The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 26, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 27-October 1, 2018

Another week, another minor profit-maker.  The PiRate Rating selections last week ended with a tiny profit of $60 on $900 invested, finishing 5-4.  For the season, the imaginary bank roll now stands at +$110 on an investment of $3,500 for a meager profit that gives us a Return on Investment of 3.14%.  It beats a loss, but the way the NYSE and Nasdaq have been accruing this year, your real money would be better invested.  On the plus side, that 3.14% return so far has been done in one month, so it isn’t that bad, just not matching some of our outstanding past seasons.

We are issuing a lot of official picks this week, 11 in all.  We have included 3, 10-point teaser picks after not using them last week.

Now, for what many of you really like this year–our 5 guest Land Sharps.  Guess what?  All 5 of our distinguished and honored contributors are in the black for the year.  Last week, Friday Dog 13 went 4-1 to bring his record for the season to 8-3.  With a Return on Investment of 42.7%, he is breathing down the neck of leader Buckeye Michelle, who at 11-4 has a Return on Investment of 44.0%.  Cal Gal Tiffy is 11-6 with a Return on Investment of 25.9%.  Dean615 is 6-5 with a Return on Investment of 4.5%, while the real pro, Stewed Meat is 8-7 with a Return on Investment of 2.0%.  Stewed is a bit stewed this week and says this will not stand.

The Land Sharps’ picks can be found after we issue our “official” PiRate Rating selections for the week.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks for September 27 to October 1, 2018

Games Picked Against the Spread 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Army Buffalo 8.5 Army
Ball St. Kent St. 8 Kent St.
Purdue Nebraska 3 Purdue
Appalachian St. South Alabama 26 South Alabama
New Mexico Liberty 6 New Mexico
Hawaii San Jose St. 12.5 San Jose St.
Green Bay Buffalo 10.5 Buffalo
Indiana Houston 1 Indianapolis

 

10-Point Teaser Spreads (3-team parlays)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
UCLA Colorado 1 Colorado
North Carolina St. Virginia 15.5 Virginia
Ohio St. Penn St. 14 Penn St.

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Chicago Tampa Bay 13 Tampa Bay
Houston Indianapolis 9 Indianapolis
New England Miami 17 Miami

 

10-Point Teaser Totals (3-team parlay)

Home Visitor Total Pick
Green Bay Buffalo 35 Over
Dallas Detroit 33.5 Over
Jacksonville N.Y. Jets 28.5 Over

 

The Land Sharps Picks

Buckeye Michelle

  1. Bowling Green +28 1/2 vs. Georgia Tech
  2. Louisville +6 1/2 vs. Florida St.
  3. Army +8 1/2 vs.  Buffalo
  4. Kent St. +8 vs. Ball St.
  5. Western Michigan Pk. vs. Miami (O)

 

Friday Dog 13

  1. Purdue -3 vs. Nebraska
  2. Florida St. -6 1/2 vs. Louisville
  3. Penn St. +4 vs. Ohio St.
  4. LSU -11 1/2 vs. Ole Miss
  5. Stanford +5 vs. Notre Dame

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

  1. Tulane +14 vs. Memphis
  2. Colorado -9 vs. UCLA
  3. Arkansas +21 vs. Texas A&M
  4. Syracuse +24 vs. Clemson
  5. Bowling Green +28 1/2 vs. Georgia Tech
  6. Texas Tech +3 1/2 vs. West Virginia
  7. Virginia +5 1/2 vs. North Carolina St.
  8. Purdue -3 vs. Nebraska
  9. Penn St. +4 vs. Ohio St.

 

Dean615

  1. Notre Dame -5 vs. Stanford
  2. Michigan -14 vs. Northwestern
  3. Texas -9 vs. Kansas St.

 

Stewed Meat

  1. Texas Tech +3 1/2 vs. West Virginia
  2. East Carolina -5 vs. Old Dominion
  3. Clemson-Syracuse Under 67
  4. North Carolina St-Virginia Under 53
  5. Oklahoma-Baylor Under 69
  6. Texas-Kansas St. Under 48
  7. Michigan-Northwestern Under 48

 

Reminder:  With the exception of Stewed Meat, who is a professional handicapper, none of us here actually wager real money on our picks.  These are for entertainment purposes only, just for fun.  Additionally, Stewed does not reveal the actual picks played.  These are Stewed’s runner up games that are not used for real.  Stewed has 5 real picks this weekend, none of which are shown above.  Stewed routinely beats the spread 62% of the time over the last 12 years and has no intention of revealing the games Stewed really plays.

Let this be a lesson to all of you.  When a Sharp really is successful against the spread, he or she never lets others know who he or she is wagering on.  He/She wants the odds to stay as much in his/her favor as possible.  If Great Sports Handicapper John Doe can consistently win 5 out of every 8 wagers made, the books will eventually cut John Doe’s maximums if not totally kick him out of their book.

Occasionally, these books may need these John Doe’s to balance out when the public has come in hard on one side, which is why Stewed is still allowed to play at 6 or 7 books in Nevada.

When somebody tells you that he or she has a sure 5-star lock, and all you have to do is pay X dollars to get these picks (or call an 800 number and get the pick for free), believe us–they do not have a sure lock, because if they did, they’d be keeping it to themselves.  

Some of these fake touts are totally dishonest.  Depending on your area code, you might be told to take Team A or Team B on these 800 lines.  Somebody in Hartford, Connecticut, might be told to bet  on State and give the 4 1/2 points, while a customer in Portland, Oregon, might be told to bet on Tech and take the 4 1/2 points.

The goal of these bunko artists is to tell half the customers to take State and half to take Tech, guaranteeing that half will win.  Then, they can sell the big package to the half that won, since a large percentage will believe the bunko artist knows something.

If the crook can get 50,000 people to call his 800 number, and thus 25,000 win, then maybe 10,000 of these winners will then proceed to buy the big package for the rest of the year and pay $129 for this service.  That comes to $1.2 million, not bad for a total con game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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September 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 3

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Wake Forest Boston College -6.6 -5.7 -9.3

 

Friday September 14
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Memphis Georgia St. 29.4 28.6 29.4

 

Saturday September 15
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tennessee UTEP 31.7 28.9 31.8
Indiana Ball St. 16.8 13.2 16.6
Maryland Temple 15.9 14.3 14.8
Florida Int’l. Massachusetts -2.0 0.7 -2.7
Toledo Miami (Fla.) -17.1 -13.1 -16.6
Army Hawaii 20.9 19.0 22.6
Penn St. Kent St. 42.6 38.1 43.4
North Carolina Central Florida -9.3 -10.2 -10.2
Charlotte Old Dominion -4.0 -6.0 -3.9
Syracuse Florida St. 0.5 -0.4 -0.3
Iowa St. Oklahoma -9.6 -10.3 -10.9
Nebraska Troy 13.5 10.4 9.3
Kansas Rutgers 3.3 3.1 3.2
Virginia Tech East Carolina 33.5 33.8 34.3
Pittsburgh Georgia Tech -6.6 -5.9 -7.0
Notre Dame Vanderbilt 22.1 17.4 20.3
Virginia Ohio U 9.9 8.8 7.1
Michigan SMU 35.4 35.3 37.8
Appalachian St. Southern Miss. 14.8 13.1 15.6
Oklahoma St. Boise St. 0.4 -1.0 -0.5
Wisconsin BYU 25.2 21.6 24.3
North Carolina St. West Virginia 4.6 4.9 4.8
Minnesota Miami (O) 20.5 17.7 19.3
Auburn LSU 13.4 11.8 15.3
Illinois South Florida -1.7 -5.1 -3.8
Northern Illinois Central Michigan 15.6 13.4 15.4
Clemson Georgia Southern 48.6 44.0 48.9
New Mexico St. New Mexico -8.7 -8.0 -8.3
UAB Tulane -5.5 -3.2 -4.9
Baylor Duke -9.8 -9.6 -9.8
Florida Colorado St. 28.6 25.0 28.6
Texas Tech Houston 3.6 0.6 1.0
Kansas St. UTSA 29.8 23.4 28.0
Arkansas North Texas 12.0 6.3 9.5
Oregon San Jose St. 41.4 40.7 43.9
Buffalo Eastern Michigan 5.3 6.4 5.9
Nevada Oregon St. 6.5 9.3 8.2
Ole Miss Alabama -23.4 -21.5 -24.4
Tulsa Arkansas St. 7.6 4.6 6.5
South Alabama Texas St. 13.7 12.6 15.4
Georgia Middle Tennessee 45.6 39.6 46.0
South Carolina Marshall 20.5 16.5 18.7
Purdue Missouri -7.4 -7.5 -10.0
Northwestern Akron 25.6 21.8 25.4
Mississippi St. Louisiana 46.8 41.6 46.4
Texas A&M UL-Monroe 28.8 27.9 28.3
Louisville Western Kentucky 23.3 19.7 21.5
Texas USC -0.4 -0.2 -0.8
TCU Ohio St. -11.5 -9.4 -13.1
Utah Washington -12.5 -11.6 -14.1
UCLA Fresno St. -6.2 -4.8 -8.3
San Diego St. Arizona St. -7.1 -5.0 -5.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Utah St. Tennessee Tech 38.6
Kentucky Murray St. 36.1
Connecticut Rhode Island 10.2
Stanford UC-Davis 36.9
Navy Lehigh 29.8
Wyoming Wofford 17.5
Bowling Green Eastern Kentucky 13.5
Colorado New Hampshire 30.3
California Idaho St. 32.1
Liberty Norfolk St. 18.5
Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman 38.5
Coastal Carolina Campbell 17.7
Cincinnati Alabama A&M 36.0
Western Michigan Delaware St. 39.7
Iowa Northern Iowa 32.2
Washington St. Eastern Wash. 23.7
UNLV Prairie-View 21.2
Arizona Southern Utah 24.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.8 131.7 135.7 133.7
2 Georgia 131.9 127.6 133.3 130.9
3 Clemson 130.8 127.7 131.5 130.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 125.9 129.3 128.0
5 Washington 126.7 124.2 129.1 126.6
6 Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6
7 Mississippi St. 123.8 120.8 124.4 123.0
8 Michigan 123.1 122.0 124.0 123.0
9 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
10 Michigan St. 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.5
11 Penn St. 121.2 118.0 121.5 120.2
12 Wisconsin 121.2 118.3 120.9 120.1
13 Stanford 120.5 118.1 121.0 119.9
14 Notre Dame 120.7 116.9 119.1 118.9
15 Boston College 118.2 115.2 118.5 117.3
16 Miami 117.3 115.3 116.9 116.5
17 Boise St. 116.4 115.8 117.2 116.5
18 Virginia Tech 116.2 115.7 116.1 116.0
19 Missouri 115.2 113.7 116.8 115.2
20 Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8
21 Duke 115.2 112.7 114.7 114.2
22 T C U 114.2 113.6 113.2 113.6
23 Iowa 114.2 111.8 113.6 113.2
24 Oklahoma St. 113.8 111.8 113.7 113.1
25 L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1
26 N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.7 112.9 113.0
27 Central Florida 112.7 112.5 112.8 112.7
28 Texas A&M 113.0 111.7 113.2 112.6
29 Northwestern 112.9 110.8 112.9 112.2
30 S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.4 111.4
31 U S C 112.1 110.3 111.5 111.3
32 West Virginia 111.7 110.9 111.1 111.2
33 Utah 111.2 109.5 112.0 110.9
34 Georgia Tech 110.6 109.6 110.2 110.2
35 Florida 110.2 108.0 110.3 109.5
36 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
37 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
38 Florida St. 109.0 108.3 108.6 108.6
39 Kentucky 108.7 107.5 108.4 108.2
40 Washington St. 108.8 107.9 107.7 108.1
41 Arizona St. 108.8 107.3 108.1 108.1
42 Texas 108.7 107.1 107.7 107.8
43 Ole Miss 107.5 107.2 108.3 107.6
44 Fresno St. 107.9 106.3 107.4 107.2
45 Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1
46 Minnesota 106.6 105.8 106.3 106.2
47 Syracuse 106.5 104.9 105.3 105.6
48 Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.3 105.3
49 Maryland 105.9 104.4 105.1 105.1
50 Kansas St. 106.0 104.3 105.0 105.1
51 Purdue 104.8 103.1 103.7 103.9
52 Houston 103.1 104.3 103.8 103.7
53 Utah St. 102.5 104.0 104.1 103.5
54 Arkansas 104.9 102.0 103.2 103.4
55 Louisville 102.9 102.7 102.3 102.6
56 Texas Tech 103.7 101.8 101.9 102.5
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Vanderbilt 101.5 102.5 101.8 102.0
59 Baylor 102.4 100.2 101.9 101.5
60 Virginia 101.5 101.8 99.9 101.1
61 Pittsburgh 101.0 100.7 100.2 100.7
62 Arizona 101.0 99.3 100.9 100.4
63 N. Carolina 100.4 99.3 99.6 99.8
64 BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4
65 Florida Atlantic 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.4
66 South Florida 98.0 101.0 98.9 99.3
67 San Diego St. 98.7 99.3 99.9 99.3
68 Nebraska 100.1 98.4 97.5 98.6
69 Toledo 97.2 99.3 97.3 97.9
70 U C L A 98.8 98.5 96.2 97.8
71 Indiana 98.0 97.1 97.5 97.5
72 Wyoming 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.3
73 N. Texas 95.9 98.8 96.7 97.1
74 Tennessee 97.2 97.5 96.5 97.1
75 Army 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.5
76 Buffalo 95.3 97.6 96.5 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 96.7 96.1 96.3
79 Marshall 94.4 97.3 95.6 95.8
80 Tulane 95.6 95.7 95.2 95.5
81 Ohio U 94.6 96.0 95.9 95.5
82 Appalachian St. 94.2 95.7 95.5 95.1
83 Kansas 96.1 95.0 94.1 95.1
84 Rutgers 95.8 94.9 93.9 94.9
85 Louisiana Tech 93.4 95.9 94.6 94.6
86 Eastern Michigan 92.4 93.7 93.1 93.1
87 Air Force 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9
88 Illinois 93.3 92.9 92.1 92.8
89 Tulsa 93.0 91.6 93.6 92.7
90 Temple 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.6
91 Cincinnati 92.0 93.6 92.0 92.5
92 Nevada 91.3 91.4 91.3 91.3
93 Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9
94 Western Michigan 89.9 91.5 90.7 90.7
95 Troy 89.5 91.0 91.1 90.5
96 U N L V 89.5 91.1 90.0 90.2
97 Middle Tennessee 89.3 91.0 90.2 90.2
98 Miami (O) 89.1 91.1 90.0 90.1
99 SMU 90.7 89.7 89.2 89.9
100 Massachusetts 88.2 90.0 89.6 89.3
101 Arkansas St. 87.9 89.5 89.6 89.0
102 U A B 87.6 90.0 87.8 88.5
103 UL-Monroe 87.1 86.7 87.9 87.3
104 New Mexico 86.4 88.1 86.3 86.9
105 Oregon St. 87.8 85.2 86.1 86.4
106 Georgia Southern 85.3 86.7 85.6 85.9
107 East Carolina 85.7 84.9 84.8 85.1
108 Colo. State 84.6 85.9 84.7 85.1
109 Florida Int’l. 83.2 87.7 83.8 84.9
110 Central Michigan 83.5 86.3 83.7 84.5
111 Ball St. 83.2 85.9 82.9 84.0
112 Bowling Green 83.7 83.7 83.9 83.8
113 Southern Miss. 82.3 85.5 82.8 83.6
114 W. Kentucky 81.6 85.0 82.7 83.1
115 Old Dominion 81.0 85.2 81.0 82.4
116 South Alabama 81.3 83.4 82.3 82.3
117 Kent St. 81.6 82.9 81.0 81.8
118 U T S A 79.2 83.9 80.0 81.1
119 Louisiana 79.5 81.7 80.5 80.6
120 Liberty 81.0 79.3 81.2 80.5
121 Hawaii 79.9 82.2 78.4 80.2
122 Coastal Carolina 78.5 81.5 79.1 79.7
123 Georgia St. 77.9 80.7 78.9 79.2
124 Connecticut 78.5 78.7 77.2 78.1
125 N. Mexico St. 75.7 78.1 76.0 76.6
126 San Jose St. 76.1 76.9 74.3 75.8
127 Charlotte 74.5 76.8 74.6 75.3
128 Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.6 67.8 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 112.7 112.5 112.8 112.7 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.0 101.0 98.9 99.3 0-0 2-0
Temple 92.5 92.6 92.8 92.6 0-0 0-2
Cincinnati 92.0 93.6 92.0 92.5 0-0 2-0
East Carolina 85.7 84.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.5 78.7 77.2 78.1 0-1 0-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 104.2 106.3 105.3 105.3 0-1 1-1
Houston 103.1 104.3 103.8 103.7 0-0 2-0
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 1-1
Tulane 95.6 95.7 95.2 95.5 0-0 1-1
Tulsa 93.0 91.6 93.6 92.7 0-0 1-1
SMU 90.7 89.7 89.2 89.9 0-0 0-2
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.8 127.7 131.5 130.0 0-0 2-0
Boston College 118.2 115.2 118.5 117.3 0-0 2-0
N. Carolina St. 113.3 112.7 112.9 113.0 0-0 2-0
Florida St. 109.0 108.3 108.6 108.6 0-1 1-1
Wake Forest 108.7 106.5 106.2 107.1 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 106.5 104.9 105.3 105.6 0-0 2-0
Louisville 102.9 102.7 102.3 102.6 0-0 1-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.3 115.3 116.9 116.5 0-0 1-1
Virginia Tech 116.2 115.7 116.1 116.0 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.2 112.7 114.7 114.2 0-0 2-0
Georgia Tech 110.6 109.6 110.2 110.2 0-0 1-1
Virginia 101.5 101.8 99.9 101.1 0-0 1-1
Pittsburgh 101.0 100.7 100.2 100.7 0-0 1-1
N. Carolina 100.4 99.3 99.6 99.8 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.8 109.5 110.2 110.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 0-0 2-0
T C U 114.2 113.6 113.2 113.6 0-0 2-0
Oklahoma St. 113.8 111.8 113.7 113.1 0-0 2-0
West Virginia 111.7 110.9 111.1 111.2 0-0 2-0
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-0 0-1
Texas 108.7 107.1 107.7 107.8 0-0 1-1
Kansas St. 106.0 104.3 105.0 105.1 0-0 1-1
Texas Tech 103.7 101.8 101.9 102.5 0-0 1-1
Baylor 102.4 100.2 101.9 101.5 0-0 2-0
Kansas 96.1 95.0 94.1 95.1 0-0 1-1
Big 12 Averages 108.9 107.4 108.1 108.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 125.9 129.3 128.0 1-0 2-0
Michigan 123.1 122.0 124.0 123.0 0-0 1-1
Michigan St. 122.3 120.0 122.0 121.5 0-0 1-1
Penn St. 121.2 118.0 121.5 120.2 0-0 2-0
Maryland 105.9 104.4 105.1 105.1 0-0 2-0
Indiana 98.0 97.1 97.5 97.5 0-0 2-0
Rutgers 95.8 94.9 93.9 94.9 0-1 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 121.2 118.3 120.9 120.1 0-0 2-0
Iowa 114.2 111.8 113.6 113.2 0-0 2-0
Northwestern 112.9 110.8 112.9 112.2 1-0 1-1
Minnesota 106.6 105.8 106.3 106.2 0-0 2-0
Purdue 104.8 103.1 103.7 103.9 0-1 0-2
Nebraska 100.1 98.4 97.5 98.6 0-0 0-1
Illinois 93.3 92.9 92.1 92.8 0-0 2-0
Big Ten Averages 110.6 108.8 110.0 109.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 99.0 99.5 99.7 99.4 0-0 1-1
Marshall 94.4 97.3 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.3 91.0 90.2 90.2 0-0 1-1
Florida Int’l. 83.2 87.7 83.8 84.9 1-0 1-1
W. Kentucky 81.6 85.0 82.7 83.1 0-0 0-2
Old Dominion 81.0 85.2 81.0 82.4 0-1 0-2
Charlotte 74.5 76.8 74.6 75.3 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 95.9 98.8 96.7 97.1 0-0 2-0
Louisiana Tech 93.4 95.9 94.6 94.6 0-0 2-0
U A B 87.6 90.0 87.8 88.5 0-0 1-1
Southern Miss. 82.3 85.5 82.8 83.6 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.2 83.9 80.0 81.1 0-0 0-2
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.5 71.6 67.8 69.3 0-0 0-2
CUSA Averages 84.3 87.3 84.8 85.4
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 120.7 116.9 119.1 118.9 x 2-0
BYU 99.0 99.8 99.6 99.4 x 1-1
Army 96.3 96.7 96.5 96.5 x 1-1
Massachusetts 88.2 90.0 89.6 89.3 x 1-2
Liberty 81.0 79.3 81.2 80.5 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 75.7 78.1 76.0 76.6 x 0-3
Ind. Averages 93.5 93.5 93.7 93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.3 97.6 96.5 96.5 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 94.6 96.0 95.9 95.5 0-0 1-0
Akron 90.3 91.9 90.5 90.9 0-0 1-0
Miami (O) 89.1 91.1 90.0 90.1 0-0 0-2
Bowling Green 83.7 83.7 83.9 83.8 0-0 0-2
Kent St. 81.6 82.9 81.0 81.8 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.2 99.3 97.3 97.9 0-0 1-0
Northern Illinois 96.1 96.7 96.1 96.3 0-0 0-2
Eastern Michigan 92.4 93.7 93.1 93.1 0-0 2-0
Western Michigan 89.9 91.5 90.7 90.7 0-0 0-2
Central Michigan 83.5 86.3 83.7 84.5 0-0 0-2
Ball St. 83.2 85.9 82.9 84.0 0-0 1-1
MAC Averages 89.8 91.4 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 116.4 115.8 117.2 116.5 0-0 2-0
Utah St. 102.5 104.0 104.1 103.5 0-0 1-1
Wyoming 97.4 97.3 97.2 97.3 0-0 1-2
Air Force 93.0 93.1 92.5 92.9 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.4 88.1 86.3 86.9 0-0 1-1
Colo. State 84.6 85.9 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 107.9 106.3 107.4 107.2 0-0 1-1
San Diego St. 98.7 99.3 99.9 99.3 0-0 1-1
Nevada 91.3 91.4 91.3 91.3 0-0 1-1
U N L V 89.5 91.1 90.0 90.2 0-0 1-1
Hawaii 79.9 82.2 78.4 80.2 1-0 3-0
San Jose St. 76.1 76.9 74.3 75.8 0-0 0-2
MWC Averages 93.6 94.3 93.6 93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.7 124.2 129.1 126.6 0-0 1-1
Stanford 120.5 118.1 121.0 119.9 1-0 2-0
Oregon 114.5 114.6 115.2 114.8 0-0 2-0
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 2-0
Washington St. 108.8 107.9 107.7 108.1 0-0 2-0
Oregon St. 87.8 85.2 86.1 86.4 0-0 1-1
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
U S C 112.1 110.3 111.5 111.3 0-1 1-1
Utah 111.2 109.5 112.0 110.9 0-0 2-0
Arizona St. 108.8 107.3 108.1 108.1 0-0 2-0
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 2-0
Arizona 101.0 99.3 100.9 100.4 0-0 0-2
U C L A 98.8 98.5 96.2 97.8 0-0 0-2
Pac-12 Averages 108.4 107.0 108.3 107.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 127.6 133.3 130.9 1-0 2-0
Missouri 115.2 113.7 116.8 115.2 0-0 2-0
S. Carolina 112.0 110.8 111.4 111.4 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.2 108.0 110.3 109.5 0-1 1-1
Kentucky 108.7 107.5 108.4 108.2 1-0 2-0
Vanderbilt 101.5 102.5 101.8 102.0 0-0 2-0
Tennessee 97.2 97.5 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 133.8 131.7 135.7 133.7 0-0 2-0
Auburn 123.2 121.8 125.8 123.6 0-0 2-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 120.8 124.4 123.0 0-0 2-0
L S U 112.8 112.9 113.5 113.1 0-0 2-0
Texas A&M 113.0 111.7 113.2 112.6 0-0 1-1
Ole Miss 107.5 107.2 108.3 107.6 0-0 2-0
Arkansas 104.9 102.0 103.2 103.4 0-0 1-1
SEC Averages 114.0 112.5 114.5 113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.2 95.7 95.5 95.1 0-0 1-1
Troy 89.5 91.0 91.1 90.5 0-0 1-1
Georgia Southern 85.3 86.7 85.6 85.9 0-0 2-0
Coastal Carolina 78.5 81.5 79.1 79.7 0-0 1-1
Georgia St. 77.9 80.7 78.9 79.2 0-0 1-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.9 89.5 89.6 89.0 0-0 1-1
UL-Monroe 87.1 86.7 87.9 87.3 0-0 2-0
South Alabama 81.3 83.4 82.3 82.3 0-0 0-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.7 80.5 80.6 0-0 1-0
Texas State 70.7 73.8 69.9 71.5 0-0 1-1
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.1 84.0 84.1

