The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 15, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 15, 2023

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Texas SouthernFairleigh Dickinson1.4
ClemsonMorehead St.17.0
FloridaCentral Florida4.5
Youngstown St.Oklahoma St.-6.2
North TexasAlcorn St.16.3
CincinnatiVirginia Tech4.8
Santa ClaraSam Houston St..1.8
Arizona St.Nevada-0.1
New MexicoUtah Valley5.3
OregonUC Irvine8.8

March 12, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology — Final Before Selection Show

DateFinal
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2TexasArizonaUCLAMarquette
3BaylorKansas St.GonzagaConnecticut
4TennesseeXavierIndianaVirginia
5Iowa St.San Diego St.TCUDuke
6Miami (Fla)Saint Mary’sTexas A&MCreighton
7KentuckyMissouriMichigan St.Northwestern
8MarylandFlorida AtlanticArkansasMemphis
9IllinoisIowaWest VirginiaBoise St.
10AuburnPenn St.USCUtah St.
11ProvidenceN. Carolina St.Mississippi St.RutgersPittsburghArizona St.
12CharlestonOral RobertsDrakeVCU
13Kent St.IonaLouisianaFurman
14UC Santa BarbaraKennesaw St.Grand CanyonColgate
15PrincetonVermontMontana St.UNC Asheville
16N. KentuckyTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.HowardFairleigh DickinsonTexas Southern

Last 4 Byes: USC, Utah St., Providence, North Carolina St.

Last 4 In (DAYTON FIRST FOUR): Rutgers vs. Arizona St. & Mississippi St. vs. Pittsburgh

#16 First Four: SE Missouri St. vs. Texas Southern & Howard vs. Fairleigh Dickinson


First Four Out (#1 NIT Seeds): Nevada, Oklahoma St., Clemson, Vanderbilt

Next 4 Out (#2 NIT Seeds): North Carolina, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan

March 11, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special

With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.

Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.

TeamNETCOMSOSNSOSQ1Q2Q3Q4AwayToday
Arizona St.6666621235-64-55-08-112-7
Clemson57631233124-43-27-29-28-9
Mississippi St.4950432044-84-35-18-09-8
Nevada374224704-54-310-23-08-9
North Carolina464412182-95-47-06-08-10
North Texas3846831121-33-211-19-114-5
Oklahoma St.4338111586-124-23-15-07-10
Oregon47402872-97-45-15-06-9
Pittsburgh6777861224-43-55-110-18-8
Rutgers4035482195-75-32-47-05-9
UAB52541192932-31-39-112-110-6FAU
Utah St.181820292-49-113-01-212-5SDSU
Vanderbilt79796125-95-15-25-18-8TXAM
Wisconsin8275361186-85-51-15-08-8

These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.

Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.

In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.

Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.

If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.

March 10, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/10/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3Kansas St.GonzagaMarquetteTennessee
4ConnecticutXavierVirginiaIndiana
5Iowa St.Miami (Fla)San Diego St.TCU
6Saint Mary’sCreightonKentuckyDuke
7Texas A&MMichigan St.NorthwesternMissouri
8MarylandIllinoisArkansasIowa
9Florida AtlanticMemphisAuburnBoise St.
10West VirginiaProvidenceNorth Carolina St.USC
11Utah St.RutgersPittsburghMississippi St.Penn St.Arizona St.
12Oral RobertsDrakeCharlestonVCU
13ToledoUtah ValleyIonaYale
14LouisianaFurmanUC Santa BarbaraColgate
15Kennesaw St.VermontUNC AshevilleMontana St.
16N. KentuckyTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.GramblingHowardFairleigh Dickinson

Starting Today, First Four Out and Next Four Out give way to the teams that can still work their way into the Field of 68 if they keep winning. There are six teams on the Bubble but not currently in the Bracket Prediction above. Additionally, there is a definite potential bid-stealer.

