| Home | Visitor | Spread |
| American | Bucknell | 7.6 |
| Auburn | Georgia | 11.4 |
| Boston U. | Holy Cross | 7.8 |
| Bradley | Southern Illinois | 5.3 |
| Bryant | Maine | 7.1 |
| Cal Baptist | Southern Utah | -0.4 |
| Campbell | USC Upstate | 4.4 |
| Charleston Southern | Gardner-Webb | -3.2 |
| Cincinnati | Tulsa | 16.3 |
| Drake | Northern Iowa | 9.1 |
| East Tennessee St. | Wofford | -0.6 |
| Evansville | Indiana St. | -12.3 |
| Florida | Tennessee | -7.0 |
| Furman | Chattanooga | 7.0 |
| George Mason | Massachusetts | 3.8 |
| Georgetown | Creighton | -14.0 |
| Illinois St. | Illinois Chicago | 5.1 |
| La Salle | George Washington | -0.3 |
| Lafayette | Navy | 0.5 |
| Lehigh | Army | 1.1 |
| Louisville | Georgia Tech | -3.2 |
| Marquette | Villanova | 10.6 |
| Missouri | LSU | 10.0 |
| Missouri St. | Valparaiso | 10.0 |
| Murray St. | Belmont | 0.1 |
| New Mexico St. | Stephen F. Austin | -1.2 |
| NJIT | New Hampshire | -0.7 |
| North Carolina | Pittsburgh | 8.3 |
| North Carolina St. | Florida St. | 11.8 |
| Oklahoma | Oklahoma St. | 1.9 |
| Presbyterian | Radford | -7.9 |
| Purdue | Penn St. | 9.6 |
| Richmond | St. Bonaventure | 5.0 |
| Rutgers | Minnesota | 17.2 |
| Saint Joseph’s | Rhode Island | 4.1 |
| Seattle | Abilene Christian | 8.0 |
| South Florida | East Carolina | 7.0 |
| St. John’s | Seton Hall | 0.8 |
| Tulane | SMU | 9.4 |
| UMass Lowell | Albany | 13.9 |
| UMBC | Binghamton | 8.8 |
| UT Arlington | Tarleton St. | -2.9 |
| UT-Rio Grande Valley | Sam Houston | -12.2 |
| Utah St. | New Mexico | 3.4 |
| Western Carolina | Samford | -3.4 |
| Winthrop | Longwood | -2.3 |
| Xavier | Providence | 4.9 |
January 31, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, February 1, 2023
January 25, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 25, 2023
| Home | Visitor | Spread |
| Alabama | Mississippi St. | 14.7 |
| American | Army | 3.3 |
| Auburn | Texas A&M | 6.9 |
| Binghamton | Vermont | -7.0 |
| Boston College | Louisville | 9.1 |
| Bradley | Illinois St. | 13.7 |
| Bucknell | Navy | -1.0 |
| Central Florida | Houston | -8.6 |
| Chattanooga | Wofford | 5.6 |
| Connecticut | Xavier | 7.1 |
| Creighton | St. John’s | 8.3 |
| Duquesne | Loyola (Chi) | 8.0 |
| Evansville | Belmont | -12.7 |
| Florida | South Carolina | 18.3 |
| Furman | Samford | 5.8 |
| Gardner-Webb | USC Upstate | 8.4 |
| George Washington | Saint Joseph’s | 3.5 |
| Hartford | Stonehill College | -5.8 |
| High Point | Campbell | 0.4 |
| Holy Cross | Lehigh | -2.4 |
| Lafayette | Loyola (MD) | 7.9 |
| Maine | UMass Lowell | -5.9 |
| Maryland | Wisconsin | 5.5 |
| Massachusetts | Richmond | -0.7 |
| Mercer | East Tennessee St. | 3.3 |
| Minnesota | Indiana | -11.5 |
| Nebraska | Northwestern | -1.3 |
| New Hampshire | Albany | 6.6 |
| NJIT | UMBC | -4.4 |
| Northern Iowa | Valparaiso | 8.4 |
| Pittsburgh | Wake Forest | 3.2 |
| Providence | Butler | 8.9 |
| Purdue Ft. Wayne | IUPUI | 20.1 |
| Rhode Island | Dayton | -8.8 |
| San Diego St | Utah St. | 5.0 |
| St. Bonaventure | Fordham | 3.4 |
| Stanford | Chicago St. | 16.7 |
| Stephen F. Austin | UT-Rio Grande Valley | 11.8 |
| Temple | South Florida | 5.2 |
| Tennessee | Georgia | 18.5 |
| Texas Tech | West Virginia | 1.2 |
| UNC Asheville | Presbyterian | 11.0 |
| UNC Greensboro | VMI | 15.9 |