 

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.0 112.5 114.5 113.7
2 ACC 110.8 109.5 110.2 110.2
3 BTEN 110.6 108.8 110.0 109.8
4 B12 108.9 107.4 108.1 108.1
5 P-12 108.4 107.0 108.3 107.9
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3
7 MWC 93.6 94.3 93.6 93.8
8 IND 93.5 93.5 93.7 93.5
9 MAC 89.8 91.4 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 84.3 87.3 84.8 85.4
11 SUN 83.2 85.1 84.0 84.1

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Toledo Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Tulsa Western Michigan
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan UNLV
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Virginia]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [California]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Louisiana
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Int’l. Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [BYU] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Louisville Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 [Army] Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Georgia Tech [UAB]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC [Utah] Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC North Carolina St. Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Washington
Belk ACC SEC Boston College South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia Virginia Tech
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Syracuse
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC [Georgia Southern] Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan USC
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Boise St. TCU
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Stanford
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Auburn
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Ohio St.
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
Championship  Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 17, 2018

2018 Big Ten Conference Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.
Our Power 5 Conference preseason ratings and won-loss predictions were figured before knowing the outcome of recent suspensions to Coaches Urban Meyer and D.J. Durkin at Ohio State and Maryland. Because our ratings set 100.0 as average, and the mean of all 130 teams must be 100.0, taking points away from Ohio State and Maryland require redistributing points to the other 128 teams. Expect these ratings to change prior to August 25.

Even before Ohio State had to put Meyer on paid leave, our summer PiRate Ratings had another team rated a little bit ahead of the Buckeyes. Michigan State won 10 games last year with wins over Michigan and Penn State. The Spartans were not as bad as they looked in the blowout loss in Columbus, and with practically the entire team returning plus the additions of some excellent talent that redshirted or saw minimal action, the Spartans begin the season ranked slightly higher than OSU.
Coach Mark Dantonio’s offense was not up to par last year, as Sparty averaged just 25 points and less than 350 yards per game. Things will be different this year, as returns 10 starters and a majority of the 2nd 11. Quarterback Brian Lewerke is not Khalil Tate, but the junior signal caller is primed to improve greatly on his passing numbers and equal or top his running numbers. Lewerke is known for breaking long runs in an unconventional manner. While he can break free on zone read plays, he has been known to make a simple quarterback sneak a long-gainer, and he can scramble as well as any contemporary.
Running back L.J. Scott can do a lot of damage between the tackles and then exploding outside once he gets through the line. He is powerful and has speed, and he excels at every part of the game, as a power runner with quick bursts to stretch the play wide; as a pass receiver (Ohio State got burned by a screen pass play to him); and as an incredible pass-protecting blocker).
The trio of Felton Davis, Cody White, and Darrell Stewart won’t confuse fans for the receivers at Oklahoma, but these guys are more than capable of making a defense that is expecting run pay dearly. Davis gives Lewerke the jump ball receiver in the end zone with his size and leaping ability.
An experience line with talent throughout should allow MSU to increase its offensive production to more than 30 points and 400 yards per game this year. Combine that with a highly-rated defense, and the Spartans can contend for a Playoff bid.
The strength of the defense is in the secondary, where free safety David Dowell intercepted 5 passes, knocked away 4 more, and recovered 2 fumbles. Cornerback Josiah Scott is a potential All Big Ten player as well.

Michigan State is solid at linebacker with Joe Bachie and Andrew Dowell returning, the team’s top two 2017 tacklers. Bachie intercepted three passes. If the Spartans are to reach the pinnacle, their pass rush will have to make a jump forward. End Kenny Willekes is capable of dumping the quarterback two or three times a game, but somebody else will need to step forward to prevent him from being double-teamed.

Michigan State might win an extra game with its special teams. Kicker Matt Coghlin was a perfect 38-38 on PATs and 15 of 19 on field goals. Punter Jake Hartbarger averaged 42 yards per punt with just 12 of his 69 punts returned for a measley 2.3 yards per return.

Ohio State has had to replace a head coach just prior to the start of a season in the recent past. In 2011, coming off a 12-1 season, Jim Tressel was dismissed, with Luke Fickell taking over as the interim. Ohio State fell to 6-7 and 3-5 in the Big Ten with the best talent in the conference not jelling. Urban Meyer became coach the next season and ran the table.

No matter who wears the headsets on the sideline on September 1st when the Buckeyes welcome a rebuilding Oregon State team to the Giant Horseshoe, Ohio State will look like Ohio State. The 2011 team commenced its season with a 42-0 win over Akron. It will be September 15, before the coaching issue might matter, when Ohio State plays TCU at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Ohio State rarely must rebuild when they lose highly-talented players every year, and this year is no different. Quarterback J.T. Barrett passed for 35 touchdowns and ran for a dozen more in his final year in Columbus. Normally, replacing a star talent like Barrett would lead to a major drop in offensive production, but not at this football factory. Ohio State’s probable third string quarterback until the number two guy transferred was a former high school phenom who out-dueled Josh Rosen, never lost a game in his high school career, and has been compared to Doug Flutie. Tate Martell will have to wait his turn, while Dwayne Haskins runs the offense. Haskins has the better arm and can force defenses to keep an extra man in the passing zones, while Martell is the scrambler type, the type that wouldn’t lose a game of tag, but with the need to work on his passing mechanics a little more.
The Buckeyes are loaded at running back with the return of J. K. Dobbins (1,403 yards 7.2 avg) and Mike Weber (626 yards 6.2 avg 10 TDs). Weber is a little more powerful, but Dobbins is the better pass-catching threat.

As good as the running back unit is, the receiver unit is better, again not as good as Oklahoma, but as good as any other Big Ten foe. Parris Campbell is the current Percy Harvin for this offense. The speedy hybrid receiver is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, be it on the speed sweep or via the pass (or as a kick returner). When you can catch a pass at the line of scrimmage and take it all the way, defenses must tell their safeties to retreat, and that opens the middle for bigger receivers as well as gives running backs more room to break free.

The Buckeye offensive line is the best in the East Division and second best in the league. Their version of Michael Jordan is a tall and strong guard who opens holes inside and stops enemy pass rushers. Tackle Isaiah Prince makes the left side of the Ohio State line mighty tough. The line should allow the Buckeyes to top 40 points and 500 yards again this year, unless there is a mini-train wreck with Meyer being dismissed.

Ohio State begins the season just behind Michigan State because their defense lost a lot of talented players, including the top three tacklers, two of 2017’s top pass rushing trio, and players responsible for 2/3 of the interceptions. One position that will be strong is at end, where Nick Bosa returns following a year where he finished third in the league with 16 tackles for loss and tied for first with 9 sacks. Robert Landers assumes the vacant end position.

Tuf Borland anchors the second line of defense, but this is one area of concern in 2018. Ohio State is thin at linebacker, and it wouldn’t surprise us if they eventually transition to more of a 4-2-5 team if they can uncover enough quality in their backfield. Ohio State has some re-tooling to do in the back line of defense, where cornerback Damon Arnette and safety Jordan Fuller need some help.

If Meyer is not able to coach this team, Ohio State will be at least a touchdown to 10 points weaker in 2018. Still, the Buckeyes would be a contender for the East Division crown, but not the top or even second choice to do so.

This is a pivotal year for Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. The former NFC Champion coach with the 49ers has not worked the same magic at his alma mater that he was able to do at Stanford. This year gives him his best chance, and if the Wolverines don’t look as powerful as they did during the Bo Schembechler days, the fans in Ann Arbor may demand change.
The Maize and Blue have the talent to compete and even contend for a playoff bid this year, and if Harbaugh can get his new quarterback to play like he did against Auburn and Texas A&M while leading the Ole Miss offense, the pieces are in place for the Champions of the West to make a run at the championship of the Big Ten East.
Shea Patterson took his redshirt off late in the 2016 season at Ole Miss and looked like the next Archie Manning with his exceptional running ability and passing arm. Seven games into his sophomore season, Patterson’s season ended with a knee injury against LSU. Still, in just 6 1/2 games with the Rebels, his 2,259 passing yards and 17 touchdowns topped the entire Michigan offense in 13 games by more than 300 yards!

Michigan still has issues in the offensive line, where three starters return but only guard Ben Bredeson being all-conference quality. Patterson may be on the run too many times this year if the blocking cannot improve, and the ground game may stall like it did last year against teams like Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and South Carolina, the five teams that beat them.

If the line blocks just a tad bit better than average, the Michigan ground game will succeed. Patterson can take some of the defensive keying off Karan Higdon and Chris Evans, which should help the two running backs top their combined rushing for 1,679 yards and 17 touchdowns. Give Higdon a little room, and he can explode for 7-10 yards quickly. Evans is better equipped to earn the tough yards when they are needed.
Michigan has a young but somewhat experienced group of receivers. Last year’s starters did not shine, and this year’s replacements could easily make UM fans forget the 2017 starters. The best receivers may be tight ends Sean McKeon and Zach Gentry, and Michigan could succeed with the double tight end alignment this year. Patterson went to his tight ends in Oxford last year for some nice gains and conversions.

Make no mistake about it; Michigan’s bread and butter is their defense, and as good as the Wolverines were at stopping enemy offenses last year, 2018 could be very special. UM finished tops in the nation in passing yards allowed and third in total yards. Their secondary is even better this year, and we believe the Wolverines can lower last year’s points allowed per game from 18.8 to 15, especially if the offense sustains more drives.
In 19 years out of 20, a secondary this talented would be the tops in the land. This is that 20th year, when Washington has one of the best secondaries of all time. Michigan ranks just behind with the top two cornerbacks in the league. Lavert Hill and David Long may not put up the jazziest of numbers, but quarterbacks tend to throw the ball elsewhere. Think of it like issuing an intentional walk to a 50-homer guy in baseball.

The middle trio of this defense features two All Big Ten players in Khaleke Hudson and Devin Bush. Both are complete players that can stop the run, dump the quarterback, and defend against the pass. Bush might contend for the Butkus Award this year.

The defensive line is the weakest unit on this team, but it is still a big asset that is almost as strong as their rivals’ to the South’s d-line. End Rashan Gary should make first team all-conference if he stays healthy. Opposite side end Chase Vinovich could have been playing for pay this year, but he chose to return to Ann Arbor, and with another great year, his draft stock should go up.

Michigan begins the season playing what could be a playoff qualifier. The Wolverines travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame in the top game of the opening week of football. The winner of that game should carry the momentum forward to a 7-0 start through mid-October. Michigan has some tough games in the second half, having to face Sparty in East Lansing and Ohio State at the Giant Horseshoe plus host Wisconsin and Penn State. This team has the talent to go 11-1 or 10-2, but with just a little less production, UM could find itself back at 5-4 in the league, which would be dangerous for Harbaugh’s chances to return in 2019.

Penn State coach James Franklin worked his magic at Vanderbilt, doing the unthinkable by winning nine games in back-to-back seasons, both years finishing in the top 25, and by beating Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in the same season. So, it should come as no surprise that he would do wonders in Happy Valley, as the Nittany Lions just enjoyed their first back-to-back 11-win seasons since Joe Paterno was still walking the sidelines.

Coming off a Big Ten championship in 2016, the Nittany Lions may have been a little better last year, even though they came up a game short in the East Division standings. The two losses were by a combined four points, so the Nittany Lions were oh so close from running the table and making it to the Playoffs.

We expect Penn State to take a slight backward turn this year, because their defense is almost entirely new this year. Only one two starters return on this side of the ball, and none of them played in the secondary last year. Amani Oruwariye actually made the All Big Ten Second team last year as a key reserve, so the defensive backfield is not in as bad a shape as it appears to be.

Linebacker U must have talent in the middle of their defense, and this year is no different. Koa Farmer, a converted safety and Cameron Brown give the defense a pair of talented stoppers.

The front four has talent as well, led by end Shareef Miller. In a league with multiple star defensive ends, Miller takes a back seat to nobody. He led Penn State with 11 1/2 tackles for loss and 5 1/2 sacks.

The Penn State defense will not be as stingy as last year, when they finished 6th nationally in scoring defense, but the decline will not be severe. Expect Penn State to give up about 21 to 23 points per game this year.

The offense returns its star quarterback, but it loses its heart, as superstar running back Saquon Barkley has taken his 1,271 rushing yards, 632 receiving yards, the nation’s best kick returning, and his 23 total touchdowns to the New York Giants. Miles Sanders might rush for 1,000 yards replacing Barkley, but he won’t be the all-purpose player that comes around to a school about as often as Halley’s Comet.

Trace McSorley needs to have an incredible finish to his career to move up the ranks in a very heavily talented field of draft-eligible quarterbacks. He’d probably be an undrafted free agent if this were next May. He’s a tad undersized and lacks the arm strength to contend with players like Patterson at Michigan, but for Penn State’s offense, he is more than adequate, bordering on stardom.

McSorley will need wideout Juwan Johnson to have a breakout year, as he is the only one of three 50+ catch receivers left on the roster. Johnson provides a big target and has a nice combination of speed and agility to go with excellent hands. If DeAndre Thompkins can be the 1A receiver and play like he did as a secondary talent last year, then the Penn State passing game should be in good shape.

The best news on this side of the ball is that the offensive line might be the most improved of any in the league. Five players with significant starting experience plus three others that will earn extensive playing time should give McSorley the time he needs to locate open receivers and open some holes for the running game.

Maryland is a team with a lot of dissension at the present time. Coach Durkin has the support of his players, and if he is fired, we expect the this program to be affected more than Ohio State’s losing Meyer would be. This team was on the cusp of contending for bowl eligibility, but it would not surprise us if the Terrapins fell to the bottom of the division and even go 0-9 if the players don’t rally around interim head coach Matt Canada, who just arrived from LSU.

