The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:06 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday October 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Appalachian St. -6.3 -6.6 -6.1

 

Thursday October 11
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
TCU Texas Tech 7.5 7.8 7.6
Texas St. Georgia Southern -17.3 -15.9 -18.5

 

Friday October 12
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulsa South Florida -4.8 -8.0 -4.8
Utah Arizona 15.0 14.9 15.3
San Diego St. Air Force 10.9 10.7 12.2

 

Saturday October 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boston College Louisville 22.4 20.0 23.1
Virginia Miami (Fla.) -9.9 -8.1 -10.5
Eastern Michigan Toledo -1.7 -1.5 -0.8
South Carolina Texas A&M 1.7 2.0 1.5
Coastal Carolina Louisiana-Monroe 2.3 5.2 2.6
Illinois Purdue -11.6 -10.2 -12.1
Central Michigan Ball St. 3.8 4.1 4.6
Georgia Tech Duke 1.4 2.7 1.7
Maryland Rutgers 22.8 22.3 23.8
North Carolina Virginia Tech -11.1 -11.3 -11.7
Charlotte Western Kentucky -7.0 -8.1 -8.3
East Carolina Houston -16.9 -17.7 -17.5
Buffalo Akron 8.0 8.9 8.6
Old Dominion Marshall -6.6 -5.5 -7.8
Florida Int’l. Middle Tennessee 0.6 3.4 0.2
Miami (O) Kent St. 15.2 15.8 18.0
Utah St. UNLV 23.9 23.7 24.8
Colorado St. New Mexico -1.5 -2.2 -1.7
Liberty Troy -9.3 -11.8 -10.8
Notre Dame Pittsburgh 28.3 26.1 28.3
USC Colorado 8.6 5.4 6.6
San Jose St. Army -21.7 -21.5 -23.7
Oregon Washington -7.7 -5.5 -8.5
Northern Illinois Ohio U 5.3 5.0 4.7
UTSA Louisiana Tech -10.9 -8.8 -11.3
Bowling Green Western Michigan -9.1 -10.9 -10.2
Arkansas Ole Miss -0.3 -2.3 -1.5
Michigan Wisconsin 9.6 10.9 10.3
Ohio St. Minnesota 29.2 27.9 30.0
Navy Temple -8.5 -6.3 -10.0
Iowa St. West Virginia -0.5 -1.2 -0.2
North Texas Southern Miss. 17.8 17.1 17.9
Northwestern Nebraska 20.1 19.8 22.3
Indiana Iowa -11.4 -10.1 -10.9
Memphis Central Florida -10.2 -8.5 -9.9
Auburn Tennessee 24.5 22.7 26.8
Texas Baylor 13.3 13.9 13.4
Alabama Missouri 28.3 27.8 28.9
Vanderbilt Florida -11.7 -9.6 -12.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. -5.7 -5.4 -6.8
Rice UAB -20.8 -20.6 -23.2
LSU Georgia -13.1 -9.8 -13.1
Louisiana New Mexico St. 5.7 5.8 6.3
Penn St. Michigan St. 10.3 9.7 11.4
BYU Hawaii 21.5 19.7 23.0
California UCLA 13.8 11.5 15.6
Fresno St. Wyoming 19.1 18.1 20.1
Nevada Boise St. -17.5 -17.1 -18.3

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
South Alabama Alabama St. 29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9
2 Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9
3 Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2
5 Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5
6 Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7
7 Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4
8 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
9 Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0
10 Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0
11 Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3
12 Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5
13 Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1
14 Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6
15 Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3
16 L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2
17 Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6
18 Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4
19 Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2
20 N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0
21 West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9
22 Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9
23 Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8
24 Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5
25 Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5
26 Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4
27 Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3
28 Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2
29 Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2
30 Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7
31 T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4
32 Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3
33 Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1
34 S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0
35 Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3
36 Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1
37 Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4
38 Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3
39 Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9
40 U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8
41 Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7
42 Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8
43 Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0
45 Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0
46 Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8
47 California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3
48 Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0
49 Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0
50 Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0
51 Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6
52 San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2
53 Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2
54 Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8
55 Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8
56 Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7
57 Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1
58 Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1
59 Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9
60 Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8
61 Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7
62 N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6
63 Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5
64 BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2
65 Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0
66 Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7
67 South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4
68 Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4
69 Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2
70 Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5
71 N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4
72 Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9
73 Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8
74 Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7
75 Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4
76 Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6
77 U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2
79 Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0
80 Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7
81 Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6
82 Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3
83 Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3
84 Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2
85 Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9
86 Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8
87 Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6
88 U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3
89 Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2
90 Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1
91 Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0
92 Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0
93 Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7
94 Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3
95 Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0
96 SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3
97 Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1
98 Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8
99 Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7
100 Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6
101 Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1
102 New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3
103 Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4
104 Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0
105 U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8
106 W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6
107 Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2
108 Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8
109 Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5
110 Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5
111 Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1
112 Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0
113 East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8
114 Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8
115 U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9
116 Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4
117 Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0
118 Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9
119 Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9
120 Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5
121 UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2
122 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1
123 South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0
124 N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0
125 San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0
126 Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3
127 Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9
128 U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9
129 Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1
130 Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 115.1 115.2 115.6 115.3 2-0 5-0
Temple 102.4 102.4 103.3 102.7 2-0 3-3
South Florida 98.6 100.8 98.9 99.4 1-0 5-0
Cincinnati 97.9 99.5 98.3 98.5 2-0 6-0
East Carolina 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.8 0-2 2-3
Connecticut 73.3 73.6 71.9 72.9 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Houston 102.9 103.5 103.1 103.2 1-0 4-1
Memphis 101.9 103.7 102.7 102.8 1-2 4-2
Tulane 94.2 94.6 94.0 94.3 1-1 2-4
Navy 91.4 93.6 90.8 92.0 1-1 2-3
SMU 91.8 91.2 90.8 91.3 1-1 2-4
Tulsa 90.8 89.8 91.1 90.6 0-2 1-4
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.6 131.0 134.1 132.9 3-0 6-0
N. Carolina St. 114.2 113.6 114.1 114.0 1-0 5-0
Boston College 114.5 111.9 114.1 113.5 1-1 4-2
Syracuse 109.6 108.2 108.8 108.9 1-2 4-2
Florida St. 107.1 106.5 106.8 106.8 1-3 3-3
Wake Forest 103.5 101.1 101.2 101.9 0-2 3-3
Louisville 95.1 94.9 94.1 94.7 0-3 2-4
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.0 115.6 116.7 116.5 2-0 5-1
Duke 114.1 111.8 113.5 113.2 0-1 4-1
Virginia Tech 113.1 112.2 112.9 112.7 2-0 3-2
Georgia Tech 112.4 111.5 112.2 112.1 1-2 3-3
Virginia 104.1 104.6 103.2 104.0 1-1 3-2
Pittsburgh 100.4 99.8 99.6 100.0 2-1 3-3
N. Carolina 99.0 97.9 98.2 98.4 1-1 1-3
ACC Averages 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.0 119.7 119.0 2-1 5-1
West Virginia 114.5 113.6 113.8 113.9 3-0 5-0
Texas 113.9 112.6 113.6 113.3 3-0 5-1
T C U 113.2 112.2 112.0 112.4 1-1 3-2
Oklahoma St. 111.7 109.9 111.7 111.1 1-2 4-2
Iowa State 111.0 109.3 110.6 110.3 1-2 2-3
Texas Tech 108.7 107.3 107.4 107.8 1-1 3-2
Kansas St. 103.0 101.5 101.8 102.1 0-3 2-4
Baylor 102.6 100.7 102.1 101.8 2-1 4-2
Kansas 98.9 97.5 97.2 97.9 0-3 2-4
Big 12 Averages 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.6 129.2 128.2 3-0 6-0
Michigan 123.8 122.5 124.1 123.4 3-0 5-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-1 4-1
Michigan St. 116.5 114.4 115.8 115.6 2-1 3-2
Maryland 104.8 103.4 103.9 104.0 1-1 3-2
Indiana 100.0 99.2 99.8 99.7 1-2 4-2
Rutgers 85.0 84.0 83.1 84.0 0-3 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.2 114.5 116.7 116.1 2-0 4-1
Iowa 114.4 112.2 113.8 113.5 1-1 4-1
Northwestern 112.8 111.1 113.0 112.3 2-1 2-3
Purdue 107.8 106.2 107.4 107.1 1-1 2-3
Minnesota 102.5 101.7 102.2 102.1 0-2 3-2
Nebraska 95.8 94.3 93.7 94.6 0-3 0-5
Illinois 94.2 94.0 93.4 93.9 1-1 3-2
Big Ten Averages 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 97.7 97.6 97.4 1-1 3-3
Marshall 92.5 95.0 93.3 93.6 1-1 3-2
Middle Tennessee 91.9 93.2 93.1 92.7 2-0 3-2
Florida Int’l. 89.5 93.6 90.3 91.1 1-0 3-2
W. Kentucky 84.1 87.3 85.3 85.6 0-1 1-4
Old Dominion 83.4 87.0 83.0 84.5 0-3 1-5
Charlotte 74.6 76.8 74.5 75.3 1-1 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 99.6 102.0 100.4 100.6 1-1 5-1
Louisiana Tech 93.0 95.3 94.3 94.2 1-1 3-2
U A B 92.3 94.7 92.9 93.3 2-0 4-1
Southern Miss. 84.7 87.8 85.5 86.0 1-0 2-2
U T S A 79.1 83.5 79.9 80.9 2-0 3-3
U T E P 71.1 74.2 70.5 71.9 0-2 0-6
Rice 69.0 71.6 67.2 69.3 0-2 1-5
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.8 122.9 125.0 124.5 x 6-0
Army 102.5 103.1 102.7 102.8 x 3-2
BYU 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.2 x 3-3
Massachusetts 83.2 85.1 84.1 84.1 x 2-5
Liberty 79.8 78.8 79.8 79.5 x 2-3
N. Mexico St. 76.2 78.2 76.5 77.0 x 2-4
Independents Averages 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 96.8 98.9 97.8 97.8 2-0 5-1
Ohio U 92.6 93.8 93.1 93.2 1-0 3-2
Miami (O) 91.6 93.3 94.0 93.0 2-1 2-4
Akron 91.7 93.0 92.2 92.3 0-1 2-2
Bowling Green 80.4 80.5 80.4 80.4 0-2 1-5
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.5 79.1 0-2 1-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.4 98.5 97.1 97.7 1-0 3-2
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.7 94.8 95.2 3-0 3-3
Eastern Michigan 93.2 94.5 93.8 93.8 0-3 2-4
Western Michigan 92.0 93.8 93.1 93.0 2-0 4-2
Central Michigan 85.4 87.9 85.9 86.4 0-2 1-5
Ball St. 84.1 86.4 83.8 84.8 1-1 2-4
MAC Averages 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 111.4 110.8 111.8 111.3 1-1 3-2
Utah St. 106.1 107.4 107.5 107.0 1-0 4-1
Air Force 94.9 95.4 94.7 95.0 0-2 2-3
Wyoming 94.6 94.5 93.9 94.3 0-2 2-4
New Mexico 88.7 90.3 88.8 89.3 1-0 3-2
Colo. State 84.2 85.1 84.1 84.5 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.6 109.5 110.9 110.4 1-0 4-1
San Diego St. 102.8 103.1 103.9 103.2 1-0 4-1
Nevada 90.9 90.6 90.5 90.7 1-1 3-3
U N L V 85.2 86.7 85.6 85.8 0-1 2-3
Hawaii 82.4 84.5 81.5 82.8 3-0 6-1
San Jose St. 77.3 78.1 75.5 77.0 0-2 0-5
MWC Averages 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 123.9 121.8 125.4 123.7 3-0 5-1
Stanford 114.8 112.1 114.8 113.9 2-1 4-2
Oregon 113.2 113.2 113.9 113.4 1-1 4-1
Washington St. 109.3 108.3 108.6 108.7 2-1 5-1
California 107.3 104.8 106.7 106.3 0-2 3-2
Oregon St. 86.6 84.2 84.8 85.2 0-3 1-5
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 114.1 112.3 114.8 113.8 1-2 3-2
U S C 109.7 107.9 108.9 108.8 2-1 3-2
Arizona St. 107.6 106.3 107.2 107.0 1-2 3-3
Colorado 104.1 105.6 105.3 105.0 2-0 5-0
Arizona 102.2 100.5 102.5 101.7 2-1 3-3
U C L A 96.5 96.3 94.1 95.6 0-2 0-5
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.0 127.7 132.0 130.2 4-0 6-0
Missouri 114.8 113.2 115.8 114.6 0-2 3-2
Florida 114.7 113.0 115.7 114.4 3-1 5-1
Kentucky 114.6 113.5 114.5 114.2 3-1 5-1
S. Carolina 112.4 111.3 112.2 112.0 2-2 3-2
Vanderbilt 100.4 100.8 100.3 100.5 0-2 3-3
Tennessee 96.7 97.1 96.0 96.6 0-2 2-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 140.1 138.0 141.7 139.9 3-0 6-0
Mississippi St. 119.6 117.1 120.3 119.0 1-2 4-2
Auburn 118.2 116.9 119.8 118.3 1-2 4-2
L S U 114.9 114.9 115.9 115.2 2-1 5-1
Texas A&M 113.7 112.3 113.7 113.2 2-1 4-2
Ole Miss 103.7 103.3 103.9 103.6 0-2 4-2
Arkansas 100.4 97.9 99.4 99.2 0-3 1-5
SEC Averages 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.4 100.1 99.9 99.4 1-0 3-1
Troy 92.1 93.6 93.6 93.1 3-0 5-1
Georgia Southern 90.0 91.6 90.8 90.8 2-0 4-1
Coastal Carolina 78.9 81.7 79.5 80.0 1-1 3-2
Georgia St. 79.0 81.0 79.8 79.9 1-1 2-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.1 90.5 90.7 90.1 0-1 3-2
Louisiana 78.9 81.0 79.9 79.9 1-1 2-3
UL-Monroe 79.1 79.0 79.4 79.2 0-2 2-4
South Alabama 76.2 78.1 76.8 77.0 1-2 1-5
Texas State 70.2 73.2 69.8 71.1 0-2 1-4
Sun Belt Averages 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.9 112.6 114.4 113.6
2 ACC 109.8 108.6 109.3 109.2
3 B12 109.7 108.3 109.0 109.0
4 BTEN 109.1 107.5 108.6 108.4
5 P-12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.3 95.5
7 IND 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.7
8 MWC 94.1 94.7 94.1 94.3
9 MAC 89.9 91.3 90.4 90.6
10 CUSA 85.8 88.6 86.3 86.9
11 SUN 83.2 85.0 84.0 84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1 Central Florida
2 South Florida
3 Cincinnati
4 Fresno St.
5 San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Georgia Southern
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 San Diego St. Colorado
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Florida Atlantic Louisiana
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Western Michigan UAB
Frisco AAC MAC [BYU] Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC [Army] [Marshall]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Utah]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Arizona St.] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Utah St.] Michigan St.
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Nevada]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC TCU Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 North Carolina St. Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia USC
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Florida Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Boston College Washington St.
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Stanford
Liberty Big 12 SEC Baylor Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Minnesota LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Kentucky
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton Ohio St. Clemson
Orange Alabama Notre Dame
National Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

