PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Charlotte	Radford	3.7
Oklahoma St.	North Texas	5.3
Oregon	Wisconsin	5.0
Southern Utah	Eastern Kentucky	4.1

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 19, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Baylor	Creighton	-0.3
Colorado	Utah Valley	4.7
Connecticut	Saint Mary’s	4.2
Duquesne	Rice	5.5
Eastern Kentucky	Cleveland St.	0.8
Florida Atlantic	Fairleigh Dickinson	18.7
Gonzaga	TCU	4.4
Indiana	Miami (Fla)	1.8
Kansas St.	Kentucky	-0.2
Marquette	Michigan St.	3.2
North Texas	Sam Houston St.	3.4
Oklahoma St.	Eastern Washington	11.5
Oregon	Central Florida	4.6
Stetson	Milwaukee	2.7
Tarleton St.	Radford	1.1
UAB	Morehead St.	16.0
Wisconsin	Liberty	2.9
Xavier	Pittsburgh	5.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Texas Southern	Fairleigh Dickinson	1.4
Clemson	Morehead St.	17.0
Florida	Central Florida	4.5
Youngstown St.	Oklahoma St.	-6.2
North Texas	Alcorn St.	16.3
Cincinnati	Virginia Tech	4.8
Santa Clara	Sam Houston St..	1.8
Arizona St.	Nevada	-0.1
New Mexico	Utah Valley	5.3
Oregon	UC Irvine	8.8

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special

With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.

Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.

Team	NET	COM	SOS	NSOS	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Away	Today
Arizona St.	66	66	62	123	5-6	4-5	5-0	8-1	12-7
Clemson	57	63	123	312	4-4	3-2	7-2	9-2	8-9
Mississippi St.	49	50	43	204	4-8	4-3	5-1	8-0	9-8
Nevada	37	42	24	70	4-5	4-3	10-2	3-0	8-9
North Carolina	46	44	12	18	2-9	5-4	7-0	6-0	8-10
North Texas	38	46	83	112	1-3	3-2	11-1	9-1	14-5
Oklahoma St.	43	38	11	158	6-12	4-2	3-1	5-0	7-10
Oregon	47	40	28	7	2-9	7-4	5-1	5-0	6-9
Pittsburgh	67	77	86	122	4-4	3-5	5-1	10-1	8-8
Rutgers	40	35	48	219	5-7	5-3	2-4	7-0	5-9
UAB	52	54	119	293	2-3	1-3	9-1	12-1	10-6	FAU
Utah St.	18	18	20	29	2-4	9-1	13-0	1-2	12-5	SDSU
Vanderbilt	79	79	6	12	5-9	5-1	5-2	5-1	8-8	TXAM
Wisconsin	82	75	36	118	6-8	5-5	1-1	5-0	8-8

These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.

Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.

In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.

Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.

If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/10/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	UCLA	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Kansas St.	Gonzaga	Marquette	Tennessee
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Virginia	Indiana
5	Iowa St.	Miami (Fla)	San Diego St.	TCU
6	Saint Mary’s	Creighton	Kentucky	Duke
7	Texas A&M	Michigan St.	Northwestern	Missouri
8	Maryland	Illinois	Arkansas	Iowa
9	Florida Atlantic	Memphis	Auburn	Boise St.
10	West Virginia	Providence	North Carolina St.	USC
11	Utah St.	Rutgers	Pittsburgh	Mississippi St.	Penn St.	Arizona St.
12	Oral Roberts	Drake	Charleston	VCU
13	Toledo	Utah Valley	Iona	Yale
14	Louisiana	Furman	UC Santa Barbara	Colgate
15	Kennesaw St.	Vermont	UNC Asheville	Montana St.
16	N. Kentucky	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Grambling	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

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Starting Today, First Four Out and Next Four Out give way to the teams that can still work their way into the Field of 68 if they keep winning. There are six teams on the Bubble but not currently in the Bracket Prediction above. Additionally, there is a definite potential bid-stealer.

Teams (In Order) that can still play their way into the Field:

Oklahoma St.

Clemson

Oregon

North Texas

Vanderbilt

UAB

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Potential Bid-Stealer: Ohio St.

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Potential At-large addition if they lose in their tournament: Florida Atlantic

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/9/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	UCLA	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Kansas St.	Gonzaga	Marquette	Tennessee
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	San Diego St.	Miami (Fla)	Saint Mary’s	Iowa St.
6	TCU	Creighton	Kentucky	Texas A&M
7	Duke	Michigan St.	Northwestern	Maryland
8	Illinois	Missouri	Arkansas	Iowa
9	Auburn	West Virginia	Florida Atlantic	Memphis
10	Boise St.	Providence	North Carolina St.	USC
11	Pittsburgh	Mississippi St.	Nevada	Penn St.	Utah St.	Rutgers
12	Oral Roberts	Drake	Charleston	VCU
13	Utah Valley	Toledo	Iona	Yale
14	Louisiana	Furman	UC Santa Barbara	Colgate
15	Kennesaw St.	Vermont	UNC Asheville	Montana St.
16	N. Kentucky	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Grambling	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

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Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St. USC, Pittsburgh, Mississippi St.

