2019 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

There was a time when the Pac-12 Conference, or one of its predecessor leagues like the Pac-10, Pac-8, Athletic Association of Western Universities, or Pacific Coast Conference was the premier football conference in America.  Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, California, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State have all been elite programs at some point in history.

In recent years, the league has failed to produce a dominant team like the 1954 UCLA Bruins, the 1972 USC Trojans or the 1991 Washington Huskies.  Oregon and Washington have fielded really good teams in this decade, but no Pac-12 team has finished number one since USC won in 2004 with Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Matt Leinart starred at the LA Coliseum.

While the Pac-12 champion has been a touchdown to 10 points weaker than the SEC Champion in the last decade, the bottom teams in the league have been better than other conferences’ bottom teams.  Since moving from eight to nine conference games in 2006, in 10 of the 12 years, at least one team and in many cases two teams have come up one win short of bowl eligibility.  Only Oregon in 2010 has been able to go 9-0 in the league and win the Pac-12 Championship Game as well.

Will this be the year that one team emerges from the pack to earn the league’s first playoff spot since Washington in 2016?  The odds say it won’t happen this year.  The league is too balanced, and there are no dominant teams.  It also doesn’t help that the two leading contenders for the conference championship must face off in an interdivisional game, and chances are high the two teams could split those games.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Pac-12 Media Poll
North Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Oregon	17	190
2	Washington	17	189
3	Stanford	0	129
4	Washington St.	1	108
5	California	0	81
6	Oregon St.	0	38
South Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Utah	33	206
2	USC	2	167
3T	Arizona St.	0	118
3T	UCLA	0	118
5	Arizona	0	85
6	Colorado	0	46
	Championship Game Winner		Overall Votes
	Utah		12
	Oregon		11
	Washington		9
	USC		2
	Washington St.		1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Pac-12
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	113.6	113.5	114.9	114.0
Washington	112.5	111.9	113.6	112.7
Washington St.	111.8	110.7	112.0	111.5
Stanford	108.5	107.5	108.6	108.2
California	106.8	107.0	108.1	107.3
Oregon St.	95.1	96.2	93.9	95.1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.4	114.7	116.6	115.9
Arizona St.	107.7	106.6	108.3	107.6
U C L A	107.6	106.9	106.8	107.1
U S C	104.0	105.2	104.4	104.6
Arizona	101.7	102.0	102.2	102.0
Colorado	99.8	99.0	99.9	99.5
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.4	107.1

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
North Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Washington	8-1	11-2
2	Oregon	7-2	9-3
3	Stanford	6-3	7-5
4	Washington St.	5-4	8-4
5	California	3-6	5-7
6	Oregon St.	0-9	1-11
South Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Utah	7-2	11-2*
2	UCLA	5-4	6-6
3	Arizona St.	4-5	6-6
4	USC	4-5	5-7
5	Arizona	3-6	5-7
6	Colorado	1-8	3-9
*	Utah picked to win Pac-12 Championship Game

 

As you can see, if our predictions are correct, three Pac-12 teams will miss bowl eligibility by one game, most likely because rather than playing an easy Group of 5 or FCS opponent, they will be playing a ninth conference game.

 

Bowl Predictions	Team
Playoffs	Not This Year
Rose	Utah
Cotton	Washington
Alamo	Oregon
Holiday	Washington St.
Redbox	Stanford
Sun	Arizona St.
Vegas	UCLA
Cheez-it	(At-large team needed)

 

Coaches That Could Move Up To Major Programs

None, but Stanford’s David Shaw has been rumored for years to be in the mix for a future NFL head coaching position.

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Clay Helton, USC

Helton begins the year with the hottest seat in college football.  He better win the BYU game in Provo, or who knows?  He could be met with his pink slip on the airport tarmac.  The Trojans’ schedule is a nightmare for a coach on the hot seat.  As if playing nine tough conference games isn’t enough, USC’s out-of-conference slate includes Fresno State, BYU, and Notre Dame.  If the Trojans go 2-1 in these games and then go 7-2 in the Pac-12 to win the South Division flag, Helton might keep his job.  Anything less, and Athletics Director Lynn Swann will have to make a move, assuming he still has his job.  Just remember, it only takes Urban Meyer one year to feel healthy enough to coach again.  There are also excellent options in Chris Peterson, Matt Campbell, Dino Babers, and even a current NFL coach.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Oregon

J. T. Daniels, USC

K.J. Costello, Stanford

Khalil Tate, Arizona

Keep eyes on Washington’s Jacob Eason and Washington State’s Gage Gebrud.

 

Top Offense

Oregon

Utah

Washington

 

Top Defense

California

Utah

Oregon

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Big 12 Conference–Oklahoma loses Heisman Trophy quarterback Kyler Murray and replaces him with former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.  Will Hurts make a run at the hardware competing against his former teammate?

Can Texas build upon their progress made last year, or will Iowa State or Baylor emerge as the principle rival to the Sooners this year?

 

Advertisements

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 28, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Gonzaga	123.1	0.0	Florida St.	115.7	7.4
Tennessee	117.8	0.0	Purdue	117.6	0.2
Michigan	119.1	0.0	Texas Tech	118.4	0.7
Virginia	120.6	0.0	Oregon	111.2	9.4

 

Tonight’s Schedule

Team	Team	TIME (EDT)	TV	LOCATION
Florida St.	Gonzaga	7:09 PM	CBS	Anaheim
Purdue	Tennessee	7:29 PM	TBS	Louisville
Texas Tech	Michigan	9:39 PM	CBS	Anaheim
Oregon	Virginia	9:59 PM	TBS	Louisville

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Tennessee	117.9	0.0	Iowa	111.4	6.5
North Carolina	121.3	0.0	Washington	109.7	11.6
Duke	122.9	0.0	Central Florida	110.0	12.9
Texas Tech	118.0	0.0	Buffalo	115.2	2.8
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Liberty	107.3	8.2
Virginia	120.8	0.0	Oklahoma	111.4	9.4
Houston	115.3	0.0	Ohio St.	110.2	5.1
Oregon	110.8	0.0	UC Irvine	106.6	4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time	Game	Network	Site
12:10 PM	Tennessee vs. Iowa	CBS	Columbus
2:40 PM	North Carolina vs. Washington	CBS	Columbus
5:15 PM	Duke vs. Central Florida	CBS	Columbia
6:10 PM	Texas Tech vs. Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
7:10 PM	Virginia Tech vs. Liberty	TBS	San Jose
7:45 PM	Virginia vs. Oklahoma	TruTV	Columbia
8:40 PM	Houston vs. Ohio St.	TNT	Tulsa
9:40 PM	Oregon vs. UC-Irvine	TBS	San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Saturday, March 16, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Vermont	105.6	3.0	Maryland Baltimore Co.	96.2	12.4
Memphis	107.1	3.0	Houston	115.4	-5.3
Cincinnati	110.3	0.0	Wichita St.	103.9	6.4
Rhode Island	102.0	0.0	St. Bonaventure	102.3	-0.3
Davidson	106.3	0.0	Saint Louis	102.9	3.4
Duke	123.2	0.5	Florida St.	115.0	8.7
Kansas	114.9	1.5	Iowa St.	114.3	2.1
Seton Hall	108.6	0.5	Villanova	113.1	-4.0
Montana	101.6	0.0	Eastern Washington	96.6	5.0
Wisconsin	115.4	0.5	Michigan St.	120.3	-4.4
Minnesota	110.0	0.0	Michigan	118.7	-8.7
UC-Irvine	105.6	0.0	Cal St. Fullerton	99.0	6.6
Old Dominion	103.4	0.0	Western Kentucky	103.3	0.1
Harvard	102.9	0.0	Penn	102.3	0.6
Yale	106.0	2.5	Princeton	99.3	9.2
Buffalo	115.3	0.0	Bowling Green	104.5	10.8
Norfolk St.	94.3	0.0	North Carolina Central	92.3	2.0
San Diego St.	102.7	0.0	Utah St.	108.6	-5.9
Washington	109.5	0.0	Oregon	109.7	-0.2
Abilene Christian	101.1	0.0	New Orleans	94.6	6.5
Florida	111.4	0.0	Auburn	115.0	-3.6
Kentucky	118.0	0.0	Tennessee	118.5	-0.5
UT-Arlington	100.8	0.0	Georgia Southern	95.9	4.9
Georgia St.	103.2	0.0	Texas St.	102.8	0.4
Prairie View A&M	96.5	0.0	Texas Southern	97.1	-0.6
New Mexico St.	108.1	0.0	Grand Canyon	105.1	3.0

 

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

At Vermont

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Vermont (26-6)	3	Maryland-Baltimore Co. (21-12)

 

 

American Athletic Conference
Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Houston	84	Connecticut	45
Memphis	79	Central Florida	55
Cincinnati	82	SMU	74
Wichita St.	80	Temple	74

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Houston (30-2)	5	Memphis (21-12)
2	Cincinnati (26-6)	6	Wichita St. (19-13)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference
Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Rhode Island	75	VCU	70
St. Bonaventure	68	George Mason	57
Davidson	70	Saint Joseph’s	60
Saint Louis	64	Dayton	55

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Rhode Island (18-14)	4	St. Bonaventure (17-15)
2	Davidson (24-8)	6	Saint Louis (21-12)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Florida St.	69	Virginia	59
Duke	74	North Carolina	73

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
5	Florida St. (27-6)	3	Duke (28-5)

 

 

Big 12 Conference
Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Iowa St.	63	Kansas St.	59
Kansas	88	West Virginia	74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
5	Iowa St. (22-11)	3	Kansas (25-8)

 

 

Big East Conference
Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Villanova	71	Xavier	67 ot
Seton Hall	81	Marquette	79

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Villanova (24-9)	3	Seton Hall (20-12)

 

 

Big Sky Conference
Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Montana	78	Weber St.	49
Eastern Washington	77	Southern Utah	61

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Montana (25-8)	3	Eastern Washington (16-17)

 

Big Ten Conference
Site: United Center, Chicago, IL
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Michigan St.	77	Ohio St.	70
Wisconsin	66	Nebraska	62
Minnesota	75	Purdue	73
Michigan	74	Iowa	53

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Michigan St. (26-6)	4	Wisconsin (23-9)
7	Minnesota (21-12)	3	Michigan (27-5)

 

 

Big West Conference
Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
UC-Irvine	75	Long Beach St.	67
Cal St. Fulerton	64	UC Santa Barbara	58

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	UC Irvine (29-5)	3	Cal St. Fullerton (16-16)

 

 

Conference USA
Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Old Dominion	61	UAB	59
Western Kentucky	70	Southern Miss.	59

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Old Dominion (25-8)	2	Western Kentucky (20-13)

 

Ivy League (Ivy Madness)
Site: John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT (Yale)
Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Harvard (17-10)	4	Penn (19-11)
2	Yale (20-7)	3	Princeton (16-11)

 

