The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 17, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:58 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

Ohio

-19.2

-18.6

-19.6

Northern Illinois

Eastern Michigan

7.8

7.0

7.7

 

 

Wednesday

November 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo

Toledo

7.2

7.6

7.9

Miami (O)

Akron

28.6

27.9

30.7

 

 

Thursday

November 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

North Carolina St.

-1.4

-2.0

-0.8

 

 

Friday

November 22

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wyoming

Colorado St.

13.6

12.2

13.5

 

 

Saturday

November 23

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Texas St.

32.6

31.4

33.0

Arizona

Utah

-26.6

-25.9

-27.9

Arizona St.

Oregon

-12.5

-13.4

-13.7

Arkansas St.

Georgia Southern

-3.2

-3.0

-3.3

Baylor

Texas

4.9

4.7

4.3

Charlotte

Marshall

-5.1

-4.4

-5.6

Cincinnati

Temple

10.3

10.4

9.5

Colorado

Washington

-14.7

-14.5

-15.9

Connecticut

East Carolina

-10.7

-9.3

-12.1

Florida Int’l.

Miami (Fla.)

-21.9

-21.8

-23.4

Fresno St.

Nevada

9.6

8.9

10.1

Georgia

Texas A&M

12.9

12.8

14.3

Georgia St.

South Alabama

18.7

17.2

18.5

Hawaii

San Diego St.

1.8

1.5

1.0

Indiana

Michigan

-11.4

-10.9

-11.7

Iowa

Illinois

17.8

15.2

18.0

Iowa St.

Kansas

22.7

22.2

23.3

Kent St.

Ball St.

0.0

0.4

0.5

Louisiana

Troy

9.2

8.9

9.8

Louisville

Syracuse

0.9

1.5

1.6

LSU

Arkansas

47.1

45.0

48.0

Maryland

Nebraska

-2.8

-4.4

-3.4

Massachusetts

BYU

-43.3

-42.0

-44.6

Middle Tennessee

Old Dominion

17.3

16.1

16.8

Missouri

Tennessee

3.4

1.0

3.2

Navy

SMU

-4.8

-2.2

-4.6

New Mexico

Air Force

-22.0

-21.4

-24.2

New Mexico St.

UTEP

8.7

6.8

8.1

Northwestern

Minnesota

-14.6

-15.4

-16.0

Notre Dame

Boston College

19.4

18.6

19.2

Ohio St.

Penn St.

19.8

20.0

21.3

Oklahoma

TCU

18.4

15.3

17.6

Rice

North Texas

-4.9

-3.6

-5.7

Rutgers

Michigan St.

-21.5

-20.8

-21.9

South Florida

Memphis

-13.6

-12.8

-14.3

Southern Miss.

Western Kentucky

6.8

4.8

5.6

Stanford

California

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

Texas Tech

Kansas St.

-1.6

-1.1

-2.3

Tulane

Central Florida

-9.5

-8.1

-9.6

Tulsa

Houston

0.6

0.7

0.1

UAB

Louisiana Tech

-4.4

-2.6

-4.1

UL-Monroe

Coastal Carolina

1.4

0.5

0.9

UNLV

San Jose St.

-2.5

-3.0

-3.3

USC

UCLA

12.2

12.9

13.2

Utah St.

Boise St.

-3.6

-4.3

-2.9

UTSA

Florida Atlantic

-19.8

-18.1

-21.3

Virginia

Liberty

18.6

17.4

18.3

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

5.0

5.3

5.6

Wake Forest

Duke

6.2

6.2

6.5

Washington St.

Oregon St.

15.1

13.3

15.7

West Virginia

Oklahoma St.

-5.8

-6.7

-6.0

Wisconsin

Purdue

19.5

19.4

20.0

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Alabama

Western Carolina

56

Auburn

Samford

49

Kentucky

UT-Martin

29

Mississippi St.

Abilene Christian

35

North Carolina

Mercer

38

Vanderbilt

East Tennessee

21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

2

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

3

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

4

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

5

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

8

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

9

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

10

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

11

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

12

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

13

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

14

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

15

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

16

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

17

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

18

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

19

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

20

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

21

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

22

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

23

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

24

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

25

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

27

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

28

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

29

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

30

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

31

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

33

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

34

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

35

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

36

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

37

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

38

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

39

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

40

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

41

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

42

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

43

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

45

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

46

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

47

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

48

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

49

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

50

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

51

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

52

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

53

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

54

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

55

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

56

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

57

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

58

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

59

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

60

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

61

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

62

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

63

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

64

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

65

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

67

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

68

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

69

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

70

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

71

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

72

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

74

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

75

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

79

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

80

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

82

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

83

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

84

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

85

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

86

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

87

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

88

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

89

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

90

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

91

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

92

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

93

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

94

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

95

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

98

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

99

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

101

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

102

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

103

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

104

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

105

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

106

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

107

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

108

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

109

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

111

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

112

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

114

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

115

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

116

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

118

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

119

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

122

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

124

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

125

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

126

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

128

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

129

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

130

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

6-0

9-1

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

4-2

7-3

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

2-4

4-6

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

5-1

9-1

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

5-1

9-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

3-3

6-4

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

5-1

7-2

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

1-5

3-7

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

97.0

97.7

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

8-0

11-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

4-4

6-5

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

3-3

7-3

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

3-4

5-5

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

1-5

4-6

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

4-3

6-4

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

1-5

4-6

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

4-3

6-4

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

5-2

7-3

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

5-2

7-3

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

3-4

4-6

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

4-2

7-3

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

2-5

4-6

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

1-6

2-8

ACC Averages

105.0

104.4

105.3

104.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

6-1

9-1

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

4-3

6-4

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

6-1

9-1

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

4-3

6-4

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

4-3

7-3

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

3-4

6-4

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

3-4

5-5

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

2-5

4-6

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

2-5

4-6

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

1-6

3-7

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

7-0

10-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

5-2

8-2

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

6-1

9-1

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

4-3

7-3

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

2-5

4-6

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

0-7

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

5-2

8-2

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

6-1

9-1

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

4-3

7-3

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

4-3

6-4

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

2-5

4-6

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

0-7

2-8

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

5-1

7-3

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

4-2

6-4

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

2-4

3-7

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

5-1

7-3

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

5-1

8-2

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

4-2

7-3

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

3-3

4-6

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

1-5

1-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

3-3

4-6

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

0-7

1-9

CUSA Averages

86.5

87.1

86.9

86.8

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

x

8-2

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

x

6-4

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

x

5-6

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

x

1-9

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

x

1-10

Indep. Averages

89.9

90.5

89.6

90.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

3-3

5-5

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

3-3

4-6

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

5-1

6-4

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

3-3

4-6

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

2-4

3-7

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

0-6

0-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

5-2

7-4

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-3

4-6

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

3-3

4-6

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

5-2

7-4

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

3-3

6-4

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

2-4

5-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.9

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

6-0

9-1

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

5-1

8-2

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

5-1

6-4

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

3-3

6-4

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

3-3

4-6

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

5-2

8-2

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

4-3

7-4

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

2-4

4-6

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

1-5

4-6

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

3-3

6-4

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

1-6

2-8

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.5

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

7-0

9-1

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

2-5

5-5

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

2-5

5-5

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

3-5

4-6

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

4-3

5-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

6-1

9-1

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

6-2

7-4

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

2-5

5-5

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

4-3

4-6

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-5

4-6

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6-1

9-1

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

7-2

9-2

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

3-3

5-5

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

2-4

5-5

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

3-5

5-5

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

3-5

4-7

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

6-0

10-0

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

6-1

9-1

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

4-3

7-3

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

4-2

7-3

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

2-5

4-6

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

2-5

4-7

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

113.7

111.9

113.5

113.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

5-1

9-1

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

4-2

6-4

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

3-3

5-5

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

3-3

6-4

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

1-5

4-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

5-1

8-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

4-2

6-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

3-3

4-6

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

2-4

3-7

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

0-6

1-9

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.0

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.9

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.0

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.8

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

SMU

5

Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgia could be headed to the playoffs if they both win out, and then Georgia pulls off a mild upset in the SEC Championship Game. There is also a small chance that Alabama could sneak back into the picture if LSU beats Georgia, and then Alabama thrashes Auburn on The Plains to show the Committee that losing Tua Tagovailoa didn’t weaken the Tide enough to knock them out of the Playoff picture. Either way, there is a decent chance that the SEC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially if Oklahoma loses another game and Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12.

Alabama and Florida are almost assured of receiving New Year’s Six Bowl Bids, and if Alabama sneaks into the Playoffs, then Georgia will replace the Tide in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Citrus bowl would then take Auburn. Texas A&M is almost a cinch to go to the Texas Bowl this year, where some backroom deals are being made to place Texas in there as a dream match-up. Tennessee is one win away from a possible destination in Jacksonville in the Gator Bowl, while Kentucky needs only to beat UT-Martin this week to earn a trip to a possible Outback Bowl game against a possible neighboring rival.

At this point, there are no more happy guarantees for the great SEC. Mississippi State is going to beat Abilene Christian this weekend to get to 5-6, but then they must turn around and face Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day, while the Rebels get this week off to prepare an extra few days. The way the two teams are playing presently, Ole Miss looks like the superior team, so we will count out Mississippi State at 5-7.

Missouri is 5-5, and the Tigers still have to play Arkansas, so even though they have lost four consecutive games, Mizzou is going to be 6-6. The Tigers are still in limbo with the NCAA. While Missouri is on probation and has a bowl ban, their legal team has filed an appeal, and the NCAA has yet to rule on it and might not rule on it until after bowl bids have been issued. It looks like the NCAA is going to turn the other cheek to help the SEC out, and then rule after the bowl season on the matter, or they could rule that Missouri has done enough in-house corrections to get a reprieve. Then, again, there is a lot of dissension going on in Columbia, and the school may choose to close up shop after the Arkansas game and self-impose on taking a meaningless bowl game at 6-6.

The SEC has agreements with 11 bowls not including the Playoffs. If two SEC teams make the Playoffs, then the SEC will have the need for 13 bowl eligible teams and will most likely have eight or nine bowl eligible teams. If Maalox wants to create a nice promotion, they will send free cases of their product to the members of the Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls, and possibly the Belk Bowl.

With the possibility of some really weak bowl match-ups, you can expect this season to produce at least one if not two or three “backroom” deals to place better at-large teams in the bowls where the opponent is a Power Five team. A 9-3 Power Conference team playing a 6-6 Group of 5 team just cannot be allowed.

What you see in our Bowl Projections are the raw projections strictly following the bowl rules. As information leaks about potential back-room deals, we will try to stay on top of all the news and rumors.

Here is a conference by conference look at the bowl eligible teams and those that can still become bowl eligible.

American Athletic

Bowl Eligible: 7
Memphis, SMU, Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Temple

Still Alive: South Florida

If either Memphis or Cincinnati win out to capture the AAC Title, that team will head to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 best champion. SMU could also earn this bid if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, while the Mustangs win out, including beating Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Navy has a remote chance at getting to the Cotton Bowl. Memphis and SMU would both have to lose in the regular season, while Navy wins out and beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game, and Boise State would have to lose in the Mountain West.
South Florida merely has to beat Memphis and Central Florida to earn a bowl, so it isn’t going to be a Bulls Market this year.

Atlantic Coast (+ Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh

Still Alive: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, N. Carolina St., and Syracuse

Clemson has the best chance of any team of going 13-0 before the Playoffs, but we are starting to see just a little extra possibility that if Virginia Tech takes care of Pittsburgh and Virginia, the Hokies will be a little more formidable than the experts are given them credit for being. Va. Tech was dismissed for dead earlier in the season, but Justin Fuente has done an incredible job re-shaping the Hokie team to where they look like the second best team in the league. If Tech beats Pitt and Virginia, they will most likely be the Orange Bowl representative even if Clemson pounds them in the ACC Championship Game.

At this point, our forecast calls for North Carolina to top Mercer and NC State to finish 6-6 and grab the last bowl spot that goes to the ACC. We don’t see a path to 6-6 for the other teams still alive.

Big 12

Bowl Eligible: 6
Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St.

Still Alive: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The PiRate Ratings do not forecast Oklahoma to win out and sneak into the Playoffs, but don’t assume we are picking Baylor to get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have to go to Stillwater to face the much-improved Cowboys, and we believe Oklahoma St. has a very decent chance to pull off the upset and ruin the league’s chances to get into the Playoffs.

Of the teams still fighting for bowl eligibility, we believe TCU can beat West Virginia in Fort Worth to get their sixth win, but Tech and the Mountaineers might both be staring at 5-7 seasons.

Big Ten

Bowl Eligible: 7

Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Still Alive: Michigan St., Nebraska, Purdue

This is the most interesting race for the Playoffs and Bowl seeding. First, Ohio State must now close with wins against Penn State, Michigan, and the Western Division Champion in the Conference Championship Game to guarantee a Playoff spot. Only the Penn State game is in the Giant Horseshoe. We remember 50 years ago quite well, when an 8-0 Ohio State team that many were calling the greatest college football team since Army in 1945, went to the Big House to play a two-loss Michigan team that remembered being thrashed in Columbus the previous year. That Ohio State team was a double-digit favorite and got thrashed by a Michigan defense that played well over its potential that day.

