The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 15, 2019

2019 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

There was a time when the Pac-12 Conference, or one of its predecessor leagues like the Pac-10, Pac-8, Athletic Association of Western Universities, or Pacific Coast Conference was the premier football conference in America.  Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, California, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State have all been elite programs at some point in history.

In recent years, the league has failed to produce a dominant team like the 1954 UCLA Bruins, the 1972 USC Trojans or the 1991 Washington Huskies.  Oregon and Washington have fielded really good teams in this decade, but no Pac-12 team has finished number one since USC won in 2004 with Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Matt Leinart starred at the LA Coliseum.

While the Pac-12 champion has been a touchdown to 10 points weaker than the SEC Champion in the last decade, the bottom teams in the league have been better than other conferences’ bottom teams.  Since moving from eight to nine conference games in 2006, in 10 of the 12 years, at least one team and in many cases two teams have come up one win short of bowl eligibility.  Only Oregon in 2010 has been able to go 9-0 in the league and win the Pac-12 Championship Game as well.

Will this be the year that one team emerges from the pack to earn the league’s first playoff spot since Washington in 2016?  The odds say it won’t happen this year.  The league is too balanced, and there are no dominant teams.  It also doesn’t help that the two leading contenders for the conference championship must face off in an interdivisional game, and chances are high the two teams could split those games.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Pac-12 Media Poll
 

 

North Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Oregon 17 190
2 Washington 17 189
3 Stanford 0 129
4 Washington St. 1 108
5 California 0 81
6 Oregon St. 0 38
 

 

South Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Utah 33 206
2 USC 2 167
3T Arizona St. 0 118
3T UCLA 0 118
5 Arizona 0 85
6 Colorado 0 46
 

 

Championship Game Winner Overall Votes
Utah 12
Oregon 11
Washington 9
USC 2
Washington St. 1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Pac-12
 

 

North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 113.6 113.5 114.9 114.0
Washington 112.5 111.9 113.6 112.7
Washington St. 111.8 110.7 112.0 111.5
Stanford 108.5 107.5 108.6 108.2
California 106.8 107.0 108.1 107.3
Oregon St. 95.1 96.2 93.9 95.1
 

 

South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Utah 116.4 114.7 116.6 115.9
Arizona St. 107.7 106.6 108.3 107.6
U C L A 107.6 106.9 106.8 107.1
U S C 104.0 105.2 104.4 104.6
Arizona 101.7 102.0 102.2 102.0
Colorado 99.8 99.0 99.9 99.5
 

 

Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.4 107.1

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
 

North Division

Pos Team Conference Overall
1 Washington 8-1 11-2
2 Oregon 7-2 9-3
3 Stanford 6-3 7-5
4 Washington St. 5-4 8-4
5 California 3-6 5-7
6 Oregon St. 0-9 1-11
 

 

South Division

Pos Team Conference Overall
1 Utah 7-2 11-2*
2 UCLA 5-4 6-6
3 Arizona St. 4-5 6-6
4 USC 4-5 5-7
5 Arizona 3-6 5-7
6 Colorado 1-8 3-9
*  

Utah picked to win Pac-12 Championship Game

 

As you can see, if our predictions are correct, three Pac-12 teams will miss bowl eligibility by one game, most likely because rather than playing an easy Group of 5 or FCS opponent, they will be playing a ninth conference game.

 

Bowl Predictions Team
Playoffs Not This Year
Rose Utah
Cotton Washington
Alamo Oregon
Holiday Washington St.
Redbox Stanford
Sun Arizona St.
Vegas UCLA
Cheez-it (At-large team needed)

 

Coaches That Could Move Up To Major Programs

None, but Stanford’s David Shaw has been rumored for years to be in the mix for a future NFL head coaching position.

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Clay Helton, USC

Helton begins the year with the hottest seat in college football.  He better win the BYU game in Provo, or who knows?  He could be met with his pink slip on the airport tarmac.  The Trojans’ schedule is a nightmare for a coach on the hot seat.  As if playing nine tough conference games isn’t enough, USC’s out-of-conference slate includes Fresno State, BYU, and Notre Dame.  If the Trojans go 2-1 in these games and then go 7-2 in the Pac-12 to win the South Division flag, Helton might keep his job.  Anything less, and Athletics Director Lynn Swann will have to make a move, assuming he still has his job.  Just remember, it only takes Urban Meyer one year to feel healthy enough to coach again.  There are also excellent options in Chris Peterson, Matt Campbell, Dino Babers, and even a current NFL coach.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Oregon

J. T. Daniels, USC

K.J. Costello, Stanford

Khalil Tate, Arizona

Keep eyes on Washington’s Jacob Eason and Washington State’s Gage Gebrud.

 

Top Offense

Oregon

Utah

Washington

 

Top Defense

California

Utah

Oregon

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Big 12 Conference–Oklahoma loses Heisman Trophy quarterback Kyler Murray and replaces him with former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.  Will Hurts make a run at the hardware competing against his former teammate?

Can Texas build upon their progress made last year, or will Iowa State or Baylor emerge as the principle rival to the Sooners this year?

 

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March 28, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 28, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Gonzaga

123.1

0.0

Florida St.

115.7

7.4

Tennessee

117.8

0.0

Purdue

117.6

0.2

Michigan

119.1

0.0

Texas Tech

118.4

0.7

Virginia

120.6

0.0

Oregon

111.2

9.4

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team

Team

TIME (EDT)

TV

LOCATION

Florida St.

Gonzaga

7:09 PM

CBS

Anaheim

Purdue

Tennessee

7:29 PM

TBS

Louisville

Texas Tech

Michigan

9:39 PM

CBS

Anaheim

Oregon

Virginia

9:59 PM

TBS

Louisville

 

March 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Tennessee

117.9

0.0

Iowa

111.4

6.5

North Carolina

121.3

0.0

Washington

109.7

11.6

Duke

122.9

0.0

Central Florida

110.0

12.9

Texas Tech

118.0

0.0

Buffalo

115.2

2.8

Virginia Tech

115.5

0.0

Liberty

107.3

8.2

Virginia

120.8

0.0

Oklahoma

111.4

9.4

Houston

115.3

0.0

Ohio St.

110.2

5.1

Oregon

110.8

0.0

UC Irvine

106.6

4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time

Game

Network

Site

12:10 PM

Tennessee vs. Iowa

CBS

Columbus

2:40 PM

North Carolina vs. Washington

CBS

Columbus

5:15 PM

Duke vs. Central Florida

CBS

Columbia

6:10 PM

Texas Tech vs. Buffalo

TNT

Tulsa

7:10 PM

Virginia Tech vs. Liberty

TBS

San Jose

7:45 PM

Virginia vs. Oklahoma

TruTV

Columbia

8:40 PM

Houston vs. Ohio St.

TNT

Tulsa

9:40 PM

Oregon vs. UC-Irvine

TBS

San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Saturday, March 16, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:29 am

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Vermont

105.6

3.0

Maryland Baltimore Co.

96.2

12.4

Memphis

107.1

3.0

Houston

115.4

-5.3

Cincinnati

110.3

0.0

Wichita St.

103.9

6.4

Rhode Island

102.0

0.0

St. Bonaventure

102.3

-0.3

Davidson

106.3

0.0

Saint Louis

102.9

3.4

Duke

123.2

0.5

Florida St.

115.0

8.7

Kansas

114.9

1.5

Iowa St.

114.3

2.1

Seton Hall

108.6

0.5

Villanova

113.1

-4.0

Montana

101.6

0.0

Eastern Washington

96.6

5.0

Wisconsin

115.4

0.5

Michigan St.

120.3

-4.4

Minnesota

110.0

0.0

Michigan

118.7

-8.7

UC-Irvine

105.6

0.0

Cal St. Fullerton

99.0

6.6

Old Dominion

103.4

0.0

Western Kentucky

103.3

0.1

Harvard

102.9

0.0

Penn

102.3

0.6

Yale

106.0

2.5

Princeton

99.3

9.2

Buffalo

115.3

0.0

Bowling Green

104.5

10.8

Norfolk St.

94.3

0.0

North Carolina Central

92.3

2.0

San Diego St.

102.7

0.0

Utah St.

108.6

-5.9

Washington

109.5

0.0

Oregon

109.7

-0.2

Abilene Christian

101.1

0.0

New Orleans

94.6

6.5

Florida

111.4

0.0

Auburn

115.0

-3.6

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Tennessee

118.5

-0.5

UT-Arlington

100.8

0.0

Georgia Southern

95.9

4.9

Georgia St.

103.2

0.0

Texas St.

102.8

0.4

Prairie View A&M

96.5

0.0

Texas Southern

97.1

-0.6

New Mexico St.

108.1

0.0

Grand Canyon

105.1

3.0

 

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

At Vermont

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Vermont (26-6)

3

Maryland-Baltimore Co. (21-12)

 

 

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Houston

84

Connecticut

45

Memphis

79

Central Florida

55

Cincinnati

82

SMU

74

Wichita St.

80

Temple

74

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Houston (30-2)

5

Memphis (21-12)

2

Cincinnati (26-6)

6

Wichita St. (19-13)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Rhode Island

75

VCU

70

St. Bonaventure

68

George Mason

57

Davidson

70

Saint Joseph’s

60

Saint Louis

64

Dayton

55

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Rhode Island (18-14)

4

St. Bonaventure (17-15)

2

Davidson (24-8)

6

Saint Louis (21-12)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Florida St.

