The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 31, 2015

Computer Simulations–Simper Bowl IX & Today’s College Playoffs

We are combining our own computer simulation championship game from our annual project with the actual College Football Playoff games today into one entity.

 

Simper Bowl IX

This year, we decided to expand our own computer college playoff to 24 teams just like in the Football Championship Series.  The prior rounds have been played, and you can search for the results on this site.  The Championship Game today pits #3 seed Oklahoma against #16 seed Ole Miss.

Oklahoma received a first round bye as the #3 seed.  The Sooners defeated Michigan 47-28 in the Sweet 16; Ohio State 26-20 in the Elite 8; and Stanford 31-20 in the Semifinal Round.

Ole Miss had to play in the opening round as the #16 seed.  The Rebels defeated Houston 39-24 in that round to advance to the Sweet 16.  Then, Ole Miss defeated top-ranked Clemson 35-20 in the Sweet 16; North Carolina 27-16 in the Elite 8; and Michigan State 27-17 in the Semifinals.

 

Here are the championship results.

Simper Bowl IX 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#3 Oklahoma 10 6 7 7 30 22 166 252 418
#16 Ole Miss 13 7 0 14 34 27 249 302 551

Congratulations to the Ole Miss Rebels, winner of Simper Bowl IX.

 

The College Football Playoffs 2015-16–The Real Larry Culpepper Playoffs

This is what you have been waiting for.  Yesterday, we input all the stats and schedule strengths for the four teams in today’s playoffs.  We even included the recent suspensions of Clemson players in the loss of talent.

 

We then simulated both games 100 times coming up with the number of wins, the average score, the standard deviations of the games, and the outlier scores in both directions.

 

Orange Bowl

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL

Time: 4:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, and Holly Rowe

Radio: ESPN, Bill Rosinksi, David Norrie, Joe Schad

Teams: Clemson (13-0) vs. Oklahoma (11-1)

100 Sims

Clemson wins: 39

Oklahoma wins: 61

Average Score: Oklahoma 30.7  Clemson 22.1

Standard Deviation: 8.6

Outlier A: Oklahoma 51  Clemson  16

Outlier B: Clemson 37  Oklahoma 14

 

Cotton Bowl

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Time: 8:00 PM Eastern Time

TV: ESPN, Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, Heather Cox, and Tom Rinaldi

Radio: ESPN, Brad Sham, Danny Kannell, and Ian Fitzsimmons

Teams: Alabama (12-1) vs. Michigan St. (12-1)

100 Sims

Alabama wins: 53

Michigan St. wins: 47

Average Score: Alabama 20.5  Michigan St. 18.8

Standard Deviation: 5.7

Outlier A: Alabama 31  Michigan St. 6

Outlier B: Michigan St. 27  Alabama 16

December 26, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Semifinal Round of the 2015-16 PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs have been played, and the Final Four has now been whittled down to two.

 

In case you are wondering why Michigan St., Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Stanford are the Final Four teams, this season’s simulation used the Football Championship Series format of 24 teams.  Michigan St. defeated Baylor and Iowa to make it to the semifinals.  Ole Miss defeated Houston, Clemson, and North Carolina, as the Rebels were the #16 seed and had to win a play-in game to make it to the Sweet 16.  Oklahoma defeated Michigan and Ohio St., while Stanford got here by knocking off Florida St. and Alabama.

 

Here are the Final Four Semifinal Results.

Semifinal Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss 3 14 7 3 27 18 129 268 397
#5 Michigan St. 0 7 10 0 17 17 161 158 327
                   
#3 Oklahoma 0 3 21 7 31 22 154 247 401
#7 Stanford 7 6 0 7 20 17 169 158 327

This sets up Simper Bowl IX at Arlington, Texas, next week.  16th-seed Ole Miss will play 3rd-seed Oklahoma.

 

Fear not ye of computer simulation tremors.  Next week, we will run our annual 100 sims on the playoff games–the real ones where that sugar-addicted dude Larry Culpepper will be lurking around somewhere.

 

 

December 19, 2015

PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The first two rounds of the Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs have been previously posted here.  Today’s Quarterfinal Round featured three teams from the Big Ten, two from the SEC, and one each from the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12.

If you have not been following our 2015-16 tournament, we are using the same 24-team format currently in use by the Football Championship Division.  Here are the contests for the football version of the Elite 8.

