The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 6, 2021

Super Bowl Special Parlay

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 pm

The PiRate Ratings chose not to issue any picks during the college bowl season and playoffs nor with the NFL Playoffs. With just one football game remaining this season, there is but one potential parlay remaining.

Normally, we lay off the Super Bowl entirely. It is like betting the Kentucky Derby; there are much better propositions in horse racing, namely in claiming and allowance races.

The PiRates only issue picks against the spread for fun and entertainment. We never wager any real money on games, and we highly advise you not to ever wager money based on what you read here. A few years ago, we had a professional “sharp” who has turned some mighty steep profits over the years pick games against four other “squares,” including two very wise females. The sharp didn’t win the competition. No, the female flight attendant won with ease. Her method was basically looking online at the public and picking games where the public was heavy on one side of a game. She went the opposite way and won about 60% of the games she wagered.

In all the years we participated in our fun wagers, only twice did we ever finish with a success north of 60%. Buckeye Michelle has retired from wagering on games just for fun, and we don’t have the queen of street smarts helping out these days.

What we have left in the tank this year is one final parlay. We are going with a thought that in recent years, the Super Bowls have been tightly battled with low margins and totals in the average range, not to different from the spread and total line. By playing a 4-team, 13-point teaser at -140 at most books but at -130 if you can find it, you are allowed to move pointspreads and/or totals by 13 points in your favor. In other words if Team A is favored by 9 1/2 points over Team B, a 13-point teaser would allow you to move the line 13 points in either direction. Now, Team A would go from a 9 1/2 point favorite to a 3 1/2 point underdog. Or, Team B would go from a 9 1/2 point underdog to a 22 1/2 point underdog.

There is but one game left, and to play a 13-point teaser, we need four different wagers. By wagering on both sides of the spread and both sides of the total, there are four different wager choices.

As of Saturday night, February 6, the line is Kansas City -3, and the total is 56 points.

Here is the possible 4-game, 13-point teaser.

Kansas City +10

Tampa Bay +16

Over 43

Under 69

Our expectation in this game is that the winner will win by no more than eight points, and the game might be a tad lower scoring than expected, but not lower than 43 points which is a critical total line value. If we had to guess a score in this game it would be 31-27 with a 55% chance that Kansas City will win its second Super Bowl in a row and a 45% chance that Tom Brady will become the Babe Ruth of football.

Enjoy the game. The PiRate Ratings hope you have rent money on Monday, so please don’t wager this game based on what we have published.

January 29, 2021

PiRate Ratings For Super Bowl 55

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:21 am

February 7, 2021

Margins

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Tampa BayKansas City1.81.82.0

Total

HomeVisitorTotal
Tampa BayKansas City58

January 13, 2020

PiRate Ratings For Conference Championship Round January 19, 2020

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Kansas City

Tennessee

5.5

6.0

7.0

San Francisco

Green Bay

7.3

7.8

7.5

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Kansas City

Tennessee

51

 

San Francisco

Green Bay

49.5

January 7, 2020

PiRate College Football Ratings–National Championship Game

Date: Monday, January 13, 2020

 

Site: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

 

Start Time: 8:00 PM EST

 

TV: ESPN

 

TV Options:  ESPN’s Megacast will give viewers multiple options to watch this game:  Check the link below

https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2020/01/espn-presents-the-college-football-playoff-national-championship-through-cutting-edge-technology/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=espn-presents-the-college-football-playoff-national-championship-through-cutting-edge-technology

 

Our Personal Favorite Option: The Skycast allows the viewer to have a behind the quarterback view.  With this view, the experienced football follower can see all blocking schemes and defensive alignments and techniques as well as the pass patterns run by the receivers and the defensive coverage.  Best of all–No announcers to tell you the obvious.  The Public Address Announcer gives you all the information you need.

 

Radio–ESPN

 

Teams

LSU Tigers (14-0) vs.

