PiRate Ratings–College Football Bowls & Playoffs

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday	December 15
New Mexico Bowl		2:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah St.	North Texas	11.6	10.2	12.4
Cure Bowl		2:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Louisiana	9.3	7.5	7.3
Las Vegas Bowl		3:30 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	Arizona St.	2.8	3.7	3.4
Camellia Bowl		5:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern	Eastern Michigan	-4.7	-4.2	-4.3
New Orleans Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Middle Tennessee	-0.6	-0.7	-0.2
Tuesday	December 18
Boca Raton Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
UAB	Northern Illinois	-0.6	0.7	-0.2
Wednesday	December 19
Frisco Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
San Diego St.	Ohio U	-8.7	-9.8	-9.4
Thursday	December 20
Gasparilla Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Florida	Marshall	-1.9	-2.8	-3.0
Friday	December 21
Bahamas Bowl		12:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Florida Int’l.	9.8	7.9	9.3
Idaho Potato Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	BYU	-11.1	-10.0	-11.2
Saturday	December 22	12:00 PM on ESPN
Birmingham Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Wake Forest	-2.3	0.7	0.3
Armed Forces Bowl		3:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Army	-1.3	-1.5	-1.2
Dollar General Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Troy	5.6	5.8	5.1
Hawaii Bowl		10:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Hawaii	Louisiana Tech	-3.3	-3.6	-4.0
Wednesday	December 26
First Responder Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Boston College	-0.3	1.7	0.5
Quick Lane Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Minnesota	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.6	-11.4
Cheez-it Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	California	0.4	1.2	-0.8
Thursday	December 27	1:30 PM on ESPN
Independence Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Duke	Temple	6.4	4.1	5.0
Pinstripe Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wisconsin	Miami (Fla.)	-6.5	-7.5	-7.0
Texas Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baylor	Vanderbilt	-0.4	-2.1	-1.1
Friday	December 28
Music City Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Auburn	Purdue	6.8	7.2	8.4
Camping World Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	West Virginia	1.0	0.8	1.2
Arizona Bowl		5:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Nevada	Arkansas St.	3.6	2.2	1.6
Alamo Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa St.	Washington St.	-3.3	-3.9	-3.6
Saturday	December 29
Peach Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida	Michigan	-9.7	-9.9	-9.6
Belk Bowl		12:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Carolina	Virginia	5.9	4.8	6.6
Cotton Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Clemson	Notre Dame	12.6	12.9	14.3
Orange Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	Oklahoma	19.2	18.7	20.8
Monday	December 31
Redbox Bowl		3:00 PM on Fox
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	Michigan St.	-0.8	1.0	0.4
Military Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Cincinnati	1.9	-0.2	1.0
Sun Bowl		2:00 PM on CBS
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Stanford	Pittsburgh	5.3	4.2	6.1
Liberty Bowl		3:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	Oklahoma St.	12.0	12.1	13.1
Holiday Bowl		7:00 PM on FS1
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah	Northwestern	6.0	6.1	6.7
Gator Bowl		7:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Texas A&M	-2.9	-2.7	-4.0
Tuesday	January 1
Outback Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN2
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa	Mississippi St.	-7.5	-7.8	-9.3
Citrus Bowl		1:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kentucky	Penn St.	-6.7	-5.6	-6.5
Fiesta Bowl		1:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
LSU	Central Florida	2.9	1.5	3.0
Rose Bowl		5:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	Washington	6.9	7.1	6.6
Sugar Bowl		8:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia	Texas	14.9	14.3	17.1
Monday	January 7
National Championship Game		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bama or Okla.	Clem or N. Dame

For those that need to know–these ratings include the list of star players that are sitting out their bowl so as not to risk injury prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.  For example, Will Grier will not play for West Virginia, and that is enough to switch the Mountaineers from favorite to underdog.  This includes a list through Saturday, December 9.

NOTE:  The PiRate Ratings will commence with college basketball coverage as soon as all the major conference teams have played their tenth game.  Our rating is meaningless until every team has played 10 games.

Once again, we have combined all three of our sub-ratings into one more accurate rating.  We will issue spreads on weekend games through the conference tournaments and then spreads on the conference tournament games.

Additionally, starting in Mid-January, we will see the return of our Bracketology Gurus, who in two years of existence have gotten all 68 teams in the tournament one year and 67 of the 68 teams in the other.  We hand-picked 12 not-so-angry men that love college basketball and devote about the same amount of time in analyzing college basketball data as we analyze Major League Baseball.

 

 

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What If… An NCAA Playoffs With No Committee Choices

Four teams are happy.  At least three teams are sad and feel slighted.  Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been invited to the playoffs.  Ohio State and Georgia were jilted.

There could be an argument for Oklahoma and Notre Dame over Ohio State and Georgia.  On the other hand, the folks that know best, those sharps in Nevada, would tell you that Georgia is the third best team in the nation.  Many computers will tell you that on December 29, 2018, Ohio State would be a better team than Oklahoma.

Imagine if specially appointed committees chose other things for the rest of us.  How would you like some insider former politicians explaining to you why Candidate A will be your President instead of Candidate B, even though all the political experts say that Candidate B would be the better Chief Excutive?

What is a special committee of psychologists chose who you will marry based on their criteria.  You may be in love with Michelle, but they may choose Kelly for you because she can balance a checkbook and you cannot?

What if the NFL had to choose just four teams for the playoffs.  This year, there are five really good teams in the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, and Texans.  Maybe the Bears and Chargers are also among the four best.  Do you want a 12-4 division winner not making the NFL Playoffs?

Of course you don’t.  And, the fandom of college football doesn’t buy for a minute that the Selection Committee knows what it’s doing.  Let’s see any of them pick games against the spread.  If they are true experts, then they will put up results that make Billy Walters look like an amateur.

The four team playoff did nothing to solve the problems of the two-team BCS National Championship Game it replaced.  In fact, this year, you could make an excellent argument that just putting Alabama against Clemson would be a better option than picking four out of six or seven deserving teams.

Any legitimate FBS Playoffs must allow every FBS team a chance to play their way into said playoffs.  There are 130 FBS teams.  There needs to be no more than 64 top level teams and preferably 32, but let’s not even talk about separating the Power 5 from the Group of 5.  Let’s talk about honest realignment into 7 conferences of 16 teams  and 1 conference of 18 teams.  In an even better world, two FBS teams would drop down to FCS, leaving 128 teams.

Divide each conference into two divisions.  Every team within a division will play each other during the regular season plus three teams in the other division.  In the 18-team conference, there will be just two teams against the other division.  The rhyme and reason to which schools a team in the other division would play would be made by the league with a rotating schedule so that a different three teams would be played every year, possibly using the NFL’s strategy of having the prior first place team in one division playing the prior first place team in the other division and so on down to the prior last place teams playing each other.

At the end of the season, the top team in each division of each conference would then make the 16-team playoff.  In the first round, the division winners of each conference would play to determine the conference champion.  This would leave eight teams for eight playoff spots.

These conference championship games could be played on neutral sites like the current Power Five Conference Championship Games, or on the home field of the team with the better conference record with set tiebreakers to determine the higher seed if there is a tie.

With the number down to eight, the next round could be played on home fields of the higher seeds as determined by criteria that all teams and all fans will know, just like home field is determined in the NFL.  At no time will a committee of so-called experts determine who is in these playoffs and who will be the home team.

After this second round of the playoffs, the final four can then be played like it is today.

This would give every team a chance to play for the national title, just like all 350 Division 1 basketball teams have a chance.  If you think this isn’t fair to Alabama or Clemson to have to play more games to become national champion, then you must absolutely hate March Madness when Sister Jean and her Loyola Ramblers or Butler or Wichita State can make a run to the Final Four.  You must hate the fact that a Gonzaga can advance from a small program into one of the top 10 in the nation.

If the entire FBS has a chance to win the national title, then all programs will have a chance to do what Gonzaga has done in basketball.

Another bonus could be in scheduling.  Instead of an SEC team like Georgia scheduling Austin Peay and Massachusetts, or Alabama scheduling The Citadel, Arkansas State, and Louisiana (the one in Lafayette and not Baton Rouge), the national schedule makers could schedule Alabama and Oklahoma, or Georgia and Michigan.

What about the FBS vs. FCS games?  Why not give each FBS team two preseason games against FCS teams, where the FBS team pays the FCS team a check just like they do now?  With all the extra billions coming into this new paradigm, the FBS teams could keep these FCS programs solvent without putting a 63-3 pasting on them in a regular season game.

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 29-December 3, 2018

Our Land Sharps have become the 1970’s Boston Red Sox.  Most years during this decade, the Red Sox had a division lead well into multiple seasons only to suffer a disappointing finish and close with a mediocre record or just short of winning the division.  In one year, they lost by a half-game that is obviously the shortest losing margin ever.  In one year, they lost in a one-game playoff.  In another year, they led the division into September only to finish in a second place tie 1 1/2 games out.  Yes, there was 1975, the year Baltimore’s great teams of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s began to fall apart, and a year before the Yankees began their fantastic run.  It was like 1967 all over again, as the rest of the pack fell apart in September.

Our five Land Sharps were in the equivalent of first place in the football season equivalent of the first 120 games.  All five sported winning records with fat returns on investment.  We wrote about how incredible this feat was–that five people at random would contribute to this site and all beat the spread by healthy margins through October.

