The Atlantic Sun, Horizon League, and Patriot League Conference Tournaments begin play in four weeks with 29 additional conference tournament to follow. Here’s a look at each conference with the start dates and dates of their championship.
Conference Tournaments 2022
Begins
Ends
Teams in
Conference
Site
March
March
Bracket
America East
Higher Seed Home
5
12
8
American Athletic
Fort Worth, TX
10
13
11
Atlantic 10
Washington, DC
9
13
14
Atlantic Coast
Brooklyn
8
12
15
Atlantic Sun
Higher Seed Home
1
8
12
Big 12
Kansas City
9
12
10
Big East
New York
9
12
11
Big Sky
Boise, ID
9
12
11
Big South
Charlotte
2
6
12
Big Ten
Indianapolis
9
13
14
Big West
Henderson, NV
8
12
10
Colonial Athletic
Washington, DC
5
8
9
Conference USA
Frisco, TX
9
12
14
Horizon
See Footnote
1
8
12
Ivy League
Boston
12
13
4
Metro Atlantic
Atlantic City, NJ
8
12
11
Mid-American
Cleveland
10
12
8
Mideastern Athletic
Norfolk, VA
9
12
8
Missouri Valley
St. Louis
3
6
10
Mountain West
Las Vegas
6
9
11
Northeast
Higher Seed Home
2
8
9
Ohio Valley
Evansville, IN
2
5
8
Pac-12
Las Vegas
9
12
12
Patriot
Higher Seed Home
1
9
10
Southeastern
Tampa
9
13
14
Southern
Asheville, NC
4
7
10
Southland
Katy, TX
9
13
8
Southwestern Athletic
Birmingham
9
12
8
Summit
Sioux Falls, SD
5
8
8
Sun Belt
Pensacola, FL
3
7
12
West Coast
Las Vegas
3
8
10
Western Athletic
Las Vegas
8
12
9
Footnote : The opening two rounds played on higher seed home. Final 2 rounds will be played in Indianapolis
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 2, 2022
Process: The PiRate Ratings use a combination of NET Rankings, Computer Rankings, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, The Eye-Test, and unfortunately Politics to attempt to mimic what the NCAA Selection Committee does leading up to Selection Sunday.
Comments Off on PiRate Ratings Bracketology–January 7, 2022
Last week, we had a lot of difficulty isolating potential Money Line parlays where the numbers and our method meshed. In the end, we could only issue three selection parlays. So, guess what happened? We won big! How big? How about a Return on Investment of 96.8%? Yes, we almost doubled our imaginary weekly investment, and that ballooned our imaginary profit for the year to 10.63%. With more than $500 in imaginary profit to play with, we are loosening the reins a bit this week, because the third week in November historically has been the week with major upsets of teams thinking they have sure wins in the bag prior to playing their penultimate rival the following week. It isn’t exact as much as it used to be; USC and UCLA are playing this week, and both rivals have additional games. Some of the games we are choosing as big upsets do not necessarily fit this category, but in this case, Game 12 for these teams may be even more important than playing an arch-rival. We will explain each pick separately this week to show you why.
One of the weekly questions we receive at our email is “where do you get those payout odds?” First of all, it’s amazing how many of you email us when we don’t give out the email address. Sure, it can be found elsewhere, but to go to that much trouble to find it actually means a lot to us, and because of that, we try to answer every one of them without using a form response.
Here’s how we do it. We bookmark almost 2 dozen sports books, which include Las Vegas, Off shore, and those now legal in the various states that legalized sports betting and forced every radio and TV station to carry 30-40 ads per day, making it like it is election season 24/7/365. From these 2 dozen books, we then note which specific book has the best odds on each college football game. Contrary to what most people might do, where they look for the game and then wager due to their thought on the outcome, we look at the number and then wager based on the advantage we believe we gain by the number being off by a 5% or more. For example, if State U is listed at -225 vs. Tech, and we believe the Money Line should be -240, and there are 15 other books with the game between -240 and -250, we consider that a 6.25% advantage for us. Anything over 5% presents a possible choice.
Next, we then begin to combine these games into parlays that return a minimum of +120 odds. We rarely play a parlay at +120. We are usually more interested in parlays of +150 or better, where winning the parlay 30-40% of the time will produce a net profit. Of course, the key is that our own inside data must present the 5% or better advantage, not just one book over the other books.
