
Buffalo Bills 95.6 96.5 100.1 97.5 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.6 105.5 105.9 106.5 3.5
Cincinnati Bengals 102.0 102.7 102.8 103.5 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 100.7 101.6 100.9 102.5 3.5
Cleveland Browns 95.3 95.9 97.5 96.5 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.6 108.3 108.6 109.0 3
Indianapolis Colts 94.3 98.1 100.0 102.5 4.5
Tennessee Titans 94.0 95.4 96.1 97.0 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 92.0 92.7 93.1 93.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 108.3 107.9 105.9 107.5 3
San Diego Chargers 98.9 98.3 99.8 97.5 3
Oakland Raiders 90.3 91.8 92.5 93.5 4
Kansas City Chiefs 90.2 89.9 89.7 89.5 2

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.3 6.8 6.8 8.5 3 1/2 56   
CHICAGO Seattle 7.4 6.5 5.9 5.5 4    38   
GREEN BAY Minnesota 12.3 9.1 6.4 5.5 9    46 1/2
San Francisco
ST. LOUIS
11.1 8.5 4.5 5.5 7    40   
N. Y. JETS Arizona 5.2 5.8 2.9 6.5 4 1/2 36 1/2
Carolina KANSAS CITY 3.2 3.6 5.8 4.0 3    40 1/2
DETROIT Indianapolis 8.6 4.2 3.4 -1.0 4 1/2 51   
BUFFALO Jacksonville 6.6 6.8 10.0 7.0 6    45   
New England MIAMI 11.6 9.7 6.2 7.5 7 1/2 51   
Houston TENNESSEE 11.1 10.4 10.0 9.5 5 1/2 47   
DENVER Tampa Bay 9.1 9.0 8.5 9.0 7    50 1/2
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 7.4 7.4 8.5 7.5 NL NL
Cleveland
OAKLAND
1.0 0.1 1.0 -1.0 -1 1/2 45   
Cincinnati
SAN DIEGO
0.1 1.4 0.0 3.0 1 1/2 46   
DALLAS Philadelphia 7.2 9.0 9.9 11.0 9    43   
N. Y. Giants WASHINGTON 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.5 2 1/2 51   

 

November 20, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 22-26, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:18 pm

Interesting Races In Six Divisions

With six games to go for everybody, six of the eight divisions still have interesting races, be it for a divisional championship or wildcard contention.

AFC East

This is one of the two divisions that does not have an interesting race.  New England has a three-game lead over its other three rivals, and even with the loss of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots will coast to an easy division title.

Buffalo is the only team of the back three that we see has a chance to get hot and go on a run to finish 9-7-0.  Even at 9-7-0, there is a good chance they would miss out on the playoffs.  This week’s game at Indianapolis may be the most important game left on their schedule.

AFC North

Baltimore now has a two-game lead over Pittsburgh, and it looks like the Ravens will keep that lead.  Pittsburgh needs Ben Roethlisberger to come back sooner rather than later, because Cincinnati could easily finish on a hot streak and nip them for second.  For now, we project Pittsburgh to edge out the Bengals and take one of the two wildcard spots.

AFC South

Houston is cruising to a division title, but the surprising Indianapolis Colts are in the thick of the wildcard race.  If the Colts continue to hold serve at home and pick up one road win from among Detroit, Houston, and Kansas City, they will take the second wildcard berth.  The schedule looks very favorable, because their three remaining home games are very winnable (especially if Houston does not need to win secure home field advantage in week 17.

AFC West

This is the other division with little excitement.  Peyton Manning proved he still has what it takes to win, and the Broncos are running away with the division title.  San Diego is underachieving for more than likely the last year under Norv Turner.

NFC East

The mediocrity division could possibly be won by an 8-8-0 team this year and should be won by a 9-7-0 team.  The New York Giants swooned in the middle of their schedule last year, losing four in a row by an average of 13 points per game.  They recovered to finish 9-7-0 but were outscored for the season before getting hot in the playoffs.

Dallas could easily be tied with the Giants by Sunday night, but don’t count out Washington yet.  If the Redskins win on Thanksgiving Day, and the Giants lose to Green Bay, RGIII and company will be one game out of first, and the Giants still have to visit Fedex Field.

NFC North

The old black and blue division is perhaps the most interesting race in the NFL.  With Jay Cutler sidelined the last six quarters, Chicago has become the Cookie Monsters of the Midway.  One Cutler comes back, the Bears should rebound, but Lovie Smith has to find a better way to provide Cutler protection.