Ah, but the Autumn winds were definitely Raiders to our Land Sharps’ bank accounts.  As we lampoon the month as “No Fave November, the underdogs began to have their days. Teams that were winning easily and covering deflated spreads began to feel the effects of the long grind.  Teams with nothing to lose began to play their future prospects, especially those that could still play multiple games and take a red shirt under the new rules.  Certain players began to feel the pressure of playing for a division title or stay in contention for the NCAA Playoffs.  Weather began to affect games and lower scores.  All in all, once November football began, the underdogs began covering the spread a tiny bit more than in previous weeks.  Some of this could also have been attributed to the public falling in love with teams that won big in September and October.

Well, it affected our Land Sharps.  Two of the five have performed like the 1977 Chicago Cubs.  If you don’t remember the 1977 Cubs, they were more than 20 games over .500 in the first half of the season and running away with the division, just like the 1969 Cubs.  However, the 1977 squad completely reversed in the second half, losing so many games that they ended the season 81-81, a full 21 games out of first place.

The other three Land Sharps have done a little better, but all five have given away some investment to the mighty Books in November.

We now come to Championship Week.  Except in a couple of cases where teams are playing last-minute replacement games to make up for the September hurricane, the teams playing this week are all top-rated squads.  There is no decisive underdog that can over-perform, and the players will be fighting tooth and nail to their last ounce of energy to win this week.  It is almost like September again, except there are more injuries and players playing while injured to some extent.  We think, or at least we hope the Land Sharps will close with a rush to reclaim their prior financial fame.

Ironically, as our Land Sharps have struggled in November, the PiRate Ratings have been on fire with back-to-back winning weeks.  We will probably jinx ourselves by revealing this, but we have been on a big hot streak with our NFL 10-point Teasers.  In fact, in the last two weeks, we are 7-0, and in the last five weeks, it is 20-7.  Our college picks belong in the sewer, but since we are here for entertainment purposes only, and we know about 65% of you reading this come here for college football, we will continue to issue both college and pro football selections.  Just please take our advice: NEVER wager real currency (or the stuff they pass off as real) on the selections you see made here.  You have some presents to buy for your relatives, so don’t end up having to give them that 10-year old fruitcake (can you really tell the difference between fresh and 10-years old?), because you cannot afford the Isotoner gloves after you lost all the money betting on one of our goofy parlays.

Because this week’s schedule featured a limited schedule, we allowed the Sharps to pick as few as one game up to a maximum of five games.  None chose the easy way out and selected just one or two games.  Our Sharps chose three, four, or five games.

1. Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 38-29-0  56.7%

Return on Investment: +9.1%

California +3 vs. Stanford

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

2. Buckeye Michelle

Season: 32-26-1  55.2%

Return on Investment: +5.8%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Ohio St. -14 vs. Northwestern

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

3. Stewed Meat

Season: 36-31-3  53.7%

Return on Investment: +2.7%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

4. Dean615

Season: 29-27-2  51.8%

Return on Investment: -1.2%

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Georgia +13 1/2 vs. Alabama

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

 

5. Friday Dog 13

Season: 34-33-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.4%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Middle Tennessee -1 1/2 vs. UAB

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE

Moneyline Parlay	2 @ +183
Must Win	Must Lose
Central Florida	Memphis
Boise St.	Fresno St.

 

Moneyline Parlay	3 @ +191
Must Win	Must Lose
Buffalo	Northern Illinois
Virginia Tech	Marshall
Appalachian St.	Louisiana

 

NFL

10-Point Teaser	3-Game Parlay	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Dallas	New Orleans	3	New Orleans
Green Bay	Arizona	4	Green Bay
Baltimore	Atlanta	11	Atlanta
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Cincinnati	15	Cincinnati
L.A. Rams	Detroit	Pk	L.A. Rams
Kansas City	Oakland	4.5	Kansas City
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	N.Y. Jets	19	N.Y. Jets
New England	Minnesota	5.5	New England
Seattle	San Francisco	Pk	Seattle
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Washington	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia
Kansas City	Oakland	24.5	Oakland
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	14.5	N.Y. Giants

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 14

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Friday	November 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mid-American Conference Championship Game @ Buffalo
Buffalo	Northern Illinois	5.9	6.9	7.0
Pac-12 Conference Championship Game @ Santa Clara, CA
Washington	Utah	5.4	4.5	5.4

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX
Oklahoma	Texas	7.2	7.4	7.6
Sun Belt Conference Championship Game @ Appy St.
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	17.8	17.6	18.0
Conference USA Championship Game @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee	UAB	2.3	2.0	2.8
American Athletic Conference Championship Game @ Central FL
Central Florida	Memphis	11.3	10.4	10.8
Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta
Alabama	Georgia	12.8	13.4	13.3
Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ Boise St.
Boise St.	Fresno St.	2.7	3.0	3.2
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC
Clemson	Pittsburgh	30.3	28.7	31.4
Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN
Ohio St.	Northwestern	15.5	15.4	16.0

Other Saturday Games

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Marshall	12.6	8.6	10.7
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	30.9	29.9	30.5
South Carolina	Akron	30.2	28.2	30.4
California	Stanford	-5.2	-5.0	-5.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Iowa St.	Drake	42.7
Liberty	Norfolk St.	26.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4
2	Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3
3	Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2
4	Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4
9	Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
21	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3
22	Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8
23	Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6
24	Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7
25	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
26	S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9
30	Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1
40	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
54	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
55	Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7
68	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
69	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
70	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
71	Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
76	Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3
77	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
78	U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9
79	Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5
85	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0
111	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
112	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
113	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
118	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
119	Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3	8-0	11-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0	1-7	3-8
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5	5-3	8-4
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3	8-0	12-0
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9	5-3	8-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1	6-2	7-5
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6	4-4	5-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0	8-1	11-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6	7-2	9-3
Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7	6-3	7-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	8-1	11-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1	8-1	8-4
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3	7-1	8-4
Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5	6-2	8-3
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9	7-1	9-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3	x	5-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7	7-1	10-2
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8	2-6	4-7
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6	6-2	7-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6	7-1	10-2
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7	7-1	10-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4	7-2	9-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8	5-3	7-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6	4-4	7-4
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3	6-3	9-3
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2	7-1	11-1
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4	4-4	6-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4	8-0	12-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8	7-1	9-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5	5-3	7-5
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
2	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
3	ACC	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top Group of 5

Central Florida will get the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid with a win over Memphis this week in the CUSA Championship Game.  If Memphis pulls off the upset, then UCF could still sneak in depending on how the loss looks.

Should UCF fall by a considerable margin because Mackenzie Milton is out for the season, then Boise State could move above the Golden Knights should the Broncos defeat Fresno State for the second time.

Should Fresno State beat Boise State, and Memphis beat Central Florida, then there could be some issues with the awarding of Bowl Bids.  Because Army doesn’t play Navy until December 8, and the announcement of the bowl bids is December 3, then Army could be excluded even if they blowout Navy by 50 points.  In this instance, Central Florida would probably still get the bid at 11-1.  Had Army defeated Duke at the beginning of the season, then at 11-1 with a loss only to Oklahoma (a game they came close to winning), then the Bowl Committee would have been in a heap of trouble, having to make alternate announcements pending what Army did versus Navy.

At 10-2, Army may still get a chance to play a Power 5 opponent in a bowl game.  Coach Jeff Monken would be a cinch to be offered a Power 5 job if he was not in the Paul Johnson mode.  Monken’s triple option offense is stronger than Georgia Tech’s this year, and his defense is considerably better.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

This week, you will see many of the bowl projection sites beginning to come to agreement on the top bowl games.  No doubt, almost every projection will have Alabama in the Cotton Bowl against either Oklahoma or Ohio State, while Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the Orange Bowl.

We thought about this for a long time Saturday night as Clemson and Alabama continued to dominate.  It looked so much like the Playoffs could be narrowed to two teams.  However, we thought about something.  Georgia is not going to lay over and die for the Crimson Tide to roll over.  The Bulldogs have a bad taste in their mouth from last year, where they could smell the National Championship Trophy in the second half of the title game, before some freshman named Tua came off the bench in the second half and looked like a combination of Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

We have noticed the teams that have given Alabama the most trouble through the Nick Saban years.  These teams have physical defenses and offenses with dual-threat quarterbacks that can act as another running back while still passing like stars.  Think about Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, or DeShaun Watson.  Even Chad Kelly had legs and could take off and run.  These are the teams that gave the Crimson Tide the most trouble in the last decade.

In the last few weeks, Alabama’s defense has been exposed by this read and react style of offense.  The Citadel’s triple option basically embarrassed Alabama in the first half.  Auburn’s spread option offense did some damage, but Jarrett Stidham does not have the legs to motor on the keeper like the QBs that have outscored Alabama to victory.

Here’s the thing.  Just like Alabama last year, Georgia has their not-so-secret weapon sitting on the bench waiting to be this year’s Tua Tagovailoa.  Freshman sensation Justin Fields possesses the same skills as Newton, Manziel, and Watson.  He has the potential to lead Georgia to an upset victory and totally throw the FBS Playoffs into disarray.

