The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 21-26, 2018

Oh woe to us!  After so many really nice winning weeks by our Land Sharps, they took a beating last week.  One went into the red in his account, while the other four all slipped dangerously close to joining in the red ink ledgers.

Our own PiRate Ratings have had almost a -1 correlation with the Land Sharps this year.  While the Sharps were losing, our own picks had their second best results of the season, finishing 9-3 against the spread including winning that incredible 15-game parlay.  We promise 5 Dimes not to give them any further heart attacks this year, so we will not issue any more of them.

This is rivalry week, and it is historically one of the hardest weeks for investors to show a profit by late Monday night.  However, we tend to focus on other implications besides rivalry bragging rights.  There are other, even more important factors to consider this week.  If a team is 5-6, or if a team’s coach has been told to get a cardboard box and clean out his office after Saturday, the players on that team are going to play their A-games.  A 2-9 team may play like they are 7-4, and a 4-7 team may play like they are 9-2.  On the other hand, there might be teams that saw their chance for glory go by the wayside in the last couple of weeks.  Teams that were 4-5 and are now 4-7 have little to play for.  They know this is their last game of the year, and they can look forward to spending Christmas at home.  Their mind is on Grandma’s pie and Mom’s prized winning ham.  Then, there are the teams that have suffered through dissension in the last half of the schedule.  Many of their players have basically quit on their coach, because they hope he isn’t back the next season.  There are a lot of factors to consider when playing Week 13 games.

Our Land Sharps threw caution to the wind this week.  We expected one or more to play the minimum three games trying to stall out the season and guarantee a winning record.  But, like Ted Williams in 1941, they are not going to sit out the final.  They are going to play both games of the double header.  Let’s hope they all can raise their batting average up to .407 by the end of the weekend.

1.) Cal Gal Tiffany  Season: 36-26-0  Return on Investment: 11.9%

Memphis -7 vs. Houston

Washington St.  -2 1/2 vs. Washington

Pittsburgh +4 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

South Carolina +26 1/2 vs. Clemson

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

2.) Stewed Meat  Season 35-27-1  Return on Investment: 8.4%

Ole Miss +12 vs. Mississippi St.

Coastal Carolina Pk. vs. South Alabama

Florida Int’l. +3 vs. Marshall

Troy +11 vs. Appalachian St.

SMU -2 1/2 vs. Tulsa

Colorado +12 1/2 vs. California

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

3.) Dean615  Season: 27-22-2  Return on Investment: 5.5%

Notre Dame -10 1/2 vs. USC

Houston +7 1/2 vs. Memphis

Michigan – 4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

Middle Tennessee +3 vs. UAB

Maryland +13 1/2 vs. Penn St.

Minnesota + 10 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

Tennessee +3 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle  Season: 28-23-1  Return on Investment: 5.2%

Virginia -4 vs. Virginia Tech

Indiana +4 vs. Purdue

Wake Forest +12 vs. Duke

Wyoming -6 1/2 vs. New Mexico

Kansas St. +13 1/2 vs. Iowa St.

Ohio St. +4 1/2 vs. Michigan

Washington St. -2 1/2 vs. Washington

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 30-28-1  Return on Investment: -1.4%

Buffalo – 14 1/2 vs. Bowling Green

Florida -6 vs. Florida St.

Michigan -4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

North Carolina St. -7 vs. North Carolina

Central Florida -14 vs. South Florida

Stanford -6 1/2 vs. UCLA

UAB -2 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Notre Dame – 10 1/2 vs. USC

Nevada -13 vs. UNLV

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE
10-Point Teasers 3-Game Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Air Force Colorado St. 24.5 Colorado St.
Texas Kansas 5 Texas
Navy Tulane 3 Tulane
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13 Florida Int’l.
Rice Old Dominion 2.5 Old Dominion
Central Florida South Florida 4 Central Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
New Mexico Wyoming 3 Wyoming
Arizona St. Arizona 12 Arizona
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 14.5 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulsa SMU 7.5 SMU
California Colorado 2.5 California
Notre Dame USC 0.5 Notre Dame
13-point Teasers 4 Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Middle Tennessee UAB 10.5 UAB
Duke Wake Forest 25 Wake Forest
West Virginia Oklahoma 10.5 Oklahoma
Washington Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Missouri Arkansas 10 Missouri
Michigan Ohio St. 17.5 Ohio St.
LSU Texas A&M 10 Texas A&M
Utah St. Boise St. 10.5 Boise St.
Money Line Parlay @ +175
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Marshall
Texas Kansas
Money Line Parlay @ +153
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Georgia Southern Georgia St.
Central Florida South Florida
Money Line Parlay @ +222
Must Win Must Lose
Oklahoma West Virginia
Wyoming New Mexico
Tulane Navy
Money Line Parlay @ +295
Must Win Must Lose
Washington St. Washington
UL-Monroe Louisiana
Florida Florida St.
NFL
10-Point Teaser 3-Game Parlay @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Chicago Detroit 13.5 Detroit
Washington Dallas 3 Dallas
New Orleans Atlanta 3 New Orleans
13-Point Teasers 4-Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 19 N.Y. Giants
N.Y. Jets New England 2.5 New England
Arizona L.A. Chargers 0.5 L.A. Chargers
Miami Indianapolis 5.5 Indianapolis
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Dallas Washington 27.5 Over
San Francisco Tampa Bay 67.5 Under
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 33 Over

Remember This Important Fact: All of the selections you see here are posted for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Pirates or guest Land Sharps actually play their selections for real.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, Stewed never posts the actual picks played in Nevada.  These are Stewed’s runner up picks that are not played.  We strongly encourage you not to wager real money on any selections you see here.

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November 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 14-19, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:05 am

Call it a rebound week.  After a few weeks of mediocrity, our five Land Sharps went a combined 15-6 last week, and four of the five experts enjoyed highly profitable weeks.

Buckeye Michelle and Stewed Meat were both undefeated in their picks at 3-0 apiece.  Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2, and Dean615 went 2-1.  Friday Dog 13, stuck with a lot of favorites and like so many in “No Fave November,” he finished 2-3.  The week left three of our five Sharps with double digit percentage returns on investment.  The best news is that with two weeks remaining in the regular season, all five of our experts have winning records.  Friends, that is an incredible feat.  To go an entire college football season with a winning record is more rare a feat than beating the S&P 500 returns for a decade.  Few ever do it, so when five out of five here have winning records, it is incredible.

Now, let’s hope this isn’t the kiss of death.  Here are our Land Sharp picks for this week.  All the Land Sharps were on the same page this week; each of the five selected five games each.

1.) Dean 615:  Season 26-18-2 59.1%  Return on Investment 13.5%

Baylor -2 vs. TCU

Nebraska +2.5 vs. Michigan St.

West Virginia -4.5 vs. Oklahoma St.

Purdue -4.5 vs. Wisconsin

Ole Miss +3 vs. Vanderbilt

 

2 tie) Cal Gal Tiffany: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

Tennessee +7 vs. Missouri

UCLA +3.5 vs. USC

Virginia +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +5.5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

California +2.5 vs. Stanford

 

2 tie) Stewed Meat: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

North Texas -3.5 vs. Florida Atlantic

Colgate +11 vs. Army

UL-Monroe +8 vs. Arkansas St.

Wyoming -2 vs. Air Force

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle:  Season 26-20-1  56.5%  Return on Investment  8.5%

Buffalo +2.5 vs. Ohio

Miami (O) +7.5 vs. Northern Illinois

SMU +9 vs. Memphis

Indiana +28.5 vs. Michigan

Iowa St. +3 vs. Texas

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 29-24-1  54.7%  Return on Investment  4.8%

Washington St. -9.5 vs. Arizona

Cincinnati +7.5 vs. Central Florida

Nevada -14.5 vs. San Jose St.

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

Arkansas +21.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

The PiRate Ratings’ Goofy Parlays

We sure hope you heed our weekly warning to never wager real money on our just for fun selections.  We are not professionals at this, and even though one of the Land Sharps is a professional, Stewed never publishes the actual selections played for real, because Stewed is selfish about keeping the line where Stewed wants it to be.  She knows that if all of you reading this played the same selections, the line might move by a half-point.  This was said tongue-in-cheek, but in actuality, we know that a certain few of you reading this in the Caribbean, and in places like Reno, Las Vegas, and Tahoe, that you do look at our actual computer ratings before you make your weekly investment.

Just remember that we have never placed $1 on any of these goofy picks we publish.  It’s just for fun.  We are math nerds and have no relationship with any of the MIT and Cal Tech math geniuses that create advanced algorithmic equations to beat the spread.  Of course, all of those geniuses are looking up at the PiRate Ratings in both college and pro against the spread this season, as we are currently in first place at the Prediction Tracker against the College and the NFL Spread.  A wise man once said that a broken clock is accurate twice a day, and this season is one of those times for us.

Now, here are our goofy plays this week.  Have a good laugh but laugh all the way to the bank when you DON’T wager on these games.

COLLEGE
10-point Teaser 3-team Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston Tulane Pk Houston
Memphis SMU 19 SMU
Boise St. New Mexico 9.5 Boise St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 6 Kentucky
TCU Baylor 8 Baylor
Wake Forest Pittsburgh 3 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Ohio St. Maryland 4 Ohio St.
Michigan St. Nebraska 8 Nebraska
Minnesota Northwestern 7.5 Northwestern
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Temple USF 4 Temple
Utah Colorado 17 Colorado
Notre Dame Syracuse 20.5 Syracuse
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arkansas St. UL-Monroe 18 UL-Monroe
Missouri Tennessee 16 Tennessee
USC UCLA 13.5 UCLA
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Texas Tech Kansas St. 16 Kansas St.
Florida St. Boston College 8.5 Boston College
Georgia Tech Virginia 16.5 Virginia
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Michigan Indiana 38.5 Indiana
Air Force Wyoming 7.5 Wyoming
Nevada San Jose St. 4.5 Nevada
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 13 Ole Miss
Stanford California 12.5 California
Western Kentucky UTEP 17 UTEP

 

Special Parlay using 5 Dimes
20-point Teaser 15 games @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Memphis SMU 29 SMU
Alabama The Citadel 32 Alabama
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 36 Middle Tenn.
TCU Baylor 18 Baylor
Michigan St. Nebraska 22.5 Nebraska
Northwestern Minnesota 22 Minnesota
Florida Idaho 20 Florida
Marshall UTSA 47 UTSA
Florida St. Boston College 18.5 Boston College
Georgia Tech Virginia 27 Virginia
Miami (Fla.) Virginia Tech 25.5 Virginia Tech
Air Force Wyoming 17.5 Wyoming
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 22.5 Ole Miss
Western Kentucky UTEP 27 UTEP
Arizona Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.

