PiRate Ratings Final Four Preview

PiRate Red-White-Blue Ratings

Saturday, April 1
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Gonzaga	South Carolina	9	9	5
North Carolina	Oregon	3	3	2

Tipoff Times

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
Saturday, April 1
6:09 PM	CBS	Gonzaga	vs.	South Carolina
8:49 PM	CBS	North Carolina	vs.	Oregon

The Official Statistics 

Team Offense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
Gonzaga	37	1100	2162	269	711	611	851	356	1141	1497	422	260	3080
Team Defense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
Gonzaga	37	824	2260	212	723	394	598	401	828	1229	463	195	2254
Team Offense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
South Carolina	36	898	2132	241	715	595	853	451	857	1308	475	281	2632
Team Defense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
South Carolina	36	760	1909	199	668	618	855	391	873	1264	620	219	2337
Team Offense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
North Carolina	38	1175	2492	271	750	608	863	598	1062	1660	458	269	3229
Team Defense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
North Carolina	38	940	2260	304	894	499	692	343	822	1165	514	242	2683
Team Offense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
Oregon	38	1069	2212	327	854	535	759	400	985	1385	438	248	3000
Team Defense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
Oregon	38	907	2243	265	852	409	568	399	824	1223	504	179	2488

The Four Factors

Team	EFG	DEFG	OR%	DOR%	TO%	DTO%	FT*	DFT*
Gonzaga	57.1	41.2	30.1	26.0	14.1	15.4	23.2	15.1
South Carolina	47.8	45.0	34.1	31.3	15.8	21.1	23.2	24.3
North Carolina	52.6	48.3	42.1	24.4	13.6	16.6	22.0	18.1
Oregon	55.7	46.3	32.7	28.8	14.5	16.7	20.5	15.6

FT* & DFT* use FT/100 Possessions as its metric formula

 

PiRate Ratings Criteria

Team	PPG	Def	Mar.	FG-Marg	Reb-Marg	TO-Marg	R+T*	WLRd	SOS	OPoss	DPoss	Poss/G
Gonzaga	83.2	60.9	22.3	14.4	7.2	1.1	19.8	21-0	54.36	2632	2606	70.8
South Carolina	73.1	64.9	8.2	2.3	1.2	4.0	10.3	11-7	56.96	2561	2544	70.9
North Carolina	85.0	70.6	14.4	5.6	13.0	1.5	30.7	15-7	59.00	2762	2760	72.7
Oregon	78.9	65.5	13.5	7.9	4.3	1.7	14.8	16-5	56.83	2611	2618	68.8

R+T*: For those of you new to the PiRate Ratings, the R+T rating is our own invention.  It is an attempt to estimate the potential number of points above or below average that a team is capable of scoring due to superior rebounding, forcing and avoiding turnover, and especially getting and avoiding steals, the most punishing of turnovers, as it almost always leads to points and/or fouls.  The number represents the potential points scored against an average team just from the hustle stats.  Thus, at 19.8, Gonzaga could be expected to score 20 points per game against an average team just from their rebounding margin and turnover margin, with an emphasis on steals margin.  The 20 points is figured based on extra scoring opportunities and includes the possibility that fast break shots might be missed and the team might turn the ball over with this added opportunity.

Anything over 15.0 is outstanding, while anything over 25.0 is super and a major contributor to winning a lot of games.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Comparisons

Gonzaga vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Reason–Since 1985 with the 64 or 68-team tournament, there have been 64 teams in the 32 National Championship Games.  60 of the 64 came from Power Conferences

 

Advantage–South Carolina, as the WCC is not a power conference, while the SEC is

 

Strength of Schedule: Reason–All National Champions since SOS records have been kept had SOS’s of 4 points better than average.  

Advantage–Slight to South Carolina.  Both teams qualify here, but USC’s SOS is about 2 1/2 points stronger per game on average.

R+T Rating: Reason–All Champions in since 2000 have had R+T above 10.0

Advantage: Gonzaga has a substantial advantage here, but South Carolina barely qualifies.  The Bulldogs should expect to have the chance to score 10 extra points from R+T Rating, meaning USC will have to make up for this with Field Goal margin.

Scoring Margin: Reason–Almost every team in the NCAA Championship Game throughout the history of the tournament have had scoring margins in excess of 8 points per game, and most had double-digit margins.

Advantage: Gonzaga has a substantial edge here, but USC also qualifies by the skin of their teeth.  Gonzaga’s 20+ scoring margin must be discounted a little due to their schedule, but we can adjust this to about 12 points if the Zags had played in the Pac-12.

 

Field Goal % Margin: Reason–Over 90% of all title participants have had FG% Margins in excess of 5% and a majority have had margins over 8%.  Teams with double digit margins have dominated title games when the opponent had margins under 5%.  There are exceptions, like 1985 when Villanova upset Georgetown.

Advantage: Major advantage to Gonzaga, as their FG% margin has the look of many of John Wooden’s UCLA teams.  USC does not qualify here with a FG% margin of just 2%.

PiRate Criteria Analysis: Except for conference class, Gonzaga has the look of a dominant national championship team.  However, class is just as important in college basketball as it is in horse racing.  A great horse from a small track that has several smaller stakes wins might have better numbers than the horses that run at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, and most of the time, these horses fail when running in a Grade 1 race.

Gonzaga is not your normal mid-major team.  They are more like Butler when the Bulldogs went to back-to-back title games and UNLV from 1990.  Gonzaga has the talent to win it all.  They have a dominant inside game and an underrated perimeter game.

South Carolina has a lot of heart, and their defense has stepped it up in the tournament.  The Gamecocks looked like this at the start of the season before injuries began to affect the perimeter defense.  Now, USC is fully healthy again, and the players remind us of the Gashouse Gang (The 1934 St. Louis Cardinals World Series Champions).  Opponents feel like they have gone 12 rounds with Joe Louis after 40 minutes of playing against them.

We expect South Carolina to keep this game close for the first 32 minutes or so, but after that Gonzaga’s superior inside strength will take its toll, as both teams tire late and begin to misfire from outside.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Prediction: Gonzaga 69  South Carolina 61

 

North Carolina vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Advantage–Very slight advantage to North Carolina, as the ACC is the equivalent of the AL East in Major League Baseball.  No Pac-12 team has won the title since Arizona 20 years ago.

Strength of Schedule: Advantage–Slight edge to North Carolina by an average of about 2.2 points per game

R+T Rating: Advantage–North Carolina has the largest R+T Rating in all of Division 1, as they did last year when they came within a second of winning the title.  Oregon’s rating is almost 15, which means the Ducks are exceptional as well, just not as exceptional as UNC.  Also missing 6-10 Chris Boucher in this game should be somewhat important, and the  Tar Heels will have a decided rebounding advantage, a major component of R+T.

Scoring Margin: Advantage–A Push, as both teams have similar numbers.

Field Goal % Margin: Advantage–Oregon has a minor but definite advantage with numbers that look a little more like a Championship Game participant, but teams have won the title with the same margin as the Tar Heels.  

PiRate Criteria Analysis: All during this tournament, we have been concerned about Oregon missing Boucher, thinking that eventually the Duck frontcourt would wear down in the second games of the two previous weekends.  That did not happen, as the Ducks rallied and found another gear.  We are now ready to admit to this mistake.  Oregon can win all the marbles without Boucher.  However, this is the first game where their opponent has the scary frontcourt.  Oregon needs Boucher not because of depth, but because they need a 6-10 bruiser to bang it with Carolina’s titans.

North Carolina’s perimeter play has had the look of a national champion.  The guards stepped up on both sides of the ball late in the games with Arkansas and Kentucky, refusing to end the season.  Remember too that UNC feels slighted for last year.  They had the national championship trophy in grasp until a last second shot moved that trophy over to Villanova’s locker room.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Prediction: North Carolina 85  Oregon 75

 

4 Interesting Possible National Title Games

You the typical college basketball fan is guaranteed to have a great title game Monday night no matter who wins tomorrow.  Let’s look at each of the four possibilities.

 

Gonzaga vs. North Carolina:  These are the two teams that looked like the most dominant throughout most of the season.  Earlier in the season, when these teams were playing in tournaments against quality opposition, they won handily, dominating in all facets of the game.  Also, this represents the old guard of UNC against the upstart that has been threatening to get this far for years in Gonzaga.  

Gonzaga vs. Oregon: There has not been an all West Coast National Championship Game before.  Of course, until the age when more than one team per conference going to the Big Dance, it was not possible, as these two teams would have both been in the West Regional.  Still, it would be interesting to have two teams from the Pacific Northwest facing off in the title game.

South Carolina vs. North Carolina: Many of you have not experienced a Dodgers-Yankees or Giants–Yankees World Series.  In our opinion, nothing can beat a Dodgers-Yankees World Series.  This would be an equivalent.  These two teams were both in the ACC for many years until the Gamecocks became an Independent following the 1971 season (when they were the ACC Champions).  Two former South Carolina head coaches, Frank McGuire and Eddie Fogler, had North Carolina ties, and Fogler has been BFFs with Roy Williams for decades.

South Carolina vs. Oregon: A lot of people would find it very interesting if the Seattle Mariners played the Washington Nationals in the World Series.  Not having the Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, or Giants would be a great change of pace.  The Cleveland-Chicago World Series last year did more for Major League Baseball than American Pharoh’s winning the Triple Crown in 2015.  A Gamecock-Duck National Championship Game could make fans of all Division 1 teams from Power Conferences believe their team could do it too.

 

 

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PiRate Ratings Elite 8 Preview

RED-WHITE-BLUE RATINGS

Saturday, March 25
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Gonzaga	Xavier	11	8	3
Kansas	Oregon	6	3	3

 

Sunday, March 26
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Kentucky	North Carolina	1	-2	-1
Florida	South Carolina	6	7	5

 

PiRate Ratings National Championship Criteria Breakdown of the Elite 8

Gonzaga vs. Xavier

Power Conference: Xavier-Yes, Gonzaga-No    Favors Xavier

Strength of Schedule: Xavier 58.70, Gonzaga 54.02  Favors Xavier by a little

R+T Rating: Gonzaga 20.3, Xavier 14.4  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Scoring Margin: Gonzaga 22.3, Xavier 4.0  Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

FG% Differential: Gonzaga 14.5, Xavier 1.1  Favors Gonzaga by a lot

Road W-L: Gonzaga 20-0, Xavier 12-9   Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

Winning Streaks: Gonzaga 29 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Expected Possessions in this Game: 69 per team  Favors neither team

Outcome: Gonzaga has everything going for it except conference strength and schedule.  If the Bulldogs had the same numbers and played in the Big East, they would have the perfect resume for a national champion.  However, there hasn’t been a national champion from outside a power conference since UNLV won in 1990, and before that, it was Texas Western in 1966.  Of course, non power conference teams have made it to the Final Four numerous times in the past decade.