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)
Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Buffalo	85	Central Michigan	81
Bowling Green	71	Northern Illinois	67

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Buffalo (30-3)	3	Bowling Green (22-11)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference
Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
UNC Central	65	North Carolina A&T	63
Norfolk St.	75	Howard	69

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Norfolk St. (21-12)	3	North Carolina Central (17-15)

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
San Diego St.	65	Nevada	56
Utah St.	85	Fresno St.	60

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
4	San Diego St. (21-11)	2	Utah St. (27-6)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Washington	66	Colorado	61
Oregon	79	Arizona St.	75 ot

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Washington (26-7)	6	Oregon (22-12)

 

 

Southland Conference
Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
New Orleans	79	Sam Houston St.	76
Abilene Christian	69	Southeastern Louisiana	66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	New Orleans (19-12)	2	Abilene Christian (26-6)

 

 

Southeastern Conference
Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Florida	76	LSU	73
Auburn	73	South Carolina	64
Kentucky	73	Alabama	55
Tennessee	83	Mississippi St.	76

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Florida (19-14)	5	Auburn (24-9)
2	Kentucky (27-5)	3	Tennessee (28-4)

 

 

Sun Belt Conference
Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA
Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Georgia Southern	81	Louisiana Monroe	67
Texas St.	79	South Alabama	67

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	UT Arlington (16-15)	3	Georgia Southern (21-11)
1	Georgia St. (22-9)	4	Texas St. (24-8)

 

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference
Site: at Higher Seeds
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Prairie View A&M	81	Grambling	71
Texas Southern	80	Alabama St.	66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Prairie View A&M (22-12)	2	Texas Southern (21-12)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
New Mexico St.	79	UT RGV	72
Grand Canyon	78	New Mexico St.	74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	New Mexico St. (29-4)	3	Grand Canyon (20-12)

 

 

Automatic Bids To Date

Team	Conf	W-L
Liberty	Atlantic Sun	28-6
Gardner-Webb	Big South	23-11
Murray St.	Ohio Valley	27-4
Bradley	Missouri Valley	20-14
Wofford	Southern	29-4
Iona	Metro Atlantic	17-15
Fairleigh-Dickinson	Northeast	20-13
Northern Kentucky	Horizon	26-8
Northeastern	Colonial	23-10
Saint Mary’s	West Coast	22-11
North Dakota St.	Summit	18-15
Colgate	Patriot	24-10

 

The PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Convene

The PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus have gathered (if only electronically) is our bunkers, otherwise known as our man caves and woman caves watching multiple games simultaneously to get better familiar with all the teams still trying to Dance.

Tonight, we will begin putting our opinions together to formulate our final Bracketology selections for Sunday afternoon.  We will publish our initial predicted 68 around 2 PM EDT on Sunday and then a final prediction at the conclusion of the last meaningful conference tournament championship game, if one might affect the seedings.

At the moment, there are games that could wildly swing the bottom of the seed line, affecting who plays in the First Four, and there are a couple of potenial bid-stealers still alive.

Here is our planned schedule for the weekend

Saturday late morning: Bracketology number 1 (Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday morning: Bracketology number 2 (Again, Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday early afternoon: Bracket Gurus Initial Field of 68 Predictions

Sunday late afternoon: Bracket Gurus Final Field of 68 Predictions (if necessary)

Note: The Captain and the Gurus are making their selections trying to predict what the Selection Committee will do and not by using their own opinions of which 68 teams should be in the field.  One of out methods will include trying to predict political biases of the Committee members.  By political, we don’t mean Liberal vs. Conservative.  We mean Power Conference vs. Mid-Major and Low-Major, or in other words, why State U at 18-16 will beat out Tiny Tech at 29-5 that lost in their conference championship game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, March 15, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Houston	114.9	0.0	Connecticut	105.1	9.8
Memphis	106.7	3.0	Central Florida	110.3	-0.6
Cincinnati	110.3	0.0	SMU	103.1	7.2
Temple	106.8	0.0	Wichita St.	104.7	2.1
Virginia Commonwealth	111.3	0.0	Rhode Island	103.0	8.3
St. Bonaventure	102.6	0.0	George Mason	100.7	1.9
Davidson	106.3	0.0	Saint Joseph’s	99.2	7.1
Dayton	107.9	0.0	Saint Louis	102.8	5.1
Virginia	122.1	0.0	Florida St.	113.4	8.7
North Carolina	121.8	0.0	Duke	123.5	-1.7
Kansas St.	112.9	1.0	Iowa St.	113.6	0.3
Kansas	114.9	2.0	West Virginia	105.7	11.2
Villanova	112	0.0	Xavier	106.0	6.0
Seton Hall	108.6	1.0	Marquette	113.0	-3.4
Montana	101.6	0.0	Weber St.	97.4	4.2
Southern Utah	93.4	0.0	Eastern Washington	95.2	-1.8
Michigan St.	120.9	0.0	Ohio St.	110.5	10.4
Wisconsin	115.4	1.0	Nebraska	111.7	4.7
Purdue	117.5	0.0	Minnesota	109.2	8.3
Michigan	118.3	0.0	Iowa	111.6	6.7
UC-Irvine	105.6	0.0	Long Beach St.	97.1	8.5
UC Santa Barbara	99.8	0.0	Cal St. Fullerton	98.3	1.5
Old Dominion	103.4	0.0	UAB	100.3	3.1
Western Kentucky	103.4	0.0	Southern Miss.	104.0	-0.6
Buffalo	115.3	0.0	Central Michigan	103.2	12.1
Northern Illinois	102.6	0.0	Bowling Green	104.1	-1.5
North Carolina A&T	92.5	0.0	North Carolina Central	92.6	-0.1
Norfolk St.	94.3	0.0	Howard	91.1	3.2
Nevada	113.9	1.0	San Diego St.	103.3	11.6
Utah St.	110.6	0.0	Fresno St.	108.5	2.1
Washington	109.5	0.0	Colorado	107.0	2.5
Arizona St.	107.9	0.0	Oregon	109.7	-1.8
Sam Houston St.	99.7	0.0	New Orleans	94.7	5.0
Abilene Christian	101.1	0.0	Southeastern Louisiana	95.7	5.4
LSU	114.8	0.0	Florida	112.9	1.9
South Carolina	106.9	0.0	Auburn	115.3	-8.4
Kentucky	118.0	0.0	Alabama	108.2	9.8
Tennessee	119.0	1.0	Mississippi St.	114.0	6.0
Georgia Southern	104.7	0.0	Louisiana Monroe	102.3	2.4
Texas St.	103.0	0.0	South Alabama	97.4	5.6
Prairie View A&M	96.5	0.0	Grambling	94.1	2.4
Texas Southern	96.6	0.0	Alabama St.	89.0	7.6
New Mexico St.	108.1	0.0	UT Rio Grande Valley	98.7	9.4
Utah Valley	105.1	0.0	Grand Canyon	105.6	-0.5

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference
Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN
First Round–Thursday, March 14
Connecticut	80	South Florida	73
Memphis	83	Tulane	68
SMU	74	Tulsa	65
Wichita St.	73	East Carolina	57

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Houston (29-2)	9	Connecticut (16-16)
4	Central Florida (23-7)	5/12	Memphis (20-12)
2	Cincinnati (25-6)	10	SMU (15-16)
3	Temple (23-8)	6	Wichita St. (18-13)

Atlantic 10 Conference
Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Rhode Island	76	La Salle	57
George Mason	61	George Washington	57
Saint Joseph’s	92	Duquesne	86
Saint Louis	71	Richmond	68

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Virginia Commonwealth (25-6)	8	Rhode Island (17-14)
4	St. Bonaventure (16-15)	5	George Mason (18-14)
2	Davidson (23-8)	10	Saint Joseph’s (14-18)
3	Dayton (21-10)	6	Saint Louis (20-12)

Atlantic Coast Conference
Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Virginia	76	North Carolina St.	56
Florida St.	65	Virginia Tech	63 ot
North Carolina	83	Louisville	70
Duke	84	Syracuse	72

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Virginia (29-2)	5	Florida St. (26-6)
2	North Carolina (27-5)	3	Duke (27-5)

Big 12 Conference
Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Kansas St.	70	TCU	61
Iowa St.	83	Baylor	66
West Virginia	79	Texas Tech	74
Kansas	65	Texas	57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Kansas St. (25-7)	5	Iowa St. (21-11)
10	West Virginia (14-19)	3	Kansas (24-8)

Big East Conference
Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Villanova	73	Providence	62
Xavier	63	Creighton	61
Marquette	86	St. John’s	54
Seton Hall	73	Georgetown	57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Villanova (23-9)	4	Xavier (17-14)
2	Marquette (24-8)	3	Seton Hall (19-12)

Big Sky Conference
Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Montana	79	Sacramento St.	73
Weber St.	81	Portland St.	71
Southern Utah	83	Northern Colorado	63
Eastern Washington	90	Montana St.	84

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Montana (24-8)	4	Weber St. (18-14)
7	Southern Utah (16-15)	3	Eastern Washington (15-17)

Big Ten Conference
Site: United Center, Chicago, IL
Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Ohio St.	79	Indiana	75
Nebraska	69	Maryland	61
Minnesota	77	Penn St.	72 ot
Iowa	83	Illinois	62

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Michigan St. (25-6)	8	Ohio St. (19-13)
4	Wisconsin (22-9)	13	Nebraska (18-15)
2	Purdue (23-8)	7	Minnesota (20-12)
3	Michigan (26-5)	6	Iowa (22-10)

Big West Conference
Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
UC-Irvine	63	Cal St. Riverside	44
Long Beach St.	68	Hawaii	66
Cal St. Fullerton	75	UC Davis	71 ot
UC Santa Barbara	71	Cal St. Northridge	68

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	UC Irvine (28-5)	5	Long Beach St. (15-18)
2	UC Santa Barbara (22-9)	3	Cal St. Fullerton (15-16)

Conference USA
Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Old Dominion	57	Louisiana Tech	56
UAB	85	UTSA	76
Western Kentucky	67	North Texas	51
Southern Miss.	82	Marshall	73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Old Dominion (24-8)	5	UAB (20-13)
2	Western Kentucky (19-13)	3	Southern Miss. (20-11)

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)
Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Buffalo	82	Akron	46
Central Michigan	89	Kent St.	81
Northern Illinois	80	Toledo	76
Bowling Green	99	Ball St.	86

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Buffalo (29-3)	5	Central Michigan (23-10)
7	Northern Illinois (27-16)	3	Bowling Green (21-11)

Mideastern Athletic Conference
Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
UNC Central	75	Delaware St.	57
Howard	80	Bethune-Cookman	71
North Carolina A&T	82	Coppin St.	79 ot
Norfolk St.	78	South Carolina St.	73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	North Carolina A&T (19-12)	3	North Carolina Central (16-15)
1	Norfolk St. (20-12)	4	Howard (17-15)

