PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Final Polls

Congratulations go to Coach Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the National Championship in a thrilling overtime victory over the Georgia Bulldogs.  Alabama wins the top spot in all three ratings, plus the retro rankings.  Here’s how the final numbers crunched.

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Georgia
3	Ohio St.
4	Wisconsin
5	Central Florida
6	Penn St.
7	Clemson
8	Oklahoma
9	Notre Dame
10	Auburn
11	TCU
12	Michigan St.
13	Miami (Fla)
14	USC
15	Washington
16	Oklahoma St.
17	Northwestern
18	North Carolina St.
19	Iowa
20	Stanford
21	Virginia Tech
22	Mississippi St.
23	LSU
24	Memphis
25	Boise St.
26	Michigan
27	Iowa St.
28	Wake Forest
29	South Florida
30	Louisville
31	South Carolina
32	Washington St.
33	Toledo
34	Florida Atlantic
35	Boston College
36	Florida St.
37	Texas
38	Purdue
39	Kansas St.
40	San Diego St.
41	Fresno St.
42	Troy
43	Army
44	Navy
45	Texas A&M
46	Duke
47	Georgia Tech
48	Oregon
49	Utah
50	West Virginia
51	Missouri
52	Arizona St.
53	Houston
54	Texas Tech
55	Kentucky
56	Arizona
57	UCLA
58	Appalachian St.
59	Ohio
60	Indiana
61	Ole Miss
62	Pittsburgh
63	California
64	Northern Illinois
65	Temple
66	SMU
67	Minnesota
68	Marshall
69	North Texas
70	Virginia
71	Wyoming
72	Florida
73	Syracuse
74	Maryland
75	Central Michigan
76	Colorado
77	Colorado St.
78	Nebraska
79	Western Michigan
80	Louisiana Tech
81	Tulane
82	Vanderbilt
83	Arkansas St.
84	Southern Miss.
85	Florida Int’l.
86	Arkansas
87	Akron
88	Buffalo
89	Middle Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	Tennessee
92	North Carolina
93	UAB
94	Eastern Michigan
95	Rutgers
96	Air Force
97	New Mexico St.
98	UTSA
99	Miami (O)
100	Cincinnati
101	Tulsa
102	UNLV
103	Western Kentucky
104	Baylor
105	BYU
106	East Carolina
107	Nevada
108	Georgia St.
109	Massachusetts
110	Connecticut
111	Illinois
112	Old Dominion
113	UL-Monroe
114	Bowling Green
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	South Alabama
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Coastal Carolina
122	Georgia Southern
123	Kansas
124	Kent St.
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	136.9	133.5	135.8	135.4
2	Ohio St.	132.3	130.2	132.6	131.7
3	Georgia	130.8	130.0	131.4	130.7
4	Clemson	131.3	128.6	130.9	130.3
5	Penn St.	129.4	128.1	129.8	129.1
6	Oklahoma	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
7	Auburn	127.0	125.2	127.2	126.5
8	Washington	126.2	124.2	126.1	125.5
9	Wisconsin	126.4	123.9	125.5	125.3
10	Oklahoma St.	121.2	120.4	121.6	121.1
11	Stanford	120.6	119.0	119.9	119.8
12	U S C	120.1	119.2	119.8	119.7
13	L S U	118.5	116.3	118.8	117.9
14	Virginia Tech	118.1	117.6	117.9	117.8
15	Miami	118.6	117.4	117.5	117.8
16	T C U	118.0	116.5	118.2	117.6
17	N. Carolina St.	117.1	116.2	117.0	116.8
18	Central Florida	116.0	116.9	117.2	116.7
19	Louisville	116.8	116.0	116.5	116.4
20	Notre Dame	116.6	115.4	116.8	116.2
21	Florida St.	116.9	116.0	115.7	116.2
22	Northwestern	115.4	114.2	115.5	115.0
23	Iowa	114.3	114.5	113.6	114.2
24	Michigan	114.2	114.0	113.4	113.9
25	Mississippi St.	113.5	113.3	113.3	113.4
26	Memphis	113.2	112.5	114.0	113.2
27	Iowa State	112.8	112.8	113.9	113.2
28	Texas	112.9	112.9	113.5	113.1
29	Kansas St.	112.9	112.7	113.0	112.9
30	Boston College	112.6	112.3	112.6	112.5
31	Michigan St.	111.0	111.6	112.1	111.6
32	Wake Forest	112.1	110.4	112.2	111.6
33	Duke	111.1	110.0	110.4	110.5
34	Utah	109.9	109.9	110.1	110.0
35	Oregon	110.5	108.6	109.9	109.7
36	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
37	Washington St.	109.8	107.7	109.3	108.9
38	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
39	S. Carolina	109.1	108.3	108.2	108.5
40	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
41	Missouri	108.5	107.1	107.8	107.8
42	Boise St.	107.5	106.1	107.6	107.1
43	Texas A&M	107.9	106.0	107.0	107.0
44	West Virginia	106.7	107.4	106.7	106.9
45	Arizona St.	106.4	105.3	106.0	105.9
46	Kentucky	106.4	105.7	105.0	105.7
47	Purdue	105.6	105.4	106.1	105.7
48	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
49	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
50	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
51	Arizona	106.0	104.9	104.9	105.3
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Florida Atlantic	103.4	104.9	105.3	104.5
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	Navy	103.5	104.1	103.7	103.8
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	U C L A	103.0	102.4	102.3	102.6
58	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
59	San Diego St.	101.5	101.5	102.5	101.8
60	Houston	101.4	101.1	101.5	101.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Army	100.9	100.8	101.3	101.0
63	Appalachian St.	101.2	100.0	101.4	100.9
64	Toledo	100.1	100.1	102.1	100.8
65	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Troy	99.7	99.8	99.9	99.8
68	Fresno St.	99.9	98.6	100.8	99.8
69	Colo. State	99.8	99.1	99.7	99.5
70	Virginia	99.6	98.6	99.9	99.4
71	Ohio U	98.3	99.6	99.3	99.1
72	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
73	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
74	Temple	98.2	98.5	98.8	98.5
75	Wyoming	97.8	96.9	97.2	97.3
76	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
77	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
78	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.0	95.8	95.2
79	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
80	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
81	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
82	Arkansas St.	93.8	95.0	94.7	94.5
83	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
84	SMU	94.0	94.5	94.3	94.3
85	Utah St.	94.0	93.3	93.7	93.7
86	Marshall	92.4	93.5	93.8	93.3
87	Central Michigan	92.8	93.1	93.4	93.1
88	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
89	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
90	Louisiana Tech	90.8	92.4	91.6	91.6
91	Middle Tennessee	90.4	91.4	91.6	91.1
92	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
93	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	Massachusetts	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
98	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
99	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
100	Florida Int’l.	87.6	88.0	88.4	88.0
101	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
102	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.4	87.8	87.9
103	N. Texas	86.4	87.8	86.9	87.0
104	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
105	N. Mexico St.	86.8	85.7	86.9	86.5
106	W. Kentucky	85.7	86.2	86.1	86.0
107	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
108	Akron	84.2	86.1	84.9	85.1
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Georgia St.	82.7	82.7	82.5	82.7
113	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
114	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
115	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
116	UL-Monroe	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
117	S. Alabama	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
118	Idaho	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
119	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
120	UAB	79.6	79.9	81.3	80.3
121	UL-Lafayette	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
122	Georgia Southern	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
123	Coastal Carolina	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
124	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	112.7	111.6	112.2	112.2
2	SEC	112.0	110.7	111.4	111.4
3	B12	109.8	109.9	110.0	109.9
4	P-12	109.4	108.1	108.6	108.7
5	BTEN	108.8	108.6	108.5	108.6
6	IND	99.1	98.6	99.2	99.0
7	AAC	97.9	98.3	98.2	98.1
8	MWC	92.2	92.2	92.3	92.2
9	MAC	88.2	89.1	89.0	88.8
10	CUSA	84.4	85.8	85.2	85.1
11	SBC	84.3	85.0	84.3	84.5

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football National Championship Game Preview

2017-18 College Football National Championship Game

#3 Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) vs. #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)

Date: Monday, January 8, 2018

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Standard

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

TV: ESPN

Announcers: Chris Fowler–Play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit–Color commentary, Maria Taylor–Sideline, Tom Rinaldi–Sideline

Radio: ESPN

Announcers: Sean McDonough–Play-by-play, Todd Blackledge–Color commentary, Holly Rowe–Sideline, Ian Fitzsimmons–Sideline

Officiating: Big Ten Staff

Las Vegas Line (as of Tuesday, January 2, 2018, 4:00 PM EST

Spread: Alabama by 4 1/2

Money line: Alabama -200,  Georgia +170

Total: 45 1/2

PiRate Ratings

PiRate: Alabama by 6.5

Mean: Alabama by 3.7

Bias: Alabama by 4.8

Reasonable Expected Score: Alabama 31  Georgia 26

100 Computer Simulations

Wins: Alabama 68  Georgia 32

Average Score: Alabama 33  Georgia 27

Outlier ALA: Alabama 38  Georgia 9

Outlier GA: Georgia 27  Alabama 16 

 

 

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Bowls & Playoffs Preview

2017-18 Bowls & Playoffs Schedule

All times are EST

Saturday, December 16

New Orleans Bowl: 1:00 PM on ESPN

North Texas (9-4) vs. Troy (10-2)

 

Cure Bowl: 2:30 PM on CBSSN

Western Kentucky (6-6) vs. Georgia St. (6-5)

 

Las Vegas Bowl: 3:30 PM on ABC

Boise St. (10-3) vs. Oregon (7-5)

 

New Mexico Bowl: 4:30 PM on ESPN

Marshall (7-5) vs. Colorado St. (7-5)

 

Camellia Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Middle Tennessee (6-6) vs. Arkansas St. (7-4)

 

Tuesday, December 19

Boca Raton Bowl: 7:00 PM on ESPN

Akron (7-6) vs. Florida Atlantic (10-3)

 

Wednesday, December 20

Frisco Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

SMU (7-5) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-6)

 

Thursday, December 21

Gasparilla Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Temple (6-6) vs. Florida Int’l. (8-4)

 

Friday, December 22

Bahamas Bowl: 12:30 PM on ESPN

UAB (8-4) vs. Ohio U. (8-4)

 

Idaho Potato Bowl: 4:00 PM on ESPN

Central Michigan (8-4) vs. Wyoming (7-5)

 

Saturday, December 23

Birmingham Bowl: 12:00 PM on ESPN

South Florida (9-2) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)

 

Armed Forces Bowl: 3:30 PM on ESPN

Army (9-3) vs. San Diego St. (10-2)

 

Dollar General Bowl: 7:00 PM on ESPN

Toledo (11-2) vs. Appalachian St. (8-4)

 

Sunday, December 24

Hawaii Bowl: 8:30 PM on ESPN

Houston (7-4) vs. Fresno St. (9-4)

 

Tuesday, December 26

Heart of Dallas Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

West Virginia (7-5) vs. Utah (6-6)

 

Quick Lane Bowl: 5:00 PM on ESPN

Duke (6-6) vs. Northern Illinois (8-4)

 

Cactus Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. UCLA (6-6)

 

Wednesday, December 27

Independence Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

Florida St. (6-6) vs. Southern Miss. (8-4)

 

Pinstripe Bowl: 5:15 PM on ESPN

Boston College (7-5) vs. Iowa (7-5)

 

Foster Farms: 8:30 PM on Fox

Purdue (6-6) vs. Arizona (7-5)

 

Texas Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

Texas (6-6) vs. Missouri (7-5)

 

Thursday, December 28

Military Bowl: 1:30 PM on ESPN

Navy (6-6) vs. Virginia (6-6)

 

Camping World Bowl: 5:15 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma St. (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (9-3)

 

Holiday Bowl: 9:00 PM on FS1

Michigan St. (9-3) vs. Washington St. (9-3)

 

Alamo Bowl: 9:00 PM on ESPN

TCU (10-3) vs. Stanford (9-4)

 

Friday, December 29

Belk Bowl: 1:00 PM on ESPN

Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)

 

Sun Bowl: 3:00 PM on CBS

North Carolina St. (8-4) vs. Arizona St. (7-5)

 

Music City Bowl: 4:30 PM on ESPN

Kentucky (7-5) vs. Northwestern (9-3)

 

Arizona Bowl: 5:30 PM on CBSSN

Utah St. (6-6) vs. New Mexico St. (6-6)

 

Cotton Bowl: 8:30 PM on ESPN

Ohio St. (11-2) vs. USC (11-2)

 

Saturday, December 30

Taxslayer Bowl: 12:00 PM on ESPN

Louisville (8-4) vs. Mississippi St. (8-4)

 

Liberty Bowl: 12:30 PM on ABC

Iowa St. (7-5) vs. Memphis (10-2)

 

Fiesta Bowl: 4:00 PM on ESPN

Penn St. (10-2) vs. Washington (10-2)

 

Orange Bowl: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Wisconsin (12-1) vs. Miami (Fla.) (10-2)

 

Monday, January 1

Outback Bowl: 12:00 OM on ESPN2

Michigan (8-4) vs. South Carolina (8-4)

 

Peach Bowl: 12:30 PM on ESPN

Auburn (10-3) vs. Central Florida (12-0)

 

Citrus Bowl: 1:00 PM on ABC

Notre Dame (9-3) vs. LSU (9-3)

 

New Year’s Day Playoffs

Rose Bowl: 5:00 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma (12-1) vs. Georgia (12-1)

 

Sugar Bowl: 8:45 PM on ESPN

Clemson (12-1) vs. Alabama (11-1)

 

Monday, January 8

National Championship Game: 8:00 PM on ESPN

Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner

 

PiRate Rating Spreads for Bowls/Playoffs

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Texas	Troy	-12.5	-11.2	-11.8
Georgia St.	Western Kentucky	-6.6	-6.9	-7.3
Boise St.	Oregon	-6.6	-5.7	-5.9
Marshall	Colorado St.	-10.4	-8.0	-8.7
Middle Tennessee	Arkansas St.	-5.9	-5.7	-5.7
Florida Atlantic	Akron	15.2	14.8	16.4
SMU	Louisiana Tech	11.7	10.5	11.1
Florida Int’l.	Temple	-5.8	-6.1	-5.2
UAB	Ohio U	-14.7	-16.3	-13.6
Wyoming	Central Michigan	0.4	-0.8	-1.4
South Florida	Texas Tech	3.8	3.2	4.5
San Diego St.	Army	2.4	2.3	3.2
Appalachian St.	Toledo	-5.9	-7.1	-7.7
Fresno St.	Houston	-3.5	-4.5	-2.7
West Virginia	Utah	0.2	0.7	0.2
Northern Illinois	Duke	-14.7	-13.8	-12.8
UCLA	Kansas St.	-7.7	-8.5	-8.4
Southern Miss.	Florida St.	-29.4	-27.4	-27.3
Boston College	Iowa	-0.3	-1.0	0.5
Arizona	Purdue	0.8	-0.3	-0.8
Texas	Missouri	4.2	6.3	5.5
Navy	Virginia	-1.1	0.5	-1.2
Oklahoma St.	Virginia Tech	1.9	1.8	2.6
TCU	Stanford	-1.3	-1.2	-0.6
Washington St.	Michigan St.	5.8	3.1	4.2
Wake Forest	Texas A&M	6.4	6.6	7.4
Arizona St.	North Carolina St.	-8.3	-8.7	-8.4
Kentucky	Northwestern	-8.4	-7.9	-9.9
New Mexico St.	Utah St.	-9.1	-9.6	-8.8
Ohio St.	USC	11.6	10.4	12.2
Mississippi St.	Louisville	-5.6	-4.5	-5.8
Memphis	Iowa St.	4.0	3.1	3.9
Washington	Penn St.	-2.4	-3.5	-2.7
Miami (Fla.)	Wisconsin	-3.4	-2.1	-3.6
South Carolina	Michigan	-8.3	-8.6	-8.6
Auburn	Central Florida	15.8	12.5	14.8
Notre Dame	LSU	-3.1	-1.8	-3.6
Oklahoma	Georgia	-2.4	-3.2	-1.8
Alabama	Clemson	2.8	2.4	1.7

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Final Regular Season Polls

The PiRate Poll has been updated after the Conference Championship Games, and our ratings show something different from what the Playoff Committee will decide later today.

