PiRate College Football Ratings: September 3, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday	September 6
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rice	Wake Forest	-21.7	-19.5	-22.2
Boise St.	Marshall	16.3	16.3	16.0
Saturday	September 7
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Pittsburgh	Ohio	13.7	14.6	11.6
Virginia Tech	Old Dominion	35.6	35.7	36.2
Akron	UAB	-1.6	-3.5	-2.3
Michigan	Army	21.5	19.6	22.1
Purdue	Vanderbilt	6.9	8.1	7.2
Iowa	Rutgers	25.8	23.0	25.7
Maryland	Syracuse	-4.9	-5.0	-6.2
Missouri	West Virginia	9.6	6.9	10.0
Ohio St.	Cincinnati	16.5	16.2	16.6
Kansas St.	Bowling Green	30.1	30.0	29.4
Utah	Northern Illinois	25.1	24.8	25.4
Georgia Tech	South Florida	12.7	10.1	13.5
Colorado	Nebraska	-2.7	-4.9	-2.3
Clemson	Texas A&M	18.2	15.5	20.4
Wisconsin	Central Michigan	39.1	37.5	38.7
Appalachian St.	Charlotte	21.3	18.5	19.9
Mississippi St.	Southern Miss.	23.8	21.5	23.0
Connecticut	Illinois	-23.6	-20.2	-24.6
Baylor	UTSA	35.1	32.2	34.9
Alabama	New Mexico St.	60.8	53.3	61.9
UCLA	San Diego St.	14.5	12.0	14.0
Florida St.	Louisiana-Monroe	19.1	19.2	19.3
Texas St.	Wyoming	-9.9	-11.4	-11.0
SMU	North Texas	8.0	7.9	7.5
Tennessee	BYU	8.5	8.2	6.7
Florida Atlantic	Central Florida	-15.9	-15.7	-16.3
Florida Int’l.	Western Kentucky	8.8	7.9	7.8
Kansas	Coastal Carolina	16.7	16.8	17.5
Louisiana	Liberty	8.7	7.3	7.3
Michigan St.	Western Michigan	17.8	18.8	17.7
Texas	LSU	-11.2	-8.4	-10.6
Auburn	Tulane	21.5	18.5	20.3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	5.4	3.4	5.0
Oregon	Nevada	21.7	20.0	23.0
Penn St.	Buffalo	33.1	31.1	32.0
Kentucky	Eastern Michigan	22.3	20.8	20.4
Texas Tech	UTEP	44.3	38.6	42.9
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	-7.1	-4.4	-6.8
USC	Stanford	-2.4	0.0	-2.1
Washington	California	9.3	8.4	9.2
Fresno St.	Minnesota	-8.4	-7.2	-6.5
Hawaii	Oregon St.	6.7	7.5	7.7

San Jose St.	Tulsa	-4.3	-2.4	-6.2
UNLV	Arkansas St.	-1.5	0.9	-1.0

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home	Visitor		PiRate
Virginia	William & Mary		35.8
Arizona St.	Sacramento St.		33.7
South Carolina	Charleston Sou.		38.6
Memphis	Southern U		36.4
Kent St.	Kennesaw St.		-1.8
North Carolina St.	Western Carolina		41.0
Ball St.	Fordham		25.9
Miami (O)	Tennessee Tech		35.1
Massachusetts	Southern Illinois		4.6
Indiana	Eastern Illinois		32.1
Boston College	Richmond		35.0
Louisiana Tech	Grambling		26.4
Georgia	Murray St.		52.3
Colorado St.	Western Illinois		6.4
Washington St.	Northern Colorado		41.9
East Carolina	Gardner-Webb		24.1
Georgia Southern	Maine		10.2
Duke	North Carolina A&T		26.9
Georgia St.	Furman		7.0
Louisville	Eastern Kentucky		19.9
Oklahoma St.	McNeese St.		36.8
South Alabama	Jackson St.		24.4
Oklahoma	South Dakota		38.3
Middle Tennessee	Tennessee St.		25.9
Florida	UT-Martin		42.6
Utah St.	Stony Brook		27.5
Houston	Prairie View		28.6
Arizona	Northern Arizona		23.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.8	131.5	136.7	134.6
2	Clemson	134.0	130.3	135.0	133.1
3	Georgia	125.9	123.9	126.3	125.4
4	L S U	126.1	123.3	125.0	124.8
5	Ohio St.	121.6	119.8	121.8	121.1
6	Michigan	121.3	119.3	121.8	120.8
7	Notre Dame	120.2	118.4	120.2	119.6
8	Oklahoma	119.9	118.9	119.6	119.5
9	Florida	120.0	117.1	119.0	118.7
10	Texas A&M	118.6	117.1	117.2	117.7
11	Penn St.	117.0	115.9	116.9	116.6
12	Utah	116.8	115.2	117.2	116.4
13	Auburn	117.2	114.8	116.5	116.2
14	Michigan St.	115.9	115.6	116.1	115.9
15	Mississippi St.	116.5	111.8	116.0	114.8
16	Wisconsin	114.4	113.9	114.1	114.1
17	Iowa	115.0	112.5	114.7	114.0
18	Oregon	113.1	113.1	114.2	113.5
19	Washington	113.3	112.5	114.4	113.4
20	Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0
21	Syracuse	112.0	111.8	112.3	112.0
22	Texas	111.9	111.8	111.5	111.7
23	Missouri	112.5	109.6	112.4	111.5
24	South Carolina	111.0	109.6	111.0	110.5
25	Minnesota	111.0	110.4	109.8	110.4
26	Baylor	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2
27	Iowa St.	110.0	110.4	109.9	110.1
28	Northwestern	110.7	109.7	109.7	110.0
29	Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.7	111.2	110.0
30	Oklahoma St.	109.8	110.4	109.3	109.8
31	Central Florida	109.3	108.3	110.4	109.3
32	Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1
33	Stanford	109.3	108.2	109.4	109.0
34	Virginia Tech	107.7	108.0	108.2	108.0
35	Purdue	108.2	108.1	107.6	108.0
36	Texas Tech	108.0	108.1	107.1	107.7
37	Indiana	108.6	106.8	107.4	107.6
38	Kentucky	108.4	107.2	107.2	107.6
39	Kansas St.	107.7	107.5	107.3	107.5
40	California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4
41	Arizona St.	107.3	106.3	107.7	107.1
42	Cincinnati	107.6	106.0	107.7	107.1
43	Tennessee	107.1	106.9	105.5	106.5
44	Boise St.	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.5
45	Nebraska	105.6	107.3	105.2	106.0
46	U C L A	106.0	105.6	105.3	105.7
47	West Virginia	105.9	105.7	105.4	105.6
48	Pittsburgh	105.9	105.6	105.2	105.6
49	Utah St.	105.4	104.2	106.8	105.4
50	Boston College	104.9	104.6	105.6	105.0
51	Florida St.	104.4	104.8	104.4	104.6
52	Appalachian St.	105.5	103.4	104.6	104.5
53	U S C	103.8	105.2	104.3	104.5
54	Memphis	104.0	103.5	105.1	104.2
55	Vanderbilt	104.3	103.0	103.4	103.6
56	North Carolina St.	103.2	103.2	104.0	103.5
57	Maryland	104.0	103.5	102.8	103.4
58	Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.7	103.4
59	Duke	103.5	102.9	103.2	103.2
60	North Carolina	102.0	103.2	103.4	102.9
61	Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7
62	T C U	101.1	104.9	101.5	102.5
63	Temple	102.4	101.2	103.7	102.4
64	BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.0	100.9	100.8	101.2
66	Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9
67	Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.3	100.0
68	Illinois	99.9	100.8	99.3	100.0
69	Western Michigan	100.1	98.7	100.4	99.7
70	Colorado	99.9	99.4	99.9	99.7
71	SMU	99.5	98.7	99.9	99.4
72	Georgia Tech	99.6	97.6	100.3	99.2
73	Arkansas	99.0	100.0	98.3	99.1
74	Tulane	98.7	99.3	99.1	99.0
75	Air Force	97.7	99.0	98.5	98.4
76	Hawaii	97.3	99.3	96.9	97.8
77	Wyoming	96.7	99.1	97.6	97.8
78	Houston	96.0	97.2	98.7	97.3
79	Ohio	96.3	95.0	97.8	96.4
80	Georgia Southern	95.9	95.1	95.1	95.4
81	Kansas	95.0	96.2	94.7	95.3
82	Nevada	94.4	96.1	94.2	94.9
83	Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9
84	Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8
85	San Diego St.	94.1	96.1	93.8	94.7
86	Oregon St.	94.6	95.8	93.2	94.5
87	Northern Illinois	94.7	93.4	94.8	94.3
88	Southern Miss.	94.7	92.3	95.0	94.0
89	Louisiana	93.8	93.9	92.9	93.5
90	Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2
91	North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1
92	Rutgers	92.2	92.5	92.0	92.2
93	Middle Tennessee	91.8	91.0	92.1	91.6
94	Tulsa	91.2	91.6	92.1	91.6
95	Toledo	91.2	91.4	92.3	91.6
96	Florida Atlantic	91.4	90.6	92.1	91.4
97	Florida Int’l.	91.2	91.0	91.7	91.3
98	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2
99	South Florida	90.4	91.5	90.5	90.8
100	Miami (Ohio)	90.8	89.1	91.3	90.4
101	Louisiana Tech	90.6	90.2	90.4	90.4
102	Eastern Michigan	89.1	89.4	89.8	89.5
103	Louisiana-Monroe	89.1	89.8	89.1	89.3
104	Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9
105	Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7
106	Navy	86.9	89.9	86.5	87.8
107	U N L V	86.8	89.3	86.9	87.7
108	Buffalo	87.0	87.8	88.0	87.6
109	Ball St.	87.1	86.7	86.8	86.9
110	Charlotte	86.3	86.9	86.7	86.6
111	Western Kentucky	85.4	86.2	86.9	86.1
112	Kent St.	85.6	85.8	86.0	85.8
113	U A B	84.7	86.6	85.2	85.5
114	East Carolina	84.5	86.6	84.2	85.1
115	San Jose St.	83.9	86.1	83.0	84.3
116	Texas St.	83.8	84.7	83.6	84.0
117	New Mexico	83.1	86.2	82.5	84.0
118	Coastal Carolina	81.3	82.4	80.2	81.3
119	Colorado St.	79.5	83.8	79.7	81.0
120	Bowling Green	80.5	80.5	80.9	80.7
121	Akron	80.6	80.7	80.5	80.6
122	Rice	79.2	80.8	78.7	79.6
123	New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0
124	Central Michigan	78.3	79.4	78.4	78.7
125	Texas-San Antonio	77.8	80.6	77.5	78.6
126	South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3
127	Old Dominion	75.0	75.3	75.0	75.1
128	Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6
129	Connecticut	73.3	77.6	71.8	74.2
130	U T E P	66.3	72.0	66.7	68.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	109.3	108.3	110.4	109.3	0-0	1-0
Cincinnati	107.6	106.0	107.7	107.1	0-0	1-0
Temple	102.4	101.2	103.7	102.4	0-0	1-0
South Florida	90.4	91.5	90.5	90.8	0-0	0-1
East Carolina	84.5	86.6	84.2	85.1	0-0	0-1
Connecticut	73.3	77.6	71.8	74.2	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.0	103.5	105.1	104.2	0-0	1-0
SMU	99.5	98.7	99.9	99.4	0-0	1-0
Tulane	98.7	99.3	99.1	99.0	0-0	1-0
Houston	96.0	97.2	98.7	97.3	0-0	0-1
Tulsa	91.2	91.6	92.1	91.6	0-0	0-1
Navy	86.9	89.9	86.5	87.8	0-0	1-0
AAC Averages	95.3	96.0	95.8	95.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.0	130.3	135.0	133.1	1-0	1-0
Syracuse	112.0	111.8	112.3	112.0	0-0	1-0
Boston College	104.9	104.6	105.6	105.0	1-0	1-0
Florida St.	104.4	104.8	104.4	104.6	0-0	0-1
North Carolina St.	103.2	103.2	104.0	103.5	0-0	1-0
Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.7	103.4	0-0	1-0
Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9	0-0	0-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.7	111.2	110.0	0-0	0-1
Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1	1-0	1-0
Virginia Tech	107.7	108.0	108.2	108.0	0-1	0-1
Pittsburgh	105.9	105.6	105.2	105.6	0-1	0-1
Duke	103.5	102.9	103.2	103.2	0-0	0-1
North Carolina	102.0	103.2	103.4	102.9	0-0	1-0
Georgia Tech	99.6	97.6	100.3	99.2	0-1	0-1
ACC Averages	106.8	106.3	107.1	106.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.9	118.9	119.6	119.5	0-0	1-0
Texas	111.9	111.8	111.5	111.7	0-0	1-0
Baylor	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2	0-0	1-0
Iowa St.	110.0	110.4	109.9	110.1	0-0	1-0
Oklahoma St.	109.8	110.4	109.3	109.8	0-0	1-0
Texas Tech	108.0	108.1	107.1	107.7	0-0	1-0
Kansas St.	107.7	107.5	107.3	107.5	0-0	1-0
West Virginia	105.9	105.7	105.4	105.6	0-0	1-0
T C U	101.1	104.9	101.5	102.5	0-0	1-0
Kansas	95.0	96.2	94.7	95.3	0-0	1-0
Big 12 Averages	108.0	108.4	107.6	108.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	121.6	119.8	121.8	121.1	0-0	1-0
Michigan	121.3	119.3	121.8	120.8	0-0	1-0
Penn St.	117.0	115.9	116.9	116.6	0-0	1-0
Michigan St.	115.9	115.6	116.1	115.9	0-0	1-0
Indiana	108.6	106.8	107.4	107.6	0-0	1-0
Maryland	104.0	103.5	102.8	103.4	0-0	1-0
Rutgers	92.2	92.5	92.0	92.2	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	114.4	113.9	114.1	114.1	0-0	1-0
Iowa	115.0	112.5	114.7	114.0	0-0	1-0
Minnesota	111.0	110.4	109.8	110.4	0-0	1-0
Northwestern	110.7	109.7	109.7	110.0	0-0	0-1
Purdue	108.2	108.1	107.6	108.0	0-0	0-1
Nebraska	105.6	107.3	105.2	106.0	0-0	1-0
Illinois	99.9	100.8	99.3	100.0	0-0	1-0
Big Ten Averages	110.4	109.7	109.9	110.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2	0-0	1-0
Middle Tennessee	91.8	91.0	92.1	91.6	0-0	0-1
Florida Atlantic	91.4	90.6	92.1	91.4	0-0	0-1
Florida Int’l.	91.2	91.0	91.7	91.3	0-0	0-1
Charlotte	86.3	86.9	86.7	86.6	0-0	1-0
Western Kentucky	85.4	86.2	86.9	86.1	0-0	0-1
Old Dominion	75.0	75.3	75.0	75.1	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.7	92.3	95.0	94.0	0-0	1-0
North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1	0-0	1-0
Louisiana Tech	90.6	90.2	90.4	90.4	0-0	0-1
U A B	84.7	86.6	85.2	85.5	0-0	1-0
Rice	79.2	80.8	78.7	79.6	0-0	0-1
Texas-San Antonio	77.8	80.6	77.5	78.6	0-0	1-0
U T E P	66.3	72.0	66.7	68.3	0-0	1-0
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	86.1	86.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.2	118.4	120.2	119.6	x	1-0
BYU	101.4	101.2	101.4	101.3	x	0-1
Army	100.2	100.2	99.8	100.1	x	1-0
Liberty	88.0	89.3	88.3	88.5	x	0-1
New Mexico St.	76.6	79.3	76.2	77.3	x	0-1
Massachusetts	73.4	76.2	72.8	74.1	x	0-1
Indep. Averages	93.3	94.1	93.1	93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.3	95.0	97.8	96.4	0-0	1-0
Miami (Ohio)	90.8	89.1	91.3	90.4	0-0	0-1
Buffalo	87.0	87.8	88.0	87.6	0-0	1-0
Kent St.	85.6	85.8	86.0	85.8	0-0	0-1
Bowling Green	80.5	80.5	80.9	80.7	0-0	1-0
Akron	80.6	80.7	80.5	80.6	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	100.1	98.7	100.4	99.7	0-0	1-0
Northern Illinois	94.7	93.4	94.8	94.3	0-0	1-0
Toledo	91.2	91.4	92.3	91.6	0-0	0-1
Eastern Michigan	89.1	89.4	89.8	89.5	0-0	1-0
Ball St.	87.1	86.7	86.8	86.9	0-0	0-1
Central Michigan	78.3	79.4	78.4	78.7	0-0	1-0
MAC Averages	88.4	88.2	88.9	88.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.5	0-0	1-0
Utah St.	105.4	104.2	106.8	105.4	0-0	0-1
Air Force	97.7	99.0	98.5	98.4	0-0	1-0
Wyoming	96.7	99.1	97.6	97.8	0-0	1-0
New Mexico	83.1	86.2	82.5	84.0	0-0	1-0
Colorado St.	79.5	83.8	79.7	81.0	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.3	100.0	0-0	0-1
Hawaii	97.3	99.3	96.9	97.8	0-0	1-0
Nevada	94.4	96.1	94.2	94.9	0-0	1-0
San Diego St.	94.1	96.1	93.8	94.7	0-0	1-0
U N L V	86.8	89.3	86.9	87.7	0-0	1-0
San Jose St.	83.9	86.1	83.0	84.3	0-0	1-0
MWC Averages	93.8	95.4	93.9	94.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	113.1	113.1	114.2	113.5	0-0	0-1
Washington	113.3	112.5	114.4	113.4	0-0	1-0
Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0	0-0	1-0
Stanford	109.3	108.2	109.4	109.0	0-0	1-0
California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4	0-0	1-0
Oregon St.	94.6	95.8	93.2	94.5	0-0	0-1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.8	115.2	117.2	116.4	0-0	1-0
Arizona St.	107.3	106.3	107.7	107.1	0-0	1-0
U C L A	106.0	105.6	105.3	105.7	0-0	0-1
U S C	103.8	105.2	104.3	104.5	0-0	1-0
Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9	0-0	0-1
Colorado	99.9	99.4	99.9	99.7	0-0	1-0
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.9	123.9	126.3	125.4	1-0	1-0
Florida	120.0	117.1	119.0	118.7	0-0	1-0
Missouri	112.5	109.6	112.4	111.5	0-0	0-1
South Carolina	111.0	109.6	111.0	110.5	0-0	0-1
Kentucky	108.4	107.2	107.2	107.6	0-0	1-0
Tennessee	107.1	106.9	105.5	106.5	0-0	0-1
Vanderbilt	104.3	103.0	103.4	103.6	0-1	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.8	131.5	136.7	134.6	0-0	1-0
L S U	126.1	123.3	125.0	124.8	0-0	1-0
Texas A&M	118.6	117.1	117.2	117.7	0-0	1-0
Auburn	117.2	114.8	116.5	116.2	0-0	1-0
Mississippi St.	116.5	111.8	116.0	114.8	0-0	1-0
Ole Miss	102.0	100.9	100.8	101.2	0-0	0-1
Arkansas	99.0	100.0	98.3	99.1	0-0	1-0
SEC Averages	114.6	112.6	113.9	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.5	103.4	104.6	104.5	0-0	1-0
Georgia Southern	95.9	95.1	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-1
Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8	0-0	1-0
Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9	0-0	1-0
Coastal Carolina	81.3	82.4	80.2	81.3	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	93.8	93.9	92.9	93.5	0-0	0-1
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2	0-0	0-1
Louisiana-Monroe	89.1	89.8	89.1	89.3	0-0	1-0
Texas St.	83.8	84.7	83.6	84.0	0-0	0-1
South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3	0-0	0-1
SBC Averages	90.1	90.7	89.4	90.0

