PiRate Ratings Bracketology Report for Monday, February 9, 2015

We at the PiRate Ratings have realized that the public can find much more accurate bracketology data than that provided by the famous bracketologists at the major media outlets.  We have known this because as regular annual participants in the Football Prediction Tracker, you don’t see the most famous computer ranking services finishing at the top.  Looking at this week’s Basketball Prediction Tracker record of picking winning teams (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/bbresults.php), you will see that it is our new experimental PiRate White and PiRate Red rankings that sit at number one and number two at 77.2% and 76.5%.  It’s always some math genius, sports fan professor of mathematics at some university (or somebody like us who got lucky and finished first twice before).

 

Bracketology is not an exact science.  There is no sabermetric formula you can plug into a computer and spit out the 68 teams that should be selected for the tournament.  There is no Batter’s Wins, Pitcher’s Wins, and Fielding Wins that show you the Mike Trout’s of college basketball.

 

Instead, we have smart guys like Patrick Stevens of the Syracuse Post-Standard newspaper, who for several years has been putting out bracketology selections considerably more accurate than the famous gurus at the major outlets.  Stevens is not alone.  We have isolated more than two dozen bracketologists with five or more years experience that all dust the major competition in accuracy.

 

When you combine these less known but more accurate hard-working guys, their composite selections are about as accurate as you will find anywhere.  For instance, two years ago, a couple successfully selected all 68 teams, and the rest picked 66 or 67 teams out of 68 correctly.  As a combined group, the composite successfully picked all 68 teams correctly.  Last year, the group as a whole hit on 67 of 68.

 

We first became interested in finding a more accurate bracketology experience when most of the gurus failed to select Virginia Commonwealth to make the Big Dance in 2011, and the Rams merely advanced to the Final Four.  One of the big-time selectors failed to include Dayton in last year’s predictions, and the Flyers advanced to the Elite 8.

 

And so, continuing today and appearing frequently until Selection Sunday, we will monitor our 20-something unknown Einsteins and keep what we call the PiRate Composite Bracketology rankings.

 

Report for Monday, February 09, 2015

 

Let’s begin with the one-bid leagues.  21 conferences will send just one team to the NCAA Tournament.  In the case of 20 of these 21, the conference tournament winner will receive that lone bid.

 

The Ivy League may never hold a dedicated conference tournament, but many times in the past, a post-season playoff for first place has given the league a quasi-tournament.  In the Ivy, any team finishing tied for first qualifies for a playoff, even if one of the co-champs swept the other in the regular season.  Harvard and Yale could very well play in March to determine the league champ.

 

For the one bid leagues, we will name the top contenders at the present time based on conference won-lost record.

 

America East	Conference	Overall
Albany	11-0	16-7
Vermont	9-2	14-10
New Hampshire	7-4	14-10
Stony Brook	6-4	15-10
Atlantic Sun	Conference	Overall
Florida Gulf Coast	7-1	17-7
North Florida	7-1	15-10
USC Upstate	5-3	18-7
Big Sky	Conference	Overall
Sacramento St.	10-1	16-6
Eastern Washington	9-1	18-5
Montana	8-3	12-10
Northern Arizona	7-3	12-11
Northern Colorado	7-4	12-10
Big South	Conference	Overall
High Point	8-4	17-7
Coastal Carolina	8-4	17-7
Radford	8-4	17-8
Gardner-Webb	8-4	16-9
Charleston Southern	8-4	14-9
Winthrop	8-4	13-10
UNC Asheville	8-4	12-11
Big West	Conference	Overall
UC Davis	8-1	18-4
UC Irvine	7-2	14-9
Long Beach St.	7-2	13-12
Colonial	Conference	Overall
William & Mary	9-3	15-8
Northeastern	8-4	16-9
UNC Wilmington	8-4	13-10
Hofstra	7-5	16-9
James Madison	7-5	14-11
Drexel	7-5	9-14
Conference USA	Conference	Overall
Louisiana Tech	9-2	18-6
Western Kentucky	9-2	16-7
U A B	9-2	13-11
U T E P	8-3	16-7
Old Dominion	7-3	18-4
UT San Antonio	6-5	12-10
Middle Tennessee	6-5	13-11
Horizon	Conference	Overall
Valparaiso	9-2	22-4
Cleveland St.	9-2	15-10
Green Bay	8-2	19-5
Oakland	7-3	12-13
Ivy League	Conference	Overall
Harvard	5-1	15-5
Yale	5-1	16-7
Princeton	3-2	10-11
Columbia	3-3	11-9
Cornell	3-3	11-11
M A C	Conference	Overall
Bowling Green	7-3	15-6
Akron	7-3	16-7
Kent St.	7-3	16-7
Toledo	7-3	15-8
Central Michigan	6-4	16-5
Buffalo	6-4	15-7
Western Michigan	5-5	14-9
M A A C	Conference	Overall
Iona	11-2	18-6
Rider	10-4	16-9
Manhattan	9-5	12-11
Monmouth	9-5	13-12
M E A C	Conference	Overall
UNC Central	10-0	18-6
Norfolk St.	9-1	16-9
Howard	6-3	12-11
UM-Eastern Shore	6-4	13-12
South Carolina St.	6-4	9-16
Northeast	Conference	Overall
St. Francis (NY)	10-2	16-9
Robert Morris	8-4	12-12
Bryant	8-4	11-12
St. Francis (PA)	7-5	13-10
Mt. St. Mary‘s	7-5	11-12
Ohio Valley	Conference	Overall
Murray St.	11-0	21-4
Tenn-Martin	7-3	15-8
Belmont	7-4	15-9
Eastern Illinois	7-4	14-10
Morehead St.	7-4	12-14
Eastern Kentucky	6-4	14-9
Patriot	Conference	Overall
Bucknell	8-4	13-12
Colgate	8-4	11-14
Lehigh	7-5	13-10
Lafayette	6-5	14-8
Southern	Conference	Overall
Wofford	11-1	20-5
Chattanooga	9-3	16-9
Mercer	9-3	14-11
Western Carolina	7-6	12-13
Southland	Conference	Overall
Stephen F. Austin	9-0	19-3
Sam Houston St.	10-1	18-5
Northwestern St.	7-3	12-9
Texas A&M-C.C.	7-3	12-10
Summit	Conference	Overall
North Dakota St.	9-2	17-7
South Dakota St.	9-3	18-8
Oral Roberts	6-4	13-11
I P F W	6-5	13-11
Sun Belt	Conference	Overall
La. Monroe	10-3	16-8
Georgia Southern	9-3	16-5
Georgia St.	9-4	16-8
UT-Arlington	7-5	13-9
La. Lafayette	7-6	13-11
S W A C	Conference	Overall
Texas Southern	8-2	11-12
Jackson St.	5-5	7-16
Prairie View	5-5	7-16
Alabama A&M	5-5	6-14
W A C	Conference	Overall
New Mexico St.	7-1	15-10
U M K C	5-3	10-15
Seattle	4-4	11-11

 

The remaining 11 conferences will divvy up the 47 remaining bids.  For these conferences, we will list the teams by the average seed given to them by our two dozen plus experts.  If an expert left a team off his list, we assign a seed of “20” to this team to lower their overall seeding.  Thus, it is better to be the last team in the Big Dance on every bracketologist’s list and seeded at 13 than to be a 12-seed on 80% and not included on 20%.

 

American	Conference	Overall	Seed
Tulsa	10-1	17-6	12
SMU	10-2	19-5	7
Cincinnati	8-3	17-6	7
Temple	8-3	17-7	13
Memphis	6-4	14-9	Out
Connecticut	6-4	13-9	Out
Atlantic 10	Conference	Overall	Seed
V C U	8-2	18-5	5
Rhode Island	8-2	16-5	Bubble
Dayton	7-3	17-5	10
George Washington	7-3	17-6	1st out
U Mass	7-3	14-9	8th out
Davidson	6-4	15-6	Bubble
St. Bonaventure	6-4	13-8	Out
A C C	Conference	Overall	Seed
Virginia	9-1	21-1	1
Notre Dame	9-3	21-4	4
North Carolina	8-3	18-6	3
Duke	7-3	20-3	1
Louisville	7-3	19-4	3
Clemson	6-5	14-9	7th out
Pittsburgh	5-5	16-8	Bubble
Miami (FL)	5-5	15-8	13
N.C. State	5-6	14-10	6th out
Big East	Conference	Overall	Seed
Villanova	8-2	21-2	2
Butler	8-3	18-6	5
Providence	7-4	17-7	6
Georgetown	7-5	15-8	7
Xavier	6-6	15-9	9
DePaul	6-6	12-13	Out
Seton Hall	5-6	15-8	12
St. John’s	4-6	15-8	12
Big Ten	Conference	Overall	Seed
Wisconsin	9-1	21-2	2
Maryland	7-4	19-5	4
Ohio St.	7-4	18-6	8
Indiana	7-4	17-7	7
Purdue	7-4	15-9	4th out
Iowa	6-4	15-8	8
Michigan St.	6-4	15-8	11
Illinois	6-5	16-8	11
Michigan	6-6	13-11	Bubble
Minnesota	4-7	15-9	Bubble
Big 12	Conference	Overall	Seed
Kansas	8-2	19-4	2
Iowa St.	7-3	17-5	3
Oklahoma	7-4	16-7	4
Baylor	6-4	18-5	3
West Virginia	6-4	18-5	6
Oklahoma St.	6-5	16-7	6
Kansas St.	5-6	12-12	Out
Texas	4-6	15-8	8
Missouri Valley	Conference	Overall	Seed
Northern Iowa	11-1	22-2	5
Wichita St.	11-1	21-3	5
Mountain West	Conference	Overall	Seed
Wyoming	8-3	19-5	10th out
San Diego St.	8-3	18-6	9
Boise St.	7-3	17-6	5th out
Colorado St.	7-4	20-4	9
Pac-12	Conference	Overall	Seed
Arizona	8-2	20-3	2
Utah	8-2	18-4	4
Oregon	7-4	17-7	3rd out
Oregon St.	7-4	16-7	Out
Stanford	7-4	16-7	10
U C L A	6-5	14-10	2nd out
Washington	3-8	14-9	Bubble
S E C	Conference	Overall	Seed
Kentucky	10-0	23-0	1
Arkansas	7-3	18-5	6
Texas A&M	7-3	16-6	10
Ole Miss	7-3	16-7	9
L S U	6-4	17-6	10
Georgia	6-4	15-7	8
Tennessee	5-5	13-9	Bubble
Florida	5-5	12-11	9th out
Alabama	4-6	14-9	Bubble
West Coast	Conference	Overall	Seed
Gonzaga	12-0	24-1	1
Saint Mary’s	10-2	18-5	Bubble
B Y U	8-5	18-8	Bubble
Pepperdine	8-5	15-9	Out

 

Using the average seeding of all the teams, here is how the experts see the top four seeds per region as of today.

 

South	Seed
Kentucky	1
Arizona	2
Louisville	3
Maryland	4
East	Seed
Virginia	1
Villanova	2
Iowa St.	3
Oklahoma	4
Midwest	Seed
Duke	1
Kansas	2
North Carolina	3
Utah	4
West	Seed
Gonzaga	1
Wisconsin	2
Baylor	3
Notre Dame	4

 

This is how our experts seed the eight teams that must play an opening round game in Dayton.  This includes the last four teams making the NCAA Tournament as #12 or #13 seeds as well as the lowest four-seeded teams among those that receive automatic bids.