Criteria Selection: GONZAGA 75  Xavier 70

 

Kansas vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Yes for Both   Favors neither team

Strength of Schedule: Kansas 58.11, Oregon 56.83  Only slightly favors Kansas

R+T Rating: Oregon 14.8,  Kansas 12.6  Only slightly favors Oregon

Scoring Margin: Oregon 13.5, Kansas 12.0  Not much difference

FG% Differential: Oregon 7.7, Kansas 7.5  A Push

Road W-L: Kansas 16-3, Oregon 15-5  This favors Kansas, but it is almost a home game for KU

Winning Streaks: Kansas 18 & 8, Oregon 17 & 8  A Push

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Slightly favors Kansas

Outcome: We have to include two extra criteria here.  Oregon’s stats must be slightly discounted due to the loss of Boucher, and Kansas is playing this game in their favorite venue not named Phog Allen Fieldhouse, earning about two points of home court advantage.   Otherwise, this game would be a tossup, and it still might be rather close.  However, watching what KU did to a quality Purdue team on this court Thursday night, it makes us wonder if any college team can beat Kansas in KC.  Oops!  That happened in the Big 12 Tournament, so think again–except not today.

Criteria Selection: KANSAS 83  Oregon 75

 

Florida vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both and both in the SEC so this is a third game between these teams.  Both teams won the game on their home floor.

Strength of Schedule: Florida 59.34, South Carolina 56.23  A slight edge to the Gators

R+T Rating: Florida 11.1, South Carolina 10.4  About the same

Scoring Margin: Florida 11.9, South Carolina 8.3  A small edge to the Gators

FG% Differential: Florida 4.3, South Carolina 2.3  A small edge to the Gators

Road W-L: Florida 18-7, South Carolina 10-7, actually about the same as UF played a lot of early neutral site games in their own backyard while their gym was being refurbished

Winning Streaks: Florida 9 & 7, South Carolina 8 & 5

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Favors neither team

Outcome: South Carolina’s defense in their Sweet 16 game against Baylor was the best we have seen in a game this late into the Big Dance since Georgetown manhandled Kentucky in 1984, which comes on top of one of the best offensive performances in their win over Duke.  Can the Gamecocks do this to a team that is not just a conference foe, but a rather strong rival?  Florida might also be a tad fatigued coming off the overtime win over Wisconsin, but it helps that the Gators are facing a team they know about without having to look at the film for a long time.  This will be the most exciting game of this round, even more exciting than the big UK-UNC match, because this will have the feel of the 7th game of an NBA playoff series.

Criteria Selection: FLORIDA 67  South Carolina 64

 

Kentucky vs. North Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both  Before the tourney started, the ACC might have gotten a little extra over the SEC, but with 3 of the Elite 8 from the SEC, it almost makes us think about the opposite

Strength of Schedule: North Carolina 59.00, Kentucky 58.63   A Push

R+T Rating: North Carolina 31.0,  Kentucky 17.1  UNC has the best R+T in NCAA basketball, but Kentucky’s is rather high as well, and in the course of this game, it will not give the Tar Heels a lot of advantage

Scoring Margin: North Carolina 14.7, Kentucky 13.8  Not enough difference to matter

FG% Differential: North Carolina 5.6,  Kentucky 5.2  A Push

Road W-L: Kentucky 17-3, North Carolina 14-7,  A slight edge to the Wildcats

Winning Streaks: Kentucky 14 & 7, North Carolina 13 & 7, While this looks like another push, Kentucky’s 14-game winning streak is ongoing, and there is a definite difference in the Wildcats’ performance in this streak, while Carolina played its best basketball in November and December

Expected Possessions in this Game: 74,  which favors Kentucky just like it did in December

Outcome: We selected Kentucky to run the table and win the National Championship before the NCAA Tournament started, and nothing has changed our beliefs that the Wildcats are the best team in the nation when they want to play up to their potential.  It can be difficult to motivate a stable full of future NBA Lottery picks, but Coach John Calipari is a master psychologist with an ability to coerce through his many talks with his players.  When any of the starters and a couple reserves can go off and score 25 points in a game, it is hard to prepare in advance.  Stop Monk, and someone else has a career night.

Criteria Selection: KENTUCKY 85  North Carolina 73

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 505 Sweet 16 Criteria Reveal

If you get to start anew with your brackets in whatever pool you are playing in as a participant, we have updated our PiRate Ratings Criteria for the Sweet 16.
If you played along with us, you should have 10 teams left in your Sweet 16, having 26 of the 32 first round winners. If you are in a league where you get one point for each winner that goes from 64 to 32, and two points for every correct Sweet 16 team, then you should be sitting pretty with 46 points. Hopefully, we will help you score some 3-point winners the next two nights, whether you must stick with your original picks, or you get to start over with the 16 remaining teams.

To understand our methods if you don’t already know, refer to this primer: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/bracketnomics-505-the-advanced-level-course-in-bracket-selection/

Here is a breakdown of each game for the next two nights, followed by an update at how the Elite 8 and Final Four look using our criteria.

Oregon vs. Michigan
Power Conference: Both teams

Strength of Schedule: Very slight edge to Michigan, but not enough to matter much

R+T Rating: Large edge to Oregon, as the Ducks’ R+T is 14.7 to the Wolverines’ 3.2. This means that on average, Oregon will have an opportunity through superior rebounding, ball-steals, and overall turnover differential to outscore Michigan by 11.5 points. There is a caveat, as the Ducks are missing a key component in Chris Boucher.
Ability to Win Away from Home: Oregon 14-5/Michigan 11-8. The Ducks have a decent advantage here, but not enough to move this game to the win column.

Winning Streak(s): The Ducks won 17 games in a row at one point this season and eight in a row another time, while Michigan had two, five-game winning streaks. Once again, Oregon has the advantage here, but we cannot annoint the Ducks winners just yet. Not having Boucher removes a lot of these advantages three rounds into the Big Dance.

Since the strengths of schedule are similar, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Michigan = 8.9, Oregon = 13.8, Ducks look better here
FG% Differential: Michigan = 1.9, Oregon = 7.8, Ducks look much better here, as UM fails to qualify
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 68

This is a tough game to figure out, because Boucher’s absence makes Oregon less than what the stats say. Still, the Ducks come out as the superior team based on how we use the criteria. In our original picks, we had Louisville knocking Oregon out of the tournament in this round, but the Cardinals were sent packing last weekend.

PiRate Criteria Pick: OREGON

 

Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Power Conference: West Virginia is, Gonzaga is not. A slight edge to the Mountaineers

Strength of Schedule: WVU 55.55. Gonzaga 54.02, a slight edge to the Mountaineers

R+T Rating: WVU 19.1, Gonzaga 21.2, a push when SOS is applied

Ability to Win Away from Home: WVU 11-6, Gonzaga 19-0, even with SOS factored into the equation, Gonzaga has the advantage here.

Winning Streak(s): WVU 8 & 4, Gonzaga 29 & 5, Gonzaga enjoys a small advantage

We must handicap these stats with Gonzaga playing in a weaker conference and a slightly weaker schedule
Scoring Margin: WVU 15.3, Gonzaga 22.8, a push
FG% Differential: WVU 3.4, Gonzaga 14.5
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 71

This is where we see another #1 seed going down. Gonzaga’s main Achilles Heel is their conference, where the WCC has two other quality teams. Of course, teams like Butler, George Mason, VCU, and Wichita State have advanced to the Final Four, but the percentages say that these are exceptions and not the norm. When you are trying to win a contest by going with the percentages, you go with the norm unless you have a major reason not to do so. When looking at the obvious way this game will deviate from the norm, it comes from the vaunted WVU full-court press, something that Gonzaga has not faced from a quality team this year. It is our belief that GU will commit very few turnovers against the press and even capitalize with a couple of easy baskets, making it look like to the casual fan that the press is not working. However, we believe it will take the Bulldogs out of their offense just enough to cause them to rush and make poor shot selections, and it will also begin to wear their bigger, bulkier players down in the second half. A fatigued team is only a shell of itself, and once GU is fatigued, WVU will pull away and win this game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WEST VIRGINIA

Kansas vs. Purdue
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: KU 58.11, PU 55.83, a decided advantage for the Jayhawks

R+T Rating: KU 12.3, PU 15.5, a credible advantage for the Boilermakers

Ability to Win Away from Home: KU 16-3, PU 12-5, a tiny advantage for KU

Winning Streak(s): KU 18 & 8, PU 7 & 6, KU has the advantage, but this isn’t overwhelming since PU has two 6+ streaks, and that is all we are looking for in this criterion

Since the strengths of schedule favor KU enough to matter, we must handicap the following stats.
Scoring Margin: KU 11.4, PU 12.6, with the handicap, KU has a minor advantage here
FG% Differential: KU 7.3, PU 6.4, a slight edge to the Jayhawks
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 72 which will favor KU in the 2nd half

In previous years where Purdue was very good, we would call for Kansas to easily win this game because in the past, Purdue did not own good R+T numbers. In fact, they were downright awful. However, this year is very different up in West Lafayatte, where Purdue has an R+T number strong enough to reach the Final Four. Unfortunately, Kansas has the criteria strong enough to win the National Championship, and thus we must go with the team that is only a tad better in this game. A Boilermaker win would not be a surprise at all, but we must go with the percentages.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KANSAS (but this should be an outstanding game)

Arizona vs. Xavier
Power Conference: Both (in recent years, we would discount the Pac-12 some, but not this year. Three league teams made the Sweet 16.

Strength of Schedule: Arizona 58.17, Xavier 58.70, a wash

R+T Rating: Arizona 18.0, Xavier 15.2, the Wildcats with an ever so slight advantage that is not enough to mean much

Ability to Win Away from Home: Arizona 17-3, Xavier 11-9, this is a big advantage for ‘Zona

Winning Streak(s): Arizona 15 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6, Another tiny advantage to the Wildcats

Since the strengths of schedule are almost identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Arizona 11.0, Xavier 4.1, the Wildcats have a major advantage here, as XU’s scoring margin is well beneath the threshold of a Final Four contender.
FG% Differential: Arizona 6.0, Xavier 0.9, another big edge for Arizona
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67

This one appears to be headed to a double-digit win for the higher-seeded team. Add on to the criteria the fact that Xavier has not been the same since Edmund Sumner was lost for the year at the end of January, and this game looks like a potential breeze for Arizona.
PiRate Criteria Pick: ARIZONA (by double digits)

 

North Carolina vs. Butler
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UNC 59.00, BU 59.04, a total push

R+T Rating: UNC 31.1, BU 9.5, do we really need to go on after this criterion shows the Tar Heels with a chance on average to score 20 more points on rebounds, steals, and turnovers?