Assuming Ohio State handles Penn State this weekend, could history repeat itself 50 years later? Of course, James Franklin has a history of getting underdog teams psyched up to win big road games, so the Nittany Lions could still be in the Big Ten Championship picture.

On the other side, Minnesota still controls its own destiny, but then so does Wisconsin. The Gophers did everything but beat Iowa in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes frequently win games at home with final stats that on paper look like they lost by a couple of touchdowns. The Gophers get Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

There is even a bizarre scenario where Illinois could win the West Division flag. This requires Minnesota to lose to Northwestern and Wisconsin; for Wisconsin to lose to Purdue, while the Illini beat Iowa and Northwestern. The chances for this to happen are about the same as Lovie Smith taking over Alabama for Nick Saban in 2020.

Michigan State is now 4-6, and the Spartans look like an offense from the days of one platoon football. Their defense has fallen apart with all the extra snaps it has had to face, but now Sparty catches a break. MSU closes with Rutgers and Maryland, so the Green and White have about a 95% chance of improving to 6-6 and getting a bottom tier bowl bid.

Nebraska is 4-6 with games remaining against Maryland and Iowa. We have a suspicion that Scott Frost will have his team prepared to face the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium and will pull off the upset to close at 6-6 and get the final bowl bid in this league.

Purdue must beat both Wisconsin and Indiana to get to 6-6, and by the time they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, their long snapper might be the backup quarterback. Better luck next year Boilermakers.

Because the Big Ten has the most strict bowl tie-ins, certain teams cannot go to certain bowls if they have been to them in the last five years. What this means is:

The Citrus Bowl will not invite Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State

The Outback Bowl will not invite Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Holiday Bowl will not invite Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Gator Bowl will not invite Iowa or Penn St.

The Pinstripe Bowl will not invite Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin

The Redbox Bowl will not invite Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, or Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl will not invite Minnesota

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss., UAB

Still Alive: Charlotte, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UTSA

Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, so it the Thundering Herd beat Charlotte and FIU, they will be East Division champs. In the West, Louisiana Tech controls their destiny, but if the Bulldogs lose to UAB, then Southern Miss can win out and take the division flag.

Of the teams still alive, Charlotte and North Texas have the best chances to get to six wins, while FIU and UTSA have close to zero chances to do so. Because this league could have eight bowl eligible teams, and they have just five primary tie-ins, two or three teams will get at-large invitations, and deals could be made to send better teams to at-large spots.

Independents (not Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 2
BYU, Liberty

Still Alive: Army

BYU has earned its guaranteed Hawaii Bowl bid with its sixth win. Liberty doesn’t have a primary bowl bid, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl. Since the AAC is likely to send its champion to the Cotton Bowl, the Cure Bowl bid could be there for Liberty.

Army must beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Navy to get to 7-6. We don’t see it happening this year.

Mid-American

Bowl Eligible: 4
Miami (O), Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive: Buffalo, Kent St., Ohio, Ball St., Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois

Not having a dominating team and having to play games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays have led to MACtion being one big season-long toss-up with a lot of parity. Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division title, as the Red Hawks hold all potential tiebreakers over Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St. The West is a different story as four teams are still technically alive. Western Michigan will win the division if the Broncos beat both Ohio and Northern Illinois, but both games are on the road, and we don’t believe WMU will go 2-0.

Central Michigan must win at Ball State and then beat Toledo at home and then hope that WMU loses to Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois and Toledo are still mathematically alive in the race but need multiple things to happen to sneak into the top spot in the West.

There are still six teams trying to become eligible, and by the time the regular season concludes, we believe the MAC will have eight bowl eligible teams with five teams at 6-6. Not all these 6-6 teams will have bowl spots available to them, but the MAC should receive at least one extra bowl invitation and possibly two.

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Utah St., Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St.

Still Alive: Colorado St., Fresno St., San Jose St.

Boise State must win out and hope for the AAC to implode and produce a two-loss league champion in order for the Broncos to ascend to the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. could be 12-1 and relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl. If that happens, and the Pac-12 has a 6-6 team available, there is a chance that a deal could be made to send the Pac-12 team east and bring a 10 or 11-win team like Appalachian State or SMU to Vegas. Or, Boise State could be sent east to play in a Liberty, Music City, or Belk Bowl where no SEC team is available.

Air Force is looking at 10-2 and another potential bad bowl match-up, and because the Falcons can basically bring the entire Academy, they can fill up a bowl stadium even if it’s 1,500 miles from Colorado Springs.

In the West, the winner of the San Diego State-Hawaii game this week gets to face Boise State with a chance for the big upset. Technically, Air Force and Utah State are still alive in the Mountain, but Boise State has to lose twice for that to happen.
Of the three teams still with a chance to become bowl eligible, Colorado State has to beat both Wyoming and Boise State, so the Rams are staying home for the holidays. Fresno State and San Jose State are looking at a season finale where they will face off in San Jose with probably 5-6 records. The Spartans look like the stronger team in November, so we’ll give SJSU the final bid.

Pac-12

Bowl Eligible: 4
Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah

Still Alive: California, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St. Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, UCLA

The entire conference is still alive for a bowl! That’s a blessing and a curse. There is so much parity that when USC beat Utah, they severely damaged this league’s chance to sneak a team into the Playoffs. Even if either Utah or Oregon wins out to finish 12-1, they are almost assuredly relegated to Pasadena and not to the Playoffs. Oregon dominated Auburn until the final few minutes to start the season, and that game is just as important as the Utah loss to the Trojans.

Of the eight remaining teams not yet bowl eligible, we believe that three will get to six wins. Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA don’t look like they have enough talent to win the games they must win to get to 6-6. Any 6-6 team in this league will be in a bowl.

Southeastern

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M

Still Alive: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi St.

See above for the explanation for the SEC. We believe nine teams will be bowl eligible, or eight if Missouri either self-imposes a bowl ban, or the NCAA denies their appeal before December.

Sunbelt

Bowl Eligible: 5
Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St.. Arkansas St., Louisiana

Still Alive: Coastal Carolina, Troy, UL-Monroe

It will take a monumental chain of events for Appy State and Lousiana not to meet in the SBC Championship Game. Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Troy all still hold miniscule division title hopes in the East, while Arkansas St. and UL-Monroe are still mathematically alive in the West.

This is the only conference where we don’t see an additional team still alive becoming bowl eligible.

This Week’s Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Nevada]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Central Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Ball St.

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

California

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Western Kentucky

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Central Florida

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Charlotte]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Wake Forest

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Marshall

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Eastern Michigan]

Virginia

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[North Texas]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Hawaii

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Alabama

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[UAB]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 10, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 10, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 12

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio

Western Mich.

-2.6

-2.6

-2.0

Akron

Eastern Mich.

-14.9

-15.1

-16.4

 

 

Wednesday

November 13

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O)

Bowling Green

17.8

16.7

18.3

Toledo

Northern Illinois

1.1

2.3

1.8

 

 

Thursday

November 14

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Kent St.

Buffalo

-3.2

-4.0

-4.4

Pittsburgh

North Carolina

3.3

3.2

2.9

 

 

Friday

November 15

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

-3.0

-3.9

-2.8

San Diego St.

Fresno St.

4.7

5.3

3.9

 

 

Saturday

November 16

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rutgers

Ohio St.

-53.2

-52.7

-55.8

Auburn

Georgia

-1.2

-1.2

-1.7

Utah

UCLA

24.9

24.0

26.0

Nebraska

Wisconsin

-14.0

-13.1

-14.7

Michigan

Michigan St.

14.5

14.1

15.5

Iowa

Minnesota

2.9

1.1

2.9

Oklahoma St.

Kansas

17.6

17.1

17.3

California

USC

-0.6

-1.3

-0.5

Washington St.

Stanford

10.3

10.2

11.1

Oregon St.

Arizona St.

-3.9

-2.1

-4.5

Northwestern

Massachusetts

48.4

45.6

48.4

Mississippi St.

Alabama

-20.2

-20.3

-16.8

Penn St.

Indiana

15.8

15.7

16.1

Missouri

Florida

-11.4

-11.2

-11.7

Texas Tech

TCU

1.3

-1.0

0.3

Temple

Tulane

1.7

0.3

2.0

UAB

UTEP

22.0

19.9

21.8

Notre Dame

Navy

23.0

19.0

21.8

Arkansas St.

Coastal Carolina

7.2

6.2

7.4

Georgia Southern

UL-Monroe

14.1

13.4

14.0

Texas St.

Troy

-7.2

-7.3

-7.0

Clemson

Wake Forest

34.5

33.0

35.4

Kansas St.

West Virginia

15.1

15.4

15.9

Houston

Memphis

-5.9

-5.1

-4.6

Ball St.

Central Mich.

4.8

3.7

4.1

Iowa St.

Texas

8.3

8.5

8.8

Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech

-6.3

-7.8

-6.6

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

-12.3

-12.4

-12.4

Duke

Syracuse

7.7

7.8

8.1

UNLV

Hawaii

-7.5

-7.2

-6.8

Utah St.

Wyoming

2.8

-0.1

2.8

Middle Tennessee

Rice

12.8

11.1

13.6

South Alabama

Louisiana

-24.3

-22.1

-25.2

UTSA

Southern Miss.

-18.5

-15.2

-19.0

Ole Miss

LSU

-21.7

-20.1

-21.7

South Florida

Cincinnati

-13.2

-11.8

-13.4

Colorado St.

Air Force

-15.1

-12.8

-15.3

Baylor

Oklahoma

-6.3

-5.4

-6.4

Texas A&M

South Carolina

8.9

9.0

8.6

North Carolina St.

Louisville

0.5

0.1

0.4

Georgia St.

Appalachian St.

-11.6

-9.3

-11.3

Boise St.

New Mexico

28.6

26.2

29.9

Oregon

Arizona

27.5

27.9

29.2

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Florida St.

Alabama St.

39

Army

VMI

31

BYU

Idaho St.

31

New Mexico St.

Incarnate Word

10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.6

139.8

141.9

140.8

2

Clemson

135.9

133.8

137.0

135.6

3

Alabama

134.3

131.1

134.8

133.4

4

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

5

Georgia

127.1

125.3

127.3

126.6

6

Florida

125.3

122.6

124.9

124.2

7

Utah

124.0

122.9

124.8

123.9

8

Penn St.

123.6

122.7

123.7

123.4

9

Michigan

123.3

121.9

123.6

122.9

10

Auburn

122.8

121.1

122.6

122.2

11

Oklahoma

122.4

121.6

121.9

122.0

12

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

13

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

14

Minnesota

118.9

118.8

118.8

118.8

15

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

16

Notre Dame

118.3

116.8

118.1

117.7

17

Iowa St.

115.6

116.2

116.0

115.9

18

Texas A&M

116.5

114.9

115.4

115.6

19

Washington

113.8

113.5

114.8

114.0

20

Baylor

113.2

113.2

112.5

113.0

21

Kansas St.

112.2

112.1

112.2

112.2

22

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

112.0

111.4

23

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.8

115.0

111.3

24

Indiana

110.9

109.9

110.6

110.5

25

Oklahoma St.

110.3

111.0

110.0

110.4

26

Texas

110.3

110.6

110.3

110.4

27

Washington St.

110.6

109.7

110.9

110.4

28

Missouri

110.9

108.4

110.2

109.8

29

Michigan St.

110.3

109.4

109.6

109.8

30

South Carolina

110.6

108.9

109.8

109.8

31

Tennessee

109.9

109.7

109.2

109.6

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.3

108.0

109.5

108.6

33

U S C

108.2

108.7

108.7

108.6

34

T C U

107.4

109.9

107.7

108.3

35

Kentucky

108.3

106.9

107.0

107.4

36

Cincinnati

107.3

106.8

107.7

107.3

37

Virginia

107.1

107.0

107.1

107.1

38

Ole Miss

106.8

106.1

106.9

106.6

39

Arizona St.

106.6

105.9

106.9

106.5

40

Memphis

106.2

106.2

107.0

106.5

41

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

42

Texas Tech

106.2

106.4

105.5

106.0

43

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

106.3

106.0

44

North Carolina

105.7

105.5

106.4

105.9

45

Boise St.

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

46

SMU

105.2

104.9

105.9

105.3

47

California

104.6

104.3

105.3

104.7

48

Air Force

104.0

105.3

104.8

104.7

49

Virginia Tech

104.4

104.5

105.1

104.7

50

Florida St.

104.4

104.4

104.6

104.5

51

Wake Forest

104.4

103.8

104.7

104.3

52

Illinois

103.8

104.7

103.6

104.1

53

Purdue

103.7

103.5

103.1

103.4

54

Nebraska

103.4

103.9

102.6

103.3

55

Duke

103.5

102.7

103.2

103.1

56

Stanford

103.3

102.5

102.8

102.9

57

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.6

102.7

58

Boston College

102.1

101.7

102.3

102.0

59

U C L A

102.0

101.9

101.8

101.9

60

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

61

Northwestern

102.1

101.0

100.7

101.3

62

Tulane

100.0

100.8

100.5

100.4

63

Wyoming

99.3

101.4

100.0

100.2

64

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

65

West Virginia

100.1

99.7

99.3

99.7

66

Navy

98.2

100.8

99.2

99.4

67

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

68

Temple

98.6

98.1

99.6

98.8

69

Louisville

98.8

98.5

98.6

98.6

70

Syracuse

98.8

98.0

98.1

98.3

71

Florida Atlantic

97.8

97.8

99.2

98.3

72

Houston

97.3

98.2

99.4

98.3

73

Western Michigan

98.4

97.4

98.1

98.0

74

Louisiana Tech

97.1

97.5

97.6

97.4

75

San Diego St.