 

Opening Round Games at Dayton

Miami (FL.) vs. St. John’s

Temple vs. Seton Hall

America East Champion vs. Patriot Champion

S W A C Champion vs. Northeast Champion

 

How about the top five teams from conferences that will receive just one bid?  There are five teams seen as capable of beating a higher seed, including one team deemed to be talented enough to sneak into the Sweet 16.

 

Top 5 Teams From 1-bid Leagues
Old Dominion	Sweet 16
Stephen F. Austin	1 win
Louisiana Tech	1 win
Valparaiso	1 win
Murray St.	1 win

 

So you want some dark horse candidates to sneak into the Final Four.  Here are four teams that have qualities that can make it hard for opponents to prepare to play on short notice.  This is a quartet of teams that could make an unexpected run to the Final Four.

 

4 Darkhorse Final 4 Candidates

Indiana

Iowa St.

Northern Iowa

Utah

 

Every year, a top-6 seed loses its opening round game in such a way that it really does not look like an upset.  In the past Georgetown and Vanderbilt have lost multiple times to double-digit seeds in such a way that the underdog looked like it could win nine times out of 10.  Here are the teams this season most vulnerable to losing a first round game as the favorite, while looking like they might lose nine times out of 10 to the “upset” winner.

 

5 1st Round Upset Candidates

Arkansas

Maryland

Notre Dame

Oklahoma St.

Villanova

 

Congratulations to Georgetown!  The Hoyas appear to have the talent to win that first round game this year.

 

Here are the 10 most vulnerable at-large teams this week.  A couple of unexpected losses or too many unexpected losses will send these teams to the NIT.

 

Last 10 IN	Overall Seed
Miami (FL)	68
Temple	67
Seton Hall	66
St. John’s	65
Tulsa	64
Michigan St.	63
Illinois	62
Texs A&M	61
L S U	60
Stanford	59

 

Here are the top 10 teams waiting to move up into the field if and when some of the last 10 flub up.  These teams are one winning steak or a big win or two away from moving into the field of 68.

 

1st 10 Out	Overall Seed
George Washington	69
U C L A	70
Oregon	71
Purdue	72
Boise St.	73
N. C. St.	74
Clemson	75
U Mass	76
Florida	77
Wyoming	78

 

We will have another update next Monday, February 16.  It won’t be long until the first conference tournaments commence.  Three weeks from tomorrow, the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, and Patriot League tournaments start.

 

We will have the conference tournament seeds and score updates daily starting with Monday, March 2.

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Report for Monday, February 2, 2015

If its’ the first Monday in February, then it’s the annual first installment of the PiRate Composite Bracketology Report.

We at the PiRate Ratings have realized that the public can find much more accurate bracketology data than that provided by the famous bracketologists at the major media outlets.  We have known this because as regular annual participants in the Football Prediction Tracker, you don’t see the most famous computer ranking services finishing at the top.  It’s always some math genius, sports fan professor of mathematics at some university (or somebody like us who got lucky and finished first twice before).

Bracketology is not an exact science.  There is no sabermetric formula you can plug into a computer and spit out the 68 teams that should be selected for the tournament.  There is no Batter’s Wins, Pitcher’s Wins, and Fielding Wins that show you the Mike Trout’s of college basketball.

Instead, we have smart guys like Patrick Stevens of the Syracuse Post-Standard newspaper, who for several years has been putting out bracketology selections considerably more accurate than the famous gurus at the major outlets.  Stevens is not alone.  We have isolated more than two dozen bracketologists with five or more years experience that all dust the major competition in accuracy.

When you combine these less known but more accurate hard-working guys, their composite selections are about as accurate as you will find anywhere.  For instance, two years ago, a couple successfully selected all 68 teams, and the rest picked 66 or 67 teams out of 68 correctly.  As a combined group, the composite successfully picked all 68 teams correctly.  Last year, the group as a whole hit on 67 of 68.

We first became interested in finding a more accurate bracketology experience when most of the gurus failed to select Virginia Commonwealth to make the Big Dance in 2011, and the Rams merely advanced to the Final Four.  One of the big-time selectors failed to include Dayton in last year’s predictions, and the Flyers advanced to the Elite 8.

And so, starting today and appearing frequently until Selection Sunday, we will monitor our 20-something unknown Einsteins and keep what we call the PiRate Composite Bracketology rankings.

Report for Monday, February 02, 2015

Let’s begin with the one-bid leagues.  21 conferences will send just one team to the NCAA Tournament.  In the case of 20 of these 21, the conference tournament winner will receive that lone bid.  The Ivy League may never hold a dedicated conference tournament, but many times in the past, a post-season playoff for first place has given the league a quasi-tournament.  In the Ivy, any team finishing tied for first qualifies for a playoff, even if one of the co-champs swept the other in the regular season.

For the one bid leagues, we will name the top contenders at the present time based on conference won-lost record.

America East	Confer.	Overall
Albany	9-0	14-7
Vermont	7-2	12-10
Stony Brook	6-3	15-9
New Hampshire	6-3	13-9
Atlantic Sun	Confer.	Overall
Florida Gulf Coast	6-1	16-7
North Florida	6-1	14-10
USC-Upstate	4-3	16-7
Big Sky	Confer.	Overall
Sacramento St.	9-1	15-6
Eastern Washington	7-1	16-5
Montana	7-2	11-9
Northern Colorado	6-3	11-9
Big South	Confer.	Overall
High Point	8-2	17-5
Radford	7-3	16-7
Charleston Sou.	7-3	13-8
UNC-Asheville	7-3	11-10
Coastal Carolina	6-4	15-7
Gardner-Webb	6-4	14-9
Winthrop	6-4	11-10
Big West	Confer.	Overall
UC-Davis	6-1	16-4
UC-Irvine	6-1	13-8
Long Beach St.	6-1	12-11
Colonial	Confer.	Overall
William & Mary	8-2	14-7
Northeastern	7-3	15-8
UNC-Wilmington	7-3	12-9
James Madison	6-4	13-10
Conference USA	Confer.	Overall
Louisiana Tech	8-1	17-5
Western Kentucky	8-1	15-6
UAB	7-2	11-11
Old Dominion	6-3	17-4
UTEP	6-3	14-7
Horizon	Confer.	Overall
Valparaiso	7-2	20-4
Cleveland St.	7-2	13-10
Green Bay	6-2	17-5
Oakland	6-2	11-12
Ivy League	Confer.	Overall
Yale	4-0	15-6
Harvard	3-1	13-5
Princeton	2-1	9-10
Mid-American	Confer.	Overall
Akron	6-2	15-6
Kent St.	6-2	15-6
Central Michigan	5-3	15-4
Toledo	5-3	13-8
Buffalo	5-3	14-6
Bowling Green	5-3	13-6
Metro Atlantic	Confer.	Overall
Iona	9-2	16-6
Rider	8-3	14-8
Manhattan	8-4	11-10
Monmouth	8-4	12-11
Canisius	7-5	12-9
Mideastern Ath.	Confer.	Overall
UNC Central	8-0	16-6
Norfolk St.	8-1	15-9
UM-Eastern Shore	6-2	13-10
Howard	5-2	11-10
South Carolina St.	6-3	8-15
Northeast	Confer.	Overall
St. Francis (NY)	8-2	14-9
Robert Morris	7-3	11-11
Bryant	7-3	10-10
St. Francis (PA)	6-4	12-9
Mt. St. Mary’s	6-4	10-11
Wagner	6-4	8-13
Ohio Valley	Confer.	Overall
Murray St.	9-0	19-4
Belmont	7-2	15-7
Eastern Illinois	7-3	13-9
UT-Martin	5-3	13-8
Patriot	Confer.	Overall
Bucknell	7-3	12-11
Colgate	7-3	10-13
Army	5-5	14-7
Lafayette	5-5	13-8
Southern	Confer.	Overall
Wofford	9-1	18-5
Chattanooga	8-2	15-8
Mercer	7-3	12-11
East Tennessee	6-5	13-8
Western Carolina	6-5	11-12
Southland	Confer.	Overall
Stephen F Austin	8-0	18-3
Sam Houston	8-1	16-5
Texas A&M-CC	6-2	11-9
Northwestern St.	6-3	11-9
Southwestern Ath.	Confer.	Overall
Texas Southern	7-1	10-11
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	4-4	7-15
Summit	Confer.	Overall
South Dakota St.	8-2	17-7
North Dakota St.	7-2	15-7
Oral Roberts	5-3	12-10
Sun Belt	Confer.	Overall
Georgia Southern	8-2	15-4
Georgia St.	8-3	15-7
Louisiana-Monroe	8-3	14-8
Western Ath.	Confer.	Overall
New Mexico St.	5-1	13-10
Missouri-KC	4-2	9-14

The remaining 11 conferences will divvy up the 47 remaining bids.  For these conferences, we will list the teams by the average seeding given to them of our two dozen plus experts.  If an expert left a team off his list, we assign a seeding of “20” to this team to lower their overall seeding.  Thus it is better to be the last team in the Big Dance on every bracketologist’s list and seeded at 13 than to be a 12-seed on 80% and not included on 20%.

If you see a team marked with a number followed by the word “out,” that team is one of the top 10 teams just outside of the field.  If you see a team marked with a number followed by an asterisk (*), that team is one of the last 10 to make the field and very vulnerable for dropping out if they lose a couple games they should not.  If a team is marked as “bubble,” then they received at least one placement in one of the experts’ seedings but did not make the first 10 teams out of the tournament.

American Ath.	Confer.	Overall	Seed
SMU	9-1	18-4	7
Cincinnati	6-3	15-6	8
Tulsa	9-0	16-5	11 *
Temple	6-3	15-7	2nd out
Connecticut	4-4	11-9	bubble
Atlantic Coast	Confer.	Overall	Seed
Virginia	7-1	19-1	1
Duke	5-3	18-3	2
Louisville	6-2	18-3	3
North Carolina	7-2	17-5	3
Notre Dame	8-2	20-3	3
Miami	4-4	14-7	11 *
NC State	5-5	14-9	11 *
Syracuse	5-3	14-7	8th out
Clemson	5-4	13-8	9th out
Atlantic 10	Confer.	Overall	Seed
VCU	7-1	17-4	4
Dayton	7-2	17-4	9
George Washington	6-3	16-6	12 *
Davidson	5-3	14-5	1st out
Rhode Island	7-2	15-5	10th out
U Mass	5-3	12-9	bubble
Big East	Confer.	Overall	Seed
Villanova	6-2	19-2	2
Butler	6-3	16-6	5
Georgetown	7-3	15-6	6
Providence	6-3	16-6	6
Seton Hall	5-4	15-6	8
Xavier	5-5	14-8	9
St. John’s	3-5	14-7	11 *
Big Ten	Confer.	Overall	Seed
Wisconsin	7-1	19-2	2
Maryland	6-3	18-4	4
Ohio State	6-3	17-5	7
Indiana	6-3	16-6	7
Michigan State	6-3	15-7	9
Iowa	4-4	13-8	11 *
Michigan	6-4	13-9	bubble
Purdue	6-3	14-8	bubble
Illinois	4-5	14-8	bubble
Big 12	Confer.	Overall	Seed
Kansas	7-1	18-3	2
Iowa State	6-2	16-4	3
West Virginia	6-2	18-3	4
Baylor	4-4	16-5	5
Oklahoma	5-4	14-7	5
Texas	3-5	14-7	7
Oklahoma State	4-5	14-7	10
Kansas State	5-4	12-10	bubble
Missouri Valley	Confer.	Overall	Seed
Wichita State	9-1	19-3	5
Northern Iowa	9-1	20-2	6
Mountain West	Confer.	Overall	Seed
San Diego State	7-2	17-5	8
Colorado State	6-3	19-3	10 *
Wyoming	7-2	18-4	5th out
Boise State	5-3	15-6	bubble
Pac-12	Confer.	Overall	Seed
Arizona	8-1	20-2	1
Utah	7-2	17-4	4
Stanford	6-3	15-6	8
Washington	3-6	14-7	3rd out
UCLA	5-4	13-9	bubble
Southeastern	Confer.	Overall	Seed
Kentucky	8-0	21-0	1
Arkansas	5-3	16-5	6
Georgia	5-3	14-6	9
LSU	5-3	16-5	10 *
Texas A&M	6-2	15-5	10 *
Mississippi	5-3	14-7	12 *
Florida	5-3	12-9	4th out
Tennessee	5-3	13-7	6th out
Alabama	3-5	13-8	bubble
South Carolina	2-6	11-9	bubble
West Coast	Confer.	Overall	Seed
Gonzaga	10-0	22-1	1
BYU	7-4	17-7	7th out
St. Mary’s (CA)	9-2	17-5	bubble

