The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 19, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:01 pm

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday August 24
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Florida (n) Miami (Fla.) 11.0 9.5 8.9
Hawaii Arizona -2.2 -0.3 -3.4
 

 

Thursday August 29
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Cincinnati UCLA 2.6 1.1 3.7
Tulane Florida Int’l. 4.4 5.4 3.7
Clemson Georgia Tech 36.7 34.0 36.7
Texas A&M Texas St. 36.5 33.7 34.9
Arizona St. Kent St. 26.4 24.6 26.8
BYU Utah -13.5 -11.5 -13.5
 

 

Friday August 30
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Army Rice 28.2 26.4 28.7
South Florida Wisconsin -12.1 -10.1 -10.9
Michigan St. Tulsa 27.1 26.4 26.2
Rutgers Massachusetts 21.2 18.1 21.2
Wake Forest Utah St. 1.3 2.0 0.0
Nevada Purdue -15.2 -13.4 -15.2
Colorado (n) Colorado St. 20.5 14.8 20.6
Oregon St. Oklahoma St. -11.9 -10.8 -12.3
 

 

Saturday August 31
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. East Carolina 18.9 16.1 19.5
Illinois Akron 16.5 17.3 15.4
Indiana (n) Ball St. 23.8 22.4 23.3
Nebraska South Alabama 35.9 33.8 36.8
Ohio St. Florida Atlantic 32.2 31.1 31.7
Kentucky Toledo 21.3 19.7 19.0
Memphis Ole Miss 3.1 3.7 5.6
Louisiana (n) Mississippi St. -25.0 -19.6 -25.8
North Carolina (n) South Carolina -14.3 -11.3 -12.7
Tennessee Georgia St. 30.8 29.0 30.3
Alabama (n) Duke 31.3 26.7 32.2
Coastal Carolina Eastern Michigan -5.2 -4.1 -7.1
Stanford Northwestern 0.3 0.1 1.5
Boston College Virginia Tech -1.5 -2.6 -1.6
Liberty Syracuse -21.3 -19.4 -21.0
Arkansas St. SMU -5.4 -4.3 -5.8
Florida St. (n) Boise St. 2.0 3.6 1.9
Vanderbilt Georgia -18.7 -17.8 -20.0
Auburn (n) Oregon 3.8 0.9 1.5
LSU Georgia Southern 28.0 25.3 27.3
Wyoming Missouri -18.5 -12.7 -17.7
Iowa Miami (O) 27.4 26.6 26.8
Michigan Middle Tennessee 35.2 33.8 35.8
Pittsburgh Virginia 3.4 2.4 2.7
Texas Louisiana Tech 23.4 23.5 22.5
Washington St. New Mexico St. 37.0 32.5 37.4
USC Fresno St. 7.2 8.0 6.8
 

 

Sunday/Monday September 1/2
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Oklahoma Houston 28.2 25.7 24.9
Louisville Notre Dame -23.8 -22.4 -25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home Visitor PiRate
San Jose St. Northern Colorado 14.5
Connecticut Wagner 12.6
Central Michigan Albany 9.8
Bowling Green Morgan St. 17.2
Buffalo Robert Morris 43.9
Charlotte Gardner-Webb 26.5
Western Kentucky Central Arkansas 11.9
Central Florida Florida A&M 45.5
UAB Alabama St. 45.5
Minnesota South Dakota St. 12.7
UNLV Southern Utah 17.3
Air Force Colgate 11.3
New Mexico Sam Houston St. 9.7
Maryland Howard 36.0
Iowa St. Northern Iowa 22.2
Kansas Indiana St. 13.8
West Virginia James Madison 18.5
Ohio U Rhode Island 27.6
Washington E. Washington 18.0
Temple Bucknell 44.2
Navy Holy Cross 24.4
Penn St. Idaho 40.5
Appalachian St. East Tennessee 36.3
Arkansas Portland St. 21.0
Texas Tech Montana St. 25.7
UTSA Incarnate Word 7.3
Troy Campbell 33.8
California UC-Davis 14.5
Marshall VMI 37.8
Old Dominion Norfolk St. 23.5
Southern Miss Alcorn St. 23.6
Kansas St. Nicholls 23.9
Baylor Stephen F Austin 37.3
Northern Illinois Illinois St. 7.3
Western Michigan Monmouth 20.5
North Texas Abilene Christian 19.4
UTEP Houston Baptist 15.2
TCU Ark. Pine Bluff 52.3
Louisiana-Monroe Grambling 24.3
San Diego St. Weber St. 8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0
2 Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7
3 Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1
4 Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4
5 L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0
6 Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6
7 Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5
8 Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0
9 Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4
10 Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2
11 Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0
12 Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8
13 Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7
14 Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5
15 Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6
16 Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5
17 Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2
18 Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8
19 South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2
20 Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8
21 Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9
22 Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8
23 Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6
24 Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2
25 Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2
26 Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1
27 Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7
28 Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2
29 Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1
30 Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6
31 Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5
32 Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2
33 Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9
34 Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7
35 Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3
36 Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1
37 Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0
38 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7
39 Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7
40 Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7
41 California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4
42 Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3
43 Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2
44 U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8
45 Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8
46 Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3
47 West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1
48 Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6
49 Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5
50 Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0
51 U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4
52 Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4
53 Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1
54 Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0
55 Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9
56 Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8
57 Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2
58 T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2
59 Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7
60 North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6
61 Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2
62 Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1
63 Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7
64 BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7
65 Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4
66 North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5
67 Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1
68 Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9
69 Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7
70 Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6
71 Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2
72 SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1
73 Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2
74 Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4
75 Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2
76 Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7
77 Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6
78 Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2
79 Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1
80 Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6
81 South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2
82 Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1
83 Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9
84 San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8
85 Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8
86 Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2
87 Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1
88 Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9
89 Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9
90 Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2
91 North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1
92 Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6
93 Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3
94 Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0
95 Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9
96 Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8
97 Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5
98 Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0
99 Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9
100 Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5
101 Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3
102 Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4
103 Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4
104 Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8
105 Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7
106 Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6
107 U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0
108 U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3
109 Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1
110 Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7
111 East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0
112 Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5
113 Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2
114 San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2
115 Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2
116 Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2
117 New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1
118 Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4
119 Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4
120 Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0
121 New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0
122 Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7
123 Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5
124 Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0
125 Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5
126 Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8
127 South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2
128 Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6
129 Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5
130 U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1 0-0 0-0
Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3 0-0 0-0
Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2 0-0 0-0
South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2 0-0 0-0
East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0 0-0 0-0
Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0 0-0 0-0
SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1 0-0 0-0
Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7 0-0 0-0
Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2 0-0 0-0
Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0 0-0 0-0
Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1 0-0 0-0
 

 

AAC Averages 95.2 95.9 95.8 95.6
 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7 0-0 0-0
Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8 0-0 0-0
Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5 0-0 0-0
Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1 0-0 0-0
Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2 0-0 0-0
North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6 0-0 0-0
Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6 0-0 0-0
Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9 0-0 0-0
Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7 0-0 0-0
Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3 0-0 0-0
Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9 0-0 0-0
North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5 0-0 0-0
Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

ACC Averages 106.6 106.1 106.9 106.5
 

 

Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0 0-0 0-0
Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9 0-0 0-0
Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1 0-0 0-0
Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1 0-0 0-0
Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5 0-0 0-0
Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8 0-0 0-0
West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1 0-0 0-0
T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big 12 Averages 108.2 108.6 107.7 108.2
 

 

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4 0-0 0-0
Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6 0-0 0-0
Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5 0-0 0-0
Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6 0-0 0-0
Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7 0-0 0-0
Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7 0-0 0-0
Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2 0-0 0-0
Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2 0-0 0-0
Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7 0-0 0-0
Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2 0-0 0-0
Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2 0-0 0-0
Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7 0-0 0-0
Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big Ten Averages 110.1 109.4 109.6 109.7
 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2 0-0 0-0
Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2 0-0 0-0
Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9 0-0 0-0
Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5 0-0 0-0
Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6 0-0 0-0
Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7 0-0 0-0
Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9 0-0 0-0
North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1 0-0 0-0
Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0 0-0 0-0
U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0 0-0 0-0
Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0 0-0 0-0
Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5 0-0 0-0
U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

CUSA Averages 86.2 86.8 86.6 86.5
 

 

FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5 x 0-0
Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7 x 0-0
BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7 x 0-0
Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7 x 0-0
New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0 x 0-0
Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6 x 0-0
 

 

Indep. Averages 94.2 95.2 94.3 94.5
 

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6 0-0 0-0
Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3 0-0 0-0
Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8 0-0 0-0
Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2 0-0 0-0
Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2 0-0 0-0
Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1 0-0 0-0
Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9 0-0 0-0
Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4 0-0 0-0
Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5 0-0 0-0
Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

MAC Averages 88.3 88.1 88.8 88.4
 

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6 0-0 0-0
Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0 0-0 0-0
Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4 0-0 0-0
Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1 0-0 0-0
New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1 0-0 0-0
Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1 0-0 0-0
San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6 0-0 0-0
U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3 0-0 0-0
San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

MWC Averages 93.0 94.7 93.1 93.6
 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8 0-0 0-0
Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8 0-0 0-0
Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6 0-0 0-0
Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3 0-0 0-0
California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4 0-0 0-0
Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0 0-0 0-0
Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7 0-0 0-0
U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8 0-0 0-0
U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4 0-0 0-0
Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.5 107.1
 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1 0-0 0-0
Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4 0-0 0-0
Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5 0-0 0-0
South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2 0-0 0-0
Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2 0-0 0-0
Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0 0-0 0-0
Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0 0-0 0-0
L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0 0-0 0-0
Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2 0-0 0-0
Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8 0-0 0-0
Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7 0-0 0-0
Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4 0-0 0-0
Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.3 113.2 114.6 114.4
 

 

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4 0-0 0-0
Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2 0-0 0-0
Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2 0-0 0-0
Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3 0-0 0-0
Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5 0-0 0-0
Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4 0-0 0-0
Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2 0-0 0-0
South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

SBC Averages 89.5 90.2 88.8 89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings

 

# League Average
1 SEC 114.4
2 BTen 109.7
3 B12 108.2
4 P12 107.1
5 ACC 106.5
6 AAC 95.6
7 Ind 94.5
8 MWC 93.6
9 SUN 89.5
10 MAC 88.4
11 CUSA 86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Cincinnati
3 Utah St.
4 Boise St.
5 Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conf Conf Team Team
Bahamas MAC CUSA Western Michigan Southern Miss.
Frisco AAC At-large Houston Florida Int’l.
Cure AAC SBC Temple Georgia Southern
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech San Diego St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Central Florida Ohio
Camellia MAC SBC Eastern Michigan Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Utah St. UCLA
New Orleans CUSA SBC #1 UAB Appalachian St.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Hawaii BYU/MWC AAC BYU Memphis
Independence ACC SEC Florida St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Northwestern
Military ACC AAC Pittsburgh South Florida
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Minnesota
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Mississippi St.
Holiday Pac-12 Big Ten Washington St. Iowa
Cheez-It Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Hawaii
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) Iowa St.
Cotton At-large At-large Army Washington
First Responder CUSA Big 12 Marshall TCU
Redbox Pac-12 Big Ten Stanford Wisconsin
Music City SEC ACC Indiana Wake Forest
Orange ACC BTen/SEC Notre Dame Florida
Belk ACC SEC Syracuse Tennessee
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Tech Arizona St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Arizona SBC MWC Troy Fresno St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor Oregon
Citrus SEC BTen/ACC Texas A&M Nebraska
Outback Big Ten SEC Auburn Penn St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Utah
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC SMU North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator SEC Big Ten South Carolina Michigan St.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Air Force
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Purdue Boise St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta Top 4 Top 4 Clemson Georgia
Peach Top 4 Top 4 Alabama Michigan
Champsionship Fiesta Peach Clemson Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

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August 18, 2019

2019 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

Current Penn State and former Vanderbilt football coach James Franklin once said, “The three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, AFC, and SEC.”  Even though Clemson has taken Alabama to the woodshed twice in three years, the SEC is still the class of college football.  Clemson has no rival in the ACC like Alabama has in the SEC.  There are no Georgia, LSU, Florida, or Texas A&M types in the ACC.  Clemson played Texas A&M last year; it was a close game, and the Aggies had a chance to win it.  They go to Clemson early this season, and it is probably the only game Clemson will have to worry about until the Playoffs.

In the East Division, Georgia is the only team that has won the SEC Championship in the last 10 seasons.  The Bulldogs won the 2017 title, and they led Alabama in the National Championship Game until Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench and became the best quarterback to wear the Crimson since Ken Stabler and Joe Namath.  Georgia lost to LSU last season and then led Alabama into the second half in the Championship Game, before Tua rallied the Tide again.  Can the third year be the charm?  Coach Kirby Smart has star quarterback Jake Fromm and talented running back D’Andre Swift back behind a tough offensive line.  The receiving corps is thin on experience but has some talent, and with Fromm throwing the ball, the passing game will top 200 yards a game.

The Bulldog defense had a little trouble stopping some enemy quarterbacks last year, but the secondary will be improved in 2019.  The Bulldog defense should yield 17 or less points per game, and Georgia has a chance to go 12-0 and get that third chance in a row to stop the Tide.

Florida won 10 games in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach in the Swamp.  The Gators should be Georgia’s principle competitor this year, but Mullen has some rebuilding to do on the attack side.  Feleipe Franks is a near star at quarterback.  If he stays healthy, Franks should pass for 3,000 yards this year, as Florida has a receiving corps that rivals Alabama’s in the league.  A defense that returns a lot up front and in back could give the Gators a chance in Jacksonville against the Bulldogs.

Unless an appeal is successful, Missouri will be on probation this year and not eligible for the SEC Championship Game, the Playoffs, or a bowl.  The Tigers might be the dark horse in the division, and if eligibility is restored, this team might be good enough to sneak into the division title picture, probably in a three-way tie.  Former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant replaces Drew Lock at quarterback, and the Missouri offense will be a little different, using Bryant’s ability to run.  The Tigers have an excellent receiving corps, led by a potential Mackie Award-winning tight end Albert Okwuegbunam.  The Missouri defense is not up to the standards of Florida and Georgia, but Coach Barry Odom has been gifted with a plum of a schedule this year.  The Tigers have a chance to go to Georgia on November 9 with an 8-0 record.

South Carolina and Tennessee are teams in transition.  The Gamecocks are trying to stay relevant against a tough schedule, while Tennessee is trying to return to relevance after several years under .500 in the SEC.  The Gamecocks are looking at a mild rebuilding year with a young, inexperienced defense that gave up more than 27 points last year.  Having to compete with Florida and Georgia is tough, but USC has three tough non-conference opponents, in rival Clemson plus North Carolina and Appalachian St.

Tennessee returns the most starters of any team in a power 5 conference, and the Vols have a rather strong group of redshirt freshmen available for second year coach Jeremy Pruitt.  Pruitt is a master defensive specialist, and the Volunteers will improve on their 2018 numbers of 28 points and 377 yards per game allowed.  The Big Orange offense was inconsistent last year, and it won’t be championship quality this year.  With Jim Chaney brought on board as offensive coordinator, Tennessee should be a little more consistent in 2019, and the Vols should improve to the plus side of .500 and make a bowl game.

Kentucky had its best season since 1977 in 2018, but the Wildcats face a major rebuilding year under Coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats lost All-American Josh Allen off the defense, and even if they returned the rest of that unit, it would mean the defense would be weaker.  Unfortunately, UK lost six other starters from this side of the ball, and it was defense that allowed UK to win 10 games last year.  The offense also lost seven starters, including star running back Benny Snell.  Terry Wilson is a serviceable quarterback, but he’s not going to shred defensive backfields like Fromm or Franks in the East.

Vanderbilt is the perennial choice for last place in the East Division, but Coach Derek Mason has been able to produce bowl eligibility twice in three years, even having to play a tough non-conference foe in those years.  The Commodores lost star quarterback Kyle Shurmur, but they bring in former Ball State starter Riley Neal, and Neal has the talent to equal or even top the production given by Shurmur.  With running back Keyshawn Vaughn returning after leading the SEC in rushing, and with a receiving corps that is deep and talented, the Commodores could average more than 400 total yards and 30 points per game this year.  Unfortunately, the defense may give up even more, and that is why Vandy might not be as dandy in 2019.  The losses of secondary stars Joejuan Williams and Ladarius Wiley will be tough on an inexperienced pass defense.

In the West, Alabama is the odds-on favorite to go 12-0, win the SEC Championship Game, and then win the semifinal game in the Playoffs, where a rematch with Clemson will excite college football fans from coast to coast.  In the Nick Saban years in Tuscaloosa, the Tide has had numerous stars drafted into the NFL, and it looked Saban had a little rebuilding to do.  At Alabama, one future star replaces a former star.  There is no such thing as rebuilding when you perpetually have the number one recruiting class in college football.  With Tagovailoa returning at quarterback, and with the best receiving corps outside of the NFL, Alabama should have no trouble topping 40 or even 45 points and 300-350 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide has the SEC’s best defense yet again, but they could be a tad vulnerable against some tough running backs and top of the line quarterbacks (like Fromm).  It will not be a cakewalk for the Crimson Tide this year.  One team is liable to upset them along the way, but whether that team can also finish 7-1 in the league and win the crown is highly unlikely.

LSU appears to have the best chance of dethroning the King.  The Tigers won 10 games last year but did not compete with Alabama, losing at home 29-0.  Coach Ed Orgeron has done a fine job recruiting talent to Baton Rouge, and in quarterback Joe Burrow, he has a potentially great passer, something that has prevented the Tigers from beating Alabama in recent years.  Defensively, the Tigers have the best defense not wearing crimson, and the LSU secondary might be the best in the nation.  It will give the Tigers a chance to stop Tua and the Tide.  An early game against Texas in Austin should give the nation a great look to see if LSU has what it takes to knock off the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium in November.

Texas A&M faces an impossible schedule.  They play Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia, which is just plain brutal.  Second year coach Jimbo Fisher has worked wonders in his short time in College Station, but the A&M defense is going to be battered and bruised by these top notch offenses.  The Aggies could average more than 40 points per game in the other eight contests, and it would not be a surprise to see them upset one of those four powers.  At the same time, Auburn, Mississippi State, and South Carolina might sneak up and upset the Aggies.  8-4 is about the best that can be expected under these circumstances.

Auburn also has an impossible schedule this year, as in addition to Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M in the West, the Tigers have their annual game against Georgia, and then they must commence play against a tough Oregon team in a neutral site game.  With the loss of Jarrett Stidham and his top two targets, the offense may take a step backwards.  The defense should be quite strong, but in the SEC West, the Tigers could lose a lot of 21-17 games.  Coach Gus Malzahn is in a bit of a pickle on the Plains, and if War Eagles don’t win nine times this year, Gus may be on the bus out of town.

Mississippi State might be strong enough to compete for a division title in the Pac-12 or Big 12, but in the SEC West, they are probably not even in the top four.  In a league with incredibly talented defenses, the Bulldogs had the best of all in 2018, holding nine teams under 14 points.  Still, it led to only an 8-5 season, and the Maroons have issues on the offensive side of the ball this year, especially the all-important passing game.  Only a strong chance of going 4-0 outside the league will guarantee the Bulldogs bowl eligibility.