Quarterfinal Round   1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#16 Ole Miss at 10 14 0 3 27 24 163 242 405
#8 North Carolina   7 6 3 0 16 17 145 189 334
                     
#7 Stanford at 7 0 3 7 17 12 130 169 299
#2 Alabama   3 3 7 0 13 17 202 116 318
                     
#6 Ohio St. at 0 3 14 3 20 20 221 106 327
#3 Oklahoma   5 7 14 0 26 22 137 303 440
                     
#5 Michigan St. at 3 3 7 10 23 19 129 222 351
#4 Iowa   0 14 0 7 21 16 172 133 305

The Final Four is now set.  In next week’s semifinal round, it will be:

#16 Ole Miss vs. #5 Michigan St. at the Orange Bowl

#7 Stanford vs. #3 Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl

December 11, 2015

Computer Simulated NCAA Playoffs 2015-16: Round 2

Welcome back to round 2 of our computer simulated college football playoffs.  If you did not see last week’s posting of round 1, we are taking the Football Bowl Subdivision teams and applying the Football Championship Series rules to the playoffs.

 

Thus our FBS simulated playoffs consisted of 24 teams with every conference champion guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.

 

Here were this week’s Round 2 Pairings.

Second Round
#9 Notre Dame at
#8 North Carolina  
   
#10 Florida St. at
#7 Stanford  
   
#11 TCU at
#6 Ohio St.  
   
#12 Baylor at
#5 Michigan St.  
   
#13 Northwestern at
#4 Iowa  
   
#19 Michigan at
#3 Oklahoma  
   
#15 Oregon at
#2 Alabama  
   
#16 Ole Miss at
#1 Clemson  

 

The games were simulated, and there were some surprises.  Here are the final scores of the games.

North Carolina 27  Notre Dame 23

Stanford 24  Florida St. 20

Ohio St. 34  TCU 21

Michigan St. 27  Baylor 24

Iowa 23 Northwestern 17

Oklahoma 47  Michigan 28

Alabama 20  Oregon 16

Ole Miss 35  Clemson 20

 

Here are the basic stats for those games.

Second Round 1 2 3 4 F FD Rush Pass Total
#9 Notre Dame at 0 14 6 3 23 19 171 149 320
#8 North Carolina   7 10 3 7 27 20 135 271 406
                     
#10 Florida St. at 6 14 0 0 20 17 183 128 311
#7 Stanford   3 7 7 7 24 18 206 149 355
                     
#11 TCU at 0 7 14 0 21 18 130 211 341
#6 Ohio St.   6 3 15 10 34 34 271 138 409
                     
#12 Baylor at 0 3 14 7 24 23 98 226 324
#5 Michigan St.   6 14 7 0 27 16 188 177 365
                     
#13 Northwestern at 10 0 7 0 17 16 129 176 305
#4 Iowa   0 6 3 14 23 16 135 153 288
                     
#19 Michigan at 0 7 7 14 28 22 169 250 419
#3 Oklahoma   14 17 9 7 47 27 251 279 530
                     
#15 Oregon at 3 3 10 0 16 14 76 202 278
#2 Alabama   7 7 3 3 20 18 247 139 386
                     
#16 Ole Miss at 21 7 7 0 35 23 190 194 384
#1 Clemson   0 6 7 7 20 17 147 161 308

 

Here are the pairings for the Quarterfinal Round.

Quarterfinal Round  
#16 Ole Miss at
#8 North Carolina  
   
#7 Stanford at
#2 Alabama  
   
#6 Ohio St. at
#3 Oklahoma  
   
#5 Michigan St. at
#4 Iowa  

January 6, 2014

Simper Bowl VII

Filed under: 2013 Simulated NCAA Playoffs — Tags: , , , , — piratings @ 7:23 pm

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 received automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt received automatic bids if any finished in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaced the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we used an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then selected the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and gave them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seeded the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams received a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 faced off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

In the quarterfinal round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/28/2013-14-ncaa-football-computer-simulation-playoffs-quarterfinals/

 

South Carolina upset Florida St., Stanford defeated Michigan St., Oregon upset Auburn, and Missouri upset Alabama to make this the first time in the PiRate Simulation history that a top-3 seed did not make the semifinal round.

 

In the semifinals, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/01/01/pirate-ratings-computer-simulated-college-football-playoffs-semifinals/

 

Stanford defeated South Carolina and Oregon knocked off Missouri to set up an all Pac-12 North National Championship Simulation, Simper Bowl VII.