Clemson Tigers (14-0)

 

Las Vegas Spread:  LSU by 5 1/2 to 6 1/2

Las Vegas Totals: 69 1/2

Best Las Vegas Money Line For Both Teams:

LSU -205 

Clemson +190

 

The PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate:  LSU by 1.1

Mean:    LSU by 0.8

Bias:       LSU by 0.1

Predicted Score: LSU 38  Clemson 37

 

Comparing The Legends In The Making

Joe Burrow vs. Trevor Lawrence

 

Statistic

Burrow

Lawrence

Passer Efficiency

204.6

173.2

Yards Per Attempt

10.9

9.3

Adjusted YPA *

12.6

10.2

Rushing Yds/Attempt

3.1

5.5

 

* Adjusted Yards Per Attempt:  [Yards + (20 * TD) – (45 * Int.)] / Attempts

January 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl LIII Preview

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:27 am

Super Bowl 53 Preview

NFC Champion: Los Angeles Rams 15-3-0

AFC Champion: New England Patriots 13-5-0

Date: Sunday, February 3, 2019

Kickoff Time: Approximately 6:30 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Online: CBSSports.com

Phone: CBS Sports App

TV Announcing Crew

Jim Nantz–Play-by-play

Tony Romo–Booth Analysis

Sideline Reporter–Tracy Wolfson

Sideline Reporter–Evan Washburn

 

This is the best Super Bowl TV talent in this generation, and the equal of Curt Gowdy, Al DeRogatis, and Kyle Rote in Super Bowl III on NBC in January of 1969 50 years ago.

 

Radio Coverage: Westwood One Radio Sports

Top Radio Market Affiliates

City Radio # Radio Station
Atlanta 92.9 FM WZGC
Austin 104.9 FM WTXX
Baltimore 105.7 FM WJZ
Boston 850 AM WEEI
Charlotte 610 AM WFNZ
Chicago 670 AM WSCR
Cincinnati 1360 AM WSAI
Cleveland 92.3 FM WKRK
Columbus 1460 AM WBNS
Dallas 105.3 FM KRLD
Denver 1600 AM KEPN
Detroit 1270 AM WXYT
Houston 610 AM KILT
Indianapolis 1260 AM WNDE
Kansas City 810 AM WHB
Las Vegas 1100 AM KWWN
Los Angeles 550 AM KLAC
Miami 790 AM WAXY
Minneapolis 100.3 FM KFXN
Nashville 104.5 FM WGFX
New York 660 AM WFAN
Orlando 580 AM WDBO
Philadelphia 1210 AM WPHT
Phoenix 910 AM KGME
Pittsburgh 93.7 FM KDKA
Portland 750 AM KXTG
Sacramento 1140 AM KHTK
San Antonio 760 AM KTKR
San Bernardino 1350 AM KPWK
San Diego 97.3 FM KWFN
San Francisco Bay Area 95.7 FM WGMZ
Seattle 950 AM KJR
St. Louis 101.1 FM WXOS
Tampa 820 AM WWBA
Virginia Beach 94.1 FM WVSP
Washington, DC 106.7 FM WJFK

 and Sirius XM Channel 88

Radio Broadcast Talent

Kevin Harlan–Play by Play

Kurt Warner–Booth Analysis

Others–Mike Holmgren, Ed Werder, Tony Boselli, Scott Graham, and Jim Gray

Nevada Lines

Line as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, January 23

New England by 2 1/2

Total 57 1/2

Money Line

New England -135

Los Angeles +115

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads

Pirate: Los Angeles by 1.4

Mean: Los Angeles by 1.4

Bias: Los Angeles by 1.1

Total: 52

 

Computer Simulations

Data Used: Advanced Metric Statistics for both teams adjusted to strengths of schedules and then using a random number generator of potential outcomes, 100 simulations were run.  We feel that 10,000 simulations artificially lowers the variance, which was already quite low.

