The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 29, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 1-6, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:26 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
RutgersTemple15.615.914.6
Central FloridaBoise St.2.11.43.9
Appalachian St. (n)East Carolina5.25.76.2
North Carolina St.South Florida18.519.118.3
TennesseeBowling Green35.033.538.3
MinnesotaOhio St.-13.5-12.2-12.6
Virginia TechNorth Carolina-5.5-7.2-10.8
Wake ForestOld Dominion38.636.638.9
CharlotteDuke-9.9-10.5-7.3
NorthwesternMichigan St.4.34.85.3
MichiganWestern Michigan15.015.517.2
Georgia St.Army-0.1-0.6-0.9
Kansas St. (n)Stanford2.61.11.5
KentuckyLouisiana-Monroe33.335.335.9
TulaneOklahoma-28.5-27.2-25.6
WisconsinPenn St.6.55.45.7
ArkansasRice26.125.824.2
OregonFresno St.16.816.217.2
MarylandWest Virginia-3.5-3.5-3.8
IowaIndiana0.4-0.41.1
CincinnatiMiami (O)16.418.121.9
NavyMarshall-0.1-0.9-0.8
Miami (Fla.) (n)Alabama-13.3-12.7-13.7
PittsburghMassachusetts28.029.832.6
MissouriCentral Michigan8.810.89.7
Mississippi St.Louisiana Tech25.825.527.0
TexasLouisiana9.99.98.2
USCSan Jose St.18.017.322.0
PurdueOregon St.1.40.71.8
HoustonTexas Tech1.1-1.32.8
Texas St.Baylor-13.4-16.1-14.6
Ohio USyracuse0.63.33.9
AuburnAkron37.638.641.5
IllinoisUTSA7.17.28.8
FloridaFlorida Atlantic32.432.732.3
Georgia TechNorthern Illinois11.714.315.2
Clemson (n)Georgia-2.3-1.4-0.8
South AlabamaSouthern Miss.10.88.88.6
Texas A&MKent St.28.727.430.7
UCLALSU4.93.53.4
ArizonaBYU-11.0-10.7-13.3
CaliforniaNevada0.33.83.5
San Diego St.New Mexico St.33.131.735.4
Washington St.Utah St.18.718.618.9
Florida St.Notre Dame-2.4-4.1-4.7
Ole Miss (n)Louisville11.611.910.0

Note:. Oklahoma vs. Tulane has been moved to Norman, OK.

Home

Oklahoma
Visitor

Tulane
PiRate

33.5
Mean

32.2
Bias

30.6

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
UAB (n)Jacksonville St.18.3
UtahWeber St.30.6
UNLVEastern Washington6.7
New MexicoHouston Baptist20.0
Florida Int’l.Long Island22.4
Ball St.Western Illinois26.7
BuffaloWagner37.7
Coastal CarolinaThe Citadel30.6
TulsaUC-Davis26.3
Western KentuckyUT-Martin17.7
Arizona St.Southern Utah37.7
Eastern MichiganSt. Francis (PA)29.3
KansasSouth Dakota14.6
ColoradoNorthern Colorado31.0
Colorado St.South Dakota St.7.6
WyomingMontana St.21.4
HawaiiPortland St.21.8
Air ForceLafayette35.0
Boston CollegeColgate37.6
ConnecticutHoly Cross7.3
NebraskaFordham25.5
Iowa St.Northern Iowa36.7
LibertyCampbell26.7
Georgia SouthernGardner-Webb28.8
South CarolinaEastern Illinois30.4
Middle TennesseeMonmouth8.6
Oklahoma St.Missouri St.35.0
MemphisNicholls21.6
SMUAbilene Christian28.5
ToledoNorfolk St.33.4
Arkansas St.Central Arkansas15.6
TroySouthern25.7
North TexasNorthwestern St.11.1
VirginiaWilliam & Mary31.9
VanderbiltEast Tennessee St.20.3
TCUDuquesne43.9
WashingtonMontana28.8
UTEPBethune-Cookman11.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama130.2
2Oklahoma128.1
3Georgia125.2
4Iowa St.124.8
5Clemson122.2
6Ohio St.121.9
7U S C119.4
8Florida118.2
9Texas A&M118.1
10North Carolina117.7
11Miami (Fla.)116.9
12Cincinnati116.5
13Auburn116.1
14T C U116.0
15Wisconsin115.9
16Texas115.6
17Indiana115.5
18Ole Miss113.3
19Arizona St.113.1
20Oklahoma St.113.1
21Penn St.113.1
22Iowa112.8
23Oregon112.5
24West Virginia112.3
25L S U112.1
26Washington112.1
27U C L A112.0
28Utah111.9
29Notre Dame110.2
30Mississippi St.110.1
31Arkansas109.5
32BYU109.2
33Louisiana109.2
34Coastal Carolina108.4
35Wake Forest107.7
36Kentucky107.4
37Maryland107.2
38Oregon St.106.9
39Missouri106.4
40Minnesota106.1
41NC State106.1
42Northwestern105.8
43Colorado105.7
44Liberty105.5
45Virginia Tech105.3
46Boston College105.2
47Michigan104.9
48Baylor104.5
49Kansas St.104.4
50Tennessee104.0
51Boise St.103.9
52Purdue103.7
53Florida St.103.5
54Michigan St.103.0
55Stanford103.0
56UCF102.8
57Virginia102.7
58Washington St.102.5
59Louisville102.1
60Nebraska102.0
61Texas Tech101.9
62Appalachian St.101.0
63South Carolina100.8
64San Jose St.100.8
65Houston100.7
66Pittsburgh100.2
67San Diego St.100.2
68Tulsa100.1
69Army100.0
70Miami (Ohio)99.7
71Central Michigan99.7
72Tulane99.0
73Nevada98.8
74Wyoming98.5
75California98.4
76Georgia Tech98.2
77Buffalo98.0
78Illinois97.6
79Ball St.97.4
80Fresno St.96.7
81Toledo96.7
82Air Force96.5
83Georgia St.96.5
84East Carolina95.3
85U A B95.2
86SMU95.0
87Rutgers95.0
88Arizona94.6
89U T S A93.9
90Hawaii93.6
91Ohio93.5
92Marshall93.4
93Troy93.4
94Memphis93.2
95Syracuse92.9
96Kent St.91.7
97Georgia Southern91.6
98Eastern Michigan91.4
99South Alabama91.2
100Western Michigan91.0
101USF90.4
102Navy90.3
103Vanderbilt90.1
104Arkansas St.89.9
105Duke89.8
106Colorado St.89.0
107Texas St.87.8
108Florida Atlantic87.7
109Northern Illinois87.5
110Rice87.1
111Louisiana Tech86.5
112Utah St.85.8
113New Mexico85.7
114Kansas85.4
115U N L V84.9
116Southern Miss.84.4
117Middle Tennessee83.7
118Western Kentucky82.7
119North Texas81.7
120Temple81.6
121Akron79.8
122Charlotte79.5
123Florida Int’l.79.0
124U T E P77.9
125UL-Monroe75.6
126Connecticut74.3
127UMass73.1
128Old Dominion71.4
129Bowling Green70.8
130New Mexico St.67.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati116.3115.3118.0116.5
UCF102.5101.2104.8102.8
Houston101.199.5101.6100.7
Tulsa100.2100.399.7100.1
Tulane98.897.5100.699.0
East Carolina95.394.396.295.3
SMU94.395.495.495.0
Memphis92.492.894.393.2
USF91.089.790.690.4
Navy90.890.090.390.3
Temple80.682.481.981.6

AAC Averages96.796.297.696.8

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.9121.5124.0122.2
Wake Forest108.0106.7108.3107.7
NC State106.5105.8105.9106.1
Boston College104.7105.3105.7105.2
Florida St.103.4103.6103.5103.5
Louisville101.7101.4103.2102.1
Syracuse93.793.192.192.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina116.4116.7119.9117.7
Miami (Fla.)117.1116.1117.7116.9
Virginia Tech106.4104.9104.7105.3
Virginia102.1104.1101.8102.7
Pittsburgh99.8100.9100.1100.2
Georgia Tech98.098.398.398.2
Duke89.791.288.589.8

ACC Averages104.9105.0105.3105.0

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma129.3126.7128.2128.1
Iowa St.125.3123.5125.6124.8
T C U116.6115.1116.3116.0
Texas116.7114.5115.6115.6
Oklahoma St.113.5113.2112.5113.1
West Virginia113.8112.0111.1112.3
Baylor104.9104.8103.8104.5
Kansas St.104.9104.7103.5104.4
Texas Tech102.0102.8100.8101.9
Kansas88.185.682.585.4

Big 12 Averages111.5110.3110.0110.6

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.121.1121.3123.2121.9
Indiana114.9115.0116.4115.5
Penn St.111.7112.8114.6113.1
Maryland108.7106.9105.8107.2
Michigan104.3105.1105.3104.9
Michigan St.103.5103.0102.5103.0
Rutgers94.196.394.595.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin115.2115.2117.3115.9
Iowa112.3111.6114.5112.8
Minnesota104.6106.1107.6106.1
Northwestern105.8105.8105.8105.8
Purdue103.6102.9104.5103.7
Nebraska101.7102.2102.0102.0
Illinois97.197.698.297.6

Big Ten Averages107.0107.3108.0107.5

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall93.493.493.693.4
Florida Atlantic86.788.687.887.7
Middle Tennessee83.483.184.783.7
Western Kentucky81.783.682.882.7
Charlotte78.879.680.279.5
Florida Int’l.77.978.980.179.0
Old Dominion71.271.971.271.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B95.495.294.995.2
U T S A94.094.593.493.9
Rice87.087.187.387.1
Louisiana Tech86.987.485.286.5
Southern Miss.83.385.284.584.4
North Texas82.181.781.481.7
U T E P78.179.176.377.9

