Bubbles Are Boiling

Five Sundays from today, the NCAA Selection Committee will choose and seed the 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament.  At the present time, the Bubble list has begun to emerge with greater clarity.  There are about three dozen teams still competing for at-large bids, and more than half will not get into the Dance.

Some of the teams under consideration will eventually receive automatic bids when they win their conference tournaments.  On the other hand, there could be a few major upsets in the power conference tournaments forcing a bubble to pierce for one of these teams.

Let’s look at the principle boiling bubbles today.  We will let you decide if their resumes warrant bids or warrant bans to the NIT.

Team	Net	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Alabama	44	2-6	6-1	4-2	3-0
Arizona State	72	3-1	4-3	3-1	6-2
Baylor	32	3-5	7-1	1-0	5-2
Belmont	60	3-1	2-1	2-2	11-0
Butler	53	1-7	6-3	4-1	3-0
Central Florida	45	0-2	4-2	7-0	6-1
Clemson	39	2-6	2-2	5-0	6-0
Creighton	57	2-9	3-2	4-0	3-0
Davidson	68	0-2	3-1	6-3	8-0
Florida	42	1-9	3-1	3-1	5-0
Hofstra	51	0-2	0-1	4-1	16-0
Indiana	49	4-8	2-3	1-0	6-0
Lipscomb	30	2-3	2-1	2-0	12-0
Minnesota	58	3-6	4-2	4-0	5-0
New Mexico St.	59	0-1	2-1	8-2	9-0
North Carolina St	37	1-6	5-0	2-1	9-0
Ohio St.	36	4-5	3-2	4-0	5-0
Oklahoma	41	3-8	5-2	7-0	0-0
Ole Miss	35	3-7	3-0	4-0	6-0
Saint Mary’s	50	1-5	1-2	6-3	7-0
San Francisco	52	0-4	1-1	5-1	11-0
Seton Hall	69	2-6	7-1	2-2	3-0
St. John’s	48	4-4	4-1	2-2	8-0
TCU	33	1-7	5-0	7-0	4-0
Temple	55	1-5	5-1	4-1	7-0
Texas	34	4-6	4-4	3-1	3-0
Toledo	54	0-1	2-0	8-3	9-0
UNC Greensboro	46	1-3	1-0	5-0	13-0
Utah State	38	1-2	2-2	4-2	10-0
VCU	43	1-3	2-2	7-1	7-0
Wofford	28	2-4	3-0	4-0	9-0
Yale	62	0-3	1-0	5-1	8-0

 

Team	EFF.	SOS	Rd/Neut	Con	Ovr
Alabama	48	17	6-7	6-5	15-9
Arizona State	63	66	5-4	7-4	16-7
Baylor	34	50	5-4	7-4	16-8
Belmont	64	160	8-3	10-2	19-4
Butler	53	25	4-8	5-7	14-11
Central Florida	50	89	6-3	7-3	17-5
Clemson	31	36	4-6	5-5	15-8
Creighton	49	12	5-6	4-7	13-11
Davidson	75	106	7-6	9-2	18-6
Florida	38	29	5-7	4-6	12-11
Hofstra	67	225	7-4	11-1	21-4
Indiana	45	37	3-7	4-9	13-11
Lipscomb	33	204	9-3	11-0	20-4
Minnesota	56	51	5-6	6-7	16-8
New Mexico St.	54	134	9-3	9-1	20-4
North Carolina St	40	194	5-4	5-6	17-7
Ohio St.	32	49	6-3	6-6	16-7
Oklahoma	42	7	7-6	3-9	15-10
Ole Miss	39	63	7-4	6-4	16-7
Saint Mary’s	44	47	3-8	6-4	15-10
San Francisco	47	121	5-5	6-4	18-6
Seton Hall	66	40	6-6	5-6	14-9
St. John’s	52	57	7-4	6-6	18-7
TCU	37	20	6-5	5-6	17-7
Temple	76	56	8-5	7-4	17-7
Texas	28	3	4-6	6-6	14-11
Toledo	51	126	9-3	8-3	20-4
UNC Greensboro	80	188	10-2	11-1	22-3
Utah State	43	115	8-5	8-3	18-6
VCU	46	54	6-5	8-2	17-6
Wofford	30	133	8-3	13-0	21-4
Yale	72	123	7-4	5-1	15-4

 

Here’s an explanation of each column

Net: This is their official NCAA NET rating, the new and improved formula that supersedes all other, like the RPI.

Q1-Q4: These are the won-loss records for each quadrant.  The Quadrants are broken up into these groups.

Quadrant #	Home	Neutral	Road
Quadrant 1	1-30	1-50	1-75
Quadrant 2	31-75	51-100	76-135
Quadrant 3	76-160	101-200	136-240
Quadrant 4	161-353	201-353	241-353

If you play the #101 team at home, this is a Quadrant 3 opponent.  If you play the #101 team on their floor, this is a Quadrant 2 opponent.  If you host the #50 team, it counts as Quadrant 2, but if you play that team on a neutral floor or on the road, it is a Quadrant 1 game.

EFF.: This is the ranking in total efficiency, which is offensive efficiency combined with defensive efficiency and adjusted for strength of schedule.

SOS: This is the ranking of strengths of schedule for each team.  Keep in mind that the difference between #1 and #50 may be minimal, while the difference between #51 and #100 may be considerably more.

Rd/Neut: This is the combined road and neutral court won-loss records

Con and Ovr: Although not used by the Committee, this is the conference and overall won-loss records for each team for you to look at and decide for yourself if a certain team belongs in the Dance.  We are not 100% convinced that committee members don’t subconsciously let this stat creep into their decision-making process.  If a team finishes four games under .500 in their league while another finishes four game over .500, that four game swing is going to count for something, even if it isn’t supposed to count.

Trying To Think Like A Committee Member

Let’s look at each school on this list.

Alabama

With wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Committee might overlook losses to Northeastern and Georgia State.  Two of the Tide’s non-conference losses are to probable NCAA Tournament teams Central Florida and Baylor.  The Tide sits at 6-5 in the SEC and projects to a 10-8 or 11-7 final mark.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation with possibility of starting in Dayton.

Arizona St.

The Pac-12 surely cannot be limited to just one bid, can it?  The Committee is not supposed to look at this metric, but this is no different than when the judge tells the jury to disregard a remark from a sustained objection in a court room.  Of course, it is remembered.

Arizona State beat Kansas and Mississippi State.  This past weekend, they handed Washington their first Pac-12 loss.  The Sun Devils lost a close game to Nevada.  They also lost at home to Princeton and recently were blown out at home by Pac-12 cellar dweller Washington State by 21 points.  They also lost at SEC last place Vanderbilt by 16, and they barely beat SEC #13 Georgia.

Does the Kansas win and close loss to Nevada do enough for the Sun Devils?  Their NET rating is 72, and their strength of schedule is 66.  In their favor, Arizona State has a winning record away from Tempe.

Verdict: Sorry, nothing in the inbox but some ads for hotels near Madison Square Garden in late March that you probably won’t need.

Baylor

The Bears lost early in the season to some really weak teams in Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but the TSU loss may turn out to be to a future NCAA Tournament team.  At 7-4 in the Big 12 with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and TCU, plus a sweep of Oklahoma, Baylor is on the inside as of now.  We project Baylor to finish 10-8 in the league, and with this league’s strength, Coach Scott Drew can sleep peacefully when his team is eventually ousted in the Big 12 Tournament.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and does not have to make travel arrangements to Dayton.

 

Belmont

Every year, Coach Rick Byrd has his Bruins among consideration for an NCAA Tournament bid, and this year is no different.  Belmont won at UCLA and Murray State, and they swept rival Lipscomb, who is in the top 30 and also in discussion for a potential at-large bid.  Among their losses is to Purdue in West Lafayette, but also among the losses are two to Jacksonville State.

We project Belmont to win out in the regular season to enter the OVC Tournament at 16-2 in the conference and 24-4 overall.  The Bruins will be the mild favorite to win the automatic bid, but Murray State, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville State will have shots as well.  If Belmont lost to Murray in the Championship Game and finished 26-5, the Bruins would have to be part of the at-large discussion.

Verdict: The Bruins need to win the automatic bid and then become a very game 12-seed.  Too many Bubble teams have to fold for Belmont to rise up and secure an at-large bid.  We believe as an automatic bid-winner and #12 seed, the Bruins are equipped with the talent and coaching to win their first tournament game after some near misses.

 

Butler

This Bulldogs team is not in the class with some of their recent NCAA Tournament teams.  A lone Quadrant 1 win came in a neutral contest with Florida, a team which they played a second time a month later and lost by close to 40 points.

The next most impressive victory is a home win over Ole Miss.  Butler’s NET rating of 53 is on the in-out line, but in their favor is a #25 strength of schedule

Verdict: We hear Dayton is lovely in March.  Even if it snows several inches, you will be very happy you got to visit Southwestern Ohio.  It’s an easy 2 hour drive.

 

Central Florida

The Golden Knights beat Alabama and Temple, and they lost to Houston.  UCF should get to 10 wins in the American Athletic Conference, but the Knights need to pull off one big win to solidify their at-large standing against their peers.  UCF will get that chance with games remaining with Cincinnati and Houston.  A sweep of South Florida might also be impressive enough to push them over the top.

Verdict: Hanging on to a First Four bid for now

 

Clemson

The Tigers don’t have many great wins on their schedule.  Their recent upset of Virginia Tech and an earlier win over Lipscomb are the only Quadrant 1 victories.  In their favor, they are 11-0 against Q3 and Q4 combined, so their losses have been to good or great teams.

We project CU to go 8-10 in ACC play, which in most years gets an ACC team into the field, whether it is deserved or not.  Clemson might need one more upset to complete their resume-building.  They certainly need to hold serve against the teams beneath them in the league.  A win tonight at Miami would be mighty.  We think that a win at home over Florida State, North Carolina, or Syracuse would give them all the juice they need.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and probably not one to Dayton

 

Creighton

The Big East is top heavy with two superior teams and a half dozen good but not great teams.  At 4-7 in league play, the Blue Jays have a lot of work left to do to get onto the upper half of the Bubble.

