The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:13 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday

September 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

Wake Forest

-21.7

-19.5

-22.2

Boise St.

Marshall

16.3

16.3

16.0

Saturday

September 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Pittsburgh

Ohio

13.7

14.6

11.6

Virginia Tech

Old Dominion

35.6

35.7

36.2

Akron

UAB

-1.6

-3.5

-2.3

Michigan

Army

21.5

19.6

22.1

Purdue

Vanderbilt

6.9

8.1

7.2

Iowa

Rutgers

25.8

23.0

25.7

Maryland

Syracuse

-4.9

-5.0

-6.2

Missouri

West Virginia

9.6

6.9

10.0

Ohio St.

Cincinnati

16.5

16.2

16.6

Kansas St.

Bowling Green

30.1

30.0

29.4

Utah

Northern Illinois

25.1

24.8

25.4

Georgia Tech

South Florida

12.7

10.1

13.5

Colorado

Nebraska

-2.7

-4.9

-2.3

Clemson

Texas A&M

18.2

15.5

20.4

Wisconsin

Central Michigan

39.1

37.5

38.7

Appalachian St.

Charlotte

21.3

18.5

19.9

Mississippi St.

Southern Miss.

23.8

21.5

23.0

Connecticut

Illinois

-23.6

-20.2

-24.6

Baylor

UTSA

35.1

32.2

34.9

Alabama

New Mexico St.

60.8

53.3

61.9

UCLA

San Diego St.

14.5

12.0

14.0

Florida St.

Louisiana-Monroe

19.1

19.2

19.3

Texas St.

Wyoming

-9.9

-11.4

-11.0

SMU

North Texas

8.0

7.9

7.5

Tennessee

BYU

8.5

8.2

6.7

Florida Atlantic

Central Florida

-15.9

-15.7

-16.3

Florida Int’l.

Western Kentucky

8.8

7.9

7.8

Kansas

Coastal Carolina

16.7

16.8

17.5

Louisiana

Liberty

8.7

7.3

7.3

Michigan St.

Western Michigan

17.8

18.8

17.7

Texas

LSU

-11.2

-8.4

-10.6

Auburn

Tulane

21.5

18.5

20.3

Ole Miss

Arkansas

5.4

3.4

5.0

Oregon

Nevada

21.7

20.0

23.0

Penn St.

Buffalo

33.1

31.1

32.0

Kentucky

Eastern Michigan

22.3

20.8

20.4

Texas Tech

UTEP

44.3

38.6

42.9

North Carolina

Miami (Fla.)

-7.1

-4.4

-6.8

USC

Stanford

-2.4

0.0

-2.1

Washington

California

9.3

8.4

9.2

Fresno St.

Minnesota

-8.4

-7.2

-6.5

Hawaii

Oregon St.

6.7

7.5

7.7

San Jose St.

Tulsa

-4.3

-2.4

-6.2

UNLV

Arkansas St.

-1.5

0.9

-1.0

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Virginia

William & Mary

35.8

Arizona St.

Sacramento St.

33.7

South Carolina

Charleston Sou.

38.6

Memphis

Southern U

36.4

Kent St.

Kennesaw St.

-1.8

North Carolina St.

Western Carolina

41.0

Ball St.

Fordham

25.9

Miami (O)

Tennessee Tech

35.1

Massachusetts

Southern Illinois

4.6

Indiana

Eastern Illinois

32.1

Boston College

Richmond

35.0

Louisiana Tech

Grambling

26.4

Georgia

Murray St.

52.3

Colorado St.

Western Illinois

6.4

Washington St.

Northern Colorado

41.9

East Carolina

Gardner-Webb

24.1

Georgia Southern

Maine

10.2

Duke

North Carolina A&T

26.9

Georgia St.

Furman

7.0

Louisville

Eastern Kentucky

19.9

Oklahoma St.

McNeese St.

36.8

South Alabama

Jackson St.

24.4

Oklahoma

South Dakota

38.3

Middle Tennessee

Tennessee St.

25.9

Florida

UT-Martin

42.6

Utah St.

Stony Brook

27.5

Houston

Prairie View

28.6

Arizona

Northern Arizona

23.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

135.8

131.5

136.7

134.6

2

Clemson

134.0

130.3

135.0

133.1

3

Georgia

125.9

123.9

126.3

125.4

4

L S U

126.1

123.3

125.0

124.8

5

Ohio St.

121.6

119.8

121.8

121.1

6

Michigan

121.3

119.3

121.8

120.8

7

Notre Dame

120.2

118.4

120.2

119.6

8

Oklahoma

119.9

118.9

119.6

119.5

9

Florida

120.0

117.1

119.0

118.7

10

Texas A&M

118.6

117.1

117.2

117.7

11

Penn St.

117.0

115.9

116.9

116.6

12

Utah

116.8

115.2

117.2

116.4

13

Auburn

117.2

114.8

116.5

116.2

14

Michigan St.

115.9

115.6

116.1

115.9

15

Mississippi St.