CUSA Averages84.384.984.584.6

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame108.8110.6111.2110.2
BYU109.2108.2110.3109.2
Liberty104.3105.6106.5105.5
Army100.099.8100.2100.0
Connecticut74.976.172.074.3
UMass74.874.070.573.1
New Mexico St.68.569.265.767.8

Indep. Averages91.591.990.991.5

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)101.999.298.199.7
Buffalo98.597.597.998.0
Ohio92.294.494.093.5
Kent St.91.393.490.591.7
Akron81.879.678.179.8
Bowling Green71.672.168.870.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan100.599.199.599.7
Ball St.98.498.395.597.4
Toledo97.596.795.896.7
Eastern Michigan93.191.289.891.4
Western Michigan91.291.690.191.0
Northern Illinois89.387.086.187.5

MAC Averages92.391.790.491.4

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.9103.3104.3103.9
Wyoming97.798.499.598.5
Air Force96.496.396.996.5
Colorado St.88.888.889.389.0
Utah St.85.686.685.285.8
New Mexico85.886.285.285.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Jose St.101.3101.699.5100.8
San Diego St.100.699.9100.2100.2
Nevada98.499.798.498.8
Fresno St.95.297.297.996.7
Hawaii93.993.293.693.6
U N L V85.884.384.684.9

MWC Averages94.494.694.594.5

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.0112.4114.1112.5
Washington110.9112.4112.9112.1
Oregon St.106.7106.7107.3106.9
Stanford102.6103.9102.4103.0
Washington St.102.3103.2102.1102.5
California95.7100.599.098.4

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C118.8118.4120.9119.4
Arizona St.112.4113.5113.6113.1
U C L A111.9111.9112.2112.0
Utah111.8112.1111.8111.9
Colorado106.4105.8104.9105.7
Arizona95.294.594.094.6

Pac-12 Averages107.1107.9107.9107.7

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia124.8124.5126.3125.2
Florida117.0119.4118.1118.2
Kentucky106.7108.8106.8107.4
Missouri106.2106.9106.2106.4
Tennessee104.1103.1104.6104.0
South Carolina101.1101.0100.4100.8
Vanderbilt90.989.989.690.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.4128.8131.3130.2
Texas A&M117.4118.3118.6118.1
Auburn116.4115.2116.6116.1
Ole Miss113.3113.3113.2113.3
L S U111.0112.4112.8112.1
Mississippi St.110.2110.4109.7110.1
Arkansas110.1109.9108.5109.5

SEC Averages111.4111.6111.6111.5

Sunbelt Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina109.2106.4109.6108.4
Appalachian St.100.5100.0102.5101.0
Georgia St.97.096.296.396.5
Troy93.193.493.793.4
Georgia Southern91.792.191.291.6

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana109.8107.6110.4109.2
South Alabama91.691.590.691.2
Arkansas St.89.891.088.889.9
Texas St.89.486.787.287.8
UL-Monroe76.476.573.975.6

Sun Averages94.894.194.494.5

Rating of Conferences

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.5
2Big 12110.6
3Pac-12107.7
4Big Ten107.5
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic96.8
7Mountain West94.5
8Sun Belt94.5
9Independents91.5
10Mid-American91.4
11Conference USA84.6

August 19, 2021

Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

The Atlantic Coast Conference benefitted from Covid by gaining an extra playoff team last year.  With Notre Dame choosing to become a full member for the season, and then with the Irish running the table, topping Clemson, while Clemson won all its remaining games, when the Tigers took the rematch in the ACC Championship Game, it opened the door for two ACC teams to make the playoffs.  

Unfortunately for the league, Clemson was bombed by Ohio State and Notre Dame had no chance against Alabama in the semifinal round, as the two teams lost by a combined 38 points.

2021 should be back to normal for the league, but who knows if this will be the last time the 14 teams are together in one league, as of this writing, rumors are running rampant about a possible alliance between the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12, and other rumors have claimed that Clemson and Florida State would like to become members of the SEC.

At the ACC Preseason Meetings, the media voted their predictions for the 2021-2022 season.

Atlantic Division

(First-place votes in parenthesis)

1. Clemson – 1,028 (146)

2. NC State – 804 (1)

3. Boston College – 638

4. Florida State – 510

5. Wake Forest – 472

6. Louisville – 462

7. Syracuse – 202

Coastal Division

(First-place votes in parenthesis)

1. North Carolina – 979 (109)

2. Miami – 881 (28)

3. Virginia Tech – 582 (3)

4. Pitt – 576 (1)

5. Virginia – 540 (2)

6. Georgia Tech – 340 (4)

7. Duke – 218

Overall Champion

Clemson – 125

North Carolina – 16

Miami – 3

Virginia – 1

Georgia Tech – 1

NC State – 1

Clemson doesn’t rebuild; the Tigers reload with the next round of 4-star and 5-star talent.  Losing once in a generation quarterback Trevor Lawrence is not a reloadable possibility.  D.J. Ulagalelei is a brute force that could play tight end or linebacker.  He just happens to have an accurate arm and the intelligence to know where to throw the ball.  While he won’t put up Lawrence numbers, especially on the ground, he can lead Clemson back to the playoffs again.  Finding capable receivers will be a tougher task, but tight end Braden Galloway gives CU a big target in the middle of the field.

Coach Dabo Swinney has 10 defensive starters coming back this year, and one or two might lose starting status to even better players.  This should be the best defense in all of college football, led by one of the best defensive lines in many years.  Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy could easily make the 1st team All-American team.

Clemson also rates highly in its kicking games, as punter Will Spiers carried a 44 yard average, and placekicker B.T. Potter nailed a couple of 50-yard plus field goals and hit on 18 of 23 overall.

Clemson gets its toughest task in the regular season right off the bat, when they face Georgia in Charlotte on September 4.  If they get past their old rival, there’s no reason to think they cannot go undefeated until the Playoffs.

The race for second place in the Atlantic Division is wide open.  Five of the remaining six teams in the division could finish in second place.

Wake Forest had an outstanding offense and weak defense last year going 4-4 in the regular season before losing to Wisconsin in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.  An offense that scored 36 points per game and racked up 444 yards per game merely returns every starter this year and welcomes some fine new talent.  Coach Dave Clawson has this team flying under the radar.  Due to unfortunate injuries the last two seasons, there is loads of depth on board, and the Demon Deacons need only a slight improvement on the defensive side to contend for nine or ten wins.

North Carolina State didn’t play Clemson last year due to a Covid cancellation, and the Wolfpack didn’t play Notre Dame.  Their 8-4 record was helped by playing Duke, Syracuse, and Florida State.  This year, the Wolfpack have a better roster on both sides of the ball, and another 8-win season is quite possible, even with Clemson returning to the schedule.

Coach Dave Doeren must hope that quarterback Devin Leary can return from a season-ending leg injury and be the pre-injury passer he was in 2020, when he completed 60% of his passes for an average of 13.5 yards per completion.  Leary has three talented receivers coming back that combined for 118 receptions for 1,744 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Leary will have good protection as four offensive linemen starters are back.

The Wolfpack need to be a little stingier against the pass this year if they are to contend for second place in the Atlantic.  After giving up more than 240 passing yards and 415 total yards in 2020, NC State will have new defensive backs in the starting 11.

Jeff Hafley came to Boston College after producing a couple of outstanding defenses at Ohio State.  He took over a BC program that was falling back in the pack and in one year, he made the Eagles a tough out in the ACC.  While BC went 5-5 in the league and 6-5 overall, they lost to North Carolina by four, Clemson by six, Notre Dame by 14, and Virginia by 11.  

Hafley has a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball, and in year two in Chestnut Hill, we expect the Eagles to earn a bowl bid and be in the hunt for an eight-win season.  By 2022, this team might be ready to compete for a division title.

Mike Norvell’s first season at Florida State would have been unforgettable if he hadn’t made headlines a couple of times.  A 3-6 included just one impressive win.  After losing to a Georgia Tech team still trying to transition to a pro-style offense from the triple option, the Seminoles were embarrassed by in-state rival Miami by six touchdowns.  Additional lopsided losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville showed the fans just how far this program had fallen since Jimbo Fisher left for Texas A&M.

FSU may have benefitted the most from the Transfer Portal, as Norvell picks up several players that should become starters.  The only thing in the way of a winning season this year may be the schedule, as the Seminoles play Notre Dame and Florida out of conference as well as North Carolina and Miami from the Coastal Division.

Louisville took a step back in Scott Satterfield’s second year after going 8-5 in 2019.  He also antagonized fans and maybe the administration by lobbying for the South Carolina job that he did not get.  This program is one to watch to see if Satterfield still owns the locker room.  If not, UL may be headed for trouble.  The Cardinals have lost some key players to transfer in the past couple of years too, so this may be the do or die season for Satterfield.  If he can work the same magic he worked at Appy State, UL might turn things around, but it’s not a guarantee.

Syracuse went 10-3 in 2018, and Coach Dino Babers appeared to be the second coming of Mike Leach.  Since then, the Orange are 6-17.  Last year, the Air Raid offense never took off.  Scoring just 17.8 points per game and totaling just 265 total yards per game, third weakest in the nation.  The squad is much more experienced this year, but SU doesn’t look like a team capable of coming out of the basement.

The Coastal Division has a clear-cut favorite for the first time in many years, but it isn’t a slam dunk like the Atlantic Division.

