PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 18, 2019

February 18, 2019

Seed	School	Conf.
1	Gonzaga	West Coast
1	Duke	ACC
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Tennessee	SEC
2	Kentucky	SEC
2	Michigan St.	Big Ten
2	Michigan	Big Ten
2	North Carolina	ACC
3	Purdue	Big Ten
3	Houston	American Athletic
3	Kansas	Big 12
3	Nevada	Mountain West
4	LSU	SEC
4	Marquette	Big East
4	Iowa St.	Big 12
4	Virginia Tech	ACC
5	Louisville	ACC
5	Iowa	Big Ten
5	Texas Tech	Big 12
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten
6	Villanova	Big East
6	Maryland	Big Ten
6	Florida St.	ACC
6	Kansas St.	Big 12
7	Cincinnati	American Athletic
7	Buffalo	Mid-American
7	Auburn	SEC
7	Mississippi St.	SEC
8	Wofford	Southern
8	Washington	Pac-12
8	Baylor	Big 12
8	Ole Miss	SEC
9	TCU	Big 12
9	Texas	Big 12
9	North Carolina St.	ACC
9	Utah St.	Mountain West
10	St. John’s	Big East
10	Syracuse	ACC
10	Minnesota	Big Ten
10	Central Florida	American Athletic
11	Temple	American Athletic
11	Oklahoma	Big 12
11	Clemson	ACC
11	Ohio St.	Big Ten
11	Seton Hall	Big East
12	Alabama	SEC
12	Butler	Big East
12	Hofstra	Colonial
12	Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Atlantic 10
13	New Mexico St.	WAC
13	Belmont	Ohio Valley
13	Vermont	America East
13	Yale	Ivy League
14	Old Dominion	CUSA
14	South Dakota St.	Summit
14	UC Irvine	Big West
14	Northern Kentucky	Horizon
15	Texas St.	Sun Belt
15	Montana	Big Sky
15	Missouri St.	Missouri Valley
15	Radford	Big South
16	Bucknell	Patriot
16	Sam Houston St.	Southland
16	Rider	Metro Atlantic
16	Texas Southern	SWAC
16	St. Francis (PA)	Northeast
16	Norfolk St.	MEAC

 

First Four OUT

Indiana

Florida

Arizona St.

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

Murray St.

 

Last Four IN

Ohio St.

Seton Hall

Alabama

Butler

 

Last Four BYES

Central Florida

Temple

Oklahoma

Clemson

 

First Four

For the first time this year, we have staggered the seed lines for the First Four games involving the final four at-large bids.  We have one game pitting 11-seeds and another game pitting 12-seeds.  This could change before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the First Four games have mostly  been with 11-seeds, but there have been 12-seeds, and even 13-seeds and 14-seeds earlier in this decade.

Because of the rule that no teams from the same conference can face off in the First Four games, we had to move two teams in the seed line to prevent a conference matchup in Dayton.

11-Seed Line: Ohio State vs. Seton Hall

12-Seed Line: Alabama vs. Butler

16-Seed Line: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

16-Seed Line: Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

There are four teams that if they lose in their conference tournament, they will still be an at-large entry, and their conference will improve from one to two bids.

Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference

Washington in the Pac-12 Conference

Wofford in the Southern Conference

Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference

 

There are four other Mid-Major teams that need to be in the discussion by the Selection Committee (in addition to the Mid-Majors already on our Bubble above).

Murray State (or Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference

Liberty (or Lipscomb) in the Atlantic Sun Conference

Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference

Toledo in the Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

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Bubbles Are Boiling

Five Sundays from today, the NCAA Selection Committee will choose and seed the 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament.  At the present time, the Bubble list has begun to emerge with greater clarity.  There are about three dozen teams still competing for at-large bids, and more than half will not get into the Dance.

Some of the teams under consideration will eventually receive automatic bids when they win their conference tournaments.  On the other hand, there could be a few major upsets in the power conference tournaments forcing a bubble to pierce for one of these teams.

Let’s look at the principle boiling bubbles today.  We will let you decide if their resumes warrant bids or warrant bans to the NIT.

Team	Net	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Alabama	44	2-6	6-1	4-2	3-0
Arizona State	72	3-1	4-3	3-1	6-2
Baylor	32	3-5	7-1	1-0	5-2
Belmont	60	3-1	2-1	2-2	11-0
Butler	53	1-7	6-3	4-1	3-0
Central Florida	45	0-2	4-2	7-0	6-1
Clemson	39	2-6	2-2	5-0	6-0
Creighton	57	2-9	3-2	4-0	3-0
Davidson	68	0-2	3-1	6-3	8-0
Florida	42	1-9	3-1	3-1	5-0
Hofstra	51	0-2	0-1	4-1	16-0
Indiana	49	4-8	2-3	1-0	6-0
Lipscomb	30	2-3	2-1	2-0	12-0
Minnesota	58	3-6	4-2	4-0	5-0
New Mexico St.	59	0-1	2-1	8-2	9-0
North Carolina St	37	1-6	5-0	2-1	9-0
Ohio St.	36	4-5	3-2	4-0	5-0
Oklahoma	41	3-8	5-2	7-0	0-0
Ole Miss	35	3-7	3-0	4-0	6-0
Saint Mary’s	50	1-5	1-2	6-3	7-0
San Francisco	52	0-4	1-1	5-1	11-0
Seton Hall	69	2-6	7-1	2-2	3-0
St. John’s	48	4-4	4-1	2-2	8-0
TCU	33	1-7	5-0	7-0	4-0
Temple	55	1-5	5-1	4-1	7-0
Texas	34	4-6	4-4	3-1	3-0
Toledo	54	0-1	2-0	8-3	9-0
UNC Greensboro	46	1-3	1-0	5-0	13-0
Utah State	38	1-2	2-2	4-2	10-0
VCU	43	1-3	2-2	7-1	7-0
Wofford	28	2-4	3-0	4-0	9-0
Yale	62	0-3	1-0	5-1	8-0

 

Team	EFF.	SOS	Rd/Neut	Con	Ovr
Alabama	48	17	6-7	6-5	15-9
Arizona State	63	66	5-4	7-4	16-7
Baylor	34	50	5-4	7-4	16-8
Belmont	64	160	8-3	10-2	19-4
Butler	53	25	4-8	5-7	14-11
Central Florida	50	89	6-3	7-3	17-5
Clemson	31	36	4-6	5-5	15-8
Creighton	49	12	5-6	4-7	13-11
Davidson	75	106	7-6	9-2	18-6
Florida	38	29	5-7	4-6	12-11
Hofstra	67	225	7-4	11-1	21-4
Indiana	45	37	3-7	4-9	13-11
Lipscomb	33	204	9-3	11-0	20-4
Minnesota	56	51	5-6	6-7	16-8
New Mexico St.	54	134	9-3	9-1	20-4
North Carolina St	40	194	5-4	5-6	17-7
Ohio St.	32	49	6-3	6-6	16-7
Oklahoma	42	7	7-6	3-9	15-10
Ole Miss	39	63	7-4	6-4	16-7
Saint Mary’s	44	47	3-8	6-4	15-10
San Francisco	47	121	5-5	6-4	18-6
Seton Hall	66	40	6-6	5-6	14-9
St. John’s	52	57	7-4	6-6	18-7
TCU	37	20	6-5	5-6	17-7
Temple	76	56	8-5	7-4	17-7
Texas	28	3	4-6	6-6	14-11
Toledo	51	126	9-3	8-3	20-4
UNC Greensboro	80	188	10-2	11-1	22-3
Utah State	43	115	8-5	8-3	18-6
VCU	46	54	6-5	8-2	17-6
Wofford	30	133	8-3	13-0	21-4
Yale	72	123	7-4	5-1	15-4

 

Here’s an explanation of each column

Net: This is their official NCAA NET rating, the new and improved formula that supersedes all other, like the RPI.

Q1-Q4: These are the won-loss records for each quadrant.  The Quadrants are broken up into these groups.

Quadrant #	Home	Neutral	Road
Quadrant 1	1-30	1-50	1-75
Quadrant 2	31-75	51-100	76-135
Quadrant 3	76-160	101-200	136-240
Quadrant 4	161-353	201-353	241-353

If you play the #101 team at home, this is a Quadrant 3 opponent.  If you play the #101 team on their floor, this is a Quadrant 2 opponent.  If you host the #50 team, it counts as Quadrant 2, but if you play that team on a neutral floor or on the road, it is a Quadrant 1 game.

EFF.: This is the ranking in total efficiency, which is offensive efficiency combined with defensive efficiency and adjusted for strength of schedule.

SOS: This is the ranking of strengths of schedule for each team.  Keep in mind that the difference between #1 and #50 may be minimal, while the difference between #51 and #100 may be considerably more.

Rd/Neut: This is the combined road and neutral court won-loss records

Con and Ovr: Although not used by the Committee, this is the conference and overall won-loss records for each team for you to look at and decide for yourself if a certain team belongs in the Dance.  We are not 100% convinced that committee members don’t subconsciously let this stat creep into their decision-making process.  If a team finishes four games under .500 in their league while another finishes four game over .500, that four game swing is going to count for something, even if it isn’t supposed to count.

Trying To Think Like A Committee Member

Let’s look at each school on this list.

Alabama

With wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Committee might overlook losses to Northeastern and Georgia State.  Two of the Tide’s non-conference losses are to probable NCAA Tournament teams Central Florida and Baylor.  The Tide sits at 6-5 in the SEC and projects to a 10-8 or 11-7 final mark.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation with possibility of starting in Dayton.

Arizona St.

The Pac-12 surely cannot be limited to just one bid, can it?  The Committee is not supposed to look at this metric, but this is no different than when the judge tells the jury to disregard a remark from a sustained objection in a court room.  Of course, it is remembered.

Arizona State beat Kansas and Mississippi State.  This past weekend, they handed Washington their first Pac-12 loss.  The Sun Devils lost a close game to Nevada.  They also lost at home to Princeton and recently were blown out at home by Pac-12 cellar dweller Washington State by 21 points.  They also lost at SEC last place Vanderbilt by 16, and they barely beat SEC #13 Georgia.

Does the Kansas win and close loss to Nevada do enough for the Sun Devils?  Their NET rating is 72, and their strength of schedule is 66.  In their favor, Arizona State has a winning record away from Tempe.

Verdict: Sorry, nothing in the inbox but some ads for hotels near Madison Square Garden in late March that you probably won’t need.

Baylor

The Bears lost early in the season to some really weak teams in Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but the TSU loss may turn out to be to a future NCAA Tournament team.  At 7-4 in the Big 12 with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and TCU, plus a sweep of Oklahoma, Baylor is on the inside as of now.  We project Baylor to finish 10-8 in the league, and with this league’s strength, Coach Scott Drew can sleep peacefully when his team is eventually ousted in the Big 12 Tournament.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and does not have to make travel arrangements to Dayton.

 

Belmont

Every year, Coach Rick Byrd has his Bruins among consideration for an NCAA Tournament bid, and this year is no different.  Belmont won at UCLA and Murray State, and they swept rival Lipscomb, who is in the top 30 and also in discussion for a potential at-large bid.  Among their losses is to Purdue in West Lafayette, but also among the losses are two to Jacksonville State.

We project Belmont to win out in the regular season to enter the OVC Tournament at 16-2 in the conference and 24-4 overall.  The Bruins will be the mild favorite to win the automatic bid, but Murray State, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville State will have shots as well.  If Belmont lost to Murray in the Championship Game and finished 26-5, the Bruins would have to be part of the at-large discussion.

Verdict: The Bruins need to win the automatic bid and then become a very game 12-seed.  Too many Bubble teams have to fold for Belmont to rise up and secure an at-large bid.  We believe as an automatic bid-winner and #12 seed, the Bruins are equipped with the talent and coaching to win their first tournament game after some near misses.

 

Butler

This Bulldogs team is not in the class with some of their recent NCAA Tournament teams.  A lone Quadrant 1 win came in a neutral contest with Florida, a team which they played a second time a month later and lost by close to 40 points.

The next most impressive victory is a home win over Ole Miss.  Butler’s NET rating of 53 is on the in-out line, but in their favor is a #25 strength of schedule

Verdict: We hear Dayton is lovely in March.  Even if it snows several inches, you will be very happy you got to visit Southwestern Ohio.  It’s an easy 2 hour drive.

