PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	Ohio	-19.2	-18.6	-19.6
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	7.8	7.0	7.7
Wednesday	November 20
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Toledo	7.2	7.6	7.9
Miami (O)	Akron	28.6	27.9	30.7
Thursday	November 21
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Tech	North Carolina St.	-1.4	-2.0	-0.8
Friday	November 22
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wyoming	Colorado St.	13.6	12.2	13.5
Saturday	November 23
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Texas St.	32.6	31.4	33.0
Arizona	Utah	-26.6	-25.9	-27.9
Arizona St.	Oregon	-12.5	-13.4	-13.7
Arkansas St.	Georgia Southern	-3.2	-3.0	-3.3
Baylor	Texas	4.9	4.7	4.3
Charlotte	Marshall	-5.1	-4.4	-5.6
Cincinnati	Temple	10.3	10.4	9.5
Colorado	Washington	-14.7	-14.5	-15.9
Connecticut	East Carolina	-10.7	-9.3	-12.1
Florida Int’l.	Miami (Fla.)	-21.9	-21.8	-23.4
Fresno St.	Nevada	9.6	8.9	10.1
Georgia	Texas A&M	12.9	12.8	14.3
Georgia St.	South Alabama	18.7	17.2	18.5
Hawaii	San Diego St.	1.8	1.5	1.0
Indiana	Michigan	-11.4	-10.9	-11.7
Iowa	Illinois	17.8	15.2	18.0
Iowa St.	Kansas	22.7	22.2	23.3
Kent St.	Ball St.	0.0	0.4	0.5
Louisiana	Troy	9.2	8.9	9.8
Louisville	Syracuse	0.9	1.5	1.6
LSU	Arkansas	47.1	45.0	48.0
Maryland	Nebraska	-2.8	-4.4	-3.4
Massachusetts	BYU	-43.3	-42.0	-44.6
Middle Tennessee	Old Dominion	17.3	16.1	16.8
Missouri	Tennessee	3.4	1.0	3.2
Navy	SMU	-4.8	-2.2	-4.6
New Mexico	Air Force	-22.0	-21.4	-24.2
New Mexico St.	UTEP	8.7	6.8	8.1
Northwestern	Minnesota	-14.6	-15.4	-16.0
Notre Dame	Boston College	19.4	18.6	19.2
Ohio St.	Penn St.	19.8	20.0	21.3
Oklahoma	TCU	18.4	15.3	17.6
Rice	North Texas	-4.9	-3.6	-5.7
Rutgers	Michigan St.	-21.5	-20.8	-21.9
South Florida	Memphis	-13.6	-12.8	-14.3
Southern Miss.	Western Kentucky	6.8	4.8	5.6
Stanford	California	0.0	-0.6	-1.0
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	-1.6	-1.1	-2.3
Tulane	Central Florida	-9.5	-8.1	-9.6
Tulsa	Houston	0.6	0.7	0.1
UAB	Louisiana Tech	-4.4	-2.6	-4.1
UL-Monroe	Coastal Carolina	1.4	0.5	0.9
UNLV	San Jose St.	-2.5	-3.0	-3.3
USC	UCLA	12.2	12.9	13.2
Utah St.	Boise St.	-3.6	-4.3	-2.9
UTSA	Florida Atlantic	-19.8	-18.1	-21.3
Virginia	Liberty	18.6	17.4	18.3
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	5.0	5.3	5.6
Wake Forest	Duke	6.2	6.2	6.5
Washington St.	Oregon St.	15.1	13.3	15.7
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	-5.8	-6.7	-6.0
Wisconsin	Purdue	19.5	19.4	20.0

 

FBS vs.	FCS	PiRate
Alabama	Western Carolina	56
Auburn	Samford	49
Kentucky	UT-Martin	29
Mississippi St.	Abilene Christian	35
North Carolina	Mercer	38
Vanderbilt	East Tennessee	21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	140.0	139.2	141.3	140.2
2	Clemson	137.6	135.7	138.9	137.4
3	L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8
4	Alabama	128.9	125.7	129.4	128.0
5	Georgia	127.9	126.2	128.3	127.5
6	Utah	126.6	125.6	127.5	126.6
7	Michigan	125.6	124.3	126.0	125.3
8	Florida	125.6	123.0	125.4	124.6
9	Penn St.	123.2	122.2	123.0	122.8
10	Oklahoma	123.1	122.3	122.6	122.7
11	Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0
12	Auburn	122.5	120.7	122.1	121.8
13	Wisconsin	120.5	120.2	120.5	120.4
14	Minnesota	118.8	118.5	118.5	118.6
15	Iowa	118.9	117.3	119.0	118.4
16	Notre Dame	118.8	117.6	118.8	118.4
17	Texas A&M	117.9	116.4	117.0	117.1
18	Iowa St.	115.4	116.0	115.8	115.7
19	Washington	114.1	113.8	115.1	114.3
20	Baylor	113.0	113.0	112.3	112.8
21	Washington St.	112.1	111.3	112.5	112.0
22	Central Florida	111.8	111.1	112.3	111.7
23	U S C	110.6	111.1	111.3	111.0
24	Indiana	111.3	110.4	111.3	111.0
25	Texas	110.5	110.8	110.5	110.6
26	Oklahoma St.	110.4	111.1	110.1	110.5
27	Kansas St.	110.6	110.4	110.4	110.5
28	Mississippi St.	109.8	106.5	113.7	110.0
29	Tennessee	110.2	110.0	109.5	109.9
30	Missouri	110.6	108.0	109.7	109.4
31	Kentucky	109.8	108.5	108.7	109.0
32	Miami (Fla.)	108.6	108.3	109.8	108.9
33	Virginia Tech	108.4	108.4	109.3	108.7
34	T C U	107.7	110.0	108.0	108.6
35	South Carolina	109.2	107.4	108.2	108.3
36	Michigan St.	108.7	107.7	107.9	108.1
37	Memphis	107.5	107.6	108.6	107.9
38	Appalachian St.	107.9	107.2	107.5	107.5
39	Virginia	107.4	107.3	107.4	107.4
40	Ole Miss	107.3	106.6	107.4	107.1
41	Cincinnati	106.7	106.2	106.9	106.6
42	Boise St.	106.2	106.4	106.3	106.3
43	North Carolina	105.8	105.6	106.5	106.0
44	Pittsburgh	105.9	105.5	106.2	105.9
45	Texas Tech	105.9	106.3	105.2	105.8
46	Arizona St.	105.9	105.2	106.1	105.8
47	SMU	105.5	105.2	106.2	105.6
48	Air Force	104.1	105.7	105.0	104.9
49	Florida St.	104.5	104.5	104.7	104.6
50	Illinois	104.1	105.0	103.9	104.4
51	Purdue	104.0	103.8	103.4	103.7
52	Nebraska	103.3	103.7	102.4	103.1
53	BYU	102.8	103.0	102.8	102.9
54	California	102.7	102.4	103.2	102.8
55	Wake Forest	102.9	102.1	103.0	102.7
56	Boston College	102.4	102.0	102.6	102.3
57	Syracuse	102.1	101.3	101.4	101.6
58	West Virginia	101.7	101.4	101.1	101.4
59	Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.2	101.3
60	Northwestern	101.6	100.6	100.0	100.7
61	Louisiana	100.5	100.8	100.1	100.5
62	Oregon St.	100.0	101.0	99.8	100.3
63	Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.2	100.2
64	Louisville	100.0	99.8	100.0	99.9
65	Utah St.	99.6	99.1	100.5	99.7
66	Wyoming	98.9	100.7	99.3	99.6
67	U C L A	99.4	99.2	99.1	99.3
68	Temple	98.8	98.4	99.9	99.0
69	Navy	97.7	100.0	98.5	98.8
70	Florida Atlantic	98.0	98.0	99.4	98.5
71	Duke	98.7	97.9	98.4	98.3
72	Western Michigan	98.3	97.3	98.0	97.9
73	San Diego St.	97.2	98.8	97.1	97.7
74	Georgia Southern	97.3	97.3	97.0	97.2
75	Houston	96.0	96.8	97.8	96.8
76	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8
77	Maryland	97.5	96.3	95.9	96.6
78	Southern Miss.	96.7	95.5	97.1	96.4
79	Colorado	96.5	96.3	96.3	96.3
80	Kansas	95.7	96.7	95.6	96.0
81	Hawaii	95.5	96.9	94.6	95.7
82	Army	95.3	95.5	94.8	95.2
83	Louisiana Tech	94.9	95.1	95.2	95.0
84	Fresno St.	94.6	95.6	94.7	95.0
85	North Carolina St.	94.7	94.0	94.3	94.3
86	Tulsa	93.6	94.5	94.9	94.3
87	Troy	94.4	94.9	93.3	94.2
88	Marshall	93.5	93.3	94.5	93.8
89	Western Kentucky	92.9	93.8	94.5	93.7
90	Buffalo	92.7	93.2	93.9	93.2
91	Ohio	93.4	92.4	93.7	93.2
92	Miami (Ohio)	92.5	91.5	93.2	92.4
93	South Florida	91.4	92.3	91.8	91.8
94	Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4
95	Georgia St.	91.2	92.2	90.7	91.4
96	Arkansas St.	91.1	91.4	90.8	91.1
97	Liberty	90.3	91.4	90.6	90.7
98	Georgia Tech	90.8	89.5	91.0	90.4
99	Ball St.	90.3	89.9	90.4	90.2
100	Northern Illinois	90.1	89.5	90.4	90.0
101	Central Michigan	89.0	89.6	90.0	89.5
102	San Jose St.	88.3	90.2	88.5	89.0
103	U A B	87.9	89.9	88.5	88.8
104	Colorado St.	87.3	90.6	87.8	88.6
105	Nevada	88.1	89.7	87.6	88.5
106	Middle Tennessee	88.6	87.8	88.4	88.3
107	Toledo	88.0	88.1	88.5	88.2
108	Kent St.	87.8	87.8	88.4	88.0
109	North Texas	88.0	87.6	88.3	88.0
110	Coastal Carolina	87.4	88.6	87.2	87.7
111	Arkansas	87.4	87.3	86.6	87.1
112	Charlotte	86.0	86.4	86.4	86.3
113	Louisiana-Monroe	85.7	86.1	85.1	85.6
114	Eastern Michigan	85.3	85.5	85.7	85.5
115	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.4	85.4	85.5
116	East Carolina	83.9	85.3	84.3	84.5
117	Rutgers	84.7	84.4	83.5	84.2
118	U N L V	82.8	84.3	82.2	83.1
119	Rice	81.1	82.0	80.6	81.3
120	New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9
121	Texas St.	78.3	78.8	77.5	78.2
122	New Mexico St.	75.8	77.6	75.6	76.3
123	Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.5	75.6	76.2
124	South Alabama	75.0	77.5	74.7	75.8
125	Old Dominion	73.9	74.2	74.0	74.0
126	Bowling Green	72.2	71.8	72.1	72.1
127	Connecticut	71.2	74.0	70.2	71.8
128	U T E P	68.6	72.3	69.0	69.9
129	Akron	65.9	65.6	64.5	65.3
130	Massachusetts	56.5	58.0	55.2	56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.8	111.1	112.3	111.7	4-2	7-3
Cincinnati	106.7	106.2	106.9	106.6	6-0	9-1
Temple	98.8	98.4	99.9	99.0	4-2	7-3
South Florida	91.4	92.3	91.8	91.8	2-4	4-6
East Carolina	83.9	85.3	84.3	84.5	0-6	3-7
Connecticut	71.2	74.0	70.2	71.8	0-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	107.5	107.6	108.6	107.9	5-1	9-1
SMU	105.5	105.2	106.2	105.6	5-1	9-1
Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.2	100.2	3-3	6-4
Navy	97.7	100.0	98.5	98.8	5-1	7-2
Houston	96.0	96.8	97.8	96.8	1-5	3-7
Tulsa	93.6	94.5	94.9	94.3	1-5	3-7
AAC Averages	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	137.6	135.7	138.9	137.4	8-0	11-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.5	104.7	104.6	4-4	6-5
Wake Forest	102.9	102.1	103.0	102.7	3-3	7-3
Boston College	102.4	102.0	102.6	102.3	3-4	5-5
Syracuse	102.1	101.3	101.4	101.6	1-5	4-6
Louisville	100.0	99.8	100.0	99.9	4-3	6-4
North Carolina St.	94.7	94.0	94.3	94.3	1-5	4-6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	108.6	108.3	109.8	108.9	4-3	6-4
Virginia Tech	108.4	108.4	109.3	108.7	5-2	7-3
Virginia	107.4	107.3	107.4	107.4	5-2	7-3
North Carolina	105.8	105.6	106.5	106.0	3-4	4-6
Pittsburgh	105.9	105.5	106.2	105.9	4-2	7-3
Duke	98.7	97.9	98.4	98.3	2-5	4-6
Georgia Tech	90.8	89.5	91.0	90.4	1-6	2-8
ACC Averages	105.0	104.4	105.3	104.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.1	122.3	122.6	122.7	6-1	9-1
Iowa St.	115.4	116.0	115.8	115.7	4-3	6-4
Baylor	113.0	113.0	112.3	112.8	6-1	9-1
Texas	110.5	110.8	110.5	110.6	4-3	6-4
Oklahoma St.	110.4	111.1	110.1	110.5	4-3	7-3
Kansas St.	110.6	110.4	110.4	110.5	3-4	6-4
T C U	107.7	110.0	108.0	108.6	3-4	5-5
Texas Tech	105.9	106.3	105.2	105.8	2-5	4-6
West Virginia	101.7	101.4	101.1	101.4	2-5	4-6
Kansas	95.7	96.7	95.6	96.0	1-6	3-7
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	140.0	139.2	141.3	140.2	7-0	10-0
Michigan	125.6	124.3	126.0	125.3	5-2	8-2
Penn St.	123.2	122.2	123.0	122.8	6-1	9-1
Indiana	111.3	110.4	111.3	111.0	4-3	7-3
Michigan St.	108.7	107.7	107.9	108.1	2-5	4-6
Maryland	97.5	96.3	95.9	96.6	1-6	3-7
Rutgers	84.7	84.4	83.5	84.2	0-7	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.5	120.2	120.5	120.4	5-2	8-2
Minnesota	118.8	118.5	118.5	118.6	6-1	9-1
Iowa	118.9	117.3	119.0	118.4	4-3	7-3
Illinois	104.1	105.0	103.9	104.4	4-3	6-4
Purdue	104.0	103.8	103.4	103.7	3-4	4-6
Nebraska	103.3	103.7	102.4	103.1	2-5	4-6
Northwestern	101.6	100.6	100.0	100.7	0-7	2-8
Big Ten Averages	111.6	111.0	111.2	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.0	98.0	99.4	98.5	5-1	7-3
Marshall	93.5	93.3	94.5	93.8	5-1	7-3
Western Kentucky	92.9	93.8	94.5	93.7	4-2	6-4
Middle Tennessee	88.6	87.8	88.4	88.3	2-4	3-7
Charlotte	86.0	86.4	86.4	86.3	3-3	5-5
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.4	85.4	85.5	3-4	5-5
Old Dominion	73.9	74.2	74.0	74.0	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	96.7	95.5	97.1	96.4	5-1	7-3
Louisiana Tech	94.9	95.1	95.2	95.0	5-1	8-2
U A B	87.9	89.9	88.5	88.8	4-2	7-3
North Texas	88.0	87.6	88.3	88.0	3-3	4-6
Rice	81.1	82.0	80.6	81.3	1-5	1-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.5	75.6	76.2	3-3	4-6
U T E P	68.6	72.3	69.0	69.9	0-7	1-9
CUSA Averages	86.5	87.1	86.9	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	118.8	117.6	118.8	118.4	x	8-2
BYU	102.8	103.0	102.8	102.9	x	6-4
Army	95.3	95.5	94.8	95.2	x	5-6
Liberty	90.3	91.4	90.6	90.7	x	6-4
New Mexico St.	75.8	77.6	75.6	76.3	x	1-9
Massachusetts	56.5	58.0	55.2	56.6	x	1-10
Indep. Averages	89.9	90.5	89.6	90.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	92.7	93.2	93.9	93.2	3-3	5-5
Ohio	93.4	92.4	93.7	93.2	3-3	4-6
Miami (Ohio)	92.5	91.5	93.2	92.4	5-1	6-4
Kent St.	87.8	87.8	88.4	88.0	3-3	4-6
Bowling Green	72.2	71.8	72.1	72.1	2-4	3-7
Akron	65.9	65.6	64.5	65.3	0-6	0-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.3	97.3	98.0	97.9	5-2	7-4
Ball St.	90.3	89.9	90.4	90.2	3-3	4-6
Northern Illinois	90.1	89.5	90.4	90.0	3-3	4-6
Central Michigan	89.0	89.6	90.0	89.5	5-2	7-4
Toledo	88.0	88.1	88.5	88.2	3-3	6-4
Eastern Michigan	85.3	85.5	85.7	85.5	2-4	5-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.9	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.2	106.4	106.3	106.3	6-0	9-1
Air Force	104.1	105.7	105.0	104.9	5-1	8-2
Utah St.	99.6	99.1	100.5	99.7	5-1	6-4
Wyoming	98.9	100.7	99.3	99.6	3-3	6-4
Colorado St.	87.3	90.6	87.8	88.6	3-3	4-6
New Mexico	79.6	81.8	78.2	79.9	0-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.2	98.8	97.1	97.7	5-2	8-2
Hawaii	95.5	96.9	94.6	95.7	4-3	7-4
Fresno St.	94.6	95.6	94.7	95.0	2-4	4-6
San Jose St.	88.3	90.2	88.5	89.0	1-5	4-6
Nevada	88.1	89.7	87.6	88.5	3-3	6-4
U N L V	82.8	84.3	82.2	83.1	1-6	2-8
MWC Averages	93.5	95.0	93.5	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0	7-0	9-1
Washington	114.1	113.8	115.1	114.3	3-4	6-4
Washington St.	112.1	111.3	112.5	112.0	2-5	5-5
California	102.7	102.4	103.2	102.8	2-5	5-5
Stanford	101.8	100.9	101.2	101.3	3-5	4-6
Oregon St.	100.0	101.0	99.8	100.3	4-3	5-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	126.6	125.6	127.5	126.6	6-1	9-1
U S C	110.6	111.1	111.3	111.0	6-2	7-4
Arizona St.	105.9	105.2	106.1	105.8	2-5	5-5
U C L A	99.4	99.2	99.1	99.3	4-3	4-6
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8	2-5	4-6
Colorado	96.5	96.3	96.3	96.3	2-5	4-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.1	107.6	107.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.9	126.2	128.3	127.5	6-1	9-1
Florida	125.6	123.0	125.4	124.6	7-2	9-2
Tennessee	110.2	110.0	109.5	109.9	3-3	5-5
Missouri	110.6	108.0	109.7	109.4	2-4	5-5
Kentucky	109.8	108.5	108.7	109.0	3-5	5-5
South Carolina	109.2	107.4	108.2	108.3	3-5	4-7
Vanderbilt	92.5	90.9	90.9	91.4	1-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8	6-0	10-0
Alabama	128.9	125.7	129.4	128.0	6-1	9-1
Auburn	122.5	120.7	122.1	121.8	4-3	7-3
Texas A&M	117.9	116.4	117.0	117.1	4-2	7-3
Mississippi St.	109.8	106.5	113.7	110.0	2-5	4-6
Ole Miss	107.3	106.6	107.4	107.1	2-5	4-7
Arkansas	87.4	87.3	86.6	87.1	0-6	2-8
SEC Averages	113.7	111.9	113.5	113.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	107.9	107.2	107.5	107.5	5-1	9-1
Georgia Southern	97.3	97.3	97.0	97.2	4-2	6-4
Troy	94.4	94.9	93.3	94.2	3-3	5-5
Georgia St.	91.2	92.2	90.7	91.4	3-3	6-4
Coastal Carolina	87.4	88.6	87.2	87.7	1-5	4-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.5	100.8	100.1	100.5	5-1	8-2
Arkansas St.	91.1	91.4	90.8	91.1	4-2	6-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.7	86.1	85.1	85.6	3-3	4-6
Texas St.	78.3	78.8	77.5	78.2	2-4	3-7
South Alabama	75.0	77.5	74.7	75.8	0-6	1-9
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.4	90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.0
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.4
4	Pac-12	107.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.9
6	American	97.4
7	Mountain West	94.0
8	Sun Belt	90.9
9	Independents	90.0
10	Mid-American	87.1
11	Conference USA	86.8
Our Guess at Top 6
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Georgia
5	Utah
6	Alabama
Top 5 Group of 5
1	Cincinnati
2	Memphis
3	Boise St.
4	SMU
5	Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgia could be headed to the playoffs if they both win out, and then Georgia pulls off a mild upset in the SEC Championship Game. There is also a small chance that Alabama could sneak back into the picture if LSU beats Georgia, and then Alabama thrashes Auburn on The Plains to show the Committee that losing Tua Tagovailoa didn’t weaken the Tide enough to knock them out of the Playoff picture. Either way, there is a decent chance that the SEC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially if Oklahoma loses another game and Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12.

