The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 18, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 22-24, 2022

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Virginia TechWest Virginia-2.5-1.5-3.1
Georgia St.Coastal Carolina6.44.16.5
SyracuseVirginia10.49.411.3
Air ForceNevada19.117.120.3
UTEPBoise St.-18.4-17.8-19.3
Iowa St.Baylor-2.6-1.3-1.5
KentuckyNorthern Illinois20.120.621.6
South CarolinaCharlotte30.028.129.9
TempleMassachusetts9.211.29.4
GeorgiaKent St.50.246.451.5
North CarolinaNotre Dame-1.30.8-1.4
Miami (Fla.)Middle Tennessee34.331.932.6
MichiganMaryland18.016.618.3
North Carolina St.Connecticut42.640.745.5
Penn St.Central Michigan29.727.626.7
Central FloridaGeorgia Tech17.118.119.9
LouisvilleSouth Florida16.916.916.6
Michigan St.Minnesota2.72.20.5
Wake ForestClemson-11.2-11.5-12.2
Ohio St.Wisconsin15.213.816.7
LibertyAkron24.025.327.3
Florida St.Boston College17.114.917.7
TennesseeFlorida15.614.416.1
CincinnatiIndiana13.213.317.7
East CarolinaNavy16.216.919.2
Georgia SouthernBall St.9.98.410.4
Eastern MichiganBuffalo9.57.67.7
Appalachian St.James Madison8.68.46.1
RutgersIowa-9.2-8.5-10.3
KansasDuke17.513.217.8
NorthwesternMiami (O)8.67.13.9
Old DominionArkansas St.9.88.49.0
ColoradoUCLA-12.0-13.9-14.7
BYUWyoming28.724.527.2
New Mexico St.Hawaii5.15.73.8
Arizona St.Utah-11.5-10.7-12.5
Oregon St.USC1.60.51.5
San Diego St.Toledo4.53.23.2
Washington St.Oregon-7.7-6.3-6.1
CaliforniaArizona4.85.06.2
WashingtonStanford8.011.711.3
TroyMarshall-1.5-2.2-0.4
South AlabamaLouisiana Tech11.010.014.0
Mississippi St.Bowling Green30.329.729.4
OklahomaKansas St.13.414.114.6
Ole MissTulsa23.922.722.5
AlabamaVanderbilt37.135.039.9
SMUTCU-5.7-4.9-3.9
Texas TechTexas-2.7-3.3-1.3
UL-MonroeLouisiana-9.6-9.9-12.7
Texas A&M (n)Arkansas-4.6-1.7-3.6
HoustonRice20.520.121.8
MemphisNorth Texas16.718.115.7
TulaneSouthern Miss.17.415.916.2
AuburnMissouri8.56.78.3
Western KentuckyFlorida Int’l.35.032.139.3
Utah St.UNLV1.03.41.7
PurdueFlorida Atlantic31.528.929.4
LSUNew Mexico33.832.533.9
San Jose St.Western Michigan-1.7-2.4-1.5

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
IllinoisChattanooga23.8
OhioFordham16.7
Texas St.Houston Baptist26.4
PittsburghRhode Island32.0
Colorado St.Sacramento St.-3.0
UTSATexas Southern37.2

Teams With Byes

Army
Fresno St.
Nebraska
Oklahoma St.
UAB

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia135.3
2Alabama129.5
3Ohio St.128.8
4Michigan124.6
5Oklahoma120.7
6Clemson119.7
7Tennessee118.2
8Penn St.118.2
9NC State117.1
10Wisconsin116.6
11Oklahoma St.116.5
12Minnesota116.4
13Utah116.3
14Ole Miss115.8
15Purdue115.2
16Michigan St.115.2
17Arkansas115.1
18L S U114.9
19Miami (Fla.)114.8
20Baylor114.6
21Pittsburgh114.3
22Mississippi St.113.5
23Kentucky113.4
24Oregon113.0
25Florida St.112.5
26Texas112.5
27Iowa112.4
28Cincinnati112.2
29Texas A&M111.8
30U S C111.6
31Notre Dame111.3
32BYU111.0
33T C U110.7
34Maryland110.0
35Oregon St.109.8
36Iowa St.109.7
37Kansas St.109.6
38Washington108.7
39Syracuse108.3
40Louisville108.1
41U C L A107.7
42North Carolina107.7
43Texas Tech107.5
44South Carolina107.0
45UCF106.6
46Auburn106.2
47Florida105.9
48Wake Forest105.6
49Illinois105.5
50West Virginia104.5
51SMU104.4
52Boise St.104.2
53Washington St.103.3
54Kansas102.8
55Tulane102.7
56Houston102.4
57Air Force102.3
58Arizona St.101.8
59Fresno St.101.7
60East Carolina101.7
61Stanford101.4
62Missouri101.4
63Virginia100.9
64Nebraska100.3
65Rutgers100.1
66Indiana99.9
67Appalachian St.99.7
68Virginia Tech99.6
69U A B98.9
70Boston College98.9
71California98.7
72W. Kentucky98.5
73Army98.4
74Memphis98.3
75Liberty98.2
76U T S A97.1
77Georgia St.96.8
78Northwestern96.6
79Arizona96.3
80Marshall95.8
81Tulsa95.8
82N. Illinois95.6
83San Diego St.95.2
84Vanderbilt95.2
85James Madison95.0
86Louisiana94.8
87Toledo94.5
88USF94.3
89Coastal Carolina93.6
90Western Mich.93.2
91Central Mich.93.2
92Miami (Ohio)92.5
93Troy92.0
94South Alabama91.4
95Georgia Tech91.2
96Colorado91.2
97U N L V91.2
98Old Dominion90.8
99Ga. Southern90.3
100Utah St.90.2
101Duke89.6
102Kent St.89.0
103Eastern Mich.88.8
104San Jose St.88.3
105Florida Atlantic88.3
106Southern Miss.88.1
107Navy87.2
108Wyoming87.2
109Bowling Green86.7
110Nevada86.5
111Ohio85.4
112Middle Tennessee84.8
113Arkansas St.84.8
114New Mexico84.6
115Colorado St.84.1
116North Texas83.9
117Ball St.83.7
118Buffalo83.5
119U T E P83.2
120Rice82.6
121Louisiana Tech82.2
122UL-Monroe82.0
123Texas St.80.9
124Charlotte80.2
125Temple79.6
126Connecticut77.2
127Akron75.1
128New Mexico St.73.9
129Hawaii72.5
130Massachusetts72.2
131Florida Int’l.65.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati111.8111.2113.5112.2
UCF106.1106.8106.8106.6
SMU104.5103.8104.9104.4
Tulane103.1102.4102.5102.7
Houston102.5101.7103.1102.4
East Carolina101.4101.1102.5101.7
Memphis98.298.698.098.3
Tulsa96.095.496.095.8
USF95.093.894.194.3
Navy88.287.286.387.2
Temple79.681.977.379.6

