Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Georgia | 138.1 |
2 | Alabama | 132.8 |
3 | Ohio St. | 129.7 |
4 | Michigan | 124.3 |
5 | Utah | 121.9 |
6 | Oklahoma St. | 121.8 |
7 | Notre Dame | 121.6 |
8 | Oklahoma | 121.1 |
9 | Clemson | 119.3 |
10 | Baylor | 118.7 |
11 | Texas A&M | 118.6 |
12 | Cincinnati | 118.5 |
13 | Iowa St. | 118.1 |
14 | Arkansas | 117.4 |
15 | Wisconsin | 116.5 |
16 | U C L A | 115.0 |
17 | Minnesota | 113.5 |
18 | Ole Miss | 113.5 |
19 | Kentucky | 113.2 |
20 | NC State | 112.7 |
21 | Penn St. | 112.2 |
22 | Purdue | 111.7 |
23 | Tennessee | 111.6 |
24 | Kansas St. | 111.4 |
25 | Auburn | 111.2 |
26 | Michigan St. | 111.1 |
27 | Pittsburgh | 111.1 |
28 | Wake Forest | 110.4 |
29 | Texas Tech | 110.3 |
30 | Arizona St. | 110.3 |
31 | Miami (Fla.) | 110.1 |
32 | Louisiana | 109.6 |
33 | L S U | 109.4 |
34 | Nebraska | 109.3 |
35 | Iowa | 109.2 |
36 | Houston | 108.9 |
37 | Oregon | 108.2 |
38 | Texas | 107.5 |
39 | Washington St. | 107.3 |
40 | Western Kentucky | 107.1 |
41 | West Virginia | 107.0 |
42 | Maryland | 106.9 |
43 | BYU | 106.6 |
44 | Oregon St. | 106.5 |
45 | Boise St. | 106.4 |
46 | Mississippi St. | 105.9 |
47 | North Carolina | 105.4 |
48 | South Carolina | 105.4 |
49 | Florida St. | 105.3 |
50 | Louisville | 104.9 |
51 | Florida | 104.6 |
52 | California | 104.6 |
53 | Liberty | 104.4 |
54 | Air Force | 104.3 |
55 | Georgia St. | 104.1 |
56 | Coastal Carolina | 104.0 |
57 | Central Michigan | 104.0 |
58 | UCF | 103.7 |
59 | U S C | 103.6 |
60 | Appalachian St. | 103.5 |
61 | Virginia | 103.4 |
62 | Utah St. | 103.3 |
63 | Washington | 103.1 |
64 | Fresno St. | 103.0 |
65 | T C U | 101.8 |
66 | SMU | 101.8 |
67 | Illinois | 101.6 |
68 | San Diego St. | 101.5 |
69 | U A B | 101.4 |
70 | Army | 101.2 |
71 | Western Michigan | 101.2 |
72 | Missouri | 100.3 |
73 | East Carolina | 100.0 |
74 | Boston College | 99.3 |
75 | Miami (Ohio) | 99.2 |
76 | Tulsa | 98.7 |
77 | Nevada | 98.7 |
78 | Colorado | 98.6 |
79 | Syracuse | 97.9 |
80 | Toledo | 96.6 |
81 | Virginia Tech | 95.6 |
82 | Tulane | 95.2 |
83 | Georgia Tech | 95.1 |
84 | U T S A | 94.6 |
85 | Memphis | 94.6 |
86 | Marshall | 94.4 |
87 | Stanford | 94.3 |
88 | Wyoming | 94.3 |
89 | Indiana | 93.3 |
90 | Middle Tennessee | 93.0 |
91 | Hawaii | 92.9 |
92 | Navy | 92.8 |
93 | Rutgers | 92.8 |
94 | Northern Illinois | 92.4 |
95 | Arizona | 92.3 |
96 | Northwestern | 91.9 |
97 | South Alabama | 89.8 |
98 | North Texas | 89.5 |
99 | Colorado St. | 88.9 |
100 | San Jose St. | 88.6 |
101 | Kent St. | 88.5 |
102 | Ball St. | 88.4 |
103 | Buffalo | 88.3 |
104 | Troy | 88.0 |
105 | USF | 87.4 |
106 | Georgia Southern | 87.0 |
107 | Eastern Michigan | 86.3 |
108 | Florida Atlantic | 86.3 |
109 | Ohio | 86.1 |
110 | Kansas | 85.7 |
111 | Old Dominion | 85.7 |
112 | U T E P | 85.6 |
113 | U N L V | 85.2 |
114 | Vanderbilt | 84.0 |
115 | UL-Monroe | 83.2 |
116 | Texas St. | 83.0 |
117 | Arkansas St. | 82.8 |
118 | Duke | 80.2 |
119 | Rice | 80.0 |
120 | Louisiana Tech | 79.7 |
121 | New Mexico | 78.0 |
122 | Southern Miss. | 77.6 |
123 | Bowling Green | 77.1 |
124 | Charlotte | 77.0 |
125 | Akron | 72.5 |
126 | Temple | 72.4 |
127 | New Mexico St. | 71.8 |
128 | Connecticut | 68.6 |
129 | Florida Int’l. | 65.9 |
130 | UMass | 64.1 |
January 10, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Football Final 2021-22 Ratings
January 3, 2022
December 5, 2021
PiRate Ratings College Football–Selection Sunday
This Week’s College Football Game
December 11 | PiRate | Mean | Bias | |
Army | Navy | 11.2 | 11.4 | 10.4 |
Final Bowl Projections
Bowl | Team | Team |
Added Bowl Game* | Ball St. | Nevada |
Bahamas | Middle Tennessee | Toledo |
Cure | SMU | Appalachian St. |
Boca | Kent St. | Liberty |
New Mexico | UTEP | San Diego St. |
Independence | BYU | UTSA |
Lending Tree | Central Michigan | Marshall |
L. A. | Utah St. | Oregon St. |
New Orleans | UAB | Coastal Carolina |
Myrtle Beach | Old Dominion | Georgia St. |
Famous Idaho Potato | Western Michigan | Boise St. |
Frisco | North Texas | Air Force |
Armed Forces | Tulsa | Army |
Gasparilla | Louisville | Florida |
Hawaii | Memphis | Hawaii |
Camellia | Northern Illinois | Louisiana |
Quick Lane | Eastern Michigan | Wyoming |
Military | Virginia | East Carolina |
Birmingham | Houston | South Carolina |
First Responder | Western Kentucky | Missouri |
Liberty | West Virginia | Mississippi St. |
Holiday | North Carolina St. | UCLA |
Guaranteed Rate | Maryland | Texas Tech |
Fenway | Central Florida | Boston College |
Pinstripe | Virginia Tech | Penn St. |
Cheez-It | Clemson | Iowa St. |
Alamo | Oklahoma | Oregon |
Duke’s Mayo | Wake Forest | Tennessee |
Music City | Purdue | Auburn |
Las Vegas | Wisconsin | Washington St. |
Tax Slayer Gator | Miami (Fla.) | Arkansas |
Tony The Tiger Sun | North Carolina | Arizona St. |
Arizona | Miami (O) | Fresno St. |
Citrus | Iowa | Kentucky |
Outback | Minnesota | Texas A&M |
Texas | Kansas St. | LSU |
Peach | Pitt/Wake | Notre Dame |
Fiesta | Michigan St. | Oklahoma St. |
Rose | Ohio St. | Utah |
Sugar | Baylor | Ole Miss |
Cotton | Michigan | Georgia |
Orange | Alabama | Cincinnati |
Championship | Alabama | Georgia |
- An extra bowl game was added by the NCAA to ensure all 6-win teams could earn bowl invitations. This extra bowl will be played in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and will include two group of 5 teams.
- Teams in bold have officially accepted the bowl bid.
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Georgia | 133.8 |
2 | Alabama | 132.9 |
3 | Ohio St. | 130.4 |
4 | Michigan | 127.5 |
5 | Notre Dame | 121.9 |
6 | Oklahoma St. | 121.5 |
7 | Utah | 121.2 |
8 | Oklahoma | 120.4 |
9 | Iowa St. | 120.1 |
10 | Cincinnati | 119.6 |
11 | Texas A&M | 118.6 |
12 | Clemson | 117.2 |
13 | Wisconsin | 116.5 |
14 | Ole Miss | 116.2 |
15 | Baylor | 116.1 |
16 | U C L A | 115.0 |
17 | Penn St. | 114.8 |
18 | Arkansas | 114.7 |
19 | Auburn | 114.1 |
20 | Pittsburgh | 113.9 |
21 | Kentucky | 113.1 |
22 | NC State | 112.7 |
23 | Mississippi St. | 112.0 |
24 | Tennessee | 111.9 |
25 | L S U | 111.5 |
26 | Purdue | 111.4 |
27 | Minnesota | 111.1 |
28 | Arizona St. | 110.3 |
29 | Oregon St. | 110.3 |
30 | North Carolina | 110.2 |
31 | Miami (Fla.) | 110.1 |
32 | BYU | 109.8 |
33 | Louisiana | 109.7 |
34 | Florida | 109.6 |
35 | West Virginia | 109.4 |
36 | Wake Forest | 109.3 |
37 | Kansas St. | 109.3 |
38 | Nebraska | 109.3 |
39 | Iowa | 109.3 |
40 | Appalachian St. | 109.2 |
41 | Washington St. | 109.2 |
42 | Oregon | 109.0 |
43 | Michigan St. | 108.2 |
44 | Texas | 107.5 |
45 | Boise St. | 106.4 |
46 | Houston | 106.0 |
47 | Nevada | 105.4 |
48 | Louisville | 105.3 |
49 | Florida St. | 105.3 |
50 | Coastal Carolina | 104.7 |
51 | California | 104.6 |
52 | Texas Tech | 104.2 |
53 | Fresno St. | 104.1 |
54 | Air Force | 103.9 |
55 | U S C | 103.6 |
56 | Virginia | 103.4 |
57 | Washington | 103.1 |
58 | Virginia Tech | 102.6 |
59 | Army | 102.5 |
60 | Central Michigan | 102.1 |
61 | T C U | 101.8 |
62 | SMU | 101.8 |
63 | Illinois | 101.6 |
64 | Western Kentucky | 101.4 |
65 | South Carolina | 100.6 |
66 | Missouri | 100.3 |
67 | East Carolina | 100.0 |
68 | Maryland | 99.9 |
69 | Utah St. | 99.5 |
70 | Toledo | 99.4 |
71 | Boston College | 99.3 |
72 | UCF | 98.8 |
73 | Tulsa | 98.7 |
74 | Georgia St. | 98.7 |
75 | Liberty | 98.6 |
76 | Colorado | 98.6 |
77 | Miami (Ohio) | 98.4 |
78 | San Diego St. | 98.4 |
79 | U A B | 98.2 |
80 | Syracuse | 97.9 |
81 | U T S A | 97.7 |
82 | Tulane | 95.2 |
83 | Georgia Tech | 95.1 |
84 | Memphis | 94.6 |
85 | Western Michigan | 94.5 |
86 | Stanford | 94.3 |
87 | Marshall | 94.3 |
88 | Rutgers | 93.8 |
89 | Ball St. | 93.8 |
90 | Indiana | 93.3 |
91 | Hawaii | 92.9 |
92 | Wyoming | 92.4 |
93 | Arizona | 92.3 |
94 | Eastern Michigan | 92.1 |
95 | Northwestern | 91.9 |
96 | Northern Illinois | 91.7 |
97 | Navy | 91.5 |
98 | Kent St. | 90.4 |
99 | North Texas | 90.3 |
100 | Middle Tennessee | 90.2 |
101 | South Alabama | 89.8 |
102 | Colorado St. | 88.9 |
103 | San Jose St. | 88.6 |
104 | Buffalo | 88.3 |
105 | Troy | 88.0 |
106 | USF | 87.4 |
107 | Georgia Southern | 87.0 |
108 | Florida Atlantic | 86.3 |
109 | Ohio | 86.1 |
110 | Kansas | 85.7 |
111 | Old Dominion | 85.7 |
112 | U N L V | 85.2 |
113 | U T E P | 84.5 |
114 | Vanderbilt | 84.0 |
115 | UL-Monroe | 83.2 |
116 | Texas St. | 83.0 |
117 | Arkansas St. | 82.8 |
118 | Duke | 80.2 |
119 | Rice | 80.0 |
120 | Louisiana Tech | 79.7 |
121 | New Mexico | 78.0 |
122 | Southern Miss. | 77.6 |
123 | Bowling Green | 77.1 |
124 | Charlotte | 77.0 |
125 | Akron | 72.5 |
126 | Temple | 72.4 |
127 | New Mexico St. | 71.8 |
128 | Connecticut | 68.6 |
129 | Florida Int’l. | 65.9 |
130 | UMass | 64.1 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Cincinnati | 119.3 | 118.9 | 120.7 | 119.6 |
Houston | 105.9 | 105.4 | 106.6 | 106.0 |
SMU | 101.7 | 101.5 | 102.1 | 101.8 |
East Carolina | 99.8 | 99.5 | 100.8 | 100.0 |
UCF | 99.0 | 97.7 | 99.8 | 98.8 |
Tulsa | 98.5 | 98.5 | 99.1 | 98.7 |
Tulane | 95.2 | 94.2 | 96.1 | 95.2 |
Memphis | 94.1 | 94.3 | 95.3 | 94.6 |
Navy | 91.3 | 91.1 | 92.1 | 91.5 |
USF | 87.4 | 86.9 | 88.0 | 87.4 |
Temple | 72.3 | 73.0 | 71.8 | 72.4 |
AAC Averages | 96.8 | 96.5 | 97.5 | 96.9 |
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||