Ability to Win Away from Home: UNC 13-7, BU 12-5, pretty much even here

Winning Streak(s): UNC 13 & 7, BU 12 & 5, another push

Since the strengths of schedule are identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: UNC 14.8, BU 7.8, Give the Heels a little more advantage here
FG% Differential: UNC 5.5, BU 3.7, more props for the Heels
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 70 (Butler will want to slow the pace, but they will have to play catchup)

Pirate Criteria Pick: NORTH CAROLINA

Baylor vs. South Carolina
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: BU 59.40, USC 56.23, the Bears have a little advantage here

R+T Rating: BU 19.3, USC 10.4, Baylor with decent advantage in this one

Ability to Win Away from Home: BU 12-5, USC 11-7, another tilt to the Bears

Winning Streak(s): BU 15 & 5, USC 8 & 5, BU with yet another advantage

Since the strengths of schedule favors Baylor, the following stats must be handicapped a little
Scoring Margin: BU 10.1, USC 7.9, the criteria keeps tilting green
FG% Differential: BU 7.2, USC 1.9, this continues the trend
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67, Baylor will conrol the pace.

PiRate Criteria Pick: BAYLOR

 

Kentucky vs. UCLA
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UK 58.63, UCLA 54.00, a nice advantage for the Wildcats, but UCLA still meets the minimum number for Final Four consideration, and remember UCLA won at Kentucky earlier this season

R+T Rating: UK 17.2, UCLA 10.9

Ability to Win Away from Home: UK 16-3, UCLA 14-3, nothing to learn here

Winning Streak(s): UK 13 & 7, UCLA 13 & 10, not much here either

We must handicap the following stats in UK’s favor fde to the strengths of schedule
Scoring Margin: UK 13.9, UCLA 15.0, basically a wash
FG% Differential: UK 5.4, UCLA 10.2, The Bruins pick up a big advantage here with Championship-caliber differential
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 74, expect the most up-tempo game of the Sweet 16, and it could even top 75.

Face it: this is the game that is going to make this round. The winner most likely plays North Carolina in the Elite 8, making for a fantastic 48-hours in Memphis, where they could move these games to the Liberty Bowl and still not have enough seats for the fans that want to get in. Think of this game like the second Ali-Frazier fight. Or, if you are a Bruin fan over the age of 55, be forewarned and remember that Houston beat your Bruins in the 1967-68 regular season before meeting up with the worst ever whipping by a number one team in the history of the game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KENTUCKY — Until the Wildcats are knocked out of the tournament, they have the best resume when comparing it to past National Champions.

 

Florida vs. Wisconsin
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: Fla 59.34, UW 54.79, The Gators have a decided advantage

R+T Rating: Fla 3.3, UW 3.3 This is a dirty wash, as neither team can expect to be a Championship team with these R+T ratings.

Ability to Win Away from Home: Fla 17-7, UW 12-7, Florida played a lot of neutral site games near home when their arena was not ready following remodeling. This becomes a wash

Winning Streak(s): Fla. 9 & 7, UW 9 & 8, a wash

Since the strengths of schedule favor the Gators, the following stats must be handicapped in UF’s favor. Scoring Margin: UF 6.2, UW 9.2, a wash
FG% Differential: UF 4.6, UW 4.2, a small edge for the Gators
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 69 We look for the Badgers to slow the tempo a little

When Florida isn’t playing Vanderbilt, they look like Final Four contenders. Actually, two of the three losses to the Commodores came after the Gators lost John Egbunu for the season due to injury, and UF went from 23-5 to 24-8 after that loss. This discounts the Gators’ results enough to make up for the schedule strength favor. In other words, this is a game where you flip a coin. We do not use the Four Factors in this criteria selection process, but if we were to use them for this game, it would just add a bunch of balance, as the teams would come out dead even. We must select somebody to go on and lose to Baylor Sunday, and just because they have a little more recent NCAA Tournament success, we will go with the Badgers.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WISCONSIN –but this is really a tie

Elite 8 to Final Four
Baylor over Wisconsin
Arizona over West Virginia
Kentucky over North Carolina
Kansas over Oregon

Semifinals
Baylor over Arizona
Kentucky over Kansas

Championship
Kentucky over Baylor

Note: When we first revealed the criteria for all 68 teams in the dance, we listed the top 10 teams with the best matching criteria to past champions. The top 6 teams in this list, and 8 of the 10 made the Sweet 16. Here is that top 10 again.
1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Baylor
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Villanova
9. Kansas
10. Purdue

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Games

Sweet 16

Thursday, March 23
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Oregon	Michigan	-1	-1	-1
Gonzaga	West Virginia	4	2	9
Kansas	Purdue	4	4	1
Arizona	Xavier	4	4	4

 

Friday, March 24
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
North Carolina	Butler	6	6	12
Baylor	South Carolina	3	5	7
Kentucky	UCLA	2	-1	1
Florida	Wisconsin	5	4	-2

 

TV Schedule

Region	Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
Thursday, March 23
Midwest	7:09 PM	CBS	Oregon	vs.	Michigan
West	7:39 PM	TBS	Gonzaga	vs.	West Virginia
Midwest	9:39 PM	CBS	Kansas	vs.	Purdue
West	10:09 PM	TBS	Arizona	vs.	Xavier
Friday, March 24
South	7:09 PM	CBS	North Carolina	vs.	Butler
East	7:29 PM	TBS	Baylor	vs.	South Carolina
South	9:39 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	UCLA
East	9:59 PM	TBS	Florida	vs.	Wisconsin
Saturday, March 25
Midwest	TBA	TBA	Oregon/Michigan	vs.	Kansas/Purdue
West	TBA	TBA	Gonzaga/WVU	vs.	Arizona/Xavier
Sunday, March 26
South	TBA	TBA	UNC/Butler	vs.	Kentucky/UCLA
East	TBA	TBA	Baylor/S Car	vs.	Florida/Wisconsin

 

 

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Sunday, March 18, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Louisville	Michigan	4	3	6
Kentucky	Wichita St.	1	1	8
Kansas	Michigan St.	11	8	1
North Carolina	Arkansas	14	10	8
Oregon	Rhode Island	7	6	4
Baylor	USC	17	9	8
Duke	South Carolina	6	6	5
UCLA	Cincinnati	1	1	-1

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:10 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Michigan
2:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Wichita St.
5:15 PM	CBS	Kansas	vs.	Michigan St.
6:10 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Arkansas
7:10 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Rhode Island
7:45 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	USC
8:40 PM	TNT	Duke	vs.	South Carolina
9:40 PM	TBS	UCLA	vs.	Cincinnati

Morning & Afternoon: Swallow Return to Capistrano

Spring Equinox: Monday, March 20, 2017 @ 6:29 AM EDT

 

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-1	3	1
Baylor	New Mexico St.	11	12	13
Arkansas	Seton Hall	2	1	-1
Oregon	Iona	11	12	10
Louisville	Jacksonville St.	18	18	17
SMU	USC	8	8	4
North Carolina	Texas Southern	22	20	19
Creighton	Rhode Island	4	1	2
Kansas	UC-Davis	22	19	18
Dayton	Wichita St.	-7	-5	-1
Duke	Troy	15	16	14
Cincinnati	Kansas St.	2	5	2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	1	2	-2
Kentucky	Northern Kentucky	19	18	13
South Carolina	Marquette	1	-1	1
UCLA	Kent St.	16	14	10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:15 PM	CBS	Michigan	vs.	Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	New Mexico St.
1:30 PM	TNT	Arkansas	vs.	Seton Hall
2:00 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Iona
2:45 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM	truTV	SMU	vs.	USC
4:00 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Texas Southern
4:30 PM	TBS	Creighton	vs.	Rhode Island
6:50 PM	TNT	Kansas	vs.	UC-Davis
7:10 PM	CBS	Dayton	vs.	Wichita St.
7:20 PM	TBS	Duke	vs.	Troy
7:27 PM	truTV	Cincinnati	vs.	Kansas St.
9:20 PM	TNT	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Michigan St.
9:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM	TBS	South Carolina	vs.	Marquette
9:57 PM	truTV	UCLA	vs.	Kent St.

 

 

 

Conference Tournament Update–Saturday, March 11, 2017

Joining The Field

You might be thinking, “Wait, there were no conference championship games Friday, so how could there be an addition to the automatic bid list?”

It is a technicality issue.  In the SWAC, Alcorn State is ineligible for postseason play, but they were eligible for the conference tournament.  The Braves have made it to the Championship Game of the SWAC Tournament, but they cannot receive a bid to the NCAA Tournament.  Their opponent tonight is Texas Southern, the regular season SWAC champion.  The rules in the SWAC state that if the conference tournament champion is ineligible for the postseason, the regular season champion gets the automatic bid.  Thus, Texas Southern is in the Dance no matter what happens tonight in the conference championship game.

We rarely issue opinions on matters like this, but this one seems obvious.  The conference championship game is now meaningless, and leagues like the SWAC struggle to fill seats in tournament games if they do not put them on the home courts of the higher seeds.  This league does not include all their members in the conference tournament, yet they included an ineligible team.  It seems obvious that the SWAC should have kept Alcorn State out of the conference tournament and allowed Arkansas-Pine Bluff (one of two teams left out) to participate.  That at least would make the Championship Game mean something.

Today’s Schedule

All times Eastern Standard 

America East Conference Tournament Championship — Vermont Hosts
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Vermont	28-5	vs.	3	Albany	21-12	11:00 AM	ESPN2

Vermont has a perfect America East record this year, now at 16-0, as they prepare to host Albany.  The last time these two teams met, Albany took a seven-point first half lead in Burlington, before the Catamounts clawed back into the lead in the second half.  The game was still close with less than four minutes remaining before a big closing run by VU produced a 12-point victory.  David Nichols kept Albany in that game with his three-point shooting, and if the Great Danes are to pull off the upset, they will need to be hot from behind the arc.  Vermont should win its 21st consecutive game and become a feisty lower-seed foe for a second round biggie.

 

American Athletic Conference Tournament Semifinals–Hartford,CT
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	SMU	28-4	vs.	4	Central Florida	21-10	3:00 PM	ESPN2
2	Cincinnati	28-4	vs.	6	Connecticut	16-16	5:00 PM	ESPN2

One might think that SMU and Cincinnati have this tournament semifinals all wrapped up and will face off tomorrow in a rubber game to decide the conference tournament title winner.  Think again.  Central Florida and Connecticut are worthy competitors, and both teams have the ability to pull off upsets.

Cincinnati destroyed UConn both times they played, but the Huskies have a knack for becoming a different team in conference tournament play.  They looked like they were poised for a repeat performance after smashing a good Houston team and ending the Couagars’ hopes of an at-large bid.