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.7
2	BTen	110.0
3	B12	108.0
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	106.7
6	AAC	95.7
7	MWC	94.4
8	Ind	93.5
9	SUN	90.0
10	MAC	88.5
11	CUSA	86.1

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Utah St.
5	Appalachian St.

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Miami (O)]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Louisiana-Monroe
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	California
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Florida Int’l.	Georgia St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Purdue]	Southern Miss.
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	Hawaii	Houston
Independence	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Maryland
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Stanford
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Baylor
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Central Florida
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	Kansas St.
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Indiana]	Miami (Fla.)
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	Arkansas
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Vanderbilt
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	Utah St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Michigan St.
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Army]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Wisconsin
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Northwestern	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Appalachian St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Oklahoma
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Woe To Us

One week into the season, panic has set in at a number of schools after unexpected losses or even unimpressive wins have sent the fans of certain schools into full-scale panic.

Worst of the lot is the University of Tennessee.  The Volunteers, 25-point favorites, lost at home to Georgia State in a game that Vols were clearly manhandled by the team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Eastern Division in 2019.

Calls have come from within a lot of the fan base for massive changes to be made just 13 games into Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s head coaching career.  There are even calls to rid Athletics Director Phil Fulmer of his duties as well.

Today, in our little old folks reminiscing feature, I will tell you that contrary to the current popular belief, that this loss in Knoxville is not the worst loss in modern day history.

Let’s set the Time Machine back to 1958.  Coach Bowden Wyatt led an archaic Tennessee Single Wing offense that as recently as 1956 had allowed the Big Orange to run the table in the regular season and finish 2nd nationally to champion Oklahoma.

The following year, Tennessee won eight games including the Gator Bowl.  Two of their three losses came to top 5 teams.

In 1958, the Vols stumbled coming out of the gate.  In a 2-4 start that produced little offense and strong defense, Coach Wyatt all of a sudden found himself in hot water.  Tennessee fans, spoiled under the long reign of General Robert Neyland, reacted to this 2-4 start like former New York Yankees manager George Steinbrenner used to react when his team won only 90 games and missed out on the American League Division title.

Game seven was one of those automatic wins against tiny in-state rival Chattanooga.  The Mocs at times in the 20th Century were classified as Major College, or the equivalent of today’s FBS.  However, in 1958, they were Small College, or the equivalent of FCS.

Chattanooga entered this game coming off a loss at Tennessee Tech, and nobody gave Coach Scrappy Moore’s team any hope playing the mighty Vols at Shield-Watkins Field.  When the game started, Chattanooga’s defense, led by future American Football League starter Charlie Long at linebacker (he was also a starting offensive guard and played that position with the Boston Patriots), had little problem stopping Tennessee’s balanced-line Single Wing offense.  Time and time again, Tennessee ran line bucks, off-tackle plays, sweeps, and traps, and the Mocs defense stopped the attack and forced punts.

Chattanooga’s offense was not a juggernaut, but on this day, the Mocs would garner two touchdown drives and led 14-0 with precious little time remaining.  The stadium began to lose its home fans rapidly, as the then 46,000 seat stadium had about 30,000 people in seats.  This was a good thing because of what would happen in a few minutes.

Tennessee mounted one final desperation drive with the forward pass, something Wyatt-coached Vols teams used infrequently.  Chattanooga played a loose defense, allowing the Vols to use up the rest of the clock but finally scoring points in the last few seconds of the game.  The extra point was blocked, and Chattanooga pulled off its greatest ever upset, beating Tennessee in Knoxville 14-6.

The Chattanooga fans, totally excited over their impossible feat, stormed the field and tore down the goalposts.  What happens next has been told to me in the past by older acquaintances that lived in Chattanooga and have passed on to their reward.  Here’s a composite of these stories told to me many years ago:

The Tennessee fans that remained until the end of the game took offense at the Chattanooga fans storming their field and tearing down their goalposts.  When about 100 Vols’ fans decided to let the mob rule, they began to attack the Mocs fans, and within a few seconds, this became a full-scale riot.

In what has been described to me to have resembled the streets of Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the Knoxville police had to bring their riot gear and paddy wagons to the campus.  Eventually, tear gas was lobbed onto the field to stop the violence that had gotten well out of control.  Many Chattanooga fans and a handful of Tennessee fans had been detained and carted off to vehicles to be transferred to jail.

Here’s the most outrageous part of this story.  The sheriff of Hamilton County (Chattanooga as the county seat) was at this game as a fan.  He rounded up a “posse” of Mocs to attempt to overpower the Knoxville police and emancipate the arrested Chattanooga fans.  The sheriff was then arrested by the Knoxville police.

Tennessee had two home games remaining in 1958, and the administration decided they would not purchase new goalposts.  Instead, they erected very cheap wooden goalposts, the type anybody could construct by going to Home Depot, Lowe’s, or Menard’s today.

Coach Wyatt was barbecued in the local newspapers.  The Knoxville Journal and the Knoxville News-Sentinel opposed each other in 1958 like Fox News and CNN oppose each other today.  Yet, the two papers were in agreement that something needed to be done.  At 2-5, Tennessee now faced a closing three games against a top-5 Ole Miss team that had lost only to eventual national champion LSU; a decent Kentucky team under future Cleveland Browns head coach Blanton Collier; and a Vanderbilt team that would lose only one game prior to the season-ending contest with the Vols.

