PiRate Ratings College Football For September 1-6, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rutgers	Temple	15.6	15.9	14.6
Central Florida	Boise St.	2.1	1.4	3.9
Appalachian St. (n)	East Carolina	5.2	5.7	6.2
North Carolina St.	South Florida	18.5	19.1	18.3
Tennessee	Bowling Green	35.0	33.5	38.3
Minnesota	Ohio St.	-13.5	-12.2	-12.6
Virginia Tech	North Carolina	-5.5	-7.2	-10.8
Wake Forest	Old Dominion	38.6	36.6	38.9
Charlotte	Duke	-9.9	-10.5	-7.3
Northwestern	Michigan St.	4.3	4.8	5.3
Michigan	Western Michigan	15.0	15.5	17.2
Georgia St.	Army	-0.1	-0.6	-0.9
Kansas St. (n)	Stanford	2.6	1.1	1.5
Kentucky	Louisiana-Monroe	33.3	35.3	35.9
Tulane	Oklahoma	-28.5	-27.2	-25.6
Wisconsin	Penn St.	6.5	5.4	5.7
Arkansas	Rice	26.1	25.8	24.2
Oregon	Fresno St.	16.8	16.2	17.2
Maryland	West Virginia	-3.5	-3.5	-3.8
Iowa	Indiana	0.4	-0.4	1.1
Cincinnati	Miami (O)	16.4	18.1	21.9
Navy	Marshall	-0.1	-0.9	-0.8
Miami (Fla.) (n)	Alabama	-13.3	-12.7	-13.7
Pittsburgh	Massachusetts	28.0	29.8	32.6
Missouri	Central Michigan	8.8	10.8	9.7
Mississippi St.	Louisiana Tech	25.8	25.5	27.0
Texas	Louisiana	9.9	9.9	8.2
USC	San Jose St.	18.0	17.3	22.0
Purdue	Oregon St.	1.4	0.7	1.8
Houston	Texas Tech	1.1	-1.3	2.8
Texas St.	Baylor	-13.4	-16.1	-14.6
Ohio U	Syracuse	0.6	3.3	3.9
Auburn	Akron	37.6	38.6	41.5
Illinois	UTSA	7.1	7.2	8.8
Florida	Florida Atlantic	32.4	32.7	32.3
Georgia Tech	Northern Illinois	11.7	14.3	15.2
Clemson (n)	Georgia	-2.3	-1.4	-0.8
South Alabama	Southern Miss.	10.8	8.8	8.6
Texas A&M	Kent St.	28.7	27.4	30.7
UCLA	LSU	4.9	3.5	3.4
Arizona	BYU	-11.0	-10.7	-13.3
California	Nevada	0.3	3.8	3.5
San Diego St.	New Mexico St.	33.1	31.7	35.4
Washington St.	Utah St.	18.7	18.6	18.9
Florida St.	Notre Dame	-2.4	-4.1	-4.7
Ole Miss (n)	Louisville	11.6	11.9	10.0

Note:. Oklahoma vs. Tulane has been moved to Norman, OK.

Home Oklahoma

Visitor Tulane

PiRate 33.5

Mean 32.2

Bias 30.6

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
UAB (n)	Jacksonville St.	18.3
Utah	Weber St.	30.6
UNLV	Eastern Washington	6.7
New Mexico	Houston Baptist	20.0
Florida Int’l.	Long Island	22.4
Ball St.	Western Illinois	26.7
Buffalo	Wagner	37.7
Coastal Carolina	The Citadel	30.6
Tulsa	UC-Davis	26.3
Western Kentucky	UT-Martin	17.7
Arizona St.	Southern Utah	37.7
Eastern Michigan	St. Francis (PA)	29.3
Kansas	South Dakota	14.6
Colorado	Northern Colorado	31.0
Colorado St.	South Dakota St.	7.6
Wyoming	Montana St.	21.4
Hawaii	Portland St.	21.8
Air Force	Lafayette	35.0
Boston College	Colgate	37.6
Connecticut	Holy Cross	7.3
Nebraska	Fordham	25.5
Iowa St.	Northern Iowa	36.7
Liberty	Campbell	26.7
Georgia Southern	Gardner-Webb	28.8
South Carolina	Eastern Illinois	30.4
Middle Tennessee	Monmouth	8.6
Oklahoma St.	Missouri St.	35.0
Memphis	Nicholls	21.6
SMU	Abilene Christian	28.5
Toledo	Norfolk St.	33.4
Arkansas St.	Central Arkansas	15.6
Troy	Southern	25.7
North Texas	Northwestern St.	11.1
Virginia	William & Mary	31.9
Vanderbilt	East Tennessee St.	20.3
TCU	Duquesne	43.9
Washington	Montana	28.8
UTEP	Bethune-Cookman	11.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	130.2
2	Oklahoma	128.1
3	Georgia	125.2
4	Iowa St.	124.8
5	Clemson	122.2
6	Ohio St.	121.9
7	U S C	119.4
8	Florida	118.2
9	Texas A&M	118.1
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Miami (Fla.)	116.9
12	Cincinnati	116.5
13	Auburn	116.1
14	T C U	116.0
15	Wisconsin	115.9
16	Texas	115.6
17	Indiana	115.5
18	Ole Miss	113.3
19	Arizona St.	113.1
20	Oklahoma St.	113.1
21	Penn St.	113.1
22	Iowa	112.8
23	Oregon	112.5
24	West Virginia	112.3
25	L S U	112.1
26	Washington	112.1
27	U C L A	112.0
28	Utah	111.9
29	Notre Dame	110.2
30	Mississippi St.	110.1
31	Arkansas	109.5
32	BYU	109.2
33	Louisiana	109.2
34	Coastal Carolina	108.4
35	Wake Forest	107.7
36	Kentucky	107.4
37	Maryland	107.2
38	Oregon St.	106.9
39	Missouri	106.4
40	Minnesota	106.1
41	NC State	106.1
42	Northwestern	105.8
43	Colorado	105.7
44	Liberty	105.5
45	Virginia Tech	105.3
46	Boston College	105.2
47	Michigan	104.9
48	Baylor	104.5
49	Kansas St.	104.4
50	Tennessee	104.0
51	Boise St.	103.9
52	Purdue	103.7
53	Florida St.	103.5
54	Michigan St.	103.0
55	Stanford	103.0
56	UCF	102.8
57	Virginia	102.7
58	Washington St.	102.5
59	Louisville	102.1
60	Nebraska	102.0
61	Texas Tech	101.9
62	Appalachian St.	101.0
63	South Carolina	100.8
64	San Jose St.	100.8
65	Houston	100.7
66	Pittsburgh	100.2
67	San Diego St.	100.2
68	Tulsa	100.1
69	Army	100.0
70	Miami (Ohio)	99.7
71	Central Michigan	99.7
72	Tulane	99.0
73	Nevada	98.8
74	Wyoming	98.5
75	California	98.4
76	Georgia Tech	98.2
77	Buffalo	98.0
78	Illinois	97.6
79	Ball St.	97.4
80	Fresno St.	96.7
81	Toledo	96.7
82	Air Force	96.5
83	Georgia St.	96.5
84	East Carolina	95.3
85	U A B	95.2
86	SMU	95.0
87	Rutgers	95.0
88	Arizona	94.6
89	U T S A	93.9
90	Hawaii	93.6
91	Ohio	93.5
92	Marshall	93.4
93	Troy	93.4
94	Memphis	93.2
95	Syracuse	92.9
96	Kent St.	91.7
97	Georgia Southern	91.6
98	Eastern Michigan	91.4
99	South Alabama	91.2
100	Western Michigan	91.0
101	USF	90.4
102	Navy	90.3
103	Vanderbilt	90.1
104	Arkansas St.	89.9
105	Duke	89.8
106	Colorado St.	89.0
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Florida Atlantic	87.7
109	Northern Illinois	87.5
110	Rice	87.1
111	Louisiana Tech	86.5
112	Utah St.	85.8
113	New Mexico	85.7
114	Kansas	85.4
115	U N L V	84.9
116	Southern Miss.	84.4
117	Middle Tennessee	83.7
118	Western Kentucky	82.7
119	North Texas	81.7
120	Temple	81.6
121	Akron	79.8
122	Charlotte	79.5
123	Florida Int’l.	79.0
124	U T E P	77.9
125	UL-Monroe	75.6
126	Connecticut	74.3
127	UMass	73.1
128	Old Dominion	71.4
129	Bowling Green	70.8
130	New Mexico St.	67.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	116.3	115.3	118.0	116.5
UCF	102.5	101.2	104.8	102.8
Houston	101.1	99.5	101.6	100.7
Tulsa	100.2	100.3	99.7	100.1
Tulane	98.8	97.5	100.6	99.0
East Carolina	95.3	94.3	96.2	95.3
SMU	94.3	95.4	95.4	95.0
Memphis	92.4	92.8	94.3	93.2
USF	91.0	89.7	90.6	90.4
Navy	90.8	90.0	90.3	90.3
Temple	80.6	82.4	81.9	81.6
AAC Averages	96.7	96.2	97.6	96.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.9	121.5	124.0	122.2
Wake Forest	108.0	106.7	108.3	107.7
NC State	106.5	105.8	105.9	106.1
Boston College	104.7	105.3	105.7	105.2
Florida St.	103.4	103.6	103.5	103.5
Louisville	101.7	101.4	103.2	102.1
Syracuse	93.7	93.1	92.1	92.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.4	116.7	119.9	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	117.1	116.1	117.7	116.9
Virginia Tech	106.4	104.9	104.7	105.3
Virginia	102.1	104.1	101.8	102.7
Pittsburgh	99.8	100.9	100.1	100.2
Georgia Tech	98.0	98.3	98.3	98.2
Duke	89.7	91.2	88.5	89.8
ACC Averages	104.9	105.0	105.3	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	129.3	126.7	128.2	128.1
Iowa St.	125.3	123.5	125.6	124.8
T C U	116.6	115.1	116.3	116.0
Texas	116.7	114.5	115.6	115.6
Oklahoma St.	113.5	113.2	112.5	113.1
West Virginia	113.8	112.0	111.1	112.3
Baylor	104.9	104.8	103.8	104.5
Kansas St.	104.9	104.7	103.5	104.4
Texas Tech	102.0	102.8	100.8	101.9
Kansas	88.1	85.6	82.5	85.4
Big 12 Averages	111.5	110.3	110.0	110.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Indiana	114.9	115.0	116.4	115.5
Penn St.	111.7	112.8	114.6	113.1
Maryland	108.7	106.9	105.8	107.2
Michigan	104.3	105.1	105.3	104.9
Michigan St.	103.5	103.0	102.5	103.0
Rutgers	94.1	96.3	94.5	95.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.2	115.2	117.3	115.9
Iowa	112.3	111.6	114.5	112.8
Minnesota	104.6	106.1	107.6	106.1
Northwestern	105.8	105.8	105.8	105.8
Purdue	103.6	102.9	104.5	103.7
Nebraska	101.7	102.2	102.0	102.0
Illinois	97.1	97.6	98.2	97.6
Big Ten Averages	107.0	107.3	108.0	107.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	78.1	79.1	76.3	77.9
CUSA Averages	84.3	84.9	84.5	84.6
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.8	110.6	111.2	110.2
BYU	109.2	108.2	110.3	109.2
Liberty	104.3	105.6	106.5	105.5
Army	100.0	99.8	100.2	100.0
Connecticut	74.9	76.1	72.0	74.3
UMass	74.8	74.0	70.5	73.1
New Mexico St.	68.5	69.2	65.7	67.8
Indep. Averages	91.5	91.9	90.9	91.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	101.9	99.2	98.1	99.7
Buffalo	98.5	97.5	97.9	98.0
Ohio	92.2	94.4	94.0	93.5
Kent St.	91.3	93.4	90.5	91.7
Akron	81.8	79.6	78.1	79.8
Bowling Green	71.6	72.1	68.8	70.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.5	99.1	99.5	99.7
Ball St.	98.4	98.3	95.5	97.4
Toledo	97.5	96.7	95.8	96.7
Eastern Michigan	93.1	91.2	89.8	91.4
Western Michigan	91.2	91.6	90.1	91.0
Northern Illinois	89.3	87.0	86.1	87.5
MAC Averages	92.3	91.7	90.4	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.9	103.3	104.3	103.9
Wyoming	97.7	98.4	99.5	98.5
Air Force	96.4	96.3	96.9	96.5
Colorado St.	88.8	88.8	89.3	89.0
Utah St.	85.6	86.6	85.2	85.8
New Mexico	85.8	86.2	85.2	85.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	101.3	101.6	99.5	100.8
San Diego St.	100.6	99.9	100.2	100.2
Nevada	98.4	99.7	98.4	98.8
Fresno St.	95.2	97.2	97.9	96.7
Hawaii	93.9	93.2	93.6	93.6
U N L V	85.8	84.3	84.6	84.9
MWC Averages	94.4	94.6	94.5	94.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.0	112.4	114.1	112.5
Washington	110.9	112.4	112.9	112.1
Oregon St.	106.7	106.7	107.3	106.9
Stanford	102.6	103.9	102.4	103.0
Washington St.	102.3	103.2	102.1	102.5
California	95.7	100.5	99.0	98.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	118.8	118.4	120.9	119.4
Arizona St.	112.4	113.5	113.6	113.1
U C L A	111.9	111.9	112.2	112.0
Utah	111.8	112.1	111.8	111.9
Colorado	106.4	105.8	104.9	105.7
Arizona	95.2	94.5	94.0	94.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	107.9	107.9	107.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	124.8	124.5	126.3	125.2
Florida	117.0	119.4	118.1	118.2
Kentucky	106.7	108.8	106.8	107.4
Missouri	106.2	106.9	106.2	106.4
Tennessee	104.1	103.1	104.6	104.0
South Carolina	101.1	101.0	100.4	100.8
Vanderbilt	90.9	89.9	89.6	90.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.4	128.8	131.3	130.2
Texas A&M	117.4	118.3	118.6	118.1
Auburn	116.4	115.2	116.6	116.1
Ole Miss	113.3	113.3	113.2	113.3
L S U	111.0	112.4	112.8	112.1
Mississippi St.	110.2	110.4	109.7	110.1
Arkansas	110.1	109.9	108.5	109.5
SEC Averages	111.4	111.6	111.6	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.2	106.4	109.6	108.4
Appalachian St.	100.5	100.0	102.5	101.0
Georgia St.	97.0	96.2	96.3	96.5
Troy	93.1	93.4	93.7	93.4
Georgia Southern	91.7	92.1	91.2	91.6
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.8	107.6	110.4	109.2
South Alabama	91.6	91.5	90.6	91.2
Arkansas St.	89.8	91.0	88.8	89.9
Texas St.	89.4	86.7	87.2	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.4	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.8	94.1	94.4	94.5

