The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Monday, February 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:11 pm

February 18, 2019

Seed

School

Conf.

1

Gonzaga

West Coast

1

Duke

ACC

1

Virginia

ACC

1

Tennessee

SEC

2

Kentucky

SEC

2

Michigan St.

Big Ten

2

Michigan

Big Ten

2

North Carolina

ACC

3

Purdue

Big Ten

3

Houston

American Athletic

3

Kansas

Big 12

3

Nevada

Mountain West

4

LSU

SEC

4

Marquette

Big East

4

Iowa St.

Big 12

4

Virginia Tech

ACC

5

Louisville

ACC

5

Iowa

Big Ten

5

Texas Tech

Big 12

5

Wisconsin

Big Ten

6

Villanova

Big East

6

Maryland

Big Ten

6

Florida St.

ACC

6

Kansas St.

Big 12

7

Cincinnati

American Athletic

7

Buffalo

Mid-American

7

Auburn

SEC

7

Mississippi St.

SEC

8

Wofford

Southern

8

Washington

Pac-12

8

Baylor

Big 12

8

Ole Miss

SEC

9

TCU

Big 12

9

Texas

Big 12

9

North Carolina St.

ACC

9

Utah St.

Mountain West

10

St. John’s 

Big East

10

Syracuse

ACC

10

Minnesota

Big Ten

10

Central Florida

American Athletic

11

Temple

American Athletic

11

Oklahoma

Big 12

11

Clemson

ACC

11

Ohio St.

Big Ten

11

Seton Hall

Big East

12

Alabama

SEC

12

Butler

Big East

12

Hofstra

Colonial

12

Lipscomb

Atlantic Sun

12

Virginia Commonwealth

Atlantic 10

13

New Mexico St.

WAC

13

Belmont

Ohio Valley

13

Vermont

America East

13

Yale

Ivy League

14

Old Dominion

CUSA

14

South Dakota St.

Summit

14

UC Irvine

Big West

14

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

15

Texas St.

Sun Belt

15

Montana

Big Sky

15

Missouri St.

Missouri Valley

15

Radford

Big South

16

Bucknell

Patriot

16

Sam Houston St.

Southland

16

Rider

Metro Atlantic

16

Texas Southern

SWAC

16

St. Francis (PA)

Northeast

16

Norfolk St.

MEAC

 

First Four OUT

Indiana

Florida

Arizona St.

Furman

 

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Creighton

Davidson

Murray St.

 

Last Four IN

Ohio St.

Seton Hall

Alabama

Butler

 

Last Four BYES

Central Florida

Temple

Oklahoma

Clemson

 

First Four

For the first time this year, we have staggered the seed lines for the First Four games involving the final four at-large bids.  We have one game pitting 11-seeds and another game pitting 12-seeds.  This could change before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the First Four games have mostly  been with 11-seeds, but there have been 12-seeds, and even 13-seeds and 14-seeds earlier in this decade.

Because of the rule that no teams from the same conference can face off in the First Four games, we had to move two teams in the seed line to prevent a conference matchup in Dayton.

11-Seed Line: Ohio State vs. Seton Hall

12-Seed Line: Alabama vs. Butler

16-Seed Line: Rider vs. Norfolk St.

16-Seed Line: Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

 

There are four teams that if they lose in their conference tournament, they will still be an at-large entry, and their conference will improve from one to two bids.

Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference

Washington in the Pac-12 Conference

Wofford in the Southern Conference

Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference

 

There are four other Mid-Major teams that need to be in the discussion by the Selection Committee (in addition to the Mid-Majors already on our Bubble above).

Murray State (or Belmont) in the Ohio Valley Conference

Liberty (or Lipscomb) in the Atlantic Sun Conference

Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference

Toledo in the Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

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February 13, 2019

Bubbles Are Boiling

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:16 pm

Five Sundays from today, the NCAA Selection Committee will choose and seed the 68-team field for the NCAA Tournament.  At the present time, the Bubble list has begun to emerge with greater clarity.  There are about three dozen teams still competing for at-large bids, and more than half will not get into the Dance.

Some of the teams under consideration will eventually receive automatic bids when they win their conference tournaments.  On the other hand, there could be a few major upsets in the power conference tournaments forcing a bubble to pierce for one of these teams.

Let’s look at the principle boiling bubbles today.  We will let you decide if their resumes warrant bids or warrant bans to the NIT.

Team

Net

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Alabama

44

2-6

6-1

4-2

3-0

Arizona State

72

3-1

4-3

3-1

6-2

Baylor

32

3-5

7-1

1-0

5-2

Belmont

60

3-1

2-1

2-2

11-0

Butler

53

1-7

6-3

4-1

3-0

Central Florida

45

0-2

4-2

7-0

6-1

Clemson

39

2-6

2-2

5-0

6-0

Creighton

57

2-9

3-2

4-0

3-0

Davidson

68

0-2

3-1

6-3

8-0

Florida

42

1-9

3-1

3-1

5-0

Hofstra

51

0-2

0-1

4-1

16-0

Indiana

49

4-8

2-3

1-0

6-0

Lipscomb

30

2-3

2-1

2-0

12-0

Minnesota

58

3-6

4-2

4-0

5-0

New Mexico St.

59

0-1

2-1

8-2

9-0

North Carolina St

37

1-6

5-0

2-1

9-0

Ohio St.

36

4-5

3-2

4-0

5-0

Oklahoma

41

3-8

5-2

7-0

0-0

Ole Miss

35

3-7

3-0

4-0

6-0

Saint Mary’s

50

1-5

1-2

6-3

7-0

San Francisco

52

0-4

1-1

5-1

11-0

Seton Hall

69

2-6

7-1

2-2

3-0

St. John’s

48

4-4

4-1

2-2

8-0

TCU

33

1-7

5-0

7-0

4-0

Temple

55

1-5

5-1

4-1

7-0

Texas

34

4-6

4-4

3-1

3-0

Toledo

54

0-1

2-0

8-3

9-0

UNC Greensboro

46

1-3

1-0

5-0

13-0

Utah State

38

1-2

2-2

4-2

10-0

VCU

43

1-3

2-2

7-1

7-0

Wofford

28

2-4

3-0

4-0

9-0

Yale

62

0-3

1-0

5-1

8-0

 

Team

EFF.

SOS

Rd/Neut

Con

Ovr

Alabama

48

17

6-7

6-5

15-9

Arizona State

63

66

5-4

7-4

16-7

Baylor

34

50

5-4

7-4

16-8

Belmont

64

160

8-3

10-2

19-4

Butler

53

25

4-8

5-7

14-11

Central Florida

50

89

6-3

7-3

17-5

Clemson

31

36

4-6

5-5

15-8

Creighton

49

12

5-6

4-7

13-11

Davidson

75

106

7-6

9-2

18-6

Florida

38

29

5-7

4-6

12-11

Hofstra

67

225

7-4

11-1

21-4

Indiana

45

37

3-7

4-9

13-11

Lipscomb

33

204

9-3

11-0

20-4

Minnesota

56

51

5-6

6-7

16-8

New Mexico St.

54

134

9-3

9-1

20-4

North Carolina St

40

194

5-4

5-6

17-7

Ohio St.

32

49

6-3

6-6

16-7

Oklahoma

42

7

7-6

3-9

15-10

Ole Miss

39

63

7-4

6-4

16-7

Saint Mary’s

44

47

3-8

6-4

15-10

San Francisco

47

121

5-5

6-4

18-6

Seton Hall

66

40

6-6

5-6

14-9

St. John’s

52

57

7-4

6-6

18-7

TCU

37

20

6-5

5-6

17-7

Temple

76

56

8-5

7-4

17-7

Texas

28

3

4-6

6-6

14-11

Toledo

51

126

9-3

8-3

20-4

UNC Greensboro

80

188

10-2

11-1

22-3

Utah State

43

115

8-5

8-3

18-6

VCU

46

54

6-5

8-2

17-6

Wofford

30

133

8-3

13-0

21-4

Yale

72

123

7-4

5-1

15-4

 

Here’s an explanation of each column

Net: This is their official NCAA NET rating, the new and improved formula that supersedes all other, like the RPI.

Q1-Q4: These are the won-loss records for each quadrant.  The Quadrants are broken up into these groups.

Quadrant #

Home

Neutral

Road

Quadrant 1

1-30

1-50

1-75

Quadrant 2

31-75

51-100

76-135

Quadrant 3

76-160

101-200

136-240

Quadrant 4

161-353

201-353

241-353

If you play the #101 team at home, this is a Quadrant 3 opponent.  If you play the #101 team on their floor, this is a Quadrant 2 opponent.  If you host the #50 team, it counts as Quadrant 2, but if you play that team on a neutral floor or on the road, it is a Quadrant 1 game.

EFF.: This is the ranking in total efficiency, which is offensive efficiency combined with defensive efficiency and adjusted for strength of schedule.

SOS: This is the ranking of strengths of schedule for each team.  Keep in mind that the difference between #1 and #50 may be minimal, while the difference between #51 and #100 may be considerably more.

Rd/Neut: This is the combined road and neutral court won-loss records

Con and Ovr: Although not used by the Committee, this is the conference and overall won-loss records for each team for you to look at and decide for yourself if a certain team belongs in the Dance.  We are not 100% convinced that committee members don’t subconsciously let this stat creep into their decision-making process.  If a team finishes four games under .500 in their league while another finishes four game over .500, that four game swing is going to count for something, even if it isn’t supposed to count.

Trying To Think Like A Committee Member

Let’s look at each school on this list.

Alabama

With wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Committee might overlook losses to Northeastern and Georgia State.  Two of the Tide’s non-conference losses are to probable NCAA Tournament teams Central Florida and Baylor.  The Tide sits at 6-5 in the SEC and projects to a 10-8 or 11-7 final mark.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation with possibility of starting in Dayton.

Arizona St.

The Pac-12 surely cannot be limited to just one bid, can it?  The Committee is not supposed to look at this metric, but this is no different than when the judge tells the jury to disregard a remark from a sustained objection in a court room.  Of course, it is remembered.

Arizona State beat Kansas and Mississippi State.  This past weekend, they handed Washington their first Pac-12 loss.  The Sun Devils lost a close game to Nevada.  They also lost at home to Princeton and recently were blown out at home by Pac-12 cellar dweller Washington State by 21 points.  They also lost at SEC last place Vanderbilt by 16, and they barely beat SEC #13 Georgia.

Does the Kansas win and close loss to Nevada do enough for the Sun Devils?  Their NET rating is 72, and their strength of schedule is 66.  In their favor, Arizona State has a winning record away from Tempe.

Verdict: Sorry, nothing in the inbox but some ads for hotels near Madison Square Garden in late March that you probably won’t need.

Baylor

The Bears lost early in the season to some really weak teams in Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but the TSU loss may turn out to be to a future NCAA Tournament team.  At 7-4 in the Big 12 with wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and TCU, plus a sweep of Oklahoma, Baylor is on the inside as of now.  We project Baylor to finish 10-8 in the league, and with this league’s strength, Coach Scott Drew can sleep peacefully when his team is eventually ousted in the Big 12 Tournament.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and does not have to make travel arrangements to Dayton.

 

Belmont

Every year, Coach Rick Byrd has his Bruins among consideration for an NCAA Tournament bid, and this year is no different.  Belmont won at UCLA and Murray State, and they swept rival Lipscomb, who is in the top 30 and also in discussion for a potential at-large bid.  Among their losses is to Purdue in West Lafayette, but also among the losses are two to Jacksonville State.

We project Belmont to win out in the regular season to enter the OVC Tournament at 16-2 in the conference and 24-4 overall.  The Bruins will be the mild favorite to win the automatic bid, but Murray State, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville State will have shots as well.  If Belmont lost to Murray in the Championship Game and finished 26-5, the Bruins would have to be part of the at-large discussion.

Verdict: The Bruins need to win the automatic bid and then become a very game 12-seed.  Too many Bubble teams have to fold for Belmont to rise up and secure an at-large bid.  We believe as an automatic bid-winner and #12 seed, the Bruins are equipped with the talent and coaching to win their first tournament game after some near misses.

 

Butler

This Bulldogs team is not in the class with some of their recent NCAA Tournament teams.  A lone Quadrant 1 win came in a neutral contest with Florida, a team which they played a second time a month later and lost by close to 40 points.

The next most impressive victory is a home win over Ole Miss.  Butler’s NET rating of 53 is on the in-out line, but in their favor is a #25 strength of schedule

Verdict: We hear Dayton is lovely in March.  Even if it snows several inches, you will be very happy you got to visit Southwestern Ohio.  It’s an easy 2 hour drive.

 

Central Florida

The Golden Knights beat Alabama and Temple, and they lost to Houston.  UCF should get to 10 wins in the American Athletic Conference, but the Knights need to pull off one big win to solidify their at-large standing against their peers.  UCF will get that chance with games remaining with Cincinnati and Houston.  A sweep of South Florida might also be impressive enough to push them over the top.