Atlantic Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Clemson | 116.7 | 116.8 | 118.0 | 117.2 |
NC State | 112.5 | 112.3 | 113.2 | 112.7 |
Wake Forest | 109.3 | 109.1 | 109.6 | 109.3 |
Louisville | 104.9 | 105.0 | 105.9 | 105.3 |
Florida St. | 104.9 | 105.2 | 105.7 | 105.3 |
Boston College | 99.4 | 99.2 | 99.3 | 99.3 |
Syracuse | 98.0 | 98.0 | 97.8 | 97.9 |
Coastal Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Pittsburgh | 113.4 | 114.3 | 114.2 | 113.9 |
North Carolina | 109.7 | 109.7 | 111.1 | 110.2 |
Miami (Fla.) | 110.4 | 109.8 | 110.2 | 110.1 |
Virginia | 103.3 | 103.8 | 103.0 | 103.4 |
Virginia Tech | 103.0 | 102.5 | 102.4 | 102.6 |
Georgia Tech | 95.1 | 95.1 | 95.0 | 95.1 |
Duke | 80.6 | 80.7 | 79.3 | 80.2 |
ACC Averages | 104.4 | 104.4 | 104.6 | 104.5 |
Big 12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oklahoma St. | 121.8 | 121.5 | 121.3 | 121.5 |
Oklahoma | 121.2 | 119.6 | 120.3 | 120.4 |
Iowa St. | 120.8 | 119.4 | 120.1 | 120.1 |
Baylor | 116.5 | 115.9 | 115.8 | 116.1 |
West Virginia | 110.7 | 109.1 | 108.4 | 109.4 |
Kansas St. | 110.1 | 109.3 | 108.5 | 109.3 |
Texas | 108.5 | 106.8 | 107.2 | 107.5 |
Texas Tech | 104.5 | 104.5 | 103.7 | 104.2 |
T C U | 102.9 | 101.4 | 101.2 | 101.8 |
Kansas | 87.4 | 85.7 | 83.9 | 85.7 |
Big 12 Averages | 110.4 | 109.3 | 109.0 | 109.6 |
Big Ten Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio St. | 130.0 | 130.0 | 131.3 | 130.4 |
Michigan | 126.6 | 127.5 | 128.4 | 127.5 |
Penn St. | 114.0 | 114.6 | 115.8 | 114.8 |
Michigan St. | 108.0 | 108.1 | 108.6 | 108.2 |
Maryland | 100.6 | 99.7 | 99.4 | 99.9 |
Rutgers | 93.2 | 94.7 | 93.5 | 93.8 |
Indiana | 93.3 | 93.0 | 93.4 | 93.3 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Wisconsin | 116.1 | 115.9 | 117.3 | 116.5 |
Purdue | 110.8 | 110.8 | 112.6 | 111.4 |
Minnesota | 110.3 | 111.0 | 112.2 | 111.1 |
Nebraska | 109.0 | 109.1 | 109.8 | 109.3 |
Iowa | 109.1 | 108.9 | 109.9 | 109.3 |
Illinois | 101.1 | 101.6 | 102.2 | 101.6 |
Northwestern | 92.0 | 92.0 | 91.8 | 91.9 |
Big Ten Averages | 108.2 | 108.4 | 109.0 | 108.5 |
Conference USA | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Western Kentucky | 100.3 | 101.7 | 102.2 | 101.4 |
Marshall | 94.0 | 94.3 | 94.7 | 94.3 |
Middle Tennessee | 89.7 | 90.2 | 90.7 | 90.2 |
Florida Atlantic | 86.0 | 86.7 | 86.2 | 86.3 |
Old Dominion | 84.8 | 85.9 | 86.3 | 85.7 |
Charlotte | 76.6 | 77.2 | 77.2 | 77.0 |
Florida Int’l. | 65.9 | 65.9 | 65.8 | 65.9 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
U A B | 98.0 | 98.4 | 98.3 | 98.2 |
U T S A | 97.2 | 98.0 | 98.0 | 97.7 |
North Texas | 89.9 | 90.5 | 90.6 | 90.3 |
U T E P | 84.2 | 85.2 | 84.0 | 84.5 |
Rice | 80.1 | 80.1 | 79.8 | 80.0 |
Louisiana Tech | 80.0 | 80.2 | 78.8 | 79.7 |
Southern Miss. | 77.4 | 78.0 | 77.4 | 77.6 |
CUSA Averages | 86.0 | 86.6 | 86.4 | 86.3 |
FBS Independents | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Notre Dame | 121.1 | 121.9 | 122.7 | 121.9 |
BYU | 109.8 | 109.5 | 110.0 | 109.8 |
Army | 102.5 | 102.5 | 102.5 | 102.5 |
Liberty | 98.5 | 98.6 | 98.6 | 98.6 |
New Mexico St. | 72.1 | 72.7 | 70.7 | 71.8 |
Connecticut | 69.0 | 69.5 | 67.2 | 68.6 |
UMass | 65.2 | 64.6 | 62.4 | 64.1 |
Indep. Averages | 91.2 | 91.3 | 90.6 | 91.0 |
Mid-American Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Ohio) | 99.6 | 98.3 | 97.3 | 98.4 |
Kent St. | 90.4 | 91.1 | 89.7 | 90.4 |
Buffalo | 89.2 | 88.1 | 87.5 | 88.3 |
Ohio | 86.0 | 86.5 | 85.9 | 86.1 |
Bowling Green | 77.6 | 77.8 | 75.8 | 77.1 |
Akron | 73.6 | 72.6 | 71.4 | 72.5 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Central Michigan | 102.9 | 101.8 | 101.5 | 102.1 |
Toledo | 99.8 | 99.4 | 98.9 | 99.4 |
Western Michigan | 94.8 | 94.8 | 93.7 | 94.5 |
Ball St. | 94.8 | 94.2 | 92.5 | 93.8 |
Eastern Michigan | 93.4 | 92.1 | 90.8 | 92.1 |
Northern Illinois | 92.5 | 91.7 | 90.9 | 91.7 |
MAC Averages | 91.2 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 90.5 |
Mountain West Conference | ||||
Mountain Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Boise St. | 106.1 | 106.3 | 106.7 | 106.4 |
Air Force | 103.5 | 103.8 | 104.5 | 103.9 |
Utah St. | 99.1 | 99.9 | 99.6 | 99.5 |
Wyoming | 92.0 | 92.4 | 92.8 | 92.4 |
Colorado St. | 89.1 | 88.9 | 88.8 | 88.9 |
New Mexico | 78.5 | 78.3 | 77.1 | 78.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Nevada | 105.0 | 106.0 | 105.3 | 105.4 |
Fresno St. | 103.2 | 104.3 | 104.9 | 104.1 |
San Diego St. | 98.6 | 98.4 | 98.1 | 98.4 |
Hawaii | 93.0 | 92.9 | 92.8 | 92.9 |
San Jose St. | 88.9 | 89.0 | 87.8 | 88.6 |
U N L V | 85.3 | 85.0 | 85.4 | 85.2 |
MWC Averages | 95.2 | 95.4 | 95.3 | 95.3 |
Pac-12 Conference | ||||
North Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oregon St. | 109.9 | 110.5 | 110.6 | 110.3 |
Washington St. | 108.6 | 109.6 | 109.4 | 109.2 |
Oregon | 108.2 | 109.1 | 109.7 | 109.0 |
California | 103.0 | 105.6 | 105.3 | 104.6 |
Washington | 102.7 | 103.4 | 103.1 | 103.1 |
Stanford | 94.2 | 94.8 | 94.0 | 94.3 |
South Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Utah | 120.9 | 121.3 | 121.3 | 121.2 |
U C L A | 114.5 | 115.1 | 115.4 | 115.0 |
Arizona St. | 109.8 | 110.5 | 110.8 | 110.3 |
U S C | 103.7 | 103.4 | 103.6 | 103.6 |
Colorado | 98.6 | 98.7 | 98.4 | 98.6 |
Arizona | 92.2 | 92.3 | 92.3 | 92.3 |
Pac-12 Averages | 105.5 | 106.2 | 106.2 | 106.0 |
Southeastern Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia | 133.4 | 133.6 | 134.4 | 133.8 |
Kentucky | 112.6 | 113.6 | 113.1 | 113.1 |
Tennessee | 111.8 | 111.7 | 112.0 | 111.9 |
Florida | 109.2 | 110.1 | 109.4 | 109.6 |
South Carolina | 101.1 | 100.7 | 100.2 | 100.6 |
Missouri | 100.4 | 100.7 | 99.9 | 100.3 |
Vanderbilt | 84.1 | 84.0 | 83.9 | 84.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Alabama | 133.0 | 132.4 | 133.3 | 132.9 |
Texas A&M | 118.4 | 118.8 | 118.5 | 118.6 |
Ole Miss | 116.0 | 116.1 | 116.3 | 116.2 |
Arkansas | 114.7 | 114.7 | 114.7 | 114.7 |
Auburn | 114.3 | 113.7 | 114.4 | 114.1 |
Mississippi St. | 111.8 | 112.1 | 112.0 | 112.0 |
L S U | 111.1 | 111.8 | 111.7 | 111.5 |
SEC Averages | 112.3 | 112.4 | 112.4 | 112.4 |
Sunbelt Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Appalachian St. | 108.9 | 108.7 | 110.1 | 109.2 |
Coastal Carolina | 105.5 | 103.8 | 104.6 | 104.7 |
Georgia St. | 98.8 | 98.3 | 98.9 | 98.7 |
Troy | 88.1 | 87.9 | 88.1 | 88.0 |
Georgia Southern | 86.9 | 87.1 | 87.0 | 87.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Louisiana | 110.0 | 109.2 | 110.0 | 109.7 |
South Alabama | 90.1 | 89.8 | 89.4 | 89.8 |
UL-Monroe | 83.5 | 83.4 | 82.7 | 83.2 |
Texas St. | 83.8 | 82.4 | 82.8 | 83.0 |
Arkansas St. | 83.1 | 83.0 | 82.3 | 82.8 |
Sun Averages | 93.9 | 93.4 | 93.6 | 93.6 |
Conference Ratings
Rank | Conference | Rating |
1 | Southeastern | 112.4 |
2 | Big 12 | 109.6 |
3 | Big Ten | 108.5 |
4 | Pac-12 | 106.0 |
5 | Atlantic Coast | 104.5 |
6 | American Athletic | 96.9 |
7 | Mountain West | 95.3 |
8 | Sun Belt | 93.6 |
9 | Independents | 91.0 |
10 | Mid-American | 90.5 |
11 | Conference USA | 86.3 |
December 1, 2021
PiRate Picks–December 3-4, 2021
A November To Remember!
The last three weeks of PiRate Picks have seen an incredible winning streak only seen twice before at this site. In that time, we wagered on 11 different Money Line parlays and single games, all at odds of +150 or more. At 100 imaginary dollars per imaginary wager, we have seen an imaginary return of $2,770.35, for an imaginary profit of $1,670.35. That comes to an imaginary return on investment of 152% !
Last week, we placed a governor on our wagering engine informing you that we had guaranteed ourselves a winning season in imaginary funds, and we had no plans to give the imaginary windfall profits back to the books. We selected two high odds parlays at +201.37 and +150.77. Both of them won for us, although we had to sweat out Alabama’s beating Auburn.
This week being Championship Week, there are few options to choose from with just a tad over a dozen games. We did not have a parlay jump off the sheet. We had to go looking for value and really found very little. If this were for real, we would pocket our profits and withdraw it from the books. But, to not play any parlays would mean you have no reason to read this week’s publication. So, we painstakingly compared odds trying to shop for an extra 5% benefit, and we came up with two parlays that have the odds we want.
If this is your first visit to this site or this weekly feature, here is an important disclaimer: We never play these selections for real. It is strictly an exercise in mathematical fun. We strongly urge you not to play these picks, unless they simply verify the selections you have already considered. We know that about 25-30 of you reading this feature would be considered professional handicappers/players in Nevada and offshore. We don’t worry about your profit/loss from wagering, because that’s your profession and you look at dozens of references. But, if you are reading this and have a legal account with one of the big handicapping corporations, you most likely won’t be able to play these selections at the odds we issue, because we shop around until we find the best odds. In order to replicate our odds, you would have to open accounts with six different books that we have found the best odds this year. Next year, it could be different books entirely.
Here are our two parlays for this week.