Rating of Conferences

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.5
2	Big 12	110.6
3	Pac-12	107.7
4	Big Ten	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Mountain West	94.5
8	Sun Belt	94.5
9	Independents	91.5
10	Mid-American	91.4
11	Conference USA	84.6

Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

The Atlantic Coast Conference benefitted from Covid by gaining an extra playoff team last year.  With Notre Dame choosing to become a full member for the season, and then with the Irish running the table, topping Clemson, while Clemson won all its remaining games, when the Tigers took the rematch in the ACC Championship Game, it opened the door for two ACC teams to make the playoffs.  

Unfortunately for the league, Clemson was bombed by Ohio State and Notre Dame had no chance against Alabama in the semifinal round, as the two teams lost by a combined 38 points.

2021 should be back to normal for the league, but who knows if this will be the last time the 14 teams are together in one league, as of this writing, rumors are running rampant about a possible alliance between the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12, and other rumors have claimed that Clemson and Florida State would like to become members of the SEC.

At the ACC Preseason Meetings, the media voted their predictions for the 2021-2022 season.

Atlantic Division

(First-place votes in parenthesis)

1. Clemson – 1,028 (146)

2. NC State – 804 (1)

3. Boston College – 638

4. Florida State – 510

5. Wake Forest – 472

6. Louisville – 462

7. Syracuse – 202

Coastal Division

(First-place votes in parenthesis)

1. North Carolina – 979 (109)

2. Miami – 881 (28)

3. Virginia Tech – 582 (3)

4. Pitt – 576 (1)

5. Virginia – 540 (2)

6. Georgia Tech – 340 (4)

7. Duke – 218

Overall Champion

Clemson – 125

North Carolina – 16

Miami – 3

Virginia – 1

Georgia Tech – 1

NC State – 1

Clemson doesn’t rebuild; the Tigers reload with the next round of 4-star and 5-star talent.  Losing once in a generation quarterback Trevor Lawrence is not a reloadable possibility.  D.J. Ulagalelei is a brute force that could play tight end or linebacker.  He just happens to have an accurate arm and the intelligence to know where to throw the ball.  While he won’t put up Lawrence numbers, especially on the ground, he can lead Clemson back to the playoffs again.  Finding capable receivers will be a tougher task, but tight end Braden Galloway gives CU a big target in the middle of the field.

Coach Dabo Swinney has 10 defensive starters coming back this year, and one or two might lose starting status to even better players.  This should be the best defense in all of college football, led by one of the best defensive lines in many years.  Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy could easily make the 1st team All-American team.

Clemson also rates highly in its kicking games, as punter Will Spiers carried a 44 yard average, and placekicker B.T. Potter nailed a couple of 50-yard plus field goals and hit on 18 of 23 overall.

Clemson gets its toughest task in the regular season right off the bat, when they face Georgia in Charlotte on September 4.  If they get past their old rival, there’s no reason to think they cannot go undefeated until the Playoffs.

The race for second place in the Atlantic Division is wide open.  Five of the remaining six teams in the division could finish in second place.

Wake Forest had an outstanding offense and weak defense last year going 4-4 in the regular season before losing to Wisconsin in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.  An offense that scored 36 points per game and racked up 444 yards per game merely returns every starter this year and welcomes some fine new talent.  Coach Dave Clawson has this team flying under the radar.  Due to unfortunate injuries the last two seasons, there is loads of depth on board, and the Demon Deacons need only a slight improvement on the defensive side to contend for nine or ten wins.

North Carolina State didn’t play Clemson last year due to a Covid cancellation, and the Wolfpack didn’t play Notre Dame.  Their 8-4 record was helped by playing Duke, Syracuse, and Florida State.  This year, the Wolfpack have a better roster on both sides of the ball, and another 8-win season is quite possible, even with Clemson returning to the schedule.

Coach Dave Doeren must hope that quarterback Devin Leary can return from a season-ending leg injury and be the pre-injury passer he was in 2020, when he completed 60% of his passes for an average of 13.5 yards per completion.  Leary has three talented receivers coming back that combined for 118 receptions for 1,744 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Leary will have good protection as four offensive linemen starters are back.

The Wolfpack need to be a little stingier against the pass this year if they are to contend for second place in the Atlantic.  After giving up more than 240 passing yards and 415 total yards in 2020, NC State will have new defensive backs in the starting 11.

Jeff Hafley came to Boston College after producing a couple of outstanding defenses at Ohio State.  He took over a BC program that was falling back in the pack and in one year, he made the Eagles a tough out in the ACC.  While BC went 5-5 in the league and 6-5 overall, they lost to North Carolina by four, Clemson by six, Notre Dame by 14, and Virginia by 11.  