Staring a potential 2-8 season in the face, there was no joy in “The Marble City.”  Tennessee football was to Knoxville on Saturdays what it is to Green Bay on Sundays.

With the makeshift goalposts, Tennessee entered their game with Ole Miss as double-digit underdogs at home.  Having done exhaustive research, this was a first at Shields-Watkins Field.  Rarely had the Vols been underdogs at home under Neyland, so being a double-digit underdog to the Rebels was a new low.

As unexpected as their loss was to Chattanooga the previous week, the Vols went the opposite way against Coach Johnny Vaught’s Rebels.  Ole Miss had just scored 56 points the previous week against Houston, and their defense was giving up less than six points per game.  Even LSU could muster only 14 points, so the Vols’ Single Wing offense looked to be in a huge bind, and it was conceivable that Tennessee would be lucky to even cross midfield.

Not only did Tennessee move the ball across midfield, they moved it up and down the field for most of the day, while their defense slowed a great Split-T attack and Ole Miss’s top back, Charlie Flowers, had trouble moving the ball for most of the day.  An 18-16 upset was as big as the upset loss to Chattanooga.

Ironically, the Vols’ fans stormed the field after this game and quickly made short work of the cheap, makeshift goalposts.  Tennessee had to erect another set of wooden goalposts for its final home game.  Also ironically, goalposts would not be needed in that final home game, as neither Tennessee nor Kentucky attempted an extra point that day.  The Vol offense returned to its inept depths and failed to produce points.  A safety by the defense prevented the goose egg from staying on the old scoreboard.  Kentucky scored a lone touchdown and missed a two-point conversion but won 6-2.  This guaranteed a losing season for the Vols.

The season ended with Tennessee visiting their in-state rival Vanderbilt in Nashville.  This Vanderbilt team was ranked number 15 and looking at a likely Sun, Gator, or Bluegrass Bowl bid with a win over the lowly Vols.  Vanderbilt entered this game without an SEC loss and only one overall, which came against a Clemson team that won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship and would face LSU in the Sugar Bowl.

After Coach Neyland came to Knoxville, Vanderbilt was rarely favored to beat their nemesis down the road on US Highway 70.  On this late November day, the Commodores were expected to win easily and give some of their second team players extra experience.

Once again, the Vols came out fired up and stopped Vanderbilt’s version of the Split-T and Wing-T offense.  The UT Single Wing offense was not potent by any means, but they moved the ball.  In 1958, few teams made more than two or three field goals in an entire season, and many did not make even one.  On this day, a field goal gave the Vols a surprising early lead, and Tennessee led 10-6 in the fourth quarter.  Two long Vanderbilt drives ended with turnovers, a fumble on the first and an interception on the second.  The Vol player (cannot remember his name) that recovered the fumble also picked off the pass, and Tennessee shocked Vandy at Dudley Field.  As a result, the Commodores were passed over for the bowl bids.  The Sun Bowl took Hardin-Simmons; the Bluegrass Bowl in Louisville took Florida State; and the Gator Bowl chose Florida and Ole Miss.

To all the Vols fans, as well as those that cheer for Tennessee to lose, let this be a warning to you.  The same can be said to Florida State, South Carolina, Missouri, UCLA, and Arizona fans this week.  Your team failed miserably in game one, but you never know what might happen in game two.  This going to the extremes, believing your team might be Playoff bound if they win their first game, and believing that the sky is falling if they lose their first game, is a ridiculous emotion.  It’s just the first game.  Teams have stunk in their first game and proceeded to win the national championship.  Not that this will happen in 2019, but the Seminoles, Gamecocks, Tigers, Bruins, Wildcats, and Vols fans still have reason to believe that this current low point will be replaced with multiple reversals of misfortune.

Week Two–Some Marquee Games

This will be a Saturday to make plans to watch a lot of football if you are a big college fan.

Noon, EDT

Michigan vs. Army–Fox Sports

This is the best early game.  The Wolverines had some trouble against Middle Tennessee in week one, while Army struggled with Rice.  This game may be lower scoring than first expected, but both teams did not show their entire playbooks last week.  I expect more offense and will look at the totals numbers for this game.  If Army can pull off the upset, the Black Knights can easily run the table for the regular season and possibly earn a spot in the Cotton Bowl.  Army is not eligible for the guaranteed Group of 5 New Year’s Bowl bid, as this goes to the highest-rated Group of 5 Conference Champion.  However, if the men from West Point beat Michigan and proceed to go 13-0 in the regular season, they could still be selected as an at-large team for the Cotton Bowl.

Of course, Michigan is a tough team to beat at The Big House, and Army does not wear scarlet and gray uniforms.

Purdue vs. Vanderbilt–Big Ten Network

This looks like a bowl eliminator game, even in week 2.  Purdue watched a 17-point lead disappear in Reno against Nevada.  Vanderbilt suffered against national contender Georgia and has injuries on its already thin offensive line.  The team that emerges 1-1 will still hold bowl hopes for 2019.  The loser has little path to six wins.

3:30 PM EDT

Clemson vs. Texas A&M–ABC

The Aggies gave the Tigers one of their two toughest battles last year in College Station, and Coach Jimbo Fisher certainly knows how to prepare for a game against his former rival when he coached at Florida State.  Having to go to Deaf Valley to place Trevor the Great may be asking the Aggies to do the impossible, but Clemson didn’t look like a super team against Georgia Tech last week, and Lawrence actually completed two passes to the wrong colored jersey.  This game might be quite interesting if the Aggies can contain the CU running game and make Clemson one dimensional.

7:30 PM EDT

Texas vs. LSU–ABC

This may be the overall best game of the week.  Texas looked just as strong if not stronger beating Louisiana Tech in week one as they looked like last year when they beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.  LSU looked like a team that Alabama fans need to worry about, as the new Tiger offense did things through the air that it had not done before, even in the Bert Jones days.  Joe Burrow added his name to Heisman Trophy contention after week one.  The winner of this game stays in Playoff contention.  The loser is already looking at top tier bowl but no Playoffs.

8:00 PM EDT

North Carolina vs. Miami–ACC Network

Kudos to Coach Mack Brown for showing the nation that old guys can still teach new tricks to the youngsters.  North Carolina can now become a co-favorite for the Coastal Division flag with a win over Miami in week two.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had an extra week to lick their wounds after falling to rival Florida in a game that Miami had a chance to win at the end.

10:30 PM EDT

Washington vs. California–FS1

After Oregon lost in the final nine seconds to Auburn, the Pac-12 was placed behind the 8-ball.  It is going to take a 12-0 team from the Pac-12 to make the Playoffs, so this game will see one team emerge as having accomplished what is mandatory for that to happen.  Washington quarterback Jacob Eason looked like a potential first team All Pac-12 player in game one, but then Eastern Washington’s defense is not the standard to judge excellence.

Cal had to come from behind to beat FCS rival UC Davis.  Having to go to Seattle for this game makes the Bears a solid underdog, but Coach Justin Wilcox is impressing us with his handling of the boys from Berkeley.  Expect this game to be closer than expected and most likely quite exciting.  Cal stopped the Huskies last year in a 12-10 win.

Stanford vs. USC–ESPN

When USC quarterback J.T. Daniels went down with a season-ending injury in the middle of the Fresno State game, you could just see Coach Clay Helton’s subconscious brain imagining the help-wanted ads in the Los Angeles Times.  With an incredibly difficult schedule and a mandate to win 8 or 9 games this year, how does Helton survive the season much less get through it to the end with a true freshman signal caller?

Helton and the Trojans may have a shot against the Cardinal, because Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello might not play after suffering a gruesome hit in what should have been called a targeting penalty against Northwestern.  Costello might be in the concussion protocol and unable to play in this game, and backup Davis Mills did not produce any points after entering the game for the second half.

The winner of this game will be an unconvincing 2-0 team, but the loser will be in dire straits at 1-1.  USC faces four consecutive games where they will be the underdog, while Stanford decided to play Central Florida and Notre Dame as two of its three non-conference games.  The Cardinal may not have five more wins on their schedule if they lose this game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings Picks For August 24, 2019

Welcome to the debut of the 2019 PiRate Ratings Picks.  During the football season, we will issue our pretend financial advice for you to read as entertainment purposes only and not to wager real money on games.

We pretend to make $100 wagers on whatever it is we select.  In the past, we have done this with money line parlays, teasers, straight wagers, and regular spread parlays.  Through the years, we have discovered our most successful style of wagering has been playing money line parlays.  At one time, we were successful teasing the totals lines.  13-point, 4-game parlays of teaser totals gave us an incredible hot streak one season when the standard deviation of scores was much lower than normal.

In this decade, there has been higher standard deviation in NFL scores, because the new rule moving extra points back 15 yards has created instability in game scores.

Many years ago, we had a rather impressive result playing the middle in games, but that was when we had permission to release the “outlaw” line before the official opening line.  Without the ability to see the Outlaw line and then the opening line, it was impossible to try to guess which games would see a large enough swing to go with both sides.

Since there are only two games this week, both college games, there is no real play that can be issued with our strategy.  If you take both favorites this week, Florida over Miami and Arizona over Hawaii, the best money line parlay odds you can get today is .6941, which means you would win $169.41 if you bet $100 and the two favorites won.  That means you would get your $100 investment back with $69.41 in profits.  Our philosophy is to only play parlays with odds of +120 or better, meaning you would receive $220  or more on a $100 wager.

In order to play a parlay with better than +120 odds this week, we would have to pick Hawaii or Miami to win outright.  If we selected Florida to beat Miami and Hawaii to upset Arizona, the parlay odds would be around +500 at this very moment.  That means, we would win $600 on a $100 wager if Florida and Hawaii won.

Alas, we are only confident this week of one outcome, that Florida will indeed beat Miami.  The actual point spread is right where we believe it should be, so playing the line is out of the question.

The best Money Line spread available to us at midday Thursday is -290, which means if we wager $100 on this game, if Florida won, we’d get a tiny $34.48 profit.  The reward is too small for the risk.

The totals for these two games do not give us a chance to come up with a playable parlay either, so for Week 0, we are not issuing any official picks.  We prefer to pick our spots and play only games that we are confident in occasionally winning.  If we play Money Line parlays with odds of +120 or better, we can win a smaller percentage of games and still turn a profit.

Let’s say we play 50 games this year with an average parlay odd of +180  Let’s say we get lucky and win 20.  Here’s how that would affect our imaginary bank account.

50 wagers of $100 each = $5,000 investment

20 Wins at +180 = $3,600 in winnings

30 Losses at +180 = $3,000 in losses

$600 profit at the end of the 50 wagers

12% Return on Investment

This 12% would take place in roughly 4 months, so the annualized Return on Investment would be 36%.  Not many investments return 36% in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub: how likely is it that we can win 40% of our Money Line wagers at +180 odds?  The answer at the present time is one year in four, or to re-phrase it, four years ago.  The only solace is that the most recent three years brought imaginary profits as well, just nothing close to an annualized return of 36%.  Our 2018 season profit was so small it is not worth mentioning.  It was better in 2017 and much better in 2016, so the four year trend has been going in the wrong direction.

Ah, but here’s the other rub: We invested imaginary funds in all the years we have issued our selections.  Being 100% accurate and being 0% accurate brings the same outcome on zero real dollars invested.

Last year, we welcomed five of our long time friends to participate in a contest selecting winners against the spread.  It was a close contest all year, and as a group the five turned a small profit.  This year, we are going to have a guest computer program try to pick winners.  We decided to call this program “Davey 19.”  Davey is named for a former quarterback at TCU and for a short time with the Philadelphia Eagles.  Davey was only 5 foot 7 inches tall, but he had the heart of a giant and the fundamentals of a robot, so that’s why we are calling our guest computer program Davey 19 this year.

We will give Davey an identical rule–to make investments in imaginary $100 wagers.  Davey can make any type of selection in college and the NFL.  Davey does have one selection this week.

 

PiRate Picks For August 24, 2019

None   (not enough games for a playable parlay)

 

Davey 19 Selection For August 24, 2019

Hawaii +11 vs. Arizona

 

We do feel like Florida has a better than 60% chance to beat Miami, but the Money Line odd is too low to make enough profit to limit risk.

PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday	August 24
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida (n)	Miami (Fla.)	11.0	9.5	8.9
Hawaii	Arizona	-2.2	-0.3	-3.4
Thursday	August 29
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	UCLA	2.6	1.1	3.7
Tulane	Florida Int’l.	4.4	5.4	3.7
Clemson	Georgia Tech	36.7	34.0	36.7
Texas A&M	Texas St.	36.5	33.7	34.9
Arizona St.	Kent St.	26.4	24.6	26.8
BYU	Utah	-13.5	-11.5	-13.5
Friday	August 30
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Rice	28.2	26.4	28.7
South Florida	Wisconsin	-12.1	-10.1	-10.9
Michigan St.	Tulsa	27.1	26.4	26.2
Rutgers	Massachusetts	21.2	18.1	21.2
Wake Forest	Utah St.	1.3	2.0	0.0
Nevada	Purdue	-15.2	-13.4	-15.2
Colorado (n)	Colorado St.	20.5	14.8	20.6
Oregon St.	Oklahoma St.	-11.9	-10.8	-12.3
Saturday	August 31
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	18.9	16.1	19.5
Illinois	Akron	16.5	17.3	15.4
Indiana (n)	Ball St.	23.8	22.4	23.3
Nebraska	South Alabama	35.9	33.8	36.8
Ohio St.	Florida Atlantic	32.2	31.1	31.7
Kentucky	Toledo	21.3	19.7	19.0
Memphis	Ole Miss	3.1	3.7	5.6
Louisiana (n)	Mississippi St.	-25.0	-19.6	-25.8
North Carolina (n)	South Carolina	-14.3	-11.3	-12.7
Tennessee	Georgia St.	30.8	29.0	30.3
Alabama (n)	Duke	31.3	26.7	32.2
Coastal Carolina	Eastern Michigan	-5.2	-4.1	-7.1
Stanford	Northwestern	0.3	0.1	1.5
Boston College	Virginia Tech	-1.5	-2.6	-1.6
Liberty	Syracuse	-21.3	-19.4	-21.0
Arkansas St.	SMU	-5.4	-4.3	-5.8
Florida St. (n)	Boise St.	2.0	3.6	1.9
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-18.7	-17.8	-20.0
Auburn (n)	Oregon	3.8	0.9	1.5
LSU	Georgia Southern	28.0	25.3	27.3
Wyoming	Missouri	-18.5	-12.7	-17.7
Iowa	Miami (O)	27.4	26.6	26.8
Michigan	Middle Tennessee	35.2	33.8	35.8
Pittsburgh	Virginia	3.4	2.4	2.7
Texas	Louisiana Tech	23.4	23.5	22.5
Washington St.	New Mexico St.	37.0	32.5	37.4
USC	Fresno St.	7.2	8.0	6.8
Sunday/Monday	September 1/2
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma	Houston	28.2	25.7	24.9
Louisville	Notre Dame	-23.8	-22.4	-25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate
San Jose St.	Northern Colorado	14.5
Connecticut	Wagner	12.6
Central Michigan	Albany	9.8
Bowling Green	Morgan St.	17.2
Buffalo	Robert Morris	43.9
Charlotte	Gardner-Webb	26.5
Western Kentucky	Central Arkansas	11.9
Central Florida	Florida A&M	45.5
UAB	Alabama St.	45.5
Minnesota	South Dakota St.	12.7
UNLV	Southern Utah	17.3
Air Force	Colgate	11.3
New Mexico	Sam Houston St.	9.7
Maryland	Howard	36.0
Iowa St.	Northern Iowa	22.2
Kansas	Indiana St.	13.8
West Virginia	James Madison	18.5
Ohio U	Rhode Island	27.6
Washington	E. Washington	18.0
Temple	Bucknell	44.2
Navy	Holy Cross	24.4
Penn St.	Idaho	40.5
Appalachian St.	East Tennessee	36.3
Arkansas	Portland St.	21.0
Texas Tech	Montana St.	25.7
UTSA	Incarnate Word	7.3
Troy	Campbell	33.8
California	UC-Davis	14.5
Marshall	VMI	37.8
Old Dominion	Norfolk St.	23.5
Southern Miss	Alcorn St.	23.6
Kansas St.	Nicholls	23.9
Baylor	Stephen F Austin	37.3
Northern Illinois	Illinois St.	7.3
Western Michigan	Monmouth	20.5
North Texas	Abilene Christian	19.4
UTEP	Houston Baptist	15.2
TCU	Ark. Pine Bluff	52.3
Louisiana-Monroe	Grambling	24.3
San Diego St.	Weber St.	8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.3	130.6	136.1	134.0
2	Clemson	133.8	129.6	134.6	132.7
3	Georgia	125.7	123.6	126.1	125.1
4	Michigan	122.9	120.8	123.6	122.4
5	L S U	123.5	120.4	122.2	122.0
6	Ohio St.	121.1	119.3	121.3	120.6
7	Notre Dame	121.0	119.1	121.5	120.5
8	Oklahoma	120.5	119.4	120.1	120.0
9	Florida	120.7	117.8	119.7	119.4
10	Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	116.7	117.2
11	Utah	116.6	114.7	116.8	116.0
12	Auburn	117.0	114.4	116.1	115.8
13	Mississippi St.	117.5	112.5	117.2	115.7
14	Michigan St.	115.6	115.3	115.7	115.5
15	Penn St.	115.0	113.9	114.9	114.6
16	Missouri	115.5	112.4	115.5	114.5
17	Iowa	115.1	112.6	114.9	114.2
18	Oregon	113.3	113.5	114.6	113.8
19	South Carolina	113.8	112.2	113.7	113.2
20	Washington	112.7	111.9	113.8	112.8
21	Iowa St.	111.8	112.2	111.7	111.9
22	Syracuse	111.9	111.5	112.0	111.8
23	Washington St.	112.0	110.7	112.2	111.6
24	Tennessee	111.8	111.6	110.3	111.2
25	Minnesota	111.8	111.2	110.6	111.2
26	Texas	111.4	111.2	110.7	111.1
27	Northwestern	111.3	110.4	110.3	110.7
28	Purdue	110.4	110.3	110.0	110.2
29	Baylor	110.3	110.2	109.8	110.1
30	Miami (Fla.)	109.6	108.3	110.8	109.6
31	Oklahoma St.	109.6	110.0	108.9	109.5
32	Wisconsin	109.7	109.0	109.0	109.2
33	Virginia Tech	108.5	109.1	109.2	108.9
34	Indiana	109.6	107.8	108.6	108.7
35	Stanford	108.7	107.5	108.8	108.3
36	Central Florida	108.1	107.1	109.2	108.1
37	Kentucky	108.8	107.5	107.6	108.0
38	Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	108.5	107.7
39	Pittsburgh	108.0	107.6	107.4	107.7
40	Nebraska	107.2	108.8	107.0	107.7
41	California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4
42	Virginia	107.1	107.7	107.2	107.3
43	Texas Tech	107.5	107.6	106.6	107.2
44	U C L A	107.1	106.9	106.3	106.8
45	Kansas St.	107.0	106.8	106.6	106.8
46	Cincinnati	106.8	105.0	107.0	106.3
47	West Virginia	106.4	106.2	105.9	106.1
48	Utah St.	105.6	104.3	107.0	105.6
49	Florida St.	105.2	105.9	105.4	105.5
50	Boise St.	105.2	104.3	105.5	105.0
51	U S C	103.8	105.2	104.2	104.4
52	Appalachian St.	105.4	103.3	104.5	104.4
53	Boston College	104.1	103.5	104.6	104.1
54	Memphis	103.8	103.3	105.0	104.0
55	Duke	104.0	103.8	103.8	103.9
56	Vanderbilt	104.5	103.3	103.6	103.8
57	Wake Forest	103.4	102.8	103.5	103.2
58	T C U	101.8	105.6	102.2	103.2
59	Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7
60	North Carolina St.	102.5	102.2	103.1	102.6
61	Temple	102.2	101.0	103.5	102.2
62	Arizona	101.9	102.0	102.4	102.1
63	Maryland	102.3	101.8	101.1	101.7
64	BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.2	101.1	100.9	101.4
66	North Carolina	99.5	100.9	101.0	100.5
67	Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.4	100.1
68	Georgia Tech	100.1	98.6	101.0	99.9
69	Colorado	100.0	99.0	100.1	99.7
70	Arkansas	99.5	100.5	98.8	99.6
71	Western Michigan	99.6	98.2	99.9	99.2
72	SMU	99.4	98.4	99.6	99.1
73	Georgia Southern	98.5	98.0	97.9	98.2
74	Air Force	96.7	98.0	97.5	97.4
75	Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.3	97.2
76	Houston	95.4	96.7	98.2	96.7
77	Ohio	96.5	95.2	98.0	96.6
78	Tulane	95.9	96.6	96.0	96.2
79	Hawaii	95.7	97.7	95.0	96.1
80	Kansas	95.3	96.5	95.0	95.6
81	South Florida	94.6	95.9	95.1	95.2
82	Wyoming	94.0	96.6	94.8	95.1
83	Oregon St.	94.8	96.2	93.6	94.9
84	San Diego St.	94.2	96.2	93.9	94.8
85	Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8
86	Florida Int’l.	94.0	93.7	94.8	94.2
87	Northern Illinois	94.5	93.2	94.6	94.1
88	Louisville	94.7	94.2	93.0	93.9
89	Southern Miss.	94.6	92.2	94.9	93.9
90	Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2
91	North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1
92	Nevada	92.2	93.9	91.8	92.6
93	Louisiana	92.5	92.9	91.4	92.3
94	Tulsa	91.5	91.9	92.5	92.0
95	Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.1	92.6	91.9
96	Rutgers	91.9	91.9	91.5	91.8
97	Arkansas St.	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5
98	Louisiana Tech	91.1	90.8	91.2	91.0
99	Toledo	90.5	90.8	91.6	90.9
100	Middle Tennessee	90.7	90.0	90.8	90.5
101	Miami (Ohio)	90.7	89.0	91.1	90.3
102	Louisiana-Monroe	89.2	89.9	89.2	89.4
103	Eastern Michigan	89.0	89.2	89.8	89.4
104	Buffalo	88.2	89.0	89.2	88.8
105	Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7
106	Western Kentucky	87.9	88.7	89.4	88.6
107	U A B	87.2	89.1	87.7	88.0
108	U N L V	86.4	88.9	86.5	87.3
109	Navy	86.2	89.2	85.8	87.1
110	Charlotte	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7
111	East Carolina	85.2	87.6	85.1	86.0
112	Ball St.	85.8	85.4	85.3	85.5
113	Kent St.	85.0	85.5	85.2	85.2
114	San Jose St.	83.8	86.0	82.9	84.2
115	Georgia St.	84.0	85.6	83.0	84.2
116	Texas St.	83.8	84.9	83.8	84.2
117	New Mexico	83.2	86.3	82.6	84.1
118	Akron	83.3	83.4	83.5	83.4
119	Coastal Carolina	81.4	82.6	80.2	81.4
120	Colorado St.	79.4	84.2	79.5	81.0
121	New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0
122	Bowling Green	78.5	78.5	78.9	78.7
123	Central Michigan	78.1	79.2	78.2	78.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	77.2	80.0	76.9	78.0
125	Rice	77.1	78.8	76.4	77.5
126	Old Dominion	75.7	76.0	75.7	75.8
127	South Alabama	74.3	78.0	73.1	75.2
128	Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6
129	Connecticut	73.6	77.9	72.1	74.5
130	U T E P	66.9	72.6	67.3	68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	108.1	107.1	109.2	108.1	0-0	0-0
Cincinnati	106.8	105.0	107.0	106.3	0-0	0-0
Temple	102.2	101.0	103.5	102.2	0-0	0-0
South Florida	94.6	95.9	95.1	95.2	0-0	0-0
East Carolina	85.2	87.6	85.1	86.0	0-0	0-0
Connecticut	73.6	77.9	72.1	74.5	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	103.8	103.3	105.0	104.0	0-0	0-0
SMU	99.4	98.4	99.6	99.1	0-0	0-0
Houston	95.4	96.7	98.2	96.7	0-0	0-0
Tulane	95.9	96.6	96.0	96.2	0-0	0-0
Tulsa	91.5	91.9	92.5	92.0	0-0	0-0
Navy	86.2	89.2	85.8	87.1	0-0	0-0
AAC Averages	95.2	95.9	95.8	95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.8	129.6	134.6	132.7	0-0	0-0
Syracuse	111.9	111.5	112.0	111.8	0-0	0-0
Florida St.	105.2	105.9	105.4	105.5	0-0	0-0
Boston College	104.1	103.5	104.6	104.1	0-0	0-0
Wake Forest	103.4	102.8	103.5	103.2	0-0	0-0
North Carolina St.	102.5	102.2	103.1	102.6	0-0	0-0
Louisville	94.7	94.2	93.0	93.9	0-0	0-0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	109.6	108.3	110.8	109.6	0-0	0-0
Virginia Tech	108.5	109.1	109.2	108.9	0-0	0-0
Pittsburgh	108.0	107.6	107.4	107.7	0-0	0-0
Virginia	107.1	107.7	107.2	107.3	0-0	0-0
Duke	104.0	103.8	103.8	103.9	0-0	0-0
North Carolina	99.5	100.9	101.0	100.5	0-0	0-0
Georgia Tech	100.1	98.6	101.0	99.9	0-0	0-0
ACC Averages	106.6	106.1	106.9	106.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	120.5	119.4	120.1	120.0	0-0	0-0
Iowa St.	111.8	112.2	111.7	111.9	0-0	0-0
Texas	111.4	111.2	110.7	111.1	0-0	0-0
Baylor	110.3	110.2	109.8	110.1	0-0	0-0
Oklahoma St.	109.6	110.0	108.9	109.5	0-0	0-0
Texas Tech	107.5	107.6	106.6	107.2	0-0	0-0
Kansas St.	107.0	106.8	106.6	106.8	0-0	0-0
West Virginia	106.4	106.2	105.9	106.1	0-0	0-0
T C U	101.8	105.6	102.2	103.2	0-0	0-0
Kansas	95.3	96.5	95.0	95.6	0-0	0-0
Big 12 Averages	108.2	108.6	107.7	108.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	122.9	120.8	123.6	122.4	0-0	0-0
Ohio St.	121.1	119.3	121.3	120.6	0-0	0-0
Michigan St.	115.6	115.3	115.7	115.5	0-0	0-0
Penn St.	115.0	113.9	114.9	114.6	0-0	0-0
Indiana	109.6	107.8	108.6	108.7	0-0	0-0
Maryland	102.3	101.8	101.1	101.7	0-0	0-0
Rutgers	91.9	91.9	91.5	91.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	115.1	112.6	114.9	114.2	0-0	0-0
Minnesota	111.8	111.2	110.6	111.2	0-0	0-0
Northwestern	111.3	110.4	110.3	110.7	0-0	0-0
Purdue	110.4	110.3	110.0	110.2	0-0	0-0
Wisconsin	109.7	109.0	109.0	109.2	0-0	0-0
Nebraska	107.2	108.8	107.0	107.7	0-0	0-0
Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.3	97.2	0-0	0-0
Big Ten Averages	110.1	109.4	109.6	109.7
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Int’l.	94.0	93.7	94.8	94.2	0-0	0-0
Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2	0-0	0-0
Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.1	92.6	91.9	0-0	0-0
Middle Tennessee	90.7	90.0	90.8	90.5	0-0	0-0
Western Kentucky	87.9	88.7	89.4	88.6	0-0	0-0
Charlotte	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7	0-0	0-0
Old Dominion	75.7	76.0	75.7	75.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	92.2	94.9	93.9	0-0	0-0
North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1	0-0	0-0
Louisiana Tech	91.1	90.8	91.2	91.0	0-0	0-0
U A B	87.2	89.1	87.7	88.0	0-0	0-0
Texas-San Antonio	77.2	80.0	76.9	78.0	0-0	0-0
Rice	77.1	78.8	76.4	77.5	0-0	0-0
U T E P	66.9	72.6	67.3	68.9	0-0	0-0
CUSA Averages	86.2	86.8	86.6	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.0	119.1	121.5	120.5	x	0-0
Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7	x	0-0
BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7	x	0-0
Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7	x	0-0
New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0	x	0-0
Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6	x	0-0
Indep. Averages	94.2	95.2	94.3	94.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.5	95.2	98.0	96.6	0-0	0-0
Miami (Ohio)	90.7	89.0	91.1	90.3	0-0	0-0
Buffalo	88.2	89.0	89.2	88.8	0-0	0-0
Kent St.	85.0	85.5	85.2	85.2	0-0	0-0
Akron	83.3	83.4	83.5	83.4	0-0	0-0
Bowling Green	78.5	78.5	78.9	78.7	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	99.6	98.2	99.9	99.2	0-0	0-0
Northern Illinois	94.5	93.2	94.6	94.1	0-0	0-0
Toledo	90.5	90.8	91.6	90.9	0-0	0-0
Eastern Michigan	89.0	89.2	89.8	89.4	0-0	0-0
Ball St.	85.8	85.4	85.3	85.5	0-0	0-0
Central Michigan	78.1	79.2	78.2	78.5	0-0	0-0
MAC Averages	88.3	88.1	88.8	88.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	105.6	104.3	107.0	105.6	0-0	0-0
Boise St.	105.2	104.3	105.5	105.0	0-0	0-0
Air Force	96.7	98.0	97.5	97.4	0-0	0-0
Wyoming	94.0	96.6	94.8	95.1	0-0	0-0
New Mexico	83.2	86.3	82.6	84.1	0-0	0-0
Colorado St.	79.4	84.2	79.5	81.0	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.4	100.1	0-0	0-0
Hawaii	95.7	97.7	95.0	96.1	0-0	0-0
San Diego St.	94.2	96.2	93.9	94.8	0-0	0-0
Nevada	92.2	93.9	91.8	92.6	0-0	0-0
U N L V	86.4	88.9	86.5	87.3	0-0	0-0
San Jose St.	83.8	86.0	82.9	84.2	0-0	0-0
MWC Averages	93.0	94.7	93.1	93.6
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	113.3	113.5	114.6	113.8	0-0	0-0
Washington	112.7	111.9	113.8	112.8	0-0	0-0
Washington St.	112.0	110.7	112.2	111.6	0-0	0-0
Stanford	108.7	107.5	108.8	108.3	0-0	0-0
California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4	0-0	0-0
Oregon St.	94.8	96.2	93.6	94.9	0-0	0-0
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	114.7	116.8	116.0	0-0	0-0
Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	108.5	107.7	0-0	0-0
U C L A	107.1	106.9	106.3	106.8	0-0	0-0
U S C	103.8	105.2	104.2	104.4	0-0	0-0
Arizona	101.9	102.0	102.4	102.1	0-0	0-0
Colorado	100.0	99.0	100.1	99.7	0-0	0-0
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.5	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.7	123.6	126.1	125.1	0-0	0-0
Florida	120.7	117.8	119.7	119.4	0-0	0-0
Missouri	115.5	112.4	115.5	114.5	0-0	0-0
South Carolina	113.8	112.2	113.7	113.2	0-0	0-0
Tennessee	111.8	111.6	110.3	111.2	0-0	0-0
Kentucky	108.8	107.5	107.6	108.0	0-0	0-0
Vanderbilt	104.5	103.3	103.6	103.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	130.6	136.1	134.0	0-0	0-0
L S U	123.5	120.4	122.2	122.0	0-0	0-0
Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	116.7	117.2	0-0	0-0
Auburn	117.0	114.4	116.1	115.8	0-0	0-0
Mississippi St.	117.5	112.5	117.2	115.7	0-0	0-0
Ole Miss	102.2	101.1	100.9	101.4	0-0	0-0
Arkansas	99.5	100.5	98.8	99.6	0-0	0-0
SEC Averages	115.3	113.2	114.6	114.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.4	103.3	104.5	104.4	0-0	0-0
Georgia Southern	98.5	98.0	97.9	98.2	0-0	0-0
Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8	0-0	0-0
Georgia St.	84.0	85.6	83.0	84.2	0-0	0-0
Coastal Carolina	81.4	82.6	80.2	81.4	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	92.5	92.9	91.4	92.3	0-0	0-0
Arkansas St.	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5	0-0	0-0
Louisiana-Monroe	89.2	89.9	89.2	89.4	0-0	0-0
Texas St.	83.8	84.9	83.8	84.2	0-0	0-0
South Alabama	74.3	78.0	73.1	75.2	0-0	0-0
SBC Averages	89.5	90.2	88.8	89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	114.4
2	BTen	109.7
3	B12	108.2
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	106.5
6	AAC	95.6
7	Ind	94.5
8	MWC	93.6
9	SUN	89.5
10	MAC	88.4
11	CUSA	86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Cincinnati
3	Utah St.
4	Boise St.
5	Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Southern Miss.
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Houston	Florida Int’l.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Temple	Georgia Southern
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Utah St.	UCLA
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	UAB	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Memphis
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Northwestern
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	South Florida
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	Minnesota
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Hawaii
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Miami (Fla.)	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Army	Washington
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	TCU
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Stanford	Wisconsin
Music City	SEC	ACC	Indiana	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Syracuse	Tennessee
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Kentucky
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	Fresno St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Texas A&M	Nebraska
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Auburn	Penn St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	SMU	North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	South Carolina	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Air Force
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Purdue	Boise St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Georgia
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Michigan
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