The one thing keeping Creighton in the discussion currently is the fact that they have played 12 Quadrant 1 games so far and have a top 15 strength of schedule.  However, they are only 2-10 in those games.

Creighton’s next four games are must-win games.  The Blue Jays have to take care of Xavier tonight in Cincinnati and then beat Seton Hall, DePaul, and Georgetown to improve to 8-7 when they travel to Marquette in March.  A 6-1 finish from here would put CU at 10-8 in the league and 19-12 overall, where an opening round win in the Big East Tournament would give the Blue Jays a strong chance to get in.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if they meet the parameters set above.  As of today, we’d say their invitation would be to host a game in the NIT.

 

Davidson

Bob McKillop is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball.  While Davidson has an exceptional history of greatness thanks to what legendary coach Lefty Driesell did 50 years ago, those were different times.  Driesell recruited four or five players as good as Stephen Curry, and he brought Davidson to the top five of the rankings in 1964, 1965, 1968, and 1969.  McKillop inherited a mess when he took over this program that was coming off a 24-loss season plus the transfer of their one good player.  He’s now led the Wildcats for 30 seasons!

Of course, none of this means anything to the Selection Committee.  Davidson’s resume is iffy at this point, and without an automatic bid, it looks like a slim possibility.  Their only quality win to date is a home game victory over conference co-contender Virginia Commonwealth.  This is their only win against a top 100 team, and it came at home.  Unless they face VCU in the Conference Tournament, they will face just one other top 100 team the rest of the way.  The stars just don’t align for the Wildcats this year.

Verdict: They better win the automatic bid or plan on playing in the NIT, CBI, or CIT

 

Florida

Coach Michael White is underachieving in Gainesville, and, following in the footsteps of Billy Donovan, could find his seat heating up quickly if the Gators miss out on this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Florida’s schedule is the only reason why at 4-6 in the SEC and 12-11 overall that they are still in consideration as an at-large team.  The Gators are looking at 8-10 in the league and 16-15 overall.  With that record, they will have to win at least three SEC Tournament games to even be in the final discussion.

Verdict: One of the biggest disappointments of the season does not receive an NCAA bid and may not receive an NIT bid either

 

Hofstra

Make no bones about it, Hofstra is not a real at-large candidate.  However, we wanted to list the Pride here to show you their resume.  At 21-4, the Pride has no Q1 or Q2 wins.  They are 16-0 against Q4, and their strength of schedule ranks 225.  We wanted to show them to you so you can compare them with the other Mid-major teams on this list.  We could have also shown you UC-Irvine, a team in a similar boat with Hofstra, while Wofford, UNC Greensboro, Belmont, and Lipscomb have some tiny at-large hopes.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if it is automatic

 

Indiana

This was supposed to be a much better year in Hoosierland, and like his brother Sean, Archie Miller has come under fire.  IU was supposed to contend with the Michigan schools and Purdue for the Big Ten title.  Instead, the Hoosiers find themselves mired in a tenth place tie in the Big Ten at 4-9/13-11.

Indiana has the bare minimum criteria to squeak in as a fortunate bubble team.  Their NET rating is just under 50, and most power league teams in the top 50 get into the field.  Their strength of schedule is 37, and this is okay for any major conference team on the bubble.  Their efficiency rating is also okay at 45, not great but adequate enough for a Big Ten team.

With 12 Quadrant 1 games and wins in four of those contests, the Hoosiers have proven they can compete at the top of the game.  Of their seven remaining games, five are against tough opponents, and Indiana needs to win two of those five games and four overall to enter the Big Ten Tournament not needing to win three games to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid.

Verdict: At the present time, we have them as the #68 team in the field, and they would be slotted to go to Dayton, where they might have to play Butler. What a rivalry game played close enough for the fans to make the commute by car!

 

Lipscomb

The Atlantic Sun Conference is mid-major at best and borders on low-major status, but Florida Gulf Coast proved this league has the ability to send teams to the Sweet 16.

Lipscomb made its first NCAA Tournament appearance last year and scared North Carolina for a half.  This Bisons team is better than last year, and the former NAIA superpower might be talented enough to replicate what FGCU did earlier in the decade.

Lipscomb has played five Q1 games, all on the road and won twice, once against TCU.  They have no bad losses, going 14-0 against Q3 & Q4.  Among their losses is a four-pointer at Louisville.

If Lipscomb beats Liberty tonight in Nashville to complete the season sweep, they will almost assuredly win out to finish 16-0/25-4 before hosting all their conference tournament games.  It would take a lot to not be the automatic qualifier, but in the event they lost to Liberty in the finals, they would be 27-5 with a lot of positives on their resume.

Verdict: The Bisons are a very likely automatic qualifier, but if they were 27-5, it would take a lot of statistics-bending to exclude them from the at-large pool.  However, we have faith that the Selection Committee would find ways to ship Lipscomb to the NIT in favor of the ninth place team in the ACC or 10th place team in the Big Ten or even the fifth best Big East team, or even TCU who lost at home to this Lipscomb team.

 

Minnesota

Richard Pitino, Saul Phillips, Murray Bartow, and Bryce Drew know what it is like to have fathers that enjoyed long, successful careers in college basketball.  They also know what it is like to have their team’s fanatics wishing that those great coaches had created daughters rather than sons.  Pitino is on very thin ice in Minneapolis, and the Gophers must make the Big Dance if Pitino is to stay employed in the Cities in 2020.

The Gophers are in 8th place in the Big Ten with a 16-8 record overall.  This is just enough to meet the minimum for a Big Ten team.  Their NET rating is 59, which is right on the line for average lowest rating that gets in.  Three Quad 1 wins and a 5-6 record away from home gives the Gophers a decent shot at making the field.

Minnesota’s closing schedule could cinch their bid or kill their chances.  Their more winnable games are on the road, and the tougher opponents must come to Minneapolis.  Tonight’s game at Nebraska could be a bell-weather contest.  A loss might open the door for another bubble team to step up and pass the Gophers.

Verdict: For now, we believe the Selection Committee would send the Gophers an Invitation and even allow them to avoid the First Four.  However, a 3-4 finish to give UM a 9-11 mark in the league and 19-12 overall might put Minny on the wrong side of the Bubble if they lost their first Big Ten Tournament game.  Pitino loses his job if UM misses the Dance.

 

New Mexico St.

New Mexico State is not getting an at-large bid, even if the Aggies win out until the WAC Championship Game and then lose to Grand Canyon or Cal St. Bakersfield by one point in overtime.

Let’s look at their resume.  They lost at Kansas by three points, and that was their only Q1 game.  Even had they beaten Kansas by three, their resume is too thin with just one Q1 game.

NMSU is just one spot behind Minnesota in the NET Ratings, and the Aggies are 9-3 away from Las Cruces.  However, their strength of schedule rates at number 134, and we learned from the top-16 seed reveal last week just how much this year’s Committee valued strength of schedule.

Verdict: No At-large chance, but we believe this team could be 30-4 when they win the WAC’s automatic bid.  Coach Chris Jans has overcome a lot of adversity to resurrect his career.  NMSU will be a dangerous 12 or 13 seed.

 

North Carolina St.

Kevin Keatts is one of our favorite basketball coaches.  We are in high regard of his ability to evaluate talent and alter his schemes to best exploit opponent weaknesses and utilize his talent.  Even that embarrassing oops loss to Virginia Tech does not alter our opinion.  Keatts is a Final Four coach of the future, be it here or some place else.

This Wolf Pack team is not going to advance very far in the NCAA Tournament, but they will almost definitely receive a bid based on their results so far.

When an ACC team has a top 40 NET rating, they are going dancing.  NCSU is presently #39.  The Wolf Pack currently has a winning record away from Raleigh.

All is not peachy though with their resume.  Their Strength of Schedule is an unheard of for an ACC team #194, because they played six of the bottom 34 teams in Division 1, including the two weakest of all.  State only has one Q1 win all year, a home victory over Auburn which looks less impressive now than it did then.

The Pack can easily finish the regular season on a 5-2 sprint to a 10-8 regular season conference record, which gets an ACC team an at-large bid better than 95% of the time.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation as one of the last teams in that do not play in the First Four

 

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes really should not be in this discussion.  The only reason why we include them here is that they still need to avoid a total collapse.  At 6-6/16-7, if OSU goes 3-5 down the stretch, they will get into the field.

Road wins over Cincinnati, Indiana, and Creighton are impressive enough already, but we see the Buckeyes finishing no worse than 4-4 and possibly 5-3 to make their selection quite easy.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Oklahoma

Can a team that is 3-9 in their conference really be in the hunt for an at-large bid?  Oklahoma certainly hopes so, and thanks to the Big 12’s overall concentration of power, the Sooners do have a legitimate chance to get into the Field of 68 with a conference mark no better than 7-11.

In OU’s favor is a schedule that faced no Q4 teams and just seven Q3 teams.  Oklahoma went 7-0 in those games.  Their overall strength of schedule is #7, which means that a winning overall record is going to be enough to give them a chance.

Oklahoma has six games remaining prior to the league tourney, and if they go 3-3 with one of those wins coming against Kansas, and then they win their first Big 12 Tournament game, the Sooners will be in good enough shape to expect great things on March 17.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they go 3-3 plus one Big 12 Tournament win

 

Ole Miss

Ole Miss is 16-7, and all seven of their losses came to Q1 teams!  They have three Q1 wins, including one on the road against Mississippi State.

A 35 NET rating and 39 Efficiency rating makes their resume complete.  At this point, Ole Miss is competing for a 7 or 8 seed and not needing to worry about missing out on the Dance, unless they totally collapse.  Coach Kermit Davis has done an incredible job in his first year in Oxford.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels have received an at-large bid in the past, but they also beat Gonzaga in the past.  This year, it appears out of reach, and a 11-5/22-12 final record (the best possible without beating Gonzaga, is most likely to fall short of the minimum needed criteria.