AAC98.898.598.698.6

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson119.6119.5120.1119.7
NC State117.4116.4117.5117.1
Florida St.112.8112.2112.4112.5
Syracuse109.1108.0107.9108.3
Louisville108.9107.7107.7108.1
Wake Forest105.9105.5105.4105.6
Boston College98.7100.397.798.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Fla.)115.3114.1114.9114.8
Pittsburgh115.2114.1113.7114.3
North Carolina107.6107.9107.6107.7
Virginia101.6101.699.6100.9
Virginia Tech100.1100.698.099.6
Georgia Tech92.191.789.991.2
Duke89.692.287.089.6

ACC106.7106.5105.7106.3

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma120.9120.1121.1120.7
Oklahoma St.117.1115.6116.9116.5
Baylor115.2114.0114.5114.6
Texas113.1112.2112.1112.5
T C U111.7110.2110.4110.7
Iowa St.109.5109.7110.0109.7
Kansas St.110.5109.0109.4109.6
Texas Tech107.9106.4108.3107.5
West Virginia105.1104.7103.6104.5
Kansas104.2102.4101.8102.8

Big 12111.5110.4110.8110.9

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.129.2127.5129.9128.8
Michigan125.0123.8125.0124.6
Penn St.118.3118.2118.1118.2
Michigan St.116.2115.1114.4115.2
Maryland110.1110.1109.8110.0
Rutgers101.3100.798.3100.1
Indiana101.1100.498.399.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin117.0116.6116.2116.6
Minnesota116.5115.9116.9116.4
Purdue116.3115.1114.2115.2
Iowa113.5112.2111.6112.4
Illinois105.9106.5104.2105.5
Nebraska100.9100.699.5100.3
Northwestern96.998.094.896.6

Big Ten112.0111.5110.8111.4

Conference USA
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B98.398.599.998.9
W. Kentucky97.797.6100.298.5
U T S A97.696.297.597.1
Florida Atlantic87.889.287.888.3
Middle Tennessee84.085.285.384.8
North Texas84.083.084.883.9
U T E P83.483.083.183.2
Rice83.082.682.382.6
Louisiana Tech82.183.680.982.2
Charlotte79.980.979.780.2
Florida Int’l.65.268.063.465.5

CUSA85.786.285.985.9

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame111.9110.1112.0111.3
BYU111.6109.8111.5111.0
Army98.298.698.598.4
Liberty96.898.699.198.2
Connecticut77.878.775.177.2
New Mexico St.73.575.372.873.9
Massachusetts72.973.370.472.2

Independents91.892.191.391.7

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)90.893.493.492.5
Kent St.88.190.488.489.0
Bowling Green87.286.286.686.7
Ohio84.286.385.685.4
Buffalo82.184.684.083.5
Akron75.375.874.375.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
N. Illinois95.595.895.595.6
Toledo93.794.795.294.5
Western Mich.92.693.693.593.2
Central Mich.91.693.594.493.2
Eastern Mich.88.689.188.688.8
Ball St.83.484.583.483.7

MAC87.889.088.688.4

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.3103.3104.9104.2
Air Force101.9101.9103.2102.3
Utah St.89.990.190.690.2
Wyoming85.988.387.387.2
New Mexico84.785.283.884.6
Colorado St.83.984.783.984.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.101.6100.9102.6101.7
San Diego St.95.294.995.495.2
U N L V91.889.791.991.2
San Jose St.87.888.289.088.3
Nevada85.987.885.986.5
Hawaii71.973.272.672.5

MWC90.490.790.990.7

Pac-12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah116.2115.1117.8116.3
Oregon113.4112.8112.8113.0
U S C111.1111.7112.1111.6
Oregon St.109.7109.2110.6109.8
Washington107.9108.9109.2108.7
U C L A107.3107.2108.7107.7
Washington St.102.7103.4103.7103.3
Arizona St.101.6101.4102.3101.8
Stanford102.9100.3100.9101.4
California98.298.399.598.7
Arizona96.496.396.396.3
Colorado92.290.391.091.2

