The Pi-Rate Ratings

June 10, 2018

The PiRates Are Hard At Work For Football Season

Hello Mates.

This is the head PiRate telling you that we have set sail and are on our way out to the green sea, otherwise known as the Football Field.

We have already begun to update our college football ratings for the 2018 season.  We have a unique way of updating our ratings from the end of the previous season to the beginning of the new season.  We have point values assigned to every starting and backup position on offense and defense plus an overall rating for the components of special teams.

For instance, as it should be obvious, the Quarterback is the most important position in college football.  So, we take special care in determining how many points better or worse each of the 130 teams is in week one compared to their final game of the year before by adding or subtracting points based on the QB.  We look at certain analytics data, just like baseball teams look at advanced statistics.  We actually have our own version of WAR for college football.  Instead of Batting, Fielding, and Pitching WAR, we have offense, defense, and special teams WAR, only instead of putting the final numbers into wins above average, we use points per game above average.  In the PiRate Ratings, a rating of 100.0 is average.  If a quarterback is worth 6.3 points better than an average QB, then before we look at the reserves, a team that is totally average at every other position would begin the season at 106.3 for this particular piece of the ratings’ puzzle.  If a quarterback has been determined to be 3.8 points below average, it would reduce the average team from 100.0 to 96.2.

On offense, the receiving corps is the next most important part of the equation, while the offensive line and running back corps are equal in importance as the last two parts.

Defensively, we look at all three units as they play against the run and the pass.  Stopping the pass is more important these days than stopping the run.  Interceptions, Passes Broken Up, Sacks, and Hurries are all parts of the Pass defense stats we look at.  We also have special ratings for nose guards that have the responsibility of taking up space and keeping blockers away from the linebackers, as these heroes of the trenches rarely show up in box scores, until one of the behemoths gets injured, and his replacement prevents the star will linebacker from making his usual 14 tackles with 2 for loss.

We have an intangible part of this equation as well.  Say a team has a change in coaches.  The old coach was a spread option or flexbone disciple, while the new coach is an air raid disciple.  It’s going to take 2-4 years to fully implement the changes, as that five foot nine inch triple option QB is not going to work as a dropback passer.

Another example in an intangible is the team that had 9 key injuries the year before, and 8 of the 9 return at 100% after missing parts or all of the year before.

In 2018, there will be a case where a potential all-star junior quarterback will transfer from one Power 5 school to another and be immediately eligible.  This will have major effects on his new team, much more than if he were the top incoming freshman in the nation.  This QB has already proven himself in a power conference, while the top incoming freshman only proved himself in Georgia high school action.  There is a difference as deep as the Grand Canyon in comparing the two, even though the incoming freshman might eventually become the next John Elway.  The seasoned starter showed what he could do when he passed for close to 350 yards against Auburn, while the freshman threw for 220 yards against Troup County High School.

This is just one piece of a 5-prong process.  We rate each team against every other team using 5 different processes.  Once we are done, we use three different algorithms to come up with a PiRate, Mean, and Bias rating for each of the 130 teams.  The PiRate and Bias differ by very little, so they will frequently be highly correlated, while the Mean rating is somewhat different than the other two, because it takes the equally-weighted average of the five ratings, while the other two apply heavier weights to some of the five components.  Because they share the exact same weighting of the prong we showed you above, these two tend to stay correlated.

We know we have a lot of advanced mathematicians reading our blog, and we are grateful for your patronage.  We try to make this more analytically dominated than you might get from other sports rating sites and even break down the fourth wall from time to time to show you what we do.

If you are not a math fan and just love football, then fear not.  We still hope to have computer ratings that are as accurate as possible, and we still will make fools of ourselves weekly to issue free picks that you can then take and gift to Las Vegas if you are foolish enough to not realize that these picks are worth exactly what you pay for them.

We have 10 weeks to go.  With a lot of late night work, we hope to have the ratings ready for you in 9 weeks max.

Thanks,

The Captain

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December 7, 2015

College Football Preview–December 12, 2015

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:42 am

There is just one regular season FBS game remaining, and it’s the Army-Navy game this week to be played at Franklin Financial Field in Philadelphia.

 

Because our ratings rely on the results of all teams, we cannot post our bowl predictions until this game is finished. Our spreads of all 40 bowl games/playoff games will be posted after this game concludes.

This Week’s Game
         
Opponent Opponent PiRate Mean Bias
Saturday, December 12
Army Navy -27.8 -24.3 -27.6
Game to be played in Philadelphia

PiRate Ratings For This Week

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Oklahoma
4 Ohio St.
5 Michigan St.
6 Stanford
7 Notre Dame
8 Iowa
9 Florida St.
10 TCU
11 Ole Miss
12 North Carolina
13 Houston
14 Oklahoma St.
15 LSU
16 Oregon
17 Baylor
18 Florida
19 Northwestern
20 Michigan
21 Utah
22 USC
23 Tennessee
24 Wisconsin
25 Georgia
26 Navy
27 Memphis
28 Arkansas
29 Western Kentucky
30 Bowling Green
31 Mississippi St.
32 UCLA
33 Toledo
34 Temple
35 Texas A&M
36 BYU
37 California
38 Pittsburgh
39 West Virginia
40 Miami (Fla.)
41 Washington
42 South Florida
43 Washington St.
44 Appalachian St.
45 San Diego St.
46 Texas Tech
47 Louisville
48 Penn St.
49 North Carolina St.
50 Auburn
51 Arizona St.
52 Western Michigan
53 Boise St.
54 Virginia Tech
55 Cincinnati
56 Arkansas St.
57 Nebraska
58 Kansas St.
59 Southern Miss.
60 Indiana
61 Georgia Southern
62 Marshall
63 Duke
64 Texas
65 Northern Illinois
66 Air Force
67 Minnesota
68 Louisiana Tech
69 Illinois
70 Arizona
71 Central Michigan
72 Ohio
73 Georgia Tech
74 Utah St.
75 Connecticut
76 Missouri
77 East Carolina
78 Middle Tennessee
79 Virginia
80 Iowa St.
81 South Carolina
82 Vanderbilt
83 Akron
84 Tulsa
85 Maryland
86 Colorado St.
87 Syracuse
88 Georgia St.
89 Kentucky
90 New Mexico
91 Colorado
92 San Jose St.
93 Rutgers
94 Boston College
95 Wake Forest
96 Nevada
97 Buffalo
98 Oregon St.
99 Purdue
100 South Alabama
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Ball St.
104 Florida Atlantic
105 Rice
106 SMU
107 Idaho
108 Old Dominion
109 Massachusetts
110 UNLV
111 UTEP
112 Louisiana-Lafayette
113 Fresno St.
114 Tulane
115 Kent St.
116 Miami (O)
117 Texas St.
118 UTSA
119 Kansas
120 New Mexico St.
121 Hawaii
122 Wyoming
123 Louisiana-Monroe
124 Army
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.5 129.1 131.4 130.7
2 Oklahoma 130.2 126.5 130.9 129.2
3 Ohio St. 129.0 124.6 129.8 127.8
4 Stanford 124.5 121.7 124.9 123.7
5 Ole Miss 124.7 120.2 123.9 122.9
6 Clemson 121.8 122.6 122.0 122.1
7 Baylor 122.9 118.8 122.7 121.5
8 North Carolina 121.1 121.4 120.7 121.1
9 TCU 123.1 115.6 124.0 120.9
10 Notre Dame 121.2 118.9 120.9 120.3
11 Arkansas 121.3 116.4 120.8 119.5
12 Michigan St. 119.7 117.2 119.7 118.9
13 Tennessee 120.1 116.2 120.2 118.8
14 LSU 119.8 116.4 119.4 118.5
15 UCLA 120.5 114.8 118.9 118.1
16 USC 119.7 115.0 118.7 117.8
17 Florida St. 117.2 118.4 117.1 117.6
18 Oregon 118.6 113.3 118.8 116.9
19 Utah 118.1 112.3 116.3 115.6
20 Mississippi St. 116.5 113.1 116.5 115.4
21 Washington 115.9 112.6 115.8 114.8
22 Michigan 115.8 113.0 115.3 114.7
23 Texas A&M 116.4 112.9 114.4 114.6
24 Georgia 116.1 111.2 115.4 114.2
25 Oklahoma St. 115.1 111.9 114.7 113.9
26 Florida 114.5 111.4 114.4 113.4
27 California 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
28 West Virginia 114.9 109.2 114.3 112.8
29 Arizona St. 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
30 Iowa 111.7 113.3 112.5 112.5
31 Houston 109.8 115.2 112.0 112.3
32 Auburn 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
33 Wisconsin 111.6 111.2 110.8 111.2
34 Bowling Green 108.5 113.3 111.6 111.1
35 Virginia Tech 110.7 110.4 110.8 110.6
36 Western Kentucky 109.5 110.4 111.2 110.4
37 North Carolina St. 109.4 110.4 107.9 109.2
38 BYU 108.1 108.3 109.3 108.6
39 Louisville 108.0 109.5 107.9 108.5
40 Temple 106.9 109.9 108.4 108.4
41 Memphis 107.7 108.8 108.0 108.2
42 Pittsburgh 107.5 108.1 107.8 107.8
43 Nebraska 108.5 106.9 107.8 107.7
44 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
45 Washington St. 108.5 105.1 109.3 107.6
46 Navy 105.9 109.9 107.0 107.6
47 San Diego St. 105.7 109.8 106.9 107.5
48 Miami 106.1 106.7 107.2 106.7
49 Northwestern 106.4 106.6 106.6 106.5
50 Boise St. 107.3 105.1 107.2 106.5
51 Texas 107.5 103.4 107.3 106.1
52 South Carolina 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
53 Arizona 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
54 Texas Tech 108.1 100.4 108.3 105.6
55 Missouri 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
56 Toledo 103.7 105.0 104.9 104.5
57 South Florida 102.1 107.8 103.4 104.4
58 Minnesota 105.1 103.6 104.2 104.3
59 Western Michigan 102.6 103.8 104.0 103.5
60 Penn St. 103.8 103.3 103.0 103.4
61 Colorado 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
62 Kansas St. 106.0 97.5 105.7 103.1
63 Cincinnati 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
64 Duke 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
65 Illinois 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
66 Virginia 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
67 Indiana 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
68 Boston College 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
69 Kentucky 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
70 Air Force 98.7 102.1 99.1 100.0
71 Southern Mississippi 98.8 100.9 99.6 99.8
72 Iowa St. 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
73 Georgia Southern 97.2 100.0 99.1 98.8
74 Louisiana Tech 98.3 98.6 99.1 98.7
75 Vanderbilt 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
76 Marshall 97.9 98.5 97.6 98.0
77 Appalachian St. 96.4 99.5 97.9 97.9
78 Northern Illinois 96.0 99.8 96.9 97.6
79 Wake Forest 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
80 Utah St. 97.6 97.8 96.0 97.1
81 Arkansas St. 95.2 97.0 97.5 96.6
82 Middle Tennessee 96.6 96.2 96.7 96.5
83 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
84 Syracuse 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
85 Purdue 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
86 Maryland 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
87 Connecticut 91.0 95.5 92.3 92.9
88 San Jose St. 92.2 94.2 92.2 92.9
89 Colorado St. 92.8 93.3 92.3 92.8
90 New Mexico 92.3 93.4 91.8 92.5
91 Central Michigan 90.3 94.2 91.7 92.1
92 Rutgers 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
93 Tulsa 89.8 93.9 90.9 91.5
94 Nevada 89.7 93.6 90.0 91.1
95 Ohio 88.8 93.2 90.9 91.0
96 Akron 86.1 92.9 88.4 89.1
97 Georgia St. 86.2 87.9 87.6 87.2
98 Oregon St. 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
99 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
100 Troy 84.2 85.5 84.8 84.8
101 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
102 SMU 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
103 Massachusetts 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
104 Buffalo 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
105 Tulane 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
106 UNLV 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
107 Fresno St. 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
108 Army 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
109 Wyoming 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
110 Rice 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
111 Ball St. 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
112 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
113 Old Dominion 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
114 Kent St. 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
115 Hawaii 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
116 UT-San Antonio 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
117 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
118 UL-Lafayette 76.6 79.1 76.3 77.3
119 South Alabama 75.0 79.8 75.9 76.9
120 Idaho 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
121 Central Florida 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
122 Texas St. 73.2 75.6 72.8 73.9
123 Eastern Michigan 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
124 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
125 New Mexico St. 72.6 73.8 72.0 72.8
126 Kansas 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
127 UL-Monroe 71.4 71.4 71.7 71.5
128 Charlotte 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
2 Pac-12 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
3 Big 12 110.4 104.8 110.1 108.4
4 ACC 107.8 108.5 107.5 107.9
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
6 Indep. 102.5 104.3 103.2 103.3
7 AAC 95.9 99.4 96.6 97.3
8 MWC 91.5 93.1 91.1 91.9
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.5
10 CUSA 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 82.0 84.4 82.8 83.1

 

Bowl Pairings

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC San Jose St. * vs. Georgia St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Arizona *
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Utah vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Temple vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. Northern Illinois
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Cincinnati vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Connecticut vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami vs. Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Washington * vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Tulsa * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nebraska vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Pittsburgh vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Central Michigan * vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC California * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 North Carolina vs. Baylor
Arizona CUSA MWC Colorado St. * vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. vs. Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Florida St. vs. Houston
Cotton Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. Michigan St.
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. USC
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan vs. Florida
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Ole Miss
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Ohio St. vs. Notre Dame
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Michigan St. vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

FCS Playoffs

2nd Round    
Jacksonville St. 41 ot
Chattanooga 35  
     
Charleston Sou. 14  
Citadel 6  
     
Colgate 44  
James Madison 38  
     
Sam Houston 34  
McNeese St. 29  
     
North Dakota St. 37  
Montana 6  
     
Northern Iowa 29  
Portland St. 17  
     
Richmond 48  
William & Mary 13  
     
Illinois St. 36  
Western Illinois 19  

 

Quarterfinal Round Games

Quarterfinals D. 11-13 All times ET
@ Illinois St. 10-2 D.11 7:30 PM
Richmond 9-3 ESPN3
     
@ Sam Houston 10-3 D.12 8PM
Colgate 9-4  No TV
     
@ Jacksonville St. 11-1 D.11 8 PM
Charleston Southern 10-2 ESPN2
     
@ North Dakota St. 10-2 D.13 12 AM
Northern Iowa 9-4 ESPN

 

 

September 28, 2015

College Football Preview: October 1-3, 2015

Bowl Me Over
As Autumn leaves begin to turn orange and red, it’s time for the PiRate Ratings to get into the playoff and bowl talk. Unlike most sites where experts give out bowl projections, we try to look forward to the remaining schedules and place teams according to their recent form holding true the rest of the year.

For example, over the weekend, both Ohio State and Michigan State for the second consecutive week appeared not to be as strong as they were supposed to be. Meanwhile, Michigan looked like the Wolverines of the Bo Schembechler 1970’s. Thus, for this opening week, we are picking the Maize and Blue to run the table, knocking off both the Spartans and Buckeyes (both home games) to win the Big Ten title. With their lone loss coming at Utah, a team that looks strong enough to challenge UCLA and Stanford for the Pac-12 title, we have Jim Harbaugh’s team selected to occupy a playoff spot in our first edition; notice that this differs from the PiRate Rating playoff ratings, which simply takes the top four PiRate Rating teams and apply it to the Playoff rules.

For those readers that need a refresher course on the 2015-16 College Football Playoff format, there are four teams in the playoff. The four teams are seeded one through four, with the top seed earning a bid to either the Cotton or Orange Bowl, whichever is more advantageous to that team. The number one seed plays the number four seed, while the number two seed plays the number three seed in the Cotton or Orange Bowl. The winners of the Cotton and Orange Bowl advance to the National Championship Game, which will be played in Glendale, Arizona, on January 11.
The two playoff games plus four other top-tier bowls comprise what is called “The New Year’s Six” bowls. These four other bowls not in the playoffs include the Peach, Sugar, Fiesta, and Rose Bowls. Among the eight teams playing in these four bowls, a guarantee has been made that at least one team not from one of the Power conferences will receive an invitation. The Power conferences are the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC. The non power conferences, known as “The Group of 5,” are the American Athletic, Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, and Sun Belt Conference.

After the New Year’s Six Bowls are filled, the remaining 33 bowls select teams based on contractual agreements with conferences. There was supposed to be one additional bowl this year, in Tucson, Arizona, but lack of a title sponsor and other issues forced this bowl to try again next year.