Verdict: Hanging on to a First Four bid for now

 

Clemson

The Tigers don’t have many great wins on their schedule.  Their recent upset of Virginia Tech and an earlier win over Lipscomb are the only Quadrant 1 victories.  In their favor, they are 11-0 against Q3 and Q4 combined, so their losses have been to good or great teams.

We project CU to go 8-10 in ACC play, which in most years gets an ACC team into the field, whether it is deserved or not.  Clemson might need one more upset to complete their resume-building.  They certainly need to hold serve against the teams beneath them in the league.  A win tonight at Miami would be mighty.  We think that a win at home over Florida State, North Carolina, or Syracuse would give them all the juice they need.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation and probably not one to Dayton

 

Creighton

The Big East is top heavy with two superior teams and a half dozen good but not great teams.  At 4-7 in league play, the Blue Jays have a lot of work left to do to get onto the upper half of the Bubble.

The one thing keeping Creighton in the discussion currently is the fact that they have played 12 Quadrant 1 games so far and have a top 15 strength of schedule.  However, they are only 2-10 in those games.

Creighton’s next four games are must-win games.  The Blue Jays have to take care of Xavier tonight in Cincinnati and then beat Seton Hall, DePaul, and Georgetown to improve to 8-7 when they travel to Marquette in March.  A 6-1 finish from here would put CU at 10-8 in the league and 19-12 overall, where an opening round win in the Big East Tournament would give the Blue Jays a strong chance to get in.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if they meet the parameters set above.  As of today, we’d say their invitation would be to host a game in the NIT.

 

Davidson

Bob McKillop is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball.  While Davidson has an exceptional history of greatness thanks to what legendary coach Lefty Driesell did 50 years ago, those were different times.  Driesell recruited four or five players as good as Stephen Curry, and he brought Davidson to the top five of the rankings in 1964, 1965, 1968, and 1969.  McKillop inherited a mess when he took over this program that was coming off a 24-loss season plus the transfer of their one good player.  He’s now led the Wildcats for 30 seasons!

Of course, none of this means anything to the Selection Committee.  Davidson’s resume is iffy at this point, and without an automatic bid, it looks like a slim possibility.  Their only quality win to date is a home game victory over conference co-contender Virginia Commonwealth.  This is their only win against a top 100 team, and it came at home.  Unless they face VCU in the Conference Tournament, they will face just one other top 100 team the rest of the way.  The stars just don’t align for the Wildcats this year.

Verdict: They better win the automatic bid or plan on playing in the NIT, CBI, or CIT

 

Florida

Coach Michael White is underachieving in Gainesville, and, following in the footsteps of Billy Donovan, could find his seat heating up quickly if the Gators miss out on this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Florida’s schedule is the only reason why at 4-6 in the SEC and 12-11 overall that they are still in consideration as an at-large team.  The Gators are looking at 8-10 in the league and 16-15 overall.  With that record, they will have to win at least three SEC Tournament games to even be in the final discussion.

Verdict: One of the biggest disappointments of the season does not receive an NCAA bid and may not receive an NIT bid either

 

Hofstra

Make no bones about it, Hofstra is not a real at-large candidate.  However, we wanted to list the Pride here to show you their resume.  At 21-4, the Pride has no Q1 or Q2 wins.  They are 16-0 against Q4, and their strength of schedule ranks 225.  We wanted to show them to you so you can compare them with the other Mid-major teams on this list.  We could have also shown you UC-Irvine, a team in a similar boat with Hofstra, while Wofford, UNC Greensboro, Belmont, and Lipscomb have some tiny at-large hopes.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only if it is automatic

 

Indiana

This was supposed to be a much better year in Hoosierland, and like his brother Sean, Archie Miller has come under fire.  IU was supposed to contend with the Michigan schools and Purdue for the Big Ten title.  Instead, the Hoosiers find themselves mired in a tenth place tie in the Big Ten at 4-9/13-11.

Indiana has the bare minimum criteria to squeak in as a fortunate bubble team.  Their NET rating is just under 50, and most power league teams in the top 50 get into the field.  Their strength of schedule is 37, and this is okay for any major conference team on the bubble.  Their efficiency rating is also okay at 45, not great but adequate enough for a Big Ten team.

With 12 Quadrant 1 games and wins in four of those contests, the Hoosiers have proven they can compete at the top of the game.  Of their seven remaining games, five are against tough opponents, and Indiana needs to win two of those five games and four overall to enter the Big Ten Tournament not needing to win three games to feel comfortable about getting an at-large bid.

Verdict: At the present time, we have them as the #68 team in the field, and they would be slotted to go to Dayton, where they might have to play Butler. What a rivalry game played close enough for the fans to make the commute by car!

 

Lipscomb

The Atlantic Sun Conference is mid-major at best and borders on low-major status, but Florida Gulf Coast proved this league has the ability to send teams to the Sweet 16.

Lipscomb made its first NCAA Tournament appearance last year and scared North Carolina for a half.  This Bisons team is better than last year, and the former NAIA superpower might be talented enough to replicate what FGCU did earlier in the decade.

Lipscomb has played five Q1 games, all on the road and won twice, once against TCU.  They have no bad losses, going 14-0 against Q3 & Q4.  Among their losses is a four-pointer at Louisville.

If Lipscomb beats Liberty tonight in Nashville to complete the season sweep, they will almost assuredly win out to finish 16-0/25-4 before hosting all their conference tournament games.  It would take a lot to not be the automatic qualifier, but in the event they lost to Liberty in the finals, they would be 27-5 with a lot of positives on their resume.

Verdict: The Bisons are a very likely automatic qualifier, but if they were 27-5, it would take a lot of statistics-bending to exclude them from the at-large pool.  However, we have faith that the Selection Committee would find ways to ship Lipscomb to the NIT in favor of the ninth place team in the ACC or 10th place team in the Big Ten or even the fifth best Big East team, or even TCU who lost at home to this Lipscomb team.

 

Minnesota

Richard Pitino, Saul Phillips, Murray Bartow, and Bryce Drew know what it is like to have fathers that enjoyed long, successful careers in college basketball.  They also know what it is like to have their team’s fanatics wishing that those great coaches had created daughters rather than sons.  Pitino is on very thin ice in Minneapolis, and the Gophers must make the Big Dance if Pitino is to stay employed in the Cities in 2020.

The Gophers are in 8th place in the Big Ten with a 16-8 record overall.  This is just enough to meet the minimum for a Big Ten team.  Their NET rating is 59, which is right on the line for average lowest rating that gets in.  Three Quad 1 wins and a 5-6 record away from home gives the Gophers a decent shot at making the field.

Minnesota’s closing schedule could cinch their bid or kill their chances.  Their more winnable games are on the road, and the tougher opponents must come to Minneapolis.  Tonight’s game at Nebraska could be a bell-weather contest.  A loss might open the door for another bubble team to step up and pass the Gophers.

Verdict: For now, we believe the Selection Committee would send the Gophers an Invitation and even allow them to avoid the First Four.  However, a 3-4 finish to give UM a 9-11 mark in the league and 19-12 overall might put Minny on the wrong side of the Bubble if they lost their first Big Ten Tournament game.  Pitino loses his job if UM misses the Dance.

 

New Mexico St.

New Mexico State is not getting an at-large bid, even if the Aggies win out until the WAC Championship Game and then lose to Grand Canyon or Cal St. Bakersfield by one point in overtime.

Let’s look at their resume.  They lost at Kansas by three points, and that was their only Q1 game.  Even had they beaten Kansas by three, their resume is too thin with just one Q1 game.

NMSU is just one spot behind Minnesota in the NET Ratings, and the Aggies are 9-3 away from Las Cruces.  However, their strength of schedule rates at number 134, and we learned from the top-16 seed reveal last week just how much this year’s Committee valued strength of schedule.

Verdict: No At-large chance, but we believe this team could be 30-4 when they win the WAC’s automatic bid.  Coach Chris Jans has overcome a lot of adversity to resurrect his career.  NMSU will be a dangerous 12 or 13 seed.

 

North Carolina St.

Kevin Keatts is one of our favorite basketball coaches.  We are in high regard of his ability to evaluate talent and alter his schemes to best exploit opponent weaknesses and utilize his talent.  Even that embarrassing oops loss to Virginia Tech does not alter our opinion.  Keatts is a Final Four coach of the future, be it here or some place else.

This Wolf Pack team is not going to advance very far in the NCAA Tournament, but they will almost definitely receive a bid based on their results so far.

When an ACC team has a top 40 NET rating, they are going dancing.  NCSU is presently #39.  The Wolf Pack currently has a winning record away from Raleigh.

All is not peachy though with their resume.  Their Strength of Schedule is an unheard of for an ACC team #194, because they played six of the bottom 34 teams in Division 1, including the two weakest of all.  State only has one Q1 win all year, a home victory over Auburn which looks less impressive now than it did then.

The Pack can easily finish the regular season on a 5-2 sprint to a 10-8 regular season conference record, which gets an ACC team an at-large bid better than 95% of the time.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation as one of the last teams in that do not play in the First Four

 

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes really should not be in this discussion.  The only reason why we include them here is that they still need to avoid a total collapse.  At 6-6/16-7, if OSU goes 3-5 down the stretch, they will get into the field.

Road wins over Cincinnati, Indiana, and Creighton are impressive enough already, but we see the Buckeyes finishing no worse than 4-4 and possibly 5-3 to make their selection quite easy.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Oklahoma

Can a team that is 3-9 in their conference really be in the hunt for an at-large bid?  Oklahoma certainly hopes so, and thanks to the Big 12’s overall concentration of power, the Sooners do have a legitimate chance to get into the Field of 68 with a conference mark no better than 7-11.

In OU’s favor is a schedule that faced no Q4 teams and just seven Q3 teams.  Oklahoma went 7-0 in those games.  Their overall strength of schedule is #7, which means that a winning overall record is going to be enough to give them a chance.

Oklahoma has six games remaining prior to the league tourney, and if they go 3-3 with one of those wins coming against Kansas, and then they win their first Big 12 Tournament game, the Sooners will be in good enough shape to expect great things on March 17.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they go 3-3 plus one Big 12 Tournament win

 

Ole Miss

Ole Miss is 16-7, and all seven of their losses came to Q1 teams!  They have three Q1 wins, including one on the road against Mississippi State.

A 35 NET rating and 39 Efficiency rating makes their resume complete.  At this point, Ole Miss is competing for a 7 or 8 seed and not needing to worry about missing out on the Dance, unless they totally collapse.  Coach Kermit Davis has done an incredible job in his first year in Oxford.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Saint Mary’s

The Gaels have received an at-large bid in the past, but they also beat Gonzaga in the past.  This year, it appears out of reach, and a 11-5/22-12 final record (the best possible without beating Gonzaga, is most likely to fall short of the minimum needed criteria.

Verdict: SMC is going to have to beat Gonzaga to have any chance, and most likely, that win will have to come in the finals of the WCC Tournament, which would then give the Gaels the automatic bid and Gonzaga an at-large bid at the expense of another team on this list.

 

San Francisco

At one time earlier this year, USF looked like a potential at-large team.  A 13-point loss at home to Gonzaga followed by losses at Saint Mary’s and San Diego, basically necessitated winning at Gonzaga to have a real chance.  The Zags ran the Dons off the floor, ending USF’s at-large possibilities.

Verdict: No bid unless USF pulls off the upset and wins the West Coast Tournament Championship.  We cannot see USF beating Gonzaga, but if the Dons earn the #2 or #3 seed in the conference tournament, while BYU earns the #4 seed, then the Dons could hope that the Cougars upset Gonzaga, giving them a chance to knock off BYU for the automatic bid.

 

Seton Hall

Seton Hall is in a similar boat to Butler and Creighton in the up and down Big East race.  The Pirates have some pluses and some minuses in their quest to get a bid.

On the plus side are wins over Kentucky and Maryland, but countering those two great Q1 victories are losses at home to St. Louis and DePaul.  Three of their Q1 losses were by five points or less, and they have only played seven games against Q3 & Q4 teams.

With a 69 NET Rating, the Pirates need to improve their standing in the last five weeks.  The schedule is quite tough with the top two Big East teams (Villanova and Marquette) still on the schedule, and the Hall has road games with Creighton, St. John’s, and Georgetown.  We expect SHU to enter the Big East Tournament at 7-11/16-14, and the Big East is not strong enough for a team with fewer than 10 conference wins or nine with a couple of conference tournament wins to get in.

Verdict: Looks like they will be disappointed on Selection Sunday without an upset of Marquette or Villanova and a 9-9 Big East record

 

St. John’s

St. John’s is only a half-game in front of Seton Hall, but their resume might as well be 20 games ahead.  The Red Storm have played a much tougher schedule this year, and schedule strength appears to be very important, just behind NET Ratings, with the Committee.  Sweeps of Marquette and Creighton with their worst loss coming against DePaul gives SJU a strong shot at making the field.  Add a 7-4 record away from home, and the Red Storm would have to collapse to miss out this year.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation, probably an 8 or 9 seed

 

TCU

Like Ole Miss, all of TCU’s losses have come to Quadrant 1 teams.  They are 16-0 against all others.  A 33 NET rating and 20 Strength of Schedule Rating puts the Horned Frogs well up into the good graces of the Selection Committee.