116.5

111.8

116.0

114.8

16

Wisconsin

114.4

113.9

114.1

114.1

17

Iowa

115.0

112.5

114.7

114.0

18

Oregon

113.1

113.1

114.2

113.5

19

Washington

113.3

112.5

114.4

113.4

20

Washington St.

113.1

112.3

113.5

113.0

21

Syracuse

112.0

111.8

112.3

112.0

22

Texas

111.9

111.8

111.5

111.7

23

Missouri

112.5

109.6

112.4

111.5

24

South Carolina

111.0

109.6

111.0

110.5

25

Minnesota

111.0

110.4

109.8

110.4

26

Baylor

110.4

110.3

109.9

110.2

27

Iowa St.

110.0

110.4

109.9

110.1

28

Northwestern

110.7

109.7

109.7

110.0

29

Miami (Fla.)

110.0

108.7

111.2

110.0

30

Oklahoma St.

109.8

110.4

109.3

109.8

31

Central Florida

109.3

108.3

110.4

109.3

32

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

33

Stanford

109.3

108.2

109.4

109.0

34

Virginia Tech

107.7

108.0

108.2

108.0

35

Purdue

108.2

108.1

107.6

108.0

36

Texas Tech

108.0

108.1

107.1

107.7

37

Indiana

108.6

106.8

107.4

107.6

38

Kentucky

108.4

107.2

107.2

107.6

39

Kansas St.

107.7

107.5

107.3

107.5

40

California

107.0

107.0

108.3

107.4

41

Arizona St.

107.3

106.3

107.7

107.1

42

Cincinnati

107.6

106.0

107.7

107.1

43

Tennessee

107.1

106.9

105.5

106.5

44

Boise St.

106.5

105.9

107.0

106.5

45

Nebraska

105.6

107.3

105.2

106.0

46

U C L A

106.0

105.6

105.3

105.7

47

West Virginia

105.9

105.7

105.4

105.6

48

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.6

105.2

105.6

49

Utah St.

105.4

104.2

106.8

105.4

50

Boston College

104.9

104.6

105.6

105.0

51

Florida St.

104.4

104.8

104.4

104.6

52

Appalachian St.

105.5

103.4

104.6

104.5

53

U S C

103.8

105.2

104.3

104.5

54

Memphis

104.0

103.5

105.1

104.2

55

Vanderbilt

104.3

103.0

103.4

103.6

56

North Carolina St.

103.2

103.2

104.0

103.5

57

Maryland

104.0

103.5

102.8

103.4

58

Wake Forest

103.6

102.9

103.7

103.4

59

Duke

103.5

102.9

103.2

103.2

60

North Carolina

102.0

103.2

103.4

102.9

61

Army

102.8

102.7

102.6

102.7

62

T C U

101.1

104.9

101.5

102.5

63

Temple

102.4

101.2

103.7

102.4

64

BYU

101.6

101.7

101.8

101.7

65

Ole Miss

102.0

100.9

100.8

101.2

66

Arizona

100.8

100.9

101.0

100.9

67

Fresno St.

99.6

100.2

100.3

100.0

68

Illinois

99.9

100.8

99.3

100.0

69

Western Michigan

100.1

98.7

100.4

99.7

70

Colorado

99.9

99.4

99.9

99.7

71

SMU

99.5

98.7

99.9

99.4

72

Georgia Tech

99.6

97.6

100.3

99.2

73

Arkansas

99.0

100.0

98.3

99.1

74

Tulane

98.7

99.3

99.1

99.0

75

Air Force

97.7

99.0

98.5

98.4

76

Hawaii

97.3

99.3

96.9

97.8

77

Wyoming

96.7

99.1

97.6

97.8

78

Houston

96.0

97.2

98.7

97.3

79

Ohio

96.3

95.0

97.8

96.4

80

Georgia Southern

95.9

95.1

95.1

95.4

81

Kansas

95.0

96.2

94.7

95.3

82

Nevada

94.4

96.1

94.2

94.9

83

Louisville

95.5

94.9

94.3

94.9

84

Troy

94.9

95.5

93.9

94.8

85

San Diego St.

94.1

96.1

93.8

94.7

86

Oregon St.

94.6

95.8

93.2

94.5

87

Northern Illinois

94.7

93.4

94.8

94.3

88

Southern Miss.

94.7

92.3

95.0

94.0

89

Louisiana

93.8

93.9

92.9

93.5

90

Marshall

93.1

92.6

94.0

93.2

91

North Texas

93.0

92.3

93.9

93.1

92

Rutgers

92.2

92.5

92.0

92.2

93

Middle Tennessee

91.8

91.0

92.1

91.6

94

Tulsa

91.2

91.6

92.1

91.6

95

Toledo

91.2

91.4

92.3

91.6

96

Florida Atlantic

91.4

90.6

92.1

91.4

97

Florida Int’l.

