The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Syracuse Louisville 10.5 Syracuse
Texas A&M Ole Miss 1.5 Texas A&M
Kansas St. Kansas 22 Kansas

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
West Virginia TCU 1.5 WVU
Eastern Michigan Akron 3 EMU
Duke North Carolina Pk Duke

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arizona St. UCLA 2.5 Arizona St.
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 9.5 Oklahoma
Purdue Minnesota 2.5 Purdue

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulane East Carolina 3.5 Tulane
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 10 Florida Atlantic
Georgia Auburn 24.5 Auburn

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cinciannati East Carolina 2.5 Cincinnati
Texas Tech Texas 8.5 Texas
UAB Southern Miss. 2.5 UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 4 NC St.
Florida South Carolina 20 S. Car.
BYU Massachusetts 27 UMass
Troy Georgia Southern 14.5 Ga. Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Kentucky 7 Kentucky
Colorado Washington St. 7 Washington St.
Louisiana Georgia St. 1 Louisiana
South Alabama UL-Monroe 7.5 UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win Must Lose
Ohio U Miami (O)
Northern Illinois Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Florida
Kansas Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Chicago 6.5 Chicago
Kansas City Arizona 3.5 Kansas City
Tennessee New England 6.5 New England
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10 Indianapolis

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Miami Green Bay 3 Green Bay
Seattle L.A. Rams 3 L.A. Rams
Dallas Philadelphia 6.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Cincinnati New Orleans 41 Over
Cleveland Atlanta 37.5 Over
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 24 Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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November 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Kent St. 22.1 23.1 23.3

 

Wednesday November 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Ohio U -3.7 -3.3 -2.3
Northern Illinois Toledo 0.2 -0.1 0.5

 

Thursday November 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 11.7 13.2 13.5

 

Friday November 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse Louisville 22.9 22.1 23.2
Boise St. Fresno St. -2.0 -2.3 -2.9

 

Saturday November 10
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Temple 1.8 2.5 1.5
Rutgers Michigan -40.1 -39.9 -42.5
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
Boston College Clemson -19.6 -19.4 -20.6
Texas A&M Ole Miss 13.3 12.4 13.2
Tennessee Kentucky -13.0 -11.2 -13.3
Massachusetts BYU -16.5 -15.3 -16.5
Virginia Liberty 26.1 26.9 25.1
Georgia Southern Troy 1.2 1.6 0.3
Iowa St. Baylor 15.8 16.1 16.0
Central Florida Navy 30.0 28.3 30.8
West Virginia TCU 10.6 11.0 11.6
Georgia Tech Miami (Fla.) 4.3 5.0 5.0
Kansas St. Kansas 7.3 7.4 8.1
Eastern Michigan Akron 7.4 7.7 7.8
Indiana Maryland -1.4 -1.1 -0.7
Connecticut SMU -18.9 -18.4 -19.5
Duke North Carolina 13.9 12.9 13.7
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 16.1 16.7 16.7
Iowa Northwestern 9.0 9.0 8.9
Cincinnati South Florida 12.9 13.2 13.9
Coastal Carolina Arkansas St. -6.5 -5.4 -7.2
Tulane East Carolina 15.3 16.1 15.9
Utah Oregon 9.7 8.1 9.5
Colorado Washington St. -9.1 -7.5 -8.2
Marshall Charlotte 18.1 18.4 18.4
Old Dominion North Texas -15.6 -14.6 -16.5
Central Michigan Bowling Green 8.0 10.0 8.5
Nevada Colorado St. 12.8 12.2 13.3
Stanford Oregon St. 32.1 31.9 33.6
UTEP Middle Tennessee -17.5 -16.1 -18.8
Georgia Auburn 15.9 14.6 15.6
Penn St. Wisconsin 8.8 8.8 9.5
Alabama Mississippi St. 24.1 24.3 24.7
Air Force New Mexico 14.2 13.7 14.9
Missouri Vanderbilt 19.1 17.4 20.0
Nebraska Illinois 12.8 12.0 12.8
Minnesota Purdue -14.2 -13.9 -14.7
Memphis Tulsa 12.6 14.5 13.2
Florida South Carolina 3.1 2.4 4.3
USC California 3.9 4.5 3.1
Texas Tech Texas 1.2 1.5 1.0
Arkansas LSU -16.4 -18.2 -18.7
Utah St. San Jose St. 35.3 35.7 38.0
Texas St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -20.3 -22.5
Louisiana Georgia St. 9.0 9.2 10.1
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 20.9 19.3 20.9
South Alabama UL-Monroe -7.7 -6.4 -8.0
Louisiana Tech Rice 28.6 27.9 30.9
UTSA Florida Int’l. -10.3 -9.9 -10.4
Notre Dame Florida St. 21.8 20.2 21.6
UAB Southern Miss. 17.2 16.8 17.8
Michigan St. Ohio St. -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Arizona St. UCLA 16.3 15.5 18.6
San Diego St. UNLV 22.7 21.7 23.1

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0
4 Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4
5 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
6 Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7
7 Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0
8 Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2
11 Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8
12 Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
14 Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9
15 Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6
17 Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3
18 West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0
19 Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6
20 Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4
21 Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2
22 Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0
23 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
24 Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5
26 Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2
27 Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5
28 Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3
29 Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1
30 Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0
31 N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9
32 Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6
33 Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3
34 Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1
35 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
36 Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0
37 Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8
38 Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5
39 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
40 Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2
41 Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0
42 Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0
43 Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2
44 U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7
45 T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9
46 California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9
47 Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1
49 Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
50 Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6
51 Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4
54 Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0
55 Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8
56 Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2
57 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
58 Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
59 Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8
60 Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4
61 Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2
62 Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1
64 BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6
65 U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6
66 Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5
67 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4
68 Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7
69 N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
71 N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5
72 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
74 Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5
75 Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5
76 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
77 U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0
78 Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9
79 Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5
80 Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4
81 Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1
82 Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9
83 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
84 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4
85 SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0
86 Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6
87 Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6
88 Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5
89 Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3
90 Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6
91 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
92 Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9
93 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
94 Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2
95 Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0
96 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5
98 Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4
99 Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0
100 Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8
101 Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9
102 Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7
103 Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8
104 UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6
105 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
106 Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5
107 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
108 Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1
109 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
110 East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2
111 Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7
112 Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5
113 Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0
114 Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5
115 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
116 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
117 Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2
118 Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1
119 U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0
120 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
121 San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7
122 Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8
123 Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3
124 U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3
125 South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7
126 Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8
127 U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0
128 Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6
129 N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6
130 Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6 5-0 8-0
Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8 4-1 5-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 4-1 8-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-2 7-2
East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-5 2-6
Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9 2-3 5-4
Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8 4-1 7-2
Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4 3-2 4-5
SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0 3-2 4-5
Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0 1-4 2-7
Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9 1-4 2-7
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 6-0 9-0
Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8 4-1 7-2
N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9 2-2 6-2
Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0 4-2 7-2
Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 2-5 4-5
Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1 1-4 4-5
Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2 0-6 2-7
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 3-3 5-4
Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1 2-3 5-4
Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6 2-3 6-3
Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 3-2 4-4
Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7 4-2 6-3
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1 4-1 5-4
N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6 1-5 1-7
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7 5-1 8-1
West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0 5-1 7-1
Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2 4-2 5-3
Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3 4-2 6-3
Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5 3-3 5-4
Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2 2-4 5-4
T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9 2-4 4-5
Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2 1-5 3-6
Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2 3-3 5-4
Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1 1-5 3-6
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0 6-0 8-1
Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0 5-1 8-1
Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7 5-2 6-3
Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 3-3 6-3
Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 3-3 5-4
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7 0-6 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9 3-3 6-3
Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2 4-2 5-4
Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1 4-2 6-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-4
Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4 1-5 2-7
Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9 1-5 4-5
Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9 2-4 4-5
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 2-3 4-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 3-2 5-3
Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5 5-1 6-3
Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0 4-1 6-3
Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-5 1-8
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-2 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6 6-0 8-1
N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5 3-2 7-2
Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6 4-1 6-3
Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8 2-3 3-5
U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3 2-3 3-6
U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0 1-4 1-8
Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0 0-6 1-9
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 9-0
Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6 x 7-2
BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6 x 4-5
Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7 x 4-4
Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5 4-1 6-3
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4 5-0 8-1
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4 3-2 3-6
Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5 2-3 4-4
Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5 1-4 2-7
Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7 3-2 5-4
Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9 5-0 6-3
Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6 3-3 5-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1 0-6 1-9
Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0 5-0 8-1
Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0 4-1 7-2
Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5 1-4 3-6
Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-4 3-6
Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4 5-0 8-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 4-1 7-2
Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3 3-2 5-4
Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1 3-3 6-5
U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0 0-5 2-7
San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7 1-4 1-8
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 3-3 5-4
Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5 5-1 8-1
Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2 3-3 6-3
California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9 2-4 5-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-5 2-7
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3 4-3 6-3
Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8 3-3 5-4
U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7 4-3 5-4
Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4 4-3 5-5
Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2 2-4 5-4
U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0 2-4 2-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4 6-1 8-1
Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8 1-4 5-4
Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0 5-2 7-2
Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3 4-3 6-3
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 4-3 5-3
Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5 1-4 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 6-0 9-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-3 6-3
L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2 4-2 7-2
Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6 3-3 6-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5 3-3 5-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-4 5-4
Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 4-1 6-2
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 5-0 7-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7 4-1 7-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-3 5-4
Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3 1-4 2-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8 2-3 5-4
UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6 3-2 5-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-3 4-5
South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7 1-4 2-7
Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8 1-4 3-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Fresno St.
  3. Utah St.
  4. Cincinnati
  5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Houston [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 SMU [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Buffalo]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Boston College Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. UL-Monroe
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Central Florida Kentucky
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large North Carolina St. West Virginia
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Iowa St. Kansas 4 Iowa St.
Air Force Army 3 Army
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3.5 Eastern Michigan
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wyoming San Jose St. 3.5 Wyoming
Illinois Minnesota 0.5 Minnesota
Cincinnati Navy 3 Cincinnati
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Boston College Virginia Tech 12 Virginia Tech
Michigan Penn St. 20.5 Penn St.
Missouri Florida 4 Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston SMU 3.5 Houston
Northwestern Notre Dame 1 Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 7 Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Northern Illinois Akron 19.5 Akron
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 0.5 Middle Tennessee
Kentucky Georgia 4 Georgia
Rice UTEP 14 UTEP

 

Money Line Parlays
3 Teams @ +172
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Kentucky
Notre Dame Northwestern
3 Teams @ +125
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Missouri
Minnesota Illinois
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky
4 Teams @+180
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Wake Forest
Army Air Force
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan
Wyoming San Jose St.
2 Teams @+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win Must Lose
Texas A&M Auburn
Arizona St. Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Oakland 13 Oakland
Chicago Buffalo Pk Chicago
Tampa Bay Carolina 3.5 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Kansas City 1.5 Kansas City
Washington Atlanta 12 Atlanta
Green Bay New England 4.5 New England

