The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 9, 2015

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Report for Monday, February 9, 2015

We at the PiRate Ratings have realized that the public can find much more accurate bracketology data than that provided by the famous bracketologists at the major media outlets.  We have known this because as regular annual participants in the Football Prediction Tracker, you don’t see the most famous computer ranking services finishing at the top.  Looking at this week’s Basketball Prediction Tracker record of picking winning teams (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/bbresults.php), you will see that it is our new experimental PiRate White and PiRate Red rankings that sit at number one and number two at 77.2% and 76.5%.  It’s always some math genius, sports fan professor of mathematics at some university (or somebody like us who got lucky and finished first twice before).

 

Bracketology is not an exact science.  There is no sabermetric formula you can plug into a computer and spit out the 68 teams that should be selected for the tournament.  There is no Batter’s Wins, Pitcher’s Wins, and Fielding Wins that show you the Mike Trout’s of college basketball.

 

Instead, we have smart guys like Patrick Stevens of the Syracuse Post-Standard newspaper, who for several years has been putting out bracketology selections considerably more accurate than the famous gurus at the major outlets.  Stevens is not alone.  We have isolated more than two dozen bracketologists with five or more years experience that all dust the major competition in accuracy.

 

When you combine these less known but more accurate hard-working guys, their composite selections are about as accurate as you will find anywhere.  For instance, two years ago, a couple successfully selected all 68 teams, and the rest picked 66 or 67 teams out of 68 correctly.  As a combined group, the composite successfully picked all 68 teams correctly.  Last year, the group as a whole hit on 67 of 68.

 

We first became interested in finding a more accurate bracketology experience when most of the gurus failed to select Virginia Commonwealth to make the Big Dance in 2011, and the Rams merely advanced to the Final Four.  One of the big-time selectors failed to include Dayton in last year’s predictions, and the Flyers advanced to the Elite 8.

 

And so, continuing today and appearing frequently until Selection Sunday, we will monitor our 20-something unknown Einsteins and keep what we call the PiRate Composite Bracketology rankings.

 

Report for Monday, February 09, 2015

 

Let’s begin with the one-bid leagues.  21 conferences will send just one team to the NCAA Tournament.  In the case of 20 of these 21, the conference tournament winner will receive that lone bid.

 

The Ivy League may never hold a dedicated conference tournament, but many times in the past, a post-season playoff for first place has given the league a quasi-tournament.  In the Ivy, any team finishing tied for first qualifies for a playoff, even if one of the co-champs swept the other in the regular season.  Harvard and Yale could very well play in March to determine the league champ.

 

For the one bid leagues, we will name the top contenders at the present time based on conference won-lost record.

 

America East Conference Overall
Albany 11-0 16-7
Vermont 9-2 14-10
New Hampshire 7-4 14-10
Stony Brook 6-4 15-10
     
Atlantic Sun Conference Overall
Florida Gulf Coast 7-1 17-7
North Florida 7-1 15-10
USC Upstate 5-3 18-7
     
Big Sky Conference Overall
Sacramento St. 10-1 16-6
Eastern Washington 9-1 18-5
Montana 8-3 12-10
Northern Arizona 7-3 12-11
Northern Colorado 7-4 12-10
     
Big South Conference Overall
High Point 8-4 17-7
Coastal Carolina 8-4 17-7
Radford 8-4 17-8
Gardner-Webb 8-4 16-9
Charleston Southern 8-4 14-9
Winthrop 8-4 13-10
UNC Asheville 8-4 12-11
     
Big West Conference Overall
UC Davis 8-1 18-4
UC Irvine 7-2 14-9
Long Beach St. 7-2 13-12
     
Colonial Conference Overall
William & Mary 9-3 15-8
Northeastern 8-4 16-9
UNC Wilmington 8-4 13-10
Hofstra 7-5 16-9
James Madison 7-5 14-11
Drexel 7-5 9-14
     
Conference USA Conference Overall
Louisiana Tech 9-2 18-6
Western Kentucky 9-2 16-7
U A B 9-2 13-11
U T E P 8-3 16-7
Old Dominion 7-3 18-4
UT San Antonio 6-5 12-10
Middle Tennessee 6-5 13-11
     
Horizon Conference Overall
Valparaiso 9-2 22-4
Cleveland St. 9-2 15-10
Green Bay 8-2 19-5
Oakland 7-3 12-13
     
Ivy League Conference Overall
Harvard 5-1 15-5
Yale 5-1 16-7
Princeton 3-2 10-11
Columbia 3-3 11-9
Cornell 3-3 11-11
     
M A C Conference Overall
Bowling Green 7-3 15-6
Akron 7-3 16-7
Kent St. 7-3 16-7
Toledo 7-3 15-8
Central Michigan 6-4 16-5
Buffalo 6-4 15-7
Western Michigan 5-5 14-9
     
M A A C Conference Overall
Iona 11-2 18-6
Rider 10-4 16-9
Manhattan 9-5 12-11
Monmouth 9-5 13-12
     
M E A C Conference Overall
UNC Central 10-0 18-6
Norfolk St. 9-1 16-9
Howard 6-3 12-11
UM-Eastern Shore 6-4 13-12
South Carolina St. 6-4 9-16
     
Northeast Conference Overall
St. Francis (NY) 10-2 16-9
Robert Morris 8-4 12-12
Bryant 8-4 11-12
St. Francis (PA) 7-5 13-10
Mt. St. Mary‘s 7-5 11-12
     
Ohio Valley Conference Overall
Murray St. 11-0 21-4
Tenn-Martin 7-3 15-8
Belmont 7-4 15-9
Eastern Illinois 7-4 14-10
Morehead St. 7-4 12-14
Eastern Kentucky 6-4 14-9
     
Patriot Conference Overall
Bucknell 8-4 13-12
Colgate 8-4 11-14
Lehigh 7-5 13-10
Lafayette 6-5 14-8
     
Southern Conference Overall
Wofford 11-1 20-5
Chattanooga 9-3 16-9
Mercer 9-3 14-11
Western Carolina 7-6 12-13
     
Southland Conference Overall
Stephen F. Austin 9-0 19-3
Sam Houston St. 10-1 18-5
Northwestern St. 7-3 12-9
Texas A&M-C.C. 7-3 12-10
     
Summit Conference Overall
North Dakota St. 9-2 17-7
South Dakota St. 9-3 18-8
Oral Roberts 6-4 13-11
I P F W 6-5 13-11
     
Sun Belt Conference Overall
La. Monroe 10-3 16-8
Georgia Southern 9-3 16-5
Georgia St. 9-4 16-8
UT-Arlington 7-5 13-9
La. Lafayette 7-6 13-11
     
S W A C Conference Overall
Texas Southern 8-2 11-12
Jackson St. 5-5 7-16
Prairie View 5-5 7-16
Alabama A&M 5-5 6-14
     
W A C Conference Overall
New Mexico St. 7-1 15-10
U M K C 5-3 10-15
Seattle 4-4 11-11

 

The remaining 11 conferences will divvy up the 47 remaining bids.  For these conferences, we will list the teams by the average seed given to them by our two dozen plus experts.  If an expert left a team off his list, we assign a seed of “20” to this team to lower their overall seeding.  Thus, it is better to be the last team in the Big Dance on every bracketologist’s list and seeded at 13 than to be a 12-seed on 80% and not included on 20%.

 

American Conference Overall Seed
Tulsa 10-1 17-6 12
SMU 10-2 19-5 7
Cincinnati 8-3 17-6 7
Temple 8-3 17-7 13
Memphis 6-4 14-9 Out
Connecticut 6-4 13-9 Out
       
Atlantic 10 Conference Overall Seed
V C U 8-2 18-5 5
Rhode Island 8-2 16-5 Bubble
Dayton 7-3 17-5 10
George Washington 7-3 17-6 1st out
U Mass 7-3 14-9 8th out
Davidson 6-4 15-6 Bubble
St. Bonaventure 6-4 13-8 Out
       
A C C Conference Overall Seed
Virginia 9-1 21-1 1
Notre Dame 9-3 21-4 4
North Carolina 8-3 18-6 3
Duke 7-3 20-3 1
Louisville 7-3 19-4 3
Clemson 6-5 14-9 7th out
Pittsburgh 5-5 16-8 Bubble
Miami (FL) 5-5 15-8 13
N.C. State 5-6 14-10 6th out
       
Big East Conference Overall Seed
Villanova 8-2 21-2 2
Butler 8-3 18-6 5
Providence 7-4 17-7 6
Georgetown 7-5 15-8 7
Xavier 6-6 15-9 9
DePaul 6-6 12-13 Out
Seton Hall 5-6 15-8 12
St. John’s 4-6 15-8 12
       
Big Ten Conference Overall Seed
Wisconsin 9-1 21-2 2
Maryland 7-4 19-5 4
Ohio St. 7-4 18-6 8
Indiana 7-4 17-7 7
Purdue 7-4 15-9 4th out
Iowa 6-4 15-8 8
Michigan St. 6-4 15-8 11
Illinois 6-5 16-8 11
Michigan 6-6 13-11 Bubble
Minnesota 4-7 15-9 Bubble
       
Big 12 Conference Overall Seed
Kansas 8-2 19-4 2
Iowa St. 7-3 17-5 3
Oklahoma 7-4 16-7 4
Baylor 6-4 18-5 3
West Virginia 6-4 18-5 6
Oklahoma St. 6-5 16-7 6
Kansas St. 5-6 12-12 Out
Texas 4-6 15-8 8
       
Missouri Valley Conference Overall Seed
Northern Iowa 11-1 22-2 5
Wichita St. 11-1 21-3 5
       
Mountain West Conference Overall Seed
Wyoming 8-3 19-5 10th out
San Diego St. 8-3 18-6 9
Boise St. 7-3 17-6 5th out
Colorado St. 7-4 20-4 9
       
Pac-12 Conference Overall Seed
Arizona 8-2 20-3 2
Utah 8-2 18-4 4
Oregon 7-4 17-7 3rd out
Oregon St. 7-4 16-7 Out
Stanford 7-4 16-7 10
U C L A 6-5 14-10 2nd out
Washington 3-8 14-9 Bubble
       
S E C Conference Overall Seed
Kentucky 10-0 23-0 1
Arkansas 7-3 18-5 6
Texas A&M 7-3 16-6 10
Ole Miss 7-3 16-7 9
L S U 6-4 17-6 10
Georgia 6-4 15-7 8
Tennessee 5-5 13-9 Bubble
Florida 5-5 12-11 9th out
Alabama 4-6 14-9 Bubble
       
West Coast Conference Overall Seed
Gonzaga 12-0 24-1 1
Saint Mary’s 10-2 18-5 Bubble
B Y U 8-5 18-8 Bubble
Pepperdine 8-5 15-9 Out

 

Using the average seeding of all the teams, here is how the experts see the top four seeds per region as of today.