The experts have the following eight teams playing an opening round game in Dayton:

North Carolina St. vs. George Washington

Tulsa vs. Ole Miss

New Mexico St. vs. Texas Southern

Bucknell vs. St. Francis (NY)

The top seeds would be seeded thusly:

East: Virginia

South: Kentucky

Midwest: Gonzaga

West: Arizona

The number two seeds would go here:

East: Wisconsin

South: Villanova

Midwest: Duke

West: Kansas

The 3-Seeds:

East: North Carolina

South: Louisville

Midwest: Iowa St.

West: Notre Dame

The 4-seeds:

East: Maryland

South: West Virginia

Midwest: VCU

West: Utah

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Final Four

The semifinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and we now know who will play for the Simper Bowl title. If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

In the quarterfinal round, #1 Alabama knocked off #8 Mississippi St. 30-17; #7 Ole Miss upset #2 Oregon 24-22; #3 TCU dismissed #6 Florida St. 42-24; and #5 Baylor won at #4 Ohio St. 40-38/
The format for the Final Four is identical to the actual FBS Playoffs. In today’s simulation, we have #7 Ole Miss facing #3 TCU in the Rose Bowl, followed by #1 Alabama and #5 Baylor facing off in the Sugar Bowl.

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.
Rose Bowl
#3 TCU 27 #7 Ole Miss 10

Stats
First Downs: TC 19 OM 13
Rushing: TC 37-149 OM 32-89
Passing: TC 197 OM 239
Passes: TC 19-33-0 OM 21-39-4
Play-Yds: TC 70-346 OM 71-328
After 1st Qtr: TC 0 OM 0
Half: TC 7 OM 7
After 3rd Qtr: TC 20 OM 7

Sugar Bowl
#5 Baylor 26 #1 Alabama 24

Stats
First Downs BA 20 AL 19
Rushing: BA 26-79 AL 35-243
Passing: BA 419 AL 238
Passes: BA 35-53-1 AL 19-34-3
Play-Yds: BA 79-498 AL 69-481
After 1st Qtr: AL 10 BA 3
Half: AL 17 BA 16
After 3rd Qtr: BA 19 AL 17

And lo and behold, look who will be facing off in Simper Bowl VIII? It’s the two Big 12 teams that were not invited to the real inaugural playoffs. The simulator says that TCU and Baylor are the two best teams. As Former Texas Governor Rick Perry might say, “Oops!”

Return to this site on Tuesday, December 23 for the results of the simulation for the National Championship between Baylor and TCU.

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 17–January 1, 2012

It Will Be A Happy New Year For Fans Of…

The playoff races are quite easy to figure out as we enter week 17.  In the NFC, the winner of the Giants-Dallas game wins the East Division and earns the number four seed.  The Giants would earn the spot in the event of a tie.

 

Atlanta and Detroit will be the wildcards, and if they finished tied at 10-6, the Falcons will be the number five seed, and the Lions will be the number six seed.

 

San Francisco holds the tiebreaker over New Orleans for the number two seed, so the only way for the Saints to earn a first round bye is to beat Carolina and hope the 49ers lose to the lowly Rams, a team that will be fighting for the overall number one NFL Draft pick.

 

In the AFC, Denver and Oakland are tied for first in the West Division, but the Broncos hold the tiebreaker over the Raiders in the event they finish tied at 9-7, 8-7-1, or 8-8.

 

Houston is guaranteed the number three seed no matter what they do this week in their game against Tennessee.

 

New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all have a shot at the top seed in the AFC.  If the Patriots win, they earn the spot.  If the Pats lose, Baltimore will take it away with a win over Cincinnati.  Pittsburgh can take it if both New England and Baltimore lose, and they beat Cleveland.

 

As for the Steelers and Ravens, Baltimore holds the tiebreaker edge.  The team not winning the North Division will be the number five seed.

 

The big story involves the final wildcard spot.  Cincinnati has the best percentage chance of taking the final seed.  If the Bengals beat Baltimore, Cinti is in the playoffs.  Should the Bengals lose, they could still earn the number six seed if the Jets lose or tie to Miami and only one or no AFC West teams finish 9-7.  If both Oakland and Denver win, then the Bengals will miss out on the playoffs if they lose to Baltimore.

 

Oakland has the next best chance at earning the wildcard.  The Raiders must beat San Diego.  Of course, if Denver loses, the Raiders would win the West Division.  If both Oakland and Denver win to finish 9-7, the Raiders will earn a wildcard spot if the Jets beat Miami and Tennessee does not finish 9-7.

 

Denver cannot earn a wildcard spot, because if they win this week, they are the West Division champions.  If the Broncos lose, they can still be the West champs if Oakland loses.

 

The Jets have a somewhat remote shot at making the playoffs if they beat Miami and the Bengals lose.  Tennessee would have to lose to Houston, and either Oakland or Denver would have to lose or tie. 

 

Tennessee has the least likely chance of earning a wildcard spot.  If the Bengals lose, and the Titans beat Houston, there are two ways they can earn the final spot.  The first way would be for the Jets to lose to Miami while both Oakland and Denver win their games.  The second way would be for the Jets to Win while either Oakland or Denver fail to win their games.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen:

 

NFC

The Giants beat Dallas to earn the number four seed.

Atlanta beats Tampa Bay to earn the number five seed.

Detroit becomes the number six seed.

Both San Francisco and New Orleans win, giving the 49ers the number two seed and the bye.

 

AFC

New England beats Buffalo to sew up the number one seed.

Baltimore edges Cincinnati in a near-empty Paul Brown Stadium to earn the number two seed.

Houston already owns the number three seed and rests its starters, but their defense shuts down Tennessee, knocking the Titans out of the playoffs.

Denver comes through in the final minutes to beat Kansas City and win the West, while Oakland handles San Diego to finish 9-7.

Miami beats the Jets to knock them out of the playoffs, thus giving the Raiders the number six seed.

 

Wildcard Round

#6 Detroit at #3 New Orleans

#5 Atlanta at #4 New York Giants

#6 Oakland at #3 Houston

#5 Pittsburgh at #4 Denver

 

Divisional Round

#3 New Orleans at #2 San Francisco

#5 Atlanta at #1 Green Bay

#6 Oakland at #1 New England

#5 Pittsburgh at #2 Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Baltimore at New England

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Champions

Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia Eagles	104.3	103.9	103.5	2	7	–	8	–	0	362	318
New York Giants	102.2	101.8	102.0	1	8	–	7	–	0	363	386
Dallas Cowboys	100.8	101.0	101.0	3	8	–	7	–	0	355	316
Washington Redskins	94.0	94.3	92.9	2.5	5	–	10	–	0	278	333
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	111.9	111.5	109.7	3.5	14	–	1	–	0	515	318
Detroit Lions	104.1	104.3	103.3	3	10	–	5	–	0	433	342
Minnesota Vikings	95.0	94.8	93.8	3	3	–	12	–	0	327	432
Chicago Bears	94.1	95.5	98.5	3.5	7	–	8	–	0	336	328
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	112.5	111.9	106.2	5	12	–	3	–	0	502	322
Atlanta Falcons	104.2	104.0	105.7	3.5	9	–	6	–	0	357	326
Carolina Panthers	100.2	99.9	99.6	2	6	–	9	–	0	389	384
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	89.1	89.3	91.3	3	4	–	11	–	0	263	449
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	106.4	106.5	105.6	3.5	12	–	3	–	0	346	202
Seattle Seahawks	100.8	100.7	102.1	2	7	–	8	–	0	301	292
Arizona Cardinals	97.5	97.5	99.0	3	7	–	8	–	0	289	328
St. Louis Rams	90.3	90.0	87.7	2.5	2	–	13	–	0	166	373
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	109.5	109.3	107.9	1.5	12	–	3	–	0	464	321
Miami Dolphins	103.2	102.7	102.7	3	5	–	10	–	0	310	296
New York Jets	101.6	101.4	99.9	3.5	8	–	7	–	0	360	344
Buffalo Bills	94.8	95.0	100.3	4.5	6	–	9	–	0	351	385
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh Steelers	107.3	107.1	105.2	4.5	11	–	4	–	0	312	218
Baltimore Ravens	104.9	104.9	106.2	4	11	–	4	–	0	354	250
Cincinnati Bengals	98.9	99.0	103.7	2	9	–	6	–	0	328	299
Cleveland Browns	94.9	95.0	94.6	1.5	4	–	11	–	0	209	294
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	99.6	100.8	102.5	1.5	10	–	5	–	0	359	255
Tennessee Titans	99.3	99.0	99.1	1.5	8	–	7	–	0	302	295
Jacksonville Jaguars	96.9	96.5	90.9	3	4	–	11	–	0	224	316
Indianapolis Colts	92.5	92.3	91.6	3.5	2	–	13	–	0	230	411
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	102.1	101.9	101.1	3.5	7	–	8	–	0	368	351
Oakland Raiders	97.5	97.4	98.4	1.5	8	–	7	–	0	333	395
Kansas City Chiefs	96.3	95.9	95.5	2	6	–	9	–	0	205	335
Denver Broncos	94.6	94.8	98.8	1.5	8	–	7	–	0	306	383

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, December 27, 2011 @ 3:00 PM EST

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Washington	12.3	11.6	12.6	9	46 1/2
ATLANTA	Tampa Bay	18.6	18.2	17.9	13	47
San Francisco	ST. LOUIS	13.6	14.0	15.4	10 1/2	35 1/2
MINNESOTA	Chicago	3.9	2.3	-1.7	-1	40
GREEN BAY	Detroit	11.3	10.7	9.9	-3 1/2	46 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Dallas	2.4	1.8	2.0	3	46 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	17.3	17.0	11.6	9 1/2	55
HOUSTON	Tennessee	1.8	3.3	4.9	-3	40 1/2
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.0	3.9	0.5	2 1/2	38
Pittsburgh	CLEVELAND	10.9	10.6	9.1	7	36
JACKSONVILLE	Indianapolis	7.4	7.2	2.3	4	37
MIAMI	New York Jets	4.6	4.3	5.8	1 1/2	41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Buffalo	16.2	15.8	9.1	11 1/2	51
San Diego	OAKLAND	3.1	3.0	1.2	-3	49
Kansas City	DENVER	0.2	-0.4	-4.8	-3	37
Seattle	ARIZONA	0.3	0.2	0.1	-3	41

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 16–December 22-26, 2011

Still Some Excitement In Playoff Races

Three of the four wildcard spots are all but assured, but there is still plenty of excitement left in the NFL playoff races.