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October 3, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for October 4-8, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:44 am

Another mediocre week by the PiRate Rating selections was offset by another spectacular week by three of our five Land Sharps.

Last week, our official picks went 4-7, to bring the total to date to 22-23-1.  This took our minor profit for the season to a minor loss of 5.7% Return on Investment.  We will include some Money Line parlays that give us better than +150 odds this week in an attempt to get back into the black.  In the past, we have done well when playing 4-game parlays that give us better than +150 odds, but we tend to cash in big on these parlays in November.  Hopefully, October will be nice to us.

As for the Land Sharps, Buckeye Michelle, Friday Dog 13, and Cal Gal Tiffany continue to draw the ire of the kind people in the State of Nevada.  If they keep up this streak, they will not be allowed to patronize the books (Note–every pick on this site is done strictly for entertainment purposes only, so they really have no connection with any books).

Dean615 and Stewed Meat have treaded water so far, as both as exactly .500 in their picks.  In Stewed’s defense, these are this Land Sharp’s “B” picks.  Stewed is a real professional, and Stewed A’s picks last week (college and NFL) went 8-3 including a Parlay win that returned 6 to 1 odds for a big profit.

This week, our Land Sharps have picked between 5 and 9 games.  Because we try not to do the same thing, and we include the NFL in our official picks, we are going with 9 selections–3 vs. spreads, 4, 10-point teasers, and 2 Money Line Parlays.

PiRate Ratings Official Picks 

Margins

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Akron Miami (O) 3 Akron
Baltimore Cleveland 3 Baltimore
San Francisco Arizona 3.5 San Francisco

10-Point Teasers (3-team parlays)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Louisville Georgia Tech 6.5 Georgia Tech
Boston College North Carolina St. 5.5 North Carolina St.
LSU Florida 13 Florida

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Alabama Arkansas 24 Alabama
Clemson Wake Forest 7.5 Clemson
Miami (Fla.) Florida St. 2.5 Miami (Fla.)

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
South Florida Massachusetts 4 South Florida
Georgia Southern South Alabama 3.5 Georgia Southern
Ole Miss Louisiana-Monroe 2.5 Ole Miss

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Central Florida SMU 14 Central Florida
Washington St. Oregon St. 6.5 Washington St.
Fresno St. Nevada 2 Fresno St.

 

Money Line Parlays

4 Teams at +168

Winner Loser
North Carolina St. Boston College
Troy Georgia St.
UNLV New Mexico
Miami (Fla.) Florida St.

 

4 Teams at +174

Winner Loser
Liberty New Mexico St.
South Florida Massachusetts
Buffalo Central Michigan
Georgia Southern South Alabama

 

The Land Sharps

Buckeye Michelle

Year to Date: 14-6  70.0%, 37.0% Return on Investment

Connecticut +36 vs. Memphis

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

Minnesota +7.5 vs. Iowa

Air Force +3.5 vs. Navy

UAB +9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Friday Dog 13

Year to Date: 11-5 68.8%, 34.4% Return on Investment

Marshall -6 vs. Middle Tennessee

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Ole Miss -22 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

West Virginia -28.5 vs. Kansas

Central Florida -24 vs. SMU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

South Florida -4 vs. Massachusetts

Syracuse -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh

Kentucky +6 vs. Texas A&M

 

Cal Gal Tiffany

Year to Date: 17-9  65.4%, 27.3% Return on Investment

Utah St. +3 vs. BYU

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

LSU -2.5 vs. Florida

Florida St. +13 vs. Miami (Fla.)

Georgia Southern -13.5 vs. South Alabama

Auburn -3 vs. Mississippi St.

Georgia -26.5 vs. Vanderbilt

 

Stewed Meat

Year to Date: 11-11  50.0%, -5% Return on Investment

Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Louisville

North Carolina St. -4 vs. Boston College

Florida +3 vs. LSU

Akron -3 vs. Miami (O)

Colorado -2.5 vs. Arizona St.

Houston & Tulsa UNDER 70.5

Michigan & Maryland UNDER 49

 

Dean615

Year to Date: 7-7  50.0%, -5.0% Return on Investment

Notre Dame -6 vs. Virginia Tech

Wisconsin -17.5 vs. Nebraska

Texas A&M -5.5 vs. Kentucky

Florida & LSU UNDER 44.5

Notre Dame & Virginia Tech OVER 56.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 5

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:18 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday September 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina 18.6 18.2 19.1

 

Friday September 28
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulane Memphis -7.4 -9.6 -9.0
Colorado UCLA 8.0 9.7 12.2

 