Another question we receive often is, “which book has the best money line odds?” We cannot answer that question, because it changes from week to week. Just about every parlay we select in a given week comes from a different book than every other parlay for that week. This week, we are going with six different selections, using four different books. If you want to know which single book would be the best one and only book where you choose to open an account, we are not qualified to give you that answer, because the answer would change from week to week.
Let’s get started with this week’s selections.
Odds:
+270
Must Win
Opponent
Missouri
Florida
Dan Mullen has lost the locker room. After firing multiple coaches, the Gators’s defense quit on their coach, while at the same time, the new defensive coordinator was not ready against weak FCS Samford. Missouri has an offense capable of scoring 50 points against this Gator defense. The Tigers and Gators have some bad blood, and the head coaches even displayed animous last year. Both teams are now playing for a minor bowl game. Florida’s players could care less about a possible Birmingham or Gasparilla Bowl bid. Missouri’s players realize this is a good step forward for the future. At +270 and playing at home in a cold Columbia, Missouri, climate, where the temperature will be in the low 50’s with a wind chill in the 40’s, everything is in Missouri’s favor to pull off the upset and becoming bowl eligible.
Odds:
+160
Must Win
Opponent
Old Dominion
Middle Tennessee
This one does not fit the upset pattern listed above. It is a different theory entirely. Old Dominion head coach Ricky Rahne is accomplishing incredible things in 2021. ODU was one of the teams that did not play football in 2020. Their roster was decimated with just 7 of their starting 22 players from 2019 suiting up this year. The Monarchs looked more like Connecticut and Massachusetts when the season commenced in September. After a 1-6 start with the win over FCS Hampton, ODU looked like a potential 1-11 team. However, Rahne and his staff kept the team’s confidence level high and made adjustments on both sides of the ball, and the Monarchs have won three consecutive C-USA games to put themselves into contention to win out and become bowl eligible. Looking at just the last three weeks, ODU clearly looks superior to Middle Tennessee, and at +160, we’re willing to risk $100 in imaginary bucks that they will win their fourth game in a row and then beat Charlotte next week to become a bowl team.
Odds:
+360
Must Win
Opponent
SMU
Cincinnati
We couldn’t resist this one. Cincinnati has been sneaking by with 20 minutes of good football per game since winning at Notre Dame. That sufficed in narrow wins over weak Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, and South Florida teams. SMU can stake themselves to a three touchdown lead if the Bearcats don’t play a first 30 minutes like they did against the Irish. It is our belief that Cincinnati will lose a game before the end of the regular season, and they will have to beat SMU, East Carolina, and most likely Houston to get to 13-0. Playing like they have since Mid-October, we don’t see a path to 13-0. With the odds this high and with SMU capable of outscoring the Bearcats, we are willing to take a little more risk calling for an outright upset.
Odds:
+159.65
Must Win
Opponent
Northern Illinois
Buffalo
Houston
Memphis
Normally, we release this feature late on Wednesday or on Thursday morning. We had to move the release up to Wednesday at Midday because of the Northern Illinois-Buffalo game that plays tonight. The Huskies generated a big difference in the money line in our belief. We believe NIU should be in excess of -250 against the Bulls, so this became an automatic play. Combining NIU with Houston was done because this game had the best odds with the same book that had the best odds for NIU, and it moved the parlay to greater than +150. We think Houston might actually be the best G5 team at this point.
Odds:
+303.09
Must Win
Opponent
East Carolina
Navy
Clemson
Wake Forest
West Virginia
Texas
The +303.09 payout odds on this game is the perfect example of finding better numbers. If we played this same parlay at the same book from the previous parlay, the odds would have been around +275. That’s a difference of more than 9%, and that’s where winning edges come from.
All three of these games feature small favorites playing teams with specific liabilities that can be exploited by the favorite. East Carolina can exploit Navy’s weak pass defense while hiding a vulnerable pass defense that Navy cannot exploit. Clemson’s defense is strong enough to limit Wake Forest to 24-28 points, and the Demon Deacon defense gives up 30 points to opponents before kickoff. Even the mediocre CU offense will score 31 points against WFU. West Virginia playing at home in November is a tough out. Texas is a dying rose and without Bijan Robinson, we are not sure that the Longhorns could win on the road against Marshall at this point.