| UT Arlington | Cal Baptist | -4.9 |
| VCU | George Mason | 6.6 |
| Western Carolina | The Citadel | 6.3 |
| Wichita St. | Tulane | 0.0 |
| Winthrop | Charleston Southern | 3.3 |
January 18, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 18. 2023
| Home | Visitor | Spread |
| American | Lafayette | 5.1 |
| Army | Bucknell | 5.6 |
| California | Oregon | -7.4 |
| Campbell | Radford | -1.7 |
| Central Arkansas | North Alabama | 0.3 |
| Charleston Southern | UNC Asheville | -2.3 |
| Chattanooga | Furman | 1.2 |
| Colorado St. | San Diego St | -4.9 |
| DePaul | Xavier | -9.1 |
| Drake | Missouri St. | 6.2 |
| East Tennessee St. | Samford | -3.7 |
| Grand Canyon | Utah Tech | 10.9 |
| High Point | Winthrop | 1.3 |
| Holy Cross | Colgate | -12.4 |
| Indiana St. | Bradley | 0.1 |
| Longwood | Gardner Webb | 5.1 |
| Louisville | Pittsburgh | -10.7 |
| Loyola (Chi) | Saint Louis | -7.3 |
| LSU | Auburn | -5.1 |
| Marquette | Providence | 5.7 |
| Missouri | Arkansas | -1.0 |
| Morgan St. | Hartford | 15.6 |
| Navy | Boston U. | 2.8 |
| Nebraska | Ohio St. | -5.5 |
| Northern Iowa | Illinois St. | 6.5 |
| Oklahoma St. | Oklahoma | 2.7 |
| Seton Hall | Connecticut | -4.8 |
| South Florida | Cincinnati | -3.9 |
| St. Bonaventure | Duquesne | -0.4 |
| Temple | East Carolina | 7.7 |
| Texas A&M | Florida | 2.0 |
| Tulsa | SMU | -1.4 |
| UMass Lowell | UMBC | 5.9 |
| USC Upstate | Presbyterian | 5.5 |
| Utah Valley | Abilene Christian | 9.1 |
| Virginia | Virginia Tech | 6.4 |
| West Virginia | TCU | 1.8 |
| Western Carolina | Wofford | -0.7 |
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January 14, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 14, 2023
| Home | Visitor | Spread |
| Alabama | LSU | 15.9 |
| Appalachian St. | Troy | -1.2 |
| Arkansas St. | Southern Miss. | -7.5 |
| Auburn | Mississippi St. | 7.6 |
| Ball St. | Miami (O) | 10.8 |
| Baylor | Oklahoma St. | 5.3 |
| Bellarmine | Florida Gulf Coast | -4.9 |
| Belmont | Northern Iowa | 4.8 |
| Bethune-Cookman | Mississippi Valley St. | 5.8 |
| Binghamton | UMass Lowell | -7.6 |
| Boston College | Wake Forest | -3.6 |
| Boston U. | Army | 2.3 |
| Brown | Princeton | -3.8 |
| BYU | Pepperdine | 10.4 |
| Cal Baptist | Grand Canyon | -2.5 |
| Cal St. Bakersfield | UC San Diego | 2.7 |
| Cal St. Northridge | UC Irvine | -11.6 |
| Campbell | Winthrop | 4.2 |
| Central Connecticut St. | Fairleigh Dickinson | 1.8 |
| Central Michigan | Buffalo | -3.1 |
| Charleston | Elon | 20.6 |
| Charlotte | UTSA | 16.1 |
| Clemson | Duke | -0.5 |
| Colgate | Bucknell | 12.7 |
| Coppin St. | Morgan St. | -0.7 |
| Creighton | Providence | 5.5 |
| Dartmouth | Penn | -5.2 |
| Denver | North Dakota | 4.0 |
| DePaul | Seton Hall | -4.2 |
| Detroit | Robert Morris | 4.9 |
| Drake | Bradley | -0.2 |
| East Tennessee St. | Mercer | 2.6 |
| Eastern Illinois | Little Rock | 1.1 |
| Eastern Kentucky | Stetson | 0.8 |
| Eastern Washington | Idaho | 10.8 |
| Evansville | Valparaiso | -0.8 |
| Florida | Missouri | 4.2 |
| Florida A&M | Arkansas Pine Bluff | -0.3 |
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | 4.7 |
| Florida St. | Virginia | -9.5 |
| Fresno St. | Air Force | 3.1 |
| Furman | UNC Greensboro | 5.0 |
| Gardner Webb | UNC Asheville | 3.6 |
| George Mason | Davidson | 4.7 |
| George Washington | Saint Louis | -4.7 |