Saturday September 29
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Army 2.8 4.8 4.3
Connecticut Cincinnati -13.1 -14.6 -14.7
Michigan St. Central Michigan 40.2 35.2 39.4
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 0.9 1.6 2.1
Ball St. Kent St. 3.5 4.9 3.3
Wake Forest Rice 39.5 34.0 38.3
East Carolina Old Dominion 5.3 1.1 5.3
Georgia Tech Bowling Green 28.6 27.3 27.8
Boston College Temple 20.7 17.8 20.0
Clemson Syracuse 24.2 22.8 25.9
Appalachian St. South Alabama 16.5 15.9 16.8
Duke Virginia Tech 6.6 4.7 6.3
Georgia St. UL-Monroe -8.1 -5.2 -7.9
Ohio U Massachusetts 13.2 12.1 12.3
Central Florida Pittsburgh 14.1 14.5 15.1
Kentucky South Carolina 2.2 2.0 2.1
North Carolina St. Virginia 12.8 12.0 13.4
Rutgers Indiana -9.2 -9.3 -11.0
Air Force Nevada 6.5 7.0 6.7
Washington St. Utah 0.7 1.4 -1.3
Arizona St. Oregon St. 24.8 25.8 26.3
Washington BYU 26.1 23.1 27.3
Fresno St. Toledo 16.0 12.7 15.8
Miami (O) Western Michigan -1.3 -1.4 0.3
Louisville Florida St. -4.9 -4.1 -5.2
Penn St. Ohio St. -2.6 -3.2 -2.9
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -0.4 -0.4 -2.0
Georgia Tennessee 39.3 35.0 41.7
New Mexico Liberty 11.6 15.0 11.9
Auburn Southern Miss. 41.8 37.3 43.5
TCU Iowa St. 6.3 7.0 5.6
Alabama Louisiana 63.2 59.2 64.1
Oklahoma Baylor 18.7 19.4 19.8
UTSA UTEP 12.3 13.7 13.8
Nebraska Purdue -9.5 -9.3 -11.5
Kansas St. Texas -6.4 -6.4 -6.9
Texas Tech West Virginia -1.9 -2.5 -2.9
North Texas Louisiana Tech 13.6 13.8 13.4
UAB Charlotte 17.0 17.0 17.1
Kansas Oklahoma St. -10.3 -9.6 -12.7
Western Kentucky Marshall -8.4 -7.8 -8.3
Mississippi St. Florida 11.2 10.4 11.1
LSU Ole Miss 13.3 13.8 13.9
Troy Coastal Carolina 14.8 13.0 15.8
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic -6.5 -5.6 -6.0
Arizona USC -3.6 -3.4 -2.5
Wyoming Boise St. -14.0 -13.3 -14.7
San Jose St. Hawaii 1.6 0.1 1.0
Notre Dame Stanford 4.4 3.5 2.2
Northwestern Michigan -12.4 -13.2 -13.1
Texas A&M Arkansas 17.6 19.0 19.7
California Oregon 1.6 -1.5 0.6

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 27.9
SMU Houston Baptist 34.0
Florida Int’l. Ark.-Pine Bluff 43.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9
2 Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1
3 Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6
4 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
5 Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3
6 Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1
7 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
8 Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8
9 Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5
10 Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0
11 Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8
12 Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7
13 Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2
14 Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
15 Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8
16 Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0
17 Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6
18 Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3
19 L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1
20 Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9
21 Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7
22 S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5
23 N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5
24 West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4
25 Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2
26 Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6
27 Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2
28 T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2
29 Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1
30 Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9
31 Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9
32 Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8
33 Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4
34 Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1
35 Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7
36 Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9
37 Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7
38 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
39 Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4
40 Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3
41 U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0
42 Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9
43 Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7
44 Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7
45 Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6
46 N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7
47 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
48 Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2
49 Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7
50 Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3
51 Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8
52 Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7
53 Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2
55 Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9
56 Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9
57 BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8
58 Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4
59 Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3
60 Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9
61 Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7
62 Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9
63 Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4
64 N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2
65 San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1
67 Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9
68 South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6
69 Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5
70 Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4
71 Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4
72 Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1
73 Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1
74 Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9
75 Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7
76 Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4
77 Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0
78 Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8
79 Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4
80 U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4
81 Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2
82 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2
83 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0
84 Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3
85 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1
86 Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9
87 Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5
88 Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4
89 Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2
92 Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2
93 SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2
94 Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0
95 Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7
96 U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3
97 Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3
98 U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9
99 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9
100 Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8
103 Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1
104 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8
105 UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4
106 East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2
107 Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2
108 W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1
109 Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1
110 Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8
111 Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0
113 South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0
114 Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9
115 Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3
116 Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1
117 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
118 Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7
119 Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7
120 U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5
121 Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8
122 Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5
123 San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4
124 Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3
125 Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8
126 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5
127 Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4
128 Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2 1-0 3-0
South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6 1-0 4-0
Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1 1-0 2-2
Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9 0-0 4-0
East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2 0-1 1-2
Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7 0-1 3-1
Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9 0-0 3-1
Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0 1-1 2-2
Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0 0-0 1-3
SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2 1-0 1-3
Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6 1-0 4-0
Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8 0-0 3-1
Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0 0-0 4-0
Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1 1-0 2-1
Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2 1-0 4-0
West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2 0-1 3-1
T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2 0-1 2-2
Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9 1-0 3-1
Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9 0-1 1-2
Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9 1-0 3-1
Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9 1-0 3-1
Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3 0-1 2-2
Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4 0-1 2-2
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 1-0 4-0
Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1 1-0 3-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-0 4-0
Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5 1-0 2-1
Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1 0-1 3-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 1-0 3-1
Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7 1-0 1-2
Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6 0-1 1-3
Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5 0-1 0-3
Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5 0-0 2-2
Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-1
Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7 1-0 2-2
Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9 0-0 1-2
W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-3
Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8 0-2 1-3
Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4 1-0 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7 0-0 4-0
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2 0-0 2-1
U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0 1-0 2-1
U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5 0-0 1-3
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-1 1-3
U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2 0-0 0-4
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0 x 4-0
BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8 x 3-1
Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9 x 2-2
Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8 x 2-3
Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5 x 1-2
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5 x 1-4
Indep. Averages 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4 1-0 4-0
Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3 0-0 1-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-0 1-3
Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3 0-1 1-3
Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4 0-0 2-1
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0 1-0 1-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1 0-1 2-2
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 0-0 2-2
Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2 0-1 1-3
Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1 0-0 1-3
MAC Averages 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4 0-1 1-2
New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9 0-0 3-1
U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3 0-0 2-2
Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 4-1
San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3 2-0 3-1
Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7 2-0 4-0
Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4 0-1 3-1
Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4 0-1 3-1
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-3
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0 1-1 2-2
Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7 0-1 2-2
Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4 0-0 3-0
Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9 1-0 2-2
U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1 2-0 4-0
Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3 0-1 3-1
S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5 1-1 2-1
Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6 2-0 4-0
Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9 1-1 3-1
Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9 0-1 2-2
Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4 0-1 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9 2-0 4-0
Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8 1-1 3-1
Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8 0-1 3-1
L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1 1-0 4-0
Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9 0-1 2-2
Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4 0-1 3-1
Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1 0-1 1-3
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4 0-0 2-1
Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0 0-0 3-1
UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4 0-1 2-2
South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0 1-0 1-3
Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8 0-1 1-2
Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

 

The Conference Ratings

 

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
5 P-12 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
7 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
8 IND 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
9 MAC 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida

2. South Florida

3. North Texas

4. Cincinnati

5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Arkansas St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Washington St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Buffalo Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC [UNLV] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati UAB
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Army]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 [Utah] Iowa St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Atlantic Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Wyoming] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Akron] [BYU]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virgnia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Tech Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. LSU
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Florida
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Georgia Southern
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma Oregon
Belk ACC SEC Duke Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Notre Dame Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina St. Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota California
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa USC
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Syracuse South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Stanford Ohio St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Texas A&M
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Penn St.
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Best TV Games This Week

All Game Times, Eastern Daylight

Games in Red Are Top 3 of the Day

Time Home Team Visitor Network
12:00 PM Clemson Syracuse ABC
12:00 PM Buffalo Army CBSSN
12:00 PM Texas Tech West Virginia ESPN2
12:20 PM North Carolina St. Virginia ACCN
3:30 PM Kansas St. Texas FS1
4:30 PM Northwestern Michigan Fox
6:00 PM Mississippi St. Florida ESPN
6:00 PM Washington St. Utah Pac-12
7:00 PM Duke Virginia Tech ESPN2
7:30 PM Penn St. Ohio St. ABC
7:30 PM Notre Dame Stanford NBC
7:30 PM Kentucky South Carolina SEC
9:15 PM LSU Ole Miss ESPN
10:30 PM Fresno St. Toledo ESPNU
10:30 PM California Oregon FS1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 13-17, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:56 pm

We received a lot of comments last week from regular readers to this site that know how to contact us through another site.  We tend to keep our comments sections closed, because it becomes a task to monitor it for stuff that does not need to appear here.

The comments had nothing to do with our own picks last week.  We introduced five guest pickers, three of them members of the fairer sex, and overall, they had quite a successful week.

By far the overwhelming amount of responses were aimed at Buckeye Michelle.  The Ohio Transplant to the Sunny South merely went 5-0 picking 5 underdogs, and we received all kinds of comments pertaining to her, including a couple of marriage proposals.

Friday Dog 13 went 3-0 picking three prohibitive favorites that won by even larger scores than the line they were asked to cover.

Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2 in her seven picks, again, a very successful week that equates to a 56% Return on Investment.

Stewed Meat narrowly missed having a winning week, as Stewed went 2-3.  Bringing up the rear at 1-2 was Dean 615.

What about our own picks?  We suffered a lot of near misses and finished the week losing $90 imaginary after wagering $1,100 and going 5-6.  For the years, after two weeks, we are down $220 on a total of $1,700 wagered in our pretend bank account, so we are off to a bad year so far.

Just remember, all the picks you receive here this week and every week are free, and you should consider them worth exactly what you pay for them.

First, here are the PiRate’s official selections for the week.

Straight Spreads and Totals Selections–7

Favorite Underdog Spread/Total Pick
Army Hawaii           6 Army
Baylor Duke          6.5 Duke
Minnesota Miami (Ohio)          13 Minnesota
Denver Oakland          46 Under
Washington Indianapolis          47 Under
Cincinnati Baltimore           1 Baltimore
Dallas N.Y. Giants           3 Dallas

10-point Teaser Parlays–2

If you are unfamiliar with 10-point teasers, you can move the line by 10 points in your favor and play at less favorable odds than if you wager a straight wager against the spread or total.  By combining more than one game into a parlay, you can adjust the odds.  A 10-point teaser using three games makes the odds the same as wagering a straight wager.  You put up $11 of your money against $10 of the books, or what is referred to as -110 (You wager $110 versus the book wagering $100).

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Florida Colorado St. 31 Colorado St.
Texas USC 13.5 USC
Boston College Wake Forest 15 Wake Forest

 

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indiana Ball St. 4 Indiana
Penn St. Kent St. 24.5 Penn St.
Wisconsin BYU 11 Wisconsin

The Land Sharps

Now for our special sharps–our 5 guest pickers.  They have been tasked with selecting 3, 5, 7, or 9 college games each week.  None of the 5 know what the other 4 are picking, so in some cases, more than one guest is picking the same game, and even though it did not happen this week, we are sure that at some point, they could be on opposite sides of the same game.

We search for the best available line at oddshark.com.

Buckeye Michelle (5-0 for the season)

Syracuse + 3 1/2 vs. Florida St.

LSU +10 vs. Auburn

Duke +6 1/2 vs. Baylor

San Diego St. +5 1/2 vs. Arizona St.

Toledo +10 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

Friday Dog 13 (3-0 for the season)

Missouri -6 vs. Purdue

Tennessee -30 1/2 vs. UTEP

Virginia -3 1/2 vs. Ohio

 

Cal Gal Tiffany  (5-2 for the season)

Florida Int’l. -4 vs. U Mass.

