Sweet 16–Friday, March 23
| Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
| Kansas | Clemson | 1.7 |
| Villanova | West Virginia | 6.4 |
| Duke | Syracuse | 5.1 |
| Purdue | Texas Tech | 3.3 |
Friday Night’s Schedule
| Friday, Mar 23, 2018 | ||||
| TIME (EDT) | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | City | TV |
| 7:07 PM | 1 Kansas | 5 Clemson | Omaha | CBS |
| 7:27 PM | 1 Villanova | 5 West Virginia | Boston | TBS |
| 9:37 PM | 2 Duke | 11 Syracuse | Omaha | CBS |
| 9:57 PM | 2 Purdue | 3 Texas Tech | Boston | TBS |
Sunday’s PiRate Rating Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games
| Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
| Purdue | Butler | 5.4 |
| Michigan St. | Syracuse | 8.5 |
| North Carolina | Texas A&M | 5.9 |
| Cincinnati | Nevada | 4.9 |
| Auburn | Clemson | 1.4 |
| Kansas St. | MD-Baltimore Co. | 9.8 |
| Xavier | Florida St. | 3.7 |
| West Virginia | Marshall | 10.2 |
Sunday’s TV Schedule
All times Eastern Daylight
| Sunday, Mar 18, 2018 | ||||
| TIME | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | City | TV |
| 12:10 PM | 2 Purdue | 10 Butler | Detroit | CBS |
| 2:40 PM | 3 Michigan St. | 11 Syracuse | Detroit | CBS |
| 5:15 PM | 2 North Carolina | 7 Texas A&M | Charlotte | CBS |
| 6:10 PM | 2 Cincinnati | 7 Nevada | Nashville | TNT |
| 7:10 PM | 4 Auburn | 5 Clemson | San Diego | TBS |
| 7:45 PM | 9 Kansas St. | 16 MD-Baltimore Co. | Charlotte | TruTV |
| 8:40 PM | 1 Xavier | 9 Florida St. | Nashville | TNT |
| 9:40 PM | 5 West Virginia | 13 Marshall | San Diego | TBS |
Bracket-Picking Criteria Results
Of the eight teams in the Sweet 16 as of Saturday night, we still have six teams alive. Our picks went 6-2 and were within a half-second of going 8-0, as our two losses came on last-second shots in the Loyola-Tennessee and Michigan-Houston games.
For the tournament, our picks are now 32-12.
The New PiRate Ratings Bracketology Criteria have performed on par with the traditional criteria that we used for over 20 years. We will wait until the championship before deciding if the new criteria was worth discarding the old method.
Here is a look at today’s games as the criteria applies to each of the eight contests.
Purdue vs. Butler
The big question is, “Will Isaac Haas play?” The next biggest question is, “If he plays, can he be anywhere near 100%?”
If Haas is able to give anything close to his regular contribution, Purdue is too strong for Butler. But, as we have already seen in this tournament, Virginia not having its best defender, and Tennessee not having one of its key big men available were contributing factors in losses. If Haas is not able to play, then Butler gains a major advantage in this game. The Boilermakers rely on Haas more for his offense than his defense, and it is true shooting percentage margin where Purdue is so superior in this contest. Remove Haas and his 66% TS%, and this advantage melts away somewhat.
PiRate Pick: Purdue
Michigan St. vs. Syracuse
This will be an interesting contest. The schedule strengths are identical, so we can look at the stats as if the two teams have played the same exact schedules. Michigan State has a clear true shooting percentage margin advantage and the Spartans also enjoy a modest R+T rating advantage.
The interest in this game comes from Michigan State’s issue against zone defenses. The Syracuse 2-3 matchup zone is tough to face the first time, and the Spartans had all of a day to study it and then implement a strategy against it.
It’s a different zone entirely, but Michigan State fared poorly twice against Michigan’s 1-3-1 trapping zone. Syracuse will trap out of their matchup zone as well.
On paper, Miles Bridges and Cassius Winston should thrive against zone defenses, but they did not hit from outside in one of the two games, and they turned the ball over against the traps the other. Maybe, the third time’s the charm? Or then maybe Syracuse is primed to make another surprise run to the Final Four? We’ll stick with Sparty.
PiRate Pick: Michigan St.
North Carolina vs. Texas A&M
North Carolina is almost playing at home, but Kansas just showed that having an in-state regional doesn’t guarantee two easy victories. However, the Jayhawks advanced, so the Tar Heels should get a little extra help with maybe a point or point and a half for playing so close to home as the state school where the tournament will be played.
The Tar Heels don’t need all that much extra oomph in the Big Dance. They are the defending champions, and they appear to be nearing peak performance at the right time.
Texas A&M is not going to be the weak victim. The Aggies will have the power to keep the inside game honest. A&M actually has a slightly better true shooting percentage margin than the Tar Heels, but North Carolina enjoys the R+T advantage. Down the road, North Carolina might struggle against a team that can force turnovers, but A&M isn’t one of those teams.
PiRate Pick: North Carolina
Cincinnati vs. Nevada
This game could be interesting for awhile, but Cincinnati is a bit too physical for the underdog Wolf Pack. The Bearcats’ R+T rating advantage is considerable here, and they enjoy a small true shooting percentage advantage as well. Eventually, Cinti will dominate on the glass, and this should lead to a run of several points, where the Bearcats send the Wolf Pack back to Reno, and that’s no gamble saying so.
PiRate Pick: Cincinnati
Auburn vs. Clemson
This is another one of those games where one key injury makes a huge difference in one team’s statistics. Auburn just narrowly escaped a first round upset bid by Charleston, and without a dominating or even contributing big man, the Tigers just aren’t the same team they were before Anfernee McLemore was lost for the season.
Clemson is not going to just show up and win this game, and they may not win even if they produce an A+ effort. Auburn still has a tough pressure defense on the perimeter, and Clemson has a negative turnover margin, so the War Eagles should get a couple extra scoring opportunities with steals.
However, when it comes down to it, Clemson has a decidedly better true shooting percentage margin and should be able to score inside enough times to win this battle again. CU enjoys a slightly better stength of schedule, and this should be the final nail in the coffin in this game.
PiRate Pick: Clemson
Kansas St. vs. MD-Baltimore Co.
Can they do it again? Is there any way a Number 16 seed can be one of the last 16 in the field? Here’s the funny thing about this game: Kansas State is precariously on the minimum R+T margin line to be picked against anybody in the tournament. Teams that rebound as poorly as Kansas State seldom make it very far in the NCAA Tournament. There are just a handful of teams in the last 50 years that won twice in one NCAA Tournament when their rebounding margin was worse than -3.
Maryland-Baltimore County would have been our pick in this game if the Terriers had a positive rebounding margin of 1.5 or better, but UMBC also has a negative rebounding margin. The Terriers might have been our pick if they held the true shooting percentage margin advantage in this game, but Kansas State has the better numbers here as well. Throw in the fact that the Wildcats’ schedule strength is about 15 points stronger than that of UMBC, and we just cannot pull the trigger on this one and take the most incredible long shot to ever make the Sweet 16.
PiRate Pick: Kansas St.
Xavier vs. Florida St.
This game should be the second most exciting game of the day. The Seminoles match up well with the top-seeded Musketeers, and this game should remain close for at least all of the first half and a good bit of the second half. Xavier has a slightly stronger schedule strength which makes their true shooting percentage margin and R+T rating advantages enough to matter. The margin of safety in this game is rather small, almost nonexistent, so a cold shooting day by Xavier could be enough to turn this game the other way.
PiRate Pick: Xavier
West Virginia vs.Marshall
We saved the best for last. In case you didn’t know, there is more than just a Round of 32 game here. These two in-state rivals don’t get along, and it’s almost as hated as Xavier and Cincinnati. It carries over to the two coaches, as they don’t really like each other.
When there is a game like this, the smaller school almost always benefits in some way.
Marshall is a woman scorned as these teams prepare to face off in a foreign land known as San Diego. West Virginia refuses to play Marshall in basketball (and football), unless the Mountaineers get two home games for every Thundering Herd home game.
What about the game itself? This will be the most interesting game of the day. Press Virginia’s defense may not exploit much in the way Marshall attacks it. The Herd had no difficulty facing Middle Tennessee’s trapping defense, as they pasted the CUSA regular season champions both times they faced them.
Alas, there is one important rule that we always follow at the PiRate Ratings. Whenever a team in the NCAA Tournament had a negative R+T Rating, we select the other team as long as that team has a positive R+T Rating. Marshall’s R+T Rating is -4.8, while the Mountaineers have a 16.6 R+T, and that is enough to give WVU about 18 more scoring opportunities. Marshall would have to hit about 18 three-pointers to neutralize that advantage.
PiRate Pick: West Virginia
Original PiRate Ratings Bracketology Sunday Teams Picked for Sweet 16
All 8 of our original picks are still alive today.
Cincinnati
Xavier
North Carolina
West Virginia
Texas Tech
Purdue
Clemson
Michigan St.
Friday’s PiRate Rating Spreads For NCAA Tournament Games
| Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Spread |
| Texas A&M | Providence | 3.8 |
| Purdue | Cal St. Fullerton | 17.0 |
| Wichita St. | Marshall | 9.4 |
| Cincinnati | Georgia St. | 12.7 |
| North Carolina | Lipscomb | 17.4 |
| Arkansas | Butler | -1.2 |
| West Virginia | Murray St. | 6.3 |
| Nevada | Texas | 2.5 |
| Creighton | Kansas St. | 2.5 |
| Michigan St. | Bucknell | 12.8 |
| Xavier | Texas Southern | 20.0 |
| Auburn | Charleston | 11.9 |
| Virginia | MD-Baltimore Co. | 20.6 |
| TCU | Syracuse | 4.3 |
| Missouri | Florida St. | -1.1 |
| Clemson | New Mexico St. | 4.1 |
Today’s NCAA Tournament Schedule
| Friday, Mar 16, 2018 | ||||
| TIME | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | City | TV |
| 12:15 PM | 7 Texas A&M | 10 Providence | Charlotte | CBS |
| 12:40 PM | 2 Purdue | 15 Cal St. Fullerton | Detroit | truTV |
| 1:30 PM | 4 Wichita St. | 13 Marshall | San Diego | TNT |
| 2:00 PM | 2 Cincinnati | 15 Georgia St. | Nashville | TBS |
| 2:45 PM | 2 North Carolina | 15 Lipscomb | Charlotte | CBS |
| 3:10 PM | 7 Arkansas | 10 Butler | Detroit | truTV |
| 4:00 PM | 5 West Virginia | 12 Murray St. | San Diego | TNT |
| 4:30 PM | 7 Nevada | 10 Texas | Nashville | TBS |
| 6:50 PM | 8 Creighton | 9 Kansas St. | Charlotte | TNT |
| 7:10 PM | 3 Michigan St. | 14 Bucknell | Detroit | CBS |
| 7:20 PM | 1 Xavier | 16 Texas Southern | Nashville | TBS |
| 7:27 PM | 4 Auburn | 13 Charleston | San Diego | truTV |
| 9:20 PM | 1 Virginia | 16 MD-Baltimore Co. | Charlotte | TNT |
| 9:40 PM | 6 TCU | 11 Syracuse | Detroit | CBS |
| 9:50 PM | 8 Missouri | 9 Florida St. | Nashville | TBS |
| 9:57 PM | 5 Clemson | 12 New Mexico St. | San Diego | truTV |
Saturday’s Schedule
| Saturday, Mar 17, 2018 | ||||
| TIME | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | City | TV |
| 12:10 PM | 1 Villanova | 9 Alabama | Pittsburgh | CBS |
| 2:40 PM | 2 Duke | 7 Rhode Island | Pittsburgh | CBS |
| 5:15 PM | 5 Kentucky | 13 Buffalo | Boise, ID | CBS |
| 6:10 PM | 3 Tennessee | 11 Loyola (Chi.) | Dallas | TNT |
| 7:10 PM | 1 Kansas | 8 Seton Hall | Wichita, KS | TBS |
| 7:45 PM | 4 Gonzaga | 5 Ohio St. | Boise, ID | CBS |
| 8:40 PM | 3 North Texas | 6 Florida | Dallas | TNT |
| 9:40 PM | 3 Michigan | 6 Houston | Wichita, KS | TBS |
Bracket Results To Date: 15-5
Today’s Criteria Bracket Picks
Virginia over Maryland-Baltimore Co.
