PiRate Ratings College Football For August 28

Monday, August 23, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Date:	August 28, 2021
Team	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Illinois	Nebraska	-3.8	-4.0	-3.4
UCLA	Hawaii	19.7	20.4	19.9
New Mexico St.	UTEP	-4.5	-4.7	-5.3
Fresno St.	Connecticut	20.2	21.1	26.5

FBS vs. FCS

FBS	FCS	PiRate
San Jose St.	Southern Utah	23.8

It’s called Week 0. Four FBS college football games will kick off the 2021 season. Included in the quartet of games is a Big Ten conference game with an old Big Ten coach returning to a new Big Ten school to face another coach that is sitting on a very hot seat.

On the West Coast, Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins host Hawaii, and a good showing with no injuries could set the Bruins up for a potential upset of LSU next week.

If you have followed our site so far this year, you have now seen the preseason ratings and predictions for all 130 FBS teams. Here are those ratings in full.

The PiRate Ratings for August 23

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	130.2
2	Oklahoma	128.1
3	Georgia	125.2
4	Iowa St.	124.8
5	Clemson	122.2
6	Ohio St.	121.9
7	U S C	119.4
8	Florida	118.2
9	Texas A&M	118.1
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Miami (Fla.)	116.9
12	Cincinnati	116.5
13	Auburn	116.1
14	T C U	116.0
15	Wisconsin	115.9
16	Texas	115.6
17	Indiana	115.5
18	Ole Miss	113.3
19	Arizona St.	113.1
20	Oklahoma St.	113.1
21	Penn St.	113.1
22	Iowa	112.8
23	Oregon	112.5
24	West Virginia	112.3
25	L S U	112.1
26	Washington	112.1
27	Utah	111.9
28	U C L A	110.5
29	Notre Dame	110.2
30	Mississippi St.	110.1
31	Arkansas	109.5
32	BYU	109.2
33	Louisiana	109.2
34	Coastal Carolina	108.4
35	Wake Forest	107.7
36	Kentucky	107.4
37	Maryland	107.2
38	Oregon St.	106.9
39	Missouri	106.4
40	Minnesota	106.1
41	NC State	106.1
42	Northwestern	105.8
43	Colorado	105.7
44	Liberty	105.5
45	Virginia Tech	105.3
46	Boston College	105.2
47	Michigan	104.9
48	Baylor	104.5
49	Kansas St.	104.4
50	Tennessee	104.0
51	Boise St.	103.9
52	Purdue	103.7
53	Florida St.	103.5
54	Nebraska	103.2
55	Michigan St.	103.0
56	Stanford	103.0
57	UCF	102.8
58	Virginia	102.7
59	Washington St.	102.5
60	Louisville	102.1
61	Texas Tech	101.9
62	Appalachian St.	101.0
63	South Carolina	100.8
64	Houston	100.7
65	San Jose St.	100.3
66	Pittsburgh	100.2
67	San Diego St.	100.2
68	Tulsa	100.1
69	Army	100.0
70	Miami (Ohio)	99.7
71	Central Michigan	99.7
72	Tulane	99.0
73	Nevada	98.8
74	Wyoming	98.5
75	California	98.4
76	Georgia Tech	98.2
77	Buffalo	98.0
78	Ball St.	97.4
79	Toledo	96.7
80	Air Force	96.5
81	Georgia St.	96.5
82	Illinois	96.4
83	Fresno St.	95.3
84	East Carolina	95.3
85	U A B	95.2
86	SMU	95.0
87	Rutgers	95.0
88	Arizona	94.6
89	Hawaii	94.6
90	U T S A	93.9
91	Ohio	93.5
92	Marshall	93.4
93	Troy	93.4
94	Memphis	93.2
95	Syracuse	92.9
96	Kent St.	91.7
97	Georgia Southern	91.6
98	Eastern Michigan	91.4
99	South Alabama	91.2
100	Western Michigan	91.0
101	USF	90.4
102	Navy	90.3
103	Vanderbilt	90.1
104	Arkansas St.	89.9
105	Duke	89.8
106	Colorado St.	89.0
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Florida Atlantic	87.7
109	Northern Illinois	87.5
110	Rice	87.1
111	Louisiana Tech	86.5
112	Utah St.	85.8
113	New Mexico	85.7
114	Kansas	85.4
115	U N L V	84.9
116	Southern Miss.	84.4
117	Middle Tennessee	83.7
118	Western Kentucky	82.7
119	North Texas	81.7
120	Temple	81.6
121	Akron	79.8
122	Charlotte	79.5
123	Florida Int’l.	79.0
124	Connecticut	76.7
125	U T E P	76.0
126	UL-Monroe	75.6
127	UMass	73.1
128	Old Dominion	71.4
129	Bowling Green	70.8
130	New Mexico St.	69.7

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	116.3	115.3	118.0	116.5
UCF	102.5	101.2	104.8	102.8
Houston	101.1	99.5	101.6	100.7
Tulsa	100.2	100.3	99.7	100.1
Tulane	98.8	97.5	100.6	99.0
East Carolina	95.3	94.3	96.2	95.3
SMU	94.3	95.4	95.4	95.0
Memphis	92.4	92.8	94.3	93.2
USF	91.0	89.7	90.6	90.4
Navy	90.8	90.0	90.3	90.3
Temple	80.6	82.4	81.9	81.6
AAC Averages	96.7	96.2	97.6	96.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.9	121.5	124.0	122.2
Wake Forest	108.0	106.7	108.3	107.7
NC State	106.5	105.8	105.9	106.1
Boston College	104.7	105.3	105.7	105.2
Florida St.	103.4	103.6	103.5	103.5
Louisville	101.7	101.4	103.2	102.1
Syracuse	93.7	93.1	92.1	92.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.4	116.7	119.9	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	117.1	116.1	117.7	116.9
Virginia Tech	106.4	104.9	104.7	105.3
Virginia	102.1	104.1	101.8	102.7
Pittsburgh	99.8	100.9	100.1	100.2
Georgia Tech	98.0	98.3	98.3	98.2
Duke	89.7	91.2	88.5	89.8
ACC Averages	104.9	105.0	105.3	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	129.3	126.7	128.2	128.1
Iowa St.	125.3	123.5	125.6	124.8
T C U	116.6	115.1	116.3	116.0
Texas	116.7	114.5	115.6	115.6
Oklahoma St.	113.5	113.2	112.5	113.1
West Virginia	113.8	112.0	111.1	112.3
Baylor	104.9	104.8	103.8	104.5
Kansas St.	104.9	104.7	103.5	104.4
Texas Tech	102.0	102.8	100.8	101.9
Kansas	88.1	85.6	82.5	85.4
Big 12 Averages	111.5	110.3	110.0	110.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Indiana	114.9	115.0	116.4	115.5
Penn St.	111.7	112.8	114.6	113.1
Maryland	108.7	106.9	105.8	107.2
Michigan	104.3	105.1	105.3	104.9
Michigan St.	103.5	103.0	102.5	103.0
Rutgers	94.1	96.3	94.5	95.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.2	115.2	117.3	115.9
Iowa	112.3	111.6	114.5	112.8
Minnesota	104.6	106.1	107.6	106.1
Northwestern	105.8	105.8	105.8	105.8
Purdue	103.6	102.9	104.5	103.7
Nebraska	102.8	103.4	103.3	103.2
Illinois	96.0	96.4	96.9	96.4
Big Ten Averages	107.0	107.3	108.0	107.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.8	110.6	111.2	110.2
BYU	109.2	108.2	110.3	109.2
Liberty	104.3	105.6	106.5	105.5
Army	100.0	99.8	100.2	100.0
Connecticut	77.4	78.6	74.2	76.7
UMass	74.8	74.0	70.5	73.1
New Mexico St.	70.3	71.1	67.6	69.7
Indep. Averages	92.1	92.6	91.5	92.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	101.9	99.2	98.1	99.7
Buffalo	98.5	97.5	97.9	98.0
Ohio	92.2	94.4	94.0	93.5
Kent St.	91.3	93.4	90.5	91.7
Akron	81.8	79.6	78.1	79.8
Bowling Green	71.6	72.1	68.8	70.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.5	99.1	99.5	99.7
Ball St.	98.4	98.3	95.5	97.4
Toledo	97.5	96.7	95.8	96.7
Eastern Michigan	93.1	91.2	89.8	91.4
Western Michigan	91.2	91.6	90.1	91.0
Northern Illinois	89.3	87.0	86.1	87.5
MAC Averages	92.3	91.7	90.4	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.9	103.3	104.3	103.9
Wyoming	97.7	98.4	99.5	98.5
Air Force	96.4	96.3	96.9	96.5
Colorado St.	88.8	88.8	89.3	89.0
Utah St.	85.6	86.6	85.2	85.8
New Mexico	85.8	86.2	85.2	85.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	100.8	101.1	99.0	100.3
San Diego St.	100.6	99.9	100.2	100.2
Nevada	98.4	99.7	98.4	98.8
Fresno St.	93.7	95.7	96.7	95.3
Hawaii	94.8	94.1	94.7	94.6
U N L V	85.8	84.3	84.6	84.9
MWC Averages	94.4	94.5	94.5	94.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.0	112.4	114.1	112.5
Washington	110.9	112.4	112.9	112.1
Oregon St.	106.7	106.7	107.3	106.9
Stanford	102.6	103.9	102.4	103.0
Washington St.	102.3	103.2	102.1	102.5
California	95.7	100.5	99.0	98.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	118.8	118.4	120.9	119.4
Arizona St.	112.4	113.5	113.6	113.1
Utah	111.8	112.1	111.8	111.9
U C L A	110.5	110.5	110.6	110.5
Colorado	106.4	105.8	104.9	105.7
Arizona	95.2	94.5	94.0	94.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.0	107.8	107.8	107.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	124.8	124.5	126.3	125.2
Florida	117.0	119.4	118.1	118.2
Kentucky	106.7	108.8	106.8	107.4
Missouri	106.2	106.9	106.2	106.4
Tennessee	104.1	103.1	104.6	104.0
South Carolina	101.1	101.0	100.4	100.8
Vanderbilt	90.9	89.9	89.6	90.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.4	128.8	131.3	130.2
Texas A&M	117.4	118.3	118.6	118.1
Auburn	116.4	115.2	116.6	116.1
Ole Miss	113.3	113.3	113.2	113.3
L S U	111.0	112.4	112.8	112.1
Mississippi St.	110.2	110.4	109.7	110.1
Arkansas	110.1	109.9	108.5	109.5
SEC Averages	111.4	111.6	111.6	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.2	106.4	109.6	108.4
Appalachian St.	100.5	100.0	102.5	101.0
Georgia St.	97.0	96.2	96.3	96.5
Troy	93.1	93.4	93.7	93.4
Georgia Southern	91.7	92.1	91.2	91.6
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.8	107.6	110.4	109.2
South Alabama	91.6	91.5	90.6	91.2
Arkansas St.	89.8	91.0	88.8	89.9
Texas St.	89.4	86.7	87.2	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.4	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.8	94.1	94.4	94.5

Conference Ratings
1	Southeastern	111.5
2	Big 12	110.6
3	Pac-12	107.5
4	Big Ten	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Sun Belt	94.5
8	Mountain West	94.5
9	Independents	92.1
10	Mid-American	91.4
11	Conference USA	84.4

Mid-American Conference Preview

There wasn’t much MACtion in the Mid-American Conference in 2020.  Covid limited MAC play to a minimum number of games with two teams playing just three games, one other playing four times, one team playing eight games, and the rest playing five to seven times.

In the end, two teams emerged as the clear cut best in the league–Buffalo in the East and Ball State in the West.  Ball St. defeated the 5-0 Bulls in the MAC Championship Game, and then both teams won their bowl games, Buffalo over Marshall in the Camellia Bowl, and Ball St. over San Jose St. in the Arizona Bowl.

Buffalo faced a minor rebuild on the offensive end with four new starters needed to replace the best receiving corps in the league, but the Bulls were hit with a very late blow in the Spring.  Coach Lance Leipold had been a candidate for multiple Power 5 coaching gigs in December, but he came up short on all of them.  Then, after Kansas fired Les Miles, Leipold was offered and accepted the job in Lawrence.  Former Dallas Cowboys secondary coach and Michigan co-defensive coordinator Maurice “Mo” Linguist has developed a reputation for being an incredible recruiter, and he should bring some fine talent to The Queen City.

There’s an additional irony to the MAC East, as co-favorite Ohio U had a late head coaching change.  Legendary coach Frank Solich stepped down due to health concerns, and offensive coordinator Tim Albin takes over.  Albin has not been a head coach since 1999, but that Northwestern Oklahoma State team finished 13-0 and won the NAIA football championship.

Kent State and Miami of Ohio have the same head coaches they had last year.  Fans of Kent State are excited about Coach Sean Lewis’s up-tempo offense.  In their abbreviated season, The Golden Flashes averaged almost 50 points per game and more than 600 total yards per game.  Miami’s season ended after playing just three games, but the Redhawks penned the lone loss on the conference champs, topping Ball State by a touchdown. 

Akron and Bowling Green bring up the rear in the East.  Akron won the head-to-head matchup last year, but the two teams combined to go 1-10, both giving up more than 40 points per game.

The race in the MAC West should be one of the most competitive races of any FBS division.  A case could be made for five of the six teams to earn a piece of the first place this year, and only Northern Illinois figures not to challenge for supremacy.

Defending champs Ball State returns the bulk of its starting 22 players from last year, but the Cardinals won four of their five regular season games by seven points or less.  Rarely does a team repeat that feat from year to year.  Usually, if the team isn’t vastly better, they lose a couple of the types of games they won the year before.

Central Michigan and Toledo figure to be much improved in 2021.  Both schools return almost their entire starting lineups on both sides of the ball.  Keep an eye out for these very experienced and talented squads in September games against Power 5 opponents.  CMU plays Missouri, while Toledo takes on Notre Dame.  

Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan return a majority of their 2020 starters but with every player getting a free extra year, having 16 returning starters is almost below average.

Northern Illinois, once the best Group of 5 program in America, has fallen on hard times.  The Huskies went 0-6 last year and figure to be underdogs in almost every game against FBS competition this year.

Here is how the MAC media voted in the preseason poll:

2021 MAC Football Preseason Poll

(First Place Votes in Parentheses)

East Division

1. Kent State (11) – 112 points

2. Ohio (2) – 96 points

3. Miami (5) – 94 points

4. Buffalo (4) – 93 points

5. Akron – 39 points

6. Bowling Green – 28 points

West Division

1. Ball State (11) – 114 points

2. Toledo (7) – 104 points

3. Western Michigan (4) – 103 points

4. Central Michigan – 68 points

5. Eastern Michigan – 44 points

6. Northern Illinois – 29 points

MAC Football Championship Game Winner: Ball State (7), Toledo (5), Kent State (4), Western Michigan (3), Buffalo (2), Miami (1)

The preseason PiRate Ratings differ somewhat.

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	101.9	99.2	98.1	99.7
Buffalo	98.5	97.5	97.9	98.0
Ohio	92.2	94.4	94.0	93.5
Kent St.	91.3	93.4	90.5	91.7
Akron	81.8	79.6	78.1	79.8
Bowling Green	71.6	72.1	68.8	70.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.5	99.1	99.5	99.7
Ball St.	98.4	98.3	95.5	97.4
Toledo	97.5	96.7	95.8	96.7
Eastern Michigan	93.1	91.2	89.8	91.4
Western Michigan	91.2	91.6	90.1	91.0
Northern Illinois	89.3	87.0	86.1	87.5
MAC Averages	92.3	91.7	90.4	91.4

The PiRate Ratings are not designed to pick seasonal won-loss records, but we use them any way to make predictions just for fun.

MAC East	Conf.	Overall
Miami (Ohio)	6-2	8-5*
Buffalo	5-3	7-5
Ohio	5-3	7-5
Kent St.	4-4	5-7
Akron	1-7	2-10
Bowling Green	0-8	1-11
MAC West	Conf.	Overall
Central Michigan	6-2	8-5
Toledo	6-2	9-3
Ball St.	6-2	8-4
Eastern Michigan	5-3	8-4
Western Michigan	2-6	3-9
Northern Illinois	2-6	3-9
* Miami (Ohio) picked to win MAC Championship Game

It’s Football Time!

The PiRate Ship arrived at the port today. Our College PiRate Ratings, The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings to be exact, are ready to go public. As we expected, the top teams in the nation are more experienced as a whole than they were last year, but a large majority of FBS teams are more experienced. In fact, as we hinted earlier this Summer, the total amount of college football experience and average age is at its highest since the late 1940s, when the G.I. Bill allowed former collegians to return from the War and resume their lives where it was before the War.

Because the weakest teams will be better than they have been in normal years, and because our ratings must average 100.0, since 100 is par, that means that the preseason top 10 will have lower then normal power ratings to begin the 2021 season.

As we do every year, we will begin Friday reviewing one conference per day until Monday, February 23. We will start with the weakest conference by average PiRate Ratings, ending with the strongest conference on the 23rd. Here’s the schedule:

Friday, August 13: Conference USA

Saturday, August 14: Mid-American Conference

Sunday, August 15: The FBS Independents

Monday, August 16: Mountain West Conference

Tuesday, August 17: Sun Belt Conference

Wednesday, August 18: American Athletic Conference

Thursday, August 19: Atlantic Coast Conference

Friday, August 20: Big Ten Conference

Saturday, August 21: Pac-12 Conference

Sunday, August 22: Big 12 Conference

Monday, August 23: Southeastern Conference

Later on Monday, August 23, we will post our opening college spreads for Week 0.

2021 College Football Season Historically Before It Happens

Hello out there in Pigskinville, especially all of our super fans of the Southeastern Conference. The PiRates have left the harbor in our vessel for 2021, hoping it will get us out into the shipping lanes for the 2021-2022 football season.

Needless to say, this has been the most difficult Spring for updating college football ratings in the 52 years that the ratings have existed. To be more exact, the PiRate Ratings have been utilizing the same formulas with off-season updates since 1996, as pre-Internet, our system was quite a bit more spartan in calculations. Since 1996, off-season updating has been a mechanical process that involved about 8 weeks of working an average of 20 hours per week in the early mornings and evenings, or roughy 160 hours to update 130 teams.

That dastardly little virus totally fouled up the process last year. At first, just a few dozen teams committed to playing a season. Then, it jumped to 76 then 90-something, and finally 127 of the 130 teams played football, even if they only played five games. Then, in the Spring the FCS played a season, but FBS Independent New Mexico State played two FCS games, getting blown out by Tarleton State and barely edging a fledgling program in Dixie State.

The question became, “How do we update teams that played between 0 and 12 games, including three teams that did not play, one of which played two FCS Spring games and trailed one of those teams 40-7 less than a minute into the second half?

Just coming up with an alternate one-year re-calculation that could be applied to our mechanical updating system took most of the Month of April, and applying the one-year substitute formulas in a process that maintained a level statistical playing field gobbled up all of May through Memorial Day weekend.

Alas, by June 5, we had the process finalized. However, acquiring the stats from all 130 FBS schools took another 10 days, with the acquisition of team #130, U Mass, coming this morning.

Now, the hard work begins today in earnest. At two teams per weekday, one in the early morning and one in the evening and four teams per weekend day, it will take a little over 7 weeks to finalize the preseason ratings for the 2021 college football season. Thus, we expect to be ready by August 10 and should begin our previews around Saturday, August 14 through 24. The season kicks off Saturday, August 28, with what is being called, “Week 0.”

The 2021 season is going to be somewhat like the 1946-1949 seasons. World War II led to many war veterans playing college football well into their 20’s. Oklahoma’s 1949 had more war veterans over the age of a normal college senior than they had correct age underclassmen. The Sooners won 31 games in a row during this era, and multiple players commented that playing football was much easier than fighting a war. That 1949 Sooner team could have had a speedy back from Commerce, OK, on the roster, but Mickey Mantle chose to play baseball after visiting Norman on a recruiting trip and discovering that there were men in the locker room, meaning he would see little action until they finally graduated about the time their children were entering grade school.

Because the NCAA granted an extra year for all college football players, the teams will be considerably more mature, both physically and mentally. Add into this equation the rule that has allowed all players a free transfer, and all of a sudden, the transfer list is more important than the freshmen recruiting list and maybe more important than the two year old recruiting list, or players ready to contribute. A relatively new stat that sort of mimics what we have been doing for several years is the returning production ratings made by Billy Connelly, now at ESPN. We don’t know how Billy plans to adjust his ratings, but the PiRates are giving considerable weight to transfers that expect to see extensive playing time. For instance, in less than 48 hours, Georgia picked up two transfers that figure to be major contributors. They previously had two other top-rated transfers. These four players make Georgia almost a full touchdown better than they would be using just returning production. Now, toss into this equation that a couple of point-changing transfers are still undecided on a 2021 team, and the possibility probability that some player or players will make an eleventh hour decision to transfer just before August practices commence, and we will be updating the updated ratings all summer. Our ratings are based on 100.0 being par. With 130 teams playing, the total for each of our three different ratings adds to 13,000. If a team is adjusted, then 129 other teams must adjust by a minute amount. By August, usually 15-20 teams have to be adjusted due to players leaving or entering programs at the last minute. That leads not to 15-20 updates but 15-20 updates of 130 teams.

We hope that our ratings continue to be as accurate as possible. In the past five years, our ratings have remained in the top 10% of all computer football ratings at the Prediction Tracker. Almost every year since we have been part of the Prediction Tracker, our ratings have finished in the top 5 against the Spread and for the all-important Mean Square Error, which basically calculates how close our spreads came to the actual margins. However, we suspect that the opening month of the college football season this year is going to be much more unpredictable than past seasons. We expect many of the computer ratings to begin the season behind the eight ball as the incredible amount of variables affect the game. Hopefully, our unique way of updating our ratings, with the extra attention to the transfer market along with the overall experience of teams that will have multiple six-year personnel, will allow us to get off to a fast start.

Through the years, we have given you our best advice toward football wagering–just don’t do it! At least, we ask that you do not use the PiRate Ratings as your source for gambling your mortgage payment away to corporations that build castles to the clouds in Nevada. We expect the underdogs to cover the spread more than typical in the first two weeks of the college season, unless the books lower lines and find enough people to wrongly choose the favorite. If you have the ability to wager early before the season commences and then play the other side in games where the lines appreciably move, you might be able to find some hot middles to play. Unless you know in advance which lines are likely to move by more than three points, it isn’t going to help you. But, if you have State U at -6 1/2 against Tech and wager on State U on August 12, and then on game week three weeks later, the line has moved to 9 1/2, and you can put the same wager amount on Tech, if you can find three or more of these games, this might be the year to play middles on the opening weekend. Still, we ask you to use some other means as your research if you must donate to Nevada corporations.

There is a group in the Caribbean that uses our ratings as a major part of their gaming selections. However, they have a large computer program that analyzes the spreads and our ratings, knowing when to play a minimal number of games that their program says to wager. They hit over 60% success against the spread, but their method is not possible to utilize unless you can immediately wager on certain line movements at an offshore book. There is also the issue of not just winning from an offshore book; you have to be able to collect from them as well, and some of them are hesitant to allow this.

We look forward to providing you with weekly entertainment. Expect the first conference ratings, preview, and predictions to publish around August 14. Thank you for your support.

If you are a tabletop baseball fan, our Sabertooth Baseball Games have been bases-clearing doubles down the line this Spring. We have an advanced version of great teams of all 16 franchises between 1920 and 1959, and we have a simpler, quicker playing game of all 20 franchises in existence in the early and mid-60’s, with teams between 1959 and 1972. Click on the link below for more information.

Sabertooth Baseball

PiRate Ratings–College Football For November 10-14, 2020

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio	Akron	26.5	24.8	29.4
Bowling Green	Kent St.	-16.7	-14.5	-20.0
Buffalo	Miami (O)	3.8	5.9	5.3
Ball St.	Eastern Mich.	10.8	7.9	10.6
Western Mich.	Toledo	3.2	4.1	4.8
Northern Ill.	Central Mich.	-9.3	-7.4	-9.6
Boise St.	Colorado St.	16.6	15.4	16.2
Minnesota	Iowa	-2.5	-1.7	-2.4
Florida Intl.	Fla. Atlantic	6.7	5.1	6.0
Cincinnati	E. Carolina	28.3	28.0	29.7
UCLA	Utah	-5.8	-6.8	-8.6
Boston College	Notre Dame	-18.4	-17.8	-18.0
Virginia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	0.1	-1.6	0.8
Washington St.	Oregon	-12.3	-11.9	-11.2
Arizona	USC	-13.3	-12.4	-13.4
Arizona St.	California	2.4	1.7	2.1
Washington	Oregon St.	9.6	8.3	11.5
Nebraska	Penn St.	-7.1	-6.6	-6.3
Utah St.	Fresno St.	-5.4	-6.6	-6.2
UAB	North Texas	20.7	20.6	20.2
Texas Tech	Baylor	-7.4	-8.4	-7.1
West Va.	TCU	0.1	2.0	0.2
Rutgers	Illinois	2.2	1.7	0.4
Purdue	Northwestern	0.3	0.9	-1.1
Missouri	Georgia	-15.0	-14.1	-14.5
Michigan St.	Indiana	-13.2	-14.2	-15.3
Troy	Coastal Carolina	-10.5	-9.9	–10.8
N. Carolina	Wake Forest	12.4	12.0	13.0
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	23.4	24.1	25.7
Tulane	Army	8.0	6.2	7.1
Marshall	Middle Tenn.	23.3	23.3	22.6
Louisiana	S. Alabama	18.8	16.9	17.7
Appalachian St.	Georgia St.	15.9	15.2	16.6
Arkansas St.	UL-Monroe	17.0	17.7	18.2
UTSA	UTEP	9.7	7.9	9.8
Houston	S. Florida	14.4	14.3	14.9
Maryland	Ohio St.	-35.3	-34.3	-38.3
Tennessee	Texas A&M	-11.7	-12.2	-12.1
Louisiana Tech	Rice	-1.7	1.2	-1.0
Navy	Memphis	-10.3	-10.5	-10.6
Georgia Southern	Texas St.	13.9	14.4	15.8
Stanford	Colorado	7.8	4.1	8.8
Virginia	Louisville	-2.8	-2.3	-1.6
Mississippi St.	Auburn	-11.9	-11.3	-11.5
San Diego St.	Hawaii	7.1	8.4	8.7
LSU	Alabama	-12.5	-14.5	-13.2
Western Ky.	Southern Miss.	9.7	10.0	10.7
New Mexico	Nevada	-8.5	-8.7	-10.6
Florida	Arkansas	21.8	20.5	23.2
Tulsa	SMU	2.9	1.6	1.8
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	-7.0	-8.7	-7.8
Michigan	Wisconsin	-13.5	-11.8	-12.8
NC St.	Florida St.	3.3	5.0	4.3
Ole Miss	S. Carolina	2.5	3.2	3.0
UCF	Temple	24.0	24.3	26.1
Wyoming	Air Force	-1.7	-1.1	-0.6
San Jose St.	UNLV	16.0	16.9	17.0
FBS vs. FCS
FBS	FCS	PiRate
Liberty	Western Carolina	31.1
Charlotte	Gardner-Webb	27.3

Games with Strike-through lines have been cancelled due to Covid. As of Friday at 4:00 PM EST, 15 of 61 scheduled FBS games have been postponed or cancelled (24.5%).

