The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 11, 2013

NCAA Basketball Tournaments Update–Tuesday, March 12, 2013

DANCE TICKETS PUNCHED

Florida Gulf Coast 24-10

Belmont 26-6

Harvard 19-9

Liberty 15-20

Creighton 27-7

Western Kentucky 20-15

Davidson 26-7

James Madison 20-14

Gonzaga 31-2

Iona 20-13

 

Note: Above RPI Rankings are from Monday, March 11.

 

Today’s Conference Tournaments in Action

Big East Conference—1st Round

Horizon League—Championship Game

M E A C—1st Round (Part 2)

Mountain West Conference—1st Round

Northeast Conference—Championship Game

W A C—1st Round

 

Note: Below RPI Rankings are from the day before each conference tournament began

 

America East Conference

 

Seed

Team

Conference

Overall

RPI

1

Stony Brook

14-2

24-7

71

2

Vermont

11-5

21-10

128

3

Hartford

10-6

17-13

171

4

Albany

9-7

23-10

164

5

Maine

6-10

11-19

273

6

U M B C

5-11

8-23

312

7

N. Hampshire

5-11

9-20

293

8

Binghamton

1-15

3-27

338

 

Conference Tournament—Albany, NY  (Championship Game at Higher Seed)

 

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

1

2-Vermont  61  7-New Hampshire  42

 

 

2

6-U M B C  69  3-Hartford  62

 

 

3

1-Stony Brook  72  8-Binghamton  49

 

 

4

4-Albany  50  5-Maine  49

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

5

2-Vermont  85  6-U M B C  72

 

 

6

4-Albany  61  1-Stony Brook  59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 –Finals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 16

 

 

7

4-Albany at 2-Vermont

11:30 AM

ESPN2

 

 

 

 

 

Online Site: www.americaeast.com

 

 

Big East Conference

 

Seed

Team

Conference

Overall

RPI

1

Georgetown

14-4

24-5

9

2

Louisville

14-4

26-5

3

3

Marquette

14-4

23-7

10

4

Pittsburgh

12-6

24-7

40

5

Syracuse

11-7

23-8

16

6

Notre Dame

11-7

23-8

44

7

Villanova

10-8

19-12

51

8

Providence

9-9

17-13

81

9

Cincinnati

9-9

21-10

46

10

St. John’s

8-10

16-14

78

11

Rutgers

5-13

14-15

108

12

Seton Hall

3-15

14-17

131

13

South Florida

3-15

12-18

130

14

DePaul

2-16

11-20

198

 

Conference Tournament—New York City

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

1

12-Seton Hall vs. 13-South Florida

7:00 PM

ESPNU

2

11-Rutgers vs. 14-DePaul

9:00 PM

ESPNU

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – 2nd Round

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13

 

 

3

8-Providence vs. 9-Cincinnati

12:00 PM

ESPN

4

5-Syracuse vs. Winner Game 1

2:00 PM

ESPN

5

7-Villanova vs. 10-St. John’s

7:00 PM

ESPN

6

6-Notre Dame vs. Winner Game 2

9:00 PM

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 14

 

 

7

1-Georgetown vs. Winner Game 3

12:00 PM

ESPN

8

4-Pittsburgh vs. Winner Game 4

2:00 PM

ESPN

9

2-Louisville vs. Winner Game 5

7:00 PM

ESPN

10

3-Marquette vs. Winner Game 6

9:00 PM

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Semifinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 15

 

 

11

Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

7:00 PM

ESPN

12

Winner Game 9 vs. Winner Game 10

9:00 PM

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Day 5 – Finals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 16

 

 

13

Winner Game 11 vs. Winner Game 12

8:30 PM

ESPN

Online Site: www.bigeast.org

 

 

Colonial Athletic Association

 

Seed

Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Northeastern 14-4 20-12 160
2 Delaware 13-5 19-14 127
3 James Madison 11-7 20-14 207
4 George Mason 10-8 18-14 155
5 Drexel 9-9 13-18 205
6 William & Mary 7-11 13-17 265
7 Hofstra 4-14 7-25 321

 

Conference Tournament—Richmond, VA

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

1

4-George Mason  60  5-Drexel  54

 

 

2

2-Delaware  62  7-Hofstra  57

 

 

3

3-James Madison  72  6-William & Mary  67

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

4

1-Northeastern  69 4-George Mason  67

 

 

5

3-James Madison  58  2-Delaware  57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3-Finals

 

 

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

6

3-James Madison  70  1-Northeastern  57

 

 

 

Online Site: http://www.caasports.com

 

Horizon League

 

Seed

Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Valparaiso 13-3 25-7 63
2 Detroit 12-4 20-12 58
3 Wright St. 10-6 21-11 166
4 Green Bay 10-6 18-15 167
5 Illinois-Chicago 7-9 17-15 164
6 Youngstown St. 7-9 17-15 190
7 Loyola (Chi) 5-11 15-16 218
8 Cleveland St. 5-11 14-18 196
9 Milwaukee 3-13 8-24 301

 

Conference Tournament—1st Round & Championship @ Higher Seed, Quarterfinals & Semifinals at Valparaiso

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 5

 

 

1

4-Green Bay  62  9-Milwaukee  46

 

 

2

5-Illinois-Chicago  82  8-Cleveland St.  59

 

 

3

6-Youngstown St.  62  7-Loyola (Chi)  60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

4

3-Wright St.  66  6-Youngstown St.  59

 

 

5

4-Green Bay  64  5-Illinois-Chicago  63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

6

3-Wright St.  56  2-Detroit  54

 

 

7

1-Valparaiso  70  4-Green Bay  69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

8

3-Wright St. vs. 1-Valparaiso

9:00 PM

ESPN

 

Online Site: http://www.horizonleague.org

 

M A A C

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Niagara 13-5 19-13 123
2 Rider 12-6 18-14 135
3 Loyola (MD) 12-6 21-11 98
4 Iona 11-7 20-13 117
5 Canisius 11-7 18-13 110
6 Manhattan 9-9 14-18 200
7 Fairfield 9-9 19-15 170
8 Marist 6-12 10-21 250
9 Siena 4-14 8-24 297
10 St. Peter’s 3-15 9-21 283

 

Conference Tournament—Springfield, MA

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

1

9-Siena   70  8-Marist  64

 

 

2

7-Fairfield  54  10-St. Peter’s  47

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

3

1-Niagara  74  9-Siena  62

 

 

4

4-Iona  89  5-Canisius  85

 

 

5

7-Fairfield  43  2-Rider  42

 

 

6

6-Manhattan  55  3-Loyola (MD)  52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

7

4-Iona  79  1-Niagara  73

 

 

8

6-Manhattan  60  7-Fairfield  42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

9

4-Iona  60  6-Manhattan  57

 

 

 

Online Site: http://www.maacsports.com

 

Mid-American Conference

Seed

Team

Conference

Overall

RPI

1

Akron

14-2

24-6

53

2

Ohio U

14-2

23-8

74

3

Western Michigan

10-6

19-11

132

4

Kent St.

9-7

19-12

145

5

Ball St.

8-8

15-14

225

6

Bowling Green

7-9

13-19

254

7

Eastern Michigan

7-9

15-17

235

8

Buffalo

7-9

13-19

231

9

Central Michigan

4-12

11-20

260

10

Northern Illinois

3-13

5-25

331

11

Miami (O)

3-13

9-21

269

 

Conference Tournament—Cleveland (1st round at higher seeds)

 

Game #

Day 1 – Opening Round

Time

TV

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

1

8-Buffalo  74  9-Central Michigan  72 ot

 

 

2

7-Eastern Michigan  45  10-N. Illinois  44

 

 

3

11-Miami (O)  63  6-Bowling Green  52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – 2nd Round

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13

 

 

4

5-Ball St. vs. 8-Buffalo

6:30 PM

Online

5

7-Eastern Michigan vs. 11-Miami (O)

9:00 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 14

 

 

6

4-Kent St. vs. Winner Game 4

6:30 PM

Online

7

3-W. Michigan vs. Winner Game 5

9:00 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Semifinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 15

 

 

8

1-Akron vs. Winner Game 6

6:30 PM

Online

9

2-Ohio vs. Winner Game 7

9:00 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 5 – Finals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 16

 

 

10

Winner Game 8 vs. Winner Game 9

6:30 PM

ESPN2

 

 

 

 

 

Online Site: www.mac-sports.com

 

 

 

Mideast Athletic Conference

 

Seed

Team

Conference

Overall

RPI

1

Norfolk St.

16-0

21-10

169

2

UNC-Central

15-1

22-8

151

3

Hampton

11-5

14-16

282

4

Savannah St.

11-5

19-13

155

5

Morgan St.

10-6

15-14

251

6

Delaware St.

8-8

13-17

276

7

North Carolina A&T

8-8

15-16

253

8

Bethune-Cookman

7-9

12-19

293

9

Coppin St.

5-11

8-23

309

10

Florida A&M

5-11

8-22

333

11

Howard

4-12

7-23

334

12

South Carolina St.

2-14

6-24

342

13

MD-Eastern Shore

2-14

2-26

345

 

Conference Tournament—Norfolk, VA

 

Game #

Day 1 – Opening Round (Day 1)

Time

TV

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

1

4-Savannah St.  59  13-MD-Eastern Shore  44

 

 

2

5-Morgan St.  61  12-South Carolina St.  52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Opening Round (Day 2)

 

 

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

3

8-Bethune-Cookman vs. 9-Coppin St.

4:00 PM

Online

4

7-North Carolina A&T vs. 10-Florida A&M

6:30 PM

Online

5

6-Delaware St. vs. 11-Howard

9:00 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Quarterfinals (Day 1)

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13

 

 

6

1-Norfolk St. vs. Winner Game 3

6:00 PM

Online

7

2-UNC-Central vs. Winner Game 4

8:00 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Quarterfinals (Day 2)

 

 

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 14

 

 

8

3-Hampton vs. Winner Game 5

6:00 PM

Online

9

4-Savannah St. vs. 5-Morgan St.

8:00 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 5 – Semifinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 15

 

 

10

Winner Game 6 vs. Winner Game 9

6:00 PM

Online

11

Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

8:00 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 6 – Championship Game

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 16

 

 

12

Winner Game 19 vs. Winner Game 11

5:00 PM

ESPNU

 

 

 

 

 

Online Site: www.MEACsports.com

 

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

 

Seed

Team

Conference

Overall

RPI

1

New Mexico

13-3

26-5

2

2

Colorado St.

11-5

24-7

15

3

U N L V

10-6

23-8

22

4

San Diego St.

9-7

21-9

30

5

Boise St.

9-7

21-9

37

6

Air Force

8-8

17-12

71

7

Fresno St.

5-11

11-18

123

8

Wyoming

4-12

18-12

68

9

Nevada

3-13

12-18

166

 

Conference Tournament—Las Vegas (UNLV)

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

1

8-Wyoming vs. 9-Nevada

8:00 PM

Mtn W TV

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – 2nd Round

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13

 

 

2

3-U N L V  vs. 6-Air Force

3:00 PM

CBSSN

3

2-Colorado St. vs. 7-Fresno St.

5:30 PM

CBSSN

4

1-New Mexico vs. Winner Game 1

9:30 PM

CBSSN

5

4-San Diego St. vs. 5-Boise St.

12:00 AM

CBSSN

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 15

 

 

6

Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5

9:00 PM

CBSSN

7

Winner Game 2 vs. Winner Game 3

11:30 PM

CBSSN

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 16

 

 

8

Winner Game 6 vs. Winner Game 7

6:00 PM

CBS

 

Online Site: www.themwc.com

 

Northeast Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Robert Morris 14-4 24-10 114
2 Wagner 12-6 20-12 124
3 Long Island 12-6 20-13 195
4 Bryant 12-6 19-12 146
5 Mt. St. Mary‘s 11-7 19-13 156
6 Quinnipiac 11-7 15-17 191
7 Central Connecticut 9-9 13-18 197
8 St. Francis, NY 8-10 12-19 216

 

Conference Tournament—Games at Campus Sites.  Higher Seeds Host All Games.  Teams Will Be Re-Seeded After Quarterfinals

 

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6

 

 

1

1-Robert Morris  75  8-St. Francis (NY)  57

 

 

2

2-Wagner  72  7-Central Connecticut  50

 

 

3

3-Long Island  91  6-Quinnipiac  83

 

 

4

5-Mt. St. Mary‘s  75  4-Bryant  69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

5

5-Mt. St. Mary’s  69  1-Robert Morris  60

 

 

6

3-Long Island  94  2-Wagner  82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Finals

 

 

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

7

5-Mt. St. Mary’s  at  3-Long Island

7:00 PM

ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.northeastconference.org

 

 

Patriot League

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Bucknell 12-2 27-5 52
2 Lafayette 10-4 19-14 173
3 Lehigh 10-4 21-9 105
4 Army 8-6 16-15 213
5 American 5-9 10-20 261
6 Colgate 5-9 11-21 255
7 Holy Cross 4-10 12-18 249
8 Navy 2-12 8-23 314

 

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6

 

 

1

1-Bucknell  58  8-Navy  42

 

 

2

4-Army  65  5-American  44

 

 

3

2-Lafayette  77  7-Holy Cross  54

 

 

4

3-Lehigh  71  6-Colgate  64

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

 

Games at Higher Seed

 

 

5

1-Bucknell  78  4-Army  70

 

 

6

2-Lafayette  82  3-Lehigh  69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Finals

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13

 

 

 

Game at Higher Seed

 

 

7

2-Lafayette at 1-Bucknell

7:30 PM

CBSSN

 

Online Site: http://www.patriotleague.org

 

Southern Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Davidson 17-1 26-7 82
2 College of Charleston 14-4 24-10 147
3 Elon 13-5 21-11 176
4 Appalachian St. 10-8 15-16 270
5 Western Carolina 9-9 14-19 251
6 Samford 9-9 11-21 281
7 Chattanooga 8-10 13-19 276
8 Wofford 7-11 13-19 240
9 Georgia Southern 7-11 14-19 277
10 UNC-Greensboro 6-12 9-22 330
11 The Citadel 5-13 8-22 327
12 Furman 3-15 7-24 342

 

Conference Tournament: Asheville, NC

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

1

9-Georgia Southern  60  8-Wofford  44

 

 

2

12-Furman   55  5-Samford  51

 

 

3

10-UNC-Greensboro  87  7-Chattanooga  81

 

 

4

6-Western Carolina  76  11-The Citadel  61

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

5

1-Davidson  86  9-Georgia Southern  59

 

 

6

4-Appalachian St.  74  12-Furman  60

 

 

7

2-Elon  68  10-UNC-Greensboro  61

 

 

8

3-Coll. of Charleston  78  6-W. Carolina  70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

9

1-Davidson  65  4-Appalachian St.  62

 

 

10

3-College of Charleston   68  2-Elon  60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

11

1-Davidson  74  3-College of Charleston  55

 

 

 

Online Site: http://www.soconsports.com

 

Summit League

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 South Dakota St. 13-3 24-9 75
2 Western Illinois 13-3 22-8 126
3 North Dakota St. 12-4 24-8 81
4 Oakland 10-6 16-16 132
5 I P F W 7-9 16-17 264
6 Mo.-Kansas City 5-11 8-24 287
7 South Dakota 5-11 10-20 242
8 I U P U I 1-15 6-26 325

 

Conference Tournament—Sioux Falls, SD

 

Game #

Day 1 – Quarterfinals

Time

TV

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

1

1-South Dakota St.  66  8-I U P U I  49

 

 

2

2-Western Illinois  54  7-South Dakota  53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

3

5-I P F W  91  4-Oakland  72

 

 

4

3-North Dakota St.  69  6-UM-Kansas City  58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 –Semifinals

 

 

 

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

5

1-S. Dakota St.  72  5-I P F W  56

 

 

6

3-North Dakota St.  55  2-Western Illinois  43

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

7

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

9:00 PM

ESPN2

 

Online Site: http://www.thesummitleague.org

 

Sun Belt Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Middle Tennessee 19-1 28-5 23
2 South Alabama 14-6 17-12 149
3 Arkansas St. 12-8 19-12 154
4 Florida Int’l 11-9 18-14 137
5 Arkansas-Little Rock 11-9 17-15 163
6 Western Kentucky 10-10 20-15 178
7 Florida Atlantic 9-11 14-18 209
8 Louisiana-Lafayette 8-12 13-20 229
9 North Texas 7-13 12-20 233
10 Troy 6-14 12-21 271
11 Louisiana-Monroe 3-17 4-23 299

 

Conference Tournament—Hot Springs, AR

Note: This Tournament Uses Two Courts— S=Summit Arena, C=Convention Center Court

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

1

6-Western Kentucky  74  11-UL-Monroe  60

 

 

2

8-UL-Lafayette  74  9-North Texas  55

 

 

3

10-Troy   81  7-Florida Atlantic  79 ot

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

4

4-Florida Int’l  69  5-Ark.-Little Rock  54

 

 

5

1-Middle Tennessee  81  8-UL-Lafayette  66

 

 

6

6-Western Kentucky  62  3-S. Alabama  59

 

 

7

2-Arkansas St.  68  10-Troy  63 ot

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SUNDAY, MARCH 10

 

 

8

4-Florida Int’l  61  1-Middle Tennessee  57

 

 

9

6-Western Kentucky  58  2-Arkansas St.  56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

10

6-Western Kentucky  65  4-Florida Int’l  63

 

 

 

Online Site: http://www.sunbeltsports.org

 

West Coast Conference

 

Seed Team Conference Overall RPI
1 Gonzaga 16-0 31-2 10
2 St. Mary’s 14-2 27-6 41
3 B Y U 10-6 21-11 62
4 Santa Clara 9-7 21-11 90
5 San Francisco 7-9 14-16 152
6 San Diego 7-9 15-18 180
7 Pepperdine 4-12 12-18 204
8 Portland 4-12 11-21 219
9 Loyola Marymount 1-15 10-23 253

 

Conference Tournament: Las Vegas

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6

 

 

1

9-Loyola Marymount  65  8-Portland  54

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – 2nd Round

 

 

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 7

 

 

2

9-Loyola Marymount  61  5-San Francisco  60

 

 

3

6-San Diego  62  7-Pepperdine  59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Quarterfinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 8

 

 

4

9-Loyola Marymount   60  4-Santa Clara  58

 

 

5

6-San Diego  72  3-B Y U  69

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Semifinals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 9

 

 

6

1-Gonzaga  66  9-Loyola Marymount  48

 

 

7

2-St. Mary’s  69  6-San Diego  66 ot

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 5 – Finals

 

 

8

MONDAY, MARCH 11

 

 

 

1-Gonzaga  65  2-St. Mary’s  51

 

 

 

Online Site: http://www.wccsports.com

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

Seed

Team

Conference

Overall

RPI

1

Louisiana Tech

16-2

26-5

49

2

Denver

16-2

21-8

58

3

New Mexico St.