Creighton over Kansas St.
Texas over Nevada
Cincinnati over Georgia St.
Xavier over Texas Southern
Missouri over Florida St.
Texas A&M over Providence
North Carolina over Lipscomb
West Virginia over Murray St.
Wichita St. over Marshall
Butler over Arkansas
Purdue over Cal. St. Fullerton
Clemson over New Mexico St.
Auburn over College of Charleston
Syracuse over TCU
Michigan St. over Bucknell
Spreads For Sunday’s Games
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| Wichita St. | Cincinnati | -0.9 |
| South Florida | SMU | -11.0 |
| Tulsa | Temple | 1.0 |
| Memphis | East Carolina | 11.0 |
| Houston | Connecticut | 15.2 |
| Central Florida | Tulane | 8.3 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | Lipscomb | 6.5 |
| Radford | Liberty | 3.8 |
| Purdue | Michigan | 3.9 |
| Charleston | Drexel | 9.8 |
| William & Mary | Towson | -1.6 |
| Northeastern | Delaware | 8.9 |
| Hofstra | UNC-Wilmington | 6.4 |
| Illinois-Chicago | Milwaukee | 0.1 |
| Oakland | IUPUI | 7.3 |
| Iona | St. Peter’s | 5.1 |
| Fairfield | Quinnipiac | 3.7 |
| Loyola (Chi.) | Illinois St. | 7.9 |
| Colgate | Holy Cross | 4.8 |
| Bucknell | Boston U | 9.2 |
| UNC-Greensboro | Wofford | 4.9 |
| East Tennessee St. | Furman | -0.3 |
| Fort Wayne | North Dakota St. | 0.9 |
| Denver | Oral Roberts | 1.5 |
| Gonzaga | San Francisco | 14.5 |
| Saint Mary’s | BYU | 4.5 |
Note: Games in Bright Red are for Automatic NCAA Tournament Bids
Automatic NCAA Tournament Bids Awarded to Date
Murray State (26-5)
| Ohio Valley Conference Tournament | |
| Murray St. 68 | Belmont 51 |
Conference Tournaments Scores From Saturday with Updated Brackets
| America East Conference Tournament | |
| Quarterfinals–March 3 | |
| UMBC 89 | UMass-Lowell 77 |
| Hartford 71 | New Hampshire 60 |
| Vermont 75 | Maine 60 |
| Stony Brook 69 | Albany 60 |
| Semifinals–March 6 | |||
| Time | Home | Visitors | TV |
| 7:00 PM | #1 Vermont | #5 Stony Brook | ESPN3 |
| 7:30 PM | #2 UMBC | #3 Hartford | ESPN3 |
| Championship–March 10 | |||
| Time | Home | Visitors | TV |
| 11:00 AM | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | ESPN2 |
| Big Ten Conference Tournament | |
| Michigan 75 | Michigan St. 64 |
| Purdue 78 | Penn St. 70 |
| Championship–March 4 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 4:30 PM | #3 Purdue | #5 Michigan | CBS |
| Colonial Athletic Association Tournament | |
| First Round–March 3 | |
| Drexel 70 | James Madison 62 |
| Delaware 86 | Elon 79 |
| Quarterfinals–March 4 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 12:00 PM | #1 College of Charleston | #8 Drexel | CAA TV |
| 2:30 PM | #4 William & Mary | #5 Towson | CAA TV |
| 6:00 PM | #2 Northeastern | #7 Delaware | CAA TV |
| 8:30 PM | #3 Hofstra | #6 UNC-Wilmington | CAA TV |
| Semifinals–March 5 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 6:00 PM | CofC/Drex/JMU | W&M or Towson | CBSSN |
| 8:30 PM | NE/Del/Elon | Hofstra or UNCW | CBSSN |
| Championship–March 6 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 7:00 PM | CBSSN | ||
| Horizon League Tournament | |
| Wright St. 87 | Green Bay 72 |
| Cleveland St. 89 | Northern Kentucky 80 |
| Quarterfinals–March 4 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 5:00 PM | #3 UIC | #6 Milwaukee | ESPN3 |
| 7:30 PM | #4 Oakland | #5 IUPUI | ESPN3 |
| Semifinals–March 5 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 7:00 PM | Oakland or IUPUI | #8 Cleveland St. | ESPNU |
| 9:30 PM | #2 Wright St. | UIC or Milwaukee | ESPNU |
| Championship–March 6 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | ||
| Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament | |
| Fairfield 90 | Niagara 77 |
| Iona 72 | Manhattan 60 |
| Semifinals–March 4 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 7:00 PM | #4 Iona | #9 St. Peter’s | ESPN3 |
| 9:30 PM | #6 Fairfield | #7 Quinnipiac | ESPN3 |
| Championship–March 5 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 7:00 PM | ESPN | ||
| Missouri Valley Conference Tournament | |
| Loyola (Chi.) 62 | Bradley 54 |
| Illinois St. 76 | Southern Illinois 68 |
| Championship–March 4 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 1:00 PM | #1 Loyola (Chi.) | #3 Illinois St. | CBS |
| Northeast Conference Tournament | |
| Wagner 75 | Robert Morris 64 |
| Long Island 78 | Fairleigh-Dickinson 77 |
| Championship–March 6 | |||
| Time | Home Team | Visitors | TV |
| 7:00 PM | #1 Wagner | #4 Long Island | ESPN2 |
| Southern Conference Tournament | |
| UNC-Greensboro 72 | The Citadel 58 |
| Wofford 73 | Mercer 53 |
| East Tennessee St. 77 | Chattanooga 59 |
| Furman 97 | Western Carolina 73 |
| Semifinals–March 4 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 4:00 PM | #1 UNC-Greensboro | #5 Wofford | ESPN3 |
| 6:30 PM | #2 East Tennessee St. | #3 Furman | ESPN3 |
| Championship–March 5 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 9:00 PM | ESPN2 | ||
| Summit League Tournament | |
| Quarterfinals–March 3 | |
| South Dakota St. 66 | Western Illiois 60 |
| South Dakota 87 | Omaha 73 |
| Quarterfinals–March 4 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 6:00 PM | #4 Fort Wayne | #5 North Dakota St. | ESPN3 |
| 8:30 PM | #3 Denver | #6 Oral Roberts | ESPN3 |
| Semifinals–March 5 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 6:00 PM | #1 South Dakota St. | Ft.Wayne or NDSU | ESPN3 |
| 8:30 PM | #2 South Dakota | Denver or ORU | ESPN3 |
| Championship–March 6 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 8:00 PM | ESPN2 | ||
| West Coast Conference Tournament | |
| BYU 85 | San Diego 79 |
| San Francisco 71 | Pacific 70 ot |
| Gonzaga 83 | Loyola Marymount 69 |
| Saint Mary’s 69 | Pepperdine 66 |
| Semifinals–March 4 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 6:00 PM | #1 Gonzaga | #4 San Francisco | ESPN |
| 8:00 PM | #2 Saint Mary’s | #3 BYU | ESPN2 |
| Championship–March 6 | |||
| Time | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | TV |
| 6:00 PM | ESPN | ||
Other Conference Tournaments Resuming Today
| Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament | |||
| Championship–March 4 | |||
| Time | Home | Visitors | TV |
| 3:00 PM | #1 Florida Gulf Coast | #2 Lipscomb | ESPN |
| Big South Conference Tournament | |||
| Championship–March 4 | |||
| Time | Home | Visitors | TV |
| 1:00 PM | #2 Radford | #5 Liberty | ESPN |
| Semifinals–March 4 | |||
| Time | Home | Visitors | TV |
| 12:00 PM | #2 Colgate | #6 Holy Cross | CBSSN |
| 2:00 PM | #1 Bucknell | #5 Boston U | CBSSN |
| Championship–March 7 | |||
| Time | Home | Visitors | TV |
| 7:30 PM | CBSSN | ||
Bids That Will Be Awarded on Sunday
Big South Conference: Radford or Liberty 1:00 PM EST on ESPN
Even with 2-seed Radford’s home court advantage, this game should be considered close to a toss-up. Earlier in the season, these two teams had to play an extra five minutes to determine the outcome, as Radford won by a bucket 59-57. Of the 20 players that appeared in that game, only one could find the basket consistently that night, as Radford’s Ed Polite, Jr. finished a perfect 7 for 7 from the field in that game. It was no fluke, as in the return game at Liberty, Polite, Jr. went 7 for 10 from the field with a three-pointer and a perfect 8 for 8 at the line for 23 points, as Radford cruised to an easy win. Any chance Liberty has of winning will come from limiting Radford’s ability to get second chance baskets and getting to the foul line, where they lead the Big South with a 78.5% accuracy rate.
Missouri Valley Conference: Loyola (Chi.) or Illinois St. 2:00 PM EST on CBS
Loyola is the top seed, while Illinois State is the 3-seed. During the regular season, Loyola won by identical 68-61 scores in a season sweep. The Ramblers have won nine consecutive games and would be a formidable foe as an underdog in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They rank third nationally in field goal percentage at 51% per game, and they play competent defense without fouling.
Atlantic Sun Conference: Florida Gulf Coast or Lipscomb 3:00 PM EST on ESPN
These are the top two seeds, and they split the season series, winning on the other team’s home floor. This game will be played at FGCU, where Lipscomb beat the Eagles 90-87, despite being forced into 23 turnovers at the hands of 19 FGCU steals. Lipscomb has won seven games in a row and 11 out of 12, but FGCU is tournament tough and has been there before. The Eagles have owned this league since Belmont left for the OVC, while Lipscomb has never been to the NCAA Tournament and only appeared in one previous A-Sun Tournament Championship Game. This game should be exciting.
Big Ten: Purdue or Michigan 4:30 PM EST on CBS
Obviously, both teams are going to the NCAA Tournament, as will be Michigan State and Ohio State. Nebraska has little or no chance, while Penn State’s chances of getting in are only marginally better.