 

Central Florida

The Golden Knights beat Alabama and Temple, and they lost to Houston.  UCF should get to 10 wins in the American Athletic Conference, but the Knights need to pull off one big win to solidify their at-large standing against their peers.  UCF will get that chance with games remaining with Cincinnati and Houston.  A sweep of South Florida might also be impressive enough to push them over the top.

Verdict: Hanging on to a First Four bid for now

 

Clemson

The Tigers don’t have many great wins on their schedule.  Their recent upset of Virginia Tech and an earlier win over Lipscomb are the only Quadrant 1 victories.  In their favor, they are 11-0 against Q3 and Q4 combined, so their losses have been to good or great teams.

We project CU to go 8-10 in ACC play, which in most years gets an ACC team into the field, whether it is deserved or not.  Clemson might need one more upset to complete their resume-building.  They certainly need to hold serve against the teams beneath them in the league.  A win tonight at Miami would be mighty.  We think that a win at home over Florida State, North Carolina, or Syracuse would give them all the juice they need.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and probably not one to Dayton

 

Creighton

The Big East is top heavy with two superior teams and a half dozen good but not great teams.  At 4-7 in league play, the Blue Jays have a lot of work left to do to get onto the upper half of the Bubble.

The one thing keeping Creighton in the discussion currently is the fact that they have played 12 Quadrant 1 games so far and have a top 15 strength of schedule.  However, they are only 2-10 in those games.

Creighton’s next four games are must-win games.  The Blue Jays have to take care of Xavier tonight in Cincinnati and then beat Seton Hall, DePaul, and Georgetown to improve to 8-7 when they travel to Marquette in March.  A 6-1 finish from here would put CU at 10-8 in the league and 19-12 overall, where an opening round win in the Big East Tournament would give the Blue Jays a strong chance to get in.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if they meet the parameters set above.  As of today, we’d say their invitation would be to host a game in the NIT.

 

Davidson

Bob McKillop is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball.  While Davidson has an exceptional history of greatness thanks to what legendary coach Lefty Driesell did 50 years ago, those were different times.  Driesell recruited four or five players as good as Stephen Curry, and he brought Davidson to the top five of the rankings in 1964, 1965, 1968, and 1969.  McKillop inherited a mess when he took over this program that was coming off a 24-loss season plus the transfer of their one good player.  He’s now led the Wildcats for 30 seasons!

Of course, none of this means anything to the Selection Committee.  Davidson’s resume is iffy at this point, and without an automatic bid, it looks like a slim possibility.  Their only quality win to date is a home game victory over conference co-contender Virginia Commonwealth.  This is their only win against a top 100 team, and it came at home.  Unless they face VCU in the Conference Tournament, they will face just one other top 100 team the rest of the way.  The stars just don’t align for the Wildcats this year.

Verdict: They better win the automatic bid or plan on playing in the NIT, CBI, or CIT

 

Florida

Coach Michael White is underachieving in Gainesville, and, following in the footsteps of Billy Donovan, could find his seat heating up quickly if the Gators miss out on this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Florida’s schedule is the only reason why at 4-6 in the SEC and 12-11 overall that they are still in consideration as an at-large team.  The Gators are looking at 8-10 in the league and 16-15 overall.  With that record, they will have to win at least three SEC Tournament games to even be in the final discussion.

Verdict: One of the biggest disappointments of the season does not receive an NCAA bid and may not receive an NIT bid either

 

Hofstra

Make no bones about it, Hofstra is not a real at-large candidate.  However, we wanted to list the Pride here to show you their resume.  At 21-4, the Pride has no Q1 or Q2 wins.  They are 16-0 against Q4, and their strength of schedule ranks 225.  We wanted to show them to you so you can compare them with the other Mid-major teams on this list.  We could have also shown you UC-Irvine, a team in a similar boat with Hofstra, while Wofford, UNC Greensboro, Belmont, and Lipscomb have some tiny at-large hopes.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if it is automatic

 

Indiana

This was supposed to be a much better year in Hoosierland, and like his brother Sean, Archie Miller has come under fire.  IU was supposed to contend with the Michigan schools and Purdue for the Big Ten title.  Instead, the Hoosiers find themselves mired in a tenth place tie in the Big Ten at 4-9/13-11.

Indiana has the bare minimum criteria to squeak in as a fortunate bubble team.  Their NET rating is just under 50, and most power league teams in the top 50 get into the field.  Their strength of schedule is 37, and this is okay for any major conference team on the bubble.  Their efficiency rating is also okay at 45, not great but adequate enough for a Big Ten team.

With 12 Quadrant 1 games and wins in four of those contests, the Hoosiers have proven they can compete at the top of the game.  Of their seven remaining games, five are against tough opponents, and Indiana needs to win two of those five games and four overall to enter the Big Ten Tournament not needing to win three games to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid.

Verdict: At the present time, we have them as the #68 team in the field, and they would be slotted to go to Dayton, where they might have to play Butler. What a rivalry game played close enough for the fans to make the commute by car!

 

Lipscomb

The Atlantic Sun Conference is mid-major at best and borders on low-major status, but Florida Gulf Coast proved this league has the ability to send teams to the Sweet 16.

Lipscomb made its first NCAA Tournament appearance last year and scared North Carolina for a half.  This Bisons team is better than last year, and the former NAIA superpower might be talented enough to replicate what FGCU did earlier in the decade.

Lipscomb has played five Q1 games, all on the road and won twice, once against TCU.  They have no bad losses, going 14-0 against Q3 & Q4.  Among their losses is a four-pointer at Louisville.

If Lipscomb beats Liberty tonight in Nashville to complete the season sweep, they will almost assuredly win out to finish 16-0/25-4 before hosting all their conference tournament games.  It would take a lot to not be the automatic qualifier, but in the event they lost to Liberty in the finals, they would be 27-5 with a lot of positives on their resume.

Verdict: The Bisons are a very likely automatic qualifier, but if they were 27-5, it would take a lot of statistics-bending to exclude them from the at-large pool.  However, we have faith that the Selection Committee would find ways to ship Lipscomb to the NIT in favor of the ninth place team in the ACC or 10th place team in the Big Ten or even the fifth best Big East team, or even TCU who lost at home to this Lipscomb team.

 

Minnesota

Richard Pitino, Saul Phillips, Murray Bartow, and Bryce Drew know what it is like to have fathers that enjoyed long, successful careers in college basketball.  They also know what it is like to have their team’s fanatics wishing that those great coaches had created daughters rather than sons.  Pitino is on very thin ice in Minneapolis, and the Gophers must make the Big Dance if Pitino is to stay employed in the Cities in 2020.

The Gophers are in 8th place in the Big Ten with a 16-8 record overall.  This is just enough to meet the minimum for a Big Ten team.  Their NET rating is 59, which is right on the line for average lowest rating that gets in.  Three Quad 1 wins and a 5-6 record away from home gives the Gophers a decent shot at making the field.

Minnesota’s closing schedule could cinch their bid or kill their chances.  Their more winnable games are on the road, and the tougher opponents must come to Minneapolis.  Tonight’s game at Nebraska could be a bell-weather contest.  A loss might open the door for another bubble team to step up and pass the Gophers.

Verdict: For now, we believe the Selection Committee would send the Gophers an Invitation and even allow them to avoid the First Four.  However, a 3-4 finish to give UM a 9-11 mark in the league and 19-12 overall might put Minny on the wrong side of the Bubble if they lost their first Big Ten Tournament game.  Pitino loses his job if UM misses the Dance.

 

New Mexico St.

New Mexico State is not getting an at-large bid, even if the Aggies win out until the WAC Championship Game and then lose to Grand Canyon or Cal St. Bakersfield by one point in overtime.

Let’s look at their resume.  They lost at Kansas by three points, and that was their only Q1 game.  Even had they beaten Kansas by three, their resume is too thin with just one Q1 game.

NMSU is just one spot behind Minnesota in the NET Ratings, and the Aggies are 9-3 away from Las Cruces.  However, their strength of schedule rates at number 134, and we learned from the top-16 seed reveal last week just how much this year’s Committee valued strength of schedule.

Verdict: No At-large chance, but we believe this team could be 30-4 when they win the WAC’s automatic bid.  Coach Chris Jans has overcome a lot of adversity to resurrect his career.  NMSU will be a dangerous 12 or 13 seed.

 

North Carolina St.

Kevin Keatts is one of our favorite basketball coaches.  We are in high regard of his ability to evaluate talent and alter his schemes to best exploit opponent weaknesses and utilize his talent.  Even that embarrassing oops loss to Virginia Tech does not alter our opinion.  Keatts is a Final Four coach of the future, be it here or some place else.

This Wolf Pack team is not going to advance very far in the NCAA Tournament, but they will almost definitely receive a bid based on their results so far.

When an ACC team has a top 40 NET rating, they are going dancing.  NCSU is presently #39.  The Wolf Pack currently has a winning record away from Raleigh.

All is not peachy though with their resume.  Their Strength of Schedule is an unheard of for an ACC team #194, because they played six of the bottom 34 teams in Division 1, including the two weakest of all.  State only has one Q1 win all year, a home victory over Auburn which looks less impressive now than it did then.

The Pack can easily finish the regular season on a 5-2 sprint to a 10-8 regular season conference record, which gets an ACC team an at-large bid better than 95% of the time.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation as one of the last teams in that do not play in the First Four

 

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes really should not be in this discussion.  The only reason why we include them here is that they still need to avoid a total collapse.  At 6-6/16-7, if OSU goes 3-5 down the stretch, they will get into the field.

Road wins over Cincinnati, Indiana, and Creighton are impressive enough already, but we see the Buckeyes finishing no worse than 4-4 and possibly 5-3 to make their selection quite easy.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Oklahoma

Can a team that is 3-9 in their conference really be in the hunt for an at-large bid?  Oklahoma certainly hopes so, and thanks to the Big 12’s overall concentration of power, the Sooners do have a legitimate chance to get into the Field of 68 with a conference mark no better than 7-11.

In OU’s favor is a schedule that faced no Q4 teams and just seven Q3 teams.  Oklahoma went 7-0 in those games.  Their overall strength of schedule is #7, which means that a winning overall record is going to be enough to give them a chance.

Oklahoma has six games remaining prior to the league tourney, and if they go 3-3 with one of those wins coming against Kansas, and then they win their first Big 12 Tournament game, the Sooners will be in good enough shape to expect great things on March 17.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they go 3-3 plus one Big 12 Tournament win

 

Ole Miss

Ole Miss is 16-7, and all seven of their losses came to Q1 teams!  They have three Q1 wins, including one on the road against Mississippi State.

A 35 NET rating and 39 Efficiency rating makes their resume complete.  At this point, Ole Miss is competing for a 7 or 8 seed and not needing to worry about missing out on the Dance, unless they totally collapse.  Coach Kermit Davis has done an incredible job in his first year in Oxford.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels have received an at-large bid in the past, but they also beat Gonzaga in the past.  This year, it appears out of reach, and a 11-5/22-12 final record (the best possible without beating Gonzaga, is most likely to fall short of the minimum needed criteria.

Verdict: SMC is going to have to beat Gonzaga to have any chance, and most likely, that win will have to come in the finals of the WCC Tournament, which would then give the Gaels the automatic bid and Gonzaga an at-large bid at the expense of another team on this list.

 

San Francisco

At one time earlier this year, USF looked like a potential at-large team.  A 13-point loss at home to Gonzaga followed by losses at Saint Mary’s and San Diego, basically necessitated winning at Gonzaga to have a real chance.  The Zags ran the Dons off the floor, ending USF’s at-large possibilities.

Verdict: No bid unless USF pulls off the upset and wins the West Coast Tournament Championship.  We cannot see USF beating Gonzaga, but if the Dons earn the #2 or #3 seed in the conference tournament, while BYU earns the #4 seed, then the Dons could hope that the Cougars upset Gonzaga, giving them a chance to knock off BYU for the automatic bid.

 

Seton Hall

Seton Hall is in a similar boat to Butler and Creighton in the up and down Big East race.  The Pirates have some pluses and some minuses in their quest to get a bid.

On the plus side are wins over Kentucky and Maryland, but countering those two great Q1 victories are losses at home to St. Louis and DePaul.  Three of their Q1 losses were by five points or less, and they have only played seven games against Q3 & Q4 teams.

