PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Syracuse	Louisville	10.5	Syracuse
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	1.5	Texas A&M
Kansas St.	Kansas	22	Kansas

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
West Virginia	TCU	1.5	WVU
Eastern Michigan	Akron	3	EMU
Duke	North Carolina	Pk	Duke

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arizona St.	UCLA	2.5	Arizona St.
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	9.5	Oklahoma
Purdue	Minnesota	2.5	Purdue

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulane	East Carolina	3.5	Tulane
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	10	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Auburn	24.5	Auburn

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cinciannati	East Carolina	2.5	Cincinnati
Texas Tech	Texas	8.5	Texas
UAB	Southern Miss.	2.5	UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	4	NC St.
Florida	South Carolina	20	S. Car.
BYU	Massachusetts	27	UMass
Troy	Georgia Southern	14.5	Ga. Southern

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Kentucky	7	Kentucky
Colorado	Washington St.	7	Washington St.
Louisiana	Georgia St.	1	Louisiana
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	7.5	UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win	Must Lose
Ohio U	Miami (O)
Northern Illinois	Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win	Must Lose
South Carolina	Florida
Kansas	Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Chicago	6.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Arizona	3.5	Kansas City
Tennessee	New England	6.5	New England
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10	Indianapolis

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	L.A. Chargers	3	L.A. Chargers
Miami	Green Bay	3	Green Bay
Seattle	L.A. Rams	3	L.A. Rams
Dallas	Philadelphia	6.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	31.5	Over
Cincinnati	New Orleans	41	Over
Cleveland	Atlanta	37.5	Over
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	24	Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Kent St.	22.1	23.1	23.3

 

Wednesday	November 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Ohio U	-3.7	-3.3	-2.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.2	-0.1	0.5

 

Thursday	November 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	11.7	13.2	13.5

 

Friday	November 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	Louisville	22.9	22.1	23.2
Boise St.	Fresno St.	-2.0	-2.3	-2.9

 

Saturday	November 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Temple	1.8	2.5	1.5
Rutgers	Michigan	-40.1	-39.9	-42.5
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-1.4	-0.6	-0.8
Boston College	Clemson	-19.6	-19.4	-20.6
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	13.3	12.4	13.2
Tennessee	Kentucky	-13.0	-11.2	-13.3
Massachusetts	BYU	-16.5	-15.3	-16.5
Virginia	Liberty	26.1	26.9	25.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	1.2	1.6	0.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	15.8	16.1	16.0
Central Florida	Navy	30.0	28.3	30.8
West Virginia	TCU	10.6	11.0	11.6
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	4.3	5.0	5.0
Kansas St.	Kansas	7.3	7.4	8.1
Eastern Michigan	Akron	7.4	7.7	7.8
Indiana	Maryland	-1.4	-1.1	-0.7
Connecticut	SMU	-18.9	-18.4	-19.5
Duke	North Carolina	13.9	12.9	13.7
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	16.1	16.7	16.7
Iowa	Northwestern	9.0	9.0	8.9
Cincinnati	South Florida	12.9	13.2	13.9
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	-6.5	-5.4	-7.2
Tulane	East Carolina	15.3	16.1	15.9
Utah	Oregon	9.7	8.1	9.5
Colorado	Washington St.	-9.1	-7.5	-8.2
Marshall	Charlotte	18.1	18.4	18.4
Old Dominion	North Texas	-15.6	-14.6	-16.5
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	8.0	10.0	8.5
Nevada	Colorado St.	12.8	12.2	13.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	32.1	31.9	33.6
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-17.5	-16.1	-18.8
Georgia	Auburn	15.9	14.6	15.6
Penn St.	Wisconsin	8.8	8.8	9.5
Alabama	Mississippi St.	24.1	24.3	24.7
Air Force	New Mexico	14.2	13.7	14.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	19.1	17.4	20.0
Nebraska	Illinois	12.8	12.0	12.8
Minnesota	Purdue	-14.2	-13.9	-14.7
Memphis	Tulsa	12.6	14.5	13.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.1	2.4	4.3
USC	California	3.9	4.5	3.1
Texas Tech	Texas	1.2	1.5	1.0
Arkansas	LSU	-16.4	-18.2	-18.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	35.3	35.7	38.0
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-20.3	-22.5
Louisiana	Georgia St.	9.0	9.2	10.1
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	20.9	19.3	20.9
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	-7.7	-6.4	-8.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	28.6	27.9	30.9
UTSA	Florida Int’l.	-10.3	-9.9	-10.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	21.8	20.2	21.6
UAB	Southern Miss.	17.2	16.8	17.8
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
Arizona St.	UCLA	16.3	15.5	18.6
San Diego St.	UNLV	22.7	21.7	23.1

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0
4	Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4
5	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
6	Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7
7	Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0
8	Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2
11	Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8
12	Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
14	Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9
15	Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6
17	Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3
18	West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0
19	Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6
20	Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4
21	Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2
22	Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0
23	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
24	Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5
26	Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2
27	Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5
28	Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3
29	Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1
30	Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0
31	N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9
32	Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6
33	Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3
34	Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1
35	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
36	Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0
37	Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8
38	Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5
39	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
40	Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2
41	Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0
42	Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0
43	Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2
44	U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7
45	T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9
46	California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9
47	Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1
49	Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
50	Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6
51	Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4
54	Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0
55	Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8
56	Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2
57	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
58	Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
59	Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8
60	Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4
61	Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2
62	Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1
64	BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6
65	U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6
66	Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5
67	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4
68	Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7
69	N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
71	N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5
72	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
74	Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5
75	Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5
76	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
77	U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0
78	Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9
79	Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5
80	Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4
81	Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1
82	Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9
83	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
84	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4
85	SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0
86	Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6
87	Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6
88	Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5
89	Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3
90	Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6
91	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
92	Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9
93	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
94	Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2
95	Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0
96	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5
98	Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4
99	Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0
100	Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8
101	Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9
102	Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7
103	Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8
104	UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6
105	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
106	Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5
107	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
108	Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1
109	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
110	East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2
111	Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7
112	Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5
113	Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0
114	Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5
115	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
116	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
117	Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2
118	Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1
119	U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0
120	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
121	San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7
122	Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8
123	Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3
124	U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3
125	South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7
126	Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8
127	U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0
128	Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6
129	N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6
130	Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6	5-0	8-0
Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8	4-1	5-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	4-1	8-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-2	7-2
East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-5	2-6
Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9	2-3	5-4
Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8	4-1	7-2
Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4	3-2	4-5
SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0	3-2	4-5
Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0	1-4	2-7
Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9	1-4	2-7
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	6-0	9-0
Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8	4-1	7-2
N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9	2-2	6-2
Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0	4-2	7-2
Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7	2-5	4-5
Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1	1-4	4-5
Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2	0-6	2-7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	3-3	5-4
Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1	2-3	5-4
Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6	2-3	6-3
Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0	3-2	4-4
Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7	4-2	6-3
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1	4-1	5-4
N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6	1-5	1-7
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7	5-1	8-1
West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0	5-1	7-1
Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2	4-2	5-3
Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3	4-2	6-3
Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5	3-3	5-4
Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2	2-4	5-4
T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9	2-4	4-5
Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2	1-5	3-6
Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2	3-3	5-4
Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0	6-0	8-1
Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0	5-1	8-1
Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7	5-2	6-3
Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	3-3	6-3
Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	3-3	5-4
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7	0-6	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9	3-3	6-3
Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2	4-2	5-4
Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1	4-2	6-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-4
Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4	1-5	2-7
Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9	1-5	4-5
Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9	2-4	4-5
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	2-3	4-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	3-2	5-3
Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5	5-1	6-3
Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0	4-1	6-3
Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-5	1-8
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-2	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6	6-0	8-1
N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5	3-2	7-2
Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6	4-1	6-3
Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8	2-3	3-5
U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3	2-3	3-6
U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0	1-4	1-8
Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0	0-6	1-9
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	9-0
Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6	x	7-2
BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6	x	4-5
Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7	x	4-4
Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5	4-1	6-3
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4	5-0	8-1
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4	3-2	3-6
Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5	2-3	4-4
Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5	1-4	2-7
Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9	5-0	6-3
Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6	3-3	5-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1	0-6	1-9
Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0	5-0	8-1
Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0	4-1	7-2
Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5	1-4	3-6
Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-4	3-6
Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4	5-0	8-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	4-1	7-2
Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3	3-2	5-4
Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1	3-3	6-5
U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0	0-5	2-7
San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7	1-4	1-8
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	3-3	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5	5-1	8-1
Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2	3-3	6-3
California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9	2-4	5-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-5	2-7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3	4-3	6-3
Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8	3-3	5-4
U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7	4-3	5-4
Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4	4-3	5-5
Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2	2-4	5-4
U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0	2-4	2-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4	6-1	8-1
Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8	1-4	5-4
Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0	5-2	7-2
Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3	4-3	6-3
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	4-3	5-3
Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	6-0	9-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-3	6-3
L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2	4-2	7-2
Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6	3-3	6-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5	3-3	5-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-4	5-4
Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	4-1	6-2
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	5-0	7-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7	4-1	7-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-3	5-4
Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3	1-4	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8	2-3	5-4
UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6	3-2	5-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-3	4-5
South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7	1-4	2-7
Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8	1-4	3-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Fresno St.
3. Utah St.
4. Cincinnati
5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Houston	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	SMU	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Buffalo]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Boston College	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	UL-Monroe
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Kentucky
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	North Carolina St.	West Virginia
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Kansas	4	Iowa St.
Air Force	Army	3	Army
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	3.5	Eastern Michigan
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wyoming	San Jose St.	3.5	Wyoming
Illinois	Minnesota	0.5	Minnesota
Cincinnati	Navy	3	Cincinnati
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Boston College	Virginia Tech	12	Virginia Tech
Michigan	Penn St.	20.5	Penn St.
Missouri	Florida	4	Florida
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	SMU	3.5	Houston
Northwestern	Notre Dame	1	Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	7	Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Northern Illinois	Akron	19.5	Akron
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	0.5	Middle Tennessee
Kentucky	Georgia	4	Georgia
Rice	UTEP	14	UTEP

 

Money Line	Parlays
3 Teams	@ +172
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Kentucky
Notre Dame	Northwestern
3 Teams	@ +125
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida	Missouri
Minnesota	Illinois
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky
4 Teams	@+180
Must Win	Must Lose
Syracuse	Wake Forest
Army	Air Force
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan
Wyoming	San Jose St.
2 Teams	@+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win	Must Lose
Texas A&M	Auburn
Arizona St.	Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	13	Oakland
Chicago	Buffalo	Pk	Chicago
Tampa Bay	Carolina	3.5	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Kansas City	1.5	Kansas City
Washington	Atlanta	12	Atlanta
Green Bay	New England	4.5	New England

 

13-point Teasers	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	18	Detroit
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	16	Pittsburgh
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	15	L.A. Chargers
Houston	Denver	9	Denver
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	32.5	Over
Minnesota	Detroit	35.5	Over
Cleveland	Kansas City	38.5	Over
Miami	N.Y. Jets	32	Over
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	57.5	Under
Washington	Atlanta	33.5	Over
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	35	Over
New England	Green Bay	66.5	Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Miami (O)	8.1	8.5	7.0
Bowling Green	Kent St.	2.5	1.6	2.6

 

Wednesday	October 31
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Ball St.	20.1	19.3	20.4

 

Thursday	November 1
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Ohio U	-2.0	-1.6	-1.9
Akron	Northern Illinois	-2.7	-2.4	-2.7
Central Florida	Temple	15.0	15.2	14.6

 

Friday	November 2
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia	Pittsburgh	7.3	8.3	7.2
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	16.7	15.3	17.2
Arizona	Colorado	4.9	2.6	4.4

 