Mountain West Conference
Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Nevada	77	Boise St.	69
San Diego St.	63	UNLV	55
Utah St.	91	New Mexico	83
Fresno St.	76	Air Force	50

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
1	Nevada (29-3)	4	San Diego St. (20-11)
2	Utah St. (26-6)	3	Fresno St. (22-8)

Pac-12 Conference
Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Washington	78	USC	75
Colorado	73	Oregon St.	58
Arizona St.	83	UCLA	72
Oregon	66	Utah	54

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Washington (25-7)	5	Colorado (21-11)
2	Arizona St. (22-9)	6	Oregon (21-12)

Southland Conference
Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
New Orleans	76	Lamar	72
Southeastern Louisiana	79	Central Arkansas	65

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Sam Houston St. (21-10)	4	New Orleans (18-12)
2	Abilene Christian (25-6)	3	Southeastern Louisiana (17-15)

Southeastern Conference
Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Florida	66	Arkansas	50
Auburn	81	Missouri	71
Alabama	62	Ole Miss	57
Mississippi St.	80	Texas A&M	54

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	LSU (26-5)	8	Florida (18-14)
4	South Carolina (16-15)	5	Auburn (23-9)
2	Kentucky (26-5)	10	Alabama (18-14)
3	Tennessee (27-4)	6	Mississippi St. (23-9)

Sun Belt Conference
Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA
Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Louisiana Monroe	80	Coastal Carolina	50
South Alabama	70	Louisiana	69

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
3	Georgia Southern (20-11)	7	Louisiana Monroe (18-14)
4	Texas St. (23-8)	8	South Alabama (17-16)

Southwestern Athletic Conference
Site: at Higher Seeds
Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 12
Prairie View A&M	86	Alcorn St.	66
Grambling	59	Arkansas Pine Bluff	52
Alabama St.	58	Jackson St.	49
Texas Southern	80	Southern	70

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Prairie View A&M (21-12)	4	Grambling (17-15)
2	Texas Southern (20-12)	6	Alabama St. (12-18)

Western Athletic Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
New Mexico St.	86	Chicago St.	49
UT RGV	85	Cal St. Bakersfield	70
Grand Canyon	84	Seattle	75
Utah Valley	70	UM Kansas City	64

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	New Mexico St. (28-4)	4	UT Rio Grande Valley (19-15)
2	Utah Valley (24-8)	3/6	Grand Canyon (19-12)

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 5-6, 2019

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings For Power Conferences & Top 25

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Virginia Tech	Boston College	16.1
Pittsburgh	North Carolina	-9.3
Notre Dame	Syracuse	-0.4
Georgia Tech	Wake Forest	6.5
Virginia	Florida St.	9.5
Duke	Clemson	16.7
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	11.1
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	10.6
TCU	Baylor	6.7
Iowa St.	Kansas	0.3
Texas	West Virginia	5.6
Butler	Creighton	1.1
Georgetown	St. John’s	-1.6
Providence	Villanova	-3.1
Ohio St.	Michigan St.	-2.4
Rutgers	Maryland	-3.8
Arizona	Utah	9.1
UCLA	California	12.0
Arizona St.	Colorado	5.3
Oregon	Oregon St.	6.3
Washington	Washington St.	11.0
Alabama	Kentucky	-3.9
Tennessee	Georgia	13.2
Texas A&M	Arkansas	0.6
Florida	South Carolina	12.7
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	1.8
Gonzaga	Santa Clara	25.8
New Mexico	Nevada	-12.0

 

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Marquette	Xavier	7.5
DePaul	Seton Hall	-2.7
Northwestern	Illinois	7.2
Wichita St.	Temple	-0.9
Michigan	Indiana	6.4
Iowa	Nebraska	-2.2
Houston	Memphis	8.6
Louisville	Miami (Fla)	4.7
Penn St.	Wisconsin	-2.6
USC	Stanford	5.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 1 to 353

Rk	Team	PiRate
1	Duke	123.3
2	Gonzaga	119.3
3	Virginia	118.6
4	Michigan St.	118.3
5	North Carolina	117.9
6	Virginia Tech	116.7
7	Kansas	116.3
8	Nevada	115.9
9	Tennessee	115.6
10	Auburn	115.6
11	Michigan	115.6
12	Texas Tech	115.6
13	Nebraska	114.7
14	Kentucky	114.5
15	North Carolina St.	114.5
16	Iowa St.	113.6
17	Purdue	113.5
18	Wisconsin	113.1
19	Florida St.	113.1
20	Ohio St.	112.9
21	Oklahoma	112.8
22	Mississippi St.	112.7
23	Cincinnati	112.7
24	Florida	112.7
25	Villanova	112.2
26	Indiana	112.2
27	Buffalo	111.9
28	TCU	111.8
29	Creighton	111.5
30	Texas	111.1
31	Houston	111.1
32	Maryland	110.9
33	Marquette	110.8
34	Syracuse	110.7
35	Clemson	110.6
36	St. John’s	110.2
37	Louisville	110.0
38	UCF	109.5
39	LSU	109.5
40	Iowa	109.5
41	Oregon	109.4
42	Saint Mary’s	109.4
43	Wofford	109.1
44	Butler	109.1
45	San Francisco	109.0
46	Seton Hall	108.8
47	Northwestern	108.8
48	Mississippi	108.6
49	Kansas St.	108.5
50	West Virginia	108.5
51	Utah St.	108.5
52	Arizona	108.4
53	Miami FL	108.3
54	Lipscomb	108.2
55	Toledo	108.2
56	Arizona St.	108.1
57	Baylor	108.1
58	Penn St.	108.0
59	Minnesota	107.9
60	Fresno St.	107.9
61	Alabama	107.6
62	Washington	107.6
63	Murray St.	107.4
64	Vanderbilt	107.4
65	Arkansas	107.3
66	Temple	107.1
67	VCU	106.9
68	Notre Dame	106.8
69	Providence	106.6
70	Ball St.	106.5
71	UCLA	106.4
72	Dayton	106.3
73	Xavier	106.3
74	Hofstra	106.2
75	Loyola Chicago	106.2
76	Missouri	106.1
77	New Mexico St.	105.9
78	BYU	105.9
79	South Dakota St.	105.9
80	Liberty	105.9
81	Colorado	105.8
82	Yale	105.7
83	SMU	105.7
84	Belmont	105.7
85	Oregon St.	105.6
86	Pittsburgh	105.6
87	USC	105.6
88	Georgetown	105.6
89	East Tennessee St.	105.5
90	Georgia	105.4
91	UNC Greensboro	105.4
92	Old Dominion	105.3
93	Connecticut	105.3
94	Davidson	105.2
95	Western Kentucky	105.2
96	Georgia Tech	105.1
97	Memphis	105.0
98	Texas A&M	104.9
99	Montana	104.8
100	San Diego	104.7
101	Saint Louis	104.7
102	Oklahoma St.	104.7
103	Rutgers	104.6
104	Rhode Island	104.4
105	Georgia St.	104.3
106	UC Irvine	104.3
107	Harvard	104.2
108	Vermont	104.2
109	San Diego St.	104.1
110	Akron	104.1
111	Illinois	104.1
112	Boston College	104.1
113	Furman	104.0
114	Penn	103.8
115	North Texas	103.8
116	DePaul	103.6
117	Grand Canyon	103.6
118	Texas St.	103.6
119	South Carolina	103.5
120	Northeastern	103.5
121	Northern Kentucky	103.5
122	Wichita St.	103.2
123	Georgia Southern	103.1
124	Louisiana Tech	102.8
125	Tulsa	102.8
126	Austin Peay	102.7
127	Boise St.	102.5
128	Marshall	102.5
129	Jacksonville St.	102.5
130	UCSB	102.4
131	Southern Illinois	102.4
132	Stanford	102.4
133	Utah	102.3
134	Radford	102.3
135	Saint Joseph’s	102.2
136	Utah Valley	102.2
137	Brown	102.0
138	Drake	101.9
139	Loyola Marymount	101.8
140	George Mason	101.7
141	Rider	101.5
142	Bucknell	101.5
143	Kent St.	101.5
144	Gardner Webb	101.5
145	Charleston	101.4
146	UMass	101.3
147	Winthrop	101.1
148	Northern Colorado	101.1
149	Wake Forest	101.1
150	UNLV	100.8
151	Lehigh	100.8
152	Holy Cross	100.7
153	Seattle	100.6
154	Weber St.	100.6
155	Richmond	100.5
156	Northern Illinois	100.5
157	Stony Brook	100.5
158	Louisiana	100.5
159	Louisiana Monroe	100.4
160	Samford	100.3
161	Miami OH	100.3
162	St. Bonaventure	100.1
163	Purdue Fort Wayne	100.1
164	Cal St. Fullerton	100.1
165	South Florida	100.1
166	NJIT	100.1
167	Southern Miss	100.1
168	Coastal Carolina	100.0
169	Wright St.	99.9
170	New Mexico	99.9
171	Ohio	99.6
172	Indiana St.	99.6
173	Central Michigan	99.5
174	Green Bay	99.5
175	Abilene Christian	99.4
176	Colgate	99.4
177	Duquesne	99.4
178	Princeton	99.3
179	Valparaiso	99.3
180	Mercer	99.2
181	Washington St.	99.1
182	UAB	99.1
183	Charleston Southern	99.1
184	Pacific	99.0
185	Illinois St.	99.0
186	Evansville	98.8
187	Bowling Green	98.7
188	Missouri St.	98.6
189	Cal St. Bakersfield	98.4
190	Bradley	98.4
191	Troy	98.4
192	American	98.4
193	IUPUI	98.4
194	The Citadel	98.2
195	Omaha	98.2
196	Hartford	98.1
197	Appalachian St.	98.1
198	Pepperdine	98.0
199	Texas Southern	97.9
200	South Dakota	97.9
201	Fordham	97.9
202	Northern Iowa	97.7
203	California Baptist	97.7
204	Western Michigan	97.7
205	Hawaii	97.6
206	North Dakota St.	97.6
207	Wagner	97.6
208	Eastern Michigan	97.6
209	Santa Clara	97.5
210	Iona	97.5
211	Florida International	97.5
212	Stephen F. Austin	97.5
213	William & Mary	97.4
214	Dartmouth	97.4
215	Boston University	97.2
216	Oakland	97.1
217	South Alabama	97.1
218	Lamar	97.1
219	UTSA	97.0
220	North Florida	97.0
221	Illinois Chicago	97.0
222	California	96.9
223	Canisius	96.9
224	Long Beach St.	96.8
225	St. Francis PA	96.8
226	Columbia	96.7
227	Presbyterian	96.6
228	UNC Wilmington	96.5
229	Florida Atlantic	96.5
230	Hampton	96.4
231	Detroit	96.3
232	Idaho St.	96.3
233	Campbell	96.2
234	High Point	96.1
235	Delaware	96.0
236	UMBC	95.9
237	Fairfield	95.9
238	Marist	95.8
239	Colorado St.	95.7
240	UMass Lowell	95.6
241	Florida Gulf Coast	95.5
242	LIU Brooklyn	95.5
243	Little Rock	95.5
244	Fairleigh Dickinson	95.5
245	La Salle	95.5
246	Quinnipiac	95.4
247	UC Davis	95.4
248	UTEP	95.3
249	Towson	95.3
250	Drexel	95.3
251	Sacramento St.	95.2
252	Cornell	95.2
253	UMKC	95.0
254	Eastern Kentucky	95.0
255	Robert Morris	94.9
256	Arkansas St.	94.9
257	Morehead St.	94.8
258	Army	94.8
259	Albany	94.8
260	Sam Houston St.	94.8
261	UT Arlington	94.8
262	Siena	94.8
263	Niagara	94.8
264	UT Rio Grande Valley	94.7
265	Western Illinois	94.6
266	James Madison	94.4
267	Houston Baptist	94.3
268	East Carolina	94.3
269	Milwaukee	94.3
270	Tulane	94.2
271	George Washington	94.2
272	Air Force	94.2
273	Middle Tennessee	94.1
274	Saint Peter’s	94.1
275	Cleveland St.	94.0
276	Norfolk St.	94.0
277	North Carolina Central	94.0
278	Nicholls St.	93.9
279	Grambling St.	93.9
280	Eastern Washington	93.9
281	Longwood	93.8
282	St. Francis NY	93.8
283	Sacred Heart	93.8
284	Chattanooga	93.7
285	Portland St.	93.7
286	Southeast Missouri St.	93.6
287	Wyoming	93.6
288	North Dakota	93.4
289	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	93.3
290	Central Arkansas	93.2
291	Loyola MD	93.2
292	Jacksonville	93.1
293	Montana St.	93.1
294	Prairie View A&M	93.1
295	Eastern Illinois	93.0
296	Oral Roberts	92.8
297	Central Connecticut	92.7
298	Denver	92.7
299	Monmouth	92.6
300	UC Riverside	92.6
301	Tennessee St.	92.5
302	McNeese St.	92.5
303	Howard	92.3
304	Southern Utah	92.3
305	Lafayette	92.2
306	UT Martin	92.2
307	New Orleans	92.2
308	Portland	92.1
309	Rice	91.9
310	Navy	91.9
311	Southeastern Louisiana	91.8
312	Bethune Cookman	91.7
313	Charlotte	91.4
314	North Carolina A&T	91.4
315	Cal Poly	91.3
316	Youngstown St.	91.2
317	Cal St. Northridge	91.2
318	Idaho	90.9
319	Northern Arizona	90.8
320	Western Carolina	90.7
321	Binghamton	90.6
322	Morgan St.	90.4
323	Manhattan	90.3
324	USC Upstate	90.2
325	Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.1
326	Maine	90.1
327	VMI	90.1
328	Elon	90.1
329	Mount St. Mary’s	90.0
330	SIU Edwardsville	90.0
331	Alabama St.	89.9
332	Bryant	89.7
333	Tennessee Tech	89.6
334	North Alabama	89.4
335	San Jose St.	89.3
336	South Carolina St.	88.9
337	New Hampshire	88.6
338	Southern	88.4
339	Jackson St.	88.1
340	Florida A&M	88.1
341	Kennesaw St.	87.1
342	Stetson	87.1
343	Incarnate Word	86.6
344	Alcorn St.	86.4
345	Northwestern St.	85.6
346	UNC Asheville	85.0
347	Maryland Eastern Shore	84.5
348	Coppin St.	84.5
349	Alabama A&M	84.3
350	Mississippi Valley St.	83.9
351	Savannah St.	83.6
352	Chicago St.	82.0
353	Delaware St.	81.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conferences