Hafley has a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball, and in year two in Chestnut Hill, we expect the Eagles to earn a bowl bid and be in the hunt for an eight-win season.  By 2022, this team might be ready to compete for a division title.

Mike Norvell’s first season at Florida State would have been unforgettable if he hadn’t made headlines a couple of times.  A 3-6 included just one impressive win.  After losing to a Georgia Tech team still trying to transition to a pro-style offense from the triple option, the Seminoles were embarrassed by in-state rival Miami by six touchdowns.  Additional lopsided losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville showed the fans just how far this program had fallen since Jimbo Fisher left for Texas A&M.

FSU may have benefitted the most from the Transfer Portal, as Norvell picks up several players that should become starters.  The only thing in the way of a winning season this year may be the schedule, as the Seminoles play Notre Dame and Florida out of conference as well as North Carolina and Miami from the Coastal Division.

Louisville took a step back in Scott Satterfield’s second year after going 8-5 in 2019.  He also antagonized fans and maybe the administration by lobbying for the South Carolina job that he did not get.  This program is one to watch to see if Satterfield still owns the locker room.  If not, UL may be headed for trouble.  The Cardinals have lost some key players to transfer in the past couple of years too, so this may be the do or die season for Satterfield.  If he can work the same magic he worked at Appy State, UL might turn things around, but it’s not a guarantee.

Syracuse went 10-3 in 2018, and Coach Dino Babers appeared to be the second coming of Mike Leach.  Since then, the Orange are 6-17.  Last year, the Air Raid offense never took off.  Scoring just 17.8 points per game and totaling just 265 total yards per game, third weakest in the nation.  The squad is much more experienced this year, but SU doesn’t look like a team capable of coming out of the basement.

The Coastal Division has a clear-cut favorite for the first time in many years, but it isn’t a slam dunk like the Atlantic Division.

North Carolina went 11-1 in 1997 and finished sixth in the polls in Coach Mack Brown’s last season during his first tenure in Chapel Hill.  The Tar Heels have not finished in the top ten since.  However, they made it back to the top ten after starting the 2020 season 3-0.  When a team with a great coach coming off a decent year returns one of the top five quarterbacks in the nation plus the entire offensive line, it is a good bet that this team will light up the scoreboard.  UNC averaged 42 points per game last year.  Is it possible, the Tar Heels could approach 50 points per game this year?  It isn’t impossible, and if they do score 50 points per game, QB Sam Howell will be invited to New York in December.  Only a defense that had some issues with the pass last year could prevent North Carolina from competing for the ACC Championship.  Clemson should be able to outscore them in a potential conference championship game.

Miami of Florida will be there waiting to replace North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game if the Tar Heels’ defense isn’t up to the task.  The Hurricanes’ defense will be strong enough to make Manny Diaz’s third team a big winner in Coral Gables.  With quarterback D’Eriq King returning after proving to be a dual threat in the new spread offense, Miami should score a few more points per game than they did last year.  

The Hurricanes get the optimum test to open the season, as they face defending national champion Alabama in Atlanta.  Nick Saban won’t allow his team to overlook Miami, but even so, Miami might scare the Crimson Tide for a quarter or two.

After the top two in the Coastal, there is a major dropoff to the next tier.  Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Pittsburgh are fairly evenly matched, and they are likely to split the games between them while losing to the two heavyweights.  

Justin Fuente has been at Virginia Tech for five years and owns a 38-26 record in Blacksburg.  He is on a very hot seat after going 5-6 last year.  We will note that legendary coach Frank Beamer was 22-32-1 in his first five years.

Virginia Tech must rebuild on offense, which was the strongpoint of the season last year.  The Hokies lost starting quarterback Hendon Hooker via the Transfer Portal and star running back Khalil Herbert to the NFL.  It looks like 2021 will be the decisive year in Blacksburg for Fuente.  If the Hokies go 6-6 or 7-5, it might not be enough for him to keep this job.

Virginia won the Coastal Division title in a small surprise in 2019, but Covid ruined the Cavaliers’ ability to play consistently last year, and they fell to 4-5 in the league.  Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavs did enjoy a four-game winning streak in late October and November, including wins over North Carolina and Boston College.

Quarterback Brennan Armstrong also led the team in rushing last year; he played behind an inexperienced line and didn’t have a go-to running back last year.  Armstrong will have to wait until November for his best target to be available.  Wideout Lavel Davis Jr. is rehabbing from an ACL injury suffered in Spring practice.  Davis averaged 25.8 yards per catch last year after scoring two touchdowns on four receptions in his college debut against Duke.  A healthy Davis could be the difference in the final two games of the season against the other two teams in this tier in the Coastal Division.

Every year, the PiRate Ratings don’t seem to give Pat Narduzzi’s Pittsburgh Panthers a lot of respect.  While the ratings are based on certain data, there must be something Narduzzi and his coaching staff do to produce a product that is greater than the sum of its parts.  Once again, the Panthers’ are looking at a mediocre start to their season, but this year the first four games are all winnable, and three of the four are basically sure things.  Playing Syracuse from the Atlantic, as well as the expected bottom tier teams in the Coastal gives Pitt a chance to win three or four conference games and make a small bowl.

Pitt plays an old style of football.  Their defense leads the way, while their offense is pedestrian but makes fewer mistakes than a wide open offense.  Last year, Pitt led the ACC in rushing yards allowed and finished second in total yards allowed, but offensively the Panthers finished near the bottom.

Things might be a bit different in 2021 as quarterback Kenny Pickett is a fifth year senior and has gotten better every year.  Having star receiver Jordan Addison return with him means the Panthers should see improved numbers in the passing game.  Unfortunately, Pitt lost their starting defensive ends from last year, two players that combined for 16 ½ sacks and 27 ½ tackles for loss.  The Panthers still have a talented trio of starting linebackers, including Cam Bright, who had 8 ½ sacks last year.

Duke suffered through a miserable 2020 season that saw the Blue Devils go 1-9 in league play and 2-9 overall.  2021 doesn’t look to be very promising, as the Blue Devils lost more experience than any team in the league.  The offense led the nation in turnovers, and even though the former quarterback responsible for 21 of those 39 has transferred out of the program, Duke might commit fewer turnovers this year but gain many fewer yards with a junior who threw 25 passes last year, mostly of the three and four yard variety.  Additionally, the offensive line must be rebuilt, and rather than suffer through fumbles and interceptions, sacks might be the new liability this year.

Coach David Cutcliffe must also rebuild his defense, but there’s nowhere to go but up, after Duke finished last in the league in scoring defense.  The only reason why the Blue Devils didn’t give up the most total yards is that opponents found it easy to run the ball against them.  Duke finished dead last in rushing defense, so opponents didn’t throw the ball as often as they did against other teams.

Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the ACC:

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.9	121.5	124.0	122.2
Wake Forest	108.0	106.7	108.3	107.7
NC State	106.5	105.8	105.9	106.1
Boston College	104.7	105.3	105.7	105.2
Florida St.	103.4	103.6	103.5	103.5
Louisville	101.7	101.4	103.2	102.1
Syracuse	93.7	93.1	92.1	92.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.4	116.7	119.9	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	117.1	116.1	117.7	116.9
Virginia Tech	106.4	104.9	104.7	105.3
Virginia	102.1	104.1	101.8	102.7
Pittsburgh	99.8	100.9	100.1	100.2
Georgia Tech	98.0	98.3	98.3	98.2
Duke	89.7	91.2	88.5	89.8
ACC Averages	104.9	105.0	105.3	105.0

The PiRate Ratings are designed to be effective for the next week’s slate of games and not to be used to look forward.  Nevertheless, we predict the won-loss records just for fun.

Atlantic Coast Atlantic	Conf.	Overall
Clemson	8-0	12-1*
Boston College	5-3	9-3
Wake Forest	5-3	8-4
North Carolina St.	4-4	7-5
Louisville	4-4	6-6
Florida St.	3-5	5-7
Syracuse	0-8	2-10
Atlantic Coast Coastal	Conf.	Overall
North Carolina	7-1	11-2
Miami (Fla.)	7-1	10-2
Virginia Tech	4-4	6-6
Pittsburgh	3-5	6-6
Virginia	3-5	5-7
Georgia Tech	2-6	4-8
Duke	1-7	4-8
* Clemson picked to win ACC Championship Game

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
La Salle	Saint Joseph’s	0.6
George Washington	Fordham	4.3
Tulane	Wichita St.	-4.5
Syracuse	Clemson	0.8
Notre Dame	NC St.	2.4
Florida St.	Boston College	14.9
Seton Hall	Connecticut	0.2
St. John’s	Providence	2.6
Villanova	Creighton	1.6
Eastern Washington	Idaho St.	13.7
Penn St.	Minnesota	3.1
Northwestern	Maryland	-2.6
North Carolina A&T	South Carolina St.	12.0
North Carolina Central	Florida A&M	0.4
Colorado St.	New Mexico	18.8
UNLV	San Diego St.	-12.3
Wagner	Merrimack	6.1
Belmont	SIU Edwardsville	16.4
Morehead St.	Southeast Missouri St.	8.7
Utah	Oregon St.	3.8
Oregon	UCLA	2.4
USC	Stanford	7.7
Boston U	Lehigh	7.2
Florida	Missouri	4.9
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	-3.7
Sam Houston St.	Texas A&M-CC	14.7
New Orleans	Northwestern St.	3.0
Houston Baptist	Incarnate Word	0.4
Central Arkansas	Southeast Louisiana	1.5
Stephen F. Austin	Abilene Christian	-3.1