Our Retrodictive Ratings are our closest approximation to merit based rewards.  It only factors who you beat, where you beat them, when you beat them, and in minimal fashion how you beat them.  Here are our final Retro Ratings prior to the bowls and playoffs.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Georgia
3	Oklahoma
4	Alabama
5	Ohio St.
6	Wisconsin
7	Central Florida
8	Penn St.
9	Auburn
10	Washington
11	Miami (Fla)
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Oklahoma St.
17	Stanford
18	Michigan St.
19	Michigan
20	Washington St.
21	Northwestern
22	Memphis
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Toledo
33	Wake Forest
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Appalachian St.
75	Colorado
76	Colorado St.
77	Temple
78	Nebraska
79	Western Michigan
80	Tulane
81	Arkansas St.
82	Florida Int’l.
83	Akron
84	Southern Miss.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Cincinnati
100	Western Kentucky
101	Tulsa
102	UNLV
103	Baylor
104	New Mexico St.
105	BYU
106	East Carolina
107	Nevada
108	Georgia St.
109	Massachusetts
110	Connecticut
111	Illinois
112	Old Dominion
113	UL-Monroe
114	Bowling Green
115	New Mexico
116	Idaho
117	South Alabama
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Coastal Carolina
122	Georgia Southern
123	Kansas
124	Kent St.
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

While our ratings show that Alabama should be chosen ahead of Ohio State, we believe there will be too much pressure to take two SEC teams and leave out the Big Ten and Pac-12, especially when the Rose Bowl is one of the semifinal games.

Our ratings reflect a 34-point loss by Ohio State at a mediocre Iowa team combined with a home loss to Oklahoma, which slightly offsets their wins over Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin.  Alabama’s best wins were not as impressive as the Buckeyes, but as a whole, they did beat more decent teams, and the SEC is several points better than the Big Ten.  Plus, their one loss was at Auburn, a team that had just blown Georgia off the Jordan-Hare Field.  Truth be told, if the Committee deferred to the smart guys in Nevada, Alabama would be the number one seed in the playoffs.

Our Predictive ratings back us up on this point.  However, the predictive ratings show that Ohio State is one of the four best teams at this point of the season.  We are scratching our heads on why Oklahoma is so low in the predictive ratings, because they have been improving week by week.  Unfortunately, they may have fallen between the cracks in how we update.  We have a mechanical update based on statistics and the point in which an easy win was already guaranteed, and maybe OU kept missing out on extra points due to a few yards here or there.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Clemson	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
3	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
4	Georgia	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
5	Auburn	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
6	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
7	Oklahoma	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
11	U S C	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
12	Stanford	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
13	Miami	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
14	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
15	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
16	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
17	T C U	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
18	Florida St.	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
46	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
47	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
48	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
49	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
50	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
51	Boise St.	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Florida Atlantic	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
63	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
64	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
65	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Fresno St.	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
71	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
74	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
75	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
76	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
77	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Arkansas St.	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
80	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
81	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
82	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
83	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
84	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
85	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
92	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	Massachusetts	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
98	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
99	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
100	Akron	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
103	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
104	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
105	N. Texas	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
113	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
114	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
115	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
116	UL-Monroe	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
117	S. Alabama	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
118	Idaho	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
119	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
120	Georgia St.	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
121	UL-Lafayette	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
122	Georgia Southern	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
123	Coastal Carolina	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
124	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	12-0	113.6	114.8	114.8	114.4
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-2	113.5	112.7	114.4	113.5
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	12-1	132.8	129.9	132.6	131.8
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	6-6	116.9	115.9	115.4	116.1
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-2	119.3	118.1	118.2	118.5
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	12-1	128.2	126.7	129.4	128.1
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-3	117.9	116.4	118.0	117.4
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	11-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-1	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	10-3	99.9	101.4	101.8	101.0
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	8-4	89.5	89.7	90.5	89.9
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
N. Texas	7-1	9-4	86.8	88.2	87.5	87.5
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-8	88.9	88.4	89.0	88.8
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Akron	6-2	7-6	87.7	89.6	88.4	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	11-2	103.6	103.6	105.6	104.3
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	10-3	105.7	104.5	105.8	105.3
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-4	98.9	97.6	99.8	98.8
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-4	120.7	119.1	120.1	120.0
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	11-2	120.4	119.5	120.1	120.0
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	12-1	130.6	129.9	131.2	130.6
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-3	129.4	127.3	129.6	128.8
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	7-1	10-2	99.3	99.4	99.3	99.3
Appalachian St.	7-1	8-4	97.7	96.5	97.9	97.4
Arkansas St.	6-2	7-4	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
N. Mexico St.	4-4	6-6	85.8	84.7	85.9	85.5
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-8	81.9	82.8	81.0	81.9
S. Alabama	3-5	4-8	81.1	83.0	81.3	81.8
Idaho	3-5	4-8	80.8	81.6	81.7	81.3
Georgia St.	5-3	6-5	80.9	81.0	80.6	80.9
UL-Lafayette	4-4	5-7	79.3	80.5	79.0	79.6
Georgia Southern	2-6	2-10	79.1	80.4	78.5	79.3
Coastal Carolina	2-6	3-9	74.5	75.7	75.3	75.2
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.1	112.0	112.6	112.6
2	SEC	112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
5	BIG TEN	108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	98.7	98.3	98.7	98.6
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.2	85.6	85.0	84.9
11	Sun Belt	83.8	84.5	83.8	84.1

Look for our bowl and playoff spreads following next week’s Army – Navy game.

If you didn’t see our Army-Navy spread last week, it is:

Philadelphia	PA	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army (n)	Navy	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3

Why the unique color purple?

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PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for December 1-2 & 9, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads (+Army-Navy for next week)

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
USC (n)	Stanford	-0.7	0.2	-0.6
Central Florida	Memphis	3.5	5.5	4.0
Florida St.	UL-Monroe	38.0	36.1	37.4
Toledo (n)	Akron	16.0	13.5	17.2
Florida Atlantic	North Texas	14.3	14.8	15.0
Oklahoma (n)	TCU	6.5	6.9	7.2
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	-6.2	-5.9	-5.0
Georgia St.	Idaho	7.5	6.3	6.5
Appy St.	UL-Lafayette	15.7	13.2	15.6
Arkansas St.	Troy	-0.8	0.0	0.5
Georgia (n)	Auburn	-3.1	-1.1	-3.1
New Mexico St.	South Alabama	7.9	4.7	7.8
Boise St.	Fresno St.	10.6	10.5	10.0
Miami (Fla.) (n)	Clemson	-7.9	-6.4	-8.6
Wisconsin (n)	Ohio St.	-6.3	-6.7	-7.5
Army (n)	Navy	-0.4	-1.0	-0.3

(n) means neutral site game

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Rankings (Based on past results and not predictive of the future)

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Wisconsin
3	Alabama
4	Oklahoma
5	Georgia
6	Auburn
7	Ohio St.
8	Central Florida
9	Penn St.
10	Miami (Fla)
11	Washington
12	USC
13	Notre Dame
14	TCU
15	Virginia Tech
16	Stanford
17	Oklahoma St.
18	Michigan St.
19	Memphis
20	Michigan
21	Washington St.
22	Northwestern
23	LSU
24	North Carolina St.
25	Iowa
26	Louisville
27	Mississippi St.
28	Boston College
29	South Florida
30	Iowa St.
31	Boise St.
32	Wake Forest
33	Toledo
34	South Carolina
35	San Diego St.
36	Oregon
37	Florida Atlantic
38	Florida St.
39	Arizona St.
40	Texas A&M
41	Texas
42	West Virginia
43	Purdue
44	Georgia Tech
45	Kansas St.
46	Missouri
47	Arizona
48	Fresno St.
49	UCLA
50	Navy
51	Troy
52	Houston
53	Texas Tech
54	Utah
55	Army
56	Kentucky
57	Duke
58	SMU
59	Northern Illinois
60	Indiana
61	Virginia
62	North Texas
63	California
64	Ole Miss
65	Ohio
66	Pittsburgh
67	Central Michigan
68	Minnesota
69	Florida
70	Syracuse
71	Maryland
72	Wyoming
73	Marshall
74	Colorado
75	Colorado St.
76	Temple
77	Nebraska
78	Western Michigan
79	Tulane
80	Arkansas St.
81	Akron
82	Appalachian St.
83	Southern Miss.
84	Florida Int’l.
85	Vanderbilt
86	Buffalo
87	Arkansas
88	UAB
89	Tennessee
90	Utah St.
91	North Carolina
92	Eastern Michigan
93	Rutgers
94	Air Force
95	Louisiana Tech
96	Middle Tennessee
97	UTSA
98	Miami (O)
99	Georgia St.
100	Cincinnati
101	Western Kentucky
102	Tulsa
103	UNLV
104	Baylor
105	Massachusetts
106	East Carolina
107	New Mexico St.
108	BYU
109	Nevada
110	Connecticut
111	UL-Monroe
112	Illinois
113	Old Dominion
114	UL-Lafayette
115	Bowling Green
116	South Alabama
117	New Mexico
118	Idaho
119	Oregon St.
120	Hawaii
121	Georgia Southern
122	Kansas
123	Kent St.
124	Coastal Carolina
125	Ball St.
126	Rice
127	Charlotte
128	Texas St.
129	San Jose St.
130	UTEP

Predictive Ratings (Forward looking for the next game on the schedule)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
2	Ohio St.	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
3	Auburn	131.3	128.9	131.7	130.6
4	Clemson	130.0	127.2	129.7	129.0
5	Penn St.	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
6	Georgia	128.2	127.8	128.6	128.2
7	Oklahoma	126.3	125.0	127.3	126.2
8	Washington	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
9	Wisconsin	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
10	Miami	122.1	120.8	121.1	121.3
11	Oklahoma St.	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
12	Stanford	120.9	119.2	120.4	120.2
13	U S C	120.2	119.4	119.8	119.8
14	T C U	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
15	L S U	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
16	Virginia Tech	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
17	Louisville	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
18	Florida St.	117.1	116.1	115.7	116.3
19	Notre Dame	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
20	N. Carolina St.	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
21	Michigan	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
22	Northwestern	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
23	Central Florida	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
24	Iowa	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
25	Memphis	113.3	112.5	114.1	113.3
26	Iowa State	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
27	Boston College	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
28	Washington St.	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
29	Mississippi St.	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
30	Texas	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
31	Kansas St.	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
32	Wake Forest	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
33	Oregon	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
34	Duke	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
35	Georgia Tech	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
36	South Florida	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
37	Missouri	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
38	West Virginia	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
39	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
40	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
41	Michigan St.	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
42	Arizona St.	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
43	S. Carolina	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
44	Texas A&M	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
45	Boise St.	106.1	104.8	106.3	105.7
46	Indiana	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
47	Ole Miss	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
48	Purdue	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
49	Kentucky	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
50	Arizona	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
51	Florida	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
52	Texas Tech	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
53	Toledo	103.6	103.4	105.6	104.2
54	California	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
55	U C L A	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
56	Colorado	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
57	Virginia	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
58	San Diego St.	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
59	Houston	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
60	N. Carolina	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
61	Syracuse	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
62	Colo. State	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
63	Navy	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
64	Minnesota	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
65	Florida Atlantic	99.0	100.7	100.7	100.1
66	Vanderbilt	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
67	Army	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
68	Troy	99.1	99.2	98.9	99.1
69	Arkansas	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
70	Baylor	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
71	Fresno St.	98.5	97.3	99.3	98.4
72	SMU	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
73	Ohio U	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
74	Temple	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
75	Tennessee	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
76	Northern Illinois	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
77	Arkansas St.	95.2	96.3	96.4	96.0
78	Western Michigan	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
79	Central Michigan	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
80	Nebraska	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
81	Wyoming	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
82	Eastern Michigan	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
83	Maryland	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
84	Utah St.	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
85	Appalachian St.	94.8	93.6	94.8	94.4
86	Tulane	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
87	Tulsa	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
88	Air Force	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
89	Marshall	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
90	Rutgers	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
91	Massachusetts	90.8	90.0	91.1	90.6
92	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
93	BYU	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
94	Nevada	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
95	Miami (O)	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
96	Oregon St.	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
97	U T S A	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
98	Buffalo	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
99	Akron	87.7	89.8	88.4	88.6
100	N. Texas	87.7	88.9	88.6	88.4
101	Louisiana Tech	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
102	Florida Int’l.	87.6	88.1	88.4	88.1
103	Southern Miss.	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
104	Illinois	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
105	W. Kentucky	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
106	U N L V	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
107	N. Mexico St.	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
108	Connecticut	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
109	Cincinnati	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
110	New Mexico	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
111	East Carolina	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
112	Georgia St.	83.1	82.9	82.9	83.0
113	UL-Lafayette	82.2	83.4	82.1	82.6
114	Kansas	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
115	UAB	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
116	UL-Monroe	82.1	83.0	81.3	82.1
117	Bowling Green	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
118	Hawaii	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
119	S. Alabama	81.0	83.0	81.2	81.7
120	Old Dominion	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
121	Georgia Southern	80.9	82.0	80.4	81.1
122	Idaho	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
123	Kent St.	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
124	Coastal Carolina	72.7	74.1	73.4	73.4
125	Rice	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
126	San Jose St.	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
127	Texas St.	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
128	Charlotte	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
129	U T E P	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
130	Ball St.	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6