 

13-point Teasers 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Detroit 18 Detroit
Baltimore Pittsburgh 16 Pittsburgh
Seattle L.A. Chargers 15 L.A. Chargers
Houston Denver 9 Denver
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
San Francisco Oakland 32.5 Over
Minnesota Detroit 35.5 Over
Cleveland Kansas City 38.5 Over
Miami N.Y. Jets 32 Over
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Baltimore Pittsburgh 57.5 Under
Washington Atlanta 33.5 Over
Seattle L.A. Chargers 35 Over
New England Green Bay 66.5 Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 30
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Miami (O) 8.1 8.5 7.0
Bowling Green Kent St. 2.5 1.6 2.6

 

Wednesday October 31
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Toledo Ball St. 20.1 19.3 20.4

 

Thursday November 1
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Ohio U -2.0 -1.6 -1.9
Akron Northern Illinois -2.7 -2.4 -2.7
Central Florida Temple 15.0 15.2 14.6

 

Friday November 2
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Virginia Pittsburgh 7.3 8.3 7.2
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 16.7 15.3 17.2
Arizona Colorado 4.9 2.6 4.4

 

Saturday November 3
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU Houston -9.4 -10.6 -10.8
Purdue Iowa -0.3 0.1 -0.2
Georgia St. Texas St. 8.9 8.0 9.2
Wake Forest Syracuse -4.1 -4.7 -5.4
Kentucky Georgia -10.3 -8.5 -11.3
Cincinnati Navy 9.7 9.2 10.5
Ohio St. Nebraska 25.6 24.9 27.1
North Carolina Georgia Tech -11.4 -11.3 -11.6
Florida Missouri 1.6 1.3 1.3
Miami (Fla.) Duke 6.7 7.0 6.7
North Carolina St. Florida St. 7.7 8.0 7.8
East Carolina Memphis -15.1 -16.9 -16.5
Virginia Tech Boston College -2.6 -1.3 -2.8
Maryland Michigan St. -8.6 -7.8 -8.9
Texas Tech Oklahoma -9.2 -9.3 -10.7
Texas West Virginia 0.9 0.3 0.9
Wisconsin Rutgers 30.9 29.5 32.0
Northwestern Notre Dame -11.5 -10.6 -10.6
Illinois Minnesota -8.6 -8.2 -9.4
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 13.0 12.1 13.2
Army Air Force 12.3 12.5 12.4
South Florida Tulane 4.7 6.1 4.3
Coastal Carolina Appalachian St. -16.8 -16.1 -17.6
Boise St. BYU 13.1 12.1 12.6
New Mexico San Diego St. -11.5 -10.3 -12.2
Wyoming San Jose St. 19.3 18.4 20.6
Washington St. California 8.6 9.9 8.6
Southern Miss. Marshall -8.5 -8.0 -9.2
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia Southern -7.1 -8.8 -7.6
Arizona St. Utah -6.8 -6.6 -7.8
Oregon UCLA 13.4 13.6 16.3
Washington Stanford 9.8 10.2 10.6
Kansas Iowa St. -12.2 -12.1 -13.9
Auburn Texas A&M 4.6 4.8 6.2
Tennessee Charlotte 24.9 22.8 23.9
Mississippi St. Louisiana Tech 27.6 23.1 27.2
Baylor Oklahoma St. -6.6 -6.7 -6.9
Massachusetts Liberty 1.2 3.8 1.5
TCU Kansas St. 8.4 8.5 7.8
Tulsa Connecticut 17.8 16.6 19.0
Clemson Louisville 47.2 44.7 48.9
Michigan Penn St. 9.1 10.6 9.8
Ole Miss South Carolina -5.0 -4.4 -4.1
Rice UTEP -3.6 -4.0 -4.8
Troy Louisiana 11.7 10.8 11.9
Arkansas St. South Alabama 13.3 12.9 14.3
UAB UTSA 20.7 19.2 20.8
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic -1.3 1.7 -0.8
LSU Alabama -17.5 -15.8 -17.5
UNLV Fresno St. -28.7 -26.7 -28.9
Hawaii Utah St. -24.1 -23.7 -26.5
Oregon St. USC -20.4 -21.1 -21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
New Mexico St. Alcorn St. 10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3
2 Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1
3 Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8
4 Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7
5 Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0
6 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
7 Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9
8 Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8
9 L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4
10 Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8
11 Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6
12 Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9
13 Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5
14 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
15 Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6
17 Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9
18 Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8
19 West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8
20 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
21 Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1
22 Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9
23 Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9
24 Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4
26 Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1
27 Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0
28 Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9
29 Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7
30 Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5
31 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
32 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
33 N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7
34 Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3
35 Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2
36 Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1
37 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
38 Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6
39 Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6
40 Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6
41 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5
42 Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8
43 U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0
44 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9
45 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
46 T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2
47 California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7
48 Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9
49 Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1
50 Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0
51 Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0
54 Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0
55 Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7
56 Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7
57 Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4
58 Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1
59 Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9
60 Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9
61 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3
62 Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3
63 Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1
64 Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0
65 BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8
66 Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8
67 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
68 N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5
69 N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2
70 Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2
71 Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1
72 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
73 Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4
74 Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2
75 U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4
76 Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2
77 Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0
78 U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8
79 Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7
80 Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0
81 Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7
82 South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5
83 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4
84 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1
85 Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8
86 Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7
87 Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3
88 Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2
89 Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0
90 Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5
91 Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4
92 Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1
93 Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4
94 SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3
95 Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2
96 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
97 Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0
98 Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4
99 Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8
100 Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0
101 Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5
102 Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3
103 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
104 Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1
105 Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2
106 Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1
107 Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0
108 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
109 East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2
110 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6
111 U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8
112 Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5
113 Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5
114 Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5
115 Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2
116 Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2
117 W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4
118 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
119 Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4
120 Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2
121 Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1
122 U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1
123 Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8
124 San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4
125 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0
126 Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8
128 Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0
129 N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8
130 Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.5 102.5 103.2 102.7 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.5 100.1 98.9 99.1 3-1 7-1
South Florida 95.1 96.8 94.7 95.5 3-1 7-1
East Carolina 83.5 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.1 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 104.0 104.9 104.7 104.5 4-0 7-1
Memphis 101.1 102.6 101.9 101.9 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.4 93.7 93.4 93.5 2-2 3-5
Navy 91.8 93.8 91.4 92.4 1-3 2-6
SMU 92.7 92.2 91.9 92.3 2-2 3-5
Tulsa 90.0 89.3 90.1 89.8 0-4 1-7
AAC Averages 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 137.7 135.1 138.5 137.1 5-0 8-0
Boston College 115.8 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 6-2
N. Carolina St. 111.1 110.4 110.6 110.7 1-2 5-2
Syracuse 110.3 109.0 109.6 109.6 3-2 6-2
Florida St. 106.4 105.5 105.8 105.9 2-4 4-4
Wake Forest 103.8 101.8 101.7 102.4 1-3 4-4
Louisville 93.5 93.3 92.6 93.1 0-5 2-6
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9 2-3 4-4
Miami 114.6 113.0 113.9 113.9 2-2 5-3
Duke 111.0 109.0 110.2 110.1 1-3 5-3
Virginia Tech 110.2 109.1 109.6 109.6 3-1 4-3
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 4-1 6-2
Pittsburgh 103.3 102.6 102.9 103.0 3-1 4-4
N. Carolina 99.9 99.0 99.5 99.5 1-4 1-6
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.2 122.0 123.7 123.0 4-1 7-1
West Virginia 115.4 114.4 114.7 114.8 4-1 6-1
Iowa State 113.4 111.9 113.3 112.9 3-2 4-3
Texas 113.3 111.7 112.6 112.5 4-1 6-2
Texas Tech 111.0 109.7 110.0 110.2 3-2 5-3
Oklahoma St. 110.2 108.5 110.1 109.6 2-3 5-3
T C U 108.2 106.9 106.6 107.2 1-4 3-5
Kansas St. 102.8 101.3 101.7 101.9 1-4 3-5
Baylor 100.6 98.8 100.1 99.8 2-3 4-4
Kansas 98.2 96.8 96.5 97.2 1-4 3-5
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.9 125.7 127.5 126.7 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.5 121.5 123.6 122.9 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 120.7 118.1 120.7 119.8 3-2 6-2
Michigan St. 117.3 115.2 116.8 116.5 4-2 5-3
Maryland 105.7 104.4 105.0 105.0 3-2 5-3
Indiana 99.6 98.5 99.4 99.2 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 86.2 85.1 84.5 85.3 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-2 6-2
Purdue 113.7 112.2 113.5 113.1 3-2 4-4
Wisconsin 114.1 111.6 113.4 113.0 3-2 5-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-3
Minnesota 100.8 99.7 100.3 100.3 1-4 4-4
Nebraska 100.9 99.6 99.5 100.0 1-4 2-6
Illinois 89.7 89.0 88.4 89.0 1-4 3-5
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.4 98.0 96.5 96.7 3-1 5-2
Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.0 94.4 94.3 4-1 5-3
Florida Atlantic 93.8 94.7 94.1 94.2 1-3 3-5
Florida Int’l. 90.5 94.4 91.2 92.0 4-0 6-2
Old Dominion 80.2 83.4 79.8 81.2 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.2 82.2 79.7 80.4 0-4 1-7
Charlotte 77.7 80.2 78.4 78.8 3-2 4-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 98.3 100.6 98.8 99.2 3-2 7-2
U A B 95.6 98.2 96.4 96.8 5-0 7-1
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.2 95.1 4-1 6-2
Southern Miss. 83.9 87.0 84.3 85.1 2-2 3-4
U T S A 77.5 81.5 78.1 79.1 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.8 76.0 72.7 73.8 0-4 0-8
Rice 66.7 69.4 65.4 67.2 0-5 1-8
CUSA Averages 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 8-0
Army 104.7 105.5 105.1 105.1 x 6-2
BYU 99.6 100.0 100.0 99.8 x 4-4
Liberty 81.7 80.9 81.9 81.5 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.4 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 3-6
N. Mexico St. 72.2 74.0 72.1 72.8 x 2-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.4 100.3 4-0 7-1
Ohio U 96.3 97.6 97.2 97.0 3-1 5-3
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.4 95.4 3-1 3-5
Akron 89.9 91.1 90.0 90.4 2-2 4-3
Kent St. 79.0 80.2 78.9 79.4 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 79.0 79.3 79.0 79.1 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 98.0 99.3 97.8 98.4 2-2 4-4
Eastern Michigan 94.1 95.5 94.5 94.7 2-3 4-5
Northern Illinois 95.7 96.5 95.7 96.0 4-0 5-3
Western Michigan 91.3 92.9 92.3 92.2 4-1 6-3
Central Michigan 83.1 85.4 83.4 84.0 0-5 1-8
Ball St. 80.9 83.0 80.5 81.5 2-3 3-6
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 109.4 110.7 110.8 110.3 4-0 7-1
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.6 109.5 4-1 6-2
Air Force 95.4 96.0 95.7 95.7 1-4 3-5
Wyoming 94.9 95.0 94.7 94.8 1-4 3-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-3 3-5
Colorado St. 84.1 84.8 83.8 84.2 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 4-0 7-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 3-1 6-2
Nevada 93.9 94.0 94.1 94.0 3-2 5-4
U N L V 81.3 82.5 81.5 81.8 0-4 2-6
Hawaii 81.3 83.0 80.2 81.5 3-2 6-4
San Jose St. 78.6 79.6 77.1 78.4 1-3 1-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.2 119.2 122.0 120.8 4-2 6-3
Stanford 114.4 112.0 114.4 113.6 3-2 5-3
Washington St. 113.1 112.1 112.9 112.7 4-1 7-1
Oregon 108.7 108.5 109.3 108.8 2-3 5-3
California 107.5 105.2 107.3 106.7 2-3 5-3
Oregon St. 85.3 83.1 83.8 84.1 1-4 2-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 118.2 116.6 118.9 117.9 4-2 6-2
U S C 108.7 107.2 108.1 108.0 3-3 4-4
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.1 107.9 2-3 4-4
Arizona 103.6 101.9 103.7 103.0 3-3 4-5
Colorado 101.6 102.3 102.3 102.1 2-3 5-3
U C L A 98.3 97.9 96.0 97.4 2-3 2-6
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.5 125.6 129.5 127.8 5-1 7-1
Missouri 115.9 114.4 116.9 115.7 0-4 4-4
Kentucky 115.2 114.2 115.2 114.8 5-1 7-1
Florida 114.5 112.7 115.2 114.1 4-2 6-2
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 3-3 4-3
Vanderbilt 102.6 102.7 102.8 102.7 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 100.1 100.4 99.8 100.1 1-4 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.5 138.5 141.9 140.3 5-0 8-0
L S U 120.1 119.7 121.4 120.4 4-1 7-1
Mississippi St. 119.0 116.8 119.8 118.6 2-3 5-3
Auburn 115.5 114.3 117.1 115.6 2-3 5-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 113.9 113.4 3-2 5-3
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-3 5-3
Arkansas 99.4 96.9 98.2 98.2 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 92.5 94.4 93.3 93.4 4-0 7-1
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 4-0 6-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-2 5-3
Georgia St. 78.4 80.3 78.8 79.2 1-3 2-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 86.6 88.0 87.9 87.5 1-3 4-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-2 4-4
UL-Monroe 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.6 2-2 4-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.6 77.0 1-3 2-6
Texas State 72.0 74.8 72.1 73.0 0-4 2-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.3 113.0 114.7 114.0
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.5 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.2 95.8 95.2 95.4
7 MWC 93.8 94.3 93.7 93.9
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.5 90.7
10 CUSA 85.6 88.4 86.1 86.7
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Fresno St.
3 Houston
4 Utah St.
5 Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA [California] Utah St.
Cure AAC SBC [Eastern Michigan] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Coastal Carolina
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Central Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC At-Large South Florida [Arizona]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Duke] Middle Tennessee
Bahamas MAC CUSA Northern Illinois Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Western Michigan]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Memphis [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Georgia Tech Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Nevada] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [BYU]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Virginia Tech Tennessee
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Troy
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Mississippi St.
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Georgia
Military AAC ACC Temple Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Purdue Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Fiesta At-large At-large Kentucky Houston
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