Pac-12105.0104.6105.4105.0

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia135.3133.8136.9135.3
Tennessee118.0118.1118.6118.2
Kentucky112.6113.4114.1113.4
South Carolina107.5106.5107.1107.0
Florida105.3106.8105.5105.9
Missouri101.6102.0100.4101.4
Vanderbilt95.396.393.895.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama129.4128.4130.7129.5
Ole Miss116.9115.1115.5115.8
Arkansas115.6113.8116.0115.1
L S U115.5114.6114.7114.9
Mississippi St.114.5112.9113.1113.5
Texas A&M111.0112.1112.4111.8
Auburn107.2105.7105.7106.2

SEC113.3112.8113.2113.1

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Appalachian St.98.3100.0100.799.7
Georgia St.96.395.598.596.8
Marshall95.396.495.795.8
James Madison92.794.697.695.0
Coastal Carolina92.494.094.593.6
Old Dominion90.890.990.890.8
Ga. Southern90.389.890.890.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana93.994.296.194.8
Troy91.391.792.992.0
South Alabama90.691.192.491.4
Southern Miss.87.788.488.388.1
Arkansas St.84.085.584.884.8
UL-Monroe82.382.481.482.0
Texas St.80.381.481.080.9

Sun Belt90.591.191.891.1

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern113.1
2Big Ten111.4
3Big 12110.9
4Atlantic Coast106.3
5Pac-12105.0
6American Athletic98.6
7Independents91.7
8Sun Belt91.1
9Mountain West90.7
10Mid-American88.4
11Conference USA85.9

Playoff Projections

1.) Georgia

2.) Ohio St.

3.) Alabama

4.) Oklahoma

Most Likely Top Group of 5 Team

For Automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl Game

1.) Coastal Carolina

2.) Cincinnati

3.) Appalachian St.

4.) Tulane

September 8, 2022

PiRate Picks For September 9-10, 2022

Last week, the most important part of our PiRate Picks publication was telling you that a broken clock is still correct twice a day. Please remember this, because we have experienced our broken clock accuracy up front this year. For the second week in a row, our selections went 3-0 to give us a 6-0 record to start the season. We know there are about 150-200 new visitors to this site since the 2021-22 College Football National Championship. Get this and get it good–we are not svengali’s. We are not Billy Walters. We aren’t even Brent Musberger and his incredible cast of handicappers. What are we? Really lucky and not much more than that.

Every week, we preface our selections by urging (begging) you not to wager real currency on the selections you read on this site. We know that there are a considerable number of professional speculators in the Nevada gold mines. We don’t have to tell you what to do with your occupation. It’s Joe Tackletrap in Wichita Falls, Texas, who makes $40,000 a year working himself silly that can ill afford to lose $500 that we have concerns about losing $500 because he wagered $100 each on five selections and lost them all, as he saw his mortgage payment money taken away.

Last week, we casually mentioned that there were some people in Nevada that we had information that they were following this site. Wow! We heard from six different people, two of whom represent a consortium of others, telling us they follow this site. And, they were not all from Las Vegas. We have to give some love to the biggest little city in America–Reno. There’s somebody there that sent us a little note.

For one paragraph, let’s pretend that we really did speculate these first two weeks of the football season, wagering $100 ($110) on margins and totals and $100 on the money line parlay. With the 6-0 record, including a parlay that paid back $241.77, our pretend starting bank account of $1,000 would now be worth $1,641.77. Making a 64% profit in two weeks in real life would quickly lead us to cash out and play no more games. That would be our Holiday Fund for this year.

What are the chances that our picks will be perfect again this week? The prior best first three week start we have ever had was a 9-3-1 start to the 2008 season. In most years, September is our worst month, with a big turnaround in October. Thus, we still do not have much confidence in our September picks. It’s merely the law of averages giving us a positive outlier.

Now that we have adequately warned you, we present our picks for this week. We are going with five selections.

Selection #1: Missouri and Kansas State UNDER 56 1/2

Our belief here is that the Wildcats will play a bit conservatively in the first half trying to keep the ball away from the Tiger offense, as Coach Chris Kleiman is a defense first leader. Missouri scored 52 points against a weak Louisiana Tech defense, and our belief is that the totals line might be a tad too high due to this. KSU’s defense pitched a shutout over FCS South Dakota. The Coyotes are not the top team in the Mount Rushmore state, but their offense is consistent. We see this game as a 28-20 win for the Wildcats. That gives us an extra touchdown to be wrong and still be right.

Selection #2: Iowa and Iowa State OVER 39 1/2

Iowa failed to reach the end zone against South Dakota State, winning 7-3 on a field goal and two safeties. The public looked at a Big Ten team’s offense failing to score on an FCS opponent and didn’t realize two important factors. First, South Dakota State is probably better than 60-75 FBS teams. Second, a college football team improves the most during a season in the practices between game one and game two. You can bet that this week in Iowa City, the offensive units in Hawkeye Land have had just about enough of hearing how lame they were in the opener. Over in Ames, Iowa State’s offense is far superior to its defense. Giving up 10 points to SEMO is nothing like Iowa’s holding SDSU to 3. SEMO is a mediocre Ohio Valley Conference team. Iowa will unleash its offense this week and top 20 points. Our hope is that Iowa State will respond in kind and make this a 24-21 game, topping 39 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Florida and Kentucky OVER 52 1/2

Florida came through for us last week, winning as an underdog when we believed the wrong team was favored. Kentucky overcame a slow start and eventually slaughtered a decent but not spectacular Miami of Ohio team. We believe that the Florida team that almost beat Alabama in 2021 before the team quit on former coach Dan Mullen has returned. If they could score 29 on Alabama last year and 29 on a tough Utah defense in week one, the Gators should put the chomp on Kentucky’s defense for more than 35 points. Can Kentucky’s offense produce 17 points or more? We think they Wildcats will top 20 points, and thus we believe the total in this game will top 56.

