PiRate College Football Ratings: December 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl & Playoff Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Marshall]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Wyoming
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Navy	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Tulane	Southern Miss.
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	[Eastern Michigan]
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	[Air Force]	Washington St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Texas
Cotton	At-large	At-large	[Penn St.]	Memphis
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Florida Atlantic	[Liberty]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	California	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	Tennessee	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Texas A&M
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Washington
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Florida Int’l.]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Alabama	Michigan
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Florida St.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Miami (O)	Nevada
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Kent St.]	Utah St.
Lending Tree	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Louisiana
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Oklahoma
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	LSU
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Spread

Saturday	December 14
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Navy	Army	6.2	8.3	8.2

Game played in Philadelphia

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	141.7	140.8	142.5	141.7
2	Clemson	140.1	138.5	141.5	140.0
3	L S U	137.6	135.7	138.0	137.1
4	Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9
5	Georgia	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
6	Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3
7	Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0
8	Utah	124.3	123.4	124.9	124.2
9	Oklahoma	123.1	122.7	122.9	122.9
10	Wisconsin	122.7	122.6	123.1	122.8
11	Oregon	122.0	121.9	122.8	122.2
12	Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2
13	Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1
14	Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6
15	Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8
16	Baylor	117.5	117.5	116.7	117.2
17	Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8
18	Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7
19	Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3
20	Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9
21	Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3
22	Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8
23	Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6
24	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
25	Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2
26	Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7
27	Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.1	110.5
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3
30	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9
31	Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
32	Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4
33	Appalachian St.	109.4	108.9	108.6	109.0
34	Virginia	107.3	107.2	107.6	107.4
35	Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6
36	T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4
37	Boise St.	108.1	108.5	108.4	108.3
38	South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0
39	North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9
40	Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8
41	Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6
42	Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1
43	Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1
44	Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.1	105.8
45	Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5
46	SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0
47	Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5
49	Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4
50	Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9
51	California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8
52	Louisiana	103.1	103.4	102.8	103.1
53	Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9
54	Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7
55	West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5
56	Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3
57	Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2
58	BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0
59	Florida Atlantic	101.3	101.5	102.6	101.8
60	Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8
61	Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6
62	Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5
63	Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0
64	Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0
65	Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9
66	Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7
67	Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3
68	Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2
69	Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0
70	Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0
71	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
72	U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4
73	Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3
74	San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1
75	Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1
76	Hawaii	96.8	98.1	96.0	97.0
77	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9
78	Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8
79	Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9
80	Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6
81	Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4
82	Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9
83	Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1
84	Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0
85	Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9
86	Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4
87	Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7
88	Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7
89	Central Michigan	92.1	92.7	93.1	92.6
90	Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1
91	North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
93	Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	90.5	89.6	90.8	90.3
95	Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1
96	Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0
97	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0
98	Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8
99	Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3
100	Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3
101	Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3
102	Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2
103	Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1
104	South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0
105	Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9
106	San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6
107	Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3
108	Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0
109	Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7
110	Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4
111	U A B	86.3	88.0	86.9	87.1
112	Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9
114	North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2
115	Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4
116	U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2
117	Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0
118	Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8
119	East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8
120	New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0
121	Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3
122	South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8
123	Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8
124	New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0
125	Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4
126	Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0
127	U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6
128	Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8
129	Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9
Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Pac-12	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.1
10	Conf. USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.1
PiRate Guess at Top 6
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Oklahoma
5	Georgia
6	Utah
Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Boise St.
3	Appalachian St.
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Miami (O)

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6	6-2	9-3
Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.1	105.8	7-1	10-3
Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7	5-3	8-4
South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0	2-6	4-8
East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8	1-7	4-8
Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.1	110.5	7-1	12-1
SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0	6-2	10-2
Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5	7-1	9-2
Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9	3-5	6-6
Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6	2-6	4-8
Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9	2-6	4-8
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	140.1	138.5	141.5	140.0	8-0	13-0
Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8	4-4	6-6
Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9	4-4	8-4
Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8	4-4	6-6
Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0	5-3	7-5
Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2	2-6	5-7
North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8	1-7	4-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7	5-3	8-4
North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9	4-4	6-6
Virginia	107.3	107.2	107.6	107.4	6-2	9-4
Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5	4-4	6-6
Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2	4-4	7-5
Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8	2-6	3-9
ACC Averages	104.6	104.0	104.7	104.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.1	122.7	122.9	122.9	8-1	12-1
Baylor	117.5	117.5	116.7	117.2	8-1	11-2
Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9	5-4	7-5
Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3	5-4	8-4
Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2	5-4	7-5
Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3	5-4	8-4
T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4	3-6	5-7
Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5	3-6	5-7
Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	110.0	109.3	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	141.7	140.8	142.5	141.7	9-0	13-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3	6-3	9-3
Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1	7-2	10-2
Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4	5-4	8-4
Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1	4-5	6-6
Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7	1-8	3-9
Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4	0-9	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	122.7	122.6	123.1	122.8	7-2	10-3
Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8	7-2	10-2
Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1	3-6	5-7
Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9	3-6	4-8
Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7	1-8	3-9
Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3	4-5	6-6
Big Ten Averages	111.4	110.8	110.9	111.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	101.3	101.5	102.6	101.8	7-1	10-3
Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9	6-2	8-4
Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1	4-4	6-6
Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3	5-3	7-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9	6-2	9-3
Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4	5-3	7-5
U A B	86.3	88.0	86.9	87.1	6-2	9-4
North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2	3-5	4-8
Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8	3-5	3-9
Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8	3-5	4-8
U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6	0-8	1-11
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6	x	10-2
BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0	x	7-5
Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0	x	5-7
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0	x	7-5
New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0	x	2-10
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9	x	1-11
Indep. Averages	89.8	90.5	89.4	89.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4	5-3	7-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.5	89.6	90.8	90.3	6-2	8-5
Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3	5-3	6-6
Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8	2-6	3-9
Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3	0-8	0-12
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1	5-3	7-5
Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9	6-2	8-5
Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0	4-4	5-7
Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0	3-5	6-6
Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4	4-4	5-7
Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0	3-5	6-6
MAC Averages	87.0	86.7	87.2	87.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	108.1	108.5	108.4	108.3	8-0	12-1
Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3	4-4	7-5
Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8	6-2	7-5
Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1	5-3	9-3
Hawaii	96.8	98.1	96.0	97.0	5-3	9-5
Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7	2-6	4-8
Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1	4-4	7-5
San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6	2-6	5-7
U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2	2-6	4-8
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.6	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	122.0	121.9	122.8	122.2	8-1	11-2
Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3	4-5	7-5
Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7	3-6	6-6
California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6	4-5	5-7
Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0	3-6	4-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	124.3	123.4	124.9	124.2	8-1	11-2
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5	7-2	8-4
Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8	4-5	7-5
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6	3-6	5-7
U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4	4-5	4-8
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9	2-7	4-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	107.2	107.7	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	7-1	11-2
Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0	6-2	10-2
Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8	3-5	7-5
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4	5-3	7-5
Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6	3-5	6-6
South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0	3-5	4-8
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	137.6	135.7	138.0	137.1	8-0	13-0
Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9	6-2	10-2
Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2	5-3	9-3
Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7	4-4	7-5
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9	3-5	6-6
Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6	2-6	4-8
Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.1	112.2	113.8	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	109.4	108.9	108.6	109.0	7-1	12-1
Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0	5-3	7-5
Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3	4-4	7-5
Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2	3-5	5-7
Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	103.1	103.4	102.8	103.1	7-1	10-3
Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0	5-3	7-5
Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9	4-4	5-7
Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3	2-6	3-9
South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8	1-7	2-10
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: December 1, 2019

This Week’s Conference Championships Spreads

All times given are Eastern Standard

Friday, December 6

Conference	Pac-12
North Division	Oregon 10-2
South Division	Utah 11-1
Site:	Santa Clara
Time:	8:00 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Utah by 7.1
Mean:	Utah by 6.3
Bias:	Utah by 6.8
Predicted Score:	Utah 27
	Oregon 20

 

 

Saturday, December 7

 

Conference	Sun Belt
East Division	Appalachian St. 11-1
West Division	Louisiana 10-2
Site:	Boone, NC (Appy St.)
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ESPN
PiRate:	Appy St. by 9.2
Mean:	Appy St. by 8.4
Bias:	Appy St. by 9.1
Predicted Score:	Appalachian St. 35
	Louisiana 26

 

 

Conference	Mid-American
East Division	Miami (O) 7-5
West Division	Central Michigan 8-4
Site:	Detroit
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ESPN 2
PiRate:	CMU by 2.0
Mean:	CMU by 3.9
Bias:	CMU by 3.1
Predicted Score:	Central Mich. 31
	Miami (O) 28

 

 

Conference	Big 12
1st Place	Oklahoma 11-1
2nd Place	Baylor 11-1
Site:	Arlington, TX
Time:	12 Noon
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Oklahoma by 5.2
Mean:	Oklahoma by 4.6
Bias:	Oklahoma by 5.4
Predicted Score:	Oklahoma 38
	Baylor 33

 

 

Conference	Conference USA
East Division	Florida Atlantic 9-3
West Division	UAB 9-3
Site:	Boca Raton, FL (FAU)
Time:	1:30 PM
TV:	CBSSN
PiRate:	FAU by 11.9
Mean:	FAU by 10.0
Bias:	FAU by 12.2
Predicted Score:	Florida Atlantic 28
	UAB 17

 

 

Conference	American Athletic
East Division	Cincinnati 10-2
West Division	Memphis 11-1
Site:	Memphis
Time:	3:30 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Memphis by 6.9
Mean:	Memphis by 7.8
Bias:	Memphis by 8.1
Predicted Score:	Memphis 35
	Cincinnati 27

 

 

Conference	Mountain West
Mountain Division	Boise St. 11-1
West Division	Hawaii 9-4
Site:	Boise, ID
Time:	4:00 PM
TV:	ESPN
PiRate:	Boise St. by 16.9
Mean:	Boise St. by 15.7
Bias:	Boise St. by 18.0
Predicted Score:	Boise St. 48
	Hawaii 31

 

 

Conference	Southeastern
East Division	Georgia 11-1
West Division	LSU 12-0
Site:	Atlanta
Time:	4:00 PM
TV:	CBS
PiRate:	LSU by 5.6
Mean:	LSU by 5.3
Bias:	LSU by 5.5
Predicted Score:	LSU 35
	Georgia 30

 

 

Conference	Atlantic Coast
Atlantic Division	Clemson 12-0
Coastal Division	Virginia 9-3
Site:	Charlotte
Time:	7:30 PM
TV:	ABC
PiRate:	Clemson by 30.2
Mean:	Clemson by 28.3
Bias:	Clemson by 30.9
Predicted Score:	Clemson 40
	Virginia 10

 

 

Conference	Big Ten
East Division	Ohio St. 12-0
West Division	Wisconsin 10-2
Site:	Indianapolis
Time:	8:00 PM
TV:	Fox
PiRate:	Ohio St. by 19.4
Mean:	Ohio St. by 18.8
Bias:	Ohio St. by 20.5
Predicted Score:	Ohio St. 44
	Wisconsin 24