With a 69 NET Rating, the Pirates need to improve their standing in the last five weeks.  The schedule is quite tough with the top two Big East teams (Villanova and Marquette) still on the schedule, and the Hall has road games with Creighton, St. John’s, and Georgetown.  We expect SHU to enter the Big East Tournament at 7-11/16-14, and the Big East is not strong enough for a team with fewer than 10 conference wins or nine with a couple of conference tournament wins to get in.

Verdict: Looks like they will be disappointed on Selection Sunday without an upset of Marquette or Villanova and a 9-9 Big East record

 

St. John’s

St. John’s is only a half-game in front of Seton Hall, but their resume might as well be 20 games ahead.  The Red Storm have played a much tougher schedule this year, and schedule strength appears to be very important, just behind NET Ratings, with the Committee.  Sweeps of Marquette and Creighton with their worst loss coming against DePaul gives SJU a strong shot at making the field.  Add a 7-4 record away from home, and the Red Storm would have to collapse to miss out this year.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation, probably an 8 or 9 seed

 

TCU

Like Ole Miss, all of TCU’s losses have come to Quadrant 1 teams.  They are 16-0 against all others.  A 33 NET rating and 20 Strength of Schedule Rating puts the Horned Frogs well up into the good graces of the Selection Committee.

TCU should be no worse than 9-9 in the Big 12, and when a league is as strong up and down as this one, the 9-9 team always gets into the field.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Temple

When a top 10 team has just one loss all year, the team that beat them gets added oomph in their resume.  Temple gave Houston their only loss so far this year.  The Owls lost their other five Q1 games to date.

Temple’s NET Rating is 55, which puts them on the Bubble for sure.  Their Strength of Schedule is 56, which is at the bottom of the allowed SOS for an at-large team.  An 8-5 record away from home (7-4 away from the City of Brotherly Love) makes their criteria smack dab in the hunt as one of the final teams in our highest teams out.

Temple can go 5-2 the rest of the regular season to finish at 12-6 in the league.  With a win in the AAC Tournament, that would give the Owls at least 23 wins, and that would leave them exactly where they are now–in the middle of the discussion between teams number 67 and 70.  A win at South Florida this weekend would really help.

 

Texas

The Longhorns have the worst record of teams that appear to be in good shape with the Selection Committee.  At 6-6/14-11, UT still has work to do just to guarantee a plus .500 record.  They have played the third toughest schedule in the nation, and they own wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.

Add a 34 NET Rating and 28 Efficiency Rating, and Texas only needs to get enough wins down the stretch to guarantee an at-large bid.  A 9-9 Big 12 record does the trick.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Toledo

The PiRate Ratings are big fans of the Mid-Major conferences that have been around for decades, and the MAC is one of those leagues.  Toledo was really good back in the late 1960’s when Steve Mix played for the Rockets prior to starting in the NBA.  Success has been limited for Toledo on the hardwoods since then.

This Toledo team has no chance of securing an at-large bid, and with a 30-point loss to Buffalo, it is hard to see them getting revenge in the championship game of the MAC Tournament.  Still, we include them in this write-up, because the MAC Tournament is always competitive, and the top-seeded team loses in it more than the average conference.

Toledo is one of three or four teams that could upset Buffalo, although this year’s Buffalo team has all the tools to sweep the regular season and conference tournament.  However, if Buffalo loses, then obviously another team must win the automatic bid, while Buffalo bursts a Bubble for another team as a certain at-large team.

A 9-3 record away from home makes this a dangerous team in Cleveland.  Toledo will waltz into Cleveland as the number one seed from the West Division, so Buffalo will have to beat two others before the Rockets will have to glare at the Bulls in a possible title game.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only bid winning automatic bid, but Buffalo still gets in if they lose the MAC Tournament

 

UNC Greensboro

This is a team no favorite from a power conference will want to see in a potential Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.  UNCG is a tough matchup, and the Spartans have a unique style that is hard to prepare for on a couple day’s notice.

With a 46 NET Rating, UNCG is worthy of an at-large bid if they were to win out all the way to the Socon Championship Game and lose a close one to Wofford.  The Spartans are 10-2 away from Greensboro, but their issue is a schedule that is rated 188 (which is still ahead of North Carolina State).

If UNCG is to earn enough respect to be in the at-large pool, the Spartans must win their two big games this week.  They play at Furman tonight, and then meet Wofford in Spartanburg Saturday.  If UNCG wins out but loses in the SoCon Championship Game, they will be 30-4 and in the mix for one of the last four bids.

 

Utah St.

With a 38 NET Rating and 43 Efficiency Rating, Utah State should be in the almost safe range for an at-large bid, but the Aggies are still on the outside looking in thanks to a strength of schedule rated 115.  Utah State has seven regular season games left, and if they win out, they will enter the MWC Tournament at 15-3/25-6.  Most importantly, if they win out, it will mean the Aggies beat Nevada.  The boys from Reno come to Logan on March 2.  USU almost has to win that game to have any serious at-large chances, but they also have a chance to win the automatic bid in the tough Mountain West.  Nevada won the MWC last year and failed to make the tournament title game as the number one seed, so history could repeat.

Verdict: We believe the Aggies deserve an at-large bid as of today, and for now we will give the Selection Committee the benefit of the doubt in realizing that they deserve to be in

 

Virginia Commonwealth

At the current time, we actually have VCU as the likely automatic bid winner from the Atlantic 10, ahead of Davidson, but we included the Rams here to show you how close they are to qualifying as an at-large team.

VCU has a 43 NET Rating, 54 Strength of Schedule, and 46 Efficiency Rating.  This is already better than some of the other teams thought to be among the last four in and first four out.  They have a 6-5 record away from home and won at Texas.  They suffered narrow losses to Virginia and St. John’s.

We project VCU to finish 15-3 in the A-10 and 24-7 overall in the regular season.  If they lose in the conference tournament and finish 26-8, the Rams will be in the mix for an at-large bid.

Verdict: We believe VCU has the best chance of winning the A-10 Tournament and the automatic bid, but if they lose in the Championship Game, the Rams still have a chance depending on how many Power Conferences have major upsets or if teams like Buffalo and Nevada lose in their conference tournaments

Wofford

If we told you that an anonymous team was ranked 28 in the NET Ratings with the number 30 Efficiency Rating, and with a 20-point road win at the number four team in the SEC, and with four losses all year to North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma, you might reply that Auburn or Texas Tech will obviously make the NCAA Tournament, guessing from the information given that one of these two teams must be that anonymous team.

Mention Wofford to 99% of the general college basketball fandom public, and you are very likely to hear such fanatic tell you that they will be another one of those first round 25-point losers to some Big Ten team.

Wofford and UNC Greensboro both probably belong in the NCAA Tourmament.  Unfortunately, one of these two are likely to be team number 69, 70, 71, or 72.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they earn the automatic bid

 

Yale

There has never been an at-large Ivy League team, and there isn’t going to be one this year, even if Yale is probably better than a couple of teams seriously on the Bubble.

The Bulldogs’ best win is a neutral court victory over Miami of Florida.  Their resume won’t get them an at-large bid.  We project the Bulldogs to go 12-2 in the Ivy League to earn the top seed in the four-team tournament.  We also project Yale to win the Tournament to finish 24-5, where they will earn no better than a 13 seed and possible a 14 seed.  At 13, there are multiple potential 4 seeds that could be uspet by this Yale team.

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, January 18, 2019

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads For Major Conferences & Ranked Teams

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	-6.2
Notre Dame	North Carolina St.	-2.9
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	8.6
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest	18.1
Georgia Tech	Louisville	-2.6
Duke	Virginia	4.8
South Florida	Houston	-7.0
Wichita St.	Cincinnati	-4.9
Central Florida	Tulsa	9.9
Memphis	SMU	2.1
Temple	Penn	5.4
Connecticut	Tulane	15.7
West Virginia	Kansas	3.5
Kansas St.	TCU	-0.3
Baylor	Texas Tech	-3.5
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	12.5
Texas	Oklahoma	2.0
Butler	St. John’s	3.4
Seton Hall	DePaul	8.0
Wisconsin	Michigan	0.3
Purdue	Indiana	5.9
Minnesota	Penn St.	2.8
Nevada	Air Force	22.3
Washington St.	Stanford	-1.1
USC	UCLA	-0.1
Washington	California	17.2
Arizona	Oregon St.	4.9
Arizona St.	Oregon	1.3
Georgia	Florida	-4.3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	5.8
Tennessee	Alabama	14.1
Texas A&M	Missouri	3.1
Auburn	Kentucky	4.5
LSU	South Carolina	8.6
Vanderbilt	Mississippi St.	-3.6
Gonzaga	Loyola Marymount	21.9

 

