Will the Big Ten Conference become the Big Billion? Rumors from multiple sources indicate that this league is on the precipice of signing a TV and media rights package that will be north of a billion dollars. This deal does not include Notre Dame. Should the Irish end up in this league, the Big Ten will dwarf even the SEC in money paid out per school.
USC and UCLA are set to join the league in two years. Whether other teams join as well is anybody’s guess.
Both divisions this year figure to have competitive races. Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to win the East and the league overall, but there are multiple teams capable of upsetting the Buckeyes. Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are strong once again, and it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility that at least one of these contenders upsets the Buckeyes.
Maryland has an easy out of conference schedule and has a good chance to gain bowl eligibility. Rutgers and Indiana will bring up the rear.
In the West, five different teams could contend for the division title. Purdue has the benefit of avoiding Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State from the East. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa are all about equal in talent this year, while Nebraska could finally return to the plus side of .500. Illinois and Northwestern are one or more excellent recruiting classes away from being contenders.
Big Ten Preseason PiRate Ratings
East Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Ohio St.
128.6
126.6
129.5
128.2
Michigan
123.6
121.8
123.4
122.9
Michigan St.
118.9
117.3
116.7
117.6
Penn St.
115.0
114.5
114.0
114.5
Maryland
110.2
110.0
109.7
109.9
Indiana
102.0
101.4
99.0
100.8
Rutgers
101.3
100.4
98.2
100.0
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Wisconsin
118.0
117.3
117.0
117.5
Iowa
117.4
115.9
115.4
116.2
Purdue
116.7
115.6
114.9
115.8
Minnesota
113.6
113.0
114.0
113.5
Nebraska
110.1
110.1
109.0
109.7
Illinois
103.0
103.6
101.1
102.5
Northwestern
99.7
100.8
97.7
99.4
Big Ten
112.7
112.0
111.4
112.0
Preseason Official Big Ten Media Poll
Votes
#
East
1st Place
Overall
1
Ohio St.
36
252
2
Michigan
0
203
3
Penn St.
0
169
4
Michigan St.
0
162
5
Maryland
0
104
6
Rutgers
0
60
7
Indiana
0
58
#
West
1st Place
Overall
1
Wisconsin
31
246
2
Iowa
3
198
3
Minnesota
2
162
4
Purdue
0
153
5
Nebraska
0
123
6
Illinois
0
65
7
Northwestern
0
61
Championship
Overall
Ohio St.
36
The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.
The 2022 edition of the PiRate Bracketnomics fared rather well compared to a large number of other options when looking for bracket-filling strategies. Obviously, neither our system nor any others pick perfect brackets or even ones where we pick 15 of the 16 teams in the Sweet 16.
We still have three of our Final Four and five of our Elite 8 still alive, as well as our picks for the National Championship Game.
We did not pick Saint Peter’s to be the real shocker, so our system missed that one entirely this year. Kentucky’s numbers were just incredibly better than the Peacocks, but the Wildcats looked like deer in the headlights all night in that game. St. Peter’s looked like a clearly superior team when they dismissed Murray State two days later.
Miami of Florida and Iowa State were somewhat of a surprise to us as well, but the Hurricanes’ ball-hawking defense countered being outrebounded by 10 and nine in their two wins. Iowa State relied on excellent half-court defense to get to this round.
The Sweet 16 is like the advances round of TV game shows. You know the type. In the first round, the questions are a little easier, but after the commercial break, the next round brings more difficult questions, and the strong separate themselves from the weak. In the Sweet 16, usually seven of the eight winners will be clearly superior to their victims, while there will be one new surprise making the Elite 8. We previously pointed out that one team that does not have our acceptable national championship resume will sneak into the Final Four. It doesn’t always happen, but like UCLA last year, usually one team will win games three and four in their tournament to make it to the third weekend in the big dome stadium.
Let’s take a look at the most important Bracketnomics numbers for each of the 16 teams.