Verdict: SMC is going to have to beat Gonzaga to have any chance, and most likely, that win will have to come in the finals of the WCC Tournament, which would then give the Gaels the automatic bid and Gonzaga an at-large bid at the expense of another team on this list.

 

San Francisco

At one time earlier this year, USF looked like a potential at-large team.  A 13-point loss at home to Gonzaga followed by losses at Saint Mary’s and San Diego, basically necessitated winning at Gonzaga to have a real chance.  The Zags ran the Dons off the floor, ending USF’s at-large possibilities.

Verdict: No bid unless USF pulls off the upset and wins the West Coast Tournament Championship.  We cannot see USF beating Gonzaga, but if the Dons earn the #2 or #3 seed in the conference tournament, while BYU earns the #4 seed, then the Dons could hope that the Cougars upset Gonzaga, giving them a chance to knock off BYU for the automatic bid.

 

Seton Hall

Seton Hall is in a similar boat to Butler and Creighton in the up and down Big East race.  The Pirates have some pluses and some minuses in their quest to get a bid.

On the plus side are wins over Kentucky and Maryland, but countering those two great Q1 victories are losses at home to St. Louis and DePaul.  Three of their Q1 losses were by five points or less, and they have only played seven games against Q3 & Q4 teams.

With a 69 NET Rating, the Pirates need to improve their standing in the last five weeks.  The schedule is quite tough with the top two Big East teams (Villanova and Marquette) still on the schedule, and the Hall has road games with Creighton, St. John’s, and Georgetown.  We expect SHU to enter the Big East Tournament at 7-11/16-14, and the Big East is not strong enough for a team with fewer than 10 conference wins or nine with a couple of conference tournament wins to get in.

Verdict: Looks like they will be disappointed on Selection Sunday without an upset of Marquette or Villanova and a 9-9 Big East record

 

St. John’s

St. John’s is only a half-game in front of Seton Hall, but their resume might as well be 20 games ahead.  The Red Storm have played a much tougher schedule this year, and schedule strength appears to be very important, just behind NET Ratings, with the Committee.  Sweeps of Marquette and Creighton with their worst loss coming against DePaul gives SJU a strong shot at making the field.  Add a 7-4 record away from home, and the Red Storm would have to collapse to miss out this year.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation, probably an 8 or 9 seed

 

TCU

Like Ole Miss, all of TCU’s losses have come to Quadrant 1 teams.  They are 16-0 against all others.  A 33 NET rating and 20 Strength of Schedule Rating puts the Horned Frogs well up into the good graces of the Selection Committee.

TCU should be no worse than 9-9 in the Big 12, and when a league is as strong up and down as this one, the 9-9 team always gets into the field.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Temple

When a top 10 team has just one loss all year, the team that beat them gets added oomph in their resume.  Temple gave Houston their only loss so far this year.  The Owls lost their other five Q1 games to date.

Temple’s NET Rating is 55, which puts them on the Bubble for sure.  Their Strength of Schedule is 56, which is at the bottom of the allowed SOS for an at-large team.  An 8-5 record away from home (7-4 away from the City of Brotherly Love) makes their criteria smack dab in the hunt as one of the final teams in our highest teams out.

Temple can go 5-2 the rest of the regular season to finish at 12-6 in the league.  With a win in the AAC Tournament, that would give the Owls at least 23 wins, and that would leave them exactly where they are now–in the middle of the discussion between teams number 67 and 70.  A win at South Florida this weekend would really help.

 

Texas

The Longhorns have the worst record of teams that appear to be in good shape with the Selection Committee.  At 6-6/14-11, UT still has work to do just to guarantee a plus .500 record.  They have played the third toughest schedule in the nation, and they own wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.

Add a 34 NET Rating and 28 Efficiency Rating, and Texas only needs to get enough wins down the stretch to guarantee an at-large bid.  A 9-9 Big 12 record does the trick.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Toledo

The PiRate Ratings are big fans of the Mid-Major conferences that have been around for decades, and the MAC is one of those leagues.  Toledo was really good back in the late 1960’s when Steve Mix played for the Rockets prior to starting in the NBA.  Success has been limited for Toledo on the hardwoods since then.

This Toledo team has no chance of securing an at-large bid, and with a 30-point loss to Buffalo, it is hard to see them getting revenge in the championship game of the MAC Tournament.  Still, we include them in this write-up, because the MAC Tournament is always competitive, and the top-seeded team loses in it more than the average conference.

Toledo is one of three or four teams that could upset Buffalo, although this year’s Buffalo team has all the tools to sweep the regular season and conference tournament.  However, if Buffalo loses, then obviously another team must win the automatic bid, while Buffalo bursts a Bubble for another team as a certain at-large team.

A 9-3 record away from home makes this a dangerous team in Cleveland.  Toledo will waltz into Cleveland as the number one seed from the West Division, so Buffalo will have to beat two others before the Rockets will have to glare at the Bulls in a possible title game.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only bid winning automatic bid, but Buffalo still gets in if they lose the MAC Tournament

 

UNC Greensboro

This is a team no favorite from a power conference will want to see in a potential Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.  UNCG is a tough matchup, and the Spartans have a unique style that is hard to prepare for on a couple day’s notice.

With a 46 NET Rating, UNCG is worthy of an at-large bid if they were to win out all the way to the Socon Championship Game and lose a close one to Wofford.  The Spartans are 10-2 away from Greensboro, but their issue is a schedule that is rated 188 (which is still ahead of North Carolina State).

If UNCG is to earn enough respect to be in the at-large pool, the Spartans must win their two big games this week.  They play at Furman tonight, and then meet Wofford in Spartanburg Saturday.  If UNCG wins out but loses in the SoCon Championship Game, they will be 30-4 and in the mix for one of the last four bids.

 

Utah St.

With a 38 NET Rating and 43 Efficiency Rating, Utah State should be in the almost safe range for an at-large bid, but the Aggies are still on the outside looking in thanks to a strength of schedule rated 115.  Utah State has seven regular season games left, and if they win out, they will enter the MWC Tournament at 15-3/25-6.  Most importantly, if they win out, it will mean the Aggies beat Nevada.  The boys from Reno come to Logan on March 2.  USU almost has to win that game to have any serious at-large chances, but they also have a chance to win the automatic bid in the tough Mountain West.  Nevada won the MWC last year and failed to make the tournament title game as the number one seed, so history could repeat.

Verdict: We believe the Aggies deserve an at-large bid as of today, and for now we will give the Selection Committee the benefit of the doubt in realizing that they deserve to be in

 

Virginia Commonwealth

At the current time, we actually have VCU as the likely automatic bid winner from the Atlantic 10, ahead of Davidson, but we included the Rams here to show you how close they are to qualifying as an at-large team.

VCU has a 43 NET Rating, 54 Strength of Schedule, and 46 Efficiency Rating.  This is already better than some of the other teams thought to be among the last four in and first four out.  They have a 6-5 record away from home and won at Texas.  They suffered narrow losses to Virginia and St. John’s.

We project VCU to finish 15-3 in the A-10 and 24-7 overall in the regular season.  If they lose in the conference tournament and finish 26-8, the Rams will be in the mix for an at-large bid.

Verdict: We believe VCU has the best chance of winning the A-10 Tournament and the automatic bid, but if they lose in the Championship Game, the Rams still have a chance depending on how many Power Conferences have major upsets or if teams like Buffalo and Nevada lose in their conference tournaments

Wofford

If we told you that an anonymous team was ranked 28 in the NET Ratings with the number 30 Efficiency Rating, and with a 20-point road win at the number four team in the SEC, and with four losses all year to North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma, you might reply that Auburn or Texas Tech will obviously make the NCAA Tournament, guessing from the information given that one of these two teams must be that anonymous team.

Mention Wofford to 99% of the general college basketball fandom public, and you are very likely to hear such fanatic tell you that they will be another one of those first round 25-point losers to some Big Ten team.

Wofford and UNC Greensboro both probably belong in the NCAA Tourmament.  Unfortunately, one of these two are likely to be team number 69, 70, 71, or 72.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they earn the automatic bid

 

Yale

There has never been an at-large Ivy League team, and there isn’t going to be one this year, even if Yale is probably better than a couple of teams seriously on the Bubble.

The Bulldogs’ best win is a neutral court victory over Miami of Florida.  Their resume won’t get them an at-large bid.  We project the Bulldogs to go 12-2 in the Ivy League to earn the top seed in the four-team tournament.  We also project Yale to win the Tournament to finish 24-5, where they will earn no better than a 13 seed and possible a 14 seed.  At 13, there are multiple potential 4 seeds that could be uspet by this Yale team.

 

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PiRate Ratings–College Football Final 2018-19

Congratulations go to the Clemson Tigers for their outstanding performance last night in their four touchdown victory over Alabama.  With a quarterback that will be back for at least two more seasons, the Tigers must be considered the early favorite to repeat as champions next year and maybe the year after as well.  In the previous decade, the Indianapolis Colts arranged to have their worst ever season at the right time.  The phrase, “Let’s suck for Luck,” was in vogue in the Sycamore State, as the Colts won the rights to the first pick in the NFL Draft.  The new phrase for 2021 might be, “Be Clever and suck for Trevor,” because Trevor Lawrence looks like he could be another all-time NFL great.

Alabama fans know that their team will be back.  When your coach continually recruits the top class or one of the top five year after year, and he employs more coaches by calling them advisers, Alabama, Inc. will continue to return heavy profits.  Of course, Nick Saban will be offered the chance to return to the NFL, but personally we cannot see Saban leaving Alabama off a game like this.  He wants a 15-0 season with 15 double digit wins, and then we can retire and run his Mercedes-Benz Dealership hands-on by recruiting car buyers.

Many of you reading this today might not realize that this was not Alabama’s worst ever showing in a bowl game being played for the National Championship.  There was a worse outcome, and I watched it 47 years ago in the Orange Bowl.

