The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 6, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 7, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:16 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

October 9 to

October 12

Wednesday

October 9

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana

Appalchian St.

-2.1

-0.5

-1.6

 

 

Thursday

October 10

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Texas St.

Louisiana-Monroe

-1.5

-1.3

-1.5

North Carolina St.

Syracuse

-3.0

-2.7

-2.9

 

 

Friday

October 11

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia

1.0

0.0

1.5

New Mexico

Colorado St.

3.6

2.8

2.5

Oregon

Colorado

19.6

19.8

20.8

 

 

Saturday

October 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Indiana

Rutgers

24.6

23.7

24.7

Bowling Green

Toledo

-20.9

-21.7

-22.2

Illinois

Michigan

-20.3

-17.6

-21.7

Wake Forest

Louisville

10.8

10.5

11.9

Tulsa

Navy

5.1

3.1

5.8

Texas (n)

Oklahoma

-11.7

-10.6

-11.4

Temple

Memphis

-0.2

-1.3

-0.2

Minnesota

Nebraska

8.5

6.9

8.0

Duke

Georgia Tech

16.9

18.3

16.7

Coastal Carolina

Georgia St.

1.2

1.1

1.3

Purdue

Maryland

-0.8

-0.5

-0.8

West Virginia

Iowa St.

-6.4

-7.5

-7.1

Boise St.

Hawaii

12.0

9.8

13.1

Eastern Michigan

Ball St.

0.0

0.8

0.6

Marshall

Old Dominion

14.1

12.9

14.7

Central Michigan

New Mexico St.

10.1

8.5

10.7

Arizona St.

Washington St.

0.6

1.0

1.3

Oregon St.

Utah

-17.7

-15.0

-18.8

Arizona

Washington

-6.7

-6.0

-7.4

Missouri

Ole Miss

14.5

12.9

15.2

Georgia

South Carolina

19.2

19.3

20.1

Tennessee

Mississippi St.

-5.2

-1.5

-11.9

Akron

Kent St.

-11.5

-11.2

-12.6

Ohio

Northern Illinois

3.8

3.9

4.5

Kentucky

Arkansas

12.1

9.7

11.1

Baylor

Texas Tech

9.7

9.8

10.5

Western Michigan

Miami (O)

12.5

13.2

12.0

South Florida

BYU

-7.2

-6.1

-6.9

Houston

Cincinnati

-7.2

-4.7

-4.9

Tulane

Connecticut

32.1

28.8

34.3

Vanderbilt

UNLV

20.0

16.8

18.9

Wisconsin

Michigan St.

6.6

6.9

6.7

LSU

Florida

8.3

8.7

8.1

Nevada

San Jose St.

5.6

5.2

5.5

Texas A&M

Alabama

-15.8

-13.9

-18.0

Florida Atlantic

Middle Tennessee

6.0

6.5

6.8

UTSA

UAB

-10.7

-10.1

-11.5

Southern Miss.

North Texas

4.8

3.4

4.0

Western Kentucky

Army

-8.9

-8.0

-6.9

Florida Int’l.

Charlotte

7.8

7.0

7.6

Louisiana Tech

Massachusetts

29.6

27.4

30.4

Air Force

Fresno St.

0.9

1.7

1.2

Notre Dame

USC

16.8

14.3

16.6

Clemson

Florida St.

30.7

27.3

31.4

Iowa

Penn St.

-1.1

-2.0

-0.8

San Diego St.

Wyoming

3.3

3.1

2.7

FBS vs. FCS

Virginia Tech

Rhode Island

22.0

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

135.0

133.9

135.9

134.9

2

Alabama

135.7

132.2

136.4

134.7

3

Clemson

132.2

129.1

132.9

131.4

4

Georgia

128.6

126.9

129.1

128.2

5

L S U

128.0

125.6

127.4

127.0

6

Oklahoma

124.7

123.9

124.6

124.4

7

Penn St.

122.4

121.5

122.3

122.1

8

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.4

121.7

9

Notre Dame

121.1

119.3

121.2

120.5

10

Auburn

121.2

119.3

120.8

120.4

11

Wisconsin

120.5

120.1

120.5

120.4

12

Michigan

119.4

117.6

119.7

118.9

13

Utah

118.7

117.2

119.1

118.3

14

Iowa

118.4

116.5

118.6

117.8

15

Michigan St.

116.9

116.2

116.8

116.6

16

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

17

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

18

Texas A&M

116.9

115.3

115.4

115.9

19

Iowa St.

114.0

114.6

114.1

114.2

20

Mississippi St.

112.9

109.0

117.9

113.3

21

Texas

113.0

113.2

113.2

113.1

22

Baylor

112.7

112.9

112.4

112.7

23

Washington

112.2

111.8

113.2

112.4

24

South Carolina

112.3

110.6

112.0

111.6

25

Central Florida

111.2

110.3

112.1

111.2

26

Washington St.

110.9

109.9

111.0

110.6

27

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.6

110.0

28

Oklahoma St.

109.7

110.2

109.3

109.7

29

Arizona St.

108.4

107.8

109.3

108.5

30

Cincinnati

108.6

107.1

109.0

108.2

31

Virginia

107.8

108.0

107.9

107.9

32

Kansas St.

107.9

107.5

107.5

107.6

33

U S C

107.2

108.0

107.5

107.6

34

Duke

107.6

107.1

107.5

107.4

35

Maryland

107.8

107.3

107.0

107.4

36

Indiana

107.8

106.3

106.9

107.0

37

Boise St.

106.7

106.2

107.2

106.7

38

Northwestern

107.2

106.4

106.2

106.6

39

Syracuse

106.7

106.2

106.7

106.5

40

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

41

T C U

105.0

108.0

105.3

106.1

42

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

43

Stanford

106.1

105.3

105.9

105.8

44

Miami (Fla.)

105.8

105.0

106.4

105.7

45

Kentucky

106.6

105.0

105.0

105.5

46

Pittsburgh

105.5

105.2

105.6

105.4

47

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

48

Nebraska

105.0

106.0

104.6

105.2

49

Texas Tech

105.4

105.6

104.4

105.1

50

SMU

104.8

104.6

105.9

105.1

51

Appalachian St.

105.4

104.0

104.8

104.7

52

Wake Forest

104.7

104.2

105.3

104.7

53

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.7

104.7

54

Florida St.

104.5

104.8

104.5

104.6

55

West Virginia

104.6

104.1

104.0

104.2

56

Utah St.

104.3

103.1

105.3

104.2

57

Tennessee

104.7

104.5

103.0

104.1

58

Purdue

104.1

103.8

103.2

103.7

59

Arizona

102.6

102.8

102.8

102.7

60

Tulane

101.6

102.2

102.3

102.0

61

Temple

101.7

100.8

102.6

101.7

62

Virginia Tech

100.9

101.0

101.3

101.1

63

North Carolina St.

100.7

100.4

100.8

100.6

64

Louisiana

100.3

100.5

100.2

100.3

65

Boston College

100.2

100.0

100.5

100.2

66

Army

99.9

99.9

99.4

99.8

67

Houston

98.4

99.5

101.1

99.6

68

BYU

99.7

99.6

99.6

99.6

69

Hawaii

99.2

100.9

98.6

99.6

70

Fresno St.

99.2

99.8

99.6

99.5

71

Colorado

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

72

Vanderbilt

99.8

98.3

98.3

98.8

73

San Diego St.

98.2

100.0

98.1

98.8

74

Wyoming

97.8

99.9

98.4

98.7

75

Oregon St.

98.0

99.2

97.3

98.2

76

Western Michigan

98.5

97.4

98.2

98.0

77

Air Force

97.1

98.5

97.8

97.8

78

Arkansas

97.5

98.3

96.9

97.6

79

Louisville

96.4

96.2

95.9

96.1

80

Illinois

96.1

97.0

94.9

96.0

81

U C L A

96.4

96.1

95.4

96.0

82

Toledo

94.6

95.1

95.7

95.1

83

Southern Miss.

94.6

92.8

94.7

94.0

84

Kansas

93.6

94.6

93.4

93.9

85

Troy

94.0

94.2

92.9

93.7

86

Tulsa

93.1

93.8

94.1

93.7

87

Ohio

93.6

92.7

94.3

93.6

88

Georgia Southern

93.9

93.3

93.0

93.4

89

Georgia Tech

93.6

91.8

93.9

93.1

90

North Texas

92.8

92.4

93.7

93.0

91

Florida Atlantic

92.5

92.0

93.4

92.6

92

Northern Illinois

92.3

91.3

92.3

92.0

93

Navy

90.5

93.2

90.8

91.5

94

Louisiana Tech

91.2

91.0

91.1

91.1

95

Florida Int’l.

90.8

90.6

91.0

90.8

96

Arkansas St.

90.6

90.8

90.3

90.6

97

South Florida

89.5

90.5

89.7

89.9

98

Marshall

89.3

88.7

90.2

89.4

99

Middle Tennessee

89.5

88.5

89.6

89.2

100

Buffalo

88.7

89.1

89.7

89.1

101

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

102

Western Kentucky

88.0

89.0

89.6

88.8

103

U A B

87.8

89.6

88.5

88.7

104

Ball St.

88.7

88.2

88.6

88.5

105

Nevada

87.9

89.6

87.3

88.3

106

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

86.8

88.7

88.0

107

Louisiana-Monroe

87.7

88.5

87.5

87.9

108

Georgia St.

87.5

88.8

86.8

87.7

109

Kent St.

87.3

87.2

87.6

87.4

110

Coastal Carolina

86.7

87.9

86.1

86.9

111

Eastern Michigan

86.2

86.5

86.7

86.5

112

Charlotte

86.1

86.6

86.4

86.4

113

San Jose St.

85.3

87.4

84.8

85.8

114

Rutgers

86.1

85.7

85.2

85.7

115

Central Michigan

84.6

85.4

85.3

85.1

116

Texas St.

83.7

84.6

83.5

83.9

117

East Carolina

82.7

84.6

82.6

83.3

118

U N L V

82.3

84.1

81.9

82.8

119

New Mexico

81.8

84.6

80.7

82.4

120

Colorado St.

80.6

84.4

80.8

81.9

121

Rice

80.3

81.7

79.7

80.6

122

Old Dominion

78.3

78.8

78.4

78.5

123

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.1

74.5

75.4

125

South Alabama

74.1

77.0

73.4

74.9

126

Akron

73.8

74.1

73.0

73.6

127

Connecticut

72.0

75.9

70.6

72.8

128

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

129

U T E P

67.1

71.9

67.7

68.9

130

Massachusetts

64.6

66.6

63.7

65.0

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.2

110.3

112.1

111.2

1-1

4-2

Cincinnati

108.6

107.1

109.0

108.2

1-0

4-1

Temple

101.7

100.8

102.6

101.7

1-0

4-1

South Florida

89.5

90.5

89.7

89.9

1-1

2-3

East Carolina

82.7

84.6

82.6

83.3

0-2

3-3

Connecticut

72.0

75.9

70.6

72.8

0-2

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

1-0

5-0

SMU

104.8

104.6

105.9

105.1

2-0

6-0

Tulane

101.6

102.2

102.3

102.0

1-0

4-1

Houston

98.4

99.5

101.1

99.6

0-1

2-3

Tulsa

93.1

93.8

94.1

93.7

0-1

2-3

Navy

90.5

93.2

90.8

91.5

1-1

3-1

AAC Averages

96.6

97.3

97.2

97.0

 

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

132.2

129.1

132.9

131.4

3-0

5-0

Syracuse

106.7

106.2

106.7

106.5

0-1

3-2

Wake Forest

104.7

104.2

105.3

104.7

1-0

5-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.8

104.5

104.6

2-1

3-2

North Carolina St.

100.7

100.4

100.8

100.6

0-1

3-2

Boston College

100.2

100.0

100.5

100.2

1-2

3-3

Louisville

96.4

96.2

95.9

96.1

1-1

3-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.8

108.0

107.9

107.9

2-0

4-1

Duke

107.6

107.1

107.5

107.4

1-1

3-2

North Carolina

105.7

105.7

106.9

106.1

2-1

3-3

Miami (Fla.)

105.8

105.0

106.4

105.7

0-2

2-3

Pittsburgh

105.5

105.2

105.6

105.4

1-1

4-2

Virginia Tech

100.9

101.0

101.3

101.1

1-2

3-2

Georgia Tech

93.6

91.8

93.9

93.1

0-2

1-4

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

124.7

123.9

124.6

124.4

2-0

5-0

Iowa St.

114.0

114.6

114.1

114.2

1-1

3-2

Texas

113.0

113.2

113.2

113.1

2-0

4-1

Baylor

112.7

112.9

112.4

112.7

2-0

5-0

Oklahoma St.

109.7

110.2

109.3

109.7

1-2

4-2

Kansas St.

107.9

107.5

107.5

107.6

0-2

3-2

T C U

105.0

108.0

105.3

106.1

1-1

3-2

Texas Tech

105.4

105.6

104.4

105.1

1-1

3-2

West Virginia

104.6

104.1

104.0

104.2

1-1

3-2

Kansas

93.6

94.6

93.4

93.9

0-3

2-4

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.8

109.1

 

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

135.0

133.9

135.9

134.9

3-0

6-0

Penn St.

122.4

121.5

122.3

122.1

2-0

5-0

Michigan

119.4

117.6

119.7

118.9

2-1

4-1

Michigan St.

116.9

116.2

116.8

116.6

2-1

4-2

Maryland

107.8

107.3

107.0

107.4

1-1

3-2

Indiana

107.8

106.3

106.9

107.0

0-2

3-2

Rutgers

86.1

85.7

85.2

85.7

0-3

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.1

120.5

120.4

2-0

5-0

Iowa

118.4

116.5

118.6

117.8

1-1

4-1

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.6

110.0

2-0

5-0

Northwestern

107.2

106.4

106.2

106.6

0-3

1-4

Nebraska

105.0

106.0

104.6

105.2

2-1

4-2

Purdue

104.1

103.8

103.2

103.7

0-2

1-4

Illinois

96.1

97.0

94.9

96.0

0-2

2-3

Big Ten Averages

111.2

110.6

110.8

110.9

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

92.5

92.0

93.4

92.6

1-0

3-2

Florida Int’l.

90.8

90.6

91.0

90.8

0-2

2-3

Marshall

89.3

88.7

90.2

89.4

0-1

2-3

Middle Tennessee

89.5

88.5

89.6

89.2

1-0

2-3

Western Kentucky

88.0

89.0

89.6

88.8

3-0

3-2

Charlotte

86.1

86.6

86.4

86.4

0-1

2-3

Old Dominion

78.3

78.8

78.4

78.5

0-1

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.6

92.8

94.7

94.0

1-0

3-2

North Texas

92.8

92.4

93.7

93.0

1-0

2-3

Louisiana Tech

91.2

91.0

91.1

91.1

2-0

4-1

U A B

87.8

89.6

88.5

88.7

1-1

4-1

Rice

80.3

81.7

79.7

80.6

0-2

0-6

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.1

74.5

75.4

1-1

2-3

U T E P

67.1

71.9

67.7

68.9

0-2

1-4

CUSA Averages

85.9

86.5

86.3

86.2

 

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.1

119.3

121.2

120.5

x

4-1

Army

99.9

99.9

99.4

99.8

x

3-2

BYU

99.7

99.6

99.6

99.6

x

2-3

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

x

4-2

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

x

0-6

Massachusetts

64.6

66.6

63.7

65.0

x

1-5

Indep. Averages

91.9

92.5

91.7

92.0

 

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.6

92.7

94.3

93.6

1-0

2-3

Buffalo

88.7

89.1

89.7

89.1

0-2

2-4

Miami (Ohio)

88.5

86.8

88.7

88.0

1-0

2-3

Kent St.

87.3

87.2

87.6

87.4

1-0

2-3

Akron

73.8

74.1

73.0

73.6

0-1

0-5

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

0-1

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.5

97.4

98.2

98.0

1-1

3-3

Toledo

94.6

95.1

95.7

95.1

1-0

4-1

Northern Illinois

92.3

91.3

92.3

92.0

0-1

1-4

Ball St.

88.7

88.2

88.6

88.5

1-0

2-3

Eastern Michigan

86.2

86.5

86.7

86.5

0-1

3-2

Central Michigan

84.6

85.4

85.3

85.1

2-1

3-3

MAC Averages

87.4

87.1

87.7

87.4

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.7

106.2

107.2

106.7

2-0

5-0

Utah St.

104.3

103.1

105.3

104.2

2-0

3-2

Wyoming

97.8

99.9

98.4

98.7

1-0

4-1

Air Force

97.1

98.5

97.8

97.8

1-1

3-2

New Mexico

81.8

84.6

80.7

82.4

0-1

2-3

Colorado St.

80.6

84.4

80.8

81.9

0-2

1-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Hawaii

99.2

100.9

98.6

99.6

1-0

4-1

Fresno St.