American Athletic	PiRate Rating
Cincinnati	112.7
Houston	111.1
UCF	109.5
Temple	107.1
SMU	105.7
Connecticut	105.3
Memphis	105.0
Wichita St.	103.2
Tulsa	102.8
South Florida	100.1
East Carolina	94.3
Tulane	94.2
American East	PiRate Rating
Vermont	104.2
Stony Brook	100.5
Hartford	98.1
UMBC	95.9
UMass Lowell	95.6
Albany	94.8
Binghamton	90.6
Maine	90.1
New Hampshire	88.6
Atlantic 10	PiRate Rating
VCU	106.9
Dayton	106.3
Davidson	105.2
Saint Louis	104.7
Rhode Island	104.4
Saint Joseph’s	102.2
George Mason	101.7
UMass	101.3
Richmond	100.5
St. Bonaventure	100.1
Duquesne	99.4
Fordham	97.9
La Salle	95.5
George Washington	94.2
Atlantic Coast	PiRate Rating
Duke	123.3
Virginia	118.6
North Carolina	117.9
Virginia Tech	116.7
North Carolina St.	114.5
Florida St.	113.1
Syracuse	110.7
Clemson	110.6
Louisville	110.0
Miami FL	108.3
Notre Dame	106.8
Pittsburgh	105.6
Georgia Tech	105.1
Boston College	104.1
Wake Forest	101.1
Atlantic Sun	PiRate Rating
Lipscomb	108.2
Liberty	105.9
NJIT	100.1
North Florida	97.0
Florida Gulf Coast	95.5
Jacksonville	93.1
North Alabama	89.4
Kennesaw St.	87.1
Stetson	87.1
Big 12	PiRate Rating
Kansas	116.3
Texas Tech	115.6
Iowa St.	113.6
Oklahoma	112.8
TCU	111.8
Texas	111.1
Kansas St.	108.5
West Virginia	108.5
Baylor	108.1
Oklahoma St.	104.7
Big East	PiRate Rating
Villanova	112.2
Creighton	111.5
Marquette	110.8
St. John’s	110.2
Butler	109.1
Seton Hall	108.8
Providence	106.6
Xavier	106.3
Georgetown	105.6
DePaul	103.6
Big Sky	PiRate Rating
Montana	104.8
Northern Colorado	101.1
Weber St.	100.6
Idaho St.	96.3
Sacramento St.	95.2
Eastern Washington	93.9
Portland St.	93.7
Montana St.	93.1
Southern Utah	92.3
Idaho	90.9
Northern Arizona	90.8
Big South	PiRate Rating
Radford	102.3
Gardner Webb	101.5
Winthrop	101.1
Charleston Southern	99.1
Presbyterian	96.6
Hampton	96.4
Campbell	96.2
High Point	96.1
Longwood	93.8
USC Upstate	90.2
UNC Asheville	85.0
Big Ten	PiRate Rating
Michigan St.	118.3
Michigan	115.6
Nebraska	114.7
Purdue	113.5
Wisconsin	113.1
Ohio St.	112.9
Indiana	112.2
Maryland	110.9
Iowa	109.5
Northwestern	108.8
Penn St.	108.0
Minnesota	107.9
Rutgers	104.6
Illinois	104.1
Big West	PiRate Rating
UC Irvine	104.3
UCSB	102.4
Cal St. Fullerton	100.1
Hawaii	97.6
Long Beach St.	96.8
UC Davis	95.4
UC Riverside	92.6
Cal Poly	91.3
Cal St. Northridge	91.2
Colonial Athletic	PiRate Rating
Hofstra	106.2
Northeastern	103.5
Charleston	101.4
William & Mary	97.4
UNC Wilmington	96.5
Delaware	96.0
Towson	95.3
Drexel	95.3
James Madison	94.4
Elon	90.1
Conference USA	PiRate Rating
Old Dominion	105.3
Western Kentucky	105.2
North Texas	103.8
Louisiana Tech	102.8
Marshall	102.5
Southern Miss	100.1
UAB	99.1
Florida International	97.5
UTSA	97.0
Florida Atlantic	96.5
UTEP	95.3
Middle Tennessee	94.1
Rice	91.9
Charlotte	91.4
Horizon	PiRate Rating
Northern Kentucky	103.5
Wright St.	99.9
Green Bay	99.5
IUPUI	98.4
Oakland	97.1
Illinois Chicago	97.0
Detroit	96.3
Milwaukee	94.3
Cleveland St.	94.0
Youngstown St.	91.2
Ivy	PiRate Rating
Yale	105.7
Harvard	104.2
Penn	103.8
Brown	102.0
Princeton	99.3
Dartmouth	97.4
Columbia	96.7
Cornell	95.2
Metro Atlantic	PiRate Rating
Rider	101.5
Iona	97.5
Canisius	96.9
Fairfield	95.9
Marist	95.8
Quinnipiac	95.4
Siena	94.8
Niagara	94.8
Saint Peter’s	94.1
Monmouth	92.6
Manhattan	90.3
Mid-American	PiRate Rating
Buffalo	111.9
Toledo	108.2
Ball St.	106.5
Akron	104.1
Kent St.	101.5
Northern Illinois	100.5
Miami OH	100.3
Ohio	99.6
Central Michigan	99.5
Bowling Green	98.7
Western Michigan	97.7
Eastern Michigan	97.6
Mideastern Athletic	PiRate Rating
Norfolk St.	94.0
North Carolina Central	94.0
Howard	92.3
Bethune Cookman	91.7
North Carolina A&T	91.4
Morgan St.	90.4
South Carolina St.	88.9
Florida A&M	88.1
Maryland Eastern Shore	84.5
Coppin St.	84.5
Savannah St.	83.6
Delaware St.	81.6
Missouri Valley	PiRate Rating
Loyola Chicago	106.2
Southern Illinois	102.4
Drake	101.9
Indiana St.	99.6
Valparaiso	99.3
Illinois St.	99.0
Evansville	98.8
Missouri St.	98.6
Bradley	98.4
Northern Iowa	97.7
Mountain West	PiRate Rating
Nevada	115.9
Utah St.	108.5
Fresno St.	107.9
San Diego St.	104.1
Boise St.	102.5
UNLV	100.8
New Mexico	99.9
Colorado St.	95.7
Air Force	94.2
Wyoming	93.6
San Jose St.	89.3
Northeast	PiRate Rating
Wagner	97.6
St. Francis PA	96.8
LIU Brooklyn	95.5
Fairleigh Dickinson	95.5
Robert Morris	94.9
St. Francis NY	93.8
Sacred Heart	93.8
Central Connecticut	92.7
Mount St. Mary’s	90.0
Bryant	89.7
Ohio Valley	PiRate Rating
Murray St.	107.4
Belmont	105.7
Austin Peay	102.7
Jacksonville St.	102.5
Eastern Kentucky	95.0
Morehead St.	94.8
Southeast Missouri St.	93.6
Eastern Illinois	93.0
Tennessee St.	92.5
UT Martin	92.2
SIU Edwardsville	90.0
Tennessee Tech	89.6
Pac-12	PiRate Rating
Oregon	109.4
Arizona	108.4
Arizona St.	108.1
Washington	107.6
UCLA	106.4
Colorado	105.8
Oregon St.	105.6
USC	105.6
Stanford	102.4
Utah	102.3
Washington St.	99.1
California	96.9
Patriot	PiRate Rating
Bucknell	101.5
Lehigh	100.8
Holy Cross	100.7
Colgate	99.4
American	98.4
Boston University	97.2
Army	94.8
Loyola MD	93.2
Lafayette	92.2
Navy	91.9
Southeastern	PiRate Rating
Tennessee	115.6
Auburn	115.6
Kentucky	114.5
Mississippi St.	112.7
Florida	112.7
LSU	109.5
Mississippi	108.6
Alabama	107.6
Vanderbilt	107.4
Arkansas	107.3
Missouri	106.1
Georgia	105.4
Texas A&M	104.9
South Carolina	103.5
Southern	PiRate Rating
Wofford	109.1
East Tennessee St.	105.5
UNC Greensboro	105.4
Furman	104.0
Samford	100.3
Mercer	99.2
The Citadel	98.2
Chattanooga	93.7
Western Carolina	90.7
VMI	90.1
Southland	PiRate Rating
Abilene Christian	99.4
Stephen F. Austin	97.5
Lamar	97.1
Sam Houston St.	94.8
Houston Baptist	94.3
Nicholls St.	93.9
Texas A&M-CC	93.3
Central Arkansas	93.2
McNeese St.	92.5
New Orleans	92.2
Southeastern Louisiana	91.8
Incarnate Word	86.6
Northwestern St.	85.6
Southwestern Athletic	PiRate Rating
Texas Southern	97.9
Grambling St.	93.9
Prairie View A&M	93.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.1
Alabama St.	89.9
Southern	88.4
Jackson St.	88.1
Alcorn St.	86.4
Alabama A&M	84.3
Mississippi Valley St.	83.9
Summit	PiRate Rating
South Dakota St.	105.9
Purdue Fort Wayne	100.1
Omaha	98.2
South Dakota	97.9
North Dakota St.	97.6
Western Illinois	94.6
North Dakota	93.4
Oral Roberts	92.8
Denver	92.7
Sun Belt	PiRate Rating
Georgia St.	104.3
Texas St.	103.6
Georgia Southern	103.1
Louisiana	100.5
Louisiana Monroe	100.4
Coastal Carolina	100.0
Troy	98.4
Appalachian St.	98.1
South Alabama	97.1
Little Rock	95.5
Arkansas St.	94.9
UT Arlington	94.8
West Coast	PiRate Rating
Gonzaga	119.3
Saint Mary’s	109.4
San Francisco	109.0
BYU	105.9
San Diego	104.7
Loyola Marymount	101.8
Pacific	99.0
Pepperdine	98.0
Santa Clara	97.5
Portland	92.1
Western Athletic	PiRate Rating
New Mexico St.	105.9
Grand Canyon	103.6
Utah Valley	102.2
Seattle	100.6
Cal St. Bakersfield	98.4
California Baptist	97.7
UMKC	95.0
UT Rio Grande Valley	94.7
Chicago St.	82.0