 

And without further adieu, your winner for 2013-14 is: Oregon!  The Ducks win their third consecutive Simper Bowl.

 

Final Score: Oregon 32  Stanford 10

 

Stan

Team

Ore

 

 

 

13

FD

22

 

 

 

35-88

Rushing

52-331

 

 

 

182

Passing

218

 

 

 

17-32-3

Passes

19-29-1

 

 

 

67

Play

81

 

 

 

270

Yards

549

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Stan

3

0

7

0

10

Ore

10

6

9

7

32

 

Note: Oregon lost three fumbles and had one punt blocked, which led to both of Stanford’s scores.

December 28, 2013

2013-14 NCAA Football Computer Simulation Playoffs–Quarterfinals

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

 

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

 

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

 

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

 

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

 

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

 

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

 

For this computer simulation, games were simulated on a simulator located on a major university campus.

 

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

 

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

 

The top four seeds received first round byes, while teams 5-12 played at neutral site bowls in round one.

 

In the first round, which can be viewed at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/1555/

 

South Carolina, Oregon, Missouri, and Michigan St. advanced to the quarterfinal round.

 

Today’s quarterfinal games look like this:

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

 

#1 Florida St. vs. #8 South Carolina

We had our first major upset in the tournament, as the Gamecocks came from behind in the fourth quarter thanks to an incredible defensive effort.

 

Final Score: South Carolina 18   Florida St. 16

 

FSU

Team

Scar

 

 

 

18

FD

15

 

 

 

31-84

Rushing

42-161

 

 

 

214

Passing

146

 

 

 

19-37-2

Passes

13-21-0

 

 

 

68

Play

63

 

 

 

298

Yards

307

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

FSU

7

6

3

0

16

Scar

0

3

3

12

18

 

#4 Stanford vs. #5 Michigan St.

In a match of the two teams headed to the Rose Bowl in reality, the Cardinal dominated the game for four quarters to advance to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Stanford 20  Michigan St. 10

 

Stan

Team

MSU

 

 

 

16

FD

12

 

 

 

39-144

Rushing

33-128

 

 

 

191

Passing

152

 

 

 

17-27-0

Passes

16-28-1

 

 

 

66

Play

61

 

 

 

335

Yards

280

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Stan

3

3

7

7

20

MSU

0

0

10

0

10

 

 

#2 Auburn vs. #10 Oregon

In a nip and tuck offensive explosion, the Ducks wiped out the other top seed, preventing the actual national championship contenders from advancing to the semifinals.

 

Final Score: Oregon 52  Auburn 49

 

Aub

Team

Ore

 

 

 

26

FD

23

 

 

 

55-297

Rushing

43-224

 

 

 

223

Passing

309

 

 

 

19-29-1

Passes

21-34-0

 

 

 

84

Play

77

 

 

 

520

Yards

533

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Aub

14

21

7

7

49

Ore

10

14

21

7

52

 

#3 Alabama vs. #6 Missouri

Alabama mounted a huge 2nd half comeback to force overtime, but a missed extra point cost the Tide and the Tigers advanced to the semis.

 

Final Score: Missouri 24 Alabama 23 ot

 

Ala

Team

Mo

 

 

 

 

16

FD

21

 

 

 

 

34-126

Rushing

55-211

 

 

 

 

233

Passing

160

 

 

 

 

19-30-0

Passes

14-22-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

77

 

 

 

 

359

Yards

371

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

OT

F

Ala

0

3

0

14

6

23

MO

0

7

10

0

7

24

 

The Semifinal Round is now set.  Here are your Final Four Match-ups:

 

#4 Stanford vs. #8 South Carolina

#6 Missouri vs. #10 Oregon

 

In the years we have simulated these playoffs, this is the lowest total of seeded teams ever to make the semifinals. Check back on New Year’s Eve to see which two teams advance to the 2014 Simper Bowl.

December 20, 2013

PiRate Ratings 2013 College Football Computer Simulation Playoffs

1. This is a 12-team tournament, using bowls for the first two rounds to get from 12 to 8 to 4.

2. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 receive automatic bids.

