The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 25, 2017

PiRate Ratings Elite 8 Preview

RED-WHITE-BLUE RATINGS

Saturday, March 25
Team Team Red White Blue
Gonzaga Xavier 11 8 3
Kansas Oregon 6 3 3

 

Sunday, March 26
Team Team Red White Blue
Kentucky North Carolina 1 -2 -1
Florida South Carolina 6 7 5

 

PiRate Ratings National Championship Criteria Breakdown of the Elite 8

Gonzaga vs. Xavier

Power Conference: Xavier-Yes, Gonzaga-No    Favors Xavier

Strength of Schedule: Xavier 58.70, Gonzaga 54.02  Favors Xavier by a little

R+T Rating: Gonzaga 20.3, Xavier 14.4  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Scoring Margin: Gonzaga 22.3, Xavier 4.0  Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

FG% Differential: Gonzaga 14.5, Xavier 1.1  Favors Gonzaga by a lot

Road W-L: Gonzaga 20-0, Xavier 12-9   Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

Winning Streaks: Gonzaga 29 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Expected Possessions in this Game: 69 per team  Favors neither team

Outcome: Gonzaga has everything going for it except conference strength and schedule.  If the Bulldogs had the same numbers and played in the Big East, they would have the perfect resume for a national champion.  However, there hasn’t been a national champion from outside a power conference since UNLV won in 1990, and before that, it was Texas Western in 1966.  Of course, non power conference teams have made it to the Final Four numerous times in the past decade.

Criteria Selection: GONZAGA 75  Xavier 70

 

Kansas vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Yes for Both   Favors neither team

Strength of Schedule: Kansas 58.11, Oregon 56.83  Only slightly favors Kansas

R+T Rating: Oregon 14.8,  Kansas 12.6  Only slightly favors Oregon

Scoring Margin: Oregon 13.5, Kansas 12.0  Not much difference

FG% Differential: Oregon 7.7, Kansas 7.5  A Push

Road W-L: Kansas 16-3, Oregon 15-5  This favors Kansas, but it is almost a home game for KU

Winning Streaks: Kansas 18 & 8, Oregon 17 & 8  A Push

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Slightly favors Kansas

Outcome: We have to include two extra criteria here.  Oregon’s stats must be slightly discounted due to the loss of Boucher, and Kansas is playing this game in their favorite venue not named Phog Allen Fieldhouse, earning about two points of home court advantage.   Otherwise, this game would be a tossup, and it still might be rather close.  However, watching what KU did to a quality Purdue team on this court Thursday night, it makes us wonder if any college team can beat Kansas in KC.  Oops!  That happened in the Big 12 Tournament, so think again–except not today.

Criteria Selection: KANSAS 83  Oregon 75

 

Florida vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both and both in the SEC so this is a third game between these teams.  Both teams won the game on their home floor.

Strength of Schedule: Florida 59.34, South Carolina 56.23  A slight edge to the Gators

R+T Rating: Florida 11.1, South Carolina 10.4  About the same

Scoring Margin: Florida 11.9, South Carolina 8.3  A small edge to the Gators

FG% Differential: Florida 4.3, South Carolina 2.3  A small edge to the Gators

Road W-L: Florida 18-7, South Carolina 10-7, actually about the same as UF played a lot of early neutral site games in their own backyard while their gym was being refurbished

Winning Streaks: Florida 9 & 7, South Carolina 8 & 5

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Favors neither team

Outcome: South Carolina’s defense in their Sweet 16 game against Baylor was the best we have seen in a game this late into the Big Dance since Georgetown manhandled Kentucky in 1984, which comes on top of one of the best offensive performances in their win over Duke.  Can the Gamecocks do this to a team that is not just a conference foe, but a rather strong rival?  Florida might also be a tad fatigued coming off the overtime win over Wisconsin, but it helps that the Gators are facing a team they know about without having to look at the film for a long time.  This will be the most exciting game of this round, even more exciting than the big UK-UNC match, because this will have the feel of the 7th game of an NBA playoff series.

Criteria Selection: FLORIDA 67  South Carolina 64

 

Kentucky vs. North Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both  Before the tourney started, the ACC might have gotten a little extra over the SEC, but with 3 of the Elite 8 from the SEC, it almost makes us think about the opposite

Strength of Schedule: North Carolina 59.00, Kentucky 58.63   A Push

R+T Rating: North Carolina 31.0,  Kentucky 17.1  UNC has the best R+T in NCAA basketball, but Kentucky’s is rather high as well, and in the course of this game, it will not give the Tar Heels a lot of advantage

Scoring Margin: North Carolina 14.7, Kentucky 13.8  Not enough difference to matter

FG% Differential: North Carolina 5.6,  Kentucky 5.2  A Push

Road W-L: Kentucky 17-3, North Carolina 14-7,  A slight edge to the Wildcats

Winning Streaks: Kentucky 14 & 7, North Carolina 13 & 7, While this looks like another push, Kentucky’s 14-game winning streak is ongoing, and there is a definite difference in the Wildcats’ performance in this streak, while Carolina played its best basketball in November and December

Expected Possessions in this Game: 74,  which favors Kentucky just like it did in December

Outcome: We selected Kentucky to run the table and win the National Championship before the NCAA Tournament started, and nothing has changed our beliefs that the Wildcats are the best team in the nation when they want to play up to their potential.  It can be difficult to motivate a stable full of future NBA Lottery picks, but Coach John Calipari is a master psychologist with an ability to coerce through his many talks with his players.  When any of the starters and a couple reserves can go off and score 25 points in a game, it is hard to prepare in advance.  Stop Monk, and someone else has a career night.

Criteria Selection: KENTUCKY 85  North Carolina 73

March 17, 2017

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Saturday, March 18, 2017 NCAA Tournament Games

Team Team Red White Blue
West Virginia Notre Dame 6 4 1
Villanova Wisconsin 8 6 6
Gonzaga Northwestern 17 10 8
Florida St. Xavier 8 5 4
Butler Middle Tennessee 5 4 7
Arizona Saint Mary’s -2 -1 1
Florida Virginia 1 1 1
Purdue Iowa St. 1 2 1

 

Saturday’s TV Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
12:10 PM CBS West Virginia vs. Notre Dame
2:40 PM CBS Villanova vs. Wisconsin
5:15 PM CBS Gonzaga vs. Northwestern
6:10 PM TNT Florida St. vs. Xavier
7:10 PM TBS Butler vs. Middle Tennessee
7:45 PM CBS Arizona vs. Saint Mary’s
8:40 PM TNT Florida vs. Virginia
9:40 PM TBS Purdue vs. Iowa St.

 

 

March 15, 2017

Red-White-Blue Ratings For Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Games

 

Team Team Red White Blue
Notre Dame Princeton 6 6 2
Virginia UNC-Wilmington 7 9 9
Butler Winthrop 10 9 10
Gonzaga South Dakota St. 24 21 15
West Virginia Bucknell 13 12 11
Florida East Tennessee St. 10 12 13
Minnesota Middle Tennessee 2 1 3
Northwestern Vanderbilt -1 -1 -5
Maryland Xavier -1 -1 -1
Villanova Mount St. Mary’s 22 23 21
Saint Mary’s VCU 5 6 4
Purdue Vermont 9 9 5
Florida St. Florida Gulf Coast 13 14 11
Wisconsin Virginia Tech 4 4 4
Arizona North Dakota 15 15 14
Iowa St. Nevada 6 6 6

February 17, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 18-19, 2017

 

Games Scheduled for: Saturday, February 18, 2017
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Miami (Fla.) Clemson 3 5 5
North Carolina St. Notre Dame -7 -5 -4
Duke Wake Forest 9 11 10
Louisville Virginia Tech 14 14 15
Pittsburgh Florida St. -1 -5 -4
North Carolina Virginia 6 4 2
Cincinnati Tulsa 16 17 14
Houston SMU -1 1 -1
Baylor Kansas 2 2 7
Texas Kansas St. -1 1 2
West Virginia Texas Tech 14 12 9
Iowa St. TCU 8 8 4
Oklahoma St. Oklahoma 14 11 13
Seton Hall Villanova -7 -8 -5
Marquette Xavier 3 3 -1
Iowa Illinois 6 3 1
Purdue Michigan St. 13 13 8
Northwestern Rutgers 13 11 9
Ohio St. Nebraska 6 7 5
Wichita St. Northern Iowa 20 17 18
Oregon Colorado 12 15 18
Washington St. Arizona St. -2 -1 3
Washington Arizona -10 -10 -9
UCLA USC 12 12 9
Tennessee Missouri 14 12 15
Mississippi St. Florida -12 -11 -10
Alabama LSU 12 12 10
Texas A&M Auburn 4 4 8
Arkansas Ole Miss 7 7 5
Georgia Kentucky -7 -7 -4
Vanderbilt South Carolina -2 1 2
Gonzaga Pacific 34 27 29
BYU Saint Mary’s -3 -5 -5

 

Games Scheduled for: Sunday, February 19, 2017
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Georgia Tech Syracuse 1 -3 2
Butler DePaul 19 18 21
Creighton Georgetown 9 8 5
Wisconsin Maryland 7 8 4
Minnesota Michigan 4 1 6
Illinois St. Loyola (Chi.) 10 8 8
Oregon St. Utah -13 -10 -11

PiRate Ratings Top 25

  1. Gonzaga
  2. Villanova
  3. Kansas
  4. West Virginia
  5. Louisville
  6. North Carolina
  7. Florida
  8. Kentucky
  9. Virginia
  10. Duke
  11. Purdue
  12. Florida St.
  13. Baylor
  14. UCLA
  15. Wichita St.
  16. Oregon
  17. Saint Mary’s
  18. SMU
  19. Arizona
  20. Creighton
  21. Wisconsin
  22. Oklahoma St.
  23. Cincinnati
  24. Butler
  25. Notre Dame

 

ACC

  1. Louisville
  2. North Carolina
  3. Virginia
  4. Duke
  5. Florida St.
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Wake Forest
  8. Miami (Fla.)
  9. Clemson
  10. Syracuse
  11. Virginia Tech
  12. Georgia Tech
  13. Pittsburgh
  14. North Carolina St.
  15. Boston College

Big 12

  1. Kansas
  2. West Virginia
  3. Baylor
  4. Oklahoma St.
  5. Iowa St.
  6. TCU
  7. Kansas St.
  8. Texas Tech
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Texas

Big East

  1. Villanova
  2. Creighton
  3. Butler
  4. Marquette
  5. Xavier
  6. Seton Hall
  7. Providence
  8. Georgetown
  9. St. John’s
  10. DePaul

Big Ten

  1. Purdue
  2. Wisconsin
  3. Maryland
  4. Northwestern
  5. Minnesota
  6. Michigan
  7. Indiana
  8. Michigan St.
  9. Iowa
  10. Ohio St.
  11. Illinois
  12. Penn St.
  13. Nebraska
  14. Rutgers

Pac-12

  1. UCLA
  2. Oregon
  3. Arizona
  4. California
  5. Utah
  6. USC
  7. Colorado
  8. Stanford
  9. Washington
  10. Arizona St.
  11. Washington St.
  12. Oregon St.

SEC

  1. Florida
  2. Kentucky
  3. South Carolina
  4. Arkansas
  5. Tennessee
  6. Georgia
  7. Alabama
  8. Ole Miss
  9. Vanderbilt
  10. Texas A&M
  11. Auburn
  12. Mississippi St.
  13. Missouri
  14. LSU

Friday Night Games You Might Want To Watch

Don’t wait until Saturday to start following basketball games, because there are some interesting Friday night games this week.

Starting at 7 PM EST tonight, tune into ESPN2 to see Valparaiso visit Oakland in a battle of the top two teams in the Horizon League.  Alec Peters may be the best Mid-Major player you have not seen.  Peters averages 23.1 points per game and 10.7 rebounds a game for Valpo, and he is an excellent passer similar to Bill Walton in his UCLA days.

Earlier in the season, Oakland won by 12 at Valpo, never allowing the Crusaders to take a lead in the entire game.  Oakland guard Martez Walker put the game away in the opening minutes of the second half with a salvo of baskets while also being a force on the glass.

 

There are two important Ivy League games tonight.  Columbia visits Harvard in a game the Lions need to show they belong with the top three in the league.  Princeton, Harvard, and Yale are locks to make the four-team Ivy League Tournament, but Columbia still has work to do and has a weekend road set with Harvard and Dartmouth after losing at Penn and Princeton last weekend.  This game will be on ESPN3 at 7 PM EST.  Two more losses this weekend, and Columbia could be tied for fourth rather in fourth by two games over the lower division.

At 8 PM EST on ESPN3, Princeton visits Yale.  If the Tigers can get by the Bulldogs tonight, their chance of wrapping up the top seed in the Ivy League’s first ever tournament will be about 98%, since they already won at Harvard.  PU is riding an 11-game winning streak.