Central Florida presents incredible matchup problems with 7-6 behemoth Tacko Fall able to alter gameplans all by himself.  UCF has won six consecutive games, and Coach Johnny Dawkins knows how to use Fall to suck defenders in so that his prime long-range shooters, Matt Williams, B J Taylor, and Nick Banyard, can get open looks.  UCF hit 14 three-pointers in their decimation of Memphis.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Championship–Brooklyn
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	Duke	26-8	vs.	3	Notre Dame	25-8	9:00 PM	ESPN

Neither team was picked by most of the ACC media experts to make it to the championship game of this tournament.  Duke dropped Louisville and North Carolina to make it here, while Notre Dame took care of business against Virginia and Florida St.  Both teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament, so the two are playing for pride and a chance to move up one seed line in the Dance.  Duke won at Notre Dame in their only meeting this year, and this win occurred during Coach K’s absence with Jeff Capel guiding the team.  The Blue Devils had a hot streak in that game, hitting over 50% from the field and an amazing 23 of 24 at the foul line.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Semifinals–Pittsburgh (Duquense)
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9	Davidson	17-14	vs.	4	Rhode Island	22-9	1:00 PM	CBSSN
2	VCU	25-7	vs.	3	Richmond	20-11	3:30 PM	CBSSN

Nervous fans of teams on the Bubble will be watching this league the next two days.  With top-seed Dayton dismissed by Davidson, there are three teams left in this quartet that can burst some bubbles elsewhere.  Rhode Island may have already played itself in to the NCAA Tournament, but Richmond and Davidson must win the automatic bid.  This tournament should be must watch this afternoon if your team still needs some help.

 

Big 12 Conference Tournament Championship–Kansas City
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Iowa St.	22-10	vs.	2	West Virginia	26-7	6:00 PM	ESPN

They hit just 26.7% of their shots, and their press was not very effective yesterday, but West Virginia found a way to beat Kansas State, doing so by dominating on the glass.  Now, the Mountaineers go for the Big 12 Title against an Iowa State team that did not fare well against WVU in two previous tries.

In both games, the Cyclones wore out with fatigue from facing full-court pressure.  WVU went on big runs both times to win by double digits.  ISU might have more fatigue problems tonight, since this is their third game in three days.  The Mountaineers seemed to look a little tired as well last night, but Coach Huggins provided the adrenaline needed to get over the hump.

 

Big East Conference Tournament Championship–New York City
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Villanova	30-3	vs.	6	Creighton	25-8	5:30 PM	Fox

Villanova already knows they will be a #1 seed as they attempt to defend their National Championship, but the Wildcats can secure the overall top-seed with a win over the Blue Jays this afternoon.  Both teams were down a key player when they met most recently, but VU has its key player back now in power forward Darryl Reynolds.  Reynolds has been pulling down the tough rebounds in his three games back, and the Wildcats once again have the look of a Final Four team.

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament Championship–Reno, NV
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	North Dakota	21-9	vs.	3	Weber St.	19-12	8:30 PM	ESPNU

North Dakota swept the season series with Weber State, including the big win back in February that put the Fighting Hawks in control of the Big Sky race.  UND won with their incredible guard tandem of Quinton Hooker and Geno Crandall, and WSU will have to come up with an incredible defensive gameplan to keep UND out of the Big Dance.  The Hawks are hoping a convincing win can help them avoid a layover in Dayton.

 

Big Ten Conference Tournament Semifinals–Washington, DC
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8	Michigan	22-11	vs.	4	Minnesota	24-8	1:00 PM	CBS
2	Wisconsin	24-8	vs.	6	Northwestern	23-10	3:30 PM	CBS

The four teams remaining will not hurt anybody else’s Bubble chances, as they will all receive Dance invitations, but there is still drama remaining in this tournament.  Michigan survived a travel nightmare just to get to this tournament.  Northwestern has never been a factor in this tournament and has not won a Big Ten title of any kind.  Meanwhile, it would make for a terrific championship game tomorrow if neighboring rivals Minnesota and Wisconsin played for the trophy.  It also would give the Big Ten a chance to move a team into the 4-seed line.

 

Big West Conference Tournament Championship–Anaheim
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	UC-Irvine	21-13	vs.	2	UC-Davis	21-12	11:30 PM	ESPN2

The top two seeds split their two regular season meetings, but UC-Irvine thoroughly embarrassed UC-Davis when they met in Irvine last week with the regular season title on the line.  The Anteaters opened the game with a 22-3 lead, and the Aggies never threatened the rest of the way.  UCI connected on 14 treys in that game.

 

Conference USA Tournament Championship–Birmingham, AL
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Middle Tennessee	29-4	vs.	6	Marshall	20-14	8:30 PM	CBSSN

This game might be the most exciting one of the entire day, and the fact that Middle Tennessee might already have done enough to lock up an at-large bid will not take anything away from the excitement this game promises.  Expect the shot clock to play very little factor in this game, as both teams like to push the tempo.

If you like to follow the Houston Rockets with James Harden, Lou Williams, and Eric Gordon playing like thoroughbred race horses, then Marshall is the team for you.  There is a good reason why the Thundering Herd plays like the Rockets, as they are coached by Dan D’Antoni, Mike’s brother.  The Thundering Herd run up and down the floor like UNLV from the 1970’s, but they have one huge Achilles’ Heel.  They cannot rebound very well.  Middle Tennessee is an average rebounding team, but the Blue Raiders swept Marshall in the regular season thanks to spreading the wealth around.  In their most recent game against the Herd, MTSU placed six players in double figures, while a seventh had nine points in a 97-86 win.  Get your popcorn and soda ready for this one, as it will give you two hours of pure viewing pleasure.

 

Ivy League Tournament Semifinals–Philadelphia
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Princeton	21-6	vs.	4	Penn	13-14	1:30 PM	ESPNU
2	Harvard	18-9	vs.	3	Yale	17-10	4:00 PM	ESPNU

We aren’t going to hide our joy over this tournament finally becoming a reality.  The Ivy League plays quality fundamental basketball.  If you play or coach at a lower level and must use sound principles and intelligence for your team to win, this is the league for you to watch.

Princeton aced the field this year with a perfect 14-0 league mark, and if the Tigers knock off rival Penn tonight and then win tomorrow, they should be a 13-seed in the Tournament with a somewhat decent chance to knock off the right type of 4-seed (not West Virginia or Cincinnati).  Having legendary rivals Harvard and Yale play in the second game just makes this inaugural affair perfect.

Harvard took Princeton to the wire in both games, but the Tigers handled the Bulldogs rather easily.  Few fans are giving Penn much chance in this tournament, but they are getting to host this thing at the Palestra, which should give the Quakers about 5-6 points in home court advantage.

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament Championship–Cleveland
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Akron	26-7	vs.	6	Kent St.	21-13	7:30 PM	ESPN2

A February swoon cost Akron any chance of qualifying as an at-large team should they not win the MAC automatic bid.  Included in that fall was a three-point loss at home to Kent State, as the Golden Flashes put an end to the Zips’ 30-game home winning streak.  Akron recovered to win at Kent State last week, so this should be an interesting rematch and close to a 50-50 tossup.

 

Mideast Athletic Conference Tournament Championship–Norfolk, VA (Norfolk St.)
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	UNC-Central	24-8	vs.	2	Norfolk St.	17-15	1:00 PM	ESPN2

UNC-Central has remained unnoticed among the nation’s basketball fans outside of the MEAC, but the Eagles have gone 15-2 in their last 17 games and fared rather well in its road games against the power conference teams.  Should UNCC win and then be forced to head to Dayton, the Eagles would most likely emerge victorious and advance, but a win today coupled with an upset somewhere else could be all that it takes to keep Central out of Dayton.  If Norfolk State pulls off the upset, they can send their laundry to Dayton on the next express out of Norfolk.  It does help that the Spartans get to play this game on their home floor.

 

Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship–Las Vegas (UNLV)
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Nevada	27-6	vs.	2	Colorado St.	28-6	6:00 PM	CBS

These two teams squared off last Saturday in Reno with the top seed in this tournament on the line.  Nevada won by 13, controlling the tempo and going on a big 20-3 run in the middle of the game.  Nevada is a team without a glaring weakness, albeit not on the same page with Kentucky and Oregon.  The Wolf Pack have a lineup similar to SMU in that all five starters can play in the wing positions and can post up inside.  It reminds us a lot of Louisville during Denny Crum’s time when he had big-time stars like Junior Bridgman, Darrel Griffith, Jim Price, and Ron Thomas.

Colorado State plays a muscle power game and tries to grind opponents down.  The Rams rely on senior guard Gian Clavell to score points, and when his shots are off, CSU can struggle to score.  In the Rams’ favor tonight is the fact that they just played Nevada a week ago and know what they are going to face, as there has not been time to tweak the gameplans all that much.

 

Pac-12 Conference Tournament Championship–Las Vegas
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Oregon	29-4	vs.	2	Arizona	29-4	11:00 PM	ESPN

Our Red-White-Blue Ratings that we will not publish today actually indicate that this game is a true tossup.  In fact, two of the ratings show the spread at 0!  The top two seeds met just once in the regular season, and Oregon used a 36-9 run in the first half to put the game away quickly.  The Ducks have the top home court advantage in America, so the 27-point margin of victory can be tossed out the window, and you can give the Wildcats a little more incentive to seek revenge tonight.  However, we think the Ducks have the better roster, and that gives Oregon the slight edge.

 

Southeastern Conference Tournament Semifinals–Nashville
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Kentucky	27-5	vs.	5	Alabama	19-13	1:00 PM	ESPN
7	Vanderbilt	19-14	vs.	3	Arkansas	24-8	3:20 PM	ESPN

Vanderbilt played its way into the NCAA Tournament with its third win over Florida.  The Commodores should be able to avoid a First Four game in Dayton as well.

Alabama has the potential to give Kentucky all it can handle.  Had the Tide hit their free throws in their one contest against the Wildcats, they could have won their regular season game in Tuscaloosa.  This is Nashville, and the last time we checked, Nashville was about halfway between these two schools’ campuses, but it will look more like Rupp Arena this afternoon as the Music City is crawling with Royal Blue clothed tourists up and down Broadway and in Hatty B’s Hot Chicken.

Arkansas and Vanderbilt played two close games this year, with the visiting team winning both times.  Since the Commodores won at Bud Walton, Arkansas has been a different team.  The Razorbacks have won seven of eight games, including a road victory over South Carolina.

 

Southland Conference Tournament Championship–Katy, TX (Greater Houston area)
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	New Orleans	19-11	vs.	2	Texas A&M-CC	20-10	9:30 PM	ESPN2

Disclaimer: We cannot preview this game in an impartial manner.  We will not withhold the secret that we are rooting like crazy for Coach Willis Wilson to guide TAMCCU to the Big Dance.  A finer man in the coaching business does not exist, and Wilson has not been given the accolades that should have been afforded to him.  The Rice alum coached at his alma mater for 18 years, taking the Owls to the near edge of NCAA qualification only to come up a tad short, having to make do with the NIT.  Trying to win at Rice is extremely tough, as the high-academic standards and having to be the number two team in the city of Houston did not help the Owls recruit players to Main Street, where on a sunny day, more folks turn out to the zoo across the street than come to the Rice basketball games.

Wilson has built up the TAMCCU program to the point where the Islanders have made consecutive trips to the CIT, as Stephen F. Austin dominated the league under former coach Brad Underwood.  Tonight, the Islanders have their best shot at making the Dance, where they have been just once before, back in 2007.