3. The champions of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, MWC, and Sunbelt receive automatic bids if any finish in the top 16 of the RPI rankings, which replaces the BCS and has mathematical values that multiple mathematicians can determine and cannot be finagled in any way by football politicians in a back room.  For this experiment, we are using an average of the top college ratings, including the PiRate Ratings.

4. We then select the two to seven highest RPI-ranked teams (to fill the bracket at 12 total) not automatically selected and give them berths in the tournament.

5. We then seed the teams by RPI ranking from 1-12.  The top 4 teams would receive a first round bye as a reward for being one of the top four, while seeds 5-12 would face off in the first round.

This year, there were six automatic qualifiers and six at-large selections.  Florida St., Baylor, Michigan St., Auburn, and Stanford satisfy the #2 criteria above, whereas Central Florida satisfies #3.  The six at-large teams are: Alabama, Missouri, Ohio St., South Carolina, Oregon, and Oklahoma.

If this were next year, there would be a gross miscarriage of justice to the teams that are not number four.  Florida St., Auburn, and Alabama would definitely be three of the teams chosen.  Baylor, Michigan St., Stanford, Ohio St., Missouri, South Carolina, and Oregon would all have reason to be that fourth team, and only one of this seven would be chosen.  Now, the first team out is Clemson, not quite as deserving as any of the seven above, all of whom now make the 12-team tournament.

Here are the teams, seeded 1-12

1. Florida St.

2. Auburn

3. Alabama

4. Stanford

5. Michigan St.

6. Missouri

7. Ohio St.

8. South Carolina

9. Baylor

10. Oregon

11. Oklahoma

12. Central Florida

The top four seeds receive first round byes, while teams 5-12 play at neutral site bowls.

Here are the results for Round One.  Round Two will be published next Friday.  The Semifinals will be published New Year’s Eve, and the Championship Game will be published Friday, January 3.

# 5 Michigan St. 12-1 vs. #12 Central Florida 11-1

 

Michigan St. 20  Central Florida 10

 

Mich St.

Team

Cent. Fla

 

 

 

17

FD

14

 

 

 

35-138

Rushing

24-87

 

 

 

223

Passing

239

 

 

 

21-38-0

Passes

25-42-3

 

 

 

73

Play

66

 

 

 

361

Yards

326

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Mich St.

3

7

0

10

20

Cent. Fla

0

0

7

3

10

 

 

#6 Missouri 11-2 vs. #11 Oklahoma 10-2

 

Missouri 44 Oklahoma 35

 

Missouri

Team

Oklahoma

 

 

 

22

FD

25

 

 

 

45-188

Rushing

44-218

 

 

 

251

Passing

209

 

 

 

18-31-1

Passes

19-34-1

 

 

 

76

Play

78

 

 

 

439

Yards

427

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Missouri

13

14

7

10

44

Oklahoma

7

14

0

14

35

 

 

#7 Ohio St. 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 10-2

 

Oregon 48  Ohio St. 29

 

Ohio St.

Team

Oregon

 

 

 

21

FD

24

 

 

 

41-179

Rushing

51-275

 

 

 

221

Passing

286

 

 

 

17-28-1

Passes

22-34-0

 

 

 

69

Play

85

 

 

 

400

Yards

561

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

Ohio St.

10

6

6

7

29

Oregon

11

20

14

3

48

 

 

#8 South Carolina vs. #9 Baylor

 

South Carolina 34  Baylor 19

 

S Car

Team

Bay

 

 

 

19

FD

22

 

 

 

47-197

Rushing

32-79

 

 

 

127

Passing

241

 

 

 

12-19-0

Passes

23-43-3

 

 

 

66

Play

75

 

 

 

324

Yards

320

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

F

S Car

10

10

7

7

34

Bay

7

9

0

3

19

 

 

The Elite Eight Schedule

#1 Florida St. 13-0 vs. #8 South Carolina 11-2

#2 Auburn 12-1 vs. #10 Oregon 11-2

#3 Alabama 11-1 vs. #6 Missouri 12-2

#4 Stanford 11-2 vs. #5 Michigan St. 13-1

 

August 16, 2013

2013 Mid-American Conference Football Preview

2013 Mid-American Conference Preview

 

The MAC achieved special status last season, with two schools challenging for a BCS Bowl bid.  Kent State moved into prime position to grab that bowl with an 11-1 regular season that brought the Golden Flashes into the top 20 and just inside the parameters needed to steal a bid.