What if Georgia beat Alabama?  Assuming Clemson easily dismisses Pittsburgh, then Clemson would be number one, Georgia and Notre Dame would be number two and three in either order, and Alabama would fall to number four.  Ohio State and Oklahoma would be left out.  Forget Central Florida.  Even if Bama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State, and Texas beats Oklahoma, a Georgia team at 11-2 would get into the playoffs before UCF.

If Georgia were to upset Alabama, then four SEC teams would most likely make the NY6 bowls.  The Bulldogs and Tide would make the playoffs.  Florida would most likely make the Peach Bowl, and LSU would probably edge out Penn State and others for the Sugar Bowl.

There are 81 bowl eligible teams as of today.  Virginia Tech is a win over Marshall this weekend from becoming bowl eligible and making it  82.  Liberty can get to 6-6 with a win over Norfolk State, but they have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility as a transition team to FBS once 78 teams became bowl eligible.

If you are a fan of a Mountain West, Mid-American, or Sun Belt Conference team that is 6-6 today, you better cheer hard for Marshall to knock off Virginia Tech.  There are already three teams too many for the bowls, and if the Hokies win, they will jump over any of the Group of 5 teams hoping to land in a bowl.  Teams like Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Wyoming, and Louisiana-Monroe are holding out for a miracle.  At most one of these teams will make it to a bowl, and if Virginia Tech wins this weekend, all four are likely to have empty envelopes.  Eastern Michigan could still top Western Michigan, but the Broncos have a larger fan base than the Eagles.

What you see below is our look at the bowls should Georgia beat Alabama.  You can look at all the others on the Internet to see what it would look like if the status quo remains, but we believe you will want to read this alternative look.

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Memphis	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Tulane	[Army]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Wake Forest]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	TCU
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Western Michigan]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	[San Diego St.]
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Georgia Tech	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Washington St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Notre Dame	Georgia
Orange			Clemson	Alabama
Championship Game			Georgia	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Syracuse	Louisville	10.5	Syracuse
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	1.5	Texas A&M
Kansas St.	Kansas	22	Kansas

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
West Virginia	TCU	1.5	WVU
Eastern Michigan	Akron	3	EMU
Duke	North Carolina	Pk	Duke

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arizona St.	UCLA	2.5	Arizona St.
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	9.5	Oklahoma
Purdue	Minnesota	2.5	Purdue

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulane	East Carolina	3.5	Tulane
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	10	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Auburn	24.5	Auburn

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cinciannati	East Carolina	2.5	Cincinnati
Texas Tech	Texas	8.5	Texas
UAB	Southern Miss.	2.5	UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	4	NC St.
Florida	South Carolina	20	S. Car.
BYU	Massachusetts	27	UMass
Troy	Georgia Southern	14.5	Ga. Southern

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Kentucky	7	Kentucky
Colorado	Washington St.	7	Washington St.
Louisiana	Georgia St.	1	Louisiana
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	7.5	UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win	Must Lose
Ohio U	Miami (O)
Northern Illinois	Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win	Must Lose
South Carolina	Florida
Kansas	Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Chicago	6.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Arizona	3.5	Kansas City
Tennessee	New England	6.5	New England
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10	Indianapolis

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	L.A. Chargers	3	L.A. Chargers
Miami	Green Bay	3	Green Bay
Seattle	L.A. Rams	3	L.A. Rams
Dallas	Philadelphia	6.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	31.5	Over
Cincinnati	New Orleans	41	Over
Cleveland	Atlanta	37.5	Over
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	24	Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Kent St.	22.1	23.1	23.3

 

Wednesday	November 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Ohio U	-3.7	-3.3	-2.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.2	-0.1	0.5

 

Thursday	November 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	11.7	13.2	13.5

 

Friday	November 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	Louisville	22.9	22.1	23.2
Boise St.	Fresno St.	-2.0	-2.3	-2.9

 

Saturday	November 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Temple	1.8	2.5	1.5
Rutgers	Michigan	-40.1	-39.9	-42.5
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-1.4	-0.6	-0.8
Boston College	Clemson	-19.6	-19.4	-20.6
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	13.3	12.4	13.2
Tennessee	Kentucky	-13.0	-11.2	-13.3
Massachusetts	BYU	-16.5	-15.3	-16.5
Virginia	Liberty	26.1	26.9	25.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	1.2	1.6	0.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	15.8	16.1	16.0
Central Florida	Navy	30.0	28.3	30.8
West Virginia	TCU	10.6	11.0	11.6
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	4.3	5.0	5.0
Kansas St.	Kansas	7.3	7.4	8.1
Eastern Michigan	Akron	7.4	7.7	7.8
Indiana	Maryland	-1.4	-1.1	-0.7
Connecticut	SMU	-18.9	-18.4	-19.5
Duke	North Carolina	13.9	12.9	13.7
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	16.1	16.7	16.7
Iowa	Northwestern	9.0	9.0	8.9
Cincinnati	South Florida	12.9	13.2	13.9
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	-6.5	-5.4	-7.2
Tulane	East Carolina	15.3	16.1	15.9
Utah	Oregon	9.7	8.1	9.5
Colorado	Washington St.	-9.1	-7.5	-8.2
Marshall	Charlotte	18.1	18.4	18.4
Old Dominion	North Texas	-15.6	-14.6	-16.5
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	8.0	10.0	8.5
Nevada	Colorado St.	12.8	12.2	13.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	32.1	31.9	33.6
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-17.5	-16.1	-18.8
Georgia	Auburn	15.9	14.6	15.6
Penn St.	Wisconsin	8.8	8.8	9.5
Alabama	Mississippi St.	24.1	24.3	24.7
Air Force	New Mexico	14.2	13.7	14.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	19.1	17.4	20.0
Nebraska	Illinois	12.8	12.0	12.8
Minnesota	Purdue	-14.2	-13.9	-14.7
Memphis	Tulsa	12.6	14.5	13.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.1	2.4	4.3
USC	California	3.9	4.5	3.1
Texas Tech	Texas	1.2	1.5	1.0
Arkansas	LSU	-16.4	-18.2	-18.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	35.3	35.7	38.0
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-20.3	-22.5
Louisiana	Georgia St.	9.0	9.2	10.1
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	20.9	19.3	20.9
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	-7.7	-6.4	-8.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	28.6	27.9	30.9
UTSA	Florida Int’l.	-10.3	-9.9	-10.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	21.8	20.2	21.6
UAB	Southern Miss.	17.2	16.8	17.8
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
Arizona St.	UCLA	16.3	15.5	18.6
San Diego St.	UNLV	22.7	21.7	23.1

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0
4	Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4
5	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
6	Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7
7	Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0
8	Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2
11	Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8
12	Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
14	Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9
15	Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6
17	Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3
18	West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0
19	Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6
20	Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4
21	Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2
22	Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0
23	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
24	Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5
26	Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2
27	Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5
28	Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3
29	Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1
30	Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0
31	N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9
32	Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6
33	Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3
34	Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1
35	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
36	Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0
37	Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8
38	Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5
39	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
40	Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2
41	Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0
42	Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0
43	Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2
44	U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7
45	T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9
46	California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9
47	Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1
49	Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
50	Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6
51	Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4
54	Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0
55	Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8
56	Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2
57	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
58	Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
59	Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8
60	Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4
61	Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2
62	Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1
64	BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6
65	U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6
66	Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5
67	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4
68	Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7
69	N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
71	N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5
72	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
74	Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5
75	Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5
76	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
77	U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0
78	Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9
79	Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5
80	Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4
81	Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1
82	Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9
83	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
84	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4
85	SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0
86	Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6
87	Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6
88	Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5
89	Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3
90	Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6
91	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
92	Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9
93	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
94	Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2
95	Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0
96	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5
98	Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4
99	Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0
100	Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8
101	Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9
102	Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7
103	Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8
104	UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6
105	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
106	Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5
107	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
108	Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1
109	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
110	East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2
111	Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7
112	Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5
113	Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0
114	Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5
115	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
116	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
117	Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2
118	Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1
119	U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0
120	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
121	San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7
122	Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8
123	Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3
124	U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3
125	South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7
126	Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8
127	U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0
128	Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6
129	N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6
130	Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6	5-0	8-0
Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8	4-1	5-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	4-1	8-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-2	7-2
East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-5	2-6
Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9	2-3	5-4
Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8	4-1	7-2
Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4	3-2	4-5
SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0	3-2	4-5
Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0	1-4	2-7
Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9	1-4	2-7
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	6-0	9-0
Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8	4-1	7-2
N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9	2-2	6-2
Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0	4-2	7-2
Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7	2-5	4-5
Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1	1-4	4-5
Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2	0-6	2-7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	3-3	5-4
Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1	2-3	5-4
Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6	2-3	6-3
Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0	3-2	4-4
Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7	4-2	6-3
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1	4-1	5-4
N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6	1-5	1-7
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7	5-1	8-1
West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0	5-1	7-1
Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2	4-2	5-3
Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3	4-2	6-3
Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5	3-3	5-4
Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2	2-4	5-4
T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9	2-4	4-5
Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2	1-5	3-6
Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2	3-3	5-4
Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0	6-0	8-1
Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0	5-1	8-1
Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7	5-2	6-3
Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	3-3	6-3
Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	3-3	5-4
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7	0-6	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9	3-3	6-3
Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2	4-2	5-4
Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1	4-2	6-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-4
Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4	1-5	2-7
Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9	1-5	4-5
Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9	2-4	4-5
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	2-3	4-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	3-2	5-3
Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5	5-1	6-3
Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0	4-1	6-3
Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-5	1-8
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-2	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6	6-0	8-1
N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5	3-2	7-2
Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6	4-1	6-3
Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8	2-3	3-5
U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3	2-3	3-6
U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0	1-4	1-8
Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0	0-6	1-9
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	9-0
Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6	x	7-2
BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6	x	4-5
Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7	x	4-4
Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5	4-1	6-3
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4	5-0	8-1
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4	3-2	3-6
Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5	2-3	4-4
Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5	1-4	2-7
Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9	5-0	6-3
Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6	3-3	5-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1	0-6	1-9
Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0	5-0	8-1
Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0	4-1	7-2
Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5	1-4	3-6
Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-4	3-6
Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4	5-0	8-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	4-1	7-2
Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3	3-2	5-4
Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1	3-3	6-5
U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0	0-5	2-7
San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7	1-4	1-8
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	3-3	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5	5-1	8-1
Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2	3-3	6-3
California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9	2-4	5-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-5	2-7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3	4-3	6-3
Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8	3-3	5-4
U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7	4-3	5-4
Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4	4-3	5-5
Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2	2-4	5-4
U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0	2-4	2-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4	6-1	8-1
Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8	1-4	5-4
Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0	5-2	7-2
Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3	4-3	6-3
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	4-3	5-3
Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	6-0	9-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-3	6-3
L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2	4-2	7-2
Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6	3-3	6-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5	3-3	5-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-4	5-4
Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	4-1	6-2
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	5-0	7-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7	4-1	7-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-3	5-4
Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3	1-4	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8	2-3	5-4
UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6	3-2	5-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-3	4-5
South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7	1-4	2-7
Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8	1-4	3-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Fresno St.
3. Utah St.
4. Cincinnati
5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Houston	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	SMU	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Buffalo]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Boston College	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	UL-Monroe
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Kentucky
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	North Carolina St.	West Virginia
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Kansas	4	Iowa St.
Air Force	Army	3	Army
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	3.5	Eastern Michigan
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wyoming	San Jose St.	3.5	Wyoming
Illinois	Minnesota	0.5	Minnesota
Cincinnati	Navy	3	Cincinnati
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Boston College	Virginia Tech	12	Virginia Tech
Michigan	Penn St.	20.5	Penn St.
Missouri	Florida	4	Florida
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	SMU	3.5	Houston
Northwestern	Notre Dame	1	Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	7	Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Northern Illinois	Akron	19.5	Akron
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	0.5	Middle Tennessee
Kentucky	Georgia	4	Georgia
Rice	UTEP	14	UTEP