 

NFL
10-Point Teasers 3 Team Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay Seattle 7.5 Seattle
Tennessee Indianapolis 8 Indianapolis
Atlanta Dallas 13.5 Dallas
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tampa Bay N.Y. Giants 9 N.Y. Giants
Houston Washington 13 Washington
Jacksonville Pittsburgh 4 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Denver L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Philadelphia New Orleans 1 New Orleans
Minnesota Chicago 7.5 Chicago
Team Team Total Pick
Seattle Green Bay 59 Under
Atlanta Dallas 38 Over
N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay 42 Over

 

 

 

November 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Syracuse Louisville 10.5 Syracuse
Texas A&M Ole Miss 1.5 Texas A&M
Kansas St. Kansas 22 Kansas

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
West Virginia TCU 1.5 WVU
Eastern Michigan Akron 3 EMU
Duke North Carolina Pk Duke

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arizona St. UCLA 2.5 Arizona St.
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 9.5 Oklahoma
Purdue Minnesota 2.5 Purdue

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulane East Carolina 3.5 Tulane
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 10 Florida Atlantic
Georgia Auburn 24.5 Auburn

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cinciannati East Carolina 2.5 Cincinnati
Texas Tech Texas 8.5 Texas
UAB Southern Miss. 2.5 UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 4 NC St.
Florida South Carolina 20 S. Car.
BYU Massachusetts 27 UMass
Troy Georgia Southern 14.5 Ga. Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Kentucky 7 Kentucky
Colorado Washington St. 7 Washington St.
Louisiana Georgia St. 1 Louisiana
South Alabama UL-Monroe 7.5 UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win Must Lose
Ohio U Miami (O)
Northern Illinois Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Florida
Kansas Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Chicago 6.5 Chicago
Kansas City Arizona 3.5 Kansas City
Tennessee New England 6.5 New England
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10 Indianapolis

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Miami Green Bay 3 Green Bay
Seattle L.A. Rams 3 L.A. Rams
Dallas Philadelphia 6.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Cincinnati New Orleans 41 Over
Cleveland Atlanta 37.5 Over
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 24 Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 5, 2018

Final Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Pardon our brevity today, but we do have other tasks at hands on the PiRate ship.  This is our final election eve analytical look at the 2018 Mid-term Election races.

U.S. Senate

We were tempted to make one slight change today based on the final reliable polling coming from a couple of honest pollsters.  However, in these states, Early Voting has already seen large percentages of voters deciding.  We have to use the polls at the time of Early Voting, so we did not move the needle at all.

For three weeks, we have been split between 53-47 and 54-46 in favor of the Republicans in the Senate.  Our Over/Under spread would be 53 1/2.

U.S. House of Representatives

This could take up hours more than we have to explain, and if you are reading this 14 hours before the polls open on the East Coast, you only have time for a couple of paragraphs.

Based on our models of handicapping the polls based on their recent biases from the previous election, we believe that the Democrats are assured of picking up 13 seats as their floor and 34 seats as their ceiling.  They currently own 193 seats, so this bumps their minimum in the next Congress to 206 and a maximum of 227.  It takes 218 to get a majority.

We believe that there are about 26 seats remaining that are true tossup races.  Of the 26 tossups, the Democrats need to win 12 of the races to gain control.  If you factor in that the Democrats polled a little better three weeks ago when some states commenced with early voting, we tend to tilt the needle of toss-up races in their favor.  If we had to wager on an over/under number for the number of Democrats in the next Congress, we’d place that number at 219.5, since our data shows the Democrats taking control of the House by a margin of 219 to 216 or 220 to 215.

Gubernatorial Races

We must admit that we did not perform any additional data mining on the governor’s races.  We will stick with our over/under number of 26.5 in favor of the Republicans, as our data is split between 26-24 and 27-23 in favor of the GOP.

 

Our plea with our incredible brothers and sisters of the greatest nation in the world.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, please act like a good and decent human being and accept the results without resulting to violence.  Our nation received the most incredible gift from our Founding Fathers.

There is a fantastic quote attributable to Benjamin Franklin in 1787.  When Franklin was leaving Independence Hall following long hours of discussion at the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Franklin as he left the hall whether our new nation would be a Republic or a Monarchy.

Franklin’s genius reply was, “A Republic if you can keep it.”

My fellow friends and countrymen, we are doing our worst not to keep it.  I lived through the 1968 through 1972 election cycle.  I never believed the nation could become more divided then than ever again in my lifetime.  We are approaching this four year black eye.  Let’s stop it before it can surpass those four years.

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

November 1, 2018

Update To An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

This update to the statistical analysis we gave two weeks ago will be shorter than the previous post given due to time constraints, but we believe it will be a little more accurate now that there are many additional points to plot on our regression boards.

SENATE

Safe Seats

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)

Moved from Safe to Leaning

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D) vs. Karin Housley (R) Smith +4

Smith has the advantage, but her lead has dwindled to the point where a large GOP voting turnout could flip this seat to the Republicans. Housley has proven to be a formidable campaigner and has cut a double-digit lead down to within the margin of error when our formula has been applied.

Toss-up States

Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Martha McSally (R)

Recent news of statements made by Sinema concerning her constituents has cost her almost any chance of winning this race. It is almost a safe seat for the Republicans

Florida
Bill Nelson (D)
Rick Scott (R)

This is probably the closest race in the Senate. Voter turnout on election day will decide the winner. The stats show Nelson with less than two-tenths of a percent lead. Might there be a challenge by whoever loses? In Florida, it’s a good chance.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D)
Mike Braun (R)
Lucy Brenton (L)

This race became a lot more interesting at the end of October, as the Indiana Democratic Party released a mass mailer telling people to vote for Libertarian candidate Brenton, as a ploy to get Braun supporters to vote for Brenton and thus give Donnelly the win. Braun was once a Democrat, and he may lose just enough support to Brenton for Donnelly to win with a plurality but not a majority of the vote.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Mike Espy (D)
Chris McDaniel (R)
Toby Bartee (D)

Hyde-Smith appears to be in excellent shape to finish in first in the open primary, but she should fall short of the needed 50%+1 vote to avoid a runoff election. McDaniel is closing in on Espy for second place, but it would be a major upset if the runoff election did not pit Hyde-Smith against Espy. Hyde-Smith polls double digits ahead of Espy in the runoff, which will be held on November 27.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R)
Claire McCaskill (D)

James O’Keefe at Project Veritas is proving to be the 21st Century version of Mike Wallace from 60 Minutes in the 1970’s and 1980’s. His undercover sleuthing looks to have proven to be a mortal wound for McCaskill, and The Show Me State is looking like a Republican pick-up. O’Keefe showed them.

Montana
Jon Tester (D)
Matt Rosendale (R)

This race has gotten even tighter since our last report. We have moved it to leaning Democrat to toss-up. Tester led this race by close to double digits just after Labor Day, but it is now well within the margin of error, and this is usually a Red state. We believe that Rosendale may have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of defeating the incumbent Tester.  With the Independent candidate dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale, this could give the Republican the final two or three percent he needs to defeat Tester.

 

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D)
Bob Hugin (R)

Menendez should have secured this victory weeks ago, but Hugin continues to remain within striking distance. How the suburban turnout goes on Election Day will determine if this race will be decided by less than 2% either way. We still believe Menendez will squeak by, but this race has moved from leaning Democrat to Toss-up barely favoring the Democrat.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R)
Jacky Rosen (D)

This is one race where we have tossed out the outlier polls on both sides. We believe these polls to be too partial and thus discount them to the point where they offer no accuracy. The remaining polls have showed a slow but steady climb in the numbers for Heller. Rosen needed to hit about 48% in the most recent reliable polls, and she has failed to do so. When the challenger cannot get to 48% in the final week of an election, the incumbent will win 90+% of the time. We believe Heller wins by as much as 6%.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R)
Heidi Heitkamp (D)

Really, we should put this race into the safe Republican section, but it began as an up for grabs seat, and we will leave it here. Heitkamp had too much against her in this state. Cramer has become a star in the House of Representatives, and the House seat in North Dakota is a statewide race. In essence, Cramer has more notoriety statewide than the incumbent Heitkamp. Plus, this is a heavy Red state, so the numbers just work against Heitkamp here. Expect Cramer to approach a double-digit win.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D)
Lou Barletta (R)

Casey has never seriously been threatened in this race, as Barletta’s campaign never took off in the Metropolitan areas. Barletta needed to sweep the Pittsburgh suburbs, and it looks like he is barely getting a majority in this area. Meanwhile, Philadelphia supports Casey by a large margin, and this will lead to Casey winning in a minor landslide.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Phil Bredesen (D)

James O’Keefe strikes again! Former Nashville Mayor and Governor Bredesen was holding his own in this race in a state that went heavy for President Trump in 2016. When Project Veritas released video of the Bredesen campaign admitting that support for Justice Kavanaugh was a lie, it threw this race into safe territory for the GOP. Plus, Bredesen might have already lost a little of his female base by showing support for Kavanaugh. Blackburn has a chance to score a double-digit victory and become the first female ever to be elected to statewide office in Tennessee.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R)
Beto O’Rourke (D)

Cruz is polliing above 50% in all major polls, so this race can be put into the safe Republican seat category. O’Rourke played Russian Roulette with his stance on guns, and he was the unlucky participant.