| Georgia St. | Coastal Carolina | 0.9 |
| Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh | -1.6 |
| Gonzaga | Portland | 18.5 |
| Green Bay | Northern Kentucky | -10.3 |
| Harvard | Columbia | 1.5 |
| Hawaii | Long Beach St. | 6.0 |
| High Point | Presbyterian | 5.4 |
| Hofstra | Delaware | 7.2 |
| Incarnate Word | Southeastern Louisiana St. | -5.1 |
| Indiana | Wisconsin | 6.2 |
| IUPUI | Cleveland St. | -12.4 |
| Jacksonville St. | Jacksonville | -3.5 |
| James Madison | Georgia Southern | 11.3 |
| Kansas | Iowa St. | 6.8 |
| Kennesaw St. | North Florida | 7.0 |
| La Salle | Fordham | 0.3 |
| Lafayette | Holy Cross | 8.0 |
| Lehigh | American | -3.1 |
| Liberty | Central Arkansas | 20.2 |
| Lipscomb | Austin Peay | 6.4 |
| Longwood | USC Upstate | 11.1 |
| Louisiana Monroe | Texas St. | -3.0 |
| Louisiana Tech | UAB | -4.2 |
| Louisville | North Carolina | -15.6 |
| Loyola (MD) | Navy | -3.7 |
| Loyola Marymount | San Diego | 8.2 |
| Marshall | Old Dominion | 9.8 |
| Maryland Eastern Shore | Delaware St. | 12.5 |
| Massachusetts | Rhode Island | 5.4 |
| McNeese St. | Houston Christian | 7.2 |
| Milwaukee | Wright St. | 1.5 |
| Mississippi | Georgia | 4.3 |
| Montana | Idaho St. | 6.0 |
| Montana St. | Weber St. | 8.0 |
| Morehead St. | Southeast Missouri St. | -0.6 |
| Murray St. | Illinois Chicago | 8.4 |
| New Hampshire | Bryant | -2.9 |
| New Mexico St. | UT Arlington | 10.2 |
| Nicholls St. | Northwestern St. | 2.0 |
| NJIT | Albany | 2.7 |
| Norfolk St. | Howard | 8.2 |
| North Carolina A&T | Stony Brook | 4.8 |
| North Carolina Central | South Carolina St. | 13.1 |
| North Carolina St. | Miami (Fla) | 3.4 |
| Northeastern | Drexel | -1.0 |
| Northern Illinois | Toledo | -9.7 |
| Oakland | Youngstown St. | -5.4 |
| Oklahoma | West Virginia | 2.3 |
| Omaha | North Dakota St. | -0.8 |
| Oral Roberts | St. Thomas | 11.3 |
| Oregon | Arizona | -4.6 |
| Oregon St. | Arizona St. | -10.0 |
| Pacific | Santa Clara | -6.3 |
| Portland St. | Northern Colorado | 5.4 |
| Prairie View | Jackson St. | 4.1 |
| Queens | North Alabama | 7.7 |
| Radford | Charleston Southern | 8.5 |
| Rice | UTEP | 3.3 |
| Sacramento St. | Northern Arizona | 6.2 |
| Saint Joseph’s | Loyola (Chi) | 1.0 |
| Samford | Chattanooga | 1.1 |
| San Diego St. | New Mexico | 7.2 |
| San Francisco | Saint Mary’s | -6.8 |
| SIU Edwardsville | Lindenwood | 12.9 |
| SMU | Cincinnati | -5.8 |
| South Alabama | Louisiana | -0.9 |
| South Carolina | Texas A&M | -8.4 |
| South Dakota | South Dakota St. | -1.5 |
| Southern Illinois | Illinois St. | 9.8 |
| Southern Indiana | UT Martin | 2.5 |
| Southern U. | Grambling | 2.6 |
| Southern Utah | Stephen F. Austin | 3.2 |
| St. Bonaventure | Richmond | -1.3 |
| St. Francis (NY) | Sacred Heart | -1.4 |
| St. Francis (PA) | Long Island | 10.6 |
| Stonehill College | Merrimack | 4.7 |
| Syracuse | Notre Dame | 6.2 |
| Tarleton St. | Abilene Christian | 4.1 |
| TCU | Kansas St. | 2.9 |
| Tennessee | Kentucky | 13.6 |
| Tennessee Tech | Tennessee St. | 2.4 |
| Texas | Texas Tech | 8.7 |
| Texas A&M-CC | New Orleans | 11.1 |
| Texas A&M-Commerce | Lamar | 10.6 |
| Texas Southern | Alcorn St. | 1.6 |
| The Citadel | Western Carolina | -2.1 |
| Towson | Monmouth | 18.3 |
| Tulane | Central Florida | -0.5 |
| UC Davis | Cal St. Fullerton | 3.4 |