Selection #4: Arizona +11 1/2 vs. Mississippi State

This game is a tad different from how we normally play home underdogs. We tend to like our home dogs to get 1 to 7 points. We are making an exception here because it is our belief that few too people saw how the Wildcats went to San Diego State on the Christening of their new stadium and spoiled the party for the home team. We have been keeping our eyes on Coach Jedd Fisch since his arrival in Tucson. It is our beliefe that ‘Zona may have found their football equivalent of Lute Olson. His pedigree is about as incredible as a long-time assistant coach can own. Going up against a Mike Leach-coached team, this late night desert dogfight is going to give us reason to brew an evening pot of coffee. This could be the most entertaining game of Week Two, and we expect the home team to be in it for the entire 60 minutes. What’s great about this selection is that the superior SEC is having to play at the Pac-12 opponent’s home field rather than watch the Pac-12 team make the 2,000+ mile trip to the Southeast. Mississippi State could win this game 31-21, 34-24, 38-28, 35-24, 38-27 and still not cover. We tend to believe that this game will be a 3 to 7 point game in either direction.

Selection #5: Money Line Parlay at +172.97

Central Florida over Louisville

Arkansas over South Carolina

Florida over Kentucky

Louisville looked terrible in a blowout loss at Syracuse and did not look ready to play. Coach Scott Satterfield is sitting on a scorching hot seat, as he has had UL detractors since his hiring. At the same time, Gus Malzahn has quickly become a favored coach in Orlando, and Central Florida looks like a real contender for the American Athletic Conference Championship. In addition, UCF has had this game circled on their schedule and calendar. UL won this game on a pick six last year. The Cardinals are headed to an ambush in Orlando.

The Arkansas-South Carolina game should be quite interesting as two very good SEC teams face off in Fayetteville. We were a bit concerned with Spencer Rattler’s performance against Georgia State, as it was a little too similar to the performances he turned in at Oklahoma, which cost him his starting spot. Arkansas has a much better pass rush and secondary than Georgia State, and their offense at times pushed Cincinnati’s defense around. We see Pig Sooey winning by 10-14 points if not more.

Kentucky has defeated Florida twice in four years, after going mutiple decades without a win over the Gators. Billy Napier has quickly become a favorite in the Swamp almost on par with Steve Spurrier. He probably is the most like former Gator coaches Ray Graves and Doug Dickey than Spurrier or any coaches since. The Gators will be prepared and ready to play every week. Napier is part of both the Nick Saben and Dabo Swinney coaching trees. He knows how to run a program, and his year at Louisiana proved it. Kentucky and coach Mark Stoops are not exactly chopped liver. The Wildcats have a potent team with an NFL prospect under center. Will Levis could be a top three pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kentucky could be the second best team in the SEC East, but they could be the third or fourth best too. We believe that the Gators will come into this game not resting on their laurels after pulling off the biggest win of Week One. Napier won’t let them get swollen heads. We’re going with Florida in a thriller, and we see the Gators winning 38-28.

September 1, 2022

PiRate Picks–September 1-5, 2022

You know what they say about a broken clock being accurate twice a day? The PiRate Ratings happened to hit the right time on our broken clock in week one. We began the season with three totals’ plays in Week 0, and by luck, all three won. So, we start the season 3-0 against the spread, but are our picks a broken clock that happened to get lucky and be broken on the right time, or did we legitimately begin the season on a winning note?

In most years, our picks begin seasons on a somewhat mediocre beginning and then hit a hot spot in October and early November. What are we to make of a 3-0 start, where if we had begun with an imaginary bank account of $1,000 and wagered $100 on each of the three picks, we would have $1,300 in our account today? Maybe, if we were smart enough, we’d cash in our winning 30% profit and go away for the season. Not many people can make a 30% profit on an investment in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub. In actuality a 30% profit on $0 is still $0. We could lose every pick we make the rest of the season, and we will have the same amount of real money we would have if we won every wager the rest of the year, because out real investment in this is $0. We never wager real money on these picks, and please don’t do so either.

Some of you do wager for real. We hope this site is merely an addendum to your process.

We have chosen three more selections in Week 1 of the College Football Season, and the three selections involve three different types of wagers. We are going with one side, one total, and one Money Line Parlay with a potential payoff of 141.77%.

Selection #1: Florida + 2 1/2 vs. Utah

Utah probably has three key games this year, where if the Utes go 3-0, they might be 13-0 when the College Football Playoff Committee chooses the four big teams. This is one of those three. I’d really like to see this game move to 3 1/2 points, because about 1 of every 11 college football games end with a 3-point spread. However, this one is a game where we believe the wrong team might be favored. Florida was much better than their record last year. The Gators basically mailed it in the second half of the year, and Dan Mullen was shown the door. New coach Billy Napier has restored the faith at the Swamp. While this Gator team has some vulnerable areas, maybe on the offensive side of the ball, the thought here is that the defense will be fired up and play above their heads in Napier’s first game. While the average of the three PiRate Ratings show Utah to be more than a 6-point favorite in this game, the thought here is that the Gators will be a touchdown better than their real worth, and that makes Florida a slight favorite. Getting 2 1/2 points when the underdog looks like a 55% outright winner is enough to work and make this a pick.