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Ohio St.	132.0	130.9	134.4	132.4	BTen-E
2	Alabama	130.5	131.6	132.8	131.6	SEC-W
3	Clemson	126.2	126.8	128.2	127.1	ACC
4	Wisconsin	125.0	122.7	126.0	124.6	BTen-W
5	Florida	123.3	122.8	124.3	123.5	SEC-E
6	Notre Dame	123.3	122.9	123.4	123.2	ACC
7	Georgia	121.7	120.7	122.4	121.6	SEC-E
8	Texas A&M	119.6	119.6	119.9	119.7	SEC-W
9	Oregon	119.9	118.3	119.8	119.3	P12-N
10	Oklahoma	119.1	118.6	119.4	119.1	B12
11	Cincinnati	118.5	117.9	118.6	118.3	AAC
12	Auburn	116.9	115.6	116.9	116.5	SEC-W
13	L S U	116.0	115.1	117.6	116.2	SEC-W
14	Penn St.	116.0	114.7	116.4	115.7	BTen-E
15	N. Carolina	115.2	115.6	116.3	115.7	ACC
16	BYU	115.1	114.9	115.6	115.2	Ind.
17	Oklahoma St.	115.2	114.3	114.8	114.8	B12
18	U S C	115.9	113.3	114.9	114.7	P12-S
19	Indiana	113.1	113.7	115.6	114.1	BTen-E
20	Texas	114.1	112.9	114.0	113.7	B12
21	Iowa	112.9	112.6	114.5	113.3	BTen-W
22	UCF	112.9	113.0	113.6	113.2	AAC
23	Kentucky	112.0	112.0	113.2	112.4	SEC-E
24	Iowa St.	111.0	110.2	111.2	110.8	B12
25	Michigan	110.0	109.4	111.6	110.4	BTen-E
26	Miami (Fla.)	109.2	111.3	109.7	110.1	ACC
27	Washington	109.9	108.6	110.6	109.7	P12-N
28	Minnesota	108.9	109.4	110.5	109.6	BTen-W
29	Utah	109.0	108.6	109.7	109.1	P12-S
30	Northwestern	107.6	107.8	110.3	108.6	BTen-W
31	Louisville	108.3	108.2	107.6	108.0	ACC
32	Arizona St.	108.1	107.6	108.1	107.9	P12-S
33	Virginia Tech	107.3	107.8	108.5	107.8	ACC
34	Kansas St.	107.9	107.1	108.2	107.7	B12
35	California	107.2	107.4	107.5	107.4	P12-N
36	Ole Miss	107.6	106.5	107.5	107.2	SEC-W
37	Purdue	106.5	107.2	107.8	107.2	BTen-W
38	Nebraska	106.8	106.1	108.1	107.0	BTen-W
39	T C U	107.3	105.2	107.4	106.7	B12
40	Baylor	106.7	106.3	106.4	106.5	B12
41	S. Carolina	107.0	105.3	106.5	106.3	SEC-E
42	Tennessee	106.4	105.9	106.3	106.2	SEC-E
43	Boise St.	106.3	106.2	106.0	106.2	MWC-M
44	Washington St.	106.0	104.9	107.1	106.0	P12-N
45	W. Virginia	105.4	105.3	105.6	105.4	B12
46	Memphis	106.1	104.9	104.6	105.2	AAC
47	Missouri	104.7	104.6	105.9	105.1	SEC-E
48	Coastal Car.	103.8	104.5	104.5	104.3	SUN-E
49	Virginia	104.0	104.3	104.4	104.3	ACC
50	Wake Forest	103.8	104.5	104.3	104.2	ACC
51	Arkansas	103.5	104.3	103.1	103.6	SEC-W
52	Stanford	104.6	102.1	103.7	103.5	P12-N
53	Miss. St.	103.5	102.8	103.9	103.4	SEC-W
54	Boston Coll.	102.9	103.1	103.4	103.1	ACC
55	Pittsburgh	102.5	103.5	102.4	102.8	ACC
56	Appal. St.	102.8	102.1	103.3	102.7	SUN-E
57	Tulsa	103.6	101.9	101.9	102.4	AAC
58	SMU	102.6	102.3	102.0	102.3	AAC
59	Marshall	102.4	102.6	101.8	102.2	CUSA-E
60	Louisiana	102.3	101.6	101.4	101.8	SUN-W
61	Oregon St.	101.8	101.9	100.6	101.4	P12-N
62	U C L A	101.7	100.3	99.6	100.5	P12-S
63	Houston	101.4	99.9	100.1	100.5	AAC
64	NC State	100.1	100.6	100.6	100.4	ACC
65	Arizona	101.1	99.4	100.1	100.2	P12-S
66	Tulane	100.4	100.3	99.7	100.1	AAC
67	Air Force	99.8	100.4	99.5	99.9	MWC-M
68	Liberty	98.2	100.7	99.4	99.4	Ind.
69	Illinois	99.2	98.5	100.0	99.2	BTen-W
70	Rutgers	99.9	98.7	98.9	99.2	BTen-E
71	San Diego St.	98.5	99.7	99.1	99.1	MWC-W
72	Michigan St.	98.4	98.0	98.8	98.4	BTen-E
73	Florida St.	98.7	97.7	98.3	98.2	ACC
74	Colorado	98.3	99.5	96.4	98.0	P12-S
75	Buffalo	97.2	98.0	98.3	97.8	MAC-E
76	Duke	97.8	97.9	97.1	97.6	ACC
77	Texas Tech	97.8	96.4	97.8	97.3	B12
78	Wyoming	96.7	97.9	97.4	97.3	MWC-M
79	San Jose St.	95.9	97.8	96.0	96.6	MWC-W
80	U A B	96.0	96.5	95.4	96.0	CUSA-W
81	Ohio	94.3	94.9	95.7	95.0	MAC-E
82	Maryland	95.2	95.1	94.6	95.0	BTen-E
83	Army	93.9	95.6	94.0	94.5	Ind.
84	Nevada	93.7	94.6	94.7	94.4	MWC-W
85	Miami (O)	94.9	93.6	94.5	94.3	MAC-E
86	Hawaii	94.4	94.3	93.4	94.0	MWC-W
87	Fresno St.	93.6	94.3	93.4	93.8	MWC-W
88	Georgia Sou.	93.2	94.1	93.8	93.7	SUN-E
89	Western Mich.	92.4	94.6	93.6	93.5	MAC-W
90	Central Mich.	93.5	93.2	93.9	93.5	MAC-W
91	Georgia Tech	94.0	93.3	93.1	93.5	ACC
92	Navy	94.3	92.9	92.4	93.2	AAC
93	Troy	92.3	93.6	92.7	92.9	SUN-E
94	Ball St.	92.4	91.5	92.5	92.2	MAC-W
95	Colorado St.	91.2	92.2	91.4	91.6	MWC-M
96	Florida Int’l.	91.3	91.0	91.3	91.2	CUSA-E
97	E. Carolina	91.7	91.4	90.3	91.1	AAC
98	Toledo	90.7	92.0	90.2	91.0	MAC-W
99	Syracuse	89.9	91.4	90.5	90.6	ACC
100	Temple	90.9	90.7	89.5	90.4	AAC
101	Kent St.	89.9	89.3	89.3	89.5	MAC-E
102	Vanderbilt	90.1	89.3	88.9	89.5	SEC-E
103	W. Kentucky	89.1	89.6	88.8	89.2	CUSA-E
104	Georgia St.	88.9	88.9	88.7	88.8	SUN-E
105	Arkansas St.	88.2	88.9	88.0	88.4	SUN-W
106	Rice	88.9	86.8	88.2	88.0	CUSA-W
107	USF	88.5	87.1	86.7	87.4	AAC
108	La. Tech	86.1	87.0	86.2	86.5	CUSA-W
109	Fla. Atlantic	85.6	86.9	86.3	86.2	CUSA-E
110	Utah St.	86.7	86.2	85.8	86.2	MWC-M
111	S. Alabama	85.0	86.2	85.2	85.5	SUN-W
112	Charlotte	85.3	85.5	85.2	85.4	CUSA-E
113	New Mexico	83.7	84.5	82.6	83.6	MWC-M
114	Eastern Mich.	82.6	84.6	83.0	83.4	MAC-W
115	N. Illinois	82.6	84.2	82.8	83.2	MAC-W
116	U N L V	81.4	82.5	80.6	81.5	MWC-W
117	Middle Tenn.	81.1	81.3	81.1	81.2	CUSA-E
118	Southern Miss.	80.9	81.1	79.6	80.5	CUSA-W
119	Texas St.	80.8	81.2	79.5	80.5	SUN-W
120	U T S A	79.2	79.6	79.2	79.3	CUSA-W
121	Kansas	79.6	79.0	78.1	78.9	B12
122	North Texas	76.8	77.3	76.6	76.9	CUSA-W
123	UL-Monroe	72.6	72.7	71.4	72.2	SUN-W
124	Bowling Green	72.2	73.8	68.4	71.4	MAC-E
125	U T E P	70.4	72.7	70.5	71.2	CUSA-W
126	Akron	68.8	71.1	67.3	69.1	MAC-E
127	Mass.	62.0	68.3	59.8	63.4	Ind.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	AAC	Overall
Cincinnati	118.5	117.9	118.6	118.3	4-0	6-0
UCF	112.9	113.0	113.6	113.2	3-2	4-2
Memphis	106.1	104.9	104.6	105.2	3-2	4-2
Tulsa	103.6	101.9	101.9	102.4	3-0	3-1
SMU	102.6	102.3	102.0	102.3	4-1	7-1
Houston	101.4	99.9	100.1	100.5	2-2	2-3
Tulane	100.4	100.3	99.7	100.1	2-4	4-4
Navy	94.3	92.9	92.4	93.2	3-2	3-4
E. Carolina	91.7	91.4	90.3	91.1	1-3	1-5
Temple	90.9	90.7	89.5	90.4	1-4	1-4
USF	88.5	87.1	86.7	87.4	0-5	1-6
AAC Avg.	101.0	100.2	99.9	100.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	ACC	Overall
Clemson	126.2	126.8	128.2	127.1	6-1	7-1
Notre Dame	123.3	122.9	123.4	123.2	6-0	7-0
N. Carolina	115.2	115.6	116.3	115.7	5-2	5-2
Miami (Fla.)	109.2	111.3	109.7	110.1	5-1	6-1
Louisville	108.3	108.2	107.6	108.0	1-5	2-5
Virginia Tech	107.3	107.8	108.5	107.8	4-2	4-3
Virginia	104.0	104.3	104.4	104.3	2-4	2-4
Wake Forest	103.8	104.5	104.3	104.2	3-2	4-2
Boston Coll.	102.9	103.1	103.4	103.1	4-3	5-3
Pittsburgh	102.5	103.5	102.4	102.8	3-4	4-4
NC State	100.1	100.6	100.6	100.4	4-3	4-3
Florida St.	98.7	97.7	98.3	98.2	1-5	2-5
Duke	97.8	97.9	97.1	97.6	1-6	2-6
Georgia Tech	94.0	93.3	93.1	93.5	2-4	2-5
Syracuse	89.9	91.4	90.5	90.6	1-6	1-7
ACC Avg.	105.6	105.9	105.8	105.8
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.1	118.6	119.4	119.1	4-2	5-2
Oklahoma St.	115.2	114.3	114.8	114.8	4-1	5-1
Texas	114.1	112.9	114.0	113.7	4-2	5-2
Iowa St.	111.0	110.2	111.2	110.8	5-1	5-2
Kansas St.	107.9	107.1	108.2	107.7	4-2	4-3
T C U	107.3	105.2	107.4	106.7	3-3	3-3
Baylor	106.7	106.3	106.4	106.5	1-4	1-4
W. Virginia	105.4	105.3	105.6	105.4	3-3	4-3
Texas Tech	97.8	96.4	97.8	97.3	1-5	2-5
Kansas	79.6	79.0	78.1	78.9	0-6	0-7
Big 12 Avg.	106.4	105.5	106.3	106.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	132.0	130.9	134.4	132.4	3-0	3-0
Penn St.	116.0	114.7	116.4	115.7	0-3	0-3
Indiana	113.1	113.7	115.6	114.1	3-0	3-0
Michigan	110.0	109.4	111.6	110.4	1-2	1-2
Rutgers	99.9	98.7	98.9	99.2	1-2	1-2
Michigan St.	98.4	98.0	98.8	98.4	1-2	1-2
Maryland	95.2	95.1	94.6	95.0	2-1	2-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	125.0	122.7	126.0	124.6	1-0	1-0
Iowa	112.9	112.6	114.5	113.3	1-2	1-2
Minnesota	108.9	109.4	110.5	109.6	1-2	1-2
Northwestern	107.6	107.8	110.3	108.6	3-0	3-0
Purdue	106.5	107.2	107.8	107.2	2-0	2-0
Nebraska	106.8	106.1	108.1	107.0	0-2	0-2
Illinois	99.2	98.5	100.0	99.2	0-3	0-3
Big Ten Avg.	109.4	108.9	110.5	109.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	102.4	102.6	101.8	102.2	3-0	6-0
Florida Int’l.	91.3	91.0	91.3	91.2	0-1	0-3
W. Kentucky	89.1	89.6	88.8	89.2	1-3	2-6
Fla. Atlantic	85.6	86.9	86.3	86.2	3-1	3-1
Charlotte	85.3	85.5	85.2	85.4	2-1	2-3
Middle Tenn.	81.1	81.3	81.1	81.2	2-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	CUSA	Overall
U A B	96.0	96.5	95.4	96.0	2-1	4-3
Rice	88.9	86.8	88.2	88.0	1-1	1-1
La. Tech	86.1	87.0	86.2	86.5	3-2	4-3
Southern Miss.	80.9	81.1	79.6	80.5	1-2	2-5
U T S A	79.2	79.6	79.2	79.3	2-2	4-4
North Texas	76.8	77.3	76.6	76.9	1-2	2-3
U T E P	70.4	72.7	70.5	71.2	0-2	3-3
CUSA Avg.	85.6	86.0	85.4	85.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
BYU	115.1	114.9	115.6	115.2	x	8-0
Liberty	98.2	100.7	99.4	99.4	x	7-0
Army	93.9	95.6	94.0	94.5	x	5-1
Mass.	62.0	68.3	59.8	63.4	x	0-2
Ind. Avg.	92.3	94.9	92.2	93.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Buffalo	97.2	98.0	98.3	97.8	1-0	1-0
Ohio	94.3	94.9	95.7	95.0	0-1	0-1
Miami (O)	94.9	93.6	94.5	94.3	1-0	1-0
Kent St.	89.9	89.3	89.3	89.5	1-0	1-0
Bowling Green	72.2	73.8	68.4	71.4	0-1	0-1
Akron	68.8	71.1	67.3	69.1	0-1	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Western Mich.	92.4	94.6	93.6	93.5	1-0	1-0
Central Mich.	93.5	93.2	93.9	93.5	1-0	1-0
Ball St.	92.4	91.5	92.5	92.2	0-1	0-1
Toledo	90.7	92.0	90.2	91.0	1-0	1-0
Eastern Mich.	82.6	84.6	83.0	83.4	0-1	0-1
N. Illinois	82.6	84.2	82.8	83.2	0-1	0-1
MAC Avg.	87.6	88.4	87.5	87.8
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Boise St.	106.3	106.2	106.0	106.2	2-0	2-1
Air Force	99.8	100.4	99.5	99.9	0-2	1-2
Wyoming	96.7	97.9	97.4	97.3	1-2	1-2
Colorado St.	91.2	92.2	91.4	91.6	1-1	1-1
Utah St.	86.7	86.2	85.8	86.2	0-3	0-3
New Mexico	83.7	84.5	82.6	83.6	0-2	0-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
San Diego St.	98.5	99.7	99.1	99.1	2-1	2-1
San Jose St.	95.9	97.8	96.0	96.6	3-0	3-0
Nevada	93.7	94.6	94.7	94.4	3-0	3-0
Hawaii	94.4	94.3	93.4	94.0	2-1	2-1
Fresno St.	93.6	94.3	93.4	93.8	2-1	2-1
U N L V	81.4	82.5	80.6	81.5	0-3	0-3
MWC Avg.	93.5	94.2	93.3	93.7
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
Oregon	119.9	118.3	119.8	119.3	1-0	1-0
Washington	109.9	108.6	110.6	109.7	0-0	0-0
California	107.2	107.4	107.5	107.4	0-0	0-0
Washington St.	106.0	104.9	107.1	106.0	1-0	1-0
Stanford	104.6	102.1	103.7	103.5	0-1	0-1
Oregon St.	101.8	101.9	100.6	101.4	0-1	0-1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Conf.	Overall
U S C	115.9	113.3	114.9	114.7	1-0	1-0
Utah	109.0	108.6	109.7	109.1	0-0	0-0
Arizona St.	108.1	107.6	108.1	107.9	0-1	0-1
U C L A	101.7	100.3	99.6	100.5	0-1	0-1
Arizona	101.1	99.4	100.1	100.2	0-0	0-0
Colorado	98.3	99.5	96.4	98.0	1-0	1-0
P12 Avg.	107.0	106.0	106.5	106.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Florida	123.3	122.8	124.3	123.5	4-1	4-1
Georgia	121.7	120.7	122.4	121.6	4-2	4-2
Kentucky	112.0	112.0	113.2	112.4	2-4	2-4
S. Carolina	107.0	105.3	106.5	106.3	2-4	2-4
Tennessee	106.4	105.9	106.3	106.2	2-4	2-4
Missouri	104.7	104.6	105.9	105.1	2-3	2-3
Vanderbilt	90.1	89.3	88.9	89.5	0-5	0-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SEC	Overall
Alabama	130.5	131.6	132.8	131.6	6-0	6-0
Texas A&M	119.6	119.6	119.9	119.7	5-1	5-1
Auburn	116.9	115.6	116.9	116.5	4-2	4-2
L S U	116.0	115.1	117.6	116.2	2-3	2-3
Ole Miss	107.6	106.5	107.5	107.2	2-4	2-4
Arkansas	103.5	104.3	103.1	103.6	3-3	3-3
Miss. St.	103.5	102.8	103.9	103.4	2-4	2-4
SEC Avg.	111.6	111.1	112.1	111.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Coastal Car.	103.8	104.5	104.5	104.3	5-0	7-0
Appal. St.	102.8	102.1	103.3	102.7	3-0	5-1
Georgia Sou.	93.2	94.1	93.8	93.7	3-2	5-2
Troy	92.3	93.6	92.7	92.9	2-2	4-3
Georgia St.	88.9	88.9	88.7	88.8	2-3	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	102.3	101.6	101.4	101.8	4-1	6-1
Arkansas St.	88.2	88.9	88.0	88.4	1-4	3-5
S. Alabama	85.0	86.2	85.2	85.5	2-2	3-4
Texas St.	80.8	81.2	79.5	80.5	1-4	1-8
UL-Monroe	72.6	72.7	71.4	72.2	0-5	0-8
Sun Avg.	91.0	91.4	90.8	91.1