PiRate Rating by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	8-0	11-0	113.8	115.0	115.1	114.6
South Florida	6-2	9-2	109.0	108.2	109.3	108.8
Temple	4-4	6-6	96.3	96.8	96.7	96.6
Connecticut	2-6	3-9	84.5	86.3	84.8	85.2
Cincinnati	2-6	4-8	83.9	85.7	84.6	84.7
East Carolina	2-6	3-9	83.2	84.5	83.3	83.7
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	7-1	10-1	113.3	112.5	114.1	113.3
Houston	5-3	7-4	102.4	102.1	102.5	102.3
Navy	4-4	6-5	100.2	100.8	100.4	100.4
SMU	4-4	7-5	97.5	98.0	97.8	97.8
Tulane	3-5	5-7	94.2	94.4	94.6	94.4
Tulsa	1-7	2-10	93.1	92.8	92.7	92.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	7-1	11-1	130.0	127.2	129.7	129.0
Louisville	4-4	8-4	117.9	116.9	117.8	117.5
Florida St.	3-5	5-6	117.1	116.1	115.7	116.3
N. Carolina St.	6-2	8-4	115.9	115.1	115.7	115.6
Boston College	4-4	7-5	112.8	112.4	112.9	112.7
Wake Forest	4-4	7-5	112.2	110.5	112.3	111.7
Syracuse	2-6	4-8	102.0	100.8	101.1	101.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	7-1	10-1	122.1	120.8	121.1	121.3
Virginia Tech	5-3	9-3	118.7	118.1	118.5	118.4
Duke	3-5	6-6	110.4	109.4	109.5	109.8
Georgia Tech	4-4	5-6	110.2	108.4	108.7	109.1
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7	108.8	108.1	108.7	108.5
Virginia	3-5	6-6	103.1	102.1	103.4	102.9
N. Carolina	1-7	3-9	102.9	102.0	102.0	102.3
ACC Averages			113.2	112.0	112.6	112.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	8-1	11-1	126.3	125.0	127.3	126.2
Oklahoma St.	6-3	9-3	120.6	119.9	121.0	120.5
T C U	7-2	10-2	119.8	118.1	120.1	119.3
Iowa State	5-4	7-5	112.5	112.6	113.5	112.9
Texas	5-4	6-6	111.8	112.1	112.4	112.1
Kansas St.	5-4	7-5	111.8	111.8	111.8	111.8
West Virginia	5-4	7-5	108.4	109.0	108.5	108.6
Texas Tech	3-6	6-6	105.2	104.9	104.8	105.0
Baylor	1-8	1-11	98.1	99.4	98.2	98.6
Kansas	0-9	1-11	81.8	85.1	80.5	82.5
Big 12 Averages			109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	8-1	10-2	132.0	129.9	132.3	131.4
Penn St.	7-2	10-2	129.0	127.9	129.3	128.7
Michigan	5-4	8-4	115.8	115.5	115.1	115.5
Michigan St.	7-2	9-3	107.5	108.1	108.6	108.1
Indiana	2-7	5-7	105.5	105.6	105.9	105.7
Maryland	2-7	4-8	94.5	95.8	93.9	94.7
Rutgers	3-6	4-8	91.1	91.1	90.7	91.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	9-0	12-0	125.7	123.2	124.8	124.6
Northwestern	7-2	9-3	115.6	114.4	115.7	115.2
Iowa	4-5	7-5	114.1	114.4	113.3	114.0
Purdue	4-5	6-6	105.4	105.3	105.9	105.5
Minnesota	2-7	5-7	100.3	101.2	99.2	100.2
Nebraska	3-6	4-8	94.9	95.4	94.4	94.9
Illinois	0-9	2-10	87.9	89.0	86.8	87.9
Big Ten Averages			108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	8-0	9-3	99.0	100.7	100.7	100.1
Marshall	4-4	7-5	90.9	92.3	92.4	91.9
Middle Tennessee	4-4	6-6	89.2	90.3	90.3	89.9
Florida Int’l.	5-3	7-4	87.6	88.1	88.4	88.1
W. Kentucky	4-4	6-6	87.5	87.9	88.0	87.8
Old Dominion	3-5	5-7	80.3	82.7	80.5	81.2
Charlotte	1-7	1-11	69.5	71.8	69.7	70.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	3-5	6-5	87.6	90.0	88.4	88.6
N. Texas	7-1	9-3	87.7	88.9	88.6	88.4
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	87.3	88.9	88.1	88.1
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	87.5	88.5	88.1	88.0
UAB	6-2	8-4	81.6	81.6	83.5	82.2
Rice	1-7	1-11	72.6	74.1	73.0	73.2
U T E P	0-8	0-12	67.9	70.7	67.9	68.9
CUSA Averages			84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		9-3	116.0	115.0	116.0	115.6
Army		8-3	99.8	99.8	100.1	99.9
Massachusetts		4-7	90.8	90.0	91.1	90.6
BYU		4-9	90.0	89.9	89.9	89.9
Indep. Averages			99.1	98.7	99.3	99.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	96.3	97.9	97.1	97.1
Miami (O)	4-4	5-7	88.7	90.7	89.9	89.8
Akron	6-2	7-5	87.7	89.8	88.4	88.6
Buffalo	4-4	6-6	87.3	89.3	89.3	88.6
Bowling Green	2-6	2-10	81.5	82.6	81.8	82.0
Kent St.	1-7	2-10	73.9	75.4	74.2	74.5
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	7-1	10-2	103.6	103.4	105.6	104.2
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	95.7	95.6	96.7	96.0
Western Michigan	4-4	6-6	95.8	95.2	96.5	95.8
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	95.1	95.4	96.0	95.5
Eastern Michigan	3-5	5-7	94.7	94.8	95.1	94.9
Ball St.	0-8	2-10	65.7	67.7	66.4	66.6
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	7-1	9-3	106.1	104.8	106.3	105.7
Colo. State	5-3	7-5	101.3	100.3	101.1	100.9
Wyoming	5-3	7-5	95.5	94.6	94.6	94.9
Utah St.	4-4	6-6	95.0	94.3	94.7	94.7
Air Force	4-4	5-7	92.2	92.5	92.2	92.3
New Mexico	1-7	3-9	84.4	84.4	84.9	84.6
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	6-2	10-2	102.4	102.3	103.5	102.7
Fresno St.	7-1	9-3	98.5	97.3	99.3	98.4
Nevada	3-5	3-9	88.9	90.5	90.0	89.8
U N L V	4-4	5-7	86.2	87.7	86.3	86.8
Hawaii	1-8	3-9	81.8	82.9	81.1	81.9
San Jose St.	1-7	2-11	72.3	72.4	71.6	72.1
MWC Averages			92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	7-2	10-2	126.6	124.4	126.6	125.9
Stanford	7-2	9-3	120.9	119.2	120.4	120.2
Washington St.	6-3	9-3	113.3	111.2	112.8	112.4
Oregon	4-5	7-5	112.3	110.2	111.7	111.4
California	2-7	5-7	105.3	103.2	103.8	104.1
Oregon St.	0-9	1-11	90.0	89.9	88.4	89.4
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	8-1	10-2	120.2	119.4	119.8	119.8
Utah	3-6	6-6	108.2	108.3	108.3	108.3
Arizona St.	6-3	7-5	107.6	106.4	107.3	107.1
Arizona	5-4	7-5	106.2	105.0	105.1	105.4
U C L A	4-5	6-6	104.1	103.3	103.5	103.6
Colorado	2-7	5-7	104.5	103.4	102.4	103.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	7-1	11-1	128.2	127.8	128.6	128.2
Missouri	4-4	7-5	109.6	107.9	108.9	108.8
S. Carolina	5-3	8-4	107.5	106.8	106.5	106.9
Kentucky	4-4	7-5	106.2	105.5	104.8	105.5
Florida	3-5	4-7	105.7	105.4	105.1	105.4
Vanderbilt	1-7	5-7	100.8	99.8	99.7	100.1
Tennessee	0-8	4-8	97.3	95.9	95.3	96.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	7-1	11-1	135.6	132.3	134.3	134.1
Auburn	7-1	10-2	131.3	128.9	131.7	130.6
L S U	6-2	9-3	119.1	116.7	119.6	118.5
Mississippi St.	4-4	8-4	112.4	112.4	112.0	112.3
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
Ole Miss	3-5	6-6	106.3	105.0	105.4	105.6
Arkansas	1-7	4-8	99.4	98.5	99.2	99.1
SEC Averages			111.9	110.6	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	6-1	9-2	99.1	99.2	98.9	99.1
Arkansas St.	6-1	7-3	95.2	96.3	96.4	96.0
Appalachian St.	6-1	7-4	94.8	93.6	94.8	94.4
N. Mexico St.	3-4	5-6	85.9	84.7	86.0	85.5
Georgia St.	5-2	6-4	83.1	82.9	82.9	83.0
UL-Lafayette	4-3	5-6	82.2	83.4	82.1	82.6
UL-Monroe	4-4	4-7	82.1	83.0	81.3	82.1
S. Alabama	3-4	4-7	81.0	83.0	81.2	81.7
Georgia Southern	2-5	2-9	80.9	82.0	80.4	81.1
Idaho	2-5	3-8	79.1	80.2	79.9	79.7
Coastal Carolina	1-6	2-9	72.7	74.1	73.4	73.4
Texas St.	1-7	2-10	70.3	72.5	69.4	70.7
Sun Belt Averages			83.9	84.6	83.9	84.1

Pirate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	113.2	112.0	112.6	112.6
2	SEC	111.9	110.6	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.6	109.8	109.8	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.6	109.2	109.3
5	BIG TEN	108.5	108.3	108.3	108.4
6	INDEP.	99.1	98.7	99.3	99.0
7	AAC	97.6	98.1	98.0	97.9
8	MWC	92.0	92.0	92.1	92.1
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	84.0	85.5	84.8	84.8
11	Sun Belt	83.9	84.6	83.9	84.1

For the second year in a row, the ACC finishes the regular season ranked number one.

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Arkansas St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	SMU	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Boise St.	Arizona St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Colorado St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	Georgia St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Houston	Northern Illinois
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Temple	Florida Int’l.
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	UAB	Ohio U
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	Wyoming
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	[Duke]	[Iowa St.]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	ARMY	[Marshall]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Troy
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Central Florida	San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	Texas Tech	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	Boston College	[Western Mich.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Kansas St.	Utah
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Florida St.	[UTSA]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	North Carolina St.	Purdue
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Utah St.]	Oregon
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Missouri
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	Navy	Virginia
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Northwestern	Stanford
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	TCU	Washington St.
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Virginia Tech	Kentucky
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Wake Forest	Arizona
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Iowa	[UCLA]
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	New Mexico St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Washington	Ohio St.
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Louisville	South Carolina
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	West Va.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	USC	Penn St.
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Miami (Fla.)	Alabama
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan	LSU
Peach	At-large	At-large	Auburn	Memphis
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Wisconsin	Oklahoma
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Clemson	Georgia
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Oklahoma	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Championship Week, and there are a flood of interesting games, but perhaps the more interesting aspect of the college game on this last Sunday of November is the coaching carousel.

UCLA is quite happy today with their new hire.  Texas A&M and Nebraska fans believe their status is about to improve with hires that can be considered knock out of the park hires.  Arkansas thinks it can find somebody that will move the needle.  Arizona State might look to the SEC to fill its vacancy, and then there is Tennessee.

The Vols aimed high for a former Tampa Bay Buc coach, dangling possibly $10 million, but instead, the fans believe they have lured in a carp–the wrong ex-Tampa Bay coach.

If rumors are true that the Volunteers have hired Greg Schiano as their next head coach, he of the .500 record at Rutgers when the State U of New Jersey was still a Big East school, and he of many negative intangibles, the Vol Navy may decide to scuttle the boats.

With Dan Mullen, Chris Petersen, Mike Leach, Dana Holgersen, Mike Gundy, Bobby Petrino, Matt Campbell, Jeff Brohm, and even Jim Bob Cooter available (among others), settling for a much maligned ex-head coach that comes with more baggage than Thurston Howell III and Lovie Howell brought with them to that three-hour tour.  The results in Knoxville are likely to be no better than the sailing of the S.S. Minnow.

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 7-11, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Akron	3.4	2.9	4.0
Buffalo	Bowling Green	6.0	7.5	7.6
Western Michigan	Kent St.	26.9	24.5	27.6
Ohio U	Toledo	-6.2	-5.0	-6.7
Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	-1.4	-0.4	-1.4
Northern Illinois	Ball St.	29.3	27.1	29.4
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	21.7	19.1	22.1
Pittsburgh	North Carolina	8.3	9.0	9.1
Cincinnati	Temple	-3.0	-1.6	-1.7
Stanford	Washington	-7.5	-6.1	-8.7
UNLV	BYU	1.1	3.0	1.8
Maryland	Michigan	-11.6	-10.3	-11.2
South Carolina	Florida	5.6	5.2	5.6
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-2.9	-4.7	-4.6
East Carolina	Tulane	-8.2	-7.2	-8.6
Boston College	North Carolina St.	-4.0	-3.5	-4.1
Central Florida	Connecticut	31.9	31.3	32.9
Syracuse	Wake Forest	6.1	5.9	5.5
Penn St.	Rutgers	33.0	31.3	34.0
Army	Duke	-3.3	-2.6	-1.4
Ohio St.	Michigan St.	27.2	23.8	25.9
Illinois	Indiana	-11.6	-10.6	-13.1
Coastal Carolina	Troy	-22.2	-21.2	-20.8
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-11.2	-10.1	-11.6
Air Force	Wyoming	-2.0	-0.3	-0.7
Nevada	San Jose St.	16.2	17.7	18.4
Baylor	Texas Tech	-2.2	-0.8	-1.1
Kansas St.	West Virginia	3.1	2.6	2.6
Oklahoma	TCU	6.6	7.2	6.7
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	-7.4	-6.6	-7.0
Louisville	Virginia	13.1	13.0	12.7
Miami (Fla.)	Notre Dame	3.1	2.6	1.6
Navy	SMU	4.9	5.4	4.6
Utah	Washington St.	-7.0	-3.8	-6.8
Northwestern	Purdue	10.4	9.3	10.2
Ole Miss	Louisiana-Lafayette	25.1	22.2	23.6
Minnesota	Nebraska	4.0	4.2	4.0
Mississippi St.	Alabama	-22.3	-17.9	-20.8
Louisiana Tech	Florida Atlantic	-5.0	-5.3	-5.9
Rice	Southern Miss.	-9.8	-9.5	-10.0
Colorado	USC	-9.7	-10.5	-11.7
Wisconsin	Iowa	10.0	6.9	8.8
Auburn	Georgia	1.0	-1.2	0.8
Missouri	Tennessee	5.4	5.1	6.5
Texas A&M	New Mexico	22.7	20.9	21.3
UCLA	Arizona St.	-1.0	-0.5	-1.5
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-1.7	-1.5	-1.8
South Alabama	Arkansas St.	-8.4	-7.0	-10.0
Texas St.	Georgia St.	-8.3	-6.0	-9.0
North Texas	UTEP	15.8	14.6	16.5
Texas	Kansas	37.7	34.6	39.5
Marshall	Western Kentucky	3.7	5.0	4.7
Florida Int’l.	Old Dominion	8.9	6.6	9.9
UTSA	UAB	15.0	14.0	14.0
Clemson	Florida St.	14.4	12.8	15.3
LSU	Arkansas	21.2	19.9	22.5
Arizona	Oregon St.	16.3	15.0	16.8
Colorado St.	Boise St.	-2.2	-1.7	-2.6
Hawaii	Fresno St.	-6.3	-4.5	-7.0