Team
O-Eff
D-Eff
SOS
37+ 3pt
OReb%
-45% vs. 2pt
FT Rate 37
R + T New Rate
Old R+T
Arizona
7
19
58.1
35.3
34.5
41.7
0.35
6.6
17.6
Arkansas
54
14
58.2
30.5
29.9
46.5
0.38
6.9
12.7
Duke
4
43
58.2
37.0
31.9
46.4
0.29
3.9
12.3
Gonzaga
1
9
57.2
37.4
29.2
41.6
0.31
7.0
21.2
Houston
10
10
56.5
34.2
37.7
44.0
0.29
14.1
22.0
Iowa St.
160
5
60.3
31.9
28.1
50.6
0.28
1.3
3.9
Kansas
6
26
61.8
36.0
33.5
47.1
0.32
6.2
13.3
Miami (Fla.)
18
121
57.9
34.4
22.7
53.2
0.29
-5.4
-3.0
Michigan
19
77
61.8
33.9
30.9
50.5
0.30
7.1
12.3
North Carolina
20
42
59.0
36.4
30.7
48.0
0.30
9.6
16.0
Providence
32
58
57.6
35.0
30.4
47.0
0.38
2.7
8.4
Purdue
2
89
60.1
38.8
35.1
48.7
0.39
11.8
19.3
Saint Peter’s
225
28
49.5
35.5
32.1
43.5
0.38
4.6
8.9
Texas Tech
46
1
61.0
32.2
33.2
44.0
0.36
6.3
18.1
UCLA
12
13
59.4
35.3
31.7
47.3
0.30
10.5
16.9
Villanova
8
30
60.8
36.2
31.2
48.6
0.30
6.5
11.6
To briefly summarize what this data above means: O-Eff and D-Eff are the schedule strength-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The fat numbers are to have an O-Eff in the top 10 and a D-Eff in the top 20.
SOS is our own PiRate Ratings strength of schedule. A SOS of 55.0 is the minimum number to be considered a real national title contender. Going back to the beginning of the then 64-team tournament format, no team with an SOS below 55.0 has won the title.
37+3pt is the threshold for three-point shooting percentage. If it is north of 37%, the team with this big number will force defenses to spread out and open up the middle for easy two-point shots. Overall 3-point percentages have dropped a little in the last few years since the stripe was moved back a few inches.
OReb% is the percentage of missed shots rebounded by the offense. 37% is also the beginning point of excellence. If a team rebounds three out of every eight shots they miss, they can shoot 40% from the field and still win. If this same team shoots 45%, they can cut down the nets after the final game.
-45% vs.2pt is the defensive field goal percentage inside the 3-point line. If a defense allows less than 45% of the 2-point shots to be made, they have a championship-level defense.
FT Rate37 is the free throw ratio. If a team takes 3 foul shot attempts for every 8 field goal attempts, this team has an offense that forces defenses to grab because the offense is too potent.
The last two columns are our own unique R+T ratings. The new one is rate based on Four Factors data, while the old one is a counting stat. We don’t yet have a threshold for the new R+T, but the old R+T has been helping us pick winners in the Big Dance for two decades. If the R+T is 15 or better, this is a team that consistently goes on big scoring spurts, the type that frequently puts games away. 12.5 to 15 is really good. 8 to 12.5 is fairly good. 5-8 is so-so. Under 5 is not good, and below 0 is a 100% no go for the Final Four.
Let’s take a look at the eight Sweet 16 games
Gonzaga vs. Arkansas: Gonzaga has the best overall Bracketnomics resume, as they did last year. Their schedule strength is a mild issue but well within the bounds of a potential national champion. Yet, the Bulldogs have not looked their best in either NCAA Tournament win. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman is worth about 7-10 more points for his team than Penny Hardaway is for Memphis, and if that’s the case, The Razorbacks are good enough to pull off the big upset–if Gonzaga continues to play at a subpar level. There’s the rub. I don’t see Gonzaga coming out flat in this game. Their narrow escape in the Round of 32 should wake the Bulldogs up. Gonzaga’s numbers are clearly superior to Arkansas. Go with the Zags in a potential double digit win.
Villanova vs. Michigan: There is an interesting set of data for this game, where both teams have advantages and disadvantages. Michigan has a better inside presence, and the Wolverines figure to capitalize inside with a few extra baskets in their offensive halfcourt. Villanova’s overall offense is a bit too strong for Michigan’s defense, so the Wildcats’ perimeter is going to penetrate Michigan’s defense for easier shots than Michigan figures to take. Overall, Villanova has a slight advantage in the Bracketnomics data, but the advantage is slim. Let’s go with the Wildcats in a close one.