 

At the same time, Northern Illinois won 11 games in a row after an opening one-point loss at Iowa, and the Huskies moved into the top 20 as well.

 

In the MAC Championship Game, NIU bested Kent State in one of the most exciting conference championship games of all time.  The game went to double overtime, before the Huskies emerged victorious.  They earned an Orange Bowl bid to face Florida State, where they showed they really did not belong in a BCS Bowl.

 

Now, both of the two powers from 2012 must replace successful coaches who received nice pay increases to move to the big time.  Former NIU coach Dave Doeren now calls the shots at North Carolina St., while Kent State’s Darrell Hazell is the new man at Purdue.

 

2013 looks to be a typical year for the MAC, not one where one team should make a run toward a BCS Bowl bid, but one where as many as six teams could find themselves in a bowl at the end of the year.

 

This is one league that experiences no additions or departures.

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

 

Mid-American Conference  
East Division  
Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

 
Bowling Green

0-0

0-0

98.7

100.3

99.8

 
Buffalo

0-0

0-0

92.8

95.2

93.2

 
Ohio

0-0

0-0

91.9

97.8

93.4

 
Kent St.

0-0

0-0

89.5

93.8

90.1

 
Miami (O)

0-0

0-0

83.5

85.1

82.9

 
Akron

0-0

0-0

80.8

89.3

80.2

 
Massachusetts

0-0

0-0

70.6

81.1

70.2

 
     

 

 

 

 
West Division
Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

 
Toledo

0-0

0-0

98.6

98.3

99.2

 
Northern Illinois

0-0

0-0

97.8

97.0

99.6

 
Ball St.

0-0

0-0

97.1

99.3

98.3

 
Western Michigan

0-0

0-0

85.2

86.7

86.5

 
Central Michigan

0-0

0-0

84.4

89.9

84.6

 
Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

79.5

83.6

79.2

 
     

 

 

 

 
League Averages    

88.5

92.1

89.0

 

 

Official Pre-season Media Poll

 
MAC-East      

Pos

Team

Votes

1st Place

 

1

Ohio

164

15

 

2

Bowling Green

154

8

 

3

Kent St.

119

1

 

4

Buffalo

101

1

 

5

Miami (O)

78

0

 

6

Akron

53

0

 

7

Massachusetts

29

0

 
         
MAC-West      

Pos

Team

Votes

1st Place

 

1

Northern Illinois

138

16

 

2

Toledo

122

5

 

3

Ball St.

108

3

 

4

Central Michigan

67

1

 

5

Western Michigan

61

0

 

6

Eastern Michigan

29

0

 
         
MAC Championship Game Winner    

1

Northern Illinois

14

   

2

Toledo

3

   

3

Ohio

3

   

4

Bowling Green

2

   

5

Ball St.

2

   

6

Central Michigan

1

   

 

 

The Mid-American Conference does not announce a preseason All-MAC team.  In lieu, here are key players for each team:

 

MAC East

Akron: Cody Grice—DL, Malachi Freeman—DB, Jawon Chisholm—RB, Jerron Dillard—WR

 

Bowling Green: Matt Schilz—QB, Chris Gallon and Shaun Joplin—WR, Dominic Flewellyn—OL, Gabe Martin—LB

 

Buffalo: Branden Oliver—RB, Alex Neutz—WR, Khalil Mack—LB, Colby Way—DL, Najja Johnson—DB

 

Kent St.: Dri Archer and Trayion Durham—RB, Pat McShane—OL, Luke Wollet—DB, Roosevelt Nix—DL, Anthony Melchiori—P

 

Massachusetts: Mike Wegzyn—QB, Rob Blanchflower—TE, Colter Johnson—P

 

Miami (O): Dawan Scott—WR, Steve Marck—TE, Chris Wade—LB, Brison Burris and Dayonne Nunley—DB

 

Ohio: Tyler Tettleton—QB, Beau Blankenship—RB, Donte Foster—WR, John Prior—OL, Keith Moore—LB, Travis Carrie—DB

 

MAC West

Ball St.: Keith Wenning—QB, Jahwan Edwards—RB, Willie Snead and Jamill Smith—WR, Zane Fakes—TE, Jordan Hansel—OL, Jonathan Newsome and Nathan Ollie—DL, Eric Patterson and Jeffery Garrett—DB

 

Central Michigan: Zurlon Tipton—RB, Titus Davis—WR, Nick Beamish—OL, Justin Cherocci and Shamari Benton—LB