Army -6 vs. Hawaii

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

Washington – 6 1/2 vs. Utah

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Stewed Meat (2-3 for the season)

Colorado St. +20 1/2 vs. Florida

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

Oregon St. +3 1/2 vs. Nevada

Washington -6 1/2 vs. Utah

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

 

Dean 615 (1-2 for the season)

Notre Dame -14 vs. Vanderbilt

North Texas +7 vs. Arkansas

TCU +14 vs. Ohio St.

 

 

 

August 19, 2018

2018 Southeastern Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:38 pm

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.
Our Power 5 Conference preseason ratings and won-loss predictions were figured before knowing the outcome of recent suspensions to Coaches Urban Meyer and D.J. Durkin at Ohio State and Maryland. Because our ratings set 100.0 as average, and the mean of all 130 teams must be 100.0, taking points away from Ohio State and Maryland require redistributing points to the other 128 teams. Expect these ratings to change prior to August 25.

 
There is an old saying that the three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, the AFC, and the SEC. The Southeastern Conference is the big dog of college football. It is followed by zealots who treat it like a religion. The fans know more about an incoming freshman than most businesses know about new employees. Some fans basically take off from work on Wednesday to take their RVs on the road for a Saturday game. Tailgating in the SEC could be a regular TV program on the Food Network. SEC Football is one of the most successful industries in the world!

 

 

In an effort to show you a little more about how the PiRate Ratings are made, we are going to reveal one of the pre-season rating scores we apply to each team. We will show you the scores of each unit on the 14 teams. These include, the Offensive Line, Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Defensive Line, Linebackers, Defensive Backs, and Special Teams. This does not make up the entire rating. This is just one look at each team, but it is the one you don’t need to understand any advanced analytics to fully understand and appreciate.

 
Each unit is graded on a scale of 60-100 at the FBS level. The grades are 95% mechanical and could be performed by anybody that has the key to how the mechanical grading is made. The other 5% is a minor adjustment based on the players’ original recruiting rankings, which sometimes can predict a player to improve by more than another.
These scores look like school grades, but in this system, the difference between 70 and 90 is much less than the difference in test grades in schools. The difference in a 90 offensive line and a 70 offensive line can be as little as 3-4 points of PiRate Rating.

 
We take these grades and assign a weighting to the units. Obviously the quarterback is much more important than the long snapper. We add or subtract points based on depth, coaching changes, and other intangibles to come up with one part of the three PiRate Ratings. Each PiRate Rating has 5 to 7 different systems that measure talent and coaching of the 130 teams, which is why it takes basically 130 days to rate 130 teams. We start as soon as a team wraps up Spring Practice and sends out their Spring Media Guide. Last year’s final rating is the starting point, and all the preseason work presents a plus or minus adjustment to the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings.

 
Remember that these rankings include starters and reserves, and these are not Pro football draft ratings; an option quarterback might be rated ahead of a potential 1st round NFL selection, because we are only concerned with how the players affect the college game. Starters count for about 80% and reserves about 20% for each unit, unless the position has co-starters or the starting QB has yet to be named; there is a different algorithm for these instances. Also, these ratings do not include injuries incurred in August practices, so the sad news about Alabama losing outstanding outside linebacker Terrell Lewis is included in their score, but the recent loss of Christopher Allen is not. His injury will be reflected in Alabama’s opening rating against Louisville a week from Tuesday.

 
About the units: Tight ends are included in both the receivers and offensive line. Running backs are included as part of the receivers. When there is a true blocking fullback, he is part of the offensive line rating and contributes almost nothing to the running back score. If he is used as a receiver like an H-Back, then he is treated the same way as a tight end.

 
The style of defense factors minimally in the ratings for each unit. A 3-4 linebacker unit will be more important than a 4-2-5, so the linebackers will be given more weight in the algorithm at the end of the ratings’ process.

 

EAST

Florida
Quarterback: 80
Receivers: 83
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 91
Defensive Line: 94
Linebackers: 88
Defensive Backs: 93
Special Teams: 86

Outlook: The recovery period for the Gators will be brief. This team quit on the previous staff after narrow losses to LSU and Texas A&M. The defense is better than it played last year, and Mullen brought Todd Grantham with him from Mississippi State, where the Bulldogs were much better defensively than their talent level predicted.
The schedule is almost a dream. Three cupcakes in non-conference play, home games with Kentucky, LSU, Missouri, and South Carolina, and road games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt make nine wins possible and eight wins probable. The Gators aren’t ready to challenge Georgia for the East Division championship, but they figure to compete for number two in Mullen’s first year back at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The Captain Says: 5-3 in the conference and 8-4 overall

Georgia
Quarterback: 89
Receivers: 91
Offensive Line: 96
Running Backs: 97
Defensive Line: 93
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 95

Outlook: Normally, a team that lost as much as Georgia lost on defense would be expected to fall back by at least two wins if not more. Also, when a team that lost first and second round-drafted running backs, the offense lost might decline enough to cost the team another win. That is far from the case with Georgia. With potential future All-American Jake Fromm returning at quarterback after an incredible freshman year that saw him finish a close second in passing efficiency, Fromm should top 3,000 yards passing behind a top-notch offensive line. The defense returns more than enough talent to keep holding opponents to around 17 points per game, and the schedule gives the Bulldogs a chance to run the table to the SEC Championship Game.

The Captain Says: 7-1 in the SEC and 11-1 overall and berth in SEC Championship Game

Kentucky
Quarterback: 77
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 92
Defensive Line: 78
Linebackers: 90
Defensive Backs: 90
Special Teams: 84

Outlook: Mark Stoops has slowly increased the talent level in Lexington to the point where the Wildcats are just a little behind the teams competing for second place. Close losses to Florida and Ole Miss kept Kentucky from playing in the Outback or Gator Bowl last year. Depth concerns will hurt this team, just like it did last year, when the Wildcats ran out of gas following a 5-1 start.

The Captain Says: 2-6 in the SEC and 5-7 overall

Missouri
Quarterback: 94
Receivers: 89
Offensive Line: 94
Running Backs: 92
Defensive Line: 85
Linebackers: 86
Defensive Backs: 77
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Missouri will go as far as the passing game takes them. Drew Lock had a 202.9 passer efficiency ratings in the 7 wins, all against teams with losing records or an FCS member. His efficiency rating fell to 124.9 in the six losses, all to teams that played in bowls. The Tigers might win a game or two with their special teams.

The Captain Says: 3-5 in the SEC and 7-5 overall

South Carolina
Quarterback: 85
Receivers: 94
Offensive Line: 84
Running Backs: 84
Defensive Line: 86
Linebackers: 88
Defensive Backs: 88
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Will Muschamp has this team in contention for second place in the East, but the Gamecocks do not have a strong enough offensive or defensive line to compete with the Georgia’s and Alabama’s in this conference. South Carolina rarely dominates the stat box.

They were outgained by 258 yards in a season-opening win over North Carolina State, by 64 yards the following week in a win over Missouri, and by 54 yards in a win over Vanderbilt. Expect a better yardage output this year, but the Gamecocks are not likely to be +11 in turnovers, so the final outcome should be about the same.

The Captain Says: 5-3 in the SEC and 8-4 overall

Tennessee
Quarterback: 81
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 76
Running Backs: 79
Defensive Line: 80
Linebackers: 86
Defensive Backs: 83
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: Tennessee last competed for the SEC Championship in 2007. Derek Dooley and Butch Jones failed to make this program great again, and now the job is in the hands of Jeremy Pruitt. Pruitt is a tough disciplinarian with the ability to teach kindergarten, a rare combination. He’s also a top-notch recruiter, so it is only a matter of time before the talent level moves upward. 2018 will be a tough introduction to the head coaching world.

The Vols have decent talent on the defensive side of the ball, not enough to make noise in the SEC, but enough to win a couple times in the league and to lose games by fewer points. It’s up to the offense to move the ball and keep the defense off the field, and we don’t think the offense is up to the task.

The Captain says: 3-5 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Vanderbilt
Quarterback: 83
Receivers: 80
Offensive Line: 81
Running Backs: 74
Defensive Line: 76
Linebackers: 75
Defensive Backs: 81
Special Teams: 82

Outlook: Derek Mason’s defensive Midas Touch turned from gold to balsa wood last year. Coming off a bowl season, the Commodores were expected to compete for another in 2017. A 3-0 start looked like Vanderbilt might have been on its way to its third 8-win regular season of the decade. Three tough games with Alabama, Florida, and Georgia left the team battered and bruised, and the Commodore ship took on too much water. That great defense gave up 505 yards and 46 points per game in the seven conference losses.

The Commodores lost seven starters off that defense, and the 2018 edition could be a little weaker. The offense could not run the ball in SEC play, averaging just 79 yards per game in the seven losses.

The Captain Says: 1-7 in the SEC and 4-8 overall
WEST

Alabama
Quarterback: 96
Receivers: 86
Offensive Line: 96
Running Backs: 99
Defensive Line: 96
Linebackers: 95
Defensive Backs: 93
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: For anybody else in the league, maybe including Georgia, when a team lost as much talent as the Tide, they would be picked to drop from the national championship to maybe 9-3. When a team plugs new All-Americans into the lineup to replace those that just left, the only thing that changes are the names in the program.

Make no mistake about it: Alabama could be vulnerable against an excellent mobile quarterback that can evade the pass rush and find an open receiver (isn’t everybody vulnerable in this case). The Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson, and Chad Kelly type beat other Alabama defenses, so this could be the case in 2018. Who on the schedule has this type of quarterback with an offensive line that can protect him, and with receivers that can get open and pick up big yards? Well, they aren’t officially on the schedule, as least not until game number 15–Clemson.

The Captain says: 8-0 in the SEC and 12-0 overall and berth in SEC Championship Game
Arkansas
Quarterback: 78
Receivers: 81
Offensive Line: 82
Running Backs: 87
Defensive Line: 79
Linebackers: 83
Defensive Backs: 79
Special Teams: 91

Outlook: The Bret Bielema era is over in Fayetteville, and grocers and restaurant owners are in mourning. Chad Morris brings his spread offense where the Razorbacks have been a pro-style power team in recent years. The talent level on both sides of the ball has fallen below the top teams in the league, and Arkansas is about on par with Kentucky in the other division. The two quarterbacks competing for the starting nod, Ty Storey and Cole Kelley, are both pro-style quarterbacks not necessarily equipped to run the Morris offense. The defense lacks a lot of quality talent, but new coordinator John Chavis will get more out of this unit than last year’s showing.