Duke vs. Texas Tech: Duke’s excellent offense faces Texas Tech’s number one defense–this should make for an exciting game. Usually, when a superior offense plays a superior defense, if all else is equal the superior offense wins more often than not. All else is not equal. If not for this being Coach K’s final year, and it looks like Duke has been benefiting from more than 50% of the 50-50 calls, this would be an easy selection, as the Red Raiders have a better overall team. On a Sweet 16 stage, maybe the referees will be more likely to get calls made correctly with hopes of being chosen for the Final Four, so Duke won’t get that benefit. If so, this might be the finale for Coach K. Texas Tech is just a bit better.
Arizona vs. Houston: What we have here is a failure to see a decisive favorite. Both teams have Final Four resumes and are clearly better than most of the other teams left in the Big Dance. The only issue in this game is the fact that a portion of Houston’s great numbers came with the addition of two former key starters that were lost to season-ending injuries earlier in the season. With their roster intact, this might have been the Houston team to do what Elvin Hayes and Don Chaney couldn’t do in the late 1960’s or what Phi Slama Jama couldn’t do in the mid 1980’s. Arizona doesn’t have the same amount of tournament experience that Houston has, as the Cougars made the Final Four last year. That’s the one thing that concerns us. Kelvin Sampson knows how to prepare a team to pay on the big stage. Arizona is the better team, but Sampson is worth a few extra points–just enough to have a 50-50 shot at the mild upset. I have to pick somebody here, but honestly, it can only be a hunch, as the Bracketnomics show this game as dead even. I’ll go with Sampson to defeat the Pac-12 Goliath by one or two points or in overtime.
Purdue vs. Saint Peter’s: Saint Peter’s has played incredible defense in their two wins, and if they could stop Oscar Tshiebwe and company, they have a chance to limit Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. But, doing so might allow Jaden Ivey to showcase his exceptional talents on the big stage. Purdue has not made the Final Four during the Gene Keady-Matt Painter era. The Boilermakers in the past had issues with R+T Ratings. This Purdue team does not have that issue, and they might run over the Peacocks like a runaway train. I think Cinderella experiences Midnight in this round, and Purdue wins by double digits.
Kansas vs. Providence: Ed Cooley has done an incredible job at Providence, but he is facing a team coming to its peak in efficiency, and Kansas is clearly the superior team across the board. With Remy Martin at full strength, the Jayhawks are better than their Bracketnomics Data indicates. Martin makes KU the best team in the Dance, and I expect Rock Chalk Jayhawk to keep advancing.
UCLA vs. North Carolina: College basketball royalty clashes in this one, and I don’t see this game being a mismatch like the 1968 National Championship Game. Looking at the Bracketnomics data, the two teams are evenly matched. There are secondary and tertiary data in this science, including tournament experience by players and coach. In all but one respect, the Bruins have the advantage in these extras.
Carolina’s one advantage is having an inside force that can dominate in the paint. Mick Cronin is coaching in his 13th NCAA Tournament and coming off a Final Four appearance with most of his key contributors returning. Hubert Davis is coaching in his first NCAA Tournament. That’s enough to pick UCLA to return to the Elite 8.
Miami (Fla.) vs. Iowa St.: This is the unique game in this round, as neither team has an acceptable Final Four Bracketnomics Resume. As previously mentioned, usually one of the four teams in the Final Four does not have the blueprint we use to pick our brackets. At least one team will make the Elite 8.
Iowa State has struggled to generate offense for long stretches of games, and they have had to rely on their defense to keep games close until the offense got on track. Miami’s small but very quick roster might be able to force the Cyclones into playing a style of ball they are not equipped to play. Let’s go with the U to become Elite. Jim Larranaga took George Mason to a Final Four.