Arkansas might be the true sleeper of the league this year.  Second year coach Chad Morris had a major transition when he came to Fayetteville and switched the Razorbacks from a smash mouth offense to a more finesse spread offense.  He didn’t have the personnel to make the offense shine.  He will have a lot more of the necessary pieces this season, and he has a quarterback that can make the offense go.  Ben Hicks was Morris’s quarterback at SMU, when the Mustangs passed for close to 300 yards and scored 38 points per game in 2017.  He won’t replicate those numbers in the SEC, but Arkansas should top 28 points per game and challenge for a 6-6 record and bowl eligibility.

Ole Miss comes off probation this year, and the Rebels can become eligible for a bowl once again.  Unfortunately, the Rebels face a major rebuilding and transitioning with new offensive and defensive coordinators.  The offense welcomes Rich Rodriguez, and his read-option spread to the SEC.  The West Division foes have many years experience facing a nearly identical offense at Auburn, so it will not be something new and surprising.  The Rebels will not be as talented or competent at Auburn running this offense, so Ole Miss should see a considerable dip in production on this side of the ball.  Of course, losing quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and three star receivers would hurt no matter what offense was being run.  Defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre has a lot more experience to work with on his side of the ball, but the Rebels lack the talent to compete against the rest of the West.  It could be a long year in Oxford.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Southeastern Conference Media Poll
 

 

East Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall
1 Georgia 233 1789
2 Florida 21 1499
3 Missouri 3 1149
4 S. Carolina 1 883
5 Tennessee 1 804
6 Kentucky 1 798
7 Vanderbilt 0 358
 

 

West Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall
1 Alabama 253 1813
2 LSU 5 1493
3 Texas A&M 0 1268
4 Auburn 1 1090
5 Mississippi St. 1 769
6 Ole Miss 0 504
7 Arkansas 0 343
 

 

Championship Game Winner Overall Votes
Alabama 203
Georgia 49
LSU 3
Mississippi St. 1
Tennessee 1
Florida 1
South Carolina 1
Auburn 1

 

The PiRate Ratings show just how strong the league begins the 2019 season.  Ten teams begin 2019 at least 10 points better than the average FBS school.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–SEC

 

East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 126.2 123.6 126.6 125.5
Florida 120.5 117.8 119.5 119.2
Missouri 115.3 112.4 115.3 114.3
S. Carolina 114.0 112.2 113.9 113.4
Tennessee 112.6 111.6 111.1 111.8
Kentucky 109.5 107.5 108.3 108.4
Vanderbilt 104.3 103.3 103.4 103.7
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 135.6 130.6 136.4 134.2
L S U 123.3 120.4 122.0 121.9
Texas A&M 118.6 116.6 117.0 117.4
Auburn 116.8 114.4 115.9 115.7
Mississippi St. 117.0 112.5 116.7 115.4
Ole Miss 102.0 101.1 100.7 101.3
Arkansas 100.0 100.5 99.3 100.0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.4 113.2 114.7 114.4

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss

 

East Division

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Georgia 8-0 12-1
2 Florida 6-2 10-2
3 Missouri 5-3 9-3
4 Tennessee 3-5 7-5
5 South Carolina 3-5 6-6
6 Kentucky 2-6 6-6
7 Vanderbilt 2-6 5-7
 

 

West Division

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Alabama 8-0 13-0*
2 LSU 6-2 10-2
3 Texas A&M 5-3 8-4
4 Auburn 4-4 8-4
5 Mississippi St. 3-5 7-5
6 Ole Miss 2-6 5-7
7 Arkansas 1-7 5-7
 

*

 

Alabama picked to win SEC Championship Game

 

Coaches That Could Be In Line To Get A Top 10 Job

Most of the coaches are already at a program that either is a top 10 job or has the potential to be.  However, there is one coach that could advance to a bigger program

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

 

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Will Muschamp, South Carolina

 

Malzahn’s seat is considerably hotter than Muschamp’s seat.  If Auburn does not find a way to finish in the top three in the SEC West, there will most likely be a change on the Plains.

 

Top Quarterbacks

We have been showcasing three and sometimes four quarterbacks in the other conferences, but there is NFL Draft potential deep into the ranking of SEC quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Feleipe Franks, Florida

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Kelly Bryant, Missouri

Jake Bentley, South Carolina

Joe Burrow, LSU

Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee

 

Best Offense

Alabama

Georgia

Missouri

 

Best Defense

Alabama

LSU

Florida

 

Coming Tomorrow:  It’s finally here!  This is week 0 of the NCAA Football season.  There are two games Saturday, and that means we will debut the full regular season ratings.  Look for our first weekly report tomorrow.

Here’s how we expect to release our information this year.

Mondays: Updated College Football Ratings and Spreads for the week’s FBS games

Tuesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the week’s games

Thursdays: Our PiRate Rating picks for the week’s college and NFL games

Very Important Reminder: The members of the PiRate Ratings do not wager on football games.  We issue our selections just for entertainment purposes only and remind you that they are presented free of charge.  You get what you paid for, so don’t go wagering your mortgage payment on our advice.

That said, the PiRate Picks have returned narrow overall profits for four consecutive seasons.  Our claim to fame is finding Money Line Parlays that return better than even money odds.  Thus, we can hit on just 40% of them and still turn a profit, because the average parlay has +150 to +180 odds.  This means that if you place $1 on a parlay at +180 odds, if you win, you will receive $2.80 back from the Nevada books (Your $1 investment plus a profit of $1.80 for winning the parlay).  If you win 30% of your wagers at +150, you will turn a profit of 5%.  If you can win one of every three parlays at an average of +150, your profit is 16.7%, more than the average return in the stock market over time.  Of course, over time, your chances of profiting in the stock market nears 100%, where in football wagering,  your chances of profiting remains at 47.6%, unless you have inside information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Bowls & Playoffs

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:58 am

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday December 15
New Mexico Bowl 2:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Utah St. North Texas 11.6 10.2 12.4
Cure Bowl 2:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Tulane Louisiana 9.3 7.5 7.3
Las Vegas Bowl 3:30 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Fresno St. Arizona St. 2.8 3.7 3.4
Camellia Bowl 5:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern Eastern Michigan -4.7 -4.2 -4.3
New Orleans Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Appalachian St. Middle Tennessee -0.6 -0.7 -0.2
 

 

Tuesday December 18
Boca Raton Bowl 7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
UAB Northern Illinois -0.6 0.7 -0.2
 

 

Wednesday December 19
Frisco Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
San Diego St. Ohio U -8.7 -9.8 -9.4
 

 

Thursday December 20
Gasparilla Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
South Florida Marshall -1.9 -2.8 -3.0
 

 

Friday December 21
Bahamas Bowl 12:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Toledo Florida Int’l. 9.8 7.9 9.3
Idaho Potato Bowl 4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan BYU -11.1 -10.0 -11.2
 

 

Saturday December 22 12:00 PM on ESPN
Birmingham Bowl
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Memphis Wake Forest -2.3 0.7 0.3
Armed Forces Bowl 3:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Army -1.3 -1.5 -1.2
Dollar General Bowl 7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Troy 5.6 5.8 5.1
Hawaii Bowl 10:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Hawaii Louisiana Tech -3.3 -3.6 -4.0
 

 

Wednesday December 26
First Responder Bowl 1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. Boston College -0.3 1.7 0.5
Quick Lane Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Minnesota Georgia Tech -11.4 -11.6 -11.4
Cheez-it Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
TCU California 0.4 1.2 -0.8
 

 

Thursday December 27 1:30 PM on ESPN
Independence Bowl
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Duke Temple 6.4 4.1 5.0
Pinstripe Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Wisconsin Miami (Fla.) -6.5 -7.5 -7.0
Texas Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Baylor Vanderbilt -0.4 -2.1 -1.1
 

 

Friday December 28
Music City Bowl 1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Auburn Purdue 6.8 7.2 8.4
Camping World Bowl 5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse West Virginia 1.0 0.8 1.2
Arizona Bowl 5:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Nevada Arkansas St. 3.6 2.2 1.6
Alamo Bowl 9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Washington St. -3.3 -3.9 -3.6
 

 

Saturday December 29
Peach Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Florida Michigan -9.7 -9.9 -9.6
Belk Bowl 12:00 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
South Carolina Virginia 5.9 4.8 6.6
Cotton Bowl 4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Clemson Notre Dame 12.6 12.9 14.3
Orange Bowl 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Alabama Oklahoma 19.2 18.7 20.8
 

 

Monday December 31
Redbox Bowl 3:00 PM on Fox
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Oregon Michigan St. -0.8 1.0 0.4
Military Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Tech Cincinnati 1.9 -0.2 1.0
Sun Bowl 2:00 PM on CBS
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Stanford Pittsburgh 5.3 4.2 6.1
Liberty Bowl 3:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Missouri Oklahoma St. 12.0 12.1 13.1
Holiday Bowl 7:00 PM on FS1
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Utah Northwestern 6.0 6.1 6.7
Gator Bowl 7:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Texas A&M -2.9 -2.7 -4.0
 

 

Tuesday January 1
Outback Bowl 12:00 PM on ESPN2
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa Mississippi St. -7.5 -7.8 -9.3
Citrus Bowl 1:00 PM on ABC
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Kentucky Penn St. -6.7 -5.6 -6.5
Fiesta Bowl 1:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
LSU Central Florida 2.9 1.5 3.0
Rose Bowl 5:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio St. Washington 6.9 7.1 6.6
Sugar Bowl 8:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Texas 14.9 14.3 17.1
 

 

Monday January 7
National Championship Game 8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1 Team 2 PiRate Mean Bias
Bama or Okla. Clem or N. Dame

For those that need to know–these ratings include the list of star players that are sitting out their bowl so as not to risk injury prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.  For example, Will Grier will not play for West Virginia, and that is enough to switch the Mountaineers from favorite to underdog.  This includes a list through Saturday, December 9.

