PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday	August 24
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida (n)	Miami (Fla.)	11.0	9.5	8.9
Hawaii	Arizona	-2.2	-0.3	-3.4
Thursday	August 29
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	UCLA	2.6	1.1	3.7
Tulane	Florida Int’l.	4.4	5.4	3.7
Clemson	Georgia Tech	36.7	34.0	36.7
Texas A&M	Texas St.	36.5	33.7	34.9
Arizona St.	Kent St.	26.4	24.6	26.8
BYU	Utah	-13.5	-11.5	-13.5
Friday	August 30
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Rice	28.2	26.4	28.7
South Florida	Wisconsin	-12.1	-10.1	-10.9
Michigan St.	Tulsa	27.1	26.4	26.2
Rutgers	Massachusetts	21.2	18.1	21.2
Wake Forest	Utah St.	1.3	2.0	0.0
Nevada	Purdue	-15.2	-13.4	-15.2
Colorado (n)	Colorado St.	20.5	14.8	20.6
Oregon St.	Oklahoma St.	-11.9	-10.8	-12.3
Saturday	August 31
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	18.9	16.1	19.5
Illinois	Akron	16.5	17.3	15.4
Indiana (n)	Ball St.	23.8	22.4	23.3
Nebraska	South Alabama	35.9	33.8	36.8
Ohio St.	Florida Atlantic	32.2	31.1	31.7
Kentucky	Toledo	21.3	19.7	19.0
Memphis	Ole Miss	3.1	3.7	5.6
Louisiana (n)	Mississippi St.	-25.0	-19.6	-25.8
North Carolina (n)	South Carolina	-14.3	-11.3	-12.7
Tennessee	Georgia St.	30.8	29.0	30.3
Alabama (n)	Duke	31.3	26.7	32.2
Coastal Carolina	Eastern Michigan	-5.2	-4.1	-7.1
Stanford	Northwestern	0.3	0.1	1.5
Boston College	Virginia Tech	-1.5	-2.6	-1.6
Liberty	Syracuse	-21.3	-19.4	-21.0
Arkansas St.	SMU	-5.4	-4.3	-5.8
Florida St. (n)	Boise St.	2.0	3.6	1.9
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-18.7	-17.8	-20.0
Auburn (n)	Oregon	3.8	0.9	1.5
LSU	Georgia Southern	28.0	25.3	27.3
Wyoming	Missouri	-18.5	-12.7	-17.7
Iowa	Miami (O)	27.4	26.6	26.8
Michigan	Middle Tennessee	35.2	33.8	35.8
Pittsburgh	Virginia	3.4	2.4	2.7
Texas	Louisiana Tech	23.4	23.5	22.5
Washington St.	New Mexico St.	37.0	32.5	37.4
USC	Fresno St.	7.2	8.0	6.8
Sunday/Monday	September 1/2
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma	Houston	28.2	25.7	24.9
Louisville	Notre Dame	-23.8	-22.4	-25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate
San Jose St.	Northern Colorado	14.5
Connecticut	Wagner	12.6
Central Michigan	Albany	9.8
Bowling Green	Morgan St.	17.2
Buffalo	Robert Morris	43.9
Charlotte	Gardner-Webb	26.5
Western Kentucky	Central Arkansas	11.9
Central Florida	Florida A&M	45.5
UAB	Alabama St.	45.5
Minnesota	South Dakota St.	12.7
UNLV	Southern Utah	17.3
Air Force	Colgate	11.3
New Mexico	Sam Houston St.	9.7
Maryland	Howard	36.0
Iowa St.	Northern Iowa	22.2
Kansas	Indiana St.	13.8
West Virginia	James Madison	18.5
Ohio U	Rhode Island	27.6
Washington	E. Washington	18.0
Temple	Bucknell	44.2
Navy	Holy Cross	24.4
Penn St.	Idaho	40.5
Appalachian St.	East Tennessee	36.3
Arkansas	Portland St.	21.0
Texas Tech	Montana St.	25.7
UTSA	Incarnate Word	7.3
Troy	Campbell	33.8
California	UC-Davis	14.5
Marshall	VMI	37.8
Old Dominion	Norfolk St.	23.5
Southern Miss	Alcorn St.	23.6
Kansas St.	Nicholls	23.9
Baylor	Stephen F Austin	37.3
Northern Illinois	Illinois St.	7.3
Western Michigan	Monmouth	20.5
North Texas	Abilene Christian	19.4
UTEP	Houston Baptist	15.2
TCU	Ark. Pine Bluff	52.3
Louisiana-Monroe	Grambling	24.3
San Diego St.	Weber St.	8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.3	130.6	136.1	134.0
2	Clemson	133.8	129.6	134.6	132.7
3	Georgia	125.7	123.6	126.1	125.1
4	Michigan	122.9	120.8	123.6	122.4
5	L S U	123.5	120.4	122.2	122.0
6	Ohio St.	121.1	119.3	121.3	120.6
7	Notre Dame	121.0	119.1	121.5	120.5
8	Oklahoma	120.5	119.4	120.1	120.0
9	Florida	120.7	117.8	119.7	119.4
10	Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	116.7	117.2
11	Utah	116.6	114.7	116.8	116.0
12	Auburn	117.0	114.4	116.1	115.8
13	Mississippi St.	117.5	112.5	117.2	115.7
14	Michigan St.	115.6	115.3	115.7	115.5
15	Penn St.	115.0	113.9	114.9	114.6
16	Missouri	115.5	112.4	115.5	114.5
17	Iowa	115.1	112.6	114.9	114.2
18	Oregon	113.3	113.5	114.6	113.8
19	South Carolina	113.8	112.2	113.7	113.2
20	Washington	112.7	111.9	113.8	112.8
21	Iowa St.	111.8	112.2	111.7	111.9
22	Syracuse	111.9	111.5	112.0	111.8
23	Washington St.	112.0	110.7	112.2	111.6
24	Tennessee	111.8	111.6	110.3	111.2
25	Minnesota	111.8	111.2	110.6	111.2
26	Texas	111.4	111.2	110.7	111.1
27	Northwestern	111.3	110.4	110.3	110.7
28	Purdue	110.4	110.3	110.0	110.2
29	Baylor	110.3	110.2	109.8	110.1
30	Miami (Fla.)	109.6	108.3	110.8	109.6
31	Oklahoma St.	109.6	110.0	108.9	109.5
32	Wisconsin	109.7	109.0	109.0	109.2
33	Virginia Tech	108.5	109.1	109.2	108.9
34	Indiana	109.6	107.8	108.6	108.7
35	Stanford	108.7	107.5	108.8	108.3
36	Central Florida	108.1	107.1	109.2	108.1
37	Kentucky	108.8	107.5	107.6	108.0
38	Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	108.5	107.7
39	Pittsburgh	108.0	107.6	107.4	107.7
40	Nebraska	107.2	108.8	107.0	107.7
41	California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4
42	Virginia	107.1	107.7	107.2	107.3
43	Texas Tech	107.5	107.6	106.6	107.2
44	U C L A	107.1	106.9	106.3	106.8
45	Kansas St.	107.0	106.8	106.6	106.8
46	Cincinnati	106.8	105.0	107.0	106.3
47	West Virginia	106.4	106.2	105.9	106.1
48	Utah St.	105.6	104.3	107.0	105.6
49	Florida St.	105.2	105.9	105.4	105.5
50	Boise St.	105.2	104.3	105.5	105.0
51	U S C	103.8	105.2	104.2	104.4
52	Appalachian St.	105.4	103.3	104.5	104.4
53	Boston College	104.1	103.5	104.6	104.1
54	Memphis	103.8	103.3	105.0	104.0
55	Duke	104.0	103.8	103.8	103.9
56	Vanderbilt	104.5	103.3	103.6	103.8
57	Wake Forest	103.4	102.8	103.5	103.2
58	T C U	101.8	105.6	102.2	103.2
59	Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7
60	North Carolina St.	102.5	102.2	103.1	102.6
61	Temple	102.2	101.0	103.5	102.2
62	Arizona	101.9	102.0	102.4	102.1
63	Maryland	102.3	101.8	101.1	101.7
64	BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.2	101.1	100.9	101.4
66	North Carolina	99.5	100.9	101.0	100.5
67	Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.4	100.1
68	Georgia Tech	100.1	98.6	101.0	99.9
69	Colorado	100.0	99.0	100.1	99.7
70	Arkansas	99.5	100.5	98.8	99.6
71	Western Michigan	99.6	98.2	99.9	99.2
72	SMU	99.4	98.4	99.6	99.1
73	Georgia Southern	98.5	98.0	97.9	98.2
74	Air Force	96.7	98.0	97.5	97.4
75	Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.3	97.2
76	Houston	95.4	96.7	98.2	96.7
77	Ohio	96.5	95.2	98.0	96.6
78	Tulane	95.9	96.6	96.0	96.2
79	Hawaii	95.7	97.7	95.0	96.1
80	Kansas	95.3	96.5	95.0	95.6
81	South Florida	94.6	95.9	95.1	95.2
82	Wyoming	94.0	96.6	94.8	95.1
83	Oregon St.	94.8	96.2	93.6	94.9
84	San Diego St.	94.2	96.2	93.9	94.8
85	Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8
86	Florida Int’l.	94.0	93.7	94.8	94.2
87	Northern Illinois	94.5	93.2	94.6	94.1
88	Louisville	94.7	94.2	93.0	93.9
89	Southern Miss.	94.6	92.2	94.9	93.9
90	Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2
91	North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1
92	Nevada	92.2	93.9	91.8	92.6
93	Louisiana	92.5	92.9	91.4	92.3
94	Tulsa	91.5	91.9	92.5	92.0
95	Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.1	92.6	91.9
96	Rutgers	91.9	91.9	91.5	91.8
97	Arkansas St.	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5
98	Louisiana Tech	91.1	90.8	91.2	91.0
99	Toledo	90.5	90.8	91.6	90.9
100	Middle Tennessee	90.7	90.0	90.8	90.5
101	Miami (Ohio)	90.7	89.0	91.1	90.3
102	Louisiana-Monroe	89.2	89.9	89.2	89.4
103	Eastern Michigan	89.0	89.2	89.8	89.4
104	Buffalo	88.2	89.0	89.2	88.8
105	Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7
106	Western Kentucky	87.9	88.7	89.4	88.6
107	U A B	87.2	89.1	87.7	88.0
108	U N L V	86.4	88.9	86.5	87.3
109	Navy	86.2	89.2	85.8	87.1
110	Charlotte	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7
111	East Carolina	85.2	87.6	85.1	86.0
112	Ball St.	85.8	85.4	85.3	85.5
113	Kent St.	85.0	85.5	85.2	85.2
114	San Jose St.	83.8	86.0	82.9	84.2
115	Georgia St.	84.0	85.6	83.0	84.2
116	Texas St.	83.8	84.9	83.8	84.2
117	New Mexico	83.2	86.3	82.6	84.1
118	Akron	83.3	83.4	83.5	83.4
119	Coastal Carolina	81.4	82.6	80.2	81.4
120	Colorado St.	79.4	84.2	79.5	81.0
121	New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0
122	Bowling Green	78.5	78.5	78.9	78.7
123	Central Michigan	78.1	79.2	78.2	78.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	77.2	80.0	76.9	78.0
125	Rice	77.1	78.8	76.4	77.5
126	Old Dominion	75.7	76.0	75.7	75.8
127	South Alabama	74.3	78.0	73.1	75.2
128	Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6
129	Connecticut	73.6	77.9	72.1	74.5
130	U T E P	66.9	72.6	67.3	68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	108.1	107.1	109.2	108.1	0-0	0-0
Cincinnati	106.8	105.0	107.0	106.3	0-0	0-0
Temple	102.2	101.0	103.5	102.2	0-0	0-0
South Florida	94.6	95.9	95.1	95.2	0-0	0-0
East Carolina	85.2	87.6	85.1	86.0	0-0	0-0
