The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 6, 2012

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Simper Bowl V

Simper Bowl V

The championship round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday morning, January 6, 2012, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC received automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finished in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules were applied, at-large invitations were extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gave the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 played in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Were:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

 

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

 

The Final Four Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

 

Simper Bowl Facts

The Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers actually played in this year’s Rose Bowl, and the Simper Bowl takes place in the same vicinity at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marked the second time in Simper Bowl history that the computer simulated National Championship Game featured teams that actually squared off in a bowl.

 

We went ahead and simulated this game 100 times after we simulated it the one time to represent the Simper Bowl.  The winner of the Simper Bowl only won 37 of the 100 simulations performed after the Simper Bowl, so we would call the winner of this game an upset.

 

And, the 2011-12 Simper Bowl Champions Are: THE OREGON DUCKS!

 

Congratulations to the Ducks, as they defeated Wisconsin 38-30 in the lone simulation prior to the 100 sims performed afterwards.  Wisconsin won 63 of the 100 simulations performed after we recorded the results of the Simper Bowl.

 

Here are the Simper Bowl Stats:

 

Ore

Team

Wis

 

 

 

20

FD

23

 

 

 

35-206

Rush

41-209

 

 

 

271

Passing

257

 

 

 

17-29-0

Passes

22-33-1

 

 

 

64

Plays

74

 

 

 

477

Tot Yds

466

 

 

 

4-92

KR

6-132

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-0

 

 

 

1-13

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

6-47

Pen

8-58

 

 

 

2-43.5

Punt

3-46.7

 

 

 

27:12

Time

32:48

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Ore

10

14

7

7

38

Wis

3

10

10

7

30

Rushing Leaders

Oregon: James 21-135 and 2 touchdowns
Wisconsin: Ball 25-143 and one touchdown
 

Passing Leaders

Oregon: Thomas 17-29-0 271 yards and 2 touchdowns
Wisconsin: Wilson 22-33-1 257 yards and one touchdown
 

Receiving Leader

Oregon: Tuinei 6-118 and one touchdown
Wisconsin: White 3-90 and one touchdown

 

On Monday morning, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.

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January 1, 2012

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl V

The semifinal round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday, December 30, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 play in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Are:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

 

The Final Four

Oregon at LSU

Wisconsin at Oklahoma State

 

The Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

 

LSU

Team

Ore

 

 

 

19

FD

20

 

 

 

45-166

Rush

49-260

 

 

 

179

Passing

181

 

 

 

16-28-2

Passes

10-17-0

 

 

 

73

Plays

66

 

 

 

345

Tot Yds

441

 

 

 

5-116

KR

4-107

 

 

 

1-34

PR

3-23

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

2-76

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-0

 

 

 

7-57

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

5-42.6

Punt

3-29.3

 

 

 

32:11

Time

27:49

 

 

 

1-4

Sacks

3-22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

LSU

7

3

10

14

34

Ore

15

14

7

3

39

Summary

The Ducks Struck early when LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson’s
first pass was batted at the line of scrimmage and intercepted by
Oregon linebacker Josh Kaddu and returned for a touchdown.
LaMichael James broke loose for a 53-yard touchdown run to give
the Ducks a 15-0 lead 10 minutes into the game.
After Jefferson was benched in the third quarter following his
second interception of the game, Jarrett Lee brought LSU back
within striking distance, but a final drive was squashed at the OU
19-yard line when Lee’s pass to the end zone was batted away by
John Boyett.
James rushed for 143 yards and quarterback Darron Thomas
rushed for one score and passed for two others.

