The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 1, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 1-6, 2021

Last week, we explained what our PiRate Picks are all about. We even gave you a sample Money Line Parlay that included Illinois beating Nebraska, UTEP beating New Mexico St., and UCLA beating Hawaii. This parlay had payout odds of +341, which meant if you wagered $100, and the teams all won, you would receive $441 in return. But, we made sure you understood that this was a sample and not official.

As of Monday afternoon, three people had notified us that they had played a little real currency on this parlay and were quite happy with their return.

How many times can we state this? Please do not bet real money on our just for fun selections! Okay, so one of you wagered $20, one of you wagered $50, and one of you wagered $100 on this parlay and won money. These same people could just as easily have lost this wager, and there is no guarantee that this week’s two selections have a snowball’s chance in Hades of winning.

We strongly urge you to look at these selections as mathematical entertainment and nothing else. If you are going to wager real money on sports, please do your research. Don’t rely on this site as your substitute for research. We use mathematical factors and not actual research to make these selections.

That said, we have two actual Money Line parlays this week, involving five games. If you did not read last week’s tutorial, or if you are a long-time follower of this site and need a refresher course, our expertise is the Money Line Parlay. The Money Line is a number, plus or minus. If the number is a minus, then you must wager this number of dollars against the book’s offering $100. So, a -145 means you the bettor must put up $145 to win $100 from the book. If you bet $145 on this game and won, you would receive $245 from the book ($100 + your investment money). If the number is positive, for every $100 you wager, the book offers the amount of the the positive numbers in dollars. So, a +170 means that if you wager $100 and win, the book will give you $270 ($170 + your investment).

When you wager on the money line, all that matters is that your selection wins. They can win by one point or 100 points; it doesn’t make a difference.

Obviously, if you want to wager on Alabama against Louisiana-Monroe, expect the Money Line to be about -100,000. You would have to wager $100,000 to win $100. If you wagered $100 on this parlay, when Alabama wins, you would receive one dime in profit, and the book would possibly not accept this one wager.

Obviously, it is much easier to bet a favorite to win, but you will receive less than even money odds. A -240 favorite equates to the team having a 70% chance of winning the game. If you believe that team has a better than 70% chance of winning, it might be worth your while to wager on it. If you win 75% of the time you wager on a -240 money line, you will turn a small profit.

The problem with wagering on favorites is that it is quite difficult to maintain the percentage needed to make a profit. Betting on 20 different teams at -240 and winning 13 of 20 means a loss of $380.

If you wager on a bunch of underdogs, there is also little chance that in the long run you will come out ahead. The answer to this is to bundle a group of favorites into a parlay that returns better than even money odds. For our purposes, we look for parlays of +120 and higher. At +150, we break even if the teams we wager on to win all win more than 40% of the time. At +200, if the parlay has a better than 33.3% chance on winning, we turn a profit.

It looks easy. Try it yourself without wagering. Look at the Money Line odds and make a parlay. There are free parlay calculators online to show you your odds. Try it with 10 parlays and see if you can win enough to make it work. You will find that the books know what they are doing. They build billion dollar mega-structures in the desert, because they know how to vacuum your money into their accounts.

Here are our two selections for Week 1 of the College Football Season. Remember, these are just for fun. We have a bottomless pretend bank account to repeatedly wager $100 on every selection.

Odds:+125
Must WinOpponent
Central FloridaBoise St.
DukeCharlotte


Odds:+265.98
Must WinOpponent
North CarolinaVirginia Tech
Kansas St.Stanford
PurdueOregon St.

February 26, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Friday, February 26, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
St. BonaventureGeorge Washington15.2
Saint LouisRichmond2.2
CincinnatiTulane5.3
StetsonNorth Florida4.6
Kennesaw St.Florida Gulf Coast-7.7
Northern ArizonaSouthern Utah-7.2
IdahoMontana St.-13.0
Penn St.Purdue0.3
Cal PolyUC Davis-7.1
UC IrvineUC San Diego9.8
Cal St. BakersfieldCal St. Northridge10.8
UC RiversideUCSB-2.3
HawaiiLong Beach State7.3
James MadisonDrexel1.9
MarshallNorth Texas3.5
Old DominionMiddle Tennessee9.6
UTSAUAB-3.9
Louisiana TechRice9.1
Southern MissFlorida Atlantic-0.2
SienaManhattan10.7
Saint Peter’sRider10.5
AkronBowling Green4.1
BradleyDrake-7.0
EvansvilleMissouri St.-7.2
ValparaisoIndiana St.-3.6
Loyola (Chi.)Southern Illinois21.3
Illinois St.Northern Iowa1.4
Utah St.Nevada6.8
UNLVFresno St.4.8
Central ConnecticutWagner-9.5
BryantLong Island University8.2
MerrimackSt. Francis (NY)2.8
Sacred HeartFairleigh Dickinson0.9
Texas St.UL Monroe10.1
Georgia SouthernAppalachian St.-0.9
UT ArlingtonArkansas St.2.1
TroyCoastal Carolina-5.6
Little RockLouisiana0.1
South AlabamaGeorgia St.-1.9
DenverOmaha-1.6
South Dakota St.UM Kansas City8.7
Utah ValleyUT Rio Grande Valley1.1
TarletonNew Mexico St.-6.4
SeattleGrand Canyon-6.5