The Captain says: 2-6 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Auburn
Quarterback: 92
Receivers: 90
Offensive Line: 83
Running Backs: 87
Defensive Line: 94
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 92
Special Teams: 87

Outlook: Auburn has the talent to win the SEC Championship, but the schedule will prevent the Tigers from doing so. The Tigers must play the two division favorites plus dark horse Mississippi State on the road, and we wouldn’t pick the Cam Newton Auburn team to win all three games.
This could be the year where Auburn passes the ball for more than 250 yards per game. Jarrett Stidham has a stable full of race horse receivers and an offensive line that may be better at pass blocking than run blocking. The defense is still quite strong, so Auburn will compete in every game; it’s just that they will lose some close ones away from Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Captain says: 6-2 in the SEC and 9-3 overall

LSU
Quarterback: 78
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 85
Running Backs: 80
Defensive Line: 90
Linebackers: 92
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 87

Outlook: On paper, this might look like a team that is in danger of falling down to the bottom of the division. But, the Tigers still have a lot of talent, especially on defense, where it would not surprise us if LSU gives up less than 300 yards per game this year.

The offense looked to be a large negative with so much talent lost, but a little bird told us that recent Ohio State quarterback Joe Burrow is wowing the coaches in Baton Rouge. Since his arrival post Spring ball, two of the three quarterbacks expected to contend for a starting spot have transferred. Burrow had a 153.1 passer rating in very limited action with the Buckeyes. He has an accurate arm and plays with poise, but he has minimal game experience and dumped the ball to his backs even when he had open receivers downfield.

The Captain says: 3-5 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Mississippi
Quarterback: 81
Receivers: 96
Offensive Line: 88
Running Backs: 80
Defensive Line: 84
Linebackers: 79
Defensive Backs: 94
Special Teams: 89

Outlook: Matt Luke should have been given a special award for keeping the Ole Miss team together and bringing normalcy back to the program. Old-timers like us see a lot of John Vaught in his ability to lead a team and play an open style of offense. Ole Miss is still on probation with a bowl-ban, and it will likely cost this team a bowl game for the second consecutive season, because the Rebels can pass the ball and defend the pass well enough to win half of their games.

Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu was quite effective when he finally took over as the starter. In the final five games, his 167.3 passer rating was the best in the league over the time period, and he averaged 321 yards per game in that stretch. Of course, it is a lot easier to have great passing stats when your receiving corps is more talented than three or four NFL teams. A.J. Brown might be a leading Heisman Trophy contender if he played for Notre Dame, Oklahoma, or USC.

The Captain says: 2-6 in the SEC and 6-6 overall

Mississippi St.
Quarterback: 91
Receivers: 82
Offensive Line: 92
Running Backs: 90
Defensive Line: 93
Linebackers: 82
Defensive Backs: 90
Special Teams: 81

Outlook: Joe Moorhead comes to Starkville at the perfect time. He inherits all the pieces he needs to run a potent offense and play aggressive, smart defense. Except for the Alabama game, the Bulldogs can compete in the other 11. If Moorhead and defensive coordinator Bob Shoop can get improved play from the linebackers, and a couple of serviceable receivers can come forth to help take the heat off the running game, State could make a run at an 11-win season.

All this comes with a major caveat. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald must be 100% healthy and able to do the same thing this year that he did prior to the injury last year. If he stays healthy for 12 games, then State should have two, 1000-yard rushers.

The Captain says: 5-3 in the SEC and 9-3 overall

Texas A&M
Quarterback: 84
Receivers: 83
Offensive Line: 84
Running Backs: 86
Defensive Line: 88
Linebackers: 91
Defensive Backs: 85
Special Teams: 93

Outlook: Jimbo Fisher figures to make a lot of changes in year one compared to how Kevin Sumlin ran the team. The offense will go from a spread passing game to a pro-style with more power running. Fisher is a great mentor of quarterbacks, but as of this writing, the starter for 2018 has not been decided. NIck Starkel is the better passer, while Kellen Mond adds a running aspect that Starkel does not have.

The Aggies are solid at all positions but not spectacular at any. They have experience at linebacker with Tyrel Dodson and Otaro Alaka back after combining for 182 tackles with 22 for loss and 11 sacks.

The Captain says: 4-4 in the SEC and 7-5 overall

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll

SEC
East 1st Place Points
Georgia 271 1977
South Carolina 8 1535
Florida 4 1441
Missouri 0 1057
Kentucky 1 874
Tennessee 1 704
Vanderbilt 0 392
West 1st Place Points
Alabama 263 1971
Auburn 19 1664
Mississippi St. 2 1239
Texas A&M 0 1091
LSU 0 1025
Ole Miss 0 578
Arkansas 0 412

The PiRate Ratings differ minimally

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 0-0 130.9 126.3 132.4 129.8
Missouri 0-0 0-0 114.4 112.7 116.0 114.3
S. Carolina 0-0 0-0 112.9 111.7 112.2 112.3
Florida 0-0 0-0 112.9 110.6 113.3 112.2
Kentucky 0-0 0-0 106.8 105.3 106.3 106.1
Tennessee 0-0 0-0 98.8 99.5 98.4 98.9
Vanderbilt 0-0 0-0 96.8 97.5 96.2 96.9
West Division
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 0-0 0-0 132.0 129.3 133.8 131.7
Auburn 0-0 0-0 122.0 121.2 124.4 122.5
Mississippi St. 0-0 0-0 122.5 119.2 122.7 121.5
L S U 0-0 0-0 110.1 110.3 110.7 110.4
Texas A&M 0-0 0-0 110.7 109.6 110.7 110.3
Arkansas 0-0 0-0 109.3 106.4 107.6 107.8
Ole Miss 0-0 0-0 105.3 105.1 106.1 105.5
SEC Averages 113.2 111.8 113.6 112.9

New Coaches
Dan Mullen isn’t a new coach to the league, but he is a new head coach at Florida. Mullen has a storied history with his new team. He tutored Tim Tebow during the Urban Meyer years when Florida won two national championships. He left Mississippi State stocked with incredible talent, and his recruiting efforts in Gainesville will quickly bring the Gators back to prominence.
Jeremy Pruitt has an incredible resume as a defensive genius, and he takes over a Tennessee team that did not play a lot of defense in recent years. Pruitt has produced top defenses at Georgia, Florida State, and Alabama, and he comes to Knoxville with multiple championship rings. His recruiting strengths in the Deep South should give the Volunteers a decent chance of returning to glory, but not for a few years.

Arkansas welcomes Chad Morris to Fayetteville after he turned the SMU program back into a bowl team. Morris brings his up-tempo,spread offense to the SEC West, where it has worked just fine at Auburn. The style is a complete contrast to former coach Bret Bielema’s power offense. Morris previously was offensive coordinator at Clemson and helped develop Deshaun Watson into a star.
Joe Moorhead takes over for Mullen at Mississippi State. Moorhead most recently was offensive coordinator for Penn State, where his offenses took off the last two years. He was the head coach of the Fordham Rams from 2012 to 2015, taking the Rams to three consecutive FCS Playoffs.

Jimbo Fisher takes over at Texas A&M after a brilliant career at Florida State, first as a coach-in-waiting under Bobby Bowden, and then as a national championship-winning head coach. His previous SEC experience included six years as quarterback coach under Tommy Tuberville at Auburn.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. Ohio State and Maryland could see their ratings change by large amounts depending on the outcome of the two coaching investigations.  The predicted won-loss records in the team capsules are more realistic.

SEC
Team Conference Overall
East
Georgia 8-0 12-1
Florida 6-2 9-3
South Carolina 6-2 9-3
Missouri 4-4 8-4
Kentucky 2-6 5-7
Vanderbilt 1-7 4-8
Tennessee 0-8 3-9
West
Alabama 8-0 13-0 *
Mississippi St. 7-1 11-1
Auburn 5-3 8-4
Texas A&M 4-4 7-5
Arkansas 3-5 7-5
Ole Miss 1-7 5-7
LSU 1-7 4-8

Bowl Tie-ins
1. Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA
2. Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL
3. Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL
3. Texas Bowl in Houston, TX
3. Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL
3. Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC
3. Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN
3. Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
9. Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA
9. Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL

Coming Tuesday–The PiRate Ratings return to the in-season format. Our first ratings for the pre-week one schedule debut for the 2018 season. A couple of early games begin the college football season on Saturday, August 25.

November 21, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 21-25, 2017

Ugh!  After a nice streak of winning weeks to get us into the black, albeit by a sliver, our picks wore the collar last week.  Now, we are 9% in the red with just a couple weeks left to go to try to make it three consecutive winning seasons.  Boycotting the NFL picks has really hurt us this year, but that had to be done.

Maybe with 5 picks this week, we can hit on something that we have not been able to do well in the last few years–hit big on rivalry week.  In past years, we have played it safe and issued only one or two parlays on this week.  When a 2-9 team plays its 9-2 rival, the outcome isn’t as cut and dry as the week before when 2-8 played 8-2 in a non-rivalry game.

We only went with five games to throw a lot of darts on the board and hope we can somehow come out with a high enough score to win.  We need to win any three of these parlays to put us back in the black for the year, but winning three of five during rivalry week is crazy.  So, if we do, it is more pure dumb luck than our strategy.

As always, this is just an exercise for fun among one PiRate Captain and his 5 lasses.

Date
Nov 21-25
#1 @ +147  
Must Win Must Lose
Akron Kent St.
Florida Int’l. Western Ky.
   
#2 @ +137  
Must Win Must Lose
Texas Texas Tech
Tennessee Vanderbilt
   
#3 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
La.-Lafayette Georgia Southern
Florida St. Florida
Clemson South Carolina
   
#4 @ +154  
Must Win Must Lose
North Texas Rice
Middle Tenn. Old Dominion
Alabama Auburn
Wisconsin Minnesota
   
#5 @ +156  
Must Win Must Lose
Eastern Mich. Bowling Green
Georgia Georgia Tech
Northwestern Illinois
Virginia Tech Virginia
San Diego St. New Mexico

 

November 9, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 9-11, 2017

The Captain has regained control of the helm, and he is steering the PiRate ship once again.  Actually, the lasses suffered a loss last week, and they were too shy to come up with any parlays this week.  The Captain on short notice was only able to create two parlays, as he believes this may be a week to look at other wagering philosophies with several key games being played.

If you are new to this site, this weekly feature picks money line parlays that go off at better than +120 odds.  As a general rule, we look for 3-game parlays, but in some cases (like today), we will combine four or more games, and in fact, we once issued a 7-game parlay at +225 odds and won the wager.