Selection #2: Michigan and Colorado St. UNDER 61 1/2

The question here to us is, “Can Michigan score over 50 points in this game?” The reason we ask this is that Colorado State is likely to score 10 points or less trying to break in a new offense with a new coach and without the necessary players to make it work? Michigan figures to win this game by more than 4 touchdowns, more likely 5 touchdowns. A score of 45-10 looks about right here, and that’s 6 1/2 points less than the total for this game.

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay–3 games at +141.77

Pittsburgh over West Virginia

TCU over Colorado

Houston over UTSA

The Backyard Brawl to start the season is an incredible first game rivalry. Pittsburgh lost a lot of talent off last year’s team, but the Panthers had a good bit of depth. Meanwhile, West Virginia is slowly building up their talent level, but the Mountaineers have a long way to go. In fact, this could be the year where the game with Kansas determines which team finishes last in the Big 12. Pittsburgh looks 10-13 points better to start the season.

TCU starts a new era in Fort Worth for the first time since 2000. Sonny Dykes tries to give the Horned Frogs a little more offense and brings more of a passing game, air-raid style. After surprising some people in the 2020 Covid year and guiding the Buffs to four consecutive wins to start his tenure in Boulder, Colorado has since gone 4-10. This game looks like a 10-14 point win for TCU.

Houston figures to contend along with Central Florida as Cincinnati’s top competitors in the American Athletic Conference. While UTSA is a top of the food chain team in CUSA, they are not ready to stake a claim to second best team in the Lonestar State after Texas A&M. Even playing in San Antonio, the Cougars are at least a touchdown better than the Roadrunners.

Season to Date

Beginning Bankroll (not real): $1,000

Imaginary Investment Last Week: $300

Outcome 3-0

Imaginary return $600

New Bank Account: $1,300

August 19, 2022

SEC Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am

Current Penn State head football coach James Franklin once said when he was the head coach at Vanderbilt that there were three major football leagues in America: The NFC, The AFC, and The SEC. This conference has dominated the National Championship Playoffs placing two teams in the four-team field multiple times. Prior to the Playoff era, it produced multiple BCS Championship Game teams, including an Alabama-LSU game. Prior to the BCS era, it produced multiple mythical national champions. It wasn’t just Alabama. Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee claimed titles. Former member Georgia Tech did as well.

The SEC was the pioneer of divisional play with a conference championship game, when Arkansas and South Carolina joined the league in 1991. It was the first conference to expand to 12 teams. Adding Texas A&M and Missouri, it became the first major conference to expand to 14 teams, and by announcing the addition of Texas and Oklahoma in the near future, it became the first major conference to expand to 16. It isn’t the first attempt at a 16-team league, as the Western Athletic Conference expanded to 16 teams in 1996. That overgrowth lasted three seasons, before the league realized that travel expenses were too high and revenue too low to continue. The Mountain West Conference was formed when the league split in half.

The opposite will be true when a 16-team SEC begins in 2024 or 2025. The media rights package will pay each member school about $100 million apiece. Travel from Gainesvile, Florida to Austin, Texas, or Columbia, South Carolina to Norman, Oklahoma will not be a cost probitive as travel from Houston, Texas to Honolulu, Hawaii, as the old WAC had to do. Of course, the TV ratings will be many times greater.

Will the SEC be content to stop at 16 teams in the near future? Commissioner Greg Sankey has admitted multiple times, almost stressing it a bit too far, that multiple school presidents and athletic directors had contacted him about admittance to the league. Sankey wouldn’t continually announce this news if he wasn’t trying to keep it in the news. It looks like a quasi-threat to the other big league that will soon stretch from coast to coast that he can expand to 20 or even 24 teams quite easily.

What about 2022? A year after Alabama and Georgia met in a spectacular National Championship Game, it looks quite possible that the two teams could produce an encore performance. Georgia lost enough talent to form a new team and gain bowl eligibility. Losing that many NFL Draftees, it should lead to a major rebuilding effort. However, Kirby Smart has so much talent on board in Athens. Last year’s Bulldogs’ second team was still the second best team in the SEC East. Those players are a year more experienced, and there is still first team talent remaining. The talent is so abundant with depth that Smart didn’t seek out any added players in the Transfer Portal. Georgia could easily go 12-0 in the regular season again this year, because the rest of the division teams have too many weaknesses.

The second, third, fourth, and fifth best teams all have enough talent to win nine games this year. Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina return exceptional players on both sides of the ball and add players that should contribute this year. But, none of the quartet can go 7-1 in SEC play. Even if Georgia is upset by one of these four, the Bulldogs will go 7-1.

Florida could surprise a lot of people this year. This team has a lot more talent than their 2021 record showed. The team quit on former coach Dan Mullen. They will give their all for new coach Billy Napier, who comes to Gainesville after making the University of Louisiana a top 20 team.

South Carolina could be the other surprise. At this time last year, former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler was the early Heisman Trophy candidate. He’s now a Gamecock, and if he can regain his old form, USC has a chance to increase their points per game by 10 points.

Missouri faces a rebuilding effort under second year coach Eliah Drinkwitz. The Tigers have a tough non-conference game at Kansas State, and it may require a win in that game for MU to gain bowl eligibility this year. It isn’t likely to happen.

As for Vanderbilt, second year coach Clarke Lea might have a better team this year than last, but this team is so far behind the rest of the league, that it would be a minor miracle for the Commodores to win a conference game. Vandy has lost its last 18 SEC games, and that number will likely rise to 26 at the end of the year. This isn’t foreign to this school; they once lost 33 consecutive SEC games from 1976 to 1981.