Coming Later Friday: Updated Bracketology. There was considerable movement in the field of 68 since our Monday update. Teams like Duke, Michigan St., and North Carolina St. are making late pushes to sneak into the field. The first conference tournament began last night, and more tourneys will commence in the next few days, as March Madness lite begins Monday.

The PiRates will be heading down to the galley to make a big bowl of stew and start crunching the numbers that will become Bracketnomics 2021. The recipe has changed–for the Bracketnomics, not the stew.

February 16, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

February 16, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
Rhode IslandDayton3.1
Saint LouisLa Salle14.1
TulsaTemple3.9
Oklahoma St.Iowa St.12.0
ConnecticutProvidence4.4
St. John’sXavier0.3
MarylandNebraska8.9
PurdueMichigan St.6.3
IllinoisNorthwestern11.8
GeorgiaMissouri-3.6
ArkansasFlorida2.8
Santa ClaraLoyola Marymount-0.7

September 16, 2020

The Big Ten Reverses Course

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:53 am

The Big Ten Conference has decided to resume football in 2020, reversing its decision to wait until the Winter/Spring of 2021. The league hopes to begin playing in late October and most likely play an 8-game schedule, concluding on December 19 with the Conference Championship Game.

This will pose big problems with the PiRate Ratings for two reasons, which I am sure the folks at Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Iowa, and Northwestern didn’t consider when considering whether or not to return.

The PiRate Ratings will have to recalculate to a 90-team environment from a 76-team environment. Our ratings use sample size in the algorithm and maintain a mean rating of 100.0 (or 100.0 is par value). By the time the Big Ten commences playing, other teams will have played as many as seven game, and their updating criteria will be quite different from the teams just starting play. Even though the Big Ten will be self-contained and play only inside its own environment, for ranking and rating purposes, these teams must be compared on the same par value, which means in order to re-install the Big Ten’s original preseason ratings, the other 76 teams will have to be recalculated, and to be quite honest, not only have we yet to cross that bridge, we cannot find it on a map!

In addition to the recalculation, we will have to create new formats on our spreadsheets and input the new algorithmic formulae for 90 teams (or 76 + however many Big Ten teams play).

Note to Pac-12, MWC, and MAC officials: if you plan on reconsidering your league paradigm this year, please make those decisions known by Noon Saturday!

February 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 21, 2020

Date

2/21/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Seton Hall

Creighton

Louisville

Villanova

4

Penn St.

West Virginia

Kentucky

Colorado

5

Oregon

Auburn

Butler

Iowa

6

Michigan St.

Arizona

Ohio St.

Marquette

7

Michigan

BYU

Houston

Wisconsin

8

Illinois

LSU

Texas Tech

Rutgers

9

Saint Mary’s

Xavier

Florida

Rhode Island

10

Arizona St.

Wichita St.

Oklahoma

Virginia

11

USC

Indiana

Northern Iowa

USC

12

Liberty

Yale

Utah St.

N. Carolina St.

Richmond

Cincinnati

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

South Dakota St.

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Montana

16

Winthrop

Austin Peay

Prairie View

Siena

St. Francis (PA)

Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

Georgetown

70

Purdue

71

Mississippi St.

72

Stanford

73

Providence

74

South Carolina

75

Arkansas

76

Alabama

77

UNC Greensboro

78

Memphis

The First Four

Opening Round in Dayton

12 Seed Game: Utah St. vs. Cincinnati

12 Seed Game: North Carolina St. vs. Richmond

16 Seed Game: Norfolk St. vs. Prairie View

16 Seed Game: Siena vs. St. Francis (PA)

February 10, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 10, 2020

Date

2/10/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

Maryland

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

West Virginia

Auburn

4

Villanova

Butler

Oregon

Penn St.

5

Kentucky

Michigan St.