Odds:
+235
Must Win
Opponent
Colorado
Washington
Washington fired coach Jimmy Lake this week after losing to Arizona State. They play rival Washington State next week. The Huskies are just not talented overall, and their 4-6 record is well-deserved. Having to play on the road with little to no depth and at high altitude, we don’t expect UW to have their A-game this week. Colorado is 3-7 with a road game against Utah next week. This is senior day, and CU’s players know in the back of their heads that this is their chance for one more victory. This has the look of a 20-17 game either way, and at +235, we will take the home underdog to come out on top.
Remember that the PiRates never wager real money on these games, and we highly suggest you do not either. At this time of year, you need all the extra cash you can get, and losing a couple hundred of those greenbacks because of what you have read here is so not in the holiday spirit.
The Atlantic Coast Conference benefitted from Covid by gaining an extra playoff team last year. With Notre Dame choosing to become a full member for the season, and then with the Irish running the table, topping Clemson, while Clemson won all its remaining games, when the Tigers took the rematch in the ACC Championship Game, it opened the door for two ACC teams to make the playoffs.
Unfortunately for the league, Clemson was bombed by Ohio State and Notre Dame had no chance against Alabama in the semifinal round, as the two teams lost by a combined 38 points.
2021 should be back to normal for the league, but who knows if this will be the last time the 14 teams are together in one league, as of this writing, rumors are running rampant about a possible alliance between the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12, and other rumors have claimed that Clemson and Florida State would like to become members of the SEC.
At the ACC Preseason Meetings, the media voted their predictions for the 2021-2022 season.
Atlantic Division
(First-place votes in parenthesis)
1. Clemson – 1,028 (146)
2. NC State – 804 (1)
3. Boston College – 638
4. Florida State – 510
5. Wake Forest – 472
6. Louisville – 462
7. Syracuse – 202
Coastal Division
(First-place votes in parenthesis)
1. North Carolina – 979 (109)
2. Miami – 881 (28)
3. Virginia Tech – 582 (3)
4. Pitt – 576 (1)
5. Virginia – 540 (2)
6. Georgia Tech – 340 (4)
7. Duke – 218
Overall Champion
Clemson – 125
North Carolina – 16
Miami – 3
Virginia – 1
Georgia Tech – 1
NC State – 1
Clemson doesn’t rebuild; the Tigers reload with the next round of 4-star and 5-star talent. Losing once in a generation quarterback Trevor Lawrence is not a reloadable possibility. D.J. Ulagalelei is a brute force that could play tight end or linebacker. He just happens to have an accurate arm and the intelligence to know where to throw the ball. While he won’t put up Lawrence numbers, especially on the ground, he can lead Clemson back to the playoffs again. Finding capable receivers will be a tougher task, but tight end Braden Galloway gives CU a big target in the middle of the field.
Coach Dabo Swinney has 10 defensive starters coming back this year, and one or two might lose starting status to even better players. This should be the best defense in all of college football, led by one of the best defensive lines in many years. Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy could easily make the 1st team All-American team.
Clemson also rates highly in its kicking games, as punter Will Spiers carried a 44 yard average, and placekicker B.T. Potter nailed a couple of 50-yard plus field goals and hit on 18 of 23 overall.
Clemson gets its toughest task in the regular season right off the bat, when they face Georgia in Charlotte on September 4. If they get past their old rival, there’s no reason to think they cannot go undefeated until the Playoffs.
The race for second place in the Atlantic Division is wide open. Five of the remaining six teams in the division could finish in second place.
Wake Forest had an outstanding offense and weak defense last year going 4-4 in the regular season before losing to Wisconsin in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. An offense that scored 36 points per game and racked up 444 yards per game merely returns every starter this year and welcomes some fine new talent. Coach Dave Clawson has this team flying under the radar. Due to unfortunate injuries the last two seasons, there is loads of depth on board, and the Demon Deacons need only a slight improvement on the defensive side to contend for nine or ten wins.
North Carolina State didn’t play Clemson last year due to a Covid cancellation, and the Wolfpack didn’t play Notre Dame. Their 8-4 record was helped by playing Duke, Syracuse, and Florida State. This year, the Wolfpack have a better roster on both sides of the ball, and another 8-win season is quite possible, even with Clemson returning to the schedule.