North Carolina went 11-1 in 1997 and finished sixth in the polls in Coach Mack Brown’s last season during his first tenure in Chapel Hill.  The Tar Heels have not finished in the top ten since.  However, they made it back to the top ten after starting the 2020 season 3-0.  When a team with a great coach coming off a decent year returns one of the top five quarterbacks in the nation plus the entire offensive line, it is a good bet that this team will light up the scoreboard.  UNC averaged 42 points per game last year.  Is it possible, the Tar Heels could approach 50 points per game this year?  It isn’t impossible, and if they do score 50 points per game, QB Sam Howell will be invited to New York in December.  Only a defense that had some issues with the pass last year could prevent North Carolina from competing for the ACC Championship.  Clemson should be able to outscore them in a potential conference championship game.

Miami of Florida will be there waiting to replace North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game if the Tar Heels’ defense isn’t up to the task.  The Hurricanes’ defense will be strong enough to make Manny Diaz’s third team a big winner in Coral Gables.  With quarterback D’Eriq King returning after proving to be a dual threat in the new spread offense, Miami should score a few more points per game than they did last year.  

The Hurricanes get the optimum test to open the season, as they face defending national champion Alabama in Atlanta.  Nick Saban won’t allow his team to overlook Miami, but even so, Miami might scare the Crimson Tide for a quarter or two.

After the top two in the Coastal, there is a major dropoff to the next tier.  Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Pittsburgh are fairly evenly matched, and they are likely to split the games between them while losing to the two heavyweights.  

Justin Fuente has been at Virginia Tech for five years and owns a 38-26 record in Blacksburg.  He is on a very hot seat after going 5-6 last year.  We will note that legendary coach Frank Beamer was 22-32-1 in his first five years.

Virginia Tech must rebuild on offense, which was the strongpoint of the season last year.  The Hokies lost starting quarterback Hendon Hooker via the Transfer Portal and star running back Khalil Herbert to the NFL.  It looks like 2021 will be the decisive year in Blacksburg for Fuente.  If the Hokies go 6-6 or 7-5, it might not be enough for him to keep this job.

Virginia won the Coastal Division title in a small surprise in 2019, but Covid ruined the Cavaliers’ ability to play consistently last year, and they fell to 4-5 in the league.  Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavs did enjoy a four-game winning streak in late October and November, including wins over North Carolina and Boston College.

Quarterback Brennan Armstrong also led the team in rushing last year; he played behind an inexperienced line and didn’t have a go-to running back last year.  Armstrong will have to wait until November for his best target to be available.  Wideout Lavel Davis Jr. is rehabbing from an ACL injury suffered in Spring practice.  Davis averaged 25.8 yards per catch last year after scoring two touchdowns on four receptions in his college debut against Duke.  A healthy Davis could be the difference in the final two games of the season against the other two teams in this tier in the Coastal Division.

Every year, the PiRate Ratings don’t seem to give Pat Narduzzi’s Pittsburgh Panthers a lot of respect.  While the ratings are based on certain data, there must be something Narduzzi and his coaching staff do to produce a product that is greater than the sum of its parts.  Once again, the Panthers’ are looking at a mediocre start to their season, but this year the first four games are all winnable, and three of the four are basically sure things.  Playing Syracuse from the Atlantic, as well as the expected bottom tier teams in the Coastal gives Pitt a chance to win three or four conference games and make a small bowl.

Pitt plays an old style of football.  Their defense leads the way, while their offense is pedestrian but makes fewer mistakes than a wide open offense.  Last year, Pitt led the ACC in rushing yards allowed and finished second in total yards allowed, but offensively the Panthers finished near the bottom.

Things might be a bit different in 2021 as quarterback Kenny Pickett is a fifth year senior and has gotten better every year.  Having star receiver Jordan Addison return with him means the Panthers should see improved numbers in the passing game.  Unfortunately, Pitt lost their starting defensive ends from last year, two players that combined for 16 ½ sacks and 27 ½ tackles for loss.  The Panthers still have a talented trio of starting linebackers, including Cam Bright, who had 8 ½ sacks last year.

Duke suffered through a miserable 2020 season that saw the Blue Devils go 1-9 in league play and 2-9 overall.  2021 doesn’t look to be very promising, as the Blue Devils lost more experience than any team in the league.  The offense led the nation in turnovers, and even though the former quarterback responsible for 21 of those 39 has transferred out of the program, Duke might commit fewer turnovers this year but gain many fewer yards with a junior who threw 25 passes last year, mostly of the three and four yard variety.  Additionally, the offensive line must be rebuilt, and rather than suffer through fumbles and interceptions, sacks might be the new liability this year.

Coach David Cutcliffe must also rebuild his defense, but there’s nowhere to go but up, after Duke finished last in the league in scoring defense.  The only reason why the Blue Devils didn’t give up the most total yards is that opponents found it easy to run the ball against them.  Duke finished dead last in rushing defense, so opponents didn’t throw the ball as often as they did against other teams.

Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the ACC:

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.9121.5124.0122.2
Wake Forest108.0106.7108.3107.7
NC State106.5105.8105.9106.1
Boston College104.7105.3105.7105.2
Florida St.103.4103.6103.5103.5
Louisville101.7101.4103.2102.1
Syracuse93.793.192.192.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina116.4116.7119.9117.7
Miami (Fla.)117.1116.1117.7116.9
Virginia Tech106.4104.9104.7105.3
Virginia102.1104.1101.8102.7
Pittsburgh99.8100.9100.1100.2
Georgia Tech98.098.398.398.2
Duke89.791.288.589.8

ACC Averages104.9105.0105.3105.0

The PiRate Ratings are designed to be effective for the next week’s slate of games and not to be used to look forward.  Nevertheless, we predict the won-loss records just for fun.

Atlantic Coast AtlanticConf.Overall
Clemson8-012-1*
Boston College5-39-3
Wake Forest5-38-4
North Carolina St.4-47-5
Louisville4-46-6
Florida St.3-55-7
Syracuse0-82-10

Atlantic Coast CoastalConf.Overall
North Carolina7-111-2
Miami (Fla.)7-110-2
Virginia Tech4-46-6
Pittsburgh3-56-6
Virginia3-55-7
Georgia Tech2-64-8
Duke1-74-8

* Clemson picked to win ACC Championship Game

March 3, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 am

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
La SalleSaint Joseph’s0.6
George WashingtonFordham4.3
TulaneWichita St.-4.5
SyracuseClemson0.8
Notre DameNC St.2.4
Florida St.Boston College14.9
Seton HallConnecticut0.2
St. John’sProvidence2.6
VillanovaCreighton1.6
Eastern WashingtonIdaho St.13.7
Penn St.Minnesota3.1
NorthwesternMaryland-2.6
North Carolina A&TSouth Carolina St.12.0
North Carolina CentralFlorida A&M0.4
Colorado St.New Mexico18.8
UNLVSan Diego St.-12.3
WagnerMerrimack6.1
BelmontSIU Edwardsville16.4
Morehead St.Southeast Missouri St.8.7
UtahOregon St.3.8
OregonUCLA2.4
USCStanford7.7
Boston ULehigh7.2
FloridaMissouri4.9
Texas A&MMississippi St.-3.7
Sam Houston St.Texas A&M-CC14.7
New OrleansNorthwestern St.3.0
Houston BaptistIncarnate Word0.4
Central ArkansasSoutheast Louisiana1.5
Stephen F. AustinAbilene Christian-3.1

February 24, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
DavidsonSt. Bonaventure-1.0
George MasonGeorge Washington6.5
Saint Joseph’sDayton-8.8
La SalleDuquesne-4.3
South FloridaTemple3.8
MemphisTulane11.7
TulsaCincinnati1.2
Wake ForestClemson-6.0
VirginiaNC St.8.7
Miami (Fla.)Florida St.-12.5
North CarolinaMarquette8.9
ButlerSeton Hall-6.7
CreightonDePaul13.6
ProvidenceXavier-0.8
Southern UtahNorthern Arizona11.8
LongwoodHampton8.8
RutgersIndiana3.1
Ball St.Kent St.-4.6
UNC CentralNorth Carolina A&T2.8
Norfolk StDelaware St.14.2
Air ForceNew Mexico0.1
UNLVFresno St.5.8
Boston UniversityHoly Cross5.4
Loyola (MD)American3.6
Mississippi St.South Carolina3.5
ArkansasAlabama-2.0
VanderbiltTennessee-6.8
FurmanThe Citadel12.8
MercerChattanooga2.5
UNCGWestern Carolina11.9
Northwestern St.Stephen F. Austin-7.4
SE LouisianaMcNeese4.2
Texas A&M-CCNew Orleans-0.4
NichollsHouston Baptist10.5
Incarnate WordLamar4.5
Abilene ChristianSam Houston St.8.1
SouthernAlabama A&M6.4
Alcorn St.Alabama St.5.7

