The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 21, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Tuesday, March 21, 2023

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CharlotteRadford3.7
Oklahoma St.North Texas5.3
OregonWisconsin5.0
Southern UtahEastern Kentucky4.1

March 19, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Sunday, March 19, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:39 am
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BaylorCreighton-0.3
ColoradoUtah Valley4.7
ConnecticutSaint Mary’s4.2
DuquesneRice5.5
Eastern KentuckyCleveland St.0.8
Florida AtlanticFairleigh Dickinson18.7
GonzagaTCU4.4
IndianaMiami (Fla)1.8
Kansas St.Kentucky-0.2
MarquetteMichigan St.3.2
North TexasSam Houston St.3.4
Oklahoma St.Eastern Washington11.5
OregonCentral Florida4.6
StetsonMilwaukee2.7
Tarleton St.Radford1.1
UABMorehead St.16.0
WisconsinLiberty2.9
XavierPittsburgh5.4

March 15, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 15, 2023

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Texas SouthernFairleigh Dickinson1.4
ClemsonMorehead St.17.0
FloridaCentral Florida4.5
Youngstown St.Oklahoma St.-6.2
North TexasAlcorn St.16.3
CincinnatiVirginia Tech4.8
Santa ClaraSam Houston St..1.8
Arizona St.Nevada-0.1
New MexicoUtah Valley5.3
OregonUC Irvine8.8

March 11, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special

With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.

Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.

TeamNETCOMSOSNSOSQ1Q2Q3Q4AwayToday
Arizona St.6666621235-64-55-08-112-7
Clemson57631233124-43-27-29-28-9
Mississippi St.4950432044-84-35-18-09-8
Nevada374224704-54-310-23-08-9
North Carolina464412182-95-47-06-08-10
North Texas3846831121-33-211-19-114-5
Oklahoma St.4338111586-124-23-15-07-10
Oregon47402872-97-45-15-06-9
Pittsburgh6777861224-43-55-110-18-8
Rutgers4035482195-75-32-47-05-9
UAB52541192932-31-39-112-110-6FAU
Utah St.181820292-49-113-01-212-5SDSU
Vanderbilt79796125-95-15-25-18-8TXAM
Wisconsin8275361186-85-51-15-08-8

These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.

Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.

In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.

Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.

If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.

March 10, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/10/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3Kansas St.GonzagaMarquetteTennessee
4ConnecticutXavierVirginiaIndiana
5Iowa St.Miami (Fla)San Diego St.TCU
6Saint Mary’sCreightonKentuckyDuke
7Texas A&MMichigan St.NorthwesternMissouri
8MarylandIllinoisArkansasIowa
9Florida AtlanticMemphisAuburnBoise St.
10West VirginiaProvidenceNorth Carolina St.USC
11Utah St.RutgersPittsburghMississippi St.Penn St.Arizona St.
12Oral RobertsDrakeCharlestonVCU
13ToledoUtah ValleyIonaYale
14LouisianaFurmanUC Santa BarbaraColgate
15Kennesaw St.VermontUNC AshevilleMontana St.
16N. KentuckyTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.GramblingHowardFairleigh Dickinson

Starting Today, First Four Out and Next Four Out give way to the teams that can still work their way into the Field of 68 if they keep winning. There are six teams on the Bubble but not currently in the Bracket Prediction above. Additionally, there is a definite potential bid-stealer.

Teams (In Order) that can still play their way into the Field:

Oklahoma St.
Clemson
Oregon
North Texas
Vanderbilt
UAB

Potential Bid-Stealer: Ohio St.


Potential At-large addition if they lose in their tournament: Florida Atlantic

March 9, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/9/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3Kansas St.GonzagaMarquetteTennessee
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5San Diego St.Miami (Fla)Saint Mary’sIowa St.
6TCUCreightonKentuckyTexas A&M
7DukeMichigan St.NorthwesternMaryland
8IllinoisMissouriArkansasIowa
9AuburnWest VirginiaFlorida AtlanticMemphis
10Boise St.ProvidenceNorth Carolina St.USC
11PittsburghMississippi St.NevadaPenn St.Utah St.Rutgers
12Oral RobertsDrakeCharlestonVCU
13Utah ValleyToledoIonaYale
14LouisianaFurmanUC Santa BarbaraColgate
15Kennesaw St.VermontUNC AshevilleMontana St.
16N. KentuckyTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.GramblingHowardFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St. USC, Pittsburgh, Mississippi St.