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Boston College	Florida St.	-5.7
Marquette	Providence	8.0
Iowa	Illinois	9.7
Utah	Colorado	-0.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk	Team	PiRate
1	Duke	122.9
2	Virginia	121.6
3	Gonzaga	120.6
4	Michigan St.	120.2
5	Tennessee	119.1
6	North Carolina	117.3
7	Michigan	116.8
8	Virginia Tech	116.0
9	Kansas	115.9
10	Auburn	115.7
11	Texas Tech	115.4
12	Nebraska	114.8
13	Kentucky	114.7
14	Purdue	114.5
15	Iowa St.	114.5
16	Nevada	114.5
17	Wisconsin	113.6
18	Buffalo	113.4
19	North Carolina St.	113.0
20	TCU	113.0
21	Villanova	112.8
22	Maryland	112.4
23	Florida St.	112.4
24	Louisville	112.2
25	Ohio St.	112.0
26	Florida	111.9
27	Oklahoma	111.9
28	Mississippi St.	111.9
29	Iowa	111.7
30	Houston	111.7
31	Indiana	111.6
32	Marquette	111.6
33	Cincinnati	111.5
34	Syracuse	111.2
35	LSU	111.1
36	Texas	110.9
37	Saint Mary’s	110.6
38	Butler	110.4
39	Wofford	110.4
40	Mississippi	110.2
41	St. John’s	110.0
42	Clemson	109.8
43	Oregon	109.7
44	Kansas St.	109.7
45	Creighton	109.4
46	Central Florida	109.3
47	Utah St.	109.1
48	Washington	109.0
49	Murray St.	109.0
50	Lipscomb	108.9
51	Baylor	108.9
52	Seton Hall	108.7
53	San Francisco	108.7
54	Arizona	108.7
55	Arizona St.	108.0
56	Alabama	108.0
57	Northwestern	107.9
58	Fresno St.	107.9
59	Virginia Commonwealth	107.6
60	Miami FL	107.6
61	Arkansas	107.4
62	Temple	107.1
63	Liberty	107.1
64	Dayton	107.0
65	New Mexico St.	106.9
66	Penn St.	106.9
67	West Virginia	106.8
68	Oregon St.	106.8
69	Minnesota	106.7
70	Toledo	106.7
71	Pittsburgh	106.6
72	Georgia Tech	106.6
73	Notre Dame	106.6
74	Providence	106.6
75	UCLA	106.5
76	Vermont	106.4
77	East Tennessee St.	106.3
78	South Dakota St.	106.1
79	Xavier	106.0
80	Hofstra	106.0
81	Colorado	105.7
82	Connecticut	105.7
83	Davidson	105.6
84	Ball St.	105.6
85	Georgetown	105.6
86	SMU	105.6
87	Oklahoma St.	105.5
88	Illinois	105.5
89	South Carolina	105.5
90	BYU	105.5
91	Loyola (Chi.)	105.4
92	Vanderbilt	105.3
93	Belmont	105.1
94	Yale	105.1
95	Furman	104.9
96	USC	104.9
97	San Diego	104.8
98	Memphis	104.7
99	Texas A&M	104.7
100	Northeastern	104.7
101	Saint Louis	104.6
102	Georgia	104.6
103	Northern Kentucky	104.6
104	Missouri	104.6
105	Georgia St.	104.6
106	Western Kentucky	104.5
107	Grand Canyon	104.4
108	Old Dominion	104.3
109	UNC Greensboro	104.3
110	Boise St.	104.2
111	Texas St.	104.1
112	Montana	103.9
113	Rhode Island	103.9
114	Boston College	103.7
115	DePaul	103.7
116	Wichita St.	103.6
117	UC Irvine	103.5
118	Georgia Southern	103.5
119	North Texas	103.5
120	George Mason	103.4
121	Rutgers	103.4
122	Austin Peay	103.4
123	Charleston	103.4
124	Jacksonville St.	103.4
125	Penn	103.2
126	Akron	103.2
127	San Diego St.	103.1
128	Harvard	102.9
129	Utah Valley	102.9
130	Drake	102.8
131	Louisiana Tech	102.8
132	UC Santa Barbara	102.5
133	Brown	102.5
134	Tulsa	102.4
135	Stanford	102.3
136	Radford	102.3
137	Marshall	102.2
138	Utah	102.2
139	Northern Illinois	102.1
140	Southern Illinois	101.8
141	South Florida	101.7
142	Rider	101.7
143	Loyola Marymount	101.7
144	Bowling Green	101.6
145	Bucknell	101.5
146	Louisiana Monroe	101.5
147	Wake Forest	101.4
148	Stony Brook	101.2
149	Central Michigan	100.9
150	UNLV	100.8
151	Louisiana	100.8
152	Lehigh	100.8
153	Wright St.	100.8
154	St. Bonaventure	100.6
155	Massachusetts	100.4
156	Winthrop	100.4
157	Southern Miss	100.3
158	Valparaiso	100.3
159	Princeton	100.1
160	Gardner Webb	100.1
161	Kent St.	100.0
162	Weber St.	100.0
163	Purdue Fort Wayne	100.0
164	Duquesne	99.9
165	Samford	99.9
166	Saint Joseph’s	99.8
167	Colgate	99.6
168	Richmond	99.6
169	Eastern Michigan	99.6
170	Evansville	99.5
171	UAB	99.5
172	Abilene Christian	99.4
173	Holy Cross	99.4
174	NJIT	99.3
175	Seattle	99.3
176	New Mexico	99.3
177	Northern Colorado	99.2
178	Pacific	99.2
179	Illinois St.	99.1
180	Coastal Carolina	99.1
181	Ohio	99.0
182	Mercer	99.0
183	Miami OH	98.9
184	Pepperdine	98.7
185	Indiana St.	98.6
186	Omaha	98.6
187	Cal St. Fullerton	98.6
188	Cal St. Bakersfield	98.5
189	Dartmouth	98.5
190	American	98.5
191	Missouri St.	98.5
192	IUPUI	98.5
193	Long Beach St.	98.4
194	North Florida	98.4
195	Texas Southern	98.2
196	Washington St.	98.2
197	Hawaii	98.2
198	Green Bay	97.8
199	Troy	97.8
200	Northern Iowa	97.7
201	Iona	97.7
202	South Dakota	97.7
203	Hartford	97.6
204	Western Michigan	97.5
205	Colorado St.	97.5
206	UTSA	97.4
207	William & Mary	97.4
208	Florida Int’l.	97.3
209	Appalachian St.	97.2
210	Presbyterian	97.1
211	North Dakota St.	97.1
212	Boston University	97.1
213	Santa Clara	97.0
214	Campbell	97.0
215	High Point	97.0
216	Fordham	97.0
217	Little Rock	96.8
218	Sam Houston St.	96.8
219	Detroit	96.8
220	Illinois Chicago	96.7
221	Delaware	96.7
222	Florida Atlantic	96.7
223	Bradley	96.7
224	The Citadel	96.5
225	Oakland	96.5
226	Wagner	96.5
227	Columbia	96.4
228	Eastern Kentucky	96.3
229	Hampton	96.2
230	Maryland Baltimore Co.	96.1
231	South Alabama	96.1
232	UNC Wilmington	96.1
233	La Salle	95.9
234	California Baptist	95.9
235	East Carolina	95.9
236	UT Arlington	95.8
237	Lamar	95.8
238	Fairleigh Dickinson	95.8
239	Charleston Southern	95.7
240	UMass Lowell	95.7
241	Missouri Kansas City	95.6
242	Army	95.5
243	Canisius	95.5
244	Stephen F. Austin	95.4
245	Cornell	95.3
246	St. Francis PA	95.3
247	Sacred Heart	95.3
248	Fairfield	95.3
249	Quinnipiac	95.3
250	UC Davis	95.3
251	Air Force	95.2
252	Morehead St.	95.1
253	Idaho St.	95.1
254	James Madison	95.1
255	Long Island	95.1
256	UT Rio Grande Valley	95.0
257	Marist	95.0
258	George Washington	94.9
259	Drexel	94.9
260	California	94.8
261	North Dakota	94.8
262	Robert Morris	94.7
263	UTEP	94.5
264	Siena	94.4
265	Houston Baptist	94.3
266	Arkansas St.	94.3
267	Chattanooga	94.2
268	Longwood	94.2
269	Norfolk St.	94.2
270	Montana St.	94.2
271	Sacramento St.	94.1
272	St. Francis (Bkln)	94.1
273	Florida Gulf Coast	94.0
274	Jacksonville	94.0
275	Monmouth	94.0
276	Central Arkansas	94.0
277	New Orleans	93.9
278	North Carolina Central	93.8
279	Towson	93.8
280	Eastern Washington	93.8
281	Central Connecticut	93.7
282	Milwaukee	93.6
283	Prairie View A&M	93.6
284	Southern Utah	93.6
285	Portland St.	93.5
286	Tulane	93.5
287	Middle Tennessee	93.4
288	UC Riverside	93.2
289	Cleveland St.	93.1
290	Nicholls St.	93.0
291	Saint Peter’s	93.0
292	North Carolina A&T	93.0
293	Rice	92.9
294	Texas A&M-CC	92.9
295	Grambling St.	92.8
296	Charlotte	92.8
297	Oral Roberts	92.8
298	Youngstown St.	92.8
299	Niagara	92.7
300	Albany	92.7
301	Navy	92.6
302	Tennessee St.	92.6
303	Western Carolina	92.6
304	Western Illinois	92.6
305	Eastern Illinois	92.5
306	Loyola (MD)	92.5
307	Southeast Missouri St.	92.4
308	Lafayette	92.3
309	Wyoming	92.2
310	McNeese St.	92.2
311	Denver	92.1
312	Bethune Cookman	92.0
313	Northern Arizona	91.9
314	Cal St. Northridge	91.8
315	Howard	91.5
316	Southeastern Louisiana	91.4
317	UT Martin	91.1
318	Cal Poly	91.0
319	Portland	90.9
320	USC Upstate	90.8
321	Alabama St.	90.7
322	VMI	90.6
323	Idaho	90.3
324	North Alabama	90.2
325	Binghamton	90.1
326	Maine	90.1
327	Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.0
328	Morgan St.	89.9
329	Elon	89.8
330	Manhattan	89.7
331	Florida A&M	89.2
332	South Carolina St.	89.2
333	Jackson St.	89.2
334	Mount St. Mary’s	89.0
335	Bryant	88.9
336	Tennessee Tech	88.9
337	SIU Edwardsville	88.8
338	San Jose St.	88.3
339	New Hampshire	88.1
340	Southern	88.0
341	Northwestern St.	86.8
342	Stetson	86.7
343	Incarnate Word	86.0
344	Kennesaw St.	85.4
345	Alabama A&M	85.0
346	Alcorn St.	84.4
347	Coppin St.	84.4
348	Mississippi Valley St.	83.9
349	Savannah St.	83.8
350	UNC Asheville	83.7
351	Chicago St.	82.1
352	Maryland Eastern Shore	81.9
353	Delaware St.	80.9

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

America East
Vermont	106.4
Stony Brook	101.2
Hartford	97.6
Maryland Baltimore Co.	96.1
UMass Lowell	95.7
Albany	92.7
Binghamton	90.1
Maine	90.1
New Hampshire	88.1
American Athletic
Houston	111.7
Cincinnati	111.5
Central Florida	109.3
Temple	107.1
Connecticut	105.7
SMU	105.6
Memphis	104.7
Wichita St.	103.6
Tulsa	102.4
South Florida	101.7
East Carolina	95.9
Tulane	93.5
Atlantic 10
Virginia Commonwealth	107.6
Dayton	107.0
Davidson	105.6
Saint Louis	104.6
Rhode Island	103.9
George Mason	103.4
St. Bonaventure	100.6
Massachusetts	100.4
Duquesne	99.9
Saint Joseph’s	99.8
Richmond	99.6
Fordham	97.0
La Salle	95.9
George Washington	94.9
Atlantic Coast
Duke	122.9
Virginia	121.6
North Carolina	117.3
Virginia Tech	116.0
North Carolina St.	113.0
Florida St.	112.4
Louisville	112.2
Syracuse	111.2
Clemson	109.8
Miami FL	107.6
Pittsburgh	106.6
Georgia Tech	106.6
Notre Dame	106.6
Boston College	103.7
Wake Forest	101.4
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb	108.9
Liberty	107.1
NJIT	99.3
North Florida	98.4
Florida Gulf Coast	94.0
Jacksonville	94.0
North Alabama	90.2
Stetson	86.7
Kennesaw St.	85.4
Big 12
Kansas	115.9
Texas Tech	115.4
Iowa St.	114.5
TCU	113.0
Oklahoma	111.9
Texas	110.9
Kansas St.	109.7
Baylor	108.9
West Virginia	106.8
Oklahoma St.	105.5
Big East
Villanova	112.8
Marquette	111.6
Butler	110.4
St. John’s	110.0
Creighton	109.4
Seton Hall	108.7
Providence	106.6
Xavier	106.0
Georgetown	105.6
DePaul	103.7
Big Sky
Montana	103.9
Weber St.	100.0
Northern Colorado	99.2
Idaho St.	95.1
Montana St.	94.2
Sacramento St.	94.1
Eastern Washington	93.8
Southern Utah	93.6
Portland St.	93.5
Northern Arizona	91.9
Idaho	90.3
Big South
Radford	102.3
Winthrop	100.4
Gardner Webb	100.1
Presbyterian	97.1
Campbell	97.0
High Point	97.0
Hampton	96.2
Charleston Southern	95.7
Longwood	94.2
USC Upstate	90.8
UNC Asheville	83.7
Big Ten
Michigan St.	120.2
Michigan	116.8
Nebraska	114.8
Purdue	114.5
Wisconsin	113.6
Maryland	112.4
Ohio St.	112.0
Iowa	111.7
Indiana	111.6
Northwestern	107.9
Penn St.	106.9
Minnesota	106.7
Illinois	105.5
Rutgers	103.4
Big West
UC Irvine	103.5
UC Santa Barbara	102.5
Cal St. Fullerton	98.6
Long Beach St.	98.4
Hawaii	98.2
UC Davis	95.3
UC Riverside	93.2
Cal St. Northridge	91.8
Cal Poly	91.0
Colonial Athletic
Hofstra	106.0
Northeastern	104.7
Charleston	103.4
William & Mary	97.4
Delaware	96.7
UNC Wilmington	96.1
James Madison	95.1
Drexel	94.9
Towson	93.8
Elon	89.8
Conference USA
Western Kentucky	104.5
Old Dominion	104.3
North Texas	103.5
Louisiana Tech	102.8
Marshall	102.2
Southern Miss	100.3
UAB	99.5
UTSA	97.4
Florida Int’l.	97.3
Florida Atlantic	96.7
UTEP	94.5
Middle Tennessee	93.4
Rice	92.9
Charlotte	92.8
Horizon
Northern Kentucky	104.6
Wright St.	100.8
IUPUI	98.5
Green Bay	97.8
Detroit	96.8
Illinois Chicago	96.7
Oakland	96.5
Milwaukee	93.6
Cleveland St.	93.1
Youngstown St.	92.8
Ivy
Yale	105.1
Penn	103.2
Harvard	102.9
Brown	102.5
Princeton	100.1
Dartmouth	98.5
Columbia	96.4
Cornell	95.3
Metro Atlantic
Rider	101.7
Iona	97.7
Canisius	95.5
Fairfield	95.3
Quinnipiac	95.3
Marist	95.0
Siena	94.4
Monmouth	94.0
Saint Peter’s	93.0
Niagara	92.7
Manhattan	89.7
Mid-American
Buffalo	113.4
Toledo	106.7
Ball St.	105.6
Akron	103.2
Northern Illinois	102.1
Bowling Green	101.6
Central Michigan	100.9
Kent St.	100.0
Eastern Michigan	99.6
Ohio	99.0
Miami OH	98.9
Western Michigan	97.5
Mideastern Athletic
Norfolk St.	94.2
North Carolina Central	93.8
North Carolina A&T	93.0
Bethune Cookman	92.0
Howard	91.5
Morgan St.	89.9
Florida A&M	89.2
South Carolina St.	89.2
Coppin St.	84.4
Savannah St.	83.8
Maryland Eastern Shore	81.9
Delaware St.	80.9
Missouri Valley
Loyola (Chi.)	105.4
Drake	102.8
Southern Illinois	101.8
Valparaiso	100.3
Evansville	99.5
Illinois St.	99.1
Indiana St.	98.6
Missouri St.	98.5
Northern Iowa	97.7
Bradley	96.7
Mountain West
Nevada	114.5
Utah St.	109.1
Fresno St.	107.9
Boise St.	104.2
San Diego St.	103.1
UNLV	100.8
New Mexico	99.3
Colorado St.	97.5
Air Force	95.2
Wyoming	92.2
San Jose St.	88.3
Northeast
Wagner	96.5
Fairleigh Dickinson	95.8
St. Francis PA	95.3
Sacred Heart	95.3
Long Island	95.1
Robert Morris	94.7
St. Francis (Bkln)	94.1
Central Connecticut	93.7
Mount St. Mary’s	89.0
Bryant	88.9
Ohio Valley
Murray St.	109.0
Belmont	105.1
Austin Peay	103.4
Jacksonville St.	103.4
Eastern Kentucky	96.3
Morehead St.	95.1
Tennessee St.	92.6
Eastern Illinois	92.5
Southeast Missouri St.	92.4
UT Martin	91.1
Tennessee Tech	88.9
SIU Edwardsville	88.8
Pac-12
Oregon	109.7
Washington	109.0
Arizona	108.7
Arizona St.	108.0
Oregon St.	106.8
UCLA	106.5
Colorado	105.7
USC	104.9
Stanford	102.3
Utah	102.2
Washington St.	98.2
California	94.8
Patriot
Bucknell	101.5
Lehigh	100.8
Colgate	99.6
Holy Cross	99.4
American	98.5
Boston University	97.1
Army	95.5
Navy	92.6
Loyola (MD)	92.5
Lafayette	92.3
Southeastern
Tennessee	119.1
Auburn	115.7
Kentucky	114.7
Florida	111.9
Mississippi St.	111.9
LSU	111.1
Mississippi	110.2
Alabama	108.0
Arkansas	107.4
South Carolina	105.5
Vanderbilt	105.3
Texas A&M	104.7
Georgia	104.6
Missouri	104.6
Southern
Wofford	110.4
East Tennessee St.	106.3
Furman	104.9
UNC Greensboro	104.3
Samford	99.9
Mercer	99.0
The Citadel	96.5
Chattanooga	94.2
Western Carolina	92.6
VMI	90.6
Southland
Abilene Christian	99.4
Sam Houston St.	96.8
Lamar	95.8
Stephen F. Austin	95.4
Houston Baptist	94.3
Central Arkansas	94.0
New Orleans	93.9
Nicholls St.	93.0
Texas A&M-CC	92.9
McNeese St.	92.2
Southeastern Louisiana	91.4
Northwestern St.	86.8
Incarnate Word	86.0
Southwestern Athletic
Texas Southern	98.2
Prairie View A&M	93.6
Grambling St.	92.8
Alabama St.	90.7
Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.0
Jackson St.	89.2
Southern	88.0
Alabama A&M	85.0
Alcorn St.	84.4
Mississippi Valley St.	83.9
Summit
South Dakota St.	106.1
Purdue Fort Wayne	100.0
Omaha	98.6
South Dakota	97.7
North Dakota St.	97.1
North Dakota	94.8
Oral Roberts	92.8
Western Illinois	92.6
Denver	92.1
Sun Belt
Georgia St.	104.6
Texas St.	104.1
Georgia Southern	103.5
Louisiana Monroe	101.5
Louisiana	100.8
Coastal Carolina	99.1
Troy	97.8
Appalachian St.	97.2
Little Rock	96.8
South Alabama	96.1
UT Arlington	95.8
Arkansas St.	94.3
West Coast
Gonzaga	120.6
Saint Mary’s	110.6
San Francisco	108.7
BYU	105.5
San Diego	104.8
Loyola Marymount	101.7
Pacific	99.2
Pepperdine	98.7
Santa Clara	97.0
Portland	90.9
Western Athletic
New Mexico St.	106.9
Grand Canyon	104.4
Utah Valley	102.9
Seattle	99.3
Cal St. Bakersfield	98.5
California Baptist	95.9
Missouri Kansas City	95.6
UT Rio Grande Valley	95.0
Chicago St.	82.1