December 3-4
Odds: | +185.49 |
Must Win | Opponent |
Kent St. | Northern Illinois |
Pittsburgh | Wake Forest |
Odds: | +205.60 |
Must Win | Opponent |
Oklahoma St. | Baylor |
San Diego St. | Utah St. |
Georgia | Alabama |
November 28, 2021
PiRate Ratings College Football–Championship Week
This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads
Champ 1 | Champ 2 | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Dec. 3 C-USA Championship Game–7 PM EST on CBSSN | ||||
UTSA | Western Kentucky | -1.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 |
Dec. 3 Pac-12 Championship Game–8 PM EST on ABC–Las Vegas | ||||
Utah | Oregon | 8.1 | 7.3 | 6.6 |
Dec. 4 Big 12 Championship Game–12 PM EST on ABC–Arlington, TX | ||||
Oklahoma St. | Baylor | 8.2 | 8.6 | 8.7 |
Dec. 4 MAC Championship Game–12 PM EST on ESPN–Detroit | ||||
Northern Illinois | Kent St. | -3.4 | -5.7 | -5.0 |
Dec. 4 Mountain West Championship Game–3 PM EST on FOX | ||||
San Diego St. | Utah St. | 10.9 | 9.8 | 10.3 |
Dec. 4 Sun Belt Championship Game–3:30 PM EST on ESPN | ||||
Louisiana | Appalachian St. | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Dec. 4 SEC Championship Game–4 PM EST on CBS–Atlanta | ||||
Georgia | Alabama | 7.0 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
Dec. 4 AAC Championship Game–4 PM EST on ABC | ||||
Cincinnati | Houston | 16.4 | 16.5 | 17.1 |
Dec. 4 Big Ten Championship Game–8 PM EST on FOX–Indianapolis | ||||
Michigan | Iowa | 9.9 | 11.1 | 10.6 |
Dec. 4 ACC Championship Game–8 PM EST on ABC–Charlotte | ||||
Pittsburgh | Wake Forest | -1.9 | -0.8 | -1.8 |
Regular Season Game | ||||
Home | Visitor | |||
California | USC | -0.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Georgia | 136.7 |
2 | Ohio St. | 130.4 |
3 | Alabama | 129.9 |
4 | Michigan | 123.6 |
5 | Oklahoma St. | 123.0 |
6 | Notre Dame | 121.9 |
7 | Oklahoma | 120.4 |
8 | Iowa St. | 120.1 |
9 | Cincinnati | 119.6 |
10 | Utah | 118.7 |
11 | Texas A&M | 118.6 |
12 | Clemson | 117.2 |
13 | Wisconsin | 116.5 |
14 | Ole Miss | 116.2 |
15 | U C L A | 115.0 |
16 | Penn St. | 114.8 |
17 | Arkansas | 114.7 |
18 | Baylor | 114.6 |
19 | Auburn | 114.1 |
20 | Iowa | 113.2 |
21 | Kentucky | 113.1 |
22 | NC State | 112.7 |
23 | Wake Forest | 112.4 |
24 | Mississippi St. | 112.0 |
25 | Tennessee | 111.9 |
26 | L S U | 111.5 |
27 | Purdue | 111.4 |
28 | Oregon | 111.4 |
29 | Minnesota | 111.1 |
30 | Pittsburgh | 110.9 |
31 | Arizona St. | 110.3 |
32 | Oregon St. | 110.3 |
33 | North Carolina | 110.2 |
34 | Miami (Fla.) | 110.1 |
35 | BYU | 109.8 |
36 | Appalachian St. | 109.7 |
37 | Florida | 109.6 |
38 | West Virginia | 109.4 |
39 | Kansas St. | 109.3 |
40 | Nebraska | 109.3 |
41 | Louisiana | 109.3 |
42 | Washington St. | 109.2 |
43 | Michigan St. | 108.2 |
44 | Texas | 107.5 |
45 | Boise St. | 106.4 |
46 | Houston | 106.0 |
47 | Nevada | 105.4 |
48 | Louisville | 105.3 |
49 | Florida St. | 105.3 |
50 | U S C | 104.9 |
51 | Coastal Carolina | 104.7 |
52 | Texas Tech | 104.2 |
53 | Fresno St. | 104.1 |
54 | Air Force | 103.9 |
55 | Virginia | 103.4 |
56 | California | 103.3 |
57 | San Diego St. | 103.1 |
58 | Washington | 103.1 |
59 | Virginia Tech | 102.6 |
60 | Army | 102.5 |
61 | Western Kentucky | 102.3 |
62 | Central Michigan | 102.1 |
63 | T C U | 101.8 |
64 | SMU | 101.8 |
65 | Illinois | 101.6 |
66 | South Carolina | 100.6 |
67 | Missouri | 100.3 |
68 | East Carolina | 100.0 |
69 | Maryland | 99.9 |
70 | Toledo | 99.4 |
71 | Boston College | 99.3 |
72 | UCF | 98.8 |
73 | Tulsa | 98.7 |
74 | Georgia St. | 98.7 |
75 | Liberty | 98.6 |
76 | Colorado | 98.6 |
77 | Miami (Ohio) | 98.4 |
78 | U A B | 98.2 |
79 | Syracuse | 97.9 |
80 | U T S A | 96.8 |
81 | Tulane | 95.2 |
82 | Georgia Tech | 95.1 |
83 | Utah St. | 94.8 |
84 | Memphis | 94.6 |
85 | Western Michigan | 94.5 |
86 | Stanford | 94.3 |
87 | Marshall | 94.3 |
88 | Rutgers | 93.8 |
89 | Ball St. | 93.8 |
90 | Kent St. | 93.4 |
91 | Indiana | 93.3 |
92 | Hawaii | 92.9 |
93 | Wyoming | 92.4 |
94 | Arizona | 92.3 |
95 | Eastern Michigan | 92.1 |
96 | Northwestern | 91.9 |
97 | Navy | 91.5 |
98 | North Texas | 90.3 |
99 | Middle Tennessee | 90.2 |
100 | South Alabama | 89.8 |
101 | Colorado St. | 88.9 |
102 | Northern Illinois | 88.7 |
103 | San Jose St. | 88.6 |
104 | Buffalo | 88.3 |
105 | Troy | 88.0 |
106 | USF | 87.4 |
107 | Georgia Southern | 87.0 |
108 | Florida Atlantic | 86.3 |
109 | Ohio | 86.1 |
110 | Kansas | 85.7 |
111 | Old Dominion | 85.7 |
112 | U N L V | 85.2 |
113 | U T E P | 84.5 |
114 | Vanderbilt | 84.0 |
115 | UL-Monroe | 83.2 |
116 | Texas St. | 83.0 |
117 | Arkansas St. | 82.8 |
118 | Duke | 80.2 |
119 | Rice | 80.0 |
120 | Louisiana Tech | 79.7 |
121 | New Mexico | 78.0 |
122 | Southern Miss. | 77.6 |
123 | Bowling Green | 77.1 |
124 | Charlotte | 77.0 |
125 | Akron | 72.5 |
126 | Temple | 72.4 |
127 | New Mexico St. | 71.8 |
128 | Connecticut | 68.6 |
129 | Florida Int’l. | 65.9 |
130 | UMass | 64.1 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Cincinnati | 119.3 | 118.9 | 120.7 | 119.6 |
Houston | 105.9 | 105.4 | 106.6 | 106.0 |
SMU | 101.7 | 101.5 | 102.1 | 101.8 |
East Carolina | 99.8 | 99.5 | 100.8 | 100.0 |
UCF | 99.0 | 97.7 | 99.8 | 98.8 |
Tulsa | 98.5 | 98.5 | 99.1 | 98.7 |
Tulane | 95.2 | 94.2 | 96.1 | 95.2 |
Memphis | 94.1 | 94.3 | 95.3 | 94.6 |
Navy | 91.3 | 91.1 | 92.1 | 91.5 |
USF | 87.4 | 86.9 | 88.0 | 87.4 |
Temple | 72.3 | 73.0 | 71.8 | 72.4 |
AAC Averages | 96.8 | 96.5 | 97.5 | 96.9 |
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||
Atlantic Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Clemson | 116.7 | 116.8 | 118.0 | 117.2 |
NC State | 112.5 | 112.3 | 113.2 | 112.7 |
Wake Forest | 112.3 | 112.1 | 112.8 | 112.4 |
Louisville | 104.9 | 105.0 | 105.9 | 105.3 |
Florida St. | 104.9 | 105.2 | 105.7 | 105.3 |
Boston College | 99.4 | 99.2 | 99.3 | 99.3 |
Syracuse | 98.0 | 98.0 | 97.8 | 97.9 |
Coastal Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Pittsburgh | 110.4 | 111.3 | 111.0 | 110.9 |
North Carolina | 109.7 | 109.7 | 111.1 | 110.2 |
Miami (Fla.) | 110.4 | 109.8 | 110.2 | 110.1 |
Virginia | 103.3 | 103.8 | 103.0 | 103.4 |
Virginia Tech | 103.0 | 102.5 | 102.4 | 102.6 |
Georgia Tech | 95.1 | 95.1 | 95.0 | 95.1 |
Duke | 80.6 | 80.7 | 79.3 | 80.2 |
ACC Averages | 104.4 | 104.4 | 104.6 | 104.5 |
Big 12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oklahoma St. | 123.2 | 123.0 | 122.9 | 123.0 |
Oklahoma | 121.2 | 119.6 | 120.3 | 120.4 |
Iowa St. | 120.8 | 119.4 | 120.1 | 120.1 |
Baylor | 115.1 | 114.4 | 114.2 | 114.6 |
West Virginia | 110.7 | 109.1 | 108.4 | 109.4 |
Kansas St. | 110.1 | 109.3 | 108.5 | 109.3 |
Texas | 108.5 | 106.8 | 107.2 | 107.5 |
Texas Tech | 104.5 | 104.5 | 103.7 | 104.2 |
T C U | 102.9 | 101.4 | 101.2 | 101.8 |
Kansas | 87.4 | 85.7 | 83.9 | 85.7 |
Big 12 Averages | 110.4 | 109.3 | 109.0 | 109.6 |
Big Ten Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio St. | 130.0 | 130.0 | 131.3 | 130.4 |
Michigan | 122.8 | 123.7 | 124.4 | 123.6 |
Penn St. | 114.0 | 114.6 | 115.8 | 114.8 |
Michigan St. | 108.0 | 108.1 | 108.6 | 108.2 |
Maryland | 100.6 | 99.7 | 99.4 | 99.9 |
Rutgers | 93.2 | 94.7 | 93.5 | 93.8 |
Indiana | 93.3 | 93.0 | 93.4 | 93.3 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Wisconsin | 116.1 | 115.9 | 117.3 | 116.5 |
Iowa | 112.9 | 112.7 | 113.9 | 113.2 |
Purdue | 110.8 | 110.8 | 112.6 | 111.4 |
Minnesota | 110.3 | 111.0 | 112.2 | 111.1 |
Nebraska | 109.0 | 109.1 | 109.8 | 109.3 |
Illinois | 101.1 | 101.6 | 102.2 | 101.6 |
Northwestern | 92.0 | 92.0 | 91.8 | 91.9 |
Big Ten Averages | 108.2 | 108.4 | 109.0 | 108.5 |
Conference USA | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Western Kentucky | 101.0 | 102.6 | 103.3 | 102.3 |
Marshall | 94.0 | 94.3 | 94.7 | 94.3 |
Middle Tennessee | 89.7 | 90.2 | 90.7 | 90.2 |
Florida Atlantic | 86.0 | 86.7 | 86.2 | 86.3 |
Old Dominion | 84.8 | 85.9 | 86.3 | 85.7 |
Charlotte | 76.6 | 77.2 | 77.2 | 77.0 |
Florida Int’l. | 65.9 | 65.9 | 65.8 | 65.9 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
U A B | 98.0 | 98.4 | 98.3 | 98.2 |
U T S A | 96.5 | 97.1 | 96.9 | 96.8 |
North Texas | 89.9 | 90.5 | 90.6 | 90.3 |
U T E P | 84.2 | 85.2 | 84.0 | 84.5 |
Rice | 80.1 | 80.1 | 79.8 | 80.0 |
Louisiana Tech | 80.0 | 80.2 | 78.8 | 79.7 |
Southern Miss. | 77.4 | 78.0 | 77.4 | 77.6 |
CUSA Averages | 86.0 | 86.6 | 86.4 | 86.3 |
FBS Independents | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Notre Dame | 121.1 | 121.9 | 122.7 | 121.9 |
BYU | 109.8 | 109.5 | 110.0 | 109.8 |
Army | 102.5 | 102.5 | 102.5 | 102.5 |
Liberty | 98.5 | 98.6 | 98.6 | 98.6 |
New Mexico St. | 72.1 | 72.7 | 70.7 | 71.8 |
Connecticut | 69.0 | 69.5 | 67.2 | 68.6 |
UMass | 65.2 | 64.6 | 62.4 | 64.1 |
Indep. Averages | 91.2 | 91.3 | 90.6 | 91.0 |
Mid-American Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Ohio) | 99.6 | 98.3 | 97.3 | 98.4 |
Kent St. | 93.2 | 94.2 | 92.8 | 93.4 |
Buffalo | 89.2 | 88.1 | 87.5 | 88.3 |
Ohio | 86.0 | 86.5 | 85.9 | 86.1 |
Bowling Green | 77.6 | 77.8 | 75.8 | 77.1 |
Akron | 73.6 | 72.6 | 71.4 | 72.5 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Central Michigan | 102.9 | 101.8 | 101.5 | 102.1 |
Toledo | 99.8 | 99.4 | 98.9 | 99.4 |
Western Michigan | 94.8 | 94.8 | 93.7 | 94.5 |
Ball St. | 94.8 | 94.2 | 92.5 | 93.8 |
Eastern Michigan | 93.4 | 92.1 | 90.8 | 92.1 |
Northern Illinois | 89.7 | 88.6 | 87.8 | 88.7 |
MAC Averages | 91.2 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 90.5 |
Mountain West Conference | ||||
Mountain Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Boise St. | 106.1 | 106.3 | 106.7 | 106.4 |
Air Force | 103.5 | 103.8 | 104.5 | 103.9 |
Utah St. | 94.4 | 95.2 | 94.7 | 94.8 |
Wyoming | 92.0 | 92.4 | 92.8 | 92.4 |
Colorado St. | 89.1 | 88.9 | 88.8 | 88.9 |
New Mexico | 78.5 | 78.3 | 77.1 | 78.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Nevada | 105.0 | 106.0 | 105.3 | 105.4 |
Fresno St. | 103.2 | 104.3 | 104.9 | 104.1 |
San Diego St. | 103.3 | 103.1 | 103.0 | 103.1 |
Hawaii | 93.0 | 92.9 | 92.8 | 92.9 |
San Jose St. | 88.9 | 89.0 | 87.8 | 88.6 |
U N L V | 85.3 | 85.0 | 85.4 | 85.2 |
MWC Averages | 95.2 | 95.4 | 95.3 | 95.3 |
Pac-12 Conference | ||||
North Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oregon | 110.5 | 111.6 | 112.2 | 111.4 |
Oregon St. | 109.9 | 110.5 | 110.6 | 110.3 |
Washington St. | 108.6 | 109.6 | 109.4 | 109.2 |
California | 101.7 | 104.4 | 103.9 | 103.3 |
Washington | 102.7 | 103.4 | 103.1 | 103.1 |
Stanford | 94.2 | 94.8 | 94.0 | 94.3 |
South Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Utah | 118.6 | 118.8 | 118.8 | 118.7 |
U C L A | 114.5 | 115.1 | 115.4 | 115.0 |
Arizona St. | 109.8 | 110.5 | 110.8 | 110.3 |