| UC Santa Barbara | UC Riverside | 6.0 |
| UCLA | Colorado | 11.4 |
| UMBC | Maine | 7.9 |
| UMKC | Western Illinois | 6.1 |
| UNC Wilmington | William & Mary | 12.3 |
| UNLV | Colorado St. | 6.1 |
| USC | Utah | 2.6 |
| UT Rio Grande Valley | Chicago St. | 3.4 |
| Utah Tech | Sam Houston | -6.3 |
| Utah Valley | Seattle | 5.8 |
| Vanderbilt | Arkansas | -6.4 |
| Washington | California | 9.3 |
| Washington St. | Stanford | 6.7 |
| Western Kentucky | Florida Int’l. | 8.9 |
| Western Michigan | Bowling Green | -0.8 |
| Wichita St. | Tulsa | 11.3 |
| Wofford | VMI | 10.5 |
| Wyoming | Boise St. | -6.1 |
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January 4, 2023
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 4, 2023
| Home | Visitor | Spread |
| Alabama A&M | Mississippi Valley St. | 9.3 |
| Alabama St. | Arkansas Pine Bluff | 3.6 |
| Arkansas | Missouri | 8.0 |
| Baylor | TCU | 4.9 |
| Butler | DePaul | 8.8 |
| Campbell | Gardner Webb | -3.7 |
| Charleston Southern | Longwood | -8.0 |
| Davidson | Loyola (Chi.) | 4.6 |
| Dayton | Saint Joseph’s | 14.9 |
| Duquesne | VCU | 1.4 |
| East Carolina | Central Florida | -7.0 |
| East Tennessee St. | W. Carolina | 5.1 |
| Elon | UNC Wilmington | -11.6 |
| Florida | Texas A&M | 6.8 |
| Furman | The Citadel | 12.0 |
| Georgetown | Villanova | -7.6 |
| Georgia | Auburn | -6.8 |
| Georgia Tech | Miami (Fla.) | -5.4 |
| High Point | UNC Asheville | 1.3 |
| Illinois Chicago | Belmont | -5.1 |
| Illinois St. | Indiana St. | -5.4 |
| Little Rock | Lindenwood | 3.6 |
| Massachusetts | Saint Louis | -2.4 |
| Mercer | Wofford | 1.4 |
| Michigan | Penn St. | 2.8 |
| Missouri St. | Evansville | 15.2 |
| Murray St. | Bradley | -4.7 |
| Nevada | Colorado St. | 5.5 |
| North Carolina | Wake Forest | 10.4 |
| North Carolina A&T | Charleston | -9.3 |
| North Carolina St. | Duke | -2.2 |
| Northwestern | Illinois | -1.0 |
| Oklahoma | Iowa St. | 2.6 |
| Prairie View | Southern | 0.6 |
| Providence | Connecticut | -6.6 |
| Radford | USC Upstate | 9.2 |
| Rhode Island | Fordham | 2.0 |
| Richmond | George Washington | 8.9 |
| Samford | VMI | 12.2 |
| South Florida | Temple | 0.4 |
| Southern Illinois | Drake | 1.4 |
| St. Bonaventure | George Mason | 0.1 |
| Stephen F. Austin | New Mexico St. | 0.7 |
| Texas A&M-CC | Incarnate Word | 12.7 |
| Texas Southern | Grambling | 1.1 |
| Tulane | Tulsa | 12.4 |
| UNC Greensboro | Chattanooga | 1.1 |
| Valparaiso | Northern Iowa | -4.1 |
| Virginia Tech | Clemson | 5.6 |
| Winthrop | Presbyterian | 6.6 |
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November 10, 2022
September 18, 2022
September 8, 2022
PiRate Picks For September 9-10, 2022
Last week, the most important part of our PiRate Picks publication was telling you that a broken clock is still correct twice a day. Please remember this, because we have experienced our broken clock accuracy up front this year. For the second week in a row, our selections went 3-0 to give us a 6-0 record to start the season. We know there are about 150-200 new visitors to this site since the 2021-22 College Football National Championship. Get this and get it good–we are not svengali’s. We are not Billy Walters. We aren’t even Brent Musberger and his incredible cast of handicappers. What are we? Really lucky and not much more than that.