This is a close matchup. Both teams have areas where they can exploit the other. I have looked at this game different ways, and in most ways Illinois is a little better. However, overall, Houston has a Final Four resume, while Illinois has a Sweet 16/Elite 8 resume. Only for that reason, do I slightly favor Houston. The feeling is that the Cougars’ interior defense will be just strong enough to limit Kofi Cockburn inside (not stop him but maybe make him miss a couple shots he normally would make).
Villanova vs. Ohio St.
This is a game where the Bracketnomics cannot properly analyze the game. Ohio State’s statistical resume does not reflect the current team. Numerous injuries greatly affected their resume, so the key thing to do is to look at the Buckeyes’ numbers when they were healthy, as they are now.
This game could go down to the final minute as so many others in this incredible tournament have done so far. I have to go to the minor extras to come up with a decisive winner, and Villanova gets the edge due to Jay Wright’s experience on the bench.
Duke vs. Michigan St.
Duke has two added bonuses in their favor in this game. They receive a minor home court advantage as their fans have bought a lot of losing teams’ tickets. And, of course, the players know what happens if Duke loses. They don’t want to make history as the team that sent Coach K out on an early loss.
The teams are fairly evenly matched, which is becoming a theme in this tournament. If Coach Izzo were to announce his retirement before the tip, this would be an epic game for the ages. Instead, it will just be a really good game. We’ll go with Duke to win by beating the Spartans as their own game–on the offensive glass.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa St.
This game is just what the Badgers wanted. Iowa State has issues stopping a quick-penetrating offense, and the Cyclones like to force bad outside shots and then rebound the ball with players that have sunk into the lane. Wisconsin has a quick-penetrating offense, and the Badgers rarely take a bad shot. Playing in their backyard just 80 miles away from Madison, UW receives bonus points as a quasi-home team. Look for Wisconsin to pull away in the second half and win by 7 to 12 points.
Texas Tech vs. Notre Dame
If you have followed the Bracketnomics reports, you know that one team usually makes the Final Four without having the perfect Bracketnomic resume that a Final Four team possesses. It usually happens when a team has four (or five) dream matchups, where the team keeps getting opponents that are weak where they are strong. Texas Tech had an easy opponent in their first game with Montana State. Notre Dame is better than the Bobcats, but the Irish are going to get drilled in Spurtability points. The Red Raiders should enjoy at least two big runs if not more in this game, and once this team has a lead of eight points, their nation’s best defense can tighten the screws and close games out. Tech will win, and they have a chance to make this game a second laugher if they simply play their average game.
Auburn vs. Miami (Fla.)
Auburn should win this game, and it shouldn’t be close. The Tigers enjoy a huge R+T advantage, and Miami’s is low enough that they almost qualify for automatic Bracketnomics loss with their R+T rating. Auburn has a huge advantage inside the paint in this game, and Miami doesn’t have a fantastic three-point shooting presence.
Purdue vs. Texas
This one should be interesting. Purdue’s exceptional offensive efficiency faces Texas’s exceptional defensive efficiency, making it a wash. Purdue has a better three-point shooting game and has the tendency to get their opponents’ key players in foul trouble. Texas has enough inside muscle to limit the Boilermakers’ double-headed inside monster. In the end, Purdue gets the slight advantage due to superior R+T rating.
Arizona vs. TCU
One number one seed fell yesterday. This could be the second one, because it is a tossup game. TCU has enough talent to make this a 50-50 game. The Pac-12 schedule strength is just a tad off the other Power Conferences, and the Wildcats’ numbers have been slightly skewed. UA is still strong enough to go to the Final Four, but it isn’t going to come easy, and TCU has just enough of a Bracketnomics positive resume to make this game a 40-minute challenge. Arizona is still the pick here, but I expect this game to be much closer and for Wildcat fans to chew their nails before the final horn.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 20, 2022
This early Sunday morning on the PiRate ship, we are hunkered down in the hull with a spreadsheet full of numbers. After New Mexico State, Arizona, and Cal St. Fullerton enjoyed late night trophy raisings in Las Vegas, we added the updated numbers to our Bracketology and narrowed the field of hopefuls down to 70 and then realized we had one more team that maybe should not have been sent to the SS NIT and one team that maybe shouldn’t be considered a lock for the Dance. So, we are sitting at 72 teams this morning. There are six teams at the bottom of the Bubble, and three of them will be happy around 6:30 PM EDT, while three will have to settle for a possible trip to the flowerless garden in the Big Apple rather than the Garden District in the Crescent City.
