Home | Visitor | Spread |
Texas Southern | Fairleigh Dickinson | 1.4 |
Clemson | Morehead St. | 17.0 |
Florida | Central Florida | 4.5 |
Youngstown St. | Oklahoma St. | -6.2 |
North Texas | Alcorn St. | 16.3 |
Cincinnati | Virginia Tech | 4.8 |
Santa Clara | Sam Houston St.. | 1.8 |
Arizona St. | Nevada | -0.1 |
New Mexico | Utah Valley | 5.3 |
Oregon | UC Irvine | 8.8 |
March 15, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 15, 2023
March 12, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology — Final Before Selection Show
Date | Final | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | Purdue | ||
2 | Texas | Arizona | UCLA | Marquette | ||
3 | Baylor | Kansas St. | Gonzaga | Connecticut | ||
4 | Tennessee | Xavier | Indiana | Virginia | ||
5 | Iowa St. | San Diego St. | TCU | Duke | ||
6 | Miami (Fla) | Saint Mary’s | Texas A&M | Creighton | ||
7 | Kentucky | Missouri | Michigan St. | Northwestern | ||
8 | Maryland | Florida Atlantic | Arkansas | Memphis | ||
9 | Illinois | Iowa | West Virginia | Boise St. | ||
10 | Auburn | Penn St. | USC | Utah St. | ||
11 | Providence | N. Carolina St. | Mississippi St. | Rutgers | Pittsburgh | Arizona St. |
12 | Charleston | Oral Roberts | Drake | VCU | ||
13 | Kent St. | Iona | Louisiana | Furman | ||
14 | UC Santa Barbara | Kennesaw St. | Grand Canyon | Colgate | ||
15 | Princeton | Vermont | Montana St. | UNC Asheville | ||
16 | N. Kentucky | Texas A&M-CC | SE Missouri St. | Howard | Fairleigh Dickinson | Texas Southern |
Last 4 Byes: USC, Utah St., Providence, North Carolina St.
Last 4 In (DAYTON FIRST FOUR): Rutgers vs. Arizona St. & Mississippi St. vs. Pittsburgh
#16 First Four: SE Missouri St. vs. Texas Southern & Howard vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
First Four Out (#1 NIT Seeds): Nevada, Oklahoma St., Clemson, Vanderbilt
Next 4 Out (#2 NIT Seeds): North Carolina, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan
March 11, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special
With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.
Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.
Team | NET | COM | SOS | NSOS | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Away | Today |
Arizona St. | 66 | 66 | 62 | 123 | 5-6 | 4-5 | 5-0 | 8-1 | 12-7 | |
Clemson | 57 | 63 | 123 | 312 | 4-4 | 3-2 | 7-2 | 9-2 | 8-9 | |
Mississippi St. | 49 | 50 | 43 | 204 | 4-8 | 4-3 | 5-1 | 8-0 | 9-8 | |
Nevada | 37 | 42 | 24 | 70 | 4-5 | 4-3 | 10-2 | 3-0 | 8-9 | |
North Carolina | 46 | 44 | 12 | 18 | 2-9 | 5-4 | 7-0 | 6-0 | 8-10 | |
North Texas | 38 | 46 | 83 | 112 | 1-3 | 3-2 | 11-1 | 9-1 | 14-5 | |
Oklahoma St. | 43 | 38 | 11 | 158 | 6-12 | 4-2 | 3-1 | 5-0 | 7-10 | |
Oregon | 47 | 40 | 28 | 7 | 2-9 | 7-4 | 5-1 | 5-0 | 6-9 | |
Pittsburgh | 67 | 77 | 86 | 122 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 5-1 | 10-1 | 8-8 | |
Rutgers | 40 | 35 | 48 | 219 | 5-7 | 5-3 | 2-4 | 7-0 | 5-9 | |
UAB | 52 | 54 | 119 | 293 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 9-1 | 12-1 | 10-6 | FAU |
Utah St. | 18 | 18 | 20 | 29 | 2-4 | 9-1 | 13-0 | 1-2 | 12-5 | SDSU |
Vanderbilt | 79 | 79 | 6 | 12 | 5-9 | 5-1 | 5-2 | 5-1 | 8-8 | TXAM |
Wisconsin | 82 | 75 | 36 | 118 | 6-8 | 5-5 | 1-1 | 5-0 | 8-8 |
These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.
Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.
In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.
Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.
If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.
March 10, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 3/10/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | Purdue | ||
2 | UCLA | Texas | Baylor | Arizona | ||
3 | Kansas St. | Gonzaga | Marquette | Tennessee | ||
4 | Connecticut | Xavier | Virginia | Indiana | ||
5 | Iowa St. | Miami (Fla) | San Diego St. | TCU | ||
6 | Saint Mary’s | Creighton | Kentucky | Duke | ||
7 | Texas A&M | Michigan St. | Northwestern | Missouri | ||
8 | Maryland | Illinois | Arkansas | Iowa | ||
9 | Florida Atlantic | Memphis | Auburn | Boise St. | ||
10 | West Virginia | Providence | North Carolina St. | USC | ||
11 | Utah St. | Rutgers | Pittsburgh | Mississippi St. | Penn St. | Arizona St. |
12 | Oral Roberts | Drake | Charleston | VCU | ||
13 | Toledo | Utah Valley | Iona | Yale | ||
14 | Louisiana | Furman | UC Santa Barbara | Colgate | ||
15 | Kennesaw St. | Vermont | UNC Asheville | Montana St. | ||
16 | N. Kentucky | Texas A&M-CC | SE Missouri St. | Grambling | Howard | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Starting Today, First Four Out and Next Four Out give way to the teams that can still work their way into the Field of 68 if they keep winning. There are six teams on the Bubble but not currently in the Bracket Prediction above. Additionally, there is a definite potential bid-stealer.
Teams (In Order) that can still play their way into the Field:
Oklahoma St. |
Clemson |
Oregon |
North Texas |
Vanderbilt |
UAB |
Potential Bid-Stealer: Ohio St.
Potential At-large addition if they lose in their tournament: Florida Atlantic
March 6, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 3/6/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | Purdue | ||
2 | UCLA | Texas | Baylor | Arizona | ||
3 | Marquette | Kansas St. | Tennessee | Gonzaga | ||
4 | Connecticut | Xavier | Indiana | Virginia | ||
5 | San Diego St. | Saint Mary’s | Miami (Fla) | TCU | ||
6 | Iowa St. | Duke | Creighton | Texas A&M | ||
7 | Kentucky | Michigan St. | Northwestern | Maryland | ||
8 | Illinois | Iowa | Missouri | Arkansas | ||
9 | Florida Atlantic | Boise St. | Auburn | Providence | ||
10 | Memphis | West Virginia | North Carolina St. | USC | ||
11 | Pittsburgh | Rutgers | Mississippi St. | Nevada | Wisconsin | Penn St. |
12 | Oral Roberts | VCU | Drake | Hofstra | ||
13 | Utah Valley | Toledo | Iona | Louisiana | ||
14 | Yale | Furman | UC Santa Barbara | Kennesaw St. | ||
15 | Colgate | Vermont | Montana St. | Youngstown St. | ||
16 | UNC Asheville | Texas A&M-CC | SE Missouri St. | Grambling | Howard | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes: North Carolina St., USC, Pittsburgh, Rutgers
Last 4 In: Mississippi St., Nevada, Wisconsin, Penn St.
First 4 Out: Utah St., Arizona St., Oklahoma St., North Carolina
Next 4 Out: Clemson, Michigan, Oregon, Vanderbilt
February 10, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 2/10/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Purdue | Alabama | Houston | Kansas | ||
2 | Arizona | Tennessee | Texas | UCLA | ||
3 | Baylor | Xavier | Kansas St. | Iowa St. | ||
4 | Marquette | Connecticut | Virginia | Gonzaga | ||
5 | TCU | Indiana | Saint Mary’s | Miami (Fla.) | ||
6 | San Diego St. | Rutgers | Illinois | Creighton | ||
7 | Duke | Providence | Auburn | Iowa | ||
8 | West Virginia | Florida Atlanta | Maryland | Arkansas | ||
9 | Missouri | Michigan St. | North Carolina St. | Boise St. | ||
10 | Nevada | New Mexico | Oklahoma St. | Northwestern | ||
11 | Pittsburgh | North Carolina | Memphis | USC | Kentucky | Clemson |
12 | Charleston | Oral Roberts | Liberty | Southern Miss. | ||
13 | VCU | Akron | Drake | Utah Valley | ||
14 | UC Santa Barbara | Princeton | Furman | Colgate | ||
15 | Rider | E. Washington | Vermont | Youngstown St. | ||
16 | UNC Asheville | Texas A&M-CC | MD Eastern Shore | Morehead St. | Alcorn St. | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes: Oklahoma St., Northwestern, Pittsburgh, North Carolina
Last 4 In: Memphis, USC, Kentucky, Clemson
First 4 Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Oregon, Utah St.