100 Sims

Los Angeles Wins: 56

New England Wins: 44

Average Score (Rounded) Los Angeles 30  New England 27

Simulations going over the total: 52

Simulations going under the total: 48

Standard Deviation on the Margin: 3.34

Standard Deviation on the Total: 5.22

Outlier Win for LA: Rams 41  Patriots 24

Outlier Win for NE: Patriots 31  Rams 16

This marks the final football publication for the PiRate Ratings until sometime in the Summer, when we will be in the process of updating the college football ratings for the 2019 season.  Thank You to all that patronize this site.  If you haven’t checked out our other ratings, we cover college basketball with new publications on Monday and Friday until the end of the regular season and then daily through Selection Sunday.  Our annual “Bracketnomics 505” comes out the Monday evening after Selection Sunday, and it has been our most read feature through the years.  We offer all this free to you, because we are a group of math geeks that were once athletes in the dark ages.

Our goal is to supply you with fun information and not to encourage you to wager money using our data for your research.  None of the contributors here at this site ever wager money on our recommendations.  We understand that there are professionals that come to this site, and more than one of you has told us that there is something we put out that does influence how you wager.  We hope for your sake, it doesn’t send you to the Poor House, because  we don’t have any more room here.

 

October 17, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 18-22, 2018

Last week was the first down week for our Land Sharps, as overall, they suffered their first cumulative loss of the season.  Overall, the five geniuses went an accumulated 11-17-1.  Dean615 did have his best record of the season, finishing 4-1, but Buckeye Michelle and Cal Gal Tiffany combined to go 1-6-1.

Don’t even ask about the PiRate Ratings.  This is our worst year making these selections since the 1990’s, and if it wasn’t for a rally on Sunday with three wins out of three, it would have been disastrous.  Of course, it isn’t really disastrous for us, because these picks are only for entertainment purposes, and thus no money was wagered.  Please take this advice and use our selections the same way.

The Land Sharps

Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 22-14-0  61.1%  18.3% ROI

Arizona St. +3 vs. Stanford

California -6.5 vs. Oregon St.

USC +7 vs. Utah

Wyoming +15.5 vs. Utah St.

Kentucky -11 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Buckeye Michelle

Season: 17-11-1  60.7%  16.9% ROI

Army -8 vs. Miami (O)

UTSA +18 vs. Southern Miss.

Wyoming +15.5 vs. Utah St.

Georgia Southern -12 vs. New Mexico St.

North Carolina St. +17 vs. Clemson

 

Dean 615

Season: 14-10-0  58.3%  12.5% ROI

Michigan St. +7.5 vs. Michigan

Purdue +13.5 vs. Ohio St.

LSU -6.5 vs. Mississippi St.

Penn St. -14 vs. Indiana

SMU +7.5 vs. Tulane

USC +7 vs. Utah

Navy +13 vs. Houston

 

Friday Dog 13

Season: 18-13-1  58.1%  11.6% ROI

Utah St. -14.5 vs. Wyoming

Ohio U -16.5 vs. Bowling Green

Central Florida -21 vs. East Carolina

Hawaii -3 vs. Nevada

LSU -6.5 vs. Mississippi St.

Iowa -9 vs. Maryland

Washington -15.5 vs. Colorado

 

Stewed Meat

Season: 19-19-0  50.0%  -5% ROI

Louisiana-Lafayette +25.5 vs. Appalachian St.

Eastern Michigan -3 vs. Ball St.

Western Michigan -4 vs. Central Michigan

Connecticut +34 vs. South Florida

Kentucky -11 vs. Vanderbilt

Marshall +3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Missouri -9 vs. Memphis

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks For October 18-22, 2018

College 10-point Teasers (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Air Force UNLV 1 Air Force
Michigan Michigan St. 17.5 Michigan St.
Toledo Buffalo 10 Buffalo

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Utah St. Wyoming 25.5 Wyoming
Clemson North Carolina St. 27 North Carolina St.
Florida St. Wake Forest 0.5 Florida St.