 

PiRate Ratings Alphabetical

Rk	Team	PiRate
172	Abilene Christian	99.4
251	Air Force	95.2
126	Akron	103.2
56	Alabama	108.0
345	Alabama A&M	85.0
321	Alabama St.	90.7
300	Albany	92.7
346	Alcorn St.	84.4
190	American	98.5
209	Appalachian St.	97.2
54	Arizona	108.7
55	Arizona St.	108.0
61	Arkansas	107.4
327	Arkansas Pine Bluff	90.0
266	Arkansas St.	94.3
242	Army	95.5
10	Auburn	115.7
122	Austin Peay	103.4
84	Ball St.	105.6
51	Baylor	108.9
93	Belmont	105.1
312	Bethune Cookman	92.0
325	Binghamton	90.1
110	Boise St.	104.2
114	Boston College	103.7
212	Boston University	97.1
144	Bowling Green	101.6
223	Bradley	96.7
133	Brown	102.5
335	Bryant	88.9
145	Bucknell	101.5
18	Buffalo	113.4
38	Butler	110.4
90	BYU	105.5
318	Cal Poly	91.0
188	Cal St. Bakersfield	98.5
187	Cal St. Fullerton	98.6
314	Cal St. Northridge	91.8
260	California	94.8
234	California Baptist	95.9
214	Campbell	97.0
243	Canisius	95.5
276	Central Arkansas	94.0
281	Central Connecticut	93.7
46	Central Florida	109.3
149	Central Michigan	100.9
123	Charleston	103.4
239	Charleston Southern	95.7
296	Charlotte	92.8
267	Chattanooga	94.2
351	Chicago St.	82.1
33	Cincinnati	111.5
42	Clemson	109.8
289	Cleveland St.	93.1
180	Coastal Carolina	99.1
167	Colgate	99.6
81	Colorado	105.7
205	Colorado St.	97.5
227	Columbia	96.4
82	Connecticut	105.7
347	Coppin St.	84.4
245	Cornell	95.3
45	Creighton	109.4
189	Dartmouth	98.5
83	Davidson	105.6
64	Dayton	107.0
221	Delaware	96.7
353	Delaware St.	80.9
311	Denver	92.1
115	DePaul	103.7
219	Detroit	96.8
130	Drake	102.8
259	Drexel	94.9
1	Duke	122.9
164	Duquesne	99.9
235	East Carolina	95.9
77	East Tennessee St.	106.3
305	Eastern Illinois	92.5
228	Eastern Kentucky	96.3
169	Eastern Michigan	99.6
280	Eastern Washington	93.8
329	Elon	89.8
170	Evansville	99.5
248	Fairfield	95.3
238	Fairleigh Dickinson	95.8
26	Florida	111.9
331	Florida A&M	89.2
222	Florida Atlantic	96.7
273	Florida Gulf Coast	94.0
208	Florida Int’l.	97.3
23	Florida St.	112.4
216	Fordham	97.0
58	Fresno St.	107.9
95	Furman	104.9
160	Gardner Webb	100.1
120	George Mason	103.4
258	George Washington	94.9
85	Georgetown	105.6
102	Georgia	104.6
118	Georgia Southern	103.5
105	Georgia St.	104.6
72	Georgia Tech	106.6
3	Gonzaga	120.6
295	Grambling St.	92.8
107	Grand Canyon	104.4
198	Green Bay	97.8
229	Hampton	96.2
203	Hartford	97.6
128	Harvard	102.9
197	Hawaii	98.2
215	High Point	97.0
80	Hofstra	106.0
173	Holy Cross	99.4
30	Houston	111.7
265	Houston Baptist	94.3
315	Howard	91.5
323	Idaho	90.3
253	Idaho St.	95.1
88	Illinois	105.5
220	Illinois Chicago	96.7
179	Illinois St.	99.1
343	Incarnate Word	86.0
31	Indiana	111.6
185	Indiana St.	98.6
201	Iona	97.7
29	Iowa	111.7
15	Iowa St.	114.5
192	IUPUI	98.5
333	Jackson St.	89.2
274	Jacksonville	94.0
124	Jacksonville St.	103.4
254	James Madison	95.1
9	Kansas	115.9
44	Kansas St.	109.7
344	Kennesaw St.	85.4
161	Kent St.	100.0
13	Kentucky	114.7
233	La Salle	95.9
308	Lafayette	92.3
237	Lamar	95.8
152	Lehigh	100.8
63	Liberty	107.1
50	Lipscomb	108.9
217	Little Rock	96.8
193	Long Beach St.	98.4
255	Long Island	95.1
268	Longwood	94.2
151	Louisiana	100.8
146	Louisiana Monroe	101.5
131	Louisiana Tech	102.8
24	Louisville	112.2
91	Loyola (Chi.)	105.4
306	Loyola (MD)	92.5
143	Loyola Marymount	101.7
35	LSU	111.1
326	Maine	90.1
330	Manhattan	89.7
257	Marist	95.0
32	Marquette	111.6
137	Marshall	102.2
22	Maryland	112.4
230	Maryland Baltimore Co.	96.1
352	Maryland Eastern Shore	81.9
155	Massachusetts	100.4
310	McNeese St.	92.2
98	Memphis	104.7
182	Mercer	99.0
60	Miami FL	107.6
183	Miami OH	98.9
7	Michigan	116.8
4	Michigan St.	120.2
287	Middle Tennessee	93.4
282	Milwaukee	93.6
69	Minnesota	106.7
40	Mississippi	110.2
28	Mississippi St.	111.9
348	Mississippi Valley St.	83.9
104	Missouri	104.6
241	Missouri Kansas City	95.6
191	Missouri St.	98.5
275	Monmouth	94.0
112	Montana	103.9
270	Montana St.	94.2
252	Morehead St.	95.1
328	Morgan St.	89.9
334	Mount St. Mary’s	89.0
49	Murray St.	109.0
301	Navy	92.6
12	Nebraska	114.8
16	Nevada	114.5
339	New Hampshire	88.1
176	New Mexico	99.3
65	New Mexico St.	106.9
277	New Orleans	93.9
299	Niagara	92.7
290	Nicholls St.	93.0
174	NJIT	99.3
269	Norfolk St.	94.2
324	North Alabama	90.2
6	North Carolina	117.3
292	North Carolina A&T	93.0
278	North Carolina Central	93.8
19	North Carolina St.	113.0
261	North Dakota	94.8
211	North Dakota St.	97.1
194	North Florida	98.4
119	North Texas	103.5
100	Northeastern	104.7
313	Northern Arizona	91.9
177	Northern Colorado	99.2
139	Northern Illinois	102.1
200	Northern Iowa	97.7
103	Northern Kentucky	104.6
57	Northwestern	107.9
341	Northwestern St.	86.8
73	Notre Dame	106.6
225	Oakland	96.5
181	Ohio	99.0
25	Ohio St.	112.0
27	Oklahoma	111.9
87	Oklahoma St.	105.5
108	Old Dominion	104.3
186	Omaha	98.6
297	Oral Roberts	92.8
43	Oregon	109.7
68	Oregon St.	106.8
178	Pacific	99.2
125	Penn	103.2
66	Penn St.	106.9
184	Pepperdine	98.7
71	Pittsburgh	106.6
319	Portland	90.9
285	Portland St.	93.5
283	Prairie View A&M	93.6
210	Presbyterian	97.1
159	Princeton	100.1
74	Providence	106.6
14	Purdue	114.5
163	Purdue Fort Wayne	100.0
249	Quinnipiac	95.3
136	Radford	102.3
113	Rhode Island	103.9
293	Rice	92.9
168	Richmond	99.6
142	Rider	101.7
262	Robert Morris	94.7
121	Rutgers	103.4
271	Sacramento St.	94.1
247	Sacred Heart	95.3
166	Saint Joseph’s	99.8
101	Saint Louis	104.6
37	Saint Mary’s	110.6
291	Saint Peter’s	93.0
218	Sam Houston St.	96.8
165	Samford	99.9
97	San Diego	104.8
127	San Diego St.	103.1
53	San Francisco	108.7
338	San Jose St.	88.3
213	Santa Clara	97.0
349	Savannah St.	83.8
175	Seattle	99.3
52	Seton Hall	108.7
264	Siena	94.4
337	SIU Edwardsville	88.8
86	SMU	105.6
231	South Alabama	96.1
89	South Carolina	105.5
332	South Carolina St.	89.2
202	South Dakota	97.7
78	South Dakota St.	106.1
141	South Florida	101.7
307	Southeast Missouri St.	92.4
316	Southeastern Louisiana	91.4
340	Southern	88.0
140	Southern Illinois	101.8
157	Southern Miss	100.3
284	Southern Utah	93.6
154	St. Bonaventure	100.6
272	St. Francis (Bkln)	94.1
246	St. Francis PA	95.3
41	St. John’s	110.0
135	Stanford	102.3
244	Stephen F. Austin	95.4
342	Stetson	86.7
148	Stony Brook	101.2
34	Syracuse	111.2
20	TCU	113.0
62	Temple	107.1
5	Tennessee	119.1
302	Tennessee St.	92.6
336	Tennessee Tech	88.9
36	Texas	110.9
99	Texas A&M	104.7
294	Texas A&M-CC	92.9
195	Texas Southern	98.2
111	Texas St.	104.1
11	Texas Tech	115.4
224	The Citadel	96.5
70	Toledo	106.7
279	Towson	93.8
199	Troy	97.8
286	Tulane	93.5
134	Tulsa	102.4
171	UAB	99.5
250	UC Davis	95.3
117	UC Irvine	103.5
288	UC Riverside	93.2
132	UC Santa Barbara	102.5
75	UCLA	106.5
240	UMass Lowell	95.7
350	UNC Asheville	83.7
109	UNC Greensboro	104.3
232	UNC Wilmington	96.1
150	UNLV	100.8
96	USC	104.9
320	USC Upstate	90.8
236	UT Arlington	95.8
317	UT Martin	91.1
256	UT Rio Grande Valley	95.0
138	Utah	102.2
47	Utah St.	109.1
129	Utah Valley	102.9
263	UTEP	94.5
206	UTSA	97.4
158	Valparaiso	100.3
92	Vanderbilt	105.3
76	Vermont	106.4
21	Villanova	112.8
2	Virginia	121.6
59	Virginia Commonwealth	107.6
8	Virginia Tech	116.0
322	VMI	90.6
226	Wagner	96.5
147	Wake Forest	101.4
48	Washington	109.0
196	Washington St.	98.2
162	Weber St.	100.0
67	West Virginia	106.8
303	Western Carolina	92.6
304	Western Illinois	92.6
106	Western Kentucky	104.5
204	Western Michigan	97.5
116	Wichita St.	103.6
207	William & Mary	97.4
156	Winthrop	100.4
17	Wisconsin	113.6
39	Wofford	110.4
153	Wright St.	100.8
309	Wyoming	92.2
79	Xavier	106.0
94	Yale	105.1
298	Youngstown St.	92.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Final 2018-19