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Davidson	St. Bonaventure	-1.0
George Mason	George Washington	6.5
Saint Joseph’s	Dayton	-8.8
La Salle	Duquesne	-4.3
South Florida	Temple	3.8
Memphis	Tulane	11.7
Tulsa	Cincinnati	1.2
Wake Forest	Clemson	-6.0
Virginia	NC St.	8.7
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.	-12.5
North Carolina	Marquette	8.9
Butler	Seton Hall	-6.7
Creighton	DePaul	13.6
Providence	Xavier	-0.8
Southern Utah	Northern Arizona	11.8
Longwood	Hampton	8.8
Rutgers	Indiana	3.1
Ball St.	Kent St.	-4.6
UNC Central	North Carolina A&T	2.8
Norfolk St	Delaware St.	14.2
Air Force	New Mexico	0.1
UNLV	Fresno St.	5.8
Boston University	Holy Cross	5.4
Loyola (MD)	American	3.6
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	3.5
Arkansas	Alabama	-2.0
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	-6.8
Furman	The Citadel	12.8
Mercer	Chattanooga	2.5
UNCG	Western Carolina	11.9
Northwestern St.	Stephen F. Austin	-7.4
SE Louisiana	McNeese	4.2
Texas A&M-CC	New Orleans	-0.4
Nicholls	Houston Baptist	10.5
Incarnate Word	Lamar	4.5
Abilene Christian	Sam Houston St.	8.1
Southern	Alabama A&M	6.4
Alcorn St.	Alabama St.	5.7

PiRate Ratings 2020-2021 Final College Football Rankings

#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Oklahoma
5	Georgia
6	Texas A&M
7	Iowa St.
8	Notre Dame
9	Iowa
10	Texas
11	Florida
12	Wisconsin
13	BYU
14	Cincinnati
15	Oklahoma St.
16	Indiana
17	U S C
18	Oregon
19	N. Carolina
20	Northwestern
21	Auburn
22	L S U
23	Penn St.
24	T C U
25	Miami (Fla.)
26	UCF
27	Arizona St.
28	Kentucky
29	Utah
30	Ole Miss
31	Washington
32	Minnesota
33	U C L A
34	Coastal Car.
35	Louisville
36	Pittsburgh
37	Miss. St.
38	Tennessee
39	Nebraska
40	Louisiana
41	Michigan
42	Wake Forest
43	California
44	Buffalo
45	W. Virginia
46	Virginia
47	Virginia Tech
48	Missouri
49	Tulane
50	Boise St.
51	Stanford
52	Boston Coll.
53	Tulsa
54	Memphis
55	Appal. St.
56	Purdue
57	Oregon St.
58	Arkansas
59	Washington St.
60	Baylor
61	Liberty
62	NC State
63	Houston
64	Air Force
65	Colorado
66	San Jose St.
67	Illinois
68	Kansas St.
69	Rutgers
70	SMU
71	S. Carolina
72	Ball St.
73	Michigan St.
74	San Diego St.
75	Texas Tech
76	Nevada
77	Marshall
78	Florida St.
79	U A B
80	Wyoming
81	Army
82	Georgia Sou.
83	Georgia Tech
84	Hawaii
85	E. Carolina
86	Maryland
87	Ohio
88	Arizona
89	Fresno St.
90	Western Mich.
91	Georgia St.
92	Toledo
93	Troy
94	Central Mich.
95	Miami (O)
96	Navy
97	W. Kentucky
98	Kent St.
99	Syracuse
100	Duke
101	Colorado St.
102	Vanderbilt
103	Arkansas St.
104	Temple
105	Rice
106	USF
107	Fla. Atlantic
108	New Mexico
109	Florida Int’l.
110	U T S A
111	Eastern Mich.
112	Utah St.
113	La. Tech
114	Charlotte
115	Middle Tenn.
116	Southern Miss.
117	S. Alabama
118	N. Illinois
119	Texas St.
120	U N L V
121	Kansas
122	North Texas
123	U T E P
124	Akron
125	UL-Monroe
126	Bowling Green
127	Mass.

PiRate Ratings College Football For The Playoffs and Bowls

Spreads for Bowls and Playoff Semifinals

Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Dec. 21	Myrtle Beach
Appalachian St.	North Texas	28.0	27.3	28.7
Dec. 22	Idaho Potato
Tulane	Nevada	9.1	8.2	8.2
Dec 22	Boca Raton
Central Florida	BYU	-3.3	-3.2	-3.2
Dec 23	New Orleans
Louisiana Tech	Georgia Southern	-8.6	-8.8	-8.8
Dec 23	Montgomery
Memphis	Florida Atlantic	18.5	16.4	16.4
Dec 24	New Mexico
Houston	Hawaii	10.6	8.9	10.2
Dec 25	Camellia
Marshall	Buffalo	-6.3	-7.0	-7.5
Dec 26	Gasparilla
South Carolina	UAB	3.6	1.4	3.2
Dec 26	Cure
Coastal Carolina	Liberty	7.0	4.6	6.9
Dec 26	First Responder
UTSA	Louisiana	-20.5	-19.7	-19.9
Dec 26	LendingTree
Western Ky.	Georgia St.	-0.6	-0.4	-1.5
Dec 29	Cheez-It
Miami (Fla.)	Oklahoma St.	-2.7	0.5	-1.3
Dec 29	Alamo
Texas	Colorado	17.0	15.0	18.1
Dec 30	Duke’s Mayo
Wake Forest	Wisconsin	-13.7	-11.2	-13.9
Dec 30	Music City
Iowa	Missouri	15.6	15.7	16.7
Dec 30	Cotton
Oklahoma	Florida	-1.2	-1.2	-1.6
Dec 31	Armed Forces
Tulsa	Mississippi St.	-1.0	-1.6	-2.7
Dec 31	Liberty
Army (replaces Tenn.)	West Va.	-10.0	-8.2	-10.0
Dec 31	Arizona
Ball St.	San Jose St.	-1.6	-3.3	-1.9
Dec 31	Texas
TCU	Arkansas	8.3	6.6	8.6
Jan 1	Peach
Georgia	Cincinnati	7.8	7.7	8.8
Jan 1	Citrus
Auburn	Northwestern	3.3	2.4	0.7
Jan 1	Rose *
Alabama	Notre Dame	17.0	17.9	19.0
Jan 1	Sugar
Clemson	Ohio St.	0.0	1.7	0.2
Jan 2	Gator
N.C. State	Kentucky	-7.7	-7.0	-8.3
Jan 2	Outback
Ole Miss	Indiana	-8.0	-9.4	-10.3
Jan 2	Fiesta
Oregon	Iowa St.	-3.4	-4.2	-4.1
Jan 2	Orange
Texas A&M	North Carolina	2.1	2.1	2.5