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	141.9	141.1	143.0	142.0
2	Clemson	138.8	137.0	140.0	138.6
3	L S U	135.5	133.5	135.7	134.9
4	Georgia	128.4	126.7	128.7	127.9
5	Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9
6	Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
7	Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3
8	Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0
9	Oklahoma	122.9	122.4	122.5	122.6
10	Wisconsin	122.5	122.3	122.6	122.5
11	Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2
12	Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1
13	Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6
14	Oregon	119.5	119.4	120.2	119.7
15	Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8
16	Baylor	117.7	117.8	117.1	117.5
17	Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8
18	Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7
19	Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3
20	Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9
21	Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3
22	Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8
23	Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6
24	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
25	Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2
26	Memphis	110.2	110.6	111.4	110.7
27	Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3
30	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9
31	Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7
32	Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4
33	Appalachian St.	109.6	109.1	109.0	109.2
34	Virginia	108.6	108.7	109.1	108.8
35	Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6
36	T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4
37	Boise St.	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0
38	South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0
39	North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9
40	Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8
41	Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6
42	Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1
43	Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1
44	Cincinnati	105.8	105.3	105.8	105.6
45	Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5
46	SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0
47	Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5
49	Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4
50	Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9
51	California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8
52	Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9
53	Louisiana	102.9	103.2	102.4	102.8
54	Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7
55	West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5
56	Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3
57	Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2
58	BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0
59	Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8
60	Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6
61	Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5
62	Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0
63	Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0
64	Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9
65	Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7
66	Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3
67	Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2
68	Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0
69	Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0
70	Florida Atlantic	98.5	98.5	99.6	98.9
71	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
72	U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4
73	Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3
74	San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1
75	Hawaii	97.0	98.4	96.4	97.3
76	Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1
77	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9
78	Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8
79	Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9
80	Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6
81	Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4
82	Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9
83	Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1
84	Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0
85	Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9
86	Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4
87	Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9
88	Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7
89	Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7
90	Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1
91	North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
93	Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0
94	Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1
95	Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0
96	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0
97	U A B	89.1	91.0	89.9	90.0
98	Miami (Ohio)	90.3	89.2	90.4	90.0
99	Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8
100	Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3
101	Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3
102	Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3
103	Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2
104	Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1
105	South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0
106	Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9
107	San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6
108	Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3
109	Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0
110	Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7
111	Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4
112	Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9
114	North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2
115	Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4
116	U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2
117	Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0
118	Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8
119	East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8
120	New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0
121	Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3
122	South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8
123	Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8
124	New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0
125	Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4
126	Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0
127	U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6
128	Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8
129	Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6	6-2	9-3
Cincinnati	105.8	105.3	105.8	105.6	7-1	10-2
Temple	99.4	99.3	100.5	99.7	5-3	8-4
South Florida	88.8	89.3	88.9	89.0	2-6	4-8
East Carolina	82.4	83.6	82.3	82.8	1-7	4-8
Connecticut	71.3	73.9	70.8	72.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	110.2	110.6	111.4	110.7	7-1	11-1
SMU	104.8	104.7	105.4	105.0	6-2	10-2
Navy	100.3	102.6	101.6	101.5	7-1	9-2
Tulane	99.6	100.2	100.0	99.9	3-5	6-6
Houston	94.8	95.7	96.4	95.6	2-6	4-8
Tulsa	94.1	95.1	95.4	94.9	2-6	4-8
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	137.0	140.0	138.6	8-0	12-0
Florida St.	104.8	104.6	104.9	104.8	4-4	6-6
Wake Forest	103.1	102.4	103.3	102.9	4-4	8-4
Boston College	101.9	101.4	102.0	101.8	4-4	6-6
Louisville	100.2	99.8	99.9	100.0	5-3	7-5
Syracuse	99.7	98.9	98.9	99.2	2-6	5-7
North Carolina St.	92.3	91.4	91.6	91.8	1-7	4-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia Tech	110.5	110.5	111.2	110.7	5-3	8-4
Virginia	108.6	108.7	109.1	108.8	6-2	9-3
North Carolina	107.7	107.6	108.4	107.9	4-4	6-6
Miami (Fla.)	104.5	104.0	105.1	104.5	4-4	6-6
Pittsburgh	102.4	101.8	102.3	102.2	4-4	7-5
Duke	99.4	98.6	99.1	99.0	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	90.2	88.9	90.2	89.8	2-6	3-9
ACC Averages	104.6	104.0	104.7	104.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.9	122.4	122.5	122.6	8-1	11-1
Baylor	117.7	117.8	117.1	117.5	8-1	11-1
Iowa St.	112.9	113.2	112.7	112.9	5-4	7-5
Kansas St.	112.4	112.3	112.3	112.3	5-4	8-4
Texas	111.1	111.4	111.0	111.2	5-4	7-5
Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.8	109.7	110.3	5-4	8-4
T C U	107.7	109.7	107.9	108.4	3-6	5-7
Texas Tech	104.6	104.9	103.7	104.4	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	102.7	102.7	102.3	102.5	3-6	5-7
Kansas	93.7	94.7	93.8	94.1	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	110.0	109.3	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	141.9	141.1	143.0	142.0	9-0	12-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	125.9	125.3	6-3	9-3
Penn St.	121.4	120.5	121.4	121.1	7-2	10-2
Indiana	109.9	108.9	109.5	109.4	5-4	8-4
Michigan St.	107.7	106.8	106.7	107.1	4-5	6-6
Maryland	93.5	92.6	92.0	92.7	1-8	3-9
Rutgers	85.1	84.6	83.6	84.4	0-9	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	122.5	122.3	122.6	122.5	7-2	10-2
Iowa	118.4	116.9	118.0	117.8	6-3	9-3
Minnesota	117.2	116.8	116.5	116.8	7-2	10-2
Nebraska	106.3	106.5	105.6	106.1	3-6	5-7
Purdue	104.1	103.9	103.7	103.9	3-6	4-8
Northwestern	103.4	102.6	102.1	102.7	1-8	3-9
Illinois	102.2	102.8	101.8	102.3	4-5	6-6
Big Ten Averages	111.4	110.8	110.9	111.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.5	98.5	99.6	98.9	7-1	9-3
Western Kentucky	95.3	95.9	96.5	95.9	6-2	8-4
Marshall	92.0	91.7	92.5	92.1	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.1	89.0	89.3	89.1	4-4	6-6
Middle Tennessee	88.9	88.5	89.2	88.9	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	87.9	88.3	88.6	88.3	5-3	7-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.5	73.2	73.4	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	93.9	94.1	93.7	93.9	6-2	9-3
Southern Miss.	93.7	92.6	93.9	93.4	5-3	7-5
U A B	89.1	91.0	89.9	90.0	6-2	9-3
North Texas	86.3	86.0	86.2	86.2	3-5	4-8
Rice	82.4	83.7	82.4	82.8	3-5	3-9
Texas-San Antonio	76.1	77.9	76.5	76.8	3-5	4-8
U T E P	68.5	71.8	68.6	69.6	0-8	1-11
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.8	119.9	121.0	120.6	x	10-2
BYU	102.1	102.3	101.6	102.0	x	7-5
Army	94.1	94.3	93.4	94.0	x	5-7
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.8	90.0	x	7-5
New Mexico St.	75.6	77.3	75.2	76.0	x	2-10
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9	x	1-11
Indep. Averages	89.8	90.5	89.4	89.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	98.4	97.6	98.9	98.3	5-3	6-6
Buffalo	94.8	95.4	96.2	95.4	5-3	7-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.3	89.2	90.4	90.0	6-2	7-5
Kent St.	89.0	89.1	89.8	89.3	5-3	6-6
Bowling Green	68.1	67.5	67.8	67.8	2-6	3-9
Akron	62.8	62.5	61.7	62.3	0-8	0-12
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.6	96.6	97.1	97.1	5-3	7-5
Central Michigan	92.3	93.1	93.5	92.9	6-2	8-4
Ball St.	91.0	90.7	91.2	91.0	4-4	5-7
Eastern Michigan	87.8	88.0	88.2	88.0	3-5	6-6
Northern Illinois	87.5	86.9	87.8	87.4	4-4	5-7
Toledo	84.0	83.9	84.1	84.0	3-5	6-6
MAC Averages	87.0	86.7	87.2	87.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	107.9	108.2	108.0	108.0	8-0	11-1
Air Force	104.6	106.4	105.6	105.5	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	98.6	100.3	98.9	99.3	4-4	7-5
Utah St.	96.8	96.5	97.1	96.8	6-2	7-5
Colorado St.	88.0	91.2	88.7	89.3	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	79.7	81.7	78.6	80.0	0-8	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.2	97.6	98.1	5-3	9-3
Hawaii	97.0	98.4	96.4	97.3	5-3	9-4
Fresno St.	92.4	93.4	92.2	92.7	2-6	4-8
Nevada	89.8	91.3	89.1	90.1	4-4	7-5
San Jose St.	87.9	89.7	88.1	88.6	2-6	5-7
U N L V	83.7	85.4	83.5	84.2	2-6	4-8
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.6	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	119.5	119.4	120.2	119.7	8-1	10-2
Washington	113.1	112.8	114.0	113.3	4-5	7-5
Washington St.	110.0	109.2	110.0	109.7	3-6	6-6
California	103.7	103.5	104.2	103.8	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	101.2	102.1	101.5	101.6	4-5	5-7
Stanford	101.6	100.6	100.8	101.0	3-6	4-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7	8-1	11-1
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5	7-2	8-4
Arizona St.	107.9	107.3	108.1	107.8	4-5	7-5
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6	3-6	5-7
U C L A	98.7	98.3	98.2	98.4	4-5	4-8
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.8	96.9	2-7	4-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	107.2	107.7	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.4	126.7	128.7	127.9	7-1	11-1
Florida	125.9	123.5	125.8	125.0	6-2	10-2
Kentucky	112.4	111.3	111.6	111.8	3-5	7-5
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4	5-3	7-5
Missouri	109.9	107.5	108.5	108.6	3-5	6-6
South Carolina	109.0	107.1	108.0	108.0	3-5	4-8
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	135.5	133.5	135.7	134.9	8-0	12-0
Alabama	128.8	125.7	129.1	127.9	6-2	10-2
Auburn	122.9	121.1	122.7	122.2	5-3	9-3
Texas A&M	115.1	112.5	113.3	113.7	4-4	7-5
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.6	113.3	109.9	3-5	6-6
Ole Miss	107.8	106.9	108.1	107.6	2-6	4-8
Arkansas	88.0	87.8	87.3	87.7	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.1	112.2	113.8	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	109.6	109.1	109.0	109.2	7-1	11-1
Georgia Southern	99.0	99.1	98.7	99.0	5-3	7-5
Georgia St.	89.3	90.1	88.4	89.3	4-4	7-5
Troy	89.6	89.8	88.1	89.2	3-5	5-7
Coastal Carolina	86.9	87.8	86.3	87.0	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.9	103.2	102.4	102.8	7-1	10-2
Arkansas St.	90.0	90.4	89.7	90.0	5-3	7-5
Louisiana-Monroe	86.7	87.4	86.4	86.9	4-4	5-7
Texas St.	79.2	79.9	78.9	79.3	2-6	3-9
South Alabama	77.0	79.5	77.0	77.8	1-7	2-10
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.1

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.4
2	Big Ten	111.0
3	Big 12	109.6
4	Pac-12	107.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.4
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.2
8	Sun Belt	91.1
9	Independents	89.9
10	Conference USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.0

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Oklahoma

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Boise St.
3	Appalachian St.
4	Cincinnati
5	Louisiana

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

One is the loneliest team that you’ll ever know–79 Bowl Eligible Teams For 78 Spots

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Louisiana Tech]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Air Force
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Miami (O)
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Western Kentucky	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	North Carolina	[Florida Int’l.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Florida St.	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Michigan
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	[Liberty]	[Nevada]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Memphis
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Southern Miss.	[Kent St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	Kentucky	Indiana
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia	Alabama
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Marshall]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	Mississippi St.
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Louisville
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Ohio]	Wyoming
Lending Tree	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Utah
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 24, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Ohio	-27.7	-27.1	-29.3
Northern Illinois	Western Michigan	-9.4	-9.2	-9.0
Thursday	November 28
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	3.7	1.2	7.5
Friday	November 29
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas	Missouri	-20.0	-17.5	-19.7
Ball St.	Miami (O)	1.4	2.0	1.1
Buffalo	Bowling Green	27.4	28.6	29.1
Central Florida	South Florida	24.1	22.7	24.1
Central Michigan	Toledo	5.0	5.7	5.7
Colorado St.	Boise St.	-18.1	-15.0	-18.0
Eastern Michigan	Kent St.	3.3	3.6	3.3
Memphis	Cincinnati	7.2	7.9	8.2
Nebraska	Iowa	-9.5	-7.8	-10.2
South Alabama	Arkansas St.	-13.9	-11.7	-14.0
TCU	West Virginia	10.3	12.6	11.2
Texas	Texas Tech	6.6	6.5	7.0
Troy	Appalachian St.	-13.8	-12.7	-14.5
Virginia	Virginia Tech	-1.7	-1.8	-2.5
Washington	Washington St.	2.2	2.4	2.6
Saturday	November 30
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Wyoming	7.8	7.7	8.3
Arizona St.	Arizona	12.6	12.5	13.6
Auburn	Alabama	-5.0	-3.7	-5.9
Coastal Carolina	Texas St.	10.9	11.6	11.3
Duke	Miami (Fla.)	-4.6	-5.0	-6.1
East Carolina	Tulsa	-6.6	-5.9	-7.9
Florida	Florida St.	22.5	20.0	22.1
Florida Atlantic	Southern Miss.	6.6	7.7	7.3
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	7.3	6.2	7.5
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-34.6	-34.0	-34.5
Hawaii	Army	4.6	5.7	4.3
Houston	Navy	0.9	-0.5	1.8
Illinois	Northwestern	4.6	6.4	6.1
Kansas	Baylor	-14.0	-13.1	-13.3
Kansas St.	Iowa St.	-0.4	-1.2	-0.7
Kentucky	Louisville	9.2	8.1	8.1
Liberty	New Mexico St.	16.5	15.7	16.8
Louisiana	UL-Monroe	19.5	19.3	19.7
Louisiana Tech	Texas-San Antonio	20.7	19.1	20.5
LSU	Texas A&M	16.0	15.2	16.6
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	6.3	6.3	7.2
Michigan	Ohio St.	-9.6	-9.9	-10.1
Michigan St.	Maryland	18.6	18.8	19.7
Minnesota	Wisconsin	1.3	1.3	0.9
Nevada	UNLV	8.8	8.8	8.7
New Mexico	Utah St.	-14.8	-12.0	-16.7
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-10.4	-11.2	-11.6
North Texas	UAB	0.3	-2.1	-0.4
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	-10.2	-8.8	-10.0
Old Dominion	Charlotte	-12.0	-12.2	-12.6
Oregon	Oregon St.	20.2	19.2	21.2
Penn St.	Rutgers	42.0	41.6	43.5
Pittsburgh	Boston College	5.9	6.0	6.1
Purdue	Indiana	-4.7	-3.9	-5.1
San Diego St.	BYU	-2.5	-1.0	-2.4
San Jose St.	Fresno St.	-3.4	-2.6	-3.4
SMU	Tulane	6.7	5.9	6.5
South Carolina	Clemson	-27.0	-26.9	-29.2
Stanford	Notre Dame	-15.5	-15.4	-16.3
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-0.6	-0.7	-1.8
Temple	Connecticut	30.4	27.2	32.2
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	19.4	20.7	20.4
UCLA	California	-1.9	-1.9	-2.7
Utah	Colorado	31.2	30.4	31.8
UTEP	Rice	-12.2	-9.6	-11.5
Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	8.1	9.5	9.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	139.8	138.9	140.7	139.8
2	Clemson	138.0	136.1	139.2	137.8
3	L S U	131.3	129.1	131.3	130.6
4	Alabama	129.1	126.0	129.6	128.2
5	Michigan	127.2	126.0	127.7	127.0
6	Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
7	Georgia	127.2	125.4	127.3	126.6
8	Florida	125.9	123.3	125.7	124.9
9	Penn St.	123.5	122.6	123.5	123.2
10	Oklahoma	122.3	121.6	121.7	121.9
11	Auburn	122.6	120.8	122.2	121.9
12	Wisconsin	120.7	120.4	120.6	120.6
13	Oregon	119.7	119.6	120.7	120.0
14	Notre Dame	120.3	119.3	120.4	120.0
15	Minnesota	119.0	118.7	118.5	118.7
16	Iowa	118.6	117.1	118.4	118.0
17	Texas A&M	118.3	116.9	117.7	117.7
18	Iowa St.	114.2	114.7	114.2	114.3
19	Baylor	113.7	113.8	113.1	113.5
20	Washington	112.0	111.6	112.7	112.1
21	Virginia Tech	111.3	111.4	112.3	111.7
22	U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
23	Central Florida	111.5	110.8	111.8	111.4
24	Washington St.	111.4	110.7	111.6	111.2
25	Oklahoma St.	110.6	111.3	110.2	110.7
26	Kansas St.	110.8	110.5	110.5	110.6
27	Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.2	110.6
28	Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
29	Mississippi St.	109.9	106.6	113.7	110.1
30	Texas	109.9	110.1	109.6	109.9
31	Indiana	110.1	109.1	109.9	109.7
32	T C U	108.8	111.0	109.2	109.7
33	Kentucky	110.0	108.7	108.9	109.2
34	Missouri	110.2	107.7	109.0	109.0
35	Boise St.	108.5	108.7	108.8	108.7
36	South Carolina	109.5	107.7	108.5	108.6
37	Michigan St.	108.9	108.1	108.2	108.4
38	Virginia	108.1	108.1	108.3	108.2
39	Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.5	108.0
40	Ole Miss	107.7	106.9	107.7	107.4
41	Appalachian St.	107.5	106.8	106.8	107.0
42	North Carolina	106.1	106.0	106.7	106.3
43	Miami (Fla.)	106.0	105.6	106.9	106.2
44	Nebraska	106.1	106.3	105.2	105.9
45	Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.0	105.8
46	Texas Tech	105.8	106.2	105.1	105.7
47	Air Force	104.1	105.8	105.0	105.0
48	Florida St.	104.8	104.8	105.0	104.9
49	Illinois	104.6	105.4	104.5	104.8
50	SMU	104.3	104.1	104.7	104.4
51	Louisiana	103.8	104.2	103.5	103.8
52	Purdue	103.9	103.7	103.3	103.6
53	Pittsburgh	103.6	103.1	103.7	103.5
54	California	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
55	Wake Forest	103.2	102.5	103.5	103.1
56	BYU	102.6	102.8	102.3	102.6
57	Louisville	102.3	102.1	102.3	102.2
58	West Virginia	101.6	101.4	101.0	101.3
59	Oregon St.	101.0	101.9	101.0	101.3
60	Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.1	101.3
61	Northwestern	101.5	100.5	99.9	100.7
62	Tulane	100.1	100.8	100.7	100.5
63	Boston College	100.7	100.1	100.6	100.5
64	Navy	98.6	100.9	99.6	99.7
65	Temple	99.3	99.0	100.5	99.6
66	Wyoming	98.8	100.6	99.2	99.5
67	Syracuse	99.6	98.8	98.7	99.0
68	U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8
69	Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
70	Florida Atlantic	97.9	97.9	98.9	98.2
71	Western Michigan	98.5	97.6	98.2	98.1
72	Duke	98.4	97.5	97.8	97.9
73	San Diego St.	97.1	98.7	96.9	97.6
74	Houston	96.5	97.4	98.4	97.4
75	Kansas	96.7	97.7	96.8	97.1
76	Utah St.	96.9	96.4	97.5	96.9
77	Arizona	96.9	96.6	96.4	96.6
78	Georgia Southern	96.7	96.6	96.2	96.5
79	Western Kentucky	95.4	96.2	96.9	96.2
80	Ohio	95.9	95.1	96.4	95.8
81	Hawaii	95.6	97.0	94.8	95.8
82	Army	95.5	95.7	95.0	95.4
83	Buffalo	93.7	94.3	95.1	94.3
84	Louisiana Tech	94.1	94.3	94.1	94.1
85	Southern Miss.	94.3	93.2	94.6	94.0
86	North Carolina St.	94.2	93.3	93.6	93.7
87	Tulsa	92.8	93.6	94.0	93.5
88	Fresno St.	92.6	93.6	92.6	92.9
89	Marshall	92.2	92.0	93.0	92.4
90	Maryland	93.3	92.3	91.5	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.7	92.1	91.6	91.8
92	Vanderbilt	92.8	91.2	91.2	91.7
93	Georgia St.	90.9	91.9	90.2	91.0
94	Miami (Ohio)	91.2	90.2	91.5	91.0
95	Troy	91.2	91.6	89.8	90.9
96	Georgia Tech	91.1	89.9	91.3	90.8
97	Nevada	90.4	92.0	89.9	90.8
98	Ball St.	90.1	89.7	90.1	90.0
99	Central Michigan	89.2	89.9	90.2	89.7
100	U A B	88.8	90.8	89.5	89.7
101	Liberty	89.3	90.4	89.4	89.7
102	South Florida	88.9	89.6	89.2	89.2
103	Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.1	89.4	89.1
104	Florida Int’l.	88.9	88.7	88.8	88.8
105	Colorado St.	87.4	90.7	87.9	88.7
106	Middle Tennessee	88.8	88.2	88.8	88.6
107	San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
108	Kent St.	88.0	88.0	88.6	88.2
109	Charlotte	87.7	88.0	88.2	88.0
110	Coastal Carolina	87.3	88.4	87.0	87.6
111	Arkansas	87.7	87.6	86.8	87.4
112	Toledo	86.7	86.7	87.0	86.8
113	North Texas	86.6	86.2	86.6	86.5
114	Northern Illinois	86.6	85.9	86.7	86.4
115	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.3	85.9
116	East Carolina	83.7	85.1	83.7	84.2
117	Rutgers	84.5	84.0	83.0	83.8
118	U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
119	Rice	82.3	83.3	82.0	82.5
120	New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
121	Texas St.	78.8	79.3	78.2	78.8
122	Texas-San Antonio	75.9	77.7	76.1	76.5
123	New Mexico St.	75.8	77.7	75.6	76.3
124	South Alabama	75.3	77.8	75.1	76.1
125	Old Dominion	73.7	73.8	73.6	73.7
126	Connecticut	71.4	74.2	70.8	72.1
127	U T E P	68.6	72.2	69.0	69.9
128	Bowling Green	69.2	68.6	68.9	68.9
129	Akron	66.8	66.5	65.7	66.3
130	Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	111.5	110.8	111.8	111.4
Cincinnati	105.9	105.5	106.0	105.8
Temple	99.3	99.0	100.5	99.6
South Florida	88.9	89.6	89.2	89.2
East Carolina	83.7	85.1	83.7	84.2
Connecticut	71.4	74.2	70.8	72.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	110.1	110.4	111.2	110.6
SMU	104.3	104.1	104.7	104.4
Tulane	100.1	100.8	100.7	100.5
Navy	98.6	100.9	99.6	99.7
Houston	96.5	97.4	98.4	97.4
Tulsa	92.8	93.6	94.0	93.5
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	138.0	136.1	139.2	137.8
Florida St.	104.8	104.8	105.0	104.9
Wake Forest	103.2	102.5	103.5	103.1
Louisville	102.3	102.1	102.3	102.2
Boston College	100.7	100.1	100.6	100.5
Syracuse	99.6	98.8	98.7	99.0
North Carolina St.	94.2	93.3	93.6	93.7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	111.3	111.4	112.3	111.7
Virginia	108.1	108.1	108.3	108.2
North Carolina	106.1	106.0	106.7	106.3
Miami (Fla.)	106.0	105.6	106.9	106.2
Pittsburgh	103.6	103.1	103.7	103.5
Duke	98.4	97.5	97.8	97.9
Georgia Tech	91.1	89.9	91.3	90.8
ACC Averages	104.8	104.2	105.0	104.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	122.3	121.6	121.7	121.9
Iowa St.	114.2	114.7	114.2	114.3
Baylor	113.7	113.8	113.1	113.5
Oklahoma St.	110.6	111.3	110.2	110.7
Kansas St.	110.8	110.5	110.5	110.6
Texas	109.9	110.1	109.6	109.9
T C U	108.8	111.0	109.2	109.7
Texas Tech	105.8	106.2	105.1	105.7
West Virginia	101.6	101.4	101.0	101.3
Kansas	96.7	97.7	96.8	97.1
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	139.8	138.9	140.7	139.8
Michigan	127.2	126.0	127.7	127.0
Penn St.	123.5	122.6	123.5	123.2
Indiana	110.1	109.1	109.9	109.7
Michigan St.	108.9	108.1	108.2	108.4
Maryland	93.3	92.3	91.5	92.4
Rutgers	84.5	84.0	83.0	83.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	120.7	120.4	120.6	120.6
Minnesota	119.0	118.7	118.5	118.7
Iowa	118.6	117.1	118.4	118.0
Nebraska	106.1	106.3	105.2	105.9
Illinois	104.6	105.4	104.5	104.8
Purdue	103.9	103.7	103.3	103.6
Northwestern	101.5	100.5	99.9	100.7
Big Ten Averages	111.6	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	97.9	97.9	98.9	98.2
Western Kentucky	95.4	96.2	96.9	96.2
Marshall	92.2	92.0	93.0	92.4
Florida Int’l.	88.9	88.7	88.8	88.8
Middle Tennessee	88.8	88.2	88.8	88.6
Charlotte	87.7	88.0	88.2	88.0
Old Dominion	73.7	73.8	73.6	73.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	94.1	94.3	94.1	94.1
Southern Miss.	94.3	93.2	94.6	94.0
U A B	88.8	90.8	89.5	89.7
North Texas	86.6	86.2	86.6	86.5
Rice	82.3	83.3	82.0	82.5
Texas-San Antonio	75.9	77.7	76.1	76.5
U T E P	68.6	72.2	69.0	69.9
CUSA Averages	86.8	87.3	87.2	87.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	120.3	119.3	120.4	120.0
BYU	102.6	102.8	102.3	102.6
Army	95.5	95.7	95.0	95.4
Liberty	89.3	90.4	89.4	89.7
New Mexico St.	75.8	77.7	75.6	76.3
Massachusetts	56.7	58.2	55.7	56.9
Indep. Averages	90.0	90.7	89.7	90.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	95.9	95.1	96.4	95.8
Buffalo	93.7	94.3	95.1	94.3
Miami (Ohio)	91.2	90.2	91.5	91.0
Kent St.	88.0	88.0	88.6	88.2
Bowling Green	69.2	68.6	68.9	68.9
Akron	66.8	66.5	65.7	66.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	98.5	97.6	98.2	98.1
Ball St.	90.1	89.7	90.1	90.0
Central Michigan	89.2	89.9	90.2	89.7
Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.1	89.4	89.1
Toledo	86.7	86.7	87.0	86.8
Northern Illinois	86.6	85.9	86.7	86.4
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.3	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	108.5	108.7	108.8	108.7
Air Force	104.1	105.8	105.0	105.0
Wyoming	98.8	100.6	99.2	99.5
Utah St.	96.9	96.4	97.5	96.9
Colorado St.	87.4	90.7	87.9	88.7
New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	97.1	98.7	96.9	97.6
Hawaii	95.6	97.0	94.8	95.8
Fresno St.	92.6	93.6	92.6	92.9
Nevada	90.4	92.0	89.9	90.8
San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.4	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	119.7	119.6	120.7	120.0
Washington	112.0	111.6	112.7	112.1
Washington St.	111.4	110.7	111.6	111.2
California	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
Oregon St.	101.0	101.9	101.0	101.3
Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.1	101.3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	126.8	125.9	127.5	126.7
U S C	111.0	111.6	111.8	111.5
Arizona St.	108.0	107.5	108.5	108.0
U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.6	98.8
Colorado	98.6	98.5	98.7	98.6
Arizona	96.9	96.6	96.4	96.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	107.2	107.7	107.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	127.2	125.4	127.3	126.6
Florida	125.9	123.3	125.7	124.9
Tennessee	110.7	110.4	110.1	110.4
Kentucky	110.0	108.7	108.9	109.2
Missouri	110.2	107.7	109.0	109.0
South Carolina	109.5	107.7	108.5	108.6
Vanderbilt	92.8	91.2	91.2	91.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
L S U	131.3	129.1	131.3	130.6
Alabama	129.1	126.0	129.6	128.2
Auburn	122.6	120.8	122.2	121.9
Texas A&M	118.3	116.9	117.7	117.7
Mississippi St.	109.9	106.6	113.7	110.1
Ole Miss	107.7	106.9	107.7	107.4
Arkansas	87.7	87.6	86.8	87.4
SEC Averages	113.8	112.0	113.5	113.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	107.5	106.8	106.8	107.0
Georgia Southern	96.7	96.6	96.2	96.5
Georgia St.	90.9	91.9	90.2	91.0
Troy	91.2	91.6	89.8	90.9
Coastal Carolina	87.3	88.4	87.0	87.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	103.8	104.2	103.5	103.8
Arkansas St.	91.7	92.1	91.6	91.8
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.3	85.9
Texas St.	78.8	79.3	78.2	78.8
South Alabama	75.3	77.8	75.1	76.1
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.4	90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.1
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Pac-12	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	104.7
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.1
10	Conf. USA	87.1
11	Mid-American	87.1