Congratulations go to the Clemson Tigers for their outstanding performance last night in their four touchdown victory over Alabama.  With a quarterback that will be back for at least two more seasons, the Tigers must be considered the early favorite to repeat as champions next year and maybe the year after as well.  In the previous decade, the Indianapolis Colts arranged to have their worst ever season at the right time.  The phrase, “Let’s suck for Luck,” was in vogue in the Sycamore State, as the Colts won the rights to the first pick in the NFL Draft.  The new phrase for 2021 might be, “Be Clever and suck for Trevor,” because Trevor Lawrence looks like he could be another all-time NFL great.

Alabama fans know that their team will be back.  When your coach continually recruits the top class or one of the top five year after year, and he employs more coaches by calling them advisers, Alabama, Inc. will continue to return heavy profits.  Of course, Nick Saban will be offered the chance to return to the NFL, but personally we cannot see Saban leaving Alabama off a game like this.  He wants a 15-0 season with 15 double digit wins, and then we can retire and run his Mercedes-Benz Dealership hands-on by recruiting car buyers.

Many of you reading this today might not realize that this was not Alabama’s worst ever showing in a bowl game being played for the National Championship.  There was a worse outcome, and I watched it 47 years ago in the Orange Bowl.

#1 Nebraska, certainly one of the five best college teams ever, thoroughly destroyed #2 Alabama that year 38-6, and the score could have been much worse.  The Cornhuskers scored a touchdown early in the first quarter on a sustained drive, mixing up power runs, option runs, and play-action passes from their wing-I offense and took a quick 7-0 lead.  Alabama’s potent wishbone offense was greatly slowed by Nebraska’s 5-2 defense that closely resembled the All Big 8 Team.

In the last minute of the first quarter, the game was basically decided.  Alabama punted and chose to punt the ball to All-American Johnny Rodgers.  The future Heisman Trophy winner had broken the hearts of Oklahoma with a long punt return that led the Cornhuskers to victory over the Sooners on Thanksgiving Day in the “Game of the Century.”  On this night, Rodgers fielded the punt on the second bounce at his own 23 yard line.  He quickly scampered to his right to avoid two Alabama defenders, and then he faked two more almost out of their shoes before picking up a wall of blockers down the right sideline.  A few seconds later, Nebraska had a two touchdown lead as the first quarter expired.  Two more second quarter touchdowns made it 28-0 at the half, and it was apparent that the number two and number three teams were Big Eight foes Oklahoma and Colorado.  Coach Bob Devaney played his reserves for most of the second half, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 pasting of the 11-0 Crimson Tide.  Coach Bear Bryant called this Nebraska team the greatest of all time, and he admitted that the Cornhuskers basically toyed with his team.

Here are the Final PiRate Ratings for the 2018-19 season

#	Team
1	Clemson
2	Alabama
3	Ohio St.
4	Notre Dame
5	Georgia
6	Oklahoma
7	LSU
8	Michigan
9	Florida
10	Texas A&M
11	Washington
12	Auburn
13	Iowa
14	Washington St.
15	Kentucky
16	Texas
17	Mississippi St.
18	Syracuse
19	Penn St.
20	Stanford
21	Fresno St.
22	Missouri
23	Utah St.
24	West Virginia
25	Utah
26	Central Florida
27	Army
28	Boise St.
29	Northwestern
30	N. Carolina St.
31	Miami
32	S. Carolina
33	Wisconsin
34	Oregon
35	Oklahoma St.
36	Cincinnati
37	Duke
38	Michigan St.
39	Iowa State
40	Virginia
41	Boston College
42	Georgia Tech
43	Pittsburgh
44	T C U
45	Arizona St.
46	Ohio U
47	Appalachian St.
48	Minnesota
49	U A B
50	Wake Forest
51	Purdue
52	California
53	Baylor
54	Texas Tech
55	U S C
56	Vanderbilt
57	Troy
58	BYU
59	Temple
60	Nebraska
61	Kansas St.
62	Florida St.
63	Marshall
64	Ole Miss
65	Indiana
66	Maryland
67	Memphis
68	Virginia Tech
69	Tennessee
70	Buffalo
71	Arizona
72	Georgia Southern
73	Houston
74	Toledo
75	Northern Illinois
76	Nevada
77	Florida Int’l.
78	Tulane
79	Wyoming
80	U C L A
81	N. Texas
82	Colorado
83	Middle Tennessee
84	Miami (O)
85	San Diego St.
86	Eastern Michigan
87	Louisiana Tech
88	Arkansas St.
89	Air Force
90	Florida Atlantic
91	South Florida
92	SMU
93	Western Michigan
94	N. Carolina
95	Kansas
96	Arkansas
97	Navy
98	Southern Miss.
99	Rutgers
100	Illinois
101	UL-Monroe
102	Akron
103	Tulsa
104	Hawaii
105	W. Kentucky
106	Louisiana
107	Colorado St.
108	U N L V
109	Oregon St.
110	Louisville
111	Charlotte
112	New Mexico
113	East Carolina
114	Massachusetts
115	Bowling Green
116	Old Dominion
117	Liberty
118	San Jose St.
119	Ball St.
120	Central Michigan
121	Kent St.
122	Coastal Carolina
123	Georgia St.
124	U T S A
125	South Alabama
126	Texas State
127	N. Mexico St.
128	Rice
129	Connecticut
130	UTEP

Coming Later Today–The PiRate Ratings for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.  

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 21-26, 2018

Oh woe to us!  After so many really nice winning weeks by our Land Sharps, they took a beating last week.  One went into the red in his account, while the other four all slipped dangerously close to joining in the red ink ledgers.

Our own PiRate Ratings have had almost a -1 correlation with the Land Sharps this year.  While the Sharps were losing, our own picks had their second best results of the season, finishing 9-3 against the spread including winning that incredible 15-game parlay.  We promise 5 Dimes not to give them any further heart attacks this year, so we will not issue any more of them.

This is rivalry week, and it is historically one of the hardest weeks for investors to show a profit by late Monday night.  However, we tend to focus on other implications besides rivalry bragging rights.  There are other, even more important factors to consider this week.  If a team is 5-6, or if a team’s coach has been told to get a cardboard box and clean out his office after Saturday, the players on that team are going to play their A-games.  A 2-9 team may play like they are 7-4, and a 4-7 team may play like they are 9-2.  On the other hand, there might be teams that saw their chance for glory go by the wayside in the last couple of weeks.  Teams that were 4-5 and are now 4-7 have little to play for.  They know this is their last game of the year, and they can look forward to spending Christmas at home.  Their mind is on Grandma’s pie and Mom’s prized winning ham.  Then, there are the teams that have suffered through dissension in the last half of the schedule.  Many of their players have basically quit on their coach, because they hope he isn’t back the next season.  There are a lot of factors to consider when playing Week 13 games.

Our Land Sharps threw caution to the wind this week.  We expected one or more to play the minimum three games trying to stall out the season and guarantee a winning record.  But, like Ted Williams in 1941, they are not going to sit out the final.  They are going to play both games of the double header.  Let’s hope they all can raise their batting average up to .407 by the end of the weekend.

1.) Cal Gal Tiffany  Season: 36-26-0  Return on Investment: 11.9%

Memphis -7 vs. Houston

Washington St.  -2 1/2 vs. Washington

Pittsburgh +4 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

South Carolina +26 1/2 vs. Clemson

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

2.) Stewed Meat  Season 35-27-1  Return on Investment: 8.4%

Ole Miss +12 vs. Mississippi St.

Coastal Carolina Pk. vs. South Alabama

Florida Int’l. +3 vs. Marshall

Troy +11 vs. Appalachian St.

SMU -2 1/2 vs. Tulsa

Colorado +12 1/2 vs. California

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

3.) Dean615  Season: 27-22-2  Return on Investment: 5.5%

Notre Dame -10 1/2 vs. USC

Houston +7 1/2 vs. Memphis

Michigan – 4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

Middle Tennessee +3 vs. UAB

Maryland +13 1/2 vs. Penn St.

Minnesota + 10 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

Tennessee +3 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle  Season: 28-23-1  Return on Investment: 5.2%

Virginia -4 vs. Virginia Tech

Indiana +4 vs. Purdue

Wake Forest +12 vs. Duke

Wyoming -6 1/2 vs. New Mexico

Kansas St. +13 1/2 vs. Iowa St.

Ohio St. +4 1/2 vs. Michigan

Washington St. -2 1/2 vs. Washington

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 30-28-1  Return on Investment: -1.4%

Buffalo – 14 1/2 vs. Bowling Green

Florida -6 vs. Florida St.

