The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 17, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 18-22, 2018

Last week was the first down week for our Land Sharps, as overall, they suffered their first cumulative loss of the season.  Overall, the five geniuses went an accumulated 11-17-1.  Dean615 did have his best record of the season, finishing 4-1, but Buckeye Michelle and Cal Gal Tiffany combined to go 1-6-1.

Don’t even ask about the PiRate Ratings.  This is our worst year making these selections since the 1990’s, and if it wasn’t for a rally on Sunday with three wins out of three, it would have been disastrous.  Of course, it isn’t really disastrous for us, because these picks are only for entertainment purposes, and thus no money was wagered.  Please take this advice and use our selections the same way.

The Land Sharps

Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 22-14-0  61.1%  18.3% ROI

Arizona St. +3 vs. Stanford

California -6.5 vs. Oregon St.

USC +7 vs. Utah

Wyoming +15.5 vs. Utah St.

Kentucky -11 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Buckeye Michelle

Season: 17-11-1  60.7%  16.9% ROI

Army -8 vs. Miami (O)

UTSA +18 vs. Southern Miss.

Wyoming +15.5 vs. Utah St.

Georgia Southern -12 vs. New Mexico St.

North Carolina St. +17 vs. Clemson

 

Dean 615

Season: 14-10-0  58.3%  12.5% ROI

Michigan St. +7.5 vs. Michigan

Purdue +13.5 vs. Ohio St.

LSU -6.5 vs. Mississippi St.

Penn St. -14 vs. Indiana

SMU +7.5 vs. Tulane

USC +7 vs. Utah

Navy +13 vs. Houston

 

Friday Dog 13

Season: 18-13-1  58.1%  11.6% ROI

Utah St. -14.5 vs. Wyoming

Ohio U -16.5 vs. Bowling Green

Central Florida -21 vs. East Carolina

Hawaii -3 vs. Nevada

LSU -6.5 vs. Mississippi St.

Iowa -9 vs. Maryland

Washington -15.5 vs. Colorado

 

Stewed Meat

Season: 19-19-0  50.0%  -5% ROI

Louisiana-Lafayette +25.5 vs. Appalachian St.

Eastern Michigan -3 vs. Ball St.

Western Michigan -4 vs. Central Michigan

Connecticut +34 vs. South Florida

Kentucky -11 vs. Vanderbilt

Marshall +3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Missouri -9 vs. Memphis

 

The PiRate Ratings Picks For October 18-22, 2018

College 10-point Teasers (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Air Force UNLV 1 Air Force
Michigan Michigan St. 17.5 Michigan St.
Toledo Buffalo 10 Buffalo

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Utah St. Wyoming 25.5 Wyoming
Clemson North Carolina St. 27 North Carolina St.
Florida St. Wake Forest 0.5 Florida St.

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Penn St. Indiana 0.5 Penn St.
Memphis Missouri 0.5 Missouri
Georgia Southern New Mexico St. 2.5 Georgia Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Mississippi St. LSU 3.5 LSU
Central Florida East Carolina 11 Central Florida
South Florida Connecticut 44 Connecticut

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Louisiana-Monroe Texas St. 0.5 Louisiana-Monroe
Kentucky Vanderbilt 1 Kentucky
Fresno St. New Mexico 4 Fresno St.

 

College 13-Point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Stanford Arizona St. 10.5 Arizona St.
TCU Oklahoma 5 Oklahoma
Miami (O) Army 5.5 Army
Maryland Iowa 3 Iowa

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina Syracuse 3.5 Syracuse
Oregon St. California 6.5 California
Oregon Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.
Utah USC 19.5 USC

 

College Money Line Parlays

4 Teams @ +254
Winner Loser
Army Miami (O)
Iowa Maryland
Duke Virginia
Western Michigan Central Michigan

 

2 Teams @ +693
Winner Loser
Minnesota Nebraska
USC Utah

 

NFL Picks vs. The Spread

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Denver Arizona 2 Arizona
Tampa Bay Cleveland 3 Cleveland
Philadelphia Carolina 5 Carolina
Indianapolis Buffalo 7.5 Buffalo
Baltimore New Orleans 2.5 New Orleans

 

NFL 10-Point Teasers (3 Games at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee L.A. Chargers 3.5 L.A. Chargers
Chicago New England 7 New England
Philadelphia Carolina 15 Carolina

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indianapolis Buffalo 17.5 Buffalo
Jacksonville Houston 15.5 Houston
San Francisco L.A. Rams 0.5 L.A. Rams

 

Team A Team B Total Pick
N.Y. Jets Minnesota 37 Over
Washington Dallas 31.5 Over
Philadelphia Carolina 35.5 Over

 

 

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October 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday October 18
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arizona St. Stanford -4.2 -2.8 -4.6
Arkansas St. Georgia St. 10.0 9.2 10.6

 

Friday October 19
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. Colorado St. 28.2 26.5 28.4
UNLV Air Force -9.6 -8.8 -9.4

 

Saturday October 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Cincinnati 6.7 5.1 7.0
Arkansas Tulsa 12.3 10.7 10.6
Navy Houston -8.6 -7.0 -9.4
Tulane SMU 5.0 5.8 5.7
Missouri Memphis 15.5 12.1 15.5
East Carolina Central Florida -29.1 -29.6 -30.0
South Florida Connecticut 27.9 29.6 29.4
Syracuse North Carolina 13.5 13.0 13.3
Duke Virginia 12.6 10.1 12.9
Clemson North Carolina St. 22.4 20.3 23.0
Florida St. Wake Forest 6.7 8.3 8.6
TCU Oklahoma -4.6 -4.3 -6.3
Texas Tech Kansas 13.3 13.4 13.9
Michigan St. Michigan -6.2 -7.0 -7.1
Wisconsin Illinois 26.9 24.6 27.3
Iowa Maryland 13.7 13.1 14.2
Rutgers Northwestern -23.4 -22.7 -25.4
Indiana Penn St. -20.4 -18.7 -21.2
Nebraska Minnesota -2.8 -3.4 -4.5
Purdue Ohio St. -14.2 -13.6 -14.7
Marshall Florida Atlantic -0.6 1.4 -0.2
Middle Tenneesee Charlotte 17.3 16.3 18.3
Louisiana Tech UTEP 25.8 25.2 27.9
Southern Miss. UTSA 9.8 8.5 9.7
Florida Int’l. Rice 26.4 27.8 29.1
UAB North Texas -2.2 -2.2 -2.6
Western Kentucky Old Dominion 1.1 0.8 2.6
Army Miami (O) 15.1 14.2 13.0
Massachusetts Coastal Carolina 10.2 9.6 10.7
New Mexico St. Georgia Southern -13.3 -13.1 -13.7
Toledo Buffalo 2.5 1.4 1.1
Ohio U Bowling Green 14.6 15.5 14.8
Ball St. Eastern Michigan -6.8 -5.7 -7.4
Central Michigan Western Michigan -4.8 -4.0 -5.4
Kent St. Akron -10.3 -10.6 -11.0
Wyoming Utah St. -10.6 -12.1 -12.7
New Mexico Fresno St. -19.5 -16.9 -19.7
San Diego St. San Jose St. 30.5 30.0 33.1
Hawaii Nevada -5.9 -3.8 -6.7
Washington Colorado 22.3 19.3 22.8
Oregon St. California -13.9 -13.8 -15.1
Washington St. Oregon -1.1 -2.0 -2.7
Utah USC 9.2 8.9 10.6
UCLA Arizona 1.9 3.5 -0.6
Ole Miss Auburn -7.9 -7.0 -9.2
Tennessee Alabama -38.1 -35.6 -40.2
LSU Mississippi St. 1.6 4.0 2.2
Kentucky Vanderbilt 17.3 15.9 17.3
Appalachian St. Louisiana 22.0 21.7 22.7
Louisina-Monroe Texas St. 13.6 10.9 14.2

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Liberty Idaho St. 4.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.8 140.1
2 Clemson 133.9 131.3 134.4 133.2
3 Georgia 127.8 124.7 128.6 127.0
4 Ohio St. 127.5 125.5 127.8 126.9
5 Michigan 125.5 124.2 125.9 125.2
6 Notre Dame 124.5 121.7 123.5 123.2
7 Washington 123.4 121.4 124.7 123.1
8 Penn St. 122.3 119.6 122.6 121.5
9 Oklahoma 119.7 118.3 120.0 119.3
10 Mississippi St. 119.9 117.4 120.6 119.3
11 L S U 118.6 118.4 119.8 118.9
12 Michigan St. 117.7 115.6 117.2 116.9
13 Utah 116.0 114.3 116.9 115.8
14 Miami 115.9 114.5 115.4 115.3
15 Iowa 116.0 114.0 115.7 115.2
16 Auburn 114.7 113.4 116.3 114.8
17 Wisconsin 115.8 113.1 115.2 114.7
18 Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7
19 Duke 115.3 113.2 114.9 114.5
20 Kentucky 114.9 113.8 114.8 114.5
21 Missouri 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 Florida 114.6 113.0 115.5 114.3
23 N. Carolina St. 114.5 113.9 114.4 114.3
24 Stanford 115.1 112.4 115.1 114.2
25 Oregon 113.7 113.6 114.6 114.0
26 Texas A&M 114.2 112.9 114.4 113.8
27 Boston College 114.4 111.8 113.8 113.4
28 Texas 113.5 112.1 113.0 112.8
29 Iowa State 112.8 111.2 112.6 112.2
30 Virginia Tech 112.2 111.2 111.8 111.7
31 West Virginia 112.4 111.4 111.5 111.7
32 S. Carolina 112.2 111.0 111.8 111.7
33 T C U 112.1 111.0 110.7 111.2
34 Georgia Tech 111.2 110.1 110.8 110.7
35 Fresno St. 110.9 109.9 111.2 110.7
36 Northwestern 110.7 109.0 110.6 110.1
37 Purdue 110.3 108.9 110.1 109.8
38 Boise St. 109.7 109.0 109.8 109.5
39 U S C 109.8 108.4 109.3 109.2
40 Syracuse 109.9 108.5 109.1 109.2
41 Washington St. 109.6 108.6 108.9 109.0
42 Utah St. 107.8 109.2 109.3 108.8
43 Texas Tech 109.5 108.2 108.4 108.7
44 Oklahoma St. 109.4 107.5 109.1 108.6
45 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 107.5 107.3
46 Florida St. 107.4 106.8 107.1 107.1
47 Army 104.9 105.6 105.1 105.2
48 Virginia 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.1
49 Colorado 104.0 105.1 104.9 104.7
50 Maryland 105.3 104.0 104.5 104.6
51 Ole Miss 103.8 103.4 104.1 103.7
52 Kansas St. 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
53 Houston 103.0 103.7 103.4 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.7 102.8 103.6 103.4
55 Memphis 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.1
56 California 103.8 101.3 103.2 102.8
57 San Diego St. 102.4 102.6 103.2 102.7
58 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.1 102.6
59 Baylor 103.0 101.2 102.7 102.3
60 Wake Forest 103.8 101.4 101.5 102.2
61 Appalachian St. 100.8 102.6 102.5 101.9
62 N. Texas 99.9 102.4 100.9 101.0
63 Pittsburgh 101.4 100.7 100.8 101.0
64 Vanderbilt 100.5 100.8 100.5 100.6
65 BYU 100.1 100.6 100.7 100.4
66 Arizona 100.6 98.8 100.7 100.0
67 Arkansas 100.3 97.8 99.2 99.1
68 Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.5 99.1
69 South Florida 98.4 100.4 98.5 99.1
70 N. Carolina 99.4 98.4 98.8 98.9
71 Cincinnati 98.2 99.8 98.6 98.8
72 Buffalo 97.7 99.8 98.8 98.8
73 U C L A 99.5 99.3 97.1 98.6
74 Indiana 98.9 97.9 98.4 98.4
75 Kansas 99.2 97.8 97.5 98.2
76 Florida Atlantic 97.2 97.9 97.8 97.6
77 Toledo 97.1 98.2 96.9 97.4
78 Nebraska 97.9 96.4 96.1 96.8
79 Louisiana Tech 94.6 97.1 96.1 95.9
80 U A B 94.6 97.1 95.3 95.7
81 Air Force 95.3 95.9 95.4 95.5
82 Northern Illinois 94.9 95.6 94.7 95.1
83 Louisville 95.2 95.2 94.4 94.9
84 Marshall 93.6 96.3 94.5 94.8
85 Tulane 94.4 94.8 94.2 94.5
86 Miami (O) 92.8 94.5 95.1 94.1
87 Eastern Michigan 93.5 94.8 94.0 94.1
88 Wyoming 94.3 94.1 93.6 94.0
89 Ohio U 92.7 93.9 93.2 93.3
90 Middle Tennessee 91.8 93.2 93.0 92.7
91 Western Michigan 91.8 93.4 92.7 92.7
92 Navy 91.4 93.6 91.0 92.0
93 Nevada 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.0
94 Troy 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.5
95 SMU 92.0 91.4 91.0 91.5
96 Akron 90.8 92.1 91.2 91.4
97 Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.6 90.4 91.2
98 Illinois 91.4 91.0 90.4 90.9
99 Tulsa 91.0 90.2 91.5 90.9
100 Georgia Southern 88.9 90.6 89.5 89.7
101 New Mexico 88.4 90.0 88.5 89.0
102 Arkansas St. 86.7 88.0 88.1 87.6
103 Central Michigan 85.0 87.4 85.3 85.9
104 Southern Miss. 84.4 87.4 85.0 85.6
105 Oregon St. 86.9 84.5 85.1 85.5
106 Ball St. 84.2 86.6 84.1 85.0
107 Colorado St. 84.5 85.4 84.4 84.8
108 Massachusetts 83.4 85.3 84.3 84.3
109 U N L V 83.2 84.6 83.5 83.8
110 Rutgers 84.8 83.7 82.8 83.8
111 Old Dominion 82.0 85.4 81.5 83.0
112 Louisiana 81.7 83.9 82.8 82.8
113 East Carolina 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.6
114 UL-Monroe 82.3 82.5 82.8 82.6
115 Hawaii 82.2 84.1 81.3 82.5
116 W. Kentucky 80.7 83.7 81.6 82.0
117 Liberty 81.3 80.5 81.5 81.1
118 Bowling Green 80.6 80.9 80.8 80.8
119 Georgia St. 79.2 81.2 80.0 80.1
120 U T S A 77.2 81.4 77.8 78.8
121 Kent St. 78.0 79.1 77.7 78.3
122 Charlotte 77.0 79.4 77.2 77.9
123 South Alabama 76.4 78.3 77.0 77.2
124 Coastal Carolina 75.7 78.2 76.1 76.7
125 San Jose St. 74.9 75.6 73.1 74.5
126 N. Mexico St. 73.1 75.0 73.3 73.8
127 Connecticut 73.5 73.8 72.1 73.1
128 Texas State 71.3 74.2 71.1 72.2
129 U T E P 71.3 74.4 70.7 72.1
130 Rice 66.2 68.7 64.3 66.4