 

Money Line	Parlays
3 Teams	@ +172
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Kentucky
Notre Dame	Northwestern
3 Teams	@ +125
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida	Missouri
Minnesota	Illinois
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky
4 Teams	@+180
Must Win	Must Lose
Syracuse	Wake Forest
Army	Air Force
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan
Wyoming	San Jose St.
2 Teams	@+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win	Must Lose
Texas A&M	Auburn
Arizona St.	Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	13	Oakland
Chicago	Buffalo	Pk	Chicago
Tampa Bay	Carolina	3.5	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Kansas City	1.5	Kansas City
Washington	Atlanta	12	Atlanta
Green Bay	New England	4.5	New England

 

13-point Teasers	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	18	Detroit
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	16	Pittsburgh
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	15	L.A. Chargers
Houston	Denver	9	Denver
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	32.5	Over
Minnesota	Detroit	35.5	Over
Cleveland	Kansas City	38.5	Over
Miami	N.Y. Jets	32	Over
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	57.5	Under
Washington	Atlanta	33.5	Over
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	35	Over
New England	Green Bay	66.5	Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Miami (O)	8.1	8.5	7.0
Bowling Green	Kent St.	2.5	1.6	2.6

 

Wednesday	October 31
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Ball St.	20.1	19.3	20.4

 

Thursday	November 1
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Ohio U	-2.0	-1.6	-1.9
Akron	Northern Illinois	-2.7	-2.4	-2.7
Central Florida	Temple	15.0	15.2	14.6

 

Friday	November 2
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia	Pittsburgh	7.3	8.3	7.2
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	16.7	15.3	17.2
Arizona	Colorado	4.9	2.6	4.4

 

Saturday	November 3
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	Houston	-9.4	-10.6	-10.8
Purdue	Iowa	-0.3	0.1	-0.2
Georgia St.	Texas St.	8.9	8.0	9.2
Wake Forest	Syracuse	-4.1	-4.7	-5.4
Kentucky	Georgia	-10.3	-8.5	-11.3
Cincinnati	Navy	9.7	9.2	10.5
Ohio St.	Nebraska	25.6	24.9	27.1
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.3	-11.6
Florida	Missouri	1.6	1.3	1.3
Miami (Fla.)	Duke	6.7	7.0	6.7
North Carolina St.	Florida St.	7.7	8.0	7.8
East Carolina	Memphis	-15.1	-16.9	-16.5
Virginia Tech	Boston College	-2.6	-1.3	-2.8
Maryland	Michigan St.	-8.6	-7.8	-8.9
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	-9.2	-9.3	-10.7
Texas	West Virginia	0.9	0.3	0.9
Wisconsin	Rutgers	30.9	29.5	32.0
Northwestern	Notre Dame	-11.5	-10.6	-10.6
Illinois	Minnesota	-8.6	-8.2	-9.4
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	13.0	12.1	13.2
Army	Air Force	12.3	12.5	12.4
South Florida	Tulane	4.7	6.1	4.3
Coastal Carolina	Appalachian St.	-16.8	-16.1	-17.6
Boise St.	BYU	13.1	12.1	12.6
New Mexico	San Diego St.	-11.5	-10.3	-12.2
Wyoming	San Jose St.	19.3	18.4	20.6
Washington St.	California	8.6	9.9	8.6
Southern Miss.	Marshall	-8.5	-8.0	-9.2
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia Southern	-7.1	-8.8	-7.6
Arizona St.	Utah	-6.8	-6.6	-7.8
Oregon	UCLA	13.4	13.6	16.3
Washington	Stanford	9.8	10.2	10.6
Kansas	Iowa St.	-12.2	-12.1	-13.9
Auburn	Texas A&M	4.6	4.8	6.2
Tennessee	Charlotte	24.9	22.8	23.9
Mississippi St.	Louisiana Tech	27.6	23.1	27.2
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	-6.6	-6.7	-6.9
Massachusetts	Liberty	1.2	3.8	1.5
TCU	Kansas St.	8.4	8.5	7.8
Tulsa	Connecticut	17.8	16.6	19.0
Clemson	Louisville	47.2	44.7	48.9
Michigan	Penn St.	9.1	10.6	9.8
Ole Miss	South Carolina	-5.0	-4.4	-4.1
Rice	UTEP	-3.6	-4.0	-4.8
Troy	Louisiana	11.7	10.8	11.9
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	13.3	12.9	14.3
UAB	UTSA	20.7	19.2	20.8
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic	-1.3	1.7	-0.8
LSU	Alabama	-17.5	-15.8	-17.5
UNLV	Fresno St.	-28.7	-26.7	-28.9
Hawaii	Utah St.	-24.1	-23.7	-26.5

Oregon St.