 

 

PiRate Guess at Top 6
1	Ohio St.
2	LSU
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Appalachian St.
5	Navy

 

The Conference Races

With one week to go before conference championship week, there are still some conference division races yet to be clinched. Here at PiRate Central, we will make it easy for you.

American Athletic Conference

Cincinnati has clinched the East Division, no matter what they do at Memphis.

Memphis clinches the West Division, if they beat Cincinnati, or Navy loses to Houston.

The winner of this week’s Cincinnati – Memphis game will host the AAC Championship Game.

Atlantic Coast

Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division.

The winner of this week’s Virginia – Virginia Tech game wins the Coastal Division. 

If Clemson beats Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia Tech has about a 95% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

If Clemson beats Virginia in the ACC Championship Game, Virginia has about an 80% chance of getting the Orange Bowl bid.

Should Clemson be upset in the ACC Championship Game, either Virginia or Virginia Tech would get the Orange Bowl bid, and Clemson would likely knock out a team from the Southwest or West for the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big 12

Oklahoma and Baylor have already clinched the top two spots and will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Baylor beats Kansas, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then BU will be the top seed. Under any other scenario, Oklahoma will be the top seed.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and Baylor, the Sooners have a 30% chance of making it to the Playoffs, and at worst would be the Sugar Bowl representative for the league.

If Baylor beats Kansas and Oklahoma, there is only a 5% chance that BU would make the playoffs.

If the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game has two losses, that team has a 70% chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State has already clinched the East Division title even if Michigan upsets them in the Big House like they did in the big upset 50 years ago.

The winner of the Minnesota-Wisconsin game wins the West Division and has a better than 50-50 chance to earn the Rose Bowl bid if they lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If Minnesota beats a 12-0 Ohio State team in the Big Ten Championship, the Gophers have a 30% chance to earn a Playoff bid.

Conference USA

This is the most difficult tie-breaker with one week to go, as both divisions are still up for grabs.

In the East, Florida Atlantic has a one-game lead over Marshall and Western Kentucky, but WKU has been eliminated from the race.

If FAU beats Southern Miss, or Marshall loses to Florida International, then FAU wins the division and hosts the CUSA Championship Game.

If FAU loses to Southern Miss, and Marshall beats FIU, then Marshall wins the East and has a chance to host the CUSA Championship Game.

In the West, there is currently a three-way tie with multiple possible outcomes.
Southern Miss plays Florida Atlantic in the key game. Louisiana Tech plays UTSA, and UAB plays North Texas.

If all three West co-leaders win or they all lose, Southern Miss will win the tiebreaker.

If Southern Miss loses and UAB wins, then UAB wins the West.

If Louisiana Tech wins and Southern Miss loses, then Louisiana Tech wins the division even if Southern Miss beats FAU.

If Southern Miss beats FAU and Louisiana Tech loses to UTSA, then Southern Miss wins the West even if UAB beats North Texas.

All five teams still alive can host the CUSA Championship Game based on a myriad of tiebreakers between multiple teams with 6-2 league records.

Independents (Not Including Notre Dame)

BYU has clinched the Hawaii Bowl Bid.

Liberty is bowl eligible

 

Mid-American

Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division.

Western Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Northern Illinois OR a loss by Central Michigan to Toledo.

Central Michigan will clinch the West Division with a win over Toledo AND a loss by Western Michigan.

Mountain West

Boise State has already clinched the Mountain Division Championship and has clinched the home field for the Championship Game.

Hawaii has already clinched the West Division Championship and will play at Boise State in the Championship Game.

Boise State still has a chance to make the Cotton Bowl by winning out, while the AAC champion has two overall losses.

Pac-12

Even after a disappointing upset loss to Arizona State, Oregon has already clinched the North Division Championship and still has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl with a slight chance to go to the Cotton Bowl.

Utah will win the South by beating a Colorado team that will be playing for bowl eligibility when the Buffs visit Salt Lake City. Should Utah lose this game, USC will win the South Division Championship.

Utah still has a less than 50-50 chance to make the Playoffs by beating Colorado and Oregon, but the Utes are most likely looking at a Rose Bowl bid. Should they lose to Oregon, Utah still has a 50-50 shot at the Cotton Bowl.

Southeastern

The SEC Championship Game is set between LSU and Georgia. See the feature below on sleuthing the SEC Bowl Tie-Ins and all the open spots.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State will play Louisiana in the Sun Belt Championship Game.

If both teams win this week or both teams lose, Appy State will be the host team based on their regular season win over the Ragin’ Cajuns. UL can only host if Appy State loses to Troy, while Louisiana beats UL-Monroe.

Appalachian State still has a minute chance to earn the Cotton Bowl bid. The Mountaineers must win out; Boise State must lose to Hawaii; and the AAC Champion must have two losses.

————————————–

The SEC Bowl Issue

With the possibility that two SEC teams will make the Playoffs, and then two more will earn New Year’s Six Bowl Games (Sugar and Orange), there is a chance that as many as five SEC tie-in bowls will not have bowl eligible SEC teams and will have to look elsewhere for at-large teams.

Two issues will affect the final week of the regular season. Currently, there are just eight bowl eligible teams–Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky in the East and LSU, Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in the West.

Mississippi State and Missouri can become bowl eligible with wins this week. Missouri has a much easier final regular season game against 0-7 Arkansas, while Mississippi State must beat rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Missouri can also be eliminated if the NCAA rules negatively on an appeal between tomorrow and December 8.

The PiRates are old buckaroos, so we know that politics play a part in decisions. The SEC has no doubt twisted the NCAA’s arm to not decide on Missouri’s appeal until after the bowls have been played. The SEC needs as many bowl eligible teams as possible.

We wouldn’t be totally surprised if all the close calls in the Egg Bowl go in favor of Mississippi State. If the game is called without any bias, we actually believe Ole Miss is playing better football at this point of the season.

Being that the law of averages tends to side on the side of a split with two 5-6 teams playing to get to 6-6, we will say that one team makes it. For argument purposes, we will award Missouri the 6-6 record and Ole Miss the Egg Bowl Trophy.

At this point, there would be nine SEC Bowl Eligible teams.

Let’s say that LSU wins out and takes one Playoff spot, while Alabama beats Auburn and gets Playoff spot number two–once again politics playing a large part as the Committee can always come up with a reason to include a one-loss Tide team even if the entire first team is out with injuries.

Now, let’s slot Georgia into the Sugar Bowl and Florida into the Orange Bowl. That’s four teams with just five bowl eligible teams left.

The Citrus Bowl gets the next best team, and Auburn would be the logical choice here.

The Independence and Birmingham Bowls can already start looking for at-large teams at this point, as they are the bottom two in the contractual agreement.

That leaves the Outback, Gator, Texas, Belk, Music City, and Liberty Bowls hoping to get Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Texas A&M. Six bowls and four teams mean that two will be left at the conference altar.

The Outback and Gator Bowls are New Year’s Day Bowls. The SEC isn’t about to allow a 7-5 or 6-6 at-large team from 1,000-2,000 miles away take one of these prized spots. Put Tennessee in the Outback and Kentucky in the Gator.

With Texas A&M still available, it is obvious which bowl would be best for all. The Aggies would head to Houston to play in the Texas Bowl, which sort of has a gentleman’s agreement to get a better draw this year after taking Vanderbilt last year. A Texas A&M-Texas game could be arranged for the Texas Bowl, and it would be a sellout with tickets getting scalped.