 

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

 

OSU

Team

Wis

 

 

 

26

FD

22

 

 

 

34-156

Rush

45-261

 

 

 

254

Passing

232

 

 

 

24-41-1

Passes

19-26-0

 

 

 

75

Plays

71

 

 

 

410

Tot Yds

493

 

 

 

4-83

KR

5-106

 

 

 

3-19

PR

2-22

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

1-13

 

 

 

2-1

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

11-100

Pen

3-20

 

 

 

4-40.0

Punt

4-41.8

 

 

 

28:47

Time

31:13

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

4-25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

OSU

10

14

14

0

38

Wis

6

6

21

8

41

Summary

Wisconsin rallied from a 38-19 deficit with three touchdowns in the
last 21 minutes of the game.  Russell Wilson ran 32 yards for the
first of these scores.  Then, the Badgers recovered an onside kick
and relied on a trick play to score.  Montee Ball threw a halfback
pass to Nick Toon for 48 yards and a touchdown.
UW completed the comeback with a 14-play, 82-yard touchdown
drive culminated by James White’s three-yard plunge.
The drive ate more than seven minutes off the clock leaving
Oklahoma State just 1:18 to try to get into field goal range.
Brandon Weeden completed three passes for 46 yards, but Quinn
Sharp’s 51-yard FG attempt on the final play was short.

 

Championship Game Set

Join us Friday afternoon, January 6, 2012, for Simper Bowl V, as the Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers face off at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marks the second time that the computer simulated National Championship Game has featured teams actually squaring off in a bowl.

 

On Monday, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.

December 27, 2011

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl V

The quarterfinal round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday, December 23, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 play in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Are:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

Today’s Elite 8 Matchups

#8 Kansas State 11-2 at #1 L S U 13-0

#5 Oregon 12-2 at #4 Stanford 11-1

#10 Wisconsin 12-2 at #2 Alabama 11-1

#11 Clemson 11-3 at #3 Oklahoma State 11-1

 

Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

 

LSU

Team

KSU

 

 

 

21

FD

12

 

 

 

44-251

Rush

29-83

 

 

 

153

Passing

235

 

 

 

11-19-0

Passes

18-42-2

 

 

 

63

Plays

71

 

 

 

404

Tot Yds

318

 

 

 

1-42

KR

6-118

 

 

 

5-42

PR

2-1

 

 

 

2-34

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

0-0

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

6-38

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

3-42.3

Punt

7-41.6

 

 

 

30:34

Time

29:26

 

 

 

3-19

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

LSU

3

24

14

3

44

KSU

0

0

0

16

16

Summary

LSU broke open a tight game in the second quarter starting with
a 31 yard interception return for touchdown by Tyrann Mathieu.
 
Following a three-and-out by Kansas State, the Tigers ensuing drive was a nine-play, 68-yard touchdown march culminated by QB Jordan Jefferson’s six yard scamper around left end.
 
Kansas State did not get on the scoreboard until they trailed 41-0
with 9:32 left to play in the game.

 

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

 

Stan

Team

Ore

 

 

 

23

FD

28

 

 

 

26-99

Rush

42-213

 

 

 

311

Passing

223

 

 

 

26-45-2

Passes

18-26-1

 

 

 

71

Plays

68

 

 

 

410

Tot Yds

436

 

 

 

4-87

KR

4-102

 

 

 

2-11

PR

0-0

 

 

 

1-11

Int Ret

2-31

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-0

 

 

 

7-52

Pen

6-43

 

 

 

4-39.8

Punt

2-41.0

 

 

 

27:51

Time

32:09

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Stan

10

10

0

7

27

Ore

7

14

10

7

38

Summary

Oregon broke open a tight game in the 3rd qtr with a 12-play,
80-yard drive that consumed over seven minutes off the clock.
Darron Thomas completed a 12-yard pass to Lavasier Tuinei for
the touchdown.
 
Following a LaMichael James 46-yard run to the Cardinal 11 yard
line, Alejandro Maldonado kicked a 26-yard field goal to put the
Ducks up by 11 points.  Both teams scored a TD in the final quarter.
 
Andrew Luck completed a 41-yard pass for a score to Coby
Fleener, while James sprinted 16 yards for the game-clincher.
James led all players with 176 yards rushing.