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Alabama	139.5	140.2	141.5	140.4	SEC-W
2	Clemson	131.1	131.9	133.3	132.1	ACC
3	Ohio St.	131.1	130.2	133.2	131.5	BTen-E
4	Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	SEC-E
5	Florida	123.1	122.8	124.0	123.3	SEC-E
6	Notre Dame	122.5	122.3	122.5	122.4	ACC
7	Texas A&M	121.9	122.0	122.8	122.2	SEC-W
8	Oklahoma	121.9	121.5	122.3	121.9	B12
9	Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	BTen-W
10	Iowa St.	120.2	119.4	120.4	120.0	B12
11	N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	ACC
12	Wisconsin	118.9	117.2	120.0	118.7	BTen-W
13	Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	BTen-E
14	Cincinnati	118.1	117.4	118.0	117.8	AAC
15	Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	B12
16	U S C	117.3	114.7	116.3	116.1	P12-S
17	Oregon	116.8	115.2	116.3	116.1	P12-N
18	Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	SEC-W
19	BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	Ind.
20	L S U	114.2	113.4	115.1	114.2	SEC-W
21	Penn St.	114.3	113.1	115.1	114.2	BTen-E
22	Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	B12
23	Northwestern	112.2	112.3	114.9	113.2	BTen-W
24	Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	ACC
25	UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	AAC
26	T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	B12
27	Arizona St.	110.2	109.7	110.0	109.9	P12-S
28	Utah	109.3	109.4	110.2	109.6	P12-S
29	Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	SEC-E
30	Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	P12-N
31	Ole Miss	109.1	108.1	109.3	108.8	SEC-W
32	Minnesota	107.5	108.0	109.2	108.2	BTen-W
33	Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	SUN-E
34	U C L A	108.0	106.9	107.0	107.3	P12-S
35	Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	ACC
36	Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	ACC
37	Tennessee	106.0	105.3	105.9	105.7	SEC-E
38	Miss. St.	105.6	105.0	106.2	105.6	SEC-W
39	Nebraska	105.2	104.7	106.5	105.5	BTen-W
40	Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	BTen-E
41	Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	SUN-W
42	Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	ACC
43	California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	P12-N
44	Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	ACC
45	Buffalo	104.3	105.2	104.9	104.8	MAC-E
46	W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	B12
47	Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	ACC
48	Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	AAC
49	Missouri	104.1	103.7	104.7	104.2	SEC-E
50	Boise St.	104.2	104.2	103.8	104.1	MWC-M
51	Stanford	104.6	103.1	104.4	104.0	P12-N
52	Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	ACC
53	Tulsa	104.6	103.4	103.5	103.8	AAC
54	Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	BTen-W
55	Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	AAC
56	Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	SUN-E
57	Oregon St.	103.0	102.6	102.0	102.5	P12-N
58	Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	SEC-W
59	Washington St.	102.6	101.2	102.9	102.2	P12-N
60	Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	B12
61	NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	ACC
62	Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	AAC
63	Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	Ind.
64	Air Force	100.9	101.6	100.7	101.1	MWC-M
65	Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	P12-S
66	San Jose St.	99.9	101.6	100.5	100.7	MWC-W
67	Illinois	100.4	99.7	101.1	100.4	BTen-W
68	Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	B12
69	Rutgers	100.4	99.4	99.8	99.9	BTen-E
70	SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	AAC
71	S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	SEC-E
72	Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	BTen-E
73	San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	MWC-W
74	Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	B12
75	Ball St.	98.2	98.3	98.6	98.4	MAC-W
76	Marshall	98.0	98.2	97.4	97.8	CUSA-E
77	Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	ACC
78	U A B	96.9	97.4	96.5	96.9	CUSA-W
79	Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	MWC-M
80	Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	MWC-W
81	Army	94.7	96.1	94.9	95.3	Ind.
82	Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	ACC
83	E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	AAC
84	Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	BTen-E
85	Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	MAC-E
86	Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	P12-S
87	Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	SUN-E
88	Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	MWC-W
89	Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	MWC-W
90	Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	MAC-W
91	Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	MAC-W
92	Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	SUN-E
93	Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	MAC-W
94	Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	SUN-E
95	Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	MAC-E
96	Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	AAC
97	W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	CUSA-E
98	Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	MAC-E
99	Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	ACC
100	Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	ACC
101	Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	MWC-M
102	Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	SEC-E
103	Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	SUN-W
104	Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	AAC
105	Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	CUSA-W
106	USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	AAC
107	Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	CUSA-E
108	New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	MWC-M
109	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	CUSA-E
110	U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	CUSA-W
111	Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	MAC-W
112	Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	MWC-M
113	La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	CUSA-W
114	Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	CUSA-E
115	Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	CUSA-E
116	Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	CUSA-W
117	S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	SUN-W
118	N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	MAC-W
119	Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	SUN-W
120	U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	MWC-W
121	Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	B12
122	North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	CUSA-W
123	U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	CUSA-W
124	Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	MAC-E
125	UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	SUN-W
126	Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	MAC-E
127	Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
Cincinnati	118.1	117.4	118.0	117.8	6-0	9-0
UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	5-3	6-3
Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	3-5	6-5
Tulsa	104.6	103.4	103.5	103.8	6-0	6-2
Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	5-3	7-3
Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	3-3	3-4
SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	4-3	7-3
E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	3-4	3-6
Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	3-4	3-7
Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	1-6	1-6
USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	0-7	1-8
AAC Avg.	100.7	100.0	99.7	100.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	131.1	131.9	133.3	132.1	8-1	10-1
Notre Dame	122.5	122.3	122.5	122.4	9-0	10-1
N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	7-3	8-3
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	7-2	8-2
Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	3-7	4-7
Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	5-5	6-5
Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	3-4	4-4
Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	4-5	5-5
Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	5-5	5-6
Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	5-5	6-5
NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	7-3	8-3
Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	2-6	3-6
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	3-6	3-7
Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	1-9	1-10
Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	1-9	2-9
ACC Avg.	106.0	106.3	106.2	106.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.9	121.5	122.3	121.9	6-2	8-2
Iowa St.	120.2	119.4	120.4	120.0	8-1	8-3
Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	5-3	6-3
Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	6-3	7-3
T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	5-4	6-4
W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	4-4	5-4
Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	2-7	2-7
Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	4-5	4-6
Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	3-6	4-6
Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	0-8	0-9
Big 12 Avg.	106.9	106.1	106.8	106.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	131.1	130.2	133.2	131.5	5-0	6-0
Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	6-1	6-1
Penn St.	114.3	113.1	115.1	114.2	4-5	4-5
Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	2-4	2-4
Rutgers	100.4	99.4	99.8	99.9	3-6	3-6
Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	2-5	2-5
Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	2-3	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	6-2	6-2
Wisconsin	118.9	117.2	120.0	118.7	3-3	3-3
Northwestern	112.2	112.3	114.9	113.2	6-1	6-2
Minnesota	107.5	108.0	109.2	108.2	3-4	3-4
Nebraska	105.2	104.7	106.5	105.5	3-5	3-5
Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	2-4	2-4
Illinois	100.4	99.7	101.1	100.4	2-6	2-6
Big Ten Avg.	109.3	108.8	110.4	109.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	98.0	98.2	97.4	97.8	4-1	7-2
W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	4-3	5-6
Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	4-2	5-3
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	0-3	0-5
Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	2-2	2-4
Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	2-4	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
U A B	96.9	97.4	96.5	96.9	3-1	6-3
Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	2-3	2-3
U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	5-2	7-4
La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	4-2	5-4
Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	2-4	3-7
North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	3-4	4-5
U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	0-4	3-5
CUSA Avg.	85.1	85.4	84.8	85.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	x	10-1
Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	x	9-1
Army	94.7	96.1	94.9	95.3	x	9-2
Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	x	0-4
Ind. Avg.	92.8	95.3	92.6	93.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Buffalo	104.3	105.2	104.9	104.8	5-0	5-1
Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	2-1	2-1
Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	2-1	2-1
Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	3-1	3-1
Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	1-5	1-5
Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	0-5	0-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Ball St.	98.2	98.3	98.6	98.4	5-1	6-1
Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	4-2	4-2
Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	4-2	4-2
Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	3-3	3-3
Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	2-4	2-4
N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	0-6	0-6
MAC Avg.	87.8	88.5	87.6	88.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Boise St.	104.2	104.2	103.8	104.1	5-0	5-2
Air Force	100.9	101.6	100.7	101.1	2-2	3-3
Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	2-4	2-4
Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	1-3	1-3
New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	2-5	2-5
Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	1-5	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
San Jose St.	99.9	101.6	100.5	100.7	6-0	7-0
San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	4-2	4-4
Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	6-2	6-2
Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	3-3	3-3
Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	4-4	4-4
U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	0-6	0-6
MWC Avg.	93.3	94.0	93.1	93.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Oregon	116.8	115.2	116.3	116.1	3-2	4-2
Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	3-1	3-1
California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	1-3	1-3
Stanford	104.6	103.1	104.4	104.0	4-2	4-2
Oregon St.	103.0	102.6	102.0	102.5	2-5	2-5
Washington St.	102.6	101.2	102.9	102.2	1-3	1-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
U S C	117.3	114.7	116.3	116.1	5-0	5-1
Arizona St.	110.2	109.7	110.0	109.9	2-2	2-2
Utah	109.3	109.4	110.2	109.6	3-2	3-2
U C L A	108.0	106.9	107.0	107.3	3-4	3-4
Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	3-1	4-1
Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	0-5	0-5
P12 Avg.	106.8	105.8	106.4	106.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	7-2	7-2
Florida	123.1	122.8	124.0	123.3	8-2	8-3
Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	4-6	4-6
Tennessee	106.0	105.3	105.9	105.7	3-7	3-7
Missouri	104.1	103.7	104.7	104.2	5-5	5-5
S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	2-8	2-8
Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	0-9	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Alabama	139.5	140.2	141.5	140.4	10-0	11-0
Texas A&M	121.9	122.0	122.8	122.2	8-1	8-1
Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	6-4	6-4
L S U	114.2	113.4	115.1	114.2	5-5	5-5
Ole Miss	109.1	108.1	109.3	108.8	4-5	4-5
Miss. St.	105.6	105.0	106.2	105.6	3-7	3-7
Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	3-7	3-7
SEC Avg.	111.7	111.2	112.1	111.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	8-0	11-0
Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	6-2	8-3
Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	4-4	7-5
Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	4-4	5-4
Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	3-6	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	7-1	9-1
Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	2-6	4-7
S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	3-5	4-7
Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	2-6	2-10
UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	0-7	0-10
Sun Avg.	91.1	91.4	90.9	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	League	Avg
1	SEC	111.7
2	BTen	109.5
3	B12	106.6
4	P12	106.4
5	ACC	106.2
6	AAC	100.1
7	Ind.	93.6
8	MWC	93.5
9	Sun	91.2
10	MAC	88.0
11	CUSA	85.1

College Football TV Schedule For This Weekend

Up to date as of Friday morning, 11 AM EST

Friday, December 18
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	CBSSN *	Marshall	UAB
7:30 PM	ESPN *	Buffalo (n)	Ball St.
7:30 PM	BTN	Rutgers	Nebraska
8:00 PM	FOX *	USC	Oregon
Saturday, December 19
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	ABC *	Iowa St. (n)	Oklahoma
12:00 PM	FOX *	Ohio St. (n)	Northwestern
12:00 PM	ESPN	Tennessee	Texas A&M
12:00 PM	ACCN	Wake Forest	Florida St.
3:00 PM	CBSSN	Army	Air Force
3:30 PM	SECN	LSU	Ole Miss
3:30 PM	SECNA	Mississippi St.	Missouri
4:00 PM	ABC *	Notre Dame (n)	Clemson
4:00 PM	BTN	Wisconsin	Minnesota
5:30 PM	FS1	Penn St.	Illinois
7:00 PM	ESPN	UCLA	Stanford
8:00 PM	ABC *	Cincinnati	Tulsa
8:00 PM	CBS *	Alabama (n)	Florida
10:30 PM	ESPN	Oregon St.	Arizona St.
		(n) Neutral Site * Conf. Championship

PiRate Picks for December 18-21, 2020

A General Malaise

December in the sports wagering world has been about as sickly as the nation and world as a whole, but unfortunately, Pfizer and Moderna are not going to issue sports wagering vaccines to turn losers into winners.

How crazy have things been lately? Look at the most incredible Monday Night Football game in the 51 year history of the event. Baltimore was a 3 1/2 point favorite over Cleveland, and the Ravens led the Browns by three points after a brilliant drive that led to a long field goal. The Browns had one final play to hope for a miracle touchdown or to hope Baltimore committed a defensive 15-yard penalty that would lead to an untimed down and possible field goal to force overtime.

You’ve no doubt seen the dozen lateral play. Unless a large marching band is on the field, the play doesn’t work, because the offense needs a giant tuba player to set an important screen. The 99% of the other times, there are a dozen or so laterals that are fun to watch for 20-30 seconds. The play ends, and the game is over.