This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads
Spreads For Multi-Bid Conferences and Top Mid & Low Majors
| Friday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| St. Bonaventure | Rhode Island | 0.6 |
| Saturday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| Central Florida | SMU | -0.7 |
| Tulane | Memphis | 2.7 |
| Miami (Fla.) | Syracuse | 6.2 |
| Georgia Tech | Virginia Tech | -5.1 |
| Boston College | Notre Dame | -0.9 |
| Wake Forest | North Carolina St. | 0.3 |
| Louisville | North Carolina | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | Texas | 5.7 |
| Kansas St. | Iowa St. | 7.5 |
| Kansas | West Virginia | 3.9 |
| Baylor | Texas Tech | -1.1 |
| TCU | Oklahoma St. | 8.3 |
| Butler | Providence | 8.0 |
| Xavier | Villanova | -4.0 |
| Creighton | Marquette | 8.0 |
| Northwestern | Michigan St. | -9.4 |
| Iowa | Indiana | 0.9 |
| Maryland | Rutgers | 12.6 |
| Boise St. | Air Force | 17.8 |
| San Diego St. | UNLV | 3.9 |
| Wyoming | San Jose St. | 15.1 |
| Utah St. | Nevada | -8.1 |
| Fresno St. | Colorado St. | 13.9 |
| Washington | Colorado | 3.7 |
| Washington St. | Utah | -7.5 |
| UCLA | Oregon | 4.9 |
| USC | Oregon St. | 9.5 |
| LSU | Missouri | 0.4 |
| Kentucky | Alabama | 4.4 |
| South Carolina | Auburn | -6.4 |
| Arkansas | Texas A&M | 2.7 |
| Vanderbilt | Florida | -3.2 |
| Georgia | Tennessee | -4.4 |
| Mississippi St. | Ole Miss | 6.3 |
| San Diego | BYU | -3.4 |
| San Francisco | Loyola Marymount | 8.8 |
| Gonzaga | Pepperdine | 29.2 |
| Portland | Saint Mary’s | -16.1 |
| Pacific | Santa Clara | 10.0 |
| Louisiana Tech | Middle Tennessee | -3.8 |
| Rice | Western Kentucky | -12.2 |
| Murray St. | Tennessee Tech | 14.1 |
| Louisiana-Lafayette | Texas-Arlington | 10.3 |
| Seattle | New Mexico St. | -8.0 |
| Sunday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| East Carolina | Connecticut | -4.7 |
| Tulsa | South Florida | 15.9 |
| Cincinnati | Wichita St. | 7.3 |
| Temple | Houston | -2.2 |
| Clemson | Duke | -3.1 |
| Florida St. | Pittsburgh | 20.7 |
| Seton Hall | DePaul | 11.4 |
| Michigan | Ohio St. | 2.0 |
| Illinois | Nebraska | -0.7 |
| Purdue | Penn St. | 11.9 |
| California | Stanford | -6.4 |
| Evansville | Loyola (Chi.) | -5.9 |
PiRate Ratings Top 25
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Conf. |
| 1 | Villanova | 120.5 | BIGE |
| 2 | Purdue | 119.9 | BTEN |
| 3 | Duke | 119.8 | ACC |
| 4 | Virginia | 119.6 | ACC |
| 5 | Michigan St. | 119.4 | BTEN |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 118.5 | AAC |
| 7 | North Carolina | 116.1 | ACC |
| 8 | Gonzaga | 116.0 | WCC |
| 9 | Kansas | 116.0 | B12 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 116.0 | B12 |
| 11 | West Virginia | 115.6 | B12 |
| 12 | Auburn | 115.2 | SEC |
| 13 | Wichita St. | 114.7 | AAC |
| 14 | Tennessee | 114.1 | SEC |
| 15 | Creighton | 113.4 | BIGE |
| 16 | Ohio St. | 113.4 | BTEN |
| 17 | Clemson | 113.2 | ACC |
| 18 | Xavier | 113.0 | BIGE |
| 19 | Arizona | 112.8 | PAC12 |
| 20 | Nevada | 112.5 | MWC |
| 21 | TCU | 112.4 | B12 |
| 22 | Texas A&M | 112.4 | SEC |
| 23 | Florida St. | 112.3 | ACC |
| 24 | Oklahoma | 112.2 | B12 |
| 25 | Louisville | 112.1 | ACC |
PiRate Ratings By Power Conferences
| Team | PiRate | Conf. |
| Cincinnati | 118.5 | AAC |
| Wichita St. | 114.7 | AAC |
| Houston | 111.5 | AAC |
| SMU | 107.6 | AAC |
| Temple | 105.8 | AAC |
| UCF | 103.9 | AAC |
| Tulsa | 102.3 | AAC |
| Memphis | 99.7 | AAC |
| Tulane | 99.4 | AAC |
| Connecticut | 99.4 | AAC |
| East Carolina | 91.7 | AAC |
| South Florida | 89.9 | AAC |
| Duke | 119.8 | ACC |
| Virginia | 119.6 | ACC |
| North Carolina | 116.1 | ACC |
| Clemson | 113.2 | ACC |
| Florida St. | 112.3 | ACC |
| Louisville | 112.1 | ACC |
| Miami FL | 111.0 | ACC |
| Notre Dame | 110.7 | ACC |
| Virginia Tech | 110.6 | ACC |
| North Carolina St. | 108.3 | ACC |
| Syracuse | 108.3 | ACC |
| Boston College | 106.3 | ACC |
| Wake Forest | 105.6 | ACC |
| Georgia Tech | 102.5 | ACC |
| Pittsburgh | 95.1 | ACC |
| Kansas | 116.0 | B12 |
| Texas Tech | 116.0 | B12 |
| West Virginia | 115.6 | B12 |
| TCU | 112.4 | B12 |
| Oklahoma | 112.2 | B12 |
| Baylor | 111.4 | B12 |
| Texas | 110.0 | B12 |
| Kansas St. | 109.1 | B12 |
| Oklahoma St. | 107.6 | B12 |
| Iowa St. | 105.1 | B12 |
| Villanova | 120.5 | BIGE |
| Creighton | 113.4 | BIGE |
| Xavier | 113.0 | BIGE |
| Butler | 112.0 | BIGE |
| Seton Hall | 111.3 | BIGE |
| Marquette | 108.9 | BIGE |
| Providence | 107.5 | BIGE |
| St. John’s | 107.1 | BIGE |
| Georgetown | 104.9 | BIGE |
| DePaul | 103.4 | BIGE |
| Purdue | 119.9 | BTEN |
| Michigan St. | 119.4 | BTEN |
| Ohio St. | 113.4 | BTEN |
| Michigan | 111.9 | BTEN |
| Penn St. | 111.5 | BTEN |
| Maryland | 110.7 | BTEN |
| Nebraska | 107.8 | BTEN |
| Indiana | 107.1 | BTEN |
| Northwestern | 107.0 | BTEN |
| Wisconsin | 105.9 | BTEN |
| Iowa | 105.0 | BTEN |
| Minnesota | 104.8 | BTEN |
| Illinois | 104.1 | BTEN |
| Rutgers | 101.6 | BTEN |
| Nevada | 112.5 | MWC |
| Boise St. | 108.0 | MWC |
| San Diego St. | 106.8 | MWC |
| Fresno St. | 106.5 | MWC |
| UNLV | 106.4 | MWC |
| New Mexico | 102.1 | MWC |
| Wyoming | 101.9 | MWC |
| Utah St. | 100.9 | MWC |
| Colorado St. | 96.1 | MWC |
| Air Force | 93.7 | MWC |
| San Jose St. | 90.3 | MWC |
| Arizona | 112.8 | PAC12 |
| Arizona St. | 110.8 | PAC12 |
| USC | 109.2 | PAC12 |
| UCLA | 108.7 | PAC12 |
| Oregon | 107.8 | PAC12 |
| Utah | 107.7 | PAC12 |
| Stanford | 104.2 | PAC12 |
| Oregon St. | 103.2 | PAC12 |
| Washington | 103.1 | PAC12 |
| Colorado | 102.9 | PAC12 |
| Washington St. | 97.2 | PAC12 |
| California | 94.8 | PAC12 |
| Auburn | 115.2 | SEC |
| Tennessee | 114.1 | SEC |
| Texas A&M | 112.4 | SEC |
| Florida | 111.8 | SEC |
| Kentucky | 111.3 | SEC |
| Arkansas | 111.1 | SEC |
| Missouri | 110.7 | SEC |
| Alabama | 110.4 | SEC |
| Mississippi St. | 107.8 | SEC |
| LSU | 107.6 | SEC |
| Georgia | 106.2 | SEC |
| Vanderbilt | 105.6 | SEC |
| South Carolina | 105.3 | SEC |
| Mississippi | 104.5 | SEC |
| Gonzaga | 116.0 | WCC |
| Saint Mary’s | 112.0 | WCC |
| BYU | 106.9 | WCC |
| San Diego | 100.5 | WCC |
| San Francisco | 100.0 | WCC |
| Pacific | 99.4 | WCC |
| Loyola Marymount | 94.2 | WCC |
| Portland | 92.9 | WCC |
| Santa Clara | 92.4 | WCC |
| Pepperdine | 90.3 | WCC |
Top Mid-Major and Low-Major Teams
| Rhode Island | 111.5 | A10 |
| Middle Tennessee | 108.2 | CUSA |
| Western Kentucky | 106.7 | CUSA |
| Loyola Chicago | 107.4 | MVC |
| Murray St. | 106.4 | OVC |
| Louisiana Lafayette | 108.3 | SB |
| South Dakota | 106.8 | Sum |
| New Mexico St. | 108.4 | WAC |
Great TV Watching Options This Weekend
Once again, another great schedule of games allows college basketball fans some excellent viewing options. Beginning tonight (Friday) at 7:00 PM Eastern Time, St. Bonaventure hosts Rhode Island. The game will air on ESPN2. The Bonnies (9-4/19-6) are tied for second place in the Atlantic 10 still have a remote chance to receive an at-large bid, and any chance would necessitate a win over URI.
Saturday’s great slate of games begins at 12 Noon Eastern Time. Oklahoma hosts Texas on ESPN; Butler hosts Providence on Fox; and Miami hosts Syracuse on CBS.
At 4 PM EST, one of the best games of the day could be Arkansas hosting Texas A&M on ESPN. At 4:30 PM EST, the Big East regular season title could be decided when Xavier hosts Villanova on Fox. The winner should remain a number one seed on Monday.
At 6 PM EST, Kansas hosts West Virginia on ESPN. The loser of this game will probably be eliminated from the Big 12 regular season race, while the winner will become Texas Tech’s key rival.
At 7 PM EST, Florida Gulf Coast hosts Lipscomb on ESPN3. FGCU has already clinched the top seed in the Atlantic Sun, while Lipscomb is currently number two. The significance here is that FGCU will host the A-Sun Tournament, so it will be interesting to see if the second best team in the league can compete with them on the same floor.
At 7:30 PM EST on ESPNU, Baylor hosts Texas Tech. TTU has a chance to gain a game on one of the two nearest contenders (KU-WVU), but if the Red Raiders lose, then they will lose a game to the winner of that other game. Baylor is actually the hottest team in the Big 12, and a win here would give the Bears a great upward move in the Bubble.
At 8:15 PM EST, Louisville host North Carolina on ESPN. The winner has a chance to move up to number two in the ACC by the end of the weekend, while the loser could fall down in the standings as far as ninth place.
At 10:15 PM EST on ESPN, UCLA hosts Oregon. Both teams are currently Bubble teams, so the winner will start the new week in good shape, while the loser will be facing some must win games.
Sunday presents additional excellent viewing options. It starts at 1 PM EST, with two excellent Power Conference games. Rivals Michigan and Ohio State square off in Ann Arbor in a game televised by CBS. At the same time, Clemson hosts Duke on the ACC Network.
At 2 PM EST on ESPN3, it might not sound like a big game, but the Vermont-Hartford game in Burlington might be one to consider watching. UVA is 12-0 in the America East Conference and will most likely host the conference tournament. Hartford is one of three teams with enough talent to pull off an upset.