October 24, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 25-29, 2018

After a successful week of picking, the PiRates are going heavy with 10-point and 13-point teaser selections this week.  Last week, our teasers were 8-2 against the spread, but that still didn’t get us out of the hole we dug the prior couple of weeks.

Leading the way for our Land Sharps last week, Stewed Meat went 6-1 to get back on the plus side of 52.5%, the break even point when selecting games at 11-10 odds.  Once again, all 5 Land Sharps are above the 52.5% level.

When the Sharps each sent in their picks, it looked to us like this is going to be a tough week.  The last week before the Autumn winds of November come into play can be a tough one to call.  It seems like favorites cover better this week than they do in any month in November.  Maybe injury attrition and just plain old bumps and bruises begin to affect the games more, and obviously inclement weather begins to play a part in games.  We actually saw some snow at the Wisconsin-Illinois game last week.  When the temperatures drop into the sub-freezing zone, the ball doesn’t feel the same way it does when it’s 70 degrees.  It becomes harder to throw, catch, kick, or hold onto when being hit by opposing players.

The Land Sharps

1. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 20-13-1 60.6% ROI: 16.8%

Virginia Tech  -2.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Georgia -6.5 vs. Florida

USC -6.5 vs. Arizona St.

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 24-17-0  58.5%  ROI: 12.9%

Arkansas +1.5 vs. Vanderbilt

USC -6.5 vs. Arizona St.

Stanford -3 vs. Washington St.

 

3. Friday Dog 13–Season: 22-16-1  57.9%  ROI: 11.3%

Clemson -16.5 vs. Florida St.

Washington -11.5 vs. California

Oklahoma -24.5 vs. Kansas St.

Notre Dame -23.5 vs. Navy

Colorado -24 vs. Oregon St.

 

4. Dean615–Season: 17-13-1  56.7%  ROI: 8.7%

Notre Dame -23.5 vs. Navy

Iowa +6.5 vs. Penn St.

Boston College +3.5 vs, Miami (Fla.)

Michigan St. -2.5 vs. Purdue

Pittsburgh +3 vs. Duke

Wisconsin -7 vs. Northwestern

Texas A&M +2.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

5. Stewed Meat–25-20-0  55.6%  ROI: 6.7%

Western Michigan -6.5 vs. Toledo

Georgia Southern +8.5 vs. Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina -3.5 vs. Georgia St.

Louisiana +3 vs. Arkansas St.

Florida Int’l. -3.5 vs. Western Kentucky

 

The PiRate Ratings

College 10-point 
Teasers 3 Games @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Toledo Western Michigan 3.5 Western Michigan
Georgia Tech Virginia Tech 7.5 Virginia Tech
Appalachian St. Georgia Southern 18.5 Georgia Southern
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Vanderbilt Arkansas 11.5 Arkansas
Duke Pittsburgh 12.5 Pittsburgh
Utah St. New Mexico 30.5 New Mexico
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina Virginia 1 Virginia
Georgia Florida 17 Florida
Arizona St. USC 3.5 USC
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Maryland Illinois 8 Maryland
Washington California 1.5 Washington
UAB UTEP 6 UAB
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Penn St. Iowa 16.5 Iowa
Arkansas St. Louisiana 13 Louisiana
Syracuse North Carolina St. 7.5 North Carolina St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Mississippi St. Texas A&M 12.5 Texas A&M
Western Kentucky Florida Int’l. 6.5 Florida Int’l.
Arizona Oregon 0.5 Oregon
College 13-point 
Teasers 4 Games @13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Miami (Fla.) Boston College 16.5 Boston College
Minnesota Indiana 10.5 Indiana
Oklahoma St. Texas 9.5 Texas
San Diego St. Nevada 16 Nevada
NFL 10-point 
Teasers 3 Games @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
N. Y. Jets Chicago 3 Chicago
Cleveland Pittsburgh 2 Pittsburgh
N.Y. Giants Washington 9 Washington
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Kansas City Denver Pk Kansas City
Baltimore Carolina 12 Carolina
New Orleans Minnesota 11 Minnesota
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay L.A. Rams 1 L.A. Rams
New England Buffalo 4 New England
Arizona San Francisco 11 San Francisco
 

NFL 13-point 

 

Teaser

 

4 games

 

@13-10

Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Houston Miami 31 Over
Kansas City Denver 41.5 Over
Pittsburgh Cleveland 63.5 Under
Washington N.Y. Giants 29 Over

 

October 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 9

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:23 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 23
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
South Alabama Troy -11.2 -10.6 -11.9

 

Thursday October 25
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Toledo 1.0 1.6 2.2
Ohio U Ball St. 14.0 13.0 14.9
Georgia Southern Appalachian St. -8.3 -8.3 -9.2
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 3.9 4.1 4.0
West Virginia Baylor 12.4 13.2 11.7

 

Friday October 26
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Miami (Fla.) 1.5 0.3 1.4
Minnesota Indiana 3.6 3.6 3.3
UCLA Utah -13.9 -12.4 -17.0
Colorado St. Wyoming -8.0 -7.1 -7.6
Florida Atlantic Louisiana Tech 5.3 3.7 4.6

 

Saturday October 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Old Dominion Middle Tennessee -6.5 -4.5 -7.7
Syracuse North Carolina St. -0.5 -1.6 -1.3
Virginia North Carolina 10.4 11.6 10.3
Akron Central Michigan 9.6 8.5 9.7
Pittsburgh Duke -8.1 -6.9 -8.2
Maryland Illinois 16.4 15.5 16.5
Louisville Wake Forest -3.8 -1.6 -2.4
Northwestern Wisconsin -4.3 -3.6 -4.2
Eastern Michigan Army -6.0 -5.2 -5.6
Charlotte Southern Miss. -4.4 -5.3 -4.5
Kansas TCU -10.2 -10.4 -10.7
Connecticut Massachusetts -3.1 -4.6 -4.9
Georgia St. Coastal Carolina 3.0 2.5 3.1
Utah St. New Mexico 23.4 23.3 24.6
Colorado Oregon St. 23.7 27.2 26.6
UTEP UAB -20.5 -19.9 -21.7
BYU Northern Illinois 8.2 7.9 9.0
Nevada San Diego St. -3.7 -3.7 -4.2
Stanford Washington St. 7.5 5.9 8.1
USC Arizona St. 4.8 5.0 4.9
California Washington -13.4 -13.9 -15.0
Florida (n) Georgia -13.2 -11.7 -13.1
San Jose St. UNLV -3.9 -4.5 -5.8
Tulsa Tulane -0.4 -1.3 0.6
Mississippi St. Texas A&M 6.9 6.0 7.3
Missouri Kentucky 5.0 4.5 6.4
South Carolina Tennessee 16.3 14.7 16.4
Oklahoma St. Texas -1.1 -1.6 -0.9
North Texas Rice 34.8 34.6 37.3
Houston South Florida 10.0 9.0 10.7
Penn St. Iowa 7.0 6.2 7.2
Michigan St. Purdue 5.9 5.0 5.1
Western Kentucky Florida Int’l. -6.4 -7.3 -6.2
SMU Cincinnati -2.6 -4.6 -3.8
Arkansas Vanderbilt 2.9 0.2 1.8
Oklahoma Kansas St. 19.6 19.7 20.8
Louisiana Arkansas St. -2.4 -1.6 -2.8
Texas St. New Mexico St. 1.2 2.2 1.0
Iowa St. Texas Tech 4.8 4.4 5.6
Air Force Boise St. -11.6 -10.4 -11.6
Florida St. Clemson -23.9 -22.0 -24.9
Notre Dame Navy 36.6 31.7 36.0
Arizona Oregon -8.6 -10.2 -9.1
Fresno St. Hawaii 35.5 33.0 37.0