Saturday	November 3
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	Houston	-9.4	-10.6	-10.8
Purdue	Iowa	-0.3	0.1	-0.2
Georgia St.	Texas St.	8.9	8.0	9.2
Wake Forest	Syracuse	-4.1	-4.7	-5.4
Kentucky	Georgia	-10.3	-8.5	-11.3
Cincinnati	Navy	9.7	9.2	10.5
Ohio St.	Nebraska	25.6	24.9	27.1
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.3	-11.6
Florida	Missouri	1.6	1.3	1.3
Miami (Fla.)	Duke	6.7	7.0	6.7
North Carolina St.	Florida St.	7.7	8.0	7.8
East Carolina	Memphis	-15.1	-16.9	-16.5
Virginia Tech	Boston College	-2.6	-1.3	-2.8
Maryland	Michigan St.	-8.6	-7.8	-8.9
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	-9.2	-9.3	-10.7
Texas	West Virginia	0.9	0.3	0.9
Wisconsin	Rutgers	30.9	29.5	32.0
Northwestern	Notre Dame	-11.5	-10.6	-10.6
Illinois	Minnesota	-8.6	-8.2	-9.4
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	13.0	12.1	13.2
Army	Air Force	12.3	12.5	12.4
South Florida	Tulane	4.7	6.1	4.3
Coastal Carolina	Appalachian St.	-16.8	-16.1	-17.6
Boise St.	BYU	13.1	12.1	12.6
New Mexico	San Diego St.	-11.5	-10.3	-12.2
Wyoming	San Jose St.	19.3	18.4	20.6
Washington St.	California	8.6	9.9	8.6
Southern Miss.	Marshall	-8.5	-8.0	-9.2
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia Southern	-7.1	-8.8	-7.6
Arizona St.	Utah	-6.8	-6.6	-7.8
Oregon	UCLA	13.4	13.6	16.3
Washington	Stanford	9.8	10.2	10.6
Kansas	Iowa St.	-12.2	-12.1	-13.9
Auburn	Texas A&M	4.6	4.8	6.2
Tennessee	Charlotte	24.9	22.8	23.9
Mississippi St.	Louisiana Tech	27.6	23.1	27.2
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	-6.6	-6.7	-6.9
Massachusetts	Liberty	1.2	3.8	1.5
TCU	Kansas St.	8.4	8.5	7.8
Tulsa	Connecticut	17.8	16.6	19.0
Clemson	Louisville	47.2	44.7	48.9
Michigan	Penn St.	9.1	10.6	9.8
Ole Miss	South Carolina	-5.0	-4.4	-4.1
Rice	UTEP	-3.6	-4.0	-4.8
Troy	Louisiana	11.7	10.8	11.9
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	13.3	12.9	14.3
UAB	UTSA	20.7	19.2	20.8
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic	-1.3	1.7	-0.8
LSU	Alabama	-17.5	-15.8	-17.5
UNLV	Fresno St.	-28.7	-26.7	-28.9
Hawaii	Utah St.	-24.1	-23.7	-26.5

Oregon St.

USC

-20.4

-21.1

-21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
New Mexico St.	Alcorn St.	10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3
2	Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1
3	Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8
4	Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7
5	Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0
6	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
7	Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9
8	Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8
9	L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4
10	Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8
11	Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6
12	Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9
13	Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5
14	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
15	Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6
17	Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9
18	Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8
19	West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8
20	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
21	Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1
22	Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9
23	Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9
24	Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4
26	Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1
27	Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0
28	Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9
29	Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7
30	Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5
31	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
32	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
33	N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7
34	Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3
35	Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2
36	Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1
37	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
38	Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6
39	Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6
40	Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6
41	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5
42	Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8
43	U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0
44	Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9
45	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
46	T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2
47	California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7
48	Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9
49	Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1
50	Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0
51	Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0
54	Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0
55	Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7
56	Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7
57	Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4
58	Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1
59	Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9
60	Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9
61	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3
62	Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3
63	Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1
64	Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0
65	BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8
66	Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8
67	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
68	N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5
69	N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2
70	Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2
71	Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1
72	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
73	Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4
74	Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2
75	U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4
76	Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2
77	Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0
78	U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8
79	Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7
80	Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0
81	Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7
82	South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5
83	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4
84	Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1
85	Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8
86	Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7
87	Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3
88	Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2
89	Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0
90	Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5
91	Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4
92	Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1
93	Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4
94	SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3
95	Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2
96	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
97	Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0
98	Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4
99	Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8
100	Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0
101	Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5
102	Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3
103	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
104	Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1
105	Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2
106	Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1
107	Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0
108	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
109	East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2
110	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6
111	U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8
112	Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5
113	Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5
114	Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5
115	Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2
116	Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2
117	W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4
118	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
119	Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4
120	Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2
121	Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1
122	U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1
123	Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8
124	San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4
125	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0
126	Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8
128	Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0
129	N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8
130	Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1	3-1	7-1
South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5	3-1	7-1
East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5	4-0	7-1
Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5	2-2	3-5
Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4	1-3	2-6
SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3	2-2	3-5
Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8	0-4	1-7
AAC Averages	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1	5-0	8-0
Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	6-2
N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7	1-2	5-2
Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6	3-2	6-2
Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9	2-4	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4	1-3	4-4
Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1	0-5	2-6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9	2-3	4-4
Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9	2-2	5-3
Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1	1-3	5-3
Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6	3-1	4-3
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	4-1	6-2
Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0	3-1	4-4
N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5	1-4	1-6
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0	4-1	7-1
West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8	4-1	6-1
Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9	3-2	4-3
Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5	4-1	6-2
Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2	3-2	5-3
Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6	2-3	5-3
T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2	1-4	3-5
Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9	1-4	3-5
Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5	4-2	5-3
Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0	3-2	5-3
Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-2	6-2
Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1	3-2	4-4
Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0	3-2	5-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-3
Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3	1-4	4-4
Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0	1-4	2-6
Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0	1-4	3-5
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7	3-1	5-2
Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3	4-1	5-3
Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2	1-3	3-5
Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0	4-0	6-2
Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4	0-4	1-7
Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8	3-2	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2	3-2	7-2
U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8	5-0	7-1
Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1	4-1	6-2
Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1	2-2	3-4
U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8	0-4	0-8
Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2	0-5	1-8
CUSA Averages	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	8-0
Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1	x	6-2
BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8	x	4-4
Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	3-6
N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8	x	2-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3	4-0	7-1
Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0	3-1	5-3
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4	3-1	3-5
Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4	2-2	4-3
Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4	2-2	4-4
Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7	2-3	4-5
Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0	4-0	5-3
Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2	4-1	6-3
Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0	0-5	1-8
Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5	2-3	3-6
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3	4-0	7-1
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5	4-1	6-2
Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7	1-4	3-5
Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8	1-4	3-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-3	3-5
Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	4-0	7-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	3-1	6-2
Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0	3-2	5-4
U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8	0-4	2-6
Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5	3-2	6-4
San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4	1-3	1-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8	4-2	6-3
Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6	3-2	5-3
Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7	4-1	7-1
Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8	2-3	5-3
California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7	2-3	5-3
Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1	1-4	2-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9	4-2	6-2
U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0	3-3	4-4
Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9	2-3	4-4
Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0	3-3	4-5
Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1	2-3	5-3
U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4	2-3	2-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8	5-1	7-1
Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7	0-4	4-4
Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8	5-1	7-1
Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1	4-2	6-2
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	3-3	4-3
Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1	1-4	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3	5-0	8-0
L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6	2-3	5-3
Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4	3-2	5-3
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	3-1	5-2
Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4	4-0	7-1
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	4-0	6-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-2	5-3
Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2	1-3	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5	1-3	4-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-2	4-4
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0	1-3	2-6
Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0	0-4	2-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
7	MWC	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
10	CUSA	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Fresno St.
3	Houston
4	Utah St.
5	Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	[California]	Utah St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Eastern Michigan]	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Coastal Carolina
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	South Florida	[Arizona]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	Middle Tennessee
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Western Michigan]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Memphis	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Maryland	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Georgia Tech	Minnesota
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Virginia Tech	Tennessee
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Troy
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	Mississippi St.
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Georgia
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Pittsburgh
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Purdue	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	South Carolina
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Kentucky	Houston
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 25-29, 2018

After a successful week of picking, the PiRates are going heavy with 10-point and 13-point teaser selections this week.  Last week, our teasers were 8-2 against the spread, but that still didn’t get us out of the hole we dug the prior couple of weeks.

Leading the way for our Land Sharps last week, Stewed Meat went 6-1 to get back on the plus side of 52.5%, the break even point when selecting games at 11-10 odds.  Once again, all 5 Land Sharps are above the 52.5% level.

When the Sharps each sent in their picks, it looked to us like this is going to be a tough week.  The last week before the Autumn winds of November come into play can be a tough one to call.  It seems like favorites cover better this week than they do in any month in November.  Maybe injury attrition and just plain old bumps and bruises begin to affect the games more, and obviously inclement weather begins to play a part in games.  We actually saw some snow at the Wisconsin-Illinois game last week.  When the temperatures drop into the sub-freezing zone, the ball doesn’t feel the same way it does when it’s 70 degrees.  It becomes harder to throw, catch, kick, or hold onto when being hit by opposing players.

The Land Sharps

1. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 20-13-1 60.6% ROI: 16.8%

Virginia Tech  -2.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Georgia -6.5 vs. Florida

USC -6.5 vs. Arizona St.

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 24-17-0  58.5%  ROI: 12.9%

Arkansas +1.5 vs. Vanderbilt

USC -6.5 vs. Arizona St.

Stanford -3 vs. Washington St.

 

3. Friday Dog 13–Season: 22-16-1  57.9%  ROI: 11.3%

Clemson -16.5 vs. Florida St.

Washington -11.5 vs. California

Oklahoma -24.5 vs. Kansas St.

Notre Dame -23.5 vs. Navy

Colorado -24 vs. Oregon St.

 

4. Dean615–Season: 17-13-1  56.7%  ROI: 8.7%

Notre Dame -23.5 vs. Navy

Iowa +6.5 vs. Penn St.

Boston College +3.5 vs, Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St. -2.5 vs. Purdue

Pittsburgh +3 vs. Duke

Wisconsin -7 vs. Northwestern

Texas A&M +2.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

5. Stewed Meat–25-20-0  55.6%  ROI: 6.7%

Western Michigan -6.5 vs. Toledo

Georgia Southern +8.5 vs. Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina -3.5 vs. Georgia St.

Louisiana +3 vs. Arkansas St.