 

South Seed
Kentucky 1
Arizona 2
Louisville 3
Maryland 4
   
East Seed
Virginia 1
Villanova 2
Iowa St. 3
Oklahoma 4
   
Midwest Seed
Duke 1
Kansas 2
North Carolina 3
Utah 4
   
West Seed
Gonzaga 1
Wisconsin 2
Baylor 3
Notre Dame 4

 

This is how our experts seed the eight teams that must play an opening round game in Dayton.  This includes the last four teams making the NCAA Tournament as #12 or #13 seeds as well as the lowest four-seeded teams among those that receive automatic bids.

 

Opening Round Games at Dayton
Miami (FL.) vs. St. John’s
Temple vs. Seton Hall
America East Champion vs. Patriot Champion
S W A C Champion vs. Northeast Champion

 

How about the top five teams from conferences that will receive just one bid?  There are five teams seen as capable of beating a higher seed, including one team deemed to be talented enough to sneak into the Sweet 16.

 

Top 5 Teams From 1-bid Leagues
Old Dominion Sweet 16
Stephen F. Austin 1 win
Louisiana Tech 1 win
Valparaiso 1 win
Murray St. 1 win

 

So you want some dark horse candidates to sneak into the Final Four.  Here are four teams that have qualities that can make it hard for opponents to prepare to play on short notice.  This is a quartet of teams that could make an unexpected run to the Final Four.

 

4 Darkhorse Final 4 Candidates
Indiana
Iowa St.
Northern Iowa
Utah

 

Every year, a top-6 seed loses its opening round game in such a way that it really does not look like an upset.  In the past Georgetown and Vanderbilt have lost multiple times to double-digit seeds in such a way that the underdog looked like it could win nine times out of 10.  Here are the teams this season most vulnerable to losing a first round game as the favorite, while looking like they might lose nine times out of 10 to the “upset” winner.

 

5 1st Round Upset Candidates
Arkansas
Maryland
Notre Dame
Oklahoma St.
Villanova

 

Congratulations to Georgetown!  The Hoyas appear to have the talent to win that first round game this year.

 

Here are the 10 most vulnerable at-large teams this week.  A couple of unexpected losses or too many unexpected losses will send these teams to the NIT.

 

Last 10 IN Overall Seed
Miami (FL) 68
Temple 67
Seton Hall 66
St. John’s 65
Tulsa 64
Michigan St. 63
Illinois 62
Texs A&M 61
L S U 60
Stanford 59

 

Here are the top 10 teams waiting to move up into the field if and when some of the last 10 flub up.  These teams are one winning steak or a big win or two away from moving into the field of 68.

 

1st 10 Out Overall Seed
George Washington 69
U C L A 70
Oregon 71
Purdue 72
Boise St. 73
N. C. St. 74
Clemson 75
U Mass 76
Florida 77
Wyoming 78

 

We will have another update next Monday, February 16.  It won’t be long until the first conference tournaments commence.  Three weeks from tomorrow, the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, and Patriot League tournaments start.

 

We will have the conference tournament seeds and score updates daily starting with Monday, March 2.

 

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February 2, 2015

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Report for Monday, February 2, 2015

If its’ the first Monday in February, then it’s the annual first installment of the PiRate Composite Bracketology Report.

We at the PiRate Ratings have realized that the public can find much more accurate bracketology data than that provided by the famous bracketologists at the major media outlets.  We have known this because as regular annual participants in the Football Prediction Tracker, you don’t see the most famous computer ranking services finishing at the top.  It’s always some math genius, sports fan professor of mathematics at some university (or somebody like us who got lucky and finished first twice before).

Bracketology is not an exact science.  There is no sabermetric formula you can plug into a computer and spit out the 68 teams that should be selected for the tournament.  There is no Batter’s Wins, Pitcher’s Wins, and Fielding Wins that show you the Mike Trout’s of college basketball.

Instead, we have smart guys like Patrick Stevens of the Syracuse Post-Standard newspaper, who for several years has been putting out bracketology selections considerably more accurate than the famous gurus at the major outlets.  Stevens is not alone.  We have isolated more than two dozen bracketologists with five or more years experience that all dust the major competition in accuracy.

When you combine these less known but more accurate hard-working guys, their composite selections are about as accurate as you will find anywhere.  For instance, two years ago, a couple successfully selected all 68 teams, and the rest picked 66 or 67 teams out of 68 correctly.  As a combined group, the composite successfully picked all 68 teams correctly.  Last year, the group as a whole hit on 67 of 68.

We first became interested in finding a more accurate bracketology experience when most of the gurus failed to select Virginia Commonwealth to make the Big Dance in 2011, and the Rams merely advanced to the Final Four.  One of the big-time selectors failed to include Dayton in last year’s predictions, and the Flyers advanced to the Elite 8.

And so, starting today and appearing frequently until Selection Sunday, we will monitor our 20-something unknown Einsteins and keep what we call the PiRate Composite Bracketology rankings.

Report for Monday, February 02, 2015

Let’s begin with the one-bid leagues.  21 conferences will send just one team to the NCAA Tournament.  In the case of 20 of these 21, the conference tournament winner will receive that lone bid.  The Ivy League may never hold a dedicated conference tournament, but many times in the past, a post-season playoff for first place has given the league a quasi-tournament.  In the Ivy, any team finishing tied for first qualifies for a playoff, even if one of the co-champs swept the other in the regular season.

For the one bid leagues, we will name the top contenders at the present time based on conference won-lost record.

America East Confer. Overall
Albany 9-0 14-7
Vermont 7-2 12-10
Stony Brook 6-3 15-9
New Hampshire 6-3 13-9
Atlantic Sun Confer. Overall
Florida Gulf Coast 6-1 16-7
North Florida 6-1 14-10
USC-Upstate 4-3 16-7
Big Sky Confer. Overall
Sacramento St. 9-1 15-6
Eastern Washington 7-1 16-5
Montana 7-2 11-9
Northern Colorado 6-3 11-9
Big South Confer. Overall
High Point 8-2 17-5
Radford 7-3 16-7
Charleston Sou. 7-3 13-8
UNC-Asheville 7-3 11-10
Coastal Carolina 6-4 15-7
Gardner-Webb 6-4 14-9
Winthrop 6-4 11-10
Big West Confer. Overall
UC-Davis 6-1 16-4
UC-Irvine 6-1 13-8
Long Beach St. 6-1 12-11
Colonial Confer. Overall
William & Mary 8-2 14-7
Northeastern 7-3 15-8
UNC-Wilmington 7-3 12-9
James Madison 6-4 13-10
Conference USA Confer. Overall
Louisiana Tech 8-1 17-5
Western Kentucky 8-1 15-6
UAB 7-2 11-11
Old Dominion 6-3 17-4
UTEP 6-3 14-7
Horizon Confer. Overall
Valparaiso 7-2 20-4
Cleveland St. 7-2 13-10
Green Bay 6-2 17-5
Oakland 6-2 11-12
Ivy League Confer. Overall
Yale 4-0 15-6
Harvard 3-1 13-5
Princeton 2-1 9-10
Mid-American Confer. Overall
Akron 6-2 15-6
Kent St. 6-2 15-6
Central Michigan 5-3 15-4
Toledo 5-3 13-8
Buffalo 5-3 14-6
Bowling Green 5-3 13-6
Metro Atlantic Confer. Overall
Iona 9-2 16-6
Rider 8-3 14-8
Manhattan 8-4 11-10
Monmouth 8-4 12-11
Canisius 7-5 12-9
Mideastern Ath. Confer. Overall
UNC Central 8-0 16-6
Norfolk St. 8-1 15-9
UM-Eastern Shore 6-2 13-10
Howard 5-2 11-10
South Carolina St. 6-3 8-15
Northeast Confer. Overall
St. Francis (NY) 8-2 14-9
Robert Morris 7-3 11-11
Bryant 7-3 10-10
St. Francis (PA) 6-4 12-9
Mt. St. Mary’s 6-4 10-11
Wagner 6-4 8-13
Ohio Valley Confer. Overall
Murray St. 9-0 19-4
Belmont 7-2 15-7
Eastern Illinois 7-3 13-9
UT-Martin 5-3 13-8
Patriot Confer. Overall
Bucknell 7-3 12-11
Colgate 7-3 10-13
Army 5-5 14-7
Lafayette 5-5 13-8
Southern Confer. Overall
Wofford 9-1 18-5
Chattanooga 8-2 15-8
Mercer 7-3 12-11
East Tennessee 6-5 13-8
Western Carolina 6-5 11-12
Southland Confer. Overall
Stephen F Austin 8-0 18-3
Sam Houston 8-1 16-5
Texas A&M-CC 6-2 11-9
Northwestern St. 6-3 11-9
Southwestern Ath. Confer. Overall
Texas Southern 7-1 10-11
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4-4 7-15
Summit Confer. Overall
South Dakota St. 8-2 17-7
North Dakota St. 7-2 15-7
Oral Roberts 5-3 12-10
Sun Belt Confer. Overall
Georgia Southern 8-2 15-4
Georgia St. 8-3 15-7
Louisiana-Monroe 8-3 14-8
Western Ath. Confer. Overall
New Mexico St. 5-1 13-10
Missouri-KC 4-2 9-14

The remaining 11 conferences will divvy up the 47 remaining bids.  For these conferences, we will list the teams by the average seeding given to them of our two dozen plus experts.  If an expert left a team off his list, we assign a seeding of “20” to this team to lower their overall seeding.  Thus it is better to be the last team in the Big Dance on every bracketologist’s list and seeded at 13 than to be a 12-seed on 80% and not included on 20%.

If you see a team marked with a number followed by the word “out,” that team is one of the top 10 teams just outside of the field.  If you see a team marked with a number followed by an asterisk (*), that team is one of the last 10 to make the field and very vulnerable for dropping out if they lose a couple games they should not.  If a team is marked as “bubble,” then they received at least one placement in one of the experts’ seedings but did not make the first 10 teams out of the tournament.