Every week, we preface our selections by urging (begging) you not to wager real currency on the selections you read on this site. We know that there are a considerable number of professional speculators in the Nevada gold mines. We don’t have to tell you what to do with your occupation. It’s Joe Tackletrap in Wichita Falls, Texas, who makes $40,000 a year working himself silly that can ill afford to lose $500 that we have concerns about losing $500 because he wagered $100 each on five selections and lost them all, as he saw his mortgage payment money taken away.
Last week, we casually mentioned that there were some people in Nevada that we had information that they were following this site. Wow! We heard from six different people, two of whom represent a consortium of others, telling us they follow this site. And, they were not all from Las Vegas. We have to give some love to the biggest little city in America–Reno. There’s somebody there that sent us a little note.
For one paragraph, let’s pretend that we really did speculate these first two weeks of the football season, wagering $100 ($110) on margins and totals and $100 on the money line parlay. With the 6-0 record, including a parlay that paid back $241.77, our pretend starting bank account of $1,000 would now be worth $1,641.77. Making a 64% profit in two weeks in real life would quickly lead us to cash out and play no more games. That would be our Holiday Fund for this year.
What are the chances that our picks will be perfect again this week? The prior best first three week start we have ever had was a 9-3-1 start to the 2008 season. In most years, September is our worst month, with a big turnaround in October. Thus, we still do not have much confidence in our September picks. It’s merely the law of averages giving us a positive outlier.
Now that we have adequately warned you, we present our picks for this week. We are going with five selections.
Selection #1: Missouri and Kansas State UNDER 56 1/2
Our belief here is that the Wildcats will play a bit conservatively in the first half trying to keep the ball away from the Tiger offense, as Coach Chris Kleiman is a defense first leader. Missouri scored 52 points against a weak Louisiana Tech defense, and our belief is that the totals line might be a tad too high due to this. KSU’s defense pitched a shutout over FCS South Dakota. The Coyotes are not the top team in the Mount Rushmore state, but their offense is consistent. We see this game as a 28-20 win for the Wildcats. That gives us an extra touchdown to be wrong and still be right.
Selection #2: Iowa and Iowa State OVER 39 1/2
Iowa failed to reach the end zone against South Dakota State, winning 7-3 on a field goal and two safeties. The public looked at a Big Ten team’s offense failing to score on an FCS opponent and didn’t realize two important factors. First, South Dakota State is probably better than 60-75 FBS teams. Second, a college football team improves the most during a season in the practices between game one and game two. You can bet that this week in Iowa City, the offensive units in Hawkeye Land have had just about enough of hearing how lame they were in the opener. Over in Ames, Iowa State’s offense is far superior to its defense. Giving up 10 points to SEMO is nothing like Iowa’s holding SDSU to 3. SEMO is a mediocre Ohio Valley Conference team. Iowa will unleash its offense this week and top 20 points. Our hope is that Iowa State will respond in kind and make this a 24-21 game, topping 39 1/2 points.
Selection #3: Florida and Kentucky OVER 52 1/2
Florida came through for us last week, winning as an underdog when we believed the wrong team was favored. Kentucky overcame a slow start and eventually slaughtered a decent but not spectacular Miami of Ohio team. We believe that the Florida team that almost beat Alabama in 2021 before the team quit on former coach Dan Mullen has returned. If they could score 29 on Alabama last year and 29 on a tough Utah defense in week one, the Gators should put the chomp on Kentucky’s defense for more than 35 points. Can Kentucky’s offense produce 17 points or more? We think they Wildcats will top 20 points, and thus we believe the total in this game will top 56.
Selection #4: Arizona +11 1/2 vs. Mississippi State
This game is a tad different from how we normally play home underdogs. We tend to like our home dogs to get 1 to 7 points. We are making an exception here because it is our belief that few too people saw how the Wildcats went to San Diego State on the Christening of their new stadium and spoiled the party for the home team. We have been keeping our eyes on Coach Jedd Fisch since his arrival in Tucson. It is our beliefe that ‘Zona may have found their football equivalent of Lute Olson. His pedigree is about as incredible as a long-time assistant coach can own. Going up against a Mike Leach-coached team, this late night desert dogfight is going to give us reason to brew an evening pot of coffee. This could be the most entertaining game of Week Two, and we expect the home team to be in it for the entire 60 minutes. What’s great about this selection is that the superior SEC is having to play at the Pac-12 opponent’s home field rather than watch the Pac-12 team make the 2,000+ mile trip to the Southeast. Mississippi State could win this game 31-21, 34-24, 38-28, 35-24, 38-27 and still not cover. We tend to believe that this game will be a 3 to 7 point game in either direction.