2019 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

Current Penn State and former Vanderbilt football coach James Franklin once said, “The three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, AFC, and SEC.”  Even though Clemson has taken Alabama to the woodshed twice in three years, the SEC is still the class of college football.  Clemson has no rival in the ACC like Alabama has in the SEC.  There are no Georgia, LSU, Florida, or Texas A&M types in the ACC.  Clemson played Texas A&M last year; it was a close game, and the Aggies had a chance to win it.  They go to Clemson early this season, and it is probably the only game Clemson will have to worry about until the Playoffs.

In the East Division, Georgia is the only team that has won the SEC Championship in the last 10 seasons.  The Bulldogs won the 2017 title, and they led Alabama in the National Championship Game until Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench and became the best quarterback to wear the Crimson since Ken Stabler and Joe Namath.  Georgia lost to LSU last season and then led Alabama into the second half in the Championship Game, before Tua rallied the Tide again.  Can the third year be the charm?  Coach Kirby Smart has star quarterback Jake Fromm and talented running back D’Andre Swift back behind a tough offensive line.  The receiving corps is thin on experience but has some talent, and with Fromm throwing the ball, the passing game will top 200 yards a game.

The Bulldog defense had a little trouble stopping some enemy quarterbacks last year, but the secondary will be improved in 2019.  The Bulldog defense should yield 17 or less points per game, and Georgia has a chance to go 12-0 and get that third chance in a row to stop the Tide.

Florida won 10 games in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach in the Swamp.  The Gators should be Georgia’s principle competitor this year, but Mullen has some rebuilding to do on the attack side.  Feleipe Franks is a near star at quarterback.  If he stays healthy, Franks should pass for 3,000 yards this year, as Florida has a receiving corps that rivals Alabama’s in the league.  A defense that returns a lot up front and in back could give the Gators a chance in Jacksonville against the Bulldogs.

Unless an appeal is successful, Missouri will be on probation this year and not eligible for the SEC Championship Game, the Playoffs, or a bowl.  The Tigers might be the dark horse in the division, and if eligibility is restored, this team might be good enough to sneak into the division title picture, probably in a three-way tie.  Former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant replaces Drew Lock at quarterback, and the Missouri offense will be a little different, using Bryant’s ability to run.  The Tigers have an excellent receiving corps, led by a potential Mackie Award-winning tight end Albert Okwuegbunam.  The Missouri defense is not up to the standards of Florida and Georgia, but Coach Barry Odom has been gifted with a plum of a schedule this year.  The Tigers have a chance to go to Georgia on November 9 with an 8-0 record.

South Carolina and Tennessee are teams in transition.  The Gamecocks are trying to stay relevant against a tough schedule, while Tennessee is trying to return to relevance after several years under .500 in the SEC.  The Gamecocks are looking at a mild rebuilding year with a young, inexperienced defense that gave up more than 27 points last year.  Having to compete with Florida and Georgia is tough, but USC has three tough non-conference opponents, in rival Clemson plus North Carolina and Appalachian St.

Tennessee returns the most starters of any team in a power 5 conference, and the Vols have a rather strong group of redshirt freshmen available for second year coach Jeremy Pruitt.  Pruitt is a master defensive specialist, and the Volunteers will improve on their 2018 numbers of 28 points and 377 yards per game allowed.  The Big Orange offense was inconsistent last year, and it won’t be championship quality this year.  With Jim Chaney brought on board as offensive coordinator, Tennessee should be a little more consistent in 2019, and the Vols should improve to the plus side of .500 and make a bowl game.

Kentucky had its best season since 1977 in 2018, but the Wildcats face a major rebuilding year under Coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats lost All-American Josh Allen off the defense, and even if they returned the rest of that unit, it would mean the defense would be weaker.  Unfortunately, UK lost six other starters from this side of the ball, and it was defense that allowed UK to win 10 games last year.  The offense also lost seven starters, including star running back Benny Snell.  Terry Wilson is a serviceable quarterback, but he’s not going to shred defensive backfields like Fromm or Franks in the East.