Michigan -4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

North Carolina St. -7 vs. North Carolina

Central Florida -14 vs. South Florida

Stanford -6 1/2 vs. UCLA

UAB -2 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Notre Dame – 10 1/2 vs. USC

Nevada -13 vs. UNLV

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE
10-Point Teasers	3-Game Parlays	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Air Force	Colorado St.	24.5	Colorado St.
Texas	Kansas	5	Texas
Navy	Tulane	3	Tulane
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Marshall	Florida Int’l.	13	Florida Int’l.
Rice	Old Dominion	2.5	Old Dominion
Central Florida	South Florida	4	Central Florida
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
New Mexico	Wyoming	3	Wyoming
Arizona St.	Arizona	12	Arizona
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	14.5	Pittsburgh
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulsa	SMU	7.5	SMU
California	Colorado	2.5	California
Notre Dame	USC	0.5	Notre Dame
13-point Teasers	4 Game Parlays	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Middle Tennessee	UAB	10.5	UAB
Duke	Wake Forest	25	Wake Forest
West Virginia	Oklahoma	10.5	Oklahoma
Washington	Washington St.	10.5	Washington St.
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Missouri	Arkansas	10	Missouri
Michigan	Ohio St.	17.5	Ohio St.
LSU	Texas A&M	10	Texas A&M
Utah St.	Boise St.	10.5	Boise St.
Money Line Parlay	@ +175
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida Int’l.	Marshall
Texas	Kansas
Money Line Parlay	@ +153
Must Win	Must Lose
SMU	Tulsa
Georgia Southern	Georgia St.
Central Florida	South Florida
Money Line Parlay	@ +222
Must Win	Must Lose
Oklahoma	West Virginia
Wyoming	New Mexico
Tulane	Navy
Money Line Parlay	@ +295
Must Win	Must Lose
Washington St.	Washington
UL-Monroe	Louisiana
Florida	Florida St.
NFL
10-Point Teaser	3-Game Parlay	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	13.5	Detroit
Washington	Dallas	3	Dallas
New Orleans	Atlanta	3	New Orleans
13-Point Teasers	4-Game Parlays	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	19	N.Y. Giants
N.Y. Jets	New England	2.5	New England
Arizona	L.A. Chargers	0.5	L.A. Chargers
Miami	Indianapolis	5.5	Indianapolis
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	31.5	Over
Dallas	Washington	27.5	Over
San Francisco	Tampa Bay	67.5	Under
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	33	Over

Remember This Important Fact: All of the selections you see here are posted for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Pirates or guest Land Sharps actually play their selections for real.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, Stewed never posts the actual picks played in Nevada.  These are Stewed’s runner up picks that are not played.  We strongly encourage you not to wager real money on any selections you see here.

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 14-19, 2018

Call it a rebound week.  After a few weeks of mediocrity, our five Land Sharps went a combined 15-6 last week, and four of the five experts enjoyed highly profitable weeks.

Buckeye Michelle and Stewed Meat were both undefeated in their picks at 3-0 apiece.  Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2, and Dean615 went 2-1.  Friday Dog 13, stuck with a lot of favorites and like so many in “No Fave November,” he finished 2-3.  The week left three of our five Sharps with double digit percentage returns on investment.  The best news is that with two weeks remaining in the regular season, all five of our experts have winning records.  Friends, that is an incredible feat.  To go an entire college football season with a winning record is more rare a feat than beating the S&P 500 returns for a decade.  Few ever do it, so when five out of five here have winning records, it is incredible.

Now, let’s hope this isn’t the kiss of death.  Here are our Land Sharp picks for this week.  All the Land Sharps were on the same page this week; each of the five selected five games each.

1.) Dean 615:  Season 26-18-2 59.1%  Return on Investment 13.5%

Baylor -2 vs. TCU

Nebraska +2.5 vs. Michigan St.

West Virginia -4.5 vs. Oklahoma St.

Purdue -4.5 vs. Wisconsin

Ole Miss +3 vs. Vanderbilt

 

2 tie) Cal Gal Tiffany: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

Tennessee +7 vs. Missouri

UCLA +3.5 vs. USC

Virginia +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +5.5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

California +2.5 vs. Stanford

 

2 tie) Stewed Meat: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

North Texas -3.5 vs. Florida Atlantic

Colgate +11 vs. Army

UL-Monroe +8 vs. Arkansas St.

Wyoming -2 vs. Air Force

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle:  Season 26-20-1  56.5%  Return on Investment  8.5%

Buffalo +2.5 vs. Ohio

Miami (O) +7.5 vs. Northern Illinois

SMU +9 vs. Memphis

Indiana +28.5 vs. Michigan

Iowa St. +3 vs. Texas

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 29-24-1  54.7%  Return on Investment  4.8%

Washington St. -9.5 vs. Arizona

Cincinnati +7.5 vs. Central Florida

Nevada -14.5 vs. San Jose St.

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

Arkansas +21.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

The PiRate Ratings’ Goofy Parlays

We sure hope you heed our weekly warning to never wager real money on our just for fun selections.  We are not professionals at this, and even though one of the Land Sharps is a professional, Stewed never publishes the actual selections played for real, because Stewed is selfish about keeping the line where Stewed wants it to be.  She knows that if all of you reading this played the same selections, the line might move by a half-point.  This was said tongue-in-cheek, but in actuality, we know that a certain few of you reading this in the Caribbean, and in places like Reno, Las Vegas, and Tahoe, that you do look at our actual computer ratings before you make your weekly investment.

Just remember that we have never placed $1 on any of these goofy picks we publish.  It’s just for fun.  We are math nerds and have no relationship with any of the MIT and Cal Tech math geniuses that create advanced algorithmic equations to beat the spread.  Of course, all of those geniuses are looking up at the PiRate Ratings in both college and pro against the spread this season, as we are currently in first place at the Prediction Tracker against the College and the NFL Spread.  A wise man once said that a broken clock is accurate twice a day, and this season is one of those times for us.

Now, here are our goofy plays this week.  Have a good laugh but laugh all the way to the bank when you DON’T wager on these games.

COLLEGE
10-point Teaser	3-team Parlays	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Tulane	Pk	Houston
Memphis	SMU	19	SMU
Boise St.	New Mexico	9.5	Boise St.
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	6	Kentucky
TCU	Baylor	8	Baylor
Wake Forest	Pittsburgh	3	Pittsburgh
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Ohio St.	Maryland	4	Ohio St.
Michigan St.	Nebraska	8	Nebraska
Minnesota	Northwestern	7.5	Northwestern
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Temple	USF	4	Temple
Utah	Colorado	17	Colorado
Notre Dame	Syracuse	20.5	Syracuse
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arkansas St.	UL-Monroe	18	UL-Monroe
Missouri	Tennessee	16	Tennessee
USC	UCLA	13.5	UCLA
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	16	Kansas St.
Florida St.	Boston College	8.5	Boston College
Georgia Tech	Virginia	16.5	Virginia
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Michigan	Indiana	38.5	Indiana
Air Force	Wyoming	7.5	Wyoming
Nevada	San Jose St.	4.5	Nevada
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	13	Ole Miss
Stanford	California	12.5	California
Western Kentucky	UTEP	17	UTEP

 

Special	Parlay	using	5 Dimes
20-point Teaser	15 games	@12-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Memphis	SMU	29	SMU
Alabama	The Citadel	32	Alabama
Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	36	Middle Tenn.
TCU	Baylor	18	Baylor
Michigan St.	Nebraska	22.5	Nebraska
Northwestern	Minnesota	22	Minnesota
Florida	Idaho	20	Florida
Marshall	UTSA	47	UTSA
Florida St.	Boston College	18.5	Boston College
Georgia Tech	Virginia	27	Virginia
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia Tech	25.5	Virginia Tech
Air Force	Wyoming	17.5	Wyoming
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	22.5	Ole Miss
Western Kentucky	UTEP	27	UTEP
Arizona	Washington St.	10.5	Washington St.

 

NFL
10-Point Teasers	3 Team Parlays	@11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Green Bay	Seattle	7.5	Seattle
Tennessee	Indianapolis	8	Indianapolis
Atlanta	Dallas	13.5	Dallas
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tampa Bay	N.Y. Giants	9	N.Y. Giants
Houston	Washington	13	Washington
Jacksonville	Pittsburgh	4	Pittsburgh
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	L.A. Chargers	3	L.A. Chargers
Philadelphia	New Orleans	1	New Orleans
Minnesota	Chicago	7.5	Chicago
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Seattle	Green Bay	59	Under
Atlanta	Dallas	38	Over
N.Y. Giants	Tampa Bay	42	Over

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Syracuse	Louisville	10.5	Syracuse
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	1.5	Texas A&M
Kansas St.	Kansas	22	Kansas

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
West Virginia	TCU	1.5	WVU
Eastern Michigan	Akron	3	EMU
Duke	North Carolina	Pk	Duke

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Arizona St.	UCLA	2.5	Arizona St.
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	9.5	Oklahoma
Purdue	Minnesota	2.5	Purdue

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulane	East Carolina	3.5	Tulane
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	10	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Auburn	24.5	Auburn

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cinciannati	East Carolina	2.5	Cincinnati
Texas Tech	Texas	8.5	Texas
UAB	Southern Miss.	2.5	UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	4	NC St.
Florida	South Carolina	20	S. Car.
BYU	Massachusetts	27	UMass
Troy	Georgia Southern	14.5	Ga. Southern

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tennessee	Kentucky	7	Kentucky
Colorado	Washington St.	7	Washington St.
Louisiana	Georgia St.	1	Louisiana
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	7.5	UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win	Must Lose
Ohio U	Miami (O)
Northern Illinois	Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win	Must Lose
South Carolina	Florida
Kansas	Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Detroit	Chicago	6.5	Chicago
Kansas City	Arizona	3.5	Kansas City
Tennessee	New England	6.5	New England
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	10	Indianapolis

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Oakland	L.A. Chargers	3	L.A. Chargers
Miami	Green Bay	3	Green Bay
Seattle	L.A. Rams	3	L.A. Rams
Dallas	Philadelphia	6.5	Philadelphia

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Detroit	31.5	Over
Cincinnati	New Orleans	41	Over
Cleveland	Atlanta	37.5	Over
Buffalo	N.Y. Jets	24	Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Pardon our brevity today, but we do have other tasks at hands on the PiRate ship.  This is our final election eve analytical look at the 2018 Mid-term Election races.

U.S. Senate

We were tempted to make one slight change today based on the final reliable polling coming from a couple of honest pollsters.  However, in these states, Early Voting has already seen large percentages of voters deciding.  We have to use the polls at the time of Early Voting, so we did not move the needle at all.

For three weeks, we have been split between 53-47 and 54-46 in favor of the Republicans in the Senate.  Our Over/Under spread would be 53 1/2.

U.S. House of Representatives

This could take up hours more than we have to explain, and if you are reading this 14 hours before the polls open on the East Coast, you only have time for a couple of paragraphs.

Based on our models of handicapping the polls based on their recent biases from the previous election, we believe that the Democrats are assured of picking up 13 seats as their floor and 34 seats as their ceiling.  They currently own 193 seats, so this bumps their minimum in the next Congress to 206 and a maximum of 227.  It takes 218 to get a majority.

We believe that there are about 26 seats remaining that are true tossup races.  Of the 26 tossups, the Democrats need to win 12 of the races to gain control.  If you factor in that the Democrats polled a little better three weeks ago when some states commenced with early voting, we tend to tilt the needle of toss-up races in their favor.  If we had to wager on an over/under number for the number of Democrats in the next Congress, we’d place that number at 219.5, since our data shows the Democrats taking control of the House by a margin of 219 to 216 or 220 to 215.

Gubernatorial Races

We must admit that we did not perform any additional data mining on the governor’s races.  We will stick with our over/under number of 26.5 in favor of the Republicans, as our data is split between 26-24 and 27-23 in favor of the GOP.

 

Our plea with our incredible brothers and sisters of the greatest nation in the world.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, please act like a good and decent human being and accept the results without resulting to violence.  Our nation received the most incredible gift from our Founding Fathers.

There is a fantastic quote attributable to Benjamin Franklin in 1787.  When Franklin was leaving Independence Hall following long hours of discussion at the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Franklin as he left the hall whether our new nation would be a Republic or a Monarchy.

Franklin’s genius reply was, “A Republic if you can keep it.”

My fellow friends and countrymen, we are doing our worst not to keep it.  I lived through the 1968 through 1972 election cycle.  I never believed the nation could become more divided then than ever again in my lifetime.  We are approaching this four year black eye.  Let’s stop it before it can surpass those four years.

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

Update To An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

This update to the statistical analysis we gave two weeks ago will be shorter than the previous post given due to time constraints, but we believe it will be a little more accurate now that there are many additional points to plot on our regression boards.

SENATE

Safe Seats

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)

Moved from Safe to Leaning

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D) vs. Karin Housley (R) Smith +4

Smith has the advantage, but her lead has dwindled to the point where a large GOP voting turnout could flip this seat to the Republicans. Housley has proven to be a formidable campaigner and has cut a double-digit lead down to within the margin of error when our formula has been applied.