The PiRate Ratings

Retro Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Georgia
3	Notre Dame
4	Clemson
5	Wisconsin
6	Miami (Fla)
7	Oklahoma
8	Penn St.
9	Central Florida
10	Ohio St.
11	Washington
12	TCU
13	USC
14	Auburn
15	Oklahoma St.
16	Michigan St.
17	Virginia Tech
18	Michigan
19	Iowa
20	Mississippi St.
21	Memphis
22	Washington St.
23	Iowa St.
24	North Carolina St.
25	Boise St.
26	Stanford
27	LSU
28	Toledo
29	Northwestern
30	South Florida
31	Boston College
32	Arizona
33	South Carolina
34	Wake Forest
35	West Virginia
36	San Diego St.
37	Arizona St.
38	Georgia Tech
39	Houston
40	Texas
41	Texas A&M
42	SMU
43	Oregon
44	Navy
45	Louisville
46	Florida St.
47	Syracuse
48	Florida Atlantic
49	Utah
50	Virginia
51	Northern Illinois
52	Texas Tech
53	Kentucky
54	Army
55	Troy
56	California
57	Fresno St.
58	Purdue
59	Kansas St.
60	Pittsburgh
61	Nebraska
62	UCLA
63	Marshall
64	Maryland
65	Wyoming
66	Ohio
67	Arkansas St.
68	Florida
69	Colorado
70	Missouri
71	Duke
72	Minnesota
73	Indiana
74	Tennessee
75	Colorado St.
76	Ole Miss
77	Florida Int’l.
78	North Texas
79	Western Michigan
80	Akron
81	Rutgers
82	Arkansas
83	Vanderbilt
84	Utah St.
85	Temple
86	Central Michigan
87	UAB
88	Air Force
89	Eastern Michigan
90	Tulane
91	UTSA
92	Southern Miss.
93	Cincinnati
94	Appalachian St.
95	Georgia St.
96	Louisiana Tech
97	UNLV
98	Middle Tennessee
99	North Carolina
100	Western Kentucky
101	Buffalo
102	Tulsa
103	Miami (O)
104	New Mexico St.
105	Connecticut
106	Illinois
107	Baylor
108	New Mexico
109	UL-Monroe
110	East Carolina
111	Oregon St.
112	South Alabama
113	UL-Lafayette
114	Bowling Green
115	BYU
116	Idaho
117	Nevada
118	Old Dominion
119	Massachusetts
120	Kent St.
121	Hawaii
122	Kansas
123	Ball St.
124	Rice
125	Charlotte
126	Texas St.
127	Coastal Carolina
128	San Jose St.
129	UTEP
130	Georgia Southern

PiRate Predictive Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	138.2	134.2	136.9	136.4
2	Ohio St.	130.9	128.5	131.0	130.1
3	Georgia	128.4	128.5	128.7	128.5
4	Washington	128.9	126.1	129.3	128.1
5	Clemson	127.8	125.3	127.3	126.8
6	Penn St.	127.1	125.3	127.8	126.7
7	Auburn	126.4	124.3	126.5	125.7
8	Oklahoma	123.5	122.3	124.1	123.3
9	Oklahoma St.	123.1	122.2	123.7	123.0
10	Notre Dame	122.2	120.8	122.9	121.9
11	Miami	122.3	120.4	121.5	121.4
12	Virginia Tech	120.6	119.9	120.8	120.4
13	Wisconsin	121.6	118.8	120.1	120.2
14	T C U	119.9	118.1	120.4	119.4
15	U S C	119.2	118.4	119.1	118.9
16	Stanford	118.4	117.0	117.6	117.7
17	N. Carolina St.	116.9	116.1	116.9	116.6
18	L S U	117.0	114.9	117.6	116.5
19	Florida St.	116.4	115.5	114.9	115.6
20	Texas	114.6	114.9	115.1	114.9
21	Iowa	114.6	114.9	114.3	114.6
22	Michigan	114.3	114.3	113.4	114.0
23	Washington St.	114.8	112.5	114.4	113.9
24	Central Florida	112.9	114.3	114.0	113.8
25	Georgia Tech	114.7	112.2	113.2	113.4
26	Mississippi St.	112.9	113.3	113.1	113.1
27	Iowa State	112.6	112.6	113.7	113.0
28	Louisville	112.1	111.2	111.9	111.7
29	Syracuse	112.2	110.5	111.6	111.4
30	West Virginia	110.3	110.8	110.7	110.6
31	Kansas St.	110.4	110.4	110.3	110.4
32	Northwestern	110.4	109.3	110.3	110.0
33	Boston College	109.9	109.6	109.9	109.8
34	South Florida	109.8	108.7	110.4	109.6
35	Wake Forest	109.2	107.5	109.1	108.6
36	S. Carolina	109.1	108.1	108.3	108.5
37	Memphis	108.5	107.8	109.1	108.4
38	Arizona	108.8	107.2	107.9	108.0
39	Michigan St.	106.7	107.7	108.1	107.5
40	Boise St.	107.0	105.5	107.2	106.6
41	Pittsburgh	106.5	106.3	106.3	106.4
42	Texas A&M	107.1	105.1	106.3	106.2
43	Arizona St.	106.6	105.6	106.3	106.2
44	Florida	106.5	105.9	105.7	106.0
45	Kentucky	106.7	105.7	105.6	106.0
46	Duke	106.6	105.9	105.3	105.9
47	Oregon	106.5	104.7	105.6	105.6
48	Colorado	106.5	105.0	104.4	105.3
49	Missouri	106.0	104.1	105.3	105.1
50	Utah	104.8	105.7	104.6	105.0
51	Toledo	104.1	104.2	105.8	104.7
52	Ole Miss	105.0	103.5	103.6	104.0
53	Texas Tech	103.9	103.8	103.1	103.6
54	California	104.5	102.4	102.6	103.2
55	Indiana	103.0	103.1	103.4	103.2
56	Houston	103.1	102.7	103.3	103.0
57	Purdue	102.9	103.1	103.1	103.0
58	Tennessee	103.6	102.0	101.8	102.5
59	Minnesota	102.4	103.3	101.6	102.4
60	U C L A	102.6	102.1	101.8	102.2
61	San Diego St.	101.7	101.6	102.6	102.0
62	Vanderbilt	102.5	101.7	101.3	101.8
63	Virginia	102.0	101.2	102.1	101.8
64	Colo. State	101.8	100.8	101.6	101.4
65	Nebraska	101.3	102.1	100.6	101.3
66	Navy	100.4	101.2	100.5	100.7
67	N. Carolina	101.2	100.3	100.1	100.5
68	Army	100.3	100.3	100.9	100.5
69	Maryland	99.7	101.0	99.2	99.9
70	Baylor	98.7	100.1	99.0	99.3
71	SMU	98.4	98.8	98.9	98.7
72	Wyoming	99.3	98.0	98.3	98.5
73	Arkansas	98.8	98.0	98.0	98.3
74	Western Michigan	97.7	96.7	98.6	97.7
75	Eastern Michigan	97.2	96.9	97.8	97.3
76	Rutgers	97.1	97.0	96.8	97.0
77	Florida Atlantic	95.7	97.7	97.2	96.9
78	Arkansas St.	95.8	96.7	97.3	96.6
79	Ohio U	95.5	96.6	96.6	96.2
80	Troy	95.1	95.3	94.5	95.0
81	Oregon St.	95.5	95.2	94.1	94.9
82	Fresno St.	94.7	93.9	95.2	94.6
83	Air Force	94.2	94.7	94.6	94.5
84	Tulsa	94.6	94.4	94.1	94.4
85	Northern Illinois	94.1	94.0	95.0	94.3
86	Temple	94.0	94.4	94.1	94.2
87	Central Michigan	93.3	94.0	93.9	93.7
88	Tulane	92.9	93.3	93.1	93.1
89	Appalachian St.	93.3	92.1	93.1	92.8
90	Marshall	91.6	92.9	93.3	92.6
91	U T S A	91.0	93.1	92.0	92.0
92	Utah St.	92.3	91.5	91.9	91.9
93	W. Kentucky	90.9	90.9	91.7	91.2
94	Massachusetts	90.2	89.4	90.5	90.0
95	Cincinnati	88.5	90.2	89.9	89.5
96	Miami (O)	88.1	90.2	89.3	89.2
97	BYU	89.2	89.0	88.7	88.9
98	Illinois	88.9	90.0	87.8	88.9
99	Louisiana Tech	87.6	89.4	88.2	88.4
100	Akron	87.3	89.7	87.8	88.3
101	Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.9	88.8	88.2
102	U N L V	87.3	88.9	87.5	87.9
103	Nevada	86.2	88.0	87.5	87.2
104	New Mexico	86.9	86.7	87.5	87.0
105	N. Mexico St.	87.4	85.8	87.7	87.0
106	Buffalo	85.4	87.7	87.4	86.8
107	Middle Tennessee	86.1	87.3	86.9	86.8
108	Hawaii	84.9	85.9	84.7	85.2
109	S. Alabama	84.4	86.7	84.3	85.1
110	Southern Miss.	84.2	85.3	84.7	84.7
111	Connecticut	84.0	86.0	84.1	84.7
112	N. Texas	83.9	85.5	84.6	84.7
113	Georgia St.	84.1	83.9	84.1	84.1
114	UL-Lafayette	82.4	83.8	82.5	82.9
115	Old Dominion	81.8	84.4	81.9	82.7
116	East Carolina	82.2	83.7	82.0	82.6
117	Bowling Green	81.9	82.8	82.3	82.3
118	UL-Monroe	82.3	83.1	81.5	82.3
119	Idaho	80.9	82.0	81.7	81.5
120	UAB	79.0	82.0	81.0	80.7
121	Kansas	79.9	83.3	78.6	80.6
122	Georgia Southern	74.6	76.0	74.0	74.9
123	Kent St.	73.7	75.3	74.0	74.3
124	Texas St.	73.3	75.4	72.6	73.8
125	Charlotte	72.4	74.7	72.7	73.3
126	San Jose St.	73.0	73.3	72.1	72.8
127	Rice	71.9	73.3	72.2	72.5
128	U T E P	71.0	73.9	71.1	72.0
129	Coastal Carolina	70.8	72.2	71.7	71.6
130	Ball St.	67.8	69.8	68.6	68.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	5-0	8-0	112.9	114.3	114.0	113.8
South Florida	5-1	8-1	109.8	108.7	110.4	109.6
Temple	2-3	4-5	94.0	94.4	94.1	94.2
Cincinnati	1-4	3-6	88.5	90.2	89.9	89.5
Connecticut	2-4	3-6	84.0	86.0	84.1	84.7
East Carolina	1-4	2-7	82.2	83.7	82.0	82.6
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	5-1	8-1	108.5	107.8	109.1	108.4
Houston	4-2	6-3	103.1	102.7	103.3	103.0
Navy	3-3	5-3	100.4	101.2	100.5	100.7
SMU	3-2	6-3	98.4	98.8	98.9	98.7
Tulsa	1-5	2-8	94.6	94.4	94.1	94.4
Tulane	1-4	3-6	92.9	93.3	93.1	93.1
AAC Averages			97.4	97.9	97.8	97.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	6-1	8-1	127.8	125.3	127.3	126.8
N. Carolina St.	4-1	6-3	116.9	116.1	116.9	116.6
Florida St.	3-4	3-5	116.4	115.5	114.9	115.6
Louisville	2-4	5-4	112.1	111.2	111.9	111.7
Syracuse	2-3	4-5	112.2	110.5	111.6	111.4
Boston College	3-3	5-4	109.9	109.6	109.9	109.8
Wake Forest	2-3	5-4	109.2	107.5	109.1	108.6
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	6-0	8-0	122.3	120.4	121.5	121.4
Virginia Tech	3-2	7-2	120.6	119.9	120.8	120.4
Georgia Tech	3-3	4-4	114.7	112.2	113.2	113.4
Pittsburgh	2-3	4-5	106.5	106.3	106.3	106.4
Duke	1-5	4-5	106.6	105.9	105.3	105.9
Virginia	3-2	6-3	102.0	101.2	102.1	101.8
N. Carolina	0-6	1-8	101.2	100.3	100.1	100.5
ACC Averages			112.8	111.6	112.2	112.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	5-1	8-1	123.5	122.3	124.1	123.3
Oklahoma St.	4-2	7-2	123.1	122.2	123.7	123.0
T C U	5-1	8-1	119.9	118.1	120.4	119.4
Texas	3-3	4-5	114.6	114.9	115.1	114.9
Iowa State	4-2	5-4	112.6	112.6	113.7	113.0
West Virginia	4-2	6-3	110.3	110.8	110.7	110.6
Kansas St.	3-3	5-4	110.4	110.4	110.3	110.4
Texas Tech	1-5	4-5	103.9	103.8	103.1	103.6
Baylor	1-5	1-8	98.7	100.1	99.0	99.3
Kansas	0-6	1-8	79.9	83.3	78.6	80.6
Big 12 Averages			109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	5-1	7-2	130.9	128.5	131.0	130.1
Penn St.	4-2	7-2	127.1	125.3	127.8	126.7
Michigan	4-2	7-2	114.3	114.3	113.4	114.0
Michigan St.	5-1	7-2	106.7	107.7	108.1	107.5
Indiana	0-6	3-6	103.0	103.1	103.4	103.2
Maryland	2-4	4-5	99.7	101.0	99.2	99.9
Rutgers	3-3	4-5	97.1	97.0	96.8	97.0
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	6-0	9-0	121.6	118.8	120.1	120.2
Iowa	3-3	6-3	114.6	114.9	114.3	114.6
Northwestern	4-2	6-3	110.4	109.3	110.3	110.0
Purdue	2-4	4-5	102.9	103.1	103.1	103.0
Minnesota	1-5	4-5	102.4	103.3	101.6	102.4
Nebraska	3-3	4-5	101.3	102.1	100.6	101.3
Illinois	0-6	2-7	88.9	90.0	87.8	88.9
Big Ten Averages			108.7	108.4	108.4	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	5-0	6-3	95.7	97.7	97.2	96.9
Marshall	3-2	6-3	91.6	92.9	93.3	92.6
W. Kentucky	3-2	5-4	90.9	90.9	91.7	91.2
Florida Int’l.	4-1	6-2	87.7	87.9	88.8	88.2
Middle Tennessee	2-3	4-5	86.1	87.3	86.9	86.8
Old Dominion	1-4	3-6	81.8	84.4	81.9	82.7
Charlotte	1-4	1-8	72.4	74.7	72.7	73.3
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	2-3	5-3	91.0	93.1	92.0	92.0
Louisiana Tech	2-3	4-5	87.6	89.4	88.2	88.4
Southern Miss.	3-2	5-4	84.2	85.3	84.7	84.7
N. Texas	5-1	6-3	83.9	85.5	84.6	84.7
UAB	4-2	6-3	79.0	82.0	81.0	80.7
Rice	1-4	1-8	71.9	73.3	72.2	72.5
U T E P	0-5	0-9	71.0	73.9	71.1	72.0
CUSA Averages			83.9	85.6	84.7	84.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		8-1	122.2	120.8	122.9	121.9
Army		7-2	100.3	100.3	100.9	100.5
Massachusetts		2-7	90.2	89.4	90.5	90.0
BYU		2-8	89.2	89.0	88.7	88.9
Indep. Averages			100.5	99.9	100.7	100.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	4-1	7-2	95.5	96.6	96.6	96.2
Miami (O)	2-3	3-6	88.1	90.2	89.3	89.2
Akron	4-1	5-4	87.3	89.7	87.8	88.3
Buffalo	1-4	3-6	85.4	87.7	87.4	86.8
Bowling Green	2-3	2-7	81.9	82.8	82.3	82.3
Kent St.	1-4	2-7	73.7	75.3	74.0	74.3
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	5-0	8-1	104.1	104.2	105.8	104.7
Western Michigan	3-2	5-4	97.7	96.7	98.6	97.7
Eastern Michigan	1-4	3-6	97.2	96.9	97.8	97.3
Northern Illinois	4-1	6-3	94.1	94.0	95.0	94.3
Central Michigan	3-2	5-4	93.3	94.0	93.9	93.7
Ball St.	0-5	2-7	67.8	69.8	68.6	68.7
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	5-0	7-2	107.0	105.5	107.2	106.6
Colo. State	4-2	6-4	101.8	100.8	101.6	101.4
Wyoming	4-1	6-3	99.3	98.0	98.3	98.5
Air Force	3-2	4-5	94.2	94.7	94.6	94.5
Utah St.	3-3	5-5	92.3	91.5	91.9	91.9
New Mexico	1-5	3-6	86.9	86.7	87.5	87.0
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	4-2	8-2	101.7	101.6	102.6	102.0
Fresno St.	4-1	6-3	94.7	93.9	95.2	94.6
U N L V	3-3	4-5	87.3	88.9	87.5	87.9
Nevada	1-4	1-8	86.2	88.0	87.5	87.2
Hawaii	1-5	3-6	84.9	85.9	84.7	85.2
San Jose St.	0-5	1-9	73.0	73.3	72.1	72.8
MWC Averages			92.4	92.4	92.6	92.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	5-1	8-1	128.9	126.1	129.3	128.1
Stanford	5-2	6-3	118.4	117.0	117.6	117.7
Washington St.	4-2	7-2	114.8	112.5	114.4	113.9
Oregon	2-5	5-5	106.5	104.7	105.6	105.6
California	2-5	5-5	104.5	102.4	102.6	103.2
Oregon St.	0-6	1-8	95.5	95.2	94.1	94.9
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	6-1	8-2	119.2	118.4	119.1	118.9
Arizona	4-2	6-3	108.8	107.2	107.9	108.0
Arizona St.	4-2	5-4	106.6	105.6	106.3	106.2
Colorado	2-5	5-5	106.5	105.0	104.4	105.3
Utah	2-4	5-4	104.8	105.7	104.6	105.0
U C L A	2-4	4-5	102.6	102.1	101.8	102.2
Pac-12 Averages			109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	6-0	9-0	128.4	128.5	128.7	128.5
S. Carolina	4-3	6-3	109.1	108.1	108.3	108.5
Florida	3-4	3-5	106.5	105.9	105.7	106.0
Kentucky	3-3	6-3	106.7	105.7	105.6	106.0
Missouri	1-4	4-5	106.0	104.1	105.3	105.1
Tennessee	0-5	4-5	103.6	102.0	101.8	102.5
Vanderbilt	0-5	4-5	102.5	101.7	101.3	101.8
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	6-0	9-0	138.2	134.2	136.9	136.4
Auburn	5-1	7-2	126.4	124.3	126.5	125.7
L S U	3-2	6-3	117.0	114.9	117.6	116.5
Mississippi St.	3-2	7-2	112.9	113.3	113.1	113.1
Texas A&M	3-3	5-4	107.1	105.1	106.3	106.2
Ole Miss	2-4	4-5	105.0	103.5	103.6	104.0
Arkansas	1-4	4-5	98.8	98.0	98.0	98.3
SEC Averages			112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Arkansas St.	4-0	5-2	95.8	96.7	97.3	96.6
Troy	4-1	7-2	95.1	95.3	94.5	95.0
Appalachian St.	4-1	5-4	93.3	92.1	93.1	92.8
N. Mexico St.	2-3	4-5	87.4	85.8	87.7	87.0
S. Alabama	2-3	3-6	84.4	86.7	84.3	85.1
Georgia St.	4-1	5-3	84.1	83.9	84.1	84.1
UL-Lafayette	3-2	4-4	82.4	83.8	82.5	82.9
UL-Monroe	4-3	4-5	82.3	83.1	81.5	82.3
Idaho	2-3	3-6	80.9	82.0	81.7	81.5
Georgia Southern	0-4	0-8	74.6	76.0	74.0	74.9
Texas St.	1-4	2-7	73.3	75.4	72.6	73.8
Coastal Carolina	0-5	1-8	70.8	72.2	71.7	71.6
Sun Belt Averages			83.7	84.4	83.7	84.0