New Orleans also has a nice story that needs to be told.  The basketball program shut down after the 2009-2010 season and stayed dark for two seasons before re-emerging as one of the final two teams to play as an independent (Cal State Bakersfield is the other).  The Privateers have had a somewhat storied history with a bevy of excellent coaches working in the Crescent City (Ron Greene, Butch van Breda Kolff, Bennie Dees, Tim Floyd, and Buzz Williams).  They have made it to four NCAA Tournaments, albeit none in the last 20 years, and they actually have won Dance win over BYU in 1987.  There will be emotions running wild on both sides tonight, so check this game out if only for a little bit of your time.

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament Championship–Houston
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Texas Southern	22-11	vs.	2	Alcorn St. *	18-13	6:30 PM	ESPNU
*	Alcorn St. is ineligible for the postseason. Texas Southern earns automatic bid win or lose tonight.

We have already spoken about this game and the fact that it does not matter if TSU wins or loses, since they already own the automatic bid.  However, it will help the Tigers to win this game, because we believe they will definitely avoid Dayton with a win tonight, and they could be punished and sent to Dayton if they lose.

The game should be entertaining and nip and tuck, as TSU had difficulty beating Alcorn twice this year, once by a bucket, and once in overtime.  Unfortunately, the one player that might have made a difference for the Tigers against a power conference team, muscular forward and former SWAC POY Derrick Griffin, decided to leave school to prepare for the pro draft–not the NBA, but the NFL, where he stands a good chance of being drafted as a mighty big receiver target.

 

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Semifinals–New Orleans
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	UT-Arlington	25-7	vs.	4	Texas St.	19-12	12:30 PM	ESPN3
2	Georgia St.	20-11	vs.	6	Troy	20-14	3:00 PM	ESPN3

There are some Bracketologists that believe UT-Arlington will have done enough to get an at-large bid if they beat Texas State this afternoon and lose tomorrow, but 12 of our 13 Bracketology Gurus beg to differ.  The Mavericks are the team to beat in this tourney, but the other three teams don’t fear UTA.  In fact, Texas State and Troy both know they can beat the top seed, as they did so convincingly during the regular season.  Still, UTA is a team that defeated Saint Mary’s and had a double-digit lead at Arkansas before the Razorbacks nipped them in the final minute.  If the Mavericks win the automatic bid, it would not surprise us at all if they move up to a 12-seed, the one seed that has become the seed of upsets.

 

Western Athletic Conference Tournament Championship–Las Vegas
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Cal St. Bakersfield	22-8	vs.	2	New Mexico St.	27-5	11:00 PM	ESPNU

When we think of Bakersfield, we think of the “Bakersfield Sound” that produced stars like Merle Haggard, Buck Owens, and Jean Shepard.  Our founder also thinks of some great Bakersfield Dodgers baseball teams in the Class A California League that produced future Dodgers stars like Ron Cey, Steve Yeager, Doug Rau, Eric Karros, Pedro and Ramon Martinez, John Wetteland, and Mike Piazza.

Others might think of all the farmland in and around the area or the giant arch just off Highway 99.  Basketball does not come to mind when one thinks of Bakersfield.  Yet, the Roadrunners, under former Ole Miss coach Rod Barnes, are just one win away from making their second consecutive trip to the Big Dance.

It will be no cakewalk tonight for the top-seeded Roadrunners.  Their opponent is a formidable foe, and New Mexico State might even be considered the favorite in this game.  The teams match up favorably well, and this looks like a championship game where if they played a best of seven series, it would go seven games.

CSUB has one big disadvantage tonight.  The Roadrunners were forced to play an extra half last night, when Utah Valley took them to 4 overtimes.  The Roadrunners shot less than 30% from the field, gave up an astronomical 68 rebounds to Utah Valley, and they still won, because they forced the Wolverines into committing 28 turnovers and stole the ball 11 times.

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Gurus Update for Saturday AM

1. Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2. Kentucky, Oregon, Duke, Arizona
3. Baylor, Louisville, West Virginia, Florida St.
4. UCLA, Notre Dame, Butler, Minnesota
5. Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa St., SMU
6. Virginia, Purdue, Wisconsin, Creighton
7. Maryland, Saint Mary’s, Michigan, Wichita St.
8. Virginia Tech, Miami, Northwestern, VCU
9. Arkansas, South Carolina, Dayton, Oklahoma St.
10. Middle Tennessee, Marquette, Michigan St., Seton Hall
11. Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier, Wake Forest, USC
12. UT-Arlington, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Kansas St., Syracuse
13. Vermont, Princeton, Akron, Bucknell
14. East Tennessee St., Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Winthrop
15. Iona, Texas Southern, Northern Kentucky, UC-Irvine
16. South Dakota St., UNC-Central, Jacksonville St., Texas A&M CC, North Dakota, Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes

Seton Hall

Providence

Vanderbilt

Xavier

Last Four In–Headed to Dayton

Wake Forest vs. USC

Kansas St. vs. Syracuse

First Four Out

Rhode Island–can jump into the field with a win Saturday

Illinois State

California

Alabama–we jumped the Tide up here, because they are the only team still playing with a chance to move up.  All others in this spot have no chance to make the field and have no games left to play (Illinois, Iowa, Houston, TCU, Georgia, Indiana)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For January 21-22, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, January 21, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Boston College	North Carolina	-17	-20	-15
Notre Dame	Syracuse	10	9	10
Florida St.	Louisville	2	1	2
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	-1	1	-1
Virginia	Georgia Tech	17	20	22
Duke	Miami (Fla.)	10	11	14
Kansas	Texas	17	19	15
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	-2	-4	-3
Texas Tech	Oklahoma St.	3	5	3
Kansas St.	West Virginia	-4	-7	-1
TCU	Baylor	-1	-2	-6
Villanova	Providence	17	19	15
DePaul	Butler	-13	-16	-17
Creighton	Marquette	9	9	14
Rutgers	Nebraska	1	-2	-6
Purdue	Penn St.	14	16	14
Michigan	Illinois	6	8	-1
Indiana	Michigan St.	8	8	3
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-1	-4	5
Washington St.	Colorado	-5	-6	-7
UCLA	Arizona	7	6	1
Oregon	Stanford	15	18	14
Washington	Utah	-4	-3	-6
Oregon St.	California	-11	-14	-11
Florida	Vanderbilt	14	14	11
Texas A&M	Georgia	1	3	3
Missouri	Ole Miss	-3	-4	-8
Auburn	Alabama	2	1	-2
Kentucky	South Carolina	14	17	14
Tennessee	Mississippi St.	7	5	10
Arkansas	LSU	13	14	13
Gonzaga	Portland	31	32	26

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, January 22, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Seton Hall	St. John’s	9	10	10
Ohio St.	Northwestern	1	2	2
Xavier	Georgetown	10	10	7
Clemson	Virginia Tech	6	8	8
USC	Arizona St.	10	10	10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25 (A Four Factors Metric-Based Ranking)

1. Villanova
2. Kentucky
3. Kansas
4. Virgina
5. North Carolina
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Wisconsin
9. West Virginia
10. Baylor
11. Arizona
12. Butler
13. UCLA
14. Creighton
15. Oregon
16. Florida St.
17. Duke
18. Cincinnati
19. Notre Dame
20. Florida
21. Purdue
22. St. Mary’s
23. South Carolina
24. SMU
25. Kansas St.

 

ACC

1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. Louisville
4. Florida St.
5. Duke
6. Notre Dame
7. Clemson
8. Miami (Fla)
9. Wake Forest
10. Syracuse
11. Virginia Tech
12. Pittsburgh
13. North Carolina St.
14. Georgia Tech
15. Boston College

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Butler
3. Creighton
4. Xavier
5. Marquette
6. Seton Hall
7. Providence
8. Georgetown
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Indiana
4. Northwestern
5. Minnesota
6. Michigan St.
7. Maryland
8. Michigan
9. Ohio St.
10. Illinois
11. Penn St.
12. Nebraska
13. Iowa
14. Rutgers

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Kansas St.
5. Iowa St.
6. Texas Tech
7. TCU
8. Oklahoma St.
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Pac-12

1. Arizona
2. UCLA
3. Oregon
4. Utah
5. USC
6. California
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Washington
10. Arizona St.
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Georgia
5. Arkansas
6. Alabama
7. Tennessee
8. Mississippi St.
9. Texas A&M
10. Vanderbilt
11. Ole Miss
12. Auburn
13. LSU
14. Missouri

Must Watch Games This Week

Saturday

Notre Dame vs. Syracuse on ESPN at 12PM EST

Florida St. vs. Louisville on ESPN at 2PM EST

UCLA vs. Arizona on CBS at 4PM EST

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin on Big Ten Network at 4:30 PM EST

Kentucky vs. South Carolina on ESPN at 6PM EST

TCU vs. Baylor on ESPNU at 8PM EST

 

Sunday

Ohio St. vs. Northwestern on ESPN at 1PM EST

Watch football afterwards

 

We hoped to have our first 30 Bracketology Guru report of the season today, but to date we have only received lists from 11 gurus.  Apparently, the guys and one gal prefer to wait until the weekend games have been played, so we will try to debut our annual bracketology report Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 24-28, 2016

Tiny Profit

After a week in which we won two of our five selected parlays, our profit for the season has fallen to a slim margin, but it is a profit.  For the year, we have invested $4,900 in imaginary dollars, and our return has been $5,152.  The $252 in imaginary profit gives us a return on investment of 5%.

This week, we are going with six parlay selections.  One of these is a five-game parlay, and we have not yet won a five-gamer this year.  We have won multiple four-game parlays this year.

November 22-28, 2016

1. College Parlay at +175

Oregon over Oregon St.

North Texas over UTEP

2. College Parlay at +126

Bowling Green over Buffalo

Maryland over Rutgers

Penn St. over Michigan St.

Miami (Fla.) over Duke

Alabama over Auburn

3. College Parlay at +173

Arkansas over Missouri

North Carolina over NC St.

Arizona St. over Arizona

4. College Parlay at +183

Louisiana Tech over Southern Miss.

Wisconsin over Minnesota

Colorado over Utah

South Florida over Central Florida

UTSA over Charlotte

5. NFL Parlay at +189

Detroit over Minnesota

Tennessee over Chicago

6. NFL Parlay at +140

Buffalo over Jacksonville

New Orleans over Los Angeles

N.Y. Giants over Cleveland

College Football Ratings & Spreads For September 15-17, 2016

The Best Schedule in a September Saturday in Years

This will be a week for college football fanatics to arrange their schedules to be glued to your viewing devices.  Forget mowing that lawn; the groceries can be shopped for Friday after work.  Tell your spouses that their honey-do list for this Saturday must be postponed, and let them know that the buckaroos at the PiRate Ratings have ordered you to do research this week.

This week’s schedule of games might even be better on the whole than rivalry weeks at the end of the season.  Let’s look at some of the great offerings, and by great, we don’t necessarily mean top 10 teams facing off against each other.  There are even great games among the bottom 30 teams.