The top game of the day tips off at 4 PM EST, when Cincinnati hosts Wichita State. This will be a battle of two aggressive, defense-dominant teams. Cinti fell at Houston Thursday night, while the Shockers had to come from behind to beat Temple. Seeding will be on the line in this one.
Finally, at 8 PM EST on the Big Ten Network, Penn State visits Purdue. The Nittany Lions roared big time in a Thursday night blowout against Ohio State. If Penn State pulls off the upset Sunday, that will give them two Quadrant 1 wins in a row, and that will certainly place Penn State in the heat of the discussion. Purdue must win this game to remain in contention for a number one seed.
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Note–We add one Friday night game to Include Rhode Island in our coverage.
| Friday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| Rhode Island | Davidson | 6.1 |
| Saturday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| South Florida | Temple | -12.5 |
| Wichita St. | Connecticut | 18.6 |
| North Carolina St. | North Carolina | -4.7 |
| Boston College | Miami (Fla.) | -2.6 |
| Notre Dame | Florida St. | 1.5 |
| Virginia | Virginia Tech | 12.4 |
| West Virginia | Oklahoma St. | 11.8 |
| Baylor | Kansas | -2.6 |
| Iowa St. | Oklahoma | -4.6 |
| TCU | Texas | 5.5 |
| Kansas St. | Texas Tech | -2.5 |
| Villanova | Butler | 12.5 |
| St. John’s | Marquette | 1.0 |
| Creighton | Xavier | 1.8 |
| Georgetown | Seton Hall | -4.6 |
| Providence | DePaul | 8.9 |
| Maryland | Northwestern | 6.6 |
| Michigan St. | Purdue | 1.6 |
| Nebraska | Rutgers | 9.9 |
| Ohio St. | Iowa | 12.3 |
| Air Force | New Mexico | -6.4 |
| Colorado St. | San Jose St. | 8.9 |
| Nevada | San Diego St. | 7.6 |
| UNLV | Wyoming | 7.8 |
| Utah St. | Boise St. | -4.3 |
| Arizona St. | UCLA | 5.9 |
| Utah | California | 14.4 |
| Oregon St. | Washington | 0.3 |
| Arizona | USC | 6.6 |
| South Carolina | Florida | -1.7 |
| Missouri | Mississippi St. | 5.9 |
| Georgia | Auburn | -6.2 |
| LSU | Ole Miss | 4.6 |
| Alabama | Tennessee | -2.6 |
| Texas A&M | Kentucky | 3.6 |
| Arkansas | Vanderbilt | 8.4 |
| BYU | San Francisco | 12.0 |
| Santa Clara | San Diego | -7.0 |
| Loyola Marymount | Pepperdine | 7.2 |
| Saint Mary’s | Gonzaga | 3.4 |
| Pacific | Portland | 9.4 |
| Middle Tennessee | North Texas | 14.3 |
| New Mexico St. | Grand Canyon | 8.6 |
| Sunday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| SMU | Cincinnati | -5.3 |
| Memphis | Central Florida | -0.9 |
| Houston | Tulane | 13.8 |
| Pittsburgh | Louisville | -12.0 |
| Syracuse | Wake Forest | 6.8 |
| Georgia Tech | Duke | -13.5 |
| Wisconsin | Michigan | -2.6 |
| Illinois | Penn St. | -1.3 |
| Colorado | Stanford | 1.7 |
| Oregon | Washington St. | 13.1 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Conf. |
| 1 | Villanova | 121.4 | BIGE |
| 2 | Purdue | 120.3 | BTEN |
| 3 | Virginia | 119.9 | ACC |
| 4 | Duke | 119.4 | ACC |
| 5 | Michigan St. | 118.4 | BTEN |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 117.8 | AAC |
| 7 | Kansas | 116.7 | B12 |
| 8 | West Virginia | 115.8 | B12 |
| 9 | North Carolina | 115.7 | ACC |
| 10 | Auburn | 115.6 | SEC |
| 11 | Tennessee | 115.2 | SEC |
| 12 | Xavier | 115.1 | BIGE |
| 13 | Texas Tech | 115.1 | B12 |
| 14 | Gonzaga | 114.9 | WCC |
| 15 | Saint Mary’s | 114.8 | WCC |
| 16 | Wichita St. | 114.6 | AAC |
| 17 | Ohio St. | 113.9 | BTEN |
| 18 | Creighton | 113.4 | BIGE |
| 19 | Clemson | 113.2 | ACC |
| 20 | Florida St. | 112.7 | ACC |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 112.6 | B12 |
| 22 | TCU | 112.5 | B12 |
| 23 | Butler | 112.4 | BIGE |
| 24 | Arizona | 112.4 | PAC12 |
| 25 | Nevada | 111.6 | MWC |
This week, we add three highly-ranked Mid-Major teams that are good enough to receive at-large bids if they fail to win their conference’s automatic bids. In most likelihood, these three teams would need to at least make the semifinals of their conference tournament.
| Team | PiRate | Conf. |
| Rhode Island | 111.1 | A-10 |
| New Mexico St. | 109.0 | WAC |
| Middle Tennessee | 108.8 | CUSA |
PiRate Ratings By Power Conferences
| Team | PiRate | Conf. |
| Cincinnati | 117.8 | AAC |
| Wichita St. | 114.6 | AAC |
| Houston | 110.6 | AAC |
| SMU | 109.0 | AAC |
| Temple | 105.4 | AAC |
| UCF | 103.6 | AAC |
| Tulsa | 102.4 | AAC |
| Tulane | 100.3 | AAC |
| Connecticut | 99.5 | AAC |
| Memphis | 99.2 | AAC |
| East Carolina | 91.1 | AAC |
| South Florida | 89.9 | AAC |
| Virginia | 119.9 | ACC |
| Duke | 119.4 | ACC |
| North Carolina | 115.7 | ACC |
| Clemson | 113.2 | ACC |
| Florida St. | 112.7 | ACC |
| Miami FL | 111.6 | ACC |
| Louisville | 111.4 | ACC |
| Virginia Tech | 110.5 | ACC |
| Notre Dame | 110.2 | ACC |
| Syracuse | 108.6 | ACC |
| North Carolina St. | 108.0 | ACC |
| Boston College | 105.5 | ACC |
| Wake Forest | 105.3 | ACC |
| Georgia Tech | 102.9 | ACC |
| Pittsburgh | 96.4 | ACC |
| Kansas | 116.7 | B12 |
| West Virginia | 115.8 | B12 |
| Texas Tech | 115.1 | B12 |
| Oklahoma | 112.6 | B12 |
| TCU | 112.5 | B12 |
| Baylor | 110.6 | B12 |
| Texas | 110.5 | B12 |
| Kansas St. | 109.1 | B12 |
| Oklahoma St. | 107.5 | B12 |
| Iowa St. | 104.5 | B12 |
| Villanova | 121.4 | BIGE |
| Xavier | 115.1 | BIGE |
| Creighton | 113.4 | BIGE |
| Butler | 112.4 | BIGE |
| Seton Hall | 111.5 | BIGE |
| Marquette | 109.2 | BIGE |
| Providence | 107.9 | BIGE |
| St. John’s | 106.7 | BIGE |
| Georgetown | 103.9 | BIGE |
| DePaul | 102.5 | BIGE |
| Purdue | 120.3 | BTEN |
| Michigan St. | 118.4 | BTEN |
| Ohio St. | 113.9 | BTEN |
| Michigan | 111.6 | BTEN |
| Maryland | 110.4 | BTEN |
| Penn St. | 109.9 | BTEN |
| Northwestern | 107.8 | BTEN |
| Nebraska | 107.6 | BTEN |
| Indiana | 106.1 | BTEN |
| Minnesota | 106.1 | BTEN |
| Wisconsin | 105.5 | BTEN |
| Illinois | 105.1 | BTEN |
| Iowa | 105.1 | BTEN |
| Rutgers | 101.2 | BTEN |
| Nevada | 111.6 | MWC |
| Boise St. | 108.6 | MWC |
| San Diego St. | 107.5 | MWC |
| UNLV | 106.4 | MWC |
| Fresno St. | 106.1 | MWC |
| New Mexico | 102.2 | MWC |
| Wyoming | 102.1 | MWC |
| Utah St. | 100.8 | MWC |
| Colorado St. | 96.0 | MWC |
| Air Force | 92.8 | MWC |
| San Jose St. | 90.6 | MWC |
| Arizona | 112.4 | PAC12 |
| Arizona St. | 111.0 | PAC12 |
| USC | 109.3 | PAC12 |
| UCLA | 108.6 | PAC12 |
| Oregon | 107.1 | PAC12 |
| Utah | 106.5 | PAC12 |
| Washington | 104.8 | PAC12 |
| Stanford | 104.6 | PAC12 |
| Colorado | 102.8 | PAC12 |
| Oregon St. | 102.1 | PAC12 |
| Washington St. | 97.5 | PAC12 |
| California | 95.6 | PAC12 |
| Auburn | 115.6 | SEC |
| Tennessee | 115.2 | SEC |
| Texas A&M | 111.6 | SEC |
| Kentucky | 111.5 | SEC |
| Florida | 110.9 | SEC |
| Missouri | 110.5 | SEC |
| Arkansas | 110.3 | SEC |
| Alabama | 109.1 | SEC |
| Mississippi St. | 108.1 | SEC |
| LSU | 106.7 | SEC |
| Georgia | 106.4 | SEC |
| South Carolina | 105.7 | SEC |
| Vanderbilt | 105.4 | SEC |
| Mississippi | 105.1 | SEC |
| Gonzaga | 114.9 | WCC |
| Saint Mary’s | 114.8 | WCC |
| BYU | 107.8 | WCC |
| San Diego | 101.9 | WCC |
| Pacific | 99.6 | WCC |
| San Francisco | 99.3 | WCC |
| Portland | 93.2 | WCC |
| Loyola Marymount | 93.1 | WCC |
| Santa Clara | 91.9 | WCC |
| Pepperdine | 88.9 | WCC |
Conference Tournaments Less Than 3 Weeks Away
It seems to have crept up on us this year. In our environs, it has been a much colder and much wetter winter, the type that makes you feel it will last for a year. So, it surprised us this morning when one of our followers asked us when we would post the conference tournament schedules like we do every year.
We will get to work on that this week and hopefully will have this in next Friday’s report or in a separate one midweek.