The Terp offense will move on the ground more than through the air this year after being exactly equal in 2017 with 162 yards rushing and 162 yards passing per game. The running back tandem of Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison should team up for about 1,800 yards with the improved blocking expected from an experience offensive line that welcomes back the top five players from last year.

Maryland leads the nation in only one quarterback statistic, and unfortunately, that is number of quarterbacks used. The recent history has been quite negative as to the incredible number of QBs in need of disability insurance. Last year was more of the same in College Park, as the first two were done for the year in Mid-September. To complicate matters further, Maryland will switch from a shotgun alignment to an under-center alignment this year. Redshirt Freshman Kasim Hill and sophomore Tyrell Pigrome have very limited experience, but one of the two will start against Texas on September 1.

Maryland basically threw the ball to two players last year, and one returns in 2018. Taivon Jacobs turned 47 catches into 553 yards and 5 TDs last year. Jacobs will not be able to make up for the receptions and yards lost when D. J. Moore became a first round pick in the NFL Draft.

Maryland needs to re-tool a little on the defensive side, but there are some athletes here that can shine. The Terps use the 3-3-5 defense, and the secondary will be the strongest unit on the team. Safety Darnell Savage intercepted three passes last year and returned one for a touchdown. He led UM with 8 passed defended. Nickel back Antoine Brooks finished second on the team with 77 tackles last year, and he proved to be an excellent run defender, finishing with a team-leading 9 1/2 tackles for loss.

Outside linebacker Isaiah Davis is the lone returning starter at linebacker. The Terps need Buck linebacker Jesse Aniebonam to emerge as a force coming back from injury after starring there in 2016, when he made 9 QB sacks.

With Durkin as coach, we were prepared to give Maryland a 50-50 shot at bowl eligibility this year and a 90% chance of getting five wins. If Durkin is dismissed, this team could fall to 2-10, and there will be a long coaching search trying to find somebody to right the ship.

Rutgers found a way to win four games last year with an offense that averaged just 18 points and 263 yards per game. The Scarlet Knights scored just 71 points in their eight losses. Coach Chris Ash is a defensive specialist, having been the defensive coordinator at Ohio State and Arkansas before coming to RU. Quietly, he doubled the win total between his first and second year, and he returns more experience this year than either of his first two seasons in New Brunswick.

The offense should experience some improvement this year, but don’t expect too much. Quarterback Giovanni Rescigno shared the job last year with less than stellar results, so there is only one way to go from 47% completions and 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Tight end Jerome Washington returns after leading RU with just 28 receptions and 282 yards. Former Boston College running back Jonathan Hillman and talented sophomore Raheem Blackshear will get the brunt of the rushing attempts. Blackshear has the ability to break a long gain via the run or the pass, but his diminutive size will limit the amount of touches he can get and stay healthy. The offensive line is anything but an asset, as the Scarlet Knights frequently allowed pass rushers to get into the backfield quickly.

The RU defense will most likely carry the team on its shoulders again this season. This unit limited Purdue to 12 points, but it is not one of the league’s premier stop troops. Eight starters return from 2017, so Rutgers’ numbers on this side of the ball could improve a little after finishing 11th against the run and 10th against the pass.

Linebackers Deonte Roberts and Trevor Morris finished one-two in tackles last year, and they could both top 100 tackles this year. There are multiple players with experience returning to the secondary, but none appear to be ready to challenge for all conference honors. The pass rush was close to nonexistent last year, and the top pass rusher used up his eligibility.

Indiana was on the verge of turning the program around into an annual bowl-contender until they decided it was time for Kevin Wilson to go. Wilson ended up at Ohio State as an assistant, while Tom Allen took over in Bloomington. After a 5-7 finish last year, it could be difficult to contend fro a 6-win season and bowl bid this season.

The defense gave Indiana a chance to compete in several games last year, and this year, a major rebuilding task will send the defensive averages up by about 7-10 points per game. The offense will not be that much better if any better at all, so the Hoosiers may have to fight to stay out of the basement if Maryland doesn’t implode.

The old saying goes that if you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks. What does it say when you have three? Allen was not all that pleased with the depth chart here, and late in Spring, he signed former Arizona Wildcat starter Brandon Dawkins to join the competition between Sophomore Peyton Ramsey and true freshman Michael Penix. Dawkins performed admirably under center in Tucson, but he was not going to see a lot of time with Khalil Tate on the roster. He is an excellent dual-threat player and should eventually become the starter.

The Hoosiers have a decent but not flashy running back duo that should help IU top the 130 rushing yards per game from last season. Morgan Ellison and Cole Gest should both get 7-12 attempts per game.

Two of the three starters returning on defense play in the secondary. Cornerback Andre Brown is not one of the top 10 at his position in the Big Ten. Jonathan Crawford is a decent but not exceptional strong safety. The Hoosiers have numerous inexperienced players with promising talent, but this secondary is vulnerable.

At least the secondary has some experience. The front seven is void of experienced starters. There are a couple of players in the trenches that look like Big Ten athletes. Tackle Jacob Robinson should make some big plays from the inside, but IU is weak everywhere else up front.

They were oh so close last year, but came up a bit short. Wisconsin ran the table in the regular season beating Northwestern by two games, while no other team in the West Division finished above .500 in league play. The Badgers are still the favorite to repeat as division champions, but they won’t be as good this year as they were in 2017. The Badger offense will need to be the best defense this year, because UW lost a considerable amount of talent on the other side of the ball from the league’s top defense.

The Badgers are noted for having excellent offensive linemen, tight ends, and powerful running backs. Expect more of the same in 2018, as the nation’s best offensive line is loaded with talent and experience. There is such incredible depth here that some of the backups could start for other Top 25 teams! Three of the players could make All-American! Tackle Michael Deiter could be the first tackle picked in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he is the second best on the team, and he is actually better utilized at guard. Dave Edwards is a beast. He is strong, quick, and agile, having been an option quarterback in high school.

Wisconsin lost a fine tight end in Troy Fumagalli (46 catches 547 yards), but when they still have two fine players nominated to the John Mackey Award Watch List. Zander Neuville and Kyle Penniston can block like guards but can sneak into the secondary and turn a short pass into a nice gain.

Fumagalli was the leading pass receiver, but the three two wideout receivers are back this year. Quintez Cephus, A.J. Taylor, and Danny Davis combined for just 87 pass receptions, but the trio averaged 16 yards per reception with 16 touchdowns.

Alex Hornibrook returns as the starting quarterback, and if he moves forward as much this season as he did last season, he could challenge McSorley and Lewerke for first team all-conference honors. His top job though will be handing the ball off to Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 1,977 yards as a freshman.

If the Badgers stumble this year, it will be because their defense allows opponents to score points faster than the offense can respond. After giving up less than 14 points per game, less than 100 rushing yards, and just 262 total yards per game. The Badgers are still strong at linebacker with last year’s top two tacklers returning. T.J. Edwards and Ryan Connelly combined for 169 tackles with 22 for lost yardage; they picked up 5 passes, with Edwards taking one to the house.

Nose Tackle Olive Sagapolu can stop the two A-gaps without doing much of anything. At 346 pounds, he is tough to move out of the way and can force running attacks to direct plays to the next gap over. The Badgers are totally inexperienced at the end positions, and this will be a concern at the start of the season.

In the defensive backfield, safety D’Cota Dixon is the lone returning starter, and while he is excellent against the run, he is not a pass defense star.

Wisconsin will have time to get their new defensive players some playing time against three beatable opponents. The September 22nd game at Iowa could go a long way in determining the West Division champion.

Northwestern returns enough talent on both sides of the ball to give Wisconsin and Iowa fierce competition for the West Division flag. The University spent $260 million building the finest indoor facility in the nation, right on Lake Michigan, and the Wildcats are going to ramp up recruiting and possibly become the football equivalent of Duke Basketball, where the finest combination of athletic and academic successes end up in Evanston. This is down the road; for now, Coach Pat Fitzgerald tries to improve on a 10-3 season that included a narrow win over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.

Clayton Thorson may not be an all-conference selection, but the senior quarterback has a good shot to hear his name announced in the 2019 NFL Draft. Thorson’s 2017 season was a bit off the 2016 season, but with his size and strength, NFL teams will have an interest in him. He has a a pair of experienced wide receivers returning, and Ben Skowronek and Flynn Nagel were the leading receivers last year.

Thorson relied on a lot of passes to his backs, and he will miss Justin Jackson’s 44 receptions and 1,311 rushing yards. Jeremy Larkin actually had better averages than Jackson in limited touches, as he has breakaway speed when he gets a little open space. The offensive line should be strong on the right side, but the left side could pose problems against some tough defensive stars.

Defensively, the Wildcats are stronger in the front seven and lacking in experience in their back line. Linebackers Paddy Fisher and Nate Hall combined to make 192 tackles with 26 for loss. Hall blitzed and sacked the QB five times. Up front, Samdup Miller and Joe Gaziano teamed for 14 1/2 sacks and 21 1/2 total tackles for loss. The secondary has just one returning starter. Montre Hartage intercepted a couple of passes, but this unit is lacking in stars.
Usually, Big Ten teams begin the season with a winnable game against a Group of 5 opponent. This year, Northwestern begins the season on the road in a pivotal conference game against Purdue. Then, in November, when Big Ten teams rarely play out of conference, the Wildcats host Notre Dame. The schedule is not favorable for a run at a division flag.

On the other hand, Iowa has a very favorable schedule to make a run at the division flag, even if like Wisconsin, they have a lot of replacing to do on the defensive side. Coach Kirk Ferentz enters his 20th season in Iowa City, and as a gift, the Hawkeyes are the only team in the Big Ten that does not play Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State.

On the offensive side, they Hawkeyes are led by their best player, quarterback Nate Stanley. Stanley came from out of almost nowhere to take over at QB last year and surprised the nation with 26 touchdown passes and 2.432 passing yards. Included in those stats were 5 TD pass games against Iowa State and Ohio State.

Like many teams in this league, Iowa uses a lot of two tight end sets, and the Hawkeyes return both starters this year. Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson teamed up to grab 54 passes good for 814 yards and 14 touchdowns. They will team up with top wideout Nick Easley to make Iowa’s passing game strong. The running game may be a work in progress with last year’s two top backs no longer around. Toren Young and Ivory Kelly-Martin saw limited action in 2017 and looked capable of becoming contributors this year, but the Iowa running game may be down a little this year.

The defensive liability that will hurt the Hawkeyes this year is the middle of the defense. All of last year’s top linebackers are gone, and there isn’t much experience returning. Iowa will be vulnerable early against the short passing game and play-action passes until the new linebackers get enough reps to understand how to play at full speed. This is not the case up front, where the defensive line should be rather strong this year. Ends Anthony Nelson and Parker Hesse should get to the enemy quarterback a fair amount of times and stop running backs on stretch plays often enough to encourage offenses to try something else.

The secondary may have four new starters this year, even though there is returning starting experience. The Hawkeyes will miss star defensive back Joshua Jackson and his eight interceptions.

Who saw this coming last year? Purdue was picked to maybe contend for fifth place in the division and hopefully win four or five games. Under new coach Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers looked more like the Drew Brees team that played at Ross-Ade Stadium 20 years ago than recent Purdue squads. Purdue Missouri, Minnesota, and Iowa in the regular season, and then secured a winning season by topping Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl.
It is more of the same for the Boilermakers offensively this year, but like most of the division, they must rebuild on the other side of the ball. The offense improved only marginally in scoring average in Brohm’s first season in West Lafayette, but the defense shaved 18 points off the scoring average allowed.

A tight race for the starting quarterback job is still too close to call. Last year, Elijah Sindelar got a majority of the snaps, but he did so only because David Blough was out for the year with an injury. Sindelar played the last few weeks on a torn ACL, but both should be ready to begin the year. It could easily continue to be undecided into the season, as both could play.

The Boilermakers need true freshman Rondale Moore to live up to his credentials as soon as possible, because there isn’t a go-to guy on the roster. Most of the returning receivers are capable second and third options, but only if there is a play-making first option.

The running game should be slightly improved, even though last year’s starter has graduated. Markell Jones and Tario Fuller will carry the ball behind an experienced line featuring Rimington Award contender Kirk Barron at center.

Purdue’s run defense was one of the better groups in the nation last year, but most of the stars that made it so powerful won’t be on the sidelines this year. One of those who will be back is middle linebacker Markus Bailey, who finished second on the team in tackles and first in sacks. He played on the strongside last year, but he will return to the middle in 2018.

The front four has questions, especially at end, while there are concerns at the cornerback spots as well. Safeties Jacob Thieneman and Navon Mosley return as starters, but they were more of supporting role players than stars.

Purdue has two strong non-conference opponents on their schedule in Missouri and Boston College, and most of the winnable conference games are on the road this year. If Brohm can take the Boilermakers back to a bowl this year, it may be an even better coaching job than last year. It also may get him a lot of offers to coach at more successful programs.

Minnesota used to be as big a power in college football as Ohio State is today. That was nearly 60 years ago, but this school still has the resources to return to greatness. Second year coach P. J. Fleck knows how to recruit and coach, as he made Western Michigan a New Year’s Bowl participant. Fleck is a motivational coach in the mold of James Franklin, but don’t underestimate his ability to get the most out of the talent on hand. The Golden Gophers fell one victory short of qualifying for a bowl last year, but with a majority of his starters returning on both sides of the ball, Fleck should play game number 13 in December.

Minnesota couldn’t move the ball or score points well enough to find that elusive sixth win. Narrow losses to Maryland, Michigan State, and Iowa could have been wins with just a little more offense. Quarterback play was a major liability in 2017, so the fact that Minnesota will have a new signal caller in 2018 is not a bad thing. It was thought that either redshirt freshman Tanner Morhan or juco transfer Vic Viramontes will be under center when the Gophers take on New Mexico State in week one. However, in recent days it appears that true freshman walk-on Zack Annexstad might be the starter.

Annexstad is not your typical walk-on. He turned down scholarship offers at multiple FBS schools to pay to attend his father’s alma mater. He has the stronger arm and has the skills to lead this team to at least seven more points per game than last year.
UM is set at running back, where Rodney Smith narrowly missed topping 1,000 yards and could easily match or top his fine sophomore campaign, where he rushed for 1,158 yards. It’s at receiver where the Gophers are not yet quite up to standards of the top teams in the league. Tyler Johnson is a fine receiver, capable of turning a short pass into a long gain, but he cannot do it all himself. Freshmen and untested sophomores will man the other positions. The Gophers plan to create shade for the fans in the stadium, and they signed two of the largest offensive linemen in the game. Tackle Daniel Faalele tips the scale at 400 pounds on a 6 foot 9 inch frame. Curtis Dunlap is only 6-5 and 370. Both should add depth to an improving offensive line this year.

Unlike most of their division brethren, Minnesota has experience returning throughout the defensive side of the field. In fact, they have a star in each unit. End Carter Coughlin led the team with 6 1/2 sacks. Linebacker Thomas Barber led the team and finished third in the league with 115 tackles, including 10 1/2 for loss. Safety Antoine Winfield looked like an all-conference player when he was healthy in the four games he played.

Minnesota gave up 22.8 points per game and 347 yards per game, which in the Big 12 would have been outstanding. It’s just average in the Big Ten, and the Gophers have a chance to improve those numbers to 20 points and 330 yards given up. A non-conference schedule that should give them three wins means, they only have to go 3-6 to get back to a bowl. That’s a strong possibility.

There is a generation of college football fans that do not know that Nebraska was once what Alabama is today. The Cornhuskers last won the national championship 21 years ago and last looked like the best team ever 23 years ago. The Cornhuskers are a far cry from even respectability, but new coach Scott Frost should stir up excitement at his alma mater. Too bad he doesn’t have eligibility left, because Nebraska could use him under center. Two freshmen are competing for the starting quarterback job, Tristan Gebbia and Adrian Martinez. For the time being, both may play in the early games in hopes that one will emerge as the clear choice.

Whoever is in at quarterback, he will have a fine pair of receivers to aim his throws to. Stanley Morgan, Jr. and J.D. Spielman teamed for 116 receptions and 1,1816 yards. Morgan’s father was a star with the New England Patriots and likely headed to the NFL in another year.
In past years, it was not unusual for Nebraska to rush for 400 to 500 yards with 1st team All-American backs. Things have changed in Lincoln, as the Cornhuskers finished 13th in the league in rushing with just 107.5 yards per game last year. No back topped 500 yards rushing for the season, and leading returnee Tre Bryant fell short of 300 yards. A combination of having Frost’s hurry up spread offense and a better blocking wall should help Nebraska increase their rushing average by 30-50 yards per game this year.
The defense formerly and famously known as the Blackshirts in the dynasty years of this program looked more like the black and blue in recent years. Nebraska gave up 36.4 points and 436.2 yards per game last year, including 42 points to Oregon 56 to Ohio State, and a final three swoon that saw Minnesota, Penn State, and Iowa all top 50 points. Expect these numbers to shrink in 2018. We would not be shocked if NU shaved 10 or more points and 50 or more yards off those poor averages.

The front seven will lead the way in 2018. Nebraska switches to a 3-4 after being an even-front team last year. The move to defensive end from outside linebacker should help Ben Stille team up with Carlos Davis and Freedom Akinmoladun top the 7 sacks the trio produced last year. Linebacker Dedrick Young is the leading returning tackle, and he’ll team with juco transfer Will Honas to give the Cornhuskers a better second line of defense. Expect more aggressive play in the secondary this year, as defensive coordinator Erik Chinander prefers a defense that concentrates on forcing turnovers.
There is a path to six wins for Frost in his first year at Memorial Stadium, but it isn’t going to be easy. After an opening game at home with Akron, the next three games are a bit tricky.
Illinois finished last in offense and 12th in defense in the Big Ten last year, and Coach Lovie Smith realized that desperate measures were needed. After Arizona fired Rich Rodriguez, Smith hired his offensive coordinator, Rod Smith to try to jump start the Illini offense. Quarterback Cam Thomas flashed just enough talent in a relief appearance against Purdue last year to give Illinois fans hope that he can move the team with consistency. The cupboard isn’t bare in the receiving corps, as Mike Dudek, Ricky Smalling, and tight end Louis Dorsey all saw extended playing time in 2017 and combined to catch 77 passes. Mike Epstein led the team with 346 rushing yards, even though he wasn’t the starter. He should top 500 this year. The entire offensive line returns, so expect Illinois to do much better than the paltry 15.4 points and 280 yards per game this year.

Defensively, Illinois gave up 31.5 points and 418 yards per game last year and won only two games, against Ball State and Western Kentucky. In Big Ten play, they went 0-9 and only really challenged in one game. There really is no reason to believe those numbers will improve this year. The defensive line and secondary is the weakest in the Big Ten, and the linebacker trio is only marginally better.

This could be the end of the line for Smith as coach of the Illini. With a 5-19 record in two years, another double-digit loss season might not be acceptable.

Here is how the Big Ten Conference Media voted in the preseason poll, which was taken before Meyer and Durkin were put on leave.