Late note: Project Veritas struck again Thursday night when they released information showing O’Rourke campaign staffers admitting to illegally using campaign funds to supply the Honduran Caravan.  It should be the final nail in the candidate’s coffin.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D)
Patrick Morrisey (R)

Because of the limited number of polls that meet our criteria for limited bias, this race may be the hardest one for us to analyze. Manchin was once above 50% in many polls and is now below 50% in all the reliable polls. Incumbents need to stay above 48% at this point in the race in hopes to receive 2% more from the undecideds. Manchin’s average polling numbers at the end of October place him at 46-47%. Morrisey has about 43%, which means an abnormally high 10% of West Virginia’s likely voters are still undecided (or the polling data is flawed). Our statistical analysis shows that Manchin enters November with a 3% lead and with as much as 8% of likely voters still undecided. At 47.5 to 44.5, Manchin needs 2.5% of the remaining 8% to win. Incumbents tend to lose about 2/3 of the undecided vote in the final week of the election. Thus, we favor Manchin at 50.17% to 49.83% for Morrisey, in other words a very close race.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Leah Vukmir (R)

Baldwin is consistently polling between 52 and 55% in the polls with about 3-4% undecided votes. She should win by close to double-digits if not slightly over.

As of November 2, Our Prediction for the US Senate is:

Republicans 54
Democrats 46

This would be a pickup of three seats for the GOP. This would be the largest mid-term Senate gain for the President’s Party since 1962 when the Democrats gained four seats in the Mid-term with President John F. Kennedy in office. No Republican President has ever seen his party gain three seats in the Senate in a mid-term election, and George W. Bush, is the only other Republican president to see his party gain in the Senate mid-term election. In 2002, the GOP gained one seat.

 

The House of Representatives
This is the most interesting and the most difficult thing the PiRate Ratings have ever tried to analyze, be it sports, stock investments, or even when the first snow will fall in our base city. We have to admit that three of us stayed awake until past 3 AM pouring over notes and coming to different conclusions. One of us calculated a 27-seat gain for the Democrats, meaning they would own the majority at 220-215. One of us calculated that the Republicans would squeak by with a 219-216 majority and a loss of 16 seats. The third person totally screwed up his math and kept coming up with different numbers and had 436 votes until he realized at 3:15 AM that he had counted the 25th District of California twice. He came up with 220-215 majority for the GOP.
What does this mean? Be prepared to stay up all night next Tuesday into Wednesday morning, because there are a lot of toss-up races in the State of California, and polls don’t close there until maybe past your normal bedtime on the East Coast. We might not even know which party controls the House on Wednesday morning. What a big win for the news networks if this happens!

Current House Numbers
Republicans 235
Democrats 193
Vacancies 7

As of November 2, Our prediction for the House is.
Republicans 218
Democrats 217
The Democrats gain 24 total seats.

Governors
At the present time, there are 33 Republican Governors, 16 Democratic Governors, and One Independent Governor (Bill Walker of Alaska) that was once a Republican but who cut a deal with the former Democratic candidate to end his campaign and team up with him as his lieutenant governor. Walker supports the Democratic nominee Marc Begich.
There are 14 states that do not hold a Gubernatorial election this year, and it so happens that these 14 states consist of seven Republican and seven Democratic Governors. So, we begin with a 7-7 tie.

Safe for the Republicans: 12 (Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming)

Safe for the Democrats: 7 (California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island)

Subtotal: Republicans 19 Democrats 14

Leaning Republican: 4 (Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire)

Leaning Democratic: 4 (Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico)

Subtotal: Republicans 23 Democrats 18

Toss-up States: 9

Connecticut
Ned Lamont (D)
Bob Stefanowski (R)

Lamont has a slight lead and looks to have about a 75% chance of winning

Florida
Andrew Gillum (D)
Ron DeSantis (R)

Gillum was close to the 50% threshold until it became news that he is under investigation by the FBI for a corruption issue. His rating stopped at 48 and has dropped a percent or two. DeSantis now has the advantage, and more registered Republicans have voted early than registered Democrats. This looks like it is trending to DeSantis.

Iowa
Fred Hubbell (D)
Kim Reynolds (R)
Hubbell has a small lead that is within the margin of error, but he must be considered the favorite to win. We give Hubbell a 55% chance of winning.

Kansas
Laura Kelly (D)
Kris Kobach (R)
Greg Orman (I)

Orman has been polling close to double digits, and he will take away enough votes to decide this election. Kobach is likely to win because Orman will take away enough of Kelly’s support.

Nevada
Steve Sisolak (D)
Adam Laxalt (R)
Ryan Bundy (I)

This is an interesting race with news that can be considered beneficial to both sides. Laxalt had the lead in early October. Even with the Independent Bundy siphoning off some of his support, he appeared to be close to moving this race into the leaning Republican column. Early voting in crucial counties trended toward the Republicans scoring victories in both the Senate and Governor’s races. However, Heller does not have an Independent running in the Senate race. How much of the early voting Republican votes has gone to Bundy?

Then, an eleventh hour negative editorial by members of Laxalt’s family was published in print media and reported on in electronic media, where the family members claim that Laxalt is not a Nevadan but actually an Eastern elitist. Sisolak will pick up some votes here, and this race will go down to the wire.

Ohio
Richard Cordray (D)
Mike DeWine (R)

How about a flat-footed tie in a race? This one looks like a 50-50 race with just a week to go until the election. Early voting started in Ohio more than three weeks ago, and the turnout has been rather heavy, about 55% higher than the 2014 Mid-term election. If we had to bet, we’d give Cordray the very slightest edge, because the incumbent DeWine has not reached 48%, which is a vital number to us when looking at incumbents with one week to go in the race.

Oregon
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler (R)

Brown doesn’t have the 48% minimum as the incumbent, but in this case, her opponent continues to lose a tiny bit of ground. Oregon is usually a Blue State, so we will give the edge to Brown.

South Dakota
Billie Sutton (D)
Kristi Noem (R)

Noem had more name recognition as a member of the House, while Sutton is a state senator. Noem has the advantage here as this is a Red state. Our prediction here is that Noem wins by 4-6%.

Wisconsin
Tony Evers (D)
Scott Walker (R)

Here is a race where the trend line is the strongest factor. Even though the incumbent Walker is one percent below the 48% threshold, his opponent is losing ground by a statistically-relevant number. Evers, a lifelong educator and three-time state public school superintendant was pushing 50% before negative ads hit the airwaves in the Badger State. Walker has since reached 47%, while Evers has fallen under 46%, and the trend line this late in the race tilts this one in favor of Walker.

As of November 2, Our prediction for the Governors’ races are:

Republicans 26
Democrats 23
1 race totally too close to call.

October 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Iowa St. Kansas 4 Iowa St.
Air Force Army 3 Army
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3.5 Eastern Michigan
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wyoming San Jose St. 3.5 Wyoming
Illinois Minnesota 0.5 Minnesota
Cincinnati Navy 3 Cincinnati
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Boston College Virginia Tech 12 Virginia Tech
Michigan Penn St. 20.5 Penn St.
Missouri Florida 4 Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston SMU 3.5 Houston
Northwestern Notre Dame 1 Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 7 Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Northern Illinois Akron 19.5 Akron
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 0.5 Middle Tennessee
Kentucky Georgia 4 Georgia
Rice UTEP 14 UTEP

 

Money Line Parlays
3 Teams @ +172
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Kentucky
Notre Dame Northwestern
3 Teams @ +125
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Missouri
Minnesota Illinois
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky
4 Teams @+180
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Wake Forest
Army Air Force
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan
Wyoming San Jose St.
2 Teams @+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win Must Lose
Texas A&M Auburn
Arizona St. Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Oakland 13 Oakland
Chicago Buffalo Pk Chicago
Tampa Bay Carolina 3.5 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Kansas City 1.5 Kansas City
Washington Atlanta 12 Atlanta
Green Bay New England 4.5 New England

 

13-point Teasers 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Detroit 18 Detroit
Baltimore Pittsburgh 16 Pittsburgh
Seattle L.A. Chargers 15 L.A. Chargers
Houston Denver 9 Denver
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
San Francisco Oakland 32.5 Over
Minnesota Detroit 35.5 Over
Cleveland Kansas City 38.5 Over
Miami N.Y. Jets 32 Over
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Baltimore Pittsburgh 57.5 Under
Washington Atlanta 33.5 Over
Seattle L.A. Chargers 35 Over
New England Green Bay 66.5 Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 9

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:23 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday October 23
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
South Alabama Troy -11.2 -10.6 -11.9

 

Thursday October 25
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Western Michigan Toledo 1.0 1.6 2.2
Ohio U Ball St. 14.0 13.0 14.9
Georgia Southern Appalachian St. -8.3 -8.3 -9.2
Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 3.9 4.1 4.0
West Virginia Baylor 12.4 13.2 11.7

 

Friday October 26
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Miami (Fla.) 1.5 0.3 1.4
Minnesota Indiana 3.6 3.6 3.3
UCLA Utah -13.9 -12.4 -17.0
Colorado St. Wyoming -8.0 -7.1 -7.6
Florida Atlantic Louisiana Tech 5.3 3.7 4.6

 