Vanderbilt is the perennial choice for last place in the East Division, but Coach Derek Mason has been able to produce bowl eligibility twice in three years, even having to play a tough non-conference foe in those years.  The Commodores lost star quarterback Kyle Shurmur, but they bring in former Ball State starter Riley Neal, and Neal has the talent to equal or even top the production given by Shurmur.  With running back Keyshawn Vaughn returning after leading the SEC in rushing, and with a receiving corps that is deep and talented, the Commodores could average more than 400 total yards and 30 points per game this year.  Unfortunately, the defense may give up even more, and that is why Vandy might not be as dandy in 2019.  The losses of secondary stars Joejuan Williams and Ladarius Wiley will be tough on an inexperienced pass defense.

In the West, Alabama is the odds-on favorite to go 12-0, win the SEC Championship Game, and then win the semifinal game in the Playoffs, where a rematch with Clemson will excite college football fans from coast to coast.  In the Nick Saban years in Tuscaloosa, the Tide has had numerous stars drafted into the NFL, and it looked Saban had a little rebuilding to do.  At Alabama, one future star replaces a former star.  There is no such thing as rebuilding when you perpetually have the number one recruiting class in college football.  With Tagovailoa returning at quarterback, and with the best receiving corps outside of the NFL, Alabama should have no trouble topping 40 or even 45 points and 300-350 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide has the SEC’s best defense yet again, but they could be a tad vulnerable against some tough running backs and top of the line quarterbacks (like Fromm).  It will not be a cakewalk for the Crimson Tide this year.  One team is liable to upset them along the way, but whether that team can also finish 7-1 in the league and win the crown is highly unlikely.

LSU appears to have the best chance of dethroning the King.  The Tigers won 10 games last year but did not compete with Alabama, losing at home 29-0.  Coach Ed Orgeron has done a fine job recruiting talent to Baton Rouge, and in quarterback Joe Burrow, he has a potentially great passer, something that has prevented the Tigers from beating Alabama in recent years.  Defensively, the Tigers have the best defense not wearing crimson, and the LSU secondary might be the best in the nation.  It will give the Tigers a chance to stop Tua and the Tide.  An early game against Texas in Austin should give the nation a great look to see if LSU has what it takes to knock off the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium in November.

Texas A&M faces an impossible schedule.  They play Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia, which is just plain brutal.  Second year coach Jimbo Fisher has worked wonders in his short time in College Station, but the A&M defense is going to be battered and bruised by these top notch offenses.  The Aggies could average more than 40 points per game in the other eight contests, and it would not be a surprise to see them upset one of those four powers.  At the same time, Auburn, Mississippi State, and South Carolina might sneak up and upset the Aggies.  8-4 is about the best that can be expected under these circumstances.

Auburn also has an impossible schedule this year, as in addition to Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M in the West, the Tigers have their annual game against Georgia, and then they must commence play against a tough Oregon team in a neutral site game.  With the loss of Jarrett Stidham and his top two targets, the offense may take a step backwards.  The defense should be quite strong, but in the SEC West, the Tigers could lose a lot of 21-17 games.  Coach Gus Malzahn is in a bit of a pickle on the Plains, and if War Eagles don’t win nine times this year, Gus may be on the bus out of town.

Mississippi State might be strong enough to compete for a division title in the Pac-12 or Big 12, but in the SEC West, they are probably not even in the top four.  In a league with incredibly talented defenses, the Bulldogs had the best of all in 2018, holding nine teams under 14 points.  Still, it led to only an 8-5 season, and the Maroons have issues on the offensive side of the ball this year, especially the all-important passing game.  Only a strong chance of going 4-0 outside the league will guarantee the Bulldogs bowl eligibility.

Arkansas might be the true sleeper of the league this year.  Second year coach Chad Morris had a major transition when he came to Fayetteville and switched the Razorbacks from a smash mouth offense to a more finesse spread offense.  He didn’t have the personnel to make the offense shine.  He will have a lot more of the necessary pieces this season, and he has a quarterback that can make the offense go.  Ben Hicks was Morris’s quarterback at SMU, when the Mustangs passed for close to 300 yards and scored 38 points per game in 2017.  He won’t replicate those numbers in the SEC, but Arkansas should top 28 points per game and challenge for a 6-6 record and bowl eligibility.

Ole Miss comes off probation this year, and the Rebels can become eligible for a bowl once again.  Unfortunately, the Rebels face a major rebuilding and transitioning with new offensive and defensive coordinators.  The offense welcomes Rich Rodriguez, and his read-option spread to the SEC.  The West Division foes have many years experience facing a nearly identical offense at Auburn, so it will not be something new and surprising.  The Rebels will not be as talented or competent at Auburn running this offense, so Ole Miss should see a considerable dip in production on this side of the ball.  Of course, losing quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and three star receivers would hurt no matter what offense was being run.  Defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre has a lot more experience to work with on his side of the ball, but the Rebels lack the talent to compete against the rest of the West.  It could be a long year in Oxford.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Southeastern Conference Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall
1	Georgia	233	1789
2	Florida	21	1499
3	Missouri	3	1149
4	S. Carolina	1	883
5	Tennessee	1	804
6	Kentucky	1	798
7	Vanderbilt	0	358
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall
1	Alabama	253	1813
2	LSU	5	1493
3	Texas A&M	0	1268
4	Auburn	1	1090
5	Mississippi St.	1	769
6	Ole Miss	0	504
7	Arkansas	0	343
	Championship Game Winner		Overall Votes
	Alabama		203
	Georgia		49
	LSU		3
	Mississippi St.		1
	Tennessee		1
	Florida		1
	South Carolina		1
	Auburn		1

 

The PiRate Ratings show just how strong the league begins the 2019 season.  Ten teams begin 2019 at least 10 points better than the average FBS school.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–SEC
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	126.2	123.6	126.6	125.5
Florida	120.5	117.8	119.5	119.2
Missouri	115.3	112.4	115.3	114.3
S. Carolina	114.0	112.2	113.9	113.4
Tennessee	112.6	111.6	111.1	111.8
Kentucky	109.5	107.5	108.3	108.4
Vanderbilt	104.3	103.3	103.4	103.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	135.6	130.6	136.4	134.2
L S U	123.3	120.4	122.0	121.9
Texas A&M	118.6	116.6	117.0	117.4
Auburn	116.8	114.4	115.9	115.7
Mississippi St.	117.0	112.5	116.7	115.4
Ole Miss	102.0	101.1	100.7	101.3
Arkansas	100.0	100.5	99.3	100.0
SEC Averages	115.4	113.2	114.7	114.4

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall
1	Georgia	8-0	12-1
2	Florida	6-2	10-2
3	Missouri	5-3	9-3
4	Tennessee	3-5	7-5
5	South Carolina	3-5	6-6
6	Kentucky	2-6	6-6
7	Vanderbilt	2-6	5-7
West Division
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall
1	Alabama	8-0	13-0*
2	LSU	6-2	10-2
3	Texas A&M	5-3	8-4
4	Auburn	4-4	8-4
5	Mississippi St.	3-5	7-5
6	Ole Miss	2-6	5-7
7	Arkansas	1-7	5-7
*	Alabama picked to win SEC Championship Game

 

Coaches That Could Be In Line To Get A Top 10 Job

Most of the coaches are already at a program that either is a top 10 job or has the potential to be.  However, there is one coach that could advance to a bigger program

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

 

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Will Muschamp, South Carolina

 

Malzahn’s seat is considerably hotter than Muschamp’s seat.  If Auburn does not find a way to finish in the top three in the SEC West, there will most likely be a change on the Plains.

 

Top Quarterbacks

We have been showcasing three and sometimes four quarterbacks in the other conferences, but there is NFL Draft potential deep into the ranking of SEC quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Feleipe Franks, Florida

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Kelly Bryant, Missouri

Jake Bentley, South Carolina

Joe Burrow, LSU

Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee

 

Best Offense

Alabama

Georgia

Missouri

 

Best Defense

Alabama

LSU

Florida

 

Coming Tomorrow:  It’s finally here!  This is week 0 of the NCAA Football season.  There are two games Saturday, and that means we will debut the full regular season ratings.  Look for our first weekly report tomorrow.

Here’s how we expect to release our information this year.

Mondays: Updated College Football Ratings and Spreads for the week’s FBS games

Tuesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the week’s games

Thursdays: Our PiRate Rating picks for the week’s college and NFL games

Very Important Reminder: The members of the PiRate Ratings do not wager on football games.  We issue our selections just for entertainment purposes only and remind you that they are presented free of charge.  You get what you paid for, so don’t go wagering your mortgage payment on our advice.

That said, the PiRate Picks have returned narrow overall profits for four consecutive seasons.  Our claim to fame is finding Money Line Parlays that return better than even money odds.  Thus, we can hit on just 40% of them and still turn a profit, because the average parlay has +150 to +180 odds.  This means that if you place $1 on a parlay at +180 odds, if you win, you will receive $2.80 back from the Nevada books (Your $1 investment plus a profit of $1.80 for winning the parlay).  If you win 30% of your wagers at +150, you will turn a profit of 5%.  If you can win one of every three parlays at an average of +150, your profit is 16.7%, more than the average return in the stock market over time.  Of course, over time, your chances of profiting in the stock market nears 100%, where in football wagering,  your chances of profiting remains at 47.6%, unless you have inside information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Saturday, March 23, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
LSU	114.6	0.0	Maryland	113.0	1.6
Kentucky	118.5	0.0	Wofford	113.9	4.6
Michigan	119.0	0.0	Florida	111.9	7.1
Florida St.	115.2	0.0	Murray St.	110.4	4.8
Gonzaga	123.1	0.0	Baylor	110.5	12.6
Michigan St.	120.9	0.0	Minnesota	110.2	10.7
Purdue	117.1	0.0	Villanova	111.8	5.3
Kansas	115.3	0.0	Auburn	115.7	-0.4

Saturday’s Schedule

TIME (ET)	GAME	TV	SITE
12:10 p.m.	(6) Maryland vs. (3) LSU	CBS	Jacksonville
Approx. 2:55 p.m.	(7) Wofford vs. (2) Kentucky	CBS	Jacksonville
5:15 p.m.	(10) Florida vs. (2) Michigan	CBS	Des Moines
6:10 p.m.	(12) Murray St. vs. (4) Florida St.	TNT	Hartford
7:10 p.m.	(9) Baylor vs. (1) Gonzaga	TBS	Salt Lake City
Approx. 8:00 p.m.	(10) Minnesota vs. (2) Michigan St.	CBS	Des Moines
Approx 8:55 p.m.	(6) Villanova vs. (3) Pudue	TNT	Hartford
Approx 9:55 p.m.	(5) Auburn vs. (4) Kansas	TBS	Salt Lake City

 

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Round of 32 for Saturday, March 23, 2019

Saturday, March 23, 2019  

Round of 32

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
LSU	58.68	3.4	36.9	70.0	15.3	17.7	10.2
Maryland	59.94	7.1	33.9	75.3	16.6	12.3	8.6

Maryland’s strength of schedule advantage is negligible.  LSU’s R+T advantage is also negligible.  Rebounding should be close to even, and it doesn’t appear like turnovers will decide this game.

It comes down to true shooting % margin, and Maryland’s is better by enough to move the needle into Terp territory.

Predicted Winner: Maryland but a close game

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kentucky	60.47	9.9	36.9	74.7	15.9	16.1	16.3
Wofford	52.40	8.2	32.8	76.3	13.6	18.1	13.5

Wofford looked great in the closing minutes of their blowout win over Seton Hall, just like they did when they closed out the SoCon Championship Game against UNC-Greensboro.  This will not repeat itself Saturday.  Kentucky might give the Terriers a dose of their own medicine, but it will more than likely come in the first half.  The Wildcats are too much out of Wofford’s class, and the SOS difference makes UK’s analytics much superior to Wofford’s.

Even with P. J. Washington still unavailable until next week at the earliest, Kentucky has too much muscle and quickness for the Terriers.  Wofford’s excellent inside-outside combination won’t be able to connect enough times.

Predicted Winner: Kentucky by double digits

 

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan	60.07	8.8	23.8	75.2	12.1	16.0	3.4
Florida	60.24	1.4	31.1	67.9	15.5	19.3	-1.0

Florida became one of the few teams with a negative R+T rating to advance to the Round of 32, and their R+T is still negative.  Michigan’s R+T is definitely a liability also, but at least it is positive.  The Wolverines has a far superior true shooting % margin, most of which is due to their top-rate defense, led by “defensive coordinator” Luke Yaklich.