Florida Int’l. -3.5 vs. Western Kentucky

 

The PiRate Ratings

College 10-point	Teasers	3 Games	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Toledo	Western Michigan	3.5	Western Michigan
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	7.5	Virginia Tech
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	18.5	Georgia Southern
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Vanderbilt	Arkansas	11.5	Arkansas
Duke	Pittsburgh	12.5	Pittsburgh
Utah St.	New Mexico	30.5	New Mexico
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina	Virginia	1	Virginia
Georgia	Florida	17	Florida
Arizona St.	USC	3.5	USC
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Maryland	Illinois	8	Maryland
Washington	California	1.5	Washington
UAB	UTEP	6	UAB
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Penn St.	Iowa	16.5	Iowa
Arkansas St.	Louisiana	13	Louisiana
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	7.5	North Carolina St.
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	12.5	Texas A&M
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	6.5	Florida Int’l.
Arizona	Oregon	0.5	Oregon
College 13-point	Teasers	4 Games	@13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Miami (Fla.)	Boston College	16.5	Boston College
Minnesota	Indiana	10.5	Indiana
Oklahoma St.	Texas	9.5	Texas
San Diego St.	Nevada	16	Nevada
NFL 10-point	Teasers	3 Games	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
N. Y. Jets	Chicago	3	Chicago
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	2	Pittsburgh
N.Y. Giants	Washington	9	Washington
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Kansas City	Denver	Pk	Kansas City
Baltimore	Carolina	12	Carolina
New Orleans	Minnesota	11	Minnesota
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Green Bay	L.A. Rams	1	L.A. Rams
New England	Buffalo	4	New England
Arizona	San Francisco	11	San Francisco
NFL 13-point	Teaser	4 games	@13-10
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
Houston	Miami	31	Over
Kansas City	Denver	41.5	Over
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	63.5	Under
Washington	N.Y. Giants	29	Over

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 9

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Alabama	Troy	-11.2	-10.6	-11.9

 

Thursday	October 25
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Toledo	1.0	1.6	2.2
Ohio U	Ball St.	14.0	13.0	14.9
Georgia Southern	Appalachian St.	-8.3	-8.3	-9.2
Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech	3.9	4.1	4.0
West Virginia	Baylor	12.4	13.2	11.7

 

Friday	October 26
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Miami (Fla.)	1.5	0.3	1.4
Minnesota	Indiana	3.6	3.6	3.3
UCLA	Utah	-13.9	-12.4	-17.0
Colorado St.	Wyoming	-8.0	-7.1	-7.6
Florida Atlantic	Louisiana Tech	5.3	3.7	4.6

 

Saturday	October 27
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Old Dominion	Middle Tennessee	-6.5	-4.5	-7.7
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	-0.5	-1.6	-1.3
Virginia	North Carolina	10.4	11.6	10.3
Akron	Central Michigan	9.6	8.5	9.7
Pittsburgh	Duke	-8.1	-6.9	-8.2
Maryland	Illinois	16.4	15.5	16.5
Louisville	Wake Forest	-3.8	-1.6	-2.4
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-4.3	-3.6	-4.2
Eastern Michigan	Army	-6.0	-5.2	-5.6
Charlotte	Southern Miss.	-4.4	-5.3	-4.5
Kansas	TCU	-10.2	-10.4	-10.7
Connecticut	Massachusetts	-3.1	-4.6	-4.9
Georgia St.	Coastal Carolina	3.0	2.5	3.1
Utah St.	New Mexico	23.4	23.3	24.6
Colorado	Oregon St.	23.7	27.2	26.6
UTEP	UAB	-20.5	-19.9	-21.7
BYU	Northern Illinois	8.2	7.9	9.0
Nevada	San Diego St.	-3.7	-3.7	-4.2
Stanford	Washington St.	7.5	5.9	8.1
USC	Arizona St.	4.8	5.0	4.9
California	Washington	-13.4	-13.9	-15.0
Florida (n)	Georgia	-13.2	-11.7	-13.1
San Jose St.	UNLV	-3.9	-4.5	-5.8
Tulsa	Tulane	-0.4	-1.3	0.6
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	6.9	6.0	7.3
Missouri	Kentucky	5.0	4.5	6.4
South Carolina	Tennessee	16.3	14.7	16.4
Oklahoma St.	Texas	-1.1	-1.6	-0.9
North Texas	Rice	34.8	34.6	37.3
Houston	South Florida	10.0	9.0	10.7
Penn St.	Iowa	7.0	6.2	7.2
Michigan St.	Purdue	5.9	5.0	5.1
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	-6.4	-7.3	-6.2
SMU	Cincinnati	-2.6	-4.6	-3.8
Arkansas	Vanderbilt	2.9	0.2	1.8
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	19.6	19.7	20.8
Louisiana	Arkansas St.	-2.4	-1.6	-2.8
Texas St.	New Mexico St.	1.2	2.2	1.0
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	4.8	4.4	5.6
Air Force	Boise St.	-11.6	-10.4	-11.6
Florida St.	Clemson	-23.9	-22.0	-24.9
Notre Dame	Navy	36.6	31.7	36.0
Arizona	Oregon	-8.6	-10.2	-9.1
Fresno St.	Hawaii	35.5	33.0	37.0

 

FBS vs.	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Nebraska	Bethune-Cookman	36.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

The PiRate Ratings are predictive and not meant to rank teams on what they have done to date.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.6	140.0
2	Clemson	135.5	132.8	136.1	134.8
3	Georgia	128.1	125.0	128.9	127.3
4	Michigan	126.6	125.4	127.2	126.4
5	Notre Dame	124.8	122.0	123.8	123.5
6	Ohio St.	123.2	121.2	123.3	122.6
7	Washington	122.8	120.9	123.9	122.5
8	Oklahoma	121.2	119.9	121.5	120.9
9	Penn St.	121.0	118.4	121.0	120.1
10	L S U	119.8	119.4	121.1	120.1
11	Mississippi St.	118.4	116.1	119.0	117.9
12	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
13	Missouri	116.4	114.9	117.6	116.3
14	Utah	116.3	114.6	117.1	116.0
15	Michigan St.	116.9	114.7	116.2	116.0
16	Miami	116.2	114.8	115.7	115.6
17	Auburn	115.2	114.0	116.8	115.3
18	Wisconsin	115.9	113.4	115.4	114.9
19	Stanford	115.6	113.1	115.8	114.8
20	Florida	114.9	113.3	115.8	114.6
21	Central Florida	114.2	114.4	114.5	114.4
22	Texas A&M	114.5	113.2	114.7	114.1
23	Kentucky	114.4	113.4	114.2	114.0
24	Boston College	114.7	112.1	114.1	113.7
25	Purdue	114.1	112.7	114.1	113.6
26	Texas	113.8	112.4	113.3	113.1
27	Iowa State	113.1	111.5	112.9	112.5
28	N. Carolina St.	112.6	112.1	112.4	112.4
29	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
30	Oregon	112.2	112.0	112.8	112.3
31	Duke	112.9	110.9	112.3	112.1
32	Virginia Tech	112.5	111.5	112.1	112.0
33	West Virginia	112.7	111.7	111.8	112.0
34	S. Carolina	112.5	111.3	112.1	112.0
35	Georgia Tech	111.5	110.4	111.1	111.0
36	Washington St.	111.1	110.2	110.7	110.7
37	Texas Tech	111.3	110.1	110.4	110.6
38	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.8	109.5
39	T C U	110.3	109.1	108.9	109.4
40	Oklahoma St.	109.7	107.8	109.4	108.9
41	U S C	109.5	108.1	109.1	108.9
42	Northwestern	109.1	107.4	108.7	108.4
43	Utah St.	107.6	108.8	108.8	108.4
44	Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.1	108.3
45	Florida St.	108.6	107.8	108.2	108.2
46	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
47	Arizona St.	107.7	106.2	107.1	107.0
48	California	106.4	104.0	105.9	105.4
49	Colorado	104.3	105.3	105.4	105.0
50	Army	103.9	104.6	104.1	104.2
51	Kansas St.	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8
52	Maryland	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8
53	Houston	103.2	104.0	103.7	103.6
54	Ole Miss	103.3	102.8	103.6	103.2
55	Baylor	103.3	101.5	103.0	102.6
56	Temple	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4
57	Memphis	100.8	102.3	101.6	101.6
58	Appalachian St.	100.4	102.2	102.0	101.5
59	Pittsburgh	101.7	101.0	101.1	101.3
60	Vanderbilt	101.0	101.2	101.1	101.1
61	Wake Forest	102.3	100.1	100.1	100.8
62	BYU	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.7
63	San Diego St.	100.0	100.1	100.6	100.2
64	N. Texas	99.1	101.5	99.9	100.1
65	Arizona	100.6	98.9	100.7	100.0
66	Buffalo	99.0	101.0	100.1	100.0
67	Minnesota	100.5	99.4	100.0	100.0
68	N. Carolina	100.2	99.3	99.8	99.8
69	Arkansas	101.0	98.4	99.9	99.8
70	Nebraska	100.6	99.3	99.2	99.7
71	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
72	Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.7	99.2
73	Cincinnati	98.4	100.0	98.8	99.0
74	U C L A	99.5	99.2	97.1	98.6
75	U A B	95.7	98.3	96.6	96.9
76	South Florida	96.2	98.0	96.0	96.7
77	Marshall	95.1	97.7	96.2	96.4
78	Kansas	97.1	95.6	95.2	96.0
79	Toledo	95.5	96.7	95.3	95.8
80	Eastern Michigan	94.9	96.4	95.5	95.6
81	Florida Atlantic	95.2	96.0	95.6	95.6
82	Northern Illinois	95.2	95.9	95.0	95.4
83	Air Force	95.1	95.7	95.2	95.3
84	Louisville	95.5	95.5	94.7	95.2
85	Miami (O)	93.8	95.5	96.1	95.1
86	Ohio U	94.1	95.3	94.8	94.7
87	Western Michigan	93.5	95.2	94.5	94.4
88	Wyoming	94.5	94.5	94.1	94.3
89	Louisiana Tech	92.9	95.3	94.0	94.0
90	Nevada	93.3	93.3	93.4	93.3
91	Tulane	93.1	93.4	92.7	93.1
92	SMU	92.8	92.3	92.0	92.4
93	Middle Tennessee	91.3	92.7	92.2	92.1
94	Navy	91.2	93.3	90.7	91.8
95	Troy	90.8	92.1	92.1	91.7
96	Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.2	89.8	90.8
97	Illinois	91.3	90.7	90.2	90.7
98	Akron	90.1	91.3	90.3	90.6
99	Tulsa	90.3	89.6	90.8	90.2
100	Georgia Southern	89.1	90.9	89.8	89.9
101	Arkansas St.	87.0	88.4	88.5	88.0
102	New Mexico	87.2	88.5	87.1	87.6
103	Southern Miss.	84.4	87.6	85.0	85.7
104	Rutgers	85.9	84.8	84.2	85.0
105	Colorado St.	84.5	85.3	84.4	84.7
106	U N L V	83.4	84.8	83.7	84.0
107	Central Michigan	83.0	85.3	83.2	83.8
108	Ball St.	83.1	85.3	82.9	83.8
109	Old Dominion	82.3	85.7	82.0	83.4
110	Louisiana	82.1	84.3	83.3	83.2
111	East Carolina	83.2	82.9	82.6	82.9
112	UL-Monroe	82.0	82.3	82.4	82.3
113	Oregon St.	83.6	81.1	81.7	82.1
114	W. Kentucky	80.4	83.4	81.1	81.6
115	Liberty	81.4	80.6	81.6	81.2
116	Hawaii	81.0	82.7	79.9	81.2
117	Massachusetts	80.3	82.2	81.0	81.2
118	Georgia St.	78.9	80.8	79.5	79.7
119	Coastal Carolina	78.3	80.8	78.9	79.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.9	78.6	79.1
121	Bowling Green	78.7	79.0	78.7	78.8
122	U T S A	77.2	81.2	77.8	78.8
123	Charlotte	77.5	79.9	78.0	78.5
124	South Alabama	76.6	78.5	77.2	77.4
125	San Jose St.	77.0	77.8	75.4	76.7
126	Connecticut	75.2	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.7	75.9	72.5	73.7
128	N. Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5
129	Texas State	71.6	74.4	71.5	72.5
130	Rice	66.2	68.8	64.6	66.6