96.6

98.2

96.2

97.0

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.3

97.1

96.4

79

Maryland

97.2

96.0

95.6

96.3

80

Kansas

95.8

96.8

95.7

96.1

81

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

82

North Carolina St.

96.2

95.6

96.0

95.9

83

Fresno St.

94.9

95.9

95.3

95.4

84

Hawaii

94.9

96.2

93.8

95.0

85

Army

94.9

95.1

94.4

94.8

86

Georgia Tech

95.1

93.7

95.5

94.8

87

Tulsa

93.3

94.2

94.6

94.0

88

Buffalo

93.1

93.8

94.6

93.8

89

Vanderbilt

94.5

93.0

93.1

93.5

90

Western Kentucky

92.7

93.6

94.3

93.5

91

Ohio

93.3

92.3

93.6

93.1

92

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

93

South Florida

91.1

92.0

91.3

91.5

94

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

95

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

96

Marshall

91.0

90.6

91.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.1

91.2

90.4

90.5

98

Ball St.

90.6

90.2

90.8

90.5

99

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.9

90.7

89.9

100

Middle Tennessee

90.0

89.2

90.1

89.8

101

Northern Illinois

89.7

88.9

89.8

89.5

102

Central Michigan

88.4

89.0

89.3

88.9

103

Colorado St.

87.4

91.0

88.0

88.8

104

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

105

San Jose St.

88.0

89.9

88.2

88.7

106

U A B

87.7

89.5

88.1

88.5

107

Nevada

87.8

89.4

87.3

88.2

108

North Texas

87.8

87.4

88.1

87.8

109

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

110

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

111

Arkansas

87.1

87.0

86.3

86.8

112

Charlotte

85.8

86.2

86.2

86.1

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

114

Florida Int’l.

85.5

85.2

85.2

85.3

115

Eastern Michigan

84.4

84.5

84.7

84.6

116

East Carolina

83.6

85.0

84.0

84.2

117

Rutgers

84.4

84.1

83.2

83.9

118

U N L V

83.4

85.0

83.0

83.8

119

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

120

New Mexico

80.1

82.5

78.8

80.5

121

Rice

79.7

80.6

78.9

79.8

122

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.7

75.6

76.3

123

New Mexico St.

75.7

77.5

75.5

76.2

124

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

125

Bowling Green

74.3

74.1

74.3

74.3

126

Old Dominion

73.7

74.0

73.8

73.8

127

Connecticut

70.9

73.7

69.9

71.5

128

U T E P

68.8

72.7

69.4

70.3

129

Akron

67.1

66.9

65.8

66.6

130

Massachusetts

56.3

57.9

54.8

56.3

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.4

2

BTen

111.2

3

B12

109.4

4

P12

107.3

5

ACC

105.0

6

AAC

97.4

7

MWC

93.9

8

SUN

91.0

9

Ind

89.7

10

MAC

87.1

11

CUSA

86.7

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Alabama

5

Georgia

6

Oregon

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

Navy

5

SMU

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.5

110.8

112.0

111.4

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

107.3

106.8

107.7

107.3

5-0

8-1

Temple

98.6

98.1

99.6

98.8

3-2

6-3

South Florida

91.1

92.0

91.3

91.5

2-3

4-5

East Carolina

83.6

85.0

84.0

84.2

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

70.9

73.7

69.9

71.5

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

106.2

106.2

107.0

106.5

4-1

8-1

SMU

105.2

104.9

105.9

105.3

5-1

9-1

Tulane

100.0

100.8

100.5

100.4

3-2

6-3

Navy

98.2

100.8

99.2

99.4

5-1

7-1

Houston

97.3

98.2

99.4

98.3

1-4

3-6

Tulsa

93.3

94.2

94.6

94.0

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

96.9

97.6

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.9

133.8

137.0

135.6

7-0

10-0

Florida St.

104.4

104.4

104.6

104.5

4-4

5-5

Wake Forest

104.4

103.8

104.7

104.3

3-2

7-2

Boston College

102.1

101.7

102.3

102.0

3-4

5-5

Louisville

98.8

98.5

98.6

98.6

3-3

5-4

Syracuse

98.8

98.0

98.1

98.3

0-5

3-6

North Carolina St.

96.2

95.6

96.0

95.9

1-4

4-5

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.3

108.0

109.5

108.6

4-3

6-4

Virginia

107.1

107.0

107.1

107.1

5-2

7-3

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

106.3

106.0

3-2

6-3

North Carolina

105.7

105.5

106.4

105.9

3-3

4-5

Virginia Tech

104.4

104.5

105.1

104.7

4-2

6-3

Duke

103.5

102.7

103.2

103.1

2-4

4-5

Georgia Tech

95.1

93.7

95.5

94.8

1-5

2-7

ACC Averages

105.1

104.5

105.3

105.0

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.4

121.6

121.9

122.0

5-1

8-1

Iowa St.

115.6

116.2

116.0

115.9

3-3

5-4

Baylor

113.2

113.2

112.5

113.0

6-0

9-0

Kansas St.

112.2

112.1

112.2

112.2

3-3

6-3

Oklahoma St.

110.3

111.0

110.0

110.4

3-3

6-3

Texas

110.3

110.6

110.3

110.4

4-2

6-3

T C U

107.4

109.9

107.7

108.3

2-4

4-5

Texas Tech

106.2

106.4

105.5

106.0

2-4

4-5

West Virginia

100.1

99.7

99.3

99.7

1-5

3-6

Kansas

95.8

96.8

95.7

96.1

1-5

3-6

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.6

139.8

141.9

140.8

6-0

9-0

Penn St.

123.6

122.7

123.7

123.4

5-1

8-1

Michigan

123.3

121.9

123.6

122.9

4-2

7-2

Indiana

110.9

109.9

110.6

110.5

4-2

7-2

Michigan St.

110.3

109.4

109.6

109.8

2-4

4-5

Maryland

97.2

96.0

95.6

96.3

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.4

84.1

83.2

83.9

0-6

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.4

120.0

120.3

120.2

4-2

7-2

Minnesota

118.9

118.8

118.8

118.8

6-0

9-0

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

3-3

6-3

Illinois

103.8

104.7

103.6

104.1

4-3

6-4

Purdue

103.7

103.5

103.1

103.4

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.4

103.9

102.6

103.3

2-4

4-5

Northwestern

102.1

101.0

100.7

101.3

0-7

1-8

Big Ten Averages

111.5

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

97.8

97.8

99.2

98.3

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.7

93.6

94.3

93.5

4-2

6-4

Marshall

91.0

90.6

91.8

91.1

4-1

6-3

Middle Tennessee

90.0

89.2

90.1

89.8

2-3

3-6

Charlotte

85.8

86.2

86.2

86.1

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.5

85.2

85.2

85.3

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.7

74.0

73.8

73.8

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Louisiana Tech

97.1

97.5

97.6

97.4

5-0

8-1

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.3

97.1

96.4

4-1

6-3

U A B

87.7

89.5

88.1

88.5

3-2

6-3

North Texas

87.8

87.4

88.1

87.8

3-3

4-6

Rice

79.7

80.6

78.9

79.8

0-5

0-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.7

75.6

76.3

3-2

4-5

U T E P

68.8

72.7

69.4

70.3

0-6

1-8

CUSA Averages

86.4

87.0

86.8

86.7

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.3

116.8

118.1

117.7

x

7-2

BYU

102.6

102.8

102.6

102.7

x

5-4

Army

94.9

95.1

94.4

94.8

x

4-6

Liberty

90.1

91.2

90.4

90.5

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.7

77.5

75.5

76.2

x

0-9

Massachusetts

56.3

57.9

54.8

56.3

x

1-9

Indep. Averages

89.6

90.2

89.3

89.7

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

93.1

93.8

94.6

93.8

3-2

5-4

Ohio

93.3

92.3

93.6

93.1

3-2

4-5

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.9

90.7

89.9

4-1

5-4

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

2-3

3-6

Bowling Green

74.3

74.1

74.3

74.3

2-3

3-6

Akron

67.1

66.9

65.8

66.6

0-5

0-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.4

97.4

98.1

98.0

4-2

6-4

Ball St.

90.6

90.2

90.8

90.5

3-2

4-5

Northern Illinois

89.7

88.9

89.8

89.5

2-3

3-6

Central Michigan

88.4

89.0

89.3

88.9

4-2

6-4

Toledo

88.4

88.7

89.1

88.7

3-2

6-3

Eastern Michigan

84.4

84.5

84.7

84.6

1-4

4-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.8

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

105.7

105.7

105.7

105.7

5-0

8-1

Air Force

104.0

105.3

104.8

104.7

4-1

7-2

Wyoming

99.3

101.4

100.0

100.2

3-2

6-3

Utah St.

99.2

98.4

99.8

99.1

4-1

5-4

Colorado St.

87.4

91.0

88.0

88.8

3-2

4-5

New Mexico

80.1

82.5

78.8

80.5

0-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

96.6

98.2

96.2

97.0

4-2

7-2

Fresno St.

94.9

95.9

95.3

95.4

2-3

4-5

Hawaii

94.9

96.2

93.8

95.0

3-3

6-4

San Jose St.

88.0

89.9

88.2

88.7

1-5

4-6

Nevada

87.8

89.4

87.3

88.2

3-3

6-4

U N L V

83.4

85.0

83.0

83.8

1-5

2-7

MWC Averages

93.4

94.9

93.4

93.9

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

6-0

8-1

Washington

113.8

113.5

114.8

114.0

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

110.6

109.7

110.9

110.4

1-5

4-5

California

104.6

104.3

105.3

104.7

2-4

5-4

Stanford

103.3

102.5

102.8

102.9

3-4

4-5

Oregon St.

99.8

100.8

99.5

100.0

3-3

4-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

124.0

122.9

124.8

123.9

5-1

8-1

U S C

108.2

108.7

108.7

108.6

5-2

6-4

Arizona St.

106.6

105.9

106.9

106.5

2-4

5-4

U C L A

102.0

101.9

101.8

101.9

4-2

4-5

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-4

4-5

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.1

125.3

127.3

126.6

5-1

8-1

Florida

125.3

122.6

124.9

124.2

6-2

8-2

Missouri

110.9

108.4

110.2

109.8

2-3

5-4

South Carolina

110.6

108.9

109.8

109.8

3-4

4-6

Tennessee

109.9

109.7

109.2

109.6

3-3

5-5

Kentucky

108.3

106.9

107.0

107.4

2-5

4-5

Vanderbilt

94.5

93.0

93.1

93.5

1-5

2-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

134.3

131.1

134.8

133.4

5-1

8-1

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

5-0

9-0

Auburn

122.8

121.1

122.6

122.2

4-2

7-2

Texas A&M

116.5

114.9

115.4

115.6

3-2

6-3

Mississippi St.

111.1

107.8

115.0

111.3

2-4

4-5

Ole Miss

106.8

106.1

106.9

106.6

2-4

4-6

Arkansas

87.1

87.0

86.3

86.8

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

114.1

112.3

113.9

113.4

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

106.6

105.6

106.0

106.1

4-1

8-1

Georgia Southern

96.9

96.7

96.4

96.7

3-2

5-4

Georgia St.

92.5

93.8

92.2

92.8

3-2

6-3

Troy

91.6

92.1

90.5

91.4

2-3

4-5

Coastal Carolina

87.2

88.4

86.8

87.5

1-4

4-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.3

101.6

101.4

101.4

4-1

7-2

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.6

91.2

91.4

3-2

5-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.8

86.4

85.4

85.9

3-2

4-5

Texas St.

81.8

82.3

81.0

81.7

2-3

3-6

South Alabama

74.5

77.0

73.7

75.1

0-5

1-8

SBC Averages

91.0

91.6

90.5

91.0

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Air Force]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Memphis

Georgia Southern

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Wyoming

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Western Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Buffalo

Georgia St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Hawaii

[Toledo]

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Western Kentucky

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Central Florida

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[UAB]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Virginia

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Texas Tech

[San Jose St.]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Baylor

Boise St.

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Marshall

[Eastern Michigan]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Liberty]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Georgia

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Missouri *

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

Kentucky

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Appalachian St.

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

USC

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Auburn

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Alabama

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Charlotte]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Tennessee

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Ball St.

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

[Nevada]

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Arkansas St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

LSU

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oregon

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Clemson

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

* Missouri is on probation and technically not eligible for a bowl, but the Tigers have filed an appeal that has yet to be judged by the NCAA Infractions Committee.  If they do not issue a decision before December, then Missouri can accept a bowl bid even though they have a bowl ban in place.

 

Questions and Answers

 

Every year, we receive numerous questions from you the reader.  When we get enough, we try to answer them in one post.  The number one question we receive from people that know us is: “How do you ask a question on your site?”

So we can reduce Spam and not give a link, this is how you do it.  Go to our sister site that you can see to the side on our Blogroll under “The PiRate Ratings, ” which is the 6th one down the page.  This will take you to our sister website.  Once at this other website, click on the Contact Us link, and you can ask your question after you fill out your information.