USC

-20.4

-21.1

-21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
New Mexico St.	Alcorn St.	10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3
2	Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1
3	Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8
4	Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7
5	Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0
6	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
7	Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9
8	Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8
9	L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4
10	Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8
11	Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6
12	Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9
13	Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5
14	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
15	Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6
17	Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9
18	Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8
19	West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8
20	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
21	Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1
22	Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9
23	Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9
24	Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4
26	Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1
27	Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0
28	Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9
29	Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7
30	Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5
31	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
32	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
33	N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7
34	Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3
35	Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2
36	Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1
37	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
38	Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6
39	Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6
40	Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6
41	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5
42	Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8
43	U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0
44	Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9
45	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
46	T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2
47	California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7
48	Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9
49	Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1
50	Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0
51	Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0
54	Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0
55	Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7
56	Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7
57	Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4
58	Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1
59	Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9
60	Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9
61	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3
62	Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3
63	Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1
64	Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0
65	BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8
66	Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8
67	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
68	N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5
69	N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2
70	Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2
71	Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1
72	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
73	Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4
74	Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2
75	U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4
76	Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2
77	Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0
78	U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8
79	Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7
80	Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0
81	Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7
82	South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5
83	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4
84	Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1
85	Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8
86	Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7
87	Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3
88	Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2
89	Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0
90	Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5
91	Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4
92	Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1
93	Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4
94	SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3
95	Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2
96	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
97	Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0
98	Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4
99	Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8
100	Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0
101	Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5
102	Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3
103	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
104	Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1
105	Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2
106	Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1
107	Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0
108	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
109	East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2
110	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6
111	U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8
112	Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5
113	Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5
114	Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5
115	Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2
116	Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2
117	W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4
118	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
119	Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4
120	Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2
121	Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1
122	U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1
123	Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8
124	San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4
125	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0
126	Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8
128	Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0
129	N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8
130	Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1	3-1	7-1
South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5	3-1	7-1
East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5	4-0	7-1
Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5	2-2	3-5
Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4	1-3	2-6
SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3	2-2	3-5
Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8	0-4	1-7
AAC Averages	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1	5-0	8-0
Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	6-2
N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7	1-2	5-2
Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6	3-2	6-2
Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9	2-4	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4	1-3	4-4
Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1	0-5	2-6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9	2-3	4-4
Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9	2-2	5-3
Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1	1-3	5-3
Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6	3-1	4-3
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	4-1	6-2
Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0	3-1	4-4
N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5	1-4	1-6
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0	4-1	7-1
West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8	4-1	6-1
Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9	3-2	4-3
Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5	4-1	6-2
Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2	3-2	5-3
Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6	2-3	5-3
T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2	1-4	3-5
Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9	1-4	3-5
Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5	4-2	5-3
Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0	3-2	5-3
Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-2	6-2
Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1	3-2	4-4
Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0	3-2	5-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-3
Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3	1-4	4-4
Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0	1-4	2-6
Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0	1-4	3-5
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7	3-1	5-2
Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3	4-1	5-3
Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2	1-3	3-5
Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0	4-0	6-2
Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4	0-4	1-7
Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8	3-2	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2	3-2	7-2
U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8	5-0	7-1
Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1	4-1	6-2
Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1	2-2	3-4
U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8	0-4	0-8
Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2	0-5	1-8
CUSA Averages	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	8-0
Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1	x	6-2
BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8	x	4-4
Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	3-6
N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8	x	2-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3	4-0	7-1
Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0	3-1	5-3
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4	3-1	3-5
Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4	2-2	4-3
Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4	2-2	4-4
Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7	2-3	4-5
Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0	4-0	5-3
Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2	4-1	6-3
Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0	0-5	1-8
Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5	2-3	3-6
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3	4-0	7-1
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5	4-1	6-2
Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7	1-4	3-5
Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8	1-4	3-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-3	3-5
Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	4-0	7-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	3-1	6-2
Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0	3-2	5-4
U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8	0-4	2-6
Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5	3-2	6-4
San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4	1-3	1-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8	4-2	6-3
Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6	3-2	5-3
Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7	4-1	7-1
Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8	2-3	5-3
California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7	2-3	5-3
Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1	1-4	2-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9	4-2	6-2
U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0	3-3	4-4
Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9	2-3	4-4
Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0	3-3	4-5
Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1	2-3	5-3
U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4	2-3	2-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8	5-1	7-1
Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7	0-4	4-4
Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8	5-1	7-1
Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1	4-2	6-2
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	3-3	4-3
Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1	1-4	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3	5-0	8-0
L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6	2-3	5-3
Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4	3-2	5-3
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	3-1	5-2
Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4	4-0	7-1
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	4-0	6-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-2	5-3
Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2	1-3	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5	1-3	4-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-2	4-4
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0	1-3	2-6
Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0	0-4	2-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
7	MWC	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
10	CUSA	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Fresno St.
3	Houston
4	Utah St.
5	Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	[California]	Utah St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Eastern Michigan]	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Coastal Carolina
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	South Florida	[Arizona]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	Middle Tennessee
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Western Michigan]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Memphis	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Maryland	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Georgia Tech	Minnesota
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Virginia Tech	Tennessee
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Troy
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	Mississippi St.
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Georgia
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Pittsburgh
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Purdue	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	South Carolina
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Kentucky	Houston
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 25-29, 2018

After a successful week of picking, the PiRates are going heavy with 10-point and 13-point teaser selections this week.  Last week, our teasers were 8-2 against the spread, but that still didn’t get us out of the hole we dug the prior couple of weeks.

Leading the way for our Land Sharps last week, Stewed Meat went 6-1 to get back on the plus side of 52.5%, the break even point when selecting games at 11-10 odds.  Once again, all 5 Land Sharps are above the 52.5% level.

When the Sharps each sent in their picks, it looked to us like this is going to be a tough week.  The last week before the Autumn winds of November come into play can be a tough one to call.  It seems like favorites cover better this week than they do in any month in November.  Maybe injury attrition and just plain old bumps and bruises begin to affect the games more, and obviously inclement weather begins to play a part in games.  We actually saw some snow at the Wisconsin-Illinois game last week.  When the temperatures drop into the sub-freezing zone, the ball doesn’t feel the same way it does when it’s 70 degrees.  It becomes harder to throw, catch, kick, or hold onto when being hit by opposing players.

The Land Sharps

1. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 20-13-1 60.6% ROI: 16.8%

Virginia Tech  -2.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Georgia -6.5 vs. Florida

USC -6.5 vs. Arizona St.

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 24-17-0  58.5%  ROI: 12.9%

Arkansas +1.5 vs. Vanderbilt

USC -6.5 vs. Arizona St.

Stanford -3 vs. Washington St.

 

3. Friday Dog 13–Season: 22-16-1  57.9%  ROI: 11.3%

Clemson -16.5 vs. Florida St.

Washington -11.5 vs. California

Oklahoma -24.5 vs. Kansas St.

Notre Dame -23.5 vs. Navy

Colorado -24 vs. Oregon St.

 

4. Dean615–Season: 17-13-1  56.7%  ROI: 8.7%

Notre Dame -23.5 vs. Navy

Iowa +6.5 vs. Penn St.

Boston College +3.5 vs, Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St. -2.5 vs. Purdue

Pittsburgh +3 vs. Duke

Wisconsin -7 vs. Northwestern

Texas A&M +2.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

5. Stewed Meat–25-20-0  55.6%  ROI: 6.7%

Western Michigan -6.5 vs. Toledo

Georgia Southern +8.5 vs. Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina -3.5 vs. Georgia St.

Louisiana +3 vs. Arkansas St.

Florida Int’l. -3.5 vs. Western Kentucky

 

The PiRate Ratings

College 10-point	Teasers	3 Games	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Toledo	Western Michigan	3.5	Western Michigan
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	7.5	Virginia Tech
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	18.5	Georgia Southern
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Vanderbilt	Arkansas	11.5	Arkansas
Duke	Pittsburgh	12.5	Pittsburgh
Utah St.	New Mexico	30.5	New Mexico
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina	Virginia	1	Virginia
Georgia	Florida	17	Florida
Arizona St.	USC	3.5	USC
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Maryland	Illinois	8	Maryland
Washington	California	1.5	Washington
UAB	UTEP	6	UAB
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Penn St.	Iowa	16.5	Iowa
Arkansas St.	Louisiana	13	Louisiana
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	7.5	North Carolina St.
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	12.5	Texas A&M
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	6.5	Florida Int’l.
Arizona	Oregon	0.5	Oregon
College 13-point	Teasers	4 Games	@13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Miami (Fla.)	Boston College	16.5	Boston College
Minnesota	Indiana	10.5	Indiana
Oklahoma St.	Texas	9.5	Texas
San Diego St.	Nevada	16	Nevada
NFL 10-point	Teasers	3 Games	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
N. Y. Jets	Chicago	3	Chicago
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	2	Pittsburgh
N.Y. Giants	Washington	9	Washington
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Kansas City	Denver	Pk	Kansas City
Baltimore	Carolina	12	Carolina
New Orleans	Minnesota	11	Minnesota
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Green Bay	L.A. Rams	1	L.A. Rams
New England	Buffalo	4	New England
Arizona	San Francisco	11	San Francisco
NFL 13-point	Teaser	4 games	@13-10
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
Houston	Miami	31	Over
Kansas City	Denver	41.5	Over
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	63.5	Under
Washington	N.Y. Giants	29	Over

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 9

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Alabama	Troy	-11.2	-10.6	-11.9

 

Thursday	October 25
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Toledo	1.0	1.6	2.2
Ohio U	Ball St.	14.0	13.0	14.9
Georgia Southern	Appalachian St.	-8.3	-8.3	-9.2
Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech	3.9	4.1	4.0
West Virginia	Baylor	12.4	13.2	11.7

 

Friday	October 26
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Miami (Fla.)	1.5	0.3	1.4
Minnesota	Indiana	3.6	3.6	3.3
UCLA	Utah	-13.9	-12.4	-17.0
Colorado St.	Wyoming	-8.0	-7.1	-7.6
Florida Atlantic	Louisiana Tech	5.3	3.7	4.6

 

Saturday	October 27
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Old Dominion	Middle Tennessee	-6.5	-4.5	-7.7
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	-0.5	-1.6	-1.3
Virginia	North Carolina	10.4	11.6	10.3
Akron	Central Michigan	9.6	8.5	9.7
Pittsburgh	Duke	-8.1	-6.9	-8.2
Maryland	Illinois	16.4	15.5	16.5
Louisville	Wake Forest	-3.8	-1.6	-2.4
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-4.3	-3.6	-4.2
Eastern Michigan	Army	-6.0	-5.2	-5.6
Charlotte	Southern Miss.	-4.4	-5.3	-4.5
Kansas	TCU	-10.2	-10.4	-10.7
Connecticut	Massachusetts	-3.1	-4.6	-4.9
Georgia St.	Coastal Carolina	3.0	2.5	3.1
Utah St.	New Mexico	23.4	23.3	24.6
Colorado	Oregon St.	23.7	27.2	26.6
UTEP	UAB	-20.5	-19.9	-21.7
BYU	Northern Illinois	8.2	7.9	9.0
Nevada	San Diego St.	-3.7	-3.7	-4.2
Stanford	Washington St.	7.5	5.9	8.1
USC	Arizona St.	4.8	5.0	4.9
California	Washington	-13.4	-13.9	-15.0
Florida (n)	Georgia	-13.2	-11.7	-13.1
San Jose St.	UNLV	-3.9	-4.5	-5.8
Tulsa	Tulane	-0.4	-1.3	0.6
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	6.9	6.0	7.3
Missouri	Kentucky	5.0	4.5	6.4
South Carolina	Tennessee	16.3	14.7	16.4
Oklahoma St.	Texas	-1.1	-1.6	-0.9
North Texas	Rice	34.8	34.6	37.3
Houston	South Florida	10.0	9.0	10.7
Penn St.	Iowa	7.0	6.2	7.2
Michigan St.	Purdue	5.9	5.0	5.1
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	-6.4	-7.3	-6.2
SMU	Cincinnati	-2.6	-4.6	-3.8
Arkansas	Vanderbilt	2.9	0.2	1.8
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	19.6	19.7	20.8
Louisiana	Arkansas St.	-2.4	-1.6	-2.8
Texas St.	New Mexico St.	1.2	2.2	1.0
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	4.8	4.4	5.6
Air Force	Boise St.	-11.6	-10.4	-11.6
Florida St.	Clemson	-23.9	-22.0	-24.9
Notre Dame	Navy	36.6	31.7	36.0
Arizona	Oregon	-8.6	-10.2	-9.1
Fresno St.	Hawaii	35.5	33.0	37.0