Connecticut	73.6	77.9	72.1	74.5	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	103.8	103.3	105.0	104.0	0-0	0-0
SMU	99.4	98.4	99.6	99.1	0-0	0-0
Houston	95.4	96.7	98.2	96.7	0-0	0-0
Tulane	95.9	96.6	96.0	96.2	0-0	0-0
Tulsa	91.5	91.9	92.5	92.0	0-0	0-0
Navy	86.2	89.2	85.8	87.1	0-0	0-0
AAC Averages	95.2	95.9	95.8	95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.8	129.6	134.6	132.7	0-0	0-0
Syracuse	111.9	111.5	112.0	111.8	0-0	0-0
Florida St.	105.2	105.9	105.4	105.5	0-0	0-0
Boston College	104.1	103.5	104.6	104.1	0-0	0-0
Wake Forest	103.4	102.8	103.5	103.2	0-0	0-0
North Carolina St.	102.5	102.2	103.1	102.6	0-0	0-0
Louisville	94.7	94.2	93.0	93.9	0-0	0-0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	109.6	108.3	110.8	109.6	0-0	0-0
Virginia Tech	108.5	109.1	109.2	108.9	0-0	0-0
Pittsburgh	108.0	107.6	107.4	107.7	0-0	0-0
Virginia	107.1	107.7	107.2	107.3	0-0	0-0
Duke	104.0	103.8	103.8	103.9	0-0	0-0
North Carolina	99.5	100.9	101.0	100.5	0-0	0-0
Georgia Tech	100.1	98.6	101.0	99.9	0-0	0-0
ACC Averages	106.6	106.1	106.9	106.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	120.5	119.4	120.1	120.0	0-0	0-0
Iowa St.	111.8	112.2	111.7	111.9	0-0	0-0
Texas	111.4	111.2	110.7	111.1	0-0	0-0
Baylor	110.3	110.2	109.8	110.1	0-0	0-0
Oklahoma St.	109.6	110.0	108.9	109.5	0-0	0-0
Texas Tech	107.5	107.6	106.6	107.2	0-0	0-0
Kansas St.	107.0	106.8	106.6	106.8	0-0	0-0
West Virginia	106.4	106.2	105.9	106.1	0-0	0-0
T C U	101.8	105.6	102.2	103.2	0-0	0-0
Kansas	95.3	96.5	95.0	95.6	0-0	0-0
Big 12 Averages	108.2	108.6	107.7	108.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	122.9	120.8	123.6	122.4	0-0	0-0
Ohio St.	121.1	119.3	121.3	120.6	0-0	0-0
Michigan St.	115.6	115.3	115.7	115.5	0-0	0-0
Penn St.	115.0	113.9	114.9	114.6	0-0	0-0
Indiana	109.6	107.8	108.6	108.7	0-0	0-0
Maryland	102.3	101.8	101.1	101.7	0-0	0-0
Rutgers	91.9	91.9	91.5	91.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	115.1	112.6	114.9	114.2	0-0	0-0
Minnesota	111.8	111.2	110.6	111.2	0-0	0-0
Northwestern	111.3	110.4	110.3	110.7	0-0	0-0
Purdue	110.4	110.3	110.0	110.2	0-0	0-0
Wisconsin	109.7	109.0	109.0	109.2	0-0	0-0
Nebraska	107.2	108.8	107.0	107.7	0-0	0-0
Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.3	97.2	0-0	0-0
Big Ten Averages	110.1	109.4	109.6	109.7
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Int’l.	94.0	93.7	94.8	94.2	0-0	0-0
Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2	0-0	0-0
Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.1	92.6	91.9	0-0	0-0
Middle Tennessee	90.7	90.0	90.8	90.5	0-0	0-0
Western Kentucky	87.9	88.7	89.4	88.6	0-0	0-0
Charlotte	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7	0-0	0-0
Old Dominion	75.7	76.0	75.7	75.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	92.2	94.9	93.9	0-0	0-0
North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1	0-0	0-0
Louisiana Tech	91.1	90.8	91.2	91.0	0-0	0-0
U A B	87.2	89.1	87.7	88.0	0-0	0-0
Texas-San Antonio	77.2	80.0	76.9	78.0	0-0	0-0
Rice	77.1	78.8	76.4	77.5	0-0	0-0
U T E P	66.9	72.6	67.3	68.9	0-0	0-0
CUSA Averages	86.2	86.8	86.6	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.0	119.1	121.5	120.5	x	0-0
Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7	x	0-0
BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7	x	0-0
Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7	x	0-0
New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0	x	0-0
Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6	x	0-0
Indep. Averages	94.2	95.2	94.3	94.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.5	95.2	98.0	96.6	0-0	0-0
Miami (Ohio)	90.7	89.0	91.1	90.3	0-0	0-0
Buffalo	88.2	89.0	89.2	88.8	0-0	0-0
Kent St.	85.0	85.5	85.2	85.2	0-0	0-0
Akron	83.3	83.4	83.5	83.4	0-0	0-0
Bowling Green	78.5	78.5	78.9	78.7	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	99.6	98.2	99.9	99.2	0-0	0-0
Northern Illinois	94.5	93.2	94.6	94.1	0-0	0-0
Toledo	90.5	90.8	91.6	90.9	0-0	0-0
Eastern Michigan	89.0	89.2	89.8	89.4	0-0	0-0
Ball St.	85.8	85.4	85.3	85.5	0-0	0-0
Central Michigan	78.1	79.2	78.2	78.5	0-0	0-0
MAC Averages	88.3	88.1	88.8	88.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	105.6	104.3	107.0	105.6	0-0	0-0
Boise St.	105.2	104.3	105.5	105.0	0-0	0-0
Air Force	96.7	98.0	97.5	97.4	0-0	0-0
Wyoming	94.0	96.6	94.8	95.1	0-0	0-0
New Mexico	83.2	86.3	82.6	84.1	0-0	0-0
Colorado St.	79.4	84.2	79.5	81.0	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.4	100.1	0-0	0-0
Hawaii	95.7	97.7	95.0	96.1	0-0	0-0
San Diego St.	94.2	96.2	93.9	94.8	0-0	0-0
Nevada	92.2	93.9	91.8	92.6	0-0	0-0
U N L V	86.4	88.9	86.5	87.3	0-0	0-0
San Jose St.	83.8	86.0	82.9	84.2	0-0	0-0
MWC Averages	93.0	94.7	93.1	93.6
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	113.3	113.5	114.6	113.8	0-0	0-0
Washington	112.7	111.9	113.8	112.8	0-0	0-0
Washington St.	112.0	110.7	112.2	111.6	0-0	0-0
Stanford	108.7	107.5	108.8	108.3	0-0	0-0
California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4	0-0	0-0
Oregon St.	94.8	96.2	93.6	94.9	0-0	0-0
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	114.7	116.8	116.0	0-0	0-0
Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	108.5	107.7	0-0	0-0
U C L A	107.1	106.9	106.3	106.8	0-0	0-0
U S C	103.8	105.2	104.2	104.4	0-0	0-0
Arizona	101.9	102.0	102.4	102.1	0-0	0-0
Colorado	100.0	99.0	100.1	99.7	0-0	0-0
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.5	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.7	123.6	126.1	125.1	0-0	0-0
Florida	120.7	117.8	119.7	119.4	0-0	0-0
Missouri	115.5	112.4	115.5	114.5	0-0	0-0
South Carolina	113.8	112.2	113.7	113.2	0-0	0-0
Tennessee	111.8	111.6	110.3	111.2	0-0	0-0
Kentucky	108.8	107.5	107.6	108.0	0-0	0-0
Vanderbilt	104.5	103.3	103.6	103.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	130.6	136.1	134.0	0-0	0-0
L S U	123.5	120.4	122.2	122.0	0-0	0-0
Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	116.7	117.2	0-0	0-0
Auburn	117.0	114.4	116.1	115.8	0-0	0-0
Mississippi St.	117.5	112.5	117.2	115.7	0-0	0-0
Ole Miss	102.2	101.1	100.9	101.4	0-0	0-0
Arkansas	99.5	100.5	98.8	99.6	0-0	0-0
SEC Averages	115.3	113.2	114.6	114.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.4	103.3	104.5	104.4	0-0	0-0
Georgia Southern	98.5	98.0	97.9	98.2	0-0	0-0
Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8	0-0	0-0
Georgia St.	84.0	85.6	83.0	84.2	0-0	0-0
Coastal Carolina	81.4	82.6	80.2	81.4	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	92.5	92.9	91.4	92.3	0-0	0-0
Arkansas St.	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5	0-0	0-0
Louisiana-Monroe	89.2	89.9	89.2	89.4	0-0	0-0
Texas St.	83.8	84.9	83.8	84.2	0-0	0-0
South Alabama	74.3	78.0	73.1	75.2	0-0	0-0
SBC Averages	89.5	90.2	88.8	89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	114.4
2	BTen	109.7
3	B12	108.2
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	106.5
6	AAC	95.6
7	Ind	94.5
8	MWC	93.6
9	SUN	89.5
10	MAC	88.4
11	CUSA	86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Cincinnati
3	Utah St.
4	Boise St.
5	Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Southern Miss.
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Houston	Florida Int’l.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Temple	Georgia Southern
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Utah St.	UCLA
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	UAB	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Memphis
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Northwestern
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	South Florida
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	Minnesota
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Hawaii
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Miami (Fla.)	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Army	Washington
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	TCU
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Stanford	Wisconsin
Music City	SEC	ACC	Indiana	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Syracuse	Tennessee
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Kentucky
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	Fresno St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Texas A&M	Nebraska
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Auburn	Penn St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	SMU	North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	South Carolina	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Air Force
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Purdue	Boise St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Georgia
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Michigan
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