 

In the NFC East, the Eagles now have a legitimate shot at sneaking in the playoffs as division champions with an 8-8 record.  If Philly beats Dallas and Washington in the final two games, while the Giants lose to the Jets and beat Dallas, then there will be a three-way tie for first at 8-8.  Philadelphia would win the tiebreaker.

 

If Dallas beats Philadelphia this week, and the Giants lose to the Jets, the Cowboys clinch the division title.  If the Giants win out, they will top the Cowboys in the tiebreaker.

 

If for some weird reason the Saints lose to the Falcons this week and the Panthers next week, while Atlanta beats Tampa Bay next week, Atlanta would be the division champion, while the Saints would be a wildcard team.  Don’t count on it happening.

 

In the NFC wildcard chase, the Lions and Falcons grab the spots with one win each.  In the event they both lose out to finish 9-7, then Dallas trumps everybody if the Cowboys finish 9-7 and does not win the NFC East (by virtue of the Giants finishing 9-7).

 

Atlanta would earn a wildcard spot at 9-7 if Dallas does not do so or wins the East over the Giants.

 

Arizona and Seattle can still get in, but only one team can do so—the winner of their game next week.  For the winner of that game to make it, both Atlanta and Detroit must lose out, or Dallas must either win their division or lose out.

 

New England has clinched the AFC East and has the easiest path to homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.  Houston has clinched the AFC South.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh have clinched playoff spots, and the Ravens would clinch the AFC North in any tie.

 

The AFC West is still up for grabs, and all four teams are still alive.  Kansas City would win the tiebreaker if all four teams finished 8-8.  That is the Chiefs’ only chance.  Denver clinches the division with two wins or one win and an Oakland loss.  Oakland clinches the division if Denver loses to Kansas City, and the Raiders win twice.  San Diego clinches the division if the Broncos lose twice and the Chargers win twice.

 

As for the final AFC wildcard spot, if the Jets win out, it is theirs.  In multiple 9-7 ties, Tennessee would win a tiebreaker with the Jets and Bengals.  However, if the Raiders finish at 9-7 as well, Oakland would win this four-way tiebreaker.  Oakland would win a three-way tiebreaker with the Jets and Bengals.  Should Oakland win the West and Denver finish 9-7, the Broncos would edge out a 9-7 Jets and 9-7 Bengals team in a three-way tie.

 

San Diego has the tiebreaker edge in a three-way tie with the Bengals and Jets at 9-7, and the Chargers would also earn the wildcard if Tennessee went 9-7 in this scenario.

 

Here is how the PiRate Ratings project the playoff race this week.

 

AFC                                                                NFC

1. New England 13-3                                     1. Green Bay 15-1

2. Houston 12-4                                              2. New Orleans 13-3

3. Pittsburgh 12-4                                          3. San Francisco 12-4

4. Denver 10-6                                               4. New York Giants 9-7

5. Baltimore 11-5                                           5. Atlanta 10-6

6. Cincinnati 10-6                                          6. Detroit 10-6

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Denver

Detroit at San Francisco

Atlanta at New York Giants

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Baltimore at New England

Pittsburgh at Houston

Atlanta at Green Bay

San Francisco at New Orleans

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans at Green Bay

Pittsburgh at New England

 

Super Bowl XVI

Green Bay vs. New England

 

Super Bowl Champions: Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Philadelphia Eagles	102.9	101.8	104.2	3.5	6	–	8	–	0	342	311
Dallas Cowboys	102.2	101.2	101.5	1.5	8	–	6	–	0	348	296
New York Giants	100.8	100.6	99.9	2.5	7	–	7	–	0	334	372
Washington Redskins	95.2	95.3	94.8	2.5	5	–	9	–	0	252	300
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	112.2	112.2	109.7	4	13	–	1	–	0	480	297
Detroit Lions	101.8	102.2	103.7	3	9	–	5	–	0	395	332
Chicago Bears	93.8	95.6	97.6	3.5	7	–	7	–	0	315	293
Minnesota Vikings	93.8	92.8	91.0	3	2	–	12	–	0	294	406
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	110.4	109.9	106.5	3	11	–	3	–	0	457	306
Atlanta Falcons	106.3	106.0	108.3	1.5	9	–	5	–	0	341	281
Carolina Panthers	98.0	97.6	98.0	4.5	5	–	9	–	0	341	368
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	91.3	92.4	93.5	2.5	4	–	10	–	0	247	401
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	106.6	106.5	106.6	3	11	–	3	–	0	327	185
Seattle Seahawks	100.6	100.4	101.7	2.5	7	–	7	–	0	284	273
Arizona Cardinals	98.0	98.9	102.0	3.5	7	–	7	–	0	273	305
St. Louis Rams	90.7	89.1	87.8	2	2	–	12	–	0	166	346
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	109.8	109.2	108.1	4	11	–	3	–	0	437	297
New York Jets	103.0	103.4	99.9	3	8	–	6	–	0	346	315
Miami Dolphins	102.9	100.6	101.6	1.5	5	–	9	–	0	286	269
Buffalo Bills	92.0	92.9	96.0	4	5	–	9	–	0	311	371
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh Steelers	106.9	107.3	104.8	4	10	–	4	–	0	285	218
Baltimore Ravens	105.3	105.9	106.1	1.5	10	–	4	–	0	334	236
Cincinnati Bengals	98.4	98.8	100.8	2	8	–	6	–	0	305	283
Cleveland Browns	94.5	94.5	93.4	4.5	4	–	10	–	0	195	274
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	100.4	103.5	103.4	1	10	–	4	–	0	343	236
Tennessee Titans	99.0	99.5	98.2	3	7	–	7	–	0	279	278
Jacksonville Jaguars	97.2	95.6	92.8	3	4	–	10	–	0	207	293
Indianapolis Colts	91.7	90.2	90.6	1.5	1	–	13	–	0	211	395
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	104.4	102.9	103.3	1.5	7	–	7	–	0	358	313
Denver Broncos	97.4	99.4	101.0	1.5	8	–	6	–	0	292	343
Oakland Raiders	97.3	97.8	96.9	1.5	7	–	7	–	0	317	382
Kansas City Chiefs	96.5	96.3	96.4	3	6	–	8	–	0	192	319

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, December 20, 2011 @ 6:00 PM EST

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Houston	INDIANAPOLIS	5.7	10.3	9.8	6	40
KANSAS CITY	Oakland	0.7	0.0	1.0	1	42
Denver	BUFFALO	1.4	2.5	1.0	3	42
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	3.3	5.4	6.9	7 1/2	40
CINCINNATI	Arizona	1.9	1.4	0.3	4	40 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Miami	8.4	10.1	8.0	9 1/2	49
BALTIMORE	Cleveland	14.8	15.4	16.7	13	38 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	NEW YORK GIANTS	2.2	2.8	0.0	3	46
WASHINGTON	Minnesota	3.9	5.0	6.3	6 1/2	44
CAROLINA	Tampa Bay	8.2	6.7	6.0	7 1/2	48
PITTSBURGH	St. Louis	20.7	22.7	21.5	16	37 1/2
DETROIT	San Diego	0.8	2.3	3.4	2 1/2	52
San Francisco	SEATTLE	4.0	4.1	2.9	2 1/2	38
DALLAS	Philadelphia	2.8	2.9	0.8	1 1/2	50 1/2
GREEN BAY	Chicago	21.9	20.1	15.6	12	45
NEW ORLEANS	Atlanta	8.6	8.4	2.7	6 1/2	53

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 15–December 15-19, 2011

How Things Stand With Three Weeks To Go

We have been projecting our playoff teams for several weeks, and there has been little movement.  So, beginning this week, we will show you where any possible moves may come from.  First, let’s reveal the legitimate play-off tiebreaking procedures.  There are more than what we show, but the chances that any of them will ever be used is infinitesimal.

 

To Break A Tie Within A Division:

1. Head-to-head record—if one team sweeps the other or goes 1-0-1, stop here.

2. Division W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record

4. Conference W-L record

5. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

6. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

To Break A Tie For The Wildcard Between Two Teams (Different Divisions)

1. Head to head

2. Conference W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record (Must be at least 4 common games)

4. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

5. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

To Break A Tie Of Multiple Teams For the Wildcard:

First, if any of these tied teams are in the same division, apply the division tiebreaker to come up with just one team per division.

 

1. Head-to-head sweep by one team over all the other teams in the tiebreaker

2. Conference W-L record

3. Common Games W-L record (Must be at least 4 common games for all teams)

4. Strength of victory (Combined W-L % of all teams defeated)

5. Strength of schedule (Combined W-L% of all teams played)

 

Here is a brief tutorial of all eight divisions after 14 weeks.

 

NFC East

The New York Giants currently hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, because of head-to-head.  Of course, they have to play Dallas in week 17.  Both are 2-2 in the division.  Dallas has a 5-4 conference record while the Giants are just 4-6.  Dallas has two other conference games prior to the finale with the Giants—at Tampa Bay and at home against Philadelphia.  New York hosts Washington this week and must win to have any chance to win the division if they lose to Dallas in week 17 and finish tied in the standings.

 

In the event that New York beats Washington and loses to Dallas, while the Cowboys lose to Philadelphia and beat Tampa Bay, the top two tiebreakers would push.  In common games, the Giants would win the tiebreaker.

 

The key game may very well be the Giants-Jets game.  If the Jets win, Dallas could win the East outright with a win in week 17.  The Cowboys are very much alive in the wildcard race, and at 10-6, their chances of getting in would be high.  There are still too many possibilities to go into all the different tiebreakers.

 

NFC South

New Orleans is up two with three to go, and the Saints will not lose three in a row.  Atlanta is leading in the wildcard race, holding the tiebreaker over Detroit.  The Falcons host Jacksonville and should pick up a ninth win this weekend.  In week 16, they face the Saints in New Orleans, and the Saints are tough at home and will be looking for the #2 seed.  A week 17 home game with Tampa Bay gives the Falcons an excellent chance to clinch the #5 seed.

 

NFC North

Green Bay has already clinched the division and has almost clinched homefield advantage to the Super Bowl. 

 

Detroit holds onto the second wildcard spot at the moment, while Chicago is one game back.  This is an interesting possible tiebreaker.  Both the Lions and Bears face the Packers in Green Bay.  For argument’s sake, let’s say the Packers win both.  Chicago finishes at Minnesota in week 17, and the Bears would have to win and hope the Lions lose to Oakland this week and San Diego next week, because Detroit would win the tiebreaker if they finished tied.  Basically, Chicago has to win out and have Green Bay beat Detroit to move ahead of the Lions.  That means winning at Lambeau Field.

