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Charlotte | Radford | 3.7 |
Oklahoma St. | North Texas | 5.3 |
Oregon | Wisconsin | 5.0 |
Southern Utah | Eastern Kentucky | 4.1 |
March 21, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Tuesday, March 21, 2023
March 19, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 19, 2023
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Baylor | Creighton | -0.3 |
Colorado | Utah Valley | 4.7 |
Connecticut | Saint Mary’s | 4.2 |
Duquesne | Rice | 5.5 |
Eastern Kentucky | Cleveland St. | 0.8 |
Florida Atlantic | Fairleigh Dickinson | 18.7 |
Gonzaga | TCU | 4.4 |
Indiana | Miami (Fla) | 1.8 |
Kansas St. | Kentucky | -0.2 |
Marquette | Michigan St. | 3.2 |
North Texas | Sam Houston St. | 3.4 |
Oklahoma St. | Eastern Washington | 11.5 |
Oregon | Central Florida | 4.6 |
Stetson | Milwaukee | 2.7 |
Tarleton St. | Radford | 1.1 |
UAB | Morehead St. | 16.0 |
Wisconsin | Liberty | 2.9 |
Xavier | Pittsburgh | 5.4 |
March 15, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 15, 2023
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Texas Southern | Fairleigh Dickinson | 1.4 |
Clemson | Morehead St. | 17.0 |
Florida | Central Florida | 4.5 |
Youngstown St. | Oklahoma St. | -6.2 |
North Texas | Alcorn St. | 16.3 |
Cincinnati | Virginia Tech | 4.8 |
Santa Clara | Sam Houston St.. | 1.8 |
Arizona St. | Nevada | -0.1 |
New Mexico | Utah Valley | 5.3 |
Oregon | UC Irvine | 8.8 |
March 11, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special
With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.
Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.
Team | NET | COM | SOS | NSOS | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Away | Today |
Arizona St. | 66 | 66 | 62 | 123 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 5-0 | 8-1 | 12-7 | |
Clemson | 57 | 63 | 123 | 312 | 4-4 | 3-2 | 7-2 | 9-2 | 8-9 | |
Mississippi St. | 49 | 50 | 43 | 204 | 4-8 | 4-3 | 5-1 | 8-0 | 9-8 | |
Nevada | 37 | 42 | 24 | 70 | 4-5 | 4-3 | 10-2 | 3-0 | 8-9 | |
North Carolina | 46 | 44 | 12 | 18 | 2-9 | 5-4 | 7-0 | 6-0 | 8-10 | |
North Texas | 38 | 46 | 83 | 112 | 1-3 | 3-2 | 11-1 | 9-1 | 14-5 | |
Oklahoma St. | 43 | 38 | 11 | 158 | 6-12 | 4-2 | 3-1 | 5-0 | 7-10 | |
Oregon | 47 | 40 | 28 | 7 | 2-9 | 7-4 | 5-1 | 5-0 | 6-9 | |
Pittsburgh | 67 | 77 | 86 | 122 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 5-1 | 10-1 | 8-8 | |
Rutgers | 40 | 35 | 48 | 219 | 5-7 | 5-3 | 2-4 | 7-0 | 5-9 | |
UAB | 52 | 54 | 119 | 293 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 9-1 | 12-1 | 10-6 | FAU |
Utah St. | 18 | 18 | 20 | 29 | 2-4 | 9-1 | 13-0 | 1-2 | 12-5 | SDSU |
Vanderbilt | 79 | 79 | 6 | 12 | 5-9 | 5-1 | 5-2 | 5-1 | 8-8 | TXAM |
Wisconsin | 82 | 75 | 36 | 118 | 6-8 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 5-0 | 8-8 |
These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.
Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.
In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.
Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.
If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.