As for the West, here is something scary. Last year, when Alabama went 11-1 in the regular season, slaughtered eventual national champion Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, easily dismissed Cincinnati in the College Football Playoffs as the #1 seed and then sort of blew the National Championship Game against Georgia, it was, according to Coach Nick Saban, a rebuilding season in Tuscaloosa. Saban doesn’t make statements like this often. He’s warning the rest of the nation that he has a team for the ages for 2022. By team for the ages, I refer to legendary college teams like Nebraska in 1971 and 1995, Miami of Florida in 1988 and 2001, and USC in 1972 and 2004. Basically, he is calling this team the equal of the 2020 team that went 13-0 with an average game score of 49-19. If Alabama loses a regular season game, it will make news in 2022.

SEC Preseason PiRate Ratings

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia130.5128.6132.1130.4
Tennessee115.1114.8115.2115.0
Kentucky112.0112.7113.2112.6
South Carolina109.4108.7108.8109.0
Florida105.8107.9106.2106.6
Missouri103.9104.0102.9103.6
Vanderbilt91.092.289.290.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama128.9127.6130.5129.0
Arkansas115.8113.8116.0115.2
Texas A&M113.3114.7114.7114.2
Mississippi St.115.1113.0113.4113.8
L S U112.9112.1112.1112.4
Ole Miss113.3111.3111.7112.1
Auburn112.0110.5110.8111.1

SEC112.8112.3112.6112.6

Preseason Official SEC Media Poll (I voted in this poll)

Votes
#East1st PlaceOverall
1Georgia1721254
2Kentucky4932
3Tennessee1929
4Florida0712
5South Carolina3662
6Missouri0383
7Vanderbilt1196

#West1st PlaceOverall
1Alabama1771262
2Texas A&M3968
3Arkansas1844
4Ole Miss0675
5LSU0591
6Mississippi St.0390
7Auburn0338

ChampionshipOverall
Alabama158
Georgia18
South Carolina3
Vanderbilt1
Texas A&M1

The PiRate Ratings are not designed to look forward past the next week of games like other computer ratings. My ratings factor experience and depth into the power rating number. Teams with exceptional depth might gain points during the season regardless of the outcome of their previous game. Teams lacking experience but possessing exceptional talent might gain points during the year. Teams lacking depth might lose points during the year. Nevertheless, here are the predictions.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

EastConf.Overall
Georgia8-012-1
Kentucky4-48-4
Tennessee4-47-5
Florida4-46-6
South Carolina3-56-6
Missouri1-74-8
Vanderbilt0-82-10

WestConf.Overall
Alabama8-013-0
Arkansas5-39-3
Texas A&M5-39-3
LSU4-48-4
Mississippi State4-48-4
Ole Miss4-48-4
Auburn2-66-6

Coming Monday: The first regular season PiRate Ratings with spreads of Week 0 games. College football kicks off Saturday, August 27.

August 1, 2022

SEC PiRate Football Game

Filed under: PiRate Football Game — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:10 am

Hello out there to all the Southeastern Conference football fans. The long-awaited SEC 1960-1979 edition of the PiRate College Football Game is now on sale.

To order the game, go to: https://pirate-football.square.site/

Do you want to coach one of these teams?

1973 Alabama: The Tide offense rolled on the ground with their wishbone clicking on all cylinders, but the incredible passing game that led the nation in yards per completion and per attempt with Richard Todd and Gary Rutledge directing the attack, made this offense close to unstoppable.

1970 Auburn: Pat Sullivan really earned his Heisman Trophy in his junior year with much better overall passing stats than the following season when he actually got the award. Sullivan to Terry Beasley put a lot of touchdowns on the board.

1966 Florida: Steve Spurrier won the Heisman Trophy, while powerful running back Larry Smith kept defenses honest. Spurrier also punted and occasionally booted some field goals, including one important one that probably cemented his winning trip to the Downtown Athletic Club.

1971 Georgia: Local high school star Andy Johnson chose to stay home for college, and he ran the veer offense about as competently as any QB in the history of college football. Georgia didn’t pass a lot, but they moved the ball on the ground and ate the clock. The Junkyard Dog defense was tough against the run, especially plays run wide.

1977 Kentucky: The last Division 1 college team to run a full-house T-formation offense as their principal alignment, this Wildcats’ team played power football with strong-running QB Derrick Ramsey rolling out and usually keeping the ball. The defense was the real star of the show, as Art Still made life miserable for the other team’s QB.

1961 LSU: Coach Paul Dietzel believed this team was actually more talented than his 1958 national champions, but unfortunately, LSU didn’t play Alabama this year, and the two rivals split the SEC Championship.

1962 Ole Miss: Johnny Vaught was a legend in the quarter century following WWII. His teams were noted for wide open offense and a defense that limited the other team from having big plays. This was his lone undefeated and untied squad, and this Rebels’ team picked up a couple of national championship awards.

1963 Mississippi State: The Bulldogs’ defense was near the top in the nation in points and yards allowed, even though their schedule was also among the toughest in the nation. The Maroon Bullies upset a top-5 Auburn team and tied SEC Champion Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, before winning the last Liberty Bowl game played in Philadelphia.

1970 Tennessee: The Vols went 11-1 including a shutout win over Alabama and a blowout win i the Sugar Bowl over Air Force. This team intercepted an incredible 36 passes to lead the nation by far.

1974 Vanderbilt: Former Alabama QB Steve Sloan came to Vandy and immediately turned the program around, going 7-3-2 in his second year in Nashville and fielding the number one offense in the SEC. Vandy’s big win in 1974 was a thrashing of undefeated and #5 Florida.