99.2

99.8

99.6

99.5

0-0

2-2

San Diego St.

98.2

100.0

98.1

98.8

1-1

4-1

Nevada

87.9

89.6

87.3

88.3

0-1

3-2

San Jose St.

85.3

87.4

84.8

85.8

1-1

3-2

U N L V

82.3

84.1

81.9

82.8

0-2

1-4

MWC Averages

93.4

94.9

93.4

93.9

 

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

2-0

4-1

Washington

112.2

111.8

113.2

112.4

1-2

4-2

Washington St.

110.9

109.9

111.0

110.6

0-2

3-2

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

1-2

4-2

Stanford

106.1

105.3

105.9

105.8

2-2

3-3

Oregon St.

98.0

99.2

97.3

98.2

1-1

2-3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

118.7

117.2

119.1

118.3

1-1

4-1

Arizona St.

108.4

107.8

109.3

108.5

1-1

4-1

U S C

107.2

108.0

107.5

107.6

2-1

3-2

Arizona

102.6

102.8

102.8

102.7

2-0

4-1

Colorado

99.6

99.4

99.5

99.5

1-1

3-2

U C L A

96.4

96.1

95.4

96.0

1-2

1-5

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

128.6

126.9

129.1

128.2

2-0

5-0

Florida

122.8

119.9

122.4

121.7

4-0

6-0

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

1-0

4-1

South Carolina

112.3

110.6

112.0

111.6

1-2

2-3

Kentucky

106.6

105.0

105.0

105.5

0-3

2-3

Tennessee

104.7

104.5

103.0

104.1

0-2

1-4

Vanderbilt

99.8

98.3

98.3

98.8

0-3

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.7

132.2

136.4

134.7

2-0

5-0

L S U

128.0

125.6

127.4

127.0

1-0

5-0

Auburn

121.2

119.3

120.8

120.4

2-1

5-1

Texas A&M

116.9

115.3

115.4

115.9

1-1

3-2

Mississippi St.

112.9

109.0

117.9

113.3

1-1

3-2

Ole Miss

105.1

104.2

104.7

104.7

2-1

3-3

Arkansas

97.5

98.3

96.9

97.6

0-2

2-3

SEC Averages

114.9

113.1

114.7

114.2

 

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.4

104.0

104.8

104.7

1-0

4-0

Troy

94.0

94.2

92.9

93.7

0-1

2-3

Georgia Southern

93.9

93.3

93.0

93.4

1-1

2-3

Georgia St.

87.5

88.8

86.8

87.7

1-1

3-2

Coastal Carolina

86.7

87.9

86.1

86.9

0-1

3-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.3

100.5

100.2

100.3

1-0

4-1

Arkansas St.

90.6

90.8

90.3

90.6

1-1

3-3

Louisiana-Monroe

87.7

88.5

87.5

87.9

1-0

2-3

Texas St.

83.7

84.6

83.5

83.9

1-0

2-3

South Alabama

74.1

77.0

73.4

74.9

0-2

1-5

SBC Averages

90.4

91.0

89.9

90.4

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

114.2

2

BTen

110.9

3

B12

109.1

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.1

6

AAC

97.0

7

MWC

93.9

8

Ind

92.0

9

SUN

90.4

10

MAC

87.4

11

CUSA

86.2

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

Cincinnati

5

Hawaii

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

The What-if It Were To Happen Edition

 

Submitted for your disapproval, what happens if Clemson loses a game this year to say Florida State, North Carolina St., South Carolina, or Virginia in the ACC Championship Game?  With their weak schedule, the Tigers would most likely not receive a bid to the NCAA Playoffs.

 

The Pac-12 has already eliminated itself from consideration.  We won’t even give Oregon a chance at 11-1, unless a lot of teams fall victims to upsets–too many to contemplate.

 

The Big Ten has three incredible teams in Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Additionally, Minnesota is still undefeated, and Michigan is, well, Michigan.  More than likely one Big Ten team will run the table and finish 13-0 to guarantee a spot in the Playoffs.  There could be a one-loss team in consideration, but with power at the top, it is possible that there will be only an undefeated or one loss team and multiple two-loss teams.

 

In the Big 12, Oklahoma always tends to slip up against somebody but then recovers to win the Big 12 Championship Game.  If the Sooners were to lose to Texas, Baylor, or Iowa State, or if they lost in the Big 12 Championship Game, would a one-loss OU team be good enough to make the top four?

 

Now consider the giant.  Let’s say Alabama, LSU, and Georgia combine to have one undefeated team and two, one-loss teams.  Say, Alabama goes 12-0 and wins the SEC Championship Game over 12-0 Georgia, while LSU only loses at Alabama in a close game to have a record of 11-1.

 

Could it be that THREE SEC teams would finish ranked in the top 4?  That’s the scenario we present today in our bowl and playoff projections.  We are not saying this is a certainty; we just wanted to show you how it might play out if Alabama, Georgia, and LSU finished ranked in the top 4.

 

You may ask if any conference has ever had three of the top four teams in a season, and not only will we answer, we’ll go one better.  In 1971, Nebraska finished number one; Oklahoma was number two; and Colorado was number three, all from the old Big 8 Conference.  It almost happened in 2011, when Alabama finished number one, LSU number two, and Arkansas number five.   That Arkansas team lost to just Alabama and LSU that year. 

 

Take a look at how this plays out.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Wyoming]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Troy

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Tulane

Independence

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Maryland

Military

ACC

AAC

Syracuse

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Nebraska

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Ole Miss

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Utah

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Colorado

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Wake Forest

Baylor

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

Notre Dame

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

West Virginia

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona

Michigan St.

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Army]

Florida St.

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Clemson

Wisconsin

Belk

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

North Carolina St.

Washington

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Texas Tech

[Arkansas St.]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

Fresno St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas

Arizona St.

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Virginia

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Oregon

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Florida

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Kansas St.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Mississippi St.

Michigan

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Indiana

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio

Appalachian St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Georgia

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

LSU

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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September 29, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 30, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:31 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Thursday

October 3

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

South Alabama

Georgia Southern

-19.4

-15.7

-19.6

East Carolina

Temple

-16.8

-13.6

-18.1

 

 

Friday

October 4

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Cincinnati

Central Florida

-0.5

-1.3

-1.4

San Jose St.

New Mexico

5.4

4.3

5.5

 

 

Saturday

October 5

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Connecticut

South Florida

-11.8

-8.9

-13.2

Louisville

Boston College

-1.5

-1.7

-2.9

Georgia Tech

North Carolina

-8.7

-10.7

-9.4

West Virginia

Texas

-4.9

-5.3

-5.2

Penn St.

Purdue

18.6

17.5

19.1

Northern Illinois

Ball St.

9.4

8.9

9.9

Army

Tulane

4.0

3.7

3.0

Duke

Pittsburgh

6.1

6.1

6.3

Kansas St.

Baylor

3.4

3.0

3.7

Rutgers

Maryland

-13.8

-13.5

-13.6

Texas Tech

Oklahoma St.

-4.5

-5.0

-5.6

Wisconsin

Kent St.

33.9

33.4

33.2

Central Michigan

Eastern Michigan

-6.7

-6.4

-6.8

Miami (Fla.)

Virginia Tech

11.4

10.5

12.2

Missouri

Troy

25.2

22.5

26.6

New Mexico St.

Liberty

-8.1

-7.0

-8.3

Colorado

Arizona

0.4

0.2

0.4

Colorado St.

San Diego St.

-14.5

-12.5

-14.3

UCLA

Oregon St.

6.4

4.8

6.4

Oregon

California

13.5

13.9

13.7

Stanford

Washington

-6.4

-6.9

-8.1

SMU

Tulsa

15.1

14.3

15.4

Michigan

Iowa

3.7

3.5

3.5

Minnesota

Illinois

15.9

14.4

15.7

UAB

Rice

9.6

9.8

10.5

Nebraska

Northwestern

0.0

1.9

0.5

Tennessee

Georgia

-19.6

-18.2

-22.1

Navy

Air Force

-5.3

-3.8

-6.0

Toledo

Western Michigan

-3.8

-2.3

-2.6

Kansas

Oklahoma

-28.4

-26.5

-28.8

Buffalo

Ohio

-2.7

-1.3

-2.7

Iowa St.

TCU

8.1

5.1

7.5

Ole Miss

Vanderbilt

3.6

4.0

4.5

Middle Tennessee

Marshall

0.2

-0.4

-1.0

Notre Dame

Bowling Green

51.5

50.0

51.8

Georgia St.

Arkansas St.

-4.0

-2.7

-4.6

Old Dominion

Western Kentucky

-4.6

-4.8

-5.8

Florida

Auburn

2.0

1.1

1.7

Florida Int’l.

Massachusetts

25.5

22.9

26.4

Louisiana-Monroe

Memphis

-15.0

-14.4

-16.1

Ohio St.

Michigan St.

20.5

19.9

21.3

LSU

Utah St.

24.0

22.4

21.7

UTEP

UTSA

-4.9

-2.1

-3.7

UNLV

Boise St.

-21.4

-18.8

-22.0

 

There are no FBS vs. FCS Games Scheduled This Week

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

134.7

133.5

135.5

134.6

2

Alabama

135.4

131.9

136.1

134.4

3

Clemson

131.9

128.8

132.6

131.1

4

Georgia

128.0

126.3

128.6

127.6

5

L S U

126.8

124.2

125.8

125.6

6

Oklahoma

124.8

124.0

124.9

124.6

7

Auburn

122.4

120.5

122.2

121.7

8

Penn St.

121.1

120.0

120.9

120.7

9

Florida

121.5

118.6

120.9

120.3

10

Notre Dame

120.9

119.1

121.0

120.3

11

Wisconsin

119.2

118.7

119.0

119.0

12

Michigan

119.1

117.2

119.3

118.5

13

Utah

118.4

116.9

118.8

118.0

14

Iowa

118.5

116.7

118.8

118.0

15

Michigan St.

117.2

116.6

117.2

117.0

16

Oregon

116.5

116.5

117.6

116.9

17

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

18

Texas A&M

116.6

115.0

115.1

115.6

19

Washington

113.8

113.5

115.1

114.1

20

Mississippi St.

112.6

108.7

117.6

113.0

21

Texas

112.7

112.8

112.7

112.7

22

Iowa St.

112.3

112.6

112.2

112.4

23

Central Florida

111.8

111.0

112.9

111.9

24

Oklahoma St.

111.3

111.9

111.1

111.4

25

South Carolina

112.0

110.3

111.7

111.3

26

Kansas St.

110.6

110.3

110.4

110.4

27

Washington St.

110.6

109.6

110.7

110.3

28

Baylor

110.2

110.3

109.7

110.1

29

Minnesota

109.9

109.3

108.8

109.3

30

T C U

107.2

110.5

107.7

108.5

31

Arizona St.

108.1

107.5

109.0

108.2

32

Duke

108.2

107.8

108.3

108.1

33

Miami (Fla.)

107.9

107.1

108.8

107.9

34

Cincinnati

108.3

106.7

108.5

107.8

35

Virginia

107.5

107.7

107.6

107.6

36

U S C

106.9

107.7

107.2

107.3

37

Northwestern

107.7

106.9

106.8

107.1

38

Indiana

107.5

106.0

106.6

106.7

39

Boise St.

106.5

105.8

106.8

106.4

40

Syracuse

106.4

105.9

106.4

106.2

41

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

42

Utah St.

105.8

104.8

107.2

105.9

43

North Carolina

105.4

105.5

106.5

105.8

44

SMU

105.4

105.2

106.6

105.7

45

Purdue

105.6

105.5

104.8

105.3

46

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

47

Kentucky

106.3

104.7

104.7

105.2

48

Maryland

105.6

105.0

104.6

105.1

49

Nebraska

104.8

105.8

104.3

105.0

50

Pittsburgh

105.1

104.7

105.0

104.9

51

Tennessee

105.3

105.1

103.5

104.6

52

West Virginia

104.9

104.5

104.5

104.6

53

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.8

104.6

104.5

54

Wake Forest

104.4

103.9

105.0

104.4

55

Florida St.

104.2

104.5

104.2

104.3

56

Stanford

104.5

103.6

104.0

104.0

57

Texas Tech

103.8

103.9

102.6

103.4

58

Ole Miss

103.0

102.0

102.5

102.5

59

Arizona

102.4

102.5

102.4

102.4

60

Temple

101.9

100.9

103.0

101.9

61

Vanderbilt

102.4

101.0

101.0

101.5

62

Army

101.4

101.5

101.0

101.3

63

Boston College

100.7

100.6

101.3

100.9

64

Tulane

100.4

100.9

101.0

100.8

65

North Carolina St.

100.4

100.1

100.5

100.3

66

Louisiana

100.1

100.3

100.0

100.1

67

Colorado

99.8

99.7

99.9

99.8

68

Western Michigan

100.1

99.0

99.9

99.7

69

Virginia Tech

99.5

99.6

99.6

99.6

70

BYU

99.5

99.4

99.4

99.4

71

Houston

98.1

99.2

100.8

99.3

72

Hawaii

98.9

100.6

98.3

99.3

73

Fresno St.

98.9

99.5

99.3

99.2

74

Air Force

98.1

99.4

99.0

98.8

75

San Diego St.

98.2

99.9

98.1

98.7

76

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.2

98.7

77

Wyoming

97.5

99.6

98.1

98.4

78

Arkansas

97.2

98.0

96.6

97.3

79

Illinois

97.0

97.9

96.0

97.0

80

Louisville

96.2

95.9

95.4

95.8

81

Oregon St.

95.7

96.9

94.8

95.8

82

Georgia Southern

95.2

94.5

94.5

94.8

83

Troy

94.4

94.6

93.3

94.1

84

Southern Miss.

94.4

92.6

94.5

93.8

85

Northern Illinois

94.1

93.1

94.3

93.8

86

Toledo

93.3

93.8

94.3

93.8

87

Ohio

93.7

92.8

94.6

93.7

88

Georgia Tech

94.2

92.3

94.6

93.7

89

Kansas

93.5

94.5

93.1

93.7

90

Tulsa

92.8

93.5

93.7

93.3

91

North Texas

92.6

92.2

93.5

92.8

92

Florida Atlantic

92.3

91.8

93.2

92.4

93

Arkansas St.

92.4

92.6

92.3

92.4

94

Marshall

90.7

90.2

91.8

90.9

95

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.8

90.9

90.9

96

Navy

89.8

92.6

89.9

90.8

97

Eastern Michigan

89.7

90.1

90.4

90.1

98

Florida Int’l.

89.3

88.9

89.4

89.2

99

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

100

Buffalo

88.6

89.0

89.4

89.0

101

Rutgers

89.3

89.0

88.6

89.0

102

South Florida

88.4

89.4

88.5

88.8

103

Kent St.

88.3

88.3

88.8

88.5

104

U A B

87.6

89.3

88.1

88.4

105

Middle Tennessee

88.4

87.3

88.3

88.0

106

Nevada

87.6

89.3

87.0

88.0

107

Miami (Ohio)

88.3

86.6

88.5

87.8

108

Louisiana-Monroe

87.4

88.2

87.2

87.6

109

Western Kentucky

86.7

87.6

88.2

87.5

110

Ball St.

87.2

86.7

86.9

86.9

111

Coastal Carolina

86.5

87.7

85.9

86.7

112

Charlotte

85.9

86.4

86.2

86.2

113

Georgia St.

86.0

87.3

85.1

86.1

114

San Jose St.

85.0

86.9

84.3

85.4

115

Texas St.

83.5

84.4

83.3

83.7

116

U N L V

82.5

84.5

82.3

83.1

117

New Mexico

82.1

85.1

81.2

82.8

118

East Carolina

82.2

84.2

81.9

82.8

119

Colorado St.

80.6

84.5

80.8

82.0

120

Central Michigan

81.1

81.8

81.6

81.5

121

Rice

80.5

82.0

80.1

80.9

122

Old Dominion

79.6

80.2

79.8

79.9

123

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

124

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.7

74.1

75.1

125

Connecticut

73.6

77.5

72.3

74.5

126

South Alabama

73.3

76.3

72.4

74.0

127

Akron

73.6

73.9

72.8

73.4

128

Bowling Green

72.3

72.0

72.1

72.2

129

U T E P

67.6

72.6

68.4

69.5

130

Massachusetts

66.8

69.0

66.0

67.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

114.0

2

BTen

110.9

3

B12

109.2

4

P12

106.8

5

ACC

105.1

6

AAC

96.9

7

MWC

94.0

8

Ind

92.6

9

SUN

90.4

10

MAC

87.5

11

CUSA

86.1

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

Central Florida

5

Hawaii

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.8

111.0

112.9

111.9

1-0

4-1

Cincinnati

108.3

106.7

108.5

107.8

0-0

3-1

Temple

101.9

100.9

103.0

101.9

0-0

3-1

South Florida

88.4

89.4

88.5

88.8

0-1

1-3

East Carolina

82.2

84.2

81.9

82.8

0-1

3-2

Connecticut

73.6

77.5

72.3

74.5

0-1

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

105.4

105.2

106.6

105.7

1-0

5-0

Memphis

105.0

105.0

105.8

105.3

1-0

4-0

Tulane

100.4

100.9

101.0

100.8

1-0

3-1

Houston

98.1

99.2

100.8

99.3

0-1

2-3

Tulsa

92.8

93.5

93.7

93.3

0-0

2-2

Navy

89.8

92.6

89.9

90.8

1-1

2-1

AAC Averages

96.5

97.2

97.1

96.9

 

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

131.9

128.8

132.6

131.1

3-0

5-0

Syracuse

106.4

105.9

106.4

106.2

0-1

3-2

Wake Forest

104.4

103.9

105.0

104.4

1-0

5-0

Florida St.