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.7 3-0 6-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.1 102.6 3-0 4-3
South Florida 98.4 100.4 98.5 99.1 2-0 6-0
Cincinnati 98.2 99.8 98.6 98.8 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.6 0-3 2-4
Connecticut 73.5 73.8 72.1 73.1 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 103.0 103.7 103.4 103.4 2-0 5-1
Memphis 102.2 103.9 103.2 103.1 1-3 4-3
Tulane 94.4 94.8 94.2 94.5 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 91.0 92.0 1-2 2-4
SMU 92.0 91.4 91.0 91.5 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 91.0 90.2 91.5 90.9 0-3 1-5
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.9 131.3 134.4 133.2 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.5 113.9 114.4 114.3 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.4 111.8 113.8 113.4 2-1 5-2
Syracuse 109.9 108.5 109.1 109.2 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.4 106.8 107.1 107.1 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.8 101.4 101.5 102.2 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.2 95.2 94.4 94.9 0-4 2-5
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 115.9 114.5 115.4 115.3 2-1 5-2
Duke 115.3 113.2 114.9 114.5 1-1 5-1
Virginia Tech 112.2 111.2 111.8 111.7 3-0 4-2
Georgia Tech 111.2 110.1 110.8 110.7 1-3 3-4
Virginia 105.2 105.7 104.5 105.1 2-1 4-2
Pittsburgh 101.4 100.7 100.8 101.0 2-1 3-4
N. Carolina 99.4 98.4 98.8 98.9 1-2 1-4
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.7 118.3 120.0 119.3 2-1 5-1
Texas 113.5 112.1 113.0 112.8 4-0 6-1
Iowa State 112.8 111.2 112.6 112.2 2-2 3-3
West Virginia 112.4 111.4 111.5 111.7 3-1 5-1
T C U 112.1 111.0 110.7 111.2 1-2 3-3
Texas Tech 109.5 108.2 108.4 108.7 2-1 4-2
Oklahoma St. 109.4 107.5 109.1 108.6 1-3 4-3
Kansas St. 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 1-3 3-4
Baylor 103.0 101.2 102.7 102.3 2-2 4-3
Kansas 99.2 97.8 97.5 98.2 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 127.5 125.5 127.8 126.9 4-0 7-0
Michigan 125.5 124.2 125.9 125.2 4-0 6-1
Penn St. 122.3 119.6 122.6 121.5 1-2 4-2
Michigan St. 117.7 115.6 117.2 116.9 3-1 4-2
Maryland 105.3 104.0 104.5 104.6 2-1 4-2
Indiana 98.9 97.9 98.4 98.4 1-3 4-3
Rutgers 84.8 83.7 82.8 83.8 0-4 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.0 114.0 115.7 115.2 2-1 5-1
Wisconsin 115.8 113.1 115.2 114.7 2-1 4-2
Northwestern 110.7 109.0 110.6 110.1 3-1 3-3
Purdue 110.3 108.9 110.1 109.8 2-1 3-3
Minnesota 103.7 102.8 103.6 103.4 0-3 3-3
Nebraska 97.9 96.4 96.1 96.8 0-4 0-6
Illinois 91.4 91.0 90.4 90.9 1-2 3-3
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.6 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.2 97.9 97.8 97.6 1-1 3-3
Marshall 93.6 96.3 94.5 94.8 2-1 4-2
Middle Tennessee 91.8 93.2 93.0 92.7 2-1 3-3
Florida Int’l. 89.6 93.6 90.4 91.2 2-0 4-2
Old Dominion 82.0 85.4 81.5 83.0 0-4 1-6
W. Kentucky 80.7 83.7 81.6 82.0 0-2 1-5
Charlotte 77.0 79.4 77.2 77.9 2-1 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.9 102.4 100.9 101.0 2-1 6-1
Louisiana Tech 94.6 97.1 96.1 95.9 2-1 4-2
U A B 94.6 97.1 95.3 95.7 3-0 5-1
Southern Miss. 84.4 87.4 85.0 85.6 1-1 2-3
U T S A 77.2 81.4 77.8 78.8 2-1 3-4
U T E P 71.3 74.4 70.7 72.1 0-2 0-6
Rice 66.2 68.7 64.3 66.4 0-3 1-6
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.5 121.7 123.5 123.2 x 7-0
Army 104.9 105.6 105.1 105.2 x 4-2
BYU 100.1 100.6 100.7 100.4 x 4-3
Massachusetts 83.4 85.3 84.3 84.3 x 2-5
Liberty 81.3 80.5 81.5 81.1 x 3-3
N. Mexico St. 73.1 75.0 73.3 73.8 x 2-5
Indep. Averages 94.5 94.8 94.7 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 97.7 99.8 98.8 98.8 3-0 6-1
Miami (O) 92.8 94.5 95.1 94.1 3-1 3-4
Ohio U 92.7 93.9 93.2 93.3 1-1 3-3
Akron 90.8 92.1 91.2 91.4 0-2 2-3
Bowling Green 80.6 80.9 80.8 80.8 0-3 1-6
Kent St. 78.0 79.1 77.7 78.3 0-3 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.1 98.2 96.9 97.4 1-1 3-3
Northern Illinois 94.9 95.6 94.7 95.1 4-0 4-3
Eastern Michigan 93.5 94.8 94.0 94.1 1-3 3-4
Western Michigan 91.8 93.4 92.7 92.7 3-0 5-2
Central Michigan 85.0 87.4 85.3 85.9 0-3 1-6
Ball St. 84.2 86.6 84.1 85.0 2-1 3-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 109.7 109.0 109.8 109.5 2-1 4-2
Utah St. 107.8 109.2 109.3 108.8 2-0 5-1
Air Force 95.3 95.9 95.4 95.5 0-3 2-4
Wyoming 94.3 94.1 93.6 94.0 0-3 2-5
New Mexico 88.4 90.0 88.5 89.0 1-1 3-3
Colorado St. 84.5 85.4 84.4 84.8 2-1 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.9 109.9 111.2 110.7 2-0 5-1
San Diego St. 102.4 102.6 103.2 102.7 2-0 5-1
Nevada 92.1 91.9 92.0 92.0 1-2 3-4
U N L V 83.2 84.6 83.5 83.8 0-2 2-4
Hawaii 82.2 84.1 81.3 82.5 3-1 6-2
San Jose St. 74.9 75.6 73.1 74.5 0-3 0-6
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.4 121.4 124.7 123.1 3-1 5-2
Stanford 115.1 112.4 115.1 114.2 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.7 113.6 114.6 114.0 2-1 5-1
Washington St. 109.6 108.6 108.9 109.0 2-1 5-1
California 103.8 101.3 103.2 102.8 0-3 3-3
Oregon St. 86.9 84.5 85.1 85.5 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.0 114.3 116.9 115.8 2-2 4-2
U S C 109.8 108.4 109.3 109.2 3-1 4-2
Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 107.5 107.3 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.0 105.1 104.9 104.7 2-1 5-1
Arizona 100.6 98.8 100.7 100.0 2-2 3-4
U C L A 99.5 99.3 97.1 98.6 1-2 1-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 127.8 124.7 128.6 127.0 4-1 6-1
Kentucky 114.9 113.8 114.8 114.5 3-1 5-1
Missouri 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-3 3-3
Florida 114.6 113.0 115.5 114.3 4-1 6-1
S. Carolina 112.2 111.0 111.8 111.7 2-3 3-3
Vanderbilt 100.5 100.8 100.5 100.6 0-3 3-4
Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.5 99.1 1-2 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.8 140.1 4-0 7-0
Mississippi St. 119.9 117.4 120.6 119.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 118.6 118.4 119.8 118.9 3-1 6-1
Auburn 114.7 113.4 116.3 114.8 1-3 4-3
Texas A&M 114.2 112.9 114.4 113.8 3-1 5-2
Ole Miss 103.8 103.4 104.1 103.7 1-2 5-2
Arkansas 100.3 97.8 99.2 99.1 0-4 1-6
SEC Averages 114.0 112.7 114.4 113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 100.8 102.6 102.5 101.9 2-0 4-1
Troy 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.5 3-1 5-2
Georgia Southern 88.9 90.6 89.5 89.7 3-0 5-1
Georgia St. 79.2 81.2 80.0 80.1 1-1 2-4
Coastal Carolina 75.7 78.2 76.1 76.7 1-2 3-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 86.7 88.0 88.1 87.6 0-2 3-3
Louisiana 81.7 83.9 82.8 82.8 2-1 3-3
UL-Monroe 82.3 82.5 82.8 82.6 1-2 3-4
South Alabama 76.4 78.3 77.0 77.2 2-2 2-5
Texas State 71.3 74.2 71.1 72.2 0-3 1-5
Sun Belt Averages 83.4 85.1 84.2 84.2

 

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.0 112.7 114.4 113.7
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.1 107.6 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.5 94.8 94.7 94.7
8 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.4 85.1 84.2 84.2

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: We revised these early Monday morning.  Multiple sites have listed different bowl tie-ins.  We visited each bowl’s home page to verify the correct alignments and made the appropriate changes.

Additionally, our bowl projections differ from most others because we make assumptions on future games.  For instance, all other major bowl projections have Ohio State in the Playoff today.  We believe the Buckeyes are going to lose a game before the end of the regular season and fall to 5th or 6th in the final poll.  Central Florida is listed as the top Group of 5 team and placed in a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but we believe they will lose and fall behind others.  Currently, we forecast Fresno State to end up in this spot.

Here are the revised bowl & playoff projections.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Utah
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana-Monroe
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Tulane Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Cincinnati [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Buffalo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Southern Miss.]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Minnesota Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Toledo] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Louisiana]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Nevada Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida North Carolina St.
Military AAC ACC Temple [Colorado]
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Stanford
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Auburn
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Purdue Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Michigan Fresno St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Texas
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

There Is Really Only One Team That Can Beat Alabama

The Alabama Crimson Tide currently sits almost one touchdown ahead of the number two Clemson Tigers, but can this Clemson team defeat Alabama?  The answer to that question is probably not, with a qualification.  If Tua Tagovailoa’s knee injury issues were to force him to miss games, then maybe Clemson or Ohio State could make a close game of it.  However, when Tua is healthy, there is only one team that can beat the top-ranked Tide.  That team is: Alabama.