American Ath. Confer. Overall Seed
SMU 9-1 18-4 7
Cincinnati 6-3 15-6 8
Tulsa 9-0 16-5 11 *
Temple 6-3 15-7 2nd out
Connecticut 4-4 11-9 bubble
Atlantic Coast Confer. Overall Seed
Virginia 7-1 19-1 1
Duke 5-3 18-3 2
Louisville 6-2 18-3 3
North Carolina 7-2 17-5 3
Notre Dame 8-2 20-3 3
Miami 4-4 14-7 11 *
NC State 5-5 14-9 11 *
Syracuse 5-3 14-7 8th out
Clemson 5-4 13-8 9th out
Atlantic 10 Confer. Overall Seed
VCU 7-1 17-4 4
Dayton 7-2 17-4 9
George Washington 6-3 16-6 12 *
Davidson 5-3 14-5 1st out
Rhode Island 7-2 15-5 10th out
U Mass 5-3 12-9 bubble
Big East Confer. Overall Seed
Villanova 6-2 19-2 2
Butler 6-3 16-6 5
Georgetown 7-3 15-6 6
Providence 6-3 16-6 6
Seton Hall 5-4 15-6 8
Xavier 5-5 14-8 9
St. John’s 3-5 14-7 11 *
Big Ten Confer. Overall Seed
Wisconsin 7-1 19-2 2
Maryland 6-3 18-4 4
Ohio State 6-3 17-5 7
Indiana 6-3 16-6 7
Michigan State 6-3 15-7 9
Iowa 4-4 13-8 11 *
Michigan 6-4 13-9 bubble
Purdue 6-3 14-8 bubble
Illinois 4-5 14-8 bubble
Big 12 Confer. Overall Seed
Kansas 7-1 18-3 2
Iowa State 6-2 16-4 3
West Virginia 6-2 18-3 4
Baylor 4-4 16-5 5
Oklahoma 5-4 14-7 5
Texas 3-5 14-7 7
Oklahoma State 4-5 14-7 10
Kansas State 5-4 12-10 bubble
Missouri Valley Confer. Overall Seed
Wichita State 9-1 19-3 5
Northern Iowa 9-1 20-2 6
Mountain West Confer. Overall Seed
San Diego State 7-2 17-5 8
Colorado State 6-3 19-3 10 *
Wyoming 7-2 18-4 5th out
Boise State 5-3 15-6 bubble
Pac-12 Confer. Overall Seed
Arizona 8-1 20-2 1
Utah 7-2 17-4 4
Stanford 6-3 15-6 8
Washington 3-6 14-7 3rd out
UCLA 5-4 13-9 bubble
Southeastern Confer. Overall Seed
Kentucky 8-0 21-0 1
Arkansas 5-3 16-5 6
Georgia 5-3 14-6 9
LSU 5-3 16-5 10 *
Texas A&M 6-2 15-5 10 *
Mississippi 5-3 14-7 12 *
Florida 5-3 12-9 4th out
Tennessee 5-3 13-7 6th out
Alabama 3-5 13-8 bubble
South Carolina 2-6 11-9 bubble
West Coast Confer. Overall Seed
Gonzaga 10-0 22-1 1
BYU 7-4 17-7 7th out
St. Mary’s (CA) 9-2 17-5 bubble

The experts have the following eight teams playing an opening round game in Dayton:

North Carolina St. vs. George Washington

Tulsa vs. Ole Miss

New Mexico St. vs. Texas Southern

Bucknell vs. St. Francis (NY)

The top seeds would be seeded thusly:

East: Virginia

South: Kentucky

Midwest: Gonzaga

West: Arizona

The number two seeds would go here:

East: Wisconsin

South: Villanova

Midwest: Duke

West: Kansas

The 3-Seeds:

East: North Carolina

South: Louisville

Midwest: Iowa St.

West: Notre Dame

The 4-seeds:

East: Maryland

South: West Virginia

Midwest: VCU

West: Utah

December 19, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Final Four

The semifinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and we now know who will play for the Simper Bowl title. If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

In the quarterfinal round, #1 Alabama knocked off #8 Mississippi St. 30-17; #7 Ole Miss upset #2 Oregon 24-22; #3 TCU dismissed #6 Florida St. 42-24; and #5 Baylor won at #4 Ohio St. 40-38/
The format for the Final Four is identical to the actual FBS Playoffs. In today’s simulation, we have #7 Ole Miss facing #3 TCU in the Rose Bowl, followed by #1 Alabama and #5 Baylor facing off in the Sugar Bowl.

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.
Rose Bowl
#3 TCU 27 #7 Ole Miss 10

Stats
First Downs: TC 19 OM 13
Rushing: TC 37-149 OM 32-89
Passing: TC 197 OM 239
Passes: TC 19-33-0 OM 21-39-4
Play-Yds: TC 70-346 OM 71-328
After 1st Qtr: TC 0 OM 0
Half: TC 7 OM 7
After 3rd Qtr: TC 20 OM 7

Sugar Bowl
#5 Baylor 26 #1 Alabama 24

Stats
First Downs BA 20 AL 19
Rushing: BA 26-79 AL 35-243
Passing: BA 419 AL 238
Passes: BA 35-53-1 AL 19-34-3
Play-Yds: BA 79-498 AL 69-481
After 1st Qtr: AL 10 BA 3
Half: AL 17 BA 16
After 3rd Qtr: BA 19 AL 17

And lo and behold, look who will be facing off in Simper Bowl VIII? It’s the two Big 12 teams that were not invited to the real inaugural playoffs. The simulator says that TCU and Baylor are the two best teams. As Former Texas Governor Rick Perry might say, “Oops!”

Return to this site on Tuesday, December 23 for the results of the simulation for the National Championship between Baylor and TCU.

December 27, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 17–January 1, 2012

It Will Be A Happy New Year For Fans Of…

The playoff races are quite easy to figure out as we enter week 17.  In the NFC, the winner of the Giants-Dallas game wins the East Division and earns the number four seed.  The Giants would earn the spot in the event of a tie.

 

Atlanta and Detroit will be the wildcards, and if they finished tied at 10-6, the Falcons will be the number five seed, and the Lions will be the number six seed.

 

San Francisco holds the tiebreaker over New Orleans for the number two seed, so the only way for the Saints to earn a first round bye is to beat Carolina and hope the 49ers lose to the lowly Rams, a team that will be fighting for the overall number one NFL Draft pick.

 

In the AFC, Denver and Oakland are tied for first in the West Division, but the Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders in the event they finish tied at 9-7, 8-7-1, or 8-8.

 

Houston is guaranteed the number three seed no matter what they do this week in their game against Tennessee.

 

New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all have a shot at the top seed in the AFC.  If the Patriots win, they earn the spot.  If the Pats lose, Baltimore will take it away with a win over Cincinnati.  Pittsburgh can take it if both New England and Baltimore lose, and they beat Cleveland.

 

As for the Steelers and Ravens, Baltimore holds the tiebreaker edge.  The team not winning the North Division will be the number five seed.

 

The big story involves the final wildcard spot.  Cincinnati has the best percentage chance of taking the final seed.  If the Bengals beat Baltimore, Cinti is in the playoffs.  Should the Bengals lose, they could still earn the number six seed if the Jets lose or tie to Miami and only one or no AFC West teams finish 9-7.  If both Oakland and Denver win, then the Bengals will miss out on the playoffs if they lose to Baltimore.

 

Oakland has the next best chance at earning the wildcard.  The Raiders must beat San Diego.  Of course, if Denver loses, the Raiders would win the West Division.  If both Oakland and Denver win to finish 9-7, the Raiders will earn a wildcard spot if the Jets beat Miami and Tennessee does not finish 9-7.

 

Denver cannot earn a wildcard spot, because if they win this week, they are the West Division champions.  If the Broncos lose, they can still be the West champs if Oakland loses.

 

The Jets have a somewhat remote shot at making the playoffs if they beat Miami and the Bengals lose.  Tennessee would have to lose to Houston, and either Oakland or Denver would have to lose or tie. 

 

Tennessee has the least likely chance of earning a wildcard spot.  If the Bengals lose, and the Titans beat Houston, there are two ways they can earn the final spot.  The first way would be for the Jets to lose to Miami while both Oakland and Denver win their games.  The second way would be for the Jets to Win while either Oakland or Denver fail to win their games.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen:

 

NFC

The Giants beat Dallas to earn the number four seed.

Atlanta beats Tampa Bay to earn the number five seed.

Detroit becomes the number six seed.

Both San Francisco and New Orleans win, giving the 49ers the number two seed and the bye.

 

AFC

New England beats Buffalo to sew up the number one seed.

Baltimore edges Cincinnati in a near-empty Paul Brown Stadium to earn the number two seed.

Houston already owns the number three seed and rests its starters, but their defense shuts down Tennessee, knocking the Titans out of the playoffs.

Denver comes through in the final minutes to beat Kansas City and win the West, while Oakland handles San Diego to finish 9-7.

Miami beats the Jets to knock them out of the playoffs, thus giving the Raiders the number six seed.

 

Wildcard Round

#6 Detroit at #3 New Orleans

#5 Atlanta at #4 New York Giants

#6 Oakland at #3 Houston

#5 Pittsburgh at #4 Denver

 

Divisional Round

#3 New Orleans at #2 San Francisco

#5 Atlanta at #1 Green Bay

#6 Oakland at #1 New England

#5 Pittsburgh at #2 Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Champions

Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia Eagles

104.3

103.9

103.5

2

7

8

0

362

318

New York Giants

102.2

101.8

102.0

1

8

7

0

363

386

Dallas Cowboys

100.8

101.0

101.0

3

8

7

0

355

316

Washington Redskins

94.0

94.3

92.9

2.5

5

10

0

278

333

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

111.9

111.5

109.7

3.5

14

1

0

515

318

Detroit Lions

104.1

104.3

103.3

3

10

5

0

433

342

Minnesota Vikings

95.0

94.8

93.8

3

3

12

0

327

432

Chicago Bears

94.1

95.5

98.5

3.5

7

8

0

336

328

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

112.5

111.9

106.2

5

12

3

0

502

322

Atlanta Falcons

104.2

104.0

105.7

3.5

9

6

0

357

326

Carolina Panthers

100.2

99.9

99.6

2

6

9

0

389

384

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

89.1

89.3

91.3

3

4

11

0

263

449

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

106.4

106.5

105.6

3.5

12

3

0

346

202

Seattle Seahawks

100.8

100.7

102.1

2

7

8

0

301

292

Arizona Cardinals

97.5

97.5

99.0

3

7

8

0

289

328

St. Louis Rams

90.3

90.0

87.7

2.5

2

13

0

166

373

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.5

109.3

107.9

1.5

12

3

0

464

321

Miami Dolphins

103.2

102.7

102.7

3

5

10

0

310

296

New York Jets

101.6

101.4

99.9

3.5

8

7

0

360

344

Buffalo Bills

94.8

95.0

100.3

4.5

6

9

0

351

385

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

107.3

107.1

105.2

4.5

11

4

0

312

218

Baltimore Ravens

104.9

104.9

106.2

4

11

4

0

354

250

Cincinnati Bengals

98.9

99.0

103.7

2

9

6

0

328

299

Cleveland Browns

94.9

95.0

94.6

1.5

4

11

0

209

294

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

99.6

100.8

102.5

1.5

10

5

0

359

255

Tennessee Titans

99.3

99.0

99.1

1.5

8

7

0

302

295

Jacksonville Jaguars

96.9

96.5

90.9

3

4

11

0

224

316

Indianapolis Colts

92.5

92.3

91.6

3.5

2

13

0

230

411

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

102.1

101.9

101.1

3.5

7

8

0

368

351

Oakland Raiders

97.5

97.4

98.4

1.5

8

7

0

333

395

Kansas City Chiefs

96.3

95.9

95.5

2

6

9

0

205

335

Denver Broncos

94.6

94.8

98.8

1.5

8

7

0

306

383

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, December 27, 2011 @ 3:00 PM EST

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

PHILADELPHIA Washington

12.3

11.6

12.6

9   

46 1/2

ATLANTA Tampa Bay

18.6

18.2

17.9

13   

47   

San Francisco ST. LOUIS

13.6

14.0

15.4

10 1/2

35 1/2

MINNESOTA Chicago

3.9

2.3

-1.7

-1   

40   

GREEN BAY Detroit

11.3

10.7

9.9

-3 1/2

46 1/2

NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas

2.4

1.8

2.0

3   

46 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Carolina

17.3

17.0

11.6

9 1/2

55   

HOUSTON Tennessee

1.8

3.3

4.9

-3   

40 1/2

Baltimore CINCINNATI

4.0

3.9

0.5

2 1/2

38   

Pittsburgh CLEVELAND

10.9

10.6

9.1

7   

36   

JACKSONVILLE Indianapolis

7.4

7.2

2.3

4   

37   

MIAMI New York Jets

4.6

4.3

5.8

1 1/2

41 1/2

NEW ENGLAND Buffalo

16.2

15.8

9.1

11 1/2

51   

San Diego OAKLAND

3.1

3.0

1.2

-3   

49   

Kansas City DENVER

0.2

-0.4

-4.8

-3   

37   

Seattle ARIZONA

0.3

0.2

0.1

-3   

41   

 

December 20, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 16–December 22-26, 2011

Still Some Excitement In Playoff Races

Three of the four wildcard spots are all but assured, but there is still plenty of excitement left in the NFL playoff races.

