College Football Preview–December 12, 2015

There is just one regular season FBS game remaining, and it’s the Army-Navy game this week to be played at Franklin Financial Field in Philadelphia.

 

Because our ratings rely on the results of all teams, we cannot post our bowl predictions until this game is finished. Our spreads of all 40 bowl games/playoff games will be posted after this game concludes.

This Week’s Game
Opponent	Opponent	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Saturday, December 12
Army	Navy	-27.8	-24.3	-27.6
Game to be played in Philadelphia

PiRate Ratings For This Week

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Clemson
3	Oklahoma
4	Ohio St.
5	Michigan St.
6	Stanford
7	Notre Dame
8	Iowa
9	Florida St.
10	TCU
11	Ole Miss
12	North Carolina
13	Houston
14	Oklahoma St.
15	LSU
16	Oregon
17	Baylor
18	Florida
19	Northwestern
20	Michigan
21	Utah
22	USC
23	Tennessee
24	Wisconsin
25	Georgia
26	Navy
27	Memphis
28	Arkansas
29	Western Kentucky
30	Bowling Green
31	Mississippi St.
32	UCLA
33	Toledo
34	Temple
35	Texas A&M
36	BYU
37	California
38	Pittsburgh
39	West Virginia
40	Miami (Fla.)
41	Washington
42	South Florida
43	Washington St.
44	Appalachian St.
45	San Diego St.
46	Texas Tech
47	Louisville
48	Penn St.
49	North Carolina St.
50	Auburn
51	Arizona St.
52	Western Michigan
53	Boise St.
54	Virginia Tech
55	Cincinnati
56	Arkansas St.
57	Nebraska
58	Kansas St.
59	Southern Miss.
60	Indiana
61	Georgia Southern
62	Marshall
63	Duke
64	Texas
65	Northern Illinois
66	Air Force
67	Minnesota
68	Louisiana Tech
69	Illinois
70	Arizona
71	Central Michigan
72	Ohio
73	Georgia Tech
74	Utah St.
75	Connecticut
76	Missouri
77	East Carolina
78	Middle Tennessee
79	Virginia
80	Iowa St.
81	South Carolina
82	Vanderbilt
83	Akron
84	Tulsa
85	Maryland
86	Colorado St.
87	Syracuse
88	Georgia St.
89	Kentucky
90	New Mexico
91	Colorado
92	San Jose St.
93	Rutgers
94	Boston College
95	Wake Forest
96	Nevada
97	Buffalo
98	Oregon St.
99	Purdue
100	South Alabama
101	Troy
102	Florida Int’l.
103	Ball St.
104	Florida Atlantic
105	Rice
106	SMU
107	Idaho
108	Old Dominion
109	Massachusetts
110	UNLV
111	UTEP
112	Louisiana-Lafayette
113	Fresno St.
114	Tulane
115	Kent St.
116	Miami (O)
117	Texas St.
118	UTSA
119	Kansas
120	New Mexico St.
121	Hawaii
122	Wyoming
123	Louisiana-Monroe
124	Army
125	North Texas
126	Charlotte
127	Eastern Michigan
128	Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	131.5	129.1	131.4	130.7
2	Oklahoma	130.2	126.5	130.9	129.2
3	Ohio St.	129.0	124.6	129.8	127.8
4	Stanford	124.5	121.7	124.9	123.7
5	Ole Miss	124.7	120.2	123.9	122.9
6	Clemson	121.8	122.6	122.0	122.1
7	Baylor	122.9	118.8	122.7	121.5
8	North Carolina	121.1	121.4	120.7	121.1
9	TCU	123.1	115.6	124.0	120.9
10	Notre Dame	121.2	118.9	120.9	120.3
11	Arkansas	121.3	116.4	120.8	119.5
12	Michigan St.	119.7	117.2	119.7	118.9
13	Tennessee	120.1	116.2	120.2	118.8
14	LSU	119.8	116.4	119.4	118.5
15	UCLA	120.5	114.8	118.9	118.1
16	USC	119.7	115.0	118.7	117.8
17	Florida St.	117.2	118.4	117.1	117.6
18	Oregon	118.6	113.3	118.8	116.9
19	Utah	118.1	112.3	116.3	115.6
20	Mississippi St.	116.5	113.1	116.5	115.4
21	Washington	115.9	112.6	115.8	114.8
22	Michigan	115.8	113.0	115.3	114.7
23	Texas A&M	116.4	112.9	114.4	114.6
24	Georgia	116.1	111.2	115.4	114.2
25	Oklahoma St.	115.1	111.9	114.7	113.9
26	Florida	114.5	111.4	114.4	113.4
27	California	115.0	109.7	114.1	112.9
28	West Virginia	114.9	109.2	114.3	112.8
29	Arizona St.	114.4	109.5	114.0	112.6
30	Iowa	111.7	113.3	112.5	112.5
31	Houston	109.8	115.2	112.0	112.3
32	Auburn	113.6	110.4	112.3	112.1
33	Wisconsin	111.6	111.2	110.8	111.2
34	Bowling Green	108.5	113.3	111.6	111.1
35	Virginia Tech	110.7	110.4	110.8	110.6
36	Western Kentucky	109.5	110.4	111.2	110.4
37	North Carolina St.	109.4	110.4	107.9	109.2
38	BYU	108.1	108.3	109.3	108.6
39	Louisville	108.0	109.5	107.9	108.5
40	Temple	106.9	109.9	108.4	108.4
41	Memphis	107.7	108.8	108.0	108.2
42	Pittsburgh	107.5	108.1	107.8	107.8
43	Nebraska	108.5	106.9	107.8	107.7
44	Georgia Tech	109.1	106.5	107.5	107.7
45	Washington St.	108.5	105.1	109.3	107.6
46	Navy	105.9	109.9	107.0	107.6
47	San Diego St.	105.7	109.8	106.9	107.5
48	Miami	106.1	106.7	107.2	106.7
49	Northwestern	106.4	106.6	106.6	106.5
50	Boise St.	107.3	105.1	107.2	106.5
51	Texas	107.5	103.4	107.3	106.1
52	South Carolina	107.3	104.2	106.3	105.9
53	Arizona	107.9	102.4	106.8	105.7
54	Texas Tech	108.1	100.4	108.3	105.6
55	Missouri	106.9	103.4	105.6	105.3
56	Toledo	103.7	105.0	104.9	104.5
57	South Florida	102.1	107.8	103.4	104.4
58	Minnesota	105.1	103.6	104.2	104.3
59	Western Michigan	102.6	103.8	104.0	103.5
60	Penn St.	103.8	103.3	103.0	103.4
61	Colorado	105.3	100.5	103.7	103.2
62	Kansas St.	106.0	97.5	105.7	103.1
63	Cincinnati	102.0	103.9	103.3	103.1
64	Duke	103.0	103.0	102.8	102.9
65	Illinois	104.1	101.9	102.8	102.9
66	Virginia	102.7	101.8	103.1	102.5
67	Indiana	101.0	101.3	101.3	101.2
68	Boston College	100.3	102.6	98.8	100.6
69	Kentucky	101.8	98.4	100.1	100.1
70	Air Force	98.7	102.1	99.1	100.0
71	Southern Mississippi	98.8	100.9	99.6	99.8
72	Iowa St.	100.4	96.3	100.1	98.9
73	Georgia Southern	97.2	100.0	99.1	98.8
74	Louisiana Tech	98.3	98.6	99.1	98.7
75	Vanderbilt	100.2	96.0	99.4	98.5
76	Marshall	97.9	98.5	97.6	98.0
77	Appalachian St.	96.4	99.5	97.9	97.9
78	Northern Illinois	96.0	99.8	96.9	97.6
79	Wake Forest	96.5	99.3	96.1	97.3
80	Utah St.	97.6	97.8	96.0	97.1
81	Arkansas St.	95.2	97.0	97.5	96.6
82	Middle Tennessee	96.6	96.2	96.7	96.5
83	East Carolina	94.7	98.5	95.6	96.3
84	Syracuse	95.1	97.9	95.0	96.0
85	Purdue	95.1	94.1	93.4	94.2
86	Maryland	94.5	93.4	94.4	94.1
87	Connecticut	91.0	95.5	92.3	92.9
88	San Jose St.	92.2	94.2	92.2	92.9
89	Colorado St.	92.8	93.3	92.3	92.8
90	New Mexico	92.3	93.4	91.8	92.5
91	Central Michigan	90.3	94.2	91.7	92.1
92	Rutgers	93.5	90.8	91.2	91.8
93	Tulsa	89.8	93.9	90.9	91.5
94	Nevada	89.7	93.6	90.0	91.1
95	Ohio	88.8	93.2	90.9	91.0
96	Akron	86.1	92.9	88.4	89.1
97	Georgia St.	86.2	87.9	87.6	87.2
98	Oregon St.	88.7	85.3	86.6	86.9
99	Florida Atlantic	84.1	87.5	84.9	85.5
100	Troy	84.2	85.5	84.8	84.8
101	Florida International	83.8	86.2	83.9	84.6
102	SMU	83.3	86.9	82.9	84.4
103	Massachusetts	82.6	86.1	83.4	84.0
104	Buffalo	81.1	86.3	81.7	83.0
105	Tulane	82.2	84.7	80.9	82.6
106	UNLV	81.9	83.6	81.9	82.5
107	Fresno St.	81.5	84.2	79.7	81.8
108	Army	78.1	85.6	79.4	81.0
109	Wyoming	80.0	81.6	79.2	80.3
110	Rice	78.6	81.4	78.4	79.5
111	Ball St.	78.7	80.7	78.9	79.4
112	UTEP	78.4	81.0	78.2	79.2
113	Old Dominion	76.7	80.6	76.4	77.9
114	Kent St.	77.1	79.0	77.4	77.8
115	Hawaii	77.9	79.0	76.3	77.7
116	UT-San Antonio	76.8	79.2	77.1	77.7
117	Miami (O)	75.4	80.3	76.3	77.3
118	UL-Lafayette	76.6	79.1	76.3	77.3
119	South Alabama	75.0	79.8	75.9	76.9
120	Idaho	74.1	79.1	75.5	76.2
121	Central Florida	74.9	77.8	74.6	75.8
122	Texas St.	73.2	75.6	72.8	73.9
123	Eastern Michigan	71.5	77.6	71.7	73.6
124	North Texas	72.4	75.8	72.2	73.5
125	New Mexico St.	72.6	73.8	72.0	72.8
126	Kansas	75.5	68.7	72.9	72.4
127	UL-Monroe	71.4	71.4	71.7	71.5
128	Charlotte	67.5	69.1	67.0	67.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	115.1	111.4	114.3	113.6
2	Pac-12	113.1	108.5	112.3	111.3
3	Big 12	110.4	104.8	110.1	108.4
4	ACC	107.8	108.5	107.5	107.9
5	Big Ten	107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
6	Indep.	102.5	104.3	103.2	103.3
7	AAC	95.9	99.4	96.6	97.3
8	MWC	91.5	93.1	91.1	91.9
9	MAC	87.9	91.7	89.1	89.5
10	CUSA	86.1	88.1	86.3	86.8
11	SBC	82.0	84.4	82.8	83.1

 

Bowl Pairings

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	San Jose St. *	vs.	Georgia St.
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Arizona *
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Utah	vs.	BYU
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio	vs.	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	vs.	Utah St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Temple	vs.	Toledo
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Boise St.	vs.	Northern Illinois
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Bowling Green	vs.	Georgia Southern
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Western Michigan
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Cincinnati	vs.	San Diego St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	Connecticut	vs.	Marshall
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami	vs.	Washington St.
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Washington *	vs.	Southern Miss.
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC	Tulsa *	vs.	Virginia Tech
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Nebraska	vs.	UCLA
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	vs.	Navy
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Central Michigan *	vs.	Minnesota
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	California *	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina	vs.	Baylor
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Colorado St. *	vs.	Nevada
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	vs.	Auburn
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	vs.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Louisville	vs.	Texas A&M
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Florida St.	vs.	Houston
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Alabama	vs.	Michigan St.
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Clemson	vs.	Oklahoma
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	vs.	USC
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan	vs.	Florida
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Ohio St.	vs.	Notre Dame
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Georgia
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	Oregon
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	vs.	Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Michigan St.	vs.	Oklahoma
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

FCS Playoffs

2nd Round
Jacksonville St.	41	ot
Chattanooga	35
Charleston Sou.	14
Citadel	6
Colgate	44
James Madison	38
Sam Houston	34
McNeese St.	29
North Dakota St.	37
Montana	6
Northern Iowa	29
Portland St.	17
Richmond	48
William & Mary	13
Illinois St.	36
Western Illinois	19

 

Quarterfinal Round Games

Quarterfinals	D. 11-13	All times ET
@ Illinois St.	10-2	D.11 7:30 PM
Richmond	9-3	ESPN3
@ Sam Houston	10-3	D.12 8PM
Colgate	9-4	No TV
@ Jacksonville St.	11-1	D.11 8 PM
Charleston Southern	10-2	ESPN2
@ North Dakota St.	10-2	D.13 12 AM
Northern Iowa	9-4	ESPN

 

 

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College Football Preview: October 1-3, 2015

Bowl Me Over
As Autumn leaves begin to turn orange and red, it’s time for the PiRate Ratings to get into the playoff and bowl talk. Unlike most sites where experts give out bowl projections, we try to look forward to the remaining schedules and place teams according to their recent form holding true the rest of the year.

For example, over the weekend, both Ohio State and Michigan State for the second consecutive week appeared not to be as strong as they were supposed to be. Meanwhile, Michigan looked like the Wolverines of the Bo Schembechler 1970’s. Thus, for this opening week, we are picking the Maize and Blue to run the table, knocking off both the Spartans and Buckeyes (both home games) to win the Big Ten title. With their lone loss coming at Utah, a team that looks strong enough to challenge UCLA and Stanford for the Pac-12 title, we have Jim Harbaugh’s team selected to occupy a playoff spot in our first edition; notice that this differs from the PiRate Rating playoff ratings, which simply takes the top four PiRate Rating teams and apply it to the Playoff rules.

For those readers that need a refresher course on the 2015-16 College Football Playoff format, there are four teams in the playoff. The four teams are seeded one through four, with the top seed earning a bid to either the Cotton or Orange Bowl, whichever is more advantageous to that team. The number one seed plays the number four seed, while the number two seed plays the number three seed in the Cotton or Orange Bowl. The winners of the Cotton and Orange Bowl advance to the National Championship Game, which will be played in Glendale, Arizona, on January 11.
The two playoff games plus four other top-tier bowls comprise what is called “The New Year’s Six” bowls. These four other bowls not in the playoffs include the Peach, Sugar, Fiesta, and Rose Bowls. Among the eight teams playing in these four bowls, a guarantee has been made that at least one team not from one of the Power conferences will receive an invitation. The Power conferences are the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC. The non power conferences, known as “The Group of 5,” are the American Athletic, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, and Sun Belt Conference.

After the New Year’s Six Bowls are filled, the remaining 33 bowls select teams based on contractual agreements with conferences. There was supposed to be one additional bowl this year, in Tucson, Arizona, but lack of a title sponsor and other issues forced this bowl to try again next year.

With 39 total bowls plus the National Championship Game, 78 teams will play in the postseason. As of this writing, our crystal ball shows that exactly 78 teams will be bowl eligible this year. Our bowl projections follow our PiRate Ratings Spreads for this week’s games.

Exciting Games This Week
October usually means more conference games and less FBS versus FCS games (just two of those this week). Early October presents so many games of interest, because so many teams finish September looking like contenders. By the middle of this month, only a quarter of those teams in contention for conference championships this now will still be in contention. Thus, you get a high number of meaningful and/or interesting contests. Here are the games we like best this week.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech–Noon EDT on ESPN3: The ACC Coastal Division race is wide open with six of the seven teams closely matched. Pittsburgh had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Lane Stadium, while Virginia Tech took it on the chin at East Carolina last week. Rumors are running rampant that Hokies’ coach Frank Beamer is now firmly on a hot seat, and calling the ECU loss just an “exhibition game” did not sit well with the fans.

South Carolina at Missouri–Noon EDT on WatchESPN: This could be a bowl elimination game. South Carolina is already 0-2 in the SEC and out of the East Division race. Missouri lost at Kentucky last week, and a home loss to the Gamecocks could send the Tigers crashing to seven or eight losses.

Iowa at Wisconsin–Noon EDT on ESPN: The Big Ten conference races begin this week, and the West Division is wide open. Wisconsin appears to be a little weaker than last season, while Iowa is off to a brilliant 4-0 start, but against a mostly untested slate of opponents. A road win would validate the Hawkeyes, while Badger win would simply give UW a one-game lead in the standings with both teams still in the race.

Minnesota at Northwestern–Noon EDT on Big Ten Network: We could say the same thing about every Big Ten game in week one of conference play. Northwestern struggled in a narrow win over Ball State last week, while Minnesota was very lucky to escape with a home win over Ohio. NU owns a win over Stanford and a road win against Duke, so the Wildcats have a resume good enough to stay in the playoff race if they can continue to win. The Gophers look like a team that could be getting ready to drown in the lake. UM can make a statement by pulling off the upset, while NU could move into the Top 15 with an impressive win.

West Virginia at Oklahoma–Noon EDT on FoxSports 1: Two 3-0 ranked teams square off in the conference opener for both. We are high on the Sooners so far, and an impressive double-digit win in this game may propel OU above TCU and Baylor in the minds of some on the Selection Committee. A WVU upset in Norman could send the Mountaineers to Baylor at 5-0 two weeks later.

Houston at Tulsa–Noon EDT on CBSSN: If the season ended today, Houston would not be the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl choice among the Group of Five conferences. However, the Cougars may have the best shot of running the table of the five or six teams in contention. The Cougars, under first year head coach and former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman, have won at Louisville, and a win in Tulsa Saturday would leave UH with three future road games against weak competition. All the other tough games are at home. Don’t count the Golden Hurrican out in this one; they had an extra week to prepare after giving Oklahoma fits two weeks ago.