Green Bay is not the power they were the last two seasons, but the Packers have enough horses remaining to get to 11-5 and guarantee themselves a playoff spot.

Minnesota is one of those teams that can be on and look like the Vikings of old or off and look like the Vikings of the last two years.  The Purple and White’s schedule is too difficult to get to 10-6.

NFC South

Atlanta built up too much of a lead to lose it, but New Orleans may be the better team at the present time.  Then, there’s Tampa Bay.  All three teams have enough talent and play well enough together to make a deep playoff run.

We believe the Buccaneers and Saints could finish in a tie for second, but one game shy of making it to the postseason.

NFC West

San Francisco’s situation is somewhat like Minnesota’s.  The 49ers can look like the 1985 Bears one week and the 2009 49er team the next.  However, using interpolation, if they continue this 50-50 trait, they will finish 11-4-1, 10-5-1 at the least.

Seattle is the big intangible in the entire league.  The Seahawks are tough at home and decent on the road.  They could easily go 3-0 at home from here on, and they could win two of their three road games (Miami, Chicago, Buffalo).  We believe Pete Carroll will be back in the playoffs this year.  If the Seahawks can win out and nip San Francisco for the division title, nobody will want to visit Centurylink Field in January.

PiRate Projections

NFC East Projection
New York Giants 9-7-0
Dallas Cowboys 7-9-0
Philadelphia Eagles 5-11-0
Washington Redskins 7-9-0
   
NFC North  
Green Bay Packers 11-5-0
Chicago Bears 11-5-0
Minnesota Vikings 9-7-0
Detroit Lions 7-9-0
   
NFC South  
Atlanta Falcons 13-3-0
New Orleans Saints 9-7-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7-0
Carolina Panthers 4-12-0
   
NFC West  
San Francisco 49ers 10-5-1
Seattle Seahawks 10-6-0
St. Louis Rams 4-11-1
Arizona Cardinals 4-12-0
   
AFC East  
Buffalo Bills 8-8-0
Miami Dolphins 6-10-0
New England Patriots 12-4-0
New York Jets 7-9-0
   
AFC North  
Baltimore Ravens 13-3-0
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5-0
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0
Cleveland Browns 3-13-0
   
AFC South  
Houston Texans 14-2-0
Indianapolis Colts 10-6-0
Tennessee Titans 6-10-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14-0
   
AFC West  
Denver Broncos 12-4-0
San Diego Chargers 6-10-0
Oakland Raiders 6-10-0
Kansas City Chiefs 1-15-0

 

Projected Playoff Seeds

A F C

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Chicago

6. Seattle

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at New England

Pittsburgh at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Chicago at New York Giants

 

Division Round

Lower Seeded Winner at Houston

Higher Seeded Winner at Baltimore

Lower Seeded Winner at Atlanta

Higher Seeded Winner at Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.9 103.4 103.0 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.5 100.1 100.4 101.0 2.5
Washington Redskins 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.5 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 94.6 92.8 92.0 91.0 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Green Bay Packers 107.3 106.6 104.7 106.0 2.5
Chicago Bears 106.6 103.9 102.7 101.0 2
Detroit Lions 99.6 99.5 100.8 99.5 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.4 100.6 102.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.1 106.6 106.8 108.5 2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.4 102.4 100.7 102.5 2.5
New Orleans Saints 102.3 103.5 104.1 105.0 3
Carolina Panthers 94.4 94.6 96.8 95.0 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.9 108.2 105.0 106.5 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.4 103.5 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.6 95.8 97.4 94.0 3
St. Louis Rams 94.4 95.8 96.4 97.5 3.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 110.4 108.3 104.8 106.0 2
New York Jets 99.3 98.1 96.9 97.0 3
Miami Dolphins 98.1 97.7 97.8 97.5 1
Buffalo Bills 96.1 96.9 100.1 98.0 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.5 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.4 101.8 100.7 102.5 3
Cincinnati Bengals 101.4 101.8 102.0 102.5 4
Cleveland Browns 94.6 94.7 96.1 95.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.5 2.5
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.3 97.1 98.5 2.5
Indianapolis Colts 93.8 97.1 98.7 101.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.5 91.9 92.1 92.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.0 108.0 105.4 107.0 3
San Diego Chargers 98.7 97.8 99.5 97.0 3
Oakland Raiders 90.9 91.8 92.2 93.0 4
Kansas City Chiefs 89.5 88.9 88.7 88.5 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Houston DETROIT 5.8 6.1 4.9 6.5 3    50 1/2
DALLAS Washington 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.0 3    47 1/2
New England N. Y. JETS 8.1 7.2 4.9 6.0 6 1/2 48   
CINCINNATI
Oakland
14.5 14.0 13.8 13.5 8    49   
Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 4.8 5.1 2.6 5.5 Pk NL
INDIANAPOLIS Buffalo 2.2 4.7 3.1 7.5 3    51   
Denver KANSAS CITY 17.5 17.1 14.7 16.5 10 1/2 44   
Tennessee JACKSONVILLE 2.5 3.9 4.5 5.5 3    43 1/2
CHICAGO Minnesota 11.8 6.5 4.1 0.5 Pk NL
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.5 1    48 1/2
Seattle MIAMI 4.4 4.7 4.6 5.0 3    37 1/2
Baltimore SAN DIEGO 3.1 4.2 2.7 5.5 Pk 47   
San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS
4.6 1.7 -2.1 -1.5 1 1/2 NL
ARIZONA
St. Louis
6.2 3.0 4.0 -0.5 2 1/2 37 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS Green Bay 0.0 -0.2 1.2 -0.5 2 1/2 49 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Carolina 2.7 0.7 -2.3 -1.5 2 1/2 NL