Unless Alabama has a total meltdown, the Tide should win every game by double digits.  Let’s take a look at the moment at Alabama through seven games compared to some great teams from the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present) that ran the table and won the national championship.

Team Year PPG Opp Rush Opp Pass Opp Yds Opp
Alabama 2018 54 15 217 127 350 190 567 317
Alabama 2009 32 12 215 78 188 166 403 244
Texas 2005 50 16 275 131 237 172 512 303
USC 2004 38 13 177 79 272 200 449 279
Miami (Fla.) 2001 43 10 205 133 250 138 455 271
Oklahoma 2000 37 15 135 108 295 171 430 279
Florida St. 1999 38 17 124 99 303 206 427 305
Nebraska 1997 47 17 393 73 121 184 514 257
Nebraska 1995 53 15 400 78 157 216 557 294
Alabama 1992 28 9 209 55 154 139 363 194
Miami (Fla.) 1991 32 8 146 132 295 157 441 289
Washington 1991 41 10 232 67 240 170 472 237
Alabama 1979 32 6 345 102 84 78 429 180
Notre Dame 1973 35 8 350 82 111 119 461 201
USC 1972 39 11 247 110 185 132 432 242
Nebraska 1971 39 8 253 98 178 112 431 210
Texas 1969 40 11 363 90 109 136 472 226
Mystery Team 46 9 319 77 189 185 508 262

I’ll mention that mystery team in a moment.  Let’s look at Alabama’s stats so far.  The Crimson Tide is averaging 54 points per game and giving up 15.  For the most part, the starters have rarely played in the fourth quarter of any game and some have not played in the second half.

This Tide team is unstoppable on offense, as they can still ram through defenses and break through for large rushing gains, but now they have the best quarterback in the nation.  Tagovailoa is drawing comparisons to Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.  For older folks, he’s like a combination of Daryle Lamonica and Tobin Rote.  In a day when few teams average more than 10-11 yards per completion, Tagovailoa is averaging more than 14 yards per attempt!

The only knock against Alabama so far this year is that they have played a rather weak schedule.  However, the Tide quickly dismissed the good teams they have faced.  They beat Texas A&M by more than three touchdowns, while Clemson had to sneak by the Aggies.  They beat Ole Miss by 55 and Missouri by 29.

The Crimson Tide still has games to play against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, but we don’t expect any of the three to beat ‘Bama.  LSU will be the toughest test prior to the SEC Championship Game.  With Georgia losing to LSU, and with Florida and Kentucky still on the Bulldogs’ schedule, there is no guarantee that Georgia will even make the SEC Championship Game.

If Alabama runs the table, they will play the #4 seed in the Semifinal Game of the Playoffs.  As of today, it looks like the #4 seed will be a one-loss team, from Among Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, and remotely Washington St. or Oregon.  None of these teams will challenge the Tide.

The Championship Game might pit Clemson against ‘Bama again.  It could be Alabama and Ohio State, but we have a suspicion that the Buckeyes will lose one game this year, either to Purdue this weekend, Michigan State, or Michigan.  There really isn’t a team other than maybe Clemson that can compete with Alabama this year.  For the Crimson Tide to lose, they will have to beat themselves.

Now to the Mystery Team  

The Mystery Team had drawn comparisons to the great Army teams with Glenn Davis and Felix Blanchard.  They had been compared to the great Oklahoma team that won 47 games in a row.  In fact, the Mystery Team had won 22 games in a row

What you are looking at is an undefeated team with the closest win being 27 points.  This Mystery Team beat the #10 team by four touchdowns and the #19 team by 33 points.

But, there’s a catch.  This team was undefeated with these gaudy stats with one game left to play.  They only needed to win their final game of the year against a team they had defeated by more than five touchdowns the year before.

This team was called by its coach, a Hall of Famer with prior national titles as his best ever.  Did this team beat itself?  No, not exactly.  The prior year’s team cost this Mystery Team its for sure national championship.

This team is Ohio State in 1969.  Through eight games, the Buckeyes did what Alabama is doing this year.  They never trailed for even one second of the season going into the final game against Michigan.  A 41-14 win over Washington in Seattle was their closest game to date, and they entered this game as a 17-point favorite over the 7-2 and 12th-ranked Wolverines at the Big House.

The year before Ohio State beat Michigan 50-14.  The Buckeyes had tried for two when they were up 43-14 and missed, and then they added another touchdown late to hit the half-century mark.  For the next season, first year Michigan coach Bo Schembechler made sure his returning players remembered that game.  The number 50 was plastered everywhere a Wolverine football player could find himself in the athletic facility.  Practice uniforms had the number 50.

Ohio State began the 1969 game like they had the previous eight games.  They returned the opening kick past the 40 yard line, and then on the first scrimmage play, quarterback Rex Kern scrambled for 25 yards to put the Buckeyes close to the Michigan 30.  Bruising fullback Jim Otis carried wide on a sweep, then off-tackle, then up the middle twice in a row to give Ohio State a first down at the Michigan 20.  Otis appeared to make it a first and goal a few plays later, but OSU was called for a false start.  On 4th and short, Michigan made the first big play of the drive stopping the Scarlet and Gray inches short of a first down.

Michigan could not do anything with the ball and punted after three plays.  Ohio State roared right back.  Michigan punted, and Ohio State punt returner Larry Zelina returned it almost back to where Michigan had punted.  It was a quick and easy five play drive for a touchdown, and the Buckeyes led 6-0.  PATs were not automatic in those days, and the OSU extra point was missed.

At this point, it looked like the blowout was on.  However, the Michigan players were not about to let Ohio State do to them in Ann Arbor what had happened a year earlier in Columbus.  Michigan drove the ball on a 10-play drive for a touchdown, and when behemoth kicker Frank Titas hit the PAT, Ohio State trailed for the first time all season, even if it was just 7-6.

Ohio State did what Woody Hayes’ teams did best.  On the next possession, they drove almost 75 yards in 10 plays to retake the lead on a pass from Kern to end Jan White.  On a 2-point try, Kern was sacked before he could pass the ball, and Ohio State led 12-7.  The Buckeyes would not score another point in 1969.

Michigan came alive and quickly drove for the go-ahead score to take a 14-12 lead.  Before the half was done, the Wolverines would put the game away.  After Ohio State was forced to punt, Barry Pierson almost returned it to the house, being knocked down just short of the goal.  Michigan scored a couple of plays later and led 21-12 near the middle of the quarter.  Following a nice Ohio State drive that stalled, Coach Hayes elected to try to make a 53-yard field goal, as in those days, a missed field goal that did not get returned was a touchback.  The kick was way short, and Michigan had the ball once again.  A nice drive could consume the clock, but Schembechler was interested in more.

Michigan calmly killed the clock, but they did so by driving 80 yard for the apparent killing touchdown.  The score was overturned by a penalty.  A short field goal made it 24-12 Wolverines, and that’s how the score stayed the rest of the day.

In the second half, Pierson, the punt returner that set up the go ahead touchdown was the leading receiver for Ohio State.  He intercepted three Buckeye passes, as quarterbacks Kern and Ron Maciejowski threw a combined six picks.  Ohio State didn’t threaten to score any more touchdowns, missing a couple of long field goals.  Michigan played conservatively letting the Buckeyes make mistakes, and the greatest Ohio State team in modern history finished the season 8-1.

Here’s the thing.  In this era, the Big Ten was not bowl friendly.  The champion of the league earned a Rose Bowl bid, but there was a rule that a team could not make consecutive trips to the Rose Bowl.  Had Ohio State beaten Michigan, they would have been 9-0 with no bowl game.  Michigan, at 7-3, would have been picked to go in their place.  However, Schembechler had told his team that if they lost to the Buckeyes, he would decline the Rose Bowl bid.  Third place Purdue would have faced USC instead.

Michigan did win, and the Wolverines headed to Pasadena to play a 9-0-1 USC team that had tied Notre Dame.  On the night before the game, Schembechler suffered a heart attack and did not coach in the game.  Assistant Jim Young became acting head coach, and Michigan played lethargically, losing to USC 10-3.  It was the first time Michigan had ever lost a bowl game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:06 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday October 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Appalachian St. -6.3 -6.6 -6.1

 

Thursday October 11
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Texas Tech 7.5 7.8 7.6
Texas St. Georgia Southern -17.3 -15.9 -18.5

 

Friday October 12
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulsa South Florida -4.8 -8.0 -4.8
Utah Arizona 15.0 14.9 15.3
San Diego St. Air Force 10.9 10.7 12.2

 

Saturday October 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Louisville 22.4 20.0 23.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -9.9 -8.1 -10.5
Eastern Michigan Toledo -1.7 -1.5 -0.8
South Carolina Texas A&M 1.7 2.0 1.5
Coastal Carolina Louisiana-Monroe 2.3 5.2 2.6
Illinois Purdue -11.6 -10.2 -12.1
Central Michigan Ball St. 3.8 4.1 4.6
Georgia Tech Duke 1.4 2.7 1.7
Maryland Rutgers 22.8 22.3 23.8
North Carolina Virginia Tech -11.1 -11.3 -11.7
Charlotte Western Kentucky -7.0 -8.1 -8.3
East Carolina Houston -16.9 -17.7 -17.5
Buffalo Akron 8.0 8.9 8.6
Old Dominion Marshall -6.6 -5.5 -7.8
Florida Int’l. Middle Tennessee 0.6 3.4 0.2
Miami (O) Kent St. 15.2 15.8 18.0
Utah St. UNLV 23.9 23.7 24.8
Colorado St. New Mexico -1.5 -2.2 -1.7
Liberty Troy -9.3 -11.8 -10.8
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 28.3 26.1 28.3
USC Colorado 8.6 5.4 6.6
San Jose St. Army -21.7 -21.5 -23.7
Oregon Washington -7.7 -5.5 -8.5
Northern Illinois Ohio U 5.3 5.0 4.7
UTSA Louisiana Tech -10.9 -8.8 -11.3
Bowling Green Western Michigan -9.1 -10.9 -10.2
Arkansas Ole Miss -0.3 -2.3 -1.5
Michigan Wisconsin 9.6 10.9 10.3
Ohio St. Minnesota 29.2 27.9 30.0
Navy Temple -8.5 -6.3 -10.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -0.5 -1.2 -0.2
North Texas Southern Miss. 17.8 17.1 17.9
Northwestern Nebraska 20.1 19.8 22.3
Indiana Iowa -11.4 -10.1 -10.9
Memphis Central Florida -10.2 -8.5 -9.9
Auburn Tennessee 24.5 22.7 26.8
Texas Baylor 13.3 13.9 13.4
Alabama Missouri 28.3 27.8 28.9
Vanderbilt Florida -11.7 -9.6 -12.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. -5.7 -5.4 -6.8
Rice UAB -20.8 -20.6 -23.2
LSU Georgia -13.1 -9.8 -13.1
Louisiana New Mexico St. 5.7 5.8 6.3
Penn St. Michigan St. 10.3 9.7 11.4
BYU Hawaii 21.5 19.7 23.0
California UCLA 13.8 11.5 15.6
Fresno St. Wyoming 19.1 18.1 20.1
Nevada Boise St. -17.5 -17.1 -18.3