Here are this week’s two parlay selections.  As always, consider this when deciding how you will make use of this publication: No PiRate booty has been jeopardized in the making of this feature.  We only play with pretend currency when selecting our parlays.

#1 @ +170  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Purdue
South Carolina Florida
Southern Miss. Rice
#2 @ +157  
Must Win Must Lose
Pittsburgh North Carolina
Florida Int’l. Old Dominion
Missouri Tennessee
Middle Tenn. Charlotte

 

 

November 2, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for November 2-6, 2017

The PiRate Captain had to send up the white flag after his lasses staged a successful mutiny two weeks ago. Much to his chagrin and ego, the ladies proceeded to come up with back-to-back weeks of pillaging of the Vegas vessels.

Last week, they brought in enough booty to send the SS Fortune into the black for the season. They proceeded to return a profit on the investment of a whopping 147%, missing out on going a perfect 4 for 4 by one play in overtime in the Appy State-U Mass game.  For the season, the PiRate Account is now in the black with a very modest 1% ROI.

The Captain will note that in the previous two seasons, the period from the last of October to the first of December followed the same MO–the selection results went from red numbers to black numbers and clinched a profit for the overall seasons.
Now, the lasses are lobbying to change the name of the PiRate ship to Queen Anne’s Revenge. The Captain is worried that five swollen heads on the lovely ladies could lead to a return of some booty to the Nevada books, but the ladies are overly confident that they have zeroed in using their superior female intuition.

Once again, the ladies picked the teams they thought had the best chance of winning outright but at the same time went off as small favorites, total tossups, or even slight underdogs. The Captain merely served as their accountant, putting together the best possible parlays as far as favorable odds go, thanks to his knowing which of the 2 dozen reputable books had the best overall odds.

 
The PiRate lasses selected four money line parlays, each going off at better than +120 odds, which is the unwritten rule for this weekly feature. Actually, there are just three parlays this week, as the fourth selection is a single game where the ladies believe the underdog should be favored by at least a touchdown.

Enjoy the picks, but remember, neither the ladies nor the Captain ever wager real money on the outcomes of these games. The goal here is to have fun with math.

#1 @ +155  
Must Win Must Lose
North Texas Louisiana Tech
#2 @ +144  
Must Win Must Lose
Georgia St.
Georgia Southern
Kentucky Ole Miss
#3 @ +167  
Must Win Must Lose
Navy Temple
Northwestern Nebraska
#4 @ +204  
Must Win Must Lose
Missouri Florida
UAB Rice
Tulane Cincinnati

 

 

October 26, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 26-28, 2017

Oh brother!  I leave my ladies in charge of the website for a few days, and when I return from a nice long weekend, they have rearranged all the e-furniture.  Worse, they exchanged the Money Line picks I had left with their own, and they actually enjoyed a winning week.  They issued four selections (totally different than what I had left to be published), and they won two of the four for a return on investment of 28%.

Believe me, I have not heard the end of this.  Mrs. Captain, of course, sided with her gender, and so this week, I must defer to the ladies to pick the parlays yet again.  All I have done is to organize their picks into the best possible parlay odds by sourcing the best odds from the available books.  What you have as a result are four more parlays, each returning greater than +120 odds (actually this week better than +150) while playing no more than three games per parlay.

Because the ladies selected to teams to win outright as underdogs, and to minimize risk, I have combined these two underdogs in one parlay that, if it wins, it would return an incredible payoff at +375 (a $100 investment would return $475).

One preface to this before you look at the parlays.  Two of the ladies here bleed scarlet and gray and believe that the Giant Horseshoe is a basilica, tabernacle, shrine, and temple.  They believe that script Ohio is akin to the holy scriptures.  Their key pick this week is Ohio State over Penn State, and to add to their partiality, they refer to the opponent at State Pen, and they believe James Franklin was set on Earth by Lucifer.

Personally, I see the Buckeyes ready to get their revenge, but I know Coach Franklin and have seen him work miracles at Vanderbilt.  If he could win at Georgia and Florida as a bigger underdog than his Nittany Lions will be tomorrow, then he can certainly channel his inner Tom Lasorda and get his team ready to run through the walls at said horseshoe.  I would not have selected this game as part of a parlay, but then I have ceded control of this submission to the lasses.

#1 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Appalachian St. Marshall
Georgia Florida
#2 @ +162  
Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Vanderbilt
Notre Dame NC State
Texas Baylor
#3 @ +152  
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Iowa Minnesota
Ohio St. Penn St.
#4 @ +375  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Michigan St.
Wyoming New Mexico

Money Line Parlay Tutorial for newcomers to this site

If you are new to Money Lines and Parlays, hopefully this will explain it well enough for you to understand what is going on above.

When two sports teams play, the more familiar way to provide options for wagering is a pointspread.  For instance, say that Notre Dame is playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Alabama might be favored to win by 6 1/2 points.  In order for Alabama to win the game for those that bet on the Crimson Tide, they would have to win by 7 or more points.  If Notre Dame won or lost by 6 points or less, then those that wagered on Notre Dame would win their bets.

There is another way to bet on this game.  It is called the “Money Line.”  Pointspreads are not used.  Instead, you simply pick either Alabama or Notre Dame to win the game.  If you can bet on Alabama to win this game, even by one point, it sounds too good to be true.  Yes, there is a catch here.  In order to bet on Alabama, you must put up more money than the sports book, but if you bet on the underdog Irish to win the game, the book puts up more money than you.  This is why the wager is called a “money line.”

When you look at money line odds, the favorite will have a minus number, and the underdog will have a plus number, although there are times when a tossup game will have two minus numbers.  The reason for this is that the sports books must get their cut or vigorish.

Let’s look at a couple games to be played tonight.  Northern Illinois hosts Eastern Michigan, and NIU is a modest favorite.  The Money Line is available at about 15 sports books where one could make a wager in one’s home via the Internet.  The line may vary from site to sire, so it is best to shop around to find the best odds.

For our purposes in this tutorial, we will use one famous online sports book, Five Dimes.  At the present time, the Money Line odds at 5D for the NIU-EMU game is listed at:   Northern Illinois -275, Eastern Michigan +235.

If you want to wager on NIU, you must put up $275 for every $100 5 Dimes puts up.  If you wager $100 on NIU to win, you will $36.36 profit and receive back $136.36 if NIU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.  If you wager $100 on EMU to win, you will receive $275 profit and receive back $375 if EMU wins, and you will be out $100 if they lose.

When you combine two or more games into one money line wager, your odds improve, but your chances of winning all the games in the one wager go down.  Let’s say you want to combine three favorites into one betting wager.  Let’s say you are going to play a parlay that includes Favorite #1 at -250, Favorite #2 at -225, and Favorite #3 at -180.

How do yo determine what the odds would be on this parlay of three favorites, all of whom would have to win their games for you to win your wager?  I won’t bore you with the mathematical formula.  There is an easy way to figure the odds, and it is called a parlay calculator.  You don’t have to buy this from a Las Vegas book store.  They are available for free in many places online.  In our opinion, the parlay calculator at Vegasinsider.com is the easiest one to use.  You can find this calculator at: http://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

First, we select $100 for the bet amount (you can put any other amount in this spot, but all of the PiRate Rating parlays are played at $100 per wager.  We simply input -250, -225-, and -180 adjacent to Team #1 Money Line, Team #2 Money Line, and Team #3 Money Line.  Then we click on “Calculate”, and we see the number $214.57 returned.  This means that if these three favorites we have selected all win their games, we will make a $214.57 profit and receive $314.57 in our account (The profit plus what we wagered).  If the three teams do not all win their games, we will be out the $100 we invested on this game.  It can be a headache to see two teams win their games, and then your final favored team loses in an upset due to a fourth quarter field goal, but it happens, and you have to live with it.

Our goal at the PiRate Ratings is to select parlays that return better than +120 odds, while betting mostly on favored teams.  We prefer to play no more than three games in a parlay, but there are times when we might play 6 or 7 prohibitive favorites when the odds look preferable.  We won a 7-team parlay once that returned +200 odds, and all 7 teams won by double-digits.  Of course, this is a rare event.  Every week, some big underdog will upset a favorite.  In recent weeks, we had some considerable underdogs pulling off big upsets.  Syracuse surprised Clemson.  Arizona State beat up on Washington, Arizona took out Washington State, Tulsa whipped Houston, Iowa State beat Oklahoma, and Troy beat LSU.  These sure things that could have been included on parlays destroyed the selections.

As usual, read this and understand it: The PiRates never wager real currency on our selections.  We enjoy the fun that mathematics married to athletics brings a group of math geeks.  We only wager imaginary money on these games, and thus we have no worries about issuing these picks.  They are strictly for the fun of it, and enjoying a winning week is a win for mathematics and not our bank accounts.

Enjoy the games, but be just as wealthy on Sunday morning as you are on Saturday morning.

 

October 23, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 26-28, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:05 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Toledo -29.0 -26.8 -29.3
Georgia St. South Alabama -0.7 -3.5 -1.1
Northern Illinois Eastern Michigan 1.1 1.3 1.6
Oregon St. Stanford -25.0 -23.9 -25.8
Boston College Florida St. -11.7 -10.5 -10.5
Memphis Tulane 12.3 11.5 11.9
SMU Tulsa 4.6 4.9 5.2
Purdue Nebraska 5.4 4.3 7.0
Kentucky Tennessee 6.4 6.9 7.7
South Carolina Vanderbilt 8.8 8.6 9.2
Akron Buffalo 4.2 4.3 2.7
South Florida Houston 13.5 12.7 14.7
Wake Forest Louisville -3.4 -3.8 -3.6
North Carolina Miami (Fla.) -19.1 -17.9 -19.6
Michigan Rutgers 20.0 20.2 19.5
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13.2 14.2 14.3
Massachusetts Appalachian St. -4.6 -3.5 -4.3
Pittsburgh Virginia 6.2 6.9 5.1
Clemson Georgia Tech 14.0 13.8 14.7
Connecticut Missouri -9.8 -5.3 -8.6
West Virginia Oklahoma St. -11.3 -9.7 -12.0
Maryland Indiana -0.9 0.4 -1.6
Virginia Tech Duke 18.5 18.7 20.2
Illinois Wisconsin -30.8 -26.5 -30.8
Coastal Carolina Texas St. 3.9 2.4 6.4
Deleted Game 0 0 0
Kansas Kansas St. -29.6 -26.4 -30.5
Iowa Minnesota 9.5 8.5 10.0
Wyoming New Mexico 7.2 6.1 5.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -3.1 -6.4 -4.3
BYU San Jose St. 15.0 14.8 15.1
UTEP UTSA -18.4 -17.3 -19.5
Idaho Louisiana-Monroe 1.8 2.5 3.3
Colorado St. Air Force 15.8 14.0 15.6
Southern Miss. UAB 17.4 15.2 15.8
Colorado California 3.9 4.7 3.2
Arizona St. USC -5.0 -5.3 -4.7
Rice Louisiana Tech -10.8 -11.4 -11.3
Oregon Utah 5.3 1.8 3.9
Notre Dame N. Carolina St. 5.7 4.9 6.3
Washington UCLA 23.7 21.8 24.7
Troy Georgia Southern 23.8 22.5 24.0
Northwestern Michigan St. 10.4 7.1 9.5
Deleted Game 0 0 0
North Texas Old Dominion 3.4 2.7 3.9
Baylor Texas -12.9 -11.7 -13.7
Iowa St. TCU -6.6 -4.1 -6.1
Florida (n) Georgia -12.3 -13.6 -13.5
Western Kentucky Florida Atlantic 0.6 -2.3 0.1
Arizona Washington St. -10.0 -8.7 -10.7
Oklahoma Texas Tech 20.3 19.3 21.5
Ole Miss Arkansas 6.4 5.5 5.6
Ohio St. Penn St. 9.0 8.4 7.8
Texas A&M Mississippi St. 1.4 -1.5 0.5
Utah St. Boise St. -6.4 -5.5 -6.4
Fresno St. UNLV 16.4 12.9 17.4
Hawaii San Diego St. -7.1 -6.2 -8.0
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Central Florida Austin Peay 41.0