Saturday October 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Old Dominion Middle Tennessee -6.5 -4.5 -7.7
Syracuse North Carolina St. -0.5 -1.6 -1.3
Virginia North Carolina 10.4 11.6 10.3
Akron Central Michigan 9.6 8.5 9.7
Pittsburgh Duke -8.1 -6.9 -8.2
Maryland Illinois 16.4 15.5 16.5
Louisville Wake Forest -3.8 -1.6 -2.4
Northwestern Wisconsin -4.3 -3.6 -4.2
Eastern Michigan Army -6.0 -5.2 -5.6
Charlotte Southern Miss. -4.4 -5.3 -4.5
Kansas TCU -10.2 -10.4 -10.7
Connecticut Massachusetts -3.1 -4.6 -4.9
Georgia St. Coastal Carolina 3.0 2.5 3.1
Utah St. New Mexico 23.4 23.3 24.6
Colorado Oregon St. 23.7 27.2 26.6
UTEP UAB -20.5 -19.9 -21.7
BYU Northern Illinois 8.2 7.9 9.0
Nevada San Diego St. -3.7 -3.7 -4.2
Stanford Washington St. 7.5 5.9 8.1
USC Arizona St. 4.8 5.0 4.9
California Washington -13.4 -13.9 -15.0
Florida (n) Georgia -13.2 -11.7 -13.1
San Jose St. UNLV -3.9 -4.5 -5.8
Tulsa Tulane -0.4 -1.3 0.6
Mississippi St. Texas A&M 6.9 6.0 7.3
Missouri Kentucky 5.0 4.5 6.4
South Carolina Tennessee 16.3 14.7 16.4
Oklahoma St. Texas -1.1 -1.6 -0.9
North Texas Rice 34.8 34.6 37.3
Houston South Florida 10.0 9.0 10.7
Penn St. Iowa 7.0 6.2 7.2
Michigan St. Purdue 5.9 5.0 5.1
Western Kentucky Florida Int’l. -6.4 -7.3 -6.2
SMU Cincinnati -2.6 -4.6 -3.8
Arkansas Vanderbilt 2.9 0.2 1.8
Oklahoma Kansas St. 19.6 19.7 20.8
Louisiana Arkansas St. -2.4 -1.6 -2.8
Texas St. New Mexico St. 1.2 2.2 1.0
Iowa St. Texas Tech 4.8 4.4 5.6
Air Force Boise St. -11.6 -10.4 -11.6
Florida St. Clemson -23.9 -22.0 -24.9
Notre Dame Navy 36.6 31.7 36.0
Arizona Oregon -8.6 -10.2 -9.1
Fresno St. Hawaii 35.5 33.0 37.0

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Nebraska Bethune-Cookman 36.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

The PiRate Ratings are predictive and not meant to rank teams on what they have done to date.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.6 140.0
2 Clemson 135.5 132.8 136.1 134.8
3 Georgia 128.1 125.0 128.9 127.3
4 Michigan 126.6 125.4 127.2 126.4
5 Notre Dame 124.8 122.0 123.8 123.5
6 Ohio St. 123.2 121.2 123.3 122.6
7 Washington 122.8 120.9 123.9 122.5
8 Oklahoma 121.2 119.9 121.5 120.9
9 Penn St. 121.0 118.4 121.0 120.1
10 L S U 119.8 119.4 121.1 120.1
11 Mississippi St. 118.4 116.1 119.0 117.9
12 Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3
13 Missouri 116.4 114.9 117.6 116.3
14 Utah 116.3 114.6 117.1 116.0
15 Michigan St. 116.9 114.7 116.2 116.0
16 Miami 116.2 114.8 115.7 115.6
17 Auburn 115.2 114.0 116.8 115.3
18 Wisconsin 115.9 113.4 115.4 114.9
19 Stanford 115.6 113.1 115.8 114.8
20 Florida 114.9 113.3 115.8 114.6
21 Central Florida 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.4
22 Texas A&M 114.5 113.2 114.7 114.1
23 Kentucky 114.4 113.4 114.2 114.0
24 Boston College 114.7 112.1 114.1 113.7
25 Purdue 114.1 112.7 114.1 113.6
26 Texas 113.8 112.4 113.3 113.1
27 Iowa State 113.1 111.5 112.9 112.5
28 N. Carolina St. 112.6 112.1 112.4 112.4
29 Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4
30 Oregon 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.3
31 Duke 112.9 110.9 112.3 112.1
32 Virginia Tech 112.5 111.5 112.1 112.0
33 West Virginia 112.7 111.7 111.8 112.0
34 S. Carolina 112.5 111.3 112.1 112.0
35 Georgia Tech 111.5 110.4 111.1 111.0
36 Washington St. 111.1 110.2 110.7 110.7
37 Texas Tech 111.3 110.1 110.4 110.6
38 Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.8 109.5
39 T C U 110.3 109.1 108.9 109.4
40 Oklahoma St. 109.7 107.8 109.4 108.9
41 U S C 109.5 108.1 109.1 108.9
42 Northwestern 109.1 107.4 108.7 108.4
43 Utah St. 107.6 108.8 108.8 108.4
44 Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.1 108.3
45 Florida St. 108.6 107.8 108.2 108.2
46 Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6
47 Arizona St. 107.7 106.2 107.1 107.0
48 California 106.4 104.0 105.9 105.4
49 Colorado 104.3 105.3 105.4 105.0
50 Army 103.9 104.6 104.1 104.2
51 Kansas St. 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8
52 Maryland 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8
53 Houston 103.2 104.0 103.7 103.6
54 Ole Miss 103.3 102.8 103.6 103.2
55 Baylor 103.3 101.5 103.0 102.6
56 Temple 102.2 102.2 102.9 102.4
57 Memphis 100.8 102.3 101.6 101.6
58 Appalachian St. 100.4 102.2 102.0 101.5
59 Pittsburgh 101.7 101.0 101.1 101.3
60 Vanderbilt 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.1
61 Wake Forest 102.3 100.1 100.1 100.8
62 BYU 100.4 100.9 101.0 100.7
63 San Diego St. 100.0 100.1 100.6 100.2
64 N. Texas 99.1 101.5 99.9 100.1
65 Arizona 100.6 98.9 100.7 100.0
66 Buffalo 99.0 101.0 100.1 100.0
67 Minnesota 100.5 99.4 100.0 100.0
68 N. Carolina 100.2 99.3 99.8 99.8
69 Arkansas 101.0 98.4 99.9 99.8
70 Nebraska 100.6 99.3 99.2 99.7
71 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
72 Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.7 99.2
73 Cincinnati 98.4 100.0 98.8 99.0
74 U C L A 99.5 99.2 97.1 98.6
75 U A B 95.7 98.3 96.6 96.9
76 South Florida 96.2 98.0 96.0 96.7
77 Marshall 95.1 97.7 96.2 96.4
78 Kansas 97.1 95.6 95.2 96.0
79 Toledo 95.5 96.7 95.3 95.8
80 Eastern Michigan 94.9 96.4 95.5 95.6
81 Florida Atlantic 95.2 96.0 95.6 95.6
82 Northern Illinois 95.2 95.9 95.0 95.4
83 Air Force 95.1 95.7 95.2 95.3
84 Louisville 95.5 95.5 94.7 95.2
85 Miami (O) 93.8 95.5 96.1 95.1
86 Ohio U 94.1 95.3 94.8 94.7
87 Western Michigan 93.5 95.2 94.5 94.4
88 Wyoming 94.5 94.5 94.1 94.3
89 Louisiana Tech 92.9 95.3 94.0 94.0
90 Nevada 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.3
91 Tulane 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.1
92 SMU 92.8 92.3 92.0 92.4
93 Middle Tennessee 91.3 92.7 92.2 92.1
94 Navy 91.2 93.3 90.7 91.8
95 Troy 90.8 92.1 92.1 91.7
96 Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.2 89.8 90.8
97 Illinois 91.3 90.7 90.2 90.7
98 Akron 90.1 91.3 90.3 90.6
99 Tulsa 90.3 89.6 90.8 90.2
100 Georgia Southern 89.1 90.9 89.8 89.9
101 Arkansas St. 87.0 88.4 88.5 88.0
102 New Mexico 87.2 88.5 87.1 87.6
103 Southern Miss. 84.4 87.6 85.0 85.7
104 Rutgers 85.9 84.8 84.2 85.0
105 Colorado St. 84.5 85.3 84.4 84.7
106 U N L V 83.4 84.8 83.7 84.0
107 Central Michigan 83.0 85.3 83.2 83.8
108 Ball St. 83.1 85.3 82.9 83.8
109 Old Dominion 82.3 85.7 82.0 83.4
110 Louisiana 82.1 84.3 83.3 83.2
111 East Carolina 83.2 82.9 82.6 82.9
112 UL-Monroe 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.3
113 Oregon St. 83.6 81.1 81.7 82.1
114 W. Kentucky 80.4 83.4 81.1 81.6
115 Liberty 81.4 80.6 81.6 81.2
116 Hawaii 81.0 82.7 79.9 81.2
117 Massachusetts 80.3 82.2 81.0 81.2
118 Georgia St. 78.9 80.8 79.5 79.7
119 Coastal Carolina 78.3 80.8 78.9 79.3
120 Kent St. 78.7 79.9 78.6 79.1
121 Bowling Green 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.8
122 U T S A 77.2 81.2 77.8 78.8
123 Charlotte 77.5 79.9 78.0 78.5
124 South Alabama 76.6 78.5 77.2 77.4
125 San Jose St. 77.0 77.8 75.4 76.7
126 Connecticut 75.2 75.7 74.1 75.0
127 U T E P 72.7 75.9 72.5 73.7
128 N. Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5
129 Texas State 71.6 74.4 71.5 72.5
130 Rice 66.2 68.8 64.6 66.6