With 39 total bowls plus the National Championship Game, 78 teams will play in the postseason. As of this writing, our crystal ball shows that exactly 78 teams will be bowl eligible this year. Our bowl projections follow our PiRate Ratings Spreads for this week’s games.

Exciting Games This Week
October usually means more conference games and less FBS versus FCS games (just two of those this week). Early October presents so many games of interest, because so many teams finish September looking like contenders. By the middle of this month, only a quarter of those teams in contention for conference championships this now will still be in contention. Thus, you get a high number of meaningful and/or interesting contests. Here are the games we like best this week.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech–Noon EDT on ESPN3: The ACC Coastal Division race is wide open with six of the seven teams closely matched. Pittsburgh had a bye week to prepare for their trip to Lane Stadium, while Virginia Tech took it on the chin at East Carolina last week. Rumors are running rampant that Hokies’ coach Frank Beamer is now firmly on a hot seat, and calling the ECU loss just an “exhibition game” did not sit well with the fans.

South Carolina at Missouri–Noon EDT on WatchESPN: This could be a bowl elimination game. South Carolina is already 0-2 in the SEC and out of the East Division race. Missouri lost at Kentucky last week, and a home loss to the Gamecocks could send the Tigers crashing to seven or eight losses.

Iowa at Wisconsin–Noon EDT on ESPN: The Big Ten conference races begin this week, and the West Division is wide open. Wisconsin appears to be a little weaker than last season, while Iowa is off to a brilliant 4-0 start, but against a mostly untested slate of opponents. A road win would validate the Hawkeyes, while Badger win would simply give UW a one-game lead in the standings with both teams still in the race.

Minnesota at Northwestern–Noon EDT on Big Ten Network: We could say the same thing about every Big Ten game in week one of conference play. Northwestern struggled in a narrow win over Ball State last week, while Minnesota was very lucky to escape with a home win over Ohio. NU owns a win over Stanford and a road win against Duke, so the Wildcats have a resume good enough to stay in the playoff race if they can continue to win. The Gophers look like a team that could be getting ready to drown in the lake. UM can make a statement by pulling off the upset, while NU could move into the Top 15 with an impressive win.

West Virginia at Oklahoma–Noon EDT on FoxSports 1: Two 3-0 ranked teams square off in the conference opener for both. We are high on the Sooners so far, and an impressive double-digit win in this game may propel OU above TCU and Baylor in the minds of some on the Selection Committee. A WVU upset in Norman could send the Mountaineers to Baylor at 5-0 two weeks later.

Houston at Tulsa–Noon EDT on CBSSN: If the season ended today, Houston would not be the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl choice among the Group of Five conferences. However, the Cougars may have the best shot of running the table of the five or six teams in contention. The Cougars, under first year head coach and former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman, have won at Louisville, and a win in Tulsa Saturday would leave UH with three future road games against weak competition. All the other tough games are at home. Don’t count the Golden Hurrican out in this one; they had an extra week to prepare after giving Oklahoma fits two weeks ago.

Air Force at Navy–3:30 PM EDT on CBSSN: Not much needs to be said here; it’s a service academy rivalry, but a Midshipmen win would send Navy to South Bend next week at 4-0.

Alabama at Georgia–3:30 PM EDT on CBS: Alabama has not been an underdog since Tim Tebow was quarterbacking Florida. The Tide go to Athens this week as the underdog for the first time in 72 games! That 2009 underdog merely won that game by 19 points and then took the National Championship. This Alabama team does not have 28 future NFL draft picks like the 2009 National Champions. Georgia does not play Alabama in the regular season that often. The last time the Dogs beat the Tide was 2007, and UGA won the Sugar Bowl that year. The previous win before 2007 was in 2002, and UGA won the Sugar Bowl that year as well. If Georgia wins, Alabama then must win out to have any chance of making it to the SEC Championship Game. If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs can already start to smell an extra game down in Atlanta in early December.

Kansas State at Oklahoma State–4:00 PM EDT on FoxSports 1: The winner of this game stays undefeated and the dark horse team behind TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma.

Ole Miss at Florida–7:00 PM EDT on ESPN: After winning at Alabama, Ole Miss came out flat last week in an unspectacular home win over Vanderbilt, while Florida pulled out a last second thriller win over rival Tennessee. The Gators figure to be the team coming out a bit flat, and if the Rebels revert to form, they could leave Gainesville Saturday night firmly entrenched as one of the top four teams if not number one. If the Gators can pull off another big win, they should go to Baton Rouge in two weeks still undefeated. This game has major playoff repercussions for both teams.

Arkansas at Tennessee–7:00 PM EDT on ESPN2: This is almost assuredly a bowl elimination game. We can see no way that the loser of this game will finish better than 5-7, and even the winner of this game still faces a tough road ahead in what must be called the Disappointment Classic. Additionally, the losing coach in this game may be in serious trouble when they end up below .500 this year.

Arizona State at UCLA–7:30 PM EDT on Fox: Generally, the Pac-12 winner has an experienced at talented junior or senior quarterback leading the team. UCLA has a true freshman, but Josh Rosen’s field smarts may be more similar to Andrew Luck than a true freshman. Throw in one of the best coaches in Jim Mora, Jr., and the Bruins are definitely one of three teams capable of playing in the Cotton or Orange Bowl. Arizona State will come into this game out for blood after suffering a humiliating home loss to USC.

Notre Dame at Clemson–8:00 PM EDT on ABC: The last time an undefeated and highly-ranked Clemson team hosted another undefeated and highly-ranked opponent on the ABC Saturday night prime-time game, the Tigers were sky high as the nation watched one of the greatest pre-game rituals. Clemson then laid a huge egg in a 51-14 loss to Florida State. Notre Dame’s four wins don’t look all that impressive now that both Texas and Georgia Tech have proven to be mediocre, while the Irish’s other two wins (Virginia and Massachusetts) were no Picassos. Any of the next four teams on ND’s schedule could end their Playoff hopes for this season. If the Irish go 4-0 in October, they deserve to be one of the top four teams entering November.

Michigan at Maryland–8:00 PM EDT on Big Ten Network: This game interests us differently than the others here. Maryland is not interesting in and of themselves. After losing the opener at Utah, which now looks a lot better than it did in week one, Michigan has begun to look like the old power team of the decade between 1969 and 1978. The shutout of BYU was spectacular. But, can the Wolverines follow that up with a repeat on the road? If so, then the way the Big Two in the East are playing in the last two weeks, it would not surprise us if Jim Harbaugh can repeat what Bo Schembechler did in his first season in A2. November 22, 1969, was a dark day for fans from that state down south. What was considered the best Ohio State team ever, an unbeatable 8-0 team that destroyed everybody else on the schedule, fell to a heavily underdog Wolverine team.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Starting this week, we debut our new Retrodictive Ratings. These ratings are our version of a poll. We do not use them for comparing two teams with a power rating. This is simply a ranking of teams similar to the top 25 weekly poll. You will find our new Retrodictive Ranking at Ken Massey’s College Football Ranking Composite. Ken does a great job at this site, so we encourage you to support his efforts. http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Here is our first Retrodictive Ranking.

PiRate Retrodictive
1 Ohio St.
2 Ole Miss
3 Baylor
4 TCU
5 LSU
6 UCLA
7 Notre Dame
8 Georgia
9 Utah
10 Oklahoma
11 Alabama
12 USC
13 Texas A&M
14 Michigan St.
15 California
16 Clemson
17 Michigan
18 Stanford
19 West Virginia
20 Florida St.
21 North Carolina St.
22 Wisconsin
23 Mississippi St.
24 Florida
25 Boise St.
26 Oklahoma St.
27 Miami
28 Texas Tech
29 Oregon
30 Temple
31 Georgia Tech
32 Tennessee
33 Penn St.
34 Northwestern
35 Kentucky
36 Iowa
37 Duke
38 Minnesota
39 Virginia Tech
40 Arizona
41 Missouri
42 Arizona St.
43 North Carolina
44 Illinois
45 Memphis
46 Pittsburgh
47 Kansas St.
48 South Carolina
49 BYU
50 Arkansas
51 Auburn
52 Louisville
53 Nebraska
54 Houston
55 Washington
56 Colorado
57 Cincinnati
58 Western Kentucky
59 Boston College
60 Toledo
61 Louisiana Tech
62 Navy
63 Texas
64 Virginia
65 Bowling Green
66 Middle Tennessee
67 Indiana
68 Vanderbilt
69 Appalachian St.
70 Syracuse
71 Purdue
72 Air Force
73 Western Michigan
74 Washington St.
75 Georgia Southern
76 Wake Forest
77 Northern Illinois
78 San Diego St.
79 Rutgers
80 Utah St.
81 Ohio
82 Marshall
83 East Carolina
84 Iowa St.
85 San Jose St.
86 Tulsa
87 Colorado St.
88 Nevada
89 Hawaii
90 Oregon St.
91 Maryland
92 Florida International
93 Central Florida
94 New Mexico
95 South Florida
96 Massachusetts
97 Arkansas St.
98 SMU
99 Rice
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Southern Mississippi
103 Ball St.
104 Central Michigan
105 Buffalo
106 Fresno St.
107 Kent St.
108 UL-Lafayette
109 Connecticut
110 Army
111 Florida Atlantic
112 Texas St.
113 UTEP
114 UL-Monroe
115 UNLV
116 UT-San Antonio
117 North Texas
118 South Alabama
119 Old Dominion
120 Wyoming
121 Miami (O)
122 Kansas
123 Troy
124 Eastern Michigan
125 Georgia St.
126 New Mexico St.
127 Idaho
128 Charlotte

This Week’s PiRate Ratings (The Regular Ones)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 131.6 123.3 132.2 129.0
2 Ole Miss 128.6 122.0 126.8 125.8
3 Baylor 124.9 121.4 125.6 124.0
4 TCU 126.8 116.4 127.6 123.6
5 LSU 124.5 121.1 124.1 123.2
6 Alabama 123.9 122.0 123.1 123.0
7 USC 123.8 120.4 124.2 122.8
8 Notre Dame 123.5 119.7 124.0 122.4
9 UCLA 124.7 118.4 122.9 122.0
10 Utah 124.1 118.3 123.5 122.0
11 Georgia 124.5 116.8 123.8 121.7
12 Oklahoma 121.2 118.4 121.5 120.4
13 Texas A&M 120.3 118.2 119.2 119.2
14 Georgia Tech 119.9 116.8 119.3 118.7
15 Tennessee 119.9 115.6 119.5 118.3
16 Stanford 118.2 117.0 118.2 117.8
17 Michigan St. 118.3 114.2 118.1 116.9
18 California 117.8 113.0 118.2 116.3
19 Clemson 115.4 116.5 115.3 115.7
20 Oregon 118.0 110.2 117.2 115.1
21 Arkansas 117.5 111.4 116.5 115.1
22 Michigan 116.3 112.5 115.9 114.9
23 West Virginia 116.8 111.4 116.4 114.9
24 Florida St. 115.0 115.3 113.7 114.7
25 Auburn 115.4 112.9 114.3 114.2
26 North Carolina 113.4 113.4 113.0 113.3
27 Mississippi St. 114.4 110.3 114.5 113.1
28 Boise St. 114.6 109.2 114.3 112.7
29 Oklahoma St. 112.3 112.6 112.8 112.6
30 North Carolina St. 111.8 113.9 111.1 112.3
31 Wisconsin 111.5 112.4 110.7 111.5
32 Virginia Tech 112.2 109.6 112.4 111.4
33 Florida 112.2 108.9 111.8 111.0
34 Arizona St. 112.1 106.9 110.6 109.9
35 Arizona 112.8 105.6 110.6 109.7
36 Miami 109.0 109.9 109.5 109.5
37 Texas Tech 112.0 102.6 112.1 108.9
38 Louisville 107.9 110.4 108.1 108.8
39 Missouri 110.1 107.1 109.2 108.8
40 Temple 107.3 109.4 108.6 108.4
41 Nebraska 109.0 106.3 108.2 107.8
42 Minnesota 107.9 106.5 107.6 107.3
43 Penn St. 105.8 108.1 106.1 106.7
44 Texas 106.8 105.5 106.5 106.3
45 Duke 106.0 105.4 106.8 106.1
46 Kentucky 107.3 103.9 106.6 105.9
47 Iowa 104.5 107.7 105.4 105.9
48 Northwestern 105.7 106.5 105.4 105.9
49 South Carolina 107.5 104.0 106.0 105.8
50 BYU 105.9 103.8 107.0 105.6
51 Illinois 106.7 104.2 105.5 105.5
52 Memphis 104.9 104.8 106.3 105.3
53 Pittsburgh 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
54 Kansas St. 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
55 Colorado 106.0 101.7 105.3 104.3
56 Houston 100.3 108.3 103.0 103.9
57 Washington 104.0 102.0 104.5 103.5
58 Cincinnati 102.1 102.2 103.2 102.5
59 Western Kentucky 102.1 100.7 103.4 102.1
60 Boston College 100.8 105.5 99.1 101.8
61 Toledo 101.3 99.6 102.5 101.1
62 Louisiana Tech 101.1 98.3 102.0 100.5
63 Navy 98.1 101.3 98.5 99.3
64 Virginia 100.6 97.5 99.7 99.3
65 Bowling Green 97.0 101.1 98.8 99.0
66 Middle Tennessee 98.8 98.5 98.7 98.7
67 Vanderbilt 100.3 94.5 99.6 98.1
68 Appalachian St. 96.1 99.8 98.5 98.1
69 Syracuse 96.0 99.7 95.6 97.1
70 Purdue 97.4 97.0 95.7 96.7
71 Air Force 94.8 100.0 94.6 96.5
72 Indiana 95.6 97.6 95.4 96.2
73 Western Michigan 96.0 95.3 97.2 96.2
74 Washington St. 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
75 Georgia Southern 94.7 97.4 95.4 95.8
76 Wake Forest 94.7 98.8 93.7 95.7
77 Northern Illinois 94.6 97.4 95.0 95.7
78 San Diego St. 93.6 98.6 94.5 95.6
79 Rutgers 97.3 94.0 95.1 95.5
80 Utah St. 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
81 Ohio 93.2 97.6 95.0 95.3
82 Marshall 95.0 94.8 95.4 95.1
83 East Carolina 93.2 96.5 93.6 94.4
84 Iowa St. 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
85 San Jose St. 92.7 96.2 93.0 94.0
86 Tulsa 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
87 Colorado St. 94.7 92.6 93.1 93.5
88 Nevada 91.3 95.3 90.9 92.5
89 Hawaii 91.5 93.7 91.9 92.4
90 Oregon St. 93.0 91.4 92.1 92.2
91 Maryland 93.2 90.7 91.9 91.9
92 Florida International 89.5 91.9 91.3 90.9
93 Central Florida 89.2 92.7 90.6 90.8
94 New Mexico 90.7 91.6 90.1 90.8
95 South Florida 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
96 Massachusetts 87.4 90.8 89.0 89.1
97 Arkansas St. 88.9 88.4 89.6 89.0
98 SMU 87.6 91.4 87.7 88.9
99 Rice 86.6 91.0 87.2 88.3
100 Tulane 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
101 Akron 85.2 91.5 86.8 87.8
102 Southern Mississippi 87.8 88.3 87.2 87.8
103 Ball St. 86.0 89.1 87.2 87.4
104 Central Michigan 85.3 89.3 87.3 87.3
105 Buffalo 83.9 91.3 86.4 87.2
106 Fresno St. 85.6 91.7 83.9 87.1
107 Kent St. 83.5 86.2 84.4 84.7
108 UL-Lafayette 83.1 87.4 83.3 84.6
109 Connecticut 82.0 88.0 82.3 84.1
110 Army 79.2 90.1 80.9 83.4
111 Florida Atlantic 81.7 85.7 82.1 83.2
112 Texas St. 81.2 85.1 80.9 82.4
113 UTEP 81.5 84.3 81.3 82.4
114 UL-Monroe 83.1 79.9 82.8 81.9
115 UNLV 80.2 82.6 80.9 81.2
116 UT-San Antonio 78.3 81.3 79.5 79.7
117 North Texas 77.2 83.3 77.6 79.4
118 South Alabama 75.4 83.2 77.0 78.5
119 Old Dominion 76.6 83.0 75.4 78.3
120 Wyoming 77.9 79.7 76.1 77.9
121 Miami (O) 75.1 80.3 75.0 76.8
122 Kansas 79.1 72.8 77.1 76.3
123 Troy 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
124 Eastern Michigan 72.7 82.2 72.3 75.7
125 Georgia St. 75.7 74.4 75.4 75.2
126 New Mexico St. 73.6 74.7 73.5 73.9
127 Idaho 70.4 78.3 71.7 73.5
128 Charlotte 69.0 71.0 68.7 69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 1-0 3-0 107.3 109.4 108.6 108.4
Cincinnati 0-2 2-2 102.1 102.2 103.2 102.5
East Carolina 0-1 2-2 93.2 96.5 93.6 94.4
Central Florida 0-0 0-4 89.2 92.7 90.6 90.8
South Florida 0-0 2-2 88.1 94.9 87.5 90.2
Connecticut 0-1 2-2 82.0 88.0 82.3 84.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 1-0 4-0 104.9 104.8 106.3 105.3
Houston 0-0 3-0 100.3 108.3 103.0 103.9
Navy 2-0 3-0 98.1 101.3 98.5 99.3
Tulsa 0-0 2-1 91.5 97.4 92.9 93.9
SMU 0-0 1-3 87.6 91.4 87.7 88.9
Tulane 0-0 1-2 87.9 90.3 86.0 88.1
             