 

At 9 PM EST on ESPN2, Virginia Commonwealth visits Richmond in a big Atlantic 10 game.  VCU is in first place in the league, but the Rams need a resume boost to guarantee a possible at-large bid if they do not earn the automatic invitation.  Richmond has no signature wins, and the Spiders will have to run the table in the A-10 Tournament to get back to the Dance.

 

At 10 PM EST, California travels west across the Bay to take on Stanford at Maples Pavilion in a game that could move the Bears into safe at-large territory if they can take down their rival.  This game will air on FS1.  Coach Cuonzo Martin’s teams tend to become tougher defensively and gel as a team in the second half of the year, and this Bear team is 8-2 in its last 10 games with the two losses coming at Oregon and at Arizona.  Three weeks ago in Berkeley, 6-11 Ivan Rabb was unstoppable, hitting a couple of threes from the top of the key and getting some in-your-face baskets at the rim, as his 25 points destroyed the Cardinal.

 

Saturday’s Best Games

Kansas at Baylor 1 PM EST on CBS

Kentucky at Georgia 6 PM EST on ESPN

TCU at Iowa St. 6 PM EST on ESPNEWS

SMU at Houston 6 PM EST on ESPN2

Xavier at Marquette 8 PM EST on CBSSN

Virginia at North Carolina 8:15 PM EST on ESPN

USC at UCLA 10 PM EST on Pac-12 Network

Saint Mary’s at BYU 10 PM EST on ESPN2

 

Gonzaga 2017 vs. Wichita State 2014

Current undefeated and top-ranked Gonzaga reminds many fans of the 2014 Wichita State team that ran the table and earned the regular season number one ranking prior to entering NCAA Tournament action as the top seed.  That Shocker team beat only one top team that season, winning at Tennessee.  The Vols would go on to make the Sweet 16, before falling to Michigan by a bucket.

This year’s Gonzaga team has a slightly better schedule resume.  The Bulldogs own neutral court victories of Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona in an 8-day period just after Thanksgiving.  The Zags also swept top 20 Saint Mary’s by 23 and 10 points.

Let’s take a look at the Four Factors comparison between the two teams.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

Gonzaga has the clear advantage here.  The Bulldogs current EFG% is 58.1%.  Their regular FG% is 51.6%, and they are hitting 39% of their three-point attempts.  Defensively, GU gives up an EFG% of just 41.7%, for an EFG% margin of 16.4%, the best in the nation.

In 2014, Wichita State was quite good in this factor, but they were not as good as GU this year.  The Shockers’ EFG% was 52.6%, as there were games where they could not hit from outside 10 feet until the last 5-8 minutes of the second half.  Their defensive EFG% was very good at 44.6% for an EFG% margin of 8.0%.  It was not in the top 10 in the nation that year.

 

Turnover Rate

This factor is a wash between the two undefeated teams.  Gonzaga has a current TO rate of 13.8 and a defensive TO rate of 16.1 for a margin of 2.3%

Wichita State had a TO rate of 13.6 and a defensive TO rate of 16.3 for a margin of 2.7%.

 

Rebound Rate

This is where Wichita State had a major advantage.  The Shockers had an Offensive Rebound Rate of 35.0, which was very good, while their Defensive Rebound Rate was an excellent 26.0 for a Rebound Rate margin of 9.0%.  The Shockers did not have a dominant rebounder, but their three guards rebounded like power forwards.

 

Gonzaga has an Offensive Rebound Rate of 31.1 and a Defensive Rebound Rate of 27.0 for a Rebound Rate margin of 4.1.  The Bulldogs have won the battle of the boards in a large majority of their games thanks to the two-headed seven-foot dominators combining for 11 boards a game.  While the Bulldogs are quite good in this factor, Wichita State was dominant.

 

Free Throw Rate

This is the least important of the Four Factors, but it is still important just by being one of the four factors.  Gonzaga has one of the best FT Rate margins in the nation this year, and the reason is that opponents are forced to foul Gonzaga’s big dominating centers inside to prevent easy baskets.

GU’s offensive FT Rate is 22.9, and their defensive FT Rate is 15.3 for a FT Rate margin of 7.6%.  As good as this number is, 2014 Wichita State had one of the best FT Rates of all time.  Their Offensive FT Rate was 28.4, while their Defensive FT Rate was 18.8 for a FT Rate margin of 9.6%!

 

Other Factors

These factors were made under slightly different strengths of schedule.  Gonzaga’s current SOS averages about 2 points per game better than Wichita’s SOS from 2014.  This even includes Wichita’s game against Kentucky, which put an end to the undefeated season in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.

The PiRate R+T ratings for both teams is a wash.  Gonzaga’s current R+T is 20.4, while Wichita State’s was 21.2.  Both teams received ample extra scoring opportunities due to superior rebounding and turnovers (with an emphasis on steals).

There is virtually no difference in quality depth, as both teams could go two deep at every position.

 

Wichita State’s Season Ended

The Shockers won their first NCAA Tournament game by 27 points over 16-seed Cal Poly.  Then they fell by 2 to Kentucky in the next round.  Kentucky won because Wichita State lacked the overall quickness to prevent numerous open shots by the Wildcats on both the perimeter and through penetration.  John Calipari adjusted well at halftime when Wichita State enjoyed a 6-point lead, and a 10-0 UK run in a three-minute stretch at the start of the second half gave Kentucky the lead.  Trailing by two with seven seconds left, Wichita State had a chance to tie or win the game, but Fred Van Vleet’s contested three-pointer from 21 feet out bricked off the backboard.

 

Gonzaga’s Vulnerability

It is difficult for some to understand that an undefeated team with a scoring margin of 23.8 points per game could really be vulnerable, but even the 1972 UCLA Bruins had a few liabilities.  Gonzaga is not unbeatable, as all college teams (even the UConn women’s team) can be defeated, even if it is not that likely.

A good pressure defense team can disrupt the Bulldogs enough to provide an opening to score some cheap baskets off steals and to force GU into foul trouble.  Florida almost had enough in the defensive tank to pull it off, but Gonzaga still won thanks to hot inside-outside shooting from Josh Perkins and Jonathan Williams, while the Bulldog defense stuck to the Gators like glue, forcing UF to shoot just 36.9% from the field and a pitiful 10.5% from behind the arc.

Gonzaga does not always put an opponent away once they have taken a double-digit lead.  They almost saw Iowa State come back from a 15-point halftime deficit and 18-point 2nd half deficit, as Iowa State’s Deonte Burton brought the Cyclones back to within a point with multiple chances to take the lead in the final minute.  ISU had a shot to win at the buzzer and could not get the shot off.  If GU does not help out on defense, a star player can possibly end the Bulldogs’ season in the Big Dance.

Our Take

We believe Gonzaga is clearly better than the 2014 Wichita State team.  If they enter the NCAA Tournament with a 33-0 record (which we believe is about 95% possible), they will obviously be a #1 seed.  The first game against a #16 seed should be no problem, and we cannot see any possible #8 or #9 seed finding a way to beat them two days later.

Once they get to the Sweet 16, there could be some teams capable of beating the Zags, but only if either Gonzaga lays a big egg or the opponent plays lights out.  The possible #4 or #5 seeds that could pose a problem for GU include West Virginia, Cincinnati, SMU, and South Carolina.  All four of these teams can force Gonzaga to turn the ball over and alter their offense to a point where they must shoot poor shots late in the shot clock.

If Gonzaga makes it to the Elite 8, there will be somebody like Louisville, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, Duke, or North Carolina in their path.  All of these teams can beat Gonzaga half the time, so it would be considered a 50-50 game against any of these teams.

Looking at the Final Four if GU finally makes it to there, we actually do not think the other potential number one seeds are the teams likely to beat the Bulldogs.  Villanova, Kansas, and Baylor will not match up well with GU.  It will be another team, like one of the teams mentioned in the Elite 8 paragraph that will stop the undefeated streak–if it is stopped.

 

Since Indiana last blitzed the field in 1975-76 (and Rutgers made it to the Final Four undefeated), Indiana State in 1979, UNLV in 1991, and Kentucky in 2015, made it to the Final Four unbeaten, and none of the three won the title.

Indiana State was clearly not up to Michigan State’s talent level as Larry Bird could not beat Magic Johnson plus Greg Kelser plus 5 or 6 other really good Spartans.

UNLV met a really good Duke team that probably would not have beaten the Runnin’ Rebels more than 2 times out of 10.  However, the Blue Devils had been dealt a major black eye with the worst ever National Championship Game loss to UNLV the year before, and they came out punching.

Kentucky ran up against a much more poised and mature Wisconsin team, one in which the Badgers players had ma lot more NCAA Tournament experience.  UW played a smart game; they forced Kentucky to beat them by doing something other than one-on-one dribble drives and feeds when faced with double-teams.  The UK players did not come out punching, and their defense was subpar that night.

In Gonzaga’s favor, they are not a one-man team like Indiana State (Carl Nicks was good but not a star).  They will not face an opponent that has a grudge from losing by 30+ points the last time they played, but Florida and Arizona might know a little more about what it will take to win if there is a rematch in the Dance.  The Bulldogs are not an inexperienced team lacking maturity that will fall to a more experienced, more mature team, because Mark Few has too many mature players on this team for that to happen.

If Gonzaga loses in the NCAA Tournament, it will be because the other team has equal or superior talent and plays well enough with that talent to win.  Otherwise, GU will become the next undefeated national champion.

The PiRates say that Gonzaga has a 1 in 12 chance of going 39-0 and winning the national title and maybe a 1 in 11.8 chance of just winning the national title.  We believe they have a 1 in 3 chance of making it to the Final Four.

November 28, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For December 1-3, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:24 am

The 2016 football season seemed to have just started a couple weeks ago, but here we are already to Championship Week.  This year’s list of Conference Championship Games are sure to provide excitement, but there may be a little less intrigue in some of the contests.  Of course, just one upset in a game figured to be an easy win for the favorite can make one of these games become monumental.

 

Without further adieu, here is a breakdown of the week’s big games.

Friday

The opening conference title game begins at 7 PM Eastern Time on ESPN2 when Western Michigan and Ohio University square off in Detroit in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.  The Broncos are in the Cotton Bowl with a win unless Navy wins the AAC by enough to jump WMU in the final playoff rankings.

In the nightcap, Colorado faces Washington in Santa Clara, California, as the host site of the last Super Bowl to decide the Pac-12 Conference Championship.  A UW win would likely allow the Huskies the privilege of playing top-seeded Alabama in the Peach Bowl in the playoff semifinals.  Colorado is likely to receive the Rose Bowl bid, win or lose this game.  9 PM EST on Fox

 

Saturday

all times EST

12 Noon on ABC–The American Athletic Conference Championship Game

Temple at Navy

Navy faces a strange circumstance in that they will play in their league’s conference championship this week and then play rival Army next week.  They could win the AAC title and then lose to Army and miss out on a possible Cotton Bowl bid as the highest-rated Group of 5 team.  Even in the Midshipmen win both games, they might not pass a 13-0 Western Michigan team.

12 Noon on ESPN–The Conference USA Championship Game

Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky

This conference doesn’t actually rank its bowl tie-ins.  They try to guide their member teams to bowls that create the best possible match-ups, so the game’s outcome could have very little effect on the bowls.  These teams played earlier in the year, with LT handing Western its lone conference loss in a 55-52 shootout.  Hilltopper Coach Jeff Brohm could be coaching his final game with the Hilltoppers, as he will be a prime candidate in multiple open jobs among Power 5 leagues.

12:30 PM on Fox–The De Facto Big 12 Championship Game

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

The winner of this game wins the Big 12 regular season title and most likely earns a trip to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.  A very convincing Sooner win and losses by Clemson and Washington could give OU a small chance to make the Playoffs, but this league is going to be hurt by not having that 13th game with highly-ranked teams facing off.

4 PM on CBS–The Southeastern Conference Championship Game

Alabama vs. Florida in Georgia Dome in Atlanta

The Crimson Tide basically clinched a berth in the Playoffs, and now they must win one more game to guarantee the top seed and know they will be returning to Atlanta for the Semifinal Round on New Year’s Eve.

Florida is playing for a Sugar Bowl bid only, as they are 8-3 and have no chance to make the Playoffs.  They also have virtually no chance to win this game, but they could make it interesting for a half.  The way the Tide has been playing defense in November, they could possibly pitch a shutout in this game.

 

7:45 PM on ESPN–The Mountain West Conference Championship Game

San Diego State at Wyoming

These two teams squared off two weeks ago in Laramie with Wyoming winning a hard-fought game.  Both teams come into this game off regular season losses.  The winner heads to Las Vegas for bowl season.  If SDSU loses, they could play at home in the Poinsettia Bowl, and if Wyoming loses, they could be headed to the field of Blue to play in the Idaho Potato Bowl.

 

8PM on ABC–The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech in Orlando, Florida

Clemson is playing for a playoff spot, and a win secures their golden ticket.  A Virginia Tech upset would send the Hokies to the Orange Bowl, and CU possibly to the Cotton Bowl.

 

8 PM on Fox–The Big Ten Conference Championship

Wisconsin vs. Penn State at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana

To the winner goes a trip to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl and the chance for their band to play in the greatest parade on Earth.  The loser could be faced with an uninspiring trip to Dallas to face Western Kentucky or Navy in the Cotton Bowl.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 131.1 137.5 135.4
2 Washington 131.0 123.8 130.4 128.4
3 Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
4 Clemson 129.7 123.5 128.9 127.4
5 Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
6 Oklahoma 124.3 122.7 124.1 123.7
7 LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
8 USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
9 Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
10 Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
11 Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
12 Penn St. 119.1 119.4 118.9 119.1
13 Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
14 Virginia Tech 118.5 116.9 118.6 118.0
15 Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.5 117.0 117.7
16 Colorado 119.1 114.7 119.0 117.6
17 Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
18 Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
19 Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
20 North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
21 Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
22 Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
23 Florida 113.6 114.3 112.1 113.3
24 Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
25 Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
26 West Virginia 112.5 111.8 112.2 112.2
27 Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
28 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
29 Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
30 Western Kentucky 110.8 108.7 112.2 110.6
31 TCU 110.3 111.7 109.4 110.5
32 Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
33 Kansas St. 109.0 111.1 108.9 109.7
34 South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
35 Navy 110.0 108.4 110.2 109.6
36 Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
37 BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
38 Temple 108.9 108.3 109.6 109.0
39 Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
40 Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
41 Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
42 North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
43 Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
44 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
45 Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
46 Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
47 Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
48 Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
49 Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
50 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
51 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
52 San Diego St. 104.0 102.7 105.9 104.2
53 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
54 Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
55 Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
56 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
57 Baylor 103.2 103.9 103.1 103.4
58 Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
61 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
62 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
63 Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
64 Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
68 Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
69 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
70 Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
71 Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
72 Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
73 South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
74 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
75 Louisiana Tech 96.4 98.8 98.1 97.8
76 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
77 New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
78 Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
79 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
80 Arkansas St. 93.3 95.9 95.1 94.8
81 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
82 Wyoming 93.3 94.0 94.2 93.9
83 Troy 91.7 95.6 93.6 93.7
84 Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
85 Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
86 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
87 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
88 Army 89.4 95.8 90.6 91.9
89 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
90 Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
91 Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
92 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
93 UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
94 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
95 Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
98 Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
102 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
103 Georgia Southern 85.6 86.6 87.1 86.5
104 Idaho 83.8 88.8 85.8 86.1
105 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
106 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
107 UL-Lafayette 83.0 87.1 84.7 85.0
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
111 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
112 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
113 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
114 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
115 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
116 Georgia St. 79.4 83.6 81.4 81.5
117 Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
118 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
121 North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.1 77.0 75.1 75.4
127 UL-Monroe 70.6 75.6 71.5 72.6
128 Texas St. 62.1 64.8 63.0 63.3

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings–Like the Coaches Poll and Not For Predicting Future Outcomes

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Wisconsin
6 Washington
7 Penn St.
8 USC
9 Colorado
10 Western Michigan
11 Oklahoma
12 Florida St.
13 Stanford
14 Oklahoma St.
15 LSU
16 Louisville
17 Auburn
18 Florida
19 Washington St.
20 West Virginia
21 South Florida
22 Iowa
23 Houston
24 Navy
25 Boise St.
26 Virginia Tech
27 Pittsburgh
28 Nebraska
29 Miami (Fla)
30 Tennessee
31 Texas A&M
32 Utah
33 Temple
34 North Carolina
35 Tulsa
36 Western Kentucky
37 Minnesota
38 BYU
39 Georgia Tech
40 Kansas St.
41 Appalachian St.
42 Toledo
43 Troy
44 Memphis
45 Georgia
46 Arkansas
47 San Diego St.
48 Northwestern
49 TCU
50 Air Force
51 Kentucky
52 Colorado St.
53 Vanderbilt
54 North Carolina St.
55 Indiana
56 Ole Miss
57 Wyoming
58 California
59 Old Dominion
60 Louisiana Tech
61 New Mexico
62 Mississippi St.
63 Baylor
64 Central Florida
65 Maryland
66 UCLA
67 South Carolina
68 Oregon
69 Notre Dame
70 Boston College
71 Texas
72 Ohio
73 Idaho
74 Wake Forest
75 Arkansas St.
76 Arizona St.
77 Oregon St.
78 Eastern Michigan
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas Tech
81 SMU
82 Missouri
83 Duke
84 Michigan St.
85 Syracuse
86 Central Michigan
87 UTSA
88 Army
89 Miami (O)
90 Northern Illinois
91 Iowa St.
92 Arizona
93 Southern Miss.
94 Georgia Southern
95 Hawaii
96 UL-Lafayette
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Bowling Green
104 Purdue
105 East Carolina
106 Virginia
107 San Jose St.
108 Nevada
109 North Texas
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 UL-Monroe
113 Georgia St.
114 Rutgers
115 Kent St.
116 Kansas
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Texas St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Buffalo

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
Temple 108.9 108.3 109.6 109.0
Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
Navy 110.0 108.4 110.2 109.6
Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 99.2 99.2 99.6 99.3
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 129.7 123.5 128.9 127.4
Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.5 116.9 118.6 118.0
Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 124.3 122.7 124.1 123.7
Oklahoma St. 117.5 118.5 117.0 117.7
West Virginia 112.5 111.8 112.2 112.2
TCU 110.3 111.7 109.4 110.5
Kansas St. 109.0 111.1 108.9 109.7
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Baylor 103.2 103.9 103.1 103.4
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
Penn St. 119.1 119.4 118.9 119.1
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 110.8 108.7 112.2 110.6
Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.4 98.8 98.1 97.8
UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
Army 89.4 95.8 90.6 91.9
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Indep. Averages 98.1 99.2 98.3 98.5
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
Wyoming 93.3 94.0 94.2 93.9
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 104.0 102.7 105.9 104.2
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 131.0 123.8 130.4 128.4
Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
Colorado 119.1 114.7 119.0 117.6
Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 113.6 114.3 112.1 113.3
Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 137.5 131.1 137.5 135.4
LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
Arkansas St. 93.3 95.9 95.1 94.8
Troy 91.7 95.6 93.6 93.7
Georgia Southern 85.6 86.6 87.1 86.5
Idaho 83.8 88.8 85.8 86.1
UL-Lafayette 83.0 87.1 84.7 85.0
South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
Georgia St. 79.4 83.6 81.4 81.5
New Mexico St. 74.1 77.0 75.1 75.4
UL-Monroe 70.6 75.6 71.5 72.6
Texas St. 62.1 64.8 63.0 63.3
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.3 85.9 83.8 84.0

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–December 2-3, 2016
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Kansas St. 4.3 3.6 3.5
Georgia Southern Troy -3.6 -6.5 -4.0
Navy Temple 4.1 3.1 3.6
Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 17.4 12.9 17.1
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 7.8 10.2 8.1
South Alabama New Mexico St. 10.3 13.7 10.1
UL-Monroe UL-Lafayette -8.9 -10.0 -11.7
West Virginia Baylor 12.3 10.9 12.1
Alabama Florida 23.9 18.8 25.4
Idaho Georgia St. 7.4 8.2 7.4
Texas St. Arkansas St. -28.7 -28.6 -29.6
Wyoming San Diego St. -7.7 -5.7 -8.7
Clemson Virginia Tech 11.2 6.6 10.3
Wisconsin Penn St. 0.4 -2.4 1.3

 

Washington Colorado 12.1 9.1 11.4
Western Michigan Ohio 21.8 15.9 22.9

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. La. Tech
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC {Hawaii} vs. Wyoming
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. UL-Lafayette
Camellia MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Sou. Miss. vs. Appy St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC Tulsa vs. Ohio
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU San Diego St. vs. * BYU *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Boise St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA South Florida vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {North Texas}
Dollar General MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. Arkansas St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Old Dominion vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND {Army} vs. Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten Boston College vs. {Miss. St.}
Independence SEC ACC/ND Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {S.Alabama} vs. UTSA
Military ACC/ND AAC N. Carolina St. vs. Temple
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Stanford
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. [Idaho]
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Louisville vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern vs. Wash. St.
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. S. Carolina
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Tennessee
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 N. Carolina vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Middle Tenn. vs. Colorado St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Indiana vs. Kentucky
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Florida St. vs. Michigan
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Florida
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Ohio St. vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Iowa vs. LSU
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Penn St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Clemson
           
           
* Team * This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team] At-Large Selection

 

November 20, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 22-26, 2016

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:06 pm

And Down The Stretch They Come
If your favorite team is in a conference with a conference championship game, then this is your team’s final regular season week. If not, then your team may have two more regular season games left. Let’s take a look at each conference to see where the races stand.

American
East: Temple controls its own destiny. If the Owls beat East Carolina in Philly this week, they are the division champs. If Temple loses, then South Florida can become division champs with a win over Central Florida. UCF is bowl eligible.

West: Navy has already clinched the division title regardless of what the Midshipmen do at SMU this week. Oddly, they will play the AAC Championship Game on December 3 and then face Army the week after. Navy is still technically alive for a Cotton Bowl bid should Western Michigan lose, so they cannot accept the Armed Forces Bowl bid just yet.
Houston, Memphis, and Tulsa are bowl eligible, and SMU needs to upset Navy to get to 6-6.

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson has secured the division flag and will advance to the conference championship game. Louisville and Florida State are still alive for an Orange Bowl berth, while Wake Forest is bowl eligible. North Carolina State must upset North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Friday to become bowl eligible, while Boston College stands at 5-6 and would earn bowl eligibility with a win at Wake Forest. However, the Eagles might still receive a bid at 5-7 due to their high position in APR score. Syracuse has a very slim chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 if they win at Pitt in the season finale.

Coastal: Virginia Tech will clinch the division title with a win over Virginia. Should the Hokies fall, then North Carolina can win the title by topping North Carolina St. If both Virginia Tech and UNC lose, even though there could be a three or four-way tie including Pitt and Miami, the Hokies would win the tiebreaker and face Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
Duke is 4-7 and needs to win at Miami to become the top 5-7 team for an alternate bowl bid.

Big 12
The winner of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game two Saturdays from now takes the Big 12 title. If it is Oklahoma, the Sooners are still alive for a Playoff berth. If it is Okie State, the Cowboys would secure the Sugar Bowl spot. West Virginia, Baylor, and Kansas State are also bowl eligible. Texas at 5-6 must beat TCU this week to become bowl eligible, while TCU must beat either Texas this week or Kansas State the following week to become bowl eligible.

Big Ten
East: If Michigan beats Ohio State, the Wolverines are division champs. If Ohio State wins, then Penn State would be the division champion if they beat Michigan State. If Ohio State wins and Penn State loses, the Buckeyes would be the division champs. Indiana must beat Purdue, and Maryland must take out Rutgers for the Hoosiers and Terrapins to become bowl eligible.

West: Although Iowa and Minnesota can still finish in a multiple-way tie, only Wisconsin or Nebraska can win the division. If UW beat Minnesota, the Badgers are in the conference championship game. If UW loses, and Nebraska wins at Iowa, the Cornhuskers earn the division flag. In addition to Iowa and Minnesota, Northwestern can become bowl eligible if the Wildcats beat Illinois. If the Illini win, the Wildcats still have an excellent chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7, since NU is second to Duke in APR score.

Conference USA
East: Western Kentucky will win the division title with a win at Marshall. If the Hilltoppers lose this game, then Old Dominion would win the flag with a win over Florida International. If both WKU and ODU lose, then WKU would back into the title. Middle Tennessee is also bowl eligible.

West: Louisiana Tech has already clinched the division title. UTSA is bowl eligible and will earn its first ever bowl game. Southern Miss must beat La. Tech to become bowl eligible, while North Texas needs to beat UTEP to become bowl eligible, although the Mean Green could sneak into a bowl at 5-7 due to their high APR score (better than Boston College, Indiana, Maryland, Syracuse).

FBS Independents
Notre Dame is 4-7, and if the Irish upset USC in LA, at 5-7, it is not sure whether the Irish would accept a bowl bid. They would not be guaranteed to get in, as they have the #30 APR score.
BYU has accepted the Poinsettia Bowl bid that was theirs if they became bowl eligible.
Army is 6-5, but the Black Knights are not yet bowl eligible, as two of those wins are against FCS schools. The Cadets must beat Navy to become bowl eligible, but a loss to drop them to 6-6 would almost assuredly still allow the West Pointers to earn an alternate bowl bid, as 6-6 with two FCS wins trumps any 5-7.

Mid-American
East: Ohio U wins the division with a victory over Akron this week. If the Bobcats lose this game, then Miami of Ohio can win the division with a victory over Ball St. If the Redhawks win, they will become the first team to ever go to a bowl after starting a season 0-6. If Ohio wins, Miami will still get a bowl with a win. Akron must beat Ohio to become bowl eligible.
West: Western Michigan is a win over Toledo and over Ohio or Miami from getting to the Cotton Bowl. If the Rockets upset the Broncos, then it will be Toledo heading to the MAC Championship Game. Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan are also bowl eligible.

Mountain West
Mountain: Wyoming was picked to finish last in the division, but a Cowboy win over New Mexico will give them the division title. If the Lobos win, then Boise State can earn the flag again with a win at Air Force. If New Mexico, Wyoming, and Boise State end up in a tie, the Cowboys take the flag in the tiebreaker. Air Force and Colorado State are also bowl eligible.

West: San Diego State clinched the division title some time ago. They could be looking at a rematch with Wyoming. Hawaii can get to 6-7 with a win over UMass this week, and the Rainbow Warriors would rank ahead of all 5-7 teams in the alternate bowl pecking order.

Pac-12
North: The division title will be decided in the Palouse this week in the Apple Cup Game, as Washington State hosts Washington. Stanford is the only other division team that is bowl eligible. Oregon can sneak into a bowl at 5-7 with a win over Oregon State, while California would have a miniscule chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 with a win over UCLA.

South: If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffs win the division. If Utah wins, then USC takes the flag. Besides these three, Arizona State needs to beat Arizona to become bowl eligible, while UCLA can get into the 5-7 sweepstakes with a win at Cal. The Bruins are rather far back in APR score and would need a lot of 5-6 and 4-7 teams to lose.

Southeastern
East: Florida clinched the division with their win at LSU. Tennessee is still alive for a NY 6 bowl if they beat Vanderbilt, and Florida loses to Florida State. Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina are bowl eligible. Vanderbilt is 5-6, and if the Commodores do not upset Tennessee this week, they can still get into a bowl due to an APR score that ranks just behind Duke and Northwestern and ahead of everybody else in contention.

West: Alabama has already clinched the division regardless of what happens against Auburn. Auburn is already bowl eligible, as is LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Ole Miss must beat Mississippi State to become bowl eligible.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State lost its first four games, including one to FCS Central Arkansas. Since then, ASU has won six games in a row and has remaining road games against UL-Lafayette and Texas State. The Red Wolves will most likely win both to finish 8-0 in league play, but if ULL upsets ASU, Appalachian State can tie for the league title with a win over New Mexico State this week. Since the two contenders did not play, the conference race would end in a tie. Troy and Idaho are also bowl eligible. South Alabama is 5-5 with games left against Idaho and New Mexico State. The Jaguars must win both to become bowl eligible at 7-5, as they have two FCS wins, but there is a chance the NCAA could grant them leniency for beating Presbyterian after having to relinquish a game against LSU. Still, at 6-6, USA would be headed to a bowl because there will not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill 80 spots. UL-Lafayette must beat Arkansas State and UL-Monroe to become bowl eligible.

Number of Bowl Eligible Teams at Present: 66
Number of Bowl Eligible Teams Projected by PiRate Ratings: 74
Number of non Bowl Eligible Teams Projected to earn bowl bids: 6

Our bowl projections follow at the end of this submission.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.5 130.9 137.6 135.3
2 Ohio St. 127.4 127.0 127.7 127.4
3 Michigan 127.5 125.6 127.3 126.8
4 Washington 127.9 121.2 127.2 125.4
5 Clemson 127.4 121.0 126.4 124.9
6 Louisville 125.1 121.1 125.1 123.8
7 Oklahoma 124.0 122.4 123.8 123.4
8 LSU 123.9 119.3 123.3 122.2
9 USC 124.0 119.1 122.5 121.9
10 Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
11 Florida St. 121.8 115.8 121.1 119.6
12 Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
13 Colorado 119.3 114.9 119.4 117.9
14 Oklahoma St. 117.2 118.2 116.7 117.4
15 Penn St. 116.5 117.1 116.4 116.7
16 Miami 118.4 112.9 118.3 116.5
17 Pittsburgh 118.1 114.0 117.5 116.5
18 North Carolina 118.4 112.7 118.3 116.5
19 Washington St. 117.3 114.1 116.9 116.1
20 Virginia Tech 116.1 114.7 116.1 115.6
21 Tennessee 116.0 113.6 115.2 114.9
22 Florida 114.6 115.6 113.1 114.4
23 Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
24 Western Michigan 112.7 112.6 114.3 113.2
25 Texas A&M 113.4 112.0 112.8 112.7
26 Iowa 113.1 110.5 112.9 112.2
27 Houston 111.7 110.5 113.1 111.8
28 Notre Dame 112.6 109.8 111.7 111.4
29 Arkansas 112.5 108.2 111.0 110.6
30 Utah 112.5 107.6 111.0 110.4
31 Kansas St. 109.3 111.3 109.4 110.0
32 BYU 111.0 106.5 111.1 109.5
33 West Virginia 109.7 109.2 109.2 109.4
34 South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
35 San Diego St. 108.5 107.2 110.4 108.7
36 Temple 108.7 108.0 109.4 108.7
37 Georgia Tech 110.1 106.2 109.2 108.5
38 Nebraska 109.3 106.9 109.0 108.4
39 TCU 107.9 109.4 106.9 108.1
40 UCLA 108.9 107.1 108.0 108.0
41 Georgia 108.4 107.9 107.7 108.0
42 Ole Miss 109.3 105.6 108.0 107.6
43 Northwestern 108.6 105.2 107.5 107.1
44 Texas 106.8 108.3 105.8 107.0
45 Michigan St. 107.7 106.6 106.4 106.9
46 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
47 Western Kentucky 107.0 104.8 108.3 106.7
48 Boise St. 105.8 106.8 106.6 106.4
49 Tulsa 105.6 106.8 106.4 106.3
50 Baylor 105.5 106.3 105.6 105.8
51 Navy 106.2 104.7 106.3 105.8
52 Mississippi St. 106.2 104.3 105.0 105.2
53 North Carolina St. 106.3 103.1 105.9 105.1
54 Indiana 104.5 105.7 104.1 104.8
55 Memphis 105.6 103.4 104.7 104.6
56 Oregon 105.0 103.1 104.0 104.0
57 Toledo 103.0 103.6 104.0 103.5
58 Vanderbilt 104.8 101.6 103.6 103.4
59 Iowa St. 103.4 103.2 102.6 103.1
60 Wake Forest 102.2 100.3 102.5 101.7
61 Arizona St. 102.5 100.9 101.0 101.5
62 Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
63 Virginia 102.6 99.8 101.7 101.4
64 Duke 101.3 100.5 100.7 100.8
65 Louisiana Tech 99.0 101.0 101.0 100.3
66 Appalachian St. 99.1 100.3 100.7 100.0
67 South Carolina 100.1 99.8 99.8 99.9
68 Texas Tech 100.2 99.5 99.1 99.6
69 Central Florida 97.9 99.1 98.7 98.6
70 Missouri 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.9
71 California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
72 Boston College 98.2 96.8 97.4 97.5
73 Oregon St. 99.3 94.8 98.1 97.4
74 Syracuse 98.6 95.4 96.8 97.0
75 Air Force 96.0 97.8 96.1 96.6
76 Arkansas St. 95.1 97.4 97.0 96.5
77 Wyoming 95.6 95.7 96.6 96.0
78 SMU 95.2 94.7 97.3 95.8
79 Maryland 95.4 97.7 93.6 95.6
80 Northern Illinois 94.5 95.8 95.4 95.2
81 Colorado St. 94.3 95.9 95.4 95.2
82 Central Michigan 93.2 95.2 93.6 94.0
83 New Mexico 92.9 95.2 93.6 93.9
84 Ohio 91.8 97.4 92.5 93.9
85 Troy 91.3 95.4 93.2 93.3
86 Army 89.1 95.5 90.3 91.6
87 Arizona 92.5 90.2 90.8 91.2
88 Cincinnati 90.9 91.7 90.3 91.0
89 Miami (O) 89.9 91.4 91.4 90.9
90 Old Dominion 89.2 92.2 90.4 90.6
91 Illinois 91.8 89.0 90.7 90.5
92 UTSA 86.8 92.6 89.1 89.5
93 Purdue 90.4 88.9 89.0 89.4
94 Utah St. 88.5 91.2 88.2 89.3
95 Middle Tennessee 88.3 89.9 88.5 88.9
96 East Carolina 87.8 89.3 87.8 88.3
97 Eastern Michigan 86.9 89.0 87.6 87.8
98 Connecticut 88.2 87.3 87.6 87.7
99 UNLV 86.1 88.8 86.6 87.2
100 Kansas 86.4 90.5 84.3 87.1
101 Bowling Green 86.6 87.4 86.9 87.0
102 Georgia Southern 85.4 86.4 86.9 86.3
103 Rutgers 87.2 85.4 85.7 86.1
104 Idaho 83.6 88.6 85.6 85.9
105 Southern Mississippi 85.5 86.1 85.5 85.7
106 Nevada 84.6 86.8 85.2 85.6
107 Ball St. 84.2 86.4 85.0 85.2
108 Tulane 83.5 87.2 84.1 84.9
109 Kent St. 84.1 85.6 85.0 84.9
110 South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
111 San Jose St. 84.2 84.2 84.1 84.2
112 Akron 81.4 86.6 82.2 83.4
113 UL-Lafayette 81.2 85.6 82.8 83.2
114 Florida International 81.4 85.6 82.0 83.0
115 Marshall 81.1 84.7 81.7 82.5
116 North Texas 81.0 83.8 81.5 82.1
117 Massachusetts 79.8 85.3 80.7 81.9
118 Georgia St. 79.2 83.4 81.2 81.3
119 Hawaii 80.9 80.5 80.6 80.7
120 Rice 76.8 83.0 77.3 79.0
121 Charlotte 76.7 82.2 77.4 78.8
122 Fresno St. 77.2 80.6 76.9 78.2
123 Buffalo 75.8 81.9 76.3 78.0
124 Florida Atlantic 75.2 79.9 77.6 77.6
125 New Mexico St. 74.7 77.6 75.7 76.0
126 UTEP 70.9 75.8 72.1 73.0
127 UL-Monroe 70.4 75.4 71.3 72.4
128 Texas St. 62.5 65.0 63.4 63.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.8 107.9 110.3 109.3
Temple 108.7 108.0 109.4 108.7
Central Florida 97.9 99.1 98.7 98.6
Cincinnati 90.9 91.7 90.3 91.0
East Carolina 87.8 89.3 87.8 88.3
Connecticut 88.2 87.3 87.6 87.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 111.7 110.5 113.1 111.8
Tulsa 105.6 106.8 106.4 106.3
Navy 106.2 104.7 106.3 105.8
Memphis 105.6 103.4 104.7 104.6
SMU 95.2 94.7 97.3 95.8
Tulane 83.5 87.2 84.1 84.9
         
AAC Averages 99.3 99.3 99.7 99.4
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 127.4 121.0 126.4 124.9
Louisville 125.1 121.1 125.1 123.8
Florida St. 121.8 115.8 121.1 119.6
North Carolina St. 106.3 103.1 105.9 105.1
Wake Forest 102.2 100.3 102.5 101.7
Boston College 98.2 96.8 97.4 97.5
Syracuse 98.6 95.4 96.8 97.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.4 112.9 118.3 116.5
Pittsburgh 118.1 114.0 117.5 116.5
North Carolina 118.4 112.7 118.3 116.5
Virginia Tech 116.1 114.7 116.1 115.6
Georgia Tech 110.1 106.2 109.2 108.5
Virginia 102.6 99.8 101.7 101.4
Duke 101.3 100.5 100.7 100.8
         
ACC Averages 111.7 108.2 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 124.0 122.4 123.8 123.4
Oklahoma St. 117.2 118.2 116.7 117.4
Kansas St. 109.3 111.3 109.4 110.0
West Virginia 109.7 109.2 109.2 109.4
TCU 107.9 109.4 106.9 108.1
Texas 106.8 108.3 105.8 107.0
Baylor 105.5 106.3 105.6 105.8
Iowa St. 103.4 103.2 102.6 103.1
Texas Tech 100.2 99.5 99.1 99.6
Kansas 86.4 90.5 84.3 87.1
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.4 127.0 127.7 127.4
Michigan 127.5 125.6 127.3 126.8
Penn St. 116.5 117.1 116.4 116.7
Michigan St. 107.7 106.6 106.4 106.9
Indiana 104.5 105.7 104.1 104.8
Maryland 95.4 97.7 93.6 95.6
Rutgers 87.2 85.4 85.7 86.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 119.5 117.0 120.2 118.9
Iowa 113.1 110.5 112.9 112.2
Nebraska 109.3 106.9 109.0 108.4
Northwestern 108.6 105.2 107.5 107.1
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Illinois 91.8 89.0 90.7 90.5
Purdue 90.4 88.9 89.0 89.4
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.3 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 107.0 104.8 108.3 106.7
Old Dominion 89.2 92.2 90.4 90.6
Middle Tennessee 88.3 89.9 88.5 88.9
Florida International 81.4 85.6 82.0 83.0
Marshall 81.1 84.7 81.7 82.5
Charlotte 76.7 82.2 77.4 78.8
Florida Atlantic 75.2 79.9 77.6 77.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 99.0 101.0 101.0 100.3
UTSA 86.8 92.6 89.1 89.5
Southern Mississippi 85.5 86.1 85.5 85.7
North Texas 81.0 83.8 81.5 82.1
Rice 76.8 83.0 77.3 79.0
UTEP 70.9 75.8 72.1 73.0
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 87.8 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.6 109.8 111.7 111.4
BYU 111.0 106.5 111.1 109.5
Army 89.1 95.5 90.3 91.6
Massachusetts 79.8 85.3 80.7 81.9
         
Independents Averages 98.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.8 97.4 92.5 93.9
Miami (O) 89.9 91.4 91.4 90.9
Bowling Green 86.6 87.4 86.9 87.0
Kent St. 84.1 85.6 85.0 84.9
Akron 81.4 86.6 82.2 83.4
Buffalo 75.8 81.9 76.3 78.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 112.7 112.6 114.3 113.2
Toledo 103.0 103.6 104.0 103.5
Northern Illinois 94.5 95.8 95.4 95.2
Central Michigan 93.2 95.2 93.6 94.0
Eastern Michigan 86.9 89.0 87.6 87.8
Ball St. 84.2 86.4 85.0 85.2
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 105.8 106.8 106.6 106.4
Air Force 96.0 97.8 96.1 96.6
Wyoming 95.6 95.7 96.6 96.0
Colorado St. 94.3 95.9 95.4 95.2
New Mexico 92.9 95.2 93.6 93.9
Utah St. 88.5 91.2 88.2 89.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 108.5 107.2 110.4 108.7
UNLV 86.1 88.8 86.6 87.2
Nevada 84.6 86.8 85.2 85.6
San Jose St. 84.2 84.2 84.1 84.2
Hawaii 80.9 80.5 80.6 80.7
Fresno St. 77.2 80.6 76.9 78.2
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 127.9 121.2 127.2 125.4
Washington St. 117.3 114.1 116.9 116.1
Stanford 115.9 109.6 115.4 113.6
Oregon 105.0 103.1 104.0 104.0
California 100.8 94.5 98.4 97.9
Oregon St. 99.3 94.8 98.1 97.4
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.0 119.1 122.5 121.9
Colorado 119.3 114.9 119.4 117.9
Utah 112.5 107.6 111.0 110.4
UCLA 108.9 107.1 108.0 108.0
Arizona St. 102.5 100.9 101.0 101.5
Arizona 92.5 90.2 90.8 91.2
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.5 106.5 109.4 108.8
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 116.0 113.6 115.2 114.9
Florida 114.6 115.6 113.1 114.4
Georgia 108.4 107.9 107.7 108.0
Vanderbilt 104.8 101.6 103.6 103.4
Kentucky 101.4 102.0 100.9 101.4
South Carolina 100.1 99.8 99.8 99.9
Missouri 98.4 97.5 97.7 97.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 137.5 130.9 137.6 135.3
LSU 123.9 119.3 123.3 122.2
Auburn 120.3 118.5 120.1 119.6
Texas A&M 113.4 112.0 112.8 112.7
Arkansas 112.5 108.2 111.0 110.6
Ole Miss 109.3 105.6 108.0 107.6
Mississippi St. 106.2 104.3 105.0 105.2
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.8 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.1 100.3 100.7 100.0
Arkansas St. 95.1 97.4 97.0 96.5
Troy 91.3 95.4 93.2 93.3
Georgia Southern 85.4 86.4 86.9 86.3
Idaho 83.6 88.6 85.6 85.9
South Alabama 82.1 88.4 82.9 84.5
UL-Lafayette 81.2 85.6 82.8 83.2
Georgia St. 79.2 83.4 81.2 81.3
New Mexico St. 74.7 77.6 75.7 76.0
UL-Monroe 70.4 75.4 71.3 72.4
Texas St. 62.5 65.0 63.4 63.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.2 85.8 83.7 83.9

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 111.9 109.8 111.1 110.9
2 ACC 111.7 108.2 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.5 106.5 109.4 108.8
4 Big 12 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.1
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.3 107.0 107.0
6 AAC 99.3 99.3 99.7 99.4
7 Independents 98.1 99.3 98.5 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 84.5 87.8 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 82.2 85.8 83.7 83.9

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Wisconsin
6 Washington
7 Penn St.
8 USC
9 Colorado
10 Western Michigan
11 Oklahoma
12 Louisville
13 Florida St.
14 Auburn
15 Boise St.
16 Florida
17 Nebraska
18 Washington St.
19 Stanford
20 Oklahoma St.
21 Texas A&M
22 Tennessee
23 Houston
24 South Florida
25 LSU
26 West Virginia
27 North Carolina
28 Virginia Tech
29 Pittsburgh
30 Miami (Fla)
31 Navy
32 Utah
33 Iowa
34 Temple
35 San Diego St.
36 Tulsa
37 Arkansas
38 Toledo
39 BYU
40 Minnesota
41 Kansas St.
42 Georgia
43 Western Kentucky
44 Appalachian St.
45 Georgia Tech
46 Ole Miss
47 Troy
48 Wyoming
49 Memphis
50 Louisiana Tech
51 Northwestern
52 Baylor
53 TCU
54 Air Force
55 UCLA
56 Indiana
57 Oregon
58 Colorado St.
59 Kentucky
60 Central Florida
61 Arizona St.
62 Vanderbilt
63 Texas
64 Arkansas St.
65 North Carolina St.
66 Wake Forest
67 South Carolina
68 Old Dominion
69 Notre Dame
70 California
71 New Mexico
72 Mississippi St.
73 Maryland
74 Ohio
75 SMU
76 Idaho
77 Boston College
78 Duke
79 Eastern Michigan
80 Middle Tennessee
81 Oregon St.
82 Texas Tech
83 Michigan St.
84 Syracuse
85 Central Michigan
86 Iowa St.
87 Missouri
88 Army
89 UTSA
90 Miami (O)
91 Northern Illinois
92 South Alabama
93 Illinois
94 Cincinnati
95 Georgia Southern
96 Arizona
97 Akron
98 Utah St.
99 Southern Miss.
100 Hawaii
101 UNLV
102 Virginia
103 North Texas
104 UL-Lafayette
105 East Carolina
106 Tulane
107 Purdue
108 Ball St.
109 Rutgers
110 Bowling Green
111 San Jose St.
112 UL-Monroe
113 Kent St.
114 Georgia St.
115 Connecticut
116 Nevada
117 Kansas
118 Charlotte
119 New Mexico St.
120 Florida Int’l.
121 Marshall
122 Rice
123 Massachusetts
124 Florida Atlantic
125 UTEP
126 Texas St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Buffalo

This Week’s Spreads

November 22-26
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 22
Ohio U Akron 12.4 12.8 12.3
Miami (O) Ball St. 8.2 7.5 8.9
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan -3.8 -3.7 -3.5
         
Thanksgiving Day, November 24
Texas A&M LSU -7.5 -4.3 -7.5
         
Black Friday, November 25
Kent St. Northern Illinois -7.9 -7.7 -8.9
North Carolina North Carolina St. 13.6 11.1 13.9
Memphis Houston -3.1 -4.1 -5.4
Bowling Green Buffalo 13.8 8.5 13.6
Missouri Arkansas -11.1 -7.7 -3.3
Washington St. Washington -8.1 -4.6 -7.8
Air Force Boise St. -6.8 -6.0 -7.5
Texas TCU 0.9 0.9 0.9
Iowa Nebraska 6.8 6.6 6.9
Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech -13.5 -11.9 -15.5
Western Michigan Toledo 12.7 12.0 13.3
Texas Tech Baylor -2.3 -3.8 -3.5
Tulsa Cincinnati 17.7 18.1 19.1
Arizona Arizona St. -8.0 -8.7 -8.2
         
Saturday, November 26
Georgia Georgia Tech 0.3 3.7 0.5
Louisville Kentucky 25.2 20.6 25.7
Kansas St. Kansas 24.4 22.3 26.6
Maryland Rutgers 11.2 15.3 10.9
Ohio St. Michigan 2.9 4.4 3.4
Indiana Purdue 16.1 18.8 17.1
Northwestern Illinois 18.3 17.7 18.3
South Florida Central Florida 13.9 10.8 13.6
Virginia Tech Virginia 15.0 16.4 15.9
UL-Lafayette Arkansas St. -11.4 -9.3 -11.9
Pittsburgh Syracuse 22.5 21.6 23.7
Wake Forest Boston College 7.0 6.5 8.1
Miami (Fla.) Duke 20.1 15.4 20.6
Old Dominion Florida Int’l. 10.3 9.1 10.9
Fresno St. San Jose St. -4.5 -1.1 -4.7
Ole Miss Mississippi St. 5.1 3.3 5.0
Alabama Auburn 19.2 14.4 19.5
USC Notre Dame 14.4 12.3 13.8
SMU Navy -8.0 -7.0 -7.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -3.3 -3.0 -3.6
Penn St. Michigan St. 11.8 13.5 13.0
Wisconsin Minnesota 14.6 13.7 15.6
Idaho South Alabama 4.5 3.2 5.7
Texas St. Troy -26.3 -27.9 -27.3
New Mexico St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -19.7 -22.0
Connecticut Tulane 7.7 3.1 6.5
Oregon St. Oregon -3.2 -5.8 -3.4
UNLV Nevada 3.5 4.0 1.4
UTEP North Texas -8.1 -6.0 -7.4
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic 16.1 13.0 13.9
Marshall Western Kentucky -22.9 -17.1 -23.6
UTSA Charlotte 13.1 13.4 14.7
California UCLA -5.1 -9.6 -6.6
Colorado Utah 9.8 10.3 11.4
Clemson South Carolina 29.3 23.2 29.6
Vanderbilt Tennessee -10.2 -11.0 -10.6
Temple East Carolina 23.9 21.7 24.6
Stanford Rice 42.1 29.6 41.1
Florida St. Florida 9.2 2.2 10.0
San Diego St. Colorado St. 17.2 16.3 18.0
New Mexico Wyoming 0.3 2.5 0.1
BYU Utah St. 24.5 17.3 24.9
Hawaii Massachusetts 5.1 -0.8 3.9

Bowl Projections

This week, we project just 74 teams becoming bowl eligible, which means six teams would need to be picked as non bowl-eligible alternates.  Three of those teams could be 6-6 Army, 6-6 South Alabama, and 6-7 Hawaii.  That would leave room for three 5-7 teams.

We have a unique thought this week.  The Armed Forces Bowl could very well need to fill one of its spots with one of these alternates.  Why not take Army, since it is the Armed Forces Bowl?  The opponent would be Navy.  It is out of the ordinary for bowls to have rematch games, but in this case, if Army and Navy play a close game in Baltimore on December 10, why not have a rematch in a bowl?  In the past, LSU and Ole Miss hooked up in the Sugar Bowl after playing a close game in the regular season, as did Nebraska and Oklahoma, when they met again in the Orange Bowl.  The Rose Bowls from past years have seen multiple rematch games.

Here are our projections for this week.  Note that BYU’s bid is already secured.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Tulsa vs. Appy St.
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC MAC South Florida vs. Toledo
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. W. Kentucky
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. * BYU *
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Boise St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Temple vs. Ohio U
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. {Army}
Dollar General MAC SBC Central Mich. vs. Idaho
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Central Florida vs. {Vanderbilt}
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten {Boston College} vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND Ole Miss vs. {Oregon}
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Maryland vs. Middle Tenn.
Military ACC/ND AAC Wake Forest vs. Memphis
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Washington St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. {Hawaii}
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 North Carolina vs. Kansas St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. Stanford
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Auburn
Birmingham AAC SEC {South Alabama} vs. Kentucky
Belk ACC/ND SEC Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. Arkansas
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Miami (Fla.) vs. Utah
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC North Texas vs. Colorado St.
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Nebraska vs. Georgia
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Michigan
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Texas A&M
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Georgia Tech vs. LSU
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Clemson vs. Ohio St.
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Western Mich. vs. Washington
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Tennessee
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Clemson
           
           
* Team * This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team] At-Large Selection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 17, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 17-21, 2016

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:00 am

Abbreviated Post today due to time concerns.

Here are our 5 parlay picks for this week

 

November 15-21, 2016
1. College Parlay at +120
Memphis over Cincinnati
Pittsburgh over Duke
South Florida over SMU
 
2. College Parlay at +318
Virginia Tech over Notre Dame
Central Florida over Tulsa
 
3. College Parlay at +163
Ole Miss over Vanderbilt
USC over UCLA
Nebraska over Maryland
LSU over Florida
Utah over Oregon
 
4. NFL Parlay at +132
Indianapolis over Tennessee
Detroit over Jacksonville
 
5. NFL Parlay at +139
Kansas City over Tampa Bay
Seattle over Philadelphia
N.Y. Giants over Chicago

 

November 6, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 8-12, 2016

Thank You For The Kind Words

We have received more than three dozens congratulations tonight from you about our incredible weekend with our Money Line selections.  For those that do not know or follow, our picks (all at better than even money odds) went 6-0 returning a profit of 151%, but as we say every week in our selections “We do not actually wager real money on these games, and we advise you not to use our picks for anything more than secondary research.”  That said, we now show a profit for the season and a return on investment of 12%, which looks a lot better than the stock market this year.  Unfortunately, we cannot say that the stock market selections are as mythical as the money line picks.

 

Decision 2016
This is the big week. There will be change sweeping across America after the results of this week. This is the week where America will tune in to see if the favorite or the underdog wins.

No, we’re not talking politics. This is the first of the big closing weeks to the college football season, and a lot of games have major importance and implications on conference championships and more. Let’s take a look at some of the key games and why this will be a weekend you want to stay inside, enjoy a nice brunch on Saturday morning, an assortment of snackfood, and your beverages of choice as you are entertained from Noon Eastern Time Until past Midnight.

Baylor at Oklahoma
The Sooners hold out very slim hopes of sneaking into the playoffs with two losses, while Baylor is trying to stop a swoon. We predicted Baylor would end the season sinking due to a lack of depth, and we think the Bears will suffer their third consecutive loss. But, we cannot see Oklahoma jumping into the top four. However, the Sooners are in a tight, three-way race for the Big 12 title and the Sugar Bowl bid that would come with it.

South Carolina at Florida and Kentucky at Tennessee
We have grouped these two games together, because the SEC East is now up for grabs between the Gators, Volunteers, and more. If South Carolina continues its late-season surge and upsets the Gators in the Swamp, and if Kentucky can win in Knoxville for the first time in 32 years, then the race will be open for as many as three to five teams to finish in a multiple tie at 4-4. Maybe none of these teams really wants to face Alabama in Atlanta in December.

Tulsa at Navy
At stake in this game is the American Athletic Western Division title. Both teams are 4-1 in league play, and the winner figures to finish 7-1 and play Temple or South Florida in the AAC Championship Game.

UTSA at Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is the prohibitive favorite to win the Conference USA West Division, and this is the Bulldogs’ final obstacle to that path. UTSA has become the surprise team in the division with recent wins over North Texas and Middle Tennessee. The winner of this game will play Western Kentucky in the league championship game.

Appalachian St. at Troy
This game should decide the Sun Belt title, as these are the current top two teams in the league. If the winner of this game runs the table the rest of the way, it is likely the league will have a team that cracks the top 25 at the end of the season.

South Florida at Memphis
USF can still win the AAC East, and Memphis has a teeny tiny path to the AAC West division flag, but these teams are really fighting it out for a better bowl. The league does not slot teams in bowls by where they finish, but instead tries to place teams in bowls that provide better matchups. It’s better to be in Boca Raton, Orlando, or Miami Beach than Birmingham or Ft. Worth, and the sexier bowl sites will go to the teams that finish strong in November.

USC at Washington
The Trojans look like a new team from the one that lost to Stanford and Utah. The Trojans have won five consecutive games, including the lone Pac-12 loss on Colorado. The Trohans have averaged 40 points per game in this stretch. Washington has a tough closing schedule, as they have to win this game, beat Washington State in Pullman, and then beat the Pac-12 South Division winner (most likely Colorado or Utah) in the Pac-12 Championship Game to make it to the playoffs.

New Mexico at Utah St.
The Mountain West’s Mountain Division race is up for grabs, as New Mexico has just one conference loss and remains tied with Boise State, one game behind Wyoming. The Lobos are going bowling for sure, but they might like to venture outside of their home stadium for once. If they keep winning, they get to go to Vegas. Utah State is close to bowl elimination and finishes the season at Nevada and at BYU. This is a must-win game for the Aggies.

This week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 136.1 129.4 136.0 133.8
2 Michigan 131.9 129.4 132.1 131.1
3 Washington 130.8 123.5 130.6 128.3
4 Louisville 129.3 124.7 129.4 127.8
5 Clemson 129.5 122.4 128.6 126.8
6 Ohio St. 125.7 125.0 126.2 125.6
7 LSU 124.6 119.5 124.2 122.8
8 Auburn 122.3 120.0 122.3 121.5
9 Oklahoma 120.2 118.8 119.8 119.6
10 Virginia Tech 118.6 117.3 118.9 118.3
11 North Carolina 119.9 113.6 120.0 117.8
12 USC 118.9 114.2 116.8 116.6
13 Florida St. 118.8 112.6 117.9 116.4
14 Wisconsin 116.6 114.3 117.3 116.1
15 Colorado 117.5 113.1 117.3 116.0
16 Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.3 115.0 115.5
17 Texas A&M 116.2 114.4 115.7 115.4
18 Washington St. 116.4 113.5 116.2 115.4
19 Miami 117.3 111.6 116.8 115.2
20 Tennessee 116.0 113.2 115.2 114.8
21 Penn St. 114.6 115.4 114.3 114.8
22 Western Michigan 113.2 112.5 115.0 113.6
23 Florida 112.2 113.8 110.5 112.2
24 Stanford 114.2 108.3 113.5 112.0
25 Pittsburgh 113.2 109.5 112.2 111.6
26 West Virginia 111.6 110.9 111.0 111.2
27 Texas 110.5 111.6 109.9 110.7
28 TCU 110.3 111.8 109.4 110.5
29 Arkansas 112.4 108.0 110.7 110.4
30 Ole Miss 112.0 107.9 110.7 110.2
31 Houston 109.6 108.5 111.0 109.7
32 Notre Dame 111.2 108.0 109.8 109.7
33 Utah 112.0 106.5 110.4 109.6
34 Baylor 109.3 109.8 109.7 109.6
35 UCLA 110.2 108.6 109.5 109.4
36 BYU 110.5 105.2 110.4 108.7
37 South Florida 109.1 107.3 109.6 108.7
38 Mississippi St. 109.4 107.7 108.6 108.6
39 San Diego St. 108.4 106.8 110.4 108.6
40 Iowa 109.2 107.0 108.7 108.3
41 Nebraska 109.1 106.4 108.8 108.1
42 Northwestern 109.5 105.8 108.5 107.9
43 Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
44 Kansas St. 106.6 108.8 106.5 107.3
45 Temple 106.9 106.1 107.4 106.8
46 Georgia Tech 107.5 103.5 106.2 105.7
47 Western Kentucky 105.5 103.1 106.6 105.1
48 Oregon 105.9 104.0 105.0 105.0
49 Boise St. 104.3 105.5 105.1 105.0
50 Minnesota 105.5 104.4 105.0 105.0
51 Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.9 104.8
52 North Carolina St. 105.3 102.4 104.9 104.2
53 Texas Tech 104.4 103.6 102.9 103.7
54 Toledo 103.1 103.6 103.9 103.5
55 Arizona St. 104.2 103.1 102.8 103.4
56 Indiana 102.9 104.6 102.4 103.3
57 Memphis 104.2 102.3 103.1 103.2
58 Navy 103.7 102.1 103.5 103.1
59 Virginia 103.6 101.0 103.0 102.5
60 Michigan St. 103.3 102.5 101.6 102.5
61 Wake Forest 102.3 100.9 102.8 102.0
62 Duke 102.2 102.0 101.6 101.9
63 Vanderbilt 103.3 99.9 102.2 101.8
64 Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
65 Appalachian St. 99.6 100.0 101.4 100.3
66 South Carolina 100.1 99.7 99.8 99.9
67 Maryland 99.6 102.2 97.9 99.9
68 California 102.9 96.2 100.5 99.9
69 Syracuse 101.2 97.9 99.6 99.6
70 Louisiana Tech 97.8 99.6 99.7 99.0
71 Iowa St. 99.0 98.5 98.4 98.6
72 Central Florida 97.5 98.8 98.3 98.2
73 Air Force 96.7 98.4 97.1 97.4
74 Missouri 97.5 97.2 96.7 97.2
75 Boston College 97.1 95.9 96.4 96.5
76 Northern Illinois 94.8 96.1 96.1 95.7
77 New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
78 Troy 93.3 98.0 95.3 95.6
79 Cincinnati 95.2 95.4 94.9 95.2
80 Oregon St. 97.1 92.5 95.8 95.1
81 Wyoming 94.6 94.6 95.7 95.0
82 Illinois 95.7 92.5 94.7 94.3
83 Ohio 91.8 97.5 92.6 94.0
84 East Carolina 93.3 94.9 93.5 93.9
85 Arizona 95.1 92.9 93.6 93.9
86 Army 90.9 97.6 92.6 93.7
87 Central Michigan 92.8 94.7 93.1 93.5
88 Colorado St. 92.4 94.2 93.3 93.3
89 Middle Tennessee 92.6 93.7 93.1 93.1
90 Arkansas St. 91.6 93.7 93.4 92.9
91 SMU 91.4 90.9 93.5 92.0
92 Rutgers 92.3 90.1 91.0 91.2
93 Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
94 Georgia Southern 90.0 89.4 91.8 90.4
95 Connecticut 90.6 89.6 90.1 90.1
96 Miami (O) 89.3 90.2 90.8 90.1
97 Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
98 Old Dominion 87.6 90.9 88.4 89.0
99 Southern Mississippi 88.5 88.6 88.8 88.7
100 UTSA 85.5 92.0 87.9 88.5
101 Kent St. 87.4 89.2 88.1 88.3
102 Nevada 85.5 87.8 86.2 86.5
103 UNLV 85.3 88.4 85.4 86.4
104 Eastern Michigan 85.3 87.6 85.6 86.2
105 Ball St. 85.1 87.2 86.1 86.1
106 Tulane 83.3 87.4 83.9 84.9
107 Akron 82.6 88.1 83.7 84.8
108 South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
109 Georgia St. 82.0 86.6 83.8 84.1
110 Kansas 83.1 88.0 80.6 83.9
111 San Jose St. 83.8 83.8 83.5 83.7
112 Idaho 80.6 86.0 82.5 83.0
113 Massachusetts 80.0 86.3 81.1 82.5
114 North Texas 81.1 84.3 81.7 82.4
115 Hawaii 82.6 81.8 82.4 82.3
116 Marshall 80.7 84.5 81.3 82.2
117 Bowling Green 81.7 82.2 81.7 81.9
118 Florida International 79.4 83.8 79.8 81.0
119 UL-Lafayette 76.9 82.9 78.4 79.4
120 Charlotte 77.1 82.6 77.9 79.2
121 Florida Atlantic 76.0 80.7 78.8 78.5
122 Buffalo 75.8 82.8 76.3 78.3
123 Fresno St. 77.1 80.6 76.8 78.2
124 Rice 75.2 81.9 75.3 77.5
125 UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.6 74.3
126 New Mexico St. 71.8 74.9 72.7 73.1
127 Texas St. 68.3 70.4 69.3 69.3
128 UL-Monroe 66.2 71.4 67.0 68.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 109.1 107.3 109.6 108.7
Temple 106.9 106.1 107.4 106.8
Central Florida 97.5 98.8 98.3 98.2
Cincinnati 95.2 95.4 94.9 95.2
East Carolina 93.3 94.9 93.5 93.9
Connecticut 90.6 89.6 90.1 90.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 109.6 108.5 111.0 109.7
Tulsa 104.1 105.4 104.9 104.8
Memphis 104.2 102.3 103.1 103.2
Navy 103.7 102.1 103.5 103.1
SMU 91.4 90.9 93.5 92.0
Tulane 83.3 87.4 83.9 84.9
         
AAC Averages 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 129.3 124.7 129.4 127.8
Clemson 129.5 122.4 128.6 126.8
Florida St. 118.8 112.6 117.9 116.4
North Carolina St. 105.3 102.4 104.9 104.2
Wake Forest 102.3 100.9 102.8 102.0
Syracuse 101.2 97.9 99.6 99.6
Boston College 97.1 95.9 96.4 96.5
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.6 117.3 118.9 118.3
North Carolina 119.9 113.6 120.0 117.8
Miami 117.3 111.6 116.8 115.2
Pittsburgh 113.2 109.5 112.2 111.6
Georgia Tech 107.5 103.5 106.2 105.7
Virginia 103.6 101.0 103.0 102.5
Duke 102.2 102.0 101.6 101.9
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.3 110.5
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.2 118.8 119.8 119.6
Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.3 115.0 115.5
West Virginia 111.6 110.9 111.0 111.2
Texas 110.5 111.6 109.9 110.7
TCU 110.3 111.8 109.4 110.5
Baylor 109.3 109.8 109.7 109.6
Kansas St. 106.6 108.8 106.5 107.3
Texas Tech 104.4 103.6 102.9 103.7
Iowa St. 99.0 98.5 98.4 98.6
Kansas 83.1 88.0 80.6 83.9
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.8 106.3 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 131.9 129.4 132.1 131.1
Ohio St. 125.7 125.0 126.2 125.6
Penn St. 114.6 115.4 114.3 114.8
Indiana 102.9 104.6 102.4 103.3
Michigan St. 103.3 102.5 101.6 102.5
Maryland 99.6 102.2 97.9 99.9
Rutgers 92.3 90.1 91.0 91.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 116.6 114.3 117.3 116.1
Iowa 109.2 107.0 108.7 108.3
Nebraska 109.1 106.4 108.8 108.1
Northwestern 109.5 105.8 108.5 107.9
Minnesota 105.5 104.4 105.0 105.0
Illinois 95.7 92.5 94.7 94.3
Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
         
Big Ten Averages 107.7 106.4 107.1 107.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 105.5 103.1 106.6 105.1
Middle Tennessee 92.6 93.7 93.1 93.1
Old Dominion 87.6 90.9 88.4 89.0
Marshall 80.7 84.5 81.3 82.2
Florida International 79.4 83.8 79.8 81.0
Charlotte 77.1 82.6 77.9 79.2
Florida Atlantic 76.0 80.7 78.8 78.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 97.8 99.6 99.7 99.0
Southern Mississippi 88.5 88.6 88.8 88.7
UTSA 85.5 92.0 87.9 88.5
North Texas 81.1 84.3 81.7 82.4
Rice 75.2 81.9 75.3 77.5
UTEP 72.4 76.9 73.6 74.3
         
CUSA Averages 84.6 87.9 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 111.2 108.0 109.8 109.7
BYU 110.5 105.2 110.4 108.7
Army 90.9 97.6 92.6 93.7
Massachusetts 80.0 86.3 81.1 82.5
         
Independents Averages 98.2 99.3 98.5 98.6
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.8 97.5 92.6 94.0
Miami (O) 89.3 90.2 90.8 90.1
Kent St. 87.4 89.2 88.1 88.3
Akron 82.6 88.1 83.7 84.8
Bowling Green 81.7 82.2 81.7 81.9
Buffalo 75.8 82.8 76.3 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 112.5 115.0 113.6
Toledo 103.1 103.6 103.9 103.5
Northern Illinois 94.8 96.1 96.1 95.7
Central Michigan 92.8 94.7 93.1 93.5
Eastern Michigan 85.3 87.6 85.6 86.2
Ball St. 85.1 87.2 86.1 86.1
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.3 105.5 105.1 105.0
Air Force 96.7 98.4 97.1 97.4
New Mexico 94.6 96.8 95.4 95.6
Wyoming 94.6 94.6 95.7 95.0
Colorado St. 92.4 94.2 93.3 93.3
Utah St. 88.6 91.3 88.3 89.4
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 108.4 106.8 110.4 108.6
Nevada 85.5 87.8 86.2 86.5
UNLV 85.3 88.4 85.4 86.4
San Jose St. 83.8 83.8 83.5 83.7
Hawaii 82.6 81.8 82.4 82.3
Fresno St. 77.1 80.6 76.8 78.2
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.5 91.6 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 130.8 123.5 130.6 128.3
Washington St. 116.4 113.5 116.2 115.4
Stanford 114.2 108.3 113.5 112.0
Oregon 105.9 104.0 105.0 105.0
California 102.9 96.2 100.5 99.9
Oregon St. 97.1 92.5 95.8 95.1
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 118.9 114.2 116.8 116.6
Colorado 117.5 113.1 117.3 116.0
Utah 112.0 106.5 110.4 109.6
UCLA 110.2 108.6 109.5 109.4
Arizona St. 104.2 103.1 102.8 103.4
Arizona 95.1 92.9 93.6 93.9
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 116.0 113.2 115.2 114.8
Florida 112.2 113.8 110.5 112.2
Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
Vanderbilt 103.3 99.9 102.2 101.8
Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
South Carolina 100.1 99.7 99.8 99.9
Missouri 97.5 97.2 96.7 97.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 136.1 129.4 136.0 133.8
LSU 124.6 119.5 124.2 122.8
Auburn 122.3 120.0 122.3 121.5
Texas A&M 116.2 114.4 115.7 115.4
Arkansas 112.4 108.0 110.7 110.4
Ole Miss 112.0 107.9 110.7 110.2
Mississippi St. 109.4 107.7 108.6 108.6
         
SEC Averages 112.2 110.0 111.4 111.2
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.6 100.0 101.4 100.3
Troy 93.3 98.0 95.3 95.6
Arkansas St. 91.6 93.7 93.4 92.9
Georgia Southern 90.0 89.4 91.8 90.4
South Alabama 81.9 88.2 82.7 84.3
Georgia St. 82.0 86.6 83.8 84.1
Idaho 80.6 86.0 82.5 83.0
UL-Lafayette 76.9 82.9 78.4 79.4
New Mexico St. 71.8 74.9 72.7 73.1
Texas St. 68.3 70.4 69.3 69.3
UL-Monroe 66.2 71.4 67.0 68.2
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.0 85.6 83.5 83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.2 110.0 111.4 111.2
2 ACC 111.8 108.3 111.3 110.5
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big Ten 107.7 106.4 107.1 107.1
5 Big 12 107.0 107.8 106.3 107.1
6 AAC 99.1 99.1 99.5 99.2
7 Independents 98.2 99.3 98.5 98.6
8 MWC 91.2 92.5 91.6 91.8
9 MAC 90.2 92.7 91.1 91.3
10 CUSA 84.6 87.9 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 82.0 85.6 83.5 83.7

 

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Michigan
3 Clemson
4 Louisville
5 Washington
6 Ohio St.
7 Wisconsin
8 Auburn
9 Western Michigan
10 Colorado
11 Penn St.
12 Texas A&M
13 Oklahoma
14 Washington St.
15 Florida St.
16 USC
17 Virginia Tech
18 LSU
19 West Virginia
20 Boise St.
21 North Carolina
22 Nebraska
23 Utah
24 Tennessee
25 Florida
26 Stanford
27 Arkansas
28 Houston
29 Oklahoma St.
30 South Florida
31 San Diego St.
32 Tulsa
33 Troy
34 Appalachian St.
35 Minnesota
36 Temple
37 Miami (Fla)
38 BYU
39 Ole Miss
40 Navy
41 Toledo
42 Baylor
43 Wyoming
44 Western Kentucky
45 Pittsburgh
46 Iowa
47 Northwestern
48 Kansas St.
49 Georgia
50 Memphis
51 Arizona St.
52 Texas
53 TCU
54 Louisiana Tech
55 Georgia Tech
56 Wake Forest
57 Kentucky
58 UCLA
59 California
60 Indiana
61 Central Florida
62 Maryland
63 Mississippi St.
64 South Carolina
65 North Carolina St.
66 Air Force
67 Texas Tech
68 Colorado St.
69 Oregon
70 Vanderbilt
71 New Mexico
72 Middle Tennessee
73 Ohio
74 Old Dominion
75 Syracuse
76 Notre Dame
77 Boston College
78 Oregon St.
79 Duke
80 SMU
81 Arkansas St.
82 Idaho
83 Illinois
84 Army
85 Eastern Michigan
86 Georgia Southern
87 Southern Miss.
88 Central Michigan
89 UTSA
90 Akron
91 Cincinnati
92 Michigan St.
93 East Carolina
94 Utah St.
95 Arizona
96 Northern Illinois
97 South Alabama
98 Virginia
99 Missouri
100 Miami (O)
101 Rutgers
102 Hawaii
103 Purdue
104 Kent St.
105 Connecticut
106 Tulane
107 Ball St.
108 North Texas
109 Charlotte
110 Iowa St.
111 UL-Lafayette
112 Georgia St.
113 UNLV
114 San Jose St.
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico St.
117 Florida Int’l.
118 UL-Monroe
119 Massachusetts
120 UTEP
121 Bowling Green
122 Marshall
123 Kansas
124 Buffalo
125 Texas St.
126 Florida Atlantic
127 Fresno St.
128 Rice

 

This Week’s Games–November 8-12
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 8
Ball St. Eastern Michigan 2.8 2.6 3.5
Kent St. Western Michigan -22.8 -20.3 -23.9
         
Wednesday, November 9
Akron Bowling Green 2.9 8.9 4.0
Northern Illinois Toledo -5.3 -4.5 -4.8
         
Thursday, November 10
Duke Northern Carolina -16.2 -10.1 -16.9
Georgia Southern UL-Lafayette 15.6 9.0 15.9
Arizona St. Utah -4.8 -0.4 -4.6
         
Friday, November 11
Florida St. Boston College 24.7 19.7 24.5
         
Saturday, November 12
Oklahoma Baylor 13.9 12.0 13.1
Alabama Mississippi St. 29.7 24.7 30.4
Florida South Carolina 15.1 17.1 13.7
Tennessee Kentucky 17.9 14.2 17.7
Central Florida Cincinnati 5.3 6.4 6.4
East Carolina SMU 4.9 7.0 3.0
Navy Tulsa 2.6 -0.3 1.6
Kansas Iowa St. -13.4 -8.0 -15.3
Texas West Virginia 1.9 3.7 1.9
Michigan St. Rutgers 14.0 15.4 13.6
Indiana Penn St. -8.7 -7.8 -8.9
Purdue Northwestern -15.2 -13.1 -15.5
Syracuse North Carolina St. -1.1 -1.5 -2.3
Buffalo Miami (O) -11.0 -4.9 -12.0
Charlotte Rice 4.4 3.2 5.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -10.7 -7.6 -10.8
Georgia St. UL-Monroe 17.8 17.2 18.8
Arkansas St. New Mexico St. 22.8 21.8 23.7
UNLV Wyoming -6.3 -3.2 -7.3
Georgia Auburn -12.0 -10.1 -12.9
Missouri Vanderbilt -2.8 0.3 -2.5
Army (N) Notre Dame -20.3 -10.4 -17.2
Clemson Pittsburgh 19.3 15.9 19.4
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 14.1 16.8 15.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA 15.3 10.6 14.8
Western Kentucky North Texas 27.4 21.8 27.9
Old Dominion Southern Miss. 2.1 5.3 2.6
Troy Appalachian St. -2.7 1.0 -3.1
Wisconsin Illinois 23.4 24.3 25.1
Houston Tulane 29.3 24.1 30.1
Maryland Ohio St. -23.1 -19.8 -25.3
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 13.8 15.7 15.1
Texas St. Idaho -9.3 -12.6 -10.2
Oregon Stanford -5.3 -1.3 -5.5
Florida Atlantic UTEP 6.6 6.8 8.2
Hawaii Boise St. -18.2 -21.2 -19.2
Marshall Middle Tennessee -8.9 -6.2 -8.8
Louisville Wake Forest 30.0 26.8 29.6
Arkansas LSU -9.2 -8.5 -10.5
Memphis South Florida -1.9 -2.0 -3.5
Nebraska Minnesota 6.6 5.0 6.8
Texas A&M Ole Miss 7.2 9.5 8.0
Washington USC 14.9 12.3 16.8
Iowa Michigan -19.7 -19.4 -20.4
UCLA Oregon St. 16.1 19.1 16.7
Arizona Colorado -19 -17.2 -20.7
Air Force Colorado St. 6 6.4 6.8
Utah St. New Mexico -3.0 -2.5 -4.1
Nevada San Diego St. -19.9 -16.0 -21.2
Washington St. California 16.5 20.3 18.7

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. UTSA
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC San Diego St. vs. Arizona St.
Cure AAC SBC Central Fla. vs. Ga. Southern
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (Ohio) vs. Arkansas St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Old Dominion vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Temple vs. Ohio U
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis vs. La. Tech
Poinsettia MWC BYU Wyoming vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Colorado St.
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA Houston vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. TCU
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron vs. Appy St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. Boise St.
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Tulsa vs. {Hawaii}
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten {Army} vs. Northwestern
Independence SEC ACC/ND S. Carolina vs. [Charlotte]
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Idaho] vs. W. Kentucky
Military ACC/ND AAC South Florida vs. Georgia Tech
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. California
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 N. Carolina vs. West Virginia
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Indiana vs. USC
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Tennessee
Birmingham AAC SEC {S.Alabama} vs. Ole Miss
Belk ACC/ND SEC Miami (Fla.) vs. Georgia
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. vs. Wash. St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. LSU
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Wake Forest vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC North Texas vs. Air Force
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Iowa vs. Kentucky
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Virginia Tech vs. Penn St.
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Auburn
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Arkansas
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Clemson vs. Michigan
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Louisville
Outback Big Ten SEC Nebraska vs. Florida
Cotton At-Large At-Large Washington vs. Western Mich.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Michigan
           
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

We have been asked to explain what is the difference between at-large and alternate selections.

At-large selections are bowl-eligible teams from conferences that have more teams than allotted bowls.  For instance if the American Athletic Conference has eight bowl tie-ins, but they have nine bowl eligible teams, one of the nine would be an at-large team in another bowl that does not have a team due to a league not having enough bowl eligible teams.

Alternate teams are those that must be used to fill bowls even though they are not actually bowl-eligible.  There are multiple ways a team can be considered an alternate choice, and it goes according to this hieracrchy.

  1. 6-6 teams that beat two FCS opponents.  Only one FCS win is allowed to count toward bowl eligibility.  Army and South Alabama both could finish 6-6 with two wins over FCS opponents.
  2. 6-7 teams that won their division and lost in their conference championship game.  There is little to no chance that such an event will happen this year, but there is a very slim chance that a 6-6 team could win the SEC East and then lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
  3. 6-7 teams that played 13 regular season games.  Hawaii is likely to be 6-7 this year.
  4. 5-7 teams with the highest APR Scores.  If there are still openings needed after the above three criteria have been applied, the teams with the highest APR scores will receive what’s left.  Last year, three schools with 5-7 records received bowl bids (all three won their bowls).

Here are the list of possible 5-7 teams ranked in order of highest APR Scores

Duke

Vanderbilt

Army

Georgia Tech

North Texas

Boston College

Missouri

Utah St.

Syracuse

UCLA

Mississippi St.

 

The Alternate teams will choose which bowls they wish to attend in order of the hierarchy herein.  Thus, the lowest team in the hierarchy will get the last bowl that is left.

November 3, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 3-7, 2016

Time to Punt
We thought we would be a bit clever and go with a slate of longshots that if just one selection won, it would be a big “fake” payout last week. Alas, we came up a game short in every selection, and none of the parlays cashed a winning ticket.

We also decided not to play any NFL parlays last week, and as luck would have it, most of the favorites won, and almost any parlay we might have played would have won. Such is life. But, even had every parlay we selected won last week, our bank account would have remained the same. As we try to make sure everybody reading this weekly entry, we do this just for fun and never wager a penny. These days, when it is almost time to ask, “Brother can you spare a dime,” betting anything on anything would be quite foolish. And, when happy days were here again way back when, we didn’t want to part with any of that hard-earned money. Thus, the only real advice we can give is, “work hard, be frugal, and save for the future.”

In past years, we have offered our predictions about a once-every-four-year event that happens the day following the first Monday in November. We are totally unsure of what will happen, next Tuesday, so we will not go there this year. Our hope is that whatever happens Tuesday, that the nation will come together and realize that we all must pull the rope from the same side and not against each other, or else we might lose what took 240 years to put together.

Now, returning to football and mathematics, here is what we are going with this week.

College Selections
We decided to select a couple of underdogs to win outright this week, but we did not bundle them together for the almost 6 to 1 odds. We’d rather guarantee a small profit if just one wins rather than a windfall requiring both to win.

1. Oklahoma State +133 vs. Kansas State.
Our members here believe this is a 50-50 tossup, so getting better than 13-10 odds is a plus in this game. Oklahoma State seems to play up to its competition, while Kansas State has been quiet this year and has not really played what many believe could be its best game. Also, when a team pulls off a big upset at home one week and then goes on the road to face a quality opponent the next week, the opponent usually has a better chance to win. That is why we believe the Money Line odds are so high, and because we believe this Cowboys’ team knows the Big 12 Championship is possible, we believe OSU will overcome the trend and win this one outright.

2. Arkansas +174 vs. Florida
Everything we just said about Oklahoma State could apply to Florida this week. The Gators come off a big win over rival Georgia and now go on the road to face a quality team. There are two differences in this selection from the selection above. Arkansas had a bye week last week, giving the Razorbacks two weeks to prepare for this game. Also, Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen is expected to be near 100% for this game after suffering a knee injury against Auburn two weeks ago. Arkansas needs an upset win in November to guarantee bowl eligibility, and we believe a team like Florida is vulnerable in this game. An Arky loss could mean the Hogs would be 5-6 when they go to Missouri in the final game.

3. 3-team parlay @ +121

Wyoming over Utah State
Colorado over UCLA
North Carolina over Georgia Tech

Wyoming beat Boise State last week in Laramie, and the Cowboys now have the Mountain Division title in their crosshairs after being the consensus choice to finish in last place. Coach Craig Bohl might be positioning himself to be a top candidate for some Power 5 conference job openings. In the past, numerous former Wyoming coaches have gone on to bigger and better things, because winning on a state with miles and miles of open space and few high school football programs says that this coach is a great recruiter, great organizer, and great leader.
Just down the road in Boulder, Mike MacIntyre has the Colorado Buffaloes within striking distance of winning the Pac-12 South Division. UCLA is a wounded bear and limping to the finish with what looks like a losing record this year. Josh Rosen’s season-ending injury seems like Deja vu for the men from Westwood, as just about every great quarterback since Gary Beban seems to have suffered an injury at some point. We’ll go with the Buffs to win big in Boulder in a prime-time Thursday night game.
North Carolina had an extra week to prepare for Georgia Tech’s spread option offense. That is worth an extra 7-10 points to the Tar Heel defense, and UNC doesn’t need that many extra points to make this a comfortable win for Coastal Division co-leader.

4. 4-team parlay @ +180

South Carolina over Missouri
Virginia Tech over Duke
Temple over Connecticut
BYU over Cincinnati
South Carolina coach Will Muschamp was barbecued for his job at Florida, and a lot of fans and media thought his hiring at South Carolina was a mistake. The Gamecocks were picked to finish in last place inthe SEC East and overall by many sources, yet it looks like USC will become bowl eligible rather than settle in last place. To get to six wins, a win over struggling Missouri is a must, and we think the Gamecocks are not too cocky approaching this game coming off the upset of Tennessee.

Virginia Tech probably must run the table in the ACC in November to win the Coastal Division, because North Carolina might not lose another conference game. The Hokies hold the tiebreaker, but it probably won’t matter if they are 6-2. Duke can still get a bowl bid, mostly because they hold the number one spot in APR scores and would be the first team in the 5-7 sweepstakes if 5-7 teams are needed to fill bowl spots (expect at least 1 if not 3 to 5). Tech is plain better in this game and should win by double digits.

Temple coach Matt Rhule is one of the 10 best college coaches in America, and a bigger fish will eventually offer him a large payday to become their coach. It could be that Rhule will hold out until a certain big state school in the Keystone State has a job opening (for awhile that appeared to be ready to happen in 2017). The Owls are back in control of the AAC East with wins over the top three contenders in the division. A win at U Conn this weekend basically wraps up the division title for the second consecutive year.

BYU travels to the Queen City to take on a Cincinnati team that has dissension, and when a team is not on the same page, they suffer results similar to what the Bearcats are experiencing this year. We’ll go with the school playing as a team to beat the maybe more talented team on their home field.

4. 3-team Parlay at +117

Penn State over Iowa
Old Dominion over Marshall
Tulsa over East Carolina
Penn State is still alive for the Rose Bowl! Who could have imagined this a month ago when Coach James Franklin was on a very hot seat and not looking all that happy to be in Happy Valley? A win over Ohio State was a major shot in the arm for this once great program trying to find its way back from purgatory. If the Nittany Lions run the table, which they are capable of doing, and if Michigan wins out and makes the College Football Playoffs, the Rose Bowl could easily select Penn State as its substitute. Of course, this means that the home team must defeat a so-so Iowa team that hasn’t played consistently well this year after a great 2015 season.

Old Dominion has not been to a bowl in its short time in FBS football, but that is going to change this year. The Monarchs need just one more win to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is very favorable for as many as nine wins overall and almost assuredly eight. Marshall is suffering through a rebuilding year at 2-6 and still must play the four best teams in the division. We like ODU to become bowl eligible this week.

Tulsa was a dark horse candidate in the AAC West in the preseason–not to win the division, but just to become bowl eligible for a second year in a row after finishing 6-7 last year. Having to face Ohio State, Houston, Memphis, Navy, and Central Florida on the road would leave the Golden Hurricanes in a precarious position where they would have to all their home games just to guarantee a repeat of 6-6 in the regular season. Coach Phillip Montgomery has quietly installed the spread offense he brought from Baylor and has TU in line to win the West after the Hurricanes knocked off Memphis at the Liberty Bowl last week. The closing schedule is difficult, and the big game at Navy looms next week. In order for that game to really matter, Tulsa must win this week over a rebuilding East Carolina team that will give TU all they can handle, because ECU still holds very slim chances of becoming bowl eligible, and at 3-5, they must win this game. We’ll go with the home team and their big play offense.

6. NFL 3-team Parlay at +178

Kansas City over Jacksonville
Dallas over Cleveland
New Orleans over San Francisco
The 2016 version of the NFL does not allow us (or anybody else) to state matter of factly that any team is a sure thing to beat their next opponent. So, we will not tell you that these three favorites are so much better than the underdogs they are playing that this is almost free money this week. With the way things are going in 2016, chances are rather high that one of these weaker underdogs will win at home.

Jacksonville looked like an expansion team against Tennessee a week ago, so the Jaguars will probably play their best game of the season this week. However, the Chiefs are starting to resemble their teams in the last couple years where they get better and better every week, and their defense is creating a lot of offense with their takeaways.

Dallas is only a slim favorite against winless Cleveland, even though the Cowboys currently hold the number one seed in the NFC! The only sure thing in Cleveland this year is that the Browns will use as many quarterbacks as Terry Francona used pitchers in the World Series.

San Francisco looked terrific in week one, shutting out the hapless Los Angeles Rams. Since then, they have looked worse than Cleveland, while the Rams find themselves in contention for the playoffs. New Orleans began the year looking the exact opposite–like a team destined to lose double-digit games and maybe bring on regime change in the Crescent City. Now, the Saints are breathing down the Falcons’ necks, and it figures that Drew Brees and company should win this game by double digits.

October 27, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 27-31, 2016

The Hook
We talked about this in a previous posting, but we now have real data to show you why you should not wager real money on our picks. Last week, we hit a small bonanza, and we came within a few seconds of a major, albeit imaginary, windfall profit.

We issued four long shot money line parlays, each returning better than 2 to 1 odds. We won on two of the four and came within seconds of winning the third one. As it is, our profit from last week was 61% return on the investment. Had that third game that we lost in the last seconds been a winner as well, our profit would have exceeded 100% on the investment.

It’s the “last-second”, “one play,” “fluke play” stuff that hooks the investor to make him or her return the next week to wager more. We have no problem with this. We can wager “$500,000,” and it is the same as if we wagered “$1.” It’s just a fun exercise for a half dozen math geeks, four of whom are members of the fairer sex by the way.

What we have noticed so far this season is that our college picks are winning, while the NFL picks are not doing well at all. The 2016 NFL season has been too tipsy-turvy to hit on parlays. Sure, you can pick New England to win at -300, but that won’t help you much, because at -300, the Patriots basically have to win out to keep you from losing money. If they go 12-4, and you bet on them to win every week at a -300 average, you will invest $300 every week and win $100 12 times, while losing $300 four times. This would allow you to break even in theory, but New England doesn’t go off at -300 each week. They might lose at -450. They might win at -600 over a lousy team. Your invested amount won’t get you the profit to buy that new pearl necklace for that special lady in your life, or that new cell phone with the 16 megapixel camera to replace that camera that is best used to start a campfire.

Until otherwise determined to be safe, we are going to limit our money line parlays to college games only. The upset tendencies this time of year tend to be more conservative than the NFL.

For the season, our “just for fun only” picks have wagered on 31 money line parlay games, all at better than even money odds. We have won 10 of the 31 at an average of $283.25 (on $100 wagered) and lost the other 21 ($-100). This brings us a return of $-130 for the season, which is still a negative 4% return on investment. For what it’s worth, the college selections are responsible for 80% of the winnings, and those picks alone have a positive return on investment, which is why we are going only with college picks this week.

We are going to issue just three selections this week. All three are very long shots such that winning just any one of these three games will make our week an imaginary profitable one. One of the parlays combines two underdogs that we believe can win outright and return an incredible 6+ times what we are pretending to invest.

Look carefully at all three parlays. There is a reason they call them “long shots.” Chances are high that all three will lose, so be forewarned all you reading this with a URL from Las Vegas as well as all you that have figured out which two online books you can find to plug the numbers into a calculator and discover which book we used for each parlay. Remember this: just since we started this feature 15 minutes ago, three of the games that make up the parlays have changed the money line odds.

This Week’s Games

October 27-31,2016
1. College Parlay @ +295
Temple over Cincinnati
Indiana over Maryland
Memphis over Tulsa
Central Michigan over Kent St.
N. C. St. over Boston College
 
2. College Parlay @ +324
Toledo over Ohio
Wake Forest over Army
Southern Miss. over Marshall
Florida over Georgia
Tennessee over South Carolina
Penn St. over Purdue
Washington St. over Oregon St.
 
3. College Parlay @ +607
North Texas over UTSA
Kentucky over Missouri

 

 

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