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
South Alabama Alabama St. 29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9
2 Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9
3 Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2
5 Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5
6 Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7
7 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
8 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
9 Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0
10 Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0
11 Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3
12 Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5
13 Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1
14 Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6
15 Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3
16 L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2
17 Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6
18 Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
19 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
20 N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0
21 West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9
22 Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9
23 Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8
24 Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5
25 Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5
26 Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4
27 Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3
28 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
29 Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2
30 Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7
31 T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4
32 Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3
33 Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1
34 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0
35 Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3
36 Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1
37 Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4
38 Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3
39 Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9
40 U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8
41 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
42 Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8
43 Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0
45 Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0
46 Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8
47 California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3
48 Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0
49 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
50 Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0
51 Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6
52 San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2
53 Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2
54 Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8
55 Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8
56 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7
57 Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1
58 Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1
59 Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9
60 Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8
61 Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7
62 N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6
63 Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5
64 BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2
65 Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0
66 Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7
67 South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4
68 Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4
69 Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2
70 Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5
71 N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4
72 Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9
73 Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8
74 Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7
75 Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4
76 Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6
77 U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2
79 Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0
80 Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7
81 Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6
82 Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3
83 Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2
85 Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9
86 Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8
87 Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6
88 U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3
89 Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2
90 Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1
91 Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0
92 Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0
93 Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7
94 Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3
95 Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0
96 SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3
97 Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1
98 Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8
99 Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7
100 Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6
101 Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1
102 New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3
103 Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4
104 Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0
105 U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8
106 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6
107 Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2
108 Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8
109 Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5
110 Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5
111 Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1
112 Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0
113 East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8
114 Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8
115 U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9
116 Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4
117 Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0
118 Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
119 Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9
120 Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5
121 UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2
122 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1
123 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0
124 N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0
125 San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0
126 Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3
127 Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9
128 U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9
129 Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1
130 Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3 2-0 5-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7 2-0 3-3
South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4 1-0 5-0
Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8 0-2 2-3
Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 1-0 4-1
Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8 1-2 4-2
Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0 1-1 2-3
SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6 0-2 1-4
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5 1-1 4-2
Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7 0-3 2-4
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5 2-0 5-1
Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2 0-1 4-1
Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7 2-0 3-2
Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1 1-2 3-3
Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0 1-1 3-2
Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0 2-1 3-3
N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4 1-1 1-3
ACC Averages 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0 2-1 5-1
West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9 3-0 5-0
Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3 3-0 5-1
T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4 1-1 3-2
Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1 1-2 4-2
Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3 1-2 2-3
Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1 0-3 2-4
Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8 2-1 4-2
Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2 3-0 6-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 3-0 5-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6 2-1 3-2
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-1 3-2
Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7 1-2 4-2
Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1 2-0 4-1
Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5 1-1 4-1
Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3 2-1 2-3
Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1 0-2 3-2
Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6 0-3 0-5
Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9 1-1 3-2
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4 1-1 3-3
Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6 1-1 3-2
Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7 2-0 3-2
Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1 1-0 3-2
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5 0-3 1-5
Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6 1-1 5-1
Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2 1-1 3-2
U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3 2-0 4-1
Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0 1-0 2-2
U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9 2-0 3-3
U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9 0-2 0-6
Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3 0-2 1-5
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5 x 6-0
Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8 x 3-2
BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2 x 3-3
Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1 x 2-5
Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5 x 2-3
N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0 x 2-4
Independents Averages 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8 2-0 5-1
Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2 1-0 3-2
Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0 2-1 2-4
Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3 0-1 2-2
Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4 0-2 1-5
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1 0-2 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7 1-0 3-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2 3-0 3-3
Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8 0-3 2-4
Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0 2-0 4-2
Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4 0-2 1-5
Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8 1-1 2-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3 1-1 3-2
Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0 1-0 4-1
Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0 0-2 2-3
Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3 0-2 2-4
New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3 1-0 3-2
Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4 1-0 4-1
San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2 1-0 4-1
Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7 1-1 3-3
U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8 0-1 2-3
Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8 3-0 6-1
San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0 0-2 0-5
MWC Averages 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7 3-0 5-1
Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 2-1 5-1
California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3 0-2 3-2
Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8 1-2 3-2
U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0 2-0 5-0
Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7 2-1 3-3
U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6 0-2 0-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2 4-0 6-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6 0-2 3-2
Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 3-1 5-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-1 5-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0 2-2 3-2
Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5 0-2 3-3
Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9 3-0 6-0
Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0 1-2 4-2
Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2 2-1 5-1
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 2-1 4-2
Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6 0-2 4-2
Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2 0-3 1-5
SEC Averages 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1 3-0 5-1
Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8 2-0 4-1
Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0 1-1 3-2
Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1 0-1 3-2
Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9 1-1 2-3
UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2 0-2 2-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0 1-2 1-5
Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1 0-2 1-4
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
2 ACC 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
8 MWC 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Cincinnati
4 Fresno St.
5 San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Atlantic Louisiana
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan UAB
Frisco AAC MAC [BYU] Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC [Army] [Marshall]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Utah]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona St.] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Utah St.] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Nevada]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Baylor Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Ohio St. Clemson
Orange Alabama Notre Dame
National Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

October 3, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 4-8, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:44 am

Another mediocre week by the PiRate Rating selections was offset by another spectacular week by three of our five Land Sharps.

Last week, our official picks went 4-7, to bring the total to date to 22-23-1.  This took our minor profit for the season to a minor loss of 5.7% Return on Investment.  We will include some Money Line parlays that give us better than +150 odds this week in an attempt to get back into the black.  In the past, we have done well when playing 4-game parlays that give us better than +150 odds, but we tend to cash in big on these parlays in November.  Hopefully, October will be nice to us.

As for the Land Sharps, Buckeye Michelle, Friday Dog 13, and Cal Gal Tiffany continue to draw the ire of the kind people in the State of Nevada.  If they keep up this streak, they will not be allowed to patronize the books (Note–every pick on this site is done strictly for entertainment purposes only, so they really have no connection with any books).

Dean615 and Stewed Meat have treaded water so far, as both as exactly .500 in their picks.  In Stewed’s defense, these are this Land Sharp’s “B” picks.  Stewed is a real professional, and Stewed A’s picks last week (college and NFL) went 8-3 including a Parlay win that returned 6 to 1 odds for a big profit.

This week, our Land Sharps have picked between 5 and 9 games.  Because we try not to do the same thing, and we include the NFL in our official picks, we are going with 9 selections–3 vs. spreads, 4, 10-point teasers, and 2 Money Line Parlays.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks 

Margins

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Akron Miami (O) 3 Akron
Baltimore Cleveland 3 Baltimore
San Francisco Arizona 3.5 San Francisco

10-Point Teasers (3-team parlays)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Louisville Georgia Tech 6.5 Georgia Tech
Boston College North Carolina St. 5.5 North Carolina St.
LSU Florida 13 Florida

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Alabama Arkansas 24 Alabama
Clemson Wake Forest 7.5 Clemson
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 2.5 Miami (Fla.)

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
South Florida Massachusetts 4 South Florida
Georgia Southern South Alabama 3.5 Georgia Southern
Ole Miss Louisiana-Monroe 2.5 Ole Miss

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Central Florida SMU 14 Central Florida
Washington St. Oregon St. 6.5 Washington St.
Fresno St. Nevada 2 Fresno St.

 

Money Line Parlays

4 Teams at +168

Winner Loser
North Carolina St. Boston College
Troy Georgia St.
UNLV New Mexico
Miami (Fla.) Florida St.

 

4 Teams at +174

Winner Loser
Liberty New Mexico St.
South Florida Massachusetts
Buffalo Central Michigan
Georgia Southern South Alabama

 

The Land Sharps

Buckeye Michelle

Year to Date: 14-6  70.0%, 37.0% Return on Investment

Connecticut +36 vs. Memphis

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

Minnesota +7.5 vs. Iowa

Air Force +3.5 vs. Navy

UAB +9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Friday Dog 13

Year to Date: 11-5 68.8%, 34.4% Return on Investment

Marshall -6 vs. Middle Tennessee

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Ole Miss -22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

West Virginia -28.5 vs. Kansas

Central Florida -24 vs. SMU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

South Florida -4 vs. Massachusetts

Syracuse -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

Year to Date: 17-9  65.4%, 27.3% Return on Investment

Utah St. +3 vs. BYU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida

Florida St. +13 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Southern -13.5 vs. South Alabama

Auburn -3 vs. Mississippi St.

Georgia -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Stewed Meat

Year to Date: 11-11  50.0%, -5% Return on Investment

Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Louisville

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

Florida +3 vs. LSU

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Colorado -2.5 vs. Arizona St.

Houston & Tulsa UNDER 70.5

Michigan & Maryland UNDER 49

 

Dean615

Year to Date: 7-7  50.0%, -5.0% Return on Investment

Notre Dame -6 vs. Virginia Tech

Wisconsin -17.5 vs. Nebraska

Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Kentucky

Florida & LSU UNDER 44.5

Notre Dame & Virginia Tech OVER 56.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 30, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 6

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday October 4
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Tulsa 15.2 17.1 15.0
Troy Georgia St. 16.2 15.3 16.8

 

Friday October 5
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Marshall Middle Tennesee 7.2 8.8 7.2
Louisville Georgia Tech -9.5 -8.4 -10.0
BYU Utah St. 0.1 -0.9 -0.5

 