January 12, 2021

PiRate Ratings 2020-2021 Final College Football Rankings

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:50 am
#Team
1Alabama
2Ohio St.
3Clemson
4Oklahoma
5Georgia
6Texas A&M
7Iowa St.
8Notre Dame
9Iowa
10Texas
11Florida
12Wisconsin
13BYU
14Cincinnati
15Oklahoma St.
16Indiana
17U S C
18Oregon
19N. Carolina
20Northwestern
21Auburn
22L S U
23Penn St.
24T C U
25Miami (Fla.)
26UCF
27Arizona St.
28Kentucky
29Utah
30Ole Miss
31Washington
32Minnesota
33U C L A
34Coastal Car.
35Louisville
36Pittsburgh
37Miss. St.
38Tennessee
39Nebraska
40Louisiana
41Michigan
42Wake Forest
43California
44Buffalo
45W. Virginia
46Virginia
47Virginia Tech
48Missouri
49Tulane
50Boise St.
51Stanford
52Boston Coll.
53Tulsa
54Memphis
55Appal. St.
56Purdue
57Oregon St.
58Arkansas
59Washington St.
60Baylor
61Liberty
62NC State
63Houston
64Air Force
65Colorado
66San Jose St.
67Illinois
68Kansas St.
69Rutgers
70SMU
71S. Carolina
72Ball St.
73Michigan St.
74San Diego St.
75Texas Tech
76Nevada
77Marshall
78Florida St.
79U A B
80Wyoming
81Army
82Georgia Sou.
83Georgia Tech
84Hawaii
85E. Carolina
86Maryland
87Ohio
88Arizona
89Fresno St.
90Western Mich.
91Georgia St.
92Toledo
93Troy
94Central Mich.
95Miami (O)
96Navy
97W. Kentucky
98Kent St.
99Syracuse
100Duke
101Colorado St.
102Vanderbilt
103Arkansas St.
104Temple
105Rice
106USF
107Fla. Atlantic
108New Mexico
109Florida Int’l.
110U T S A
111Eastern Mich.
112Utah St.
113La. Tech
114Charlotte
115Middle Tenn.
116Southern Miss.
117S. Alabama
118N. Illinois
119Texas St.
120U N L V
121Kansas
122North Texas
123U T E P
124Akron
125UL-Monroe
126Bowling Green
127Mass.

December 20, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Football For The Playoffs and Bowls

Spreads for Bowls and Playoff Semifinals

TeamTeamPiRateMeanBias
Dec. 21Myrtle Beach
Appalachian St.North Texas28.027.328.7

Dec. 22Idaho Potato
TulaneNevada9.18.28.2

Dec 22Boca Raton
Central FloridaBYU-3.3-3.2-3.2

Dec 23New Orleans
Louisiana TechGeorgia Southern-8.6-8.8-8.8

Dec 23Montgomery
MemphisFlorida Atlantic18.516.416.4

Dec 24New Mexico
HoustonHawaii10.68.910.2

Dec 25Camellia
MarshallBuffalo-6.3-7.0-7.5

Dec 26Gasparilla
South CarolinaUAB3.61.43.2

Dec 26Cure
Coastal CarolinaLiberty7.04.66.9

Dec 26First Responder
UTSALouisiana-20.5-19.7-19.9

Dec 26LendingTree
Western Ky.Georgia St.-0.6-0.4-1.5

Dec 29Cheez-It
Miami (Fla.)Oklahoma St.-2.70.5-1.3

Dec 29Alamo
TexasColorado17.015.018.1

Dec 30Duke’s Mayo
Wake ForestWisconsin-13.7-11.2-13.9

Dec 30Music City
IowaMissouri15.615.716.7

Dec 30Cotton
OklahomaFlorida-1.2-1.2-1.6

Dec 31Armed Forces
TulsaMississippi St.-1.0-1.6-2.7

Dec 31Liberty
Army (replaces Tenn.)West Va.-10.0-8.2-10.0

Dec 31Arizona
Ball St.San Jose St.-1.6-3.3-1.9

Dec 31Texas
TCUArkansas8.36.68.6

Jan 1Peach
GeorgiaCincinnati7.87.78.8

Jan 1Citrus
AuburnNorthwestern3.32.40.7

Jan 1Rose *
AlabamaNotre Dame17.017.919.0

Jan 1Sugar
ClemsonOhio St.0.01.70.2

Jan 2Gator
N.C. StateKentucky-7.7-7.0-8.3

Jan 2Outback
Ole MissIndiana-8.0-9.4-10.3

Jan 2Fiesta
OregonIowa St.-3.4-4.2-4.1

Jan 2Orange
Texas A&MNorth Carolina2.12.12.5

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Alabama139.5140.2141.5140.4SEC-W
2Clemson131.1131.9133.3132.1ACC
3Ohio St.131.1130.2133.2131.5BTen-E
4Georgia124.4123.6125.2124.4SEC-E
5Florida123.1122.8124.0123.3SEC-E
6Notre Dame122.5122.3122.5122.4ACC
7Texas A&M121.9122.0122.8122.2SEC-W
8Oklahoma121.9121.5122.3121.9B12
9Iowa119.7119.3121.4120.1BTen-W
10Iowa St.120.2119.4120.4120.0B12
11N. Carolina119.8119.9120.3120.0ACC
12Wisconsin118.9117.2120.0118.7BTen-W
13Indiana117.1117.5119.6118.1BTen-E
14Cincinnati118.1117.4118.0117.8AAC
15Texas117.0115.8116.9116.6B12
16U S C117.3114.7116.3116.1P12-S
17Oregon116.8115.2116.3116.1P12-N
18Auburn115.6114.7115.7115.3SEC-W
19BYU114.7114.5114.9114.7Ind.
20L S U114.2113.4115.1114.2SEC-W
21Penn St.114.3113.1115.1114.2BTen-E
22Oklahoma St.114.5113.2113.6113.8B12
23Northwestern112.2112.3114.9113.2BTen-W
24Miami (Fla.)110.8112.7111.3111.6ACC
25UCF110.4110.3110.7110.5AAC
26T C U110.5109.3110.9110.3B12
27Arizona St.110.2109.7110.0109.9P12-S
28Utah109.3109.4110.2109.6P12-S
29Kentucky109.1109.0110.1109.4SEC-E
30Washington109.4108.0109.8109.1P12-N
31Ole Miss109.1108.1109.3108.8SEC-W
32Minnesota107.5108.0109.2108.2BTen-W
33Coastal Car.107.0107.6107.7107.4SUN-E
34U C L A108.0106.9107.0107.3P12-S
35Louisville107.1107.0106.5106.8ACC
36Pittsburgh105.5106.4105.8105.9ACC
37Tennessee106.0105.3105.9105.7SEC-E
38Miss. St.105.6105.0106.2105.6SEC-W
39Nebraska105.2104.7106.5105.5BTen-W
40Michigan105.4104.5106.3105.4BTen-E
41Louisiana105.7105.3105.3105.4SUN-W
42Wake Forest104.7105.5105.5105.3ACC
43California105.4105.1105.1105.2P12-N
44Virginia104.6105.0105.1104.9ACC
45Buffalo104.3105.2104.9104.8MAC-E
46W. Virginia104.7104.4104.9104.7B12
47Virginia Tech103.9104.5104.9104.4ACC
48Tulane104.3104.3103.9104.2AAC
49Missouri104.1103.7104.7104.2SEC-E
50Boise St.104.2104.2103.8104.1MWC-M
51Stanford104.6103.1104.4104.0P12-N
52Boston Coll.103.6103.9104.2103.9ACC
53Tulsa104.6103.4103.5103.8AAC
54Purdue103.4103.5104.1103.7BTen-W
55Memphis104.4103.1102.6103.4AAC
56Appal. St.103.4102.9103.5103.3SUN-E
57Oregon St.103.0102.6102.0102.5P12-N
58Arkansas102.2102.8102.4102.5SEC-W
59Washington St.102.6101.2102.9102.2P12-N
60Baylor102.3101.8102.1102.1B12
61NC State101.4101.9101.8101.7ACC
62Houston102.3100.9101.2101.5AAC
63Liberty100.0102.9100.8101.2Ind.
64Air Force100.9101.6100.7101.1MWC-M
65Colorado101.0101.899.8100.9P12-S
66San Jose St.99.9101.6100.5100.7MWC-W
67Illinois100.499.7101.1100.4BTen-W
68Kansas St.100.499.6100.7100.2B12
69Rutgers100.499.499.899.9BTen-E
70SMU100.199.699.299.7AAC
71S. Carolina100.598.899.799.7SEC-E
72Michigan St.99.198.699.799.2BTen-E
73San Diego St.98.599.598.898.9MWC-W
74Texas Tech98.897.698.998.4B12
75Ball St.98.298.398.698.4MAC-W
76Marshall98.098.297.497.8CUSA-E
77Florida St.97.997.297.797.6ACC
78U A B96.997.496.596.9CUSA-W
79Wyoming96.097.196.496.5MWC-M
80Nevada95.296.195.695.7MWC-W
81Army94.796.194.995.3Ind.
82Georgia Tech95.795.294.895.2ACC
83E. Carolina95.695.494.595.2AAC
84Maryland95.295.295.095.1BTen-E
85Ohio94.495.195.394.9MAC-E
86Arizona94.192.592.993.2P12-S
87Georgia Sou.92.793.593.093.1SUN-E
88Fresno St.92.793.292.292.7MWC-W
89Hawaii92.793.092.092.5MWC-W
90Western Mich.91.693.392.492.4MAC-W
91Toledo92.193.291.992.4MAC-W
92Troy91.892.992.292.3SUN-E
93Central Mich.92.092.192.292.1MAC-W
94Georgia St.91.892.192.392.1SUN-E
95Miami (O)92.491.592.192.0MAC-E
96Navy92.791.490.791.6AAC
97W. Kentucky91.291.790.891.2CUSA-E
98Kent St.91.290.790.790.9MAC-E
99Syracuse90.191.390.890.8ACC
100Duke90.590.389.390.0ACC
101Colorado St.89.590.389.589.8MWC-M
102Vanderbilt88.387.587.487.8SEC-E
103Arkansas St.87.688.287.087.6SUN-W
104Temple87.987.686.387.3AAC
105Rice88.186.287.287.2CUSA-W
106USF87.886.586.286.8AAC
107Fla. Atlantic85.986.886.286.3CUSA-E
108New Mexico86.086.885.486.1MWC-M
109Florida Int’l.85.785.585.385.5CUSA-E
110U T S A85.285.685.485.4CUSA-W
111Eastern Mich.83.885.684.584.6MAC-W
112Utah St.84.484.183.584.0MWC-M
113La. Tech83.684.283.683.8CUSA-W
114Charlotte83.583.683.283.4CUSA-E
115Middle Tenn.82.282.582.382.3CUSA-E
116Southern Miss.82.382.881.882.3CUSA-W
117S. Alabama81.882.781.782.1SUN-W
118N. Illinois80.782.080.881.2MAC-W
119Texas St.81.081.580.280.9SUN-W
120U N L V79.580.678.779.6MWC-W
121Kansas78.778.077.478.1B12
122North Texas75.475.674.875.3CUSA-W
123U T E P67.970.368.068.7CUSA-W
124Akron67.569.266.167.6MAC-E
125UL-Monroe68.067.966.567.5SUN-W
126Bowling Green65.166.461.864.4MAC-E
127Mass.61.767.559.963.0Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgAACOverall
Cincinnati118.1117.4118.0117.86-09-0
UCF110.4110.3110.7110.55-36-3
Tulane104.3104.3103.9104.23-56-5
Tulsa104.6103.4103.5103.86-06-2
Memphis104.4103.1102.6103.45-37-3
Houston102.3100.9101.2101.53-33-4
SMU100.199.699.299.74-37-3
E. Carolina95.695.494.595.23-43-6
Navy92.791.490.791.63-43-7
Temple87.987.686.387.31-61-6
USF87.886.586.286.80-71-8
AAC Avg.100.7100.099.7100.1

Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgACCOverall
Clemson131.1131.9133.3132.18-110-1
Notre Dame122.5122.3122.5122.49-010-1
N. Carolina119.8119.9120.3120.07-38-3
Miami (Fla.)110.8112.7111.3111.67-28-2
Louisville107.1107.0106.5106.83-74-7
Pittsburgh105.5106.4105.8105.95-56-5
Wake Forest104.7105.5105.5105.33-44-4
Virginia104.6105.0105.1104.94-55-5
Virginia Tech103.9104.5104.9104.45-55-6
Boston Coll.103.6103.9104.2103.95-56-5
NC State101.4101.9101.8101.77-38-3
Florida St.97.997.297.797.62-63-6
Georgia Tech95.795.294.895.23-63-7
Syracuse90.191.390.890.81-91-10
Duke90.590.389.390.01-92-9
ACC Avg.106.0106.3106.2106.2

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgB12Overall
Oklahoma121.9121.5122.3121.96-28-2
Iowa St.120.2119.4120.4120.08-18-3
Texas117.0115.8116.9116.65-36-3
Oklahoma St.114.5113.2113.6113.86-37-3
T C U110.5109.3110.9110.35-46-4
W. Virginia104.7104.4104.9104.74-45-4
Baylor102.3101.8102.1102.12-72-7
Kansas St.100.499.6100.7100.24-54-6
Texas Tech98.897.698.998.43-64-6
Kansas78.778.077.478.10-80-9
Big 12 Avg.106.9106.1106.8106.6

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Ohio St.131.1130.2133.2131.55-06-0
Indiana117.1117.5119.6118.16-16-1
Penn St.114.3113.1115.1114.24-54-5
Michigan105.4104.5106.3105.42-42-4
Rutgers100.499.499.899.93-63-6
Michigan St.99.198.699.799.22-52-5
Maryland95.295.295.095.12-32-3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Iowa119.7119.3121.4120.16-26-2
Wisconsin118.9117.2120.0118.73-33-3
Northwestern112.2112.3114.9113.26-16-2
Minnesota107.5108.0109.2108.23-43-4
Nebraska105.2104.7106.5105.53-53-5
Purdue103.4103.5104.1103.72-42-4
Illinois100.499.7101.1100.42-62-6
Big Ten Avg.109.3108.8110.4109.5

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
Marshall98.098.297.497.84-17-2
W. Kentucky91.291.790.891.24-35-6
Fla. Atlantic85.986.886.286.34-25-3
Florida Int’l.85.785.585.385.50-30-5
Charlotte83.583.683.283.42-22-4
Middle Tenn.82.282.582.382.32-43-6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
U A B96.997.496.596.93-16-3
Rice88.186.287.287.22-32-3
U T S A85.285.685.485.45-27-4
La. Tech83.684.283.683.84-25-4
Southern Miss.82.382.881.882.32-43-7
North Texas75.475.674.875.33-44-5
U T E P67.970.368.068.70-43-5
CUSA Avg.85.185.484.885.1

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
BYU114.7114.5114.9114.7x10-1
Liberty100.0102.9100.8101.2x9-1
Army94.796.194.995.3x9-2
Mass.61.767.559.963.0x0-4
Ind. Avg.92.895.392.693.6

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Buffalo104.3105.2104.9104.85-05-1
Ohio94.495.195.394.92-12-1
Miami (O)92.491.592.192.02-12-1
Kent St.91.290.790.790.93-13-1
Akron67.569.266.167.61-51-5
Bowling Green65.166.461.864.40-50-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Ball St.98.298.398.698.45-16-1
Western Mich.91.693.392.492.44-24-2
Toledo92.193.291.992.44-24-2
Central Mich.92.092.192.292.13-33-3
Eastern Mich.83.885.684.584.62-42-4
N. Illinois80.782.080.881.20-60-6
MAC Avg.87.888.587.688.0

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Boise St.104.2104.2103.8104.15-05-2
Air Force100.9101.6100.7101.12-23-3
Wyoming96.097.196.496.52-42-4
Colorado St.89.590.389.589.81-31-3
New Mexico86.086.885.486.12-52-5
Utah St.84.484.183.584.01-51-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
San Jose St.99.9101.6100.5100.76-07-0
San Diego St.98.599.598.898.94-24-4
Nevada95.296.195.695.76-26-2
Fresno St.92.793.292.292.73-33-3
Hawaii92.793.092.092.54-44-4
U N L V79.580.678.779.60-60-6
MWC Avg.93.394.093.193.5

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Oregon116.8115.2116.3116.13-24-2
Washington109.4108.0109.8109.13-13-1
California105.4105.1105.1105.21-31-3
Stanford104.6103.1104.4104.04-24-2
Oregon St.103.0102.6102.0102.52-52-5
Washington St.102.6101.2102.9102.21-31-3

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
U S C117.3114.7116.3116.15-05-1
Arizona St.110.2109.7110.0109.92-22-2
Utah109.3109.4110.2109.63-23-2
U C L A108.0106.9107.0107.33-43-4
Colorado101.0101.899.8100.93-14-1
Arizona94.192.592.993.20-50-5
P12 Avg.106.8105.8106.4106.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Georgia124.4123.6125.2124.47-27-2
Florida123.1122.8124.0123.38-28-3
Kentucky109.1109.0110.1109.44-64-6
Tennessee106.0105.3105.9105.73-73-7
Missouri104.1103.7104.7104.25-55-5
S. Carolina100.598.899.799.72-82-8
Vanderbilt88.387.587.487.80-90-9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Alabama139.5140.2141.5140.410-011-0
Texas A&M121.9122.0122.8122.28-18-1
Auburn115.6114.7115.7115.36-46-4
L S U114.2113.4115.1114.25-55-5
Ole Miss109.1108.1109.3108.84-54-5
Miss. St.105.6105.0106.2105.63-73-7
Arkansas102.2102.8102.4102.53-73-7
SEC Avg.111.7111.2112.1111.7

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Coastal Car.107.0107.6107.7107.48-011-0
Appal. St.103.4102.9103.5103.36-28-3
Georgia Sou.92.793.593.093.14-47-5
Georgia St.91.892.192.392.14-45-4
Troy91.892.992.292.33-65-6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Louisiana105.7105.3105.3105.47-19-1
Arkansas St.87.688.287.087.62-64-7
S. Alabama81.882.781.782.13-54-7
Texas St.81.081.580.280.92-62-10
UL-Monroe68.067.966.567.50-70-10
Sun Avg.91.191.490.991.2

Conference Ratings

#LeagueAvg
1SEC111.7
2BTen109.5
3B12106.6
4P12106.4
5ACC106.2
6AAC100.1
7Ind.93.6
8MWC93.5
9Sun91.2
10MAC88.0
11CUSA85.1

December 18, 2020

College Football TV Schedule For This Weekend

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:26 am

Up to date as of Friday morning, 11 AM EST

Friday, December 18
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
7:00 PMCBSSN *MarshallUAB
7:30 PMESPN *Buffalo (n)Ball St.
7:30 PMBTNRutgersNebraska
8:00 PMFOX *USCOregon
Saturday, December 19
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMABC *Iowa St. (n)Oklahoma
12:00 PMFOX *Ohio St. (n)Northwestern
12:00 PMESPNTennesseeTexas A&M
12:00 PMACCNWake ForestFlorida St.
3:00 PMCBSSNArmyAir Force
3:30 PMSECNLSUOle Miss
3:30 PMSECNAMississippi St.Missouri
4:00 PMABC *Notre Dame (n)Clemson
4:00 PMBTNWisconsinMinnesota
5:30 PMFS1Penn St.Illinois
7:00 PMESPNUCLAStanford
8:00 PMABC *CincinnatiTulsa
8:00 PMCBS *Alabama (n)Florida
10:30 PMESPNOregon St.Arizona St.
(n) Neutral Site
* Conf. Championship

PiRate Picks for December 18-21, 2020

A General Malaise

December in the sports wagering world has been about as sickly as the nation and world as a whole, but unfortunately, Pfizer and Moderna are not going to issue sports wagering vaccines to turn losers into winners.