69

Virginia

59

Duke

74

North Carolina

73

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Florida St. (27-6)

3

Duke (28-5)

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Iowa St.

63

Kansas St.

59

Kansas

88

West Virginia

74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Iowa St. (22-11)

3

Kansas (25-8)

 

 

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Villanova

71

Xavier

67 ot

Seton Hall

81

Marquette

79

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (24-9)

3

Seton Hall (20-12)

 

 

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Montana

78

Weber St.

49

Eastern Washington

77

Southern Utah

61

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (25-8)

3

Eastern Washington (16-17)

 

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Michigan St.

77

Ohio St.

70

Wisconsin

66

Nebraska

62

Minnesota

75

Purdue

73

Michigan

74

Iowa

53

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Michigan St. (26-6)

4

Wisconsin (23-9)

7

Minnesota (21-12)

3

Michigan (27-5)

 

 

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

UC-Irvine

75

Long Beach St.

67

Cal St. Fulerton

64

UC Santa Barbara

58

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (29-5)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (16-16)

 

 

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Old Dominion

61

UAB

59

Western Kentucky

70

Southern Miss.

59

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (25-8)

2

Western Kentucky (20-13)

 

Ivy League (Ivy Madness)

Site: John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT (Yale)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Harvard (17-10)

4

Penn (19-11)

2

Yale (20-7)

3

Princeton (16-11)

 

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Buffalo

85

Central Michigan

81

Bowling Green

71

Northern Illinois

67

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (30-3)

3

Bowling Green (22-11)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

UNC Central

65

North Carolina A&T

63

Norfolk St.

75

Howard

69

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Norfolk St. (21-12)

3

North Carolina Central (17-15)

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

San Diego St.

65

Nevada

56

Utah St.

85

Fresno St.

60

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

4

San Diego St. (21-11)

2

Utah St. (27-6)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Washington

66

Colorado

61

Oregon

79

Arizona St.

75 ot

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (26-7)

6

Oregon (22-12)

 

 

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

New Orleans

79

Sam Houston St.

76

Abilene Christian

69

Southeastern Louisiana

66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

New Orleans (19-12)

2

Abilene Christian (26-6)

 

 

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Florida

76

LSU

73

Auburn

73

South Carolina

64

Kentucky

73

Alabama

55

Tennessee

83

Mississippi St.

76

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Florida (19-14)

5

Auburn (24-9)

2

Kentucky (27-5)

3

Tennessee (28-4)

 

 

Sun Belt Conference

Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Georgia Southern

81

Louisiana Monroe

67

Texas St.

79

South Alabama

67

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

UT Arlington (16-15)

3

Georgia Southern (21-11)

1

Georgia St. (22-9)

4

Texas St. (24-8)

 

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Site: at Higher Seeds

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Prairie View A&M

81

Grambling

71

Texas Southern

80

Alabama St.

66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Prairie View A&M (22-12)

2

Texas Southern (21-12)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

New Mexico St.

79

UT RGV

72

Grand Canyon

78

New Mexico St.

74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (29-4)

3

Grand Canyon (20-12)

 

 

Automatic Bids To Date

Team

Conf

W-L

Liberty

Atlantic Sun

28-6

Gardner-Webb

Big South

23-11

Murray St.

Ohio Valley

27-4

Bradley

Missouri Valley

20-14

Wofford

Southern

29-4

Iona

Metro Atlantic

17-15

Fairleigh-Dickinson

Northeast

20-13

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

26-8

Northeastern

Colonial

23-10

Saint Mary’s

West Coast

22-11

North Dakota St.

Summit

18-15

Colgate

Patriot

24-10

 

The PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Convene

The PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus have gathered (if only electronically) is our bunkers, otherwise known as our man caves and woman caves watching multiple games simultaneously to get better familiar with all the teams still trying to Dance.

Tonight, we will begin putting our opinions together to formulate our final Bracketology selections for Sunday afternoon.  We will publish our initial predicted 68 around 2 PM EDT on Sunday and then a final prediction at the conclusion of the last meaningful conference tournament championship game, if one might affect the seedings.

At the moment, there are games that could wildly swing the bottom of the seed line, affecting who plays in the First Four, and there are a couple of potenial bid-stealers still alive.

Here is our planned schedule for the weekend

Saturday late morning: Bracketology number 1 (Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday morning: Bracketology number 2 (Again, Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday early afternoon: Bracket Gurus Initial Field of 68 Predictions

Sunday late afternoon: Bracket Gurus Final Field of 68 Predictions (if necessary)

Note: The Captain and the Gurus are making their selections trying to predict what the Selection Committee will do and not by using their own opinions of which 68 teams should be in the field.  One of out methods will include trying to predict political biases of the Committee members.  By political, we don’t mean Liberal vs. Conservative.  We mean Power Conference vs. Mid-Major and Low-Major, or in other words, why State U at 18-16 will beat out Tiny Tech at 29-5 that lost in their conference championship game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 15, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, March 15, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:37 am

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Houston

114.9

0.0

Connecticut

105.1

9.8

Memphis

106.7

3.0

Central Florida

110.3

-0.6

Cincinnati

110.3

0.0

SMU

103.1

7.2

Temple

106.8

0.0

Wichita St.

104.7

2.1

Virginia Commonwealth

111.3

0.0

Rhode Island

103.0

8.3

St. Bonaventure

102.6

0.0

George Mason

100.7

1.9

Davidson

106.3

0.0

Saint Joseph’s

99.2

7.1

Dayton

107.9

0.0

Saint Louis

102.8

5.1

Virginia

122.1

0.0

Florida St.

113.4

8.7

North Carolina

121.8

0.0

Duke

123.5

-1.7

Kansas St.

112.9

1.0

Iowa St.

113.6

0.3

Kansas

114.9

2.0

West Virginia

105.7

11.2

Villanova

112

0.0

Xavier

106.0

6.0

Seton Hall

108.6

1.0

Marquette

113.0

-3.4

Montana

101.6

0.0

Weber St.

97.4

4.2

Southern Utah

93.4

0.0

Eastern Washington

95.2

-1.8

Michigan St.

120.9

0.0

Ohio St.

110.5

10.4

Wisconsin

115.4

1.0

Nebraska

111.7

4.7

Purdue

117.5

0.0

Minnesota

109.2

8.3

Michigan

118.3

0.0

Iowa

111.6

6.7

UC-Irvine

105.6

0.0

Long Beach St.

97.1

8.5

UC Santa Barbara

99.8

0.0

Cal St. Fullerton

98.3

1.5

Old Dominion

103.4

0.0

UAB

100.3

3.1

Western Kentucky

103.4

0.0

Southern Miss.

104.0

-0.6

Buffalo

115.3

0.0

Central Michigan

103.2

12.1

Northern Illinois

102.6

0.0

Bowling Green

104.1

-1.5

North Carolina A&T

92.5

0.0

North Carolina Central

92.6

-0.1

Norfolk St.

94.3

0.0

Howard

91.1

3.2

Nevada

113.9

1.0

San Diego St.

103.3

11.6

Utah St.

110.6

0.0

Fresno St.

108.5

2.1

Washington

109.5

0.0

Colorado

107.0

2.5

Arizona St.

107.9

0.0

Oregon

109.7

-1.8

Sam Houston St.

99.7

0.0

New Orleans

94.7

5.0

Abilene Christian

101.1

0.0

Southeastern Louisiana

95.7

5.4

LSU

114.8

0.0

Florida

112.9

1.9

South Carolina

106.9

0.0

Auburn

115.3

-8.4

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Alabama

108.2

9.8

Tennessee

119.0

1.0

Mississippi St.

114.0

6.0

Georgia Southern

104.7

0.0

Louisiana Monroe

102.3

2.4

Texas St.

103.0

0.0

South Alabama

97.4

5.6

Prairie View A&M

96.5

0.0

Grambling

94.1

2.4

Texas Southern

96.6

0.0

Alabama St.

89.0

7.6

New Mexico St.

108.1

0.0

UT Rio Grande Valley

98.7

9.4

Utah Valley

105.1

0.0

Grand Canyon

105.6

-0.5

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

First Round–Thursday, March 14

Connecticut

80

South Florida

73

Memphis

83

Tulane

68

SMU

74

Tulsa

65

Wichita St.

73

East Carolina

57

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Houston (29-2)

9

Connecticut (16-16)

4

Central Florida (23-7)

5/12

Memphis (20-12)

2

Cincinnati (25-6)

10

SMU (15-16)

3

Temple (23-8)

6

Wichita St. (18-13)

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Rhode Island

76

La Salle

57

George Mason

61

George Washington

57

Saint Joseph’s

92

Duquesne

86

Saint Louis

71

Richmond

68

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia Commonwealth (25-6)

8

Rhode Island (17-14)

4

St. Bonaventure (16-15)

5

George Mason (18-14)

2

Davidson (23-8)

10

Saint Joseph’s (14-18)

3

Dayton (21-10)

6

Saint Louis (20-12)

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Virginia

76

North Carolina St.

56

Florida St.

65

Virginia Tech

63 ot

North Carolina

83

Louisville

70

Duke

84

Syracuse

72

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia (29-2)

5

Florida St. (26-6)

2

North Carolina (27-5)

3

Duke (27-5)

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Kansas St.