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.2 114.4 114.5 114.4 4-0 7-0
Temple 102.2 102.2 102.9 102.4 4-0 5-3
Cincinnati 98.4 100.0 98.8 99.0 2-1 6-1
South Florida 96.2 98.0 96.0 96.7 3-0 7-0
East Carolina 83.2 82.9 82.6 82.9 0-4 2-5
Connecticut 75.2 75.7 74.1 75.0 0-4 1-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 103.2 104.0 103.7 103.6 3-0 6-1
Memphis 100.8 102.3 101.6 101.6 1-3 4-4
Tulane 93.1 93.4 92.7 93.1 1-2 2-5
SMU 92.8 92.3 92.0 92.4 2-1 3-4
Navy 91.2 93.3 90.7 91.8 1-3 2-5
Tulsa 90.3 89.6 90.8 90.2 0-3 1-6
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.0 95.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 135.5 132.8 136.1 134.8 4-0 7-0
Boston College 114.7 112.1 114.1 113.7 2-1 5-2
N. Carolina St. 112.6 112.1 112.4 112.4 1-1 5-1
Syracuse 109.1 107.6 108.1 108.3 2-2 5-2
Florida St. 108.6 107.8 108.2 108.2 2-3 4-3
Wake Forest 102.3 100.1 100.1 100.8 0-3 3-4
Louisville 95.5 95.5 94.7 95.2 0-4 2-5
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.2 114.8 115.7 115.6 2-1 5-2
Duke 112.9 110.9 112.3 112.1 1-2 5-2
Virginia Tech 112.5 111.5 112.1 112.0 3-0 4-2
Georgia Tech 111.5 110.4 111.1 111.0 1-3 3-4
Virginia 107.6 108.0 107.1 107.6 3-1 5-2
Pittsburgh 101.7 101.0 101.1 101.3 2-1 3-4
N. Carolina 100.2 99.3 99.8 99.8 1-3 1-5
ACC Averages 110.1 108.9 109.5 109.5
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 121.2 119.9 121.5 120.9 3-1 6-1
Texas 113.8 112.4 113.3 113.1 4-0 6-1
Iowa State 113.1 111.5 112.9 112.5 2-2 3-3
West Virginia 112.7 111.7 111.8 112.0 3-1 5-1
Texas Tech 111.3 110.1 110.4 110.6 3-1 5-2
T C U 110.3 109.1 108.9 109.4 1-3 3-4
Oklahoma St. 109.7 107.8 109.4 108.9 1-3 4-3
Kansas St. 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 1-3 3-4
Baylor 103.3 101.5 103.0 102.6 2-2 4-3
Kansas 97.1 95.6 95.2 96.0 0-4 2-5
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 126.6 125.4 127.2 126.4 5-0 7-1
Ohio St. 123.2 121.2 123.3 122.6 4-1 7-1
Penn St. 121.0 118.4 121.0 120.1 2-2 5-2
Michigan St. 116.9 114.7 116.2 116.0 3-2 4-3
Maryland 104.6 103.2 103.7 103.8 2-2 4-3
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-4 4-4
Rutgers 85.9 84.8 84.2 85.0 0-5 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 117.0 115.1 116.8 116.3 3-1 6-1
Wisconsin 115.9 113.4 115.4 114.9 3-1 5-2
Purdue 114.1 112.7 114.1 113.6 3-1 4-3
Northwestern 109.1 107.4 108.7 108.4 4-1 4-3
Minnesota 100.5 99.4 100.0 100.0 0-4 3-4
Nebraska 100.6 99.3 99.2 99.7 1-4 1-6
Illinois 91.3 90.7 90.2 90.7 1-3 3-4
Big Ten Averages 109.0 107.5 108.5 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Marshall 95.1 97.7 96.2 96.4 3-1 5-2
Florida Atlantic 95.2 96.0 95.6 95.6 1-2 3-4
Middle Tennessee 91.3 92.7 92.2 92.1 3-1 4-3
Florida Int’l. 89.3 93.2 89.8 90.8 3-0 5-2
Old Dominion 82.3 85.7 82.0 83.4 1-4 2-6
W. Kentucky 80.4 83.4 81.1 81.6 0-3 1-6
Charlotte 77.5 79.9 78.0 78.5 2-2 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.1 101.5 99.9 100.1 2-2 6-2
U A B 95.7 98.3 96.6 96.9 4-0 6-1
Louisiana Tech 92.9 95.3 94.0 94.0 3-1 5-2
Southern Miss. 84.4 87.6 85.0 85.7 2-1 3-3
U T S A 77.2 81.2 77.8 78.8 2-2 3-5
U T E P 72.7 75.9 72.5 73.7 0-3 0-7
Rice 66.2 68.8 64.6 66.6 0-4 1-7
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.1 86.7
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.8 122.0 123.8 123.5 x 7-0
Army 103.9 104.6 104.1 104.2 x 5-2
BYU 100.4 100.9 101.0 100.7 x 4-3
Liberty 81.4 80.6 81.6 81.2 x 4-3
Massachusetts 80.3 82.2 81.0 81.2 x 2-6
N. Mexico St. 72.9 74.7 73.0 73.5 x 2-6
Indep. Averages 93.9 94.2 94.1 94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.0 101.0 100.1 100.0 4-0 7-1
Miami (O) 93.8 95.5 96.1 95.1 3-1 3-5
Ohio U 94.1 95.3 94.8 94.7 2-1 4-3
Akron 90.1 91.3 90.3 90.6 1-2 3-3
Kent St. 78.7 79.9 78.6 79.1 0-4 1-7
Bowling Green 78.7 79.0 78.7 78.8 0-4 1-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 95.5 96.7 95.3 95.8 1-2 3-4
Eastern Michigan 94.9 96.4 95.5 95.6 2-3 4-4
Northern Illinois 95.2 95.9 95.0 95.4 4-0 4-3
Western Michigan 93.5 95.2 94.5 94.4 4-0 6-2
Central Michigan 83.0 85.3 83.2 83.8 0-4 1-7
Ball St. 83.1 85.3 82.9 83.8 2-2 3-5
MAC Averages 90.0 91.4 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 109.7 109.1 109.8 109.5 3-1 5-2
Utah St. 107.6 108.8 108.8 108.4 3-0 6-1
Air Force 95.1 95.7 95.2 95.3 1-3 3-4
Wyoming 94.5 94.5 94.1 94.3 0-4 2-6
New Mexico 87.2 88.5 87.1 87.6 1-2 3-4
Colorado St. 84.5 85.3 84.4 84.7 2-2 3-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 112.4 111.7 112.9 112.4 3-0 6-1
San Diego St. 100.0 100.1 100.6 100.2 3-0 6-1
Nevada 93.3 93.3 93.4 93.3 2-2 4-4
U N L V 83.4 84.8 83.7 84.0 0-3 2-5
Hawaii 81.0 82.7 79.9 81.2 3-1 6-3
San Jose St. 77.0 77.8 75.4 76.7 0-3 0-7
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 122.8 120.9 123.9 122.5 4-1 6-2
Stanford 115.6 113.1 115.8 114.8 3-1 5-2
Oregon 112.2 112.0 112.8 112.3 2-2 5-2
Washington St. 111.1 110.2 110.7 110.7 3-1 6-1
California 106.4 104.0 105.9 105.4 1-3 4-3
Oregon St. 83.6 81.1 81.7 82.1 0-4 1-6
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.3 114.6 117.1 116.0 3-2 5-2
U S C 109.5 108.1 109.1 108.9 3-2 4-3
Arizona St. 107.7 106.2 107.1 107.0 1-3 3-4
Colorado 104.3 105.3 105.4 105.0 2-2 5-2
Arizona 100.6 98.9 100.7 100.0 2-3 3-5
U C L A 99.5 99.2 97.1 98.6 2-2 2-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.1 107.3 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.1 125.0 128.9 127.3 4-1 6-1
Missouri 116.4 114.9 117.6 116.3 0-3 4-3
Florida 114.9 113.3 115.8 114.6 4-1 6-1
Kentucky 114.4 113.4 114.2 114.0 4-1 6-1
S. Carolina 112.5 111.3 112.1 112.0 2-3 3-3
Vanderbilt 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.1 0-4 3-5
Tennessee 99.2 99.6 98.7 99.2 1-3 3-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.2 138.2 141.6 140.0 5-0 8-0
L S U 119.8 119.4 121.1 120.1 4-1 7-1
Mississippi St. 118.4 116.1 119.0 117.9 1-3 4-3
Auburn 115.2 114.0 116.8 115.3 2-3 5-3
Texas A&M 114.5 113.2 114.7 114.1 3-1 5-2
Ole Miss 103.3 102.8 103.6 103.2 1-3 5-3
Arkansas 101.0 98.4 99.9 99.8 0-4 2-6
SEC Averages 114.2 112.9 114.6 113.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 100.4 102.2 102.0 101.5 3-0 5-1
Troy 90.8 92.1 92.1 91.7 3-0 5-2
Georgia Southern 89.1 90.9 89.8 89.9 3-0 6-1
Georgia St. 78.9 80.8 79.5 79.7 1-2 2-5
Coastal Carolina 78.3 80.8 78.9 79.3 1-2 4-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.0 88.4 88.5 88.0 1-2 4-3
Louisiana 82.1 84.3 83.3 83.2 1-2 3-4
UL-Monroe 82.0 82.3 82.4 82.3 2-2 4-4
South Alabama 76.6 78.5 77.2 77.4 1-2 2-5
Texas State 71.6 74.4 71.5 72.5 0-4 1-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.7 85.5 84.5 84.6

The Conferences Rated

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.2 112.9 114.6 113.9
2 ACC 110.1 108.9 109.5 109.5
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.0 107.5 108.5 108.4
5 P-12 107.5 106.1 107.3 107.0
6 AAC 95.1 95.7 95.0 95.3
7 IND 93.9 94.2 94.1 94.1
8 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
9 MAC 90.0 91.4 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.1 86.7
11 SUN 83.7 85.5 84.5 84.6

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Fresno St.
4 San Diego St.
5 Houston

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. Louisiana Tech
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Utah St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois UL-Monroe
New Orleans CUSA SBC Southern Miss. Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Memphis Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large [Middle Tennessee] [Coastal Carolina]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Western Michigan Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Cincinnati [Colorado]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Buffalo Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA North Texas [BYU]
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Toledo] Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Duke [Troy]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Mississippi St.
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Washington
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Michigan Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Utah
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Purdue LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Iowa Fresno St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Clemson Notre Dame
Orange Alabama Texas
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Key Games This Week

There may not be as many marquee games this week as there were last week, but because the season is now past the halfway mark, regular games begin to have more meaning as teams with no championship hopes look to secure bowl bids.

There are a number of games where the winner might greatly improve bowl chances and that could be bowl elimination games for the loser.  Let’s take a quick look at some excellent games on this week’s schedule.

First, on Thursday night, you get five different games, and there is no World Series game, as the teams will travel across the land that day.

Thursday

Western Michigan vs. Toledo: The Broncos are now the favorite to win the West Division and maybe run the table the rest of the way, while Toledo is looking like it could be team #78 out of 78 bowl teams.  The MAC looks like it will have six bowl eligible teams, but five will only get bowl bids.  Toledo and Ohio may be competing for that fifth spot.