 

Coming Monday or Tuesday: Our first look this season at our incredibly accurate Bracketology Gurus.  This group’s composite has picked 135 out of 136 teams in the NCAA Tournament in their two years of existence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	October 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas St.	Appalachian St.	-6.3	-6.6	-6.1

 

Thursday	October 11
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	Texas Tech	7.5	7.8	7.6
Texas St.	Georgia Southern	-17.3	-15.9	-18.5

 

Friday	October 12
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulsa	South Florida	-4.8	-8.0	-4.8
Utah	Arizona	15.0	14.9	15.3
San Diego St.	Air Force	10.9	10.7	12.2

 

Saturday	October 13
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Louisville	22.4	20.0	23.1
Virginia	Miami (Fla.)	-9.9	-8.1	-10.5
Eastern Michigan	Toledo	-1.7	-1.5	-0.8
South Carolina	Texas A&M	1.7	2.0	1.5
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana-Monroe	2.3	5.2	2.6
Illinois	Purdue	-11.6	-10.2	-12.1
Central Michigan	Ball St.	3.8	4.1	4.6
Georgia Tech	Duke	1.4	2.7	1.7
Maryland	Rutgers	22.8	22.3	23.8
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	-11.1	-11.3	-11.7
Charlotte	Western Kentucky	-7.0	-8.1	-8.3
East Carolina	Houston	-16.9	-17.7	-17.5
Buffalo	Akron	8.0	8.9	8.6
Old Dominion	Marshall	-6.6	-5.5	-7.8
Florida Int’l.	Middle Tennessee	0.6	3.4	0.2
Miami (O)	Kent St.	15.2	15.8	18.0
Utah St.	UNLV	23.9	23.7	24.8
Colorado St.	New Mexico	-1.5	-2.2	-1.7
Liberty	Troy	-9.3	-11.8	-10.8
Notre Dame	Pittsburgh	28.3	26.1	28.3
USC	Colorado	8.6	5.4	6.6
San Jose St.	Army	-21.7	-21.5	-23.7
Oregon	Washington	-7.7	-5.5	-8.5
Northern Illinois	Ohio U	5.3	5.0	4.7
UTSA	Louisiana Tech	-10.9	-8.8	-11.3
Bowling Green	Western Michigan	-9.1	-10.9	-10.2
Arkansas	Ole Miss	-0.3	-2.3	-1.5
Michigan	Wisconsin	9.6	10.9	10.3
Ohio St.	Minnesota	29.2	27.9	30.0
Navy	Temple	-8.5	-6.3	-10.0
Iowa St.	West Virginia	-0.5	-1.2	-0.2
North Texas	Southern Miss.	17.8	17.1	17.9
Northwestern	Nebraska	20.1	19.8	22.3
Indiana	Iowa	-11.4	-10.1	-10.9
Memphis	Central Florida	-10.2	-8.5	-9.9
Auburn	Tennessee	24.5	22.7	26.8
Texas	Baylor	13.3	13.9	13.4
Alabama	Missouri	28.3	27.8	28.9
Vanderbilt	Florida	-11.7	-9.6	-12.9
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.	-5.7	-5.4	-6.8
Rice	UAB	-20.8	-20.6	-23.2
LSU	Georgia	-13.1	-9.8	-13.1
Louisiana	New Mexico St.	5.7	5.8	6.3
Penn St.	Michigan St.	10.3	9.7	11.4
BYU	Hawaii	21.5	19.7	23.0
California	UCLA	13.8	11.5	15.6
Fresno St.	Wyoming	19.1	18.1	20.1
Nevada	Boise St.	-17.5	-17.1	-18.3