NOTE:  The PiRate Ratings will commence with college basketball coverage as soon as all the major conference teams have played their tenth game.  Our rating is meaningless until every team has played 10 games.

Once again, we have combined all three of our sub-ratings into one more accurate rating.  We will issue spreads on weekend games through the conference tournaments and then spreads on the conference tournament games.

Additionally, starting in Mid-January, we will see the return of our Bracketology Gurus, who in two years of existence have gotten all 68 teams in the tournament one year and 67 of the 68 teams in the other.  We hand-picked 12 not-so-angry men that love college basketball and devote about the same amount of time in analyzing college basketball data as we analyze Major League Baseball.

 

 

December 5, 2018

What If… An NCAA Playoffs With No Committee Choices

Four teams are happy.  At least three teams are sad and feel slighted.  Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been invited to the playoffs.  Ohio State and Georgia were jilted.

There could be an argument for Oklahoma and Notre Dame over Ohio State and Georgia.  On the other hand, the folks that know best, those sharps in Nevada, would tell you that Georgia is the third best team in the nation.  Many computers will tell you that on December 29, 2018, Ohio State would be a better team than Oklahoma.

Imagine if specially appointed committees chose other things for the rest of us.  How would you like some insider former politicians explaining to you why Candidate A will be your President instead of Candidate B, even though all the political experts say that Candidate B would be the better Chief Excutive?

What is a special committee of psychologists chose who you will marry based on their criteria.  You may be in love with Michelle, but they may choose Kelly for you because she can balance a checkbook and you cannot?

What if the NFL had to choose just four teams for the playoffs.  This year, there are five really good teams in the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, and Texans.  Maybe the Bears and Chargers are also among the four best.  Do you want a 12-4 division winner not making the NFL Playoffs?

Of course you don’t.  And, the fandom of college football doesn’t buy for a minute that the Selection Committee knows what it’s doing.  Let’s see any of them pick games against the spread.  If they are true experts, then they will put up results that make Billy Walters look like an amateur.

The four team playoff did nothing to solve the problems of the two-team BCS National Championship Game it replaced.  In fact, this year, you could make an excellent argument that just putting Alabama against Clemson would be a better option than picking four out of six or seven deserving teams.

Any legitimate FBS Playoffs must allow every FBS team a chance to play their way into said playoffs.  There are 130 FBS teams.  There needs to be no more than 64 top level teams and preferably 32, but let’s not even talk about separating the Power 5 from the Group of 5.  Let’s talk about honest realignment into 7 conferences of 16 teams  and 1 conference of 18 teams.  In an even better world, two FBS teams would drop down to FCS, leaving 128 teams.

Divide each conference into two divisions.  Every team within a division will play each other during the regular season plus three teams in the other division.  In the 18-team conference, there will be just two teams against the other division.  The rhyme and reason to which schools a team in the other division would play would be made by the league with a rotating schedule so that a different three teams would be played every year, possibly using the NFL’s strategy of having the prior first place team in one division playing the prior first place team in the other division and so on down to the prior last place teams playing each other.

At the end of the season, the top team in each division of each conference would then make the 16-team playoff.  In the first round, the division winners of each conference would play to determine the conference champion.  This would leave eight teams for eight playoff spots.

These conference championship games could be played on neutral sites like the current Power Five Conference Championship Games, or on the home field of the team with the better conference record with set tiebreakers to determine the higher seed if there is a tie.

With the number down to eight, the next round could be played on home fields of the higher seeds as determined by criteria that all teams and all fans will know, just like home field is determined in the NFL.  At no time will a committee of so-called experts determine who is in these playoffs and who will be the home team.

After this second round of the playoffs, the final four can then be played like it is today.

This would give every team a chance to play for the national title, just like all 350 Division 1 basketball teams have a chance.  If you think this isn’t fair to Alabama or Clemson to have to play more games to become national champion, then you must absolutely hate March Madness when Sister Jean and her Loyola Ramblers or Butler or Wichita State can make a run to the Final Four.  You must hate the fact that a Gonzaga can advance from a small program into one of the top 10 in the nation.

If the entire FBS has a chance to win the national title, then all programs will have a chance to do what Gonzaga has done in basketball.

Another bonus could be in scheduling.  Instead of an SEC team like Georgia scheduling Austin Peay and Massachusetts, or Alabama scheduling The Citadel, Arkansas State, and Louisiana (the one in Lafayette and not Baton Rouge), the national schedule makers could schedule Alabama and Oklahoma, or Georgia and Michigan.

What about the FBS vs. FCS games?  Why not give each FBS team two preseason games against FCS teams, where the FBS team pays the FCS team a check just like they do now?  With all the extra billions coming into this new paradigm, the FBS teams could keep these FCS programs solvent without putting a 63-3 pasting on them in a regular season game.

November 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 29-December 3, 2018

Our Land Sharps have become the 1970’s Boston Red Sox.  Most years during this decade, the Red Sox had a division lead well into multiple seasons only to suffer a disappointing finish and close with a mediocre record or just short of winning the division.  In one year, they lost by a half-game that is obviously the shortest losing margin ever.  In one year, they lost in a one-game playoff.  In another year, they led the division into September only to finish in a second place tie 1 1/2 games out.  Yes, there was 1975, the year Baltimore’s great teams of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s began to fall apart, and a year before the Yankees began their fantastic run.  It was like 1967 all over again, as the rest of the pack fell apart in September.

Our five Land Sharps were in the equivalent of first place in the football season equivalent of the first 120 games.  All five sported winning records with fat returns on investment.  We wrote about how incredible this feat was–that five people at random would contribute to this site and all beat the spread by healthy margins through October.

Ah, but the Autumn winds were definitely Raiders to our Land Sharps’ bank accounts.  As we lampoon the month as “No Fave November, the underdogs began to have their days. Teams that were winning easily and covering deflated spreads began to feel the effects of the long grind.  Teams with nothing to lose began to play their future prospects, especially those that could still play multiple games and take a red shirt under the new rules.  Certain players began to feel the pressure of playing for a division title or stay in contention for the NCAA Playoffs.  Weather began to affect games and lower scores.  All in all, once November football began, the underdogs began covering the spread a tiny bit more than in previous weeks.  Some of this could also have been attributed to the public falling in love with teams that won big in September and October.

Well, it affected our Land Sharps.  Two of the five have performed like the 1977 Chicago Cubs.  If you don’t remember the 1977 Cubs, they were more than 20 games over .500 in the first half of the season and running away with the division, just like the 1969 Cubs.  However, the 1977 squad completely reversed in the second half, losing so many games that they ended the season 81-81, a full 21 games out of first place.

The other three Land Sharps have done a little better, but all five have given away some investment to the mighty Books in November.

We now come to Championship Week.  Except in a couple of cases where teams are playing last-minute replacement games to make up for the September hurricane, the teams playing this week are all top-rated squads.  There is no decisive underdog that can over-perform, and the players will be fighting tooth and nail to their last ounce of energy to win this week.  It is almost like September again, except there are more injuries and players playing while injured to some extent.  We think, or at least we hope the Land Sharps will close with a rush to reclaim their prior financial fame.

Ironically, as our Land Sharps have struggled in November, the PiRate Ratings have been on fire with back-to-back winning weeks.  We will probably jinx ourselves by revealing this, but we have been on a big hot streak with our NFL 10-point Teasers.  In fact, in the last two weeks, we are 7-0, and in the last five weeks, it is 20-7.  Our college picks belong in the sewer, but since we are here for entertainment purposes only, and we know about 65% of you reading this come here for college football, we will continue to issue both college and pro football selections.  Just please take our advice: NEVER wager real currency (or the stuff they pass off as real) on the selections you see made here.  You have some presents to buy for your relatives, so don’t end up having to give them that 10-year old fruitcake (can you really tell the difference between fresh and 10-years old?), because you cannot afford the Isotoner gloves after you lost all the money betting on one of our goofy parlays.

Because this week’s schedule featured a limited schedule, we allowed the Sharps to pick as few as one game up to a maximum of five games.  None chose the easy way out and selected just one or two games.  Our Sharps chose three, four, or five games.

1. Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 38-29-0  56.7%

Return on Investment: +9.1%

California +3 vs. Stanford

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

2. Buckeye Michelle

Season: 32-26-1  55.2%

Return on Investment: +5.8%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Ohio St. -14 vs. Northwestern

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

3. Stewed Meat

Season: 36-31-3  53.7%

Return on Investment: +2.7%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

4. Dean615

Season: 29-27-2  51.8%

Return on Investment: -1.2%

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Georgia +13 1/2 vs. Alabama

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

 

5. Friday Dog 13

Season: 34-33-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.4%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Middle Tennessee -1 1/2 vs. UAB

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE

Moneyline Parlay 2 @ +183
Must Win Must Lose
Central Florida Memphis
Boise St. Fresno St.