February 28, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:10 pm
Date2/28/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1ArizonaGonzagaBaylorKansas
2AuburnDukeKentuckyPurdue
3Texas TechVillanovaWisconsinTennessee
4ProvidenceIllinoisConnecticutUCLA
5TexasArkansasOhio St.Alabama
6HoustonSaint Mary’sUSCMichigan St.
7LSUMarquetteIowaIowa St.
8Colorado St.Boise St.Seton HallMurray St.
9WyomingTCUNotre DameXavier
10CreightonSan FranciscoWake ForestDavidson
11North TexasNorth CarolinaSan Diego St.Miami (Fla.)
12IonaSouth Dakota St.IndianaMemphisMichiganSMU
13ChattanoogaNew Mexico St.ToledoVermont
14TowsonTexas St.PrincetonNorthern Iowa
15Jacksonville St.Montana St.Long Beach St.Longwood
16ColgatePurdue Ft. WayneBryantNicholls St.Norfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69Loyola (Chi.)
70BYU
71Rutgers
72Florida
73VCU
74Virginia Tech
75Oregon
76St. Bonaventure
77Dayton
78Oklahoma
79Mississippi St.
80Belmont

February 22, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 22, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
North DakotaSt. Thomas-0.9
DartmouthYale-2.2
MissouriTennessee-12.5
FloridaArkansas-0.6
IowaMichigan St.5.6
NortheasternCharleston-1.1
MonmouthSiena9.2
St. BonaventureRhode Island7.1
George WashingtonRichmond-6.4
Eastern MichiganNorthern Illinois2.6
Kent St.Ball St.9.6
AkronBowling Green8.1
Miami (O)Buffalo-6.5
Western MichiganToledo-15.3
OhioCentral Michigan17.6
Texas A&MGeorgia12.2
ConnecticutVillanova0.4
Texas TechOklahoma9.3
PittsburghMiami (Fla.)-4.4
Saint LouisSaint Joseph’s11.8
NorthwesternNebraska11.2
KansasKansas St.13.0
VanderbiltAlabama-3.8
Air ForceFresno St.-8.7
Boise St.San Diego St.2.0
Cal PolyCal St. Bakersfield-1.5
Utah St.New Mexico12.1
NevadaUNLV0.3

February 21, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:40 pm
Date2/21/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaKansasAuburn
2KentuckyBaylorPurdueDuke
3Texas TechIllinoisVillanovaTennessee
4WisconsinUCLAProvidenceTexas
5AlabamaHoustonOhio St.Connecticut
6LSUArkansasMichigan St.USC
7MarquetteSaint Mary’sXavierColorado St.
8Boise St.Iowa St.Seton HallMurray St.
9WyomingIowaSan FranciscoTCU
10Wake ForestDavidsonSan Diego St.Creighton
11Notre DameMiami (Fla.)IndianaMemphisMichigan
12North TexasIonaChattanoogaLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
13South Dakota St.New Mexico St.Northern IowaVermont
14ToledoWagnerTowsonMontana St.
15Jacksonville St.PrincetonTexas St.UC-Irvine
16Cleveland St.ColgateLongwoodNew OrleansNorfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69BYU
70SMU
71Florida
72Rutgers
73VCU
74Belmont
75Oklahoma
76Oregon

February 18, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:07 pm
Date2/18/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnArizonaKansas
2BaylorKentuckyPurdueVillanova
3DukeTexas TechWisconsinTennessee
4ProvidenceUCLAIllinoisTexas
5HoustonOhio St.AlabamaLSU
6ConnecticutMichigan St.ArkansasMarquette
7USCXavierColorado St.Saint Mary’s
8IowaMurray St.Seton HallBoise St.
9Wake ForestIowa St.Loyola (Chi.)Wyoming
10TCUMiami (Fla.)IndianaSan Francisco
11DavidsonNotre DameMemphisMichigan
12North TexasIonaSan Diego St.CreightonNorth CarolinaOklahoma
13ChattanoogaSouth Dakota St.OhioVermont
14New Mexico St.WagnerMontana St.Texas St.
15Cleveland St.LibertyYaleColgate
16Long Beach St.LongwoodUNC WilmingtonNorfolk St.New OrleansSouthern