70

TCU

61

Iowa St.

83

Baylor

66

West Virginia

79

Texas Tech

74

Kansas

65

Texas

57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Kansas St. (25-7)

5

Iowa St. (21-11)

10

West Virginia (14-19)

3

Kansas (24-8)

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Villanova

73

Providence

62

Xavier

63

Creighton

61

Marquette

86

St. John’s

54

Seton Hall

73

Georgetown

57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (23-9)

4

Xavier (17-14)

2

Marquette (24-8)

3

Seton Hall (19-12)

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Montana

79

Sacramento St.

73

Weber St.

81

Portland St.

71

Southern Utah

83

Northern Colorado

63

Eastern Washington

90

Montana St.

84

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (24-8)

4

Weber St. (18-14)

7

Southern Utah (16-15)

3

Eastern Washington (15-17)

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Ohio St.

79

Indiana

75

Nebraska

69

Maryland

61

Minnesota

77

Penn St.

72 ot

Iowa

83

Illinois

62

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Michigan St. (25-6)

8

Ohio St. (19-13)

4

Wisconsin (22-9)

13

Nebraska (18-15)

2

Purdue (23-8)

7

Minnesota (20-12)

3

Michigan (26-5)

6

Iowa (22-10)

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

UC-Irvine

63

Cal St. Riverside

44

Long Beach St.

68

Hawaii

66

Cal St. Fullerton

75

UC Davis

71 ot

UC Santa Barbara

71

Cal St. Northridge

68

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (28-5)

5

Long Beach St. (15-18)

2

UC Santa Barbara (22-9)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (15-16)

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Old Dominion

57

Louisiana Tech

56

UAB

85

UTSA

76

Western Kentucky

67

North Texas

51

Southern Miss.

82

Marshall

73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (24-8)

5

UAB (20-13)

2

Western Kentucky (19-13)

3

Southern Miss. (20-11)

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Buffalo

82

Akron

46

Central Michigan

89

Kent St.

81

Northern Illinois

80

Toledo

76

Bowling Green

99

Ball St.

86

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (29-3)

5

Central Michigan (23-10)

7

Northern Illinois (27-16)

3

Bowling Green (21-11)

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

UNC Central

75

Delaware St.

57

Howard

80

Bethune-Cookman

71

North Carolina A&T

82

Coppin St.

79 ot

Norfolk St.

78

South Carolina St.

73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

North Carolina A&T (19-12)

3

North Carolina Central (16-15)

1

Norfolk St. (20-12)

4

Howard (17-15)

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Nevada

77

Boise St.

69

San Diego St.

63

UNLV

55

Utah St.

91

New Mexico

83

Fresno St.

76

Air Force

50

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1

Nevada (29-3)

4

San Diego St. (20-11)

2

Utah St. (26-6)

3

Fresno St. (22-8)

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Washington

78

USC

75

Colorado

73

Oregon St.

58

Arizona St.

83

UCLA

72

Oregon

66

Utah

54

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (25-7)

5

Colorado (21-11)

2

Arizona St. (22-9)

6

Oregon (21-12)

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

New Orleans

76

Lamar

72

Southeastern Louisiana

79

Central Arkansas

65

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Sam Houston St. (21-10)

4

New Orleans (18-12)

2

Abilene Christian (25-6)

3

Southeastern Louisiana (17-15)

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Florida

66

Arkansas

50

Auburn

81

Missouri

71

Alabama

62

Ole Miss

57

Mississippi St.

80

Texas A&M

54

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

LSU (26-5)

8

Florida (18-14)

4

South Carolina (16-15)

5

Auburn (23-9)

2

Kentucky (26-5)

10

Alabama (18-14)

3

Tennessee (27-4)

6

Mississippi St. (23-9)

Sun Belt Conference

Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Louisiana Monroe

80

Coastal Carolina

50

South Alabama

70

Louisiana

69

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

Georgia Southern (20-11)

7

Louisiana Monroe (18-14)

4

Texas St. (23-8)

8

South Alabama (17-16)

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Site: at Higher Seeds

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 12

Prairie View A&M

86

Alcorn St.

66

Grambling

59

Arkansas Pine Bluff

52

Alabama St.

58

Jackson St.

49

Texas Southern

80

Southern

70

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Prairie View A&M (21-12)

4

Grambling (17-15)

2

Texas Southern (20-12)

6

Alabama St. (12-18)

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

New Mexico St.

86

Chicago St.

49

UT RGV

85

Cal St. Bakersfield

70

Grand Canyon

84

Seattle

75

Utah Valley

70

UM Kansas City

64

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (28-4)

4

UT Rio Grande Valley (19-15)

2

Utah Valley (24-8)

3/6

Grand Canyon (19-12)

 

 

 

 

January 4, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 5-6, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:24 am

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings For Power Conferences & Top 25

Saturday’s Games
Home Team Visitor Spread
Virginia Tech Boston College 16.1
Pittsburgh North Carolina -9.3
Notre Dame Syracuse -0.4
Georgia Tech Wake Forest 6.5
Virginia Florida St. 9.5
Duke Clemson 16.7
Texas Tech Kansas St. 11.1
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 10.6
TCU Baylor 6.7
Iowa St. Kansas 0.3
Texas West Virginia 5.6
Butler Creighton 1.1
Georgetown St. John’s -1.6
Providence Villanova -3.1
Ohio St. Michigan St. -2.4
Rutgers Maryland -3.8
Arizona Utah 9.1
UCLA California 12.0
Arizona St. Colorado 5.3
Oregon Oregon St. 6.3
Washington Washington St. 11.0
Alabama Kentucky -3.9
Tennessee Georgia 13.2
Texas A&M Arkansas 0.6
Florida South Carolina 12.7
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 1.8
Gonzaga Santa Clara 25.8
New Mexico Nevada -12.0

 

Sunday’s Games
Home Team Visitor Spread
Marquette Xavier 7.5
DePaul Seton Hall -2.7
Northwestern Illinois 7.2
Wichita St. Temple -0.9
Michigan Indiana 6.4
Iowa Nebraska -2.2
Houston Memphis 8.6
Louisville Miami (Fla) 4.7
Penn St. Wisconsin -2.6
USC Stanford 5.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 1 to 353