 

Moneyline Parlay 3 @ +191
Must Win Must Lose
Buffalo Northern Illinois
Virginia Tech Marshall
Appalachian St. Louisiana

 

NFL

10-Point Teaser 3-Game Parlay @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Dallas New Orleans 3 New Orleans
Green Bay Arizona 4 Green Bay
Baltimore Atlanta 11 Atlanta
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Denver Cincinnati 15 Cincinnati
L.A. Rams Detroit Pk L.A. Rams
Kansas City Oakland 4.5 Kansas City
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee N.Y. Jets 19 N.Y. Jets
New England Minnesota 5.5 New England
Seattle San Francisco Pk Seattle
 

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Washington Philadelphia 3.5 Philadelphia
Kansas City Oakland 24.5 Oakland
Chicago N.Y. Giants 14.5 N.Y. Giants

 

November 25, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 14

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Friday November 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Mid-American Conference Championship Game @ Buffalo
Buffalo Northern Illinois 5.9 6.9 7.0
 

 

Pac-12 Conference Championship Game @ Santa Clara, CA
Washington Utah 5.4 4.5 5.4

 

Saturday November 24
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX
Oklahoma Texas 7.2 7.4 7.6
 

 

Sun Belt Conference Championship Game @ Appy St.
Appalachian St. Louisiana 17.8 17.6 18.0
 

 

Conference USA Championship Game @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee UAB 2.3 2.0 2.8
 

 

American Athletic Conference Championship Game @ Central FL
Central Florida Memphis 11.3 10.4 10.8
 

 

Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta
Alabama Georgia 12.8 13.4 13.3
 

 

Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ Boise St.
Boise St. Fresno St. 2.7 3.0 3.2
 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC
Clemson Pittsburgh 30.3 28.7 31.4
 

 

Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN
Ohio St. Northwestern 15.5 15.4 16.0

Other Saturday Games

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Tech Marshall 12.6 8.6 10.7
North Carolina St. East Carolina 30.9 29.9 30.5
South Carolina Akron 30.2 28.2 30.4
California Stanford -5.2 -5.0 -5.2

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Iowa St. Drake 42.7
Liberty Norfolk St. 26.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.3 139.7 143.1 141.4
2 Clemson 138.8 136.5 139.5 138.3
3 Georgia 128.6 126.3 129.8 128.2
4 Ohio St. 126.3 124.5 126.4 125.7
5 Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5
6 Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2
7 Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1
8 Washington 122.0 119.9 122.4 121.4
9 Oklahoma 121.5 120.2 121.3 121.0
10 Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9
11 Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4
12 L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6
13 Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8
14 West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6
15 Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4
16 Utah 116.6 115.3 117.0 116.3
17 Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3
18 Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2
19 Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8
20 Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4
21 Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.5 114.3
22 Stanford 114.5 112.3 114.5 113.8
23 Texas 114.3 112.8 113.7 113.6
24 Iowa State 113.5 111.8 112.9 112.7
25 Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6
26 S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.6 112.4
27 Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2
28 Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1
29 N. Carolina St. 112.5 111.6 111.7 111.9
30 Fresno St. 111.8 111.3 111.8 111.7
31 Boise St. 111.5 111.4 112.0 111.6
32 Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3
33 Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1
34 Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7
35 Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4
36 Northwestern 110.7 109.2 110.4 110.1
37 Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6
38 Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3
39 Pittsburgh 109.5 108.7 109.0 109.1
40 Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0
41 Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5
42 Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2
43 California 108.3 106.3 108.3 107.6
44 U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3
45 Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0
46 Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9
47 Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9
48 Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8
49 Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6
50 T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6
51 Memphis 104.7 106.0 105.7 105.5
52 Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8
53 Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2
54 Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0
55 Virginia Tech 104.3 103.1 103.5 103.6
56 Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4
57 Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3
58 Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1
59 Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9
60 Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3
61 Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2
62 Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7
63 Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6
64 BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4
65 Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3
66 Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9
67 Buffalo 99.6 101.6 100.9 100.7
68 N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5
69 Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0
70 U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0
71 Appalachian St. 98.7 100.6 100.3 99.8
72 Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5
73 Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5
74 Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7
75 Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3
76 Middle Tennessee 96.2 98.2 97.4 97.3
77 Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0
78 U A B 95.9 98.2 96.6 96.9
79 Northern Illinois 96.2 97.1 96.4 96.6
80 N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5
81 Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9
82 Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8
83 Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6
84 Marshall 94.2 97.0 95.3 95.5
85 Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9
86 Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8
87 San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
88 SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7
89 Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1
90 Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4
91 Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3
92 Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4
93 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0
94 South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8
95 Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7
96 Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9
97 Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7
98 Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6
99 Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5
100 Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4
101 Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1
102 UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4
103 Akron 85.6 86.5 85.1 85.8
104 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3
105 Louisiana 83.3 85.5 84.8 84.5
106 Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7
107 U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5
108 Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4
109 Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3
110 East Carolina 83.1 83.2 82.7 83.0
111 Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0
112 New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6
113 Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6
114 Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5
115 Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9
116 Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8
117 San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5
118 Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5
119 Liberty 80.4 79.9 80.4 80.3
120 Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7
121 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3
122 Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8
123 Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1
124 U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0
125 South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1
126 Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7
127 N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8
128 Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6
129 Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.0 114.4 114.5 114.3 8-0 11-0
Temple 105.5 105.8 106.1 105.8 7-1 8-4
Cincinnati 102.7 104.1 103.2 103.3 6-2 10-2
South Florida 90.5 91.9 90.1 90.8 3-5 7-5
East Carolina 83.1 83.2 82.7 83.0 1-7 3-8
Connecticut 70.2 70.5 69.3 70.0 0-8 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.7 106.0 105.7 105.5 5-3 8-4
Houston 101.1 101.6 101.2 101.3 5-3 8-4
SMU 94.2 93.7 93.2 93.7 4-4 5-7
Tulane 93.0 93.5 92.7 93.1 5-3 6-6
Tulsa 90.0 89.8 90.0 89.9 2-6 3-9
Navy 88.7 90.5 88.8 89.4 2-6 3-9
AAC Averages 94.8 95.4 94.8 95.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 138.8 136.5 139.5 138.3 8-0 12-0
Syracuse 112.7 111.4 112.2 112.1 6-2 9-3
N. Carolina St. 112.5 111.6 111.7 111.9 5-3 8-3
Boston College 111.6 109.4 111.1 110.7 4-4 7-5
Wake Forest 106.8 105.0 105.0 105.6 3-5 6-6
Florida St. 103.7 102.4 102.8 102.9 3-5 5-7
Louisville 83.9 83.3 82.7 83.3 0-8 2-10
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.8 114.4 115.4 115.2 4-4 7-5
Georgia Tech 113.1 111.9 112.7 112.6 5-3 7-5
Pittsburgh 109.5 108.7 109.0 109.1 6-2 7-5
Duke 109.4 107.4 108.6 108.5 3-5 7-5
Virginia 106.2 106.1 105.4 105.9 4-4 7-5
Virginia Tech 104.3 103.1 103.5 103.6 4-4 5-6
N. Carolina 100.7 100.0 100.7 100.5 1-7 2-9
ACC Averages 109.2 108.0 108.6 108.6
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.5 120.2 121.3 121.0 8-1 11-1
West Virginia 117.3 116.1 116.5 116.6 6-3 8-3
Texas 114.3 112.8 113.7 113.6 7-2 9-3
Iowa State 113.5 111.8 112.9 112.7 6-3 7-4
Oklahoma St. 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.0 3-6 6-6
Texas Tech 107.0 105.4 105.7 106.0 3-6 5-7
T C U 106.5 105.2 105.1 105.6 4-5 6-6
Kansas St. 104.8 103.6 104.1 104.2 3-6 5-7
Baylor 103.8 102.2 103.4 103.1 4-5 6-6
Kansas 98.4 97.1 97.5 97.7 1-8 3-9
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 126.3 124.5 126.4 125.7 8-1 11-1
Michigan 125.9 124.5 126.3 125.5 8-1 10-2
Penn St. 119.3 117.0 119.0 118.4 6-3 9-3
Michigan St. 112.0 109.9 111.3 111.1 5-4 7-5
Maryland 102.4 100.9 101.5 101.6 3-6 5-7
Indiana 101.4 100.2 101.1 100.9 2-7 5-7
Rutgers 90.2 89.1 89.1 89.5 0-9 1-11
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.2 115.3 116.6 116.4 5-4 8-4
Northwestern 110.7 109.2 110.4 110.1 8-1 8-4
Purdue 110.0 108.3 109.7 109.3 5-4 6-6
Wisconsin 109.3 106.9 108.4 108.2 5-4 7-5
Nebraska 105.4 104.2 104.9 104.8 3-6 4-8
Minnesota 102.8 101.4 102.3 102.2 3-6 6-6
Illinois 89.6 89.0 88.6 89.1 2-7 4-8
Big Ten Averages 108.8 107.2 108.2 108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Middle Tennessee 96.2 98.2 97.4 97.3 7-1 8-4
Marshall 94.2 97.0 95.3 95.5 6-2 8-3
Florida Atlantic 94.4 95.6 94.8 94.9 3-5 5-7
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.0 90.3 91.0 6-2 8-4
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.0 84.7 85.3 2-6 3-9
Charlotte 81.8 84.4 82.7 83.0 4-4 5-7
Old Dominion 79.7 82.9 79.6 80.8 2-6 4-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 95.9 98.2 96.6 96.9 7-1 9-3
N. Texas 95.7 98.2 95.7 96.5 5-3 9-3
Louisiana Tech 89.0 90.9 89.3 89.7 5-3 7-5
Southern Miss. 88.2 91.4 89.0 89.6 4-4 6-5
U T S A 73.6 77.2 74.0 75.0 2-6 3-9
Rice 70.0 72.7 69.0 70.6 1-7 2-11
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.6 69.7 1-7 1-11
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 126.3 123.9 125.4 125.2 x 12-0
Army 103.1 103.8 103.3 103.4 x 9-2
BYU 100.9 101.5 101.9 101.4 x 6-6
Massachusetts 80.9 82.3 81.2 81.5 x 4-8
Liberty 80.4 79.9 80.4 80.3 x 5-6
N. Mexico St. 72.3 73.8 72.3 72.8 x 3-9
Indep. Averages 94.0 94.2 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 103.3 104.5 104.2 104.0 6-2 8-4
Buffalo 99.6 101.6 100.9 100.7 7-1 10-2
Miami (O) 95.7 97.6 97.8 97.0 6-2 6-6
Akron 85.6 86.5 85.1 85.8 2-6 4-7
Bowling Green 80.5 81.4 80.9 80.9 2-6 3-9
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.4 100.9 99.6 100.0 5-3 7-5
Northern Illinois 96.2 97.1 96.4 96.6 6-2 7-5
Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.6 95.5 95.8 5-3 7-5
Western Michigan 89.8 91.4 90.7 90.7 5-3 7-5
Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.7 80.5 3-5 4-8
Central Michigan 79.0 81.0 79.0 79.7 0-8 1-11
MAC Averages 90.3 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.5 111.4 112.0 111.6 7-1 10-2
Utah St. 109.7 110.9 110.6 110.4 7-1 10-2
Wyoming 97.2 97.7 97.2 97.3 4-4 6-6
Air Force 95.6 96.2 95.9 95.9 3-5 5-7
Colorado St. 83.5 84.2 83.3 83.7 2-6 3-9
New Mexico 82.6 83.3 81.8 82.6 1-7 3-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 111.8 111.3 111.8 111.7 7-1 10-2
Nevada 94.8 94.9 94.6 94.8 5-3 7-5
San Diego St. 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7 4-4 7-5
U N L V 83.2 84.1 83.3 83.5 2-6 4-8
Hawaii 82.2 83.8 81.7 82.6 5-3 8-5
San Jose St. 80.4 81.3 79.8 80.5 1-7 1-11
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.0 119.9 122.4 121.4 7-2 9-3
Washington St. 115.8 114.7 115.5 115.3 7-2 10-2
Stanford 114.5 112.3 114.5 113.8 5-3 7-4
Oregon 111.2 110.9 111.8 111.3 5-4 8-4
California 108.3 106.3 108.3 107.6 4-4 7-4
Oregon St. 84.4 82.5 83.4 83.4 1-8 2-10
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.6 115.3 117.0 116.3 6-3 9-3
Arizona St. 110.2 108.9 109.8 109.6 5-4 7-5
U S C 107.1 105.6 106.2 106.3 4-5 5-7
Arizona 102.1 100.7 102.4 101.7 4-5 5-7
U C L A 100.7 100.1 99.2 100.0 3-6 3-9
Colorado 98.4 98.5 98.5 98.5 2-7 5-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.3 107.4 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.6 126.3 129.8 128.2 7-1 11-1
Missouri 121.1 119.6 122.1 120.9 4-4 8-4
Florida 115.2 113.6 115.7 114.8 5-3 9-3
S. Carolina 112.9 111.7 112.6 112.4 4-4 6-5
Kentucky 112.7 111.4 112.5 112.2 5-3 9-3
Vanderbilt 105.7 105.7 106.1 105.9 3-5 6-6
Tennessee 98.6 99.0 98.0 98.5 2-6 5-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 141.3 139.7 143.1 141.4 8-0 12-0
Mississippi St. 124.2 122.6 125.4 124.1 4-4 8-4
L S U 117.6 116.7 118.4 117.6 5-3 9-3
Auburn 116.8 115.6 118.1 116.8 3-5 7-5
Texas A&M 114.6 113.6 115.1 114.4 5-3 8-4
Ole Miss 102.5 101.8 102.7 102.3 1-7 5-7
Arkansas 96.7 94.3 95.7 95.6 0-8 2-10
SEC Averages 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.7 100.6 100.3 99.8 7-1 9-2
Troy 91.4 93.0 92.9 92.4 7-1 9-3
Georgia Southern 90.5 92.4 91.2 91.4 6-2 9-3
Coastal Carolina 76.0 78.1 76.3 76.8 2-6 5-7
Georgia St. 75.6 77.2 75.6 76.1 1-7 2-10
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 91.2 92.8 92.9 92.3 5-3 8-4
UL-Monroe 85.9 86.7 86.5 86.4 4-4 6-6
Louisiana 83.3 85.5 84.8 84.5 5-3 7-5
South Alabama 73.4 75.2 73.8 74.1 2-6 3-9
Texas State 72.8 75.2 73.1 73.7 1-7 3-9
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.9 113.7 115.4 114.6
2 B12 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
3 ACC 109.2 108.0 108.6 108.6
4 BTEN 108.8 107.2 108.2 108.1
5 PAC12 107.6 106.3 107.4 107.1
6 AAC 94.8 95.4 94.8 95.0
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 94.0 94.2 94.1 94.1
9 MAC 90.3 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Top Group of 5