Here are the questions we have received since the start of football season.  Some of these have been asked every year for the last five or six seasons.

 

Q1. What does PiRate, Mean, and Bias mean in your ratings?

A1. We have one basic power rating that we compile based on game statistics and strength of schedule.  We have three ways of calculating this data.  The PiRate Rating is our old formula that we have used for many years with little change in calculation.  We can also estimate FCS team power ratings with this formula.  The Mean formula takes all the data and weighs each item identically.  There are seven basic grade scores that are then divided by seven to get this rating.  The Bias formula does apply weighted grades to the parts of the game that we believe are more important than others, thus the grading is biased in favor of four of the seven grading scores.

Q2. What is your home field advantage for football?

A2. The PiRate Ratings use differing home field advantages for every game.  If Miami of Florida is hosting Florida International, the home field advantage is going to be much different than if they were to host Hawaii, Buffalo, or Washington.  Some of the time, a road team might actually receive some advantage over the home team.  Let’s say a 2-7 team with little fan support is hosting a team from an adjacent state in a conference game, when the other team is trying to get bowl eligible, and there are fans of this other team just 45 minutes away from the visiting team’s stadium.  Let’s say that about 75% of the fans at the game will be fans of the visiting team, and the home team will have to use visual signals to snap the ball.  It happens.

Q3. How come you have a 5-2 team rated ahead of a 7-0 team in the same conference, and the 5-2 team lost to the 7-0 team in September?

A3. The PiRate Ratings aren’t about what happened three, four, five, or six weeks ago.  The goal of these ratings is to try to predict the outcomes of this week’s games.  For instance, you might notice that Alabama is still rated ahead of LSU in our ratings.  We believe if the two teams were to play again this week on a neutral field, Alabama would win the game.  It might be a lot easier to see this like baseball.  The Padres might beat the Dodgers on Thursday and Friday, but the Dodgers will still be favored to beat them on Saturday and Sunday.  These ratings are meant to be used to predict the future and not rate the past. 

Q4. Why do you like Ohio State so much and always move them up to number one every year?

A4. These are mechanical power ratings.  We could teach somebody else how to calculate the ratings with maybe 3 to 4 hours of teaching.  There is no real human factor where we can say that Ohio State is our favorite team, so let’s make them number one.  Ohio State is number one because the statistical numbers make them number one.  We like Ohio State no more or less than Illinois or Michigan or Rice or San Jose St.  What we love is to be accurate.  Thus, the real thing we root to be number one is our ratings.

Q5. What does your power rating number mean for each team?

A5. Our ratings are calculated so that the average FBS team is rated 100.00.  If a team has a power rating of 106.8, this means they are 6.8 points better than the average FBS team.  If they have a rating of 87.4, this means they are 12.6 points weaker than the average team.

Q6.  Why do you only issue one spread for FBS vs. FCS games?

A6. The Mean and Bias ratings require more statistical analysis using a lot more data than the regular PiRate Rating.  We cannot calculate these ratings for FCS teams.  The regular PiRate Rating consists of data calculation that takes about 3 minutes per FCS team.  And, the PiRate Rating for FCS teams is only an approximation rating.  We do not use the same adjustment to  the ratings of FBS teams that play FCS teams. 

Q7. I noticed that Nebraska did not play this weekend, yet your rating for Nebraska went up a little.  Why is this?

A7. There are two factors at play here.  Nebraska’s opponents played to date did play this past weekend, and their ratings adjusted, which adjusted Nebraska’s rating.  Also, the week off usually helps teams.  Thus, Nebraska’s three ratings rose by about 0.6 points each.

Q8. How do you calculate your Bowl and Playoff Projections?  It does not look like you use the “if the season ended today” method.

A8. We do not use the “if the season ended today” method.  We estimate each team’s final won-loss record and then try to do the bowl committees’ work by extending invitations to the bowl teams based on the criteria set in advance.  When all of our competitors agreed 100% that Penn State was their choice for the Rose Bowl, we had Minnesota projected there.  Expect a bunch more sites to now place Minnesota in the Rose Bowl in their projections.

For what it’s worth, in this week’s projections, we only had 79 bowl eligible teams, which means just one bowl eligible team would be excluded in our mind.  Because Missouri could easily lose their appeal before December, then team #79 could become #78.  That team this week is Ohio.

Q9. What do you think about the 4-team Playoff?

A9. While we believe that in most years only four teams might be championship quality, we don’t believe that Power 5 conference champions should be left out.  At the minimum, the NCAA Playoffs should be a 6-team tournament with all Power 5 conference champions making the playoffs along with the top remaining team.  We support the 8-team or even 12-team playoff.  In a perfect world, we would support a 12- team playoff with the reduction of bowls to 30.  The opening round from 12 to 8 with the top 4 getting byes would be played on the better seeded teams’ home field.  The Quarterfinal Round would then be held at four existing bowls, one in each region.  For instance, the Pinstripe, Music City, Alamo, and Holiday Bowls could host this round.

Q10. Who is the best team of all time?

A10. We can only offer our choice from teams that we have seen in our lifetime, and then only offer up who we believe was the most dominant team in the year they played.  Our answer is the 1971 Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They beat teams that finished second, third, and fourth by a combined 105-44, including destroying 11-0 Alabama in the Orange Bowl 38-6.  They also beat 8-win Utah State and Iowa State and 7-win Hawaii by a combined 124-9.  This team had 8 All-Americans and 19 players that made the All Big 8 teams.  22 players on this team were taken in an NFL Draft after their senior years, including multiple reserves.

Q11. If computers are so incredible, why can’t any beat the spread more than 60% of the time?

A11. That is probably the best question we receive.  Computers may or may not be able to beat the spread 60% of the time, but when they do, none of us ever discover this, because it is never made available to the public.

At the Prediction Tracker, where the PiRate Ratings have finished number one against the spread and in picking winners multiple times, in a typical year, the top computer program beats the spread about 56% of the time.  The top geniuses in Las Vegas, the ones that are severely restricted in how much they can wager at each book (and frequently hire others to pretend to be innocent bettors with a system to place their bets for them), beat the spread 60-65% of the time.  

Before you say that the computers aren’t up to snuff when compared to the Vegas brains, you must understand something.  These brainy geniuses don’t pick every game on the board.  At the Prediction Tracker, we pick every game against the spread.  Some of the multi-millionaires winning in Vegas cannot pick every game and beat 56%.  On a typical week, the top bettors might pick as few as three games and seldom more than nine.  They tend to go with an odd number of games to avoid a .500 outcome which guarantees a loss.  Picking three games and going 2-1 or picking 9 games and going 6-3 on a semi-consistent basis will cause the books to restrict or prohibit these smarts from wagering.

Q12. Why do you withhold basketball ratings until after New Year’s Day?

A12. This isn’t a football question, but six of you have asked this of us.  Our college basketball ratings are based on weighted four factors statistics and strength of schedule.  Until teams have played about 10 games, the statistics don’t mean enough to be viable.  The variance in these stats is much too wide until every team has had 10 games to reduce it.  For instance, if we issued ratings today, Utah would be 10 points ahead of Kentucky as the best team.  When you win by 94 points over a team rated in the bottom 5, it is like beating Michigan State by 10.  Therefore, the ratings need a lot more games to be played before they are worth anything.  Starting in January is the perfect fit, since we have minimal football games remaining.

 

 

 

October 27, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:25 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

October 31

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Georgia Southern

16.9

16.3

17.3

Baylor

West Virginia

14.9

15.7

15.4

 

 

Friday

November 1

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Connecticut

Navy

-20.7

-19.8

-22.6

 

 

Saturday

November 2

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wake Forest

North Carolina St.

6.2

5.9

6.4

Massachusetts

Liberty

-24.7

-23.9

-26.1

Florida Int’l.

Old Dominion

17.4

16.9

17.3

Coastal Carolina

Troy

-2.6

-2.1

-2.3

Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh

-7.6

-9.1

-7.4

Purdue

Nebraska

3.5

2.6

3.7

Central Florida

Houston

19.9

18.3

18.7

Maryland

Michigan

-17.1

-16.4

-18.7

Indiana

Northwestern

7.1

7.1

8.0

Bowling Green

Akron

5.9

5.7

7.0

Illinois

Rutgers

19.3

20.6

19.8

East Carolina

Cincinnati

-24.6

-21.8

-25.2

Syracuse

Boston College

6.6

6.3

5.7

Eastern Michigan

Buffalo

-0.6

-1.1

-1.5

North Carolina

Virginia

1.8

1.6

2.8

Utah St.

BYU

4.4

3.6

5.2

Notre Dame

Virginia Tech

19.2

17.4

18.5

USC

Oregon

-5.7

-5.2

-6.6

UCLA

Colorado

7.9

7.8

7.6

Kansas

Kansas St.

-12.0

-10.9

-11.7

Louisiana

Texas St.

22.1

21.5

22.6

South Carolina

Vanderbilt

17.4

16.9

18.1

Central Michigan

Northern Illinois

-7.2

-5.5

-6.5

Rice

Marshall

-8.4

-6.7

-10.0

Colorado St.

UNLV

4.3

6.5

5.1

Memphis

SMU

2.0

2.1

1.3

Texas A&M

UTSA

44.8

40.6

43.9

Air Force

Army

13.5

14.9

15.5

Arizona

Oregon St.

4.3

3.1

4.6

Tennessee

UAB

22.4

20.0

20.2

Auburn

Ole Miss

21.3

20.4

21.5

Florida (n)

Georgia

-3.5

-4.5

-3.8

Oklahoma St.

TCU

5.7

3.5

4.7

North Texas

UTEP

24.4

19.5

23.9

Tulane

Tulsa

10.9

10.8

10.1

Arkansas

Mississippi St.

-11.2

-7.3

-15.8

Charlotte

Middle Tennessee

-5.2

-4.0

-5.2

Western Kentucky

Florida Atlantic

-1.5

-0.3

-0.8

UL-Monroe

Arkansas St.

-2.6

-2.1

-2.4

Florida St.

Miami (Fla.)

2.1

2.9

1.5

Nevada

New Mexico

8.7

7.4

8.8

Washington

Utah

-6.3

-5.7

-6.2

San Jose St.

Boise St.

-16.1

-13.8

-16.7

Hawaii

Fresno St.

5.4

6.0

4.3

 

 

FBS vs.

FCS

Clemson

Wofford

48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

2

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

3

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

4

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

5

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

6

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

7

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

8

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

9

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

10

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

11

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

12

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

13

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

14

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

15

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

16

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

17

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

18

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

19

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

20

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

21

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

22

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

23

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

24

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

25

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

26

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

27

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

28

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

29

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

30

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

31

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

32

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

33

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

34

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

35

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

36

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

37

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

38

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

39

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

40

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

41

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

42

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

43

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

44

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

45

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

46

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

47

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

48

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

49

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

50

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

51

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

52

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

53

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

54

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

55

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

56

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

57

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

58

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

59

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

60

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

61

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

62

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

63

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

64

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

65

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

66

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

67

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

68

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

69

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

70

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

71

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

72

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

73

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

74

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

75

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

76

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

77

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

78

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

79

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

80

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

81

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

82

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

83

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

84

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

85

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

86

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

87

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

88

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

89

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

90

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

91

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

92

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

93

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

94

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

95

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

96

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

97

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

98

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

99

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

100

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

101

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

102

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

103

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

104

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

105

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

106

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

107

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

108

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

109

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

110

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

111

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

112

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

113

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

114

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

115

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

116

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

118

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

119

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

120

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

121

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

122

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

123

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

124

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

125

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

126

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

127

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

128

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

129

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

130

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

113.7

113.0

114.5

113.7

3-1

6-2

Cincinnati

108.6

107.4

109.2

108.4

3-0

6-1

Temple

98.0

97.2

98.8

98.0

2-2

5-3

South Florida

91.1

92.3

91.5

91.6

2-2

4-4

East Carolina

81.0

82.6

81.0

81.5

0-4

3-5

Connecticut

73.2

76.6

72.3

74.0

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

SMU

106.7

106.5

107.9

107.0

4-0

8-0

Memphis

105.7

105.6

106.2

105.8

3-1

7-1

Tulane

99.7

100.5

100.1

100.1

2-2

5-3

Houston

96.8

97.7

98.8

97.7

1-3

3-5

Navy

95.9

98.4

96.8

97.1

4-1

6-1

Tulsa

91.8

92.7

93.0

92.5

0-4

2-6

AAC Averages

96.8

97.5

97.5

97.3

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

135.0

132.7

136.0

134.6

6-0

8-0

Florida St.

105.6

105.7

105.8

105.7

3-3

4-4

Wake Forest

103.8

103.2

104.1

103.7

2-1

6-1

Syracuse

103.4

102.7

102.8

103.0

0-4

3-5

Boston College

99.8

99.4

100.1

99.8

2-3

4-4

North Carolina St.

99.6

99.3

99.7

99.5

1-2

4-3

Louisville

99.3

99.1

99.2

99.2

3-2

5-3

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Virginia

107.2

107.2

107.1

107.2

3-2

5-3

North Carolina

105.9

105.8

106.9

106.2

3-2

4-4

Miami (Fla.)