TCU should be no worse than 9-9 in the Big 12, and when a league is as strong up and down as this one, the 9-9 team always gets into the field.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Temple

When a top 10 team has just one loss all year, the team that beat them gets added oomph in their resume.  Temple gave Houston their only loss so far this year.  The Owls lost their other five Q1 games to date.

Temple’s NET Rating is 55, which puts them on the Bubble for sure.  Their Strength of Schedule is 56, which is at the bottom of the allowed SOS for an at-large team.  An 8-5 record away from home (7-4 away from the City of Brotherly Love) makes their criteria smack dab in the hunt as one of the final teams in our highest teams out.

Temple can go 5-2 the rest of the regular season to finish at 12-6 in the league.  With a win in the AAC Tournament, that would give the Owls at least 23 wins, and that would leave them exactly where they are now–in the middle of the discussion between teams number 67 and 70.  A win at South Florida this weekend would really help.

 

Texas

The Longhorns have the worst record of teams that appear to be in good shape with the Selection Committee.  At 6-6/14-11, UT still has work to do just to guarantee a plus .500 record.  They have played the third toughest schedule in the nation, and they own wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor.

Add a 34 NET Rating and 28 Efficiency Rating, and Texas only needs to get enough wins down the stretch to guarantee an at-large bid.  A 9-9 Big 12 record does the trick.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation

 

Toledo

The PiRate Ratings are big fans of the Mid-Major conferences that have been around for decades, and the MAC is one of those leagues.  Toledo was really good back in the late 1960’s when Steve Mix played for the Rockets prior to starting in the NBA.  Success has been limited for Toledo on the hardwoods since then.

This Toledo team has no chance of securing an at-large bid, and with a 30-point loss to Buffalo, it is hard to see them getting revenge in the championship game of the MAC Tournament.  Still, we include them in this write-up, because the MAC Tournament is always competitive, and the top-seeded team loses in it more than the average conference.

Toledo is one of three or four teams that could upset Buffalo, although this year’s Buffalo team has all the tools to sweep the regular season and conference tournament.  However, if Buffalo loses, then obviously another team must win the automatic bid, while Buffalo bursts a Bubble for another team as a certain at-large team.

A 9-3 record away from home makes this a dangerous team in Cleveland.  Toledo will waltz into Cleveland as the number one seed from the West Division, so Buffalo will have to beat two others before the Rockets will have to glare at the Bulls in a possible title game.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation only bid winning automatic bid, but Buffalo still gets in if they lose the MAC Tournament

 

UNC Greensboro

This is a team no favorite from a power conference will want to see in a potential Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.  UNCG is a tough matchup, and the Spartans have a unique style that is hard to prepare for on a couple day’s notice.

With a 46 NET Rating, UNCG is worthy of an at-large bid if they were to win out all the way to the Socon Championship Game and lose a close one to Wofford.  The Spartans are 10-2 away from Greensboro, but their issue is a schedule that is rated 188 (which is still ahead of North Carolina State).

If UNCG is to earn enough respect to be in the at-large pool, the Spartans must win their two big games this week.  They play at Furman tonight, and then meet Wofford in Spartanburg Saturday.  If UNCG wins out but loses in the SoCon Championship Game, they will be 30-4 and in the mix for one of the last four bids.

 

Utah St.

With a 38 NET Rating and 43 Efficiency Rating, Utah State should be in the almost safe range for an at-large bid, but the Aggies are still on the outside looking in thanks to a strength of schedule rated 115.  Utah State has seven regular season games left, and if they win out, they will enter the MWC Tournament at 15-3/25-6.  Most importantly, if they win out, it will mean the Aggies beat Nevada.  The boys from Reno come to Logan on March 2.  USU almost has to win that game to have any serious at-large chances, but they also have a chance to win the automatic bid in the tough Mountain West.  Nevada won the MWC last year and failed to make the tournament title game as the number one seed, so history could repeat.

Verdict: We believe the Aggies deserve an at-large bid as of today, and for now we will give the Selection Committee the benefit of the doubt in realizing that they deserve to be in

 

Virginia Commonwealth

At the current time, we actually have VCU as the likely automatic bid winner from the Atlantic 10, ahead of Davidson, but we included the Rams here to show you how close they are to qualifying as an at-large team.

VCU has a 43 NET Rating, 54 Strength of Schedule, and 46 Efficiency Rating.  This is already better than some of the other teams thought to be among the last four in and first four out.  They have a 6-5 record away from home and won at Texas.  They suffered narrow losses to Virginia and St. John’s.

We project VCU to finish 15-3 in the A-10 and 24-7 overall in the regular season.  If they lose in the conference tournament and finish 26-8, the Rams will be in the mix for an at-large bid.

Verdict: We believe VCU has the best chance of winning the A-10 Tournament and the automatic bid, but if they lose in the Championship Game, the Rams still have a chance depending on how many Power Conferences have major upsets or if teams like Buffalo and Nevada lose in their conference tournaments

Wofford

If we told you that an anonymous team was ranked 28 in the NET Ratings with the number 30 Efficiency Rating, and with a 20-point road win at the number four team in the SEC, and with four losses all year to North Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma, you might reply that Auburn or Texas Tech will obviously make the NCAA Tournament, guessing from the information given that one of these two teams must be that anonymous team.

Mention Wofford to 99% of the general college basketball fandom public, and you are very likely to hear such fanatic tell you that they will be another one of those first round 25-point losers to some Big Ten team.

Wofford and UNC Greensboro both probably belong in the NCAA Tourmament.  Unfortunately, one of these two are likely to be team number 69, 70, 71, or 72.

Verdict: Receives an Invitation if they earn the automatic bid

 

Yale

There has never been an at-large Ivy League team, and there isn’t going to be one this year, even if Yale is probably better than a couple of teams seriously on the Bubble.

The Bulldogs’ best win is a neutral court victory over Miami of Florida.  Their resume won’t get them an at-large bid.  We project the Bulldogs to go 12-2 in the Ivy League to earn the top seed in the four-team tournament.  We also project Yale to win the Tournament to finish 24-5, where they will earn no better than a 13 seed and possible a 14 seed.  At 13, there are multiple potential 4 seeds that could be uspet by this Yale team.

 

January 18, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, January 18, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:00 am

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads For Major Conferences & Ranked Teams

Saturday’s Games
Home Team Visitor Spread
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina -6.2
Notre Dame North Carolina St. -2.9
Syracuse Pittsburgh 8.6
Virginia Tech Wake Forest 18.1
Georgia Tech Louisville -2.6
Duke Virginia 4.8
South Florida Houston -7.0
Wichita St. Cincinnati -4.9
Central Florida Tulsa 9.9
Memphis SMU 2.1
Temple Penn 5.4
Connecticut Tulane 15.7
West Virginia Kansas 3.5
Kansas St. TCU -0.3
Baylor Texas Tech -3.5
Iowa St. Oklahoma St. 12.5
Texas Oklahoma 2.0
Butler St. John’s 3.4
Seton Hall DePaul 8.0
Wisconsin Michigan 0.3
Purdue Indiana 5.9
Minnesota Penn St. 2.8
Nevada Air Force 22.3
Washington St. Stanford -1.1
USC UCLA -0.1
Washington California 17.2
Arizona Oregon St. 4.9
Arizona St. Oregon 1.3
Georgia Florida -4.3
Ole Miss Arkansas 5.8
Tennessee Alabama 14.1
Texas A&M Missouri 3.1
Auburn Kentucky 4.5
LSU South Carolina 8.6
Vanderbilt Mississippi St. -3.6
Gonzaga Loyola Marymount 21.9

 