Central Florida will get the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid with a win over Memphis this week in the CUSA Championship Game.  If Memphis pulls off the upset, then UCF could still sneak in depending on how the loss looks.

Should UCF fall by a considerable margin because Mackenzie Milton is out for the season, then Boise State could move above the Golden Knights should the Broncos defeat Fresno State for the second time.

Should Fresno State beat Boise State, and Memphis beat Central Florida, then there could be some issues with the awarding of Bowl Bids.  Because Army doesn’t play Navy until December 8, and the announcement of the bowl bids is December 3, then Army could be excluded even if they blowout Navy by 50 points.  In this instance, Central Florida would probably still get the bid at 11-1.  Had Army defeated Duke at the beginning of the season, then at 11-1 with a loss only to Oklahoma (a game they came close to winning), then the Bowl Committee would have been in a heap of trouble, having to make alternate announcements pending what Army did versus Navy.

At 10-2, Army may still get a chance to play a Power 5 opponent in a bowl game.  Coach Jeff Monken would be a cinch to be offered a Power 5 job if he was not in the Paul Johnson mode.  Monken’s triple option offense is stronger than Georgia Tech’s this year, and his defense is considerably better.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

This week, you will see many of the bowl projection sites beginning to come to agreement on the top bowl games.  No doubt, almost every projection will have Alabama in the Cotton Bowl against either Oklahoma or Ohio State, while Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the Orange Bowl.

We thought about this for a long time Saturday night as Clemson and Alabama continued to dominate.  It looked so much like the Playoffs could be narrowed to two teams.  However, we thought about something.  Georgia is not going to lay over and die for the Crimson Tide to roll over.  The Bulldogs have a bad taste in their mouth from last year, where they could smell the National Championship Trophy in the second half of the title game, before some freshman named Tua came off the bench in the second half and looked like a combination of Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

We have noticed the teams that have given Alabama the most trouble through the Nick Saban years.  These teams have physical defenses and offenses with dual-threat quarterbacks that can act as another running back while still passing like stars.  Think about Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, or DeShaun Watson.  Even Chad Kelly had legs and could take off and run.  These are the teams that gave the Crimson Tide the most trouble in the last decade.

In the last few weeks, Alabama’s defense has been exposed by this read and react style of offense.  The Citadel’s triple option basically embarrassed Alabama in the first half.  Auburn’s spread option offense did some damage, but Jarrett Stidham does not have the legs to motor on the keeper like the QBs that have outscored Alabama to victory.

Here’s the thing.  Just like Alabama last year, Georgia has their not-so-secret weapon sitting on the bench waiting to be this year’s Tua Tagovailoa.  Freshman sensation Justin Fields possesses the same skills as Newton, Manziel, and Watson.  He has the potential to lead Georgia to an upset victory and totally throw the FBS Playoffs into disarray.

What if Georgia beat Alabama?  Assuming Clemson easily dismisses Pittsburgh, then Clemson would be number one, Georgia and Notre Dame would be number two and three in either order, and Alabama would fall to number four.  Ohio State and Oklahoma would be left out.  Forget Central Florida.  Even if Bama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State, and Texas beats Oklahoma, a Georgia team at 11-2 would get into the playoffs before UCF.

If Georgia were to upset Alabama, then four SEC teams would most likely make the NY6 bowls.  The Bulldogs and Tide would make the playoffs.  Florida would most likely make the Peach Bowl, and LSU would probably edge out Penn State and others for the Sugar Bowl.

There are 81 bowl eligible teams as of today.  Virginia Tech is a win over Marshall this weekend from becoming bowl eligible and making it  82.  Liberty can get to 6-6 with a win over Norfolk State, but they have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility as a transition team to FBS once 78 teams became bowl eligible.

If you are a fan of a Mountain West, Mid-American, or Sun Belt Conference team that is 6-6 today, you better cheer hard for Marshall to knock off Virginia Tech.  There are already three teams too many for the bowls, and if the Hokies win, they will jump over any of the Group of 5 teams hoping to land in a bowl.  Teams like Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Wyoming, and Louisiana-Monroe are holding out for a miracle.  At most one of these teams will make it to a bowl, and if Virginia Tech wins this weekend, all four are likely to have empty envelopes.  Eastern Michigan could still top Western Michigan, but the Broncos have a larger fan base than the Eagles.

What you see below is our look at the bowls should Georgia beat Alabama.  You can look at all the others on the Internet to see what it would look like if the status quo remains, but we believe you will want to read this alternative look.