U S C | 105.0 | 104.6 | 105.0 | 104.9 |
Colorado | 98.6 | 98.7 | 98.4 | 98.6 |
Arizona | 92.2 | 92.3 | 92.3 | 92.3 |
Pac-12 Averages | 105.5 | 106.2 | 106.2 | 106.0 |
Southeastern Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia | 136.2 | 136.6 | 137.5 | 136.7 |
Kentucky | 112.6 | 113.6 | 113.1 | 113.1 |
Tennessee | 111.8 | 111.7 | 112.0 | 111.9 |
Florida | 109.2 | 110.1 | 109.4 | 109.6 |
South Carolina | 101.1 | 100.7 | 100.2 | 100.6 |
Missouri | 100.4 | 100.7 | 99.9 | 100.3 |
Vanderbilt | 84.1 | 84.0 | 83.9 | 84.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Alabama | 130.2 | 129.4 | 130.2 | 129.9 |
Texas A&M | 118.4 | 118.8 | 118.5 | 118.6 |
Ole Miss | 116.0 | 116.1 | 116.3 | 116.2 |
Arkansas | 114.7 | 114.7 | 114.7 | 114.7 |
Auburn | 114.3 | 113.7 | 114.4 | 114.1 |
Mississippi St. | 111.8 | 112.1 | 112.0 | 112.0 |
L S U | 111.1 | 111.8 | 111.7 | 111.5 |
SEC Averages | 112.3 | 112.4 | 112.4 | 112.4 |
Sunbelt Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Appalachian St. | 109.2 | 109.2 | 110.6 | 109.7 |
Coastal Carolina | 105.5 | 103.8 | 104.6 | 104.7 |
Georgia St. | 98.8 | 98.3 | 98.9 | 98.7 |
Troy | 88.1 | 87.9 | 88.1 | 88.0 |
Georgia Southern | 86.9 | 87.1 | 87.0 | 87.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Louisiana | 109.7 | 108.7 | 109.5 | 109.3 |
South Alabama | 90.1 | 89.8 | 89.4 | 89.8 |
UL-Monroe | 83.5 | 83.4 | 82.7 | 83.2 |
Texas St. | 83.8 | 82.4 | 82.8 | 83.0 |
Arkansas St. | 83.1 | 83.0 | 82.3 | 82.8 |
Sun Averages | 93.9 | 93.4 | 93.6 | 93.6 |
Conference Ratings
Rank | Conference | Rating |
1 | Southeastern | 112.4 |
2 | Big 12 | 109.6 |
3 | Big Ten | 108.5 |
4 | Pac-12 | 106.0 |
5 | Atlantic Coast | 104.5 |
6 | American Athletic | 96.9 |
7 | Mountain West | 95.3 |
8 | Sun Belt | 93.6 |
9 | Independents | 91.0 |
10 | Mid-American | 90.5 |
11 | Conference USA | 86.3 |
Playoff and Bowl Projections
Note: 83 teams gained bowl eligibility. There are spots for 82 teams. One team will be left out. As of today, we project Wyoming to be that team.
Bowl | Team | Team |
Bahamas | Western Kentucky | Central Michigan |
Cure | Memphis | Georgia St. |
Boca | Liberty | Miami (O) |
New Mexico | UTEP | Utah St. |
Independence | BYU | UTSA |
Lending Tree | Kent St. | Old Dominion |
L. A. | Fresno St. | Arizona St. |
New Orleans | UAB | Louisiana |
Myrtle Beach | SMU | Coastal Carolina |
Famous Idaho Potato | Eastern Michigan | Boise St. |
Frisco | Nevada | Ball St. |
Armed Forces | Army | Marshall |
Gasparilla | Virginia | Florida |
Hawaii | Houston | San Diego St. |
Camellia | Northern Illinois | Appalachian St/ |
Quick Lane | Toledo | Missouri |
Military | Louisville | South Carolina |
Birmingham | Central Florida | Auburn |
First Responder | Tulsa | North Texas |
Liberty | Kansas St. | Mississippi St. |
Holiday | Virginia Tech | UCLA |
Guaranteed Rate | Maryland | Middle Tennessee |
Fenway | East Carolina | Boston College |
Pinstripe | North Carolina | Penn St. |
Cheez-It | Wake Forest | West Virginia |
Alamo | Iowa St. | Oregon St. |
Duke’s Mayo | North Carolina St. | Texas A&M |
Music City | Purdue | Tennessee |
Las Vegas | Wisconsin | Oregon |
Tax Slayer Gator | Clemson | Arkansas |
Tony The Tiger Sun | Miami (Fla.) | Washington St. |
Arizona | Western Michigan | Air Force |
Citrus | Michigan St. | Ole Miss |
Outback | Minnesota | Kentucky |
Texas | Texas Tech | LSU |
Peach | Pittsburgh | Ohio St. |
Fiesta | Oklahoma | Notre Dame |
Rose | Iowa | Utah |
Sugar | Alabama | Baylor |
Cotton | Michigan | Oklahoma St. |
Orange | Georgia | Cincinnati |
Championship | Georgia | Michigan |
November 14, 2021
PiRate Ratings College Football–November 16-20, 2021
This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Eastern Michigan | Western Michigan | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
Ohio U | Toledo | -7.9 | -6.7 | -6.2 |
Miami (O) | Bowling Green | 26.3 | 24.6 | 25.8 |
Ball St. | Central Michigan | 0.3 | 0.9 | -0.7 |
Buffalo | Northern Illinois | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Duke | Louisville | -19.5 | -19.2 | -22.0 |
Louisiana Tech | Southern Miss. | 12.2 | 12.0 | 11.4 |
Houston | Memphis | 14.6 | 13.5 | 14.0 |
Washington St. | Arizona | 13.4 | 14.2 | 13.5 |
Nevada | Air Force | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
UNLV | San Diego St. | -12.4 | -12.6 | -12.0 |
Pittsburgh | Virginia | 8.9 | 8.7 | 9.4 |
Cincinnati | SMU | 15.5 | 14.7 | 15.7 |
Army | Massachusetts | 39.0 | 39.5 | 41.5 |
Central Florida | Connecticut | 34.0 | 32.4 | 37.6 |
Miami (Fla.) | Virginia Tech | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.6 |
North Carolina St. | Syracuse | 16.2 | 15.8 | 16.4 |
Akron | Kent St. | -9.9 | -12.2 | -11.4 |
Ohio St. | Michigan St. | 22.6 | 22.5 | 23.7 |
Coastal Carolina | Texas St. | 28.7 | 28.8 | 29.9 |
Maryland | Michigan | -11.0 | -13.2 | -14.0 |
Missouri | Florida | -7.0 | -8.0 | -8.3 |
West Virginia | Texas | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
Tennessee | South Alabama | 21.4 | 21.5 | 22.6 |
Boston College | Florida St. | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Liberty | Louisiana | -2.4 | -0.6 | -1.3 |
Northwestern (Wrig) | Purdue | -11.3 | -11.0 | -13.0 |
Indiana | Minnesota | -6.6 | -7.7 | -8.3 |
Penn St. | Rutgers | 20.0 | 18.6 | 21.4 |
Clemson | Wake Forest | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
Wisconsin | Nebraska | 11.8 | 11.4 | 12.6 |
Western Kentucky | Florida Atlantic | 7.8 | 8.4 | 9.7 |
Iowa | Illinois | 18.0 | 17.2 | 17.9 |
Boise St. | New Mexico | 28.1 | 28.4 | 30.4 |
Utah | Oregon | 6.9 | 5.8 | 4.8 |
Colorado | Washington | -5.4 | -6.8 | -7.0 |
Notre Dame | Georgia Tech | 20.2 | 21.1 | 22.0 |
Stanford | California | 0.6 | -2.0 | -2.2 |
Oregon St. | Arizona St. | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
USC | UCLA | -0.3 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
Navy | East Carolina | -7.2 | -7.2 | -7.9 |
South Carolina | Auburn | -10.9 | -10.7 | -12.1 |
Tulsa | Temple | 23.7 | 22.9 | 24.0 |
Troy | Appalachian St. | -11.0 | -10.8 | -12.1 |
Ole Miss | Vanderbilt | 39.1 | 39.4 | 40.0 |
Middle Tennessee | Old Dominion | 11.3 | 10.6 | 11.3 |
Alabama | Arkansas | 21.1 | 20.5 | 22.1 |
LSU | Louisiana-Monroe | 33.2 | 34.1 | 35.2 |
Tulane | South Florida | 6.5 | 5.8 | 6.8 |
Oklahoma | Iowa St. | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
TCU | Kansas | 24.8 | 25.6 | 28.2 |
Kentucky | New Mexico St. | 41.3 | 41.7 | 43.0 |
Charlotte | Marshall | -15.9 | -15.2 | -15.6 |
UTSA | UAB | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.1 |
Texas Tech | Oklahoma St. | -14.4 | -14.1 | -14.8 |
Kansas St. | Baylor | -0.7 | -0.6 | -1.0 |
Georgia St. | Arkansas St. | 17.4 | 16.6 | 18.2 |
UTEP | Rice | 6.4 | 7.5 | 5.9 |
Georgia Southern | BYU | -20.1 | -19.6 | -20.6 |
Florida Int’l. | North Texas | -10.2 | -10.4 | -10.2 |
Utah St. | Wyoming | 7.5 | 7.9 | 6.8 |
Hawaii | Colorado St. | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
The Northwestern and Purdue game will be played at Wrigley Field.
FBS vs. FCS Games
FBS | FCS | PiRate |
Georgia | Charleston Southern | 48.4 |
Texas A&M | Prairie View | 36.4 |
Mississippi St. | Tennessee St. | 36.4 |
North Carolina | Wofford | 33.2 |
Teams Not Playing This Week
Fresno St. |
San Jose St. |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Georgia | 136.0 |
2 | Alabama | 131.6 |
3 | Ohio St. | 130.3 |
4 | Oklahoma St. | 121.2 |
5 | Oklahoma | 120.2 |
6 | Texas A&M | 119.6 |
7 | Iowa St. | 118.6 |
8 | Wisconsin | 118.5 |
9 | Ole Miss | 117.5 |
10 | Notre Dame | 117.3 |
11 | Cincinnati | 117.2 |
12 | Utah | 117.0 |
13 | Michigan | 116.3 |
14 | Auburn | 115.0 |
15 | Penn St. | 115.0 |
16 | Baylor | 114.7 |
17 | Oregon | 114.2 |
18 | Clemson | 113.5 |
19 | Arkansas | 113.3 |
20 | Iowa | 113.0 |
21 | Mississippi St. | 112.5 |
22 | NC State | 112.2 |
23 | Wake Forest | 111.8 |
24 | Arizona St. | 111.6 |
25 | L S U | 111.5 |
26 | Kansas St. | 110.9 |
27 | Florida | 110.4 |
28 | Michigan St. | 110.4 |
29 | North Carolina | 110.4 |
30 | U C L A | 110.1 |
31 | Pittsburgh | 110.0 |
32 | Kentucky | 110.0 |
33 | Tennessee | 109.8 |
34 | BYU | 109.7 |
35 | Nebraska | 109.5 |
36 | West Virginia | 109.3 |
37 | Oregon St. | 109.2 |
38 | Texas | 108.9 |
39 | Purdue | 108.8 |
40 | Miami (Fla.) | 108.5 |
41 | U S C | 108.1 |
42 | Louisiana | 108.0 |
43 | Minnesota | 107.9 |
44 | Coastal Carolina | 107.7 |
45 | Louisville | 106.8 |
46 | Washington | 106.7 |
47 | Boise St. | 106.6 |
48 | Appalachian St. | 106.6 |
49 | Houston | 105.7 |
50 | T C U | 105.7 |
51 | SMU | 104.9 |
52 | Florida St. | 104.7 |
53 | Washington St. | 104.6 |
54 | Virginia | 104.0 |
55 | Texas Tech | 103.8 |
56 | Liberty | 103.6 |
57 | Boston College | 102.9 |
58 | Nevada | 102.5 |
59 | Virginia Tech | 102.3 |
60 | California | 101.8 |
61 | Air Force | 101.7 |
62 | San Diego St. | 101.5 |
63 | Army | 101.4 |
64 | U T S A | 101.1 |
65 | Fresno St. | 101.1 |
66 | South Carolina | 100.8 |
67 | East Carolina | 100.6 |
68 | Maryland | 100.5 |
69 | UCF | 99.8 |
70 | Missouri | 99.7 |
71 | Georgia Tech | 99.3 |
72 | Syracuse | 99.1 |
73 | Stanford | 99.1 |
74 | Miami (Ohio) | 98.5 |
75 | Toledo | 98.5 |
76 | Illinois | 98.3 |
77 | U A B | 97.9 |
78 | Indiana | 97.9 |
79 | Georgia St. | 97.6 |
80 | Central Michigan | 97.5 |
81 | Colorado | 97.3 |
82 | Rutgers | 97.0 |
83 | Marshall | 96.8 |
84 | Utah St. | 96.7 |
85 | Tulsa | 96.0 |
86 | Western Kentucky | 96.0 |
87 | Northwestern | 95.6 |
88 | Ball St. | 95.2 |
89 | Memphis | 94.7 |
90 | Arizona | 93.9 |
91 | Eastern Michigan | 93.6 |
92 | Tulane | 93.2 |
93 | Troy | 92.7 |
94 | Colorado St. | 92.7 |
95 | Wyoming | 92.3 |
96 | Western Michigan | 91.8 |
97 | South Alabama | 91.0 |
98 | San Jose St. | 90.7 |
99 | Middle Tennessee | 90.5 |
100 | Northern Illinois | 90.4 |
101 | Florida Atlantic | 90.3 |
102 | Navy | 90.2 |
103 | Kent St. | 90.0 |
104 | Buffalo | 89.7 |
105 | Ohio | 89.5 |
106 | USF | 89.3 |
107 | Hawaii | 89.0 |
108 | Georgia Southern | 86.6 |
109 | U N L V | 86.6 |
110 | U T E P | 84.3 |
111 | Duke | 84.1 |
112 | Louisiana Tech | 83.5 |
113 | North Texas | 83.1 |
114 | Arkansas St. | 82.7 |
115 | Kansas | 82.5 |
116 | Old Dominion | 81.9 |
117 | Texas St. | 81.5 |
118 | Vanderbilt | 81.0 |
119 | New Mexico | 80.6 |
120 | Rice | 80.2 |
121 | UL-Monroe | 79.3 |
122 | Charlotte | 78.7 |
123 | Akron | 76.8 |
124 | Temple | 75.5 |
125 | Bowling Green | 74.9 |
126 | Southern Miss. | 74.2 |
127 | New Mexico St. | 71.0 |
128 | Florida Int’l. | 70.4 |
129 | Connecticut | 68.1 |
130 | UMass | 64.4 |
Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive (forward thinking) and not rankings based on what teams have done to date.