Alabama and Florida are almost assured of receiving New Year’s Six Bowl Bids, and if Alabama sneaks into the Playoffs, then Georgia will replace the Tide in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Citrus bowl would then take Auburn. Texas A&M is almost a cinch to go to the Texas Bowl this year, where some backroom deals are being made to place Texas in there as a dream match-up. Tennessee is one win away from a possible destination in Jacksonville in the Gator Bowl, while Kentucky needs only to beat UT-Martin this week to earn a trip to a possible Outback Bowl game against a possible neighboring rival.

At this point, there are no more happy guarantees for the great SEC. Mississippi State is going to beat Abilene Christian this weekend to get to 5-6, but then they must turn around and face Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day, while the Rebels get this week off to prepare an extra few days. The way the two teams are playing presently, Ole Miss looks like the superior team, so we will count out Mississippi State at 5-7.

Missouri is 5-5, and the Tigers still have to play Arkansas, so even though they have lost four consecutive games, Mizzou is going to be 6-6. The Tigers are still in limbo with the NCAA. While Missouri is on probation and has a bowl ban, their legal team has filed an appeal, and the NCAA has yet to rule on it and might not rule on it until after bowl bids have been issued. It looks like the NCAA is going to turn the other cheek to help the SEC out, and then rule after the bowl season on the matter, or they could rule that Missouri has done enough in-house corrections to get a reprieve. Then, again, there is a lot of dissension going on in Columbia, and the school may choose to close up shop after the Arkansas game and self-impose on taking a meaningless bowl game at 6-6.

The SEC has agreements with 11 bowls not including the Playoffs. If two SEC teams make the Playoffs, then the SEC will have the need for 13 bowl eligible teams and will most likely have eight or nine bowl eligible teams. If Maalox wants to create a nice promotion, they will send free cases of their product to the members of the Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls, and possibly the Belk Bowl.

With the possibility of some really weak bowl match-ups, you can expect this season to produce at least one if not two or three “backroom” deals to place better at-large teams in the bowls where the opponent is a Power Five team. A 9-3 Power Conference team playing a 6-6 Group of 5 team just cannot be allowed.

What you see in our Bowl Projections are the raw projections strictly following the bowl rules. As information leaks about potential back-room deals, we will try to stay on top of all the news and rumors.

Here is a conference by conference look at the bowl eligible teams and those that can still become bowl eligible.

American Athletic

Bowl Eligible: 7
Memphis, SMU, Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Temple

Still Alive: South Florida

If either Memphis or Cincinnati win out to capture the AAC Title, that team will head to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 best champion. SMU could also earn this bid if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, while the Mustangs win out, including beating Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Navy has a remote chance at getting to the Cotton Bowl. Memphis and SMU would both have to lose in the regular season, while Navy wins out and beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game, and Boise State would have to lose in the Mountain West.
South Florida merely has to beat Memphis and Central Florida to earn a bowl, so it isn’t going to be a Bulls Market this year.

Atlantic Coast (+ Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh

Still Alive: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, N. Carolina St., and Syracuse

Clemson has the best chance of any team of going 13-0 before the Playoffs, but we are starting to see just a little extra possibility that if Virginia Tech takes care of Pittsburgh and Virginia, the Hokies will be a little more formidable than the experts are given them credit for being. Va. Tech was dismissed for dead earlier in the season, but Justin Fuente has done an incredible job re-shaping the Hokie team to where they look like the second best team in the league. If Tech beats Pitt and Virginia, they will most likely be the Orange Bowl representative even if Clemson pounds them in the ACC Championship Game.

At this point, our forecast calls for North Carolina to top Mercer and NC State to finish 6-6 and grab the last bowl spot that goes to the ACC. We don’t see a path to 6-6 for the other teams still alive.

Big 12

Bowl Eligible: 6
Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St.

Still Alive: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The PiRate Ratings do not forecast Oklahoma to win out and sneak into the Playoffs, but don’t assume we are picking Baylor to get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have to go to Stillwater to face the much-improved Cowboys, and we believe Oklahoma St. has a very decent chance to pull off the upset and ruin the league’s chances to get into the Playoffs.

Of the teams still fighting for bowl eligibility, we believe TCU can beat West Virginia in Fort Worth to get their sixth win, but Tech and the Mountaineers might both be staring at 5-7 seasons.

Big Ten

Bowl Eligible: 7

Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Still Alive: Michigan St., Nebraska, Purdue

This is the most interesting race for the Playoffs and Bowl seeding. First, Ohio State must now close with wins against Penn State, Michigan, and the Western Division Champion in the Conference Championship Game to guarantee a Playoff spot. Only the Penn State game is in the Giant Horseshoe. We remember 50 years ago quite well, when an 8-0 Ohio State team that many were calling the greatest college football team since Army in 1945, went to the Big House to play a two-loss Michigan team that remembered being thrashed in Columbus the previous year. That Ohio State team was a double-digit favorite and got thrashed by a Michigan defense that played well over its potential that day.

Assuming Ohio State handles Penn State this weekend, could history repeat itself 50 years later? Of course, James Franklin has a history of getting underdog teams psyched up to win big road games, so the Nittany Lions could still be in the Big Ten Championship picture.

On the other side, Minnesota still controls its own destiny, but then so does Wisconsin. The Gophers did everything but beat Iowa in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes frequently win games at home with final stats that on paper look like they lost by a couple of touchdowns. The Gophers get Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

There is even a bizarre scenario where Illinois could win the West Division flag. This requires Minnesota to lose to Northwestern and Wisconsin; for Wisconsin to lose to Purdue, while the Illini beat Iowa and Northwestern. The chances for this to happen are about the same as Lovie Smith taking over Alabama for Nick Saban in 2020.

Michigan State is now 4-6, and the Spartans look like an offense from the days of one platoon football. Their defense has fallen apart with all the extra snaps it has had to face, but now Sparty catches a break. MSU closes with Rutgers and Maryland, so the Green and White have about a 95% chance of improving to 6-6 and getting a bottom tier bowl bid.

Nebraska is 4-6 with games remaining against Maryland and Iowa. We have a suspicion that Scott Frost will have his team prepared to face the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium and will pull off the upset to close at 6-6 and get the final bowl bid in this league.

Purdue must beat both Wisconsin and Indiana to get to 6-6, and by the time they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, their long snapper might be the backup quarterback. Better luck next year Boilermakers.

Because the Big Ten has the most strict bowl tie-ins, certain teams cannot go to certain bowls if they have been to them in the last five years. What this means is:

The Citrus Bowl will not invite Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State

The Outback Bowl will not invite Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Holiday Bowl will not invite Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Gator Bowl will not invite Iowa or Penn St.

The Pinstripe Bowl will not invite Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin

The Redbox Bowl will not invite Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, or Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl will not invite Minnesota

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss., UAB

Still Alive: Charlotte, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UTSA

Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, so it the Thundering Herd beat Charlotte and FIU, they will be East Division champs. In the West, Louisiana Tech controls their destiny, but if the Bulldogs lose to UAB, then Southern Miss can win out and take the division flag.

Of the teams still alive, Charlotte and North Texas have the best chances to get to six wins, while FIU and UTSA have close to zero chances to do so. Because this league could have eight bowl eligible teams, and they have just five primary tie-ins, two or three teams will get at-large invitations, and deals could be made to send better teams to at-large spots.

Independents (not Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 2
BYU, Liberty

Still Alive: Army

BYU has earned its guaranteed Hawaii Bowl bid with its sixth win. Liberty doesn’t have a primary bowl bid, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl. Since the AAC is likely to send its champion to the Cotton Bowl, the Cure Bowl bid could be there for Liberty.

Army must beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Navy to get to 7-6. We don’t see it happening this year.

Mid-American

Bowl Eligible: 4
Miami (O), Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive: Buffalo, Kent St., Ohio, Ball St., Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois

Not having a dominating team and having to play games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays have led to MACtion being one big season-long toss-up with a lot of parity. Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division title, as the Red Hawks hold all potential tiebreakers over Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St. The West is a different story as four teams are still technically alive. Western Michigan will win the division if the Broncos beat both Ohio and Northern Illinois, but both games are on the road, and we don’t believe WMU will go 2-0.

Central Michigan must win at Ball State and then beat Toledo at home and then hope that WMU loses to Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois and Toledo are still mathematically alive in the race but need multiple things to happen to sneak into the top spot in the West.

There are still six teams trying to become eligible, and by the time the regular season concludes, we believe the MAC will have eight bowl eligible teams with five teams at 6-6. Not all these 6-6 teams will have bowl spots available to them, but the MAC should receive at least one extra bowl invitation and possibly two.

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Utah St., Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St.

Still Alive: Colorado St., Fresno St., San Jose St.

Boise State must win out and hope for the AAC to implode and produce a two-loss league champion in order for the Broncos to ascend to the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. could be 12-1 and relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl. If that happens, and the Pac-12 has a 6-6 team available, there is a chance that a deal could be made to send the Pac-12 team east and bring a 10 or 11-win team like Appalachian State or SMU to Vegas. Or, Boise State could be sent east to play in a Liberty, Music City, or Belk Bowl where no SEC team is available.

Air Force is looking at 10-2 and another potential bad bowl match-up, and because the Falcons can basically bring the entire Academy, they can fill up a bowl stadium even if it’s 1,500 miles from Colorado Springs.

In the West, the winner of the San Diego State-Hawaii game this week gets to face Boise State with a chance for the big upset. Technically, Air Force and Utah State are still alive in the Mountain, but Boise State has to lose twice for that to happen.
Of the three teams still with a chance to become bowl eligible, Colorado State has to beat both Wyoming and Boise State, so the Rams are staying home for the holidays. Fresno State and San Jose State are looking at a season finale where they will face off in San Jose with probably 5-6 records. The Spartans look like the stronger team in November, so we’ll give SJSU the final bid.

Pac-12

Bowl Eligible: 4
Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah

Still Alive: California, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St. Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, UCLA

The entire conference is still alive for a bowl! That’s a blessing and a curse. There is so much parity that when USC beat Utah, they severely damaged this league’s chance to sneak a team into the Playoffs. Even if either Utah or Oregon wins out to finish 12-1, they are almost assuredly relegated to Pasadena and not to the Playoffs. Oregon dominated Auburn until the final few minutes to start the season, and that game is just as important as the Utah loss to the Trojans.

Of the eight remaining teams not yet bowl eligible, we believe that three will get to six wins. Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA don’t look like they have enough talent to win the games they must win to get to 6-6. Any 6-6 team in this league will be in a bowl.

Southeastern

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M

Still Alive: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi St.

See above for the explanation for the SEC. We believe nine teams will be bowl eligible, or eight if Missouri either self-imposes a bowl ban, or the NCAA denies their appeal before December.