 

Eastern Michigan: Tyler Benz—QB, Bronson Hill—RB, Campbell Allison—OL, Donald Coleman—DB

 

Northern Illinois: Jordan Lynch—QB, Tommylee Lewis—WR, Tyler Loos, Jared Volk, Aidan Conlon, Andrew Ness, and Ryan Brown—OL, Jimmie Ward—DB, Jamaal Bass—LB, Mathew Sims—K

 

Toledo: Terrance Owens—QB, David Fluellen—RB, Bernard Reedy and Alzono Russell—WR, Greg Mancz—OL, Cheatham Norrils—DB, Trent Voss–LB (Reedy in return game)

 

Western Michigan: Tyler Van Tubbergen—QB, Jaime Wilson—WR, Johnnie Simon—LB/DB hybrid, Justin Currie—DB, Desmond Bozeman–LB

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

EAST DIVISION

Team

Bowling Green Falcons

               
Head Coach

Dave Clawson

               
Colors

Orange and Brown

               
City

Bowling Green, OH

               
2012 Record              
Conference

6-2

Overall

8-5

               
Grades              
Run Offense

61

Pass Offense

72

Run Defense

63

Pass Defense

58

               
Ratings              
PiRate

98.7

Mean

100.3

Bias

99.8

               
Rankings              
PiRate

63

Mean

61

Bias

60

               
Prediction              
Conference

8-0

Overall

11-2 (win MAC title game)

 

 

Team

Buffalo Bulls

               
Head Coach

Jeff Quinn

               
Colors

Royal Blue and White

               
City

Buffalo

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-5

Overall

4-8

               
Grades              
Run Offense

57

Pass Offense

62

Run Defense

58

Pass Defense

54

               
Ratings              
PiRate

92.8

Mean

95.2

Bias

93.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

85

Mean

82

Bias

86

               
Prediction              
Conference

5-3

Overall

7-5

 

 

Team

Ohio Bobcats

               
Head Coach

Frank Solich

               
Colors

Hunter Green and White

               
City

Athens, OH

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-4

Overall

9-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

63

Pass Offense

67

Run Defense

52

Pass Defense

46

               
Ratings              
PiRate

91.9

Mean

97.8

Bias

93.4

               
Rankings              
PiRate

88

Mean

67

Bias

85

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-2

Overall

9-3

 

 

Team

Kent St. Golden Flashes

               
Head Coach

Paul Haynes

               
Colors

Blue and Gold

               
City

Kent, OH

               
2012 Record              
Conference

7-1

Overall

11-3

               
Grades              
Run Offense

75

Pass Offense

44

Run Defense

62

Pass Defense

44

               
Ratings              
PiRate

89.5

Mean

93.8

Bias

90.1

               
Rankings              
PiRate

94

Mean

88

Bias

94

               
Prediction              
Conference

4-4

Overall

6-6

 

 

Team

Miami (O) Redhawks

               
Head Coach

Don Treadwell

               
Colors

Red and White

               
City

Oxford, OH

               
2012 Record              
Conference

3-5

Overall

4-8

               
Grades              
Run Offense

36

Pass Offense

64

Run Defense

41

Pass Defense

48

               
Ratings              
PiRate

83.5

Mean

85.1

Bias

82.9

               
Rankings              
PiRate

111

Mean

116

Bias

112

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

3-9

 

 

Team

Akron Zips

               
Head Coach

Terry Bowden

               
Colors

 

               
City

Akron, OH

               
2012 Record              
Conference

0-8

Overall

1-11

               
Grades              
Run Offense

37

Pass Offense

59

Run Defense

38

Pass Defense

45

               
Ratings              
PiRate

80.8

Mean

89.3

Bias

80.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

116

Mean

104

Bias

117

               
Prediction              
Conference

1-7

Overall

2-10

 

 

Team

Massachusetts Minutemen

               
Head Coach

Charley Molnar

               
Colors

Maroon and White

               
City

Amherst, MA

               
2012 Record              
Conference

1-7

Overall

1-11

               
Grades              
Run Offense

27

Pass Offense

40

Run Defense

35

Pass Defense

38

               
Ratings              
PiRate

70.6

Mean

81.1

Bias

70.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

124

Mean

122

Bias

123

               
Prediction              
Conference

0-8

Overall

0-12

 

 