Saturday October 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern South Alabama 11.5 11.0 11.3
Massachusetts South Florida -11.7 -11.8 -10.5
Wake Forest Clemson -19.6 -19.1 -22.5
Temple East Carolina 15.0 15.0 15.9
Ball St. Northern Illinois -8.3 -6.7 -8.5
Pittsburgh Syracuse -7.4 -6.3 -7.6
Central Florida SMU 26.2 26.8 27.6
Florida Atlantic Old Dominion 16.2 12.7 16.7
Ohio St. Indiana 33.1 31.6 34.2
North Carolina St. Boston College 2.0 4.4 1.9
Florida LSU 1.8 -0.4 1.4
South Carolina Missouri 0.6 1.1 -1.0
Michigan Maryland 21.9 22.1 23.2
Cincinnati Tulane 3.6 4.9 4.1
Kent St. Ohio U -13.5 -13.8 -14.7
Western Michigan Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.7 1.4
Central Michigan Buffalo -8.7 -8.3 -9.3
Akron Miami (O) 9.3 8.8 7.0
Virginia Tech Notre Dame -6.7 -4.1 -5.4
Rutgers Illinois -1.1 -1.7 -1.8
Boise St. San Diego St. 17.5 16.4 17.2
Colorado Arizona St. -2.3 0.6 -1.1
New Mexico St. Liberty -3.2 0.2 -3.3
UTEP North Texas -32.0 -31.3 -33.5
UCLA Washington -27.8 -25.9 -32.5
Stanford Utah 10.5 9.5 10.2
Nevada Fresno St. -16.5 -15.3 -16.8
Oregon St. Washington St. -20.0 -21.4 -21.0
Arizona California -3.1 -2.0 -2.3
UNLV New Mexico 8.2 8.1 8.5
Michigan St. Northwestern 13.3 13.2 12.8
West Virginia Kansas 18.7 19.3 20.3
Arkansas Alabama -37.0 -37.3 -40.1
Louisiana Tech UAB 8.6 8.8 9.7
Texas A&M Kentucky 2.1 1.8 2.2
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. 6.4 6.4 7.1
Georgia Vanderbilt 33.8 29.8 35.0
Minnesota Iowa -6.5 -4.6 -5.8
Toledo Bowling Green 19.9 21.3 20.0
Mississippi St. Auburn 2.0 0.5 0.5
Air Force Navy -0.7 -3.0 -0.7
Ole Miss UL-Monroe 22.0 21.7 22.0
Texas (n) Oklahoma -8.3 -8.4 -9.5
Memphis Connecticut 28.9 30.4 30.9
Texas St. Louisiana -4.0 -2.7 -5.3
Rice UTSA -6.3 -7.7 -8.1
Baylor Kansas St. 2.3 1.7 3.0
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 14.7 14.2 15.2
Wisconsin Nebraska 26.8 25.8 29.0
San Jose St. Colorado St. -1.2 -1.2 -3.0
Hawaii Wyoming -11.6 -9.2 -12.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive ratings.  While past results are a major factor, these are not rankings based on what the teams have done so far.  Some teams will be ranked ahead of teams that beat them.  We are only trying to rate the teams based on what they should do in their next game.  Thus, our goal is to beat the spread and pick winners rather than be a report card for each team.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.0 137.9 141.9 139.9
2 Georgia 131.1 127.6 132.1 130.2
3 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
4 Clemson 129.2 126.5 129.8 128.5
5 Washington 125.6 123.5 127.5 125.5
6 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
7 Penn St. 123.5 120.8 124.0 122.8
8 Notre Dame 124.1 120.9 123.0 122.6
9 Oklahoma 120.8 119.5 121.4 120.6
10 Auburn 119.4 118.3 121.3 119.7
11 Michigan St. 120.3 118.3 119.8 119.5
12 Miami 118.3 117.0 118.2 117.9
13 Mississippi St. 118.4 115.7 118.8 117.7
14 Wisconsin 118.4 115.8 118.2 117.5
15 Stanford 118.2 115.5 118.4 117.4
16 L S U 115.4 115.6 116.6 115.9
17 Central Florida 115.0 115.1 115.5 115.2
18 Missouri 114.8 113.2 116.0 114.6
19 Boise St. 114.3 113.6 114.9 114.3
20 Virginia Tech 114.4 113.8 114.5 114.2
21 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
22 West Virginia 114.5 113.7 114.1 114.1
23 Boston College 114.8 112.0 114.6 113.8
24 Florida 114.2 112.3 115.0 113.8
25 N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.4 113.5 113.6
26 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
27 Oregon 112.9 112.9 113.6 113.1
28 Duke 113.8 111.5 113.2 112.9
29 Oklahoma St. 113.2 111.5 113.4 112.7
30 T C U 112.9 111.9 111.7 112.1
31 Iowa 113.2 110.7 112.4 112.1
32 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.0 111.9
33 Texas 112.5 111.1 111.9 111.8
34 Utah 110.7 108.9 111.2 110.3
35 Fresno St. 110.5 109.2 110.6 110.1
36 Georgia Tech 110.0 108.9 109.6 109.5
37 Syracuse 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5
38 Northwestern 110.0 108.2 110.0 109.4
39 Iowa State 109.8 108.0 109.2 109.0
40 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
41 U S C 109.4 107.6 108.6 108.5
42 Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.2 107.9
43 Texas Tech 108.4 107.0 107.1 107.5
44 California 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.9
45 Purdue 107.5 105.9 107.1 106.8
46 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
47 Wake Forest 107.2 104.9 104.8 105.6
48 Utah St. 103.7 105.0 105.0 104.6
49 N. Texas 103.1 105.5 103.9 104.1
50 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
51 Colorado 103.1 104.7 104.2 104.0
52 Virginia 103.8 104.3 102.9 103.7
53 Minnesota 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5
54 Houston 102.9 103.7 103.1 103.2
55 BYU 102.3 102.6 103.0 102.6
56 Army 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.6
57 Kansas St. 103.3 101.9 102.1 102.4
58 Baylor 102.6 100.6 102.1 101.8
59 Memphis 100.8 102.6 101.5 101.6
60 Ole Miss 101.7 101.3 101.9 101.6
61 Arizona 101.9 100.3 102.1 101.4
62 Vanderbilt 100.2 100.8 100.1 100.4
63 San Diego St. 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.2
64 Pittsburgh 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.4
65 Appalachian St. 98.1 99.8 99.6 99.1
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.0 99.0
67 South Florida 98.2 100.3 98.2 98.9
68 Temple 98.7 98.6 99.4 98.9
69 Arkansas 100.1 97.6 98.8 98.8
70 N. Carolina 98.7 97.6 97.9 98.1
71 Toledo 97.6 98.9 97.5 98.0
72 Louisville 98.0 98.0 97.2 97.7
73 Buffalo 96.7 98.8 97.7 97.7
74 Kansas 98.8 97.3 96.8 97.6
75 Cincinnati 96.6 98.2 96.9 97.2
76 Florida Atlantic 96.8 97.2 97.2 97.1
77 Louisiana Tech 95.5 97.9 97.0 96.8
78 Tennessee 96.4 96.8 95.7 96.3
79 Navy 95.5 98.0 95.1 96.2
80 Wyoming 96.3 96.1 95.9 96.1
81 Marshall 94.3 97.0 95.3 95.6
82 Tulane 95.4 95.8 95.3 95.5
83 Akron 94.9 96.1 95.2 95.4
84 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.6 94.8 95.1
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.2 94.6 94.6
86 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.6 94.0 94.0
87 U C L A 94.8 94.6 92.0 93.8
88 Nebraska 94.6 93.0 92.2 93.2
89 Troy 92.1 93.5 93.6 93.1
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Air Force 91.8 92.0 91.4 91.7
92 Illinois 91.8 91.5 90.8 91.4
93 SMU 91.9 91.3 90.9 91.4
94 Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.4 90.1 90.9
95 Nevada 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.9
96 Middle Tennessee 90.1 91.2 91.1 90.8
97 U N L V 89.9 91.4 90.3 90.5
98 Tulsa 90.8 89.6 91.1 90.5
99 U A B 89.3 91.6 89.7 90.2
100 Arkansas St. 88.9 90.3 90.5 89.9
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 Georgia Southern 87.5 89.0 88.1 88.2
103 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 86.0 86.8
104 Central Michigan 85.5 88.0 86.0 86.5
105 East Carolina 86.2 86.1 86.0 86.1
106 Southern Miss. 84.5 87.6 85.3 85.8
107 W. Kentucky 83.9 87.1 85.1 85.4
108 New Mexico 84.7 86.3 84.8 85.3
109 Oregon St. 86.3 83.9 84.5 84.9
110 Old Dominion 83.6 87.5 83.4 84.9
111 Ball St. 84.1 86.5 83.8 84.8
112 Massachusetts 83.5 85.5 84.7 84.6
113 Colo. State 82.9 83.7 82.8 83.1
114 UL-Monroe 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.2
115 Hawaii 80.7 82.9 79.5 81.0
116 Liberty 81.1 79.9 81.3 80.8
117 U T S A 78.7 82.9 79.1 80.3
118 Bowling Green 80.2 80.1 80.0 80.1
119 Georgia St. 79.0 81.1 79.8 80.0
120 South Alabama 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
121 Coastal Carolina 78.7 81.5 79.3 79.8
122 Louisiana 77.8 79.7 78.8 78.8
123 San Jose St. 78.6 79.5 76.8 78.3
124 Kent St. 77.9 78.9 77.3 78.0
125 N. Mexico St. 74.9 77.1 75.0 75.7
126 Charlotte 74.4 76.6 74.3 75.1
127 Connecticut 74.9 75.2 73.6 74.6
128 Texas State 71.3 74.5 70.9 72.2
129 Rice 69.9 72.7 68.5 70.4
130 U T E P 68.6 71.7 68.0 69.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.0 115.1 115.5 115.2 1-0 4-0
South Florida 98.2 100.3 98.2 98.9 1-0 4-0
Temple 98.7 98.6 99.4 98.9 1-0 2-3
Cincinnati 96.6 98.2 96.9 97.2 1-0 5-0
East Carolina 86.2 86.1 86.0 86.1 0-1 2-2
Connecticut 74.9 75.2 73.6 74.6 0-2 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.7 103.1 103.2 0-0 3-1
Memphis 100.8 102.6 101.5 101.6 0-2 3-2
Navy 95.5 98.0 95.1 96.2 1-1 2-2
Tulane 95.4 95.8 95.3 95.5 1-0 2-3
SMU 91.9 91.3 90.9 91.4 1-0 2-3
Tulsa 90.8 89.6 91.1 90.5 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.6 96.2 95.6 95.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.2 126.5 129.8 128.5 1-0 4-0
Boston College 114.8 112.0 114.6 113.8 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.8 113.4 113.5 113.6 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 107.2 104.9 104.8 105.6 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.0 98.0 97.2 97.7 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 118.3 117.0 118.2 117.9 0-0 3-1
Virginia Tech 114.4 113.8 114.5 114.2 1-0 2-1
Duke 113.8 111.5 113.2 112.9 0-0 4-0
Georgia Tech 110.0 108.9 109.6 109.5 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.8 104.3 102.9 103.7 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 99.8 99.3 98.9 99.4 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 98.7 97.6 97.9 98.1 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.8 119.5 121.4 120.6 2-0 5-0
West Virginia 114.5 113.7 114.1 114.1 2-0 4-0
Oklahoma St. 113.2 111.5 113.4 112.7 1-1 4-1
T C U 112.9 111.9 111.7 112.1 1-1 3-2
Texas 112.5 111.1 111.9 111.8 2-0 4-1
Iowa State 109.8 108.0 109.2 109.0 0-2 1-3
Texas Tech 108.4 107.0 107.1 107.5 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.3 101.9 102.1 102.4 0-2 2-3
Baylor 102.6 100.6 102.1 101.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas 98.8 97.3 96.8 97.6 0-2 2-3
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 2-0 5-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 2-0 4-1
Penn St. 123.5 120.8 124.0 122.8 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 120.3 118.3 119.8 119.5 2-0 3-1
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.0 99.0 1-1 4-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 86.0 86.8 0-2 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.4 115.8 118.2 117.5 1-0 3-1
Iowa 113.2 110.7 112.4 112.1 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 110.0 108.2 110.0 109.4 1-1 1-3
Purdue 107.5 105.9 107.1 106.8 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.5 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.6 93.0 92.2 93.2 0-2 0-4
Illinois 91.8 91.5 90.8 91.4 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 96.8 97.2 97.2 97.1 0-1 2-3
Marshall 94.3 97.0 95.3 95.6 1-0 3-1
Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.4 90.1 90.9 1-0 3-2
Middle Tennessee 90.1 91.2 91.1 90.8 1-0 2-2
W. Kentucky 83.9 87.1 85.1 85.4 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.6 87.5 83.4 84.9 0-2 1-4
Charlotte 74.4 76.6 74.3 75.1 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 103.1 105.5 103.9 104.1 0-1 4-1
Louisiana Tech 95.5 97.9 97.0 96.8 1-0 3-1
U A B 89.3 91.6 89.7 90.2 1-0 3-1
Southern Miss. 84.5 87.6 85.3 85.8 1-0 2-2
U T S A 78.7 82.9 79.1 80.3 1-0 2-3
Rice 69.9 72.7 68.5 70.4 0-1 1-4
U T E P 68.6 71.7 68.0 69.4 0-1 0-5
CUSA Averages 85.9 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.1 120.9 123.0 122.6 x 5-0
BYU 102.3 102.6 103.0 102.6 x 3-2
Army 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.6 x 3-2
Massachusetts 83.5 85.5 84.7 84.6 x 2-4
Liberty 81.1 79.9 81.3 80.8 x 2-2
N. Mexico St. 74.9 77.1 75.0 75.7 x 1-4
Independents Averages 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.7 98.8 97.7 97.7 1-0 4-1
Akron 94.9 96.1 95.2 95.4 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.9 95.2 94.6 94.6 0-0 2-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-1 1-4
Bowling Green 80.2 80.1 80.0 80.1 0-1 1-4
Kent St. 77.9 78.9 77.3 78.0 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.6 98.9 97.5 98.0 0-0 2-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.6 94.8 95.1 2-0 2-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.6 94.0 94.0 0-2 2-3
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 1-0 3-2
Central Michigan 85.5 88.0 86.0 86.5 0-1 1-4
Ball St. 84.1 86.5 83.8 84.8 1-0 2-3
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 114.3 113.6 114.9 114.3 1-0 3-1
Utah St. 103.7 105.0 105.0 104.6 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.3 96.1 95.9 96.1 0-1 2-3
Air Force 91.8 92.0 91.4 91.7 0-2 1-3
New Mexico 84.7 86.3 84.8 85.3 0-0 2-2
Colo. State 82.9 83.7 82.8 83.1 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.5 109.2 110.6 110.1 0-0 3-1
San Diego St. 99.8 100.2 100.7 100.2 0-0 3-1
Nevada 91.0 90.9 90.8 90.9 1-0 3-2
U N L V 89.9 91.4 90.3 90.5 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.7 82.9 79.5 81.0 2-0 5-1
San Jose St. 78.6 79.5 76.8 78.3 0-1 0-4
MWC Averages 93.7 94.2 93.6 93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.6 123.5 127.5 125.5 2-0 4-1
Stanford 118.2 115.5 118.4 117.4 2-0 4-1
Oregon 112.9 112.9 113.6 113.1 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 1-1 4-1
California 107.9 105.3 107.4 106.9 0-1 3-1
Oregon St. 86.3 83.9 84.5 84.9 0-2 1-4
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 110.7 108.9 111.2 110.3 0-2 2-2
U S C 109.4 107.6 108.6 108.5 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 108.5 107.1 108.2 107.9 1-1 3-2
Colorado 103.1 104.7 104.2 104.0 1-0 4-0
Arizona 101.9 100.3 102.1 101.4 1-1 2-3
U C L A 94.8 94.6 92.0 93.8 0-1 0-4
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.0 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.1 127.6 132.1 130.2 3-0 5-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 116.0 114.6 0-1 3-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-0 5-0
Florida 114.2 112.3 115.0 113.8 2-1 4-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.0 111.9 1-2 2-2
Vanderbilt 100.2 100.8 100.1 100.4 0-1 3-2
Tennessee 96.4 96.8 95.7 96.3 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.0 137.9 141.9 139.9 2-0 5-0
Auburn 119.4 118.3 121.3 119.7 1-1 4-1
Mississippi St. 118.4 115.7 118.8 117.7 0-2 3-2
L S U 115.4 115.6 116.6 115.9 2-0 5-0
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 1-1 3-2
Ole Miss 101.7 101.3 101.9 101.6 0-2 3-2
Arkansas 100.1 97.6 98.8 98.8 0-2 1-4
SEC Averages 113.7 112.4 114.2 113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.1 99.8 99.6 99.1 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.5 93.6 93.1 2-0 4-1
Georgia Southern 87.5 89.0 88.1 88.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 79.0 81.1 79.8 80.0 1-0 2-3
Coastal Carolina 78.7 81.5 79.3 79.8 1-1 3-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 88.9 90.3 90.5 89.9 0-1 3-2
UL-Monroe 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.2 0-2 2-3
South Alabama 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 1-4
Louisiana 77.8 79.7 78.8 78.8 0-1 1-3
Texas State 71.3 74.5 70.9 72.2 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.4 85.2 84.3 84.3

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.7 112.4 114.2 113.4
2 ACC 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
3 B12 109.7 108.2 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
5 P-12 107.4 106.0 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.6 96.2 95.6 95.8
7 IND 94.7 94.8 94.9 94.8
8 MWC 93.7 94.2 93.6 93.8
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.9 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.4 85.2 84.3 84.3

The Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. Central Florida
  2. South Florida
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Boise St.
  5. Fresno St.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC [Liberty] Coastal Carolina
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. California
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB Appalachian St.
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati Marshall
Bahamas AAC CUSA South Florida North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Northern Illinois Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt 5-7
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Wyoming] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Toledo Northwestern 5-7
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC [BYU] [UNLV]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Michigan St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Texas
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Georgia Central Florida
Military AAC ACC [Utah] Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Washington St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota Florida
Fiesta At-large At-large Penn St. Oregon
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Clemson
Orange Ohio St. Notre Dame
Championship Alabama Notre Dame
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
Teams in Italics are 5-7 that qualify based on top APR scores

FBS Power 5 Schools That May Have New Coaches in 2019

There are sites where they list 10-50 head coaches on the hot seat.  Some of these are ridiculous, as they place secure coaches on their lists just to fill up space.  Some of these lists are not updated frequently, as they continue to list already dismissed coaches as being on a hot seat.