Predicted Winner: Michigan by 5 to 12 points

 

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Florida St.	59.75	3.4	32.8	73.5	16.3	18.1	8.7
Murray St.	48.31	11.2	31.6	70.7	14.7	17.0	7.2

 

The popular pick is Ja Morant and the Racers, but the ACC was really tough at the top, and this data shows the Seminoles’ SOS looks insurmountable in this game.  The ‘Noles have a lot more muscle than Marquette, and they will be able to wear down Murray and control the boards while forcing the Racers into more second half mistakes.

Predicted Winner: Florida St. by 7 to 15

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Gonzaga	55.92	17.7	30.9	73.1	12.8	16.6	15.0
Baylor	58.64	1.5	37.8	71.4	16.6	16.2	9.0

Baylor’s SOS is a little better than Gonzaga, and the Bears should be able to get a couple extras offensive rebounds, but Gonzaga is too much better everywhere else.  A lot of people are picking the Bears to be the first team to send a #1-seed home, but in my opinion, Gonzaga has the best path to the Final Four of any #1-seed.

Predicted Winner: Gonzaga by double digits

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Michigan St.	61.31	13.6	33.6	73.8	16.0	12.8	11.9
Minnesota	59.70	2.0	31.5	72.4	14.8	14.3	1.1

Never before have conference rivals met in the Round of 32, and this does alter our data a little bit, but not much.  In their previous meeting, Michigan State thoroughly destroyed Minnesota in a game in East Lansing.  The analytical data in that game was not that much off the norm, as Michigan State was expected to dominate the offensive glass and get better percentage shots.

The data has not changed much from that home game for Sparty.  It will be closer this time, but the outcome should still be the same.  MSU has huge R+T and True Shooting % Margin advantages here.  Minny might not be able to beat the Spartans more than one time in 10 games on a neutral floor.

Predicted Winner: Michigan St. by 10-15 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Purdue	60.86	2.9	34.2	73.8	13.5	17.0	11.1
Villanova	58.03	5.1	30.5	72.9	14.2	15.3	3.2

 

The defending national champions may not make it to the Sweet 16.  Purdue isn’t that much slower than the Wildcats and much stronger.  The Boilermakers’ will eventually lose to a team with a superior TS Margin and enough muscle to make the board battle even, but I don’t think the Wildcats have the juice this year to be that team.

Predicted Winner: Purdue by 4 to 9 points

 

Team	SOS	TS Marg	OReb%	DReb%	TOV%	DTOV%	R+T
Kansas	62.70	6.1	29.7	72.0	16.0	15.6	2.7
Auburn	59.91	1.7	32.5	67.9	14.7	21.9	6.8

 

This will be an interesting game, and it should be a nail-biter unless one team just doesn’t have it and lays an egg.  I believe that if these teams play 10 times, it would be 5 to 5 in wins.  Kansas has the better TS% Margin, but not by that much.   The difference in this game is that Auburn can force turnovers, and Kansas is turnover-prone.  That’s where I give the Tigers an ever so slight advantage overall.

Predicted Winner: Auburn by 6 or less

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 21, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Louisville	114.1	0.0	Minnesota	109.7	4.4
LSU	114.6	0.0	Yale	106.1	8.5
Auburn	115.7	0.0	New Mexico St.	108.9	6.8
Vermont	105.7	1.0	Florida St.	115.4	-8.7
Michigan St.	121.1	0.0	Bradley	99.8	21.3
Maryland	113.1	0.0	Belmont	109.5	3.6
Kansas	114.5	0.0	Northeastern	105.8	8.7
Marquette	112.6	0.0	Murray St.	109.2	3.4
Nevada	113.1	0.0	Florida	111.5	1.6
Kentucky	118.0	0.0	Abilene Christian	101.4	16.6
Villanova	111.9	1.0	Saint Mary’s	111.1	1.8
Gonzaga	122.9	0.0	Fairleigh-Dickinson	97.3	25.6
Michigan	119.0	0.0	Montana	102.4	16.6
Wofford	113.6	0.0	Seton Hall	108.9	4.7
Purdue	117.1	0.0	Old Dominion	103.6	13.5
Syracuse	110.8	0.0	Baylor	110.0	0.8

Schedule for Thursday

Time	Game	TV	Location
12:15 p.m.	(10) Minnesota vs. (7) Louisville	CBS	Des Moines
12:40 p.m.	(14) Yale vs. (3) LSU	truTV	Jacksonville
1:30 p.m.	(12) New Mexico St. vs. (5) Auburn	TNT	Salt Lake City
2 p.m.	(13) Vermont vs. (4) Florida St.	TBS	Hartford
Approx. 2:30 PM	(15) Bradley vs. (2) Michigan St.	CBS	Des Moines
Approx. 2:55 PM	(11) Belmont vs. (6) Maryland	truTV	Jacksonville
Approx. 3:45 PM	(13) Northeastern vs. (4) Kansas	TNT	Salt Lake City
Approx. 4:15 PM	(12) Murray St. vs. (5) Marquette	TBS	Hartford
6:50 p.m.	(10) Florida vs. (7) Nevada	TNT	Des Moines
7:10 p.m.	(15) Abilene Christian vs. (2) Kentucky	CBS	Jacksonville
7:20 p.m.	(11) Saint Mary’s vs. (6) Villanova	TBS	Hartford
7:27 p.m.	(16) Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. (1) Gonzaga	truTV	Salt Lake City
Approx. 9:20 PM	(15) Montana vs. (2) Michigan	TNT	Des Moines
Approx. 9:40 PM	(10) Seton Hall vs. (7) Wofford	CBS	Jacksonville
Approx. 9:50 PM	(14) Old Dominion vs. (3) Purdue	TBS	Hartford
Approx. 9:57 PM	(9) Baylor vs. (8) Syracuse	truTV	Salt Lake City

Happy Spring!

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Saturday, March 16, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Vermont	105.6	3.0	Maryland Baltimore Co.	96.2	12.4
Memphis	107.1	3.0	Houston	115.4	-5.3
Cincinnati	110.3	0.0	Wichita St.	103.9	6.4
Rhode Island	102.0	0.0	St. Bonaventure	102.3	-0.3
Davidson	106.3	0.0	Saint Louis	102.9	3.4
Duke	123.2	0.5	Florida St.	115.0	8.7
Kansas	114.9	1.5	Iowa St.	114.3	2.1
Seton Hall	108.6	0.5	Villanova	113.1	-4.0
Montana	101.6	0.0	Eastern Washington	96.6	5.0
Wisconsin	115.4	0.5	Michigan St.	120.3	-4.4
Minnesota	110.0	0.0	Michigan	118.7	-8.7
UC-Irvine	105.6	0.0	Cal St. Fullerton	99.0	6.6
Old Dominion	103.4	0.0	Western Kentucky	103.3	0.1
Harvard	102.9	0.0	Penn	102.3	0.6
Yale	106.0	2.5	Princeton	99.3	9.2
Buffalo	115.3	0.0	Bowling Green	104.5	10.8
Norfolk St.	94.3	0.0	North Carolina Central	92.3	2.0
San Diego St.	102.7	0.0	Utah St.	108.6	-5.9
Washington	109.5	0.0	Oregon	109.7	-0.2
Abilene Christian	101.1	0.0	New Orleans	94.6	6.5
Florida	111.4	0.0	Auburn	115.0	-3.6
Kentucky	118.0	0.0	Tennessee	118.5	-0.5
UT-Arlington	100.8	0.0	Georgia Southern	95.9	4.9
Georgia St.	103.2	0.0	Texas St.	102.8	0.4
Prairie View A&M	96.5	0.0	Texas Southern	97.1	-0.6
New Mexico St.	108.1	0.0	Grand Canyon	105.1	3.0

 

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

At Vermont

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Vermont (26-6)	3	Maryland-Baltimore Co. (21-12)

 

 

American Athletic Conference
Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Houston	84	Connecticut	45
Memphis	79	Central Florida	55
Cincinnati	82	SMU	74
Wichita St.	80	Temple	74

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Houston (30-2)	5	Memphis (21-12)
2	Cincinnati (26-6)	6	Wichita St. (19-13)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference
Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Rhode Island	75	VCU	70
St. Bonaventure	68	George Mason	57
Davidson	70	Saint Joseph’s	60
Saint Louis	64	Dayton	55

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Rhode Island (18-14)	4	St. Bonaventure (17-15)
2	Davidson (24-8)	6	Saint Louis (21-12)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Florida St.	69	Virginia	59
Duke	74	North Carolina	73

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
5	Florida St. (27-6)	3	Duke (28-5)

 

 

Big 12 Conference
Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Iowa St.	63	Kansas St.	59
Kansas	88	West Virginia	74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
5	Iowa St. (22-11)	3	Kansas (25-8)

 

 

Big East Conference
Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Villanova	71	Xavier	67 ot
Seton Hall	81	Marquette	79

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Villanova (24-9)	3	Seton Hall (20-12)

 

 

Big Sky Conference
Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Montana	78	Weber St.	49
Eastern Washington	77	Southern Utah	61

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Montana (25-8)	3	Eastern Washington (16-17)

 

Big Ten Conference
Site: United Center, Chicago, IL
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Michigan St.	77	Ohio St.	70
Wisconsin	66	Nebraska	62
Minnesota	75	Purdue	73
Michigan	74	Iowa	53

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Michigan St. (26-6)	4	Wisconsin (23-9)
7	Minnesota (21-12)	3	Michigan (27-5)

 

 

Big West Conference
Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
UC-Irvine	75	Long Beach St.	67
Cal St. Fulerton	64	UC Santa Barbara	58

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	UC Irvine (29-5)	3	Cal St. Fullerton (16-16)

 

 

Conference USA
Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Old Dominion	61	UAB	59
Western Kentucky	70	Southern Miss.	59

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Old Dominion (25-8)	2	Western Kentucky (20-13)

 

Ivy League (Ivy Madness)
Site: John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT (Yale)
Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Harvard (17-10)	4	Penn (19-11)
2	Yale (20-7)	3	Princeton (16-11)

 

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)
Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Buffalo	85	Central Michigan	81
Bowling Green	71	Northern Illinois	67

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Buffalo (30-3)	3	Bowling Green (22-11)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference
Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
UNC Central	65	North Carolina A&T	63
Norfolk St.	75	Howard	69

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Norfolk St. (21-12)	3	North Carolina Central (17-15)

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
San Diego St.	65	Nevada	56
Utah St.	85	Fresno St.	60

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
4	San Diego St. (21-11)	2	Utah St. (27-6)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Washington	66	Colorado	61
Oregon	79	Arizona St.	75 ot

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Washington (26-7)	6	Oregon (22-12)

 

 

Southland Conference
Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
New Orleans	79	Sam Houston St.	76
Abilene Christian	69	Southeastern Louisiana	66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	New Orleans (19-12)	2	Abilene Christian (26-6)

 

 

Southeastern Conference
Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Florida	76	LSU	73
Auburn	73	South Carolina	64
Kentucky	73	Alabama	55
Tennessee	83	Mississippi St.	76

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Florida (19-14)	5	Auburn (24-9)
2	Kentucky (27-5)	3	Tennessee (28-4)

 

 

Sun Belt Conference
Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA
Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Georgia Southern	81	Louisiana Monroe	67
Texas St.	79	South Alabama	67

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	UT Arlington (16-15)	3	Georgia Southern (21-11)
1	Georgia St. (22-9)	4	Texas St. (24-8)

 

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference
Site: at Higher Seeds
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Prairie View A&M	81	Grambling	71
Texas Southern	80	Alabama St.	66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Prairie View A&M (22-12)	2	Texas Southern (21-12)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Semifinals–Friday, March 15
New Mexico St.	79	UT RGV	72
Grand Canyon	78	New Mexico St.	74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	New Mexico St. (29-4)	3	Grand Canyon (20-12)

 

 

Automatic Bids To Date

Team	Conf	W-L
Liberty	Atlantic Sun	28-6
Gardner-Webb	Big South	23-11
Murray St.	Ohio Valley	27-4
Bradley	Missouri Valley	20-14
Wofford	Southern	29-4
Iona	Metro Atlantic	17-15
Fairleigh-Dickinson	Northeast	20-13
Northern Kentucky	Horizon	26-8
Northeastern	Colonial	23-10
Saint Mary’s	West Coast	22-11
North Dakota St.	Summit	18-15
Colgate	Patriot	24-10

 

The PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Convene

The PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus have gathered (if only electronically) is our bunkers, otherwise known as our man caves and woman caves watching multiple games simultaneously to get better familiar with all the teams still trying to Dance.

Tonight, we will begin putting our opinions together to formulate our final Bracketology selections for Sunday afternoon.  We will publish our initial predicted 68 around 2 PM EDT on Sunday and then a final prediction at the conclusion of the last meaningful conference tournament championship game, if one might affect the seedings.