91.2

91.0

91.7

91.3

98

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

99

South Florida

90.4

91.5

90.5

90.8

100

Miami (Ohio)

90.8

89.1

91.3

90.4

101

Louisiana Tech

90.6

90.2

90.4

90.4

102

Eastern Michigan

89.1

89.4

89.8

89.5

103

Louisiana-Monroe

89.1

89.8

89.1

89.3

104

Georgia St.

88.7

90.3

87.8

88.9

105

Liberty

88.1

89.6

88.6

88.7

106

Navy

86.9

89.9

86.5

87.8

107

U N L V

86.8

89.3

86.9

87.7

108

Buffalo

87.0

87.8

88.0

87.6

109

Ball St.

87.1

86.7

86.8

86.9

110

Charlotte

86.3

86.9

86.7

86.6

111

Western Kentucky

85.4

86.2

86.9

86.1

112

Kent St.

85.6

85.8

86.0

85.8

113

U A B

84.7

86.6

85.2

85.5

114

East Carolina

84.5

86.6

84.2

85.1

115

San Jose St.

83.9

86.1

83.0

84.3

116

Texas St.

83.8

84.7

83.6

84.0

117

New Mexico

83.1

86.2

82.5

84.0

118

Coastal Carolina

81.3

82.4

80.2

81.3

119

Colorado St.

79.5

83.8

79.7

81.0

120

Bowling Green

80.5

80.5

80.9

80.7

121

Akron

80.6

80.7

80.5

80.6

122

Rice

79.2

80.8

78.7

79.6

123

New Mexico St.

78.0

81.2

77.8

79.0

124

Central Michigan

78.3

79.4

78.4

78.7

125

Texas-San Antonio

77.8

80.6

77.5

78.6

126

South Alabama

76.4

80.0

75.4

77.3

127

Old Dominion

75.0

75.3

75.0

75.1

128

Massachusetts

73.7

76.8

73.3

74.6

129

Connecticut

73.3

77.6

71.8

74.2

130

U T E P

66.3

72.0

66.7

68.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

109.3

108.3

110.4

109.3

0-0

1-0

Cincinnati

107.6

106.0

107.7

107.1

0-0

1-0

Temple

102.4

101.2

103.7

102.4

0-0

1-0

South Florida

90.4

91.5

90.5

90.8

0-0

0-1

East Carolina

84.5

86.6

84.2

85.1

0-0

0-1

Connecticut

73.3

77.6

71.8

74.2

0-0

1-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

104.0

103.5

105.1

104.2

0-0

1-0

SMU

99.5

98.7

99.9

99.4

0-0

1-0

Tulane

98.7

99.3

99.1

99.0

0-0

1-0

Houston

96.0

97.2

98.7

97.3

0-0

0-1

Tulsa

91.2

91.6

92.1

91.6

0-0

0-1

Navy

86.9

89.9

86.5

87.8

0-0

1-0

AAC Averages

95.3

96.0

95.8

95.7

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.0

130.3

135.0

133.1

1-0

1-0

Syracuse

112.0

111.8

112.3

112.0

0-0

1-0

Boston College

104.9

104.6

105.6

105.0

1-0

1-0

Florida St.

104.4

104.8

104.4

104.6

0-0

0-1

North Carolina St.

103.2

103.2

104.0

103.5

0-0

1-0

Wake Forest

103.6

102.9

103.7

103.4

0-0

1-0

Louisville

95.5

94.9

94.3

94.9

0-0

0-1

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

110.0

108.7

111.2

110.0

0-0

0-1

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

1-0

1-0

Virginia Tech

107.7

108.0

108.2

108.0

0-1

0-1

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.6

105.2

105.6

0-1

0-1

Duke

103.5

102.9

103.2

103.2

0-0

0-1

North Carolina

102.0

103.2

103.4

102.9

0-0

1-0

Georgia Tech

99.6

97.6

100.3

99.2

0-1

0-1

ACC Averages

106.8

106.3

107.1

106.7

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

119.9

118.9

119.6

119.5

0-0

1-0

Texas

111.9

111.8

111.5

111.7

0-0

1-0

Baylor

110.4

110.3

109.9

110.2

0-0

1-0

Iowa St.

110.0

110.4

109.9

110.1

0-0

1-0

Oklahoma St.

109.8

110.4

109.3

109.8

0-0

1-0

Texas Tech

108.0

108.1

107.1

107.7

0-0

1-0

Kansas St.

107.7

107.5

107.3

107.5

0-0

1-0

West Virginia

105.9

105.7

105.4

105.6

0-0

1-0

T C U

101.1

104.9

101.5

102.5

0-0

1-0

Kansas

95.0

96.2

94.7

95.3

0-0

1-0

Big 12 Averages

108.0

108.4

107.6

108.0

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

121.6

119.8

121.8

121.1

0-0

1-0

Michigan

121.3

119.3

121.8

120.8

0-0

1-0

Penn St.

117.0

115.9

116.9

116.6

0-0

1-0

Michigan St.