The majority of you reading this care mostly about the Power 5 schools.  We have a list of six coaches legitimately on the hot seat after one month of the football season has been played.  Additionally, we added one other that could be a one year hire.

We present the top 6 in reverse order with number one being the most likely candidate to not be his team’s head coach in 2019.

6. Texas Tech–Kliff Kingsbury

If Texas Tech can get to a bowl this year, Kingsbury will most likely get a one year reprieve.  The Red Raiders have an upset win over Oklahoma State, and this gives TTU a chance to make it to 6-6 and earn a low tier bowl.

5. Rutgers–Chris Ash

Rutgers has done very little in Ash’s first two seasons, and they are headed for a last place finish in the Big Ten East this year.  Losing to Kansas and Buffalo has harmed his job status, but transitioning to the Big Ten has been very difficult.  Ash may get one more year to try to turn the program around.

4. Georgia Tech–Paul Johnson

The fans of the Yellow Jackets have grown a little tired of watching their team rush for 300 yards per game and give up a ton of passing yards, while losing a lot of close games.  The problem with dismissing Johnson is that either Tech will have to go through a rough transition moving from the option offense to a more conventional offense, possibly having a weak offense for the next two (even three) years, or they will have to hire another option style coach, like Army’s Jeff Monken.  Tech is most likely headed to another sub .500 record.

3. Larry Fedora–North Carolina

Unless the Tar Heels make a miraculous turnaround and beat several ACC opponents, including Duke, and then they sneak into a minor bowl game, Fedora is most likely out after this season.  UNC has one ACC Coastal Division title and no conference championships in Fedora’s tenure, and the school has been in the headlines for the wrong reasons too many times in recent years.

2. Lovie Smith–Illinois

Illinois last had a winning season in 2011, and that team went 7-6 by beating a 6-7 UCLA team in a bowl and beating a slate of weak opponents.  The Illini last had a really successful season in 2007 when they snuck into the Rose Bowl.  This isn’t a sexy program, but there is no reason it cannot compete in the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions.  Smith’s teams in Champaign-Urbana have yet to show any intent on competing.  If Illinois loses at Nebraska in November, the announcement could come before they play their next game.

1 D.J. Durkin–Maryland

This one is obvious.  Durkin is holding on to this job strictly on a technicality at the moment, as he is on leave pending a hearing into the death of former player Jordan McNair.  We can see no way that Durkin will keep this job.  Whether interim head coach Matt Canada can win enough games to become the full-time coach is debatable, as the school may choose to clean house and start from scratch like it once did with its basketball program when it rambled out of control.

Could He Be One and Done?

One coach not on the hot seat list above is Arizona coach Kevin Sumlin.  Sumlin has not been the best fit with the talent on hand in Tucson, and the Cardinals are looking like a last place team in the weaker South Division in the Pac-12.

Sumlin inherited the top dual threat quarterback in the nation in Khalil Tate.  Last year under previous coach Rich Rodriguez, Tate rushed for 1,411 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging more than nine yards per rush.  He threw for 1,591 yards and 14 touchdowns.  He missed two games and part of another, so with 8 offensive starters returning, including their top-rate leader, Arizona was expected to score as many points per game as they did last year, if not more.  How many did they average in 2017?  41.3 points per game ranked among the national leaders.

Arizona returned nearly every player that caught a pass and their top non-QB runner.  The offense under Rich Rod would have expected to top 500 yards per game and 40 points per game for sure.

Sumlin has turned Tate into a drop back passer, and the results have been disastrous.  Through five games this year, Tate averages a measley 14 rushing yards per game.  His passing efficiency is down, mostly due to a much lower completion percentage.  Most importantly, the Wildcats are averaging 24 points per game against FBS opponents.  A 3-9 record is the most likely scenario, but that assumes ‘Zona will beat UCLA.

Sumlin has one saving grace.  The school will basically have to mortgage the football stadium to buy out his contract this year or next year, unless they can find cause to dismiss him.  Cause does not mean going 2-10.  He would have to be culpable in a violation of rules or school policy.

Coaches Likely To Receive Promotions To Better Jobs

There are some obvious names that are likely to be candidates to move up to bigger and better jobs in 2019.  It depends on which jobs come open.  You never know when somebody might retire, take an NFL job, or step down due to health reasons.  What if Nick Saban goes 15-0 and decides he has nothing more to prove at Alabama?  He might decide that he has one more chance at a Lomardi Trophy.  Others that potentially could retire include Bill Snyder at Kansas State, Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, David Cutcliffe at Duke, and even Mark Dantonio at Michigan State.

Who would be the key candidates that some school’s athletic director and board members might look to when they fill these jobs?

Coaches already at Power 5 Schools

1. Matt Campbell–Iowa St.

Campbell has turned Iowa State into a serious player in the Big 12, but this program has so many liabilities trying to compete with Oklahoma and Texas.  It isn’t likely that Campbell can sustain success over the long haul in Ames, so he might look to strike while the iron is hot, as it might start to cool after this season.

2. Bronco Mendenhall–Virginia

Mendenhall won at BYU and was a somewhat surprising choice for the Cavaliers’ job.  After a slow rebuilding process, he has made the Cavs a decent team that should earn a second consecutive bowl appearance.  This has never been a major football power, and Mendenhall maybe has one more job left in his resume.

3. Jeff Brohm–Purdue

Brohm won at Western Kentucky and immediately won at Purdue last year, taking the Boilermakers to their first bowl game in five years.  This is a hard place to win, but it has been done before.  However, Purdue is a basketball school, and other football powers can offer Brohm more than Purdue can match.  If he can get the Boilermakers back to a bowl this year after  an 0-3 start, somebody may come after him.

4. Mike Leach–Washington State

This would be a long shot, but Leach has been offered new job opportunities in the past 12 months.  He chose to stay in Pullman.  If you have never been to this part of the country, Pullman is in one of the most beautiful areas, offering lifelong Westerners like Leach something he could not find in the East or South.  The Palouse can transform an Instagrammer into the next Ansel Adams.  Leach might like to finish his career in this Heaven on Earth.  The contract to lure him away would have to be guaranteed with several million dollars per year offered.

Group  of 5 Head Coaches

Bryan Harsin–Boise St.

Harsin has become the next great Boise State head coach.  Dirk Koetter could not win at Arizona State after leaving Boise.  Dan Hawkins failed at Colorado.  Chris Petersen has become a major success at Washington, so one of the three great Bronco coaches has been able to do the trick away from the field of blue.

Craig Bohl–Wyoming

Bohl helped create the FCS dynasty at North Dakota State, winning three consecutive national titles.  He’s done an admirable job at Wyoming, where even though the state produces few FBS-caliber recruits, this program has a long history of being viable.  Bohl’s biggest liability is the one he can do nothing about–he’s 61 years old.

Scott Satterfield–Appalachian State

It seems like it is just a matter of time before some school comes after him and then offers him what it will take to get him to sign on the dotted line.  The Sun Belt Conference might never produce a New Year’s Six Bowl team, because it generally ranks last among the Group of 5.  Appalachian State might be good enough to play in an upper tier December bowl game if given the chance, but it isn’t likely to happen.  A 12-1 season is quite possible this year, and it will only lead to a bowl like the Camellia, Dollar General, or New Orleans.

Neal Brown–Troy

Brown is exactly like Satterfield.  He has done an incredible job at Troy and should continue to receive attention from other schools looking to fill vacancies.  Beating LSU last year and Nebraska this year will move him onto some school’s short list in December.

Five Coordinators at FBS Schools That Should Become Head Coaches One Day

Dave Arranda–LSU Defensive Coordinator

Mike Bloomgren–Stanford Offensive Coordinator

Tee Martin–USC Offensive Coordinator

Todd Orlando–Texas Defensive Coordinator

Brent Venables–Clemson Defensive Coordinator

 

Five FCS Head Coaches That Could Become FBS Head Coaches

Brian Bohannon–Kennesaw State (An option style coach)

John Grass–Jacksonville State

Lance Guidry–McNeese State

Mike Houston–James Madison

Chris Klieman–North Dakota State

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 5

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:18 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday September 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina 18.6 18.2 19.1

 

Friday September 28
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulane Memphis -7.4 -9.6 -9.0
Colorado UCLA 8.0 9.7 12.2

 

Saturday September 29
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Army 2.8 4.8 4.3
Connecticut Cincinnati -13.1 -14.6 -14.7
Michigan St. Central Michigan 40.2 35.2 39.4
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 0.9 1.6 2.1
Ball St. Kent St. 3.5 4.9 3.3
Wake Forest Rice 39.5 34.0 38.3
East Carolina Old Dominion 5.3 1.1 5.3
Georgia Tech Bowling Green 28.6 27.3 27.8
Boston College Temple 20.7 17.8 20.0
Clemson Syracuse 24.2 22.8 25.9
Appalachian St. South Alabama 16.5 15.9 16.8
Duke Virginia Tech 6.6 4.7 6.3
Georgia St. UL-Monroe -8.1 -5.2 -7.9
Ohio U Massachusetts 13.2 12.1 12.3
Central Florida Pittsburgh 14.1 14.5 15.1
Kentucky South Carolina 2.2 2.0 2.1
North Carolina St. Virginia 12.8 12.0 13.4
Rutgers Indiana -9.2 -9.3 -11.0
Air Force Nevada 6.5 7.0 6.7
Washington St. Utah 0.7 1.4 -1.3
Arizona St. Oregon St. 24.8 25.8 26.3
Washington BYU 26.1 23.1 27.3
Fresno St. Toledo 16.0 12.7 15.8
Miami (O) Western Michigan -1.3 -1.4 0.3
Louisville Florida St. -4.9 -4.1 -5.2
Penn St. Ohio St. -2.6 -3.2 -2.9
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -0.4 -0.4 -2.0
Georgia Tennessee 39.3 35.0 41.7
New Mexico Liberty 11.6 15.0 11.9
Auburn Southern Miss. 41.8 37.3 43.5
TCU Iowa St. 6.3 7.0 5.6
Alabama Louisiana 63.2 59.2 64.1
Oklahoma Baylor 18.7 19.4 19.8
UTSA UTEP 12.3 13.7 13.8
Nebraska Purdue -9.5 -9.3 -11.5
Kansas St. Texas -6.4 -6.4 -6.9
Texas Tech West Virginia -1.9 -2.5 -2.9
North Texas Louisiana Tech 13.6 13.8 13.4
UAB Charlotte 17.0 17.0 17.1
Kansas Oklahoma St. -10.3 -9.6 -12.7
Western Kentucky Marshall -8.4 -7.8 -8.3
Mississippi St. Florida 11.2 10.4 11.1
LSU Ole Miss 13.3 13.8 13.9
Troy Coastal Carolina 14.8 13.0 15.8
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic -6.5 -5.6 -6.0
Arizona USC -3.6 -3.4 -2.5
Wyoming Boise St. -14.0 -13.3 -14.7
San Jose St. Hawaii 1.6 0.1 1.0
Notre Dame Stanford 4.4 3.5 2.2
Northwestern Michigan -12.4 -13.2 -13.1
Texas A&M Arkansas 17.6 19.0 19.7
California Oregon 1.6 -1.5 0.6