WEST DIVISION

Team

Toledo Rockets

               
Head Coach

Matt Campbell

               
Colors

Midnight Blue & Gold

               
City

Toledo, OH

               
2012 Record              
Conference

7-1

Overall

9-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

62

Pass Offense

77

Run Defense

60

Pass Defense

54

               
Ratings              
PiRate

98.6

Mean

98.3

Bias

99.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

65

Mean

65

Bias

64

               
Prediction              
Conference

6-2

Overall

8-4

 

 

Team

Northern Illinois Huskies

               
Head Coach

Rod Carey

               
Colors

Red and Black

               
City

DeKalb, IL

               
2012 Record              
Conference

8-0 (won MAC title game)

Overall

12-2

               
Grades              
Run Offense

71

Pass Offense

65

Run Defense

66

Pass Defense

52

               
Ratings              
PiRate

97.8

Mean

97.0

Bias

99.6

               
Rankings              
PiRate

70

Mean

74

Bias

61

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1

Overall

9-4 (lose MAC title game)

 

 

Team

Ball St. Cardinals

               
Head Coach

Pete Lembo

               
Colors

Cardinal, Black, and White

               
City

Muncie, IN

               
2012 Record              
Conference

6-2

Overall

9-4

               
Grades              
Run Offense

64

Pass Offense

78

Run Defense

50

Pass Defense

54

               
Ratings              
PiRate

97.1

Mean

99.3

Bias

98.3

               
Rankings              
PiRate

73

Mean

63

Bias

69

               
Prediction              
Conference

7-1

Overall

10-2

 

 

Team

Western Michigan Broncos

               
Head Coach

P. J. Fleck

               
Colors

Brown & Gold (also Black & Silver)

               
City

Kalamazoo, MI

               
2012 Record              
Conference

2-6

Overall

4-8

               
Grades              
Run Offense

38

Pass Offense

69

Run Defense

39

Pass Defense

49

               
Ratings              
PiRate

85.2

Mean

86.7

Bias

86.5

               
Rankings              
PiRate

107

Mean

110

Bias

101

               
Prediction              
Conference

3-5

Overall

4-8

 

 

Team

Central Michigan Chippewas

               
Head Coach

Dan Enos

               
Colors

Maroon and Gold

               
City

Mt. Pleasant, MI

               
2012 Record              
Conference

4-4

Overall

7-6

               
Grades              
Run Offense

53

Pass Offense

57

Run Defense

40

Pass Defense

46

               
Ratings              
PiRate

84.4

Mean

89.9

Bias

84.6

               
Rankings              
PiRate

109

Mean

102

Bias

109

               
Prediction              
Conference

2-6

Overall

3-9

 

 

Team

Eastern Michigan Eagles

               
Head Coach

Ron English

               
Colors

Dark Green and White

               
City

Ypsilanti, MI

               
2012 Record              
Conference

1-7

Overall

2-10

               
Grades              
Run Offense

58

Pass Offense

35

Run Defense

39

Pass Defense

48

               
Ratings              
PiRate

79.5

Mean

83.6

Bias

79.2

               
Rankings              
PiRate

119

Mean

118

Bias

120

               
Prediction              
Conference

0-8

Overall

1-11

 

December 21, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The first two rounds of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs are in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off in the opening round with the top four seeds receiving byes.  The quarterfinal round was played last week, and we are down to the Final Four.

 

To see the first round results, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-round-one/

 

To see the second round results, go to:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/14/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-quarterfinal-round/

 

The semifinal round was simulated earlier this morning. 

 

The Pairings

 

(5) Oregon 13-1  at  (1) Notre Dame 13-0

(3) Ohio State 13-0  at  (2) Alabama 13-1

 

Note: Ohio State was awarded the Big Ten’s automatic bid per PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Rules.  To see how this works, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-bracket-reveal/

 

The Results

Oregon 29  Notre Dame 23

 

ND

Team

Ore

23

Score

29

18

First Downs

18

42

Rush Attempts

48

151

Rush Yards

211

16

Pass Completions

18

29

Pass Attempts

26

182

Pass Yards

196

2

Intercepted

1

6-43.2

Punt Average

4-44.0

1-6

Punt Returns

3-19

3-58

Kick Returns

5-119

4-25

Penalties

9-67

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

2-11

Def: Sack-Yds

3-17

71

Plays

74

333

Total Yards

407

 