Ohio U vs. Ball St.: This is the other half of the MAC equation.  If the Bobcats falter in this game, then they are looking at 5-7.  It’s a must-win game for Ball St., but the schedule does not give them enough winnable games in November to recover from 3-5 to 6-6.

Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian St.: The Sun Belt East Division title may be decided Thursday night.  After trying the more conventional style of play with total failure, GSU has gone back to what worked for them for many years–the spread triple option, and it is working.  Appy State enters this game looking like a team that still holds out hope for a Peach Bowl bid if UCF, USF, Houston, and Fresno State lose games down the stretch and they run the table.  This may be the best game of the night and one you will want to watch.

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech is running out of time to get to six wins with a closing stretch of games against Miami, Virginia, and Georgia.  If Paul Johnson’s team is to finish 3-2, it almost has to include an upset win here.  Virginia Tech finishes with four home games in their final five, and the Hokies have the inside track to the Coastal Division flag.

West Virginia vs. Baylor: West Virginia’s playoff chances probably ended with the loss to Iowa St., but if the Mountaineers run the table, a Sugar Bowl bid is likely their reward.  Baylor needs two wins in their final five games to return to a bowl after a brief absence, and to pull off the trick, the Bears are going to have to upset two teams, because they will be underdogs in all five games.

Friday

Boston College vs. Miami (Fla.): Both teams are still alive for the Camping World bid, but most likely, these two are competing for one of the #3 priority bowls.

Minnesota vs. Indiana: This is a pure bowl elimination game.  The winner stays alive, and the loser is done.

UCLA vs. Utah: The Bruins have won back-to-back games after starting 0-5.  It’s been done before, where a team loses multiple games to start the season and comes back to earn a bowl bid.  A couple years ago, Miami of Ohio started 0-6 and finished 6-6.  Can Chip Kelly work his magic?  If UCLA beats Utah, the Bruins would move into a first place tie in the Pac-12 South.  Of course, if Utah wins, the Utes make a big move forward toward winning the South.  Stay up late and watch this game.

Saturday

Syracuse vs. North Carolina St: After the Wolf Pack’s drubbing at the hands of Clemson, they have no room for error left in the remaining part of their schedule if they want to contend for a New Year’s Six Bowl game.  Not having the West Virginia game on their schedule, they must run the table and finish 11-1.  Syracuse is one win away from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.  This game should be interesting.

Pittsburgh vs. Duke: Pitt has to win this game, or it’s no bowl game for the Panthers in 2018.  Duke is out of the ACC Coastal Division title race, but they need just one more win to become bowl eligible.

Northwestern vs. Wisconsin: Four of the seven teams in the Big Ten West Division have one conference loss, and these are two of them.  Neither team is playing as well as predicted this year, as they tend to win ugly.  Northwestern has been forced to come from behind two weeks in a row, including their most previous game against Rutgers.  This was the closest game for the Badgers last year when they ran the table to the Big Ten Championship Game, and it should be close and low-scoring this year.

Eastern Michigan vs. Army: What?  You say this game is a nothing game?  Think again.  These are two teams that will still be playing after December 15.  Army has a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 1996.  EMU needs to win three more games to clinch its second winning season in the last three years.  Expect the scoreboard to get a lot of action in this one.

Nevada vs. San Diego St.: San Diego State barely beat winless San Jose State, while Nevada won big at Hawaii.  This game looks more like a tossup now than it did a couple weeks ago.  SDSU is still in the Mountain West West Division race with Fresno St., but the Aztecs are looking like a runner-up at the moment.

Stanford vs. Washington St.: The Pirate is not a PiRate, but Mike Leach has done an amazing job in Pullman.  This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Cougars, but after beating Oregon, Washington State is a co-favorite to win the Pac-12 North.  One of the other two co-favorites is their opponent Saturday, and this game will be played on the Farm, where Stanford rarely loses these days.  The winner is in great shape to become the North Division representative in the conference title game.

California vs. Washington: This is an excellent opportunity for the Bears to pick up a statement win at home.  Washington has not been the team the so-called experts thought they would be, and their chances to win the North Division title are no better than their arch-rival’s, and Stanford’s.  A Cal upset comes close to guaranteeing the Golden Bears a 6-6 season and bowl bid.

Florida vs. Georgia: The winner becomes the heavy favorite to get the chance to be embarrassed by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Both teams had an open date to prepare for this game, and both teams’ coaching staffs can prepare excellent game plans.  Expect this game to be low scoring, and the winner may not emerge until the final five to seven minutes.  The winner is the leading contender for the Sugar Bowl, while the loser could still nab a Peach Bowl bid.

Mississippi St. vs. Texas A&M: Texas A&M has lost to Clemson and Alabama, so their 5-2 record is deceiving.  Jimbo Fisher has done an incredible job in his first year at A&M, and if he can lead his team to a road victory, the Aggies might become the favorite to be number two overall in this league and even get into the discussion for a Sugar Bowl bid.

Missouri vs. Kentucky: Kentucky’s incredible 5-0 start hit a snag when the Wildcats’ one-dimensional offense could do nothing against Texas A&M.  Then, it continued to sputter against a Vanderbilt team that is 0-4 in conference play.  Missouri’s defense won’t be able to shut down the Wildcats’ offense, but they still may be able to outscore the ‘Cats and end Kentucky’s chances of winning the SEC East.  Missouri is most likely looking at a Liberty or Music City Bowl bid unless they run the table and finish 9-3.

Oklahoma St. vs. Texas: 2005 was 13 seasons ago.  That’s the last time Oklahoma State failed to earn a bowl bid or end the season with a winning record.  The Cowboys are starting to look like a man on a safari that just put his right foot in quicksand.  A loss at home to Texas will square OSU’s record at 4-4 with some tough November games and most likely a 5-7 record.  Texas now has a legitimate chance to sneak into the Playoffs if the Longhorns can run the table and finish 12-1.  After this game, the toughest remaining games would be home games.  A rematch with the Sooners or possibly with the Mountaineers could get the Longhorns into the #4 position.

Houston vs. South Florida: USF has fiddled its way to a 7-0 record, but if the Bulls start slow this week, they will be 7-1 on Sunday.  Houston is on a roll and almost for sure will win the AAC West Division title.  If they can knock off USF and then beat Central Florida in the Championship Game, the Cougars could be Fiesta-bowl bound.  A loss along the way probably keeps them in an in-state bowl in December.  If USF should put together a four-quarter effort and win this game, then the Bulls are going to gain enough confidence to knock off UCF in Tampa in the regular season finale.

Penn St. vs. Iowa: Three weeks ago, this would have been considered a cinch win for Penn St., but the Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and then Michigan State.  They just barely survived a trip to Indiana.  Iowa has two big road games back-to-back starting with this one and then continuing with Purdue in West Lafayette the following week.  The Hawkeyes look like the best overall team in the Big Ten West, but it will be close to impossible for Kirk Ferentz’s team to win both of the two road games.

Michigan St. vs. Purdue: Michigan St. might play its best game of the year this week.  The team has got to be feeling quite upset after they did absolutely nothing against Michigan.  Purdue is going to bounce somewhat after pulling off the big win over Ohio State.  Just look at what happened to Iowa last year the week after they slaughtered Ohio State; Wisconsin slaughtered them.  We don’t think Sparty  can slaughter any Big Ten team remaining on their schedule, and that includes a home game with Rutgers.  But, they have just enough talent and a huge chip on their shoulders, so this game should be much closer than expected.

Louisiana vs. Arkansas St.: The Sun Belt West Division is totally up for grabs entering the last five weeks of the regular season, as four of the five teams have two conference losses.  The winner of this game takes a giant leg up on the rest of the contenders and also comes very close to cinching bowl eligibility.

Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech: Believe it or not, but both teams still have a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game as the number two seed.  This is a contrast of two coaches on the rise for different reasons.  Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is moving up to the top tier of the coaching pyramid for the next big-time opening.  He could be coaching at a national power in the next couple of years.  Kliff Kingsbury was almost one foot out the door in Lubbock last month, but wins over TCU and Oklahoma State have him back on somewhat solid ground, as the Red Raiders need just one more win to clinch a bowl bid.

Air Force vs. Boise St.: The Falcons need to go 3-2 in to become bowl eligible, and their schedule is sneaky and tricky the rest of the way.  The two hardest remaining games are this one and the next one at Army.  Losses in both games means AFA would have to win their last three to become bowl eligible.  Boise State has an uphill climb to make the MWC Championship Game, as they are a game behind Utah State, and they must still play Fresno State.  A loss here gives the Mountain Division title to Utah State.

Florida St. vs. Clemson: This game has such a history, but history is probably all Florida State fans can hold onto in this game.  Clemson should win by double digits in this one, but stranger things have happened.  Clemson has lost games as big favorites the prior two years, and this looks like a trap game.  The Seminoles must upset somebody in order to become bowl eligible.