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 27.9
SMU Houston Baptist 34.0
Florida Int’l. Ark.-Pine Bluff 43.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9
2 Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1
3 Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6
4 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
5 Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3
6 Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1
7 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
8 Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8
9 Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5
10 Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0
11 Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8
12 Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7
13 Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2
14 Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
15 Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8
16 Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0
17 Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6
18 Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3
19 L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1
20 Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9
21 Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7
22 S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5
23 N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5
24 West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4
25 Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2
26 Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6
27 Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2
28 T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2
29 Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1
30 Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9
31 Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9
32 Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8
33 Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4
34 Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1
35 Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7
36 Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9
37 Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7
38 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
39 Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4
40 Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3
41 U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0
42 Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9
43 Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7
44 Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7
45 Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6
46 N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7
47 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
48 Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2
49 Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7
50 Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3
51 Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8
52 Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7
53 Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2
55 Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9
56 Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9
57 BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8
58 Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4
59 Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3
60 Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9
61 Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7
62 Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9
63 Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4
64 N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2
65 San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1
67 Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9
68 South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6
69 Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5
70 Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4
71 Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4
72 Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1
73 Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1
74 Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9
75 Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7
76 Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4
77 Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0
78 Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8
79 Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4
80 U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4
81 Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2
82 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2
83 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0
84 Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3
85 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1
86 Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9
87 Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5
88 Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4
89 Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2
92 Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2
93 SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2
94 Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0
95 Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7
96 U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3
97 Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3
98 U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9
99 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9
100 Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8
103 Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1
104 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8
105 UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4
106 East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2
107 Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2
108 W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1
109 Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1
110 Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8
111 Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0
113 South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0
114 Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9
115 Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3
116 Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1
117 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
118 Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7
119 Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7
120 U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5
121 Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8
122 Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5
123 San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4
124 Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3
125 Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8
126 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5
127 Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4
128 Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2 1-0 3-0
South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6 1-0 4-0
Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1 1-0 2-2
Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9 0-0 4-0
East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2 0-1 1-2
Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7 0-1 3-1
Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9 0-0 3-1
Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0 1-1 2-2
Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0 0-0 1-3
SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2 1-0 1-3
Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6 1-0 4-0
Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8 0-0 3-1
Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0 0-0 4-0
Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1 1-0 2-1
Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2 1-0 4-0
West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2 0-1 3-1
T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2 0-1 2-2
Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9 1-0 3-1
Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9 0-1 1-2
Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9 1-0 3-1
Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9 1-0 3-1
Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3 0-1 2-2
Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4 0-1 2-2
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 1-0 4-0
Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1 1-0 3-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-0 4-0
Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5 1-0 2-1
Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1 0-1 3-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 1-0 3-1
Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7 1-0 1-2
Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6 0-1 1-3
Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5 0-1 0-3
Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5 0-0 2-2
Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-1
Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7 1-0 2-2
Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9 0-0 1-2
W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-3
Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8 0-2 1-3
Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4 1-0 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7 0-0 4-0
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2 0-0 2-1
U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0 1-0 2-1
U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5 0-0 1-3
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-1 1-3
U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2 0-0 0-4
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0 x 4-0
BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8 x 3-1
Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9 x 2-2
Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8 x 2-3
Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5 x 1-2
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5 x 1-4
Indep. Averages 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4 1-0 4-0
Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3 0-0 1-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-0 1-3
Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3 0-1 1-3
Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4 0-0 2-1
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0 1-0 1-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1 0-1 2-2
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 0-0 2-2
Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2 0-1 1-3
Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1 0-0 1-3
MAC Averages 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4 0-1 1-2
New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9 0-0 3-1
U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3 0-0 2-2
Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 4-1
San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3 2-0 3-1
Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7 2-0 4-0
Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4 0-1 3-1
Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4 0-1 3-1
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-3
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0 1-1 2-2
Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7 0-1 2-2
Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4 0-0 3-0
Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9 1-0 2-2
U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1 2-0 4-0
Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3 0-1 3-1
S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5 1-1 2-1
Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6 2-0 4-0
Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9 1-1 3-1
Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9 0-1 2-2
Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4 0-1 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9 2-0 4-0
Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8 1-1 3-1
Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8 0-1 3-1
L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1 1-0 4-0
Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9 0-1 2-2
Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4 0-1 3-1
Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1 0-1 1-3
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4 0-0 2-1
Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0 0-0 3-1
UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4 0-1 2-2
South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0 1-0 1-3
Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8 0-1 1-2
Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

 

The Conference Ratings

 

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
5 P-12 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
7 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
8 IND 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
9 MAC 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida

2. South Florida

3. North Texas

4. Cincinnati

5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Arkansas St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Washington St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Buffalo Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC [UNLV] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati UAB
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Army]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 [Utah] Iowa St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Atlantic Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Wyoming] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Akron] [BYU]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virgnia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Tech Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. LSU
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Florida
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Georgia Southern
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma Oregon
Belk ACC SEC Duke Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Notre Dame Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina St. Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota California
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa USC
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Syracuse South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Stanford Ohio St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Texas A&M
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Penn St.
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Best TV Games This Week

All Game Times, Eastern Daylight

Games in Red Are Top 3 of the Day

Time Home Team Visitor Network
12:00 PM Clemson Syracuse ABC
12:00 PM Buffalo Army CBSSN
12:00 PM Texas Tech West Virginia ESPN2
12:20 PM North Carolina St. Virginia ACCN
3:30 PM Kansas St. Texas FS1
4:30 PM Northwestern Michigan Fox
6:00 PM Mississippi St. Florida ESPN
6:00 PM Washington St. Utah Pac-12
7:00 PM Duke Virginia Tech ESPN2
7:30 PM Penn St. Ohio St. ABC
7:30 PM Notre Dame Stanford NBC
7:30 PM Kentucky South Carolina SEC
9:15 PM LSU Ole Miss ESPN
10:30 PM Fresno St. Toledo ESPNU
10:30 PM California Oregon FS1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 19, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 20-24, 2018

Hooray for once.  The PiRate Ratings official picks last week enjoyed a nice winning record, sending the year to date record into positive territory.  It is a small profit, as the return on investment is just 1.92%, but at least it isn’t a red number.  Better yet, our straight picks against the spread or in the totals have a record of 11-6-1 for the season.  It is the exotic picks that have stunk up the joint.  Thus, we will go with just straight picks this week.

Best of all, out special Land Sharps are just torching the books with their selections.  One of the sharps, Buckeye Michelle, has been insane with her picks the last two weeks, and we have received messages from some of our regular subscribers asking for more information about her.  First of all, we are not in the business of matchmaking, so don’t ask.  And, yes, she is an incredibly beautiful 29-year old football fanatic.

One of you actually revealed to us that you know who Stewed Meat is.  Stewed is a real sharp.  Stewed lives in Nevada, and handicapping is Stewed career.  Stewed has shown us something special this week that many people never get the opportunity to see performed–playing the middle against both sides.  We’ll explain more about this at the end.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Selections Against The Spread

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wisconsin Iowa 3.5 Iowa
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 4.5 Coastal Carolina
North Carolina St. Marshall 4.5 North Carolina St.
Maryland Minnesota 3 Minnesota
Stanford Oregon 1.5 Stanford
West Virginia Kansas St. 17 Kansas St.
Chicago Arizona 7 Arizona
Philadelphia Indianapolis 6 Philadelphia
Green Bay Washington 3 Washington

Now for the Land Sharps.  At the present time, this is how each has done so far.

Buckeye Michelle is 9-1 for 90% against the spread and +$790 a 79% ROI

Cal Gal Tiffy is 9-3 for 75% against the spread and +$570 a 47.5% ROI

Friday Dog 13 is 4-2 for 67% against the spread and +$180 a 30% ROI

Stewed Meat is 6-4 for 60% against the spread and +$160 a 16% ROI

Dean 615 is 3-3 for 50% against the spread and -$30 a -5% ROI

If more than one of our expert pickers agree on picking the same game, it must be a strong pick.  You will notice that a couple of games were selected by multiple sharps this week.  You will also notice that a couple of sharps picked against each other.

If you are just tuning in to this feature, the rules are simple.  The 5 participants can select against the margin or going over or under the total for any FBS college football game.  They can select 3, 5,7, or 9 games each week.  We then select the most favorable spread available at oddshark.com.

Here are the Land Sharps Picks For the Week.

Buckeye Michelle

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Wake Forest +8 vs. Notre Dame

Army +32 vs. Oklahoma

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

 

Cal Gal Tiffy

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

South Carolina -2 vs. Vanderbilt

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

UTSA -7 vs. Texas St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Penn St. -28 vs. Illinois

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

Virginia -5 vs. Louisville

Clemson -16 vs. Georgia Tech

TCU -3 vs. Texas

 

Stewed Meat

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Iowa +3.5 vs. Wisconsin

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

Louisville +5.5 vs. Virginia

 

Dean 615

Notre Dame -7 vs. Wake Forest

Michigan St. -4.5 vs. Indiana

USC -3.5 vs. Washington St.

Texas +3.5 vs. TCU

Nebraska +18 vs. Michigan

 

Special Look At Stewed Meat’s Real Life Strategy

Stewed is an expert at “Middling”.  In order to be able to do this, Stewed gets access to playing the early line and then immediately plays one side of a game in which Stewed believes the line is off and will move in the opposite direction of which Stewed originally played.  Then, when the line moves in the opposite direction, Stewed plays the other side

Let’s look at an example.  Let’s say Alabama opens as a 14.5 point favorite over Auburn, and Stewed likes Auburn at this number.  So Stewed wagers on Auburn at +14.5.  During the week, a lot of other people believe 14.5 points are too much for Alabama, and they bet the spread down to 11.5.  Now, Stewed wagers on Alabama at -11.5.

On the surface, you might think this is nuts.  Stewed will have a slim chance of the game ending up at 12, 13, or 14 points in Alabama’s favor, giving Stewed two wins.  In most cases, Stewed will win one and lose one and lose $10 for every $100 wagered on both sides.

However, if you look at the 11-10 odds and do a little mathematical calculations, Stewed only needs to have the game come in at the middle of the extremes one time out of 19 in order to turn a profit, plus Stewed has a Margin of Safety in place, because the most Stewed can lose is 10% on the dollar wagered.

Earlier this week, Stewed Wagered on the following games that have seen a significant line change and then wagered on the other team once the line moved in the other direction.

SMU +12.5 vs. Navy

Navy -7 vs. SMU

 

Ball St. Pk vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky +3 vs. Ball St.

 

Alabama -23.5 vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M +27 vs. Alabama

 

Auburn -24 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas +30 vs. Auburn

If just one of these four games come in with the spread in the middle, Stewed will turn a nice profit.

September 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Tulsa 8.4 9.6 8.3

 

Friday September 21
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Central Florida Florida Atlantic 17.3 16.5 16.6
Illinois Penn St. -26.8 -23.9 -28.2
USC Washington St. 2.8 1.8 3.1

 