115.9

115.6

116.1

115.9

0-0

1-0

Indiana

108.6

106.8

107.4

107.6

0-0

1-0

Maryland

104.0

103.5

102.8

103.4

0-0

1-0

Rutgers

92.2

92.5

92.0

92.2

0-0

1-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

114.4

113.9

114.1

114.1

0-0

1-0

Iowa

115.0

112.5

114.7

114.0

0-0

1-0

Minnesota

111.0

110.4

109.8

110.4

0-0

1-0

Northwestern

110.7

109.7

109.7

110.0

0-0

0-1

Purdue

108.2

108.1

107.6

108.0

0-0

0-1

Nebraska

105.6

107.3

105.2

106.0

0-0

1-0

Illinois

99.9

100.8

99.3

100.0

0-0

1-0

Big Ten Averages

110.4

109.7

109.9

110.0

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.1

92.6

94.0

93.2

0-0

1-0

Middle Tennessee

91.8

91.0

92.1

91.6

0-0

0-1

Florida Atlantic

91.4

90.6

92.1

91.4

0-0

0-1

Florida Int’l.

91.2

91.0

91.7

91.3

0-0

0-1

Charlotte

86.3

86.9

86.7

86.6

0-0

1-0

Western Kentucky

85.4

86.2

86.9

86.1

0-0

0-1

Old Dominion

75.0

75.3

75.0

75.1

0-0

1-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.7

92.3

95.0

94.0

0-0

1-0

North Texas

93.0

92.3

93.9

93.1

0-0

1-0

Louisiana Tech

90.6

90.2

90.4

90.4

0-0

0-1

U A B

84.7

86.6

85.2

85.5

0-0

1-0

Rice

79.2

80.8

78.7

79.6

0-0

0-1

Texas-San Antonio

77.8

80.6

77.5

78.6

0-0

1-0

U T E P

66.3

72.0

66.7

68.3

0-0

1-0

CUSA Averages

85.7

86.3

86.1

86.1

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.2

118.4

120.2

119.6

x

1-0

BYU

101.4

101.2

101.4

101.3

x

0-1

Army

100.2

100.2

99.8

100.1

x

1-0

Liberty

88.0

89.3

88.3

88.5

x

0-1

New Mexico St.

76.6

79.3

76.2

77.3

x

0-1

Massachusetts

73.4

76.2

72.8

74.1

x

0-1

Indep. Averages

93.3

94.1

93.1

93.5

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.3

95.0

97.8

96.4

0-0

1-0

Miami (Ohio)

90.8

89.1

91.3

90.4

0-0

0-1

Buffalo

87.0

87.8

88.0

87.6

0-0

1-0

Kent St.

85.6

85.8

86.0

85.8

0-0

0-1

Bowling Green

80.5

80.5

80.9

80.7

0-0

1-0

Akron

80.6

80.7

80.5

80.6

0-0

0-1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

100.1

98.7

100.4

99.7

0-0

1-0

Northern Illinois

94.7

93.4

94.8

94.3

0-0

1-0

Toledo

91.2

91.4

92.3

91.6

0-0

0-1

Eastern Michigan

89.1

89.4

89.8

89.5

0-0

1-0

Ball St.

87.1

86.7

86.8

86.9

0-0

0-1

Central Michigan

78.3

79.4

78.4

78.7

0-0

1-0

MAC Averages

88.4

88.2

88.9

88.5

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.5

105.9

107.0

106.5

0-0

1-0

Utah St.

105.4

104.2

106.8

105.4

0-0

0-1

Air Force

97.7

99.0

98.5

98.4

0-0

1-0

Wyoming

96.7

99.1

97.6

97.8

0-0

1-0

New Mexico

83.1

86.2

82.5

84.0

0-0

1-0

Colorado St.

79.5

83.8

79.7

81.0

0-0

0-1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.6

100.2

100.3

100.0

0-0

0-1

Hawaii

97.3

99.3

96.9

97.8

0-0

1-0

Nevada

94.4

96.1

94.2

94.9

0-0

1-0

San Diego St.

94.1

96.1

93.8

94.7

0-0

1-0

U N L V

86.8

89.3

86.9

87.7

0-0

1-0

San Jose St.

83.9

86.1

83.0

84.3

0-0

1-0

MWC Averages

93.8

95.4

93.9

94.4

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

113.1

113.1

114.2

113.5

0-0

0-1

Washington

113.3

112.5

114.4

113.4

0-0

1-0

Washington St.

113.1

112.3

113.5

113.0

0-0

1-0

Stanford

109.3

108.2

109.4

109.0

0-0

1-0

California

107.0

107.0

108.3

107.4

0-0

1-0

Oregon St.

94.6

95.8

93.2

94.5

0-0

0-1

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.8

115.2

117.2

116.4

0-0

1-0

Arizona St.