Conference Ratings

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	112.8	111.6	112.2	112.2
2	SEC	112.0	110.7	111.3	111.3
3	BIG 12	109.7	109.8	109.9	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
5	BIG TEN	108.7	108.4	108.4	108.5
6	INDEP.	100.5	99.9	100.7	100.4
7	AAC	97.4	97.9	97.8	97.7
8	MWC	92.4	92.4	92.6	92.5
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	83.9	85.6	84.7	84.8
11	Sun Belt	83.7	84.4	83.7	84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Florida Int’l.	UL-Lafayette
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	San Diego St.	Utah
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Wyoming
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Central Fla.	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	MAC	SMU	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Georgia St.]	Southern Miss.
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	Florida Atlantic	Toledo
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Central Mich.	Utah St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	Cincinnati	[UAB]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	Army	[California]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Akron	Appalachian St.
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Houston	Boise St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	[UNLV]	UTSA
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	[Western Ky.]	[Western Mich.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Kansas St.	Stanford
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Duke	[Middle Tennessee]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	Boston College	Iowa
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Fresno St.]	Washington St.
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Missouri
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	Navy	[Miami (O)]
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Michigan	Arizona St.
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	Oklahoma St.	Arizona
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	NC State	Auburn
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Wake Forest	Oregon
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Northwestern	Kentucky
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Colorado St.	New Mexico St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Wisconsin	Washington
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Louisville	LSU
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	West Virginia	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	USC	TCU
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Miami (Fla)	Penn St.
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Ohio St.	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Clemson	Memphis
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Georgia	Notre Dame
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Alabama	Oklahoma
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

A Great Weekend Ahead

After looking at the schedule for this week, the folks at the sports networks could call this one, “moving week.” There are numerous games where teams in contention for a playoff spot are facing tough, sometimes trap games. There are a host of games where the winner will stay in bowl contention, while fans of the loser can start thinking about basketball season, which begins this Friday.

Then, there is another interesting phenomenon. There are a host of teams that have six losses and must win out to get to 6-6 and get into a bowl. Most will lose again to fall out of the bowl picture, but until they get to seven losses, these teams will bring their A-games to the field. What that means is that a 3-6 team that is a 15-point underdog to a 6-3 team that is already bowl eligible but has no chance to win a division or conference might be ready to play its best game of the year and maybe pull off the upset. Even if they lose to go to 3-7, they might make it a close game and lose by single digits.

Here’s a look at the interesting games.
Game Involving Playoff Contenders Against Each Other
Notre Dame at Miami (Fla.)
The winner of this game takes a major step forward toward earning one of the magic four spots in the playoffs. The Irish have a home game with Notre Dame and a road game against Stanford remaining, while the Hurricanes have a home game with Virginia, and a road game against Pittsburgh (as well as needing to win the ACC Championship Game).

Games Important In Deciding Conference or Division Winner
Akron at Miami (O) & Toledo at Ohio U

Akron and Ohio are currently tied for the MAC East lead at 4-1. Miami (O) has 6 losses and must win out to become bowl eligible, while Toledo is still in contention for a New Year’s 6 Bowl if the Rockets win out and get help from other teams beating UCF, USF, and Memphis.

Washington at Stanford

Washington currently leads Stanford by a half game and Washington St. by a full game in the Pac-12 North.

Michigan St. at Ohio St.

Both teams are 5-1 in the Big Ten East and most likely out of playoff contention. The winner hasn’t wrapped up the division yet, as Michigan and Penn State are both one game back at 4-2.

TCU at Oklahoma
Both teams are 5-1 and tied for first in the Big 12. The winner almost assuredly makes the Big 12 Championship Game, while the loser will have to fight it out with Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. for the second spot.

Iowa St. at Oklahoma St.
Both teams are 4-2, and the winner stays in contention for second place, which in this league gets you into the Championship Game (WVU is also 4-2).

Potential Trap Games For Playoff Contenders
Alabama at Mississippi St.
Georgia at Auburn
The nation’s top two teams have trap games this week. Alabama had a tough home game with LSU and lost several key defensive players to injury. Plus, in the past five years, the teams that have upset the Crimson Tide have had top notch dual threat quarterbacks. Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat quarterback.

Georgia beat South Carolina, and the Bulldogs were in control of the game with not much doubt of losing, but Coach Kirby Smart did not get the opportunity to empty his bench and rest his regulars. Now, the Bulldogs play at Auburn, where the Tigers are still in contention in the SEC West, but only if they beat Georgia.

Must Win Out To Stay In Bowl Contention
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan has six losses and must win out to become bowl eligible. The Eagles have winnable games with Miami (O) and Bowling Green remaining on their schedule, a CMU (5-4) loss could put the Chippewas in Jeopardy of getting to six wins.

Michigan at Maryland
Maryland is now 4-5 after losing to Rutgers, and this looks like loss number six. With remaining games against Michigan State in East Lansing and Penn State at home, the Terrapins have little chance of going 2-1 and getting to 6-6, but they aren’t eliminated yet. Michigan can still win the East Division, but they Wolverines must win out, including games against Wisconsin and Ohio St.

Florida at South Carolina
Florida has just five losses, but the Gators only play 11 games due to the hurricane earlier this year. Interim coach Randy Shannon fared little better than Jim McElwain, losing big to Missouri, so the chances of Florida winning out against South Carolina, UAB, and Florida St. are close to nil. Even the UAB game might be tough to win.

Indiana at Illinois
Indiana had a lot of near misses this year. The Hoosiers have some talented players, but their depth is not up to par with the teams ahead in the Big Ten East. Indiana sits at 3-6 and must win out against Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue. It’s possible, but the way the Boilermakers are playing, we believe Purdue will get revenge for their near miss last year.

Arkansas St. at South Alabama
South Alabama is 3-6 needs a big upset over 4-0/5-2 Arkansas St. and then must win on the road against winless Georgia Southern and a New Mexico St. team that most likely would also be playing for bowl contention. Coach Joey Jones has taken the Jaguars to multiple bowls in the past, but this year is looking bleak.

Florida St. at Clemson
Florida St. is in the same boat as rival Florida. The Seminoles have had their season turned upside down, losing a game to the hurricane as well as a quarterback very early in the season. The Seminoles must pull the playoff-destroying upset of Clemson to have a chance to make the season-ender with Florida meaningful. We will give FSU the win over Delaware St. on November 18.
Late Note–FSU may be able to reschedule their cancelled game with Louisiana-Monroe at the end of the regular season, so the Seminoles could still possibly get to 6-6 with wins over Delaware St., Florida, and UL-Monroe.

Probable Bowl Eliminator Games
Temple at Cincinnati
Temple is 4-5, while Cincinnati is 3-6. Obviously, the Bearcats must win out (East Carolina and UConn after TU). Temple was not really in contention for a bowl until the Owls thumped Navy. With Central Florida to follow this game, if TU loses to fall to 4-6, you can almost completely toss the Owls out of the bowl picture. But if TU wins this game to square their record at 5-5, then the Owls would have a chance to finish 6-6 by defeating Tulsa.

Wake Forest at Syracuse
Wake Forest is 5-4 and Syracuse is 4-5. The loser of this game technically can still make a bowl, but scheduling will make it very difficult. If the Demon Deacons win this game, they are bowl eligible, while a Syracuse win would mean the Orangemen would still have to beat either Louisville or Boston College.

Nebraska at Minnesota
Truth be told, we do not believe the winner of this game will win another game this year, so the 5-5 victor will most likely fall to 5-7. Nebraska must still play Penn St. and Iowa, while Minnesota has Northwestern and Wisconsin remaining.

Tennessee at Missouri
These two 4-5 teams are going in opposite directions. Missouri was expected to go 0-8 in the conference, while Tennessee was expected to compete for a division flag this year. Instead, the Tigers are two wins away from sneaking into a bowl with three winnable games left on their schedule. We feel Mizzou will win at least two if not all three and earn a bowl trip, while Tennessee will have a hard time getting their fifth win.

Can Get Into Bowl Contention With Win
BYU at UNLV
UNLV was not in the bowl picture until just two weeks ago, but now the Rebels have won consecutive games to improve to 4-5. The Rebels absolutely must win this game to get to 5-5 before finishing with road games against New Mexico and Nevada. At 5-5, they should be able to pick up one more win.

In Jeopardy of Missing Bowl With Loss
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is another team relegated to playing 11 games due to the hurricane. At 4-4, the Yellow Jackets need to finish 2-1 and will play at Duke before hosting Georgia. It’s not likely to happen for Paul Johnson this year.

Texas Tech at Baylor
Texas Tech has fallen to 4-5 and must finish 2-1 with closing games with TCU and Texas. Baylor finally won a game last week against lowly Kansas, but sometimes when a team opens the year with many losses before winning their first game, the next game turns out to be the best one they play. TTU needs to be prepared for an ambush in Waco this week. Coach Kliff Kingsbury’s seat is simmering hot, and a loss in this game most likely sends him into unemployment. Even a win in this one might just delay the firing by a few weeks.

USC at Colorado
Colorado is 5-5 with a road game at Utah to follow this one. The Buffalos may have a better chance of upsetting the Trojans in Boulder than winning in SLC.

Arizona St. at UCLA
UCLA is 4-5 and has the combination of key injuries and team dissension. Coach Jim Mora, Jr. is more than likely not going to return as coach, especially with Chip Kelly available and with a supposed desire to coach on the West Coast. The Bruins have remaining games with USC and Cal, and it doesn’t look promising that the sons of Westwood will win two of these three.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 4-5 and must win two of three with games against Missouri and Tennessee following this one. The Missouri game now appears to be quite difficult, while Kentucky is playing for one of the top second tier bowls like the Outback and Taxslayer. Vanderbilt’s defense may have a hard time holding the Wildcats under 30 points and the Tigers under 40, so it could be 5-7 or 4-8 for the Commodores, unless they pull off the upset in this one.