 

NFC West

San Francisco has already clinched the division.  Seattle and Arizona have very slim chances at wildcard bids.  Either will have to win out to finish at 9-7 and then hope that three from among the NFC East runnerup, Atlanta, Detroit, and Chicago fell to 9-7 or worse.

 

AFC East

New England has a commanding lead and would have to lose out not to win the division.  Forget that happening; the Pats are in.

 

The Jets were almost given up for dead a few weeks ago, after they fell to 5-5 with a loss to King Tebow and the Broncos.  Coach Rex Ryan’s troops have won three in a row to take over the second playoff spot.  The Jets have two pivotal games against the NFC East—The Eagles and Giants—before finishing at Miami in week 17.  If they drop one of these games and finish at 10-6, then they could lose out to Tennessee if the Titans close with three wins.  Tennessee has an easy closing three games and could run the table.

 

AFC South

Houston won its first division title with their win over Cincinnati.  They can still earn homefield advantage to the Super Bowl, and if it could play a direct role in determining the wildcard.  The Texans should dismiss Carolina and Indianapolis the next two week to move to 12-3.  They would then earn the top seed with a week 17 victory over the Titans.

 

Here is where things get interesting.  Tennessee has Indianapolis and Jacksonville the next two weeks and should be 9-6 when they close the season at Houston.  If the Jets have lost a game, then the Titans would earn the final wildcard spot with a win.  If Houston is playing for homefield advantage, the Texans would use all their regulars and should win.  If homefield advantage is not an issue, because the Texans have already clinched, or been eliminated, look for Tennessee to win against Houston’s reserves. 

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are tied for first and both headed to the playoffs.  The Steelers have a crucial game at San Francisco this week.  They host the Rams next week before finishing at Cleveland in week 17; that is a trap game if there ever was one.

 

Baltimore has its own trap game.  The Ravens go to San Diego this week, and the Chargers are playing like they were supposed to all along.  Baltimore has been stung on three road games this year, and this one has them travelling three time zones to the West Coast.  The Ravens close with Cleveland at home and Cincinnati on the road.  We expect the Bengals to be out of the race by that time, so Baltimore should be okay for that road game.

 

If the Ravens and Steelers finished tied, Baltimore wins the tiebreaker by virtue of better division record.  Either way, the runnerup will be the #5 seed.

 

AFC West

Can anybody stop the Tebow Express?  Yes, and it will happen this week, when New England wins by more than a touchdown.  However, the Broncos close with Buffalo and Kansas City, two teams the Broncos can beat.  So, let’s figure Denver to finish 10-6.

 

San Diego is 6-7 and thus would be eliminated from the race if that happens.  Oakland is 7-6, so what happens if the Raiders were to win out and finish 7-6?  Denver would still win the tiebreaker based on a better conference record.

 

So, what if Denver goes 9-7, losing at Buffalo in week 16, while Oakland and/or San Diego finish 9-7 as well?  Denver wins all tiebreakers again.  The only way for either Oakland or San Diego to win the division is to pass Denver in the standings.  It looks like Tebow will play in January.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New York Giants	102.3	101.4	102.8	1.5	7	–	6	–	0	324	349
Dallas Cowboys	101.5	101.5	101.4	3.5	7	–	6	–	0	317	281
Philadelphia Eagles	101.1	99.8	99.8	2	5	–	8	–	0	297	292
Washington Redskins	93.7	95.0	94.4	3	4	–	9	–	0	229	290
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	114.0	113.2	109.8	3	13	–	0	–	0	466	278
Detroit Lions	101.7	103.5	103.1	2.5	8	–	5	–	0	367	305
Chicago Bears	95.7	96.6	100.2	4	7	–	6	–	0	301	255
Minnesota Vikings	94.6	94.3	92.6	4	2	–	11	–	0	274	364
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	109.6	108.9	105.8	5	10	–	3	–	0	415	286
Atlanta Falcons	105.0	104.2	106.0	3	8	–	5	–	0	300	267
Carolina Panthers	96.4	96.9	98.2	2	4	–	9	–	0	313	355
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	92.0	92.9	94.5	2.5	4	–	9	–	0	232	370
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	105.3	106.0	104.7	3.5	10	–	3	–	0	307	182
Seattle Seahawks	98.7	99.4	99.9	3	6	–	7	–	0	246	259
Arizona Cardinals	98.2	97.8	100.9	2.5	6	–	7	–	0	253	288
St. Louis Rams	90.9	90.1	88.0	2	2	–	11	–	0	153	326
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	109.2	108.4	107.8	1.5	10	–	3	–	0	396	274
New York Jets	104.8	104.5	102.7	3.5	8	–	5	–	0	327	270
Miami Dolphins	102.2	101.0	100.2	3	4	–	9	–	0	256	246
Buffalo Bills	92.7	95.5	98.8	4.5	5	–	8	–	0	288	341
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh Steelers	108.2	107.6	105.4	4.5	10	–	3	–	0	282	198
Baltimore Ravens	106.9	107.1	107.2	4	10	–	3	–	0	320	202
Cincinnati Bengals	98.2	99.2	101.7	2	7	–	6	–	0	285	270
Cleveland Browns	94.3	95.1	94.1	2	4	–	9	–	0	178	254
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	102.0	103.3	103.9	1.5	10	–	3	–	0	330	208
Tennessee Titans	100.7	100.9	100.6	1.5	7	–	6	–	0	266	251
Jacksonville Jaguars	98.5	97.1	94.6	3	4	–	9	–	0	193	252
Indianapolis Colts	90.0	88.1	86.3	2	0	–	13	–	0	184	382
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	102.8	101.3	100.7	2.5	6	–	7	–	0	324	299
Denver Broncos	98.0	98.8	102.4	1.5	8	–	5	–	0	269	302
Oakland Raiders	97.4	97.5	99.2	1.5	7	–	6	–	0	290	354
Kansas City Chiefs	94.7	92.7	92.3	1.5	5	–	8	–	0	173	305

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Week: 15—December 15-19, 2011

Vegas Line as of December 13, 4:30 PM EST

 

Home Team in CAPS

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
ATLANTA	Jacksonville	9.5	10.1	14.4	11	42 1/2
Dallas	TAMPA BAY	7.0	6.1	4.4	7	46 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	10.1	7.9	9.9	7	45 1/2
Green Bay	KANSAS CITY	13.8	19.0	16.0	14	45 1/2
New Orleans	MINNESOTA	11.0	10.6	9.2	7	50 1/2
CHICAGO	Seattle	1.0	1.2	4.3	3 1/2	35 1/2
BUFFALO	Miami	5.0	1.0	-3.1	1	42 1/2
HOUSTON	Carolina	7.1	7.9	7.2	6 1/2	46
Tennessee	INDIANAPOLIS	8.7	10.8	12.3	6 1/2	41
Cincinnati	ST. LOUIS	5.3	7.1	11.7	6	38 1/2
Detroit	OAKLAND	2.8	4.5	2.4	1	47 1/2
New England	DENVER	9.7	8.1	3.9	6	45 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	New York Jets	1.7	2.7	0.9	2 1/2	44
ARIZONA	Cleveland	6.4	5.2	9.3	6 1/2	37 1/2
Baltimore	SAN DIEGO	1.6	3.3	4.0	2 1/2	44
SAN FRANCISCO	Pittsburgh	0.6	1.9	2.8	2	40 1/2

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 14–December 8-12, 2011

It Can’t Work, So Now Look For More Teams To Try It

How many weeks in a row have you heard some NFL pundit proclaim that Denver’s option offense cannot work, even with the great Tim Tebow running the team and with two excellent running backs in Willis McGahee and Lance Ball?  Throw in a healthy Knowshon Moreno, assuming he will come back full strength from his knee injury in 2012, and this offense could put up more rushing yards than the old Miami Dolphins Super Bowl Champion teams in 1972 and 1973.

 

With Tebow as starting quarterback, Denver has averaged 200 rushing yards per game on 40 attempts for a 5.0 average per rush.  The 1972 Dolphins averaged 211 rushing yards per game (with Larry Csonka and Mercury Morris both topping 1,000 yards rushing) on 44 attempts (4.8 avg. per rush).  The 1958 Cleveland Browns, with the greatest running back ever in Jim Brown, averaged 211 rushing yards per game on 40 attempts (5.3 avg per rush).

 

Let’s address some of the issues these so-called experts drag up every week.

 

1. You cannot win if you don’t have a top passing quarterback.

First of all, Tebow’s QB passer rating is 87.9.  That would place him 10^th in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify.  He is ahead of Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Cam Newton, Phillip Rivers, and Jay Cutler this season. 

 

Second, Tebow’s stats are not the liability experts believe them to be.  With him at QB, Coach John Fox has relied on longer passing plays, ala the old days of the American Football League.  Tebow’s numbers look like an old AFL quarterback’s stats.  He is completing 47.5% of his passes, which is about what Joe Namath completed.  He is averaging 14.1 yards per completion, which is what Namath and Daryle Lamonica averaged when the Jets and Raiders led the AFL in offense.  Best of all, Tebow has tossed 10 touchdown passes against just one interception, something that speaks more of Bart Starr at his peak with the Packers.

 

2. Tebow is going to get hit so many times, he will never withstand it and miss several games.

 

Tebow is 6-3 and 245 pounds, and he carries the ball about 10-12 times per game on average.  Arian Foster is 6-1 and 224 and carries the ball about twice that much.  Tebow stands just as much if not more chance of getting hurt standing back in the pocket than when he is on the move, and by being on the move, his momentum makes him more like Csonka and Brown, or like Joe Kapp or Tobin Rote, quarterbacks from the 1960’s that were known to throw their powerful bodies at smaller defensive backs.

 

Did the pundits of the day question Vince Lombardi when he moved quarterback Paul Hornung to running back and give him the ball 15 times a game? 

 

3. Defenses can stop this offense by putting 8 or 9 in the box.

 

All NFL teams put 8 or 9 in the box in short yardage situations and near the goalline, yet teams still convert for first downs and touchdowns.  Most teams have just one running threat, and defenses can key on that one back, and yet the backs frequently find success.

 

Denver has two and sometimes three backs that can threaten the defense on a play.  If the defense overreacts to the threat of the first runner, they could be burned if he is only being used as a fake.  Throw 8 or 9 defenders to the line and make the wrong move, and any back can burn a defense for a long gain. 

 

Also, when Tebow throws, he often goes deep or at least 5-10 yards longer than most teams go these days.  Just one long completion is enough to turn a game around.  Tebow may throw deep 5 or more times in a game, and if he completed just one, that usually will be enough to force defenses to put only 7 in the box.  Just the threat of the deep pass is enough in itself.  He may not be Aaron Rodgers, but he isn’t Jimmy Clausen either.

 

This new option offense being used by the Broncos may be so impossible to succeed in the NFL, that by next year, you could see two or three more teams trying it out.

 

The truth is that any offense that threatens to stretch the field horizontally and vertically has a chance to succeed if the blocking is good enough.  Yes, it is the offensive line that really determines how good an offense will be.  Tebow will succeed or not succeed based on how the five Horses up front perform.