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.2	114.4	114.5	114.4	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.4	100.0	98.8	99.0	2-1	6-1
South Florida	96.2	98.0	96.0	96.7	3-0	7-0
East Carolina	83.2	82.9	82.6	82.9	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.2	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	103.2	104.0	103.7	103.6	3-0	6-1
Memphis	100.8	102.3	101.6	101.6	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.1	93.4	92.7	93.1	1-2	2-5
SMU	92.8	92.3	92.0	92.4	2-1	3-4
Navy	91.2	93.3	90.7	91.8	1-3	2-5
Tulsa	90.3	89.6	90.8	90.2	0-3	1-6
AAC Averages	95.1	95.7	95.0	95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.5	132.8	136.1	134.8	4-0	7-0
Boston College	114.7	112.1	114.1	113.7	2-1	5-2
N. Carolina St.	112.6	112.1	112.4	112.4	1-1	5-1
Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.1	108.3	2-2	5-2
Florida St.	108.6	107.8	108.2	108.2	2-3	4-3
Wake Forest	102.3	100.1	100.1	100.8	0-3	3-4
Louisville	95.5	95.5	94.7	95.2	0-4	2-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	116.2	114.8	115.7	115.6	2-1	5-2
Duke	112.9	110.9	112.3	112.1	1-2	5-2
Virginia Tech	112.5	111.5	112.1	112.0	3-0	4-2
Georgia Tech	111.5	110.4	111.1	111.0	1-3	3-4
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	3-1	5-2
Pittsburgh	101.7	101.0	101.1	101.3	2-1	3-4
N. Carolina	100.2	99.3	99.8	99.8	1-3	1-5
ACC Averages	110.1	108.9	109.5	109.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.2	119.9	121.5	120.9	3-1	6-1
Texas	113.8	112.4	113.3	113.1	4-0	6-1
Iowa State	113.1	111.5	112.9	112.5	2-2	3-3
West Virginia	112.7	111.7	111.8	112.0	3-1	5-1
Texas Tech	111.3	110.1	110.4	110.6	3-1	5-2
T C U	110.3	109.1	108.9	109.4	1-3	3-4
Oklahoma St.	109.7	107.8	109.4	108.9	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8	1-3	3-4
Baylor	103.3	101.5	103.0	102.6	2-2	4-3
Kansas	97.1	95.6	95.2	96.0	0-4	2-5
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.6	125.4	127.2	126.4	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.2	121.2	123.3	122.6	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	121.0	118.4	121.0	120.1	2-2	5-2
Michigan St.	116.9	114.7	116.2	116.0	3-2	4-3
Maryland	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8	2-2	4-3
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-4	4-4
Rutgers	85.9	84.8	84.2	85.0	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-1	6-1
Wisconsin	115.9	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	5-2
Purdue	114.1	112.7	114.1	113.6	3-1	4-3
Northwestern	109.1	107.4	108.7	108.4	4-1	4-3
Minnesota	100.5	99.4	100.0	100.0	0-4	3-4
Nebraska	100.6	99.3	99.2	99.7	1-4	1-6
Illinois	91.3	90.7	90.2	90.7	1-3	3-4
Big Ten Averages	109.0	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.1	97.7	96.2	96.4	3-1	5-2
Florida Atlantic	95.2	96.0	95.6	95.6	1-2	3-4
Middle Tennessee	91.3	92.7	92.2	92.1	3-1	4-3
Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.2	89.8	90.8	3-0	5-2
Old Dominion	82.3	85.7	82.0	83.4	1-4	2-6
W. Kentucky	80.4	83.4	81.1	81.6	0-3	1-6
Charlotte	77.5	79.9	78.0	78.5	2-2	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.1	101.5	99.9	100.1	2-2	6-2
U A B	95.7	98.3	96.6	96.9	4-0	6-1
Louisiana Tech	92.9	95.3	94.0	94.0	3-1	5-2
Southern Miss.	84.4	87.6	85.0	85.7	2-1	3-3
U T S A	77.2	81.2	77.8	78.8	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.7	75.9	72.5	73.7	0-3	0-7
Rice	66.2	68.8	64.6	66.6	0-4	1-7
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.8	122.0	123.8	123.5	x	7-0
Army	103.9	104.6	104.1	104.2	x	5-2
BYU	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.7	x	4-3
Liberty	81.4	80.6	81.6	81.2	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.3	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	2-6
N. Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5	x	2-6
Indep. Averages	93.9	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.0	101.0	100.1	100.0	4-0	7-1
Miami (O)	93.8	95.5	96.1	95.1	3-1	3-5
Ohio U	94.1	95.3	94.8	94.7	2-1	4-3
Akron	90.1	91.3	90.3	90.6	1-2	3-3
Kent St.	78.7	79.9	78.6	79.1	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	78.7	79.0	78.7	78.8	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	95.5	96.7	95.3	95.8	1-2	3-4
Eastern Michigan	94.9	96.4	95.5	95.6	2-3	4-4
Northern Illinois	95.2	95.9	95.0	95.4	4-0	4-3
Western Michigan	93.5	95.2	94.5	94.4	4-0	6-2
Central Michigan	83.0	85.3	83.2	83.8	0-4	1-7
Ball St.	83.1	85.3	82.9	83.8	2-2	3-5
MAC Averages	90.0	91.4	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.8	109.5	3-1	5-2
Utah St.	107.6	108.8	108.8	108.4	3-0	6-1
Air Force	95.1	95.7	95.2	95.3	1-3	3-4
Wyoming	94.5	94.5	94.1	94.3	0-4	2-6
New Mexico	87.2	88.5	87.1	87.6	1-2	3-4
Colorado St.	84.5	85.3	84.4	84.7	2-2	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	3-0	6-1
San Diego St.	100.0	100.1	100.6	100.2	3-0	6-1
Nevada	93.3	93.3	93.4	93.3	2-2	4-4
U N L V	83.4	84.8	83.7	84.0	0-3	2-5
Hawaii	81.0	82.7	79.9	81.2	3-1	6-3
San Jose St.	77.0	77.8	75.4	76.7	0-3	0-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.8	120.9	123.9	122.5	4-1	6-2
Stanford	115.6	113.1	115.8	114.8	3-1	5-2
Oregon	112.2	112.0	112.8	112.3	2-2	5-2
Washington St.	111.1	110.2	110.7	110.7	3-1	6-1
California	106.4	104.0	105.9	105.4	1-3	4-3
Oregon St.	83.6	81.1	81.7	82.1	0-4	1-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.3	114.6	117.1	116.0	3-2	5-2
U S C	109.5	108.1	109.1	108.9	3-2	4-3
Arizona St.	107.7	106.2	107.1	107.0	1-3	3-4
Colorado	104.3	105.3	105.4	105.0	2-2	5-2
Arizona	100.6	98.9	100.7	100.0	2-3	3-5
U C L A	99.5	99.2	97.1	98.6	2-2	2-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.1	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.1	125.0	128.9	127.3	4-1	6-1
Missouri	116.4	114.9	117.6	116.3	0-3	4-3
Florida	114.9	113.3	115.8	114.6	4-1	6-1
Kentucky	114.4	113.4	114.2	114.0	4-1	6-1
S. Carolina	112.5	111.3	112.1	112.0	2-3	3-3
Vanderbilt	101.0	101.2	101.1	101.1	0-4	3-5
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.7	99.2	1-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.6	140.0	5-0	8-0
L S U	119.8	119.4	121.1	120.1	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	118.4	116.1	119.0	117.9	1-3	4-3
Auburn	115.2	114.0	116.8	115.3	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	114.5	113.2	114.7	114.1	3-1	5-2
Ole Miss	103.3	102.8	103.6	103.2	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	101.0	98.4	99.9	99.8	0-4	2-6
SEC Averages	114.2	112.9	114.6	113.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	100.4	102.2	102.0	101.5	3-0	5-1
Troy	90.8	92.1	92.1	91.7	3-0	5-2
Georgia Southern	89.1	90.9	89.8	89.9	3-0	6-1
Georgia St.	78.9	80.8	79.5	79.7	1-2	2-5
Coastal Carolina	78.3	80.8	78.9	79.3	1-2	4-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.0	88.4	88.5	88.0	1-2	4-3
Louisiana	82.1	84.3	83.3	83.2	1-2	3-4
UL-Monroe	82.0	82.3	82.4	82.3	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.6	78.5	77.2	77.4	1-2	2-5
Texas State	71.6	74.4	71.5	72.5	0-4	1-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.7	85.5	84.5	84.6

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.2	112.9	114.6	113.9
2	ACC	110.1	108.9	109.5	109.5
3	B12	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.0	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.5	106.1	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	95.1	95.7	95.0	95.3
7	IND	93.9	94.2	94.1	94.1
8	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
9	MAC	90.0	91.4	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.7	85.5	84.5	84.6

Top 5 Group of 5

1	Central Florida
2	South Florida
3	Fresno St.
4	San Diego St.
5	Houston

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Utah St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	UL-Monroe
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	[Middle Tennessee]	[Coastal Carolina]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Colorado]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	North Texas	[BYU]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Toledo]	Indiana
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Duke	[Troy]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Utah
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Purdue	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Iowa	Fresno St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Texas
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Key Games This Week

There may not be as many marquee games this week as there were last week, but because the season is now past the halfway mark, regular games begin to have more meaning as teams with no championship hopes look to secure bowl bids.

There are a number of games where the winner might greatly improve bowl chances and that could be bowl elimination games for the loser.  Let’s take a quick look at some excellent games on this week’s schedule.

First, on Thursday night, you get five different games, and there is no World Series game, as the teams will travel across the land that day.

Thursday

Western Michigan vs. Toledo: The Broncos are now the favorite to win the West Division and maybe run the table the rest of the way, while Toledo is looking like it could be team #78 out of 78 bowl teams.  The MAC looks like it will have six bowl eligible teams, but five will only get bowl bids.  Toledo and Ohio may be competing for that fifth spot.

Ohio U vs. Ball St.: This is the other half of the MAC equation.  If the Bobcats falter in this game, then they are looking at 5-7.  It’s a must-win game for Ball St., but the schedule does not give them enough winnable games in November to recover from 3-5 to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian St.: The Sun Belt East Division title may be decided Thursday night.  After trying the more conventional style of play with total failure, GSU has gone back to what worked for them for many years–the spread triple option, and it is working.  Appy State enters this game looking like a team that still holds out hope for a Peach Bowl bid if UCF, USF, Houston, and Fresno State lose games down the stretch and they run the table.  This may be the best game of the night and one you will want to watch.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is running out of time to get to six wins with a closing stretch of games against Miami, Virginia, and Georgia.  If Paul Johnson’s team is to finish 3-2, it almost has to include an upset win here.  Virginia Tech finishes with four home games in their final five, and the Hokies have the inside track to the Coastal Division flag.

West Virginia vs. Baylor: West Virginia’s playoff chances probably ended with the loss to Iowa St., but if the Mountaineers run the table, a Sugar Bowl bid is likely their reward.  Baylor needs two wins in their final five games to return to a bowl after a brief absence, and to pull off the trick, the Bears are going to have to upset two teams, because they will be underdogs in all five games.

Friday

Boston College vs. Miami (Fla.): Both teams are still alive for the Camping World bid, but most likely, these two are competing for one of the #3 priority bowls.

Minnesota vs. Indiana: This is a pure bowl elimination game.  The winner stays alive, and the loser is done.

UCLA vs. Utah: The Bruins have won back-to-back games after starting 0-5.  It’s been done before, where a team loses multiple games to start the season and comes back to earn a bowl bid.  A couple years ago, Miami of Ohio started 0-6 and finished 6-6.  Can Chip Kelly work his magic?  If UCLA beats Utah, the Bruins would move into a first place tie in the Pac-12 South.  Of course, if Utah wins, the Utes make a big move forward toward winning the South.  Stay up late and watch this game.

Saturday

Syracuse vs. North Carolina St: After the Wolf Pack’s drubbing at the hands of Clemson, they have no room for error left in the remaining part of their schedule if they want to contend for a New Year’s Six Bowl game.  Not having the West Virginia game on their schedule, they must run the table and finish 11-1.  Syracuse is one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.  This game should be interesting.

Pittsburgh vs. Duke: Pitt has to win this game, or it’s no bowl game for the Panthers in 2018.  Duke is out of the ACC Coastal Division title race, but they need just one more win to become bowl eligible.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin: Four of the seven teams in the Big Ten West Division have one conference loss, and these are two of them.  Neither team is playing as well as predicted this year, as they tend to win ugly.  Northwestern has been forced to come from behind two weeks in a row, including their most previous game against Rutgers.  This was the closest game for the Badgers last year when they ran the table to the Big Ten Championship Game, and it should be close and low-scoring this year.