Big Ten
East 1st Place Points
1. Ohio St. 23.5 191.5
2. Michigan St. 2 142
3. Penn St. 1 141.5
4. Michigan 1.5 140.5
5. Maryland 0 75.5
6. Indiana 0 60
7. Rutgers 0 33
West 1st Place Points
1. Wisconsin 28 196
2. Iowa 0 155
3. Northwestern 0 138
4. Nebraska 0 104
5. Purdue 0 98.5
6. Minnesota 0 64.5
7. Illinois 0 28

The PiRate Ratings differ somewhat, and as we have mentioned, we expect considerable movement in these ratings, especially in the East Division if Meyer and/or Durkin are dismissed. LATE NOTE: It was announced Friday afternoon that the Meyer investigation would conclude on Sunday.

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan St. 0-0 0-0 127.7 125.1 128.1 127.0
Ohio St. 0-0 0-0 125.1 122.3 125.6 124.3
Michigan 0-0 0-0 121.7 120.6 122.7 121.6
Penn St. 0-0 0-0 121.2 117.7 121.6 120.2
Maryland 0-0 0-0 102.2 100.2 100.5 101.0
Rutgers 0-0 0-0 98.4 97.0 96.2 97.2
Indiana 0-0 0-0 97.8 96.3 97.3 97.1
West Division
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 0-0 123.1 119.2 123.4 121.9
Northwestern 0-0 0-0 114.8 112.6 115.4 114.3
Iowa 0-0 0-0 113.2 110.0 112.0 111.7
Purdue 0-0 0-0 107.9 106.3 106.6 106.9
Minnesota 0-0 0-0 104.7 103.6 104.0 104.1
Nebraska 0-0 0-0 100.5 98.7 97.8 99.0
Illinois 0-0 0-0 94.0 93.5 92.9 93.5
Big Ten Averages 110.9 108.8 110.3 110.0

 

New Coaches
Not counting the two interim head coaches, Scott Frost is the lone new head coach in the league this year. Frost left undefeated Central Florida to return to his alma mater Nebraska. He turned UCF from an 0-12 team to a 14-0 team in just two years. If he can get Nebraska to a bowl in year one and then compete for 9 wins in 2019, he will have some property named after him in Lincoln.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. Ohio State and Maryland could see their ratings change by large amounts depending on the outcome of the two coaching investigations.

Team Conference Overall
East
Michigan St. 9-0 13-0*
Ohio St. 8-1 11-1
Michigan 7-2 10-2
Penn St. 6-3 9-3
Maryland 3-6 5-7
Rutgers 2-7 5-7
Indiana 0-9 2-10
West
Wisconsin 7-2 10-3
Iowa 7-2 10-2
Northwestern 5-4 7-5
Minnesota 5-4 8-4
Purdue 3-6 4-8
Nebraska 1-8 4-8
Illinois 0-9 2-10
* Michigan State to win Big Ten Champ. Game

Bowl Tie-ins
1. Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA
2. Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL
3. Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL
4. Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA
5. Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL or Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
6. Pinstripe Bowl in New York, NY
7. San Francisco Bowl in San Francisco, CA
8. Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, MI
9. Armed Forces Bowl in Forth Worth, TX
10. Heart of Dallas Bowl in Dallas, TX

Coming Tomorrow–The Atlantic Coast Conference

October 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 26-28, 2017

Oh brother!  I leave my ladies in charge of the website for a few days, and when I return from a nice long weekend, they have rearranged all the e-furniture.  Worse, they exchanged the Money Line picks I had left with their own, and they actually enjoyed a winning week.  They issued four selections (totally different than what I had left to be published), and they won two of the four for a return on investment of 28%.

Believe me, I have not heard the end of this.  Mrs. Captain, of course, sided with her gender, and so this week, I must defer to the ladies to pick the parlays yet again.  All I have done is to organize their picks into the best possible parlay odds by sourcing the best odds from the available books.  What you have as a result are four more parlays, each returning greater than +120 odds (actually this week better than +150) while playing no more than three games per parlay.

Because the ladies selected to teams to win outright as underdogs, and to minimize risk, I have combined these two underdogs in one parlay that, if it wins, it would return an incredible payoff at +375 (a $100 investment would return $475).

One preface to this before you look at the parlays.  Two of the ladies here bleed scarlet and gray and believe that the Giant Horseshoe is a basilica, tabernacle, shrine, and temple.  They believe that script Ohio is akin to the holy scriptures.  Their key pick this week is Ohio State over Penn State, and to add to their partiality, they refer to the opponent at State Pen, and they believe James Franklin was set on Earth by Lucifer.

Personally, I see the Buckeyes ready to get their revenge, but I know Coach Franklin and have seen him work miracles at Vanderbilt.  If he could win at Georgia and Florida as a bigger underdog than his Nittany Lions will be tomorrow, then he can certainly channel his inner Tom Lasorda and get his team ready to run through the walls at said horseshoe.  I would not have selected this game as part of a parlay, but then I have ceded control of this submission to the lasses.

#1 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Marshall
Georgia Florida
#2 @ +162  
Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Vanderbilt
Notre Dame NC State
Texas Baylor
#3 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Iowa Minnesota
Ohio St. Penn St.
#4 @ +375  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Michigan St.
Wyoming New Mexico

Money Line Parlay Tutorial for newcomers to this site

If you are new to Money Lines and Parlays, hopefully this will explain it well enough for you to understand what is going on above.

When two sports teams play, the more familiar way to provide options for wagering is a pointspread.  For instance, say that Notre Dame is playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Alabama might be favored to win by 6 1/2 points.  In order for Alabama to win the game for those that bet on the Crimson Tide, they would have to win by 7 or more points.  If Notre Dame won or lost by 6 points or less, then those that wagered on Notre Dame would win their bets.

There is another way to bet on this game.  It is called the “Money Line.”  Pointspreads are not used.  Instead, you simply pick either Alabama or Notre Dame to win the game.  If you can bet on Alabama to win this game, even by one point, it sounds too good to be true.  Yes, there is a catch here.  In order to bet on Alabama, you must put up more money than the sports book, but if you bet on the underdog Irish to win the game, the book puts up more money than you.  This is why the wager is called a “money line.”

When you look at money line odds, the favorite will have a minus number, and the underdog will have a plus number, although there are times when a tossup game will have two minus numbers.  The reason for this is that the sports books must get their cut or vigorish.

Let’s look at a couple games to be played tonight.  Northern Illinois hosts Eastern Michigan, and NIU is a modest favorite.  The Money Line is available at about 15 sports books where one could make a wager in one’s home via the Internet.  The line may vary from site to sire, so it is best to shop around to find the best odds.

For our purposes in this tutorial, we will use one famous online sports book, Five Dimes.  At the present time, the Money Line odds at 5D for the NIU-EMU game is listed at:   Northern Illinois -275, Eastern Michigan +235.

If you want to wager on NIU, you must put up $275 for every $100 5 Dimes puts up.  If you wager $100 on NIU to win, you will $36.36 profit and receive back $136.36 if NIU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.  If you wager $100 on EMU to win, you will receive $275 profit and receive back $375 if EMU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.

When you combine two or more games into one money line wager, your odds improve, but your chances of winning all the games in the one wager go down.  Let’s say you want to combine three favorites into one betting wager.  Let’s say you are going to play a parlay that includes Favorite #1 at -250, Favorite #2 at -225, and Favorite #3 at -180.

How do yo determine what the odds would be on this parlay of three favorites, all of whom would have to win their games for you to win your wager?  I won’t bore you with the mathematical formula.  There is an easy way to figure the odds, and it is called a parlay calculator.  You don’t have to buy this from a Las Vegas book store.  They are available for free in many places online.  In our opinion, the parlay calculator at Vegasinsider.com is the easiest one to use.  You can find this calculator at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

First, we select $100 for the bet amount (you can put any other amount in this spot, but all of the PiRate Rating parlays are played at $100 per wager.  We simply input -250, -225-, and -180 adjacent to Team #1 Money Line, Team #2 Money Line, and Team #3 Money Line.  Then we click on “Calculate”, and we see the number $214.57 returned.  This means that if these three favorites we have selected all win their games, we will make a $214.57 profit and receive $314.57 in our account (The profit plus what we wagered).  If the three teams do not all win their games, we will be out the $100 we invested on this game.  It can be a headache to see two teams win their games, and then your final favored team loses in an upset due to a fourth quarter field goal, but it happens, and you have to live with it.

Our goal at the PiRate Ratings is to select parlays that return better than +120 odds, while betting mostly on favored teams.  We prefer to play no more than three games in a parlay, but there are times when we might play 6 or 7 prohibitive favorites when the odds look preferable.  We won a 7-team parlay once that returned +200 odds, and all 7 teams won by double-digits.  Of course, this is a rare event.  Every week, some big underdog will upset a favorite.  In recent weeks, we had some considerable underdogs pulling off big upsets.  Syracuse surprised Clemson.  Arizona State beat up on Washington, Arizona took out Washington State, Tulsa whipped Houston, Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Troy beat LSU.  These sure things that could have been included on parlays destroyed the selections.

As usual, read this and understand it: The PiRates never wager real currency on our selections.  We enjoy the fun that mathematics married to athletics brings a group of math geeks.  We only wager imaginary money on these games, and thus we have no worries about issuing these picks.  They are strictly for the fun of it, and enjoying a winning week is a win for mathematics and not our bank accounts.

Enjoy the games, but be just as wealthy on Sunday morning as you are on Saturday morning.

 

October 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Toledo -29.0 -26.8 -29.3
Georgia St. South Alabama -0.7 -3.5 -1.1
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.3 1.6
Oregon St. Stanford -25.0 -23.9 -25.8
Boston College Florida St. -11.7 -10.5 -10.5
Memphis Tulane 12.3 11.5 11.9
SMU Tulsa 4.6 4.9 5.2
Purdue Nebraska 5.4 4.3 7.0
Kentucky Tennessee 6.4 6.9 7.7
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.8 8.6 9.2
Akron Buffalo 4.2 4.3 2.7
South Florida Houston 13.5 12.7 14.7
Wake Forest Louisville -3.4 -3.8 -3.6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) -19.1 -17.9 -19.6
Michigan Rutgers 20.0 20.2 19.5
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13.2 14.2 14.3
Massachusetts Appalachian St. -4.6 -3.5 -4.3
Pittsburgh Virginia 6.2 6.9 5.1
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.0 13.8 14.7
Connecticut Missouri -9.8 -5.3 -8.6
West Virginia Oklahoma St. -11.3 -9.7 -12.0
Maryland Indiana -0.9 0.4 -1.6
Virginia Tech Duke 18.5 18.7 20.2
Illinois Wisconsin -30.8 -26.5 -30.8
Coastal Carolina Texas St. 3.9 2.4 6.4
Deleted Game 0 0 0
Kansas Kansas St. -29.6 -26.4 -30.5
Iowa Minnesota 9.5 8.5 10.0
Wyoming New Mexico 7.2 6.1 5.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -3.1 -6.4 -4.3
BYU San Jose St. 15.0 14.8 15.1
UTEP UTSA -18.4 -17.3 -19.5
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe 1.8 2.5 3.3
Colorado St. Air Force 15.8 14.0 15.6
Southern Miss. UAB 17.4 15.2 15.8
Colorado California 3.9 4.7 3.2
Arizona St. USC -5.0 -5.3 -4.7
Rice Louisiana Tech -10.8 -11.4 -11.3
Oregon Utah 5.3 1.8 3.9
Notre Dame N. Carolina St. 5.7 4.9 6.3
Washington UCLA 23.7 21.8 24.7
Troy Georgia Southern 23.8 22.5 24.0
Northwestern Michigan St. 10.4 7.1 9.5
Deleted Game 0 0 0
North Texas Old Dominion 3.4 2.7 3.9
Baylor Texas -12.9 -11.7 -13.7
Iowa St. TCU -6.6 -4.1 -6.1
Florida (n) Georgia -12.3 -13.6 -13.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 0.6 -2.3 0.1
Arizona Washington St. -10.0 -8.7 -10.7
Oklahoma Texas Tech 20.3 19.3 21.5
Ole Miss Arkansas 6.4 5.5 5.6
Ohio St. Penn St. 9.0 8.4 7.8
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 1.4 -1.5 0.5
Utah St. Boise St. -6.4 -5.5 -6.4
Fresno St. UNLV 16.4 12.9 17.4
Hawaii San Diego St. -7.1 -6.2 -8.0
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Florida Austin Peay 41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Penn St.
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Notre Dame
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Central Florida
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Michigan St.
15 Stanford
16 Virginia Tech
17 North Carolina St.
18 Washington St.
19 USC
20 Auburn
21 South Florida
22 Michigan
23 Texas A&M
24 Mississippi St.
25 LSU
26 Iowa St.
27 Memphis
28 Georgia Tech
29 Toledo
30 West Virginia
31 Iowa
32 Boise St.
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona St.
35 Navy
36 Louisville
37 Fresno St.
38 San Diego St.
39 Arizona
40 Florida St.
41 Wake Forest
42 Texas
43 Northwestern
44 UCLA
45 Florida
46 Boston College
47 Texas Tech
48 Marshall
49 Colorado St.
50 Kentucky
51 SMU
52 Syracuse
53 Oregon
54 Northern Illinois
55 Indiana
56 California
57 Utah
58 Purdue
59 Virginia
60 Western Michigan
61 Houston
62 Troy
63 Minnesota
64 Maryland
65 Appalachian St.
66 Kansas St.
67 Army
68 Florida Atlantic
69 Duke
70 Pittsburgh
71 Southern Miss.
72 Nebraska
73 Colorado
74 Tennessee
75 Ohio
76 Ole Miss
77 Arkansas St.
78 Vanderbilt
79 Tulane
80 Akron
81 Arkansas
82 Air Force
83 Rutgers
84 Wyoming
85 North Texas
86 Utah St.
87 UTSA
88 New Mexico
89 Louisiana Tech
90 Florida Int’l.
91 Western Kentucky
92 Missouri
93 Tulsa
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Central Michigan
96 Cincinnati
97 Temple
98 North Carolina
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico St.
101 Miami (O)
102 Georgia St.
103 Middle Tennessee
104 South Alabama
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 UL-Monroe
109 UAB
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 UNLV
113 Hawaii
114 Oregon St.
115 BYU
116 UL-Lafayette
117 Old Dominion
118 Kent St.
119 Idaho
120 Bowling Green
121 Massachusetts
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Charlotte
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Georgia Southern
130 Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
3 Penn St. 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
4 Georgia 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
5 Washington 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
6 Clemson 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
7 Auburn 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
8 Oklahoma St. 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
9 Virginia Tech 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
10 Oklahoma 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
11 Miami 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
12 Notre Dame 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
13 Wisconsin 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
14 Stanford 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
15 T C U 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
16 Florida St. 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
17 N. Carolina St. 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
18 Washington St. 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
19 U S C 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
20 L S U 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
21 Georgia Tech 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
22 Texas 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
24 Florida 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
25 Louisville 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
26 Michigan 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
27 Kansas St. 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
29 Iowa State 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
30 Mississippi St. 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
31 Syracuse 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
32 Northwestern 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
33 West Virginia 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
34 Iowa 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
35 Texas A&M 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
36 Arizona St. 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
37 S. Carolina 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
38 Kentucky 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
39 Wake Forest 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
40 U C L A 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
41 Boston College 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
42 Duke 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
43 Colo. State 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
44 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
45 Oregon 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
46 Indiana 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
47 Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
48 Michigan St. 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
49 Memphis 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
50 Utah 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
51 Arizona 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
52 California 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
53 Texas Tech 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
54 Minnesota 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
55 Ole Miss 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
56 Purdue 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
59 Toledo 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
60 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
61 Virginia 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
62 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
63 Houston 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
64 Maryland 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
65 Arkansas 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
66 Nebraska 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
67 Baylor 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
68 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
69 N. Carolina 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
70 SMU 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
71 San Diego St. 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
72 Army 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
73 Missouri 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
74 Fresno St. 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
75 Tulsa 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Eastern Michigan 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
77 Florida Atlantic 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
78 Tulane 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
79 Troy 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
80 Ohio U 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
82 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
83 Marshall 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
84 Appalachian St. 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
85 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
86 Northern Illinois 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
87 Utah St. 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
88 U T S A 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
89 Air Force 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
90 W. Kentucky 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
91 Temple 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
92 Oregon St. 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
93 Central Michigan 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
94 New Mexico 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
95 Miami (O) 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
96 Louisiana Tech 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
97 BYU 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
98 Massachusetts 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
99 Cincinnati 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
100 Illinois 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
101 N. Mexico St. 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
103 Akron 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
104 S. Alabama 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
105 Nevada 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
106 Connecticut 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
107 Buffalo 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
108 Hawaii 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
109 U N L V 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
110 Middle Tennessee 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
111 Florida Int’l. 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
112 N. Texas 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
113 Old Dominion 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
114 Georgia St. 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
115 East Carolina 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
116 UL-Lafayette 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
117 Kansas 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
118 UL-Monroe 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
119 Idaho 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
120 Bowling Green 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
121 Kent St. 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
122 San Jose St. 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
123 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
124 Georgia Southern 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
125 UAB 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
126 U T E P 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
129 Ball St. 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
130 Texas St. 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 6-0 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
South Florida 4-0 7-0 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
Connecticut 2-3 3-4 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 3-1 6-1 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
Houston 2-2 4-3 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
SMU 2-1 5-2 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
Tulsa 1-3 2-6 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
Florida St. 2-3 2-4 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
Louisville 2-3 5-3 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
Wake Forest 1-3 4-3 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
Boston College 2-3 4-4 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 2-1 6-1 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 4-0 6-0 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
Duke 1-4 4-4 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
Pittsburgh 1-3 3-5 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
Virginia 2-1 5-2 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
N. Carolina 0-5 1-7 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 3-1 6-1 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
T C U 4-0 7-0 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
Texas 2-2 3-4 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
Kansas St. 1-3 3-4 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
Iowa State 3-1 5-2 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
West Virginia 3-1 5-2 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
Texas Tech 1-3 4-3 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
Baylor 0-4 0-7 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
Kansas 0-4 1-6 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
Penn St. 4-0 7-0 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
Michigan 2-2 5-2 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
Indiana 0-4 3-4 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
Michigan St. 4-0 6-1 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
Maryland 1-3 3-4 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
Rutgers 2-2 3-4 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-0 7-0 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
Northwestern 2-2 4-3 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
Iowa 1-3 4-3 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
Minnesota 1-3 4-3 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
Purdue 1-3 3-4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
Illinois 0-4 2-5 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 3-0 4-3 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
Marshall 3-0 6-1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
W. Kentucky 3-1 5-2 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
Old Dominion 0-3 2-5 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 1-2 4-2 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
Louisiana Tech 1-2 3-4 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
Southern Miss. 3-1 5-2 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
N. Texas 3-1 4-3 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
Rice 1-2 1-6 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
U T E P 0-3 0-7 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
Army   6-2 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
BYU   1-7 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
Massachusetts   1-6 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
             