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2019 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

Current Penn State and former Vanderbilt football coach James Franklin once said, “The three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, AFC, and SEC.”  Even though Clemson has taken Alabama to the woodshed twice in three years, the SEC is still the class of college football.  Clemson has no rival in the ACC like Alabama has in the SEC.  There are no Georgia, LSU, Florida, or Texas A&M types in the ACC.  Clemson played Texas A&M last year; it was a close game, and the Aggies had a chance to win it.  They go to Clemson early this season, and it is probably the only game Clemson will have to worry about until the Playoffs.

In the East Division, Georgia is the only team that has won the SEC Championship in the last 10 seasons.  The Bulldogs won the 2017 title, and they led Alabama in the National Championship Game until Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench and became the best quarterback to wear the Crimson since Ken Stabler and Joe Namath.  Georgia lost to LSU last season and then led Alabama into the second half in the Championship Game, before Tua rallied the Tide again.  Can the third year be the charm?  Coach Kirby Smart has star quarterback Jake Fromm and talented running back D’Andre Swift back behind a tough offensive line.  The receiving corps is thin on experience but has some talent, and with Fromm throwing the ball, the passing game will top 200 yards a game.

The Bulldog defense had a little trouble stopping some enemy quarterbacks last year, but the secondary will be improved in 2019.  The Bulldog defense should yield 17 or less points per game, and Georgia has a chance to go 12-0 and get that third chance in a row to stop the Tide.

Florida won 10 games in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach in the Swamp.  The Gators should be Georgia’s principle competitor this year, but Mullen has some rebuilding to do on the attack side.  Feleipe Franks is a near star at quarterback.  If he stays healthy, Franks should pass for 3,000 yards this year, as Florida has a receiving corps that rivals Alabama’s in the league.  A defense that returns a lot up front and in back could give the Gators a chance in Jacksonville against the Bulldogs.

Unless an appeal is successful, Missouri will be on probation this year and not eligible for the SEC Championship Game, the Playoffs, or a bowl.  The Tigers might be the dark horse in the division, and if eligibility is restored, this team might be good enough to sneak into the division title picture, probably in a three-way tie.  Former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant replaces Drew Lock at quarterback, and the Missouri offense will be a little different, using Bryant’s ability to run.  The Tigers have an excellent receiving corps, led by a potential Mackie Award-winning tight end Albert Okwuegbunam.  The Missouri defense is not up to the standards of Florida and Georgia, but Coach Barry Odom has been gifted with a plum of a schedule this year.  The Tigers have a chance to go to Georgia on November 9 with an 8-0 record.

South Carolina and Tennessee are teams in transition.  The Gamecocks are trying to stay relevant against a tough schedule, while Tennessee is trying to return to relevance after several years under .500 in the SEC.  The Gamecocks are looking at a mild rebuilding year with a young, inexperienced defense that gave up more than 27 points last year.  Having to compete with Florida and Georgia is tough, but USC has three tough non-conference opponents, in rival Clemson plus North Carolina and Appalachian St.

Tennessee returns the most starters of any team in a power 5 conference, and the Vols have a rather strong group of redshirt freshmen available for second year coach Jeremy Pruitt.  Pruitt is a master defensive specialist, and the Volunteers will improve on their 2018 numbers of 28 points and 377 yards per game allowed.  The Big Orange offense was inconsistent last year, and it won’t be championship quality this year.  With Jim Chaney brought on board as offensive coordinator, Tennessee should be a little more consistent in 2019, and the Vols should improve to the plus side of .500 and make a bowl game.

Kentucky had its best season since 1977 in 2018, but the Wildcats face a major rebuilding year under Coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats lost All-American Josh Allen off the defense, and even if they returned the rest of that unit, it would mean the defense would be weaker.  Unfortunately, UK lost six other starters from this side of the ball, and it was defense that allowed UK to win 10 games last year.  The offense also lost seven starters, including star running back Benny Snell.  Terry Wilson is a serviceable quarterback, but he’s not going to shred defensive backfields like Fromm or Franks in the East.

Vanderbilt is the perennial choice for last place in the East Division, but Coach Derek Mason has been able to produce bowl eligibility twice in three years, even having to play a tough non-conference foe in those years.  The Commodores lost star quarterback Kyle Shurmur, but they bring in former Ball State starter Riley Neal, and Neal has the talent to equal or even top the production given by Shurmur.  With running back Keyshawn Vaughn returning after leading the SEC in rushing, and with a receiving corps that is deep and talented, the Commodores could average more than 400 total yards and 30 points per game this year.  Unfortunately, the defense may give up even more, and that is why Vandy might not be as dandy in 2019.  The losses of secondary stars Joejuan Williams and Ladarius Wiley will be tough on an inexperienced pass defense.

In the West, Alabama is the odds-on favorite to go 12-0, win the SEC Championship Game, and then win the semifinal game in the Playoffs, where a rematch with Clemson will excite college football fans from coast to coast.  In the Nick Saban years in Tuscaloosa, the Tide has had numerous stars drafted into the NFL, and it looked Saban had a little rebuilding to do.  At Alabama, one future star replaces a former star.  There is no such thing as rebuilding when you perpetually have the number one recruiting class in college football.  With Tagovailoa returning at quarterback, and with the best receiving corps outside of the NFL, Alabama should have no trouble topping 40 or even 45 points and 300-350 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide has the SEC’s best defense yet again, but they could be a tad vulnerable against some tough running backs and top of the line quarterbacks (like Fromm).  It will not be a cakewalk for the Crimson Tide this year.  One team is liable to upset them along the way, but whether that team can also finish 7-1 in the league and win the crown is highly unlikely.

LSU appears to have the best chance of dethroning the King.  The Tigers won 10 games last year but did not compete with Alabama, losing at home 29-0.  Coach Ed Orgeron has done a fine job recruiting talent to Baton Rouge, and in quarterback Joe Burrow, he has a potentially great passer, something that has prevented the Tigers from beating Alabama in recent years.  Defensively, the Tigers have the best defense not wearing crimson, and the LSU secondary might be the best in the nation.  It will give the Tigers a chance to stop Tua and the Tide.  An early game against Texas in Austin should give the nation a great look to see if LSU has what it takes to knock off the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium in November.