 

In the NFC East, the Eagles now have a legitimate shot at sneaking in the playoffs as division champions with an 8-8 record.  If Philly beats Dallas and Washington in the final two games, while the Giants lose to the Jets and beat Dallas, then there will be a three-way tie for first at 8-8.  Philadelphia would win the tiebreaker.

 

If Dallas beats Philadelphia this week, and the Giants lose to the Jets, the Cowboys clinch the division title.  If the Giants win out, they will top the Cowboys in the tiebreaker.

 

If for some weird reason the Saints lose to the Falcons this week and the Panthers next week, while Atlanta beats Tampa Bay next week, Atlanta would be the division champion, while the Saints would be a wildcard team.  Don’t count on it happening.

 

In the NFC wildcard chase, the Lions and Falcons grab the spots with one win each.  In the event they both lose out to finish 9-7, then Dallas trumps everybody if the Cowboys finish 9-7 and does not win the NFC East (by virtue of the Giants finishing 9-7).

 

Atlanta would earn a wildcard spot at 9-7 if Dallas does not do so or wins the East over the Giants.

 

Arizona and Seattle can still get in, but only one team can do so—the winner of their game next week.  For the winner of that game to make it, both Atlanta and Detroit must lose out, or Dallas must either win their division or lose out.

 

New England has clinched the AFC East and has the easiest path to homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  Houston has clinched the AFC South.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh have clinched playoff spots, and the Ravens would clinch the AFC North in any tie.

 

The AFC West is still up for grabs, and all four teams are still alive.  Kansas City would win the tiebreaker if all four teams finished 8-8.  That is the Chiefs’ only chance.  Denver clinches the division with two wins or one win and an Oakland loss.  Oakland clinches the division if Denver loses to Kansas City, and the Raiders win twice.  San Diego clinches the division if the Broncos lose twice and the Chargers win twice.

 

As for the final AFC wildcard spot, if the Jets win out, it is theirs.  In multiple 9-7 ties, Tennessee would win a tiebreaker with the Jets and Bengals.  However, if the Raiders finish at 9-7 as well, Oakland would win this four-way tiebreaker.  Oakland would win a three-way tiebreaker with the Jets and Bengals.  Should Oakland win the West and Denver finish 9-7, the Broncos would edge out a 9-7 Jets and 9-7 Bengals team in a three-way tie.

 

San Diego has the tiebreaker edge in a three-way tie with the Bengals and Jets at 9-7, and the Chargers would also earn the wildcard if Tennessee went 9-7 in this scenario.

 

Here is how the PiRate Ratings project the playoff race this week.

 

AFC                                                                NFC

1. New England 13-3                                     1. Green Bay 15-1

2. Houston 12-4                                              2. New Orleans 13-3

3. Pittsburgh 12-4                                          3. San Francisco 12-4

4. Denver 10-6                                               4. New York Giants 9-7

5. Baltimore 11-5                                           5. Atlanta 10-6

6. Cincinnati 10-6                                          6. Detroit 10-6

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Denver

Detroit at San Francisco

Atlanta at New York Giants

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Baltimore at New England

Pittsburgh at Houston

Atlanta at Green Bay

San Francisco at New Orleans

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Pittsburgh at New England

 

Super Bowl XVI

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Super Bowl Champions: Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia Eagles

102.9

101.8

104.2

3.5

6

8

0

342

311

Dallas Cowboys

102.2

101.2

101.5

1.5

8

6

0

348

296

New York Giants

100.8

100.6

99.9

2.5

7

7

0

334

372

Washington Redskins

95.2

95.3

94.8

2.5

5

9

0

252

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

112.2

112.2

109.7

4

13

1

0

480

297

Detroit Lions

101.8

102.2

103.7

3

9

5

0

395

332

Chicago Bears

93.8

95.6

97.6

3.5

7

7

0

315

293

Minnesota Vikings

93.8

92.8

91.0

3

2

12

0

294

406

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

110.4

109.9

106.5

3

11

3

0

457

306

Atlanta Falcons

106.3

106.0

108.3

1.5

9

5

0

341

281

Carolina Panthers

98.0

97.6

98.0

4.5

5

9

0

341

368

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

91.3

92.4

93.5

2.5

4

10

0

247

401

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

106.6

106.5

106.6

3

11

3

0

327

185

Seattle Seahawks

100.6

100.4

101.7

2.5

7

7

0

284

273

Arizona Cardinals

98.0

98.9

102.0

3.5

7

7

0

273

305

St. Louis Rams

90.7

89.1

87.8

2

2

12

0

166

346

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.8

109.2

108.1

4

11

3

0

437

297

New York Jets

103.0

103.4

99.9

3

8

6

0

346

315

Miami Dolphins

102.9

100.6

101.6

1.5

5

9

0

286

269

Buffalo Bills

92.0

92.9

96.0

4

5

9

0

311

371

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.9

107.3

104.8

4

10

4

0

285

218

Baltimore Ravens

105.3

105.9

106.1

1.5

10

4

0

334

236

Cincinnati Bengals

98.4

98.8

100.8

2

8

6

0

305

283

Cleveland Browns

94.5

94.5

93.4

4.5

4

10

0

195

274

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

100.4

103.5

103.4

1

10

4

0

343

236

Tennessee Titans

99.0

99.5

98.2

3

7

7

0

279

278

Jacksonville Jaguars

97.2

95.6

92.8

3

4

10

0

207

293

Indianapolis Colts

91.7

90.2

90.6

1.5

1

13

0

211

395

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

104.4

102.9

103.3

1.5

7

7

0

358

313

Denver Broncos

97.4

99.4

101.0

1.5

8

6

0

292

343

Oakland Raiders

97.3

97.8

96.9

1.5

7

7

0

317

382

Kansas City Chiefs

96.5

96.3

96.4

3

6

8

0

192

319

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, December 20, 2011 @ 6:00 PM EST

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Houston INDIANAPOLIS

5.7

10.3

9.8

6   

40   

KANSAS CITY Oakland

0.7

0.0

1.0

1   

42   

Denver BUFFALO

1.4

2.5

1.0

3   

42   

TENNESSEE Jacksonville

3.3

5.4

6.9

7 1/2

40   

CINCINNATI Arizona

1.9

1.4

0.3

4   

40 1/2

NEW ENGLAND Miami

8.4

10.1

8.0

9 1/2

49   

BALTIMORE Cleveland

14.8

15.4

16.7

13   

38 1/2

NEW YORK JETS NEW YORK GIANTS

2.2

2.8

0.0

3   

46   

WASHINGTON Minnesota

3.9

5.0

6.3

6 1/2

44   

CAROLINA Tampa Bay

8.2

6.7

6.0

7 1/2

48   

PITTSBURGH St. Louis

20.7

22.7

21.5

16   

37 1/2

DETROIT San Diego

0.8

2.3

3.4

2 1/2

52   

San Francisco SEATTLE

4.0

4.1

2.9

2 1/2

38   

DALLAS Philadelphia

2.8

2.9

0.8

1 1/2

50 1/2

GREEN BAY Chicago

21.9

20.1

15.6

12   

45   

NEW ORLEANS Atlanta

8.6

8.4

2.7

6 1/2

53   

 

December 13, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 15–December 15-19, 2011

How Things Stand With Three Weeks To Go

We have been projecting our playoff teams for several weeks, and there has been little movement.  So, beginning this week, we will show you where any possible moves may come from.  First, let’s reveal the legitimate play-off tiebreaking procedures.  There are more than what we show, but the chances that any of them will ever be used is infinitesimal.

 

To Break A Tie Within A Division:

1. Head-to-head record—if one team sweeps the other or goes 1-0-1, stop here.

2. Division W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record

4. Conference W-L record

5. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

6. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

To Break A Tie For The Wildcard Between Two Teams (Different Divisions)

1. Head to head

2. Conference W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record (Must be at least 4 common games)

4. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

5. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

To Break A Tie Of Multiple Teams For the Wildcard:

First, if any of these tied teams are in the same division, apply the division tiebreaker to come up with just one team per division.

 

1. Head-to-head sweep by one team over all the other teams in the tiebreaker

2. Conference W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record (Must be at least 4 common games for all teams)

4. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

5. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

Here is a brief tutorial of all eight divisions after 14 weeks.

 

NFC East

The New York Giants currently hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, because of head-to-head.  Of course, they have to play Dallas in week 17.  Both are 2-2 in the division.  Dallas has a 5-4 conference record while the Giants are just 4-6.  Dallas has two other conference games prior to the finale with the Giants—at Tampa Bay and at home against Philadelphia.  New York hosts Washington this week and must win to have any chance to win the division if they lose to Dallas in week 17 and finish tied in the standings.

 

In the event that New York beats Washington and loses to Dallas, while the Cowboys lose to Philadelphia and beat Tampa Bay, the top two tiebreakers would push.  In common games, the Giants would win the tiebreaker.

 

The key game may very well be the Giants-Jets game.  If the Jets win, Dallas could win the East outright with a win in week 17.  The Cowboys are very much alive in the wildcard race, and at 10-6, their chances of getting in would be high.  There are still too many possibilities to go into all the different tiebreakers.

 

NFC South

New Orleans is up two with three to go, and the Saints will not lose three in a row.  Atlanta is leading in the wildcard race, holding the tiebreaker over Detroit.  The Falcons host Jacksonville and should pick up a ninth win this weekend.  In week 16, they face the Saints in New Orleans, and the Saints are tough at home and will be looking for the #2 seed.  A week 17 home game with Tampa Bay gives the Falcons an excellent chance to clinch the #5 seed.

 

NFC North

Green Bay has already clinched the division and has almost clinched homefield advantage to the Super Bowl. 