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Penn St. Indiana 0.5 Penn St.
Memphis Missouri 0.5 Missouri
Georgia Southern New Mexico St. 2.5 Georgia Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Mississippi St. LSU 3.5 LSU
Central Florida East Carolina 11 Central Florida
South Florida Connecticut 44 Connecticut

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Louisiana-Monroe Texas St. 0.5 Louisiana-Monroe
Kentucky Vanderbilt 1 Kentucky
Fresno St. New Mexico 4 Fresno St.

 

College 13-Point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Stanford Arizona St. 10.5 Arizona St.
TCU Oklahoma 5 Oklahoma
Miami (O) Army 5.5 Army
Maryland Iowa 3 Iowa

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina Syracuse 3.5 Syracuse
Oregon St. California 6.5 California
Oregon Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.
Utah USC 19.5 USC

 

College Money Line Parlays

4 Teams @ +254
Winner Loser
Army Miami (O)
Iowa Maryland
Duke Virginia
Western Michigan Central Michigan

 

2 Teams @ +693
Winner Loser
Minnesota Nebraska
USC Utah

 

NFL Picks vs. The Spread

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Denver Arizona 2 Arizona
Tampa Bay Cleveland 3 Cleveland
Philadelphia Carolina 5 Carolina
Indianapolis Buffalo 7.5 Buffalo
Baltimore New Orleans 2.5 New Orleans

 

NFL 10-Point Teasers (3 Games at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee L.A. Chargers 3.5 L.A. Chargers
Chicago New England 7 New England
Philadelphia Carolina 15 Carolina

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indianapolis Buffalo 17.5 Buffalo
Jacksonville Houston 15.5 Houston
San Francisco L.A. Rams 0.5 L.A. Rams

 

Team A Team B Total Pick
N.Y. Jets Minnesota 37 Over
Washington Dallas 31.5 Over
Philadelphia Carolina 35.5 Over

 

 

October 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 9-15, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:47 am

We’ve read your comments.  A couple dozen came in over the weekend telling us to defer to the Land Sharps.  Yes, all five of our guest selectors now have winning records for the season.  You heard that right.  Very few amateur handicappers can sustain a winning record against the spread plus the vigorish over the course of a couple of weeks, yet all five of our Land Sharps have done so after 6 weeks of the season.

As for your official PiRate picks, don’t ask.  We are suffering through a malaise, so by popular demand, we will present the Land Sharp picks first and then follow with our ridiculous 25 selections for the week.  We are going to just toss all the darts at once and hope 13 or more stick to the board.

You may notice that we are presenting this feature a day early this week.  There is a valid reason.  There is a Tuesday night college game, and one Sharp selected it.

This Week’s Sharps’ Selections

Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 22-11 66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 30.0%

Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU

 

Buckeye Michelle

Season: 16-8-1  66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 28.8%

Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC
UTSA +13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
South Carolina +3 vs. Texas A&M
Kansas St. +7 vs. Oklahoma St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Season: 15-9-1  62.5% vs. the Spread with ROI of 20.4%

Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. UNC
Fresno State -19 vs. Wyoming
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Utah State -24 vs. UNLV
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska

 

Stewed Meat

Season: 16-13  55.2% vs. the Spread with ROI of 5.9%

Arkansas St. +10 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn
Arizona +14 vs. Utah
Georgia -7 vs. LSU
Oregon +3 1/2 vs. Washington
Baylor +14 1/2 vs. Texas
Illinois +10 1/2 vs. Purdue
Central Florida -4 1/2 vs. Memphis
New Mexico Pk. vs. Colorado St.

 

Dean615

Season: 10-9  52.6% vs. the Spread with ROI of 0.5%

Notre Dame -20 1/2 vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa -4 1/2 vs. Indiana
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Texas Tech +7 1/2 vs. TCU
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn

 

The Official PiRate Ratings Selections

We are going with an astronomical 25 selections this week, because we keep choosing about 7 each week out of 25 that we like, and we keep choosing the wrong 7.  So, we are going with every selection we liked, since so many we didn’t choose in recent weeks were winners.