Rk Team PiRate
1 Duke 123.3
2 Gonzaga 119.3
3 Virginia 118.6
4 Michigan St. 118.3
5 North Carolina 117.9
6 Virginia Tech 116.7
7 Kansas 116.3
8 Nevada 115.9
9 Tennessee 115.6
10 Auburn 115.6
11 Michigan 115.6
12 Texas Tech 115.6
13 Nebraska 114.7
14 Kentucky 114.5
15 North Carolina St. 114.5
16 Iowa St. 113.6
17 Purdue 113.5
18 Wisconsin 113.1
19 Florida St. 113.1
20 Ohio St. 112.9
21 Oklahoma 112.8
22 Mississippi St. 112.7
23 Cincinnati 112.7
24 Florida 112.7
25 Villanova 112.2
26 Indiana 112.2
27 Buffalo 111.9
28 TCU 111.8
29 Creighton 111.5
30 Texas 111.1
31 Houston 111.1
32 Maryland 110.9
33 Marquette 110.8
34 Syracuse 110.7
35 Clemson 110.6
36 St. John’s 110.2
37 Louisville 110.0
38 UCF 109.5
39 LSU 109.5
40 Iowa 109.5
41 Oregon 109.4
42 Saint Mary’s 109.4
43 Wofford 109.1
44 Butler 109.1
45 San Francisco 109.0
46 Seton Hall 108.8
47 Northwestern 108.8
48 Mississippi 108.6
49 Kansas St. 108.5
50 West Virginia 108.5
51 Utah St. 108.5
52 Arizona 108.4
53 Miami FL 108.3
54 Lipscomb 108.2
55 Toledo 108.2
56 Arizona St. 108.1
57 Baylor 108.1
58 Penn St. 108.0
59 Minnesota 107.9
60 Fresno St. 107.9
61 Alabama 107.6
62 Washington 107.6
63 Murray St. 107.4
64 Vanderbilt 107.4
65 Arkansas 107.3
66 Temple 107.1
67 VCU 106.9
68 Notre Dame 106.8
69 Providence 106.6
70 Ball St. 106.5
71 UCLA 106.4
72 Dayton 106.3
73 Xavier 106.3
74 Hofstra 106.2
75 Loyola Chicago 106.2
76 Missouri 106.1
77 New Mexico St. 105.9
78 BYU 105.9
79 South Dakota St. 105.9
80 Liberty 105.9
81 Colorado 105.8
82 Yale 105.7
83 SMU 105.7
84 Belmont 105.7
85 Oregon St. 105.6
86 Pittsburgh 105.6
87 USC 105.6
88 Georgetown 105.6
89 East Tennessee St. 105.5
90 Georgia 105.4
91 UNC Greensboro 105.4
92 Old Dominion 105.3
93 Connecticut 105.3
94 Davidson 105.2
95 Western Kentucky 105.2
96 Georgia Tech 105.1
97 Memphis 105.0
98 Texas A&M 104.9
99 Montana 104.8
100 San Diego 104.7
101 Saint Louis 104.7
102 Oklahoma St. 104.7
103 Rutgers 104.6
104 Rhode Island 104.4
105 Georgia St. 104.3
106 UC Irvine 104.3
107 Harvard 104.2
108 Vermont 104.2
109 San Diego St. 104.1
110 Akron 104.1
111 Illinois 104.1
112 Boston College 104.1
113 Furman 104.0
114 Penn 103.8
115 North Texas 103.8
116 DePaul 103.6
117 Grand Canyon 103.6
118 Texas St. 103.6
119 South Carolina 103.5
120 Northeastern 103.5
121 Northern Kentucky 103.5
122 Wichita St. 103.2
123 Georgia Southern 103.1
124 Louisiana Tech 102.8
125 Tulsa 102.8
126 Austin Peay 102.7
127 Boise St. 102.5
128 Marshall 102.5
129 Jacksonville St. 102.5
130 UCSB 102.4
131 Southern Illinois 102.4
132 Stanford 102.4
133 Utah 102.3
134 Radford 102.3
135 Saint Joseph’s 102.2
136 Utah Valley 102.2
137 Brown 102.0
138 Drake 101.9
139 Loyola Marymount 101.8
140 George Mason 101.7
141 Rider 101.5
142 Bucknell 101.5
143 Kent St. 101.5
144 Gardner Webb 101.5
145 Charleston 101.4
146 UMass 101.3
147 Winthrop 101.1
148 Northern Colorado 101.1
149 Wake Forest 101.1
150 UNLV 100.8
151 Lehigh 100.8
152 Holy Cross 100.7
153 Seattle 100.6
154 Weber St. 100.6
155 Richmond 100.5
156 Northern Illinois 100.5
157 Stony Brook 100.5
158 Louisiana 100.5
159 Louisiana Monroe 100.4
160 Samford 100.3
161 Miami OH 100.3
162 St. Bonaventure 100.1
163 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.1
164 Cal St. Fullerton 100.1
165 South Florida 100.1
166 NJIT 100.1
167 Southern Miss 100.1
168 Coastal Carolina 100.0
169 Wright St. 99.9
170 New Mexico 99.9
171 Ohio 99.6
172 Indiana St. 99.6
173 Central Michigan 99.5
174 Green Bay 99.5
175 Abilene Christian 99.4
176 Colgate 99.4
177 Duquesne 99.4
178 Princeton 99.3
179 Valparaiso 99.3
180 Mercer 99.2
181 Washington St. 99.1
182 UAB 99.1
183 Charleston Southern 99.1
184 Pacific 99.0
185 Illinois St. 99.0
186 Evansville 98.8
187 Bowling Green 98.7
188 Missouri St. 98.6
189 Cal St. Bakersfield 98.4
190 Bradley 98.4
191 Troy 98.4
192 American 98.4
193 IUPUI 98.4
194 The Citadel 98.2
195 Omaha 98.2
196 Hartford 98.1
197 Appalachian St. 98.1
198 Pepperdine 98.0
199 Texas Southern 97.9
200 South Dakota 97.9
201 Fordham 97.9
202 Northern Iowa 97.7
203 California Baptist 97.7
204 Western Michigan 97.7
205 Hawaii 97.6
206 North Dakota St. 97.6
207 Wagner 97.6
208 Eastern Michigan 97.6
209 Santa Clara 97.5
210 Iona 97.5
211 Florida International 97.5
212 Stephen F. Austin 97.5
213 William & Mary 97.4
214 Dartmouth 97.4
215 Boston University 97.2
216 Oakland 97.1
217 South Alabama 97.1
218 Lamar 97.1
219 UTSA 97.0
220 North Florida 97.0
221 Illinois Chicago 97.0
222 California 96.9
223 Canisius 96.9
224 Long Beach St. 96.8
225 St. Francis PA 96.8
226 Columbia 96.7
227 Presbyterian 96.6
228 UNC Wilmington 96.5
229 Florida Atlantic 96.5
230 Hampton 96.4
231 Detroit 96.3
232 Idaho St. 96.3
233 Campbell 96.2
234 High Point 96.1
235 Delaware 96.0
236 UMBC 95.9
237 Fairfield 95.9
238 Marist 95.8
239 Colorado St. 95.7
240 UMass Lowell 95.6
241 Florida Gulf Coast 95.5
242 LIU Brooklyn 95.5
243 Little Rock 95.5
244 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.5
245 La Salle 95.5
246 Quinnipiac 95.4
247 UC Davis 95.4
248 UTEP 95.3
249 Towson 95.3
250 Drexel 95.3
251 Sacramento St. 95.2
252 Cornell 95.2
253 UMKC 95.0
254 Eastern Kentucky 95.0
255 Robert Morris 94.9
256 Arkansas St. 94.9
257 Morehead St. 94.8
258 Army 94.8
259 Albany 94.8
260 Sam Houston St. 94.8
261 UT Arlington 94.8
262 Siena 94.8
263 Niagara 94.8
264 UT Rio Grande Valley 94.7
265 Western Illinois 94.6
266 James Madison 94.4
267 Houston Baptist 94.3
268 East Carolina 94.3
269 Milwaukee 94.3
270 Tulane 94.2
271 George Washington 94.2
272 Air Force 94.2
273 Middle Tennessee 94.1
274 Saint Peter’s 94.1
275 Cleveland St. 94.0
276 Norfolk St. 94.0
277 North Carolina Central 94.0
278 Nicholls St. 93.9
279 Grambling St. 93.9
280 Eastern Washington 93.9
281 Longwood 93.8
282 St. Francis NY 93.8
283 Sacred Heart 93.8
284 Chattanooga 93.7
285 Portland St. 93.7
286 Southeast Missouri St. 93.6
287 Wyoming 93.6
288 North Dakota 93.4
289 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 93.3
290 Central Arkansas 93.2
291 Loyola MD 93.2
292 Jacksonville 93.1
293 Montana St. 93.1
294 Prairie View A&M 93.1
295 Eastern Illinois 93.0
296 Oral Roberts 92.8
297 Central Connecticut 92.7
298 Denver 92.7
299 Monmouth 92.6
300 UC Riverside 92.6
301 Tennessee St. 92.5
302 McNeese St. 92.5
303 Howard 92.3
304 Southern Utah 92.3
305 Lafayette 92.2
306 UT Martin 92.2
307 New Orleans 92.2
308 Portland 92.1
309 Rice 91.9
310 Navy 91.9
311 Southeastern Louisiana 91.8
312 Bethune Cookman 91.7
313 Charlotte 91.4
314 North Carolina A&T 91.4
315 Cal Poly 91.3
316 Youngstown St. 91.2
317 Cal St. Northridge 91.2
318 Idaho 90.9
319 Northern Arizona 90.8
320 Western Carolina 90.7
321 Binghamton 90.6
322 Morgan St. 90.4
323 Manhattan 90.3
324 USC Upstate 90.2
325 Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.1
326 Maine 90.1
327 VMI 90.1
328 Elon 90.1
329 Mount St. Mary’s 90.0
330 SIU Edwardsville 90.0
331 Alabama St. 89.9
332 Bryant 89.7
333 Tennessee Tech 89.6
334 North Alabama 89.4
335 San Jose St. 89.3
336 South Carolina St. 88.9
337 New Hampshire 88.6
338 Southern 88.4
339 Jackson St. 88.1
340 Florida A&M 88.1
341 Kennesaw St. 87.1
342 Stetson 87.1
343 Incarnate Word 86.6
344 Alcorn St. 86.4
345 Northwestern St. 85.6
346 UNC Asheville 85.0
347 Maryland Eastern Shore 84.5
348 Coppin St. 84.5
349 Alabama A&M 84.3
350 Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
351 Savannah St. 83.6
352 Chicago St. 82.0
353 Delaware St. 81.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conferences