Actually, the festivities commence Thursday night, when Houston visits Cincinnati.  This is somewhat of a trap game for the Cougars.  It is their first road game, and it comes against a solid but not spectacular conference foe.  Cincinnati began the season with a lackluster victory over a cream puff, and then won at Purdue last week.  The Bearcats are just talented enough to play their best game of the season and upset Houston.  It should be a great game with a good deal of scoring.

 

On Friday night, in what looks like a possible blowout, Rice hosts Baylor.  At one time, when both teams were Southwest Conference members, this was a huge rivalry game, not unlike Texas and Arkansas.  Baylor has won the last seven times these teams have faced off, with the last Owl win coming in the old SWC days in 1992.  Baylor put up 70 points on Rice last year in Waco, and even thought the Bears are several touchdowns stronger, this game might be interesting for awhile.

 

Now to Saturday, when the fun continues in bunches.

12 Noon Eastern Time

ABC: Florida State at Louisville

Don’t be surprised if the home team Cardinals pull the upset here.  Coach Bobby Petrino has built an offense at UL that could end the season averaging north of 50 points per game.  The defense is not Top 5 tough like other teams, but we are not sure that Florida State’s defense is ready to win it a championship either.  In a shootout, the better gunman usually wins, and Louisville has the better sharpshooter.  This one could be a 45-41 affair, and it is a 50-50 game in our opinion.  The PiRate Ratings are 100% in agreement with the winner.  See below.

Big Ten Network: Temple at Penn State

Coach James Franklin has felt that seat start to warm up in not so Happy Valley.  Losing to rival Pitt is not great, but losing for a second season to Temple could add some gas to that flame under the seat.  Temple imploded against Army, and then the Owls could not stop the option.  They righted the ship last week, and Penn State better play mistake-free ball and not give TU any gift points.

12:30 PM

ACC Network: Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech

Why is this game so important?  Both teams need this game to stay in the bowl chase this early in the season.  Georgia Tech pulled out a last-second win against Boston College in Dublin, Ireland, in week one.  The Yellow Jackets looked much better this past weekend, but they only played FCS Mercer.  This week, they face a coach that earned his job by stopping the read option, and Coach Derek Mason of Vanderbilt probably knows how to stop the spread option like his Stanford defenses did against Marcus Mariota’s Oregon offense.

The problem is that Vanderbilt’s offense is as weak as Boston College’s offense, and the Commodores may have trouble reaching 14 points in this game.  A 17-14 game would not be a shocker, although we believe that both teams will improve on the attack side after two so-so performances.  We believe the game could be won by less than a touchdown, with Tech having a 60% chance and Vanderbilt a 40% chance of winning.

3:30 PM

Big  Ten Network: Colorado at Michigan

Could it be that Coach Mike MacIntyre has turned the Buffalo program around?  After blowing out rival Colorado State at Invesco Field in week one, CU toyed with Idaho State in week two.  Sure, these are not quality opponents, but in recent years, CU might have gone 1-1 against these teams.

Playing at the Big House against a tough group of Wolverines is probably too much for the Buffs to take on, but it could be a very interesting game if CU does not turn the ball over.

 

WatchESPN App: South Florida at Syracuse

This will be an interesting contest with a team in Syracuse that might throw 50-60 passes and run off 100 scrimmage plays in a game before the season ends, and a South Florida team that plays the Stanford-Michigan smashmouth offense.  USF might be the one team that can derail Houston if the two meet in the AAC Championship Game, and the Bulls just might be a dark horse contender for the New Year’s 6 Bowl.  However, Coach Dino Babers has the ‘Cuse playing well above their level of 2015, and The Orangemen could just as easily end USF’s hopes for playing on January 2.

 

ABC: Oregon at Nebraska

Call this game a playoff eliminator.  The loser can win out and still miss the playoffs, while the winner stays alive with the hope that a 13-0 season will get them to Atlanta or Glendale, AZ.  Coach Mike Riley certainly knows Oregon well, having coached at Oregon State so long, but then Mark Helfrich knows a lot about what Riley’s teams do.  So, it should come down to which team executes its game plan better.  The Huskers can be an extra touchdown better in Lincoln than on a neutral field, and Oregon has not been a giant killer on the road in recent years.

 

CBS Sports Network: San Diego State at Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois is off to its worst start in years at 0-2, while SDSU is 2-0.  Why would we call this a game worth watching?  First, NIU’s first two games were road games, and the Huskies have a 31-2 home record in the last six years.  They won’t bend or break at Huskie Stadium.

Rocky Long may have the best team he’s ever coached in his career this season.  San Diego State has a decent chance of running the table in the regular season for the first time since 1969, when Dennis Shaw ran the Air Coryell offense to perfection.  The Aztecs have a couple of roadblock road games with trips to Dekalb this week and then to South Alabama in two weeks.  If they can get through these games unscathed, then you can add another prime contender with Houston, South Florida, Boise State, and maybe another MAC team for the NY6 Bowl bid.

 

CBS: Alabama at Ole Miss

Ole Miss is the one team that doesn’t back down to the Crimson Tide.  The Rebels have beaten ‘Bama in back-to-back years.  When has a team beaten Alabama three years in a row, when the Tide was not going through a rough patch where they did not stay in the Top 10?  It’s never been done when Alabama finished in the Top 10 all three seasons.  The closest was the 1967-68-69 seasons when Tennessee beat the Tide, but in 1969, Alabama had declined and would finish 6-5.

Ole Miss blew an excellent opportunity to make this a game between two Top 10 teams, when turnovers cost them a big lead against Florida State.  We believe the Rebels can play a mistake-free game this week and still lose by up to three touchdowns.  If a rebuilding reloading Tide team can go into Oxford and win big, we could be looking at another dynasty in Tuscaloosa like the Crimson fans saw in the early 1960’s and most of the 1970’s.

7:00 PM

ESPN: Texas A&M at Auburn

This one can be called the hot seat avoidance game.  The losing coach is going to begin to be in a bit of trouble.  How do we rate Auburn’s close loss to Clemson at Jordan-Hare Stadium, after Troy went to CU and lost by the same amount of points?  Auburn handled Arkansas State with ease, but ASU lost at home to Toledo in week one.  This becomes a put up or shut up game for War Eagle Nation.

Texas A&M has a quality win over UCLA, plus a no extra knowledge learned win over a very weak Prairie View team.  This is the Aggies’ first road game, and it comes in a tough place to win, but they won by a field goal the last time they came here.  We expect a hard-fought, close game.

 

ESPN2: Mississippi State at LSU

The loser will be 0-1 in the SEC and 1-2 overall, and they can look forward to hoping for an Outback Bowl bid at the max.  If the winner has maroon jerseys, then there will be less smiles in the LSU coaching office come Sunday Morning.  Les Miles is on the hottest of hot seats at the present time, and a home loss to a team that lost to South Alabama might be enough to make his dismissal inevitable.

Then, there is the health of star back Leonard Fournette, who missed the Jacksonville State game Saturday night.  Fournette is expected back in practice tomorrow, but he still suffers from the effects of the ankle injury.  And, there is the little matter of who will start at quarterback for the Tigers.  Former Purdue starter Danny Etling started 6 of 8 for 100 yards after replacing ineffective Brandon Harris in the second quarter.  However, he was 0 of 6 in the second half.

 

ESPN3: Navy at Tulane

How in the world could we select this game as one that could be a must watch affair?  Okay, first we did say this was a week for football fanatics, so give us a tad bit of slack here.  This actually should be a very interesting and fun game to watch, so consider giving it a few minutes time early in the evening.

Tulane’s first-year coach Willie Fritz came from Georgia Southern.  This Green Wave squad was not expected to do much in year one, as Fritz began the process of turning a former Pro-style offense into his unique form of multiple option offense, similar but different from the Navy/Georgia Tech style of spread option or inverted wishbone.  In week one, TU went to Wake Forest and held their own in a defensive struggle.  The Green Wave almost pulled off the upset, and after Wake knocked off Duke last week, this loss in Winston-Salem looks better than it did on opening night.  TU then handled Southern with ease, this time doing it with a breakout true freshman quarterback in Johnathan Brantley, who ran the option like a seasoned veteran.

Besides having two option teams going at each other, this is an American Athletic Conference game and an intra-division one to boot.  It should be a fun retro match that resembles the Oklahoma-Texas games of the early 1970s.

 

7:30 PM

NBC: Michigan State at Notre Dame

Neither team has looked as good as expected to this point, although Michigan State has only played one game, and the Spartans have had an extra week to prepare.  You know the old adage, that a team improves the most between its first and second game, and having two weeks to improve should make Sparty a live road ‘dog.

If you are around 60 years of age or older, you know how great this rivalry has been.  You saw the 1966 game that ended in a 10-10 tie, where both teams finished the season at 9-0-1.  Expect the score to pass 20 total points sometime in the second quarter.

Fox Sports: Ohio State at Oklahoma

Now this is how top teams should schedule!  If there were automatic NCAA Playoff bids to each of the Power 5 Conference Champions with three at-large bids to be awarded, then you would see more games like this instead of Big U vs. Northwest Southeastern Tech.

An Oklahoma loss means the Sooners can only expect a Sugar Bowl bid if they win the Big 12 Conference.  An Ohio State win in Norman could be enough to move the Buckeyes up to Number One in the nation, even if Alabama wins at Ole Miss.  Ohio State has started its first two games slowly, and a repeat at Memorial Stadium could be impossible to rally to victory if they get down by double-digits.

The key in this one is how much Oklahoma’s pass defense has improved since week one.  If J. T. Barrett can exploit the OU secondary for a deep pass for a touchdown, the Buckeyes’ running game might be able to get untracked and put up 250 yards on the Sooners.

We expect a game with more than 70 points scored, and wouldn’t this be an excellent night for a handful of overtimes?

8:00 PM

ABC: USC at Stanford

USC faces two separate extra troubles this week.  First, the home Cardinal had an extra week to prepare after besting a decent Kansas State team in week one.  Second, Stanford knows what Alabama did to the Trojans on a neutral field.  They know that to be given serious credibility, they cannot beat USC by a field goal or touchdown and get it.  They have to win this one by double digits to get any respect.

USC is not chopped liver.  The Trojans have played in the Rose Bowl in a season in which the national champ embarrassed them.  Look back at 1966, when USC lost to Notre Dame 51-0, yet made it to the Rose Bowl.

If truth be told, the Trojans are not 46 points weaker than Alabama.  If they played again, they might only lose by 24-28 points.  Stanford better be on guard, because the Trojans seek the same respect that Stanford believes they must earn.  Expect a good game on the Farm Saturday night.