107.3

106.3

107.7

107.1

0-0

1-0

U C L A

106.0

105.6

105.3

105.7

0-0

0-1

U S C

103.8

105.2

104.3

104.5

0-0

1-0

Arizona

100.8

100.9

101.0

100.9

0-0

0-1

Colorado

99.9

99.4

99.9

99.7

0-0

1-0

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.8

107.4

107.1

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

125.9

123.9

126.3

125.4

1-0

1-0

Florida

120.0

117.1

119.0

118.7

0-0

1-0

Missouri

112.5

109.6

112.4

111.5

0-0

0-1

South Carolina

111.0

109.6

111.0

110.5

0-0

0-1

Kentucky

108.4

107.2

107.2

107.6

0-0

1-0

Tennessee

107.1

106.9

105.5

106.5

0-0

0-1

Vanderbilt

104.3

103.0

103.4

103.6

0-1

0-1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.8

131.5

136.7

134.6

0-0

1-0

L S U

126.1

123.3

125.0

124.8

0-0

1-0

Texas A&M

118.6

117.1

117.2

117.7

0-0

1-0

Auburn

117.2

114.8

116.5

116.2

0-0

1-0

Mississippi St.

116.5

111.8

116.0

114.8

0-0

1-0

Ole Miss

102.0

100.9

100.8

101.2

0-0

0-1

Arkansas

99.0

100.0

98.3

99.1

0-0

1-0

SEC Averages

114.6

112.6

113.9

113.7

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.5

103.4

104.6

104.5

0-0

1-0

Georgia Southern

95.9

95.1

95.1

95.4

0-0

0-1

Troy

94.9

95.5

93.9

94.8

0-0

1-0

Georgia St.

88.7

90.3

87.8

88.9

0-0

1-0

Coastal Carolina

81.3

82.4

80.2

81.3

0-0

0-1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

93.8

93.9

92.9

93.5

0-0

0-1

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

0-0

0-1

Louisiana-Monroe

89.1

89.8

89.1

89.3

0-0

1-0

Texas St.

83.8

84.7

83.6

84.0

0-0

0-1

South Alabama

76.4

80.0

75.4

77.3

0-0

0-1

SBC Averages

90.1

90.7

89.4

90.0

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.7

2

BTen

110.0

3

B12

108.0

4

P12

107.1

5

ACC

106.7

6

AAC

95.7

7

MWC

94.4

8

Ind

93.5

9

SUN

90.0

10

MAC

88.5

11

CUSA

86.1

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Central Florida

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Utah St.

5

Appalachian St.

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conf Conf Team Team
Bahamas MAC CUSA Northern Illinois Marshall
Frisco AAC At-large SMU [Miami (O)]
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati Louisiana-Monroe
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Fresno St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. California
New Orleans CUSA SBC #1 Florida Int’l. Georgia St.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Purdue] Southern Miss.
Hawaii BYU/MWC AAC Hawaii Houston
Independence ACC SEC Wake Forest [UAB]
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Maryland
Military ACC AAC Boston College Temple
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Nebraska
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Mississippi St.
Holiday Pac-12 Big Ten Washington Iowa
Cheez-It Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Stanford
Camping World ACC Big 12 Virginia Baylor
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Central Florida
First Responder CUSA Big 12 North Texas Kansas St.
Redbox Pac-12 Big Ten Arizona St. Minnesota
Music City SEC ACC [Indiana] Miami (Fla.)
Orange ACC BTen/SEC Notre Dame LSU
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. Arkansas
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Vanderbilt
Arizona SBC MWC Troy Utah St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Utah
Citrus SEC BTen/ACC Florida Michigan St.
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane [Army]
Taxslayer/Gator SEC Big Ten Kentucky Wisconsin
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Wyoming
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Northwestern Air Force
Dollar General MAC SBC Eastern Michigan Appalachian St.
 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta Top 4 Top 4 Clemson Ohio St.
Peach Top 4 Top 4 Alabama Oklahoma
 

 

Champsionship Fiesta Peach Clemson Alabama
 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Woe To Us

One week into the season, panic has set in at a number of schools after unexpected losses or even unimpressive wins have sent the fans of certain schools into full-scale panic.

Worst of the lot is the University of Tennessee.  The Volunteers, 25-point favorites, lost at home to Georgia State in a game that Vols were clearly manhandled by the team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Eastern Division in 2019.

Calls have come from within a lot of the fan base for massive changes to be made just 13 games into Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s head coaching career.  There are even calls to rid Athletics Director Phil Fulmer of his duties as well.

Today, in our little old folks reminiscing feature, I will tell you that contrary to the current popular belief, that this loss in Knoxville is not the worst loss in modern day history.

Let’s set the Time Machine back to 1958.  Coach Bowden Wyatt led an archaic Tennessee Single Wing offense that as recently as 1956 had allowed the Big Orange to run the table in the regular season and finish 2nd nationally to champion Oklahoma.

The following year, Tennessee won eight games including the Gator Bowl.  Two of their three losses came to top 5 teams.