That leaves Missouri as the last bowl team. Missouri played in the Liberty Bowl last year, so they would not return to Memphis. The Tigers already played in Nashville against Vanderbilt, and even though Nashville is the hottest destination in the South if not the entire nation, I don’t see the Music City Bowl getting an opportunity to invite the Tigers for their second trip of the season. Put Missouri in the Belk Bowl.

This would leave the Music City and Liberty Bowls out in the cold as the two bowls that would have to find at-large opponents. There will be extra Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American teams that are bowl eligible. The ACC could send Virginia, Wake Forest, or Louisville to Nashville, while the Big 12 could send Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, or TCU to the Liberty Bowl. We believe that Kansas State or Iowa State is the most likely team to go to Memphis.

If the Mountain West has extra teams, there is a chance that the league would arrange for one of their better teams to come Southeast to one of the two Volunteer State bowls. Air Force, San Diego State, or Utah State might be where the Liberty Bowl can look.

The Music City Bowl will then likely need a Mid-American Conference team, and likewise, a deal could be struck with the MAC to send a 6-6 team to a regular contracted bowl, while bringing the MAC Champion to Nashville. The organizers of the Music City Bowl would probably like to pay Tom Brady to suit up for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note:  This Section Has Been Edited Late Sunday Night.  It was brought to our attention that the Hawaii Bowl slightly changes their tie-ins.  We originally had this bowl featuring BYU if they were bowl eligible or a Mountain West team or basically a Bowl Eligible Hawaii team versus a team from the American Athletic Conference.  The bowl changed to BYU if bowl eligible versus either an AAC or Mountain West team, but if Hawaii is bowl eligible and not the MWC Champion, then Hawaii gets this bid.

Thus, it started a chain reaction where we had to move about 20 teams from one bowl to another.  Here is the latest version of our Bowl Projections.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Charlotte
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[UAB]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Miami (O)
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC/MWC	BYU	Hawaii
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Marshall]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	[Nevada]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Utah
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Western Ky.	TCU
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Central Michigan]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Missouri
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Liberty]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	Air Force
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Florida Int’l.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Utah St.
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Georgia	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Georgia	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 21-25, 2019

A Narrow Positive

We told you last week that the third week in November had historically been our most successful wagering week of the 21st Century.  Hopefully, this wasn’t a peak, but our selections did turn a small profit yet again on this favorable week of the season.

As far as the fourth week of November, our results over the last several years have been mixed.  Since this is a 5-Saturday November, the typical end of season rivalry games will be next week, so we are hoping that this week will be more typical of past third weeks.

Are you confused?  You shouldn’t be, because in the end, we highly encourage you not to wager based on any information you read here.  You pay nothing for these selections, so you should wager nothing on them.

This week our regular PiRate Picks will go big or go  home.  We are going with parlays that return big odds, and if we can win half of the  parlays, it will be a windfall imaginary profit.

We are also going to take our first 7-point, 3-game NFL Parlay of the season at 7-5 odds.

As for the Davey19 experimental system, we have seven selections against the spread.  Davey19 has been a somewhat positive experiment this year, and last week was another good one as the picks went 4-2-1.  It is experimental, so we cannot vouch for its continued success.  It is strictly mechanical and does not take into consideration the weather forecast and any injury news that came out after Monday’s PiRate Ratings were published.

 

PiRate Picks

Money Line Parlays

 

#1. 3-games at +219

USC over UCLA

UL-Monroe over Coastal Carolina

Stanford over California

 

 

#2. 4-games at +307

Michigan over Indiana

North Texas over Rice

San Jose St. over UNLV

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

 

 

#3. 5-games at +297

Oklahoma St. over West Virginia

Wake Forest over Duke

Louisville over Syracuse

Georgia St. over South Alabama

Georgia over Texas A&M

 

 

#4. 4-NFL games at +435

Houston over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Denver

Oakland over N.Y. Jets

New England over Dallas

 

 

#5. 3-Game, 7-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Indianapolis	10.5	Indianapolis
New Orleans	Carolina	1.5	New Orleans
Dallas	New England	0.5	New England

 

 

Davey19 Picks

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wyoming	Colorado St.	6.5	Wyoming
Iowa	Illinois	15.5	Illinois
Ball St.	Kent St.	3.5	Kent St.
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	4	Virginia Tech
Nebraska	Maryland	4.5	Nebraska
Missouri	Tennessee	4	Tennessee
Fresno St.	Nevada	14	Nevada

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	Ohio	-19.2	-18.6	-19.6
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	7.8	7.0	7.7
Wednesday	November 20
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Toledo	7.2	7.6	7.9
Miami (O)	Akron	28.6	27.9	30.7
Thursday	November 21
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Tech	North Carolina St.	-1.4	-2.0	-0.8
Friday	November 22
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wyoming	Colorado St.	13.6	12.2	13.5
Saturday	November 23
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Texas St.	32.6	31.4	33.0
Arizona	Utah	-26.6	-25.9	-27.9
Arizona St.	Oregon	-12.5	-13.4	-13.7
Arkansas St.	Georgia Southern	-3.2	-3.0	-3.3
Baylor	Texas	4.9	4.7	4.3
Charlotte	Marshall	-5.1	-4.4	-5.6
Cincinnati	Temple	10.3	10.4	9.5
Colorado	Washington	-14.7	-14.5	-15.9
Connecticut	East Carolina	-10.7	-9.3	-12.1
Florida Int’l.	Miami (Fla.)	-21.9	-21.8	-23.4
Fresno St.	Nevada	9.6	8.9	10.1
Georgia	Texas A&M	12.9	12.8	14.3
Georgia St.	South Alabama	18.7	17.2	18.5
Hawaii	San Diego St.	1.8	1.5	1.0
Indiana	Michigan	-11.4	-10.9	-11.7
Iowa	Illinois	17.8	15.2	18.0
Iowa St.	Kansas	22.7	22.2	23.3
Kent St.	Ball St.	0.0	0.4	0.5
Louisiana	Troy	9.2	8.9	9.8
Louisville	Syracuse	0.9	1.5	1.6
LSU	Arkansas	47.1	45.0	48.0
Maryland	Nebraska	-2.8	-4.4	-3.4
Massachusetts	BYU	-43.3	-42.0	-44.6
Middle Tennessee	Old Dominion	17.3	16.1	16.8
Missouri	Tennessee	3.4	1.0	3.2
Navy	SMU	-4.8	-2.2	-4.6
New Mexico	Air Force	-22.0	-21.4	-24.2
New Mexico St.	UTEP	8.7	6.8	8.1
Northwestern	Minnesota	-14.6	-15.4	-16.0
Notre Dame	Boston College	19.4	18.6	19.2
Ohio St.	Penn St.	19.8	20.0	21.3
Oklahoma	TCU	18.4	15.3	17.6
Rice	North Texas	-4.9	-3.6	-5.7
Rutgers	Michigan St.	-21.5	-20.8	-21.9
South Florida	Memphis	-13.6	-12.8	-14.3
Southern Miss.	Western Kentucky	6.8	4.8	5.6
Stanford	California	0.0	-0.6	-1.0
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	-1.6	-1.1	-2.3
Tulane	Central Florida	-9.5	-8.1	-9.6
Tulsa	Houston	0.6	0.7	0.1
UAB	Louisiana Tech	-4.4	-2.6	-4.1
UL-Monroe	Coastal Carolina	1.4	0.5	0.9
UNLV	San Jose St.	-2.5	-3.0	-3.3
USC	UCLA	12.2	12.9	13.2
Utah St.	Boise St.	-3.6	-4.3	-2.9
UTSA	Florida Atlantic	-19.8	-18.1	-21.3
Virginia	Liberty	18.6	17.4	18.3
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	5.0	5.3	5.6
Wake Forest	Duke	6.2	6.2	6.5
Washington St.	Oregon St.	15.1	13.3	15.7
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	-5.8	-6.7	-6.0
Wisconsin	Purdue	19.5	19.4	20.0

 