105.5

104.9

106.4

105.6

2-3

4-4

Pittsburgh

105.6

105.3

105.7

105.5

2-2

5-3

Duke

105.4

104.8

105.3

105.2

2-3

4-4

Virginia Tech

101.3

101.4

101.7

101.5

3-2

5-2

Georgia Tech

94.9

93.2

95.3

94.5

1-3

2-5

ACC Averages

105.2

104.6

105.4

105.1

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.2

122.4

122.9

122.8

4-1

7-1

Iowa St.

114.5

115.1

114.7

114.8

3-2

5-3

Baylor

114.3

114.5

113.9

114.2

4-0

7-0

Kansas St.

110.4

110.3

110.2

110.3

2-2

5-2

Oklahoma St.

110.0

110.5

109.5

110.0

2-3

5-3

Texas

109.6

109.9

109.6

109.7

3-2

5-3

T C U

107.3

110.0

107.8

108.4

2-2

4-3

Texas Tech

104.1

104.3

103.2

103.9

1-4

3-5

West Virginia

102.4

101.8

101.5

101.9

1-3

3-4

Kansas

96.9

97.9

97.0

97.3

1-4

3-5

Big 12 Averages

109.3

109.7

109.0

109.3

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

138.7

137.8

139.8

138.8

5-0

8-0

Penn St.

124.6

123.8

124.9

124.5

5-0

8-0

Michigan

121.5

119.9

121.8

121.1

3-2

6-2

Michigan St.

112.4

111.5

111.9

111.9

2-3

4-4

Indiana

108.8

107.7

108.4

108.3

3-2

6-2

Maryland

101.4

100.5

100.0

100.6

1-4

3-5

Rutgers

84.9

84.6

83.9

84.5

0-5

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.1

119.7

120.0

119.9

3-2

6-2

Iowa

118.8

117.0

118.7

118.1

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

117.8

117.6

117.5

117.6

5-0

8-0

Northwestern

104.6

103.6

103.4

103.9

0-5

1-6

Purdue

103.6

103.3

102.9

103.3

1-4

2-6

Nebraska

103.1

103.7

102.3

103.0

2-3

4-4

Illinois

101.2

102.1

100.6

101.3

2-3

4-4

Big Ten Averages

111.5

110.9

111.1

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

94.5

94.2

95.5

94.7

3-1

5-3

Middle Tennessee

91.9

91.1

92.2

91.7

2-2

3-5

Western Kentucky

90.5

91.5

92.2

91.4

4-1

5-3

Marshall

90.6

90.0

91.4

90.7

3-1

5-3

Florida Int’l.

88.3

88.1

88.3

88.2

2-3

4-4

Charlotte

84.3

84.6

84.5

84.5

1-3

3-5

Old Dominion

73.5

73.7

73.4

73.5

0-4

1-7

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.4

93.1

94.6

94.0

3-1

5-3

Louisiana Tech

93.8

94.2

94.1

94.0

4-0

7-1

U A B

90.1

92.0

91.0

91.1

3-1

6-1

North Texas

90.5

89.8

90.8

90.4

2-2

3-5

Rice

79.7

80.8

78.9

79.8

0-4

0-8

Texas-San Antonio

74.7

77.0

74.5

75.4

2-2

3-4

U T E P

68.6

72.9

69.4

70.3

0-4

1-6

CUSA Averages

86.1

86.7

86.5

86.4

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

117.6

115.8

117.3

116.9

x

5-2

BYU

99.6

99.6

99.6

99.6

x

3-4

Army

93.8

93.8

92.8

93.5

x

3-5

Liberty

87.9

89.0

88.0

88.3

x

5-3

New Mexico St.

76.2

78.3

76.2

76.9

x

0-8

Massachusetts

60.7

62.6

59.4

60.9

x

1-7

Indep. Averages

89.3

89.8

88.9

89.3

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

94.2

93.3

94.7

94.1

3-1

4-4

Buffalo

90.5

91.1

91.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Miami (Ohio)

89.3

88.0

89.7

89.0

3-1

4-4

Kent St.

87.4

87.2

87.7

87.4

2-2

3-5

Bowling Green

72.7

72.4

72.6

72.6

1-3

2-6

Akron

69.4

69.3

68.2

68.9

0-4

0-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.6

97.7

98.5

98.3

3-2

5-4

Northern Illinois

94.3

93.4

94.5

94.1

2-2

3-5

Ball St.

90.2

89.7

90.2

90.0

3-1

4-4

Toledo

88.2

88.5

88.9

88.5

2-2

5-3

Eastern Michigan

87.3

87.5

87.8

87.6

1-3

4-4

Central Michigan

84.7

85.4

85.5

85.2

3-2

5-4

MAC Averages

87.2

87.0

87.5

87.2

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.4

106.1

106.7

106.4

3-0

6-1

Air Force

104.3

105.7

105.4

105.1

4-1

6-2

Utah St.

102.5

101.7

103.3

102.5

3-1

4-3

Wyoming

98.7

100.9

99.3

99.6

3-1

6-2

Colorado St.

85.9

89.6

86.4

87.3

2-2

3-5

New Mexico

79.9

82.5

78.8

80.4

0-4

2-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.6

99.3

97.4

98.1

4-1

7-1

Hawaii

95.8

97.3

95.0

96.0

2-2

5-3

Fresno St.

94.9

95.8

95.2

95.3

1-2

3-4

San Jose St.

87.3

89.3

87.1

87.9

1-3

4-4

Nevada

86.1

87.4

85.2

86.2

1-3

4-4

U N L V

84.6

86.1

84.3

85.0

1-4

2-6

MWC Averages

93.7

95.1

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

118.4

118.4

119.6

118.8

5-0

7-1

Washington

114.3

114.0

115.3

114.5

2-3

5-3

Washington St.

112.7

111.9

113.2

112.6

1-4

4-4

Stanford

103.7

103.0

103.4

103.4

3-3

4-4

California

102.5

102.1

103.0

102.5

1-4

4-4

Oregon St.

97.6

98.6

97.1

97.8

2-2

3-4

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

123.7

122.6

124.5

123.6

4-1

7-1

U S C

109.6

110.2

110.0

110.0

4-1

5-3

Arizona St.

106.9

106.2

107.4

106.9

2-3

5-3

U C L A

101.0

100.8

100.6

100.8

3-2

3-5

Arizona

98.9

98.7

98.6

98.7

2-3

4-4

Colorado

96.2

96.0

96.0

96.0

1-4

3-5

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.9

107.4

107.1

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

126.5

124.6

126.4

125.8

3-1

6-1

Florida

123.0

120.1

122.6

121.9

5-1

7-1

South Carolina

111.7

110.0

111.1

110.9

2-4

3-5

Missouri

111.3

108.9

110.8

110.3

2-2

5-3

Tennessee

109.5

109.1

108.3

109.0

2-3

3-5

Kentucky

108.4

107.0

107.3

107.6

2-4

4-4

Vanderbilt

97.3

96.0

96.0

96.4

1-3

2-5

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.3

132.2

136.0

134.5

5-0

8-0

L S U

129.1

126.8

129.0

128.3

4-0

8-0

Auburn

123.7

122.0

123.7

123.1

3-2

6-2

Texas A&M

117.4

115.6

116.4

116.5

3-2

5-3

Mississippi St.

109.1

105.5

113.1

109.2

1-4

3-5

Ole Miss

105.5

104.5

105.2

105.1

2-3

3-5

Arkansas

94.9

95.2

94.2

94.8

0-5

2-6

SEC Averages

114.5

112.7

114.3

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

108.7

107.8

108.4

108.3

4-0

7-0

Georgia Southern

94.8

94.5

94.0

94.5

2-1

4-3

Georgia St.

92.3

93.6

92.0

92.6

3-1

6-2

Troy

92.1

92.7

91.2

92.0

1-2

3-4

Coastal Carolina

87.0

88.1

86.4

87.2

0-3

3-4

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

101.1

101.2

101.0

101.1

2-1

5-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.3

90.8

91.1

2-2

4-4

Louisiana-Monroe

86.0

86.7

85.8

86.2

2-1

3-4

Texas St.

82.0

82.7

81.4

82.0

1-2

2-5

South Alabama

74.3

76.8

73.5

74.9

0-4

1-7

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.5

91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.8

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.3

4

Pac-12

107.1

5

Atlantic Coast

105.1

6

American

97.3

7

Mountain West

94.2

8

Sun Belt

91.0

9

Independents

89.3

10

Mid-American

87.2

11

Conference USA

86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

SMU

2

Appalachian St.

3

Cincinnati

4

Navy

5

Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Western Michigan

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Miami (O)]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Eastern Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Central Michigan

Louisiana

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Washington St.

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Southern Miss.

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Central Florida

Florida Atlantic

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Navy

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Western Kentucky]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Illiois

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

Stanford

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia Tech

Oklahoma St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Cincinnati

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

UAB

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Air Force]

Louisville

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Georgia

Penn St.

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Buffalo]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Virginia

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Iowa St.

[Duke]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Georgia Southern

San Jose St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Notre Dame

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Indiana

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Minnesota

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Florida

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[Miami (Fla.)]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Wisconsin

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Hawaii

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio U

Georgia St.

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

LSU

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

 

 

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Ohio St.

Alabama

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

September 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For September 19-23, 2019

Well, hello there.  Welcome to the worst sports picks on the Internet in 2019.  These last two weeks have been so monumentally terrible, that one must go back to 1982 to find a worse two weeks for our selections.  Why have we gone from so good in 2018 to so rotten this year?  If we only knew the answer to that question.

One thing we noticed is that our parlays have been 67% correct, or in other words, we are hitting on all but one game in each parlay.  Or, in other words, if we had re-arranged our picks, we could have in theory won well over half of these selections.  There’s the rub.  When you pick parlays, you have to be 100% right to win your parlay.

We have decided to stick with what has worked for us in the past and hope to improve enough to get back into the black before the end of the year.  It’s going to be a tough hill to climb, but we issue our selections without any stress.

Why is this stress free?  We NEVER wager real money on our selections.  We are in this for fun, and we have always advised you to do the same.  Even in years where our picks would have in theory returned you more than 40% on your investment, we never took ourselves seriously enough to have faith in these choices.

You have had your weekly forewarning.  DO NOT WAGER REAL MONEY ON THESE PICKS!

Odds as of 2:00 PM EDT on Wednesday, September 18

 

Selection #1: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Houston + 15 1/2 vs. Tulane

Boston College +3 vs. Rutgers

Louisiana-Monroe +29 vs. Iowa St.

 

Selection #2: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Northwestern +19 1/2 vs. Michigan St.

TCU + 1/2 vs. SMU

Wyoming +13 1/2 vs. Tulsa

 

Selection #3: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

New Mexico St. +15 vs. New Mexico

Oklahoma St. +15 1/2 vs. Texas

Nevada -4 1/2 vs. UTEP

 

Selection #4: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Jacksonville + 11 1/2 vs. Tennessee

Green Bay +2 vs. Denver

Cincinnati +16 vs. Buffalo

 

Selection #5: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Carolina +7 1/2 vs. Arizona

Seattle +6 vs. New Orleans

San Francisco +3 1/2 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Selection #6: 10-point Teaser, 3 teams at 10-12

 

Tennessee & Jacksonville OVER 29

New England & NY Jets OVER 33 1/2

Dallas & Miami UNDER 57 1/2

 

Selection #7: Money Line Parlay, 2 teams at +152

 

Syracuse over Western Michigan

North Carolina over Appalachian St.

 

Selection #8: Money Line Parlay, 3 teams at +137

 

Louisiana Tech over Florida Int’l.

TCU over SMU

Arizona St. over Colorado

 

Selection #9: Money Line Parlay, 3 teams at +180

 

Boston College over Rutgers

Texas A&M over Auburn

UAB over South Alabama

 

Davey19

The experimental Davey19 model took it on the chin as well last week, and it went into the red for the season.  This week, we double-checked the information to make sure we interpreted the statistical data correctly, and it looks like we made no mistakes in the calculations last week.  The picks just plain stunk.

 

Here are Davey19’s selections as we play it a little more conservatively.

 

  1. Stanford & Oregon UNDER 58 1/2

  2. Air Force & Boise St. UNDER 55

  3. Northwestern +9 1/2 vs. Michigan St.

  4. Illinois +13 1/2 vs. Nebraska

  5. Ole Miss -2 vs. California

August 15, 2019

2019 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

There was a time when the Pac-12 Conference, or one of its predecessor leagues like the Pac-10, Pac-8, Athletic Association of Western Universities, or Pacific Coast Conference was the premier football conference in America.  Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, California, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State have all been elite programs at some point in history.

In recent years, the league has failed to produce a dominant team like the 1954 UCLA Bruins, the 1972 USC Trojans or the 1991 Washington Huskies.  Oregon and Washington have fielded really good teams in this decade, but no Pac-12 team has finished number one since USC won in 2004 with Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Matt Leinart starred at the LA Coliseum.

While the Pac-12 champion has been a touchdown to 10 points weaker than the SEC Champion in the last decade, the bottom teams in the league have been better than other conferences’ bottom teams.  Since moving from eight to nine conference games in 2006, in 10 of the 12 years, at least one team and in many cases two teams have come up one win short of bowl eligibility.  Only Oregon in 2010 has been able to go 9-0 in the league and win the Pac-12 Championship Game as well.