Air Force at Navy–3:30 PM EDT on CBSSN: Not much needs to be said here; it’s a service academy rivalry, but a Midshipmen win would send Navy to South Bend next week at 4-0.

Alabama at Georgia–3:30 PM EDT on CBS: Alabama has not been an underdog since Tim Tebow was quarterbacking Florida. The Tide go to Athens this week as the underdog for the first time in 72 games! That 2009 underdog merely won that game by 19 points and then took the National Championship. This Alabama team does not have 28 future NFL draft picks like the 2009 National Champions. Georgia does not play Alabama in the regular season that often. The last time the Dogs beat the Tide was 2007, and UGA won the Sugar Bowl that year. The previous win before 2007 was in 2002, and UGA won the Sugar Bowl that year as well. If Georgia wins, Alabama then must win out to have any chance of making it to the SEC Championship Game. If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs can already start to smell an extra game down in Atlanta in early December.

Kansas State at Oklahoma State–4:00 PM EDT on FoxSports 1: The winner of this game stays undefeated and the dark horse team behind TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma.

Ole Miss at Florida–7:00 PM EDT on ESPN: After winning at Alabama, Ole Miss came out flat last week in an unspectacular home win over Vanderbilt, while Florida pulled out a last second thriller win over rival Tennessee. The Gators figure to be the team coming out a bit flat, and if the Rebels revert to form, they could leave Gainesville Saturday night firmly entrenched as one of the top four teams if not number one. If the Gators can pull off another big win, they should go to Baton Rouge in two weeks still undefeated. This game has major playoff repercussions for both teams.

Arkansas at Tennessee–7:00 PM EDT on ESPN2: This is almost assuredly a bowl elimination game. We can see no way that the loser of this game will finish better than 5-7, and even the winner of this game still faces a tough road ahead in what must be called the Disappointment Classic. Additionally, the losing coach in this game may be in serious trouble when they end up below .500 this year.

Arizona State at UCLA–7:30 PM EDT on Fox: Generally, the Pac-12 winner has an experienced at talented junior or senior quarterback leading the team. UCLA has a true freshman, but Josh Rosen’s field smarts may be more similar to Andrew Luck than a true freshman. Throw in one of the best coaches in Jim Mora, Jr., and the Bruins are definitely one of three teams capable of playing in the Cotton or Orange Bowl. Arizona State will come into this game out for blood after suffering a humiliating home loss to USC.

Notre Dame at Clemson–8:00 PM EDT on ABC: The last time an undefeated and highly-ranked Clemson team hosted another undefeated and highly-ranked opponent on the ABC Saturday night prime-time game, the Tigers were sky high as the nation watched one of the greatest pre-game rituals. Clemson then laid a huge egg in a 51-14 loss to Florida State. Notre Dame’s four wins don’t look all that impressive now that both Texas and Georgia Tech have proven to be mediocre, while the Irish’s other two wins (Virginia and Massachusetts) were no Picassos. Any of the next four teams on ND’s schedule could end their Playoff hopes for this season. If the Irish go 4-0 in October, they deserve to be one of the top four teams entering November.

Michigan at Maryland–8:00 PM EDT on Big Ten Network: This game interests us differently than the others here. Maryland is not interesting in and of themselves. After losing the opener at Utah, which now looks a lot better than it did in week one, Michigan has begun to look like the old power team of the decade between 1969 and 1978. The shutout of BYU was spectacular. But, can the Wolverines follow that up with a repeat on the road? If so, then the way the Big Two in the East are playing in the last two weeks, it would not surprise us if Jim Harbaugh can repeat what Bo Schembechler did in his first season in A2. November 22, 1969, was a dark day for fans from that state down south. What was considered the best Ohio State team ever, an unbeatable 8-0 team that destroyed everybody else on the schedule, fell to a heavily underdog Wolverine team.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Starting this week, we debut our new Retrodictive Ratings. These ratings are our version of a poll. We do not use them for comparing two teams with a power rating. This is simply a ranking of teams similar to the top 25 weekly poll. You will find our new Retrodictive Ranking at Ken Massey’s College Football Ranking Composite. Ken does a great job at this site, so we encourage you to support his efforts. http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Here is our first Retrodictive Ranking.

PiRate Retrodictive
1 Ohio St.
2 Ole Miss
3 Baylor
4 TCU
5 LSU
6 UCLA
7 Notre Dame
8 Georgia
9 Utah
10 Oklahoma
11 Alabama
12 USC
13 Texas A&M
14 Michigan St.
15 California
16 Clemson
17 Michigan
18 Stanford
19 West Virginia
20 Florida St.
21 North Carolina St.
22 Wisconsin
23 Mississippi St.
24 Florida
25 Boise St.
26 Oklahoma St.
27 Miami
28 Texas Tech
29 Oregon
30 Temple
31 Georgia Tech
32 Tennessee
33 Penn St.
34 Northwestern
35 Kentucky
36 Iowa
37 Duke
38 Minnesota
39 Virginia Tech
40 Arizona
41 Missouri
42 Arizona St.
43 North Carolina
44 Illinois
45 Memphis
46 Pittsburgh
47 Kansas St.
48 South Carolina
49 BYU
50 Arkansas
51 Auburn
52 Louisville
53 Nebraska
54 Houston
55 Washington
56 Colorado
57 Cincinnati
58 Western Kentucky
59 Boston College
60 Toledo
61 Louisiana Tech
62 Navy
63 Texas
64 Virginia
65 Bowling Green
66 Middle Tennessee
67 Indiana
68 Vanderbilt
69 Appalachian St.
70 Syracuse
71 Purdue
72 Air Force
73 Western Michigan
74 Washington St.
75 Georgia Southern
76 Wake Forest
77 Northern Illinois
78 San Diego St.
79 Rutgers
80 Utah St.
81 Ohio
82 Marshall
83 East Carolina
84 Iowa St.
85 San Jose St.
86 Tulsa
87 Colorado St.
88 Nevada
89 Hawaii
90 Oregon St.
91 Maryland
92 Florida International
93 Central Florida
94 New Mexico
95 South Florida
96 Massachusetts
97 Arkansas St.
98 SMU
99 Rice
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Southern Mississippi
103 Ball St.
104 Central Michigan
105 Buffalo
106 Fresno St.
107 Kent St.
108 UL-Lafayette
109 Connecticut
110 Army
111 Florida Atlantic
112 Texas St.
113 UTEP
114 UL-Monroe
115 UNLV
116 UT-San Antonio
117 North Texas
118 South Alabama
119 Old Dominion
120 Wyoming
121 Miami (O)
122 Kansas
123 Troy
124 Eastern Michigan
125 Georgia St.
126 New Mexico St.
127 Idaho
128 Charlotte

This Week’s PiRate Ratings (The Regular Ones)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	131.6	123.3	132.2	129.0
2	Ole Miss	128.6	122.0	126.8	125.8
3	Baylor	124.9	121.4	125.6	124.0
4	TCU	126.8	116.4	127.6	123.6
5	LSU	124.5	121.1	124.1	123.2
6	Alabama	123.9	122.0	123.1	123.0
7	USC	123.8	120.4	124.2	122.8
8	Notre Dame	123.5	119.7	124.0	122.4
9	UCLA	124.7	118.4	122.9	122.0
10	Utah	124.1	118.3	123.5	122.0
11	Georgia	124.5	116.8	123.8	121.7
12	Oklahoma	121.2	118.4	121.5	120.4
13	Texas A&M	120.3	118.2	119.2	119.2
14	Georgia Tech	119.9	116.8	119.3	118.7
15	Tennessee	119.9	115.6	119.5	118.3
16	Stanford	118.2	117.0	118.2	117.8
17	Michigan St.	118.3	114.2	118.1	116.9
18	California	117.8	113.0	118.2	116.3
19	Clemson	115.4	116.5	115.3	115.7
20	Oregon	118.0	110.2	117.2	115.1
21	Arkansas	117.5	111.4	116.5	115.1
22	Michigan	116.3	112.5	115.9	114.9
23	West Virginia	116.8	111.4	116.4	114.9
24	Florida St.	115.0	115.3	113.7	114.7
25	Auburn	115.4	112.9	114.3	114.2
26	North Carolina	113.4	113.4	113.0	113.3
27	Mississippi St.	114.4	110.3	114.5	113.1
28	Boise St.	114.6	109.2	114.3	112.7
29	Oklahoma St.	112.3	112.6	112.8	112.6
30	North Carolina St.	111.8	113.9	111.1	112.3
31	Wisconsin	111.5	112.4	110.7	111.5
32	Virginia Tech	112.2	109.6	112.4	111.4
33	Florida	112.2	108.9	111.8	111.0
34	Arizona St.	112.1	106.9	110.6	109.9
35	Arizona	112.8	105.6	110.6	109.7
36	Miami	109.0	109.9	109.5	109.5
37	Texas Tech	112.0	102.6	112.1	108.9
38	Louisville	107.9	110.4	108.1	108.8
39	Missouri	110.1	107.1	109.2	108.8
40	Temple	107.3	109.4	108.6	108.4
41	Nebraska	109.0	106.3	108.2	107.8
42	Minnesota	107.9	106.5	107.6	107.3
43	Penn St.	105.8	108.1	106.1	106.7
44	Texas	106.8	105.5	106.5	106.3
45	Duke	106.0	105.4	106.8	106.1
46	Kentucky	107.3	103.9	106.6	105.9
47	Iowa	104.5	107.7	105.4	105.9
48	Northwestern	105.7	106.5	105.4	105.9
49	South Carolina	107.5	104.0	106.0	105.8
50	BYU	105.9	103.8	107.0	105.6
51	Illinois	106.7	104.2	105.5	105.5
52	Memphis	104.9	104.8	106.3	105.3
53	Pittsburgh	103.7	105.8	104.9	104.8
54	Kansas St.	109.6	96.3	108.2	104.7
55	Colorado	106.0	101.7	105.3	104.3
56	Houston	100.3	108.3	103.0	103.9
57	Washington	104.0	102.0	104.5	103.5
58	Cincinnati	102.1	102.2	103.2	102.5
59	Western Kentucky	102.1	100.7	103.4	102.1
60	Boston College	100.8	105.5	99.1	101.8
61	Toledo	101.3	99.6	102.5	101.1
62	Louisiana Tech	101.1	98.3	102.0	100.5
63	Navy	98.1	101.3	98.5	99.3
64	Virginia	100.6	97.5	99.7	99.3
65	Bowling Green	97.0	101.1	98.8	99.0
66	Middle Tennessee	98.8	98.5	98.7	98.7
67	Vanderbilt	100.3	94.5	99.6	98.1
68	Appalachian St.	96.1	99.8	98.5	98.1
69	Syracuse	96.0	99.7	95.6	97.1
70	Purdue	97.4	97.0	95.7	96.7
71	Air Force	94.8	100.0	94.6	96.5
72	Indiana	95.6	97.6	95.4	96.2
73	Western Michigan	96.0	95.3	97.2	96.2
74	Washington St.	98.5	93.3	96.7	96.2
75	Georgia Southern	94.7	97.4	95.4	95.8
76	Wake Forest	94.7	98.8	93.7	95.7
77	Northern Illinois	94.6	97.4	95.0	95.7
78	San Diego St.	93.6	98.6	94.5	95.6
79	Rutgers	97.3	94.0	95.1	95.5
80	Utah St.	95.9	94.4	96.0	95.4
81	Ohio	93.2	97.6	95.0	95.3
82	Marshall	95.0	94.8	95.4	95.1
83	East Carolina	93.2	96.5	93.6	94.4
84	Iowa St.	95.7	92.4	94.6	94.2
85	San Jose St.	92.7	96.2	93.0	94.0
86	Tulsa	91.5	97.4	92.9	93.9
87	Colorado St.	94.7	92.6	93.1	93.5
88	Nevada	91.3	95.3	90.9	92.5
89	Hawaii	91.5	93.7	91.9	92.4
90	Oregon St.	93.0	91.4	92.1	92.2
91	Maryland	93.2	90.7	91.9	91.9
92	Florida International	89.5	91.9	91.3	90.9
93	Central Florida	89.2	92.7	90.6	90.8
94	New Mexico	90.7	91.6	90.1	90.8
95	South Florida	88.1	94.9	87.5	90.2
96	Massachusetts	87.4	90.8	89.0	89.1
97	Arkansas St.	88.9	88.4	89.6	89.0
98	SMU	87.6	91.4	87.7	88.9
99	Rice	86.6	91.0	87.2	88.3
100	Tulane	87.9	90.3	86.0	88.1
101	Akron	85.2	91.5	86.8	87.8
102	Southern Mississippi	87.8	88.3	87.2	87.8
103	Ball St.	86.0	89.1	87.2	87.4
104	Central Michigan	85.3	89.3	87.3	87.3
105	Buffalo	83.9	91.3	86.4	87.2
106	Fresno St.	85.6	91.7	83.9	87.1
107	Kent St.	83.5	86.2	84.4	84.7
108	UL-Lafayette	83.1	87.4	83.3	84.6
109	Connecticut	82.0	88.0	82.3	84.1
110	Army	79.2	90.1	80.9	83.4
111	Florida Atlantic	81.7	85.7	82.1	83.2
112	Texas St.	81.2	85.1	80.9	82.4
113	UTEP	81.5	84.3	81.3	82.4
114	UL-Monroe	83.1	79.9	82.8	81.9
115	UNLV	80.2	82.6	80.9	81.2
116	UT-San Antonio	78.3	81.3	79.5	79.7
117	North Texas	77.2	83.3	77.6	79.4
118	South Alabama	75.4	83.2	77.0	78.5
119	Old Dominion	76.6	83.0	75.4	78.3
120	Wyoming	77.9	79.7	76.1	77.9
121	Miami (O)	75.1	80.3	75.0	76.8
122	Kansas	79.1	72.8	77.1	76.3
123	Troy	75.3	75.0	77.0	75.8
124	Eastern Michigan	72.7	82.2	72.3	75.7
125	Georgia St.	75.7	74.4	75.4	75.2
126	New Mexico St.	73.6	74.7	73.5	73.9
127	Idaho	70.4	78.3	71.7	73.5
128	Charlotte	69.0	71.0	68.7	69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	1-0	3-0	107.3	109.4	108.6	108.4
Cincinnati	0-2	2-2	102.1	102.2	103.2	102.5
East Carolina	0-1	2-2	93.2	96.5	93.6	94.4
Central Florida	0-0	0-4	89.2	92.7	90.6	90.8
South Florida	0-0	2-2	88.1	94.9	87.5	90.2
Connecticut	0-1	2-2	82.0	88.0	82.3	84.1
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	1-0	4-0	104.9	104.8	106.3	105.3
Houston	0-0	3-0	100.3	108.3	103.0	103.9
Navy	2-0	3-0	98.1	101.3	98.5	99.3
Tulsa	0-0	2-1	91.5	97.4	92.9	93.9
SMU	0-0	1-3	87.6	91.4	87.7	88.9
Tulane	0-0	1-2	87.9	90.3	86.0	88.1
AAC Averages			94.4	98.1	95.0	95.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	1-0	3-0	115.4	116.5	115.3	115.7
Florida St.	1-0	3-0	115.0	115.3	113.7	114.7
North Carolina St.	0-0	4-0	111.8	113.9	111.1	112.3
Louisville	0-1	1-3	107.9	110.4	108.1	108.8
Boston College	0-1	3-1	100.8	105.5	99.1	101.8
Syracuse	1-0	3-1	96.0	99.7	95.6	97.1
Wake Forest	0-1	2-2	94.7	98.8	93.7	95.7
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Tech	0-1	2-2	119.9	116.8	119.3	118.7
North Carolina	0-0	3-1	113.4	113.4	113.0	113.3
Virginia Tech	0-0	2-2	112.2	109.6	112.4	111.4
Miami	0-0	3-0	109.0	109.9	109.5	109.5
Duke	1-0	3-1	106.0	105.4	106.8	106.1
Pittsburgh	0-0	2-1	103.7	105.8	104.9	104.8
Virginia	0-0	1-3	100.6	97.5	99.7	99.3
ACC Averages			107.6	108.5	107.3	107.8
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Baylor	0-0	3-0	124.9	121.4	125.6	124.0
TCU	1-0	4-0	126.8	116.4	127.6	123.6
Oklahoma	0-0	3-0	121.2	118.4	121.5	120.4
West Virginia	0-0	3-0	116.8	111.4	116.4	114.9
Oklahoma St.	1-0	4-0	112.3	112.6	112.8	112.6
Texas Tech	0-1	3-1	112.0	102.6	112.1	108.9
Texas	0-1	1-3	106.8	105.5	106.5	106.3
Kansas St.	0-0	3-0	109.6	96.3	108.2	104.7
Iowa St.	0-0	1-2	95.7	92.4	94.6	94.2
Kansas	0-0	0-3	79.1	72.8	77.1	76.3
Big 12 Averages			110.5	105.0	110.2	108.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	0-0	4-0	131.6	123.3	132.2	129.0
Michigan St.	0-0	4-0	118.3	114.2	118.1	116.9
Michigan	0-0	3-1	116.3	112.5	115.9	114.9
Penn St.	1-0	3-1	105.8	108.1	106.1	106.7
Indiana	0-0	4-0	95.6	97.6	95.4	96.2
Rutgers	0-1	2-2	97.3	94.0	95.1	95.5
Maryland	0-0	2-2	93.2	90.7	91.9	91.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	3-1	111.5	112.4	110.7	111.5
Nebraska	0-0	2-2	109.0	106.3	108.2	107.8
Minnesota	0-0	3-1	107.9	106.5	107.6	107.3
Northwestern	0-0	4-0	105.7	106.5	105.4	105.9
Iowa	0-0	4-0	104.5	107.7	105.4	105.9
Illinois	0-0	3-1	106.7	104.2	105.5	105.5
Purdue	0-0	1-3	97.4	97.0	95.7	96.7
Big Ten Averages			107.2	105.8	106.7	106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	1-0	3-1	102.1	100.7	103.4	102.1
Middle Tennessee	1-0	2-2	98.8	98.5	98.7	98.7
Marshall	0-0	3-1	95.0	94.8	95.4	95.1
Florida International	0-1	2-2	89.5	91.9	91.3	90.9
Florida Atlantic	1-0	1-3	81.7	85.7	82.1	83.2
Old Dominion	0-0	2-2	76.6	83.0	75.4	78.3
Charlotte	0-2	2-2	69.0	71.0	68.7	69.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	1-1	2-2	101.1	98.3	102.0	100.5
Rice	1-0	2-2	86.6	91.0	87.2	88.3
Southern Mississippi	0-0	2-2	87.8	88.3	87.2	87.8
UTEP	0-0	2-2	81.5	84.3	81.3	82.4
UT-San Antonio	0-0	0-4	78.3	81.3	79.5	79.7
North Texas	0-1	0-3	77.2	83.3	77.6	79.4
CUSA Averages			86.6	88.6	86.9	87.4
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		4-0	123.5	119.7	124.0	122.4
BYU		2-2	105.9	103.8	107.0	105.6
Army		1-3	79.2	90.1	80.9	83.4
Independents Averages			102.9	104.5	104.0	103.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	0-0	2-2	97.0	101.1	98.8	99.0
Ohio	0-0	3-1	93.2	97.6	95.0	95.3
Massachusetts	0-0	0-3	87.4	90.8	89.0	89.1
Akron	0-0	2-2	85.2	91.5	86.8	87.8
Buffalo	0-0	2-2	83.9	91.3	86.4	87.2
Kent St.	0-0	1-3	83.5	86.2	84.4	84.7
Miami (O)	0-0	1-3	75.1	80.3	75.0	76.8
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	0-0	3-0	101.3	99.6	102.5	101.1
Western Michigan	0-0	1-3	96.0	95.3	97.2	96.2
Northern Illinois	0-0	2-2	94.6	97.4	95.0	95.7
Ball St.	1-0	2-2	86.0	89.1	87.2	87.4
Central Michigan	0-0	1-3	85.3	89.3	87.3	87.3
Eastern Michigan	0-1	1-3	72.7	82.2	72.3	75.7
MAC Averages			87.8	91.7	89.0	89.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	0-0	3-1	114.6	109.2	114.3	112.7
Air Force	1-0	2-1	94.8	100.0	94.6	96.5
Utah St.	0-0	1-2	95.9	94.4	96.0	95.4
Colorado St.	0-0	2-2	94.7	92.6	93.1	93.5
New Mexico	1-0	2-2	90.7	91.6	90.1	90.8
Wyoming	0-1	0-4	77.9	79.7	76.1	77.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	1-3	93.6	98.6	94.5	95.6
San Jose St.	1-1	2-2	92.7	96.2	93.0	94.0
Nevada	0-0	2-2	91.3	95.3	90.9	92.5
Hawaii	0-0	2-2	91.5	93.7	91.9	92.4
Fresno St.	0-1	1-3	85.6	91.7	83.9	87.1
UNLV	0-0	1-3	80.2	82.6	80.9	81.2
MWC Averages			92.0	93.8	91.6	92.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	2-0	3-1	118.2	117.0	118.2	117.8
California	1-0	4-0	117.8	113.0	118.2	116.3
Oregon	0-1	2-2	118.0	110.2	117.2	115.1
Washington	0-1	2-2	104.0	102.0	104.5	103.5
Washington St.	0-0	2-1	98.5	93.3	96.7	96.2
Oregon St.	0-1	2-2	93.0	91.4	92.1	92.2
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	1-1	3-1	123.8	120.4	124.2	122.8
UCLA	1-0	4-0	124.7	118.4	122.9	122.0
Utah	1-0	4-0	124.1	118.3	123.5	122.0
Arizona St.	0-1	2-2	112.1	106.9	110.6	109.9
Arizona	0-1	3-1	112.8	105.6	110.6	109.7
Colorado	0-0	3-1	106.0	101.7	105.3	104.3
Pac-12 Averages			112.8	108.2	112.0	111.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	2-0	4-0	124.5	116.8	123.8	121.7
Tennessee	0-1	2-2	119.9	115.6	119.5	118.3
Florida	2-0	4-0	112.2	108.9	111.8	111.0
Missouri	0-1	3-1	110.1	107.1	109.2	108.8
Kentucky	2-1	3-1	107.3	103.9	106.6	105.9
South Carolina	0-2	2-2	107.5	104.0	106.0	105.8
Vanderbilt	0-2	1-3	100.3	94.5	99.6	98.1
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ole Miss	2-0	4-0	128.6	122.0	126.8	125.8
LSU	2-0	3-0	124.5	121.1	124.1	123.2
Alabama	0-1	3-1	123.9	122.0	123.1	123.0
Texas A&M	1-0	4-0	120.3	118.2	119.2	119.2
Arkansas	0-1	1-3	117.5	111.4	116.5	115.1
Auburn	0-2	2-2	115.4	112.9	114.3	114.2
Mississippi St.	1-1	3-1	114.4	110.3	114.5	113.1
SEC Averages			116.2	112.1	115.4	114.5
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	0-0	2-1	96.1	99.8	98.5	98.1
Georgia Southern	1-0	3-1	94.7	97.4	95.4	95.8
Arkansas St.	0-0	1-3	88.9	88.4	89.6	89.0
UL-Lafayette	0-0	1-2	83.1	87.4	83.3	84.6
Texas St.	0-0	1-3	81.2	85.1	80.9	82.4
UL-Monroe	0-0	1-2	83.1	79.9	82.8	81.9
South Alabama	0-0	2-2	75.4	83.2	77.0	78.5
Troy	0-0	1-2	75.3	75.0	77.0	75.8
Georgia St.	1-0	1-2	75.7	74.4	75.4	75.2
New Mexico St.	0-1	0-3	73.6	74.7	73.5	73.9
Idaho	0-1	1-3	70.4	78.3	71.7	73.5
Sun Belt Averages			81.6	84.0	82.3	82.6