FBS vs.	FCS	PiRate
Alabama	Western Carolina	56
Auburn	Samford	49
Kentucky	UT-Martin	29
Mississippi St.	Abilene Christian	35
North Carolina	Mercer	38
Vanderbilt	East Tennessee	21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	140.0	139.2	141.3	140.2
2	Clemson	137.6	135.7	138.9	137.4
3	L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8
4	Alabama	128.9	125.7	129.4	128.0
5	Georgia	127.9	126.2	128.3	127.5
6	Utah	126.6	125.6	127.5	126.6
7	Michigan	125.6	124.3	126.0	125.3
8	Florida	125.6	123.0	125.4	124.6
9	Penn St.	123.2	122.2	123.0	122.8
10	Oklahoma	123.1	122.3	122.6	122.7
11	Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0
12	Auburn	122.5	120.7	122.1	121.8
13	Wisconsin	120.5	120.2	120.5	120.4
14	Minnesota	118.8	118.5	118.5	118.6
15	Iowa	118.9	117.3	119.0	118.4
16	Notre Dame	118.8	117.6	118.8	118.4
17	Texas A&M	117.9	116.4	117.0	117.1
18	Iowa St.	115.4	116.0	115.8	115.7
19	Washington	114.1	113.8	115.1	114.3
20	Baylor	113.0	113.0	112.3	112.8
21	Washington St.	112.1	111.3	112.5	112.0
22	Central Florida	111.8	111.1	112.3	111.7
23	U S C	110.6	111.1	111.3	111.0
24	Indiana	111.3	110.4	111.3	111.0
25	Texas	110.5	110.8	110.5	110.6
26	Oklahoma St.	110.4	111.1	110.1	110.5
27	Kansas St.	110.6	110.4	110.4	110.5
28	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.5	113.7	110.0
29	Tennessee	110.2	110.0	109.5	109.9
30	Missouri	110.6	108.0	109.7	109.4
31	Kentucky	109.8	108.5	108.7	109.0
32	Miami (Fla.)	108.6	108.3	109.8	108.9
33	Virginia Tech	108.4	108.4	109.3	108.7
34	T C U	107.7	110.0	108.0	108.6
35	South Carolina	109.2	107.4	108.2	108.3
36	Michigan St.	108.7	107.7	107.9	108.1
37	Memphis	107.5	107.6	108.6	107.9
38	Appalachian St.	107.9	107.2	107.5	107.5
39	Virginia	107.4	107.3	107.4	107.4
40	Ole Miss	107.3	106.6	107.4	107.1
41	Cincinnati	106.7	106.2	106.9	106.6
42	Boise St.	106.2	106.4	106.3	106.3
43	North Carolina	105.8	105.6	106.5	106.0
44	Pittsburgh	105.9	105.5	106.2	105.9
45	Texas Tech	105.9	106.3	105.2	105.8
46	Arizona St.	105.9	105.2	106.1	105.8
47	SMU	105.5	105.2	106.2	105.6
48	Air Force	104.1	105.7	105.0	104.9
49	Florida St.	104.5	104.5	104.7	104.6
50	Illinois	104.1	105.0	103.9	104.4
51	Purdue	104.0	103.8	103.4	103.7
52	Nebraska	103.3	103.7	102.4	103.1
53	BYU	102.8	103.0	102.8	102.9
54	California	102.7	102.4	103.2	102.8
55	Wake Forest	102.9	102.1	103.0	102.7
56	Boston College	102.4	102.0	102.6	102.3
57	Syracuse	102.1	101.3	101.4	101.6
58	West Virginia	101.7	101.4	101.1	101.4
59	Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.2	101.3
60	Northwestern	101.6	100.6	100.0	100.7
61	Louisiana	100.5	100.8	100.1	100.5
62	Oregon St.	100.0	101.0	99.8	100.3
63	Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.2	100.2
64	Louisville	100.0	99.8	100.0	99.9
65	Utah St.	99.6	99.1	100.5	99.7
66	Wyoming	98.9	100.7	99.3	99.6
67	U C L A	99.4	99.2	99.1	99.3
68	Temple	98.8	98.4	99.9	99.0
69	Navy	97.7	100.0	98.5	98.8
70	Florida Atlantic	98.0	98.0	99.4	98.5
71	Duke	98.7	97.9	98.4	98.3
72	Western Michigan	98.3	97.3	98.0	97.9
73	San Diego St.	97.2	98.8	97.1	97.7
74	Georgia Southern	97.3	97.3	97.0	97.2
75	Houston	96.0	96.8	97.8	96.8
76	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8
77	Maryland	97.5	96.3	95.9	96.6
78	Southern Miss.	96.7	95.5	97.1	96.4
79	Colorado	96.5	96.3	96.3	96.3
80	Kansas	95.7	96.7	95.6	96.0
81	Hawaii	95.5	96.9	94.6	95.7
82	Army	95.3	95.5	94.8	95.2
83	Louisiana Tech	94.9	95.1	95.2	95.0
84	Fresno St.	94.6	95.6	94.7	95.0
85	North Carolina St.	94.7	94.0	94.3	94.3
86	Tulsa	93.6	94.5	94.9	94.3
87	Troy	94.4	94.9	93.3	94.2
88	Marshall	93.5	93.3	94.5	93.8
89	Western Kentucky	92.9	93.8	94.5	93.7
90	Buffalo	92.7	93.2	93.9	93.2
91	Ohio	93.4	92.4	93.7	93.2
92	Miami (Ohio)	92.5	91.5	93.2	92.4
93	South Florida	91.4	92.3	91.8	91.8
94	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
95	Georgia St.	91.2	92.2	90.7	91.4
96	Arkansas St.	91.1	91.4	90.8	91.1
97	Liberty	90.3	91.4	90.6	90.7
98	Georgia Tech	90.8	89.5	91.0	90.4
99	Ball St.	90.3	89.9	90.4	90.2
100	Northern Illinois	90.1	89.5	90.4	90.0
101	Central Michigan	89.0	89.6	90.0	89.5
102	San Jose St.	88.3	90.2	88.5	89.0
103	U A B	87.9	89.9	88.5	88.8
104	Colorado St.	87.3	90.6	87.8	88.6
105	Nevada	88.1	89.7	87.6	88.5
106	Middle Tennessee	88.6	87.8	88.4	88.3
107	Toledo	88.0	88.1	88.5	88.2
108	Kent St.	87.8	87.8	88.4	88.0
109	North Texas	88.0	87.6	88.3	88.0
110	Coastal Carolina	87.4	88.6	87.2	87.7
111	Arkansas	87.4	87.3	86.6	87.1
112	Charlotte	86.0	86.4	86.4	86.3
113	Louisiana-Monroe	85.7	86.1	85.1	85.6
114	Eastern Michigan	85.3	85.5	85.7	85.5
115	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.4	85.4	85.5
116	East Carolina	83.9	85.3	84.3	84.5
117	Rutgers	84.7	84.4	83.5	84.2
118	U N L V	82.8	84.3	82.2	83.1
119	Rice	81.1	82.0	80.6	81.3
120	New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
121	Texas St.	78.3	78.8	77.5	78.2
122	New Mexico St.	75.8	77.6	75.6	76.3
123	Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.5	75.6	76.2
124	South Alabama	75.0	77.5	74.7	75.8
125	Old Dominion	73.9	74.2	74.0	74.0
126	Bowling Green	72.2	71.8	72.1	72.1
127	Connecticut	71.2	74.0	70.2	71.8
128	U T E P	68.6	72.3	69.0	69.9
129	Akron	65.9	65.6	64.5	65.3
130	Massachusetts	56.5	58.0	55.2	56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.8	111.1	112.3	111.7	4-2	7-3
Cincinnati	106.7	106.2	106.9	106.6	6-0	9-1
Temple	98.8	98.4	99.9	99.0	4-2	7-3
South Florida	91.4	92.3	91.8	91.8	2-4	4-6
East Carolina	83.9	85.3	84.3	84.5	0-6	3-7
Connecticut	71.2	74.0	70.2	71.8	0-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	107.5	107.6	108.6	107.9	5-1	9-1
SMU	105.5	105.2	106.2	105.6	5-1	9-1
Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.2	100.2	3-3	6-4
Navy	97.7	100.0	98.5	98.8	5-1	7-2
Houston	96.0	96.8	97.8	96.8	1-5	3-7
Tulsa	93.6	94.5	94.9	94.3	1-5	3-7
AAC Averages	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	137.6	135.7	138.9	137.4	8-0	11-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.5	104.7	104.6	4-4	6-5
Wake Forest	102.9	102.1	103.0	102.7	3-3	7-3
Boston College	102.4	102.0	102.6	102.3	3-4	5-5
Syracuse	102.1	101.3	101.4	101.6	1-5	4-6
Louisville	100.0	99.8	100.0	99.9	4-3	6-4
North Carolina St.	94.7	94.0	94.3	94.3	1-5	4-6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	108.6	108.3	109.8	108.9	4-3	6-4
Virginia Tech	108.4	108.4	109.3	108.7	5-2	7-3
Virginia	107.4	107.3	107.4	107.4	5-2	7-3
North Carolina	105.8	105.6	106.5	106.0	3-4	4-6
Pittsburgh	105.9	105.5	106.2	105.9	4-2	7-3
Duke	98.7	97.9	98.4	98.3	2-5	4-6
Georgia Tech	90.8	89.5	91.0	90.4	1-6	2-8
ACC Averages	105.0	104.4	105.3	104.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.1	122.3	122.6	122.7	6-1	9-1
Iowa St.	115.4	116.0	115.8	115.7	4-3	6-4
Baylor	113.0	113.0	112.3	112.8	6-1	9-1
Texas	110.5	110.8	110.5	110.6	4-3	6-4
Oklahoma St.	110.4	111.1	110.1	110.5	4-3	7-3
Kansas St.	110.6	110.4	110.4	110.5	3-4	6-4
T C U	107.7	110.0	108.0	108.6	3-4	5-5
Texas Tech	105.9	106.3	105.2	105.8	2-5	4-6
West Virginia	101.7	101.4	101.1	101.4	2-5	4-6
Kansas	95.7	96.7	95.6	96.0	1-6	3-7
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	140.0	139.2	141.3	140.2	7-0	10-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	126.0	125.3	5-2	8-2
Penn St.	123.2	122.2	123.0	122.8	6-1	9-1
Indiana	111.3	110.4	111.3	111.0	4-3	7-3
Michigan St.	108.7	107.7	107.9	108.1	2-5	4-6
Maryland	97.5	96.3	95.9	96.6	1-6	3-7
Rutgers	84.7	84.4	83.5	84.2	0-7	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.5	120.2	120.5	120.4	5-2	8-2
Minnesota	118.8	118.5	118.5	118.6	6-1	9-1
Iowa	118.9	117.3	119.0	118.4	4-3	7-3
Illinois	104.1	105.0	103.9	104.4	4-3	6-4
Purdue	104.0	103.8	103.4	103.7	3-4	4-6
Nebraska	103.3	103.7	102.4	103.1	2-5	4-6
Northwestern	101.6	100.6	100.0	100.7	0-7	2-8
Big Ten Averages	111.6	111.0	111.2	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.0	98.0	99.4	98.5	5-1	7-3
Marshall	93.5	93.3	94.5	93.8	5-1	7-3
Western Kentucky	92.9	93.8	94.5	93.7	4-2	6-4
Middle Tennessee	88.6	87.8	88.4	88.3	2-4	3-7
Charlotte	86.0	86.4	86.4	86.3	3-3	5-5
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.4	85.4	85.5	3-4	5-5
Old Dominion	73.9	74.2	74.0	74.0	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	96.7	95.5	97.1	96.4	5-1	7-3
Louisiana Tech	94.9	95.1	95.2	95.0	5-1	8-2
U A B	87.9	89.9	88.5	88.8	4-2	7-3
North Texas	88.0	87.6	88.3	88.0	3-3	4-6
Rice	81.1	82.0	80.6	81.3	1-5	1-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.5	75.6	76.2	3-3	4-6
U T E P	68.6	72.3	69.0	69.9	0-7	1-9
CUSA Averages	86.5	87.1	86.9	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	118.8	117.6	118.8	118.4	x	8-2
BYU	102.8	103.0	102.8	102.9	x	6-4
Army	95.3	95.5	94.8	95.2	x	5-6
Liberty	90.3	91.4	90.6	90.7	x	6-4
New Mexico St.	75.8	77.6	75.6	76.3	x	1-9
Massachusetts	56.5	58.0	55.2	56.6	x	1-10
Indep. Averages	89.9	90.5	89.6	90.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	92.7	93.2	93.9	93.2	3-3	5-5
Ohio	93.4	92.4	93.7	93.2	3-3	4-6
Miami (Ohio)	92.5	91.5	93.2	92.4	5-1	6-4
Kent St.	87.8	87.8	88.4	88.0	3-3	4-6
Bowling Green	72.2	71.8	72.1	72.1	2-4	3-7
Akron	65.9	65.6	64.5	65.3	0-6	0-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.3	97.3	98.0	97.9	5-2	7-4
Ball St.	90.3	89.9	90.4	90.2	3-3	4-6
Northern Illinois	90.1	89.5	90.4	90.0	3-3	4-6
Central Michigan	89.0	89.6	90.0	89.5	5-2	7-4
Toledo	88.0	88.1	88.5	88.2	3-3	6-4
Eastern Michigan	85.3	85.5	85.7	85.5	2-4	5-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.9	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.2	106.4	106.3	106.3	6-0	9-1
Air Force	104.1	105.7	105.0	104.9	5-1	8-2
Utah St.	99.6	99.1	100.5	99.7	5-1	6-4
Wyoming	98.9	100.7	99.3	99.6	3-3	6-4
Colorado St.	87.3	90.6	87.8	88.6	3-3	4-6
New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9	0-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.2	98.8	97.1	97.7	5-2	8-2
Hawaii	95.5	96.9	94.6	95.7	4-3	7-4
Fresno St.	94.6	95.6	94.7	95.0	2-4	4-6
San Jose St.	88.3	90.2	88.5	89.0	1-5	4-6
Nevada	88.1	89.7	87.6	88.5	3-3	6-4
U N L V	82.8	84.3	82.2	83.1	1-6	2-8
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.5	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0	7-0	9-1
Washington	114.1	113.8	115.1	114.3	3-4	6-4
Washington St.	112.1	111.3	112.5	112.0	2-5	5-5
California	102.7	102.4	103.2	102.8	2-5	5-5
Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.2	101.3	3-5	4-6
Oregon St.	100.0	101.0	99.8	100.3	4-3	5-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	126.6	125.6	127.5	126.6	6-1	9-1
U S C	110.6	111.1	111.3	111.0	6-2	7-4
Arizona St.	105.9	105.2	106.1	105.8	2-5	5-5
U C L A	99.4	99.2	99.1	99.3	4-3	4-6
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8	2-5	4-6
Colorado	96.5	96.3	96.3	96.3	2-5	4-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.1	107.6	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.9	126.2	128.3	127.5	6-1	9-1
Florida	125.6	123.0	125.4	124.6	7-2	9-2
Tennessee	110.2	110.0	109.5	109.9	3-3	5-5
Missouri	110.6	108.0	109.7	109.4	2-4	5-5
Kentucky	109.8	108.5	108.7	109.0	3-5	5-5
South Carolina	109.2	107.4	108.2	108.3	3-5	4-7
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8	6-0	10-0
Alabama	128.9	125.7	129.4	128.0	6-1	9-1
Auburn	122.5	120.7	122.1	121.8	4-3	7-3
Texas A&M	117.9	116.4	117.0	117.1	4-2	7-3
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.5	113.7	110.0	2-5	4-6
Ole Miss	107.3	106.6	107.4	107.1	2-5	4-7
Arkansas	87.4	87.3	86.6	87.1	0-6	2-8
SEC Averages	113.7	111.9	113.5	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	107.9	107.2	107.5	107.5	5-1	9-1
Georgia Southern	97.3	97.3	97.0	97.2	4-2	6-4
Troy	94.4	94.9	93.3	94.2	3-3	5-5
Georgia St.	91.2	92.2	90.7	91.4	3-3	6-4
Coastal Carolina	87.4	88.6	87.2	87.7	1-5	4-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.5	100.8	100.1	100.5	5-1	8-2
Arkansas St.	91.1	91.4	90.8	91.1	4-2	6-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.7	86.1	85.1	85.6	3-3	4-6
Texas St.	78.3	78.8	77.5	78.2	2-4	3-7
South Alabama	75.0	77.5	74.7	75.8	0-6	1-9
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.4	90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.4
4	Pac-12	107.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.9
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.0
10	Mid-American	87.1
11	Conference USA	86.8
Our Guess at Top 6
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Alabama
Top 5 Group of 5
1	Cincinnati
2	Memphis
3	Boise St.
4	SMU
5	Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgia could be headed to the playoffs if they both win out, and then Georgia pulls off a mild upset in the SEC Championship Game. There is also a small chance that Alabama could sneak back into the picture if LSU beats Georgia, and then Alabama thrashes Auburn on The Plains to show the Committee that losing Tua Tagovailoa didn’t weaken the Tide enough to knock them out of the Playoff picture. Either way, there is a decent chance that the SEC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially if Oklahoma loses another game and Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12.

Alabama and Florida are almost assured of receiving New Year’s Six Bowl Bids, and if Alabama sneaks into the Playoffs, then Georgia will replace the Tide in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Citrus bowl would then take Auburn. Texas A&M is almost a cinch to go to the Texas Bowl this year, where some backroom deals are being made to place Texas in there as a dream match-up. Tennessee is one win away from a possible destination in Jacksonville in the Gator Bowl, while Kentucky needs only to beat UT-Martin this week to earn a trip to a possible Outback Bowl game against a possible neighboring rival.

At this point, there are no more happy guarantees for the great SEC. Mississippi State is going to beat Abilene Christian this weekend to get to 5-6, but then they must turn around and face Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day, while the Rebels get this week off to prepare an extra few days. The way the two teams are playing presently, Ole Miss looks like the superior team, so we will count out Mississippi State at 5-7.

Missouri is 5-5, and the Tigers still have to play Arkansas, so even though they have lost four consecutive games, Mizzou is going to be 6-6. The Tigers are still in limbo with the NCAA. While Missouri is on probation and has a bowl ban, their legal team has filed an appeal, and the NCAA has yet to rule on it and might not rule on it until after bowl bids have been issued. It looks like the NCAA is going to turn the other cheek to help the SEC out, and then rule after the bowl season on the matter, or they could rule that Missouri has done enough in-house corrections to get a reprieve. Then, again, there is a lot of dissension going on in Columbia, and the school may choose to close up shop after the Arkansas game and self-impose on taking a meaningless bowl game at 6-6.

The SEC has agreements with 11 bowls not including the Playoffs. If two SEC teams make the Playoffs, then the SEC will have the need for 13 bowl eligible teams and will most likely have eight or nine bowl eligible teams. If Maalox wants to create a nice promotion, they will send free cases of their product to the members of the Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls, and possibly the Belk Bowl.

With the possibility of some really weak bowl match-ups, you can expect this season to produce at least one if not two or three “backroom” deals to place better at-large teams in the bowls where the opponent is a Power Five team. A 9-3 Power Conference team playing a 6-6 Group of 5 team just cannot be allowed.

What you see in our Bowl Projections are the raw projections strictly following the bowl rules. As information leaks about potential back-room deals, we will try to stay on top of all the news and rumors.

Here is a conference by conference look at the bowl eligible teams and those that can still become bowl eligible.

American Athletic

Bowl Eligible: 7
Memphis, SMU, Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Temple

Still Alive: South Florida

If either Memphis or Cincinnati win out to capture the AAC Title, that team will head to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 best champion. SMU could also earn this bid if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, while the Mustangs win out, including beating Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Navy has a remote chance at getting to the Cotton Bowl. Memphis and SMU would both have to lose in the regular season, while Navy wins out and beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game, and Boise State would have to lose in the Mountain West.
South Florida merely has to beat Memphis and Central Florida to earn a bowl, so it isn’t going to be a Bulls Market this year.

Atlantic Coast (+ Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh

Still Alive: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, N. Carolina St., and Syracuse

Clemson has the best chance of any team of going 13-0 before the Playoffs, but we are starting to see just a little extra possibility that if Virginia Tech takes care of Pittsburgh and Virginia, the Hokies will be a little more formidable than the experts are given them credit for being. Va. Tech was dismissed for dead earlier in the season, but Justin Fuente has done an incredible job re-shaping the Hokie team to where they look like the second best team in the league. If Tech beats Pitt and Virginia, they will most likely be the Orange Bowl representative even if Clemson pounds them in the ACC Championship Game.

At this point, our forecast calls for North Carolina to top Mercer and NC State to finish 6-6 and grab the last bowl spot that goes to the ACC. We don’t see a path to 6-6 for the other teams still alive.

Big 12

Bowl Eligible: 6
Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St.

Still Alive: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The PiRate Ratings do not forecast Oklahoma to win out and sneak into the Playoffs, but don’t assume we are picking Baylor to get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have to go to Stillwater to face the much-improved Cowboys, and we believe Oklahoma St. has a very decent chance to pull off the upset and ruin the league’s chances to get into the Playoffs.

Of the teams still fighting for bowl eligibility, we believe TCU can beat West Virginia in Fort Worth to get their sixth win, but Tech and the Mountaineers might both be staring at 5-7 seasons.

Big Ten

Bowl Eligible: 7

Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Still Alive: Michigan St., Nebraska, Purdue

This is the most interesting race for the Playoffs and Bowl seeding. First, Ohio State must now close with wins against Penn State, Michigan, and the Western Division Champion in the Conference Championship Game to guarantee a Playoff spot. Only the Penn State game is in the Giant Horseshoe. We remember 50 years ago quite well, when an 8-0 Ohio State team that many were calling the greatest college football team since Army in 1945, went to the Big House to play a two-loss Michigan team that remembered being thrashed in Columbus the previous year. That Ohio State team was a double-digit favorite and got thrashed by a Michigan defense that played well over its potential that day.

Assuming Ohio State handles Penn State this weekend, could history repeat itself 50 years later? Of course, James Franklin has a history of getting underdog teams psyched up to win big road games, so the Nittany Lions could still be in the Big Ten Championship picture.

On the other side, Minnesota still controls its own destiny, but then so does Wisconsin. The Gophers did everything but beat Iowa in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes frequently win games at home with final stats that on paper look like they lost by a couple of touchdowns. The Gophers get Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

There is even a bizarre scenario where Illinois could win the West Division flag. This requires Minnesota to lose to Northwestern and Wisconsin; for Wisconsin to lose to Purdue, while the Illini beat Iowa and Northwestern. The chances for this to happen are about the same as Lovie Smith taking over Alabama for Nick Saban in 2020.

Michigan State is now 4-6, and the Spartans look like an offense from the days of one platoon football. Their defense has fallen apart with all the extra snaps it has had to face, but now Sparty catches a break. MSU closes with Rutgers and Maryland, so the Green and White have about a 95% chance of improving to 6-6 and getting a bottom tier bowl bid.

Nebraska is 4-6 with games remaining against Maryland and Iowa. We have a suspicion that Scott Frost will have his team prepared to face the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium and will pull off the upset to close at 6-6 and get the final bowl bid in this league.

Purdue must beat both Wisconsin and Indiana to get to 6-6, and by the time they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, their long snapper might be the backup quarterback. Better luck next year Boilermakers.

Because the Big Ten has the most strict bowl tie-ins, certain teams cannot go to certain bowls if they have been to them in the last five years. What this means is:

The Citrus Bowl will not invite Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State

The Outback Bowl will not invite Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Holiday Bowl will not invite Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Gator Bowl will not invite Iowa or Penn St.