 

Detroit holds onto the second wildcard spot at the moment, while Chicago is one game back.  This is an interesting possible tiebreaker.  Both the Lions and Bears face the Packers in Green Bay.  For argument’s sake, let’s say the Packers win both.  Chicago finishes at Minnesota in week 17, and the Bears would have to win and hope the Lions lose to Oakland this week and San Diego next week, because Detroit would win the tiebreaker if they finished tied.  Basically, Chicago has to win out and have Green Bay beat Detroit to move ahead of the Lions.  That means winning at Lambeau Field.

 

NFC West

San Francisco has already clinched the division.  Seattle and Arizona have very slim chances at wildcard bids.  Either will have to win out to finish at 9-7 and then hope that three from among the NFC East runnerup, Atlanta, Detroit, and Chicago fell to 9-7 or worse.

 

AFC East

New England has a commanding lead and would have to lose out not to win the division.  Forget that happening; the Pats are in.

 

The Jets were almost given up for dead a few weeks ago, after they fell to 5-5 with a loss to King Tebow and the Broncos.  Coach Rex Ryan’s troops have won three in a row to take over the second playoff spot.  The Jets have two pivotal games against the NFC East—The Eagles and Giants—before finishing at Miami in week 17.  If they drop one of these games and finish at 10-6, then they could lose out to Tennessee if the Titans close with three wins.  Tennessee has an easy closing three games and could run the table.

 

AFC South

Houston won its first division title with their win over Cincinnati.  They can still earn homefield advantage to the Super Bowl, and if it could play a direct role in determining the wildcard.  The Texans should dismiss Carolina and Indianapolis the next two week to move to 12-3.  They would then earn the top seed with a week 17 victory over the Titans.

 

Here is where things get interesting.  Tennessee has Indianapolis and Jacksonville the next two weeks and should be 9-6 when they close the season at Houston.  If the Jets have lost a game, then the Titans would earn the final wildcard spot with a win.  If Houston is playing for homefield advantage, the Texans would use all their regulars and should win.  If homefield advantage is not an issue, because the Texans have already clinched, or been eliminated, look for Tennessee to win against Houston’s reserves. 

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are tied for first and both headed to the playoffs.  The Steelers have a crucial game at San Francisco this week.  They host the Rams next week before finishing at Cleveland in week 17; that is a trap game if there ever was one.

 

Baltimore has its own trap game.  The Ravens go to San Diego this week, and the Chargers are playing like they were supposed to all along.  Baltimore has been stung on three road games this year, and this one has them travelling three time zones to the West Coast.  The Ravens close with Cleveland at home and Cincinnati on the road.  We expect the Bengals to be out of the race by that time, so Baltimore should be okay for that road game.

 

If the Ravens and Steelers finished tied, Baltimore wins the tiebreaker by virtue of better division record.  Either way, the runnerup will be the #5 seed.

 

AFC West

Can anybody stop the Tebow Express?  Yes, and it will happen this week, when New England wins by more than a touchdown.  However, the Broncos close with Buffalo and Kansas City, two teams the Broncos can beat.  So, let’s figure Denver to finish 10-6.

 

San Diego is 6-7 and thus would be eliminated from the race if that happens.  Oakland is 7-6, so what happens if the Raiders were to win out and finish 7-6?  Denver would still win the tiebreaker based on a better conference record.

 

So, what if Denver goes 9-7, losing at Buffalo in week 16, while Oakland and/or San Diego finish 9-7 as well?  Denver wins all tiebreakers again.  The only way for either Oakland or San Diego to win the division is to pass Denver in the standings.  It looks like Tebow will play in January.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New York Giants

102.3

101.4

102.8

1.5

7

6

0

324

349

Dallas Cowboys

101.5

101.5

101.4

3.5

7

6

0

317

281

Philadelphia Eagles

101.1

99.8

99.8

2

5

8

0

297

292

Washington Redskins

93.7

95.0

94.4

3

4

9

0

229

290

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

114.0

113.2

109.8

3

13

0

0

466

278

Detroit Lions

101.7

103.5

103.1

2.5

8

5

0

367

305

Chicago Bears

95.7

96.6

100.2

4

7

6

0

301

255

Minnesota Vikings

94.6

94.3

92.6

4

2

11

0

274

364

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.6

108.9

105.8

5

10

3

0

415

286

Atlanta Falcons

105.0

104.2

106.0

3

8

5

0

300

267

Carolina Panthers

96.4

96.9

98.2

2

4

9

0

313

355

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

92.0

92.9

94.5

2.5

4

9

0

232

370

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

105.3

106.0

104.7

3.5

10

3

0

307

182

Seattle Seahawks

98.7

99.4

99.9

3

6

7

0

246

259

Arizona Cardinals

98.2

97.8

100.9

2.5

6

7

0

253

288

St. Louis Rams

90.9

90.1

88.0

2

2

11

0

153

326

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.2

108.4

107.8

1.5

10

3

0

396

274

New York Jets

104.8

104.5

102.7

3.5

8

5

0

327

270

Miami Dolphins

102.2

101.0

100.2

3

4

9

0

256

246

Buffalo Bills

92.7

95.5

98.8

4.5

5

8

0

288

341

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

108.2

107.6

105.4

4.5

10

3

0

282

198

Baltimore Ravens

106.9

107.1

107.2

4

10

3

0

320

202

Cincinnati Bengals

98.2

99.2

101.7

2

7

6

0

285

270

Cleveland Browns

94.3

95.1

94.1

2

4

9

0

178

254

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

102.0

103.3

103.9

1.5

10

3

0

330

208

Tennessee Titans

100.7

100.9

100.6

1.5

7

6

0

266

251

Jacksonville Jaguars

98.5

97.1

94.6

3

4

9

0

193

252

Indianapolis Colts

90.0

88.1

86.3

2

0

13

0

184

382

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

102.8

101.3

100.7

2.5

6

7

0

324

299

Denver Broncos

98.0

98.8

102.4

1.5

8

5

0

269

302

Oakland Raiders

97.4

97.5

99.2

1.5

7

6

0

290

354

Kansas City Chiefs

94.7

92.7

92.3

1.5

5

8

0

173

305

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Week: 15—December 15-19, 2011

Vegas Line as of December 13, 4:30 PM EST

 

Home Team in CAPS

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

ATLANTA Jacksonville

9.5

10.1

14.4

11   

42 1/2

Dallas TAMPA BAY

7.0

6.1

4.4

7   

46 1/2

NEW YORK GIANTS Washington

10.1

7.9

9.9

7   

45 1/2

Green Bay KANSAS CITY

13.8

19.0

16.0

14   

45 1/2

New Orleans MINNESOTA

11.0

10.6

9.2

7   

50 1/2

CHICAGO Seattle

1.0

1.2

4.3

3 1/2

35 1/2

BUFFALO Miami

5.0

1.0

-3.1

1   

42 1/2

HOUSTON Carolina

7.1

7.9

7.2

6 1/2

46   

Tennessee INDIANAPOLIS

8.7

10.8

12.3

6 1/2

41   

Cincinnati ST. LOUIS

5.3

7.1

11.7

6   

38 1/2

Detroit OAKLAND

2.8

4.5

2.4

1   

47 1/2

New England DENVER

9.7

8.1

3.9

6   

45 1/2

PHILADELPHIA New York Jets

1.7

2.7

0.9

2 1/2

44   

ARIZONA Cleveland

6.4

5.2

9.3

6 1/2

37 1/2

Baltimore SAN DIEGO

1.6

3.3

4.0

2 1/2

44   

SAN FRANCISCO Pittsburgh

0.6

1.9

2.8

2   

40 1/2

 

December 6, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 14–December 8-12, 2011

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:06 pm

It Can’t Work, So Now Look For More Teams To Try It

How many weeks in a row have you heard some NFL pundit proclaim that Denver’s option offense cannot work, even with the great Tim Tebow running the team and with two excellent running backs in Willis McGahee and Lance Ball?  Throw in a healthy Knowshon Moreno, assuming he will come back full strength from his knee injury in 2012, and this offense could put up more rushing yards than the old Miami Dolphins Super Bowl Champion teams in 1972 and 1973.

 

With Tebow as starting quarterback, Denver has averaged 200 rushing yards per game on 40 attempts for a 5.0 average per rush.  The 1972 Dolphins averaged 211 rushing yards per game (with Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris both topping 1,000 yards rushing) on 44 attempts (4.8 avg. per rush).  The 1958 Cleveland Browns, with the greatest running back ever in Jim Brown, averaged 211 rushing yards per game on 40 attempts (5.3 avg per rush).

 

Let’s address some of the issues these so-called experts drag up every week.

 

1. You cannot win if you don’t have a top passing quarterback.

First of all, Tebow’s QB passer rating is 87.9.  That would place him 10th in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify.  He is ahead of Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, and Jay Cutler this season. 

 

Second, Tebow’s stats are not the liability experts believe them to be.  With him at QB, Coach John Fox has relied on longer passing plays, ala the old days of the American Football League.  Tebow’s numbers look like an old AFL quarterback’s stats.  He is completing 47.5% of his passes, which is about what Joe Namath completed.  He is averaging 14.1 yards per completion, which is what Namath and Daryle Lamonica averaged when the Jets and Raiders led the AFL in offense.  Best of all, Tebow has tossed 10 touchdown passes against just one interception, something that speaks more of Bart Starr at his peak with the Packers.

 

2. Tebow is going to get hit so many times, he will never withstand it and miss several games.

 

Tebow is 6-3 and 245 pounds, and he carries the ball about 10-12 times per game on average.  Arian Foster is 6-1 and 224 and carries the ball about twice that much.  Tebow stands just as much if not more chance of getting hurt standing back in the pocket than when he is on the move, and by being on the move, his momentum makes him more like Csonka and Brown, or like Joe Kapp or Tobin Rote, quarterbacks from the 1960’s that were known to throw their powerful bodies at smaller defensive backs.

 

Did the pundits of the day question Vince Lombardi when he moved quarterback Paul Hornung to running back and give him the ball 15 times a game? 

 

3. Defenses can stop this offense by putting 8 or 9 in the box.

 

All NFL teams put 8 or 9 in the box in short yardage situations and near the goalline, yet teams still convert for first downs and touchdowns.  Most teams have just one running threat, and defenses can key on that one back, and yet the backs frequently find success.

 

Denver has two and sometimes three backs that can threaten the defense on a play.  If the defense overreacts to the threat of the first runner, they could be burned if he is only being used as a fake.  Throw 8 or 9 defenders to the line and make the wrong move, and any back can burn a defense for a long gain. 

 

Also, when Tebow throws, he often goes deep or at least 5-10 yards longer than most teams go these days.  Just one long completion is enough to turn a game around.  Tebow may throw deep 5 or more times in a game, and if he completed just one, that usually will be enough to force defenses to put only 7 in the box.  Just the threat of the deep pass is enough in itself.  He may not be Aaron Rodgers, but he isn’t Jimmy Clausen either.

 

This new option offense being used by the Broncos may be so impossible to succeed in the NFL, that by next year, you could see two or three more teams trying it out.