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Nebraska Bethune-Cookman 36.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

The PiRate Ratings are predictive and not meant to rank teams on what they have done to date.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.6 140.0
2 Clemson 135.5 132.8 136.1 134.8
3 Georgia 128.1 125.0 128.9 127.3
4 Michigan 126.6 125.4 127.2 126.4
5 Notre Dame 124.8 122.0 123.8 123.5
6 Ohio St. 123.2 121.2 123.3 122.6
7 Washington 122.8 120.9 123.9 122.5
8 Oklahoma 121.2 119.9 121.5 120.9
9 Penn St. 121.0 118.4 121.0 120.1
10 L S U 119.8 119.4 121.1 120.1
11 Mississippi St. 118.4 116.1 119.0 117.9
12 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
13 Missouri 116.4 114.9 117.6 116.3
14 Utah 116.3 114.6 117.1 116.0
15 Michigan St. 116.9 114.7 116.2 116.0
16 Miami 116.2 114.8 115.7 115.6
17 Auburn 115.2 114.0 116.8 115.3
18 Wisconsin 115.9 113.4 115.4 114.9
19 Stanford 115.6 113.1 115.8 114.8
20 Florida 114.9 113.3 115.8 114.6
21 Central Florida 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.4
22 Texas A&M 114.5 113.2 114.7 114.1
23 Kentucky 114.4 113.4 114.2 114.0
24 Boston College 114.7 112.1 114.1 113.7
25 Purdue 114.1 112.7 114.1 113.6
26 Texas 113.8 112.4 113.3 113.1
27 Iowa State 113.1 111.5 112.9 112.5
28 N. Carolina St. 112.6 112.1 112.4 112.4
29 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
30 Oregon 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.3
31 Duke 112.9 110.9 112.3 112.1
32 Virginia Tech 112.5 111.5 112.1 112.0
33 West Virginia 112.7 111.7 111.8 112.0
34 S. Carolina 112.5 111.3 112.1 112.0
35 Georgia Tech 111.5 110.4 111.1 111.0
36 Washington St. 111.1 110.2 110.7 110.7
37 Texas Tech 111.3 110.1 110.4 110.6
38 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.8 109.5
39 T C U 110.3 109.1 108.9 109.4
40 Oklahoma St. 109.7 107.8 109.4 108.9
41 U S C 109.5 108.1 109.1 108.9
42 Northwestern 109.1 107.4 108.7 108.4
43 Utah St. 107.6 108.8 108.8 108.4
44 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.1 108.3
45 Florida St. 108.6 107.8 108.2 108.2
46 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
47 Arizona St. 107.7 106.2 107.1 107.0
48 California 106.4 104.0 105.9 105.4
49 Colorado 104.3 105.3 105.4 105.0
50 Army 103.9 104.6 104.1 104.2
51 Kansas St. 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8
52 Maryland 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8
53 Houston 103.2 104.0 103.7 103.6
54 Ole Miss 103.3 102.8 103.6 103.2
55 Baylor 103.3 101.5 103.0 102.6
56 Temple 102.2 102.2 102.9 102.4
57 Memphis 100.8 102.3 101.6 101.6
58 Appalachian St. 100.4 102.2 102.0 101.5
59 Pittsburgh 101.7 101.0 101.1 101.3
60 Vanderbilt 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.1
61 Wake Forest 102.3 100.1 100.1 100.8
62 BYU 100.4 100.9 101.0 100.7
63 San Diego St. 100.0 100.1 100.6 100.2
64 N. Texas 99.1 101.5 99.9 100.1
65 Arizona 100.6 98.9 100.7 100.0
66 Buffalo 99.0 101.0 100.1 100.0
67 Minnesota 100.5 99.4 100.0 100.0
68 N. Carolina 100.2 99.3 99.8 99.8
69 Arkansas 101.0 98.4 99.9 99.8
70 Nebraska 100.6 99.3 99.2 99.7
71 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
72 Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.7 99.2
73 Cincinnati 98.4 100.0 98.8 99.0
74 U C L A 99.5 99.2 97.1 98.6
75 U A B 95.7 98.3 96.6 96.9
76 South Florida 96.2 98.0 96.0 96.7
77 Marshall 95.1 97.7 96.2 96.4
78 Kansas 97.1 95.6 95.2 96.0
79 Toledo 95.5 96.7 95.3 95.8
80 Eastern Michigan 94.9 96.4 95.5 95.6
81 Florida Atlantic 95.2 96.0 95.6 95.6
82 Northern Illinois 95.2 95.9 95.0 95.4
83 Air Force 95.1 95.7 95.2 95.3
84 Louisville 95.5 95.5 94.7 95.2
85 Miami (O) 93.8 95.5 96.1 95.1
86 Ohio U 94.1 95.3 94.8 94.7
87 Western Michigan 93.5 95.2 94.5 94.4
88 Wyoming 94.5 94.5 94.1 94.3
89 Louisiana Tech 92.9 95.3 94.0 94.0
90 Nevada 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.3
91 Tulane 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.1
92 SMU 92.8 92.3 92.0 92.4
93 Middle Tennessee 91.3 92.7 92.2 92.1
94 Navy 91.2 93.3 90.7 91.8
95 Troy 90.8 92.1 92.1 91.7
96 Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.2 89.8 90.8
97 Illinois 91.3 90.7 90.2 90.7
98 Akron 90.1 91.3 90.3 90.6
99 Tulsa 90.3 89.6 90.8 90.2
100 Georgia Southern 89.1 90.9 89.8 89.9
101 Arkansas St. 87.0 88.4 88.5 88.0
102 New Mexico 87.2 88.5 87.1 87.6
103 Southern Miss. 84.4 87.6 85.0 85.7
104 Rutgers 85.9 84.8 84.2 85.0
105 Colorado St. 84.5 85.3 84.4 84.7
106 U N L V 83.4 84.8 83.7 84.0
107 Central Michigan 83.0 85.3 83.2 83.8
108 Ball St. 83.1 85.3 82.9 83.8
109 Old Dominion 82.3 85.7 82.0 83.4
110 Louisiana 82.1 84.3 83.3 83.2
111 East Carolina 83.2 82.9 82.6 82.9
112 UL-Monroe 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.3
113 Oregon St. 83.6 81.1 81.7 82.1
114 W. Kentucky 80.4 83.4 81.1 81.6
115 Liberty 81.4 80.6 81.6 81.2
116 Hawaii 81.0 82.7 79.9 81.2
117 Massachusetts 80.3 82.2 81.0 81.2
118 Georgia St. 78.9 80.8 79.5 79.7
119 Coastal Carolina 78.3 80.8 78.9 79.3
120 Kent St. 78.7 79.9 78.6 79.1
121 Bowling Green 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.8
122 U T S A 77.2 81.2 77.8 78.8
123 Charlotte 77.5 79.9 78.0 78.5
124 South Alabama 76.6 78.5 77.2 77.4
125 San Jose St. 77.0 77.8 75.4 76.7
126 Connecticut 75.2 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.7 75.9 72.5 73.7
128 N. Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5
129 Texas State 71.6 74.4 71.5 72.5
130 Rice 66.2 68.8 64.6 66.6