Texas A&M faces an impossible schedule.  They play Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia, which is just plain brutal.  Second year coach Jimbo Fisher has worked wonders in his short time in College Station, but the A&M defense is going to be battered and bruised by these top notch offenses.  The Aggies could average more than 40 points per game in the other eight contests, and it would not be a surprise to see them upset one of those four powers.  At the same time, Auburn, Mississippi State, and South Carolina might sneak up and upset the Aggies.  8-4 is about the best that can be expected under these circumstances.

Auburn also has an impossible schedule this year, as in addition to Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M in the West, the Tigers have their annual game against Georgia, and then they must commence play against a tough Oregon team in a neutral site game.  With the loss of Jarrett Stidham and his top two targets, the offense may take a step backwards.  The defense should be quite strong, but in the SEC West, the Tigers could lose a lot of 21-17 games.  Coach Gus Malzahn is in a bit of a pickle on the Plains, and if War Eagles don’t win nine times this year, Gus may be on the bus out of town.

Mississippi State might be strong enough to compete for a division title in the Pac-12 or Big 12, but in the SEC West, they are probably not even in the top four.  In a league with incredibly talented defenses, the Bulldogs had the best of all in 2018, holding nine teams under 14 points.  Still, it led to only an 8-5 season, and the Maroons have issues on the offensive side of the ball this year, especially the all-important passing game.  Only a strong chance of going 4-0 outside the league will guarantee the Bulldogs bowl eligibility.

Arkansas might be the true sleeper of the league this year.  Second year coach Chad Morris had a major transition when he came to Fayetteville and switched the Razorbacks from a smash mouth offense to a more finesse spread offense.  He didn’t have the personnel to make the offense shine.  He will have a lot more of the necessary pieces this season, and he has a quarterback that can make the offense go.  Ben Hicks was Morris’s quarterback at SMU, when the Mustangs passed for close to 300 yards and scored 38 points per game in 2017.  He won’t replicate those numbers in the SEC, but Arkansas should top 28 points per game and challenge for a 6-6 record and bowl eligibility.

Ole Miss comes off probation this year, and the Rebels can become eligible for a bowl once again.  Unfortunately, the Rebels face a major rebuilding and transitioning with new offensive and defensive coordinators.  The offense welcomes Rich Rodriguez, and his read-option spread to the SEC.  The West Division foes have many years experience facing a nearly identical offense at Auburn, so it will not be something new and surprising.  The Rebels will not be as talented or competent at Auburn running this offense, so Ole Miss should see a considerable dip in production on this side of the ball.  Of course, losing quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and three star receivers would hurt no matter what offense was being run.  Defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre has a lot more experience to work with on his side of the ball, but the Rebels lack the talent to compete against the rest of the West.  It could be a long year in Oxford.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Southeastern Conference Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall
1	Georgia	233	1789
2	Florida	21	1499
3	Missouri	3	1149
4	S. Carolina	1	883
5	Tennessee	1	804
6	Kentucky	1	798
7	Vanderbilt	0	358
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall
1	Alabama	253	1813
2	LSU	5	1493
3	Texas A&M	0	1268
4	Auburn	1	1090
5	Mississippi St.	1	769
6	Ole Miss	0	504
7	Arkansas	0	343
	Championship Game Winner		Overall Votes
	Alabama		203
	Georgia		49
	LSU		3
	Mississippi St.		1
	Tennessee		1
	Florida		1
	South Carolina		1
	Auburn		1

 

The PiRate Ratings show just how strong the league begins the 2019 season.  Ten teams begin 2019 at least 10 points better than the average FBS school.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–SEC
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	126.2	123.6	126.6	125.5
Florida	120.5	117.8	119.5	119.2
Missouri	115.3	112.4	115.3	114.3
S. Carolina	114.0	112.2	113.9	113.4
Tennessee	112.6	111.6	111.1	111.8
Kentucky	109.5	107.5	108.3	108.4
Vanderbilt	104.3	103.3	103.4	103.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	135.6	130.6	136.4	134.2
L S U	123.3	120.4	122.0	121.9
Texas A&M	118.6	116.6	117.0	117.4
Auburn	116.8	114.4	115.9	115.7
Mississippi St.	117.0	112.5	116.7	115.4
Ole Miss	102.0	101.1	100.7	101.3
Arkansas	100.0	100.5	99.3	100.0
SEC Averages	115.4	113.2	114.7	114.4

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall
1	Georgia	8-0	12-1
2	Florida	6-2	10-2
3	Missouri	5-3	9-3
4	Tennessee	3-5	7-5
5	South Carolina	3-5	6-6
6	Kentucky	2-6	6-6
7	Vanderbilt	2-6	5-7
West Division
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall
1	Alabama	8-0	13-0*
2	LSU	6-2	10-2
3	Texas A&M	5-3	8-4
4	Auburn	4-4	8-4
5	Mississippi St.	3-5	7-5
6	Ole Miss	2-6	5-7
7	Arkansas	1-7	5-7
*	Alabama picked to win SEC Championship Game

 

Coaches That Could Be In Line To Get A Top 10 Job

Most of the coaches are already at a program that either is a top 10 job or has the potential to be.  However, there is one coach that could advance to a bigger program

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

 

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Will Muschamp, South Carolina

 

Malzahn’s seat is considerably hotter than Muschamp’s seat.  If Auburn does not find a way to finish in the top three in the SEC West, there will most likely be a change on the Plains.

 

Top Quarterbacks

We have been showcasing three and sometimes four quarterbacks in the other conferences, but there is NFL Draft potential deep into the ranking of SEC quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Feleipe Franks, Florida

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Kelly Bryant, Missouri

Jake Bentley, South Carolina

Joe Burrow, LSU

Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee

 

Best Offense

Alabama

Georgia

Missouri

 

Best Defense

Alabama

LSU

Florida

 

Coming Tomorrow:  It’s finally here!  This is week 0 of the NCAA Football season.  There are two games Saturday, and that means we will debut the full regular season ratings.  Look for our first weekly report tomorrow.

Here’s how we expect to release our information this year.

Mondays: Updated College Football Ratings and Spreads for the week’s FBS games

Tuesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the week’s games

Thursdays: Our PiRate Rating picks for the week’s college and NFL games

Very Important Reminder: The members of the PiRate Ratings do not wager on football games.  We issue our selections just for entertainment purposes only and remind you that they are presented free of charge.  You get what you paid for, so don’t go wagering your mortgage payment on our advice.

That said, the PiRate Picks have returned narrow overall profits for four consecutive seasons.  Our claim to fame is finding Money Line Parlays that return better than even money odds.  Thus, we can hit on just 40% of them and still turn a profit, because the average parlay has +150 to +180 odds.  This means that if you place $1 on a parlay at +180 odds, if you win, you will receive $2.80 back from the Nevada books (Your $1 investment plus a profit of $1.80 for winning the parlay).  If you win 30% of your wagers at +150, you will turn a profit of 5%.  If you can win one of every three parlays at an average of +150, your profit is 16.7%, more than the average return in the stock market over time.  Of course, over time, your chances of profiting in the stock market nears 100%, where in football wagering,  your chances of profiting remains at 47.6%, unless you have inside information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Bowls & Playoffs

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday	December 15
New Mexico Bowl		2:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah St.	North Texas	11.6	10.2	12.4
Cure Bowl		2:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Louisiana	9.3	7.5	7.3
Las Vegas Bowl		3:30 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	Arizona St.	2.8	3.7	3.4
Camellia Bowl		5:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern	Eastern Michigan	-4.7	-4.2	-4.3
New Orleans Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Middle Tennessee	-0.6	-0.7	-0.2
Tuesday	December 18
Boca Raton Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
UAB	Northern Illinois	-0.6	0.7	-0.2
Wednesday	December 19
Frisco Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
San Diego St.	Ohio U	-8.7	-9.8	-9.4
Thursday	December 20
Gasparilla Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Florida	Marshall	-1.9	-2.8	-3.0
Friday	December 21
Bahamas Bowl		12:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Florida Int’l.	9.8	7.9	9.3
Idaho Potato Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	BYU	-11.1	-10.0	-11.2
Saturday	December 22	12:00 PM on ESPN
Birmingham Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Wake Forest	-2.3	0.7	0.3
Armed Forces Bowl		3:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Army	-1.3	-1.5	-1.2
Dollar General Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Troy	5.6	5.8	5.1
Hawaii Bowl		10:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Hawaii	Louisiana Tech	-3.3	-3.6	-4.0
Wednesday	December 26
First Responder Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Boston College	-0.3	1.7	0.5
Quick Lane Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Minnesota	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.6	-11.4
Cheez-it Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	California	0.4	1.2	-0.8
Thursday	December 27	1:30 PM on ESPN
Independence Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Duke	Temple	6.4	4.1	5.0
Pinstripe Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wisconsin	Miami (Fla.)	-6.5	-7.5	-7.0
Texas Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baylor	Vanderbilt	-0.4	-2.1	-1.1
Friday	December 28
Music City Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Auburn	Purdue	6.8	7.2	8.4
Camping World Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	West Virginia	1.0	0.8	1.2
Arizona Bowl		5:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Nevada	Arkansas St.	3.6	2.2	1.6
Alamo Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa St.	Washington St.	-3.3	-3.9	-3.6
Saturday	December 29
Peach Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida	Michigan	-9.7	-9.9	-9.6
Belk Bowl		12:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Carolina	Virginia	5.9	4.8	6.6
Cotton Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Clemson	Notre Dame	12.6	12.9	14.3
Orange Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	Oklahoma	19.2	18.7	20.8
Monday	December 31
Redbox Bowl		3:00 PM on Fox
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	Michigan St.	-0.8	1.0	0.4
Military Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Cincinnati	1.9	-0.2	1.0
Sun Bowl		2:00 PM on CBS
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Stanford	Pittsburgh	5.3	4.2	6.1
Liberty Bowl		3:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	Oklahoma St.	12.0	12.1	13.1
Holiday Bowl		7:00 PM on FS1
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah	Northwestern	6.0	6.1	6.7
Gator Bowl		7:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Texas A&M	-2.9	-2.7	-4.0
Tuesday	January 1
Outback Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN2
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa	Mississippi St.	-7.5	-7.8	-9.3
Citrus Bowl		1:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kentucky	Penn St.	-6.7	-5.6	-6.5
Fiesta Bowl		1:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
LSU	Central Florida	2.9	1.5	3.0
Rose Bowl		5:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	Washington	6.9	7.1	6.6
Sugar Bowl		8:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia	Texas	14.9	14.3	17.1
Monday	January 7
National Championship Game		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bama or Okla.	Clem or N. Dame