Coach Dave Doeren must hope that quarterback Devin Leary can return from a season-ending leg injury and be the pre-injury passer he was in 2020, when he completed 60% of his passes for an average of 13.5 yards per completion. Leary has three talented receivers coming back that combined for 118 receptions for 1,744 yards and 17 touchdowns. Leary will have good protection as four offensive linemen starters are back.
The Wolfpack need to be a little stingier against the pass this year if they are to contend for second place in the Atlantic. After giving up more than 240 passing yards and 415 total yards in 2020, NC State will have new defensive backs in the starting 11.
Jeff Hafley came to Boston College after producing a couple of outstanding defenses at Ohio State. He took over a BC program that was falling back in the pack and in one year, he made the Eagles a tough out in the ACC. While BC went 5-5 in the league and 6-5 overall, they lost to North Carolina by four, Clemson by six, Notre Dame by 14, and Virginia by 11.
Hafley has a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball, and in year two in Chestnut Hill, we expect the Eagles to earn a bowl bid and be in the hunt for an eight-win season. By 2022, this team might be ready to compete for a division title.
Mike Norvell’s first season at Florida State would have been unforgettable if he hadn’t made headlines a couple of times. A 3-6 included just one impressive win. After losing to a Georgia Tech team still trying to transition to a pro-style offense from the triple option, the Seminoles were embarrassed by in-state rival Miami by six touchdowns. Additional lopsided losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville showed the fans just how far this program had fallen since Jimbo Fisher left for Texas A&M.
FSU may have benefitted the most from the Transfer Portal, as Norvell picks up several players that should become starters. The only thing in the way of a winning season this year may be the schedule, as the Seminoles play Notre Dame and Florida out of conference as well as North Carolina and Miami from the Coastal Division.
Louisville took a step back in Scott Satterfield’s second year after going 8-5 in 2019. He also antagonized fans and maybe the administration by lobbying for the South Carolina job that he did not get. This program is one to watch to see if Satterfield still owns the locker room. If not, UL may be headed for trouble. The Cardinals have lost some key players to transfer in the past couple of years too, so this may be the do or die season for Satterfield. If he can work the same magic he worked at Appy State, UL might turn things around, but it’s not a guarantee.
Syracuse went 10-3 in 2018, and Coach Dino Babers appeared to be the second coming of Mike Leach. Since then, the Orange are 6-17. Last year, the Air Raid offense never took off. Scoring just 17.8 points per game and totaling just 265 total yards per game, third weakest in the nation. The squad is much more experienced this year, but SU doesn’t look like a team capable of coming out of the basement.
The Coastal Division has a clear-cut favorite for the first time in many years, but it isn’t a slam dunk like the Atlantic Division.
North Carolina went 11-1 in 1997 and finished sixth in the polls in Coach Mack Brown’s last season during his first tenure in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels have not finished in the top ten since. However, they made it back to the top ten after starting the 2020 season 3-0. When a team with a great coach coming off a decent year returns one of the top five quarterbacks in the nation plus the entire offensive line, it is a good bet that this team will light up the scoreboard. UNC averaged 42 points per game last year. Is it possible, the Tar Heels could approach 50 points per game this year? It isn’t impossible, and if they do score 50 points per game, QB Sam Howell will be invited to New York in December. Only a defense that had some issues with the pass last year could prevent North Carolina from competing for the ACC Championship. Clemson should be able to outscore them in a potential conference championship game.
Miami of Florida will be there waiting to replace North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game if the Tar Heels’ defense isn’t up to the task. The Hurricanes’ defense will be strong enough to make Manny Diaz’s third team a big winner in Coral Gables. With quarterback D’Eriq King returning after proving to be a dual threat in the new spread offense, Miami should score a few more points per game than they did last year.
The Hurricanes get the optimum test to open the season, as they face defending national champion Alabama in Atlanta. Nick Saban won’t allow his team to overlook Miami, but even so, Miami might scare the Crimson Tide for a quarter or two.
After the top two in the Coastal, there is a major dropoff to the next tier. Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Pittsburgh are fairly evenly matched, and they are likely to split the games between them while losing to the two heavyweights.
Justin Fuente has been at Virginia Tech for five years and owns a 38-26 record in Blacksburg. He is on a very hot seat after going 5-6 last year. We will note that legendary coach Frank Beamer was 22-32-1 in his first five years.