10:30 PM

ESPN: Texas at California

This one is all about the Longhorns venturing out of the Lone Star State.  Cal is rebuilding and will be lucky to win five games this year, while Texas is trying to return to greatness.  The Longhorns have holes in their defense, and Cal has an offense capable of scoring a lot of points.  The key is how well the Texas offense will fare on foreign soil, even against a very porous defense.  If you wake up Sunday morning and see that Coach Charlie Strong’s team hung half a hundred on the Bears, then UT could easily be 4-0 when the Red River Shootout takes place in Dallas.  A win there, and it would be quite possible to see a path to 12-0 for the ‘Horns.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	131.9	124.3	131.9	129.4
2	Tennessee	124.8	120.1	124.8	123.2
3	LSU	124.6	118.7	123.7	122.3
4	Oklahoma	122.7	119.5	122.5	121.6
5	Louisville	123.4	117.2	123.6	121.4
6	Michigan	121.6	119.7	122.2	121.2
7	Ohio St.	120.1	119.9	121.7	120.6
8	Florida St.	122.9	115.6	121.8	120.1
9	Clemson	121.9	113.6	120.4	118.6
10	Washington	121.1	113.3	121.2	118.5
11	Stanford	120.5	113.1	119.4	117.7
12	Oklahoma St.	114.9	116.4	114.7	115.3
13	Auburn	115.7	113.9	115.8	115.1
14	North Carolina	117.1	110.4	116.8	114.8
15	Iowa	115.9	112.8	115.6	114.8
16	Notre Dame	116.4	112.4	115.3	114.7
17	Texas	113.7	116.7	113.7	114.7
18	Miami	117.5	109.5	116.8	114.6
19	Pittsburgh	116.3	111.3	115.4	114.3
20	Houston	113.9	111.8	115.9	113.9
21	Florida	112.9	116.6	111.1	113.5
22	Wisconsin	113.9	111.5	114.7	113.4
23	Mississippi St.	114.1	111.6	113.3	113.0
24	USC	115.2	111.0	112.5	112.9
25	TCU	111.7	113.6	111.5	112.3
26	Oregon	112.8	111.7	111.8	112.1
27	Texas A&M	112.4	111.7	112.2	112.1
28	Georgia	111.3	111.4	111.2	111.3
29	Michigan St.	111.9	111.2	109.9	111.0
30	Virginia Tech	111.0	110.6	111.3	111.0
31	Arkansas	113.1	108.2	110.4	110.6
32	UCLA	110.9	110.5	110.4	110.6
33	Baylor	110.3	110.0	111.4	110.6
34	Ole Miss	113.1	106.7	111.7	110.5
35	Nebraska	111.5	107.9	111.8	110.4
36	South Florida	110.1	107.6	111.5	109.7
37	Arizona St.	109.3	109.6	108.3	109.1
38	Boise St.	107.7	109.1	110.0	108.9
39	Colorado	110.3	105.6	110.8	108.9
40	BYU	110.8	103.5	110.3	108.2
41	Utah	111.0	104.9	108.6	108.2
42	Penn St.	107.6	109.5	106.0	107.7
43	Georgia Tech	108.2	104.5	107.6	106.8
44	West Virginia	107.0	106.4	106.6	106.7
45	North Carolina St.	106.7	104.2	106.0	105.6
46	Washington St.	106.5	103.4	106.3	105.4
47	San Diego St.	105.2	101.9	107.6	104.9
48	Kansas St.	103.9	107.2	103.5	104.9
49	Texas Tech	105.8	103.4	103.6	104.3
50	Western Michigan	104.2	102.4	106.1	104.2
51	Minnesota	104.9	102.9	104.6	104.1
52	Vanderbilt	105.8	101.5	104.3	103.9
53	Northwestern	106.2	100.7	104.6	103.8
54	Boston College	104.3	103.3	103.8	103.8
55	Cincinnati	103.1	103.9	104.0	103.7
56	Central Michigan	102.2	105.0	103.4	103.5
57	Missouri	103.8	103.0	103.6	103.5
58	Arizona	104.6	102.2	103.6	103.5
59	Indiana	101.6	106.1	101.2	103.0
60	Maryland	102.4	106.0	100.2	102.9
61	Toledo	103.0	101.4	103.9	102.8
62	Air Force	100.6	101.0	101.1	100.9
63	Syracuse	102.9	99.0	100.5	100.8
64	Wake Forest	101.7	99.4	100.8	100.7
65	South Carolina	101.1	100.0	100.6	100.6
66	Tulsa	99.5	101.8	100.2	100.5
67	Appalachian St.	99.8	99.2	102.5	100.5
68	Western Kentucky	101.4	96.6	102.8	100.3
69	Memphis	102.3	97.4	100.4	100.1
70	Temple	99.5	99.1	100.2	99.6
71	Virginia	100.7	97.6	100.0	99.4
72	California	103.8	93.9	100.6	99.4
73	Duke	99.2	100.3	97.5	99.0
74	Navy	99.0	98.7	98.5	98.8
75	Illinois	99.8	96.3	98.7	98.3
76	Rutgers	98.2	95.2	96.3	96.6
77	Connecticut	97.2	95.1	97.4	96.6
78	Purdue	97.6	95.2	96.6	96.5
79	Oregon St.	98.3	93.5	95.7	95.8
80	East Carolina	94.9	97.1	95.3	95.8
81	Kentucky	95.4	97.7	93.7	95.6
82	Southern Mississippi	95.2	94.5	96.2	95.3
83	Marshall	93.2	97.6	95.0	95.3
84	Northern Illinois	94.0	95.6	94.7	94.8
85	Georgia Southern	93.8	93.5	96.3	94.6
86	Iowa St.	95.2	94.6	93.8	94.5
87	Utah St.	93.3	96.3	92.6	94.1
88	New Mexico	92.0	95.5	93.1	93.6
89	Middle Tennessee	92.2	94.1	92.5	92.9
90	Army	88.7	96.9	92.0	92.5
91	Nevada	91.1	94.1	92.1	92.5
92	Ohio	89.2	97.8	90.2	92.4
93	SMU	92.5	91.7	91.8	92.0
94	UNLV	90.5	94.8	90.6	92.0
95	Bowling Green	92.0	90.2	91.6	91.3
96	Arkansas St.	89.6	91.4	91.4	90.8
97	Louisiana Tech	89.5	91.9	90.7	90.7
98	San Jose St.	89.6	90.0	90.1	89.9
99	Troy	86.9	92.5	88.8	89.4
100	Kansas	86.4	94.7	83.9	88.4
101	Central Florida	87.2	89.6	87.2	88.0
102	Old Dominion	85.6	88.8	86.0	86.8
103	Colorado St.	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
104	Florida Atlantic	85.0	88.1	86.9	86.7
105	Tulane	85.3	88.6	85.5	86.5
106	Ball St.	85.5	87.5	86.4	86.5
107	Akron	83.2	89.6	84.6	85.8
108	Rice	81.9	90.1	81.9	84.6
109	Kent St.	83.9	85.6	84.1	84.6
110	Wyoming	83.7	83.4	83.9	83.7
111	Miami (O)	83.0	84.2	83.9	83.7
112	South Alabama	80.5	87.9	81.9	83.4
113	Florida International	80.6	87.4	81.4	83.1
114	Fresno St.	81.6	85.9	81.3	82.9
115	Massachusetts	79.1	87.2	80.5	82.3
116	Buffalo	78.3	87.6	79.7	81.9
117	UTSA	78.3	86.5	80.6	81.8
118	Georgia St.	78.7	84.1	80.2	81.0
119	Eastern Michigan	78.2	83.4	79.1	80.2
120	Idaho	77.6	83.7	79.0	80.1
121	UL-Lafayette	75.3	84.1	77.2	78.9
122	UTEP	76.3	80.7	77.8	78.3
123	New Mexico St.	74.9	77.8	76.1	76.3
124	Hawaii	76.8	75.6	75.7	76.0
125	North Texas	74.8	77.2	74.8	75.6
126	Charlotte	72.2	79.4	73.3	75.0
127	Texas St.	72.1	73.2	73.3	72.9
128	UL-Monroe	67.6	73.0	68.0	69.5