Will this be the year that one team emerges from the pack to earn the league’s first playoff spot since Washington in 2016?  The odds say it won’t happen this year.  The league is too balanced, and there are no dominant teams.  It also doesn’t help that the two leading contenders for the conference championship must face off in an interdivisional game, and chances are high the two teams could split those games.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Pac-12 Media Poll
 

 

North Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Oregon 17 190
2 Washington 17 189
3 Stanford 0 129
4 Washington St. 1 108
5 California 0 81
6 Oregon St. 0 38
 

 

South Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Utah 33 206
2 USC 2 167
3T Arizona St. 0 118
3T UCLA 0 118
5 Arizona 0 85
6 Colorado 0 46
 

 

Championship Game Winner Overall Votes
Utah 12
Oregon 11
Washington 9
USC 2
Washington St. 1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Pac-12
 

 

North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 113.6 113.5 114.9 114.0
Washington 112.5 111.9 113.6 112.7
Washington St. 111.8 110.7 112.0 111.5
Stanford 108.5 107.5 108.6 108.2
California 106.8 107.0 108.1 107.3
Oregon St. 95.1 96.2 93.9 95.1
 

 

South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Utah 116.4 114.7 116.6 115.9
Arizona St. 107.7 106.6 108.3 107.6
U C L A 107.6 106.9 106.8 107.1
U S C 104.0 105.2 104.4 104.6
Arizona 101.7 102.0 102.2 102.0
Colorado 99.8 99.0 99.9 99.5
 

 

Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.4 107.1

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
 

North Division

Pos Team Conference Overall
1 Washington 8-1 11-2
2 Oregon 7-2 9-3
3 Stanford 6-3 7-5
4 Washington St. 5-4 8-4
5 California 3-6 5-7
6 Oregon St. 0-9 1-11
 

 

South Division

Pos Team Conference Overall
1 Utah 7-2 11-2*
2 UCLA 5-4 6-6
3 Arizona St. 4-5 6-6
4 USC 4-5 5-7
5 Arizona 3-6 5-7
6 Colorado 1-8 3-9
*  

Utah picked to win Pac-12 Championship Game

 

As you can see, if our predictions are correct, three Pac-12 teams will miss bowl eligibility by one game, most likely because rather than playing an easy Group of 5 or FCS opponent, they will be playing a ninth conference game.

 

Bowl Predictions Team
Playoffs Not This Year
Rose Utah
Cotton Washington
Alamo Oregon
Holiday Washington St.
Redbox Stanford
Sun Arizona St.
Vegas UCLA
Cheez-it (At-large team needed)

 

Coaches That Could Move Up To Major Programs

None, but Stanford’s David Shaw has been rumored for years to be in the mix for a future NFL head coaching position.

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Clay Helton, USC

Helton begins the year with the hottest seat in college football.  He better win the BYU game in Provo, or who knows?  He could be met with his pink slip on the airport tarmac.  The Trojans’ schedule is a nightmare for a coach on the hot seat.  As if playing nine tough conference games isn’t enough, USC’s out-of-conference slate includes Fresno State, BYU, and Notre Dame.  If the Trojans go 2-1 in these games and then go 7-2 in the Pac-12 to win the South Division flag, Helton might keep his job.  Anything less, and Athletics Director Lynn Swann will have to make a move, assuming he still has his job.  Just remember, it only takes Urban Meyer one year to feel healthy enough to coach again.  There are also excellent options in Chris Peterson, Matt Campbell, Dino Babers, and even a current NFL coach.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Oregon

J. T. Daniels, USC

K.J. Costello, Stanford

Khalil Tate, Arizona

Keep eyes on Washington’s Jacob Eason and Washington State’s Gage Gebrud.

 

Top Offense

Oregon

Utah

Washington

 

Top Defense

California

Utah

Oregon

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Big 12 Conference–Oklahoma loses Heisman Trophy quarterback Kyler Murray and replaces him with former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.  Will Hurts make a run at the hardware competing against his former teammate?

Can Texas build upon their progress made last year, or will Iowa State or Baylor emerge as the principle rival to the Sooners this year?

 

March 28, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 28, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Gonzaga

123.1

0.0

Florida St.

115.7

7.4

Tennessee

117.8

0.0

Purdue

117.6

0.2

Michigan

119.1

0.0

Texas Tech

118.4

0.7

Virginia

120.6

0.0

Oregon

111.2

9.4

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team

Team

TIME (EDT)

TV

LOCATION

Florida St.

Gonzaga

7:09 PM

CBS

Anaheim

Purdue

Tennessee

7:29 PM

TBS

Louisville

Texas Tech

Michigan

9:39 PM

CBS

Anaheim

Oregon

Virginia

9:59 PM

TBS

Louisville

 

March 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Tennessee

117.9

0.0

Iowa

111.4

6.5

North Carolina

121.3

0.0

Washington

109.7

11.6

Duke

122.9

0.0

Central Florida

110.0

12.9

Texas Tech

118.0

0.0

Buffalo

115.2

2.8

Virginia Tech

115.5

0.0

Liberty

107.3

8.2

Virginia

120.8

0.0

Oklahoma

111.4

9.4

Houston

115.3

0.0

Ohio St.

110.2

5.1

Oregon

110.8

0.0

UC Irvine

106.6

4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time

Game

Network

Site

12:10 PM

Tennessee vs. Iowa

CBS

Columbus

2:40 PM

North Carolina vs. Washington

CBS

Columbus

5:15 PM

Duke vs. Central Florida

CBS

Columbia

6:10 PM

Texas Tech vs. Buffalo

TNT

Tulsa

7:10 PM

Virginia Tech vs. Liberty

TBS

San Jose

7:45 PM

Virginia vs. Oklahoma

TruTV

Columbia

8:40 PM

Houston vs. Ohio St.

TNT

Tulsa

9:40 PM

Oregon vs. UC-Irvine

TBS

San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Saturday, March 16, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:29 am

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Vermont

105.6

3.0

Maryland Baltimore Co.

96.2

12.4

Memphis

107.1

3.0

Houston

115.4

-5.3

Cincinnati

110.3

0.0

Wichita St.

103.9

6.4

Rhode Island

102.0

0.0

St. Bonaventure

102.3

-0.3

Davidson

106.3

0.0

Saint Louis

102.9

3.4

Duke

123.2

0.5

Florida St.

115.0

8.7

Kansas

114.9

1.5

Iowa St.

114.3

2.1

Seton Hall

108.6

0.5

Villanova

113.1

-4.0

Montana

101.6

0.0

Eastern Washington

96.6

5.0

Wisconsin

115.4

0.5

Michigan St.

120.3

-4.4

Minnesota

110.0

0.0

Michigan

118.7

-8.7

UC-Irvine

105.6

0.0

Cal St. Fullerton

99.0

6.6

Old Dominion

103.4

0.0

Western Kentucky

103.3

0.1

Harvard

102.9

0.0

Penn

102.3

0.6

Yale

106.0

2.5

Princeton

99.3

9.2

Buffalo

115.3

0.0

Bowling Green

104.5

10.8

Norfolk St.

94.3

0.0

North Carolina Central

92.3

2.0

San Diego St.

102.7

0.0

Utah St.

108.6

-5.9

Washington

109.5

0.0

Oregon

109.7

-0.2

Abilene Christian

101.1

0.0

New Orleans

94.6

6.5

Florida

111.4

0.0

Auburn

115.0

-3.6

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Tennessee

118.5

-0.5

UT-Arlington

100.8

0.0

Georgia Southern

95.9

4.9

Georgia St.

103.2

0.0

Texas St.

102.8

0.4

Prairie View A&M

96.5

0.0

Texas Southern

97.1

-0.6

New Mexico St.

108.1

0.0

Grand Canyon

105.1

3.0

 

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

At Vermont

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Vermont (26-6)

3

Maryland-Baltimore Co. (21-12)

 

 

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Houston

84

Connecticut

45

Memphis

79

Central Florida

55

Cincinnati

82

SMU

74

Wichita St.

80

Temple

74

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Houston (30-2)

5

Memphis (21-12)

2

Cincinnati (26-6)

6

Wichita St. (19-13)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Rhode Island

75

VCU

70

St. Bonaventure

68

George Mason

57

Davidson

70

Saint Joseph’s

60

Saint Louis

64

Dayton

55

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Rhode Island (18-14)

4

St. Bonaventure (17-15)

2

Davidson (24-8)

6

Saint Louis (21-12)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Florida St.

69

Virginia

59

Duke

74

North Carolina

73

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Florida St. (27-6)

3

Duke (28-5)

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Iowa St.

63

Kansas St.

59

Kansas

88

West Virginia

74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Iowa St. (22-11)

3

Kansas (25-8)

 

 

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Villanova

71

Xavier

67 ot

Seton Hall

81

Marquette

79

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (24-9)

3

Seton Hall (20-12)

 

 

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Montana

78

Weber St.

49

Eastern Washington

77

Southern Utah

61

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (25-8)

3

Eastern Washington (16-17)

 

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Michigan St.

77

Ohio St.

70

Wisconsin

66

Nebraska

62

Minnesota

75

Purdue

73

Michigan

74

Iowa

53

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Michigan St. (26-6)

4

Wisconsin (23-9)

7

Minnesota (21-12)

3

Michigan (27-5)

 

 

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

UC-Irvine

75

Long Beach St.

67

Cal St. Fulerton

64

UC Santa Barbara

58

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (29-5)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (16-16)

 

 

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Old Dominion

61

UAB

59

Western Kentucky

70

Southern Miss.

59

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (25-8)

2

Western Kentucky (20-13)

 

Ivy League (Ivy Madness)

Site: John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT (Yale)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Harvard (17-10)

4

Penn (19-11)

2

Yale (20-7)

3

Princeton (16-11)

 

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Buffalo

85

Central Michigan

81

Bowling Green

71

Northern Illinois

67

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (30-3)

3

Bowling Green (22-11)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

UNC Central

65

North Carolina A&T

63

Norfolk St.

75

Howard

69

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Norfolk St. (21-12)

3

North Carolina Central (17-15)

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

San Diego St.

65

Nevada

56

Utah St.

85

Fresno St.

60

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

4

San Diego St. (21-11)

2

Utah St. (27-6)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Washington

66

Colorado

61

Oregon

79

Arizona St.

75 ot

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (26-7)

6

Oregon (22-12)

 

 

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

New Orleans

79

Sam Houston St.

76

Abilene Christian

69

Southeastern Louisiana

66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

New Orleans (19-12)

2

Abilene Christian (26-6)

 

 

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Florida

76

LSU

73

Auburn

73

South Carolina

64

Kentucky

73

Alabama

55

Tennessee

83

Mississippi St.

76

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Florida (19-14)

5

Auburn (24-9)

2

Kentucky (27-5)

3

Tennessee (28-4)

 

 

Sun Belt Conference

Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Georgia Southern

81

Louisiana Monroe

67

Texas St.

79

South Alabama

67

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

UT Arlington (16-15)

3

Georgia Southern (21-11)

1

Georgia St. (22-9)

4

Texas St. (24-8)

 

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Site: at Higher Seeds

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Prairie View A&M

81

Grambling

71

Texas Southern

80

Alabama St.

66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Prairie View A&M (22-12)

2

Texas Southern (21-12)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

New Mexico St.

79

UT RGV

72

Grand Canyon

78

New Mexico St.

74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (29-4)

3

Grand Canyon (20-12)

 

 

Automatic Bids To Date

Team

Conf

W-L

Liberty

Atlantic Sun

28-6

Gardner-Webb

Big South

23-11

Murray St.

Ohio Valley

27-4

Bradley

Missouri Valley

20-14

Wofford

Southern

29-4

Iona

Metro Atlantic

17-15

Fairleigh-Dickinson

Northeast

20-13

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

26-8

Northeastern

Colonial

23-10

Saint Mary’s

West Coast

22-11

North Dakota St.

Summit

18-15

Colgate

Patriot

24-10

 

The PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Convene

The PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus have gathered (if only electronically) is our bunkers, otherwise known as our man caves and woman caves watching multiple games simultaneously to get better familiar with all the teams still trying to Dance.

Tonight, we will begin putting our opinions together to formulate our final Bracketology selections for Sunday afternoon.  We will publish our initial predicted 68 around 2 PM EDT on Sunday and then a final prediction at the conclusion of the last meaningful conference tournament championship game, if one might affect the seedings.

At the moment, there are games that could wildly swing the bottom of the seed line, affecting who plays in the First Four, and there are a couple of potenial bid-stealers still alive.

Here is our planned schedule for the weekend

Saturday late morning: Bracketology number 1 (Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday morning: Bracketology number 2 (Again, Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday early afternoon: Bracket Gurus Initial Field of 68 Predictions

Sunday late afternoon: Bracket Gurus Final Field of 68 Predictions (if necessary)

Note: The Captain and the Gurus are making their selections trying to predict what the Selection Committee will do and not by using their own opinions of which 68 teams should be in the field.  One of out methods will include trying to predict political biases of the Committee members.  By political, we don’t mean Liberal vs. Conservative.  We mean Power Conference vs. Mid-Major and Low-Major, or in other words, why State U at 18-16 will beat out Tiny Tech at 29-5 that lost in their conference championship game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 15, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, March 15, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:37 am

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Houston

114.9

0.0

Connecticut

105.1

9.8

Memphis

106.7

3.0

Central Florida

110.3

-0.6

Cincinnati

110.3

0.0

SMU

103.1

7.2

Temple

106.8

0.0

Wichita St.