For now, here is a list of the conference tournaments with the dates. The first action begins in just 17 days.
| 2018 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS | ||
| LEAGUE | DATE | LOCATION |
| Atlantic Sun | Feb. 26-Mar. 4 | Higher Seed |
| Big South | Feb. 27, Mar. 1-4 | Higher Seed |
| Patriot | Feb. 27, Mar. 1, 4, & 7 | Higher Seed |
| Big Ten | Feb. 28-Mar. 4 | New York City |
| Ohio Valley | Feb. 28, Mar. 1-3 | San Antonio |
| Northeast | Feb. 28, March 3 & 6 | Higher Seed |
| Missouri Valley | Mar. 1-4 | St. Louis |
| Metro Atlantic | Mar. 1-5 | Albany, NY |
| Southern | Mar. 1-5 | Asheville, NC |
| West Coast | Mar. 1-6 | Las Vegas |
| Ivy | Mar. 10-11 | Philadelphia |
| Big West | Mar. 12-14 | Anaheim |
| Horizon | Mar. 2-6 | Detroit |
| Colonial Athletic | Mar. 3-6 | N. Charleson, SC |
| Summit | Mar. 3-6 | Sioux Falls, SD |
| America East | Mar. 3, 6 & 10 | Higher Seed |
| Mideastern Athletic | Mar. 5-10 | Norfolk, VA |
| Mid-American | Mar. 5, 7-10 | Higher Seed/Cleveland |
| Atlantic Coast | Mar. 6-10 | Brooklyn |
| Big Sky | Mar. 6, 8-10 | Reno, NV |
| Southwestern Athletic | Mar. 6, 9-10 | Houston |
| Big East | Mar. 7-10 | New York City |
| Big 12 | Mar. 7-10 | Kansas City |
| Conference USA | Mar. 7-10 | Frisco, TX |
| Mountain West | Mar. 7-10 | Las Vegas |
| Pac-12 | Mar. 7-10 | Las Vegas |
| Western Athletic | Mar. 7-10 | Las Vegas |
| Atlantic 10 | Mar. 7-11 | Washington, DC |
| Southeastern | Mar. 7-11 | St. Louis |
| Southland | Mar. 7-11 | Katy, TX |
| Sun Belt | Mar. 7-11 | New Orleans |
| American Athletic | Mar. 8-11 | Orlando |
| Seed | Team | Conf. |
| 1 | Villanova | BE |
| 1 | Virginia | ACC |
| 1 | Purdue | BTen |
| 1 | Xavier | BE |
| 2 | Auburn | SEC |
| 2 | Kansas | B12 |
| 2 | Duke | ACC |
| 2 | Clemson | ACC |
| 3 | Michigan St. | BTen |
| 3 | Texas Tech | B12 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | AAC |
| 3 | Tennessee | SEC |
| 4 | Oklahoma | B12 |
| 4 | North Carolina | ACC |
| 4 | Arizona | P12 |
| 4 | Kentucky | SEC |
| 5 | Ohio St. | BTen |
| 5 | West Virginia | B12 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | A10 |
| 5 | Seton Hall | BE |
| 6 | Gonzaga | WCC |
| 6 | Saint Mary’s | WCC |
| 6 | Miami (Fla.) | ACC |
| 6 | Creighton | BE |
| 7 | Wichita St. | AAC |
| 7 | Butler | BE |
| 7 | Florida St. | ACC |
| 7 | Nevada | MWC |
| 8 | Florida | SEC |
| 8 | Texas | B12 |
| 8 | Michigan | BTen |
| 8 | Alabama | SEC |
| 9 | TCU | B12 |
| 9 | Arizona St. | P12 |
| 9 | Louisville | ACC |
| 9 | Texas A&M | SEC |
| 10 | Missouri | SEC |
| 10 | Washington | P12 |
| 10 | Providence | BE |
| 10 | USC | P12 |
| 11 | Houston | AAC |
| 11 | Arkansas | SEC |
| 11 | Middle Tennessee | CUSA |
| 11 | New Mexico St. | WAC |
| 12 | N. C. St. | ACC |
| 12 | Virginia Tech | ACC |
| 12 | Boise St. | MWC |
| 12 | Kansas St. | B12 |
| 12 | Buffalo | MAC |
| 12 | Loyola (Chi.) | MVC |
| 13 | UL-Lafayette | SBC |
| 13 | Vermont | AE |
| 13 | East Tennessee St. | Sou |
| 13 | South Dakota St. | Sum |
| 14 | Belmont | OVC |
| 14 | Montana | BSky |
| 14 | Northern Kentucky | Hor |
| 14 | Charleston | CAA |
| 15 | UCSB | BWest |
| 15 | Rider | MAAC |
| 15 | Bucknell | Pat |
| 15 | Fla. Gulf Coast | ASun |
| 16 | Wagner | NEC |
| 16 | Penn | Ivy |
| 16 | Nicholls St. | SLC |
| 16 | UNC-Asheville | BSth |
| 16 | N.C. A&T | MEAC |
| 16 | Ark.-Pine Bluff | SWAC |
Bubble Teams on the Outside, Looking In
| 69 | UCLA | P12 |
| 70 | Temple | AAC |
| 71 | SMU | AAC |
| 72 | LSU | SEC |
| 73 | Western Kentucky | CUSA |
| 74 | Syracuse | ACC |
| 75 | St. Bonaventure | A10 |
| 76 | Georgia | SEC |
| 77 | Marquette | BE |
| 78 | Mississippi State | SEC |
| 79 | Maryland | BTen |
| 80 | Utah | P12 |
| 81 | South Carolina | SEC |
| 82 | Oklahoma State | B12 |
| 83 | Nebraska | BTen |
Last Four In–Headed To Dayton
North Carolina St. vs. Kansas St.
Virginia Tech vs. Boise St.
Last Four Byes
Arkansas
Houston
USC
Providence
This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
For Multi-Bid Leagues
| Saturday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| Connecticut | Cincinnati | -13.7 |
| Central Florida | Houston | -3.0 |
| East Carolina | Memphis | -6.4 |
| St. John’s | Duke | -11.4 |
| North Carolina St. | Notre Dame | 0.6 |
| Wake Forest | Clemson | -4.1 |
| Virginia Tech | Miami (Fla.) | 3.1 |
| Syracuse | Virginia | -6.7 |
| Louisville | Florida St. | 3.3 |
| North Carolina | Pittsburgh | 21.9 |
| Kansas | Oklahoma St. | 13.8 |
| TCU | Texas Tech | 1.7 |
| West Virginia | Kansas St. | 8.4 |
| Texas | Oklahoma | 1.2 |
| Baylor | Iowa St. | 8.6 |
| Butler | DePaul | 12.9 |
| Marquette | Providence | 4.9 |
| Xavier | Georgetown | 15.4 |
| Michigan | Minnesota | 9.7 |
| Rutgers | Purdue | -16.9 |
| Penn St. | Iowa | 6.7 |
| Indiana | Michigan St. | -10.2 |
| Wyoming | Fresno St. | 1.6 |
| San Jose St. | New Mexico | -9.0 |
| Boise St. | UNLV | 6.3 |
| Colorado St. | Nevada | -13.3 |
| San Diego St. | Air Force | 18.2 |
| Stanford | Oregon | -0.5 |
| UCLA | USC | 1.4 |
| California | Oregon St. | -4.2 |
| Washington | Arizona | -5.8 |
| Missouri | Kentucky | 1.6 |
| Texas A&M | South Carolina | 8.3 |
| LSU | Arkansas | 0.2 |
| Florida | Alabama | 7.6 |
| Tennessee | Ole Miss | 12.1 |
| Mississippi St. | Georgia | 2.8 |
| Auburn | Vanderbilt | 12.8 |
| Portland | Loyola Marymount | 1.1 |
| San Diego | Saint Mary’s | -8.3 |
| Gonzaga | BYU | 12.1 |
| Pepperdine | Pacific | -6.1 |
| Santa Clara | San Francisco | -4.1 |
| Sunday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| South Florida | Tulsa | -9.8 |
| Tulane | Temple | -2.1 |
| Boston College | Georgia Tech | 5.7 |
| Villanova | Seton Hall | 14.0 |
| Ohio St. | Illinois | 11.7 |
| Maryland | Wisconsin | 9.7 |
| Washington St. | Arizona St. | -9.5 |
Note: As of last night’s games, with both Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky winning big road contests, Conference USA actually moved into multi-bid league status. We apologize for not including CUSA games in this week’s preview, but if both MTSU and WKU win this weekend and mid-week, then CUSA will be included in next Friday’s preview.
Additionally, Boise State fell from at-large status into one of the First Four out, so the Mountain West Conference should not be included as a multiple bid league. The update occurred after this week’s games had been rated and placed in our database. If the MWC is still just a one for sure bid league next Friday, we will remove it from our preview, thus trading CUSA for MWC. If neither or both leagues remain in the multiple bid leagues, we will cancel both or include both in next Friday’s preview, depending on the outcomes through next Thursday night.
The PiRate Ratings Top 25
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Conf. |
| 1 | Villanova | 122.2 | BIGE |
| 2 | Purdue | 121.4 | BTEN |
| 3 | Duke | 120.2 | ACC |
| 4 | Virginia | 119.2 | ACC |
| 5 | Michigan St. | 118.9 | BTEN |
| 6 | Kansas | 117.5 | B12 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 117.4 | AAC |
| 8 | Gonzaga | 116.0 | WCC |
| 9 | Xavier | 115.2 | BIGE |
| 10 | North Carolina | 115.1 | ACC |
| 11 | Auburn | 114.9 | SEC |
| 12 | Tennessee | 114.8 | SEC |
| 13 | West Virginia | 114.4 | B12 |
| 14 | Texas Tech | 114.4 | B12 |
| 15 | Wichita St. | 114.2 | AAC |
| 16 | Creighton | 113.5 | BIGE |
| 17 | Ohio St. | 113.4 | BTEN |
| 18 | Arizona | 113.1 | PAC12 |
| 19 | TCU | 113.1 | B12 |
| 20 | Saint Mary’s | 112.9 | WCC |
| 21 | Oklahoma | 112.9 | B12 |
| 22 | Clemson | 112.8 | ACC |
| 23 | Nevada | 112.4 | MWC |
| 24 | Butler | 112.4 | BIGE |
| 25 | Florida St. | 112.4 | ACC |
PiRate Ratings By Power Conference
| Team | PiRate | Conf. |
| Cincinnati | 117.4 | AAC |
| Wichita St. | 114.2 | AAC |
| Houston | 110.3 | AAC |
| SMU | 109.4 | AAC |
| Temple | 105.3 | AAC |
| UCF | 104.3 | AAC |
| Tulsa | 102.3 | AAC |
| Tulane | 100.2 | AAC |
| Memphis | 100.0 | AAC |
| Connecticut | 99.7 | AAC |
| East Carolina | 90.6 | AAC |
| South Florida | 89.5 | AAC |
| Duke | 120.2 | ACC |
| Virginia | 119.2 | ACC |
| North Carolina | 115.1 | ACC |
| Clemson | 112.8 | ACC |
| Florida St. | 112.4 | ACC |
| Louisville | 111.7 | ACC |
| Miami FL | 111.4 | ACC |
| Virginia Tech | 111.0 | ACC |
| Notre Dame | 110.8 | ACC |
| Syracuse | 108.5 | ACC |
| North Carolina St. | 107.4 | ACC |
| Boston College | 105.5 | ACC |
| Wake Forest | 105.2 | ACC |
| Georgia Tech | 103.3 | ACC |
| Pittsburgh | 96.7 | ACC |
| Kansas | 117.5 | B12 |
| West Virginia | 114.4 | B12 |
| Texas Tech | 114.4 | B12 |
| TCU | 113.1 | B12 |
| Oklahoma | 112.9 | B12 |
| Texas | 110.6 | B12 |
| Kansas St. | 110.0 | B12 |
| Baylor | 109.9 | B12 |
| Oklahoma St. | 107.2 | B12 |
| Iowa St. | 104.8 | B12 |
| Villanova | 122.2 | BIGE |
| Xavier | 115.2 | BIGE |
| Creighton | 113.5 | BIGE |
| Butler | 112.4 | BIGE |
| Seton Hall | 111.7 | BIGE |
| Marquette | 109.1 | BIGE |
| Providence | 107.7 | BIGE |
| St. John’s | 105.3 | BIGE |
| Georgetown | 103.3 | BIGE |
| DePaul | 102.5 | BIGE |
| Purdue | 121.4 | BTEN |
| Michigan St. | 118.9 | BTEN |
| Ohio St. | 113.4 | BTEN |
| Michigan | 112.2 | BTEN |
| Maryland | 110.7 | BTEN |
| Penn St. | 109.1 | BTEN |
| Nebraska | 107.3 | BTEN |
| Northwestern | 107.2 | BTEN |
| Minnesota | 106.0 | BTEN |
| Iowa | 105.4 | BTEN |
| Illinois | 105.2 | BTEN |
| Indiana | 105.2 | BTEN |
| Wisconsin | 105.0 | BTEN |
| Rutgers | 101.5 | BTEN |
| Nevada | 112.4 | MWC |
| Boise St. | 108.9 | MWC |
| San Diego St. | 107.8 | MWC |
| UNLV | 105.6 | MWC |
| Fresno St. | 104.8 | MWC |
| New Mexico | 102.4 | MWC |
| Wyoming | 102.4 | MWC |
| Utah St. | 101.3 | MWC |
| Colorado St. | 96.1 | MWC |
| Air Force | 93.1 | MWC |
| San Jose St. | 90.4 | MWC |
| Arizona | 113.1 | PAC12 |
| Arizona St. | 111.1 | PAC12 |
| USC | 109.7 | PAC12 |
| UCLA | 108.1 | PAC12 |
| Oregon | 107.6 | PAC12 |
| Utah | 106.9 | PAC12 |
| Washington | 103.8 | PAC12 |
| Stanford | 103.6 | PAC12 |
| Colorado | 102.7 | PAC12 |
| Oregon St. | 102.7 | PAC12 |
| Washington St. | 98.6 | PAC12 |
| California | 95.0 | PAC12 |
| Auburn | 114.9 | SEC |
| Tennessee | 114.8 | SEC |
| Florida | 112.3 | SEC |
| Kentucky | 112.0 | SEC |
| Texas A&M | 111.3 | SEC |
| Arkansas | 110.3 | SEC |
| Missouri | 110.1 | SEC |
| Alabama | 108.2 | SEC |
| Georgia | 107.2 | SEC |
| Mississippi St. | 107.0 | SEC |
| LSU | 107.0 | SEC |
| South Carolina | 106.5 | SEC |
| Mississippi | 106.2 | SEC |
| Vanderbilt | 105.6 | SEC |
| Gonzaga | 116.0 | WCC |
| Saint Mary’s | 112.9 | WCC |
| BYU | 107.4 | WCC |
| San Diego | 101.6 | WCC |
| San Francisco | 99.5 | WCC |
| Pacific | 98.9 | WCC |
| Loyola Marymount | 94.7 | WCC |
| Portland | 92.8 | WCC |
| Santa Clara | 92.4 | WCC |
| Pepperdine | 89.8 | WCC |
The PiRates Are Adjusting How We Look For Buried Treasure
The PiRate Ratings began and operated for years as a college and pro football prediction establishment. The ratings themselves began in October of 1969 and have operated continuously since. In 1978-79, basketball ratings were added, and from 1980-2009, the PiRates did some horse racing prognosticating. In all this time, however, it was an added filler that actually became our most patronized product we have publicly issued, be it in print or radio.