#	League	Avg
1	SEC	111.6
2	BTen	109.6
3	P12	106.5
4	B12	106.1
5	ACC	105.8
6	AAC	100.4
7	MWC	93.7
8	Ind.	93.1
9	Sun	91.1
10	MAC	87.8
11	CUSA	85.7

PiRate Ratings Guess For Playoffs If Season Ended Today

1. Alabama

2. Notre Dame

3. Ohio St.

4. Clemson

College PiRate Ratings DELAYED

The Reinstatement of the Pac-12, Mountain West, and Mid-American Conferences, as well as Independent UMass, has caused a somewhat lengthy delay in our college football ratings update for this coming week.

Because the PiRate Ratings use an algorithm with a cumulative par rating of 100.0 for the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings, we cannot simply place the original August ratings for the teams that decided in the last week to play football. Doing so would throw the cumulative par well below 100.0.

We cannot simply add the necessary amount needed per team to raise the par values to 100.0 for multiple reasons. First, the amount needed to be added to each of the three ratings would be totally different. Why would a team all of a sudden become .2 points better in the Mean, but .4 points better in the Bias? Actually, some teams might gain points in one rating and lose points in another. That would not be just or accurate.

Second, why would you reward a team with points that is obviously struggling at the present time, while at the same time punish a team that hasn’t played yet by keeping their rating where it was when everybody was 0-0?

When the Big Ten returned, we had to raise some ratings and lower others to keep the overall par at 100.0 for our three different algorithms, and to be quite frank, we had to use some one-time extracurricular data to come to a conclusion.

The need to reincorporate the teams is vital thanks to the Navy-Air Force game this weekend. The Mountain West is looking to return at the end of October, but the Air Force Academy is scheduled to play Navy this Saturday as part of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy series. We cannot issue power ratings for Air Force until we have done the work to reincorporate all the teams that will return to play in 2020.

As of this writing, the Pac-12, Mountain West, and Mid-American Conferences are on board with a late October or early November re-start. UMass plans to attempt to find some teams to play and hopefully get in six games. Old Dominion, New Mexico State, and Connecticut still plan to take off this season, but New Mexico State hopes to play a half-dozen games in the Spring against FCS, Division II, and possibly Connecticut with a remote possibility that they could play UMass.

As an aside to this, keep an eye on New Mexico State basketball coach Chris Jans. The Aggies are not completely sure their basketball team will be able to play in 2020-2021. If the Aggies cancel their basketball season, expect multiple Power Conference schools to move Jans up high on their lists of potential head coaches if they have a vacancy. If you follow our college basketball coverage, you know that we rate coaches by their ability to improve their teams’ offensive efficiency, while weakening their opponents’ offensive efficiencies. In the Winter of 2020, our analysis rated Jans as number one overall among Mid-Major and Low-Major coaches in his ability to improve the talent on his roster above the norm. In 2019, we named Eric Musselman, then of Nevada, as number one and predicted that a Power Conference school would hire him and not regret it. Arkansas was that fortunate school to hire Muss, and Muss has the Razorbacks moving forward toward a top 20 program quickly. It is our opinion that Jans has the competency to do for a Power Conference school what Musselman has done for Arkansas. If NMSU does not play basketball this season, we believe Jans will take another job for 2021-2022.

PiRate Ratings–College Football September 13, 2020

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Week 3	Sep. 18-19
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma St.	Tulsa	16.9	18.1	19.6
Georgia St.	Louisiana	-16.9	-16.7	-17.0
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	11.9	11.7	11.5
Western Ky.	Liberty	11.2	9.4	11.4
Tulane	Navy	-1.6	0.6	-0.5
Duke	Boston College	3.0	3.9	2.4
Baylor	Houston	4.3	5.9	6.0
Marshall	Appalachian St.	-2.0	-1.4	-4.3
Notre Dame	USF	24.3	24.6	26.1
North Carolina	Charlotte	26.5	26.6	27.5
Georgia Tech	UCF	-7.1	-8.2	-9.4
Ga. Southern	Fla. Atlantic	12.9	12.2	14.1
Middle Tenn.	Troy	-1.5	-2.5	-1.7
North Texas	SMU	-21.5	-19.8	-20.1
UL-Monroe	Texas St.	4.5	4.1	4.6
Louisville	Miami (Fla.)	11.2	9.1	10.0
Southern Miss.	La. Tech	3.4	2.5	0.9
NC St.	Wake Forest	-3.3	-4.2	-3.3

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Coastal Carolina	Campbell	22.3
Cincinnati	Austin Peay	27.4
UTSA	S F Austin	12.0
Clemson	Citadel	47.5
Arkansas St.	Cent. Arkansas	11.8
UTEP	Abilene Chr.	-0.7

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Conference
1	Clemson	123.7	124.7	127.6	125.4	ACC
2	L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8	SEC-W
3	Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3	SEC-W
4	Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8	SEC-E
5	Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9	SEC-E
6	Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5	SEC-W
7	Oklahoma	117.1	117.1	117.3	117.2	B12
8	Notre Dame	117.2	116.2	117.2	116.9	ACC
9	Texas	116.3	115.1	116.4	115.9	B12
10	Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8	SEC-W
11	Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3	B12
12	N. Carolina	111.9	112.4	113.3	112.5	ACC
13	Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8	SEC-E
14	Louisville	110.7	111.3	109.7	110.5	ACC
15	Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9	ACC
16	UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8	AAC
17	Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2	SEC-E
18	Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1	AAC
19	S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3	SEC-E
20	Memphis	109.0	107.7	108.2	108.3	AAC
21	Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1	B12
22	Iowa St.	107.9	107.1	107.5	107.5	B12
23	Miss. St.	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1	SEC-W
24	Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4	ACC
25	BYU	106.7	105.2	106.3	106.1	Ind.
26	Louisiana	106.2	105.7	106.2	106.0	SUN-W
27	Florida St.	105.5	103.9	105.4	104.9	ACC
28	Pittsburgh	103.9	105.7	104.1	104.6	ACC
29	T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3	B12
30	Kansas St.	104.2	103.0	104.1	103.8	B12
31	Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7	AAC
32	Ole Miss	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4	SEC-W
33	Appal. St.	102.8	101.9	103.9	102.9	SUN-E
34	Miami (Fla.)	101.5	104.1	101.7	102.4	ACC
35	W. Virginia	101.4	101.5	101.5	101.5	B12
36	Duke	100.6	101.3	100.0	100.6	ACC
37	SMU	100.6	100.1	99.6	100.1	AAC
38	Georgia Tech	100.6	99.9	99.6	100.0	ACC
39	Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5	SEC-E
40	Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5	ACC
41	Wake Forest	98.3	99.4	98.3	98.7	ACC
42	Marshall	98.9	98.5	97.6	98.3	CUSA
43	Texas Tech	97.2	96.0	97.4	96.9	B12
44	Navy	98.1	96.1	96.0	96.7	AAC
45	W. Kentucky	95.9	97.0	96.7	96.5	CUSA
46	Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2	AAC
47	Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1	AAC
48	Arkansas St.	95.7	96.9	95.6	96.1	SUN-W
49	Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5	CUSA
50	Syracuse	94.0	96.0	94.6	94.9	ACC
51	Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3	SEC-W
52	Tulane	94.5	94.7	93.6	94.3	AAC
53	Army	93.2	95.3	93.2	93.9	Ind.
54	USF	95.0	93.7	93.1	93.9	AAC
55	NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6	ACC
56	Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.7	94.0	93.5	SUN-E
57	U A B	92.6	93.4	92.1	92.7	CUSA
58	Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6	SEC-E
59	Coastal Car.	91.8	92.4	92.2	92.1	SUN-E
60	E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9	AAC
61	Southern Miss.	88.5	89.0	87.2	88.2	CUSA
62	Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8	SUN-E
63	Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7	SUN-E
64	La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4	CUSA
65	Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4	Ind.
66	Charlotte	86.4	86.7	86.8	86.7	CUSA
67	Kansas	86.3	86.5	85.0	86.0	B12
68	S. Alabama	85.1	86.4	84.8	85.4	SUN-W
69	Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3	CUSA
70	Middle Tenn.	84.1	85.0	84.1	84.4	CUSA
71	Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9	CUSA
72	UL-Monroe	82.0	82.2	80.4	81.5	SUN-W
73	North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7	CUSA
74	Texas St.	79.0	79.6	77.3	78.6	SUN-W
75	U T S A	77.1	77.0	76.5	76.9	CUSA
76	U T E P	63.4	66.0	63.0	64.1	CUSA