Last 4 In: Nevada, Penn St., Utah St., Rutgers

First 4 Out: Oklahoma St., North Carolina, Arizona St., Wisconsin

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Oregon, Michigan, North Texas

Note: Vanderbilt replaces Wisconsin in this list, as the Badgers are eliminated from the Bubble, moving Clemson up one notch, and Vanderbilt as the last of the NFO. Technically, UW still has the fourth highest PiRate Bracketology Score not in the field, but they cannot move up after being eliminated by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. The other teams on the Bubble can continue to improve their resumes.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/6/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	UCLA	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Marquette	Kansas St.	Tennessee	Gonzaga
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	San Diego St.	Saint Mary’s	Miami (Fla)	TCU
6	Iowa St.	Duke	Creighton	Texas A&M
7	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Northwestern	Maryland
8	Illinois	Iowa	Missouri	Arkansas
9	Florida Atlantic	Boise St.	Auburn	Providence
10	Memphis	West Virginia	North Carolina St.	USC
11	Pittsburgh	Rutgers	Mississippi St.	Nevada	Wisconsin	Penn St.
12	Oral Roberts	VCU	Drake	Hofstra
13	Utah Valley	Toledo	Iona	Louisiana
14	Yale	Furman	UC Santa Barbara	Kennesaw St.
15	Colgate	Vermont	Montana St.	Youngstown St.
16	UNC Asheville	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Grambling	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

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Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St., USC, Pittsburgh, Rutgers

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Arizona St., Oklahoma St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/5/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	UCLA
2	Purdue	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Marquette	Kansas St.	Tennessee	Gonzaga
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	San Diego St.	Saint Mary’s	Iowa St.	Miami (Fla)
6	TCU	Creighton	Kentucky	Duke
7	Texas A&M	Michigan St.	Iowa	Northwestern
8	Maryland	Missouri	Illinois	Arkansas
9	Florida Atlantic	Boise St.	Auburn	Providence
10	West Virginia	Memphis	USC	Rutgers
11	North Carolina St.	Pittsburgh	Mississippi St.	Nevada	Utah St.	Arizona St.
12	Oral Roberts	Hofstra	VCU	Bradley
13	Kennesaw St.	Utah Valley	Toledo	Iona
14	Louisiana	Yale	UC Santa Barbara	Furman
15	Colgate	E. Washington	Vermont	Youngstown St.
16	UNC Asheville	Grambling	Howard	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Fairleigh-Dickinson

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Last 4 Byes: USC, Rutgers, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Utah St., Arizona St.

First 4 Out: Wisconsin, Oklahoma St., Penn St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/3/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	UCLA	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Kansas St.	Tennessee	Marquette	Gonzaga
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	TCU	San Diego St.	Saint Mary’s	Miami (Fla)
6	Creighton	Kentucky	Iowa St.	Duke
7	Michigan St.	Texas A&M	Maryland	Iowa
8	Northwestern	Missouri	Illinois	Boise St.
9	Providence	Arkansas	Florida Atlantic	Memphis
10	North Carolina St.	Nevada	USC	West Virginia
11	Auburn	Pittsburgh	Mississippi St.	Rutgers	Arizona St.	Wisconsin
12	Oral Roberts	Bradley	VCU	Iona
13	Southern Miss.	Hofstra	Toledo	Utah Valley
14	Furman	UC-Irvine	Colgate	Youngstown St.
15	Kennesaw St.	Vermont	E. Washington	Penn
16	UNC Asheville	Grambling	Texas A&M-CC	Morehead St.	Howard	Fairleigh-Dickinson

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Last 4 Byes: USC, West Virginia, Auburn, Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Rutgers, Arizona St., Wisconsin

First 4 Out: North Carolina, Utah St., Penn State, Michigan

Next 4 Out: Oklahoma St., Oregon, Clemson, New Mexico

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 19, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Bellarmine	Central Arkansas	8.4
Boise St.	UNLV	8.3
Butler	Georgetown	8.5
Central Florida	Cincinnati	2.7
Chicago St.	Hartford	13.6
Cleveland St.	Northern Kentucky	2.5
Detroit	IUPUI	17.3
Drake	Belmont	6.8
Fairfield	Manhattan	5.8
Furman	East Tennessee St.	13.1
Houston	Memphis	11.6
Illinois Chicago	Valparaiso	1.3
Marist	Niagara	-1.9
Mount St. Mary’s	Canisius	1.8
Nebraska	Maryland	-5.3
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	1.9
Northwestern	Iowa	0.1
Purdue	Ohio St.	9.5
Purdue Ft. Wayne	Wright St.	-0.3
Quinnipiac	Rider	3.4
Saint Peter’s	Iona	-11.8
SMU	East Carolina	4.4
Southern Illinois	Bradley	-2.6
St. Bonaventure	George Washington	6.2
Temple	Tulsa	13.4
Washington St.	Oregon	0.7