Eastern Michigan vs. Army: What?  You say this game is a nothing game?  Think again.  These are two teams that will still be playing after December 15.  Army has a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 1996.  EMU needs to win three more games to clinch its second winning season in the last three years.  Expect the scoreboard to get a lot of action in this one.

Nevada vs. San Diego St.: San Diego State barely beat winless San Jose State, while Nevada won big at Hawaii.  This game looks more like a tossup now than it did a couple weeks ago.  SDSU is still in the Mountain West West Division race with Fresno St., but the Aztecs are looking like a runner-up at the moment.

Stanford vs. Washington St.: The Pirate is not a PiRate, but Mike Leach has done an amazing job in Pullman.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Cougars, but after beating Oregon, Washington State is a co-favorite to win the Pac-12 North.  One of the other two co-favorites is their opponent Saturday, and this game will be played on the Farm, where Stanford rarely loses these days.  The winner is in great shape to become the North Division representative in the conference title game.

California vs. Washington: This is an excellent opportunity for the Bears to pick up a statement win at home.  Washington has not been the team the so-called experts thought they would be, and their chances to win the North Division title are no better than their arch-rival’s, and Stanford’s.  A Cal upset comes close to guaranteeing the Golden Bears a 6-6 season and bowl bid.

Florida vs. Georgia: The winner becomes the heavy favorite to get the chance to be embarrassed by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Both teams had an open date to prepare for this game, and both teams’ coaching staffs can prepare excellent game plans.  Expect this game to be low scoring, and the winner may not emerge until the final five to seven minutes.  The winner is the leading contender for the Sugar Bowl, while the loser could still nab a Peach Bowl bid.

Mississippi St. vs. Texas A&M: Texas A&M has lost to Clemson and Alabama, so their 5-2 record is deceiving.  Jimbo Fisher has done an incredible job in his first year at A&M, and if he can lead his team to a road victory, the Aggies might become the favorite to be number two overall in this league and even get into the discussion for a Sugar Bowl bid.

Missouri vs. Kentucky: Kentucky’s incredible 5-0 start hit a snag when the Wildcats’ one-dimensional offense could do nothing against Texas A&M.  Then, it continued to sputter against a Vanderbilt team that is 0-4 in conference play.  Missouri’s defense won’t be able to shut down the Wildcats’ offense, but they still may be able to outscore the ‘Cats and end Kentucky’s chances of winning the SEC East.  Missouri is most likely looking at a Liberty or Music City Bowl bid unless they run the table and finish 9-3.

Oklahoma St. vs. Texas: 2005 was 13 seasons ago.  That’s the last time Oklahoma State failed to earn a bowl bid or end the season with a winning record.  The Cowboys are starting to look like a man on a safari that just put his right foot in quicksand.  A loss at home to Texas will square OSU’s record at 4-4 with some tough November games and most likely a 5-7 record.  Texas now has a legitimate chance to sneak into the Playoffs if the Longhorns can run the table and finish 12-1.  After this game, the toughest remaining games would be home games.  A rematch with the Sooners or possibly with the Mountaineers could get the Longhorns into the #4 position.

Houston vs. South Florida: USF has fiddled its way to a 7-0 record, but if the Bulls start slow this week, they will be 7-1 on Sunday.  Houston is on a roll and almost for sure will win the AAC West Division title.  If they can knock off USF and then beat Central Florida in the Championship Game, the Cougars could be Fiesta-bowl bound.  A loss along the way probably keeps them in an in-state bowl in December.  If USF should put together a four-quarter effort and win this game, then the Bulls are going to gain enough confidence to knock off UCF in Tampa in the regular season finale.

Penn St. vs. Iowa: Three weeks ago, this would have been considered a cinch win for Penn St., but the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and then Michigan State.  They just barely survived a trip to Indiana.  Iowa has two big road games back-to-back starting with this one and then continuing with Purdue in West Lafayette the following week.  The Hawkeyes look like the best overall team in the Big Ten West, but it will be close to impossible for Kirk Ferentz’s team to win both of the two road games.

Michigan St. vs. Purdue: Michigan St. might play its best game of the year this week.  The team has got to be feeling quite upset after they did absolutely nothing against Michigan.  Purdue is going to bounce somewhat after pulling off the big win over Ohio State.  Just look at what happened to Iowa last year the week after they slaughtered Ohio State; Wisconsin slaughtered them.  We don’t think Sparty  can slaughter any Big Ten team remaining on their schedule, and that includes a home game with Rutgers.  But, they have just enough talent and a huge chip on their shoulders, so this game should be much closer than expected.

Louisiana vs. Arkansas St.: The Sun Belt West Division is totally up for grabs entering the last five weeks of the regular season, as four of the five teams have two conference losses.  The winner of this game takes a giant leg up on the rest of the contenders and also comes very close to cinching bowl eligibility.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Believe it or not, but both teams still have a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as the number two seed.  This is a contrast of two coaches on the rise for different reasons.  Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is moving up to the top tier of the coaching pyramid for the next big-time opening.  He could be coaching at a national power in the next couple of years.  Kliff Kingsbury was almost one foot out the door in Lubbock last month, but wins over TCU and Oklahoma State have him back on somewhat solid ground, as the Red Raiders need just one more win to clinch a bowl bid.

Air Force vs. Boise St.: The Falcons need to go 3-2 in to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is sneaky and tricky the rest of the way.  The two hardest remaining games are this one and the next one at Army.  Losses in both games means AFA would have to win their last three to become bowl eligible.  Boise State has an uphill climb to make the MWC Championship Game, as they are a game behind Utah State, and they must still play Fresno State.  A loss here gives the Mountain Division title to Utah State.

Florida St. vs. Clemson: This game has such a history, but history is probably all Florida State fans can hold onto in this game.  Clemson should win by double digits in this one, but stranger things have happened.  Clemson has lost games as big favorites the prior two years, and this looks like a trap game.  The Seminoles must upset somebody in order to become bowl eligible.

Fresno St. vs. Hawaii: This game won’t end until the wee hours of the morning on the East Coast, so a lot of the Eastern elite press will not give it much notice.  However, you can stay up and watch it on ESPN2.  Fresno State is like a horse with a great closing run that is sitting 7 lengths off the pace in a Stakes race but has been on the rail saving ground since the start.  The Bulldogs lost early at Minnesota and have a win at UCLA.  They sit at 6-1, and there isn’t an opponent left on the schedule they cannot beat.  This race is shaping up so that Jeff Tedford’s team could go 12-1.  Now, it is up to those speed horses up front to fall back to the pack.  If USF, UCF, and Houston lose another game this year and FSU wins out, then the Bulldogs should earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.  Hawaii should not give Fresno much of a challenge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	October 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas St.	Appalachian St.	-6.3	-6.6	-6.1

 

Thursday	October 11
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	Texas Tech	7.5	7.8	7.6
Texas St.	Georgia Southern	-17.3	-15.9	-18.5

 

Friday	October 12
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulsa	South Florida	-4.8	-8.0	-4.8
Utah	Arizona	15.0	14.9	15.3
San Diego St.	Air Force	10.9	10.7	12.2

 

Saturday	October 13
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Louisville	22.4	20.0	23.1
Virginia	Miami (Fla.)	-9.9	-8.1	-10.5
Eastern Michigan	Toledo	-1.7	-1.5	-0.8
South Carolina	Texas A&M	1.7	2.0	1.5
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana-Monroe	2.3	5.2	2.6
Illinois	Purdue	-11.6	-10.2	-12.1
Central Michigan	Ball St.	3.8	4.1	4.6
Georgia Tech	Duke	1.4	2.7	1.7
Maryland	Rutgers	22.8	22.3	23.8
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	-11.1	-11.3	-11.7
Charlotte	Western Kentucky	-7.0	-8.1	-8.3
East Carolina	Houston	-16.9	-17.7	-17.5
Buffalo	Akron	8.0	8.9	8.6
Old Dominion	Marshall	-6.6	-5.5	-7.8
Florida Int’l.	Middle Tennessee	0.6	3.4	0.2
Miami (O)	Kent St.	15.2	15.8	18.0
Utah St.	UNLV	23.9	23.7	24.8
Colorado St.	New Mexico	-1.5	-2.2	-1.7
Liberty	Troy	-9.3	-11.8	-10.8
Notre Dame	Pittsburgh	28.3	26.1	28.3
USC	Colorado	8.6	5.4	6.6
San Jose St.	Army	-21.7	-21.5	-23.7
Oregon	Washington	-7.7	-5.5	-8.5
Northern Illinois	Ohio U	5.3	5.0	4.7
UTSA	Louisiana Tech	-10.9	-8.8	-11.3
Bowling Green	Western Michigan	-9.1	-10.9	-10.2
Arkansas	Ole Miss	-0.3	-2.3	-1.5
Michigan	Wisconsin	9.6	10.9	10.3
Ohio St.	Minnesota	29.2	27.9	30.0
Navy	Temple	-8.5	-6.3	-10.0
Iowa St.	West Virginia	-0.5	-1.2	-0.2
North Texas	Southern Miss.	17.8	17.1	17.9
Northwestern	Nebraska	20.1	19.8	22.3
Indiana	Iowa	-11.4	-10.1	-10.9
Memphis	Central Florida	-10.2	-8.5	-9.9
Auburn	Tennessee	24.5	22.7	26.8
Texas	Baylor	13.3	13.9	13.4
Alabama	Missouri	28.3	27.8	28.9
Vanderbilt	Florida	-11.7	-9.6	-12.9
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.	-5.7	-5.4	-6.8
Rice	UAB	-20.8	-20.6	-23.2
LSU	Georgia	-13.1	-9.8	-13.1
Louisiana	New Mexico St.	5.7	5.8	6.3
Penn St.	Michigan St.	10.3	9.7	11.4
BYU	Hawaii	21.5	19.7	23.0
California	UCLA	13.8	11.5	15.6
Fresno St.	Wyoming	19.1	18.1	20.1
Nevada	Boise St.	-17.5	-17.1	-18.3