PiRate Ratings of Each Conference

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	116.2	112.1	115.4	114.5
2	Pac-12	112.8	108.2	112.0	111.0
3	Big 12	110.5	105.0	110.2	108.6
4	ACC	107.6	108.5	107.3	107.8
5	Big Ten	107.2	105.8	106.7	106.5
6	Indep.	102.9	104.5	104.0	103.8
7	AAC	94.4	98.1	95.0	95.8
8	MWC	92.0	93.8	91.6	92.5
9	MAC	87.8	91.7	89.0	89.5
10	CUSA	86.6	88.6	86.9	87.4
11	SBC	81.6	84.0	82.3	82.6

 

If The Playoffs Began This Week

NCAA Playoffs
1	Ohio St.
2	Ole Miss
3	Michigan St.
4	TCU

10 Lowest Rated Teams From Power 5 Conferences

#	Team
10	Kansas
9	Maryland
8	Oregon St.
7	Iowa St.
6	Rutgers
5	Washington St.
4	Purdue
3	Syracuse
2	Vanderbilt
1	Indiana

 

Top 5 Group of 5 Contenders For New Year’s 6 Bowl

#	Team
1	Temple
2	Memphis
3	Houston
4	Toledo
5	Navy

 

Top 10 FCS Teams

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	96.8
2	South Dakota St.	93.8
3	North Dakota St.	92.3
4	Coastal Carolina	89.7
5	Harvard	89.5
6	Chattanooga	89.2
7	James Madison	88.9
8	Illinois St.	88.2
9	Northern Iowa	88.1
10	Portland St.	88.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, October 1
Cincinnati	Miami (Fla)	-3.9	-4.7	-3.3
Friday, October 2		PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Florida	Memphis	-13.8	-6.9	-15.8
Charlotte	Temple	-36.3	-36.4	-37.9
BYU	Connecticut	27.9	19.8	28.7
Saturday, October 3		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	11.0	6.3	10.0
Missouri	South Carolina	5.6	6.1	6.2
Michigan St.	Purdue	23.9	20.2	25.4
Northwestern	Minnesota	0.3	2.5	0.3
Wisconsin	Iowa	10.0	7.7	8.3
Penn St.	Army	29.6	20.0	28.2
Iowa St.	Kansas	18.6	21.6	19.5
Oklahoma	West Virginia	7.4	10.0	8.1
TCU	Texas	22.0	12.9	23.1
Tulane	Central Florida	1.2	0.1	-2.1
Tulsa	Houston	-5.8	-7.9	-7.1
North Carolina St.	Louisville	6.9	6.5	6.0
Akron	Ohio U	-6.0	-4.1	-5.2
Ball St.	Toledo	-12.8	-8.0	-12.8
California	Washington St.	22.3	22.7	24.5
Massachusetts	Florida Int’l	0.4	1.4	0.2
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	-6.8	-5.6	-5.2
Appalachian St.	Wyoming	21.7	23.6	25.9
Navy	Air Force	6.8	4.8	7.4
Buffalo	Bowling Green	-10.1	-6.8	-9.4
Kent St.	Miami (O)	10.4	7.9	11.4
Duke	Boston College	8.2	2.9	10.7
Wake Forest	Florida St.	-17.3	-13.5	-17.0
Georgia Tech	North Carolina	9.5	6.4	9.3
Georgia	Alabama	3.6	-2.2	3.7
Baylor	Texas Tech	15.9	21.8	16.5
Illinois	Nebraska	0.7	0.9	0.3
Indiana	Ohio St.	-33.0	-22.7	-33.8
Marshall	Old Dominion	20.9	14.3	22.5
Rice	Western Kentucky	-12.5	-6.7	-13.2
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	5.7	19.3	7.6
Auburn	San Jose St.	26.7	20.7	25.3
SMU	East Carolina	-3.1	-2.6	-3.4
Arkansas St.	Idaho	21.5	13.1	20.9
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia Southern	-8.6	-14.5	-9.6
Utah St.	Colorado St.	4.2	4.8	5.9
Nevada	UNLV	13.1	14.7	12.0
Troy	South Alabama	1.9	-6.2	2.0
Florida	Ole Miss	-12.6	-10.1	-12.0
Tennessee	Arkansas	5.4	7.2	6.0
LSU	Eastern Michigan	54.8	41.9	54.8
Middle Tennessee	Vanderbilt	0.5	6.0	1.1
Southern Miss.	North Texas	13.1	7.5	12.1
Louisiana Tech	Louisiana-Lafayette	20.0	12.9	20.7
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	8.9	10.9	7.7
UCLA	Arizona St.	15.6	14.5	15.3
Clemson	Notre Dame	-5.1	-0.2	-5.7
UTEP	UTSA	5.2	5.0	3.8
Maryland	Michigan	-20.1	-18.8	-21.0
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	19.1	18.9	18.6
Colorado	Oregon	-9.0	-5.5	-8.9
Boise St.	Hawaii	27.1	19.5	26.4
Stanford	Arizona	8.4	14.4	10.6
San Diego St.	Fresno St.	10.5	9.4	13.1
FBS vs. FCS	Week 5	PiRate
Georgia St.	Liberty	-5
Kentucky	Eastern Kentucky	28

 

PiRate Rating Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Western Michigan *	vs.	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Rice
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	Arizona St.	vs.	BYU
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	vs.	South Alabama
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Appalachian St.
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	Temple	vs.	Marshall
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	vs.	Boise St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	San Diego St. *	vs.	Northern Illinois
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Nevada	vs.	Washington
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Bowling Green	vs.	Georgia Southern
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Western Kentucky	vs.	Toledo
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Tulsa	vs.	Hawaii
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	East Carolina	vs.	Middle Tennessee
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina St.	vs.	California
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Utah St. *	vs.	Southern Miss.
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	vs.	Iowa
Independence	SEC	ACC	Colorado St. *	vs.	Virginia Tech
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	vs.	Oregon
Military	ACC	AAC	North Carolina	vs.	Navy
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Indiana
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Minnesota	vs.	Air Force
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	West Virginia
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Mississippi St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	vs.	Georgia Tech *
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	vs.	Missouri
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Kentucky
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Clemson	vs.	Baylor
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Notre Dame	vs.	Utah
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Georgia	vs.	Michigan
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	vs.	USC
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Texas A&M
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	vs.	Alabama
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	vs.	LSU
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	vs.	UCLA
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Ole Miss	vs.	Houston
TaxSlayer	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fl)	vs.	Florida
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	vs.	Tennessee
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	Stanford
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Arizona
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Georgia	vs.	Utah
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

PiRate Ratings College Football For Week 2: September 10-12, 2015

One week is all it took for the cream to rise to the top.  The Southeastern Conference, coming off a year in which its top team failed to play in the National Championship Game since Vince Young led Texas over Matt Leinert and USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl, placed 10 of its 14 teams in the nation’s top poll.  Yes, 40% of the Top 25 has an SEC flavor.  All seven SEC West teams are ranked.

Our PiRate Ratings have just nine SEC teams ranked in the top 25, but overall, we have the SEC separating itself from the number two league by almost five points per team.

Texas A&M, Auburn, and Alabama all won on neutral fields against teams from Power 5 conferences.  Additionally, the league’s top rival, the Pac-12 had a miserable weekend.  Arizona State failed to show up against Texas A&M.  Arizona just barely escaped lowly Texas-San Antonio.  Oregon State looked weak beating Weber St.  Washington State was worse than that; the Cougars lost at home to Portland State, and now Mike Leach is no longer looked upon as the genius he once was.

Colorado lost to a Hawaii team that hasn’t been decent in five years.  Even Oregon looked average in their win over Eastern Washington.

There were some bright spots.  UCLA, USC, Utah, and California all looked impressive in season-opening wins.  Washington put a scare on Boise State on the road.  Still, the league as a whole dropped well behind the SEC.

The Big 12 received a minor black eye in the opening week.  TCU looked beatable in their win at Minnesota.  Baylor did not look like a world beater against SMU.  Texas looked more like SMU of 2014 in their blowout loss to Notre Dame.  Oklahoma State had difficulties beating Central Michigan.  Texas Tech could have lost to Sam Houston.  And, Kansas lost at home to South Dakota St..

Week two brings a couple of interesting games worth watching.  Start with Oregon visiting Michigan State, where the loser is likely finished in the College Playoff race, while the winner moves up a couple places in the pecking order.  Neither team was all that impressive in week one, but both more than likely held back a lot of their repertoires on both sides of the ball.

Oklahoma visits Neyland Stadium to take on Tennessee in what looks like a tossup game.  The Vols’ offense looked unstoppable against a decent Bowling Green team, while Oklahoma looked solid but not spectacular against Akron.  This game should be exciting.

Two crucial SEC games should give the winners a leg up on bowl eligibility.  In the East, South Carolina hosts Kentucky, and the winner will be 2-0.  The Wildcats upset the Gamecocks in Lexington last year.  Mississippi State hosts an LSU team that played all of five minutes against McNeese State in week one with lightning coming out the victor.  Mississippi State needs an upset in league play to smell bowl eligibility this year.  The Bulldogs are raw on both sides of the ball.  It will be interesting to see how much LSU relies on Leonard Fornette and whether State can shut down the Tiger running game and force the Bayou Bengals to throw the ball.

In the AAC, Temple visits Cincinnati, and the winner of this game becomes a top contender for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl game allocated to the top team from the Group of 5 conferences (AAC, MWC, Sun Belt, CUSA, and MAC plus BYU and Army among the Independents).

There are a couple of in-state rivalry games this week.  The Friday game, Utah State at Utah, may not be that close, but the Saturday game, Iowa at Iowa State, should be one of the most entertaining games of the week,

Then, there are a couple of under the radar games that we find interesting.  Wake Forest visits Syracuse, and the winner will improve to 2-0 with a chance to sneak into the bowl conversation in October.  Kansas State visits UT-San Antonio a week after UTSA put a scare on Arizona in Tucson.  Many times, when a team plays an incredible road game and loses in a close game that should have been a blowout loss, they return home the following week and have enough confidence to complete the surprise.  It would be quite a surprise if UTSA upset the Wildcats.

Missouri travels to Jonesboro, Arkansas, to take on Arkansas State, and this is a huge trap game for the Tigers.  Missouri has been a slow-starter in recent years, and ASU has enough talent to keep this game close and pull out a sneaky upset at the end.

And finally, there are three games where another poor performance following an opening week bomb could get the Bunsen Burners started warming up some seats.  Texas better look 100% better at home against Rice, or Charlie Strong might start facing a little heat.  Penn State needs to rebound against Buffalo and move the football for 400 yards and 35 points, or else James Franklin could feel a little heat in Happy Valley.  By far the coach with the most to lose this week is the coach with little chance of seeing his team compete.  Mike London and his Virginia Cavaliers take on Notre Dame, a week after facing UCLA at the Rose Bowl.  With Boise State scheduled to come to Charlottesville in week four, the Cavs better show up and give a good effort against the Irish and then demolish William and Mary next week, or London could be the first coach to get a pink slip during the season, when UVa is off in week five (Tim Beckman was fired at Illinois prior to the beginning of the season).