 

FBS vs.	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Nebraska	Bethune-Cookman	36.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

The PiRate Ratings are predictive and not meant to rank teams on what they have done to date.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.6	140.0
2	Clemson	135.5	132.8	136.1	134.8
3	Georgia	128.1	125.0	128.9	127.3
4	Michigan	126.6	125.4	127.2	126.4
5	Notre Dame	124.8	122.0	123.8	123.5
6	Ohio St.	123.2	121.2	123.3	122.6
7	Washington	122.8	120.9	123.9	122.5
8	Oklahoma	121.2	119.9	121.5	120.9
9	Penn St.	121.0	118.4	121.0	120.1
10	L S U	119.8	119.4	121.1	120.1
11	Mississippi St.	118.4	116.1	119.0	117.9
12	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
13	Missouri	116.4	114.9	117.6	116.3
14	Utah	116.3	114.6	117.1	116.0
15	Michigan St.	116.9	114.7	116.2	116.0
16	Miami	116.2	114.8	115.7	115.6
17	Auburn	115.2	114.0	116.8	115.3
18	Wisconsin	115.9	113.4	115.4	114.9
19	Stanford	115.6	113.1	115.8	114.8
20	Florida	114.9	113.3	115.8	114.6
21	Central Florida	114.2	114.4	114.5	114.4
22	Texas A&M	114.5	113.2	114.7	114.1
23	Kentucky	114.4	113.4	114.2	114.0
24	Boston College	114.7	112.1	114.1	113.7
25	Purdue	114.1	112.7	114.1	113.6
26	Texas	113.8	112.4	113.3	113.1
27	Iowa State	113.1	111.5	112.9	112.5
28	N. Carolina St.	112.6	112.1	112.4	112.4
29	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
30	Oregon	112.2	112.0	112.8	112.3
31	Duke	112.9	110.9	112.3	112.1
32	Virginia Tech	112.5	111.5	112.1	112.0
33	West Virginia	112.7	111.7	111.8	112.0
34	S. Carolina	112.5	111.3	112.1	112.0
35	Georgia Tech	111.5	110.4	111.1	111.0
36	Washington St.	111.1	110.2	110.7	110.7
37	Texas Tech	111.3	110.1	110.4	110.6
38	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.8	109.5
39	T C U	110.3	109.1	108.9	109.4
40	Oklahoma St.	109.7	107.8	109.4	108.9
41	U S C	109.5	108.1	109.1	108.9
42	Northwestern	109.1	107.4	108.7	108.4
43	Utah St.	107.6	108.8	108.8	108.4
44	Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.1	108.3
45	Florida St.	108.6	107.8	108.2	108.2
46	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
47	Arizona St.	107.7	106.2	107.1	107.0
48	California	106.4	104.0	105.9	105.4
49	Colorado	104.3	105.3	105.4	105.0
50	Army	103.9	104.6	104.1	104.2
51	Kansas St.	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8
52	Maryland	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8
53	Houston	103.2	104.0	103.7	103.6
54	Ole Miss	103.3	102.8	103.6	103.2
55	Baylor	103.3	101.5	103.0	102.6
56	Temple	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4
57	Memphis	100.8	102.3	101.6	101.6
58	Appalachian St.	100.4	102.2	102.0	101.5
59	Pittsburgh	101.7	101.0	101.1	101.3
60	Vanderbilt	101.0	101.2	101.1	101.1
61	Wake Forest	102.3	100.1	100.1	100.8
62	BYU	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.7
63	San Diego St.	100.0	100.1	100.6	100.2
64	N. Texas	99.1	101.5	99.9	100.1
65	Arizona	100.6	98.9	100.7	100.0
66	Buffalo	99.0	101.0	100.1	100.0
67	Minnesota	100.5	99.4	100.0	100.0
68	N. Carolina	100.2	99.3	99.8	99.8
69	Arkansas	101.0	98.4	99.9	99.8
70	Nebraska	100.6	99.3	99.2	99.7
71	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
72	Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.7	99.2
73	Cincinnati	98.4	100.0	98.8	99.0
74	U C L A	99.5	99.2	97.1	98.6
75	U A B	95.7	98.3	96.6	96.9
76	South Florida	96.2	98.0	96.0	96.7
77	Marshall	95.1	97.7	96.2	96.4
78	Kansas	97.1	95.6	95.2	96.0
79	Toledo	95.5	96.7	95.3	95.8
80	Eastern Michigan	94.9	96.4	95.5	95.6
81	Florida Atlantic	95.2	96.0	95.6	95.6
82	Northern Illinois	95.2	95.9	95.0	95.4
83	Air Force	95.1	95.7	95.2	95.3
84	Louisville	95.5	95.5	94.7	95.2
85	Miami (O)	93.8	95.5	96.1	95.1
86	Ohio U	94.1	95.3	94.8	94.7
87	Western Michigan	93.5	95.2	94.5	94.4
88	Wyoming	94.5	94.5	94.1	94.3
89	Louisiana Tech	92.9	95.3	94.0	94.0
90	Nevada	93.3	93.3	93.4	93.3
91	Tulane	93.1	93.4	92.7	93.1
92	SMU	92.8	92.3	92.0	92.4
93	Middle Tennessee	91.3	92.7	92.2	92.1
94	Navy	91.2	93.3	90.7	91.8
95	Troy	90.8	92.1	92.1	91.7
96	Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.2	89.8	90.8
97	Illinois	91.3	90.7	90.2	90.7
98	Akron	90.1	91.3	90.3	90.6
99	Tulsa	90.3	89.6	90.8	90.2
100	Georgia Southern	89.1	90.9	89.8	89.9
101	Arkansas St.	87.0	88.4	88.5	88.0
102	New Mexico	87.2	88.5	87.1	87.6
103	Southern Miss.	84.4	87.6	85.0	85.7
104	Rutgers	85.9	84.8	84.2	85.0
105	Colorado St.	84.5	85.3	84.4	84.7
106	U N L V	83.4	84.8	83.7	84.0
107	Central Michigan	83.0	85.3	83.2	83.8
108	Ball St.	83.1	85.3	82.9	83.8
109	Old Dominion	82.3	85.7	82.0	83.4
110	Louisiana	82.1	84.3	83.3	83.2
111	East Carolina	83.2	82.9	82.6	82.9
112	UL-Monroe	82.0	82.3	82.4	82.3
113	Oregon St.	83.6	81.1	81.7	82.1
114	W. Kentucky	80.4	83.4	81.1	81.6
115	Liberty	81.4	80.6	81.6	81.2
116	Hawaii	81.0	82.7	79.9	81.2
117	Massachusetts	80.3	82.2	81.0	81.2
118	Georgia St.	78.9	80.8	79.5	79.7
119	Coastal Carolina	78.3	80.8	78.9	79.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.9	78.6	79.1
121	Bowling Green	78.7	79.0	78.7	78.8
122	U T S A	77.2	81.2	77.8	78.8
123	Charlotte	77.5	79.9	78.0	78.5
124	South Alabama	76.6	78.5	77.2	77.4
125	San Jose St.	77.0	77.8	75.4	76.7
126	Connecticut	75.2	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.7	75.9	72.5	73.7
128	N. Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5
129	Texas State	71.6	74.4	71.5	72.5
130	Rice	66.2	68.8	64.6	66.6

