PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Texas Southern	Fairleigh Dickinson	1.4
Clemson	Morehead St.	17.0
Florida	Central Florida	4.5
Youngstown St.	Oklahoma St.	-6.2
North Texas	Alcorn St.	16.3
Cincinnati	Virginia Tech	4.8
Santa Clara	Sam Houston St..	1.8
Arizona St.	Nevada	-0.1
New Mexico	Utah Valley	5.3
Oregon	UC Irvine	8.8

PiRate Ratings Bracketology — Final Before Selection Show

Date	Final
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	Texas	Arizona	UCLA	Marquette
3	Baylor	Kansas St.	Gonzaga	Connecticut
4	Tennessee	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	Iowa St.	San Diego St.	TCU	Duke
6	Miami (Fla)	Saint Mary’s	Texas A&M	Creighton
7	Kentucky	Missouri	Michigan St.	Northwestern
8	Maryland	Florida Atlantic	Arkansas	Memphis
9	Illinois	Iowa	West Virginia	Boise St.
10	Auburn	Penn St.	USC	Utah St.
11	Providence	N. Carolina St.	Mississippi St.	Rutgers	Pittsburgh	Arizona St.
12	Charleston	Oral Roberts	Drake	VCU
13	Kent St.	Iona	Louisiana	Furman
14	UC Santa Barbara	Kennesaw St.	Grand Canyon	Colgate
15	Princeton	Vermont	Montana St.	UNC Asheville
16	N. Kentucky	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson	Texas Southern

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Last 4 Byes: USC, Utah St., Providence, North Carolina St.

Last 4 In (DAYTON FIRST FOUR): Rutgers vs. Arizona St. & Mississippi St. vs. Pittsburgh

#16 First Four: SE Missouri St. vs. Texas Southern & Howard vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

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First Four Out (#1 NIT Seeds): Nevada, Oklahoma St., Clemson, Vanderbilt

Next 4 Out (#2 NIT Seeds): North Carolina, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special

With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.

Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.

Team	NET	COM	SOS	NSOS	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Away	Today
Arizona St.	66	66	62	123	5-6	4-5	5-0	8-1	12-7
Clemson	57	63	123	312	4-4	3-2	7-2	9-2	8-9
Mississippi St.	49	50	43	204	4-8	4-3	5-1	8-0	9-8
Nevada	37	42	24	70	4-5	4-3	10-2	3-0	8-9
North Carolina	46	44	12	18	2-9	5-4	7-0	6-0	8-10
North Texas	38	46	83	112	1-3	3-2	11-1	9-1	14-5
Oklahoma St.	43	38	11	158	6-12	4-2	3-1	5-0	7-10
Oregon	47	40	28	7	2-9	7-4	5-1	5-0	6-9
Pittsburgh	67	77	86	122	4-4	3-5	5-1	10-1	8-8
Rutgers	40	35	48	219	5-7	5-3	2-4	7-0	5-9
UAB	52	54	119	293	2-3	1-3	9-1	12-1	10-6	FAU
Utah St.	18	18	20	29	2-4	9-1	13-0	1-2	12-5	SDSU
Vanderbilt	79	79	6	12	5-9	5-1	5-2	5-1	8-8	TXAM
Wisconsin	82	75	36	118	6-8	5-5	1-1	5-0	8-8

These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.

Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.

In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.

Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.

If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/10/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	UCLA	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Kansas St.	Gonzaga	Marquette	Tennessee
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Virginia	Indiana
5	Iowa St.	Miami (Fla)	San Diego St.	TCU
6	Saint Mary’s	Creighton	Kentucky	Duke
7	Texas A&M	Michigan St.	Northwestern	Missouri
8	Maryland	Illinois	Arkansas	Iowa
9	Florida Atlantic	Memphis	Auburn	Boise St.
10	West Virginia	Providence	North Carolina St.	USC
11	Utah St.	Rutgers	Pittsburgh	Mississippi St.	Penn St.	Arizona St.
12	Oral Roberts	Drake	Charleston	VCU
13	Toledo	Utah Valley	Iona	Yale
14	Louisiana	Furman	UC Santa Barbara	Colgate
15	Kennesaw St.	Vermont	UNC Asheville	Montana St.
16	N. Kentucky	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Grambling	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

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Starting Today, First Four Out and Next Four Out give way to the teams that can still work their way into the Field of 68 if they keep winning. There are six teams on the Bubble but not currently in the Bracket Prediction above. Additionally, there is a definite potential bid-stealer.