 

The truth is that any offense that threatens to stretch the field horizontally and vertically has a chance to succeed if the blocking is good enough.  Yes, it is the offensive line that really determines how good an offense will be.  Tebow will succeed or not succeed based on how the five Horses up front perform.

 

Let us take a look at one other team from the past—the 1976 New England Patriots.  Coach Chuck Fairbanks had come to the NFL from Oklahoma, where he made the Sooners the most lethal running team of all time.  His 1971 team averaged over 470 yards rushing per game.  Prior to 1976, the Patriots had failed as a passing team with Jim Plunkett manning the controls.  Fairbanks turned to youthful Steve Grogan to pilot the Pat Attack.  He had Andy Johnson and Sam “Bam” Cunningham as his principle backs in a split backfield.  The Patriots surprised everyone by running to an 11-3-0 record and earning a wildcard berth.  They penned the only loss on the Raiders, blowing Oakland off the field 48-17.

 

In the playoffs, the Patriots faced the Raiders at Oakland in the opening round.  They led 21-10 at the start of the fourth quarter and were leading 21-17 late in the game when Oakland faced a crucial third and long.  Quarterback Ken Stabler dropped back to pass, and fired off target bringing up fourth and long—except, the referee tossed a flag.  He called a roughing the passer penalty on the Patriots and every camera on instant replay showed there was no roughing.  The penalty gave the Raiders a first down, and they scored the winning touchdown in the final moments. 

 

That Patriot team was good enough to win the Super Bowl.  They were definitely better than the Super Bowl Champion Raiders.  New England could not throw the ball at all.  Grogan’s passer rating was a paltry 60.6.  However, he could run the ball, and he averaged better than six yards per attempt.  Overall, the Pats rushed for 211 yards on 42 attempts (5.0 avg per carry).  They averaged only 125 passing yards per game, more than 25 yards less per game than the Broncos when Tebow starts.

 

PiRate Ratings For The Week

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

102.2

103.1

104.5

3.5

7

5

0

283

244

New York Giants

101.6

100.5

102.7

2

6

6

0

287

315

Philadelphia Eagles

98.6

98.5

98.1

2.5

4

8

0

271

282

Washington Redskins

92.9

94.0

93.6

3

4

8

0

202

256

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

113.3

112.3

109.3

3

12

0

0

420

262

Detroit Lions

102.0

104.9

102.3

2.5

7

5

0

333

277

Chicago Bears

95.5

95.1

99.0

4

7

5

0

291

242

Minnesota Vikings

94.3

94.5

91.6

4

2

10

0

246

330

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.8

108.7

106.4

5

9

3

0

393

269

Atlanta Falcons

104.9

104.0

105.6

2.5

7

5

0

269

244

Carolina Panthers

96.5

96.6

98.9

2

4

8

0

290

324

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

94.0

94.6

97.5

2

4

8

0

218

329

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

106.0

106.6

104.9

3

10

2

0

288

161

Seattle Seahawks

98.2

98.9

96.9

3

5

7

0

216

246

Arizona Cardinals

97.5

96.4

100.3

2.5

5

7

0

232

269

St. Louis Rams

91.4

90.4

87.8

2.5

2

10

0

140

296

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

110.0

109.6

108.1

1.5

9

3

0

362

247

Miami Dolphins

104.7

104.1

104.4

4

4

8

0

246

220

New York Jets

103.6

103.7

100.5

3

7

5

0

290

260

Buffalo Bills

93.7

97.0

100.7

4

5

7

0

278

304

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

108.6

108.1

105.0

5

9

3

0

268

195

Baltimore Ravens

107.2

107.7

107.0

4

9

3

0

296

192

Cincinnati Bengals

98.2

98.9

102.5

1.5

7

5

0

266

250

Cleveland Browns

93.9

94.8

94.8

2.5

4

8

0

175

240

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

102.0

101.3

101.6

1.5

9

3

0

310

189

Tennessee Titans

100.5

100.8

102.5

2

7

5

0

249

229

Jacksonville Jaguars

96.5

96.1

93.0

2.5

3

9

0

152

238

Indianapolis Colts

89.7

88.4

85.9

2.5

0

12

0

174

358

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

101.8

99.9

100.1

2.5

5

7

0

287

289

Denver Broncos

98.2

97.8

101.0

1.5

7

5

0

256

292

Oakland Raiders

98.1

99.2

99.9

1.5

7

5

0

274

308

Kansas City Chiefs

95.9

93.6

93.5

1

5

7

0

163

268

 

PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads For This Week

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, December 06, 2011 @ 5:00 PM EST

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

PITTSBURGH Cleveland

19.7

18.3

15.2

14   

39   

BALTIMORE Indianapolis

21.5

23.3

25.1

16 1/2

41   

Houston CINCINNATI

2.3

0.9

-2.4

-3   

37 1/2

GREEN BAY Oakland

18.2

16.1

12.4

11   

52 1/2

NEW YORK JETS Kansas City

10.7

13.1

10.0

9   

36 1/2

DETROIT Minnesota

10.2

12.9

13.2

7   

48 1/2

New Orleans TENNESSEE

7.3

5.9

1.9

4   

48 1/2

MIAMI Philadelphia

10.1

9.6

10.3

3   

44   

New England WASHINGTON

18.6

17.1

16.0

8   

48   

Atlanta CAROLINA

6.4

5.4

4.7

2 1/2

48   

JACKSONVILLE Tampa Bay

5.5

4.0

-2.0

-1   

37 ½

San Francisco ARIZONA

6.0

7.7

2.1

3 1/2

39 ½

DENVER Chicago

4.2

4.2

3.5

3 1/2

35 ½

SAN DIEGO Buffalo

10.6

5.4

1.9

6 1/2

47 ½

DALLAS New York Giants

4.1

6.1

5.3

3 1/2

49   

SEATTLE St. Louis

9.8

11.5

12.1

6 1/2

39 ½

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

We have some changes in this week’s projection.  The Chicago Bears continue to slide with the loss of Jay Cutler and now Matt Forte.  We show the Bears missing out of the playoffs, and there will be a real dogfight for the final playoff berth in the NFC.  Once thought to be out of the race entirely, teams like Arizona and Seattle have something to play for, as 9-7 just might be good enough to finish with the final wildcard spot.  The Detroit Lions could also fall to 9-7, and this would throw both wildcard spots up for grabs.  For now, we will let the Lions keep one and give the other to the Falcons, even though they are limping along.  A 2-2 finish ought to be good enough for Atlanta.

 

In the AFC, we have made only a minor adjustment by moving Pittsburgh ahead of New England for the top spot.  We believe the Steelers have a great chance to win out and get homefield advantage.

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh 13-3

2. New England 13-3

3. Houston 11-5

4. Denver 10-6

5. Baltimore 11-5

6. Cincinnati 11-5

 

N F C

1. Green Bay 16-0

2. San Francisco 13-3

3. New Orleans 13-3

4. Dallas 9-7

5. Detroit 9-7

6. Atlanta 9-7

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Houston

Denver over Baltimore

New Orleans over Detroit

Dallas over Atlanta

 

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

New England over Denver

Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh over New England

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Pittsburgh

November 29, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 13–December 1-5, 2011

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:18 pm

The Ratings And QB Injuries

Most computer ratings base their formulae strictly on the score of games played.  It matters not how team A beat team B 35-21, only that team A won 35-21.

 

The PiRate Ratings are not quite the same as most ratings.  Thus, when Houston suffers the loss of Matt Schaub and then Matt Leinart, forcing T.J. Yates into the starters role, it caused something to happen to the PiRate Ratings.

 

Our ratings are predictive in nature.  We do not rely on average scoring margin combined with strength of schedule to forecast games.  Yes, scoring margin and strength of schedule are part of our three formulae, but we have a different way of looking at the games.

 

First, we do not take a 35-21 Team A win over Team B as strictly a two touchdown win.  We look at how the game played out.  How effective was Team A’s offense against Team B’s defense?

 

Let’s say Team C also beat Team B 35-21 a week earlier, and both games were played at Team B’s home stadium.  What if:

 

Team A gained 400 total yards and could have scored two more touchdowns than they did.  They chose to run the clock out at the end of the game after driving 75 yards to Team B’s 3 yard line.  Earlier in the game, they drove 75 yards to Team B’s 3 and then they chose to go for it on 4th and 2 and came up 3 inches short.

 

Team C gained only 200 yards and scored on an intercepted screen pass and a punt return.  Additionally, Team B gained 200 more yards against Team C than they did against Team A.

 

Are Team A and Team C equal when looking at their games against Team B?  According to most computer ratings, they are.  The PiRate Ratings would estimate on the games played that Team A is about 6 points better than Team C.

 

Because Houston played a good part of their last game with Yates at quarterback (and the same goes for Chicago with Caleb Hanie), we can modify the ratings to show how much weaker the Texans (and Bears) are compare to when they had Schaub and/or Leinart (as well as Cutler).  So, in this week’s ratings, you will see how the loss of quarterbacks has affected our predictions.

 

On the other hand, if Peyton Manning miraculously returned to action this week for Indianapolis to play at New England, we would not have any 2011 data to base his effectiveness.  We could only estimate how many points he would be worth for the Colts, but, we do have a mechanical system in place to account for this.  Indianapolis would be 16 points better off if a healthy Manning was under center; unfortunately, the Colts would still be expected to lose by double digits at Foxboro. 

 

Since all of our ratings have a mean of 100, with every point or fraction thereof we take away from Houston (and Chicago), we have to divvy it up among the other teams.  And, voila:  we have ratings that reflect each team’s current strength and/or weakness.

 

Remember, a rating of 100 is average for a team.  If a team is rated at 106.4, they are 6.4 points better than average, and if they are rated 93.6, they are 6.4 points weaker than average.