Well, this time it was different for the first time in another way. Cleveland ran out of real estate, and the last lateral led to a safety, making the final score a five-point spread. Unlike when a game outcome changes at the end when a team chooses to run the clock play one foot from scoring a touchdown that would change the margin winner or the total, this was totally different. 9,999 times out of 10,000, that part of the wagering public that was already counting their winnings with Cleveland covering, would have actually got those winnings. This was that one other time. Millions and millions of dollars changed on that one crazy play. Local sports talk radio in a state with legalized wagering took time out from coaching search speculation to talk with representatives of MGM and Fan Duel to get the juicy details.

As you know, we at the PiRate Ratings never wager real money on our selections and always recommend that you do the same if you are relying on our selections as real advice. We do this just for the fun of it. In past years, we have enjoyed some spectacular imaginary seasons. We’ve had a couple clinkers as well. This year, we had an imaginary profit entering Thanksgiving, but the last three weeks have seen just enough losses turn the profit to a minor loss for the season. And, unlike the one time Cleveland-Baltimore deal, we have seen our last selection of the week lose after two-thirds of the parlay had won. That last third has done us in. This past week, it was the Giants-Cardinals game. The Giants did us in the week before with the upset win at Seattle. On Thanksgiving, Dallas and Washington couldn’t get their offenses rolling enough.

This week, we joked among ourselves (only crazies like us would laugh at this), wondering if we should change the order of our selections, so that the final NFL game wouldn’t spoil the final third of a parlay. But, then we figured it would only infect the entire card. So, we continue to disbelieve the voodoo that somebody has been doing so well. We’ll call that nemesis, “The Wizard of Laterals.” The talisman that keeps him at bay is “The Gold Tuba.”

Here are this week’s selections. Remember, these are for entertainment purposes only, and we urge you not to wager real money on what you read, even if it’s your Christmas bonus. Save that money to pay for the expensive food on that diet you will begin in two weeks.

Dec 18-21
1. College 6 1/2 point Teaser		-120
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	+1
Ohio St.	Northwestern	-13 1/2
2. College 10-point Teaser		-110
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Utah	Washington St.	– 1/2
Air Force	Army	+7 1/2
Ole Miss	LSU	+7 1/2
3. College 10-point Teaser		-110
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Missouri	Mississippi St.	+8 1/2
Clemson	Notre Dame	– 1/2
Minnesota	Wisconsin	+22 1/2
4. College 10-point Teaser
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Penn St.	Illinois	-5 1/2
Alabama	Florida	-7
Cincinnati	Tulsa	-4 1/2
5. College Money Line Parlay		+138.40
Must Win	Opponent	Spread
Buffalo	Ball St.
USC	Oregon	+138.40
Texas A&M	Tennessee
6. College Money Line Parlay		+187.04
Must Win	Opponent	Spread
Marshall	UAB
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	+187.04
Clemson	Notre Dame
7. NFL 6-point Teaser		-110
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Green Bay	Carolina	-2
Indianapolis	Houston	-1 1/2
8. NFL 6-point Teaser		-110
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Tennessee	Detroit	-6
New England	Miami	+7 1/2
9. NFL 6 1/2-point Teaser		-120
Selection	Opponent	Spread
Kansas City	New Orleans	+3 1/2
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	-6 1/2
10. NFL Money Line Parlay		+134.81
Must Win	Opponent	Spread
Green Bay	Carolina
Tennessee	Detroit	+134.81
Kansas City	New Orleans
11. NFL Money Line Parlay		+148.28
Must Win	Opponent	Spread
Indianapolis	Houston
Arizona	Philadelphia	+148.28
Buffalo	Denver

PiRate Ratings College Football For December 17-19, 2020

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

We apologize for having to totally re-work this section, but the crazy off-the-cuff scheduling and cancellations have done a number on all of the power ratings specialists throughout the land. We keep in touch with many of our brethren, and they too are having to deal with hourly changes to the sports schedules.

This schedule is up to date as of Monday afternoon, 12/14/2020 at 4:00 PM EST.

Monday night update: Vanderbilt & Georgia game cancelled. Georgia is attempting to find a replacement team from outside the SEC.

SMU has opted out of Saturday’s Frisco Bowl. A replacement will be attempted by the bowl.

Tuesday update–The Frisco Bowl has been cancelled. Troy and UL-Monroe have cancelled. And, the Old Oaken Bucket Game–Indiana and Purdue has been cancelled. Michigan’s game with Iowa has been cancelled. The Michigan State-Maryland game has been cancelled.

Thursday update– The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana has been cancelled.

Friday update–Florida State and Wake Forest game has been cancelled.

Regular Season Games
Thursday, December 17
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Troy	UL-Monroe	25.3	26.5	27.3
Friday, December 18
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Indiana	Purdue	14.7	15.0	16.5
Rutgers	Nebraska	-2.9	-3.4	-4.8
Saturday, December 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest	Florida St.	7.8	9.4	8.8
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.0	11.8	13.5
Penn St.	Illinois	10.8	10.2	10.6
Iowa	Michigan	16.3	16.8	17.0
Maryland	Michigan St.	-2.4	-1.9	-3.2
Army	Air Force	-5.3	-4.6	-5.3
Utah	Washington St.	6.4	8.0	6.7
UCLA	Stanford	5.3	6.1	4.9
Oregon St.	Arizona St.	-3.2	-2.7	-3.6
Georgia	Vanderbilt	38.1	38.0	39.8
Tennessee	Texas A&M	-13.8	-14.4	-14.4
LSU	Ole Miss	6.8	7.2	7.9
Mississippi St.	Missouri	0.6	0.2	0.2
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
Friday, December 18
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo (n)	Ball St.	11.3	12.5	11.9
Marshall	UAB	6.2	6.2	6.5
USC	Oregon	5.2	4.2	4.8
Saturday, December 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	Tulsa	17.2	18.1	18.8
Clemson (n)	Notre Dame	5.8	6.8	8.0
Iowa St. (n)	Oklahoma	-1.1	-1.3	-0.9
Ohio St. (n)	Northwestern	19.5	18.5	19.2
Alabama (n)	Florida	18.1	19.7	19.9
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana	3.3	4.3	4.5
San Jose St. (n)	Boise St.	-10.4	-8.5	-9.5
(n): Neutral Site
BOWL GAME
Frisco Bowl—Cancelled
Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	UTSA	15.9	15.0	14.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Alabama	140.4	141.3	142.7	141.5	SEC-W
2	Ohio St.	131.4	130.5	133.7	131.9	BTen-E
3	Clemson	129.2	130.0	131.4	130.2	ACC
4	Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	SEC-E
5	Notre Dame	124.4	124.2	124.4	124.3	ACC
6	Florida	122.2	121.7	122.8	122.2	SEC-E
7	Texas A&M	121.6	121.6	122.3	121.8	SEC-W
8	Oklahoma	121.6	121.1	121.8	121.5	B12
9	Iowa St.	120.5	119.8	120.9	120.4	B12
10	Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	BTen-W
11	N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	ACC
12	Wisconsin	119.7	118.0	120.9	119.5	BTen-W
13	Cincinnati	119.2	118.7	119.4	119.1	AAC
14	Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	BTen-E
15	U S C	118.6	116.0	117.7	117.5	P12-S
16	Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	B12
17	Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	SEC-W
18	Oregon	115.5	113.9	114.9	114.8	P12-N
19	BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	Ind.
20	L S U	114.3	113.6	115.4	114.4	SEC-W
21	Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	B12
22	Northwestern	111.9	112.0	114.4	112.8	BTen-W
23	Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	ACC
24	Penn St.	111.8	110.5	112.4	111.6	BTen-E
25	UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	AAC
26	T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	B12
27	Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	SEC-E
28	Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	P12-N
29	Arizona St.	109.2	108.5	108.8	108.8	P12-S
30	Ole Miss	109.0	107.9	109.0	108.6	SEC-W
31	Utah	108.2	108.3	108.9	108.5	P12-S
32	U C L A	108.2	107.3	107.4	107.6	P12-S
33	Buffalo	106.9	108.0	107.7	107.5	MAC-E
34	Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	SUN-E
35	Minnesota	106.7	107.2	108.3	107.4	BTen-W
36	Boise St.	107.2	107.2	106.9	107.1	MWC-M
37	Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	ACC
38	Tennessee	106.3	105.7	106.4	106.1	SEC-E
39	Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	ACC
40	Missouri	105.3	105.0	106.1	105.5	SEC-E
41	Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	BTen-E
42	Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	SUN-W
43	Nebraska	105.0	104.5	106.3	105.3	BTen-W
44	Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	ACC
45	California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	P12-N
46	Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	ACC
47	W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	B12
48	Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	ACC
49	Miss. St.	104.4	103.7	104.8	104.3	SEC-W
50	Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	AAC
51	Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	ACC
52	Stanford	104.4	102.7	104.0	103.7	P12-N
53	Oregon St.	104.0	103.8	103.2	103.7	P12-N
54	Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	BTen-W
55	Washington St.	103.7	102.3	104.2	103.4	P12-N
56	Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	AAC
57	Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	SUN-E
58	Illinois	102.9	102.3	103.8	103.0	BTen-W
59	Tulsa	103.5	102.1	102.1	102.5	AAC
60	Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	SEC-W
61	Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	B12
62	Air Force	101.7	102.4	101.7	101.9	MWC-M
63	NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	ACC
64	Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	AAC
65	Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	Ind.
66	Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	P12-S
67	Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	B12
68	Rutgers	100.6	99.6	100.0	100.1	BTen-E
69	SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	AAC
70	S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	SEC-E
71	Marshall	99.6	99.9	99.2	99.5	CUSA-E
72	Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	BTen-E
73	San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	MWC-W
74	Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	B12
75	San Jose St.	96.9	98.6	97.4	97.6	MWC-W
76	Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	ACC
77	Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	MWC-M
78	Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	MWC-W
79	Ball St.	95.6	95.5	95.8	95.7	MAC-W
80	U A B	95.3	95.7	94.7	95.2	CUSA-W
81	Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	ACC
82	E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	AAC
83	Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	BTen-E
84	Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	MAC-E
85	Army	93.9	95.3	93.9	94.4	Ind.
86	Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	P12-S
87	Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	SUN-E
88	Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	MWC-W
89	Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	MWC-W
90	Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	MAC-W
91	Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	MAC-W
92	Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	SUN-E
93	Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	MAC-W
94	Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	SUN-E
95	Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	MAC-E
96	Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	AAC
97	W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	CUSA-E
98	Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	MAC-E
99	Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	ACC
100	Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	ACC
101	Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	MWC-M
102	Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	SEC-E
103	Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	SUN-W
104	Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	AAC
105	Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	CUSA-W
106	USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	AAC
107	Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	CUSA-E
108	New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	MWC-M
109	Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	CUSA-E
110	U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	CUSA-W
111	Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	MAC-W
112	Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	MWC-M
113	La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	CUSA-W
114	Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	CUSA-E
115	Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	CUSA-E
116	Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	CUSA-W
117	S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	SUN-W
118	N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	MAC-W
119	Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	SUN-W
120	U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	MWC-W
121	Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	B12
122	North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	CUSA-W
123	U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	CUSA-W
124	Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	MAC-E
125	UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	SUN-W
126	Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	MAC-E
127	Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	Ind.