Sunday’s Games
Home Team Visitor Spread
Boston College Florida St. -5.7
Marquette Providence 8.0
Iowa Illinois 9.7
Utah Colorado -0.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk Team PiRate
1 Duke 122.9
2 Virginia 121.6
3 Gonzaga 120.6
4 Michigan St. 120.2
5 Tennessee 119.1
6 North Carolina 117.3
7 Michigan 116.8
8 Virginia Tech 116.0
9 Kansas 115.9
10 Auburn 115.7
11 Texas Tech 115.4
12 Nebraska 114.8
13 Kentucky 114.7
14 Purdue 114.5
15 Iowa St. 114.5
16 Nevada 114.5
17 Wisconsin 113.6
18 Buffalo 113.4
19 North Carolina St. 113.0
20 TCU 113.0
21 Villanova 112.8
22 Maryland 112.4
23 Florida St. 112.4
24 Louisville 112.2
25 Ohio St. 112.0
26 Florida 111.9
27 Oklahoma 111.9
28 Mississippi St. 111.9
29 Iowa 111.7
30 Houston 111.7
31 Indiana 111.6
32 Marquette 111.6
33 Cincinnati 111.5
34 Syracuse 111.2
35 LSU 111.1
36 Texas 110.9
37 Saint Mary’s 110.6
38 Butler 110.4
39 Wofford 110.4
40 Mississippi 110.2
41 St. John’s 110.0
42 Clemson 109.8
43 Oregon 109.7
44 Kansas St. 109.7
45 Creighton 109.4
46 Central Florida 109.3
47 Utah St. 109.1
48 Washington 109.0
49 Murray St. 109.0
50 Lipscomb 108.9
51 Baylor 108.9
52 Seton Hall 108.7
53 San Francisco 108.7
54 Arizona 108.7
55 Arizona St. 108.0
56 Alabama 108.0
57 Northwestern 107.9
58 Fresno St. 107.9
59 Virginia Commonwealth 107.6
60 Miami FL 107.6
61 Arkansas 107.4
62 Temple 107.1
63 Liberty 107.1
64 Dayton 107.0
65 New Mexico St. 106.9
66 Penn St. 106.9
67 West Virginia 106.8
68 Oregon St. 106.8
69 Minnesota 106.7
70 Toledo 106.7
71 Pittsburgh 106.6
72 Georgia Tech 106.6
73 Notre Dame 106.6
74 Providence 106.6
75 UCLA 106.5
76 Vermont 106.4
77 East Tennessee St. 106.3
78 South Dakota St. 106.1
79 Xavier 106.0
80 Hofstra 106.0
81 Colorado 105.7
82 Connecticut 105.7
83 Davidson 105.6
84 Ball St. 105.6
85 Georgetown 105.6
86 SMU 105.6
87 Oklahoma St. 105.5
88 Illinois 105.5
89 South Carolina 105.5
90 BYU 105.5
91 Loyola (Chi.) 105.4
92 Vanderbilt 105.3
93 Belmont 105.1
94 Yale 105.1
95 Furman 104.9
96 USC 104.9
97 San Diego 104.8
98 Memphis 104.7
99 Texas A&M 104.7
100 Northeastern 104.7
101 Saint Louis 104.6
102 Georgia 104.6
103 Northern Kentucky 104.6
104 Missouri 104.6
105 Georgia St. 104.6
106 Western Kentucky 104.5
107 Grand Canyon 104.4
108 Old Dominion 104.3
109 UNC Greensboro 104.3
110 Boise St. 104.2
111 Texas St. 104.1
112 Montana 103.9
113 Rhode Island 103.9
114 Boston College 103.7
115 DePaul 103.7
116 Wichita St. 103.6
117 UC Irvine 103.5
118 Georgia Southern 103.5
119 North Texas 103.5
120 George Mason 103.4
121 Rutgers 103.4
122 Austin Peay 103.4
123 Charleston 103.4
124 Jacksonville St. 103.4
125 Penn 103.2
126 Akron 103.2
127 San Diego St. 103.1
128 Harvard 102.9
129 Utah Valley 102.9
130 Drake 102.8
131 Louisiana Tech 102.8
132 UC Santa Barbara 102.5
133 Brown 102.5
134 Tulsa 102.4
135 Stanford 102.3
136 Radford 102.3
137 Marshall 102.2
138 Utah 102.2
139 Northern Illinois 102.1
140 Southern Illinois 101.8
141 South Florida 101.7
142 Rider 101.7
143 Loyola Marymount 101.7
144 Bowling Green 101.6
145 Bucknell 101.5
146 Louisiana Monroe 101.5
147 Wake Forest 101.4
148 Stony Brook 101.2
149 Central Michigan 100.9
150 UNLV 100.8
151 Louisiana 100.8
152 Lehigh 100.8
153 Wright St. 100.8
154 St. Bonaventure 100.6
155 Massachusetts 100.4
156 Winthrop 100.4
157 Southern Miss 100.3
158 Valparaiso 100.3
159 Princeton 100.1
160 Gardner Webb 100.1
161 Kent St. 100.0
162 Weber St. 100.0
163 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.0
164 Duquesne 99.9
165 Samford 99.9
166 Saint Joseph’s 99.8
167 Colgate 99.6
168 Richmond 99.6
169 Eastern Michigan 99.6
170 Evansville 99.5
171 UAB 99.5
172 Abilene Christian 99.4
173 Holy Cross 99.4
174 NJIT 99.3
175 Seattle 99.3
176 New Mexico 99.3
177 Northern Colorado 99.2
178 Pacific 99.2
179 Illinois St. 99.1
180 Coastal Carolina 99.1
181 Ohio 99.0
182 Mercer 99.0
183 Miami OH 98.9
184 Pepperdine 98.7
185 Indiana St. 98.6
186 Omaha 98.6
187 Cal St. Fullerton 98.6
188 Cal St. Bakersfield 98.5
189 Dartmouth 98.5
190 American 98.5
191 Missouri St. 98.5
192 IUPUI 98.5
193 Long Beach St. 98.4
194 North Florida 98.4
195 Texas Southern 98.2
196 Washington St. 98.2
197 Hawaii 98.2
198 Green Bay 97.8
199 Troy 97.8
200 Northern Iowa 97.7
201 Iona 97.7
202 South Dakota 97.7
203 Hartford 97.6
204 Western Michigan 97.5
205 Colorado St. 97.5
206 UTSA 97.4
207 William & Mary 97.4
208 Florida Int’l. 97.3
209 Appalachian St. 97.2
210 Presbyterian 97.1
211 North Dakota St. 97.1
212 Boston University 97.1
213 Santa Clara 97.0
214 Campbell 97.0
215 High Point 97.0
216 Fordham 97.0
217 Little Rock 96.8
218 Sam Houston St. 96.8
219 Detroit 96.8
220 Illinois Chicago 96.7
221 Delaware 96.7
222 Florida Atlantic 96.7
223 Bradley 96.7
224 The Citadel 96.5
225 Oakland 96.5
226 Wagner 96.5
227 Columbia 96.4
228 Eastern Kentucky 96.3
229 Hampton 96.2
230 Maryland Baltimore Co. 96.1
231 South Alabama 96.1
232 UNC Wilmington 96.1
233 La Salle 95.9
234 California Baptist 95.9
235 East Carolina 95.9
236 UT Arlington 95.8
237 Lamar 95.8
238 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.8
239 Charleston Southern 95.7
240 UMass Lowell 95.7
241 Missouri Kansas City 95.6
242 Army 95.5
243 Canisius 95.5
244 Stephen F. Austin 95.4
245 Cornell 95.3
246 St. Francis PA 95.3
247 Sacred Heart 95.3
248 Fairfield 95.3
249 Quinnipiac 95.3
250 UC Davis 95.3
251 Air Force 95.2
252 Morehead St. 95.1
253 Idaho St. 95.1
254 James Madison 95.1
255 Long Island 95.1
256 UT Rio Grande Valley 95.0
257 Marist 95.0
258 George Washington 94.9
259 Drexel 94.9
260 California 94.8
261 North Dakota 94.8
262 Robert Morris 94.7
263 UTEP 94.5
264 Siena 94.4
265 Houston Baptist 94.3
266 Arkansas St. 94.3
267 Chattanooga 94.2
268 Longwood 94.2
269 Norfolk St. 94.2
270 Montana St. 94.2
271 Sacramento St. 94.1
272 St. Francis (Bkln) 94.1
273 Florida Gulf Coast 94.0
274 Jacksonville 94.0
275 Monmouth 94.0
276 Central Arkansas 94.0
277 New Orleans 93.9
278 North Carolina Central 93.8
279 Towson 93.8
280 Eastern Washington 93.8
281 Central Connecticut 93.7
282 Milwaukee 93.6
283 Prairie View A&M 93.6
284 Southern Utah 93.6
285 Portland St. 93.5
286 Tulane 93.5
287 Middle Tennessee 93.4
288 UC Riverside 93.2
289 Cleveland St. 93.1
290 Nicholls St. 93.0
291 Saint Peter’s 93.0
292 North Carolina A&T 93.0
293 Rice 92.9
294 Texas A&M-CC 92.9
295 Grambling St. 92.8
296 Charlotte 92.8
297 Oral Roberts 92.8
298 Youngstown St. 92.8
299 Niagara 92.7
300 Albany 92.7
301 Navy 92.6
302 Tennessee St. 92.6
303 Western Carolina 92.6
304 Western Illinois 92.6
305 Eastern Illinois 92.5
306 Loyola (MD) 92.5
307 Southeast Missouri St. 92.4
308 Lafayette 92.3
309 Wyoming 92.2
310 McNeese St. 92.2
311 Denver 92.1
312 Bethune Cookman 92.0
313 Northern Arizona 91.9
314 Cal St. Northridge 91.8
315 Howard 91.5
316 Southeastern Louisiana 91.4
317 UT Martin 91.1
318 Cal Poly 91.0
319 Portland 90.9
320 USC Upstate 90.8
321 Alabama St. 90.7
322 VMI 90.6
323 Idaho 90.3
324 North Alabama 90.2
325 Binghamton 90.1
326 Maine 90.1
327 Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.0
328 Morgan St. 89.9
329 Elon 89.8
330 Manhattan 89.7
331 Florida A&M 89.2
332 South Carolina St. 89.2
333 Jackson St. 89.2
334 Mount St. Mary’s 89.0
335 Bryant 88.9
336 Tennessee Tech 88.9
337 SIU Edwardsville 88.8
338 San Jose St. 88.3
339 New Hampshire 88.1
340 Southern 88.0
341 Northwestern St. 86.8
342 Stetson 86.7
343 Incarnate Word 86.0
344 Kennesaw St. 85.4
345 Alabama A&M 85.0
346 Alcorn St. 84.4
347 Coppin St. 84.4
348 Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
349 Savannah St. 83.8
350 UNC Asheville 83.7
351 Chicago St. 82.1
352 Maryland Eastern Shore 81.9
353 Delaware St. 80.9

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

America East
Vermont 106.4
Stony Brook 101.2
Hartford 97.6
Maryland Baltimore Co. 96.1
UMass Lowell 95.7
Albany 92.7
Binghamton 90.1
Maine 90.1
New Hampshire 88.1
American Athletic
Houston 111.7
Cincinnati 111.5
Central Florida 109.3
Temple 107.1
Connecticut 105.7
SMU 105.6
Memphis 104.7
Wichita St. 103.6
Tulsa 102.4
South Florida 101.7
East Carolina 95.9
Tulane 93.5
Atlantic 10
Virginia Commonwealth 107.6
Dayton 107.0
Davidson 105.6
Saint Louis 104.6
Rhode Island 103.9
George Mason 103.4
St. Bonaventure 100.6
Massachusetts 100.4
Duquesne 99.9
Saint Joseph’s 99.8
Richmond 99.6
Fordham 97.0
La Salle 95.9
George Washington 94.9
Atlantic Coast
Duke 122.9
Virginia 121.6
North Carolina 117.3
Virginia Tech 116.0
North Carolina St. 113.0
Florida St. 112.4
Louisville 112.2
Syracuse 111.2
Clemson 109.8
Miami FL 107.6
Pittsburgh 106.6
Georgia Tech 106.6
Notre Dame 106.6
Boston College 103.7
Wake Forest 101.4
Atlantic Sun
Lipscomb 108.9
Liberty 107.1
NJIT 99.3
North Florida 98.4
Florida Gulf Coast 94.0
Jacksonville 94.0
North Alabama 90.2
Stetson 86.7
Kennesaw St. 85.4
Big 12
Kansas 115.9
Texas Tech 115.4
Iowa St. 114.5
TCU 113.0
Oklahoma 111.9
Texas 110.9
Kansas St. 109.7
Baylor 108.9
West Virginia 106.8
Oklahoma St. 105.5
Big East
Villanova 112.8
Marquette 111.6
Butler 110.4
St. John’s 110.0
Creighton 109.4
Seton Hall 108.7
Providence 106.6
Xavier 106.0
Georgetown 105.6
DePaul 103.7
Big Sky
Montana 103.9
Weber St. 100.0
Northern Colorado 99.2
Idaho St. 95.1
Montana St. 94.2
Sacramento St. 94.1
Eastern Washington 93.8
Southern Utah 93.6
Portland St. 93.5
Northern Arizona 91.9
Idaho 90.3
Big South
Radford 102.3
Winthrop 100.4
Gardner Webb 100.1
Presbyterian 97.1
Campbell 97.0
High Point 97.0
Hampton 96.2
Charleston Southern 95.7
Longwood 94.2
USC Upstate 90.8
UNC Asheville 83.7
Big Ten
Michigan St. 120.2
Michigan 116.8
Nebraska 114.8
Purdue 114.5
Wisconsin 113.6
Maryland 112.4
Ohio St. 112.0
Iowa 111.7
Indiana 111.6
Northwestern 107.9
Penn St. 106.9
Minnesota 106.7
Illinois 105.5
Rutgers 103.4
Big West
UC Irvine 103.5
UC Santa Barbara 102.5
Cal St. Fullerton 98.6
Long Beach St. 98.4
Hawaii 98.2
UC Davis 95.3
UC Riverside 93.2
Cal St. Northridge 91.8
Cal Poly 91.0
Colonial Athletic
Hofstra 106.0
Northeastern 104.7
Charleston 103.4
William & Mary 97.4
Delaware 96.7
UNC Wilmington 96.1
James Madison 95.1
Drexel 94.9
Towson 93.8
Elon 89.8
Conference USA
Western Kentucky 104.5
Old Dominion 104.3
North Texas 103.5
Louisiana Tech 102.8
Marshall 102.2
Southern Miss 100.3
UAB 99.5
UTSA 97.4
Florida Int’l. 97.3
Florida Atlantic 96.7
UTEP 94.5
Middle Tennessee 93.4
Rice 92.9
Charlotte 92.8
Horizon
Northern Kentucky 104.6
Wright St. 100.8
IUPUI 98.5
Green Bay 97.8
Detroit 96.8
Illinois Chicago 96.7
Oakland 96.5
Milwaukee 93.6
Cleveland St. 93.1
Youngstown St. 92.8
Ivy
Yale 105.1
Penn 103.2
Harvard 102.9
Brown 102.5
Princeton 100.1
Dartmouth 98.5
Columbia 96.4
Cornell 95.3
Metro Atlantic
Rider 101.7
Iona 97.7
Canisius 95.5
Fairfield 95.3
Quinnipiac 95.3
Marist 95.0
Siena 94.4
Monmouth 94.0
Saint Peter’s 93.0
Niagara 92.7
Manhattan 89.7
Mid-American
Buffalo 113.4
Toledo 106.7
Ball St. 105.6
Akron 103.2
Northern Illinois 102.1
Bowling Green 101.6
Central Michigan 100.9
Kent St. 100.0
Eastern Michigan 99.6
Ohio 99.0
Miami OH 98.9
Western Michigan 97.5
Mideastern Athletic
Norfolk St. 94.2
North Carolina Central 93.8
North Carolina A&T 93.0
Bethune Cookman 92.0
Howard 91.5
Morgan St. 89.9
Florida A&M 89.2
South Carolina St. 89.2
Coppin St. 84.4
Savannah St. 83.8
Maryland Eastern Shore 81.9
Delaware St. 80.9
Missouri Valley
Loyola (Chi.) 105.4
Drake 102.8
Southern Illinois 101.8
Valparaiso 100.3
Evansville 99.5
Illinois St. 99.1
Indiana St. 98.6
Missouri St. 98.5
Northern Iowa 97.7
Bradley 96.7
Mountain West
Nevada 114.5
Utah St. 109.1
Fresno St. 107.9
Boise St. 104.2
San Diego St. 103.1
UNLV 100.8
New Mexico 99.3
Colorado St. 97.5
Air Force 95.2
Wyoming 92.2
San Jose St. 88.3
Northeast
Wagner 96.5
Fairleigh Dickinson 95.8
St. Francis PA 95.3
Sacred Heart 95.3
Long Island 95.1
Robert Morris 94.7
St. Francis (Bkln) 94.1
Central Connecticut 93.7
Mount St. Mary’s 89.0
Bryant 88.9
Ohio Valley
Murray St. 109.0
Belmont 105.1
Austin Peay 103.4
Jacksonville St. 103.4
Eastern Kentucky 96.3
Morehead St. 95.1
Tennessee St. 92.6
Eastern Illinois 92.5
Southeast Missouri St. 92.4
UT Martin 91.1
Tennessee Tech 88.9
SIU Edwardsville 88.8
Pac-12
Oregon 109.7
Washington 109.0
Arizona 108.7
Arizona St. 108.0
Oregon St. 106.8
UCLA 106.5
Colorado 105.7
USC 104.9
Stanford 102.3
Utah 102.2
Washington St. 98.2
California 94.8
Patriot
Bucknell 101.5
Lehigh 100.8
Colgate 99.6
Holy Cross 99.4
American 98.5
Boston University 97.1
Army 95.5
Navy 92.6
Loyola (MD) 92.5
Lafayette 92.3
Southeastern
Tennessee 119.1
Auburn 115.7
Kentucky 114.7
Florida 111.9
Mississippi St. 111.9
LSU 111.1
Mississippi 110.2
Alabama 108.0
Arkansas 107.4
South Carolina 105.5
Vanderbilt 105.3
Texas A&M 104.7
Georgia 104.6
Missouri 104.6
Southern
Wofford 110.4
East Tennessee St. 106.3
Furman 104.9
UNC Greensboro 104.3
Samford 99.9
Mercer 99.0
The Citadel 96.5
Chattanooga 94.2
Western Carolina 92.6
VMI 90.6
Southland
Abilene Christian 99.4
Sam Houston St. 96.8
Lamar 95.8
Stephen F. Austin 95.4
Houston Baptist 94.3
Central Arkansas 94.0
New Orleans 93.9
Nicholls St. 93.0
Texas A&M-CC 92.9
McNeese St. 92.2
Southeastern Louisiana 91.4
Northwestern St. 86.8
Incarnate Word 86.0
Southwestern Athletic
Texas Southern 98.2
Prairie View A&M 93.6
Grambling St. 92.8
Alabama St. 90.7
Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.0
Jackson St. 89.2
Southern 88.0
Alabama A&M 85.0
Alcorn St. 84.4
Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
Summit
South Dakota St. 106.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 100.0
Omaha 98.6
South Dakota 97.7
North Dakota St. 97.1
North Dakota 94.8
Oral Roberts 92.8
Western Illinois 92.6
Denver 92.1
Sun Belt
Georgia St. 104.6
Texas St. 104.1
Georgia Southern 103.5
Louisiana Monroe 101.5
Louisiana 100.8
Coastal Carolina 99.1
Troy 97.8
Appalachian St. 97.2
Little Rock 96.8
South Alabama 96.1
UT Arlington 95.8
Arkansas St. 94.3
West Coast
Gonzaga 120.6
Saint Mary’s 110.6
San Francisco 108.7
BYU 105.5
San Diego 104.8
Loyola Marymount 101.7
Pacific 99.2
Pepperdine 98.7
Santa Clara 97.0
Portland 90.9
Western Athletic
New Mexico St. 106.9
Grand Canyon 104.4
Utah Valley 102.9
Seattle 99.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 98.5
California Baptist 95.9
Missouri Kansas City 95.6
UT Rio Grande Valley 95.0
Chicago St. 82.1