March 10, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 3/10/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | Purdue | ||
2 | UCLA | Texas | Baylor | Arizona | ||
3 | Kansas St. | Gonzaga | Marquette | Tennessee | ||
4 | Connecticut | Xavier | Virginia | Indiana | ||
5 | Iowa St. | Miami (Fla) | San Diego St. | TCU | ||
6 | Saint Mary’s | Creighton | Kentucky | Duke | ||
7 | Texas A&M | Michigan St. | Northwestern | Missouri | ||
8 | Maryland | Illinois | Arkansas | Iowa | ||
9 | Florida Atlantic | Memphis | Auburn | Boise St. | ||
10 | West Virginia | Providence | North Carolina St. | USC | ||
11 | Utah St. | Rutgers | Pittsburgh | Mississippi St. | Penn St. | Arizona St. |
12 | Oral Roberts | Drake | Charleston | VCU | ||
13 | Toledo | Utah Valley | Iona | Yale | ||
14 | Louisiana | Furman | UC Santa Barbara | Colgate | ||
15 | Kennesaw St. | Vermont | UNC Asheville | Montana St. | ||
16 | N. Kentucky | Texas A&M-CC | SE Missouri St. | Grambling | Howard | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Starting Today, First Four Out and Next Four Out give way to the teams that can still work their way into the Field of 68 if they keep winning. There are six teams on the Bubble but not currently in the Bracket Prediction above. Additionally, there is a definite potential bid-stealer.
Teams (In Order) that can still play their way into the Field:
Oklahoma St. |
Clemson |
Oregon |
North Texas |
Vanderbilt |
UAB |
Potential Bid-Stealer: Ohio St.
Potential At-large addition if they lose in their tournament: Florida Atlantic
March 9, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 3/9/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | Purdue | ||
2 | UCLA | Texas | Baylor | Arizona | ||
3 | Kansas St. | Gonzaga | Marquette | Tennessee | ||
4 | Connecticut | Xavier | Indiana | Virginia | ||
5 | San Diego St. | Miami (Fla) | Saint Mary’s | Iowa St. | ||
6 | TCU | Creighton | Kentucky | Texas A&M | ||
7 | Duke | Michigan St. | Northwestern | Maryland | ||
8 | Illinois | Missouri | Arkansas | Iowa | ||
9 | Auburn | West Virginia | Florida Atlantic | Memphis | ||
10 | Boise St. | Providence | North Carolina St. | USC | ||
11 | Pittsburgh | Mississippi St. | Nevada | Penn St. | Utah St. | Rutgers |
12 | Oral Roberts | Drake | Charleston | VCU | ||
13 | Utah Valley | Toledo | Iona | Yale | ||
14 | Louisiana | Furman | UC Santa Barbara | Colgate | ||
15 | Kennesaw St. | Vermont | UNC Asheville | Montana St. | ||
16 | N. Kentucky | Texas A&M-CC | SE Missouri St. | Grambling | Howard | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St. USC, Pittsburgh, Mississippi St.
Last 4 In: Nevada, Penn St., Utah St., Rutgers
First 4 Out: Oklahoma St., North Carolina, Arizona St., Wisconsin
Next 4 Out: Clemson, Oregon, Michigan, North Texas
Note: Vanderbilt replaces Wisconsin in this list, as the Badgers are eliminated from the Bubble, moving Clemson up one notch, and Vanderbilt as the last of the NFO. Technically, UW still has the fourth highest PiRate Bracketology Score not in the field, but they cannot move up after being eliminated by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. The other teams on the Bubble can continue to improve their resumes.
March 6, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 3/6/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | Purdue | ||
2 | UCLA | Texas | Baylor | Arizona | ||
3 | Marquette | Kansas St. | Tennessee | Gonzaga | ||
4 | Connecticut | Xavier | Indiana | Virginia | ||
5 | San Diego St. | Saint Mary’s | Miami (Fla) | TCU | ||
6 | Iowa St. | Duke | Creighton | Texas A&M | ||
7 | Kentucky | Michigan St. | Northwestern | Maryland | ||
8 | Illinois | Iowa | Missouri | Arkansas | ||
9 | Florida Atlantic | Boise St. | Auburn | Providence | ||
10 | Memphis | West Virginia | North Carolina St. | USC | ||
11 | Pittsburgh | Rutgers | Mississippi St. | Nevada | Wisconsin | Penn St. |
12 | Oral Roberts | VCU | Drake | Hofstra | ||
13 | Utah Valley | Toledo | Iona | Louisiana | ||
14 | Yale | Furman | UC Santa Barbara | Kennesaw St. | ||
15 | Colgate | Vermont | Montana St. | Youngstown St. | ||
16 | UNC Asheville | Texas A&M-CC | SE Missouri St. | Grambling | Howard | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St., USC, Pittsburgh, Rutgers
Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn St.