 

Let us take a look at one other team from the past—the 1976 New England Patriots.  Coach Chuck Fairbanks had come to the NFL from Oklahoma, where he made the Sooners the most lethal running team of all time.  His 1971 team averaged over 470 yards rushing per game.  Prior to 1976, the Patriots had failed as a passing team with Jim Plunkett manning the controls.  Fairbanks turned to youthful Steve Grogan to pilot the Pat Attack.  He had Andy Johnson and Sam “Bam” Cunningham as his principle backs in a split backfield.  The Patriots surprised everyone by running to an 11-3-0 record and earning a wildcard berth.  They penned the only loss on the Raiders, blowing Oakland off the field 48-17.

 

In the playoffs, the Patriots faced the Raiders at Oakland in the opening round.  They led 21-10 at the start of the fourth quarter and were leading 21-17 late in the game when Oakland faced a crucial third and long.  Quarterback Ken Stabler dropped back to pass, and fired off target bringing up fourth and long—except, the referee tossed a flag.  He called a roughing the passer penalty on the Patriots and every camera on instant replay showed there was no roughing.  The penalty gave the Raiders a first down, and they scored the winning touchdown in the final moments. 

 

That Patriot team was good enough to win the Super Bowl.  They were definitely better than the Super Bowl Champion Raiders.  New England could not throw the ball at all.  Grogan’s passer rating was a paltry 60.6.  However, he could run the ball, and he averaged better than six yards per attempt.  Overall, the Pats rushed for 211 yards on 42 attempts (5.0 avg per carry).  They averaged only 125 passing yards per game, more than 25 yards less per game than the Broncos when Tebow starts.

 

PiRate Ratings For The Week

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Dallas Cowboys	102.2	103.1	104.5	3.5	7	–	5	–	0	283	244
New York Giants	101.6	100.5	102.7	2	6	–	6	–	0	287	315
Philadelphia Eagles	98.6	98.5	98.1	2.5	4	–	8	–	0	271	282
Washington Redskins	92.9	94.0	93.6	3	4	–	8	–	0	202	256
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	113.3	112.3	109.3	3	12	–	0	–	0	420	262
Detroit Lions	102.0	104.9	102.3	2.5	7	–	5	–	0	333	277
Chicago Bears	95.5	95.1	99.0	4	7	–	5	–	0	291	242
Minnesota Vikings	94.3	94.5	91.6	4	2	–	10	–	0	246	330
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	109.8	108.7	106.4	5	9	–	3	–	0	393	269
Atlanta Falcons	104.9	104.0	105.6	2.5	7	–	5	–	0	269	244
Carolina Panthers	96.5	96.6	98.9	2	4	–	8	–	0	290	324
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	94.0	94.6	97.5	2	4	–	8	–	0	218	329
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	106.0	106.6	104.9	3	10	–	2	–	0	288	161
Seattle Seahawks	98.2	98.9	96.9	3	5	–	7	–	0	216	246
Arizona Cardinals	97.5	96.4	100.3	2.5	5	–	7	–	0	232	269
St. Louis Rams	91.4	90.4	87.8	2.5	2	–	10	–	0	140	296
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	110.0	109.6	108.1	1.5	9	–	3	–	0	362	247
Miami Dolphins	104.7	104.1	104.4	4	4	–	8	–	0	246	220
New York Jets	103.6	103.7	100.5	3	7	–	5	–	0	290	260
Buffalo Bills	93.7	97.0	100.7	4	5	–	7	–	0	278	304
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh Steelers	108.6	108.1	105.0	5	9	–	3	–	0	268	195
Baltimore Ravens	107.2	107.7	107.0	4	9	–	3	–	0	296	192
Cincinnati Bengals	98.2	98.9	102.5	1.5	7	–	5	–	0	266	250
Cleveland Browns	93.9	94.8	94.8	2.5	4	–	8	–	0	175	240
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	102.0	101.3	101.6	1.5	9	–	3	–	0	310	189
Tennessee Titans	100.5	100.8	102.5	2	7	–	5	–	0	249	229
Jacksonville Jaguars	96.5	96.1	93.0	2.5	3	–	9	–	0	152	238
Indianapolis Colts	89.7	88.4	85.9	2.5	0	–	12	–	0	174	358
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	101.8	99.9	100.1	2.5	5	–	7	–	0	287	289
Denver Broncos	98.2	97.8	101.0	1.5	7	–	5	–	0	256	292
Oakland Raiders	98.1	99.2	99.9	1.5	7	–	5	–	0	274	308
Kansas City Chiefs	95.9	93.6	93.5	1	5	–	7	–	0	163	268

 

PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads For This Week

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, December 06, 2011 @ 5:00 PM EST

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Cleveland	19.7	18.3	15.2	14	39
BALTIMORE	Indianapolis	21.5	23.3	25.1	16 1/2	41
Houston	CINCINNATI	2.3	0.9	-2.4	-3	37 1/2
GREEN BAY	Oakland	18.2	16.1	12.4	11	52 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	Kansas City	10.7	13.1	10.0	9	36 1/2
DETROIT	Minnesota	10.2	12.9	13.2	7	48 1/2
New Orleans	TENNESSEE	7.3	5.9	1.9	4	48 1/2
MIAMI	Philadelphia	10.1	9.6	10.3	3	44
New England	WASHINGTON	18.6	17.1	16.0	8	48
Atlanta	CAROLINA	6.4	5.4	4.7	2 1/2	48
JACKSONVILLE	Tampa Bay	5.5	4.0	-2.0	-1	37 ½
San Francisco	ARIZONA	6.0	7.7	2.1	3 1/2	39 ½
DENVER	Chicago	4.2	4.2	3.5	3 1/2	35 ½
SAN DIEGO	Buffalo	10.6	5.4	1.9	6 1/2	47 ½
DALLAS	New York Giants	4.1	6.1	5.3	3 1/2	49
SEATTLE	St. Louis	9.8	11.5	12.1	6 1/2	39 ½

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

We have some changes in this week’s projection.  The Chicago Bears continue to slide with the loss of Jay Cutler and now Matt Forte.  We show the Bears missing out of the playoffs, and there will be a real dogfight for the final playoff berth in the NFC.  Once thought to be out of the race entirely, teams like Arizona and Seattle have something to play for, as 9-7 just might be good enough to finish with the final wildcard spot.  The Detroit Lions could also fall to 9-7, and this would throw both wildcard spots up for grabs.  For now, we will let the Lions keep one and give the other to the Falcons, even though they are limping along.  A 2-2 finish ought to be good enough for Atlanta.

 

In the AFC, we have made only a minor adjustment by moving Pittsburgh ahead of New England for the top spot.  We believe the Steelers have a great chance to win out and get homefield advantage.

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh 13-3

2. New England 13-3

3. Houston 11-5

4. Denver 10-6

5. Baltimore 11-5

6. Cincinnati 11-5

 

N F C

1. Green Bay 16-0

2. San Francisco 13-3

3. New Orleans 13-3

4. Dallas 9-7

5. Detroit 9-7

6. Atlanta 9-7

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Houston

Denver over Baltimore

New Orleans over Detroit

Dallas over Atlanta

 

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

New England over Denver

Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh over New England

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Pittsburgh

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 13–December 1-5, 2011

The Ratings And QB Injuries

Most computer ratings base their formulae strictly on the score of games played.  It matters not how team A beat team B 35-21, only that team A won 35-21.

 

The PiRate Ratings are not quite the same as most ratings.  Thus, when Houston suffers the loss of Matt Schaub and then Matt Leinart, forcing T.J. Yates into the starters role, it caused something to happen to the PiRate Ratings.

 

Our ratings are predictive in nature.  We do not rely on average scoring margin combined with strength of schedule to forecast games.  Yes, scoring margin and strength of schedule are part of our three formulae, but we have a different way of looking at the games.

 

First, we do not take a 35-21 Team A win over Team B as strictly a two touchdown win.  We look at how the game played out.  How effective was Team A’s offense against Team B’s defense?

 

Let’s say Team C also beat Team B 35-21 a week earlier, and both games were played at Team B’s home stadium.  What if:

 

Team A gained 400 total yards and could have scored two more touchdowns than they did.  They chose to run the clock out at the end of the game after driving 75 yards to Team B’s 3 yard line.  Earlier in the game, they drove 75 yards to Team B’s 3 and then they chose to go for it on 4^th and 2 and came up 3 inches short.

 

Team C gained only 200 yards and scored on an intercepted screen pass and a punt return.  Additionally, Team B gained 200 more yards against Team C than they did against Team A.

 

Are Team A and Team C equal when looking at their games against Team B?  According to most computer ratings, they are.  The PiRate Ratings would estimate on the games played that Team A is about 6 points better than Team C.

 

Because Houston played a good part of their last game with Yates at quarterback (and the same goes for Chicago with Caleb Hanie), we can modify the ratings to show how much weaker the Texans (and Bears) are compare to when they had Schaub and/or Leinart (as well as Cutler).  So, in this week’s ratings, you will see how the loss of quarterbacks has affected our predictions.

 

On the other hand, if Peyton Manning miraculously returned to action this week for Indianapolis to play at New England, we would not have any 2011 data to base his effectiveness.  We could only estimate how many points he would be worth for the Colts, but, we do have a mechanical system in place to account for this.  Indianapolis would be 16 points better off if a healthy Manning was under center; unfortunately, the Colts would still be expected to lose by double digits at Foxboro. 

 

Since all of our ratings have a mean of 100, with every point or fraction thereof we take away from Houston (and Chicago), we have to divvy it up among the other teams.  And, voila:  we have ratings that reflect each team’s current strength and/or weakness.

 

Remember, a rating of 100 is average for a team.  If a team is rated at 106.4, they are 6.4 points better than average, and if they are rated 93.6, they are 6.4 points weaker than average.

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Dallas Cowboys	102.8	104.3	104.8	3.5	7	–	4	–	0	270	225
Philadelphia Eagles	101.2	100.3	101.3	2	4	–	7	–	0	257	251
New York Giants	100.3	99.5	102.2	1.5	6	–	5	–	0	252	277
Washington Redskins	93.9	95.4	95.3	3.5	4	–	7	–	0	183	222
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	114.2	113.7	110.2	2.5	11	–	0	–	0	382	227
Detroit Lions	102.3	105.2	103.9	2.5	7	–	4	–	0	316	246
Chicago Bears	96.8	97.0	97.4	4	7	–	4	–	0	288	232
Minnesota Vikings	94.6	94.6	91.6	4.5	2	–	9	–	0	214	295
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	109.4	108.6	107.0	5	8	–	3	–	0	362	252
Atlanta Falcons	105.6	104.4	106.2	2.5	7	–	4	–	0	259	227
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	97.1	96.9	98.5	2	4	–	7	–	0	199	291
Carolina Panthers	93.6	93.8	97.3	2.5	3	–	8	–	0	252	305
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	104.9	107.0	104.8	3	9	–	2	–	0	262	161
Arizona Cardinals	96.8	95.2	97.4	2	4	–	7	–	0	213	256
Seattle Seahawks	95.6	96.6	93.4	2.5	4	–	7	–	0	185	232
St. Louis Rams	92.5	90.7	88.7	2.5	2	–	9	–	0	140	270
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	112.3	111.7	109.2	2	8	–	3	–	0	331	223
New York Jets	102.6	102.5	100.9	3	6	–	5	–	0	256	241
Miami Dolphins	102.1	100.9	99.9	3.5	3	–	8	–	0	212	206
Buffalo Bills	94.0	97.7	100.6	4	5	–	6	–	0	261	281
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	106.6	107.8	108.1	4.5	8	–	3	–	0	272	182
Pittsburgh Steelers	106.2	106.2	105.3	4	8	–	3	–	0	233	188
Cincinnati Bengals	100.2	101.1	103.1	1	7	–	4	–	0	259	215
Cleveland Browns	94.4	95.4	97.1	2.5	4	–	7	–	0	165	216
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	100.9	99.8	99.6	1.5	8	–	3	–	0	293	179
Tennessee Titans	100.2	100.6	101.2	2	6	–	5	–	0	226	212
Jacksonville Jaguars	99.2	98.1	94.5	3.5	3	–	8	–	0	138	200
Indianapolis Colts	88.4	85.8	84.4	3	0	–	11	–	0	150	327
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Oakland Raiders	100.1	100.4	102.9	1	7	–	4	–	0	260	274
San Diego Chargers	99.4	98.5	99.1	3	4	–	7	–	0	249	275
Denver Broncos	97.8	98.3	99.9	2	6	–	5	–	0	221	260
Kansas City Chiefs	94.9	91.7	94.1	1.5	4	–	7	–	0	153	265