Next 4 Out: Mississippi St., Florida, Seton Hall, Arizona St.
February 6, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 2/6/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Houston | Alabama | Purdue | Texas | ||
2 | Tennessee | Kansas | Arizona | UCLA | ||
3 | Baylor | Xavier | Iowa St. | Marquette | ||
4 | Kansas St. | Connecticut | Virginia | Saint Mary’s | ||
5 | Gonzaga | TCU | Indiana | Rutgers | ||
6 | San Diego St. | Miami (Fla) | Illinois | Duke | ||
7 | Creighton | Providence | Auburn | Iowa | ||
8 | Florida Atlantic | Maryland | New Mexico | West Virginia | ||
9 | Missouri | North Carolina St. | Arkansas | USC | ||
10 | Boise St. | Michigan St. | Nevada | Kentucky | ||
11 | Oklahoma St. | North Carolina | Northwestern | Memphis | Pittsburgh | Clemson |
12 | Oral Roberts | Liberty | Southern Miss. | VCU | ||
13 | Hofstra | Utah Valley | Drake | Akron | ||
14 | UC Santa Barbara | Princeton | Furman | Colgate | ||
15 | Rider | E. Washington | Youngstown St. | Vermont | ||
16 | Radford | Northwestern St. | Morehead St. | MD Eastern Shore | Southern | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes
Nevada, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, North Carolina
Last 4 In
Northwestern, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Clemson
First 4 Out
Utah St., Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Wisconsin
Next 4 Out
Mississippi St., Florida, Virginia Tech, Oregon
January 31, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Air Force | Boise St. | -9.0 |
Alabama | Vanderbilt | 16.1 |
Arkansas | Texas A&M | 5.7 |
Boston College | Clemson | -11.4 |
Bowling Green | Ball St. | -2.2 |
Buffalo | Akron | -0.5 |
Colorado St. | UNLV | 0.2 |
Davidson | VCU | -2.1 |
Dayton | Loyola (Chi) | 15.5 |
DePaul | Connecticut | -12.2 |
Duke | Wake Forest | 8.6 |
Eastern Michigan | Ohio | 2.1 |
Fordham | Saint Louis | -3.5 |
Illinois | Nebraska | 12.0 |
Iowa | Northwestern | 5.1 |
Kansas | Kansas St. | 6.2 |
Kent St. | Central Michigan | 18.7 |
Maryland | Indiana | 0.4 |
Miami (Fla) | Virginia Tech | 3.8 |
Miami (O) | Toledo | -9.9 |
Mississippi | Kentucky | -3.8 |
Nevada | San Diego St. | -1.1 |
Quinnipiac | Marist | 13.1 |
South Carolina | Mississippi St. | -10.4 |
TCU | West Virginia | 4.9 |
Western Michigan | Northern Illinois | 2.6 |
Wyoming | Fresno St. | 3.1 |
January 30, 2023
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 1/30/2023 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Purdue | Alabama | Tennessee | Houston | ||
2 | Kansas | Arizona | UCLA | Arizona | ||
3 | Baylor | Kansas St. | Virginia | Iowa St. | ||
4 | Marquette | Xavier | TCU | Gonzaga | ||
5 | Connecticut | Saint Mary’s | Rutgers | Indiana | ||
6 | San Diego St. | Illinois | Providence | Miami (Fla) | ||
7 | Auburn | New Mexico | Duke | North Carolina | ||
8 | Florida Atlantic | Creighton | Missouri | North Carolina St. | ||