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

102.8

104.3

104.8

3.5

7

4

0

270

225

Philadelphia Eagles

101.2

100.3

101.3

2

4

7

0

257

251

New York Giants

100.3

99.5

102.2

1.5

6

5

0

252

277

Washington Redskins

93.9

95.4

95.3

3.5

4

7

0

183

222

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

114.2

113.7

110.2

2.5

11

0

0

382

227

Detroit Lions

102.3

105.2

103.9

2.5

7

4

0

316

246

Chicago Bears

96.8

97.0

97.4

4

7

4

0

288

232

Minnesota Vikings

94.6

94.6

91.6

4.5

2

9

0

214

295

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.4

108.6

107.0

5

8

3

0

362

252

Atlanta Falcons

105.6

104.4

106.2

2.5

7

4

0

259

227

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

97.1

96.9

98.5

2

4

7

0

199

291

Carolina Panthers

93.6

93.8

97.3

2.5

3

8

0

252

305

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

104.9

107.0

104.8

3

9

2

0

262

161

Arizona Cardinals

96.8

95.2

97.4

2

4

7

0

213

256

Seattle Seahawks

95.6

96.6

93.4

2.5

4

7

0

185

232

St. Louis Rams

92.5

90.7

88.7

2.5

2

9

0

140

270

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

112.3

111.7

109.2

2

8

3

0

331

223

New York Jets

102.6

102.5

100.9

3

6

5

0

256

241

Miami Dolphins

102.1

100.9

99.9

3.5

3

8

0

212

206

Buffalo Bills

94.0

97.7

100.6

4

5

6

0

261

281

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Baltimore Ravens

106.6

107.8

108.1

4.5

8

3

0

272

182

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.2

106.2

105.3

4

8

3

0

233

188

Cincinnati Bengals

100.2

101.1

103.1

1

7

4

0

259

215

Cleveland Browns

94.4

95.4

97.1

2.5

4

7

0

165

216

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

100.9

99.8

99.6

1.5

8

3

0

293

179

Tennessee Titans

100.2

100.6

101.2

2

6

5

0

226

212

Jacksonville Jaguars

99.2

98.1

94.5

3.5

3

8

0

138

200

Indianapolis Colts

88.4

85.8

84.4

3

0

11

0

150

327

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Oakland Raiders

100.1

100.4

102.9

1

7

4

0

260

274

San Diego Chargers

99.4

98.5

99.1

3

4

7

0

249

275

Denver Broncos

97.8

98.3

99.9

2

6

5

0

221

260

Kansas City Chiefs

94.9

91.7

94.1

1.5

4

7

0

153

265

 

PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads For This Week’s Games

Week 13: December 1-5, 2011

 

Vegas Line as of 11/29/2011  @ 5:00 PM EST

 

 

Home Team in CAPS

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Philadelphia SEATTLE

3.1

1.2

5.4

3   

44   

Tennessee BUFFALO

2.2

-1.1

-3.4

-1 1/2

43 1/2

CHICAGO Kansas City

5.9

9.3

7.3

7 1/2

36 1/2

MIAMI Oakland

5.5

4.0

0.5

3   

43   

PITTSBURGH Cincinnati

10.0

9.1

6.2

6 1/2

42   

Baltimore CLEVELAND

9.7

9.9

8.5

6 1/2

37 1/2

New York Jets WASHINGTON

5.2

3.6

2.1

3   

38   

Atlanta HOUSTON

3.2

3.1

5.1

2 1/2

39   

TAMPA BAY Carolina

5.5

5.1

3.2

3   

48 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Detroit

12.1

8.4

8.1

9   

54 1/2

Denver MINNESOTA

1.2

1.7

6.3

Pk

37 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis

15.4

19.3

19.1

13   

37 1/2

Dallas ARIZONA

4.0

7.1

5.4

4 1/2

45 1/2

Green Bay NEW YORK GIANTS

12.4

12.7

6.5

7   

53   

NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis

25.9

27.9

26.8

20 1/2

49   

JACKSONVILLE San Diego

3.3

3.1

-1.1

-2 1/2

39   

 

Playoff Projections

There are some changes to this week’s playoff projections.  Detroit has been removed from a wildcard spot, while Atlanta has been added.  Chicago has dropped back to the #6 seed in the NFC with a couple extra losses figured into their finish.

 

In the AFC, Denver is now expected to finish in a tie with Oakland for the West Division title and win the playoff spot based on tiebreakers.

 

Houston is expected to plummet with a 2-3 finish, but the Texans are comfortably ahead of second place Tennessee.  It will cost the Texans a spot in the seedings.

 

N F C

1. Green Bay

2. San Francisco

3. New Orleans

4. Dallas

5. Atlanta

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Denver

4. Houston

5. Baltimore

6. Cincinnati

 

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Chicago

Dallas over Atlanta

Denver over Cincinnati

Baltimore over Houston

 

Divisional Round

Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over San Francisco

Pittsburgh over Denver

New England over Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over New Orleans

Pittsburgh over New England

 

SUPER BOWL

Green Bay over Pittsburgh

November 22, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 12–November 24-28, 2011

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:31 pm

Let’s Talk Turkey

This is not a food blog, but we here at the PiRate Ratings have to tell you our favorite method for cooking a turkey.  It is the easiest way to cook it thoroughly and yet have a moist and tender turkey with lots of delicious gravy.

 

First, purchase an already brined turkey.  We prefer hens to toms because they are more tender and flavorful.

 

We place the brined turkey in a Nesco 18-qt. Roaster, but you can use any type as long as your roaster has a tight-fitting lid.

 

Rub your turkey with your favorite seasonings.  We use an organic, no salt seasoning that has garlic, rosemary, sage, savory, and other seasonings.  Place your turkey in your roaster and then add enough water until the water is about 1 ½ to 2 inches in depth.

 

Add two quartered yellow onions into the water.  Insert a meat thermometer in one of the turkey thighs.  We love our Oxo instant read digital thermometer, so we can always easily read the temperature without opening the lid.  If you have a temperature alarm, set it for 165 degrees.

 

Fasten the lid on the roaster and roast at 350 degrees.  In about two hours, the thermometer should show 165 degrees in the thigh.  It is almost done.  When you reach 165, turn the roaster temperature to 200 degrees.  Watch the meat thermometer closely.  When it reaches 175, your thigh is done, and so is your turkey.  Immediately remove it from the roaster and set on a carving block.  Unlike dry-roasted turkey, it will not rise another 10-15 degrees after removal from the roaster.

 

You will have a juicy bird that is tender enough for grandma and her false teeth.  The turkey is steam-cooked, and so the breast will not be dry and overcooked.

 

Take the cooking liquid and place it in a saucepan.  Heat it and add either milk or a milk substitute (almond milk is an excellent choice and what we use) with a little arrowroot powder or quinoa flour for thickening.  You have delicious gravy.

 

Back To Football

Three excellent games are scheduled for Thanksgiving Day.  Green Bay faces Detroit in what many are comparing to Turkey Day 1962.  The undefeated Packers were on their way to easily taking their second consecutive NFL Championship, while Detroit was definitely the second best pro team.  The Lions sacked Packer quarterback Bart Starr 11 times and upset Vince Lombardi’s best team 26-14.  It was Green Bay’s only blemish, as the Packers were never threatened the rest of the season and then blew out the Giants in the Championship Game.  As for Detroit, the Lions finished 11-3-0 and in second place.  Their reward was a trip to Miami to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Playoff Bowl.  Detroit won 17-10.

 

Dallas hosts Miami, and while the Dolphins are not in the playoff hunt, they are capable of upsetting the Cowboys.  Miami has won three games in a row, and they could be 7-3 instead of 3-7.

 

The primetime game would be great even if it was not a battle of the Harbaugh brothers.  Baltimore is as good as Green Bay when playing at home and as weak as Tampa Bay when playing on the road.  San Francisco could make a case for being a legitimate Super Bowl contender if they can knock off the Ravens.

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

102.7

103.2

104.3

3.5

6

4

0

250

206

Philadelphia Eagles

102.4

101.3

103.2

2.5

4

6

0

237

213

New York Giants

102.0

100.9

102.5

1.5

6

4

0

228

228

Washington Redskins

91.3

93.0

92.4

4.5

3

7

0

160

205

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

113.0

109.8

109.7

2.5

10

0

0

355

212

Chicago Bears

107.6

107.8

108.4

3.5

7

3

0

268

207

Detroit Lions

102.3

104.9

107.7

3

7

3

0

301

219

Minnesota Vikings

93.8

96.5

92.7

5

2

8

0

200

271

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

106.5

106.0

104.2

4.5

7

3

0

313

228

Atlanta Falcons

105.2

104.2

105.2

2.5

6

4

0

235

213

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

96.7

97.2

99.8

2

4

6

0

182

268

Carolina Panthers

92.2

93.1

93.7

2.5

2

8

0

225

286

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

104.9

107.1

107.0

2.5

9

1

0

256

145

Seattle Seahawks

97.0

97.1

98.6

4

4

6

0

168

209

Arizona Cardinals

96.0

94.8

98.2

1.5

3

7

0

190

236

St. Louis Rams

92.1

91.0

88.3

3

2

8

0

120

247

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

109.9

108.8

108.0

2

7

3

0

293

203

New York Jets

102.4

102.4

98.9

2.5

5

5

0

228

217

Miami Dolphins

101.0

99.6

101.4

3

3

7

0

193

186

Buffalo Bills

93.0

96.0

98.0

3.5

5

5

0

237

253

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.4

106.0

104.8

3.5

7

3

0

220

179

Baltimore Ravens

105.4

106.0

104.8

4.5

7

3

0

256

176

Cincinnati Bengals

99.9

101.2

102.8

2

6

4

0

236

195

Cleveland Browns

93.5

94.2

94.1

2.5

4

6

0

145

193

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

110.0

109.1

108.1

1.5

7

3

0

273

166

Tennessee Titans

99.4

99.7

97.2

2

5

5

0

203

195

Jacksonville Jaguars

98.5

97.1

92.9

3

3

7

0

125

180

Indianapolis Colts

88.6

86.7

86.1

2.5

0

10

0

131

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

99.6

98.6

96.7

3.5

4

6

0

236

259

Oakland Raiders

97.7

98.4

101.1

1

6

4

0

235

254

Denver Broncos

96.4

96.9

99.4

2

5

5

0

205

247

Kansas City Chiefs

93.5

91.7

89.9

1

4

6

0

144

252

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, 11/22/2011 @ 4:00 PM EST

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Green Bay DETROIT

7.7

1.9

-1.0

6 1/2

56   

DALLAS Miami

5.2

7.1

6.4

7   

44   

BALTIMORE San Francisco

5.0

3.4

2.3

3   

38 1/2

Arizona ST. LOUIS

0.9

0.8

6.9

-3   

40 1/2

NEW YORK JETS Buffalo

11.9

8.9

3.4

8   

42 1/2

CINCINNATI Cleveland

8.4

9.0

10.7

7 1/2

37 1/2

Houston JACKSONVILLE

8.5

9.0

12.2

3   

37 1/2

Carolina INDIANAPOLIS

1.1

3.9

5.1

3 1/2

44 1/2

TENNESSEE Tampa Bay

4.7

4.5

-0.6

3   

42   

ATLANTA Minnesota

13.9

10.2

15.0

9 1/2

44 1/2

Chicago OAKLAND

8.9

8.4

6.3

-4 1/2

41 1/2

SEATTLE Washington

9.7

8.1

10.2

4   

37   

New England PHILADELPHIA

5.0

5.0

2.3

3   

50 1/2

SAN DIEGO Denver

6.7

5.2

0.8

6 1/2

43 1/2

Pittsburgh KANSAS CITY

11.9

13.3

13.9

10   

39 1/2

NEW ORLEANS New York Giants

9.0

9.6

6.2

7   

50 1/2

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

Wildcard Round

#6 Detroit Lions @ #3 New Orleans Saints

#5 Atlanta Falcons @ #4 Dallas Cowboys

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals @ #3 Houston Texans

#5 Baltimore Ravens @ #4 Oakland Raiders

 

Divisional Round

#4 Dallas Cowboys @ #1 Green Bay Packers

#3 New Orleans Saints @ #2 San Francisco 49ers

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals @ #1 New England Patriots

#4 Oakland Raiders @ #2 Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay Packers Over Pittsburgh Steelers

November 15, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 11–November 17-21, 2011

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:26 pm

The Playoff Chase

This is the last week for byes in the schedule, so after Monday night, all 32 teams will have six games to go in the regular season.  Let’s take a look at each of the eight division races.