Picks vs. the Spread

Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Coastal Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UL-Monroe
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska
Washington -3 vs. Oregon
Penn St. -13 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
Army -14 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Georgia Southern -16 1/2 vs. Texas St.
UTSA + 13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC

10-point Teasers

All 3-game parlays at 11-10

Alabama -18 vs. Missouri
Tennessee +26 1/2 vs. Auburn
Hawaii +24 1/2 vs. BYU

Boston College -3 1/2 vs. Louisville
New Mexico +11 1/2 vs. Colorado St.
Eastern Michigan +11 1/2 vs. Toledo

Duke +12 vs. Georgia Tech
Iowa St. +17 vs. West Virginia
Georgia +3 vs. LSU

Maryland -14 vs. Rutgers
Miami (O) -1/2 vs. Kent St.
Northwestern +6 vs. Nebraska

Ohio St. -19 1/2 vs. Minnesota
UAB -6 vs. Rice
San Diego St.  Pk vs. Air Force

Army -4 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Texas A&M +8 vs. South Carolina
Texas -4 vs. Baylor

Arizona +24 vs. Utah
Florida +3 vs. Vanderbilt
Miami (Fla.) +4 vs. Virginia

 

Money Line Parlays

@ +191 $100 invested would return $291 with a win

Northwestern over Nebraska  
UAB over Rice  
South Florida over Tulsa 
Boston College over Louisville 

 

@+175 $100 invested would return $275 with a win

Central Florida over Memphis
San Diego St. over Air Force 
Buffalo over Akron 
Texas over Baylor

 

@+151 $100 invested would return $251 with a win

Florida over Vanderbilt 
Western Michigan over Bowling Green 
Georgia over LSU  
Army over San Jose St.

 

NFL 10-point Teasers 
(Totals) @11-10 3-game parlays
Team Team Total Pick
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 34 Over
Arizona Minnesota 33 Over
Carolina Washington 35 Over
Team Team Total Pick
Indianapolis N.Y. Jets 35 Over
Cincinnati Pittsburgh 63 Under
L.A. Chargers Cleveland 33.5 Over
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Miami 32 Over
Jacksonville Dallas 30 Over
San Francisco Green Bay 36 Over

 

NOTE: All wagers are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  These are imaginary currencies invested in imaginary books.  We do not bet on these games.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, these are not the actual picks Stewed has invested real currency at a real book in Nevada. 

Stewed is fortunate enough to receive the “Outlaw Line” before the Opening Line is issued.  Stewed’s real strategy is to isolate odds that are off by at least 3 points and then play both sides of the key games. 

For instance, if Team A is a 14 1/2 point favorite on the late Saturday night Outlaw Line, and Stewed believes the true spread should be 11, Stewed will put a 5-figure wager on Team B at +14 1/2.  Then, after the opening line is listed at 12 because Stewed and other Sharps knew better, and then when the line lowers to 11 because many in the general public also think they know better, Stewed wagers the same 5-figure amount on Team A at -11. 

If the actual game score comes in at 12, 13, or 14 (three very frequent game spreads), Stewed wins both wagers and makes a lot of profit.  Otherwise, Stewed will win one of the two wagers, unless the spread is exactly 11 points, in which Stewed wins one wager and pushes on the other.  All Stewed needs to do to turn a profit is to have a game come between the two spreads 1 out of every 19 games.  This is wagering with a margin of safety that none of the rest of us amateurs can do.

August 27, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 1

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:55 am

Since only a handful of games were played in Week 0, and the ratings barely moved, we will dispense with posting a new set of ratings this week and feature just our spreads for Week 1 and combine our Selections against the Spread For Week 1, as there are no NFL games this weekend.