The Pinstripe Bowl will not invite Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin

The Redbox Bowl will not invite Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, or Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl will not invite Minnesota

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss., UAB

Still Alive: Charlotte, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UTSA

Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, so it the Thundering Herd beat Charlotte and FIU, they will be East Division champs. In the West, Louisiana Tech controls their destiny, but if the Bulldogs lose to UAB, then Southern Miss can win out and take the division flag.

Of the teams still alive, Charlotte and North Texas have the best chances to get to six wins, while FIU and UTSA have close to zero chances to do so. Because this league could have eight bowl eligible teams, and they have just five primary tie-ins, two or three teams will get at-large invitations, and deals could be made to send better teams to at-large spots.

Independents (not Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 2
BYU, Liberty

Still Alive: Army

BYU has earned its guaranteed Hawaii Bowl bid with its sixth win. Liberty doesn’t have a primary bowl bid, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl. Since the AAC is likely to send its champion to the Cotton Bowl, the Cure Bowl bid could be there for Liberty.

Army must beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Navy to get to 7-6. We don’t see it happening this year.

Mid-American

Bowl Eligible: 4
Miami (O), Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive: Buffalo, Kent St., Ohio, Ball St., Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois

Not having a dominating team and having to play games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays have led to MACtion being one big season-long toss-up with a lot of parity. Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division title, as the Red Hawks hold all potential tiebreakers over Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St. The West is a different story as four teams are still technically alive. Western Michigan will win the division if the Broncos beat both Ohio and Northern Illinois, but both games are on the road, and we don’t believe WMU will go 2-0.

Central Michigan must win at Ball State and then beat Toledo at home and then hope that WMU loses to Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois and Toledo are still mathematically alive in the race but need multiple things to happen to sneak into the top spot in the West.

There are still six teams trying to become eligible, and by the time the regular season concludes, we believe the MAC will have eight bowl eligible teams with five teams at 6-6. Not all these 6-6 teams will have bowl spots available to them, but the MAC should receive at least one extra bowl invitation and possibly two.

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Utah St., Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St.

Still Alive: Colorado St., Fresno St., San Jose St.

Boise State must win out and hope for the AAC to implode and produce a two-loss league champion in order for the Broncos to ascend to the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. could be 12-1 and relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl. If that happens, and the Pac-12 has a 6-6 team available, there is a chance that a deal could be made to send the Pac-12 team east and bring a 10 or 11-win team like Appalachian State or SMU to Vegas. Or, Boise State could be sent east to play in a Liberty, Music City, or Belk Bowl where no SEC team is available.

Air Force is looking at 10-2 and another potential bad bowl match-up, and because the Falcons can basically bring the entire Academy, they can fill up a bowl stadium even if it’s 1,500 miles from Colorado Springs.

In the West, the winner of the San Diego State-Hawaii game this week gets to face Boise State with a chance for the big upset. Technically, Air Force and Utah State are still alive in the Mountain, but Boise State has to lose twice for that to happen.
Of the three teams still with a chance to become bowl eligible, Colorado State has to beat both Wyoming and Boise State, so the Rams are staying home for the holidays. Fresno State and San Jose State are looking at a season finale where they will face off in San Jose with probably 5-6 records. The Spartans look like the stronger team in November, so we’ll give SJSU the final bid.

Pac-12

Bowl Eligible: 4
Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah

Still Alive: California, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St. Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, UCLA

The entire conference is still alive for a bowl! That’s a blessing and a curse. There is so much parity that when USC beat Utah, they severely damaged this league’s chance to sneak a team into the Playoffs. Even if either Utah or Oregon wins out to finish 12-1, they are almost assuredly relegated to Pasadena and not to the Playoffs. Oregon dominated Auburn until the final few minutes to start the season, and that game is just as important as the Utah loss to the Trojans.

Of the eight remaining teams not yet bowl eligible, we believe that three will get to six wins. Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA don’t look like they have enough talent to win the games they must win to get to 6-6. Any 6-6 team in this league will be in a bowl.

Southeastern

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M

Still Alive: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi St.

See above for the explanation for the SEC. We believe nine teams will be bowl eligible, or eight if Missouri either self-imposes a bowl ban, or the NCAA denies their appeal before December.

Sunbelt

Bowl Eligible: 5
Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St.. Arkansas St., Louisiana

Still Alive: Coastal Carolina, Troy, UL-Monroe

It will take a monumental chain of events for Appy State and Lousiana not to meet in the SBC Championship Game. Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Troy all still hold miniscule division title hopes in the East, while Arkansas St. and UL-Monroe are still mathematically alive in the West.

This is the only conference where we don’t see an additional team still alive becoming bowl eligible.

This Week’s Projections

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Nevada]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Cincinnati	Central Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ball St.	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	California
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Navy	Western Kentucky
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Central Florida
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Charlotte]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Wake Forest	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Washington St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	[Utah St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Eastern Michigan]	Virginia
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Louisville	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	[North Texas]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	Hawaii
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Alabama
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[UAB]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Air Force
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Georgia	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Georgia	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 14-18, 2019

Your 1962 New York Mets of Selections

The lovable 1962 New York Mets won 40 games in their initial season in Major League Baseball.  There were a couple of star players, and the rest of the roster belonged in the International League.  

That’s how our selections have fared this year.  A couple of times, we came up with some incredible wins on some long shot picks, but the rest of the time, our picks belonged in the bush leagues.

The good thing about the Mets was that eventually 1969 came, and they performed miracles in winning the World Series.  Of course, having player development that brought them Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Nolan Ryan, Cleon Jones, Jerry Grote, and Bud Harrelson, as well as some nice acquisitions in Tommie Agee and Donn Clendenon, made their roster quite strong.  The PiRate Ratings have not developed any young talent in the last few weeks with hopes that a wagering week like 1969 will create a second miracle.

On the other hand, this has historically been the week that our ratings have enjoyed the most over the last 10 years.  The third week of November has brought us our highest return on imaginary investment (our picks are for entertainment purposes and never actually wagered on by us) of the season.

Three years ago, we hit on some outrageous parlays and outright picks against the spread, making a slight ROI on the year into a windfall profit margin.  Two years ago, we turned a slight deficit on the year into a nice profit that when combined with the bowl season gave us another year in the black.  Last year, we went from large deficit to almost break even after this week.

You can see the trend.  Every year, this week turned the momentum in our direction, but each year, this week reversed more malaise than the previous season.  In 2019, we find ourselves so deep in the whole that even the best ever finish on this week will still leave us well in the red.

So, remember, even though  this week has been rather successful for us in the past, please DO NOT WAGER your money on what you will read below.  If we have not faith in these picks, why should you?

Disclaimer: This does not apply to those handful of Smarts that somehow take our spreads and other data and make money off them somehow in Nevada and in the Caribbean.  How you do it, we do not know.  But, we do know that a group of Smarts uses our ratings and consistently beats the books.  

This week, we are going to issue a few less choices overall, but this is because we feel the heat on us.  This has been a winning week so many times for us that we spent an extra 10 minutes or so per selection looking them over.  We found a couple of special teasers that cross over the important spread numbers.  We isolated on some money line parlays that we feel strong about.

As for our experimental Davey19 system, the biggest difference in the line and its predicted score just so happened to pop up this week.  There is a reason for this.  The oddsmakers definitely consider psychological factors when making the line.  Davey19 has no personality.  Davey is a computer program with no emotion.  

What game are we talking about?  The Iowa-Minnesota game in Iowa City has the Gophers playing on the road in a tough environment coming off their monumental home win over Penn State.  The oddsmakers have Iowa favored in this game as a trap for Minnesota.  Davey19 strictly picks games when its experimental spread differs from the line by more than 3.5 points.  Davey19 says Minnesota is a touchdown better than Iowa at Kinnick Stadium.  That’s a full 10 points different.  Minnesota might indeed suffer a letdown, but 10 points of letdown is a lot.  And, the Gophers aren’t just playing a game following an upset win.  They have a lot more to play for now.  They have the Playoffs in their sites, and for now, every game is the biggest game in school history since Sandy Stephens, Roger Hagberg, and Bobby Bell played for the #3 Gophers against #1 Iowa in 1960.  Yes, this is the biggest game in Minnesota history since they played Iowas 59 years ago and basically secured the national championship with a convincing win over the #1 team.

Without further adieu, here are our picks for the week.

 

PiRate Picks

College Money Line Parlays

 

#1–3 Games at +142

Winner	Loser
Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech
Georgia Southern	UL-Monroe
Middle Tennessee	Rice

 

#2–3 Games at +148

Winner	Loser
Marshall	Louisiana Tech
Florida	Missouri
Kansas St.	West Virginia

 

#3–4 Games at +133

Winner	Loser
Michigan	Michigan St.
Kentucky	Vanderbilt
Duke	Syracuse
Texas A&M	South Carolina

 

#4–2 Games at +134

Winner	Loser
Notre Dame	Navy
Georgia	Auburn

 

#5–3 Games at +151

Winner	Loser
Memphis	Houston
Air Force	Colorado St.
Louisville	N. Carolina St.

 

NFL 10-Point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Denver	0.5	Minnesota
Oakland	Cincinnati	0.5	Oakland
Chicago	LA Rams	3.5	LA Rams

 

NFL 13-Point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	16	Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	7.5	New Orleans
Atlanta	Carolina	7.5	Carolina
Washington	N.Y. Jets	14.5	N.Y. Jets

 

Davey19

An Experimental College Football Selection System

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Fresno St.	San Diego St.	1	San Diego St.
Ball St.	Central Michigan	2.5	Ball St.
USC	California	6.5	USC
TCU	Texas Tech	3.5	Texas Tech
Southern Miss.	UTSA	17	UTSA
LSU	Ole Miss	21	Ole Miss
Iowa	Minnesota	3	Minnesota

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 7, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

October 9 to	October 12
Wednesday	October 9
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana	Appalchian St.	-2.1	-0.5	-1.6
Thursday	October 10
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Texas St.	Louisiana-Monroe	-1.5	-1.3	-1.5
North Carolina St.	Syracuse	-3.0	-2.7	-2.9
Friday	October 11
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia	1.0	0.0	1.5
New Mexico	Colorado St.	3.6	2.8	2.5
Oregon	Colorado	19.6	19.8	20.8
Saturday	October 5
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Indiana	Rutgers	24.6	23.7	24.7
Bowling Green	Toledo	-20.9	-21.7	-22.2
Illinois	Michigan	-20.3	-17.6	-21.7
Wake Forest	Louisville	10.8	10.5	11.9
Tulsa	Navy	5.1	3.1	5.8
Texas (n)	Oklahoma	-11.7	-10.6	-11.4
Temple	Memphis	-0.2	-1.3	-0.2
Minnesota	Nebraska	8.5	6.9	8.0
Duke	Georgia Tech	16.9	18.3	16.7
Coastal Carolina	Georgia St.	1.2	1.1	1.3
Purdue	Maryland	-0.8	-0.5	-0.8
West Virginia	Iowa St.	-6.4	-7.5	-7.1
Boise St.	Hawaii	12.0	9.8	13.1
Eastern Michigan	Ball St.	0.0	0.8	0.6
Marshall	Old Dominion	14.1	12.9	14.7
Central Michigan	New Mexico St.	10.1	8.5	10.7
Arizona St.	Washington St.	0.6	1.0	1.3
Oregon St.	Utah	-17.7	-15.0	-18.8
Arizona	Washington	-6.7	-6.0	-7.4
Missouri	Ole Miss	14.5	12.9	15.2
Georgia	South Carolina	19.2	19.3	20.1
Tennessee	Mississippi St.	-5.2	-1.5	-11.9
Akron	Kent St.	-11.5	-11.2	-12.6
Ohio	Northern Illinois	3.8	3.9	4.5
Kentucky	Arkansas	12.1	9.7	11.1
Baylor	Texas Tech	9.7	9.8	10.5
Western Michigan	Miami (O)	12.5	13.2	12.0
South Florida	BYU	-7.2	-6.1	-6.9
Houston	Cincinnati	-7.2	-4.7	-4.9
Tulane	Connecticut	32.1	28.8	34.3
Vanderbilt	UNLV	20.0	16.8	18.9
Wisconsin	Michigan St.	6.6	6.9	6.7
LSU	Florida	8.3	8.7	8.1
Nevada	San Jose St.	5.6	5.2	5.5
Texas A&M	Alabama	-15.8	-13.9	-18.0
Florida Atlantic	Middle Tennessee	6.0	6.5	6.8
UTSA	UAB	-10.7	-10.1	-11.5
Southern Miss.	North Texas	4.8	3.4	4.0
Western Kentucky	Army	-8.9	-8.0	-6.9
Florida Int’l.	Charlotte	7.8	7.0	7.6
Louisiana Tech	Massachusetts	29.6	27.4	30.4
Air Force	Fresno St.	0.9	1.7	1.2
Notre Dame	USC	16.8	14.3	16.6
Clemson	Florida St.	30.7	27.3	31.4
Iowa	Penn St.	-1.1	-2.0	-0.8
San Diego St.	Wyoming	3.3	3.1	2.7
FBS vs. FCS
Virginia Tech	Rhode Island	22.0