Our March Madness Bracket Picking guides have annually dwarfed all others, be it in the number of readers to this site, the number of responses from our historic newspaper presence, or the number of responses to our historic radio presence (and in one case to our sponsor, when one team’s fans threatened to boycott the adult beverage because our leader picked their rival to win the rivalry game).
We back-tested all the past Final Four and National Champions for the years where we had statistical data to identify the fingerprint statistics that might help us forecast future Final Four and National Championship teams. We identified some consistent stats and discovered that some stats had little or no bearing.
For instance, we discovered that for most years, teams that scored a very high percentage of their points at the foul line tended to lose with more frequency as the rounds progressed. We surmised that a lesser number of fouls were called in the bigger games, and the teams that got this far that were not great foul shooting teams got to where they were because they were dominant in other areas. It just so happened that these other areas were the consistent ones that produced the champions.
We wanted to come up with a statistic that could be used to represent what has helped teams dominate in NCAA Tournament play. We began refining this data over the years.
When our captain became a baseball metric specialist and started researching advanced analytics, he learned what many others had already learned. What may work to determine the regular season division winners may not work in the playoffs. Oakland Athletics’ General Manager Billy Beane was quoted as saying (expletive altered), “My stuff doesn’t work in the playoffs.”
Beane was onto something, or in other words, it was plain to see that Oakland’s “Moneyball” ways produced 100-wins in the regular season, but it did not work in the playoffs, since the Athletics never won the pennant. Forget for a minute that his predecessor Sandy Alderson actually began the advanced statistical age in Oakland, and he won three consecutive AL Pennants using a computer program to help determine some strategies. Let’s look at why Moneyball issues do not work in the playoffs.
What does this have to do with March Madness, you may ask? Plenty, we respond. In basketball, the Four Factors have come to represent some of the best statistical analysis that can reveal the superior teams over the inferior teams. During the regular season, these stats may show that State U is a top 25 team and should be no worse than a 5-seed in the Big Dance. Then, this team gets a 4 or 5-seed in the tournament and goes up against a 12 or 13-seed that dominated a mid-major conference during the regular season. This underdog possesses some of the dominating stats that work in the tournament, while the big team from the big conference does not. And, lo and behold, the underdog upsets the favorite, making the sports media talk about how so many 12-seeds beat 5-seeds, like it is a curse.
Never once did these media experts consider that the reason the 12-seeds beat the 5-seeds much more often than normal is because these 12-seeds would beat these 5-seeds 7 times out of 10. In other words, they are not really upsets. They are indicators that the people that set the seeds are doing a poor job.
So, by now, you must be anxious to see what these special stats are that help us determine what works in the playoffs. The answer is: The PiRate R+T Rating.
Huh? What is the R+T Rating? If you have followed our site for a long enough time, you have seen the R+T used since the 2000 NCAA Tournament. It has been refined through the years, sort of like how weighted on-base average goes through refinements based on each season’s environments.
At the present time, our R+T rating is:
(R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T
R = Rebounding Margin per game
S = Average Steals per game
T= Turnover Margin per game
This formula translates into the number of extra scoring opportunities a team should be expected to gain over an average team. It took hours of backtesting to refine it to the point where the result represented a real number that estimated the number of “cheap” points a team might be expected to receive over an average team.
It looks simple enough. If one team has a large rebounding edge in a game, they will benefit with an extra number of shots. Depending on whether the advantage is at the offensive or defensive end, or both, limiting shots to one per possession and getting putbacks on the offensive end can create spurts in games that turn close contests into blowouts.
Turnover margin is not as important as rebounding margin except for when the turnover comes by way of a steal. If the opponent turns the ball over due to travelling or stepping out of bounds or committing a charge, the opponent does not immediately see a benefit. It ends the opponents’ possession, but it does not lead to fast break opportunities or the ability to tip the ball in the basket from a couple feet away.
When a team steals the ball, however, this is the absolute best extra possession. Most steals come when the defense gains possession of the ball while their players are facing their basket, and the team turning the ball over has their back to that basket. Almost all steals immediately present a number’s advantage for the team gaining possession. If it is 2 on 1 or 3 on 2, this is like having a 3-0 count as a batter with the bases loaded. Even if the steal results in a 2 on 2 or 3 on 3, the team with the ball has the advantage, since any even strength less than 5 on 5 favors the offense in basketball.
This is what the R+T represents. A steal and rebound counts more than a turnover or lack of a turnover, but the turnover has value too.
How do we interpret R+T? We have levels of interpretation.
If a team has an R+T rating of 20 or better, this is a potentially dangerous tournament team. In a tight, evenly matched game, a team with a 20+ R+T rating has a huge advantage over a team with an average R+T rating. At crunch time, a crucial steal or offensive rebound resulting in a basket can be the difference.
An R+T rating of 15-20 is a good rating, and a team with a rating in this range has Sweet 16 potential and maybe Elite 8 potential.
An R+T rating of 10-15 is average for an NCAA Tournament team. Unless this team is outstanding in other areas such as field goal percentage margin, they probably do not have the necessary talent to make it past the Sweet 16. There have been teams that made the Final Four with R+T ratings in this range, but most of the time, they got there because they played opponents with even weaker R+T ratings.
An R+T rating in the 5-10 range might win a game or even sneak into the Sweet 16, but they should not be expected to go any farther. It is unlikely that a team in this range will face three consecutive teams with even weaker R+T ratings.
An R+T rating in the 0-5 range does not have the goods to make it to the second weekend of the tournament. Favored teams in this range playing underdogs with double-digit R+T ratings are prime to be “upset.”
And, when you see a team with a negative R+T, treat this team like you would treat a race horse with “four white socks.”
There is an old poem about horses wearing white socks (hooves), as it was generally believed, rightly or wrongly, that white hooves were a sign of weakness in a horse. If we remember correctly it goes:
One white sock, keep him to the end.
Two white socks, give him to a friend.
Three white socks, send him far away.
Four white socks, keep him not a day.
A team with a negative R+T rating has four white socks. Pick them not a game. Teams with negative R+T ratings almost always lose in the Round of 64, even if they are a 2-seed playing a 15-seed. There was a year where three heavily favored teams from power conferences but with negative R+T ratings played three double-digit seeds from mid-major conferences but with good R+T ratings. All three heavily favored teams lost.
Do you remember in 2013 when Florida Gulf Coast made Andy Enfield famous for something more than his fantastic spouse, when his 15th-seeded Eagles clobbered second-seed Georgetown? FGCU had a fat R+T rating, while the Hoyas had a negative R+T rating.
Let’s look at this statistic in tabular form with several potential NCAA Tournament teams. These numbers represent only the stats from conference games for each team, thus eliminating games where a power conference team beat a low-major team by 35 points and padded their stats.