Teams (In Order) that can still play their way into the Field:

Oklahoma St.

Clemson

Oregon

North Texas

Vanderbilt

UAB

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Potential Bid-Stealer: Ohio St.

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Potential At-large addition if they lose in their tournament: Florida Atlantic

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/6/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	UCLA	Texas	Baylor	Arizona
3	Marquette	Kansas St.	Tennessee	Gonzaga
4	Connecticut	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	San Diego St.	Saint Mary’s	Miami (Fla)	TCU
6	Iowa St.	Duke	Creighton	Texas A&M
7	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Northwestern	Maryland
8	Illinois	Iowa	Missouri	Arkansas
9	Florida Atlantic	Boise St.	Auburn	Providence
10	Memphis	West Virginia	North Carolina St.	USC
11	Pittsburgh	Rutgers	Mississippi St.	Nevada	Wisconsin	Penn St.
12	Oral Roberts	VCU	Drake	Hofstra
13	Utah Valley	Toledo	Iona	Louisiana
14	Yale	Furman	UC Santa Barbara	Kennesaw St.
15	Colgate	Vermont	Montana St.	Youngstown St.
16	UNC Asheville	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Grambling	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson

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Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St., USC, Pittsburgh, Rutgers

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Arizona St., Oklahoma St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/10/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Purdue	Alabama	Houston	Kansas
2	Arizona	Tennessee	Texas	UCLA
3	Baylor	Xavier	Kansas St.	Iowa St.
4	Marquette	Connecticut	Virginia	Gonzaga
5	TCU	Indiana	Saint Mary’s	Miami (Fla.)
6	San Diego St.	Rutgers	Illinois	Creighton
7	Duke	Providence	Auburn	Iowa
8	West Virginia	Florida Atlanta	Maryland	Arkansas
9	Missouri	Michigan St.	North Carolina St.	Boise St.
10	Nevada	New Mexico	Oklahoma St.	Northwestern
11	Pittsburgh	North Carolina	Memphis	USC	Kentucky	Clemson
12	Charleston	Oral Roberts	Liberty	Southern Miss.
13	VCU	Akron	Drake	Utah Valley
14	UC Santa Barbara	Princeton	Furman	Colgate
15	Rider	E. Washington	Vermont	Youngstown St.
16	UNC Asheville	Texas A&M-CC	MD Eastern Shore	Morehead St.	Alcorn St.	Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Oklahoma St., Northwestern, Pittsburgh, North Carolina

Last 4 In: Memphis, USC, Kentucky, Clemson

First 4 Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Oregon, Utah St.

Next 4 Out: Mississippi St., Florida, Seton Hall, Arizona St.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	2/6/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Houston	Alabama	Purdue	Texas
2	Tennessee	Kansas	Arizona	UCLA
3	Baylor	Xavier	Iowa St.	Marquette
4	Kansas St.	Connecticut	Virginia	Saint Mary’s
5	Gonzaga	TCU	Indiana	Rutgers
6	San Diego St.	Miami (Fla)	Illinois	Duke
7	Creighton	Providence	Auburn	Iowa
8	Florida Atlantic	Maryland	New Mexico	West Virginia
9	Missouri	North Carolina St.	Arkansas	USC
10	Boise St.	Michigan St.	Nevada	Kentucky
11	Oklahoma St.	North Carolina	Northwestern	Memphis	Pittsburgh	Clemson
12	Oral Roberts	Liberty	Southern Miss.	VCU
13	Hofstra	Utah Valley	Drake	Akron
14	UC Santa Barbara	Princeton	Furman	Colgate
15	Rider	E. Washington	Youngstown St.	Vermont
16	Radford	Northwestern St.	Morehead St.	MD Eastern Shore	Southern	Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes

Nevada, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, North Carolina

Last 4 In

Northwestern, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Clemson

First 4 Out

Utah St., Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Wisconsin

Next 4 Out

Mississippi St., Florida, Virginia Tech, Oregon

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Air Force	Boise St.	-9.0
Alabama	Vanderbilt	16.1
Arkansas	Texas A&M	5.7
Boston College	Clemson	-11.4
Bowling Green	Ball St.	-2.2
Buffalo	Akron	-0.5
Colorado St.	UNLV	0.2
Davidson	VCU	-2.1
Dayton	Loyola (Chi)	15.5
DePaul	Connecticut	-12.2
Duke	Wake Forest	8.6
Eastern Michigan	Ohio	2.1
Fordham	Saint Louis	-3.5
Illinois	Nebraska	12.0
Iowa	Northwestern	5.1
Kansas	Kansas St.	6.2
Kent St.	Central Michigan	18.7
Maryland	Indiana	0.4
Miami (Fla)	Virginia Tech	3.8
Miami (O)	Toledo	-9.9
Mississippi	Kentucky	-3.8
Nevada	San Diego St.	-1.1
Quinnipiac	Marist	13.1
South Carolina	Mississippi St.	-10.4
TCU	West Virginia	4.9
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	2.6
Wyoming	Fresno St.	3.1

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	1/30/2023
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Purdue	Alabama	Tennessee	Houston
2	Kansas	Arizona	UCLA	Arizona
3	Baylor	Kansas St.	Virginia	Iowa St.
4	Marquette	Xavier	TCU	Gonzaga
5	Connecticut	Saint Mary’s	Rutgers	Indiana
6	San Diego St.	Illinois	Providence	Miami (Fla)
7	Auburn	New Mexico	Duke	North Carolina
8	Florida Atlantic	Creighton	Missouri	North Carolina St.
9	Boise St.	Northwestern	Iowa	Michigan St.
10	Memphis	West Virginia	Arkansas	Maryland
11	USC	Clemson	Charleston	Nevada	Penn St.
12	Kent St.	Oral Roberts	Liberty	Kentucky	Pittsburgh
13	Louisiana	Saint Louis	Drake	UCSB
14	Utah Valley	Cornell	Furman	Colgate
15	Siena	Eastern Washington	Youngstown St.	UNC Asheville
16	SE Louisiana	Vermont	UT-Martin	MD Eastern Shore	Southern	Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Arkansas, Maryland, USC, and Clemson

Last 4 In: Nevada, Penn State, Kentucky, and Pittsburgh

First 4 Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Arizona State, and Utah State