Arkansas at LSU
Arkansas is in the same boat with Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri (all 4-5). The Razorbacks narrowly defeated one of the nation’s weakest FBS team in Coastal Carolina, so expecting Arky to win two of their final three (Mississippi St. & Missouri) is quite a stretch. The chance that Coach Bret Bielema will return in Fayetteville is a much larger stretch.

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 2-6, 2017

The PiRate Captain had to send up the white flag after his lasses staged a successful mutiny two weeks ago. Much to his chagrin and ego, the ladies proceeded to come up with back-to-back weeks of pillaging of the Vegas vessels.

Last week, they brought in enough booty to send the SS Fortune into the black for the season. They proceeded to return a profit on the investment of a whopping 147%, missing out on going a perfect 4 for 4 by one play in overtime in the Appy State-U Mass game.  For the season, the PiRate Account is now in the black with a very modest 1% ROI.

The Captain will note that in the previous two seasons, the period from the last of October to the first of December followed the same MO–the selection results went from red numbers to black numbers and clinched a profit for the overall seasons.
Now, the lasses are lobbying to change the name of the PiRate ship to Queen Anne’s Revenge. The Captain is worried that five swollen heads on the lovely ladies could lead to a return of some booty to the Nevada books, but the ladies are overly confident that they have zeroed in using their superior female intuition.

Once again, the ladies picked the teams they thought had the best chance of winning outright but at the same time went off as small favorites, total tossups, or even slight underdogs. The Captain merely served as their accountant, putting together the best possible parlays as far as favorable odds go, thanks to his knowing which of the 2 dozen reputable books had the best overall odds.

 
The PiRate lasses selected four money line parlays, each going off at better than +120 odds, which is the unwritten rule for this weekly feature. Actually, there are just three parlays this week, as the fourth selection is a single game where the ladies believe the underdog should be favored by at least a touchdown.

Enjoy the picks, but remember, neither the ladies nor the Captain ever wager real money on the outcomes of these games. The goal here is to have fun with math.

#1 @ +155
Must Win	Must Lose
North Texas	Louisiana Tech

#2 @ +144
Must Win	Must Lose
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern
Kentucky	Ole Miss

#3 @ +167
Must Win	Must Lose
Navy	Temple
Northwestern	Nebraska

#4 @ +204
Must Win	Must Lose
Missouri	Florida
UAB	Rice
Tulane	Cincinnati

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 31-November 4, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kent St.	Bowling Green	0.4	1.0	0.1
Ohio U	Miami (O)	8.3	7.5	8.1
Western Michigan	Central Michigan	10.7	8.6	11.4
Toledo	Northern Illinois	12.7	12.9	13.5
Eastern Michigan	Ball St.	29.2	26.7	28.6
Temple	Navy	-6.4	-6.7	-6.7
Troy	Idaho	18.6	17.5	17.5
Florida Atlantic	Marshall	7.1	7.8	6.9
Tulsa	Memphis	-7.0	-6.4	-7.9
Utah	UCLA	-0.9	1.1	-0.7
Kansas	Baylor	-12.3	-10.8	-13.3
North Carolina St.	Clemson	-7.7	-5.8	-7.1
Purdue	Illinois	16.3	15.4	17.6
Kentucky	Ole Miss	6.3	6.4	7.0
Florida St.	Syracuse	7.6	8.4	6.8
Nebraska	Northwestern	-6.4	-4.5	-7.3
Iowa	Ohio St.	-22.9	-20.2	-23.2
West Virginia	Iowa St.	-0.1	0.6	-1.2
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia Tech	1.1	-0.1	0.1
Rutgers	Maryland	-3.1	-4.5	-3.2
Virginia	Georgia Tech	-13.3	-11.4	-11.9
Boise St.	Nevada	23.4	19.7	22.0
Arizona St.	Colorado	0.7	1.7	2.5
Texas St.	New Mexico St.	-11.9	-8.1	-12.8
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	-7.4	-5.6	-8.0
Louisiana-Monroe	Appalachian St.	-11.8	-9.2	-12.5
Old Dominion	Charlotte	12.5	12.8	12.3
Tennessee	Southern Miss.	23.3	20.4	21.0
Texas A&M	Auburn	-16.0	-15.9	-16.8
Air Force	Army	1.4	1.6	1.3
Indiana	Wisconsin	-13.0	-10.0	-11.1
Tulane	Cincinnati	9.7	7.9	8.8
Georgia	South Carolina	22.7	23.8	24.0
Mississippi St.	Massachusetts	28.5	29.5	28.6
SMU	Central Florida	-11.9	-12.9	-13.0
Vanderbilt	Western Kentucky	13.4	12.6	11.2
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	-3.2	-3.2	-4.0
TCU	Texas	5.3	3.1	5.0
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	8.5	8.4	8.7
Washington	Oregon	22.6	21.7	24.0
Arkansas	Coastal Carolina	35.4	33.4	33.8
Michigan	Minnesota	12.1	11.4	11.8
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	4.7	4.6	5.1
Notre Dame	Wake Forest	16.5	16.4	17.6
UAB	Rice	3.2	5.4	4.9
South Alabama	Louisiana-Lafayette	7.7	8.5	7.6
New Mexico	Utah St.	-1.6	-1.1	-0.7
Fresno St.	BYU	8.8	7.9	9.9
UNLV	Hawaii	5.7	6.3	6.1
Wyoming	Colorado St.	-0.9	-1.2	-1.9
Florida Int’l.	UTSA	-3.4	-5.2	-3.7
Middle Tennessee	UTEP	15.3	13.7	15.7
Missouri	Florida	-6.5	-7.8	-6.4
Alabama	LSU	25.8	23.5	24.1
Michigan St.	Penn St.	-22.5	-18.9	-22.2
San Jose St.	San Diego St.	-19.3	-19.3	-20.7
California	Oregon St.	11.8	10.0	11.3
Washington St.	Stanford	-1.4	-2.3	-1.4
USC	Arizona	12.9	13.8	13.6
Connecticut	South Florida	-23.2	-19.9	-24.1
Houston	East Carolina	23.7	21.7	24.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

“Retro”

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Georgia
3	Notre Dame
4	Clemson
5	Ohio St.
6	Penn St.
7	Wisconsin
8	Central Florida
9	Miami (Fla)
10	Oklahoma St.
11	Washington
12	Oklahoma
13	TCU
14	Virginia Tech
15	USC
16	Iowa St.
17	Mississippi St.
18	Auburn
19	Michigan
20	Stanford
21	North Carolina St.
22	Memphis
23	Michigan St.
24	LSU
25	Washington St.
26	Boise St.
27	Iowa
28	Toledo
29	Arizona
30	South Florida
31	Northwestern
32	South Carolina
33	Georgia Tech
34	Wake Forest
35	Navy
36	Boston College
37	San Diego St.
38	West Virginia
39	Texas A&M
40	Texas
41	Oregon
42	Houston
43	Kentucky
44	UCLA
45	Arizona St.
46	SMU
47	Syracuse
48	Texas Tech
49	Louisville
50	Northern Illinois
51	Maryland
52	Troy
53	Florida
54	Nebraska
55	Florida Atlantic
56	Florida St.
57	Fresno St.
58	Pittsburgh
59	Colorado
60	Marshall
61	California
62	Western Michigan
63	Purdue
64	Colorado St.
65	Army
66	Indiana
67	Utah
68	Kansas St.
69	Minnesota
70	Arkansas St.
71	Wyoming
72	Air Force
73	Virginia
74	Ohio
75	Tennessee
76	Arkansas
77	Duke
78	Akron
79	North Texas
80	Florida Int’l.
81	Missouri
82	Ole Miss
83	Vanderbilt
84	UTSA
85	Appalachian St.
86	Tulane
87	Rutgers
88	Louisiana Tech
89	Southern Miss.
90	Utah St.
91	UAB
92	Georgia St.
93	Central Michigan
94	Eastern Michigan
95	Western Kentucky
96	Cincinnati
97	Tulsa
98	Temple
99	UNLV
100	North Carolina
101	Buffalo
102	Miami (O)
103	Middle Tennessee
104	New Mexico
105	New Mexico St.
106	Illinois
107	South Alabama
108	Connecticut
109	Oregon St.
110	East Carolina
111	Nevada
112	BYU
113	Baylor
114	Hawaii
115	UL-Monroe
116	Idaho
117	Massachusetts
118	UL-Lafayette
119	Old Dominion
120	Kent St.
121	Bowling Green
122	Kansas
123	Ball St.
124	Rice
125	Charlotte
126	Texas St.
127	Coastal Carolina
128	San Jose St.
129	UTEP
130	Georgia Southern

Predictive

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	139.0	134.8	137.8	137.2
2	Ohio St.	135.7	133.3	135.8	134.9
3	Penn St.	129.8	127.6	130.7	129.4
4	Georgia	128.6	128.7	129.0	128.8
5	Washington	127.4	124.7	127.8	126.6
6	Clemson	127.6	125.0	127.1	126.6
7	Auburn	126.4	124.3	126.5	125.7
8	Oklahoma St.	124.4	123.3	125.2	124.3
9	Notre Dame	122.4	120.9	123.3	122.2
10	Virginia Tech	122.3	121.6	122.5	122.1
11	Oklahoma	121.7	120.7	122.1	121.5
12	Miami	120.4	118.5	119.6	119.5
13	Wisconsin	120.3	117.4	118.8	118.9
14	U S C	118.7	117.9	118.6	118.4
15	T C U	118.7	116.8	119.0	118.1
16	Stanford	118.8	117.4	118.2	118.1
17	N. Carolina St.	116.9	116.2	116.9	116.7
18	Texas	115.8	116.2	116.5	116.2
19	Florida St.	116.6	115.7	115.1	115.8
20	L S U	116.2	114.3	116.7	115.7
21	Georgia Tech	116.4	114.0	115.2	115.2
22	Mississippi St.	114.3	114.6	114.6	114.5
23	Central Florida	113.1	114.5	114.4	114.0
24	Washington St.	114.4	112.1	113.8	113.4
25	Iowa State	112.9	112.8	114.2	113.3
26	Michigan	112.8	112.9	111.8	112.5
27	Louisville	111.8	110.9	111.6	111.4
28	Syracuse	112.0	110.3	111.4	111.2
29	Florida	111.0	110.4	110.2	110.5
30	Kansas St.	110.4	110.4	110.3	110.4
31	Northwestern	110.6	109.4	110.6	110.2
32	West Virginia	109.8	110.4	110.0	110.1
33	South Florida	110.0	108.8	110.8	109.9
34	Iowa	109.8	110.1	109.5	109.8
35	Boston College	109.6	109.3	109.6	109.5
36	Wake Forest	109.0	107.4	108.7	108.3
37	Arizona	108.8	107.2	107.9	108.0
38	S. Carolina	108.4	107.4	107.5	107.8
39	Oregon	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
40	Kentucky	107.5	106.3	106.6	106.8
41	Texas A&M	107.4	105.4	106.6	106.5
42	Memphis	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.4
43	Colorado	107.7	106.0	105.6	106.4
44	Boise St.	106.8	105.1	106.8	106.2
45	Pittsburgh	106.2	106.0	106.0	106.1
46	Duke	106.3	105.6	105.0	105.6
47	U C L A	106.0	105.2	105.4	105.5
48	Michigan St.	104.3	105.7	105.5	105.2
49	Arizona St.	105.4	104.6	105.1	105.0
50	Toledo	104.1	104.2	105.8	104.7
51	Indiana	104.3	104.5	104.7	104.5
52	Texas Tech	104.2	104.1	103.4	103.9
53	Minnesota	103.7	104.5	103.0	103.7
54	Ole Miss	104.2	102.9	102.6	103.2
55	California	104.4	102.3	102.5	103.1
56	Tennessee	104.2	102.5	102.4	103.0
57	Houston	103.0	102.5	103.2	102.9
58	Purdue	102.7	102.9	102.9	102.8
59	Utah	102.1	103.3	101.7	102.4
60	Navy	101.7	102.4	101.9	102.0
61	Vanderbilt	102.4	101.6	101.1	101.7
62	Colo. State	102.0	101.0	101.9	101.6
63	Maryland	101.1	102.4	100.8	101.4
64	Arkansas	101.8	101.0	101.0	101.3
65	Nebraska	101.1	102.0	100.3	101.1
66	Missouri	101.5	99.6	100.8	100.6
67	N. Carolina	100.9	100.0	99.8	100.2
68	Virginia	100.1	99.6	100.3	100.0
69	Western Michigan	99.6	98.4	100.7	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.0	99.1	99.7	99.3
71	SMU	98.2	98.6	98.5	98.4
72	Wyoming	99.1	97.8	98.0	98.3
73	Army	98.0	98.1	98.5	98.2
74	Baylor	97.2	98.9	97.2	97.8
75	Florida Atlantic	95.7	97.7	97.2	96.9
76	Air Force	96.3	96.7	96.8	96.6
77	Tulsa	96.4	96.5	96.0	96.3
78	Arkansas St.	95.5	96.4	97.0	96.3
79	Eastern Michigan	96.0	95.6	96.4	96.0
80	Ohio U	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
81	Troy	95.8	95.9	95.3	95.7
82	Rutgers	95.5	95.4	95.0	95.3
83	Oregon St.	95.6	95.3	94.2	95.0
84	Fresno St.	94.8	93.9	95.4	94.7
85	Appalachian St.	95.2	93.7	95.1	94.7
86	Tulane	94.1	94.2	94.4	94.2
87	Northern Illinois	93.9	93.8	94.8	94.1
88	U T S A	92.3	94.4	93.5	93.4
89	Temple	92.7	93.2	92.7	92.9
90	Marshall	91.6	92.9	93.3	92.6
91	Central Michigan	91.4	92.3	91.8	91.8
92	Utah St.	92.1	91.3	91.7	91.7
93	W. Kentucky	91.0	91.0	91.9	91.3
94	Miami (O)	88.6	90.7	89.9	89.7
95	Illinois	89.4	90.5	88.3	89.4
96	Louisiana Tech	88.5	90.2	89.3	89.4
97	BYU	89.1	89.0	88.5	88.8
98	Massachusetts	88.8	88.1	89.0	88.6
99	Cincinnati	87.3	89.3	88.6	88.4
100	Akron	87.0	89.4	87.5	88.0
101	U N L V	87.2	88.8	87.4	87.8
102	Nevada	86.4	88.4	87.9	87.5
103	New Mexico	87.4	87.2	88.0	87.5
104	N. Mexico St.	87.5	85.9	87.8	87.1
105	Florida Int’l.	86.4	86.6	87.3	86.8
106	Buffalo	85.1	87.4	87.1	86.5
107	S. Alabama	85.7	88.0	85.7	86.5
108	Hawaii	85.0	86.0	84.8	85.3
109	Middle Tennessee	84.5	85.7	85.1	85.1
110	Connecticut	83.8	85.9	83.7	84.5
111	Southern Miss.	83.9	85.1	84.4	84.4
112	Georgia St.	84.3	84.0	84.3	84.2
113	N. Texas	83.1	84.8	83.6	83.8
114	Old Dominion	82.2	84.8	82.3	83.1
115	East Carolina	82.3	83.9	82.1	82.8
116	Kansas	81.9	85.0	80.9	82.6
117	UL-Lafayette	81.1	82.5	81.1	81.6
118	Idaho	80.2	81.4	80.9	80.8
119	UL-Monroe	80.4	81.5	79.5	80.5
120	Bowling Green	78.9	79.8	79.3	79.3
121	Kent St.	77.2	78.8	77.5	77.8
122	UAB	75.7	79.0	77.7	77.5
123	San Jose St.	76.7	76.8	76.0	76.5
124	Rice	75.0	76.1	75.3	75.5
125	Georgia Southern	74.4	75.9	73.8	74.7
126	Texas St.	73.2	75.3	72.5	73.7
127	U T E P	72.1	75.0	72.4	73.2
128	Charlotte	72.2	74.5	72.5	73.1
129	Ball St.	69.3	71.4	70.3	70.3
130	Coastal Carolina	69.3	70.7	70.2	70.1