104.2

104.5

104.2

104.3

2-1

3-2

Boston College

100.7

100.6

101.3

100.9

1-1

3-2

North Carolina St.

100.4

100.1

100.5

100.3

0-1

3-2

Louisville

96.2

95.9

95.4

95.8

0-1

2-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Duke

108.2

107.8

108.3

108.1

1-0

3-1

Miami (Fla.)

107.9

107.1

108.8

107.9

0-1

2-2

Virginia

107.5

107.7

107.6

107.6

2-0

4-1

North Carolina

105.4

105.5

106.5

105.8

1-1

2-3

Pittsburgh

105.1

104.7

105.0

104.9

0-1

3-2

Virginia Tech

99.5

99.6

99.6

99.6

0-2

2-2

Georgia Tech

94.2

92.3

94.6

93.7

0-1

1-3

ACC Averages

105.1

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

124.8

124.0

124.9

124.6

1-0

4-0

Texas

112.7

112.8

112.7

112.7

1-0

3-1

Iowa St.

112.3

112.6

112.2

112.4

0-1

2-2

Oklahoma St.

111.3

111.9

111.1

111.4

1-1

4-1

Kansas St.

110.6

110.3

110.4

110.4

0-1

3-1

Baylor

110.2

110.3

109.7

110.1

1-0

4-0

T C U

107.2

110.5

107.7

108.5

1-0

3-1

West Virginia

104.9

104.5

104.5

104.6

1-0

3-1

Texas Tech

103.8

103.9

102.6

103.4

0-1

2-2

Kansas

93.5

94.5

93.1

93.7

0-2

2-3

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.9

109.2

 

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

134.7

133.5

135.5

134.6

2-0

5-0

Penn St.

121.1

120.0

120.9

120.7

1-0

4-0

Michigan

119.1

117.2

119.3

118.5

1-1

3-1

Michigan St.

117.2

116.6

117.2

117.0

2-0

4-1

Indiana

107.5

106.0

106.6

106.7

0-2

3-2

Maryland

105.6

105.0

104.6

105.1

0-1

2-2

Rutgers

89.3

89.0

88.6

89.0

0-2

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

119.2

118.7

119.0

119.0

2-0

4-0

Iowa

118.5

116.7

118.8

118.0

1-0

4-0

Minnesota

109.9

109.3

108.8

109.3

1-0

4-0

Northwestern

107.7

106.9

106.8

107.1

0-2

1-3

Purdue

105.6

105.5

104.8

105.3

0-1

1-3

Nebraska

104.8

105.8

104.3

105.0

1-1

3-2

Illinois

97.0

97.9

96.0

97.0

0-1

2-2

Big Ten Averages

111.2

110.6

110.8

110.9

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

92.3

91.8

93.2

92.4

1-0

3-2

Marshall

90.7

90.2

91.8

90.9

0-0

2-2

Florida Int’l.

89.3

88.9

89.4

89.2

0-2

1-3

Middle Tennessee

88.4

87.3

88.3

88.0

0-0

1-3

Western Kentucky

86.7

87.6

88.2

87.5

2-0

2-2

Charlotte

85.9

86.4

86.2

86.2

0-1

2-3

Old Dominion

79.6

80.2

79.8

79.9

0-0

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.4

92.6

94.5

93.8

1-0

3-2

North Texas

92.6

92.2

93.5

92.8

1-0

2-3

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.8

90.9

90.9

2-0

4-1

U A B

87.6

89.3

88.1

88.4

0-1

3-1

Rice

80.5

82.0

80.1

80.9

0-1

0-5

Texas-San Antonio

74.5

76.7

74.1

75.1

0-1

1-3

U T E P

67.6

72.6

68.4

69.5

0-1

1-3

CUSA Averages

85.8

86.3

86.2

86.1

 

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.9

119.1

121.0

120.3

x

3-1

Army

101.4

101.5

101.0

101.3

x

3-1

BYU

99.5

99.4

99.4

99.4

x

2-3

Liberty

88.6

89.9

88.9

89.1

x

3-2

New Mexico St.

77.5

79.9

77.6

78.3

x

0-5

Massachusetts

66.8

69.0

66.0

67.3

x

1-4

Indep. Averages

92.4

93.1

92.3

92.6

 

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.7

92.8

94.6

93.7

0-0

1-3

Buffalo

88.6

89.0

89.4

89.0

0-1

2-3

Kent St.

88.3

88.3

88.8

88.5

1-0

2-2

Miami (Ohio)

88.3

86.6

88.5

87.8

1-0

2-3

Akron

73.6

73.9

72.8

73.4

0-1

0-5

Bowling Green

72.3

72.0

72.1

72.2

0-1

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

100.1

99.0

99.9

99.7

1-0

3-2

Northern Illinois

94.1

93.1

94.3

93.8

0-0

1-3

Toledo

93.3

93.8

94.3

93.8

0-0

3-1

Eastern Michigan

89.7

90.1

90.4

90.1

0-0

3-1

Ball St.

87.2

86.7

86.9

86.9

0-0

1-3

Central Michigan

81.1

81.8

81.6

81.5

1-1

2-3

MAC Averages

87.5

87.3

87.8

87.5

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.5

105.8

106.8

106.4

1-0

4-0

Utah St.

105.8

104.8

107.2

105.9

2-0

3-1

Air Force

98.1

99.4

99.0

98.8

1-1

3-1

Wyoming

97.5

99.6

98.1

98.4

1-0

4-1

New Mexico

82.1

85.1

81.2

82.8

0-0

2-2

Colorado St.

80.6

84.5

80.8

82.0

0-1

1-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Hawaii

98.9

100.6

98.3

99.3

1-0

4-1

Fresno St.

98.9

99.5

99.3

99.2

0-0

2-2

San Diego St.

98.2

99.9

98.1

98.7

0-1

3-1

Nevada

87.6

89.3

87.0

88.0

0-1

3-2

San Jose St.

85.0

86.9

84.3

85.4

0-1

2-2

U N L V

82.5

84.5

82.3

83.1

0-1

1-3

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.5

94.0

 

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.5

116.5

117.6

116.9

1-0

3-1

Washington

113.8

113.5

115.1

114.1

1-1

4-1

Washington St.

110.6

109.6

110.7

110.3

0-2

3-2

California

105.9

105.6

106.9

106.1

1-1

4-1

Stanford

104.5

103.6

104.0

104.0

1-2

2-3

Oregon St.

95.7

96.9

94.8

95.8

0-1

1-3

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

118.4

116.9

118.8

118.0

1-1

4-1

Arizona St.

108.1

107.5

109.0

108.2

1-1

4-1

U S C

106.9

107.7

107.2

107.3

2-1

3-2

Arizona

102.4

102.5

102.4

102.4

1-0

3-1

Colorado

99.8

99.7

99.9

99.8

1-0

3-1

U C L A

99.0

98.7

98.2

98.7

1-1

1-4

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.8

 

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

128.0

126.3

128.6

127.6

1-0

4-0

Florida

121.5

118.6

120.9

120.3

3-0

5-0

Missouri

116.6

114.2

116.9

115.9

1-0

3-1

South Carolina

112.0

110.3

111.7

111.3

1-2

2-3

Kentucky

106.3

104.7

104.7

105.2

0-3

2-3

Tennessee

105.3

105.1

103.5

104.6

0-1

1-3

Vanderbilt

102.4

101.0

101.0

101.5

0-2

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.4

131.9

136.1

134.4

2-0

5-0

L S U

126.8

124.2

125.8

125.6

1-0

4-0

Auburn

122.4

120.5

122.2

121.7

2-0

5-0

Texas A&M

116.6

115.0

115.1

115.6

1-1

3-2

Mississippi St.

112.6

108.7

117.6

113.0

1-1

3-2

Ole Miss

103.0

102.0

102.5

102.5

1-1

2-3

Arkansas

97.2

98.0

96.6

97.3

0-2

2-3

SEC Averages

114.7

112.9

114.5

114.0

 

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.8

104.6

104.5

1-0

4-0

Georgia Southern

95.2

94.5

94.5

94.8

0-1

1-3

Troy

94.4

94.6

93.3

94.1

0-1

2-2

Coastal Carolina

86.5

87.7

85.9

86.7

0-1

3-2

Georgia St.

86.0

87.3

85.1

86.1

0-1

2-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.1

100.3

100.0

100.1

1-0

4-1

Arkansas St.

92.4

92.6

92.3

92.4

1-0

3-2

Louisiana-Monroe

87.4

88.2

87.2

87.6

1-0

2-2

Texas St.

83.5

84.4

83.3

83.7

1-0

2-3

South Alabama

73.3

76.3

72.4

74.0

0-1

1-4

SBC Averages

90.4

91.0

89.9

90.4

 

 

Bowls and Playoffs Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Western Michigan

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Temple

Georgia Southern

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Central Florida

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Marshall

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Memphis

Southern Miss.

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Tulane

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[West.  Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Syracuse

East Carolina

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

TCU

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Oregon

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Baylor

Arizona

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

LSU

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Wyoming]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Nebraska

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Miami (O)]

Wake Forest

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Alabama

Belk

ACC

SEC

Duke

[Army]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Colorado

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Boston College]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Troy

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Washington

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Auburn

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[North Carolina St.]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Minnesota

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Ohio

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

[California]

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Eastern Michigan

Appalachian St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Georgia

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Oklahoma

Clemson

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

 

One full month into the season, and the Playoff Committee and Bowl Committees look to be having opposite issues.

There are multiple strong teams left in the Playoff picture, more than in any year since the FBS Playoffs began.  With Clemson, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and even Wake Forest, Minnesota, and Baylor still alive as Power 5 Undefeated teams, and with one-loss teams like Washington, Oregon, Utah, Texas, and Notre Dame still holding slim hopes,  the Playoff Committee will have multiple teams to choose just four.  It could be that this is the year where it becomes evident that at least six and maybe eight teams should be included in the Playoffs.

On the other end of the spectrum, many bowl committees are looking at the probability that they will need to secure an at-large team participant.  Chief among these bowl problems are the bottom group of SEC contractual games.  You will see the problem as we go conference by conference.  Some of the SEC bowls are going to have to make do with inferior substitutes.  These bowl might petition the NCAA to expand the playoffs so that they don’t have to seek out 6-6 teams from Group of 5 conferences for at-large inclusion in their games.

American Athletic

With Central Florida now on the outside looking in for the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid, Memphis and SMU are still undefeated, but neither team ranks near Boise State.  One of these three would have to finish ahead of Boise State and win the AAC Championship Game in order to sneak into the Cotton Bowl.

As of today, it looks like the AAC will have seven bowl eligible teams for seven bowls.  Two from a group that includes Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa, Navy, or Houston should sneak in at 6-6.

Atlantic Coast 

Even with the close scare, Clemson stays in strong contention for the Playoffs.  Their schedule is the easiest of all the contenders, and this should give the Tigers a better than 50-50 chance of running the table to 13-0.  The problem is their strength of schedule might knock them down all the way to fourth place in the seedings.  If CU loses a game, they might be headed to the Orange Bowl instead of the Playoffs.

Including Notre Dame with the ACC bowl contracts, this looks like a league that will have 12 bowl eligible teams.  If Clemson makes the Playoffs, Notre Dame could easily take the Orange Bowl bid, moving the Coastal Division Champion to the Camping World Bowl.

The ACC will almost assuredly send one extra team to fill a vacant bowl slot, and as of today, we believe two extra bowl eligible teams will become at-large participants.  Since the Birmingham Bowl has a secondary agreement with this league, the number 11 bowl team will go here.  The number 12 bowl team should fill another vacant SEC slot.

Big 12

At this point of the season, we cannot find a probable loss for Oklahoma, so we are including them in the Playoffs as a 13-0 team.  There could be a major logjam for the number two spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.  The rest of the league is rather close in talent, and it would not surprise us to see as many as four teams finishing with 6-3 conference records.  In our scenario today, we show Iowa State winning the tiebreaker between four 6-3 teams.

With Oklahoma picked to make the playoffs, there will not be enough bowl eligible teams to satisfy this league’s allotments.  The First Responders Bowl has gotten used to having to look for an at-large participant, and they will more than likely look to the Mountain West for the second season in a row.

Big Ten

This conference always provides headaches at PiRate Bowl Selection Central.  There are more rules involving this conference than any other.  First, there is a  possibility that the Big Ten can have a team in the Orange Bowl, but if not, then they are guaranteed a spot in the Citrus Bowl.  Then, there is a choice between the Gator and Music City Bowls; this year, it is almost a metaphysical certitude that a Big Ten team will go to the Gator Bowl rather than the Music City Bowl.  

Then, the rest of the bowls in the Big Ten contractual lineup have rules where teams that have played in their game in the last five years will not be invited.  The higher up on the pecking order, the more strict this rule is.  The lower bowls still require five different teams in a six-year period.

This is where we had to move around some teams to guarantee the rules were followed.  First, Ohio State looks like the number one team in the nation so far.  We have the Buckeyes winning out, which includes topping Wisconsin twice, as well as Michigan State, Michigan, and Penn State.

The best from Wisconsin, Penn State, and Iowa will then slide into the Rose Bowl, while the second best will be up for consideration in the Orange Bowl.  If Notre Dame takes that Orange Bowl spot, then that third best team slips to the Citrus Bowl.

Placing Wisconsin in the Rose, it works to have Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, because the Citrus Bowl does not want to see Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State this year.

The Outback is next in the pecking order, and they get to veto Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.  We placed Penn State there.

Next up is the Holiday Bowl.  They just say no to Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Northwestern.  That’s just fine for the boys from A2–place Michigan in this one.

The Gator gets the next bowl team, and since the Music City Bowl has been taking Big Ten teams in recent years, this is good for the Taxslayer people that will choose their representative.  Only Penn State and Iowa are off the board here, and they will be taken by this time.  The Gator can then choose Minnesota.

Next up is the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx, and they have an embargo on Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Michigan State should be available for this pick, and Sparty will be a good fit with their grind it out style outdoors at Yankee Stadium in late December.

The Redbox Bowl is going to be in a little predicament at this point.  We figure that all that will be left for this bowl are 6-6 Nebraska and 6-6 Indiana.  Both teams have played in this bowl, as the Redbox people would prefer not to see Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, and Michigan State.  This is where the five teams in six years rule will have to be exercised, because we expect only the Cornhuskers and Hoosiers to be left.  We’re giving the call to Nebraska.

That will leave Indiana for the Quick Lane Bowl.  The Armed Forces Bowl is just like the First Responders Bowl; rarely does this bowl get its Big Ten/Big 12 representative.

Conference USA 

UAB’s loss Saturday to Western Kentucky basically eliminated this league from NY6 Bowl contention.  CUSA has five bowl contracts, but seven teams should be bowl eligible at the end of the year.  This league has a secondary agreement with the Frisco Bowl, and we expect the Frisco Bowl to invite a CUSA team.

CUSA also has a secondary agreement with the Independence Bowl, and there should be a final bowl eligible team to satisfy this agreement.  CUSA may actually decide to send a stronger team to Shreveport to play an ACC opponent and slide a 6-6 team into a regularly contracted bowl.

Independents

We are not including Notre Dame here, as they are able to secure an ACC bowl bid.  There should be three additional bowl eligible teams among the Independents.  First, if BYU is bowl eligible, the Cougars are guaranteed a spot in the Hawaii Bowl.  It looks like BYU could finish 6-6, so their reward for Christmas will be an escape from the snowy Utah mountains to beautiful sunny weather on the beach.

Army most definitely will be bowl eligible.  They automatically bring their corps of cadets with them, so Uncle Sam will financially secure the bowl game that invites our heroes from West Point.

Liberty could finish as strong as 8-4, but the Flames will have two FCS wins to get there.  Because they only have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl, and because the Cure Bowl should be able to place its regular contracted teams in their game, Liberty is likely to be left out this year.

Mid-American

This is another league where there are always more bowl eligible teams than there are bowls.  Usually, multiple 6-6 teams stay home for the holidays, and this year, there could be a trio of them.