How crazy have things been lately? Look at the most incredible Monday Night Football game in the 51 year history of the event. Baltimore was a 3 1/2 point favorite over Cleveland, and the Ravens led the Browns by three points after a brilliant drive that led to a long field goal. The Browns had one final play to hope for a miracle touchdown or to hope Baltimore committed a defensive 15-yard penalty that would lead to an untimed down and possible field goal to force overtime.

You’ve no doubt seen the dozen lateral play. Unless a large marching band is on the field, the play doesn’t work, because the offense needs a giant tuba player to set an important screen. The 99% of the other times, there are a dozen or so laterals that are fun to watch for 20-30 seconds. The play ends, and the game is over.

Well, this time it was different for the first time in another way. Cleveland ran out of real estate, and the last lateral led to a safety, making the final score a five-point spread. Unlike when a game outcome changes at the end when a team chooses to run the clock play one foot from scoring a touchdown that would change the margin winner or the total, this was totally different. 9,999 times out of 10,000, that part of the wagering public that was already counting their winnings with Cleveland covering, would have actually got those winnings. This was that one other time. Millions and millions of dollars changed on that one crazy play. Local sports talk radio in a state with legalized wagering took time out from coaching search speculation to talk with representatives of MGM and Fan Duel to get the juicy details.

As you know, we at the PiRate Ratings never wager real money on our selections and always recommend that you do the same if you are relying on our selections as real advice. We do this just for the fun of it. In past years, we have enjoyed some spectacular imaginary seasons. We’ve had a couple clinkers as well. This year, we had an imaginary profit entering Thanksgiving, but the last three weeks have seen just enough losses turn the profit to a minor loss for the season. And, unlike the one time Cleveland-Baltimore deal, we have seen our last selection of the week lose after two-thirds of the parlay had won. That last third has done us in. This past week, it was the Giants-Cardinals game. The Giants did us in the week before with the upset win at Seattle. On Thanksgiving, Dallas and Washington couldn’t get their offenses rolling enough.

This week, we joked among ourselves (only crazies like us would laugh at this), wondering if we should change the order of our selections, so that the final NFL game wouldn’t spoil the final third of a parlay. But, then we figured it would only infect the entire card. So, we continue to disbelieve the voodoo that somebody has been doing so well. We’ll call that nemesis, “The Wizard of Laterals.” The talisman that keeps him at bay is “The Gold Tuba.”

Here are this week’s selections. Remember, these are for entertainment purposes only, and we urge you not to wager real money on what you read, even if it’s your Christmas bonus. Save that money to pay for the expensive food on that diet you will begin in two weeks.

Dec 18-21
1. College 6 1/2 point Teaser-120
SelectionOpponentSpread
OklahomaIowa St.+1
Ohio St.Northwestern-13 1/2

2. College 10-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
UtahWashington St.– 1/2
Air ForceArmy+7 1/2
Ole MissLSU+7 1/2

3. College 10-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MissouriMississippi St.+8 1/2
ClemsonNotre Dame– 1/2
MinnesotaWisconsin+22 1/2

4. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Penn St.Illinois-5 1/2
AlabamaFlorida-7
CincinnatiTulsa-4 1/2

5. College Money Line Parlay+138.40
Must WinOpponentSpread
BuffaloBall St.
USCOregon+138.40
Texas A&MTennessee

6. College Money Line Parlay+187.04
Must WinOpponentSpread
MarshallUAB
OklahomaIowa St.+187.04
ClemsonNotre Dame

7. NFL 6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Green BayCarolina-2
IndianapolisHouston-1 1/2

8. NFL 6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
TennesseeDetroit-6
New EnglandMiami+7 1/2

9. NFL 6 1/2-point Teaser-120
SelectionOpponentSpread
Kansas CityNew Orleans+3 1/2
PittsburghCincinnati-6 1/2

10. NFL Money Line Parlay+134.81
Must WinOpponentSpread
Green BayCarolina
TennesseeDetroit+134.81
Kansas CityNew Orleans

11. NFL Money Line Parlay+148.28
Must WinOpponentSpread
IndianapolisHouston
ArizonaPhiladelphia+148.28
BuffaloDenver

December 13, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Football For December 17-19, 2020

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:25 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

We apologize for having to totally re-work this section, but the crazy off-the-cuff scheduling and cancellations have done a number on all of the power ratings specialists throughout the land. We keep in touch with many of our brethren, and they too are having to deal with hourly changes to the sports schedules.

This schedule is up to date as of Monday afternoon, 12/14/2020 at 4:00 PM EST.

Monday night update: Vanderbilt & Georgia game cancelled. Georgia is attempting to find a replacement team from outside the SEC.

SMU has opted out of Saturday’s Frisco Bowl. A replacement will be attempted by the bowl.

Tuesday update–The Frisco Bowl has been cancelled. Troy and UL-Monroe have cancelled. And, the Old Oaken Bucket Game–Indiana and Purdue has been cancelled. Michigan’s game with Iowa has been cancelled. The Michigan State-Maryland game has been cancelled.

Thursday update– The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana has been cancelled.

Friday update–Florida State and Wake Forest game has been cancelled.

Regular Season Games
Thursday, December 17
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
TroyUL-Monroe25.326.527.3

Friday, December 18
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
IndianaPurdue14.715.016.5
RutgersNebraska-2.9-3.4-4.8

Saturday, December 19
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Wake ForestFlorida St.7.89.48.8
WisconsinMinnesota14.011.813.5
Penn St.Illinois10.810.210.6
IowaMichigan16.316.817.0
MarylandMichigan St.-2.4-1.9-3.2
ArmyAir Force-5.3-4.6-5.3
UtahWashington St.6.48.06.7
UCLAStanford5.36.14.9
Oregon St.Arizona St.-3.2-2.7-3.6
GeorgiaVanderbilt38.138.039.8
TennesseeTexas A&M-13.8-14.4-14.4
LSUOle Miss6.87.27.9
Mississippi St.Missouri0.60.20.2

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

Friday, December 18
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
Buffalo (n)Ball St.11.312.511.9
MarshallUAB6.26.26.5
USCOregon5.24.24.8

Saturday, December 19
HomeVisitorsPiRateMeanBias
CincinnatiTulsa17.218.118.8
Clemson (n)Notre Dame5.86.88.0
Iowa St. (n)Oklahoma-1.1-1.3-0.9
Ohio St. (n)Northwestern19.518.519.2
Alabama (n)Florida18.119.719.9
Coastal CarolinaLouisiana3.34.34.5
San Jose St. (n)Boise St.-10.4-8.5-9.5
(n): Neutral Site