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.4 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.2 102.2 102.9 102.4 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.4 100.0 98.8 99.0 2-1 6-1
South Florida 96.2 98.0 96.0 96.7 3-0 7-0
East Carolina 83.2 82.9 82.6 82.9 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.2 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 103.2 104.0 103.7 103.6 3-0 6-1
Memphis 100.8 102.3 101.6 101.6 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.1 1-2 2-5
SMU 92.8 92.3 92.0 92.4 2-1 3-4
Navy 91.2 93.3 90.7 91.8 1-3 2-5
Tulsa 90.3 89.6 90.8 90.2 0-3 1-6
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.0 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 135.5 132.8 136.1 134.8 4-0 7-0
Boston College 114.7 112.1 114.1 113.7 2-1 5-2
N. Carolina St. 112.6 112.1 112.4 112.4 1-1 5-1
Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.1 108.3 2-2 5-2
Florida St. 108.6 107.8 108.2 108.2 2-3 4-3
Wake Forest 102.3 100.1 100.1 100.8 0-3 3-4
Louisville 95.5 95.5 94.7 95.2 0-4 2-5
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.2 114.8 115.7 115.6 2-1 5-2
Duke 112.9 110.9 112.3 112.1 1-2 5-2
Virginia Tech 112.5 111.5 112.1 112.0 3-0 4-2
Georgia Tech 111.5 110.4 111.1 111.0 1-3 3-4
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 3-1 5-2
Pittsburgh 101.7 101.0 101.1 101.3 2-1 3-4
N. Carolina 100.2 99.3 99.8 99.8 1-3 1-5
ACC Averages 110.1 108.9 109.5 109.5
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.2 119.9 121.5 120.9 3-1 6-1
Texas 113.8 112.4 113.3 113.1 4-0 6-1
Iowa State 113.1 111.5 112.9 112.5 2-2 3-3
West Virginia 112.7 111.7 111.8 112.0 3-1 5-1
Texas Tech 111.3 110.1 110.4 110.6 3-1 5-2
T C U 110.3 109.1 108.9 109.4 1-3 3-4
Oklahoma St. 109.7 107.8 109.4 108.9 1-3 4-3
Kansas St. 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 1-3 3-4
Baylor 103.3 101.5 103.0 102.6 2-2 4-3
Kansas 97.1 95.6 95.2 96.0 0-4 2-5
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.6 125.4 127.2 126.4 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.2 121.2 123.3 122.6 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 121.0 118.4 121.0 120.1 2-2 5-2
Michigan St. 116.9 114.7 116.2 116.0 3-2 4-3
Maryland 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 2-2 4-3
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-4 4-4
Rutgers 85.9 84.8 84.2 85.0 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-1 6-1
Wisconsin 115.9 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 5-2
Purdue 114.1 112.7 114.1 113.6 3-1 4-3
Northwestern 109.1 107.4 108.7 108.4 4-1 4-3
Minnesota 100.5 99.4 100.0 100.0 0-4 3-4
Nebraska 100.6 99.3 99.2 99.7 1-4 1-6
Illinois 91.3 90.7 90.2 90.7 1-3 3-4
Big Ten Averages 109.0 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.1 97.7 96.2 96.4 3-1 5-2
Florida Atlantic 95.2 96.0 95.6 95.6 1-2 3-4
Middle Tennessee 91.3 92.7 92.2 92.1 3-1 4-3
Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.2 89.8 90.8 3-0 5-2
Old Dominion 82.3 85.7 82.0 83.4 1-4 2-6
W. Kentucky 80.4 83.4 81.1 81.6 0-3 1-6
Charlotte 77.5 79.9 78.0 78.5 2-2 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.1 101.5 99.9 100.1 2-2 6-2
U A B 95.7 98.3 96.6 96.9 4-0 6-1
Louisiana Tech 92.9 95.3 94.0 94.0 3-1 5-2
Southern Miss. 84.4 87.6 85.0 85.7 2-1 3-3
U T S A 77.2 81.2 77.8 78.8 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.7 75.9 72.5 73.7 0-3 0-7
Rice 66.2 68.8 64.6 66.6 0-4 1-7
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.8 122.0 123.8 123.5 x 7-0
Army 103.9 104.6 104.1 104.2 x 5-2
BYU 100.4 100.9 101.0 100.7 x 4-3
Liberty 81.4 80.6 81.6 81.2 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.3 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 2-6
N. Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5 x 2-6
Indep. Averages 93.9 94.2 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.0 101.0 100.1 100.0 4-0 7-1
Miami (O) 93.8 95.5 96.1 95.1 3-1 3-5
Ohio U 94.1 95.3 94.8 94.7 2-1 4-3
Akron 90.1 91.3 90.3 90.6 1-2 3-3
Kent St. 78.7 79.9 78.6 79.1 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.8 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 95.5 96.7 95.3 95.8 1-2 3-4
Eastern Michigan 94.9 96.4 95.5 95.6 2-3 4-4
Northern Illinois 95.2 95.9 95.0 95.4 4-0 4-3
Western Michigan 93.5 95.2 94.5 94.4 4-0 6-2
Central Michigan 83.0 85.3 83.2 83.8 0-4 1-7
Ball St. 83.1 85.3 82.9 83.8 2-2 3-5
MAC Averages 90.0 91.4 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.8 109.5 3-1 5-2
Utah St. 107.6 108.8 108.8 108.4 3-0 6-1
Air Force 95.1 95.7 95.2 95.3 1-3 3-4
Wyoming 94.5 94.5 94.1 94.3 0-4 2-6
New Mexico 87.2 88.5 87.1 87.6 1-2 3-4
Colorado St. 84.5 85.3 84.4 84.7 2-2 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 3-0 6-1
San Diego St. 100.0 100.1 100.6 100.2 3-0 6-1
Nevada 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.3 2-2 4-4
U N L V 83.4 84.8 83.7 84.0 0-3 2-5
Hawaii 81.0 82.7 79.9 81.2 3-1 6-3
San Jose St. 77.0 77.8 75.4 76.7 0-3 0-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.8 120.9 123.9 122.5 4-1 6-2
Stanford 115.6 113.1 115.8 114.8 3-1 5-2
Oregon 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.3 2-2 5-2
Washington St. 111.1 110.2 110.7 110.7 3-1 6-1
California 106.4 104.0 105.9 105.4 1-3 4-3
Oregon St. 83.6 81.1 81.7 82.1 0-4 1-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.3 114.6 117.1 116.0 3-2 5-2
U S C 109.5 108.1 109.1 108.9 3-2 4-3
Arizona St. 107.7 106.2 107.1 107.0 1-3 3-4
Colorado 104.3 105.3 105.4 105.0 2-2 5-2
Arizona 100.6 98.9 100.7 100.0 2-3 3-5
U C L A 99.5 99.2 97.1 98.6 2-2 2-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.1 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.1 125.0 128.9 127.3 4-1 6-1
Missouri 116.4 114.9 117.6 116.3 0-3 4-3
Florida 114.9 113.3 115.8 114.6 4-1 6-1
Kentucky 114.4 113.4 114.2 114.0 4-1 6-1
S. Carolina 112.5 111.3 112.1 112.0 2-3 3-3
Vanderbilt 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.1 0-4 3-5
Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.7 99.2 1-3 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.6 140.0 5-0 8-0
L S U 119.8 119.4 121.1 120.1 4-1 7-1
Mississippi St. 118.4 116.1 119.0 117.9 1-3 4-3
Auburn 115.2 114.0 116.8 115.3 2-3 5-3
Texas A&M 114.5 113.2 114.7 114.1 3-1 5-2
Ole Miss 103.3 102.8 103.6 103.2 1-3 5-3
Arkansas 101.0 98.4 99.9 99.8 0-4 2-6
SEC Averages 114.2 112.9 114.6 113.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 100.4 102.2 102.0 101.5 3-0 5-1
Troy 90.8 92.1 92.1 91.7 3-0 5-2
Georgia Southern 89.1 90.9 89.8 89.9 3-0 6-1
Georgia St. 78.9 80.8 79.5 79.7 1-2 2-5
Coastal Carolina 78.3 80.8 78.9 79.3 1-2 4-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.0 88.4 88.5 88.0 1-2 4-3
Louisiana 82.1 84.3 83.3 83.2 1-2 3-4
UL-Monroe 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.3 2-2 4-4
South Alabama 76.6 78.5 77.2 77.4 1-2 2-5
Texas State 71.6 74.4 71.5 72.5 0-4 1-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.7 85.5 84.5 84.6

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.2 112.9 114.6 113.9
2 ACC 110.1 108.9 109.5 109.5
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.0 107.5 108.5 108.4
5 P-12 107.5 106.1 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.0 95.3
7 IND 93.9 94.2 94.1 94.1
8 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
9 MAC 90.0 91.4 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.1 86.7
11 SUN 83.7 85.5 84.5 84.6

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Fresno St.
4 San Diego St.
5 Houston

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. Louisiana Tech
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Utah St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois UL-Monroe
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large [Middle Tennessee] [Coastal Carolina]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Western Michigan Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Colorado]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA North Texas [BYU]
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Toledo] Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Duke [Troy]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Michigan Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Utah
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Purdue LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Iowa Fresno St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Texas
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Key Games This Week

There may not be as many marquee games this week as there were last week, but because the season is now past the halfway mark, regular games begin to have more meaning as teams with no championship hopes look to secure bowl bids.

There are a number of games where the winner might greatly improve bowl chances and that could be bowl elimination games for the loser.  Let’s take a quick look at some excellent games on this week’s schedule.

First, on Thursday night, you get five different games, and there is no World Series game, as the teams will travel across the land that day.

Thursday

Western Michigan vs. Toledo: The Broncos are now the favorite to win the West Division and maybe run the table the rest of the way, while Toledo is looking like it could be team #78 out of 78 bowl teams.  The MAC looks like it will have six bowl eligible teams, but five will only get bowl bids.  Toledo and Ohio may be competing for that fifth spot.

Ohio U vs. Ball St.: This is the other half of the MAC equation.  If the Bobcats falter in this game, then they are looking at 5-7.  It’s a must-win game for Ball St., but the schedule does not give them enough winnable games in November to recover from 3-5 to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian St.: The Sun Belt East Division title may be decided Thursday night.  After trying the more conventional style of play with total failure, GSU has gone back to what worked for them for many years–the spread triple option, and it is working.  Appy State enters this game looking like a team that still holds out hope for a Peach Bowl bid if UCF, USF, Houston, and Fresno State lose games down the stretch and they run the table.  This may be the best game of the night and one you will want to watch.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is running out of time to get to six wins with a closing stretch of games against Miami, Virginia, and Georgia.  If Paul Johnson’s team is to finish 3-2, it almost has to include an upset win here.  Virginia Tech finishes with four home games in their final five, and the Hokies have the inside track to the Coastal Division flag.

West Virginia vs. Baylor: West Virginia’s playoff chances probably ended with the loss to Iowa St., but if the Mountaineers run the table, a Sugar Bowl bid is likely their reward.  Baylor needs two wins in their final five games to return to a bowl after a brief absence, and to pull off the trick, the Bears are going to have to upset two teams, because they will be underdogs in all five games.

Friday

Boston College vs. Miami (Fla.): Both teams are still alive for the Camping World bid, but most likely, these two are competing for one of the #3 priority bowls.

Minnesota vs. Indiana: This is a pure bowl elimination game.  The winner stays alive, and the loser is done.

UCLA vs. Utah: The Bruins have won back-to-back games after starting 0-5.  It’s been done before, where a team loses multiple games to start the season and comes back to earn a bowl bid.  A couple years ago, Miami of Ohio started 0-6 and finished 6-6.  Can Chip Kelly work his magic?  If UCLA beats Utah, the Bruins would move into a first place tie in the Pac-12 South.  Of course, if Utah wins, the Utes make a big move forward toward winning the South.  Stay up late and watch this game.

Saturday

Syracuse vs. North Carolina St: After the Wolf Pack’s drubbing at the hands of Clemson, they have no room for error left in the remaining part of their schedule if they want to contend for a New Year’s Six Bowl game.  Not having the West Virginia game on their schedule, they must run the table and finish 11-1.  Syracuse is one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.  This game should be interesting.

Pittsburgh vs. Duke: Pitt has to win this game, or it’s no bowl game for the Panthers in 2018.  Duke is out of the ACC Coastal Division title race, but they need just one more win to become bowl eligible.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin: Four of the seven teams in the Big Ten West Division have one conference loss, and these are two of them.  Neither team is playing as well as predicted this year, as they tend to win ugly.  Northwestern has been forced to come from behind two weeks in a row, including their most previous game against Rutgers.  This was the closest game for the Badgers last year when they ran the table to the Big Ten Championship Game, and it should be close and low-scoring this year.

Eastern Michigan vs. Army: What?  You say this game is a nothing game?  Think again.  These are two teams that will still be playing after December 15.  Army has a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 1996.  EMU needs to win three more games to clinch its second winning season in the last three years.  Expect the scoreboard to get a lot of action in this one.

Nevada vs. San Diego St.: San Diego State barely beat winless San Jose State, while Nevada won big at Hawaii.  This game looks more like a tossup now than it did a couple weeks ago.  SDSU is still in the Mountain West West Division race with Fresno St., but the Aztecs are looking like a runner-up at the moment.