104.7

2.1

Virginia Commonwealth

111.3

0.0

Rhode Island

103.0

8.3

St. Bonaventure

102.6

0.0

George Mason

100.7

1.9

Davidson

106.3

0.0

Saint Joseph’s

99.2

7.1

Dayton

107.9

0.0

Saint Louis

102.8

5.1

Virginia

122.1

0.0

Florida St.

113.4

8.7

North Carolina

121.8

0.0

Duke

123.5

-1.7

Kansas St.

112.9

1.0

Iowa St.

113.6

0.3

Kansas

114.9

2.0

West Virginia

105.7

11.2

Villanova

112

0.0

Xavier

106.0

6.0

Seton Hall

108.6

1.0

Marquette

113.0

-3.4

Montana

101.6

0.0

Weber St.

97.4

4.2

Southern Utah

93.4

0.0

Eastern Washington

95.2

-1.8

Michigan St.

120.9

0.0

Ohio St.

110.5

10.4

Wisconsin

115.4

1.0

Nebraska

111.7

4.7

Purdue

117.5

0.0

Minnesota

109.2

8.3

Michigan

118.3

0.0

Iowa

111.6

6.7

UC-Irvine

105.6

0.0

Long Beach St.

97.1

8.5

UC Santa Barbara

99.8

0.0

Cal St. Fullerton

98.3

1.5

Old Dominion

103.4

0.0

UAB

100.3

3.1

Western Kentucky

103.4

0.0

Southern Miss.

104.0

-0.6

Buffalo

115.3

0.0

Central Michigan

103.2

12.1

Northern Illinois

102.6

0.0

Bowling Green

104.1

-1.5

North Carolina A&T

92.5

0.0

North Carolina Central

92.6

-0.1

Norfolk St.

94.3

0.0

Howard

91.1

3.2

Nevada

113.9

1.0

San Diego St.

103.3

11.6

Utah St.

110.6

0.0

Fresno St.

108.5

2.1

Washington

109.5

0.0

Colorado

107.0

2.5

Arizona St.

107.9

0.0

Oregon

109.7

-1.8

Sam Houston St.

99.7

0.0

New Orleans

94.7

5.0

Abilene Christian

101.1

0.0

Southeastern Louisiana

95.7

5.4

LSU

114.8

0.0

Florida

112.9

1.9

South Carolina

106.9

0.0

Auburn

115.3

-8.4

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Alabama

108.2

9.8

Tennessee

119.0

1.0

Mississippi St.

114.0

6.0

Georgia Southern

104.7

0.0

Louisiana Monroe

102.3

2.4

Texas St.

103.0

0.0

South Alabama

97.4

5.6

Prairie View A&M

96.5

0.0

Grambling

94.1

2.4

Texas Southern

96.6

0.0

Alabama St.

89.0

7.6

New Mexico St.

108.1

0.0

UT Rio Grande Valley

98.7

9.4

Utah Valley

105.1

0.0

Grand Canyon

105.6

-0.5

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

First Round–Thursday, March 14

Connecticut

80

South Florida

73

Memphis

83

Tulane

68

SMU

74

Tulsa

65

Wichita St.

73

East Carolina

57

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Houston (29-2)

9

Connecticut (16-16)

4

Central Florida (23-7)

5/12

Memphis (20-12)

2

Cincinnati (25-6)

10

SMU (15-16)

3

Temple (23-8)

6

Wichita St. (18-13)

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Rhode Island

76

La Salle

57

George Mason

61

George Washington

57

Saint Joseph’s

92

Duquesne

86

Saint Louis

71

Richmond

68

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia Commonwealth (25-6)

8

Rhode Island (17-14)

4

St. Bonaventure (16-15)

5

George Mason (18-14)

2

Davidson (23-8)

10

Saint Joseph’s (14-18)

3

Dayton (21-10)

6

Saint Louis (20-12)

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Virginia

76

North Carolina St.

56

Florida St.

65

Virginia Tech

63 ot

North Carolina

83

Louisville

70

Duke

84

Syracuse

72

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia (29-2)

5

Florida St. (26-6)

2

North Carolina (27-5)

3

Duke (27-5)

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Kansas St.

70

TCU

61

Iowa St.

83

Baylor

66

West Virginia

79

Texas Tech

74

Kansas

65

Texas

57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Kansas St. (25-7)

5

Iowa St. (21-11)

10

West Virginia (14-19)

3

Kansas (24-8)

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Villanova

73

Providence

62

Xavier

63

Creighton

61

Marquette

86

St. John’s

54

Seton Hall

73

Georgetown

57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (23-9)

4

Xavier (17-14)

2

Marquette (24-8)

3

Seton Hall (19-12)

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Montana

79

Sacramento St.

73

Weber St.

81

Portland St.

71

Southern Utah

83

Northern Colorado

63

Eastern Washington

90

Montana St.

84

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (24-8)

4

Weber St. (18-14)

7

Southern Utah (16-15)

3

Eastern Washington (15-17)

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Ohio St.

79

Indiana

75

Nebraska

69

Maryland

61

Minnesota

77

Penn St.

72 ot

Iowa

83

Illinois

62

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Michigan St. (25-6)

8

Ohio St. (19-13)

4

Wisconsin (22-9)

13

Nebraska (18-15)

2

Purdue (23-8)

7

Minnesota (20-12)

3

Michigan (26-5)

6

Iowa (22-10)

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

UC-Irvine

63

Cal St. Riverside

44

Long Beach St.

68

Hawaii

66

Cal St. Fullerton

75

UC Davis

71 ot

UC Santa Barbara

71

Cal St. Northridge

68

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (28-5)

5

Long Beach St. (15-18)

2

UC Santa Barbara (22-9)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (15-16)

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Old Dominion

57

Louisiana Tech

56

UAB

85

UTSA

76

Western Kentucky

67

North Texas

51

Southern Miss.

82

Marshall

73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (24-8)

5

UAB (20-13)

2

Western Kentucky (19-13)

3

Southern Miss. (20-11)

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Buffalo

82

Akron

46

Central Michigan

89

Kent St.

81

Northern Illinois

80

Toledo

76

Bowling Green

99

Ball St.

86

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (29-3)

5

Central Michigan (23-10)

7

Northern Illinois (27-16)

3

Bowling Green (21-11)

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

UNC Central

75

Delaware St.

57

Howard

80

Bethune-Cookman

71

North Carolina A&T

82

Coppin St.

79 ot

Norfolk St.

78

South Carolina St.

73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

North Carolina A&T (19-12)

3

North Carolina Central (16-15)

1

Norfolk St. (20-12)

4

Howard (17-15)

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Nevada

77

Boise St.

69

San Diego St.

63

UNLV

55

Utah St.

91

New Mexico

83

Fresno St.

76

Air Force

50

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1

Nevada (29-3)

4

San Diego St. (20-11)

2

Utah St. (26-6)

3

Fresno St. (22-8)

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Washington

78

USC

75

Colorado

73

Oregon St.

58

Arizona St.

83

UCLA

72

Oregon

66

Utah

54

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (25-7)

5

Colorado (21-11)

2

Arizona St. (22-9)

6

Oregon (21-12)

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

New Orleans

76

Lamar

72

Southeastern Louisiana

79

Central Arkansas

65

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Sam Houston St. (21-10)

4

New Orleans (18-12)

2

Abilene Christian (25-6)

3

Southeastern Louisiana (17-15)

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Florida

66

Arkansas

50

Auburn

81

Missouri

71

Alabama

62

Ole Miss

57

Mississippi St.

80

Texas A&M

54

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

LSU (26-5)

8

Florida (18-14)

4

South Carolina (16-15)

5

Auburn (23-9)

2

Kentucky (26-5)

10

Alabama (18-14)

3

Tennessee (27-4)

6

Mississippi St. (23-9)

Sun Belt Conference

Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Louisiana Monroe

80

Coastal Carolina

50

South Alabama

70

Louisiana

69

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

Georgia Southern (20-11)

7

Louisiana Monroe (18-14)

4

Texas St. (23-8)

8

South Alabama (17-16)

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Site: at Higher Seeds

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 12

Prairie View A&M

86

Alcorn St.

66

Grambling

59

Arkansas Pine Bluff

52

Alabama St.

58

Jackson St.

49

Texas Southern

80

Southern

70

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Prairie View A&M (21-12)

4

Grambling (17-15)

2

Texas Southern (20-12)

6

Alabama St. (12-18)

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

New Mexico St.

86

Chicago St.

49

UT RGV

85

Cal St. Bakersfield

70

Grand Canyon

84

Seattle

75

Utah Valley

70

UM Kansas City

64

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (28-4)

4

UT Rio Grande Valley (19-15)

2

Utah Valley (24-8)

3/6

Grand Canyon (19-12)

 

 

 

 

January 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 5-6, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:24 am

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings For Power Conferences & Top 25

Saturday’s Games
Home Team Visitor Spread
Virginia Tech Boston College 16.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina -9.3
Notre Dame Syracuse -0.4
Georgia Tech Wake Forest 6.5
Virginia Florida St. 9.5
Duke Clemson 16.7
Texas Tech Kansas St. 11.1
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 10.6
TCU Baylor 6.7
Iowa St. Kansas 0.3
Texas West Virginia 5.6
Butler Creighton 1.1
Georgetown St. John’s -1.6
Providence Villanova -3.1
Ohio St. Michigan St. -2.4
Rutgers Maryland -3.8
Arizona Utah 9.1
UCLA California 12.0
Arizona St. Colorado 5.3
Oregon Oregon St. 6.3
Washington Washington St. 11.0
Alabama Kentucky -3.9
Tennessee Georgia 13.2
Texas A&M Arkansas 0.6
Florida South Carolina 12.7
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 1.8
Gonzaga Santa Clara 25.8
New Mexico Nevada -12.0

 

Sunday’s Games
Home Team Visitor Spread
Marquette Xavier 7.5
DePaul Seton Hall -2.7
Northwestern Illinois 7.2
Wichita St. Temple -0.9
Michigan Indiana 6.4
Iowa Nebraska -2.2
Houston Memphis 8.6
Louisville Miami (Fla) 4.7
Penn St. Wisconsin -2.6
USC Stanford 5.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 1 to 353