American Athletic PiRate Rating
Cincinnati 112.7
Houston 111.1
UCF 109.5
Temple 107.1
SMU 105.7
Connecticut 105.3
Memphis 105.0
Wichita St. 103.2
Tulsa 102.8
South Florida 100.1
East Carolina 94.3
Tulane 94.2
American East PiRate Rating
Vermont 104.2
Stony Brook 100.5
Hartford 98.1
UMBC 95.9
UMass Lowell 95.6
Albany 94.8
Binghamton 90.6
Maine 90.1
New Hampshire 88.6
Atlantic 10 PiRate Rating
VCU 106.9
Dayton 106.3
Davidson 105.2
Saint Louis 104.7
Rhode Island 104.4
Saint Joseph’s 102.2
George Mason 101.7
UMass 101.3
Richmond 100.5
St. Bonaventure 100.1
Duquesne 99.4
Fordham 97.9
La Salle 95.5
George Washington 94.2
Atlantic Coast PiRate Rating
Duke 123.3
Virginia 118.6
North Carolina 117.9
Virginia Tech 116.7
North Carolina St. 114.5
Florida St. 113.1
Syracuse 110.7
Clemson 110.6
Louisville 110.0
Miami FL 108.3
Notre Dame 106.8
Pittsburgh 105.6
Georgia Tech 105.1
Boston College 104.1
Wake Forest 101.1
Atlantic Sun PiRate Rating
Lipscomb 108.2
Liberty 105.9
NJIT 100.1
North Florida 97.0
Florida Gulf Coast 95.5
Jacksonville 93.1
North Alabama 89.4
Kennesaw St. 87.1
Stetson 87.1
Big 12 PiRate Rating
Kansas 116.3
Texas Tech 115.6
Iowa St. 113.6
Oklahoma 112.8
TCU 111.8
Texas 111.1
Kansas St. 108.5
West Virginia 108.5
Baylor 108.1
Oklahoma St. 104.7
Big East PiRate Rating
Villanova 112.2
Creighton 111.5
Marquette 110.8
St. John’s 110.2
Butler 109.1
Seton Hall 108.8
Providence 106.6
Xavier 106.3
Georgetown 105.6
DePaul 103.6
Big Sky PiRate Rating
Montana 104.8
Northern Colorado 101.1
Weber St. 100.6
Idaho St. 96.3
Sacramento St. 95.2
Eastern Washington 93.9
Portland St. 93.7
Montana St. 93.1
Southern Utah 92.3
Idaho 90.9
Northern Arizona 90.8
Big South PiRate Rating
Radford 102.3
Gardner Webb 101.5
Winthrop 101.1
Charleston Southern 99.1
Presbyterian 96.6
Hampton 96.4
Campbell 96.2
High Point 96.1
Longwood 93.8
USC Upstate 90.2
UNC Asheville 85.0
Big Ten PiRate Rating
Michigan St. 118.3
Michigan 115.6
Nebraska 114.7
Purdue 113.5
Wisconsin 113.1
Ohio St. 112.9
Indiana 112.2
Maryland 110.9
Iowa 109.5
Northwestern 108.8
Penn St. 108.0
Minnesota 107.9
Rutgers 104.6
Illinois 104.1
Big West PiRate Rating
UC Irvine 104.3
UCSB 102.4
Cal St. Fullerton 100.1
Hawaii 97.6
Long Beach St. 96.8
UC Davis 95.4
UC Riverside 92.6
Cal Poly 91.3
Cal St. Northridge 91.2
Colonial Athletic PiRate Rating
Hofstra 106.2
Northeastern 103.5
Charleston 101.4
William & Mary 97.4
UNC Wilmington 96.5
Delaware 96.0
Towson 95.3
Drexel 95.3
James Madison 94.4
Elon 90.1
Conference USA PiRate Rating
Old Dominion 105.3
Western Kentucky 105.2
North Texas 103.8
Louisiana Tech 102.8
Marshall 102.5
Southern Miss 100.1
UAB 99.1
Florida International 97.5
UTSA 97.0
Florida Atlantic 96.5
UTEP 95.3
Middle Tennessee 94.1
Rice 91.9
Charlotte 91.4
Horizon PiRate Rating
Northern Kentucky 103.5
Wright St. 99.9
Green Bay 99.5
IUPUI 98.4
Oakland 97.1
Illinois Chicago 97.0
Detroit 96.3
Milwaukee 94.3
Cleveland St. 94.0
Youngstown St. 91.2
Ivy PiRate Rating
Yale 105.7
Harvard 104.2
Penn 103.8
Brown 102.0
Princeton 99.3
Dartmouth 97.4
Columbia 96.7
Cornell 95.2
Metro Atlantic PiRate Rating
Rider 101.5
Iona 97.5
Canisius 96.9
Fairfield 95.9
Marist 95.8
Quinnipiac 95.4
Siena 94.8
Niagara 94.8
Saint Peter’s 94.1
Monmouth 92.6
Manhattan 90.3
Mid-American PiRate Rating
Buffalo 111.9
Toledo 108.2
Ball St. 106.5
Akron 104.1
Kent St. 101.5
Northern Illinois 100.5
Miami OH 100.3
Ohio 99.6
Central Michigan 99.5
Bowling Green 98.7
Western Michigan 97.7
Eastern Michigan 97.6
Mideastern Athletic PiRate Rating
Norfolk St. 94.0
North Carolina Central 94.0
Howard 92.3
Bethune Cookman 91.7
North Carolina A&T 91.4
Morgan St. 90.4
South Carolina St. 88.9
Florida A&M 88.1
Maryland Eastern Shore 84.5
Coppin St. 84.5
Savannah St. 83.6
Delaware St. 81.6
Missouri Valley PiRate Rating
Loyola Chicago 106.2
Southern Illinois 102.4
Drake 101.9
Indiana St. 99.6
Valparaiso 99.3
Illinois St. 99.0
Evansville 98.8
Missouri St. 98.6
Bradley 98.4
Northern Iowa 97.7
Mountain West PiRate Rating
Nevada 115.9
Utah St. 108.5
Fresno St. 107.9
San Diego St. 104.1
Boise St. 102.5
UNLV 100.8
New Mexico 99.9
Colorado St. 95.7
Air Force 94.2
Wyoming 93.6
San Jose St. 89.3
Northeast PiRate Rating
Wagner 97.6
St. Francis PA 96.8
LIU Brooklyn 95.5
Fairleigh Dickinson 95.5
Robert Morris 94.9
St. Francis NY 93.8
Sacred Heart 93.8
Central Connecticut 92.7
Mount St. Mary’s 90.0
Bryant 89.7
Ohio Valley PiRate Rating
Murray St. 107.4
Belmont 105.7
Austin Peay 102.7
Jacksonville St. 102.5
Eastern Kentucky 95.0
Morehead St. 94.8
Southeast Missouri St. 93.6
Eastern Illinois 93.0
Tennessee St. 92.5
UT Martin 92.2
SIU Edwardsville 90.0
Tennessee Tech 89.6
Pac-12 PiRate Rating
Oregon 109.4
Arizona 108.4
Arizona St. 108.1
Washington 107.6
UCLA 106.4
Colorado 105.8
Oregon St. 105.6
USC 105.6
Stanford 102.4
Utah 102.3
Washington St. 99.1
California 96.9
Patriot PiRate Rating
Bucknell 101.5
Lehigh 100.8
Holy Cross 100.7
Colgate 99.4
American 98.4
Boston University 97.2
Army 94.8
Loyola MD 93.2
Lafayette 92.2
Navy 91.9
Southeastern PiRate Rating
Tennessee 115.6
Auburn 115.6
Kentucky 114.5
Mississippi St. 112.7
Florida 112.7
LSU 109.5
Mississippi 108.6
Alabama 107.6
Vanderbilt 107.4
Arkansas 107.3
Missouri 106.1
Georgia 105.4
Texas A&M 104.9
South Carolina 103.5
Southern PiRate Rating
Wofford 109.1
East Tennessee St. 105.5
UNC Greensboro 105.4
Furman 104.0
Samford 100.3
Mercer 99.2
The Citadel 98.2
Chattanooga 93.7
Western Carolina 90.7
VMI 90.1
Southland PiRate Rating
Abilene Christian 99.4
Stephen F. Austin 97.5
Lamar 97.1
Sam Houston St. 94.8
Houston Baptist 94.3
Nicholls St. 93.9
Texas A&M-CC 93.3
Central Arkansas 93.2
McNeese St. 92.5
New Orleans 92.2
Southeastern Louisiana 91.8
Incarnate Word 86.6
Northwestern St. 85.6
Southwestern Athletic PiRate Rating
Texas Southern 97.9
Grambling St. 93.9
Prairie View A&M 93.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.1
Alabama St. 89.9
Southern 88.4
Jackson St. 88.1
Alcorn St. 86.4
Alabama A&M 84.3
Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
Summit PiRate Rating
South Dakota St. 105.9
Purdue Fort Wayne 100.1
Omaha 98.2
South Dakota 97.9
North Dakota St. 97.6
Western Illinois 94.6
North Dakota 93.4
Oral Roberts 92.8
Denver 92.7
Sun Belt PiRate Rating
Georgia St. 104.3
Texas St. 103.6
Georgia Southern 103.1
Louisiana 100.5
Louisiana Monroe 100.4
Coastal Carolina 100.0
Troy 98.4
Appalachian St. 98.1
South Alabama 97.1
Little Rock 95.5
Arkansas St. 94.9
UT Arlington 94.8
West Coast PiRate Rating
Gonzaga 119.3
Saint Mary’s 109.4
San Francisco 109.0
BYU 105.9
San Diego 104.7
Loyola Marymount 101.8
Pacific 99.0
Pepperdine 98.0
Santa Clara 97.5
Portland 92.1
Western Athletic PiRate Rating
New Mexico St. 105.9
Grand Canyon 103.6
Utah Valley 102.2
Seattle 100.6
Cal St. Bakersfield 98.4
California Baptist 97.7
UMKC 95.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 94.7
Chicago St. 82.0

 

Coming Monday or Tuesday: Our first look this season at our incredibly accurate Bracketology Gurus.  This group’s composite has picked 135 out of 136 teams in the NCAA Tournament in their two years of existence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:06 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday October 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Appalachian St. -6.3 -6.6 -6.1

 

Thursday October 11
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Texas Tech 7.5 7.8 7.6
Texas St. Georgia Southern -17.3 -15.9 -18.5

 

Friday October 12
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulsa South Florida -4.8 -8.0 -4.8
Utah Arizona 15.0 14.9 15.3
San Diego St. Air Force 10.9 10.7 12.2

 