#1 Nebraska, certainly one of the five best college teams ever, thoroughly destroyed #2 Alabama that year 38-6, and the score could have been much worse.  The Cornhuskers scored a touchdown early in the first quarter on a sustained drive, mixing up power runs, option runs, and play-action passes from their wing-I offense and took a quick 7-0 lead.  Alabama’s potent wishbone offense was greatly slowed by Nebraska’s 5-2 defense that closely resembled the All Big 8 Team.

In the last minute of the first quarter, the game was basically decided.  Alabama punted and chose to punt the ball to All-American Johnny Rodgers.  The future Heisman Trophy winner had broken the hearts of Oklahoma with a long punt return that led the Cornhuskers to victory over the Sooners on Thanksgiving Day in the “Game of the Century.”  On this night, Rodgers fielded the punt on the second bounce at his own 23 yard line.  He quickly scampered to his right to avoid two Alabama defenders, and then he faked two more almost out of their shoes before picking up a wall of blockers down the right sideline.  A few seconds later, Nebraska had a two touchdown lead as the first quarter expired.  Two more second quarter touchdowns made it 28-0 at the half, and it was apparent that the number two and number three teams were Big Eight foes Oklahoma and Colorado.  Coach Bob Devaney played his reserves for most of the second half, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 pasting of the 11-0 Crimson Tide.  Coach Bear Bryant called this Nebraska team the greatest of all time, and he admitted that the Cornhuskers basically toyed with his team.

Here are the Final PiRate Ratings for the 2018-19 season

#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Alabama
3	Ohio St.
4	Notre Dame
5	Georgia
6	Oklahoma
7	LSU
8	Michigan
9	Florida
10	Texas A&M
11	Washington
12	Auburn
13	Iowa
14	Washington St.
15	Kentucky
16	Texas
17	Mississippi St.
18	Syracuse
19	Penn St.
20	Stanford
21	Fresno St.
22	Missouri
23	Utah St.
24	West Virginia
25	Utah
26	Central Florida
27	Army
28	Boise St.
29	Northwestern
30	N. Carolina St.
31	Miami
32	S. Carolina
33	Wisconsin
34	Oregon
35	Oklahoma St.
36	Cincinnati
37	Duke
38	Michigan St.
39	Iowa State
40	Virginia
41	Boston College
42	Georgia Tech
43	Pittsburgh
44	T C U
45	Arizona St.
46	Ohio U
47	Appalachian St.
48	Minnesota
49	U A B
50	Wake Forest
51	Purdue
52	California
53	Baylor
54	Texas Tech
55	U S C
56	Vanderbilt
57	Troy
58	BYU
59	Temple
60	Nebraska
61	Kansas St.
62	Florida St.
63	Marshall
64	Ole Miss
65	Indiana
66	Maryland
67	Memphis
68	Virginia Tech
69	Tennessee
70	Buffalo
71	Arizona
72	Georgia Southern
73	Houston
74	Toledo
75	Northern Illinois
76	Nevada
77	Florida Int’l.
78	Tulane
79	Wyoming
80	U C L A
81	N. Texas
82	Colorado
83	Middle Tennessee
84	Miami (O)
85	San Diego St.
86	Eastern Michigan
87	Louisiana Tech
88	Arkansas St.
89	Air Force
90	Florida Atlantic
91	South Florida
92	SMU
93	Western Michigan
94	N. Carolina
95	Kansas
96	Arkansas
97	Navy
98	Southern Miss.
99	Rutgers
100	Illinois
101	UL-Monroe
102	Akron
103	Tulsa
104	Hawaii
105	W. Kentucky
106	Louisiana
107	Colorado St.
108	U N L V
109	Oregon St.
110	Louisville
111	Charlotte
112	New Mexico
113	East Carolina
114	Massachusetts
115	Bowling Green
116	Old Dominion
117	Liberty
118	San Jose St.
119	Ball St.
120	Central Michigan
121	Kent St.
122	Coastal Carolina
123	Georgia St.
124	U T S A
125	South Alabama
126	Texas State
127	N. Mexico St.
128	Rice
129	Connecticut
130	UTEP

Coming Later Today–The PiRate Ratings for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.  

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for The College Football National Championship Game & The NFL Wildcard Playoff Round

Final Land Sharp Selections

The Land Sharps are limping home to the finish, as the Bowl season did not go so well for our five friends.  Let’s give them all some props for faring so well during the regular season.  It isn’t easy to stay above the magic 52.4% success rate that a sports investor needs to return a profit, and all five did so throughout the regular season.

Now, here’s something else you should know.  If you are a regular reader here, you may recall just after the bowls and playoffs were announced, that we told you about our experiment in playing the Money Line on every bowl game and by investing the identical amount on the underdog to win outright.  We tested this out last year with a healthy profit.

If last year was a healthy profit, this year was a giant windfall!  Friends, this method drained the imaginary money from the imaginary sports book like it was Jesse and Frank James robbing it.  The return on investment was over 61%, as 16 of the 38 underdogs won outright, returning an average of $289 per upset.  If you had the funds and could afford to put down $10,000 on the Underdog on the 39 games (which became 38 after the postponement of the former Heart of Dallas Bowl), these money line wagers would have returned just under a quarter million dollars.  WOW!

Now, to make it even better.  Had you only played the 36 bowl games and not the two playoff games, you would have gone 16-20 and your return on investment would have been 76.5%!  Where else can you get a 76.5% return on your investment in 17 days?

Here are the final Land Sharp Picks for the National Championship Game.  Our Land Sharps made these selections earlier in the week when the going odds were:

Alabama – 5.5

Clemson +7

Over 59.5

Under 60 

 

Three of the Land Sharps selected Clemson and took the points

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, and Stewed Meat

Two of the Land Sharps selected Alabama and gave the points

Buckeye Michelle and Friday Dog 13

 

Four of the Land Sharps took the OVER

Cal Gal Tiffany, Dean615, Buckeye Michelle, and Friday Dog 13

One Land Sharp took the UNDER

Stewed Meat

 

As for the PiRates, we issued our ratings earlier this week, and they showed that Alabama is favored by 1 to 2 points, so if you go by our ratings, the play would be Clemson but without a lot of confidence.  As for the Total, our estimate is basically right on the line, so we would lay off the total unless you tease it.

 

The PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Playoff Teasers

Once playoff season begins, there are fewer and fewer chances to play our successful teasers, but 2018 was a very good one for us, as our NFL Teasers returned a neat little imaginary profit.  We hope you understand that our wagering is only hypothetical, as no real currency ever changes hands, and we highly encourage you not to lose your mortgage payment by relying on our selections.

We have two 13-point teaser selections for this week’s Wildcard Round.  One is a four-team parlay on sides, and one is a four-team parlay on totals.  These parlays both have 12-10 odds.

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Indianapolis	Houston	12	Houston
Dallas	Seattle	15	Seattle
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	16	L.A. Chargers
Chicago	Philadelphia	19.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	Indianapolis	61.5	UNDER
Dallas	Seattle	30	OVER
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	28.5	OVER
Chicago	Philadelphia	28	OVER

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for December 29- January 1 Bowls and NFL Week 17

This is a very busy day here on the PiRate ship, as we will debut our 2018-19 version of PiRate Ratings Basketball later today.

The Land Sharps have been coming down to Earth since their blistering hot November, as December has not been kind to our five friends.  At the same time, the PiRate Ratings picks have continued to win in December, especially the Bowl game Money Lines, where we have experimented with playing the underdog in every game and finding the most favorable underdog Money Line odds.  With underdogs winning all three games on Thursday, the Return on Investment for this system to date is now 64.16%!  This includes a push in the Boston College and Boise State game that was cancelled due to severe lightning.

This Week’s Land Sharp Picks

Cal Gal Tiffany

Nevada -1 vs. Arkansas St.

Central Florida +8 vs. LSU

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Stewed Meat

Mississippi St. -7 vs. Auburn

Penn St. -6 vs. Kentucky

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Dean 615

Florida +6 vs. Michigan

Notre Dame +12.5 vs. Clemson

Oklahoma +15 vs. Alabama

 

Buckeye Michelle

Oklahoma St. +9 vs. Missouri

Ohio State – 6.5 vs. Washington

Texas +14 vs. Georgia

 

Friday Dog 13

Auburn -3 vs. Purdue

Michigan -5.5 vs. Florida

Clemson -12 vs. Notre Dame

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks

10-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Jacksonville	17	Jacksonville
Green Bay	Detroit	19	Detroit
New England	N.Y. Jets	24.5	N.Y. Jets
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Chicago	14.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Oakland	24.5	Oakland
Philadelphia	Washington	17.5	Washington
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
L.A. Rams	San Francisco	0.5	L.A.Rams
L.A. Chargers	Denver	17	Denver
Tennessee	Indianapolis	7	Indianapolis
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Houston	Jacksonville	50	UNDER
Green Bay	Detroit	34.5	OVER
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	61.5	UNDER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
New England	N.Y. Jets	35	OVER
Chicago	Minnesota	30	OVER
Oakland	Kansas City	42.5	OVER
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Philadelphia	Washington	32	OVER
L.A.Rams	San Francisco	38.5	OVER
L.A. Chargers	Denver	31.5	OVER
13-point Teasers
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
New Orleans	Carolina	21.5	Carolina
Miami	Buffalo	8	Buffalo
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	3	Pittsburgh
Baltimore	Cleveland	18.5	Cleveland
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	58.5	UNDER
Cleveland	Baltimore	27.5	OVER
Arizona	Seattle	25.5	OVER
Indianapolis	Tennessee	30.5	OVER
Favorite	Underdog	Moneyline	Pick
Michigan	Florida	+210	Florida
South Carolina	Virginia	+185	Virginia
Nevada	Arkansas St.	+105	Arkansas St.
Clemson	Notre Dame	+380	Notre Dame
Alabama	Oklahoma	+490	Oklahoma
Cincinnati	Virginia Tech	+195	Virginia Tech
Stanford	Pittsburgh	+195	Pittsburgh
Oregon	Michigan St.	+120	Michigan St.
Missouri	Oklahoma St.	+315	Oklahoma St.
Utah	Northwestern	+255	Northwestern
Texas A&M	North Carolina St.	+248	North Carolina St.
Mississippi St.	Iowa	+245	Iowa
LSU	Central Florida	+260	Central Florida
Penn St.	Kentucky	+220	Kentucky
Ohio St.	Washington	+220	Washington
Georgia	Texas	+410	Texas

 

Remember: Neither the Land Sharps or the PiRates wager real money on the selections presented here at this site.  We recommend you do the same.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Check back at this site Friday afternoon for our first college basketball report of the season, featuring our top 25, picks of games involving teams in power conferences, and a little something else.