Indep. Averages     99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
Akron 3-1 4-4 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-1 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 2-5 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
Ball St. 0-3 2-5 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 4-0 6-2 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
Boise St. 3-0 5-2 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
Wyoming 2-1 4-3 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
Utah St. 2-2 4-4 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
Air Force 2-2 3-4 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
New Mexico 1-3 3-4 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-2 6-2 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
Fresno St. 4-0 5-2 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
U N L V 1-3 2-5 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
Stanford 4-1 5-2 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
Oregon 1-4 4-4 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
California 1-4 4-4 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-2 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
Arizona St. 3-1 4-3 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
U C L A 2-2 4-3 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
Colorado 1-4 4-4 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
Utah 1-3 4-3 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
Arizona 3-1 5-2 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
Florida 3-2 3-3 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
Kentucky 2-2 5-2 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
Missouri 0-4 2-5 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
L S U 3-1 6-2 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
Mississippi St. 2-2 5-2 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
Arkansas 0-4 2-5 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 2-1 5-2 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-2 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
S. Alabama 2-1 3-4 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
Georgia St. 2-1 3-3 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
UL-Monroe 3-2 3-4 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
Idaho 1-2 2-5 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-6 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
Coastal Carolina 0-4 1-6 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC North Texas South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Houston Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Arizona
New Mexico CUSA MWC La. Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC N. Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Colorado] Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Fla. Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 SMU [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Arkansas St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Navy San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Virginia [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Iowa USC
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [Western Ky.] Boston Coll.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech West Virginia
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Georgia St.
Cotton At-large At-large TCU Arizona St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1

 

 

October 2, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 4-7, 2017

PiRate Rating Spreads For This Week

October 4-7        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -6.5 -6.9 -8.7
North Carolina St. Louisville 2.5 3.0 2.3
Connecticut Memphis -13.7 -9.8 -13.8
BYU Boise St. -0.5 0.7 0.0
East Carolina Temple -7.2 -6.0 -7.2
Oklahoma Iowa St. 26.2 23.2 26.3
Clemson Wake Forest 27.0 25.1 26.8
Toledo Eastern Michigan 6.7 6.8 8.0
Kansas Texas Tech -14.6 -10.7 -14.5
Iowa Illinois 22.9 21.6 23.8
Vanderbilt Georgia -14.5 -16.4 -15.8
Auburn Ole Miss 27.0 26.3 29.0
Northwestern Penn St. -14.2 -14.0 -14.9
Virginia Duke -2.3 -1.1 0.5
Syracuse Pittsburgh 5.9 4.0 5.9
Ohio U Central Michigan 4.8 5.5 5.7
Miami (O) Bowling Green 15.8 16.8 16.7
Texas St. Louisiana-Monroe -7.5 -5.5 -7.4
Middle Tennessee Florida Int’l. 10.6 11.2 10.3
Appalachian St. New Mexico St. 13.3 12.9 13.4
Purdue Minnesota -3.1 -1.7 -2.2
North Carolina Notre Dame -5.9 -5.9 -8.6
Northern Illinois Kent St. 13.6 11.9 13.5
Navy Air Force 12.4 12.6 12.4
Florida LSU 7.3 7.5 6.3
Buffalo Western Michigan -15.1 -11.0 -14.5
TCU West Virginia 13.0 9.7 13.4
Akron Ball St. 10.7 11.8 9.3
Florida St. Miami (Fla.) 4.6 5.3 4.2
Oregon Washington St. -1.9 -2.6 -2.3
Tulane Tulsa -1.5 -1.0 -0.9
Ohio St. Maryland 31.8 27.1 31.0
USC Oregon St. 29.9 29.5 31.1
UAB Louisiana Tech -22.5 -19.2 -21.4
South Carolina Arkansas 1.7 1.6 1.0
Utah St. Colorado St. -11.6 -11.3 -12.4
Idaho Louisiana-Lafayette 3.0 3.8 4.1
Old Dominion Florida Atlantic 4.3 3.6 3.4
Charlotte Marshall -13.5 -12.6 -14.7
Coastal Carolina Georgia St. -11.6 -9.7 -10.1
Rice Army -14.8 -13.8 -15.3
UTSA Southern Miss. 13.4 13.6 15.6
Texas Kansas St. 2.6 3.6 2.9
Houston SMU 8.0 7.3 7.3
Texas A&M Alabama -32.6 -29.8 -32.7
Boston College Virginia Tech -17.0 -16.0 -18.0
Kentucky Missouri 17.8 19.0 18.6
San Jose St. Fresno St. -10.2 -8.8 -11.4
Michigan Michigan St. 18.4 15.4 17.0
UTEP Western Kentucky -19.4 -15.3 -20.3
Nebraska Wisconsin -17.4 -12.1 -16.4
Cincinnati Central Florida -20.6 -19.9 -20.3
Colorado Arizona 14.7 13.4 13.9
Utah Stanford -7.5 -4.3 -6.5
Nevada Hawaii -0.8 0.9 0.8
Washington California 31.7 31.0 34.1
UNLV San Diego St. -11 -8.4 -11.3
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Indiana Charleston Sou. 29

 

This Week’s PiRate Retrodictive Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings are like rankings, rating teams based on what they have done so far this season without trying to predict the outcome of future games

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.4
2 Clemson 130.8
3 Washington 129.6
4 Oklahoma 129.2
5 Penn St. 127.7
6 Georgia 127.5
7 Michigan 123.8
8 Ohio St. 123.6
9 Wisconsin 123.5
10 Miami (Fla) 123.0
11 TCU 122.9
12 Washington St. 122.2
13 USC 120.7
14 Louisville 120.4
15 San Diego St. 117.9
16 Florida 117.6
17 Virginia Tech 116.5
18 Oklahoma St. 116.1
19 Central Florida 115.8
20 South Florida 115.6
21 Auburn 115.5
22 Notre Dame 115.5
23 Utah 115.2
24 Stanford 115.1
25 North Carolina St. 115.0
26 Texas Tech 114.9
27 Navy 114.9
28 Wake Forest 114.8
29 Mississippi St. 114.7
30 Kansas St. 114.7
31 Minnesota 114.2
32 Oregon 114.0
33 Duke 113.9
34 Iowa 113.5
35 Kentucky 113.4
36 Georgia Tech 113.2
37 Maryland 112.9
38 Florida St. 112.5
39 Houston 112.0
40 Texas A&M 111.8
41 West Virginia 111.4
42 Michigan St. 111.1
43 LSU 110.6
44 Colorado 110.2
45 Tennessee 109.7
46 Toledo 109.3
47 Vanderbilt 108.5
48 South Carolina 108.2
49 Texas 107.7
50 California 107.6
51 Memphis 107.2
52 UCLA 106.9
53 Western Michigan 106.6
54 Nebraska 106.0
55 Boise St. 105.6
56 Northwestern 105.0
57 Indiana 104.7
58 Purdue 104.4
59 Arizona St. 103.9
60 Colorado St. 103.7
61 Virginia 103.4
62 Troy 102.9
63 UTSA 102.0
64 SMU 101.8
65 Arkansas 101.7
66 Appalachian St. 101.5
67 Ole Miss 100.9
68 Northern Illinois 100.7
69 Marshall 100.0
70 Pittsburgh 99.6
71 Ohio 98.9
72 Louisiana Tech 98.4
73 Tulane 98.2
74 Boston College 98.0
75 Arizona 97.8
76 Iowa St. 97.0
77 Utah St. 96.6
78 Air Force 96.2
79 Army 95.9
80 Wyoming 95.3
81 North Carolina 94.5
82 Western Kentucky 94.1
83 Arkansas St. 93.7
84 Southern Miss. 93.3
85 Temple 92.9
86 New Mexico 92.8
87 Fresno St. 92.2
88 Syracuse 91.5
89 North Texas 91.1
90 Tulsa 90.6
91 Florida Int’l. 90.4
92 Eastern Michigan 89.9
93 Buffalo 89.4
94 Illinois 89.3
95 Cincinnati 88.7
96 Miami (O) 88.1
97 Florida Atlantic 88.0
98 Idaho 87.2
99 BYU 86.9
100 Middle Tennessee 86.5
101 Old Dominion 86.1
102 Baylor 85.8
103 New Mexico St. 85.0
104 UNLV 84.9
105 Akron 84.7
106 Missouri 84.7
107 Oregon St. 84.1
108 UL-Monroe 83.6
109 Rutgers 82.9
110 Hawaii 82.5
111 Central Michigan 82.2
112 UL-Lafayette 82.0
113 Ball St. 81.8
114 East Carolina 81.3
115 South Alabama 80.8
116 Connecticut 79.6
117 UAB 79.1
118 Georgia St. 78.3
119 Coastal Carolina 77.9
120 Georgia Southern 77.8
121 Kansas 77.8
122 Kent St. 75.1
123 Rice 75.0
124 Nevada 74.4
125 Massachusetts 73.8
126 Bowling Green 73.3
127 San Jose St. 73.2
128 UTEP 73.1
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 72.2

PiRate Predictive Ratings

Predictive Ratings only look forward to the next week’s games played.  They do not rate teams based on what they have done so far, and in many cases, a higher-rated team may have lost to a lower-rated team (like Ohio State being rated higher than Oklahoma).

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 141.1 136.3 140.1 139.2
2 Ohio St. 132.6 129.9 132.1 131.5
3 Clemson 130.7 127.8 130.3 129.6
4 Washington 130.0 126.9 130.7 129.2
5 Penn St. 127.7 125.7 128.5 127.3
6 Auburn 126.8 124.6 126.9 126.1
7 Oklahoma 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
8 Georgia 123.6 124.3 123.9 123.9
9 Florida St. 124.1 122.6 123.1 123.3
10 Oklahoma St. 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
11 Miami 121.5 119.3 121.0 120.6
12 Wisconsin 122.4 118.4 120.7 120.5
13 U S C 119.5 118.8 119.3 119.2
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.2 119.4 118.8
15 T C U 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
16 Washington St. 118.3 116.1 117.8 117.4
17 Stanford 117.5 116.1 116.7 116.8
18 Michigan 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
19 Louisville 116.3 115.2 116.4 116.0
20 N. Carolina St. 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
21 Notre Dame 115.7 114.5 116.5 115.5
22 Florida 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.5
23 Georgia Tech 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
24 Texas 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
25 Kansas St. 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
26 Oregon 113.4 110.5 112.6 112.2
27 South Florida 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
28 Central Florida 110.7 112.3 111.8 111.6
29 L S U 111.8 110.3 112.2 111.4
30 Kentucky 111.4 110.2 110.9 110.8
31 Colorado 111.5 109.5 109.4 110.1
32 Northwestern 110.6 108.6 110.6 109.9
33 West Virginia 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
34 Iowa 109.6 109.8 109.3 109.6
35 U C L A 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
36 Utah 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
37 Mississippi St. 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
38 Duke 108.4 107.0 107.0 107.5
39 Minnesota 107.3 107.5 106.9 107.2
40 Syracuse 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
41 Colo. State 107.2 105.8 107.5 106.8
42 Wake Forest 106.8 105.7 106.5 106.3
43 Vanderbilt 106.6 105.4 105.6 105.9
44 Arkansas 106.2 105.6 105.7 105.9
45 N. Carolina 106.8 105.6 104.9 105.8
46 Indiana 104.6 104.7 105.0 104.8
47 Pittsburgh 104.9 105.2 104.2 104.8
48 Maryland 103.9 105.8 104.1 104.6
49 Texas A&M 105.5 103.5 104.4 104.5
50 S. Carolina 104.9 104.2 103.7 104.3
51 Houston 104.5 103.8 104.4 104.2
52 Texas Tech 104.5 103.9 103.7 104.0
53 Tennessee 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
54 Virginia 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
55 Iowa State 102.6 103.8 103.3 103.3
56 Western Michigan 102.7 101.0 104.2 102.6
57 Nebraska 102.0 103.4 101.3 102.2
58 San Diego St. 101.9 102.0 102.8 102.2
59 Purdue 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
60 Baylor 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
61 Arizona St. 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
62 Ole Miss 102.8 101.3 100.9 101.7
63 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.5 101.6
64 Memphis 101.7 100.8 101.8 101.4
65 Michigan St. 100.0 102.5 100.7 101.1
66 Toledo 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
67 California 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
68 Boston College 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3
69 SMU 99.0 99.1 99.6 99.2
70 Arizona 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
71 Tulsa 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.7
72 Boise St. 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
73 Appalachian St. 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
74 U T S A 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
75 Troy 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Army 95.5 95.6 96.2 95.8
77 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
78 Eastern Michigan 95.5 95.1 95.5 95.4
79 BYU 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3
80 New Mexico 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
81 Tulane 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
82 Wyoming 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
83 Miami (O) 92.7 94.7 94.2 93.9
84 W. Kentucky 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
85 Rutgers 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
86 Temple 92.7 93.1 92.6 92.8
87 Air Force 91.9 92.5 92.1 92.2
88 Louisiana Tech 91.4 92.5 92.4 92.1
89 Utah St. 92.6 91.5 92.1 92.1
90 Oregon St. 92.6 92.4 91.1 92.0
91 Ohio U 91.1 92.5 92.1 91.9
92 Northern Illinois 90.2 90.0 90.7 90.3
93 Illinois 89.7 91.2 88.5 89.8
94 Marshall 88.7 90.0 90.3 89.7
95 U N L V 88.7 91.1 89.0 89.6
96 Fresno St. 89.8 88.5 90.3 89.6
97 Old Dominion 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
98 Middle Tennessee 89.0 89.8 89.4 89.4
99 Arkansas St. 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
100 Central Michigan 88.7 89.5 88.9 89.0
101 Cincinnati 87.6 89.9 89.1 88.9
102 Kansas 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
103 Florida Atlantic 86.9 89.9 88.1 88.3
104 Hawaii 87.6 88.4 87.4 87.8
105 N. Mexico St. 88.3 86.4 88.5 87.7
106 Buffalo 85.1 87.5 87.2 86.6
107 Connecticut 84.9 88.0 85.0 86.0
108 Southern Miss. 85.3 86.7 85.2 85.7
109 Massachusetts 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
110 Akron 83.9 87.0 84.0 85.0
111 Georgia St. 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
112 N. Texas 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
113 Idaho 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
114 UL-Lafayette 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
115 S. Alabama 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
116 Nevada 82.8 85.3 84.2 84.1
117 East Carolina 82.5 84.1 82.4 83.0
118 Florida Int’l. 80.8 81.1 81.6 81.2
119 UL-Monroe 81.1 81.7 79.9 80.9
120 Kent St. 79.6 81.1 80.2 80.3
121 Bowling Green 79.5 80.4 79.9 79.9
122 Georgia Southern 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
123 Rice 77.7 78.8 77.9 78.1
124 San Jose St. 77.1 77.2 76.4 76.9
125 Ball St. 75.7 77.7 77.2 76.9
126 Charlotte 72.7 75.0 73.1 73.6
127 U T E P 71.7 75.0 71.9 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 70.8 72.1 72.3 71.8
129 Texas St. 71.1 73.7 70.0 71.6
130 UAB 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 2-0 5-0 112.2 110.8 113.3 112.1
Central Florida 1-0 3-0 110.7 112.3 111.8 111.6
Temple 0-2 2-3 92.7 93.1 92.6 92.8
Cincinnati 0-1 2-3 87.6 89.9 89.1 88.9
Connecticut 0-2 1-3 84.9 88.0 85.0 86.0
East Carolina 1-1 1-4 82.5 84.1 82.4 83.0
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 1-0 3-1 104.5 103.8 104.4 104.2
Navy 3-0 4-0 101.4 102.1 101.5 101.6
Memphis 0-1 3-1 101.7 100.8 101.8 101.4
SMU 1-0 4-1 99.0 99.1 99.6 99.2
Tulsa 0-1 1-4 98.8 98.7 98.6 98.7
Tulane 0-1 2-2 94.4 94.6 94.8 94.6
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 3-0 5-0 130.7 127.8 130.3 129.6
Florida St. 1-1 1-2 124.1 122.6 123.1 123.3
Louisville 1-1 4-1 116.3 115.2 116.4 116.0
N. Carolina St. 2-0 4-1 115.8 115.2 115.7 115.6
Syracuse 0-1 2-3 107.8 106.2 107.1 107.0
Wake Forest 1-1 4-1 106.8 105.7 106.5 106.3
Boston College 0-2 2-3 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 1-0 3-0 121.5 119.3 121.0 120.6
Virginia Tech 0-1 4-1 118.9 118.2 119.4 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-0 3-1 116.0 113.7 114.3 114.7
Duke 1-1 4-1 108.4 107.0 107.0 107.5
N. Carolina 0-3 1-4 106.8 105.6 104.9 105.8
Pittsburgh 0-1 2-3 104.9 105.2 104.2 104.8
Virginia 0-0 3-1 103.1 102.9 104.4 103.5
             
ACC Averages     112.9 111.7 112.4 112.3
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 1-0 4-0 125.9 124.0 126.6 125.5
Oklahoma St. 1-1 4-1 122.5 121.1 123.3 122.3
T C U 1-0 4-0 119.5 116.9 119.9 118.7
Texas 1-0 2-2 113.5 114.3 113.9 113.9
Kansas St. 1-0 3-1 113.9 113.8 114.0 113.9
West Virginia 1-0 3-1 109.4 110.2 109.5 109.7
Texas Tech 0-1 3-1 104.5 103.9 103.7 104.0
Iowa State 0-1 2-2 102.6 103.8 103.3 103.3
Baylor 0-2 0-5 101.1 103.0 101.2 101.8
Kansas 0-1 1-3 87.4 90.7 86.7 88.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.0 110.2 110.2 110.1
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 2-0 4-1 132.6 129.9 132.1 131.5
Penn St. 2-0 5-0 127.7 125.7 128.5 127.3
Michigan 1-0 4-0 116.9 116.5 116.2 116.5
Indiana 0-2 2-2 104.6 104.7 105.0 104.8
Maryland 1-0 3-1 103.9 105.8 104.1 104.6
Michigan St. 1-0 3-1 100.0 102.5 100.7 101.1
Rutgers 0-2 1-4 93.9 94.0 93.1 93.7
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 1-0 4-0 122.4 118.4 120.7 120.5
Northwestern 0-1 2-2 110.6 108.6 110.6 109.9
Iowa 0-2 3-2 109.6 109.8 109.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-1 3-1 107.3 107.5 106.9 107.2
Nebraska 2-0 3-2 102.0 103.4 101.3 102.2
Purdue 0-1 2-2 101.1 102.8 101.7 101.9
Illinois 0-1 2-2 89.7 91.2 88.5 89.8
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 2-2 93.6 92.8 94.7 93.7
Marshall 0-0 3-1 88.7 90.0 90.3 89.7
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 88.6 91.1 88.9 89.5
Middle Tennessee 0-1 2-3 89.0 89.8 89.4 89.4
Florida Atlantic 1-0 2-3 86.9 89.9 88.1 88.3
Florida Int’l. 2-0 3-1 80.8 81.1 81.6 81.2
Charlotte 0-1 0-5 72.7 75.0 73.1 73.6
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 3-0 95.7 97.3 97.8 96.9
Louisiana Tech 1-0 3-2 91.4 92.5 92.4 92.1
Southern Miss. 0-1 2-2 85.3 86.7 85.2 85.7
N. Texas 2-0 3-2 84.0 85.6 84.3 84.6
Rice 1-1 1-4 77.7 78.8 77.9 78.1
U T E P 0-1 0-5 71.7 75.0 71.9 72.9
UAB 0-1 2-2 66.5 70.8 68.5 68.6
             
CUSA Averages     83.8 85.5 84.6 84.6
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   4-1 115.7 114.5 116.5 115.5
Army   3-2 95.5 95.6 96.2 95.8
BYU   1-4 95.5 94.9 95.5 95.3
Massachusetts   0-6 85.4 84.7 85.3 85.1
             