Saturday October 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Louisville 22.4 20.0 23.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -9.9 -8.1 -10.5
Eastern Michigan Toledo -1.7 -1.5 -0.8
South Carolina Texas A&M 1.7 2.0 1.5
Coastal Carolina Louisiana-Monroe 2.3 5.2 2.6
Illinois Purdue -11.6 -10.2 -12.1
Central Michigan Ball St. 3.8 4.1 4.6
Georgia Tech Duke 1.4 2.7 1.7
Maryland Rutgers 22.8 22.3 23.8
North Carolina Virginia Tech -11.1 -11.3 -11.7
Charlotte Western Kentucky -7.0 -8.1 -8.3
East Carolina Houston -16.9 -17.7 -17.5
Buffalo Akron 8.0 8.9 8.6
Old Dominion Marshall -6.6 -5.5 -7.8
Florida Int’l. Middle Tennessee 0.6 3.4 0.2
Miami (O) Kent St. 15.2 15.8 18.0
Utah St. UNLV 23.9 23.7 24.8
Colorado St. New Mexico -1.5 -2.2 -1.7
Liberty Troy -9.3 -11.8 -10.8
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 28.3 26.1 28.3
USC Colorado 8.6 5.4 6.6
San Jose St. Army -21.7 -21.5 -23.7
Oregon Washington -7.7 -5.5 -8.5
Northern Illinois Ohio U 5.3 5.0 4.7
UTSA Louisiana Tech -10.9 -8.8 -11.3
Bowling Green Western Michigan -9.1 -10.9 -10.2
Arkansas Ole Miss -0.3 -2.3 -1.5
Michigan Wisconsin 9.6 10.9 10.3
Ohio St. Minnesota 29.2 27.9 30.0
Navy Temple -8.5 -6.3 -10.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -0.5 -1.2 -0.2
North Texas Southern Miss. 17.8 17.1 17.9
Northwestern Nebraska 20.1 19.8 22.3
Indiana Iowa -11.4 -10.1 -10.9
Memphis Central Florida -10.2 -8.5 -9.9
Auburn Tennessee 24.5 22.7 26.8
Texas Baylor 13.3 13.9 13.4
Alabama Missouri 28.3 27.8 28.9
Vanderbilt Florida -11.7 -9.6 -12.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. -5.7 -5.4 -6.8
Rice UAB -20.8 -20.6 -23.2
LSU Georgia -13.1 -9.8 -13.1
Louisiana New Mexico St. 5.7 5.8 6.3
Penn St. Michigan St. 10.3 9.7 11.4
BYU Hawaii 21.5 19.7 23.0
California UCLA 13.8 11.5 15.6
Fresno St. Wyoming 19.1 18.1 20.1
Nevada Boise St. -17.5 -17.1 -18.3

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
South Alabama Alabama St. 29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9
2 Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9
3 Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2
5 Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5
6 Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7
7 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
8 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
9 Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0
10 Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0
11 Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3
12 Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5
13 Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1
14 Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6
15 Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3
16 L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2
17 Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6
18 Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
19 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
20 N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0
21 West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9
22 Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9
23 Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8
24 Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5
25 Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5
26 Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4
27 Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3
28 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
29 Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2
30 Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7
31 T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4
32 Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3
33 Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1
34 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0
35 Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3
36 Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1
37 Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4
38 Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3
39 Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9
40 U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8
41 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
42 Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8
43 Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0
45 Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0
46 Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8
47 California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3
48 Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0
49 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
50 Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0
51 Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6
52 San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2
53 Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2
54 Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8
55 Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8
56 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7
57 Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1
58 Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1
59 Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9
60 Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8
61 Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7
62 N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6
63 Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5
64 BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2
65 Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0
66 Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7
67 South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4
68 Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4
69 Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2
70 Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5
71 N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4
72 Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9
73 Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8
74 Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7
75 Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4
76 Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6
77 U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2
79 Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0
80 Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7
81 Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6
82 Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3
83 Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2
85 Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9
86 Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8
87 Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6
88 U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3
89 Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2
90 Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1
91 Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0
92 Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0
93 Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7
94 Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3
95 Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0
96 SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3
97 Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1
98 Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8
99 Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7
100 Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6
101 Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1
102 New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3
103 Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4
104 Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0
105 U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8
106 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6
107 Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2
108 Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8
109 Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5
110 Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5
111 Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1
112 Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0
113 East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8
114 Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8
115 U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9
116 Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4
117 Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0
118 Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
119 Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9
120 Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5
121 UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2
122 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1
123 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0
124 N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0
125 San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0
126 Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3
127 Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9
128 U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9
129 Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1
130 Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3 2-0 5-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7 2-0 3-3
South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4 1-0 5-0
Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8 0-2 2-3
Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 1-0 4-1
Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8 1-2 4-2
Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0 1-1 2-3
SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6 0-2 1-4
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5 1-1 4-2
Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7 0-3 2-4
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5 2-0 5-1
Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2 0-1 4-1
Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7 2-0 3-2
Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1 1-2 3-3
Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0 1-1 3-2
Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0 2-1 3-3
N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4 1-1 1-3
ACC Averages 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0 2-1 5-1
West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9 3-0 5-0
Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3 3-0 5-1
T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4 1-1 3-2
Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1 1-2 4-2
Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3 1-2 2-3
Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1 0-3 2-4
Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8 2-1 4-2
Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2 3-0 6-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 3-0 5-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6 2-1 3-2
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-1 3-2
Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7 1-2 4-2
Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1 2-0 4-1
Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5 1-1 4-1
Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3 2-1 2-3
Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1 0-2 3-2
Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6 0-3 0-5
Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9 1-1 3-2
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4 1-1 3-3
Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6 1-1 3-2
Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7 2-0 3-2
Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1 1-0 3-2
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5 0-3 1-5
Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6 1-1 5-1
Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2 1-1 3-2
U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3 2-0 4-1
Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0 1-0 2-2
U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9 2-0 3-3
U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9 0-2 0-6
Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3 0-2 1-5
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5 x 6-0
Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8 x 3-2
BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2 x 3-3
Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1 x 2-5
Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5 x 2-3
N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0 x 2-4
Independents Averages 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8 2-0 5-1
Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2 1-0 3-2
Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0 2-1 2-4
Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3 0-1 2-2
Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4 0-2 1-5
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1 0-2 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7 1-0 3-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2 3-0 3-3
Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8 0-3 2-4
Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0 2-0 4-2
Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4 0-2 1-5
Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8 1-1 2-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3 1-1 3-2
Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0 1-0 4-1
Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0 0-2 2-3
Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3 0-2 2-4
New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3 1-0 3-2
Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4 1-0 4-1
San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2 1-0 4-1
Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7 1-1 3-3
U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8 0-1 2-3
Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8 3-0 6-1
San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0 0-2 0-5
MWC Averages 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7 3-0 5-1
Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 2-1 5-1
California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3 0-2 3-2
Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8 1-2 3-2
U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0 2-0 5-0
Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7 2-1 3-3
U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6 0-2 0-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2 4-0 6-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6 0-2 3-2
Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 3-1 5-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-1 5-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0 2-2 3-2
Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5 0-2 3-3
Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9 3-0 6-0
Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0 1-2 4-2
Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2 2-1 5-1
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 2-1 4-2
Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6 0-2 4-2
Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2 0-3 1-5
SEC Averages 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1 3-0 5-1
Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8 2-0 4-1
Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0 1-1 3-2
Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1 0-1 3-2
Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9 1-1 2-3
UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2 0-2 2-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0 1-2 1-5
Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1 0-2 1-4
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
2 ACC 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
8 MWC 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Cincinnati
4 Fresno St.
5 San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Atlantic Louisiana
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan UAB
Frisco AAC MAC [BYU] Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC [Army] [Marshall]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Utah]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona St.] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Utah St.] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Nevada]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Baylor Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Ohio St. Clemson
Orange Alabama Notre Dame
National Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

September 19, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 20-24, 2018

Hooray for once.  The PiRate Ratings official picks last week enjoyed a nice winning record, sending the year to date record into positive territory.  It is a small profit, as the return on investment is just 1.92%, but at least it isn’t a red number.  Better yet, our straight picks against the spread or in the totals have a record of 11-6-1 for the season.  It is the exotic picks that have stunk up the joint.  Thus, we will go with just straight picks this week.

Best of all, out special Land Sharps are just torching the books with their selections.  One of the sharps, Buckeye Michelle, has been insane with her picks the last two weeks, and we have received messages from some of our regular subscribers asking for more information about her.  First of all, we are not in the business of matchmaking, so don’t ask.  And, yes, she is an incredibly beautiful 29-year old football fanatic.

One of you actually revealed to us that you know who Stewed Meat is.  Stewed is a real sharp.  Stewed lives in Nevada, and handicapping is Stewed career.  Stewed has shown us something special this week that many people never get the opportunity to see performed–playing the middle against both sides.  We’ll explain more about this at the end.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Selections Against The Spread

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wisconsin Iowa 3.5 Iowa
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 4.5 Coastal Carolina
North Carolina St. Marshall 4.5 North Carolina St.
Maryland Minnesota 3 Minnesota
Stanford Oregon 1.5 Stanford
West Virginia Kansas St. 17 Kansas St.
Chicago Arizona 7 Arizona
Philadelphia Indianapolis 6 Philadelphia
Green Bay Washington 3 Washington

Now for the Land Sharps.  At the present time, this is how each has done so far.

Buckeye Michelle is 9-1 for 90% against the spread and +$790 a 79% ROI

Cal Gal Tiffy is 9-3 for 75% against the spread and +$570 a 47.5% ROI

Friday Dog 13 is 4-2 for 67% against the spread and +$180 a 30% ROI

Stewed Meat is 6-4 for 60% against the spread and +$160 a 16% ROI

Dean 615 is 3-3 for 50% against the spread and -$30 a -5% ROI

If more than one of our expert pickers agree on picking the same game, it must be a strong pick.  You will notice that a couple of games were selected by multiple sharps this week.  You will also notice that a couple of sharps picked against each other.