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Bowls & Playoffs

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday	December 15
New Mexico Bowl		2:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah St.	North Texas	11.6	10.2	12.4
Cure Bowl		2:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Louisiana	9.3	7.5	7.3
Las Vegas Bowl		3:30 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	Arizona St.	2.8	3.7	3.4
Camellia Bowl		5:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern	Eastern Michigan	-4.7	-4.2	-4.3
New Orleans Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Middle Tennessee	-0.6	-0.7	-0.2
Tuesday	December 18
Boca Raton Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
UAB	Northern Illinois	-0.6	0.7	-0.2
Wednesday	December 19
Frisco Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
San Diego St.	Ohio U	-8.7	-9.8	-9.4
Thursday	December 20
Gasparilla Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Florida	Marshall	-1.9	-2.8	-3.0
Friday	December 21
Bahamas Bowl		12:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Florida Int’l.	9.8	7.9	9.3
Idaho Potato Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	BYU	-11.1	-10.0	-11.2
Saturday	December 22	12:00 PM on ESPN
Birmingham Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Wake Forest	-2.3	0.7	0.3
Armed Forces Bowl		3:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Army	-1.3	-1.5	-1.2
Dollar General Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Troy	5.6	5.8	5.1
Hawaii Bowl		10:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Hawaii	Louisiana Tech	-3.3	-3.6	-4.0
Wednesday	December 26
First Responder Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Boston College	-0.3	1.7	0.5
Quick Lane Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Minnesota	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.6	-11.4
Cheez-it Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	California	0.4	1.2	-0.8
Thursday	December 27	1:30 PM on ESPN
Independence Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Duke	Temple	6.4	4.1	5.0
Pinstripe Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wisconsin	Miami (Fla.)	-6.5	-7.5	-7.0
Texas Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baylor	Vanderbilt	-0.4	-2.1	-1.1
Friday	December 28
Music City Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Auburn	Purdue	6.8	7.2	8.4
Camping World Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	West Virginia	1.0	0.8	1.2
Arizona Bowl		5:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Nevada	Arkansas St.	3.6	2.2	1.6
Alamo Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa St.	Washington St.	-3.3	-3.9	-3.6
Saturday	December 29
Peach Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida	Michigan	-9.7	-9.9	-9.6
Belk Bowl		12:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Carolina	Virginia	5.9	4.8	6.6
Cotton Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Clemson	Notre Dame	12.6	12.9	14.3
Orange Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	Oklahoma	19.2	18.7	20.8
Monday	December 31
Redbox Bowl		3:00 PM on Fox
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	Michigan St.	-0.8	1.0	0.4
Military Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Cincinnati	1.9	-0.2	1.0
Sun Bowl		2:00 PM on CBS
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Stanford	Pittsburgh	5.3	4.2	6.1
Liberty Bowl		3:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	Oklahoma St.	12.0	12.1	13.1
Holiday Bowl		7:00 PM on FS1
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah	Northwestern	6.0	6.1	6.7
Gator Bowl		7:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Texas A&M	-2.9	-2.7	-4.0
Tuesday	January 1
Outback Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN2
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa	Mississippi St.	-7.5	-7.8	-9.3
Citrus Bowl		1:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kentucky	Penn St.	-6.7	-5.6	-6.5
Fiesta Bowl		1:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
LSU	Central Florida	2.9	1.5	3.0
Rose Bowl		5:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	Washington	6.9	7.1	6.6
Sugar Bowl		8:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia	Texas	14.9	14.3	17.1
Monday	January 7
National Championship Game		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bama or Okla.	Clem or N. Dame

For those that need to know–these ratings include the list of star players that are sitting out their bowl so as not to risk injury prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.  For example, Will Grier will not play for West Virginia, and that is enough to switch the Mountaineers from favorite to underdog.  This includes a list through Saturday, December 9.

NOTE:  The PiRate Ratings will commence with college basketball coverage as soon as all the major conference teams have played their tenth game.  Our rating is meaningless until every team has played 10 games.

Once again, we have combined all three of our sub-ratings into one more accurate rating.  We will issue spreads on weekend games through the conference tournaments and then spreads on the conference tournament games.

Additionally, starting in Mid-January, we will see the return of our Bracketology Gurus, who in two years of existence have gotten all 68 teams in the tournament one year and 67 of the 68 teams in the other.  We hand-picked 12 not-so-angry men that love college basketball and devote about the same amount of time in analyzing college basketball data as we analyze Major League Baseball.

 

 

What If… An NCAA Playoffs With No Committee Choices

Four teams are happy.  At least three teams are sad and feel slighted.  Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been invited to the playoffs.  Ohio State and Georgia were jilted.

There could be an argument for Oklahoma and Notre Dame over Ohio State and Georgia.  On the other hand, the folks that know best, those sharps in Nevada, would tell you that Georgia is the third best team in the nation.  Many computers will tell you that on December 29, 2018, Ohio State would be a better team than Oklahoma.

Imagine if specially appointed committees chose other things for the rest of us.  How would you like some insider former politicians explaining to you why Candidate A will be your President instead of Candidate B, even though all the political experts say that Candidate B would be the better Chief Excutive?

What is a special committee of psychologists chose who you will marry based on their criteria.  You may be in love with Michelle, but they may choose Kelly for you because she can balance a checkbook and you cannot?

What if the NFL had to choose just four teams for the playoffs.  This year, there are five really good teams in the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, and Texans.  Maybe the Bears and Chargers are also among the four best.  Do you want a 12-4 division winner not making the NFL Playoffs?

Of course you don’t.  And, the fandom of college football doesn’t buy for a minute that the Selection Committee knows what it’s doing.  Let’s see any of them pick games against the spread.  If they are true experts, then they will put up results that make Billy Walters look like an amateur.

The four team playoff did nothing to solve the problems of the two-team BCS National Championship Game it replaced.  In fact, this year, you could make an excellent argument that just putting Alabama against Clemson would be a better option than picking four out of six or seven deserving teams.

Any legitimate FBS Playoffs must allow every FBS team a chance to play their way into said playoffs.  There are 130 FBS teams.  There needs to be no more than 64 top level teams and preferably 32, but let’s not even talk about separating the Power 5 from the Group of 5.  Let’s talk about honest realignment into 7 conferences of 16 teams  and 1 conference of 18 teams.  In an even better world, two FBS teams would drop down to FCS, leaving 128 teams.

Divide each conference into two divisions.  Every team within a division will play each other during the regular season plus three teams in the other division.  In the 18-team conference, there will be just two teams against the other division.  The rhyme and reason to which schools a team in the other division would play would be made by the league with a rotating schedule so that a different three teams would be played every year, possibly using the NFL’s strategy of having the prior first place team in one division playing the prior first place team in the other division and so on down to the prior last place teams playing each other.

At the end of the season, the top team in each division of each conference would then make the 16-team playoff.  In the first round, the division winners of each conference would play to determine the conference champion.  This would leave eight teams for eight playoff spots.

These conference championship games could be played on neutral sites like the current Power Five Conference Championship Games, or on the home field of the team with the better conference record with set tiebreakers to determine the higher seed if there is a tie.

With the number down to eight, the next round could be played on home fields of the higher seeds as determined by criteria that all teams and all fans will know, just like home field is determined in the NFL.  At no time will a committee of so-called experts determine who is in these playoffs and who will be the home team.

After this second round of the playoffs, the final four can then be played like it is today.

This would give every team a chance to play for the national title, just like all 350 Division 1 basketball teams have a chance.  If you think this isn’t fair to Alabama or Clemson to have to play more games to become national champion, then you must absolutely hate March Madness when Sister Jean and her Loyola Ramblers or Butler or Wichita State can make a run to the Final Four.  You must hate the fact that a Gonzaga can advance from a small program into one of the top 10 in the nation.

If the entire FBS has a chance to win the national title, then all programs will have a chance to do what Gonzaga has done in basketball.

Another bonus could be in scheduling.  Instead of an SEC team like Georgia scheduling Austin Peay and Massachusetts, or Alabama scheduling The Citadel, Arkansas State, and Louisiana (the one in Lafayette and not Baton Rouge), the national schedule makers could schedule Alabama and Oklahoma, or Georgia and Michigan.

What about the FBS vs. FCS games?  Why not give each FBS team two preseason games against FCS teams, where the FBS team pays the FCS team a check just like they do now?  With all the extra billions coming into this new paradigm, the FBS teams could keep these FCS programs solvent without putting a 63-3 pasting on them in a regular season game.