For those that need to know–these ratings include the list of star players that are sitting out their bowl so as not to risk injury prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.  For example, Will Grier will not play for West Virginia, and that is enough to switch the Mountaineers from favorite to underdog.  This includes a list through Saturday, December 9.

NOTE:  The PiRate Ratings will commence with college basketball coverage as soon as all the major conference teams have played their tenth game.  Our rating is meaningless until every team has played 10 games.

Once again, we have combined all three of our sub-ratings into one more accurate rating.  We will issue spreads on weekend games through the conference tournaments and then spreads on the conference tournament games.

Additionally, starting in Mid-January, we will see the return of our Bracketology Gurus, who in two years of existence have gotten all 68 teams in the tournament one year and 67 of the 68 teams in the other.  We hand-picked 12 not-so-angry men that love college basketball and devote about the same amount of time in analyzing college basketball data as we analyze Major League Baseball.

 

 

What If… An NCAA Playoffs With No Committee Choices

Four teams are happy.  At least three teams are sad and feel slighted.  Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been invited to the playoffs.  Ohio State and Georgia were jilted.

There could be an argument for Oklahoma and Notre Dame over Ohio State and Georgia.  On the other hand, the folks that know best, those sharps in Nevada, would tell you that Georgia is the third best team in the nation.  Many computers will tell you that on December 29, 2018, Ohio State would be a better team than Oklahoma.

Imagine if specially appointed committees chose other things for the rest of us.  How would you like some insider former politicians explaining to you why Candidate A will be your President instead of Candidate B, even though all the political experts say that Candidate B would be the better Chief Excutive?

What is a special committee of psychologists chose who you will marry based on their criteria.  You may be in love with Michelle, but they may choose Kelly for you because she can balance a checkbook and you cannot?

What if the NFL had to choose just four teams for the playoffs.  This year, there are five really good teams in the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, and Texans.  Maybe the Bears and Chargers are also among the four best.  Do you want a 12-4 division winner not making the NFL Playoffs?

Of course you don’t.  And, the fandom of college football doesn’t buy for a minute that the Selection Committee knows what it’s doing.  Let’s see any of them pick games against the spread.  If they are true experts, then they will put up results that make Billy Walters look like an amateur.

The four team playoff did nothing to solve the problems of the two-team BCS National Championship Game it replaced.  In fact, this year, you could make an excellent argument that just putting Alabama against Clemson would be a better option than picking four out of six or seven deserving teams.

Any legitimate FBS Playoffs must allow every FBS team a chance to play their way into said playoffs.  There are 130 FBS teams.  There needs to be no more than 64 top level teams and preferably 32, but let’s not even talk about separating the Power 5 from the Group of 5.  Let’s talk about honest realignment into 7 conferences of 16 teams  and 1 conference of 18 teams.  In an even better world, two FBS teams would drop down to FCS, leaving 128 teams.

Divide each conference into two divisions.  Every team within a division will play each other during the regular season plus three teams in the other division.  In the 18-team conference, there will be just two teams against the other division.  The rhyme and reason to which schools a team in the other division would play would be made by the league with a rotating schedule so that a different three teams would be played every year, possibly using the NFL’s strategy of having the prior first place team in one division playing the prior first place team in the other division and so on down to the prior last place teams playing each other.

At the end of the season, the top team in each division of each conference would then make the 16-team playoff.  In the first round, the division winners of each conference would play to determine the conference champion.  This would leave eight teams for eight playoff spots.

These conference championship games could be played on neutral sites like the current Power Five Conference Championship Games, or on the home field of the team with the better conference record with set tiebreakers to determine the higher seed if there is a tie.

With the number down to eight, the next round could be played on home fields of the higher seeds as determined by criteria that all teams and all fans will know, just like home field is determined in the NFL.  At no time will a committee of so-called experts determine who is in these playoffs and who will be the home team.

After this second round of the playoffs, the final four can then be played like it is today.

This would give every team a chance to play for the national title, just like all 350 Division 1 basketball teams have a chance.  If you think this isn’t fair to Alabama or Clemson to have to play more games to become national champion, then you must absolutely hate March Madness when Sister Jean and her Loyola Ramblers or Butler or Wichita State can make a run to the Final Four.  You must hate the fact that a Gonzaga can advance from a small program into one of the top 10 in the nation.

If the entire FBS has a chance to win the national title, then all programs will have a chance to do what Gonzaga has done in basketball.

Another bonus could be in scheduling.  Instead of an SEC team like Georgia scheduling Austin Peay and Massachusetts, or Alabama scheduling The Citadel, Arkansas State, and Louisiana (the one in Lafayette and not Baton Rouge), the national schedule makers could schedule Alabama and Oklahoma, or Georgia and Michigan.

What about the FBS vs. FCS games?  Why not give each FBS team two preseason games against FCS teams, where the FBS team pays the FCS team a check just like they do now?  With all the extra billions coming into this new paradigm, the FBS teams could keep these FCS programs solvent without putting a 63-3 pasting on them in a regular season game.

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 29-December 3, 2018

Our Land Sharps have become the 1970’s Boston Red Sox.  Most years during this decade, the Red Sox had a division lead well into multiple seasons only to suffer a disappointing finish and close with a mediocre record or just short of winning the division.  In one year, they lost by a half-game that is obviously the shortest losing margin ever.  In one year, they lost in a one-game playoff.  In another year, they led the division into September only to finish in a second place tie 1 1/2 games out.  Yes, there was 1975, the year Baltimore’s great teams of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s began to fall apart, and a year before the Yankees began their fantastic run.  It was like 1967 all over again, as the rest of the pack fell apart in September.

Our five Land Sharps were in the equivalent of first place in the football season equivalent of the first 120 games.  All five sported winning records with fat returns on investment.  We wrote about how incredible this feat was–that five people at random would contribute to this site and all beat the spread by healthy margins through October.

Ah, but the Autumn winds were definitely Raiders to our Land Sharps’ bank accounts.  As we lampoon the month as “No Fave November, the underdogs began to have their days. Teams that were winning easily and covering deflated spreads began to feel the effects of the long grind.  Teams with nothing to lose began to play their future prospects, especially those that could still play multiple games and take a red shirt under the new rules.  Certain players began to feel the pressure of playing for a division title or stay in contention for the NCAA Playoffs.  Weather began to affect games and lower scores.  All in all, once November football began, the underdogs began covering the spread a tiny bit more than in previous weeks.  Some of this could also have been attributed to the public falling in love with teams that won big in September and October.

Well, it affected our Land Sharps.  Two of the five have performed like the 1977 Chicago Cubs.  If you don’t remember the 1977 Cubs, they were more than 20 games over .500 in the first half of the season and running away with the division, just like the 1969 Cubs.  However, the 1977 squad completely reversed in the second half, losing so many games that they ended the season 81-81, a full 21 games out of first place.

The other three Land Sharps have done a little better, but all five have given away some investment to the mighty Books in November.

We now come to Championship Week.  Except in a couple of cases where teams are playing last-minute replacement games to make up for the September hurricane, the teams playing this week are all top-rated squads.  There is no decisive underdog that can over-perform, and the players will be fighting tooth and nail to their last ounce of energy to win this week.  It is almost like September again, except there are more injuries and players playing while injured to some extent.  We think, or at least we hope the Land Sharps will close with a rush to reclaim their prior financial fame.

Ironically, as our Land Sharps have struggled in November, the PiRate Ratings have been on fire with back-to-back winning weeks.  We will probably jinx ourselves by revealing this, but we have been on a big hot streak with our NFL 10-point Teasers.  In fact, in the last two weeks, we are 7-0, and in the last five weeks, it is 20-7.  Our college picks belong in the sewer, but since we are here for entertainment purposes only, and we know about 65% of you reading this come here for college football, we will continue to issue both college and pro football selections.  Just please take our advice: NEVER wager real currency (or the stuff they pass off as real) on the selections you see made here.  You have some presents to buy for your relatives, so don’t end up having to give them that 10-year old fruitcake (can you really tell the difference between fresh and 10-years old?), because you cannot afford the Isotoner gloves after you lost all the money betting on one of our goofy parlays.