The MAC has five main bowl agreements, and the Frisco Bowl can choose a sixth team.  With CUSA having extra teams this year, it is our belief that the Frisco Bowl will choose a team closer to the Metroplex in Texas.

What that means is that eight teams will be competing for five bowl spots.  We believe that Miami of Ohio, Kent State, and Buffalo could all finish 6-6, and there might be room for just one of these teams to sneak in as an at-large team somewhere in the South.  Miami of Ohio and Buffalo sell about the same number of tickets to home games, but Miami is a bigger name in football history.  We believe the Red Hawks would be the top choice in this 6-6 triad.

Mountain West

Could this be the year Boise State runs the table for the first time since 2009?  The Broncos look to be stronger than they have been in the last four years.  Their schedule still has some trap games, but for now, we will move Boise to the NY6 Bowl, which should be the Cotton Bowl.

All told, it looks like there could be eight bowl eligible teams this year, and with Boise taking the extra bid, there should be room for seven conference bowl teams.  It is likely that one 6-6 team will be left out, because one of the at-large bowl games will already have a MWC team in it.  If BYU were to go 5-7 and not earn the Hawaii Bowl trip, then that final bowl eligible team will have a slot.

Pac-12

For all practical purposes, the Conference of Champions will not produce a national champion again this year, and it is most unlikely that the league champ will make it to the Playoffs.  So, this conference is playing for the Rose Bowl.

When California quarterback Chase Garbers went down with an injury Friday night, and Arizona State rallied to knock off the Bears in Berkeley, it left no undefeated teams in this league.  The winner of the Washington-Oregon game is now a strong bet to win the North Division title. 

As for the South, it is as scrambled as ever.  Utah still looks like the best of the bunch, but the Utes’ offense is not the type to put teams away.  USC exposed their defense with crisp passing and some fortunate underthrows.  Utah may have the best chance to go 7-2, but the South could easily finish in a tie for first with teams that go 6-3 in league play.

The Pac-12 has seven bowl contracts, and it looks like this year there will be eight bowl eligible teams.  The team that does not make the regular group will become the number one choice for a bowl in the Lone Star State.

Southeastern

And now, we come to the major issues.  This league’s lesser bowls are sweating it out today.  There are five incredibly strong teams, and five incredibly weak teams.  Of the remaining four, one is not bowl eligible, and one is going to struggle to get to 6-6, 7-5 at best.

Let’s start with the good news.  Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, and Florida are all top ten teams.  If the season ended today, Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn would have to be considered top four teams and placed in the Playoffs.  

Eventually, these teams will beat up on each other.  It is possible that all five will suffer a loss before the end of November.  Do you punish this league for having five of the best eight teams in the nation?  Of course not!  The winner of the SEC Championship Game will make the playoffs.  The problem is that it will be really shoddy politics if the Selection Committee takes a second one-loss team for the Playoffs if there are three other undefeated teams like defending national champion Clemson, potentially number one Ohio State, and potentially number two Oklahoma.

So, let’s just say that Auburn goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to LSU.  Alabama goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Auburn.  LSU goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Alabama.  Meanwhile Florida falls to Auburn, LSU, and Georgia to be the best three-loss team in a generation.  Georgia also goes 7-1/11-1 with the loss to Auburn.

In the SEC Championship Game, Georgia gets revenge and beats Auburn to claim the number four seed in the Playoffs.  Meanwhile Auburn gets the Sugar Bowl bid, while Alabama gets the Orange Bowl bid.  The Cotton Bowl takes LSU.

Now, there are at most four additional bowl eligible teams from the SEC.  First up the Citrus Bowl gets their choice from among Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Kentucky.  We all know who they would take in this scenrio, and the 9-3 Gators are now off the board.

The Outback , Texas, and Gator bowls would then combine to take Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Kentucky in that order.  Since Missouri is on probation, there are no other bowl eligible teams, as Arkansas, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt will fall short.

Guess who else falls short?  There are no remaining teams for the Belk, Liberty, Music City, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls.  Yes!  Five bowls will have to find alternate participants. 

The Birmingham Bowl has a secondary agreement with the ACC, and they will get the #11 team, most likely a 6-6 squad.  The Independence Bowl has a secondary agreement with CUSA, and there should be an extra bowl eligible team for that one.

The best bet for an empty slot in the Belk Bowl might be Army.  The Cadets will invade Charlotte, and that bowl will have a lot of filled seats, especially if the opponent is a team from North Carolina like the Tar Heels, Blue Devils, Demon Deacons, or Wolfpack.

Alas, the two Volunteer State bowls will be hurting.  The Liberty and Music City Bowls will have to find somebody from among the sea of lesser 6-6 teams.  Because the Music City Bowl will have an ACC team, the #12 ACC bowl eligible team will go to Memphis and play in the Liberty Bowl.  That leaves the Music City Bowl looking at one of those three 6-6 MAC teams.  Our guess is that Miami of Ohio would be their choice in this situation, unless the folks at Franklin American Mortgage can do a backroom deal to get a better MAC team and send that 6-6 MAC team to the Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise.

Sun Belt

It looks like the Sun Belt will have five bowl eligible teams, and there will be room for all five, since this league has five for sure contracts plus an additional supplemental one.  Louisiana and Appalachian State look like the two top powers, but Arkansas State is still a potential division winner in the West.  Troy should be the number four team, while the fifth one should be either Georgia Southern or Louisiana-Monroe.

 

 

 

September 22, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 23, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 26

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Memphis

Navy

18.1

15.0

19.5

 

 

Friday

September 27

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Virginia Tech

Duke

1.3

1.8

1.6

Maryland

Penn St.

-4.3

-3.8

-4.7

Air Force

San Jose St.

15.5

14.7

17.1

 

 

Saturday

September 28

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

California

Arizona St.

3.6

4.3

4.2

Wisconsin

Northwestern

15.0

15.7

16.3

Boston College

Wake Forest

-0.5

-0.1

-0.5

Central Florda

Connecticut

40.6

35.9

43.0

Western Michigan

Central Michigan

21.3

19.4

21.0

South Florida

SMU

-8.6

-7.4

-9.3

Miami (O)

Buffalo

1.9

-0.6

1.1

Temple

Georgia Tech

6.9

7.7

7.4

Florida St.

North Carolina St.

3.6

4.0

3.2

Baylor

Iowa St.

0.7

0.6

0.3

Toledo

BYU

-6.0

-5.6

-5.3

Massachusetts

Akron

-8.8

-6.7

-9.2

Michigan

Rutgers

28.4

26.4

29.1

Purdue

Minnesota

-0.9

-0.2

0.1

Georgia Southern

Louisiana

0.9

0.0

0.5

Iowa

Middle Tennessee

28.3

27.3

28.4

Wyoming

UNLV

13.1

13.0

13.5

Utah

Washington St.

6.7

5.9

6.6

New Mexico St.

Fresno St.

-20.3

-18.4

-21.1

Nevada

Hawaii

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

Oregon St.

Stanford

-6.5

-4.2

-7.5

Michigan St.

Indiana

13.4

14.6

14.9

North Carolina

Clemson

-29.2

-25.6

-29.3

South Carolina

Kentucky

6.3

6.0

7.4

Alabama

Ole Miss

37.1

34.3

39.1

Vanderbilt

Northern Illinois

10.6

10.5

9.3

TCU

Kansas

12.0

14.2

12.4

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

1.1

1.9

0.6

Auburn

Mississippi St.

7.0

9.2

7.0

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

19.7

18.6

20.6

Charlotte

Florida Atlantic

-0.3

1.1

-0.5

Notre Dame

Virginia

16.6

14.2

16.8

Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina

21.0

17.9

21.1

Marshall

Cincinnati

-9.3

-8.2

-8.2

Old Dominion

East Carolina

0.3

-1.3

1.3

Liberty

New Mexico

9.2

7.3

10.5

Troy

Arkansas St.

7.7

8.1

7.2

Louisiana-Monroe

South Alabama

17.0

14.5

18.1

Southern Miss.

UTEP

31.1

23.6

30.8

Rice

Louisiana Tech

-8.9

-7.3

-9.8

Western Kentucky

UAB

1.7

0.4

2.2

Utah St.

Colorado St.

29.1

24.3

30.4

Nebraska

Ohio St.

-22.5

-19.6

-23.7

North Texas

Houston

0.8

-0.6

-0.8

Texas A&M (n)

Arkansas

23.8

21.2

23.3

Washington

USC

9.5

8.0

10.1

Arizona

UCLA

6.6

7.1

8.0

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Syracuse

Holy Cross

35

Pittsburgh

Delaware

29

Florida

Towson St.

36

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

136.1

132.5

137.2

135.2

2

Clemson

134.9

131.6

135.8

134.1

3

Ohio St.

132.2

130.7

132.9

131.9

4

Georgia

127.7

126.0

128.3

127.3

5

L S U

126.5

123.9

125.5

125.3

6

Oklahoma

122.6

121.7

122.5

122.3

7

Notre Dame

121.0

119.0

121.2

120.4

8

Florida

121.4

118.5

120.8

120.2

9

Wisconsin

119.6

119.3

119.7

119.5

10

Auburn

119.2

117.4

118.8

118.5

11

Michigan St.

117.7

117.3

118.0

117.7

12

Texas A&M

118.3

116.6

117.0

117.3

13

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

14

Michigan

117.1

115.0

117.2

116.4

15

Penn St.

116.7

115.6

116.3

116.2

16

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

17

Missouri

116.3

113.9

116.6

115.6

18

Iowa

116.0

114.0

116.1

115.3

19

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

20

Mississippi St.

115.2

111.2

114.8

113.7

21

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

22

Iowa St.

112.4

112.7

112.3

112.5

23

Texas

112.4

112.5

112.4

112.4

24

Kansas St.

112.1

111.8

112.1

112.0

25

Central Florida

111.5

110.7

112.6

111.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.7

110.2

27

South Carolina

110.8

109.0

110.4

110.1

28

Baylor

110.1

110.2

109.6

110.0

29

Minnesota

109.7

109.0

108.3

109.0

30

Maryland

109.4

108.8

108.6

108.9

31

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

107.6

106.8

108.5

107.6

33

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

34

Virginia

107.4

107.8

107.4

107.5

35

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

36

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

37

Northwestern

107.6

106.6

106.4

106.9

38

Kentucky

107.5

106.0

106.0

106.5

39

Utah St.

106.3

105.3

107.7

106.4

40

Indiana

107.3

105.6

106.1

106.3

41

Pittsburgh

106.3

105.9

106.2

106.1

42

Syracuse

106.3

105.8

106.3

106.1

43

Boise St.

106.2

105.5

106.5

106.1

44

T C U

104.8

108.1

105.1

106.0

45

Purdue

105.8

105.8

105.3

105.6

46

Texas Tech

105.9

106.1

104.9

105.6

47

Memphis

105.3

105.1

106.4

105.6

48

Duke

105.5

105.0

105.4

105.3

49

Cincinnati

105.4

103.8

105.5

104.9

50

Appalachian St.

105.3

103.7

104.8

104.6

51

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

52

Tennessee

105.0

104.8

103.2

104.3

53

Wake Forest

104.3

103.8

104.9

104.3

54

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

55

Virginia Tech

103.7

103.9

104.0

103.9

56

SMU

102.9

102.7

103.9

103.2

57

North Carolina

102.7

103.0

103.6

103.1

58

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

59

Florida St.

102.6

102.8

102.4

102.6

60

North Carolina St.

102.0

101.8

102.3

102.0

61

Vanderbilt

102.6

101.3

101.3

101.7

62

Ole Miss

102.0

101.1

101.1

101.4

63

Army

101.2

101.3

100.8

101.1

64

Boston College

100.8

100.7

101.4

101.0

65

BYU

100.9

100.9

101.0

100.9

66

Tulane

100.2

100.7

100.8

100.6

67

Temple

100.4

99.4

101.4

100.4

68

Fresno St.

99.7

100.3

100.4

100.1

69

Western Michigan

100.4

99.2

100.4

100.0

70

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

71

Louisiana

98.7

98.9

98.5

98.7

72

Air Force

97.8

99.0

98.7

98.5

73

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.8

98.4

74

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

75

Houston

96.1

97.2

98.7

97.3

76

Illinois

96.7

97.6

95.7

96.7

77

Georgia Southern

96.6

95.9

96.0

96.2

78

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

79

Wyoming

95.2

97.2

95.6

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

81

Troy

95.8

96.1

94.9

95.6

82

Arkansas

95.5

96.4

94.7

95.6

83

Georgia Tech

96.0

94.1

96.5

95.5

84

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

85

Louisville

95.9

95.6

95.1

95.5

86

North Texas

94.9

94.5

95.9

95.1

87

Southern Miss.

95.2

93.0

95.5

94.6

88

Marshall

93.6

93.1

94.8

93.8

89

Northern Illinois

93.9

92.8

94.0

93.6

90

Ohio

93.5

92.6

94.4

93.5

91

Tulsa

92.6

93.3

93.5

93.1

92

Toledo

91.9

92.3

92.7

92.3

93

South Florida

91.3

92.3

91.6

91.7

94

Louisiana Tech

91.5

91.3

91.7

91.5

95

Rutgers

91.7

91.6

91.1

91.5

96

Nevada

90.8

92.6

90.4

91.3

97

Navy

90.1

93.1

89.9

91.1

98

Arkansas St.

91.0

91.1

90.7

90.9

99

Florida Atlantic

90.5

89.8

91.2

90.5

100

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89.7

90.7

90.3

101

Eastern Michigan

89.5

89.9

90.2

89.9

102

Buffalo

89.0

89.6

89.9

89.5

103

Liberty

88.7

89.9

89.1

89.2

104

Florida Int’l.

89.1

88.7

89.2

89.0

105

U A B

87.8

89.7

88.5

88.7

106

Kent St.

88.1

88.1

88.6

88.3

107

Charlotte

87.7

88.4

88.2

88.1

108

Louisiana-Monroe

87.6

88.3

87.6

87.8

109

Miami (Ohio)

87.9

86.0

88.0

87.3

110

Western Kentucky

86.5

87.2

87.8

87.1

111

Ball St.

87.0

86.5

86.7

86.7

112

Coastal Carolina

86.4

87.8

85.7

86.6

113

Georgia St.

85.8

87.1

84.9

85.9

114

U N L V

85.1

87.2

85.1

85.8

115

San Jose St.

85.3

87.3

84.6

85.7

116

Texas St.

83.0

83.9

82.8

83.2

117

New Mexico

82.0

85.1

81.0

82.7

118

East Carolina

82.0

84.1

81.5

82.5

119

Colorado St.

80.1

84.0

80.3

81.5

120

Central Michigan

81.1

81.9

81.4

81.4

121

Rice

80.0

81.5

79.3

80.3

122

Old Dominion

79.8

80.3

80.2

80.1

123

New Mexico St.

77.0

79.4

76.8

77.7

124

Akron

76.1

76.3

75.5

75.9

125

Texas-San Antonio

74.3

76.5

73.9

74.9

126

Connecticut

73.9

77.8

72.6

74.8

127

South Alabama

73.1

76.2

72.0

73.8

128

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

129

U T E P

67.1

72.5

67.7

69.1

130

Massachusetts

65.3

67.6

64.3

65.7

 

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.7

112.6

111.6

0-0

3-1

Cincinnati

105.4

103.8

105.5

104.9

0-0

2-1

Temple

100.4

99.4

101.4

100.4

0-0

2-1

South Florida

91.3

92.3

91.6

91.7

0-0

1-2

East Carolina

82.0

84.1

81.5

82.5

0-1

2-2

Connecticut

73.9

77.8

72.6

74.8

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.3

105.1

106.4

105.6

0-0

3-0

SMU

102.9

102.7

103.9

103.2

0-0

4-0

Tulane

100.2

100.7

100.8

100.6

1-0

3-1

Houston

96.1

97.2

98.7

97.3

0-1

1-3

Tulsa

92.6

93.3

93.5

93.1

0-0

2-2

Navy

90.1

93.1

89.9

91.1

1-0

2-0

AAC Averages

96.0

96.7

96.5

96.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.9

131.6

135.8

134.1

2-0

4-0

Syracuse

106.3

105.8

106.3

106.1

0-1

2-2

Wake Forest

104.3

103.8

104.9

104.3

0-0

4-0

Florida St.

102.6

102.8

102.4

102.6

1-1

2-2

North Carolina St.

102.0

101.8

102.3

102.0

0-0

3-1

Boston College

100.8

100.7

101.4

101.0

1-0

3-1

Louisville

95.9

95.6

95.1

95.5

0-1

2-2

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

107.6

106.8

108.5

107.6

0-1

2-2

Virginia

107.4

107.8

107.4

107.5

2-0

4-0

Pittsburgh

106.3

105.9

106.2

106.1

0-1

2-2

Duke

105.5

105.0

105.4

105.3

0-0

2-1

Virginia Tech

103.7

103.9

104.0

103.9

0-1

2-1

North Carolina

102.7

103.0

103.6

103.1

1-0

2-2

Georgia Tech

96.0

94.1

96.5

95.5

0-1

1-2

ACC Averages

105.4

104.9

105.7

105.3

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.6

121.7

122.5

122.3

0-0

3-0

Iowa St.