 

PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads For This Week’s Games

Week 13: December 1-5, 2011
Vegas Line as of 11/29/2011  @ 5:00 PM EST

 

Home Team in CAPS

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Philadelphia	SEATTLE	3.1	1.2	5.4	3	44
Tennessee	BUFFALO	2.2	-1.1	-3.4	-1 1/2	43 1/2
CHICAGO	Kansas City	5.9	9.3	7.3	7 1/2	36 1/2
MIAMI	Oakland	5.5	4.0	0.5	3	43
PITTSBURGH	Cincinnati	10.0	9.1	6.2	6 1/2	42
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	9.7	9.9	8.5	6 1/2	37 1/2
New York Jets	WASHINGTON	5.2	3.6	2.1	3	38
Atlanta	HOUSTON	3.2	3.1	5.1	2 1/2	39
TAMPA BAY	Carolina	5.5	5.1	3.2	3	48 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Detroit	12.1	8.4	8.1	9	54 1/2
Denver	MINNESOTA	1.2	1.7	6.3	Pk	37 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	St. Louis	15.4	19.3	19.1	13	37 1/2
Dallas	ARIZONA	4.0	7.1	5.4	4 1/2	45 1/2
Green Bay	NEW YORK GIANTS	12.4	12.7	6.5	7	53
NEW ENGLAND	Indianapolis	25.9	27.9	26.8	20 1/2	49
JACKSONVILLE	San Diego	3.3	3.1	-1.1	-2 1/2	39

 

Playoff Projections

There are some changes to this week’s playoff projections.  Detroit has been removed from a wildcard spot, while Atlanta has been added.  Chicago has dropped back to the #6 seed in the NFC with a couple extra losses figured into their finish.

 

In the AFC, Denver is now expected to finish in a tie with Oakland for the West Division title and win the playoff spot based on tiebreakers.

 

Houston is expected to plummet with a 2-3 finish, but the Texans are comfortably ahead of second place Tennessee.  It will cost the Texans a spot in the seedings.

 

N F C

1. Green Bay

2. San Francisco

3. New Orleans

4. Dallas

5. Atlanta

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Denver

4. Houston

5. Baltimore

6. Cincinnati

 

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Chicago

Dallas over Atlanta

Denver over Cincinnati

Baltimore over Houston

 

Divisional Round

Green Bay over Dallas

New Orleans over San Francisco

Pittsburgh over Denver

New England over Baltimore

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over New Orleans

Pittsburgh over New England

 

SUPER BOWL

Green Bay over Pittsburgh

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 12–November 24-28, 2011

Let’s Talk Turkey

This is not a food blog, but we here at the PiRate Ratings have to tell you our favorite method for cooking a turkey.  It is the easiest way to cook it thoroughly and yet have a moist and tender turkey with lots of delicious gravy.

 

First, purchase an already brined turkey.  We prefer hens to toms because they are more tender and flavorful.

 

We place the brined turkey in a Nesco 18-qt. Roaster, but you can use any type as long as your roaster has a tight-fitting lid.

 

Rub your turkey with your favorite seasonings.  We use an organic, no salt seasoning that has garlic, rosemary, sage, savory, and other seasonings.  Place your turkey in your roaster and then add enough water until the water is about 1 ½ to 2 inches in depth.

 

Add two quartered yellow onions into the water.  Insert a meat thermometer in one of the turkey thighs.  We love our Oxo instant read digital thermometer, so we can always easily read the temperature without opening the lid.  If you have a temperature alarm, set it for 165 degrees.

 

Fasten the lid on the roaster and roast at 350 degrees.  In about two hours, the thermometer should show 165 degrees in the thigh.  It is almost done.  When you reach 165, turn the roaster temperature to 200 degrees.  Watch the meat thermometer closely.  When it reaches 175, your thigh is done, and so is your turkey.  Immediately remove it from the roaster and set on a carving block.  Unlike dry-roasted turkey, it will not rise another 10-15 degrees after removal from the roaster.

 

You will have a juicy bird that is tender enough for grandma and her false teeth.  The turkey is steam-cooked, and so the breast will not be dry and overcooked.

 

Take the cooking liquid and place it in a saucepan.  Heat it and add either milk or a milk substitute (almond milk is an excellent choice and what we use) with a little arrowroot powder or quinoa flour for thickening.  You have delicious gravy.

 

Back To Football

Three excellent games are scheduled for Thanksgiving Day.  Green Bay faces Detroit in what many are comparing to Turkey Day 1962.  The undefeated Packers were on their way to easily taking their second consecutive NFL Championship, while Detroit was definitely the second best pro team.  The Lions sacked Packer quarterback Bart Starr 11 times and upset Vince Lombardi’s best team 26-14.  It was Green Bay’s only blemish, as the Packers were never threatened the rest of the season and then blew out the Giants in the Championship Game.  As for Detroit, the Lions finished 11-3-0 and in second place.  Their reward was a trip to Miami to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Playoff Bowl.  Detroit won 17-10.

 

Dallas hosts Miami, and while the Dolphins are not in the playoff hunt, they are capable of upsetting the Cowboys.  Miami has won three games in a row, and they could be 7-3 instead of 3-7.

 

The primetime game would be great even if it was not a battle of the Harbaugh brothers.  Baltimore is as good as Green Bay when playing at home and as weak as Tampa Bay when playing on the road.  San Francisco could make a case for being a legitimate Super Bowl contender if they can knock off the Ravens.

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Dallas Cowboys	102.7	103.2	104.3	3.5	6	–	4	–	0	250	206
Philadelphia Eagles	102.4	101.3	103.2	2.5	4	–	6	–	0	237	213
New York Giants	102.0	100.9	102.5	1.5	6	–	4	–	0	228	228
Washington Redskins	91.3	93.0	92.4	4.5	3	–	7	–	0	160	205
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	113.0	109.8	109.7	2.5	10	–	0	–	0	355	212
Chicago Bears	107.6	107.8	108.4	3.5	7	–	3	–	0	268	207
Detroit Lions	102.3	104.9	107.7	3	7	–	3	–	0	301	219
Minnesota Vikings	93.8	96.5	92.7	5	2	–	8	–	0	200	271
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	106.5	106.0	104.2	4.5	7	–	3	–	0	313	228
Atlanta Falcons	105.2	104.2	105.2	2.5	6	–	4	–	0	235	213
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	96.7	97.2	99.8	2	4	–	6	–	0	182	268
Carolina Panthers	92.2	93.1	93.7	2.5	2	–	8	–	0	225	286
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	104.9	107.1	107.0	2.5	9	–	1	–	0	256	145
Seattle Seahawks	97.0	97.1	98.6	4	4	–	6	–	0	168	209
Arizona Cardinals	96.0	94.8	98.2	1.5	3	–	7	–	0	190	236
St. Louis Rams	92.1	91.0	88.3	3	2	–	8	–	0	120	247
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	109.9	108.8	108.0	2	7	–	3	–	0	293	203
New York Jets	102.4	102.4	98.9	2.5	5	–	5	–	0	228	217
Miami Dolphins	101.0	99.6	101.4	3	3	–	7	–	0	193	186
Buffalo Bills	93.0	96.0	98.0	3.5	5	–	5	–	0	237	253
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh Steelers	106.4	106.0	104.8	3.5	7	–	3	–	0	220	179
Baltimore Ravens	105.4	106.0	104.8	4.5	7	–	3	–	0	256	176
Cincinnati Bengals	99.9	101.2	102.8	2	6	–	4	–	0	236	195
Cleveland Browns	93.5	94.2	94.1	2.5	4	–	6	–	0	145	193
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	110.0	109.1	108.1	1.5	7	–	3	–	0	273	166
Tennessee Titans	99.4	99.7	97.2	2	5	–	5	–	0	203	195
Jacksonville Jaguars	98.5	97.1	92.9	3	3	–	7	–	0	125	180
Indianapolis Colts	88.6	86.7	86.1	2.5	0	–	10	–	0	131	300
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	99.6	98.6	96.7	3.5	4	–	6	–	0	236	259
Oakland Raiders	97.7	98.4	101.1	1	6	–	4	–	0	235	254
Denver Broncos	96.4	96.9	99.4	2	5	–	5	–	0	205	247
Kansas City Chiefs	93.5	91.7	89.9	1	4	–	6	–	0	144	252

 

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads

Home Team in CAPS

Vegas Line as of Tuesday, 11/22/2011 @ 4:00 PM EST

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Green Bay	DETROIT	7.7	1.9	-1.0	6 1/2	56
DALLAS	Miami	5.2	7.1	6.4	7	44
BALTIMORE	San Francisco	5.0	3.4	2.3	3	38 1/2
Arizona	ST. LOUIS	0.9	0.8	6.9	-3	40 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	Buffalo	11.9	8.9	3.4	8	42 1/2
CINCINNATI	Cleveland	8.4	9.0	10.7	7 1/2	37 1/2
Houston	JACKSONVILLE	8.5	9.0	12.2	3	37 1/2
Carolina	INDIANAPOLIS	1.1	3.9	5.1	3 1/2	44 1/2
TENNESSEE	Tampa Bay	4.7	4.5	-0.6	3	42
ATLANTA	Minnesota	13.9	10.2	15.0	9 1/2	44 1/2
Chicago	OAKLAND	8.9	8.4	6.3	-4 1/2	41 1/2
SEATTLE	Washington	9.7	8.1	10.2	4	37
New England	PHILADELPHIA	5.0	5.0	2.3	3	50 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Denver	6.7	5.2	0.8	6 1/2	43 1/2
Pittsburgh	KANSAS CITY	11.9	13.3	13.9	10	39 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	New York Giants	9.0	9.6	6.2	7	50 1/2

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

Wildcard Round

#6 Detroit Lions @ #3 New Orleans Saints

#5 Atlanta Falcons @ #4 Dallas Cowboys

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals @ #3 Houston Texans

#5 Baltimore Ravens @ #4 Oakland Raiders

 

Divisional Round

#4 Dallas Cowboys @ #1 Green Bay Packers

#3 New Orleans Saints @ #2 San Francisco 49ers

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals @ #1 New England Patriots

#4 Oakland Raiders @ #2 Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay Packers Over Pittsburgh Steelers

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 11–November 17-21, 2011

The Playoff Chase

This is the last week for byes in the schedule, so after Monday night, all 32 teams will have six games to go in the regular season.  Let’s take a look at each of the eight division races.