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.2	114.4	114.5	114.4	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.2	102.2	102.9	102.4	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.4	100.0	98.8	99.0	2-1	6-1
South Florida	96.2	98.0	96.0	96.7	3-0	7-0
East Carolina	83.2	82.9	82.6	82.9	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.2	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	103.2	104.0	103.7	103.6	3-0	6-1
Memphis	100.8	102.3	101.6	101.6	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.1	93.4	92.7	93.1	1-2	2-5
SMU	92.8	92.3	92.0	92.4	2-1	3-4
Navy	91.2	93.3	90.7	91.8	1-3	2-5
Tulsa	90.3	89.6	90.8	90.2	0-3	1-6
AAC Averages	95.1	95.7	95.0	95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.5	132.8	136.1	134.8	4-0	7-0
Boston College	114.7	112.1	114.1	113.7	2-1	5-2
N. Carolina St.	112.6	112.1	112.4	112.4	1-1	5-1
Syracuse	109.1	107.6	108.1	108.3	2-2	5-2
Florida St.	108.6	107.8	108.2	108.2	2-3	4-3
Wake Forest	102.3	100.1	100.1	100.8	0-3	3-4
Louisville	95.5	95.5	94.7	95.2	0-4	2-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	116.2	114.8	115.7	115.6	2-1	5-2
Duke	112.9	110.9	112.3	112.1	1-2	5-2
Virginia Tech	112.5	111.5	112.1	112.0	3-0	4-2
Georgia Tech	111.5	110.4	111.1	111.0	1-3	3-4
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	3-1	5-2
Pittsburgh	101.7	101.0	101.1	101.3	2-1	3-4
N. Carolina	100.2	99.3	99.8	99.8	1-3	1-5
ACC Averages	110.1	108.9	109.5	109.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.2	119.9	121.5	120.9	3-1	6-1
Texas	113.8	112.4	113.3	113.1	4-0	6-1
Iowa State	113.1	111.5	112.9	112.5	2-2	3-3
West Virginia	112.7	111.7	111.8	112.0	3-1	5-1
Texas Tech	111.3	110.1	110.4	110.6	3-1	5-2
T C U	110.3	109.1	108.9	109.4	1-3	3-4
Oklahoma St.	109.7	107.8	109.4	108.9	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8	1-3	3-4
Baylor	103.3	101.5	103.0	102.6	2-2	4-3
Kansas	97.1	95.6	95.2	96.0	0-4	2-5
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.6	125.4	127.2	126.4	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.2	121.2	123.3	122.6	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	121.0	118.4	121.0	120.1	2-2	5-2
Michigan St.	116.9	114.7	116.2	116.0	3-2	4-3
Maryland	104.6	103.2	103.7	103.8	2-2	4-3
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-4	4-4
Rutgers	85.9	84.8	84.2	85.0	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-1	6-1
Wisconsin	115.9	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	5-2
Purdue	114.1	112.7	114.1	113.6	3-1	4-3
Northwestern	109.1	107.4	108.7	108.4	4-1	4-3
Minnesota	100.5	99.4	100.0	100.0	0-4	3-4
Nebraska	100.6	99.3	99.2	99.7	1-4	1-6
Illinois	91.3	90.7	90.2	90.7	1-3	3-4
Big Ten Averages	109.0	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.1	97.7	96.2	96.4	3-1	5-2
Florida Atlantic	95.2	96.0	95.6	95.6	1-2	3-4
Middle Tennessee	91.3	92.7	92.2	92.1	3-1	4-3
Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.2	89.8	90.8	3-0	5-2
Old Dominion	82.3	85.7	82.0	83.4	1-4	2-6
W. Kentucky	80.4	83.4	81.1	81.6	0-3	1-6
Charlotte	77.5	79.9	78.0	78.5	2-2	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.1	101.5	99.9	100.1	2-2	6-2
U A B	95.7	98.3	96.6	96.9	4-0	6-1
Louisiana Tech	92.9	95.3	94.0	94.0	3-1	5-2
Southern Miss.	84.4	87.6	85.0	85.7	2-1	3-3
U T S A	77.2	81.2	77.8	78.8	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.7	75.9	72.5	73.7	0-3	0-7
Rice	66.2	68.8	64.6	66.6	0-4	1-7
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.8	122.0	123.8	123.5	x	7-0
Army	103.9	104.6	104.1	104.2	x	5-2
BYU	100.4	100.9	101.0	100.7	x	4-3
Liberty	81.4	80.6	81.6	81.2	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.3	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	2-6
N. Mexico St.	72.9	74.7	73.0	73.5	x	2-6
Indep. Averages	93.9	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.0	101.0	100.1	100.0	4-0	7-1
Miami (O)	93.8	95.5	96.1	95.1	3-1	3-5
Ohio U	94.1	95.3	94.8	94.7	2-1	4-3
Akron	90.1	91.3	90.3	90.6	1-2	3-3
Kent St.	78.7	79.9	78.6	79.1	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	78.7	79.0	78.7	78.8	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	95.5	96.7	95.3	95.8	1-2	3-4
Eastern Michigan	94.9	96.4	95.5	95.6	2-3	4-4
Northern Illinois	95.2	95.9	95.0	95.4	4-0	4-3
Western Michigan	93.5	95.2	94.5	94.4	4-0	6-2
Central Michigan	83.0	85.3	83.2	83.8	0-4	1-7
Ball St.	83.1	85.3	82.9	83.8	2-2	3-5
MAC Averages	90.0	91.4	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.8	109.5	3-1	5-2
Utah St.	107.6	108.8	108.8	108.4	3-0	6-1
Air Force	95.1	95.7	95.2	95.3	1-3	3-4
Wyoming	94.5	94.5	94.1	94.3	0-4	2-6
New Mexico	87.2	88.5	87.1	87.6	1-2	3-4
Colorado St.	84.5	85.3	84.4	84.7	2-2	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	3-0	6-1
San Diego St.	100.0	100.1	100.6	100.2	3-0	6-1
Nevada	93.3	93.3	93.4	93.3	2-2	4-4
U N L V	83.4	84.8	83.7	84.0	0-3	2-5
Hawaii	81.0	82.7	79.9	81.2	3-1	6-3
San Jose St.	77.0	77.8	75.4	76.7	0-3	0-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.8	120.9	123.9	122.5	4-1	6-2
Stanford	115.6	113.1	115.8	114.8	3-1	5-2
Oregon	112.2	112.0	112.8	112.3	2-2	5-2
Washington St.	111.1	110.2	110.7	110.7	3-1	6-1
California	106.4	104.0	105.9	105.4	1-3	4-3
Oregon St.	83.6	81.1	81.7	82.1	0-4	1-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.3	114.6	117.1	116.0	3-2	5-2
U S C	109.5	108.1	109.1	108.9	3-2	4-3
Arizona St.	107.7	106.2	107.1	107.0	1-3	3-4
Colorado	104.3	105.3	105.4	105.0	2-2	5-2
Arizona	100.6	98.9	100.7	100.0	2-3	3-5
U C L A	99.5	99.2	97.1	98.6	2-2	2-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.1	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.1	125.0	128.9	127.3	4-1	6-1
Missouri	116.4	114.9	117.6	116.3	0-3	4-3
Florida	114.9	113.3	115.8	114.6	4-1	6-1
Kentucky	114.4	113.4	114.2	114.0	4-1	6-1
S. Carolina	112.5	111.3	112.1	112.0	2-3	3-3
Vanderbilt	101.0	101.2	101.1	101.1	0-4	3-5
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.7	99.2	1-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.6	140.0	5-0	8-0
L S U	119.8	119.4	121.1	120.1	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	118.4	116.1	119.0	117.9	1-3	4-3
Auburn	115.2	114.0	116.8	115.3	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	114.5	113.2	114.7	114.1	3-1	5-2
Ole Miss	103.3	102.8	103.6	103.2	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	101.0	98.4	99.9	99.8	0-4	2-6
SEC Averages	114.2	112.9	114.6	113.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	100.4	102.2	102.0	101.5	3-0	5-1
Troy	90.8	92.1	92.1	91.7	3-0	5-2
Georgia Southern	89.1	90.9	89.8	89.9	3-0	6-1
Georgia St.	78.9	80.8	79.5	79.7	1-2	2-5
Coastal Carolina	78.3	80.8	78.9	79.3	1-2	4-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.0	88.4	88.5	88.0	1-2	4-3
Louisiana	82.1	84.3	83.3	83.2	1-2	3-4
UL-Monroe	82.0	82.3	82.4	82.3	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.6	78.5	77.2	77.4	1-2	2-5
Texas State	71.6	74.4	71.5	72.5	0-4	1-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.7	85.5	84.5	84.6

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.2	112.9	114.6	113.9
2	ACC	110.1	108.9	109.5	109.5
3	B12	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.0	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.5	106.1	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	95.1	95.7	95.0	95.3
7	IND	93.9	94.2	94.1	94.1
8	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
9	MAC	90.0	91.4	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.7	85.5	84.5	84.6

Top 5 Group of 5

1	Central Florida
2	South Florida
3	Fresno St.
4	San Diego St.
5	Houston

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Utah St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	UL-Monroe
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	[Middle Tennessee]	[Coastal Carolina]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Colorado]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	North Texas	[BYU]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Toledo]	Indiana
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Duke	[Troy]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Utah
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Purdue	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Iowa	Fresno St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Texas
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Key Games This Week

There may not be as many marquee games this week as there were last week, but because the season is now past the halfway mark, regular games begin to have more meaning as teams with no championship hopes look to secure bowl bids.

There are a number of games where the winner might greatly improve bowl chances and that could be bowl elimination games for the loser.  Let’s take a quick look at some excellent games on this week’s schedule.

First, on Thursday night, you get five different games, and there is no World Series game, as the teams will travel across the land that day.

Thursday

Western Michigan vs. Toledo: The Broncos are now the favorite to win the West Division and maybe run the table the rest of the way, while Toledo is looking like it could be team #78 out of 78 bowl teams.  The MAC looks like it will have six bowl eligible teams, but five will only get bowl bids.  Toledo and Ohio may be competing for that fifth spot.