First 4 Out: Utah St., Arizona St., Oklahoma St., North Carolina
Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt
March 5, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 3/5/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | UCLA | ||
2 | Purdue | Texas | Baylor | Arizona | ||
3 | Marquette | Kansas St. | Tennessee | Gonzaga | ||
4 | Connecticut | Xavier | Indiana | Virginia | ||
5 | San Diego St. | Saint Mary’s | Iowa St. | Miami (Fla) | ||
6 | TCU | Creighton | Kentucky | Duke | ||
7 | Texas A&M | Michigan St. | Iowa | Northwestern | ||
8 | Maryland | Missouri | Illinois | Arkansas | ||
9 | Florida Atlantic | Boise St. | Auburn | Providence | ||
10 | West Virginia | Memphis | USC | Rutgers | ||
11 | North Carolina St. | Pittsburgh | Mississippi St. | Nevada | Utah St. | Arizona St. |
12 | Oral Roberts | Hofstra | VCU | Bradley | ||
13 | Kennesaw St. | Utah Valley | Toledo | Iona | ||
14 | Louisiana | Yale | UC Santa Barbara | Furman | ||
15 | Colgate | E. Washington | Vermont | Youngstown St. | ||
16 | UNC Asheville | Grambling | Howard | Texas A&M-CC | SE Missouri St. | Fairleigh-Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes: USC, Rutgers, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh
Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Utah St., Arizona St.
First 4 Out: Wisconsin, Oklahoma St., Penn St., North Carolina
Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt
March 3, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 3/3/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | Purdue | ||
2 | UCLA | Texas | Baylor | Arizona | ||
3 | Kansas St. | Tennessee | Marquette | Gonzaga | ||
4 | Connecticut | Xavier | Indiana | Virginia | ||
5 | TCU | San Diego St. | Saint Mary’s | Miami (Fla) | ||
6 | Creighton | Kentucky | Iowa St. | Duke | ||
7 | Michigan St. | Texas A&M | Maryland | Iowa | ||
8 | Northwestern | Missouri | Illinois | Boise St. | ||
9 | Providence | Arkansas | Florida Atlantic | Memphis | ||
10 | North Carolina St. | Nevada | USC | West Virginia | ||
11 | Auburn | Pittsburgh | Mississippi St. | Rutgers | Arizona St. | Wisconsin |
12 | Oral Roberts | Bradley | VCU | Iona | ||
13 | Southern Miss. | Hofstra | Toledo | Utah Valley | ||
14 | Furman | UC-Irvine | Colgate | Youngstown St. | ||
15 | Kennesaw St. | Vermont | E. Washington | Penn | ||
16 | UNC Asheville | Grambling | Texas A&M-CC | Morehead St. | Howard | Fairleigh-Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes: USC, West Virginia, Auburn, Pittsburgh
Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Rutgers, Arizona St., Wisconsin
First 4 Out: North Carolina, Utah St., Penn State, Michigan
Next 4 Out: Oklahoma St., Oregon, Clemson, New Mexico
February 19, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 19, 2023
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Bellarmine | Central Arkansas | 8.4 |
Boise St. | UNLV | 8.3 |
Butler | Georgetown | 8.5 |
Central Florida | Cincinnati | 2.7 |
Chicago St. | Hartford | 13.6 |
Cleveland St. | Northern Kentucky | 2.5 |
Detroit | IUPUI | 17.3 |
Drake | Belmont | 6.8 |
Fairfield | Manhattan | 5.8 |
Furman | East Tennessee St. | 13.1 |
Houston | Memphis | 11.6 |
Illinois Chicago | Valparaiso | 1.3 |
Marist | Niagara | -1.9 |
Mount St. Mary’s | Canisius | 1.8 |
Nebraska | Maryland | -5.3 |
North Carolina St. | North Carolina | 1.9 |
Northwestern | Iowa | 0.1 |
Purdue | Ohio St. | 9.5 |
Purdue Ft. Wayne | Wright St. | -0.3 |
Quinnipiac | Rider | 3.4 |
Saint Peter’s | Iona | -11.8 |
SMU | East Carolina | 4.4 |
Southern Illinois | Bradley | -2.6 |
St. Bonaventure | George Washington | 6.2 |
Temple | Tulsa | 13.4 |
Washington St. | Oregon | 0.7 |