Stanford vs. Washington St.: The Pirate is not a PiRate, but Mike Leach has done an amazing job in Pullman.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Cougars, but after beating Oregon, Washington State is a co-favorite to win the Pac-12 North.  One of the other two co-favorites is their opponent Saturday, and this game will be played on the Farm, where Stanford rarely loses these days.  The winner is in great shape to become the North Division representative in the conference title game.

California vs. Washington: This is an excellent opportunity for the Bears to pick up a statement win at home.  Washington has not been the team the so-called experts thought they would be, and their chances to win the North Division title are no better than their arch-rival’s, and Stanford’s.  A Cal upset comes close to guaranteeing the Golden Bears a 6-6 season and bowl bid.

Florida vs. Georgia: The winner becomes the heavy favorite to get the chance to be embarrassed by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Both teams had an open date to prepare for this game, and both teams’ coaching staffs can prepare excellent game plans.  Expect this game to be low scoring, and the winner may not emerge until the final five to seven minutes.  The winner is the leading contender for the Sugar Bowl, while the loser could still nab a Peach Bowl bid.

Mississippi St. vs. Texas A&M: Texas A&M has lost to Clemson and Alabama, so their 5-2 record is deceiving.  Jimbo Fisher has done an incredible job in his first year at A&M, and if he can lead his team to a road victory, the Aggies might become the favorite to be number two overall in this league and even get into the discussion for a Sugar Bowl bid.

Missouri vs. Kentucky: Kentucky’s incredible 5-0 start hit a snag when the Wildcats’ one-dimensional offense could do nothing against Texas A&M.  Then, it continued to sputter against a Vanderbilt team that is 0-4 in conference play.  Missouri’s defense won’t be able to shut down the Wildcats’ offense, but they still may be able to outscore the ‘Cats and end Kentucky’s chances of winning the SEC East.  Missouri is most likely looking at a Liberty or Music City Bowl bid unless they run the table and finish 9-3.

Oklahoma St. vs. Texas: 2005 was 13 seasons ago.  That’s the last time Oklahoma State failed to earn a bowl bid or end the season with a winning record.  The Cowboys are starting to look like a man on a safari that just put his right foot in quicksand.  A loss at home to Texas will square OSU’s record at 4-4 with some tough November games and most likely a 5-7 record.  Texas now has a legitimate chance to sneak into the Playoffs if the Longhorns can run the table and finish 12-1.  After this game, the toughest remaining games would be home games.  A rematch with the Sooners or possibly with the Mountaineers could get the Longhorns into the #4 position.

Houston vs. South Florida: USF has fiddled its way to a 7-0 record, but if the Bulls start slow this week, they will be 7-1 on Sunday.  Houston is on a roll and almost for sure will win the AAC West Division title.  If they can knock off USF and then beat Central Florida in the Championship Game, the Cougars could be Fiesta-bowl bound.  A loss along the way probably keeps them in an in-state bowl in December.  If USF should put together a four-quarter effort and win this game, then the Bulls are going to gain enough confidence to knock off UCF in Tampa in the regular season finale.

Penn St. vs. Iowa: Three weeks ago, this would have been considered a cinch win for Penn St., but the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and then Michigan State.  They just barely survived a trip to Indiana.  Iowa has two big road games back-to-back starting with this one and then continuing with Purdue in West Lafayette the following week.  The Hawkeyes look like the best overall team in the Big Ten West, but it will be close to impossible for Kirk Ferentz’s team to win both of the two road games.

Michigan St. vs. Purdue: Michigan St. might play its best game of the year this week.  The team has got to be feeling quite upset after they did absolutely nothing against Michigan.  Purdue is going to bounce somewhat after pulling off the big win over Ohio State.  Just look at what happened to Iowa last year the week after they slaughtered Ohio State; Wisconsin slaughtered them.  We don’t think Sparty  can slaughter any Big Ten team remaining on their schedule, and that includes a home game with Rutgers.  But, they have just enough talent and a huge chip on their shoulders, so this game should be much closer than expected.

Louisiana vs. Arkansas St.: The Sun Belt West Division is totally up for grabs entering the last five weeks of the regular season, as four of the five teams have two conference losses.  The winner of this game takes a giant leg up on the rest of the contenders and also comes very close to cinching bowl eligibility.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Believe it or not, but both teams still have a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as the number two seed.  This is a contrast of two coaches on the rise for different reasons.  Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is moving up to the top tier of the coaching pyramid for the next big-time opening.  He could be coaching at a national power in the next couple of years.  Kliff Kingsbury was almost one foot out the door in Lubbock last month, but wins over TCU and Oklahoma State have him back on somewhat solid ground, as the Red Raiders need just one more win to clinch a bowl bid.

Air Force vs. Boise St.: The Falcons need to go 3-2 in to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is sneaky and tricky the rest of the way.  The two hardest remaining games are this one and the next one at Army.  Losses in both games means AFA would have to win their last three to become bowl eligible.  Boise State has an uphill climb to make the MWC Championship Game, as they are a game behind Utah State, and they must still play Fresno State.  A loss here gives the Mountain Division title to Utah State.

Florida St. vs. Clemson: This game has such a history, but history is probably all Florida State fans can hold onto in this game.  Clemson should win by double digits in this one, but stranger things have happened.  Clemson has lost games as big favorites the prior two years, and this looks like a trap game.  The Seminoles must upset somebody in order to become bowl eligible.

Fresno St. vs. Hawaii: This game won’t end until the wee hours of the morning on the East Coast, so a lot of the Eastern elite press will not give it much notice.  However, you can stay up and watch it on ESPN2.  Fresno State is like a horse with a great closing run that is sitting 7 lengths off the pace in a Stakes race but has been on the rail saving ground since the start.  The Bulldogs lost early at Minnesota and have a win at UCLA.  They sit at 6-1, and there isn’t an opponent left on the schedule they cannot beat.  This race is shaping up so that Jeff Tedford’s team could go 12-1.  Now, it is up to those speed horses up front to fall back to the pack.  If USF, UCF, and Houston lose another game this year and FSU wins out, then the Bulldogs should earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.  Hawaii should not give Fresno much of a challenge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:06 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday October 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Appalachian St. -6.3 -6.6 -6.1

 

Thursday October 11
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Texas Tech 7.5 7.8 7.6
Texas St. Georgia Southern -17.3 -15.9 -18.5

 

Friday October 12
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulsa South Florida -4.8 -8.0 -4.8
Utah Arizona 15.0 14.9 15.3
San Diego St. Air Force 10.9 10.7 12.2

 

Saturday October 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Louisville 22.4 20.0 23.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -9.9 -8.1 -10.5
Eastern Michigan Toledo -1.7 -1.5 -0.8
South Carolina Texas A&M 1.7 2.0 1.5
Coastal Carolina Louisiana-Monroe 2.3 5.2 2.6
Illinois Purdue -11.6 -10.2 -12.1
Central Michigan Ball St. 3.8 4.1 4.6
Georgia Tech Duke 1.4 2.7 1.7
Maryland Rutgers 22.8 22.3 23.8
North Carolina Virginia Tech -11.1 -11.3 -11.7
Charlotte Western Kentucky -7.0 -8.1 -8.3
East Carolina Houston -16.9 -17.7 -17.5
Buffalo Akron 8.0 8.9 8.6
Old Dominion Marshall -6.6 -5.5 -7.8
Florida Int’l. Middle Tennessee 0.6 3.4 0.2
Miami (O) Kent St. 15.2 15.8 18.0
Utah St. UNLV 23.9 23.7 24.8
Colorado St. New Mexico -1.5 -2.2 -1.7
Liberty Troy -9.3 -11.8 -10.8
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 28.3 26.1 28.3
USC Colorado 8.6 5.4 6.6
San Jose St. Army -21.7 -21.5 -23.7
Oregon Washington -7.7 -5.5 -8.5
Northern Illinois Ohio U 5.3 5.0 4.7
UTSA Louisiana Tech -10.9 -8.8 -11.3
Bowling Green Western Michigan -9.1 -10.9 -10.2
Arkansas Ole Miss -0.3 -2.3 -1.5
Michigan Wisconsin 9.6 10.9 10.3
Ohio St. Minnesota 29.2 27.9 30.0
Navy Temple -8.5 -6.3 -10.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -0.5 -1.2 -0.2
North Texas Southern Miss. 17.8 17.1 17.9
Northwestern Nebraska 20.1 19.8 22.3
Indiana Iowa -11.4 -10.1 -10.9
Memphis Central Florida -10.2 -8.5 -9.9
Auburn Tennessee 24.5 22.7 26.8
Texas Baylor 13.3 13.9 13.4
Alabama Missouri 28.3 27.8 28.9
Vanderbilt Florida -11.7 -9.6 -12.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. -5.7 -5.4 -6.8
Rice UAB -20.8 -20.6 -23.2
LSU Georgia -13.1 -9.8 -13.1
Louisiana New Mexico St. 5.7 5.8 6.3
Penn St. Michigan St. 10.3 9.7 11.4
BYU Hawaii 21.5 19.7 23.0
California UCLA 13.8 11.5 15.6
Fresno St. Wyoming 19.1 18.1 20.1
Nevada Boise St. -17.5 -17.1 -18.3