 

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Ala

Team

Wis

 

 

 

14

FD

19

 

 

 

38-134

Rush

52-213

 

 

 

187

Passing

171

 

 

 

19-32-1

Passes

15-22-0

 

 

 

70

Plays

74

 

 

 

321

Tot Yds

384

 

 

 

3-62

KR

2-41

 

 

 

5-19

PR

2-17

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

1-0

 

 

 

3-2

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

9-62

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

7-39.4

Punt

6-41.5

 

 

 

26:48

Time

33:12

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Ala

0

6

6

7

19

Wis

7

3

7

7

24

Summary

The Badgers pulled off the first major upset of the tournament, and they did so by playing old-style football better than the favored Crimson Tide.
 
On the first possession of the game, UW drove 77 yards on 14 plays, using almost eight minutes of the clock.  The Badgers ran the ball 12 times for 58 yards and passed twice for 19 to gain a lead they kept for the duration of the game.
 
Montee Ball rushed for 152 yards on 31 carries, many times gaining a first down in crucial moments.  In the fourth quarter, with UW leading 17-12, the Badgers were backed up at their own 10 yard line facing a 3rd and 6.  Ball broke two tackles to pick up
the first down, and UW drove to midfield before punting to the ‘Bama 7.  The defense forced the Tide to punt from the 3, and it gave UW excellent field possession at the Tide 38.  Russell Wilson completed a TD pass to Nick Toon to sew up the victory.

 

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

OSU

Team

Clem

 

 

 

31

FD

16

 

 

 

31-156

Rush

31-119

 

 

 

433

Passing

104

 

 

 

29-43-0

Passes

11-26-1

 

 

 

74

Plays

57

 

 

 

589

Tot Yds

223

 

 

 

2-39

KR

7-229

 

 

 

5-44

PR

0-0

 

 

 

1-(-2)

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

7-55

 

 

 

1-46.0

Punt

6-40.3

 

 

 

36:19

Time

23:41

 

 

 

3-20

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

OSU

23

14

7

0

44

Clem

0

14

0

6

20

Summary

This game was never in doubt, starting with the first play from
scrimmage.  Cowboy QB Brandon Weeden tossed a quick screen
pass to Joseph Randle, who ran 74 yards for a touchdown.
Moment later, a Clemson punt attempt was blocked through the
end zone for a safety, and after the ensuing free kick, Oklahoma
State drove 62 yards for their second touchdown, culminated by
Weeden’s 23 yard pass to Justin Blackmon to give OSU a 16-0 lead just five minutes into the game.
 
Clemson did not score until they trailed 30-0, when Sammy Watkins returned a kick 97 yards for a touchdown.
 
Randle led all rushers with 128 yards on 18 carries.  The
Cowboys held Andre Ellington to 67 rushing yards.

 

The Final Four Is Set

Oregon ventures to Baton Rouge to face L S U for the second time this season, while Wisconsin travels to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State in the other semifinal game.  The winners of these games will advance to the Simper Bowl at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

 

Check back New Year’s Eve for the results of those two simulations.

December 12, 2011

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Opening Round

The Road To Simper Bowl V

The opening round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday, December 9, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 play in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Are:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

Here Is This Year’s Bracket

Opening Round  12/10/11 Quarterfinals  12/24/11 Semifinals 12/31/11 Championship 1/7/12 Legitimate Champion
         
#9 South Carolina 10-2        
  |      
  |      
  | |    
@ #8 Kansas St. 10-2 | |    
    | |  
  @ #1 L S U 13-0 | |  
      |  
      |  
      |  
#12 West Virginia 9-3     | |
  |   | |
  |   | |
  | | | |
@ #5 Oregon 11-2 | | | |
    |   |
  @ #4 Stanford 11-1 |   |
        |
        |
      @ L.A. Coliseum |
#10 Wisconsin 11-2       |
  |     |
  |     |
  | |   |
@ #7 Boise St. 11-1 | |   |
    | | |
  @ #2 Alabama 11-1 | | |
      | |
      | |
      | |
# 11 Clemson 10-3     |  
  |   |  
  |   |  
  | | |  
@ #6 Arkansas 10-2 | | |  
    |    
  @ #3 Oklahoma St. 11-1 |    