Sunbelt

Bowl Eligible: 5
Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St.. Arkansas St., Louisiana

Still Alive: Coastal Carolina, Troy, UL-Monroe

It will take a monumental chain of events for Appy State and Lousiana not to meet in the SBC Championship Game. Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Troy all still hold miniscule division title hopes in the East, while Arkansas St. and UL-Monroe are still mathematically alive in the West.

This is the only conference where we don’t see an additional team still alive becoming bowl eligible.

This Week’s Projections

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Nevada]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Georgia St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Cincinnati	Central Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ball St.	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	California
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Navy	Western Kentucky
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Central Florida
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Charlotte]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Wake Forest	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Washington St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	[Utah St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Eastern Michigan]	Virginia
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Louisville	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	[North Texas]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	Hawaii
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Alabama
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[UAB]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Air Force
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Georgia	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Georgia	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 10, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 12
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio	Western Mich.	-2.6	-2.6	-2.0
Akron	Eastern Mich.	-14.9	-15.1	-16.4
Wednesday	November 13
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Bowling Green	17.8	16.7	18.3
Toledo	Northern Illinois	1.1	2.3	1.8
Thursday	November 14
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kent St.	Buffalo	-3.2	-4.0	-4.4
Pittsburgh	North Carolina	3.3	3.2	2.9
Friday	November 15
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Marshall	Louisiana Tech	-3.0	-3.9	-2.8
San Diego St.	Fresno St.	4.7	5.3	3.9
Saturday	November 16
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rutgers	Ohio St.	-53.2	-52.7	-55.8
Auburn	Georgia	-1.2	-1.2	-1.7
Utah	UCLA	24.9	24.0	26.0
Nebraska	Wisconsin	-14.0	-13.1	-14.7
Michigan	Michigan St.	14.5	14.1	15.5
Iowa	Minnesota	2.9	1.1	2.9
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	17.6	17.1	17.3
California	USC	-0.6	-1.3	-0.5
Washington St.	Stanford	10.3	10.2	11.1
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-3.9	-2.1	-4.5
Northwestern	Massachusetts	48.4	45.6	48.4
Mississippi St.	Alabama	-20.2	-20.3	-16.8
Penn St.	Indiana	15.8	15.7	16.1
Missouri	Florida	-11.4	-11.2	-11.7
Texas Tech	TCU	1.3	-1.0	0.3
Temple	Tulane	1.7	0.3	2.0
UAB	UTEP	22.0	19.9	21.8
Notre Dame	Navy	23.0	19.0	21.8
Arkansas St.	Coastal Carolina	7.2	6.2	7.4
Georgia Southern	UL-Monroe	14.1	13.4	14.0
Texas St.	Troy	-7.2	-7.3	-7.0
Clemson	Wake Forest	34.5	33.0	35.4
Kansas St.	West Virginia	15.1	15.4	15.9
Houston	Memphis	-5.9	-5.1	-4.6
Ball St.	Central Mich.	4.8	3.7	4.1
Iowa St.	Texas	8.3	8.5	8.8
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-6.3	-7.8	-6.6
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-12.3	-12.4	-12.4
Duke	Syracuse	7.7	7.8	8.1
UNLV	Hawaii	-7.5	-7.2	-6.8
Utah St.	Wyoming	2.8	-0.1	2.8
Middle Tennessee	Rice	12.8	11.1	13.6
South Alabama	Louisiana	-24.3	-22.1	-25.2
UTSA	Southern Miss.	-18.5	-15.2	-19.0
Ole Miss	LSU	-21.7	-20.1	-21.7
South Florida	Cincinnati	-13.2	-11.8	-13.4
Colorado St.	Air Force	-15.1	-12.8	-15.3
Baylor	Oklahoma	-6.3	-5.4	-6.4
Texas A&M	South Carolina	8.9	9.0	8.6
North Carolina St.	Louisville	0.5	0.1	0.4
Georgia St.	Appalachian St.	-11.6	-9.3	-11.3
Boise St.	New Mexico	28.6	26.2	29.9
Oregon	Arizona	27.5	27.9	29.2

 

FBS vs.	FCS	PiRate
Florida St.	Alabama St.	39
Army	VMI	31
BYU	Idaho St.	31
New Mexico St.	Incarnate Word	10

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	140.6	139.8	141.9	140.8
2	Clemson	135.9	133.8	137.0	135.6
3	Alabama	134.3	131.1	134.8	133.4
4	L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8
5	Georgia	127.1	125.3	127.3	126.6
6	Florida	125.3	122.6	124.9	124.2
7	Utah	124.0	122.9	124.8	123.9
8	Penn St.	123.6	122.7	123.7	123.4
9	Michigan	123.3	121.9	123.6	122.9
10	Auburn	122.8	121.1	122.6	122.2
11	Oklahoma	122.4	121.6	121.9	122.0
12	Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0
13	Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2
14	Minnesota	118.9	118.8	118.8	118.8
15	Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1
16	Notre Dame	118.3	116.8	118.1	117.7
17	Iowa St.	115.6	116.2	116.0	115.9
18	Texas A&M	116.5	114.9	115.4	115.6
19	Washington	113.8	113.5	114.8	114.0
20	Baylor	113.2	113.2	112.5	113.0
21	Kansas St.	112.2	112.1	112.2	112.2
22	Central Florida	111.5	110.8	112.0	111.4
23	Mississippi St.	111.1	107.8	115.0	111.3
24	Indiana	110.9	109.9	110.6	110.5
25	Oklahoma St.	110.3	111.0	110.0	110.4
26	Texas	110.3	110.6	110.3	110.4
27	Washington St.	110.6	109.7	110.9	110.4
28	Missouri	110.9	108.4	110.2	109.8
29	Michigan St.	110.3	109.4	109.6	109.8
30	South Carolina	110.6	108.9	109.8	109.8
31	Tennessee	109.9	109.7	109.2	109.6
32	Miami (Fla.)	108.3	108.0	109.5	108.6
33	U S C	108.2	108.7	108.7	108.6
34	T C U	107.4	109.9	107.7	108.3
35	Kentucky	108.3	106.9	107.0	107.4
36	Cincinnati	107.3	106.8	107.7	107.3
37	Virginia	107.1	107.0	107.1	107.1
38	Ole Miss	106.8	106.1	106.9	106.6
39	Arizona St.	106.6	105.9	106.9	106.5
40	Memphis	106.2	106.2	107.0	106.5
41	Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1
42	Texas Tech	106.2	106.4	105.5	106.0
43	Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	106.3	106.0
44	North Carolina	105.7	105.5	106.4	105.9
45	Boise St.	105.7	105.7	105.7	105.7
46	SMU	105.2	104.9	105.9	105.3
47	California	104.6	104.3	105.3	104.7
48	Air Force	104.0	105.3	104.8	104.7
49	Virginia Tech	104.4	104.5	105.1	104.7
50	Florida St.	104.4	104.4	104.6	104.5
51	Wake Forest	104.4	103.8	104.7	104.3
52	Illinois	103.8	104.7	103.6	104.1
53	Purdue	103.7	103.5	103.1	103.4
54	Nebraska	103.4	103.9	102.6	103.3
55	Duke	103.5	102.7	103.2	103.1
56	Stanford	103.3	102.5	102.8	102.9
57	BYU	102.6	102.8	102.6	102.7
58	Boston College	102.1	101.7	102.3	102.0
59	U C L A	102.0	101.9	101.8	101.9
60	Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4
61	Northwestern	102.1	101.0	100.7	101.3
62	Tulane	100.0	100.8	100.5	100.4
63	Wyoming	99.3	101.4	100.0	100.2
64	Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0
65	West Virginia	100.1	99.7	99.3	99.7
66	Navy	98.2	100.8	99.2	99.4
67	Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1
68	Temple	98.6	98.1	99.6	98.8
69	Louisville	98.8	98.5	98.6	98.6
70	Syracuse	98.8	98.0	98.1	98.3
71	Florida Atlantic	97.8	97.8	99.2	98.3
72	Houston	97.3	98.2	99.4	98.3
73	Western Michigan	98.4	97.4	98.1	98.0
74	Louisiana Tech	97.1	97.5	97.6	97.4
75	San Diego St.	96.6	98.2	96.2	97.0
76	Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8
77	Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7
78	Southern Miss.	96.7	95.3	97.1	96.4
79	Maryland	97.2	96.0	95.6	96.3
80	Kansas	95.8	96.8	95.7	96.1
81	Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0
82	North Carolina St.	96.2	95.6	96.0	95.9
83	Fresno St.	94.9	95.9	95.3	95.4
84	Hawaii	94.9	96.2	93.8	95.0
85	Army	94.9	95.1	94.4	94.8
86	Georgia Tech	95.1	93.7	95.5	94.8
87	Tulsa	93.3	94.2	94.6	94.0
88	Buffalo	93.1	93.8	94.6	93.8
89	Vanderbilt	94.5	93.0	93.1	93.5
90	Western Kentucky	92.7	93.6	94.3	93.5
91	Ohio	93.3	92.3	93.6	93.1
92	Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8
93	South Florida	91.1	92.0	91.3	91.5
94	Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4
95	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4
96	Marshall	91.0	90.6	91.8	91.1
97	Liberty	90.1	91.2	90.4	90.5
98	Ball St.	90.6	90.2	90.8	90.5
99	Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.9	90.7	89.9
100	Middle Tennessee	90.0	89.2	90.1	89.8
101	Northern Illinois	89.7	88.9	89.8	89.5
102	Central Michigan	88.4	89.0	89.3	88.9
103	Colorado St.	87.4	91.0	88.0	88.8
104	Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7
105	San Jose St.	88.0	89.9	88.2	88.7
106	U A B	87.7	89.5	88.1	88.5
107	Nevada	87.8	89.4	87.3	88.2
108	North Texas	87.8	87.4	88.1	87.8
109	Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5
110	Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4
111	Arkansas	87.1	87.0	86.3	86.8
112	Charlotte	85.8	86.2	86.2	86.1
113	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9
114	Florida Int’l.	85.5	85.2	85.2	85.3
115	Eastern Michigan	84.4	84.5	84.7	84.6
116	East Carolina	83.6	85.0	84.0	84.2
117	Rutgers	84.4	84.1	83.2	83.9
118	U N L V	83.4	85.0	83.0	83.8
119	Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7
120	New Mexico	80.1	82.5	78.8	80.5
121	Rice	79.7	80.6	78.9	79.8
122	Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.7	75.6	76.3
123	New Mexico St.	75.7	77.5	75.5	76.2
124	South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1
125	Bowling Green	74.3	74.1	74.3	74.3
126	Old Dominion	73.7	74.0	73.8	73.8
127	Connecticut	70.9	73.7	69.9	71.5
128	U T E P	68.8	72.7	69.4	70.3
129	Akron	67.1	66.9	65.8	66.6
130	Massachusetts	56.3	57.9	54.8	56.3

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.4
2	BTen	111.2
3	B12	109.4
4	P12	107.3
5	ACC	105.0
6	AAC	97.4
7	MWC	93.9
8	SUN	91.0
9	Ind	89.7
10	MAC	87.1
11	CUSA	86.7

 

Our Guess at Top 6
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Alabama
5	Georgia
6	Oregon

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Cincinnati
2	Memphis
3	Boise St.
4	Navy
5	SMU

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.5	110.8	112.0	111.4	4-2	7-3
Cincinnati	107.3	106.8	107.7	107.3	5-0	8-1
Temple	98.6	98.1	99.6	98.8	3-2	6-3
South Florida	91.1	92.0	91.3	91.5	2-3	4-5
East Carolina	83.6	85.0	84.0	84.2	0-6	3-7
Connecticut	70.9	73.7	69.9	71.5	0-6	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	106.2	106.2	107.0	106.5	4-1	8-1
SMU	105.2	104.9	105.9	105.3	5-1	9-1
Tulane	100.0	100.8	100.5	100.4	3-2	6-3
Navy	98.2	100.8	99.2	99.4	5-1	7-1
Houston	97.3	98.2	99.4	98.3	1-4	3-6
Tulsa	93.3	94.2	94.6	94.0	1-5	3-7
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.9	133.8	137.0	135.6	7-0	10-0
Florida St.	104.4	104.4	104.6	104.5	4-4	5-5
Wake Forest	104.4	103.8	104.7	104.3	3-2	7-2
Boston College	102.1	101.7	102.3	102.0	3-4	5-5
Louisville	98.8	98.5	98.6	98.6	3-3	5-4
Syracuse	98.8	98.0	98.1	98.3	0-5	3-6
North Carolina St.	96.2	95.6	96.0	95.9	1-4	4-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	108.3	108.0	109.5	108.6	4-3	6-4
Virginia	107.1	107.0	107.1	107.1	5-2	7-3
Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	106.3	106.0	3-2	6-3
North Carolina	105.7	105.5	106.4	105.9	3-3	4-5
Virginia Tech	104.4	104.5	105.1	104.7	4-2	6-3
Duke	103.5	102.7	103.2	103.1	2-4	4-5
Georgia Tech	95.1	93.7	95.5	94.8	1-5	2-7
ACC Averages	105.1	104.5	105.3	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.4	121.6	121.9	122.0	5-1	8-1
Iowa St.	115.6	116.2	116.0	115.9	3-3	5-4
Baylor	113.2	113.2	112.5	113.0	6-0	9-0
Kansas St.	112.2	112.1	112.2	112.2	3-3	6-3
Oklahoma St.	110.3	111.0	110.0	110.4	3-3	6-3
Texas	110.3	110.6	110.3	110.4	4-2	6-3
T C U	107.4	109.9	107.7	108.3	2-4	4-5
Texas Tech	106.2	106.4	105.5	106.0	2-4	4-5
West Virginia	100.1	99.7	99.3	99.7	1-5	3-6
Kansas	95.8	96.8	95.7	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	140.6	139.8	141.9	140.8	6-0	9-0
Penn St.	123.6	122.7	123.7	123.4	5-1	8-1
Michigan	123.3	121.9	123.6	122.9	4-2	7-2
Indiana	110.9	109.9	110.6	110.5	4-2	7-2
Michigan St.	110.3	109.4	109.6	109.8	2-4	4-5
Maryland	97.2	96.0	95.6	96.3	1-6	3-7
Rutgers	84.4	84.1	83.2	83.9	0-6	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2	4-2	7-2
Minnesota	118.9	118.8	118.8	118.8	6-0	9-0
Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1	3-3	6-3
Illinois	103.8	104.7	103.6	104.1	4-3	6-4
Purdue	103.7	103.5	103.1	103.4	3-4	4-6
Nebraska	103.4	103.9	102.6	103.3	2-4	4-5
Northwestern	102.1	101.0	100.7	101.3	0-7	1-8
Big Ten Averages	111.5	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.8	97.8	99.2	98.3	5-1	7-3
Western Kentucky	92.7	93.6	94.3	93.5	4-2	6-4
Marshall	91.0	90.6	91.8	91.1	4-1	6-3
Middle Tennessee	90.0	89.2	90.1	89.8	2-3	3-6
Charlotte	85.8	86.2	86.2	86.1	3-3	5-5
Florida Int’l.	85.5	85.2	85.2	85.3	3-4	5-5
Old Dominion	73.7	74.0	73.8	73.8	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	97.1	97.5	97.6	97.4	5-0	8-1
Southern Miss.	96.7	95.3	97.1	96.4	4-1	6-3
U A B	87.7	89.5	88.1	88.5	3-2	6-3
North Texas	87.8	87.4	88.1	87.8	3-3	4-6
Rice	79.7	80.6	78.9	79.8	0-5	0-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.7	77.7	75.6	76.3	3-2	4-5
U T E P	68.8	72.7	69.4	70.3	0-6	1-8
CUSA Averages	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	118.3	116.8	118.1	117.7	x	7-2
BYU	102.6	102.8	102.6	102.7	x	5-4
Army	94.9	95.1	94.4	94.8	x	4-6
Liberty	90.1	91.2	90.4	90.5	x	6-4
New Mexico St.	75.7	77.5	75.5	76.2	x	0-9
Massachusetts	56.3	57.9	54.8	56.3	x	1-9
Indep. Averages	89.6	90.2	89.3	89.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	93.1	93.8	94.6	93.8	3-2	5-4
Ohio	93.3	92.3	93.6	93.1	3-2	4-5
Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.9	90.7	89.9	4-1	5-4
Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4	2-3	3-6
Bowling Green	74.3	74.1	74.3	74.3	2-3	3-6
Akron	67.1	66.9	65.8	66.6	0-5	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.4	97.4	98.1	98.0	4-2	6-4
Ball St.	90.6	90.2	90.8	90.5	3-2	4-5
Northern Illinois	89.7	88.9	89.8	89.5	2-3	3-6
Central Michigan	88.4	89.0	89.3	88.9	4-2	6-4
Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7	3-2	6-3
Eastern Michigan	84.4	84.5	84.7	84.6	1-4	4-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	105.7	105.7	105.7	105.7	5-0	8-1
Air Force	104.0	105.3	104.8	104.7	4-1	7-2
Wyoming	99.3	101.4	100.0	100.2	3-2	6-3
Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1	4-1	5-4
Colorado St.	87.4	91.0	88.0	88.8	3-2	4-5
New Mexico	80.1	82.5	78.8	80.5	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	96.6	98.2	96.2	97.0	4-2	7-2
Fresno St.	94.9	95.9	95.3	95.4	2-3	4-5
Hawaii	94.9	96.2	93.8	95.0	3-3	6-4
San Jose St.	88.0	89.9	88.2	88.7	1-5	4-6
Nevada	87.8	89.4	87.3	88.2	3-3	6-4
U N L V	83.4	85.0	83.0	83.8	1-5	2-7
MWC Averages	93.4	94.9	93.4	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.5	121.6	122.8	122.0	6-0	8-1
Washington	113.8	113.5	114.8	114.0	3-4	6-4
Washington St.	110.6	109.7	110.9	110.4	1-5	4-5
California	104.6	104.3	105.3	104.7	2-4	5-4
Stanford	103.3	102.5	102.8	102.9	3-4	4-5
Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0	3-3	4-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	124.0	122.9	124.8	123.9	5-1	8-1
U S C	108.2	108.7	108.7	108.6	5-2	6-4
Arizona St.	106.6	105.9	106.9	106.5	2-4	5-4
U C L A	102.0	101.9	101.8	101.9	4-2	4-5
Arizona	97.0	96.8	96.5	96.8	2-4	4-5
Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0	2-5	4-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.1	107.6	107.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.1	125.3	127.3	126.6	5-1	8-1
Florida	125.3	122.6	124.9	124.2	6-2	8-2
Missouri	110.9	108.4	110.2	109.8	2-3	5-4
South Carolina	110.6	108.9	109.8	109.8	3-4	4-6
Tennessee	109.9	109.7	109.2	109.6	3-3	5-5
Kentucky	108.3	106.9	107.0	107.4	2-5	4-5
Vanderbilt	94.5	93.0	93.1	93.5	1-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	134.3	131.1	134.8	133.4	5-1	8-1
L S U	131.5	129.3	131.6	130.8	5-0	9-0
Auburn	122.8	121.1	122.6	122.2	4-2	7-2
Texas A&M	116.5	114.9	115.4	115.6	3-2	6-3
Mississippi St.	111.1	107.8	115.0	111.3	2-4	4-5
Ole Miss	106.8	106.1	106.9	106.6	2-4	4-6
Arkansas	87.1	87.0	86.3	86.8	0-6	2-8
SEC Averages	114.1	112.3	113.9	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1	4-1	8-1
Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7	3-2	5-4
Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8	3-2	6-3
Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4	2-3	4-5
Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4	4-1	7-2
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4	3-2	5-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9	3-2	4-5
Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7	2-3	3-6
South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1	0-5	1-8
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.0