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Cincinnati | 117.1 | 116.4 | 118.1 | 117.2 |
Houston | 105.7 | 105.0 | 106.4 | 105.7 |
SMU | 104.6 | 104.7 | 105.4 | 104.9 |
East Carolina | 100.3 | 100.1 | 101.5 | 100.6 |
UCF | 99.8 | 98.6 | 101.1 | 99.8 |
Tulsa | 96.0 | 95.9 | 96.2 | 96.0 |
Memphis | 94.1 | 94.5 | 95.4 | 94.7 |
Tulane | 93.3 | 92.1 | 94.1 | 93.2 |
Navy | 90.1 | 89.9 | 90.7 | 90.2 |
USF | 89.3 | 88.9 | 89.8 | 89.3 |
Temple | 75.3 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 75.5 |
AAC Averages | 96.9 | 96.6 | 97.6 | 97.0 |
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||
Atlantic Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Clemson | 113.2 | 113.1 | 114.2 | 113.5 |
NC State | 112.1 | 111.9 | 112.6 | 112.2 |
Wake Forest | 111.7 | 111.4 | 112.2 | 111.8 |
Louisville | 106.4 | 106.4 | 107.7 | 106.8 |
Florida St. | 104.4 | 104.6 | 105.0 | 104.7 |
Boston College | 102.8 | 102.9 | 103.1 | 102.9 |
Syracuse | 99.0 | 99.1 | 99.2 | 99.1 |
Coastal Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
North Carolina | 109.9 | 109.9 | 111.3 | 110.4 |
Pittsburgh | 109.7 | 110.4 | 110.1 | 110.0 |
Miami (Fla.) | 108.9 | 108.1 | 108.6 | 108.5 |
Virginia | 103.8 | 104.6 | 103.7 | 104.0 |
Virginia Tech | 102.8 | 102.1 | 102.0 | 102.3 |
Georgia Tech | 99.3 | 99.3 | 99.2 | 99.3 |
Duke | 84.4 | 84.8 | 83.2 | 84.1 |
ACC Averages | 104.9 | 104.9 | 105.2 | 105.0 |
Big 12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oklahoma St. | 121.5 | 121.2 | 121.0 | 121.2 |
Oklahoma | 121.1 | 119.4 | 120.0 | 120.2 |
Iowa St. | 119.3 | 117.9 | 118.6 | 118.6 |
Baylor | 115.2 | 114.5 | 114.4 | 114.7 |
Kansas St. | 111.4 | 110.9 | 110.4 | 110.9 |
West Virginia | 110.6 | 109.0 | 108.3 | 109.3 |
Texas | 110.0 | 108.2 | 108.6 | 108.9 |
T C U | 106.4 | 105.2 | 105.4 | 105.7 |
Texas Tech | 104.1 | 104.1 | 103.2 | 103.8 |
Kansas | 84.6 | 82.6 | 80.3 | 82.5 |
Big 12 Averages | 110.4 | 109.3 | 109.0 | 109.6 |
Big Ten Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio St. | 129.8 | 129.8 | 131.3 | 130.3 |
Michigan | 115.5 | 116.4 | 116.9 | 116.3 |
Penn St. | 114.1 | 114.6 | 116.1 | 115.0 |
Michigan St. | 110.2 | 110.3 | 110.6 | 110.4 |
Maryland | 101.4 | 100.2 | 99.9 | 100.5 |
Indiana | 97.9 | 97.6 | 98.0 | 97.9 |
Rutgers | 96.1 | 98.0 | 96.7 | 97.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Wisconsin | 117.9 | 117.8 | 119.6 | 118.5 |
Iowa | 112.9 | 112.5 | 113.7 | 113.0 |
Nebraska | 109.2 | 109.4 | 110.0 | 109.5 |
Purdue | 108.3 | 108.2 | 110.0 | 108.8 |
Minnesota | 107.1 | 107.8 | 108.8 | 107.9 |
Illinois | 97.9 | 98.3 | 98.8 | 98.3 |
Northwestern | 95.5 | 95.7 | 95.5 | 95.6 |
Big Ten Averages | 108.1 | 108.4 | 109.0 | 108.5 |
Conference USA | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Marshall | 96.5 | 96.7 | 97.2 | 96.8 |
Western Kentucky | 94.7 | 96.3 | 96.9 | 96.0 |
Middle Tennessee | 90.0 | 90.3 | 91.1 | 90.5 |
Florida Atlantic | 89.9 | 90.8 | 90.2 | 90.3 |
Old Dominion | 81.2 | 82.2 | 82.3 | 81.9 |
Charlotte | 78.1 | 78.9 | 79.0 | 78.7 |
Florida Int’l. | 70.2 | 70.4 | 70.5 | 70.4 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
U T S A | 100.7 | 101.4 | 101.3 | 101.1 |
U A B | 97.7 | 98.0 | 98.1 | 97.9 |
U T E P | 84.1 | 85.2 | 83.5 | 84.3 |
Louisiana Tech | 83.8 | 84.1 | 82.7 | 83.5 |
North Texas | 82.9 | 83.3 | 83.2 | 83.1 |
Rice | 80.2 | 80.2 | 80.2 | 80.2 |
Southern Miss. | 74.1 | 74.5 | 73.8 | 74.2 |
CUSA Averages | 86.0 | 86.6 | 86.4 | 86.3 |
FBS Independents | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Notre Dame | 116.5 | 117.3 | 118.2 | 117.3 |
BYU | 109.8 | 109.4 | 110.0 | 109.7 |
Liberty | 103.2 | 103.7 | 103.9 | 103.6 |
Army | 101.5 | 101.4 | 101.2 | 101.4 |
New Mexico St. | 71.3 | 71.9 | 69.8 | 71.0 |
Connecticut | 68.7 | 69.2 | 66.5 | 68.1 |
UMass | 65.5 | 64.9 | 62.8 | 64.4 |
Indep. Averages | 90.9 | 91.1 | 90.3 | 90.8 |
Mid-American Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Ohio) | 99.8 | 98.3 | 97.4 | 98.5 |
Kent St. | 89.8 | 91.0 | 89.3 | 90.0 |
Buffalo | 90.5 | 89.5 | 89.1 | 89.7 |
Ohio | 89.1 | 89.9 | 89.6 | 89.5 |
Akron | 77.9 | 76.8 | 75.9 | 76.8 |
Bowling Green | 75.5 | 75.7 | 73.5 | 74.9 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Toledo | 99.1 | 98.5 | 97.8 | 98.5 |
Central Michigan | 98.5 | 97.2 | 96.9 | 97.5 |
Ball St. | 96.2 | 95.6 | 93.7 | 95.2 |
Eastern Michigan | 94.8 | 93.6 | 92.4 | 93.6 |
Western Michigan | 92.2 | 92.2 | 90.8 | 91.8 |
Northern Illinois | 91.3 | 90.2 | 89.6 | 90.4 |
MAC Averages | 91.2 | 90.7 | 89.7 | 90.5 |
Mountain West Conference | ||||
Mountain Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Boise St. | 106.2 | 106.4 | 107.1 | 106.6 |
Air Force | 101.3 | 101.6 | 102.2 | 101.7 |
Utah St. | 96.3 | 97.2 | 96.7 | 96.7 |
Colorado St. | 92.7 | 92.6 | 92.7 | 92.7 |
Wyoming | 91.8 | 92.3 | 92.9 | 92.3 |
New Mexico | 81.1 | 81.0 | 79.7 | 80.6 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Nevada | 102.1 | 103.1 | 102.3 | 102.5 |
San Diego St. | 101.7 | 101.5 | 101.3 | 101.5 |
Fresno St. | 100.2 | 101.2 | 101.9 | 101.1 |
San Jose St. | 91.0 | 91.2 | 89.9 | 90.7 |
Hawaii | 89.4 | 89.0 | 88.6 | 89.0 |
U N L V | 86.8 | 86.4 | 86.8 | 86.6 |
MWC Averages | 95.0 | 95.3 | 95.2 | 95.2 |
Pac-12 Conference | ||||
North Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oregon | 113.1 | 114.4 | 115.2 | 114.2 |
Oregon St. | 108.9 | 109.4 | 109.4 | 109.2 |
Washington | 106.1 | 107.1 | 107.0 | 106.7 |
Washington St. | 104.2 | 105.1 | 104.6 | 104.6 |
California | 100.0 | 103.0 | 102.4 | 101.8 |
Stanford | 99.0 | 99.5 | 98.7 | 99.1 |
South Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Utah | 117.0 | 117.1 | 117.0 | 117.0 |
Arizona St. | 111.0 | 111.7 | 112.1 | 111.6 |
U C L A | 109.8 | 110.1 | 110.3 | 110.1 |
U S C | 108.0 | 107.8 | 108.4 | 108.1 |
Colorado | 97.6 | 97.4 | 96.9 | 97.3 |
Arizona | 93.7 | 93.9 | 94.1 | 93.9 |
Pac-12 Averages | 105.7 | 106.4 | 106.3 | 106.1 |
Southeastern Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia | 135.5 | 135.9 | 136.8 | 136.0 |
Florida | 109.9 | 111.0 | 110.4 | 110.4 |
Kentucky | 109.6 | 110.6 | 109.8 | 110.0 |
Tennessee | 109.7 | 109.6 | 110.1 | 109.8 |
South Carolina | 101.3 | 100.9 | 100.2 | 100.8 |
Missouri | 99.9 | 100.0 | 99.1 | 99.7 |
Vanderbilt | 81.3 | 81.0 | 80.6 | 81.0 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Alabama | 131.6 | 130.9 | 132.2 | 131.6 |
Texas A&M | 119.3 | 119.8 | 119.6 | 119.6 |
Ole Miss | 117.4 | 117.4 | 117.6 | 117.5 |
Auburn | 115.2 | 114.6 | 115.3 | 115.0 |
Arkansas | 113.4 | 113.4 | 113.1 | 113.3 |
Mississippi St. | 112.2 | 112.7 | 112.7 | 112.5 |
L S U | 111.0 | 111.7 | 111.7 | 111.5 |
SEC Averages | 112.0 | 112.1 | 112.1 | 112.1 |
Sunbelt Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Coastal Carolina | 108.3 | 106.7 | 107.9 | 107.7 |
Appalachian St. | 106.1 | 106.0 | 107.6 | 106.6 |
Georgia St. | 97.8 | 97.1 | 97.8 | 97.6 |
Troy | 92.6 | 92.7 | 93.0 | 92.7 |
Georgia Southern | 86.7 | 86.9 | 86.4 | 86.6 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Louisiana | 108.6 | 107.3 | 108.3 | 108.0 |
South Alabama | 91.3 | 91.1 | 90.5 | 91.0 |
Arkansas St. | 82.9 | 83.0 | 82.1 | 82.7 |
Texas St. | 82.6 | 80.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 |
UL-Monroe | 79.8 | 79.6 | 78.5 | 79.3 |
Sun Averages | 93.7 | 93.1 | 93.3 | 93.4 |
Conference Ratings
Rank | Conference | Rating |
1 | Southeastern | 112.1 |
2 | Big 12 | 109.6 |
3 | Big Ten | 108.5 |
4 | Pac-12 | 106.1 |
5 | Atlantic Coast | 105.0 |
6 | American Athletic | 97.0 |
7 | Mountain West | 95.2 |
8 | Sun Belt | 93.4 |
9 | Independents | 90.8 |
10 | Mid-American | 90.5 |
11 | Conference USA | 86.3 |
Playoff and Bowl Projections
Note: This is the first week where we do not project 82 teams to have six or more wins. This week, we project two 5-7 teams to receive bowl bids, both from the Pac-12–Washington and California.