14-4

21-10

59

4

UT-Arlington

11-7

17-12

137

5

Utah St.

11-7

21-9

105

6

Idaho

7-11

12-17

196

7

Texas St.

5-13

10-21

287

8

San Jose St.

3-14

9-19

244

9

U T S A

3-14

8-21

284

10

Seattle

3-15

8-21

295

SJ St. & UTSA game postponed on Mar. 7 due to roof leak

 

Conference Tournament—Las Vegas

 

Game #

Day 1 – 1st Round

Time

TV

 

TUESDAY, MARCH 12

 

 

1

7-Texas St. vs. 10-Seattle

9:00 PM

Online

2

8-San Jose St. vs. 9-U T S A

11:30 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 2 – 2nd Round

 

 

 

THURSDAY, MARCH 14

 

 

3

3-New Mexico St. vs. 6-Idaho

3:00 PM

Online

4

2-Denver vs. Winner Game 1

5:30 PM

Online

5

1-Louisiana Tech vs. Winner Game 2

9:00 PM

Online

6

4-UT-Arlington vs. 5-Utah St.

11:30 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 3 – Semifinals

 

 

 

FRIDAY, MARCH 15

 

 

7

Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4

9:00 PM

Online

8

Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6

11:30 PM

Online

 

 

 

 

 

Day 4 – Finals

 

 

 

SATURDAY, MARCH 16

 

 

9

Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

11:00 PM

ESPNU

 

 

 

 

 

Online Site: www.wacsports.com

 

 

 

As The Bubble Blows

No teams played into The Bubble or out of The Bubble last night.  St. Mary’s should be an 11 or 12-seed.  Northeastern has no chance at an at-large bid.

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August 18, 2011

2011 Western Athletic Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:46 am

2011 Western Athletic Conference Preview

 

The WAC as we know it has been victimized by the Mountain West Conference.  In a move akin to the American League East losing the New York Yankees, the MWC stole Boise State.  Next year, Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno State will join the Broncos in the Mountain West, leaving this conference a mere shell of itself.  The future of this league is in serious jeopardy, and the addition of two new teams to FBS football in 2012 (Texas State and Texas-San Antonio, may not be enough to save this league.

 

Without Boise State, the WAC race will be more open this season.  Four teams have the talent to contend for the conference championship, while a fifth has the capability of finishing over .500.

 

Nevada finished in a three-way tie for first with Boise State and Hawaii, and the Wolf Pack finished #11 in the final poll.  Gone from the school’s best ever team are stellar quarterback Colin Kaepernick, the WAC’s leading rusher Vai Taua, receiver Virgil Green, 1st Team All-WAC tackle Jose Acuna and four of the top tacklers.

 

All is not gloomy in the biggest little town in America.  Coach Chris Ault will simply reload rather than rebuild, and with the absence of a blue turf in league play, Nevada will contend for a second consecutive WAC title.  

 

Tyler Lantrip is not the runner Kaepernick was, but he has a better arm.  Lantrip should pass for more yards this year than Kaepernick did last year (3,022).  He will get a Baptism under fire when the Wolf Pack play their first four games away from Reno.

 

Mike Ball is the new tailback in the Pistol Offense. Ball has speed and quickness to excel in this offense.  He averaged 6.8 yards per carry last year in limited action.  Lampford Mark will get his shares of touches and could challenge for a starting bid.

 

The top receiver in the WAC this year will be Rishard Matthews.  He may not lead in catches or yards, because those stats belong to Hawaii receivers, but Matthews is the best at his position.  The former Oregon recruit led Nevada with 56 receptions and averaged 15.7 yards per catch.  The unexpected loss of Brandon Wimberly, who was shot in the off-season, will force Matthews to face more double teams and combo defenses.

 

The offense will click because the blocking corps is the best in the league.  Junior Chris Barker is the best guard in the league, while center Jeff Meads is one of three really good snappers in the WAC.

 

Nevada averaged 41 points and 519 yards per game last year.  Those numbers will decline a little this year.  The Wolf Pack will not be able to move up and down the field at will, but in the new WAC, they can win the title with a 35 point and 450 yard performance.

 

Nevada’s defense was just as responsible for last year’s title run as the offense.  It surrendered just 21 points per game in a league where 28 points was average.  Seven starters return, including three with all-star accolades in 2010.

 

Up front, tackle Brett Roy is poised to contend for 1st Team All-WAC honors.  He introduced enemy QBs to the turf eight times last year.  The loss of 3rd round draft pick Dontay Moch will hurt.

 

Middle linebacker James-Michael Johnson should repeat as a 1st Team All-WAC defender.  He led the Pack with 88 tackles last year.  In the back line of defense, Isaiah Frey is one of the best cover corners in the league.  He batted away 14 passes and picked off another last year.

 

The non-conference schedule is tough this year.  Nevada opens at Oregon and plays at Texas Tech and at Boise State, all in the first four games.  The schedule gets easier from there with home games against rival UNLV and helpless New Mexico.  In WAC play, Nevada hosts the other three contenders, and this should help the Wolf Pack claim another conference championship.

 

Hawaii recovered from a subpar 2009 with a 10-win season last year.  Once again, it was an aerial circus on the island, as the Warriors averaged 394 yards through the air to lead the nation.  The Run ‘n’ Shoot offense took a major hit with the loss of eight starters, but we would be surprised if Hawaii did not average more than 300 passing yards again this season.

 

One of those trio of returnees is quarterback Bryant Moniz.  Moniz topped 5,000 passing yards last year and threw 39 touchdown passes.  He tends to hold onto the ball a little longer than an average run ‘n’ shoot passer, and he went down 40 times last year, seven against Boise State in the lone game that UH failed to score in double digits.

 

Moniz lost his top two receivers, and they combined for 207 receptions and almost 3,200 yards.  Royce Pollard will be the new 100+-reception receiver for the Warriors.  There are questions at the other receiver positions, as two players figured to be starters are ailing and missing practice.

 

As pass happy as Hawaii is, they still run the ball with authority.  Alex Green rushed for almost 1,200 yards last year, but he must be replaced.  Sterling Jackson will be the new starter, but he lacks the speed and quickness of Green.  He will be more of a between the tackles pounder.

 

The offensive line was above average but not great last year, and four starters have used up their eligibility, including the two best blockers.  It will take a few weeks for the newly rebuilt line to come together, so Moniz may be facing a lot more pressure than last year.

 

The Warriors never get much credit for their defensive play.  They gave up a respectable 25.5 yards per game last year, only 20 in league play.  Coach Greg McMackin believes in aggressive attacking defenses, and he has the players to cause a lot of disruption to enemy offenses.

 

The front seven is the best in the WAC by far, and Hawaii should lead the conference in sacks and in lowest rushing average allowed.  Up front, tackles Vaughn Meatoga and Kaniela Tuipulotu are the best tandem in the conference.  Few teams will find success running line plunges up the gut against Hawaii.

 

The Warriors make hay at the linebacker position with multi-tool players.  Corey Paredes is a WAC Player of the Year candidate.  He led the conference with 151 stops, and he picked off four enemy passes last year while knocking away five others.  Aaron Brown is another linebacker who is strong against both the run and pass.

 

The back line of defense is the vulnerable unit on this side of the ball.  The two starters lost combined for 12 interceptions and 27 total passes defended.  Safety Richard Torres will need to step up and break out with a big year.

 

As usual, Hawaii plays a 13-game schedule, which means they will play six non-conference games this year.  The Warriors should beat UNLV, UC-Davis, and Tulane.  The opener against Colorado is a toss-up, but we believe Hawaii will have several intangible factors in their favor in this one.  Games with Washington and BYU should be losses.  The Warriors will only need to go 3-4 in the league to get back to the Hawaii Bowl.  They could double that amount.

 

Louisiana Tech is not far away from being a serious title contender.  Second year head coach Sonny Dykes has not been able to fully implement his version of Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense.  He believes the Bulldogs are ready to start making the offense click.

 

If the offense is going to start putting up numbers similar to Texas Tech in the Leach years. New quarterback Colby Cameron is going to have to improve by a great amount.  Last year, in limited action, Cameron could not complete longer passes, unless you count the high percentage of passes completed to the wrong colored jersey.  He ended up with five picks in just 91 attempts.

 

The Bulldogs took a hit with the dismissal of projected starting receiver Ahmad Paige and Tim Molton.  The Bulldogs still have their two leading receivers from last year; Taulib Ikharo and Richie Casey combined for 92 receptions and 962 yards.

 

Lennon Creer is another pass catching threat coming out of the backfield.  He caught 25 passes last year, but his running acumen is what made him a 2nd Team All-WAC performer.  He gained 1,181 yards and scored 10 touchdowns.

 

The offensive line is not the best in the league, but it is not far from it.  The Bulldogs will be nearly lethal inside with excellent guards Kevin Saia and Oscar Johnson (Saia is nursing an injury) and center Stephen Warner.

 

Will this be the year LT breaks out with scary offensive numbers?  Probably not, but their numbers will head north.  Call it 270 passing yards and 425+ total yards with a scoring average of 30-32 points per game.

 

If the Bulldogs are to make an unexpected run for the conference title and earn a bowl bid for the first time in four seasons, their defense must improve.  Tech gave up 31 points and 460+ yards per game in 2010.

 

One area where there will be improvement is up front in the trenches.  The Bulldogs have an excellent pair of ends in Matt Broha and IK Enemkpali.  Broha has developed into a great pass rusher and led LT with nine sacks last year. 

 

Two starters return to the second line of defense.  Linebackers Jay Dudley and Adrien Cole combined for 174 tackles but only 6 ½ for minus yardage.  This number needs to go up, for it will not help improve the defense if too many of those tackles come at the end of five yard gains.

 

The secondary is loaded with depth, and this should be the unit that shows the greatest improvement in 2011.  Look for more interceptions and passes defended this season. 

 

Louisiana Tech hosts Hawaii, so the Bulldogs will play a 12-game schedule.  Four of their five non-conference games will be tough to win, so the Bulldogs will need five conference wins at the least to become bowl eligible.  They are capable of achieving that feat this year.  

 

Fresno State has been so good for so long, it is hard to believe the Bulldogs have never won the WAC.  You have to go back to the days of the old Big West Conference to find FSU’s last title, when the Bulldogs finished 11-1-0 and clobbered Ball State in the old California Bowl.

 

The WAC is down, so Fresno State will benefit, because this will not be Coach Pat Hill’s best Bulldog team.  Too many good players are missing from both sides of the ball.  One of those is quarterback Ryan Colburn, who completed better than 63% of his passes with a 23/9 TD/Int ratio last year.  The new QB has a familiar name on campus.  Derek Carr is the younger brother of former FSU great David.  Carr has five games of experience from 2009, but he missed all of last season.  Look for Carr to struggle early but begin to live up to his family name as the season progresses.

 

Running back Robbie Rouse returns after enjoying a big season in 2010.  He rushed for 1,129 yards and eight scores.  Former UCLA Bruin Milton Knox should see some action as well.

 

Jalen Saunders is the best FSU has at the receiver position, but he is not a threat to crack the 1st or 2nd team all-conference roster.  Saunders caught 30 passes and scored three times.

 

The offensive line is not a team strength.  It could actually be the weakest in the league.  Two starters return, and the three that departed were all-league players.  Expect a considerable retreat in sacks allowed and rushing yards per carry this year.

 

The defense gave up 30 points per game last year, but the Bulldogs allowed just 367 total yards per game.  Their 37 sacks topped the league charts, as Bulldog players finished one-two in the league.  One of those players returns this season.  Tackle Logan Harrell is back after recording 10 ½ sacks and 14 total tackles for loss.    Three new starters will line up in the trenches, so Harrell will see more double team blocks this year.

 

Travis Brown and Kyle Knox are back to wreak havoc from their linebacker positions.  The two teamed up for 153 tackles last year.

 

There are some concerns in the secondary, and if the pass rush is not as good as last year, it will be exploited.  Free safety Phillip Thomas is the star of this unit.  He intercepted three passes and knocked away nine others.

 

Fresno State has a 13-game schedule since they play at Hawaii.  It will be difficult to match last year’s eight wins, but the Bulldogs have a chance to compete in the weaker WAC.  We still see this team becoming bowl eligible.

 

San Jose State has fallen on hard times in the last two seasons, finishing 2-10 and 1-12.  Second year coach Mike MacIntyre has a lot of experience returning from a team that took its lumps early but became much more competitive in the second half of the season.  With 18 starters returning, we see the Spartans could win more games in 2011 than they won in 2009 and 2010 combined.

 

The big bugaboo is at the most important position on the team.  As of this writing in mid-August, MacIntyre has yet to choose a starter, or even a leader of the pack, from among three candidates.  Senior Matt Faulkner has limited experience, but that limited experience is the most on the squad.  Contending with Faulkner are sophomore Dasmen Stewart and redshirt freshman Blake Jurich.  Too bad former Michigan starter Tate Forcier will not be eligible until 2012.

 

SJSU has a nice stable of receivers, and if a quarterback can emerge and at least be decent, this unit could shine in 2011.  Noel Grigsby is a breakaway threat.  He can get open deep and has good hands.  The sophomore could emerge as a 1st Team All-WAC player.

 

The running game has been nonexistent for four years, as the Spartans have averaged 84, 87, 77, and 79 yards per game and less than three yards per carry.  Starter Brandon Rutley had one big run as a freshman when he broke free for a long touchdown against Boise State.  He has yet to show any flashes since then.  Actually, Rutley has been a better pass receiver than runner.  He did break off a long breakaway with a reception last year.  

 

The offensive line will be improved this season, but it will still be an overall liability.  Tackle Andres Vargas is the best of the quintet.

 

SJSU averaged just 16 points per game last year, but in four of their final five games, they averaged better than 30 points per game.  We see the Spartans scoring about 23-25 points per game this year.

 

The good news is that more than 11 (several saw more than 6 starts) defensive starters return in 2011; the bad news is that those starters were not all that good last year, as SJSU surrendered 464 yards per game (502 in league play) and nearly 35 points per game.

 

All joking aside, this defense will be much better this season.  In fact, the Spartans could easily shave 100 yards off what they allowed in WAC games.  It isn’t impossible that they could go from last to first in yards allowed!

 

Start in the secondary, where the four holdovers just might make up the best unit in the league.  The name “Peyton” is an important name in football, and SJSU has one of their own.  Peyton Thompson is the top cover corner in the league.  In 2010, he recorded 12 passes defended, and quarterbacks tended to throw away from him.  Safety Duke Ihenacho missed all of last year, but he should regain his starting job after earning 1st Team All-WAC honors in 2009.

 

The secondary will benefit from an improved pass rush this year.  End Travis Johnson led the Spartans with 7 ½ sacks as well as four QB hurries.  He leads a two-deep of experienced players in the trenches.

 

The second line of defense features the reigning WAC Freshman of the Year.  Keith Smith earned that award after leading the Spartans with 116 tackles and 14 tackles for loss.  

 

San Jose State starts off the season with three tough games, and the Spartans will begin in an 0-3 hole after facing Stanford, UCLA, and Nevada.  Road games with Colorado State and BYU will leave SJSU at no better than 1-5, so 2011 will not be the year the Spartans get back to the plus side of .500.  They can win three or four games though.

 

Utah State has endured losing season after losing season with false expectations of an end to that skein.  Last year looked like ‘the year” when the Aggies upset BYU to open the season 3-2.  A 1-6 finish doomed them to yet another sub-.500 year, as the offense failed to ignite.

 

Coach Gary Andersen will choose between Adam Kennedy and Chuckie Keeton as his starting quarterback.  Thus far, neither has emerged as a primetime player.  The Aggies had poor play at this position last year, so it will not take much to surpass the production of 2010.

 

The rest of the skilled positions are in good shape.  Former all-conference running back Robert Turbin missed last season with an ACL injury, but he appears to be ready to pound his way through defenses.  He rushed for almost 1,300 yards two years ago.

 

Seven of the top eight pass catchers are back for more this year, but it’s the return of two 2009 starters that missed last season that will make this unit much better this season.  Stanley Morrison could top 1,000 receiving yards.

 

The offensive line returns four starters and will be the best this unit has been under Andersen.  Center Tyler Larsen and guards Fuanki Asisi and Philip Gapelu will contend for some all-conference recognition.  Larsen made the 2nd Team Freshman All-American Team last year.

 

Utah State should improve its offensive number back to where they were prior to all the 2010 injuries.  We believe the Aggies could top 27 points and 380 yards per game.

 

Unfortunately, the outlook on the other side of the ball is a bit gloomy.  USU is a little suspect in the front line and only average in the secondary.  One area that will be a team strength is the linebacker position.  Bobby Wagner and Kyle Gallagher are studs.  Wagner is on NFL scouts’ radar.  He led USU with 135 tackles including eight for losses.

 

The secondary took a major graduation hit, but it returns its top player in safety Walter McClenton.  McClenton made 62 tackles, but Andersen would like to see him make less this year; too many of those tackles came about because opposing teams had already defeated the other 10 defenders on the field.

 

Up front, The Aggies were abysmal in 2010.  They recorded just 13 sacks and allowed opposing backs to gain five yards per carry.  Ends Quinn Garner and Levi Koshan are the lone holdovers from the two-deep, and Andersen is switching to a 3-4 defense to try to disguise this weakness.

 

USU surrendered 34 points and 430 yards per game last year.  We do not see much improvement if any this year.  To make matters worse, the Aggies lose both their punter and place kicker from last year.

 

The schedule includes non-league tilts against defending champ Auburn, BYU, and Wyoming.  Unfortunately, the easiest conference opponents, Idaho and New Mexico State, must be faced on the road.  It looks like another long year in Logan.

 

Idaho took a step back last year after earning and winning the most exciting bowl game of 2009.  The Vandals could be looking at a major rebuilding project on the attack side of the ball with the departure of quarterback Nathan Enderle and three of the top four receivers.  However, there is cautious optimism that the newcomers are as talented as those they will replace.

 

The new signal caller is senior Brian Reader.  Reader looked sharp in limited action last year and appears to be primed to equal Enderle’s production.

 

Reader’s passing targets are not the most talented players in the league, but there are a lot of options.  Preston Davis figures to be much improved now that he is fully recovered from an ACL injury in 2010.  Walk-on junior college transfer Mike Scott could emerge as a key contributor.

 

The running game did not show much in 2010, and it will be a liability again this year.  Four backs should split time at this spot, led by former Arizona State Sun Devil Ryan Bass and Kama Bailey.

 

The offensive line is strongest at the terminals, where Matt Cleveland and Tyrone Novikoff are big and strong.  Cleveland should contend for 1st Team All-WAC honors.

 

Idaho averaged 27 points last year, and we expect the Vandals to replicate that number this season. 

 

Even though the Vandals fell from 8-5 to 6-7 last year, the defense showed great improvement, shaving almost eight points off their average allowed.  Some of that had to do with an improved turnover margin.  The news is not all that good on this side of the ball.  UI was going to be strong at linebacker, but their top player, Robert Siavii suffered a season-ending knee injury in Spring practice.

 

The Vandals will rally around middle linebacker TreShawn Robinson, who recorded 10 total tackles for loss last year.  Homer Mauga returns to start at the other linebacker spot.

 

Up front, Idaho had a strong pass rush last year, but the chief instigator of mayhem is gone.  Aaron Lavarias departs after leading the team with 10 sacks.  Tackle Michael Cosgrove is the best of the holdovers.

 

The secondary returns three 2010 starters, but none of the trio figures to make 1st Team All-WAC accolades this year.  If the pass rush is weaker, this group will be exposed and give up more than 250 passing yards per game.

 

Idaho has a fair schedule.  Non-league games with Texas A&M, Virginia, and BYU figure to be automatic losses.  North Dakota figures to be an easy victory.  The season opener with Bowling Green is a rematch of that great 2009 Humanitarian Bowl, and we consider this game a must-win affair for the Vandals.  If they win, and Reader proves to be as capable as Enderler, this team could make this prediction look silly.  If they lose, then Coach Robb Akey could become achy over his future.

 

New Mexico State has been one of the five weakest teams in FBS football in recent years, but luckily for them, the worst team has been in-state rival New Mexico.  Third year coach DeWayne Walker must show some form of improvement this year, or he could be headed away from the Land of Enchantment.

 

The offense scored 14 or fewer points five times last year and averaged less than 16 for the season.  Former Kent State coach Doug Martin takes over as the new offensive Coordinator.  Martin hopes quarterback Andrew Manley can solve the problem at quarterback.  Manley completed just 52% of his passes with a 1/6 TD/Int ratio last year as a true freshman.  Former starter Matt Christian completed just 48% of his passes but had a much better 8/2 TD/Int ratio.  There is only one way to go for this position.

 

The big problem with the passing game is the receiving corps.  Not only are the top two pass catchers from last year missing, those that are returning do not offer much in the area of quickness or mobility.  Taveon Rogers is the closest thing to a star, and he only caught 18 balls last year.  Juco Transfer Kemonte Bateman could emerge as the leader here.

 

Robert Clay figures to start at running back with 2010 leading rusher Kenny Turner at H-back.  The tandem rushed for just 687 yards and two touchdowns.

 

The one bright spot on the offense is an experienced and improving offensive line.  Sioeli Fakalata can play center or guard, and he is the best man in the front line.

 

The Aggies should see improved numbers all around this season.  Look for about 21 points and 325 yards.  However, that will not be enough to move them out of the WAC basement.

 

The defense figures to take another step backwards after giving up 40 points and 450+ yards per game last year.  It doesn’t help when two of your top players are declared academically ineligible.  Those two, tackle Augafa Vaaulu and end Donte Savage figured to be the stars of the front four.  Now, the Aggies are hurting in the trenches.

 

The linebackers are more of a liability than an asset, even though two starters return from last season.  B. J. Adolpho was a 3rd Team All-WAC player last year, but he cannot make plays for the other six players in the front seven.

 

Any hope for defensive improvement must come from the secondary.  We fear that with little or no pass rush, the back four will eventually break down and give up too many big plays.  The Aggies may have the best tandem at cornerback with Donyae Coleman and Jonte Green.  Last year, the pair teamed for 166 tackles, many times being the last hope to prevent breakaway plays.

 

Things do not look hopeful for Walker and his Aggies.  At least they have a game with New Mexico, but that is not a given win.  Even though NMSU’s offense is much improved, they will not be able to outscore the other teams in the WAC.  It will be another long year in Las Cruces.

 

2011 WAC Preseason Media Poll

Team

1st Place Votes

Points

Hawaii

18

292

Fresno State

11

284

Nevada

11

264

Lousiana Tech

 

184

Utah State

 

166

Idaho

 

141

San Jose State

 

85

New Mexico State

 

60

 

 

2011 WAC PiRate Ratings

Team

PiRate #

Prediction

Nevada

101.4

7-1/8-4

Hawaii

98.4

5-3/8-5

Louisiana Tech

93.5

5-3/5-7

Fresno State

93.0

6-2/7-6

San Jose State

91.1

2-6/2-10

Utah State

90.2

2-6/3-9

Idaho

88.2

4-4/5-7

New Mexico State

78.8

1-7/1-11

 

Next: A look at the four independents, Friday, August 19

 

August 3, 2011

The PiRates Have Returned To Dry Land Ready For Football

When we last spoke with you, it was undecided whether we would present football ratings for 2011-12.  At the time, there was no end in sight for the NFL lockout, and we were head strong in support of boycotting the college football season as a show of opposition to the post-season bowls.

 

In July, as our gardens became tumbleweeds in the oppressive heat, we had some extra time on our hands to discuss just what we would do this year.  Upon further review, we have decided to issue our college ratings as usual, but only after we make a special post concerning the bowl games.  That will come next week. 

 

As for the NFL, it will be at least three to three and a half weeks before we can update the ratings due to the tight window of wheeling and dealing.  We will not be able to offer an in-depth preview of each NFL division like in past years—it will just be ratings and a brief synopsis of how we see the races and playoffs.  We will offer a brain-teasing trivia quiz dedicated to those 50 and over who remember the NFL/AFL at its best—in the 1950’s and 1960’s.  For those not gifted with gray hair or hairlessness yet, you just might learn some very interesting facts that you can spring on your friends at your local watering hole.  Some will be very tricky indeed.

 

Beginning August 15, we will begin previewing the college conferences.  Here is the schedule for those conference previews:

 

Monday, August 15:SunbeltConference

Tuesday, August 16: Mid-American Conference

Wednesday, August 17: ConferenceUSA

Thursday, August 18: Western Athletic Conference

Friday, August 19: Independents

Monday, August 22: Mountain West Conference

Tuesday, August 23: Big East Conference

Wednesday, August 24:AtlanticCoastConference

Thursday, August 25: Pacific 12 Conference

Friday, August 26: Big 12 Conference

Monday, August 29: Southeastern Conference

Tuesday, August 30: Big Ten Conference

 

We realize that about 15% of you reading this are fans ofVanderbiltUniversitydown inNashville, who followed our founder when he wrote for Vanderbilt Athletics.  We also realize that about 35% of you reading this are residents of the great state ofWisconsinor Badger fans living in the hinterlands.  Thus, on August 29, there will be expanded coverage of the Vanderbilt Commodores, and on August 30, there will be expanded coverage on the Wisconsin Badgers, as they compete for the first Leaders Division title and another conference championship in the exciting, expanded Big Ten.

 

Check back next week for an all-inclusive post about how you can boycott the bowl sponsors and help bring about a post-season playoff.  We have a fresh way of satisfying both the bowls and a playoff at the same time.  To those that have heard our proposal, we have received 100% approval of our idea.  Check back next week for that idea.

March 12, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 12 Update

Bucknell Joins The Dance Party

The Bucknell Bison earned the Patriot League’s automatic bid Friday with a 72-54 victory over Lafayette.  Versatile big man Mike Muscala led the Bison with 18 points while sharpshooter Bryson Johnson added 15.

 

Bucknell improved to 25-8 on the season.  They project to be a 12 or 13-seed.

 

12 More Bids To Go Out Saturday

 

This is the busiest day of the tournament schedule.  13 conferences will crown their champion, and four other conferences will conduct semifinal rounds.  All told, every single one of the 21 games scheduled will be televised nationally.  Do you have enough televisions and a good high-speed computer?

 

Here is a conference-by-conference look at all the action.

 

All Game Times EST

 

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

Quarterfinal Round

#1 North Carolina  61  #9 Miami  59

#4 Clemson  70  #5 Boston College  47

#2 Duke  87  #7 Maryland  71

#6 Virginia Tech  52  #3 Florida State  51 

 

Semifinal Round

#1 North Carolina (25-6)  vs. #4 Clemson (21-10)  1:30 PM  ESPN 

#2 Duke (28-4)  vs. #6 Virginia Tech (21-11)  3:45 PM  ESPN

 

All four teams are safely in the NCAA Tournament.  The Hokies secured a spot in the Dance with the nail-biting win over the Seminoles.

 

America East Conference

Championship Round

#5 Stony Brook (15-16)  at #2 Boston U (20-13)  12 Noon  ESPN2

 

Boston U won both regular season meetings.  The Terriers won 67-62 at home and 62-49 on the road.  They win with their defense, as they only shoot 40.6% from the field.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference—Atlantic City, NJ

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Dayton  68  #1 Xavier  67

#12 St. Joseph’s  93  #4 Duquesne  90  ot

#2 Temple  96  #10 LaSalle  76

#3 Richmond  55  #6 Rhode Island 45

 

Semifinal Round

#9 Dayton (21-12)  vs. #12 St. Joseph’s (11-21)  1 PM  CBS College

#2 Temple (25-6)  vs. #3 Richmond (24-7)  3:30 PM  CBS College

 

The Bubble teams will have to sweat it out all the way until Sunday.  At least one long shot will advance to the Championship Game.  Neither St. Joe’s nor Dayton is getting an at-large bid, and one of the two will be playing for an automatic bid Sunday.  Both Temple and Richmond are in the Dance.

 

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

Semifinal Round

#1 Kansas  90  #5 Colorado  83

#2 Texas  70  #3 Texas A&M  58

 

Championship Game

#1 Kansas (31-2)  vs. #2 Texas (27-6)  6 PM  ESPN

 

The Jayhawks are still playing for the overall number one seed, while Texas is probably locked in on a number two seed.  However, with Notre Dame losing, a Longhorn win could put them in the conversation, especially if Duke does not win the ACC Tournament.

 

Big East Conference—New York City

Semifinal Round

#9 Connecticut  76  #4 Syracuse  71  ot

#3 Louisville 83  #2 Notre Dame  77  ot 

 

Championship Game

#3 Louisville (25-8)  vs. #9 Connecticut (25-9)  9 PM  ESPN

 

Connecticut becomes the first team ever to play five games in five days in modern college basketball history.  Will they have anything left in the tank next week when it really counts?  Louisville’s win more than likely killed any chance for the Irish getting a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

 

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Ohio State  67  #8 Northwestern  61 ot

#4 Michigan  60  #5 Illinois  55

#7 Michigan State  74  #2 Purdue  56

#6 Penn State  36  #3 Wisconsin 33

 

Semifinal Round

#1 Ohio State (30-2)  vs. #4 Michigan (20-12)  1:40 PM  CBS

#6 Penn State (18-13)  vs. #7 Michigan State (19-13)  4 PM  CBS

 

Michigan State has now earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament.  Penn State might move from the Bubble to in the tournament with a win over the Spartans.

 

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Semifinal Round

#1 Long Beach State  74  #7 UC-Riverside  63

#5 UC-Santa Barbara 83  #3 Cal State Northridge 63

 

Championship Game

#1 Long Beach State (22-10)  vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (17-13)  8 PM  ESPN2

 

Long Beach State won both meetings against the Gauchos in the regular season, and neither game was close.  The 49ers are not going to become another Butler or even repeat the exploits of Northern Iowa last year, but they could scare a favored team in the first round.  If UCSB wins, then they will make a quick exit in the first round.

 

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

Semifinal Round

#4 Memphis  76  #8 East Carolina  56

#3 U T E P  66  #2 Tulsa  54

 

Championship Game

#3 UTEP (25-8)  vs. #4 Memphis (24-9)  11:30 AM  CBS

 

The host Miners blew Memphis off the floor 74-47 in their only regular season meeting.  That game took place on this court.

 

Ivy League Playoff

Harvard (23-5)  vs. Princeton (24-6)  at Yale University  4 PM  ESPN3.com 

 

If Princeton wins a close game, there is an outside chance that the Ivy League could get two bids.

 

Mid-American Conference—Cleveland

Semifinal Round

#6 Akron  79  #2 Western Michigan  68

#1 Kent State 79  #4 Ball State 68

 

Championship Game

#1 Kent State (23-10)  vs. #6 Akron (22-12)  6 PM  ESPN2

 

The winner goes dancing, while the loser can only hope for a trip to Madison Square Garden in late March.

 

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Semifinal Round

#4 Morgan State  61  #1 Bethune-Cookman  48

#2 Hampton  85  #6 Norfolk State  61

 

Championship Game

#2 Hampton (23-8)  vs. #4 Morgan State (17-13)  2 PM  ESPN2

 

Morgan State goes for a four-peat.  The Bears beat Hampton in the regular season 78-72.

 

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

Semifinal Round

#1 B Y U  87  #5 New Mexico  76

#2 San Diego State  74  #3 UNLV 72

 

Championship Game

#1 B Y U  (30-3)  vs. #2 San Diego State (31-2)  7 PM  Versus

 

Is the third time the charm for San Diego State?  The Aztecs’ two losses were to the Cougars.  If they can hold Jimmer Fredette under 35 points, we have a feeling that SDSU will cut down the nets. 

 

Both teams are legitimate threats to make it to the Sweet 16 and possibly a round or two farther.

 

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

Semifinal Round

#1 Arizona  67  #4 Southern Cal  62

#3 Washington 69  #7 Oregon 51

 

Championship Game

#1 Arizona (27-6)  vs. #3 Washington (22-10)  6 PM  CBS

 

This should be an exciting game, even though it will not greatly affect the NCAA Tournament seedings.

 

The two teams split the season series, but the Huskies came close to sweeping.  UW won by 17 at home and fell by a single point in Tucson.  We think this is a tossup game.

 

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

Quarterfinal Round

1W  Alabama 65  4E Georgia 59  ot

2E  Kentucky  75  3W  Ole Miss 66

1E  Florida  85  5E  Tennessee  74

3E  Vanderbilt  87  2W  Mississippi State  81

 

Semifinal Round

1W  Alabama (21-10)  vs. 2E  Kentucky (23-8)  1 PM  ABC

1E  Florida (25-6)  vs.  3E  Vanderbilt (23-9)  3:30 PM  ABC

 

Alabama played themselves into position to get one of the final at-large bids.  The Crimson Tide fans need to route against a Dayton or St. Joseph’s tournament championship in the Atlantic 10, because there is still little room for error for ‘Bama.

 

Kentucky looks unstoppable at times and then looks like a team that doesn’t belong in the tournament at others.  That’s what you get with a bunch of underclassmen and with no depth.

 

We believe this game will be close for most of the day, but the Wildcats will enjoy one nice spurt in both halves to hold off the Tide by six to 12 points.

 

Florida is playing about as well as either of their two National Champion teams.  It is hard to stop a team with five guys capable of scoring 20 points.  The Gators’ have few weaknesses.

 

Vanderbilt is a lot like Florida, but not as talented.  The Commodores have excellent outside shooters, but they cannot create their own shot like Florida’s outside shooters.  They have a couple of excellent inside scorers, but they can disappear against Florida’s inside players.  We look for the Gators to dominate this one from the beginning and win by double digits.

 

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Championship Game

#1 McNeese State (21-10)  vs. #7 UT-San Antonio (18-13)  4 PM  ESPN2

 

S W A C—Garland, TX

Semifinal Round

#4 Alabama State  73  #1 Texas Southern  66

#6 Grambling  81  #2 Jackson State  75  ot

 

Championship Game

#4 Alabama State (16-17)  vs. #6 Grambling (12-20)  8:30 PM  ESPNU

 

The winner of this game can definitely plan on heading to Dayton for a First Four game.

 

W A C—Las Vegas

Semifinal Round

#1 Utah State  58  #8 San Jose State  54

#2 Boise State 81  #3 New Mexico State  63

 

Championship Game

#1 Utah State (29-3)  vs. #2 Boise State (20-11) 10 PM  ESPN2

 

Utah State is definitely in the Dance, so if the Broncos can pull off the big upset, another bubble will burst somewhere else.

 

Note: St. Mary’s defeated Weber State Friday night 77-54 in a non-conference game that was scheduled only two months ago.  The Gaels appear to be safe as an at-large team.

March 11, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 11 Update

Patriot League Championship—4:45 PM EST On ESPN2

#6 Lafayette (13-18)  at #1 Bucknell (24-8)

 

Lafayette makes an appearance in the conference championship game for the second consecutive year.  The Leopards fell to rival Lehigh last season and were tabbed the best team in the league in the preseason.  They took a step backward and tumbled to sixth in the league.

 

Bucknell closed 2010 with an 8-2 finish and returned all five starters and most of their key reserves.  The Bison continued to play top-notch ball and ran away with the Patriot League title.  Bucknell is on fire, having won nine games in a row by an average of 72-60 and 22 of their last 24 games.

 

The Bison swept the series against their Keystone State rival, winning 75-56 in Lewisburg and 74-69 in overtime at Easton.  Tonight’s game is on the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, so Bucknell will enjoy the home court advantage.

 

In the earlier game in Lewisburg, Bucknell began the second half of a close game by going on a 20-3 run to put the game out of reach.  The Bison held Lafayette to 37% shooting and controlled the boards by 14.  In the game at Lafayette, Bucknell led 61-50 with four and a half minutes to go, but the Bison did not score another point in regulation.  Lafayette scored 11 consecutive points to force overtime and then briefly took a 64-61 lead at the start of the extra period.  The Leopards shot under 40% again and were outrebounded once again.

 

Bucknell goes just seven-deep, and all seven contribute to the offense.  Muscular big man Mike Muscala leads the way with 14.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.  The 6-11 Muscala has recorded six double-doubles in the last 15 games.  Bryson Johnson is an excellent long-range shooter, and he shoots 47% from three-point range.  As a team, Bucknell shoots 40.6% from behind the arc.

 

Lafayette led the entire game at Holy Cross in the conference tournament quarterfinal.  The Leopards placed five players in double figure scoring, and they stole the ball nine times to knock off the Crusaders.  In the semifinal round at number two seed American, the Leopards trailed by two points in the final seconds when Jim Mower buried a three-pointer as the clock expired to seal a double overtime victory.

 

If the Leopards are to pull off the big upset and advance to a First Four game in Dayton next week, big man Jared Mintz will have to neutralize Muscala.  Mintz gives away two inches in height, but he has the power to hold his own inside.  Mintz leads the Leopards with a 15.8 point scoring average and 5.8 rebound average.  Mower averages 12.4 points per game.

 

Thursday’s Results And Friday’s Games With NCAA Tournament Repercussions

All Times EST

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

1st Round

#9 Miami  69  #8 Virginia  62

#5 Boston College  81  #12 Wake Forest  67

#7 Maryland  75  #10 North Carolina State  67

#6 Virginia Tech  59  #11 Georgia Tech  43

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Miami (19-13)  vs. #1 North Carolina (24-6)  12 Noon  ESPN2

#5 Boston College (20-11)  vs. #4 Clemson (20-10)  Approx. 2:15 PM  ESPN2

#7 Maryland (19-13)  vs. #2 Duke (27-4)  7 PM  ESPN2

#6 Virginia Tech (20-10)  vs. #3 Florida State (21-9)  Approx. 9:15 PM  ESPN2

 

North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, and Boston College are in.  Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Miami are on the bubble.  Miami and Maryland must win today, or they are NIT-bound.  Virginia Tech is in a near must-win situation.  They are on the middle of the bubble.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference—Atlantic City, NJ

No Games Played Thursday

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Dayton (20-12)  vs. #1 Xavier (24-6)  12 Noon  CBS College

#12 St. Joseph’s (10-21)  vs. #4 Duquesne (18-11)  2:30 PM  CBS College

#10 LaSalle (15-17)  vs. #2 Temple (24-6)  6:30 PM  CBS College

#6 Rhode Island (19-12)  vs. #3 Richmond (24-7)  9 PM  CBS College

 

Xavier, Temple, and Richmond are in.  Duquesne must win the tournament to get in, so the bubble teams will be pulling for Dayton or Xavier to stop them in the semifinals.  Keep an eye on Rhode Island.  The Rams are capable of upsetting Richmond and Temple to get to the finals.

 

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Kansas  53  #9 Oklahoma State  52

#5 Colorado  87  #4 Kansas State  75

#2 Texas  74  #10 Oklahoma  54

#3 Texas A&M  86  #6 Missouri  71

 

Semifinal Round

#1 Kansas (30-2)  vs. #5 Colorado (21-12)  7 PM

#2 Texas (26-6)  vs. #3 Texas A&M (24-7)  9:30 PM

 

Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, and Colorado are in.  The Buffalos secured their bid yesterday, so the rest of this tournament is all about the seedings.

 

Big East Conference—New York City

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Connecticut  76  #1 Pittsburgh  74

#4 Syracuse  79  #5 St. John’s  73

#2 Notre Dame  89  #7 Cincinnati  51

#3 Louisville  81  #11 Marquette  56

 

Semifinal Round

#9 Connecticut (24-9)  vs. #4 Syracuse (26-6)  7 PM  ESPN

#2 Notre Dame (26-5)  vs. #3 Louisville (24-8)  Approx. 9:15 PM  ESPN

 

11, yes 11, teams will receive invitations Sunday evening.  This is the strongest league not just this year, but maybe since the Big East placed three teams in the Final Four in 1985.  This should be a great finish to the tournament, and Notre Dame has a chance to move to a number one seed if the Irish win it.  Any one of these four could still be playing in late March.

 

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

1st Round

#8 Northwestern  75  #9 Minnesota  65

#7 Michigan State  66  #10 Iowa  61

#6 Penn State  61  #11 Indiana  55

 

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Ohio State (29-2)  vs. #8 Northwestern (18-12) 12 Noon  ESPN

#4 Michigan (19-12)  vs. #5 Illinois (19-12)  Approx 2:20  ESPN

#2 Purdue (25-6)  vs. #7 Michigan State (18-13)  6:30 PM  Big Ten Network

#3 Wisconsin (23-7)  vs. #6 Penn State (17-13)  Approx. 8:45  Big Ten Network

 

Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois are in.  Michigan State can definitely punch a ticket with an upset over Purdue today, and they are still on the highest part of the bubble if they lose.  Northwestern and Penn State must win the tournament to get in, although the Nittany Lions could get in the discussion with a loss in the finals.  We would not be all that surprised if the Wildcats play Ohio State a close game, at least for 30 to 32 minutes.

 

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Long Beach State 79  #8 UC-Irvine  72

#5 UC-Santa Barbara  79  #4 Pacific  67

#7 UC-Riverside  70  #2 Cal Poly  66  ot

#3 Cal State Northridge  75  #6 Cal State Fullerton  54

 

Semifinal Round

#1 Long Beach State (21-10)  vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (16-13)  9:30 PM  ESPNU

#3 Cal State Northridge (14-17)  vs. #7 UC-Riverside (12-18)  12 Midnight  ESPNU

 

The champion is the only team that will advance.  Long Beach State has a minimal at best chance of winning a first round game if they are the champion.

 

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#8 East Carolina  75  #1 U A B  70  ot

#4 Memphis  66  #5 Southern Miss.  63

#3 U T E P  77  #6 Marshall  65

#2 Tulsa  81  #7 Rice  72

 

Semifinal Round

#2 Tulsa (19-12)  vs. #3 U T E P  (24-8)  3 PM 

#4 Memphis (23-9)  vs. #8 East Carolina (18-14)  5:30 PM

 

At this point, no team is guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance.  UAB played their way to the bottom half of the bubble with a loss to ECU.  Memphis and UTEP could possibly get into the conversation if they both advance to the championship game.  For now, we are projecting just the champion to make it into the tournament.  The host Miners enjoy a large home court advantage and should top Tulsa in a thriller today.

 

Mid-American Conference—Cleveland

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Western Michigan 67  #7 Bowling Green  56

#6 Akron  82  #3 Miami (O)  75  2ot

#1 Kent State  73  #8 Buffalo  62

#4 Ball State  76  #5 Ohio U  73  ot

 

Semifinal Round

#2 Western Michigan (20-11)  vs. #6 Akron (21-12)  7 PM

#1 Kent State (22-10)  vs. #4 Ball State (19-12)  9:30 PM

 

The MAC has been down in recent years, but the eventual champion of this tournament could be a formidable opponent as a number 13 or 14 seed for a better team in the first round. 

 

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Quarterfinal Round

#4 Morgan State  77  #5 North Carolina A&T  59

#6 Norfolk State  55  #3 Coppin State 53

 

Semifinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman (21-11)  vs. #4 Morgan State (16-13)  6 PM

#2 Hampton (22-8) vs. #6 Norfolk State (12-19)  Approx. 8:15 PM

 

These teams are playing for a probable spot in the First Four.  The first semifinal will be a thriller; the top-seeded Wildcats face the three-time defending champion Bears.

 

Hampton has been a surprise team, and they should have an easier contest and be more rested for the championship.

 

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

Quarterfinal Round

#1 B Y U  64  #9 T C U  58

#5 New Mexico  67  #4 Colorado State 61

#2 San Diego State  64  #7 Utah  50

#3 U N L V  69  #6 Air Force 53

 

Semifinal Round

#1 B Y U (29-3)  vs. #5 New Mexico (21-11)  9 PM  CBS College

#2 San Diego State (30-2)  vs. #3 U N L V  (24-7)  11:30 PM  CBS College

 

BYU, San Diego State, and UNLV are in.  Colorado State played themselves into the NIT with the loss yesterday to New Mexico.  As for the Lobos, with a third win over BYU today, they could get into the conversation, but they probably need to earn the automatic bid to go dancing.

 

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Arizona 78  #9 Oregon State  69

#4 Southern Cal  70  #5 California  56

#7 Oregon  76  #2 U C L A  59

#3 Washington 89  #6 Washington State 87

 

Semifinal Round

#1 Arizona (26-6)  vs. #4 Southern Cal (19-13)  9 PM  Fox Sports

#3 Washington (21-10)  vs. #7 Oregon (16-16)  11:30 PM  Fox Sports

 

Arizona, UCLA, and Washington are in.  Oregon must win this tournament to get in.  As for Southern Cal, the Trojans might work their way into one of the final bubble spots with an upset over the top-seeded Wildcats tonight.  Last night’s battle of the Evergreen State was one of the most exciting of the tournament season with the Huskies coming from behind to knock off arch-rival Washington State by two.

 

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

1st Round

#4E  Georgia  69  #5W  Auburn  51

#3W  Ole Miss  66  #6E  South Carolina  55

#5E  Tennessee  74  #4W  Arkansas  68

#3E  Vanderbilt  62  #6W  L S U  50

 

Quarterfinal Round

#1W  Alabama (21-10)  vs. #4E Georgia (20-10)  1 PM

#2E  Kentucky (22-8)  vs. #3W Ole Miss (20-12)  3:30 PM

#1E  Florida (24-6)  vs. #5E  Tennessee (19-13)  7:30 PM

#2W Mississippi State (17-13)  vs. #3E  Vanderbilt (22-9)  10 PM

 

Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are definitely in.  Tennessee is probably in and would only be out if a lot of surprise winners win the remaining conference tournaments.  The Vols would safely secure a spot with a win over the Gators. 

 

The big game in all of college basketball today is the Georgia-Alabama game.  Call this an extra play-in game.  The winner survives to the Dance, while the loser will be hosting an NIT game next week.

 

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Semifinal Round

#1 McNeese State  91  #4 Texas State  83

#7 UT-San Antonio  79  #3 Sam Houston State 70

 

Championship Game on Saturday

 

S W A C—Garland, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#4 Alabama State  81  #5 Alabama A&M 61

#6 Grambling  65  #3 Mississippi Valley  62

 

Semifinal Round

#2 Jackson State (17-14)  vs. #6 Grambling (11-20)  3:30 PM

#1 Texas Southern (19-11)  vs. #4 Alabama State (15-17)  9 PM

 

The Champion will probably be forced to play in the First Four.  Jackson State is on a mission after losing in the first round last year as the number one seed.

 

W A C—Las Vegas

Quarterfinal Round

#8 San Jose State  74  #4 Idaho 68

#3 New Mexico State  66  #6 Nevada  60

 

Semifinal Round

#1 Utah State (28-3)  vs. #8 San Jose State (17-14)  9 PM

#2 Boise State (19-11)  vs. #3 New Mexico State (16-16)  11:30 PM  ESPN2

 

Utah State is in and should be the higher seed in their first round game.  If the Aggies are upset, then one more bubble will burst.  The one WAC team that beat USU (Idaho) was knocked out of the conference tournament yesterday.

March 10, 2011

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 10 Update

Two Newest Dance Participants

 

Northeast Conference Championship

Long Island  85  Robert Morris  82 ot

 

In what may have been the most exciting championship game of the season, the home-standing Blackbirds and visiting Colonials exchanged leads all night.  Two missed three-point shots in the final seconds, one at the buzzer, was all that prevented this game from going to double overtime.

 

LIU opened with a cold shooting hand, and RMU took the lead.  Once the Blackbirds started hitting their shots, this became a game of runs.  LIU had the hot hand in the second half, but RMU kept getting enough offensive rebounds to keep the Colonials in the game.

 

Jamal Olasewere had a game-high 31 points to go with 11 rebounds; he scored seven points in the overtime.  Team leader Julian Boyd was held to just seven points, but the Blackbirds had excellent showings off the bench.  Jason Brickman tossed in 15 points and dished out eight big assists, while Kenny Onyechi added 13 points.

 

Russell Johnson and Velton Jones teamed up for 42 points for the losers.

 

LIU will be a formidable opponent for their favored foe in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Their style of play could cause severe matchup problems for a bigger, slower team, especially if that team is not the strongest ball-handling team.  If they were to be bracketed against BYU in the first round, it would be the thriller of the first round. 

 

Big Sky Conference Championship

Northern Colorado  65  Montana  60

 

This game was anticlimactic following the NEC Championship.  Montana kept the pace slow, and the Grizzlies shot out to a 7-0 lead in the first two and a half minutes.  UNC made a run to take its first lead at 17-16 on a three-point shot by Tate Unruh.

 

The lead switched hands several times the remainder of the half with the buzzer sending the teams to the locker tied at 31-31.

 

Montana maintained a small lead for most of the second half, until star guard Devon Beitzel took over.  His three-pointer at the 4:56 mark gave the Bears the lead for good.  Beitzel continued shooting and then forced Montana to foul him, and the Bears hung on to win.

 

Beitzel did not score until late in the first half, but the Big Sky Conference’s leading scorer finished with 27 points.

 

Montana center Brian Qvale hit a layup with 16 seconds remaining to cut the lead to 62-60, but following two made Beitzel free throws, Art Steward committed a turnover to seal the game. 

 

Steward led the Grizzlies with 16 points, while Qvale added 11.

 

Northern Colorado will be one of those teams that will be glad just to be there at the NCAA Tournament.  The Bears should make a quick exit in game one, unless they are chosen as one of the First Four #16 seeds.

 

13 Automatic Qualifiers To Date

Team Conference Record
Arkansas-Little Rock Sunbelt 19-16
Belmont Atlantic South 30-4
Butler Horizon 23-9
Gonzaga West Coast 24-9
Indiana State Missouri Valley 20-13
Long Island Northeast 27-4
Morehead State Ohio Valley 24-9
Northern Colorado Big Sky 21-10
Oakland Summit 25-9
Old Dominion Colonial 27-6
St. Peter’s Metro Atlantic 20-13
UNC-Asheville Big South 19-13
Wofford Southern 21-12

 

No Championship Games Are Scheduled For Thursday

 

Wednesday’s Results/Thursday’s Schedule

All Times EST

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

1st Round

#8 Virginia (16-14)  vs. #9 Miami (Fla) (18-13)  12 Noon

#5 Boston College (19-11)  vs. #12 Wake Forest (8-23)  Approx. 2:15 PM

#7 Maryland (18-13)  vs. #10 North Carolina State (15-15)  7 PM  ESPN2

#6 Virginia Tech (19-10)  vs. #11 Georgia Tech (13-17)  Approx. 9:15 PM

 

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

1st Round

#9 Oklahoma State  53  #8 Nebraska  52

#5 Colorado  77  #12 Iowa State  75

#10 Oklahoma  84  #7 Baylor  67

#6 Missouri  88  #11 Texas Tech  84

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Oklahoma State (19-12)  vs. #1 Kansas (29-2)  12:30 PM on ESPN2

#5 Colorado (20-12)  vs. #4 Kansas State (22-9)  3PM

#10 Oklahoma (14-17) vs. #2 Texas (25-6)  7 PM

#6 Missouri (23-9) vs. #3 Texas A&M (23-7)  9:30 PM

 

Big East Conference—New York City

2nd Round

#9 Connecticut  79  #8 Georgetown 62

#5 St. John’s  65  #13 Rutgers 63

#7 Cincinnati  87  #15 South Florida 61

#11 Marquette  67  #6 West Virginia  61

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Connecticut (23-9)  vs. #1 Pittsburgh (27-4)  12 Noon  ESPN

#5 St. John’s (21-10)  vs. #4 Syracuse (25-6)  Approx. 2:15 PM  ESPN

#7 Cincinnati (25-7)  vs. #2 Notre Dame (25-5)  7 PM  ESPN

#11 Marquette (20-13)  vs. #3 Louisville (23-8)  Approx. 9:15 PM  ESPN

 

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

1st Round

#8 Northwestern (17-12)  vs. #9 Minnesota (17-13)  2:30 PM  ESPN2

#7 Michigan State (17-13)  vs. #10 Iowa (11-19)  4:50 PM  ESPN2

#6 Penn State (16-13)  vs. #11 Indiana (12-19)  7:30 PM  Big Ten Network

 

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Long Beach State (20-10)  vs. #8 UC-Irvine (13-18)  3 PM

#4 Pacific (16-14)  vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (15-13)  5:20 PM

#2 Cal Poly (15-14)  vs. #7 UC-Riverside (11-18)  9 PM

#3 Cal State Northridge (13-17)  vs. #6 Cal State Fullerton (11-19)  11:20 PM

 

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

1st Round

#8 East Carolina  78  #9 Central Florida  60

#5 Southern Miss.  63  #12 Tulane  47

#6 Marshall  97  #11 Houston  87

#10 Rice  58  #7 S M U  57

 

Quarterfinal Round

#8 East Carolina (17-14)  vs. #1 U A B  (22-7)  1PM  CBSC

#5 Southern Miss (22-9)  vs. #4 Memphis (22-9)  3:30 PM  CBSC

#6 Marshall (22-10)  vs. #3 U T E P  (23-8)  7:30 PM  CBSC

#10 Rice (14-17)  vs. #2 Tulsa (18-12)  10 PM  CBSC

 

M A C—Cleveland

Quarterfinal Round

#7 Bowling Green (14-18)  vs. #2 Western Michigan (19-11)  12 Noon

#6 Akron (20-12)  vs. #3 Miami (O) (16-15)  2:30 PM

#8 Buffalo (18-12)  vs. #1 Kent State (21-10)  7 PM

#5 Ohio U (18-14)  vs. #4 Ball State (18-12)  9:30 PM

 

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Note: The MEAC has a unique scheduling format which rewards its top three seeds.  Thus, yesterday, there were both first round and quarterfinal round games scheduled.  The quarterfinal round concludes today.

 

1st Round

#6 Norfolk State  68  #11 Howard 53

 

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman  66  #9 South Carolina State 50

#2 Hampton  77  #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore  55

 

Quarterfinal Round Continues

#4 Morgan State (15-13)  vs. #5 North Carolina A&T (15-16)  8 PM

#3 Coppin State (16-13)  vs. #6 Norfolk State (11-19)  7 PM

 

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

1st Round

#9 T C U  70  #8 Wyoming  61

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 T C U (11-21)  vs. #1 Brigham Young (28-3)  3 PM

#5 New Mexico (20-11)  vs. #4 Colorado State (19-11)  5:30 PM

#7 Utah (13-17)  vs. #2 San Diego State (29-2)  9 PM

#6 Air Force (15-14)  vs. #3 U N L V  (23-7)  11:30 PM

 

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

1st Round

#9 Oregon State 69  #8 Stanford 67

#7 Oregon 76  #10 Arizona State 69

 

Quarterfinal Round

#4 Southern Cal (18-13)  vs. #5 California (17-13)  3 PM  Fox Sports

#1 Arizona (25-6)  vs. #9 Oregon State (11-19)  5:30 PM  Fox Sports

#2 U C L A  (22-9)  vs. #7 Oregon (15-16)  9 PM  Fox Sports

#3 Washington (20-10)  vs. #6 Washington State (19-11)  11:30 PM  Fox Sports

 

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

1st Round

#4E  Georgia (20-10)  vs. #5W  Auburn (11-19)  1 PM

#3W  Ole Miss (19-12)  vs. #6E  South Carolina (14-15)  3:30 PM

#4W  Arkansas (18-12)  vs. #5E  Tennessee (18-13)  7:30 PM

#3W  Vanderbilt (21-9)  vs. #6E L S U  (11-20)  10 PM

 

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#1 McNeese State 61  #8 Nicholls State 54

#4 Texas State 72  #5 Southeastern Louisiana 68

#7 Texas-San Antonio 97  #2 Northwestern State (LA) 96

#3 Sam Houston State 61  #6 Stephen F. Austin 45

 

Semifinal Round

#3 Sam Houston State (18-12)  vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (17-13)  7 PM

#1 McNeese State (20-10)  vs. #4 Texas State (16-15)  9:30 PM

 

S W A C–Garland, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Texas Southern 50  #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 45

#2 Jackson State 50  #7 Prairie View 38

 

Quarterfinal Round Continues

#3 Mississippi Valley (13-18)  vs. #6 Grambling (10-20)  12:30 PM

#4 Alabama State (14-17)  vs. #5 Alabama A&M (13-14) 9 PM

 

W A C—Las Vegas

1st Round

#8 San Jose State 75  #5 Hawaii 74

#6 Nevada 90  #7 Fresno State 80

 

2nd Round

#4 Idaho (18-12)  vs. #8 San Jose State (16-14)  3 PM  ESPNU

#3 New Mexico State (15-16)  vs. #6 Nevada (13-18)  5:30 PM  ESPNU

December 6, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: Final Regular Season

Have To Wait A Day

Normally, we would post how well our picks fared against the spread, but we must wait one day because the Monday Night Football game is part of a parlay.  Check back tomorrow to see how we did.

 

NCAA PiRate Simulated Playoffs Return

In what has been one of our most popular pieces, the NCAA Football Simulated Playoffs will return later this week.  For those of you new to this blog, we have access to a powerful computer simulator that we have used in the past to simulate real games, such as the bowls and the NFL playoffs.  It has been surprisingly accurate, especially in picking Super Bowl scores.

 

Here is how the PiRate Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs work.  We choose to go with a 12-team playoff.  We take the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and give them automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champions that finish in the top 16 of the BCS Standings also receive an automatic bid.  Then, at-large teams are selected based on BCS Standings until 12 teams have been selected.

 

Here are your 2010-11 NCAA Simulated Playoff Teams:

 

Automatic Qualifiers

ACC Champion: Virginia Tech

Big East Champion: Connecticut

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma

Pac-10 Champion: Oregon

SEC Champion: Auburn

 

Two other teams received automatic bids for winning (or finishing tied in) their conference and placing in the top 16 of the BCS Standings.

 

Mountain West Champion: T C U

WAC co-Champion: Boise State

 

This leaves four spaces for at-large teams.

 

At-large: Stanford

At-large: Ohio State

At-large: Arkansas

At-large: Michigan State

 

Now, the teams are seeded 1 to 12, and we use 11 bowls to play our playoffs.  Here are the seeds and brackets.

 

 1. Auburn

 2. Oregon

 3. T C U

 4. Stanford

 5. Wisconsin

 6. Ohio State

 7. Oklahoma

 8. Arkansas

 9. Michigan State

10. Boise State

11. Virginia Tech

12. Connecticut

 

Round One

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Outback Bowl Winner

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Insight Bowl Winner

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Alamo Bowl Winer

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Chick-fil-A Bowl Winner

 

Semifinal Round

Orange Bowl: Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Cotton Bowl Winner

Rose Bowl: Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner

 

Simper Bowl

National Championship Game: Orange Bowl Winner vs. Rose Bowl Winner

 

Check back next Monday for Round One results.

 

The Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

The regular season does not officially end until this weekend when Army plays Navy at Philadelphia.  That game will not affect the standings, so we will issue our final regular season ratings today and issue the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the Army-Navy game.

 

NCAA Top 25 December 6, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 132.5 12 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Auburn 131.0 13 0
5 Boise State 128.8 11 1
6 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
7 Oklahoma 127.7 11 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 124.2 11 2
12 Florida State 119.8 9 4
13 South Carolina 119.4 9 4
14 Nebraska 118.9 10 3
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 117.0 9 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Nevada 115.7 12 1
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Florida 115.3 7 5
23 Missouri 115.2 10 2
24t Arizona 115.2 7 5
24t Iowa 115.2 7 5
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-4 119.8
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 11-2 124.2
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 5-2 9-3 117.0
Pittsburgh 5-2 7-5 110.7
Connecticut 5-2 8-4 108.0
South Florida 3-4 7-5 106.9
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-5 4-8 100.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-6 4-8 89.5

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Illinois 4-4 6-6 104.4
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-3 118.9
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 11-2 127.7
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 10-3 102.9
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-6 92.7
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   7-5 108.9
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Miami (O) 7-1 9-4 90.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-3 104.1
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-11 80.4
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 9-0 12-0 132.5
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-5 7-5 115.2
Southern Cal 5-4 8-5 112.0
Arizona St. 4-5 6-6 111.0
Oregon St. 4-5 5-7 109.6
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 5-4 6-6 107.1
U C L A 2-7 4-8 101.8
Washington State 1-8 2-10 94.2

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-4 119.4
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 13-0 131.0
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-2 6-6 87.0
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 6-2 7-5 85.8
Middle Tennessee 5-3 6-6 82.8
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
Florida Atlantic 3-5 4-8 73.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 7-1 11-1 128.8
Nevada 7-1 12-1 115.9
Hawaii 7-1 10-3 108.9
Fresno State 5-3 8-4 98.2
Louisiana Tech 4-4 5-7 93.0
Idaho 3-5 6-7 88.1
Utah State 2-6 4-8 88.0
San Jose State 0-8 1-12 78.5
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Navy Army (Philadelphia) 14.4 31-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Saturday, December 11      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Navy Army  (Philadelphia) 31-23 27-21

 

 

A Look At The Bowls

 

Here are the particulars for the 35 bowl matchups for this year. 

 

All Times Eastern Standard

 

Saturday, December 18

The New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque, NM

2:00 PM  ESPN

B Y U  6-6  vs. U T E P  6-6

 

The Humanitarian Bowl—Boise, ID

5:30 PM  ESPN

Northern Illinois  10-3  vs. Fresno State  8-4

 

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl—New Orleans, LA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Troy  7-5  vs. Ohio U  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 21

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl—St. Petersburg, FL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Louisville  6-6  vs. Southern Mississippi  8-4

 

Wednesday, December 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl—Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM  ESPN

Utah  10-2  vs. Boise State  11-1

Boise State substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Thursday, December 23

San Diego Co. Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl—San Diego, CA

8:00 PM  ESPN

San Diego State  8-4  vs. Navy  8-3 (+ Army Game)

 

Friday, December 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu, HI

8:00 PM  ESPN

Hawaii  10-3  vs. Tulsa 9-3

 

Sunday, December 26

Little Caesar’s Bowl—Detroit, MI

8:30 PM  ESPN

Florida International  6-6  vs. Toledo  8-4

Florida International substitutes for a Big Ten Team

 

Monday, December 27

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl—Shreveport, LA

5:00 PM  ESPN-2

Georgia Tech  6-6  vs.  Air Force  8-4

 

Tuesday, December 28

Champs Sports Bowl—Orlando, FL

6:30 PM  ESPN

West Virginia  9-3  vs.  North Carolina St.  8-4

 

Insight Bowl—Tempe, AZ

10:00 PM  ESPN

Missouri  10-2  vs.  Iowa  7-5

 

Wednesday, December 29

Military Bowl—Washington, DC

2:30 PM  ESPN

Maryland  8-4  vs.  East Carolina  6-6

 

Texas Bowl—Houston, TX

6:00 PM  ESPN

Baylor  7-5  vs. Illinois  7-5

 

Valero Alamo Bowl—San Antonio, TX

9:15 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma State  10-2  vs.  Arizona  7-5

 

Thursday, December 30

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl—Ft. Worth, TX

12 Noon  ESPN

S M U  7-6  vs. Army  6-5 (+ Navy Game)

 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl—New York, NY

3:20 PM  ESPN

Syracuse  7-5  vs. Kansas State  7-5

 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl—Nashville, TN

6:40 PM  ESPN

Tennessee  6-6  vs.  North Carolina  7-5

 

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl—San Diego, CA

10:00 PM  ESPN

Nebraska  10-3  vs.  Washington  6-6

 

Friday, December 31

Meineke Car Care Bowl—Charlotte, NC

12 Noon  ESPN

Clemson  6-6  vs.  South Florida  7-5

 

Hyundai Sun Bowl—El Paso, TX

2:00 PM  CBS

Miami (FL)  7-5  vs. Notre Dame  7-5

Notre Dame Substitutes for Pac-10 Team

 

AutoZone Liberty Bowl—Memphis, TN

3:30 PM  ESPN

Georgia  6-6  vs.  Central Florida  10-3

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta, GA

7:30 PM  ESPN

South Carolina  9-4  vs. Florida State  9-4

 

Saturday, January 1

Ticket City Bowl—Dallas, TX

12 Noon  ESPN-U

Northwestern  6-6  vs.  Texas Tech  7-5

 

Outback Bowl—Tampa, FL

1:00 PM  ABC

Florida  7-5  vs.  Penn State  7-5

 

Capital One Bowl—Orlando, FL

1:00 PM  ESPN

Michigan State  11-1  vs.  Alabama  9-3

 

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville, FL

1:30 PM  ESPN-2

Michigan  7-5  vs.  Mississippi State  8-4

 

Rose Bowl—Pasadena, CA

5:00 PM  ESPN

T C U  12-0  vs.  Wisconsin  11-1

 

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Oklahoma  11-2  vs. Connecticut  8-4

 

Monday, January 3

Discover Orange Bowl—Miami, FL

8:30 PM  ESPN

Virginia Tech  11-2  vs. Stanford  11-1

 

Tuesday, January 4

All-State Sugar Bowl—New Orleans, LA

8:30 PM  ESPN

Arkansas  10-2  vs. Ohio State  11-1

 

Thursday, January 6

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile, AL

8:00 PM  ESPN

Middle Tennessee State  6-6  vs.  Miami (OH)  9-4

 

Friday, January 7

AT&T Cotton Bowl—Arlington, TX

8:00 PM  Fox

Texas A&M  9-3  vs. L S U  10-2

 

Saturday, January 8

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham, AL

12 Noon  ESPN

Pittsburgh  7-5  vs. Kentucky  6-6

 

Sunday, January 9

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl—San Francisco, CA

9:00 PM  ESPN

Boston College  7-5  vs.  Nevada  12-1

Boston College Substitutes for a Pac-10 Team

 

Monday, January 10

National Championship Game—Glendale, AZ

8:30 PM  ESPN

Auburn  13-0  vs.  Oregon  12-0

November 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 2-4, 2010

PiRate Ratings Go Perfect 3-0

After suffering through our first losing week of the season last week when we finished 2-2-1, we decided to go with three, 13-point sweetheart teasers.  We won all three.  We went back to what was working and found three gems.  Let’s take a look at the three selections we made for our customers.

1. Texas A&M +10 vs. Texas, West Virginia +16 vs. Pittsburgh, South Florida +25 vs. Miami, and Tennessee +10 vs. Kentucky

WON

We went with a theme in these picks.  We had three rivalry games where we believed all three offered us a chance to take a rival with an edge over their opponent.

Texas A&M was on a roll, having disposed of both Oklahoma and Nebraska, while Texas was going the opposite direction.  We thought the Aggies would win outright and took 10 points insurance.

We also believed that West Virginia had a slight edge over Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl.  Getting 16 points felt like a huge gift.  When we issued our selections last Wednesday afternoon, we told our customers that we thought the Mountaineers would be playing for Coach Bill Stewart’s job.  Ironically, when WVU won, it may have sealed Pitt coach Dave Wannstedt’s fate.  Stewart appears to be set to retire any way.

As for the Tennessee game, we knew the Vols were playing for bowl eligibility, and they had defeated Kentucky every year since 1984.  Getting 10 points at home was yet another gift.

2. Wake Forest +19 vs. Vanderbilt, Minnesota +28 ½ vs. Iowa, Boston College +16 vs. Syracuse, and Kansas +38 vs. Missouri

WON

In this teaser, we went with underdogs that we felt would have a good chance to beat the regular spread but would most definitely cover with an extra 13 points.

We told our customers that we believed that Vanderbilt could not beat any FBS team by 19 points at this point in the season, and that the Demon Deacons stood a better than 50-50 chance of winning outright.  We believed that the Gophers would keep the game with Iowa close and have a chance to win Floyd of Rosedale back.  Iowa had little desire after losing close games to fall out of the Big Ten race.

Our key pick this week was the Boston College selection at +16, because we figured that Syracuse would not top 14 points.  We had to sweat out the Kansas-Missouri game, but the Jayhawks just covered.

3. Dallas Cowboys +17 vs. New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills +19 ½ vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars +20 vs. New York Giants, and Chicago Bears +16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

WON

We went with underdogs in our NFL pick, which has been our most reliable strategy all season.  Too much parity means lower spreads and more underdogs covering and winning outright.  All four of these games were never in doubt.

Championship Week

Five conferences crown their conference champion by way of a championship game this week.  Here is a little primer of those games.

Friday, December 3

The Mid-American Conference Championship Game at Ford Field in Detroit

6:00 PM EST on ESPN2

Northern Illinois 10-2 vs. Miami (Ohio) 8-4

Saturday, December 4

The Conference USA Championship Game at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando

12 Noon EST on ESPN

S M U 7-5 at Central Florida 9-3

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Southeastern Conference Championship Game at The Georgia Dome in Atlanta

3:00 PM EST on CBS

Auburn 12-0 vs. South Carolina 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————-

The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte

6:45 PM EST on ESPN

Virginia Tech 10-2 vs. Florida State 9-3

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The Big 12 Conference Championship at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas

7:00 PM EST on ABC

Oklahoma 10-2 vs. Nebraska 10-2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 29, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 133.1 12 0
2 Oregon 131.9 11 0
3 Stanford 131.8 11 1
4 Boise State 130.6 10 1
5 Ohio State 128.3 11 1
6 Auburn 127.5 12 0
7 Oklahoma 127.1 10 2
8 Alabama 126.2 9 3
9 Wisconsin 125.2 11 1
10 Arkansas 124.7 10 2
11 Virginia Tech 123.1 10 2
12 South Carolina 122.9 9 3
13 Florida State 120.9 9 3
14 Nebraska 119.5 10 2
15 Texas A&M 118.5 9 3
16 L S U 117.7 10 2
17 West Virginia 116.8 8 3
18 Oklahoma State 116.3 10 2
19 Arizona 116.3 7 4
20 Georgia 115.7 6 6
21 Mississippi State 115.6 8 4
22 Nevada 115.3 11 1
23 Florida 115.3 7 5
24 Missouri 115.2 10 2
25 Iowa 115.2 7 5
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 9-3 120.9
Clemson 4-4 6-6 111.0
North Carolina State 5-3 8-4 110.2
Maryland 5-3 8-4 105.9
Boston College 4-4 7-5 105.0
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9 92.0
Coastal Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 8-0 10-2 123.1
Miami-FL 5-3 7-5 115.2
North Carolina 4-4 7-5 114.8
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-6 108.5
Duke 1-7 3-9 95.9
Virginia 1-7 4-8 95.0
 

Big East Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 4-2 8-3 116.8
Pittsburgh 4-2 6-5 108.6
Connecticut 4-2 7-4 107.6
South Florida 3-3 7-4 107.3
Louisville 3-4 6-6 104.1
Cincinnati 2-4 4-7 102.8
Syracuse 4-3 7-5 100.0
Rutgers 1-5 4-7 89.7
 

Big Ten

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 7-1 11-1 128.3
Wisconsin 7-1 11-1 125.2
Iowa 4-4 7-5 115.2
Michigan State 7-1 11-1 110.7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 105.3
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Penn State 4-4 7-5 104.6
Minnesota 2-6 3-9 96.1
Northwestern 3-5 7-5 92.9
Purdue 2-6 4-8 91.1
Indiana 1-7 5-7 90.1
 

Big 12

North Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 10-2 119.5
Missouri 6-2 10-2 115.2
Kansas State 3-5 7-5 100.0
Colorado 2-6 5-7 99.6
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-7 3-9 88.2
South Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 6-2 10-2 127.1
Texas A&M 6-2 9-3 118.5
Oklahoma State 6-2 10-2 116.3
Texas 2-6 5-7 106.3
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 7-5 104.4
 

Conference USA

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 7-1 9-3 103.2
Southern Mississippi 5-3 8-4 98.4
East Carolina 5-3 6-6 90.0
U A B 3-5 4-8 86.3
Marshall 4-4 5-7 83.8
Memphis 0-8 1-11 70.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 6-2 9-3 98.3
Houston 4-4 5-7 96.3
S M U 6-2 7-5 92.4
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 3-5 4-8 84.5
Tulane 2-6 4-8 74.6
 

Independents

Team Overall Rating
Notre Dame 7-5 108.9
Navy 8-3 102.6
Army 6-5 88.2
 

Mid American Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-3 8-4 92.6
Ohio U 6-2 8-4 89.4
Miami (O) 7-1 8-4 87.8
Kent St. 4-4 5-7 82.9
Bowling Green 1-7 2-10 75.0
Buffalo 1-7 2-10 70.2
Akron 1-7 1-11 67.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 8-0 10-2 106.9
Toledo 7-1 8-4 89.3
Western Michigan 5-3 6-6 88.8
Central Michigan 2-6 3-9 83.7
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-6 2-10 66.9
 

Mountain West Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 133.1
Utah 7-1 10-2 111.1
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-3 6-6 104.8
S. D. State 5-3 8-4 104.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-6 2-10 82.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 75.2
 

Pac-10 Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 8-0 11-0 131.9
Stanford 8-1 11-1 131.8
Arizona 4-4 7-4 116.3
Southern Cal 4-4 7-5 111.0
Oregon St. 4-4 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 3-5 5-6 109.9
California 3-6 5-7 108.4
Washington 4-4 5-6 106.9
U C L A 2-6 4-7 102.8
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4
 

Southeastern Conference

East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 9-3 122.9
Georgia 3-5 6-6 115.7
Florida 4-4 7-5 115.3
Tennessee 3-5 6-6 106.0
Kentucky 2-6 6-6 105.9
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-10 86.8
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Auburn 8-0 12-0 127.5
Alabama 5-3 9-3 126.2
Arkansas 6-2 10-2 124.7
L S U 6-2 10-2 117.7
Mississippi State 4-4 8-4 115.6
Ole Miss 1-7 4-8 100.1
 

Sunbelt Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 6-1 6-5 88.4
Arkansas State 4-4 4-8 83.9
Troy 5-2 6-5 82.8
Middle Tennessee 4-3 5-6 81.4
North Texas 3-5 3-9 79.7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-4 5-7 78.1
U. of Louisiana 3-5 3-9 77.6
Florida Atlantic 3-4 4-7 76.7
Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10 75.1
 

Western Athletic Conference

Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-1 10-1 130.6
Nevada 6-1 11-1 115.3
Hawaii 7-1 9-3 106.8
Fresno State 5-3 7-4 97.5
Louisiana Tech 4-3 5-6 93.6
Idaho 2-5 5-7 89.3
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-7 1-11 77.3
New Mexico State 1-7 2-10 71.9
 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARIZONA Arizona St. 8.9 31-22
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Illinois FRESNO STATE 4.1 31-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)   (Detroit) 19.1 42-23
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Southern Cal U C L A 6.2 34-28
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 2.7 20-17
Oregon OREGON STATE 18.7 45-26
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 10.0 31-21
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 30.1 42-12
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 2.8 24-21
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 10.0 34-24
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3.1 30-27
BOISE STATE Utah State 47.4 61-14
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 18.2 35-17
IDAHO San Jose State 14.5 38-23
HAWAII U n l v 28.3 49-21
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 4.6 35-30
Virginia Tech Florida State (Charlotte) 2.2 25-23
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 13.8 35-21
Oklahoma Nebraska (Dallas) 7.6 21-13
 

This Week’s Games–Mean and Bias Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, December 2
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARIZONA Arizona St. 31-21 27-24
Friday, December 3
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Illinois FRESNO STATE 34-31 34-27
Northern Illinois Miami (O)  (Detroit) 35-24 41-20
Saturday, December 4
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Southern Cal U C L A 31-21 30-21
SOUTH FLORIDA Connecticut 27-24 27-23
Oregon OREGON STATE 49-26 51-19
Washington WASHINGTON STATE 35-27 35-20
WEST VIRGINIA Rutgers 34-14 34-14
Pittsburgh CINCINNATI 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA INT’L Middle Tennessee 34-22 28-26
Troy FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-24 34-28
BOISE STATE Utah State 56-20 59-17
Nevada LOUISIANA TECH 37-17 35-31
IDAHO San Jose State 42-24 45-28
HAWAII U n l v 49-20 48-14
Auburn South Carolina (Atlanta) 38-24 34-24
Virginia Tech Florida State  (Charlotte) 26-25 27-19
CENTRAL FLORIDA S m u 34-26 35-30
Oklahoma Nebraska  (Dallas) 21-16 22-20
 

Bowl Projections

Bowl

Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) B Y U 6-6 WAC (#3?) Fresno St. 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 Miami (O) 8-5 WAC #(1) or 2 Boise St. 11-1
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 UTEP 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 Southern Miss 8-4
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Ga. Tech 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 S. D. State 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Tulsa 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Louisville 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 Notre Dame 7-5 ACC #3 N. C. State 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Boston Coll. 7-5 C-USA #6 E C U 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Penn State 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Oklahoma St. 10-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 S M U 7-6 MWC #3-5/Army Army 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 7-5 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 8-4
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 Washington 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 8-4 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 Miami (FL) 7-5 Pac 10 #4 [Ohio U 8-4]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #2 Florida State 9-4
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 7-5
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. 11-1 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Illinois 7-5 SEC #6 Florida 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 T C U 12-0 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Stanford 11-1
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large West Va. 9-3
Sugar BCS SEC Ohio State 11-1 BCS At-Large Arkansas 10-2
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 7-5 MAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Nebraska 10-3 SEC #3-6 W Alabama 9-3
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Pittsburgh 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Temple 8-4] WAC #1 Nevada 11-1
Championship Game *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Auburn 13-0
Teams in ALL CAPS and Italicized have already accepted a bid to this bowl
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large invitees because a conference cannot supply a qualified team

November 22, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 23-27, 2010

The Winning Streak Comes To An End

It had to happen.  We knew we could not go through the entire season with one winning week after another.  Our luck ran dry this weekend.  Our picks went 2-2-1 against the spread, which in our terms, is a losing week, since you lay 10-11 odds when picking straight sides.

 

Perhaps we should not have deviated from our sweetheart teaser picks, but we liked the five games we selected.  Let’s quickly reveal our picks so we can move on and talk college football

 

1. Tennessee -9 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

Okay, if you are one of our regular subscribers to our handicapping service, maybe you did enjoy a winning week.  For, we told you that we felt that the Vols had a 99% chance of covering at -9.  If you decided to make this your only pick, then you went 1-0.

 

Vanderbilt has run out of gas, while Tennessee is on their annual November roll.  The final score was only 24-10, and we had to sweat out a late Vandy run with backup quarterback Jared Funk.

 

2. Ohio State -3 vs. Iowa

Push

This game surprised us a bit.  We felt as if the Buckeyes were ready to pull off a two touchdown win, and when the offense struggled early, we were concerned.  Ohio State is not as strong as they were supposed to be, and they should not have gained ground on Wisconsin in the BCS standings. 

 

3. Texas A&M + 2 ½ vs. Nebraska

WON

Please don’t let Bo Pelini hear this.  We told our subscribers that we had a sneaky suspicion that Nebraska would see a lot of questionable officiating calls go against them in this game, just like it happened against Texas.  The national media has to put on a good face, but we could care less about stepping on toes of the Big 12 Conference.  We warned our fans on Thursday that we suspected this would happen.  The game was considered a tossup, so we felt A&M would win by a touchdown.  It was only by a field goal, but we won any way.

 

4. Cleveland Browns + 1 ½ vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lost

The Browns’ short flirtation with respectability has gone back into hibernation.  We blew this one royally, thinking the boys from Lake Erie would win by 7-10 points.

 

5. San Francisco 49ers + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Lost

Tampa Bay has proven they are playoff worthy.  San Francisco’s offensive woes continue, and yet they are still in contention in the worst division in the history of NFL football.

 

A Look At The FBS Conference Races and Bowls

There are 35 bowls this year.  Thus, 70 teams need to be bowl eligible.  With two weeks to go in the season, only 64 teams are bowl eligible.  It is a sure thing that at least one or two others will gain bowl eligibility due to the schedule.  What happens if the magic number falls short of 70?  Will the NCAA allow 5-7 teams into the bowls?  Who would want to see a 5-7 and 6-6 team face off in a loser bowl?

 

A 12-team playoff, using the top 11 bowls would leave 24 bowls for the rest of the NCAA.  This would not be a problem.  The bowl that might end up with a 5-7 team would end up with a 7-5 or 8-4 team under a 12-team playoff.

 

The PiRate Ratings have conducted simulated NCAA football playoffs the past two seasons, and we will do so again after the end of the regular season.

 

Let’s look at each conference as it stands today.

 

A C C

Virginia Tech has sewn up the Coastal Division Championship.  They will face either North Carolina State or Florida State.  If N.C. State beats Maryland, they win the division title.  If Maryland wins, Florida State goes to the ACC title game.

 

Nine teams are already bowl eligible, and the conference has eight bowl tie-ins.  Expect all nine teams to land in bowls.

 

 

Big East

No team in this league belongs in a BCS bowl game.  TCU and Boise State are 21 points better than the best team in the Big East.  The cold hard fact is that the winner of this conference will be the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl picks—the Fiesta Bowl. 

 

Pittsburgh has a one game lead over West Virginia and Connecticut.  They would lose a three-way tiebreaker if the three finished 5-2.

 

Connecticut, South Florida, and Syracuse are bowl eligible.  Louisville is one win away, while Cincinnati and Rutgers are still in contention at 4-6.  We think UL will get that sixth win this week against Rutgers, while Cincinnati falls short.  Throw in Notre Dame, which will finish no worse than 6-6, and there will be enough teams to satisfy the league’s allotment.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Three teams are in contention for the Rose Bowl with one week to go.  Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State are tied at 6-1.  If they all win this week, the highest ranked team in the BCS rankings will get the Rose Bowl bid.  Wisconsin holds a marginal lead over Ohio State.  The Badgers face Northwestern, while the Buckeyes host Michigan.  It will be a close vote if both win.  Michigan State wins a tiebreaker with Wisconsin, while Wisconsin wins a tiebreaker with Ohio State.  If Ohio State and Michigan State finish tied at 7-1, the Buckeyes will be the higher ranked team in the BCS and go to the Rose Bowl.

 

Eight teams are bowl eligible, and there is a decent chance that a second team will get a BCS at-large bid.  That would make nine bowl openings for eight teams, and the need for an at-large representative for the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

 

 

 

Big 12

The Big 12 is out of the national championship picture this year.  Nebraska will win the North Division with a win over Colorado or a Missouri loss to Kansas.  Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma to wrap up the South Division, but the Sooners could easily win this game.  If Texas A&M beats Texas, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, it will take five steps into the conference’s tiebreaker rules to determine the representative for the Big 12 Championship Game.  Oklahoma would hold the leg up over the other two.

 

Colorado and Texas need wins to gain bowl eligibility, but it is our opinion that both will lose their finales and miss out.  That will leave eight bowl eligible teams for eight bowls.

 

 

 

Conference USA

In the East, Central Florida is as close to in the league title game as a team can be and not already have it clinched.  UCF only needs to beat hapless Memphis to secure the division flag.  It is a certainty.

 

In the West, SMU controls its own destiny.  However, the Mustangs play at East Carolina this week.  We believe the Pirates will win.  That means Tulsa would capture the flag with a win over Southern Miss.  We will give the Golden Hurricane the edge.

 

Houston needs a win at Texas Tech to gain bowl eligibility, but the Cougars are wounded without their top two quarterbacks.  No bowl for Houston this year.

 

 

 

Independents

Navy is bowl eligible, and the Midshipmen have already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl.  Army is also bowl eligible, and they will get an at-large selection somewhere.  Notre Dame is bowl eligible, and they will either receive one of the Big East bowl bids or an at-large bid.

 

 

Mid-American

As usual, there are always more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids for the MAC.  Ohio, Temple, and Miami (O) from the East and Northern Illinois and Toledo from the West are bowl eligible.  Western Michigan will become bowl eligible with a win at Bowling Green.  That will leave six teams available for three bids.  Expect five of the six to go bowling.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

TCU’s blowout win over New Mexico this week will give the Horned Frogs their second consecutive undefeated regular season finish and at-large selection to a BCS Bowl.  There is a small chance that they could play for the National Championship.  Their BCS ranking will drop by playing the 1-10 Lobos, while Boise State finished on the road against a ranked team.

 

Five teams are bowl eligible, and all five will go to bowls.  That will leave one bowl spot open for an at-large invitee—the New Mexico Bowl.

 

 

 

Pac-10

This is the messy conference.  To start out, Southern Cal is ineligible for a bowl.  Throw in the chance that Stanford will receive an at-large BCS Bowl bid.  Now, top it off with the fact that Arizona is the only other bowl eligible team at this point.  California, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona State are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, but we believe only one of these five will do it.  That means this league could fall three bids short.

 

 

 

Southeastern

“As the Cam Turns” is the top-rated soap opera in the South during November sweeps.  It just may turn south on Auburn this week.  We think Alabama is going to end the Tigers’ championship hopes this week.  We cannot see any scenario where Auburn would jump Boise State and TCU after losing this late in the season.  It is no gimme that the Tigers can beat South Carolina twice in one season.

 

LSU can grab an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl with a win at Arkansas, but we believe the Razorbacks will put an end to those aspirations.

 

Georgia and Tennessee need victories this week to gain bowl eligibility.  We think both will be victorious.  That will leave 10 bowl eligible teams for nine bowls and an at-large bid.

 

 

 

 

Sunbelt

Somebody has to win this league.  With two weeks left in the season, one for UL-Monroe, no team has earned bowl eligibility.  The schedule guarantees that at least one team will become bowl eligible, and we think at least two will pick up a sixth win.  For a change, Troy may not win the conference championship.

 

 

 

Western Athletic

Boise State has a tough finale at Nevada this week, but we do not believe the boys from Reno have a strong enough defense to slow down the Broncos.  Boise State is our top-rated team, and we feel like they would be a field goal choice over Oregon in a national title game.  A win at Nevada should allow the Broncos to jump over TCU in the BCS standings, and if Auburn loses to Alabama, it should put BSU into the number two slot.

 

Louisiana Tech and Idaho still have remote chances at bowl eligibility, but we think both will fall one game short.  With BSU getting a BCS Bowl bid, the WAC will fall one team short in its bowl obligations. 

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings

NCAA Top 25 November 22, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Boise State 134.6 10 0
2 T C U 132.9 11 0
3 Oregon 132.1 10 0
4 Stanford 129.7 10 1
5 Alabama 127.5 9 2
6 Ohio State 127.1 10 1
7 Oklahoma 127.0 9 2
8 Auburn 126.2 11 0
9 Arkansas 124.4 9 2
10 Virginia Tech 122.8 9 2
11 Wisconsin 122.7 10 1
12 South Carolina 121.1 8 3
13 Texas A&M 118.8 8 3
14 Nebraska 118.8 9 2
15 Florida State 118.2 8 3
16 L S U 118.0 10 1
17t Florida 118.0 7 4
17t Miami (Fla) 118.0 7 4
19 Iowa 117.3 7 4
20 Oklahoma State 116.4 10 1
21 Arizona 116.1 7 3
22 North Carolina 115.6 6 5
23 Georgia 115.5 5 6
24 Missouri 114.9 9 2
25 Mississippi State 114.8 7 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 6-2 8-3 118.2
Clemson 4-4 6-5 112.8
North Carolina State 5-2 8-3 111.4
Maryland 4-3 7-4 104.7
Boston College 4-4 6-5 103.9
Wake Forest 1-7 2-9 89.9
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 7-0 9-2 122.8
Miami-FL 5-3 7-4 118.0
North Carolina 3-4 6-5 115.6
Georgia Tech 4-4 6-5 108.7
Virginia 1-6 4-7 95.3
Duke 1-6 3-8 95.1

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 3-2 7-3 114.6
Pittsburgh 4-1 6-4 110.8
Connecticut 3-2 6-4 106.4
South Florida 3-3 6-4 104.5
Cincinnati 2-3 4-6 104.0
Louisville 2-4 5-6 102.7
Syracuse 4-3 7-4 101.1
Rutgers 1-4 4-6 91.1

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 6-1 10-1 127.1
Wisconsin 6-1 10-1 122.7
Iowa 4-3 7-4 117.3
Michigan State 6-1 10-1 110.2
Michigan 3-4 7-4 106.5
Penn State 4-3 7-4 105.1
Illinois 4-4 6-5 105.1
Northwestern 3-4 7-4 95.4
Minnesota 1-6 2-9 94.0
Purdue 2-5 4-7 92.5
Indiana 0-7 4-7 88.7

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 5-2 9-2 118.8
Missouri 5-2 9-2 114.9
Kansas State 3-5 6-5 100.7
Colorado 2-5 5-6 100.3
Iowa State 3-5 5-7 94.9
Kansas 1-6 3-8 88.5
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 5-2 9-2 127.0
Texas A&M 5-2 8-3 118.8
Oklahoma State 6-1 10-1 116.4
Texas 2-5 5-6 106.0
Baylor 4-4 7-5 105.3
Texas Tech 3-5 6-5 104.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 6-1 8-3 104.8
Southern Mississippi 5-2 8-3 98.6
East Carolina 5-2 6-5 90.2
U A B 3-4 4-7 86.8
Marshall 3-4 4-7 83.6
Memphis 0-7 1-10 69.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 5-2 8-3 98.1
Houston 4-4 5-6 96.5
S M U 5-2 6-5 92.2
U T E P 3-5 6-6 86.0
Rice 2-5 3-8 84.0
Tulane 2-5 4-7 74.8

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   6-5 107.0
Navy   8-3 102.6
Army   6-5 88.2

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-2 8-3 95.2
Ohio U 6-1 8-3 91.7
Miami (O) 6-1 7-4 85.2
Kent St. 3-4 4-7 80.6
Bowling Green 1-6 2-9 77.1
Buffalo 1-6 2-9 71.5
Akron 0-7 0-11 66.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 7-0 9-2 103.9
Toledo 6-1 7-4 88.5
Western Michigan 4-3 5-6 86.7
Central Michigan 2-5 3-8 84.5
Ball State 3-5 4-8 73.9
Eastern Michigan 2-5 2-9 69.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 7-0 11-0 132.9
Utah 6-1 9-2 111.7
Air Force 5-3 8-4 106.8
B Y U 5-2 6-5 104.2
S. D. State 4-3 7-4 102.4
Wyoming 1-7 3-9 88.0
UNLV 2-5 2-9 84.5
Colo. State 2-6 3-9 79.8
New Mexico 1-6 1-10 75.4

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-0 10-0 132.1
Stanford 7-1 10-1 129.7
Arizona 4-3 7-3 116.1
Southern Cal 4-4 7-4 112.9
Oregon St. 4-3 5-5 112.3
California 3-5 5-6 110.2
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 109.2
Washington 3-4 4-6 105.1
U C L A 2-5 4-6 103.5
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 8-3 121.1
Florida 4-4 7-4 118.0
Georgia 3-5 5-6 115.5
Kentucky 2-5 6-5 106.9
Tennessee 2-5 5-6 105.0
Vanderbilt 1-7 2-9 88.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 5-2 9-2 127.5
Auburn 7-0 11-0 126.2
Arkansas 5-2 9-2 124.4
L S U 6-1 10-1 118.0
Mississippi State 3-4 7-4 114.8
Ole Miss 1-6 4-7 100.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 5-1 5-5 88.1
Arkansas State 4-3 4-7 84.2
Troy 4-2 5-5 82.2
Middle Tennessee 3-3 4-6 79.9
North Texas 3-5 3-8 79.0
Louisiana-Monroe 4-3 5-6 78.9
Florida Atlantic 3-3 4-6 78.2
U. of Louisiana 2-5 2-9 76.8
Western Kentucky 2-5 2-9 75.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 6-0 10-0 134.6
Nevada 5-1 10-1 111.3
Hawaii 6-1 8-3 106.2
Fresno State 4-3 6-4 97.7
Louisiana Tech 3-3 4-6 94.0
Idaho 2-4 5-6 89.1
Utah State 2-5 4-7 86.2
San Jose State 0-6 1-10 76.9
New Mexico State 1-6 2-9 72.5

 

 

 
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 23      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Temple MIAMI (O) 7.0 28-21
       
Thursday, November 25      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Texas A&M TEXAS 10.3 24-14
       
Friday, November 26      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Louisville RUTGERS 8.6 28-19
Western Michigan BOWLING GREEN 6.6 27-20
West Virginia PITTSBURGH 1.3 21-20
ALABAMA Auburn 3.8 31-27
Buffalo AKRON 2.6 24-21
TOLEDO Central Michigan 7.0 38-31
Northern Illinois EASTERN MICHIGAN 31.5 45-13
EAST CAROLINA S m u 1.0 35-34
Ohio U KENT STATE 8.6 30-21
ARIZONA STATE U c l a 8.7 26-17
NEBRASKA Colorado 21.5 28-6
TULSA Southern Miss. 2.5 38-35
OREGON Arizona 19.5 44-24
Boise State NEVADA 26.3 46-20
       
Saturday, November 27      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARKANSAS L s u 9.4 35-26
STANFORD Oregon State 20.4 37-17
CONNECTICUT Cincinnati 5.4 26-21
FLORIDA STATE Florida 2.7 27-24
GEORGIA Georgia Tech 9.3 33-24
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 3.7 24-20
Iowa MINNESOTA 20.3 37-17
Mississippi State OLE MISS 11.4 28-17
North Carolina DUKE 18.5 45-26
SYRACUSE Boston College 0.2 17-17 to ot
OHIO STATE Michigan 23.6 44-20
Oklahoma OKLAHOMA STATE 8.1 34-26
Michigan State PENN STATE 2.1 30-28
South Carolina CLEMSON 5.8 34-28
VANDERBILT Wake Forest 2.0 26-24
RICE U a b 0.2 34-34 to ot
Kansas State NORTH TEXAS 18.7 44-25
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 30.0 37-7
WISCONSIN Northwestern 30.3 51-21
FLORIDA INT’L Arkansas State 6.4 34-28
MIAMI (FL) South Florida 16.5 38-21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic 4.2 31-27
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 4.6 26-21
PURDUE Indiana 6.8 38-31
TENNESSEE Kentucky 1.1 35-34
TEXAS TECH Houston 10.7 45-34
TROY Western Kentucky 9.5 38-28
Central Florida MEMPHIS 33.2 40-7
MARSHALL Tulane 11.8 35-23
Missouri Kansas (Kansas City) 26.4 40-14
Hawaii NEW MEXICO STATE 30.7 45-14
UTAH B y u 10.0 34-24
T c u NEW MEXICO 55.0 55-0
SAN DIEGO STATE U n l v 20.9 42-21
Louisiana Tech SAN JOSE STATE 14.1 31-17
SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame 8.9 33-24
FRESNO STATE Idaho 11.6 38-26

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 23      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Temple MIAMI (O) 27-20 27-16
       
Thursday, November 25      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Texas A&M TEXAS 23-13 20-14
       
Friday, November 26      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
Louisville RUTGERS 24-21 28-17
Western Michigan BOWLING GREEN 35-28 38-16
PITTSBURGH West Virginia 17-14 17-14
ALABAMA Auburn 31-27 31-28
Buffalo AKRON 23-20 23-20
TOLEDO Central Michigan 38-30 41-21
Northern Illinois EASTERN MICHIGAN 45-19 49-17
EAST CAROLINA S m u 36-34 34-38
Ohio U KENT STATE 35-23 33-14
ARIZONA STATE U c l a 31-20 27-20
NEBRASKA Colorado 28-9 23-17
TULSA Southern Miss. 41-37 44-34
OREGON Arizona 42-23 41-23
Boise State NEVADA 42-30 60-31
       
Saturday, November 27      
Favorite Underdog Mean Bias
ARKANSAS L s u 31-27 31-20
STANFORD Oregon State 37-20 38-19
CONNECTICUT Cincinnati 26-21 24-16
FLORIDA STATE Florida 30-27 30-27
GEORGIA Georgia Tech 31-20 28-24
North Carolina St. MARYLAND 24-20 27-17
Iowa MINNESOTA 30-13 34-10
Mississippi State OLE MISS 33-25 34-24
North Carolina DUKE 35-24 35-24
SYRACUSE Boston College 16-14 19-17
OHIO STATE Michigan 37-17 38-24
OKLAHOMA STATE Oklahoma 30-27 27-31
Michigan State PENN STATE 30-27 20-23
South Carolina CLEMSON 35-30 36-20
VANDERBILT Wake Forest 23-17 20-23
RICE U a b 35-35 to ot 38-36
Kansas State NORTH TEXAS 41-21 45-24
VIRGINIA TECH Virginia 35-9 31-14
WISCONSIN Northwestern 45-24 45-24
FLORIDA INT’L Arkansas State 34-27 34-27
MIAMI (FL) South Florida 30-17 30-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Florida Atlantic 27-26 24-23
UL-MONROE UL-Lafayette 35-27 35-21
PURDUE Indiana 38-31 37-28
TENNESSEE Kentucky 34-31 35-30
TEXAS TECH Houston 41-32 41-28
TROY Western Kentucky 40-28 35-31
Central Florida MEMPHIS 42-14 47-10
MARSHALL Tulane 35-28 32-31
Missouri Kansas (Kansas City) 41-17 31-13
Hawaii NEW MEXICO STATE 45-17 44-17
UTAH B y u 37-24 28-24
T c u NEW MEXICO 50-7 56-0
SAN DIEGO STATE U n l v 44-24 44-20
Louisiana Tech SAN JOSE STATE 27-16 28-16
SOUTHERN CAL Notre Dame 34-27 28-25
FRESNO STATE Idaho 38-30 38-26

 

 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) [Temple 9-3] WAC (#3?) [Army 6-6]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Toledo 9-3 WAC #(1) or 2 Fresno St. 7-5
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 S M U 6-6
Beef O’Brady’s Big East #6 Connecticut 7-5 C-USA #4-6 East Carolina 7-5
MAACO MWC #1 Utah 10-2 Pac 10 #5 [Kentucky 6-6]
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC NAVY 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 HAWAII 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Boston Coll. 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports Big East #2 West Va. 8-4 ACC #3 Miami 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 7-5
Military ACC #8 Georgia Tech 6-6 C-USA #6 U T E P 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Northwestern 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Nebraska 10-3 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 Southern Miss 8-4 MWC #3-5/Army Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 8-4 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Maryland 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 N. Carolina 7-5 Big East #3-4 S. Florida 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 N.C. State 9-4 Pac 10 #4 [Notre Dame 6-6]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Florida 7-5 C-USA #1 Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 L S U 10-2 ACC #2 Florida St. 9-3
Ticket City Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 8-4
Capital One Big 10 #2 Mich. St. 11-1 SEC #2 Alabama 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Penn State 7-5 SEC #6 Miss. State 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 11-2 BCS At-Large Pittsburgh 8-4
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large T C U 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Ohio State 11-1
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Ohio U 9-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Okla. St. 10-2 SEC #3-6 W Arkansas 10-2
BBVA Compass Big East #5 Louisville 6-6 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Miami (O) 7-5] WAC #1 Nevada 11-2
Nat’l Championship *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Boise State 12-0

 

All CAPS and Italics—Team has already accepted bid to this bowl

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large entries.

November 15, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 16-20, 2010

Another Great Week Versus Spread

2010 is proving to be a season to remember for picking games against the spread.  The mediocrity in the middle has made picking games much easier when using 10-point and 13-point Sweetheart Teasers.

 

As we informed our subscription customers before we sent out our picks for the week, we will be playing fewer games per week now that a winning season has been guaranteed. 

 

Our most recent picks went 4-1, bringing our total for the season to 60-24-3 for 71.4%.  We have been happy and pleased with our ability to average about 60% success over the course of time, so this is definitely an anomaly.  Let’s look at how the picks played out:

 

1. 10-point Teaser:

Boise State -24 ½ vs. Idaho, West Virginia +5 vs. Cincinnati, and Syracuse + 7 ½ vs. Rutgers

WON

 

We had Boise State picked to win by 40 points, and we were not the least bit worried about the Broncos covering at 24 and a hook.  The other two picks in the parlay let us play what we thought were solid favorites now getting points.  We figured that both Cincinnati and Rutgers would lose by more than a touchdown.

 

2. 13-point Teaser:

Northwestern +22 ½ vs. Iowa, Michigan Pk vs. Purdue, Indiana +34 ½ vs. Wisconsin, and Minnesota +33 ½ vs. Illinois

Lost

 

We really liked this Big Ten parlay.  We figured Northwestern would keep the game close against Iowa and lose by a touchdown or less, so when they upset the Hawkeyes, we were happy.  We figured that Michigan was 10-14 points better than Purdue, and even though Denard Robinson had a weak game, the Wolverines prevailed by 11.  We never figured that Indiana would lose by 63 to Wisconsin.  We had predicted the Badgers to win by three touchdowns, so this one lost it for us.  We called for Minnesota to battle Illinois to the wire and have a shot at the upset.  We were right, but it did not matter.  It may matter for Ron Zook.  Losses to Northwestern and Fresno State will send him to the unemployment line.

 

3. 13-point Teaser:

Oklahoma -2 vs. Texas Tech, Texas A&M +10 ½ vs. Baylor, Kansas +48 vs. Nebraska, and Colorado +11 vs. Iowa State

WON

 

We loved this Big 12-themed parlay.  We called for Oklahoma to beat Texas Tech by at least 20 points, and the Sooners put an exclamation point on the deLeaching of the Red Raiders.  We stated that it was our opinion that Texas A&M was still not getting enough respect and figured they would beat Baylor outright.  We believed that Nebraska would slaughter Kansas but by more like 35 and not 48 points.  When the Cornhuskers only won by 17, we were winners in this parlay.  As for Colorado, the Buffalos were two-point picks over Iowa State, and they were playing for deposed coach Dan Hawkins.  Getting 11 points was more than we could have hoped for, and CU won outright.

 

4. 10-point Teaser

Tennessee Titans & Miami Dolphins Over 33, Detroit Lions & Buffalo Bills Under 54, and Cincinnati Bengals & Indianapolis Colts Under 57

WON

 

This totals parlay of pro teams was our strategy pick of the week.  We figured that with Randy Moss added to a lineup that was already scoring close to 28 points per game, and with the Titans having problems stopping the running game, both teams would top 21 points.  Miami controlled the game after the first quarter, and more than enough points were scored.  The Lions-Bills pick was more due to climate forecast.  Heavy snow was in the forecast, and we figured the colder weather would make this a defensive struggle.  As for the Bengals-Colts game, we did not think Cincinnati could score 17 points in this game, and we did not see Indy getting to 40.  It was much closer than we thought it would be.

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals Over 31 ½, Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants Under 55 ½, and St. Louis Rams & San Francisco 49ers Over 28

WON

 

We called for the Seattle-Arizona game to be a shootout with little defense, and we were surprised with the ease in which Seattle won.  Still, this was an easy cover.  We must admit that we blew the Giants-Cowboys game.  We figured New York would win by 21 points, but we were okay because this game narrowly covered when Dallas reacted to Jason Garrett’s coaching.  We played the Rams-49ers game thinking that both teams would top 14 points and were happy to see both do exactly that.

 

Coaching Carousel

At this point in the season, we already know there are openings at Colorado and Minnesota.  It looks like there will be an openings at New Mexico and Vanderbilt, and there will be others that will become available in the next three weeks.  Here are the candidates we hear are in the mix for these jobs:

 

1. New Mexico—The Lobos were not happy with minor bowl appearances almost every season under Rocky Long.  They ended up with back-to-back double digit loss seasons with Mike Locksley.  Mike Leach has been rumored here for a month, but we believe Leach will spend one more season out of the mix before somebody is brave enough to approach him.  We believe that this job will go to a coordinator at the college level.  It is not a glamour job.  Basketball is king in Albuquerque.

 

2. Colorado—Several names have been mentioned in this search, including former coach Bill McCartney, former Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, Georgia coach Mark Richt, and Nebraska offensive coordinator Shawn Watson.  LSU coach Les Miles has been rumored by the Denver Post.  We believe that McCartney may have a legitimate chance to get back into coaching after having retired 17 years ago.  Dick Vermeil proved you can take off 17 years and come back to the game.  Bill Snyder has proved you can come back at age 70 and win.

 

3. Minnesota—San Diego State’s Brady Hoke and Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen, Miami coach Randy Shannon,  former coaches Phil Fulmer and Mark Mangino are on the radar in Minneapolis.  The Gophers are pleased with Tubby Smith on the hardwoods, and it could be that another former SEC coach joins him in the great white north.  We think Fulmer could be the leading candidate. 

 

4. Vanderbilt—It is becoming apparent that Robbie Caldwell will indeed be a one-season stopgap.  However, this school does not have much to offer a big-time coach.  Gary Barnett and Tyrone Willingham turned this job down the last time it was available.  The Commodores just don’t have what it takes to entice a big-time coach to commit coaching suicide here.  We believe that a head coach from the Football Championship Series will get this job if it becomes available.  James Madison coach Mickey Matthews is apparently on the radar.  Miami offensive coordinator Mark Whipple could emerge as a candidate in this job as well.  Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo could be a dark horse candidate, but the spread option may not be a great choice for the SEC.  SEC linebackers and defensive backs can make enough big plays to grind the option to a halt when it is the lone weapon.  That is why no teams use it today.

 

The PiRate Ratings

Once again, there is a change at the top.  Oregon lost to Cal in every regard except the final score.  Who ever heard of a false start on a placekicker?  Then, he misses a 29-yarder.  We believe Boise State would beat Cal by 21-28 points if the Broncos had played them.  So, Boise State is our new number one. 

 

Remember, our ratings look forward and not backward like the polls.  When you see a team ranked in our top 25 but with a losing record, it is because we believe that is where they belong in the mix for the next week’s games.  Georgia is 5-6, but we still have them as one of our top 25.  That is because they are only 12 points weaker than Alabama and Auburn on a neutral field.

 

Overall, except for the top five or six teams, this is the weakest college football season since 1984.  That year, Brigham Young won the national championship.  Could it be “the year” for Boise State or TCU?

 

NCAA Top 25 November 15, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Boise State 133.4 9 0
2 T C U 132.9 11 0
3 Oregon 132.1 10 0
4 Ohio State 126.8 9 1
5 Stanford 126.7 9 1
6 Alabama 126.5 8 2
7 Auburn 126.2 11 0
8 Oklahoma 125.8 8 2
9 Arkansas 125.3 8 2
10 Virginia Tech 122.4 8 2
11 Wisconsin 121.6 9 1
12 South Carolina 120.4 7 3
13 Nebraska 119.5 9 1
14 Miami (Fla) 118.9 7 3
15 L S U 118.8 9 1
16 Florida State 118.5 7 3
17 Texas A&M 118.1 7 3
18 Iowa 117.6 7 3
19 North Carolina 116.5 6 4
20 Arizona 116.1 7 3
21 Florida 116.0 6 4
22 Southern Cal 115.5 7 3
23 Georgia 115.5 5 6
24 Missouri 115.4 8 2
25 Oklahoma State 115.3 9 1
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 5-2 7-3 118.5
Clemson 3-4 5-5 112.5
North Carolina State 4-2 7-3 110.5
Boston College 3-4 5-5 104.7
Maryland 4-2 7-3 104.4
Wake Forest 1-6 2-8 90.2
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 6-0 8-2 122.4
Miami-FL 5-2 7-3 118.9
North Carolina 3-3 6-4 116.5
Georgia Tech 3-4 5-5 109.1
Duke 1-5 3-7 94.7
Virginia 1-5 4-6 94.5

 

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 2-2 6-3 114.0
Pittsburgh 3-1 5-4 110.4
Connecticut 2-2 5-4 105.3
South Florida 3-2 6-3 104.9
Louisville 2-3 5-5 103.3
Syracuse 4-2 7-3 102.2
Cincinnati 1-3 3-6 101.7
Rutgers 1-3 4-5 93.4

 

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 5-1 9-1 126.8
Wisconsin 5-1 9-1 121.6
Iowa 4-2 7-3 117.6
Michigan State 5-1 9-1 111.5
Michigan 3-3 7-3 107.6
Penn State 3-3 6-4 105.4
Illinois 3-4 5-5 104.1
Northwestern 3-3 7-3 96.9
Minnesota 1-6 2-9 94.0
Purdue 2-4 4-6 91.2
Indiana 0-6 4-6 88.4

 

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 5-1 9-1 119.5
Missouri 4-2 8-2 115.4
Kansas State 3-4 6-4 101.6
Colorado 1-5 4-6 99.4
Iowa State 3-4 5-6 94.4
Kansas 1-5 3-7 89.6
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 4-2 8-2 125.8
Texas A&M 4-2 7-3 118.1
Oklahoma State 5-1 9-1 115.3
Baylor 4-3 7-4 106.5
Texas 2-5 4-6 105.7
Texas Tech 3-5 5-5 103.2

 

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 5-1 7-3 102.3
Southern Mississippi 4-2 7-3 96.9
East Carolina 5-1 6-4 93.7
U A B 2-4 3-7 87.0
Marshall 3-3 4-6 84.2
Memphis 0-6 1-9 68.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Tulsa 4-2 7-3 98.7
Houston 4-3 5-5 98.2
S M U 4-2 5-5 91.6
U T E P 3-4 6-5 85.4
Rice 1-5 2-8 80.5
Tulane 2-4 4-6 78.3

 

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   5-5 106.2
Navy   7-3 103.0
Army   6-4 89.0

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-1 8-2 96.5
Ohio U 5-1 7-3 90.4
Miami (O) 5-1 6-4 86.4
Kent St. 3-3 4-6 84.2
Bowling Green 1-5 2-8 77.7
Buffalo 1-5 2-8 73.1
Akron 0-6 0-10 65.2
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 6-0 8-2 101.6
Toledo 5-1 6-4 87.9
Central Michigan 2-5 3-8 84.5
Western Michigan 3-3 4-6 83.1
Ball State 3-4 4-7 76.2
Eastern Michigan 1-5 1-9 68.3

 

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 7-0 11-0 132.9
Utah 5-1 8-2 112.3
Air Force 4-3 7-4 106.3
B Y U 4-2 5-5 103.9
S. D. State 4-2 7-3 101.8
UNLV 2-4 2-8 85.0
Colo. State 2-5 3-8 84.6
Wyoming 0-7 2-9 84.2
New Mexico 1-5 1-9 75.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-0 10-0 132.1
Stanford 6-1 9-1 126.7
Arizona 4-3 7-3 116.1
Southern Cal 4-3 7-3 115.5
California 3-4 5-5 113.2
Oregon St. 3-3 4-5 109.7
Arizona St. 2-5 4-6 109.2
U C L A 2-4 4-5 106.1
Washington 2-4 3-6 103.5
Washington State 1-7 2-9 94.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 5-3 7-3 120.4
Florida 4-4 6-4 116.0
Georgia 3-5 5-6 115.5
Kentucky 2-5 6-5 106.9
Tennessee 1-5 4-6 105.2
Vanderbilt 1-6 2-8 88.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 5-2 8-2 126.5
Auburn 7-0 11-0 126.2
Arkansas 4-2 8-2 125.3
L S U 5-1 9-1 118.8
Mississippi State 3-3 7-3 113.9
Ole Miss 1-5 4-6 100.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida International 4-1 4-5 86.6
Arkansas State 4-3 4-6 83.8
Troy 4-2 5-4 82.9
North Texas 3-4 3-7 80.2
Middle Tennessee 2-3 3-6 80.2
Florida Atlantic 3-3 4-5 78.5
U. of Louisiana 2-4 2-8 78.3
Louisiana-Monroe 3-3 4-6 77.7
Western Kentucky 2-4 2-8 75.4

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 5-0 9-0 133.4
Nevada 4-1 9-1 110.3
Hawaii 5-1 7-3 104.9
Fresno State 4-2 6-3 98.9
Louisiana Tech 3-3 4-6 94.0
Utah State 2-4 4-6 89.5
Idaho 1-4 4-6 85.8
San Jose State 0-5 1-9 78.2
New Mexico State 1-5 2-8 73.5

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 16      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
TEMPLE Ohio U 9.1 31-22
       
Wednesday, November 17      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Miami (O) AKRON 19.2 31-12
TOLEDO Bowling Green 12.7 37-24
       
Thursday, November 18      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
WASHINGTON U c l a 0.4 28-28 to ot
Air Force U N L V 18.3 35-17
       
Friday, November 19      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
BOISE STATE Fresno State 38.0 55-17
       
Saturday, November 20      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
COLORADO Kansas State 0.8 27-26
Pittsburgh SOUTH FLORIDA 2.5 27-24
GEORGIA TECH Duke 17.4 44-27
Missouri IOWA STATE 18.0 38-20
Penn State Indiana    (Landover, MD) 18.5 33-14
West Virginia LOUISVILLE 7.7 28-20
Middle Tennessee WESTERN KY. 1.8 33-31
BOSTON COLLEGE Virginia 13.2 27-14
Florida State MARYLAND 11.1 31-20
MICHIGAN STATE Purdue 23.3 40-17
Wisconsin MICHIGAN 11.0 38-27
NORTH CAROLINA N. Carolina State 8.5 28-19
Clemson WAKE FOREST 19.8 34-14
Connecticut SYRACUSE 0.1 20-20 to ot
TULSA U t e p 16.3 38-22
Tennessee VANDERBILT 14.5 35-20
Oklahoma BAYLOR 16.3 37-21
East Carolina RICE 10.2 41-31
TEXAS A&M Nebraska 1.6 26-24
TEXAS Florida Atlantic 30.2 37-7
Florida Int’l LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 5.3 31-26
Arkansas MISSISSIPPI STATE 8.4 38-30
CINCINNATI Rutgers 11.3 35-24
Ohio State IOWA 6.2 24-18
Oklahoma State KANSAS 22.7 33-10
Virginia Tech MIAMI-FL 0.5 25-24
LOUISIANA-MONROE North Texas 0.0 30-30 to ot
SOUTH CAROLINA Troy 40.5 55-14
Illinois N’western (Wrigley Field) 6.2 34-28
Northern Illinois BALL STATE 22.4 38-16
BUFFALO Eastern Michigan 7.8 35-27
WESTERN MICHIGAN Kent State 1.9 33-31
WYOMING Colorado State 2.6 31-28
UTAH STATE Idaho 6.7 38-31
S M U Marshall 10.4 34-24
Stanford CALIFORNIA 11.5 28-16
NAVY Arkansas State 22.2 49-27
Central Florida TULANE 21.0 38-17
U A B Memphis 21.1 40-19
NEVADA New Mexico State 39.8 47-7
B Y U New Mexico 31.2 41-10
Notre Dame Army  (Yankee Stadium) 17.2 27-10
SOUTHERN MISS Houston 1.7 33-31
L S U Ole Miss 21.7 35-13
Southern Cal OREGON STATE 2.8 30-27
Utah SAN DIEGO STATE 7.5 38-30
HAWAII San Jose State 30.2 47-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 16      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
TEMPLE Ohio U 31-21 26-24
       
Wednesday, November 17      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Miami (O) AKRON 34-21 27-13
TOLEDO Bowling Green 40-28 38-20
       
Thursday, November 18      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
U c l a WASHINGTON 30-30 to ot 27-24
Air Force U N L V 35-17 35-14
       
Friday, November 19      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
BOISE STATE Fresno State 47-20 48-17
       
Saturday, November 20      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Kansas State COLORADO 28-23 23-26
Pittsburgh SOUTH FLORIDA 24-21 20-26
GEORGIA TECH Duke 38-28 37-28
Missouri IOWA STATE 35-24 34-17
Penn State Indiana    (Landover, MD) 27-14 41-17
West Virginia LOUISVILLE 24-21 20-21
WESTERN KY. Middle Tennessee 30-27 31-28
BOSTON COLLEGE Virginia 25-16 24-17
Florida State MARYLAND 27-24 23-26
MICHIGAN STATE Purdue 38-16 37-16
Wisconsin MICHIGAN 38-31 44-31
NORTH CAROLINA N. Carolina State 25-24 24-21
Clemson WAKE FOREST 35-21 38-17
SYRACUSE Connecticut 20-14 20-16
TULSA U t e p 41-24 45-28
Tennessee VANDERBILT 28-20 41-13
Oklahoma BAYLOR 38-30 42-24
East Carolina RICE 47-35 52-21
Nebraska TEXAS A&M 31-30 24-30
TEXAS Florida Atlantic 28-9 31-20
Florida Int’l LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 38-30 41-23
Arkansas MISSISSIPPI STATE 31-27 35-20
CINCINNATI Rutgers 28-24 28-27
Ohio State IOWA 26-23 30-20
Oklahoma State KANSAS 40-17 45-13
Virginia Tech MIAMI-FL 27-27 to ot 24-20
LOUISIANA-MONROE North Texas 34-31 35-33
SOUTH CAROLINA Troy 40-14 45-20
Northwestern Illinois  (Wrigley Field) 28-27 35-31
Northern Illinois BALL STATE 44-24 48 -16
BUFFALO Eastern Michigan 34-27 34-30
WESTERN MICHIGAN Kent State 30-27 31-27
WYOMING Colorado St. 28-27 21-27
UTAH STATE Idaho 34-32 40-30
S M U Marshall 35-26 35-28
Stanford CALIFORNIA 28-19 27-20
NAVY Arkansas State 41-24 42-24
Central Florida TULANE 38-24 38-24
U A B Memphis 45-28 44-24
NEVADA New Mexico State 52-16 51-17
B Y U New Mexico 34-7 47-17
Notre Dame Army  (Yankee Stadium) 26-17 28-17
SOUTHERN MISS Houston 37-31 37-32
L S U Ole Miss 35-13 27-10
Southern Cal OREGON STATE 31-26 38-20
Utah SAN DIEGO STATE 34-30 31-34
HAWAII San Jose State 49-20 56-17

 

 

Looking At The Bowls

Pity the bowls with Pac-10 tie-ins.  It looks like Oregon will play in the National Championship Game, and Stanford could easily earn an at-large BCS Bowl Bid.  Only Arizona and California could be eligible for all the remaining bowls.  Southern Cal is not eligible, and it looks like a strong possibility that Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington will not become bowl eligible.

 

The Big Ten could be looking at two BCS bowl teams, so they could come up one team shy in meeting its bowl obligations.

 

The Mid-American Conference will have five bowl eligible teams with seven or more wins, so expect the MAC to get two extra bids as at-large teams.

 

Army needs one win to virtually guarantee the Black Knights a bowl bid.

 

The SEC could find itself with just one BCS bowl member if Arkansas beats LSU.  If Georgia beats Georgia Tech and Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky, 10 teams could be available for nine bowl spots.  Expect a 6-6 Kentucky team to become the top at-large candidate from among the 6-6 teams.

 

We believe the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conference could produce one extra bowl eligible team than they have spots available, so those two teams would become very attractive.

 

[Teams in brackets are at-large selections]
Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) [Connecticut 6-6] WAC (#3?) [Miami (O) 8-5]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Toledo 8-4 WAC #(1) or 2 Nevada 10-2
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Fla. Int’l 7-5 C-USA #5 SMU 6-6
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Pittsburgh 7-5 C-USA #4-6 Sou. Miss 8-4
Las Vegas MWC #1 Utah 9-3 Pac 10 #5 [Temple 9-3]
Poinsettia MWC #2 S. Diego St. 9-3 Navy or WAC Navy 8-4
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 Hawaii 10-3 C-USA #2-6 Central Fla. 9-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC [Boston Coll. 6-6] MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Clemson 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 S. Florida 8-4 ACC #3 Florida St. 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Northwestern 8-4
Military ACC #8 Georgia Tech 6-6 C-USA #6 E. Carolina 8-4
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 6-6
Alamo Big 12 #3 Oklahoma 9-3 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 8-4
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 UTEP 6-6 MWC #3-5/Army BYU 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Notre Dame 6-6 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 N. C. State 8-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 Maryland 8-4 Big East #3-4 West Va. 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 Miami (F) 8-4 Pac 10 #4 [Kentucky 6-6]
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Florida 7-5 C-USA #1 Tulsa 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Arkansas 10-2 ACC #2 N. Carolina 8-4
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #6-7 Michigan 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St.7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E S. Carolina 9-4 Big 10 #3 Penn St. 8-4
Capital One Big 10 #2 Mich. St. 10-2 SEC #2 Alabama 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Iowa 8-4 SEC #6 Miss. St. 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma St. 12-1 BCS At-Large Syracuse 9-3
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large TCU 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Ohio St. 11-1
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Troy 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Ohio U 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Nebraska 10-3 SEC #3-6 W LSU 10-2
Birmingham Big East #5 Louisville 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Army 7-5] WAC #1 Fresno St. 7-5
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Oregon 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** Boise St. 12-0
         
         
         

 

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