Final Bowl Projections +Army-Navy

PiRate Ratings Final Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Tulane	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St. *	California
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	UAB	Appalachian St.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Middle Tennessee
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[San Diego St.]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	Southern Miss.
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo *	Florida Int’l. *
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Virginia Tech]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech *	Hawaii *
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[BYU]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Georgia Tech	[Western Michigan]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Auburn
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Pittsburgh	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington St.
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Wake Forest
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Stanford
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Utah
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Texas A&M
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Mississippi St.
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	LSU	Michigan
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington *
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Oklahoma
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
* Team has already accepted this bid

 

Saturday	December 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Navy	14.6	13.3	14.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0
2	Clemson	138.9	136.8	139.7	138.5
3	Georgia	128.9	126.7	130.3	128.6
4	Ohio St.	127.1	125.4	127.4	126.6
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.7	120.8	123.3	122.3
9	Oklahoma	121.8	120.6	121.8	121.4
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.4	114.9	116.6	116.0
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Central Florida	114.2	114.7	114.9	114.6
21	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
22	Stanford	114.7	112.6	114.9	114.1
23	Texas	114.0	112.4	113.2	113.2
24	N. Carolina St.	113.2	112.4	112.6	112.7
25	S. Carolina	113.1	111.9	113.0	112.7
26	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	Fresno St.	112.0	111.6	112.2	111.9
30	Iowa State	112.5	110.8	111.9	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.3	111.1	111.6	111.3
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.4	108.8	109.9	109.7
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
40	Pittsburgh	109.4	108.4	108.8	108.9
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.1	106.0	107.9	107.3
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.5	105.7	105.3	105.2
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Virginia Tech	104.6	103.9	104.2	104.2
54	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
55	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
68	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
69	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
70	Buffalo	99.0	100.8	100.0	99.9
71	Appalachian St.	98.3	100.1	99.7	99.4
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Northern Illinois	96.8	97.9	97.3	97.3
76	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
77	U A B	96.2	98.6	97.1	97.3
78	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
79	Middle Tennessee	95.9	97.8	96.9	96.9
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
85	Marshall	93.9	96.2	94.6	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.8	86.7	85.5	86.0
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.7	86.0	85.4	85.0
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
111	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
112	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
113	East Carolina	81.9	81.9	81.3	81.7
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	Liberty	80.9	80.4	80.9	80.7
118	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
119	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.2	114.7	114.9	114.6	8-0	12-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	81.9	81.9	81.3	81.7	1-7	3-9
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.5	105.7	105.3	105.2	5-3	8-5
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.7	95.3	94.7	94.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.9	136.8	139.7	138.5	8-0	13-0
N. Carolina St.	113.2	112.4	112.6	112.7	5-3	9-3
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.4	108.4	108.8	108.9	6-2	7-6
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.6	103.9	104.2	104.2	4-4	6-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.3	108.1	108.7	108.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.8	120.6	121.8	121.4	8-1	12-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.0	112.4	113.2	113.2	7-2	9-4
Iowa State	112.5	110.8	111.9	111.7	6-3	8-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.1	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	127.1	125.4	127.4	126.6	8-1	12-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.4	108.8	109.9	109.7	8-1	8-5
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	95.9	97.8	96.9	96.9	7-1	8-5
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Marshall	93.9	96.2	94.6	94.9	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	96.2	98.6	97.1	97.3	7-1	10-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.9	80.4	80.9	80.7	x	6-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.1	94.3	94.2	94.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.0	100.8	100.0	99.9	7-1	10-3
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.8	86.7	85.5	86.0	2-6	4-8
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.8	97.9	97.3	97.3	6-2	8-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.8	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.3	111.1	111.6	111.3	7-1	10-3
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.0	111.6	112.2	111.9	7-1	11-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.7	120.8	123.3	122.3	7-2	10-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.7	112.6	114.9	114.1	6-3	8-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.1	106.0	107.9	107.3	4-5	7-5
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.4	114.9	116.6	116.0	6-3	9-4
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.5	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.7	130.3	128.6	7-1	11-2
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	113.1	111.9	113.0	112.7	4-4	7-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0	8-0	13-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.3	100.1	99.7	99.4	7-1	10-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.7	86.0	85.4	85.0	5-3	7-6
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.7
2	B12	109.6	108.1	108.9	108.9
3	ACC	109.3	108.1	108.7	108.7
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.5	107.1
6	AAC	94.7	95.3	94.7	94.9
7	IND	94.1	94.3	94.2	94.2
8	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.8	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 29-December 3, 2018

Our Land Sharps have become the 1970’s Boston Red Sox.  Most years during this decade, the Red Sox had a division lead well into multiple seasons only to suffer a disappointing finish and close with a mediocre record or just short of winning the division.  In one year, they lost by a half-game that is obviously the shortest losing margin ever.  In one year, they lost in a one-game playoff.  In another year, they led the division into September only to finish in a second place tie 1 1/2 games out.  Yes, there was 1975, the year Baltimore’s great teams of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s began to fall apart, and a year before the Yankees began their fantastic run.  It was like 1967 all over again, as the rest of the pack fell apart in September.

Our five Land Sharps were in the equivalent of first place in the football season equivalent of the first 120 games.  All five sported winning records with fat returns on investment.  We wrote about how incredible this feat was–that five people at random would contribute to this site and all beat the spread by healthy margins through October.

Ah, but the Autumn winds were definitely Raiders to our Land Sharps’ bank accounts.  As we lampoon the month as “No Fave November, the underdogs began to have their days. Teams that were winning easily and covering deflated spreads began to feel the effects of the long grind.  Teams with nothing to lose began to play their future prospects, especially those that could still play multiple games and take a red shirt under the new rules.  Certain players began to feel the pressure of playing for a division title or stay in contention for the NCAA Playoffs.  Weather began to affect games and lower scores.  All in all, once November football began, the underdogs began covering the spread a tiny bit more than in previous weeks.  Some of this could also have been attributed to the public falling in love with teams that won big in September and October.

Well, it affected our Land Sharps.  Two of the five have performed like the 1977 Chicago Cubs.  If you don’t remember the 1977 Cubs, they were more than 20 games over .500 in the first half of the season and running away with the division, just like the 1969 Cubs.  However, the 1977 squad completely reversed in the second half, losing so many games that they ended the season 81-81, a full 21 games out of first place.

The other three Land Sharps have done a little better, but all five have given away some investment to the mighty Books in November.

We now come to Championship Week.  Except in a couple of cases where teams are playing last-minute replacement games to make up for the September hurricane, the teams playing this week are all top-rated squads.  There is no decisive underdog that can over-perform, and the players will be fighting tooth and nail to their last ounce of energy to win this week.  It is almost like September again, except there are more injuries and players playing while injured to some extent.  We think, or at least we hope the Land Sharps will close with a rush to reclaim their prior financial fame.

Ironically, as our Land Sharps have struggled in November, the PiRate Ratings have been on fire with back-to-back winning weeks.  We will probably jinx ourselves by revealing this, but we have been on a big hot streak with our NFL 10-point Teasers.  In fact, in the last two weeks, we are 7-0, and in the last five weeks, it is 20-7.  Our college picks belong in the sewer, but since we are here for entertainment purposes only, and we know about 65% of you reading this come here for college football, we will continue to issue both college and pro football selections.  Just please take our advice: NEVER wager real currency (or the stuff they pass off as real) on the selections you see made here.  You have some presents to buy for your relatives, so don’t end up having to give them that 10-year old fruitcake (can you really tell the difference between fresh and 10-years old?), because you cannot afford the Isotoner gloves after you lost all the money betting on one of our goofy parlays.

Because this week’s schedule featured a limited schedule, we allowed the Sharps to pick as few as one game up to a maximum of five games.  None chose the easy way out and selected just one or two games.  Our Sharps chose three, four, or five games.

1. Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 38-29-0  56.7%

Return on Investment: +9.1%

California +3 vs. Stanford

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

2. Buckeye Michelle

Season: 32-26-1  55.2%

Return on Investment: +5.8%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Ohio St. -14 vs. Northwestern

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

3. Stewed Meat

Season: 36-31-3  53.7%

Return on Investment: +2.7%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

 

4. Dean615

Season: 29-27-2  51.8%

Return on Investment: -1.2%

Texas +8 vs. Oklahoma

Georgia +13 1/2 vs. Alabama

Boise St. -2 1/2 vs. Fresno St.

UAB +1 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

 

5. Friday Dog 13

Season: 34-33-1  50.7%

Return on Investment: -3.4%

Buffalo -3 1/2 vs. Northern Illinois

Middle Tennessee -1 1/2 vs. UAB

Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis

Oklahoma -8 vs. Texas

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE

Moneyline Parlay	2 @ +183
Must Win	Must Lose
Central Florida	Memphis
Boise St.	Fresno St.

 

Moneyline Parlay	3 @ +191
Must Win	Must Lose
Buffalo	Northern Illinois
Virginia Tech	Marshall
Appalachian St.	Louisiana

 

NFL

10-Point Teaser	3-Game Parlay	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Dallas	New Orleans	3	New Orleans
Green Bay	Arizona	4	Green Bay
Baltimore	Atlanta	11	Atlanta
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Cincinnati	15	Cincinnati
L.A. Rams	Detroit	Pk	L.A. Rams
Kansas City	Oakland	4.5	Kansas City
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	N.Y. Jets	19	N.Y. Jets
New England	Minnesota	5.5	New England
Seattle	San Francisco	Pk	Seattle
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Washington	Philadelphia	3.5	Philadelphia
Kansas City	Oakland	24.5	Oakland
Chicago	N.Y. Giants	14.5	N.Y. Giants

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 14

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Friday	November 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mid-American Conference Championship Game @ Buffalo
Buffalo	Northern Illinois	5.9	6.9	7.0
Pac-12 Conference Championship Game @ Santa Clara, CA
Washington	Utah	5.4	4.5	5.4

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX
Oklahoma	Texas	7.2	7.4	7.6
Sun Belt Conference Championship Game @ Appy St.
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	17.8	17.6	18.0
Conference USA Championship Game @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee	UAB	2.3	2.0	2.8
American Athletic Conference Championship Game @ Central FL
Central Florida	Memphis	11.3	10.4	10.8
Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta
Alabama	Georgia	12.8	13.4	13.3
Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ Boise St.
Boise St.	Fresno St.	2.7	3.0	3.2
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC
Clemson	Pittsburgh	30.3	28.7	31.4
Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN
Ohio St.	Northwestern	15.5	15.4	16.0

Other Saturday Games

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Marshall	12.6	8.6	10.7
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	30.9	29.9	30.5
South Carolina	Akron	30.2	28.2	30.4
California	Stanford	-5.2	-5.0	-5.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Iowa St.	Drake	42.7
Liberty	Norfolk St.	26.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4
2	Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3
3	Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2
4	Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4
9	Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
21	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3
22	Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8
23	Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6
24	Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7
25	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
26	S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9
30	Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1
40	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
54	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
55	Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7
68	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
69	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
70	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
71	Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
76	Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3
77	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
78	U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9
79	Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5
85	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0
111	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
112	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
113	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
118	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
119	Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3	8-0	11-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0	1-7	3-8
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5	5-3	8-4
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3	8-0	12-0
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9	5-3	8-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1	6-2	7-5
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6	4-4	5-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0	8-1	11-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6	7-2	9-3
Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7	6-3	7-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	8-1	11-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1	8-1	8-4
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3	7-1	8-4
Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5	6-2	8-3
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9	7-1	9-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3	x	5-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7	7-1	10-2
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8	2-6	4-7
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6	6-2	7-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6	7-1	10-2
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7	7-1	10-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4	7-2	9-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8	5-3	7-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6	4-4	7-4
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3	6-3	9-3
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2	7-1	11-1
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4	4-4	6-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4	8-0	12-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8	7-1	9-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5	5-3	7-5
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
2	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
3	ACC	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top Group of 5

Central Florida will get the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid with a win over Memphis this week in the CUSA Championship Game.  If Memphis pulls off the upset, then UCF could still sneak in depending on how the loss looks.