 

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Louisiana Tech
Cure AAC SBC Memphis Troy
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC At-Large Tulane [Army]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] UAB
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Wake Forest]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston TCU
Dollar General MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tennessee Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Western Michigan] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Purdue
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor [San Diego St.]
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [BYU]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Georgia Tech Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Michigan Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Vanderbilt
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Central Florida Washington St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Notre Dame Georgia
Orange Clemson Alabama
Championship Game Georgia Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

November 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Syracuse Louisville 10.5 Syracuse
Texas A&M Ole Miss 1.5 Texas A&M
Kansas St. Kansas 22 Kansas

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
West Virginia TCU 1.5 WVU
Eastern Michigan Akron 3 EMU
Duke North Carolina Pk Duke

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arizona St. UCLA 2.5 Arizona St.
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 9.5 Oklahoma
Purdue Minnesota 2.5 Purdue

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulane East Carolina 3.5 Tulane
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 10 Florida Atlantic
Georgia Auburn 24.5 Auburn

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cinciannati East Carolina 2.5 Cincinnati
Texas Tech Texas 8.5 Texas
UAB Southern Miss. 2.5 UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 4 NC St.
Florida South Carolina 20 S. Car.
BYU Massachusetts 27 UMass
Troy Georgia Southern 14.5 Ga. Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Kentucky 7 Kentucky
Colorado Washington St. 7 Washington St.
Louisiana Georgia St. 1 Louisiana
South Alabama UL-Monroe 7.5 UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win Must Lose
Ohio U Miami (O)
Northern Illinois Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Florida
Kansas Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Chicago 6.5 Chicago
Kansas City Arizona 3.5 Kansas City
Tennessee New England 6.5 New England
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10 Indianapolis

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Miami Green Bay 3 Green Bay
Seattle L.A. Rams 3 L.A. Rams
Dallas Philadelphia 6.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Cincinnati New Orleans 41 Over
Cleveland Atlanta 37.5 Over
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 24 Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Kent St. 22.1 23.1 23.3

 

Wednesday November 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Ohio U -3.7 -3.3 -2.3
Northern Illinois Toledo 0.2 -0.1 0.5

 

Thursday November 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 11.7 13.2 13.5

 

Friday November 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse Louisville 22.9 22.1 23.2
Boise St. Fresno St. -2.0 -2.3 -2.9

 

Saturday November 10
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Temple 1.8 2.5 1.5
Rutgers Michigan -40.1 -39.9 -42.5
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
Boston College Clemson -19.6 -19.4 -20.6
Texas A&M Ole Miss 13.3 12.4 13.2
Tennessee Kentucky -13.0 -11.2 -13.3
Massachusetts BYU -16.5 -15.3 -16.5
Virginia Liberty 26.1 26.9 25.1
Georgia Southern Troy 1.2 1.6 0.3
Iowa St. Baylor 15.8 16.1 16.0
Central Florida Navy 30.0 28.3 30.8
West Virginia TCU 10.6 11.0 11.6
Georgia Tech Miami (Fla.) 4.3 5.0 5.0
Kansas St. Kansas 7.3 7.4 8.1
Eastern Michigan Akron 7.4 7.7 7.8
Indiana Maryland -1.4 -1.1 -0.7
Connecticut SMU -18.9 -18.4 -19.5
Duke North Carolina 13.9 12.9 13.7
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 16.1 16.7 16.7
Iowa Northwestern 9.0 9.0 8.9
Cincinnati South Florida 12.9 13.2 13.9
Coastal Carolina Arkansas St. -6.5 -5.4 -7.2
Tulane East Carolina 15.3 16.1 15.9
Utah Oregon 9.7 8.1 9.5
Colorado Washington St. -9.1 -7.5 -8.2
Marshall Charlotte 18.1 18.4 18.4
Old Dominion North Texas -15.6 -14.6 -16.5
Central Michigan Bowling Green 8.0 10.0 8.5
Nevada Colorado St. 12.8 12.2 13.3
Stanford Oregon St. 32.1 31.9 33.6
UTEP Middle Tennessee -17.5 -16.1 -18.8
Georgia Auburn 15.9 14.6 15.6
Penn St. Wisconsin 8.8 8.8 9.5
Alabama Mississippi St. 24.1 24.3 24.7
Air Force New Mexico 14.2 13.7 14.9
Missouri Vanderbilt 19.1 17.4 20.0
Nebraska Illinois 12.8 12.0 12.8
Minnesota Purdue -14.2 -13.9 -14.7
Memphis Tulsa 12.6 14.5 13.2
Florida South Carolina 3.1 2.4 4.3
USC California 3.9 4.5 3.1
Texas Tech Texas 1.2 1.5 1.0
Arkansas LSU -16.4 -18.2 -18.7
Utah St. San Jose St. 35.3 35.7 38.0
Texas St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -20.3 -22.5
Louisiana Georgia St. 9.0 9.2 10.1
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 20.9 19.3 20.9
South Alabama UL-Monroe -7.7 -6.4 -8.0
Louisiana Tech Rice 28.6 27.9 30.9
UTSA Florida Int’l. -10.3 -9.9 -10.4
Notre Dame Florida St. 21.8 20.2 21.6
UAB Southern Miss. 17.2 16.8 17.8
Michigan St. Ohio St. -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Arizona St. UCLA 16.3 15.5 18.6
San Diego St. UNLV 22.7 21.7 23.1

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0
4 Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4
5 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
6 Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7
7 Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0
8 Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2
11 Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8
12 Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
14 Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9
15 Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6
17 Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3
18 West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0
19 Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6
20 Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4
21 Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2
22 Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0
23 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
24 Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5
26 Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2
27 Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5
28 Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3
29 Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1
30 Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0
31 N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9
32 Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6
33 Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3
34 Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1
35 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
36 Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0
37 Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8
38 Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5
39 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
40 Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2
41 Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0
42 Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0
43 Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2
44 U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7
45 T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9
46 California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9
47 Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1
49 Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
50 Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6
51 Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4
54 Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0
55 Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8
56 Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2
57 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
58 Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
59 Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8
60 Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4
61 Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2
62 Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1
64 BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6
65 U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6
66 Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5
67 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4
68 Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7
69 N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
71 N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5
72 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
74 Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5
75 Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5
76 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
77 U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0
78 Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9
79 Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5
80 Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4
81 Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1
82 Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9
83 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
84 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4
85 SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0
86 Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6
87 Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6
88 Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5
89 Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3
90 Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6
91 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
92 Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9
93 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
94 Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2
95 Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0
96 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5
98 Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4
99 Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0
100 Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8
101 Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9
102 Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7
103 Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8
104 UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6
105 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
106 Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5
107 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
108 Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1
109 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
110 East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2
111 Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7
112 Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5
113 Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0
114 Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5
115 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
116 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
117 Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2
118 Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1
119 U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0
120 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
121 San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7
122 Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8
123 Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3
124 U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3
125 South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7
126 Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8
127 U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0
128 Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6
129 N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6
130 Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6 5-0 8-0
Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8 4-1 5-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 4-1 8-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-2 7-2
East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-5 2-6
Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9 2-3 5-4
Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8 4-1 7-2
Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4 3-2 4-5
SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0 3-2 4-5
Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0 1-4 2-7
Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9 1-4 2-7
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 6-0 9-0
Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8 4-1 7-2
N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9 2-2 6-2
Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0 4-2 7-2
Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 2-5 4-5
Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1 1-4 4-5
Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2 0-6 2-7
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 3-3 5-4
Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1 2-3 5-4
Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6 2-3 6-3
Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 3-2 4-4
Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7 4-2 6-3
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1 4-1 5-4
N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6 1-5 1-7
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7 5-1 8-1
West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0 5-1 7-1
Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2 4-2 5-3
Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3 4-2 6-3
Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5 3-3 5-4
Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2 2-4 5-4
T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9 2-4 4-5
Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2 1-5 3-6
Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2 3-3 5-4
Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1 1-5 3-6
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0 6-0 8-1
Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0 5-1 8-1
Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7 5-2 6-3
Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 3-3 6-3
Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 3-3 5-4
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7 0-6 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9 3-3 6-3
Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2 4-2 5-4
Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1 4-2 6-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-4
Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4 1-5 2-7
Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9 1-5 4-5
Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9 2-4 4-5
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 2-3 4-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 3-2 5-3
Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5 5-1 6-3
Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0 4-1 6-3
Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-5 1-8
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-2 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6 6-0 8-1
N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5 3-2 7-2
Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6 4-1 6-3
Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8 2-3 3-5
U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3 2-3 3-6
U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0 1-4 1-8
Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0 0-6 1-9
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 9-0
Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6 x 7-2
BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6 x 4-5
Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7 x 4-4
Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5 4-1 6-3
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4 5-0 8-1
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4 3-2 3-6
Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5 2-3 4-4
Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5 1-4 2-7
Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7 3-2 5-4
Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9 5-0 6-3
Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6 3-3 5-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1 0-6 1-9
Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0 5-0 8-1
Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0 4-1 7-2
Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5 1-4 3-6
Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-4 3-6
Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4 5-0 8-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 4-1 7-2
Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3 3-2 5-4
Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1 3-3 6-5
U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0 0-5 2-7
San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7 1-4 1-8
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 3-3 5-4
Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5 5-1 8-1
Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2 3-3 6-3
California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9 2-4 5-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-5 2-7
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3 4-3 6-3
Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8 3-3 5-4
U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7 4-3 5-4
Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4 4-3 5-5
Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2 2-4 5-4
U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0 2-4 2-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4 6-1 8-1
Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8 1-4 5-4
Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0 5-2 7-2
Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3 4-3 6-3
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 4-3 5-3
Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5 1-4 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 6-0 9-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-3 6-3
L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2 4-2 7-2
Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6 3-3 6-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5 3-3 5-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-4 5-4
Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 4-1 6-2
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 5-0 7-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7 4-1 7-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-3 5-4
Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3 1-4 2-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8 2-3 5-4
UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6 3-2 5-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-3 4-5
South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7 1-4 2-7
Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8 1-4 3-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Fresno St.
  3. Utah St.
  4. Cincinnati
  5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Houston [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 SMU [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Buffalo]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Boston College Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. UL-Monroe
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Central Florida Kentucky
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large North Carolina St. West Virginia
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Iowa St. Kansas 4 Iowa St.
Air Force Army 3 Army
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3.5 Eastern Michigan
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wyoming San Jose St. 3.5 Wyoming
Illinois Minnesota 0.5 Minnesota
Cincinnati Navy 3 Cincinnati
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Boston College Virginia Tech 12 Virginia Tech
Michigan Penn St. 20.5 Penn St.
Missouri Florida 4 Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston SMU 3.5 Houston
Northwestern Notre Dame 1 Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 7 Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Northern Illinois Akron 19.5 Akron
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 0.5 Middle Tennessee
Kentucky Georgia 4 Georgia
Rice UTEP 14 UTEP

 