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	4-0	7-0	113.1	114.5	114.4	114.0
South Florida	4-1	7-1	110.0	108.8	110.8	109.9
Temple	1-3	3-5	92.7	93.2	92.7	92.9
Cincinnati	0-4	2-6	87.3	89.3	88.6	88.4
Connecticut	2-3	3-5	83.8	85.9	83.7	84.5
East Carolina	1-3	2-6	82.3	83.9	82.1	82.8
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	4-1	7-1	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.4
Houston	3-2	5-3	103.0	102.5	103.2	102.9
Navy	3-2	5-2	101.7	102.4	101.9	102.0
SMU	3-1	6-2	98.2	98.6	98.5	98.4
Tulsa	1-4	2-7	96.4	96.5	96.0	96.3
Tulane	1-3	3-5	94.1	94.2	94.4	94.2
AAC Averages			97.4	98.0	97.8	97.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	5-1	7-1	127.6	125.0	127.1	126.6
N. Carolina St.	4-0	6-2	116.9	116.2	116.9	116.7
Florida St.	2-4	2-5	116.6	115.7	115.1	115.8
Louisville	2-4	5-4	111.8	110.9	111.6	111.4
Syracuse	2-2	4-4	112.0	110.3	111.4	111.2
Boston College	3-3	5-4	109.6	109.3	109.6	109.5
Wake Forest	2-3	5-3	109.0	107.4	108.7	108.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	3-1	7-1	122.3	121.6	122.5	122.1
Miami	5-0	7-0	120.4	118.5	119.6	119.5
Georgia Tech	3-2	4-3	116.4	114.0	115.2	115.2
Pittsburgh	2-3	4-5	106.2	106.0	106.0	106.1
Duke	1-5	4-5	106.3	105.6	105.0	105.6
N. Carolina	0-6	1-8	100.9	100.0	99.8	100.2
Virginia	2-2	5-3	100.1	99.6	100.3	100.0
ACC Averages			112.6	111.4	112.0	112.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma St.	4-1	7-1	124.4	123.3	125.2	124.3
Oklahoma	4-1	7-1	121.7	120.7	122.1	121.5
T C U	4-1	7-1	118.7	116.8	119.0	118.1
Texas	3-2	4-4	115.8	116.2	116.5	116.2
Iowa State	4-1	5-3	112.9	112.8	114.2	113.3
Kansas St.	2-3	4-4	110.4	110.4	110.3	110.4
West Virginia	3-2	5-3	109.8	110.4	110.0	110.1
Texas Tech	1-4	4-4	104.2	104.1	103.4	103.9
Baylor	0-5	0-8	97.2	98.9	97.2	97.8
Kansas	0-5	1-7	81.9	85.0	80.9	82.6
Big 12 Averages			109.7	109.9	109.9	109.8
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	5-0	7-1	135.7	133.3	135.8	134.9
Penn St.	4-1	7-1	129.8	127.6	130.7	129.4
Michigan	3-2	6-2	112.8	112.9	111.8	112.5
Michigan St.	4-1	6-2	104.3	105.7	105.5	105.2
Indiana	0-5	3-5	104.3	104.5	104.7	104.5
Maryland	2-3	4-4	101.1	102.4	100.8	101.4
Rutgers	2-3	3-5	95.5	95.4	95.0	95.3
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	5-0	8-0	120.3	117.4	118.8	118.9
Northwestern	3-2	5-3	110.6	109.4	110.6	110.2
Iowa	2-3	5-3	109.8	110.1	109.5	109.8
Minnesota	1-4	4-4	103.7	104.5	103.0	103.7
Purdue	1-4	3-5	102.7	102.9	102.9	102.8
Nebraska	3-2	4-4	101.1	102.0	100.3	101.1
Illinois	0-5	2-6	89.4	90.5	88.3	89.4
Big Ten Averages			108.7	108.5	108.4	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	4-0	5-3	95.7	97.7	97.2	96.9
Marshall	3-1	6-2	91.6	92.9	93.3	92.6
W. Kentucky	3-2	5-3	91.0	91.0	91.9	91.3
Florida Int’l.	3-1	5-2	86.4	86.6	87.3	86.8
Middle Tennessee	1-3	3-5	84.5	85.7	85.1	85.1
Old Dominion	0-4	2-6	82.2	84.8	82.3	83.1
Charlotte	1-3	1-7	72.2	74.5	72.5	73.1
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	2-2	5-2	92.3	94.4	93.5	93.4
Louisiana Tech	2-2	4-4	88.5	90.2	89.3	89.4
Southern Miss.	3-2	5-3	83.9	85.1	84.4	84.4
N. Texas	4-1	5-3	83.1	84.8	83.6	83.8
UAB	3-1	5-2	75.7	79.0	77.7	77.5
Rice	1-3	1-7	75.0	76.1	75.3	75.5
U T E P	0-4	0-8	72.1	75.0	72.4	73.2
CUSA Averages			83.9	85.6	84.7	84.7
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		7-1	122.4	120.9	123.3	122.2
Army		6-2	98.0	98.1	98.5	98.2
BYU		2-7	89.1	89.0	88.5	88.8
Massachusetts		2-6	88.8	88.1	89.0	88.6
Independents Averages			99.6	99.0	99.8	99.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	3-1	6-2	95.0	96.1	96.0	95.7
Miami (O)	2-2	3-5	88.6	90.7	89.9	89.7
Akron	4-1	5-4	87.0	89.4	87.5	88.0
Buffalo	1-4	3-6	85.1	87.4	87.1	86.5
Bowling Green	1-3	1-7	78.9	79.8	79.3	79.3
Kent St.	1-3	2-6	77.2	78.8	77.5	77.8
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	4-0	7-1	104.1	104.2	105.8	104.7
Western Michigan	3-1	5-3	99.6	98.4	100.7	99.6
Eastern Michigan	0-4	2-6	96.0	95.6	96.4	96.0
Northern Illinois	4-0	6-2	93.9	93.8	94.8	94.1
Central Michigan	2-2	4-4	91.4	92.3	91.8	91.8
Ball St.	0-4	2-6	69.3	71.4	70.3	70.3
MAC Averages			88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	4-0	6-2	106.8	105.1	106.8	106.2
Colo. State	4-1	6-3	102.0	101.0	101.9	101.6
Wyoming	3-1	5-3	99.1	97.8	98.0	98.3
Air Force	3-2	4-4	96.3	96.7	96.8	96.6
Utah St.	2-3	4-5	92.1	91.3	91.7	91.7
New Mexico	1-4	3-5	87.4	87.2	88.0	87.5
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	3-2	7-2	99.0	99.1	99.7	99.3
Fresno St.	4-1	5-3	94.8	93.9	95.4	94.7
U N L V	2-3	3-5	87.2	88.8	87.4	87.8
Nevada	1-3	1-7	86.4	88.4	87.9	87.5
Hawaii	1-4	3-5	85.0	86.0	84.8	85.3
San Jose St.	0-4	1-8	76.7	76.8	76.0	76.5
MWC Averages			92.7	92.7	92.9	92.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	4-1	7-1	127.4	124.7	127.8	126.6
Stanford	5-1	6-2	118.8	117.4	118.2	118.1
Washington St.	3-2	6-2	114.4	112.1	113.8	113.4
Oregon	2-4	5-4	107.8	105.9	106.9	106.9
California	1-5	4-5	104.4	102.3	102.5	103.1
Oregon St.	0-5	1-7	95.6	95.3	94.2	95.0
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	5-1	7-2	118.7	117.9	118.6	118.4
Arizona	4-1	6-2	108.8	107.2	107.9	108.0
Colorado	2-4	5-4	107.7	106.0	105.6	106.4
U C L A	2-3	4-4	106.0	105.2	105.4	105.5
Arizona St.	3-2	4-4	105.4	104.6	105.1	105.0
Utah	1-4	4-4	102.1	103.3	101.7	102.4
Pac-12 Averages			109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	5-0	8-0	128.6	128.7	129.0	128.8
Florida	3-3	3-4	111.0	110.4	110.2	110.5
S. Carolina	4-2	6-2	108.4	107.4	107.5	107.8
Kentucky	3-2	6-2	107.5	106.3	106.6	106.8
Tennessee	0-5	3-5	104.2	102.5	102.4	103.0
Vanderbilt	0-5	3-5	102.4	101.6	101.1	101.7
Missouri	0-4	3-5	101.5	99.6	100.8	100.6
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	5-0	8-0	139.0	134.8	137.8	137.2
Auburn	4-1	6-2	126.4	124.3	126.5	125.7
L S U	3-1	6-2	116.2	114.3	116.7	115.7
Mississippi St.	3-2	6-2	114.3	114.6	114.6	114.5
Texas A&M	3-2	5-3	107.4	105.4	106.6	106.5
Ole Miss	1-4	3-5	104.2	102.9	102.6	103.2
Arkansas	1-4	3-5	101.8	101.0	101.0	101.3
SEC Averages			112.3	111.0	111.7	111.7
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Arkansas St.	4-0	5-2	95.5	96.4	97.0	96.3
Troy	3-1	6-2	95.8	95.9	95.3	95.7
Appalachian St.	4-0	5-3	95.2	93.7	95.1	94.7
N. Mexico St.	1-3	3-5	87.5	85.9	87.8	87.1
S. Alabama	2-2	3-5	85.7	88.0	85.7	86.5
Georgia St.	3-1	4-3	84.3	84.0	84.3	84.2
UL-Lafayette	2-2	3-4	81.1	82.5	81.1	81.6
Idaho	2-2	3-5	80.2	81.4	80.9	80.8
UL-Monroe	3-3	3-5	80.4	81.5	79.5	80.5
Georgia Southern	0-3	0-7	74.4	75.9	73.8	74.7
Texas St.	1-3	2-6	73.2	75.3	72.5	73.7
Coastal Carolina	0-5	1-7	69.3	70.7	70.2	70.1
Sun Belt Averages			83.6	84.3	83.6	83.8

PiRate Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	112.6	111.4	112.0	112.0
2	SEC	112.3	111.0	111.7	111.7
3	BIG 12	109.7	109.9	109.9	109.8
4	PAC-12	109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
5	BIG TEN	108.7	108.5	108.4	108.5
6	INDEP.	99.6	99.0	99.8	99.5
7	AAC	97.4	98.0	97.8	97.7
8	MWC	92.7	92.7	92.9	92.8
9	MAC	88.8	89.8	89.7	89.5
10	CUSA	83.9	85.6	84.7	84.7
11	Sun Belt	83.6	84.3	83.6	83.8

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Troy
Cure	AAC	SBC	Navy	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Boise St.	Stanford
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	Colorado St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	MAC	SMU	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Utah St.]	Florida Int’l.
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	Florida Atlantic	Toledo
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Western Michigan	Wyoming
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	[UAB]	[Miami (O)]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	Army	[Middle Tennessee]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Akron	Georgia St.
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Central Florida	Air Force
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	[Utah]	UTSA
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	[Central Michigan]	[Western Ky.]
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Texas Tech	Colorado
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Wake Forest	[Southern Miss.]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	Syracuse	Nebraska
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	[Fresno St.]	Washington St.
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Missouri
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	Houston	Boston College
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Michigan St.	Arizona
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	TCU	USC
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Miami (Fla.)	South Carolina
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Louisville	Oregon
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Iowa	Kentucky
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	[Arizona St.]
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma St.	Clemson
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Georgia Tech	Auburn
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	West Virginia	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Washington
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	North Carolina St.	Penn St.
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan	Texas A&M
Peach	At-large	At-large	Wisconsin	Memphis
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Northwestern	Mississippi St.
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Georgia	Ohio St.
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Alabama	Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It has become an annual inclusion in the PiRate Ratings, printed on the first November weekend of every season, to post the famous football poem concerning the old Oakland Raiders from their heyday.  Since, we are only posting ratings and spreads without commentary in the NFL reports, we will include this poem today.

The Autumn Wind

By Steve Sabol

The Autumn Wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea,
With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weather beaten.
He wears a hooded sash,
With a silver hat about his head,
And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,
A villain big and bold.
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,
As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a Radier,
Pillaging just for fun.
He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,
And laugh when he’s conquered and won.

---

Another annual November rite includes the adding of Mid-American Conference football games Tuesdays and Wednesdays, so that from last Thursday, a football fan can watch some college or pro game every day of the week.  Of course, with the incredible World Series going on at the current time, who would watch Sunday Night Football, or the Tuesday (and maybe Wednesday) MAC games?

This week features another great slate of college football games.  There are Playoff eliminators, bowl eliminators, and bowl positioning games.  Additionally, there are possibilities where additional coaches could be let go before the end of the season, as the Chip Kelly Sweepstakes has now begun in earnest.

In case you haven’t heard, Florida let Jim McElwain go after the cocktail party in Jacksonville failed to serve any appetizers to the Gators.  The Bulldogs did all the eating, and Randy Shannon will now guide the Gators until the season ends.  That ending now looks to be against Florida State and not in a bowl game, as the Gators are now 3-4 with only 11 games to be played due to the hurricane.

Speaking of Florida State, the Seminoles also may finish play against Florida.  It looks like FSU could be heading toward a 5-6 record and not earn a bowl bid.

The top game this week has to be Bedlam.  Oklahoma visits Oklahoma State, and the winner stays in contention for a Playoff spot, while the loser hopes to be able to finish in second place to possibly earn a rematch with the winner in the Big 12 Championship. Game.

This past weekend saw Penn State, South Florida, and TCU fall from the unbeaten ranks, leaving Alabama, Georgia, Central Florida, Miami, and Wisconsin as the final five undefeated teams.  You will notice in our bowl projections, we have removed UCF from the New Year’s 6 Bowl in favor of Memphis, after this past weekend saw FCS school Austin Peay hang 33 points on the Knights.  Toledo is still very much alive in the Group of 5 race for the one NY6 bowl bid.

Our prognosticators here on the ship have looked through the spyglass, and they see some rough waters ahead for both Wisconsin and Miami, so it could be that the last two unbeaten teams just may square off prior to the Playoffs with the loser having a shot at revenge in the National Championship Game.