Rk Team PiRate
1 Duke 123.3
2 Gonzaga 119.3
3 Virginia 118.6
4 Michigan St. 118.3
5 North Carolina 117.9
6 Virginia Tech 116.7
7 Kansas 116.3
8 Nevada 115.9
9 Tennessee 115.6
10 Auburn 115.6
11 Michigan 115.6
12 Texas Tech 115.6
13 Nebraska 114.7
14 Kentucky 114.5
15 North Carolina St. 114.5
16 Iowa St. 113.6
17 Purdue 113.5
18 Wisconsin 113.1
19 Florida St. 113.1
20 Ohio St. 112.9
21 Oklahoma 112.8
22 Mississippi St. 112.7
23 Cincinnati 112.7
24 Florida 112.7
25 Villanova 112.2
26 Indiana 112.2
27 Buffalo 111.9
28 TCU 111.8
29 Creighton 111.5
30 Texas 111.1
31 Houston 111.1
32 Maryland 110.9
33 Marquette 110.8
34 Syracuse 110.7
35 Clemson 110.6
36 St. John’s 110.2
37 Louisville 110.0
38 UCF 109.5
39 LSU 109.5
40 Iowa 109.5
41 Oregon 109.4
42 Saint Mary’s 109.4
43 Wofford 109.1
44 Butler 109.1
45 San Francisco 109.0
46 Seton Hall 108.8
47 Northwestern 108.8
48 Mississippi 108.6
49 Kansas St. 108.5
50 West Virginia 108.5
51 Utah St. 108.5
52 Arizona 108.4
53 Miami FL 108.3
54 Lipscomb 108.2
55 Toledo 108.2
56 Arizona St. 108.1
57 Baylor 108.1
58 Penn St. 108.0
59 Minnesota 107.9
60 Fresno St. 107.9
61 Alabama 107.6
62 Washington 107.6
63 Murray St. 107.4
64 Vanderbilt 107.4
65 Arkansas 107.3
66 Temple 107.1
67 VCU 106.9
68 Notre Dame 106.8
69 Providence 106.6
70 Ball St. 106.5
71 UCLA 106.4
72 Dayton 106.3
73 Xavier 106.3
74 Hofstra 106.2
75 Loyola Chicago 106.2
76 Missouri 106.1
77 New Mexico St. 105.9
78 BYU 105.9
79 South Dakota St. 105.9
80 Liberty 105.9
81 Colorado 105.8
82 Yale 105.7
83 SMU 105.7
84 Belmont 105.7
85 Oregon St. 105.6
86 Pittsburgh 105.6
87 USC 105.6
88 Georgetown 105.6
89 East Tennessee St. 105.5
90 Georgia 105.4
91 UNC Greensboro 105.4
92 Old Dominion 105.3
93 Connecticut 105.3
94 Davidson 105.2
95 Western Kentucky 105.2
96 Georgia Tech 105.1
97 Memphis 105.0
98 Texas A&M 104.9
99 Montana 104.8
100 San Diego 104.7
101 Saint Louis 104.7
102 Oklahoma St. 104.7
103 Rutgers 104.6
104 Rhode Island 104.4
105 Georgia St. 104.3
106 UC Irvine 104.3
107 Harvard 104.2
108 Vermont 104.2
109 San Diego St. 104.1
110 Akron 104.1
111 Illinois 104.1
112 Boston College 104.1
113 Furman 104.0
114 Penn 103.8
115 North Texas 103.8
116 DePaul 103.6
117 Grand Canyon 103.6
118 Texas St. 103.6
119 South Carolina 103.5
120 Northeastern 103.5
121 Northern Kentucky 103.5
122 Wichita St. 103.2
123 Georgia Southern 103.1
124 Louisiana Tech 102.8
125 Tulsa 102.8
126 Austin Peay 102.7
127 Boise St. 102.5
128 Marshall 102.5
129 Jacksonville St. 102.5
130 UCSB 102.4
131 Southern Illinois 102.4
132 Stanford 102.4
133 Utah 102.3
134 Radford 102.3
135 Saint Joseph’s 102.2
136 Utah Valley 102.2
137 Brown 102.0
138 Drake 101.9
139 Loyola Marymount 101.8
140 George Mason 101.7
141 Rider 101.5
142 Bucknell 101.5
143 Kent St. 101.5
144 Gardner Webb 101.5
145 Charleston 101.4
146 UMass 101.3
147 Winthrop 101.1
148 Northern Colorado 101.1
149 Wake Forest 101.1
150 UNLV 100.8
151 Lehigh 100.8
152 Holy Cross 100.7
153 Seattle 100.6
154 Weber St. 100.6
155 Richmond 100.5
156 Northern Illinois 100.5
157 Stony Brook 100.5
158 Louisiana 100.5
159 Louisiana Monroe 100.4
160 Samford 100.3
161 Miami OH 100.3
162 St. Bonaventure 100.1
163 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.1
164 Cal St. Fullerton 100.1
165 South Florida 100.1
166 NJIT 100.1
167 Southern Miss 100.1
168 Coastal Carolina 100.0
169 Wright St. 99.9
170 New Mexico 99.9
171 Ohio 99.6
172 Indiana St. 99.6
173 Central Michigan 99.5
174 Green Bay 99.5
175 Abilene Christian 99.4
176 Colgate 99.4
177 Duquesne 99.4
178 Princeton 99.3
179 Valparaiso 99.3
180 Mercer 99.2
181 Washington St. 99.1
182 UAB 99.1
183 Charleston Southern 99.1
184 Pacific 99.0
185 Illinois St. 99.0
186 Evansville 98.8
187 Bowling Green 98.7
188 Missouri St. 98.6
189 Cal St. Bakersfield 98.4
190 Bradley 98.4
191 Troy 98.4
192 American 98.4
193 IUPUI 98.4
194 The Citadel 98.2
195 Omaha 98.2
196 Hartford 98.1
197 Appalachian St. 98.1
198 Pepperdine 98.0
199 Texas Southern 97.9
200 South Dakota 97.9
201 Fordham 97.9
202 Northern Iowa 97.7
203 California Baptist 97.7
204 Western Michigan 97.7
205 Hawaii 97.6
206 North Dakota St. 97.6
207 Wagner 97.6
208 Eastern Michigan 97.6
209 Santa Clara 97.5
210 Iona 97.5
211 Florida International 97.5
212 Stephen F. Austin 97.5
213 William & Mary 97.4
214 Dartmouth 97.4
215 Boston University 97.2
216 Oakland 97.1
217 South Alabama 97.1
218 Lamar 97.1
219 UTSA 97.0
220 North Florida 97.0
221 Illinois Chicago 97.0
222 California 96.9
223 Canisius 96.9
224 Long Beach St. 96.8
225 St. Francis PA 96.8
226 Columbia 96.7
227 Presbyterian 96.6
228 UNC Wilmington 96.5
229 Florida Atlantic 96.5
230 Hampton 96.4
231 Detroit 96.3
232 Idaho St. 96.3
233 Campbell 96.2
234 High Point 96.1
235 Delaware 96.0
236 UMBC 95.9
237 Fairfield 95.9
238 Marist 95.8
239 Colorado St. 95.7
240 UMass Lowell 95.6
241 Florida Gulf Coast 95.5
242 LIU Brooklyn 95.5
243 Little Rock 95.5
244 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.5
245 La Salle 95.5
246 Quinnipiac 95.4
247 UC Davis 95.4
248 UTEP 95.3
249 Towson 95.3
250 Drexel 95.3
251 Sacramento St. 95.2
252 Cornell 95.2
253 UMKC 95.0
254 Eastern Kentucky 95.0
255 Robert Morris 94.9
256 Arkansas St. 94.9
257 Morehead St. 94.8
258 Army 94.8
259 Albany 94.8
260 Sam Houston St. 94.8
261 UT Arlington 94.8
262 Siena 94.8
263 Niagara 94.8
264 UT Rio Grande Valley 94.7
265 Western Illinois 94.6
266 James Madison 94.4
267 Houston Baptist 94.3
268 East Carolina 94.3
269 Milwaukee 94.3
270 Tulane 94.2
271 George Washington 94.2
272 Air Force 94.2
273 Middle Tennessee 94.1
274 Saint Peter’s 94.1
275 Cleveland St. 94.0
276 Norfolk St. 94.0
277 North Carolina Central 94.0
278 Nicholls St. 93.9
279 Grambling St. 93.9
280 Eastern Washington 93.9
281 Longwood 93.8
282 St. Francis NY 93.8
283 Sacred Heart 93.8
284 Chattanooga 93.7
285 Portland St. 93.7
286 Southeast Missouri St. 93.6
287 Wyoming 93.6
288 North Dakota 93.4
289 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 93.3
290 Central Arkansas 93.2
291 Loyola MD 93.2
292 Jacksonville 93.1
293 Montana St. 93.1
294 Prairie View A&M 93.1
295 Eastern Illinois 93.0
296 Oral Roberts 92.8
297 Central Connecticut 92.7
298 Denver 92.7
299 Monmouth 92.6
300 UC Riverside 92.6
301 Tennessee St. 92.5
302 McNeese St. 92.5
303 Howard 92.3
304 Southern Utah 92.3
305 Lafayette 92.2
306 UT Martin 92.2
307 New Orleans 92.2
308 Portland 92.1
309 Rice 91.9
310 Navy 91.9
311 Southeastern Louisiana 91.8
312 Bethune Cookman 91.7
313 Charlotte 91.4
314 North Carolina A&T 91.4
315 Cal Poly 91.3
316 Youngstown St. 91.2
317 Cal St. Northridge 91.2
318 Idaho 90.9
319 Northern Arizona 90.8
320 Western Carolina 90.7
321 Binghamton 90.6
322 Morgan St. 90.4
323 Manhattan 90.3
324 USC Upstate 90.2
325 Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.1
326 Maine 90.1
327 VMI 90.1
328 Elon 90.1
329 Mount St. Mary’s 90.0
330 SIU Edwardsville 90.0
331 Alabama St. 89.9
332 Bryant 89.7
333 Tennessee Tech 89.6
334 North Alabama 89.4
335 San Jose St. 89.3
336 South Carolina St. 88.9
337 New Hampshire 88.6
338 Southern 88.4
339 Jackson St. 88.1
340 Florida A&M 88.1
341 Kennesaw St. 87.1
342 Stetson 87.1
343 Incarnate Word 86.6
344 Alcorn St. 86.4
345 Northwestern St. 85.6
346 UNC Asheville 85.0
347 Maryland Eastern Shore 84.5
348 Coppin St. 84.5
349 Alabama A&M 84.3
350 Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
351 Savannah St. 83.6
352 Chicago St. 82.0
353 Delaware St. 81.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conferences

American Athletic PiRate Rating
Cincinnati 112.7
Houston 111.1
UCF 109.5
Temple 107.1
SMU 105.7
Connecticut 105.3
Memphis 105.0
Wichita St. 103.2
Tulsa 102.8
South Florida 100.1
East Carolina 94.3
Tulane 94.2
American East PiRate Rating
Vermont 104.2
Stony Brook 100.5
Hartford 98.1
UMBC 95.9
UMass Lowell 95.6
Albany 94.8
Binghamton 90.6
Maine 90.1
New Hampshire 88.6
Atlantic 10 PiRate Rating
VCU 106.9
Dayton 106.3
Davidson 105.2
Saint Louis 104.7
Rhode Island 104.4
Saint Joseph’s 102.2
George Mason 101.7
UMass 101.3
Richmond 100.5
St. Bonaventure 100.1
Duquesne 99.4
Fordham 97.9
La Salle 95.5
George Washington 94.2
Atlantic Coast PiRate Rating
Duke 123.3
Virginia 118.6
North Carolina 117.9
Virginia Tech 116.7
North Carolina St. 114.5
Florida St. 113.1
Syracuse 110.7
Clemson 110.6
Louisville 110.0
Miami FL 108.3
Notre Dame 106.8
Pittsburgh 105.6
Georgia Tech 105.1
Boston College 104.1
Wake Forest 101.1
Atlantic Sun PiRate Rating
Lipscomb 108.2
Liberty 105.9
NJIT 100.1
North Florida 97.0
Florida Gulf Coast 95.5
Jacksonville 93.1
North Alabama 89.4
Kennesaw St. 87.1
Stetson 87.1
Big 12 PiRate Rating
Kansas 116.3
Texas Tech 115.6
Iowa St. 113.6
Oklahoma 112.8
TCU 111.8
Texas 111.1
Kansas St. 108.5
West Virginia 108.5
Baylor 108.1
Oklahoma St. 104.7
Big East PiRate Rating
Villanova 112.2
Creighton 111.5
Marquette 110.8
St. John’s 110.2
Butler 109.1
Seton Hall 108.8
Providence 106.6
Xavier 106.3
Georgetown 105.6
DePaul 103.6
Big Sky PiRate Rating
Montana 104.8
Northern Colorado 101.1
Weber St. 100.6
Idaho St. 96.3
Sacramento St. 95.2
Eastern Washington 93.9
Portland St. 93.7
Montana St. 93.1
Southern Utah 92.3
Idaho 90.9
Northern Arizona 90.8
Big South PiRate Rating
Radford 102.3
Gardner Webb 101.5
Winthrop 101.1
Charleston Southern 99.1
Presbyterian 96.6
Hampton 96.4
Campbell 96.2
High Point 96.1
Longwood 93.8
USC Upstate 90.2
UNC Asheville 85.0
Big Ten PiRate Rating
Michigan St. 118.3
Michigan 115.6
Nebraska 114.7
Purdue 113.5
Wisconsin 113.1
Ohio St. 112.9
Indiana 112.2
Maryland 110.9
Iowa 109.5
Northwestern 108.8
Penn St. 108.0
Minnesota 107.9
Rutgers 104.6
Illinois 104.1
Big West PiRate Rating
UC Irvine 104.3
UCSB 102.4
Cal St. Fullerton 100.1
Hawaii 97.6
Long Beach St. 96.8
UC Davis 95.4
UC Riverside 92.6
Cal Poly 91.3
Cal St. Northridge 91.2
Colonial Athletic PiRate Rating
Hofstra 106.2
Northeastern 103.5
Charleston 101.4
William & Mary 97.4
UNC Wilmington 96.5
Delaware 96.0
Towson 95.3
Drexel 95.3
James Madison 94.4
Elon 90.1
Conference USA PiRate Rating
Old Dominion 105.3
Western Kentucky 105.2
North Texas 103.8
Louisiana Tech 102.8
Marshall 102.5
Southern Miss 100.1
UAB 99.1
Florida International 97.5
UTSA 97.0
Florida Atlantic 96.5
UTEP 95.3
Middle Tennessee 94.1
Rice 91.9
Charlotte 91.4
Horizon PiRate Rating
Northern Kentucky 103.5
Wright St. 99.9
Green Bay 99.5
IUPUI 98.4
Oakland 97.1
Illinois Chicago 97.0
Detroit 96.3
Milwaukee 94.3
Cleveland St. 94.0
Youngstown St. 91.2
Ivy PiRate Rating
Yale 105.7
Harvard 104.2
Penn 103.8
Brown 102.0
Princeton 99.3
Dartmouth 97.4
Columbia 96.7
Cornell 95.2
Metro Atlantic PiRate Rating
Rider 101.5
Iona 97.5
Canisius 96.9
Fairfield 95.9
Marist 95.8
Quinnipiac 95.4
Siena 94.8
Niagara 94.8
Saint Peter’s 94.1
Monmouth 92.6
Manhattan 90.3
Mid-American PiRate Rating
Buffalo 111.9
Toledo 108.2
Ball St. 106.5
Akron 104.1
Kent St. 101.5
Northern Illinois 100.5
Miami OH 100.3
Ohio 99.6
Central Michigan 99.5
Bowling Green 98.7
Western Michigan 97.7
Eastern Michigan 97.6
Mideastern Athletic PiRate Rating
Norfolk St. 94.0
North Carolina Central 94.0
Howard 92.3
Bethune Cookman 91.7
North Carolina A&T 91.4
Morgan St. 90.4
South Carolina St. 88.9
Florida A&M 88.1
Maryland Eastern Shore 84.5
Coppin St. 84.5
Savannah St. 83.6
Delaware St. 81.6
Missouri Valley PiRate Rating
Loyola Chicago 106.2
Southern Illinois 102.4
Drake 101.9
Indiana St. 99.6
Valparaiso