In 1958, the Vols stumbled coming out of the gate.  In a 2-4 start that produced little offense and strong defense, Coach Wyatt all of a sudden found himself in hot water.  Tennessee fans, spoiled under the long reign of General Robert Neyland, reacted to this 2-4 start like former New York Yankees manager George Steinbrenner used to react when his team won only 90 games and missed out on the American League Division title.

Game seven was one of those automatic wins against tiny in-state rival Chattanooga.  The Mocs at times in the 20th Century were classified as Major College, or the equivalent of today’s FBS.  However, in 1958, they were Small College, or the equivalent of FCS.

Chattanooga entered this game coming off a loss at Tennessee Tech, and nobody gave Coach Scrappy Moore’s team any hope playing the mighty Vols at Shield-Watkins Field.  When the game started, Chattanooga’s defense, led by future American Football League starter Charlie Long at linebacker (he was also a starting offensive guard and played that position with the Boston Patriots), had little problem stopping Tennessee’s balanced-line Single Wing offense.  Time and time again, Tennessee ran line bucks, off-tackle plays, sweeps, and traps, and the Mocs defense stopped the attack and forced punts.

Chattanooga’s offense was not a juggernaut, but on this day, the Mocs would garner two touchdown drives and led 14-0 with precious little time remaining.  The stadium began to lose its home fans rapidly, as the then 46,000 seat stadium had about 30,000 people in seats.  This was a good thing because of what would happen in a few minutes.

Tennessee mounted one final desperation drive with the forward pass, something Wyatt-coached Vols teams used infrequently.  Chattanooga played a loose defense, allowing the Vols to use up the rest of the clock but finally scoring points in the last few seconds of the game.  The extra point was blocked, and Chattanooga pulled off its greatest ever upset, beating Tennessee in Knoxville 14-6.

The Chattanooga fans, totally excited over their impossible feat, stormed the field and tore down the goalposts.  What happens next has been told to me in the past by older acquaintances that lived in Chattanooga and have passed on to their reward.  Here’s a composite of these stories told to me many years ago:

The Tennessee fans that remained until the end of the game took offense at the Chattanooga fans storming their field and tearing down their goalposts.  When about 100 Vols’ fans decided to let the mob rule, they began to attack the Mocs fans, and within a few seconds, this became a full-scale riot.

In what has been described to me to have resembled the streets of Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the Knoxville police had to bring their riot gear and paddy wagons to the campus.  Eventually, tear gas was lobbed onto the field to stop the violence that had gotten well out of control.  Many Chattanooga fans and a handful of Tennessee fans had been detained and carted off to vehicles to be transferred to jail.

Here’s the most outrageous part of this story.  The sheriff of Hamilton County (Chattanooga as the county seat) was at this game as a fan.  He rounded up a “posse” of Mocs to attempt to overpower the Knoxville police and emancipate the arrested Chattanooga fans.  The sheriff was then arrested by the Knoxville police.

Tennessee had two home games remaining in 1958, and the administration decided they would not purchase new goalposts.  Instead, they erected very cheap wooden goalposts, the type anybody could construct by going to Home Depot, Lowe’s, or Menard’s today.

Coach Wyatt was barbecued in the local newspapers.  The Knoxville Journal and the Knoxville News-Sentinel opposed each other in 1958 like Fox News and CNN oppose each other today.  Yet, the two papers were in agreement that something needed to be done.  At 2-5, Tennessee now faced a closing three games against a top-5 Ole Miss team that had lost only to eventual national champion LSU; a decent Kentucky team under future Cleveland Browns head coach Blanton Collier; and a Vanderbilt team that would lose only one game prior to the season-ending contest with the Vols.

Staring a potential 2-8 season in the face, there was no joy in “The Marble City.”  Tennessee football was to Knoxville on Saturdays what it is to Green Bay on Sundays.

With the makeshift goalposts, Tennessee entered their game with Ole Miss as double-digit underdogs at home.  Having done exhaustive research, this was a first at Shields-Watkins Field.  Rarely had the Vols been underdogs at home under Neyland, so being a double-digit underdog to the Rebels was a new low.

As unexpected as their loss was to Chattanooga the previous week, the Vols went the opposite way against Coach Johnny Vaught’s Rebels.  Ole Miss had just scored 56 points the previous week against Houston, and their defense was giving up less than six points per game.  Even LSU could muster only 14 points, so the Vols’ Single Wing offense looked to be in a huge bind, and it was conceivable that Tennessee would be lucky to even cross midfield.

Not only did Tennessee move the ball across midfield, they moved it up and down the field for most of the day, while their defense slowed a great Split-T attack and Ole Miss’s top back, Charlie Flowers, had trouble moving the ball for most of the day.  An 18-16 upset was as big as the upset loss to Chattanooga.

Ironically, the Vols’ fans stormed the field after this game and quickly made short work of the cheap, makeshift goalposts.  Tennessee had to erect another set of wooden goalposts for its final home game.  Also ironically, goalposts would not be needed in that final home game, as neither Tennessee nor Kentucky attempted an extra point that day.  The Vol offense returned to its inept depths and failed to produce points.  A safety by the defense prevented the goose egg from staying on the old scoreboard.  Kentucky scored a lone touchdown and missed a two-point conversion but won 6-2.  This guaranteed a losing season for the Vols.