AAC Averages     94.4 98.1 95.0 95.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 1-0 3-0 115.4 116.5 115.3 115.7
Florida St. 1-0 3-0 115.0 115.3 113.7 114.7
North Carolina St. 0-0 4-0 111.8 113.9 111.1 112.3
Louisville 0-1 1-3 107.9 110.4 108.1 108.8
Boston College 0-1 3-1 100.8 105.5 99.1 101.8
Syracuse 1-0 3-1 96.0 99.7 95.6 97.1
Wake Forest 0-1 2-2 94.7 98.8 93.7 95.7
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-1 2-2 119.9 116.8 119.3 118.7
North Carolina 0-0 3-1 113.4 113.4 113.0 113.3
Virginia Tech 0-0 2-2 112.2 109.6 112.4 111.4
Miami 0-0 3-0 109.0 109.9 109.5 109.5
Duke 1-0 3-1 106.0 105.4 106.8 106.1
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-1 103.7 105.8 104.9 104.8
Virginia 0-0 1-3 100.6 97.5 99.7 99.3
             
ACC Averages     107.6 108.5 107.3 107.8
             
Big 12 Conference
Team  Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Baylor 0-0 3-0 124.9 121.4 125.6 124.0
TCU 1-0 4-0 126.8 116.4 127.6 123.6
Oklahoma 0-0 3-0 121.2 118.4 121.5 120.4
West Virginia 0-0 3-0 116.8 111.4 116.4 114.9
Oklahoma St. 1-0 4-0 112.3 112.6 112.8 112.6
Texas Tech 0-1 3-1 112.0 102.6 112.1 108.9
Texas 0-1 1-3 106.8 105.5 106.5 106.3
Kansas St. 0-0 3-0 109.6 96.3 108.2 104.7
Iowa St. 0-0 1-2 95.7 92.4 94.6 94.2
Kansas 0-0 0-3 79.1 72.8 77.1 76.3
             
Big 12 Averages     110.5 105.0 110.2 108.6
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 0-0 4-0 131.6 123.3 132.2 129.0
Michigan St. 0-0 4-0 118.3 114.2 118.1 116.9
Michigan 0-0 3-1 116.3 112.5 115.9 114.9
Penn St. 1-0 3-1 105.8 108.1 106.1 106.7
Indiana 0-0 4-0 95.6 97.6 95.4 96.2
Rutgers 0-1 2-2 97.3 94.0 95.1 95.5
Maryland 0-0 2-2 93.2 90.7 91.9 91.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 3-1 111.5 112.4 110.7 111.5
Nebraska 0-0 2-2 109.0 106.3 108.2 107.8
Minnesota 0-0 3-1 107.9 106.5 107.6 107.3
Northwestern 0-0 4-0 105.7 106.5 105.4 105.9
Iowa 0-0 4-0 104.5 107.7 105.4 105.9
Illinois 0-0 3-1 106.7 104.2 105.5 105.5
Purdue 0-0 1-3 97.4 97.0 95.7 96.7
             
Big Ten Averages     107.2 105.8 106.7 106.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 1-0 3-1 102.1 100.7 103.4 102.1
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-2 98.8 98.5 98.7 98.7
Marshall 0-0 3-1 95.0 94.8 95.4 95.1
Florida International 0-1 2-2 89.5 91.9 91.3 90.9
Florida Atlantic 1-0 1-3 81.7 85.7 82.1 83.2
Old Dominion 0-0 2-2 76.6 83.0 75.4 78.3
Charlotte 0-2 2-2 69.0 71.0 68.7 69.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 1-1 2-2 101.1 98.3 102.0 100.5
Rice 1-0 2-2 86.6 91.0 87.2 88.3
Southern Mississippi 0-0 2-2 87.8 88.3 87.2 87.8
UTEP 0-0 2-2 81.5 84.3 81.3 82.4
UT-San Antonio 0-0 0-4 78.3 81.3 79.5 79.7
North Texas 0-1 0-3 77.2 83.3 77.6 79.4
             
CUSA Averages     86.6 88.6 86.9 87.4
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   4-0 123.5 119.7 124.0 122.4
BYU   2-2 105.9 103.8 107.0 105.6
Army   1-3 79.2 90.1 80.9 83.4
             
Independents Averages     102.9 104.5 104.0 103.8
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 0-0 2-2 97.0 101.1 98.8 99.0
Ohio 0-0 3-1 93.2 97.6 95.0 95.3
Massachusetts 0-0 0-3 87.4 90.8 89.0 89.1
Akron 0-0 2-2 85.2 91.5 86.8 87.8
Buffalo 0-0 2-2 83.9 91.3 86.4 87.2
Kent St. 0-0 1-3 83.5 86.2 84.4 84.7
Miami (O) 0-0 1-3 75.1 80.3 75.0 76.8
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 3-0 101.3 99.6 102.5 101.1
Western Michigan 0-0 1-3 96.0 95.3 97.2 96.2
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-2 94.6 97.4 95.0 95.7
Ball St. 1-0 2-2 86.0 89.1 87.2 87.4
Central Michigan 0-0 1-3 85.3 89.3 87.3 87.3
Eastern Michigan 0-1 1-3 72.7 82.2 72.3 75.7
             
MAC Averages     87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 0-0 3-1 114.6 109.2 114.3 112.7
Air Force 1-0 2-1 94.8 100.0 94.6 96.5
Utah St. 0-0 1-2 95.9 94.4 96.0 95.4
Colorado St. 0-0 2-2 94.7 92.6 93.1 93.5
New Mexico 1-0 2-2 90.7 91.6 90.1 90.8
Wyoming 0-1 0-4 77.9 79.7 76.1 77.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-3 93.6 98.6 94.5 95.6
San Jose St. 1-1 2-2 92.7 96.2 93.0 94.0
Nevada 0-0 2-2 91.3 95.3 90.9 92.5
Hawaii 0-0 2-2 91.5 93.7 91.9 92.4
Fresno St. 0-1 1-3 85.6 91.7 83.9 87.1
UNLV 0-0 1-3 80.2 82.6 80.9 81.2
             
MWC Averages     92.0 93.8 91.6 92.5
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 2-0 3-1 118.2 117.0 118.2 117.8
California 1-0 4-0 117.8 113.0 118.2 116.3
Oregon 0-1 2-2 118.0 110.2 117.2 115.1
Washington 0-1 2-2 104.0 102.0 104.5 103.5
Washington St. 0-0 2-1 98.5 93.3 96.7 96.2
Oregon St. 0-1 2-2 93.0 91.4 92.1 92.2
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 1-1 3-1 123.8 120.4 124.2 122.8
UCLA 1-0 4-0 124.7 118.4 122.9 122.0
Utah 1-0 4-0 124.1 118.3 123.5 122.0
Arizona St. 0-1 2-2 112.1 106.9 110.6 109.9
Arizona 0-1 3-1 112.8 105.6 110.6 109.7
Colorado 0-0 3-1 106.0 101.7 105.3 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     112.8 108.2 112.0 111.0
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 2-0 4-0 124.5 116.8 123.8 121.7
Tennessee 0-1 2-2 119.9 115.6 119.5 118.3
Florida 2-0 4-0 112.2 108.9 111.8 111.0
Missouri 0-1 3-1 110.1 107.1 109.2 108.8
Kentucky 2-1 3-1 107.3 103.9 106.6 105.9
South Carolina 0-2 2-2 107.5 104.0 106.0 105.8
Vanderbilt 0-2 1-3 100.3 94.5 99.6 98.1
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ole Miss 2-0 4-0 128.6 122.0 126.8 125.8
LSU 2-0 3-0 124.5 121.1 124.1 123.2
Alabama 0-1 3-1 123.9 122.0 123.1 123.0
Texas A&M 1-0 4-0 120.3 118.2 119.2 119.2
Arkansas 0-1 1-3 117.5 111.4 116.5 115.1
Auburn 0-2 2-2 115.4 112.9 114.3 114.2
Mississippi St. 1-1 3-1 114.4 110.3 114.5 113.1
             
SEC Averages     116.2 112.1 115.4 114.5
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 2-1 96.1 99.8 98.5 98.1
Georgia Southern 1-0 3-1 94.7 97.4 95.4 95.8
Arkansas St. 0-0 1-3 88.9 88.4 89.6 89.0
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-2 83.1 87.4 83.3 84.6
Texas St. 0-0 1-3 81.2 85.1 80.9 82.4
UL-Monroe 0-0 1-2 83.1 79.9 82.8 81.9
South Alabama 0-0 2-2 75.4 83.2 77.0 78.5
Troy 0-0 1-2 75.3 75.0 77.0 75.8
Georgia St. 1-0 1-2 75.7 74.4 75.4 75.2
New Mexico St. 0-1 0-3 73.6 74.7 73.5 73.9
Idaho 0-1 1-3 70.4 78.3 71.7 73.5
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.6 84.0 82.3 82.6

PiRate Ratings of Each Conference

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 116.2 112.1 115.4 114.5
2 Pac-12 112.8 108.2 112.0 111.0
3 Big 12 110.5 105.0 110.2 108.6
4 ACC 107.6 108.5 107.3 107.8
5 Big Ten 107.2 105.8 106.7 106.5
6 Indep. 102.9 104.5 104.0 103.8
7 AAC 94.4 98.1 95.0 95.8
8 MWC 92.0 93.8 91.6 92.5
9 MAC 87.8 91.7 89.0 89.5
10 CUSA 86.6 88.6 86.9 87.4
11 SBC 81.6 84.0 82.3 82.6

 

If The Playoffs Began This Week

NCAA Playoffs
1 Ohio St.
2 Ole Miss
3 Michigan St.
4 TCU

10 Lowest Rated Teams From Power 5 Conferences

# Team
10 Kansas
9 Maryland
8 Oregon St.
7 Iowa St.
6 Rutgers
5 Washington St.
4 Purdue
3 Syracuse
2 Vanderbilt
1 Indiana

 

Top 5 Group of 5 Contenders For New Year’s 6 Bowl

# Team
1 Temple
2 Memphis
3 Houston
4 Toledo
5 Navy

 

Top 10 FCS Teams

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 96.8
2 South Dakota St. 93.8
3 North Dakota St. 92.3
4 Coastal Carolina 89.7
5 Harvard 89.5
6 Chattanooga 89.2
7 James Madison 88.9
8 Illinois St. 88.2
9 Northern Iowa 88.1
10 Portland St. 88.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, October 1        
Cincinnati Miami (Fla) -3.9 -4.7 -3.3
         
Friday, October 2    PiRate  Mean  Bias
South Florida Memphis -13.8 -6.9 -15.8
Charlotte Temple -36.3 -36.4 -37.9
BYU Connecticut 27.9 19.8 28.7
         
Saturday, October 3    PiRate  Mean  Bias
Virginia Tech Pittsburgh 11.0 6.3 10.0
Missouri South Carolina 5.6 6.1 6.2
Michigan St. Purdue 23.9 20.2 25.4
Northwestern Minnesota 0.3 2.5 0.3
Wisconsin Iowa 10.0 7.7 8.3
Penn St. Army 29.6 20.0 28.2
Iowa St. Kansas 18.6 21.6 19.5
Oklahoma West Virginia 7.4 10.0 8.1
TCU Texas 22.0 12.9 23.1
Tulane Central Florida 1.2 0.1 -2.1
Tulsa Houston -5.8 -7.9 -7.1
North Carolina St. Louisville 6.9 6.5 6.0
Akron Ohio U -6.0 -4.1 -5.2
Ball St. Toledo -12.8 -8.0 -12.8
California Washington St. 22.3 22.7 24.5
Massachusetts Florida Int’l 0.4 1.4 0.2
Central Michigan Northern Illinois -6.8 -5.6 -5.2
Appalachian St. Wyoming 21.7 23.6 25.9
Navy Air Force 6.8 4.8 7.4
Buffalo Bowling Green -10.1 -6.8 -9.4
Kent St. Miami (O) 10.4 7.9 11.4
Duke Boston College 8.2 2.9 10.7
Wake Forest Florida St. -17.3 -13.5 -17.0
Georgia Tech North Carolina 9.5 6.4 9.3
Georgia Alabama 3.6 -2.2 3.7
Baylor Texas Tech 15.9 21.8 16.5
Illinois Nebraska 0.7 0.9 0.3
Indiana Ohio St. -33.0 -22.7 -33.8
Marshall Old Dominion 20.9 14.3 22.5
Rice Western Kentucky -12.5 -6.7 -13.2
Oklahoma St. Kansas St. 5.7 19.3 7.6
Auburn San Jose St. 26.7 20.7 25.3
SMU East Carolina -3.1 -2.6 -3.4
Arkansas St. Idaho 21.5 13.1 20.9
Louisiana-Monroe Georgia Southern -8.6 -14.5 -9.6
Utah St. Colorado St. 4.2 4.8 5.9
Nevada UNLV 13.1 14.7 12.0
Troy South Alabama 1.9 -6.2 2.0
Florida Ole Miss -12.6 -10.1 -12.0
Tennessee Arkansas 5.4 7.2 6.0
LSU Eastern Michigan 54.8 41.9 54.8
Middle Tennessee Vanderbilt 0.5 6.0 1.1
Southern Miss. North Texas 13.1 7.5 12.1
Louisiana Tech Louisiana-Lafayette 20.0 12.9 20.7
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 8.9 10.9 7.7
UCLA Arizona St. 15.6 14.5 15.3
Clemson Notre Dame -5.1 -0.2 -5.7
UTEP UTSA 5.2 5.0 3.8
Maryland Michigan -20.1 -18.8 -21.0
New Mexico New Mexico St. 19.1 18.9 18.6
Colorado Oregon -9.0 -5.5 -8.9
Boise St. Hawaii 27.1 19.5 26.4
Stanford Arizona 8.4 14.4 10.6
San Diego St. Fresno St. 10.5 9.4 13.1
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 5 PiRate    
Georgia St. Liberty -5    
Kentucky Eastern Kentucky 28    

 

PiRate Rating Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Western Michigan * vs. Arkansas St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Rice
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Arizona St. vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U vs. South Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Appalachian St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA Temple vs. Marshall
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC San Diego St. * vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia MWC Army Nevada vs. Washington
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Western Kentucky vs. Toledo
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Tulsa vs. Hawaii
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA East Carolina vs. Middle Tennessee
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina St. vs. California
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Utah St. * vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse vs. Iowa
Independence SEC ACC Colorado St. * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Oregon
Military ACC AAC North Carolina vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Indiana
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Minnesota vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. West Virginia
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Mississippi St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Georgia Tech *
Belk ACC SEC Duke vs. Missouri
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Kentucky
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Baylor
Cotton Playoff Playoff Notre Dame vs. Utah
Orange Playoff Playoff Georgia vs. Michigan
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. USC
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Texas A&M
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan St. vs. Alabama
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. LSU
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. UCLA
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Ole Miss vs. Houston
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fl) vs. Florida
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Tennessee
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Arizona
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Georgia vs. Utah
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

September 9, 2015

PiRate Ratings College Football For Week 2: September 10-12, 2015

One week is all it took for the cream to rise to the top.  The Southeastern Conference, coming off a year in which its top team failed to play in the National Championship Game since Vince Young led Texas over Matt Leinert and USC in the 2006 Rose Bowl, placed 10 of its 14 teams in the nation’s top poll.  Yes, 40% of the Top 25 has an SEC flavor.  All seven SEC West teams are ranked.

Our PiRate Ratings have just nine SEC teams ranked in the top 25, but overall, we have the SEC separating itself from the number two league by almost five points per team.