Fresno St. vs. Hawaii: This game won’t end until the wee hours of the morning on the East Coast, so a lot of the Eastern elite press will not give it much notice.  However, you can stay up and watch it on ESPN2.  Fresno State is like a horse with a great closing run that is sitting 7 lengths off the pace in a Stakes race but has been on the rail saving ground since the start.  The Bulldogs lost early at Minnesota and have a win at UCLA.  They sit at 6-1, and there isn’t an opponent left on the schedule they cannot beat.  This race is shaping up so that Jeff Tedford’s team could go 12-1.  Now, it is up to those speed horses up front to fall back to the pack.  If USF, UCF, and Houston lose another game this year and FSU wins out, then the Bulldogs should earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.  Hawaii should not give Fresno much of a challenge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:06 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday October 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Appalachian St. -6.3 -6.6 -6.1

 

Thursday October 11
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Texas Tech 7.5 7.8 7.6
Texas St. Georgia Southern -17.3 -15.9 -18.5

 

Friday October 12
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulsa South Florida -4.8 -8.0 -4.8
Utah Arizona 15.0 14.9 15.3
San Diego St. Air Force 10.9 10.7 12.2

 

Saturday October 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Louisville 22.4 20.0 23.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -9.9 -8.1 -10.5
Eastern Michigan Toledo -1.7 -1.5 -0.8
South Carolina Texas A&M 1.7 2.0 1.5
Coastal Carolina Louisiana-Monroe 2.3 5.2 2.6
Illinois Purdue -11.6 -10.2 -12.1
Central Michigan Ball St. 3.8 4.1 4.6
Georgia Tech Duke 1.4 2.7 1.7
Maryland Rutgers 22.8 22.3 23.8
North Carolina Virginia Tech -11.1 -11.3 -11.7
Charlotte Western Kentucky -7.0 -8.1 -8.3
East Carolina Houston -16.9 -17.7 -17.5
Buffalo Akron 8.0 8.9 8.6
Old Dominion Marshall -6.6 -5.5 -7.8
Florida Int’l. Middle Tennessee 0.6 3.4 0.2
Miami (O) Kent St. 15.2 15.8 18.0
Utah St. UNLV 23.9 23.7 24.8
Colorado St. New Mexico -1.5 -2.2 -1.7
Liberty Troy -9.3 -11.8 -10.8
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 28.3 26.1 28.3
USC Colorado 8.6 5.4 6.6
San Jose St. Army -21.7 -21.5 -23.7
Oregon Washington -7.7 -5.5 -8.5
Northern Illinois Ohio U 5.3 5.0 4.7
UTSA Louisiana Tech -10.9 -8.8 -11.3
Bowling Green Western Michigan -9.1 -10.9 -10.2
Arkansas Ole Miss -0.3 -2.3 -1.5
Michigan Wisconsin 9.6 10.9 10.3
Ohio St. Minnesota 29.2 27.9 30.0
Navy Temple -8.5 -6.3 -10.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -0.5 -1.2 -0.2
North Texas Southern Miss. 17.8 17.1 17.9
Northwestern Nebraska 20.1 19.8 22.3
Indiana Iowa -11.4 -10.1 -10.9
Memphis Central Florida -10.2 -8.5 -9.9
Auburn Tennessee 24.5 22.7 26.8
Texas Baylor 13.3 13.9 13.4
Alabama Missouri 28.3 27.8 28.9
Vanderbilt Florida -11.7 -9.6 -12.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. -5.7 -5.4 -6.8
Rice UAB -20.8 -20.6 -23.2
LSU Georgia -13.1 -9.8 -13.1
Louisiana New Mexico St. 5.7 5.8 6.3
Penn St. Michigan St. 10.3 9.7 11.4
BYU Hawaii 21.5 19.7 23.0
California UCLA 13.8 11.5 15.6
Fresno St. Wyoming 19.1 18.1 20.1
Nevada Boise St. -17.5 -17.1 -18.3

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
South Alabama Alabama St. 29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9
2 Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9
3 Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2
5 Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5
6 Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7
7 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
8 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
9 Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0
10 Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0
11 Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3
12 Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5
13 Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1
14 Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6
15 Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3
16 L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2
17 Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6
18 Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
19 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
20 N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0
21 West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9
22 Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9
23 Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8
24 Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5
25 Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5
26 Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4
27 Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3
28 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
29 Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2
30 Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7
31 T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4
32 Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3
33 Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1
34 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0
35 Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3
36 Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1
37 Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4
38 Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3
39 Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9
40 U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8
41 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
42 Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8
43 Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0
45 Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0
46 Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8
47 California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3
48 Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0
49 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
50 Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0
51 Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6
52 San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2
53 Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2
54 Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8
55 Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8
56 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7
57 Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1
58 Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1
59 Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9
60 Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8
61 Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7
62 N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6
63 Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5
64 BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2
65 Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0
66 Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7
67 South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4
68 Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4
69 Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2
70 Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5
71 N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4
72 Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9
73 Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8
74 Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7
75 Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4
76 Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6
77 U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2
79 Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0
80 Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7
81 Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6
82 Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3
83 Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2
85 Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9
86 Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8
87 Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6
88 U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3
89 Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2
90 Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1
91 Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0
92 Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0
93 Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7
94 Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3
95 Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0
96 SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3
97 Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1
98 Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8
99 Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7
100 Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6
101 Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1
102 New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3
103 Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4
104 Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0
105 U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8
106 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6
107 Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2
108 Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8
109 Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5
110 Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5
111 Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1
112 Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0
113 East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8
114 Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8
115 U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9
116 Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4
117 Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0
118 Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
119 Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9
120 Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5
121 UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2
122 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1
123 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0
124 N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0
125 San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0
126 Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3
127 Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9
128 U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9
129 Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1
130 Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3 2-0 5-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7 2-0 3-3
South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4 1-0 5-0
Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8 0-2 2-3
Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 1-0 4-1
Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8 1-2 4-2
Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0 1-1 2-3
SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6 0-2 1-4
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5 1-1 4-2
Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7 0-3 2-4
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5 2-0 5-1
Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2 0-1 4-1
Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7 2-0 3-2
Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1 1-2 3-3
Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0 1-1 3-2
Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0 2-1 3-3
N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4 1-1 1-3
ACC Averages 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0 2-1 5-1
West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9 3-0 5-0
Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3 3-0 5-1
T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4 1-1 3-2
Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1 1-2 4-2
Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3 1-2 2-3
Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1 0-3 2-4
Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8 2-1 4-2
Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2 3-0 6-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 3-0 5-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6 2-1 3-2
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-1 3-2
Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7 1-2 4-2
Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1 2-0 4-1
Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5 1-1 4-1
Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3 2-1 2-3
Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1 0-2 3-2
Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6 0-3 0-5
Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9 1-1 3-2
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4 1-1 3-3
Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6 1-1 3-2
Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7 2-0 3-2
Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1 1-0 3-2
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5 0-3 1-5
Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6 1-1 5-1
Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2 1-1 3-2
U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3 2-0 4-1
Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0 1-0 2-2
U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9 2-0 3-3
U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9 0-2 0-6
Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3 0-2 1-5
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5 x 6-0
Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8 x 3-2
BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2 x 3-3
Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1 x 2-5
Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5 x 2-3
N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0 x 2-4
Independents Averages 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8 2-0 5-1
Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2 1-0 3-2
Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0 2-1 2-4
Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3 0-1 2-2
Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4 0-2 1-5
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1 0-2 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7 1-0 3-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2 3-0 3-3
Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8 0-3 2-4
Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0 2-0 4-2
Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4 0-2 1-5
Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8 1-1 2-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3 1-1 3-2
Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0 1-0 4-1
Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0 0-2 2-3
Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3 0-2 2-4
New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3 1-0 3-2
Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4 1-0 4-1
San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2 1-0 4-1
Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7 1-1 3-3
U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8 0-1 2-3
Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8 3-0 6-1
San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0 0-2 0-5
MWC Averages 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7 3-0 5-1
Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 2-1 5-1
California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3 0-2 3-2
Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8 1-2 3-2
U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0 2-0 5-0
Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7 2-1 3-3
U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6 0-2 0-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2 4-0 6-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6 0-2 3-2
Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 3-1 5-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-1 5-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0 2-2 3-2
Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5 0-2 3-3
Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9 3-0 6-0
Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0 1-2 4-2
Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2 2-1 5-1
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 2-1 4-2
Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6 0-2 4-2
Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2 0-3 1-5
SEC Averages 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1 3-0 5-1
Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8 2-0 4-1
Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0 1-1 3-2
Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1 0-1 3-2
Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9 1-1 2-3
UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2 0-2 2-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0 1-2 1-5
Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1 0-2 1-4
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
2 ACC 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
8 MWC 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Cincinnati
4 Fresno St.
5 San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Atlantic Louisiana
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan UAB
Frisco AAC MAC [BYU] Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC [Army] [Marshall]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Utah]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona St.] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Utah St.] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Nevada]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Baylor Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Ohio St. Clemson
Orange Alabama Notre Dame
National Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

October 3, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 4-8, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:44 am

Another mediocre week by the PiRate Rating selections was offset by another spectacular week by three of our five Land Sharps.

Last week, our official picks went 4-7, to bring the total to date to 22-23-1.  This took our minor profit for the season to a minor loss of 5.7% Return on Investment.  We will include some Money Line parlays that give us better than +150 odds this week in an attempt to get back into the black.  In the past, we have done well when playing 4-game parlays that give us better than +150 odds, but we tend to cash in big on these parlays in November.  Hopefully, October will be nice to us.

As for the Land Sharps, Buckeye Michelle, Friday Dog 13, and Cal Gal Tiffany continue to draw the ire of the kind people in the State of Nevada.  If they keep up this streak, they will not be allowed to patronize the books (Note–every pick on this site is done strictly for entertainment purposes only, so they really have no connection with any books).

Dean615 and Stewed Meat have treaded water so far, as both as exactly .500 in their picks.  In Stewed’s defense, these are this Land Sharp’s “B” picks.  Stewed is a real professional, and Stewed A’s picks last week (college and NFL) went 8-3 including a Parlay win that returned 6 to 1 odds for a big profit.

This week, our Land Sharps have picked between 5 and 9 games.  Because we try not to do the same thing, and we include the NFL in our official picks, we are going with 9 selections–3 vs. spreads, 4, 10-point teasers, and 2 Money Line Parlays.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks 

Margins

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Akron Miami (O) 3 Akron
Baltimore Cleveland 3 Baltimore
San Francisco Arizona 3.5 San Francisco

10-Point Teasers (3-team parlays)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Louisville Georgia Tech 6.5 Georgia Tech
Boston College North Carolina St. 5.5 North Carolina St.
LSU Florida 13 Florida

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Alabama Arkansas 24 Alabama
Clemson Wake Forest 7.5 Clemson
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 2.5 Miami (Fla.)

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
South Florida Massachusetts 4 South Florida
Georgia Southern South Alabama 3.5 Georgia Southern
Ole Miss Louisiana-Monroe 2.5 Ole Miss

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Central Florida SMU 14 Central Florida
Washington St. Oregon St. 6.5 Washington St.
Fresno St. Nevada 2 Fresno St.

 

Money Line Parlays

4 Teams at +168

Winner Loser
North Carolina St. Boston College
Troy Georgia St.
UNLV New Mexico
Miami (Fla.) Florida St.