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	137.7	127.0	138.9	134.5
2	TCU	129.6	118.0	131.0	126.2
3	Ole Miss	129.0	121.4	127.3	125.9
4	Alabama	125.1	123.7	124.8	124.5
5	Baylor	125.0	121.1	125.5	123.9
6	LSU	125.2	120.9	125.1	123.7
7	Notre Dame	123.7	120.1	124.4	122.7
8	UCLA	125.2	118.0	123.4	122.2
9	Oregon	124.7	116.3	124.5	121.8
10	USC	123.3	118.6	123.2	121.7
11	Arkansas	123.8	117.8	123.4	121.7
12	Auburn	121.3	119.8	120.5	120.5
13	Oklahoma	121.4	118.3	121.8	120.5
14	Georgia	123.6	115.2	122.7	120.5
15	Michigan St.	121.6	115.6	121.8	119.7
16	Tennessee	121.1	116.6	121.1	119.6
17	Texas A&M	119.7	117.5	118.6	118.6
18	Georgia Tech	120.8	112.0	120.2	117.7
19	Utah	119.4	112.3	118.8	116.8
20	California	118.2	112.0	118.5	116.2
21	Stanford	116.5	113.3	117.1	115.6
22	Clemson	114.6	115.7	114.5	114.9
23	Florida St.	115.2	115.2	113.9	114.8
24	West Virginia	116.2	110.8	115.6	114.2
25	Missouri	115.6	111.6	115.1	114.1
26	Arizona St.	116.2	110.4	114.8	113.8
27	Virginia Tech	114.3	110.3	114.4	113.0
28	Wisconsin	112.7	113.0	112.4	112.7
29	Oklahoma St.	112.1	112.3	112.5	112.3
30	Boise St.	114.3	108.5	113.6	112.1
31	Florida	113.5	108.9	113.0	111.8
32	Michigan	112.9	108.7	112.2	111.3
33	Louisville	110.3	112.5	110.6	111.1
34	Minnesota	111.6	109.7	112.0	111.1
35	North Carolina	111.1	111.0	110.3	110.8
36	Mississippi St.	112.4	107.7	112.1	110.7
37	Arizona	113.6	105.6	111.5	110.2
38	Miami	109.1	110.0	109.6	109.6
39	North Carolina St.	109.2	111.0	108.2	109.5
40	South Carolina	109.9	107.2	109.1	108.7
41	Nebraska	110.1	106.4	109.3	108.6
42	Penn St.	107.8	109.8	108.1	108.6
43	Temple	107.1	109.8	108.4	108.4
44	Texas	108.0	106.6	107.6	107.4
45	Illinois	107.6	105.3	107.0	106.6
46	Northwestern	106.2	107.1	105.7	106.3
47	Cincinnati	104.7	105.1	106.2	105.3
48	Pittsburgh	104.0	105.8	105.5	105.1
49	Kansas St.	111.0	94.6	109.3	105.0
50	Memphis	104.4	104.7	105.7	104.9
51	BYU	104.8	103.3	106.2	104.8
52	Colorado	105.5	101.1	104.6	103.7
53	Kentucky	105.2	101.7	104.3	103.7
54	Duke	102.0	102.7	103.1	102.6
55	Texas Tech	106.1	95.5	105.3	102.3
56	Iowa	100.9	104.1	101.0	102.0
57	Washington	102.5	100.5	102.6	101.9
58	Virginia	103.0	100.0	102.2	101.7
59	Boston College	99.9	105.0	98.4	101.1
60	Western Kentucky	101.0	98.8	102.1	100.6
61	Louisiana Tech	100.4	98.1	101.2	99.9
62	Purdue	99.6	99.4	97.9	99.0
63	Wake Forest	97.4	102.2	97.0	98.9
64	San Diego St.	96.1	102.4	97.8	98.8
65	Western Michigan	97.9	98.7	99.5	98.7
66	Navy	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5
67	Houston	94.6	103.0	97.2	98.3
68	Rutgers	99.4	96.8	97.8	98.0
69	Marshall	97.5	97.2	98.3	97.7
70	Maryland	98.4	94.3	97.0	96.6
71	Toledo	96.0	94.4	96.9	95.8
72	Indiana	95.3	96.7	95.2	95.7
73	Washington St.	98.5	92.0	96.7	95.7
74	Middle Tennessee	95.9	95.4	95.3	95.5
75	Vanderbilt	97.7	91.7	96.4	95.3
76	Syracuse	94.2	98.2	93.1	95.2
77	Utah St.	95.1	94.3	95.4	94.9
78	Bowling Green	91.8	97.5	93.6	94.3
79	Iowa St.	96.0	92.2	94.7	94.3
80	Appalachian St.	92.5	95.7	94.6	94.3
81	Colorado St.	95.6	93.1	93.6	94.1
82	Central Florida	92.0	96.2	93.3	93.8
83	Air Force	92.3	97.8	91.3	93.8
84	New Mexico	93.5	94.6	93.0	93.7
85	San Jose St.	92.3	95.9	92.2	93.5
86	Nevada	90.9	95.8	90.2	92.3
87	Northern Illinois	91.2	94.3	91.3	92.3
88	Ohio	90.1	95.1	91.6	92.3
89	Hawaii	90.5	93.5	91.1	91.7
90	Oregon St.	92.6	90.2	91.6	91.5
91	Georgia Southern	90.9	92.7	90.7	91.4
92	Fresno St.	88.3	97.1	87.7	91.0
93	East Carolina	88.8	94.7	89.2	90.9
94	South Florida	88.3	96.2	88.1	90.9
95	Florida International	88.6	91.4	90.5	90.2
96	Tulane	89.6	92.5	88.0	90.0
97	Tulsa	86.5	93.3	87.4	89.1
98	Massachusetts	86.8	90.4	88.6	88.6
99	Rice	86.7	91.3	86.9	88.3
100	Arkansas St.	87.9	88.0	88.7	88.2
101	Ball St.	86.2	88.6	87.4	87.4
102	UTEP	85.1	89.1	85.4	86.5
103	UL-Lafayette	85.0	89.1	85.4	86.5
104	Akron	82.7	89.5	84.2	85.5
105	Texas St.	83.8	88.5	83.9	85.4
106	Florida Atlantic	83.4	88.0	84.4	85.3
107	SMU	83.8	88.8	83.1	85.2
108	Southern Mississippi	85.6	85.2	84.2	85.0
109	Central Michigan	82.0	88.0	83.9	84.6
110	North Texas	81.7	88.9	83.0	84.5
111	Old Dominion	81.1	88.7	80.2	83.3
112	Buffalo	80.1	87.6	82.1	83.3
113	Kent St.	80.9	83.9	81.3	82.0
114	Connecticut	79.5	86.1	79.3	81.6
115	Wyoming	81.4	83.7	79.6	81.6
116	UT-San Antonio	78.3	84.5	79.9	80.9
117	Army	76.4	87.5	77.8	80.6
118	UL-Monroe	81.4	78.0	80.7	80.0
119	South Alabama	76.0	84.7	77.8	79.5
120	Miami (O)	76.1	83.4	76.2	78.6
121	UNLV	77.5	80.6	77.6	78.6
122	Kansas	79.9	72.9	77.8	76.9
123	Eastern Michigan	72.1	83.2	72.1	75.8
124	New Mexico St.	74.4	75.5	74.5	74.8
125	Idaho	70.9	80.6	72.6	74.7
126	Georgia St.	73.4	72.2	72.4	72.7
127	Troy	72.1	71.6	72.8	72.2
128	Charlotte	70.8	73.0	70.6	71.5

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	0-0	1-0	107.1	109.8	108.4	108.4
Cincinnati	0-0	1-0	104.7	105.1	106.2	105.3
Central Florida	0-0	0-1	92.0	96.2	93.3	93.8
East Carolina	0-0	1-0	88.8	94.7	89.2	90.9
South Florida	0-0	1-0	88.3	96.2	88.1	90.9
Connecticut	0-0	1-0	79.5	86.1	79.3	81.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	1-0	104.4	104.7	105.7	104.9
Houston	0-0	1-0	94.6	103.0	97.2	98.3
Navy	0-0	1-0	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5
Tulane	0-0	0-1	89.6	92.5	88.0	90.0
Tulsa	0-0	1-0	86.5	93.3	87.4	89.1
SMU	0-0	0-1	83.8	88.8	83.1	85.2
AAC Averages			93.1	97.6	93.6	94.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	0-0	1-0	114.6	115.7	114.5	114.9
Florida St.	0-0	1-0	115.2	115.2	113.9	114.8
Louisville	0-0	0-1	110.3	112.5	110.6	111.1
North Carolina St.	0-0	1-0	109.2	111.0	108.2	109.5
Boston College	0-0	1-0	99.9	105.0	98.4	101.1
Wake Forest	0-0	1-0	97.4	102.2	97.0	98.9
Syracuse	0-0	1-0	94.2	98.2	93.1	95.2
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Tech	0-0	1-0	120.8	112.0	120.2	117.7
Virginia Tech	0-0	0-1	114.3	110.3	114.4	113.0
North Carolina	0-0	0-1	111.1	111.0	110.3	110.8
Miami	0-0	1-0	109.1	110.0	109.6	109.6
Pittsburgh	0-0	1-0	104.0	105.8	105.5	105.1
Duke	0-0	1-0	102.0	102.7	103.1	102.6
Virginia	0-0	0-1	103.0	100.0	102.2	101.7
ACC Averages			107.5	108.0	107.2	107.6
Big 12 Conference
	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
TCU	0-0	1-0	129.6	118.0	131.0	126.2
Baylor	0-0	1-0	125.0	121.1	125.5	123.9
Oklahoma	0-0	1-0	121.4	118.3	121.8	120.5
West Virginia	0-0	1-0	116.2	110.8	115.6	114.2
Oklahoma St.	0-0	1-0	112.1	112.3	112.5	112.3
Texas	0-0	0-1	108.0	106.6	107.6	107.4
Kansas St.	0-0	1-0	111.0	94.6	109.3	105.0
Texas Tech	0-0	1-0	106.1	95.5	105.3	102.3
Iowa St.	0-0	1-0	96.0	92.2	94.7	94.3
Kansas	0-0	0-1	79.9	72.9	77.8	76.9
Big 12 Averages			110.5	104.2	110.1	108.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	0-0	1-0	137.7	127.0	138.9	134.5
Michigan St.	0-0	1-0	121.6	115.6	121.8	119.7
Michigan	0-0	0-1	112.9	108.7	112.2	111.3
Penn St.	0-0	0-1	107.8	109.8	108.1	108.6
Rutgers	0-0	1-0	99.4	96.8	97.8	98.0
Maryland	0-0	1-0	98.4	94.3	97.0	96.6
Indiana	0-0	1-0	95.3	96.7	95.2	95.7
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	0-1	112.7	113.0	112.4	112.7
Minnesota	0-0	0-1	111.6	109.7	112.0	111.1
Nebraska	0-0	0-1	110.1	106.4	109.3	108.6
Illinois	0-0	1-0	107.6	105.3	107.0	106.6
Northwestern	0-0	1-0	106.2	107.1	105.7	106.3
Iowa	0-0	1-0	100.9	104.1	101.0	102.0
Purdue	0-0	0-1	99.6	99.4	97.9	99.0
Big Ten Averages			108.7	106.7	108.3	107.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	0-0	1-0	101.0	98.8	102.1	100.6
Marshall	0-0	1-0	97.5	97.2	98.3	97.7
Middle Tennessee	0-0	1-0	95.9	95.4	95.3	95.5
Florida International	0-0	1-0	88.6	91.4	90.5	90.2
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-1	83.4	88.0	84.4	85.3
Old Dominion	0-0	1-0	81.1	88.7	80.2	83.3
Charlotte	0-0	1-0	70.8	73.0	70.6	71.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	0-0	1-0	100.4	98.1	101.2	99.9
Rice	0-0	1-0	86.7	91.3	86.9	88.3
UTEP	0-0	0-1	85.1	89.1	85.4	86.5
Southern Mississippi	0-0	0-1	85.6	85.2	84.2	85.0
North Texas	0-0	0-0	81.7	88.9	83.0	84.5
UT-San Antonio	0-0	2-1	78.3	84.5	79.9	80.9
CUSA Averages			87.4	90.0	87.8	88.4
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		1-0	123.7	120.1	124.4	122.7
BYU		1-0	104.8	103.3	106.2	104.8
Army		0-1	76.4	87.5	77.8	80.6
Independents Averages			101.6	103.6	102.8	102.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	0-0	0-1	91.8	97.5	93.6	94.3
Ohio	0-0	1-0	90.1	95.1	91.6	92.3
Massachusetts	0-0	0-0	86.8	90.4	88.6	88.6
Akron	0-0	0-1	82.7	89.5	84.2	85.5
Buffalo	0-0	1-0	80.1	87.6	82.1	83.3
Kent St.	0-0	0-1	80.9	83.9	81.3	82.0
Miami (O)	0-0	1-0	76.1	83.4	76.2	78.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	0-0	0-1	97.9	98.7	99.5	98.7
Toledo	0-0	0-0	96.0	94.4	96.9	95.8
Northern Illinois	0-0	1-0	91.2	94.3	91.3	92.3
Ball St.	0-0	1-0	86.2	88.6	87.4	87.4
Central Michigan	0-0	0-1	82.0	88.0	83.9	84.6
Eastern Michigan	0-0	0-1	72.1	83.2	72.1	75.8
MAC Averages			85.7	90.4	86.8	87.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	0-0	1-0	114.3	108.5	113.6	112.1
Utah St.	0-0	1-0	95.1	94.3	95.4	94.9
Colorado St.	0-0	1-0	95.6	93.1	93.6	94.1
Air Force	0-0	1-0	92.3	97.8	91.3	93.8
New Mexico	0-0	1-0	93.5	94.6	93.0	93.7
Wyoming	0-0	0-1	81.4	83.7	79.6	81.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	1-0	96.1	102.4	97.8	98.8
Nevada	0-0	1-0	90.9	95.8	90.2	92.3
San Jose St.	0-0	1-0	92.3	95.9	92.2	93.5
Hawaii	0-0	1-0	90.5	93.5	91.1	91.7
Fresno St.	0-0	1-0	88.3	97.1	87.7	91.0
UNLV	0-0	0-1	77.5	80.6	77.6	78.6
MWC Averages			92.3	94.8	91.9	93.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	0-0	1-0	124.7	116.3	124.5	121.8
California	0-0	1-0	118.2	112.0	118.5	116.2
Stanford	0-0	0-1	116.5	113.3	117.1	115.6
Washington	0-0	0-1	102.5	100.5	102.6	101.9
Washington St.	0-0	0-1	98.5	92.0	96.7	95.7
Oregon St.	0-0	1-0	92.6	90.2	91.6	91.5
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
UCLA	0-0	1-0	125.2	118.0	123.4	122.2
USC	0-0	1-0	123.3	118.6	123.2	121.7
Utah	0-0	1-0	119.4	112.3	118.8	116.8
Arizona St.	0-0	0-1	116.2	110.4	114.8	113.8
Arizona	0-0	1-0	113.6	105.6	111.5	110.2
Colorado	0-0	0-1	105.5	101.1	104.6	103.7
Pac-12 Averages			113.0	107.5	112.3	110.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	0-0	1-0	123.6	115.2	122.7	120.5
Tennessee	0-0	1-0	121.1	116.6	121.1	119.6
Missouri	0-0	1-0	115.6	111.6	115.1	114.1
Florida	0-0	1-0	113.5	108.9	113.0	111.8
South Carolina	0-0	1-0	109.9	107.2	109.1	108.7
Kentucky	0-0	1-0	105.2	101.7	104.3	103.7
Vanderbilt	0-0	0-1	97.7	91.7	96.4	95.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ole Miss	0-0	1-0	129.0	121.4	127.3	125.9
Alabama	0-0	1-0	125.1	123.7	124.8	124.5
LSU	0-0	0-0	125.2	120.9	125.1	123.7
Arkansas	0-0	1-0	123.8	117.8	123.4	121.7
Auburn	0-0	1-0	121.3	119.8	120.5	120.5
Texas A&M	0-0	1-0	119.7	117.5	118.6	118.6
Mississippi St.	0-0	1-0	112.4	107.7	112.1	110.7
SEC Averages			117.4	113.0	116.7	115.7
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	0-0	1-0	92.5	95.7	94.6	94.3
Georgia Southern	0-0	0-1	90.9	92.7	90.7	91.4
Arkansas St.	0-0	0-1	87.9	88.0	88.7	88.2
UL-Lafayette	0-0	0-1	85.0	89.1	85.4	86.5
Texas St.	0-0	0-1	83.8	88.5	83.9	85.4
UL-Monroe	0-0	0-1	81.4	78.0	80.7	80.0
South Alabama	0-0	1-0	76.0	84.7	77.8	79.5
New Mexico St.	0-0	0-1	74.4	75.5	74.5	74.8
Idaho	0-0	0-1	70.9	80.6	72.6	74.7
Georgia St.	0-0	0-1	73.4	72.2	72.4	72.7
Troy	0-0	0-1	72.1	71.6	72.8	72.2
Sun Belt Averages			80.8	83.3	81.3	81.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	117.4	113.0	116.7	115.7
2	Pac-12	113.0	107.5	112.3	110.9
3	Big 12	110.5	104.2	110.1	108.3
4	Big Ten	108.7	106.7	108.3	107.9
5	ACC	107.5	108.0	107.2	107.6
6	Independents	101.6	103.6	102.8	102.7
7	AAC	93.1	97.6	93.6	94.8
8	MWC	92.3	94.8	91.9	93.0
9	CUSA	87.4	90.0	87.8	88.4
10	MAC	85.7	90.4	86.8	87.6
11	Sun Belt	80.8	83.3	81.3	81.8

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Kansas	79.9	72.9	77.8	76.9
2	Oregon St.	92.6	90.2	91.6	91.5
3	Iowa St.	96.0	92.2	94.7	94.3
4	Syracuse	94.2	98.2	93.1	95.2
5	Vanderbilt	97.7	91.7	96.4	95.3
6	Indiana	95.3	96.7	95.2	95.7
7	Washington St.	98.5	92.0	96.7	95.7
8	Maryland	98.4	94.3	97.0	96.6
9	Rutgers	99.4	96.8	97.8	98.0
10	Virginia	103.0	100.0	102.2	101.7

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Boise St.	114.3	108.5	113.6	112.1
2	Temple	107.1	109.8	108.4	108.4
3	Cincinnati	104.7	105.1	106.2	105.3
4	Memphis	104.4	104.7	105.7	104.9
5	BYU	104.8	103.3	106.2	104.8
6	Western Kentucky	101.0	98.8	102.1	100.6
7	Louisiana Tech	100.4	98.1	101.2	99.9
8	San Diego St.	96.1	102.4	97.8	98.8
9	Western Michigan	97.9	98.7	99.5	98.7
10	Navy	97.6	100.4	97.6	98.5