 

PiRate Ratings Alphabetical

Rk Team PiRate
172 Abilene Christian 99.4
251 Air Force 95.2
126 Akron 103.2
56 Alabama 108.0
345 Alabama A&M 85.0
321 Alabama St. 90.7
300 Albany 92.7
346 Alcorn St. 84.4
190 American 98.5
209 Appalachian St. 97.2
54 Arizona 108.7
55 Arizona St. 108.0
61 Arkansas 107.4
327 Arkansas Pine Bluff 90.0
266 Arkansas St. 94.3
242 Army 95.5
10 Auburn 115.7
122 Austin Peay 103.4
84 Ball St. 105.6
51 Baylor 108.9
93 Belmont 105.1
312 Bethune Cookman 92.0
325 Binghamton 90.1
110 Boise St. 104.2
114 Boston College 103.7
212 Boston University 97.1
144 Bowling Green 101.6
223 Bradley 96.7
133 Brown 102.5
335 Bryant 88.9
145 Bucknell 101.5
18 Buffalo 113.4
38 Butler 110.4
90 BYU 105.5
318 Cal Poly 91.0
188 Cal St. Bakersfield 98.5
187 Cal St. Fullerton 98.6
314 Cal St. Northridge 91.8
260 California 94.8
234 California Baptist 95.9
214 Campbell 97.0
243 Canisius 95.5
276 Central Arkansas 94.0
281 Central Connecticut 93.7
46 Central Florida 109.3
149 Central Michigan 100.9
123 Charleston 103.4
239 Charleston Southern 95.7
296 Charlotte 92.8
267 Chattanooga 94.2
351 Chicago St. 82.1
33 Cincinnati 111.5
42 Clemson 109.8
289 Cleveland St. 93.1
180 Coastal Carolina 99.1
167 Colgate 99.6
81 Colorado 105.7
205 Colorado St. 97.5
227 Columbia 96.4
82 Connecticut 105.7
347 Coppin St. 84.4
245 Cornell 95.3
45 Creighton 109.4
189 Dartmouth 98.5
83 Davidson 105.6
64 Dayton 107.0
221 Delaware 96.7
353 Delaware St. 80.9
311 Denver 92.1
115 DePaul 103.7
219 Detroit 96.8
130 Drake 102.8
259 Drexel 94.9
1 Duke 122.9
164 Duquesne 99.9
235 East Carolina 95.9
77 East Tennessee St. 106.3
305 Eastern Illinois 92.5
228 Eastern Kentucky 96.3
169 Eastern Michigan 99.6
280 Eastern Washington 93.8
329 Elon 89.8
170 Evansville 99.5
248 Fairfield 95.3
238 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.8
26 Florida 111.9
331 Florida A&M 89.2
222 Florida Atlantic 96.7
273 Florida Gulf Coast 94.0
208 Florida Int’l. 97.3
23 Florida St. 112.4
216 Fordham 97.0
58 Fresno St. 107.9
95 Furman 104.9
160 Gardner Webb 100.1
120 George Mason 103.4
258 George Washington 94.9
85 Georgetown 105.6
102 Georgia 104.6
118 Georgia Southern 103.5
105 Georgia St. 104.6
72 Georgia Tech 106.6
3 Gonzaga 120.6
295 Grambling St. 92.8
107 Grand Canyon 104.4
198 Green Bay 97.8
229 Hampton 96.2
203 Hartford 97.6
128 Harvard 102.9
197 Hawaii 98.2
215 High Point 97.0
80 Hofstra 106.0
173 Holy Cross 99.4
30 Houston 111.7
265 Houston Baptist 94.3
315 Howard 91.5
323 Idaho 90.3
253 Idaho St. 95.1
88 Illinois 105.5
220 Illinois Chicago 96.7
179 Illinois St. 99.1
343 Incarnate Word 86.0
31 Indiana 111.6
185 Indiana St. 98.6
201 Iona 97.7
29 Iowa 111.7
15 Iowa St. 114.5
192 IUPUI 98.5
333 Jackson St. 89.2
274 Jacksonville 94.0
124 Jacksonville St. 103.4
254 James Madison 95.1
9 Kansas 115.9
44 Kansas St. 109.7
344 Kennesaw St. 85.4
161 Kent St. 100.0
13 Kentucky 114.7
233 La Salle 95.9
308 Lafayette 92.3
237 Lamar 95.8
152 Lehigh 100.8
63 Liberty 107.1
50 Lipscomb 108.9
217 Little Rock 96.8
193 Long Beach St. 98.4
255 Long Island 95.1
268 Longwood 94.2
151 Louisiana 100.8
146 Louisiana Monroe 101.5
131 Louisiana Tech 102.8
24 Louisville 112.2
91 Loyola (Chi.) 105.4
306 Loyola (MD) 92.5
143 Loyola Marymount 101.7
35 LSU 111.1
326 Maine 90.1
330 Manhattan 89.7
257 Marist 95.0
32 Marquette 111.6
137 Marshall 102.2
22 Maryland 112.4
230 Maryland Baltimore Co. 96.1
352 Maryland Eastern Shore 81.9
155 Massachusetts 100.4
310 McNeese St. 92.2
98 Memphis 104.7
182 Mercer 99.0
60 Miami FL 107.6
183 Miami OH 98.9
7 Michigan 116.8
4 Michigan St. 120.2
287 Middle Tennessee 93.4
282 Milwaukee 93.6
69 Minnesota 106.7
40 Mississippi 110.2
28 Mississippi St. 111.9
348 Mississippi Valley St. 83.9
104 Missouri 104.6
241 Missouri Kansas City 95.6
191 Missouri St. 98.5
275 Monmouth 94.0
112 Montana 103.9
270 Montana St. 94.2
252 Morehead St. 95.1
328 Morgan St. 89.9
334 Mount St. Mary’s 89.0
49 Murray St. 109.0
301 Navy 92.6
12 Nebraska 114.8
16 Nevada 114.5
339 New Hampshire 88.1
176 New Mexico 99.3
65 New Mexico St. 106.9
277 New Orleans 93.9
299 Niagara 92.7
290 Nicholls St. 93.0
174 NJIT 99.3
269 Norfolk St. 94.2
324 North Alabama 90.2
6 North Carolina 117.3
292 North Carolina A&T 93.0
278 North Carolina Central 93.8
19 North Carolina St. 113.0
261 North Dakota 94.8
211 North Dakota St. 97.1
194 North Florida 98.4
119 North Texas 103.5
100 Northeastern 104.7
313 Northern Arizona 91.9
177 Northern Colorado 99.2
139 Northern Illinois 102.1
200 Northern Iowa 97.7
103 Northern Kentucky 104.6
57 Northwestern 107.9
341 Northwestern St. 86.8
73 Notre Dame 106.6
225 Oakland 96.5
181 Ohio 99.0
25 Ohio St. 112.0
27 Oklahoma 111.9
87 Oklahoma St. 105.5
108 Old Dominion 104.3
186 Omaha 98.6
297 Oral Roberts 92.8
43 Oregon 109.7
68 Oregon St. 106.8
178 Pacific 99.2
125 Penn 103.2
66 Penn St. 106.9
184 Pepperdine 98.7
71 Pittsburgh 106.6
319 Portland 90.9
285 Portland St. 93.5
283 Prairie View A&M 93.6
210 Presbyterian 97.1
159 Princeton 100.1
74 Providence 106.6
14 Purdue 114.5
163 Purdue Fort Wayne 100.0
249 Quinnipiac 95.3
136 Radford 102.3
113 Rhode Island 103.9
293 Rice 92.9
168 Richmond 99.6
142 Rider 101.7
262 Robert Morris 94.7
121 Rutgers 103.4
271 Sacramento St. 94.1
247 Sacred Heart 95.3
166 Saint Joseph’s 99.8
101 Saint Louis 104.6
37 Saint Mary’s 110.6
291 Saint Peter’s 93.0
218 Sam Houston St. 96.8
165 Samford 99.9
97 San Diego 104.8
127 San Diego St. 103.1
53 San Francisco 108.7
338 San Jose St. 88.3
213 Santa Clara 97.0
349 Savannah St. 83.8
175 Seattle 99.3
52 Seton Hall 108.7
264 Siena 94.4
337 SIU Edwardsville 88.8
86 SMU 105.6
231 South Alabama 96.1
89 South Carolina 105.5
332 South Carolina St. 89.2
202 South Dakota 97.7
78 South Dakota St. 106.1
141 South Florida 101.7
307 Southeast Missouri St. 92.4
316 Southeastern Louisiana 91.4
340 Southern 88.0
140 Southern Illinois 101.8
157 Southern Miss 100.3
284 Southern Utah 93.6
154 St. Bonaventure 100.6
272 St. Francis (Bkln) 94.1
246 St. Francis PA 95.3
41 St. John’s 110.0
135 Stanford 102.3
244 Stephen F. Austin 95.4
342 Stetson 86.7
148 Stony Brook 101.2
34 Syracuse 111.2
20 TCU 113.0
62 Temple 107.1
5 Tennessee 119.1
302 Tennessee St. 92.6
336 Tennessee Tech 88.9
36 Texas 110.9
99 Texas A&M 104.7
294 Texas A&M-CC 92.9
195 Texas Southern 98.2
111 Texas St. 104.1
11 Texas Tech 115.4
224 The Citadel 96.5
70 Toledo 106.7
279 Towson 93.8
199 Troy 97.8
286 Tulane 93.5
134 Tulsa 102.4
171 UAB 99.5
250 UC Davis 95.3
117 UC Irvine 103.5
288 UC Riverside 93.2
132 UC Santa Barbara 102.5
75 UCLA 106.5
240 UMass Lowell 95.7
350 UNC Asheville 83.7
109 UNC Greensboro 104.3
232 UNC Wilmington 96.1
150 UNLV 100.8
96 USC 104.9
320 USC Upstate 90.8
236 UT Arlington 95.8
317 UT Martin 91.1
256 UT Rio Grande Valley 95.0
138 Utah 102.2
47 Utah St. 109.1
129 Utah Valley 102.9
263 UTEP 94.5
206 UTSA 97.4
158 Valparaiso 100.3
92 Vanderbilt 105.3
76 Vermont 106.4
21 Villanova 112.8
2 Virginia 121.6
59 Virginia Commonwealth 107.6
8 Virginia Tech 116.0
322 VMI 90.6
226 Wagner 96.5
147 Wake Forest 101.4
48 Washington 109.0
196 Washington St. 98.2
162 Weber St. 100.0
67 West Virginia 106.8
303 Western Carolina 92.6
304 Western Illinois 92.6
106 Western Kentucky 104.5
204 Western Michigan 97.5
116 Wichita St. 103.6
207 William & Mary 97.4
156 Winthrop 100.4
17 Wisconsin 113.6
39 Wofford 110.4
153 Wright St. 100.8
309 Wyoming 92.2
79 Xavier 106.0
94 Yale 105.1
298 Youngstown St. 92.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January 8, 2019

PiRate Ratings–College Football Final 2018-19

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:19 am

Congratulations go to the Clemson Tigers for their outstanding performance last night in their four touchdown victory over Alabama.  With a quarterback that will be back for at least two more seasons, the Tigers must be considered the early favorite to repeat as champions next year and maybe the year after as well.  In the previous decade, the Indianapolis Colts arranged to have their worst ever season at the right time.  The phrase, “Let’s suck for Luck,” was in vogue in the Sycamore State, as the Colts won the rights to the first pick in the NFL Draft.  The new phrase for 2021 might be, “Be Clever and suck for Trevor,” because Trevor Lawrence looks like he could be another all-time NFL great.