At the moment, there are games that could wildly swing the bottom of the seed line, affecting who plays in the First Four, and there are a couple of potenial bid-stealers still alive.

Here is our planned schedule for the weekend

Saturday late morning: Bracketology number 1 (Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday morning: Bracketology number 2 (Again, Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday early afternoon: Bracket Gurus Initial Field of 68 Predictions

Sunday late afternoon: Bracket Gurus Final Field of 68 Predictions (if necessary)

Note: The Captain and the Gurus are making their selections trying to predict what the Selection Committee will do and not by using their own opinions of which 68 teams should be in the field.  One of out methods will include trying to predict political biases of the Committee members.  By political, we don’t mean Liberal vs. Conservative.  We mean Power Conference vs. Mid-Major and Low-Major, or in other words, why State U at 18-16 will beat out Tiny Tech at 29-5 that lost in their conference championship game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, March 15, 2019

March 15, 2019
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Virginia	Gonzaga	North Carolina	Duke
2	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Tennessee	LSU
3	Michigan	Purdue	Houston	Texas Tech
4	Florida St.	Wisconsin	Kansas	Kansas St.
5	Mississippi St.	Virginia Tech	Marquette	Nevada
6	Buffalo	Villanova	Maryland	Auburn
7	Wofford	Cincinnati	Iowa St.	Louisville
8	VCU	Iowa	Central Florida	Washington
9	Syracuse	Ole Miss	Baylor	Seton Hall
10	Minnesota	Oklahoma	Ohio St.	Utah St.
11	Temple	Arizona St.	North Carolina St.	TCU/Florida
12	St. John’s/Belmont	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.
13	Liberty	Vermont	UC-Irvine	Old Dominion
14	Montana	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Colgate	Gardner-Webb
16	Sam Houston St.	Prairie View	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	North Dakota St./Norfolk St.

 

Last 4 Bye	Utah St.	Temple	Arizona St.	North Carolina St.
Last 4 In	TCU	Florida	St. John’s	Belmont

 

 

First 4 Out	Alabama	Clemson	Indiana	Furman
Next 4 Out	Nebraska	Texas	UNC Greensboro	Georgetown

 

Conference	Bids
ACC	8
Big Ten	8
SEC	7
Big 12	6
Big East	5
AAC	4
MWC	2
Pac-12	2
West Coast	2
Ohio Valley	2
One-Bid Leagues	22

 

Bid-Stealers Are Alive

There are numerous bid stealers alive in the Power Conference tournaments.

Memphis plays in the AAC Quarterfinals today where they host the tournament

Saint Louis, Dayton, and Davidson are still alive in the Atlantic 10

West Virginia is an upset of Kansas today away from making the Big 12 Finals

Xavier is in the Big East semifinals playing Villanova today

Nebraska is alive in the Big Ten and playing Wisconsin in today’s quarterfinals

Fresno St. and San Diego St.  both play in the Mountain West semifinals today

Oregon and Colorado look like game competitors in the Pac-12 semifinals today

South Carolina begins play in the SEC quarterfinals today, while Alabama must beat Kentucky to stay in the mix as one of the first teams out

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, March 15, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Houston	114.9	0.0	Connecticut	105.1	9.8
Memphis	106.7	3.0	Central Florida	110.3	-0.6
Cincinnati	110.3	0.0	SMU	103.1	7.2
Temple	106.8	0.0	Wichita St.	104.7	2.1
Virginia Commonwealth	111.3	0.0	Rhode Island	103.0	8.3
St. Bonaventure	102.6	0.0	George Mason	100.7	1.9
Davidson	106.3	0.0	Saint Joseph’s	99.2	7.1
Dayton	107.9	0.0	Saint Louis	102.8	5.1
Virginia	122.1	0.0	Florida St.	113.4	8.7
North Carolina	121.8	0.0	Duke	123.5	-1.7
Kansas St.	112.9	1.0	Iowa St.	113.6	0.3
Kansas	114.9	2.0	West Virginia	105.7	11.2
Villanova	112	0.0	Xavier	106.0	6.0
Seton Hall	108.6	1.0	Marquette	113.0	-3.4
Montana	101.6	0.0	Weber St.	97.4	4.2
Southern Utah	93.4	0.0	Eastern Washington	95.2	-1.8
Michigan St.	120.9	0.0	Ohio St.	110.5	10.4
Wisconsin	115.4	1.0	Nebraska	111.7	4.7
Purdue	117.5	0.0	Minnesota	109.2	8.3
Michigan	118.3	0.0	Iowa	111.6	6.7
UC-Irvine	105.6	0.0	Long Beach St.	97.1	8.5
UC Santa Barbara	99.8	0.0	Cal St. Fullerton	98.3	1.5
Old Dominion	103.4	0.0	UAB	100.3	3.1
Western Kentucky	103.4	0.0	Southern Miss.	104.0	-0.6
Buffalo	115.3	0.0	Central Michigan	103.2	12.1
Northern Illinois	102.6	0.0	Bowling Green	104.1	-1.5
North Carolina A&T	92.5	0.0	North Carolina Central	92.6	-0.1
Norfolk St.	94.3	0.0	Howard	91.1	3.2
Nevada	113.9	1.0	San Diego St.	103.3	11.6
Utah St.	110.6	0.0	Fresno St.	108.5	2.1
Washington	109.5	0.0	Colorado	107.0	2.5
Arizona St.	107.9	0.0	Oregon	109.7	-1.8
Sam Houston St.	99.7	0.0	New Orleans	94.7	5.0
Abilene Christian	101.1	0.0	Southeastern Louisiana	95.7	5.4
LSU	114.8	0.0	Florida	112.9	1.9
South Carolina	106.9	0.0	Auburn	115.3	-8.4
Kentucky	118.0	0.0	Alabama	108.2	9.8
Tennessee	119.0	1.0	Mississippi St.	114.0	6.0
Georgia Southern	104.7	0.0	Louisiana Monroe	102.3	2.4
Texas St.	103.0	0.0	South Alabama	97.4	5.6
Prairie View A&M	96.5	0.0	Grambling	94.1	2.4
Texas Southern	96.6	0.0	Alabama St.	89.0	7.6
New Mexico St.	108.1	0.0	UT Rio Grande Valley	98.7	9.4
Utah Valley	105.1	0.0	Grand Canyon	105.6	-0.5

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference
Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN
First Round–Thursday, March 14
Connecticut	80	South Florida	73
Memphis	83	Tulane	68
SMU	74	Tulsa	65
Wichita St.	73	East Carolina	57

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Houston (29-2)	9	Connecticut (16-16)
4	Central Florida (23-7)	5/12	Memphis (20-12)
2	Cincinnati (25-6)	10	SMU (15-16)
3	Temple (23-8)	6	Wichita St. (18-13)

Atlantic 10 Conference
Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Rhode Island	76	La Salle	57
George Mason	61	George Washington	57
Saint Joseph’s	92	Duquesne	86
Saint Louis	71	Richmond	68

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Virginia Commonwealth (25-6)	8	Rhode Island (17-14)
4	St. Bonaventure (16-15)	5	George Mason (18-14)
2	Davidson (23-8)	10	Saint Joseph’s (14-18)
3	Dayton (21-10)	6	Saint Louis (20-12)

Atlantic Coast Conference
Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Virginia	76	North Carolina St.	56
Florida St.	65	Virginia Tech	63 ot
North Carolina	83	Louisville	70
Duke	84	Syracuse	72

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Virginia (29-2)	5	Florida St. (26-6)
2	North Carolina (27-5)	3	Duke (27-5)

Big 12 Conference
Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Kansas St.	70	TCU	61
Iowa St.	83	Baylor	66
West Virginia	79	Texas Tech	74
Kansas	65	Texas	57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Kansas St. (25-7)	5	Iowa St. (21-11)
10	West Virginia (14-19)	3	Kansas (24-8)

Big East Conference
Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Villanova	73	Providence	62
Xavier	63	Creighton	61
Marquette	86	St. John’s	54
Seton Hall	73	Georgetown	57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Villanova (23-9)	4	Xavier (17-14)
2	Marquette (24-8)	3	Seton Hall (19-12)

Big Sky Conference
Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Montana	79	Sacramento St.	73
Weber St.	81	Portland St.	71
Southern Utah	83	Northern Colorado	63
Eastern Washington	90	Montana St.	84

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Montana (24-8)	4	Weber St. (18-14)
7	Southern Utah (16-15)	3	Eastern Washington (15-17)

Big Ten Conference
Site: United Center, Chicago, IL
Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Ohio St.	79	Indiana	75
Nebraska	69	Maryland	61
Minnesota	77	Penn St.	72 ot
Iowa	83	Illinois	62

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Michigan St. (25-6)	8	Ohio St. (19-13)
4	Wisconsin (22-9)	13	Nebraska (18-15)
2	Purdue (23-8)	7	Minnesota (20-12)
3	Michigan (26-5)	6	Iowa (22-10)

Big West Conference
Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
UC-Irvine	63	Cal St. Riverside	44
Long Beach St.	68	Hawaii	66
Cal St. Fullerton	75	UC Davis	71 ot
UC Santa Barbara	71	Cal St. Northridge	68

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	UC Irvine (28-5)	5	Long Beach St. (15-18)
2	UC Santa Barbara (22-9)	3	Cal St. Fullerton (15-16)

Conference USA
Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Old Dominion	57	Louisiana Tech	56
UAB	85	UTSA	76
Western Kentucky	67	North Texas	51
Southern Miss.	82	Marshall	73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Old Dominion (24-8)	5	UAB (20-13)
2	Western Kentucky (19-13)	3	Southern Miss. (20-11)

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)
Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Buffalo	82	Akron	46
Central Michigan	89	Kent St.	81
Northern Illinois	80	Toledo	76
Bowling Green	99	Ball St.	86

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Buffalo (29-3)	5	Central Michigan (23-10)
7	Northern Illinois (27-16)	3	Bowling Green (21-11)

Mideastern Athletic Conference
Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
UNC Central	75	Delaware St.	57
Howard	80	Bethune-Cookman	71
North Carolina A&T	82	Coppin St.	79 ot
Norfolk St.	78	South Carolina St.	73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	North Carolina A&T (19-12)	3	North Carolina Central (16-15)
1	Norfolk St. (20-12)	4	Howard (17-15)

Mountain West Conference
Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Nevada	77	Boise St.	69
San Diego St.	63	UNLV	55
Utah St.	91	New Mexico	83
Fresno St.	76	Air Force	50

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
1	Nevada (29-3)	4	San Diego St. (20-11)
2	Utah St. (26-6)	3	Fresno St. (22-8)

Pac-12 Conference
Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Washington	78	USC	75
Colorado	73	Oregon St.	58
Arizona St.	83	UCLA	72
Oregon	66	Utah	54

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Washington (25-7)	5	Colorado (21-11)
2	Arizona St. (22-9)	6	Oregon (21-12)

Southland Conference
Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
New Orleans	76	Lamar	72
Southeastern Louisiana	79	Central Arkansas	65

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Sam Houston St. (21-10)	4	New Orleans (18-12)
2	Abilene Christian (25-6)	3	Southeastern Louisiana (17-15)

Southeastern Conference
Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Florida	66	Arkansas	50
Auburn	81	Missouri	71
Alabama	62	Ole Miss	57
Mississippi St.	80	Texas A&M	54

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	LSU (26-5)	8	Florida (18-14)
4	South Carolina (16-15)	5	Auburn (23-9)
2	Kentucky (26-5)	10	Alabama (18-14)
3	Tennessee (27-4)	6	Mississippi St. (23-9)

Sun Belt Conference
Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA
Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Louisiana Monroe	80	Coastal Carolina	50
South Alabama	70	Louisiana	69

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
3	Georgia Southern (20-11)	7	Louisiana Monroe (18-14)
4	Texas St. (23-8)	8	South Alabama (17-16)

Southwestern Athletic Conference
Site: at Higher Seeds
Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 12
Prairie View A&M	86	Alcorn St.	66
Grambling	59	Arkansas Pine Bluff	52
Alabama St.	58	Jackson St.	49
Texas Southern	80	Southern	70

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Prairie View A&M (21-12)	4	Grambling (17-15)
2	Texas Southern (20-12)	6	Alabama St. (12-18)

Western Athletic Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
New Mexico St.	86	Chicago St.	49
UT RGV	85	Cal St. Bakersfield	70
Grand Canyon	84	Seattle	75
Utah Valley	70	UM Kansas City	64

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	New Mexico St. (28-4)	4	UT Rio Grande Valley (19-15)
2	Utah Valley (24-8)	3/6	Grand Canyon (19-12)