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	93.7
2	South Dakota St.	93.4
3	North Dakota St.	91.8
4	Coastal Carolina	90.6
5	Illinois St.	88.4
6	Eastern Washington	88.0
7	SE Louisiana	86.7
8	Cal Poly	86.6
9	Northern Iowa	86.1
10	Harvard	85.2

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, September 10
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	3.1	3.2	3.4
Friday, September 11
Florida Atlantic	Miami (FL)	-24.0	-20.3	-23.5
Utah	Utah St.	26.3	20.0	25.4
Saturday, September 12
Florida St.	South Florida	28.4	20.2	27.1
Michigan	Oregon St.	23.1	21.6	23.2
Connecticut	Army	5.1	0.6	3.5
UT-San Antonio	Kansas St.	-30.2	-7.6	-26.9
Maryland	Bowling Green	9.4	-0.4	6.2
Louisville	Houston	18.3	12.4	16.1
Penn St.	Buffalo	34.2	28.3	32.8
Wisconsin	Miami (O)	40.1	33.4	40.0
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-0.4	-1.2	-1.1
Clemson	Appalachian St.	24.5	22.4	22.3
Colorado	Massachusetts	22.2	24.2	19.5
Texas Tech	UTEP	23.5	8.9	22.4
Ohio St.	Hawaii	51.2	37.5	47.4
Colorado St.	Minnesota	-11.9	-13.7	-14.0
Rutgers	Washington St.	4.2	8.1	4.4
Georgia Tech	Tulane	32.8	21.1	33.8
Virginia	Notre Dame	-18.2	-17.3	-19.8
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-23.9	-21.5	-24.3
Ole Miss	Fresno St.	44.2	27.8	43.1
Alabama	Middle Tennessee	32.2	31.3	32.5
Arkansas	Toledo	30.8	26.4	29.5
Wyoming	Eastern Michigan	12.3	3.5	10.5
Iowa St.	Iowa	-3.7	-10.7	-5.1
California	San Diego St.	24.6	12.1	23.2
Tennessee	Oklahoma	2.7	1.3	2.3
Akron	Pittsburgh	-19.8	-14.8	-19.8
Georgia Southern	Western Michigan	-4.0	-3.0	-5.8
Ohio	Marshall	-4.9	0.4	-4.2
SMU	North Texas	4.1	1.9	2.1
Nevada	Arizona	-19.7	-6.8	-18.3
Texas A&M	Ball St.	36.5	31.9	34.2
Arkansas St.	Missouri	-25.2	-21.1	-23.9
Florida	East Carolina	27.7	17.2	26.8
Kansas	Memphis	-22.0	-29.3	-25.4
South Carolina	Kentucky	7.7	8.5	7.8
USC	Idaho	55.4	41.0	53.6
Michigan St.	Oregon	0.8	2.6	1.6
Nebraska	South Alabama	38.2	25.7	35.7
Texas	Rice	23.8	17.8	23.2
Indiana	Florida Int’l	12.0	10.6	10.0
New Mexico St.	Georgia St.	3.5	5.8	4.6
Cincinnati	Temple	0.6	-1.7	0.8
New Mexico	Tulsa	10.0	4.3	8.6
Mississippi St.	LSU	-9.8	-10.2	-10.0
Air Force	San Jose St.	3.0	4.9	2.1
BYU	Boise St.	-6.5	-2.2	-4.4
UNLV	UCLA	-45.2	-34.9	-43.3
Stanford	Central Florida	27.5	20.1	26.8
FBS vs. FCS	Week 2	PiRate
Auburn	Jacksonville St.	35
Illinois	Western Illinois	23
Purdue	Indiana St.	19
Charlotte	Presbyterian	11
Boston College	Howard	42
Washington	Sacramento St.	36
West Virginia	Liberty	42
Central Michigan	Monmouth	30
Northern Illinois	Murray St.	37
Southern Miss.	Austin Peay	34
TCU	Stephen F. Austin	53
Virginia Tech	Furman	40
Northwestern	Eastern Illinois	34
Duke	UNC-Central	37
North Carolina	North Carolina A&T	32
N.C. St.	Eastern Kentucky	34
Kent St.	Delaware St.	29
UL-Lafayette	Northwestern St.	21
UL-Monroe	Nicholls St.	36
Texas St.	Prairie View	26
Troy	Charleston Southern	6
Old Dominion	Norfolk St.	26
Oklahoma St.	Central Arkansas	36
Baylor	Lamar	50
Arizona St.	Cal Poly	34

Check back Wednesday afternoon, September 2, 2015, for additional coverage of week one of the college football season.

For now, enjoy the initial PiRate Rating spreads for games between FBS school.  Tomorrow’s update will include FBS vs. FCS games.

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, September 3
North Carolina (N)	South Carolina	3.6	6.4	4.0
Central Florida	Florida Int’l	8.4	11.2	8.4
Central Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-30.3	-23.5	-29.0
Vanderbilt	Western Kentucky	0.4	-3.8	-2.0
Utah	Michigan	9.9	6.4	10.4
Minnesota	T C U	-17.5	-5.4	-19.1
Idaho	Ohio U	16.5	10.6	15.9
Tulane	Duke	-4.0	-1.2	-3.9
Arizona	U T S A	49.3	31.3	48.6
Hawaii	Colorado	-16.8	-7.0	-15.9
Friday, September 4
Georgia St.	Charlotte	8.2	3.4	7.6
Western Michigan	Michigan St.	23.5	15.5	22.9
S M U	Baylor	-40.2	-29.9	-41.8
Illinois	Kent St.	21.3	14.4	18.5
Boise St.	Washington	16.3	12.3	16.1
Saturday, September 5
Georgia	Louisiana-Monroe	45.0	39.6	44.4
Northwestern	Stanford	12.7	7.6	14.6
Eastern Michigan	Old Dominion	6.9	2.8	6.2
Nebraska	B Y U	8.2	5.8	6.2
Temple	Penn St.	6.4	4.9	6.0
Tulsa	Florida Atlantic	7.5	10.5	8.0
Arkansas	U T E P	42.3	30.9	42.0
Auburn (N)	Louisville	11.8	7.5	9.9
U C L A	Virginia	27.2	22.4	26.4
Tennessee (N)	Bowling Green	32.2	20.4	29.8
N. Carolina St.	Troy	40.5	44.0	39.0
Oklahoma	Akron	44.6	31.5	41.5
Texas A&M (N)	Arizona St.	-0.8	2.6	-2.3
Kentucky	Louisiana-Lafayette	25.3	16.5	24.4
Notre Dame	Texas	13.1	10.1	12.6
West Virginia	Georgia Southern	33.9	25.3	32.9
Florida	N. Mexico St.	39.6	33.3	38.6
Northern Illinois	U N L V	18.2	18.6	18.8
Alabama (N)	Wisconsin	11.4	9.1	10.8
Florida St.	Texas St.	33.4	28.1	31.6
Southern Miss.	Mississippi St.	-25.4	-20.7	-27.1
U S C	Arkansas St.	36.8	31.0	40.9
Sunday, September 6
Marshall	Purdue	-1.0	-1.5	1.7
Monday, September 7
Virginia Tech	Ohio St.	-15.0	-6.5	-16.1

2015 Sun Belt Conference Preview

Today, the PiRate Ratings begins previewing the FBS conferences for 2015-16 with the Sun Belt Conference preview.  While this league has perennially been the weakest of the FBS conferences, the gap is closing thanks to a couple of new teams entering the league in recent years.

Last year, Georgia Southern became the first team since Arkansas St. in 2011 to run the table.  The Eagles were not bowl eligible in 2014, but they are now, and they figure to be in the hunt in the conference race.

Another team that can make a bowl trip for the first time this year is Appalachian St.  The Mountaineers, like Georgia Southern, have won a national championship, albeit in the FCS.  However, Appy State is most noted for upsetting Michigan at “The Big House.”

Arkansas St. had five different head coaches in the last five seasons, but the Red Wolves finally retained a coach in Blake Anderson.  Anderson’s Wolves should remain in contention in the SBC race.

Dennis Franchione is primed to take Texas St. to its first bowl after failing to garner a bid last year even though they were 7-5.

UL-Lafayette is looking to make it five consecutive trips to the New Orleans Bowl.  Chances are good the Ragin’ Cajuns will be bowl eligible again.

UL-Monroe and South Alabama should come up a bit short this year, while New Mexico St. and Georgia St. figure to improve a little in the standings.

Idaho and Troy figure to fight it out to avoid the cellar.

Here is the Sun Belt Conference Media Poll For 2015

Sun Belt Conference Media Poll
Pos.	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Georgia Southern	6	110
2	UL-Lafayette	3	108
3	Arkansas St.	1	96
4	Appalachian St.	0	82
5	Texas St.	0	78
6	South Alabama	1	68
7	UL-Monroe	0	59
8	Troy	0	39
9	Georgia St.	0	32
10	N. Mexico St.	0	30
11	Idaho	0	24

Here is the Preseason All-Conference team as voted by the media.

Sun Belt Conference Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense	Player		School
Quarterback	Fredi Knighten		Arkansas St.
Running Back	Matt Breida		Georgia Southern
Running Back	Elijah McGuire		UL-Lafayette
Wide Receiver	J. D. McKissic		Arkansas St.
Wide Receiver	Donovan Harden		Georgia St.
Wide Receiver	Rashon Ceaser		UL-Monroe
Tight End	Joel Ruiz		Georgia St.
Offensive Line	Jesse Chapman		Appalachian St.
Offensive Line	Darien Foreman		Georgia Southern
Offensive Line	Chris May		South Alabama
Offensive Line	Joseph Scelfo		South Alabama
Offensive Line	Adrian Bellard		Texas St.
Defense	Player		School
Defensive Line	Ronald Blair		Appalachian St.
Defensive Line	Ja’Von Rolland-Jones		Arkansas St.
Defensive Line	Chris Stone		Arkansas St.
Defensive Line	Gerrand Johnson		UL-Monroe
Linebacker	John Law		Appalachian St.
Linebacker	Xavier Woodson		Arkansas St.
Linebacker	Joseph Peterson		Georgia St.
Defensive Back	Doug Middleton		Appalachian St.
Defensive Back	Mitch Lane		UL-Monroe
Defensive Back	David Mims II		Texas St.
Defensive Back	Montres Kitchens		Troy
Special Teams	Player		School
Kicker	Aleem Sumanon		South Alabama
Punter	Austin Rehkow		Idaho
Return Specialist	Blaise Taylor		Arkansas St.

Here are the Preseason PiRate Ratings for the Sun Belt Conference

Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	91.9	95.1	94.0	93.7
Georgia Southern	91.4	93.9	91.5	92.3
Arkansas St.	88.5	89.1	89.2	88.9
Texas St.	84.1	89.1	84.4	85.9
UL-Lafayette	83.4	88.1	83.6	85.0
UL-Monroe	81.3	78.1	80.8	80.1
South Alabama	76.6	85.3	78.4	80.1
Georgia St.	75.0	73.1	74.1	74.1
New Mexico St.	74.7	76.1	75.0	75.3
Troy	71.2	70.1	71.8	71.0
Idaho	70.8	81.1	72.7	74.9
Sun Belt Averages	80.8	83.6	81.4	81.9

Here are the predicted regular season records for the Sun Belt Conference

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall	Bowl
1	Appalachian St.	7-1	10-2	GoDaddy
2	UL-Lafayette	6-2	8-4	New Orleans
3	Texas St.	6-2	8-4	Camelia
4	Georgia Southern	6-2	7-5	At-Large
5	Arkansas St.	6-2	7-5	Cure
6	UL-Monroe	4-4	5-8	None
7	South Alabama	3-5	4-8	None
8	N. Mexico St.	3-5	3-9	None
9	Georgia St.	1-7	3-9	None
10	Idaho	1-7	2-10	None
11	Troy	1-7	2-10	None

Final Four Preview–Semifinals

Team	Team	Tip Time	Network
Kentucky (38-0)	Wisconsin (35-3)	6:09 PM EDT	TBS
Duke (33-4)	Michigan St. (27-11)	8:49 PM EDT	TBS

Indianapolis will be rocking Saturday night as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four promises to be exciting with the potential for two close games.

The four teams share similar statistical competence where past National Champions have dominated, namely in rebounding.  As we told you a couple weeks ago, the one statistic that has 100% correlation with the National Champion is positive rebounding margin.  Since 1954, when complete rebounding statistics were archived, every National Champion has finished the season with positive rebounding margin.  This is not true for the other statistics, as we have crowned champions with negative field goal margin, negative turnover margin, and negative free throw margin.

This year is no different; the four combatants are all dominant rebounding teams, each outrebounding their opposition by more than five per game.

Looking back at the remaining Pirate Ratings Final Four Criteria, we have four teams that fit our mold like a glove.  All four have scoring margins greater than 8.0 per game, with three holding double-digit socring margins.  Two of the four hold 8% or greater field goal percentage margins, with one pushing that number into double digits.  Three of the four have better than 75% winning percentage away from their home floor, and all four have fat R+T ratings.

Final Four Offensive Statistics

Team	FG	FGA	3pt	3pta	FT	FTa	OR	DR	TO	Stl
Duke	1049	2090	277	711	567	816	432	935	408	265
Kentucky	980	2096	200	577	676	933	485	975	402	248
Michigan St.	992	2126	287	743	441	698	427	998	427	199
Wisconsin	966	2006	274	752	560	733	360	909	281	170

Final Four Defensive Statistics

Team	FG	FGA	3pt	3pta	FT	FTa	OR	DR	TO	Stl
Duke	915	2165	185	592	363	522	408	751	462	209
Kentucky	727	2068	168	629	425	650	451	730	523	181
Michigan St.	807	2054	222	702	565	783	371	840	409	208
Wisconsin	846	1987	195	522	308	439	285	766	367	154

Four Factors Statistics

Team	EFG	DEFG	OR%	DOR%	TO%	DTU%	FT*	DFT*
Duke	56.8	46.5	36.5	30.4	16.6	18.7	23.1	14.7
Kentucky	51.5	39.2	39.9	31.6	16.4	21.4	27.5	17.4
Michigan St.	53.4	44.7	33.7	27.1	17.4	16.6	17.9	22.9
Wisconsin	55.0	47.5	32.0	23.9	12.4	16.1	24.6	13.5

PiRate Ratings Criteria Statistics for Final Four

Team	PPG	D PPG	Mar.	FG-M	Rb-M	TO-M	R+T	WLRd	W-L	SOS	Poss.
Duke	79.5	64.3	15.2	7.9	5.6	1.5	16.6	14-2	33-4	61.8	66.3
Kentucky	74.6	53.9	20.8	11.6	7.3	3.2	22.4	18-0	38-0	58.7	64.6
Michigan St.	71.4	63.2	8.2	7.4	5.6	-0.5	13.9	13-6	27-11	67.0	64.7
Wisconsin	72.8	57.8	15.0	5.6	5.7	2.3	17.9	20-2	35-3	61.1	59.9

PiRate Ratings For Semifinal Round

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Kentucky	Wisconsin	3	3	6
Duke	Michigan St.	6	5	8

100 Computer Simulations For Semifinal Round

Kentucky vs. Wisconsin

Kentucky Wins: 94

Wisconsin Wins: 6

Average Score: Kentucky 71  Wisconsin 62

Outlier A: Kentucky 78  Wisconsin 62

Outlier B: Wisconsin 64  Kentucky 59

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke Wins: 84

Michigan St. Wins: 16

Average Score: Duke 77  Michigan St. 70

Outlier A: Duke 84  Michigan St. 62

Outlier B: Michigan St. 73  Duke 64

PiRate Ratings: NFL–September 26-30, 2013

Interesting Games This Week

Atlanta vs. New England

A loss at home this week could find the Falcons three games behind the Saints and possibly a game behind Carolina.  New England coach Bill Belichick is winning like he won with Cleveland—excellent defense and enough offense to get by.  When Rob Gronkowski is healthy enough to contribute, this team will be hard to beat if they continue to lead the AFC in scoring defense.

 

Cleveland vs. Cincinnati

This rivalry game is usually closer than the pointspread.  Should Cleveland find a way to pull off the upset at home, they will be tied with the Bengals at 2-2 and possible the Ravens as well.  Cinti must win this game to be considered one of the league’s elite.

 

Detroit vs. Chicago

The winner of this game will be in first place, and if the Bears are that team, they will open up a two game lead in the NFC North.  If Chicago wins this game, their schedule sets them up for a 7-0 or 6-1 record heading into their bye week and the trip to Lambeau Field.  Detroit appears to have the more difficult schedule in the next six weeks, so this game is more important to the Lions.

 

Houston vs. Seattle

All of a sudden, this game becomes a lot more important to the Texans than most thought a couple weeks ago.  After surviving an overtime thriller against Tennessee two weeks ago, Houston failed to show up against Baltimore.  If the Texans lose this game, they could fall to third place.  After this game, the Texans go to San Francisco.  Two weeks later, they play at Kansas City.  Following the bye, they host Indianapolis, so there are enough roadblocks to see this team failing to repeat as AFC South champions should they lose this game.

 

Seattle looks strong enough to earn home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and if this happens, they will be a heavy favorite to make the Super Bowl.  If they win this game, there is not much that can derail a minimum of a 12-4 regular season record with a ceiling of 15-1.

 

New Orleans vs. Miami

The winner of this game will be 4-0, and very few 4-0 teams fail to make the playoffs.  Go tell that to fans of the Arizona Cardinals.  The Saints could be on the verge of pulling away from the pack in the NFC South, while Miami is looking at a rough road until their bye week on November 3.  Their schedule after this game finds the Dolphins playing Baltimore, New England, and Cincinnati in October.  If Miami loses this game, they could easily be 4-4 at the halfway mark.

 

San Diego vs. Dallas

The Chargers have looked good in their losses to Houston and Tennessee, but they have been impressive losers in the past and not turn things around.  This game is a must-win for San Diego.  A Dallas win could open a two-game lead for the Cowboys in what now looks like one of the weakest divisions in the NFL.

 

St. Louis vs. San Francisco

Could the 49ers fall to 1-3 after the first quarter of the season?  It can happen, and if it does, where will that place Colin Kaepernick, and what will that say about Jim Harbaugh?  Now, if Alex Smith leads Kansas City to another victory to move the Chiefs to 4-0, and the Niners fall to 1-3, more than one football protagonist will start second-guessing Harbaugh’s decision to dump Smith.  Kaepernick is now 6-4 as the 49ers starter, while Smith is 8-2-1 in the past two years as a starter.

 

St. Louis won this game in overtime last year and later forced a tie at Candlestick Park.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Dallas Cowboys	102.5	105.0	102.6
New York Giants	96.6	95.7	95.1
Washington Redskins	95.3	94.7	94.6
Philadelphia Eagles	94.3	95.9	94.1
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	106.3	104.9	105.6
Chicago Bears	103.7	104.1	103.6
Detroit Lions	100.2	101.9	99.8
Minnesota Vikings	97.1	95.5	95.9
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	104.8	106.6	105.2
Atlanta Falcons	102.6	103.7	101.9
Carolina Panthers	100.5	100.2	100.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	97.0	95.6	96.9
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle Seahawks	109.0	109.4	109.6
San Francisco 49ers	103.0	102.2	103.1
St. Louis Rams	96.5	97.5	95.8
Arizona Cardinals	93.5	96.0	93.4
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	106.7	102.4	107.1
Miami Dolphins	100.8	102.1	101.8
New York Jets	97.8	95.2	98.3
Buffalo Bills	95.9	94.0	95.9
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore Ravens	104.1	103.5	103.9
Cincinnati Bengals	103.5	103.7	103.8
Cleveland Browns	96.3	96.4	96.7
Pittsburgh Steelers	95.6	94.5	94.7
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	102.8	102.0	103.2
Houston Texans	102.1	101.2	102.0
Tennessee Titans	100.0	99.7	100.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	88.1	87.3	87.9
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.9	112.0	111.5
Kansas City Chiefs	100.1	103.9	101.0
San Diego Chargers	98.9	100.1	99.8
Oakland Raiders	93.5	93.1	93.7

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	4
Date of Games:	September 26-30
Vegas Line As Of:
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Atlanta	New England	-1.1	4.3	-2.2
Buffalo	Baltimore	-5.7	-7.0	-5.5
Cleveland	Cincinnati	-5.2	-5.3	-5.1
Denver	Philadelphia	19.6	19.1	20.4
Detroit	Chicago	-1.0	0.3	-1.3
Houston	Seattle	-3.9	-5.2	-4.6
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	-12.2	-12.2	-12.8
Kansas City	N Y Giants	6.5	11.2	8.9
Minnesota (@ London)	Pittsburgh	1.5	1.0	1.2
New Orleans	Miami	7.0	7.5	6.4
Oakland	Washington	1.7	1.9	2.6
San Diego	Dallas	-0.6	-1.9	0.2
St. Louis	San Francisco	-3.5	-1.7	-4.3
Tampa Bay	Arizona	7.5	3.6	7.5
Tennessee	N Y Jets	5.2	7.5	5.5

 

PiRate Ratings: College Football–September 26-28, 2013

Interesting Games For Week 5

 

Thursday Night:

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

Usually when a spread option team that relies on the veer as its primary weapon breaks in a new starting quarterback, its offense suffers and takes several games to get in synch.  Vad Lee is not your typical new starter, as he receive a lot of playing time last year in Coach Paul Johnson’s option attack.  With Lee as the chief engineer, Tech’s offensive production has looked much like that of Oklahoma in the Barry Switzer days.  The Jackets average 345 rushing yards per game at a 5.7 yard per attempt clip, and they gain an average of 10.7 yards per passing attempt.  These are numbers of an offense that can score on anybody.  Now, add to that a much improved defense that yields just 275 yards per game, and you have a key contender in the Coastal Division of the ACC.

Virginia Tech has been quite the disappointment so far, even though the Hokies are 3-1 like they were expected to be after four games.  This is not the program it was two years ago, and the Va. Tech offense is in bad need of a tune-up.  The defense is still credible, but it will need an effort much like the 2009 defense if the Hokies are to return to Blacksburg with a 4-1 record.

Saturday

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

The Crimson Tide were as flat as Western Nebraska last week, as they slept walked through the Colorado St. game.  Ole Miss had an extra week to prepare for this game after the mild upset at Texas.

Last year, Ole Miss looked like they belonged in this game, even though Alabama won 33-14.  The Rebel defense limited ‘Bama’s production, but Alabama stopped the Rebel offense.  This year, we do not believe The Crimson Tide can stop the Ole Miss attack, because there are too many weapons.  Ole Miss will not put up 42 points like Johnny Football and his machine did two weeks ago, but then again, the Rebels will hold Alabama well below 49.

We may be totally off base here, but we see this one that will not be decided until the waning minutes of the game.  Ole Miss has a shot at the upset that will put them back on the national title contention map.  Check below to see how the PiRate Ratings call this game.  Our ratings do not always reflect how we feel about a game, since the ratings are chiefly mechanical and not influenced by our personal beliefs.

Washington St. vs. Stanford (game to be played in Seattle)

Stanford looked like a Rose Bowl team for two quarters, a Holiday Bowl team for one quarter, and Cal for one quarter last week against Arizona St.,  The Cardinal have yet to play 60 minutes of quality football.  Can they play 30 minutes of quality football, 15 minutes of okay football, and 15 minutes of mediocre football and pull out a Pac-12 win this week against an up and coming Cougar team?

This game will be played in Seattle, not Pullman, so Washington St. will not enjoy its usual home field advantage.  Still, the much-improved Cougars will play tough for four quarters.  This one could get interesting if WSU can keep it close in the first half.  The Pac-12 North rates a little ahead of the SEC West this week, so this game should definitely be on your watch list.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

These former Southwest Conference rivals square off in an important game in Fayetteville, and while it may not have division title implications, it is a key game for both teams.  How will the Aggies stop the Wisconsin-style ground game that Bret Bielema has brought to the SEC?  If Johnny Manziel doesn’t have the football, he cannot do his magic.  Had Arkansas beaten Rutgers last week, this game would have meant a lot more, but it still means a lot in the SEC.  An Arkansas victory gives the Razorbacks a 90-95% probability of getting bowl eligible this year.  An A&M victory keeps the Aggies in contention for a Sugar Bowl or other BCS Bowl bid.

Georgia vs. LSU

This one is our top game of the week.  The winner stays in contention for a National Championship.  The loser might be looking at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl for its ceiling.

The two quarterbacks in this game are as talented as the lower-tiered NFL starters.  Georgia’s Aaron Murray may be the better college QB, but LSU’s Zach Mettenberger may eventually be the better NFL QB.  New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has been an outstanding teacher, and the LSU passing game looks like the equal of its SEC brethren.  Add one of the top rushing attacks, and you have an offense that will light up the scoreboard.

Georgia is very similar to the Tigers, except the Bulldogs throw the ball a little better and are not as strong running the ball.

Both teams have room to improve on the defensive side, and that is what makes this game so interesting.  Which defense will step up and come up with enough big plays to hold the other team to about 30 points?  That team will be the winner.

Washington vs. Arizona

One of these teams will be an impressive 4-0 on Sunday morning.  Seldom since the 1970’s has there been a game between two major conference teams where both foes average better than 300 rushing yards per game.  This one does.  Of course, UW also averages more than 300 passing yards per game and looks like a team capable of beating Stanford and becoming the key competition to Oregon in the Pac-12 North.

Arizona is more one-dimensional in its zone-read offense.  The passing game will probably not beat a quality opponent if the running game is slowed.

What makes us think UW has the potential to compete with Oregon and Stanford is our belief that the Huskies still have room to improve on offense from A+ to A++.  Once All-American tight end Austin Seferrian-Jenkins is fully back to form after beginning the season under suspension, then the Huskies’ offense might be as potent as the Ducks.

If Arizona pulls off the upset, then the Wildcats will soar into the top 10 in the power ratings.

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma

The Irish now must consider this like a key conference game if they are to remain in contention for a BCS Bowl invitation.  They will get that invitation at 10-2, but 9-3 could find Notre Dame looking at a minor bowl.  With Arizona St., USC, and Stanford remaining on the schedule along with tricky games against Navy and at Pittsburgh, The Fighting Irish have a tough mountain to climb to get to 10-2.  A loss here Saturday leaves them no room for error the rest of the way.

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops has moaned about not getting enough respect.  Wins over Louisiana-Monroe, West Virginia, and Tulsa are not respect-earning victories.  TCU, Texas, and Kansas St. are no longer respect-earning victories.  That leaves Oklahoma St. and this game for OU to get the esteem they believe they should have.  If the Sooners drop what to OU fans is a must-win game, then Stoops will feel his seat warming up.

Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin

The interest in this game is two-fold.  First, the winner of this game is more than likely your Leaders’ Division Champion.  With Penn St. ineligible, and the rest of the division substandard to these two rivals, the winner of this game will have to lose twice in the league to fall below the loser.

The secondary interest in this game is the Buckeye quarterback situation.  Does Coach Urban Meyer go with Heisman Trophy contender Braxton Miller, or does he stick with the rifle-armed Kenny Guiton who merely guides OSU on touchdown drives more like the Buckeyes hail from Eugene, Oregon.

He won’t ask our opinion, but if it were up to us, we would stick with the hot hand.  It is similar to when Wally Pipp was injured for the 1925 Yankees.  The backup, some kid named Gehrig, immediately proved that he was the best first baseman in the Majors.  Guiton looks like the best passer in the Big Ten and one of the top in the nation.  Putting Miller in as starter could only damage the Buckeye offense.  He will be rusty, and OSU can ill-afford to stumble for two or three series while hoping he gets untracked.  Miller can easily be inserted into the game for a series here and there after Guiton has worked his magic once again.

It is our belief that the only way Ohio St. can lose this game is if Miller starts and is off his game.  A typical showing from Guiton makes the Buckeyes too strong for any Big Ten opponent.

This Week’s PiRate Power Rankings

PiRate Regular
1	Oregon	133.9
2	Alabama	130.5
3	Stanford	124.9
4	Ole Miss	124.9
5	Oklahoma St.	122.6
6	Ohio St.	122.2
7	Texas A&M	122.1
8	Baylor	121.5
9	L S U	121.3
10	Georgia	121.2
11	Washington	120.4
12	South Carolina	119.9
13	Arizona	119.5
14	Florida St.	119.0
15	Louisville	118.3
16	U C L A	118.3
17	Florida	118.0
18	Texas	116.5
19	Clemson	116.4
20	Missouri	116.2
21	Wisconsin	116.2
22	Arizona St.	116.2
23	Notre Dame	115.7
24	Oklahoma	115.6
25	Miami	115.4
26	Georgia Tech	114.7
27	Michigan St.	114.6
28	Oregon St.	113.4
29	Northwestern	113.3
30	Michigan	113.1
31	T C U	113.1
32	U S C	112.5
33	Nebraska	112.0
34	Mississippi St.	111.1
35	Penn St.	110.6
36	Kansas St.	108.9
37	Virginia Tech	108.8
38	Texas Tech	108.6
39	B Y U	108.5
40	Vanderbilt	107.3
41	Auburn	107.1
42	North Carolina	106.7
43	Washington St.	106.2
44	Utah	105.3
45	Cincinnati	104.7
46	Tennessee	104.5
47	Syracuse	104.2
48	Minnesota	103.8
49	Utah St.	103.8
50	Central Florida	103.4
51	Iowa	103.3
52	Maryland	103.0
53	Fresno St.	103.0
54	Indiana	102.9
55	Boise St.	100.8
56	Toledo	100.6
57	Arkansas	100.2
58	Boston College	100.2
59	Pittsburgh	99.9
60	Bowling Green	99.9
61	Illinois	99.8
62	Rutgers	99.5
63	San Jose St.	99.4
64	Kentucky	99.0
65	Marshall	98.9
66	Ball St.	98.9
67	West Virginia	98.4
68	East Carolina	98.2
69	Iowa St.	98.1
70	Northern Illinois	97.8
71	Navy	97.6
72	Duke	97.1
73	North Carolina St.	97.0
74	Wake Forest	97.0
75	California	96.3
76	Rice	96.0
77	Purdue	95.7
78	Virginia	94.1
79	Louisiana–Monroe	94.1
80	San Diego St.	93.8
81	Wyoming	93.6
82	North Texas	93.6
83	Tulsa	93.6
84	Colorado St.	93.5
85	S M U	93.3
86	Houston	93.0
87	Kansas	92.9
88	Louisiana–Lafayette	92.6
89	Ohio	92.1
90	Colorado	92.0
91	Arkansas St.	91.4
92	Connecticut	90.8
93	U T S A	90.0
94	Memphis	89.9
95	Western Kentucky	89.9
96	Buffalo	89.7
97	South Florida	89.3
98	Nevada	89.1
99	U A B	87.6
100	Kent St.	87.3
101	Middle Tennessee	87.1
102	Temple	86.7
103	U N L V	85.6
104	Florida Atlantic	85.2
105	U T E P	83.9
106	Army	83.8
107	Hawaii	83.4
108	Troy	83.2
109	Louisiana Tech	83.2
110	Akron	83.1
111	South Alabama	82.9
112	Tulane	82.0
113	Texas St.	81.7
114	Central Michigan	81.6
115	Southern Miss.	81.3
116	Western Michigan	79.9
117	New Mexico	79.3
118	Miami (O)	78.9
119	Eastern Michigan	77.7
120	Air Force	75.7
121	New Mexico St.	74.0
122	Massachusetts	72.6
123	Idaho	69.1
124	Florida Int’l	66.0
125	Georgia St.	60.2

 

PiRate Mean
1	Oregon	129.8
2	Alabama	123.9
3	Florida St.	122.7
4	L S U	120.5
5	Ole Miss	120.5
6	Ohio St.	119.5
7	Georgia	118.7
8	Texas A&M	118.1
9	South Carolina	117.9
10	Arizona St.	117.3
11	Wisconsin	117.2
12	Louisville	116.9
13	Miami	116.5
14	Washington	116.1
15	Clemson	116.0
16	Stanford	116.0
17	Arizona	114.6
18	Michigan St.	114.5
19	Georgia Tech	114.3
20	Florida	114.0
21	Penn St.	113.8
22	Missouri	113.5
23	Baylor	112.9
24	Oklahoma St.	112.6
25	Notre Dame	112.4
26	U C L A	112.2
27	Oklahoma	111.4
28	Michigan	111.2
29	Northwestern	110.9
30	U S C	109.8
31	Maryland	109.5
32	Virginia Tech	109.2
33	North Carolina	109.0
34	Nebraska	109.0
35	Mississippi St.	107.8
36	T C U	107.4
37	Texas	107.0
38	Auburn	106.9
39	Texas Tech	106.8
40	Washington St.	106.7
41	B Y U	106.6
42	Indiana	106.4
43	Arkansas	106.2
44	Central Florida	105.6
45	Cincinnati	105.2
46	Utah	105.0
47	Vanderbilt	104.9
48	Minnesota	103.8
49	Illinois	103.7
50	Tennessee	103.7
51	Rutgers	103.4
52	Marshall	103.2
53	Oregon St.	102.9
54	Houston	102.7
55	North Carolina St.	102.7
56	Iowa	102.7
57	Ball St.	102.5
58	Syracuse	102.3
59	Fresno St.	101.5
60	Toledo	101.5
61	Kansas St.	101.0
62	Utah St.	100.9
63	Wake Forest	100.8
64	East Carolina	100.3
65	Rice	100.1
66	Navy	99.8
67	Bowling Green	99.7
68	Kentucky	99.6
69	Northern Illinois	99.0
70	Boston College	98.5
71	Pittsburgh	98.1
72	Virginia	97.5
73	Colorado	97.5
74	Duke	97.5
75	S M U	97.0
76	Memphis	97.0
77	Ohio	95.6
78	Boise St.	95.4
79	North Texas	95.4
80	Wyoming	95.3
81	San Jose St.	94.5
82	Louisiana–Monroe	94.2
83	Colorado St.	93.0
84	Middle Tennessee	92.9
85	Nevada	92.4
86	Purdue	92.3
87	U T S A	92.1
88	California	91.8
89	Western Kentucky	91.5
90	West Virginia	91.4
91	Tulsa	90.6
92	Army	90.6
93	Louisiana–Lafayette	90.3
94	Kent St.	90.3
95	Kansas	90.2
96	San Diego St.	90.1
97	Buffalo	90.0
98	U A B	89.7
99	U T E P	89.5
100	Texas St.	88.3
101	U N L V	88.2
102	Iowa St.	88.0
103	Akron	87.7
104	South Alabama	87.4
105	Tulane	87.4
106	Arkansas St.	86.9
107	Connecticut	86.2
108	New Mexico	85.5
109	Temple	85.1
110	Florida Atlantic	84.8
111	Louisiana Tech	84.7
112	Troy	83.9
113	Central Michigan	83.5
114	Hawaii	83.5
115	Miami (O)	82.8
116	South Florida	82.3
117	Eastern Michigan	81.9
118	Massachusetts	81.3
119	Southern Miss.	80.7
120	Western Michigan	80.7
121	Air Force	79.9
122	New Mexico St.	78.7
123	Idaho	77.4
124	Georgia St.	69.4
125	Florida Int’l	68.2
PiRate Bias
1	Oregon	135.5
2	Alabama	131.3
3	Ole Miss	125.2
4	Stanford	123.8
5	Oklahoma St.	123.4
6	Ohio St.	122.5
7	Baylor	122.5
8	L S U	122.3
9	Texas A&M	122.2
10	Washington	121.4
11	Georgia	121.4
12	Florida St.	120.9
13	Louisville	120.3
14	South Carolina	119.6
15	Arizona	118.3
16	Clemson	117.3
17	U C L A	117.2
18	Florida	116.5
19	Wisconsin	116.4
20	Arizona St.	116.0
21	Miami	115.6
22	Georgia Tech	115.6
23	Oklahoma	115.6
24	Missouri	115.5
25	Texas	115.2
26	Northwestern	113.8
27	Notre Dame	113.7
28	T C U	113.3
29	Michigan St.	112.7
30	Michigan	112.3
31	U S C	112.3
32	Mississippi St.	111.3
33	Oregon St.	111.3
34	Nebraska	110.3
35	Penn St.	110.2
36	B Y U	108.9
37	Texas Tech	108.5
38	Virginia Tech	108.2
39	Kansas St.	107.5
40	North Carolina	107.3
41	Washington St.	107.2
42	Vanderbilt	106.5
43	Auburn	106.2
44	Utah St.	105.8
45	Maryland	105.5
46	Utah	105.5
47	Cincinnati	105.1
48	Central Florida	104.3
49	Iowa	104.2
50	Fresno St.	103.7
51	Syracuse	103.6
52	Tennessee	103.3
53	Minnesota	103.2
54	Indiana	102.8
55	Boise St.	101.8
56	Toledo	101.7
57	Bowling Green	101.1
58	Marshall	101.0
59	Boston College	100.5
60	Illinois	100.4
61	Ball St.	100.2
62	Rutgers	100.0
63	East Carolina	99.5
64	San Jose St.	99.5
65	Pittsburgh	99.3
66	Arkansas	98.8
67	Northern Illinois	98.5
68	North Carolina St.	98.0
69	Navy	97.7
70	Kentucky	97.5
71	Rice	97.1
72	Wake Forest	97.1
73	West Virginia	96.5
74	Duke	96.2
75	Iowa St.	96.2
76	Wyoming	96.0
77	Houston	94.5
78	Virginia	94.4
79	California	94.3
80	San Diego St.	94.3
81	Colorado St.	94.2
82	North Texas	94.1
83	Louisiana–Monroe	93.5
84	Ohio	93.4
85	Purdue	93.0
86	S M U	92.7
87	Louisiana–Lafayette	92.7
88	Tulsa	92.6
89	Kansas	91.6
90	Connecticut	91.3
91	Memphis	90.7
92	Arkansas St.	90.7
93	U T S A	90.3
94	Western Kentucky	90.3
95	Colorado	90.1
96	Buffalo	89.8
97	Nevada	89.4
98	South Florida	88.0
99	U A B	87.8
100	Kent St.	87.6
101	Middle Tennessee	87.5
102	U N L V	86.0
103	Temple	85.4
104	Florida Atlantic	85.3
105	Army	84.9
106	U T E P	84.0
107	Troy	83.9
108	South Alabama	83.9
109	Hawaii	83.6
110	Akron	83.5
111	Louisiana Tech	82.6
112	Tulane	81.9
113	Texas St.	81.3
114	Southern Miss.	81.3
115	Western Michigan	80.9
116	Central Michigan	80.7
117	New Mexico	79.5
118	Miami (O)	77.6
119	Eastern Michigan	77.1
120	Air Force	75.5
121	New Mexico St.	73.9
122	Massachusetts	72.8
123	Idaho	68.5
124	Florida Int’l	65.6
125	Georgia St.	61.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	0-0	4-0	118.3	116.9	120.3
Cincinnati	0-0	3-1	104.7	105.2	105.1
Central Florida	0-0	3-0	103.4	105.6	104.3
Rutgers	0-0	3-1	99.5	103.4	100.0
S M U	0-0	1-2	93.3	97.0	92.7
Houston	1-0	3-0	93.0	102.7	94.5
Connecticut	0-0	0-3	90.8	86.2	91.3
Memphis	0-0	1-2	89.9	97.0	90.7
South Florida	0-0	0-3	89.3	82.3	88.0
Temple	0-1	0-3	86.7	85.1	85.4
League Averages			96.9	98.1	97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida St.	1-0	3-0	119.0	122.7	120.9
Clemson	1-0	3-0	116.4	116.0	117.3
Syracuse	0-0	2-2	104.2	102.3	103.6
Maryland	0-0	4-0	103.0	109.5	105.5
Boston College	1-0	2-1	100.2	98.5	100.5
North Carolina St.	0-1	2-1	97.0	102.7	98.0
Wake Forest	0-1	2-2	97.0	100.8	97.1
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami	0-0	3-0	115.4	116.5	115.6
Georgia Tech	2-0	3-0	114.7	114.3	115.6
Virginia Tech	0-0	3-1	108.8	109.2	108.2
North Carolina	0-1	1-2	106.7	109.0	107.3
Pittsburgh	1-1	2-1	99.9	98.1	99.3
Duke	0-2	2-2	97.1	97.5	96.2
Virginia	0-0	2-1	94.1	97.5	94.4
League Averages			105.3	106.8	105.7

 

Big 12 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma St.	0-0	3-0	122.6	112.6	123.4
Baylor	0-0	3-0	121.5	112.9	122.5
Texas	1-0	2-2	116.5	107.0	115.2
Oklahoma	1-0	3-0	115.6	111.4	115.6
T C U	0-1	1-2	113.1	107.4	113.3
Kansas St.	0-1	2-2	108.9	101.0	107.5
Texas Tech	1-0	4-0	108.6	106.8	108.5
West Virginia	0-1	2-2	98.4	91.4	96.5
Iowa St.	0-0	0-2	98.1	88.0	96.2
Kansas	0-0	2-1	92.9	90.2	91.6
League Averages			109.6	102.9	109.0

 

Big Ten Conference
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean		Bias
Ohio St.	0-0		4-0		122.2		119.5		122.5
Wisconsin	1-0		3-1		116.2		117.2		116.4
Penn St.	0-0		3-1		110.6		113.8		110.2
Indiana	0-0		2-2		102.9		106.4		102.8
Illinois	0-0		2-1		99.8		103.7		100.4
Purdue	0-1		1-3		95.7		92.3		93.0
Legends Division
Team	Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean		Bias
Michigan St.	0-0		3-1		114.6		114.5		112.7
Northwestern	0-0		4-0		113.3		110.9		113.8
Michigan	0-0		4-0		113.1		111.2		112.3
Nebraska	0-0		3-1		112.0		109.0		110.3
Minnesota	0-0		4-0		103.8		103.8		103.2
Iowa	0-0		3-1		103.3		102.7		104.2
League Averages					109.0		108.8		108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team		Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean		Bias
Marshall		0-0		2-2		98.9		103.2		101.0
East Carolina		1-0		2-1		98.2		100.3		99.5
U A B		0-0		1-2		87.6		89.7		87.8
Middle Tennessee		1-0		3-1		87.1		92.9		87.5
Florida Atlantic		0-2		1-3		85.2		84.8		85.3
Southern Miss.		0-0		0-3		81.3		80.7		81.3
Florida Int’l		0-0		0-4		66.0		68.2		65.6
West Division
Team		Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean		Bias
Rice		0-0		1-2		96.0		100.1		97.1
North Texas		0-0		2-2		93.6		95.4		94.1
Tulsa		0-0		1-2		93.6		90.6		92.6
U T S A		1-0		2-2		90.0		92.1		90.3
U T E P		0-1		1-2		83.9		89.5		84.0
Louisiana Tech		0-1		1-3		83.2		84.7		82.6
Tulane		1-0		2-2		82.0		87.4		81.9
League Averages						87.6		90.0		87.9

 

Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Notre Dame		3-1	115.7	112.4	113.7
B Y U		1-2	108.5	106.6	108.9
Navy		2-0	97.6	99.8	97.7
Army		1-3	83.8	90.6	84.9
New Mexico St.		0-4	74.0	78.7	73.9
Idaho		0-4	69.1	77.4	68.5
Independent Avg’s.			91.5	94.3	91.3

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	1-0	3-1	99.9	99.7	101.1
Ohio	0-0	3-1	92.1	95.6	93.4
Buffalo	0-0	1-2	89.7	90.0	89.8
Kent St.	0-1	1-3	87.3	90.3	87.6
Akron	0-0	1-3	83.1	87.7	83.5
Miami (O)	0-0	0-3	78.9	82.8	77.6
Massachusetts	0-0	0-4	72.6	81.3	72.8
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	1-0	2-2	100.6	101.5	101.7
Ball St.	1-0	3-1	98.9	102.5	100.2
Northern Illinois	0-0	3-0	97.8	99.0	98.5
Central Michigan	0-1	1-3	81.6	83.5	80.7
Western Michigan	0-0	0-4	79.9	80.7	80.9
Eastern Michigan	0-1	1-3	77.7	81.9	77.1
League Averages			87.7	90.5	88.1

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah St.	1-0	2-2	103.8	100.9	105.8
Boise St.	1-1	2-2	100.8	95.4	101.8
Wyoming	1-0	3-1	93.6	95.3	96.0
Colorado St.	0-0	1-3	93.5	93.0	94.2
New Mexico	0-0	1-2	79.3	85.5	79.5
Air Force	0-3	1-3	75.7	79.9	75.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	1-0	3-0	103.0	101.5	103.7
San Jose St.	0-0	1-2	99.4	94.5	99.5
San Diego St.	0-0	0-3	93.8	90.1	94.3
Nevada	1-0	2-2	89.1	92.4	89.4
U N L V	0-0	2-2	85.6	88.2	86.0
Hawaii	0-1	0-3	83.4	83.5	83.6
League Averages			91.8	91.7	92.4
Pacific 12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	0-0	3-0	133.9	129.8	135.5
Stanford	1-0	3-0	124.9	116.0	123.8
Washington	0-0	3-0	120.4	116.1	121.4
Oregon St.	1-0	3-1	113.4	102.9	111.3
Washington St.	1-0	3-1	106.2	106.7	107.2
California	0-0	1-2	96.3	91.8	94.3
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona	0-0	3-0	119.5	114.6	118.3
U C L A	0-0	3-0	118.3	112.2	117.2
Arizona St.	0-1	2-1	116.2	117.3	116.0
U S C	0-1	3-1	112.5	109.8	112.3
Utah	0-1	3-1	105.3	105.0	105.5
Colorado	0-0	2-0	92.0	97.5	90.1
League Averages			113.2	110.0	112.7

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.				Overall			PiRate		Mean			Bias
Georgia	1-0				2-1			121.2		118.7			121.4
South Carolina	1-1				2-1			119.9		117.9			119.6
Florida	1-0				2-1			118.0		114.0			116.5
Missouri	0-0				3-0			116.2		113.5			115.5
Vanderbilt	0-2				2-2			107.3		104.9			106.5
Tennessee	0-1				2-2			104.5		103.7			103.3
Kentucky	0-0				1-2			99.0		99.6			97.5
West Division
Team	Conf.				Overall			PiRate		Mean			Bias
Alabama	1-0				3-0			130.5		123.9			131.3
Ole Miss	1-0				3-0			124.9		120.5			125.2
Texas A&M	0-1				3-1			122.1		118.1			122.2
L S U	1-0				4-0			121.3		120.5			122.3
Mississippi St.	0-1				2-2			111.1		107.8			111.3
Auburn	1-1				3-1			107.1		106.9			106.2
Arkansas	0-0				3-1			100.2		106.2			98.8
League Averages								114.5		112.6			114.1
Sunbelt Conference
Team		Conf.				Overall			PiRate			Mean			Bias
Louisiana–Lafayette		0-0				2-2			94.1			94.2			93.5
Louisiana–Monroe		0-0				2-2			92.6			90.3			92.7
Arkansas St.		1-0				2-2			91.4			86.9			90.7
Western Kentucky		0-1				2-2			89.9			91.5			90.3
Troy		0-1				2-2			83.2			83.9			83.9
South Alabama		1-0				2-1			82.9			87.4			83.9
Texas St.		0-0				2-1			81.7			88.3			81.3
Georgia St.		0-0				0-4			60.2			69.4			61.6
League Averages									84.5			86.5			84.7
Transitioning Teams
Team				Overall			PiRate				Mean			Bias
Georgia Southern				2-1			85.9				88.3			93.0
Old Dominion				2-2			81.0				81.8			88.0
Appalachian St.				1-2			79.1				77.8			86.2
Charlotte				2-2			57.0				61.6			64.1
Not figured in regular averages to 100

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Date:	September 26-28, 2013
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	8.9	8.1	10.4
Tulsa	Iowa St.	-1.5	5.6	-0.6
B Y U	Middle Tennessee	25.4	17.7	25.4
San Jose St.	Utah St.	-1.4	-3.4	-3.3
Alabama	Ole Miss	8.6	6.4	9.1
Arizona St.	U S C	6.7	10.5	6.7
Arkansas	Texas A&M	-18.9	-8.9	-20.4
Ball St.	Toledo	0.8	3.5	1.0
Boise St.	Southern Miss.	23.0	18.2	24.0
Boston College	Florida St.	-15.8	-21.2	-17.4
Bowling Green	Akron	19.3	14.5	20.1
Buffalo	Connecticut	1.4	6.3	1.0
Central Florida	South Carolina	-13.5	-9.3	-12.3
Clemson	Wake Forest	22.4	18.2	23.2
Colorado St.	U T E P	12.6	6.5	13.2
Duke	Troy	16.9	16.6	15.3
Georgia	L S U	2.9	1.2	2.1
Hawaii	Fresno St.	-15.6	-14.0	-16.1
Idaho	Temple	-14.6	-4.7	-13.9
Illinois	Miami (O)	23.9	23.9	25.8
Kentucky	Florida	-16.0	-11.4	-16.0
Louisiana Tech (a)	Army	-0.6	-5.9	-2.3
Minnesota	Iowa	3.5	4.1	2.0
Missouri	Arkansas St.	27.8	29.6	27.8
Nevada	Air Force	16.4	15.5	16.9
New Mexico	U N L V	-3.8	-0.2	-4.0
New Mexico St.	San Diego St.	-17.3	-8.9	-17.9
North Carolina	East Carolina	11.5	11.7	10.8
North Carolina St.	Central Michigan	18.4	22.2	20.3
Notre Dame	Oklahoma	3.1	4.0	1.1
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	9.0	5.3	9.1
Oregon	California	40.6	41.0	44.2
Oregon St.	Colorado	24.4	8.4	24.2
Pittsburgh	Virginia	8.8	3.6	7.9
Purdue	Northern Illinois	0.9	-3.7	-2.5
Rice	Florida Atlantic	13.3	17.8	14.3
South Florida	Miami (Fl)	-24.1	-32.2	-25.6
T C U	S M U	21.8	12.4	22.6
Tennessee	South Alabama	24.6	19.3	22.4
Texas St.	Wyoming	-9.4	-4.5	-12.2
U T S A	Houston	-1.0	-8.6	-2.2
UL-Monroe	Tulane	13.1	5.4	13.3
Vanderbilt	U A B	22.2	17.7	21.2
Washington	Arizona	3.9	4.5	6.1
Washington St. (b)	Stanford	-16.7	-7.3	-14.6
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	-21.2	-18.2	-23.9
Western Kentucky	Navy	-5.2	-5.8	-4.9
Western Michigan	Kent St.	-4.9	-7.1	-4.2
(a) Neutral Site Game at Dallas
(b) Game Played in Seattle

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Bowl Projections

GAME	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Wyoming	vs.	Washington St.
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas	Boise St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Famous Idaho Potato	(U T S A)	vs.	Toledo
New Orleans	UL-Lafayette	vs.	Rice
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s	(Arkansas St.)	vs.	East Carolina
Hawai’i	(Ohio)	vs.	North Texas
Little Caesars Pizza	Bowling Green	vs.	Illinois
Poinsettia	Utah St.	vs.	(Oregon St.)
Military Bowl	Pittsburgh	vs.	Marshall
Texas	Nebraska	vs.	Kansas St.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	U S C	vs.	B Y U
Pinstripe	Rutgers	vs.	(Notre Dame)
Belk	Houston	vs.	North Carolina
Russell Athletic	Central Florida	vs.	Georgia Tech
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Texas	vs.	Northwestern
Armed Forces	San Jose St.	vs.	Navy
Music City	North Carolina St.	vs.	Florida
Alamo	Baylor	vs.	Stanford
Holiday	Texas Tech	vs.	Washington
AdvoCare V100 Bowl	(Ball St.)	vs.	Virginia Tech
Sun	Maryland	vs.	Arizona
Liberty	Mississippi St.	vs.	Tulsa
Chick-fil-A	Miami	vs.	South Carolina
Heart Of Dallas	Middle Tennessee	vs.	Iowa
Gator	Michigan St.	vs.	Missouri
Outback	Texas A&M	vs.	Michigan
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Georgia
Rose	Ohio St.	vs.	U C L A
Fiesta	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Fresno St.
Sugar	L S U	vs.	Clemson
Cotton	Ole Miss	vs.	Oklahoma
Orange	Florida St.	vs.	Louisville
BBVA Compass Bowl	Cincinnati	vs.	Auburn
GoDaddy.com	Texas St.	vs.	Northern Illinois
BCS Championship	Oregon	vs.	Alabama

Coming Up

Wednesday—New NFL PiRate Ratings and Spreads for Week 4

Thursday—PiRate Picks for College Week 5 & NFL Week 4

 

*** Thank You For Your Patronage ***

 

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 8–October 30-31, 2011

The PiRate Ratings For All League Champions Since 1960

The PiRate Ratings were not born until 1969, and then they only rated college football teams.  We began rating college basketball teams in the mid-1970’s and quit rating them after our founder stopped writing for newspaper publication in 1982.

 

In 1979, we began compiling NFL football ratings, but we have reversed engineered our formulas beginning with the 1960 season when the American Football League began.  At some point in the future, we may go back farther to the earlier days of the NFL and even the AAFC, but we do not have access to the necessary data as of yet.

 

Here is a list of the league champions from 1960 to 2010. 

 

Note: The PiRate Ratings were adjusted after the 2011 Super Bowl, and the ratings shown are the adjusted ratings in order to compare current teams to the historic ratings.  Remember, the PiRate Ratings are based on 100 being average.  A rating of 110 means the team is 10 points better than the average team (what would be considered an 8-8 team that scores 22.5 points per game and gives up 22.5 points per game to an average schedule of like 8-8 teams {6-6 in 12-game schedule and 7-7 in 14-game schedule}).

 

Year	NFL/NFC	Rating	AFL/AFC	Rating
1960	Philadelphia	108.2	Houston	96.7
1961	Green Bay	111.1	Houston	101.4
1962	Green Bay	113.8	Dallas	100.6
1963	Chicago	106.1	San Diego	104.4
1964	Cleveland	107.5	Buffalo	103.1
1965	Green Bay	109.0	Buffalo	100.7
1966	Green Bay	112.6	Kansas City	102.1
1967	Green Bay	110.3	Oakland	105.2
1968	Baltimore	111.1	New York Jets	104.6
1969	Minnesota	110.8	Kansas City	101.6
1970	Dallas	105.4	Baltimore	105.8
1971	Dallas	109.7	Miami	104.3
1972	Washington	108.5	Miami	109.5
1973	Minnesota	107.2	Miami	112.0
1974	Minnesota	107.1	Pittsburgh	109.3
1975	Dallas	108.2	Pittsburgh	110.1
1976	Minnesota	109.4	Oakland	111.6
1977	Dallas	110.3	Denver	106.1
1978	Dallas	109.7	Pittsburgh	109.9
1979	Los Angeles	103.8	Pittsburgh	110.1
1980	Philadelphia	107.8	Oakland	108.9
1981	San Francisco	110.2	Cincinnati	106.9
1982	Washington	109.4	Miami	107.8
1983	Washington	112.1	Los Angeles	110.5
1984	San Francisco	114.5	Miami	111.6
1985	Chicago	116.2	New England	105.6
1986	New York Giants	112.3	Denver	106.2
1987	Washington	105.2	Denver	104.5
1988	San Francisco	104.7	Cincinnati	105.8
1989	San Francisco	113.9	Denver	103.6
1990	New York Giants	108.7	Buffalo	108.6
1991	Washington	112.6	Buffalo	109.8
1992	Dallas	111.7	Buffalo	105.3
1993	Dallas	109.8	Buffalo	108.3
1994	San Francisco	110.1	San Diego	106.2
1995	Dallas	107.8	Pittsburgh	105.8
1996	Green Bay	110.5	New England	104.4
1997	Green Bay	109.6	Denver	109.2
1998	Atlanta	111.1	Denver	113.5
1999	St. Louis	110.4	Tennessee	108.6
2000	New York Giants	108.6	Baltimore	109.1
2001	St. Louis	110.6	New England	106.3
2002	Tampa Bay	108.2	Oakland	106.0
2003	Carolina	105.9	New England	112.4
2004	Philadelphia	108.5	New England	112.6
2005	Seattle	108.7	Pittsburgh	107.9
2006	Chicago	109.1	Indianapolis	108.7
2007	New York Giants	107.3	New England	115.7
2008	Arizona	103.1	Pittsburgh	110.1
2009	New Orleans	109.6	Indianapolis	110.1
2010	Green Bay	105.7	Pittsburgh	109.1

 

 

Back To The Present

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings.

 

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Dallas Cowboys	103.3	103.0	102.6	0.5	3	–	3	–	0	149	128
New York Giants	102.5	100.3	103.1	1.5	4	–	2	–	0	154	147
Philadelphia Eagles	101.7	101.3	101.6	2	2	–	4	–	0	145	145
Washington Redskins	93.7	95.5	95.0	3.5	3	–	3	–	0	116	116
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	110.5	110.4	108.8	2.5	7	–	0	–	0	230	141
Chicago Bears	103.9	103.3	104.7	3	4	–	3	–	0	170	150
Detroit Lions	101.2	103.4	104.3	2	5	–	2	–	0	194	137
Minnesota Vikings	96.5	96.9	95.5	4	1	–	6	–	0	148	178
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	109.8	107.1	106.1	3.5	5	–	2	–	0	239	158
Atlanta Falcons	103.9	102.6	104.7	2.5	4	–	3	–	0	158	163
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	98.5	99.0	99.4	3.5	4	–	3	–	0	131	169
Carolina Panthers	95.9	95.0	97.8	2.5	2	–	5	–	0	166	183
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	104.4	106.3	104.8	3	5	–	1	–	0	167	97
Seattle Seahawks	94.1	94.9	93.4	2	2	–	4	–	0	97	128
Arizona Cardinals	91.7	91.9	94.0	2.5	1	–	5	–	0	116	153
St. Louis Rams	90.1	87.8	87.6	1.5	0	–	6	–	0	56	171
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	107.6	108.9	105.7	3.5	5	–	1	–	0	185	135
New York Jets	104.3	104.3	104.9	3	4	–	3	–	0	172	152
Buffalo Bills	100.1	102.1	104.2	2.5	4	–	2	–	0	188	147
Miami Dolphins	95.0	93.8	93.5	3	0	–	6	–	0	90	146
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	106.9	107.4	106.3	3.5	4	–	2	–	0	155	83
Pittsburgh Steelers	105.6	104.4	104.0	2.5	5	–	2	–	0	151	122
Cincinnati Bengals	97.9	100.6	100.8	1	4	–	2	–	0	137	111
Cleveland Browns	94.1	95.0	96.9	3	3	–	3	–	0	97	120
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	106.7	105.3	104.0	2	4	–	3	–	0	182	131
Jacksonville Jaguars	98.5	96.5	96.1	2	2	–	5	–	0	84	139
Tennessee Titans	97.1	97.0	96.0	1.5	3	–	3	–	0	112	135
Indianapolis Colts	91.7	91.4	88.1	3.5	0	–	7	–	0	111	225
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	103.0	102.3	101.1	2.5	4	–	2	–	0	141	136
Kansas City Chiefs	99.4	97.8	98.7	1	3	–	3	–	0	105	150
Oakland Raiders	97.5	99.7	99.6	2	4	–	3	–	0	160	178
Denver Broncos	93.7	95.1	96.8	1	2	–	4	–	0	123	155

 

And here are the PiRate Ratings for this week’s games.

 

(N) denotes Neutral Site

Vegas Line and Totals as of Tuesday, October 25, 2011  4:30 PM EDT

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
TENNESSEE	Indianapolis	8.9	9.1	11.4	9	43 1/2
HOUSTON	Jacksonville	10.2	10.8	9.9	9 1/2	40 1/2
CAROLINA	Minnesota	1.9	0.6	4.8	3 1/2	47 1/2
New Orleans	ST. LOUIS	17.7	17.3	16.5	15 1/2	47 1/2
BALTIMORE	Arizona	18.7	19.0	15.8	13	44
NEW YORK GIANTS	Miami	9.0	8.0	11.1	10	43
Buffalo (N) (Toronto)	Washington	6.4	6.6	9.2	6	46
Detroit	DENVER	5.0	5.8	5.0	3 1/2	44
PITTSBURGH	New England	1.0	-1.5	1.3	-3	51
SAN FRANCISCO	Cleveland	12.8	13.8	10.4	9 1/2	38 1/2
Cincinnati	SEATTLE	2.3	4.2	5.9	3	38
PHILADELPHIA	Dallas	0.4	0.3	1.0	3 1/2	50 1/2
San Diego	KANSAS CITY	2.6	3.5	1.4	3 1/2	44

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 7–October 23-24, 2011

Two Big Rivalries Renewed This Week

First, let us give ourselves a hearty slap on the back for jinxing the possible monumental Thanksgiving Day game between Green Bay and Detroit.  The 49ers had the last slap laugh in that matter.

 

Speaking of Green Bay, the Packers and Vikings renew their rivalry at Lambeau Field this Sunday.  In the AFC, the Chiefs and Raiders square off in Oakland.  These two games are two of the best all-time rivalry games over the last 50 years.  In this writer’s opinion, both rivalries matured at the same time the Super Bowl came into existence.  Let’s take a look at the key games to show you that you never can predict these games.

 

Green Bay vs. Minnesota

1966

The Packers were coming off an NFL Championship, their third in the last five years, and Coach Vince Lombardi’s team was headed to a 12-2 regular season and win in Super Bowl I.  The Vikings were just 2-4-1 when they ventured to Lambeau Field to face the 6-1 Packers.  As usual between these teams in those days, it was a hard-fought trench war that pre-dated the “Black and Blue Division” moniker given the old NFC Central Division.

 

Green Bay led this game 17-10 as the fourth quarter began, but the underdog Vikings scored 10 points in the final minutes to upset the Packers 20-17.  Big plodding fullback Bill Brown blasted into the end zone from a yard out to cap a final drive that produced the winning points.  It wouldn’t be the last time Brown pulled off that feat.

 

1967

Once again, the Packers were headed to a Super Bowl title, while the Vikings were going nowhere.  In fact, coming into Lambeau Field, the Purple and White sported an 0-4 record, while Green Bay had yet to lose a game.

 

The weather was cold and dreary, and the game turned into a defensive struggle for most of the day.  Green Bay led 7-0 with less than a quarter to play, when Brown did it again.  He capped a drive with a one yard plunge up the middle to tie the score, and then he converted a couple of first downs to set up a winning Fred Cox field goal, as Minnesota won 10-7.

 

1970

This time, the shoe was on the other foot.  Green Bay was no longer a power, while Minnesota was the defending NFL Champions (They had won the final NFL title by defeating Cleveland, but lost in the Super Bowl to Kansas City).

 

Coach Bud Grant and his Purple People Eaters were on their way to a second consecutive 12-2 season, while Green Bay was headed to a 6-8 season in what would prove to be Coach Phil Bengston’s last year, and Bart Starr’s last full year as the regular quarterback. 

 

The Packers had lost to Detroit 40-0 a couple weeks earlier, and nobody gave Green Bay a chance even at home.  The Packers pulled off the surprise of the week with a 13-10 upset.  Donny Anderson ran the sweep almost like the good ole days, and Dave Hampton returned a kickoff for a touchdown.

 

1972

In 1972, Coach Dan Devine took the Packers to their last full season (not counting a 5-3-1 record in the strike-shortened 1982 season) division championship prior to Brett Favre’s run.  The Packers were 4-2, while the Vikings were 2-4 as they squared off in Green Bay.

 

The Purple People Eaters ate quarterback Scott Hunter in the fourth quarter, returning two interceptions for touchdowns as Minnesota pulled off the 27-13 upset.

 

Oakland vs. Kansas City

Some fans say this rivalry became intense when the Kansas City Athletics baseball team moved to Oakland.  However, the rivalry goes back much farther.  It was already intense when the Chiefs were still the Dallas Texans, but it became fierce and hated once the American Football League had an agreement in place to merge in four years and would play the NFL champion in the Super Bowl.

 

1966

The Chiefs were headed to the AFL title and would represent the league in Super Bowl I.  The Raiders were a decent team but lacked consistency at quarterback.  When these two squared off at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City, Oakland was 2-3, while Kansas City was 4-1 having split with the two-time defending AFL champion Bills.

 

On this day, the Raiders got what they needed from their quarterback.  Future Raiders’ head coach Tom Flores threw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns, including a 75-yard strike to former Heisman Trophy winner Billy Cannon, who had been converted into an end by Coach John Rauch.

 

Meanwhile, the tough Raider defense knocked Chiefs’ running back Mike Garrett out of the game after he had rushed just three times for a loss of two yards.  Garrett had entered the game averaging better than six yards per carry.  Oakland won 34-13.

 

1968

After the Raiders destroyed the rest of the league in 1967 with their new quarterback, the mad bomber Daryle Lamonica, it was expected that they would repeat and possibly go 14-0. 

 

Kansas City rebounded from a 9-5 season and looked more like the Green Bay Packers than an AFL team.  They ran the ball with power and speed, and when defenses tried to stop the run, quarterback Len Dawson threw long passes to Otis Taylor and Fred Arbanas. 

 

Both teams entered this game at 4-1, having lost to the two best remaining teams in the AFL.  Kansas City lost by a point to Joe Namath and the Jets, while Oakland had been upset by a San Diego team that would forge a three-way tie at 8-2 later in the season before collapsing after Thanksgiving.

 

This game was supposed to be the game of the year, but something happened leading up to it.  The Chiefs suffered injuries to their entire receiving corps.  Coach Hank Stram did not have a single healthy receiver.  Rather than sign multiple receivers off the waiver wire or try to make do with taxi squad players, he did what only Stram would ever think of doing.  He installed a full-house T-formation offense straight out of the 1940’s.  He even used two tight ends and no wide receivers.

 

Of course, an offense like that was easy to stuff and completely shut down—correct?  No, not correct, as the Chiefs ran power plays, trap plays, and misdirection plays that the Silver and Black could not stop.

 

Over and over, Kansas City sustained long, time-consuming drives.  Dawson threw three play-action passes all day and completed two for 16 yards, one of them to a back.

 

The three Chief backs, Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes teamed for 293 rushing yards on 57 attempts.  Kansas City upset the Raiders 24-10, and this game may have been the beginning of the end for Coach Rauch and his unbeatable team.

 

1968, part two

The Raiders and Chiefs ended the regular season tied at 12-2, and the AFL had a playoff game to determine which Western Division team would face the Jets for the AFL Championship a week later.

 

Kansas City had given up just 170 points in 14 games, which was 29 points better than any other defense in the nine year history of the AFL.  Oakland had nearly equaled its offensive mayhem of 1967, scoring 453 points.  This game was expected to be the best game ever played in the AFL.

 

It wasn’t.  It was over before halftime, as the Raiders destroyed the Chiefs 41-6.  Lamonica threw five touchdown passes on his way to almost 350 yards passing.  Fred Biletnikoff caught three of those TD tosses.

 

The vaunted Kansas City running game ground to a halt, as the terrific trio gained just 61 yards on 22 attempts.

 

1969

In the last season of the AFL, the league instituted a new playoff rule.  Because the league had expanded to 10 teams, and because the NFL had four divisions with four playoff teams, the AFL decided to add the runners-up from its two divisions to the playoff mix.  Thus, the second place team in each division would play at the first place team in the opposite division, with the two winners playing for the AFL title a week later.

 

It was no surprise that Oakland and Kansas City won the two playoff spots in the Western Division.  However, Oakland was clearly the better team.  Under first year head coach John Madden, the Raiders had gone 12-1-1, losing only to the Cincinnati Bengal’s great passer Greg Cook before he suffered a career-ending injury.

 

Kansas City finished 11-3, relying on great defense and just enough offense without making mistakes. 

 

The Raiders beat the Chiefs handily three times that year.  The first did not count because it came in the preseason, but the other two were regular season games.

 

In the opening round of the playoffs, the Raiders humiliated Houston 56-7 in what was the second worst playoff margin ever.  Kansas City prevented the New York Jets from repeating as World Champions, which set up a fourth meeting between the two bitter rivals.

 

Coach Stram prepared well hoping to stop Lamonica and Biletnikoff and making Oakland beat them with their ground game.  Oakland did not cow-tow to any team and refused to alter their playing style for any opponent, especially the team they hated more than they hated the hippies across the bay.

 

Lamonica did not last the full 60 minutes.  A sack late midway through the third quarter ended his day, and greybeard George Blanda was forced into action.  He could not move the Raiders’ offense, and Kansas City held on for a 17-7 win.  The Chiefs picked off four Oakland passes and became the final AFL Champion.

 

1970

Of all the rivalry games between these two teams, this was the fiercest of all.  Not only did it produce multiple free-for-alls, including one of the worst bench-clearing brawls in football history, it even produced a rules change.

 

Neither team was great by this time.  The Colts and Dolphins were now the two best teams in the new AFC.  However, the new AFC West was going to be won by one of these two teams.

 

When the two heavyweights faced off in Kansas City, it was the Chiefs that dominated the game for most of the day.  However, they could only muster two touchdowns and a field goal and led 17-14 in the fourth quarter.

 

The Chiefs had the ball in their own territory and only needed a couple first downs to run out the clock.  They got the first one and had a crucial third down play coming up.  Quarterback Dawson rolled out as if to pass and then saw enough running room to pick up the first down, even on his old legs.  He sprinted to the far side of the field and dove past the first down marker for an apparent first down that would seal the game.

 

However, that was not the end of the play.  The Raiders’ biggest villain of all, Ben Davidson (who sported a handlebar mustache before A’s pitcher Rollie Fingers), speared Dawson after the play was over.

 

Otis Taylor then threw a punch at Davidson, and the game turned into a professional wrestling match, except the punches and fighting were not pre-planned.  Both benches cleared, and the referees had a hard time restoring order.  When they separated the two teams, they held a conference.  Their decision was to toss out both Davidson and Taylor and call offsetting personal foul penalties. 

 

In those days, offsetting penalties after the end of the play nullified the play, so Kansas City had to convert the third down play again.  This time, Oakland stopped them and forced the Chiefs to punt.  The Raiders had just enough time to complete two passes and attempt a long field goal.  Blanda converted from just across midfield (goalposts were at the goal line in those days), and the Raiders left Kansas City with a 17-17 tie.

 

As it turned out, this tie game was all that prevented Kansas City from winning the division.  Oakland finished 8-4-2, while Kansas City finished 7-5-2.  Both teams would have been 8-5-1 had the fight not affected the outcome of the game.  The Chiefs would have won the tiebreaker.

 

Because of that game, the NFL changed the dead ball personal foul rule so that it could not nullify a play after it happened.

 

The PiRate Ratings For Week 7

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New York Giants	102.5	99.7	103.2	1.5	4	–	2	–	0	154	147
Dallas Cowboys	101.9	103.2	102.0	0.5	2	–	3	–	0	115	121
Philadelphia Eagles	101.7	101.6	99.2	2	2	–	4	–	0	145	145
Washington Redskins	95.8	98.2	101.0	3.5	3	–	2	–	0	96	83
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	110.9	110.0	109.0	2	6	–	0