Saturday September 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Akron 18.5 15.2 17.5
Marshall North Carolina St. -16.0 -12.5 -14.4
Massachusetts Charlotte 10.2 9.7 11.0
Indiana Michigan St. -20.5 -18.8 -20.5
Maryland Minnesota -2.4 -3.4 -3.3
Ball St. Western Kentucky 1.6 0.6 -0.2
Purdue Boston College -10.2 -9.0 -11.1
Syracuse Connecticut 33.9 32.3 34.3
Miami (Fla.) Florida Int’l. 32.4 26.6 31.4
North Carolina Pittsburgh 0.8 0.0 0.6
Florida St. Northern Illinois 13.6 11.8 13.0
Bowling Green Miami (O) -3.6 -5.3 -4.1
Ohio St. Tulane 37.3 34.7 38.4
Georgia Tech Clemson -18.0 -15.8 -19.2
Cincinnati Ohio U 1.8 2.2 1.0
South Florida East Carolina 15.4 18.9 17.0
Wake Forest Notre Dame -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Toledo Nevada 9.0 10.8 9.1
Virginia Louisville 4.8 5.2 4.4
Georgia St. Western Michigan -11.4 -10.3 -11.3
Rutgers Buffalo -2.3 -5.5 -5.7
Oregon St. Arizona -10.1 -10.8 -11.6
Oregon Stanford -5.6 -3.0 -5.5
Tennessee Florida -10.9 -8.8 -12.0
Kentucky Mississippi St. -12.1 -10.6 -12.9
Michigan Nebraska 26.9 27.2 29.8
West Virginia Kansas St. 9.5 10.0 9.8
Ole Miss Kent St. 26.5 25.3 28.1
Southern Miss. Rice 14.9 15.1 16.7
Auburn Arkansas 24.7 26.1 28.6
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 14.7 14.3 16.3
SMU Navy -1.6 -5.2 -2.3
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 3.7 2.6 4.1
Arkansas St. UNLV 2.6 2.3 3.9
Texas TCU 0.2 -0.4 0.4
Oklahoma Army 29.5 27.8 30.2
LSU Louisiana Tech 23.0 20.4 22.9
Baylor Kansas 4.4 3.3 5.9
Vanderbilt South Carolina -7.1 -5.2 -6.3
Memphis South Alabama 26.8 27.0 27.3
Utah St. Air Force 13.2 14.6 15.3
UTEP New Mexico St. -3.9 -3.1 -4.5
UTSA Texas St. 11.1 12.4 12.5
UL-Monroe Troy -1.2 -2.9 -2.0
Old Dominion Virginia Tech -34.2 -29.7 -34.3
Liberty North Texas -17.1 -21.5 -17.8
Missouri Georgia -14.7 -12.5 -14.9
Alabama Texas A&M 28.9 28.0 30.4
Iowa Wisconsin 0.3 0.6 0.1
Washington Arizona St. 22.5 21.5 25.4
San Diego St. Eastern Michigan 10.9 10.1 11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Colorado St. Illinois St. 10.5
Central Michigan Maine 5.0
Duke UNC-Central 49.9
Appalachian St. Gardner-Webb 40.9
BYU McNeese St. 19.0
Houston Texas Southern 45.6
Hawaii Duquesne 27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2
2 Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4
3 Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1
5 Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7
6 Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1
7 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
8 Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0
9 Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9
10 Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8
11 Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7
12 Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4
13 Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6
14 Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3
15 Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3
16 Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3
17 Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0
18 Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9
19 Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7
20 L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4
21 Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5
23 Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4
24 Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3
25 N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3
26 Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1
27 Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0
28 S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7
29 Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7
30 West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5
31 Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8
32 Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6
33 Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3
34 Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4
35 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
36 Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8
37 Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4
38 Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4
39 California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3
40 Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3
41 Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2
42 U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0
43 Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6
45 Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5
46 Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2
48 Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7
49 Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5
50 Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2
51 Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1
52 Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0
54 BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6
55 N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5
56 Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0
59 Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0
60 Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4
61 San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7
62 Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6
63 Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4
64 Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2
65 N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0
66 Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9
67 South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4
68 Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8
69 Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7
70 Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2
71 Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3
72 Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1
73 Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1
74 Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8
75 Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6
76 Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2
79 Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0
80 Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5
81 Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4
82 U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1
83 Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0
84 Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6
86 Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3
87 Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7
88 Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2
89 Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9
90 Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6
91 Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8
92 Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7
93 Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1
94 Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0
95 SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8
96 U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7
98 Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8
99 U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7
100 Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7
101 Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6
102 Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2
103 New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6
104 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9
105 UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8
106 Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7
107 East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3
108 Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0
109 W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5
110 Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3
111 Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2
112 Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8
113 Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5
114 Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7
115 South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2
116 U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2
117 Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
119 Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7
120 Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5
121 Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5
122 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0
123 Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2
124 San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2
125 Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7
126 Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9
127 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4
128 Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6
129 Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4 0-0 3-0
Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3 0-0 1-2
Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7 0-0 3-0
East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-1 2-1
Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4 0-0 2-1
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 2-1
Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3 0-0 1-2
Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1 0-0 1-2
SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8 0-0 0-3
AAC Averages 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0 0-0 3-0
Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3 1-0 3-0
N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2 1-0 3-0
Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1 0-1 2-1
Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2 0-2 1-2
Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2 0-0 2-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3 0-0 2-1
Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7 0-0 3-0
Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8 0-1 1-2
Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0 1-0 2-1
Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0 0-0 2-1
N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9 0-0 3-0
T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5 0-0 2-1
West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5 0-0 2-0
Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6 0-0 2-1
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-1 0-2
Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7 0-0 2-1
Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8 0-0 2-1
Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4 0-0 2-1
Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9 0-0 2-1
Big 12 Averages 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1 1-0 3-0
Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0 0-0 2-1
Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9 0-0 3-0
Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8 0-0 1-1
Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4 0-0 2-1
Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8 0-0 3-0
Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0 0-0 2-1
Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3 0-0 3-0
Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4 1-0 1-2
Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5 0-0 3-0
Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2 0-1 0-3
Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1 0-0 0-2
Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6 0-0 2-1
Big Ten Averages 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7 0-0 2-1
Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7 0-0 1-2
Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2 1-0 2-1
W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5 0-0 0-3
Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1 0-2 0-3
Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9 1-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5 0-0 3-0
Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8 0-0 2-0
U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2 0-0 0-3
Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6 0-0 0-3
CUSA Averages 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6 x 3-0
BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6 x 2-1
Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2 x 2-1
Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3 x 1-3
Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4 x 0-4
Indep. Averages 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6 1-0 3-0
Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6 0-0 1-1
Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8 0-0 0-3
Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5 0-0 1-2
Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5 1-0 1-2
Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9 0-1 2-1
Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7 0-0 1-2
Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0 0-1 0-3
Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7 0-0 1-2
MAC Averages 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5 0-0 2-1
Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7 0-0 2-1
Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0 0-0 2-1
U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7 0-0 2-1
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 3-1
San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7 1-0 2-1
Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4 1-0 3-0
Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7 0-0 3-0
Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4 0-0 3-0
California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7 0-0 1-2
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0 0-1 1-2
Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6 0-0 2-1
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 3-0
Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6 0-0 1-2
U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4 1-0 3-0
Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-0 3-0
S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3 0-1 2-1
Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3 1-0 3-0
Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0 0-0 2-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8 0-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2 1-0 3-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1 0-0 3-0
Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7 0-1 2-1
L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4 1-0 3-0
Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1 0-0 2-1
Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1 0-1 2-1
Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2 0-0 1-2
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4 0-0 1-1
Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8 0-0 2-1
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0 0-0 2-1
Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7 0-0 2-1
UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8 0-0 2-1
South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2 1-0 1-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5 0-0 1-1
Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6 0-1 1-2
Sun Belt Averages 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
3 B12 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
4 BTEN 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
6 AAC 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
7 MWC 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
8 IND 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
11 SUN 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

This Week’s Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. South Florida
  2. Central Florida
  3. North Texas
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. [Northern Illinois]
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Marshall Western Michigan
Frisco AAC MAC [Utah] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Buffalo Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [BYU]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Army] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Wake Forest Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech California
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Boston College Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. South Carolina
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Washington
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Syracuse Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oregon North Texas
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Texas A&M
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Mississippi St.
PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Penn St. Georgia
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Clemson
Champ. Game Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Sweet 16 Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Washington State at USC  10:30 PM  on ESPN

USC has dropped consecutive road games, the most previous not being all that close.  With a true freshman quarterback and his top receiver also being a true freshman, can the Trojans score enough points against the Air Raid offense of the Pirate, Mike Leach.

Washington State is 3-0 but has yet to face strong competition, but if the Cougars can win this game, they become a contender for the Pac-12 North Division title.

Saturday
12:00 Noon

Georgia at Missouri  ESPN

Georgia should win this game by playing smashmouth football against a Missouri defense that just gave up a lot of points and yards against Purdue.  However, the Tigers may have overlooked an 0-2 team.  Still, Georgia looks invincible at least until they travel to the Bayou later in the season.

Minnesota at Maryland  BTN

All of a sudden, the Big Ten West looks open for more than one team.  Minnesota is a silent 3-0, and a win in College Park could find the Gophers ranked and in contention for the division flag.

Maryland’s win over Texas would have meant a lot more had they not gotten their Terrapin shell handed to them by lowly Temple.  The Terps must win this game to have any chance at becoming bowl eligible.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest ABC

Notre Dame is a very soft 3-0, and they have played all three games at home.  This will be the Irish’s first road game and first ACC opponent of the season.  They play at a Wake Forest team that made a valiant comeback that came up a bit short against Boston College.  Notre Dame must go 12-0 or 11-1 with a lot of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.

3:30 PM

Clemson at Georgia Tech ABC

We are not going to tell you that this game should be close, but…..

Clemson has not really fired on all cylinders yet.  It can be hard to play two separate offensive game plans every week, and the two quarterback system may prove to be a liability at some point.

The Tigers have been upset both of the last two years in conference play.  We don’t expect this to be one of those games, but we are anxious to see how CU uses their two QBs in conference play.

Georgia Tech’s multiple option offense should be forced into more passing situations against the top defensive front in the nation, but should Clemson’s offense not sustain a good number of drives, the Tigers may give up some points in the second half.

Kansas St. at West Virginia ESPN

West Virginia missed Saturday’s game, and so far teams that had games cancelled have not been all that sharp.  They face a Kansas State team that is going to need to pick up an upset or two to reach bowl eligibility this year.  The Mountaineers need to pick up a statement win in conference play to strike fear in the Oklahoma’s, Oklahoma State’s, and TCU’s.

Texas A&M at Alabama CBS

This week, the Crimson Tide have done something that has not been done in 17 years.  At the end of the 2001 season, National Champion Miami of Florida rated 9.6 points ahead of #2 Oregon.  Alabama is the first team since to be more than a touchdown ahead of the number two team in our ratings.

At this point, we’re not sure the Buffalo Bills could beat Alabama at New Era Field in the snow.  Alabama looked as good if not better than the 1995 Nebraska team that won the national championship with ease.

What makes this game so inviting is that Texas A&M played Clemson a couple weeks ago.  In that game, the Aggies looked like they belonged on the same field with a top 10 team.  If Alabama makes this another laugher, that will tell us all just how far ahead of another potential playoff team they have advanced.

TCU at Texas Fox

These teams don’t particularly care much for each other, and with TCU coming into this game with doubts, while the Longhorns are sky high, it should be quite interesting.  Prior last Saturday, TCU looked like a cinch to win this game according to the ratings.  After the ‘Horns clobbered USC and TCU blew up in a four-minute stretch against Ohio State, this game becomes a toss-up in the ratings.

What’s up for grabs in this game is a chance to become a key contender for the number two spot in the conference standings, which in the Big 12 will get you in the Conference Championship Game.

4 PM

South Carolina at Vanderbilt SEC

South Carolina is another team that had a game cancelled unexpectedly due to the weather.  They have not played since Georgia mutilated them in Columbia.  At this point, the Gamecocks are playing for a Citrus Bowl bid, as Georgia is not going to lose two conference games.

Vanderbilt did everything but outscore Notre Dame in South Bend, Saturday.  The Commodores outgained the Irish by 40 yards, but they suffered a loss of at least 11 points due not being able to hang onto the ball.  If the Commodores can come out with a chip on their shoulders, this can be a close game that could be decided in the final minutes.  However, as long time Commodore fans know, Vanderbilt has been known to come out flat and not show up the week after they experienced a moral victory.

7 PM

Florida at Tennessee ESPN

The winner of this game will earn a bowl bid this year.  That’s more than enough to make a game important, but this is the first chance for two new coaches to get the upper hand over their rival in this big rivalry game.

Tennessee’s defense has looked strong the last two weeks against an FCS team and the #130 FBS team.  How will they look against a better than average SEC offense?  Better yet, if you can only score 24 points at home against UTEP, how are you going to score enough to beat the Gators?

Mississippi St. at Kentucky ESPN2

One of these two teams will be 4-0 after this game, almost assuredly ranked in the top 25, and a serious contender for the Citrus or even Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.

The win over Florida in Gainesville is looking mighty good for the Wildcats, while Mississippi State looked a lot like Penn State in their last two games, which shouldn’t surprise many people that know that Coach Joe Moorhead was the offensive coordinator in Happy Valley.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. FS1

After getting pasted by Ole Miss in week one, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury was square in the middle of a hot seat in Lubbock.  The 63-point showing in a win over Houston has cooled the seat a bit, but the Red Raiders have an uphill climb to find four more wins and get bowl eligible.  Anything short of a bowl bid would most likely be the end of the Kingsbury era.

Oklahoma State looked like a playoff contender in their comfortable win over Boise State.  The Cowboys look like the top contender to their rival Sooners in the Big 12, and if they slow down the Red Raiders and hold them to 28 points or less, while winning by double digits, OSU could move on to a 9-0 start when they go to Norman in November.

 

7:30 PM

Michigan St. at Indiana BTN

Michigan State has been a major disappointment to start this season.  The Spartans had the most experience returning in FBS football this year, off a team that won 10 games last year.  A much closer than expected opening win over Utah State was followed by a loss at Arizona State.  After a week off, they now find themselves travelling into a potential ambush in Bloomington.

Indiana is 3-0 for the first time since 2015 and just the second time in the last nine seasons.  The Hoosiers look like a potential bowl eligible squad, and they basically need to pull off one conference upset to get to 3-6 in the league and guarantee six wins.  Their rebuilt defense is looking strong enough to keep them in this game, and if MSU hasn’t snapped out of their funk, the Hoosiers could surprise and move to 4-0.  The last three times IU began 4-0, they made it to a bowl game.

8:00 PM

Stanford at Oregon ABC

This may be the top game of the weekend.  The winner of this game will be the co-contender with Washington and possibly Washington State for the Pac-12 North flag.  Neither team has been exceptionally strong so far, and Stanford’s win over USC lost a lot of its oomph when USC was clobbered by Texas.  The key to this game may be the health of Bryce Love.  Love did not play against UC-Davis after rushing for 136 yards against USC.  Last year, he torched Oregon with 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon’s defense against the run has looked solid this year, while the Ducks’ passing game behind Justin Herbert has been spectacular at times.  The Ducks have had this game circled on their schedule since Spring practice.  The Cardinal have embarrassed the Ducks with consecutive slaughters the last two seasons, and the Ducks will be inspired to shut down Stanford’s running game and force the Cardinal out of their game plan.