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
South Alabama	Alabama St.	29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.1	138.0	141.7	139.9
2	Clemson	133.6	131.0	134.1	132.9
3	Georgia	131.0	127.7	132.0	130.2
4	Ohio St.	128.7	126.6	129.2	128.2
5	Notre Dame	125.8	122.9	125.0	124.5
6	Washington	123.9	121.8	125.4	123.7
7	Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4
8	Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1
9	Oklahoma	119.4	118.0	119.7	119.0
10	Mississippi St.	119.6	117.1	120.3	119.0
11	Auburn	118.2	116.9	119.8	118.3
12	Miami	117.0	115.6	116.7	116.5
13	Wisconsin	117.2	114.5	116.7	116.1
14	Michigan St.	116.5	114.4	115.8	115.6
15	Central Florida	115.1	115.2	115.6	115.3
16	L S U	114.9	114.9	115.9	115.2
17	Missouri	114.8	113.2	115.8	114.6
18	Florida	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4
19	Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2
20	N. Carolina St.	114.2	113.6	114.1	114.0
21	West Virginia	114.5	113.6	113.8	113.9
22	Stanford	114.8	112.1	114.8	113.9
23	Utah	114.1	112.3	114.8	113.8
24	Boston College	114.5	111.9	114.1	113.5
25	Iowa	114.4	112.2	113.8	113.5
26	Oregon	113.2	113.2	113.9	113.4
27	Texas	113.9	112.6	113.6	113.3
28	Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2
29	Duke	114.1	111.8	113.5	113.2
30	Virginia Tech	113.1	112.2	112.9	112.7
31	T C U	113.2	112.2	112.0	112.4
32	Northwestern	112.8	111.1	113.0	112.3
33	Georgia Tech	112.4	111.5	112.2	112.1
34	S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.2	112.0
35	Boise St.	111.4	110.8	111.8	111.3
36	Oklahoma St.	111.7	109.9	111.7	111.1
37	Fresno St.	110.6	109.5	110.9	110.4
38	Iowa State	111.0	109.3	110.6	110.3
39	Syracuse	109.6	108.2	108.8	108.9
40	U S C	109.7	107.9	108.9	108.8
41	Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7
42	Texas Tech	108.7	107.3	107.4	107.8
43	Purdue	107.8	106.2	107.4	107.1
44	Arizona St.	107.6	106.3	107.2	107.0
45	Utah St.	106.1	107.4	107.5	107.0
46	Florida St.	107.1	106.5	106.8	106.8
47	California	107.3	104.8	106.7	106.3
48	Colorado	104.1	105.6	105.3	105.0
49	Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0
50	Virginia	104.1	104.6	103.2	104.0
51	Ole Miss	103.7	103.3	103.9	103.6
52	San Diego St.	102.8	103.1	103.9	103.2
53	Houston	102.9	103.5	103.1	103.2
54	Army	102.5	103.1	102.7	102.8
55	Memphis	101.9	103.7	102.7	102.8
56	Temple	102.4	102.4	103.3	102.7
57	Minnesota	102.5	101.7	102.2	102.1
58	Kansas St.	103.0	101.5	101.8	102.1
59	Wake Forest	103.5	101.1	101.2	101.9
60	Baylor	102.6	100.7	102.1	101.8
61	Arizona	102.2	100.5	102.5	101.7
62	N. Texas	99.6	102.0	100.4	100.6
63	Vanderbilt	100.4	100.8	100.3	100.5
64	BYU	99.9	100.2	100.5	100.2
65	Pittsburgh	100.4	99.8	99.6	100.0
66	Indiana	100.0	99.2	99.8	99.7
67	South Florida	98.6	100.8	98.9	99.4
68	Appalachian St.	98.4	100.1	99.9	99.4
69	Arkansas	100.4	97.9	99.4	99.2
70	Cincinnati	97.9	99.5	98.3	98.5
71	N. Carolina	99.0	97.9	98.2	98.4
72	Kansas	98.9	97.5	97.2	97.9
73	Buffalo	96.8	98.9	97.8	97.8
74	Toledo	97.4	98.5	97.1	97.7
75	Florida Atlantic	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4
76	Tennessee	96.7	97.1	96.0	96.6
77	U C L A	96.5	96.3	94.1	95.6
78	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.7	94.8	95.2
79	Air Force	94.9	95.4	94.7	95.0
80	Louisville	95.1	94.9	94.1	94.7
81	Nebraska	95.8	94.3	93.7	94.6
82	Wyoming	94.6	94.5	93.9	94.3
83	Tulane	94.2	94.6	94.0	94.3
84	Louisiana Tech	93.0	95.3	94.3	94.2
85	Illinois	94.2	94.0	93.4	93.9
86	Eastern Michigan	93.2	94.5	93.8	93.8
87	Marshall	92.5	95.0	93.3	93.6
88	U A B	92.3	94.7	92.9	93.3
89	Ohio U	92.6	93.8	93.1	93.2
90	Troy	92.1	93.6	93.6	93.1
91	Western Michigan	92.0	93.8	93.1	93.0
92	Miami (O)	91.6	93.3	94.0	93.0
93	Middle Tennessee	91.9	93.2	93.1	92.7
94	Akron	91.7	93.0	92.2	92.3
95	Navy	91.4	93.6	90.8	92.0
96	SMU	91.8	91.2	90.8	91.3
97	Florida Int’l.	89.5	93.6	90.3	91.1
98	Georgia Southern	90.0	91.6	90.8	90.8
99	Nevada	90.9	90.6	90.5	90.7
100	Tulsa	90.8	89.8	91.1	90.6
101	Arkansas St.	89.1	90.5	90.7	90.1
102	New Mexico	88.7	90.3	88.8	89.3
103	Central Michigan	85.4	87.9	85.9	86.4
104	Southern Miss.	84.7	87.8	85.5	86.0
105	U N L V	85.2	86.7	85.6	85.8
106	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.3	85.3	85.6
107	Oregon St.	86.6	84.2	84.8	85.2
108	Ball St.	84.1	86.4	83.8	84.8
109	Old Dominion	83.4	87.0	83.0	84.5
110	Colo. State	84.2	85.1	84.1	84.5
111	Massachusetts	83.2	85.1	84.1	84.1
112	Rutgers	85.0	84.0	83.1	84.0
113	East Carolina	83.0	82.8	82.6	82.8
114	Hawaii	82.4	84.5	81.5	82.8
115	U T S A	79.1	83.5	79.9	80.9
116	Bowling Green	80.4	80.5	80.4	80.4
117	Coastal Carolina	78.9	81.7	79.5	80.0
118	Georgia St.	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9
119	Louisiana	78.9	81.0	79.9	79.9
120	Liberty	79.8	78.8	79.8	79.5
121	UL-Monroe	79.1	79.0	79.4	79.2
122	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.5	79.1
123	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.8	77.0
124	N. Mexico St.	76.2	78.2	76.5	77.0
125	San Jose St.	77.3	78.1	75.5	77.0
126	Charlotte	74.6	76.8	74.5	75.3
127	Connecticut	73.3	73.6	71.9	72.9
128	U T E P	71.1	74.2	70.5	71.9
129	Texas State	70.2	73.2	69.8	71.1
130	Rice	69.0	71.6	67.2	69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	115.1	115.2	115.6	115.3	2-0	5-0
Temple	102.4	102.4	103.3	102.7	2-0	3-3
South Florida	98.6	100.8	98.9	99.4	1-0	5-0
Cincinnati	97.9	99.5	98.3	98.5	2-0	6-0
East Carolina	83.0	82.8	82.6	82.8	0-2	2-3
Connecticut	73.3	73.6	71.9	72.9	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	102.9	103.5	103.1	103.2	1-0	4-1
Memphis	101.9	103.7	102.7	102.8	1-2	4-2
Tulane	94.2	94.6	94.0	94.3	1-1	2-4
Navy	91.4	93.6	90.8	92.0	1-1	2-3
SMU	91.8	91.2	90.8	91.3	1-1	2-4
Tulsa	90.8	89.8	91.1	90.6	0-2	1-4
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.6	131.0	134.1	132.9	3-0	6-0
N. Carolina St.	114.2	113.6	114.1	114.0	1-0	5-0
Boston College	114.5	111.9	114.1	113.5	1-1	4-2
Syracuse	109.6	108.2	108.8	108.9	1-2	4-2
Florida St.	107.1	106.5	106.8	106.8	1-3	3-3
Wake Forest	103.5	101.1	101.2	101.9	0-2	3-3
Louisville	95.1	94.9	94.1	94.7	0-3	2-4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	117.0	115.6	116.7	116.5	2-0	5-1
Duke	114.1	111.8	113.5	113.2	0-1	4-1
Virginia Tech	113.1	112.2	112.9	112.7	2-0	3-2
Georgia Tech	112.4	111.5	112.2	112.1	1-2	3-3
Virginia	104.1	104.6	103.2	104.0	1-1	3-2
Pittsburgh	100.4	99.8	99.6	100.0	2-1	3-3
N. Carolina	99.0	97.9	98.2	98.4	1-1	1-3
ACC Averages	109.8	108.6	109.3	109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.4	118.0	119.7	119.0	2-1	5-1
West Virginia	114.5	113.6	113.8	113.9	3-0	5-0
Texas	113.9	112.6	113.6	113.3	3-0	5-1
T C U	113.2	112.2	112.0	112.4	1-1	3-2
Oklahoma St.	111.7	109.9	111.7	111.1	1-2	4-2
Iowa State	111.0	109.3	110.6	110.3	1-2	2-3
Texas Tech	108.7	107.3	107.4	107.8	1-1	3-2
Kansas St.	103.0	101.5	101.8	102.1	0-3	2-4
Baylor	102.6	100.7	102.1	101.8	2-1	4-2
Kansas	98.9	97.5	97.2	97.9	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	126.6	129.2	128.2	3-0	6-0
Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4	3-0	5-1
Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1	1-1	4-1
Michigan St.	116.5	114.4	115.8	115.6	2-1	3-2
Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0	1-1	3-2
Indiana	100.0	99.2	99.8	99.7	1-2	4-2
Rutgers	85.0	84.0	83.1	84.0	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.2	114.5	116.7	116.1	2-0	4-1
Iowa	114.4	112.2	113.8	113.5	1-1	4-1
Northwestern	112.8	111.1	113.0	112.3	2-1	2-3
Purdue	107.8	106.2	107.4	107.1	1-1	2-3
Minnesota	102.5	101.7	102.2	102.1	0-2	3-2
Nebraska	95.8	94.3	93.7	94.6	0-3	0-5
Illinois	94.2	94.0	93.4	93.9	1-1	3-2
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.6	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4	1-1	3-3
Marshall	92.5	95.0	93.3	93.6	1-1	3-2
Middle Tennessee	91.9	93.2	93.1	92.7	2-0	3-2
Florida Int’l.	89.5	93.6	90.3	91.1	1-0	3-2
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.3	85.3	85.6	0-1	1-4
Old Dominion	83.4	87.0	83.0	84.5	0-3	1-5
Charlotte	74.6	76.8	74.5	75.3	1-1	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.6	102.0	100.4	100.6	1-1	5-1
Louisiana Tech	93.0	95.3	94.3	94.2	1-1	3-2
U A B	92.3	94.7	92.9	93.3	2-0	4-1
Southern Miss.	84.7	87.8	85.5	86.0	1-0	2-2
U T S A	79.1	83.5	79.9	80.9	2-0	3-3
U T E P	71.1	74.2	70.5	71.9	0-2	0-6
Rice	69.0	71.6	67.2	69.3	0-2	1-5
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.6	86.3	86.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	125.8	122.9	125.0	124.5	x	6-0
Army	102.5	103.1	102.7	102.8	x	3-2
BYU	99.9	100.2	100.5	100.2	x	3-3
Massachusetts	83.2	85.1	84.1	84.1	x	2-5
Liberty	79.8	78.8	79.8	79.5	x	2-3
N. Mexico St.	76.2	78.2	76.5	77.0	x	2-4
Independents Averages	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	96.8	98.9	97.8	97.8	2-0	5-1
Ohio U	92.6	93.8	93.1	93.2	1-0	3-2
Miami (O)	91.6	93.3	94.0	93.0	2-1	2-4
Akron	91.7	93.0	92.2	92.3	0-1	2-2
Bowling Green	80.4	80.5	80.4	80.4	0-2	1-5
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.5	79.1	0-2	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.4	98.5	97.1	97.7	1-0	3-2
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.7	94.8	95.2	3-0	3-3
Eastern Michigan	93.2	94.5	93.8	93.8	0-3	2-4
Western Michigan	92.0	93.8	93.1	93.0	2-0	4-2
Central Michigan	85.4	87.9	85.9	86.4	0-2	1-5
Ball St.	84.1	86.4	83.8	84.8	1-1	2-4
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.4	110.8	111.8	111.3	1-1	3-2
Utah St.	106.1	107.4	107.5	107.0	1-0	4-1
Air Force	94.9	95.4	94.7	95.0	0-2	2-3
Wyoming	94.6	94.5	93.9	94.3	0-2	2-4
New Mexico	88.7	90.3	88.8	89.3	1-0	3-2
Colo. State	84.2	85.1	84.1	84.5	1-1	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.6	109.5	110.9	110.4	1-0	4-1
San Diego St.	102.8	103.1	103.9	103.2	1-0	4-1
Nevada	90.9	90.6	90.5	90.7	1-1	3-3
U N L V	85.2	86.7	85.6	85.8	0-1	2-3
Hawaii	82.4	84.5	81.5	82.8	3-0	6-1
San Jose St.	77.3	78.1	75.5	77.0	0-2	0-5
MWC Averages	94.1	94.7	94.1	94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	123.9	121.8	125.4	123.7	3-0	5-1
Stanford	114.8	112.1	114.8	113.9	2-1	4-2
Oregon	113.2	113.2	113.9	113.4	1-1	4-1
Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7	2-1	5-1
California	107.3	104.8	106.7	106.3	0-2	3-2
Oregon St.	86.6	84.2	84.8	85.2	0-3	1-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	114.1	112.3	114.8	113.8	1-2	3-2
U S C	109.7	107.9	108.9	108.8	2-1	3-2
Arizona St.	107.6	106.3	107.2	107.0	1-2	3-3
Colorado	104.1	105.6	105.3	105.0	2-0	5-0
Arizona	102.2	100.5	102.5	101.7	2-1	3-3
U C L A	96.5	96.3	94.1	95.6	0-2	0-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.0	127.7	132.0	130.2	4-0	6-0
Missouri	114.8	113.2	115.8	114.6	0-2	3-2
Florida	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4	3-1	5-1
Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2	3-1	5-1
S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.2	112.0	2-2	3-2
Vanderbilt	100.4	100.8	100.3	100.5	0-2	3-3
Tennessee	96.7	97.1	96.0	96.6	0-2	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.1	138.0	141.7	139.9	3-0	6-0
Mississippi St.	119.6	117.1	120.3	119.0	1-2	4-2
Auburn	118.2	116.9	119.8	118.3	1-2	4-2
L S U	114.9	114.9	115.9	115.2	2-1	5-1
Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2	2-1	4-2
Ole Miss	103.7	103.3	103.9	103.6	0-2	4-2
Arkansas	100.4	97.9	99.4	99.2	0-3	1-5
SEC Averages	113.9	112.6	114.4	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.4	100.1	99.9	99.4	1-0	3-1
Troy	92.1	93.6	93.6	93.1	3-0	5-1
Georgia Southern	90.0	91.6	90.8	90.8	2-0	4-1
Coastal Carolina	78.9	81.7	79.5	80.0	1-1	3-2
Georgia St.	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9	1-1	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.1	90.5	90.7	90.1	0-1	3-2
Louisiana	78.9	81.0	79.9	79.9	1-1	2-3
UL-Monroe	79.1	79.0	79.4	79.2	0-2	2-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.8	77.0	1-2	1-5
Texas State	70.2	73.2	69.8	71.1	0-2	1-4
Sun Belt Averages	83.2	85.0	84.0	84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.9	112.6	114.4	113.6
2	ACC	109.8	108.6	109.3	109.2
3	B12	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.6	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
7	IND	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
8	MWC	94.1	94.7	94.1	94.3
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.8	88.6	86.3	86.9
11	SUN	83.2	85.0	84.0	84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1	Central Florida
2	South Florida
3	Cincinnati
4	Fresno St.
5	San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Colorado
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Florida Atlantic	Louisiana
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	UAB
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[BYU]	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[Army]	[Marshall]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Utah]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Arizona St.]	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Utah St.]	Michigan St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Nevada]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	USC
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Duke
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	Washington St.
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Ohio St.	Clemson
Orange			Alabama	Notre Dame
National Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 20-24, 2018