The Playoff Committee has never selected two teams from the same conference in the short history of NCAA Playoffs, but if Alabama and Georgia run the table in the regular season, and when they face off in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game, they are the last two undefeated teams and ranked number one and number two, the loser would have a better than 50-50 chance of remaining in the top four, maybe even at number two!

Notre Dame is probably at the top of the one-loss team hierarchy in the Playoff race.  Their lone loss is by one point to Georgia, and if they win out, their strength of schedule should be enough to give them a Playoff invitation.

As for the fourth spot, how can you deny Oklahoma, if the Sooners win out, or Oklahoma State if the Cowboys win out?  Ohio State lost at home to Oklahoma, and the Buckeyes need for the Sooners to lose again.  However, if Oklahoma State is the team that beats OU, and OSU wins out, it would be difficult not to include Mike Gundy’s team in as the fourth seed.

Then, there is Clemson.  The Tigers made it into the field last year with a 12-1 record, so wouldn’t it be the right thing to do to include the reigning national champion in the Playoff it is has the identical record to last season?

Ohio State can still improve its position with wins over Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but the Buckeyes realistically need for the Big 12 to produce a two-loss champion, and they might even need the ACC to do so as well.

There are some other interesting possibilities.  Georgia has to play at Auburn, and the Tigers could be playing for Coach Guz Malzahn’s job.  The Bulldogs must also face arch-rival Georgia Tech.  Alabama has tough games remaining against LSU this week, Mississippi State, and Auburn.  As dominant as the Crimson Tide have been in the Nick Saban era, they have only run the table one time, back in 2009.

The PiRate Lasses (5 wonderfully, brilliant, fun-loving ladies that give the Captain a hard time) demanded that some notice was made of their Money Line Parlays this past weekend.  They hit on 3 out of the 4 and came within an overtime of going 4-0.  Best of all, their two-team underdog parlay hit and paid off at +375 odds, so for the year, the parlay selections have gone from red numbers to black numbers.  Obviously, the Captain has lost control of the Thursday edition here, and you can expect to see the ladies do the game-picking for the rest of the season, or at least until their run of pure luck runs out.

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 26-28, 2017

Oh brother!  I leave my ladies in charge of the website for a few days, and when I return from a nice long weekend, they have rearranged all the e-furniture.  Worse, they exchanged the Money Line picks I had left with their own, and they actually enjoyed a winning week.  They issued four selections (totally different than what I had left to be published), and they won two of the four for a return on investment of 28%.

Believe me, I have not heard the end of this.  Mrs. Captain, of course, sided with her gender, and so this week, I must defer to the ladies to pick the parlays yet again.  All I have done is to organize their picks into the best possible parlay odds by sourcing the best odds from the available books.  What you have as a result are four more parlays, each returning greater than +120 odds (actually this week better than +150) while playing no more than three games per parlay.

Because the ladies selected to teams to win outright as underdogs, and to minimize risk, I have combined these two underdogs in one parlay that, if it wins, it would return an incredible payoff at +375 (a $100 investment would return $475).

One preface to this before you look at the parlays.  Two of the ladies here bleed scarlet and gray and believe that the Giant Horseshoe is a basilica, tabernacle, shrine, and temple.  They believe that script Ohio is akin to the holy scriptures.  Their key pick this week is Ohio State over Penn State, and to add to their partiality, they refer to the opponent at State Pen, and they believe James Franklin was set on Earth by Lucifer.

Personally, I see the Buckeyes ready to get their revenge, but I know Coach Franklin and have seen him work miracles at Vanderbilt.  If he could win at Georgia and Florida as a bigger underdog than his Nittany Lions will be tomorrow, then he can certainly channel his inner Tom Lasorda and get his team ready to run through the walls at said horseshoe.  I would not have selected this game as part of a parlay, but then I have ceded control of this submission to the lasses.

#1 @ +152
Must Win	Must Lose
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St.	Marshall
Georgia	Florida

#2 @ +162
Must Win	Must Lose
South Carolina	Vanderbilt
Notre Dame	NC State
Texas	Baylor

#3 @ +152
Must Win	Must Lose
SMU	Tulsa
Iowa	Minnesota
Ohio St.	Penn St.

#4 @ +375
Must Win	Must Lose
Northwestern	Michigan St.
Wyoming	New Mexico

Money Line Parlay Tutorial for newcomers to this site

If you are new to Money Lines and Parlays, hopefully this will explain it well enough for you to understand what is going on above.

When two sports teams play, the more familiar way to provide options for wagering is a pointspread.  For instance, say that Notre Dame is playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Alabama might be favored to win by 6 1/2 points.  In order for Alabama to win the game for those that bet on the Crimson Tide, they would have to win by 7 or more points.  If Notre Dame won or lost by 6 points or less, then those that wagered on Notre Dame would win their bets.

There is another way to bet on this game.  It is called the “Money Line.”  Pointspreads are not used.  Instead, you simply pick either Alabama or Notre Dame to win the game.  If you can bet on Alabama to win this game, even by one point, it sounds too good to be true.  Yes, there is a catch here.  In order to bet on Alabama, you must put up more money than the sports book, but if you bet on the underdog Irish to win the game, the book puts up more money than you.  This is why the wager is called a “money line.”

When you look at money line odds, the favorite will have a minus number, and the underdog will have a plus number, although there are times when a tossup game will have two minus numbers.  The reason for this is that the sports books must get their cut or vigorish.

Let’s look at a couple games to be played tonight.  Northern Illinois hosts Eastern Michigan, and NIU is a modest favorite.  The Money Line is available at about 15 sports books where one could make a wager in one’s home via the Internet.  The line may vary from site to sire, so it is best to shop around to find the best odds.

For our purposes in this tutorial, we will use one famous online sports book, Five Dimes.  At the present time, the Money Line odds at 5D for the NIU-EMU game is listed at:   Northern Illinois -275, Eastern Michigan +235.

If you want to wager on NIU, you must put up $275 for every $100 5 Dimes puts up.  If you wager $100 on NIU to win, you will $36.36 profit and receive back $136.36 if NIU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.  If you wager $100 on EMU to win, you will receive $275 profit and receive back $375 if EMU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.

When you combine two or more games into one money line wager, your odds improve, but your chances of winning all the games in the one wager go down.  Let’s say you want to combine three favorites into one betting wager.  Let’s say you are going to play a parlay that includes Favorite #1 at -250, Favorite #2 at -225, and Favorite #3 at -180.

How do yo determine what the odds would be on this parlay of three favorites, all of whom would have to win their games for you to win your wager?  I won’t bore you with the mathematical formula.  There is an easy way to figure the odds, and it is called a parlay calculator.  You don’t have to buy this from a Las Vegas book store.  They are available for free in many places online.  In our opinion, the parlay calculator at Vegasinsider.com is the easiest one to use.  You can find this calculator at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

First, we select $100 for the bet amount (you can put any other amount in this spot, but all of the PiRate Rating parlays are played at $100 per wager.  We simply input -250, -225-, and -180 adjacent to Team #1 Money Line, Team #2 Money Line, and Team #3 Money Line.  Then we click on “Calculate”, and we see the number $214.57 returned.  This means that if these three favorites we have selected all win their games, we will make a $214.57 profit and receive $314.57 in our account (The profit plus what we wagered).  If the three teams do not all win their games, we will be out the $100 we invested on this game.  It can be a headache to see two teams win their games, and then your final favored team loses in an upset due to a fourth quarter field goal, but it happens, and you have to live with it.

Our goal at the PiRate Ratings is to select parlays that return better than +120 odds, while betting mostly on favored teams.  We prefer to play no more than three games in a parlay, but there are times when we might play 6 or 7 prohibitive favorites when the odds look preferable.  We won a 7-team parlay once that returned +200 odds, and all 7 teams won by double-digits.  Of course, this is a rare event.  Every week, some big underdog will upset a favorite.  In recent weeks, we had some considerable underdogs pulling off big upsets.  Syracuse surprised Clemson.  Arizona State beat up on Washington, Arizona took out Washington State, Tulsa whipped Houston, Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Troy beat LSU.  These sure things that could have been included on parlays destroyed the selections.

As usual, read this and understand it: The PiRates never wager real currency on our selections.  We enjoy the fun that mathematics married to athletics brings a group of math geeks.  We only wager imaginary money on these games, and thus we have no worries about issuing these picks.  They are strictly for the fun of it, and enjoying a winning week is a win for mathematics and not our bank accounts.

Enjoy the games, but be just as wealthy on Sunday morning as you are on Saturday morning.

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ball St.	Toledo	-29.0	-26.8	-29.3
Georgia St.	South Alabama	-0.7	-3.5	-1.1
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	1.1	1.3	1.6
Oregon St.	Stanford	-25.0	-23.9	-25.8
Boston College	Florida St.	-11.7	-10.5	-10.5
Memphis	Tulane	12.3	11.5	11.9
SMU	Tulsa	4.6	4.9	5.2
Purdue	Nebraska	5.4	4.3	7.0
Kentucky	Tennessee	6.4	6.9	7.7
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	8.8	8.6	9.2
Akron	Buffalo	4.2	4.3	2.7
South Florida	Houston	13.5	12.7	14.7
Wake Forest	Louisville	-3.4	-3.8	-3.6
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	-19.1	-17.9	-19.6
Michigan	Rutgers	20.0	20.2	19.5
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	13.2	14.2	14.3
Massachusetts	Appalachian St.	-4.6	-3.5	-4.3
Pittsburgh	Virginia	6.2	6.9	5.1
Clemson	Georgia Tech	14.0	13.8	14.7
Connecticut	Missouri	-9.8	-5.3	-8.6
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	-11.3	-9.7	-12.0
Maryland	Indiana	-0.9	0.4	-1.6
Virginia Tech	Duke	18.5	18.7	20.2
Illinois	Wisconsin	-30.8	-26.5	-30.8
Coastal Carolina	Texas St.	3.9	2.4	6.4
Deleted	Game	0	0	0
Kansas	Kansas St.	-29.6	-26.4	-30.5
Iowa	Minnesota	9.5	8.5	10.0
Wyoming	New Mexico	7.2	6.1	5.5
New Mexico St.	Arkansas St.	-3.1	-6.4	-4.3
BYU	San Jose St.	15.0	14.8	15.1
UTEP	UTSA	-18.4	-17.3	-19.5
Idaho	Louisiana-Monroe	1.8	2.5	3.3
Colorado St.	Air Force	15.8	14.0	15.6
Southern Miss.	UAB	17.4	15.2	15.8
Colorado	California	3.9	4.7	3.2
Arizona St.	USC	-5.0	-5.3	-4.7
Rice	Louisiana Tech	-10.8	-11.4	-11.3
Oregon	Utah	5.3	1.8	3.9
Notre Dame	N. Carolina St.	5.7	4.9	6.3
Washington	UCLA	23.7	21.8	24.7
Troy	Georgia Southern	23.8	22.5	24.0
Northwestern	Michigan St.	10.4	7.1	9.5
Deleted	Game	0	0	0
North Texas	Old Dominion	3.4	2.7	3.9
Baylor	Texas	-12.9	-11.7	-13.7
Iowa St.	TCU	-6.6	-4.1	-6.1
Florida (n)	Georgia	-12.3	-13.6	-13.5
Western Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	0.6	-2.3	0.1
Arizona	Washington St.	-10.0	-8.7	-10.7
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	20.3	19.3	21.5
Ole Miss	Arkansas	6.4	5.5	5.6
Ohio St.	Penn St.	9.0	8.4	7.8
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	1.4	-1.5	0.5
Utah St.	Boise St.	-6.4	-5.5	-6.4
Fresno St.	UNLV	16.4	12.9	17.4
Hawaii	San Diego St.	-7.1	-6.2	-8.0

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Central Florida	Austin Peay	41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Penn St.
3	Georgia
4	TCU
5	Notre Dame
6	Clemson
7	Ohio St.
8	Wisconsin
9	Miami (Fla)
10	Central Florida
11	Washington
12	Oklahoma St.
13	Oklahoma
14	Michigan St.
15	Stanford
16	Virginia Tech
17	North Carolina St.
18	Washington St.
19	USC
20	Auburn
21	South Florida
22	Michigan
23	Texas A&M
24	Mississippi St.
25	LSU
26	Iowa St.
27	Memphis
28	Georgia Tech
29	Toledo
30	West Virginia
31	Iowa
32	Boise St.
33	South Carolina
34	Arizona St.
35	Navy
36	Louisville
37	Fresno St.
38	San Diego St.
39	Arizona
40	Florida St.
41	Wake Forest
42	Texas
43	Northwestern
44	UCLA
45	Florida
46	Boston College
47	Texas Tech
48	Marshall
49	Colorado St.
50	Kentucky
51	SMU
52	Syracuse
53	Oregon
54	Northern Illinois
55	Indiana
56	California
57	Utah
58	Purdue
59	Virginia
60	Western Michigan
61	Houston
62	Troy
63	Minnesota
64	Maryland
65	Appalachian St.
66	Kansas St.
67	Army
68	Florida Atlantic
69	Duke
70	Pittsburgh
71	Southern Miss.
72	Nebraska
73	Colorado
74	Tennessee
75	Ohio
76	Ole Miss
77	Arkansas St.
78	Vanderbilt
79	Tulane
80	Akron
81	Arkansas
82	Air Force
83	Rutgers
84	Wyoming
85	North Texas
86	Utah St.
87	UTSA
88	New Mexico
89	Louisiana Tech
90	Florida Int’l.
91	Western Kentucky
92	Missouri
93	Tulsa
94	Eastern Michigan
95	Central Michigan
96	Cincinnati
97	Temple
98	North Carolina
99	Buffalo
100	New Mexico St.
101	Miami (O)
102	Georgia St.
103	Middle Tennessee
104	South Alabama
105	Connecticut
106	Illinois
107	Baylor
108	UL-Monroe
109	UAB
110	East Carolina
111	Nevada
112	UNLV
113	Hawaii
114	Oregon St.
115	BYU
116	UL-Lafayette
117	Old Dominion
118	Kent St.
119	Idaho
120	Bowling Green
121	Massachusetts
122	Kansas
123	Ball St.
124	Coastal Carolina
125	Rice
126	Charlotte
127	San Jose St.
128	UTEP
129	Georgia Southern
130	Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	138.7	134.5	137.5	136.9
2	Ohio St.	135.9	133.3	135.8	135.0
3	Penn St.	129.9	127.9	131.0	129.6
4	Georgia	126.3	126.7	126.7	126.6
5	Washington	127.3	124.6	127.7	126.5
6	Clemson	127.5	124.9	127.0	126.5
7	Auburn	126.1	124.0	126.2	125.4
8	Oklahoma St.	124.3	123.2	125.1	124.2
9	Virginia Tech	122.2	121.6	122.5	122.1
10	Oklahoma	121.6	120.6	122.0	121.4
11	Miami	121.7	119.7	121.0	120.8
12	Notre Dame	121.0	119.5	121.8	120.7
13	Wisconsin	122.0	118.9	120.7	120.6
14	Stanford	121.2	119.8	120.6	120.5
15	T C U	120.9	118.6	121.4