Toss-up States

Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Martha McSally (R)

Recent news of statements made by Sinema concerning her constituents has cost her almost any chance of winning this race. It is almost a safe seat for the Republicans

Florida
Bill Nelson (D)
Rick Scott (R)

This is probably the closest race in the Senate. Voter turnout on election day will decide the winner. The stats show Nelson with less than two-tenths of a percent lead. Might there be a challenge by whoever loses? In Florida, it’s a good chance.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D)
Mike Braun (R)
Lucy Brenton (L)

This race became a lot more interesting at the end of October, as the Indiana Democratic Party released a mass mailer telling people to vote for Libertarian candidate Brenton, as a ploy to get Braun supporters to vote for Brenton and thus give Donnelly the win. Braun was once a Democrat, and he may lose just enough support to Brenton for Donnelly to win with a plurality but not a majority of the vote.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Mike Espy (D)
Chris McDaniel (R)
Toby Bartee (D)

Hyde-Smith appears to be in excellent shape to finish in first in the open primary, but she should fall short of the needed 50%+1 vote to avoid a runoff election. McDaniel is closing in on Espy for second place, but it would be a major upset if the runoff election did not pit Hyde-Smith against Espy. Hyde-Smith polls double digits ahead of Espy in the runoff, which will be held on November 27.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R)
Claire McCaskill (D)

James O’Keefe at Project Veritas is proving to be the 21st Century version of Mike Wallace from 60 Minutes in the 1970’s and 1980’s. His undercover sleuthing looks to have proven to be a mortal wound for McCaskill, and The Show Me State is looking like a Republican pick-up. O’Keefe showed them.

Montana
Jon Tester (D)
Matt Rosendale (R)

This race has gotten even tighter since our last report. We have moved it to leaning Democrat to toss-up. Tester led this race by close to double digits just after Labor Day, but it is now well within the margin of error, and this is usually a Red state. We believe that Rosendale may have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of defeating the incumbent Tester.  With the Independent candidate dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale, this could give the Republican the final two or three percent he needs to defeat Tester.

 

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D)
Bob Hugin (R)

Menendez should have secured this victory weeks ago, but Hugin continues to remain within striking distance. How the suburban turnout goes on Election Day will determine if this race will be decided by less than 2% either way. We still believe Menendez will squeak by, but this race has moved from leaning Democrat to Toss-up barely favoring the Democrat.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R)
Jacky Rosen (D)

This is one race where we have tossed out the outlier polls on both sides. We believe these polls to be too partial and thus discount them to the point where they offer no accuracy. The remaining polls have showed a slow but steady climb in the numbers for Heller. Rosen needed to hit about 48% in the most recent reliable polls, and she has failed to do so. When the challenger cannot get to 48% in the final week of an election, the incumbent will win 90+% of the time. We believe Heller wins by as much as 6%.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R)
Heidi Heitkamp (D)

Really, we should put this race into the safe Republican section, but it began as an up for grabs seat, and we will leave it here. Heitkamp had too much against her in this state. Cramer has become a star in the House of Representatives, and the House seat in North Dakota is a statewide race. In essence, Cramer has more notoriety statewide than the incumbent Heitkamp. Plus, this is a heavy Red state, so the numbers just work against Heitkamp here. Expect Cramer to approach a double-digit win.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D)
Lou Barletta (R)

Casey has never seriously been threatened in this race, as Barletta’s campaign never took off in the Metropolitan areas. Barletta needed to sweep the Pittsburgh suburbs, and it looks like he is barely getting a majority in this area. Meanwhile, Philadelphia supports Casey by a large margin, and this will lead to Casey winning in a minor landslide.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Phil Bredesen (D)

James O’Keefe strikes again! Former Nashville Mayor and Governor Bredesen was holding his own in this race in a state that went heavy for President Trump in 2016. When Project Veritas released video of the Bredesen campaign admitting that support for Justice Kavanaugh was a lie, it threw this race into safe territory for the GOP. Plus, Bredesen might have already lost a little of his female base by showing support for Kavanaugh. Blackburn has a chance to score a double-digit victory and become the first female ever to be elected to statewide office in Tennessee.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R)
Beto O’Rourke (D)

Cruz is polliing above 50% in all major polls, so this race can be put into the safe Republican seat category. O’Rourke played Russian Roulette with his stance on guns, and he was the unlucky participant.

Late note: Project Veritas struck again Thursday night when they released information showing O’Rourke campaign staffers admitting to illegally using campaign funds to supply the Honduran Caravan.  It should be the final nail in the candidate’s coffin.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D)
Patrick Morrisey (R)

Because of the limited number of polls that meet our criteria for limited bias, this race may be the hardest one for us to analyze. Manchin was once above 50% in many polls and is now below 50% in all the reliable polls. Incumbents need to stay above 48% at this point in the race in hopes to receive 2% more from the undecideds. Manchin’s average polling numbers at the end of October place him at 46-47%. Morrisey has about 43%, which means an abnormally high 10% of West Virginia’s likely voters are still undecided (or the polling data is flawed). Our statistical analysis shows that Manchin enters November with a 3% lead and with as much as 8% of likely voters still undecided. At 47.5 to 44.5, Manchin needs 2.5% of the remaining 8% to win. Incumbents tend to lose about 2/3 of the undecided vote in the final week of the election. Thus, we favor Manchin at 50.17% to 49.83% for Morrisey, in other words a very close race.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Leah Vukmir (R)

Baldwin is consistently polling between 52 and 55% in the polls with about 3-4% undecided votes. She should win by close to double-digits if not slightly over.

As of November 2, Our Prediction for the US Senate is:

Republicans 54
Democrats 46

This would be a pickup of three seats for the GOP. This would be the largest mid-term Senate gain for the President’s Party since 1962 when the Democrats gained four seats in the Mid-term with President John F. Kennedy in office. No Republican President has ever seen his party gain three seats in the Senate in a mid-term election, and George W. Bush, is the only other Republican president to see his party gain in the Senate mid-term election. In 2002, the GOP gained one seat.

 

The House of Representatives
This is the most interesting and the most difficult thing the PiRate Ratings have ever tried to analyze, be it sports, stock investments, or even when the first snow will fall in our base city. We have to admit that three of us stayed awake until past 3 AM pouring over notes and coming to different conclusions. One of us calculated a 27-seat gain for the Democrats, meaning they would own the majority at 220-215. One of us calculated that the Republicans would squeak by with a 219-216 majority and a loss of 16 seats. The third person totally screwed up his math and kept coming up with different numbers and had 436 votes until he realized at 3:15 AM that he had counted the 25th District of California twice. He came up with 220-215 majority for the GOP.
What does this mean? Be prepared to stay up all night next Tuesday into Wednesday morning, because there are a lot of toss-up races in the State of California, and polls don’t close there until maybe past your normal bedtime on the East Coast. We might not even know which party controls the House on Wednesday morning. What a big win for the news networks if this happens!

Current House Numbers
Republicans 235
Democrats 193
Vacancies 7

As of November 2, Our prediction for the House is.
Republicans 218
Democrats 217
The Democrats gain 24 total seats.

Governors
At the present time, there are 33 Republican Governors, 16 Democratic Governors, and One Independent Governor (Bill Walker of Alaska) that was once a Republican but who cut a deal with the former Democratic candidate to end his campaign and team up with him as his lieutenant governor. Walker supports the Democratic nominee Marc Begich.
There are 14 states that do not hold a Gubernatorial election this year, and it so happens that these 14 states consist of seven Republican and seven Democratic Governors. So, we begin with a 7-7 tie.

Safe for the Republicans: 12 (Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming)

Safe for the Democrats: 7 (California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island)

Subtotal: Republicans 19 Democrats 14

Leaning Republican: 4 (Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire)

Leaning Democratic: 4 (Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico)

Subtotal: Republicans 23 Democrats 18

Toss-up States: 9

Connecticut
Ned Lamont (D)
Bob Stefanowski (R)

Lamont has a slight lead and looks to have about a 75% chance of winning

Florida
Andrew Gillum (D)
Ron DeSantis (R)

Gillum was close to the 50% threshold until it became news that he is under investigation by the FBI for a corruption issue. His rating stopped at 48 and has dropped a percent or two. DeSantis now has the advantage, and more registered Republicans have voted early than registered Democrats. This looks like it is trending to DeSantis.

Iowa
Fred Hubbell (D)
Kim Reynolds (R)
Hubbell has a small lead that is within the margin of error, but he must be considered the favorite to win. We give Hubbell a 55% chance of winning.

Kansas
Laura Kelly (D)
Kris Kobach (R)
Greg Orman (I)

Orman has been polling close to double digits, and he will take away enough votes to decide this election. Kobach is likely to win because Orman will take away enough of Kelly’s support.

Nevada
Steve Sisolak (D)
Adam Laxalt (R)
Ryan Bundy (I)

This is an interesting race with news that can be considered beneficial to both sides. Laxalt had the lead in early October. Even with the Independent Bundy siphoning off some of his support, he appeared to be close to moving this race into the leaning Republican column. Early voting in crucial counties trended toward the Republicans scoring victories in both the Senate and Governor’s races. However, Heller does not have an Independent running in the Senate race. How much of the early voting Republican votes has gone to Bundy?

Then, an eleventh hour negative editorial by members of Laxalt’s family was published in print media and reported on in electronic media, where the family members claim that Laxalt is not a Nevadan but actually an Eastern elitist. Sisolak will pick up some votes here, and this race will go down to the wire.

Ohio
Richard Cordray (D)
Mike DeWine (R)

How about a flat-footed tie in a race? This one looks like a 50-50 race with just a week to go until the election. Early voting started in Ohio more than three weeks ago, and the turnout has been rather heavy, about 55% higher than the 2014 Mid-term election. If we had to bet, we’d give Cordray the very slightest edge, because the incumbent DeWine has not reached 48%, which is a vital number to us when looking at incumbents with one week to go in the race.

Oregon
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler (R)

Brown doesn’t have the 48% minimum as the incumbent, but in this case, her opponent continues to lose a tiny bit of ground. Oregon is usually a Blue State, so we will give the edge to Brown.

South Dakota
Billie Sutton (D)
Kristi Noem (R)

Noem had more name recognition as a member of the House, while Sutton is a state senator. Noem has the advantage here as this is a Red state. Our prediction here is that Noem wins by 4-6%.

Wisconsin
Tony Evers (D)
Scott Walker (R)

Here is a race where the trend line is the strongest factor. Even though the incumbent Walker is one percent below the 48% threshold, his opponent is losing ground by a statistically-relevant number. Evers, a lifelong educator and three-time state public school superintendant was pushing 50% before negative ads hit the airwaves in the Badger State. Walker has since reached 47%, while Evers has fallen under 46%, and the trend line this late in the race tilts this one in favor of Walker.

As of November 2, Our prediction for the Governors’ races are:

Republicans 26
Democrats 23
1 race totally too close to call.

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Kansas	4	Iowa St.
Air Force	Army	3	Army
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	3.5	Eastern Michigan
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wyoming	San Jose St.	3.5	Wyoming
Illinois	Minnesota	0.5	Minnesota
Cincinnati	Navy	3	Cincinnati
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Boston College	Virginia Tech	12	Virginia Tech
Michigan	Penn St.	20.5	Penn St.
Missouri	Florida	4	Florida
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	SMU	3.5	Houston
Northwestern	Notre Dame	1	Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	7	Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Northern Illinois	Akron	19.5	Akron
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	0.5	Middle Tennessee
Kentucky	Georgia	4	Georgia
Rice	UTEP	14	UTEP

 

Money Line	Parlays
3 Teams	@ +172
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Kentucky
Notre Dame	Northwestern
3 Teams	@ +125
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida	Missouri
Minnesota	Illinois
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky
4 Teams	@+180
Must Win	Must Lose
Syracuse	Wake Forest
Army	Air Force
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan
Wyoming	San Jose St.
2 Teams	@+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win	Must Lose
Texas A&M	Auburn
Arizona St.	Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	13	Oakland
Chicago	Buffalo	Pk	Chicago
Tampa Bay	Carolina	3.5	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Kansas City	1.5	Kansas City
Washington	Atlanta	12	Atlanta
Green Bay	New England	4.5	New England

 

13-point Teasers	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	18	Detroit
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	16	Pittsburgh
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	15	L.A. Chargers
Houston	Denver	9	Denver
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	32.5	Over
Minnesota	Detroit	35.5	Over
Cleveland	Kansas City	38.5	Over
Miami	N.Y. Jets	32	Over
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	57.5	Under
Washington	Atlanta	33.5	Over
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	35	Over
New England	Green Bay	66.5	Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.