Bowl | Team | Team |
Bahamas | UAB | Northern Illinois |
Cure | Liberty | Appalachian St. |
Boca | Middle Tennessee | Miami (O) |
New Mexico | UTEP | Utah St. |
Independence | BYU | Western Kentucky |
Lending Tree | Central Michigan | San Jose St. |
L. A. | San Diego St. | USC |
New Orleans | Florida Atlantic | Louisiana |
Myrtle Beach | West Virginia | Coastal Carolina |
Famous Idaho Potato | Kent St. | Boise St. |
Frisco | Houston | UTSA |
Armed Forces | Army | Marshall |
Gasparilla | California | Florida |
Hawaii | East Carolina | Nevada |
Camellia | Toledo | Georgia St. |
Quick Lane | Eastern Michigan | Wyoming |
Military | Virginia | SMU |
Birmingham | Memphis | Ball St. |
First Responder | Washington | Fresno St. |
Liberty | Iowa St. | Missouri |
Holiday | North Carolina | UCLA |
Guaranteed Rate | Rutgers | Texas Tech |
Fenway | Boston College | Central Florida |
Pinstripe | North Carolina St. | Minnesota |
Cheez-It | Baylor | Wake Forest |
Alamo | Oklahoma | Arizona St. |
Duke’s Mayo | Miami (Fla.) | Auburn |
Music City | Penn St. | Tennessee |
Las Vegas | Purdue | Washington St. |
Tax Slayer Gator | Clemson | Mississippi St. |
Tony The Tiger Sun | Louisville | Oregon St. |
Arizona | Western Michigan | Air Force |
Citrus | Iowa | Texas A&M |
Outback | Wisconsin | Kentucky |
Texas | Kansas St. | Arkansas |
Peach | Cincinnati | Michigan St. |
Fiesta | Notre Dame | Pittsburgh |
Rose | Michigan | Utah |
Sugar | Ole Miss | Oklahoma St. |
Cotton | Oregon | Ohio St. |
Orange | Georgia | Alabama |
Championship | Georgia | Ohio St. |
Where Cincinnati Rates Historically Among Other Unbeatens
With Cincinnati sitting at 10-0 and just on the outside, looking in on a potential College Football Playoff invitation, where do the Bearcats fit in the historical picture of Division 1 teams that won all their games but were not members of a major conference or top independent?
This may be putting the cart before the horse, because CU must win three more games against three better than average teams to get to 13-0 and have a chance to be in the Final Four. A home game this week against SMU could be tricky. A regular season finale at East Carolina is going to be somewhat trickier, as the Pirates have been sneaky good for two months. But, even if Cinti wins those two games, they will have to beat a Houston team that has looked better than the Bearcats in the last month.
Here is a look at all the Division 1 teams with perfect records between 1960 and 2000. I chose these years as a basis for comparing the Bearcats because the sample size was extremely large.
1960–New Mexico State and Yale
Both teams finished in the national top 20, but neither team was at the level of 2021 Cincinnati. While the Ivy League was still Division 1 up until the late 1970’s, by 1960, it was about on par with Conference USA today and maybe not that strong. Yale beat U Conn and Colgate out of conference. NMSU was much better and deserving of their 11-0 season that included a win in the Sun Bowl. With future NFL QB Charley Johnson running the offense, the Aggies were as good as UTSA and Louisiana today, but not Cincinnati.
1961–Rutgers
This is one of the weakest undefeated D1 teams in modern times. Rutgers went 9-0 with five wins over small college opponents and four wins over Ivy League opponents.
1962–Dartmouth
Coach Bob Blackman was a defensive wizard, and he built Dartmouth into a small power. This was his first of three 9-0 teams. Dartmouth gave up just 9 points in their first seven games, but this team was never ranked and not on Cincinnati’s level. That would change.
1964–Princeton
The 9-0 Tigers were one of the last teams to run a single wing offense, and Princeton won a lot of close games to win the Ivy. PU was never ranked, and this Tiger team was little better than the 1961 Rutgers team.
1965–Dartmouth
This Dartmouth team was somewhat better than the 1962 team with a more consistent running game that controlled the clock. Eight of nine wins were never in doubt, but the DC was not on Cincinnati’s level this season. We’re not through with this team though.
1969–San Diego State, Toledo
The Aztecs became classified as a major college team after years of being a dynasty small college team. Coach Don Coryell was in the middle of sending quarterbacks to the NFL, and in Dennis Shaw, he may have had the best passer in the nation, as SDSU went 11-0, while averaging 45 points per game. This team did not earn a ranking in the polls, and their schedule was not worthy of that honor. Not only was this team not on par with 2021 Cincinnati, the 2021 SDSU team would have beaten the 1969 team.
Toledo began a three-year string from 1969 to 1971 where the Rockets won every game. This was not their best in the three-year run, but they did briefly crack the AP Poll.
1970–Arizona State, Toledo, Dartmouth
Now, we have some interesting undefeated teams. Arizona State finished #6 in the final polls with an 11-0 record that included wins over Kansas State, Washington State, Utah, and North Carolina in the Peach Bowl. The Sun Devils might have been a tad better than this Cincinnati team. ASU was loaded with future NFL players.
Toledo’s 1970 team finished #12 in the final poll, but this Rockets team was considerably underrated in 1970. Toledo should have been a Top 10 team that year. Their schedule lacked a power team, which is why they finished #12, but they outgained opponents by close to 200 yards a game when 300 yards was considered an offensive outburst. They won the Tangerine Bowl by four touchdowns. I believe this Toledo team was about as good as this year’s Cincinnati.
Now, for Dartmouth. This was Bob Blackman’s and the Ivy League’s best team post World War II. Dartmouth became the last Ivy League team to finish ranked in the national polls at a way underrated #14. This team went 9-0, finishing in the top 10 nationally in both offense and defense, as they outgained opponents by close to 250 yards per game. They shut out six of their nine opponents, including their final four games. Football experts that saw this team play say they would have defeated Penn State that year, and DC was awarded the Lambert Trophy as the best team in the East. This team might have been strong enough to win a New Year’s Bowl game that year.
1971–Toledo
The third year run of undefeated Rocket teams, they finished #14 in the final polls, but this team was not as good as the 1970 team. Interestingly, this Toledo team became one of just two major college teams to post back-to-back perfect seasons with different coaches. Michigan was the other in 1947 and 1948.
1973–Miami of Ohio
What makes 1973 a bit different from the previous years mentioned in this section is that half of the MAC teams were ranked in the top 20 at some point in 1973. Miami not only beat the other ranked MAC teams, they dominated Florida in the Tangerine Bowl, totally stopping a Gators’ offense that had defeated rival Florida State 49-0 in the regular season finale. Miami allowed less than 7 points per game and less than 200 total yards per game. In a year where six major conference teams did not lose a regular season game, this Miami team got lost in the mix, but I would have favored them over this year’s Cincinnati team.
1975–Arizona State, Arkansas State
This Sun Devils team was not as good as the 1970 team, but they finished #2 in the final rankings thanks to come-from-behind wins over ranked Arizona and Nebraska teams, the Cornhusker upset coming in the Fiesta Bowl. It also helped that there were no other undefeated teams in Division 1 that year, as 11-1 Oklahoma won the national championship after Ohio State lost the Rose Bowl. 2021 Cincinnati probably would beat this ASU team.
Arkansas State went 11-0 with a powerful wishbone offense. Included in the 11 wins were victories over 7-4 Memphis and 6-5 Cincinnati, but this team was about as strong as Louisiana and Appalachian State are today.
1976–Rutgers
1976 was a great year for Scarlet Knight fans. The football team went 11-0 following a basketball team that went undefeated until the Final Four, where they lost a heartbreaker to Michigan in the nation semifinals. This 11-0 football team finished #17 in the polls, but they were not on the level of this year’s Cincinnati. Their best win was over a Colgate team that went 8-2, but it was a controversial win with questionable officiating calls.
1984–BYU
Did BYU deserve to win the 1984 National Championship? Were they better than this year’s Cincinnati team? I don’t think so. This wasn’t even the best BYU team in this era, just the one that was fortunate to go 13-0 against a weak schedule and win a bowl game over the weakest Michigan team in the Bo Schembechler era. BYU’s key wins were against a 3-7-1 Pitt team and a 5-6 Baylor team. In the Fiesta Bowl against 6-5 Michigan, BYU had to rally from behind to win by seven. Quarterback Robbie Bosco continuing to play while injured made for a great copy, but this year’s BYU team might beat that one. They were not deserving of the title that year, as Washington was the real best team in 1984.
1998–Tulane
The Green Wave finished #7 in the final polls with a dominant offense and average defense. TU defeated BYU in the Liberty Bowl but defeated no ranked teams. The 1998 Green Wave was not in this year’s Cincinnati’s class.
1999–Marshall
The Thundering Herd played in the MAC for a few years, and in 1999, they went 13-0 and finished 10th in the final polls behind future NFL QB Chad Pennington. All the Herd could manage to earn was a Motor City Bowl game, where they beat BYU. While Marshall defeated Clemson in the regular season, that CU team went just 6-6 and fired their coach.