Should UCF fall by a considerable margin because Mackenzie Milton is out for the season, then Boise State could move above the Golden Knights should the Broncos defeat Fresno State for the second time.

Should Fresno State beat Boise State, and Memphis beat Central Florida, then there could be some issues with the awarding of Bowl Bids.  Because Army doesn’t play Navy until December 8, and the announcement of the bowl bids is December 3, then Army could be excluded even if they blowout Navy by 50 points.  In this instance, Central Florida would probably still get the bid at 11-1.  Had Army defeated Duke at the beginning of the season, then at 11-1 with a loss only to Oklahoma (a game they came close to winning), then the Bowl Committee would have been in a heap of trouble, having to make alternate announcements pending what Army did versus Navy.

At 10-2, Army may still get a chance to play a Power 5 opponent in a bowl game.  Coach Jeff Monken would be a cinch to be offered a Power 5 job if he was not in the Paul Johnson mode.  Monken’s triple option offense is stronger than Georgia Tech’s this year, and his defense is considerably better.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

This week, you will see many of the bowl projection sites beginning to come to agreement on the top bowl games.  No doubt, almost every projection will have Alabama in the Cotton Bowl against either Oklahoma or Ohio State, while Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the Orange Bowl.

We thought about this for a long time Saturday night as Clemson and Alabama continued to dominate.  It looked so much like the Playoffs could be narrowed to two teams.  However, we thought about something.  Georgia is not going to lay over and die for the Crimson Tide to roll over.  The Bulldogs have a bad taste in their mouth from last year, where they could smell the National Championship Trophy in the second half of the title game, before some freshman named Tua came off the bench in the second half and looked like a combination of Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

We have noticed the teams that have given Alabama the most trouble through the Nick Saban years.  These teams have physical defenses and offenses with dual-threat quarterbacks that can act as another running back while still passing like stars.  Think about Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, or DeShaun Watson.  Even Chad Kelly had legs and could take off and run.  These are the teams that gave the Crimson Tide the most trouble in the last decade.

In the last few weeks, Alabama’s defense has been exposed by this read and react style of offense.  The Citadel’s triple option basically embarrassed Alabama in the first half.  Auburn’s spread option offense did some damage, but Jarrett Stidham does not have the legs to motor on the keeper like the QBs that have outscored Alabama to victory.

Here’s the thing.  Just like Alabama last year, Georgia has their not-so-secret weapon sitting on the bench waiting to be this year’s Tua Tagovailoa.  Freshman sensation Justin Fields possesses the same skills as Newton, Manziel, and Watson.  He has the potential to lead Georgia to an upset victory and totally throw the FBS Playoffs into disarray.

What if Georgia beat Alabama?  Assuming Clemson easily dismisses Pittsburgh, then Clemson would be number one, Georgia and Notre Dame would be number two and three in either order, and Alabama would fall to number four.  Ohio State and Oklahoma would be left out.  Forget Central Florida.  Even if Bama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State, and Texas beats Oklahoma, a Georgia team at 11-2 would get into the playoffs before UCF.

If Georgia were to upset Alabama, then four SEC teams would most likely make the NY6 bowls.  The Bulldogs and Tide would make the playoffs.  Florida would most likely make the Peach Bowl, and LSU would probably edge out Penn State and others for the Sugar Bowl.

There are 81 bowl eligible teams as of today.  Virginia Tech is a win over Marshall this weekend from becoming bowl eligible and making it  82.  Liberty can get to 6-6 with a win over Norfolk State, but they have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility as a transition team to FBS once 78 teams became bowl eligible.

If you are a fan of a Mountain West, Mid-American, or Sun Belt Conference team that is 6-6 today, you better cheer hard for Marshall to knock off Virginia Tech.  There are already three teams too many for the bowls, and if the Hokies win, they will jump over any of the Group of 5 teams hoping to land in a bowl.  Teams like Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Wyoming, and Louisiana-Monroe are holding out for a miracle.  At most one of these teams will make it to a bowl, and if Virginia Tech wins this weekend, all four are likely to have empty envelopes.  Eastern Michigan could still top Western Michigan, but the Broncos have a larger fan base than the Eagles.

What you see below is our look at the bowls should Georgia beat Alabama.  You can look at all the others on the Internet to see what it would look like if the status quo remains, but we believe you will want to read this alternative look.

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Memphis	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Tulane	[Army]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Wake Forest]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	TCU
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Western Michigan]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	[San Diego St.]
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Georgia Tech	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Washington St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Notre Dame	Georgia
Orange			Clemson	Alabama
Championship Game			Georgia	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 13

There are a bevy of interesting games with something on the line this week. Playoff games are on the line, bowl eligibility is on the line, and a few coaching jobs are on the line as Rivalry Week returns.
If you are a fan of a 5-6 team this week, you better hope that they win, because there is 0.01% chance or 1 in 10,000 that a bowl will have to take a team that is worse than 6-6. As of today, 71 teams are now bowl eligible. Three games this week will pit teams with identical 5-6 records, so three more are guaranteed to become bowl eligible, bringing the total to 74. There needs to be four more teams that will need one more win, and there are an additional 16 teams that have a chance to do so. The chances that 13 of these 16 teams lose their final game are less than the chances of the San Diego Padres facing the Chicago White Sox in the 2019 World Series.
Below, we take another look at each conference so you can determine which games you want to watch this week, or if you’d rather go shopping on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. You really should spend a few bucks with a locally owned small business this Saturday. We recommend our favorite jewelry artist, Marjorie Miller of Marjorie Miller Designs right here in the Music City at Beautiful Gifts for Her

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	-6.5	-6.0	-6.2
Miami (O)	Ball St.	17.9	17.6	20.4

 

Thursday	November 22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Air Force	Colorado St.	14.7	14.6	15.4
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	-17.4	-16.1	-18.1

 

Friday	November 23
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Akron	19.3	19.6	20.6
Cincinnati	East Carolina	17.8	19.3	18.3
Kent St.	Eastern Michigan	-14.7	-15.2	-15.4
Bowling Green	Buffalo	-13.3	-14.5	-14.3
Iowa	Nebraska	17.0	16.3	17.2
Kansas	Texas	-13.8	-13.8	-14.7
Missouri	Arkansas	24.8	25.6	26.8
South Alabama	Coastal Carolina	-0.3	-1.0	-0.6
Toledo	Central Michigan	19.6	18.8	19.5
South Florida	Central Florida	-21.0	-20.0	-21.5
Oregon St.	Oregon	-20.9	-22.8	-22.4
Memphis	Houston	3.1	3.9	3.7
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-0.6	-2.1	-1.0
West Virginia	Oklahoma	-1.0	-0.7	-1.4
Washington St.	Washington	-1.6	-0.4	-2.1