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	110.1	107.6	111.5	109.7
Cincinnati	103.1	103.9	104.0	103.7
Temple	99.5	99.1	100.2	99.6
Connecticut	97.2	95.1	97.4	96.6
East Carolina	94.9	97.1	95.3	95.8
Central Florida	87.2	89.6	87.2	88.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	113.9	111.8	115.9	113.9
Tulsa	99.5	101.8	100.2	100.5
Memphis	102.3	97.4	100.4	100.1
Navy	99.0	98.7	98.5	98.8
SMU	92.5	91.7	91.8	92.0
Tulane	85.3	88.6	85.5	86.5
AAC Averages	98.7	98.6	99.0	98.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	123.4	117.2	123.6	121.4
Florida St.	122.9	115.6	121.8	120.1
Clemson	121.9	113.6	120.4	118.6
North Carolina St.	106.7	104.2	106.0	105.6
Boston College	104.3	103.3	103.8	103.8
Syracuse	102.9	99.0	100.5	100.8
Wake Forest	101.7	99.4	100.8	100.7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	117.1	110.4	116.8	114.8
Miami	117.5	109.5	116.8	114.6
Pittsburgh	116.3	111.3	115.4	114.3
Virginia Tech	111.0	110.6	111.3	111.0
Georgia Tech	108.2	104.5	107.6	106.8
Virginia	100.7	97.6	100.0	99.4
Duke	99.2	100.3	97.5	99.0
ACC Averages	111.0	106.9	110.2	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	122.7	119.5	122.5	121.6
Oklahoma St.	114.9	116.4	114.7	115.3
Texas	113.7	116.7	113.7	114.7
TCU	111.7	113.6	111.5	112.3
Baylor	110.3	110.0	111.4	110.6
West Virginia	107.0	106.4	106.6	106.7
Kansas St.	103.9	107.2	103.5	104.9
Texas Tech	105.8	103.4	103.6	104.3
Iowa St.	95.2	94.6	93.8	94.5
Kansas	86.4	94.7	83.9	88.4
Big 12 Averages	107.2	108.3	106.5	107.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	121.6	119.7	122.2	121.2
Ohio St.	120.1	119.9	121.7	120.6
Michigan St.	111.9	111.2	109.9	111.0
Penn St.	107.6	109.5	106.0	107.7
Indiana	101.6	106.1	101.2	103.0
Maryland	102.4	106.0	100.2	102.9
Rutgers	98.2	95.2	96.3	96.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	115.9	112.8	115.6	114.8
Wisconsin	113.9	111.5	114.7	113.4
Nebraska	111.5	107.9	111.8	110.4
Minnesota	104.9	102.9	104.6	104.1
Northwestern	106.2	100.7	104.6	103.8
Illinois	99.8	96.3	98.7	98.3
Purdue	97.6	95.2	96.6	96.5
Big Ten Averages	108.1	106.8	107.4	107.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	101.4	96.6	102.8	100.3
Marshall	93.2	97.6	95.0	95.3
Middle Tennessee	92.2	94.1	92.5	92.9
Old Dominion	85.6	88.8	86.0	86.8
Florida Atlantic	85.0	88.1	86.9	86.7
Florida International	80.6	87.4	81.4	83.1
Charlotte	72.2	79.4	73.3	75.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Mississippi	95.2	94.5	96.2	95.3
Louisiana Tech	89.5	91.9	90.7	90.7
Rice	81.9	90.1	81.9	84.6
UTSA	78.3	86.5	80.6	81.8
UTEP	76.3	80.7	77.8	78.3
North Texas	74.8	77.2	74.8	75.6
CUSA Averages	85.1	88.7	86.2	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	116.4	112.4	115.3	114.7
BYU	110.8	103.5	110.3	108.2
Army	88.7	96.9	92.0	92.5
Massachusetts	79.1	87.2	80.5	82.3
Independents Averages	98.8	100.0	99.5	99.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	89.2	97.8	90.2	92.4
Bowling Green	92.0	90.2	91.6	91.3
Akron	83.2	89.6	84.6	85.8
Kent St.	83.9	85.6	84.1	84.6
Miami (O)	83.0	84.2	83.9	83.7
Buffalo	78.3	87.6	79.7	81.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	104.2	102.4	106.1	104.2
Central Michigan	102.2	105.0	103.4	103.5
Toledo	103.0	101.4	103.9	102.8
Northern Illinois	94.0	95.6	94.7	94.8
Ball St.	85.5	87.5	86.4	86.5
Eastern Michigan	78.2	83.4	79.1	80.2
MAC Averages	89.7	92.5	90.6	91.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	107.7	109.1	110.0	108.9
Air Force	100.6	101.0	101.1	100.9
Utah St.	93.3	96.3	92.6	94.1
New Mexico	92.0	95.5	93.1	93.6
Colorado St.	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
Wyoming	83.7	83.4	83.9	83.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	105.2	101.9	107.6	104.9
Nevada	91.1	94.1	92.1	92.5
UNLV	90.5	94.8	90.6	92.0
San Jose St.	89.6	90.0	90.1	89.9
Fresno St.	81.6	85.9	81.3	82.9
Hawaii	76.8	75.6	75.7	76.0
MWC Averages	91.5	93.0	92.0	92.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	121.1	113.3	121.2	118.5
Stanford	120.5	113.1	119.4	117.7
Oregon	112.8	111.7	111.8	112.1
Washington St.	106.5	103.4	106.3	105.4
California	103.8	93.9	100.6	99.4
Oregon St.	98.3	93.5	95.7	95.8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	115.2	111.0	112.5	112.9
UCLA	110.9	110.5	110.4	110.6
Arizona St.	109.3	109.6	108.3	109.1
Colorado	110.3	105.6	110.8	108.9
Utah	111.0	104.9	108.6	108.2
Arizona	104.6	102.2	103.6	103.5
Pac-12 Averages	110.4	106.1	109.1	108.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	124.8	120.1	124.8	123.2
Florida	112.9	116.6	111.1	113.5
Georgia	111.3	111.4	111.2	111.3
Vanderbilt	105.8	101.5	104.3	103.9
Missouri	103.8	103.0	103.6	103.5
South Carolina	101.1	100.0	100.6	100.6
Kentucky	95.4	97.7	93.7	95.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.9	124.3	131.9	129.4
LSU	124.6	118.7	123.7	122.3
Auburn	115.7	113.9	115.8	115.1
Mississippi St.	114.1	111.6	113.3	113.0
Texas A&M	112.4	111.7	112.2	112.1
Arkansas	113.1	108.2	110.4	110.6
Ole Miss	113.1	106.7	111.7	110.5
SEC Averages	112.9	110.4	112.0	111.8
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	99.8	99.2	102.5	100.5
Georgia Southern	93.8	93.5	96.3	94.6
Arkansas St.	89.6	91.4	91.4	90.8
Troy	86.9	92.5	88.8	89.4
South Alabama	80.5	87.9	81.9	83.4
Georgia St.	78.7	84.1	80.2	81.0
Idaho	77.6	83.7	79.0	80.1
UL-Lafayette	75.3	84.1	77.2	78.9
New Mexico St.	74.9	77.8	76.1	76.3
Texas St.	72.1	73.2	73.3	72.9
UL-Monroe	67.6	73.0	68.0	69.5
Sun Belt Averages	81.5	85.5	83.2	83.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.9	110.4	112.0	111.8
2	ACC	111.0	106.9	110.2	109.4
3	Pac-12	110.4	106.1	109.1	108.5
4	Big Ten	108.1	106.8	107.4	107.4
5	Big 12	107.2	108.3	106.5	107.3
6	Independents	98.8	100.0	99.5	99.4
7	AAC	98.7	98.6	99.0	98.8
8	MWC	91.5	93.0	92.0	92.2
9	MAC	89.7	92.5	90.6	91.0
10	CUSA	85.1	88.7	86.2	86.7
11	Sun Belt	81.5	85.5	83.2	83.4

 

 

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Florida St.
4	Clemson
5	Tennessee
6	Michigan
7	Wisconsin
8	Washington
9	Houston
10	Stanford
11	Arkansas
12	Louisville
13	Texas A&M
14	Oklahoma
15	Iowa
16	Texas
17	Baylor
18	LSU
19	Utah
20	Georgia
21	Florida
22	Michigan St.
23	Ole Miss
24	Oregon
25	Nebraska
26	Notre Dame
27	Pittsburgh
28	Miami (Fla.)
29	Arizona St.
30	North Carolina
31	USC
32	Boise St.
33	West Virginia
34	TCU
35	Auburn
36	San Diego St.
37	UCLA
38	Toledo
39	Western Michigan
40	Navy
41	BYU
42	South Florida
43	Colorado
44	Georgia Tech
45	Western Kentucky
46	Oklahoma St.
47	Appalachian St.
48	Georgia Southern
49	Minnesota
50	Cincinnati
51	Mississippi St.
52	Virginia Tech
53	California
54	Penn St.
55	Texas Tech
56	Central Michigan
57	Indiana
58	East Carolina
59	Southern Miss.
60	Memphis
61	Wake Forest
62	Marshall
63	Air Force
64	North Carolina St.
65	Maryland
66	Army
67	Missouri
68	Kansas St.
69	South Carolina
70	Tulsa
71	Washington St.
72	Arizona
73	Louisiana Tech
74	Temple
75	Duke
76	Northwestern
77	Vanderbilt
78	Boston College
79	Illinois
80	South Alabama
81	Bowling Green
82	Syracuse
83	Utah St.
84	Akron
85	Ohio
86	Rutgers
87	Colorado St.
88	Arkansas St.
89	Troy
90	Connecticut
91	MTSU
92	Kentucky
93	Texas St.
94	Purdue
95	SMU
96	Nevada
97	San Jose St.
98	UTEP
99	Oregon St.
100	Wyoming
101	Idaho
102	Virginia
103	Ball St.
104	Iowa St.
105	Central Florida
106	Northern Illinois
107	Fresno St.
108	New Mexico
109	Florida Atlantic
110	UNLV
111	UL-Lafayette
112	Tulane
113	New Mexico St.
114	Kansas
115	Old Dominion
116	Rice
117	Georgia St.
118	Massachusetts
119	UTSA
120	Charlotte
121	Hawaii
122	UL-Monroe
123	Florida Int’l.
124	North Texas
125	Buffalo
126	Eastern Michigan
127	Miami (O)
128	Kent St.

 

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, September 15
Cincinnati	Houston	-7.8	-4.9	-8.9
Friday, September 16
Rice	Baylor	-26.4	-17.9	-27.5
Utah St.	Arkansas St.	7.2	8.4	4.7
UTSA	Arizona St.	-28.5	-20.6	-25.2
Saturday, September 17
Appalachian St.	Miami (Fla.)	-14.7	-7.3	-11.3
Louisville	Florida St.	3.5	4.6	4.8
Penn St.	Temple	10.1	12.4	7.8
Rutgers	New Mexico	9.2	2.7	5.2
Tennessee	Ohio	38.6	25.3	37.6
Memphis	Kansas	18.9	5.7	19.5
TCU	Iowa St.	19.5	22.0	20.7
Wisconsin	Georgia St.	38.2	30.4	37.5
Bowling Green	Middle Tennessee	2.3	-1.4	1.6
Marshall	Akron	13.0	11.0	13.4
Georgia Tech	Vanderbilt	5.4	6.0	6.3
Connecticut	Virginia	-0.5	0.5	0.4
Washington St.	Idaho	31.4	22.2	29.8
Kansas St.	Florida Atlantic	21.9	22.1	19.6
Central Michigan	UNLV	14.7	13.2	15.8
Toledo	Fresno St.	24.4	18.5	25.6
Massachusetts	Florida Int’l.	1.0	2.3	1.6
Miami (O)	Western Kentucky	-16.4	-10.4	-16.9
Michigan	Colorado	14.3	17.1	14.4
Syracuse	South Florida	-4.2	-5.6	-8.0
Virginia Tech	Boston College	9.7	10.3	10.5
Nebraska	Oregon	1.7	-0.8	3.0
Northern Illinois	San Diego St.	-8.2	-3.0	-9.9
Oklahoma St.	Pittsburgh	1.6	8.1	2.3
Ole Miss	Alabama	-15.8	-14.6	-17.2
Kentucky	New Mexico St.	23.5	22.9	20.6
South Carolina	East Carolina	8.7	5.4	7.8
Illinois	Western Michigan	-1.4	-3.1	-4.4
Charlotte	Eastern Michigan	-4.0	-2.0	-3.8
North Carolina St.	Old Dominion	23.6	17.9	22.5
Georgia Southern	UL-Monroe	28.7	23.0	30.8
Auburn	Texas A&M	6.3	5.2	6.6
LSU	Mississippi St.	13.5	10.1	13.4
Southern Miss.	Troy	10.8	4.5	9.9
Texas Tech	Louisiana Tech	19.3	14.5	15.9
UTEP	Army	-9.4	-13.2	-11.2
Central Florida	Maryland	-12.2	-13.4	-10.0
Tulane	Navy	-11.2	-7.6	-10.5
UL-Lafayette	South Alabama	-3.2	-1.8	-2.7
Florida	North Texas	41.1	42.4	39.3
Notre Dame	Michigan St.	7.5	4.2	8.4
Arkansas	Texas St.	44.0	38.0	40.1
Missouri	Georgia	-4.5	-5.4	-4.6
Oklahoma	Ohio St.	5.6	2.6	3.8
Northwestern	Duke	9.5	2.9	9.6
Stanford	USC	8.3	5.1	9.9
Nevada	Buffalo	16.3	10.0	15.9
BYU	UCLA	2.9	-4.0	2.9
California	Texas	-6.9	-19.8	-10.1
San Jose St.	Utah	-18.9	-12.4	-16.0
Arizona	Hawaii	31.3	30.1	31.4

 

FBS versus FCS Teams–PiRate Estimated Spread

FBS vs. FCS	Week 3
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Clemson	South Carolina St.	47
Iowa	North Dakota St.	19
Tulsa	N. C. A&T	25
Ball St.	Eastern Kentucky	15
Kent St.	Monmouth	11
North Carolina	James Madison	26
Colorado St.	Northern Colorado	21
Wyoming	UC-Davis	11
Oregon St.	Idaho St.	25
Wake Forest	Delaware	23
SMU	Liberty	11
Washington	Portland St.	42