BOWL GAME

Frisco BowlCancelled
TeamTeamPiRateMeanBias
SMUUTSA15.915.014.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvg.Conference
1Alabama140.4141.3142.7141.5SEC-W
2Ohio St.131.4130.5133.7131.9BTen-E
3Clemson129.2130.0131.4130.2ACC
4Georgia124.4123.6125.2124.4SEC-E
5Notre Dame124.4124.2124.4124.3ACC
6Florida122.2121.7122.8122.2SEC-E
7Texas A&M121.6121.6122.3121.8SEC-W
8Oklahoma121.6121.1121.8121.5B12
9Iowa St.120.5119.8120.9120.4B12
10Iowa119.7119.3121.4120.1BTen-W
11N. Carolina119.8119.9120.3120.0ACC
12Wisconsin119.7118.0120.9119.5BTen-W
13Cincinnati119.2118.7119.4119.1AAC
14Indiana117.1117.5119.6118.1BTen-E
15U S C118.6116.0117.7117.5P12-S
16Texas117.0115.8116.9116.6B12
17Auburn115.6114.7115.7115.3SEC-W
18Oregon115.5113.9114.9114.8P12-N
19BYU114.7114.5114.9114.7Ind.
20L S U114.3113.6115.4114.4SEC-W
21Oklahoma St.114.5113.2113.6113.8B12
22Northwestern111.9112.0114.4112.8BTen-W
23Miami (Fla.)110.8112.7111.3111.6ACC
24Penn St.111.8110.5112.4111.6BTen-E
25UCF110.4110.3110.7110.5AAC
26T C U110.5109.3110.9110.3B12
27Kentucky109.1109.0110.1109.4SEC-E
28Washington109.4108.0109.8109.1P12-N
29Arizona St.109.2108.5108.8108.8P12-S
30Ole Miss109.0107.9109.0108.6SEC-W
31Utah108.2108.3108.9108.5P12-S
32U C L A108.2107.3107.4107.6P12-S
33Buffalo106.9108.0107.7107.5MAC-E
34Coastal Car.107.0107.6107.7107.4SUN-E
35Minnesota106.7107.2108.3107.4BTen-W
36Boise St.107.2107.2106.9107.1MWC-M
37Louisville107.1107.0106.5106.8ACC
38Tennessee106.3105.7106.4106.1SEC-E
39Pittsburgh105.5106.4105.8105.9ACC
40Missouri105.3105.0106.1105.5SEC-E
41Michigan105.4104.5106.3105.4BTen-E
42Louisiana105.7105.3105.3105.4SUN-W
43Nebraska105.0104.5106.3105.3BTen-W
44Wake Forest104.7105.5105.5105.3ACC
45California105.4105.1105.1105.2P12-N
46Virginia104.6105.0105.1104.9ACC
47W. Virginia104.7104.4104.9104.7B12
48Virginia Tech103.9104.5104.9104.4ACC
49Miss. St.104.4103.7104.8104.3SEC-W
50Tulane104.3104.3103.9104.2AAC
51Boston Coll.103.6103.9104.2103.9ACC
52Stanford104.4102.7104.0103.7P12-N
53Oregon St.104.0103.8103.2103.7P12-N
54Purdue103.4103.5104.1103.7BTen-W
55Washington St.103.7102.3104.2103.4P12-N
56Memphis104.4103.1102.6103.4AAC
57Appal. St.103.4102.9103.5103.3SUN-E
58Illinois102.9102.3103.8103.0BTen-W
59Tulsa103.5102.1102.1102.5AAC
60Arkansas102.2102.8102.4102.5SEC-W
61Baylor102.3101.8102.1102.1B12
62Air Force101.7102.4101.7101.9MWC-M
63NC State101.4101.9101.8101.7ACC
64Houston102.3100.9101.2101.5AAC
65Liberty100.0102.9100.8101.2Ind.
66Colorado101.0101.899.8100.9P12-S
67Kansas St.100.499.6100.7100.2B12
68Rutgers100.699.6100.0100.1BTen-E
69SMU100.199.699.299.7AAC
70S. Carolina100.598.899.799.7SEC-E
71Marshall99.699.999.299.5CUSA-E
72Michigan St.99.198.699.799.2BTen-E
73San Diego St.98.599.598.898.9MWC-W
74Texas Tech98.897.698.998.4B12
75San Jose St.96.998.697.497.6MWC-W
76Florida St.97.997.297.797.6ACC
77Wyoming96.097.196.496.5MWC-M
78Nevada95.296.195.695.7MWC-W
79Ball St.95.695.595.895.7MAC-W
80U A B95.395.794.795.2CUSA-W
81Georgia Tech95.795.294.895.2ACC
82E. Carolina95.695.494.595.2AAC
83Maryland95.295.295.095.1BTen-E
84Ohio94.495.195.394.9MAC-E
85Army93.995.393.994.4Ind.
86Arizona94.192.592.993.2P12-S
87Georgia Sou.92.793.593.093.1SUN-E
88Fresno St.92.793.292.292.7MWC-W
89Hawaii92.793.092.092.5MWC-W
90Western Mich.91.693.392.492.4MAC-W
91Toledo92.193.291.992.4MAC-W
92Troy91.892.992.292.3SUN-E
93Central Mich.92.092.192.292.1MAC-W
94Georgia St.91.892.192.392.1SUN-E
95Miami (O)92.491.592.192.0MAC-E
96Navy92.791.490.791.6AAC
97W. Kentucky91.291.790.891.2CUSA-E
98Kent St.91.290.790.790.9MAC-E
99Syracuse90.191.390.890.8ACC
100Duke90.590.389.390.0ACC
101Colorado St.89.590.389.589.8MWC-M
102Vanderbilt88.387.587.487.8SEC-E
103Arkansas St.87.688.287.087.6SUN-W
104Temple87.987.686.387.3AAC
105Rice88.186.287.287.2CUSA-W
106USF87.886.586.286.8AAC
107Fla. Atlantic85.986.886.286.3CUSA-E
108New Mexico86.086.885.486.1MWC-M
109Florida Int’l.85.785.585.385.5CUSA-E
110U T S A85.285.685.485.4CUSA-W
111Eastern Mich.83.885.684.584.6MAC-W
112Utah St.84.484.183.584.0MWC-M
113La. Tech83.684.283.683.8CUSA-W
114Charlotte83.583.683.283.4CUSA-E
115Middle Tenn.82.282.582.382.3CUSA-E
116Southern Miss.82.382.881.882.3CUSA-W
117S. Alabama81.882.781.782.1SUN-W
118N. Illinois80.782.080.881.2MAC-W
119Texas St.81.081.580.280.9SUN-W
120U N L V79.580.678.779.6MWC-W
121Kansas78.778.077.478.1B12
122North Texas75.475.674.875.3CUSA-W
123U T E P67.970.368.068.7CUSA-W
124Akron67.569.266.167.6MAC-E
125UL-Monroe68.067.966.567.5SUN-W
126Bowling Green65.166.461.864.4MAC-E
127Mass.61.767.559.963.0Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgAACOverall
Cincinnati119.2118.7119.4119.16-08-0
UCF110.4110.3110.7110.55-36-3
Tulane104.3104.3103.9104.23-56-5
Memphis104.4103.1102.6103.45-37-3
Tulsa103.5102.1102.1102.56-06-1
Houston102.3100.9101.2101.53-33-4
SMU100.199.699.299.74-37-3
E. Carolina95.695.494.595.23-43-6
Navy92.791.490.791.63-43-7
Temple87.987.686.387.31-61-6
USF87.886.586.286.80-71-8
AAC Avg.100.7100.099.7100.1

Atlantic Coast Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgACCOverall
Clemson129.2130.0131.4130.28-19-1
Notre Dame124.4124.2124.4124.39-010-0
N. Carolina119.8119.9120.3120.07-38-3
Miami (Fla.)110.8112.7111.3111.67-28-2
Louisville107.1107.0106.5106.83-74-7
Pittsburgh105.5106.4105.8105.95-56-5
Wake Forest104.7105.5105.5105.33-44-4
Virginia104.6105.0105.1104.94-55-5
Virginia Tech103.9104.5104.9104.45-55-6
Boston Coll.103.6103.9104.2103.95-56-5
NC State101.4101.9101.8101.77-38-3
Florida St.97.997.297.797.62-63-6
Georgia Tech95.795.294.895.23-63-7
Syracuse90.191.390.890.81-91-10
Duke90.590.389.390.01-92-9
ACC Avg.106.0106.3106.2106.2

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgB12Overall
Oklahoma121.6121.1121.8121.56-27-2
Iowa St.120.5119.8120.9120.48-18-2
Texas117.0115.8116.9116.65-36-3
Oklahoma St.114.5113.2113.6113.86-37-3
T C U110.5109.3110.9110.35-46-4
W. Virginia104.7104.4104.9104.74-45-4
Baylor102.3101.8102.1102.12-72-7
Kansas St.100.499.6100.7100.24-54-6
Texas Tech98.897.698.998.43-64-6
Kansas78.778.077.478.10-80-9
Big 12 Avg.106.9106.1106.8106.6

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Ohio St.131.4130.5133.7131.95-05-0
Indiana117.1117.5119.6118.16-16-1
Penn St.111.8110.5112.4111.63-53-5
Michigan105.4104.5106.3105.42-42-4
Rutgers100.699.6100.0100.13-53-5
Michigan St.99.198.699.799.22-52-5
Maryland95.295.295.095.12-32-3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverageBTenOverall
Iowa119.7119.3121.4120.16-26-2
Wisconsin119.7118.0120.9119.52-32-3
Northwestern111.9112.0114.4112.86-16-1
Minnesota106.7107.2108.3107.43-33-3
Nebraska105.0104.5106.3105.32-52-5
Purdue103.4103.5104.1103.72-42-4
Illinois102.9102.3103.8103.02-52-5
Big Ten Avg.109.3108.8110.4109.5

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
Marshall99.699.999.299.54-17-1
W. Kentucky91.291.790.891.24-35-6
Fla. Atlantic85.986.886.286.34-25-3
Florida Int’l.85.785.585.385.50-30-5
Charlotte83.583.683.283.42-22-4
Middle Tenn.82.282.582.382.32-43-6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgCUSAOverall
U A B95.395.794.795.23-15-3
Rice88.186.287.287.22-32-3
U T S A85.285.685.485.45-27-4
La. Tech83.684.283.683.84-25-4
Southern Miss.82.382.881.882.32-43-7
North Texas75.475.674.875.33-44-5
U T E P67.970.368.068.70-43-5
CUSA Avg.85.185.484.885.1

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
BYU114.7114.5114.9114.7x10-1
Liberty100.0102.9100.8101.2x9-1
Army93.995.393.994.4x8-2
Mass.61.767.559.963.0x0-4
Ind. Avg.92.695.192.493.3

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Buffalo106.9108.0107.7107.55-05-0
Ohio94.495.195.394.92-12-1
Miami (O)92.491.592.192.02-12-1
Kent St.91.290.790.790.93-13-1
Akron67.569.266.167.61-51-5
Bowling Green65.166.461.864.40-50-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Ball St.95.695.595.895.75-15-1
Western Mich.91.693.392.492.44-24-2
Toledo92.193.291.992.44-24-2
Central Mich.92.092.192.292.13-33-3
Eastern Mich.83.885.684.584.62-42-4
N. Illinois80.782.080.881.20-60-6
MAC Avg.87.888.587.688.0

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Boise St.107.2107.2106.9107.15-05-1
Air Force101.7102.4101.7101.92-23-2
Wyoming96.097.196.496.52-42-4
Colorado St.89.590.389.589.81-31-3
New Mexico86.086.885.486.12-52-5
Utah St.84.484.183.584.01-51-5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
San Diego St.98.599.598.898.94-24-4
San Jose St.96.998.697.497.66-06-0
Nevada95.296.195.695.76-26-2
Fresno St.92.793.292.292.73-33-3
Hawaii92.793.092.092.54-44-4
U N L V79.580.678.779.60-60-6
MWC Avg.93.394.193.293.5

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
Oregon115.5113.9114.9114.83-23-2
Washington109.4108.0109.8109.13-13-1
California105.4105.1105.1105.21-31-3
Stanford104.4102.7104.0103.73-23-2
Oregon St.104.0103.8103.2103.72-42-4
Washington St.103.7102.3104.2103.41-21-2