If you are just tuning in to this feature, the rules are simple.  The 5 participants can select against the margin or going over or under the total for any FBS college football game.  They can select 3, 5,7, or 9 games each week.  We then select the most favorable spread available at oddshark.com.

Here are the Land Sharps Picks For the Week.

Buckeye Michelle

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Wake Forest +8 vs. Notre Dame

Army +32 vs. Oklahoma

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

 

Cal Gal Tiffy

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

South Carolina -2 vs. Vanderbilt

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

UTSA -7 vs. Texas St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Penn St. -28 vs. Illinois

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

Virginia -5 vs. Louisville

Clemson -16 vs. Georgia Tech

TCU -3 vs. Texas

 

Stewed Meat

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Iowa +3.5 vs. Wisconsin

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

Louisville +5.5 vs. Virginia

 

Dean 615

Notre Dame -7 vs. Wake Forest

Michigan St. -4.5 vs. Indiana

USC -3.5 vs. Washington St.

Texas +3.5 vs. TCU

Nebraska +18 vs. Michigan

 

Special Look At Stewed Meat’s Real Life Strategy

Stewed is an expert at “Middling”.  In order to be able to do this, Stewed gets access to playing the early line and then immediately plays one side of a game in which Stewed believes the line is off and will move in the opposite direction of which Stewed originally played.  Then, when the line moves in the opposite direction, Stewed plays the other side

Let’s look at an example.  Let’s say Alabama opens as a 14.5 point favorite over Auburn, and Stewed likes Auburn at this number.  So Stewed wagers on Auburn at +14.5.  During the week, a lot of other people believe 14.5 points are too much for Alabama, and they bet the spread down to 11.5.  Now, Stewed wagers on Alabama at -11.5.

On the surface, you might think this is nuts.  Stewed will have a slim chance of the game ending up at 12, 13, or 14 points in Alabama’s favor, giving Stewed two wins.  In most cases, Stewed will win one and lose one and lose $10 for every $100 wagered on both sides.

However, if you look at the 11-10 odds and do a little mathematical calculations, Stewed only needs to have the game come in at the middle of the extremes one time out of 19 in order to turn a profit, plus Stewed has a Margin of Safety in place, because the most Stewed can lose is 10% on the dollar wagered.

Earlier this week, Stewed Wagered on the following games that have seen a significant line change and then wagered on the other team once the line moved in the other direction.

SMU +12.5 vs. Navy

Navy -7 vs. SMU

 

Ball St. Pk vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky +3 vs. Ball St.

 

Alabama -23.5 vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M +27 vs. Alabama

 

Auburn -24 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas +30 vs. Auburn

If just one of these four games come in with the spread in the middle, Stewed will turn a nice profit.

March 31, 2017

PiRate Ratings Final Four Preview

PiRate Red-White-Blue Ratings

Saturday, April 1
Team Team Red White Blue
Gonzaga South Carolina 9 9 5
North Carolina Oregon 3 3 2

Tipoff Times

Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
Saturday, April 1
6:09 PM CBS Gonzaga vs. South Carolina
8:49 PM CBS North Carolina vs. Oregon

The Official Statistics 

Team Offense G FG FGA 3pt 3ptA FT FTA OReb DReb Reb To Stl Pts
Gonzaga 37 1100 2162 269 711 611 851 356 1141 1497 422 260 3080
                           
Team Defense G FG FGA 3pt 3ptA FT FTA OReb DReb Reb To Stl Pts
Gonzaga 37 824 2260 212 723 394 598 401 828 1229 463 195 2254
                           
                           
Team Offense G FG FGA 3pt 3ptA FT FTA OReb DReb Reb To Stl Pts
South Carolina 36 898 2132 241 715 595 853 451 857 1308 475 281 2632
                           
Team Defense G FG FGA 3pt 3ptA FT FTA OReb DReb Reb To Stl Pts
South Carolina 36 760 1909 199 668 618 855 391 873 1264 620 219 2337
                           
                           
Team Offense G FG FGA 3pt 3ptA FT FTA OReb DReb Reb To Stl Pts
North Carolina 38 1175 2492 271 750 608 863 598 1062 1660 458 269 3229
                           
Team Defense G FG FGA 3pt 3ptA FT FTA OReb DReb Reb To Stl Pts
North Carolina 38 940 2260 304 894 499 692 343 822 1165 514 242 2683
                           
                           
Team Offense G FG FGA 3pt 3ptA FT FTA OReb DReb Reb To Stl Pts
Oregon 38 1069 2212 327 854 535 759 400 985 1385 438 248 3000
                           
Team Defense G FG FGA 3pt 3ptA FT FTA OReb DReb Reb To Stl Pts
Oregon 38 907 2243 265 852 409 568 399 824 1223 504 179 2488

The Four Factors

Team EFG DEFG OR% DOR% TO% DTO% FT* DFT*
Gonzaga 57.1 41.2 30.1 26.0 14.1 15.4 23.2 15.1
South Carolina 47.8 45.0 34.1 31.3 15.8 21.1 23.2 24.3
North Carolina 52.6 48.3 42.1 24.4 13.6 16.6 22.0 18.1
Oregon 55.7 46.3 32.7 28.8 14.5 16.7 20.5 15.6

FT* & DFT* use FT/100 Possessions as its metric formula

 

PiRate Ratings Criteria

Team PPG Def Mar. FG-Marg Reb-Marg TO-Marg R+T* WLRd SOS OPoss DPoss Poss/G
Gonzaga 83.2 60.9 22.3 14.4 7.2 1.1 19.8 21-0 54.36 2632 2606 70.8
South Carolina 73.1 64.9 8.2 2.3 1.2 4.0 10.3 11-7 56.96 2561 2544 70.9
North Carolina 85.0 70.6 14.4 5.6 13.0 1.5 30.7 15-7 59.00 2762 2760 72.7
Oregon 78.9 65.5 13.5 7.9 4.3 1.7 14.8 16-5 56.83 2611 2618 68.8

R+T*: For those of you new to the PiRate Ratings, the R+T rating is our own invention.  It is an attempt to estimate the potential number of points above or below average that a team is capable of scoring due to superior rebounding, forcing and avoiding turnover, and especially getting and avoiding steals, the most punishing of turnovers, as it almost always leads to points and/or fouls.  The number represents the potential points scored against an average team just from the hustle stats.  Thus, at 19.8, Gonzaga could be expected to score 20 points per game against an average team just from their rebounding margin and turnover margin, with an emphasis on steals margin.  The 20 points is figured based on extra scoring opportunities and includes the possibility that fast break shots might be missed and the team might turn the ball over with this added opportunity.

Anything over 15.0 is outstanding, while anything over 25.0 is super and a major contributor to winning a lot of games.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Comparisons

Gonzaga vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Reason–Since 1985 with the 64 or 68-team tournament, there have been 64 teams in the 32 National Championship Games.  60 of the 64 came from Power Conferences

 

Advantage–South Carolina, as the WCC is not a power conference, while the SEC is

 

Strength of Schedule: Reason–All National Champions since SOS records have been kept had SOS’s of 4 points better than average.  

Advantage–Slight to South Carolina.  Both teams qualify here, but USC’s SOS is about 2 1/2 points stronger per game on average.

R+T Rating: Reason–All Champions in since 2000 have had R+T above 10.0

Advantage: Gonzaga has a substantial advantage here, but South Carolina barely qualifies.  The Bulldogs should expect to have the chance to score 10 extra points from R+T Rating, meaning USC will have to make up for this with Field Goal margin.

Scoring Margin: Reason–Almost every team in the NCAA Championship Game throughout the history of the tournament have had scoring margins in excess of 8 points per game, and most had double-digit margins.

Advantage: Gonzaga has a substantial edge here, but USC also qualifies by the skin of their teeth.  Gonzaga’s 20+ scoring margin must be discounted a little due to their schedule, but we can adjust this to about 12 points if the Zags had played in the Pac-12.

 

Field Goal % Margin: Reason–Over 90% of all title participants have had FG% Margins in excess of 5% and a majority have had margins over 8%.  Teams with double digit margins have dominated title games when the opponent had margins under 5%.  There are exceptions, like 1985 when Villanova upset Georgetown.

Advantage: Major advantage to Gonzaga, as their FG% margin has the look of many of John Wooden’s UCLA teams.  USC does not qualify here with a FG% margin of just 2%.

PiRate Criteria Analysis: Except for conference class, Gonzaga has the look of a dominant national championship team.  However, class is just as important in college basketball as it is in horse racing.  A great horse from a small track that has several smaller stakes wins might have better numbers than the horses that run at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, and most of the time, these horses fail when running in a Grade 1 race.

Gonzaga is not your normal mid-major team.  They are more like Butler when the Bulldogs went to back-to-back title games and UNLV from 1990.  Gonzaga has the talent to win it all.  They have a dominant inside game and an underrated perimeter game.

South Carolina has a lot of heart, and their defense has stepped it up in the tournament.  The Gamecocks looked like this at the start of the season before injuries began to affect the perimeter defense.  Now, USC is fully healthy again, and the players remind us of the Gashouse Gang (The 1934 St. Louis Cardinals World Series Champions).  Opponents feel like they have gone 12 rounds with Joe Louis after 40 minutes of playing against them.