Because this week’s schedule featured a limited schedule, we allowed the Sharps to pick as few as one game up to a maximum of five games.  None chose the easy way out and selected just one or two games.  Our Sharps chose three, four, or five games.

1. Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 38-29-0  56.7%

Return on Investment: +9.1%

California +3 vs. Stanford

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

2. Buckeye Michelle

Season: 32-26-1  55.2%

Return on Investment: +5.8%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Ohio St. -14 vs. Northwestern

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

3. Stewed Meat

Season: 36-31-3  53.7%

Return on Investment: +2.7%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

4. Dean615

Season: 29-27-2  51.8%

Return on Investment: -1.2%

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Georgia +13 1/2 vs. Alabama

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

 

5. Friday Dog 13

Season: 34-33-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.4%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Middle Tennessee -1 1/2 vs. UAB

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE

Moneyline Parlay	2 @ +183
Must Win	Must Lose
Central Florida	Memphis
Boise St.	Fresno St.

 

Moneyline Parlay	3 @ +191
Must Win	Must Lose
Buffalo	Northern Illinois
Virginia Tech	Marshall
Appalachian St.	Louisiana

 

NFL

10-Point Teaser	3-Game Parlay	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Dallas	New Orleans	3	New Orleans
Green Bay	Arizona	4	Green Bay
Baltimore	Atlanta	11	Atlanta
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Cincinnati	15	Cincinnati
L.A. Rams	Detroit	Pk	L.A. Rams
Kansas City	Oakland	4.5	Kansas City
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	N.Y. Jets	19	N.Y. Jets
New England	Minnesota	5.5	New England
Seattle	San Francisco	Pk	Seattle
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Washington	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia
Kansas City	Oakland	24.5	Oakland
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	14.5	N.Y. Giants

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 14

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Friday	November 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mid-American Conference Championship Game @ Buffalo
Buffalo	Northern Illinois	5.9	6.9	7.0
Pac-12 Conference Championship Game @ Santa Clara, CA
Washington	Utah	5.4	4.5	5.4

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX
Oklahoma	Texas	7.2	7.4	7.6
Sun Belt Conference Championship Game @ Appy St.
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	17.8	17.6	18.0
Conference USA Championship Game @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee	UAB	2.3	2.0	2.8
American Athletic Conference Championship Game @ Central FL
Central Florida	Memphis	11.3	10.4	10.8
Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta
Alabama	Georgia	12.8	13.4	13.3
Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ Boise St.
Boise St.	Fresno St.	2.7	3.0	3.2
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC
Clemson	Pittsburgh	30.3	28.7	31.4
Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN
Ohio St.	Northwestern	15.5	15.4	16.0

Other Saturday Games

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Marshall	12.6	8.6	10.7
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	30.9	29.9	30.5
South Carolina	Akron	30.2	28.2	30.4
California	Stanford	-5.2	-5.0	-5.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Iowa St.	Drake	42.7
Liberty	Norfolk St.	26.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4
2	Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3
3	Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2
4	Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4
9	Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
21	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3
22	Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8
23	Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6
24	Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7
25	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
26	S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9
30	Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1
40	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
54	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
55	Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7
68	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
69	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
70	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
71	Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
76	Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3
77	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
78	U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9
79	Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5
85	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0
111	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
112	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
113	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
118	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
119	Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3	8-0	11-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0	1-7	3-8
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5	5-3	8-4
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3	8-0	12-0
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9	5-3	8-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1	6-2	7-5
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6	4-4	5-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0	8-1	11-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6	7-2	9-3
Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7	6-3	7-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	8-1	11-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1	8-1	8-4
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3	7-1	8-4
Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5	6-2	8-3
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9	7-1	9-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3	x	5-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7	7-1	10-2
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8	2-6	4-7
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6	6-2	7-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6	7-1	10-2
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7	7-1	10-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4	7-2	9-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8	5-3	7-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6	4-4	7-4
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3	6-3	9-3
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2	7-1	11-1
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4	4-4	6-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4	8-0	12-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8	7-1	9-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5	5-3	7-5
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
2	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
3	ACC	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top Group of 5

Central Florida will get the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid with a win over Memphis this week in the CUSA Championship Game.  If Memphis pulls off the upset, then UCF could still sneak in depending on how the loss looks.

Should UCF fall by a considerable margin because Mackenzie Milton is out for the season, then Boise State could move above the Golden Knights should the Broncos defeat Fresno State for the second time.

Should Fresno State beat Boise State, and Memphis beat Central Florida, then there could be some issues with the awarding of Bowl Bids.  Because Army doesn’t play Navy until December 8, and the announcement of the bowl bids is December 3, then Army could be excluded even if they blowout Navy by 50 points.  In this instance, Central Florida would probably still get the bid at 11-1.  Had Army defeated Duke at the beginning of the season, then at 11-1 with a loss only to Oklahoma (a game they came close to winning), then the Bowl Committee would have been in a heap of trouble, having to make alternate announcements pending what Army did versus Navy.

At 10-2, Army may still get a chance to play a Power 5 opponent in a bowl game.  Coach Jeff Monken would be a cinch to be offered a Power 5 job if he was not in the Paul Johnson mode.  Monken’s triple option offense is stronger than Georgia Tech’s this year, and his defense is considerably better.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

This week, you will see many of the bowl projection sites beginning to come to agreement on the top bowl games.  No doubt, almost every projection will have Alabama in the Cotton Bowl against either Oklahoma or Ohio State, while Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the Orange Bowl.

We thought about this for a long time Saturday night as Clemson and Alabama continued to dominate.  It looked so much like the Playoffs could be narrowed to two teams.  However, we thought about something.  Georgia is not going to lay over and die for the Crimson Tide to roll over.  The Bulldogs have a bad taste in their mouth from last year, where they could smell the National Championship Trophy in the second half of the title game, before some freshman named Tua came off the bench in the second half and looked like a combination of Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

We have noticed the teams that have given Alabama the most trouble through the Nick Saban years.  These teams have physical defenses and offenses with dual-threat quarterbacks that can act as another running back while still passing like stars.  Think about Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, or DeShaun Watson.  Even Chad Kelly had legs and could take off and run.  These are the teams that gave the Crimson Tide the most trouble in the last decade.

In the last few weeks, Alabama’s defense has been exposed by this read and react style of offense.  The Citadel’s triple option basically embarrassed Alabama in the first half.  Auburn’s spread option offense did some damage, but Jarrett Stidham does not have the legs to motor on the keeper like the QBs that have outscored Alabama to victory.

Here’s the thing.  Just like Alabama last year, Georgia has their not-so-secret weapon sitting on the bench waiting to be this year’s Tua Tagovailoa.  Freshman sensation Justin Fields possesses the same skills as Newton, Manziel, and Watson.  He has the potential to lead Georgia to an upset victory and totally throw the FBS Playoffs into disarray.

What if Georgia beat Alabama?  Assuming Clemson easily dismisses Pittsburgh, then Clemson would be number one, Georgia and Notre Dame would be number two and three in either order, and Alabama would fall to number four.  Ohio State and Oklahoma would be left out.  Forget Central Florida.  Even if Bama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State, and Texas beats Oklahoma, a Georgia team at 11-2 would get into the playoffs before UCF.

If Georgia were to upset Alabama, then four SEC teams would most likely make the NY6 bowls.  The Bulldogs and Tide would make the playoffs.  Florida would most likely make the Peach Bowl, and LSU would probably edge out Penn State and others for the Sugar Bowl.

There are 81 bowl eligible teams as of today.  Virginia Tech is a win over Marshall this weekend from becoming bowl eligible and making it  82.  Liberty can get to 6-6 with a win over Norfolk State, but they have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility as a transition team to FBS once 78 teams became bowl eligible.

If you are a fan of a Mountain West, Mid-American, or Sun Belt Conference team that is 6-6 today, you better cheer hard for Marshall to knock off Virginia Tech.  There are already three teams too many for the bowls, and if the Hokies win, they will jump over any of the Group of 5 teams hoping to land in a bowl.  Teams like Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Wyoming, and Louisiana-Monroe are holding out for a miracle.  At most one of these teams will make it to a bowl, and if Virginia Tech wins this weekend, all four are likely to have empty envelopes.  Eastern Michigan could still top Western Michigan, but the Broncos have a larger fan base than the Eagles.

What you see below is our look at the bowls should Georgia beat Alabama.  You can look at all the others on the Internet to see what it would look like if the status quo remains, but we believe you will want to read this alternative look.