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Air Force]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Memphis	Georgia Southern
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	Wyoming
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Cincinnati	Western Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Hawaii	[Toledo]
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Navy	Western Kentucky
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Central Florida
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Virginia	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Illinois
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	[San Jose St.]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Kansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Baylor	Boise St.
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	[Eastern Michigan]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Liberty]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Virginia Tech	Georgia
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Missouri *
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Kentucky
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Appalachian St.	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	USC
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Alabama
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Charlotte]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ball St.	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	[Nevada]
Mobile Alabama	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	LSU	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oregon
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections * Missouri is on probation and technically not eligible for a bowl, but the Tigers have filed an appeal that has yet to be judged by the NCAA Infractions Committee.  If they do not issue a decision before December, then Missouri can accept a bowl bid even though they have a bowl ban in place.

 

Questions and Answers

 

Every year, we receive numerous questions from you the reader.  When we get enough, we try to answer them in one post.  The number one question we receive from people that know us is: “How do you ask a question on your site?”

So we can reduce Spam and not give a link, this is how you do it.  Go to our sister site that you can see to the side on our Blogroll under “The PiRate Ratings, ” which is the 6th one down the page.  This will take you to our sister website.  Once at this other website, click on the Contact Us link, and you can ask your question after you fill out your information.

Here are the questions we have received since the start of football season.  Some of these have been asked every year for the last five or six seasons.

 

Q1. What does PiRate, Mean, and Bias mean in your ratings?

A1. We have one basic power rating that we compile based on game statistics and strength of schedule.  We have three ways of calculating this data.  The PiRate Rating is our old formula that we have used for many years with little change in calculation.  We can also estimate FCS team power ratings with this formula.  The Mean formula takes all the data and weighs each item identically.  There are seven basic grade scores that are then divided by seven to get this rating.  The Bias formula does apply weighted grades to the parts of the game that we believe are more important than others, thus the grading is biased in favor of four of the seven grading scores.

Q2. What is your home field advantage for football?

A2. The PiRate Ratings use differing home field advantages for every game.  If Miami of Florida is hosting Florida International, the home field advantage is going to be much different than if they were to host Hawaii, Buffalo, or Washington.  Some of the time, a road team might actually receive some advantage over the home team.  Let’s say a 2-7 team with little fan support is hosting a team from an adjacent state in a conference game, when the other team is trying to get bowl eligible, and there are fans of this other team just 45 minutes away from the visiting team’s stadium.  Let’s say that about 75% of the fans at the game will be fans of the visiting team, and the home team will have to use visual signals to snap the ball.  It happens.

Q3. How come you have a 5-2 team rated ahead of a 7-0 team in the same conference, and the 5-2 team lost to the 7-0 team in September?

A3. The PiRate Ratings aren’t about what happened three, four, five, or six weeks ago.  The goal of these ratings is to try to predict the outcomes of this week’s games.  For instance, you might notice that Alabama is still rated ahead of LSU in our ratings.  We believe if the two teams were to play again this week on a neutral field, Alabama would win the game.  It might be a lot easier to see this like baseball.  The Padres might beat the Dodgers on Thursday and Friday, but the Dodgers will still be favored to beat them on Saturday and Sunday.  These ratings are meant to be used to predict the future and not rate the past. 

Q4. Why do you like Ohio State so much and always move them up to number one every year?

A4. These are mechanical power ratings.  We could teach somebody else how to calculate the ratings with maybe 3 to 4 hours of teaching.  There is no real human factor where we can say that Ohio State is our favorite team, so let’s make them number one.  Ohio State is number one because the statistical numbers make them number one.  We like Ohio State no more or less than Illinois or Michigan or Rice or San Jose St.  What we love is to be accurate.  Thus, the real thing we root to be number one is our ratings.

Q5. What does your power rating number mean for each team?

A5. Our ratings are calculated so that the average FBS team is rated 100.00.  If a team has a power rating of 106.8, this means they are 6.8 points better than the average FBS team.  If they have a rating of 87.4, this means they are 12.6 points weaker than the average team.

Q6.  Why do you only issue one spread for FBS vs. FCS games?

A6. The Mean and Bias ratings require more statistical analysis using a lot more data than the regular PiRate Rating.  We cannot calculate these ratings for FCS teams.  The regular PiRate Rating consists of data calculation that takes about 3 minutes per FCS team.  And, the PiRate Rating for FCS teams is only an approximation rating.  We do not use the same adjustment to  the ratings of FBS teams that play FCS teams. 

Q7. I noticed that Nebraska did not play this weekend, yet your rating for Nebraska went up a little.  Why is this?

A7. There are two factors at play here.  Nebraska’s opponents played to date did play this past weekend, and their ratings adjusted, which adjusted Nebraska’s rating.  Also, the week off usually helps teams.  Thus, Nebraska’s three ratings rose by about 0.6 points each.

Q8. How do you calculate your Bowl and Playoff Projections?  It does not look like you use the “if the season ended today” method.

A8. We do not use the “if the season ended today” method.  We estimate each team’s final won-loss record and then try to do the bowl committees’ work by extending invitations to the bowl teams based on the criteria set in advance.  When all of our competitors agreed 100% that Penn State was their choice for the Rose Bowl, we had Minnesota projected there.  Expect a bunch more sites to now place Minnesota in the Rose Bowl in their projections.

For what it’s worth, in this week’s projections, we only had 79 bowl eligible teams, which means just one bowl eligible team would be excluded in our mind.  Because Missouri could easily lose their appeal before December, then team #79 could become #78.  That team this week is Ohio.

Q9. What do you think about the 4-team Playoff?

A9. While we believe that in most years only four teams might be championship quality, we don’t believe that Power 5 conference champions should be left out.  At the minimum, the NCAA Playoffs should be a 6-team tournament with all Power 5 conference champions making the playoffs along with the top remaining team.  We support the 8-team or even 12-team playoff.  In a perfect world, we would support a 12- team playoff with the reduction of bowls to 30.  The opening round from 12 to 8 with the top 4 getting byes would be played on the better seeded teams’ home field.  The Quarterfinal Round would then be held at four existing bowls, one in each region.  For instance, the Pinstripe, Music City, Alamo, and Holiday Bowls could host this round.

Q10. Who is the best team of all time?

A10. We can only offer our choice from teams that we have seen in our lifetime, and then only offer up who we believe was the most dominant team in the year they played.  Our answer is the 1971 Nebraska Cornhuskers.  They beat teams that finished second, third, and fourth by a combined 105-44, including destroying 11-0 Alabama in the Orange Bowl 38-6.  They also beat 8-win Utah State and Iowa State and 7-win Hawaii by a combined 124-9.  This team had 8 All-Americans and 19 players that made the All Big 8 teams.  22 players on this team were taken in an NFL Draft after their senior years, including multiple reserves.

Q11. If computers are so incredible, why can’t any beat the spread more than 60% of the time?

A11. That is probably the best question we receive.  Computers may or may not be able to beat the spread 60% of the time, but when they do, none of us ever discover this, because it is never made available to the public.

At the Prediction Tracker, where the PiRate Ratings have finished number one against the spread and in picking winners multiple times, in a typical year, the top computer program beats the spread about 56% of the time.  The top geniuses in Las Vegas, the ones that are severely restricted in how much they can wager at each book (and frequently hire others to pretend to be innocent bettors with a system to place their bets for them), beat the spread 60-65% of the time.  

Before you say that the computers aren’t up to snuff when compared to the Vegas brains, you must understand something.  These brainy geniuses don’t pick every game on the board.  At the Prediction Tracker, we pick every game against the spread.  Some of the multi-millionaires winning in Vegas cannot pick every game and beat 56%.  On a typical week, the top bettors might pick as few as three games and seldom more than nine.  They tend to go with an odd number of games to avoid a .500 outcome which guarantees a loss.  Picking three games and going 2-1 or picking 9 games and going 6-3 on a semi-consistent basis will cause the books to restrict or prohibit these smarts from wagering.

Q12. Why do you withhold basketball ratings until after New Year’s Day?

A12. This isn’t a football question, but six of you have asked this of us.  Our college basketball ratings are based on weighted four factors statistics and strength of schedule.  Until teams have played about 10 games, the statistics don’t mean enough to be viable.  The variance in these stats is much too wide until every team has had 10 games to reduce it.  For instance, if we issued ratings today, Utah would be 10 points ahead of Kentucky as the best team.  When you win by 94 points over a team rated in the bottom 5, it is like beating Michigan State by 10.  Therefore, the ratings need a lot more games to be played before they are worth anything.  Starting in January is the perfect fit, since we have minimal football games remaining.