Best of the Rest

69Belmont
70Oregon
71Florida
72BYU
73Rutgers
74UAB
75SMU
76Virginia Tech

February 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, February 12, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
AuburnTexas A&M14.0
BaylorTexas6.5
LehighLafayette3.7
GeorgetownCreighton-5.0
MassachusettsSaint Joseph’s1.7
AlabamaArkansas4.4
KansasOklahoma10.3
VillanovaSeton Hall8.3
Boston UAmerican12.7
WagnerMerrimack15.2
Fairleigh DickinsonSacred Heart-2.5
Central ConnecticutSt. Francis (NY)-0.3
Indiana St.Illinois St.1.0
FairfieldNiagara2.0
ArmyNavy-5.1
WisconsinRutgers7.9
BucknellHoly Cross4.0
Morgan St.North Carolina Central-1.2
TulaneTemple4.3
Montana St.Northern Arizona13.9
Long IslandBryant-0.8
Gardner-WebbCharleston Southern17.5
North CarolinaFlorida St.7.3
ColumbiaYale-12.8
PennsylvaniaHarvard2.9
CornellBrown2.3
BinghamtonNew Hampshire0.3
Oklahoma St.West Virginia3.1
Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern5.6
DaytonGeorge Washington15.9
Rhode IslandDavidson-2.1
FurmanChattanooga3.0
DrexelNortheastern7.5
TowsonElon12.0
BuffaloBall St.11.7
GeorgiaSouth Carolina-2.7
RiceNorth Texas-5.7
Chicago St.Sam Houston-11.7
Wake ForestMiami6.8
PittsburghNC St.-0.4
Cleveland St.IUPUI22.0
UL MonroeTexas St.-3.6
LouisianaUT Arlington4.1
Western IllinoisNorth Dakota12.7
HoustonMemphis10.9
Michigan St.Indiana3.7
VMIThe Citadel8.5
Miami (O)Bowling Green1.2
Eastern MichiganOhio-10.2
KentuckyFlorida12.4
Texas TechTCU10.4
Morehead St.Murray St.-5.2
OregonCalifornia11.5
Coppin St.South Carolina St.6.5
UC San DiegoUC Riverside-4.2
Alcorn St.Bethune-Cookman8.9
HowardDelaware St.19.9
UTSAWestern Kentucky-12.0
Sacramento St.Southern Utah-7.5
Northwestern St.McNeese St.-0.9
NichollsTexas A&M-CC5.9
Utah ValleyNew Mexico St.-0.4
SeattleLamar17.2
St. Francis (PA)Mount St. Mary’s-1.7
USC UpstateUNC Asheville-0.1
North Carolina A&TLongwood-5.1
VirginiaGeorgia Tech8.6
PrincetonDartmouth7.2
Florida Gulf CoastStetson7.9
Iowa St.Kansas St.4.2
Appalachian St.Georgia St.3.5
Missouri St.Valparaiso13.1
George MasonVCU-0.1
DenverSouth Dakota-3.5
East Tennessee St.Samford5.2
James MadisonWilliam & Mary12.6
ButlerMarquette-6.2
SIU EdwardsvilleTennessee Tech-0.8
Eastern IllinoisUT Martin-5.7
Texas SouthernGrambling11.6
WinthropPresbyterian8.2
North AlabamaBellarmine-4.1
Northern IllinoisToledo-14.2
Boston CollegeDuke-14.1
Alabama A&MMississippi Valley St.11.5
Loyola (MD)Colgate-6.5
Southeast Missouri St.Belmont-13.9
Austin PeayTennessee St.4.3
IdahoWeber St.-9.9
Eastern WashingtonIdaho St.12.5
SE LouisianaHouston Baptist8.6
New OrleansIncarnate Word11.1
UMass LowellMaryland Baltimore Co.2.0
LipscombEastern Kentucky-0.9
Jacksonville St.Central Arkansas16.0
TroyLittle Rock12.9
South Dakota St.Omaha24.5
Alabama St.Arkansas-Pine Bluff9.9
HamptonRadford-1.4
Kennesaw St.North Florida5.1
DuquesneFordham0.4
WashingtonArizona-15.7
MichiganOhio St.2.4
TennesseeVanderbilt13.4
East CarolinaSMU-7.8
Norfolk St.Maryland-Eastern Shore11.3
Santa ClaraSan Francisco-0.3
High PointCampbell0.4
Virginia TechSyracuse6.0
JacksonvilleLiberty-4.4
RichmondLa Salle13.3
ProvidenceDePaul7.8
Prairie View A&MSouthern-3.4
Jackson St.Florida A&M4.4
DelawareHofstra0.1
ClemsonNotre Dame2.5
AlbanyVermont-10.7
NJITHartford1.5
Purdue Fort WayneIllinois Chicago4.1
South AlabamaArkansas St.5.7
WoffordWestern Carolina14.0
UNC WilmingtonCharleston0.8
MaristCanisius8.1
Western MichiganCentral Michigan0.4
Wichita StateSouth Florida14.4
TulsaCincinnati-4.2
ColoradoUtah4.9
TarletonAbilene Christian0.3
San DiegoPacific7.4
Southern IllinoisEvansville12.4
BradleyDrake2.3
Oral RobertsKansas City7.8
St. ThomasNorth Dakota St.-5.5
LSUMississippi St.8.0
San Diego St.Air Force18.3
MissouriMississippi-0.5
MinnesotaPenn St.0.7
MontanaPortland St.5.7
Dixie St.Grand Canyon-10.0
San Jose St.Wyoming-13.8
GonzagaSaint Mary’s16.2
USCUCLA-2.4
Washington St.Arizona St.11.4
Cal St. BakersfieldCal St. Northridge7.3
Cal PolyUC Santa Barbara-9.5
California BaptistUT Rio Grande Valley6.9
PepperdineBYU-13.7
PortlandLoyola Marymount0.8
Oregon St.Stanford-4.5
HawaiiCal St. Fullerton3.0

Great TV Watching Today–Our Best Bets

Time (EST)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMESPN2BaylorTexas
12:00 PMSECNAlabamaArkansas
1:00 PMCBSKansasOklahoma
1:00 PMFOXVillanovaSeton Hall
2:00 PMFS1WisconsinRutgers
2:00 PMESPN+FurmanChattanooga
3:00 PMACCNWake ForestMiami (Fla.)
3:30 PMABCHoustonMemphis
3:30 PMFOXMichigan St.Indiana
4:00 PMESPNKentuckyFlorida
4:00 PMESPN+Texas TechTCU
4:00 PMESPN+Morehead St.Murray St.
4:00 PMESPNUIowa St.Kansas St.
6:00 PMPAC12WashingtonArizona
6:00 PMESPNMichiganOhio St.
8:00 PMESPN2LSUMississippi St.
10:00 PMESPN2GonzagaSaint Mary’s
10:00 PMESPNUSCUCLA
12:00 AMESPN2HawaiiCal St. Fullerton
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