Teams (In Order) that can still play their way into the Field:

Oklahoma St.
Clemson
Oregon
North Texas
Vanderbilt
UAB

Potential Bid-Stealer: Ohio St.


Potential At-large addition if they lose in their tournament: Florida Atlantic

March 6, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:19 am
Date3/6/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1AlabamaHoustonKansasPurdue
2UCLATexasBaylorArizona
3MarquetteKansas St.TennesseeGonzaga
4ConnecticutXavierIndianaVirginia
5San Diego St.Saint Mary’sMiami (Fla)TCU
6Iowa St.DukeCreightonTexas A&M
7KentuckyMichigan St.NorthwesternMaryland
8IllinoisIowaMissouriArkansas
9Florida AtlanticBoise St.AuburnProvidence
10MemphisWest VirginiaNorth Carolina St.USC
11PittsburghRutgersMississippi St.NevadaWisconsinPenn St.
12Oral RobertsVCUDrakeHofstra
13Utah ValleyToledoIonaLouisiana
14YaleFurmanUC Santa BarbaraKennesaw St.
15ColgateVermontMontana St.Youngstown St.
16UNC AshevilleTexas A&M-CCSE Missouri St.GramblingHowardFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St., USC, Pittsburgh, Rutgers

Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Arizona St., Oklahoma St., North Carolina

Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt

February 10, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/10/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueAlabamaHoustonKansas
2ArizonaTennesseeTexasUCLA
3BaylorXavierKansas St.Iowa St.
4MarquetteConnecticutVirginiaGonzaga
5TCUIndianaSaint Mary’sMiami (Fla.)
6San Diego St.RutgersIllinoisCreighton
7DukeProvidenceAuburnIowa
8West VirginiaFlorida AtlantaMarylandArkansas
9MissouriMichigan St.North Carolina St.Boise St.
10NevadaNew MexicoOklahoma St.Northwestern
11PittsburghNorth CarolinaMemphisUSCKentuckyClemson
12CharlestonOral RobertsLibertySouthern Miss.
13VCUAkronDrakeUtah Valley
14UC Santa BarbaraPrincetonFurmanColgate
15RiderE. WashingtonVermontYoungstown St.
16UNC AshevilleTexas A&M-CCMD Eastern ShoreMorehead St.Alcorn St.Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Oklahoma St., Northwestern, Pittsburgh, North Carolina

Last 4 In: Memphis, USC, Kentucky, Clemson

First 4 Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Oregon, Utah St.

Next 4 Out: Mississippi St., Florida, Seton Hall, Arizona St.

February 6, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/6/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1HoustonAlabamaPurdueTexas
2TennesseeKansasArizonaUCLA
3BaylorXavierIowa St.Marquette
4Kansas St.ConnecticutVirginiaSaint Mary’s
5GonzagaTCUIndianaRutgers
6San Diego St.Miami (Fla)IllinoisDuke
7CreightonProvidenceAuburnIowa
8Florida AtlanticMarylandNew MexicoWest Virginia
9MissouriNorth Carolina St.ArkansasUSC
10Boise St.Michigan St.NevadaKentucky
11Oklahoma St.North CarolinaNorthwesternMemphisPittsburghClemson
12Oral RobertsLibertySouthern Miss.VCU
13HofstraUtah ValleyDrakeAkron
14UC Santa BarbaraPrincetonFurmanColgate
15RiderE. WashingtonYoungstown St.Vermont
16RadfordNorthwestern St.Morehead St.MD Eastern ShoreSouthernFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes

Nevada, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, North Carolina

Last 4 In

Northwestern, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Clemson

First 4 Out

Utah St., Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Wisconsin

Next 4 Out

Mississippi St., Florida, Virginia Tech, Oregon

January 31, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
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Air ForceBoise St.-9.0
AlabamaVanderbilt16.1
ArkansasTexas A&M5.7
Boston CollegeClemson-11.4
Bowling GreenBall St.-2.2
BuffaloAkron-0.5
Colorado St.UNLV0.2
DavidsonVCU-2.1
DaytonLoyola (Chi)15.5
DePaulConnecticut-12.2
DukeWake Forest8.6
Eastern MichiganOhio2.1
FordhamSaint Louis-3.5
IllinoisNebraska12.0
IowaNorthwestern5.1
KansasKansas St.6.2
Kent St.Central Michigan18.7
MarylandIndiana0.4
Miami (Fla)Virginia Tech3.8
Miami (O)Toledo-9.9
MississippiKentucky-3.8
NevadaSan Diego St.-1.1
QuinnipiacMarist13.1
South CarolinaMississippi St.-10.4
TCUWest Virginia4.9
Western MichiganNorthern Illinois2.6
WyomingFresno St.3.1

January 30, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:29 pm
Date1/30/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueAlabamaTennesseeHouston
2KansasArizonaUCLAArizona
3BaylorKansas St.VirginiaIowa St.
4MarquetteXavierTCUGonzaga
5ConnecticutSaint Mary’sRutgersIndiana
6San Diego St.IllinoisProvidenceMiami (Fla)
7AuburnNew MexicoDukeNorth Carolina
8Florida AtlanticCreightonMissouriNorth Carolina St.
9Boise St.NorthwesternIowaMichigan St.
10MemphisWest VirginiaArkansasMaryland
11USCClemsonCharlestonNevadaPenn St.
12Kent St.Oral RobertsLibertyKentuckyPittsburgh
13LouisianaSaint LouisDrakeUCSB
14Utah ValleyCornellFurmanColgate
15SienaEastern WashingtonYoungstown St.UNC Asheville
16SE LouisianaVermontUT-MartinMD Eastern ShoreSouthernFairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Arkansas, Maryland, USC, and Clemson

Last 4 In: Nevada, Penn State, Kentucky, and Pittsburgh

First 4 Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Arizona State, and Utah State