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 5
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Kent St.	2.8	3.2	3.2
Western Michigan	Ball St.	10.9	10.5	10.8
Wednesday	November 6
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Miami (O)	7.4	7.8	7.5
Thursday	November 7
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana	-11.7	-10.7	-12.1
South Florida	Temple	-3.9	-1.8	-4.3
Friday	November 8
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon St.	Washington	-11.6	-10.2	-12.9
Tulsa	Central Florida	-18.6	-17.1	-18.3
Saturday	November 9
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	LSU	9.2	8.4	9.9
Arizona St.	USC	2.9	1.8	3.1
Arkansas	Western Kentucky	5.8	5.1	3.9
Army	Massachusetts	38.5	36.9	39.1
Boise St.	Wyoming	9.9	7.7	9.6
Boston College	Florida St.	2.6	2.4	3.0
BYU	Liberty	17.2	15.9	17.4
California	Washington St.	-7.1	-6.7	-7.3
Cincinnati	Connecticut	38.8	34.5	40.2
Colorado	Stanford	-5.5	-5.1	-5.6
Duke	Notre Dame	-7.7	-6.5	-7.3
Florida	Vanderbilt	28.5	26.9	29.3
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	9.4	9.5	10.9
Fresno St.	Utah St.	-1.0	0.9	-1.2
Georgia	Missouri	18.1	18.6	18.6
Hawaii	San Jose St.	12.0	11.5	11.1
Kentucky	Tennessee	2.2	1.0	2.0
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	6.4	7.1	6.2
Miami (Fla.)	Louisville	10.7	10.4	11.8
Michigan St.	Illinois	14.0	12.1	13.9
Minnesota	Penn St.	-3.9	-3.1	-4.5
New Mexico	Air Force	-21.4	-20.3	-23.4
North Carolina St.	Clemson	-35.7	-33.8	-36.9
Northwestern	Purdue	1.5	0.5	0.7
Ohio St.	Maryland	42.4	42.6	44.9
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	11.8	10.3	11.2
Old Dominion	UTSA	0.7	-1.1	0.9
Ole Miss	New Mexico St.	33.0	30.0	32.9
San Diego St.	Nevada	14.7	14.9	15.2
SMU	East Carolina	26.3	24.6	27.0
South Carolina	Appalachian St.	8.1	7.4	8.1
Southern Miss.	UAB	7.0	4.0	6.5
TCU	Baylor	-4.1	-1.7	-3.2
Texas	Kansas St.	0.7	1.0	0.6
Texas St.	South Alabama	9.8	7.8	9.8
Troy	Georgia Southern	-2.9	-2.1	-3.5
UL-Monroe	Georgia St.	-4.1	-5.0	-4.3
UTEP	Charlotte	-15.1	-11.5	-14.9
Virginia	Georgia Tech	15.8	17.6	15.9
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest	-1.5	-1.0	-1.5
West Virginia	Texas Tech	1.2	0.7	1.6
Wisconsin	Iowa	4.3	5.7	4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	139.0	138.1	140.1	139.1
2	Clemson	135.3	133.0	136.3	134.9
3	Alabama	135.6	132.5	136.3	134.8
4	L S U	129.4	127.1	129.3	128.6
5	Georgia	126.7	124.8	126.7	126.1
6	Penn St.	124.9	124.1	125.2	124.8
7	Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6
8	Oklahoma	123.5	122.7	123.2	123.1
9	Michigan	123.0	121.6	123.3	122.6
10	Auburn	122.5	120.8	122.3	121.9
11	Oregon	121.2	121.3	122.5	121.7
12	Florida	122.8	119.9	122.3	121.6
13	Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2
14	Iowa	119.1	117.3	119.0	118.4
15	Minnesota	118.1	117.9	117.8	117.9
16	Notre Dame	116.4	114.7	116.0	115.7
17	Texas A&M	116.2	114.6	115.1	115.3
18	Iowa St.	114.8	115.4	115.0	115.1
19	Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5
20	Central Florida	113.5	112.8	114.2	113.5
21	Baylor	113.5	113.5	112.8	113.3
22	Washington St.	113.0	112.2	113.5	112.9
23	Kansas St.	112.3	112.2	112.3	112.3
24	Michigan St.	112.7	111.8	112.2	112.2
25	Mississippi St.	110.8	107.5	114.7	111.0
26	South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9
27	Missouri	111.6	109.2	111.1	110.6
28	Indiana	110.6	109.6	110.3	110.2
29	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.7	109.7	110.1
30	Texas	109.9	110.2	109.9	110.0
31	Tennessee	109.5	109.3	108.6	109.1
32	T C U	107.3	109.8	107.6	108.2
33	Kentucky	108.7	107.3	107.6	107.9
34	Virginia	107.7	107.8	107.9	107.8
35	U S C	107.3	107.8	107.6	107.6
36	Miami (Fla.)	107.2	106.8	108.3	107.4
37	Arizona St.	107.2	106.5	107.7	107.2
38	Cincinnati	107.0	106.0	107.4	106.8
39	Wake Forest	106.5	106.0	107.0	106.5
40	SMU	106.2	105.9	107.1	106.4
41	Memphis	105.9	105.9	106.7	106.2
42	Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1
43	Ole Miss	106.4	105.4	106.3	106.0
44	Boise St.	106.0	105.9	106.1	106.0
45	Pittsburgh	105.7	105.3	106.0	105.7
46	North Carolina	105.4	105.2	106.1	105.6
47	Duke	105.7	105.1	105.6	105.5
48	Air Force	103.7	105.0	104.5	104.4
49	Texas Tech	104.4	104.6	103.5	104.2
50	Stanford	104.0	103.3	103.7	103.7
51	Florida St.	103.6	103.5	103.6	103.6
52	Purdue	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3
53	BYU	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3
54	Boston College	103.2	102.9	103.6	103.2
55	Nebraska	103.1	103.6	102.3	103.0
56	California	102.8	102.4	103.3	102.8
57	West Virginia	102.7	102.3	102.1	102.3
58	Virginia Tech	102.0	102.0	102.5	102.2
59	Illinois	101.7	102.6	101.3	101.9
60	Northwestern	102.5	101.4	101.2	101.7
61	U C L A	101.7	101.6	101.5	101.6
62	Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4
63	Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.2	100.1
64	Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0
65	Wyoming	99.0	101.2	99.6	99.9
66	Louisville	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5
67	Navy	97.9	100.5	98.9	99.1
68	Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1
69	Maryland	99.6	98.5	98.2	98.8
70	Western Michigan	98.8	97.9	98.7	98.5
71	San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.7	98.4
72	Temple	98.3	97.5	99.1	98.3
73	Syracuse	98.5	97.7	97.8	98.0
74	Houston	97.0	97.9	99.1	98.0
75	Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7
76	Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.2	96.5
77	North Carolina St.	96.6	96.2	96.5	96.4
78	Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4
79	Florida Atlantic	95.6	95.5	96.9	96.0
80	Kansas	95.5	96.5	95.4	95.8
81	Fresno St.	95.2	96.2	95.6	95.7
82	Hawaii	95.2	96.6	94.3	95.4
83	Colorado	95.5	95.2	95.1	95.2
84	Georgia Tech	94.8	93.2	95.0	94.3
85	Ohio	94.4	93.5	94.9	94.3
86	Southern Miss.	94.6	93.3	94.8	94.2
87	Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.4	94.3	94.2
88	Army	94.1	94.2	93.4	93.9
89	Buffalo	92.9	93.6	94.4	93.6
90	Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8
91	Tulsa	91.8	92.7	92.9	92.5
92	Arkansas	92.2	92.2	91.6	92.0
93	South Florida	91.4	92.6	91.8	91.9
94	Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4
95	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4
96	Marshall	90.8	90.4	91.6	90.9
97	U A B	90.1	91.8	90.7	90.9
98	North Texas	90.6	90.2	91.1	90.6
99	Ball St.	90.4	89.9	90.4	90.2
100	Western Kentucky	89.4	90.2	90.8	90.1
101	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.6	89.9
102	Middle Tennessee	89.8	89.0	89.9	89.6
103	Northern Illinois	89.5	88.7	89.6	89.3
104	Miami (Ohio)	89.5	88.2	89.9	89.2
105	Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7
106	Central Michigan	88.2	88.8	89.1	88.7
107	Colorado St.	87.1	90.7	87.7	88.5
108	San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
109	Kent St.	87.6	87.4	87.9	87.6
110	Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.5	87.5	87.6
111	Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5
112	Nevada	86.2	87.7	85.5	86.5
113	Charlotte	86.1	86.4	86.5	86.3
114	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9
115	Eastern Michigan	84.2	84.3	84.5	84.4
116	Rutgers	84.1	83.8	82.9	83.6
117	U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
118	East Carolina	82.9	84.3	83.1	83.4
119	Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7
120	New Mexico	79.8	82.2	78.5	80.2
121	Rice	79.5	80.4	78.7	79.6
122	New Mexico St.	76.4	78.5	76.4	77.1
123	Texas-San Antonio	75.6	77.7	75.5	76.2
124	South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1
125	Bowling Green	74.1	73.9	74.1	74.1
126	Old Dominion	73.8	74.0	73.9	73.9
127	Connecticut	71.2	74.5	70.2	72.0
128	U T E P	68.5	72.5	69.1	70.0
129	Akron	66.9	66.7	65.6	66.4
130	Massachusetts	58.6	60.3	57.3	58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.5	112.8	114.2	113.5	4-1	7-2
Cincinnati	107.0	106.0	107.4	106.8	4-0	7-1
Temple	98.3	97.5	99.1	98.3	2-2	5-3
South Florida	91.4	92.6	91.8	91.9	2-2	4-4
East Carolina	82.9	84.3	83.1	83.4	0-5	3-6
Connecticut	71.2	74.5	70.2	72.0	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	106.2	105.9	107.1	106.4	4-1	8-1
Memphis	105.9	105.9	106.7	106.2	4-1	8-1
Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.2	100.1	3-2	6-3
Navy	97.9	100.5	98.9	99.1	5-1	7-1
Houston	97.0	97.9	99.1	98.0	1-4	3-6
Tulsa	91.8	92.7	92.9	92.5	0-5	2-7
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.3	133.0	136.3	134.9	6-0	9-0
Wake Forest	106.5	106.0	107.0	106.5	3-1	7-1
Florida St.	103.6	103.5	103.6	103.6	3-4	4-5
Boston College	103.2	102.9	103.6	103.2	3-3	5-4
Louisville	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5	3-2	5-3
Syracuse	98.5	97.7	97.8	98.0	0-5	3-6
North Carolina St.	96.6	96.2	96.5	96.4	1-3	4-4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.7	107.8	107.9	107.8	4-2	6-3
Miami (Fla.)	107.2	106.8	108.3	107.4	3-3	5-4
Pittsburgh	105.7	105.3	106.0	105.7	3-2	6-3
North Carolina	105.4	105.2	106.1	105.6	3-3	4-5
Duke	105.7	105.1	105.6	105.5	2-3	4-4
Virginia Tech	102.0	102.0	102.5	102.2	3-2	5-3
Georgia Tech	94.8	93.2	95.0	94.3	1-4	2-6
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.5	122.7	123.2	123.1	4-1	7-1
Iowa St.	114.8	115.4	115.0	115.1	3-2	5-3
Baylor	113.5	113.5	112.8	113.3	5-0	8-0
Kansas St.	112.3	112.2	112.3	112.3	3-2	6-2
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.7	109.7	110.1	3-3	6-3
Texas	109.9	110.2	109.9	110.0	3-2	5-3
T C U	107.3	109.8	107.6	108.2	2-3	4-4
Texas Tech	104.4	104.6	103.5	104.2	1-4	3-5
West Virginia	102.7	102.3	102.1	102.3	1-4	3-5
Kansas	95.5	96.5	95.4	95.8	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	139.0	138.1	140.1	139.1	5-0	8-0
Penn St.	124.9	124.1	125.2	124.8	5-0	8-0
Michigan	123.0	121.6	123.3	122.6	4-2	7-2
Michigan St.	112.7	111.8	112.2	112.2	2-3	4-4
Indiana	110.6	109.6	110.3	110.2	4-2	7-2
Maryland	99.6	98.5	98.2	98.8	1-5	3-6
Rutgers	84.1	83.8	82.9	83.6	0-6	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2	3-2	6-2
Iowa	119.1	117.3	119.0	118.4	3-2	6-2
Minnesota	118.1	117.9	117.8	117.9	5-0	8-0
Purdue	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3	2-4	3-6
Nebraska	103.1	103.6	102.3	103.0	2-4	4-5
Illinois	101.7	102.6	101.3	101.9	3-3	5-4
Northwestern	102.5	101.4	101.2	101.7	0-6	1-7
Big Ten Averages	111.6	111.0	111.2	111.3
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	95.6	95.5	96.9	96.0	4-1	6-3
Marshall	90.8	90.4	91.6	90.9	4-1	6-3
Western Kentucky	89.4	90.2	90.8	90.1	4-2	5-4
Middle Tennessee	89.8	89.0	89.9	89.6	2-3	3-6
Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.5	87.5	87.6	3-3	5-4
Charlotte	86.1	86.4	86.5	86.3	2-3	4-5
Old Dominion	73.8	74.0	73.9	73.9	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	93.3	94.8	94.2	3-1	5-3
Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.4	94.3	94.2	4-0	7-1
U A B	90.1	91.8	90.7	90.9	3-1	6-2
North Texas	90.6	90.2	91.1	90.6	3-2	4-5
Rice	79.5	80.4	78.7	79.6	0-5	0-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.6	77.7	75.5	76.2	2-2	3-5
U T E P	68.5	72.5	69.1	70.0	0-5	1-7
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	116.4	114.7	116.0	115.7	x	6-2
BYU	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3	x	4-4
Army	94.1	94.2	93.4	93.9	x	3-6
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.6	89.9	x	6-3
New Mexico St.	76.4	78.5	76.4	77.1	x	0-8
Massachusetts	58.6	60.3	57.3	58.7	x	1-8
Indep. Averages	89.7	90.3	89.3	89.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	94.4	93.5	94.9	94.3	3-1	4-4
Buffalo	92.9	93.6	94.4	93.6	3-2	5-4
Miami (Ohio)	89.5	88.2	89.9	89.2	3-1	4-4
Kent St.	87.6	87.4	87.9	87.6	2-2	3-5
Bowling Green	74.1	73.9	74.1	74.1	2-3	3-6
Akron	66.9	66.7	65.6	66.4	0-5	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.8	97.9	98.7	98.5	3-2	5-4
Ball St.	90.4	89.9	90.4	90.2	3-1	4-4
Northern Illinois	89.5	88.7	89.6	89.3	2-3	3-6
Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7	2-2	5-3
Central Michigan	88.2	88.8	89.1	88.7	4-2	6-4
Eastern Michigan	84.2	84.3	84.5	84.4	1-4	4-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.0	105.9	106.1	106.0	4-0	7-1
Air Force	103.7	105.0	104.5	104.4	4-1	7-2
Wyoming	99.0	101.2	99.6	99.9	3-1	6-2
Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1	3-1	4-4
Colorado St.	87.1	90.7	87.7	88.5	3-2	4-5
New Mexico	79.8	82.2	78.5	80.2	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.7	98.4	4-1	7-1
Fresno St.	95.2	96.2	95.6	95.7	2-2	4-4
Hawaii	95.2	96.6	94.3	95.4	2-3	5-4
San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3	1-4	4-5
Nevada	86.2	87.7	85.5	86.5	2-3	5-4
U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5	1-5	2-7
MWC Averages	93.3	94.8	93.3	93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.2	121.3	122.5	121.7	6-0	8-1
Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5	2-4	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	112.2	113.5	112.9	1-4	4-4
Stanford	104.0	103.3	103.7	103.7	3-3	4-4
California	102.8	102.4	103.3	102.8	1-4	4-4
Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0	3-2	4-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6	5-1	8-1
U S C	107.3	107.8	107.6	107.6	4-2	5-4
Arizona St.	107.2	106.5	107.7	107.2	2-3	5-3
U C L A	101.7	101.6	101.5	101.6	4-2	4-5
Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.2	96.5	2-4	4-5
Colorado	95.5	95.2	95.1	95.2	1-5	3-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.0	107.5	107.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.7	124.8	126.7	126.1	4-1	7-1
Florida	122.8	119.9	122.3	121.6	5-2	7-2
South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9	3-4	4-5
Missouri	111.6	109.2	111.1	110.6	2-2	5-3
Tennessee	109.5	109.3	108.6	109.1	2-3	4-5
Kentucky	108.7	107.3	107.6	107.9	2-4	4-4
Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4	1-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.6	132.5	136.3	134.8	5-0	8-0
L S U	129.4	127.1	129.3	128.6	4-0	8-0
Auburn	122.5	120.8	122.3	121.9	4-2	7-2
Texas A&M	116.2	114.6	115.1	115.3	3-2	6-3
Mississippi St.	110.8	107.5	114.7	111.0	2-4	4-5
Ole Miss	106.4	105.4	106.3	106.0	2-4	3-6
Arkansas	92.2	92.2	91.6	92.0	0-6	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	112.6	114.2	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1	4-1	7-1
Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7	3-1	5-3
Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8	3-1	6-2
Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4	1-3	3-5
Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5	1-3	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4	3-1	6-2
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4	3-2	5-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9	2-2	3-5
Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7	1-3	2-6
South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1	0-4	1-7
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.7
2	Big Ten	111.3
3	Big 12	109.4
4	Pac-12	107.3
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American	97.3
7	Mountain West	93.8
8	Sun Belt	91.0
9	Independents	89.8
10	Mid-American	87.1
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Alabama
4	Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Navy
5	SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Boise St.]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Tulane	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Oregon St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Southern Miss.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	Michigan