Hooray for once.  The PiRate Ratings official picks last week enjoyed a nice winning record, sending the year to date record into positive territory.  It is a small profit, as the return on investment is just 1.92%, but at least it isn’t a red number.  Better yet, our straight picks against the spread or in the totals have a record of 11-6-1 for the season.  It is the exotic picks that have stunk up the joint.  Thus, we will go with just straight picks this week.

Best of all, out special Land Sharps are just torching the books with their selections.  One of the sharps, Buckeye Michelle, has been insane with her picks the last two weeks, and we have received messages from some of our regular subscribers asking for more information about her.  First of all, we are not in the business of matchmaking, so don’t ask.  And, yes, she is an incredibly beautiful 29-year old football fanatic.

One of you actually revealed to us that you know who Stewed Meat is.  Stewed is a real sharp.  Stewed lives in Nevada, and handicapping is Stewed career.  Stewed has shown us something special this week that many people never get the opportunity to see performed–playing the middle against both sides.  We’ll explain more about this at the end.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Selections Against The Spread

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wisconsin	Iowa	3.5	Iowa
Louisiana	Coastal Carolina	4.5	Coastal Carolina
North Carolina St.	Marshall	4.5	North Carolina St.
Maryland	Minnesota	3	Minnesota
Stanford	Oregon	1.5	Stanford
West Virginia	Kansas St.	17	Kansas St.
Chicago	Arizona	7	Arizona
Philadelphia	Indianapolis	6	Philadelphia
Green Bay	Washington	3	Washington

Now for the Land Sharps.  At the present time, this is how each has done so far.

Buckeye Michelle is 9-1 for 90% against the spread and +$790 a 79% ROI

Cal Gal Tiffy is 9-3 for 75% against the spread and +$570 a 47.5% ROI

Friday Dog 13 is 4-2 for 67% against the spread and +$180 a 30% ROI

Stewed Meat is 6-4 for 60% against the spread and +$160 a 16% ROI

Dean 615 is 3-3 for 50% against the spread and -$30 a -5% ROI

If more than one of our expert pickers agree on picking the same game, it must be a strong pick.  You will notice that a couple of games were selected by multiple sharps this week.  You will also notice that a couple of sharps picked against each other.

If you are just tuning in to this feature, the rules are simple.  The 5 participants can select against the margin or going over or under the total for any FBS college football game.  They can select 3, 5,7, or 9 games each week.  We then select the most favorable spread available at oddshark.com.

Here are the Land Sharps Picks For the Week.

Buckeye Michelle

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Wake Forest +8 vs. Notre Dame

Army +32 vs. Oklahoma

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

 

Cal Gal Tiffy

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

South Carolina -2 vs. Vanderbilt

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

UTSA -7 vs. Texas St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Penn St. -28 vs. Illinois

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

Virginia -5 vs. Louisville

Clemson -16 vs. Georgia Tech

TCU -3 vs. Texas

 

Stewed Meat

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Iowa +3.5 vs. Wisconsin

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

Louisville +5.5 vs. Virginia

 

Dean 615

Notre Dame -7 vs. Wake Forest

Michigan St. -4.5 vs. Indiana

USC -3.5 vs. Washington St.

Texas +3.5 vs. TCU

Nebraska +18 vs. Michigan

 

Special Look At Stewed Meat’s Real Life Strategy

Stewed is an expert at “Middling”.  In order to be able to do this, Stewed gets access to playing the early line and then immediately plays one side of a game in which Stewed believes the line is off and will move in the opposite direction of which Stewed originally played.  Then, when the line moves in the opposite direction, Stewed plays the other side

Let’s look at an example.  Let’s say Alabama opens as a 14.5 point favorite over Auburn, and Stewed likes Auburn at this number.  So Stewed wagers on Auburn at +14.5.  During the week, a lot of other people believe 14.5 points are too much for Alabama, and they bet the spread down to 11.5.  Now, Stewed wagers on Alabama at -11.5.

On the surface, you might think this is nuts.  Stewed will have a slim chance of the game ending up at 12, 13, or 14 points in Alabama’s favor, giving Stewed two wins.  In most cases, Stewed will win one and lose one and lose $10 for every $100 wagered on both sides.

However, if you look at the 11-10 odds and do a little mathematical calculations, Stewed only needs to have the game come in at the middle of the extremes one time out of 19 in order to turn a profit, plus Stewed has a Margin of Safety in place, because the most Stewed can lose is 10% on the dollar wagered.

Earlier this week, Stewed Wagered on the following games that have seen a significant line change and then wagered on the other team once the line moved in the other direction.

SMU +12.5 vs. Navy

Navy -7 vs. SMU

 

Ball St. Pk vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky +3 vs. Ball St.

 

Alabama -23.5 vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M +27 vs. Alabama

 

Auburn -24 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas +30 vs. Auburn

If just one of these four games come in with the spread in the middle, Stewed will turn a nice profit.

PiRate Ratings Final Four Preview

PiRate Red-White-Blue Ratings

Saturday, April 1
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Gonzaga	South Carolina	9	9	5
North Carolina	Oregon	3	3	2

Tipoff Times

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
Saturday, April 1
6:09 PM	CBS	Gonzaga	vs.	South Carolina
8:49 PM	CBS	North Carolina	vs.	Oregon

The Official Statistics 

Team Offense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
Gonzaga	37	1100	2162	269	711	611	851	356	1141	1497	422	260	3080
Team Defense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
Gonzaga	37	824	2260	212	723	394	598	401	828	1229	463	195	2254
Team Offense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
South Carolina	36	898	2132	241	715	595	853	451	857	1308	475	281	2632
Team Defense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
South Carolina	36	760	1909	199	668	618	855	391	873	1264	620	219	2337
Team Offense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
North Carolina	38	1175	2492	271	750	608	863	598	1062	1660	458	269	3229
Team Defense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
North Carolina	38	940	2260	304	894	499	692	343	822	1165	514	242	2683
Team Offense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
Oregon	38	1069	2212	327	854	535	759	400	985	1385	438	248	3000
Team Defense	G	FG	FGA	3pt	3ptA	FT	FTA	OReb	DReb	Reb	To	Stl	Pts
Oregon	38	907	2243	265	852	409	568	399	824	1223	504	179	2488

The Four Factors

Team	EFG	DEFG	OR%	DOR%	TO%	DTO%	FT*	DFT*
Gonzaga	57.1	41.2	30.1	26.0	14.1	15.4	23.2	15.1
South Carolina	47.8	45.0	34.1	31.3	15.8	21.1	23.2	24.3
North Carolina	52.6	48.3	42.1	24.4	13.6	16.6	22.0	18.1
Oregon	55.7	46.3	32.7	28.8	14.5	16.7	20.5	15.6

FT* & DFT* use FT/100 Possessions as its metric formula

 

PiRate Ratings Criteria

Team	PPG	Def	Mar.	FG-Marg	Reb-Marg	TO-Marg	R+T*	WLRd	SOS	OPoss	DPoss	Poss/G
Gonzaga	83.2	60.9	22.3	14.4	7.2	1.1	19.8	21-0	54.36	2632	2606	70.8
South Carolina	73.1	64.9	8.2	2.3	1.2	4.0	10.3	11-7	56.96	2561	2544	70.9
North Carolina	85.0	70.6	14.4	5.6	13.0	1.5	30.7	15-7	59.00	2762	2760	72.7
Oregon	78.9	65.5	13.5	7.9	4.3	1.7	14.8	16-5	56.83	2611	2618	68.8

R+T*: For those of you new to the PiRate Ratings, the R+T rating is our own invention.  It is an attempt to estimate the potential number of points above or below average that a team is capable of scoring due to superior rebounding, forcing and avoiding turnover, and especially getting and avoiding steals, the most punishing of turnovers, as it almost always leads to points and/or fouls.  The number represents the potential points scored against an average team just from the hustle stats.  Thus, at 19.8, Gonzaga could be expected to score 20 points per game against an average team just from their rebounding margin and turnover margin, with an emphasis on steals margin.  The 20 points is figured based on extra scoring opportunities and includes the possibility that fast break shots might be missed and the team might turn the ball over with this added opportunity.

Anything over 15.0 is outstanding, while anything over 25.0 is super and a major contributor to winning a lot of games.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Comparisons

Gonzaga vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Reason–Since 1985 with the 64 or 68-team tournament, there have been 64 teams in the 32 National Championship Games.  60 of the 64 came from Power Conferences

 

Advantage–South Carolina, as the WCC is not a power conference, while the SEC is

 

Strength of Schedule: Reason–All National Champions since SOS records have been kept had SOS’s of 4 points better than average.  

Advantage–Slight to South Carolina.  Both teams qualify here, but USC’s SOS is about 2 1/2 points stronger per game on average.

R+T Rating: Reason–All Champions in since 2000 have had R+T above 10.0

Advantage: Gonzaga has a substantial advantage here, but South Carolina barely qualifies.  The Bulldogs should expect to have the chance to score 10 extra points from R+T Rating, meaning USC will have to make up for this with Field Goal margin.

Scoring Margin: Reason–Almost every team in the NCAA Championship Game throughout the history of the tournament have had scoring margins in excess of 8 points per game, and most had double-digit margins.