9 | Boise St. | Northwestern | Iowa | Michigan St. | ||
10 | Memphis | West Virginia | Arkansas | Maryland | ||
11 | USC | Clemson | Charleston | Nevada | Penn St. | |
12 | Kent St. | Oral Roberts | Liberty | Kentucky | Pittsburgh | |
13 | Louisiana | Saint Louis | Drake | UCSB | ||
14 | Utah Valley | Cornell | Furman | Colgate | ||
15 | Siena | Eastern Washington | Youngstown St. | UNC Asheville | ||
16 | SE Louisiana | Vermont | UT-Martin | MD Eastern Shore | Southern | Fairleigh Dickinson |
Last 4 Byes: Arkansas, Maryland, USC, and Clemson
Last 4 In: Nevada, Penn State, Kentucky, and Pittsburgh
First 4 Out: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Arizona State, and Utah State
Next 4 Out: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech
January 20, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 21, 2023
Home | Visitor | Spread |
Abilene Christian | UT Arlington | 4.9 |
Air Force | San Diego St | -8.0 |
Alabama A&M | Texas Southern | -1.1 |
Alabama St. | Prairie View A&M | -1.7 |
Alcorn St. | Florida A&M | 13.3 |
Arizona | UCLA | -1.2 |
Arizona St. | USC | 3.7 |
Arkansas Pine Bluff | Southern U. | -5.5 |
Arkansas St. | Marshall | -13.3 |
Army | Navy | 2.3 |
Austin Peay | Eastern Kentucky | -2.1 |
Boston U. | Loyola (MD) | 7.4 |
Bowling Green | Miami (O) | 3.9 |
Bradley | Belmont | 6.3 |
Brown | Columbia | 12.9 |
Bucknell | Holy Cross | 7.9 |
Cal Baptist | Tarleton St. | 3.5 |
Cal St. Northridge | Cal St. Fullerton | -6.2 |
Charleston Southern | Campbell | 1.2 |
Chattanooga | East Tennessee St. | 10.0 |
Clemson | Virginia Tech | 2.3 |
Coastal Carolina | South Alabama | -0.9 |
Colgate | American | 9.3 |
Coppin St. | Norfolk St. | -4.4 |
Drexel | Delaware | 4.1 |
Duke | Miami (Fla) | 4.7 |
Duquesne | Fordham | 6.9 |
Eastern Michigan | Northern Illinois | 0.2 |
Elon | Towson | -10.9 |
Evansville | Drake | -13.8 |
Florida Gulf Coast | Kennesaw St. | 3.1 |
Fresno St. | UNLV | -3.5 |
George Washington | Dayton | -7.7 |
Georgia | Vanderbilt | 2.6 |
Georgia Southern | Georgia St. | 2.2 |
Grand Canyon | Utah Valley | 1.7 |
Green Bay | Robert Morris | -8.3 |
Harvard | Cornell | -2.0 |
Houston Christian | Texas A&M-CC | -9.2 |
Howard | Morgan St. | 0.0 |
Idaho St. | Portland St. | 0.4 |
Illinois Chicago | Northern Iowa | -4.8 |
Illinois St. | Valparaiso | 5.9 |
IUPUI | Detroit | -13.4 |
Jackson St. | Bethune-Cookman | 7.6 |
Jacksonville | Queens | 3.6 |
Kansas | TCU | 7.3 |
Kansas St. | Texas Tech | 4.8 |
Kentucky | Texas A&M | 4.9 |
Lamar | Incarnate Word | -0.2 |
Lehigh | Lafayette | 0.7 |
Lindenwood | Morehead St. | -2.4 |
Lipscomb | Bellarmine | 5.2 |
Little Rock | Tennessee St. | -0.8 |
Louisiana Tech | Middle Tennessee | 2.7 |
Loyola (Chi) | St. Bonaventure | -2.3 |
LSU | Tennessee | -12.8 |
McNeese St. | Nicholls St. | -3.8 |
Milwaukee | Youngstown St. | -3.6 |
Mississippi St. | Florida | 0.8 |