Selection #5: Money Line Parlay at +172.97
Central Florida over Louisville
Arkansas over South Carolina
Florida over Kentucky
Louisville looked terrible in a blowout loss at Syracuse and did not look ready to play. Coach Scott Satterfield is sitting on a scorching hot seat, as he has had UL detractors since his hiring. At the same time, Gus Malzahn has quickly become a favored coach in Orlando, and Central Florida looks like a real contender for the American Athletic Conference Championship. In addition, UCF has had this game circled on their schedule and calendar. UL won this game on a pick six last year. The Cardinals are headed to an ambush in Orlando.
The Arkansas-South Carolina game should be quite interesting as two very good SEC teams face off in Fayetteville. We were a bit concerned with Spencer Rattler’s performance against Georgia State, as it was a little too similar to the performances he turned in at Oklahoma, which cost him his starting spot. Arkansas has a much better pass rush and secondary than Georgia State, and their offense at times pushed Cincinnati’s defense around. We see Pig Sooey winning by 10-14 points if not more.
Kentucky has defeated Florida twice in four years, after going mutiple decades without a win over the Gators. Billy Napier has quickly become a favorite in the Swamp almost on par with Steve Spurrier. He probably is the most like former Gator coaches Ray Graves and Doug Dickey than Spurrier or any coaches since. The Gators will be prepared and ready to play every week. Napier is part of both the Nick Saben and Dabo Swinney coaching trees. He knows how to run a program, and his year at Louisiana proved it. Kentucky and coach Mark Stoops are not exactly chopped liver. The Wildcats have a potent team with an NFL prospect under center. Will Levis could be a top three pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kentucky could be the second best team in the SEC East, but they could be the third or fourth best too. We believe that the Gators will come into this game not resting on their laurels after pulling off the biggest win of Week One. Napier won’t let them get swollen heads. We’re going with Florida in a thriller, and we see the Gators winning 38-28.
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September 1, 2022
PiRate Picks–September 1-5, 2022
You know what they say about a broken clock being accurate twice a day? The PiRate Ratings happened to hit the right time on our broken clock in week one. We began the season with three totals’ plays in Week 0, and by luck, all three won. So, we start the season 3-0 against the spread, but are our picks a broken clock that happened to get lucky and be broken on the right time, or did we legitimately begin the season on a winning note?
In most years, our picks begin seasons on a somewhat mediocre beginning and then hit a hot spot in October and early November. What are we to make of a 3-0 start, where if we had begun with an imaginary bank account of $1,000 and wagered $100 on each of the three picks, we would have $1,300 in our account today? Maybe, if we were smart enough, we’d cash in our winning 30% profit and go away for the season. Not many people can make a 30% profit on an investment in one year.
Ah, but here’s the rub. In actuality a 30% profit on $0 is still $0. We could lose every pick we make the rest of the season, and we will have the same amount of real money we would have if we won every wager the rest of the year, because out real investment in this is $0. We never wager real money on these picks, and please don’t do so either.
Some of you do wager for real. We hope this site is merely an addendum to your process.
We have chosen three more selections in Week 1 of the College Football Season, and the three selections involve three different types of wagers. We are going with one side, one total, and one Money Line Parlay with a potential payoff of 141.77%.
Selection #1: Florida + 2 1/2 vs. Utah
Utah probably has three key games this year, where if the Utes go 3-0, they might be 13-0 when the College Football Playoff Committee chooses the four big teams. This is one of those three. I’d really like to see this game move to 3 1/2 points, because about 1 of every 11 college football games end with a 3-point spread. However, this one is a game where we believe the wrong team might be favored. Florida was much better than their record last year. The Gators basically mailed it in the second half of the year, and Dan Mullen was shown the door. New coach Billy Napier has restored the faith at the Swamp. While this Gator team has some vulnerable areas, maybe on the offensive side of the ball, the thought here is that the defense will be fired up and play above their heads in Napier’s first game. While the average of the three PiRate Ratings show Utah to be more than a 6-point favorite in this game, the thought here is that the Gators will be a touchdown better than their real worth, and that makes Florida a slight favorite. Getting 2 1/2 points when the underdog looks like a 55% outright winner is enough to work and make this a pick.
Selection #2: Michigan and Colorado St. UNDER 61 1/2
The question here to us is, “Can Michigan score over 50 points in this game?” The reason we ask this is that Colorado State is likely to score 10 points or less trying to break in a new offense with a new coach and without the necessary players to make it work? Michigan figures to win this game by more than 4 touchdowns, more likely 5 touchdowns. A score of 45-10 looks about right here, and that’s 6 1/2 points less than the total for this game.