112.4

112.7

112.3

112.5

0-0

2-1

Texas

112.4

112.5

112.4

112.4

1-0

3-1

Kansas St.

112.1

111.8

112.1

112.0

0-0

3-0

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.7

110.2

0-1

3-1

Baylor

110.1

110.2

109.6

110.0

0-0

3-0

T C U

104.8

108.1

105.1

106.0

0-0

2-1

Texas Tech

105.9

106.1

104.9

105.6

0-0

2-1

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

1-0

3-1

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

0-1

2-2

Big 12 Averages

109.1

109.5

108.8

109.1

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

132.2

130.7

132.9

131.9

1-0

4-0

Michigan St.

117.7

117.3

118.0

117.7

1-0

3-1

Michigan

117.1

115.0

117.2

116.4

0-1

2-1

Penn St.

116.7

115.6

116.3

116.2

0-0

3-0

Maryland

109.4

108.8

108.6

108.9

0-0

2-1

Indiana

107.3

105.6

106.1

106.3

0-1

3-1

Rutgers

91.7

91.6

91.1

91.5

0-1

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

119.6

119.3

119.7

119.5

1-0

3-0

Iowa

116.0

114.0

116.1

115.3

1-0

3-0

Minnesota

109.7

109.0

108.3

109.0

0-0

3-0

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

1-0

3-1

Northwestern

107.6

106.6

106.4

106.9

0-1

1-2

Purdue

105.8

105.8

105.3

105.6

0-0

1-2

Illinois

96.7

97.6

95.7

96.7

0-1

2-2

Big Ten Averages

111.0

110.4

110.6

110.6

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.6

93.1

94.8

93.8

0-0

2-1

Florida Atlantic

90.5

89.8

91.2

90.5

0-0

2-2

Middle Tennessee

90.6

89.7

90.7

90.3

0-0

1-2

Florida Int’l.

89.1

88.7

89.2

89.0

0-2

1-3

Charlotte

87.7

88.4

88.2

88.1

0-0

2-2

Western Kentucky

86.5

87.2

87.8

87.1

1-0

1-2

Old Dominion

79.8

80.3

80.2

80.1

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

North Texas

94.9

94.5

95.9

95.1

1-0

2-2

Southern Miss.

95.2

93.0

95.5

94.6

0-0

2-2

Louisiana Tech

91.5

91.3

91.7

91.5

1-0

3-1

U A B

87.8

89.7

88.5

88.7

0-0

3-0

Rice

80.0

81.5

79.3

80.3

0-0

0-4

Texas-San Antonio

74.3

76.5

73.9

74.9

0-1

1-3

U T E P

67.1

72.5

67.7

69.1

0-0

1-2

CUSA Averages

86.3

86.9

86.8

86.7

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.0

119.0

121.2

120.4

x

2-1

Army

101.2

101.3

100.8

101.1

x

3-1

BYU

100.9

100.9

101.0

100.9

x

2-2

Liberty

88.7

89.9

89.1

89.2

x

2-2

New Mexico St.

77.0

79.4

76.8

77.7

x

0-4

Massachusetts

65.3

67.6

64.3

65.7

x

0-4

Indep. Averages

92.3

93.0

92.2

92.5

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

93.5

92.6

94.4

93.5

0-0

1-3

Buffalo

89.0

89.6

89.9

89.5

0-0

2-2

Kent St.

88.1

88.1

88.6

88.3

1-0

2-2

Miami (Ohio)

87.9

86.0

88.0

87.3

0-0

1-3

Akron

76.1

76.3

75.5

75.9

0-1

0-4

Bowling Green

72.1

71.8

71.9

72.0

0-1

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

100.4

99.2

100.4

100.0

0-0

2-2

Northern Illinois

93.9

92.8

94.0

93.6

0-0

1-2

Toledo

91.9

92.3

92.7

92.3

0-0

2-1

Eastern Michigan

89.5

89.9

90.2

89.9

0-0

3-1

Ball St.

87.0

86.5

86.7

86.7

0-0

1-3

Central Michigan

81.1

81.9

81.4

81.4

1-0

2-2

MAC Averages

87.5

87.3

87.8

87.5

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.3

105.3

107.7

106.4

1-0

2-1

Boise St.

106.2

105.5

106.5

106.1

1-0

4-0

Air Force

97.8

99.0

98.7

98.5

0-1

2-1

Wyoming

95.2

97.2

95.6

96.0

0-0

3-1

New Mexico

82.0

85.1

81.0

82.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado St.

80.1

84.0

80.3

81.5

0-0

1-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.7

100.3

100.4

100.1

0-0

1-2

San Diego St.

97.9

99.6

97.8

98.4

0-1

3-1

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

0-0

3-1

Nevada

90.8

92.6

90.4

91.3

0-0

3-1

U N L V

85.1

87.2

85.1

85.8

0-0

1-2

San Jose St.

85.3

87.3

84.6

85.7

0-0

2-1

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.6

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

1-0

3-1

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

0-1

3-1

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

0-1

3-1

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

1-0

4-0

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

0-2

1-3

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

0-0

1-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-1

3-1

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

2-0

3-1

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

0-1

3-1

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

1-0

3-1

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

1-0

1-3

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.7

126.0

128.3

127.3

1-0

4-0

Florida

121.4

118.5

120.8

120.2

2-0

4-0

Missouri

116.3

113.9

116.6

115.6

1-0

3-1

South Carolina

110.8

109.0

110.4

110.1

0-2

1-3

Kentucky

107.5

106.0

106.0

106.5

0-2

2-2

Tennessee

105.0

104.8

103.2

104.3

0-1

1-3

Vanderbilt

102.6

101.3

101.3

101.7

0-2

0-3

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

136.1

132.5

137.2

135.2

1-0

4-0

L S U

126.5

123.9

125.5

125.3

1-0

4-0

Auburn

119.2

117.4

118.8

118.5

1-0

4-0

Texas A&M

118.3

116.6

117.0

117.3

0-1

2-2

Mississippi St.

115.2

111.2

114.8

113.7

1-0

3-1

Ole Miss

102.0

101.1

101.1

101.4

1-0

2-2

Arkansas

95.5

96.4

94.7

95.6

0-1

2-2

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.0

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.3

103.7

104.8

104.6

0-0

3-0

Georgia Southern

96.6

95.9

96.0

96.2

0-0

1-2

Troy

95.8

96.1

94.9

95.6

0-0

2-1

Coastal Carolina

86.4

87.8

85.7

86.6

0-0

3-1

Georgia St.

85.8

87.1

84.9

85.9

0-1

2-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

98.7

98.9

98.5

98.7

0-0

3-1

Arkansas St.

91.0

91.1

90.7

90.9

0-0

2-2

Louisiana-Monroe

87.6

88.3

87.6

87.8

0-0

1-2

Texas St.

83.0

83.9

82.8

83.2

1-0

1-3

South Alabama

73.1

76.2

72.0

73.8

0-0

1-3

SBC Averages

90.3

90.9

89.8

90.3

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.8

2

BTen

110.6

3

B12

109.1

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.3

6

AAC

96.4

7

MWC

94.0

8

Ind

92.5

9

SUN

90.3

10

MAC

87.5

11

CUSA

86.7

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Boise St.

2

Memphis

3

SMU

4

UAB

5

Navy

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Eastern Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Utah St.]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Navy

Troy

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Nevada

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Buffalo

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

USC

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

UAB

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Houston

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Michigan]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Duke

Indiana

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Syracuse

Nebraska

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Kentucky

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

California

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Boise St.

Auburn

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

North Texas

[Fresno St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Colorado]

North Carolina St.

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Army]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia Tech

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

[Boston College]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Utah

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Iowa

Florida

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Washington

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Mississippi St.

Michigan St.

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Miami (O)

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Purdue

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Key Games This Week

 

 

Memphis vs. Navy: The winner of this game will have a leg up in the AAC West, and with Central Florida losing at Pitt, there is a possibility that the Western Division champion could win the Conference Championship Game and have a shot at the New Year’s Six Bowl Bid.  Memphis has never been in a major bowl, although they had a team that should have gotten one in 1963, when the Tigers finished 9-0-1 and tied undefeated Ole Miss.  Navy has been in five major bowls, winning the Sugar Bowl in 1955 and the Orange Bowl in 1958, while losing the Cotton Bowl in 1963, when it was for a shot at the National Championship.

California vs. Arizona St.: Had Arizona State beaten Colorado Saturday, this would have been the top game of the day.  Cal is the last undefeated team in the Pac-12, and even if the Bears were to somehow run the table, they have little chance of making the Playoffs.  Still, this is a key game for the West Coast, as the more Cal continues to win, the better off for the Conference of Champions.

Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan: The winner of this game definitely has a path to bowl eligibility.  If CMU wins this game, Jim McElwain will start getting some notice as a potential Power 5 School head coach, because the Chippewas were picked to finish in last place in the MAC West.

Miami (Ohio) vs. Buffalo: The Bulls didn’t just upset Temple Saturday; they pummeled the Owls into submission.  Miami should have done what Indiana did under Lee Corso many years ago–The Wacky Hoosiers’ coach called time out in 1976 just to take a team picture under the scoreboard when his team led the Buckeyes 7-6.  Miami led Ohio State 5-0 in the first quarter.  Corso’s Hoosiers lost their game 47-7.  Miami lost 76-5.  Still, the Redhawks have a shot at bowl eligibility, but they may have to uspet Buffalo to get there.  This is a perfect sandwich game for Buffalo, as they have Ohio U next week.

Florida St. vs. North Carolina St: Two weeks ago, Willie Taggart was sledding on thin ice at Florida State.  After a win over Louisville, the Seminoles are 2-2, and a win over NC State just might lead the Seminoles on a path to bowl eligibility.  Taggart has always had slow turnarounds.  He did so at Western Kentucky and at South Florida.  He was only at Oregon for a season, and this is just year two in Tallahassee.  If the fans and boosters give him a little more time, he will turn the FSU program back into a top tier program.  Dave Doeren has done a credible job in Raleigh with the Wolfpack, but this is looking like a slight down year for NC St.  The winner of this game will get to bowl eligibility.

Baylor vs. Iowa St.: The winner of this game remains a contender for one of the two Big 12 Championship Game spots.  Baylor has yet to play up to its potential to this point of the season.  They have the talent to win double-digit games this year, but they could lose the next two if they don’t bring their “A-game” to this week’s and next week’s games.  Iowa St. took their frustrations out on a Louisiana-Monroe team that isn’t as bad as the 72-20 loss indicates.  This game should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.  

Purdue vs. Minnesota: The winner of this game stays in contention for a bowl game.  If Minnesota wins on the road, then the Gophers will have a chance to start the season 8-0 before Penn State comes to Minneapolis.  Purdue must win this game, or the Boilermakers will not have a path to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana: Why do we call this a key game?  These two teams are stronger than you realize.  The Ragin’ Cajuns just trounced Ohio in Athens, while Georgia Southern is hiding in ambush at 1-2 with losses to undefeated Minnesota and unbelievable LSU.  The Eagles had an extra week to prepare for this game, while UL may be looking forward to their game with Appy State the following week.  The winner of this game will most definitely play a 13th game and maybe even a 14th game.

Utah vs. Washington St.: The loser of this game will have a two-game losing streak, after the two teams lost to the Los Angeles teams.  Utah’s loss at USC was surprising but not shocking.  If you didn’t stay up and watch the Washington State-UCLA game, you might not believe that Washington State scored 63 points.  Quarterback Anthony Gordon threw for 570 yards and nine touchdowns. However, it wasn’t good enough.  UCLA scored 67 points and came from 25 points down to pull off one of the most incredible upsets of the season.  The Bruins had scored 14 points in each of their first three games.  The winner of this game stays in contention for their division title, while the loser is looking at a December bowl.

Nevada vs. Hawaii: This game is for first place in the MAC West.  Hawaii usually plays much better at home than on the road, and playing in Reno gives Nevada a larger than normal home field advantage.  Nevada still has road games with Utah State, Wyoming, San Diego State, and Fresno State.  This is a must win game for the Wolf Pack if they are to make it to the MAC Championship Game.  A Rainbow Warrior win in this game, and it could be lights out for the rest of the division.

Oklahoma St. vs. Kansas St.: Chris Klieman came to the Little Apple having won back to back FCS National Championships at North Dakota State.  He has a personal winning streak of 24 games.  Kansas State had the week off after winning at Mississippi State, and now they entertain the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough loss at Texas.  If KSU wins this game in Stillwater, they then play three consecutive home games against three top contenders.  If Okie St. wins, then they stay in contention for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Auburn vs. Mississippi St.: It’s hard to think about a division game with a potential New Years’s Day Bowl participant as a potential sandwich game, but Auburn faces the Bulldogs between road games against Texas A&M and Florida.  This is the perfect chance for Mississippi State to pull off a big upset.  Auburn may not have enough offensive firepower to exploit State’s vulnerabilities on defense.  Of course, the Tiger defensive line is strong enough to hold the Bullies to less than 17 points, and Auburn will score 20 or more in this game.

Nebraska vs. Ohio St.: The last time the Buckeyes came to Lincoln, Nebraska suffered one of its most devastating home losses ever, losing 56-14.  Last year in Columbus, Nebraska came very close to pulling off the big upset.  Can the Cornhuskers have a shot in this game?  Last year’s Ohio State team was struggling a little bit when Nebraska played at the Horseshoe.  The Ohio State offense should make this game look more like the 2017 game in Lincoln.

Washington vs. USC: If the Trojans can leave Seattle with a win this weekend, Clay Helton might be able to begin to think about renewing his satellite TV subscription at his SoCal home for 2020.  A loss might put UW two games behind Cal, which would almost eliminate the Huskies from the North Division title race.  So, this is a must-win game for UW.

Note: Some of you (several somes of you) have contacted us through our other site wanting to know more information about the “Sharps” that are friends of the PiRate Ratings.  In Friday’s post here, we gave out a 5-game money line parlay with +250 odds that we inferred based on information given to us by one of our friends in Nevada.

So, the parlay won in theory.  If you did not heed our warning and actually played this one, you too won big on Saturday.

Unfortunately, this will not be a recurring thing here.  We cannot reveal the information we receive from Vegas, because the Sharps playing these parlays also have a service where they charge for their advice.  The specific Sharp that gave us this pick has asked not to be identified, and we are fine with that.  After all, we do not condone actual betting of money on sporting events.  Whether this parlay won or not, we were guaranteed not to win or lose, since we did not play it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 15, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tulane

Houston

7.1

6.3

4.7

 

Friday

September 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

La. Tech

Florida Int’l.

3.9

3.8

3.6

USC

Utah

-6.3

-3.8

-6.1

Boise St.

Air Force

10.8

9.0

10.4

 

Saturday

September 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida

Tennessee

16.0

13.6

16.9

Indiana

Connecticut

35.9

29.9

35.8

Rutgers

Boston College

-5.2

-5.0

-6.0

Syracuse

Western Mich.

6.2

6.6

5.8

Alabama

Southern Miss.

43.5

42.0

44.3

Iowa St.

UL-Monroe

22.3

21.8

21.9

Northwestern

Michigan St.

-3.7

-4.1

-5.0

Ole Miss

California

-2.4

-3.0

-4.6

Vanderbilt

LSU

-21.1

-19.5

-21.0

Wisconsin

Michigan

0.5

2.3

0.1

Massachusetts

Coastal Car.

-13.5

-12.2

-13.4

Ohio

Louisiana

3.7

2.4

5.6

Akron

Troy

-14.3

-14.3

-13.6

Buffalo

Temple

-15.1

-13.4

-15.5

Florida St.

Louisville

9.4

10.1

9.9

North Carolina

Appy St.

-0.4

2.1

1.6

Ohio St.

Miami (O)

40.6

40.8

40.9

Pittsburgh

Central Fla.

-3.1

-2.6

-4.9

TCU

SMU

4.3

8.2

3.9

Texas A&M

Auburn

5.0

5.3

4.6

Tulsa

Wyoming

0.0

-1.8

0.1

UAB

S. Alabama

12.0

10.4

13.6

BYU

Washington

-8.3

-7.7

-9.2

Kent St.

Bowling Green

11.4

11.5

11.7

Miami (Fla.)

Central Mich.

35.7

33.8

36.6

Mississippi St.

Kentucky

10.0

6.9

10.7

Missouri

South Carolina

5.7

4.7

6.0

Kansas

West Virginia

-5.7

-4.3

-5.5

New Mexico

New Mexico St.