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Arizona St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Western Kentucky	[Fresno St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Ball St.]	Pittsburgh
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Wake Forest	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	Mississippi St.
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Louisville	Washington St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	[Stanford]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Appalachian St.	Air Force
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Central Florida	[Duke]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Wyoming
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	October 31
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	16.9	16.3	17.3
Baylor	West Virginia	14.9	15.7	15.4
Friday	November 1
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Connecticut	Navy	-20.7	-19.8	-22.6
Saturday	November 2
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	6.2	5.9	6.4
Massachusetts	Liberty	-24.7	-23.9	-26.1
Florida Int’l.	Old Dominion	17.4	16.9	17.3
Coastal Carolina	Troy	-2.6	-2.1	-2.3
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	-7.6	-9.1	-7.4
Purdue	Nebraska	3.5	2.6	3.7
Central Florida	Houston	19.9	18.3	18.7
Maryland	Michigan	-17.1	-16.4	-18.7
Indiana	Northwestern	7.1	7.1	8.0
Bowling Green	Akron	5.9	5.7	7.0
Illinois	Rutgers	19.3	20.6	19.8
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-24.6	-21.8	-25.2
Syracuse	Boston College	6.6	6.3	5.7
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	-0.6	-1.1	-1.5
North Carolina	Virginia	1.8	1.6	2.8
Utah St.	BYU	4.4	3.6	5.2
Notre Dame	Virginia Tech	19.2	17.4	18.5
USC	Oregon	-5.7	-5.2	-6.6
UCLA	Colorado	7.9	7.8	7.6
Kansas	Kansas St.	-12.0	-10.9	-11.7
Louisiana	Texas St.	22.1	21.5	22.6
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	17.4	16.9	18.1
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	-7.2	-5.5	-6.5
Rice	Marshall	-8.4	-6.7	-10.0
Colorado St.	UNLV	4.3	6.5	5.1
Memphis	SMU	2.0	2.1	1.3
Texas A&M	UTSA	44.8	40.6	43.9
Air Force	Army	13.5	14.9	15.5
Arizona	Oregon St.	4.3	3.1	4.6
Tennessee	UAB	22.4	20.0	20.2
Auburn	Ole Miss	21.3	20.4	21.5
Florida (n)	Georgia	-3.5	-4.5	-3.8
Oklahoma St.	TCU	5.7	3.5	4.7
North Texas	UTEP	24.4	19.5	23.9
Tulane	Tulsa	10.9	10.8	10.1
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	-11.2	-7.3	-15.8
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-5.2	-4.0	-5.2
Western Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	-1.5	-0.3	-0.8
UL-Monroe	Arkansas St.	-2.6	-2.1	-2.4
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	2.1	2.9	1.5
Nevada	New Mexico	8.7	7.4	8.8
Washington	Utah	-6.3	-5.7	-6.2
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-16.1	-13.8	-16.7
Hawaii	Fresno St.	5.4	6.0	4.3
FBS vs.	FCS
Clemson	Wofford	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	138.7	137.8	139.8	138.8
2	Clemson	135.0	132.7	136.0	134.6
3	Alabama	135.3	132.2	136.0	134.5
4	L S U	129.1	126.8	129.0	128.3
5	Georgia	126.5	124.6	126.4	125.8
6	Penn St.	124.6	123.8	124.9	124.5
7	Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6
8	Auburn	123.7	122.0	123.7	123.1
9	Oklahoma	123.2	122.4	122.9	122.8
10	Florida	123.0	120.1	122.6	121.9
11	Michigan	121.5	119.9	121.8	121.1
12	Wisconsin	120.1	119.7	120.0	119.9
13	Oregon	118.4	118.4	119.6	118.8
14	Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1
15	Minnesota	117.8	117.6	117.5	117.6
16	Notre Dame	117.6	115.8	117.3	116.9
17	Texas A&M	117.4	115.6	116.4	116.5
18	Iowa St.	114.5	115.1	114.7	114.8
19	Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5
20	Baylor	114.3	114.5	113.9	114.2
21	Central Florida	113.7	113.0	114.5	113.7
22	Washington St.	112.7	111.9	113.2	112.6
23	Michigan St.	112.4	111.5	111.9	111.9
24	South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9
25	Missouri	111.3	108.9	110.8	110.3
26	Kansas St.	110.4	110.3	110.2	110.3
27	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.5	110.0
28	U S C	109.6	110.2	110.0	110.0
29	Texas	109.6	109.9	109.6	109.7
30	Mississippi St.	109.1	105.5	113.1	109.2
31	Tennessee	109.5	109.1	108.3	109.0
32	Cincinnati	108.6	107.4	109.2	108.4
33	T C U	107.3	110.0	107.8	108.4
34	Indiana	108.8	107.7	108.4	108.3
35	Appalachian St.	108.7	107.8	108.4	108.3
36	Kentucky	108.4	107.0	107.3	107.6
37	Virginia	107.2	107.2	107.1	107.2
38	SMU	106.7	106.5	107.9	107.0
39	Arizona St.	106.9	106.2	107.4	106.9
40	Boise St.	106.4	106.1	106.7	106.4
41	North Carolina	105.9	105.8	106.9	106.2
42	Memphis	105.7	105.6	106.2	105.8
43	Florida St.	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7
44	Miami (Fla.)	105.5	104.9	106.4	105.6
45	Pittsburgh	105.6	105.3	105.7	105.5
46	Duke	105.4	104.8	105.3	105.2
47	Air Force	104.3	105.7	105.4	105.1
48	Ole Miss	105.5	104.5	105.2	105.1
49	Northwestern	104.6	103.6	103.4	103.9
50	Texas Tech	104.1	104.3	103.2	103.9
51	Wake Forest	103.8	103.2	104.1	103.7
52	Stanford	103.7	103.0	103.4	103.4
53	Purdue	103.6	103.3	102.9	103.3
54	Nebraska	103.1	103.7	102.3	103.0
55	Syracuse	103.4	102.7	102.8	103.0
56	California	102.5	102.1	103.0	102.5
57	Utah St.	102.5	101.7	103.3	102.5
58	West Virginia	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.9
59	Virginia Tech	101.3	101.4	101.7	101.5
60	Illinois	101.2	102.1	100.6	101.3
61	Louisiana	101.1	101.2	101.0	101.1
62	U C L A	101.0	100.8	100.6	100.8
63	Maryland	101.4	100.5	100.0	100.6
64	Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.1	100.1
65	Boston College	99.8	99.4	100.1	99.8
66	Wyoming	98.7	100.9	99.3	99.6
67	BYU	99.6	99.6	99.6	99.6
68	North Carolina St.	99.6	99.3	99.7	99.5
69	Louisville	99.3	99.1	99.2	99.2
70	Arizona	98.9	98.7	98.6	98.7
71	Western Michigan	98.6	97.7	98.5	98.3
72	San Diego St.	97.6	99.3	97.4	98.1
73	Temple	98.0	97.2	98.8	98.0
74	Oregon St.	97.6	98.6	97.1	97.8
75	Houston	96.8	97.7	98.8	97.7
76	Kansas	96.9	97.9	97.0	97.3
77	Navy	95.9	98.4	96.8	97.1
78	Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4
79	Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0
80	Hawaii	95.8	97.3	95.0	96.0
81	Fresno St.	94.9	95.8	95.2	95.3
82	Arkansas	94.9	95.2	94.2	94.8
83	Florida Atlantic	94.5	94.2	95.5	94.7
84	Georgia Tech	94.9	93.2	95.3	94.5
85	Georgia Southern	94.8	94.5	94.0	94.5
86	Ohio	94.2	93.3	94.7	94.1
87	Northern Illinois	94.3	93.4	94.5	94.1
88	Southern Miss.	94.4	93.1	94.6	94.0
89	Louisiana Tech	93.8	94.2	94.1	94.0
90	Army	93.8	93.8	92.8	93.5
91	Georgia St.	92.3	93.6	92.0	92.6
92	Tulsa	91.8	92.7	93.0	92.5
93	Troy	92.1	92.7	91.2	92.0
94	Middle Tennessee	91.9	91.1	92.2	91.7
95	South Florida	91.1	92.3	91.5	91.6
96	Western Kentucky	90.5	91.5	92.2	91.4
97	Buffalo	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1
98	U A B	90.1	92.0	91.0	91.1
99	Arkansas St.	91.1	91.3	90.8	91.1
100	Marshall	90.6	90.0	91.4	90.7
101	North Texas	90.5	89.8	90.8	90.4
102	Ball St.	90.2	89.7	90.2	90.0
103	Miami (Ohio)	89.3	88.0	89.7	89.0
104	Toledo	88.2	88.5	88.9	88.5
105	Liberty	87.9	89.0	88.0	88.3
106	Florida Int’l.	88.3	88.1	88.3	88.2
107	San Jose St.	87.3	89.3	87.1	87.9
108	Eastern Michigan	87.3	87.5	87.8	87.6
109	Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4
110	Colorado St.	85.9	89.6	86.4	87.3
111	Coastal Carolina	87.0	88.1	86.4	87.2
112	Nevada	86.1	87.4	85.2	86.2
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.0	86.7	85.8	86.2
114	Central Michigan	84.7	85.4	85.5	85.2
115	U N L V	84.6	86.1	84.3	85.0
116	Charlotte	84.3	84.6	84.5	84.5
117	Rutgers	84.9	84.6	83.9	84.5
118	Texas St.	82.0	82.7	81.4	82.0
119	East Carolina	81.0	82.6	81.0	81.5
120	New Mexico	79.9	82.5	78.8	80.4
121	Rice	79.7	80.8	78.9	79.8
122	New Mexico St.	76.2	78.3	76.2	76.9
123	Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.0	74.5	75.4
124	South Alabama	74.3	76.8	73.5	74.9
125	Connecticut	73.2	76.6	72.3	74.0
126	Old Dominion	73.5	73.7	73.4	73.5
127	Bowling Green	72.7	72.4	72.6	72.6
128	U T E P	68.6	72.9	69.4	70.3
129	Akron	69.4	69.3	68.2	68.9
130	Massachusetts	60.7	62.6	59.4	60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.7	113.0	114.5	113.7	3-1	6-2
Cincinnati	108.6	107.4	109.2	108.4	3-0	6-1
Temple	98.0	97.2	98.8	98.0	2-2	5-3
South Florida	91.1	92.3	91.5	91.6	2-2	4-4
East Carolina	81.0	82.6	81.0	81.5	0-4	3-5
Connecticut	73.2	76.6	72.3	74.0	0-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	106.7	106.5	107.9	107.0	4-0	8-0
Memphis	105.7	105.6	106.2	105.8	3-1	7-1
Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.1	100.1	2-2	5-3
Houston	96.8	97.7	98.8	97.7	1-3	3-5
Navy	95.9	98.4	96.8	97.1	4-1	6-1
Tulsa	91.8	92.7	93.0	92.5	0-4	2-6
AAC Averages	96.8	97.5	97.5	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.0	132.7	136.0	134.6	6-0	8-0
Florida St.	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7	3-3	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	103.2	104.1	103.7	2-1	6-1
Syracuse	103.4	102.7	102.8	103.0	0-4	3-5
Boston College	99.8	99.4	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
North Carolina St.	99.6	99.3	99.7	99.5	1-2	4-3
Louisville	99.3	99.1	99.2	99.2	3-2	5-3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.2	107.2	107.1	107.2	3-2	5-3
North Carolina	105.9	105.8	106.9	106.2	3-2	4-4
Miami (Fla.)	105.5	104.9	106.4	105.6	2-3	4-4
Pittsburgh	105.6	105.3	105.7	105.5	2-2	5-3
Duke	105.4	104.8	105.3	105.2	2-3	4-4
Virginia Tech	101.3	101.4	101.7	101.5	3-2	5-2
Georgia Tech	94.9	93.2	95.3	94.5	1-3	2-5
ACC Averages	105.2	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.4	122.9	122.8	4-1	7-1
Iowa St.	114.5	115.1	114.7	114.8	3-2	5-3
Baylor	114.3	114.5	113.9	114.2	4-0	7-0
Kansas St.	110.4	110.3	110.2	110.3	2-2	5-2
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.5	110.0	2-3	5-3
Texas	109.6	109.9	109.6	109.7	3-2	5-3
T C U	107.3	110.0	107.8	108.4	2-2	4-3
Texas Tech	104.1	104.3	103.2	103.9	1-4	3-5
West Virginia	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.9	1-3	3-4
Kansas	96.9	97.9	97.0	97.3	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	138.7	137.8	139.8	138.8	5-0	8-0
Penn St.	124.6	123.8	124.9	124.5	5-0	8-0
Michigan	121.5	119.9	121.8	121.1	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	112.4	111.5	111.9	111.9	2-3	4-4
Indiana	108.8	107.7	108.4	108.3	3-2	6-2
Maryland	101.4	100.5	100.0	100.6	1-4	3-5
Rutgers	84.9	84.6	83.9	84.5	0-5	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.1	119.7	120.0	119.9	3-2	6-2
Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1	3-2	6-2
Minnesota	117.8	117.6	117.5	117.6	5-0	8-0
Northwestern	104.6	103.6	103.4	103.9	0-5	1-6
Purdue	103.6	103.3	102.9	103.3	1-4	2-6
Nebraska	103.1	103.7	102.3	103.0	2-3	4-4
Illinois	101.2	102.1	100.6	101.3	2-3	4-4
Big Ten Averages	111.5	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	94.5	94.2	95.5	94.7	3-1	5-3
Middle Tennessee	91.9	91.1	92.2	91.7	2-2	3-5
Western Kentucky	90.5	91.5	92.2	91.4	4-1	5-3
Marshall	90.6	90.0	91.4	90.7	3-1	5-3
Florida Int’l.	88.3	88.1	88.3	88.2	2-3	4-4
Charlotte	84.3	84.6	84.5	84.5	1-3	3-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.7	73.4	73.5	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.4	93.1	94.6	94.0	3-1	5-3
Louisiana Tech	93.8	94.2	94.1	94.0	4-0	7-1
U A B	90.1	92.0	91.0	91.1	3-1	6-1
North Texas	90.5	89.8	90.8	90.4	2-2	3-5
Rice	79.7	80.8	78.9	79.8	0-4	0-8
Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.0	74.5	75.4	2-2	3-4
U T E P	68.6	72.9	69.4	70.3	0-4	1-6
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	117.6	115.8	117.3	116.9	x	5-2
BYU	99.6	99.6	99.6	99.6	x	3-4
Army	93.8	93.8	92.8	93.5	x	3-5
Liberty	87.9	89.0	88.0	88.3	x	5-3
New Mexico St.	76.2	78.3	76.2	76.9	x	0-8
Massachusetts	60.7	62.6	59.4	60.9	x	1-7
Indep. Averages	89.3	89.8	88.9	89.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	94.2	93.3	94.7	94.1	3-1	4-4
Buffalo	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1	2-2	4-4
Miami (Ohio)	89.3	88.0	89.7	89.0	3-1	4-4
Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4	2-2	3-5
Bowling Green	72.7	72.4	72.6	72.6	1-3	2-6
Akron	69.4	69.3	68.2	68.9	0-4	0-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.6	97.7	98.5	98.3	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	94.3	93.4	94.5	94.1	2-2	3-5
Ball St.	90.2	89.7	90.2	90.0	3-1	4-4
Toledo	88.2	88.5	88.9	88.5	2-2	5-3
Eastern Michigan	87.3	87.5	87.8	87.6	1-3	4-4
Central Michigan	84.7	85.4	85.5	85.2	3-2	5-4
MAC Averages	87.2	87.0	87.5	87.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.4	106.1	106.7	106.4	3-0	6-1
Air Force	104.3	105.7	105.4	105.1	4-1	6-2
Utah St.	102.5	101.7	103.3	102.5	3-1	4-3
Wyoming	98.7	100.9	99.3	99.6	3-1	6-2
Colorado St.	85.9	89.6	86.4	87.3	2-2	3-5
New Mexico	79.9	82.5	78.8	80.4	0-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.3	97.4	98.1	4-1	7-1
Hawaii	95.8	97.3	95.0	96.0	2-2	5-3
Fresno St.	94.9	95.8	95.2	95.3	1-2	3-4
San Jose St.	87.3	89.3	87.1	87.9	1-3	4-4
Nevada	86.1	87.4	85.2	86.2	1-3	4-4
U N L V	84.6	86.1	84.3	85.0	1-4	2-6
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.7	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	118.4	118.4	119.6	118.8	5-0	7-1
Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5	2-3	5-3
Washington St.	112.7	111.9	113.2	112.6	1-4	4-4
Stanford	103.7	103.0	103.4	103.4	3-3	4-4
California	102.5	102.1	103.0	102.5	1-4	4-4
Oregon St.	97.6	98.6	97.1	97.8	2-2	3-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6	4-1	7-1
U S C	109.6	110.2	110.0	110.0	4-1	5-3
Arizona St.	106.9	106.2	107.4	106.9	2-3	5-3
U C L A	101.0	100.8	100.6	100.8	3-2	3-5
Arizona	98.9	98.7	98.6	98.7	2-3	4-4
Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0	1-4	3-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.9	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.5	124.6	126.4	125.8	3-1	6-1
Florida	123.0	120.1	122.6	121.9	5-1	7-1
South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9	2-4	3-5
Missouri	111.3	108.9	110.8	110.3	2-2	5-3
Tennessee	109.5	109.1	108.3	109.0	2-3	3-5
Kentucky	108.4	107.0	107.3	107.6	2-4	4-4
Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4	1-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	132.2	136.0	134.5	5-0	8-0
L S U	129.1	126.8	129.0	128.3	4-0	8-0
Auburn	123.7	122.0	123.7	123.1	3-2	6-2
Texas A&M	117.4	115.6	116.4	116.5	3-2	5-3
Mississippi St.	109.1	105.5	113.1	109.2	1-4	3-5
Ole Miss	105.5	104.5	105.2	105.1	2-3	3-5
Arkansas	94.9	95.2	94.2	94.8	0-5	2-6
SEC Averages	114.5	112.7	114.3	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	108.7	107.8	108.4	108.3	4-0	7-0
Georgia Southern	94.8	94.5	94.0	94.5	2-1	4-3
Georgia St.	92.3	93.6	92.0	92.6	3-1	6-2
Troy	92.1	92.7	91.2	92.0	1-2	3-4
Coastal Carolina	87.0	88.1	86.4	87.2	0-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.1	101.2	101.0	101.1	2-1	5-2
Arkansas St.	91.1	91.3	90.8	91.1	2-2	4-4
Louisiana-Monroe	86.0	86.7	85.8	86.2	2-1	3-4
Texas St.	82.0	82.7	81.4	82.0	1-2	2-5
South Alabama	74.3	76.8	73.5	74.9	0-4	1-7
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.5	91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.8
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.3
4	Pac-12	107.1
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American	97.3
7	Mountain West	94.2
8	Sun Belt	91.0
9	Independents	89.3
10	Mid-American	87.2
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	SMU
2	Appalachian St.
3	Cincinnati
4	Navy