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, August 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Connecticut Central Florida -24.2 -23.5 -25.4
Purdue Northwestern -4.0 -3.2 -5.8
Minnesota New Mexico St. 27.5 23.4 26.3
Tulane Wake Forest -12.8 -10.4 -10.7
Friday, August 31
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Michigan St. Utah St. 33.9 29.8 33.1
Western Michigan Syracuse -12.2 -7.8 -9.2
Wisconsin Western Kentucky 45.7 37.6 45.2
Colorado (n) Colorado St. 13.7 13.5 14.5
Stanford San Diego St. 24.6 21.0 24.2
Duke Army 20.2 16.5 19.4
Saturday, September 1
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Oklahoma Florida Atlantic 20.5 17.7 19.6
Rice Houston -26.2 -24.5 -29.0
Ohio St. Oregon St. 36.1 35.8 38.2
Penn St. Appalachian St. 36.8 31.6 35.9
Nebraska Akron 12.9 9.6 10.0
Boston College Massachusetts 27.5 21.3 25.2
Illinois Kent St. 16.2 14.5 15.8
Rutgers Texas St. 30.5 25.7 28.7
Florida Int’l. Indiana -13.3 -7.0 -12.2
Iowa Northern Illinois 20.0 15.1 18.4
Maryland (n) Texas -18.4 -19.2 -19.8
Troy Boise St. -14.9 -12.1 -13.7
South Alabama Louisiana Tech -9.8 -10.1 -10.0
Miami (O) Marshall -0.3 -0.7 0.9
North Texas SMU -0.6 3.9 1.1
Vanderbilt Middle Tennessee 6.9 5.6 4.6
Arizona BYU 17.0 13.6 16.7
Arizona St. UTSA 28.2 20.6 25.2
USC UNLV 26.4 22.9 25.1
UCLA Cincinnati 18.4 16.7 16.5
Auburn (n) Washington -4.6 -2.3 -4.8
Kentucky Central Michigan 24.5 19.2 23.6
Texas Tech (n) Ole Miss 0.7 -1.0 -1.9
South Carolina Coastal Carolina 42.2 37.8 41.1
West Virginia (n) Tennessee 11.2 9.2 10.7
California North Carolina 9.5 7.6 10.1
Wyoming Washington St. -4.5 -2.8 -2.5
Oregon Bowling Green 32.3 32.2 32.3
Liberty Old Dominion -9.8 -14.9 -12.3
Notre Dame Michigan 6.9 3.9 4.0
Alabama (n) Louisville 28.4 25.5 30.7
Hawaii Navy -17.6 -18.6 -19.4
Sunday, September 2
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
LSU (n) Miami (Fla.) -10.2 -7.9 -9.4
Monday, September 3
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Florida St. Virginia Tech 0.2 0.1 0.2

(n) means neutral site game, but some teams may receive a little advantage for playing close to home.

FBS vs. FCS Games–PiRate Rating Spread Only

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Ball St. Central Conn. 5.1
Georgia St. Kennesaw St. 3.6
Oklahoma St. Missouri St. 40.9
San Jose St. UC-Davis -0.9
Texas A&M Northwestern St. 40.6
UAB Savannah St. 28.8
Utah Weber St. 22.0
Eastern Michigan Monmouth 20.0
Air Force Stony Brook 13.7
Arkansas Eastern Illinois 29.8
Arkansas St. SE Missouri 24.9
Baylor Abilene Christian 31.3
Buffalo Delaware St. 38.6
Charlotte Fordham 10.8
Clemson Furman 43.7
East Carolina N.C. A&T 9.9
Florida Chas. Southern 32.5
Fresno St. Idaho 21.0
Georgia Austin Peay 47.8
Georgia Southern S. Carolina St. 22.3
Georgia Tech Alcorn St. 39.9
Iowa St. South Dakota St. 16.5
Kansas Nicholls St. 10.6
Kansas St. South Dakota 25.2
La.-Monroe SE Louisiana 10.1
Louisiana Grambling 10.2
Memphis Mercer 32.9
Mississippi St. S F Austin 44.3
Missouri UT-Martin 29.3
N. Carolina St. James Madison 17.2
Nevada Portland St. 21.0
New Mexico Incarnate Word 27.8
Ohio U Howard 34.7
Pittsburgh Albany 30.1
South Florida Elon 28.7
Southern Miss. Jackson St. 35.4
TCU Southern 47.6
Temple Villanova 18.8
Toledo VMI 42.4
Tulsa Central Arkansas 10.0
UTEP Northern Arizona -6.0
Virginia Richmond 15.6