Indep. Averages     98.0 97.4 98.4 97.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 1-0 2-3 92.7 94.7 94.2 93.9
Ohio U 1-0 4-1 91.1 92.5 92.1 91.9
Buffalo 1-0 3-2 85.1 87.5 87.2 86.6
Akron 1-0 2-3 83.9 87.0 84.0 85.0
Kent St. 0-1 1-4 79.6 81.1 80.2 80.3
Bowling Green 0-1 0-5 79.5 80.4 79.9 79.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 1-0 3-2 102.7 101.0 104.2 102.6
Toledo 0-0 3-1 99.6 99.5 101.0 100.0
Eastern Michigan 0-1 2-2 95.5 95.1 95.5 95.4
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-2 90.2 90.0 90.7 90.3
Central Michigan 0-1 2-3 88.7 89.5 88.9 89.0
Ball St. 0-1 2-3 75.7 77.7 77.2 76.9
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 1-0 3-2 107.2 105.8 107.5 106.8
Boise St. 1-0 2-2 99.0 97.2 98.5 98.2
New Mexico 1-1 3-2 95.0 94.7 95.8 95.2
Wyoming 1-0 3-2 95.4 94.2 94.2 94.6
Air Force 0-2 1-3 91.9 92.5 92.1 92.2
Utah St. 1-0 3-2 92.6 91.5 92.1 92.1
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 1-0 5-0 101.9 102.0 102.8 102.2
U N L V 1-0 2-2 88.7 91.1 89.0 89.6
Fresno St. 1-0 2-2 89.8 88.5 90.3 89.6
Hawaii 0-2 2-3 87.6 88.4 87.4 87.8
Nevada 0-1 0-5 82.8 85.3 84.2 84.1
San Jose St. 0-2 1-5 77.1 77.2 76.4 76.9
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.4 92.5 92.4
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 2-0 5-0 130.0 126.9 130.7 129.2
Washington St. 2-0 5-0 118.3 116.1 117.8 117.4
Stanford 2-1 3-2 117.5 116.1 116.7 116.8
Oregon 1-1 4-1 113.4 110.5 112.6 112.2
California 0-2 3-2 101.3 98.9 99.6 99.9
Oregon St. 0-2 1-4 92.6 92.4 91.1 92.0
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 2-1 4-1 119.5 118.8 119.3 119.2
Colorado 0-2 3-2 111.5 109.5 109.4 110.1
U C L A 1-1 3-2 108.5 107.8 107.9 108.1
Utah 1-0 4-0 107.0 108.8 107.2 107.7
Arizona St. 1-1 2-3 102.1 101.5 101.5 101.7
Arizona 0-1 2-2 99.8 99.1 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.9 109.4 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 5-0 123.6 124.3 123.9 123.9
Florida 3-0 3-1 116.0 114.9 115.5 115.5
Kentucky 1-1 4-1 111.4 110.2 110.9 110.8
Vanderbilt 0-2 3-2 106.6 105.4 105.6 105.9
S. Carolina 1-2 3-2 104.9 104.2 103.7 104.3
Tennessee 0-2 3-2 104.7 103.0 102.8 103.5
Missouri 0-2 1-3 96.6 94.3 95.3 95.4
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 2-0 5-0 141.1 136.3 140.1 139.2
Auburn 2-0 4-1 126.8 124.6 126.9 126.1
L S U 0-1 3-2 111.8 110.3 112.2 111.4
Mississippi St. 1-2 3-2 107.2 108.0 107.2 107.5
Arkansas 0-1 2-2 106.2 105.6 105.7 105.9
Texas A&M 2-0 4-1 105.5 103.5 104.4 104.5
Ole Miss 0-1 2-2 102.8 101.3 100.9 101.7
             
SEC Averages     111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-2 98.6 96.3 98.9 97.9
Troy 1-0 4-1 96.6 96.6 96.1 96.4
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-2 88.2 89.9 89.8 89.3
N. Mexico St. 0-1 2-3 88.3 86.4 88.5 87.7
Georgia St. 0-0 1-2 84.9 84.2 84.9 84.7
Idaho 1-0 2-2 83.5 85.6 84.4 84.5
UL-Lafayette 0-1 1-3 84.0 85.3 83.8 84.4
S. Alabama 0-1 1-4 83.2 86.0 83.3 84.2
UL-Monroe 2-0 2-2 81.1 81.7 79.9 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-3 79.2 80.5 78.6 79.4
Coastal Carolina 0-1 1-3 70.8 72.1 72.3 71.8
Texas St. 0-1 1-4 71.1 73.7 70.0 71.6
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.1 84.9 84.2 84.4

Ratings By Conference

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.9 111.7 112.4 112.3
2 SEC 111.8 110.4 111.1 111.1
3 BIG 12 110.0 110.2 110.2 110.1
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.9 109.4 109.4
5 BIG TEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 98.0 97.4 98.4 97.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.4 92.4 92.5 92.4
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.8 85.5 84.6 84.6
11 Sun Belt 84.1 84.9 84.2 84.4

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
N. Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Cure AAC SBC [W. Kentucky] Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Boise St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U New Mexico St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Buffalo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Fresno St.] Florida Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Atlantic Western Mich.
Potato MAC MWC Miami (O) Wyoming
B’ham AAC SEC 8-9 Memphis Tennessee
Arm. Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army Nebraska
$ General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii AAC MWC Houston Hawaii
Ht. of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Kansas St. UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Toledo] Michigan St.
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Texas Colorado
Independ. ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 [Old Dominion] [UNLV]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Virginia Maryland
F. Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Purdue Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Arkansas
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy [Middle Tenn.]
Camp.Wrld ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern UCLA
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 TCU USC
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Duke Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Mississippi St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. [Iowa]
Cotton At-large At-large Penn St. Georgia
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Minnesota South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Washington St. Wisconsin
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Louisville Ohio St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Texas A&M
Peach At-large At-large Notre Dame Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Miami (Fla.) Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Clemson Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Washington
Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Clemson
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

It’s Bowl Contention/Elimination Season
Welcome to real Autumn. As the calendar page flips to October, college football season is in full bloom. Many schools will reach the halfway point of their schedule this weekend. Another sign that Autumn is here in earnest–college football picks up another day, as the Wednesday night scheduling begins this week.

If it’s October, then it is time to start looking at bowl eligibility. Obviously, there are dynasties like Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and others that are going to a bowl with 100% certainty, and there are teams like Charlotte, Kansas, and Oregon State that are definitely not going to a bowl.

There are about 80 teams in position to become bowl eligible, and maybe 55 to 60 of these schools will earn it, while the other 20 to 25 will fall short. We call this time of year, Bowl Contention/Elimination Season (BCES). Each week, there will be games where the winner will stay in contention for a bowl, while the loser will either be severely damaged or outright eliminated from bowl contention. Let’s take a look at some of the early BCES games in October.

Illinois (2-2) at Iowa (3-2). The loser of this game cannot find a path to 6-6. Illinois must win this game and then defeat Rutgers, and then two from Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, and Northwestern. If the Illini cannot beat Iowa, they cannot win four others. Iowa’s offense is struggling with new a new quarterback, receivers, and running backs. They will have to squeak by three more opponents and have a tough closing schedule.

Duke (4-1) at Virginia (3-1). This is not a bowl elimination game. The winner of this one is in very good shape to become bowl eligible, in fact close to 100% likely with just one loss.

Pittsburgh (2-3) at Syracuse (2-3). This is a true bowl eliminator. The winner moves to 3-3 and stays in contention for a bowl at probably 6-6, while the loser is not going to win four more games.

Florida International (3-1) at Middle Tennessee (2-3). This was not how it was supposed to be this year in CUSA. Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and Middle Tennessee are struggling, while FIU is in contention for the East Division title. For Middle, they have serious injury issues on offense, namely their quarterback and top two receivers. FIU has improved each week under Butch Davis, and a win this week probably gives the Panthers anywhere from 85-90% chance of getting to six wins.

Minnesota (3-1) at Purdue (2-2). This is a trap game for Minnesota. After losing a tough home game to Maryland, the Gophers travel to West Lafayette to take on a much-improved, confident Boilermaker team that will be coming off a bye week and will be playing in the memory of former great PU coach Joe Tiller, who recently passed away. Jeff Brohm will have Purdue fired up to win this game, and at 3-2, Purdue will be more than Spoilermakers; they will be serious bowl contenders.

Tulsa (1-4) at Tulane (2-2). The winner still has a chance to make a bowl this year. The loser has no chance. Green Wave second year coach Willie Fritz will start getting noticed by the big schools if he guides Tulane to a bowl in his second year in New Orleans. Fritz worked wonders at Georgia Southern, and before that, he turned programs around at Sam Houston State and Central Missouri. Fritz’s offense is unique in college football. It may look a lot like Army, Navy, and Georgia Tech’s triple option offense, but it is nothing like those three. It is more similar to the old Nebraska offense with zone blocking rules and regular (double) options with power running and quick passing. His style of play might work in the Big 12 or even the SEC. He might get a chance to interview at an SEC school in December if TU can make a run to a bowl.

Arkansas (2-2) at South Carolina (3-2). If Arkansas loses this game, the Razorbacks are in serious jeopardy of not getting to six wins this year, and it could be one of three or four SEC schools looking to replace a coach. South Carolina coach Will Muschamp is okay to stay if he goes 5-7, but Brett Bielema may have a tough time keeping the job in Fayetteville if he doesn’t get the Razorbacks to eight wins.

UL-Lafayette (1-3) at Idaho (2-2). It is hard to beat Idaho in the Kibbie Dome in Moscow. There will be very little chance that ULL will recover to 6-6 if they lose to the Vandals this week. On the other side of the field, Idaho must get to seven wins to have a legitimate chance at a bowl. The Sun Belt will not go to bat for the Vandals unless they force the issue, because Idaho is dropping to FCS at the end of this year and will no longer be a SBC member. Only if the SBC has no other options, will Idaho get a fair shake.

Florida Atlantic (2-3) at Old Dominion (2-2). The winner of this one moves into decent contention for a bowl. It is our opinion that CUSA will end up with more bowl eligible teams than bowl contracts, but there are always other leagues that cannot fill their allotment of bowl bids. Due to geography, this league has an advantage in placing at-large teams in bowls.

Arizona (2-2) at Colorado (3-2). Rich Rodriguez is in serious trouble in Tucson, and anything short of a bowl invitation should be the end of his tenure in the desert. The Wildcats would need three more wins if they beat the Buffaloes at Folsom Field this week, but finding three more wins is still a tough task. Colorado would need just two more wins if they hold off the Wildcats in Boulder, and Mike MacIntyre has job security in the Rockies.

The Playoff Race, or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love A Threepeat
At this point in the season, it might be insane to think that any team other than Alabama or Clemson has a chance to make it to the College Football National Championship Game. Sure, there are a lot of really good teams, some that might run the table and enter the playoffs at 13-0. But, at this point of the season, the two powers look to be in a league of their own, headed to a rubber match in Atlanta, which would be the perfect neutral site.
How rare is it for the same two teams to play for the Championship of a sport three years in a row? In one word–Very! College football has only had a playoff for a couple years, and before that a BCS Championship, so the chances have not been there for it to happen. It could be argued that from 1944 to 1946, Army and Notre Dame played in essence the National Championship Game when they faced off at Yankee Stadium, but those games were in-season, and there was no guarantee that the winner would be the champion.
In the NFL, no two Super Bowl teams have every played each other three years in a row. Prior to the Super Bowl era, The Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns played for the NFL title in 1952, 1953, and 1954.

The New York Giants and New York Yankees squared off in three consecutive World Series in 1921, 1922, and 1923. In the NBA, the Warriors and Cavaliers have played each other for the title the last three years, and in the NHL, even though for many years there were not even 10 total teams (just 6 for many of those years), it has still been rare. Detroit and Montreal met for the Stanley Cup in 1954, 1955, and 1956.

 

September 28, 2017

Is It Time For The Professional University Football League?

Many times in the last quarter century, multiple sports professionals have bantered about having one super conference in college sports. Media members, former athletic administrators and others have discussed what might happen if the largest financially successful athletic programs drop all pretenses and secede from the NCAA, forming their own professional college league.

The PiRates have always believed in amateur athletics, but at this point, it is hard to keep the amateur in high school athletics, where you have football and basketball factory high schools all over the country.

Maybe the time has come for the big boys to leave the supposedly amateur NCAA and form a new entity. The time may be the most ideal since the thought first became public.

With the NFL potentially crippled for the near term and maybe never again to experience the heights it enjoyed since it surpassed baseball circa 1969, when the Major Leagues divided into divisions, meaning the two best teams did not always play in the World Series, and when Joe Namath made that Super Bowl III guarantee.

Add to this the current FBI probe that has already brought down Rick Pitino and many assistant coaches and may eventually lead to some top schools landing in serious trouble. Recruiting the 5-star athletes leads to all sorts of dirty underhanded dealing.

The fix would be for the 32 biggest football factories to leave the NCAA and form their own professional league of universities.

What we call the PUFL (Professional University Football League) could take these 32 great teams with the gragantuan football stadiums and divide into eight divisions of four teams each. The league could play a 16-game schedule with a couple of pre-season games, and then 12 teams would make the playoffs, leading up to the College Super Bowl, or whatever they might call it.

Instead of recruiting and signing players who would enroll in college as students, the players would be reclassified as employees and would not go to school as students. There would be a draft similar to the early days of the American Football League. Certain players living near a campus could be reserved and signed by the school in their area, but only a small amount. The remainder of the top talent could be drafted and signed to a 3-year contract. The draft would run for 16 rounds, and each drafted player would be guaranteed a 3-year contract.  After the third year, players could move on to the NFL or sign a new 1-year contract and remain employed with the college.  An option could be that the player could become a free agent after three years and sign with another college.

After 16 rounds, the schools could then sign free agent high school talents in order to fill out a 60-man roster. With 60 players under contract for 3-year contracts, each school would then have a salary cap of $6 million. That would mean the average player would make $100,000 per year. There would be no need to have boosters paying recruits to receive under the table payments, because the top 512 players would belong to the team that drafted them (16 draft rounds of 32 teams).

The $6 million in salaries would more than be made up by added revenue from a television contract that would dwarf today’s current NCAA contract. All the major networks might want to participate. With 16 games a week, all 16 games could be televised nationally. The ratings would go through the roof, and the schools could make much more money than they currently do.

The Big Ten and SEC schools currently receive around $30-40 million from their networks.  According to the Green Bay Packers’ financial records, each NFL team received $244 million in TV revenue in 2016. We believe the PUFL teams could top that and maybe receive $300-500 million a year! The college game has the potential to do to the NFL what the NFL did to all other sports. This might be the time to strike, while the NFL has a serious wound that worsens daily, and while some current basketball personnel may be soon wearing a uniform with stripes for 2 to 5 years.

This is our offering for the 32 teams

Eastern Division
Maryland
Penn St.
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

Mideast Division
Michigan
Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Ohio St.

Midwest Division
Iowa
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Wisconsin

Lower South Division
Clemson
Florida
Florida St.
Miami

Upper South Division
Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
Tennessee

Southwest Division
Arkansas
LSU
Texas
Texas A&M

Upper West Division
California
Oregon
Utah
Washington

Lower West Division
Arizona St.
San Diego St.
UCLA
USC

Imagine it is Thanksgiving Day. In the early morning, Ohio State and Michigan can play. A little later, Alabama and Auburn would square off. After this game kicks off, Nebraska and Oklahoma would begin, followed by Texas and Texas A&M. Then in the late afternoon, Washington and Oregon would play, followed by UCLA and USC in the late game. Because teams in the same division would play twice a year, you could easily stage the second game on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Or, you could add other potential bonanza games like USC-Notre Dame, Texas-Arkansas, Penn State-West Virginia, LSU-Alabama, Florida-Florida State, or Clemson-Georgia.

If fans will pay $50+ to see Alabama and Fresno State or Ohio State and UNLV in non-conference games, how much might an Alabama-Oklahoma or a Ohio State-USC game command?

Think about TV ratings. Rather than have to stick with a 59-0 massacre, CBS would not have to worry about a terrible mismatch like Alabama pasting Vanderbilt. With an annual draft of the top players, Alabama or anybody else would not be 59 points better than another opponent. In fact, Alabama fans would have to deal with seasons where 12-4 records might be the best they can expect. Some current power might be hung with a string of losing seasons rather than suffer through a 7-win rebuilding season with three or four wins over the little sisters of the poor.

What would happen to all the other schools? Do you really think these big behemoths would care all that much? The other schools would have to make do with what was left over. Maybe, they could return to educating first with athletics becoming more of a real amateur competition. Would a leftover school really try to go after the 700th best athlete by throwing money at him? Would the shoe companies or some Nationwide Ned try to broker players to schools, when all the 4 and 5-star athletes would be off limits to them?

It could lead to new Ivy League type conferences. Duke, Northwestern, Stanford, Army, Navy, Air Force, Vanderbilt, Tulane, and Rice could form a league and bring back some of the former football greats of the past that once played major college football, like Fordham. These schools could team up with the current Ivy League and Patriot League and form their own alliance of teams that put academics first ahead of athletics.

September 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 21-23, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:15 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
South Florida Temple 18.3 15.9 19.4
Boise St. Virginia 5.1 3.0 3.2
Arizona Utah -3.6 -6.7 -5.6
Appalachian St. Wake Forest -6.1 -7.6 -5.5
North Carolina Duke 2.7 2.8 2.6
Purdue Michigan -11.7 -9.6 -10.2
Georgia Tech Pittsburgh 10.8 8.0 9.5
Iowa Penn St. -14.3 -12.2 -15.6
Clemson Boston College 36.5 31.9 36.8
Florida St. North Carolina St. 16.5 14.8 16.1
Georgia Mississippi St. 7.7 8.2 7.3
South Carolina Louisiana Tech 22.1 20.1 20.2
Tennessee Massachusetts 31.5 30.3 29.8
Kansas West Virginia -18.4 -15.9 -19.0
Kentucky Florida 0.5 -0.1 1.0
Maryland Central Florida 5.9 6.0 5.1
Louisville Kent St. 37.5 34.8 36.7
Eastern Michigan Ohio U 6.9 4.7 6.0
Central Michigan Miami (O) 1.3 -0.8 -0.4
Virginia Tech Old Dominion 31.1 27.6 31.1
Charlotte Georgia St. -6.7 -3.4 -6.1
Indiana Georgia Southern 28.1 26.8 28.9
Buffalo Florida Atlantic 2.1 1.5 3.0
Nebraska Rutgers 6.9 8.6 6.4
Miami (Fla.) Toledo 22.0 19.7 19.5
Colorado Washington -12.3 -10.9 -15.2
New Mexico St. UTEP 18.0 11.4 16.8
Navy Cincinnati 11.2 9.9 9.4
Ohio St. UNLV 44.7 39.0 43.5
Michigan St. Notre Dame -11.7 -6.4 -11.1
Wyoming Hawaii 11.2 7.5 9.8
Tulsa New Mexico 14.0 13.2 13.6
LSU Syracuse 11.2 11.2 12.7
Troy Akron 14.1 10.5 13.6
Middle Tennessee Bowling Green 14.3 14.4 14.0
Missouri Auburn -21.3 -21.8 -22.2
Houston Texas Tech 4.6 3.7 5.6
SMU Arkansas St. 10.8 9.4 9.4
Vanderbilt Alabama -18.3 -15.4 -17.8
Tulane Army 0.7 1.5 0.1
Oklahoma St. TCU 14.2 15.1 15.7
Western Kentucky Ball St. 17.8 14.3 17.4
North Texas UAB 20.3 17.0 18.3
Texas St. UTSA -19.2 -18.0 -22.4
Air Force San Diego St. -6.3 -6.0 -7.2
Texas A&M Arkansas 1.1 -0.5 -0.1
Rice Florida Int’l. 0.1 0.9 -0.7
South Alabama Idaho 4.9 5.6 4.1
UL-Lafayette UL-Monroe 5.4 6.3 6.7
Baylor Oklahoma -25.9 -21.3 -27.2
California USC -16.4 -18.4 -18.2
Washington St. Nevada 36.0 30.2 33.2
Arizona St. Oregon -11.0 -7.1 -11.2
Stanford UCLA 9.8 9.2 9.3
San Jose St. Utah St. 0.3 0.8 0.5
Connecticut East Carolina 6.6 7.9 7.5
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Coastal Carolina Western Illinois 5
Western Michigan Wagner 40
Memphis Southern Illinois 26

Same Two Again?
With Clemson’s dominating win at Louisville, our ratings now show the top two teams from last year resuming the top two spots again this season. For now, Alabama stays ahead of Clemson in our ratings, but internally, our Retrodictive Ratings show that Clemson is less than .2 point behind the Tide and just .5 point behind ‘Bama in the Predictive Ratings.