Last 4 In: Nevada, Penn St., Utah St., Rutgers

First 4 Out: Oklahoma St., North Carolina, Arizona St., Wisconsin

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Oregon, Michigan, North Texas

Note: Vanderbilt replaces Wisconsin in this list, as the Badgers are eliminated from the Bubble, moving Clemson up one notch, and Vanderbilt as the last of the NFO. Technically, UW still has the fourth highest PiRate Bracketology Score not in the field, but they cannot move up after being eliminated by Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. The other teams on the Bubble can continue to improve their resumes.

March 6, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:19 am
Date3/6/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3MarquetteKansas St.TennesseeGonzaga
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5San Diego St.Saint Mary’sMiami (Fla)TCU
6Iowa St.DukeCreightonTexas A&M
7KentuckyMichigan St.NorthwesternMaryland
8IllinoisIowaMissouriArkansas
9Florida AtlanticBoise St.AuburnProvidence
10MemphisWest VirginiaNorth Carolina St.USC
11PittsburghRutgersMississippi St.NevadaWisconsinPenn St.
12Oral RobertsVCUDrakeHofstra
13Utah ValleyToledoIonaLouisiana
14YaleFurmanUC Santa BarbaraKennesaw St.
15ColgateVermontMontana St.Youngstown St.
16UNC AshevilleTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.GramblingHowardFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St., USC, Pittsburgh, Rutgers

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Arizona St., Oklahoma St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

March 5, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:18 am
Date3/5/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasUCLA
2PurdueTexasBaylorArizona
3MarquetteKansas St.TennesseeGonzaga
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5San Diego St.Saint Mary’sIowa St.Miami (Fla)
6TCUCreightonKentuckyDuke
7Texas A&MMichigan St.IowaNorthwestern
8MarylandMissouriIllinoisArkansas
9Florida AtlanticBoise St.AuburnProvidence
10West VirginiaMemphisUSCRutgers
11North Carolina St.PittsburghMississippi St.NevadaUtah St.Arizona St.
12Oral RobertsHofstraVCUBradley
13Kennesaw St.Utah ValleyToledoIona
14LouisianaYaleUC Santa BarbaraFurman
15ColgateE. WashingtonVermontYoungstown St.
16UNC AshevilleGramblingHowardTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.Fairleigh-Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: USC, Rutgers, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Utah St., Arizona St.

First 4 Out: Wisconsin, Oklahoma St., Penn St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

March 3, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:27 am
Date3/3/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3Kansas St.TennesseeMarquetteGonzaga
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5TCUSan Diego St.Saint Mary’sMiami (Fla)
6CreightonKentuckyIowa St.Duke
7Michigan St.Texas A&MMarylandIowa
8NorthwesternMissouriIllinoisBoise St.
9ProvidenceArkansasFlorida AtlanticMemphis
10North Carolina St.NevadaUSCWest Virginia
11AuburnPittsburghMississippi St.RutgersArizona St.Wisconsin
12Oral RobertsBradleyVCUIona
13Southern Miss.HofstraToledoUtah Valley
14FurmanUC-IrvineColgateYoungstown St.
15Kennesaw St.VermontE. WashingtonPenn
16UNC AshevilleGramblingTexas A&M-CCMorehead St.HowardFairleigh-Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: USC, West Virginia, Auburn, Pittsburgh

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Rutgers, Arizona St., Wisconsin

First 4 Out: North Carolina, Utah St., Penn State, Michigan

Next 4 Out: Oklahoma St., Oregon, Clemson, New Mexico

February 19, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 19, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
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BellarmineCentral Arkansas8.4
Boise St.UNLV8.3
ButlerGeorgetown8.5
Central FloridaCincinnati2.7
Chicago St.Hartford13.6
Cleveland St.Northern Kentucky2.5
DetroitIUPUI17.3
DrakeBelmont6.8
FairfieldManhattan5.8
FurmanEast Tennessee St.13.1
HoustonMemphis11.6
Illinois ChicagoValparaiso1.3
MaristNiagara-1.9
Mount St. Mary’sCanisius1.8
NebraskaMaryland-5.3
North Carolina St.North Carolina1.9
NorthwesternIowa0.1
PurdueOhio St.9.5
Purdue Ft. WayneWright St.-0.3
QuinnipiacRider3.4
Saint Peter’sIona-11.8
SMUEast Carolina4.4
Southern IllinoisBradley-2.6
St. BonaventureGeorge Washington6.2
TempleTulsa13.4
Washington St.Oregon0.7
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