5	Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Miami (O)]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Eastern Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Illiois
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Stanford
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia Tech	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Cincinnati	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	UAB	[Utah St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Air Force]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Georgia	Penn St.
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Buffalo]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Duke]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	San Jose St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Notre Dame
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Florida
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Wisconsin
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Hawaii
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	LSU
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Thursday	October 24
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	SMU	-8.1	-7.1	-7.5
Friday	October 25
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Colorado	USC	-11.1	-12.2	-12.3
Saturday	October 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Massachusetts	Connecticut	-7.6	-9.3	-7.6
Purdue	Illinois	11.4	10.5	11.8
Army	San Jose St.	13.6	11.4	13.3
Georgia St.	Troy	-2.2	-1.3	-1.6
Clemson	Boston College	33.5	30.9	33.7
Tulsa	Memphis	-12.8	-12.0	-12.5
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	3.5	3.7	3.8
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	9.6	11.6	3.9
Temple	Central Florida	-7.0	-7.0	-6.7
Western Michigan	Bowling Green	25.8	24.9	25.5
Nebraska	Indiana	-2.1	0.0	-2.1
Buffalo	Central Michigan	5.9	5.6	6.0
Northwestern	Iowa	-9.7	-8.8	-10.7
East Carolina	South Florida	-2.0	-1.2	-2.0
Florida St.	Syracuse	3.0	3.9	3.4
Rutgers	Liberty	-2.4	-4.2	-3.9
Rice	Southern Miss.	-11.8	-8.8	-12.5
Utah	California	20.2	19.4	20.2
Wyoming	Nevada	12.9	13.5	13.7
Air Force	Utah St.	0.0	2.5	-0.1
New Mexico	Hawaii	-12.2	-10.6	-12.4
Marshall	Western Kentucky	2.8	1.2	2.1
Stanford	Arizona	7.6	6.7	7.1
Oregon	Washington St.	10.1	11.2	11.2
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	19.2	16.3	19.4
Kentucky	Missouri	-5.0	-4.0	-6.2
North Carolina	Duke	1.7	2.2	3.0
Michigan St.	Penn St.	-5.4	-5.3	-5.8
Kent St.	Miami (O)	2.2	3.7	2.5
South Alabama	Appalachian St.	-32.1	-28.5	-32.7
Georgia Southern	New Mexico St.	18.2	15.2	16.8
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	10.3	10.6	11.2
Middle Tennessee	Florida Int’l.	0.2	-0.8	0.1
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	-13.0	-12.1	-13.9
Ball St.	Ohio U	1.1	1.7	0.8
Alabama	Arkansas	43.1	39.2	44.5
Tennessee	South Carolina	-3.3	-2.0	-4.7
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	-14.6	-14.0	-14.8
Minnesota	Maryland	12.7	13.2	13.3
Navy	Tulane	-1.3	0.6	-1.2
TCU	Texas	-4.5	-2.0	-4.4
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	4.8	5.4	4.4
Louisville	Virginia	-8.1	-8.7	-8.5
Northern Illinois	Akron	22.3	21.0	23.4
Kansas	Texas Tech	-7.7	-6.7	-6.8
Charlotte	North Texas	-5.1	-4.1	-5.6
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	18.7	18.0	19.8
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	8.8	8.0	8.7
LSU	Auburn	9.0	8.4	9.4
UTEP	Louisiana Tech	-23.1	-18.4	-22.6
Michigan	Notre Dame	1.5	1.4	1.6
UCLA	Arizona St.	-6.2	-5.7	-7.7
UNLV	San Diego St.	-11.6	-12.1	-12.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	137.4	136.4	138.4	137.4
2	Alabama	135.3	132.0	136.0	134.4
3	Clemson	132.6	130.0	133.4	132.0
4	L S U	129.4	127.1	129.5	128.7
5	Oklahoma	125.8	125.1	125.7	125.5
6	Georgia	126.2	124.3	126.1	125.5
7	Auburn	123.4	121.7	123.2	122.8
8	Penn St.	122.7	121.8	122.8	122.5
9	Wisconsin	121.7	121.4	121.7	121.6
10	Florida	122.7	119.8	122.3	121.6
11	Utah	121.6	120.4	122.2	121.4
12	Notre Dame	120.5	118.8	120.4	119.9
13	Oregon	119.1	119.2	120.5	119.6
14	Michigan	118.9	117.2	119.0	118.4
15	Iowa	117.7	115.8	117.5	117.0
16	Iowa St.	115.9	116.6	116.2	116.2
17	Texas A&M	116.7	115.0	115.3	115.7
18	Washington	114.0	113.7	115.0	114.2
19	Minnesota	114.2	113.9	113.7	113.9
20	Baylor	114.0	114.2	113.6	113.9
21	Michigan St.	114.3	113.5	114.0	113.9
22	Missouri	114.2	111.8	114.0	113.3
23	South Carolina	113.6	111.9	113.4	113.0
24	Texas	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8
25	Washington St.	112.0	111.1	112.3	111.8
26	U S C	109.9	110.7	110.6	110.4
27	Central Florida	110.4	109.6	111.0	110.3
28	Mississippi St.	110.1	106.4	114.5	110.3
29	Virginia	108.8	109.0	108.9	108.9
30	Oklahoma St.	108.6	109.0	108.0	108.5
31	Arizona St.	108.4	107.7	109.2	108.5
32	Appalachian St.	108.8	107.8	108.6	108.4
33	Cincinnati	108.3	107.1	108.9	108.1
34	Kansas St.	108.3	108.1	107.9	108.1
35	Indiana	108.5	107.2	107.9	107.9
36	SMU	107.2	107.0	108.5	107.6
37	Memphis	106.8	106.8	107.5	107.0
38	Pittsburgh	106.6	106.4	106.9	106.6
39	Tennessee	107.3	106.9	105.7	106.6
40	Purdue	106.8	106.6	106.3	106.6
41	T C U	105.2	108.0	105.5	106.2
42	Boise St.	106.1	105.8	106.4	106.1
43	North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1
44	Texas Tech	105.8	106.0	105.0	105.6
45	Duke	105.6	104.9	105.3	105.3
46	Kentucky	106.2	104.8	104.8	105.3
47	Utah St.	104.9	104.0	105.9	104.9
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.8	104.1	105.5	104.8
49	Ole Miss	105.2	104.2	104.9	104.8
50	Northwestern	105.4	104.5	104.3	104.7
51	Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6
52	California	104.3	104.0	105.0	104.4
53	Syracuse	104.5	103.8	104.1	104.1
54	Maryland	104.5	103.7	103.3	103.8
55	Nebraska	103.4	104.2	102.8	103.5
56	Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4
57	Stanford	103.6	102.7	103.1	103.1
58	Air Force	101.9	103.4	102.8	102.7
59	Boston College	102.2	102.1	102.7	102.3
60	West Virginia	102.1	101.5	101.2	101.6
61	Virginia Tech	101.0	101.1	101.4	101.2
62	Temple	100.8	100.1	101.8	100.9
63	Louisiana	100.9	101.0	100.8	100.9
64	Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.4	100.2
65	Fresno St.	99.0	99.8	99.5	99.4
66	BYU	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.3
67	North Carolina St.	99.3	99.0	99.4	99.2
68	Arizona	99.0	99.0	98.9	99.0
69	U C L A	99.2	99.0	98.5	98.9
70	San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9
71	Illinois	98.3	99.1	97.5	98.3
72	Wyoming	97.3	99.4	97.6	98.1
73	Houston	96.6	97.5	98.5	97.5
74	Oregon St.	97.3	98.3	96.8	97.5
75	Louisville	97.7	97.3	97.4	97.4
76	Western Michigan	97.5	96.4	97.2	97.0
77	Navy	95.5	98.1	96.2	96.6
78	Vanderbilt	97.0	95.7	95.7	96.1
79	Hawaii	95.7	97.0	94.9	95.9
80	Army	96.0	95.9	95.2	95.7
81	Colorado	95.9	95.5	95.4	95.6
82	Kansas	95.2	96.2	95.2	95.5
83	Arkansas	95.2	95.7	94.5	95.2
84	Georgia Tech	94.6	92.9	95.0	94.2
85	Troy	94.3	94.8	93.4	94.2
86	Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.0	94.3	94.1
87	Southern Miss.	94.2	92.6	94.3	93.7
88	Georgia Southern	93.3	92.7	92.2	92.8
89	Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7
90	Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.4	92.8	92.0
91	Northern Illinois	92.2	91.1	92.3	91.9
92	Tulsa	91.0	91.8	92.0	91.6
93	Western Kentucky	90.6	91.8	92.4	91.6
94	Florida Int’l.	91.4	91.4	91.6	91.5
95	Ball St.	91.5	91.1	91.6	91.4
96	North Texas	91.2	90.5	91.7	91.1
97	U A B	89.9	91.8	90.8	90.9
98	Marshall	90.4	90.0	91.5	90.6
99	Georgia St.	89.6	91.0	89.3	90.0
100	Buffalo	89.3	89.8	90.4	89.8
101	Arkansas St.	89.7	89.8	89.2	89.6
102	Liberty	89.0	90.3	89.3	89.5
103	Middle Tennessee	89.1	88.1	89.2	88.8
104	South Florida	88.3	89.3	88.5	88.7
105	Toledo	88.3	88.6	89.0	88.6
106	Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4
107	Miami (Ohio)	88.5	87.0	88.7	88.1
108	Nevada	87.5	88.9	86.9	87.8
109	Eastern Michigan	87.2	87.4	87.7	87.5
110	Coastal Carolina	86.8	87.9	86.2	87.0
111	Central Michigan	85.9	86.7	86.9	86.5
112	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.5	85.6	86.0
113	San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0
114	U N L V	84.2	85.6	83.7	84.5
115	East Carolina	83.8	85.6	84.0	84.5
116	Colorado St.	82.8	86.6	83.1	84.2
117	Charlotte	83.6	83.9	83.6	83.7
118	Texas St.	83.4	84.2	83.0	83.5
119	Rutgers	84.1	83.6	82.9	83.5
120	New Mexico	80.0	82.8	79.0	80.6
121	Rice	79.9	81.3	79.2	80.2
122	New Mexico St.	78.2	80.6	78.5	79.1
123	Old Dominion	76.4	76.8	76.4	76.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.8	74.3	75.2
125	South Alabama	74.2	76.8	73.3	74.8
126	Bowling Green	74.1	74.0	74.2	74.1
127	Connecticut	71.9	75.4	70.8	72.7
128	Akron	72.5	72.6	71.4	72.1
129	U T E P	68.4	73.1	69.2	70.2
130	Massachusetts	62.3	64.1	61.2	62.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	110.4	109.6	111.0	110.3	2-1	5-2
Cincinnati	108.3	107.1	108.9	108.1	3-0	6-1
Temple	100.8	100.1	101.8	100.9	2-1	5-2
South Florida	88.3	89.3	88.5	88.7	1-2	3-4
East Carolina	83.8	85.6	84.0	84.5	0-3	3-4
Connecticut	71.9	75.4	70.8	72.7	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	107.2	107.0	108.5	107.6	3-0	7-0
Memphis	106.8	106.8	107.5	107.0	2-1	6-1
Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.4	100.2	2-1	5-2
Houston	96.6	97.5	98.5	97.5	1-2	3-4
Navy	95.5	98.1	96.2	96.6	3-1	5-1
Tulsa	91.0	91.8	92.0	91.6	0-3	2-5
AAC Averages	96.7	97.4	97.3	97.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	132.6	130.0	133.4	132.0	5-0	7-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6	2-3	3-4
Syracuse	104.5	103.8	104.1	104.1	0-3	3-4
Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4	2-1	6-1
Boston College	102.2	102.1	102.7	102.3	2-2	4-3
North Carolina St.	99.3	99.0	99.4	99.2	1-2	4-3
Louisville	97.7	97.3	97.4	97.4	2-2	4-3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	108.8	109.0	108.9	108.9	3-1	5-2
Pittsburgh	106.6	106.4	106.9	106.6	2-1	5-2
North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1	2-2	3-4
Duke	105.6	104.9	105.3	105.3	2-2	4-3
Miami (Fla.)	104.8	104.1	105.5	104.8	1-3	3-4
Virginia Tech	101.0	101.1	101.4	101.2	3-2	5-2
Georgia Tech	94.6	92.9	95.0	94.2	1-3	2-5
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	125.8	125.1	125.7	125.5	4-0	7-0
Iowa St.	115.9	116.6	116.2	116.2	3-1	5-2
Baylor	114.0	114.2	113.6	113.9	4-0	7-0
Texas	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8	3-1	5-2
Oklahoma St.	108.6	109.0	108.0	108.5	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	108.3	108.1	107.9	108.1	1-2	4-2
T C U	105.2	108.0	105.5	106.2	1-2	3-3
Texas Tech	105.8	106.0	105.0	105.6	1-3	3-4
West Virginia	102.1	101.5	101.2	101.6	1-3	3-4
Kansas	95.2	96.2	95.2	95.5	0-4	2-5
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	137.4	136.4	138.4	137.4	4-0	7-0
Penn St.	122.7	121.8	122.8	122.5	4-0	7-0
Michigan	118.9	117.2	119.0	118.4	3-2	5-2
Michigan St.	114.3	113.5	114.0	113.9	2-2	4-3
Indiana	108.5	107.2	107.9	107.9	2-2	5-2
Maryland	104.5	103.7	103.3	103.8	1-3	3-4
Rutgers	84.1	83.6	82.9	83.5	0-5	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	121.7	121.4	121.7	121.6	3-1	6-1
Iowa	117.7	115.8	117.5	117.0	2-2	5-2
Minnesota	114.2	113.9	113.7	113.9	4-0	7-0
Purdue	106.8	106.6	106.3	106.6	1-3	2-5
Northwestern	105.4	104.5	104.3	104.7	0-4	1-5
Nebraska	103.4	104.2	102.8	103.5	2-2	4-3
Illinois	98.3	99.1	97.5	98.3	1-3	3-4
Big Ten Averages	111.3	110.6	110.9	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.4	92.8	92.0	2-1	4-3
Western Kentucky	90.6	91.8	92.4	91.6	4-0	5-2
Florida Int’l.	91.4	91.4	91.6	91.5	2-2	4-3
Marshall	90.4	90.0	91.5	90.6	2-1	4-3
Middle Tennessee	89.1	88.1	89.2	88.8	1-2	2-5
Charlotte	83.6	83.9	83.6	83.7	0-3	2-5
Old Dominion	76.4	76.8	76.4	76.5	0-3	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.0	94.3	94.1	3-0	6-1
Southern Miss.	94.2	92.6	94.3	93.7	2-1	4-3
North Texas	91.2	90.5	91.7	91.1	2-1	3-4
U A B	89.9	91.8	90.8	90.9	3-1	6-1
Rice	79.9	81.3	79.2	80.2	0-3	0-7
Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.8	74.3	75.2	2-2	3-4
U T E P	68.4	73.1	69.2	70.2	0-3	1-5
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.5	118.8	120.4	119.9	x	5-1
BYU	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.3	x	3-4
Army	96.0	95.9	95.2	95.7	x	3-4
Liberty	89.0	90.3	89.3	89.5	x	5-2
New Mexico St.	78.2	80.6	78.5	79.1	x	0-7
Massachusetts	62.3	64.1	61.2	62.5	x	1-6
Indep. Averages	90.9	91.5	90.6	91.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7	2-1	3-4
Buffalo	89.3	89.8	90.4	89.8	1-2	3-4
Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4	2-1	3-4
Miami (Ohio)	88.5	87.0	88.7	88.1	2-1	3-4
Bowling Green	74.1	74.0	74.2	74.1	1-2	2-5
Akron	72.5	72.6	71.4	72.1	0-3	0-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.5	96.4	97.2	97.0	2-2	4-4
Northern Illinois	92.2	91.1	92.3	91.9	1-2	2-5
Ball St.	91.5	91.1	91.6	91.4	3-0	4-3
Toledo	88.3	88.6	89.0	88.6	1-2	4-3
Eastern Michigan	87.2	87.4	87.7	87.5	1-2	4-3
Central Michigan	85.9	86.7	86.9	86.5	3-1	5-3
MAC Averages	87.3	87.1	87.6	87.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.1	105.8	106.4	106.1	3-0	6-1
Utah St.	104.9	104.0	105.9	104.9	3-0	4-2
Air Force	101.9	103.4	102.8	102.7	3-1	5-2
Wyoming	97.3	99.4	97.6	98.1	2-1	5-2
Colorado St.	82.8	86.6	83.1	84.2	1-2	2-5
New Mexico	80.0	82.8	79.0	80.6	0-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.0	99.8	99.5	99.4	1-1	3-3
San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9	3-1	6-1
Hawaii	95.7	97.0	94.9	95.9	1-2	4-3
Nevada	87.5	88.9	86.9	87.8	1-2	4-3
San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0	1-3	3-4
U N L V	84.2	85.6	83.7	84.5	1-3	2-5
MWC Averages	93.6	95.1	93.6	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	119.1	119.2	120.5	119.6	4-0	6-1
Washington	114.0	113.7	115.0	114.2	2-3	5-3
Washington St.	112.0	111.1	112.3	111.8	1-3	4-3
California	104.3	104.0	105.0	104.4	1-3	4-3
Stanford	103.6	102.7	103.1	103.1	2-3	3-4
Oregon St.	97.3	98.3	96.8	97.5	2-2	3-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	121.6	120.4	122.2	121.4	3-1	6-1
U S C	109.9	110.7	110.6	110.4	3-1	4-3
Arizona St.	108.4	107.7	109.2	108.5	2-2	5-2
Arizona	99.0	99.0	98.9	99.0	2-2	4-3
U C L A	99.2	99.0	98.5	98.9	2-2	2-5
Colorado	95.9	95.5	95.4	95.6	1-3	3-4
Pac-12 Averages	107.0	106.8	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.2	124.3	126.1	125.5	3-1	6-1
Florida	122.7	119.8	122.3	121.6	5-1	7-1
Missouri	114.2	111.8	114.0	113.3	2-1	5-2
South Carolina	113.6	111.9	113.4	113.0	2-3	3-4
Tennessee	107.3	106.9	105.7	106.6	1-3	2-5
Kentucky	106.2	104.8	104.8	105.3	1-4	3-4
Vanderbilt	97.0	95.7	95.7	96.1	1-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	132.0	136.0	134.4	4-0	7-0
L S U	129.4	127.1	129.5	128.7	3-0	7-0
Auburn	123.4	121.7	123.2	122.8	3-1	6-1
Texas A&M	116.7	115.0	115.3	115.7	2-2	4-3
Mississippi St.	110.1	106.4	114.5	110.3	1-3	3-4
Ole Miss	105.2	104.2	104.9	104.8	2-3	3-5
Arkansas	95.2	95.7	94.5	95.2	0-4	2-5
SEC Averages	114.5	112.7	114.3	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	108.8	107.8	108.6	108.4	3-0	6-0
Troy	94.3	94.8	93.4	94.2	1-1	3-3
Georgia Southern	93.3	92.7	92.2	92.8	2-1	3-3
Georgia St.	89.6	91.0	89.3	90.0	2-1	5-2
Coastal Carolina	86.8	87.9	86.2	87.0	0-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.9	101.0	100.8	100.9	2-1	5-2
Arkansas St.	89.7	89.8	89.2	89.6	1-2	3-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.5	85.6	86.0	2-1	3-4
Texas St.	83.4	84.2	83.0	83.5	1-1	2-4
South Alabama	74.2	76.8	73.3	74.8	0-3	1-6
SBC Averages	90.7	91.3	90.2	90.7