Mississippi Valley St. | Grambling | -10.2 |
Missouri | Alabama | -7.3 |
Missouri St. | Southern Illinois | 1.6 |
Monmouth | Hampton | 0.7 |
Montana | Montana St. | -0.6 |
Murray St. | Indiana St. | -1.2 |
New Orleans | Northwestern St. | -5.4 |
North Alabama | Central Arkansas | 5.4 |
North Carolina | North Carolina St. | 4.7 |
North Carolina Central | Delaware St. | 16.2 |
North Dakota | Oral Roberts | -13.2 |
North Dakota St. | UMKC | 3.2 |
North Florida | Liberty | -10.4 |
Northeastern | Charleston | -8.8 |
Northern Arizona | Eastern Washington | -5.2 |
Northern Colorado | Idaho | 4.4 |
Northern Kentucky | Purdue Ft. Wayne | -0.2 |
Northwestern | Wisconsin | 4.0 |
Notre Dame | Boston College | 5.9 |
Ohio | Central Michigan | 10.4 |
Ohio St. | Iowa | 3.0 |
Oklahoma | Baylor | -1.2 |
Oklahoma St. | Iowa St. | -0.1 |
Old Dominion | Appalachian St. | 5.8 |
Pacific | Gonzaga | -16.6 |
Penn St. | Nebraska | 8.0 |
Pittsburgh | Florida St. | 9.8 |
Portland | Pepperdine | 3.5 |
Presbyterian | Longwood | -8.6 |
Princeton | Dartmouth | 13.0 |
Providence | DePaul | 11.4 |
Radford | High Point | 9.1 |
Rhode Island | George Mason | -2.6 |
Saint Joseph’s | Massachusetts | 0.9 |
Saint Louis | La Salle | 14.3 |
Saint Mary’s | Santa Clara | 11.6 |
Sam Houston St. | UT-Rio Grande Valley | 17.2 |
Samford | Western Carolina | 8.1 |
San Francisco | BYU | 0.1 |
Seattle | Southern Utah | 1.3 |
Seton Hall | Marquette | -1.3 |
SIU Edwardsville | Southern Indiana | 5.7 |
South Carolina | Auburn | -14.9 |
South Carolina St. | Maryland Eastern Shore | -2.4 |
South Dakota | Omaha | 3.2 |
South Dakota St. | Denver | 9.3 |
South Florida | Central Florida | -5.5 |
Southeast Missouri | Tennessee Tech | 4.5 |
Southeastern Louisiana | Texas A&M-Commerce | 3.5 |
Southern Miss. | James Madison | -1.3 |
Stanford | Oregon | -1.7 |
Stetson | Jacksonville St. | 8.3 |
Stony Brook | UNC Wilmington | -6.7 |
Texas St. | Louisiana | -2.3 |
Troy | Louisiana Monroe | 10.3 |
Tulsa | Tulane | -8.1 |
UAB | North Texas | 5.1 |
UC Davis | Cal Poly | 9.1 |
UC Riverside | Hawaii | 1.2 |
UC San Diego | Long Beach St. | -3.9 |
UC Santa Barbara | Cal St. Bakersfield | 14.4 |
UMBC | New Hampshire | 6.6 |
UNC Asheville | USC Upstate | 8.7 |
UNC Greensboro | Mercer | 8.5 |
UT Martin | Eastern Illinois | 9.3 |
Utah | Washington | 7.4 |
Utah St. | San Jose St. | 13.2 |
Utah Tech | New Mexico St. | 0.4 |
UTEP | Florida Atlantic | -7.9 |
UTSA | Florida Intl. | -1.4 |
VMI | The Citadel | 0.7 |
Wake Forest | Virginia | -2.9 |
Weber St. | Sacramento St. | 2.6 |
West Virginia | Texas | 0.1 |
Western Illinois | St. Thomas | -0.6 |
Western Kentucky | Charlotte | -0.4 |
Western Michigan | Akron | -7.5 |
William & Mary | North Carolina A&T | 1.2 |
Winthrop | Gardner Webb | -2.2 |
Wright St. | Cleveland St. | 1.3 |
Wyoming | Colorado St. | 0.1 |
Xavier | Georgetown | 19.5 |
Yale | Penn | 7.3 |