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgConf.Overall
U S C118.6116.0117.7117.55-05-0
Arizona St.109.2108.5108.8108.81-21-2
Utah108.2108.3108.9108.52-22-2
U C L A108.2107.3107.4107.63-33-3
Colorado101.0101.899.8100.93-14-1
Arizona94.192.592.993.20-50-5
P12 Avg.106.8105.8106.4106.4

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Georgia124.4123.6125.2124.47-27-2
Florida122.2121.7122.8122.28-28-2
Kentucky109.1109.0110.1109.44-64-6
Tennessee106.3105.7106.4106.13-63-6
Missouri105.3105.0106.1105.55-45-4
S. Carolina100.598.899.799.72-82-8
Vanderbilt88.387.587.487.80-90-9
West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSECOverall
Alabama140.4141.3142.7141.510-010-0
Texas A&M121.6121.6122.3121.87-17-1
Auburn115.6114.7115.7115.36-46-4
L S U114.3113.6115.4114.44-54-5
Ole Miss109.0107.9109.0108.64-44-4
Miss. St.104.4103.7104.8104.32-72-7
Arkansas102.2102.8102.4102.53-73-7
SEC Avg.111.7111.2112.1111.7

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Coastal Car.107.0107.6107.7107.48-011-0
Appal. St.103.4102.9103.5103.36-28-3
Georgia Sou.92.793.593.093.14-47-5
Georgia St.91.892.192.392.14-45-4
Troy91.892.992.292.33-65-6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAvgSBCOverall
Louisiana105.7105.3105.3105.47-19-1
Arkansas St.87.688.287.087.62-64-7
S. Alabama81.882.781.782.13-54-7
Texas St.81.081.580.280.92-62-10
UL-Monroe68.067.966.567.50-70-10
Sun Avg.91.191.490.991.2

Conference Ratings

#LeagueAvg
1SEC111.7
2BTen109.5
3B12106.6
4P12106.4
5ACC106.2
6AAC100.1
7MWC93.5
8Ind.93.3
9Sun91.2
10MAC88.0
11CUSA85.1

The Playoffs–What Will Be This Week & What Should Be

The Playoff Committee won’t adjust this week’s top four teams. Only one of the four from last week played a game this past weekend, and Alabama basically showed the nation that they look like the best team in college football since the 2001 Miami of Florida Hurricanes. If somebody tells you that the playoffs need to be expanded from 4 to either 6, 8, or 12 teams, because Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose St. deserve a chance this year, you should reply that they are incorrect when talking about this year only. If the NCAA Playoff Committee wanted to make any changes to make the 2020-2021 college season end the right way, they should change the number of teams in the playoffs–from four to zero!

Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation. If they played Notre Dame, Ohio State, or Clemson next week, the Tide would be favored by two touchdowns minimum over any of the three contenders. If you are old enough to remember UCLA basketball during the three seasons that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and his additional all-American teammates suited up for the Bruins, the NCAA Tournaments were less eventful than the middle of the season Christmas and New Year’s tournaments. For three years, UCLA was the basketball equivalent of the 1927 New York Yankees. The NCAA Tournament was no different than the Bruin Invitational, as UCLA beat Dayton, North Carolina, and Purdue so handily that the games were not meaningful. Alabama is going to do the same thing this year.

We believe that Clemson will edge Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, as the Tigers almost beat the Irish in South Bend without having Trevor Lawrence available. Notre Dame will assuredly drop to #4 in the playoff rankings, but they will stay in the top 4 to be Sugar Bowl fodder for Alabama. Ohio State and Clemson would then face off in the Rose Bowl. Ten days later, Alabama will run roughshod over the Ohio State-Clemson winner, most likely Clemson, and it will be like the Yankees-Dodgers in the World Series during the 1950’s, with Alabama being the Yankees.

If you ask us whether Ohio State deserves to be in the Playoffs, as they have only played five games, when the Big Ten had previously stated that a team had to play at least six games to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship, we have a somewhat divided opinion. First, we 100% agree that Ohio State should be in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Let’s say that rather than declare the Michigan game postponed, that Ohio State forfeited the game to show a six-game slate. Even with the one loss, Ohio State beats out Indiana on the tiebreaker, and it doesn’t affect their eye test rating. So, the Buckeyes deserve the East Division championship. We kind of compare this to the rule where a Major League batter can be the batting champion even if he fails to get the required 502 plate appearances in a 162-game schedule, if you take his at-bats and include additional outs until you reach the 502 required PA’s. If the batter still has the highest batting average with those outs added, he is the batting champion.

For example, in 1996, legendary hitter Tony Gwynn batted .353, but he only made 498 plate appearances, which did not qualify for the batting crown. He needed four additional plate appearances. With four outs added to Gwynn’s actual record, his batting average dropped to .349, which was still better than the next highest average, Rockies’ star Ellis Burks at .344. So, Gwynn won the batting title at .353.

Likewise, adding one loss to Ohio State’s record still allows the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten East in a tiebreaker with Indiana.

That being said, do we believe that Ohio State is one of the four best teams in the nation this year? The short answer is that our own ratings show the Buckeyes to be the second best team. However, if we were on the Playoff Committee, we would be totally at a loss to separate Ohio State and USC. As for any of the G5 teams, we hate to say it, but none of them can play either Ohio State or USC to within 10 points. A G5 Playoff with Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose State would be quite entertaining and much better TV choices than the bowl games, even the New Year’s Six games. But, the only teams outside the current top four that should be in consideration for the Playoffs are USC and Texas A&M. Additionally, it is more accurate to state that the loser of the ACC Championship Game should be removed in favor of an undefeated USC team this year. A one-loss Texas A&M team that beat Florida and played Alabama better than any other opponent might be the second best team in the nation, and it would be hard to convince us that they don’t belong in the Big Four if the ACC loser loses by a substantial margin.

Here is our belief as to what will happen depending on whether each of the contenders win or lose this week.

Alabama–If the Crimson Tide wins, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed. If the Crimson Tide loses, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #3 seed.

Ohio State–If the Buckeyes win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed. If the Buckeyes lose, they are in a NY6 bowl and not in the playoffs.

Notre Dame–If the Irish win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 seed or Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed if Bama were to lose. If the Irish lose, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed.

Clemson–If the Tigers win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed based on what Ohio State does. If the Tigers lose, they are in the Orange Bowl and not in the playoffs.

Texas A&M–The Aggies must win and then hope for Clemson or Ohio State to lose, possibly Notre Dame to lose by 20 or more points. If the Aggies back into the Playoffs, they will be headed to the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed if Alabama is #1, or to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State or Notre Dame is #1

USC–Notre Dame must beat Clemson, and Northwestern must upset Ohio State, while USC beats Washington by 28 or more points, and Texas A&M doesn’t slaughter Tennessee.

Cincinnati–Clemson, Ohio State, and USC must lose, and maybe even Texas A&M.

Any 2-loss team–We don’t see any scenario where Oklahoma, Iowa State, Florida, or Clemson could make the playoffs with two losses.

December 1, 2020

This Week’s College Football TV Schedule

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:48 pm

As usual in these times, this is an ever-changing schedule. Three games have already been scuttled from the schedule, and there are a few more games in danger of being cancelled. Additionally, we hear that one team is on the brink of closing up shop for the rest of the season due to too many player opt-outs.

Thursday, December 3
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
6:00 PMCBSSNNorth TexasLouisiana Tech
9:30 PMCBSSNUtah St.Air Force
Friday, December 4
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
7:00 PMESPN2Appalachian St.Louisiana
9:30 PMCBSSNUNLVBoise St.
Saturday, December 5
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMABCMichigan St.Ohio St.
12:00 PMFOXKansas St.Texas
12:00 PMESPNAuburnTexas A&M
12:00 PMESPN2TCUOklahoma St.
12:00 PMFS1RutgersPenn St.
12:00 PMCBSSNMiami (O)Kent St.
12:00 PMSECNMissouriArkansas
12:00 PMBTNPurdueNebraska
12:00 PMACCNNorth CarolinaWestern Carolina
2:00 PMESPNUCoastal CarolinaLiberty
2:30 PMNBCNotre DameSyracuse
3:30 PMABCWisconsinIndiana
3:30 PMCBSTennesseeFlorida
3:30 PMESPNIowa St.West Virginia
3:30 PMESPN2NavyTulsa
3:30 PMFS1IllinoisIowa
3:30 PMCBSSNOhioBuffalo
3:30 PMFSNVirginiaBoston College
3:30 PMBTNMichiganMaryland
4:00 PMFOXWashingtonStanford
4:00 PMACCNNC St.Georgia Tech
4:00 PMSECNGeorgiaVanderbilt
5:30 PMESPNUCentral MichiganBall St.
7:00 PMESPNCaliforniaOregon
7:00 PMFS1ArizonaColorado
7:00 PMCBSSNSan Diego St.Colorado St.
7:30 PMABCVirginia TechClemson
7:30 PMSECNKentuckySouth Carolina
8:00 PMCBSLSUAlabama
8:00 PMFOXOklahomaBaylor
8:00 PMACCNDukeMiami (Fla.)
9:00 PMESPNUSMUHouston
10:30 PMESPNUtahOregon St.
10:30 PMFS1Arizona St.UCLA
10:30 PMCBSSNNew MexicoWyoming
5:30 PMESPNUCoastal CarolinaBYU (ADDED)
Sunday, December 6
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
2:30 PM???Middle Tenn.UAB
7:30 PMFS1USCWashington St.

Attention: Normally, we issue our imaginary wagering selections on Thursday mornings, but because we averaged five betting selections wiped out by game cancellations per week in November, and because we don’t have any plays on the two Thursday night games, we will delay our selections this week and publish them Friday afternoon to try to limit the number of games that cancel our selections.

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