Iowa

Creighton

6

LSU

Colorado

Marquette

Illinois

7

Arizona

Rutgers

Wisconsin

Michigan

8

Houston

Texas Tech

BYU

Ohio St.

9

USC

Purdue

Wichita St.

Arkansas

10

Saint Mary’s

Rhode Island

Oklahoma

Florida

11

Xavier

Indiana

Northern Iowa

Stanford

Virginia

12

E. Tennessee St.

Yale

S. F. Austin

Mississippi St.

VCU

13

Liberty

Vermont

New Mexico St.

North Texas

14

Bowling Green

Wright St.

Colgate

Hofstra

15

Winthrop

Little Rock

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Montana

Prairie View

Rider

Robert Morris

N. Carolina A&T

The Bubble Contenders

69

Arizona St.

70

Cincinnati

71

Memphis

72

Utah St.

73

Minnesota

74

N. Carolina St.

75

Richmond

76

Syracuse

77

Notre Dame

78

Furman

 

 

February 7, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 7, 2020

Date

2/7/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

West Virginia

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

Maryland

Villanova

4

Butler

Auburn

Oregon

Michigan St.

5

Penn St.

Creighton

Kentucky

Iowa

6

LSU

Colorado

Arizona

Marquette

7

Illinois

Ohio St.

Rutgers

Houston

8

Texas Tech

Wisconsin

Michigan

Wichita St.

9

BYU

Arkansas

USC

Saint Mary’s

10

Indiana

Rhode Island

Florida

Stanford

11

Xavier

Memphis

Northern Iowa

Virginia

Purdue

12

East Tennessee St.

Yale

Liberty

VCU

Cincinnati

13

Stephen F. Austin

North Texas

Vermont

New Mexico St.

14

Wright St.

Colgate

Bowling Green

Little Rock

15

Hofstra

Winthrop

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Northern Colorado

Prairie View

Monmouth

Robert Morris

North Carolina A&T

The Bubble Contenders

69

Oklahoma

70

Mississippi St.

71

Arizona St.

72

Minnesota

73

Georgetown

74

Tulsa

75

Utah St.

76

Richmond

77

North Carolina St.

78

Providence

 

 

 

 

February 5, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 5, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:35 am

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Albany

Binghamton

10.5

Army

Boston University

-3.3

Butler

Villanova

3.7

Cal Poly

Long Beach St.

1.8

Cal St. Fullerton

UC Riverside

-0.7

Chattanooga

East Tennessee St.

-5.1

Drake

Bradley

-0.8

Evansville

Southern Illinois

-4.6

Florida

Georgia

8.8

Florida Intl.

Florida Atlantic

3.4

Furman

Mercer

12.9

Georgetown

Seton Hall

-1.4

Holy Cross

Loyola (MD)

-2.9

Incarnate Word

Sam Houston St.

-14.2

Indiana St.

Loyola (Chi)

0.1

Lamar

Central Arkansas

5.4

Lehigh

Colgate

-7.7

Louisville

Wake Forest

15.6

Memphis

Temple

8.1

Miami

North Carolina St.

-0.6

Minnesota

Wisconsin

2.7

Missouri St.

Illinois St.

6.2

Navy

American

3.1

Northwestern St.

Abilene Christian

-5.1

Notre Dame

Pittsburgh

5.7

Oklahoma St.

TCU

2.8

Ole Miss

South Carolina

0.4

Omaha

North Dakota St.

-1.8

Providence

Creighton

-1.5

Purdue

Iowa

1.2

Purdue Fort Wayne

Western Illinois

7.6

Saint Louis

Duquesne

2.9

Samford

Western Carolina

-5.1

Southeast Louisiana

Houston Baptist

5.4

St. Bonaventure

George Washington

8.3

Stephen F. Austin

Nicholls St.

8.5

Stony Brook

UMass Lowell

12.2

Texas A&M-CC

McNeese St.

-0.9

UMBC

Hartford

0.9

UNC Greensboro

Citadel

20.0

Utah St.

UNLV

10.9

Valparaiso

Northern Iowa

-6.4

Vanderbilt

LSU

-10.0

Vermont

Maine

21.9

Virginia

Clemson

6.3

VMI

Wofford

-5.6

West Virginia

Iowa St

12.5

 

Top Eight Basketball Games on TV Wednesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:00 PM

CBSSN

Indiana St.

Loyola (Chi)

6:30 PM

FS1

Butler

Villanova

7:00 PM

BTN

Purdue

Iowa

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Saint Louis

Duquesne

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Florida

Georgia

7:30 PM

ESPN+

Stephen F. Austin

Nicholls St.