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
South Alabama	Alabama St.	29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.1	138.0	141.7	139.9
2	Clemson	133.6	131.0	134.1	132.9
3	Georgia	131.0	127.7	132.0	130.2
4	Ohio St.	128.7	126.6	129.2	128.2
5	Notre Dame	125.8	122.9	125.0	124.5
6	Washington	123.9	121.8	125.4	123.7
7	Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4
8	Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1
9	Oklahoma	119.4	118.0	119.7	119.0
10	Mississippi St.	119.6	117.1	120.3	119.0
11	Auburn	118.2	116.9	119.8	118.3
12	Miami	117.0	115.6	116.7	116.5
13	Wisconsin	117.2	114.5	116.7	116.1
14	Michigan St.	116.5	114.4	115.8	115.6
15	Central Florida	115.1	115.2	115.6	115.3
16	L S U	114.9	114.9	115.9	115.2
17	Missouri	114.8	113.2	115.8	114.6
18	Florida	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4
19	Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2
20	N. Carolina St.	114.2	113.6	114.1	114.0
21	West Virginia	114.5	113.6	113.8	113.9
22	Stanford	114.8	112.1	114.8	113.9
23	Utah	114.1	112.3	114.8	113.8
24	Boston College	114.5	111.9	114.1	113.5
25	Iowa	114.4	112.2	113.8	113.5
26	Oregon	113.2	113.2	113.9	113.4
27	Texas	113.9	112.6	113.6	113.3
28	Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2
29	Duke	114.1	111.8	113.5	113.2
30	Virginia Tech	113.1	112.2	112.9	112.7
31	T C U	113.2	112.2	112.0	112.4
32	Northwestern	112.8	111.1	113.0	112.3
33	Georgia Tech	112.4	111.5	112.2	112.1
34	S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.2	112.0
35	Boise St.	111.4	110.8	111.8	111.3
36	Oklahoma St.	111.7	109.9	111.7	111.1
37	Fresno St.	110.6	109.5	110.9	110.4
38	Iowa State	111.0	109.3	110.6	110.3
39	Syracuse	109.6	108.2	108.8	108.9
40	U S C	109.7	107.9	108.9	108.8
41	Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7
42	Texas Tech	108.7	107.3	107.4	107.8
43	Purdue	107.8	106.2	107.4	107.1
44	Arizona St.	107.6	106.3	107.2	107.0
45	Utah St.	106.1	107.4	107.5	107.0
46	Florida St.	107.1	106.5	106.8	106.8
47	California	107.3	104.8	106.7	106.3
48	Colorado	104.1	105.6	105.3	105.0
49	Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0
50	Virginia	104.1	104.6	103.2	104.0
51	Ole Miss	103.7	103.3	103.9	103.6
52	San Diego St.	102.8	103.1	103.9	103.2
53	Houston	102.9	103.5	103.1	103.2
54	Army	102.5	103.1	102.7	102.8
55	Memphis	101.9	103.7	102.7	102.8
56	Temple	102.4	102.4	103.3	102.7
57	Minnesota	102.5	101.7	102.2	102.1
58	Kansas St.	103.0	101.5	101.8	102.1
59	Wake Forest	103.5	101.1	101.2	101.9
60	Baylor	102.6	100.7	102.1	101.8
61	Arizona	102.2	100.5	102.5	101.7
62	N. Texas	99.6	102.0	100.4	100.6
63	Vanderbilt	100.4	100.8	100.3	100.5
64	BYU	99.9	100.2	100.5	100.2
65	Pittsburgh	100.4	99.8	99.6	100.0
66	Indiana	100.0	99.2	99.8	99.7
67	South Florida	98.6	100.8	98.9	99.4
68	Appalachian St.	98.4	100.1	99.9	99.4
69	Arkansas	100.4	97.9	99.4	99.2
70	Cincinnati	97.9	99.5	98.3	98.5
71	N. Carolina	99.0	97.9	98.2	98.4
72	Kansas	98.9	97.5	97.2	97.9
73	Buffalo	96.8	98.9	97.8	97.8
74	Toledo	97.4	98.5	97.1	97.7
75	Florida Atlantic	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4
76	Tennessee	96.7	97.1	96.0	96.6
77	U C L A	96.5	96.3	94.1	95.6
78	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.7	94.8	95.2
79	Air Force	94.9	95.4	94.7	95.0
80	Louisville	95.1	94.9	94.1	94.7
81	Nebraska	95.8	94.3	93.7	94.6
82	Wyoming	94.6	94.5	93.9	94.3
83	Tulane	94.2	94.6	94.0	94.3
84	Louisiana Tech	93.0	95.3	94.3	94.2
85	Illinois	94.2	94.0	93.4	93.9
86	Eastern Michigan	93.2	94.5	93.8	93.8
87	Marshall	92.5	95.0	93.3	93.6
88	U A B	92.3	94.7	92.9	93.3
89	Ohio U	92.6	93.8	93.1	93.2
90	Troy	92.1	93.6	93.6	93.1
91	Western Michigan	92.0	93.8	93.1	93.0
92	Miami (O)	91.6	93.3	94.0	93.0
93	Middle Tennessee	91.9	93.2	93.1	92.7
94	Akron	91.7	93.0	92.2	92.3
95	Navy	91.4	93.6	90.8	92.0
96	SMU	91.8	91.2	90.8	91.3
97	Florida Int’l.	89.5	93.6	90.3	91.1
98	Georgia Southern	90.0	91.6	90.8	90.8
99	Nevada	90.9	90.6	90.5	90.7
100	Tulsa	90.8	89.8	91.1	90.6
101	Arkansas St.	89.1	90.5	90.7	90.1
102	New Mexico	88.7	90.3	88.8	89.3
103	Central Michigan	85.4	87.9	85.9	86.4
104	Southern Miss.	84.7	87.8	85.5	86.0
105	U N L V	85.2	86.7	85.6	85.8
106	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.3	85.3	85.6
107	Oregon St.	86.6	84.2	84.8	85.2
108	Ball St.	84.1	86.4	83.8	84.8
109	Old Dominion	83.4	87.0	83.0	84.5
110	Colo. State	84.2	85.1	84.1	84.5
111	Massachusetts	83.2	85.1	84.1	84.1
112	Rutgers	85.0	84.0	83.1	84.0
113	East Carolina	83.0	82.8	82.6	82.8
114	Hawaii	82.4	84.5	81.5	82.8
115	U T S A	79.1	83.5	79.9	80.9
116	Bowling Green	80.4	80.5	80.4	80.4
117	Coastal Carolina	78.9	81.7	79.5	80.0
118	Georgia St.	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9
119	Louisiana	78.9	81.0	79.9	79.9
120	Liberty	79.8	78.8	79.8	79.5
121	UL-Monroe	79.1	79.0	79.4	79.2
122	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.5	79.1
123	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.8	77.0
124	N. Mexico St.	76.2	78.2	76.5	77.0
125	San Jose St.	77.3	78.1	75.5	77.0
126	Charlotte	74.6	76.8	74.5	75.3
127	Connecticut	73.3	73.6	71.9	72.9
128	U T E P	71.1	74.2	70.5	71.9
129	Texas State	70.2	73.2	69.8	71.1
130	Rice	69.0	71.6	67.2	69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	115.1	115.2	115.6	115.3	2-0	5-0
Temple	102.4	102.4	103.3	102.7	2-0	3-3
South Florida	98.6	100.8	98.9	99.4	1-0	5-0
Cincinnati	97.9	99.5	98.3	98.5	2-0	6-0
East Carolina	83.0	82.8	82.6	82.8	0-2	2-3
Connecticut	73.3	73.6	71.9	72.9	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	102.9	103.5	103.1	103.2	1-0	4-1
Memphis	101.9	103.7	102.7	102.8	1-2	4-2
Tulane	94.2	94.6	94.0	94.3	1-1	2-4
Navy	91.4	93.6	90.8	92.0	1-1	2-3
SMU	91.8	91.2	90.8	91.3	1-1	2-4
Tulsa	90.8	89.8	91.1	90.6	0-2	1-4
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.6	131.0	134.1	132.9	3-0	6-0
N. Carolina St.	114.2	113.6	114.1	114.0	1-0	5-0
Boston College	114.5	111.9	114.1	113.5	1-1	4-2
Syracuse	109.6	108.2	108.8	108.9	1-2	4-2
Florida St.	107.1	106.5	106.8	106.8	1-3	3-3
Wake Forest	103.5	101.1	101.2	101.9	0-2	3-3
Louisville	95.1	94.9	94.1	94.7	0-3	2-4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	117.0	115.6	116.7	116.5	2-0	5-1
Duke	114.1	111.8	113.5	113.2	0-1	4-1
Virginia Tech	113.1	112.2	112.9	112.7	2-0	3-2
Georgia Tech	112.4	111.5	112.2	112.1	1-2	3-3
Virginia	104.1	104.6	103.2	104.0	1-1	3-2
Pittsburgh	100.4	99.8	99.6	100.0	2-1	3-3
N. Carolina	99.0	97.9	98.2	98.4	1-1	1-3
ACC Averages	109.8	108.6	109.3	109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.4	118.0	119.7	119.0	2-1	5-1
West Virginia	114.5	113.6	113.8	113.9	3-0	5-0
Texas	113.9	112.6	113.6	113.3	3-0	5-1
T C U	113.2	112.2	112.0	112.4	1-1	3-2
Oklahoma St.	111.7	109.9	111.7	111.1	1-2	4-2
Iowa State	111.0	109.3	110.6	110.3	1-2	2-3
Texas Tech	108.7	107.3	107.4	107.8	1-1	3-2
Kansas St.	103.0	101.5	101.8	102.1	0-3	2-4
Baylor	102.6	100.7	102.1	101.8	2-1	4-2
Kansas	98.9	97.5	97.2	97.9	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	126.6	129.2	128.2	3-0	6-0
Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4	3-0	5-1
Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1	1-1	4-1
Michigan St.	116.5	114.4	115.8	115.6	2-1	3-2
Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0	1-1	3-2
Indiana	100.0	99.2	99.8	99.7	1-2	4-2
Rutgers	85.0	84.0	83.1	84.0	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.2	114.5	116.7	116.1	2-0	4-1
Iowa	114.4	112.2	113.8	113.5	1-1	4-1
Northwestern	112.8	111.1	113.0	112.3	2-1	2-3
Purdue	107.8	106.2	107.4	107.1	1-1	2-3
Minnesota	102.5	101.7	102.2	102.1	0-2	3-2
Nebraska	95.8	94.3	93.7	94.6	0-3	0-5
Illinois	94.2	94.0	93.4	93.9	1-1	3-2
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.6	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4	1-1	3-3
Marshall	92.5	95.0	93.3	93.6	1-1	3-2
Middle Tennessee	91.9	93.2	93.1	92.7	2-0	3-2
Florida Int’l.	89.5	93.6	90.3	91.1	1-0	3-2
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.3	85.3	85.6	0-1	1-4
Old Dominion	83.4	87.0	83.0	84.5	0-3	1-5
Charlotte	74.6	76.8	74.5	75.3	1-1	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.6	102.0	100.4	100.6	1-1	5-1
Louisiana Tech	93.0	95.3	94.3	94.2	1-1	3-2
U A B	92.3	94.7	92.9	93.3	2-0	4-1
Southern Miss.	84.7	87.8	85.5	86.0	1-0	2-2
U T S A	79.1	83.5	79.9	80.9	2-0	3-3
U T E P	71.1	74.2	70.5	71.9	0-2	0-6
Rice	69.0	71.6	67.2	69.3	0-2	1-5
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.6	86.3	86.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	125.8	122.9	125.0	124.5	x	6-0
Army	102.5	103.1	102.7	102.8	x	3-2
BYU	99.9	100.2	100.5	100.2	x	3-3
Massachusetts	83.2	85.1	84.1	84.1	x	2-5
Liberty	79.8	78.8	79.8	79.5	x	2-3
N. Mexico St.	76.2	78.2	76.5	77.0	x	2-4
Independents Averages	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	96.8	98.9	97.8	97.8	2-0	5-1
Ohio U	92.6	93.8	93.1	93.2	1-0	3-2
Miami (O)	91.6	93.3	94.0	93.0	2-1	2-4
Akron	91.7	93.0	92.2	92.3	0-1	2-2
Bowling Green	80.4	80.5	80.4	80.4	0-2	1-5
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.5	79.1	0-2	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.4	98.5	97.1	97.7	1-0	3-2
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.7	94.8	95.2	3-0	3-3
Eastern Michigan	93.2	94.5	93.8	93.8	0-3	2-4
Western Michigan	92.0	93.8	93.1	93.0	2-0	4-2
Central Michigan	85.4	87.9	85.9	86.4	0-2	1-5
Ball St.	84.1	86.4	83.8	84.8	1-1	2-4
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.4	110.8	111.8	111.3	1-1	3-2
Utah St.	106.1	107.4	107.5	107.0	1-0	4-1
Air Force	94.9	95.4	94.7	95.0	0-2	2-3
Wyoming	94.6	94.5	93.9	94.3	0-2	2-4
New Mexico	88.7	90.3	88.8	89.3	1-0	3-2
Colo. State	84.2	85.1	84.1	84.5	1-1	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.6	109.5	110.9	110.4	1-0	4-1
San Diego St.	102.8	103.1	103.9	103.2	1-0	4-1
Nevada	90.9	90.6	90.5	90.7	1-1	3-3
U N L V	85.2	86.7	85.6	85.8	0-1	2-3
Hawaii	82.4	84.5	81.5	82.8	3-0	6-1
San Jose St.	77.3	78.1	75.5	77.0	0-2	0-5
MWC Averages	94.1	94.7	94.1	94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	123.9	121.8	125.4	123.7	3-0	5-1
Stanford	114.8	112.1	114.8	113.9	2-1	4-2
Oregon	113.2	113.2	113.9	113.4	1-1	4-1
Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7	2-1	5-1
California	107.3	104.8	106.7	106.3	0-2	3-2
Oregon St.	86.6	84.2	84.8	85.2	0-3	1-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	114.1	112.3	114.8	113.8	1-2	3-2
U S C	109.7	107.9	108.9	108.8	2-1	3-2
Arizona St.	107.6	106.3	107.2	107.0	1-2	3-3
Colorado	104.1	105.6	105.3	105.0	2-0	5-0
Arizona	102.2	100.5	102.5	101.7	2-1	3-3
U C L A	96.5	96.3	94.1	95.6	0-2	0-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.0	127.7	132.0	130.2	4-0	6-0
Missouri	114.8	113.2	115.8	114.6	0-2	3-2
Florida	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4	3-1	5-1
Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2	3-1	5-1
S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.2	112.0	2-2	3-2
Vanderbilt	100.4	100.8	100.3	100.5	0-2	3-3
Tennessee	96.7	97.1	96.0	96.6	0-2	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.1	138.0	141.7	139.9	3-0	6-0
Mississippi St.	119.6	117.1	120.3	119.0	1-2	4-2
Auburn	118.2	116.9	119.8	118.3	1-2	4-2
L S U	114.9	114.9	115.9	115.2	2-1	5-1
Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2	2-1	4-2
Ole Miss	103.7	103.3	103.9	103.6	0-2	4-2
Arkansas	100.4	97.9	99.4	99.2	0-3	1-5
SEC Averages	113.9	112.6	114.4	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.4	100.1	99.9	99.4	1-0	3-1
Troy	92.1	93.6	93.6	93.1	3-0	5-1
Georgia Southern	90.0	91.6	90.8	90.8	2-0	4-1
Coastal Carolina	78.9	81.7	79.5	80.0	1-1	3-2
Georgia St.	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9	1-1	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.1	90.5	90.7	90.1	0-1	3-2
Louisiana	78.9	81.0	79.9	79.9	1-1	2-3
UL-Monroe	79.1	79.0	79.4	79.2	0-2	2-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.8	77.0	1-2	1-5
Texas State	70.2	73.2	69.8	71.1	0-2	1-4
Sun Belt Averages	83.2	85.0	84.0	84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.9	112.6	114.4	113.6
2	ACC	109.8	108.6	109.3	109.2
3	B12	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.6	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
7	IND	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
8	MWC	94.1	94.7	94.1	94.3
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.8	88.6	86.3	86.9
11	SUN	83.2	85.0	84.0	84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1	Central Florida
2	South Florida
3	Cincinnati
4	Fresno St.
5	San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Colorado
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Florida Atlantic	Louisiana
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	UAB
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[BYU]	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[Army]	[Marshall]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Utah]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Arizona St.]	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Utah St.]	Michigan St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Nevada]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	USC
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Duke
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	Washington St.
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Ohio St.	Clemson
Orange			Alabama	Notre Dame
National Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 6