Who at this point looks like the best contenders for the other two Playoff spots? Oklahoma figures in as a high contender, but then so does Oklahoma State. If either runs the table, they are in. Out west, Washington and USC hold the top two spots, but Washington State, Utah, and Colorado are still in contention, as is a Dark Horse Cal Bears team.

In the Big Ten, Penn State has the look of a team that can go into the Horseshoe and do the same thing to Ohio State that Oklahoma did. Michigan is chugging along but looks to be missing something and probably cannot run the table. Ohio State is still in the Big Ten race, but to make the Playoffs now, the Buckeyes must start winning consistently and take out all Big Ten foes. In the West, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota are in contention but any of these teams will have to run the table to make it to the Final Four.

Aside from the Crimson Tide, Georgia and Mississippi State have chances to earn a playoff spot. The two Bulldogs face off in what has become a very important contest on Saturday.

Top Group of 5 Teams
Two teams appear to be at the top of the list for the Group of 5 Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid, but there are plenty of contenders, and it is much too early to call any one team convincingly ahead of the rest.

South Florida has had a little difficulty early in their games, but once the Bulls get on track, they play competently enough to run the table and earn that NY6 Bowl. San Diego State actually has a bigger win, having just knocked off Stanford, but the Aztecs still have a difficult couple of games to take the bid. Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Toledo, and Navy are the top contenders for now.

PiRate Retrodictive Ratings

(like a poll based on what they have done to date)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Washington
4 Oklahoma
5 USC
6 Penn St.
7 LSU
8 Ohio St.
9 Oklahoma St.
10 Wisconsin
11 Michigan
12 Miami (Fla)
13 Georgia
14 Louisville
15 Florida St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Mississippi St.
18 TCU
19 Auburn
20 Stanford
21 Utah
22 Washington St.
23 Iowa
24 Florida
25 Colorado
26 Kansas St.
27 Tennessee
28 Minnesota
29 Houston
30 San Diego St.
31 South Florida
32 Georgia Tech
33 Wake Forest
34 Oregon
35 Notre Dame
36 Vanderbilt
37 West Virginia
38 Boise St.
39 Toledo
40 Duke
41 Kentucky
42 Michigan St.
43 South Carolina
44 UCLA
45 Maryland
46 California
47 Texas A&M
48 North Carolina St.
49 Memphis
50 Northwestern
51 Navy
52 Texas
53 Western Michigan
54 Texas Tech
55 Tulsa
56 Arkansas
57 North Carolina
58 Air Force
59 Ole Miss
60 Pittsburgh
61 Nebraska
62 Colorado St.
63 Appalachian St.
64 Central Florida
65 Temple
66 Purdue
67 UTSA
68 Iowa St.
69 Indiana
70 Arizona
71 Northern Illinois
72 Army
73 Troy
74 Louisiana Tech
75 Arkansas St.
76 Western Kentucky
77 SMU
78 BYU
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Syracuse
81 Southern Miss.
82 Boston College
83 Old Dominion
84 Illinois
85 Tulane
86 Cincinnati
87 Virginia
88 Ohio
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Arizona St.
91 Wyoming
92 New Mexico
93 Baylor
94 Central Michigan
95 Marshall
96 Missouri
97 Oregon St.
98 Rutgers
99 Miami (O)
100 Hawaii
101 Ball St.
102 Idaho
103 UL-Lafayette
104 Coastal Carolina
105 Utah St.
106 New Mexico St.
107 Akron
108 South Alabama
109 North Texas
110 Fresno St.
111 Buffalo
112 Connecticut
113 Nevada
114 UAB
115 Georgia Southern
116 UL-Monroe
117 San Jose St.
118 Kansas
119 Rice
120 UNLV
121 East Carolina
122 Kent St.
123 Florida Atlantic
124 Florida Int’l.
125 Bowling Green
126 Georgia St.
127 UTEP
128 Texas St.
129 Massachusetts
130 Charlotte

PiRate Predictive Ratings

(tries to predict the outcome of the next game on each team’s schedule)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 132.2 127.6 131.0 130.3
2 Clemson 131.2 127.6 130.7 129.8
3 Ohio St. 129.2 126.5 128.5 128.1
4 Oklahoma 128.1 125.9 129.1 127.7
5 Washington 128.4 125.0 129.1 127.5
6 Penn St. 127.7 125.5 128.5 127.2
7 Oklahoma St. 126.1 124.4 127.6 126.0
8 Florida St. 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
9 Auburn 122.7 120.6 122.5 121.9
10 Wisconsin 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
11 U S C 120.8 120.3 120.9 120.7
12 Virginia Tech 118.3 117.5 118.9 118.2
13 Miami 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
14 Georgia 116.7 117.9 116.8 117.1
15 Stanford 116.6 115.2 115.8 115.9
16 Washington St. 117.0 114.3 116.1 115.8
17 Michigan 116.2 115.8 115.4 115.8
18 Louisville 116.0 114.7 116.0 115.6
19 L S U 115.5 113.7 116.2 115.1
20 Florida 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
21 Kansas St. 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
22 T C U 114.9 112.3 114.9 114.0
23 Texas 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
24 N. Carolina St. 113.4 113.1 113.1 113.2
25 Oregon 114.3 110.8 113.6 112.9
26 Notre Dame 113.3 111.5 113.6 112.8
27 Mississippi St. 112.1 112.7 112.5 112.4
28 Kentucky 113.0 111.5 112.7 112.4
29 Colorado 113.1 111.1 110.9 111.7
30 Georgia Tech 113.1 110.6 111.1 111.6
31 Tennessee 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
32 Iowa 110.4 110.3 109.9 110.2
33 Vanderbilt 110.9 109.2 110.2 110.1
34 N. Carolina 110.8 109.7 109.3 109.9
35 South Florida 109.9 108.2 110.9 109.7
36 Northwestern 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
37 U C L A 109.8 109.0 109.5 109.4
38 West Virginia 109.1 109.9 109.1 109.4
39 Minnesota 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
40 Duke 109.6 108.4 108.2 108.7
41 Utah 106.6 108.7 107.0 107.4
42 S. Carolina 107.6 106.8 106.6 107.0
43 Arkansas 106.7 106.2 106.5 106.5
44 Syracuse 107.2 105.6 106.5 106.4
45 Maryland 105.6 107.7 105.7 106.3
46 Wake Forest 106.7 105.8 106.3 106.2
47 Indiana 105.0 105.1 105.4 105.2
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 105.6 104.6 105.2
49 Memphis 105.3 104.1 105.5 104.9
50 Ole Miss 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
51 Houston 105.0 103.9 104.9 104.6
52 Colo. State 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
53 Texas A&M 104.8 102.7 103.4 103.6
54 Iowa State 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
55 Central Florida 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
56 San Diego St. 103.1 103.0 104.2 103.4
57 Texas Tech 102.9 102.7 101.8 102.5
58 Tulsa 102.6 102.0 102.7 102.4
59 Purdue 101.5 103.2 102.2 102.3
60 Nebraska 100.6 102.3 99.6 100.8
61 Virginia 100.2 100.3 101.6 100.7
62 Boise St. 101.4 99.3 100.8 100.5
63 Arizona St. 100.4 100.7 99.4 100.2
64 Toledo 99.6 99.6 101.3 100.2
65 Michigan St. 98.6 102.0 99.5 100.0
66 California 101.4 98.9 99.6 100.0
67 Baylor 99.2 101.6 98.9 99.9
68 Navy 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
69 Arizona 100.0 99.0 98.4 99.1
70 Western Michigan 99.2 97.4 100.5 99.0
71 BYU 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
72 Boston College 97.7 98.7 96.9 97.8
73 Appalachian St. 98.0 95.7 98.3 97.3
74 SMU 97.1 97.3 97.4 97.3
75 Missouri 98.4 95.9 97.2 97.2
76 Army 96.5 96.0 97.4 96.6
77 Rutgers 96.7 96.7 96.2 96.5
78 U T S A 94.4 96.1 96.6 95.7
79 Temple 94.6 95.3 94.5 94.8
80 Wyoming 95.8 93.7 94.4 94.6
81 Eastern Michigan 94.6 94.2 94.5 94.4
82 Tulane 94.2 94.5 94.5 94.4
83 W. Kentucky 94.1 93.0 95.3 94.1
84 Air Force 93.7 94.1 94.0 93.9
85 Miami (O) 92.1 94.6 94.0 93.6
86 Troy 93.7 93.8 92.9 93.5
87 Middle Tennessee 92.2 92.7 92.7 92.5
88 Cincinnati 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
89 Oregon St. 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
90 New Mexico 91.6 91.8 92.1 91.8
91 Illinois 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
92 Central Michigan 90.9 91.3 91.1 91.1
93 Ohio U 90.2 92.0 91.0 91.1
94 Arkansas St. 89.3 90.9 91.0 90.4
95 Old Dominion 89.2 91.9 89.7 90.3
96 Northern Illinois 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
97 Louisiana Tech 88.5 89.7 89.4 89.2
98 Hawaii 88.6 90.2 88.6 89.1
99 Kansas 87.7 91.0 87.1 88.6
100 U N L V 87.5 90.4 87.9 88.6
101 Fresno St. 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
102 Southern Miss. 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
103 Connecticut 86.4 89.5 87.0 87.6
104 Marshall 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
105 N. Mexico St. 87.1 84.7 86.6 86.1
106 Nevada 84.0 87.1 86.0 85.7
107 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.4 85.2 85.6
108 S. Alabama 84.5 87.4 84.7 85.5
109 Utah St. 86.0 85.1 85.0 85.4
110 Buffalo 83.2 85.9 85.2 84.8
111 UL-Lafayette 84.2 85.5 84.0 84.6
112 Idaho 83.2 85.3 84.1 84.2
113 Akron 82.6 86.3 82.4 83.8
114 N. Texas 82.7 84.1 82.8 83.2
115 Massachusetts 83.5 82.7 83.4 83.2
116 San Jose St. 83.3 82.9 82.5 82.9
117 East Carolina 82.3 84.2 82.0 82.8
118 Georgia St. 83.0 82.2 82.8 82.7
119 Kent St. 81.5 82.9 82.3 82.2
120 Florida Int’l. 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
121 UL-Monroe 81.2 81.7 79.8 80.9
122 Bowling Green 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
123 Georgia Southern 79.9 81.2 79.5 80.2
124 Ball St. 78.8 81.2 80.4 80.1
125 Rice 78.8 79.8 79.0 79.2
126 Charlotte 74.3 76.9 74.7 75.3
127 Coastal Carolina 73.5 74.9 75.2 74.6
128 Texas St. 73.2 76.0 72.2 73.8
129 U T E P 71.6 75.8 72.2 73.2
130 UAB 65.4 70.1 67.5 67.7

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 0-0 3-0 109.9 108.2 110.9 109.7
Central Florida 0-0 1-0 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
Temple 0-0 2-1 94.6 95.3 94.5 94.8
Cincinnati 0-0 2-1 90.7 93.1 92.5 92.1
Connecticut 0-0 1-1 86.4 89.5 87.0 87.6
East Carolina 0-0 0-3 82.3 84.2 82.0 82.8
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 2-0 105.3 104.1 105.5 104.9
Houston 0-0 2-0 105.0 103.9 104.9 104.6
Tulsa 0-0 1-2 102.6 102.0 102.7 102.4
Navy 1-0 2-0 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
SMU 0-0 2-1 97.1 97.3 97.4 97.3
Tulane 0-1 1-2 94.2 94.5 94.5 94.4
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 3-0 131.2 127.6 130.7 129.8
Florida St. 0-0 0-1 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
Louisville 1-1 2-2 116.0 114.7 116.0 115.6
N. Carolina St. 0-0 2-1 113.4 113.1 113.1 113.2
Syracuse 0-0 2-1 107.2 105.6 106.5 106.4
Wake Forest 1-0 3-0 106.7 105.8 106.3 106.2
Boston College 0-1 1-2 97.7 98.7 96.9 97.8
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 0-0 3-0 118.3 117.5 118.9 118.2
Miami 0-0 1-0 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
Georgia Tech 0-0 1-1 113.1 110.6 111.1 111.6
N. Carolina 0-1 1-2 110.8 109.7 109.3 109.9
Duke 0-0 3-0 109.6 108.4 108.2 108.7
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-2 105.3 105.6 104.6 105.2
Virginia 0-0 2-1 100.2 100.3 101.6 100.7
             
ACC Averages     112.5 111.3 111.9 111.9
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 0-0 3-0 128.1 125.9 129.1 127.7
Oklahoma St. 0-0 3-0 126.1 124.4 127.6 126.0
Kansas St. 0-0 2-1 114.1 113.8 114.3 114.1
T C U 0-0 3-0 114.9 112.3 114.9 114.0
Texas 0-0 1-2 113.2 114.0 113.4 113.6
West Virginia 0-0 2-1 109.1 109.9 109.1 109.4
Iowa State 0-0 2-1 102.9 104.1 103.8 103.6
Texas Tech 0-0 2-0 102.9 102.7 101.8 102.5
Baylor 0-0 0-3 99.2 101.6 98.9 99.9
Kansas 0-0 1-2 87.7 91.0 87.1 88.6
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 2-1 129.2 126.5 128.5 128.1
Penn St. 0-0 3-0 127.7 125.5 128.5 127.2
Michigan 0-0 3-0 116.2 115.8 115.4 115.8
Maryland 0-0 2-0 105.6 107.7 105.7 106.3
Indiana 0-1 1-1 105.0 105.1 105.4 105.2
Michigan St. 0-0 2-0 98.6 102.0 99.5 100.0
Rutgers 0-0 1-2 96.7 96.7 96.2 96.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 3-0 122.8 118.6 121.0 120.8
Iowa 0-0 3-0 110.4 110.3 109.9 110.2
Northwestern 0-0 2-1 110.2 108.4 110.3 109.6
Minnesota 0-0 3-0 109.5 109.3 109.3 109.4
Purdue 0-0 2-1 101.5 103.2 102.2 102.3
Nebraska 0-0 1-2 100.6 102.3 99.6 100.8
Illinois 0-0 2-1 91.6 92.9 90.6 91.7
             
Big Ten Averages     109.0 108.9 108.7 108.9
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-1 1-2 94.1 93.0 95.3 94.1
Middle Tennessee 0-0 1-2 92.2 92.7 92.7 92.5
Old Dominion 0-0 2-1 89.2 91.9 89.7 90.3
Marshall 0-0 2-1 85.9 87.1 87.2 86.8
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-2 84.1 87.4 85.2 85.6
Florida Int’l. 0-0 1-1 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
Charlotte 0-0 0-3 74.3 76.9 74.7 75.3
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 2-0 94.4 96.1 96.6 95.7
Louisiana Tech 1-0 2-1 88.5 89.7 89.4 89.2
Southern Miss. 0-0 2-1 87.7 88.9 87.7 88.1
N. Texas 0-0 1-2 82.7 84.1 82.8 83.2
Rice 1-0 1-2 78.8 79.8 79.0 79.2
U T E P 0-1 0-3 71.6 75.8 72.2 73.2
UAB 0-0 2-1 65.4 70.1 67.5 67.7
             
CUSA Averages     83.6 85.4 84.4 84.5
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   2-1 113.3 111.5 113.6 112.8
BYU   1-3 98.9 98.1 99.4 98.8
Army   2-1 96.5 96.0 97.4 96.6
Massachusetts   0-4 83.5 82.7 83.4 83.2
             
Indep. Averages     98.0 97.1 98.4 97.8
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 0-0 1-2 92.1 94.6 94.0 93.6
Ohio U 0-0 2-1 90.2 92.0 91.0 91.1
Buffalo 0-0 1-2 83.2 85.9 85.2 84.8
Akron 0-0 1-2 82.6 86.3 82.4 83.8
Kent St. 0-0 1-2 81.5 82.9 82.3 82.2
Bowling Green 0-0 0-3 80.4 80.9 81.1 80.8
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 3-0 99.6 99.6 101.3 100.2
Western Michigan 0-0 1-2 99.2 97.4 100.5 99.0
Eastern Michigan 0-0 2-0 94.6 94.2 94.5 94.4
Central Michigan 0-0 2-1 90.9 91.3 91.1 91.1
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-1 89.4 89.3 89.8 89.5
Ball St. 0-0 2-1 78.8 81.2 80.4 80.1
             
MAC Averages     88.5 89.6 89.5 89.2
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 2-2 105.0 103.4 105.1 104.5
Boise St. 1-0 2-1 101.4 99.3 100.8 100.5
Wyoming 0-0 1-2 95.8 93.7 94.4 94.6
Air Force 0-0 1-1 93.7 94.1 94.0 93.9
New Mexico 0-1 1-2 91.6 91.8 92.1 91.8
Utah St. 0-0 1-2 86.0 85.1 85.0 85.4
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 3-0 103.1 103.0 104.2 103.4
Hawaii 0-0 2-1 88.6 90.2 88.6 89.1
U N L V 0-0 1-1 87.5 90.4 87.9 88.6
Fresno St. 0-0 1-2 88.6 87.0 88.8 88.2
Nevada 0-0 0-3 84.0 87.1 86.0 85.7
San Jose St. 0-0 1-3 83.3 82.9 82.5 82.9
             
MWC Averages     92.4 92.3 92.4 92.4
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 0-0 3-0 128.4 125.0 129.1 127.5
Stanford 0-1 1-2 116.6 115.2 115.8 115.9
Washington St. 1-0 3-0 117.0 114.3 116.1 115.8
Oregon 0-0 3-0 114.3 110.8 113.6 112.9
California 0-0 3-0 101.4 98.9 99.6 100.0
Oregon St. 0-1 1-3 92.6 92.6 91.1 92.1
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 1-0 3-0 120.8 120.3 120.9 120.7
Colorado 0-0 3-0 113.1 111.1 110.9 111.7
U C L A 0-0 2-1 109.8 109.0 109.5 109.4
Utah 0-0 3-0 106.6 108.7 107.0 107.4
Arizona St. 0-0 1-2 100.4 100.7 99.4 100.2
Arizona 0-0 2-1 100.0 99.0 98.4 99.1
             
Pac-12 Averages     110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 3-0 116.7 117.9 116.8 117.1
Florida 1-0 1-1 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
Kentucky 1-0 3-0 113.0 111.5 112.7 112.4
Tennessee 0-1 2-1 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
Vanderbilt 0-0 3-0 110.9 109.2 110.2 110.1
S. Carolina 1-1 2-1 107.6 106.8 106.6 107.0
Missouri 0-1 1-2 98.4 95.9 97.2 97.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 0-0 3-0 132.2 127.6 131.0 130.3
Auburn 0-0 2-1 122.7 120.6 122.5 121.9
L S U 0-1 2-1 115.5 113.7 116.2 115.1
Mississippi St. 1-0 3-0 112.1 112.7 112.5 112.4
Arkansas 0-0 1-1 106.7 106.2 106.5 106.5
Ole Miss 0-0 2-1 105.9 104.4 104.1 104.8
Texas A&M 0-0 2-1 104.8 102.7 103.4 103.6
             
SEC Averages     112.4 111.0 111.8 111.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 1-0 2-1 98.0 95.7 98.3 97.3
Troy 1-0 2-1 93.7 93.8 92.9 93.5
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-1 89.3 90.9 91.0 90.4
N. Mexico St. 0-1 1-2 87.1 84.7 86.6 86.1
S. Alabama 0-0 1-2 84.5 87.4 84.7 85.5
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-2 84.2 85.5 84.0 84.6
Idaho 0-0 1-2 83.2 85.3 84.1 84.2
Georgia St. 0-0 0-2 83.0 82.2 82.8 82.7
UL-Monroe 0-0 0-2 81.2 81.7 79.8 80.9
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-2 79.9 81.2 79.5 80.2
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-1 73.5 74.9 75.2 74.6
Texas St. 0-1 1-2 73.2 76.0 72.2 73.8
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.2 85.0 84.3 84.5

Conference Ratings
Thanks to Wake Forest, Virgnia Tech, Syracuse, and North Carolina State improving with non-conference wins, while Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri sunk after so-so non-conference performances, the ACC overtook the SEC by a tiny bit for top conference. There are only three points separating the Power 5 conferences after three weeks of the season.

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.5 111.3 111.9 111.9
2 SEC 112.4 111.0 111.8 111.7
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 110.1 108.8 109.3 109.4
5 BIG TEN 109.0 108.9 108.7 108.9
6 INDEP. 98.0 97.1 98.4 97.8
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.8
8 MWC 92.4 92.3 92.4 92.4
9 MAC 88.5 89.6 89.5 89.2
10 Sun Belt 84.2 85.0 84.3 84.5
11 CUSA 83.6 85.4 84.4 84.5

Bowl Projections Debut in October

September 11, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 14-16, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:54 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

PiRate Ratings Spreads
September 14-16        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. New Mexico 12.9 10.4 11.8
Temple Massachusetts 14.2 15.6 14.5
South Florida Illinois 20.5 17.3 22.9
UTEP Arizona -23.3 -17.6 -20.1
South Carolina Kentucky 0.5 1.2 0.2
Marshall Kent St. 4.6 4.9 4.7
Boston College Notre Dame -8.1 -5.1 -8.8
Virginia Connecticut 16.2 13.0 17.0
Michigan Air Force 26.8 25.4 25.7
UAB Coastal Carolina -8.3 -3.8 -8.0
Miami (O) Cincinnati 4.5 4.3 5.2
Penn St. Georgia St. 45.2 43.7 46.0
Akron Iowa St. -15.1 -12.3 -15.7
Old Dominion North Carolina -16.3 -12.1 -14.3
Pittsburgh Oklahoma St. -9.8 -8.6 -12.3
Minnesota Middle Tennessee 17.5 17.2 16.2
Indiana Florida Int’l. 26.8 26.6 26.2
Memphis UCLA -2.3 -2.3 -1.4
Nebraska Northern Illinois 20.7 22.3 19.7
Duke Baylor 13.2 9.2 11.7
Ohio U Kansas 4.0 2.8 5.7
Wake Forest Utah St. 21.0 21.4 21.2
Louisville Clemson -8.2 -5.5 -7.1
Syracuse Central Michigan 18.3 16.3 17.0
East Carolina Virginia Tech -28.3 -26.4 -28.7
BYU Wisconsin -17.3 -14.4 -15.1
Missouri Purdue 7.8 2.8 5.7
Iowa North Texas 33.3 31.3 33.0
Texas A&M UL-Lafayette 23.9 19.9 22.7
Northwestern Bowling Green 31.2 28.8 30.2
Oklahoma Tulane 36.1 33.4 36.6
Florida Tennessee 6.4 7.7 7.5
TCU SMU 19.0 16.1 18.6
Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 11.5 7.8 12.1
Ohio St. Army 36.2 33.7 34.5
Washington St. Oregon St. 27.0 24.1 27.6
Texas St. Appalachian St. -25.8 -19.6 -27.4
Alabama Colorado St. 32.1 28.7 31.2
Toledo Tulsa -0.4 0.4 1.3
Western Michigan Idaho 21.4 15.8 22.0
UL-Monroe Southern Miss. -2.8 -3.9 -4.3
Wyoming Oregon -9.5 -8.6 -9.7
Mississippi St. LSU -10.3 -7.9 -10.6
Central Florida Georgia Tech -7.5 -2.9 -4.6
Vanderbilt Kansas St. -1.6 -3.0 -3.2
Houston Rice 26.1 23.8 25.2
New Mexico St. Troy -3.5 -6.3 -3.4
Texas Tech Arizona St. 5.3 4.6 5.0
USC Texas 13.0 11.3 13.2
Utah San Jose St. 23.9 27.2 24.9
Washington Fresno St. 43.8 41.5 44.5
California Ole Miss -4.0 -5.2 -4.3
San Diego St. Stanford -15.0 -12.1 -12.8
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Auburn Mercer 40
Georgia Samford 26
UTSA Southern 24
West Virginia Delaware St. 55
North Carolina St. Furman 31
Colorado Northern Colorado 39
Ball St. Tennessee Tech 20
Rutgers Morgan St. 36
Charlotte N.C. A&T -2
Buffalo Colgate 7
Nevada Idaho St. 25
Arkansas St. Ark.-Pine Bluff 51
South Alabama Alabama A&M 28
Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman 15

The Big 12 Arises Like The Phoenix
A week after Texas and Baylor suffered devastating losses, the Big 12 returned from the dead with some major victories. Oklahoma went to the Giant Horseshoe and toyed with Ohio State for most of the evening. The Sooners looked about as effective on offense as they looked back in 2008, when they had Sam Bradford, Chris Brown, Demarco Murray, Juaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham. But, it was the defense that really looked dominant. Oklahoma’s effort Saturday night reminded us more of their 2001 team that featured Tommie Harris, Rocky Calmus, Derrick Strait, and Roy Williams.

TCU’s defense totally shut down Arkansas in the Horned Frogs win at Fayetteville. TCU’s defense held Arkansas to 13 first downs and 267 total yards; more importantly, they held them to just 7 points.

Oklahoma State won on the road at South Alabama, which doesn’t sound like a big deal, but the Jaguars have a history of sneaking up on Power 5 conference teams.

Baylor lost once again, and Iowa State just missed against Iowa, while Texas played much better in their drubbing of San Jose St. The Longhorns get a chance to redeem themselves for the Maryland debacle when they venture to the LA Coliseum to take on USC this week. If UT keeps this game close, then watch out for the ‘Horns in Big 12 Conference play. It is a transition process into Coach Tom Herman’s offense, but Herman’s teams find a way to win, and Texas will win more than they did last year.

ACC Tilt Highlights Top Games This Week
Following Clemson’s defensive gem against Auburn, the Tigers must now face the reigning Heisman Trophy winner on his turf. Clemson’s game at Louisville tops this week’s schedule. Louisville has the horses to do to CU what they did to Florida State last year, but we believe Coach Dabo Swinney will come up with another brilliant game plan to slow down the Cardinal attack. The issue is whether the Clemson offense has enough to get to about 27 points, because even when you slow down the ‘Ville, you might still give up 24 points.

Clemson’s big rival has a big game this week. South Carolina hosts Kentucky. USC already owns a conference win and can take a major step forward toward competing with Georgia for the East Division flag. Kentucky has not looked up to the standards we thought they had the potential to be, performing so-so in wins over Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky.

Florida hosts Tennessee in the Swamp, and the Gators got a week off after their no-show event against Michigan. Meanwhile, Tennessee is playing its third game in 12 days and has suffered a couple of injury losses. The Vols’ offense has been at the extremes. On one drive, they look like Louisville, and on the next drive they look like a college version of the New York Jets or San Francisco 49ers. Florida was very consistent offensively against Michigan–they looked like the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on every drive against the Wolverines. Expect the Gators to play near their maximum capacity in this game. They cannot start 0-2 with a now 11-game schedule and have much chance to recover to much more than 7-4 and possibly just 6-5. A Tennessee win puts the Big Orange into the contender category in the mediocre East Division.

LSU travels north to take on an under-the-radar Mississippi State team that has circled this game on their schedule since Spring Ball. Miss State has just one win over the Tigers in the 16 games in this century, and that one win came at Baton Rouge. The last time the Bulldogs bested their Bayou Rivals in Starkville was 1999. The winner of this game has to be taken seriously as a top contender to Alabama.

Kansas State looks to prove that it belongs in the discussion in the Big 12, and the Wildcats have a tough game at Vanderbilt this week. The Commodores looked similar to Stanford and Michigan in their opening two wins, but to beat a top 15 team is a lot different than beating Middle Tennessee and Alabama A&M. This game actually features the top two passing offenses in Raw QB Ratings, as Kyle Shurmur has Vandy at #1, while Jesse Ertz has Kansas State at #2. This looks to be the best Kansas State offense since the great 1998 team almost made it to the National Championship Game.

The previously mentioned Texas-USC game should be interesting, but the Trojans should eventually win this one by two touchdowns or more. However, if the Longhorns can control the clock offensively, their questionable defense can hold on long enough to make this game close enough to be undecided until the fourth quarter.

The late game on the Coast has Stanford playing at San Diego State. If the Aztecs are to challenge for the Group of 5’s top spot and the New Year’s 6 Bowl, they must win this game. Stanford will be a tough out for the hometown team, but Rocky Long has SDSU looking like a team capable of running the table if they get past the Cardinal.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
This happens frequently in September. A top team is upset by another team, but the top team still rates ahead of the team that beat them. That’s the liability of predictive ratings, and the strength of retrodictive ratings. We have three predictive ratings–the regular PiRate, the PiRate Mean, and the PiRate Bias. We also have one set of PiRate Retrodictive Ratings.

If you need a primer, predictive ratings take what the teams have done so far and tries to predict what they will do next week. So, if State U has a predictive rating of 113.5 and plays Tech with a rating of 110.2, then before home field advantage (and road team disadvantage) are factored in, State is expected to beat Tech by 3.3 points. Let’s say the game is at State, and our special Pirate formula shows State to have a 3.2 point home field advantage for this game. It would then be quite easy to see that State should beat teach by 6.5 points.

Our retrodictive rating does not try to predict the outcomes of the next week’s slate of games. It is only concerned with what the teams have done. If State and Tech were to have the same Retro Ratings as their predictive ratings, this would not indicate that State should win by 6.5 points. It only means that to date, State has been about 3.3 points better in their results than Tech has been (no home field advantage used because this rating does not predict outcomes).

Why are we bringing this up? Simple. Ohio State is still number two in our predictive ratings. Oklahoma is behind the Buckeyes. In our Retrodictive Ratings, Ohio State fell quite a bit, just like Florida State did after losing to Alabama.

How can our predictive ratings show Ohio State to still be number two? It is a case of methodology. Our updates to our Predictive Ratings are rather conservative, with the Mean Rating being the most conservative, and the Bias being the least conservative, but still conservative. Remember, our predictive ratings are only looking forward and not backward. It is easier to think in terms of a major upset, like when Ole Miss beat Alabama two consecutive seasons. These two wins did not jump Ole Miss over the Tide. In a similar manner, when LSU beat Alabama during the regular season in 2011, Alabama stayed ahead of LSU in the ratings. When they met again in the National Championship Game, Alabama was the favorite, and they won 21-0.

We will lead with our Retrodictive Ratings First–We have put the rating numbers in this week to show you the difference between these ratings and the Predictive Ratings.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Retro
1 Alabama 127.2
2 Clemson 125.8
3 Washington 124.9
4 Oklahoma 124.6
5 USC 124.1
6 Penn St. 123.8
7 LSU 122.3
8 Ohio St. 120.8
9 Oklahoma St. 120.4
10 Wisconsin 118.8
11 Michigan 118.6
12 Miami (Fla) 116.6
13 Louisville 116.5
14 Florida St. 116.4
15 Auburn 115.9
16 Virginia Tech 115.6
17 Stanford 114.5
18 Kansas St. 114.0
19 Georgia 113.9
20 Tennessee 113.1
21 TCU 112.7
22 Washington St. 112.4
23 Utah 112.2
24 Iowa 111.9
25 Colorado 111.8
26 Florida 111.5
27 Houston 111.3
28 Mississippi St. 110.8
29 South Florida 110.3
30 San Diego St. 110.0
31 Georgia Tech 109.5
32 South Carolina 109.3
33 UCLA 109.1
34 Oregon 108.9
35 Notre Dame 108.8
36 Vanderbilt 108.6
37 West Virginia 108.3
38 Minnesota 108.0
39 Boise St. 107.7
40 Michigan St. 107.0
41 Pittsburgh 106.7
42 Toledo 106.1
43 Texas A&M 104.8
44 Wake Forest 104.3
45 Nebraska 104.0
46 Maryland 103.8
47 Duke 103.7
48 Kentucky 103.7
49 North Carolina St. 103.1
50 Memphis 103.0
51 Northwestern 101.8
52 Navy 101.6
53 Ole Miss 101.5
54 California 101.3
55 Tulsa 101.1
56 Texas 101.0
57 Arkansas 100.7
58 Air Force 100.5
59 Western Michigan 100.1
60 Colorado St. 100.0
61 Texas Tech 99.8
62 BYU 99.3
63 Appalachian St. 98.7
64 North Carolina 98.4
65 Army 98.1
66 SMU 97.9
67 Central Florida 97.7
68 Temple 97.5
69 Boston College 97.3
70 Indiana 97.1
71 Old Dominion 96.8
72 Western Kentucky 96.7
73 Troy 96.5
74 Arkansas St. 96.4
75 UTSA 96.2
76 Iowa St. 96.0
77 Purdue 95.9
78 Wyoming 95.7
79 Louisiana Tech 95.4
80 Illinois 95.3
81 Missouri 95.2
82 Eastern Michigan 95.0
83 Central Michigan 94.8
84 Arizona St. 94.4
85 Arizona 94.2
86 Middle Tennessee 94.0
87 Northern Illinois 93.8
88 Ohio 93.6
89 Syracuse 93.5
90 Tulane 93.5
91 Baylor 93.3
92 Southern Miss. 93.2
93 Oregon St. 93.1
94 New Mexico 92.9
95 Hawaii 92.7
96 Utah St. 92.2
97 Idaho 91.5
98 Cincinnati 91.2
99 Miami (O) 91.1
100 Virginia 90.9
101 UL-Lafayette 90.7
102 Coastal Carolina 90.0
103 Akron 89.6
104 Marshall 89.6
105 Nevada 89.3
106 New Mexico St. 88.8
107 Rutgers 88.5
108 Ball St. 88.3
109 South Alabama 88.0
110 Fresno St. 87.9
111 Georgia Southern 87.4
112 North Texas 87.1
113 Connecticut 86.6
114 UL-Monroe 86.3
115 San Jose St. 86.1
116 Kent St. 85.9
117 Kansas 85.5
118 Rice 85.2
119 Buffalo 84.9
120 UNLV 84.4
121 East Carolina 83.7
122 Georgia St. 83.6
123 Florida Int’l. 83.4
124 Bowling Green 83.0
125 Florida Atlantic 82.6
126 UTEP 82.1
127 UAB 80.5
128 Texas St. 79.1
129 Charlotte 77.5
130 Massachusetts 75.3

Our Regular Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.0 128.2 132.0 131.1
2 Ohio St. 129.4 126.6 128.7 128.2
3 Washington 128.9 125.3 129.7 128.0
4 Clemson 128.9 125.1 128.1 127.4
5 Oklahoma 127.7 125.4 128.6 127.2
6 Florida St. 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
7 Penn St. 126.2 124.0 126.9 125.7
8 Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.8 123.2
9 U S C 122.0 121.3 122.3 121.9
10 Oklahoma St. 121.6 120.3 123.2 121.7
11 L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
12 Wisconsin 121.1 117.2 119.4 119.3
13 Stanford 118.8 116.7 117.9 117.8
14 Miami 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
15 Louisville 117.7 116.6 118.0 117.4
16 Georgia 116.7 117.9 116.8 117.1
17 Michigan 117.1 116.4 116.3 116.6
18 Virginia Tech 116.2 115.8 116.6 116.2
19 Washington St. 116.8 114.0 115.9 115.6
20 Florida 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
21 Kansas St. 114.8 114.5 115.3 114.9
22 T C U 114.8 112.1 114.7 113.8
23 N. Carolina St. 113.4 113.1 113.1 113.2
24 Texas 112.0 113.0 112.0 112.4
25 Colorado 113.7 111.7 111.5 112.3
26 Georgia Tech 113.1 110.6 111.1 111.6
27 Iowa 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
28 Tennessee 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
29 Kentucky 111.3 109.8 110.8 110.6
30 Notre Dame 111.2 109.3 111.3 110.6
31 Oregon 111.1 107.9 110.2 109.7
32 U C L A 110.2 109.2 109.7 109.7
33 West Virginia 109.1 109.9 109.1 109.4
34 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
35 South Florida 109.5 107.7 110.7 109.3
36 Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.3 108.7
37 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.7 108.0 108.5
38 Duke 109.5 108.1 107.9 108.5
39 N. Carolina 109.4 108.1 107.9 108.5
40 S. Carolina 108.8 108.0 108.0 108.3
41 Minnesota 108.0 108.0 107.5 107.8
42 Mississippi St. 107.0 107.6 107.4 107.3
43 Arkansas 106.7 106.2 106.5 106.5
44 Ole Miss 107.4 106.0 105.8 106.4
45 Utah 105.4 107.9 105.7 106.3
46 Maryland 105.6 107.7 105.7 106.3
47 Syracuse 106.7 105.1 105.8 105.9
48 Indiana 105.0 105.1 105.4 105.2
49 Memphis 104.9 103.9 105.3 104.7
50 Wake Forest 105.1 104.4 104.5 104.6
51 Nebraska 104.1 105.7 103.3 104.4
52 Texas A&M 105.1 102.7 103.7 103.8
53 Houston 104.2 103.0 103.8 103.7
54 Central Florida 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
55 Colo. State 103.9 102.5 103.8 103.4
56 Tulsa 102.8