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	135.0	133.9	135.9	134.9
2	Alabama	135.7	132.2	136.4	134.7
3	Clemson	132.2	129.1	132.9	131.4
4	Georgia	128.6	126.9	129.1	128.2
5	L S U	128.0	125.6	127.4	127.0
6	Oklahoma	124.7	123.9	124.6	124.4
7	Penn St.	122.4	121.5	122.3	122.1
8	Florida	122.8	119.9	122.4	121.7
9	Notre Dame	121.1	119.3	121.2	120.5
10	Auburn	121.2	119.3	120.8	120.4
11	Wisconsin	120.5	120.1	120.5	120.4
12	Michigan	119.4	117.6	119.7	118.9
13	Utah	118.7	117.2	119.1	118.3
14	Iowa	118.4	116.5	118.6	117.8
15	Michigan St.	116.9	116.2	116.8	116.6
16	Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6
17	Missouri	116.6	114.2	116.9	115.9
18	Texas A&M	116.9	115.3	115.4	115.9
19	Iowa St.	114.0	114.6	114.1	114.2
20	Mississippi St.	112.9	109.0	117.9	113.3
21	Texas	113.0	113.2	113.2	113.1
22	Baylor	112.7	112.9	112.4	112.7
23	Washington	112.2	111.8	113.2	112.4
24	South Carolina	112.3	110.6	112.0	111.6
25	Central Florida	111.2	110.3	112.1	111.2
26	Washington St.	110.9	109.9	111.0	110.6
27	Minnesota	110.5	109.9	109.6	110.0
28	Oklahoma St.	109.7	110.2	109.3	109.7
29	Arizona St.	108.4	107.8	109.3	108.5
30	Cincinnati	108.6	107.1	109.0	108.2
31	Virginia	107.8	108.0	107.9	107.9
32	Kansas St.	107.9	107.5	107.5	107.6
33	U S C	107.2	108.0	107.5	107.6
34	Duke	107.6	107.1	107.5	107.4
35	Maryland	107.8	107.3	107.0	107.4
36	Indiana	107.8	106.3	106.9	107.0
37	Boise St.	106.7	106.2	107.2	106.7
38	Northwestern	107.2	106.4	106.2	106.6
39	Syracuse	106.7	106.2	106.7	106.5
40	California	105.9	105.6	106.9	106.1
41	T C U	105.0	108.0	105.3	106.1
42	North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1
43	Stanford	106.1	105.3	105.9	105.8
44	Miami (Fla.)	105.8	105.0	106.4	105.7
45	Kentucky	106.6	105.0	105.0	105.5
46	Pittsburgh	105.5	105.2	105.6	105.4
47	Memphis	105.0	105.0	105.8	105.3
48	Nebraska	105.0	106.0	104.6	105.2
49	Texas Tech	105.4	105.6	104.4	105.1
50	SMU	104.8	104.6	105.9	105.1
51	Appalachian St.	105.4	104.0	104.8	104.7
52	Wake Forest	104.7	104.2	105.3	104.7
53	Ole Miss	105.1	104.2	104.7	104.7
54	Florida St.	104.5	104.8	104.5	104.6
55	West Virginia	104.6	104.1	104.0	104.2
56	Utah St.	104.3	103.1	105.3	104.2
57	Tennessee	104.7	104.5	103.0	104.1
58	Purdue	104.1	103.8	103.2	103.7
59	Arizona	102.6	102.8	102.8	102.7
60	Tulane	101.6	102.2	102.3	102.0
61	Temple	101.7	100.8	102.6	101.7
62	Virginia Tech	100.9	101.0	101.3	101.1
63	North Carolina St.	100.7	100.4	100.8	100.6
64	Louisiana	100.3	100.5	100.2	100.3
65	Boston College	100.2	100.0	100.5	100.2
66	Army	99.9	99.9	99.4	99.8
67	Houston	98.4	99.5	101.1	99.6
68	BYU	99.7	99.6	99.6	99.6
69	Hawaii	99.2	100.9	98.6	99.6
70	Fresno St.	99.2	99.8	99.6	99.5
71	Colorado	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5
72	Vanderbilt	99.8	98.3	98.3	98.8
73	San Diego St.	98.2	100.0	98.1	98.8
74	Wyoming	97.8	99.9	98.4	98.7
75	Oregon St.	98.0	99.2	97.3	98.2
76	Western Michigan	98.5	97.4	98.2	98.0
77	Air Force	97.1	98.5	97.8	97.8
78	Arkansas	97.5	98.3	96.9	97.6
79	Louisville	96.4	96.2	95.9	96.1
80	Illinois	96.1	97.0	94.9	96.0
81	U C L A	96.4	96.1	95.4	96.0
82	Toledo	94.6	95.1	95.7	95.1
83	Southern Miss.	94.6	92.8	94.7	94.0
84	Kansas	93.6	94.6	93.4	93.9
85	Troy	94.0	94.2	92.9	93.7
86	Tulsa	93.1	93.8	94.1	93.7
87	Ohio	93.6	92.7	94.3	93.6
88	Georgia Southern	93.9	93.3	93.0	93.4
89	Georgia Tech	93.6	91.8	93.9	93.1
90	North Texas	92.8	92.4	93.7	93.0
91	Florida Atlantic	92.5	92.0	93.4	92.6
92	Northern Illinois	92.3	91.3	92.3	92.0
93	Navy	90.5	93.2	90.8	91.5
94	Louisiana Tech	91.2	91.0	91.1	91.1
95	Florida Int’l.	90.8	90.6	91.0	90.8
96	Arkansas St.	90.6	90.8	90.3	90.6
97	South Florida	89.5	90.5	89.7	89.9
98	Marshall	89.3	88.7	90.2	89.4
99	Middle Tennessee	89.5	88.5	89.6	89.2
100	Buffalo	88.7	89.1	89.7	89.1
101	Liberty	88.6	89.9	88.9	89.1
102	Western Kentucky	88.0	89.0	89.6	88.8
103	U A B	87.8	89.6	88.5	88.7
104	Ball St.	88.7	88.2	88.6	88.5
105	Nevada	87.9	89.6	87.3	88.3
106	Miami (Ohio)	88.5	86.8	88.7	88.0
107	Louisiana-Monroe	87.7	88.5	87.5	87.9
108	Georgia St.	87.5	88.8	86.8	87.7
109	Kent St.	87.3	87.2	87.6	87.4
110	Coastal Carolina	86.7	87.9	86.1	86.9
111	Eastern Michigan	86.2	86.5	86.7	86.5
112	Charlotte	86.1	86.6	86.4	86.4
113	San Jose St.	85.3	87.4	84.8	85.8
114	Rutgers	86.1	85.7	85.2	85.7
115	Central Michigan	84.6	85.4	85.3	85.1
116	Texas St.	83.7	84.6	83.5	83.9
117	East Carolina	82.7	84.6	82.6	83.3
118	U N L V	82.3	84.1	81.9	82.8
119	New Mexico	81.8	84.6	80.7	82.4
120	Colorado St.	80.6	84.4	80.8	81.9
121	Rice	80.3	81.7	79.7	80.6
122	Old Dominion	78.3	78.8	78.4	78.5
123	New Mexico St.	77.5	79.9	77.6	78.3
124	Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.1	74.5	75.4
125	South Alabama	74.1	77.0	73.4	74.9
126	Akron	73.8	74.1	73.0	73.6
127	Connecticut	72.0	75.9	70.6	72.8
128	Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0
129	U T E P	67.1	71.9	67.7	68.9
130	Massachusetts	64.6	66.6	63.7	65.0

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.2	110.3	112.1	111.2	1-1	4-2
Cincinnati	108.6	107.1	109.0	108.2	1-0	4-1
Temple	101.7	100.8	102.6	101.7	1-0	4-1
South Florida	89.5	90.5	89.7	89.9	1-1	2-3
East Carolina	82.7	84.6	82.6	83.3	0-2	3-3
Connecticut	72.0	75.9	70.6	72.8	0-2	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.0	105.0	105.8	105.3	1-0	5-0
SMU	104.8	104.6	105.9	105.1	2-0	6-0
Tulane	101.6	102.2	102.3	102.0	1-0	4-1
Houston	98.4	99.5	101.1	99.6	0-1	2-3
Tulsa	93.1	93.8	94.1	93.7	0-1	2-3
Navy	90.5	93.2	90.8	91.5	1-1	3-1
AAC Averages	96.6	97.3	97.2	97.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	132.2	129.1	132.9	131.4	3-0	5-0
Syracuse	106.7	106.2	106.7	106.5	0-1	3-2
Wake Forest	104.7	104.2	105.3	104.7	1-0	5-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.8	104.5	104.6	2-1	3-2
North Carolina St.	100.7	100.4	100.8	100.6	0-1	3-2
Boston College	100.2	100.0	100.5	100.2	1-2	3-3
Louisville	96.4	96.2	95.9	96.1	1-1	3-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.8	108.0	107.9	107.9	2-0	4-1
Duke	107.6	107.1	107.5	107.4	1-1	3-2
North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1	2-1	3-3
Miami (Fla.)	105.8	105.0	106.4	105.7	0-2	2-3
Pittsburgh	105.5	105.2	105.6	105.4	1-1	4-2
Virginia Tech	100.9	101.0	101.3	101.1	1-2	3-2
Georgia Tech	93.6	91.8	93.9	93.1	0-2	1-4
ACC Averages	105.2	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	124.7	123.9	124.6	124.4	2-0	5-0
Iowa St.	114.0	114.6	114.1	114.2	1-1	3-2
Texas	113.0	113.2	113.2	113.1	2-0	4-1
Baylor	112.7	112.9	112.4	112.7	2-0	5-0
Oklahoma St.	109.7	110.2	109.3	109.7	1-2	4-2
Kansas St.	107.9	107.5	107.5	107.6	0-2	3-2
T C U	105.0	108.0	105.3	106.1	1-1	3-2
Texas Tech	105.4	105.6	104.4	105.1	1-1	3-2
West Virginia	104.6	104.1	104.0	104.2	1-1	3-2
Kansas	93.6	94.6	93.4	93.9	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.1	109.5	108.8	109.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	135.0	133.9	135.9	134.9	3-0	6-0
Penn St.	122.4	121.5	122.3	122.1	2-0	5-0
Michigan	119.4	117.6	119.7	118.9	2-1	4-1
Michigan St.	116.9	116.2	116.8	116.6	2-1	4-2
Maryland	107.8	107.3	107.0	107.4	1-1	3-2
Indiana	107.8	106.3	106.9	107.0	0-2	3-2
Rutgers	86.1	85.7	85.2	85.7	0-3	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.5	120.1	120.5	120.4	2-0	5-0
Iowa	118.4	116.5	118.6	117.8	1-1	4-1
Minnesota	110.5	109.9	109.6	110.0	2-0	5-0
Northwestern	107.2	106.4	106.2	106.6	0-3	1-4
Nebraska	105.0	106.0	104.6	105.2	2-1	4-2
Purdue	104.1	103.8	103.2	103.7	0-2	1-4
Illinois	96.1	97.0	94.9	96.0	0-2	2-3
Big Ten Averages	111.2	110.6	110.8	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	92.5	92.0	93.4	92.6	1-0	3-2
Florida Int’l.	90.8	90.6	91.0	90.8	0-2	2-3
Marshall	89.3	88.7	90.2	89.4	0-1	2-3
Middle Tennessee	89.5	88.5	89.6	89.2	1-0	2-3
Western Kentucky	88.0	89.0	89.6	88.8	3-0	3-2
Charlotte	86.1	86.6	86.4	86.4	0-1	2-3
Old Dominion	78.3	78.8	78.4	78.5	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	92.8	94.7	94.0	1-0	3-2
North Texas	92.8	92.4	93.7	93.0	1-0	2-3
Louisiana Tech	91.2	91.0	91.1	91.1	2-0	4-1
U A B	87.8	89.6	88.5	88.7	1-1	4-1
Rice	80.3	81.7	79.7	80.6	0-2	0-6
Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.1	74.5	75.4	1-1	2-3
U T E P	67.1	71.9	67.7	68.9	0-2	1-4
CUSA Averages	85.9	86.5	86.3	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.1	119.3	121.2	120.5	x	4-1
Army	99.9	99.9	99.4	99.8	x	3-2
BYU	99.7	99.6	99.6	99.6	x	2-3
Liberty	88.6	89.9	88.9	89.1	x	4-2
New Mexico St.	77.5	79.9	77.6	78.3	x	0-6
Massachusetts	64.6	66.6	63.7	65.0	x	1-5
Indep. Averages	91.9	92.5	91.7	92.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	93.6	92.7	94.3	93.6	1-0	2-3
Buffalo	88.7	89.1	89.7	89.1	0-2	2-4
Miami (Ohio)	88.5	86.8	88.7	88.0	1-0	2-3
Kent St.	87.3	87.2	87.6	87.4	1-0	2-3
Akron	73.8	74.1	73.0	73.6	0-1	0-5
Bowling Green	72.1	71.8	71.9	72.0	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.5	97.4	98.2	98.0	1-1	3-3
Toledo	94.6	95.1	95.7	95.1	1-0	4-1
Northern Illinois	92.3	91.3	92.3	92.0	0-1	1-4
Ball St.	88.7	88.2	88.6	88.5	1-0	2-3
Eastern Michigan	86.2	86.5	86.7	86.5	0-1	3-2
Central Michigan	84.6	85.4	85.3	85.1	2-1	3-3
MAC Averages	87.4	87.1	87.7	87.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.7	106.2	107.2	106.7	2-0	5-0
Utah St.	104.3	103.1	105.3	104.2	2-0	3-2
Wyoming	97.8	99.9	98.4	98.7	1-0	4-1
Air Force	97.1	98.5	97.8	97.8	1-1	3-2
New Mexico	81.8	84.6	80.7	82.4	0-1	2-3
Colorado St.	80.6	84.4	80.8	81.9	0-2	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Hawaii	99.2	100.9	98.6	99.6	1-0	4-1
Fresno St.	99.2	99.8	99.6	99.5	0-0	2-2
San Diego St.	98.2	100.0	98.1	98.8	1-1	4-1
Nevada	87.9	89.6	87.3	88.3	0-1	3-2
San Jose St.	85.3	87.4	84.8	85.8	1-1	3-2
U N L V	82.3	84.1	81.9	82.8	0-2	1-4
MWC Averages	93.4	94.9	93.4	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6	2-0	4-1
Washington	112.2	111.8	113.2	112.4	1-2	4-2
Washington St.	110.9	109.9	111.0	110.6	0-2	3-2
California	105.9	105.6	106.9	106.1	1-2	4-2
Stanford	106.1	105.3	105.9	105.8	2-2	3-3
Oregon St.	98.0	99.2	97.3	98.2	1-1	2-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	118.7	117.2	119.1	118.3	1-1	4-1
Arizona St.	108.4	107.8	109.3	108.5	1-1	4-1
U S C	107.2	108.0	107.5	107.6	2-1	3-2
Arizona	102.6	102.8	102.8	102.7	2-0	4-1
Colorado	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5	1-1	3-2
U C L A	96.4	96.1	95.4	96.0	1-2	1-5
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.6	126.9	129.1	128.2	2-0	5-0
Florida	122.8	119.9	122.4	121.7	4-0	6-0
Missouri	116.6	114.2	116.9	115.9	1-0	4-1
South Carolina	112.3	110.6	112.0	111.6	1-2	2-3
Kentucky	106.6	105.0	105.0	105.5	0-3	2-3
Tennessee	104.7	104.5	103.0	104.1	0-2	1-4
Vanderbilt	99.8	98.3	98.3	98.8	0-3	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.7	132.2	136.4	134.7	2-0	5-0
L S U	128.0	125.6	127.4	127.0	1-0	5-0
Auburn	121.2	119.3	120.8	120.4	2-1	5-1
Texas A&M	116.9	115.3	115.4	115.9	1-1	3-2
Mississippi St.	112.9	109.0	117.9	113.3	1-1	3-2
Ole Miss	105.1	104.2	104.7	104.7	2-1	3-3
Arkansas	97.5	98.3	96.9	97.6	0-2	2-3
SEC Averages	114.9	113.1	114.7	114.2
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.4	104.0	104.8	104.7	1-0	4-0
Troy	94.0	94.2	92.9	93.7	0-1	2-3
Georgia Southern	93.9	93.3	93.0	93.4	1-1	2-3
Georgia St.	87.5	88.8	86.8	87.7	1-1	3-2
Coastal Carolina	86.7	87.9	86.1	86.9	0-1	3-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.3	100.5	100.2	100.3	1-0	4-1
Arkansas St.	90.6	90.8	90.3	90.6	1-1	3-3
Louisiana-Monroe	87.7	88.5	87.5	87.9	1-0	2-3
Texas St.	83.7	84.6	83.5	83.9	1-0	2-3
South Alabama	74.1	77.0	73.4	74.9	0-2	1-5
SBC Averages	90.4	91.0	89.9	90.4

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	114.2
2	BTen	110.9
3	B12	109.1
4	P12	106.9
5	ACC	105.1
6	AAC	97.0
7	MWC	93.9
8	Ind	92.0
9	SUN	90.4
10	MAC	87.4
11	CUSA	86.2

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Boise St.
2	Memphis
3	SMU
4	Cincinnati
5	Hawaii

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

The What-if It Were To Happen Edition

 

Submitted for your disapproval, what happens if Clemson loses a game this year to say Florida State, North Carolina St., South Carolina, or Virginia in the ACC Championship Game?  With their weak schedule, the Tigers would most likely not receive a bid to the NCAA Playoffs.

 

The Pac-12 has already eliminated itself from consideration.  We won’t even give Oregon a chance at 11-1, unless a lot of teams fall victims to upsets–too many to contemplate.

 

The Big Ten has three incredible teams in Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Additionally, Minnesota is still undefeated, and Michigan is, well, Michigan.  More than likely one Big Ten team will run the table and finish 13-0 to guarantee a spot in the Playoffs.  There could be a one-loss team in consideration, but with power at the top, it is possible that there will be only an undefeated or one loss team and multiple two-loss teams.

 

In the Big 12, Oklahoma always tends to slip up against somebody but then recovers to win the Big 12 Championship Game.  If the Sooners were to lose to Texas, Baylor, or Iowa State, or if they lost in the Big 12 Championship Game, would a one-loss OU team be good enough to make the top four?

 

Now consider the giant.  Let’s say Alabama, LSU, and Georgia combine to have one undefeated team and two, one-loss teams.  Say, Alabama goes 12-0 and wins the SEC Championship Game over 12-0 Georgia, while LSU only loses at Alabama in a close game to have a record of 11-1.