Ohio U vs. Ball St.: This is the other half of the MAC equation.  If the Bobcats falter in this game, then they are looking at 5-7.  It’s a must-win game for Ball St., but the schedule does not give them enough winnable games in November to recover from 3-5 to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian St.: The Sun Belt East Division title may be decided Thursday night.  After trying the more conventional style of play with total failure, GSU has gone back to what worked for them for many years–the spread triple option, and it is working.  Appy State enters this game looking like a team that still holds out hope for a Peach Bowl bid if UCF, USF, Houston, and Fresno State lose games down the stretch and they run the table.  This may be the best game of the night and one you will want to watch.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is running out of time to get to six wins with a closing stretch of games against Miami, Virginia, and Georgia.  If Paul Johnson’s team is to finish 3-2, it almost has to include an upset win here.  Virginia Tech finishes with four home games in their final five, and the Hokies have the inside track to the Coastal Division flag.

West Virginia vs. Baylor: West Virginia’s playoff chances probably ended with the loss to Iowa St., but if the Mountaineers run the table, a Sugar Bowl bid is likely their reward.  Baylor needs two wins in their final five games to return to a bowl after a brief absence, and to pull off the trick, the Bears are going to have to upset two teams, because they will be underdogs in all five games.

Friday

Boston College vs. Miami (Fla.): Both teams are still alive for the Camping World bid, but most likely, these two are competing for one of the #3 priority bowls.

Minnesota vs. Indiana: This is a pure bowl elimination game.  The winner stays alive, and the loser is done.

UCLA vs. Utah: The Bruins have won back-to-back games after starting 0-5.  It’s been done before, where a team loses multiple games to start the season and comes back to earn a bowl bid.  A couple years ago, Miami of Ohio started 0-6 and finished 6-6.  Can Chip Kelly work his magic?  If UCLA beats Utah, the Bruins would move into a first place tie in the Pac-12 South.  Of course, if Utah wins, the Utes make a big move forward toward winning the South.  Stay up late and watch this game.

Saturday

Syracuse vs. North Carolina St: After the Wolf Pack’s drubbing at the hands of Clemson, they have no room for error left in the remaining part of their schedule if they want to contend for a New Year’s Six Bowl game.  Not having the West Virginia game on their schedule, they must run the table and finish 11-1.  Syracuse is one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.  This game should be interesting.

Pittsburgh vs. Duke: Pitt has to win this game, or it’s no bowl game for the Panthers in 2018.  Duke is out of the ACC Coastal Division title race, but they need just one more win to become bowl eligible.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin: Four of the seven teams in the Big Ten West Division have one conference loss, and these are two of them.  Neither team is playing as well as predicted this year, as they tend to win ugly.  Northwestern has been forced to come from behind two weeks in a row, including their most previous game against Rutgers.  This was the closest game for the Badgers last year when they ran the table to the Big Ten Championship Game, and it should be close and low-scoring this year.

Eastern Michigan vs. Army: What?  You say this game is a nothing game?  Think again.  These are two teams that will still be playing after December 15.  Army has a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 1996.  EMU needs to win three more games to clinch its second winning season in the last three years.  Expect the scoreboard to get a lot of action in this one.

Nevada vs. San Diego St.: San Diego State barely beat winless San Jose State, while Nevada won big at Hawaii.  This game looks more like a tossup now than it did a couple weeks ago.  SDSU is still in the Mountain West West Division race with Fresno St., but the Aztecs are looking like a runner-up at the moment.

Stanford vs. Washington St.: The Pirate is not a PiRate, but Mike Leach has done an amazing job in Pullman.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Cougars, but after beating Oregon, Washington State is a co-favorite to win the Pac-12 North.  One of the other two co-favorites is their opponent Saturday, and this game will be played on the Farm, where Stanford rarely loses these days.  The winner is in great shape to become the North Division representative in the conference title game.

California vs. Washington: This is an excellent opportunity for the Bears to pick up a statement win at home.  Washington has not been the team the so-called experts thought they would be, and their chances to win the North Division title are no better than their arch-rival’s, and Stanford’s.  A Cal upset comes close to guaranteeing the Golden Bears a 6-6 season and bowl bid.

Florida vs. Georgia: The winner becomes the heavy favorite to get the chance to be embarrassed by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Both teams had an open date to prepare for this game, and both teams’ coaching staffs can prepare excellent game plans.  Expect this game to be low scoring, and the winner may not emerge until the final five to seven minutes.  The winner is the leading contender for the Sugar Bowl, while the loser could still nab a Peach Bowl bid.

Mississippi St. vs. Texas A&M: Texas A&M has lost to Clemson and Alabama, so their 5-2 record is deceiving.  Jimbo Fisher has done an incredible job in his first year at A&M, and if he can lead his team to a road victory, the Aggies might become the favorite to be number two overall in this league and even get into the discussion for a Sugar Bowl bid.

Missouri vs. Kentucky: Kentucky’s incredible 5-0 start hit a snag when the Wildcats’ one-dimensional offense could do nothing against Texas A&M.  Then, it continued to sputter against a Vanderbilt team that is 0-4 in conference play.  Missouri’s defense won’t be able to shut down the Wildcats’ offense, but they still may be able to outscore the ‘Cats and end Kentucky’s chances of winning the SEC East.  Missouri is most likely looking at a Liberty or Music City Bowl bid unless they run the table and finish 9-3.

Oklahoma St. vs. Texas: 2005 was 13 seasons ago.  That’s the last time Oklahoma State failed to earn a bowl bid or end the season with a winning record.  The Cowboys are starting to look like a man on a safari that just put his right foot in quicksand.  A loss at home to Texas will square OSU’s record at 4-4 with some tough November games and most likely a 5-7 record.  Texas now has a legitimate chance to sneak into the Playoffs if the Longhorns can run the table and finish 12-1.  After this game, the toughest remaining games would be home games.  A rematch with the Sooners or possibly with the Mountaineers could get the Longhorns into the #4 position.

Houston vs. South Florida: USF has fiddled its way to a 7-0 record, but if the Bulls start slow this week, they will be 7-1 on Sunday.  Houston is on a roll and almost for sure will win the AAC West Division title.  If they can knock off USF and then beat Central Florida in the Championship Game, the Cougars could be Fiesta-bowl bound.  A loss along the way probably keeps them in an in-state bowl in December.  If USF should put together a four-quarter effort and win this game, then the Bulls are going to gain enough confidence to knock off UCF in Tampa in the regular season finale.

Penn St. vs. Iowa: Three weeks ago, this would have been considered a cinch win for Penn St., but the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and then Michigan State.  They just barely survived a trip to Indiana.  Iowa has two big road games back-to-back starting with this one and then continuing with Purdue in West Lafayette the following week.  The Hawkeyes look like the best overall team in the Big Ten West, but it will be close to impossible for Kirk Ferentz’s team to win both of the two road games.

Michigan St. vs. Purdue: Michigan St. might play its best game of the year this week.  The team has got to be feeling quite upset after they did absolutely nothing against Michigan.  Purdue is going to bounce somewhat after pulling off the big win over Ohio State.  Just look at what happened to Iowa last year the week after they slaughtered Ohio State; Wisconsin slaughtered them.  We don’t think Sparty  can slaughter any Big Ten team remaining on their schedule, and that includes a home game with Rutgers.  But, they have just enough talent and a huge chip on their shoulders, so this game should be much closer than expected.

Louisiana vs. Arkansas St.: The Sun Belt West Division is totally up for grabs entering the last five weeks of the regular season, as four of the five teams have two conference losses.  The winner of this game takes a giant leg up on the rest of the contenders and also comes very close to cinching bowl eligibility.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Believe it or not, but both teams still have a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as the number two seed.  This is a contrast of two coaches on the rise for different reasons.  Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is moving up to the top tier of the coaching pyramid for the next big-time opening.  He could be coaching at a national power in the next couple of years.  Kliff Kingsbury was almost one foot out the door in Lubbock last month, but wins over TCU and Oklahoma State have him back on somewhat solid ground, as the Red Raiders need just one more win to clinch a bowl bid.

Air Force vs. Boise St.: The Falcons need to go 3-2 in to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is sneaky and tricky the rest of the way.  The two hardest remaining games are this one and the next one at Army.  Losses in both games means AFA would have to win their last three to become bowl eligible.  Boise State has an uphill climb to make the MWC Championship Game, as they are a game behind Utah State, and they must still play Fresno State.  A loss here gives the Mountain Division title to Utah State.

Florida St. vs. Clemson: This game has such a history, but history is probably all Florida State fans can hold onto in this game.  Clemson should win by double digits in this one, but stranger things have happened.  Clemson has lost games as big favorites the prior two years, and this looks like a trap game.  The Seminoles must upset somebody in order to become bowl eligible.

Fresno St. vs. Hawaii: This game won’t end until the wee hours of the morning on the East Coast, so a lot of the Eastern elite press will not give it much notice.  However, you can stay up and watch it on ESPN2.  Fresno State is like a horse with a great closing run that is sitting 7 lengths off the pace in a Stakes race but has been on the rail saving ground since the start.  The Bulldogs lost early at Minnesota and have a win at UCLA.  They sit at 6-1, and there isn’t an opponent left on the schedule they cannot beat.  This race is shaping up so that Jeff Tedford’s team could go 12-1.  Now, it is up to those speed horses up front to fall back to the pack.  If USF, UCF, and Houston lose another game this year and FSU wins out, then the Bulldogs should earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.  Hawaii should not give Fresno much of a challenge.