By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
Memphis	109.0	107.7	108.2	108.3
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
SMU	100.6	100.1	99.6	100.1
Navy	98.1	96.1	96.0	96.7
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
Tulane	94.5	94.7	93.6	94.3
USF	95.0	93.7	93.1	93.9
E. Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
AAC Averages	100.6	99.9	99.5	100.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Clemson	123.7	124.7	127.6	125.4
Notre Dame	117.2	116.2	117.2	116.9
N. Carolina	111.9	112.4	113.3	112.5
Louisville	110.7	111.3	109.7	110.5
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
Florida St.	105.5	103.9	105.4	104.9
Pittsburgh	103.9	105.7	104.1	104.6
Miami (Fla.)	101.5	104.1	101.7	102.4
Duke	100.6	101.3	100.0	100.6
Georgia Tech	100.6	99.9	99.6	100.0
Boston Coll.	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
Wake Forest	98.3	99.4	98.3	98.7
Syracuse	94.0	96.0	94.6	94.9
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
ACC Averages	105.1	105.6	105.5	105.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Oklahoma	117.1	117.1	117.3	117.2
Texas	116.3	115.1	116.4	115.9
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
Iowa St.	107.9	107.1	107.5	107.5
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
Kansas St.	104.2	103.0	104.1	103.8
W. Virginia	101.4	101.5	101.5	101.5
Texas Tech	97.2	96.0	97.4	96.9
Kansas	86.3	86.5	85.0	86.0
Big 12 Averages	105.7	105.0	105.6	105.4
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Marshall	98.9	98.5	97.6	98.3
W. Kentucky	95.9	97.0	96.7	96.5
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
U A B	92.6	93.4	92.1	92.7
Southern Miss.	88.5	89.0	87.2	88.2
La. Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
Charlotte	86.4	86.7	86.8	86.7
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
Middle Tenn.	84.1	85.0	84.1	84.4
Fla. Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
U T S A	77.1	77.0	76.5	76.9
U T E P	63.4	66.0	63.0	64.1
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	85.6	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
BYU	106.7	105.2	106.3	106.1
Army	93.2	95.3	93.2	93.9
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
Ind. Averages	95.4	96.5	95.4	95.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
S. Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
Miss. St.	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
Ole Miss	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Appal. St.	102.8	101.9	103.9	102.9
Georgia Sou.	92.7	93.7	94.0	93.5
Coastal Car.	91.8	92.4	92.2	92.1
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg
Louisiana	106.2	105.7	106.2	106.0
Arkansas St.	95.7	96.9	95.6	96.1
S. Alabama	85.1	86.4	84.8	85.4
UL-Monroe	82.0	82.2	80.4	81.5
Texas St.	79.0	79.6	77.3	78.6
SBC Averages	91.0	91.5	90.9	91.2

Conference Ratings

#	League	Avg
1	Southeastern	110.4
2	Big 12	105.4
3	Atlantic Coast	105.4
4	American	100.0
5	Independents	95.8
6	Sun Belt	91.2
7	Conference USA	85.9

This Week’s TV Schedule

Friday, September 18
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN3	Coastal Carolina	Campbell
Saturday, September 19
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	Fox	Baylor	Houston
12:00 PM	ESPN	Oklahoma St.	Tulsa
12:00 PM	ESPN3	Duke	Boston College
12:00 PM	ESPN2	Georgia St.	Louisiana
12:00 PM	ACC	Pittsburgh	Syracuse
12:00 PM	ABC	Tulane	Navy
12:00 PM	ESPNU	Western Kentucky	Liberty
12:00 PM	ESPN+	Cincinnati	Austin Peay
1:30 PM	CBSSN	Marshall	Appalachian St.
2:30 PM	USA	Notre Dame	South Florida
3:00 PM	ABC	Georgia Tech	Central Florida
3:30 PM	ESPN3	North Carolina	Charlotte
3:30 PM	ESPN3	UTSA	S. F. Austin
4:00 PM	ACC	Clemson	The Citadel
4:00 PM	ESPN2	Georgia Southern	Florida Atlantic
4:00 PM	ESPNU	Middle Tennessee	Troy
6:00 PM	CBSSN	North Texas	SMU
7:00 PM	ESPN+	Louisville	Miami (Fla.)
7:30 PM	ABC	Arkansas St.	Central Arkansas
7:30 PM	ESPNU	UL Monroe	Texas St.
8:00 PM	ACC	NC State	Weake Forest
9:00 PM	ESPN3	UTEP	Abilene Christian

Fall 2020 College Football Preseason Ratings

Welcome to the start of the potentially most dysfunctional college football season in the history of the sport.

We release this preliminary preseason power ratings submission for your entertainment purposes only.  We make no claims that our preseason ratings this year will be any more accurate than throwing darts at a wall with the names of the teams affixed in tape.  With each toss of a dart, another team that isn’t taped that well might fall onto the floor and reduce the number of teams playing by one or two or 76.

The PiRates design our power ratings so that the average FBS team rates 100.0.  Above that number, a team is better than average by their rating minus 100 points.  Below that number, a team is weaker than average by 100 points minus their rating.

When there are 100 teams in the sample size, the total number of power ratings must equal 13,000  for the average to be 100.0.  Each time a college team announced they would not field a football squad this fall, reducing the number of teams in the sample, the average had to be recalculated based on the new sample.  The only time the ratings would not change would be if the team cancelling had ratings of 100.0 for the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings.  Of course, no teams met that qualification, so our ratings continually changed until we made it to where we are today with 76 teams scheduled to play football this Fall and 54 teams potentially scheduled to play football in the Spring.

Additionally, most of the 76 teams will play a conference only schedule.  That makes it quite difficult to compare teams in different leagues with no inter-conference games.  It basically makes every week of the projected college season like a new preseason, because only in the preseason do our ratings reflect zero inter-conference action.  Obviously, in any year, the preseason ratings are the least accurate of the entire season.  Thus, we expect our ratings to be poor when they are used to compare a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a team in the Southeastern Conference.  On the bright side, with more conference games now on the schedule, in-season conference ratings should be a bit more accurate later in the year, just like they are in college basketball.

We are issuing our raw preseason ratings today in two forms.  First, we show you the 76-team sample as it is currently configured based on 76 teams continuing to plan to play football in 2020.  Next, we will show you how the season would have previewed had all 130 teams played as regularly planned.

The preseason rating you see will be recalculated before the first games are played, based on the evidence of players opting out and possibly others transferring in from schools that will not be playing.  Obviously, if Trevor Lawrence were to opt out at Clemson, the Tigers would immediately drop by several points in power rating.  And, if somehow Justin Fields was granted immediate eligibility and transferred to Notre Dame, the Irish would move up several points in power rating.  It will be a large task to keep on top of this, and then to monitor rosters during the season—–if there is a season.

Enjoy, if you can.

The New Reality–76 Team PiRate Ratings for Preseason 2020

 

PiRate Rankings 1-76

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Clemson	125.3
2	L S U	123.8
3	Alabama	122.3
4	Georgia	120.8
5	Florida	119.9
6	Auburn	117.5
7	Notre Dame	117.2
8	Oklahoma	117.0
9	Texas A&M	115.8
10	Texas	114.7
11	Oklahoma St.	113.3
12	North Carolina	111.8
13	Kentucky	110.8
14	Iowa St.	110.6
15	Louisville	110.1
16	Virginia Tech	109.9
17	UCF	109.8
18	Tennessee	109.2
19	Memphis	109.1
20	Cincinnati	109.1
21	South Carolina	108.3
22	Baylor	108.1
23	Ole Miss	107.1
24	Kansas St.	107.0
25	Florida St.	107.0
26	Virginia	106.4
27	T C U	104.3
28	Houston	103.7
29	Pittsburgh	103.6
30	Mississippi St.	103.4
31	Appalachian St.	103.2
32	Navy	103.0
33	Louisiana	102.2
34	SMU	101.7
35	BYU	101.3
36	Miami (Fla.)	101.2
37	West Virginia	100.7
38	Duke	100.2
39	Missouri	99.5
40	Boston College	99.5
41	Texas Tech	99.4
42	Wake Forest	98.7
43	Georgia Tech	98.0
44	Western Kentucky	96.7
45	Temple	96.2
46	Tulsa	96.1
47	Georgia Southern	96.0
48	Florida Int’l.	95.5
49	Syracuse	95.4
50	Marshall	95.3
51	Tulane	94.6
52	Arkansas	94.3
53	USF	94.2
54	NC State	93.6
55	U A B	93.4
56	Vanderbilt	92.6
57	Arkansas St.	92.6
58	East Carolina	91.9
59	Southern Miss.	91.3
60	Army	90.8
61	Kansas	89.5
62	Coastal Carolina	88.6
63	Middle Tennessee	87.8
64	Troy	87.8
65	Georgia St.	87.7
66	Louisiana Tech	87.4
67	Liberty	87.4
68	Charlotte	86.4
69	Rice	85.3
70	UL-Monroe	84.3
71	South Alabama	82.6
72	Florida Atlantic	81.9
73	North Texas	78.7
74	Texas St.	77.6
75	U T S A	76.3
76	U T E P	64.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
UCF	109.2	109.6	110.5	109.8
Memphis	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
Cincinnati	109.5	108.3	109.4	109.1
Houston	104.7	103.2	103.2	103.7
Navy	104.4	102.4	102.3	103.0
SMU	102.1	101.5	101.5	101.7
Temple	96.4	97.0	95.3	96.2
Tulsa	97.6	95.7	95.1	96.1
Tulane	94.8	95.0	94.1	94.6
USF	95.3	94.0	93.4	94.2
East Carolina	92.1	92.6	90.9	91.9
AAC Averages	101.5	100.7	100.4	100.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	123.6	124.5	127.8	125.3
Notre Dame	117.5	116.5	117.7	117.2
North Carolina	111.3	111.5	112.5	111.8
Louisville	110.3	110.9	109.1	110.1
Virginia Tech	109.2	109.2	111.3	109.9
Florida St.	107.4	105.8	107.7	107.0
Virginia	106.6	106.1	106.3	106.4
Pittsburgh	102.9	104.7	103.1	103.6
Miami (Fla.)	100.3	103.0	100.3	101.2
Duke	100.3	101.0	99.5	100.2
Boston College	99.6	99.3	99.6	99.5
Wake Forest	98.4	99.6	98.1	98.7
Georgia Tech	98.7	98.0	97.3	98.0
Syracuse	94.3	96.6	95.1	95.4
NC State	93.5	93.7	93.6	93.6
ACC Averages	104.9	105.4	105.3	105.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	116.9	116.9	117.1	117.0
Texas	115.2	113.6	115.3	114.7
Oklahoma St.	113.4	112.8	113.6	113.3
Iowa St.	110.9	110.2	110.7	110.6
Baylor	108.0	108.1	108.2	108.1
Kansas St.	107.4	106.0	107.5	107.0
T C U	105.0	102.8	105.1	104.3
West Virginia	100.6	100.7	100.7	100.7
Texas Tech	99.7	98.5	99.9	99.4
Kansas	89.8	90.0	88.5	89.5
Big 12 Averages	106.7	106.0	106.7	106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	96.0	97.1	97.0	96.7
Florida Int’l.	95.4	95.2	95.8	95.5
Marshall	95.9	95.5	94.6	95.3
U A B	93.3	94.0	93.0	93.4
Southern Miss.	91.1	91.6	91.2	91.3
Middle Tennessee	87.5	88.1	87.8	87.8
Louisiana Tech	86.5	88.0	87.7	87.4
Charlotte	86.2	86.5	86.3	86.4
Rice	86.2	84.2	85.6	85.3
Florida Atlantic	81.3	83.0	81.4	81.9
North Texas	78.1	79.3	78.5	78.7
U T S A	76.6	76.3	75.9	76.3
U T E P	64.0	67.0	63.6	64.9
CUSA Averages	86.0	86.6	86.0	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
BYU	101.9	100.4	101.5	101.3
Army	90.1	92.5	89.8	90.8
Liberty	86.2	89.1	86.8	87.4
Indep. Averages	92.7	94.0	92.7	93.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	121.1	119.4	121.9	120.8
Florida	119.7	119.3	120.8	119.9
Kentucky	110.3	110.5	111.5	110.8
Tennessee	109.1	109.0	109.6	109.2
South Carolina	109.3	107.0	108.7	108.3
Missouri	99.1	99.2	100.3	99.5
Vanderbilt	93.3	92.7	91.8	92.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
L S U	123.2	122.5	125.8	123.8
Alabama	121.4	122.3	123.3	122.3
Auburn	118.0	116.6	117.9	117.5
Texas A&M	115.7	115.8	115.9	115.8
Ole Miss	106.7	106.1	108.4	107.1
Mississippi St.	104.1	102.5	103.8	103.4
Arkansas	94.7	95.8	92.4	94.3
SEC Averages	110.4	109.9	110.9	110.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	103.0	102.1	104.4	103.2
Georgia Southern	95.2	96.2	96.5	96.0
Coastal Carolina	88.3	88.9	88.7	88.6
Troy	87.0	89.0	87.3	87.8
Georgia St.	87.8	87.5	87.7	87.7
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	102.5	101.9	102.3	102.2
Arkansas St.	92.0	94.1	91.6	92.6
UL-Monroe	84.7	84.9	83.2	84.3
South Alabama	82.8	84.1	80.9	82.6
Texas St.	78.0	78.9	76.0	77.6
Sun Averages	90.1	90.7	89.9	90.2

 

Conference Ranking

SEC	110.4
B12	106.5
ACC	105.2
AAC	100.9
Ind	93.2
SUN	90.2
CUSA	86.2

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What Might Have Been!

The original 130 team rankings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Ohio St.	131.5
2	Clemson	126.7
3	L S U	125.2
4	Alabama	123.7
5	Georgia	122.2
6	Penn St.	121.6
7	Wisconsin	121.5
8	Florida	121.3
9	Auburn	118.9
10	Oregon	118.8
11	Notre Dame	118.6
12	Oklahoma	118.4
13	Texas A&M	117.2
14	Texas	116.1
15	U S C	114.9
16	Oklahoma St.	114.7
17	North Carolina	113.2
18	Minnesota	112.9
19	Iowa	112.4
20	Michigan	112.4
21	Kentucky	112.2
22	Iowa St.	112.0
23	Louisville	111.5
24	Virginia Tech	111.3
25	UCF	111.2
26	Tennessee	110.6
27	Memphis	110.5
28	Cincinnati	110.5
29	Indiana	110.0
30	Washington	109.9
31	South Carolina	109.7
32	Baylor	109.5
33	Utah	109.3
34	Ole Miss	108.5
35	Kansas St.	108.4
36	Florida St.	108.4
37	Nebraska	108.0
38	Virginia	107.8
39	California	107.6
40	Arizona St.	107.6
41	Boise St.	107.0
42	Purdue	106.3
43	T C U	105.7
44	Houston	105.1
45	Pittsburgh	105.0
46	Mississippi St.	104.8
47	Washington St.	104.7
48	Appalachian St.	104.6
49	Navy	104.4
50	Northwestern	104.0
51	Illinois	103.9
52	Stanford	103.8
53	Louisiana	103.6
54	SMU	103.1
55	BYU	102.7
56	Michigan St.	102.7
57	Oregon St.	102.6
58	Miami (Fla.)	102.6
59	West Virginia	102.1
60	Duke	101.6
61	U C L A	101.0
62	Missouri	100.9
63	Boston College	100.9
64	Texas Tech	100.8
65	Arizona	100.4
66	Wake Forest	100.1
67	Air Force	100.0
68	Georgia Tech	99.4
69	Western Kentucky	98.1
70	Wyoming	97.9
71	Temple	97.6
72	Tulsa	97.5
73	Colorado	97.4
74	Georgia Southern	97.4
75	Buffalo	97.1
76	Florida Atlantic	96.9
77	Syracuse	96.8
78	Marshall	96.7
79	San Diego St.	96.6
80	Tulane	96.0
81	Arkansas	95.7
82	USF	95.6
83	Ohio	95.1
84	NC State	95.0
85	Rutgers	94.9
86	U A B	94.8
87	Hawaii	94.3
88	Maryland	94.2
89	Vanderbilt	94.0
90	Arkansas St.	94.0
91	Miami (Ohio)	93.9
92	East Carolina	93.3
93	Fresno St.	93.2
94	Utah St.	93.1
95	Central Michigan	93.0
96	Southern Miss.	92.7
97	Ball St.	92.5
98	Army	92.2
99	Colorado St.	91.4
100	Nevada	90.9
101	Kansas	90.9
102	Western Michigan	90.2
103	Coastal Carolina	90.0
104	Kent St.	89.6
105	San Jose St.	89.5
106	Middle Tennessee	89.2
107	Troy	89.2
108	Georgia St.	89.1
109	Louisiana Tech	88.8
110	Liberty	88.8
111	Toledo	88.7
112	Charlotte	87.8
113	Rice	86.7
114	UL-Monroe	85.7
115	South Alabama	84.0
116	U N L V	83.7
117	Northern Illinois	83.5
118	New Mexico	83.4
119	Florida Int’l.	83.3
120	Eastern Michigan	83.1
121	Old Dominion	81.7
122	Connecticut	81.4
123	North Texas	80.1
124	Texas St.	79.0
125	U T S A	77.7
126	New Mexico St.	76.5
127	Bowling Green	73.6
128	Akron	73.3
129	U T E P	66.3
130	UMass	65.7

 

Justin Fields, we feel for you, sir.  This looked like the year your Buckeyes were the class of college football, but we’ll never know what might have been.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Update

Welcome back to the PiRate Ship.  We hope we have now plugged all the leaks onboard, and our vessel is seaworthy for the potential 9-month long, two-part football season.

As of this morning, 76 FBS football teams plan to play football in the Fall, and 54 FBS football teams hope to play in the Spring.

After working many hours more than in a typical season, the Bucs onboard our PiRate Ship have finally calculated the ratings for all 130 teams.

There is a fly in the ointment here.  Our annual ratings are based on a par score of 100.0.  In other words, if you total the ratings for the 130 teams, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings should each total to 13,000.  How can the ratings adjust to par if 54 teams play no games every week until at least February, while 76 teams do play?  Should we then adjust our ratings so that the 76 teams playing total to 7,600?  Doing so, would require changing all the ratings, so that one group totaled 7,600 and another group totaled 5,400.

Ah, but there’s more to this than meets the eyes.  Most of these teams will play a conference only schedule.  How can a computer algorithm properly compare a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a team in the Southeastern Conference if there are no inter-conference games?

For many years, Major League Baseball had no inter-league play.  The best team in the American League and the best team in the National League had no common opponents.  The 1954 New York Giants won 13 fewer games than the 1954 Cleveland Indians.  The baseball media believed this World Series could be over in the minimum four games.  They were 100% correct that it took just four games to decide the Series, but the wrong team won the four games.  Other than the Yankees and White Sox, the rest of the AL was about as weak as it has ever been in a non-World War season.   The NL was six-deep in quality that year, and the 6th place St. Louis Cardinals were talented enough to be a first division team in the AL.

With 16 total teams, it may be somewhat possible to compare any eight with any other eight when the two pairs of  eight never play.  That is not possible with 130 or 76 or 54 teams.  Our ratings may need to be adjusted so that each conference averages 100.0.  But, then where would that leave Brigham Young, Army, and Liberty?  These three Independents plan to play some number of games.  How can we possibly make these three teams total 300.0 and then play games against other teams in leagues that average 100.0?

That is where we are at the present time.  Our conclusion today, thanks to the evil Covid-19, Corona, is that we will release separate preseason ratings, three different ways.

Our first set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you all 130 teams rated just like Covid never existed.

Our second set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you the 76 teams playing this Fall.  If any of the remaining 54 teams actually play in the Spring, we will be here to rate those teams the best way we know how.

Our third set of PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings will show you the rating of teams within their own conference sampling.

Here’s an example, using a rating for State U.

Their normal preseason ratings might be

PiRate: 109.7

Mean: 108.9

Bias: 110.1

Let’s say State U plays in one of the 76 teams that plan to play this Fall.  After removing the ratings of the 54 teams not playing this fall, State U’s preseason ratings will no doubt change, because the exact average of those 54 teams will not be 100.0.  Let’s say that the 54 teams opting out due to Corona average 97.4.  The average of the remaining 76 teams is now 101.8.  Reducing that average to 100.0 might now adjust State U’s ratings to:

PiRate: 107.7

Mean:  106.9

Bias: 108.1

Let’s say that State U plays in the ACC, which will now have Notre Dame playing a full conference schedule this year.  The 15-team league will need to sum up to 1500.0 in all three ratings.  Normally, the ACC might have begun the preseason with a conference average of 110.0, or basically 10-points stronger than an average team.  Now State U’s ratings against a closed league of 15 ACC teams would have to be adjusted to:

PiRate: 99.7

Mean: 99.0

Bias: 100.1

So what ratings would we go with in this unique scenario?  We can submit the regular ratings before the first game is ever played, because nothing would be different in this regard.  Nobody has played a game, so the preseason ratings would be the same.  Definitely, we realize that with limited or no Spring Practice and with assumed 2-deep Depth Charts considerably less accurate than in past years, these ratings cannot be as accurate as past seasons.

If we wait until all 76 teams’ schedules are in place and then adjust the ratings so that every team will be rated on the same scale, then what happens when on Tuesday of a game week, one team has to quarantine and schedule somebody not rated on the same scale?  For instance, let’s say Florida State is scheduled to play North Carolina State, and the Wolf Pack has to cancel due to 20 positive cases.  What if at the same time Florida’s scheduled game with Vanderbilt is also postponed, because the Commodores must cancel.  Might a Florida State versus Florida game be scheduled on the quick?

Our final conclusion is to go with a 76-team ratings’ release that sum as close to 7600 for each rating and then to go with a different 54-team ratings’ release in the Spring, assuming the Spring actually does feature those 54 teams.

Monday afternoon Eastern Time, we will reveal our raw preseason ratings for the entire 130 teams and then separate ratings for the 76-team field, as well as ratings for teams by each conference.  We will then go with the 76-team format for the Fall season.

There will be no conference previews.  We will release ratings and pointspreads for weekly games, hoping that we can keep up with whatever alterations are made to the schedule.  We are sailing into the Corona Triangle this year.  Let’s hope we can get through it to the other side.

Note: In our few hours of spare time, we have been working on a tabletop football game with NFL teams and with college teams.  If you remember the old Avalon Hill/Sports Illustrated games that once existed, our games will be similar but different.  If we ever determine them to be marketable, you will not need the specialized 10-39 dice used by AH/SI.  Regular, 6-sided dice will work.  Hopefully, we will have the first set available to be purchased at a ridiculously cheap price with the chance to purchase future sets at additionally ridiculously cheap prices.  By sending out the charts in PDF form for you to print, we can sell the game for less than $10.  That is if we ever get any of the sets finished.  We have been working on three different sets–a 32-team Best of NFL by franchise from 2000 to 2019; the same best of for each SEC team between 2000 & 2019; and the best of for each Big Ten team between 2000 & 2019.  In the works in the future will be best of teams from each Major Conference between 2000 & 2019, as well as the best of NFL (and AFL) from 1960 to 1979, and from 1940 to 1959.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 12-13, 2019

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Power Conferences and Top 25 Teams

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Clemson	Virginia	-6.6
North Carolina	Louisville	12.1
North Carolina St.	Pittsburgh	11.8
Notre Dame	Boston College	6.5
Florida St.	Duke	-8
Miami (Fla.)	Wake Forest	9.7
Syracuse	Georgia Tech	8.7
Temple	South Florida	9.6
SMU	Tulsa	5.8
Houston	Wichita St.	11.2
Cincinnati	Connecticut	9.8
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	9.3
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	6.9
Texas	Texas Tech	-2.1
Oklahoma	TCU	4.2
Baylor	Kansas	-4.4
Georgetown	Providence	2.0
Marquette	Seton Hall	5.9
St. John’s	DePaul	9.8
Minnesota	Rutgers	6.0
Iowa	Ohio St.	1.5
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-12.0
Air Force	San Diego St.	-7.8
Colorado St.	New Mexico	-1.3
Wyoming	Utah St.	-12.1
Fresno St.	Nevada	-3.5
Stanford	Arizona St.	-4.0
Utah	Washington St.	6.9
Colorado	Washington	0.5
California	Arizona	-8.7
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	4.7
South Carolina	Missouri	2.7
Alabama	Texas A&M	5.8
Auburn	Georgia	12.5
Florida	Tennessee	-2.8
Arkansas	LSU	0.9
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	11.8
San Francisco	Gonzaga	-8.8

 

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Xavier	Butler	-1.4
Creighton	Villanova	1.3
Central Florida	East Carolina	17.6
Penn St.	Michigan St.	-9.0
Tulane	Memphis	-8.6
Michigan	Northwestern	11.0
Oregon	USC	6.2
Oregon St.	UCLA	2.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Thank yous go out to Stephanie in Orlando, Florida, and Brad in Las Vegas for both recommending that we include an alphabetical listing as well as ranking from 1-353 of all the D1 teams.  The alphabetical listing will follow the ratings by conference.

By the way, we believe this is the same Stephanie that first recommended the addition of alternating colors so she could better see the spreads on her iPhone.

If you have requests to make our site’s appearance look easier to read, please contact us through our dormant old website: https://piratings.webs.com/contactus.htm

Rk	Team	PiRate
1	Duke	123.8
2	Gonzaga	120.3
3	Virginia	119.9
4	Michigan St.	119.4
5	North Carolina	119.2
6	Tennessee	118.1
7	Virginia Tech	116.3
8	Michigan	116.1
9	Kansas	115.9
10	Texas Tech	115.5
11	Auburn	114.9
12	Nevada	114.5
13	Iowa St.	114.3
14	Kentucky	114.2
15	Nebraska	114.1
16	Wisconsin	114.1
17	North Carolina St.	114.0
18	Buffalo	113.3
19	Purdue	113.1
20	Oklahoma	112.9
21	Florida St.	112.8
22	Mississippi St.	112.4
23	Ohio St.	112.3
24	Florida	112.3
25	Indiana	112.3
26	Villanova	112.2
27	Maryland	112.2
28	Cincinnati	112.1
29	TCU	111.7
30	Marquette	111.6
31	Syracuse	111.4
32	Houston	111.1
33	Texas	110.9
34	Iowa	110.8
35	Louisville	110.6
36	Creighton	110.5
37	St. John’s	110.4
38	Clemson	110.3
39	Mississippi	110.2
40	Central Florida	110.1
41	Wofford	110.1
42	Saint Mary’s	110.1
43	Butler	109.8
44	LSU	109.6
45	Arizona St.	109.0
46	San Francisco	109.0
47	Oregon	108.8
48	Seton Hall	108.7
49	Kansas St.	108.5
50	Baylor	108.5
51	Utah St.	108.4
52	West Virginia	108.4
53	Arizona	108.3
54	Washington	108.2
55	Northwestern	108.1
56	Lipscomb	108.0
57	Fresno St.	108.0
58	Miami (Fla)	107.9
59	Alabama	107.8
60	Murray St.	107.7
61	Virginia Commonwealth	107.7
62	Arkansas	107.5
63	Penn St.	107.4
64	Temple	107.4
65	Minnesota	107.2
66	Dayton	107.0
67	UCLA	106.8
68	Ball St.	106.8
69	Liberty	106.7
70	East Tennessee St.	106.7
71	Notre Dame	106.4
72	Toledo	106.4
73	Providence	106.4
74	South Dakota St.	106.2
75	Oregon St.	106.2
76	Hofstra	106.2
77	Vermont	105.9
78	Vanderbilt	105.9
79	Xavier	105.9
80	New Mexico St.	105.8
81	Colorado	105.7
82	Georgia Tech	105.7
83	USC	105.6
84	BYU	105.4
85	Georgetown	105.4
86	SMU	105.4
87	Georgia	105.4
88	Missouri	105.3
89	Western Kentucky	105.3
90	Connecticut	105.3
91	Belmont	105.3
92	Pittsburgh	105.2
93	Davidson	105.2
94	Loyola Chi	105.2
95	Yale	105.2
96	Texas A&M	105.0
97	Oklahoma St.	105.0
98	South Carolina	105.0
99	Georgia St.	104.9
100	Furman	104.9
101	Old Dominion	104.9
102	San Diego	104.8
103	Rhode Island	104.8
104	Memphis	104.7
105	Rutgers	104.7
106	Illinois	104.4
107	Saint Louis	104.4
108	Harvard	104.4
109	Northern Kentucky	104.4
110	Grand Canyon	104.2
111	Akron	104.1
112	UNC Greensboro	103.9
113	Penn	103.8
114	Northeastern	103.7
115	UC Irvine	103.7
116	San Diego St.	103.7
117	Texas St.	103.7
118	North Texas	103.6
119	DePaul	103.6
120	Georgia Southern	103.5
121	Charleston	103.5
122	Austin Peay	103.4
123	Boston College	103.4
124	Boise St.	103.4
125	Montana	103.4
126	Wichita St.	102.9
127	Tulsa	102.6
128	Brown	102.4
129	Southern Illinois	102.4
130	UC Santa Barbara	102.2
131	Jacksonville St.	102.2
132	Utah Valley	102.2
133	Marshall	102.1
134	George Mason	102.1
135	Utah	102.1
136	Stanford	102.0
137	Drake	102.0
138	Louisiana Tech	102.0
139	Northern Illinois	101.9
140	Radford	101.9
141	Loyola Marymount	101.9
142	UNLV	101.5
143	Lehigh	101.4
144	Winthrop	101.3
145	Bucknell	101.3
146	Stony Brook	101.2
147	Gardner Webb	101.1
148	Rider	101.0
149	Louisiana Monroe	101.0
150	Bowling Green	100.9
151	St. Bonaventure	100.8
152	South Florida	100.8
153	Wake Forest	100.7
154	Massachusetts	100.7
155	New Mexico	100.6
156	Purdue Fort Wayne	100.6
157	Valparaiso	100.6
158	Kent St.	100.5
159	Central Michigan	100.5
160	Northern Colorado	100.4
161	Wright St.	100.4
162	Seattle	100.4
163	Louisiana	100.3
164	NJIT	100.2
165	Southern Miss	100.2
166	Holy Cross	100.1
167	Samford	100.0
168	Cal St. Fullerton	99.7
169	Saint Joseph’s	99.6
170	Coastal Carolina	99.6
171	Colgate	99.6
172	Evansville	99.5
173	Princeton	99.5
174	Weber St.	99.5
175	Mercer	99.5
176	UAB	99.4
177	Duquesne	99.4
178	Abilene Christian	99.3
179	Richmond	99.2
180	Illinois St.	99.1
181	Miami (O)	99.0
182	Pacific	98.8
183	IUPUI	98.7
184	Cal St. Bakersfield	98.7
185	Green Bay	98.7
186	Texas Southern	98.7
187	Missouri St.	98.6
188	Indiana St.	98.5
189	Ohio	98.3
190	Pepperdine	98.3
191	Omaha	98.2
192	American	98.2
193	Hawaii	98.2
194	Washington St.	98.2
195	William & Mary	98.1
196	Bradley	98.0
197	Eastern Michigan	97.9
198	Hartford	97.9
199	North Dakota St.	97.8
200	Troy	97.7
201	The Citadel	97.6
202	Northern Iowa	97.5
203	North Florida	97.5
204	Long Beach St.	97.5
205	Dartmouth	97.5
206	Florida Atlantic	97.4
207	UTSA	97.4
208	Western Michigan	97.4
209	Iona	97.2
210	South Dakota	97.2
211	South Alabama	97.2
212	Appalachian St.	97.1
213	Fordham	97.1
214	Boston U	97.0
215	Santa Clara	97.0
216	Stephen F. Austin	96.9
217	Campbell	96.8
218	Illinois Chicago	96.8
219	Canisius	96.8
220	Colorado St.	96.8
221	La Salle	96.7
222	Hampton	96.7
223	High Point	96.7
224	Columbia	96.6
225	California	96.6
226	Delaware	96.6
227	Lamar	96.4
228	Wagner	96.3
229	Florida Int’l.	96.3
230	Cal Baptist	96.3
231	Detroit	96.2
232	UNC Wilmington	96.2
233	Presbyterian	96.2
234	Oakland	96.2
235	Marist	96.1
236	Maryland-Balt. Co.	96.0
237	Fairleigh Dickinson	96.0
238	Fairfield	95.9
239	Little Rock	95.8
240	St. Francis PA	95.8
241	Sam Houston St.	95.8
242	UC Davis	95.7
243	George Washington	95.6
244	Quinnipiac	95.6
245	East Carolina	95.5
246	Cornell	95.5
247	Eastern Kentucky	95.4
248	UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3
249	Army	95.2
250	UT Arlington	95.2
251	Long Island	95.2
252	Charleston Southern	95.2
253	Idaho St.	95.2
254	James Madison	95.1
255	Drexel	95.1
256	UMKC	95.0
257	UTEP	95.0
258	Arkansas St.	94.9
259	Robert Morris	94.9
260	UMass Lowell	94.8
261	Morehead St.	94.6
262	North Dakota	94.6
263	Florida Gulf Coast	94.5
264	Portland St.	94.5
265	Sacramento St.	94.4
266	Siena	94.4
267	Sacred Heart	94.3
268	Jacksonville	94.3
269	Towson	94.3
270	Montana St.	94.2
271	St. Francis BKN	94.1
272	Houston Baptist	94.1
273	North Carolina Central	93.9
274	Cleveland St.	93.9
275	Eastern Washington	93.9
276	Norfolk St.	93.9
277	Longwood	93.6
278	Nicholls St.	93.6
279	Chattanooga	93.6
280	Tulane	93.6
281	Albany	93.6
282	Middle Tennessee	93.5
283	Texas A&M CC	93.4
284	Air Force	93.4
285	Saint Peter’s	93.4
286	Niagara	93.4
287	Southern Utah	93.3
288	Prairie View A&M	93.3
289	Western Illinois	93.3
290	New Orleans	93.1
291	Milwaukee	93.1
292	Southeast Missouri St.	93.1
293	Central Connecticut	93.0
294	Monmouth	93.0
295	Oral Roberts	92.9
296	Lafayette	92.9
297	Howard	92.9
298	Eastern Illinois	92.8
299	UC Riverside	92.8
300	Wyoming	92.8
301	Central Arkansas	92.8
302	Rice	92.7
303	Tennessee St.	92.5
304	Navy	92.4
305	Loyola MD	92.3
306	Youngstown St.	92.3
307	McNeese St.	92.3
308	Grambling	92.2
309	Northern Arizona	91.9
310	Tennessee Martin	91.9
311	North Carolina A&T	91.9
312	Portland	91.9
313	Charlotte	91.8
314	Western Carolina	91.8
315	Cal St. Northridge	91.6
316	Bethune Cookman	91.6
317	Denver	91.5
318	Cal Poly	91.4
319	Alabama St.	91.1
320	Southeastern Louisiana	91.1
321	Binghamton	90.8
322	Idaho	90.7
323	USC Upstate	90.6
324	Manhattan	90.2
325	Tennessee Tech	90.2
326	Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.0
327	Morgan St.	89.9
328	SIU Edwardsville	89.9
329	Bryant	89.9
330	Elon	89.7
331	VMI	89.6
332	Mount St. Mary’s	89.6
333	Maine	89.4
334	Florida A&M	89.1
335	San Jose St.	88.9
336	Jackson St.	88.9
337	North Alabama	88.9
338	South Carolina St.	88.6
339	New Hampshire	88.4
340	Southern	87.8
341	Incarnate Word	87.1
342	Stetson	86.8
343	Northwestern St.	86.1
344	Kennesaw St.	85.9
345	Alcorn St.	85.8
346	UNC Asheville	84.9
347	Alabama A&M	84.8
348	Coppin St.	84.8
349	Savannah St.	84.1
350	Mississippi Valley St.	83.5
351	Maryland Eastern Shore	82.7
352	Chicago St.	82.3
353	Delaware St.	81.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

America East
Vermont	105.9
Stony Brook	101.2
Hartford	97.9
Maryland-Balt. Co.	96.0
UMass Lowell	94.8
Albany	93.6
Binghamton	90.8
Maine	89.4
New Hampshire	88.4
American Athletic
Cincinnati	112.1
Houston	111.1
Central Florida	110.1
Temple	107.4
SMU	105.4
Connecticut	105.3
Memphis	104.7
Wichita St.	102.9
Tulsa	102.6
South Florida	100.8
East Carolina	95.5
Tulane	93.6
Atlantic 10
Virginia Commonwealth	107.7
Dayton	107.0
Davidson	105.2
Rhode Island	104.8
Saint Louis	104.4
George Mason	102.1
St. Bonaventure	100.8
Massachusetts	100.7
Saint Joseph’s	99.6
Duquesne	99.4
Richmond	99.2
Fordham	97.1
La Salle	96.7
George Washington	95.6
Atlantic Coast
Duke	123.8
Virginia	119.9
North Carolina	119.2
Virginia Tech	116.3
North Carolina St.	114.0
Florida St.	112.8
Syracuse	111.4
Louisville	110.6
Clemson	110.3
Miami (Fla)	107.9
Notre Dame	106.4
Georgia Tech	105.7
Pittsburgh	105.2
Boston College	103.4
Wake Forest	100.7
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb	108.0
Liberty	106.7
NJIT	100.2
North Florida	97.5
Florida Gulf Coast	94.5
Jacksonville	94.3
North Alabama	88.9
Stetson	86.8
Kennesaw St.	85.9
Big 12
Kansas	115.9
Texas Tech	115.5
Iowa St.	114.3
Oklahoma	112.9
TCU	111.7
Texas	110.9
Kansas St.	108.5
Baylor	108.5
West Virginia	108.4
Oklahoma St.	105.0
Big East
Villanova	112.2
Marquette	111.6
Creighton	110.5
St. John’s	110.4
Butler	109.8
Seton Hall	108.7
Providence	106.4
Xavier	105.9
Georgetown	105.4
DePaul	103.6
Big Sky
Montana	103.4
Northern Colorado	100.4
Weber St.	99.5
Idaho St.	95.2
Portland St.	94.5
Sacramento St.	94.4
Montana St.	94.2
Eastern Washington	93.9
Southern Utah	93.3
Northern Arizona	91.9
Idaho	90.7
Big South
Radford	101.9
Winthrop	101.3
Gardner Webb	101.1
Campbell	96.8
Hampton	96.7
High Point	96.7
Presbyterian	96.2
Charleston Southern	95.2
Longwood	93.6
USC Upstate	90.6
UNC Asheville	84.9
Big Ten
Michigan St.	119.4
Michigan	116.1
Nebraska	114.1
Wisconsin	114.1
Purdue	113.1
Ohio St.	112.3
Indiana	112.3
Maryland	112.2
Iowa	110.8
Northwestern	108.1
Penn St.	107.4
Minnesota	107.2
Rutgers	104.7
Illinois	104.4
Big West
UC Irvine	103.7
UC Santa Barbara	102.2
Cal St. Fullerton	99.7
Hawaii	98.2
Long Beach St.	97.5
UC Davis	95.7
UC Riverside	92.8
Cal St. Northridge	91.6
Cal Poly	91.4
Colonial Athletic
Hofstra	106.2
Northeastern	103.7
Charleston	103.5
William & Mary	98.1
Delaware	96.6
UNC Wilmington	96.2
James Madison	95.1
Drexel	95.1
Towson	94.3
Elon	89.7
Conference USA
Western Kentucky	105.3
Old Dominion	104.9
North Texas	103.6
Marshall	102.1
Louisiana Tech	102.0
Southern Miss	100.2
UAB	99.4
Florida Atlantic	97.4
UTSA	97.4
Florida Int’l.	96.3
UTEP	95.0
Middle Tennessee	93.5
Rice	92.7
Charlotte	91.8
Horizon
Northern Kentucky	104.4
Wright St.	100.4
IUPUI	98.7
Green Bay	98.7
Illinois Chicago	96.8
Detroit	96.2
Oakland	96.2
Cleveland St.	93.9
Milwaukee	93.1
Youngstown St.	92.3
Ivy
Yale	105.2
Harvard	104.4
Penn	103.8
Brown	102.4
Princeton	99.5
Dartmouth	97.5
Columbia	96.6
Cornell	95.5
Metro Atlantic
Rider	101.0
Iona	97.2
Canisius	96.8
Marist	96.1
Fairfield	95.9
Quinnipiac	95.6
Siena	94.4
Saint Peter’s	93.4
Niagara	93.4
Monmouth	93.0
Manhattan	90.2
Mid-American
Buffalo	113.3
Ball St.	106.8
Toledo	106.4
Akron	104.1
Northern Illinois	101.9
Bowling Green	100.9
Kent St.	100.5
Central Michigan	100.5
Miami (O)	99.0
Ohio	98.3
Eastern Michigan	97.9
Western Michigan	97.4
Mideastern Athletic
North Carolina Central	93.9
Norfolk St.	93.9
Howard	92.9
North Carolina A&T	91.9
Bethune Cookman	91.6
Morgan St.	89.9
Florida A&M	89.1
South Carolina St.	88.6
Coppin St.	84.8
Savannah St.	84.1
Maryland Eastern Shore	82.7
Delaware St.	81.3
Missouri Valley
Loyola Chi	105.2
Southern Illinois	102.4
Drake	102.0
Valparaiso	100.6
Evansville	99.5
Illinois St.	99.1
Missouri St.	98.6
Indiana St.	98.5
Bradley	98.0
Northern Iowa	97.5
Mountain West
Nevada	114.5
Utah St.	108.4
Fresno St.	108.0
San Diego St.	103.7
Boise St.	103.4
UNLV	101.5
New Mexico	100.6
Colorado St.	96.8
Air Force	93.4
Wyoming	92.8
San Jose St.	88.9
Northeast
Wagner	96.3
Fairleigh Dickinson	96.0
St. Francis PA	95.8
Long Island	95.2
Robert Morris	94.9
Sacred Heart	94.3
St. Francis BKN	94.1
Central Connecticut	93.0
Bryant	89.9
Mount St. Mary’s	89.6
Ohio Valley
Murray St.	107.7
Belmont	105.3
Austin Peay	103.4
Jacksonville St.	102.2
Eastern Kentucky	95.4
Morehead St.	94.6
Southeast Missouri St.	93.1
Eastern Illinois	92.8
Tennessee St.	92.5
Tennessee Martin	91.9
Tennessee Tech	90.2
SIU Edwardsville	89.9
Pac-12
Arizona St.	109.0
Oregon	108.8
Arizona	108.3
Washington	108.2
UCLA	106.8
Oregon St.	106.2
Colorado	105.7
USC	105.6
Utah	102.1
Stanford	102.0
Washington St.	98.2
California	96.6
Patriot
Lehigh	101.4
Bucknell	101.3
Holy Cross	100.1
Colgate	99.6
American	98.2
Boston U	97.0
Army	95.2
Lafayette	92.9
Navy	92.4
Loyola MD	92.3
Southeastern
Tennessee	118.1
Auburn	114.9
Kentucky	114.2
Mississippi St.	112.4
Florida	112.3
Mississippi	110.2
LSU	109.6
Alabama	107.8
Arkansas	107.5
Vanderbilt	105.9
Georgia	105.4
Missouri	105.3
Texas A&M	105.0
South Carolina	105.0
Southern
Wofford	110.1
East Tennessee St.	106.7
Furman	104.9
UNC Greensboro	103.9
Samford	100.0
Mercer	99.5
The Citadel	97.6
Chattanooga	93.6
Western Carolina	91.8
VMI	89.6
Southland
Abilene Christian	99.3
Stephen F. Austin	96.9
Lamar	96.4
Sam Houston St.	95.8
Houston Baptist	94.1
Nicholls St.	93.6
Texas A&M CC	93.4
New Orleans	93.1
Central Arkansas	92.8
McNeese St.	92.3
Southeastern Louisiana	91.1
Incarnate Word	87.1
Northwestern St.	86.1
Southwestern Athletic
Texas Southern	98.7
Prairie View A&M	93.3
Grambling	92.2
Alabama St.	91.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.0
Jackson St.	88.9
Southern	87.8
Alcorn St.	85.8
Alabama A&M	84.8
Mississippi Valley St.	83.5
Summit
South Dakota St.	106.2
Purdue Fort Wayne	100.6
Omaha	98.2
North Dakota St.	97.8
South Dakota	97.2
North Dakota	94.6
Western Illinois	93.3
Oral Roberts	92.9
Denver	91.5
Sun Belt
Georgia St.	104.9
Texas St.	103.7
Georgia Southern	103.5
Louisiana Monroe	101.0
Louisiana	100.3
Coastal Carolina	99.6
Troy	97.7
South Alabama	97.2
Appalachian St.	97.1
Little Rock	95.8
UT Arlington	95.2
Arkansas St.	94.9
West Coast
Gonzaga	120.3
Saint Mary’s	110.1
San Francisco	109.0
BYU	105.4
San Diego	104.8
Loyola Marymount	101.9
Pacific	98.8
Pepperdine	98.3
Santa Clara	97.0
Portland	91.9
Western Athletic
New Mexico St.	105.8
Grand Canyon	104.2
Utah Valley	102.2
Seattle	100.4
Cal St. Bakersfield	98.7
Cal Baptist	96.3
UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3
UMKC	95.0
Chicago St.	82.3

 

Alphabetical Ratings

Team	Rating
Abilene Christian	99.3
Air Force	93.4
Akron	104.1
Alabama	107.8
Alabama A&M	84.8
Alabama St.	91.1
Albany	93.6
Alcorn St.	85.8
American	98.2
Appalachian St.	97.1
Arizona	108.3
Arizona St.	109.0
Arkansas	107.5
Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.0
Arkansas St.	94.9
Army	95.2
Auburn	114.9
Austin Peay	103.4
Ball St.	106.8
Baylor	108.5
Belmont	105.3
Bethune Cookman	91.6
Binghamton	90.8
Boise St.	103.4
Boston College	103.4
Boston U	97.0
Bowling Green	100.9
Bradley	98.0
Brown	102.4
Bryant	89.9
Bucknell	101.3
Buffalo	113.3
Butler	109.8
BYU	105.4
Cal Baptist	96.3
Cal Poly	91.4
Cal St. Bakersfield	98.7
Cal St. Fullerton	99.7
Cal St. Northridge	91.6
California	96.6
Campbell	96.8
Canisius	96.8
Central Arkansas	92.8
Central Connecticut	93.0
Central Florida	110.1
Central Michigan	100.5
Charleston	103.5
Charleston Southern	95.2
Charlotte	91.8
Chattanooga	93.6
Chicago St.	82.3
Cincinnati	112.1
Clemson	110.3
Cleveland St.	93.9
Coastal Carolina	99.6
Colgate	99.6
Colorado	105.7
Colorado St.	96.8
Columbia	96.6
Connecticut	105.3
Coppin St.	84.8
Cornell	95.5
Creighton	110.5
Dartmouth	97.5
Davidson	105.2
Dayton	107.0
Delaware	96.6
Delaware St.	81.3
Denver	91.5
DePaul	103.6
Detroit	96.2
Drake	102.0
Drexel	95.1
Duke	123.8
Duquesne	99.4
East Carolina	95.5
East Tennessee St.	106.7
Eastern Illinois	92.8
Eastern Kentucky	95.4
Eastern Michigan	97.9
Eastern Washington	93.9
Elon	89.7
Evansville	99.5
Fairfield	95.9
Fairleigh Dickinson	96.0
Florida	112.3
Florida A&M	89.1
Florida Atlantic	97.4
Florida Gulf Coast	94.5
Florida Int’l.	96.3
Florida St.	112.8
Fordham	97.1
Fresno St.	108.0
Furman	104.9
Gardner Webb	101.1
George Mason	102.1
George Washington	95.6
Georgetown	105.4
Georgia	105.4
Georgia Southern	103.5
Georgia St.	104.9
Georgia Tech	105.7
Gonzaga	120.3
Grambling	92.2
Grand Canyon	104.2
Green Bay	98.7
Hampton	96.7
Hartford	97.9
Harvard	104.4
Hawaii	98.2
High Point	96.7
Hofstra	106.2
Holy Cross	100.1
Houston	111.1
Houston Baptist	94.1
Howard	92.9
Idaho	90.7
Idaho St.	95.2
Illinois	104.4
Illinois Chicago	96.8
Illinois St.	99.1
Incarnate Word	87.1
Indiana	112.3
Indiana St.	98.5
Iona	97.2
Iowa	110.8
Iowa St.	114.3
IUPUI	98.7
Jackson St.	88.9
Jacksonville	94.3
Jacksonville St.	102.2
James Madison	95.1
Kansas	115.9
Kansas St.	108.5
Kennesaw St.	85.9
Kent St.	100.5
Kentucky	114.2
La Salle	96.7
Lafayette	92.9
Lamar	96.4
Lehigh	101.4
Liberty	106.7
Lipscomb	108.0
Little Rock	95.8
Long Beach St.	97.5
Long Island	95.2
Longwood	93.6
Louisiana	100.3
Louisiana Monroe	101.0
Louisiana Tech	102.0
Louisville	110.6
Loyola Chi	105.2
Loyola Marymount	101.9
Loyola MD	92.3
LSU	109.6
Maine	89.4
Manhattan	90.2
Marist	96.1
Marquette	111.6
Marshall	102.1
Maryland	112.2
Maryland Eastern Shore	82.7
Maryland-Balt. Co.	96.0
Massachusetts	100.7
McNeese St.	92.3
Memphis	104.7
Mercer	99.5
Miami (Fla)	107.9
Miami (O)	99.0
Michigan	116.1
Michigan St.	119.4
Middle Tennessee	93.5
Milwaukee	93.1
Minnesota	107.2
Mississippi	110.2
Mississippi St.	112.4
Mississippi Valley St.	83.5
Missouri	105.3
Missouri St.	98.6
Monmouth	93.0
Montana	103.4
Montana St.	94.2
Morehead St.	94.6
Morgan St.	89.9
Mount St. Mary’s	89.6
Murray St.	107.7
Navy	92.4
Nebraska	114.1
Nevada	114.5
New Hampshire	88.4
New Mexico	100.6
New Mexico St.	105.8
New Orleans	93.1
Niagara	93.4
Nicholls St.	93.6
NJIT	100.2
Norfolk St.	93.9
North Alabama	88.9
North Carolina	119.2
North Carolina A&T	91.9
North Carolina Central	93.9
North Carolina St.	114.0
North Dakota	94.6
North Dakota St.	97.8
North Florida	97.5
North Texas	103.6
Northeastern	103.7
Northern Arizona	91.9
Northern Colorado	100.4
Northern Illinois	101.9
Northern Iowa	97.5
Northern Kentucky	104.4
Northwestern	108.1
Northwestern St.	86.1
Notre Dame	106.4
Oakland	96.2
Ohio	98.3
Ohio St.	112.3
Oklahoma	112.9
Oklahoma St.	105.0
Old Dominion	104.9
Omaha	98.2
Oral Roberts	92.9
Oregon	108.8
Oregon St.	106.2
Pacific	98.8
Penn	103.8
Penn St.	107.4
Pepperdine	98.3
Pittsburgh	105.2
Portland	91.9
Portland St.	94.5
Prairie View A&M	93.3
Presbyterian	96.2
Princeton	99.5
Providence	106.4
Purdue	113.1
Purdue Fort Wayne	100.6
Quinnipiac	95.6
Radford	101.9
Rhode Island	104.8
Rice	92.7
Richmond	99.2
Rider	101.0
Robert Morris	94.9
Rutgers	104.7
Sacramento St.	94.4
Sacred Heart	94.3
Saint Joseph’s	99.6
Saint Louis	104.4
Saint Mary’s	110.1
Saint Peter’s	93.4
Sam Houston St.	95.8
Samford	100.0
San Diego	104.8
San Diego St.	103.7
San Francisco	109.0
San Jose St.	88.9
Santa Clara	97.0
Savannah St.	84.1
Seattle	100.4
Seton Hall	108.7
Siena	94.4
SIU Edwardsville	89.9
SMU	105.4
South Alabama	97.2
South Carolina	105.0
South Carolina St.	88.6
South Dakota	97.2
South Dakota St.	106.2
South Florida	100.8
Southeast Missouri St.	93.1
Southeastern Louisiana	91.1
Southern	87.8
Southern Illinois	102.4
Southern Miss	100.2
Southern Utah	93.3
St. Bonaventure	100.8
St. Francis BKN	94.1
St. Francis PA	95.8
St. John’s	110.4
Stanford	102.0
Stephen F. Austin	96.9
Stetson	86.8
Stony Brook	101.2
Syracuse	111.4
TCU	111.7
Temple	107.4
Tennessee	118.1
Tennessee Martin	91.9
Tennessee St.	92.5
Tennessee Tech	90.2
Texas	110.9
Texas A&M	105.0
Texas A&M CC	93.4
Texas Southern	98.7
Texas St.	103.7
Texas Tech	115.5
The Citadel	97.6
Toledo	106.4
Towson	94.3
Troy	97.7
Tulane	93.6
Tulsa	102.6
UAB	99.4
UC Davis	95.7
UC Irvine	103.7
UC Riverside	92.8
UC Santa Barbara	102.2
UCLA	106.8
UMass Lowell	94.8
UMKC	95.0
UNC Asheville	84.9
UNC Greensboro	103.9
UNC Wilmington	96.2
UNLV	101.5
USC	105.6
USC Upstate	90.6
UT Arlington	95.2
UT Rio Grande Valley	95.3
Utah	102.1
Utah St.	108.4
Utah Valley	102.2
UTEP	95.0
UTSA	97.4
Valparaiso	100.6
Vanderbilt	105.9
Vermont	105.9
Villanova	112.2
Virginia	119.9
Virginia Commonwealth	107.7
Virginia Tech	116.3
VMI	89.6
Wagner	96.3
Wake Forest	100.7
Washington	108.2
Washington St.	98.2
Weber St.	99.5
West Virginia	108.4
Western Carolina	91.8
Western Illinois	93.3
Western Kentucky	105.3
Western Michigan	97.4
Wichita St.	102.9
William & Mary	98.1
Winthrop	101.3
Wisconsin	114.1
Wofford	110.1
Wright St.	100.4
Wyoming	92.8
Xavier	105.9
Yale	105.2
Youngstown St.	92.3

 

Note: We will add a new update rating on Mondays to reflect the weekend games.  They should be published later in the day, but usually before 6 PM Eastern Time.

The updated Ratings will be presented in a different entry from the regular Bracketology Report.

Also, continuing next week, we will present part 2 of our Fun Stuff For Stats Buffs.  We’ll show you how to calculate stats for individual players.  Then, in part 3, we will attempt to show you how to calculate offensive and defensive efficiency.