6.4

7.5

6.1

N. Carolina St.

Ball St.

18.8

19.3

19.7

Virginia

Old Dominion

32.6

32.7

32.5

Rice

Baylor

-31.7

-30.5

-32.3

Stanford

Oregon

-8.2

-9.2

-9.5

Texas St.

Georgia St.

-0.5

-0.9

0.4

Clemson

Charlotte

48.5

44.4

48.8

Arkansas

San Jose St.

18.6

17.4

18.9

North Texas

UTSA

18.1

15.0

19.3

Texas

Oklahoma St.

5.1

4.5

5.3

Georgia

Notre Dame

9.3

9.6

9.7

Illinois

Nebraska

-6.4

-6.9

-7.0

UTEP

Nevada

-21.9

-18.1

-21.3

Arizona St.

Colorado

10.6

9.8

11.1

Colorado St.

Toledo

-9.1

-5.3

-10.4

San Diego St.

Utah St.

-5.4

-2.2

-6.9

Washington St.

UCLA

16.8

16.4

18.3

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Army

Morgan St.

41

Wake Forest

Elon

30

Eastern Michigan

Central Conn.

31

Florida Atlantic

Wagner

35

Liberty

Hampton

29

East Carolina

William & Mary

16

Arkansas St.

Southern Illinois

22

Fresno St.

Sacramento St.

30

Hawaii

Central Arkansas

20

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

135.9

132.3

137.0

135.0

2

Clemson

134.5

131.2

135.4

133.7

3

Ohio St.

128.7

127.1

129.2

128.3

4

Georgia

127.5

125.8

128.1

127.1

5

L S U

126.0

123.3

124.8

124.7

6

Oklahoma

122.3

121.4

122.2

122.0

7

Notre Dame

121.2

119.2

121.4

120.6

8

Michigan

119.6

117.5

119.9

119.0

9

Florida

119.9

117.1

119.1

118.7

10

Texas A&M

119.4

117.8

118.3

118.5

11

Wisconsin

117.1

116.8

117.0

117.0

12

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

13

Auburn

117.4

115.5

116.8

116.6

14

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

15

Michigan St.

116.1

115.6

116.3

116.0

16

Penn St.

116.4

115.3

116.0

115.9

17

Iowa

115.7

113.7

115.8

115.0

18

Missouri

114.9

112.3

115.0

114.1

19

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

20

Mississippi St.

115.0

110.7

114.4

113.4

21

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

22

Central Florida

112.1

111.3

113.5

112.3

23

Texas

112.3

112.3

112.2

112.3

24

Baylor

111.9

112.1

111.6

111.9

25

Kansas St.

111.8

111.5

111.8

111.7

26

South Carolina

112.2

110.6

112.0

111.6

27

Miami (Fla.)

110.4

109.5

111.5

110.5

28

Oklahoma St.

110.2

110.9

109.9

110.3

29

Iowa St.

110.2

110.4

109.9

110.2

30

Northwestern

109.9

109.0

108.8

109.2

31

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

32

Minnesota

109.4

108.7

108.0

108.7

33

Maryland

109.1

108.5

108.3

108.6

34

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

35

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

36

Kentucky

108.0

106.8

106.7

107.2

37

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

38

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

39

T C U

105.2

108.8

105.7

106.6

40

Utah St.

106.3

105.1

107.7

106.3

41

Indiana

107.3

105.4

106.0

106.2

42

Tennessee

106.8

106.5

105.2

106.2

43

Boise St.

106.1

105.4

106.4

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

105.6

105.7

45

Purdue

105.5

105.5

105.0

105.3

46

Texas Tech

105.6

105.8

104.6

105.3

47

Memphis

105.0

104.8

106.1

105.3

48

Duke

105.2

104.7

105.1

105.0

49

Syracuse

105.2

104.6

105.0

104.9

50

Cincinnati

105.1

103.5

105.2

104.6

51

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

52

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

53

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.3

104.4

104.3

54

Wake Forest

103.9

103.4

104.5

103.9

55

Virginia Tech

103.4

103.6

103.7

103.6

56

North Carolina

102.8

103.4

104.0

103.4

57

Temple

103.3

102.3

104.5

103.4

58

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

59

Vanderbilt

103.4

102.2

102.3

102.6

60

North Carolina St.

102.4

102.3

102.9

102.5

61

Florida St.

102.4

102.7

102.2

102.5

62

BYU

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.4

63

SMU

102.0

101.5

102.8

102.1

64

Western Michigan

102.0

100.9

102.2

101.7

65

Ole Miss

102.3

101.5

101.3

101.7

66

Army

101.5

101.6

101.1

101.4

67

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.9

100.6

68

Tulane

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

69

Fresno St.

100.0

100.6

100.7

100.4

70

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

71

Air Force

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.9

72

San Diego St.

97.9

99.8

97.8

98.5

73

Arkansas

98.3

99.2

97.7

98.4

74

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

75

Houston

96.1

97.3

98.9

97.4

76

Illinois

97.2

98.1

96.2

97.2

77

Ohio

96.6

95.6

97.9

96.7

78

Wyoming

95.4

97.6

96.0

96.3

79

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

80

Georgia Southern

96.4

95.7

95.8

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

82

Louisiana

95.9

96.2

95.3

95.8

83

Louisville

96.1

95.7

95.3

95.7

84

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

85

Georgia Tech

95.7

93.8

96.2

95.2

86

Southern Miss.

95.4

93.2

95.7

94.8

87

Troy

94.5

94.7

93.4

94.2

88

Marshall

93.4

92.9

94.6

93.6

89

Northern Illinois

93.7

92.6

93.8

93.4

90

North Texas

92.8

92.1

93.7

92.9

91

Tulsa

92.4

92.9

93.1

92.8

92

Toledo

92.1

92.3

93.2

92.5

93

Rutgers

92.3

92.3

91.9

92.2

94

Nevada

91.3

93.0

91.1

91.8

95

South Florida

91.0

92.0

91.3

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

97

Louisiana-Monroe

90.8

91.6

91.0

91.1

98

Eastern Michigan

90.7

91.1

91.4

91.1

99

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.7

91.0

90.9

100

Navy

89.8

92.8

89.6

90.8

101

Florida Atlantic

90.4

89.7

91.1

90.4

102

Middle Tennessee

90.4

89.5

90.5

90.1

103

Florida Int’l.

89.6

89.3

89.9

89.6

104

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.3

90.4

89.6

105

Liberty

88.5

89.7

88.9

89.0

106

Charlotte

88.1

88.8

88.6

88.5

107

Western Kentucky

86.3

87.0

87.6

86.9

108

U A B

85.7

87.4

86.3

86.5

109

Ball St.

86.6

86.0

86.1

86.2

110

Buffalo

85.8

86.4

86.5

86.2

111

Georgia St.

85.9

87.2

84.9

86.0

112

U N L V

84.9

87.0

84.9

85.6

113

Kent St.

85.3

85.2

85.6

85.4

114

Coastal Carolina

84.1

85.3

83.2

84.2

115

Texas St.

82.9

83.8

82.8

83.2

116

San Jose St.

82.8

84.8

81.9

83.2

117

New Mexico

82.2

85.5

81.4

83.1

118

East Carolina

82.2

84.3

81.7

82.7

119

Colorado St.

79.9

84.0

79.8

81.2

120

Rice

78.7

80.1

77.8

78.9

121

Central Michigan

77.8

78.7

77.9

78.1

122

Old Dominion

77.8

78.2

78.0

78.0

123

Akron

77.7

78.0

77.3

77.6

124

Texas-San Antonio

76.7

79.2

76.4

77.4

125

New Mexico St.

76.8

79.0

76.4

77.4

126

South Alabama

75.2

78.5

74.2

76.0

127

Bowling Green

75.9

75.7

75.9

75.9

128

Connecticut

74.4

78.5

73.2

75.4

129

U T E P

66.9

72.4

67.3

68.8

130

Massachusetts

68.1

70.6

67.3

68.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

112.1

111.3

113.5

112.3

0-0

3-0

Cincinnati

105.1

103.5

105.2

104.6

0-0

2-1

Temple

103.3

102.3

104.5

103.4

0-0

2-0

South Florida

91.0

92.0

91.3

91.4

0-0

1-2

East Carolina

82.2

84.3

81.7

82.7

0-1

1-2

Connecticut

74.4

78.5

73.2

75.4

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.0

104.8

106.1

105.3

0-0

3-0

SMU

102.0

101.5

102.8

102.1

0-0

3-0

Tulane

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

0-0

2-1

Houston

96.1

97.3

98.9

97.4

0-0

1-2

Tulsa

92.4

92.9

93.1

92.8

0-0

1-2

Navy

89.8

92.8

89.6

90.8

1-0

2-0

AAC Averages

96.1

96.8

96.7

96.6

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.5

131.2

135.4

133.7

2-0

3-0

Syracuse

105.2

104.6

105.0

104.9

0-1

1-2

Wake Forest

103.9

103.4

104.5

103.9

0-0

3-0

North Carolina St.

102.4

102.3

102.9

102.5

0-0

2-1

Florida St.

102.4

102.7

102.2

102.5

0-1

1-2

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.9

100.6

1-0

2-1

Louisville

96.1

95.7

95.3

95.7

0-0

2-1

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

110.4

109.5

111.5

110.5

0-1

1-2

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

2-0

3-0

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

105.6

105.7

0-1

1-2

Duke

105.2

104.7

105.1

105.0

0-0

2-1

Virginia Tech

103.4

103.6

103.7

103.6

0-1

2-1

North Carolina

102.8

103.4

104.0

103.4

1-0

2-1

Georgia Tech

95.7

93.8

96.2

95.2

0-1

1-2

ACC Averages

105.5

105.0

105.8

105.5

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.3

121.4

122.2

122.0

0-0

3-0

Texas

112.3

112.3

112.2

112.3

0-0

2-1

Baylor

111.9

112.1

111.6

111.9

0-0

2-0

Kansas St.

111.8

111.5

111.8

111.7

0-0

3-0

Oklahoma St.

110.2

110.9

109.9

110.3

0-0

3-0

Iowa St.

110.2

110.4

109.9

110.2

0-0

1-1

T C U

105.2

108.8

105.7

106.6

0-0

2-0

Texas Tech

105.6

105.8

104.6

105.3

0-0

2-1

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

0-0

2-1

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

0-0

2-1

Big 12 Averages

109.0

109.4

108.8

109.1

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

128.7

127.1

129.2

128.3

1-0

3-0

Michigan

119.6

117.5

119.9

119.0

0-0

2-0

Michigan St.

116.1

115.6

116.3

116.0

0-0

2-1

Penn St.

116.4

115.3

116.0

115.9

0-0

3-0

Maryland

109.1

108.5

108.3

108.6

0-0

2-1

Indiana

107.3

105.4

106.0

106.2

0-1

2-1

Rutgers

92.3

92.3

91.9

92.2

0-1

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

117.1

116.8

117.0

117.0

0-0

2-0

Iowa

115.7

113.7

115.8

115.0

1-0

3-0

Northwestern

109.9

109.0

108.8

109.2

0-0

1-1

Minnesota

109.4

108.7

108.0

108.7

0-0

3-0

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

0-0

2-1

Purdue

105.5

105.5

105.0

105.3

0-0

1-2

Illinois

97.2

98.1

96.2

97.2

0-0

2-1

Big Ten Averages

110.8

110.1

110.3

110.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.4

92.9

94.6

93.6

0-0

2-1

Florida Atlantic

90.4

89.7

91.1

90.4

0-0

1-2

Middle Tennessee

90.4

89.5

90.5

90.1

0-0

1-2

Florida Int’l.

89.6

89.3

89.9

89.6

0-1

1-2

Charlotte

88.1

88.8

88.6

88.5

0-0

2-1

Western Kentucky

86.3

87.0

87.6

86.9

1-0

1-2

Old Dominion

77.8

78.2

78.0

78.0

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

95.4

93.2

95.7

94.8

0-0

2-1

North Texas

92.8

92.1

93.7

92.9

0-0

1-2

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.7

91.0

90.9

0-0

2-1

U A B

85.7

87.4

86.3

86.5

0-0

2-0

Rice

78.7

80.1

77.8

78.9

0-0

0-3

Texas-San Antonio

76.7

79.2

76.4

77.4

0-0

1-2

U T E P

66.9

72.4

67.3

68.8

0-0

1-1

CUSA Averages

85.9

86.5

86.3

86.2

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.2

119.2

121.4

120.6

x

2-0

BYU

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.4

x

2-1

Army

101.5

101.6

101.1

101.4

x

2-1

Liberty

88.5

89.7

88.9

89.0

x

1-2

New Mexico St.

76.8

79.0

76.4

77.4

x

0-3

Massachusetts

68.1

70.6

67.3

68.7

x

0-3

Indep. Averages

93.1

93.7

92.9

93.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.6

95.6

97.9

96.7

0-0

1-2

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.3

90.4

89.6

0-0

1-2

Buffalo

85.8

86.4

86.5

86.2

0-0

1-2

Kent St.

85.3

85.2

85.6

85.4

0-0

1-2

Akron

77.7

78.0

77.3

77.6

0-1

0-3

Bowling Green

75.9

75.7

75.9

75.9

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

102.0

100.9

102.2

101.7

0-0

2-1

Northern Illinois

93.7

92.6

93.8

93.4

0-0

1-2

Toledo

92.1

92.3

93.2

92.5

0-0

1-1

Eastern Michigan

90.7

91.1

91.4

91.1

0-0

2-1

Ball St.

86.6

86.0

86.1

86.2

0-0

1-2

Central Michigan

77.8

78.7

77.9

78.1

1-0

2-1

MAC Averages

87.9

87.6

88.2

87.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.3

105.1

107.7

106.3

0-0

1-1

Boise St.

106.1

105.4

106.4

106.0

0-0

3-0

Air Force

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.9

0-0

2-0

Wyoming

95.4

97.6

96.0

96.3

0-0

3-0

New Mexico

82.2

85.5

81.4

83.1

0-0

1-1

Colorado St.

79.9

84.0

79.8

81.2

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

100.0

100.6

100.7

100.4

0-0

0-2

San Diego St.

97.9

99.8

97.8

98.5

0-0

3-0

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

0-0

2-1

Nevada

91.3

93.0

91.1

91.8

0-0

2-1

U N L V

84.9

87.0

84.9

85.6

0-0

1-2

San Jose St.

82.8

84.8

81.9

83.2

0-0

1-1

MWC Averages

93.4

95.0

93.5

93.9

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

0-0

2-1

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

0-1

2-1

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

0-0

3-0

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

1-0

3-0

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

0-1

1-2

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

0-0

1-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-0

3-0

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

1-0

2-1

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

0-0

3-0

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

0-0

2-1

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

0-0

0-3

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.5

125.8

128.1

127.1

1-0

3-0

Florida

119.9

117.1

119.1

118.7

1-0

3-0

Missouri

114.9

112.3

115.0

114.1

0-0

2-1

South Carolina

112.2

110.6

112.0

111.6

0-1

1-2

Kentucky

108.0

106.8

106.7

107.2

0-1

2-1

Tennessee

106.8

106.5

105.2

106.2

0-0

1-2

Vanderbilt

103.4

102.2

102.3

102.6

0-1

0-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.9

132.3

137.0

135.0

1-0

3-0

L S U

126.0

123.3

124.8

124.7

0-0

3-0

Texas A&M

119.4

117.8

118.3

118.5

0-0

2-1

Auburn

117.4

115.5

116.8

116.6

0-0

3-0

Mississippi St.

115.0

110.7

114.4

113.4

0-0

2-1

Ole Miss

102.3

101.5

101.3

101.7

1-0

2-1

Arkansas

98.3

99.2

97.7

98.4

0-1

2-1

SEC Averages

114.8

113.0

114.2

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.3

104.4

104.3

0-0

2-0

Georgia Southern

96.4

95.7

95.8

96.0

0-0

1-2

Troy

94.5

94.7

93.4

94.2

0-0

1-1

Georgia St.

85.9

87.2

84.9

86.0

0-0

2-1

Coastal Carolina

84.1

85.3

83.2

84.2

0-0

2-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

95.9

96.2

95.3

95.8

0-0

2-1

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

0-0

1-2

Louisiana-Monroe

90.8

91.6

91.0

91.1

0-0

1-1

Texas St.

82.9

83.8

82.8

83.2

0-0

0-3

South Alabama

75.2

78.5

74.2

76.0

0-0

1-2

SBC Averages

90.2

90.8

89.6

90.2

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Once again this week, our fearless bowl projections show a lot of at-large teams needed to fill spots.  This week, the number is eight teams.  The Southeastern Conference is looking like an eight-bid league this year, and the league will most likely have 12 spots to fill.  With Alabama, Georgia, and LSU looking like teams that will play in New Year’s Six Bowls or Playoffs, and with Missouri not eligible for a bowl this year, there will probably be just five other bowl eligible teams in the premiere league in FBS Football.  Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky should become bowl eligible, but Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt don’t look like they have the strength to reach six wins.