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday	October 4
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Tulsa	15.2	17.1	15.0
Troy	Georgia St.	16.2	15.3	16.8

 

Friday	October 5
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Marshall	Middle Tennesee	7.2	8.8	7.2
Louisville	Georgia Tech	-9.5	-8.4	-10.0
BYU	Utah St.	0.1	-0.9	-0.5

 

Saturday	October 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	11.5	11.0	11.3
Massachusetts	South Florida	-11.7	-11.8	-10.5
Wake Forest	Clemson	-19.6	-19.1	-22.5
Temple	East Carolina	15.0	15.0	15.9
Ball St.	Northern Illinois	-8.3	-6.7	-8.5
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	-7.4	-6.3	-7.6
Central Florida	SMU	26.2	26.8	27.6
Florida Atlantic	Old Dominion	16.2	12.7	16.7
Ohio St.	Indiana	33.1	31.6	34.2
North Carolina St.	Boston College	2.0	4.4	1.9
Florida	LSU	1.8	-0.4	1.4
South Carolina	Missouri	0.6	1.1	-1.0
Michigan	Maryland	21.9	22.1	23.2
Cincinnati	Tulane	3.6	4.9	4.1
Kent St.	Ohio U	-13.5	-13.8	-14.7
Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	1.1	1.7	1.4
Central Michigan	Buffalo	-8.7	-8.3	-9.3
Akron	Miami (O)	9.3	8.8	7.0
Virginia Tech	Notre Dame	-6.7	-4.1	-5.4
Rutgers	Illinois	-1.1	-1.7	-1.8
Boise St.	San Diego St.	17.5	16.4	17.2
Colorado	Arizona St.	-2.3	0.6	-1.1
New Mexico St.	Liberty	-3.2	0.2	-3.3
UTEP	North Texas	-32.0	-31.3	-33.5
UCLA	Washington	-27.8	-25.9	-32.5
Stanford	Utah	10.5	9.5	10.2
Nevada	Fresno St.	-16.5	-15.3	-16.8
Oregon St.	Washington St.	-20.0	-21.4	-21.0
Arizona	California	-3.1	-2.0	-2.3
UNLV	New Mexico	8.2	8.1	8.5
Michigan St.	Northwestern	13.3	13.2	12.8
West Virginia	Kansas	18.7	19.3	20.3
Arkansas	Alabama	-37.0	-37.3	-40.1
Louisiana Tech	UAB	8.6	8.8	9.7
Texas A&M	Kentucky	2.1	1.8	2.2
Oklahoma St.	Iowa St.	6.4	6.4	7.1
Georgia	Vanderbilt	33.8	29.8	35.0
Minnesota	Iowa	-6.5	-4.6	-5.8
Toledo	Bowling Green	19.9	21.3	20.0
Mississippi St.	Auburn	2.0	0.5	0.5
Air Force	Navy	-0.7	-3.0	-0.7
Ole Miss	UL-Monroe	22.0	21.7	22.0
Texas (n)	Oklahoma	-8.3	-8.4	-9.5
Memphis	Connecticut	28.9	30.4	30.9
Texas St.	Louisiana	-4.0	-2.7	-5.3
Rice	UTSA	-6.3	-7.7	-8.1
Baylor	Kansas St.	2.3	1.7	3.0
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.	14.7	14.2	15.2
Wisconsin	Nebraska	26.8	25.8	29.0
San Jose St.	Colorado St.	-1.2	-1.2	-3.0
Hawaii	Wyoming	-11.6	-9.2	-12.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive ratings.  While past results are a major factor, these are not rankings based on what the teams have done so far.  Some teams will be ranked ahead of teams that beat them.  We are only trying to rate the teams based on what they should do in their next game.  Thus, our goal is to beat the spread and pick winners rather than be a report card for each team.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.0	137.9	141.9	139.9
2	Georgia	131.1	127.6	132.1	130.2
3	Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0
4	Clemson	129.2	126.5	129.8	128.5
5	Washington	125.6	123.5	127.5	125.5
6	Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4
7	Penn St.	123.5	120.8	124.0	122.8
8	Notre Dame	124.1	120.9	123.0	122.6
9	Oklahoma	120.8	119.5	121.4	120.6
10	Auburn	119.4	118.3	121.3	119.7
11	Michigan St.	120.3	118.3	119.8	119.5
12	Miami	118.3	117.0	118.2	117.9
13	Mississippi St.	118.4	115.7	118.8	117.7
14	Wisconsin	118.4	115.8	118.2	117.5
15	Stanford	118.2	115.5	118.4	117.4
16	L S U	115.4	115.6	116.6	115.9
17	Central Florida	115.0	115.1	115.5	115.2
18	Missouri	114.8	113.2	116.0	114.6
19	Boise St.	114.3	113.6	114.9	114.3
20	Virginia Tech	114.4	113.8	114.5	114.2
21	Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2
22	West Virginia	114.5	113.7	114.1	114.1
23	Boston College	114.8	112.0	114.6	113.8
24	Florida	114.2	112.3	115.0	113.8
25	N. Carolina St.	113.8	113.4	113.5	113.6
26	Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2
27	Oregon	112.9	112.9	113.6	113.1
28	Duke	113.8	111.5	113.2	112.9
29	Oklahoma St.	113.2	111.5	113.4	112.7
30	T C U	112.9	111.9	111.7	112.1
31	Iowa	113.2	110.7	112.4	112.1
32	S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.0	111.9
33	Texas	112.5	111.1	111.9	111.8
34	Utah	110.7	108.9	111.2	110.3
35	Fresno St.	110.5	109.2	110.6	110.1
36	Georgia Tech	110.0	108.9	109.6	109.5
37	Syracuse	110.2	108.7	109.5	109.5
38	Northwestern	110.0	108.2	110.0	109.4
39	Iowa State	109.8	108.0	109.2	109.0
40	Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7
41	U S C	109.4	107.6	108.6	108.5
42	Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.2	107.9
43	Texas Tech	108.4	107.0	107.1	107.5
44	California	107.9	105.3	107.4	106.9
45	Purdue	107.5	105.9	107.1	106.8
46	Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7
47	Wake Forest	107.2	104.9	104.8	105.6
48	Utah St.	103.7	105.0	105.0	104.6
49	N. Texas	103.1	105.5	103.9	104.1
50	Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0
51	Colorado	103.1	104.7	104.2	104.0
52	Virginia	103.8	104.3	102.9	103.7
53	Minnesota	103.7	103.2	103.6	103.5
54	Houston	102.9	103.7	103.1	103.2
55	BYU	102.3	102.6	103.0	102.6
56	Army	102.3	102.9	102.5	102.6
57	Kansas St.	103.3	101.9	102.1	102.4
58	Baylor	102.6	100.6	102.1	101.8
59	Memphis	100.8	102.6	101.5	101.6
60	Ole Miss	101.7	101.3	101.9	101.6
61	Arizona	101.9	100.3	102.1	101.4
62	Vanderbilt	100.2	100.8	100.1	100.4
63	San Diego St.	99.8	100.2	100.7	100.2
64	Pittsburgh	99.8	99.3	98.9	99.4
65	Appalachian St.	98.1	99.8	99.6	99.1
66	Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.0	99.0
67	South Florida	98.2	100.3	98.2	98.9
68	Temple	98.7	98.6	99.4	98.9
69	Arkansas	100.1	97.6	98.8	98.8
70	N. Carolina	98.7	97.6	97.9	98.1
71	Toledo	97.6	98.9	97.5	98.0
72	Louisville	98.0	98.0	97.2	97.7
73	Buffalo	96.7	98.8	97.7	97.7
74	Kansas	98.8	97.3	96.8	97.6
75	Cincinnati	96.6	98.2	96.9	97.2
76	Florida Atlantic	96.8	97.2	97.2	97.1
77	Louisiana Tech	95.5	97.9	97.0	96.8
78	Tennessee	96.4	96.8	95.7	96.3
79	Navy	95.5	98.0	95.1	96.2
80	Wyoming	96.3	96.1	95.9	96.1
81	Marshall	94.3	97.0	95.3	95.6
82	Tulane	95.4	95.8	95.3	95.5
83	Akron	94.9	96.1	95.2	95.4
84	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.6	94.8	95.1
85	Ohio U	93.9	95.2	94.6	94.6
86	Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.6	94.0	94.0
87	U C L A	94.8	94.6	92.0	93.8
88	Nebraska	94.6	93.0	92.2	93.2
89	Troy	92.1	93.5	93.6	93.1
90	Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9
91	Air Force	91.8	92.0	91.4	91.7
92	Illinois	91.8	91.5	90.8	91.4
93	SMU	91.9	91.3	90.9	91.4
94	Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.4	90.1	90.9
95	Nevada	91.0	90.9	90.8	90.9
96	Middle Tennessee	90.1	91.2	91.1	90.8
97	U N L V	89.9	91.4	90.3	90.5
98	Tulsa	90.8	89.6	91.1	90.5
99	U A B	89.3	91.6	89.7	90.2
100	Arkansas St.	88.9	90.3	90.5	89.9
101	Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6
102	Georgia Southern	87.5	89.0	88.1	88.2
103	Rutgers	87.7	86.8	86.0	86.8
104	Central Michigan	85.5	88.0	86.0	86.5
105	East Carolina	86.2	86.1	86.0	86.1
106	Southern Miss.	84.5	87.6	85.3	85.8
107	W. Kentucky	83.9	87.1	85.1	85.4
108	New Mexico	84.7	86.3	84.8	85.3
109	Oregon St.	86.3	83.9	84.5	84.9
110	Old Dominion	83.6	87.5	83.4	84.9
111	Ball St.	84.1	86.5	83.8	84.8
112	Massachusetts	83.5	85.5	84.7	84.6
113	Colo. State	82.9	83.7	82.8	83.1
114	UL-Monroe	82.1	82.0	82.4	82.2
115	Hawaii	80.7	82.9	79.5	81.0
116	Liberty	81.1	79.9	81.3	80.8
117	U T S A	78.7	82.9	79.1	80.3
118	Bowling Green	80.2	80.1	80.0	80.1
119	Georgia St.	79.0	81.1	79.8	80.0
120	South Alabama	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9