We expect South Carolina to keep this game close for the first 32 minutes or so, but after that Gonzaga’s superior inside strength will take its toll, as both teams tire late and begin to misfire from outside.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Prediction: Gonzaga 69  South Carolina 61

 

North Carolina vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Advantage–Very slight advantage to North Carolina, as the ACC is the equivalent of the AL East in Major League Baseball.  No Pac-12 team has won the title since Arizona 20 years ago.

Strength of Schedule: Advantage–Slight edge to North Carolina by an average of about 2.2 points per game

R+T Rating: Advantage–North Carolina has the largest R+T Rating in all of Division 1, as they did last year when they came within a second of winning the title.  Oregon’s rating is almost 15, which means the Ducks are exceptional as well, just not as exceptional as UNC.  Also missing 6-10 Chris Boucher in this game should be somewhat important, and the  Tar Heels will have a decided rebounding advantage, a major component of R+T.

Scoring Margin: Advantage–A Push, as both teams have similar numbers.

Field Goal % Margin: Advantage–Oregon has a minor but definite advantage with numbers that look a little more like a Championship Game participant, but teams have won the title with the same margin as the Tar Heels.  

PiRate Criteria Analysis: All during this tournament, we have been concerned about Oregon missing Boucher, thinking that eventually the Duck frontcourt would wear down in the second games of the two previous weekends.  That did not happen, as the Ducks rallied and found another gear.  We are now ready to admit to this mistake.  Oregon can win all the marbles without Boucher.  However, this is the first game where their opponent has the scary frontcourt.  Oregon needs Boucher not because of depth, but because they need a 6-10 bruiser to bang it with Carolina’s titans.

North Carolina’s perimeter play has had the look of a national champion.  The guards stepped up on both sides of the ball late in the games with Arkansas and Kentucky, refusing to end the season.  Remember too that UNC feels slighted for last year.  They had the national championship trophy in grasp until a last second shot moved that trophy over to Villanova’s locker room.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Prediction: North Carolina 85  Oregon 75

 

4 Interesting Possible National Title Games

You the typical college basketball fan is guaranteed to have a great title game Monday night no matter who wins tomorrow.  Let’s look at each of the four possibilities.

 

Gonzaga vs. North Carolina:  These are the two teams that looked like the most dominant throughout most of the season.  Earlier in the season, when these teams were playing in tournaments against quality opposition, they won handily, dominating in all facets of the game.  Also, this represents the old guard of UNC against the upstart that has been threatening to get this far for years in Gonzaga.  

Gonzaga vs. Oregon: There has not been an all West Coast National Championship Game before.  Of course, until the age when more than one team per conference going to the Big Dance, it was not possible, as these two teams would have both been in the West Regional.  Still, it would be interesting to have two teams from the Pacific Northwest facing off in the title game.

South Carolina vs. North Carolina: Many of you have not experienced a Dodgers-Yankees or Giants–Yankees World Series.  In our opinion, nothing can beat a Dodgers-Yankees World Series.  This would be an equivalent.  These two teams were both in the ACC for many years until the Gamecocks became an Independent following the 1971 season (when they were the ACC Champions).  Two former South Carolina head coaches, Frank McGuire and Eddie Fogler, had North Carolina ties, and Fogler has been BFFs with Roy Williams for decades.

South Carolina vs. Oregon: A lot of people would find it very interesting if the Seattle Mariners played the Washington Nationals in the World Series.  Not having the Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, or Giants would be a great change of pace.  The Cleveland-Chicago World Series last year did more for Major League Baseball than American Pharoh’s winning the Triple Crown in 2015.  A Gamecock-Duck National Championship Game could make fans of all Division 1 teams from Power Conferences believe their team could do it too.

 

 

March 25, 2017

PiRate Ratings Elite 8 Preview

RED-WHITE-BLUE RATINGS

Saturday, March 25
Team Team Red White Blue
Gonzaga Xavier 11 8 3
Kansas Oregon 6 3 3

 

Sunday, March 26
Team Team Red White Blue
Kentucky North Carolina 1 -2 -1
Florida South Carolina 6 7 5

 

PiRate Ratings National Championship Criteria Breakdown of the Elite 8

Gonzaga vs. Xavier

Power Conference: Xavier-Yes, Gonzaga-No    Favors Xavier

Strength of Schedule: Xavier 58.70, Gonzaga 54.02  Favors Xavier by a little

R+T Rating: Gonzaga 20.3, Xavier 14.4  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Scoring Margin: Gonzaga 22.3, Xavier 4.0  Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

FG% Differential: Gonzaga 14.5, Xavier 1.1  Favors Gonzaga by a lot

Road W-L: Gonzaga 20-0, Xavier 12-9   Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

Winning Streaks: Gonzaga 29 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Expected Possessions in this Game: 69 per team  Favors neither team

Outcome: Gonzaga has everything going for it except conference strength and schedule.  If the Bulldogs had the same numbers and played in the Big East, they would have the perfect resume for a national champion.  However, there hasn’t been a national champion from outside a power conference since UNLV won in 1990, and before that, it was Texas Western in 1966.  Of course, non power conference teams have made it to the Final Four numerous times in the past decade.

Criteria Selection: GONZAGA 75  Xavier 70

 

Kansas vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Yes for Both   Favors neither team

Strength of Schedule: Kansas 58.11, Oregon 56.83  Only slightly favors Kansas

R+T Rating: Oregon 14.8,  Kansas 12.6  Only slightly favors Oregon

Scoring Margin: Oregon 13.5, Kansas 12.0  Not much difference

FG% Differential: Oregon 7.7, Kansas 7.5  A Push

Road W-L: Kansas 16-3, Oregon 15-5  This favors Kansas, but it is almost a home game for KU

Winning Streaks: Kansas 18 & 8, Oregon 17 & 8  A Push

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Slightly favors Kansas

Outcome: We have to include two extra criteria here.  Oregon’s stats must be slightly discounted due to the loss of Boucher, and Kansas is playing this game in their favorite venue not named Phog Allen Fieldhouse, earning about two points of home court advantage.   Otherwise, this game would be a tossup, and it still might be rather close.  However, watching what KU did to a quality Purdue team on this court Thursday night, it makes us wonder if any college team can beat Kansas in KC.  Oops!  That happened in the Big 12 Tournament, so think again–except not today.

Criteria Selection: KANSAS 83  Oregon 75

 

Florida vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both and both in the SEC so this is a third game between these teams.  Both teams won the game on their home floor.

Strength of Schedule: Florida 59.34, South Carolina 56.23  A slight edge to the Gators

R+T Rating: Florida 11.1, South Carolina 10.4  About the same

Scoring Margin: Florida 11.9, South Carolina 8.3  A small edge to the Gators

FG% Differential: Florida 4.3, South Carolina 2.3  A small edge to the Gators

Road W-L: Florida 18-7, South Carolina 10-7, actually about the same as UF played a lot of early neutral site games in their own backyard while their gym was being refurbished

Winning Streaks: Florida 9 & 7, South Carolina 8 & 5

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Favors neither team

Outcome: South Carolina’s defense in their Sweet 16 game against Baylor was the best we have seen in a game this late into the Big Dance since Georgetown manhandled Kentucky in 1984, which comes on top of one of the best offensive performances in their win over Duke.  Can the Gamecocks do this to a team that is not just a conference foe, but a rather strong rival?  Florida might also be a tad fatigued coming off the overtime win over Wisconsin, but it helps that the Gators are facing a team they know about without having to look at the film for a long time.  This will be the most exciting game of this round, even more exciting than the big UK-UNC match, because this will have the feel of the 7th game of an NBA playoff series.

Criteria Selection: FLORIDA 67  South Carolina 64

 

Kentucky vs. North Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both  Before the tourney started, the ACC might have gotten a little extra over the SEC, but with 3 of the Elite 8 from the SEC, it almost makes us think about the opposite

Strength of Schedule: North Carolina 59.00, Kentucky 58.63   A Push

R+T Rating: North Carolina 31.0,  Kentucky 17.1  UNC has the best R+T in NCAA basketball, but Kentucky’s is rather high as well, and in the course of this game, it will not give the Tar Heels a lot of advantage

Scoring Margin: North Carolina 14.7, Kentucky 13.8  Not enough difference to matter

FG% Differential: North Carolina 5.6,  Kentucky 5.2  A Push

Road W-L: Kentucky 17-3, North Carolina 14-7,  A slight edge to the Wildcats

Winning Streaks: Kentucky 14 & 7, North Carolina 13 & 7, While this looks like another push, Kentucky’s 14-game winning streak is ongoing, and there is a definite difference in the Wildcats’ performance in this streak, while Carolina played its best basketball in November and December

Expected Possessions in this Game: 74,  which favors Kentucky just like it did in December

Outcome: We selected Kentucky to run the table and win the National Championship before the NCAA Tournament started, and nothing has changed our beliefs that the Wildcats are the best team in the nation when they want to play up to their potential.  It can be difficult to motivate a stable full of future NBA Lottery picks, but Coach John Calipari is a master psychologist with an ability to coerce through his many talks with his players.  When any of the starters and a couple reserves can go off and score 25 points in a game, it is hard to prepare in advance.  Stop Monk, and someone else has a career night.

Criteria Selection: KENTUCKY 85  North Carolina 73

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