 

NFC East

New York Giants 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Phi, at NO, GB, at Dal, Was, at NYJ, Dal

 

Dallas Cowboys 5-4-0

Games Remaining:  at Was, Mia, at Ari, NYG, at TB, Phi, at NYG

 

Our Take

We see both teams finishing 10-6-0, and according to the way we see the games going, Dallas will win the tiebreaker based on better conference record.  The Giants will miss the playoffs altogether according to this scenario.

 

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 9-0-0

Games Remaining: TB, at Det, at NYG, Oak, at KC, Chi, Det

 

Detroit Lions 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Car, GB, at NO, Min, at Oak, SD, at GB

 

Chicago Bears 6-3-0

Games Remaining: SD, at Oak, KC, at Den, Sea, at GB, at Min

 

Our Take

Green Bay should lose at least one game, and we believe it will be the same one their great 1962 championship team lost—at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.

 

Chicago has a perfect schedule; the Bears could easily go 6-1 and should go at least 5-2 to earn a wildcard at 11-5-0.

 

Detroit has an excellent shot at 11-5-0 as well and should be at least 10-6-0.  At 10-6-0, we have them winning all the key tiebreakers to earn the final playoff spot.

 

NFC South

New Orleans Saints 7-3-0

Games Remaining: NYG, Det, at Ten, at Min, Atl, Car

 

Atlanta Falcons 5-4-0

Games Remaining: Ten, Min, at Hou, at Car, Jax, at NO, TB

 

Our Take

We feel this race is over after last Sunday.  The Falcons’ gamble did not pay off, and their loss is a playoff spot.  We believe the best Atlanta can do with their remaining schedule is go 5-2, and they will need to go 6-1 to win a wildcard spot.

 

New Orleans could make a run at the number two seed, but we believe they will have to settle for number three at 12-4-0 or 13-3-0.

 

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 8-1-0

Games Remaining: Ari, at Bal, Stl, at Ari, Pit, at Sea, at Stl

 

Our Take

This race has been over for quite some time.  Even if the 49ers lose their last seven games, they could still win this division by two games.  They are playing for a first round bye and home field advantage.  We do not believe San Francisco can win out, and we believe they will drop two or three games more, but the 49ers will be the number two seed.

 

AFC East

New England Patriots 6-3-0

Games Remaining: KC, at Phi, Ind, at Was, at Den, Mia, Buf

 

New York Jets 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Den, Buf, at Was, KC, at Phi, NYG, at Mia

 

Buffalo 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Mia, at NYJ, Ten, at SD, Mia, Den, at NE

 

Our Take

New England has this division wrapped up, and the Patriots have an easier schedule thanks to a date with the Colts.  The road to the overall conference number one seed is an easy parkway for the Pats; luck once again is on their side with Pittsburgh and Houston having quarterback issues that will cost them game(s).

 

The Jets may have to go 6-1 to qualify as a wildcard, and we do not see them doing so. 

 

As for the Bills, they are the NFL’s equivalent of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The Pirates were in first place as late as the last week of July, and they finished a distant fourth in the NL Central.  The Bills may not slide to last place, but we see them finishing under .500 after starting 5-2.

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers 7-3-0

Games Remaining: at KC, Cin, Cle, at SF, Stl, at Cle

 

Baltimore Ravens 6-3-0

Games Remaining: Cin, SF, at Cle, Ind, at SD, Cle, at Cin

 

Cincinnati Bengals 6-3-0

Games Remaining: at Bal, Cle, at Pit, Hou, at Stl, Ari, Bal

 

Our Take

Look at that easy schedule.  The Steelers have one difficult game remaining, and even if they get toasted at San Francisco, we cannot see Pittsburgh losing more than twice the rest of the way.  We really can only see them losing one more time, even with Ben Roethlisberger’s hand issue.

 

Baltimore is the one team that still enjoys a huge home field advantage.  They play like New England at home and like Cleveland on the road.  They will win their four remaining home games and pull off one on the road to sew up a wildcard spot.

 

Cincinnati must defeat Cleveland, St. Louis, Arizona, and Baltimore (at home), and then they need to pull off an upset.  With Houston in dire straits at quarterback, we feel the Bengals can win that one and earn a wildcard berth.  Marvin Lewis should get NFL Coach of the Year if he can guide this team to the playoffs.

 

AFC South

Houston Texans 7-3-0

Games Remaining: at Jax, Atl, at Cin, Car, at Ind, Ten

 

Tennessee Titans 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Atl, TB, at Buf, NO, at Ind, Jax, at Hou

 

Our Take

Houston must try to finish the season with Matt Leinart running the offense and with no Andre Johnson to toss to.  Their defense is missing Mario Williams, yet, if the season ended today, the Texans would be the number one seed in the AFC.  That will change, as the Texans will take a tumble following their bye week.  We expect Houston to fare no better than 3-3 in the final six weeks and as weak as 2-4.  Still, at 9-7-0, they can win this unexpectedly weak division.

 

Tennessee can beat the weak teams, and the teams that play poorly on the road, but against quality competition, they do not compete.  The Titans could sneak in at 9-7-0 if the Texans totally collapse, but we feel this is an 8-8-0 team.

 

AFC West

Oakland Raiders 5-4-0

Games Remaining: at Min, Chi, at Mia, at GB, Det, at KC, SD

 

San Diego Chargers 4-5-0

Games Remaining: at Chi, Den, at Jax, Buf, Bal, at Det, at Oak

 

Denver Broncos 4-5-0

Games Remaining: NYJ, at SD, at Min, Chi, NE, at Buf, KC

 

Kansas City Chiefs 4-5-0

Games Remaining: at NE, Pit, at Chi, at NYJ, GB, Oak, at Den

 

Our Take

One team has to finish 8-8-0 or maybe 9-7-0, and all four have tough finishing schedules (any game outside of the division has to be considered tough for these four).

 

Oakland has a one game lead over the other three, and for that reason alone, we will go with the Raiders to return to the playoffs.

 

San Diego has lost more than they have won to this point, and the toughest part of their schedule is still to come.  We cannot fathom the Chargers going 5-2 from here to the end of the season.

 

Kansas City dug themselves too big a hole to dig out of and stand on top of the pile.  They could even lose out against this schedule.

 

As for Denver, what can we say?  They find ways to win when they complete two passes!  Tim Tebow is a 21^st Century Bobby Douglass.  He could very well lead the NFL in yards per rush, just like Douglas did in 1972, when he almost rushed for 1,000 yards.  Douglass didn’t take the Bears to the playoffs, and Tebow won’t take the Broncos there either.

 

As We See The Playoffs (this week)

Wildcard Round

#3 New Orleans Saints over #6 Detroit Lions

#5 Chicago Bears over  #4 Dallas Cowboys

 

#6 Cincinnati Bengals over #3 Houston Texans

#4 Oakland Raiders over #5 Baltimore Ravens

 

Divisional Round

#1 Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears

#2 San Francisco 49ers over New Orleans Saints

 

#1 New England Patriots over Cincinnati Bengals

#2 Pittsburgh Steelers over Oakland Raiders

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay Packers over San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots

 

Super Bowl

Hey, haven’t we been here before?

Green Bay Packers in a repeat over Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Back To The Present Time—Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Dallas Cowboys	103.1	103.9	103.9	3.5	5	–	4	–	0	223	182
New York Giants	103.1	101.9	103.2	1.5	6	–	3	–	0	218	211
Philadelphia Eagles	101.2	101.0	101.1	2.5	3	–	6	–	0	220	203
Washington Redskins	90.9	92.5	91.7	4.5	3	–	6	–	0	136	178
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	113.6	113.3	109.5	2.5	9	–	0	–	0	320	186
Chicago Bears	107.5	107.2	107.9	3.5	6	–	3	–	0	237	187
Detroit Lions	102.0	104.0	106.0	3	6	–	3	–	0	252	184
Minnesota Vikings	94.4	94.3	93.9	5	2	–	7	–	0	179	244
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	106.5	105.7	104.7	4.5	7	–	3	–	0	313	228
Atlanta Falcons	105.1	103.6	103.9	2.5	5	–	4	–	0	212	196
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	96.1	96.2	98.7	2	4	–	5	–	0	156	233
Carolina Panthers	92.5	92.7	97.6	2.5	2	–	7	–	0	190	237
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	104.6	106.7	106.4	2.5	8	–	1	–	0	233	138
Arizona Cardinals	96.3	94.9	99.7	1.5	3	–	6	–	0	183	213
St. Louis Rams	94.6	92.3	90.6	3	2	–	7	–	0	113	223
Seattle Seahawks	94.5	95.2	96.2	4	3	–	6	–	0	144	202
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	107.6	108.5	106.0	2	6	–	3	–	0	259	200
New York Jets	104.2	104.0	101.8	2.5	5	–	4	–	0	215	200
Miami Dolphins	98.6	97.7	97.8	3	2	–	7	–	0	158	178
Buffalo Bills	95.4	98.5	97.7	3.5	5	–	4	–	0	229	218
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh Steelers	106.4	106.5	104.1	3.5	7	–	3	–	0	220	179
Baltimore Ravens	105.9	105.9	105.2	4.5	6	–	3	–	0	225	152
Cincinnati Bengals	99.4	100.0	102.3	2	6	–	3	–	0	212	164
Cleveland Browns	92.7	93.0	92.9	2.5	3	–	6	–	0	131	183
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	110.0	109.3	107.6	1.5	7	–	3	–	0	273	166
Tennessee Titans	99.5	100.2	99.7	2	5	–	4	–	0	186	172
Jacksonville Jaguars	99.3	97.7	95.3	3	3	–	6	–	0	115	166
Indianapolis Colts	88.6	86.6	87.0	2.5	0	–	10	–	0	131	300
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	99.7	98.9	97.0	3.5	4	–	5	–	0	216	228
Oakland Raiders	97.1	98.4	99.2	1	5	–	4	–	0	208	233
Kansas City Chiefs	95.8	93.6	93.8	1	4	–	5	–	0	141	218
Denver Broncos	94.6	96.0	97.7	2	4	–	5	–	0	188	234

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads.

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 10: November 17-21, 2011
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, November 15 @ 4:00 PM EST

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
New York Jets	DENVER	7.6	6.0	2.1	4 1/2	40 1/2
ATLANTA	Tennessee	8.1	5.9	6.7	6	44
MIAMI	Buffalo	6.2	2.2	3.1	2 1/2	43
BALTIMORE	Cincinnati	11.0	10.4	7.4	7	40 1/2
Jacksonville	CLEVELAND	4.1	2.2	-0.1	1	35 1/2
MINNESOTA	Oakland	2.3	0.9	-0.3	-1 1/2	45
DETROIT	Carolina	12.5	14.3	11.4	7	47 1/2
GREEN BAY	Tampa Bay	20.0	19.6	13.3	14 1/2	49
Dallas	WASHINGTON	7.7	6.9	7.7	7 1/2	41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Arizona	10.8	14.3	9.2	9 1/2	41 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Seattle	3.1	0.1	-2.6	2	39
CHICAGO	San Diego	11.3	11.8	14.4	3 1/2	45
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia	3.4	2.4	3.6	4	47
NEW ENGLAND	Kansas City	13.8	11.6	14.2	14 1/2	47