 

4 Teams at +174

Winner Loser
Liberty New Mexico St.
South Florida Massachusetts
Buffalo Central Michigan
Georgia Southern South Alabama

 

The Land Sharps

Buckeye Michelle

Year to Date: 14-6  70.0%, 37.0% Return on Investment

Connecticut +36 vs. Memphis

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

Minnesota +7.5 vs. Iowa

Air Force +3.5 vs. Navy

UAB +9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Friday Dog 13

Year to Date: 11-5 68.8%, 34.4% Return on Investment

Marshall -6 vs. Middle Tennessee

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Ole Miss -22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

West Virginia -28.5 vs. Kansas

Central Florida -24 vs. SMU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

South Florida -4 vs. Massachusetts

Syracuse -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

Year to Date: 17-9  65.4%, 27.3% Return on Investment

Utah St. +3 vs. BYU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida

Florida St. +13 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Southern -13.5 vs. South Alabama

Auburn -3 vs. Mississippi St.

Georgia -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Stewed Meat

Year to Date: 11-11  50.0%, -5% Return on Investment

Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Louisville

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

Florida +3 vs. LSU

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Colorado -2.5 vs. Arizona St.

Houston & Tulsa UNDER 70.5

Michigan & Maryland UNDER 49

 

Dean615

Year to Date: 7-7  50.0%, -5.0% Return on Investment

Notre Dame -6 vs. Virginia Tech

Wisconsin -17.5 vs. Nebraska

Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Kentucky

Florida & LSU UNDER 44.5

Notre Dame & Virginia Tech OVER 56.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 5

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:18 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday September 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina 18.6 18.2 19.1

 

Friday September 28
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulane Memphis -7.4 -9.6 -9.0
Colorado UCLA 8.0 9.7 12.2

 

Saturday September 29
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Army 2.8 4.8 4.3
Connecticut Cincinnati -13.1 -14.6 -14.7
Michigan St. Central Michigan 40.2 35.2 39.4
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 0.9 1.6 2.1
Ball St. Kent St. 3.5 4.9 3.3
Wake Forest Rice 39.5 34.0 38.3
East Carolina Old Dominion 5.3 1.1 5.3
Georgia Tech Bowling Green 28.6 27.3 27.8
Boston College Temple 20.7 17.8 20.0
Clemson Syracuse 24.2 22.8 25.9
Appalachian St. South Alabama 16.5 15.9 16.8
Duke Virginia Tech 6.6 4.7 6.3
Georgia St. UL-Monroe -8.1 -5.2 -7.9
Ohio U Massachusetts 13.2 12.1 12.3
Central Florida Pittsburgh 14.1 14.5 15.1
Kentucky South Carolina 2.2 2.0 2.1
North Carolina St. Virginia 12.8 12.0 13.4
Rutgers Indiana -9.2 -9.3 -11.0
Air Force Nevada 6.5 7.0 6.7
Washington St. Utah 0.7 1.4 -1.3
Arizona St. Oregon St. 24.8 25.8 26.3
Washington BYU 26.1 23.1 27.3
Fresno St. Toledo 16.0 12.7 15.8
Miami (O) Western Michigan -1.3 -1.4 0.3
Louisville Florida St. -4.9 -4.1 -5.2
Penn St. Ohio St. -2.6 -3.2 -2.9
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -0.4 -0.4 -2.0
Georgia Tennessee 39.3 35.0 41.7
New Mexico Liberty 11.6 15.0 11.9
Auburn Southern Miss. 41.8 37.3 43.5
TCU Iowa St. 6.3 7.0 5.6
Alabama Louisiana 63.2 59.2 64.1
Oklahoma Baylor 18.7 19.4 19.8
UTSA UTEP 12.3 13.7 13.8
Nebraska Purdue -9.5 -9.3 -11.5
Kansas St. Texas -6.4 -6.4 -6.9
Texas Tech West Virginia -1.9 -2.5 -2.9
North Texas Louisiana Tech 13.6 13.8 13.4
UAB Charlotte 17.0 17.0 17.1
Kansas Oklahoma St. -10.3 -9.6 -12.7
Western Kentucky Marshall -8.4 -7.8 -8.3
Mississippi St. Florida 11.2 10.4 11.1
LSU Ole Miss 13.3 13.8 13.9
Troy Coastal Carolina 14.8 13.0 15.8
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic -6.5 -5.6 -6.0
Arizona USC -3.6 -3.4 -2.5
Wyoming Boise St. -14.0 -13.3 -14.7
San Jose St. Hawaii 1.6 0.1 1.0
Notre Dame Stanford 4.4 3.5 2.2
Northwestern Michigan -12.4 -13.2 -13.1
Texas A&M Arkansas 17.6 19.0 19.7
California Oregon 1.6 -1.5 0.6

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 27.9
SMU Houston Baptist 34.0
Florida Int’l. Ark.-Pine Bluff 43.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9
2 Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1
3 Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6
4 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
5 Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3
6 Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1
7 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
8 Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8
9 Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5
10 Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0
11 Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8
12 Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7
13 Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2
14 Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
15 Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8
16 Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0
17 Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6
18 Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3
19 L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1
20 Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9
21 Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7
22 S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5
23 N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5
24 West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4
25 Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2
26 Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6
27 Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2
28 T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2
29 Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1
30 Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9
31 Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9
32 Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8
33 Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4
34 Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1
35 Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7
36 Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9
37 Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7
38 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
39 Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4
40 Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3
41 U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0
42 Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9
43 Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7
44 Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7
45 Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6
46 N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7
47 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
48 Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2
49 Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7
50 Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3
51 Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8
52 Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7
53 Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2
55 Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9
56 Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9
57 BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8
58 Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4
59 Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3
60 Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9
61 Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7
62 Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9
63 Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4
64 N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2
65 San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1
67 Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9
68 South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6
69 Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5
70 Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4
71 Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4
72 Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1
73 Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1
74 Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9
75 Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7
76 Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4
77 Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0
78 Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8
79 Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4
80 U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4
81 Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2
82 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2
83 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0
84 Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3
85 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1
86 Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9
87 Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5
88 Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4
89 Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2
92 Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2
93 SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2
94 Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0
95 Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7
96 U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3
97 Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3
98 U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9
99 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9
100 Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8
103 Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1
104 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8
105 UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4
106 East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2
107 Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2
108 W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1
109 Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1
110 Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8
111 Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0
113 South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0
114 Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9
115 Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3
116 Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1
117 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
118 Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7
119 Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7
120 U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5
121 Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8
122 Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5
123 San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4
124 Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3
125 Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8
126 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5
127 Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4
128 Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2 1-0 3-0
South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6 1-0 4-0
Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1 1-0 2-2
Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9 0-0 4-0
East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2 0-1 1-2
Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7 0-1 3-1
Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9 0-0 3-1
Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0 1-1 2-2
Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0 0-0 1-3
SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2 1-0 1-3
Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6 1-0 4-0
Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8 0-0 3-1
Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0 0-0 4-0
Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1 1-0 2-1
Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2 1-0 4-0
West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2 0-1 3-1
T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2 0-1 2-2
Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9 1-0 3-1
Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9 0-1 1-2
Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9 1-0 3-1
Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9 1-0 3-1
Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3 0-1 2-2
Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4 0-1 2-2
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 1-0 4-0
Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1 1-0 3-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-0 4-0
Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5 1-0 2-1
Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1 0-1 3-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 1-0 3-1
Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7 1-0 1-2
Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6 0-1 1-3
Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5 0-1 0-3
Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5 0-0 2-2
Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-1
Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7 1-0 2-2
Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9 0-0 1-2
W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-3
Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8 0-2 1-3
Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4 1-0 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7 0-0 4-0
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2 0-0 2-1
U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0 1-0 2-1
U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5 0-0 1-3
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-1 1-3
U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2 0-0 0-4
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0 x 4-0
BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8 x 3-1
Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9 x 2-2
Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8 x 2-3
Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5 x 1-2
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5 x 1-4
Indep. Averages 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4 1-0 4-0
Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3 0-0 1-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-0 1-3
Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3 0-1 1-3
Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4 0-0 2-1
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0 1-0 1-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1 0-1 2-2
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 0-0 2-2
Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2 0-1 1-3
Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1 0-0 1-3
MAC Averages 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4 0-1 1-2
New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9 0-0 3-1
U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3 0-0 2-2
Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 4-1
San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3 2-0 3-1
Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7 2-0 4-0
Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4 0-1 3-1
Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4 0-1 3-1
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-3
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0 1-1 2-2
Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7 0-1 2-2
Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4 0-0 3-0
Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9 1-0 2-2
U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1 2-0 4-0
Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3 0-1 3-1
S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5 1-1 2-1
Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6 2-0 4-0
Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9 1-1 3-1
Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9 0-1 2-2
Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4 0-1 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9 2-0 4-0
Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8 1-1 3-1
Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8 0-1 3-1
L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1 1-0 4-0
Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9 0-1 2-2
Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4 0-1 3-1
Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1 0-1 1-3
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4 0-0 2-1
Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0 0-0 3-1
UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4 0-1 2-2
South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0 1-0 1-3
Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8 0-1 1-2
Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

 

The Conference Ratings

 

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
5 P-12 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
7 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
8 IND 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
9 MAC 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida

2. South Florida

3. North Texas

4. Cincinnati

5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Arkansas St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Washington St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Buffalo Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC [UNLV] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati UAB
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Army]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 [Utah] Iowa St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Atlantic Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Wyoming] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Akron] [BYU]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virgnia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Tech Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. LSU
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Florida
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Georgia Southern
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma Oregon
Belk ACC SEC Duke Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Notre Dame Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina St. Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota California
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa USC
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Syracuse South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Stanford Ohio St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Texas A&M
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Penn St.
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Best TV Games This Week

All Game Times, Eastern Daylight

Games in Red Are Top 3 of the Day

Time Home Team Visitor Network
12:00 PM Clemson Syracuse ABC
12:00 PM Buffalo Army CBSSN
12:00 PM Texas Tech West Virginia ESPN2
12:20 PM North Carolina St. Virginia ACCN
3:30 PM Kansas St. Texas FS1
4:30 PM Northwestern Michigan Fox
6:00 PM Mississippi St. Florida ESPN
6:00 PM Washington St. Utah Pac-12
7:00 PM Duke Virginia Tech ESPN2
7:30 PM Penn St. Ohio St. ABC
7:30 PM Notre Dame Stanford NBC
7:30 PM Kentucky South Carolina SEC
9:15 PM LSU Ole Miss ESPN
10:30 PM Fresno St. Toledo ESPNU
10:30 PM California Oregon FS1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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