The season ended with Tennessee visiting their in-state rival Vanderbilt in Nashville.  This Vanderbilt team was ranked number 15 and looking at a likely Sun, Gator, or Bluegrass Bowl bid with a win over the lowly Vols.  Vanderbilt entered this game without an SEC loss and only one overall, which came against a Clemson team that won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship and would face LSU in the Sugar Bowl.

After Coach Neyland came to Knoxville, Vanderbilt was rarely favored to beat their nemesis down the road on US Highway 70.  On this late November day, the Commodores were expected to win easily and give some of their second team players extra experience.

Once again, the Vols came out fired up and stopped Vanderbilt’s version of the Split-T and Wing-T offense.  The UT Single Wing offense was not potent by any means, but they moved the ball.  In 1958, few teams made more than two or three field goals in an entire season, and many did not make even one.  On this day, a field goal gave the Vols a surprising early lead, and Tennessee led 10-6 in the fourth quarter.  Two long Vanderbilt drives ended with turnovers, a fumble on the first and an interception on the second.  The Vol player (cannot remember his name) that recovered the fumble also picked off the pass, and Tennessee shocked Vandy at Dudley Field.  As a result, the Commodores were passed over for the bowl bids.  The Sun Bowl took Hardin-Simmons; the Bluegrass Bowl in Louisville took Florida State; and the Gator Bowl chose Florida and Ole Miss.

To all the Vols fans, as well as those that cheer for Tennessee to lose, let this be a warning to you.  The same can be said to Florida State, South Carolina, Missouri, UCLA, and Arizona fans this week.  Your team failed miserably in game one, but you never know what might happen in game two.  This going to the extremes, believing your team might be Playoff bound if they win their first game, and believing that the sky is falling if they lose their first game, is a ridiculous emotion.  It’s just the first game.  Teams have stunk in their first game and proceeded to win the national championship.  Not that this will happen in 2019, but the Seminoles, Gamecocks, Tigers, Bruins, Wildcats, and Vols fans still have reason to believe that this current low point will be replaced with multiple reversals of misfortune.

Week Two–Some Marquee Games

This will be a Saturday to make plans to watch a lot of football if you are a big college fan.

Noon, EDT

Michigan vs. Army–Fox Sports

This is the best early game.  The Wolverines had some trouble against Middle Tennessee in week one, while Army struggled with Rice.  This game may be lower scoring than first expected, but both teams did not show their entire playbooks last week.  I expect more offense and will look at the totals numbers for this game.  If Army can pull off the upset, the Black Knights can easily run the table for the regular season and possibly earn a spot in the Cotton Bowl.  Army is not eligible for the guaranteed Group of 5 New Year’s Bowl bid, as this goes to the highest-rated Group of 5 Conference Champion.  However, if the men from West Point beat Michigan and proceed to go 13-0 in the regular season, they could still be selected as an at-large team for the Cotton Bowl.

Of course, Michigan is a tough team to beat at The Big House, and Army does not wear scarlet and gray uniforms.

Purdue vs. Vanderbilt–Big Ten Network

This looks like a bowl eliminator game, even in week 2.  Purdue watched a 17-point lead disappear in Reno against Nevada.  Vanderbilt suffered against national contender Georgia and has injuries on its already thin offensive line.  The team that emerges 1-1 will still hold bowl hopes for 2019.  The loser has little path to six wins.

3:30 PM EDT

Clemson vs. Texas A&M–ABC

The Aggies gave the Tigers one of their two toughest battles last year in College Station, and Coach Jimbo Fisher certainly knows how to prepare for a game against his former rival when he coached at Florida State.  Having to go to Deaf Valley to place Trevor the Great may be asking the Aggies to do the impossible, but Clemson didn’t look like a super team against Georgia Tech last week, and Lawrence actually completed two passes to the wrong colored jersey.  This game might be quite interesting if the Aggies can contain the CU running game and make Clemson one dimensional.

7:30 PM EDT

Texas vs. LSU–ABC

This may be the overall best game of the week.  Texas looked just as strong if not stronger beating Louisiana Tech in week one as they looked like last year when they beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.  LSU looked like a team that Alabama fans need to worry about, as the new Tiger offense did things through the air that it had not done before, even in the Bert Jones days.  Joe Burrow added his name to Heisman Trophy contention after week one.  The winner of this game stays in Playoff contention.  The loser is already looking at top tier bowl but no Playoffs.

8:00 PM EDT

North Carolina vs. Miami–ACC Network

Kudos to Coach Mack Brown for showing the nation that old guys can still teach new tricks to the youngsters.  North Carolina can now become a co-favorite for the Coastal Division flag with a win over Miami in week two.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had an extra week to lick their wounds after falling to rival Florida in a game that Miami had a chance to win at the end.