Alabama fans know that their team will be back.  When your coach continually recruits the top class or one of the top five year after year, and he employs more coaches by calling them advisers, Alabama, Inc. will continue to return heavy profits.  Of course, Nick Saban will be offered the chance to return to the NFL, but personally we cannot see Saban leaving Alabama off a game like this.  He wants a 15-0 season with 15 double digit wins, and then we can retire and run his Mercedes-Benz Dealership hands-on by recruiting car buyers.

Many of you reading this today might not realize that this was not Alabama’s worst ever showing in a bowl game being played for the National Championship.  There was a worse outcome, and I watched it 47 years ago in the Orange Bowl.

#1 Nebraska, certainly one of the five best college teams ever, thoroughly destroyed #2 Alabama that year 38-6, and the score could have been much worse.  The Cornhuskers scored a touchdown early in the first quarter on a sustained drive, mixing up power runs, option runs, and play-action passes from their wing-I offense and took a quick 7-0 lead.  Alabama’s potent wishbone offense was greatly slowed by Nebraska’s 5-2 defense that closely resembled the All Big 8 Team.

In the last minute of the first quarter, the game was basically decided.  Alabama punted and chose to punt the ball to All-American Johnny Rodgers.  The future Heisman Trophy winner had broken the hearts of Oklahoma with a long punt return that led the Cornhuskers to victory over the Sooners on Thanksgiving Day in the “Game of the Century.”  On this night, Rodgers fielded the punt on the second bounce at his own 23 yard line.  He quickly scampered to his right to avoid two Alabama defenders, and then he faked two more almost out of their shoes before picking up a wall of blockers down the right sideline.  A few seconds later, Nebraska had a two touchdown lead as the first quarter expired.  Two more second quarter touchdowns made it 28-0 at the half, and it was apparent that the number two and number three teams were Big Eight foes Oklahoma and Colorado.  Coach Bob Devaney played his reserves for most of the second half, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 pasting of the 11-0 Crimson Tide.  Coach Bear Bryant called this Nebraska team the greatest of all time, and he admitted that the Cornhuskers basically toyed with his team.

Here are the Final PiRate Ratings for the 2018-19 season

# Team
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Ohio St.
4 Notre Dame
5 Georgia
6 Oklahoma
7 LSU
8 Michigan
9 Florida
10 Texas A&M
11 Washington
12 Auburn
13 Iowa
14 Washington St.
15 Kentucky
16 Texas
17 Mississippi St.
18 Syracuse
19 Penn St.
20 Stanford
21 Fresno St.
22 Missouri
23 Utah St.
24 West Virginia
25 Utah
26 Central Florida
27 Army
28 Boise St.
29 Northwestern
30 N. Carolina St.
31 Miami
32 S. Carolina
33 Wisconsin
34 Oregon
35 Oklahoma St.
36 Cincinnati
37 Duke
38 Michigan St.
39 Iowa State
40 Virginia
41 Boston College
42 Georgia Tech
43 Pittsburgh
44 T C U
45 Arizona St.
46 Ohio U
47 Appalachian St.
48 Minnesota
49 U A B
50 Wake Forest
51 Purdue
52 California
53 Baylor
54 Texas Tech
55 U S C
56 Vanderbilt
57 Troy
58 BYU
59 Temple
60 Nebraska
61 Kansas St.
62 Florida St.
63 Marshall
64 Ole Miss
65 Indiana
66 Maryland
67 Memphis
68 Virginia Tech
69 Tennessee
70 Buffalo
71 Arizona
72 Georgia Southern
73 Houston
74 Toledo
75 Northern Illinois
76 Nevada
77 Florida Int’l.
78 Tulane
79 Wyoming
80 U C L A
81 N. Texas
82 Colorado
83 Middle Tennessee
84 Miami (O)
85 San Diego St.
86 Eastern Michigan
87 Louisiana Tech
88 Arkansas St.
89 Air Force
90 Florida Atlantic
91 South Florida
92 SMU
93 Western Michigan
94 N. Carolina
95 Kansas
96 Arkansas
97 Navy
98 Southern Miss.
99 Rutgers
100 Illinois
101 UL-Monroe
102 Akron
103 Tulsa
104 Hawaii
105 W. Kentucky
106 Louisiana
107 Colorado St.
108 U N L V
109 Oregon St.
110 Louisville
111 Charlotte
112 New Mexico
113 East Carolina
114 Massachusetts
115 Bowling Green
116 Old Dominion
117 Liberty
118 San Jose St.
119 Ball St.
120 Central Michigan
121 Kent St.
122 Coastal Carolina
123 Georgia St.
124 U T S A
125 South Alabama
126 Texas State
127 N. Mexico St.
128 Rice
129 Connecticut
130 UTEP

Coming Later Today–The PiRate Ratings for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.  

 

 

 

 

November 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 21-26, 2018

Oh woe to us!  After so many really nice winning weeks by our Land Sharps, they took a beating last week.  One went into the red in his account, while the other four all slipped dangerously close to joining in the red ink ledgers.

Our own PiRate Ratings have had almost a -1 correlation with the Land Sharps this year.  While the Sharps were losing, our own picks had their second best results of the season, finishing 9-3 against the spread including winning that incredible 15-game parlay.  We promise 5 Dimes not to give them any further heart attacks this year, so we will not issue any more of them.

This is rivalry week, and it is historically one of the hardest weeks for investors to show a profit by late Monday night.  However, we tend to focus on other implications besides rivalry bragging rights.  There are other, even more important factors to consider this week.  If a team is 5-6, or if a team’s coach has been told to get a cardboard box and clean out his office after Saturday, the players on that team are going to play their A-games.  A 2-9 team may play like they are 7-4, and a 4-7 team may play like they are 9-2.  On the other hand, there might be teams that saw their chance for glory go by the wayside in the last couple of weeks.  Teams that were 4-5 and are now 4-7 have little to play for.  They know this is their last game of the year, and they can look forward to spending Christmas at home.  Their mind is on Grandma’s pie and Mom’s prized winning ham.  Then, there are the teams that have suffered through dissension in the last half of the schedule.  Many of their players have basically quit on their coach, because they hope he isn’t back the next season.  There are a lot of factors to consider when playing Week 13 games.

Our Land Sharps threw caution to the wind this week.  We expected one or more to play the minimum three games trying to stall out the season and guarantee a winning record.  But, like Ted Williams in 1941, they are not going to sit out the final.  They are going to play both games of the double header.  Let’s hope they all can raise their batting average up to .407 by the end of the weekend.

1.) Cal Gal Tiffany  Season: 36-26-0  Return on Investment: 11.9%

Memphis -7 vs. Houston

Washington St.  -2 1/2 vs. Washington

Pittsburgh +4 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

South Carolina +26 1/2 vs. Clemson

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

2.) Stewed Meat  Season 35-27-1  Return on Investment: 8.4%

Ole Miss +12 vs. Mississippi St.

Coastal Carolina Pk. vs. South Alabama

Florida Int’l. +3 vs. Marshall

Troy +11 vs. Appalachian St.

SMU -2 1/2 vs. Tulsa

Colorado +12 1/2 vs. California

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

3.) Dean615  Season: 27-22-2  Return on Investment: 5.5%

Notre Dame -10 1/2 vs. USC

Houston +7 1/2 vs. Memphis

Michigan – 4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

Middle Tennessee +3 vs. UAB

Maryland +13 1/2 vs. Penn St.

Minnesota + 10 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

Tennessee +3 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle  Season: 28-23-1  Return on Investment: 5.2%

Virginia -4 vs. Virginia Tech

Indiana +4 vs. Purdue

Wake Forest +12 vs. Duke

Wyoming -6 1/2 vs. New Mexico

Kansas St. +13 1/2 vs. Iowa St.

Ohio St. +4 1/2 vs. Michigan

Washington St. -2 1/2 vs. Washington

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 30-28-1  Return on Investment: -1.4%

Buffalo – 14 1/2 vs. Bowling Green

Florida -6 vs. Florida St.

Michigan -4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

North Carolina St. -7 vs. North Carolina

Central Florida -14 vs. South Florida

Stanford -6 1/2 vs. UCLA

UAB -2 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Notre Dame – 10 1/2 vs. USC

Nevada -13 vs. UNLV

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE
10-Point Teasers 3-Game Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Air Force Colorado St. 24.5 Colorado St.
Texas Kansas 5 Texas
Navy Tulane 3 Tulane
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13 Florida Int’l.
Rice Old Dominion 2.5 Old Dominion
Central Florida South Florida 4 Central Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
New Mexico Wyoming 3 Wyoming
Arizona St. Arizona 12 Arizona
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 14.5 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulsa SMU 7.5 SMU
California Colorado 2.5 California
Notre Dame USC 0.5 Notre Dame
13-point Teasers 4 Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Middle Tennessee UAB 10.5 UAB
Duke Wake Forest 25 Wake Forest
West Virginia Oklahoma 10.5 Oklahoma
Washington Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Missouri Arkansas 10 Missouri
Michigan Ohio St. 17.5 Ohio St.
LSU Texas A&M 10 Texas A&M
Utah St. Boise St. 10.5 Boise St.
Money Line Parlay @ +175
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Marshall
Texas Kansas
Money Line Parlay @ +153
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Georgia Southern Georgia St.
Central Florida South Florida
Money Line Parlay @ +222
Must Win Must Lose
Oklahoma West Virginia
Wyoming New Mexico
Tulane Navy
Money Line Parlay @ +295
Must Win Must Lose
Washington St. Washington
UL-Monroe Louisiana
Florida Florida St.
NFL
10-Point Teaser 3-Game Parlay @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Chicago Detroit 13.5 Detroit
Washington Dallas 3 Dallas
New Orleans Atlanta 3 New Orleans
13-Point Teasers 4-Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 19 N.Y. Giants
N.Y. Jets New England 2.5 New England
Arizona L.A. Chargers 0.5 L.A. Chargers
Miami Indianapolis 5.5 Indianapolis
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Dallas Washington 27.5 Over
San Francisco Tampa Bay 67.5 Under
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 33 Over

Remember This Important Fact: All of the selections you see here are posted for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Pirates or guest Land Sharps actually play their selections for real.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, Stewed never posts the actual picks played in Nevada.  These are Stewed’s runner up picks that are not played.  We strongly encourage you not to wager real money on any selections you see here.

November 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 14-19, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:05 am

Call it a rebound week.  After a few weeks of mediocrity, our five Land Sharps went a combined 15-6 last week, and four of the five experts enjoyed highly profitable weeks.

Buckeye Michelle and Stewed Meat were both undefeated in their picks at 3-0 apiece.  Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2, and Dean615 went 2-1.  Friday Dog 13, stuck with a lot of favorites and like so many in “No Fave November,” he finished 2-3.  The week left three of our five Sharps with double digit percentage returns on investment.  The best news is that with two weeks remaining in the regular season, all five of our experts have winning records.  Friends, that is an incredible feat.  To go an entire college football season with a winning record is more rare a feat than beating the S&P 500 returns for a decade.  Few ever do it, so when five out of five here have winning records, it is incredible.

Now, let’s hope this isn’t the kiss of death.  Here are our Land Sharp picks for this week.  All the Land Sharps were on the same page this week; each of the five selected five games each.

1.) Dean 615:  Season 26-18-2 59.1%  Return on Investment 13.5%

Baylor -2 vs. TCU

Nebraska +2.5 vs. Michigan St.

West Virginia -4.5 vs. Oklahoma St.

Purdue -4.5 vs. Wisconsin

Ole Miss +3 vs. Vanderbilt

 

2 tie) Cal Gal Tiffany: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

Tennessee +7 vs. Missouri

UCLA +3.5 vs. USC

Virginia +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +5.5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

California +2.5 vs. Stanford

 

2 tie) Stewed Meat: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

North Texas -3.5 vs. Florida Atlantic

Colgate +11 vs. Army

UL-Monroe +8 vs. Arkansas St.