Money Line Parlays
3 Teams @ +172
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Kentucky
Notre Dame Northwestern
3 Teams @ +125
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Missouri
Minnesota Illinois
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky
4 Teams @+180
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Wake Forest
Army Air Force
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan
Wyoming San Jose St.
2 Teams @+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win Must Lose
Texas A&M Auburn
Arizona St. Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Oakland 13 Oakland
Chicago Buffalo Pk Chicago
Tampa Bay Carolina 3.5 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Kansas City 1.5 Kansas City
Washington Atlanta 12 Atlanta
Green Bay New England 4.5 New England

 

13-point Teasers 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Detroit 18 Detroit
Baltimore Pittsburgh 16 Pittsburgh
Seattle L.A. Chargers 15 L.A. Chargers
Houston Denver 9 Denver
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
San Francisco Oakland 32.5 Over
Minnesota Detroit 35.5 Over
Cleveland Kansas City 38.5 Over
Miami N.Y. Jets 32 Over
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Baltimore Pittsburgh 57.5 Under
Washington Atlanta 33.5 Over
Seattle L.A. Chargers 35 Over
New England Green Bay 66.5 Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Miami (O) 8.1 8.5 7.0
Bowling Green Kent St. 2.5 1.6 2.6

 

Wednesday October 31
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Toledo Ball St. 20.1 19.3 20.4

 

Thursday November 1
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Ohio U -2.0 -1.6 -1.9
Akron Northern Illinois -2.7 -2.4 -2.7
Central Florida Temple 15.0 15.2 14.6

 

Friday November 2
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Pittsburgh 7.3 8.3 7.2
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 16.7 15.3 17.2
Arizona Colorado 4.9 2.6 4.4

 

Saturday November 3
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU Houston -9.4 -10.6 -10.8
Purdue Iowa -0.3 0.1 -0.2
Georgia St. Texas St. 8.9 8.0 9.2
Wake Forest Syracuse -4.1 -4.7 -5.4
Kentucky Georgia -10.3 -8.5 -11.3
Cincinnati Navy 9.7 9.2 10.5
Ohio St. Nebraska 25.6 24.9 27.1
North Carolina Georgia Tech -11.4 -11.3 -11.6
Florida Missouri 1.6 1.3 1.3
Miami (Fla.) Duke 6.7 7.0 6.7
North Carolina St. Florida St. 7.7 8.0 7.8
East Carolina Memphis -15.1 -16.9 -16.5
Virginia Tech Boston College -2.6 -1.3 -2.8
Maryland Michigan St. -8.6 -7.8 -8.9
Texas Tech Oklahoma -9.2 -9.3 -10.7
Texas West Virginia 0.9 0.3 0.9
Wisconsin Rutgers 30.9 29.5 32.0
Northwestern Notre Dame -11.5 -10.6 -10.6
Illinois Minnesota -8.6 -8.2 -9.4
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 13.0 12.1 13.2
Army Air Force 12.3 12.5 12.4
South Florida Tulane 4.7 6.1 4.3
Coastal Carolina Appalachian St. -16.8 -16.1 -17.6
Boise St. BYU 13.1 12.1 12.6
New Mexico San Diego St. -11.5 -10.3 -12.2
Wyoming San Jose St. 19.3 18.4 20.6
Washington St. California 8.6 9.9 8.6
Southern Miss. Marshall -8.5 -8.0 -9.2
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia Southern -7.1 -8.8 -7.6
Arizona St. Utah -6.8 -6.6 -7.8
Oregon UCLA 13.4 13.6 16.3
Washington Stanford 9.8 10.2 10.6
Kansas Iowa St. -12.2 -12.1 -13.9
Auburn Texas A&M 4.6 4.8 6.2
Tennessee Charlotte 24.9 22.8 23.9
Mississippi St. Louisiana Tech 27.6 23.1 27.2
Baylor Oklahoma St. -6.6 -6.7 -6.9
Massachusetts Liberty 1.2 3.8 1.5
TCU Kansas St. 8.4 8.5 7.8
Tulsa Connecticut 17.8 16.6 19.0
Clemson Louisville 47.2 44.7 48.9
Michigan Penn St. 9.1 10.6 9.8
Ole Miss South Carolina -5.0 -4.4 -4.1
Rice UTEP -3.6 -4.0 -4.8
Troy Louisiana 11.7 10.8 11.9
Arkansas St. South Alabama 13.3 12.9 14.3
UAB UTSA 20.7 19.2 20.8
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic -1.3 1.7 -0.8
LSU Alabama -17.5 -15.8 -17.5
UNLV Fresno St. -28.7 -26.7 -28.9
Hawaii Utah St. -24.1 -23.7 -26.5
Oregon St. USC -20.4 -21.1 -21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
New Mexico St. Alcorn St. 10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3
2 Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1
3 Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8
4 Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7
5 Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0
6 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
7 Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9
8 Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8
9 L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4
10 Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8
11 Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6
12 Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9
13 Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5
14 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
15 Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6
17 Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9
18 Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8
19 West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8
20 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
21 Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1
22 Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9
23 Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9
24 Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4
26 Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1
27 Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0
28 Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9
29 Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7
30 Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5
31 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
32 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
33 N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7
34 Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3
35 Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2
36 Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1
37 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
38 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6
39 Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6
40 Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6
41 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5
42 Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8
43 U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0
44 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9
45 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
46 T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2
47 California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7
48 Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9
49 Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1
50 Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0
51 Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0
54 Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0
55 Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7
56 Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7
57 Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4
58 Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1
59 Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9
60 Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9
61 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3
62 Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3
63 Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1
64 Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0
65 BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8
66 Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8
67 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
68 N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5
69 N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2
70 Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2
71 Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1
72 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
73 Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4
74 Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2
75 U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4
76 Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2
77 Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0
78 U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8
79 Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7
80 Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0
81 Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7
82 South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5
83 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4
84 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1
85 Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8
86 Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3
88 Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2
89 Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0
90 Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5
91 Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4
92 Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1
93 Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4
94 SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3
95 Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2
96 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
97 Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0
98 Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4
99 Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8
100 Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0
101 Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5
102 Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3
103 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
104 Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1
105 Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2
106 Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1
107 Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0
108 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
109 East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2
110 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6
111 U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8
112 Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5
113 Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5
114 Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5
115 Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2
116 Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2
117 W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4
118 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
119 Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4
120 Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2
121 Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1
122 U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1
123 Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8
124 San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4
125 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0
126 Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8
128 Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0
129 N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8
130 Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1 3-1 7-1
South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5 3-1 7-1
East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5 4-0 7-1
Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5 2-2 3-5
Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4 1-3 2-6
SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3 2-2 3-5
Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8 0-4 1-7
AAC Averages 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1 5-0 8-0
Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 6-2
N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7 1-2 5-2
Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6 3-2 6-2
Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9 2-4 4-4
Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4 1-3 4-4
Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1 0-5 2-6
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9 2-3 4-4
Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9 2-2 5-3
Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1 1-3 5-3
Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6 3-1 4-3
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 4-1 6-2
Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0 3-1 4-4
N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5 1-4 1-6
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0 4-1 7-1
West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8 4-1 6-1
Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9 3-2 4-3
Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5 4-1 6-2
Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2 3-2 5-3
Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6 2-3 5-3
T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2 1-4 3-5
Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9 1-4 3-5
Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8 2-3 4-4
Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2 1-4 3-5
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8 3-2 6-2
Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5 4-2 5-3
Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0 3-2 5-3
Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-2 6-2
Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1 3-2 4-4
Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0 3-2 5-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-3
Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3 1-4 4-4
Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0 1-4 2-6
Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0 1-4 3-5
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7 3-1 5-2
Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3 4-1 5-3
Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2 1-3 3-5
Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0 4-0 6-2
Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4 0-4 1-7
Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8 3-2 4-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2 3-2 7-2
U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8 5-0 7-1
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1 4-1 6-2
Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1 2-2 3-4
U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8 0-4 0-8
Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2 0-5 1-8
CUSA Averages 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 8-0
Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1 x 6-2
BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8 x 4-4
Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 3-6
N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8 x 2-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3 4-0 7-1
Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0 3-1 5-3
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4 3-1 3-5
Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4 2-2 4-3
Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4 2-2 4-4
Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7 2-3 4-5
Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0 4-0 5-3
Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2 4-1 6-3
Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0 0-5 1-8
Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5 2-3 3-6
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3 4-0 7-1
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5 4-1 6-2
Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7 1-4 3-5
Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8 1-4 3-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-3 3-5
Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 4-0 7-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 3-1 6-2
Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0 3-2 5-4
U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8 0-4 2-6
Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5 3-2 6-4
San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4 1-3 1-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8 4-2 6-3
Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6 3-2 5-3
Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7 4-1 7-1
Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8 2-3 5-3
California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7 2-3 5-3
Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1 1-4 2-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9 4-2 6-2
U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0 3-3 4-4
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9 2-3 4-4
Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0 3-3 4-5
Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1 2-3 5-3
U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4 2-3 2-6
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8 5-1 7-1
Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7 0-4 4-4
Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8 5-1 7-1
Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1 4-2 6-2
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 3-3 4-3
Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1 1-4 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3 5-0 8-0
L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4 4-1 7-1
Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6 2-3 5-3
Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6 2-3 5-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4 3-2 5-3
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-3 5-3
Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4 4-0 7-1
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 4-0 6-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-2 5-3
Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2 1-3 2-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5 1-3 4-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-2 4-4
UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6 2-2 4-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0 1-3 2-6
Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0 0-4 2-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
7 MWC 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
10 CUSA 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Fresno St.
3 Houston
4 Utah St.
5 Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA [California] Utah St.
Cure AAC SBC [Eastern Michigan] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Coastal Carolina
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC At-Large South Florida [Arizona]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] Middle Tennessee
Bahamas MAC CUSA Northern Illinois Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Western Michigan]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Memphis [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Georgia Tech Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Nevada] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [BYU]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Virginia Tech Tennessee
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Troy
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Georgia
Military AAC ACC Temple Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Purdue Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Fiesta At-large At-large Kentucky Houston
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

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