Texas A&M, Auburn, and Alabama all won on neutral fields against teams from Power 5 conferences.  Additionally, the league’s top rival, the Pac-12 had a miserable weekend.  Arizona State failed to show up against Texas A&M.  Arizona just barely escaped lowly Texas-San Antonio.  Oregon State looked weak beating Weber St.  Washington State was worse than that; the Cougars lost at home to Portland State, and now Mike Leach is no longer looked upon as the genius he once was.

Colorado lost to a Hawaii team that hasn’t been decent in five years.  Even Oregon looked average in their win over Eastern Washington.

There were some bright spots.  UCLA, USC, Utah, and California all looked impressive in season-opening wins.  Washington put a scare on Boise State on the road.  Still, the league as a whole dropped well behind the SEC.

The Big 12 received a minor black eye in the opening week.  TCU looked beatable in their win at Minnesota.  Baylor did not look like a world beater against SMU.  Texas looked more like SMU of 2014 in their blowout loss to Notre Dame.  Oklahoma State had difficulties beating Central Michigan.  Texas Tech could have lost to Sam Houston.  And, Kansas lost at home to South Dakota St..

Week two brings a couple of interesting games worth watching.  Start with Oregon visiting Michigan State, where the loser is likely finished in the College Playoff race, while the winner moves up a couple places in the pecking order.  Neither team was all that impressive in week one, but both more than likely held back a lot of their repertoires on both sides of the ball.

Oklahoma visits Neyland Stadium to take on Tennessee in what looks like a tossup game.  The Vols’ offense looked unstoppable against a decent Bowling Green team, while Oklahoma looked solid but not spectacular against Akron.  This game should be exciting.

Two crucial SEC games should give the winners a leg up on bowl eligibility.  In the East, South Carolina hosts Kentucky, and the winner will be 2-0.  The Wildcats upset the Gamecocks in Lexington last year.  Mississippi State hosts an LSU team that played all of five minutes against McNeese State in week one with lightning coming out the victor.  Mississippi State needs an upset in league play to smell bowl eligibility this year.  The Bulldogs are raw on both sides of the ball.  It will be interesting to see how much LSU relies on Leonard Fornette and whether State can shut down the Tiger running game and force the Bayou Bengals to throw the ball.

In the AAC, Temple visits Cincinnati, and the winner of this game becomes a top contender for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowl game allocated to the top team from the Group of 5 conferences (AAC, MWC, Sun Belt, CUSA, and MAC plus BYU and Army among the Independents).

There are a couple of in-state rivalry games this week.  The Friday game, Utah State at Utah, may not be that close, but the Saturday game, Iowa at Iowa State, should be one of the most entertaining games of the week,

Then, there are a couple of under the radar games that we find interesting.  Wake Forest visits Syracuse, and the winner will improve to 2-0 with a chance to sneak into the bowl conversation in October.  Kansas State visits UT-San Antonio a week after UTSA put a scare on Arizona in Tucson.  Many times, when a team plays an incredible road game and loses in a close game that should have been a blowout loss, they return home the following week and have enough confidence to complete the surprise.  It would be quite a surprise if UTSA upset the Wildcats.

Missouri travels to Jonesboro, Arkansas, to take on Arkansas State, and this is a huge trap game for the Tigers.  Missouri has been a slow-starter in recent years, and ASU has enough talent to keep this game close and pull out a sneaky upset at the end.

And finally, there are three games where another poor performance following an opening week bomb could get the Bunsen Burners started warming up some seats.  Texas better look 100% better at home against Rice, or Charlie Strong might start facing a little heat.  Penn State needs to rebound against Buffalo and move the football for 400 yards and 35 points, or else James Franklin could feel a little heat in Happy Valley.  By far the coach with the most to lose this week is the coach with little chance of seeing his team compete.  Mike London and his Virginia Cavaliers take on Notre Dame, a week after facing UCLA at the Rose Bowl.  With Boise State scheduled to come to Charlottesville in week four, the Cavs better show up and give a good effort against the Irish and then demolish William and Mary next week, or London could be the first coach to get a pink slip during the season, when UVa is off in week five (Tim Beckman was fired at Illinois prior to the beginning of the season).

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Ohio St. 137.7 127.0 138.9 134.5
2 TCU 129.6 118.0 131.0 126.2
3 Ole Miss 129.0 121.4 127.3 125.9
4 Alabama 125.1 123.7 124.8 124.5
5 Baylor 125.0 121.1 125.5 123.9
6 LSU 125.2 120.9 125.1 123.7
7 Notre Dame 123.7 120.1 124.4 122.7
8 UCLA 125.2 118.0 123.4 122.2
9 Oregon 124.7 116.3 124.5 121.8
10 USC 123.3 118.6 123.2 121.7
11 Arkansas 123.8 117.8 123.4 121.7
12 Auburn 121.3 119.8 120.5 120.5
13 Oklahoma 121.4 118.3 121.8 120.5
14 Georgia 123.6 115.2 122.7 120.5
15 Michigan St. 121.6 115.6 121.8 119.7
16 Tennessee 121.1 116.6 121.1 119.6
17 Texas A&M 119.7 117.5 118.6 118.6
18 Georgia Tech 120.8 112.0 120.2 117.7
19 Utah 119.4 112.3 118.8 116.8
20 California 118.2 112.0 118.5 116.2
21 Stanford 116.5 113.3 117.1 115.6
22 Clemson 114.6 115.7 114.5 114.9
23 Florida St. 115.2 115.2 113.9 114.8
24 West Virginia 116.2 110.8 115.6 114.2
25 Missouri 115.6 111.6 115.1 114.1
26 Arizona St. 116.2 110.4 114.8 113.8
27 Virginia Tech 114.3 110.3 114.4 113.0
28 Wisconsin 112.7 113.0 112.4 112.7
29 Oklahoma St. 112.1 112.3 112.5 112.3
30 Boise St. 114.3 108.5 113.6 112.1
31 Florida 113.5 108.9 113.0 111.8
32 Michigan 112.9 108.7 112.2 111.3
33 Louisville 110.3 112.5 110.6 111.1
34 Minnesota 111.6 109.7 112.0 111.1
35 North Carolina 111.1 111.0 110.3 110.8
36 Mississippi St. 112.4 107.7 112.1 110.7
37 Arizona 113.6 105.6 111.5 110.2
38 Miami 109.1 110.0 109.6 109.6
39 North Carolina St. 109.2 111.0 108.2 109.5
40 South Carolina 109.9 107.2 109.1 108.7
41 Nebraska 110.1 106.4 109.3 108.6
42 Penn St. 107.8 109.8 108.1 108.6
43 Temple 107.1 109.8 108.4 108.4
44 Texas 108.0 106.6 107.6 107.4
45 Illinois 107.6 105.3 107.0 106.6
46 Northwestern 106.2 107.1 105.7 106.3
47 Cincinnati 104.7 105.1 106.2 105.3
48 Pittsburgh 104.0 105.8 105.5 105.1
49 Kansas St. 111.0 94.6 109.3 105.0
50 Memphis 104.4 104.7 105.7 104.9
51 BYU 104.8 103.3 106.2 104.8
52 Colorado 105.5 101.1 104.6 103.7
53 Kentucky 105.2 101.7 104.3 103.7
54 Duke 102.0 102.7 103.1 102.6
55 Texas Tech 106.1 95.5 105.3 102.3
56 Iowa 100.9 104.1 101.0 102.0
57 Washington 102.5 100.5 102.6 101.9
58 Virginia 103.0 100.0 102.2 101.7
59 Boston College 99.9 105.0 98.4 101.1
60 Western Kentucky 101.0 98.8 102.1 100.6
61 Louisiana Tech 100.4 98.1 101.2 99.9
62 Purdue 99.6 99.4 97.9 99.0
63 Wake Forest 97.4 102.2 97.0 98.9
64 San Diego St. 96.1 102.4 97.8 98.8
65 Western Michigan 97.9 98.7 99.5 98.7
66 Navy 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
67 Houston 94.6 103.0 97.2 98.3
68 Rutgers 99.4 96.8 97.8 98.0
69 Marshall 97.5 97.2 98.3 97.7
70 Maryland 98.4 94.3 97.0 96.6
71 Toledo 96.0 94.4 96.9 95.8
72 Indiana 95.3 96.7 95.2 95.7
73 Washington St. 98.5 92.0 96.7 95.7
74 Middle Tennessee 95.9 95.4 95.3 95.5
75 Vanderbilt 97.7 91.7 96.4 95.3
76 Syracuse 94.2 98.2 93.1 95.2
77 Utah St. 95.1 94.3 95.4 94.9
78 Bowling Green 91.8 97.5 93.6 94.3
79 Iowa St. 96.0 92.2 94.7 94.3
80 Appalachian St. 92.5 95.7 94.6 94.3
81 Colorado St. 95.6 93.1 93.6 94.1
82 Central Florida 92.0 96.2 93.3 93.8
83 Air Force 92.3 97.8 91.3 93.8
84 New Mexico 93.5 94.6 93.0 93.7
85 San Jose St. 92.3 95.9 92.2 93.5
86 Nevada 90.9 95.8 90.2 92.3
87 Northern Illinois 91.2 94.3 91.3 92.3
88 Ohio 90.1 95.1 91.6 92.3
89 Hawaii 90.5 93.5 91.1 91.7
90 Oregon St. 92.6 90.2 91.6 91.5
91 Georgia Southern 90.9 92.7 90.7 91.4
92 Fresno St. 88.3 97.1 87.7 91.0
93 East Carolina 88.8 94.7 89.2 90.9
94 South Florida 88.3 96.2 88.1 90.9
95 Florida International 88.6 91.4 90.5 90.2
96 Tulane 89.6 92.5 88.0 90.0
97 Tulsa 86.5 93.3 87.4 89.1
98 Massachusetts 86.8 90.4 88.6 88.6
99 Rice 86.7 91.3 86.9 88.3
100 Arkansas St. 87.9 88.0 88.7 88.2
101 Ball St. 86.2 88.6 87.4 87.4
102 UTEP 85.1 89.1 85.4 86.5
103 UL-Lafayette 85.0 89.1 85.4 86.5
104 Akron 82.7 89.5 84.2 85.5
105 Texas St. 83.8 88.5 83.9 85.4
106 Florida Atlantic 83.4 88.0 84.4 85.3
107 SMU 83.8 88.8 83.1 85.2
108 Southern Mississippi 85.6 85.2 84.2 85.0
109 Central Michigan 82.0 88.0 83.9 84.6
110 North Texas 81.7 88.9 83.0 84.5
111 Old Dominion 81.1 88.7 80.2 83.3
112 Buffalo 80.1 87.6 82.1 83.3
113 Kent St. 80.9 83.9 81.3 82.0
114 Connecticut 79.5 86.1 79.3 81.6
115 Wyoming 81.4 83.7 79.6 81.6
116 UT-San Antonio 78.3 84.5 79.9 80.9
117 Army 76.4 87.5 77.8 80.6
118 UL-Monroe 81.4 78.0 80.7 80.0
119 South Alabama 76.0 84.7 77.8 79.5
120 Miami (O) 76.1 83.4 76.2 78.6
121 UNLV 77.5 80.6 77.6 78.6
122 Kansas 79.9 72.9 77.8 76.9
123 Eastern Michigan 72.1 83.2 72.1 75.8
124 New Mexico St. 74.4 75.5 74.5 74.8
125 Idaho 70.9 80.6 72.6 74.7
126 Georgia St. 73.4 72.2 72.4 72.7
127 Troy 72.1 71.6 72.8 72.2
128 Charlotte 70.8 73.0 70.6 71.5

Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 0-0 1-0 107.1 109.8 108.4 108.4
Cincinnati 0-0 1-0 104.7 105.1 106.2 105.3
Central Florida 0-0 0-1 92.0 96.2 93.3 93.8
East Carolina 0-0 1-0 88.8 94.7 89.2 90.9
South Florida 0-0 1-0 88.3 96.2 88.1 90.9
Connecticut 0-0 1-0 79.5 86.1 79.3 81.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 1-0 104.4 104.7 105.7 104.9
Houston 0-0 1-0 94.6 103.0 97.2 98.3
Navy 0-0 1-0 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
Tulane 0-0 0-1 89.6 92.5 88.0 90.0
Tulsa 0-0 1-0 86.5 93.3 87.4 89.1
SMU 0-0 0-1 83.8 88.8 83.1 85.2
             
AAC Averages     93.1 97.6 93.6 94.8
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 0-0 1-0 114.6 115.7 114.5 114.9
Florida St. 0-0 1-0 115.2 115.2 113.9 114.8
Louisville 0-0 0-1 110.3 112.5 110.6 111.1
North Carolina St. 0-0 1-0 109.2 111.0 108.2 109.5
Boston College 0-0 1-0 99.9 105.0 98.4 101.1
Wake Forest 0-0 1-0 97.4 102.2 97.0 98.9
Syracuse 0-0 1-0 94.2 98.2 93.1 95.2
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Tech 0-0 1-0 120.8 112.0 120.2 117.7
Virginia Tech 0-0 0-1 114.3 110.3 114.4 113.0
North Carolina 0-0 0-1 111.1 111.0 110.3 110.8
Miami 0-0 1-0 109.1 110.0 109.6 109.6
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-0 104.0 105.8 105.5 105.1
Duke 0-0 1-0 102.0 102.7 103.1 102.6
Virginia 0-0 0-1 103.0 100.0 102.2 101.7
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.0 107.2 107.6
             
Big 12 Conference
  Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
TCU 0-0 1-0 129.6 118.0 131.0 126.2
Baylor 0-0 1-0 125.0 121.1 125.5 123.9
Oklahoma 0-0 1-0 121.4 118.3 121.8 120.5
West Virginia 0-0 1-0 116.2 110.8 115.6 114.2
Oklahoma St. 0-0 1-0 112.1 112.3 112.5 112.3
Texas 0-0 0-1 108.0 106.6 107.6 107.4
Kansas St. 0-0 1-0 111.0 94.6 109.3 105.0
Texas Tech 0-0 1-0 106.1 95.5 105.3 102.3
Iowa St. 0-0 1-0 96.0 92.2 94.7 94.3
Kansas 0-0 0-1 79.9 72.9 77.8 76.9
             
Big 12 Averages     110.5 104.2 110.1 108.3
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 0-0 1-0 137.7 127.0 138.9 134.5
Michigan St. 0-0 1-0 121.6 115.6 121.8 119.7
Michigan 0-0 0-1 112.9 108.7 112.2 111.3
Penn St. 0-0 0-1 107.8 109.8 108.1 108.6
Rutgers 0-0 1-0 99.4 96.8 97.8 98.0
Maryland 0-0 1-0 98.4 94.3 97.0 96.6
Indiana 0-0 1-0 95.3 96.7 95.2 95.7
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 0-1 112.7 113.0 112.4 112.7
Minnesota 0-0 0-1 111.6 109.7 112.0 111.1
Nebraska 0-0 0-1 110.1 106.4 109.3 108.6
Illinois 0-0 1-0 107.6 105.3 107.0 106.6
Northwestern 0-0 1-0 106.2 107.1 105.7 106.3
Iowa 0-0 1-0 100.9 104.1 101.0 102.0
Purdue 0-0 0-1 99.6 99.4 97.9 99.0
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 106.7 108.3 107.9
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 0-0 1-0 101.0 98.8 102.1 100.6
Marshall 0-0 1-0 97.5 97.2 98.3 97.7
Middle Tennessee 0-0 1-0 95.9 95.4 95.3 95.5
Florida International 0-0 1-0 88.6 91.4 90.5 90.2
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-1 83.4 88.0 84.4 85.3
Old Dominion 0-0 1-0 81.1 88.7 80.2 83.3
Charlotte 0-0 1-0 70.8 73.0 70.6 71.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-0 100.4 98.1 101.2 99.9
Rice 0-0 1-0 86.7 91.3 86.9 88.3
UTEP 0-0 0-1 85.1 89.1 85.4 86.5
Southern Mississippi 0-0 0-1 85.6 85.2 84.2 85.0
North Texas 0-0 0-0 81.7 88.9 83.0 84.5
UT-San Antonio 0-0 2-1 78.3 84.5 79.9 80.9
             
CUSA Averages     87.4 90.0 87.8 88.4
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   1-0 123.7 120.1 124.4 122.7
BYU   1-0 104.8 103.3 106.2 104.8
Army   0-1 76.4 87.5 77.8 80.6
             
Independents Averages     101.6 103.6 102.8 102.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 0-0 0-1 91.8 97.5 93.6 94.3
Ohio 0-0 1-0 90.1 95.1 91.6 92.3
Massachusetts 0-0 0-0 86.8 90.4 88.6 88.6
Akron 0-0 0-1 82.7 89.5 84.2 85.5
Buffalo 0-0 1-0 80.1 87.6 82.1 83.3
Kent St. 0-0 0-1 80.9 83.9 81.3 82.0
Miami (O) 0-0 1-0 76.1 83.4 76.2 78.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 0-0 0-1 97.9 98.7 99.5 98.7
Toledo 0-0 0-0 96.0 94.4 96.9 95.8
Northern Illinois 0-0 1-0 91.2 94.3 91.3 92.3
Ball St. 0-0 1-0 86.2 88.6 87.4 87.4
Central Michigan 0-0 0-1 82.0 88.0 83.9 84.6
Eastern Michigan 0-0 0-1 72.1 83.2 72.1 75.8
             
MAC Averages     85.7 90.4 86.8 87.6
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 0-0 1-0 114.3 108.5 113.6 112.1
Utah St. 0-0 1-0 95.1 94.3 95.4 94.9
Colorado St. 0-0 1-0 95.6 93.1 93.6 94.1
Air Force 0-0 1-0 92.3 97.8 91.3 93.8
New Mexico 0-0 1-0 93.5 94.6 93.0 93.7
Wyoming 0-0 0-1 81.4 83.7 79.6 81.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 1-0 96.1 102.4 97.8 98.8
Nevada 0-0 1-0 90.9 95.8 90.2 92.3
San Jose St. 0-0 1-0 92.3 95.9 92.2 93.5
Hawaii 0-0 1-0 90.5 93.5 91.1 91.7
Fresno St. 0-0 1-0 88.3 97.1 87.7 91.0
UNLV 0-0 0-1 77.5 80.6 77.6 78.6
             
MWC Averages     92.3 94.8 91.9 93.0
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 0-0 1-0 124.7 116.3 124.5 121.8
California 0-0 1-0 118.2 112.0 118.5 116.2
Stanford 0-0 0-1 116.5 113.3 117.1 115.6
Washington 0-0 0-1 102.5 100.5 102.6 101.9
Washington St. 0-0 0-1 98.5 92.0 96.7 95.7
Oregon St. 0-0 1-0 92.6 90.2 91.6 91.5
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
UCLA 0-0 1-0 125.2 118.0 123.4 122.2
USC 0-0 1-0 123.3 118.6 123.2 121.7
Utah 0-0 1-0 119.4 112.3 118.8 116.8
Arizona St. 0-0 0-1 116.2 110.4 114.8 113.8
Arizona 0-0 1-0 113.6 105.6 111.5 110.2
Colorado 0-0 0-1 105.5 101.1 104.6 103.7
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.0 107.5 112.3 110.9
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 1-0 123.6 115.2 122.7 120.5
Tennessee 0-0 1-0 121.1 116.6 121.1 119.6
Missouri 0-0 1-0 115.6 111.6 115.1 114.1
Florida 0-0 1-0 113.5 108.9 113.0 111.8
South Carolina 0-0 1-0 109.9 107.2 109.1 108.7
Kentucky 0-0 1-0 105.2 101.7 104.3 103.7
Vanderbilt 0-0 0-1 97.7 91.7 96.4 95.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ole Miss 0-0 1-0 129.0 121.4 127.3 125.9
Alabama 0-0 1-0 125.1 123.7 124.8 124.5
LSU 0-0 0-0 125.2 120.9 125.1 123.7
Arkansas 0-0 1-0 123.8 117.8 123.4 121.7
Auburn 0-0 1-0 121.3 119.8 120.5 120.5
Texas A&M 0-0 1-0 119.7 117.5 118.6 118.6
Mississippi St. 0-0 1-0 112.4 107.7 112.1 110.7
             
SEC Averages     117.4 113.0 116.7 115.7
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 1-0 92.5 95.7 94.6 94.3
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-1 90.9 92.7 90.7 91.4
Arkansas St. 0-0 0-1 87.9 88.0 88.7 88.2
UL-Lafayette 0-0 0-1 85.0 89.1 85.4 86.5
Texas St. 0-0 0-1 83.8 88.5 83.9 85.4
UL-Monroe 0-0 0-1 81.4 78.0 80.7 80.0
South Alabama 0-0 1-0 76.0 84.7 77.8 79.5
New Mexico St. 0-0 0-1 74.4 75.5 74.5 74.8
Idaho 0-0 0-1 70.9 80.6 72.6 74.7
Georgia St. 0-0 0-1 73.4 72.2 72.4 72.7
Troy 0-0 0-1 72.1 71.6 72.8 72.2
             
Sun Belt Averages     80.8 83.3 81.3 81.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 117.4 113.0 116.7 115.7
2 Pac-12 113.0 107.5 112.3 110.9
3 Big 12 110.5 104.2 110.1 108.3
4 Big Ten 108.7 106.7 108.3 107.9
5 ACC 107.5 108.0 107.2 107.6
6 Independents 101.6 103.6 102.8 102.7
7 AAC 93.1 97.6 93.6 94.8
8 MWC 92.3 94.8 91.9 93.0
9 CUSA 87.4 90.0 87.8 88.4
10 MAC 85.7 90.4 86.8 87.6
11 Sun Belt 80.8 83.3 81.3 81.8
Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Kansas 79.9 72.9 77.8 76.9
2 Oregon St. 92.6 90.2 91.6 91.5
3 Iowa St. 96.0 92.2 94.7 94.3
4 Syracuse 94.2 98.2 93.1 95.2
5 Vanderbilt 97.7 91.7 96.4 95.3
6 Indiana 95.3 96.7 95.2 95.7
7 Washington St. 98.5 92.0 96.7 95.7
8 Maryland 98.4 94.3 97.0 96.6
9 Rutgers 99.4 96.8 97.8 98.0
10 Virginia 103.0 100.0 102.2 101.7
Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Boise St. 114.3 108.5 113.6 112.1
2 Temple 107.1 109.8 108.4 108.4
3 Cincinnati 104.7 105.1 106.2 105.3
4 Memphis 104.4 104.7 105.7 104.9
5 BYU 104.8 103.3 106.2 104.8
6 Western Kentucky 101.0 98.8 102.1 100.6
7 Louisiana Tech 100.4 98.1 101.2 99.9
8 San Diego St. 96.1 102.4 97.8 98.8
9 Western Michigan 97.9 98.7 99.5 98.7
10 Navy 97.6 100.4 97.6 98.5
FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 93.7
2 South Dakota St. 93.4
3 North Dakota St. 91.8
4 Coastal Carolina 90.6
5 Illinois St. 88.4
6 Eastern Washington 88.0
7 SE Louisiana 86.7
8 Cal Poly 86.6
9 Northern Iowa 86.1
10 Harvard 85.2
This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 10        
Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 3.1 3.2 3.4
         
Friday, September 11        
Florida Atlantic Miami (FL) -24.0 -20.3 -23.5
Utah Utah St. 26.3 20.0 25.4
         
Saturday, September 12        
Florida St. South Florida 28.4 20.2 27.1
Michigan Oregon St. 23.1 21.6 23.2
Connecticut Army 5.1 0.6 3.5
UT-San Antonio Kansas St. -30.2 -7.6 -26.9
Maryland Bowling Green 9.4 -0.4 6.2
Louisville Houston 18.3 12.4 16.1
Penn St. Buffalo 34.2 28.3 32.8
Wisconsin Miami (O) 40.1 33.4 40.0
Syracuse Wake Forest -0.4 -1.2 -1.1
Clemson Appalachian St. 24.5 22.4 22.3
Colorado Massachusetts 22.2 24.2 19.5
Texas Tech UTEP 23.5 8.9 22.4
Ohio St. Hawaii 51.2 37.5 47.4
Colorado St. Minnesota -11.9 -13.7 -14.0
Rutgers Washington St. 4.2 8.1 4.4
Georgia Tech Tulane 32.8 21.1 33.8
Virginia Notre Dame -18.2 -17.3 -19.8
Vanderbilt Georgia -23.9 -21.5 -24.3
Ole Miss Fresno St. 44.2 27.8 43.1
Alabama Middle Tennessee 32.2 31.3 32.5
Arkansas Toledo 30.8 26.4 29.5
Wyoming Eastern Michigan 12.3 3.5 10.5
Iowa St. Iowa -3.7 -10.7 -5.1
California San Diego St. 24.6 12.1 23.2
Tennessee Oklahoma 2.7 1.3 2.3
Akron Pittsburgh -19.8 -14.8 -19.8
Georgia Southern Western Michigan -4.0 -3.0 -5.8
Ohio Marshall -4.9 0.4 -4.2
SMU North Texas 4.1 1.9 2.1
Nevada Arizona -19.7 -6.8 -18.3
Texas A&M Ball St. 36.5 31.9 34.2
Arkansas St. Missouri -25.2 -21.1 -23.9
Florida East Carolina 27.7 17.2 26.8
Kansas Memphis -22.0 -29.3 -25.4
South Carolina Kentucky 7.7 8.5 7.8
USC Idaho 55.4 41.0 53.6
Michigan St. Oregon 0.8 2.6 1.6
Nebraska South Alabama 38.2 25.7 35.7
Texas Rice 23.8 17.8 23.2
Indiana Florida Int’l 12.0 10.6 10.0
New Mexico St. Georgia St. 3.5 5.8 4.6
Cincinnati Temple 0.6 -1.7 0.8
New Mexico Tulsa 10.0 4.3 8.6
Mississippi St. LSU -9.8 -10.2 -10.0
Air Force San Jose St. 3.0 4.9 2.1
BYU Boise St. -6.5 -2.2 -4.4
UNLV UCLA -45.2 -34.9 -43.3
Stanford Central Florida 27.5 20.1 26.8
         
FBS vs. FCS Week 2 PiRate    
Auburn Jacksonville St. 35    
Illinois Western Illinois 23    
Purdue Indiana St. 19    
Charlotte Presbyterian 11    
Boston College Howard 42    
Washington Sacramento St. 36    
West Virginia Liberty 42    
Central Michigan Monmouth 30    
Northern Illinois Murray St. 37    
Southern Miss. Austin Peay 34    
TCU Stephen F. Austin 53    
Virginia Tech Furman 40    
Northwestern Eastern Illinois 34    
Duke UNC-Central 37    
North Carolina North Carolina A&T 32    
N.C. St. Eastern Kentucky 34    
Kent St. Delaware St. 29    
UL-Lafayette Northwestern St. 21    
UL-Monroe Nicholls St. 36    
Texas St. Prairie View 26    
Troy Charleston Southern 6    
Old Dominion Norfolk St. 26    
Oklahoma St. Central Arkansas 36    
Baylor Lamar 50    
Arizona St. Cal Poly 34    

September 1, 2015

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:46 pm

Check back Wednesday afternoon, September 2, 2015, for additional coverage of week one of the college football season.

For now, enjoy the initial PiRate Rating spreads for games between FBS school.  Tomorrow’s update will include FBS vs. FCS games.

This Week’s Games
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Thursday, September 3
North Carolina (N) South Carolina 3.6 6.4 4.0
Central Florida Florida Int’l 8.4 11.2 8.4
Central Michigan Oklahoma St. -30.3 -23.5 -29.0
Vanderbilt Western Kentucky 0.4 -3.8 -2.0
Utah Michigan 9.9 6.4 10.4
Minnesota T C U -17.5 -5.4 -19.1
Idaho Ohio U 16.5 10.6 15.9
Tulane Duke -4.0 -1.2 -3.9
Arizona U T S A 49.3 31.3 48.6
Hawaii Colorado -16.8 -7.0 -15.9
         
Friday, September 4        
Georgia St. Charlotte 8.2 3.4 7.6
Western Michigan Michigan St. 23.5 15.5 22.9
S M U Baylor -40.2 -29.9 -41.8
Illinois Kent St. 21.3 14.4 18.5
Boise St. Washington 16.3 12.3 16.1
         
Saturday, September 5        
Georgia Louisiana-Monroe 45.0 39.6 44.4
Northwestern Stanford 12.7 7.6 14.6
Eastern Michigan Old Dominion 6.9 2.8 6.2
Nebraska B Y U 8.2 5.8 6.2
Temple Penn St. 6.4 4.9 6.0
Tulsa Florida Atlantic 7.5 10.5 8.0
Arkansas U T E P 42.3 30.9 42.0
Auburn (N) Louisville 11.8 7.5 9.9
U C L A Virginia 27.2 22.4 26.4
Tennessee (N) Bowling Green 32.2 20.4 29.8
N. Carolina St. Troy 40.5 44.0 39.0
Oklahoma Akron 44.6 31.5 41.5
Texas A&M (N) Arizona St. -0.8 2.6 -2.3
Kentucky Louisiana-Lafayette 25.3 16.5 24.4
Notre Dame Texas 13.1 10.1 12.6
West Virginia Georgia Southern 33.9 25.3 32.9
Florida N. Mexico St. 39.6 33.3 38.6
Northern Illinois U N L V 18.2 18.6 18.8
Alabama (N) Wisconsin 11.4 9.1 10.8
Florida St. Texas St. 33.4 28.1 31.6
Southern Miss. Mississippi St. -25.4 -20.7 -27.1
U S C Arkansas St. 36.8 31.0 40.9
         
Sunday, September 6        
Marshall Purdue -1.0 -1.5 1.7
         
Monday, September 7        
Virginia Tech Ohio St. -15.0 -6.5 -16.1

August 10, 2015

2015 Sun Belt Conference Preview

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 pm

Today, the PiRate Ratings begins previewing the FBS conferences for 2015-16 with the Sun Belt Conference preview.  While this league has perennially been the weakest of the FBS conferences, the gap is closing thanks to a couple of new teams entering the league in recent years.

Last year, Georgia Southern became the first team since Arkansas St. in 2011 to run the table.  The Eagles were not bowl eligible in 2014, but they are now, and they figure to be in the hunt in the conference race.

Another team that can make a bowl trip for the first time this year is Appalachian St.  The Mountaineers, like Georgia Southern, have won a national championship, albeit in the FCS.  However, Appy State is most noted for upsetting Michigan at “The Big House.”

Arkansas St. had five different head coaches in the last five seasons, but the Red Wolves finally retained a coach in Blake Anderson.  Anderson’s Wolves should remain in contention in the SBC race.

Dennis Franchione is primed to take Texas St. to its first bowl after failing to garner a bid last year even though they were 7-5.

UL-Lafayette is looking to make it five consecutive trips to the New Orleans Bowl.  Chances are good the Ragin’ Cajuns will be bowl eligible again.

UL-Monroe and South Alabama should come up a bit short this year, while New Mexico St. and Georgia St. figure to improve a little in the standings.

Idaho and Troy figure to fight it out to avoid the cellar.

Here is the Sun Belt Conference Media Poll For 2015

Sun Belt Conference Media Poll
Pos. Team 1st Place Total
 1 Georgia Southern 6 110
 2 UL-Lafayette 3 108
 3 Arkansas St. 1 96
 4 Appalachian St. 0 82
 5 Texas St. 0 78
 6 South Alabama 1 68
 7 UL-Monroe 0 59
 8 Troy 0 39
 9 Georgia St. 0 32
10 N. Mexico St. 0 30
11 Idaho 0 24

Here is the Preseason All-Conference team as voted by the media.

Sun Belt Conference Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense Player School
Quarterback Fredi Knighten Arkansas St.
Running Back Matt Breida Georgia Southern
Running Back Elijah McGuire UL-Lafayette
Wide Receiver J. D. McKissic Arkansas St.
Wide Receiver Donovan Harden Georgia St.
Wide Receiver Rashon Ceaser UL-Monroe
Tight End Joel Ruiz Georgia St.
Offensive Line Jesse Chapman Appalachian St.
Offensive Line Darien Foreman Georgia Southern
Offensive Line Chris May South Alabama
Offensive Line Joseph Scelfo South Alabama
Offensive Line Adrian Bellard Texas St.
Defense Player School
Defensive Line Ronald Blair Appalachian St.
Defensive Line Ja’Von Rolland-Jones Arkansas St.
Defensive Line Chris Stone Arkansas St.
Defensive Line Gerrand Johnson UL-Monroe
Linebacker John Law Appalachian St.
Linebacker Xavier Woodson Arkansas St.
Linebacker Joseph Peterson Georgia St.
Defensive Back Doug Middleton Appalachian St.
Defensive Back Mitch Lane UL-Monroe
Defensive Back David Mims II Texas St.
Defensive Back Montres Kitchens Troy
Special Teams Player School
Kicker Aleem Sumanon South Alabama
Punter Austin Rehkow Idaho
Return Specialist Blaise Taylor Arkansas St.

Here are the Preseason PiRate Ratings for the Sun Belt Conference

Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 91.9 95.1 94.0 93.7
Georgia Southern 91.4 93.9 91.5 92.3
Arkansas St. 88.5 89.1 89.2 88.9
Texas St. 84.1 89.1 84.4 85.9
UL-Lafayette 83.4 88.1 83.6 85.0
UL-Monroe 81.3 78.1 80.8 80.1
South Alabama 76.6 85.3 78.4 80.1
Georgia St. 75.0 73.1 74.1 74.1
New Mexico St. 74.7 76.1 75.0 75.3
Troy 71.2 70.1 71.8 71.0
Idaho 70.8 81.1 72.7 74.9
Sun Belt Averages 80.8 83.6 81.4 81.9

Here are the predicted regular season records for the Sun Belt Conference

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos Team Conf. Overall Bowl
1 Appalachian St. 7-1 10-2 GoDaddy
2 UL-Lafayette 6-2 8-4 New Orleans
3 Texas St. 6-2 8-4 Camelia
4 Georgia Southern 6-2 7-5 At-Large
5 Arkansas St. 6-2 7-5 Cure
6 UL-Monroe 4-4 5-8 None
7 South Alabama 3-5 4-8 None
8 N. Mexico St. 3-5 3-9 None
9 Georgia St. 1-7 3-9 None
10 Idaho 1-7 2-10 None
11 Troy 1-7 2-10 None

March 31, 2015

Final Four Preview–Semifinals

Team Team Tip Time Network
Kentucky (38-0) Wisconsin (35-3) 6:09 PM EDT TBS
Duke (33-4) Michigan St. (27-11) 8:49 PM EDT TBS

Indianapolis will be rocking Saturday night as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four promises to be exciting with the potential for two close games.

The four teams share similar statistical competence where past National Champions have dominated, namely in rebounding.  As we told you a couple weeks ago, the one statistic that has 100% correlation with the National Champion is positive rebounding margin.  Since 1954, when complete rebounding statistics were archived, every National Champion has finished the season with positive rebounding margin.  This is not true for the other statistics, as we have crowned champions with negative field goal margin, negative turnover margin, and negative free throw margin.

This year is no different; the four combatants are all dominant rebounding teams, each outrebounding their opposition by more than five per game.

Looking back at the remaining Pirate Ratings Final Four Criteria, we have four teams that fit our mold like a glove.  All four have scoring margins greater than 8.0 per game, with three holding double-digit socring margins.  Two of the four hold 8% or greater field goal percentage margins, with one pushing that number into double digits.  Three of the four have better than 75% winning percentage away from their home floor, and all four have fat R+T ratings.

Final Four Offensive Statistics

Team FG FGA 3pt 3pta FT FTa OR DR TO Stl
Duke 1049 2090 277 711 567 816 432 935 408 265
Kentucky  980 2096 200 577 676 933 485 975 402 248
Michigan St. 992 2126 287 743 441 698 427 998 427 199
Wisconsin 966 2006 274 752 560 733 360 909 281 170

Final Four Defensive Statistics

Team FG FGA 3pt 3pta FT FTa OR DR TO Stl
Duke 915 2165 185 592 363 522 408 751 462 209
Kentucky  727 2068 168 629 425 650 451 730 523 181
Michigan St. 807 2054 222 702 565 783 371 840 409 208
Wisconsin 846 1987 195 522 308 439 285 766 367 154

Four Factors Statistics

Team EFG DEFG OR% DOR% TO% DTU% FT* DFT*
Duke 56.8 46.5 36.5 30.4 16.6 18.7 23.1 14.7
Kentucky  51.5 39.2 39.9 31.6 16.4 21.4 27.5 17.4
Michigan St. 53.4 44.7 33.7 27.1 17.4 16.6 17.9 22.9
Wisconsin 55.0 47.5 32.0 23.9 12.4 16.1 24.6 13.5

PiRate Ratings Criteria Statistics for Final Four

Team PPG D PPG Mar. FG-M Rb-M TO-M R+T WLRd W-L SOS Poss.
Duke 79.5 64.3 15.2 7.9 5.6 1.5 16.6 14-2 33-4 61.8 66.3
Kentucky  74.6 53.9 20.8 11.6 7.3 3.2 22.4 18-0 38-0 58.7 64.6
Michigan St. 71.4 63.2 8.2 7.4 5.6 -0.5 13.9 13-6 27-11 67.0 64.7
Wisconsin 72.8 57.8 15.0 5.6 5.7 2.3 17.9 20-2 35-3 61.1 59.9

PiRate Ratings For Semifinal Round

Team Team Red White Blue
Kentucky Wisconsin 3 3 6
Duke Michigan St. 6 5 8

100 Computer Simulations For Semifinal Round

Kentucky vs. Wisconsin

Kentucky Wins: 94

Wisconsin Wins: 6

Average Score: Kentucky 71  Wisconsin 62

Outlier A: Kentucky 78  Wisconsin 62

Outlier B: Wisconsin 64  Kentucky 59

Duke vs. Michigan St.

Duke Wins: 84

Michigan St. Wins: 16

Average Score: Duke 77  Michigan St. 70

Outlier A: Duke 84  Michigan St. 62

Outlier B: Michigan St. 73  Duke 64

September 25, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–September 26-30, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:46 pm

Interesting Games This Week

Atlanta vs. New England

A loss at home this week could find the Falcons three games behind the Saints and possibly a game behind Carolina.  New England coach Bill Belichick is winning like he won with Cleveland—excellent defense and enough offense to get by.  When Rob Gronkowski is healthy enough to contribute, this team will be hard to beat if they continue to lead the AFC in scoring defense.

 

Cleveland vs. Cincinnati

This rivalry game is usually closer than the pointspread.  Should Cleveland find a way to pull off the upset at home, they will be tied with the Bengals at 2-2 and possible the Ravens as well.  Cinti must win this game to be considered one of the league’s elite.

 

Detroit vs. Chicago

The winner of this game will be in first place, and if the Bears are that team, they will open up a two game lead in the NFC North.  If Chicago wins this game, their schedule sets them up for a 7-0 or 6-1 record heading into their bye week and the trip to Lambeau Field.  Detroit appears to have the more difficult schedule in the next six weeks, so this game is more important to the Lions.

 

Houston vs. Seattle

All of a sudden, this game becomes a lot more important to the Texans than most thought a couple weeks ago.  After surviving an overtime thriller against Tennessee two weeks ago, Houston failed to show up against Baltimore.  If the Texans lose this game, they could fall to third place.  After this game, the Texans go to San Francisco.  Two weeks later, they play at Kansas City.  Following the bye, they host Indianapolis, so there are enough roadblocks to see this team failing to repeat as AFC South champions should they lose this game.

 

Seattle looks strong enough to earn home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and if this happens, they will be a heavy favorite to make the Super Bowl.  If they win this game, there is not much that can derail a minimum of a 12-4 regular season record with a ceiling of 15-1.

 

New Orleans vs. Miami

The winner of this game will be 4-0, and very few 4-0 teams fail to make the playoffs.  Go tell that to fans of the Arizona Cardinals.  The Saints could be on the verge of pulling away from the pack in the NFC South, while Miami is looking at a rough road until their bye week on November 3.  Their schedule after this game finds the Dolphins playing Baltimore, New England, and Cincinnati in October.  If Miami loses this game, they could easily be 4-4 at the halfway mark.

 

San Diego vs. Dallas

The Chargers have looked good in their losses to Houston and Tennessee, but they have been impressive losers in the past and not turn things around.  This game is a must-win for San Diego.  A Dallas win could open a two-game lead for the Cowboys in what now looks like one of the weakest divisions in the NFL.

 

St. Louis vs. San Francisco

Could the 49ers fall to 1-3 after the first quarter of the season?  It can happen, and if it does, where will that place Colin Kaepernick, and what will that say about Jim Harbaugh?  Now, if Alex Smith leads Kansas City to another victory to move the Chiefs to 4-0, and the Niners fall to 1-3, more than one football protagonist will start second-guessing Harbaugh’s decision to dump Smith.  Kaepernick is now 6-4 as the 49ers starter, while Smith is 8-2-1 in the past two years as a starter.

 

St. Louis won this game in overtime last year and later forced a tie at Candlestick Park.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

102.5

105.0

102.6

New York Giants

96.6

95.7

95.1

Washington Redskins

95.3

94.7

94.6

Philadelphia Eagles

94.3

95.9

94.1

 

 

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

106.3

104.9

105.6

Chicago Bears

103.7

104.1

103.6

Detroit Lions

100.2

101.9

99.8

Minnesota Vikings

97.1

95.5

95.9

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

104.8

106.6

105.2

Atlanta Falcons

102.6

103.7

101.9

Carolina Panthers

100.5

100.2

100.7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

97.0

95.6

96.9

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Seattle Seahawks

109.0

109.4

109.6

San Francisco 49ers

103.0

102.2

103.1

St. Louis Rams

96.5

97.5

95.8

Arizona Cardinals

93.5

96.0

93.4

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

106.7

102.4

107.1

Miami Dolphins

100.8

102.1

101.8

New York Jets

97.8

95.2

98.3

Buffalo Bills

95.9

94.0

95.9

 

 

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Baltimore Ravens

104.1

103.5

103.9

Cincinnati Bengals

103.5

103.7

103.8

Cleveland Browns

96.3

96.4

96.7

Pittsburgh Steelers

95.6

94.5

94.7

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

102.8

102.0

103.2

Houston Texans

102.1

101.2

102.0

Tennessee Titans

100.0

99.7

100.8

Jacksonville Jaguars

88.1

87.3

87.9

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.9

112.0

111.5

Kansas City Chiefs

100.1

103.9

101.0

San Diego Chargers

98.9

100.1

99.8

Oakland Raiders

93.5

93.1

93.7

 

This Week’s Games

   

 

 

 

Week Number:

4

 

 

 

Date of Games:

September 26-30

 

 

 

Vegas Line As Of:

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Atlanta New England

-1.1

4.3

-2.2

Buffalo Baltimore

-5.7

-7.0

-5.5

Cleveland Cincinnati

-5.2

-5.3

-5.1

Denver Philadelphia

19.6

19.1

20.4

Detroit Chicago

-1.0

0.3

-1.3

Houston Seattle

-3.9

-5.2

-4.6

Jacksonville Indianapolis

-12.2

-12.2

-12.8

Kansas City N Y Giants

6.5

11.2

8.9

Minnesota (@ London) Pittsburgh

1.5

1.0

1.2

New Orleans Miami

7.0

7.5

6.4

Oakland Washington

1.7

1.9

2.6

San Diego Dallas

-0.6

-1.9

0.2

St. Louis San Francisco

-3.5

-1.7

-4.3

Tampa Bay Arizona

7.5

3.6

7.5

Tennessee N Y Jets

5.2

7.5

5.5

 

September 24, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–September 26-28, 2013

Interesting Games For Week 5

 

Thursday Night:

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech

Usually when a spread option team that relies on the veer as its primary weapon breaks in a new starting quarterback, its offense suffers and takes several games to get in synch.  Vad Lee is not your typical new starter, as he receive a lot of playing time last year in Coach Paul Johnson’s option attack.  With Lee as the chief engineer, Tech’s offensive production has looked much like that of Oklahoma in the Barry Switzer days.  The Jackets average 345 rushing yards per game at a 5.7 yard per attempt clip, and they gain an average of 10.7 yards per passing attempt.  These are numbers of an offense that can score on anybody.  Now, add to that a much improved defense that yields just 275 yards per game, and you have a key contender in the Coastal Division of the ACC.

Virginia Tech has been quite the disappointment so far, even though the Hokies are 3-1 like they were expected to be after four games.  This is not the program it was two years ago, and the Va. Tech offense is in bad need of a tune-up.  The defense is still credible, but it will need an effort much like the 2009 defense if the Hokies are to return to Blacksburg with a 4-1 record.

Saturday

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

The Crimson Tide were as flat as Western Nebraska last week, as they slept walked through the Colorado St. game.  Ole Miss had an extra week to prepare for this game after the mild upset at Texas.

Last year, Ole Miss looked like they belonged in this game, even though Alabama won 33-14.  The Rebel defense limited ‘Bama’s production, but Alabama stopped the Rebel offense.  This year, we do not believe The Crimson Tide can stop the Ole Miss attack, because there are too many weapons.  Ole Miss will not put up 42 points like Johnny Football and his machine did two weeks ago, but then again, the Rebels will hold Alabama well below 49.

We may be totally off base here, but we see this one that will not be decided until the waning minutes of the game.  Ole Miss has a shot at the upset that will put them back on the national title contention map.  Check below to see how the PiRate Ratings call this game.  Our ratings do not always reflect how we feel about a game, since the ratings are chiefly mechanical and not influenced by our personal beliefs.

Washington St. vs. Stanford (game to be played in Seattle)

Stanford looked like a Rose Bowl team for two quarters, a Holiday Bowl team for one quarter, and Cal for one quarter last week against Arizona St.,  The Cardinal have yet to play 60 minutes of quality football.  Can they play 30 minutes of quality football, 15 minutes of okay football, and 15 minutes of mediocre football and pull out a Pac-12 win this week against an up and coming Cougar team?

This game will be played in Seattle, not Pullman, so Washington St. will not enjoy its usual home field advantage.  Still, the much-improved Cougars will play tough for four quarters.  This one could get interesting if WSU can keep it close in the first half.  The Pac-12 North rates a little ahead of the SEC West this week, so this game should definitely be on your watch list.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M

These former Southwest Conference rivals square off in an important game in Fayetteville, and while it may not have division title implications, it is a key game for both teams.  How will the Aggies stop the Wisconsin-style ground game that Bret Bielema has brought to the SEC?  If Johnny Manziel doesn’t have the football, he cannot do his magic.  Had Arkansas beaten Rutgers last week, this game would have meant a lot more, but it still means a lot in the SEC.  An Arkansas victory gives the Razorbacks a 90-95% probability of getting bowl eligible this year.  An A&M victory keeps the Aggies in contention for a Sugar Bowl or other BCS Bowl bid.

Georgia vs. LSU

This one is our top game of the week.  The winner stays in contention for a National Championship.  The loser might be looking at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl for its ceiling.

The two quarterbacks in this game are as talented as the lower-tiered NFL starters.  Georgia’s Aaron Murray may be the better college QB, but LSU’s Zach Mettenberger may eventually be the better NFL QB.  New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has been an outstanding teacher, and the LSU passing game looks like the equal of its SEC brethren.  Add one of the top rushing attacks, and you have an offense that will light up the scoreboard.

Georgia is very similar to the Tigers, except the Bulldogs throw the ball a little better and are not as strong running the ball.

Both teams have room to improve on the defensive side, and that is what makes this game so interesting.  Which defense will step up and come up with enough big plays to hold the other team to about 30 points?  That team will be the winner.

Washington vs. Arizona

One of these teams will be an impressive 4-0 on Sunday morning.  Seldom since the 1970’s has there been a game between two major conference teams where both foes average better than 300 rushing yards per game.  This one does.  Of course, UW also averages more than 300 passing yards per game and looks like a team capable of beating Stanford and becoming the key competition to Oregon in the Pac-12 North.

Arizona is more one-dimensional in its zone-read offense.  The passing game will probably not beat a quality opponent if the running game is slowed.

What makes us think UW has the potential to compete with Oregon and Stanford is our belief that the Huskies still have room to improve on offense from A+ to A++.  Once All-American tight end Austin Seferrian-Jenkins is fully back to form after beginning the season under suspension, then the Huskies’ offense might be as potent as the Ducks.

If Arizona pulls off the upset, then the Wildcats will soar into the top 10 in the power ratings.

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma

The Irish now must consider this like a key conference game if they are to remain in contention for a BCS Bowl invitation.  They will get that invitation at 10-2, but 9-3 could find Notre Dame looking at a minor bowl.  With Arizona St., USC, and Stanford remaining on the schedule along with tricky games against Navy and at Pittsburgh, The Fighting Irish have a tough mountain to climb to get to 10-2.  A loss here Saturday leaves them no room for error the rest of the way.

Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops has moaned about not getting enough respect.  Wins over Louisiana-Monroe, West Virginia, and Tulsa are not respect-earning victories.  TCU, Texas, and Kansas St. are no longer respect-earning victories.  That leaves Oklahoma St. and this game for OU to get the esteem they believe they should have.  If the Sooners drop what to OU fans is a must-win game, then Stoops will feel his seat warming up.

Ohio St. vs. Wisconsin

The interest in this game is two-fold.  First, the winner of this game is more than likely your Leaders’ Division Champion.  With Penn St. ineligible, and the rest of the division substandard to these two rivals, the winner of this game will have to lose twice in the league to fall below the loser.

The secondary interest in this game is the Buckeye quarterback situation.  Does Coach Urban Meyer go with Heisman Trophy contender Braxton Miller, or does he stick with the rifle-armed Kenny Guiton who merely guides OSU on touchdown drives more like the Buckeyes hail from Eugene, Oregon.

He won’t ask our opinion, but if it were up to us, we would stick with the hot hand.  It is similar to when Wally Pipp was injured for the 1925 Yankees.  The backup, some kid named Gehrig, immediately proved that he was the best first baseman in the Majors.  Guiton looks like the best passer in the Big Ten and one of the top in the nation.  Putting Miller in as starter could only damage the Buckeye offense.  He will be rusty, and OSU can ill-afford to stumble for two or three series while hoping he gets untracked.  Miller can easily be inserted into the game for a series here and there after Guiton has worked his magic once again.

It is our belief that the only way Ohio St. can lose this game is if Miller starts and is off his game.  A typical showing from Guiton makes the Buckeyes too strong for any Big Ten opponent.

This Week’s PiRate Power Rankings

PiRate Regular

1

Oregon

133.9

2

Alabama

130.5

3

Stanford

124.9

4

Ole Miss

124.9

5

Oklahoma St.

122.6

6

Ohio St.

122.2

7

Texas A&M

122.1

8

Baylor

121.5

9

L S U

121.3

10

Georgia

121.2

11

Washington

120.4

12

South Carolina

119.9

13

Arizona

119.5

14

Florida St.

119.0

15

Louisville

118.3

16

U C L A

118.3

17

Florida

118.0

18

Texas

116.5

19

Clemson

116.4

20

Missouri

116.2

21

Wisconsin

116.2

22

Arizona St.

116.2

23

Notre Dame

115.7

24

Oklahoma

115.6

25

Miami

115.4

26

Georgia Tech

114.7

27

Michigan St.

114.6

28

Oregon St.

113.4

29

Northwestern

113.3

30

Michigan

113.1

31

T C U

113.1

32

U S C

112.5

33

Nebraska

112.0

34

Mississippi St.

111.1

35

Penn St.

110.6

36

Kansas St.

108.9

37

Virginia Tech

108.8

38

Texas Tech

108.6

39

B Y U

108.5

40

Vanderbilt

107.3

41

Auburn

107.1

42

North Carolina

106.7

43

Washington St.

106.2

44

Utah

105.3

45

Cincinnati

104.7

46

Tennessee

104.5

47

Syracuse

104.2

48

Minnesota

103.8

49

Utah St.

103.8

50

Central Florida

103.4

51

Iowa

103.3

52

Maryland

103.0

53

Fresno St.

103.0

54

Indiana

102.9

55

Boise St.

100.8

56

Toledo

100.6

57

Arkansas

100.2

58

Boston College

100.2

59

Pittsburgh

99.9

60

Bowling Green

99.9

61

Illinois

99.8

62

Rutgers

99.5

63

San Jose St.

99.4

64

Kentucky

99.0

65

Marshall

98.9

66

Ball St.

98.9

67

West Virginia

98.4

68

East Carolina

98.2

69

Iowa St.

98.1

70

Northern Illinois

97.8

71

Navy

97.6

72

Duke

97.1

73

North Carolina St.

97.0

74

Wake Forest

97.0

75

California

96.3

76

Rice

96.0

77

Purdue

95.7

78

Virginia

94.1

79

Louisiana–Monroe

94.1

80

San Diego St.

93.8

81

Wyoming

93.6

82

North Texas

93.6

83

Tulsa

93.6

84

Colorado St.

93.5

85

S M U

93.3

86

Houston

93.0

87

Kansas

92.9

88

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.6

89

Ohio

92.1

90

Colorado

92.0

91

Arkansas St.

91.4

92

Connecticut

90.8

93

U T S A

90.0

94

Memphis

89.9

95

Western Kentucky

89.9

96

Buffalo

89.7

97

South Florida

89.3

98

Nevada

89.1

99

U A B

87.6

100

Kent St.

87.3

101

Middle Tennessee

87.1

102

Temple

86.7

103

U N L V

85.6

104

Florida Atlantic

85.2

105

U T E P

83.9

106

Army

83.8

107

Hawaii

83.4

108

Troy

83.2

109

Louisiana Tech

83.2

110

Akron

83.1

111

South Alabama

82.9

112

Tulane

82.0

113

Texas St.

81.7

114

Central Michigan

81.6

115

Southern Miss.

81.3

116

Western Michigan

79.9

117

New Mexico

79.3

118

Miami (O)

78.9

119

Eastern Michigan

77.7

120

Air Force

75.7

121

New Mexico St.

74.0

122

Massachusetts

72.6

123

Idaho

69.1

124

Florida Int’l

66.0

125

Georgia St.

60.2

 

PiRate Mean

1

Oregon

129.8

2

Alabama

123.9

3

Florida St.

122.7

4

L S U

120.5

5

Ole Miss

120.5

6

Ohio St.

119.5

7

Georgia

118.7

8

Texas A&M

118.1

9

South Carolina

117.9

10

Arizona St.

117.3

11

Wisconsin

117.2

12

Louisville

116.9

13

Miami

116.5

14

Washington

116.1

15

Clemson

116.0

16

Stanford

116.0

17

Arizona

114.6

18

Michigan St.

114.5

19

Georgia Tech

114.3

20

Florida

114.0

21

Penn St.

113.8

22

Missouri

113.5

23

Baylor

112.9

24

Oklahoma St.

112.6

25

Notre Dame

112.4

26

U C L A

112.2

27

Oklahoma

111.4

28

Michigan

111.2

29

Northwestern

110.9

30

U S C

109.8

31

Maryland

109.5

32

Virginia Tech

109.2

33

North Carolina

109.0

34

Nebraska

109.0

35

Mississippi St.

107.8

36

T C U

107.4

37

Texas

107.0

38

Auburn

106.9

39

Texas Tech

106.8

40

Washington St.

106.7

41

B Y U

106.6

42

Indiana

106.4

43

Arkansas

106.2

44

Central Florida

105.6

45

Cincinnati

105.2

46

Utah

105.0

47

Vanderbilt

104.9

48

Minnesota

103.8

49

Illinois

103.7

50

Tennessee

103.7

51

Rutgers

103.4

52

Marshall

103.2

53

Oregon St.

102.9

54

Houston

102.7

55

North Carolina St.

102.7

56

Iowa

102.7

57

Ball St.

102.5

58

Syracuse

102.3

59

Fresno St.

101.5

60

Toledo

101.5

61

Kansas St.

101.0

62

Utah St.

100.9

63

Wake Forest

100.8

64

East Carolina

100.3

65

Rice

100.1

66

Navy

99.8

67

Bowling Green

99.7

68

Kentucky

99.6

69

Northern Illinois

99.0

70

Boston College

98.5

71

Pittsburgh

98.1

72

Virginia

97.5

73

Colorado

97.5

74

Duke

97.5

75

S M U

97.0

76

Memphis

97.0

77

Ohio

95.6

78

Boise St.

95.4

79

North Texas

95.4

80

Wyoming

95.3

81

San Jose St.

94.5

82

Louisiana–Monroe

94.2

83

Colorado St.

93.0

84

Middle Tennessee

92.9

85

Nevada

92.4

86

Purdue

92.3

87

U T S A

92.1

88

California

91.8

89

Western Kentucky

91.5

90

West Virginia

91.4

91

Tulsa

90.6

92

Army

90.6

93

Louisiana–Lafayette

90.3

94

Kent St.

90.3

95

Kansas

90.2

96

San Diego St.

90.1

97

Buffalo

90.0

98

U A B

89.7

99

U T E P

89.5

100

Texas St.

88.3

101

U N L V

88.2

102

Iowa St.

88.0

103

Akron

87.7

104

South Alabama

87.4

105

Tulane

87.4

106

Arkansas St.

86.9

107

Connecticut

86.2

108

New Mexico

85.5

109

Temple

85.1

110

Florida Atlantic

84.8

111

Louisiana Tech

84.7

112

Troy

83.9

113

Central Michigan

83.5

114

Hawaii

83.5

115

Miami (O)

82.8

116

South Florida

82.3

117

Eastern Michigan

81.9

118

Massachusetts

81.3

119

Southern Miss.

80.7

120

Western Michigan

80.7

121

Air Force

79.9

122

New Mexico St.

78.7

123

Idaho

77.4

124

Georgia St.

69.4

125

Florida Int’l

68.2

PiRate Bias

1

Oregon

135.5

2

Alabama

131.3

3

Ole Miss

125.2

4

Stanford

123.8

5

Oklahoma St.

123.4

6

Ohio St.

122.5

7

Baylor

122.5

8

L S U

122.3

9

Texas A&M

122.2

10

Washington

121.4

11

Georgia

121.4

12

Florida St.

120.9

13

Louisville

120.3

14

South Carolina

119.6

15

Arizona

118.3

16

Clemson

117.3

17

U C L A

117.2

18

Florida

116.5

19

Wisconsin

116.4

20

Arizona St.

116.0

21

Miami

115.6

22

Georgia Tech

115.6

23

Oklahoma

115.6

24

Missouri

115.5

25

Texas

115.2

26

Northwestern

113.8

27

Notre Dame

113.7

28

T C U

113.3

29

Michigan St.

112.7

30

Michigan

112.3

31

U S C

112.3

32

Mississippi St.

111.3

33

Oregon St.

111.3

34

Nebraska

110.3

35

Penn St.

110.2

36

B Y U

108.9

37

Texas Tech

108.5

38

Virginia Tech

108.2

39

Kansas St.

107.5

40

North Carolina

107.3

41

Washington St.

107.2

42

Vanderbilt

106.5

43

Auburn

106.2

44

Utah St.

105.8

45

Maryland

105.5

46

Utah

105.5

47

Cincinnati

105.1

48

Central Florida

104.3

49

Iowa

104.2

50

Fresno St.

103.7

51

Syracuse

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.3

53

Minnesota

103.2

54

Indiana

102.8

55

Boise St.

101.8

56

Toledo

101.7

57

Bowling Green

101.1

58

Marshall

101.0

59

Boston College

100.5

60

Illinois

100.4

61

Ball St.

100.2

62

Rutgers

100.0

63

East Carolina

99.5

64

San Jose St.

99.5

65

Pittsburgh

99.3

66

Arkansas

98.8

67

Northern Illinois

98.5

68

North Carolina St.

98.0

69

Navy

97.7

70

Kentucky

97.5

71

Rice

97.1

72

Wake Forest

97.1

73

West Virginia

96.5

74

Duke

96.2

75

Iowa St.

96.2

76

Wyoming

96.0

77

Houston

94.5

78

Virginia

94.4

79

California

94.3

80

San Diego St.

94.3

81

Colorado St.

94.2

82

North Texas

94.1

83

Louisiana–Monroe

93.5

84

Ohio

93.4

85

Purdue

93.0

86

S M U

92.7

87

Louisiana–Lafayette

92.7

88

Tulsa

92.6

89

Kansas

91.6

90

Connecticut

91.3

91

Memphis

90.7

92

Arkansas St.

90.7

93

U T S A

90.3

94

Western Kentucky

90.3

95

Colorado

90.1

96

Buffalo

89.8

97

Nevada

89.4

98

South Florida

88.0

99

U A B

87.8

100

Kent St.

87.6

101

Middle Tennessee

87.5

102

U N L V

86.0

103

Temple

85.4

104

Florida Atlantic

85.3

105

Army

84.9

106

U T E P

84.0

107

Troy

83.9

108

South Alabama

83.9

109

Hawaii

83.6

110

Akron

83.5

111

Louisiana Tech

82.6

112

Tulane

81.9

113

Texas St.

81.3

114

Southern Miss.

81.3

115

Western Michigan

80.9

116

Central Michigan

80.7

117

New Mexico

79.5

118

Miami (O)

77.6

119

Eastern Michigan

77.1

120

Air Force

75.5

121

New Mexico St.

73.9

122

Massachusetts

72.8

123

Idaho

68.5

124

Florida Int’l

65.6

125

Georgia St.

61.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

0-0

4-0

118.3

116.9

120.3

Cincinnati

0-0

3-1

104.7

105.2

105.1

Central Florida

0-0

3-0

103.4

105.6

104.3

Rutgers

0-0

3-1

99.5

103.4

100.0

S M U

0-0

1-2

93.3

97.0

92.7

Houston

1-0

3-0

93.0

102.7

94.5

Connecticut

0-0

0-3

90.8

86.2

91.3

Memphis

0-0

1-2

89.9

97.0

90.7

South Florida

0-0

0-3

89.3

82.3

88.0

Temple

0-1

0-3

86.7

85.1

85.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.1

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

1-0

3-0

119.0

122.7

120.9

Clemson

1-0

3-0

116.4

116.0

117.3

Syracuse

0-0

2-2

104.2

102.3

103.6

Maryland

0-0

4-0

103.0

109.5

105.5

Boston College

1-0

2-1

100.2

98.5

100.5

North Carolina St.

0-1

2-1

97.0

102.7

98.0

Wake Forest

0-1

2-2

97.0

100.8

97.1

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

0-0

3-0

115.4

116.5

115.6

Georgia Tech

2-0

3-0

114.7

114.3

115.6

Virginia Tech

0-0

3-1

108.8

109.2

108.2

North Carolina

0-1

1-2

106.7

109.0

107.3

Pittsburgh

1-1

2-1

99.9

98.1

99.3

Duke

0-2

2-2

97.1

97.5

96.2

Virginia

0-0

2-1

94.1

97.5

94.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.8

105.7

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oklahoma St.

0-0

3-0

122.6

112.6

123.4

Baylor

0-0

3-0

121.5

112.9

122.5

Texas

1-0

2-2

116.5

107.0

115.2

Oklahoma

1-0

3-0

115.6

111.4

115.6

T C U

0-1

1-2

113.1

107.4

113.3

Kansas St.

0-1

2-2

108.9

101.0

107.5

Texas Tech

1-0

4-0

108.6

106.8

108.5

West Virginia

0-1

2-2

98.4

91.4

96.5

Iowa St.

0-0

0-2

98.1

88.0

96.2

Kansas

0-0

2-1

92.9

90.2

91.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.6

102.9

109.0

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

0-0

4-0

122.2

119.5

122.5

Wisconsin

1-0

3-1

116.2

117.2

116.4

Penn St.

0-0

3-1

110.6

113.8

110.2

Indiana

0-0

2-2

102.9

106.4

102.8

Illinois

0-0

2-1

99.8

103.7

100.4

Purdue

0-1

1-3

95.7

92.3

93.0

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

0-0

3-1

114.6

114.5

112.7

Northwestern

0-0

4-0

113.3

110.9

113.8

Michigan

0-0

4-0

113.1

111.2

112.3

Nebraska

0-0

3-1

112.0

109.0

110.3

Minnesota

0-0

4-0

103.8

103.8

103.2

Iowa

0-0

3-1

103.3

102.7

104.2

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

109.0

108.8

108.5

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Marshall

0-0

2-2

98.9

103.2

101.0

East Carolina

1-0

2-1

98.2

100.3

99.5

U A B

0-0

1-2

87.6

89.7

87.8

Middle Tennessee

1-0

3-1

87.1

92.9

87.5

Florida Atlantic

0-2

1-3

85.2

84.8

85.3

Southern Miss.

0-0

0-3

81.3

80.7

81.3

Florida Int’l

0-0

0-4

66.0

68.2

65.6

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

0-0

1-2

96.0

100.1

97.1

North Texas

0-0

2-2

93.6

95.4

94.1

Tulsa

0-0

1-2

93.6

90.6

92.6

U T S A

1-0

2-2

90.0

92.1

90.3

U T E P

0-1

1-2

83.9

89.5

84.0

Louisiana Tech

0-1

1-3

83.2

84.7

82.6

Tulane

1-0

2-2

82.0

87.4

81.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.6

90.0

87.9

     

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Notre Dame

 

3-1

115.7

112.4

113.7

B Y U

 

1-2

108.5

106.6

108.9

Navy

 

2-0

97.6

99.8

97.7

Army

 

1-3

83.8

90.6

84.9

New Mexico St.

 

0-4

74.0

78.7

73.9

Idaho

 

0-4

69.1

77.4

68.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

91.5

94.3

91.3

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

1-0

3-1

99.9

99.7

101.1

Ohio

0-0

3-1

92.1

95.6

93.4

Buffalo

0-0

1-2

89.7

90.0

89.8

Kent St.

0-1

1-3

87.3

90.3

87.6

Akron

0-0

1-3

83.1

87.7

83.5

Miami (O)

0-0

0-3

78.9

82.8

77.6

Massachusetts

0-0

0-4

72.6

81.3

72.8

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Toledo

1-0

2-2

100.6

101.5

101.7

Ball St.

1-0

3-1

98.9

102.5

100.2

Northern Illinois

0-0

3-0

97.8

99.0

98.5

Central Michigan

0-1

1-3

81.6

83.5

80.7

Western Michigan

0-0

0-4

79.9

80.7

80.9

Eastern Michigan

0-1

1-3

77.7

81.9

77.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.7

90.5

88.1

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Utah St.

1-0

2-2

103.8

100.9

105.8

Boise St.

1-1

2-2

100.8

95.4

101.8

Wyoming

1-0

3-1

93.6

95.3

96.0

Colorado St.

0-0

1-3

93.5

93.0

94.2

New Mexico

0-0

1-2

79.3

85.5

79.5

Air Force

0-3

1-3

75.7

79.9

75.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

1-0

3-0

103.0

101.5

103.7

San Jose St.

0-0

1-2

99.4

94.5

99.5

San Diego St.

0-0

0-3

93.8

90.1

94.3

Nevada

1-0

2-2

89.1

92.4

89.4

U N L V

0-0

2-2

85.6

88.2

86.0

Hawaii

0-1

0-3

83.4

83.5

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

91.8

91.7

92.4

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

0-0

3-0

133.9

129.8

135.5

Stanford

1-0

3-0

124.9

116.0

123.8

Washington

0-0

3-0

120.4

116.1

121.4

Oregon St.

1-0

3-1

113.4

102.9

111.3

Washington St.

1-0

3-1

106.2

106.7

107.2

California

0-0

1-2

96.3

91.8

94.3

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona

0-0

3-0

119.5

114.6

118.3

U C L A

0-0

3-0

118.3

112.2

117.2

Arizona St.

0-1

2-1

116.2

117.3

116.0

U S C

0-1

3-1

112.5

109.8

112.3

Utah

0-1

3-1

105.3

105.0

105.5

Colorado

0-0

2-0

92.0

97.5

90.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.2

110.0

112.7

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

1-0

2-1

121.2

118.7

121.4

South Carolina

1-1

2-1

119.9

117.9

119.6

Florida

1-0

2-1

118.0

114.0

116.5

Missouri

0-0

3-0

116.2

113.5

115.5

Vanderbilt

0-2

2-2

107.3

104.9

106.5

Tennessee

0-1

2-2

104.5

103.7

103.3

Kentucky

0-0

1-2

99.0

99.6

97.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

1-0

3-0

130.5

123.9

131.3

Ole Miss

1-0

3-0

124.9

120.5

125.2

Texas A&M

0-1

3-1

122.1

118.1

122.2

L S U

1-0

4-0

121.3

120.5

122.3

Mississippi St.

0-1

2-2

111.1

107.8

111.3

Auburn

1-1

3-1

107.1

106.9

106.2

Arkansas

0-0

3-1

100.2

106.2

98.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.5

112.6

114.1

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

0-0

2-2

94.1

94.2

93.5

Louisiana–Monroe

0-0

2-2

92.6

90.3

92.7

Arkansas St.

1-0

2-2

91.4

86.9

90.7

Western Kentucky

0-1

2-2

89.9

91.5

90.3

Troy

0-1

2-2

83.2

83.9

83.9

South Alabama

1-0

2-1

82.9

87.4

83.9

Texas St.

0-0

2-1

81.7

88.3

81.3

Georgia St.

0-0

0-4

60.2

69.4

61.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.5

86.5

84.7

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Southern

 

2-1

85.9

88.3

93.0

Old Dominion

 

2-2

81.0

81.8

88.0

Appalachian St.

 

1-2

79.1

77.8

86.2

Charlotte

 

2-2

57.0

61.6

64.1

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Date:

September 26-28, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech Virginia Tech

8.9

8.1

10.4

Tulsa Iowa St.

-1.5

5.6

-0.6

B Y U Middle Tennessee

25.4

17.7

25.4

San Jose St. Utah St.

-1.4

-3.4

-3.3

Alabama Ole Miss

8.6

6.4

9.1

Arizona St. U S C

6.7

10.5

6.7

Arkansas Texas A&M

-18.9

-8.9

-20.4

Ball St. Toledo

0.8

3.5

1.0

Boise St. Southern Miss.

23.0

18.2

24.0

Boston College Florida St.

-15.8

-21.2

-17.4

Bowling Green Akron

19.3

14.5

20.1

Buffalo Connecticut

1.4

6.3

1.0

Central Florida South Carolina

-13.5

-9.3

-12.3

Clemson Wake Forest

22.4

18.2

23.2

Colorado St. U T E P

12.6

6.5

13.2

Duke Troy

16.9

16.6

15.3

Georgia L S U

2.9

1.2

2.1

Hawaii Fresno St.

-15.6

-14.0

-16.1

Idaho Temple

-14.6

-4.7

-13.9

Illinois Miami (O)

23.9

23.9

25.8

Kentucky Florida

-16.0

-11.4

-16.0

Louisiana Tech (a) Army

-0.6

-5.9

-2.3

Minnesota Iowa

3.5

4.1

2.0

Missouri Arkansas St.

27.8

29.6

27.8

Nevada Air Force

16.4

15.5

16.9

New Mexico U N L V

-3.8

-0.2

-4.0

New Mexico St. San Diego St.

-17.3

-8.9

-17.9

North Carolina East Carolina

11.5

11.7

10.8

North Carolina St. Central Michigan

18.4

22.2

20.3

Notre Dame Oklahoma

3.1

4.0

1.1

Ohio St. Wisconsin

9.0

5.3

9.1

Oregon California

40.6

41.0

44.2

Oregon St. Colorado

24.4

8.4

24.2

Pittsburgh Virginia

8.8

3.6

7.9

Purdue Northern Illinois

0.9

-3.7

-2.5

Rice Florida Atlantic

13.3

17.8

14.3

South Florida Miami (Fl)

-24.1

-32.2

-25.6

T C U S M U

21.8

12.4

22.6

Tennessee South Alabama

24.6

19.3

22.4

Texas St. Wyoming

-9.4

-4.5

-12.2

U T S A Houston

-1.0

-8.6

-2.2

UL-Monroe Tulane

13.1

5.4

13.3

Vanderbilt U A B

22.2

17.7

21.2

Washington Arizona

3.9

4.5

6.1

Washington St. (b) Stanford

-16.7

-7.3

-14.6

West Virginia Oklahoma St.

-21.2

-18.2

-23.9

Western Kentucky Navy

-5.2

-5.8

-4.9

Western Michigan Kent St.

-4.9

-7.1

-4.2

   

 

 

 

(a) Neutral Site Game at Dallas

 

 

 

(b) Game Played in Seattle

 

 

 

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Wyoming

vs.

Washington St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Arizona St.

Famous Idaho Potato

(U T S A)

vs.

Toledo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Rice

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

(Arkansas St.)

vs.

East Carolina

Hawai’i

(Ohio)

vs.

North Texas

Little Caesars Pizza

Bowling Green

vs.

Illinois

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

(Oregon St.)

Military Bowl

Pittsburgh

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Nebraska

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

U S C

vs.

B Y U

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

(Notre Dame)

Belk

Houston

vs.

North Carolina

Russell Athletic

Central Florida

vs.

Georgia Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Northwestern

Armed Forces

San Jose St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

North Carolina St.

vs.

Florida

Alamo

Baylor

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

Washington

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

(Ball St.)

vs.

Virginia Tech

Sun

Maryland

vs.

Arizona

Liberty

Mississippi St.

vs.

Tulsa

Chick-fil-A

Miami

vs.

South Carolina

Heart Of Dallas

Middle Tennessee

vs.

Iowa

Gator

Michigan St.

vs.

Missouri

Outback

Texas A&M

vs.

Michigan

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Georgia

Rose

Ohio St.

vs.

U C L A

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

L S U

vs.

Clemson

Cotton

Ole Miss

vs.

Oklahoma

Orange

Florida St.

vs.

Louisville

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Auburn

GoDaddy.com

Texas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Oregon

vs.

Alabama

Coming Up

Wednesday—New NFL PiRate Ratings and Spreads for Week 4

Thursday—PiRate Picks for College Week 5 & NFL Week 4

 

*** Thank You For Your Patronage ***

 

 

October 25, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 8–October 30-31, 2011

The PiRate Ratings For All League Champions Since 1960

The PiRate Ratings were not born until 1969, and then they only rated college football teams.  We began rating college basketball teams in the mid-1970’s and quit rating them after our founder stopped writing for newspaper publication in 1982.

 

In 1979, we began compiling NFL football ratings, but we have reversed engineered our formulas beginning with the 1960 season when the American Football League began.  At some point in the future, we may go back farther to the earlier days of the NFL and even the AAFC, but we do not have access to the necessary data as of yet.

 

Here is a list of the league champions from 1960 to 2010. 

 

Note: The PiRate Ratings were adjusted after the 2011 Super Bowl, and the ratings shown are the adjusted ratings in order to compare current teams to the historic ratings.  Remember, the PiRate Ratings are based on 100 being average.  A rating of 110 means the team is 10 points better than the average team (what would be considered an 8-8 team that scores 22.5 points per game and gives up 22.5 points per game to an average schedule of like 8-8 teams {6-6 in 12-game schedule and 7-7 in 14-game schedule}).

 

Year NFL/NFC

Rating

AFL/AFC

Rating

1960 Philadelphia

108.2

Houston

96.7

1961 Green Bay

111.1

Houston

101.4

1962 Green Bay

113.8

Dallas

100.6

1963 Chicago

106.1

San Diego

104.4

1964 Cleveland

107.5

Buffalo

103.1

1965 Green Bay

109.0

Buffalo

100.7

1966 Green Bay

112.6

Kansas City

102.1

1967 Green Bay

110.3

Oakland

105.2

1968 Baltimore

111.1

New York Jets

104.6

1969 Minnesota

110.8

Kansas City

101.6

1970 Dallas

105.4

Baltimore

105.8

1971 Dallas

109.7

Miami

104.3

1972 Washington

108.5

Miami

109.5

1973 Minnesota

107.2

Miami

112.0

1974 Minnesota

107.1

Pittsburgh

109.3

1975 Dallas

108.2

Pittsburgh

110.1

1976 Minnesota

109.4

Oakland

111.6

1977 Dallas

110.3

Denver

106.1

1978 Dallas

109.7

Pittsburgh

109.9

1979 Los Angeles

103.8

Pittsburgh

110.1

1980 Philadelphia

107.8

Oakland

108.9

1981 San Francisco

110.2

Cincinnati

106.9

1982 Washington

109.4

Miami

107.8

1983 Washington

112.1

Los Angeles

110.5

1984 San Francisco

114.5

Miami

111.6

1985 Chicago

116.2

New England

105.6

1986 New York Giants

112.3

Denver

106.2

1987 Washington

105.2

Denver

104.5

1988 San Francisco

104.7

Cincinnati

105.8

1989 San Francisco

113.9

Denver

103.6

1990 New York Giants

108.7

Buffalo

108.6

1991 Washington

112.6

Buffalo

109.8

1992 Dallas

111.7

Buffalo

105.3

1993 Dallas

109.8

Buffalo

108.3

1994 San Francisco

110.1

San Diego

106.2

1995 Dallas

107.8

Pittsburgh

105.8

1996 Green Bay

110.5

New England

104.4

1997 Green Bay

109.6

Denver

109.2

1998 Atlanta

111.1

Denver

113.5

1999 St. Louis

110.4

Tennessee

108.6

2000 New York Giants

108.6

Baltimore

109.1

2001 St. Louis

110.6

New England

106.3

2002 Tampa Bay

108.2

Oakland

106.0

2003 Carolina

105.9

New England

112.4

2004 Philadelphia

108.5

New England

112.6

2005 Seattle

108.7

Pittsburgh

107.9

2006 Chicago

109.1

Indianapolis

108.7

2007 New York Giants

107.3

New England

115.7

2008 Arizona

103.1

Pittsburgh

110.1

2009 New Orleans

109.6

Indianapolis

110.1

2010 Green Bay

105.7

Pittsburgh

109.1

 

 

Back To The Present

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings.

 

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Dallas Cowboys

103.3

103.0

102.6

0.5

3

3

0

149

128

New York Giants

102.5

100.3

103.1

1.5

4

2

0

154

147

Philadelphia Eagles

101.7

101.3

101.6

2

2

4

0

145

145

Washington Redskins

93.7

95.5

95.0

3.5

3

3

0

116

116

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Green Bay Packers

110.5

110.4

108.8

2.5

7

0

0

230

141

Chicago Bears

103.9

103.3

104.7

3

4

3

0

170

150

Detroit Lions

101.2

103.4

104.3

2

5

2

0

194

137

Minnesota Vikings

96.5

96.9

95.5

4

1

6

0

148

178

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New Orleans Saints

109.8

107.1

106.1

3.5

5

2

0

239

158

Atlanta Falcons

103.9

102.6

104.7

2.5

4

3

0

158

163

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

98.5

99.0

99.4

3.5

4

3

0

131

169

Carolina Panthers

95.9

95.0

97.8

2.5

2

5

0

166

183

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Francisco 49ers

104.4

106.3

104.8

3

5

1

0

167

97

Seattle Seahawks

94.1

94.9

93.4

2

2

4

0

97

128

Arizona Cardinals

91.7

91.9

94.0

2.5

1

5

0

116

153

St. Louis Rams

90.1

87.8

87.6

1.5

0

6

0

56

171

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

New England Patriots

107.6

108.9

105.7

3.5

5

1

0

185

135

New York Jets

104.3

104.3

104.9

3

4

3

0

172

152

Buffalo Bills

100.1

102.1

104.2

2.5

4

2

0

188

147

Miami Dolphins

95.0

93.8

93.5

3

0

6

0

90

146

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Baltimore Ravens

106.9

107.4

106.3

3.5

4

2

0

155

83

Pittsburgh Steelers

105.6

104.4

104.0

2.5

5

2

0

151

122

Cincinnati Bengals

97.9

100.6

100.8

1

4

2

0

137

111

Cleveland Browns

94.1

95.0

96.9

3

3

3

0

97

120

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Houston Texans

106.7

105.3

104.0

2

4

3

0

182

131

Jacksonville Jaguars

98.5

96.5

96.1

2

2

5

0

84

139

Tennessee Titans

97.1

97.0

96.0

1.5

3

3

0

112

135

Indianapolis Colts

91.7

91.4

88.1

3.5

0

7

0

111

225

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

San Diego Chargers

103.0

102.3

101.1

2.5

4

2

0

141

136

Kansas City Chiefs

99.4

97.8

98.7

1

3

3

0

105

150

Oakland Raiders

97.5

99.7

99.6

2

4

3

0

160

178

Denver Broncos

93.7

95.1

96.8

1

2

4

0

123

155

 

And here are the PiRate Ratings for this week’s games.

 

(N) denotes Neutral Site

Vegas Line and Totals as of Tuesday, October 25, 2011  4:30 PM EDT

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

TENNESSEE Indianapolis

8.9

9.1

11.4

9   

43 1/2

HOUSTON Jacksonville

10.2

10.8

9.9

9 1/2

40 1/2

CAROLINA Minnesota

1.9

0.6

4.8

3 1/2

47 1/2

New Orleans ST. LOUIS

17.7

17.3

16.5

15 1/2

47 1/2

BALTIMORE Arizona

18.7

19.0

15.8

13   

44   

NEW YORK GIANTS Miami

9.0

8.0

11.1

10   

43   

Buffalo (N) (Toronto) Washington

6.4

6.6

9.2

6   

46   

Detroit DENVER

5.0

5.8

5.0

3 1/2

44   

PITTSBURGH New England

1.0

-1.5

1.3

-3   

51   

SAN FRANCISCO Cleveland

12.8

13.8

10.4

9 1/2

38 1/2

Cincinnati SEATTLE

2.3

4.2

5.9

3   

38   

PHILADELPHIA Dallas

0.4

0.3

1.0

3 1/2

50 1/2

San Diego KANSAS CITY

2.6

3.5

1.4

3 1/2

44   

 

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