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
South Alabama Alabama St. 29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9
2 Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9
3 Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2
5 Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5
6 Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7
7 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
8 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
9 Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0
10 Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0
11 Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3
12 Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5
13 Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1
14 Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6
15 Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3
16 L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2
17 Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6
18 Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
19 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
20 N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0
21 West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9
22 Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9
23 Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8
24 Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5
25 Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5
26 Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4
27 Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3
28 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
29 Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2
30 Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7
31 T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4
32 Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3
33 Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1
34 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0
35 Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3
36 Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1
37 Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4
38 Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3
39 Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9
40 U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8
41 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
42 Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8
43 Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0
45 Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0
46 Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8
47 California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3
48 Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0
49 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
50 Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0
51 Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6
52 San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2
53 Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2
54 Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8
55 Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8
56 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7
57 Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1
58 Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1
59 Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9
60 Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8
61 Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7
62 N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6
63 Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5
64 BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2
65 Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0
66 Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7
67 South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4
68 Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4
69 Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2
70 Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5
71 N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4
72 Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9
73 Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8
74 Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7
75 Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4
76 Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6
77 U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2
79 Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0
80 Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7
81 Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6
82 Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3
83 Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2
85 Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9
86 Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8
87 Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6
88 U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3
89 Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2
90 Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1
91 Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0
92 Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0
93 Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7
94 Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3
95 Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0
96 SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3
97 Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1
98 Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8
99 Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7
100 Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6
101 Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1
102 New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3
103 Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4
104 Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0
105 U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8
106 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6
107 Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2
108 Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8
109 Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5
110 Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5
111 Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1
112 Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0
113 East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8
114 Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8
115 U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9
116 Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4
117 Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0
118 Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
119 Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9
120 Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5
121 UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2
122 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1
123 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0
124 N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0
125 San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0
126 Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3
127 Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9
128 U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9
129 Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1
130 Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3 2-0 5-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7 2-0 3-3
South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4 1-0 5-0
Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8 0-2 2-3
Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 1-0 4-1
Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8 1-2 4-2
Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0 1-1 2-3
SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6 0-2 1-4
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5 1-1 4-2
Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7 0-3 2-4
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5 2-0 5-1
Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2 0-1 4-1
Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7 2-0 3-2
Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1 1-2 3-3
Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0 1-1 3-2
Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0 2-1 3-3
N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4 1-1 1-3
ACC Averages 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0 2-1 5-1
West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9 3-0 5-0
Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3 3-0 5-1
T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4 1-1 3-2
Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1 1-2 4-2
Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3 1-2 2-3
Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1 0-3 2-4
Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8 2-1 4-2
Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2 3-0 6-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 3-0 5-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6 2-1 3-2
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-1 3-2
Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7 1-2 4-2
Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1 2-0 4-1
Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5 1-1 4-1
Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3 2-1 2-3
Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1 0-2 3-2
Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6 0-3 0-5
Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9 1-1 3-2
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4 1-1 3-3
Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6 1-1 3-2
Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7 2-0 3-2
Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1 1-0 3-2
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5 0-3 1-5
Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6 1-1 5-1
Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2 1-1 3-2
U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3 2-0 4-1
Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0 1-0 2-2
U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9 2-0 3-3
U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9 0-2 0-6
Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3 0-2 1-5
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5 x 6-0
Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8 x 3-2
BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2 x 3-3
Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1 x 2-5
Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5 x 2-3
N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0 x 2-4
Independents Averages 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8 2-0 5-1
Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2 1-0 3-2
Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0 2-1 2-4
Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3 0-1 2-2
Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4 0-2 1-5
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1 0-2 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7 1-0 3-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2 3-0 3-3
Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8 0-3 2-4
Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0 2-0 4-2
Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4 0-2 1-5
Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8 1-1 2-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3 1-1 3-2
Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0 1-0 4-1
Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0 0-2 2-3
Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3 0-2 2-4
New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3 1-0 3-2
Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4 1-0 4-1
San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2 1-0 4-1
Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7 1-1 3-3
U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8 0-1 2-3
Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8 3-0 6-1
San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0 0-2 0-5
MWC Averages 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7 3-0 5-1
Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 2-1 5-1
California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3 0-2 3-2
Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8 1-2 3-2
U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0 2-0 5-0
Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7 2-1 3-3
U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6 0-2 0-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2 4-0 6-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6 0-2 3-2
Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 3-1 5-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-1 5-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0 2-2 3-2
Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5 0-2 3-3
Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9 3-0 6-0
Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0 1-2 4-2
Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2 2-1 5-1
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 2-1 4-2
Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6 0-2 4-2
Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2 0-3 1-5
SEC Averages 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1 3-0 5-1
Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8 2-0 4-1
Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0 1-1 3-2
Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1 0-1 3-2
Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9 1-1 2-3
UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2 0-2 2-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0 1-2 1-5
Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1 0-2 1-4
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
2 ACC 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
8 MWC 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Cincinnati
4 Fresno St.
5 San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Atlantic Louisiana
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan UAB
Frisco AAC MAC [BYU] Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC [Army] [Marshall]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Utah]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona St.] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Utah St.] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Nevada]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Baylor Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Ohio St. Clemson
Orange Alabama Notre Dame
National Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

September 30, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 6

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday October 4
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Tulsa 15.2 17.1 15.0
Troy Georgia St. 16.2 15.3 16.8

 

Friday October 5
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Marshall Middle Tennesee 7.2 8.8 7.2
Louisville Georgia Tech -9.5 -8.4 -10.0
BYU Utah St. 0.1 -0.9 -0.5

 