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings

Ranks teams based on what they have done this season (like AP and Coaches Polls)

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Penn St.
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Notre Dame
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Miami (Fla)
10 Central Florida
11 Washington
12 Oklahoma St.
13 Oklahoma
14 Michigan St.
15 Stanford
16 Virginia Tech
17 North Carolina St.
18 Washington St.
19 USC
20 Auburn
21 South Florida
22 Michigan
23 Texas A&M
24 Mississippi St.
25 LSU
26 Iowa St.
27 Memphis
28 Georgia Tech
29 Toledo
30 West Virginia
31 Iowa
32 Boise St.
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona St.
35 Navy
36 Louisville
37 Fresno St.
38 San Diego St.
39 Arizona
40 Florida St.
41 Wake Forest
42 Texas
43 Northwestern
44 UCLA
45 Florida
46 Boston College
47 Texas Tech
48 Marshall
49 Colorado St.
50 Kentucky
51 SMU
52 Syracuse
53 Oregon
54 Northern Illinois
55 Indiana
56 California
57 Utah
58 Purdue
59 Virginia
60 Western Michigan
61 Houston
62 Troy
63 Minnesota
64 Maryland
65 Appalachian St.
66 Kansas St.
67 Army
68 Florida Atlantic
69 Duke
70 Pittsburgh
71 Southern Miss.
72 Nebraska
73 Colorado
74 Tennessee
75 Ohio
76 Ole Miss
77 Arkansas St.
78 Vanderbilt
79 Tulane
80 Akron
81 Arkansas
82 Air Force
83 Rutgers
84 Wyoming
85 North Texas
86 Utah St.
87 UTSA
88 New Mexico
89 Louisiana Tech
90 Florida Int’l.
91 Western Kentucky
92 Missouri
93 Tulsa
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Central Michigan
96 Cincinnati
97 Temple
98 North Carolina
99 Buffalo
100 New Mexico St.
101 Miami (O)
102 Georgia St.
103 Middle Tennessee
104 South Alabama
105 Connecticut
106 Illinois
107 Baylor
108 UL-Monroe
109 UAB
110 East Carolina
111 Nevada
112 UNLV
113 Hawaii
114 Oregon St.
115 BYU
116 UL-Lafayette
117 Old Dominion
118 Kent St.
119 Idaho
120 Bowling Green
121 Massachusetts
122 Kansas
123 Ball St.
124 Coastal Carolina
125 Rice
126 Charlotte
127 San Jose St.
128 UTEP
129 Georgia Southern
130 Texas St.

Predictive Ratings

Rates teams so that you can compare ratings (add home field advantage and subtract visiting team disadvantage) and determine a predicted spread

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
3 Penn St. 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
4 Georgia 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
5 Washington 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
6 Clemson 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
7 Auburn 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
8 Oklahoma St. 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
9 Virginia Tech 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
10 Oklahoma 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
11 Miami 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
12 Notre Dame 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
13 Wisconsin 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
14 Stanford 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
15 T C U 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
16 Florida St. 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
17 N. Carolina St. 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
18 Washington St. 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
19 U S C 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
20 L S U 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
21 Georgia Tech 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
22 Texas 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
23 Central Florida 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
24 Florida 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
25 Louisville 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
26 Michigan 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
27 Kansas St. 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
28 South Florida 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
29 Iowa State 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
30 Mississippi St. 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
31 Syracuse 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
32 Northwestern 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
33 West Virginia 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
34 Iowa 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
35 Texas A&M 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
36 Arizona St. 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
37 S. Carolina 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
38 Kentucky 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
39 Wake Forest 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
40 U C L A 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
41 Boston College 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
42 Duke 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
43 Colo. State 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
44 Colorado 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
45 Oregon 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
46 Indiana 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
47 Pittsburgh 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
48 Michigan St. 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
49 Memphis 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
50 Utah 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
51 Arizona 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
52 California 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
53 Texas Tech 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
54 Minnesota 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
55 Ole Miss 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
56 Purdue 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
59 Toledo 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
60 Vanderbilt 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
61 Virginia 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
62 Navy 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
63 Houston 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
64 Maryland 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
65 Arkansas 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
66 Nebraska 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
67 Baylor 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
68 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
69 N. Carolina 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
70 SMU 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
71 San Diego St. 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
72 Army 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
73 Missouri 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
74 Fresno St. 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
75 Tulsa 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
76 Eastern Michigan 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
77 Florida Atlantic 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
78 Tulane 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
79 Troy 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
80 Ohio U 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
82 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
83 Marshall 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
84 Appalachian St. 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
85 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
86 Northern Illinois 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
87 Utah St. 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
88 U T S A 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
89 Air Force 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
90 W. Kentucky 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
91 Temple 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
92 Oregon St. 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
93 Central Michigan 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
94 New Mexico 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
95 Miami (O) 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
96 Louisiana Tech 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
97 BYU 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
98 Massachusetts 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
99 Cincinnati 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
100 Illinois 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
101 N. Mexico St. 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
102 Southern Miss. 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
103 Akron 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
104 S. Alabama 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
105 Nevada 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
106 Connecticut 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
107 Buffalo 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
108 Hawaii 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
109 U N L V 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
110 Middle Tennessee 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
111 Florida Int’l. 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
112 N. Texas 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
113 Old Dominion 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
114 Georgia St. 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
115 East Carolina 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
116 UL-Lafayette 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
117 Kansas 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
118 UL-Monroe 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
119 Idaho 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
120 Bowling Green 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
121 Kent St. 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
122 San Jose St. 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
123 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
124 Georgia Southern 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
125 UAB 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
126 U T E P 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
127 Charlotte 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 Coastal Carolina 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
129 Ball St. 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
130 Texas St. 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0

PiRate  Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 4-0 6-0 113.0 114.4 114.3 113.9
South Florida 4-0 7-0 112.0 110.8 113.1 112.0
Temple 1-3 3-5 92.5 93.0 92.5 92.7
Cincinnati 0-4 2-6 87.1 89.1 88.4 88.2
Connecticut 2-3 3-4 86.0 88.3 86.2 86.8
East Carolina 1-3 2-6 82.1 83.7 81.9 82.6
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 3-1 6-1 104.8 104.2 105.0 104.6
Navy 3-2 5-2 101.4 102.1 101.6 101.7
Houston 2-2 4-3 101.5 101.0 101.4 101.3
SMU 2-1 5-2 98.1 98.5 98.4 98.3
Tulsa 1-3 2-6 96.5 96.6 96.1 96.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 95.5 95.6 96.1 95.7
             
AAC Averages     97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.5 124.9 127.0 126.5
Florida St. 2-3 2-4 120.7 119.5 119.3 119.9
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.3 117.6 118.4 118.1
Louisville 2-3 5-3 113.4 112.4 113.3 113.0
Syracuse 2-2 4-4 111.8 110.1 111.2 111.0
Wake Forest 1-3 4-3 107.6 106.1 107.2 106.9
Boston College 2-3 4-4 106.0 106.0 105.9 106.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 2-1 6-1 122.2 121.6 122.5 122.1
Miami 4-0 6-0 121.7 119.7 121.0 120.8
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 116.5 114.1 115.3 115.3
Duke 1-4 4-4 106.7 105.9 105.3 106.0
Pittsburgh 1-3 3-5 105.0 105.0 104.5 104.8
Virginia 2-1 5-2 101.8 101.1 102.3 101.8
N. Carolina 0-5 1-7 99.6 98.8 98.4 98.9
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 3-1 6-1 124.3 123.2 125.1 124.2
Oklahoma 3-1 6-1 121.6 120.6 122.0 121.4
T C U 4-0 7-0 120.9 118.6 121.4 120.3
Texas 2-2 3-4 114.1 114.5 114.8 114.5
Kansas St. 1-3 3-4 112.2 112.2 112.1 112.2
Iowa State 3-1 5-2 111.2 111.5 112.3 111.7
West Virginia 3-1 5-2 109.9 110.5 110.1 110.2
Texas Tech 1-3 4-3 104.3 104.2 103.5 104.0
Baylor 0-4 0-7 99.2 100.9 99.2 99.8
Kansas 0-4 1-6 80.6 83.7 79.6 81.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.9 133.3 135.8 135.0
Penn St. 4-0 7-0 129.9 127.9 131.0 129.6
Michigan 2-2 5-2 112.5 112.6 111.5 112.2
Indiana 0-4 3-4 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.0
Michigan St. 4-0 6-1 103.7 105.5 104.8 104.7
Maryland 1-3 3-4 100.9 102.3 100.6 101.2
Rutgers 2-2 3-4 95.5 95.4 95.0 95.3
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 4-0 7-0 122.0 118.9 120.7 120.6
Northwestern 2-2 4-3 111.2 109.6 111.3 110.7
Iowa 1-3 4-3 110.1 110.2 109.9 110.1
Minnesota 1-3 4-3 103.7 104.7 102.9 103.8
Purdue 1-3 3-4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.3
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.7 101.8 99.6 100.7
Illinois 0-4 2-5 88.2 89.5 86.9 88.2
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 3-0 4-3 94.5 96.9 95.9 95.8
Marshall 3-0 6-1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95.0
W. Kentucky 3-1 5-2 92.5 92.1 93.5 92.7
Middle Tennessee 1-3 3-5 84.3 85.5 84.9 84.9
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.7 84.0 84.5 84.1
Old Dominion 0-3 2-5 82.4 85.0 82.5 83.3
Charlotte 1-3 1-7 72.0 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 1-2 4-2 92.4 94.4 93.7 93.5
Louisiana Tech 1-2 3-4 88.4 90.1 89.2 89.3
Southern Miss. 3-1 5-2 87.4 88.6 87.9 87.9
N. Texas 3-1 4-3 82.9 84.6 83.4 83.6
Rice 1-2 1-6 75.1 76.2 75.4 75.6
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.5 75.8 74.5 74.3
U T E P 0-3 0-7 72.0 75.0 72.2 73.1
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   6-1 121.0 119.5 121.8 120.7
Army   6-2 97.8 97.9 98.3 98.0
BYU   1-7 88.9 88.8 88.3 88.6
Massachusetts   1-6 88.5 87.9 88.6 88.3
             