| Team | Reb. | Stl. | Opp Stl. | TO | R+T | Conf. |
| Alabama | -0.1 | 7.7 | 6.7 | -0.3 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Arizona | 6.1 | 4.8 | 5.7 | -0.2 | 14.7 | 5 |
| Auburn | -0.3 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 4.1 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 15.3 | 13 |
| Cincinnati | 9.1 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 25.8 | 7 |
| Clemson | -1.9 | 5.4 | 6.4 | -0.5 | -2.0 | 2 |
| Duke | 6.9 | 7.8 | 5.7 | -0.1 | 17.9 | 2 |
| East Tennessee | 7.7 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 0.2 | 19.4 | 17 |
| Florida | -3.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Florida St. | 3.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 10.2 | 2 |
| Gonzaga | 10.5 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 27.6 | 11 |
| Kansas | -5.2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 0.3 | -6.9 | 3 |
| Kansas St. | -8.0 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 3.0 | -8.9 | 3 |
| Kentucky | 2.0 | 5.7 | 5.1 | -1.7 | 6.1 | 1 |
| UL-Lafayette | 10.2 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 25.8 | 23 |
| Louisville | 1.6 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 8.0 | 2 |
| Loyola (Chi.) | 0.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 7.8 | 9 |
| Miami (Fla.) | 0.9 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Michigan | -0.5 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 6 |
| Michigan St. | 9.0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | -4.5 | 16.5 | 6 |
| Middle Tennessee | 10.0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | -0.9 | 21.7 | 14 |
| Montana | 4.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 19.6 | 20 |
| Nevada | -1.2 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 10 |
| New Mexico St. | 11.5 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 27.6 | 15 |
| North Carolina | 9.9 | 5.5 | 5.7 | -1.2 | 21.7 | 2 |
| North Carolina St. | 0.9 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Ohio St. | 6.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 6 |
| Oklahoma | 1.6 | 6.3 | 7.8 | -3.2 | 1.4 | 3 |
| Oregon | 1.8 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 8.9 | 5 |
| Purdue | 1.9 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 8.7 | 6 |
| Rhode Island | 1.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 12.1 | 8 |
| Saint Mary’s | 6.4 | 5.8 | 6.3 | -0.7 | 14.7 | 11 |
| South Dakota St. | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | -0.2 | 9.8 | 16 |
| USC | -1.4 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 5 |
| SMU | -0.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 7.6 | 7 |
| Tennessee | 1.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Texas Tech | 5.1 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 13.2 | 3 |
| UCLA | -0.1 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Villanova | -3.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 4 |
| Virginia | -2.9 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Virginia Tech | -6.4 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 1.4 | -8.0 | 2 |
| West Virginia | 2.8 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 11.4 | 3 |
| Wichita St. | 9.3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 21.8 | 7 |
There are a couple of extra things to add to this discussion before you receive your BS in R+Tology. Most of you by now have thought that it is a lot easier for New Mexico State to dominate in the WAC than it is for Kansas to dominate in the Big 12. Beating Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Texas Tech is a lot harder than beating Chicago State, Missouri-Kansas City, and Seattle. Definitely, the strength of the conference must be factored into this equation. In the last column above, you see a number under the heading of “conf.” This represents the rating of conferences by strength. As of today, the SEC is the toughest league in college basketball. The ACC is number two; the Big 12 is number three; and so on. The WAC is number 15. There are 31 Division One conferences, so 15 is about average, while the SEC and ACC are many points better than an average conference.
We do handicap these ratings when we do our March Madness picking. An ACC team with an R+T rating of 15 is better than a Colonial Athletic Association team with an R+T rating of 23. A SWAC team with an R+T rating of 7 is like a Big 12 team with a negative R+T rating.
One final adjustment. When looking at the components of the R+T ratings, notice whether a team’s components are all positive numbers. In other words, look to see if a team has positive rebounding margins, positive turnover margins (commit less than they force), averages more than 6 steals per game and who limits opponents steals to less than 6 per game. This is the sign of a complete team, and complete teams frequently beat teams with superior R+T ratings when the other team is not a complete team.
Let’s look at two examples from above.
Dan Hurley has done a great job at Rhode Island, and the Rams are a “complete team.” They have a positive rebounding margin. They average more than 6 steals per game and give up less than 6 steals per game, and they have a really nice turnover margin. Their R+T rating is 12.1, and the Atlantic 10 conference is rated #8. URI is definitely Sweet 16-worthy with these stats before we begin to look at other factors like shooting percentages and defensive shooting percentages.
Now, let’s look at Michigan State. The Spartans have a 16.5 R+T rating from the number 6 conference. However, Sparty averages only 3.5 steals per game and have a negative turnover margin of 4.5. This is a real warning sign for bracket-pickers. MSU will dominate on the boards in a matchup against Rhode Island, but the Rams will even up that advantage with a large turnover margins against the Spartans. If both teams shoot a similar percentage from inside and outside the 3-point line, you have a toss-up game.
Michigan State saw how this lack of being complete hurt them in the past. In the 2016 NCAA Tournament, the Spartans faced a Middle Tennessee State team that excelled in turnover margin and steals. The Blue Raiders basically were much quicker than Michigan State, and this is why their turnover margin was so excellent. They could pressure the ball and play in the passing lanes without giving up easy baskets. MTSU pulled off the upset thanks to turnover margin equalizing the rebounding margin of their opponent. The Blue Raiders’ quickness led to a lot of open shots, while Michigan State’s power game did not produce an equivalent number of open shots. MTSU took MSU out of its game plan and forced the tempo, turning this into a 70-possession game. Michigan State preferred a 60-64 possession game, and those extra 6-10 possessions per side helped the underdog team.
It is not always this cut and dried. Other factors have to be considered, and this is where the PiRate Ratings have made substantial changes starting this year. In past years, we did not give a lot of support to excellent three-point shooting teams, because we favored teams that could get shots from within 5 feet of the basket. During the last three or four years, the three-point shot has become much more important, essential if you will. The Golden State Warriors and other NBA teams now rely on advanced analytical data almost as much as Major League Baseball teams. Three-point shooting has been determined to be as vital as having the relief ace that can enter the World Series in the 6th inning and get six high-leverage outs. The PiRate Bracket-picking protocol has now incorporated true shooting percentages with R+T ratings and conference strength to refine our ratings.
The game has come down to whether a team can be expected to shoot a certain percentage from inside and outside the 3-point line and whether they can be expected to get extra scoring opportunities. A combination of these two basic factors will be how we handicap games in the future. Of course, we will handicap the two factors based on conference strength.
When you look at our spreads each week, you are looking at an algorithm that incorporates and handicaps due to conference strength, expected true shooting percentages and scoring opportunities
Our Bracket Gurus have spoken for the first time this year. Maybe, you should listen, because in 2017, the Gurus were 100% correct in picking the final 68 teams on Selection Sunday morning, something mighty impressive considering there were about a half-dozen teams competing for the last three spots in the field.
All 12 of last year’s March Gurus have returned, and because we thought we might fall one shy, we added a trio of new Gurus who have credibility with the PiRate Captain. So, in this report, the number of Gurus reporting is 15.
Let’s get to it. Here are the 68 teams seeded 1-16.
| Seed | Team | League |
| 1 | Villanova | BIGE |
| 1 | Purdue | BTEN |
| 1 | Virginia | ACC |
| 1 | Kansas | B12 |
| 2 | Duke | ACC |
| 2 | Xavier | BIGE |
| 2 | Auburn | SEC |
| 2 | Oklahoma | B12 |
| 3 | Clemson | ACC |
| 3 | Arizona | PAC12 |
| 3 | Michigan St. | BTEN |
| 3 | North Carolina | ACC |
| 4 | Texas Tech | B12 |
| 4 | Cincinnati | AAC |
| 4 | Tennessee | SEC |
| 4 | West Virginia | B12 |
| 5 | Kentucky | SEC |
| 5 | Florida | SEC |
| 5 | Ohio St. | BTEN |
| 5 | Seton Hall | BIGE |
| 6 | Wichita St. | AAC |
| 6 | Rhode Island | A-10 |
| 6 | Creighton | BIGE |
| 6 | Miami (Fla.) | ACC |
| 7 | Arizona St. | PAC12 |
| 7 | Louisville | ACC |
| 7 | Florida St. | ACC |
| 7 | Gonzaga | WCC |
| 8 | TCU | B12 |
| 8 | Arkansas | SEC |
| 8 | Saint Mary’s | WCC |
| 8 | Michigan | BTEN |
| 9 | Nevada | MWC |
| 9 | Alabama | SEC |
| 9 | Texas | B12 |
| 9 | Butler | BIGE |
| 10 | USC | PAC12 |
| 10 | Providence | BIGE |
| 10 | Kansas St. | B12 |
| 10 | Houston | AAC |
| 11 | Middle Tennessee | CUSA |
| 11 | New Mexico St. | WAC |
| 11 | Buffalo | MAC |
| 11 | Loyola (Chi.) | MVC |
| 12 | Texas A&M | SEC |
| 12 | Syracuse | ACC |
| 12 | Marquette | BIGE |
| 12 | North Carolina St. | ACC |
| 12 | Washington | PAC12 |
| 12 | Boise St. | MWC |
| 13 | UL-Lafayette | SBC |
| 13 | East Tennessee St. | SOCON |
| 13 | Vermont | AMEAST |
| 13 | South Dakota St. | Summit |
| 14 | Belmont | OVC |
| 14 | Wright St. | Horizon |
| 14 | William & Mary | CAA |
| 14 | Bucknell | Patriot |
| 15 | Montana | BSKY |
| 15 | UC-Davis | BWEST |
| 15 | Canisius | MAAC |
| 15 | Stephen F. Austin | SLC |
| 16 | Florida Gulf Coast | A-SUN |
| 16 | Penn | Ivy |
| 16 | Wagner | NEC |
| 16 | UNC-Asheville | BIGS |
| 16 | Bethune-Cookman | MEAC |
| 16 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | SWAC |
Here is the breakdown of Multiple Bid Leagues. There are 23, one-bid leagues in this first report, with the Mountain West Conference just barely sneaking in with two teams and Conference USA just barely missing out on getting a second team in this field.
AAC: 3
ACC: 9
Big 12: 7
Big East: 7
Big Ten: 4
Mountain West: 2
Pac-12: 4
SEC: 7
WCC: 2
The Bubble
The Last 4 Teams With a Bye
Kansas St.
Houston
Texas A&M
Syracuse
The Last 4 Teams In The Field (First Four Teams in Dayton)
Marquette vs. Boise St.
North Carolina St. vs. Washington
The Rest of the Bubble (in order of votes by the Gurus)
SMU
Western Kentucky
Virginia Tech
Missouri
South Carolina
LSU
UCLA
St. Bonaventure
Georgia
Utah
Notre Dame
Old Dominion
Maryland
Spreads For Major Conference Games This Weekend
| Saturday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| Memphis | Cincinnati | -13.8 |
| North Carolina | North Carolina St. | 12.2 |
| Duke | Virginia | 5.0 |
| Florida St. | Miami (Fla.) | 3.8 |
| Pittsburgh | Syracuse | -9.6 |
| Notre Dame | Virginia Tech | 4.8 |
| Louisville | Wake Forest | 9.8 |
| South Carolina | Texas Tech | -4.2 |
| Florida | Baylor | 5.4 |
| Texas | Ole Miss | 7.4 |
| Kansas St. | Georgia | 7.8 |
| Alabama | Oklahoma | -1.7 |
| Iowa St. | Tennessee | -5.2 |
| Vanderbilt | TCU | -4.9 |
| Kansas | Texas A&M | 10.0 |
| Arkansas | Oklahoma St. | 7.4 |
| West Virginia | Kentucky | 8.8 |
| Butler | St. John’s | 8.5 |
| Creighton | Georgetown | 14.5 |
| Penn St. | Rutgers | 9.0 |
| Nebraska | Iowa | 4.7 |
| San Jose St. | Wyoming | -9.7 |
| Fresno St. | Utah St. | 7.6 |
| New Mexico | Colorado St. | 9.4 |
| Air Force | Boise St. | -13.2 |
| UNLV | San Diego St. | 0.2 |
| Arizona | Utah | 10.2 |
| Arizona St. | Colorado | 12.1 |
| Oregon | Oregon St. | 7.9 |
| UCLA | Stanford | 7.5 |
| Auburn | LSU | 9.5 |
| Mississippi St. | Missouri | -1.0 |
| Loyola Marymount | San Diego | -3.9 |
| Pepperdine | Santa Clara | 1.4 |
| Gonzaga | San Francisco | 20.0 |
| BYU | Pacific | 12.7 |
| Saint Mary’s | Portland | 23.0 |
| Sunday’s Games | ||
| Home Team | Visitor | Spread |
| SMU | East Carolina | 22.6 |
| Houston | South Florida | 24.1 |
| Wichita St. | Tulsa | 16.1 |
| Temple | Connecticut | 7.1 |
| Georgia Tech | Clemson | -6.9 |
| Marquette | Villanova | -9.0 |
| DePaul | Seton Hall | -5.0 |
| Maryland | Michigan St. | -5.4 |
| Indiana | Purdue | -13.6 |
| USC | California | 17.9 |
| Washington | Washington St. | 6.4 |
The PiRate Ratings Top 25
| Rank | Team | PiRate | Conf. |
| 1 | Villanova | 122.2 | BIGE |
| 2 | Purdue | 121.7 | BTEN |
| 3 | Duke | 120.0 | ACC |
| 4 | Michigan St. | 119.3 | BTEN |
| 5 | Virginia | 119.0 | ACC |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 117.2 | AAC |
| 7 | Kansas | 117.0 | B12 |
| 8 | Gonzaga | 116.7 | WCC |
| 9 | West Virginia | 116.2 | B12 |
| 10 | North Carolina | 115.9 | ACC |
| 11 | Xavier | 115.4 | BIGE |
| 12 | Texas Tech | 114.5 | B12 |
| 13 | Wichita St. | 114.4 | AAC |
| 14 | Auburn | 114.0 | SEC |
| 15 | Creighton | 114.0 | BIGE |
| 16 | Oklahoma | 113.5 | B12 |
| 17 | Ohio St. | 113.4 | BTEN |
| 18 | Tennessee | 113.4 | SEC |
| 19 | TCU | 113.1 | B12 |
| 20 | Arizona | 112.9 | PAC12 |
| 21 | Clemson | 112.8 | ACC |
| 22 | Florida St. | 112.6 | ACC |
| 23 | Saint Mary’s | 112.5 | WCC |
| 24 | Nevada | 112.3 | MWC |
| 25 | Florida | 112.3 | SEC |
Note: Rhode Island from the Atlantic 10 Conference is #27, but no other A-10 team is in line for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Thus, the A-10 stays as a one-bid league if URI wins the automatic bid by winning the A-10 Tournament title. If a second team should make it into serious Bubble contention, then we will commence with A-10 expanded coverage.