The six bubblers this morning (in alphabetical order) are: Rutgers, SMU, Texas A&M, Xavier, Wake Forest, and Wyoming. Let us add the last potential bid-stealer to this formula. If Richmond upsets Davidson today in the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game, the Spiders will receive an automatic bid, while Davidson receives an at-large invitation. That will reduce one spot at the bottom of the Bubble. Additionally, if Texas A&M upsets Tennessee in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game, the Aggies will move ahead of the Last Four in, as they would be guaranteed immunity from going to Dayton early next week. That would then take a team that currently has a bye and drop them into First Four purgatory.
By 3:00 PM EDT, we will know whether Richmond secured a spot in the Field of 68 and if Texas A&M is either an automatic bid-earner or Bubble team in the last decisions to be made. One of our fine Buckaroo lasses then pointed out that the outcome of the American Athletic Conference Championship Game between Houston and Memphis could affect the resume of SMU. A Memphis win might drag the Mustangs along in the Tiger draft. Additionally, the Iowa-Purdue Big Ten Championship Game tips off after 3:00 PM EDT, and both teams’ seed line could move one spot from this game. A Purdue loss and a Tennessee win could see the Boilermakers and Vols switching spots on the seed line. Iowa could possibly jump up one spot with a win, especially if Houston loses today.
Therefore, our final Bracketology prediction will go live only once the outcomes of the last two games are known. If both games are blowouts, we will go ahead and publish the final prediction before the games end. If either game is undecided until the closing minutes, then expect our final Bracketology to go live within 10 minutes of the final horn.
Coming Monday afternoon (Eastern Time Zone), our first installment of Bracketnomics for the 2022 NCAA Tournament will post here. This will be the explanation for how to go about picking your brackets using analytics that have been back-tested for maximum accuracy. We cannot guarantee you will win your bracket-picking contests, but we have a history of many of our subscribers doing that over the two decades this page has existed. And, you cannot beat the price of this information–only the time it takes you to read it.
There is one small warning for this year: Using the criteria we rely on, there is way too much parity in this forthcoming tournament. Usually, five to eight teams have Final Four worthy resumes. As of this morning, only two teams have such wonders. That means that two teams that do not have Final Four resumes are guaranteed to make this year’s Final Four. It also means that a team like Connecticut in both 2011 and 2014 might be poised to make a run to the National Championship Game, and it is a much higher probability that a Mid-Major makes the Final Four like Loyola, Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, and George Mason have done in this Century and Indiana State and Penn did in 1979. If you are wondering when was the last time a team from outside of a power conference actually won the tournament, it was UNLV in 1990, 32 years ago. Gonzaga has come close twice, losing in the final game to North Carolina and to Baylor. Butler came within a final shot rolling on the rim and falling off of winning against Duke.
This shapes up to be a very exciting NCAA Tournament this year. There will be a lot of interesting story lines, so today, we are informing you that you probably feel a bit off. By Thursday morning, you just won’t be able to get up and going, and you will have to call in sick to work with a 48-hour bug, forcing you to take sick days on Thursday and Friday. Being self-employed or a member of sports media through the years, I was fortunate not to have to get Madness Fever.
Today’s Conference Tournament Schedule
All Times Eastern Daylight
12:00 PM on ESPN2: Ivy League Championship Game
Princeton vs. Yale
1:00 PM on ESPN: Southeastern Conference Championship Game
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M
1:00 PM on CBS: Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game
Davidson vs. Richmond
3:15 PM on ESPN: Conference USA Championship Game
Houston vs. Memphis
3:30 PM on CBS: Big Ten Conference Championship Game
Final Bracketology coming this afternoon after SEC Championship Game Concludes
After last night’s late games on the West Coast concluded, our Bracketology hopefuls shrunk to 70 teams. We still have to eliminate two teams from our field of 68 and then do a final seeding after the conclusion of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The outcome of that game will most definitely affect the field, possibly changing who plays an opening round “play-in” game in Dayton.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 13, 2022
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