Virginia Tech must rebuild on offense, which was the strongpoint of the season last year. The Hokies lost starting quarterback Hendon Hooker via the Transfer Portal and star running back Khalil Herbert to the NFL. It looks like 2021 will be the decisive year in Blacksburg for Fuente. If the Hokies go 6-6 or 7-5, it might not be enough for him to keep this job.
Virginia won the Coastal Division title in a small surprise in 2019, but Covid ruined the Cavaliers’ ability to play consistently last year, and they fell to 4-5 in the league. Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavs did enjoy a four-game winning streak in late October and November, including wins over North Carolina and Boston College.
Quarterback Brennan Armstrong also led the team in rushing last year; he played behind an inexperienced line and didn’t have a go-to running back last year. Armstrong will have to wait until November for his best target to be available. Wideout Lavel Davis Jr. is rehabbing from an ACL injury suffered in Spring practice. Davis averaged 25.8 yards per catch last year after scoring two touchdowns on four receptions in his college debut against Duke. A healthy Davis could be the difference in the final two games of the season against the other two teams in this tier in the Coastal Division.
Every year, the PiRate Ratings don’t seem to give Pat Narduzzi’s Pittsburgh Panthers a lot of respect. While the ratings are based on certain data, there must be something Narduzzi and his coaching staff do to produce a product that is greater than the sum of its parts. Once again, the Panthers’ are looking at a mediocre start to their season, but this year the first four games are all winnable, and three of the four are basically sure things. Playing Syracuse from the Atlantic, as well as the expected bottom tier teams in the Coastal gives Pitt a chance to win three or four conference games and make a small bowl.
Pitt plays an old style of football. Their defense leads the way, while their offense is pedestrian but makes fewer mistakes than a wide open offense. Last year, Pitt led the ACC in rushing yards allowed and finished second in total yards allowed, but offensively the Panthers finished near the bottom.
Things might be a bit different in 2021 as quarterback Kenny Pickett is a fifth year senior and has gotten better every year. Having star receiver Jordan Addison return with him means the Panthers should see improved numbers in the passing game. Unfortunately, Pitt lost their starting defensive ends from last year, two players that combined for 16 ½ sacks and 27 ½ tackles for loss. The Panthers still have a talented trio of starting linebackers, including Cam Bright, who had 8 ½ sacks last year.
Duke suffered through a miserable 2020 season that saw the Blue Devils go 1-9 in league play and 2-9 overall. 2021 doesn’t look to be very promising, as the Blue Devils lost more experience than any team in the league. The offense led the nation in turnovers, and even though the former quarterback responsible for 21 of those 39 has transferred out of the program, Duke might commit fewer turnovers this year but gain many fewer yards with a junior who threw 25 passes last year, mostly of the three and four yard variety. Additionally, the offensive line must be rebuilt, and rather than suffer through fumbles and interceptions, sacks might be the new liability this year.
Coach David Cutcliffe must also rebuild his defense, but there’s nowhere to go but up, after Duke finished last in the league in scoring defense. The only reason why the Blue Devils didn’t give up the most total yards is that opponents found it easy to run the ball against them. Duke finished dead last in rushing defense, so opponents didn’t throw the ball as often as they did against other teams.
Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the ACC:
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Clemson
120.9
121.5
124.0
122.2
Wake Forest
108.0
106.7
108.3
107.7
NC State
106.5
105.8
105.9
106.1
Boston College
104.7
105.3
105.7
105.2
Florida St.
103.4
103.6
103.5
103.5
Louisville
101.7
101.4
103.2
102.1
Syracuse
93.7
93.1
92.1
92.9
Coastal Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
North Carolina
116.4
116.7
119.9
117.7
Miami (Fla.)
117.1
116.1
117.7
116.9
Virginia Tech
106.4
104.9
104.7
105.3
Virginia
102.1
104.1
101.8
102.7
Pittsburgh
99.8
100.9
100.1
100.2
Georgia Tech
98.0
98.3
98.3
98.2
Duke
89.7
91.2
88.5
89.8
ACC Averages
104.9
105.0
105.3
105.0
The PiRate Ratings are designed to be effective for the next week’s slate of games and not to be used to look forward. Nevertheless, we predict the won-loss records just for fun.
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