 

 

Opening Round Results

#9 South Carolina 10-2 at #8 Kansas St. 10-2

Final Score: Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

 

Kan St

Team

S Car

 

 

 

21

FD

16

 

 

 

48-196

Rush

38-148

 

 

 

175

Passing

142

 

 

 

12-21-0

Passes

13-25-1

 

 

 

69

Plays

63

 

 

 

371

Tot Yds

290

 

 

 

3-138

KR

5-106

 

 

 

3-27

PR

2-8

 

 

 

1-12

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

7-56

Pen

6-50

 

 

 

5-42.4

Punt

7-41.7

 

 

 

31:47

Time

28:13

 

 

 

2-12

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Kan St

6

14

10

0

30

S Car

0

7

7

6

20

Scoring

 KS:1st Qtr–9:42: Cantele 39 yd FG

KS: 1st Qtr–3:11: Cantele 42 yd FG

SC: 2nd Qtr– 10:26: Shaw 1 yd. run, Wooten Kick

KS: 2nd Qtr–10:09: Lockett 98 yd. Kick Return, Cantele Kick

KS: 2nd Qtr–0:48 Harper 39 yd. pass from Klein, Cantele Kick

SC: 3rd Qtr–11:51 Wilds 8 yd. run, Wooten Kick

KS: 3rd Qtr–6:08: Cantele 37 yd FG

KS: 3rd Qtr–1:19: Hubert 4 yd. run, Cantele Kick

SC: 4th Qtr–5:37: Jeffrey 41 yd. pass from Shaw, 2-pt try failed

 

#12 West Virginia at #5 Oregon

Final Score: Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

 

Ore

Team

WVU

 

 

 

24

FD

17

 

 

 

45-234

Rush

21-69

 

 

 

254

Passing

237

 

 

 

19-27-0

Passes

22-43-2

 

 

 

72

Plays

64

 

 

 

488

Tot Yds

306

 

 

 

3-67

KR

5-93

 

 

 

3-29

PR

0-0

 

 

 

2-16

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

6-42

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

2-42.5

Punt

7-39.4

 

 

 

33:08

Time

26:52

 

 

 

4-32

Sacks

1-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Ore

22

9

3

7

41

WVU

0

7

10

0

17

Scoring

Ore: 1st Qtr–10:39: Barner 7 yd. run, James run for 2

Ore: 1st Qtr–7:28: James 21 yd. run, Maldonado Kick

Ore: 1st Qtr–2:19: Tuinei 14 yd. pass from Thomas, Maldonado Kick

Ore: 2nd Qtr–13:32: WVU holding in end zone

Ore: 2nd Qtr–5:51: Thomas 2 yd. run, Maldonato Kick

WVU: 2nd Qtr–1:04: Bailey 7 yd. pass from Smith, Bitancurt Kick

WVU: 3rd Qtr–12:06: Alstun 3 yd. run, Bitancurt Kick

WVU: 3rd Qtr–6:42: Bitancurt 40 yd. FG

Ore: 3rd Qtr–2:23: Maldonado 38 yd. FG

Ore: 4th Qtr–7:04: Tuinei 23 yd. pass from Thomas, Maldonado Kick

 

#10 Wisconsin at #7 Boise State

Final Score: Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

 

BSU

Team

Wis

 

 

 

21

FD

26

 

 

 

29-98

Rush

49-256

 

 

 

257

Passing

194

 

 

 

19-35-1

Passes

15-22-0

 

 

 

64

Plays

71

 

 

 

355

Tot Yds

450

 

 

 

6-128

KR

5-117

 