November 7, 2021
PiRate Ratings College Football–November 9-13, 2021
PiRate Pro Football Game — NFL Edition
Our PiRate Ratings’ statistically-accurate Pro Football Game recently added the NFL Greats from 1960-1975 to the previously issued AFL Greats. These games come to you in Zip Files where you can print your own and save $50 off the cost of purchasing a boxed game. Check it out:
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Miami (O) | Buffalo | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
Eastern Michigan | Ohio U | 11.7 | 9.9 | 9.1 |
Western Michigan | Akron | 19.2 | 20.6 | 20.4 |
Bowling Green | Toledo | -19.4 | -18.7 | -19.8 |
Central Michigan | Kent St. | 8.0 | 5.7 | 6.7 |
Northern Illinois | Ball St. | -3.2 | -3.9 | -2.6 |
Pittsburgh | North Carolina | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
South Florida | Cincinnati | -25.4 | -25.3 | -26.5 |
Boise St. | Wyoming | 17.9 | 17.7 | 18.3 |
Kansas St. | West Virginia | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Coastal Carolina | Georgia St. | 17.2 | 16.2 | 17.1 |
Clemson | Connecticut | 46.8 | 46.3 | 50.0 |
Iowa | Minnesota | 9.2 | 8.1 | 8.5 |
Virginia Tech | Duke | 18.9 | 17.5 | 18.8 |
Georgia Tech | Boston College | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Penn St. | Michigan | 3.7 | 3.5 | 4.9 |
Indiana | Rutgers | 11.6 | 9.4 | 11.1 |
Temple | Houston | -26.8 | -25.0 | -27.2 |
Michigan St. | Maryland | 10.4 | 11.7 | 12.3 |
Louisville | Syracuse | 5.2 | 4.8 | 6.1 |
Oklahoma St. | TCU | 10.6 | 11.5 | 11.1 |
Texas | Kansas | 35.9 | 36.1 | 38.8 |
Wake Forest | North Carolina St. | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Baylor | Oklahoma | -7.3 | -6.4 | -7.4 |
Virginia | Notre Dame | -5.6 | -5.4 | -7.4 |
Wisconsin | Northwestern | 22.8 | 22.3 | 24.3 |
Rice | Western Kentucky | -9.5 | -11.1 | -11.5 |
Arizona | Utah | -22.2 | -22.3 | -22.2 |
Appalachian St. | South Alabama | 16.8 | 16.7 | 19.1 |
UCLA | Colorado | 12.7 | 13.3 | 13.8 |
Washington | Arizona St. | -1.5 | -0.9 | -1.3 |
UNLV | Hawaii | -1.7 | -2.0 | -1.4 |
Oregon | Washington St. | 11.3 | 11.4 | 12.8 |
Oregon St. | Stanford | 11.0 | 10.6 | 11.4 |
California | USC | -5.1 | -1.8 | -3.1 |
Memphis | East Carolina | -3.8 | -3.0 | -4.1 |
Auburn | Mississippi St. | 10.0 | 9.1 | 9.9 |
Louisiana Tech | Charlotte | 8.0 | 7.3 | 5.4 |
Texas Tech | Iowa St. | -16.0 | -14.7 | -16.6 |
Troy | Louisiana | -13.5 | -11.9 | -12.8 |
Old Dominion | Florida Atlantic | -11.1 | -11.3 | -10.5 |
SMU | Central Florida | 3.6 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
Missouri | South Carolina | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Vanderbilt | Kentucky | -27.1 | -28.8 | -28.6 |
UTSA | Southern Miss. | 31.2 | 31.4 | 32.0 |
Alabama | New Mexico St. | 61.3 | 60.0 | 63.4 |
Ole Miss | Texas A&M | -1.4 | -2.3 | -2.1 |
Tennessee | Georgia | -22.0 | -22.5 | -23.0 |
Ohio St. | Purdue | 23.6 | 23.5 | 23.0 |
Florida St. | Miami (Fla.) | -3.7 | -2.8 | -3.3 |
Marshall | UAB | 4.3 | 4.4 | 5.1 |
LSU | Arkansas | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
Texas St. | Georgia Southern | -1.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 |
Middle Tennessee | Florida Int’l. | 17.6 | 17.5 | 18.0 |
Tulane | Tulsa | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.2 |
North Texas | UTEP | 0.6 | -0.3 | 1.3 |
Louisiana-Monroe | Arkansas St. | 0.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 |
Fresno St. | New Mexico | 21.4 | 22.6 | 24.7 |
Colorado St. | Air Force | -6.5 | -6.6 | -7.2 |
San Jose St. | Utah St. | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 |
San Diego St. | Nevada | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
FBS vs. FCS Games This Week
FBS | FCS | PiRate |
Florida | Samford | 31.2 |
Massachusetts | Maine | 1.8 |
Army | Bucknell | 38.8 |
FBS Teams With The Week Off
BYU |
Illinois |
Liberty |
Navy |
Nebraska |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Rank | Team | Rating |
1 | Georgia | 135.4 |
2 | Alabama | 130.6 |
3 | Ohio St. | 129.5 |
4 | Oklahoma | 122.4 |
5 | Texas A&M | 120.8 |
6 | Iowa St. | 120.6 |
7 | Utah | 117.9 |
8 | Cincinnati | 117.6 |
9 | Wisconsin | 117.4 |
10 | Oklahoma St. | 117.2 |
11 | Auburn | 117.0 |
12 | Penn St. | 115.9 |
13 | Ole Miss | 115.8 |
14 | Notre Dame | 115.0 |
15 | Michigan | 114.8 |
16 | Oregon | 113.7 |
17 | Texas | 113.4 |
18 | Clemson | 113.4 |
19 | Iowa | 113.3 |
20 | Arkansas | 113.2 |
21 | Baylor | 112.4 |
22 | NC State | 112.3 |
23 | Wake Forest | 111.7 |
24 | Florida | 111.6 |
25 | L S U | 111.6 |
26 | Arizona St. | 111.3 |
27 | West Virginia | 110.7 |
28 | Kentucky | 110.6 |
29 | Mississippi St. | 110.3 |
30 | North Carolina | 110.3 |
31 | Pittsburgh | 110.1 |
32 | Tennessee | 109.9 |
33 | Michigan St. | 109.7 |
34 | Coastal Carolina | 109.6 |
35 | BYU | 109.4 |
36 | Miami (Fla.) | 109.4 |
37 | Nebraska | 109.2 |
38 | T C U | 109.2 |
39 | Purdue | 109.1 |
40 | Kansas St. | 109.0 |
41 | U C L A | 108.8 |
42 | Oregon St. | 108.4 |
43 | U S C | 108.1 |
44 | Louisiana | 108.0 |
45 | Minnesota | 107.6 |
46 | Washington | 107.0 |
47 | Boise St. | 106.9 |
48 | Appalachian St. | 106.0 |
49 | Virginia | 105.9 |
50 | Washington St. | 104.9 |
51 | Houston | 104.7 |
52 | Louisville | 104.1 |
53 | Florida St. | 104.1 |
54 | Liberty | 103.3 |
55 | SMU | 102.7 |
56 | Nevada | 102.6 |
57 | U T S A | 102.4 |
58 | UCF | 102.0 |
59 | Indiana | 101.9 |
60 | Texas Tech | 101.8 |
61 | Syracuse | 101.8 |
62 | California | 101.8 |
63 | Boston College | 101.4 |
64 | San Diego St. | 101.4 |
65 | Air Force | 101.3 |
66 | Maryland | 101.2 |
67 | Virginia Tech | 101.1 |
68 | South Carolina | 100.9 |
69 | Fresno St. | 100.8 |
70 | Georgia Tech | 100.8 |
71 | East Carolina | 100.7 |
72 | Stanford | 100.4 |
73 | Army | 100.4 |
74 | Missouri | 99.5 |
75 | Colorado | 98.5 |
76 | Illinois | 98.0 |
77 | Marshall | 98.0 |
78 | Toledo | 97.1 |
79 | Miami (Ohio) | 96.6 |
80 | U A B | 96.4 |
81 | Northwestern | 96.2 |
82 | Central Michigan | 95.9 |
83 | Ball St. | 95.6 |
84 | Eastern Michigan | 95.4 |
85 | Georgia St. | 95.3 |
86 | Tulsa | 95.3 |
87 | Memphis | 94.6 |
88 | San Jose St. | 94.5 |
89 | Western Kentucky | 94.5 |
90 | Rutgers | 94.2 |
91 | Tulane | 93.9 |
92 | Western Michigan | 93.2 |
93 | Colorado St. | 93.0 |
94 | Utah St. | 92.9 |
95 | Troy | 92.8 |
96 | Arizona | 92.7 |
97 | Florida Atlantic | 92.5 |
98 | Buffalo | 92.1 |
99 | Wyoming | 92.0 |
100 | Kent St. | 91.6 |
101 | South Alabama | 91.5 |
102 | Hawaii | 90.8 |
103 | Navy | 90.0 |
104 | Northern Illinois | 89.9 |
105 | USF | 88.9 |
106 | Middle Tennessee | 88.3 |
107 | Ohio | 87.7 |
108 | Georgia Southern | 86.3 |
109 | Duke | 85.7 |
110 | U N L V | 85.1 |
111 | U T E P | 84.5 |
112 | Louisiana Tech | 83.3 |
113 | North Texas | 83.0 |
114 | Arkansas St. | 82.4 |
115 | Texas St. | 81.9 |
116 | Rice | 81.3 |
117 | New Mexico | 80.9 |
118 | Vanderbilt | 80.4 |
119 | UL-Monroe | 79.6 |
120 | Kansas | 79.5 |
121 | Old Dominion | 79.0 |
122 | Charlotte | 78.9 |
123 | Bowling Green | 76.3 |
124 | Temple | 75.8 |
125 | Akron | 75.7 |
126 | Southern Miss. | 73.4 |
127 | Florida Int’l. | 73.1 |
128 | New Mexico St. | 72.0 |
129 | Connecticut | 68.7 |
130 | UMass | 66.1 |
PiRate Ratings By Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Cincinnati | 117.4 | 116.8 | 118.7 | 117.6 |
Houston | 104.8 | 103.9 | 105.3 | 104.7 |
SMU | 102.5 | 102.6 | 103.0 | 102.7 |
UCF | 101.9 | 100.7 | 103.5 | 102.0 |
East Carolina | 100.3 | 100.1 | 101.7 | 100.7 |
Tulsa | 95.4 | 95.2 | 95.3 | 95.3 |
Memphis | 94.1 | 94.5 | 95.2 | 94.6 |
Tulane | 93.9 | 92.8 | 95.0 | 93.9 |
Navy | 89.9 | 89.7 | 90.5 | 90.0 |
USF | 89.0 | 88.5 | 89.2 | 88.9 |
Temple | 75.5 | 76.4 | 75.6 | 75.8 |
AAC Averages | 96.8 | 96.5 | 97.5 | 96.9 |
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||
Atlantic Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Clemson | 113.1 | 113.0 | 114.1 | 113.4 |
NC State | 112.2 | 112.0 | 112.7 | 112.3 |
Wake Forest | 111.6 | 111.3 | 112.1 | 111.7 |
Louisville | 103.8 | 103.6 | 105.0 | 104.1 |
Florida St. | 103.9 | 104.1 | 104.3 | 104.1 |
Syracuse | 101.6 | 101.9 | 101.9 | 101.8 |
Boston College | 101.4 | 101.4 | 101.5 | 101.4 |
Coastal Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
North Carolina | 109.8 | 109.8 | 111.2 | 110.3 |
Pittsburgh | 109.8 | 110.5 | 110.2 | 110.1 |
Miami (Fla.) | 109.7 | 108.9 | 109.6 | 109.4 |
Virginia | 105.6 | 106.5 | 105.5 | 105.9 |
Virginia Tech | 101.7 | 100.8 | 100.7 | 101.1 |
Georgia Tech | 100.7 | 100.8 | 100.8 | 100.8 |
Duke | 85.8 | 86.4 | 84.8 | 85.7 |
ACC Averages | 105.0 | 105.1 | 105.3 | 105.1 |
Big 12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oklahoma | 123.3 | 121.6 | 122.4 | 122.4 |
Iowa St. | 121.2 | 119.8 | 120.7 | 120.6 |
Oklahoma St. | 117.5 | 117.2 | 117.0 | 117.2 |
Texas | 114.5 | 112.7 | 113.1 | 113.4 |
Baylor | 113.0 | 112.3 | 112.0 | 112.4 |
West Virginia | 112.0 | 110.4 | 109.8 | 110.7 |
T C U | 109.9 | 108.7 | 108.9 | 109.2 |
Kansas St. | 109.5 | 109.0 | 108.4 | 109.0 |
Texas Tech | 102.2 | 102.2 | 101.1 | 101.8 |
Kansas | 81.6 | 79.6 | 77.3 | 79.5 |
Big 12 Averages | 110.5 | 109.3 | 109.1 | 109.6 |
Big Ten Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Ohio St. | 129.1 | 129.0 | 130.4 | 129.5 |
Penn St. | 114.9 | 115.5 | 117.2 | 115.9 |
Michigan | 114.2 | 115.0 | 115.3 | 114.8 |
Michigan St. | 109.5 | 109.6 | 109.9 | 109.7 |
Indiana | 101.9 | 101.6 | 102.0 | 101.9 |
Maryland | 102.1 | 100.9 | 100.6 | 101.2 |
Rutgers | 93.3 | 95.2 | 93.9 | 94.2 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Wisconsin | 116.9 | 116.7 | 118.5 | 117.4 |
Iowa | 113.1 | 112.7 | 114.0 | 113.3 |
Nebraska | 108.9 | 109.1 | 109.7 | 109.2 |
Purdue | 108.5 | 108.5 | 110.4 | 109.1 |
Minnesota | 106.9 | 107.6 | 108.5 | 107.6 |
Illinois | 97.6 | 98.0 | 98.5 | 98.0 |
Northwestern | 96.1 | 96.4 | 96.2 | 96.2 |
Big Ten Averages | 108.1 | 108.3 | 108.9 | 108.4 |
Conference USA | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Marshall | 97.6 | 97.9 | 98.6 | 98.0 |
Western Kentucky | 93.3 | 94.9 | 95.4 | 94.5 |
Florida Atlantic | 92.0 | 93.0 | 92.4 | 92.5 |
Middle Tennessee | 87.9 | 88.1 | 88.8 | 88.3 |
Old Dominion | 78.4 | 79.3 | 79.4 | 79.0 |
Charlotte | 78.2 | 79.1 | 79.4 | 78.9 |
Florida Int’l. | 72.8 | 73.1 | 73.3 | 73.1 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
U T S A | 102.0 | 102.7 | 102.6 | 102.4 |
U A B | 96.3 | 96.5 | 96.4 | 96.4 |
U T E P | 84.2 | 85.4 | 83.7 | 84.5 |
Louisiana Tech | 83.7 | 83.9 | 82.3 | 83.3 |
North Texas | 82.8 | 83.1 | 83.0 | 83.0 |
Rice | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.4 | 81.3 |
Southern Miss. | 73.3 | 73.7 | 73.0 | 73.4 |
CUSA Averages | 86.0 | 86.6 | 86.4 | 86.3 |
FBS Independents | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Notre Dame | 114.2 | 114.9 | 115.9 | 115.0 |
BYU | 109.5 | 109.1 | 109.7 | 109.4 |
Liberty | 102.9 | 103.4 | 103.6 | 103.3 |
Army | 100.5 | 100.4 | 100.2 | 100.4 |
New Mexico St. | 72.3 | 72.9 | 70.8 | 72.0 |
Connecticut | 69.3 | 69.8 | 67.1 | 68.7 |
UMass | 67.2 | 66.6 | 64.5 | 66.1 |
Indep. Averages | 90.9 | 91.0 | 90.3 | 90.7 |
Mid-American Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Miami (Ohio) | 98.0 | 96.4 | 95.3 | 96.6 |
Buffalo | 92.8 | 91.9 | 91.7 | 92.1 |
Kent St. | 91.4 | 92.5 | 91.0 | 91.6 |
Ohio | 87.3 | 88.1 | 87.7 | 87.7 |
Bowling Green | 76.8 | 77.0 | 75.0 | 76.3 |
Akron | 76.9 | 75.6 | 74.6 | 75.7 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Toledo | 97.8 | 97.2 | 96.3 | 97.1 |
Central Michigan | 96.9 | 95.7 | 95.2 | 95.9 |
Ball St. | 96.6 | 96.1 | 94.2 | 95.6 |
Eastern Michigan | 96.6 | 95.4 | 94.3 | 95.4 |
Western Michigan | 93.5 | 93.7 | 92.4 | 93.2 |
Northern Illinois | 90.9 | 89.7 | 89.1 | 89.9 |
MAC Averages | 91.3 | 90.8 | 89.7 | 90.6 |
Mountain West Conference | ||||
Mountain Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Boise St. | 106.4 | 106.7 | 107.6 | 106.9 |
Air Force | 101.0 | 101.2 | 101.8 | 101.3 |
Colorado St. | 93.0 | 93.0 | 93.1 | 93.0 |
Utah St. | 92.5 | 93.4 | 92.8 | 92.9 |
Wyoming | 91.6 | 92.0 | 92.4 | 92.0 |
New Mexico | 81.4 | 81.3 | 79.9 | 80.9 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Nevada | 102.1 | 103.2 | 102.4 | 102.6 |
San Diego St. | 101.7 | 101.4 | 101.2 | 101.4 |
Fresno St. | 99.9 | 100.9 | 101.7 | 100.8 |
San Jose St. | 94.8 | 95.0 | 93.8 | 94.5 |
Hawaii | 91.1 | 90.8 | 90.5 | 90.8 |
U N L V | 85.4 | 84.9 | 85.2 | 85.1 |
MWC Averages | 95.1 | 95.3 | 95.2 | 95.2 |
Pac-12 Conference | ||||
North Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Oregon | 112.7 | 113.9 | 114.7 | 113.7 |
Oregon St. | 108.2 | 108.5 | 108.5 | 108.4 |
Washington | 106.3 | 107.4 | 107.4 | 107.0 |
Washington St. | 104.4 | 105.4 | 104.9 | 104.9 |
California | 100.0 | 103.0 | 102.4 | 101.8 |
Stanford | 100.2 | 100.9 | 100.1 | 100.4 |
South Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Utah | 117.8 | 118.0 | 118.0 | 117.9 |
Arizona St. | 110.8 | 111.4 | 111.7 | 111.3 |
U C L A | 108.6 | 108.9 | 109.0 | 108.8 |