 

November 14, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 15-19, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:48 am

The Playoff Race—Is It Already Decided?

If the playoffs ended today, the 12 teams included would be:

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. Denver

4. New England

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

 

According to our ratings, these 12 teams project to remain the dozen that will make the playoffs.  We have very little change in our projections.

 

In the AFC, we believe the four division winners are already locked up.  Additionally, Pittsburgh should hang onto the top wildcard spot, even with the temporary quarterback issues.

 

We project the Colts to go 3-4 the rest of the way, while Cincinnati has an easy finishing schedule.  We see the Bengals closing 5-2.  Indianapolis has a 2 1/2 –game conference lead over Cincinnati, and if the Bengals and Colts finished tied at 9-7-0, Indy would own the tiebreaker in almost every scenario.

 

In the NFC, we are high on Seattle and believe the Seahawks have the most favorable schedule in the league.  It would not surprise us at all if Coach Pete Carroll’s team wins six of its final seven games and overtakes San Francisco by a half game.  We believe the two wildcard teams will have five losses apiece, so in order for a Minnesota at 6-4-0 or Tampa Bay at 5-4-0 to make the playoffs, they would have to lose no more than one more game.

 

Here is how we project the playoffs as of November 14, 2012:

 

A F C

1. Houston 15-1-0

2. Baltimore 13-3-0

3. New England 12-4-0

4. Denver 12-4-0

5. Pittsburgh 12-4-0

6. Indianapolis 9-7-0

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 15-1-0

2. Chicago 12-4-0

3. Seattle 11-5-0

4. New York Giants 9-7-0

5. Green Bay 11-5-0

6. San Francisco 10-5-1

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round

New England over Indianapolis

Denver over Pittsburgh

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New York Giants

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Houston

Baltimore over New England

Atlanta over Green Bay

Seattle over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Baltimore over Denver

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Baltimore over Atlanta

 

Current PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.7 102.9 102.1 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 100.3 99.6 99.1 98.6 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 97.2 97.3 97.1 97.1 2.5
Washington Redskins 96.7 96.8 96.6 96.6 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.5 107.5 106.6 106.1 2
Green Bay Packers 107.2 106.4 104.3 105.2 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.7 100.0 101.7 100.1 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.6 100.8 102.6 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.4 106.5 106.0 107.6 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.8 102.4 100.2 101.6 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.7 102.0 102.9 103.2 3
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.4 96.7 94.6 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.0 106.5 103.5 104.6 2
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.2 103.1 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.3 95.7 96.9 93.6 3
St. Louis Rams 96.5 97.8 98.3 99.1 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.8 106.3 102.8 103.1 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.7 98.5 98.0 98.1 1
New York Jets 97.2 95.9 94.7 94.1 3
Buffalo Bills 95.5 96.6 99.6 97.6 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.1 104.9 105.1 105.6 4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.1 102.7 101.1 103.1 3
Cincinnati Bengals 99.7 100.5 101.2 101.1 4
Cleveland Browns 93.8 94.1 95.2 94.1 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 110.1 109.6 109.1 108.7 3
Indianapolis Colts 95.4 98.6 100.0 102.1 4
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.5 97.3 98.6 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 89.3 90.3 90.6 91.1 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.4 108.4 105.6 107.1 3
San Diego Chargers 98.3 97.9 99.7 97.1 3
Oakland Raiders 92.5 93.1 93.3 93.6 4.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.2 90.3 89.7 89.1 2

 