The Big Ten might benefit by an extra bid if Indiana and Northwestern can get to 6-6.  Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue look like they could supply a little fodder for the other 11 teams to pick up conference wins and allow 11 to become bowl eligible, when only 10 teams will have guaranteed bowl spots.  It figures that if any Big Ten team remains with at-large bowl bids available, the Big Ten will be at the top of the at-large lists.

The Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt Conferences look like they will have extra bowl eligible teams this year, but at this point of the season, some of these teams may be bowl eligible but not get an invitations.

Here’s our look at the Bowls and Playoffs this week.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Houston

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Western Michigan]

Troy

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Northern Illinois

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Arizona

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

North Texas

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Charlotte

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

[Army]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Northwestern

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Maryland

Texas

Big 12

SEC

TCU

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

[Hawaii]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Central Florida

California

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Louisiana Tech

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Indiana]

Syracuse

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

[Wyoming]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Washington

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Auburn

Michigan St.

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

 

 

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Alabama

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 8, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 9, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:00 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday

September 13

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wake Forest (x)

North Carolina

2.0

0.5

0.8

Boston College

Kansas

15.2

13.8

16.4

Houston

Washington St.

-14.3

-12.3

-12.0

 

 

Saturday

September 14

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

Arkansas St.

34.6

32.3

35.2

Mississippi St.

Kansas St.

9.4

4.9

9.1

West Virginia

North Carolina St.

2.9

2.5

1.5

Penn St.

Pittsburgh

12.8

12.2

13.3

Illinois

Eastern Michigan

12.5

13.4

11.0

Indiana

Ohio St.

-11.3

-11.3

-12.9

Temple

Maryland

-4.7

-5.5

-2.5

Cincinnati

Miami (O)

15.9

16.0

15.3

Colorado

Air Force

3.6

2.2

3.1

Ball St.

Florida Atlantic

-0.1

0.4

-0.9

Notre Dame

New Mexico

40.1

35.2

40.6

Central Michigan

Akron

-1.3

-0.7

-1.2

South Carolina

Alabama

-20.5

-18.1

-21.4

Central Florida

Stanford

8.7

8.7

10.1

BYU

USC

-2.0

-3.3

-2.7

UTSA

Army

-22.9

-20.5

-23.1

Tulsa

Oklahoma St.

-16.6

-16.6

-15.2

Minnesota

Georgia Southern

17.7

17.9

17.2

Northwestern

UNLV

29.5

26.3

28.5

South Alabama

Memphis

-24.9

-20.8

-27.0

Navy

East Carolina

5.3

6.1

5.2

Arkansas

Colorado St.

20.7

17.2

19.6

Michigan St.

Arizona St.

14.8

15.4

14.8

Louisville (n)

Western Kentucky

8.5

7.1

5.7

Iowa St.

Iowa

-4.0

-1.4

-3.9

California

North Texas

19.7

20.5

20.4

Bowling Green

Lousiana Tech

-8.2

-7.9

-7.8

Liberty

Buffalo

2.3

2.7

1.2

Charlotte

Massachusetts

19.4

17.0

20.3

Troy

Southern Miss.

2.8

6.0

1.6

Marshall

Ohio

-0.4

0.3

-0.7

Auburn

Kent St.

34.3

31.8

33.2

Kentucky

Florida

-8.8

-7.1

-9.0

Middle Tennessee

Duke

-9.5

-9.8

-9.1

SMU

Texas St.

19.2

17.4

19.7

Western Michigan

Georgia St.

12.5

9.5

13.5

Washington

Hawaii

19.1

16.4

20.6

Syracuse

Clemson

-24.9

-21.7

-25.6

Virginia

Florida St.

9.0

9.2

9.4

Purdue

TCU

11.0

7.1

10.4

UCLA

Oklahoma

16.1

-15.4

-16.7

New Mexico St.

San Diego St.

-18.4

-18.2

-18.7

Rice (n)

Texas

-32.9

-31.1

-33.2

Nebraska

Northern Illinois

13.3

16.0

12.5

Arizona

Texas Tech

-3.8

-4.0

-2.6

 

(x) The North Carolina vs. Wake Forest game does not count as an Atlantic Coast Conference Game.  It is a non-conference game and will have no effect on the conference standings.

(n) The Rice and Texas game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.  Even though Rice is in Houston, we expect more Texas fans at this game and thus have it listed as no home field advantage for Rice.

The Louisville and Western Kentucky game will be played at Nissan Stadium in Nashville and is a true neutral site game.

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Tennessee

Chattanooga

24

Virginia Tech

Furman

26

Georgia Tech

The Citadel

31

Coastal Carolina

Norfolk St.

27

Ole Miss

SE Louisiana

26

Miami (Fla.)

Bethune-Cookman

36

Oregon St.

Cal Poly

16

Utah

Idaho St.

35

Wyoming

Idaho

28

South Florida

South Carolina St.

23

Texas A&M

Lamar

39

Nevada

Weber St.

13

Florida Int’l.

New Hampshire

16

Toledo

Murray St.

27

LSU

Northwestern St.

50

Missouri

SE Missouri St.

34

Louisiana

Texas Southern

39

Tulane

Missouri St.

28

Boise St.

Portland St.

34

Oregon

Montana

29

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.4

110.5

112.7

111.5

0-0

2-0

Cincinnati

104.8

103.1

104.7

104.2

0-0

1-1

Temple

102.6

101.4

103.9

102.6

0-0

1-0

South Florida

90.7

91.7

91.0

91.1

0-0

0-2

East Carolina

84.9

87.0

84.6

85.5

0-0

1-1

Connecticut

74.2

78.3

73.0

75.2

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

103.8

103.3

104.9

104.0

0-0

2-0

SMU

100.8

100.1

101.4

100.8

0-0

2-0

Tulane

98.9

99.3

99.3

99.2

0-0

1-1

Houston

95.8

97.0

98.5

97.1

0-0

1-1

Tulsa

92.5

93.1

93.4

93.0

0-0

1-1

Navy

87.1

90.1

86.7

88.0

0-0

1-0

AAC Averages

95.6

96.2

96.2

96.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

133.8

130.2

134.5

132.9

1-0

2-0

Syracuse

105.9

105.6

105.9

105.8

0-0

1-1

Boston College

104.8

104.5

105.5

104.9

1-0

2-0

North Carolina St.

103.5

103.5

104.3

103.8

0-0

2-0

Wake Forest

103.6

102.9

103.9

103.5

0-0

2-0

Florida St.

102.9

103.2

102.7

103.0

0-0

1-1

Louisville

95.5

94.9

94.3

94.9

0-0

1-1

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

109.4

108.5

110.5

109.5

0-1

0-2

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

1-0

2-0

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.3

105.2

105.4

0-1

1-1

Virginia Tech

104.6

104.8

104.9

104.8

0-1

1-1

North Carolina

103.1

103.9

104.6

103.9

1-0

2-0

Duke

103.7

103.1

103.4

103.4

0-0

1-1

Georgia Tech

99.0

97.1

99.5

98.5

0-1

1-1

ACC Averages

106.0

105.5

106.3

105.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

120.4

119.4

120.1

120.0

0-0

2-0

Texas

112.1

111.9

111.8

111.9

0-0

1-1

Baylor

111.6

111.8

111.3

111.6

0-0

2-0

Iowa St.

110.2

110.6

110.1

110.3

0-0

1-0

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.6

110.1

0-0

2-0

Kansas St.

110.1

110.0

109.9

110.0

0-0

2-0

Texas Tech

107.6

107.9

106.7

107.4

0-0

2-0

West Virginia

103.5

103.0

102.8

103.1

0-0

1-1

T C U

101.3

105.1

101.7

102.7

0-0

1-0

Kansas

92.6

93.7

92.1

92.8

0-0

1-1

Big 12 Averages

107.9

108.4

107.6

108.0

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

124.9

123.2

125.3

124.5

0-0

2-0

Michigan

119.3

117.2

119.6

118.7

0-0

2-0

Michigan St.

117.8

117.5

118.2

117.8

0-0

2-0

Penn St.

116.6

115.6

116.4

116.2

0-0

2-0

Indiana

110.6

108.8

109.4

109.6

0-0

2-0

Maryland

109.8

109.4

108.9

109.4

0-0

2-0

Rutgers

92.0

92.0

91.6

91.9

0-1

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

116.8

116.5

116.7

116.7

0-0

2-0

Iowa

115.2

113.0

115.1

114.4

1-0

2-0

Northwestern

110.9

109.9

109.9

110.2

0-0

0-1

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.3

109.9

0-0

2-0

Purdue

109.4

109.2

109.0

109.2

0-0

1-1

Nebraska

105.4

106.8

104.8

105.7

0-0

1-1

Illinois

98.7

99.8

97.8

98.8

0-0

2-0

Big Ten Averages

111.3

110.6

110.9

110.9

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.3

92.9

94.4

93.5

0-0

1-1

Middle Tennessee

91.6

90.8

91.9

91.4

0-0

1-1

Florida Int’l.

89.7

89.4

90.0

89.7

0-1

0-2

Florida Atlantic

89.8

88.9

90.3

89.7

0-0

0-2

Western Kentucky

86.9

87.8

88.6

87.7

1-0

1-1

Charlotte

86.8

87.2

87.1

87.0

0-0

1-1

Old Dominion

77.6

78.0

77.8

77.8

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.8

92.2

95.0

94.0

0-0

1-1

North Texas

91.7

90.9

92.4

91.7

0-0

1-1

Louisiana Tech

89.1

88.7

88.9

88.9

0-0

1-1

U A B

85.5

87.2

86.1

86.3

0-0

2-0

Rice

79.2

80.8

78.5

79.5

0-0

0-2

Texas-San Antonio

76.6

79.1

76.1

77.2

0-0

1-1

U T E P

66.7

72.2

67.1

68.6

0-0

1-1

CUSA Averages

85.7

86.2

86.0

85.9

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.4

118.6

120.4

119.8

x

1-0

BYU

102.2

102.1

102.2

102.2

x

1-1

Army

101.9

102.0

101.7

101.9

x

1-1

Liberty

86.9

88.0

86.9

87.2

x

0-2

New Mexico St.

76.9

79.1

76.5

77.5

x

0-2

Massachusetts

69.9

72.7

69.3

70.6

x

0-2

Indep. Averages

93.0

93.7

92.8

93.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.7

95.6

98.1

96.8

0-0

1-1

Miami (Ohio)

90.4

88.7

90.9

90.0

0-0

1-1

Buffalo

87.1

87.8

88.2

87.7

0-0

1-1

Kent St.

85.7

85.9

86.1

85.9

0-0

1-1

Akron

79.8

80.1

79.6

79.8

0-0

0-2

Bowling Green

77.8

77.7

78.0

77.9

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.2

96.8

98.3

97.8

0-0

1-1

Northern Illinois

95.0

93.8

95.3

94.7

0-0

1-1

Toledo

91.4

91.6

92.5

91.8

0-0

0-1

Eastern Michigan

89.2

89.4

89.8

89.5

0-0

1-1

Ball St.

87.2

86.8

86.9

87.0

0-0

1-1

Central Michigan

76.0

76.9

75.9

76.2

0-0

1-1

MAC Averages

87.9

87.6

88.3

87.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.1

104.9

107.5

106.1

0-0

1-1

Boise St.

106.0

105.3

106.3

105.9

0-0

2-0

Air Force

97.9

99.2

98.7

98.6

0-0

1-0

Wyoming

96.4

98.6

97.0

97.3

0-0

2-0

New Mexico

83.3

86.4

82.7

84.2

0-0

1-0

Colorado St.

80.5

84.8

80.7

82.0

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.8

100.4

100.5

100.2

0-0

0-2

San Diego St.

97.8

99.7

97.7

98.4

0-0

2-0

Hawaii

97.1

99.0

96.5

97.5

0-0

2-0

Nevada

91.4

93.1

91.2

91.9

0-0

1-1

U N L V

84.4

86.6

84.3

85.1

0-0

1-1

San Jose St.

82.6

84.6

81.7

83.0

0-0

1-1

MWC Averages

93.6

95.2

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.1

116.1

117.2

116.5

0-0

1-1

Washington St.

113.1

112.3

113.5

113.0

0-0

2-0

Washington

112.2

111.4

113.1

112.2

0-1

1-1

California

108.4

108.4

109.9

108.9

1-0

2-0

Stanford

106.2

105.3

106.1

105.9

0-1

1-1

Oregon St.

94.8

96.1

93.6

94.8

0-0

0-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-0

2-0

U S C

107.2

108.4

107.9

107.9

1-0

2-0

Arizona St.

106.0

105.0

106.4

105.8

0-0

2-0

U C L A

101.3

101.0

100.4

100.9

0-0

0-2

Arizona

100.8

100.9

101.0

100.9

0-0

1-1

Colorado

100.1

99.9

100.3

100.1

0-0

2-0

Pac-12 Averages

106.9

106.6

107.2

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

125.4

123.4

125.8

124.9

1-0

2-0

Florida

120.2

117.3

119.2

118.9

0-0

2-0

Missouri

114.4

111.8

114.5

113.6

0-0

1-1

South Carolina

112.3

110.9

112.3

111.8

0-0

1-1

Kentucky

108.3

107.2

107.2

107.6

0-0

2-0

Tennessee

106.3

106.0

104.7

105.7

0-0

0-2

Vanderbilt

103.1

101.9

102.0

102.3

0-1

0-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.8

132.0

136.7

134.8

0-0

2-0

L S U

125.9

123.2

124.7

124.6

0-0

2-0

Texas A&M

118.8

117.2

117.7

117.9

0-0

1-1

Auburn

117.0

114.8

116.3

116.0

0-0

2-0

Mississippi St.

116.4

111.9

116.0

114.8

0-0

2-0

Ole Miss

102.8

102.0

101.8

102.2

1-0

1-1

Arkansas

98.2

98.9

97.3

98.2

0-1

1-1

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.0

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.0

103.1

104.2

104.1

0-0

2-0

Georgia Southern

95.8

95.0

95.0

95.3

0-0

1-1

Troy

95.1

95.7

94.1

95.0

0-0

1-0

Georgia St.

88.7

90.3

87.8

88.9

0-0

2-0

Coastal Carolina

83.4

84.6

82.5

83.5

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

94.9

95.2

94.3

94.8

0-0

1-1

Arkansas St.

93.7

94.1

93.6

93.8

0-0

1-1

Louisiana-Monroe

90.6

91.4

90.8

90.9

0-0

1-1

Texas St.

84.1

85.2

84.2

84.5

0-0

0-2

South Alabama

76.4

80.0

75.4

77.3

0-0

1-1

SBC Averages

90.8

91.5

90.2

90.8

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.8

2

BTen

110.9

3

B12

108.0

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.9

6

AAC

96.0

7

MWC

94.2

8

Ind

93.2

9

SUN

90.8

10

MAC

87.9

11

CUSA

85.9

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Central Florida

2

Utah St.

3

Boise St.

4

Cincinnati

5

Appalachian St.

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

This week’s bowl projections finds an uncanny nine bowl spots needing at-large teams.  With Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina struggling, and with Missouri ineligible for a bowl, the SEC could field just eight bowl eligible teams.  Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Florida could all be in a NY6 bowl, which means the SEC could fall five teams short fulfilling their bowl agreements.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Houston

[Colorado]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Cincinnati

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Northern Illinois

Louisiana

Las Vegas

MWC

Pac-12

Boise St.

USC

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

North Texas

Troy

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

[Buffalo]

Charlotte

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

Hawaii

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Southern Miss.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Miami (Fla.)

Nebraska

Military

ACC

AAC

Syracuse

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Boston College

Maryland

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Central Florida

Georgia

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

UAB

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Western Michigan]

Virginia Tech

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

[Purdue]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

North Carolina St.

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Army]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

UL-Monroe

Wyoming

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

California

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Michigan St.

Texas A&M

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Kentucky

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

LSU

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

[Georgia Southern]

[Liberty]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Auburn

Michigan

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Indiana

Fresno St.

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Appalachian St.

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

 

 

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Alabama

Ohio St.

 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Heat on a Seat and Hot Coaches

Look all over the Internet, and listen all over sports talk radio this week, and you will hear about college football coaches on the way to unemployment. In Knoxville, Tennessee, the talk isn’t if second year Volunteer coach Jeremy Pruitt will be ousted at the end of the season, it’s whether he can make it to November. Pruitt doesn’t have the talent on either side of the ball to compete, and he should get more time to turn things around on Rocky Top, but the fans might not allow this to happen.

Making things a little worse for Pruitt, former coach Urban Meyer made statements about how the Volunteers should be a top 10 program. Might Meyer be already campaigning for this job as insurance in the event that Clay Helton builds on his 2-0 start at USC and keeps his job?