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Memphis	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Tulane	[Army]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Wake Forest]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	TCU
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Western Michigan]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	[San Diego St.]
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Georgia Tech	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Washington St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Notre Dame	Georgia
Orange			Clemson	Alabama
Championship Game			Georgia	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Syracuse	Louisville	10.5	Syracuse
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	1.5	Texas A&M
Kansas St.	Kansas	22	Kansas

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
West Virginia	TCU	1.5	WVU
Eastern Michigan	Akron	3	EMU
Duke	North Carolina	Pk	Duke

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arizona St.	UCLA	2.5	Arizona St.
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	9.5	Oklahoma
Purdue	Minnesota	2.5	Purdue

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulane	East Carolina	3.5	Tulane
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	10	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Auburn	24.5	Auburn

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cinciannati	East Carolina	2.5	Cincinnati
Texas Tech	Texas	8.5	Texas
UAB	Southern Miss.	2.5	UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	4	NC St.
Florida	South Carolina	20	S. Car.
BYU	Massachusetts	27	UMass
Troy	Georgia Southern	14.5	Ga. Southern

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Kentucky	7	Kentucky
Colorado	Washington St.	7	Washington St.
Louisiana	Georgia St.	1	Louisiana
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	7.5	UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win	Must Lose
Ohio U	Miami (O)
Northern Illinois	Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win	Must Lose
South Carolina	Florida
Kansas	Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Chicago	6.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Arizona	3.5	Kansas City
Tennessee	New England	6.5	New England
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10	Indianapolis

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	L.A. Chargers	3	L.A. Chargers
Miami	Green Bay	3	Green Bay
Seattle	L.A. Rams	3	L.A. Rams
Dallas	Philadelphia	6.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	31.5	Over
Cincinnati	New Orleans	41	Over
Cleveland	Atlanta	37.5	Over
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	24	Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Kent St.	22.1	23.1	23.3

 

Wednesday	November 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Ohio U	-3.7	-3.3	-2.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.2	-0.1	0.5

 

Thursday	November 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	11.7	13.2	13.5

 

Friday	November 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	Louisville	22.9	22.1	23.2
Boise St.	Fresno St.	-2.0	-2.3	-2.9

 

Saturday	November 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Temple	1.8	2.5	1.5
Rutgers	Michigan	-40.1	-39.9	-42.5
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-1.4	-0.6	-0.8
Boston College	Clemson	-19.6	-19.4	-20.6
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	13.3	12.4	13.2
Tennessee	Kentucky	-13.0	-11.2	-13.3
Massachusetts	BYU	-16.5	-15.3	-16.5
Virginia	Liberty	26.1	26.9	25.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	1.2	1.6	0.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	15.8	16.1	16.0
Central Florida	Navy	30.0	28.3	30.8
West Virginia	TCU	10.6	11.0	11.6
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	4.3	5.0	5.0
Kansas St.	Kansas	7.3	7.4	8.1
Eastern Michigan	Akron	7.4	7.7	7.8
Indiana	Maryland	-1.4	-1.1	-0.7
Connecticut	SMU	-18.9	-18.4	-19.5
Duke	North Carolina	13.9	12.9	13.7
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	16.1	16.7	16.7
Iowa	Northwestern	9.0	9.0	8.9
Cincinnati	South Florida	12.9	13.2	13.9
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	-6.5	-5.4	-7.2
Tulane	East Carolina	15.3	16.1	15.9
Utah	Oregon	9.7	8.1	9.5
Colorado	Washington St.	-9.1	-7.5	-8.2
Marshall	Charlotte	18.1	18.4	18.4
Old Dominion	North Texas	-15.6	-14.6	-16.5
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	8.0	10.0	8.5
Nevada	Colorado St.	12.8	12.2	13.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	32.1	31.9	33.6
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-17.5	-16.1	-18.8
Georgia	Auburn	15.9	14.6	15.6
Penn St.	Wisconsin	8.8	8.8	9.5
Alabama	Mississippi St.	24.1	24.3	24.7
Air Force	New Mexico	14.2	13.7	14.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	19.1	17.4	20.0
Nebraska	Illinois	12.8	12.0	12.8
Minnesota	Purdue	-14.2	-13.9	-14.7
Memphis	Tulsa	12.6	14.5	13.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.1	2.4	4.3
USC	California	3.9	4.5	3.1
Texas Tech	Texas	1.2	1.5	1.0
Arkansas	LSU	-16.4	-18.2	-18.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	35.3	35.7	38.0
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-20.3	-22.5
Louisiana	Georgia St.	9.0	9.2	10.1
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	20.9	19.3	20.9
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	-7.7	-6.4	-8.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	28.6	27.9	30.9
UTSA	Florida Int’l.	-10.3	-9.9	-10.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	21.8	20.2	21.6
UAB	Southern Miss.	17.2	16.8	17.8
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
Arizona St.	UCLA	16.3	15.5	18.6
San Diego St.	UNLV	22.7	21.7	23.1

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0
4	Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4
5	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
6	Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7
7	Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0
8	Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2
11	Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8
12	Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
14	Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9
15	Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6
17	Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3
18	West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0
19	Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6
20	Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4
21	Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2
22	Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0
23	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
24	Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5
26	Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2
27	Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5
28	Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3
29	Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1
30	Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0
31	N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9
32	Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6
33	Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3
34	Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1
35	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
36	Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0
37	Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8
38	Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5
39	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
40	Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2
41	Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0
42	Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0
43	Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2
44	U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7
45	T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9
46	California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9
47	Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1
49	Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
50	Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6
51	Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4
54	Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0
55	Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8
56	Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2
57	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
58	Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
59	Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8
60	Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4
61	Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2
62	Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1
64	BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6
65	U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6
66	Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5
67	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4
68	Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7
69	N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
71	N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5
72	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
74	Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5
75	Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5
76	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
77	U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0
78	Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9
79	Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5
80	Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4
81	Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1
82	Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9
83	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
84	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4
85	SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0
86	Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6
87	Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6
88	Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5
89	Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3
90	Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6
91	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
92	Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9
93	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
94	Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2
95	Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0
96	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5
98	Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4
99	Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0
100	Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8
101	Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9
102	Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7
103	Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8
104	UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6
105	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
106	Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5
107	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
108	Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1
109	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
110	East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2
111	Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7
112	Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5
113	Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0
114	Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5
115	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
116	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
117	Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2
118	Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1
119	U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0
120	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
121	San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7
122	Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8
123	Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3
124	U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3
125	South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7
126	Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8
127	U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0
128	Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6
129	N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6
130	Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6	5-0	8-0
Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8	4-1	5-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	4-1	8-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-2	7-2
East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-5	2-6
Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9	2-3	5-4
Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8	4-1	7-2
Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4	3-2	4-5
SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0	3-2	4-5
Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0	1-4	2-7
Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9	1-4	2-7
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	6-0	9-0
Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8	4-1	7-2
N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9	2-2	6-2
Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0	4-2	7-2
Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7	2-5	4-5
Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1	1-4	4-5
Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2	0-6	2-7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	3-3	5-4
Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1	2-3	5-4
Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6	2-3	6-3
Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0	3-2	4-4
Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7	4-2	6-3
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1	4-1	5-4
N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6	1-5	1-7
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7	5-1	8-1
West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0	5-1	7-1
Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2	4-2	5-3
Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3	4-2	6-3
Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5	3-3	5-4
Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2	2-4	5-4
T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9	2-4	4-5
Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2	1-5	3-6
Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2	3-3	5-4
Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0	6-0	8-1
Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0	5-1	8-1
Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7	5-2	6-3
Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	3-3	6-3
Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	3-3	5-4
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7	0-6	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9	3-3	6-3
Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2	4-2	5-4
Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1	4-2	6-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-4
Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4	1-5	2-7
Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9	1-5	4-5
Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9	2-4	4-5
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	2-3	4-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	3-2	5-3
Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5	5-1	6-3
Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0	4-1	6-3
Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-5	1-8
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-2	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6	6-0	8-1
N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5	3-2	7-2
Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6	4-1	6-3
Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8	2-3	3-5
U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3	2-3	3-6
U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0	1-4	1-8
Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0	0-6	1-9
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	9-0
Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6	x	7-2
BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6	x	4-5
Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7	x	4-4
Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5	4-1	6-3
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4	5-0	8-1
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4	3-2	3-6
Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5	2-3	4-4
Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5	1-4	2-7
Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9	5-0	6-3
Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6	3-3	5-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1	0-6	1-9
Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0	5-0	8-1
Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0	4-1	7-2
Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5	1-4	3-6
Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-4	3-6
Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4	5-0	8-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	4-1	7-2
Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3	3-2	5-4
Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1	3-3	6-5
U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0	0-5	2-7
San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7	1-4	1-8
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	3-3	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5	5-1	8-1
Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2	3-3	6-3
California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9	2-4	5-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-5	2-7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3	4-3	6-3
Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8	3-3	5-4
U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7	4-3	5-4
Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4	4-3	5-5
Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2	2-4	5-4
U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0	2-4	2-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4	6-1	8-1
Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8	1-4	5-4
Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0	5-2	7-2
Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3	4-3	6-3
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	4-3	5-3
Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	6-0	9-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-3	6-3
L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2	4-2	7-2
Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6	3-3	6-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5	3-3	5-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-4	5-4
Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	4-1	6-2
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	5-0	7-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7	4-1	7-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-3	5-4
Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3	1-4	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8	2-3	5-4
UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6	3-2	5-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-3	4-5
South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7	1-4	2-7
Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8	1-4	3-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Fresno St.
3. Utah St.
4. Cincinnati
5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Houston	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	SMU	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Buffalo]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Boston College	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	UL-Monroe
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Kentucky
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	North Carolina St.	West Virginia
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Kansas	4	Iowa St.
Air Force	Army	3	Army
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	3.5	Eastern Michigan
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wyoming	San Jose St.	3.5	Wyoming
Illinois	Minnesota	0.5	Minnesota
Cincinnati	Navy	3	Cincinnati
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Boston College	Virginia Tech	12	Virginia Tech
Michigan	Penn St.	20.5	Penn St.
Missouri	Florida	4	Florida
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	SMU	3.5	Houston
Northwestern	Notre Dame	1	Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	7	Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Northern Illinois	Akron	19.5	Akron
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	0.5	Middle Tennessee
Kentucky	Georgia	4	Georgia
Rice	UTEP	14	UTEP

 