Note: HFA is not merely home field advantage.  It is a combination of home field advantage plus the next opponents’ visiting team disadvantage.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Miami BUFFALO 0.2 -1.1 -4.6 -2.5 -1 1/2 45 1/2
WASHINGTON Philadelphia 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 1/2 43 1/2
Green Bay DETROIT 5.0 3.9 0.1 2.6 3 1/2 51 1/2
ATLANTA Arizona 11.1 13.8 12.1 17.0 10    44   
Tampa Bay CAROLINA 7.3 6.5 2.0 5.5 1 1/2 48 1/2
DALLAS Cleveland 9.0 8.0 6.4 7.0 7 1/2 43 1/2
ST. LOUIS New York Jets 3.8 6.4 8.1 9.5 3    38 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis 14.9 9.7 4.3 2.5 9    53 1/2
HOUSTON Jacksonville 23.8 22.3 21.5 20.6 15 1/2 40 1/2
Cincinnati KANSAS CITY 6.5 8.2 9.5 10.0 3 1/2 43 1/2
New Orleans OAKLAND 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.1 4 1/2 54 1/2
DENVER San Diego 14.1 13.5 8.9 13.0 7 1/2 48 1/2
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
1.0 0.8 -1.0 0.5 -3 1/2 41   
SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago
1.5 1.0 -1.1 0.5 5    NL

 

 

November 7, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 8-12, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:25 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 106.5 106.6 106.7 106.5 1.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.0 98.6 98.5 98.0 3
Philadelphia Eagles 98.6 98.7 98.7 98.5 3.5
Washington Redskins 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.5 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.9 108.4 107.7 107.5 1.5
Green Bay Packers 107.1 105.8 103.8 104.0 2
Detroit Lions 100.6 101.6 103.7 102.5 2
Minnesota Vikings 95.8 98.6 99.9 101.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 106.2 107.4 106.6 108.5 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.1 101.0 99.2 99.5 2
New Orleans Saints 99.5 100.3 101.2 101.0 2
Carolina Panthers 95.7 95.5 97.5 95.0 2
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.1 107.8 104.8 106.0 1.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.0 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.3 96.6 98.6 95.5 3
St. Louis Rams 95.3 96.4 97.0 97.5 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 109.5 108.2 105.9 106.5 2
Miami Dolphins 101.2 100.8 100.0 100.0 2.5
New York Jets 98.7 97.8 96.8 96.5 2.5
Buffalo Bills 96.2 94.8 96.8 93.0 2.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Pittsburgh Steelers 103.5 102.9 100.7 102.0 3.5
Baltimore Ravens 102.3 103.0 103.3 103.5 4
Cincinnati Bengals 97.9 97.6 98.6 97.0 3
Cleveland Browns 93.8 94.0 94.9 94.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 109.6 109.0 108.7 108.0 2.5
Indianapolis Colts 93.3 96.8 98.5 100.5 4.5
Tennessee Titans 91.9 92.5 92.8 93.0 3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.1 91.2 91.2 91.0 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 107.4 106.4 104.3 105.0 3.5
San Diego Chargers 99.2 99.0 100.5 98.5 2.5
Oakland Raiders 94.2 94.7 94.9 95.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 89.7 89.5 89.4 89.0 3.5

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Indianapolis JACKSONVILLE 1.7 5.1 6.8 9.0 3    42 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Buffalo 15.3 15.4 11.1 15.5 11    51   
N.Y. Giants CINCINNATI 5.6 6.0 5.1 6.5 4    48 1/2
TAMPA BAY
San Diego
5.9 5.0 1.7 4.0 3    47 1/2
Denver CAROLINA 9.2 8.4 4.3 7.5 4    47 1/2
MIAMI Tennessee 11.8 10.8 9.7 9.5 6    44   
BALTIMORE Oakland 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 7 1/2 46   
Atlanta NEW ORLEANS 4.7 5.1 3.4 5.5 2 1/2 53 1/2
Detroit MINNESOTA 1.3 -0.5 0.3 -2.5 2    47   
SEATTLE New York Jets 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.0 6 1/2 38 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Dallas 3.1 3.6 3.7 4.0 -1    44 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis 15.3 12.9 9.3 10.0 11 1/2 38 1/2
CHICAGO
Houston
0.8 0.9 0.5 1.0 1    41 1/2
PITTSBURGH
Kansas City
17.3 16.9 14.8 16.5 12 1/2 42 1/2

 

The Playoffs As Of Today

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Pittsburgh

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at New England

Indianapolis at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Green Bay at New York Giants

Older Posts »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.