Also, the Mountain West Conference is in danger of being removed from this list. While Nevada remains in the top 25 and looks like a near lock to make the NCAA Tournament with or without an automatic bid, the Wolfpack’s nearest competition, Boise State and San Diego State, have fallen back enough to be remote at-large candidates. Should the Broncos and Aztecs fall off that Bubble, we will remove the Mountain West Conference as a Major.
PiRate Ratings by Major Conference
| Cincinnati | 117.2 | AAC |
| Wichita St. | 114.4 | AAC |
| Houston | 110.3 | AAC |
| SMU | 109.9 | AAC |
| UCF | 104.4 | AAC |
| Temple | 104.2 | AAC |
| Tulsa | 101.8 | AAC |
| Tulane | 100.7 | AAC |
| Connecticut | 100.6 | AAC |
| Memphis | 99.9 | AAC |
| East Carolina | 90.8 | AAC |
| South Florida | 89.7 | AAC |
| Duke | 120.0 | ACC |
| Virginia | 119.0 | ACC |
| North Carolina | 115.9 | ACC |
| Clemson | 112.8 | ACC |
| Florida St. | 112.6 | ACC |
| Miami FL | 111.8 | ACC |
| Notre Dame | 111.6 | ACC |
| Louisville | 111.3 | ACC |
| Virginia Tech | 110.3 | ACC |
| Syracuse | 108.8 | ACC |
| North Carolina St. | 106.7 | ACC |
| Boston College | 105.6 | ACC |
| Wake Forest | 105.0 | ACC |
| Georgia Tech | 102.9 | ACC |
| Pittsburgh | 96.2 | ACC |
| Kansas | 117.0 | B12 |
| West Virginia | 116.2 | B12 |
| Texas Tech | 114.5 | B12 |
| Oklahoma | 113.5 | B12 |
| TCU | 113.1 | B12 |
| Kansas St. | 110.7 | B12 |
| Baylor | 110.4 | B12 |
| Texas | 110.2 | B12 |
| Oklahoma St. | 107.6 | B12 |
| Iowa St. | 104.7 | B12 |
| Villanova | 122.2 | BIGE |
| Xavier | 115.4 | BIGE |
| Creighton | 114.0 | BIGE |
| Butler | 110.9 | BIGE |
| Seton Hall | 110.9 | BIGE |
| Marquette | 109.7 | BIGE |
| Providence | 108.2 | BIGE |
| St. John’s | 105.9 | BIGE |
| Georgetown | 103.0 | BIGE |
| DePaul | 102.9 | BIGE |
| Purdue | 121.7 | BTEN |
| Michigan St. | 119.3 | BTEN |
| Ohio St. | 113.4 | BTEN |
| Michigan | 112.3 | BTEN |
| Maryland | 110.4 | BTEN |
| Penn St. | 108.6 | BTEN |
| Northwestern | 107.0 | BTEN |
| Nebraska | 106.5 | BTEN |
| Minnesota | 106.5 | BTEN |
| Wisconsin | 105.7 | BTEN |
| Iowa | 105.3 | BTEN |
| Indiana | 105.1 | BTEN |
| Illinois | 104.3 | BTEN |
| Rutgers | 102.6 | BTEN |
| Nevada | 112.3 | MWC |
| Boise St. | 109.0 | MWC |
| San Diego St. | 108.3 | MWC |
| UNLV | 105.5 | MWC |
| Fresno St. | 105.3 | MWC |
| Wyoming | 102.4 | MWC |
| New Mexico | 102.4 | MWC |
| Utah St. | 100.7 | MWC |
| Colorado St. | 96.5 | MWC |
| Air Force | 92.8 | MWC |
| San Jose St. | 89.7 | MWC |
| Arizona | 112.9 | PAC12 |
| Arizona St. | 111.3 | PAC12 |
| USC | 109.6 | PAC12 |
| UCLA | 107.8 | PAC12 |
| Oregon | 107.6 | PAC12 |
| Utah | 106.2 | PAC12 |
| Stanford | 103.8 | PAC12 |
| Washington | 103.1 | PAC12 |
| Colorado | 102.7 | PAC12 |
| Oregon St. | 102.7 | PAC12 |
| Washington St. | 99.7 | PAC12 |
| California | 95.2 | PAC12 |
| Auburn | 114.0 | SEC |
| Tennessee | 113.4 | SEC |
| Florida | 112.3 | SEC |
| Kentucky | 111.4 | SEC |
| Arkansas | 111.0 | SEC |
| Texas A&M | 111.0 | SEC |
| Missouri | 109.9 | SEC |
| Alabama | 108.3 | SEC |
| LSU | 108.0 | SEC |
| South Carolina | 106.8 | SEC |
| Georgia | 106.4 | SEC |
| Mississippi | 106.3 | SEC |
| Mississippi St. | 105.9 | SEC |
| Vanderbilt | 104.7 | SEC |
| Gonzaga | 116.7 | WCC |
| Saint Mary’s | 112.5 | WCC |
| BYU | 107.7 | WCC |
| San Diego | 101.2 | WCC |
| San Francisco | 99.7 | WCC |
| Pacific | 98.5 | WCC |
| Loyola Marymount | 94.3 | WCC |
| Portland | 92.5 | WCC |
| Santa Clara | 92.3 | WCC |
| Pepperdine | 90.7 | WCC |
PiRate Ratings Take on the Current 68
Beginning next week, we hope to commence with our 2018 March Madness Bracket Gurus report. We have received the go ahead from 11 of our 12 gurus saying they will be ready to send us their selections on Monday or Tuesday each week for the rest of the season. We have not been able to establish contact with Guru #12 this year, so we are in the market for a 12th Guru. We have feelers sent out to a couple of reputable bracketologists hoping to get back to a dozen.
Until then, here is our personal take on 68 teams.
America East–1: Vermont 7-0/17-5
AAC–4: Cincinnati 7-0/18-2, Wichita St. 6-2/16-4, Houston 5-2/15-4, SMU 4-4/14-7
Atlantic 10–1: Rhode Island 8-0/16-3
ACC–8: Virginia 8-0/19-1, Duke 6-2/18-2, North Carolina 5-3/16-5, Clemson 5-3/16-4, Louisville 5-2/15-5, Miami (Fla.) 4-3/15-4, Florida St. 4-4/15-5, Notre Dame 3-4/13-7
Atlantic Sun–1: Florida Gulf Coast 6-0/15-8
Big 12–7: Kansas 6-2/16-4, Oklahoma 5-3/15-4, West Virginia 5-3/16-4, Texas Tech 5-3/16-4, Kansas St. 5-3/15-5, TCU 3-5/15-5, Texas 4-4/13-7
Big East–7: Villanova 6-1/19-1, Xavier 7-2/19-3, Creighton 6-3/16-5, Seton Hall 4-3/15-5, Butler 4-4/14-7, Providence 5-3/14-7, Marquette 4-4/13-7
Big Sky–1: Montana 8-0/15-5
Big South–1: Radford 7-2/14-8
Big Ten–4: Purdue 9-0/20-2, Michigan St. 6-2/18-3, Ohio St. 9-1/18-5, Michigan 6-4/17-6
Big West–1: Hawaii 4-1/13-5
Colonial–1: Northeastern 7-2/14-7
Conference USA–1: Middle Tennessee 7-1/15-5
Horizon–1: Northern Kentucky 7-1/14-6
Ivy–1: Penn 3-0/12-6
MAAC–1: Canisius 7-1/13-8
MAC–1: Buffalo 7-0/15-5
MEAC–1: Bethune-Cookman 5-0/11-9
Missouri Valley–1: Loyola (Chi.) 7-2/17-4
Mountain West–2: Nevada 7-1/18-4, Boise St. 7-2/17-4
Northeast–1: Wagner 6-2/13-6
Ohio Valley–1: Belmont 8-1/16-6
Pac-12–3: Arizona 7-1/17-4, Arizona St. 3-5/15-5, USC 7-2/16-6
Patriot–1: Bucknell 8-1/14-8
SEC–8: Auburn 6-1/18-2, Tennessee 5-3/14-5, Florida 6-2/14-6, Kentucky 5-3/15-5, Alabama 5-3/13-7, Arkansas 4-4/14-6, Missouri 3-4/13-7, Texas A&M 2-6/13-7
Southern–1: East Tennessee 8-0/17-4
Southland–1: Stephen F. Austin 5-2/16-4
SWAC–1: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7-0/7-14
Summit–1: South Dakota 6-1/18-5
Sun Belt–1: Louisiana-LaFayette 8-0/18-3
West Coast–2: Saint Mary’s 9-0/20-2, Gonzaga 8-1/18-4
WAC–1: New Mexico St. 5-0/17-3
Last 4 In (headed to Dayton in a First 4 Game)
Notre Dame vs. Boise St.
Kansas St. vs. USC
#16 Seeds headed to Dayton in a First 4 Game
Wagner vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Penn vs. Radford
5 Double Digit Mid-Major Seeds No Single Digit Seed Wants to Play
New Mexico St.
Middle Tennessee or Western Kentucky
Louisiana-Lafayette
East Tennessee St.
Vermont
5 Final Four Dark Horses (lower than 4 seed)
Kentucky
Wichita St.
Saint Mary’s
Nevada
Michigan
The Bubble On the Outside Looking In
69 Syracuse
70 Georgia
71 Washington
72 Western Kentucky (or Middle Tennessee if WKU wins automatic bid)
73 Baylor
74 Maryland
75 North Carolina St.
76 Oklahoma St.