Wyoming -2 vs. Air Force

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle:  Season 26-20-1  56.5%  Return on Investment  8.5%

Buffalo +2.5 vs. Ohio

Miami (O) +7.5 vs. Northern Illinois

SMU +9 vs. Memphis

Indiana +28.5 vs. Michigan

Iowa St. +3 vs. Texas

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 29-24-1  54.7%  Return on Investment  4.8%

Washington St. -9.5 vs. Arizona

Cincinnati +7.5 vs. Central Florida

Nevada -14.5 vs. San Jose St.

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

Arkansas +21.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

The PiRate Ratings’ Goofy Parlays

We sure hope you heed our weekly warning to never wager real money on our just for fun selections.  We are not professionals at this, and even though one of the Land Sharps is a professional, Stewed never publishes the actual selections played for real, because Stewed is selfish about keeping the line where Stewed wants it to be.  She knows that if all of you reading this played the same selections, the line might move by a half-point.  This was said tongue-in-cheek, but in actuality, we know that a certain few of you reading this in the Caribbean, and in places like Reno, Las Vegas, and Tahoe, that you do look at our actual computer ratings before you make your weekly investment.

Just remember that we have never placed $1 on any of these goofy picks we publish.  It’s just for fun.  We are math nerds and have no relationship with any of the MIT and Cal Tech math geniuses that create advanced algorithmic equations to beat the spread.  Of course, all of those geniuses are looking up at the PiRate Ratings in both college and pro against the spread this season, as we are currently in first place at the Prediction Tracker against the College and the NFL Spread.  A wise man once said that a broken clock is accurate twice a day, and this season is one of those times for us.

Now, here are our goofy plays this week.  Have a good laugh but laugh all the way to the bank when you DON’T wager on these games.

COLLEGE
10-point Teaser 3-team Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston Tulane Pk Houston
Memphis SMU 19 SMU
Boise St. New Mexico 9.5 Boise St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 6 Kentucky
TCU Baylor 8 Baylor
Wake Forest Pittsburgh 3 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Ohio St. Maryland 4 Ohio St.
Michigan St. Nebraska 8 Nebraska
Minnesota Northwestern 7.5 Northwestern
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Temple USF 4 Temple
Utah Colorado 17 Colorado
Notre Dame Syracuse 20.5 Syracuse
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arkansas St. UL-Monroe 18 UL-Monroe
Missouri Tennessee 16 Tennessee
USC UCLA 13.5 UCLA
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Texas Tech Kansas St. 16 Kansas St.
Florida St. Boston College 8.5 Boston College
Georgia Tech Virginia 16.5 Virginia
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Michigan Indiana 38.5 Indiana
Air Force Wyoming 7.5 Wyoming
Nevada San Jose St. 4.5 Nevada
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 13 Ole Miss
Stanford California 12.5 California
Western Kentucky UTEP 17 UTEP

 

Special Parlay using 5 Dimes
20-point Teaser 15 games @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Memphis SMU 29 SMU
Alabama The Citadel 32 Alabama
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 36 Middle Tenn.
TCU Baylor 18 Baylor
Michigan St. Nebraska 22.5 Nebraska
Northwestern Minnesota 22 Minnesota
Florida Idaho 20 Florida
Marshall UTSA 47 UTSA
Florida St. Boston College 18.5 Boston College
Georgia Tech Virginia 27 Virginia
Miami (Fla.) Virginia Tech 25.5 Virginia Tech
Air Force Wyoming 17.5 Wyoming
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 22.5 Ole Miss
Western Kentucky UTEP 27 UTEP
Arizona Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.

 

NFL
10-Point Teasers 3 Team Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay Seattle 7.5 Seattle
Tennessee Indianapolis 8 Indianapolis
Atlanta Dallas 13.5 Dallas
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tampa Bay N.Y. Giants 9 N.Y. Giants
Houston Washington 13 Washington
Jacksonville Pittsburgh 4 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Denver L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Philadelphia New Orleans 1 New Orleans
Minnesota Chicago 7.5 Chicago
Team Team Total Pick
Seattle Green Bay 59 Under
Atlanta Dallas 38 Over
N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay 42 Over

 

 

 

November 7, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 7-12, 2018

How many times have you watched a college basketball game where a team gets a big lead  early and appears to be in control?  Then, the coach orders the players to become more patient on offense and look for high percentage shots rather than run the offense that got them the lead.  Subconsciously, the players become passive and slow down a bit, as they try to avoid turnovers.

As sure as the sun rises, this team loses its lead, sometimes all the way.  The other team exploits the passive play and goes on a run.  Then, the coach of the team that lost the lead, calls time out and yells at his team for doing basically what he told them to do.

Ladies and gentlemen–some of our Land Sharps may have been afflicted with this malady in recent weeks.  All five of our guest prognosticators got out to big leads in the land of picking winners against the spread.  Then, in recent weeks, they slowed down the pace and played it safe, only to see their great returns reduced by several percentage points.  The infamous books have reclaimed some of the investment as we round the turn and head down the backstretch of the 2018 season.

Today, three of our Land Sharps are going with just three games.  The game has tightened up, and they are running Four Corners, maybe a little too early in the game.  One Land Sharp is going with five selections, while the most liberal of the group is going with seven.

As for the PiRates, hey, we stink this year in our selections.  We are so far under water, we’d get the bends if we tried to re-surface quickly enough not to drown this season.  Our picks have not worked for us this year.  We have nothing to lose by going with more than a dozen selections, including a recommendation from one of our followers.

However, we have a saving grace here.  We never wager actual currency on any of the games we select, and if you have an ounce of brains, you will follow our lead.  Unless, of course, you are Stewed Meat, because Stewed is a professional in Vegas, although in recent days, we aren’t so sure about Stewed, after Stewed apparently went on the airwaves three sheets to the wind.  But, then what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

Unfortunately for us, what is invested in Vegas stayed in Vegas last week, if only in a pretend manner.

Still, all five of our Land Sharps are in the black for the season.  We have a new leader overall, as Dean615 has moved from last place to first place in one month.

Here are our wonderful Land Sharp selections for this week.

1. Dean615–Season: 24-17-2  Return on Investment: 12.3%

Vanderbilt +17 vs. Missouri

Kentucky -5.5 vs. Tennessee

Northwestern +11 vs. Iowa

 

2. Cal Gal Tiffany–Season: 29-22-0  Return on Investment: 9.4%

Boise St. +3 vs. Fresno St.

Auburn +14.5 vs. Georgia

Texas -1 vs. Texas Tech

Oregon St. +24 vs. Stanford

Georgia Tech -3 vs. Georgia

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

 

3. Stewed Meat–Season: 31-24-0  Return on Investment: 8.4%

South Carolina +7 vs. Florida

Kansas +12 vs. Kansas St.

North Carolina +10.5 vs. Duke

 

4. Friday Dog 13–Season: 27-21-1  Return on Investment: 8.0%

Ohio U -4 vs. Miami (O)

Ohio U & Miami (O)  OVER 61.5

Middle Tennessee -13 vs. UTEP

North Carolina St. -17 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame -17.5 vs. Florida St.

 

5. Buckeye Michelle–Season: 23-20-1  Return on Investment: 1.8%

Indiana -1.5 vs. Maryland

Washington St. -6 vs. Colorado

Boston College +20.5 vs. Clemson

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections for This Week

COLLEGE

10-point Teasers  (3 game parlays at 11-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Syracuse Louisville 10.5 Syracuse
Texas A&M Ole Miss 1.5 Texas A&M
Kansas St. Kansas 22 Kansas

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
West Virginia TCU 1.5 WVU
Eastern Michigan Akron 3 EMU
Duke North Carolina Pk Duke

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arizona St. UCLA 2.5 Arizona St.
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 9.5 Oklahoma
Purdue Minnesota 2.5 Purdue

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulane East Carolina 3.5 Tulane
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 10 Florida Atlantic
Georgia Auburn 24.5 Auburn

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cinciannati East Carolina 2.5 Cincinnati
Texas Tech Texas 8.5 Texas
UAB Southern Miss. 2.5 UAB

 

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 4 NC St.
Florida South Carolina 20 S. Car.
BYU Massachusetts 27 UMass
Troy Georgia Southern 14.5 Ga. Southern

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tennessee Kentucky 7 Kentucky
Colorado Washington St. 7 Washington St.
Louisiana Georgia St. 1 Louisiana
South Alabama UL-Monroe 7.5 UL-Monroe

 

Money Line Parlay (@ +152)

Must Win Must Lose
Ohio U Miami (O)
Northern Illinois Toledo

 

Recommended Parlay from our Subscriber JuJu 85 from Santa Clarita, CA

This parlay features two underdogs and plays at +1355, which is good enough for us to approve.

Must Win Must Lose
South Carolina Florida
Kansas Kansas St.

 

N F L

13-point Teasers (4 game parlays at 13-10)

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Detroit Chicago 6.5 Chicago
Kansas City Arizona 3.5 Kansas City
Tennessee New England 6.5 New England
Jacksonville Indianapolis 10 Indianapolis

 

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Oakland L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Miami Green Bay 3 Green Bay
Seattle L.A. Rams 3 L.A. Rams
Dallas Philadelphia 6.5 Philadelphia

 

Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Cincinnati New Orleans 41 Over
Cleveland Atlanta 37.5 Over
Buffalo N.Y. Jets 24 Over

Remember this: We issue these picks strictly for entertainment purposes only and do not wager real money on our selections.  We advise you to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 5, 2018

Final Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

Pardon our brevity today, but we do have other tasks at hands on the PiRate ship.  This is our final election eve analytical look at the 2018 Mid-term Election races.

U.S. Senate

We were tempted to make one slight change today based on the final reliable polling coming from a couple of honest pollsters.  However, in these states, Early Voting has already seen large percentages of voters deciding.  We have to use the polls at the time of Early Voting, so we did not move the needle at all.

For three weeks, we have been split between 53-47 and 54-46 in favor of the Republicans in the Senate.  Our Over/Under spread would be 53 1/2.

U.S. House of Representatives

This could take up hours more than we have to explain, and if you are reading this 14 hours before the polls open on the East Coast, you only have time for a couple of paragraphs.

Based on our models of handicapping the polls based on their recent biases from the previous election, we believe that the Democrats are assured of picking up 13 seats as their floor and 34 seats as their ceiling.  They currently own 193 seats, so this bumps their minimum in the next Congress to 206 and a maximum of 227.  It takes 218 to get a majority.

We believe that there are about 26 seats remaining that are true tossup races.  Of the 26 tossups, the Democrats need to win 12 of the races to gain control.  If you factor in that the Democrats polled a little better three weeks ago when some states commenced with early voting, we tend to tilt the needle of toss-up races in their favor.  If we had to wager on an over/under number for the number of Democrats in the next Congress, we’d place that number at 219.5, since our data shows the Democrats taking control of the House by a margin of 219 to 216 or 220 to 215.

Gubernatorial Races

We must admit that we did not perform any additional data mining on the governor’s races.  We will stick with our over/under number of 26.5 in favor of the Republicans, as our data is split between 26-24 and 27-23 in favor of the GOP.

 

Our plea with our incredible brothers and sisters of the greatest nation in the world.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, please act like a good and decent human being and accept the results without resulting to violence.  Our nation received the most incredible gift from our Founding Fathers.

There is a fantastic quote attributable to Benjamin Franklin in 1787.  When Franklin was leaving Independence Hall following long hours of discussion at the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Franklin as he left the hall whether our new nation would be a Republic or a Monarchy.

Franklin’s genius reply was, “A Republic if you can keep it.”

My fellow friends and countrymen, we are doing our worst not to keep it.  I lived through the 1968 through 1972 election cycle.  I never believed the nation could become more divided then than ever again in my lifetime.  We are approaching this four year black eye.  Let’s stop it before it can surpass those four years.

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

November 1, 2018

Update To An Analytical Look at the 2018 Mid-term Elections

This update to the statistical analysis we gave two weeks ago will be shorter than the previous post given due to time constraints, but we believe it will be a little more accurate now that there are many additional points to plot on our regression boards.

SENATE

Safe Seats

California
Dianne Feinstein (D)

Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D)

Delaware
Tom Carper (D)

Hawaii
Mazie Hirano (D)

Maine
Angus King (I)
King caucuses with the Democrats.

Maryland
Ben Cardin (D)

Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D)

Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D)

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D)

Mississippi
Roger Wicker (R)

Nebraska
Deb Fischer (R)

New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D)

New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D)

Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

Utah
Mitt Romney (R)

Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I)
Sanders caucuses with the Democrats.

Virginia
Tim Kaine (D)

Washington
Maria Cantwell (D)

Wyoming
John Barrasso (R)

Moved from Safe to Leaning

Minnesota Special Election
Tina Smith (D) vs. Karin Housley (R) Smith +4

Smith has the advantage, but her lead has dwindled to the point where a large GOP voting turnout could flip this seat to the Republicans. Housley has proven to be a formidable campaigner and has cut a double-digit lead down to within the margin of error when our formula has been applied.

Toss-up States

Arizona

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Martha McSally (R)

Recent news of statements made by Sinema concerning her constituents has cost her almost any chance of winning this race. It is almost a safe seat for the Republicans

Florida
Bill Nelson (D)
Rick Scott (R)

This is probably the closest race in the Senate. Voter turnout on election day will decide the winner. The stats show Nelson with less than two-tenths of a percent lead. Might there be a challenge by whoever loses? In Florida, it’s a good chance.

Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D)
Mike Braun (R)
Lucy Brenton (L)

This race became a lot more interesting at the end of October, as the Indiana Democratic Party released a mass mailer telling people to vote for Libertarian candidate Brenton, as a ploy to get Braun supporters to vote for Brenton and thus give Donnelly the win. Braun was once a Democrat, and he may lose just enough support to Brenton for Donnelly to win with a plurality but not a majority of the vote.

Mississippi Special Election Primary
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Mike Espy (D)
Chris McDaniel (R)
Toby Bartee (D)

Hyde-Smith appears to be in excellent shape to finish in first in the open primary, but she should fall short of the needed 50%+1 vote to avoid a runoff election. McDaniel is closing in on Espy for second place, but it would be a major upset if the runoff election did not pit Hyde-Smith against Espy. Hyde-Smith polls double digits ahead of Espy in the runoff, which will be held on November 27.

Missouri
Josh Hawley (R)
Claire McCaskill (D)

James O’Keefe at Project Veritas is proving to be the 21st Century version of Mike Wallace from 60 Minutes in the 1970’s and 1980’s. His undercover sleuthing looks to have proven to be a mortal wound for McCaskill, and The Show Me State is looking like a Republican pick-up. O’Keefe showed them.

Montana
Jon Tester (D)
Matt Rosendale (R)

This race has gotten even tighter since our last report. We have moved it to leaning Democrat to toss-up. Tester led this race by close to double digits just after Labor Day, but it is now well within the margin of error, and this is usually a Red state. We believe that Rosendale may have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of defeating the incumbent Tester.  With the Independent candidate dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale, this could give the Republican the final two or three percent he needs to defeat Tester.

 

New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D)
Bob Hugin (R)

Menendez should have secured this victory weeks ago, but Hugin continues to remain within striking distance. How the suburban turnout goes on Election Day will determine if this race will be decided by less than 2% either way. We still believe Menendez will squeak by, but this race has moved from leaning Democrat to Toss-up barely favoring the Democrat.

Nevada
Dean Heller (R)
Jacky Rosen (D)

This is one race where we have tossed out the outlier polls on both sides. We believe these polls to be too partial and thus discount them to the point where they offer no accuracy. The remaining polls have showed a slow but steady climb in the numbers for Heller. Rosen needed to hit about 48% in the most recent reliable polls, and she has failed to do so. When the challenger cannot get to 48% in the final week of an election, the incumbent will win 90+% of the time. We believe Heller wins by as much as 6%.

North Dakota
Kevin Cramer (R)
Heidi Heitkamp (D)

Really, we should put this race into the safe Republican section, but it began as an up for grabs seat, and we will leave it here. Heitkamp had too much against her in this state. Cramer has become a star in the House of Representatives, and the House seat in North Dakota is a statewide race. In essence, Cramer has more notoriety statewide than the incumbent Heitkamp. Plus, this is a heavy Red state, so the numbers just work against Heitkamp here. Expect Cramer to approach a double-digit win.

Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (D)
Lou Barletta (R)

Casey has never seriously been threatened in this race, as Barletta’s campaign never took off in the Metropolitan areas. Barletta needed to sweep the Pittsburgh suburbs, and it looks like he is barely getting a majority in this area. Meanwhile, Philadelphia supports Casey by a large margin, and this will lead to Casey winning in a minor landslide.

Tennessee
Marsha Blackburn (R)
Phil Bredesen (D)

James O’Keefe strikes again! Former Nashville Mayor and Governor Bredesen was holding his own in this race in a state that went heavy for President Trump in 2016. When Project Veritas released video of the Bredesen campaign admitting that support for Justice Kavanaugh was a lie, it threw this race into safe territory for the GOP. Plus, Bredesen might have already lost a little of his female base by showing support for Kavanaugh. Blackburn has a chance to score a double-digit victory and become the first female ever to be elected to statewide office in Tennessee.

Texas
Ted Cruz (R)
Beto O’Rourke (D)

Cruz is polliing above 50% in all major polls, so this race can be put into the safe Republican seat category. O’Rourke played Russian Roulette with his stance on guns, and he was the unlucky participant.

Late note: Project Veritas struck again Thursday night when they released information showing O’Rourke campaign staffers admitting to illegally using campaign funds to supply the Honduran Caravan.  It should be the final nail in the candidate’s coffin.

West Virginia
Joe Manchin (D)
Patrick Morrisey (R)

Because of the limited number of polls that meet our criteria for limited bias, this race may be the hardest one for us to analyze. Manchin was once above 50% in many polls and is now below 50% in all the reliable polls. Incumbents need to stay above 48% at this point in the race in hopes to receive 2% more from the undecideds. Manchin’s average polling numbers at the end of October place him at 46-47%. Morrisey has about 43%, which means an abnormally high 10% of West Virginia’s likely voters are still undecided (or the polling data is flawed). Our statistical analysis shows that Manchin enters November with a 3% lead and with as much as 8% of likely voters still undecided. At 47.5 to 44.5, Manchin needs 2.5% of the remaining 8% to win. Incumbents tend to lose about 2/3 of the undecided vote in the final week of the election. Thus, we favor Manchin at 50.17% to 49.83% for Morrisey, in other words a very close race.

Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Leah Vukmir (R)

Baldwin is consistently polling between 52 and 55% in the polls with about 3-4% undecided votes. She should win by close to double-digits if not slightly over.

As of November 2, Our Prediction for the US Senate is:

Republicans 54
Democrats 46

This would be a pickup of three seats for the GOP. This would be the largest mid-term Senate gain for the President’s Party since 1962 when the Democrats gained four seats in the Mid-term with President John F. Kennedy in office. No Republican President has ever seen his party gain three seats in the Senate in a mid-term election, and George W. Bush, is the only other Republican president to see his party gain in the Senate mid-term election. In 2002, the GOP gained one seat.

 

The House of Representatives
This is the most interesting and the most difficult thing the PiRate Ratings have ever tried to analyze, be it sports, stock investments, or even when the first snow will fall in our base city. We have to admit that three of us stayed awake until past 3 AM pouring over notes and coming to different conclusions. One of us calculated a 27-seat gain for the Democrats, meaning they would own the majority at 220-215. One of us calculated that the Republicans would squeak by with a 219-216 majority and a loss of 16 seats. The third person totally screwed up his math and kept coming up with different numbers and had 436 votes until he realized at 3:15 AM that he had counted the 25th District of California twice. He came up with 220-215 majority for the GOP.
What does this mean? Be prepared to stay up all night next Tuesday into Wednesday morning, because there are a lot of toss-up races in the State of California, and polls don’t close there until maybe past your normal bedtime on the East Coast. We might not even know which party controls the House on Wednesday morning. What a big win for the news networks if this happens!

Current House Numbers
Republicans 235
Democrats 193
Vacancies 7

As of November 2, Our prediction for the House is.
Republicans 218
Democrats 217
The Democrats gain 24 total seats.

Governors
At the present time, there are 33 Republican Governors, 16 Democratic Governors, and One Independent Governor (Bill Walker of Alaska) that was once a Republican but who cut a deal with the former Democratic candidate to end his campaign and team up with him as his lieutenant governor. Walker supports the Democratic nominee Marc Begich.
There are 14 states that do not hold a Gubernatorial election this year, and it so happens that these 14 states consist of seven Republican and seven Democratic Governors. So, we begin with a 7-7 tie.

Safe for the Republicans: 12 (Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming)

Safe for the Democrats: 7 (California, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island)

Subtotal: Republicans 19 Democrats 14

Leaning Republican: 4 (Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire)

Leaning Democratic: 4 (Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico)

Subtotal: Republicans 23 Democrats 18

Toss-up States: 9

Connecticut
Ned Lamont (D)
Bob Stefanowski (R)

Lamont has a slight lead and looks to have about a 75% chance of winning

Florida
Andrew Gillum (D)
Ron DeSantis (R)

Gillum was close to the 50% threshold until it became news that he is under investigation by the FBI for a corruption issue. His rating stopped at 48 and has dropped a percent or two. DeSantis now has the advantage, and more registered Republicans have voted early than registered Democrats. This looks like it is trending to DeSantis.

Iowa
Fred Hubbell (D)
Kim Reynolds (R)
Hubbell has a small lead that is within the margin of error, but he must be considered the favorite to win. We give Hubbell a 55% chance of winning.

Kansas
Laura Kelly (D)
Kris Kobach (R)
Greg Orman (I)

Orman has been polling close to double digits, and he will take away enough votes to decide this election. Kobach is likely to win because Orman will take away enough of Kelly’s support.

Nevada
Steve Sisolak (D)
Adam Laxalt (R)
Ryan Bundy (I)

This is an interesting race with news that can be considered beneficial to both sides. Laxalt had the lead in early October. Even with the Independent Bundy siphoning off some of his support, he appeared to be close to moving this race into the leaning Republican column. Early voting in crucial counties trended toward the Republicans scoring victories in both the Senate and Governor’s races. However, Heller does not have an Independent running in the Senate race. How much of the early voting Republican votes has gone to Bundy?

Then, an eleventh hour negative editorial by members of Laxalt’s family was published in print media and reported on in electronic media, where the family members claim that Laxalt is not a Nevadan but actually an Eastern elitist. Sisolak will pick up some votes here, and this race will go down to the wire.

Ohio
Richard Cordray (D)
Mike DeWine (R)

How about a flat-footed tie in a race? This one looks like a 50-50 race with just a week to go until the election. Early voting started in Ohio more than three weeks ago, and the turnout has been rather heavy, about 55% higher than the 2014 Mid-term election. If we had to bet, we’d give Cordray the very slightest edge, because the incumbent DeWine has not reached 48%, which is a vital number to us when looking at incumbents with one week to go in the race.

Oregon
Kate Brown (D)
Knute Buehler (R)

Brown doesn’t have the 48% minimum as the incumbent, but in this case, her opponent continues to lose a tiny bit of ground. Oregon is usually a Blue State, so we will give the edge to Brown.

South Dakota
Billie Sutton (D)
Kristi Noem (R)

Noem had more name recognition as a member of the House, while Sutton is a state senator. Noem has the advantage here as this is a Red state. Our prediction here is that Noem wins by 4-6%.

Wisconsin
Tony Evers (D)
Scott Walker (R)

Here is a race where the trend line is the strongest factor. Even though the incumbent Walker is one percent below the 48% threshold, his opponent is losing ground by a statistically-relevant number. Evers, a lifelong educator and three-time state public school superintendant was pushing 50% before negative ads hit the airwaves in the Badger State. Walker has since reached 47%, while Evers has fallen under 46%, and the trend line this late in the race tilts this one in favor of Walker.

As of November 2, Our prediction for the Governors’ races are:

Republicans 26
Democrats 23
1 race totally too close to call.

October 31, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Iowa St. Kansas 4 Iowa St.
Air Force Army 3 Army
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3.5 Eastern Michigan
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wyoming San Jose St. 3.5 Wyoming
Illinois Minnesota 0.5 Minnesota
Cincinnati Navy 3 Cincinnati
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Boston College Virginia Tech 12 Virginia Tech
Michigan Penn St. 20.5 Penn St.
Missouri Florida 4 Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston SMU 3.5 Houston
Northwestern Notre Dame 1 Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l. 7 Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Northern Illinois Akron 19.5 Akron
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky 0.5 Middle Tennessee
Kentucky Georgia 4 Georgia
Rice UTEP 14 UTEP

 

Money Line Parlays
3 Teams @ +172
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Florida Atlantic
Georgia Kentucky
Notre Dame Northwestern
3 Teams @ +125
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Missouri
Minnesota Illinois
Middle Tennessee Western Kentucky
4 Teams @+180
Must Win Must Lose
Syracuse Wake Forest
Army Air Force
Eastern Michigan Central Michigan
Wyoming San Jose St.
2 Teams @+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win Must Lose
Texas A&M Auburn
Arizona St. Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers 3 @ 11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
San Francisco Oakland 13 Oakland
Chicago Buffalo Pk Chicago
Tampa Bay Carolina 3.5 Carolina
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Cleveland Kansas City 1.5 Kansas City
Washington Atlanta 12 Atlanta
Green Bay New England 4.5 New England

 

13-point Teasers 4 @ 13-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Minnesota Detroit 18 Detroit
Baltimore Pittsburgh 16 Pittsburgh
Seattle L.A. Chargers 15 L.A. Chargers
Houston Denver 9 Denver
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
San Francisco Oakland 32.5 Over
Minnesota Detroit 35.5 Over
Cleveland Kansas City 38.5 Over
Miami N.Y. Jets 32 Over
Team 1 Team 2 Total Pick
Baltimore Pittsburgh 57.5 Under
Washington Atlanta 33.5 Over
Seattle L.A. Chargers 35 Over
New England Green Bay 66.5 Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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