Selection #3: Money Line Parlay–3 games at +141.77
Pittsburgh over West Virginia
TCU over Colorado
Houston over UTSA
The Backyard Brawl to start the season is an incredible first game rivalry. Pittsburgh lost a lot of talent off last year’s team, but the Panthers had a good bit of depth. Meanwhile, West Virginia is slowly building up their talent level, but the Mountaineers have a long way to go. In fact, this could be the year where the game with Kansas determines which team finishes last in the Big 12. Pittsburgh looks 10-13 points better to start the season.
TCU starts a new era in Fort Worth for the first time since 2000. Sonny Dykes tries to give the Horned Frogs a little more offense and brings more of a passing game, air-raid style. After surprising some people in the 2020 Covid year and guiding the Buffs to four consecutive wins to start his tenure in Boulder, Colorado has since gone 4-10. This game looks like a 10-14 point win for TCU.
Houston figures to contend along with Central Florida as Cincinnati’s top competitors in the American Athletic Conference. While UTSA is a top of the food chain team in CUSA, they are not ready to stake a claim to second best team in the Lonestar State after Texas A&M. Even playing in San Antonio, the Cougars are at least a touchdown better than the Roadrunners.
Season to Date
Beginning Bankroll (not real): $1,000
Imaginary Investment Last Week: $300
Outcome 3-0
Imaginary return $600
New Bank Account: $1,300
August 19, 2022
SEC Preview
Current Penn State head football coach James Franklin once said when he was the head coach at Vanderbilt that there were three major football leagues in America: The NFC, The AFC, and The SEC. This conference has dominated the National Championship Playoffs placing two teams in the four-team field multiple times. Prior to the Playoff era, it produced multiple BCS Championship Game teams, including an Alabama-LSU game. Prior to the BCS era, it produced multiple mythical national champions. It wasn’t just Alabama. Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee claimed titles. Former member Georgia Tech did as well.
The SEC was the pioneer of divisional play with a conference championship game, when Arkansas and South Carolina joined the league in 1991. It was the first conference to expand to 12 teams. Adding Texas A&M and Missouri, it became the first major conference to expand to 14 teams, and by announcing the addition of Texas and Oklahoma in the near future, it became the first major conference to expand to 16. It isn’t the first attempt at a 16-team league, as the Western Athletic Conference expanded to 16 teams in 1996. That overgrowth lasted three seasons, before the league realized that travel expenses were too high and revenue too low to continue. The Mountain West Conference was formed when the league split in half.
The opposite will be true when a 16-team SEC begins in 2024 or 2025. The media rights package will pay each member school about $100 million apiece. Travel from Gainesvile, Florida to Austin, Texas, or Columbia, South Carolina to Norman, Oklahoma will not be a cost probitive as travel from Houston, Texas to Honolulu, Hawaii, as the old WAC had to do. Of course, the TV ratings will be many times greater.
Will the SEC be content to stop at 16 teams in the near future? Commissioner Greg Sankey has admitted multiple times, almost stressing it a bit too far, that multiple school presidents and athletic directors had contacted him about admittance to the league. Sankey wouldn’t continually announce this news if he wasn’t trying to keep it in the news. It looks like a quasi-threat to the other big league that will soon stretch from coast to coast that he can expand to 20 or even 24 teams quite easily.
What about 2022? A year after Alabama and Georgia met in a spectacular National Championship Game, it looks quite possible that the two teams could produce an encore performance. Georgia lost enough talent to form a new team and gain bowl eligibility. Losing that many NFL Draftees, it should lead to a major rebuilding effort. However, Kirby Smart has so much talent on board in Athens. Last year’s Bulldogs’ second team was still the second best team in the SEC East. Those players are a year more experienced, and there is still first team talent remaining. The talent is so abundant with depth that Smart didn’t seek out any added players in the Transfer Portal. Georgia could easily go 12-0 in the regular season again this year, because the rest of the division teams have too many weaknesses.
The second, third, fourth, and fifth best teams all have enough talent to win nine games this year. Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina return exceptional players on both sides of the ball and add players that should contribute this year. But, none of the quartet can go 7-1 in SEC play. Even if Georgia is upset by one of these four, the Bulldogs will go 7-1.
Florida could surprise a lot of people this year. This team has a lot more talent than their 2021 record showed. The team quit on former coach Dan Mullen. They will give their all for new coach Billy Napier, who comes to Gainesville after making the University of Louisiana a top 20 team.
South Carolina could be the other surprise. At this time last year, former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler was the early Heisman Trophy candidate. He’s now a Gamecock, and if he can regain his old form, USC has a chance to increase their points per game by 10 points.
Missouri faces a rebuilding effort under second year coach Eliah Drinkwitz. The Tigers have a tough non-conference game at Kansas State, and it may require a win in that game for MU to gain bowl eligibility this year. It isn’t likely to happen.