PiRate Ratings Picks Versus The Spread

This year, we are going to stick our necks out and go with straight spread and totals wagering in our imaginary picks with an imaginary bank account.

Remember: We never lose money on these picks, because they are strictly for fun.  We suggest you use these selections the same way.

Unless otherwise stated, all of our pretend picks will be for $100 imaginary.

Date 8/27-9/3 $100 per pick
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Purdue Northwestern 2 1/2 Northwestern
Michigan St. Utah St. 23 Michigan St.
Penn St. Appalachian St. 23 1/2 Penn St.
Nebraska Akron 24 1/2 Akron
Iowa Northern Illinois 10 Iowa
Texas Maryland 13 Texas
California North Carolina 7 California

 

 

 

January 5, 2017

Ratings & Spreads For 2017 National Championship Game

Just the Facts, Please

NCAA FBS National Championship Game

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0) vs. #2 Clemson Tigers (13-1) 

Date: Monday, January 9, 2017

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

TV: ESPN

Online: WatchESPN app

Site: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

Radio: ESPN Radio and ESPNRadio.com

To find your local radio affiliate: http://www.espn.com/espnradio/affiliate

 

Handicapper’s Corner

Las Vegas Spread: Alabama by 6 1/2

Las Vegas Totals: 51

 

PiRate Rating: Alabama by 7.1

Mean Rating: Alabama by 6.3

Bias Rating: Alabama by 7.7

Note: The firing of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and replacing him with Steve Sarkisian has bot been factored into our three ratings.  

100 Simulations

Alabama Wins: 73

Clemson Wins: 27

Average Score: Alabama 31  Clemson 22

Outlier A: Alabama 38  Clemson 7

Outlier B: Clemson 34  Alabama 26

November 20, 2015

Selections Against The Spread–November 20, 2015

We almost decided to take this week off in our selections against the spread and money line parlays.  To start off with, we do not like any of the NFL lines this week, and we eliminated them all from consideration.  Since an overwhelming majority of our readers come to us for NFL information rather than college, it almost did not seem worth it.  However, a couple of you like the college game, so we need to give you something to laugh at.

While our selections against the spread are basically at .500 this year, our money line parlays have been an inconsistent winner.  Because we are playing parlays where the final odds on each game are on the + side, it figures that it would be very hard to win half, but the average payout is about 5-3, so winning 50% is okay, because you come out ahead.

To date, our parlay choices are just 10-12, but our return on the mythical 22 selections has been positive to the turn of 43.5% ROI.

 

However, we do warn you: do not use our selections as your source of investment.  It’s fine if you want to look, but make your own choices.  We do not use ours for anything other than the fun we have doing it.

 

Straight Picks–Sides

11/20/2015      
Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Maryland Indiana 3 Indiana
Connecticut Houston -10 Connecticut
Virginia Tech North Carolina -4 North Carolina
Wisconsin Northwestern 10 1/2 Northwestern
Oklahoma TCU 11 1/2 TCU
Arizona St. Arizona 7 1/2 Arizona
Kansas St. Iowa St. 5 1/2 Kansas St.
Stanford California 11 1/2 California
New Mexico Colorado St. -2 1/2 New Mexico

Money Line Parlay

Money Line Parlay 6 Teams at 8-5   $264 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Georgia Georgia Southern   Georgia
NC St Syracuse   NC St
Tennessee Missouri   Tennessee
Ohio St. Michigan St.   Ohio St.
Washington Oregon St.   Washington
Notre Dame Boston College   Notre Dame

 

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