Willie Taggart was about to join Pruitt at the very hottest of the seats, but his Florida State Seminoles survived an overtime scare to beat Louisiana-Monroe. Playing at Virginia may be a tough pill for Seminole fans to swallow. If Florida State loses this game, that will make the Seminoles 6-9 in Taggart’s year and a quarter in Tallahassee. FSU could be headed to their worst back-to-back records since Darrell Mudra went 4-18 in 1974 and 1975.

Chip Kelly’s UCLA offense looks weaker than the end of the Karl Dorrell era in Westwood. Will the Bruin fans allow another year of this if UCLA falls to 6th in the South Division? Neither Cincinnati nor San Diego State are juggernauts, as the Bearcats fell 42-0 to Ohio State, while San Diego State had narrowly edged Weber State the week prior.

There three coaches appear to have the hottest seats in college football, but what about the opposite end of the equation? Which coaches are the hottest commodities at this point of the season? Who might be a head coach in 2020 at a bigger program than where he is now?

I have broken this down into four categories. The lowest on the food chain are the handful of FCS head coaches that might move up. The past record is so-so when a champion FCS coach moves to FBS. For every Jim Tressel and Bobby Bowden, you have coaches that totally flamed out when moving up. Wyoming is hoping that Craig Bohl proves to be a better hire than Joe Glenn. Glenn was the hottest FCS coach when the Cowboys hired him away from Montana following a 39-6 three-year record. Glenn went 30-41 in Laramie. Bohl came from North Dakota State, where he won three consecutive FCS Championships, and so far he is 30-35 at Wyoming, but 24-17 in his last three years and two games.

Second on the list are the coordinators at some successful FBS programs. Some of the best college head coaches ascended to their jobs from coordinator positions. Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, Ryan Day at Ohio State, and Kirby Smart at Georgia were coordinators at big time programs before becoming head coaches.

Third on the list are current head coaches at FBS schools in line to move to a bigger and better program. These can be both Group of 5 and Power 5 coaches.
Finally, there are some (one) currently out of coaching coaches. This person may be working for Fox Sports today. He claims he has retired, but until he is out of the game for a few years, nobody believes this.

Here’s the PiRate 2-deep of coaches. These 22 could improve a downtrodden program.

Category 1: Current FCS Head Coaches

Many of the top FCS teams in 2019 have first or second year coaches, because their program has produced new hires elsewhere. In addition, some of the remaining great FCS coaches are at a point in their careers where they are not going to have a chance to be hired at the FBS level, or they have previously failed as an FBS coach.
There are three prime coaches in this level that the PiRate Ratings believes can move to FBS and succeed.

1.Jay Hill, Weber State: Hill is 44 years old and has many coaching years left in his career. He’s spent most of his career in the State of Utah, having been an assistant with the Utes. At Weber State, he’s made the playoffs three years in a row, and his Wildcats have won consecutive Big Sky Conference titles. If a Group of 5 job opens out west, like New Mexico or UTEP, Hill could be in line to get a FBS job.

2. Brian Bohananon, Kennesaw St.: At 48, Bohannon is nearing the time where he will have to make the move up to FBS or be content to remain in FCS football. He won immediately after building this program up from scratch, and KSU almost won at Kent State this past weekend. The one possible issue is that Bohannon is a triple option style coach coming from the Paul Johnson coaching tree. KSU averaged more than 350 yards per game on the ground last year, and the service academies and Georgia Tech proved you can win at the FBS level with this offense. Will fans of a school concur?

3. Bob Surace, Princeton: Are you looking for another Urban Meyer in the making? Surace’s Princeton teams have been big-time spread offense powerhouses. The Tigers could run for 300 and pass for 200 yards a game, and that’s a hard task to stop. Princeton went 10-0 last year, beating 9-1 Dartmouth in the top Ivy League game in 30+ years. At 51, 2020 is probably the end of the line for getting a job at an FBS school. He could be in line for an AAC or MAC job if one became available.

Category 2: Current FBS Coordinators

This list is usually the longest of the categories, but this year it is number two. There are a handful of coordinators that appear to be on the radar to move up to the head position.

4. Bob Shoop, Mississippi State DC: Age may hamper his efforts to land a head coaching job, as he’s 53 and would be 54 in 2020. He was head coach at Columbia for three years and only went 7-23, but Columbia has been the bottom feeder of the Ivy League for almost 60 years. Winning in any sport in upper Manhattan is nearly impossible. Shoop should be judged on his excellent defensive work with Boston College, Vanderbilt, Penn State, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. State led the SEC in scoring and led the nation in total defense last year and finished second in the nation in scoring defense. With LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Kentucky on the schedule, that’s quite a feat.

5. Chris Long, Notre Dame OC: Long produced big numbers in his one year as OC at Memphis before coming to South Bend to run the Irish offense. In 2017, he helped the Irish offense roll up more than 440 total yards and 34 points per game with dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush. Last year, the Irish made the playoffs with pro-style QB Ian Book guiding the team to 31 points and 440 yards of offense. Notre Dame has a history of moving coordinators to head coaching hires at other schools, but it’s been a mixed bag at best. You may not know the name John Ray. He may have had the brightest star of any past Irish coordinator, after his defense led Notre Dame to the 1966 national championship while giving up less than four points per game. He was hired to turn Kentucky back into a big time football program and in four years, Ray went 10-33 in Lexington and 4-24 in the SEC. Giving up 58 points to a mediocre Indiana team in his debut set the stage for four years of despair at Stoll Field. Long is just 36 years old, so he’s got additional time to prove himself.

6. Alex Grinch, Oklahoma DC: Grinch is in his first year at Oklahoma after spending time as Urban Meyer’s DC at Ohio State. If Oklahoma shows any improvement defensively this year, the Sooners are a threat to win it all, and Grinch would become a hero ready to take over a team of his own.

7. Dave Aranda, LSU DC: Prior to this year, LSU had to rely on stingy defense and conservative offense to win games. Coach Ed Orgeron has opened up the offense in 2019, and quarterback Joe Burrow is slinging the ball all over the yard. This has led to a great 2-0 start for the Tigers, but it means that Arranda’s defense must play extra snaps. There were some incredible and some not so incredible results against Texas, and there will probably be some issues stopping top notch offenses remaining on the schedule, but LSU has the talent and coaching to compete with Alabama and Georgia for the SEC Championship. If Arranda’s defense produces a “Chinese Bandits” year in Baton Rouge, look for another school to come calling to make him the head coach.

8. Brent Venables, Clemson DC: Where not going to kid you about this; Venables is number one with a bullet among this category. If Clemson should run the table again this year, Trevor Lawrence and the offense will get most of the credit. However, Clemson finished number one nationally last year in scoring defense and number five in total defense. The Tigers had to reload on the stop side of the ball, as that incredible front four of 2018 closed up their college careers. In two games into the new season, Clemson has given up just 12 points per game. Before coming to Clemson, Venables ran the defense at Oklahoma, and defense slowly disappeared in Norman after he left.

 

Category 3: Current FBS Head Coaches at Power 5 Schools

9. Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia: Virginia had fallen on hard times with seven losing season in eight years under former coaches Al Groh and Mike London. After a rough first year in Charlottesville, Mendenhall began to produce magic like he did at BYU. Bryce Perkins may be the best QB in the ACC not named Lawrence, and Virginia is the current favorite to win the Coastal Division title. Mendenhall is 53 and maybe on the upper limits of his being able to move to another school, but if his alma mater comes knocking, he could take the Oregon State job.

10. Matt Rhule, Baylor: Baylor was in dire straits following all the damage done by former coach Art Briles. The Bears had moved into the top 10 on an annual basis before the bottom fell out in the wake of a sexual assault scandal. After a 1-11 debut in Waco, Rhule turned things around and guided Baylor to a 7-6 season and Texas Bowl win last year. His team is 2-0 to start this season, and they Bears are now a strong contender for the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Rhule turned the program around at Temple before coming to Baylor, and he was 20-7 in his final two years in Philadelphia, including a win over Penn State. Rhule could be the answer at a bigger Power 5 school. Or, he could take Baylor back to where it was at the beginning of this decade.

11. Matt Campbell, Iowa St.: Campbell’s name has been rumored at USC, and it was rumored at Ohio State, but he’s more likely to stay at Iowa State until a top 10 program comes along and seeks his services. Even if the USC job should become available, his name might not be “sexy” enough for the Socal fanatics. Campbell has done an incredible job in Ames, even beating Oklahoma in Norman. His Cyclones have a big game this week in the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy game with rival Iowa. If ISU wins this one, they must be considered a top contender along with Baylor for the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Add a 35-15 record with two divisional titles at Toledo, and Campbell’s resume is as good as any other potential candidate for a top 5 program.

12. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: It was expected that Kentucky would struggle to win six games and return to a bowl in 2019, after the Wildcats had their best year in 41 seasons in 2018. With the loss of the best player in college football, as well as their only sure offensive weapon, the Wildcats figured to struggle and have a difficult time staying out of the SEC East cellar. But, after two games, this Kentucky team looks as strong as last year’s edition, and with issues at Tennessee, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, UK could find itself in the race for the number two spot in the division with Florida and Missouri. If Stoops guides the ‘Cats to another 10-win season, a giant may throw enough money to get him to move on. It worked rather well for two past coaches that succeeded in Lexington. Bear Bryant won national championships at Alabama, while Blanton Collier won an NFL Championship with the Cleveland Browns.

Category 4: Current Head Coaches at Group of 5 FBS Schools

13. Luke Fickell, Cincinnati: The Bearcats might be the only team in the AAC East that can give Central Florida a scare, and UC has produced past head coaches that went elsewhere and won, like Mark Dantonio and Brian Kelly. Sid Gillman was once the Cinti head coach before making a name for himself in the American Football League with the Chargers. On the other hand, Butch Jones did not fare well at Tennessee after leading this school, and the father of the triple option, Homer Rice, never won again after leaving UC for Rice and then coming back to coach the Bengals for two years. Fickell might get a chance to coach in the Big Ten down the road if he can put together a few more seasons like 2018.

14. Josh Heupel, Central Florida: Heupel replaced Scott Frost in Orlando, and the Golden Knights have continued to win using a totally different style of play. If Heupel can run the table at UCF this year and then beat a big program in the Cotton Bowl, he could be in line for a job at a Power 5 school. If for some reason Lincoln Riley takes an NFL job as has been hinted, Heupel could easily be the man his alma mater looks for as the replacement.

15. Mike Norvell, Memphis: Norvell has done more than maintain the success that Justin Fuente had at Memphis. He’s come extremely close to winning the AAC Championship. His Memphis teams have been Central Florida’s number one nemesis, and UCF had to rally twice last year to beat the Tigers as it did in the 2017 AAC Championship Game. Norvell has experience as an assistant in the Pac-12, and if a Pac-12 job other than USC became available at the end of the year, he’d have to be a contender.

16. Willie Fritz, Tulane: Fritz has been a winner at every stop along the way in his career. He guided Tulane to a bowl win last year, the first time the Green Wave had won a bowl in 16 years. He won 18 games in two years at Georgia Southern including the Eagles’ first ever bowl win before coming to New Orleans, and prior to that, he went 40-15 at Sam Houston and 97-47 at Central Missouri. He’s the second oldest candidate on this list at 59, so he’d be quite a stretch for a Power 5 school to hire. He might be more suited to a place like one of the service academies if a job opens, as his offensive style includes a lot of the option game.

17. Jeff Monken, Army: If you like Fritz, then you must love Monken. Monken was the option guru at Georgia Southern prior to Fritz, when the Eagles were still in the FCS. He went 38-16 at GSU, which included playoff appearances in the three years that they were eligible before transitioning to FBS. Monken turned Army around quickly, and his triple option offense and tough defense could work in the FBS, just like it did for his mentor Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. A school like Vanderbilt might succeed with this strategy if the Commodores have an opening. Or, Monken could get a financial promotion to coach at a Group of 5 school in a conference, where he would have a chance to compete for a New Year’s Six Bowl. UTEP or Connecticut might be willing to take a chance.

18. Seth Littrell, North Texas: Now, let’s go to the other end of the spectrum. Littrell is an Air Raid coach, and he’s going to be missing the pilot of his offense when Mason Fine graduates at the end of this school year. North Texas has been quite entertaining to watch in Littrell’s time in Denton. While the OC at North Carolina, he tutored Mitch Trubisky and left Chapel Hill for this job following an 11-3 season that has not been matched since he moved on. A school like Illinois or Rutgers might be interested in him if they have to hire a coach in 2020.

19. Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan: Winning at EMU is one of the toughest assignments an FBS coach can undertake. Between 1975 and 2013 (1975 was their first as D1), EMU made it to one bowl game. Between 1990 and 2013, EMU had one winning season. Since Creighton came to Ypsilanti, the Eagles have had two winning seasons and two bowl appearances in the last three years. Creighton had to earn his way to FBS Football. He began at NAIA Ottawa College and then moved to D3 Wabash. He won 6 championships in 11 years below the D1 level. He took over at FCS Drake in 2008 and took the Bulldogs to a 41-22 record in six years there. This man can re-tool a program from the bottom up and should get a chance to coach at an FBS school. He’s 50, so his time is now. If EMU gets to another bowl this year, some school will most likely offer him a substantial raise. He’s a natural for a Big Ten or Big 12 job.

20. Jason Candle, Toledo: The MAC always has future Power 5 coaches roaming the sidelines, and Candle must be considered a prime suspect to make that move up, just like his predecessor, Campbell. At 39, he’s still got something to prove at Toledo, but the Rockets are always fun to watch, and this could attract schools that are having issues selling tickets.

21. Craig Bohl, Wyoming: Bohl is 24-17 in his last three years and two games in Laramie. He was 104-32 in 11 years at North Dakota State, which ended with three FCS National Championships in a row. His number one issue is the same as Fritz’s; he’s 61 and most likely won’t be approached by a major program. Still, he could be a short-time answer at a Big 12 or Pac-12 school, and Bill Snyder showed you can coach well into your 70’s. He could easily finish his career with 10 years of service.

22. Nick Rolovich, Hawaii: It might be hard to convince a coach to leave the Elysian Fields to coach on the more stressful Mainland. Rolovich has returned Hawaii to the status it enjoyed June Jones. Jones left Hawaii for SMU, and it may or may not have been the right move. Rolovich has little experience with any big time coaches that you could call mentors. He was an assistant for one year under Chris Ault at Nevada plus three years under Brian Polian. So, his name is not going to win any press conferences. Look at Hawaii’s stats under Rolovich. Some school might like 400 passing yards and 38 points per game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:13 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday

September 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

Wake Forest

-21.7

-19.5

-22.2

Boise St.

Marshall

16.3

16.3

16.0

Saturday

September 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Pittsburgh

Ohio

13.7

14.6

11.6

Virginia Tech

Old Dominion

35.6

35.7

36.2

Akron

UAB

-1.6

-3.5

-2.3

Michigan

Army

21.5

19.6

22.1

Purdue

Vanderbilt

6.9

8.1

7.2

Iowa

Rutgers

25.8

23.0

25.7

Maryland

Syracuse

-4.9

-5.0

-6.2

Missouri

West Virginia

9.6

6.9

10.0

Ohio St.

Cincinnati

16.5

16.2

16.6

Kansas St.

Bowling Green

30.1

30.0

29.4

Utah

Northern Illinois

25.1

24.8

25.4

Georgia Tech

South Florida

12.7

10.1

13.5

Colorado

Nebraska

-2.7

-4.9

-2.3

Clemson

Texas A&M

18.2

15.5

20.4

Wisconsin

Central Michigan

39.1

37.5

38.7

Appalachian St.

Charlotte

21.3

18.5

19.9

Mississippi St.

Southern Miss.

23.8

21.5

23.0

Connecticut

Illinois

-23.6

-20.2

-24.6

Baylor

UTSA

35.1

32.2

34.9

Alabama

New Mexico St.

60.8

53.3

61.9

UCLA

San Diego St.

14.5

12.0

14.0

Florida St.

Louisiana-Monroe

19.1

19.2

19.3

Texas St.

Wyoming

-9.9

-11.4

-11.0

SMU

North Texas

8.0

7.9

7.5

Tennessee

BYU

8.5

8.2

6.7

Florida Atlantic

Central Florida

-15.9

-15.7

-16.3

Florida Int’l.

Western Kentucky

8.8

7.9

7.8

Kansas

Coastal Carolina

16.7

16.8

17.5

Louisiana

Liberty

8.7

7.3

7.3

Michigan St.

Western Michigan

17.8

18.8

17.7

Texas

LSU

-11.2

-8.4

-10.6

Auburn

Tulane

21.5

18.5

20.3

Ole Miss

Arkansas

5.4

3.4

5.0

Oregon

Nevada

21.7

20.0

23.0

Penn St.

Buffalo

33.1

31.1