 

 

Conference Ratings

 

#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.8
2	Big Ten	110.9
3	Big 12	109.3
4	Pac-12	107.0
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American	97.1
7	Mountain West	94.1
8	Independents	91.0
9	Sun Belt	90.7
10	Mid-American	87.3
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	SMU
2	Appalachian St.
3	Cincinnati
4	Navy
5	Boise St.

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).

AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up.  SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl.  Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.

ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so.  There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids.  Boston College, Louisville,  and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now.  The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.

Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries?  If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs.  If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs.  If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs.  Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now.  Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.

Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier.  The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound.  Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division.  Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect.  If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962.  With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.

Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture.  Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag.  The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand.  UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.

Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here.  The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention.  If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid.  Keep an eye on Liberty.  If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season.  Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins.  Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.

MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest.  Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division.  The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions.  The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition.  Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion.  In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown.  Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.

Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl.  The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them.  Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team.  With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title.  This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in.  Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.

Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely.  The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm.  Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs.  The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.

SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden.  If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn.  Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title.  With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids.  USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility.  Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6.  In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss.  Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8.  The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.

Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion?  Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Central Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Toledo]
Cure	AAC	SBC	East Carolina	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Ball St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Indiana
Military	ACC	AAC	Duke	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Pittsburgh	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Penn St.
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	[Hawaii]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Michigan
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Wyoming]	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	[Liberty]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Georgia	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Troy]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Nebraska
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Western Ky.]	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 14, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Wednesday	October 16
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Troy	South Alabama	22.4	19.7	21.9
Thursday	October 17
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas St.	Louisiana	-6.5	-6.3	-6.5
Stanford	UCLA	12.6	12.2	13.5
Friday	October 18
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida Atlantic	Marshall	6.7	6.8	6.9
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	2.8	2.4	2.5
Northwestern	Ohio St.	-24.8	-24.4	-26.8
Fresno St.	UNLV	15.2	14.2	15.8
Saturday	October 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia	Duke	2.0	2.7	2.0
Miami (Fla.)	Georgia Tech	15.9	16.8	16.4
Louisville	Clemson	-31.4	-28.6	-32.2
Georgia St.	Army	-6.7	-5.2	-6.6
Akron	Buffalo	-13.5	-13.7	-15.5
Maryland	Indiana	-0.6	0.3	-0.8
Connecticut	Houston	-24.5	-21.6	-28.3
Wake Forest	Florida St.	1.5	0.8	1.7
Georgia Southern	Coastal Carolina	10.7	8.9	10.5
Bowling Green	Central Michigan	-7.3	-8.2	-8.0
Central Florida	East Carolina	31.5	28.7	32.5
Cincinnati	Tulsa	21.7	19.8	21.7
Boston College	North Carolina St.	2.1	2.2	2.2
Iowa	Purdue	14.5	12.8	15.1
Ohio	Kent St.	7.2	6.2	7.1
Eastern Michigan	Western Michigan	-10.3	-9.1	-10.0
Texas	Kansas	22.5	21.6	23.0
Illinois	Wisconsin	-25.1	-23.9	-26.2
Utah St.	Nevada	19.8	16.8	21.4
BYU	Boise St.	-6.1	-6.0	-7.0
Wyoming	New Mexico	21.2	20.4	22.7
Utah	Arizona St.	16.0	15.3	15.6
Ball St.	Toledo	0.2	-0.5	-0.3
Miami (O)	Northern Illinois	-1.8	-2.6	-2.1
California	Oregon St.	13.6	12.2	15.3
Washington	Oregon	-1.4	-2.0	-1.7
USC	Arizona	10.3	10.9	10.7
Washington St.	Colorado	16.1	15.4	16.5
South Carolina	Florida	-5.4	-4.1	-4.9
Georgia	Kentucky	23.6	23.4	25.6
Kansas St.	TCU	5.8	2.5	5.2
Mississippi St.	LSU	-14.3	-15.7	-9.1
Alabama	Tennessee	32.0	29.1	34.3
Louisiana Tech	Southern Miss.	-0.9	0.6	-1.1
UAB	Old Dominion	12.9	14.3	13.5
Oklahoma	West Virginia	24.3	23.9	24.6
Oklahoma St.	Baylor	0.9	1.3	1.1
Arkansas	Auburn	-20.7	-18.1	-20.7
Ole Miss	Texas A&M	-8.8	-7.7	-7.4
Memphis	Tulane	5.3	4.2	5.0
Virginia Tech	North Carolina	-2.3	-2.2	-3.1
Rutgers	Minnesota	-25.0	-25.1	-25.3
Texas Tech	Iowa St.	-6.7	-7.0	-7.7
Navy	South Florida	5.2	6.8	5.3
Appalachian St.	Louisiana-Monroe	20.2	18.1	19.8
Vanderbilt	Missouri	-18.8	-17.6	-20.5
San Jose St.	San Diego St.	-10.4	-10.1	-10.8
Western Kentucky	Charlotte	8.0	8.5	9.5
North Texas	Middle Tennessee	4.8	5.3	5.7
UTSA	Rice	-3.9	-2.9	-3.5
SMU	Temple	5.6	6.3	5.6
Florida Int’l.	UTEP	27.8	22.9	27.5
Penn St.	Michigan	6.4	7.2	6.5
Hawaii	Air Force	4.0	4.0	2.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Note:  We receive a lot of emails at our sister site asking us how X can be rated ahead of Y when Y beat X in September.  These are not rankings; they are ratings.  They are predictive in nature and not mean to rank the teams based on what they have done earlier in the season.  These ratings try to forecast the next week of games only.  

 

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	135.3	134.2	136.2	135.2
2	Alabama	135.8	132.5	136.5	134.9
3	Clemson	132.2	129.3	132.9	131.5
4	L S U	128.4	126.1	128.0	127.5
5	Georgia	126.7	124.9	126.9	126.2
6	Wisconsin	124.2	123.9	124.4	124.2
7	Oklahoma	124.4	123.6	124.1	124.0
8	Penn St.	122.5	121.6	122.6	122.3
9	Utah	121.5	120.2	122.0	121.2
10	Florida	122.4	119.4	121.8	121.2
11	Auburn	121.5	119.6	121.1	120.7
12	Notre Dame	120.2	118.5	120.1	119.6
13	Oregon	118.7	118.8	120.0	119.2
14	Michigan	119.1	117.4	119.2	118.6
15	Iowa	118.0	116.1	118.0	117.3
16	Iowa St.	115.7	116.3	115.9	116.0
17	Texas A&M	116.8	115.0	115.3	115.7
18	Missouri	116.4	114.0	116.5	115.6
19	Washington	114.2	113.9	115.3	114.5
20	Michigan St.	114.0	113.2	113.7	113.6
21	Texas	113.3	113.5	113.7	113.5
22	South Carolina	113.9	112.3	113.9	113.4
23	Minnesota	112.4	112.0	111.7	112.0
24	Baylor	112.1	112.2	111.5	111.9
25	Central Florida	111.5	110.6	112.4	111.5
26	Mississipppi St.	111.1	107.4	116.0	111.5
27	Washington St.	110.5	109.5	110.6	110.2
28	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.6	110.0
29	Cincinnati	109.0	107.8	109.8	108.9
30	Arizona St.	108.5	107.9	109.4	108.6
31	U S C	108.1	108.8	108.6	108.5
32	Kansas St.	108.2	107.8	107.8	107.9
33	Boise St.	107.5	107.3	108.1	107.6
34	Indiana	108.3	106.8	107.5	107.5
35	Duke	107.7	107.1	107.6	107.5
36	Northwestern	107.5	106.7	106.5	106.9
37	Virginia	106.7	106.8	106.6	106.7
38	Miami (Fla.)	106.4	105.7	107.2	106.4
39	California	106.2	105.9	107.2	106.4
40	T C U	105.3	108.3	105.6	106.4
41	North Carolina	106.0	106.0	107.2	106.4
42	Purdue	106.5	106.3	105.8	106.2
43	Tennessee	106.8	106.4	105.2	106.1
44	Stanford	106.4	105.6	106.2	106.1
45	Texas Tech	106.0	106.3	105.3	105.9
46	Pittsburgh	105.8	105.5	105.9	105.7
47	SMU	105.1	104.9	106.2	105.4
48	Appalachian St.	105.9	104.7	105.5	105.4
49	Syracuse	105.6	105.0	105.4	105.3
50	Kentucky	106.0	104.5	104.3	104.9
51	Ole Miss	105.1	104.2	104.9	104.7
52	Memphis	104.6	104.4	105.1	104.7
53	Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6
54	Utah St.	104.6	103.4	105.6	104.5
55	Maryland	104.7	104.1	103.7	104.2
56	Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4
57	Nebraska	103.1	103.9	102.5	103.2
58	Tulane	102.3	103.2	103.1	102.9
59	West Virginia	103.2	102.7	102.5	102.8
60	Temple	102.4	101.7	103.6	102.6
61	North Carolina St.	101.3	101.1	101.6	101.3
62	Arizona	100.8	100.9	100.9	100.9
63	Virginia Tech	100.7	100.8	101.1	100.9
64	Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.8	100.5
65	Louisiana	99.8	99.8	99.5	99.7
66	Air Force	98.9	100.3	99.7	99.6
67	Houston	98.0	98.8	100.3	99.0
68	San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9
69	Hawaii	98.4	99.8	97.7	98.6
70	Wyoming	97.7	99.8	98.2	98.6
71	Western Michigan	98.8	97.7	98.7	98.4
72	BYU	98.4	98.3	98.1	98.3
73	Fresno St.	97.7	98.3	98.0	98.0
74	Arkansas	97.8	98.5	97.3	97.9
75	Louisville	97.9	97.8	97.7	97.8
76	Army	97.4	97.3	96.8	97.2
77	Colorado	97.4	97.1	97.1	97.2
78	U C L A	96.7	96.4	95.7	96.3
79	Illinois	96.1	96.9	95.1	96.1
80	Oregon St.	95.7	96.7	94.9	95.8
81	Southern Miss.	95.8	94.2	96.1	95.4
82	Kansas	93.9	94.9	93.7	94.2
83	Vanderbilt	95.1	93.8	93.5	94.1
84	Navy	93.0	95.6	93.5	94.1
85	Troy	94.2	94.4	93.1	93.9
86	Georgia Southern	94.1	93.5	93.2	93.6
87	Florida Atlantic	93.0	92.6	94.1	93.2
88	Georgia Tech	93.5	91.8	93.8	93.0
89	Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7
90	Florida Int’l.	92.5	92.4	92.9	92.6
91	Louisiana Tech	92.4	92.4	92.5	92.4
92	Northern Illinois	92.5	91.6	92.8	92.3
93	Toledo	91.3	91.6	92.0	91.6
94	North Texas	91.3	90.7	92.0	91.3
95	South Florida	90.8	91.8	91.2	91.3
96	Tulsa	90.3	91.1	91.1	90.8
97	Arkansas St.	90.8	91.0	90.5	90.8
98	Western Kentucky	89.8	90.9	91.5	90.7
99	Marshall	89.3	88.8	90.2	89.4
100	Buffalo	88.9	89.3	89.9	89.3
101	Liberty	88.8	90.1	89.1	89.3
102	U A B	88.3	90.2	89.1	89.2
103	Ball St.	89.0	88.6	89.1	88.9
104	Middle Tennessee	89.0	87.9	88.9	88.6
105	Louisiana-Monroe	88.2	89.1	88.2	88.5
106	Georgia St.	88.2	89.6	87.7	88.5
107	Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4
108	Nevada	87.8	89.5	87.2	88.2