 

 

2-17

PR

3-61

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

1-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

1-0

 

 

 

7-54

Pen

6-35

 

 

 

4-39.8

Punt

5-42.6

 

 

 

26:41

Time

33:19

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

BSU

7

6

3

10

26

Wis

10

0

21

7

38

Scoring

BSU: 1st Qtr–11:27: Martin 2 yd. run, Frisina Kick

Wis: 1st Qtr–6:12 Welch 38 yd. FG

Wis: 1st Qtr–2:31: Abbrederis 24 yd. pass from Wilson, Welch Kick

BSU: 2nd Qtr–7:31: Frisina 42 yd. FG

BSU: 2nd Qtr–0:00: Frisina 41 yd. FG

Wis: 3rd Qtr–12:52: Ball 19 yd. run, Welch Kick

Wis: 3rd Qtr–6:29: Ball 4 yd. run, Welch Kick

BSU: 3rd Qtr–4:11: Frisina 37 yd. FG

Wis: Ball 5 yd. run, Welch Kick

BSU: 4th Qtr–10:55: Shoemaker 20 yd. pass from Moore, Frisina Kick

BSU: 4th Qtr–5:48: Frisina 35 yd. FG

Wis: 4th Qtr–3:26: White 8 yd. run, Welch Kick

 

#11 Clemson at #6 Arkansas

Final Score: Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

 

Ark

Team

Clem

 

 

 

 

 

 

33

FD

26

 

 

 

 

 

 

40-168

Rush

36-165

 

 

 

 

 

 

316

Passing

307

 

 

 

 

 

 

28-48-2

Passes

19-34-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

88

Plays

70

 

 

 

 

 

 

484

Tot Yds

472

 

 

 

 

 

 

4-78

KR

6-149

 

 

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

3-41

 

 

 

 

 

 

0-0

Int Ret

2-77

 

 

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

 

 

 

9-73

Pen

6-44

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-41.0

Punt

3-40.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

35:11

Time

24:49

 

 

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

3-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

OT

OT

Final

Ark

14

7

10

3

7

3

0

44

Clem

7

21

3

3

7

3

6

50

Scoring

Ark: 1st Qtr–10:44: Wright 11 yd. pass from Wilson, Hocker Kick

Ark: 1st Qtr–5:56: Wright 9 yd. pass from Wilson, Hocker Kick

Clem: 1st Qtr–1:12: Ellington 7 yd. run, Catanzaro Kick

Ark: 2nd Qtr–11:32: Green 1 yd. run, Hocker Kick

Clem: 2nd Qtr–8:44: Ellington 6 yd. run, Catanzaro Kick

Clem: 2nd Qtr–6:29: Christian 48 yd. Int. Return, Catanzaro Kick

Clem: 2nd Qtr–1:14: Watkins 48 yd. pass from Boyd, Catanzaro Kick

Ark: 3rd Qtr–9:13: Mitchell 1 yd. run, Hocker Kick

Clem: 3rd Qtr–5:44: Catanzaro 44 yd. Field Goal

Ark: 3rd Qtr–0:06: Hocker 39 yd. Field Goal

Clem: 4th Qtr–4:59: Catanzaro 40 yd. Field Goal

Ark: 4th Qtr–0:08 Hocker 48 yd. Field Goal

Ark: 1st OT: Green 2 yd. run, Hocker Kick

Clem: 1st OT: Ellington 14 yd. run, Catanzaro Kick

Clem: 2nd OT: Catanzaro 35 yd. Field Goal

Ark: 2nd OT: Hocker 42 yd. Field Goal

Clem: 3rd OT: Ellington 9 yd. run, no PAT attempted

 

The Updated Bracket

 

Opening Round  12/10/11 Quarterfinals  12/24/11 Semifinals 12/31/11 Championship 1/7/12 Legitimate Champion
         