 

Could it be that THREE SEC teams would finish ranked in the top 4?  That’s the scenario we present today in our bowl and playoff projections.  We are not saying this is a certainty; we just wanted to show you how it might play out if Alabama, Georgia, and LSU finished ranked in the top 4.

 

You may ask if any conference has ever had three of the top four teams in a season, and not only will we answer, we’ll go one better.  In 1971, Nebraska finished number one; Oklahoma was number two; and Colorado was number three, all from the old Big 8 Conference.  It almost happened in 2011, when Alabama finished number one, LSU number two, and Arkansas number five.   That Arkansas team lost to just Alabama and LSU that year. 

 

Take a look at how this plays out.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Wyoming]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Toledo
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Hawaii	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	UAB
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Tulane
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	Maryland
Military	ACC	AAC	Syracuse	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Ole Miss
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Utah	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Colorado
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Wake Forest	Baylor
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Boise St.	Notre Dame
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	West Virginia
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona	Michigan St.
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Army]	Florida St.
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Clemson	Wisconsin
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina St.	Washington
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	[Arkansas St.]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	Fresno St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Arizona St.
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Virginia
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Florida
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Kansas St.]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Mississippi St.	Michigan
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Indiana	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio	Appalachian St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Georgia
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	LSU
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 30, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Thursday	October 3
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Alabama	Georgia Southern	-19.4	-15.7	-19.6
East Carolina	Temple	-16.8	-13.6	-18.1
Friday	October 4
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	Central Florida	-0.5	-1.3	-1.4
San Jose St.	New Mexico	5.4	4.3	5.5
Saturday	October 5
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Connecticut	South Florida	-11.8	-8.9	-13.2
Louisville	Boston College	-1.5	-1.7	-2.9
Georgia Tech	North Carolina	-8.7	-10.7	-9.4
West Virginia	Texas	-4.9	-5.3	-5.2
Penn St.	Purdue	18.6	17.5	19.1
Northern Illinois	Ball St.	9.4	8.9	9.9
Army	Tulane	4.0	3.7	3.0
Duke	Pittsburgh	6.1	6.1	6.3
Kansas St.	Baylor	3.4	3.0	3.7
Rutgers	Maryland	-13.8	-13.5	-13.6
Texas Tech	Oklahoma St.	-4.5	-5.0	-5.6
Wisconsin	Kent St.	33.9	33.4	33.2
Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	-6.7	-6.4	-6.8
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia Tech	11.4	10.5	12.2
Missouri	Troy	25.2	22.5	26.6
New Mexico St.	Liberty	-8.1	-7.0	-8.3
Colorado	Arizona	0.4	0.2	0.4
Colorado St.	San Diego St.	-14.5	-12.5	-14.3
UCLA	Oregon St.	6.4	4.8	6.4
Oregon	California	13.5	13.9	13.7
Stanford	Washington	-6.4	-6.9	-8.1
SMU	Tulsa	15.1	14.3	15.4
Michigan	Iowa	3.7	3.5	3.5
Minnesota	Illinois	15.9	14.4	15.7
UAB	Rice	9.6	9.8	10.5
Nebraska	Northwestern	0.0	1.9	0.5
Tennessee	Georgia	-19.6	-18.2	-22.1
Navy	Air Force	-5.3	-3.8	-6.0
Toledo	Western Michigan	-3.8	-2.3	-2.6
Kansas	Oklahoma	-28.4	-26.5	-28.8
Buffalo	Ohio	-2.7	-1.3	-2.7
Iowa St.	TCU	8.1	5.1	7.5
Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	3.6	4.0	4.5
Middle Tennessee	Marshall	0.2	-0.4	-1.0
Notre Dame	Bowling Green	51.5	50.0	51.8
Georgia St.	Arkansas St.	-4.0	-2.7	-4.6
Old Dominion	Western Kentucky	-4.6	-4.8	-5.8
Florida	Auburn	2.0	1.1	1.7
Florida Int’l.	Massachusetts	25.5	22.9	26.4
Louisiana-Monroe	Memphis	-15.0	-14.4	-16.1
Ohio St.	Michigan St.	20.5	19.9	21.3
LSU	Utah St.	24.0	22.4	21.7
UTEP	UTSA	-4.9	-2.1	-3.7
UNLV	Boise St.	-21.4	-18.8	-22.0

 

There are no FBS vs. FCS Games Scheduled This Week

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	134.7	133.5	135.5	134.6
2	Alabama	135.4	131.9	136.1	134.4
3	Clemson	131.9	128.8	132.6	131.1
4	Georgia	128.0	126.3	128.6	127.6
5	L S U	126.8	124.2	125.8	125.6
6	Oklahoma	124.8	124.0	124.9	124.6
7	Auburn	122.4	120.5	122.2	121.7
8	Penn St.	121.1	120.0	120.9	120.7
9	Florida	121.5	118.6	120.9	120.3
10	Notre Dame	120.9	119.1	121.0	120.3
11	Wisconsin	119.2	118.7	119.0	119.0
12	Michigan	119.1	117.2	119.3	118.5
13	Utah	118.4	116.9	118.8	118.0
14	Iowa	118.5	116.7	118.8	118.0
15	Michigan St.	117.2	116.6	117.2	117.0
16	Oregon	116.5	116.5	117.6	116.9
17	Missouri	116.6	114.2	116.9	115.9
18	Texas A&M	116.6	115.0	115.1	115.6
19	Washington	113.8	113.5	115.1	114.1
20	Mississippi St.	112.6	108.7	117.6	113.0
21	Texas	112.7	112.8	112.7	112.7
22	Iowa St.	112.3	112.6	112.2	112.4
23	Central Florida	111.8	111.0	112.9	111.9
24	Oklahoma St.	111.3	111.9	111.1	111.4
25	South Carolina	112.0	110.3	111.7	111.3
26	Kansas St.	110.6	110.3	110.4	110.4
27	Washington St.	110.6	109.6	110.7	110.3
28	Baylor	110.2	110.3	109.7	110.1
29	Minnesota	109.9	109.3	108.8	109.3
30	T C U	107.2	110.5	107.7	108.5
31	Arizona St.	108.1	107.5	109.0	108.2
32	Duke	108.2	107.8	108.3	108.1
33	Miami (Fla.)	107.9	107.1	108.8	107.9
34	Cincinnati	108.3	106.7	108.5	107.8
35	Virginia	107.5	107.7	107.6	107.6
36	U S C	106.9	107.7	107.2	107.3
37	Northwestern	107.7	106.9	106.8	107.1
38	Indiana	107.5	106.0	106.6	106.7
39	Boise St.	106.5	105.8	106.8	106.4
40	Syracuse	106.4	105.9	106.4	106.2
41	California	105.9	105.6	106.9	106.1
42	Utah St.	105.8	104.8	107.2	105.9
43	North Carolina	105.4	105.5	106.5	105.8
44	SMU	105.4	105.2	106.6	105.7
45	Purdue	105.6	105.5	104.8	105.3
46	Memphis	105.0	105.0	105.8	105.3
47	Kentucky	106.3	104.7	104.7	105.2
48	Maryland	105.6	105.0	104.6	105.1
49	Nebraska	104.8	105.8	104.3	105.0
50	Pittsburgh	105.1	104.7	105.0	104.9
51	Tennessee	105.3	105.1	103.5	104.6
52	West Virginia	104.9	104.5	104.5	104.6
53	Appalachian St.	105.2	103.8	104.6	104.5
54	Wake Forest	104.4	103.9	105.0	104.4
55	Florida St.	104.2	104.5	104.2	104.3
56	Stanford	104.5	103.6	104.0	104.0
57	Texas Tech	103.8	103.9	102.6	103.4
58	Ole Miss	103.0	102.0	102.5	102.5
59	Arizona	102.4	102.5	102.4	102.4
60	Temple	101.9	100.9	103.0	101.9
61	Vanderbilt	102.4	101.0	101.0	101.5
62	Army	101.4	101.5	101.0	101.3
63	Boston College	100.7	100.6	101.3	100.9
64	Tulane	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.8
65	North Carolina St.	100.4	100.1	100.5	100.3
66	Louisiana	100.1	100.3	100.0	100.1
67	Colorado	99.8	99.7	99.9	99.8
68	Western Michigan	100.1	99.0	99.9	99.7
69	Virginia Tech	99.5	99.6	99.6	99.6
70	BYU	99.5	99.4	99.4	99.4
71	Houston	98.1	99.2	100.8	99.3
72	Hawaii	98.9	100.6	98.3	99.3
73	Fresno St.	98.9	99.5	99.3	99.2
74	Air Force	98.1	99.4	99.0	98.8
75	San Diego St.	98.2	99.9	98.1	98.7
76	U C L A	99.0	98.7	98.2	98.7
77	Wyoming	97.5	99.6	98.1	98.4
78	Arkansas	97.2	98.0	96.6	97.3
79	Illinois	97.0	97.9	96.0	97.0
80	Louisville	96.2	95.9	95.4	95.8
81	Oregon St.	95.7	96.9	94.8	95.8
82	Georgia Southern	95.2	94.5	94.5	94.8
83	Troy	94.4	94.6	93.3	94.1
84	Southern Miss.	94.4	92.6	94.5	93.8
85	Northern Illinois	94.1	93.1	94.3	93.8
86	Toledo	93.3	93.8	94.3	93.8
87	Ohio	93.7	92.8	94.6	93.7
88	Georgia Tech	94.2	92.3	94.6	93.7
89	Kansas	93.5	94.5	93.1	93.7
90	Tulsa	92.8	93.5	93.7	93.3
91	North Texas	92.6	92.2	93.5	92.8
92	Florida Atlantic	92.3	91.8	93.2	92.4
93	Arkansas St.	92.4	92.6	92.3	92.4
94	Marshall	90.7	90.2	91.8	90.9
95	Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.8	90.9	90.9
96	Navy	89.8	92.6	89.9	90.8
97	Eastern Michigan	89.7	90.1	90.4	90.1
98	Florida Int’l.	89.3	88.9	89.4	89.2
99	Liberty	88.6	89.9	88.9	89.1
100	Buffalo	88.6	89.0	89.4	89.0
101	Rutgers	89.3	89.0	88.6	89.0
102	South Florida	88.4	89.4	88.5	88.8
103	Kent St.	88.3	88.3	88.8	88.5
104	U A B	87.6	89.3	88.1	88.4
105	Middle Tennessee	88.4	87.3	88.3	88.0
106	Nevada	87.6	89.3	87.0	88.0
107	Miami (Ohio)	88.3	86.6	88.5	87.8
108	Louisiana-Monroe	87.4	88.2	87.2	87.6
109	Western Kentucky	86.7	87.6	88.2	87.5
110	Ball St.	87.2	86.7	86.9	86.9
111	Coastal Carolina	86.5	87.7	85.9	86.7
112	Charlotte	85.9	86.4	86.2	86.2
113	Georgia St.	86.0	87.3	85.1	86.1
114	San Jose St.	85.0	86.9	84.3	85.4
115	Texas St.	83.5	84.4	83.3	83.7
116	U N L V	82.5	84.5	82.3	83.1
117	New Mexico	82.1	85.1	81.2	82.8
118	East Carolina	82.2	84.2	81.9	82.8
119	Colorado St.	80.6	84.5	80.8	82.0
120	Central Michigan	81.1	81.8	81.6	81.5
121	Rice	80.5	82.0	80.1	80.9
122	Old Dominion	79.6	80.2	79.8	79.9
123	New Mexico St.	77.5	79.9	77.6	78.3
124	Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.7	74.1	75.1
125	Connecticut	73.6	77.5	72.3	74.5
126	South Alabama	73.3	76.3	72.4	74.0
127	Akron	73.6	73.9	72.8	73.4
128	Bowling Green	72.3	72.0	72.1	72.2
129	U T E P	67.6	72.6	68.4	69.5
130	Massachusetts	66.8	69.0	66.0	67.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	114.0
2	BTen	110.9
3	B12	109.2
4	P12	106.8
5	ACC	105.1
6	AAC	96.9
7	MWC	94.0
8	Ind	92.6
9	SUN	90.4
10	MAC	87.5
11	CUSA	86.1

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Boise St.
2	Memphis
3	SMU
4	Central Florida
5	Hawaii

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

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American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.8	111.0	112.9	111.9	1-0	4-1
Cincinnati	108.3	106.7	108.5	107.8	0-0	3-1
Temple	101.9	100.9	103.0	101.9	0-0	3-1
South Florida	88.4	89.4	88.5	88.8	0-1	1-3
East Carolina	82.2	84.2	81.9	82.8	0-1	3-2
Connecticut	73.6	77.5	72.3	74.5	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	105.4	105.2	106.6	105.7	1-0	5-0
Memphis	105.0	105.0	105.8	105.3	1-0	4-0
Tulane	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.8	1-0	3-1
Houston	98.1	99.2	100.8	99.3	0-1	2-3
Tulsa	92.8	93.5	93.7	93.3	0-0	2-2
Navy	89.8	92.6	89.9	90.8	1-1	2-1
AAC Averages	96.5	97.2	97.1	96.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	131.9	128.8	132.6	131.1	3-0	5-0
Syracuse	106.4	105.9	106.4	106.2	0-1	3-2
Wake Forest	104.4	103.9	105.0	104.4	1-0	5-0
Florida St.	104.2	104.5	104.2	104.3	2-1	3-2
Boston College	100.7	100.6	101.3	100.9	1-1	3-2
North Carolina St.	100.4	100.1	100.5	100.3	0-1	3-2
Louisville	96.2	95.9	95.4	95.8	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Duke	108.2	107.8	108.3	108.1	1-0	3-1
Miami (Fla.)	107.9	107.1	108.8	107.9	0-1	2-2
Virginia	107.5	107.7	107.6	107.6	2-0	4-1
North Carolina	105.4	105.5	106.5	105.8	1-1	2-3
Pittsburgh	105.1	104.7	105.0	104.9	0-1	3-2
Virginia Tech	99.5	99.6	99.6	99.6	0-2	2-2
Georgia Tech	94.2	92.3	94.6	93.7	0-1	1-3
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	124.8	124.0	124.9	124.6	1-0	4-0
Texas	112.7	112.8	112.7	112.7	1-0	3-1
Iowa St.	112.3	112.6	112.2	112.4	0-1	2-2
Oklahoma St.	111.3	111.9	111.1	111.4	1-1	4-1
Kansas St.	110.6	110.3	110.4	110.4	0-1	3-1
Baylor	110.2	110.3	109.7	110.1	1-0	4-0
T C U	107.2	110.5	107.7	108.5	1-0	3-1
West Virginia	104.9	104.5	104.5	104.6	1-0	3-1
Texas Tech	103.8	103.9	102.6	103.4	0-1	2-2
Kansas	93.5	94.5	93.1	93.7	0-2	2-3
Big 12 Averages	109.1	109.5	108.9	109.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	134.7	133.5	135.5	134.6	2-0	5-0
Penn St.	121.1	120.0	120.9	120.7	1-0	4-0
Michigan	119.1	117.2	119.3	118.5	1-1	3-1
Michigan St.	117.2	116.6	117.2	117.0	2-0	4-1
Indiana	107.5	106.0	106.6	106.7	0-2	3-2
Maryland	105.6	105.0	104.6	105.1	0-1	2-2
Rutgers	89.3	89.0	88.6	89.0	0-2	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	119.2	118.7	119.0	119.0	2-0	4-0
Iowa	118.5	116.7	118.8	118.0	1-0	4-0
Minnesota	109.9	109.3	108.8	109.3	1-0	4-0
Northwestern	107.7	106.9	106.8	107.1	0-2	1-3
Purdue	105.6	105.5	104.8	105.3	0-1	1-3
Nebraska	104.8	105.8	104.3	105.0	1-1	3-2
Illinois	97.0	97.9	96.0	97.0	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	111.2	110.6	110.8	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate