PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	October 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas St.	Appalachian St.	-6.3	-6.6	-6.1

 

Thursday	October 11
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	Texas Tech	7.5	7.8	7.6
Texas St.	Georgia Southern	-17.3	-15.9	-18.5

 

Friday	October 12
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulsa	South Florida	-4.8	-8.0	-4.8
Utah	Arizona	15.0	14.9	15.3
San Diego St.	Air Force	10.9	10.7	12.2

 

Saturday	October 13
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Louisville	22.4	20.0	23.1
Virginia	Miami (Fla.)	-9.9	-8.1	-10.5
Eastern Michigan	Toledo	-1.7	-1.5	-0.8
South Carolina	Texas A&M	1.7	2.0	1.5
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana-Monroe	2.3	5.2	2.6
Illinois	Purdue	-11.6	-10.2	-12.1
Central Michigan	Ball St.	3.8	4.1	4.6
Georgia Tech	Duke	1.4	2.7	1.7
Maryland	Rutgers	22.8	22.3	23.8
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	-11.1	-11.3	-11.7
Charlotte	Western Kentucky	-7.0	-8.1	-8.3
East Carolina	Houston	-16.9	-17.7	-17.5
Buffalo	Akron	8.0	8.9	8.6
Old Dominion	Marshall	-6.6	-5.5	-7.8
Florida Int’l.	Middle Tennessee	0.6	3.4	0.2
Miami (O)	Kent St.	15.2	15.8	18.0
Utah St.	UNLV	23.9	23.7	24.8
Colorado St.	New Mexico	-1.5	-2.2	-1.7
Liberty	Troy	-9.3	-11.8	-10.8
Notre Dame	Pittsburgh	28.3	26.1	28.3
USC	Colorado	8.6	5.4	6.6
San Jose St.	Army	-21.7	-21.5	-23.7
Oregon	Washington	-7.7	-5.5	-8.5
Northern Illinois	Ohio U	5.3	5.0	4.7
UTSA	Louisiana Tech	-10.9	-8.8	-11.3
Bowling Green	Western Michigan	-9.1	-10.9	-10.2
Arkansas	Ole Miss	-0.3	-2.3	-1.5
Michigan	Wisconsin	9.6	10.9	10.3
Ohio St.	Minnesota	29.2	27.9	30.0
Navy	Temple	-8.5	-6.3	-10.0
Iowa St.	West Virginia	-0.5	-1.2	-0.2
North Texas	Southern Miss.	17.8	17.1	17.9
Northwestern	Nebraska	20.1	19.8	22.3
Indiana	Iowa	-11.4	-10.1	-10.9
Memphis	Central Florida	-10.2	-8.5	-9.9
Auburn	Tennessee	24.5	22.7	26.8
Texas	Baylor	13.3	13.9	13.4
Alabama	Missouri	28.3	27.8	28.9
Vanderbilt	Florida	-11.7	-9.6	-12.9
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.	-5.7	-5.4	-6.8
Rice	UAB	-20.8	-20.6	-23.2
LSU	Georgia	-13.1	-9.8	-13.1
Louisiana	New Mexico St.	5.7	5.8	6.3
Penn St.	Michigan St.	10.3	9.7	11.4
BYU	Hawaii	21.5	19.7	23.0
California	UCLA	13.8	11.5	15.6
Fresno St.	Wyoming	19.1	18.1	20.1
Nevada	Boise St.	-17.5	-17.1	-18.3

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
South Alabama	Alabama St.	29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.1	138.0	141.7	139.9
2	Clemson	133.6	131.0	134.1	132.9
3	Georgia	131.0	127.7	132.0	130.2
4	Ohio St.	128.7	126.6	129.2	128.2
5	Notre Dame	125.8	122.9	125.0	124.5
6	Washington	123.9	121.8	125.4	123.7
7	Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4
8	Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1
9	Oklahoma	119.4	118.0	119.7	119.0
10	Mississippi St.	119.6	117.1	120.3	119.0
11	Auburn	118.2	116.9	119.8	118.3
12	Miami	117.0	115.6	116.7	116.5
13	Wisconsin	117.2	114.5	116.7	116.1
14	Michigan St.	116.5	114.4	115.8	115.6
15	Central Florida	115.1	115.2	115.6	115.3
16	L S U	114.9	114.9	115.9	115.2
17	Missouri	114.8	113.2	115.8	114.6
18	Florida	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4
19	Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2
20	N. Carolina St.	114.2	113.6	114.1	114.0
21	West Virginia	114.5	113.6	113.8	113.9
22	Stanford	114.8	112.1	114.8	113.9
23	Utah	114.1	112.3	114.8	113.8
24	Boston College	114.5	111.9	114.1	113.5
25	Iowa	114.4	112.2	113.8	113.5
26	Oregon	113.2	113.2	113.9	113.4
27	Texas	113.9	112.6	113.6	113.3
28	Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2
29	Duke	114.1	111.8	113.5	113.2
30	Virginia Tech	113.1	112.2	112.9	112.7
31	T C U	113.2	112.2	112.0	112.4
32	Northwestern	112.8	111.1	113.0	112.3
33	Georgia Tech	112.4	111.5	112.2	112.1
34	S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.2	112.0
35	Boise St.	111.4	110.8	111.8	111.3
36	Oklahoma St.	111.7	109.9	111.7	111.1
37	Fresno St.	110.6	109.5	110.9	110.4
38	Iowa State	111.0	109.3	110.6	110.3
39	Syracuse	109.6	108.2	108.8	108.9
40	U S C	109.7	107.9	108.9	108.8
41	Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7
42	Texas Tech	108.7	107.3	107.4	107.8
43	Purdue	107.8	106.2	107.4	107.1
44	Arizona St.	107.6	106.3	107.2	107.0
45	Utah St.	106.1	107.4	107.5	107.0
46	Florida St.	107.1	106.5	106.8	106.8
47	California	107.3	104.8	106.7	106.3
48	Colorado	104.1	105.6	105.3	105.0
49	Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0
50	Virginia	104.1	104.6	103.2	104.0
51	Ole Miss	103.7	103.3	103.9	103.6
52	San Diego St.	102.8	103.1	103.9	103.2
53	Houston	102.9	103.5	103.1	103.2
54	Army	102.5	103.1	102.7	102.8
55	Memphis	101.9	103.7	102.7	102.8
56	Temple	102.4	102.4	103.3	102.7
57	Minnesota	102.5	101.7	102.2	102.1
58	Kansas St.	103.0	101.5	101.8	102.1
59	Wake Forest	103.5	101.1	101.2	101.9
60	Baylor	102.6	100.7	102.1	101.8
61	Arizona	102.2	100.5	102.5	101.7
62	N. Texas	99.6	102.0	100.4	100.6
63	Vanderbilt	100.4	100.8	100.3	100.5
64	BYU	99.9	100.2	100.5	100.2
65	Pittsburgh	100.4	99.8	99.6	100.0
66	Indiana	100.0	99.2	99.8	99.7
67	South Florida	98.6	100.8	98.9	99.4
68	Appalachian St.	98.4	100.1	99.9	99.4
69	Arkansas	100.4	97.9	99.4	99.2
70	Cincinnati	97.9	99.5	98.3	98.5
71	N. Carolina	99.0	97.9	98.2	98.4
72	Kansas	98.9	97.5	97.2	97.9
73	Buffalo	96.8	98.9	97.8	97.8
74	Toledo	97.4	98.5	97.1	97.7
75	Florida Atlantic	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4
76	Tennessee	96.7	97.1	96.0	96.6
77	U C L A	96.5	96.3	94.1	95.6
78	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.7	94.8	95.2
79	Air Force	94.9	95.4	94.7	95.0
80	Louisville	95.1	94.9	94.1	94.7
81	Nebraska	95.8	94.3	93.7	94.6
82	Wyoming	94.6	94.5	93.9	94.3
83	Tulane	94.2	94.6	94.0	94.3
84	Louisiana Tech	93.0	95.3	94.3	94.2
85	Illinois	94.2	94.0	93.4	93.9
86	Eastern Michigan	93.2	94.5	93.8	93.8
87	Marshall	92.5	95.0	93.3	93.6
88	U A B	92.3	94.7	92.9	93.3
89	Ohio U	92.6	93.8	93.1	93.2
90	Troy	92.1	93.6	93.6	93.1
91	Western Michigan	92.0	93.8	93.1	93.0
92	Miami (O)	91.6	93.3	94.0	93.0
93	Middle Tennessee	91.9	93.2	93.1	92.7
94	Akron	91.7	93.0	92.2	92.3
95	Navy	91.4	93.6	90.8	92.0
96	SMU	91.8	91.2	90.8	91.3
97	Florida Int’l.	89.5	93.6	90.3	91.1
98	Georgia Southern	90.0	91.6	90.8	90.8
99	Nevada	90.9	90.6	90.5	90.7
100	Tulsa	90.8	89.8	91.1	90.6
101	Arkansas St.	89.1	90.5	90.7	90.1
102	New Mexico	88.7	90.3	88.8	89.3
103	Central Michigan	85.4	87.9	85.9	86.4
104	Southern Miss.	84.7	87.8	85.5	86.0
105	U N L V	85.2	86.7	85.6	85.8
106	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.3	85.3	85.6
107	Oregon St.	86.6	84.2	84.8	85.2
108	Ball St.	84.1	86.4	83.8	84.8
109	Old Dominion	83.4	87.0	83.0	84.5
110	Colo. State	84.2	85.1	84.1	84.5
111	Massachusetts	83.2	85.1	84.1	84.1
112	Rutgers	85.0	84.0	83.1	84.0
113	East Carolina	83.0	82.8	82.6	82.8
114	Hawaii	82.4	84.5	81.5	82.8
115	U T S A	79.1	83.5	79.9	80.9
116	Bowling Green	80.4	80.5	80.4	80.4
117	Coastal Carolina	78.9	81.7	79.5	80.0
118	Georgia St.	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9
119	Louisiana	78.9	81.0	79.9	79.9
120	Liberty	79.8	78.8	79.8	79.5
121	UL-Monroe	79.1	79.0	79.4	79.2
122	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.5	79.1
123	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.8	77.0
124	N. Mexico St.	76.2	78.2	76.5	77.0
125	San Jose St.	77.3	78.1	75.5	77.0
126	Charlotte	74.6	76.8	74.5	75.3
127	Connecticut	73.3	73.6	71.9	72.9
128	U T E P	71.1	74.2	70.5	71.9
129	Texas State	70.2	73.2	69.8	71.1
130	Rice	69.0	71.6	67.2	69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	115.1	115.2	115.6	115.3	2-0	5-0
Temple	102.4	102.4	103.3	102.7	2-0	3-3
South Florida	98.6	100.8	98.9	99.4	1-0	5-0
Cincinnati	97.9	99.5	98.3	98.5	2-0	6-0
East Carolina	83.0	82.8	82.6	82.8	0-2	2-3
Connecticut	73.3	73.6	71.9	72.9	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	102.9	103.5	103.1	103.2	1-0	4-1
Memphis	101.9	103.7	102.7	102.8	1-2	4-2
Tulane	94.2	94.6	94.0	94.3	1-1	2-4
Navy	91.4	93.6	90.8	92.0	1-1	2-3
SMU	91.8	91.2	90.8	91.3	1-1	2-4
Tulsa	90.8	89.8	91.1	90.6	0-2	1-4
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.6	131.0	134.1	132.9	3-0	6-0
N. Carolina St.	114.2	113.6	114.1	114.0	1-0	5-0
Boston College	114.5	111.9	114.1	113.5	1-1	4-2
Syracuse	109.6	108.2	108.8	108.9	1-2	4-2
Florida St.	107.1	106.5	106.8	106.8	1-3	3-3
Wake Forest	103.5	101.1	101.2	101.9	0-2	3-3
Louisville	95.1	94.9	94.1	94.7	0-3	2-4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	117.0	115.6	116.7	116.5	2-0	5-1
Duke	114.1	111.8	113.5	113.2	0-1	4-1
Virginia Tech	113.1	112.2	112.9	112.7	2-0	3-2
Georgia Tech	112.4	111.5	112.2	112.1	1-2	3-3
Virginia	104.1	104.6	103.2	104.0	1-1	3-2
Pittsburgh	100.4	99.8	99.6	100.0	2-1	3-3
N. Carolina	99.0	97.9	98.2	98.4	1-1	1-3
ACC Averages	109.8	108.6	109.3	109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.4	118.0	119.7	119.0	2-1	5-1
West Virginia	114.5	113.6	113.8	113.9	3-0	5-0
Texas	113.9	112.6	113.6	113.3	3-0	5-1
T C U	113.2	112.2	112.0	112.4	1-1	3-2
Oklahoma St.	111.7	109.9	111.7	111.1	1-2	4-2
Iowa State	111.0	109.3	110.6	110.3	1-2	2-3
Texas Tech	108.7	107.3	107.4	107.8	1-1	3-2
Kansas St.	103.0	101.5	101.8	102.1	0-3	2-4
Baylor	102.6	100.7	102.1	101.8	2-1	4-2
Kansas	98.9	97.5	97.2	97.9	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	126.6	129.2	128.2	3-0	6-0
Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4	3-0	5-1
Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1	1-1	4-1
Michigan St.	116.5	114.4	115.8	115.6	2-1	3-2
Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0	1-1	3-2
Indiana	100.0	99.2	99.8	99.7	1-2	4-2
Rutgers	85.0	84.0	83.1	84.0	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.2	114.5	116.7	116.1	2-0	4-1
Iowa	114.4	112.2	113.8	113.5	1-1	4-1
Northwestern	112.8	111.1	113.0	112.3	2-1	2-3
Purdue	107.8	106.2	107.4	107.1	1-1	2-3
Minnesota	102.5	101.7	102.2	102.1	0-2	3-2
Nebraska	95.8	94.3	93.7	94.6	0-3	0-5
Illinois	94.2	94.0	93.4	93.9	1-1	3-2
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.6	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4	1-1	3-3
Marshall	92.5	95.0	93.3	93.6	1-1	3-2
Middle Tennessee	91.9	93.2	93.1	92.7	2-0	3-2
Florida Int’l.	89.5	93.6	90.3	91.1	1-0	3-2
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.3	85.3	85.6	0-1	1-4
Old Dominion	83.4	87.0	83.0	84.5	0-3	1-5
Charlotte	74.6	76.8	74.5	75.3	1-1	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.6	102.0	100.4	100.6	1-1	5-1
Louisiana Tech	93.0	95.3	94.3	94.2	1-1	3-2
U A B	92.3	94.7	92.9	93.3	2-0	4-1
Southern Miss.	84.7	87.8	85.5	86.0	1-0	2-2
U T S A	79.1	83.5	79.9	80.9	2-0	3-3
U T E P	71.1	74.2	70.5	71.9	0-2	0-6
Rice	69.0	71.6	67.2	69.3	0-2	1-5
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.6	86.3	86.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	125.8	122.9	125.0	124.5	x	6-0
Army	102.5	103.1	102.7	102.8	x	3-2
BYU	99.9	100.2	100.5	100.2	x	3-3
Massachusetts	83.2	85.1	84.1	84.1	x	2-5
Liberty	79.8	78.8	79.8	79.5	x	2-3
N. Mexico St.	76.2	78.2	76.5	77.0	x	2-4
Independents Averages	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	96.8	98.9	97.8	97.8	2-0	5-1
Ohio U	92.6	93.8	93.1	93.2	1-0	3-2
Miami (O)	91.6	93.3	94.0	93.0	2-1	2-4
Akron	91.7	93.0	92.2	92.3	0-1	2-2
Bowling Green	80.4	80.5	80.4	80.4	0-2	1-5
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.5	79.1	0-2	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.4	98.5	97.1	97.7	1-0	3-2
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.7	94.8	95.2	3-0	3-3
Eastern Michigan	93.2	94.5	93.8	93.8	0-3	2-4
Western Michigan	92.0	93.8	93.1	93.0	2-0	4-2
Central Michigan	85.4	87.9	85.9	86.4	0-2	1-5
Ball St.	84.1	86.4	83.8	84.8	1-1	2-4
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.4	110.8	111.8	111.3	1-1	3-2
Utah St.	106.1	107.4	107.5	107.0	1-0	4-1
Air Force	94.9	95.4	94.7	95.0	0-2	2-3
Wyoming	94.6	94.5	93.9	94.3	0-2	2-4
New Mexico	88.7	90.3	88.8	89.3	1-0	3-2
Colo. State	84.2	85.1	84.1	84.5	1-1	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.6	109.5	110.9	110.4	1-0	4-1
San Diego St.	102.8	103.1	103.9	103.2	1-0	4-1
Nevada	90.9	90.6	90.5	90.7	1-1	3-3
U N L V	85.2	86.7	85.6	85.8	0-1	2-3
Hawaii	82.4	84.5	81.5	82.8	3-0	6-1
San Jose St.	77.3	78.1	75.5	77.0	0-2	0-5
MWC Averages	94.1	94.7	94.1	94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	123.9	121.8	125.4	123.7	3-0	5-1
Stanford	114.8	112.1	114.8	113.9	2-1	4-2
Oregon	113.2	113.2	113.9	113.4	1-1	4-1
Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7	2-1	5-1
California	107.3	104.8	106.7	106.3	0-2	3-2
Oregon St.	86.6	84.2	84.8	85.2	0-3	1-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	114.1	112.3	114.8	113.8	1-2	3-2
U S C	109.7	107.9	108.9	108.8	2-1	3-2
Arizona St.	107.6	106.3	107.2	107.0	1-2	3-3
Colorado	104.1	105.6	105.3	105.0	2-0	5-0
Arizona	102.2	100.5	102.5	101.7	2-1	3-3
U C L A	96.5	96.3	94.1	95.6	0-2	0-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.0	127.7	132.0	130.2	4-0	6-0
Missouri	114.8	113.2	115.8	114.6	0-2	3-2
Florida	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4	3-1	5-1
Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2	3-1	5-1
S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.2	112.0	2-2	3-2
Vanderbilt	100.4	100.8	100.3	100.5	0-2	3-3
Tennessee	96.7	97.1	96.0	96.6	0-2	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.1	138.0	141.7	139.9	3-0	6-0
Mississippi St.	119.6	117.1	120.3	119.0	1-2	4-2
Auburn	118.2	116.9	119.8	118.3	1-2	4-2
L S U	114.9	114.9	115.9	115.2	2-1	5-1
Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2	2-1	4-2
Ole Miss	103.7	103.3	103.9	103.6	0-2	4-2
Arkansas	100.4	97.9	99.4	99.2	0-3	1-5
SEC Averages	113.9	112.6	114.4	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.4	100.1	99.9	99.4	1-0	3-1
Troy	92.1	93.6	93.6	93.1	3-0	5-1
Georgia Southern	90.0	91.6	90.8	90.8	2-0	4-1
Coastal Carolina	78.9	81.7	79.5	80.0	1-1	3-2
Georgia St.	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9	1-1	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.1	90.5	90.7	90.1	0-1	3-2
Louisiana	78.9	81.0	79.9	79.9	1-1	2-3
UL-Monroe	79.1	79.0	79.4	79.2	0-2	2-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.8	77.0	1-2	1-5
Texas State	70.2	73.2	69.8	71.1	0-2	1-4
Sun Belt Averages	83.2	85.0	84.0	84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.9	112.6	114.4	113.6
2	ACC	109.8	108.6	109.3	109.2
3	B12	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.6	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
7	IND	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
8	MWC	94.1	94.7	94.1	94.3
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.8	88.6	86.3	86.9
11	SUN	83.2	85.0	84.0	84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1	Central Florida
2	South Florida
3	Cincinnati
4	Fresno St.
5	San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Colorado
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Florida Atlantic	Louisiana
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	UAB
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[BYU]	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[Army]	[Marshall]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Utah]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Arizona St.]	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Utah St.]	Michigan St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Nevada]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	USC
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Duke
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	Washington St.
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Ohio St.	Clemson
Orange			Alabama	Notre Dame
National Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

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PiRate Ratings Selections for October 4-8, 2018

Another mediocre week by the PiRate Rating selections was offset by another spectacular week by three of our five Land Sharps.

Last week, our official picks went 4-7, to bring the total to date to 22-23-1.  This took our minor profit for the season to a minor loss of 5.7% Return on Investment.  We will include some Money Line parlays that give us better than +150 odds this week in an attempt to get back into the black.  In the past, we have done well when playing 4-game parlays that give us better than +150 odds, but we tend to cash in big on these parlays in November.  Hopefully, October will be nice to us.

As for the Land Sharps, Buckeye Michelle, Friday Dog 13, and Cal Gal Tiffany continue to draw the ire of the kind people in the State of Nevada.  If they keep up this streak, they will not be allowed to patronize the books (Note–every pick on this site is done strictly for entertainment purposes only, so they really have no connection with any books).

Dean615 and Stewed Meat have treaded water so far, as both as exactly .500 in their picks.  In Stewed’s defense, these are this Land Sharp’s “B” picks.  Stewed is a real professional, and Stewed A’s picks last week (college and NFL) went 8-3 including a Parlay win that returned 6 to 1 odds for a big profit.

This week, our Land Sharps have picked between 5 and 9 games.  Because we try not to do the same thing, and we include the NFL in our official picks, we are going with 9 selections–3 vs. spreads, 4, 10-point teasers, and 2 Money Line Parlays.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks 

Margins

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Akron	Miami (O)	3	Akron
Baltimore	Cleveland	3	Baltimore
San Francisco	Arizona	3.5	San Francisco

10-Point Teasers (3-team parlays)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Louisville	Georgia Tech	6.5	Georgia Tech
Boston College	North Carolina St.	5.5	North Carolina St.
LSU	Florida	13	Florida

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Alabama	Arkansas	24	Alabama
Clemson	Wake Forest	7.5	Clemson
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.	2.5	Miami (Fla.)

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
South Florida	Massachusetts	4	South Florida
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	3.5	Georgia Southern
Ole Miss	Louisiana-Monroe	2.5	Ole Miss

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Central Florida	SMU	14	Central Florida
Washington St.	Oregon St.	6.5	Washington St.
Fresno St.	Nevada	2	Fresno St.

 

Money Line Parlays

4 Teams at +168

Winner	Loser
North Carolina St.	Boston College
Troy	Georgia St.
UNLV	New Mexico
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.

 

4 Teams at +174

Winner	Loser
Liberty	New Mexico St.
South Florida	Massachusetts
Buffalo	Central Michigan
Georgia Southern	South Alabama

 

The Land Sharps

Buckeye Michelle

Year to Date: 14-6  70.0%, 37.0% Return on Investment

Connecticut +36 vs. Memphis

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

Minnesota +7.5 vs. Iowa

Air Force +3.5 vs. Navy

UAB +9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Friday Dog 13

Year to Date: 11-5 68.8%, 34.4% Return on Investment

Marshall -6 vs. Middle Tennessee

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Ole Miss -22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

West Virginia -28.5 vs. Kansas

Central Florida -24 vs. SMU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

South Florida -4 vs. Massachusetts

Syracuse -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

Year to Date: 17-9  65.4%, 27.3% Return on Investment

Utah St. +3 vs. BYU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida

Florida St. +13 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Southern -13.5 vs. South Alabama

Auburn -3 vs. Mississippi St.

Georgia -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Stewed Meat

Year to Date: 11-11  50.0%, -5% Return on Investment

Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Louisville

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

Florida +3 vs. LSU

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Colorado -2.5 vs. Arizona St.

Houston & Tulsa UNDER 70.5

Michigan & Maryland UNDER 49

 

Dean615

Year to Date: 7-7  50.0%, -5.0% Return on Investment

Notre Dame -6 vs. Virginia Tech

Wisconsin -17.5 vs. Nebraska

Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Kentucky

Florida & LSU UNDER 44.5

Notre Dame & Virginia Tech OVER 56.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 5

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday	September 27
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	18.6	18.2	19.1

 

Friday	September 28
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Memphis	-7.4	-9.6	-9.0
Colorado	UCLA	8.0	9.7	12.2

 

Saturday	September 29
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Army	2.8	4.8	4.3
Connecticut	Cincinnati	-13.1	-14.6	-14.7
Michigan St.	Central Michigan	40.2	35.2	39.4
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	0.9	1.6	2.1
Ball St.	Kent St.	3.5	4.9	3.3
Wake Forest	Rice	39.5	34.0	38.3
East Carolina	Old Dominion	5.3	1.1	5.3
Georgia Tech	Bowling Green	28.6	27.3	27.8
Boston College	Temple	20.7	17.8	20.0
Clemson	Syracuse	24.2	22.8	25.9
Appalachian St.	South Alabama	16.5	15.9	16.8
Duke	Virginia Tech	6.6	4.7	6.3
Georgia St.	UL-Monroe	-8.1	-5.2	-7.9
Ohio U	Massachusetts	13.2	12.1	12.3
Central Florida	Pittsburgh	14.1	14.5	15.1
Kentucky	South Carolina	2.2	2.0	2.1
North Carolina St.	Virginia	12.8	12.0	13.4
Rutgers	Indiana	-9.2	-9.3	-11.0
Air Force	Nevada	6.5	7.0	6.7
Washington St.	Utah	0.7	1.4	-1.3
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	24.8	25.8	26.3
Washington	BYU	26.1	23.1	27.3
Fresno St.	Toledo	16.0	12.7	15.8
Miami (O)	Western Michigan	-1.3	-1.4	0.3
Louisville	Florida St.	-4.9	-4.1	-5.2
Penn St.	Ohio St.	-2.6	-3.2	-2.9
Georgia Southern	Arkansas St.	-0.4	-0.4	-2.0
Georgia	Tennessee	39.3	35.0	41.7
New Mexico	Liberty	11.6	15.0	11.9
Auburn	Southern Miss.	41.8	37.3	43.5
TCU	Iowa St.	6.3	7.0	5.6
Alabama	Louisiana	63.2	59.2	64.1
Oklahoma	Baylor	18.7	19.4	19.8
UTSA	UTEP	12.3	13.7	13.8
Nebraska	Purdue	-9.5	-9.3	-11.5
Kansas St.	Texas	-6.4	-6.4	-6.9
Texas Tech	West Virginia	-1.9	-2.5	-2.9
North Texas	Louisiana Tech	13.6	13.8	13.4
UAB	Charlotte	17.0	17.0	17.1
Kansas	Oklahoma St.	-10.3	-9.6	-12.7
Western Kentucky	Marshall	-8.4	-7.8	-8.3
Mississippi St.	Florida	11.2	10.4	11.1
LSU	Ole Miss	13.3	13.8	13.9
Troy	Coastal Carolina	14.8	13.0	15.8
Middle Tennessee	Florida Atlantic	-6.5	-5.6	-6.0
Arizona	USC	-3.6	-3.4	-2.5
Wyoming	Boise St.	-14.0	-13.3	-14.7
San Jose St.	Hawaii	1.6	0.1	1.0
Notre Dame	Stanford	4.4	3.5	2.2
Northwestern	Michigan	-12.4	-13.2	-13.1
Texas A&M	Arkansas	17.6	19.0	19.7
California	Oregon	1.6	-1.5	0.6

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Vanderbilt	Tennessee St.	27.9
SMU	Houston Baptist	34.0
Florida Int’l.	Ark.-Pine Bluff	43.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	139.0	136.9	140.9	138.9
2	Georgia	131.9	128.2	133.3	131.1
3	Clemson	130.3	127.5	131.1	129.6
4	Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0
5	Washington	125.5	123.1	127.4	125.3
6	Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.9	124.1
7	Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1
8	Auburn	121.5	120.3	123.7	121.8
9	Michigan St.	122.3	120.1	121.9	121.5
10	Notre Dame	121.7	118.3	120.2	120.0
11	Mississippi St.	120.5	117.8	121.1	119.8
12	Stanford	120.3	117.8	120.9	119.7
13	Oklahoma	119.4	118.1	120.0	119.2
14	Wisconsin	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
15	Miami	116.3	114.9	116.1	115.8
16	Duke	115.9	113.5	115.5	115.0
17	Boston College	115.6	112.7	115.5	114.6
18	Missouri	114.5	112.9	115.7	114.3
19	L S U	113.7	113.8	114.7	114.1
20	Texas A&M	114.2	113.0	114.6	113.9
21	Boise St.	113.8	113.0	114.2	113.7
22	S. Carolina	113.9	112.9	113.7	113.5
23	N. Carolina St.	113.7	113.3	113.4	113.5
24	West Virginia	113.8	113.0	113.4	113.4
25	Central Florida	113.1	113.1	113.4	113.2
26	Kentucky	113.1	111.9	112.8	112.6
27	Oklahoma St.	112.8	110.9	113.1	112.2
28	T C U	113.0	112.0	111.8	112.2
29	Virginia Tech	112.3	111.8	112.2	112.1
30	Florida	112.4	110.5	113.0	111.9
31	Texas	112.6	111.2	112.0	111.9
32	Iowa	112.9	110.4	112.1	111.8
33	Oregon	111.1	111.3	111.7	111.4
34	Utah	111.4	109.6	112.3	111.1
35	Fresno St.	110.3	108.6	110.2	109.7
36	Iowa State	109.7	107.9	109.1	108.9
37	Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.2	108.7
38	California	109.7	106.9	109.3	108.6
39	Washington St.	109.1	108.1	108.0	108.4
40	Syracuse	109.1	107.7	108.2	108.3
41	U S C	108.9	107.1	108.1	108.0
42	Texas Tech	108.8	107.4	107.5	107.9
43	Arizona St.	108.3	106.9	108.0	107.7
44	Georgia Tech	108.3	107.0	107.6	107.7
45	Purdue	107.3	105.6	106.9	106.6
46	N. Texas	104.6	107.1	105.6	105.7
47	Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7
48	Wake Forest	106.9	104.4	104.4	105.2
49	Memphis	103.6	105.8	104.7	104.7
50	Utah St.	103.4	104.7	104.7	104.3
51	Virginia	103.9	104.4	103.0	103.8
52	Maryland	104.5	103.1	103.6	103.7
53	Ole Miss	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
54	Minnesota	103.4	102.9	103.3	103.2
55	Houston	102.6	103.4	102.8	102.9
56	Baylor	103.7	101.7	103.2	102.9
57	BYU	102.4	103.0	103.1	102.8
58	Colorado	101.4	103.0	102.7	102.4
59	Kansas St.	103.2	101.8	102.0	102.3
60	Arizona	102.4	100.8	102.6	101.9
61	Pittsburgh	102.0	101.6	101.3	101.7
62	Vanderbilt	100.7	101.3	100.6	100.9
63	Buffalo	99.2	101.5	100.5	100.4
64	N. Carolina	100.7	99.7	100.0	100.2
65	San Diego St.	99.5	99.9	100.4	99.9
66	Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.2	99.1
67	Army	98.8	99.2	98.7	98.9
68	South Florida	97.9	100.0	97.9	98.6
69	Florida Atlantic	98.2	98.5	98.7	98.5
70	Toledo	97.8	99.5	97.9	98.4
71	Kansas	99.5	98.2	97.4	98.4
72	Arkansas	99.6	96.9	97.9	98.1
73	Temple	97.9	97.9	98.5	98.1
74	Louisville	98.2	98.2	97.4	97.9
75	Wyoming	96.8	96.7	96.6	96.7
76	Appalachian St.	95.5	97.0	96.8	96.4
77	Navy	95.3	97.8	94.9	96.0
78	Marshall	94.5	97.2	95.6	95.8
79	Tennessee	95.6	96.2	94.5	95.4
80	U C L A	96.5	96.3	93.5	95.4
81	Akron	94.7	95.9	95.0	95.2
82	Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.3	95.2
83	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.5	94.6	95.0
84	Ohio U	93.8	94.9	94.3	94.3
85	Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.7	94.2	94.1
86	Cincinnati	93.3	95.0	93.6	93.9
87	Nebraska	94.8	93.3	92.4	93.5
88	Air Force	93.4	93.7	93.2	93.4
89	Tulane	93.2	93.2	92.7	93.0
90	Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9
91	Troy	91.3	92.5	92.8	92.2
92	Illinois	91.6	91.3	90.6	91.2
93	SMU	91.7	91.1	90.7	91.2
94	Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.8	91.0
95	Florida Int’l.	89.1	93.2	89.9	90.7
96	U N L V	89.7	91.2	90.1	90.3
97	Tulsa	90.6	89.4	90.9	90.3
98	U A B	89.1	91.3	89.3	89.9
99	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.4	90.1	89.9
100	Nevada	89.9	89.7	89.5	89.7
101	Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6
102	New Mexico	87.1	89.0	87.4	87.8
103	Georgia Southern	86.5	87.9	86.8	87.1
104	Rutgers	87.7	86.8	85.8	86.8
105	UL-Monroe	86.3	85.9	86.8	86.4
106	East Carolina	86.3	86.1	86.1	86.2
107	Central Michigan	84.2	86.9	84.6	85.2
108	W. Kentucky	83.7	86.9	84.8	85.1
109	Oregon St.	86.5	84.1	84.7	85.1
110	Massachusetts	83.6	85.8	85.0	84.8
111	Old Dominion	83.5	87.5	83.3	84.8
112	Southern Miss.	82.7	85.9	83.2	84.0
113	South Alabama	81.9	84.1	82.9	83.0
114	Colo. State	82.7	83.5	82.6	82.9
115	Bowling Green	82.2	82.3	82.3	82.3
116	Ball St.	81.5	83.9	81.0	82.1
117	Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0
118	Kent St.	80.5	81.5	80.1	80.7
119	Coastal Carolina	79.5	82.5	80.1	80.7
120	U T S A	78.8	83.1	79.4	80.5
121	Louisiana	78.8	80.7	79.8	79.8
122	Liberty	79.0	77.5	79.0	78.5
123	San Jose St.	78.7	79.5	76.9	78.4
124	Connecticut	77.7	77.9	76.4	77.3
125	Georgia St.	75.8	78.2	76.4	76.8
126	N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.8	75.5
127	Charlotte	74.6	76.9	74.7	75.4
128	Texas State	71.1	74.3	70.7	72.0
129	Rice	70.4	73.4	69.1	71.0
130	U T E P	68.5	71.5	67.7	69.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.1	113.1	113.4	113.2	1-0	3-0
South Florida	97.9	100.0	97.9	98.6	1-0	4-0
Temple	97.9	97.9	98.5	98.1	1-0	2-2
Cincinnati	93.3	95.0	93.6	93.9	0-0	4-0
East Carolina	86.3	86.1	86.1	86.2	0-1	1-2
Connecticut	77.7	77.9	76.4	77.3	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	103.6	105.8	104.7	104.7	0-1	3-1
Houston	102.6	103.4	102.8	102.9	0-0	3-1
Navy	95.3	97.8	94.9	96.0	1-1	2-2
Tulane	93.2	93.2	92.7	93.0	0-0	1-3
SMU	91.7	91.1	90.7	91.2	1-0	1-3
Tulsa	90.6	89.4	90.9	90.3	0-1	1-3
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.2	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	130.3	127.5	131.1	129.6	1-0	4-0
Boston College	115.6	112.7	115.5	114.6	1-0	3-1
N. Carolina St.	113.7	113.3	113.4	113.5	0-0	3-0
Syracuse	109.1	107.7	108.2	108.3	1-0	4-0
Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7	0-2	2-2
Wake Forest	106.9	104.4	104.4	105.2	0-1	2-2
Louisville	98.2	98.2	97.4	97.9	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	116.3	114.9	116.1	115.8	0-0	3-1
Duke	115.9	113.5	115.5	115.0	0-0	4-0
Virginia Tech	112.3	111.8	112.2	112.1	1-0	2-1
Georgia Tech	108.3	107.0	107.6	107.7	0-2	1-3
Virginia	103.9	104.4	103.0	103.8	1-0	3-1
Pittsburgh	102.0	101.6	101.3	101.7	1-1	2-2
N. Carolina	100.7	99.7	100.0	100.2	1-0	1-2
ACC Averages	110.0	108.7	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.4	118.1	120.0	119.2	1-0	4-0
West Virginia	113.8	113.0	113.4	113.4	1-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	112.8	110.9	113.1	112.2	0-1	3-1
T C U	113.0	112.0	111.8	112.2	0-1	2-2
Texas	112.6	111.2	112.0	111.9	1-0	3-1
Iowa State	109.7	107.9	109.1	108.9	0-1	1-2
Texas Tech	108.8	107.4	107.5	107.9	1-0	3-1
Baylor	103.7	101.7	103.2	102.9	1-0	3-1
Kansas St.	103.2	101.8	102.0	102.3	0-1	2-2
Kansas	99.5	98.2	97.4	98.4	0-1	2-2
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0	1-0	4-0
Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.9	124.1	1-0	3-1
Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1	1-0	4-0
Michigan St.	122.3	120.1	121.9	121.5	1-0	2-1
Maryland	104.5	103.1	103.6	103.7	1-0	3-1
Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.2	99.1	0-1	3-1
Rutgers	87.7	86.8	85.8	86.8	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	1-0	3-1
Iowa	112.9	110.4	112.1	111.8	0-1	3-1
Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.2	108.7	1-0	1-2
Purdue	107.3	105.6	106.9	106.6	0-1	1-3
Minnesota	103.4	102.9	103.3	103.2	0-1	3-1
Nebraska	94.8	93.3	92.4	93.5	0-1	0-3
Illinois	91.6	91.3	90.6	91.2	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.2	98.5	98.7	98.5	0-0	2-2
Marshall	94.5	97.2	95.6	95.8	0-0	2-1
Florida Int’l.	89.1	93.2	89.9	90.7	1-0	2-2
Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.4	90.1	89.9	0-0	1-2
W. Kentucky	83.7	86.9	84.8	85.1	0-0	1-3
Old Dominion	83.5	87.5	83.3	84.8	0-2	1-3
Charlotte	74.6	76.9	74.7	75.4	1-0	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	104.6	107.1	105.6	105.7	0-0	4-0
Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.3	95.2	0-0	2-1
U A B	89.1	91.3	89.3	89.9	0-0	2-1
Southern Miss.	82.7	85.9	83.2	84.0	1-0	2-1
U T S A	78.8	83.1	79.4	80.5	0-0	1-3
Rice	70.4	73.4	69.1	71.0	0-1	1-3
U T E P	68.5	71.5	67.7	69.2	0-0	0-4
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.7	118.3	120.2	120.0	x	4-0
BYU	102.4	103.0	103.1	102.8	x	3-1
Army	98.8	99.2	98.7	98.9	x	2-2
Massachusetts	83.6	85.8	85.0	84.8	x	2-3
Liberty	79.0	77.5	79.0	78.5	x	1-2
N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.8	75.5	x	1-4
Indep. Averages	93.4	93.4	93.5	93.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.2	101.5	100.5	100.4	1-0	4-0
Akron	94.7	95.9	95.0	95.2	0-0	2-1
Ohio U	93.8	94.9	94.3	94.3	0-0	1-2
Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6	1-0	1-3
Bowling Green	82.2	82.3	82.3	82.3	0-1	1-3
Kent St.	80.5	81.5	80.1	80.7	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.8	99.5	97.9	98.4	0-0	2-1
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.5	94.6	95.0	1-0	1-3
Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.7	94.2	94.1	0-1	2-2
Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9	0-0	2-2
Central Michigan	84.2	86.9	84.6	85.2	0-1	1-3
Ball St.	81.5	83.9	81.0	82.1	0-0	1-3
MAC Averages	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	113.8	113.0	114.2	113.7	0-0	2-1
Utah St.	103.4	104.7	104.7	104.3	1-0	3-1
Wyoming	96.8	96.7	96.6	96.7	0-0	2-2
Air Force	93.4	93.7	93.2	93.4	0-1	1-2
New Mexico	87.1	89.0	87.4	87.8	0-0	2-1
Colo. State	82.7	83.5	82.6	82.9	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.3	108.6	110.2	109.7	0-0	2-1
San Diego St.	99.5	99.9	100.4	99.9	0-0	3-1
U N L V	89.7	91.2	90.1	90.3	0-0	2-2
Nevada	89.9	89.7	89.5	89.7	0-0	2-2
Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0	1-0	4-1
San Jose St.	78.7	79.5	76.9	78.4	0-0	0-3
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	125.5	123.1	127.4	125.3	2-0	3-1
Stanford	120.3	117.8	120.9	119.7	2-0	4-0
Oregon	111.1	111.3	111.7	111.4	0-1	3-1
Washington St.	109.1	108.1	108.0	108.4	0-1	3-1
California	109.7	106.9	109.3	108.6	0-0	3-0
Oregon St.	86.5	84.1	84.7	85.1	0-1	1-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	111.4	109.6	112.3	111.1	0-1	2-1
U S C	108.9	107.1	108.1	108.0	1-1	2-2
Arizona St.	108.3	106.9	108.0	107.7	0-1	2-2
Colorado	101.4	103.0	102.7	102.4	0-0	3-0
Arizona	102.4	100.8	102.6	101.9	1-0	2-2
U C L A	96.5	96.3	93.5	95.4	0-0	0-3
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.2	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.9	128.2	133.3	131.1	2-0	4-0
Missouri	114.5	112.9	115.7	114.3	0-1	3-1
S. Carolina	113.9	112.9	113.7	113.5	1-1	2-1
Kentucky	113.1	111.9	112.8	112.6	2-0	4-0
Florida	112.4	110.5	113.0	111.9	1-1	3-1
Vanderbilt	100.7	101.3	100.6	100.9	0-1	2-2
Tennessee	95.6	96.2	94.5	95.4	0-1	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	139.0	136.9	140.9	138.9	2-0	4-0
Auburn	121.5	120.3	123.7	121.8	1-1	3-1
Mississippi St.	120.5	117.8	121.1	119.8	0-1	3-1
L S U	113.7	113.8	114.7	114.1	1-0	4-0
Texas A&M	114.2	113.0	114.6	113.9	0-1	2-2
Ole Miss	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4	0-1	3-1
Arkansas	99.6	96.9	97.9	98.1	0-1	1-3
SEC Averages	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	95.5	97.0	96.8	96.4	0-0	2-1
Troy	91.3	92.5	92.8	92.2	1-0	3-1
Georgia Southern	86.5	87.9	86.8	87.1	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	79.5	82.5	80.1	80.7	1-0	3-1
Georgia St.	75.8	78.2	76.4	76.8	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.8	91.0	0-0	3-1
UL-Monroe	86.3	85.9	86.8	86.4	0-1	2-2
South Alabama	81.9	84.1	82.9	83.0	1-0	1-3
Louisiana	78.8	80.7	79.8	79.8	0-1	1-2
Texas State	71.1	74.3	70.7	72.0	0-1	1-3
Sun Belt Averages	83.7	85.4	84.5	84.5

 

The Conference Ratings

 

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
2	ACC	110.0	108.7	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
5	P-12	107.6	106.2	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.2	95.5
7	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
8	IND	93.4	93.4	93.5	93.4
9	MAC	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.7	85.4	84.5	84.5

Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida

2. South Florida

3. North Texas

4. Cincinnati

5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	Southern Miss.
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Washington St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[UNLV]	Toledo
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	UAB
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Houston	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	[Army]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	[Utah]	Iowa St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Florida Atlantic	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Wyoming]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Akron]	[BYU]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virgnia	[Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia Tech	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	LSU
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Florida
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Miami (Fla.)	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Georgia Southern
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma	Oregon
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	Auburn
Peach	At-large	At-large	Notre Dame	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina St.	Colorado
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	USC
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Syracuse	South Carolina
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Kentucky
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Stanford	Ohio St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Mississippi St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton	FBS	PLAYOFF	Alabama	Penn St.
Orange	FBS	PLAYOFF	Clemson	Georgia
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Best TV Games This Week

All Game Times, Eastern Daylight

Games in Red Are Top 3 of the Day

Time	Home Team	Visitor	Network
12:00 PM	Clemson	Syracuse	ABC
12:00 PM	Buffalo	Army	CBSSN
12:00 PM	Texas Tech	West Virginia	ESPN2
12:20 PM	North Carolina St.	Virginia	ACCN
3:30 PM	Kansas St.	Texas	FS1
4:30 PM	Northwestern	Michigan	Fox
6:00 PM	Mississippi St.	Florida	ESPN
6:00 PM	Washington St.	Utah	Pac-12
7:00 PM	Duke	Virginia Tech	ESPN2
7:30 PM	Penn St.	Ohio St.	ABC
7:30 PM	Notre Dame	Stanford	NBC
7:30 PM	Kentucky	South Carolina	SEC
9:15 PM	LSU	Ole Miss	ESPN
10:30 PM	Fresno St.	Toledo	ESPNU
10:30 PM	California	Oregon	FS1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 13-17, 2018

We received a lot of comments last week from regular readers to this site that know how to contact us through another site.  We tend to keep our comments sections closed, because it becomes a task to monitor it for stuff that does not need to appear here.

The comments had nothing to do with our own picks last week.  We introduced five guest pickers, three of them members of the fairer sex, and overall, they had quite a successful week.

By far the overwhelming amount of responses were aimed at Buckeye Michelle.  The Ohio Transplant to the Sunny South merely went 5-0 picking 5 underdogs, and we received all kinds of comments pertaining to her, including a couple of marriage proposals.

Friday Dog 13 went 3-0 picking three prohibitive favorites that won by even larger scores than the line they were asked to cover.

Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2 in her seven picks, again, a very successful week that equates to a 56% Return on Investment.

Stewed Meat narrowly missed having a winning week, as Stewed went 2-3.  Bringing up the rear at 1-2 was Dean 615.

What about our own picks?  We suffered a lot of near misses and finished the week losing $90 imaginary after wagering $1,100 and going 5-6.  For the years, after two weeks, we are down $220 on a total of $1,700 wagered in our pretend bank account, so we are off to a bad year so far.

Just remember, all the picks you receive here this week and every week are free, and you should consider them worth exactly what you pay for them.

First, here are the PiRate’s official selections for the week.

Straight Spreads and Totals Selections–7

Favorite	Underdog	Spread/Total	Pick
Army	Hawaii	6	Army
Baylor	Duke	6.5	Duke
Minnesota	Miami (Ohio)	13	Minnesota
Denver	Oakland	46	Under
Washington	Indianapolis	47	Under
Cincinnati	Baltimore	1	Baltimore
Dallas	N.Y. Giants	3	Dallas

10-point Teaser Parlays–2

If you are unfamiliar with 10-point teasers, you can move the line by 10 points in your favor and play at less favorable odds than if you wager a straight wager against the spread or total.  By combining more than one game into a parlay, you can adjust the odds.  A 10-point teaser using three games makes the odds the same as wagering a straight wager.  You put up $11 of your money against $10 of the books, or what is referred to as -110 (You wager $110 versus the book wagering $100).

10-point teaser	3-team parlay -110
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Florida	Colorado St.	31	Colorado St.
Texas	USC	13.5	USC
Boston College	Wake Forest	15	Wake Forest

 

10-point teaser	3-team parlay -110
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Indiana	Ball St.	4	Indiana
Penn St.	Kent St.	24.5	Penn St.
Wisconsin	BYU	11	Wisconsin

The Land Sharps

Now for our special sharps–our 5 guest pickers.  They have been tasked with selecting 3, 5, 7, or 9 college games each week.  None of the 5 know what the other 4 are picking, so in some cases, more than one guest is picking the same game, and even though it did not happen this week, we are sure that at some point, they could be on opposite sides of the same game.

We search for the best available line at oddshark.com.

Buckeye Michelle (5-0 for the season)

Syracuse + 3 1/2 vs. Florida St.

LSU +10 vs. Auburn

Duke +6 1/2 vs. Baylor

San Diego St. +5 1/2 vs. Arizona St.

Toledo +10 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

Friday Dog 13 (3-0 for the season)

Missouri -6 vs. Purdue

Tennessee -30 1/2 vs. UTEP

Virginia -3 1/2 vs. Ohio

 

Cal Gal Tiffany  (5-2 for the season)

Florida Int’l. -4 vs. U Mass.

Army -6 vs. Hawaii

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

Washington – 6 1/2 vs. Utah

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Stewed Meat (2-3 for the season)

Colorado St. +20 1/2 vs. Florida

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

Oregon St. +3 1/2 vs. Nevada

Washington -6 1/2 vs. Utah

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

 

Dean 615 (1-2 for the season)

Notre Dame -14 vs. Vanderbilt

North Texas +7 vs. Arkansas

TCU +14 vs. Ohio St.

 

 

 

2018 Southeastern Conference Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.
Our Power 5 Conference preseason ratings and won-loss predictions were figured before knowing the outcome of recent suspensions to Coaches Urban Meyer and D.J. Durkin at Ohio State and Maryland. Because our ratings set 100.0 as average, and the mean of all 130 teams must be 100.0, taking points away from Ohio State and Maryland require redistributing points to the other 128 teams. Expect these ratings to change prior to August 25.

 
There is an old saying that the three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, the AFC, and the SEC. The Southeastern Conference is the big dog of college football. It is followed by zealots who treat it like a religion. The fans know more about an incoming freshman than most businesses know about new employees. Some fans basically take off from work on Wednesday to take their RVs on the road for a Saturday game. Tailgating in the SEC could be a regular TV program on the Food Network. SEC Football is one of the most successful industries in the world!

 

 

In an effort to show you a little more about how the PiRate Ratings are made, we are going to reveal one of the pre-season rating scores we apply to each team. We will show you the scores of each unit on the 14 teams. These include, the Offensive Line, Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Defensive Line, Linebackers, Defensive Backs, and Special Teams. This does not make up the entire rating. This is just one look at each team, but it is the one you don’t need to understand any advanced analytics to fully understand and appreciate.

 
Each unit is graded on a scale of 60-100 at the FBS level. The grades are 95% mechanical and could be performed by anybody that has the key to how the mechanical grading is made. The other 5% is a minor adjustment based on the players’ original recruiting rankings, which sometimes can predict a player to improve by more than another.
These scores look like school grades, but in this system, the difference between 70 and 90 is much less than the difference in test grades in schools. The difference in a 90 offensive line and a 70 offensive line can be as little as 3-4 points of PiRate Rating.

 
We take these grades and assign a weighting to the units. Obviously the quarterback is much more important than the long snapper. We add or subtract points based on depth, coaching changes, and other intangibles to come up with one part of the three PiRate Ratings. Each PiRate Rating has 5 to 7 different systems that measure talent and coaching of the 130 teams, which is why it takes basically 130 days to rate 130 teams. We start as soon as a team wraps up Spring Practice and sends out their Spring Media Guide. Last year’s final rating is the starting point, and all the preseason work presents a plus or minus adjustment to the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings.

 
Remember that these rankings include starters and reserves, and these are not Pro football draft ratings; an option quarterback might be rated ahead of a potential 1st round NFL selection, because we are only concerned with how the players affect the college game. Starters count for about 80% and reserves about 20% for each unit, unless the position has co-starters or the starting QB has yet to be named; there is a different algorithm for these instances. Also, these ratings do not include injuries incurred in August practices, so the sad news about Alabama losing outstanding outside linebacker Terrell Lewis is included in their score, but the recent loss of Christopher Allen is not. His injury will be reflected in Alabama’s opening rating against Louisville a week from Tuesday.

 
About the units: Tight ends are included in both the receivers and offensive line. Running backs are included as part of the receivers. When there is a true blocking fullback, he is part of the offensive line rating and contributes almost nothing to the running back score. If he is used as a receiver like an H-Back, then he is treated the same way as a tight end.

 
The style of defense factors minimally in the ratings for each unit. A 3-4 linebacker unit will be more important than a 4-2-5, so the linebackers will be given more weight in the algorithm at the end of the ratings’ process.

 

EAST

Florida
Quarterback: 80
Receivers: 83
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 91
Defensive Line: 94
Linebackers: 88
Defensive Backs: 93
Special Teams: 86

Outlook: The recovery period for the Gators will be brief. This team quit on the previous staff after narrow losses to LSU and Texas A&M. The defense is better than it played last year, and Mullen brought Todd Grantham with him from Mississippi State, where the Bulldogs were much better defensively than their talent level predicted.
The schedule is almost a dream. Three cupcakes in non-conference play, home games with Kentucky, LSU, Missouri, and South Carolina, and road games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt make nine wins possible and eight wins probable. The Gators aren’t ready to challenge Georgia for the East Division championship, but they figure to compete for number two in Mullen’s first year back at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The Captain Says: 5-3 in the conference and 8-4 overall

Georgia
Quarterback: 89
Receivers: 91
Offensive Line: 96
Running Backs: 97
Defensive Line: 93
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 95

Outlook: Normally, a team that lost as much as Georgia lost on defense would be expected to fall back by at least two wins if not more. Also, when a team that lost first and second round-drafted running backs, the offense lost might decline enough to cost the team another win. That is far from the case with Georgia. With potential future All-American Jake Fromm returning at quarterback after an incredible freshman year that saw him finish a close second in passing efficiency, Fromm should top 3,000 yards passing behind a top-notch offensive line. The defense returns more than enough talent to keep holding opponents to around 17 points per game, and the schedule gives the Bulldogs a chance to run the table to the SEC Championship Game.

The Captain Says: 7-1 in the SEC and 11-1 overall and berth in SEC Championship Game

Kentucky
Quarterback: 77
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 92
Defensive Line: 78
Linebackers: 90
Defensive Backs: 90
Special Teams: 84

Outlook: Mark Stoops has slowly increased the talent level in Lexington to the point where the Wildcats are just a little behind the teams competing for second place. Close losses to Florida and Ole Miss kept Kentucky from playing in the Outback or Gator Bowl last year. Depth concerns will hurt this team, just like it did last year, when the Wildcats ran out of gas following a 5-1 start.

The Captain Says: 2-6 in the SEC and 5-7 overall

Missouri
Quarterback: 94
Receivers: 89
Offensive Line: 94
Running Backs: 92
Defensive Line: 85
Linebackers: 86
Defensive Backs: 77
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Missouri will go as far as the passing game takes them. Drew Lock had a 202.9 passer efficiency ratings in the 7 wins, all against teams with losing records or an FCS member. His efficiency rating fell to 124.9 in the six losses, all to teams that played in bowls. The Tigers might win a game or two with their special teams.

The Captain Says: 3-5 in the SEC and 7-5 overall

South Carolina
Quarterback: 85
Receivers: 94
Offensive Line: 84
Running Backs: 84
Defensive Line: 86
Linebackers: 88
Defensive Backs: 88
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Will Muschamp has this team in contention for second place in the East, but the Gamecocks do not have a strong enough offensive or defensive line to compete with the Georgia’s and Alabama’s in this conference. South Carolina rarely dominates the stat box.

They were outgained by 258 yards in a season-opening win over North Carolina State, by 64 yards the following week in a win over Missouri, and by 54 yards in a win over Vanderbilt. Expect a better yardage output this year, but the Gamecocks are not likely to be +11 in turnovers, so the final outcome should be about the same.

The Captain Says: 5-3 in the SEC and 8-4 overall

Tennessee
Quarterback: 81
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 76
Running Backs: 79
Defensive Line: 80
Linebackers: 86
Defensive Backs: 83
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: Tennessee last competed for the SEC Championship in 2007. Derek Dooley and Butch Jones failed to make this program great again, and now the job is in the hands of Jeremy Pruitt. Pruitt is a tough disciplinarian with the ability to teach kindergarten, a rare combination. He’s also a top-notch recruiter, so it is only a matter of time before the talent level moves upward. 2018 will be a tough introduction to the head coaching world.

The Vols have decent talent on the defensive side of the ball, not enough to make noise in the SEC, but enough to win a couple times in the league and to lose games by fewer points. It’s up to the offense to move the ball and keep the defense off the field, and we don’t think the offense is up to the task.

The Captain says: 3-5 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Vanderbilt
Quarterback: 83
Receivers: 80
Offensive Line: 81
Running Backs: 74
Defensive Line: 76
Linebackers: 75
Defensive Backs: 81
Special Teams: 82

Outlook: Derek Mason’s defensive Midas Touch turned from gold to balsa wood last year. Coming off a bowl season, the Commodores were expected to compete for another in 2017. A 3-0 start looked like Vanderbilt might have been on its way to its third 8-win regular season of the decade. Three tough games with Alabama, Florida, and Georgia left the team battered and bruised, and the Commodore ship took on too much water. That great defense gave up 505 yards and 46 points per game in the seven conference losses.

The Commodores lost seven starters off that defense, and the 2018 edition could be a little weaker. The offense could not run the ball in SEC play, averaging just 79 yards per game in the seven losses.

The Captain Says: 1-7 in the SEC and 4-8 overall
WEST

Alabama
Quarterback: 96
Receivers: 86
Offensive Line: 96
Running Backs: 99
Defensive Line: 96
Linebackers: 95
Defensive Backs: 93
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: For anybody else in the league, maybe including Georgia, when a team lost as much talent as the Tide, they would be picked to drop from the national championship to maybe 9-3. When a team plugs new All-Americans into the lineup to replace those that just left, the only thing that changes are the names in the program.

Make no mistake about it: Alabama could be vulnerable against an excellent mobile quarterback that can evade the pass rush and find an open receiver (isn’t everybody vulnerable in this case). The Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson, and Chad Kelly type beat other Alabama defenses, so this could be the case in 2018. Who on the schedule has this type of quarterback with an offensive line that can protect him, and with receivers that can get open and pick up big yards? Well, they aren’t officially on the schedule, as least not until game number 15–Clemson.

The Captain says: 8-0 in the SEC and 12-0 overall and berth in SEC Championship Game
Arkansas
Quarterback: 78
Receivers: 81
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 87
Defensive Line: 79
Linebackers: 83
Defensive Backs: 79
Special Teams: 91

Outlook: The Bret Bielema era is over in Fayetteville, and grocers and restaurant owners are in mourning. Chad Morris brings his spread offense where the Razorbacks have been a pro-style power team in recent years. The talent level on both sides of the ball has fallen below the top teams in the league, and Arkansas is about on par with Kentucky in the other division. The two quarterbacks competing for the starting nod, Ty Storey and Cole Kelley, are both pro-style quarterbacks not necessarily equipped to run the Morris offense. The defense lacks a lot of quality talent, but new coordinator John Chavis will get more out of this unit than last year’s showing.

The Captain says: 2-6 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Auburn
Quarterback: 92
Receivers: 90
Offensive Line: 83
Running Backs: 87
Defensive Line: 94
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 92
Special Teams: 87

Outlook: Auburn has the talent to win the SEC Championship, but the schedule will prevent the Tigers from doing so. The Tigers must play the two division favorites plus dark horse Mississippi State on the road, and we wouldn’t pick the Cam Newton Auburn team to win all three games.
This could be the year where Auburn passes the ball for more than 250 yards per game. Jarrett Stidham has a stable full of race horse receivers and an offensive line that may be better at pass blocking than run blocking. The defense is still quite strong, so Auburn will compete in every game; it’s just that they will lose some close ones away from Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Captain says: 6-2 in the SEC and 9-3 overall

LSU
Quarterback: 78
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 85
Running Backs: 80
Defensive Line: 90
Linebackers: 92
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 87

Outlook: On paper, this might look like a team that is in danger of falling down to the bottom of the division. But, the Tigers still have a lot of talent, especially on defense, where it would not surprise us if LSU gives up less than 300 yards per game this year.

The offense looked to be a large negative with so much talent lost, but a little bird told us that recent Ohio State quarterback Joe Burrow is wowing the coaches in Baton Rouge. Since his arrival post Spring ball, two of the three quarterbacks expected to contend for a starting spot have transferred. Burrow had a 153.1 passer rating in very limited action with the Buckeyes. He has an accurate arm and plays with poise, but he has minimal game experience and dumped the ball to his backs even when he had open receivers downfield.

The Captain says: 3-5 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Mississippi
Quarterback: 81
Receivers: 96
Offensive Line: 88
Running Backs: 80
Defensive Line: 84
Linebackers: 79
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: Matt Luke should have been given a special award for keeping the Ole Miss team together and bringing normalcy back to the program. Old-timers like us see a lot of John Vaught in his ability to lead a team and play an open style of offense. Ole Miss is still on probation with a bowl-ban, and it will likely cost this team a bowl game for the second consecutive season, because the Rebels can pass the ball and defend the pass well enough to win half of their games.

Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu was quite effective when he finally took over as the starter. In the final five games, his 167.3 passer rating was the best in the league over the time period, and he averaged 321 yards per game in that stretch. Of course, it is a lot easier to have great passing stats when your receiving corps is more talented than three or four NFL teams. A.J. Brown might be a leading Heisman Trophy contender if he played for Notre Dame, Oklahoma, or USC.

The Captain says: 2-6 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Mississippi St.
Quarterback: 91
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 92
Running Backs: 90
Defensive Line: 93
Linebackers: 82
Defensive Backs: 90
Special Teams: 81

Outlook: Joe Moorhead comes to Starkville at the perfect time. He inherits all the pieces he needs to run a potent offense and play aggressive, smart defense. Except for the Alabama game, the Bulldogs can compete in the other 11. If Moorhead and defensive coordinator Bob Shoop can get improved play from the linebackers, and a couple of serviceable receivers can come forth to help take the heat off the running game, State could make a run at an 11-win season.

All this comes with a major caveat. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald must be 100% healthy and able to do the same thing this year that he did prior to the injury last year. If he stays healthy for 12 games, then State should have two, 1000-yard rushers.

The Captain says: 5-3 in the SEC and 9-3 overall

Texas A&M
Quarterback: 84
Receivers: 83
Offensive Line: 84
Running Backs: 86
Defensive Line: 88
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 85
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Jimbo Fisher figures to make a lot of changes in year one compared to how Kevin Sumlin ran the team. The offense will go from a spread passing game to a pro-style with more power running. Fisher is a great mentor of quarterbacks, but as of this writing, the starter for 2018 has not been decided. NIck Starkel is the better passer, while Kellen Mond adds a running aspect that Starkel does not have.

The Aggies are solid at all positions but not spectacular at any. They have experience at linebacker with Tyrel Dodson and Otaro Alaka back after combining for 182 tackles with 22 for loss and 11 sacks.

The Captain says: 4-4 in the SEC and 7-5 overall

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll

SEC
East	1st Place	Points
Georgia	271	1977
South Carolina	8	1535
Florida	4	1441
Missouri	0	1057
Kentucky	1	874
Tennessee	1	704
Vanderbilt	0	392
West	1st Place	Points
Alabama	263	1971
Auburn	19	1664
Mississippi St.	2	1239
Texas A&M	0	1091
LSU	0	1025
Ole Miss	0	578
Arkansas	0	412

The PiRate Ratings differ minimally

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	0-0	0-0	130.9	126.3	132.4	129.8
Missouri	0-0	0-0	114.4	112.7	116.0	114.3
S. Carolina	0-0	0-0	112.9	111.7	112.2	112.3
Florida	0-0	0-0	112.9	110.6	113.3	112.2
Kentucky	0-0	0-0	106.8	105.3	106.3	106.1
Tennessee	0-0	0-0	98.8	99.5	98.4	98.9
Vanderbilt	0-0	0-0	96.8	97.5	96.2	96.9
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	0-0	0-0	132.0	129.3	133.8	131.7
Auburn	0-0	0-0	122.0	121.2	124.4	122.5
Mississippi St.	0-0	0-0	122.5	119.2	122.7	121.5
L S U	0-0	0-0	110.1	110.3	110.7	110.4
Texas A&M	0-0	0-0	110.7	109.6	110.7	110.3
Arkansas	0-0	0-0	109.3	106.4	107.6	107.8
Ole Miss	0-0	0-0	105.3	105.1	106.1	105.5
SEC Averages			113.2	111.8	113.6	112.9

New Coaches
Dan Mullen isn’t a new coach to the league, but he is a new head coach at Florida. Mullen has a storied history with his new team. He tutored Tim Tebow during the Urban Meyer years when Florida won two national championships. He left Mississippi State stocked with incredible talent, and his recruiting efforts in Gainesville will quickly bring the Gators back to prominence.
Jeremy Pruitt has an incredible resume as a defensive genius, and he takes over a Tennessee team that did not play a lot of defense in recent years. Pruitt has produced top defenses at Georgia, Florida State, and Alabama, and he comes to Knoxville with multiple championship rings. His recruiting strengths in the Deep South should give the Volunteers a decent chance of returning to glory, but not for a few years.

Arkansas welcomes Chad Morris to Fayetteville after he turned the SMU program back into a bowl team. Morris brings his up-tempo,spread offense to the SEC West, where it has worked just fine at Auburn. The style is a complete contrast to former coach Bret Bielema’s power offense. Morris previously was offensive coordinator at Clemson and helped develop Deshaun Watson into a star.
Joe Moorhead takes over for Mullen at Mississippi State. Moorhead most recently was offensive coordinator for Penn State, where his offenses took off the last two years. He was the head coach of the Fordham Rams from 2012 to 2015, taking the Rams to three consecutive FCS Playoffs.

Jimbo Fisher takes over at Texas A&M after a brilliant career at Florida State, first as a coach-in-waiting under Bobby Bowden, and then as a national championship-winning head coach. His previous SEC experience included six years as quarterback coach under Tommy Tuberville at Auburn.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. Ohio State and Maryland could see their ratings change by large amounts depending on the outcome of the two coaching investigations.  The predicted won-loss records in the team capsules are more realistic.

SEC
Team	Conference	Overall
East
Georgia	8-0	12-1
Florida	6-2	9-3
South Carolina	6-2	9-3
Missouri	4-4	8-4
Kentucky	2-6	5-7
Vanderbilt	1-7	4-8
Tennessee	0-8	3-9
West
Alabama	8-0	13-0 *
Mississippi St.	7-1	11-1
Auburn	5-3	8-4
Texas A&M	4-4	7-5
Arkansas	3-5	7-5
Ole Miss	1-7	5-7
LSU	1-7	4-8

Bowl Tie-ins
1. Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA
2. Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL
3. Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL
3. Texas Bowl in Houston, TX
3. Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL
3. Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC
3. Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN
3. Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
9. Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA
9. Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL

Coming Tuesday–The PiRate Ratings return to the in-season format. Our first ratings for the pre-week one schedule debut for the 2018 season. A couple of early games begin the college football season on Saturday, August 25.

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 21-25, 2017

Ugh!  After a nice streak of winning weeks to get us into the black, albeit by a sliver, our picks wore the collar last week.  Now, we are 9% in the red with just a couple weeks left to go to try to make it three consecutive winning seasons.  Boycotting the NFL picks has really hurt us this year, but that had to be done.

Maybe with 5 picks this week, we can hit on something that we have not been able to do well in the last few years–hit big on rivalry week.  In past years, we have played it safe and issued only one or two parlays on this week.  When a 2-9 team plays its 9-2 rival, the outcome isn’t as cut and dry as the week before when 2-8 played 8-2 in a non-rivalry game.

We only went with five games to throw a lot of darts on the board and hope we can somehow come out with a high enough score to win.  We need to win any three of these parlays to put us back in the black for the year, but winning three of five during rivalry week is crazy.  So, if we do, it is more pure dumb luck than our strategy.

As always, this is just an exercise for fun among one PiRate Captain and his 5 lasses.

Date	Nov 21-25
#1 @ +147
Must Win	Must Lose
Akron	Kent St.
Florida Int’l.	Western Ky.
#2 @ +137
Must Win	Must Lose
Texas	Texas Tech
Tennessee	Vanderbilt
#3 @ +155
Must Win	Must Lose
La.-Lafayette	Georgia Southern
Florida St.	Florida
Clemson	South Carolina
#4 @ +154
Must Win	Must Lose
North Texas	Rice
Middle Tenn.	Old Dominion
Alabama	Auburn
Wisconsin	Minnesota
#5 @ +156
Must Win	Must Lose
Eastern Mich.	Bowling Green
Georgia	Georgia Tech
Northwestern	Illinois
Virginia Tech	Virginia
San Diego St.	New Mexico

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 9-11, 2017

The Captain has regained control of the helm, and he is steering the PiRate ship once again.  Actually, the lasses suffered a loss last week, and they were too shy to come up with any parlays this week.  The Captain on short notice was only able to create two parlays, as he believes this may be a week to look at other wagering philosophies with several key games being played.

If you are new to this site, this weekly feature picks money line parlays that go off at better than +120 odds.  As a general rule, we look for 3-game parlays, but in some cases (like today), we will combine four or more games, and in fact, we once issued a 7-game parlay at +225 odds and won the wager.

Here are this week’s two parlay selections.  As always, consider this when deciding how you will make use of this publication: No PiRate booty has been jeopardized in the making of this feature.  We only play with pretend currency when selecting our parlays.

#1 @ +170
Must Win	Must Lose
Northwestern	Purdue
South Carolina	Florida
Southern Miss.	Rice

#2 @ +157
Must Win	Must Lose
Pittsburgh	North Carolina
Florida Int’l.	Old Dominion
Missouri	Tennessee
Middle Tenn.	Charlotte

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 2-6, 2017

The PiRate Captain had to send up the white flag after his lasses staged a successful mutiny two weeks ago. Much to his chagrin and ego, the ladies proceeded to come up with back-to-back weeks of pillaging of the Vegas vessels.

Last week, they brought in enough booty to send the SS Fortune into the black for the season. They proceeded to return a profit on the investment of a whopping 147%, missing out on going a perfect 4 for 4 by one play in overtime in the Appy State-U Mass game.  For the season, the PiRate Account is now in the black with a very modest 1% ROI.

The Captain will note that in the previous two seasons, the period from the last of October to the first of December followed the same MO–the selection results went from red numbers to black numbers and clinched a profit for the overall seasons.
Now, the lasses are lobbying to change the name of the PiRate ship to Queen Anne’s Revenge. The Captain is worried that five swollen heads on the lovely ladies could lead to a return of some booty to the Nevada books, but the ladies are overly confident that they have zeroed in using their superior female intuition.

Once again, the ladies picked the teams they thought had the best chance of winning outright but at the same time went off as small favorites, total tossups, or even slight underdogs. The Captain merely served as their accountant, putting together the best possible parlays as far as favorable odds go, thanks to his knowing which of the 2 dozen reputable books had the best overall odds.

 
The PiRate lasses selected four money line parlays, each going off at better than +120 odds, which is the unwritten rule for this weekly feature. Actually, there are just three parlays this week, as the fourth selection is a single game where the ladies believe the underdog should be favored by at least a touchdown.

Enjoy the picks, but remember, neither the ladies nor the Captain ever wager real money on the outcomes of these games. The goal here is to have fun with math.

#1 @ +155
Must Win	Must Lose
North Texas	Louisiana Tech

#2 @ +144
Must Win	Must Lose
Georgia St.	Georgia Southern
Kentucky	Ole Miss

#3 @ +167
Must Win	Must Lose
Navy	Temple
Northwestern	Nebraska

#4 @ +204
Must Win	Must Lose
Missouri	Florida
UAB	Rice
Tulane	Cincinnati

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 26-28, 2017

Oh brother!  I leave my ladies in charge of the website for a few days, and when I return from a nice long weekend, they have rearranged all the e-furniture.  Worse, they exchanged the Money Line picks I had left with their own, and they actually enjoyed a winning week.  They issued four selections (totally different than what I had left to be published), and they won two of the four for a return on investment of 28%.

Believe me, I have not heard the end of this.  Mrs. Captain, of course, sided with her gender, and so this week, I must defer to the ladies to pick the parlays yet again.  All I have done is to organize their picks into the best possible parlay odds by sourcing the best odds from the available books.  What you have as a result are four more parlays, each returning greater than +120 odds (actually this week better than +150) while playing no more than three games per parlay.

Because the ladies selected to teams to win outright as underdogs, and to minimize risk, I have combined these two underdogs in one parlay that, if it wins, it would return an incredible payoff at +375 (a $100 investment would return $475).

One preface to this before you look at the parlays.  Two of the ladies here bleed scarlet and gray and believe that the Giant Horseshoe is a basilica, tabernacle, shrine, and temple.  They believe that script Ohio is akin to the holy scriptures.  Their key pick this week is Ohio State over Penn State, and to add to their partiality, they refer to the opponent at State Pen, and they believe James Franklin was set on Earth by Lucifer.

Personally, I see the Buckeyes ready to get their revenge, but I know Coach Franklin and have seen him work miracles at Vanderbilt.  If he could win at Georgia and Florida as a bigger underdog than his Nittany Lions will be tomorrow, then he can certainly channel his inner Tom Lasorda and get his team ready to run through the walls at said horseshoe.  I would not have selected this game as part of a parlay, but then I have ceded control of this submission to the lasses.

#1 @ +152
Must Win	Must Lose
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St.	Marshall
Georgia	Florida

#2 @ +162
Must Win	Must Lose
South Carolina	Vanderbilt
Notre Dame	NC State
Texas	Baylor

#3 @ +152
Must Win	Must Lose
SMU	Tulsa
Iowa	Minnesota
Ohio St.	Penn St.

#4 @ +375
Must Win	Must Lose
Northwestern	Michigan St.
Wyoming	New Mexico

Money Line Parlay Tutorial for newcomers to this site

If you are new to Money Lines and Parlays, hopefully this will explain it well enough for you to understand what is going on above.

When two sports teams play, the more familiar way to provide options for wagering is a pointspread.  For instance, say that Notre Dame is playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Alabama might be favored to win by 6 1/2 points.  In order for Alabama to win the game for those that bet on the Crimson Tide, they would have to win by 7 or more points.  If Notre Dame won or lost by 6 points or less, then those that wagered on Notre Dame would win their bets.

There is another way to bet on this game.  It is called the “Money Line.”  Pointspreads are not used.  Instead, you simply pick either Alabama or Notre Dame to win the game.  If you can bet on Alabama to win this game, even by one point, it sounds too good to be true.  Yes, there is a catch here.  In order to bet on Alabama, you must put up more money than the sports book, but if you bet on the underdog Irish to win the game, the book puts up more money than you.  This is why the wager is called a “money line.”

When you look at money line odds, the favorite will have a minus number, and the underdog will have a plus number, although there are times when a tossup game will have two minus numbers.  The reason for this is that the sports books must get their cut or vigorish.

Let’s look at a couple games to be played tonight.  Northern Illinois hosts Eastern Michigan, and NIU is a modest favorite.  The Money Line is available at about 15 sports books where one could make a wager in one’s home via the Internet.  The line may vary from site to sire, so it is best to shop around to find the best odds.

For our purposes in this tutorial, we will use one famous online sports book, Five Dimes.  At the present time, the Money Line odds at 5D for the NIU-EMU game is listed at:   Northern Illinois -275, Eastern Michigan +235.

If you want to wager on NIU, you must put up $275 for every $100 5 Dimes puts up.  If you wager $100 on NIU to win, you will $36.36 profit and receive back $136.36 if NIU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.  If you wager $100 on EMU to win, you will receive $275 profit and receive back $375 if EMU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.

When you combine two or more games into one money line wager, your odds improve, but your chances of winning all the games in the one wager go down.  Let’s say you want to combine three favorites into one betting wager.  Let’s say you are going to play a parlay that includes Favorite #1 at -250, Favorite #2 at -225, and Favorite #3 at -180.

How do yo determine what the odds would be on this parlay of three favorites, all of whom would have to win their games for you to win your wager?  I won’t bore you with the mathematical formula.  There is an easy way to figure the odds, and it is called a parlay calculator.  You don’t have to buy this from a Las Vegas book store.  They are available for free in many places online.  In our opinion, the parlay calculator at Vegasinsider.com is the easiest one to use.  You can find this calculator at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

First, we select $100 for the bet amount (you can put any other amount in this spot, but all of the PiRate Rating parlays are played at $100 per wager.  We simply input -250, -225-, and -180 adjacent to Team #1 Money Line, Team #2 Money Line, and Team #3 Money Line.  Then we click on “Calculate”, and we see the number $214.57 returned.  This means that if these three favorites we have selected all win their games, we will make a $214.57 profit and receive $314.57 in our account (The profit plus what we wagered).  If the three teams do not all win their games, we will be out the $100 we invested on this game.  It can be a headache to see two teams win their games, and then your final favored team loses in an upset due to a fourth quarter field goal, but it happens, and you have to live with it.

Our goal at the PiRate Ratings is to select parlays that return better than +120 odds, while betting mostly on favored teams.  We prefer to play no more than three games in a parlay, but there are times when we might play 6 or 7 prohibitive favorites when the odds look preferable.  We won a 7-team parlay once that returned +200 odds, and all 7 teams won by double-digits.  Of course, this is a rare event.  Every week, some big underdog will upset a favorite.  In recent weeks, we had some considerable underdogs pulling off big upsets.  Syracuse surprised Clemson.  Arizona State beat up on Washington, Arizona took out Washington State, Tulsa whipped Houston, Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Troy beat LSU.  These sure things that could have been included on parlays destroyed the selections.

As usual, read this and understand it: The PiRates never wager real currency on our selections.  We enjoy the fun that mathematics married to athletics brings a group of math geeks.  We only wager imaginary money on these games, and thus we have no worries about issuing these picks.  They are strictly for the fun of it, and enjoying a winning week is a win for mathematics and not our bank accounts.

Enjoy the games, but be just as wealthy on Sunday morning as you are on Saturday morning.

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ball St.	Toledo	-29.0	-26.8	-29.3
Georgia St.	South Alabama	-0.7	-3.5	-1.1
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	1.1	1.3	1.6
Oregon St.	Stanford	-25.0	-23.9	-25.8
Boston College	Florida St.	-11.7	-10.5	-10.5
Memphis	Tulane	12.3	11.5	11.9
SMU	Tulsa	4.6	4.9	5.2
Purdue	Nebraska	5.4	4.3	7.0
Kentucky	Tennessee	6.4	6.9	7.7
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	8.8	8.6	9.2
Akron	Buffalo	4.2	4.3	2.7
South Florida	Houston	13.5	12.7	14.7
Wake Forest	Louisville	-3.4	-3.8	-3.6
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	-19.1	-17.9	-19.6
Michigan	Rutgers	20.0	20.2	19.5
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	13.2	14.2	14.3
Massachusetts	Appalachian St.	-4.6	-3.5	-4.3
Pittsburgh	Virginia	6.2	6.9	5.1
Clemson	Georgia Tech	14.0	13.8	14.7
Connecticut	Missouri	-9.8	-5.3	-8.6
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	-11.3	-9.7	-12.0
Maryland	Indiana	-0.9	0.4	-1.6
Virginia Tech	Duke	18.5	18.7	20.2
Illinois	Wisconsin	-30.8	-26.5	-30.8
Coastal Carolina	Texas St.	3.9	2.4	6.4
Deleted	Game	0	0	0
Kansas	Kansas St.	-29.6	-26.4	-30.5
Iowa	Minnesota	9.5	8.5	10.0
Wyoming	New Mexico	7.2	6.1	5.5
New Mexico St.	Arkansas St.	-3.1	-6.4	-4.3
BYU	San Jose St.	15.0	14.8	15.1
UTEP	UTSA	-18.4	-17.3	-19.5
Idaho	Louisiana-Monroe	1.8	2.5	3.3
Colorado St.	Air Force	15.8	14.0	15.6
Southern Miss.	UAB	17.4	15.2	15.8
Colorado	California	3.9	4.7	3.2
Arizona St.	USC	-5.0	-5.3	-4.7
Rice	Louisiana Tech	-10.8	-11.4	-11.3
Oregon	Utah	5.3	1.8	3.9
Notre Dame	N. Carolina St.	5.7	4.9	6.3
Washington	UCLA	23.7	21.8	24.7
Troy	Georgia Southern	23.8	22.5	24.0
Northwestern	Michigan St.	10.4	7.1	9.5
Deleted	Game	0	0	0
North Texas	Old Dominion	3.4	2.7	3.9
Baylor	Texas	-12.9	-11.7	-13.7
Iowa St.	TCU	-6.6	-4.1	-6.1
Florida (n)	Georgia	-12.3	-13.6	-13.5
Western Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	0.6	-2.3	0.1
Arizona	Washington St.	-10.0	-8.7	-10.7
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	20.3	19.3	21.5
Ole Miss	Arkansas	6.4	5.5	5.6
Ohio St.	Penn St.	9.0	8.4	7.8
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	1.4	-1.5	0.5
Utah St.	Boise St.	-6.4	-5.5	-6.4
Fresno St.	UNLV	16.4	12.9	17.4
Hawaii	San Diego St.	-7.1	-6.2	-8.0

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Central Florida	Austin Peay	41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Penn St.
3	Georgia
4	TCU
5	Notre Dame
6	Clemson
7	Ohio St.
8	Wisconsin
9	Miami (Fla)
10	Central Florida
11	Washington
12	Oklahoma St.
13	Oklahoma
14	Michigan St.
15	Stanford
16	Virginia Tech
17	North Carolina St.
18	Washington St.
19	USC
20	Auburn
21	South Florida
22	Michigan
23	Texas A&M
24	Mississippi St.
25	LSU
26	Iowa St.
27	Memphis
28	Georgia Tech
29	Toledo
30	West Virginia
31	Iowa
32	Boise St.
33	South Carolina
34	Arizona St.
35	Navy
36	Louisville
37	Fresno St.
38	San Diego St.
39	Arizona
40	Florida St.
41	Wake Forest
42	Texas
43	Northwestern
44	UCLA
45	Florida
46	Boston College
47	Texas Tech
48	Marshall
49	Colorado St.
50	Kentucky
51	SMU
52	Syracuse
53	Oregon
54	Northern Illinois
55	Indiana
56	California
57	Utah
58	Purdue
59	Virginia
60	Western Michigan
61	Houston
62	Troy
63	Minnesota
64	Maryland
65	Appalachian St.
66	Kansas St.
67	Army
68	Florida Atlantic
69	Duke
70	Pittsburgh
71	Southern Miss.
72	Nebraska
73	Colorado
74	Tennessee
75	Ohio
76	Ole Miss
77	Arkansas St.
78	Vanderbilt
79	Tulane
80	Akron
81	Arkansas
82	Air Force
83	Rutgers
84	Wyoming
85	North Texas
86	Utah St.
87	UTSA
88	New Mexico
89	Louisiana Tech
90	Florida Int’l.
91	Western Kentucky
92	Missouri
93	Tulsa
94	Eastern Michigan
95	Central Michigan
96	Cincinnati
97	Temple
98	North Carolina
99	Buffalo
100	New Mexico St.
101	Miami (O)
102	Georgia St.
103	Middle Tennessee
104	South Alabama
105	Connecticut
106	Illinois
107	Baylor
108	UL-Monroe
109	UAB
110	East Carolina
111	Nevada
112	UNLV
113	Hawaii
114	Oregon St.
115	BYU
116	UL-Lafayette
117	Old Dominion
118	Kent St.
119	Idaho
120	Bowling Green
121	Massachusetts
122	Kansas
123	Ball St.
124	Coastal Carolina
125	Rice
126	Charlotte
127	San Jose St.
128	UTEP
129	Georgia Southern
130	Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	138.7	134.5	137.5	136.9
2	Ohio St.	135.9	133.3	135.8	135.0
3	Penn St.	129.9	127.9	131.0	129.6
4	Georgia	126.3	126.7	126.7	126.6
5	Washington	127.3	124.6	127.7	126.5
6	Clemson	127.5	124.9	127.0	126.5
7	Auburn	126.1	124.0	126.2	125.4
8	Oklahoma St.	124.3	123.2	125.1	124.2
9	Virginia Tech	122.2	121.6	122.5	122.1
10	Oklahoma	121.6	120.6	122.0	121.4
11	Miami	121.7	119.7	121.0	120.8
12	Notre Dame	121.0	119.5	121.8	120.7
13	Wisconsin	122.0	118.9	120.7	120.6
14	Stanford	121.2	119.8	120.6	120.5
15	T C U	120.9	118.6	121.4	120.3
16	Florida St.	120.7	119.5	119.3	119.9
17	N. Carolina St.	118.3	117.6	118.4	118.1
18	Washington St.	118.1	115.5	117.7	117.1
19	U S C	116.0	115.4	115.7	115.7
20	L S U	115.9	114.0	116.4	115.4
21	Georgia Tech	116.5	114.1	115.3	115.3
22	Texas	114.1	114.5	114.8	114.5
23	Central Florida	113.0	114.4	114.3	113.9
24	Florida	114.0	113.1	113.2	113.4
25	Louisville	113.4	112.4	113.3	113.0
26	Michigan	112.5	112.6	111.5	112.2
27	Kansas St.	112.2	112.2	112.1	112.2
28	South Florida	112.0	110.8	113.1	112.0
29	Iowa State	111.2	111.5	112.3	111.7
30	Mississippi St.	111.4	112.0	111.6	111.7
31	Syracuse	111.8	110.1	111.2	111.0
32	Northwestern	111.2	109.6	111.3	110.7
33	West Virginia	109.9	110.5	110.1	110.2
34	Iowa	110.1	110.2	109.9	110.1
35	Texas A&M	109.8	107.5	109.1	108.8
36	Arizona St.	108.1	107.1	108.0	107.7
37	S. Carolina	108.3	107.3	107.4	107.7
38	Kentucky	107.7	106.5	107.0	107.1
39	Wake Forest	107.6	106.1	107.2	106.9
40	U C L A	106.6	105.8	106.0	106.1
41	Boston College	106.0	106.0	105.9	106.0
42	Duke	106.7	105.9	105.3	106.0
43	Colo. State	105.8	104.6	105.9	105.4
44	Colorado	106.5	105.0	104.2	105.2
45	Oregon	106.2	104.1	104.9	105.1
46	Indiana	104.8	104.9	105.2	105.0
47	Pittsburgh	105.0	105.0	104.5	104.8
48	Michigan St.	103.7	105.5	104.8	104.7
49	Memphis	104.8	104.2	105.0	104.6
50	Utah	103.9	105.3	103.9	104.4
51	Arizona	105.1	103.8	104.0	104.3
52	California	105.6	103.3	103.9	104.3
53	Texas Tech	104.3	104.2	103.5	104.0
54	Minnesota	103.7	104.7	102.9	103.8
55	Ole Miss	104.7	103.2	103.1	103.7
56	Purdue	103.1	103.1	103.6	103.3
57	Boise St.	103.9	102.2	103.7	103.3
58	Tennessee	104.3	102.6	102.3	103.1
59	Toledo	102.2	102.2	103.7	102.7
60	Vanderbilt	102.5	101.7	101.2	101.8
61	Virginia	101.8	101.1	102.3	101.8
62	Navy	101.4	102.1	101.6	101.7
63	Houston	101.5	101.0	101.4	101.3
64	Maryland	100.9	102.3	100.6	101.2
65	Arkansas	101.3	100.7	100.5	100.9
66	Nebraska	100.7	101.8	99.6	100.7
67	Baylor	99.2	100.9	99.2	99.8
68	Western Michigan	99.4	98.2	100.5	99.4
69	N. Carolina	99.6	98.8	98.4	98.9
70	SMU	98.1	98.5	98.4	98.3
71	San Diego St.	97.8	97.9	98.5	98.1
72	Army	97.8	97.9	98.3	98.0
73	Missouri	98.8	96.7	97.8	97.8
74	Fresno St.	97.7	96.3	98.6	97.6
75	Tulsa	96.5	96.6	96.1	96.4
76	Eastern Michigan	95.9	95.5	96.3	95.9
77	Florida Atlantic	94.5	96.9	95.9	95.8
78	Tulane	95.5	95.6	96.1	95.7
79	Troy	95.7	95.8	95.2	95.6
80	Ohio U	94.8	95.9	95.8	95.5
81	Rutgers	95.5	95.4	95.0	95.3
82	Arkansas St.	94.3	95.6	95.8	95.2
83	Marshall	94.0	95.2	95.8	95.0
84	Appalachian St.	95.5	93.9	95.5	95.0
85	Wyoming	95.6	94.3	94.5	94.8
86	Northern Illinois	94.0	93.9	94.9	94.2
87	Utah St.	94.5	93.7	94.3	94.2
88	U T S A	92.4	94.4	93.7	93.5
89	Air Force	92.5	93.1	92.8	92.8
90	W. Kentucky	92.5	92.1	93.5	92.7
91	Temple	92.5	93.0	92.5	92.7
92	Oregon St.	93.2	92.9	91.8	92.6
93	Central Michigan	91.2	92.1	91.6	91.6
94	New Mexico	91.4	91.2	92.0	91.5
95	Miami (O)	88.4	90.5	89.7	89.5
96	Louisiana Tech	88.4	90.1	89.2	89.3
97	BYU	88.9	88.8	88.3	88.6
98	Massachusetts	88.5	87.9	88.6	88.3
99	Cincinnati	87.1	89.1	88.4	88.2
100	Illinois	88.2	89.5	86.9	88.2
101	N. Mexico St.	88.7	86.7	89.0	88.1
102	Southern Miss.	87.4	88.6	87.9	87.9
103	Akron	86.9	89.3	87.4	87.9
104	S. Alabama	86.6	89.0	86.8	87.5
105	Nevada	86.2	88.2	87.7	87.3
106	Connecticut	86.0	88.3	86.2	86.8
107	Buffalo	85.2	87.5	87.2	86.6
108	Hawaii	86.2	87.2	86.0	86.5
109	U N L V	84.3	86.4	84.2	85.0
110	Middle Tennessee	84.3	85.5	84.9	84.9
111	Florida Int’l.	83.7	84.0	84.5	84.1
112	N. Texas	82.9	84.6	83.4	83.6
113	Old Dominion	82.4	85.0	82.5	83.3
114	Georgia St.	83.4	83.0	83.2	83.2
115	East Carolina	82.1	83.7	81.9	82.6
116	UL-Lafayette	80.9	82.3	80.9	81.4
117	Kansas	80.6	83.7	79.6	81.3
118	UL-Monroe	80.9	81.7	80.0	80.9
119	Idaho	79.7	81.2	80.4	80.4
120	Bowling Green	78.7	79.6	79.1	79.1
121	Kent St.	77.0	78.6	77.3	77.6
122	San Jose St.	76.9	77.0	76.2	76.7
123	Rice	75.1	76.2	75.4	75.6
124	Georgia Southern	74.3	75.8	73.7	74.6
125	UAB	72.5	75.8	74.5	74.3
126	U T E P	72.0	75.0	72.2	73.1
127	Charlotte	72.0	74.3	72.3	72.9
128	Coastal Carolina	71.9	73.0	73.3	72.8
129	Ball St.	70.7	72.9	71.9	71.8
130	Texas St.	70.6	73.0	69.4	71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Florida	4-0	6-0	113.0	114.4	114.3	113.9
South Florida	4-0	7-0	112.0	110.8	113.1	112.0
Temple	1-3	3-5	92.5	93.0	92.5	92.7
Cincinnati	0-4	2-6	87.1	89.1	88.4	88.2
Connecticut	2-3	3-4	86.0	88.3	86.2	86.8
East Carolina	1-3	2-6	82.1	83.7	81.9	82.6
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	3-1	6-1	104.8	104.2	105.0	104.6
Navy	3-2	5-2	101.4	102.1	101.6	101.7
Houston	2-2	4-3	101.5	101.0	101.4	101.3
SMU	2-1	5-2	98.1	98.5	98.4	98.3
Tulsa	1-3	2-6	96.5	96.6	96.1	96.4
Tulane	1-2	3-4	95.5	95.6	96.1	95.7
AAC Averages			97.5	98.1	97.9	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	4-1	6-1	127.5	124.9	127.0	126.5
Florida St.	2-3	2-4	120.7	119.5	119.3	119.9
N. Carolina St.	4-0	6-1	118.3	117.6	118.4	118.1
Louisville	2-3	5-3	113.4	112.4	113.3	113.0
Syracuse	2-2	4-4	111.8	110.1	111.2	111.0
Wake Forest	1-3	4-3	107.6	106.1	107.2	106.9
Boston College	2-3	4-4	106.0	106.0	105.9	106.0
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	2-1	6-1	122.2	121.6	122.5	122.1
Miami	4-0	6-0	121.7	119.7	121.0	120.8
Georgia Tech	3-1	4-2	116.5	114.1	115.3	115.3
Duke	1-4	4-4	106.7	105.9	105.3	106.0
Pittsburgh	1-3	3-5	105.0	105.0	104.5	104.8
Virginia	2-1	5-2	101.8	101.1	102.3	101.8
N. Carolina	0-5	1-7	99.6	98.8	98.4	98.9
ACC Averages			112.8	111.6	112.2	112.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma St.	3-1	6-1	124.3	123.2	125.1	124.2
Oklahoma	3-1	6-1	121.6	120.6	122.0	121.4
T C U	4-0	7-0	120.9	118.6	121.4	120.3
Texas	2-2	3-4	114.1	114.5	114.8	114.5
Kansas St.	1-3	3-4	112.2	112.2	112.1	112.2
Iowa State	3-1	5-2	111.2	111.5	112.3	111.7
West Virginia	3-1	5-2	109.9	110.5	110.1	110.2
Texas Tech	1-3	4-3	104.3	104.2	103.5	104.0
Baylor	0-4	0-7	99.2	100.9	99.2	99.8
Kansas	0-4	1-6	80.6	83.7	79.6	81.3
Big 12 Averages			109.8	110.0	110.0	109.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	4-0	6-1	135.9	133.3	135.8	135.0
Penn St.	4-0	7-0	129.9	127.9	131.0	129.6
Michigan	2-2	5-2	112.5	112.6	111.5	112.2
Indiana	0-4	3-4	104.8	104.9	105.2	105.0
Michigan St.	4-0	6-1	103.7	105.5	104.8	104.7
Maryland	1-3	3-4	100.9	102.3	100.6	101.2
Rutgers	2-2	3-4	95.5	95.4	95.0	95.3
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	4-0	7-0	122.0	118.9	120.7	120.6
Northwestern	2-2	4-3	111.2	109.6	111.3	110.7
Iowa	1-3	4-3	110.1	110.2	109.9	110.1
Minnesota	1-3	4-3	103.7	104.7	102.9	103.8
Purdue	1-3	3-4	103.1	103.1	103.6	103.3
Nebraska	2-2	3-4	100.7	101.8	99.6	100.7
Illinois	0-4	2-5	88.2	89.5	86.9	88.2
Big Ten Averages			108.7	108.5	108.5	108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida Atlantic	3-0	4-3	94.5	96.9	95.9	95.8
Marshall	3-0	6-1	94.0	95.2	95.8	95.0
W. Kentucky	3-1	5-2	92.5	92.1	93.5	92.7
Middle Tennessee	1-3	3-5	84.3	85.5	84.9	84.9
Florida Int’l.	2-1	4-2	83.7	84.0	84.5	84.1
Old Dominion	0-3	2-5	82.4	85.0	82.5	83.3
Charlotte	1-3	1-7	72.0	74.3	72.3	72.9
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	1-2	4-2	92.4	94.4	93.7	93.5
Louisiana Tech	1-2	3-4	88.4	90.1	89.2	89.3
Southern Miss.	3-1	5-2	87.4	88.6	87.9	87.9
N. Texas	3-1	4-3	82.9	84.6	83.4	83.6
Rice	1-2	1-6	75.1	76.2	75.4	75.6
UAB	2-1	4-2	72.5	75.8	74.5	74.3
U T E P	0-3	0-7	72.0	75.0	72.2	73.1
CUSA Averages			83.9	85.6	84.7	84.7
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		6-1	121.0	119.5	121.8	120.7
Army		6-2	97.8	97.9	98.3	98.0
BYU		1-7	88.9	88.8	88.3	88.6
Massachusetts		1-6	88.5	87.9	88.6	88.3
Indep. Averages			99.0	98.5	99.2	98.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	3-1	6-2	94.8	95.9	95.8	95.5
Miami (O)	2-2	3-5	88.4	90.5	89.7	89.5
Akron	3-1	4-4	86.9	89.3	87.4	87.9
Buffalo	1-3	3-5	85.2	87.5	87.2	86.6
Bowling Green	1-3	1-7	78.7	79.6	79.1	79.1
Kent St.	1-3	2-6	77.0	78.6	77.3	77.6
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	3-0	6-1	102.2	102.2	103.7	102.7
Western Michigan	3-1	5-3	99.4	98.2	100.5	99.4
Eastern Michigan	0-3	2-5	95.9	95.5	96.3	95.9
Northern Illinois	3-0	5-2	94.0	93.9	94.9	94.2
Central Michigan	2-2	4-4	91.2	92.1	91.6	91.6
Ball St.	0-3	2-5	70.7	72.9	71.9	71.8
MAC Averages			88.7	89.7	89.6	89.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colo. State	4-0	6-2	105.8	104.6	105.9	105.4
Boise St.	3-0	5-2	103.9	102.2	103.7	103.3
Wyoming	2-1	4-3	95.6	94.3	94.5	94.8
Utah St.	2-2	4-4	94.5	93.7	94.3	94.2
Air Force	2-2	3-4	92.5	93.1	92.8	92.8
New Mexico	1-3	3-4	91.4	91.2	92.0	91.5
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	2-2	6-2	97.8	97.9	98.5	98.1
Fresno St.	4-0	5-2	97.7	96.3	98.6	97.6
Nevada	1-3	1-7	86.2	88.2	87.7	87.3
Hawaii	1-3	3-4	86.2	87.2	86.0	86.5
U N L V	1-3	2-5	84.3	86.4	84.2	85.0
San Jose St.	0-4	1-7	76.9	77.0	76.2	76.7
MWC Averages			92.7	92.7	92.9	92.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	3-1	6-1	127.3	124.6	127.7	126.5
Stanford	4-1	5-2	121.2	119.8	120.6	120.5
Washington St.	3-1	6-1	118.1	115.5	117.7	117.1
Oregon	1-4	4-4	106.2	104.1	104.9	105.1
California	1-4	4-4	105.6	103.3	103.9	104.3
Oregon St.	0-4	1-6	93.2	92.9	91.8	92.6
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	4-1	6-2	116.0	115.4	115.7	115.7
Arizona St.	3-1	4-3	108.1	107.1	108.0	107.7
U C L A	2-2	4-3	106.6	105.8	106.0	106.1
Colorado	1-4	4-4	106.5	105.0	104.2	105.2
Utah	1-3	4-3	103.9	105.3	103.9	104.4
Arizona	3-1	5-2	105.1	103.8	104.0	104.3
Pac-12 Averages			109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	4-0	7-0	126.3	126.7	126.7	126.6
Florida	3-2	3-3	114.0	113.1	113.2	113.4
S. Carolina	3-2	5-2	108.3	107.3	107.4	107.7
Kentucky	2-2	5-2	107.7	106.5	107.0	107.1
Tennessee	0-4	3-4	104.3	102.6	102.3	103.1
Vanderbilt	0-4	3-4	102.5	101.7	101.2	101.8
Missouri	0-4	2-5	98.8	96.7	97.8	97.8
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	5-0	8-0	138.7	134.5	137.5	136.9
Auburn	4-1	6-2	126.1	124.0	126.2	125.4
L S U	3-1	6-2	115.9	114.0	116.4	115.4
Mississippi St.	2-2	5-2	111.4	112.0	111.6	111.7
Texas A&M	3-1	5-2	109.8	107.5	109.1	108.8
Ole Miss	1-3	3-4	104.7	103.2	103.1	103.7
Arkansas	0-4	2-5	101.3	100.7	100.5	100.9
SEC Averages			112.1	110.7	111.4	111.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Troy	2-1	5-2	95.7	95.8	95.2	95.6
Arkansas St.	3-0	4-2	94.3	95.6	95.8	95.2
Appalachian St.	4-0	5-2	95.5	93.9	95.5	95.0
N. Mexico St.	1-2	3-4	88.7	86.7	89.0	88.1
S. Alabama	2-1	3-4	86.6	89.0	86.8	87.5
Georgia St.	2-1	3-3	83.4	83.0	83.2	83.2
UL-Lafayette	2-2	3-4	80.9	82.3	80.9	81.4
UL-Monroe	3-2	3-4	80.9	81.7	80.0	80.9
Idaho	1-2	2-5	79.7	81.2	80.4	80.4
Georgia Southern	0-2	0-6	74.3	75.8	73.7	74.6
Coastal Carolina	0-4	1-6	71.9	73.0	73.3	72.8
Texas St.	0-3	1-6	70.6	73.0	69.4	71.0
Sun Belt Averages			83.5	84.3	83.6	83.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	ACC	112.8	111.6	112.2	112.2
2	SEC	112.1	110.7	111.4	111.4
3	BIG 12	109.8	110.0	110.0	109.9
4	PAC-12	109.8	108.5	109.0	109.1
5	BIG TEN	108.7	108.5	108.5	108.6
6	INDEP.	99.0	98.5	99.2	98.9
7	AAC	97.5	98.1	97.9	97.9
8	MWC	92.7	92.7	92.9	92.8
9	MAC	88.7	89.7	89.6	89.3
10	CUSA	83.9	85.6	84.7	84.7
11	Sun Belt	83.5	84.3	83.6	83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	North Texas	South Alabama
Cure	AAC	SBC	Houston	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC 1	PAC-12 5	Colorado St.	Arizona
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	La. Tech	Fresno St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	N. Illinois	Troy
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Colorado]	Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas	CUSA 1	MAC	Fla. Atlantic	Toledo
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC 8-9	SMU	[UAB]
Armed Forces	Army	BIG TEN 8	Army	[Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Mich.	Arkansas St.
Hawaii	AAC	MWC	Navy	San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas	BIG 12 6	CUSA	Iowa St.	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC 7-9	BIG TEN 7	[Central Mich.]	Indiana
Cactus	BIG 12 5	PAC-12 6	Kansas St.	Utah
Independence	ACC 7-9	SEC 8-9	Virginia	[UTSA]
Pinstripe	ACC 3-6	BIG TEN 5	Syracuse	Purdue
Foster Farms	BIG TEN 6	PAC-12 8	Iowa	USC
Texas	BIG 12 3	SEC 2-7	Texas	Mississippi St.
Military	AAC 7-9	ACC 7-9	[Western Ky.]	Boston Coll.
Camping World	ACC 2	BIG 12 2	Virginia Tech	West Virginia
Holiday	BIG TEN 3	PAC-12 2	Northwestern	Stanford
Alamo	BIG 12 1	PAC-12 1	Oklahoma	Washington St.
Belk	ACC 3-6	SEC 2-7	Georgia Tech	Florida
Sun	ACC 3-6	Pac-12	Louisville	Oregon
Music City	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	N. Carolina St.	Auburn
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Wyoming	Georgia St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	TCU	Arizona St.
Taxslayer	ACC 3-6/B10 4	SEC 2-7	Michigan	South Carolina
Liberty	BIG 12 4	SEC 2-7	Texas Tech	Kentucky
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Wisconsin	Washington
Orange	ACC 1	SEC 1/B10 1	Miami (Fla.)	Penn St.
Outback	BIG TEN 2	SEC 2-7	Michigan St.	LSU
Peach	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma St.	Central Florida
Citrus	B10 1/ACC 2	SEC 1	Clemson	Texas A&M
Rose	Playoff	Semi-final	Ohio St.	Georgia
Sugar	Playoff	Semi-final	Alabama	Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1