 

NFC East

New York Giants 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Phi, at NO, GB, at Dal, Was, at NYJ, Dal

 

Dallas Cowboys 5-4-0

Games Remaining:  at Was, Mia, at Ari, NYG, at TB, Phi, at NYG

 

Our Take

We see both teams finishing 10-6-0, and according to the way we see the games going, Dallas will win the tiebreaker based on better conference record.  The Giants will miss the playoffs altogether according to this scenario.

 

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 9-0-0

Games Remaining: TB, at Det, at NYG, Oak, at KC, Chi, Det

 

Detroit Lions 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Car, GB, at NO, Min, at Oak, SD, at GB

 

Chicago Bears 6-3-0

Games Remaining: SD, at Oak, KC, at Den, Sea, at GB, at Min

 

Our Take

Green Bay should lose at least one game, and we believe it will be the same one their great 1962 championship team lost—at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.

 

Chicago has a perfect schedule; the Bears could easily go 6-1 and should go at least 5-2 to earn a wildcard at 11-5-0.

 

Detroit has an excellent shot at 11-5-0 as well and should be at least 10-6-0.  At 10-6-0, we have them winning all the key tiebreakers to earn the final playoff spot.

 

NFC South

New Orleans Saints 7-3-0

Games Remaining: NYG, Det, at Ten, at Min, Atl, Car

 

Atlanta Falcons 5-4-0

Games Remaining: Ten, Min, at Hou, at Car, Jax, at NO, TB

 

Our Take

We feel this race is over after last Sunday.  The Falcons’ gamble did not pay off, and their loss is a playoff spot.  We believe the best Atlanta can do with their remaining schedule is go 5-2, and they will need to go 6-1 to win a wildcard spot.

 

New Orleans could make a run at the number two seed, but we believe they will have to settle for number three at 12-4-0 or 13-3-0.

 

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 8-1-0

Games Remaining: Ari, at Bal, Stl, at Ari, Pit, at Sea, at Stl

 

Our Take

This race has been over for quite some time.  Even if the 49ers lose their last seven games, they could still win this division by two games.  They are playing for a first round bye and home field advantage.  We do not believe San Francisco can win out, and we believe they will drop two or three games more, but the 49ers will be the number two seed.

 

AFC East

New England Patriots 6-3-0

Games Remaining: KC, at Phi, Ind, at Was, at Den, Mia, Buf

 

New York Jets 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Den, Buf, at Was, KC, at Phi, NYG, at Mia

 

Buffalo 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Mia, at NYJ, Ten, at SD, Mia, Den, at NE

 

Our Take

New England has this division wrapped up, and the Patriots have an easier schedule thanks to a date with the Colts.  The road to the overall conference number one seed is an easy parkway for the Pats; luck once again is on their side with Pittsburgh and Houston having quarterback issues that will cost them game(s).

 

The Jets may have to go 6-1 to qualify as a wildcard, and we do not see them doing so. 

 

As for the Bills, they are the NFL’s equivalent of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Pirates were in first place as late as the last week of July, and they finished a distant fourth in the NL Central.  The Bills may not slide to last place, but we see them finishing under .500 after starting 5-2.

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3-0

Games Remaining: at KC, Cin, Cle, at SF, Stl, at Cle

 

Baltimore Ravens 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Cin, SF, at Cle, Ind, at SD, Cle, at Cin

 

Cincinnati Bengals 6-3-0

Games Remaining: at Bal, Cle, at Pit, Hou, at Stl, Ari, Bal

 

Our Take

Look at that easy schedule.  The Steelers have one difficult game remaining, and even if they get toasted at San Francisco, we cannot see Pittsburgh losing more than twice the rest of the way.  We really can only see them losing one more time, even with Ben Roethlisberger’s hand issue.

 

Baltimore is the one team that still enjoys a huge home field advantage.  They play like New England at home and like Cleveland on the road.  They will win their four remaining home games and pull off one on the road to sew up a wildcard spot.

 

Cincinnati must defeat Cleveland, St. Louis, Arizona, and Baltimore (at home), and then they need to pull off an upset.  With Houston in dire straits at quarterback, we feel the Bengals can win that one and earn a wildcard berth.  Marvin Lewis should get NFL Coach of the Year if he can guide this team to the playoffs.

 

AFC South

Houston Texans 7-3-0

Games Remaining: at Jax, Atl, at Cin, Car, at Ind, Ten

 

Tennessee Titans 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Atl, TB, at Buf, NO, at Ind, Jax, at Hou

 

Our Take

Houston must try to finish the season with Matt Leinart running the offense and with no Andre Johnson to toss to.  Their defense is missing Mario Williams, yet, if the season ended today, the Texans would be the number one seed in the AFC.  That will change, as the Texans will take a tumble following their bye week.  We expect Houston to fare no better than 3-3 in the final six weeks and as weak as 2-4.  Still, at 9-7-0, they can win this unexpectedly weak division.

 

Tennessee can beat the weak teams, and the teams that play poorly on the road, but against quality competition, they do not compete.  The Titans could sneak in at 9-7-0 if the Texans totally collapse, but we feel this is an 8-8-0 team.

 

AFC West

Oakland Raiders 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Min, Chi, at Mia, at GB, Det, at KC, SD

 

San Diego Chargers 4-5-0

Games Remaining: at Chi, Den, at Jax, Buf, Bal, at Det, at Oak

 

Denver Broncos 4-5-0

Games Remaining: NYJ, at SD, at Min, Chi, NE, at Buf, KC

 

Kansas City Chiefs 4-5-0

Games Remaining: at NE, Pit, at Chi, at NYJ, GB, Oak, at Den

 

Our Take

One team has to finish 8-8-0 or maybe 9-7-0, and all four have tough finishing schedules (any game outside of the division has to be considered tough for these four).

 

Oakland has a one game lead over the other three, and for that reason alone, we will go with the Raiders to return to the playoffs.

 

San Diego has lost more than they have won to this point, and the toughest part of their schedule is still to come.  We cannot fathom the Chargers going 5-2 from here to the end of the season.

 

Kansas City dug themselves too big a hole to dig out of and stand on top of the pile.  They could even lose out against this schedule.

 

As for Denver, what can we say?  They find ways to win when they complete two passes!  Tim Tebow is a 21st Century Bobby Douglass.  He could very well lead the NFL in yards per rush, just like Douglas did in 1972, when he almost rushed for 1,000 yards.  Douglass didn’t take the Bears to the playoffs, and Tebow won’t take the Broncos there either.

 

As We See The Playoffs (this week)

Wildcard Round

#3 New Orleans Saints over #6 Detroit Lions

#5 Chicago Bears over  #4 Dallas Cowboys

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals over #3 Houston Texans

#4 Oakland Raiders over #5 Baltimore Ravens

 

Divisional Round

#1 Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

#2 San Francisco 49ers over New Orleans Saints

 

#1 New England Patriots over Cincinnati Bengals

#2 Pittsburgh Steelers over Oakland Raiders

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay Packers over San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots

 

Super Bowl

Hey, haven’t we been here before?

Green Bay Packers in a repeat over Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Back To The Present Time—Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

103.1

103.9

103.9

3.5

5

4

0

223

182

New York Giants

103.1

101.9

103.2

1.5

6

3

0

218

211

Philadelphia Eagles

101.2

101.0

101.1

2.5

3

6

0

220

203

Washington Redskins

90.9

92.5

91.7

4.5

3

6

0

136

178

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

113.6

113.3

109.5

2.5

9

0

0

320

186

Chicago Bears

107.5

107.2

107.9

3.5

6

3

0

237

187

Detroit Lions

102.0

104.0

106.0

3

6

3

0

252

184

Minnesota Vikings

94.4

94.3

93.9

5

2

7

0

179

244

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

106.5

105.7

104.7

4.5

7

3

0

313

228

Atlanta Falcons

105.1

103.6

103.9

2.5

5

4

0

212

196

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

96.1

96.2

98.7

2

4

5

0

156

233

Carolina Panthers

92.5

92.7

97.6

2.5

2

7

0

190

237

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

104.6

106.7

106.4

2.5

8

1

0

233

138

Arizona Cardinals

96.3

94.9

99.7

1.5

3

6

0

183

213

St. Louis Rams

94.6

92.3

90.6

3

2

7

0

113

223

Seattle Seahawks

94.5

95.2

96.2

4

3

6

0

144

202

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

107.6

108.5

106.0

2

6

3

0

259

200

New York Jets

104.2

104.0

101.8

2.5

5

4

0

215

200

Miami Dolphins

98.6

97.7

97.8

3

2

7

0

158

178

Buffalo Bills

95.4

98.5

97.7

3.5

5

4

0

229

218

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.4

106.5

104.1

3.5

7

3

0

220

179

Baltimore Ravens

105.9

105.9

105.2

4.5

6

3

0

225

152

Cincinnati Bengals

99.4

100.0

102.3

2

6

3

0

212

164

Cleveland Browns

92.7

93.0

92.9

2.5

3

6

0

131

183

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

110.0

109.3

107.6

1.5

7

3

0

273

166

Tennessee Titans

99.5

100.2

99.7

2

5

4

0

186

172

Jacksonville Jaguars

99.3

97.7

95.3

3

3

6

0

115

166

Indianapolis Colts

88.6

86.6

87.0

2.5

0

10

0

131

300

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

99.7

98.9

97.0

3.5

4

5

0

216

228

Oakland Raiders

97.1

98.4

99.2

1

5

4

0

208

233

Kansas City Chiefs

95.8

93.6

93.8

1

4

5

0

141

218

Denver Broncos

94.6

96.0

97.7

2

4

5

0

188

234

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads.

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 10: November 17-21, 2011          
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, November 15 @ 4:00 PM EST         
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New York Jets DENVER 7.6 6.0 2.1 4 1/2 40 1/2
ATLANTA Tennessee 8.1 5.9 6.7 6    44   
MIAMI Buffalo 6.2 2.2 3.1 2 1/2 43   
BALTIMORE Cincinnati 11.0 10.4 7.4 7    40 1/2
Jacksonville CLEVELAND 4.1 2.2 -0.1 1    35 1/2
MINNESOTA Oakland 2.3 0.9 -0.3 -1 1/2 45   
DETROIT Carolina 12.5 14.3 11.4 7    47 1/2
GREEN BAY Tampa Bay 20.0 19.6 13.3 14 1/2 49   
Dallas WASHINGTON 7.7 6.9 7.7 7 1/2 41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Arizona 10.8 14.3 9.2 9 1/2 41 1/2
ST. LOUIS Seattle 3.1 0.1 -2.6 2    39   
CHICAGO San Diego 11.3 11.8 14.4 3 1/2 45   
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.4 2.4 3.6 4    47   
NEW ENGLAND Kansas City 13.8 11.6 14.2 14 1/2 47   
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