Indep. Averages     99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 3-1 6-2 94.8 95.9 95.8 95.5
Miami (O) 2-2 3-5 88.4 90.5 89.7 89.5
Akron 3-1 4-4 86.9 89.3 87.4 87.9
Buffalo 1-3 3-5 85.2 87.5 87.2 86.6
Bowling Green 1-3 1-7 78.7 79.6 79.1 79.1
Kent St. 1-3 2-6 77.0 78.6 77.3 77.6
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 3-0 6-1 102.2 102.2 103.7 102.7
Western Michigan 3-1 5-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 2-5 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 94.0 93.9 94.9 94.2
Central Michigan 2-2 4-4 91.2 92.1 91.6 91.6
Ball St. 0-3 2-5 70.7 72.9 71.9 71.8
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 4-0 6-2 105.8 104.6 105.9 105.4
Boise St. 3-0 5-2 103.9 102.2 103.7 103.3
Wyoming 2-1 4-3 95.6 94.3 94.5 94.8
Utah St. 2-2 4-4 94.5 93.7 94.3 94.2
Air Force 2-2 3-4 92.5 93.1 92.8 92.8
New Mexico 1-3 3-4 91.4 91.2 92.0 91.5
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-2 6-2 97.8 97.9 98.5 98.1
Fresno St. 4-0 5-2 97.7 96.3 98.6 97.6
Nevada 1-3 1-7 86.2 88.2 87.7 87.3
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.2 87.2 86.0 86.5
U N L V 1-3 2-5 84.3 86.4 84.2 85.0
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.9 77.0 76.2 76.7
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 3-1 6-1 127.3 124.6 127.7 126.5
Stanford 4-1 5-2 121.2 119.8 120.6 120.5
Washington St. 3-1 6-1 118.1 115.5 117.7 117.1
Oregon 1-4 4-4 106.2 104.1 104.9 105.1
California 1-4 4-4 105.6 103.3 103.9 104.3
Oregon St. 0-4 1-6 93.2 92.9 91.8 92.6
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 4-1 6-2 116.0 115.4 115.7 115.7
Arizona St. 3-1 4-3 108.1 107.1 108.0 107.7
U C L A 2-2 4-3 106.6 105.8 106.0 106.1
Colorado 1-4 4-4 106.5 105.0 104.2 105.2
Utah 1-3 4-3 103.9 105.3 103.9 104.4
Arizona 3-1 5-2 105.1 103.8 104.0 104.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 4-0 7-0 126.3 126.7 126.7 126.6
Florida 3-2 3-3 114.0 113.1 113.2 113.4
S. Carolina 3-2 5-2 108.3 107.3 107.4 107.7
Kentucky 2-2 5-2 107.7 106.5 107.0 107.1
Tennessee 0-4 3-4 104.3 102.6 102.3 103.1
Vanderbilt 0-4 3-4 102.5 101.7 101.2 101.8
Missouri 0-4 2-5 98.8 96.7 97.8 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 5-0 8-0 138.7 134.5 137.5 136.9
Auburn 4-1 6-2 126.1 124.0 126.2 125.4
L S U 3-1 6-2 115.9 114.0 116.4 115.4
Mississippi St. 2-2 5-2 111.4 112.0 111.6 111.7
Texas A&M 3-1 5-2 109.8 107.5 109.1 108.8
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 104.7 103.2 103.1 103.7
Arkansas 0-4 2-5 101.3 100.7 100.5 100.9
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 2-1 5-2 95.7 95.8 95.2 95.6
Arkansas St. 3-0 4-2 94.3 95.6 95.8 95.2
Appalachian St. 4-0 5-2 95.5 93.9 95.5 95.0
N. Mexico St. 1-2 3-4 88.7 86.7 89.0 88.1
S. Alabama 2-1 3-4 86.6 89.0 86.8 87.5
Georgia St. 2-1 3-3 83.4 83.0 83.2 83.2
UL-Lafayette 2-2 3-4 80.9 82.3 80.9 81.4
UL-Monroe 3-2 3-4 80.9 81.7 80.0 80.9
Idaho 1-2 2-5 79.7 81.2 80.4 80.4
Georgia Southern 0-2 0-6 74.3 75.8 73.7 74.6
Coastal Carolina 0-4 1-6 71.9 73.0 73.3 72.8
Texas St. 0-3 1-6 70.6 73.0 69.4 71.0
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.1 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.8 110.0 110.0 109.9
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.5 108.5 108.6
6 INDEP. 99.0 98.5 99.2 98.9
7 AAC 97.5 98.1 97.9 97.9
8 MWC 92.7 92.7 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
10 CUSA 83.9 85.6 84.7 84.7
11 Sun Belt 83.5 84.3 83.6 83.8

Playoff & Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC North Texas South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Houston Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Colorado St. Arizona
New Mexico CUSA MWC La. Tech Fresno St.
Camellia MAC SBC N. Illinois Troy
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Frisco AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Colorado] Fla. Int’l.
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Fla. Atlantic Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 SMU [UAB]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Mich. Arkansas St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Navy San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA Iowa St. Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Central Mich.] Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Utah
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Virginia [UTSA]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Syracuse Purdue
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Iowa USC
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Mississippi St.
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [Western Ky.] Boston Coll.
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech West Virginia
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Northwestern Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Georgia Tech Florida
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Oregon
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 N. Carolina St. Auburn
Arizona MWC SBC Wyoming Georgia St.
Cotton At-large At-large TCU Arizona St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Michigan South Carolina
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Texas Tech Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Wisconsin Washington
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Miami (Fla.) Penn St.
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Oklahoma St. Central Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Clemson Texas A&M
Rose Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. Georgia
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Notre Dame
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Stay Home in Front of Multiple TVs

Get your work done in time to be home at Noon Eastern Time this Saturday.  This is the week to move your TVs into the same room, have your laptop ready to stream, and watch yet another game on your phone.  We’ve seen New Year’s Days that don’t feature as many important games.  Let’s take a look at the top games.  Of course, you will also want to watch your favorite team as well, but these are the games of national interest with starting times and TV stations.

NOON EDT

Oklahoma State at West Virginia on ABC

3:30 PM EDT

Penn State at Ohio State on Fox

Georgia vs. Florida (@Jacksonville) on CBS

Michigan State at Northwestern on ESPN

North Carolina State at Notre Dame on NBC

TCU at Iowa State on ESPN2

8:00 PM EDT

Georgia Tech at Clemson on ABC or ESPN2 (depending on your location)

WORLD SERIES Game 4–Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros

9:30 PM EDT

Washington State at Arizona on Pac-12 Network

Note: Alabama is off this week.  The Crimson Tide return to action November 4 with their big game against LSU.  The Tigers are also off this week

The World Series

This World Series may not be the sexy matchup baseball fans clamored for, as a Dodgers-Yankees, Cubs-Yankees, or a Cubs-Indians rematch would have been quite a lot more exciting, but this is a very special World Series for stats-geeks like the PiRates.

Aside from the fact that we have two 100-win teams facing off in the Fall Classic for the first time since 108-54 Baltimore played 102-60 Cincinnati in 1970, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top two analytics teams in baseball.  Houston has the absolute best analytics department in all of professional sports, and Los Angeles is not too far behind.  Both teams have taken starting pitching to the next evolution in the game.  Neither team, outside of their aces, lets their starting pitchers go deep into games.  It would not suprise us to see the starting pitchers go 3 to 5 innings even if they are pitching effectively.  It is a new dawn in pitching.  Teams may soon start to pencil more than one name in their future starting lineup for first and second pitcher scheduled to appear in games.  A pitching rotation one day in the future could feature an 8-man rotation, with two pitchers scheduled to throw 3 to 5 innings per game, pitching on 3-days rest, rarely going past 75 pitches per appearance, and then leaving four relievers to fill in the gaps.  Iron Man Joe McGinnity would not recognize today’s brand of baseball, but then ole Joe only lasted 10 years in the Bigs and was basically washed up after the eighth season.

In our opinion, this has the chance to be the best World Series in many years, and the public should hope it can go seven games with Clayton Kerhsaw and Justin Verlander facing off in the final game.

When the two teams face off in Game 1 Tuesday night, there will be a third 100 in the equation.  The expected temperature in Chavez Ravine for the first pitch could be 100 degrees.  Pitching in heat like this will force both managers to go to their bullpens early and often.  The starting catchers may have a difficult time being ready for Game 2.  Most of all, in heat like this, expect fly balls to travel quite a bit farther than they normally would in the late afternoon at Dodger Stadium.  It may make the game look and feel like it is at Coors Field in Denver.

Pitching matchups for the first two games are:

Game 1–Clayton  Kershaw for LA and Dallas Keuchel for Hou

Game 2–Rich Hill for LA and Justin Verlander for Hou

Yu Darvish is set to pitch Game 3 for LA, but Houston has yet to decide on its starter.

World Series Schedule

All Games on Fox at 8:00 PM EDT (7 PM in Houston, 5 PM in Los Angeles)

Game 1: Tuesday, October 24

Game 2: Wednesday, October 25

Game 3: Friday, October 27

Game 4: Saturday, October 28

Game 5 (if necessary): Sunday, October 29

Game 6 (if necessary): Tuesday, October 31

Game 7 (if necessary): Wednesday, November 1

 

 

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