 

Alabama 19  Ohio State 16  (2 overtimes)

 

Ala

Team

OSU

19

Score

16

18

First Downs

16

55

Rush Attempts

43

215

Rush Yards

184

14

Pass Completions

16

24

Pass Attempts

29

176

Pass Yards

153

0

Intercepted

1

8-41.4

Punt Average

9-43.0

4-34

Punt Returns

2-5

2-38

Kick Returns

2-37

7-57

Penalties

8-62

1-1

Fumbles/Lost

2-1

3-19

Def: Sack-Yds

1-7

79

Plays

72

391

Total Yards

337

 

Simper Bowl VI is now set.  #2 Seed Alabama (14-1) takes on #5 Seed Oregon (14-1) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, next Friday, December 28, 2012.

 

Oregon is the defending Simper Bowl Champions.  Only one other team has won back-to-back Simper Bowls.  Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls in the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

 

Oddly, Alabama has not won a Simper Bowl.

December 14, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The Opening Round of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs is in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off with the top four seeds receiving byes.

 

To see the first round results, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-round-one/

 

Today’s results were accidentally erased, and the entire round had to be re-simulated.  The same four teams won the second simulations, so no real damage was done.

 

Here were the four quarterfinal game combatants.

#9 Seed: Stanford (12-2) at #1 Seed: Notre Dame (12-0)

#7 Seed: Georgia (12-2) at #2 Seed: Alabama (12-1)

#6 Seed: Kansas St. (12-1) at #3 Seed: Ohio State (12-0)

#5 Seed: Oregon (12-1) at #4 Seed: Florida (11-1)

 

Here are the results.

 

(1) Notre Dame 19  (9) Stanford 17

 

ND

Team

Stan

19

Score

17

17

First Downs

14

38

Rush Attempts

42

131

Rush Yards

151

16

Pass Completions

14

27

Pass Attempts

31

178

Pass Yards

201

1

Intercepted

3

7-41.6

Punt Average

5-42.4

2-13

Punt Returns

4-34

3-89

Kick Returns

2-41

5-35

Penalties

6-42

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

3-1

3-17

Def: Sack-Yds

1-5

65

Plays

73

309

Total Yards

352

 

 

(2) Alabama 24  (7) Georgia 16

 

Ala

Team

Ga

24

Score

16

23

First Downs

14

49

Rush Attempts

31

216

Rush Yards

74

11

Pass Completions

22

18

Pass Attempts

41

142

Pass Yards

288

0

Intercepted

3

6-39.7

Punt Average

6-44.0

2-37

Punt Returns

3-6

2-39

Kick Returns

3-52

6-39

Penalties

7-52

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-0

3-19

Def: Sack-Yds

1-4

67

Plays

72

358

Total Yards

362

 

 

(3) Ohio State 30  (6) Kansas State 20

 

OSU

Team

KSU

30

Score

20

25

First Downs

16

56

Rush Attempts

34

302

Rush Yards

105

11

Pass Completions

15

18

Pass Attempts

27

131

Pass Yards

143

0

Intercepted

2

3-41.3

Punt Average

6-42.5

3-50

Punt Returns

1-1

3-67

Kick Returns

4-86

2-15

Penalties

7-52

2-2

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

2-11

Def: Sack-Yds

0-0

74

Plays

61

433

Total Yards

248

 

 

(5) Oregon 34  (4) Florida 20

 

Fla

Team

Ore

20

Score

34

18

First Downs

26

41

Rush Attempts

54

139

Rush Yards

302

18

Pass Completions

16

32

Pass Attempts

27

171

Pass Yards

201

1

Intercepted

2

6-45.3

Punt Average

2-42.5

0-0

Punt Returns

3-28

5-112

Kick Returns

2-49

5-33

Penalties

7-54

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

0-0

0-0

Def: Sack-Yds

2-13

73

Plays

81

310

Total Yards

503

 

 

The Final Four is now set.  The semifinal round will be simulated next Friday, December 21.  Here are the pairings.

 

(5) Oregon 13-1  at  (1) Notre Dame 13-0

(3) Ohio State 13-0  at  (2) Alabama 13-1

 

Note: Ohio State was awarded the Big Ten’s automatic bid per PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Rules.  To see how this works, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-bracket-reveal/

 

See you next Friday with the semifinals.  The final round will be simulated on Friday, December 28.

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