As for Vanderbilt, second year coach Clarke Lea might have a better team this year than last, but this team is so far behind the rest of the league, that it would be a minor miracle for the Commodores to win a conference game. Vandy has lost its last 18 SEC games, and that number will likely rise to 26 at the end of the year. This isn’t foreign to this school; they once lost 33 consecutive SEC games from 1976 to 1981.
As for the West, here is something scary. Last year, when Alabama went 11-1 in the regular season, slaughtered eventual national champion Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, easily dismissed Cincinnati in the College Football Playoffs as the #1 seed and then sort of blew the National Championship Game against Georgia, it was, according to Coach Nick Saban, a rebuilding season in Tuscaloosa. Saban doesn’t make statements like this often. He’s warning the rest of the nation that he has a team for the ages for 2022. By team for the ages, I refer to legendary college teams like Nebraska in 1971 and 1995, Miami of Florida in 1988 and 2001, and USC in 1972 and 2004. Basically, he is calling this team the equal of the 2020 team that went 13-0 with an average game score of 49-19. If Alabama loses a regular season game, it will make news in 2022.
SEC Preseason PiRate Ratings
| East Division | ||||
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Georgia | 130.5 | 128.6 | 132.1 | 130.4 |
| Tennessee | 115.1 | 114.8 | 115.2 | 115.0 |
| Kentucky | 112.0 | 112.7 | 113.2 | 112.6 |
| South Carolina | 109.4 | 108.7 | 108.8 | 109.0 |
| Florida | 105.8 | 107.9 | 106.2 | 106.6 |
| Missouri | 103.9 | 104.0 | 102.9 | 103.6 |
| Vanderbilt | 91.0 | 92.2 | 89.2 | 90.8 |
| West Division | ||||
| Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Alabama | 128.9 | 127.6 | 130.5 | 129.0 |
| Arkansas | 115.8 | 113.8 | 116.0 | 115.2 |
| Texas A&M | 113.3 | 114.7 | 114.7 | 114.2 |
| Mississippi St. | 115.1 | 113.0 | 113.4 | 113.8 |
| L S U | 112.9 | 112.1 | 112.1 | 112.4 |
| Ole Miss | 113.3 | 111.3 | 111.7 | 112.1 |
| Auburn | 112.0 | 110.5 | 110.8 | 111.1 |
| SEC | 112.8 | 112.3 | 112.6 | 112.6 |
Preseason Official SEC Media Poll (I voted in this poll)
| Votes | |||
| # | East | 1st Place | Overall |
| 1 | Georgia | 172 | 1254 |
| 2 | Kentucky | 4 | 932 |
| 3 | Tennessee | 1 | 929 |
| 4 | Florida | 0 | 712 |
| 5 | South Carolina | 3 | 662 |
| 6 | Missouri | 0 | 383 |
| 7 | Vanderbilt | 1 | 196 |
| # | West | 1st Place | Overall |
| 1 | Alabama | 177 | 1262 |
| 2 | Texas A&M | 3 | 968 |
| 3 | Arkansas | 1 | 844 |
| 4 | Ole Miss | 0 | 675 |
| 5 | LSU | 0 | 591 |
| 6 | Mississippi St. | 0 | 390 |
| 7 | Auburn | 0 | 338 |
| Championship | Overall | ||
| Alabama | 158 | ||
| Georgia | 18 | ||
| South Carolina | 3 | ||
| Vanderbilt | 1 | ||
| Texas A&M | 1 |
The PiRate Ratings are not designed to look forward past the next week of games like other computer ratings. My ratings factor experience and depth into the power rating number. Teams with exceptional depth might gain points during the season regardless of the outcome of their previous game. Teams lacking experience but possessing exceptional talent might gain points during the year. Teams lacking depth might lose points during the year. Nevertheless, here are the predictions.
Predicted Won-Loss Records
| East | Conf. | Overall |
| Georgia | 8-0 | 12-1 |
| Kentucky | 4-4 | 8-4 |
| Tennessee | 4-4 | 7-5 |
| Florida | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| South Carolina | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| Missouri | 1-7 | 4-8 |
| Vanderbilt | 0-8 | 2-10 |
| West | Conf. | Overall |
| Alabama | 8-0 | 13-0 |
| Arkansas | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| Texas A&M | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| LSU | 4-4 | 8-4 |
| Mississippi State | 4-4 | 8-4 |
| Ole Miss | 4-4 | 8-4 |
| Auburn | 2-6 | 6-6 |
Coming Monday: The first regular season PiRate Ratings with spreads of Week 0 games. College football kicks off Saturday, August 27.
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