Advantage: Gonzaga has a substantial edge here, but USC also qualifies by the skin of their teeth.  Gonzaga’s 20+ scoring margin must be discounted a little due to their schedule, but we can adjust this to about 12 points if the Zags had played in the Pac-12.

 

Field Goal % Margin: Reason–Over 90% of all title participants have had FG% Margins in excess of 5% and a majority have had margins over 8%.  Teams with double digit margins have dominated title games when the opponent had margins under 5%.  There are exceptions, like 1985 when Villanova upset Georgetown.

Advantage: Major advantage to Gonzaga, as their FG% margin has the look of many of John Wooden’s UCLA teams.  USC does not qualify here with a FG% margin of just 2%.

PiRate Criteria Analysis: Except for conference class, Gonzaga has the look of a dominant national championship team.  However, class is just as important in college basketball as it is in horse racing.  A great horse from a small track that has several smaller stakes wins might have better numbers than the horses that run at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, and most of the time, these horses fail when running in a Grade 1 race.

Gonzaga is not your normal mid-major team.  They are more like Butler when the Bulldogs went to back-to-back title games and UNLV from 1990.  Gonzaga has the talent to win it all.  They have a dominant inside game and an underrated perimeter game.

South Carolina has a lot of heart, and their defense has stepped it up in the tournament.  The Gamecocks looked like this at the start of the season before injuries began to affect the perimeter defense.  Now, USC is fully healthy again, and the players remind us of the Gashouse Gang (The 1934 St. Louis Cardinals World Series Champions).  Opponents feel like they have gone 12 rounds with Joe Louis after 40 minutes of playing against them.

We expect South Carolina to keep this game close for the first 32 minutes or so, but after that Gonzaga’s superior inside strength will take its toll, as both teams tire late and begin to misfire from outside.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Prediction: Gonzaga 69  South Carolina 61

 

North Carolina vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Advantage–Very slight advantage to North Carolina, as the ACC is the equivalent of the AL East in Major League Baseball.  No Pac-12 team has won the title since Arizona 20 years ago.

Strength of Schedule: Advantage–Slight edge to North Carolina by an average of about 2.2 points per game

R+T Rating: Advantage–North Carolina has the largest R+T Rating in all of Division 1, as they did last year when they came within a second of winning the title.  Oregon’s rating is almost 15, which means the Ducks are exceptional as well, just not as exceptional as UNC.  Also missing 6-10 Chris Boucher in this game should be somewhat important, and the  Tar Heels will have a decided rebounding advantage, a major component of R+T.

Scoring Margin: Advantage–A Push, as both teams have similar numbers.

Field Goal % Margin: Advantage–Oregon has a minor but definite advantage with numbers that look a little more like a Championship Game participant, but teams have won the title with the same margin as the Tar Heels.  

PiRate Criteria Analysis: All during this tournament, we have been concerned about Oregon missing Boucher, thinking that eventually the Duck frontcourt would wear down in the second games of the two previous weekends.  That did not happen, as the Ducks rallied and found another gear.  We are now ready to admit to this mistake.  Oregon can win all the marbles without Boucher.  However, this is the first game where their opponent has the scary frontcourt.  Oregon needs Boucher not because of depth, but because they need a 6-10 bruiser to bang it with Carolina’s titans.

North Carolina’s perimeter play has had the look of a national champion.  The guards stepped up on both sides of the ball late in the games with Arkansas and Kentucky, refusing to end the season.  Remember too that UNC feels slighted for last year.  They had the national championship trophy in grasp until a last second shot moved that trophy over to Villanova’s locker room.

PiRate Ratings Criteria Prediction: North Carolina 85  Oregon 75

 

4 Interesting Possible National Title Games

You the typical college basketball fan is guaranteed to have a great title game Monday night no matter who wins tomorrow.  Let’s look at each of the four possibilities.

 

Gonzaga vs. North Carolina:  These are the two teams that looked like the most dominant throughout most of the season.  Earlier in the season, when these teams were playing in tournaments against quality opposition, they won handily, dominating in all facets of the game.  Also, this represents the old guard of UNC against the upstart that has been threatening to get this far for years in Gonzaga.  

Gonzaga vs. Oregon: There has not been an all West Coast National Championship Game before.  Of course, until the age when more than one team per conference going to the Big Dance, it was not possible, as these two teams would have both been in the West Regional.  Still, it would be interesting to have two teams from the Pacific Northwest facing off in the title game.

South Carolina vs. North Carolina: Many of you have not experienced a Dodgers-Yankees or Giants–Yankees World Series.  In our opinion, nothing can beat a Dodgers-Yankees World Series.  This would be an equivalent.  These two teams were both in the ACC for many years until the Gamecocks became an Independent following the 1971 season (when they were the ACC Champions).  Two former South Carolina head coaches, Frank McGuire and Eddie Fogler, had North Carolina ties, and Fogler has been BFFs with Roy Williams for decades.

South Carolina vs. Oregon: A lot of people would find it very interesting if the Seattle Mariners played the Washington Nationals in the World Series.  Not having the Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, or Giants would be a great change of pace.  The Cleveland-Chicago World Series last year did more for Major League Baseball than American Pharoh’s winning the Triple Crown in 2015.  A Gamecock-Duck National Championship Game could make fans of all Division 1 teams from Power Conferences believe their team could do it too.

 

 

PiRate Ratings Elite 8 Preview

RED-WHITE-BLUE RATINGS

Saturday, March 25
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Gonzaga	Xavier	11	8	3
Kansas	Oregon	6	3	3

 

Sunday, March 26
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Kentucky	North Carolina	1	-2	-1
Florida	South Carolina	6	7	5

 

PiRate Ratings National Championship Criteria Breakdown of the Elite 8

Gonzaga vs. Xavier

Power Conference: Xavier-Yes, Gonzaga-No    Favors Xavier

Strength of Schedule: Xavier 58.70, Gonzaga 54.02  Favors Xavier by a little

R+T Rating: Gonzaga 20.3, Xavier 14.4  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Scoring Margin: Gonzaga 22.3, Xavier 4.0  Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

FG% Differential: Gonzaga 14.5, Xavier 1.1  Favors Gonzaga by a lot

Road W-L: Gonzaga 20-0, Xavier 12-9   Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

Winning Streaks: Gonzaga 29 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Expected Possessions in this Game: 69 per team  Favors neither team

Outcome: Gonzaga has everything going for it except conference strength and schedule.  If the Bulldogs had the same numbers and played in the Big East, they would have the perfect resume for a national champion.  However, there hasn’t been a national champion from outside a power conference since UNLV won in 1990, and before that, it was Texas Western in 1966.  Of course, non power conference teams have made it to the Final Four numerous times in the past decade.

Criteria Selection: GONZAGA 75  Xavier 70

 

Kansas vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Yes for Both   Favors neither team

Strength of Schedule: Kansas 58.11, Oregon 56.83  Only slightly favors Kansas

R+T Rating: Oregon 14.8,  Kansas 12.6  Only slightly favors Oregon

Scoring Margin: Oregon 13.5, Kansas 12.0  Not much difference

FG% Differential: Oregon 7.7, Kansas 7.5  A Push

Road W-L: Kansas 16-3, Oregon 15-5  This favors Kansas, but it is almost a home game for KU

Winning Streaks: Kansas 18 & 8, Oregon 17 & 8  A Push

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Slightly favors Kansas

Outcome: We have to include two extra criteria here.  Oregon’s stats must be slightly discounted due to the loss of Boucher, and Kansas is playing this game in their favorite venue not named Phog Allen Fieldhouse, earning about two points of home court advantage.   Otherwise, this game would be a tossup, and it still might be rather close.  However, watching what KU did to a quality Purdue team on this court Thursday night, it makes us wonder if any college team can beat Kansas in KC.  Oops!  That happened in the Big 12 Tournament, so think again–except not today.

Criteria Selection: KANSAS 83  Oregon 75

 

Florida vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both and both in the SEC so this is a third game between these teams.  Both teams won the game on their home floor.

Strength of Schedule: Florida 59.34, South Carolina 56.23  A slight edge to the Gators

R+T Rating: Florida 11.1, South Carolina 10.4  About the same

Scoring Margin: Florida 11.9, South Carolina 8.3  A small edge to the Gators

FG% Differential: Florida 4.3, South Carolina 2.3  A small edge to the Gators

Road W-L: Florida 18-7, South Carolina 10-7, actually about the same as UF played a lot of early neutral site games in their own backyard while their gym was being refurbished

Winning Streaks: Florida 9 & 7, South Carolina 8 & 5

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Favors neither team

Outcome: South Carolina’s defense in their Sweet 16 game against Baylor was the best we have seen in a game this late into the Big Dance since Georgetown manhandled Kentucky in 1984, which comes on top of one of the best offensive performances in their win over Duke.  Can the Gamecocks do this to a team that is not just a conference foe, but a rather strong rival?  Florida might also be a tad fatigued coming off the overtime win over Wisconsin, but it helps that the Gators are facing a team they know about without having to look at the film for a long time.  This will be the most exciting game of this round, even more exciting than the big UK-UNC match, because this will have the feel of the 7th game of an NBA playoff series.

Criteria Selection: FLORIDA 67  South Carolina 64

 

Kentucky vs. North Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both  Before the tourney started, the ACC might have gotten a little extra over the SEC, but with 3 of the Elite 8 from the SEC, it almost makes us think about the opposite

Strength of Schedule: North Carolina 59.00, Kentucky 58.63   A Push

R+T Rating: North Carolina 31.0,  Kentucky 17.1  UNC has the best R+T in NCAA basketball, but Kentucky’s is rather high as well, and in the course of this game, it will not give the Tar Heels a lot of advantage

Scoring Margin: North Carolina 14.7, Kentucky 13.8  Not enough difference to matter

FG% Differential: North Carolina 5.6,  Kentucky 5.2  A Push

Road W-L: Kentucky 17-3, North Carolina 14-7,  A slight edge to the Wildcats

Winning Streaks: Kentucky 14 & 7, North Carolina 13 & 7, While this looks like another push, Kentucky’s 14-game winning streak is ongoing, and there is a definite difference in the Wildcats’ performance in this streak, while Carolina played its best basketball in November and December

Expected Possessions in this Game: 74,  which favors Kentucky just like it did in December

Outcome: We selected Kentucky to run the table and win the National Championship before the NCAA Tournament started, and nothing has changed our beliefs that the Wildcats are the best team in the nation when they want to play up to their potential.  It can be difficult to motivate a stable full of future NBA Lottery picks, but Coach John Calipari is a master psychologist with an ability to coerce through his many talks with his players.  When any of the starters and a couple reserves can go off and score 25 points in a game, it is hard to prepare in advance.  Stop Monk, and someone else has a career night.

Criteria Selection: KENTUCKY 85  North Carolina 73