U S C | 108.0 | 107.8 | 108.4 | 108.1 |
Colorado | 98.8 | 98.6 | 98.2 | 98.5 |
Arizona | 92.6 | 92.7 | 92.8 | 92.7 |
Pac-12 Averages | 105.7 | 106.4 | 106.3 | 106.1 |
Southeastern Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Georgia | 134.9 | 135.3 | 136.2 | 135.4 |
Florida | 111.1 | 112.2 | 111.6 | 111.6 |
Kentucky | 110.0 | 111.2 | 110.5 | 110.6 |
Tennessee | 109.8 | 109.7 | 110.2 | 109.9 |
South Carolina | 101.4 | 101.0 | 100.4 | 100.9 |
Missouri | 99.8 | 99.9 | 98.9 | 99.5 |
Vanderbilt | 80.9 | 80.4 | 79.9 | 80.4 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Alabama | 130.6 | 129.9 | 131.2 | 130.6 |
Texas A&M | 120.3 | 121.0 | 120.9 | 120.8 |
Auburn | 117.1 | 116.6 | 117.4 | 117.0 |
Ole Miss | 115.9 | 115.7 | 115.8 | 115.8 |
Arkansas | 113.4 | 113.3 | 112.8 | 113.2 |
L S U | 111.0 | 111.8 | 112.0 | 111.6 |
Mississippi St. | 110.1 | 110.5 | 110.4 | 110.3 |
SEC Averages | 111.9 | 112.0 | 112.0 | 112.0 |
Sunbelt Conference | ||||
East Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Coastal Carolina | 110.2 | 108.6 | 110.0 | 109.6 |
Appalachian St. | 105.6 | 105.4 | 107.1 | 106.0 |
Georgia St. | 95.6 | 94.9 | 95.4 | 95.3 |
Troy | 92.6 | 92.8 | 93.0 | 92.8 |
Georgia Southern | 86.4 | 86.6 | 86.0 | 86.3 |
West Division | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
Louisiana | 108.6 | 107.2 | 108.3 | 108.0 |
South Alabama | 91.8 | 91.7 | 91.0 | 91.5 |
Arkansas St. | 82.6 | 82.7 | 81.8 | 82.4 |
Texas St. | 82.9 | 81.2 | 81.5 | 81.9 |
UL-Monroe | 80.1 | 79.9 | 78.8 | 79.6 |
Sun Averages | 93.6 | 93.1 | 93.3 | 93.3 |
Conference Ratings
Rank | Conference | Rating |
1 | Southeastern | 112.0 |
2 | Big 12 | 109.6 |
3 | Big Ten | 108.4 |
4 | Pac-12 | 106.1 |
5 | Atlantic Coast | 105.1 |
6 | American Athletic | 96.9 |
7 | Mountain West | 95.2 |
8 | Sun Belt | 93.3 |
9 | Independents | 90.7 |
10 | Mid-American | 90.6 |
11 | Conference USA | 86.3 |
Playoff and Bowl Projections
Bowl | Team | Team |
Bahamas | UTSA | Kent St. |
Cure | Air Force | Coastal Carolina |
Boca | Memphis | Florida Atlantic |
New Mexico | UTEP | Fresno St. |
Independence | BYU | Marshall |
Lending Tree | Central Michigan | Appalachian St. |
L. A. | San Diego St. | USC |
New Orleans | UAB | Louisiana |
Myrtle Beach | Middle Tennessee | Miami (O) |
Famous Idaho Potato | Northern Illinois | Boise St. |
Frisco | San Jose St. | Western Michigan |
Armed Forces | Washington St. | Army |
Gasparilla | Florida | Houston |
Hawaii | Central Florida | Nevada |
Camellia | Ball St. | Troy |
Quick Lane | Eastern Michigan | Wyoming |
Military | Louisville | East Carolina |
Birmingham | Liberty | Western Kentucky |
First Responder | Syracuse | Oregon St. |
Liberty | West Virginia | Missouri |
Holiday | Virginia | UCLA |
Guaranteed Rate | Maryland | Texas |
Fenway | SMU | Boston College |
Pinstripe | Clemson | Minnesota |
Cheez-It | Miami (Fla.) | Iowa St. |
Alamo | Baylor | Utah |
Duke’s Mayo | Wake Forest | Mississippi St. |
Music City | Penn St. | Tennessee |
Las Vegas | Purdue | Arizona St. |
Tax Slayer Gator | Pittsburgh | Arkansas |
Tony The Tiger Sun | North Carolina | Washington |
Arizona | Toledo | Utah St. |
Citrus | Wisconsin | Ole Miss |
Outback | Iowa | Kentucky |
Texas | Kansas St. | Auburn |
Peach | North Carolina St. | Cincinnati |
Fiesta | Notre Dame | Michigan |
Rose | Oregon | Michigan St. |
Sugar | Oklahoma St. | Texas A&M |
Cotton | Ohio St. | Oklahoma |
Orange | Georgia | Alabama |
Championship | Georgia | Ohio St. |
Fire The Coach!
The firing of football coaches began early this year. Quick openings at USC, Connecticut, Georgia Southern, LSU, Texas Tech, and TCU plus the firing of Washington State coach Nick Rolovich for failure to obtain the required Covid Vaccine, makes a record seven coaches fired in the middle of a season. If fans in the Sunshine State had their way, two more head coaches would join that list, maybe three if Florida International had a fanbase.
I never publish the over-the-top negative emails, texts, and comments when an upset fan wants to go on a tirade seeking the loss of a coach’s job. Instead, I usually reply privately to the commenter asking him to explain what the coach is not doing that other successful coaches are doing. Usually, the answer is always either play-calling or personnel decisions.
“If Coach Smith had put Billy Jones in at quarterback in September, and sent in longer passing plays, we’d be 9-0 right now,” is a typical type of response. My reply back to them most of the time includes video of the fan’s team and the top team in the country, running virtually the same offense. Whereas. the top team’s QB gets 3.5 seconds to locate a receiver, and he’s passing to three future NFL receivers, the fan’s teams’ QB gets less than 2 seconds to locate a receiver that is months away from selling insurance, teaching at a Middle School, or working at a sports radio station. When the top team plays a Cover 2 Combo defense, their five underneath defenders stick to the other team’s receivers like glue, and the safeties can play a but closer to the line of scrimmage, because they are sprinters that won’t be beaten deep. When the fan’s team uses the same defense, two or three of the underneath defenders lose their assignment, and the safeties have to play another 5 yards off the ball to keep from being beat deep by superior athletes. When the top team runs an inside zone blast play, their offensive line quickly controls the initial defensive surge and then take care of the linebackers. The fan’s team’s offensive line briefly opens a running lane in the first second after the snap, but by the time the running back gets the ball and arrives at the line of scrimmage, he faces a blockade.
How much of football success in a college game is determined by which team has more talent? The correct answer is somewhere between 80 and 90%! As legendary coach John Wooden stated in one of his famous quotes, “The team with the better players almost always wins.” He said that about basketball, and it is even more true in football, where quicker, and stronger means more to the sport’s success than everything else.
Look at the top recruiting classes of the last five seasons. The best cumulative classes and the best teams this year are strongly correlated. It isn’t a perfect one to one, but if your favorite team has had five consecutive top 10 classes, and your buddy’s favorite teas has had five consecutive recruiting classes in the 20-40 range, chances are about 90% that your team is going to beat his team when they play.
Coaching is not a difficult task. 130 head coaches at the collegiate level know how to teach the game to their players. 130 college strength and conditioning coaches know how to get players beefed up. Find 130 people between the ages of 35 and 60 in your neighborhood with driver’s licenses. How much difference is there in driving their cars down the road? I am not talking about speed; I am talking about keeping the car in the proper lane, not running over the kids waiting at the school bus stop, and not wrapping their vehicle around the telephone pole. The differences will be subtle.
Now say that of these 130 drivers in your neighborhood, 20 have brand new 2022 models that almost do the driving for the driver. 30 others have a 2020 or 2021 model that is easy to drive, but unlike the 2022 models above that parallel park for the driver, the driver must do more work on those one and two year old cars. The rest of the drivers have older model cars, and the bottom 30-50 have cars with issues that impair the drivers’ abilities to keep the car on the road as perfectly as those elite 20. Maybe some of the cars have faulty brakes. Others have leaking oil. Some have bald tires, and the steering on some is a bit loose, and the car “floats” a little.
The best driver of the 130 neighbors will have issues dirving the faulty cars. The least competent of the 130 drivers will still parallel park a new 2022 car easily and effortlessly.
College team fans can sometimes be the number one hindrance in a coach’s ability to recruit. Putting Coach Smith on a hot seat and creating a Fire Coach Smith website, accelerates the issue. When Coach Smith is given a private vote of confidence by his school, but the school’s fans and media say his days are numbered, 18 year old kids hear and see this and become hesitant to sign at State. Maybe, it’s just one or two players, but these could be the ones that move the needle in a couple of years. Rival schools quickly let these 4-star and 5-star talents know that State is on the verge of firing Coach Smith, so come to Tech and play for Coach Williams, who just got a major contract extension and could run for Mayor in Techtown and win by a landslide.
Let me use one example about how insane fandom can be. I will use the hometown college team, Vanderbilt. The Commodores have strict academic restrictions on who coaches can recruit. Of the top 1,000 recruits in a season, about 75 have the academic talent to earn admission to the school. Unfortunately, none of these 75 are required to put Vanderbilt on their list of potential colleges. The A+ student with ACT/SAT scores high enough to gain admission to Vanderbilt, or for that matter, Harvard, Yale, Cal Tech, and MIT, frequently uses that intelligence to realize that four years in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, or Columbus, Ohio, will allow him to be a star in the classroom and on the football field. By becoming a star at Alabama or Ohio State, his ticket for life is virtually guaranteed to be a skybox seat with private valet parking.
First year Vanderbilt head football coach Clark Lea faces a near impossible task of trying to recruit enough players in the high three-star range and up to compete in an SEC that is light years tougher than it was 10 years ago. With Oklahoma and Texas headed to the league, the small private school that shares more in common with former SEC member Sewanee and former Big Ten member Chicago than Alabama or Georgia is in an impossible position to succeed. The talent level between Vanderbilt and the next weakest team in the SEC is almost as far apart as the number 13 SEC team is to Alabama and Georgia. Lea has talent that could not win the Conference USA divisions. 20 FCS teams have more talent, and East Tennessee State totally dominated the Commodores in the season opener.
Vanderbilt defeated 1-8 Connecticut, a team that only beat Yale and then just barely, when the Huskies had to use their backup quarterback. The Commodores won the game on a final play field goal by a kicker that had been #2 at Alabama and was not going to see action. That UConn team lost to UMass, a team that was just dominated by Rhode Island.
Lea took over a car that had brake, transmission, steering, and suspension issues along with bald tires and a leaking head gasket. He has to drive on the same street with 13 brand new state of the art smart cars. Yet, there are deluded fans that believe he should be at the head of the motorcade and is to blame for the car not being able to stay in its lane or even start on cold mornings.
The monumental task of trying to build this program into one that can compete for minor bowls once every three years is already suffering from the arrows being publicly shot by a small amount of vocal fans, three of which have sent me emails venting about how Lea cannot coach. Since I do not participate in any of the public sports forums for Vanderbilt athletics, as I basically stopped following the program as a fan over a decade ago, I only see what these fans send me, but I can easily see that when recruits read this scathing criticism on these forums, and both their parents and they do read them, it creates reasonable doubt, and players begin to decommit, which has happened in the last fortnight.
Years ago, I made a public statement on a sports radio show that trying to win SEC football games at Vanderbilt was akin to beating a similarly skilled opponent in chess when he has both queens, and you have nine pawns. These vociferous fans have now robbed Lea of a bishop. Lea will be the coach at Vanderbilt for at least three more years after this season, and a minority of Vanderbilt fans may see their opinions become fact somewhat because the three recruits per year they turn away makes the difference in a couple of wins per year.
If you are a fan of a fledgling football program like Arizona, Kansas, or Vanderbilt, anything you can legally do to enhance your school’s recruiting efforts should be the obvious way to support your school other than with your checkbook. Successful recruiting is the only way a school can overcome bad times and improve to mediocre to decent to above average to really good. In the SEC of the mid 2020’s, Vanderbilt may face a situation similar to what Sewanee and Chicago faced in the late 1930’s. The task for Coach Lea is already close to impossible; if you root for the Commodores, don’t remove the “close.”