Money Line	Parlays
3 Teams	@ +172
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Kentucky
Notre Dame	Northwestern
3 Teams	@ +125
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida	Missouri
Minnesota	Illinois
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky
4 Teams	@+180
Must Win	Must Lose
Syracuse	Wake Forest
Army	Air Force
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan
Wyoming	San Jose St.
2 Teams	@+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win	Must Lose
Texas A&M	Auburn
Arizona St.	Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	13	Oakland
Chicago	Buffalo	Pk	Chicago
Tampa Bay	Carolina	3.5	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Kansas City	1.5	Kansas City
Washington	Atlanta	12	Atlanta
Green Bay	New England	4.5	New England

 

13-point Teasers	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	18	Detroit
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	16	Pittsburgh
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	15	L.A. Chargers
Houston	Denver	9	Denver
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	32.5	Over
Minnesota	Detroit	35.5	Over
Cleveland	Kansas City	38.5	Over
Miami	N.Y. Jets	32	Over
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	57.5	Under
Washington	Atlanta	33.5	Over
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	35	Over
New England	Green Bay	66.5	Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Miami (O)	8.1	8.5	7.0
Bowling Green	Kent St.	2.5	1.6	2.6

 

Wednesday	October 31
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Ball St.	20.1	19.3	20.4

 

Thursday	November 1
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Ohio U	-2.0	-1.6	-1.9
Akron	Northern Illinois	-2.7	-2.4	-2.7
Central Florida	Temple	15.0	15.2	14.6

 

Friday	November 2
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia	Pittsburgh	7.3	8.3	7.2
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	16.7	15.3	17.2
Arizona	Colorado	4.9	2.6	4.4

 

Saturday	November 3
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	Houston	-9.4	-10.6	-10.8
Purdue	Iowa	-0.3	0.1	-0.2
Georgia St.	Texas St.	8.9	8.0	9.2
Wake Forest	Syracuse	-4.1	-4.7	-5.4
Kentucky	Georgia	-10.3	-8.5	-11.3
Cincinnati	Navy	9.7	9.2	10.5
Ohio St.	Nebraska	25.6	24.9	27.1
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.3	-11.6
Florida	Missouri	1.6	1.3	1.3
Miami (Fla.)	Duke	6.7	7.0	6.7
North Carolina St.	Florida St.	7.7	8.0	7.8
East Carolina	Memphis	-15.1	-16.9	-16.5
Virginia Tech	Boston College	-2.6	-1.3	-2.8
Maryland	Michigan St.	-8.6	-7.8	-8.9
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	-9.2	-9.3	-10.7
Texas	West Virginia	0.9	0.3	0.9
Wisconsin	Rutgers	30.9	29.5	32.0
Northwestern	Notre Dame	-11.5	-10.6	-10.6
Illinois	Minnesota	-8.6	-8.2	-9.4
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	13.0	12.1	13.2
Army	Air Force	12.3	12.5	12.4
South Florida	Tulane	4.7	6.1	4.3
Coastal Carolina	Appalachian St.	-16.8	-16.1	-17.6
Boise St.	BYU	13.1	12.1	12.6
New Mexico	San Diego St.	-11.5	-10.3	-12.2
Wyoming	San Jose St.	19.3	18.4	20.6
Washington St.	California	8.6	9.9	8.6
Southern Miss.	Marshall	-8.5	-8.0	-9.2
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia Southern	-7.1	-8.8	-7.6
Arizona St.	Utah	-6.8	-6.6	-7.8
Oregon	UCLA	13.4	13.6	16.3
Washington	Stanford	9.8	10.2	10.6
Kansas	Iowa St.	-12.2	-12.1	-13.9
Auburn	Texas A&M	4.6	4.8	6.2
Tennessee	Charlotte	24.9	22.8	23.9
Mississippi St.	Louisiana Tech	27.6	23.1	27.2
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	-6.6	-6.7	-6.9
Massachusetts	Liberty	1.2	3.8	1.5
TCU	Kansas St.	8.4	8.5	7.8
Tulsa	Connecticut	17.8	16.6	19.0
Clemson	Louisville	47.2	44.7	48.9
Michigan	Penn St.	9.1	10.6	9.8
Ole Miss	South Carolina	-5.0	-4.4	-4.1
Rice	UTEP	-3.6	-4.0	-4.8
Troy	Louisiana	11.7	10.8	11.9
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	13.3	12.9	14.3
UAB	UTSA	20.7	19.2	20.8
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic	-1.3	1.7	-0.8
LSU	Alabama	-17.5	-15.8	-17.5
UNLV	Fresno St.	-28.7	-26.7	-28.9
Hawaii	Utah St.	-24.1	-23.7	-26.5

Oregon St.

USC

-20.4

-21.1

-21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
New Mexico St.	Alcorn St.	10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3
2	Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1
3	Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8
4	Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7
5	Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0
6	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
7	Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9
8	Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8
9	L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4
10	Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8
11	Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6
12	Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9
13	Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5
14	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
15	Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6
17	Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9
18	Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8
19	West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8
20	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
21	Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1
22	Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9
23	Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9
24	Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4
26	Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1
27	Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0
28	Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9
29	Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7
30	Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5
31	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
32	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
33	N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7
34	Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3
35	Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2
36	Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1
37	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
38	Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6
39	Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6
40	Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6
41	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5
42	Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8
43	U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0
44	Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9
45	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
46	T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2
47	California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7
48	Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9
49	Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1
50	Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0
51	Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0
54	Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0
55	Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7
56	Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7
57	Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4
58	Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1
59	Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9
60	Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9
61	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3
62	Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3
63	Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1
64	Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0
65	BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8
66	Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8
67	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
68	N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5
69	N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2
70	Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2
71	Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1
72	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
73	Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4
74	Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2
75	U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4
76	Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2
77	Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0
78	U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8
79	Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7
80	Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0
81	Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7
82	South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5
83	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4
84	Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1
85	Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8
86	Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7
87	Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3
88	Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2
89	Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0
90	Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5
91	Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4
92	Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1
93	Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4
94	SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3
95	Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2
96	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
97	Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0
98	Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4
99	Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8
100	Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0
101	Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5
102	Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3
103	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
104	Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1
105	Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2
106	Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1
107	Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0
108	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
109	East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2
110	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6
111	U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8
112	Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5
113	Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5
114	Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5
115	Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2
116	Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2
117	W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4
118	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
119	Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4
120	Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2
121	Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1
122	U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1
123	Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8
124	San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4
125	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0
126	Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8
128	Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0
129	N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8
130	Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1	3-1	7-1
South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5	3-1	7-1
East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5	4-0	7-1
Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5	2-2	3-5
Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4	1-3	2-6
SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3	2-2	3-5
Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8	0-4	1-7
AAC Averages	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1	5-0	8-0
Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	6-2
N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7	1-2	5-2
Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6	3-2	6-2
Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9	2-4	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4	1-3	4-4
Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1	0-5	2-6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9	2-3	4-4
Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9	2-2	5-3
Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1	1-3	5-3
Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6	3-1	4-3
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	4-1	6-2
Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0	3-1	4-4
N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5	1-4	1-6
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0	4-1	7-1
West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8	4-1	6-1
Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9	3-2	4-3
Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5	4-1	6-2
Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2	3-2	5-3
Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6	2-3	5-3
T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2	1-4	3-5
Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9	1-4	3-5
Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5	4-2	5-3
Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0	3-2	5-3
Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-2	6-2
Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1	3-2	4-4
Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0	3-2	5-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-3
Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3	1-4	4-4
Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0	1-4	2-6
Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0	1-4	3-5
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7	3-1	5-2
Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3	4-1	5-3
Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2	1-3	3-5
Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0	4-0	6-2
Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4	0-4	1-7
Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8	3-2	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2	3-2	7-2
U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8	5-0	7-1
Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1	4-1	6-2
Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1	2-2	3-4
U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8	0-4	0-8
Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2	0-5	1-8
CUSA Averages	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	8-0
Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1	x	6-2
BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8	x	4-4
Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	3-6
N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8	x	2-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3	4-0	7-1
Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0	3-1	5-3
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4	3-1	3-5
Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4	2-2	4-3
Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4	2-2	4-4
Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7	2-3	4-5
Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0	4-0	5-3
Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2	4-1	6-3
Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0	0-5	1-8
Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5	2-3	3-6
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3	4-0	7-1
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5	4-1	6-2
Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7	1-4	3-5
Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8	1-4	3-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-3	3-5
Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	4-0	7-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	3-1	6-2
Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0	3-2	5-4
U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8	0-4	2-6
Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5	3-2	6-4
San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4	1-3	1-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8	4-2	6-3
Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6	3-2	5-3
Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7	4-1	7-1
Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8	2-3	5-3
California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7	2-3	5-3
Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1	1-4	2-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9	4-2	6-2
U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0	3-3	4-4
Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9	2-3	4-4
Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0	3-3	4-5
Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1	2-3	5-3
U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4	2-3	2-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8	5-1	7-1
Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7	0-4	4-4
Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8	5-1	7-1
Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1	4-2	6-2
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	3-3	4-3
Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1	1-4	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3	5-0	8-0
L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6	2-3	5-3
Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4	3-2	5-3
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	3-1	5-2
Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4	4-0	7-1
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	4-0	6-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-2	5-3
Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2	1-3	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5	1-3	4-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-2	4-4
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0	1-3	2-6
Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0	0-4	2-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
7	MWC	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
10	CUSA	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Fresno St.
3	Houston
4	Utah St.
5	Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	[California]	Utah St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Eastern Michigan]	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Coastal Carolina
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	South Florida	[Arizona]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	Middle Tennessee
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Western Michigan]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Memphis	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Maryland	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Georgia Tech	Minnesota
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Virginia Tech	Tennessee
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Troy
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	Mississippi St.
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Georgia
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Pittsburgh
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Purdue	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	South Carolina
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Kentucky	Houston
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.