#9 South Carolina 10-2        
  |      
  | Kansas State 30-20      
  | |    
@ #8 Kansas St. 10-2 | |    
    | |  
  @ #1 L S U 13-0 | |  
      |  
      |  
      |  
#12 West Virginia 9-3     | |
  |   | |
  | Oregon 41-17   | |
  | | | |
@ #5 Oregon 11-2 | | | |
    |   |
  @ #4 Stanford 11-1 |   |
        |
        |
      @ L.A. Coliseum |
#10 Wisconsin 11-2       |
  |     |
  | Wisconsin 38-26     |
  | |   |
@ #7 Boise St. 11-1 | |   |
    | | |
  @ #2 Alabama 11-1 | | |
      | |
      | |
      | |
# 11 Clemson 10-3     |  
  |   |  
  | Clemson 50-44 3ot   |  
  | | |  
@ #6 Arkansas 10-2 | | |  
    |    
  @ #3 Oklahoma St. 11-1 |    
         

Elite 8 Matchups

#8 Kansas State 11-2 at #1 L S U 13-0

#5 Oregon 12-2 at #4 Stanford 11-1

#10 Wisconsin 12-2 at #2 Alabama 11-1

#11 Clemson 11-3 at #3 Oklahoma State 11-1

 

Happy Holidays to All and to All A Good Playoff Sim.

December 5, 2011

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Bracket Reveal

Filed under: 2011 Simulated NCAA Playoffs — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:39 pm

The Dandy Dozen For 2011-12

Welcome to the 2011-12 college football simulated playoffs.  If you despise the ridiculous bowl system where a 6-7 UCLA team gets to play a 14th game, while a 7-5 Western Kentucky team does not get a bowl bid, because some greedy corporation can squeeze a little more money out of naïve fans, and if you despise the fact that Virginia Tech can lose to Clemson by four touchdowns and still earn a Sugar Bowl bid over TCU, Southern Mississippi, Kansas State, or Boise State, then this is the place for you.

 

This is our fifth year to provide this service.  We call the computer-simulated National Championship, “The Simper Bowl.”  It has annually been our most widely read features.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC receive automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finishes in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules have been applied, at-large invitations are extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gives the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams 5-12 play in the opening round. 

 

We have made a couple of changes this year.  We wish to honor the excellent book written by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan “Death to the BCS.”   In this book, the authors believe a playoff should give home-field advantage to the higher-seeded team.  So, beginning this year, the first three rounds will be played on the home fields of the higher-seeded team.  Only the Simper Bowl will be played on a neutral field.  So as not to give any credence to the fake National Championship Game in New Orleans (the one in which Stanford and Oklahoma State get no chance to state their cases), we have chosen to play this year’s Simper Bowl at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, out of respect for the NFL-AFL’s first Super Bowl.  Thus, home field advantage will be factored into our computer simulator.

 

We are also going back to our old format, where we simulate each game just one time.  Last year, we simulated each game 100 times, but we realized our mistake.  Real games are played just once, and upsets occur when that happens.  When teams play 100 times, the better team is going to win more than 50 of those games.  So, this year’s simulation should be much more exciting with a higher standard deviation from the expected norm—at least we hope.

 

We have access to a university simulator in which a sports fanatic has implemented college and pro football data going back to 1960.  He originally attempted to predict the outcome of games against the spread, but he found out his simulator only works in predicting outright winners.  When simulated 1,000 times, his simulator predicts the winners with about 87% accuracy (but only 53% against the spread).

 

We will simulate each game only one time and then reveal the score and statistics.  We have not decided yet whether we will transcribe the play-by-play data for the Championship Game like we did last year when there were six contributors to this blog (there are just two this year, and one will be away from home for most of the holiday season).