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	6.0	5.0	5.5
Connecticut	Temple	-30.1	-29.9	-31.6
Louisville	Kentucky	-21.4	-20.6	-22.4
Clemson	South Carolina	28.8	27.6	30.1
Michigan St.	Rutgers	29.0	28.0	29.5
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern	-12.2	-12.3	-12.7
Florida Int’l.	Marshall	-2.1	-1.1	-2.5
Boston College	Syracuse	7.6	6.8	8.0
Ohio St.	Michigan	-3.5	-4.2	-4.3
Northwestern	Illinois	24.9	23.8	26.2
Georgia	Georgia Tech	15.5	14.1	17.1
Duke	Wake Forest	11.7	11.5	12.8
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.3	13.3	14.3
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	-11.6	-11.6	-11.2
Louisiana Tech	Western Kentucky	12.4	11.6	12.4
Rice	Old Dominion	-13.1	-13.6	-14.0
UTEP	Southern Miss.	-13.3	-13.4	-14.0
Liberty	New Mexico St.	11.0	8.6	11.4
Boise St.	Utah St.	3.9	2.2	3.1
Utah	BYU	17.8	15.8	17.6
Appalachian St.	Troy	9.5	10.1	9.6
New Mexico	Wyoming	-8.5	-7.9	-9.0
Middle Tennessee	UAB	-2.1	-2.6	-1.8
California	Colorado	12.9	10.6	12.8
UCLA	Stanford	-11.9	-10.1	-13.9
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	4.3	3.6	4.8
TCU	Oklahoma St.	-2.2	-2.1	-3.7
Florida St.	Florida	-4.9	-4.5	-6.4
Penn St.	Maryland	16.1	14.9	16.3
Baylor	Texas Tech	-7.0	-7.3	-6.2
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	36.9	35.3	37.9
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	11.8	11.5	12.3
Texas A&M	LSU	-1.4	-1.5	-1.7
Indiana	Purdue	-6.6	-6.0	-6.4
Tulane	Navy	6.9	5.5	6.9
UL-Monroe	Louisiana	5.3	3.7	4.6
Tulsa	SMU	-2.9	-2.9	-2.3
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	20.3	19.1	19.9
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	-13.8	-12.8	-15.0
UTSA	North Texas	-22.5	-20.9	-22.5
USC	Notre Dame	-17.3	-16.7	-17.8
Alabama	Auburn	25.4	24.8	25.5
UNLV	Nevada	-13.3	-12.5	-13.4
San Diego St.	Hawaii	20.3	18.8	21.5
Arizona	Arizona St.	-7.2	-7.3	-6.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.0	139.3	142.6	141.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9
4	Georgia	127.8	125.3	129.0	127.3
5	Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9
6	Mississippi St.	122.5	120.7	123.6	122.3
7	Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9
8	Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8
9	Washington	120.6	118.4	120.9	119.9
10	Missouri	119.8	118.3	120.8	119.6
11	L S U	117.9	117.0	118.7	117.9
12	Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2
13	Auburn	117.1	116.0	118.6	117.2
14	West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8
15	Utah	116.9	115.5	117.5	116.7
16	Washington St.	117.0	116.0	116.8	116.6
17	Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4
18	Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3
19	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2
20	Stanford	114.8	112.5	115.0	114.1
21	Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0
22	Texas A&M	114.0	113.0	114.5	113.8
23	Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7
24	Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6
25	Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3
26	Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2
27	Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1
28	N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8
29	Florida	112.8	111.1	113.3	112.4
30	S. Carolina	112.0	110.8	111.5	111.4
31	Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3
32	Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3
33	Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1
34	Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9
35	Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8
36	Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6
37	Kentucky	110.5	109.2	110.3	110.0
38	Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9
39	Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8
40	Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5
41	Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3
42	Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2
43	Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9
44	California	108.3	106.2	108.3	107.6
45	Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1
46	U S C	106.5	104.9	105.4	105.6
47	Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1
48	T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6
49	Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2
50	Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8
51	Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7
52	Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6
53	Ole Miss	103.7	103.2	104.0	103.6
54	Vanderbilt	103.5	103.4	103.7	103.6
55	Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5
56	Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4
57	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
58	Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4
59	Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9
60	Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5
61	Arizona	101.8	100.4	102.1	101.4
62	Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3
63	BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1
64	Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1
65	Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0
66	Tennessee	100.8	101.3	100.4	100.8
67	N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9
68	Appalachian St.	98.6	100.6	100.2	99.8
69	U C L A	100.4	99.9	98.7	99.6
70	Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6
71	U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3
72	Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1
73	Colorado	98.4	98.6	98.5	98.5
74	Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1
75	Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0
76	N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7
77	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
78	Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2
79	San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0
80	Arkansas	98.0	95.6	97.0	96.9
81	Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8
82	Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4
83	Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2
84	Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1
85	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
86	Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4
87	Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6
88	SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4
89	Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4
90	Troy	91.5	93.0	93.0	92.5
91	Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3
92	South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0
94	Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.5	90.9
95	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.7	90.5	90.7
96	Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3
97	Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2
98	Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0
99	Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9
100	Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9
101	Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2
102	Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0
103	UL-Monroe	86.5	87.2	87.2	87.0
104	Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9
105	East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5
106	Oregon St.	86.2	84.2	85.2	85.2
107	New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5
108	Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0
109	Louisiana	82.7	85.0	84.1	83.9
110	Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3
111	W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7
112	Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5
113	U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3
116	Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8
117	Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7
118	Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5
119	Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3
120	Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0
121	San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0
122	Coastal Carolina	76.1	78.4	76.6	77.0
123	Georgia St.	76.2	77.9	76.3	76.8
124	Texas State	74.1	76.6	74.5	75.1
125	South Alabama	73.3	74.9	73.5	73.9
126	U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8
127	N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6
128	Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6
129	U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6
130	Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.3	114.2	7-0	10-0
Temple	103.9	104.1	104.5	104.2	6-1	7-4
Cincinnati	100.9	102.4	101.2	101.5	5-2	9-2
South Florida	91.5	92.9	91.3	91.9	3-4	7-4
East Carolina	85.6	85.6	85.4	85.5	1-6	3-7
Connecticut	71.8	72.2	70.9	71.6	0-7	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	102.8	104.1	103.7	103.5	4-3	7-4
Houston	102.7	103.2	102.9	102.9	5-2	8-3
SMU	94.8	94.4	94.0	94.4	4-3	5-6
Tulane	93.3	93.8	93.2	93.4	4-3	5-6
Tulsa	89.4	89.1	89.2	89.2	1-6	2-9
Navy	88.4	90.2	88.3	89.0	2-5	3-8
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	8-0	11-0
Boston College	114.8	112.6	114.5	114.0	4-3	7-4
N. Carolina St.	113.3	112.5	112.7	112.8	4-3	7-3
Syracuse	110.2	108.9	109.5	109.5	5-2	8-3
Florida St.	105.8	104.6	104.9	105.1	3-5	5-6
Wake Forest	102.5	100.7	100.7	101.3	2-5	5-6
Louisville	87.6	87.0	86.4	87.0	0-8	2-9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	114.3	112.7	113.6	113.6	3-4	6-5
Georgia Tech	113.7	112.7	113.3	113.3	5-3	7-4
Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3	3-4	7-4
Pittsburgh	110.8	110.2	110.6	110.6	6-1	7-4
Virginia	106.3	106.4	105.7	106.1	4-3	7-4
Virginia Tech	104.2	102.8	103.2	103.4	3-4	4-6
N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9	1-6	2-8
ACC Averages	109.7	108.4	109.1	109.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.4	120.0	121.1	120.8	7-1	10-1
West Virginia	117.4	116.3	116.7	116.8	6-2	8-2
Texas	114.9	113.5	114.6	114.3	6-2	8-3
Iowa State	113.8	112.2	113.4	113.1	5-3	6-4
Oklahoma St.	110.3	108.8	110.3	109.8	3-5	6-5
Texas Tech	108.8	107.3	107.6	107.9	3-5	5-6
T C U	105.6	104.2	104.1	104.6	3-5	5-6
Kansas St.	104.5	103.2	103.6	103.8	3-5	5-6
Baylor	101.8	100.1	101.3	101.1	3-5	5-6
Kansas	98.1	96.7	96.9	97.2	1-7	3-8
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	129.1	127.9	129.8	128.9	8-0	10-1
Ohio St.	122.6	120.6	122.4	121.9	7-1	10-1
Penn St.	117.4	114.9	116.9	116.4	5-3	8-3
Michigan St.	114.6	112.5	113.9	113.7	4-4	6-5
Maryland	104.3	103.0	103.6	103.6	3-5	5-6
Indiana	101.4	100.3	101.2	101.0	2-6	5-6
Rutgers	88.6	87.5	87.5	87.9	0-8	1-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	118.0	116.1	117.6	117.2	4-4	7-4
Northwestern	111.8	110.3	111.8	111.3	7-1	7-4
Wisconsin	112.1	109.7	111.4	111.1	5-3	7-4
Purdue	110.0	108.2	109.6	109.3	4-4	5-6
Nebraska	104.1	102.9	103.4	103.4	3-5	4-7
Minnesota	100.3	98.9	99.6	99.6	2-6	5-6
Illinois	88.5	87.9	87.2	87.9	2-6	4-7
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.3	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	3-4	5-6
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	5-2	7-3
Middle Tennessee	93.6	95.5	94.7	94.6	6-1	7-4
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.2	90.3	91.0	6-1	8-3
Old Dominion	82.9	86.1	82.8	84.0	2-5	4-7
W. Kentucky	81.6	84.4	82.0	82.7	1-6	2-9
Charlotte	79.2	81.7	80.0	80.3	3-4	4-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	98.2	100.6	99.0	99.3	7-0	9-2
N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7	4-3	8-3
Louisiana Tech	91.5	93.5	92.0	92.3	5-2	7-4
Southern Miss.	85.9	89.0	86.5	87.2	3-4	5-5
U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8	2-5	3-8
U T E P	70.6	73.7	70.6	71.6	1-6	1-10
Rice	67.8	70.5	66.8	68.4	0-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.9	124.6	126.2	125.9	x	11-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.6	101.3	101.4	101.1	x	6-5
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.6	79.9	80.8	80.5	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.1	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-8
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.3	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.0	104.2	103.9	103.7	5-2	7-4
Buffalo	98.0	100.0	99.3	99.1	6-1	9-2
Miami (O)	95.5	97.3	97.7	96.8	5-2	5-6
Akron	85.7	86.6	85.2	85.9	2-5	4-6
Bowling Green	82.1	83.0	82.5	82.5	2-5	3-8
Kent St.	78.7	79.7	78.5	79.0	1-6	2-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.6	99.0	97.6	98.1	4-3	6-5
Northern Illinois	97.5	98.5	97.9	98.0	6-1	7-4
Eastern Michigan	95.4	96.9	95.9	96.1	4-3	6-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.0	89.2	89.3	4-3	6-5
Central Michigan	80.5	82.6	80.7	81.3	0-7	1-10
Ball St.	80.1	82.2	79.8	80.7	3-4	4-7
MAC Averages	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	110.9	110.6	111.2	110.9	6-1	9-2
Utah St.	110.0	111.4	111.1	110.8	7-0	10-1
Air Force	95.9	96.5	96.3	96.2	2-5	4-7
Wyoming	95.4	95.7	95.3	95.4	3-4	5-6
New Mexico	84.4	85.3	83.7	84.5	1-6	3-8
Colorado St.	83.2	83.9	82.9	83.3	2-5	3-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	113.3	112.7	113.5	113.2	6-1	9-2
San Diego St.	96.8	96.9	97.3	97.0	4-3	7-4
Nevada	96.4	96.5	96.4	96.4	5-2	7-4
U N L V	81.6	82.5	81.5	81.9	1-6	3-8
Hawaii	80.5	82.1	79.7	80.8	4-3	7-5
San Jose St.	78.9	79.9	78.1	79.0	1-6	1-10
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference