Computer Simulations–Simper Bowl IX & Today’s College Playoffs

We are combining our own computer simulation championship game from our annual project with the actual College Football Playoff games today into one entity.

 

Simper Bowl IX

This year, we decided to expand our own computer college playoff to 24 teams just like in the Football Championship Series.  The prior rounds have been played, and you can search for the results on this site.  The Championship Game today pits #3 seed Oklahoma against #16 seed Ole Miss.

Oklahoma received a first round bye as the #3 seed.  The Sooners defeated Michigan 47-28 in the Sweet 16; Ohio State 26-20 in the Elite 8; and Stanford 31-20 in the Semifinal Round.

Ole Miss had to play in the opening round as the #16 seed.  The Rebels defeated Houston 39-24 in that round to advance to the Sweet 16.  Then, Ole Miss defeated top-ranked Clemson 35-20 in the Sweet 16; North Carolina 27-16 in the Elite 8; and Michigan State 27-17 in the Semifinals.

 

Here are the championship results.

Simper Bowl IX	1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#3 Oklahoma	10	6	7	7	30	22	166	252	418
#16 Ole Miss	13	7	0	14	34	27	249	302	551

Congratulations to the Ole Miss Rebels, winner of Simper Bowl IX.

 

The College Football Playoffs 2015-16–The Real Larry Culpepper Playoffs

This is what you have been waiting for.  Yesterday, we input all the stats and schedule strengths for the four teams in today’s playoffs.  We even included the recent suspensions of Clemson players in the loss of talent.

 

We then simulated both games 100 times coming up with the number of wins, the average score, the standard deviations of the games, and the outlier scores in both directions.

 

Orange Bowl

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

Time: 4:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, and Holly Rowe

Radio: ESPN, Bill Rosinksi, David Norrie, Joe Schad

Teams: Clemson (13-0) vs. Oklahoma (11-1)

100 Sims

Clemson wins: 39

Oklahoma wins: 61

Average Score: Oklahoma 30.7  Clemson 22.1

Standard Deviation: 8.6

Outlier A: Oklahoma 51  Clemson  16

Outlier B: Clemson 37  Oklahoma 14

 

Cotton Bowl

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, and Tom Rinaldi

Radio: ESPN, Brad Sham, Danny Kannell, and Ian Fitzsimmons

Teams: Alabama (12-1) vs. Michigan St. (12-1)

100 Sims

Alabama wins: 53

Michigan St. wins: 47

Average Score: Alabama 20.5  Michigan St. 18.8

Standard Deviation: 5.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan St. 6

Outlier B: Michigan St. 27  Alabama 16

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Semifinal Round of the 2015-16 PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs have been played, and the Final Four has now been whittled down to two.

 

In case you are wondering why Michigan St., Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Stanford are the Final Four teams, this season’s simulation used the Football Championship Series format of 24 teams.  Michigan St. defeated Baylor and Iowa to make it to the semifinals.  Ole Miss defeated Houston, Clemson, and North Carolina, as the Rebels were the #16 seed and had to win a play-in game to make it to the Sweet 16.  Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Ohio St., while Stanford got here by knocking off Florida St. and Alabama.

 

Here are the Final Four Semifinal Results.

Semifinal Round	1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#16 Ole Miss	3	14	7	3	27	18	129	268	397
#5 Michigan St.	0	7	10	0	17	17	161	158	327
#3 Oklahoma	0	3	21	7	31	22	154	247	401
#7 Stanford	7	6	0	7	20	17	169	158	327

This sets up Simper Bowl IX at Arlington, Texas, next week.  16th-seed Ole Miss will play 3rd-seed Oklahoma.

 

Fear not ye of computer simulation tremors.  Next week, we will run our annual 100 sims on the playoff games–the real ones where that sugar-addicted dude Larry Culpepper will be lurking around somewhere.

 

 

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The first two rounds of the Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs have been previously posted here.  Today’s Quarterfinal Round featured three teams from the Big Ten, two from the SEC, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12.

If you have not been following our 2015-16 tournament, we are using the same 24-team format currently in use by the Football Championship Division.  Here are the contests for the football version of the Elite 8.

Quarterfinal Round		1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#16 Ole Miss	at	10	14	0	3	27	24	163	242	405
#8 North Carolina		7	6	3	0	16	17	145	189	334
#7 Stanford	at	7	0	3	7	17	12	130	169	299
#2 Alabama		3	3	7	0	13	17	202	116	318
#6 Ohio St.	at	0	3	14	3	20	20	221	106	327
#3 Oklahoma		5	7	14	0	26	22	137	303	440
#5 Michigan St.	at	3	3	7	10	23	19	129	222	351
#4 Iowa		0	14	0	7	21	16	172	133	305

The Final Four is now set.  In next week’s semifinal round, it will be:

#16 Ole Miss vs. #5 Michigan St. at the Orange Bowl

#7 Stanford vs. #3 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl

Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 2

Welcome back to round 2 of our computer simulated college football playoffs.  If you did not see last week’s posting of round 1, we are taking the Football Bowl Subdivision teams and applying the Football Championship Series rules to the playoffs.

 

Thus our FBS simulated playoffs consisted of 24 teams with every conference champion guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.

 

Here were this week’s Round 2 Pairings.

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame	at
#8 North Carolina
#10 Florida St.	at
#7 Stanford
#11 TCU	at
#6 Ohio St.
#12 Baylor	at
#5 Michigan St.
#13 Northwestern	at
#4 Iowa
#19 Michigan	at
#3 Oklahoma
#15 Oregon	at
#2 Alabama
#16 Ole Miss	at
#1 Clemson

 

The games were simulated, and there were some surprises.  Here are the final scores of the games.

North Carolina 27  Notre Dame 23

Stanford 24  Florida St. 20

Ohio St. 34  TCU 21

Michigan St. 27  Baylor 24

Iowa 23 Northwestern 17

Oklahoma 47  Michigan 28

Alabama 20  Oregon 16

Ole Miss 35  Clemson 20

 

Here are the basic stats for those games.

Second Round		1	2	3	4	F	FD	Rush	Pass	Total
#9 Notre Dame	at	0	14	6	3	23	19	171	149	320
#8 North Carolina		7	10	3	7	27	20	135	271	406
#10 Florida St.	at	6	14	0	0	20	17	183	128	311
#7 Stanford		3	7	7	7	24	18	206	149	355
#11 TCU	at	0	7	14	0	21	18	130	211	341
#6 Ohio St.		6	3	15	10	34	34	271	138	409
#12 Baylor	at	0	3	14	7	24	23	98	226	324
#5 Michigan St.		6	14	7	0	27	16	188	177	365
#13 Northwestern	at	10	0	7	0	17	16	129	176	305
#4 Iowa		0	6	3	14	23	16	135	153	288
#19 Michigan	at	0	7	7	14	28	22	169	250	419
#3 Oklahoma		14	17	9	7	47	27	251	279	530
#15 Oregon	at	3	3	10	0	16	14	76	202	278
#2 Alabama		7	7	3	3	20	18	247	139	386
#16 Ole Miss	at	21	7	7	0	35	23	190	194	384
#1 Clemson		0	6	7	7	20	17	147	161	308

 

Here are the pairings for the Quarterfinal Round.

Quarterfinal Round
#16 Ole Miss	at
#8 North Carolina
#7 Stanford	at
#2 Alabama
#6 Ohio St.	at
#3 Oklahoma
#5 Michigan St.	at
#4 Iowa

Simper Bowl VII

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 received automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt received automatic bids if any finished in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaced the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we used an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then selected the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and gave them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seeded the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams received a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 faced off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

In the quarterfinal round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/28/2013-14-ncaa-football-computer-simulation-playoffs-quarterfinals/

 

South Carolina upset Florida St., Stanford defeated Michigan St., Oregon upset Auburn, and Missouri upset Alabama to make this the first time in the PiRate Simulation history that a top-3 seed did not make the semifinal round.

 

In the semifinals, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/01/01/pirate-ratings-computer-simulated-college-football-playoffs-semifinals/

 

Stanford defeated South Carolina and Oregon knocked off Missouri to set up an all Pac-12 North National Championship Simulation, Simper Bowl VII.

 

And without further adieu, your winner for 2013-14 is: Oregon!  The Ducks win their third consecutive Simper Bowl.

 

Final Score: Oregon 32  Stanford 10

 

Stan	Team	Ore
13	FD	22
35-88	Rushing	52-331
182	Passing	218
17-32-3	Passes	19-29-1
67	Play	81
270	Yards	549
	1	2	3	4	F
Stan	3	0	7	0	10
Ore	10	6	9	7	32

 

Note: Oregon lost three fumbles and had one punt blocked, which led to both of Stanford’s scores.

2013-14 NCAA Football Computer Simulation Playoffs–Quarterfinals

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

Today’s quarterfinal games look like this:

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

 

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

We had our first major upset in the tournament, as the Gamecocks came from behind in the fourth quarter thanks to an incredible defensive effort.

 

Final Score: South Carolina 18   Florida St. 16

 

FSU	Team	Scar
18	FD	15
31-84	Rushing	42-161
214	Passing	146
19-37-2	Passes	13-21-0
68	Play	63
298	Yards	307
	1	2	3	4	F
FSU	7	6	3	0	16
Scar	0	3	3	12	18

 

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

In a match of the two teams headed to the Rose Bowl in reality, the Cardinal dominated the game for four quarters to advance to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Stanford 20  Michigan St. 10

 

Stan	Team	MSU
16	FD	12
39-144	Rushing	33-128
191	Passing	152
17-27-0	Passes	16-28-1
66	Play	61
335	Yards	280
	1	2	3	4	F
Stan	3	3	7	7	20
MSU	0	0	10	0	10

 

 

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

In a nip and tuck offensive explosion, the Ducks wiped out the other top seed, preventing the actual national championship contenders from advancing to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Oregon 52  Auburn 49

 

Aub	Team	Ore
26	FD	23
55-297	Rushing	43-224
223	Passing	309
19-29-1	Passes	21-34-0
84	Play	77
520	Yards	533
	1	2	3	4	F
Aub	14	21	7	7	49
Ore	10	14	21	7	52

 

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

Alabama mounted a huge 2^nd half comeback to force overtime, but a missed extra point cost the Tide and the Tigers advanced to the semis.

 

Final Score: Missouri 24 Alabama 23 ot

 

Ala	Team	Mo
16	FD	21
34-126	Rushing	55-211
233	Passing	160
19-30-0	Passes	14-22-1
64	Play	77
359	Yards	371
	1	2	3	4	OT	F
Ala	0	3	0	14	6	23
MO	0	7	10	0	7	24

 

The Semifinal Round is now set.  Here are your Final Four Match-ups:

 

#4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

#6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

In the years we have simulated these playoffs, this is the lowest total of seeded teams ever to make the semifinals. Check back on New Year’s Eve to see which two teams advance to the 2014 Simper Bowl.

PiRate Ratings 2013 College Football Computer Simulation Playoffs

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

The top four seeds receive first round byes, while teams 5-12 play at neutral site bowls.

Here are the results for Round One.  Round Two will be published next Friday.  The Semifinals will be published New Year’s Eve, and the Championship Game will be published Friday, January 3.

# 5 Michigan St. 12-1 vs. #12 Central Florida 11-1

 

Michigan St. 20  Central Florida 10

 

Mich St.	Team	Cent. Fla
17	FD	14
35-138	Rushing	24-87
223	Passing	239
21-38-0	Passes	25-42-3
73	Play	66
361	Yards	326
	1	2	3	4	F
Mich St.	3	7	0	10	20
Cent. Fla	0	0	7	3	10

 

 

#6 Missouri 11-2 vs. #11 Oklahoma 10-2

 

Missouri 44 Oklahoma 35

 

Missouri	Team	Oklahoma
22	FD	25
45-188	Rushing	44-218
251	Passing	209
18-31-1	Passes	19-34-1
76	Play	78
439	Yards	427
	1	2	3	4	F
Missouri	13	14	7	10	44
Oklahoma	7	14	0	14	35

 

 

#7 Ohio St. 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 10-2

 

Oregon 48  Ohio St. 29

 

Ohio St.	Team	Oregon
21	FD	24
41-179	Rushing	51-275
221	Passing	286
17-28-1	Passes	22-34-0
69	Play	85
400	Yards	561
	1	2	3	4	F
Ohio St.	10	6	6	7	29
Oregon	11	20	14	3	48

 

 

#8 South Carolina vs. #9 Baylor

 

South Carolina 34  Baylor 19

 

S Car	Team	Bay
19	FD	22
47-197	Rushing	32-79
127	Passing	241
12-19-0	Passes	23-43-3
66	Play	75
324	Yards	320
	1	2	3	4	F
S Car	10	10	7	7	34
Bay	7	9	0	3	19

 

 

The Elite Eight Schedule

#1 Florida St. 13-0 vs. #8 South Carolina 11-2

#2 Auburn 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 11-2

#3 Alabama 11-1 vs. #6 Missouri 12-2

#4 Stanford 11-2 vs. #5 Michigan St. 13-1

 

2013 Mid-American Conference Football Preview

2013 Mid-American Conference Preview

 

The MAC achieved special status last season, with two schools challenging for a BCS Bowl bid.  Kent State moved into prime position to grab that bowl with an 11-1 regular season that brought the Golden Flashes into the top 20 and just inside the parameters needed to steal a bid.

 

At the same time, Northern Illinois won 11 games in a row after an opening one-point loss at Iowa, and the Huskies moved into the top 20 as well.

 

In the MAC Championship Game, NIU bested Kent State in one of the most exciting conference championship games of all time.  The game went to double overtime, before the Huskies emerged victorious.  They earned an Orange Bowl bid to face Florida State, where they showed they really did not belong in a BCS Bowl.

 

Now, both of the two powers from 2012 must replace successful coaches who received nice pay increases to move to the big time.  Former NIU coach Dave Doeren now calls the shots at North Carolina St., while Kent State’s Darrell Hazell is the new man at Purdue.

 

2013 looks to be a typical year for the MAC, not one where one team should make a run toward a BCS Bowl bid, but one where as many as six teams could find themselves in a bowl at the end of the year.

 

This is one league that experiences no additions or departures.

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team		Conf.	Overall			PiRate		Mean	Bias
Bowling Green		0-0	0-0			98.7		100.3	99.8
Buffalo		0-0	0-0			92.8		95.2	93.2
Ohio		0-0	0-0			91.9		97.8	93.4
Kent St.		0-0	0-0			89.5		93.8	90.1
Miami (O)		0-0	0-0			83.5		85.1	82.9
Akron		0-0	0-0			80.8		89.3	80.2
Massachusetts		0-0	0-0			70.6		81.1	70.2
West Division
Team		Conf.	Overall			PiRate		Mean	Bias
Toledo		0-0	0-0			98.6		98.3	99.2
Northern Illinois		0-0	0-0			97.8		97.0	99.6
Ball St.		0-0	0-0			97.1		99.3	98.3
Western Michigan		0-0	0-0			85.2		86.7	86.5
Central Michigan		0-0	0-0			84.4		89.9	84.6
Eastern Michigan		0-0	0-0			79.5		83.6	79.2
League Averages						88.5		92.1	89.0
Official Pre-season Media Poll
MAC-East
Pos	Team	Votes		1st Place
1	Ohio	164		15
2	Bowling Green	154		8
3	Kent St.	119		1
4	Buffalo	101		1
5	Miami (O)	78		0
6	Akron	53		0
7	Massachusetts	29		0
MAC-West
Pos	Team	Votes		1st Place
1	Northern Illinois	138		16
2	Toledo	122		5
3	Ball St.	108		3
4	Central Michigan	67		1
5	Western Michigan	61		0
6	Eastern Michigan	29		0
MAC Championship Game Winner
1	Northern Illinois	14
2	Toledo	3
3	Ohio	3
4	Bowling Green	2
5	Ball St.	2
6	Central Michigan	1

 

 

The Mid-American Conference does not announce a preseason All-MAC team.  In lieu, here are key players for each team:

 

MAC East

Akron: Cody Grice—DL, Malachi Freeman—DB, Jawon Chisholm—RB, Jerron Dillard—WR

 

Bowling Green: Matt Schilz—QB, Chris Gallon and Shaun Joplin—WR, Dominic Flewellyn—OL, Gabe Martin—LB

 

Buffalo: Branden Oliver—RB, Alex Neutz—WR, Khalil Mack—LB, Colby Way—DL, Najja Johnson—DB

 

Kent St.: Dri Archer and Trayion Durham—RB, Pat McShane—OL, Luke Wollet—DB, Roosevelt Nix—DL, Anthony Melchiori—P

 

Massachusetts: Mike Wegzyn—QB, Rob Blanchflower—TE, Colter Johnson—P

 

Miami (O): Dawan Scott—WR, Steve Marck—TE, Chris Wade—LB, Brison Burris and Dayonne Nunley—DB

 

Ohio: Tyler Tettleton—QB, Beau Blankenship—RB, Donte Foster—WR, John Prior—OL, Keith Moore—LB, Travis Carrie—DB

 

MAC West

Ball St.: Keith Wenning—QB, Jahwan Edwards—RB, Willie Snead and Jamill Smith—WR, Zane Fakes—TE, Jordan Hansel—OL, Jonathan Newsome and Nathan Ollie—DL, Eric Patterson and Jeffery Garrett—DB

 

Central Michigan: Zurlon Tipton—RB, Titus Davis—WR, Nick Beamish—OL, Justin Cherocci and Shamari Benton—LB

 

Eastern Michigan: Tyler Benz—QB, Bronson Hill—RB, Campbell Allison—OL, Donald Coleman—DB

 

Northern Illinois: Jordan Lynch—QB, Tommylee Lewis—WR, Tyler Loos, Jared Volk, Aidan Conlon, Andrew Ness, and Ryan Brown—OL, Jimmie Ward—DB, Jamaal Bass—LB, Mathew Sims—K

 

Toledo: Terrance Owens—QB, David Fluellen—RB, Bernard Reedy and Alzono Russell—WR, Greg Mancz—OL, Cheatham Norrils—DB, Trent Voss–LB (Reedy in return game)

 

Western Michigan: Tyler Van Tubbergen—QB, Jaime Wilson—WR, Johnnie Simon—LB/DB hybrid, Justin Currie—DB, Desmond Bozeman–LB

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

EAST DIVISION

Team	Bowling Green Falcons
Head Coach	Dave Clawson
Colors	Orange and Brown
City	Bowling Green, OH
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	61
Pass Offense	72
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	58
Ratings
PiRate	98.7
Mean	100.3
Bias	99.8
Rankings
PiRate	63
Mean	61
Bias	60
Prediction
Conference	8-0
Overall	11-2 (win MAC title game)

 

 

Team	Buffalo Bulls
Head Coach	Jeff Quinn
Colors	Royal Blue and White
City	Buffalo
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	58
Pass Defense	54
Ratings
PiRate	92.8
Mean	95.2
Bias	93.2
Rankings
PiRate	85
Mean	82
Bias	86
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Ohio Bobcats
Head Coach	Frank Solich
Colors	Hunter Green and White
City	Athens, OH
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	63
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	52
Pass Defense	46
Ratings
PiRate	91.9
Mean	97.8
Bias	93.4
Rankings
PiRate	88
Mean	67
Bias	85
Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-3

 

 

Team	Kent St. Golden Flashes
Head Coach	Paul Haynes
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Kent, OH
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	11-3
Grades
Run Offense	75
Pass Offense	44
Run Defense	62
Pass Defense	44
Ratings
PiRate	89.5
Mean	93.8
Bias	90.1
Rankings
PiRate	94
Mean	88
Bias	94
Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

 

Team	Miami (O) Redhawks
Head Coach	Don Treadwell
Colors	Red and White
City	Oxford, OH
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	36
Pass Offense	64
Run Defense	41
Pass Defense	48
Ratings
PiRate	83.5
Mean	85.1
Bias	82.9
Rankings
PiRate	111
Mean	116
Bias	112
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Akron Zips
Head Coach	Terry Bowden
Colors
City	Akron, OH
2012 Record
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11
Grades
Run Offense	37
Pass Offense	59
Run Defense	38
Pass Defense	45
Ratings
PiRate	80.8
Mean	89.3
Bias	80.2
Rankings
PiRate	116
Mean	104
Bias	117
Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

 

Team	Massachusetts Minutemen
Head Coach	Charley Molnar
Colors	Maroon and White
City	Amherst, MA
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	1-11
Grades
Run Offense	27
Pass Offense	40
Run Defense	35
Pass Defense	38
Ratings
PiRate	70.6
Mean	81.1
Bias	70.2
Rankings
PiRate	124
Mean	122
Bias	123
Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	0-12

 

 

WEST DIVISION

Team	Toledo Rockets
Head Coach	Matt Campbell
Colors	Midnight Blue & Gold
City	Toledo, OH
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	62
Pass Offense	77
Run Defense	60
Pass Defense	54
Ratings
PiRate	98.6
Mean	98.3
Bias	99.2
Rankings
PiRate	65
Mean	65
Bias	64
Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Northern Illinois Huskies
Head Coach	Rod Carey
Colors	Red and Black
City	DeKalb, IL
2012 Record
Conference	8-0 (won MAC title game)
Overall	12-2
Grades
Run Offense	71
Pass Offense	65
Run Defense	66
Pass Defense	52
Ratings
PiRate	97.8
Mean	97.0
Bias	99.6
Rankings
PiRate	70
Mean	74
Bias	61
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4 (lose MAC title game)

 

 

Team	Ball St. Cardinals
Head Coach	Pete Lembo
Colors	Cardinal, Black, and White
City	Muncie, IN
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	64
Pass Offense	78
Run Defense	50
Pass Defense	54
Ratings
PiRate	97.1
Mean	99.3
Bias	98.3
Rankings
PiRate	73
Mean	63
Bias	69
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-2

 

 

Team	Western Michigan Broncos
Head Coach	P. J. Fleck
Colors	Brown & Gold (also Black & Silver)
City	Kalamazoo, MI
2012 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	38
Pass Offense	69
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	49
Ratings
PiRate	85.2
Mean	86.7
Bias	86.5
Rankings
PiRate	107
Mean	110
Bias	101
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	Central Michigan Chippewas
Head Coach	Dan Enos
Colors	Maroon and Gold
City	Mt. Pleasant, MI
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	53
Pass Offense	57
Run Defense	40
Pass Defense	46
Ratings
PiRate	84.4
Mean	89.9
Bias	84.6
Rankings
PiRate	109
Mean	102
Bias	109
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Eastern Michigan Eagles
Head Coach	Ron English
Colors	Dark Green and White
City	Ypsilanti, MI
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10
Grades
Run Offense	58
Pass Offense	35
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	48
Ratings
PiRate	79.5
Mean	83.6
Bias	79.2
Rankings
PiRate	119
Mean	118
Bias	120
Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11

 

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The first two rounds of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs are in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off in the opening round with the top four seeds receiving byes.  The quarterfinal round was played last week, and we are down to the Final Four.

 

To see the first round results, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-round-one/

 

To see the second round results, go to:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/14/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-quarterfinal-round/

 

The semifinal round was simulated earlier this morning. 

 

The Pairings

 

(5) Oregon 13-1  at  (1) Notre Dame 13-0

(3) Ohio State 13-0  at  (2) Alabama 13-1

 

Note: Ohio State was awarded the Big Ten’s automatic bid per PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Rules.  To see how this works, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-bracket-reveal/

 

The Results

Oregon 29  Notre Dame 23

 

ND	Team	Ore
23	Score	29
18	First Downs	18
42	Rush Attempts	48
151	Rush Yards	211
16	Pass Completions	18
29	Pass Attempts	26
182	Pass Yards	196
2	Intercepted	1
6-43.2	Punt Average	4-44.0
1-6	Punt Returns	3-19
3-58	Kick Returns	5-119
4-25	Penalties	9-67
1-0	Fumbles/Lost	1-1
2-11	Def: Sack-Yds	3-17
71	Plays	74
333	Total Yards	407

 

 

Alabama 19  Ohio State 16  (2 overtimes)

 

Ala	Team	OSU
19	Score	16
18	First Downs	16
55	Rush Attempts	43
215	Rush Yards	184
14	Pass Completions	16
24	Pass Attempts	29
176	Pass Yards	153
0	Intercepted	1
8-41.4	Punt Average	9-43.0
4-34	Punt Returns	2-5
2-38	Kick Returns	2-37
7-57	Penalties	8-62
1-1	Fumbles/Lost	2-1
3-19	Def: Sack-Yds	1-7
79	Plays	72
391	Total Yards	337

 

Simper Bowl VI is now set.  #2 Seed Alabama (14-1) takes on #5 Seed Oregon (14-1) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, next Friday, December 28, 2012.

 

Oregon is the defending Simper Bowl Champions.  Only one other team has won back-to-back Simper Bowls.  Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls in the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

 

Oddly, Alabama has not won a Simper Bowl.

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The Opening Round of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs is in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off with the top four seeds receiving byes.

 

To see the first round results, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-round-one/

 

Today’s results were accidentally erased, and the entire round had to be re-simulated.  The same four teams won the second simulations, so no real damage was done.

 

Here were the four quarterfinal game combatants.

#9 Seed: Stanford (12-2) at #1 Seed: Notre Dame (12-0)

#7 Seed: Georgia (12-2) at #2 Seed: Alabama (12-1)

#6 Seed: Kansas St. (12-1) at #3 Seed: Ohio State (12-0)

#5 Seed: Oregon (12-1) at #4 Seed: Florida (11-1)

 

Here are the results.

 

(1) Notre Dame 19  (9) Stanford 17

 

ND	Team	Stan
19	Score	17
17	First Downs	14
38	Rush Attempts	42
131	Rush Yards	151
16	Pass Completions	14
27	Pass Attempts	31
178	Pass Yards	201
1	Intercepted	3
7-41.6	Punt Average	5-42.4
2-13	Punt Returns	4-34
3-89	Kick Returns	2-41
5-35	Penalties	6-42
1-0	Fumbles/Lost	3-1
3-17	Def: Sack-Yds	1-5
65	Plays	73
309	Total Yards	352

 

 

(2) Alabama 24  (7) Georgia 16

 

Ala	Team	Ga
24	Score	16
23	First Downs	14
49	Rush Attempts	31
216	Rush Yards	74
11	Pass Completions	22
18	Pass Attempts	41
142	Pass Yards	288
0	Intercepted	3
6-39.7	Punt Average	6-44.0
2-37	Punt Returns	3-6
2-39	Kick Returns	3-52
6-39	Penalties	7-52
1-0	Fumbles/Lost	1-0
3-19	Def: Sack-Yds	1-4
67	Plays	72
358	Total Yards	362

 

 

(3) Ohio State 30  (6) Kansas State 20

 

OSU	Team	KSU
30	Score	20
25	First Downs	16
56	Rush Attempts	34
302	Rush Yards	105
11	Pass Completions	15
18	Pass Attempts	27
131	Pass Yards	143
0	Intercepted	2
3-41.3	Punt Average	6-42.5
3-50	Punt Returns	1-1
3-67	Kick Returns	4-86
2-15	Penalties	7-52
2-2	Fumbles/Lost	1-1
2-11	Def: Sack-Yds	0-0
74	Plays	61
433	Total Yards	248

 

 

(5) Oregon 34  (4) Florida 20

 

Fla	Team	Ore
20	Score	34
18	First Downs	26
41	Rush Attempts	54
139	Rush Yards	302
18	Pass Completions	16
32	Pass Attempts	27
171	Pass Yards	201
1	Intercepted	2
6-45.3	Punt Average	2-42.5
0-0	Punt Returns	3-28
5-112	Kick Returns	2-49
5-33	Penalties	7-54
1-0	Fumbles/Lost	0-0
0-0	Def: Sack-Yds	2-13
73	Plays	81
310	Total Yards	503

 

 

The Final Four is now set.  The semifinal round will be simulated next Friday, December 21.  Here are the pairings.

 

(5) Oregon 13-1  at  (1) Notre Dame 13-0

(3) Ohio State 13-0  at  (2) Alabama 13-1

 

Note: Ohio State was awarded the Big Ten’s automatic bid per PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Rules.  To see how this works, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-bracket-reveal/

 

See you next Friday with the semifinals.  The final round will be simulated on Friday, December 28.