121	Coastal Carolina	78.7	81.5	79.3	79.8
122	Louisiana	77.8	79.7	78.8	78.8
123	San Jose St.	78.6	79.5	76.8	78.3
124	Kent St.	77.9	78.9	77.3	78.0
125	N. Mexico St.	74.9	77.1	75.0	75.7
126	Charlotte	74.4	76.6	74.3	75.1
127	Connecticut	74.9	75.2	73.6	74.6
128	Texas State	71.3	74.5	70.9	72.2
129	Rice	69.9	72.7	68.5	70.4
130	U T E P	68.6	71.7	68.0	69.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	115.0	115.1	115.5	115.2	1-0	4-0
South Florida	98.2	100.3	98.2	98.9	1-0	4-0
Temple	98.7	98.6	99.4	98.9	1-0	2-3
Cincinnati	96.6	98.2	96.9	97.2	1-0	5-0
East Carolina	86.2	86.1	86.0	86.1	0-1	2-2
Connecticut	74.9	75.2	73.6	74.6	0-2	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	102.9	103.7	103.1	103.2	0-0	3-1
Memphis	100.8	102.6	101.5	101.6	0-2	3-2
Navy	95.5	98.0	95.1	96.2	1-1	2-2
Tulane	95.4	95.8	95.3	95.5	1-0	2-3
SMU	91.9	91.3	90.9	91.4	1-0	2-3
Tulsa	90.8	89.6	91.1	90.5	0-1	1-3
AAC Averages	95.6	96.2	95.6	95.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	129.2	126.5	129.8	128.5	1-0	4-0
Boston College	114.8	112.0	114.6	113.8	1-0	3-1
N. Carolina St.	113.8	113.4	113.5	113.6	0-0	3-0
Syracuse	110.2	108.7	109.5	109.5	1-0	4-0
Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7	0-2	2-2
Wake Forest	107.2	104.9	104.8	105.6	0-1	2-2
Louisville	98.0	98.0	97.2	97.7	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	118.3	117.0	118.2	117.9	0-0	3-1
Virginia Tech	114.4	113.8	114.5	114.2	1-0	2-1
Duke	113.8	111.5	113.2	112.9	0-0	4-0
Georgia Tech	110.0	108.9	109.6	109.5	0-2	1-3
Virginia	103.8	104.3	102.9	103.7	1-0	3-1
Pittsburgh	99.8	99.3	98.9	99.4	1-1	2-2
N. Carolina	98.7	97.6	97.9	98.1	1-0	1-2
ACC Averages	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	120.8	119.5	121.4	120.6	2-0	5-0
West Virginia	114.5	113.7	114.1	114.1	2-0	4-0
Oklahoma St.	113.2	111.5	113.4	112.7	1-1	4-1
T C U	112.9	111.9	111.7	112.1	1-1	3-2
Texas	112.5	111.1	111.9	111.8	2-0	4-1
Iowa State	109.8	108.0	109.2	109.0	0-2	1-3
Texas Tech	108.4	107.0	107.1	107.5	1-1	3-2
Kansas St.	103.3	101.9	102.1	102.4	0-2	2-3
Baylor	102.6	100.6	102.1	101.8	1-1	3-2
Kansas	98.8	97.3	96.8	97.6	0-2	2-3
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0	2-0	5-0
Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4	2-0	4-1
Penn St.	123.5	120.8	124.0	122.8	1-1	4-1
Michigan St.	120.3	118.3	119.8	119.5	2-0	3-1
Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0	1-0	3-1
Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.0	99.0	1-1	4-1
Rutgers	87.7	86.8	86.0	86.8	0-2	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	118.4	115.8	118.2	117.5	1-0	3-1
Iowa	113.2	110.7	112.4	112.1	0-1	3-1
Northwestern	110.0	108.2	110.0	109.4	1-1	1-3
Purdue	107.5	105.9	107.1	106.8	1-1	2-3
Minnesota	103.7	103.2	103.6	103.5	0-1	3-1
Nebraska	94.6	93.0	92.2	93.2	0-2	0-4
Illinois	91.8	91.5	90.8	91.4	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	96.8	97.2	97.2	97.1	0-1	2-3
Marshall	94.3	97.0	95.3	95.6	1-0	3-1
Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.4	90.1	90.9	1-0	3-2
Middle Tennessee	90.1	91.2	91.1	90.8	1-0	2-2
W. Kentucky	83.9	87.1	85.1	85.4	0-1	1-4
Old Dominion	83.6	87.5	83.4	84.9	0-2	1-4
Charlotte	74.4	76.6	74.3	75.1	1-1	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	103.1	105.5	103.9	104.1	0-1	4-1
Louisiana Tech	95.5	97.9	97.0	96.8	1-0	3-1
U A B	89.3	91.6	89.7	90.2	1-0	3-1
Southern Miss.	84.5	87.6	85.3	85.8	1-0	2-2
U T S A	78.7	82.9	79.1	80.3	1-0	2-3
Rice	69.9	72.7	68.5	70.4	0-1	1-4
U T E P	68.6	71.7	68.0	69.4	0-1	0-5
CUSA Averages	85.9	88.6	86.3	86.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.1	120.9	123.0	122.6	x	5-0
BYU	102.3	102.6	103.0	102.6	x	3-2
Army	102.3	102.9	102.5	102.6	x	3-2
Massachusetts	83.5	85.5	84.7	84.6	x	2-4
Liberty	81.1	79.9	81.3	80.8	x	2-2
N. Mexico St.	74.9	77.1	75.0	75.7	x	1-4
Independents Averages	94.7	94.8	94.9	94.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	96.7	98.8	97.7	97.7	1-0	4-1
Akron	94.9	96.1	95.2	95.4	0-0	2-1
Ohio U	93.9	95.2	94.6	94.6	0-0	2-2
Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6	1-1	1-4
Bowling Green	80.2	80.1	80.0	80.1	0-1	1-4
Kent St.	77.9	78.9	77.3	78.0	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.6	98.9	97.5	98.0	0-0	2-2
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.6	94.8	95.1	2-0	2-3
Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.6	94.0	94.0	0-2	2-3
Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9	1-0	3-2
Central Michigan	85.5	88.0	86.0	86.5	0-1	1-4
Ball St.	84.1	86.5	83.8	84.8	1-0	2-3
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	114.3	113.6	114.9	114.3	1-0	3-1
Utah St.	103.7	105.0	105.0	104.6	1-0	3-1
Wyoming	96.3	96.1	95.9	96.1	0-1	2-3
Air Force	91.8	92.0	91.4	91.7	0-2	1-3
New Mexico	84.7	86.3	84.8	85.3	0-0	2-2
Colo. State	82.9	83.7	82.8	83.1	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.5	109.2	110.6	110.1	0-0	3-1
San Diego St.	99.8	100.2	100.7	100.2	0-0	3-1
Nevada	91.0	90.9	90.8	90.9	1-0	3-2
U N L V	89.9	91.4	90.3	90.5	0-0	2-2
Hawaii	80.7	82.9	79.5	81.0	2-0	5-1
San Jose St.	78.6	79.5	76.8	78.3	0-1	0-4
MWC Averages	93.7	94.2	93.6	93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	125.6	123.5	127.5	125.5	2-0	4-1
Stanford	118.2	115.5	118.4	117.4	2-0	4-1
Oregon	112.9	112.9	113.6	113.1	1-1	4-1
Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7	1-1	4-1
California	107.9	105.3	107.4	106.9	0-1	3-1
Oregon St.	86.3	83.9	84.5	84.9	0-2	1-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	110.7	108.9	111.2	110.3	0-2	2-2
U S C	109.4	107.6	108.6	108.5	2-1	3-2
Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.2	107.9	1-1	3-2
Colorado	103.1	104.7	104.2	104.0	1-0	4-0
Arizona	101.9	100.3	102.1	101.4	1-1	2-3
U C L A	94.8	94.6	92.0	93.8	0-1	0-4
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.0	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.1	127.6	132.1	130.2	3-0	5-0
Missouri	114.8	113.2	116.0	114.6	0-1	3-1
Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2	3-0	5-0
Florida	114.2	112.3	115.0	113.8	2-1	4-1
S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.0	111.9	1-2	2-2
Vanderbilt	100.2	100.8	100.1	100.4	0-1	3-2
Tennessee	96.4	96.8	95.7	96.3	0-2	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.0	137.9	141.9	139.9	2-0	5-0
Auburn	119.4	118.3	121.3	119.7	1-1	4-1
Mississippi St.	118.4	115.7	118.8	117.7	0-2	3-2
L S U	115.4	115.6	116.6	115.9	2-0	5-0
Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2	1-1	3-2
Ole Miss	101.7	101.3	101.9	101.6	0-2	3-2
Arkansas	100.1	97.6	98.8	98.8	0-2	1-4
SEC Averages	113.7	112.4	114.2	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.1	99.8	99.6	99.1	1-0	3-1
Troy	92.1	93.5	93.6	93.1	2-0	4-1
Georgia Southern	87.5	89.0	88.1	88.2	1-0	3-1
Georgia St.	79.0	81.1	79.8	80.0	1-0	2-3
Coastal Carolina	78.7	81.5	79.3	79.8	1-1	3-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	88.9	90.3	90.5	89.9	0-1	3-2
UL-Monroe	82.1	82.0	82.4	82.2	0-2	2-3
South Alabama	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9	1-1	1-4
Louisiana	77.8	79.7	78.8	78.8	0-1	1-3
Texas State	71.3	74.5	70.9	72.2	0-1	1-3
Sun Belt Averages	83.4	85.2	84.3	84.3

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.7	112.4	114.2	113.4
2	ACC	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
3	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
5	P-12	107.4	106.0	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.6	96.2	95.6	95.8
7	IND	94.7	94.8	94.9	94.8
8	MWC	93.7	94.2	93.6	93.8