8:30 PM

FS1

Georgetown

Seton Hall

9:00 PM

BTN

Minnesota

Wisconsin

 

 

January 28, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 28, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

St. John’s

Villanova

-2.1

Tennessee

Texas A&M

12.4

Virginia

Florida St.

-1.5

Florida

Mississippi St.

5.1

Cincinnati

SMU

6.2

VCU

Richmond

4.1

George Mason

Rhode Island

-5.4

Akron

Buffalo

9.5

Toledo

Kent St.

2.9

Clemson

Syracuse

1.3

Nebraska

Michigan

-6.2

Miami (O)

Central Michigan

0.7

Bowling Green

Ball St.

-0.9

Rutgers

Purdue

3.0

Miami

Virginia Tech

-1.0

Northern Illinois

Ohio

5.0

Missouri

Georgia

3.9

Duke

Pittsburgh

18.3

Georgetown

Butler

-0.7

Ole Miss

Auburn

-5.0

Air Force

Fresno St.

1.8

Wyoming

Utah St.

-13.6

 

Tuesday’s Best Games On TV

 

Tonight’s small slate of games features a couple of key contests where teams are

jostling for NCAA Tournament berths.  The top game of the night is an inner-city

battle between Virginia Commonwealth and Richmond, two Atlantic 10 rivals

separated by just five miles and a half dozen monuments.

 

If St. John’s has any idea of getting back on the Bubble for a potential NCAA

Tournament at-large bid the Red Storm needs to upset Villanova tonight at Madison

Square Garden.  St. John’s has dropped six of their last eight games.

 

Could it be that last year’s National Champion misses out on an NCAA Tournament

bid?  Virginia is hanging on by a thread in the at-large wars, as the Cavaliers might

become the first champion in five years not to make the Big Dance the next season.

UVA is 5-4 in the ACC and 13-6 overall with a couple of good wins, but multiple bad

losses.  A win tonight over a tough Florida State team could put the Cavs back above

the midpoint of the Bubble, but the Seminoles are competing for a number one

seed, and a road win in the ACC could strengthen that chance.

 

The Big Ten is the strongest conference in the nation today, and when 12 teams in

one league are competing for probably 10 bids, every game is vital.  Purdue is in

10th place in the Big Ten at 4-5/11-9, but the Boilermakers are in contention for an

at-large bid.  Rutgers is in great shape, as the Scarlet Knights are enjoying their best

season since Phil Sellers, Eddie Jordan, and Hollis Copeland made RU basketball the

most exciting event in the Metro NY-NJ area.  This year’s RU team sits at 6-3 in the

Big Ten, good enough for a tie for third and just one game behind the co-leaders.

 

At 2-5/12-8, Georgetown has moved far down the Bubble and is currently an NIT

team from the Big East.  If the tournament started today, five Big East Teams would

have invitations.  Butler 4-3/16-4 would be one of those five.  The Hoyas need a big

win over the Bulldogs tonight.

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

FS1

St. John’s

Villanova

7:00 PM

ESPN

Virginia

Florida St.

7:00 PM

CBSSN

Va. Commonwealth

Richmond

8:00 PM

BigTen

Rutgers

Purdue

9:00 PM

CBSSN

Georgetown

Butler

 

 

January 24, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For January 24 , 2020

Date

1/24/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

San Diego St.

Kansas

2

Florida St.

Duke

Michigan St.

Seton Hall

3

West Virginia

Louisville

Oregon

Dayton

4

Villanova

Butler

Maryland

Iowa

5

Kentucky

Arizona

Auburn

Colorado

6

Creighton

Penn St.

Wisconsin

Marquette

7

LSU

Rutgers

Illinois

Wichita St.

8

Ohio St.

Stanford

Indiana

Arkansas

9

Houston

Michigan

USC

Florida

10

Memphis

Texas Tech

BYU

Saint Mary’s

11

Oklahoma

North Carolina St.

East Tennessee St.

Virginia Tech

VCU

12

Liberty

Akron

North Texas

Minnesota

DePaul

13

Stephen F. Austin

New Mexico St.

Vermont

Harvard

14

Loyola (Chi.)

Colgate

William & Mary

Wright St.

15

Little Rock

UC-Irvine

Murray St.

South Dakota St.

16

Montana

Winthrop

Monmouth

Norfolk St.

Long Island

Prairie View

 

First Four Out

Georgetown

Richmond

Purdue

Xavier

 

Next Four Out

Tennessee

Alabama

Rhode Island

Northern Iowa

 

 

 

 

 

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