Next 4 Out: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech

January 20, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 21, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:03 pm
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Abilene ChristianUT Arlington4.9
Air ForceSan Diego St-8.0
Alabama A&MTexas Southern-1.1
Alabama St.Prairie View A&M-1.7
Alcorn St.Florida A&M13.3
ArizonaUCLA-1.2
Arizona St.USC3.7
Arkansas Pine BluffSouthern U.-5.5
Arkansas St.Marshall-13.3
ArmyNavy2.3
Austin PeayEastern Kentucky-2.1
Boston U.Loyola (MD)7.4
Bowling GreenMiami (O)3.9
BradleyBelmont6.3
BrownColumbia12.9
BucknellHoly Cross7.9
Cal BaptistTarleton St.3.5
Cal St. NorthridgeCal St. Fullerton-6.2
Charleston SouthernCampbell1.2
ChattanoogaEast Tennessee St.10.0
ClemsonVirginia Tech2.3
Coastal CarolinaSouth Alabama-0.9
ColgateAmerican9.3
Coppin St.Norfolk St.-4.4
DrexelDelaware4.1
DukeMiami (Fla)4.7
DuquesneFordham6.9
Eastern MichiganNorthern Illinois0.2
ElonTowson-10.9
EvansvilleDrake-13.8
Florida Gulf CoastKennesaw St.3.1
Fresno St.UNLV-3.5
George WashingtonDayton-7.7
GeorgiaVanderbilt2.6
Georgia SouthernGeorgia St.2.2
Grand CanyonUtah Valley1.7
Green BayRobert Morris-8.3
HarvardCornell-2.0
Houston ChristianTexas A&M-CC-9.2
HowardMorgan St.0.0
Idaho St.Portland St.0.4
Illinois ChicagoNorthern Iowa-4.8
Illinois St.Valparaiso5.9
IUPUIDetroit-13.4
Jackson St.Bethune-Cookman7.6
JacksonvilleQueens3.6
KansasTCU7.3
Kansas St.Texas Tech4.8
KentuckyTexas A&M4.9
LamarIncarnate Word-0.2
LehighLafayette0.7
LindenwoodMorehead St.-2.4
LipscombBellarmine5.2
Little RockTennessee St.-0.8
Louisiana TechMiddle Tennessee2.7
Loyola (Chi)St. Bonaventure-2.3
LSUTennessee-12.8
McNeese St.Nicholls St.-3.8
MilwaukeeYoungstown St.-3.6
Mississippi St.Florida0.8
Mississippi Valley St.Grambling-10.2
MissouriAlabama-7.3
Missouri St.Southern Illinois1.6
MonmouthHampton0.7
MontanaMontana St.-0.6
Murray St.Indiana St.-1.2
New OrleansNorthwestern St.-5.4
North AlabamaCentral Arkansas5.4
North CarolinaNorth Carolina St.4.7
North Carolina CentralDelaware St.16.2
North DakotaOral Roberts-13.2
North Dakota St.UMKC3.2
North FloridaLiberty-10.4
NortheasternCharleston-8.8
Northern ArizonaEastern Washington-5.2
Northern ColoradoIdaho4.4
Northern KentuckyPurdue Ft. Wayne-0.2
NorthwesternWisconsin4.0
Notre DameBoston College5.9
OhioCentral Michigan10.4
Ohio St.Iowa3.0
OklahomaBaylor-1.2
Oklahoma St.Iowa St.-0.1
Old DominionAppalachian St.5.8
PacificGonzaga-16.6
Penn St.Nebraska8.0
PittsburghFlorida St.9.8
PortlandPepperdine3.5
PresbyterianLongwood-8.6
PrincetonDartmouth13.0
ProvidenceDePaul11.4
RadfordHigh Point9.1
Rhode IslandGeorge Mason-2.6
Saint Joseph’sMassachusetts0.9
Saint LouisLa Salle14.3
Saint Mary’sSanta Clara11.6
Sam Houston St.UT-Rio Grande Valley17.2
SamfordWestern Carolina8.1
San FranciscoBYU0.1
SeattleSouthern Utah1.3
Seton HallMarquette-1.3
SIU EdwardsvilleSouthern Indiana5.7
South CarolinaAuburn-14.9
South Carolina St.Maryland Eastern Shore-2.4
South DakotaOmaha3.2
South Dakota St.Denver9.3
South FloridaCentral Florida-5.5
Southeast MissouriTennessee Tech4.5
Southeastern LouisianaTexas A&M-Commerce3.5
Southern Miss.James Madison-1.3
StanfordOregon-1.7
StetsonJacksonville St.8.3
Stony BrookUNC Wilmington-6.7
Texas St.Louisiana-2.3
TroyLouisiana Monroe10.3
TulsaTulane-8.1
UABNorth Texas5.1
UC DavisCal Poly9.1
UC RiversideHawaii1.2
UC San DiegoLong Beach St.-3.9
UC Santa BarbaraCal St. Bakersfield14.4
UMBCNew Hampshire6.6
UNC AshevilleUSC Upstate8.7
UNC GreensboroMercer8.5
UT MartinEastern Illinois9.3
UtahWashington7.4
Utah St.San Jose St.13.2
Utah TechNew Mexico St.0.4
UTEPFlorida Atlantic-7.9
UTSAFlorida Intl.-1.4
VMIThe Citadel0.7
Wake ForestVirginia-2.9
Weber St.Sacramento St.2.6
West VirginiaTexas0.1
Western IllinoisSt. Thomas-0.6
Western KentuckyCharlotte-0.4
Western MichiganAkron-7.5
William & MaryNorth Carolina A&T1.2
WinthropGardner Webb-2.2
Wright St.Cleveland St.1.3
WyomingColorado St.0.1
XavierGeorgetown19.5
YalePenn7.3
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