 

The Dandy Dozen

Here are our 12 playoff teams for 2011-12:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Bracket

Opening Round  12/10/11 Quarterfinals  12/24/11 Semifinals 12/31/11 Championship 1/7/12 Legitimate Champion
         
#9 South Carolina 10-2        
  |      
  |_____________________      
  | |    
@ #8 Kansas St. 10-2 | |_________________    
    | |  
  @ #1 L S U 13-0 | |  
      |  
      |  
      |___________________  
#12 West Virginia 9-3     | |
  |   | |
  |_____________________   | |
  | | | |
@ #5 Oregon 11-2 | |_________________ | |
    |   |
  @ #4 Stanford 11-1 |   |
        |
        |
      @ L.A. Coliseum |_____________
#10 Wisconsin 11-2       |
  |     |
  |_____________________     |
  | |   |
@ #7 Boise St. 11-1 | |_________________   |
    | | |
  @ #2 Alabama 11-1 | | |
      | |
      | |
      |___________________ |
# 11 Clemson 10-3     |  
  |   |  
  |_____________________   |  
  | | |  
@ #6 Arkansas 10-2 | |_________________ |  
    |    
  @ #3 Oklahoma St. 11-1 |    

 

 

The opening round games will be simulated Friday morning, December 9, and we will post the results on Saturday evening, December 10, as if the games had been played Saturday afternoon.

 

One other tidbit:  All injured players on December 3 will be considered injured for the opening round games as well, unless we see evidence that they were only out for one week.  All players charged with game suspensions will be suspended for the playoffs for the appropriate number of games.  The simulator reduces each teams’ power ratings if key players are not playing.

 

Happy reading everybody.  Please post your comments during this tournament if you like or dislike.  We are interested in seeing opinions.

 

If you want to be proactive in your desire to see this ridiculous post-season bowl system end and be replaced by a legitimate national championship playoff (like every other NCAA/NAIA sport that is not prostituted to greedy corporations), then let the sponsors of the bowl games know of your opinion.  It is simple to find all the sponsors of every bowl game on each bowls’ official website.  Note the sponsoring companies that you currently patronize and find their customer service e-mail addresses.  Send them an e-mail notifying them of your choice to stop using their products as long as they host a bowl game.  Clarify that if they stop sponsoring bowls, you will begin to use their products once again.  To make your point more forceful, include a CC to their competitor, as long as the competitor does not sponsor bowls.

 

For example, let us look at the Fiesta Bowl.  The main sponsor is Frito-Lay, maker of Tostito’s.  They can be e-mailed at: www.fritolay.com/about-us/contact-us.html.  This “bowlcott” will benefit you because you will stop consuming their products made with unhealthy genetically modified corn and oils.  Send a CC to Kettle Chips at: www.kettlebrand.com/.  Kettle Chips are free of trans fats, GMO ingredients or oils, and artificial ingredients.  They make an organic chip as well.

 

These same corporations could just as easily sponsor 35 opening-week “classic” games.  Instead of 35 FBS vs. FCS matchups in week one, there could be 35 games like Oregon vs. LSU and Boise State vs. Georgia.  With a playoff, teams would need to schedule for the highest possible strength of schedule.  Instead of rewarding Virginia Tech with a Sugar Bowl invitation following a stellar non-conference slate of Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State, and Marshall, the Hokies would be forced to start their season against Boise State or Alabama, like they did in 2009 and 2010m when they participated in “classics.” 

 

This would work great all the way through the lower-tier conferences.  MAC teams could face Sunbelt or WAC teams in the opening week.  Mountain West teams could line up against Conference USA teams. 

 

Just like early season basketball matchups like North Carolina vs. Kentucky and Michigan State vs. Duke, imagine an opening week of the 2012 season with these 12 games from among a great list of 35 “classics:”

LSU vs. Stanford

Alabama vs. Oregon

Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame

Arkansas vs. Texas

Michigan vs. Kansas State

South Carolina vs. Wisconsin

Clemson vs. West Virginia

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska

T C U vs. Texas A&M

Boise State vs. Florida State

Penn State vs. Pittsburgh

Southern Cal vs. Ohio State

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