Saturday October 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern South Alabama 11.5 11.0 11.3
Massachusetts South Florida -11.7 -11.8 -10.5
Wake Forest Clemson -19.6 -19.1 -22.5
Temple East Carolina 15.0 15.0 15.9
Ball St. Northern Illinois -8.3 -6.7 -8.5
Pittsburgh Syracuse -7.4 -6.3 -7.6
Central Florida SMU 26.2 26.8 27.6
Florida Atlantic Old Dominion 16.2 12.7 16.7
Ohio St. Indiana 33.1 31.6 34.2
North Carolina St. Boston College 2.0 4.4 1.9
Florida LSU 1.8 -0.4 1.4
South Carolina Missouri 0.6 1.1 -1.0
Michigan Maryland 21.9 22.1 23.2
Cincinnati Tulane 3.6 4.9 4.1
Kent St. Ohio U -13.5 -13.8 -14.7
Western Michigan Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.7 1.4
Central Michigan Buffalo -8.7 -8.3 -9.3
Akron Miami (O) 9.3 8.8 7.0
Virginia Tech Notre Dame -6.7 -4.1 -5.4
Rutgers Illinois -1.1 -1.7 -1.8
Boise St. San Diego St. 17.5 16.4 17.2
Colorado Arizona St. -2.3 0.6 -1.1
New Mexico St. Liberty -3.2 0.2 -3.3
UTEP North Texas -32.0 -31.3 -33.5
UCLA Washington -27.8 -25.9 -32.5
Stanford Utah 10.5 9.5 10.2
Nevada Fresno St. -16.5 -15.3 -16.8
Oregon St. Washington St. -20.0 -21.4 -21.0
Arizona California -3.1 -2.0 -2.3
UNLV New Mexico 8.2 8.1 8.5
Michigan St. Northwestern 13.3 13.2 12.8
West Virginia Kansas 18.7 19.3 20.3
Arkansas Alabama -37.0 -37.3 -40.1
Louisiana Tech UAB 8.6 8.8 9.7
Texas A&M Kentucky 2.1 1.8 2.2
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 6.4 6.4 7.1
Georgia Vanderbilt 33.8 29.8 35.0
Minnesota Iowa -6.5 -4.6 -5.8
Toledo Bowling Green 19.9 21.3 20.0
Mississippi St. Auburn 2.0 0.5 0.5
Air Force Navy -0.7 -3.0 -0.7
Ole Miss UL-Monroe 22.0 21.7 22.0
Texas (n) Oklahoma -8.3 -8.4 -9.5
Memphis Connecticut 28.9 30.4 30.9
Texas St. Louisiana -4.0 -2.7 -5.3
Rice UTSA -6.3 -7.7 -8.1
Baylor Kansas St. 2.3 1.7 3.0
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 14.7 14.2 15.2
Wisconsin Nebraska 26.8 25.8 29.0
San Jose St. Colorado St. -1.2 -1.2 -3.0
Hawaii Wyoming -11.6 -9.2 -12.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive ratings.  While past results are a major factor, these are not rankings based on what the teams have done so far.  Some teams will be ranked ahead of teams that beat them.  We are only trying to rate the teams based on what they should do in their next game.  Thus, our goal is to beat the spread and pick winners rather than be a report card for each team.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.0 137.9 141.9 139.9
2 Georgia 131.1 127.6 132.1 130.2
3 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
4 Clemson 129.2 126.5 129.8 128.5
5 Washington 125.6 123.5 127.5 125.5
6 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
7 Penn St. 123.5 120.8 124.0 122.8
8 Notre Dame 124.1 120.9 123.0 122.6
9 Oklahoma 120.8 119.5 121.4 120.6
10 Auburn 119.4 118.3 121.3 119.7
11 Michigan St. 120.3 118.3 119.8 119.5
12 Miami 118.3 117.0 118.2 117.9
13 Mississippi St. 118.4 115.7 118.8 117.7
14 Wisconsin 118.4 115.8 118.2 117.5
15 Stanford 118.2 115.5 118.4 117.4
16 L S U 115.4 115.6 116.6 115.9
17 Central Florida 115.0 115.1 115.5 115.2
18 Missouri 114.8 113.2 116.0 114.6
19 Boise St. 114.3 113.6 114.9 114.3
20 Virginia Tech 114.4 113.8 114.5 114.2
21 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
22 West Virginia 114.5 113.7 114.1 114.1
23 Boston College 114.8 112.0 114.6 113.8
24 Florida 114.2 112.3 115.0 113.8
25 N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.4 113.5 113.6
26 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
27 Oregon 112.9 112.9 113.6 113.1
28 Duke 113.8 111.5 113.2 112.9
29 Oklahoma St. 113.2 111.5 113.4 112.7
30 T C U 112.9 111.9 111.7 112.1
31 Iowa 113.2 110.7 112.4 112.1
32 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.0 111.9
33 Texas 112.5 111.1 111.9 111.8
34 Utah 110.7 108.9 111.2 110.3
35 Fresno St. 110.5 109.2 110.6 110.1
36 Georgia Tech 110.0 108.9 109.6 109.5
37 Syracuse 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5
38 Northwestern 110.0 108.2 110.0 109.4
39 Iowa State 109.8 108.0 109.2 109.0
40 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
41 U S C 109.4 107.6 108.6 108.5
42 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.2 107.9
43 Texas Tech 108.4 107.0 107.1 107.5
44 California 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.9
45 Purdue 107.5 105.9 107.1 106.8
46 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
47 Wake Forest 107.2 104.9 104.8 105.6
48 Utah St. 103.7 105.0 105.0 104.6
49 N. Texas 103.1 105.5 103.9 104.1
50 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
51 Colorado 103.1 104.7 104.2 104.0
52 Virginia 103.8 104.3 102.9 103.7
53 Minnesota 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5
54 Houston 102.9 103.7 103.1 103.2
55 BYU 102.3 102.6 103.0 102.6
56 Army 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.6
57 Kansas St. 103.3 101.9 102.1 102.4
58 Baylor 102.6 100.6 102.1 101.8
59 Memphis 100.8 102.6 101.5 101.6
60 Ole Miss 101.7 101.3 101.9 101.6
61 Arizona 101.9 100.3 102.1 101.4
62 Vanderbilt 100.2 100.8 100.1 100.4
63 San Diego St. 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.2
64 Pittsburgh 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.4
65 Appalachian St. 98.1 99.8 99.6 99.1
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.0 99.0
67 South Florida 98.2 100.3 98.2 98.9
68 Temple 98.7 98.6 99.4 98.9
69 Arkansas 100.1 97.6 98.8 98.8
70 N. Carolina 98.7 97.6 97.9 98.1
71 Toledo 97.6 98.9 97.5 98.0
72 Louisville 98.0 98.0 97.2 97.7
73 Buffalo 96.7 98.8 97.7 97.7
74 Kansas 98.8 97.3 96.8 97.6
75 Cincinnati 96.6 98.2 96.9 97.2
76 Florida Atlantic 96.8 97.2 97.2 97.1
77 Louisiana Tech 95.5 97.9 97.0 96.8
78 Tennessee 96.4 96.8 95.7 96.3
79 Navy 95.5 98.0 95.1 96.2
80 Wyoming 96.3 96.1 95.9 96.1
81 Marshall 94.3 97.0 95.3 95.6
82 Tulane 95.4 95.8 95.3 95.5
83 Akron 94.9 96.1 95.2 95.4
84 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.6 94.8 95.1
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.2 94.6 94.6
86 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.6 94.0 94.0
87 U C L A 94.8 94.6 92.0 93.8
88 Nebraska 94.6 93.0 92.2 93.2
89 Troy 92.1 93.5 93.6 93.1
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Air Force 91.8 92.0 91.4 91.7
92 Illinois 91.8 91.5 90.8 91.4
93 SMU 91.9 91.3 90.9 91.4
94 Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.4 90.1 90.9
95 Nevada 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.9
96 Middle Tennessee 90.1 91.2 91.1 90.8
97 U N L V 89.9 91.4 90.3 90.5
98 Tulsa 90.8 89.6 91.1 90.5
99 U A B 89.3 91.6 89.7 90.2
100 Arkansas St. 88.9 90.3 90.5 89.9
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 Georgia Southern 87.5 89.0 88.1 88.2
103 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 86.0 86.8
104 Central Michigan 85.5 88.0 86.0 86.5
105 East Carolina 86.2 86.1 86.0 86.1
106 Southern Miss. 84.5 87.6 85.3 85.8
107 W. Kentucky 83.9 87.1 85.1 85.4
108 New Mexico 84.7 86.3 84.8 85.3
109 Oregon St. 86.3 83.9 84.5 84.9
110 Old Dominion 83.6 87.5 83.4 84.9
111 Ball St. 84.1 86.5 83.8 84.8
112 Massachusetts 83.5 85.5 84.7 84.6
113 Colo. State 82.9 83.7 82.8 83.1
114 UL-Monroe 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.2
115 Hawaii 80.7 82.9 79.5 81.0
116 Liberty 81.1 79.9 81.3 80.8
117 U T S A 78.7 82.9 79.1 80.3
118 Bowling Green 80.2 80.1 80.0 80.1
119 Georgia St. 79.0 81.1 79.8 80.0
120 South Alabama 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
121 Coastal Carolina 78.7 81.5 79.3 79.8
122 Louisiana 77.8 79.7 78.8 78.8
123 San Jose St. 78.6 79.5 76.8 78.3
124 Kent St. 77.9 78.9 77.3 78.0
125 N. Mexico St. 74.9 77.1 75.0 75.7
126 Charlotte 74.4 76.6 74.3 75.1
127 Connecticut 74.9 75.2 73.6 74.6
128 Texas State 71.3 74.5 70.9 72.2
129 Rice 69.9 72.7 68.5 70.4
130 U T E P 68.6 71.7 68.0 69.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.0 115.1 115.5 115.2 1-0 4-0
South Florida 98.2 100.3 98.2 98.9 1-0 4-0
Temple 98.7 98.6 99.4 98.9 1-0 2-3
Cincinnati 96.6 98.2 96.9 97.2 1-0 5-0
East Carolina 86.2 86.1 86.0 86.1 0-1 2-2
Connecticut 74.9 75.2 73.6 74.6 0-2 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.7 103.1 103.2 0-0 3-1
Memphis 100.8 102.6 101.5 101.6 0-2 3-2
Navy 95.5 98.0 95.1 96.2 1-1 2-2
Tulane 95.4 95.8 95.3 95.5 1-0 2-3
SMU 91.9 91.3 90.9 91.4 1-0 2-3
Tulsa 90.8 89.6 91.1 90.5 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.6 96.2 95.6 95.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.2 126.5 129.8 128.5 1-0 4-0
Boston College 114.8 112.0 114.6 113.8 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.4 113.5 113.6 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 107.2 104.9 104.8 105.6 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.0 98.0 97.2 97.7 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 118.3 117.0 118.2 117.9 0-0 3-1
Virginia Tech 114.4 113.8 114.5 114.2 1-0 2-1
Duke 113.8 111.5 113.2 112.9 0-0 4-0
Georgia Tech 110.0 108.9 109.6 109.5 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.8 104.3 102.9 103.7 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.4 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 98.7 97.6 97.9 98.1 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.8 119.5 121.4 120.6 2-0 5-0
West Virginia 114.5 113.7 114.1 114.1 2-0 4-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 111.5 113.4 112.7 1-1 4-1
T C U 112.9 111.9 111.7 112.1 1-1 3-2
Texas 112.5 111.1 111.9 111.8 2-0 4-1
Iowa State 109.8 108.0 109.2 109.0 0-2 1-3
Texas Tech 108.4 107.0 107.1 107.5 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.3 101.9 102.1 102.4 0-2 2-3
Baylor 102.6 100.6 102.1 101.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas 98.8 97.3 96.8 97.6 0-2 2-3
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 2-0 5-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 2-0 4-1
Penn St. 123.5 120.8 124.0 122.8 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 120.3 118.3 119.8 119.5 2-0 3-1
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.0 99.0 1-1 4-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 86.0 86.8 0-2 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.4 115.8 118.2 117.5 1-0 3-1
Iowa 113.2 110.7 112.4 112.1 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 110.0 108.2 110.0 109.4 1-1 1-3
Purdue 107.5 105.9 107.1 106.8 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.6 93.0 92.2 93.2 0-2 0-4
Illinois 91.8 91.5 90.8 91.4 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 96.8 97.2 97.2 97.1 0-1 2-3
Marshall 94.3 97.0 95.3 95.6 1-0 3-1
Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.4 90.1 90.9 1-0 3-2
Middle Tennessee 90.1 91.2 91.1 90.8 1-0 2-2
W. Kentucky 83.9 87.1 85.1 85.4 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.6 87.5 83.4 84.9 0-2 1-4
Charlotte 74.4 76.6 74.3 75.1 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 103.1 105.5 103.9 104.1 0-1 4-1
Louisiana Tech 95.5 97.9 97.0 96.8 1-0 3-1
U A B 89.3 91.6 89.7 90.2 1-0 3-1
Southern Miss. 84.5 87.6 85.3 85.8 1-0 2-2
U T S A 78.7 82.9 79.1 80.3 1-0 2-3
Rice 69.9 72.7 68.5 70.4 0-1 1-4
U T E P 68.6 71.7 68.0 69.4 0-1 0-5
CUSA Averages 85.9 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.1 120.9 123.0 122.6 x 5-0
BYU 102.3 102.6 103.0 102.6 x 3-2
Army 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.6 x 3-2
Massachusetts 83.5 85.5 84.7 84.6 x 2-4
Liberty 81.1 79.9 81.3 80.8 x 2-2
N. Mexico St. 74.9 77.1 75.0 75.7 x 1-4
Independents Averages 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.7 98.8 97.7 97.7 1-0 4-1
Akron 94.9 96.1 95.2 95.4 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.9 95.2 94.6 94.6 0-0 2-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-1 1-4
Bowling Green 80.2 80.1 80.0 80.1 0-1 1-4
Kent St. 77.9 78.9 77.3 78.0 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.6 98.9 97.5 98.0 0-0 2-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.6 94.8 95.1 2-0 2-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.6 94.0 94.0 0-2 2-3
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 1-0 3-2
Central Michigan 85.5 88.0 86.0 86.5 0-1 1-4
Ball St. 84.1 86.5 83.8 84.8 1-0 2-3
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 114.3 113.6 114.9 114.3 1-0 3-1
Utah St. 103.7 105.0 105.0 104.6 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.3 96.1 95.9 96.1 0-1 2-3
Air Force 91.8 92.0 91.4 91.7 0-2 1-3
New Mexico 84.7 86.3 84.8 85.3 0-0 2-2
Colo. State 82.9 83.7 82.8 83.1 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.5 109.2 110.6 110.1 0-0 3-1
San Diego St. 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.2 0-0 3-1
Nevada 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.9 1-0 3-2
U N L V 89.9 91.4 90.3 90.5 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.7 82.9 79.5 81.0 2-0 5-1
San Jose St. 78.6 79.5 76.8 78.3 0-1 0-4
MWC Averages 93.7 94.2 93.6 93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.6 123.5 127.5 125.5 2-0 4-1
Stanford 118.2 115.5 118.4 117.4 2-0 4-1
Oregon 112.9 112.9 113.6 113.1 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 1-1 4-1
California 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.9 0-1 3-1
Oregon St. 86.3 83.9 84.5 84.9 0-2 1-4
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 110.7 108.9 111.2 110.3 0-2 2-2
U S C 109.4 107.6 108.6 108.5 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.2 107.9 1-1 3-2
Colorado 103.1 104.7 104.2 104.0 1-0 4-0
Arizona 101.9 100.3 102.1 101.4 1-1 2-3
U C L A 94.8 94.6 92.0 93.8 0-1 0-4
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.0 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.1 127.6 132.1 130.2 3-0 5-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 116.0 114.6 0-1 3-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-0 5-0
Florida 114.2 112.3 115.0 113.8 2-1 4-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.0 111.9 1-2 2-2
Vanderbilt 100.2 100.8 100.1 100.4 0-1 3-2
Tennessee 96.4 96.8 95.7 96.3 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.0 137.9 141.9 139.9 2-0 5-0
Auburn 119.4 118.3 121.3 119.7 1-1 4-1
Mississippi St. 118.4 115.7 118.8 117.7 0-2 3-2
L S U 115.4 115.6 116.6 115.9 2-0 5-0
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 1-1 3-2
Ole Miss 101.7 101.3 101.9 101.6 0-2 3-2
Arkansas 100.1 97.6 98.8 98.8 0-2 1-4
SEC Averages 113.7 112.4 114.2 113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.1 99.8 99.6 99.1 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.5 93.6 93.1 2-0 4-1
Georgia Southern 87.5 89.0 88.1 88.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 79.0 81.1 79.8 80.0 1-0 2-3
Coastal Carolina 78.7 81.5 79.3 79.8 1-1 3-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.9 90.3 90.5 89.9 0-1 3-2
UL-Monroe 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.2 0-2 2-3
South Alabama 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 1-4
Louisiana 77.8 79.7 78.8 78.8 0-1 1-3
Texas State 71.3 74.5 70.9 72.2 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.4 85.2 84.3 84.3

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.7 112.4 114.2 113.4
2 ACC 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
3 B12 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
5 P-12 107.4 106.0 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.6 96.2 95.6 95.8
7 IND 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.8
8 MWC 93.7 94.2 93.6 93.8