Next 4 Out: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 21, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Abilene Christian	UT Arlington	4.9
Air Force	San Diego St	-8.0
Alabama A&M	Texas Southern	-1.1
Alabama St.	Prairie View A&M	-1.7
Alcorn St.	Florida A&M	13.3
Arizona	UCLA	-1.2
Arizona St.	USC	3.7
Arkansas Pine Bluff	Southern U.	-5.5
Arkansas St.	Marshall	-13.3
Army	Navy	2.3
Austin Peay	Eastern Kentucky	-2.1
Boston U.	Loyola (MD)	7.4
Bowling Green	Miami (O)	3.9
Bradley	Belmont	6.3
Brown	Columbia	12.9
Bucknell	Holy Cross	7.9
Cal Baptist	Tarleton St.	3.5
Cal St. Northridge	Cal St. Fullerton	-6.2
Charleston Southern	Campbell	1.2
Chattanooga	East Tennessee St.	10.0
Clemson	Virginia Tech	2.3
Coastal Carolina	South Alabama	-0.9
Colgate	American	9.3
Coppin St.	Norfolk St.	-4.4
Drexel	Delaware	4.1
Duke	Miami (Fla)	4.7
Duquesne	Fordham	6.9
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	0.2
Elon	Towson	-10.9
Evansville	Drake	-13.8
Florida Gulf Coast	Kennesaw St.	3.1
Fresno St.	UNLV	-3.5
George Washington	Dayton	-7.7
Georgia	Vanderbilt	2.6
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.	2.2
Grand Canyon	Utah Valley	1.7
Green Bay	Robert Morris	-8.3
Harvard	Cornell	-2.0
Houston Christian	Texas A&M-CC	-9.2
Howard	Morgan St.	0.0
Idaho St.	Portland St.	0.4
Illinois Chicago	Northern Iowa	-4.8
Illinois St.	Valparaiso	5.9
IUPUI	Detroit	-13.4
Jackson St.	Bethune-Cookman	7.6
Jacksonville	Queens	3.6
Kansas	TCU	7.3
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	4.8
Kentucky	Texas A&M	4.9
Lamar	Incarnate Word	-0.2
Lehigh	Lafayette	0.7
Lindenwood	Morehead St.	-2.4
Lipscomb	Bellarmine	5.2
Little Rock	Tennessee St.	-0.8
Louisiana Tech	Middle Tennessee	2.7
Loyola (Chi)	St. Bonaventure	-2.3
LSU	Tennessee	-12.8
McNeese St.	Nicholls St.	-3.8
Milwaukee	Youngstown St.	-3.6
Mississippi St.	Florida	0.8
Mississippi Valley St.	Grambling	-10.2
Missouri	Alabama	-7.3
Missouri St.	Southern Illinois	1.6
Monmouth	Hampton	0.7
Montana	Montana St.	-0.6
Murray St.	Indiana St.	-1.2
New Orleans	Northwestern St.	-5.4
North Alabama	Central Arkansas	5.4
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	4.7
North Carolina Central	Delaware St.	16.2
North Dakota	Oral Roberts	-13.2
North Dakota St.	UMKC	3.2
North Florida	Liberty	-10.4
Northeastern	Charleston	-8.8
Northern Arizona	Eastern Washington	-5.2
Northern Colorado	Idaho	4.4
Northern Kentucky	Purdue Ft. Wayne	-0.2
Northwestern	Wisconsin	4.0
Notre Dame	Boston College	5.9
Ohio	Central Michigan	10.4
Ohio St.	Iowa	3.0
Oklahoma	Baylor	-1.2
Oklahoma St.	Iowa St.	-0.1
Old Dominion	Appalachian St.	5.8
Pacific	Gonzaga	-16.6
Penn St.	Nebraska	8.0
Pittsburgh	Florida St.	9.8
Portland	Pepperdine	3.5
Presbyterian	Longwood	-8.6
Princeton	Dartmouth	13.0
Providence	DePaul	11.4
Radford	High Point	9.1
Rhode Island	George Mason	-2.6
Saint Joseph’s	Massachusetts	0.9
Saint Louis	La Salle	14.3
Saint Mary’s	Santa Clara	11.6
Sam Houston St.	UT-Rio Grande Valley	17.2
Samford	Western Carolina	8.1
San Francisco	BYU	0.1
Seattle	Southern Utah	1.3
Seton Hall	Marquette	-1.3
SIU Edwardsville	Southern Indiana	5.7
South Carolina	Auburn	-14.9
South Carolina St.	Maryland Eastern Shore	-2.4
South Dakota	Omaha	3.2
South Dakota St.	Denver	9.3
South Florida	Central Florida	-5.5
Southeast Missouri	Tennessee Tech	4.5
Southeastern Louisiana	Texas A&M-Commerce	3.5
Southern Miss.	James Madison	-1.3
Stanford	Oregon	-1.7
Stetson	Jacksonville St.	8.3
Stony Brook	UNC Wilmington	-6.7
Texas St.	Louisiana	-2.3
Troy	Louisiana Monroe	10.3
Tulsa	Tulane	-8.1
UAB	North Texas	5.1
UC Davis	Cal Poly	9.1
UC Riverside	Hawaii	1.2
UC San Diego	Long Beach St.	-3.9
UC Santa Barbara	Cal St. Bakersfield	14.4
UMBC	New Hampshire	6.6
UNC Asheville	USC Upstate	8.7
UNC Greensboro	Mercer	8.5
UT Martin	Eastern Illinois	9.3
Utah	Washington	7.4
Utah St.	San Jose St.	13.2
Utah Tech	New Mexico St.	0.4
UTEP	Florida Atlantic	-7.9
UTSA	Florida Intl.	-1.4
VMI	The Citadel	0.7
Wake Forest	Virginia	-2.9
Weber St.	Sacramento St.	2.6
West Virginia	Texas	0.1
Western Illinois	St. Thomas	-0.6
Western Kentucky	Charlotte	-0.4
Western Michigan	Akron	-7.5
William & Mary	North Carolina A&T	1.2
Winthrop	Gardner Webb	-2.2
Wright St.	Cleveland St.	1.3
Wyoming	Colorado St.	0.1
Xavier	Georgetown	19.5
Yale	Penn	7.3