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
Cincinnati	119.2	118.7	119.4	119.1	6-0	8-0
UCF	110.4	110.3	110.7	110.5	5-3	6-3
Tulane	104.3	104.3	103.9	104.2	3-5	6-5
Memphis	104.4	103.1	102.6	103.4	5-3	7-3
Tulsa	103.5	102.1	102.1	102.5	6-0	6-1
Houston	102.3	100.9	101.2	101.5	3-3	3-4
SMU	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.7	4-3	7-3
E. Carolina	95.6	95.4	94.5	95.2	3-4	3-6
Navy	92.7	91.4	90.7	91.6	3-4	3-7
Temple	87.9	87.6	86.3	87.3	1-6	1-6
USF	87.8	86.5	86.2	86.8	0-7	1-8
AAC Avg.	100.7	100.0	99.7	100.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	129.2	130.0	131.4	130.2	8-1	9-1
Notre Dame	124.4	124.2	124.4	124.3	9-0	10-0
N. Carolina	119.8	119.9	120.3	120.0	7-3	8-3
Miami (Fla.)	110.8	112.7	111.3	111.6	7-2	8-2
Louisville	107.1	107.0	106.5	106.8	3-7	4-7
Pittsburgh	105.5	106.4	105.8	105.9	5-5	6-5
Wake Forest	104.7	105.5	105.5	105.3	3-4	4-4
Virginia	104.6	105.0	105.1	104.9	4-5	5-5
Virginia Tech	103.9	104.5	104.9	104.4	5-5	5-6
Boston Coll.	103.6	103.9	104.2	103.9	5-5	6-5
NC State	101.4	101.9	101.8	101.7	7-3	8-3
Florida St.	97.9	97.2	97.7	97.6	2-6	3-6
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.2	94.8	95.2	3-6	3-7
Syracuse	90.1	91.3	90.8	90.8	1-9	1-10
Duke	90.5	90.3	89.3	90.0	1-9	2-9
ACC Avg.	106.0	106.3	106.2	106.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.6	121.1	121.8	121.5	6-2	7-2
Iowa St.	120.5	119.8	120.9	120.4	8-1	8-2
Texas	117.0	115.8	116.9	116.6	5-3	6-3
Oklahoma St.	114.5	113.2	113.6	113.8	6-3	7-3
T C U	110.5	109.3	110.9	110.3	5-4	6-4
W. Virginia	104.7	104.4	104.9	104.7	4-4	5-4
Baylor	102.3	101.8	102.1	102.1	2-7	2-7
Kansas St.	100.4	99.6	100.7	100.2	4-5	4-6
Texas Tech	98.8	97.6	98.9	98.4	3-6	4-6
Kansas	78.7	78.0	77.4	78.1	0-8	0-9
Big 12 Avg.	106.9	106.1	106.8	106.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	131.4	130.5	133.7	131.9	5-0	5-0
Indiana	117.1	117.5	119.6	118.1	6-1	6-1
Penn St.	111.8	110.5	112.4	111.6	3-5	3-5
Michigan	105.4	104.5	106.3	105.4	2-4	2-4
Rutgers	100.6	99.6	100.0	100.1	3-5	3-5
Michigan St.	99.1	98.6	99.7	99.2	2-5	2-5
Maryland	95.2	95.2	95.0	95.1	2-3	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	119.7	119.3	121.4	120.1	6-2	6-2
Wisconsin	119.7	118.0	120.9	119.5	2-3	2-3
Northwestern	111.9	112.0	114.4	112.8	6-1	6-1
Minnesota	106.7	107.2	108.3	107.4	3-3	3-3
Nebraska	105.0	104.5	106.3	105.3	2-5	2-5
Purdue	103.4	103.5	104.1	103.7	2-4	2-4
Illinois	102.9	102.3	103.8	103.0	2-5	2-5
Big Ten Avg.	109.3	108.8	110.4	109.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	99.6	99.9	99.2	99.5	4-1	7-1
W. Kentucky	91.2	91.7	90.8	91.2	4-3	5-6
Fla. Atlantic	85.9	86.8	86.2	86.3	4-2	5-3
Florida Int’l.	85.7	85.5	85.3	85.5	0-3	0-5
Charlotte	83.5	83.6	83.2	83.4	2-2	2-4
Middle Tenn.	82.2	82.5	82.3	82.3	2-4	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.3	95.7	94.7	95.2	3-1	5-3
Rice	88.1	86.2	87.2	87.2	2-3	2-3
U T S A	85.2	85.6	85.4	85.4	5-2	7-4
La. Tech	83.6	84.2	83.6	83.8	4-2	5-4
Southern Miss.	82.3	82.8	81.8	82.3	2-4	3-7
North Texas	75.4	75.6	74.8	75.3	3-4	4-5
U T E P	67.9	70.3	68.0	68.7	0-4	3-5
CUSA Avg.	85.1	85.4	84.8	85.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	114.7	114.5	114.9	114.7	x	10-1
Liberty	100.0	102.9	100.8	101.2	x	9-1
Army	93.9	95.3	93.9	94.4	x	8-2
Mass.	61.7	67.5	59.9	63.0	x	0-4
Ind. Avg.	92.6	95.1	92.4	93.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Buffalo	106.9	108.0	107.7	107.5	5-0	5-0
Ohio	94.4	95.1	95.3	94.9	2-1	2-1
Miami (O)	92.4	91.5	92.1	92.0	2-1	2-1
Kent St.	91.2	90.7	90.7	90.9	3-1	3-1
Akron	67.5	69.2	66.1	67.6	1-5	1-5
Bowling Green	65.1	66.4	61.8	64.4	0-5	0-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Ball St.	95.6	95.5	95.8	95.7	5-1	5-1
Western Mich.	91.6	93.3	92.4	92.4	4-2	4-2
Toledo	92.1	93.2	91.9	92.4	4-2	4-2
Central Mich.	92.0	92.1	92.2	92.1	3-3	3-3
Eastern Mich.	83.8	85.6	84.5	84.6	2-4	2-4
N. Illinois	80.7	82.0	80.8	81.2	0-6	0-6
MAC Avg.	87.8	88.5	87.6	88.0
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Boise St.	107.2	107.2	106.9	107.1	5-0	5-1
Air Force	101.7	102.4	101.7	101.9	2-2	3-2
Wyoming	96.0	97.1	96.4	96.5	2-4	2-4
Colorado St.	89.5	90.3	89.5	89.8	1-3	1-3
New Mexico	86.0	86.8	85.4	86.1	2-5	2-5
Utah St.	84.4	84.1	83.5	84.0	1-5	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
San Diego St.	98.5	99.5	98.8	98.9	4-2	4-4
San Jose St.	96.9	98.6	97.4	97.6	6-0	6-0
Nevada	95.2	96.1	95.6	95.7	6-2	6-2
Fresno St.	92.7	93.2	92.2	92.7	3-3	3-3
Hawaii	92.7	93.0	92.0	92.5	4-4	4-4
U N L V	79.5	80.6	78.7	79.6	0-6	0-6
MWC Avg.	93.3	94.1	93.2	93.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Oregon	115.5	113.9	114.9	114.8	3-2	3-2
Washington	109.4	108.0	109.8	109.1	3-1	3-1
California	105.4	105.1	105.1	105.2	1-3	1-3
Stanford	104.4	102.7	104.0	103.7	3-2	3-2
Oregon St.	104.0	103.8	103.2	103.7	2-4	2-4
Washington St.	103.7	102.3	104.2	103.4	1-2	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
U S C	118.6	116.0	117.7	117.5	5-0	5-0
Arizona St.	109.2	108.5	108.8	108.8	1-2	1-2
Utah	108.2	108.3	108.9	108.5	2-2	2-2
U C L A	108.2	107.3	107.4	107.6	3-3	3-3
Colorado	101.0	101.8	99.8	100.9	3-1	4-1
Arizona	94.1	92.5	92.9	93.2	0-5	0-5
P12 Avg.	106.8	105.8	106.4	106.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Georgia	124.4	123.6	125.2	124.4	7-2	7-2
Florida	122.2	121.7	122.8	122.2	8-2	8-2
Kentucky	109.1	109.0	110.1	109.4	4-6	4-6
Tennessee	106.3	105.7	106.4	106.1	3-6	3-6
Missouri	105.3	105.0	106.1	105.5	5-4	5-4
S. Carolina	100.5	98.8	99.7	99.7	2-8	2-8
Vanderbilt	88.3	87.5	87.4	87.8	0-9	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.4	141.3	142.7	141.5	10-0	10-0
Texas A&M	121.6	121.6	122.3	121.8	7-1	7-1
Auburn	115.6	114.7	115.7	115.3	6-4	6-4
L S U	114.3	113.6	115.4	114.4	4-5	4-5
Ole Miss	109.0	107.9	109.0	108.6	4-4	4-4
Miss. St.	104.4	103.7	104.8	104.3	2-7	2-7
Arkansas	102.2	102.8	102.4	102.5	3-7	3-7
SEC Avg.	111.7	111.2	112.1	111.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Coastal Car.	107.0	107.6	107.7	107.4	8-0	11-0
Appal. St.	103.4	102.9	103.5	103.3	6-2	8-3
Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.5	93.0	93.1	4-4	7-5
Georgia St.	91.8	92.1	92.3	92.1	4-4	5-4
Troy	91.8	92.9	92.2	92.3	3-6	5-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	105.7	105.3	105.3	105.4	7-1	9-1
Arkansas St.	87.6	88.2	87.0	87.6	2-6	4-7
S. Alabama	81.8	82.7	81.7	82.1	3-5	4-7
Texas St.	81.0	81.5	80.2	80.9	2-6	2-10
UL-Monroe	68.0	67.9	66.5	67.5	0-7	0-10
Sun Avg.	91.1	91.4	90.9	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	League	Avg
1	SEC	111.7
2	BTen	109.5
3	B12	106.6
4	P12	106.4
5	ACC	106.2
6	AAC	100.1
7	MWC	93.5
8	Ind.	93.3
9	Sun	91.2
10	MAC	88.0
11	CUSA	85.1

The Playoffs–What Will Be This Week & What Should Be

The Playoff Committee won’t adjust this week’s top four teams. Only one of the four from last week played a game this past weekend, and Alabama basically showed the nation that they look like the best team in college football since the 2001 Miami of Florida Hurricanes. If somebody tells you that the playoffs need to be expanded from 4 to either 6, 8, or 12 teams, because Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose St. deserve a chance this year, you should reply that they are incorrect when talking about this year only. If the NCAA Playoff Committee wanted to make any changes to make the 2020-2021 college season end the right way, they should change the number of teams in the playoffs–from four to zero!

Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation. If they played Notre Dame, Ohio State, or Clemson next week, the Tide would be favored by two touchdowns minimum over any of the three contenders. If you are old enough to remember UCLA basketball during the three seasons that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and his additional all-American teammates suited up for the Bruins, the NCAA Tournaments were less eventful than the middle of the season Christmas and New Year’s tournaments. For three years, UCLA was the basketball equivalent of the 1927 New York Yankees. The NCAA Tournament was no different than the Bruin Invitational, as UCLA beat Dayton, North Carolina, and Purdue so handily that the games were not meaningful. Alabama is going to do the same thing this year.

We believe that Clemson will edge Notre Dame in the ACC Championship, as the Tigers almost beat the Irish in South Bend without having Trevor Lawrence available. Notre Dame will assuredly drop to #4 in the playoff rankings, but they will stay in the top 4 to be Sugar Bowl fodder for Alabama. Ohio State and Clemson would then face off in the Rose Bowl. Ten days later, Alabama will run roughshod over the Ohio State-Clemson winner, most likely Clemson, and it will be like the Yankees-Dodgers in the World Series during the 1950’s, with Alabama being the Yankees.

If you ask us whether Ohio State deserves to be in the Playoffs, as they have only played five games, when the Big Ten had previously stated that a team had to play at least six games to be eligible for the Big Ten Championship, we have a somewhat divided opinion. First, we 100% agree that Ohio State should be in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Let’s say that rather than declare the Michigan game postponed, that Ohio State forfeited the game to show a six-game slate. Even with the one loss, Ohio State beats out Indiana on the tiebreaker, and it doesn’t affect their eye test rating. So, the Buckeyes deserve the East Division championship. We kind of compare this to the rule where a Major League batter can be the batting champion even if he fails to get the required 502 plate appearances in a 162-game schedule, if you take his at-bats and include additional outs until you reach the 502 required PA’s. If the batter still has the highest batting average with those outs added, he is the batting champion.

For example, in 1996, legendary hitter Tony Gwynn batted .353, but he only made 498 plate appearances, which did not qualify for the batting crown. He needed four additional plate appearances. With four outs added to Gwynn’s actual record, his batting average dropped to .349, which was still better than the next highest average, Rockies’ star Ellis Burks at .344. So, Gwynn won the batting title at .353.

Likewise, adding one loss to Ohio State’s record still allows the Buckeyes to win the Big Ten East in a tiebreaker with Indiana.

That being said, do we believe that Ohio State is one of the four best teams in the nation this year? The short answer is that our own ratings show the Buckeyes to be the second best team. However, if we were on the Playoff Committee, we would be totally at a loss to separate Ohio State and USC. As for any of the G5 teams, we hate to say it, but none of them can play either Ohio State or USC to within 10 points. A G5 Playoff with Cincinnati, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, and San Jose State would be quite entertaining and much better TV choices than the bowl games, even the New Year’s Six games. But, the only teams outside the current top four that should be in consideration for the Playoffs are USC and Texas A&M. Additionally, it is more accurate to state that the loser of the ACC Championship Game should be removed in favor of an undefeated USC team this year. A one-loss Texas A&M team that beat Florida and played Alabama better than any other opponent might be the second best team in the nation, and it would be hard to convince us that they don’t belong in the Big Four if the ACC loser loses by a substantial margin.

Here is our belief as to what will happen depending on whether each of the contenders win or lose this week.

Alabama–If the Crimson Tide wins, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed. If the Crimson Tide loses, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #3 seed.

Ohio State–If the Buckeyes win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed. If the Buckeyes lose, they are in a NY6 bowl and not in the playoffs.

Notre Dame–If the Irish win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 seed or Sugar Bowl as the #1 seed if Bama were to lose. If the Irish lose, they are in the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed.

Clemson–If the Tigers win, they are in the Rose Bowl as the #2 or #3 seed based on what Ohio State does. If the Tigers lose, they are in the Orange Bowl and not in the playoffs.

Texas A&M–The Aggies must win and then hope for Clemson or Ohio State to lose, possibly Notre Dame to lose by 20 or more points. If the Aggies back into the Playoffs, they will be headed to the Sugar Bowl as the #4 seed if Alabama is #1, or to the Rose Bowl if Ohio State or Notre Dame is #1

USC–Notre Dame must beat Clemson, and Northwestern must upset Ohio State, while USC beats Washington by 28 or more points, and Texas A&M doesn’t slaughter Tennessee.

Cincinnati–Clemson, Ohio State, and USC must lose, and maybe even Texas A&M.

Any 2-loss team–We don’t see any scenario where Oklahoma, Iowa State, Florida, or Clemson could make the playoffs with two losses.

This Week’s College Football TV Schedule

As usual in these times, this is an ever-changing schedule. Three games have already been scuttled from the schedule, and there are a few more games in danger of being cancelled. Additionally, we hear that one team is on the brink of closing up shop for the rest of the season due to too many player opt-outs.

Thursday, December 3
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
6:00 PM	CBSSN	North Texas	Louisiana Tech
9:30 PM	CBSSN	Utah St.	Air Force
Friday, December 4
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Appalachian St.	Louisiana
9:30 PM	CBSSN	UNLV	Boise St.
Saturday, December 5
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	ABC	Michigan St.	Ohio St.
12:00 PM	FOX	Kansas St.	Texas
12:00 PM	ESPN	Auburn	Texas A&M
12:00 PM	ESPN2	TCU	Oklahoma St.
12:00 PM	FS1	Rutgers	Penn St.
12:00 PM	CBSSN	Miami (O)	Kent St.
12:00 PM	SECN	Missouri	Arkansas
12:00 PM	BTN	Purdue	Nebraska
12:00 PM	ACCN	North Carolina	Western Carolina
2:00 PM	ESPNU	Coastal Carolina	Liberty
2:30 PM	NBC	Notre Dame	Syracuse
3:30 PM	ABC	Wisconsin	Indiana
3:30 PM	CBS	Tennessee	Florida
3:30 PM	ESPN	Iowa St.	West Virginia
3:30 PM	ESPN2	Navy	Tulsa
3:30 PM	FS1	Illinois	Iowa
3:30 PM	CBSSN	Ohio	Buffalo
3:30 PM	FSN	Virginia	Boston College
3:30 PM	BTN	Michigan	Maryland
4:00 PM	FOX	Washington	Stanford
4:00 PM	ACCN	NC St.	Georgia Tech
4:00 PM	SECN	Georgia	Vanderbilt
5:30 PM	ESPNU	Central Michigan	Ball St.
7:00 PM	ESPN	California	Oregon
7:00 PM	FS1	Arizona	Colorado
7:00 PM	CBSSN	San Diego St.	Colorado St.
7:30 PM	ABC	Virginia Tech	Clemson
7:30 PM	SECN	Kentucky	South Carolina
8:00 PM	CBS	LSU	Alabama
8:00 PM	FOX	Oklahoma	Baylor
8:00 PM	ACCN	Duke	Miami (Fla.)
9:00 PM	ESPNU	SMU	Houston
10:30 PM	ESPN	Utah	Oregon St.
10:30 PM	FS1	Arizona St.	UCLA
10:30 PM	CBSSN	New Mexico	Wyoming
5:30 PM	ESPNU	Coastal Carolina	BYU (ADDED)
Sunday, December 6
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
2:30 PM	???	Middle Tenn.	UAB
7:30 PM	FS1	USC	Washington St.

Attention: Normally, we issue our imaginary wagering selections on Thursday mornings, but because we averaged five betting selections wiped out by game cancellations per week in November, and because we don’t have any plays on the two Thursday night games, we will delay our selections this week and publish them Friday afternoon to try to limit the number of games that cancel our selections.