10:30 PM EDT

Washington vs. California–FS1

After Oregon lost in the final nine seconds to Auburn, the Pac-12 was placed behind the 8-ball.  It is going to take a 12-0 team from the Pac-12 to make the Playoffs, so this game will see one team emerge as having accomplished what is mandatory for that to happen.  Washington quarterback Jacob Eason looked like a potential first team All Pac-12 player in game one, but then Eastern Washington’s defense is not the standard to judge excellence.

Cal had to come from behind to beat FCS rival UC Davis.  Having to go to Seattle for this game makes the Bears a solid underdog, but Coach Justin Wilcox is impressing us with his handling of the boys from Berkeley.  Expect this game to be closer than expected and most likely quite exciting.  Cal stopped the Huskies last year in a 12-10 win.

Stanford vs. USC–ESPN

When USC quarterback J.T. Daniels went down with a season-ending injury in the middle of the Fresno State game, you could just see Coach Clay Helton’s subconscious brain imagining the help-wanted ads in the Los Angeles Times.  With an incredibly difficult schedule and a mandate to win 8 or 9 games this year, how does Helton survive the season much less get through it to the end with a true freshman signal caller?

Helton and the Trojans may have a shot against the Cardinal, because Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello might not play after suffering a gruesome hit in what should have been called a targeting penalty against Northwestern.  Costello might be in the concussion protocol and unable to play in this game, and backup Davis Mills did not produce any points after entering the game for the second half.

The winner of this game will be an unconvincing 2-0 team, but the loser will be in dire straits at 1-1.  USC faces four consecutive games where they will be the underdog, while Stanford decided to play Central Florida and Notre Dame as two of its three non-conference games.  The Cardinal may not have five more wins on their schedule if they lose this game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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August 22, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For August 24, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:35 am

Welcome to the debut of the 2019 PiRate Ratings Picks.  During the football season, we will issue our pretend financial advice for you to read as entertainment purposes only and not to wager real money on games.

We pretend to make $100 wagers on whatever it is we select.  In the past, we have done this with money line parlays, teasers, straight wagers, and regular spread parlays.  Through the years, we have discovered our most successful style of wagering has been playing money line parlays.  At one time, we were successful teasing the totals lines.  13-point, 4-game parlays of teaser totals gave us an incredible hot streak one season when the standard deviation of scores was much lower than normal.

In this decade, there has been higher standard deviation in NFL scores, because the new rule moving extra points back 15 yards has created instability in game scores.

Many years ago, we had a rather impressive result playing the middle in games, but that was when we had permission to release the “outlaw” line before the official opening line.  Without the ability to see the Outlaw line and then the opening line, it was impossible to try to guess which games would see a large enough swing to go with both sides.

Since there are only two games this week, both college games, there is no real play that can be issued with our strategy.  If you take both favorites this week, Florida over Miami and Arizona over Hawaii, the best money line parlay odds you can get today is .6941, which means you would win $169.41 if you bet $100 and the two favorites won.  That means you would get your $100 investment back with $69.41 in profits.  Our philosophy is to only play parlays with odds of +120 or better, meaning you would receive $220  or more on a $100 wager.

In order to play a parlay with better than +120 odds this week, we would have to pick Hawaii or Miami to win outright.  If we selected Florida to beat Miami and Hawaii to upset Arizona, the parlay odds would be around +500 at this very moment.  That means, we would win $600 on a $100 wager if Florida and Hawaii won.

Alas, we are only confident this week of one outcome, that Florida will indeed beat Miami.  The actual point spread is right where we believe it should be, so playing the line is out of the question.

The best Money Line spread available to us at midday Thursday is -290, which means if we wager $100 on this game, if Florida won, we’d get a tiny $34.48 profit.  The reward is too small for the risk.

The totals for these two games do not give us a chance to come up with a playable parlay either, so for Week 0, we are not issuing any official picks.  We prefer to pick our spots and play only games that we are confident in occasionally winning.  If we play Money Line parlays with odds of +120 or better, we can win a smaller percentage of games and still turn a profit.

Let’s say we play 50 games this year with an average parlay odd of +180  Let’s say we get lucky and win 20.  Here’s how that would affect our imaginary bank account.

50 wagers of $100 each = $5,000 investment

20 Wins at +180 = $3,600 in winnings

30 Losses at +180 = $3,000 in losses

$600 profit at the end of the 50 wagers

12% Return on Investment

This 12% would take place in roughly 4 months, so the annualized Return on Investment would be 36%.  Not many investments return 36% in one year.

Ah, but here’s the rub: how likely is it that we can win 40% of our Money Line wagers at +180 odds?  The answer at the present time is one year in four, or to re-phrase it, four years ago.  The only solace is that the most recent three years brought imaginary profits as well, just nothing close to an annualized return of 36%.  Our 2018 season profit was so small it is not worth mentioning.  It was better in 2017 and much better in 2016, so the four year trend has been going in the wrong direction.

Ah, but here’s the other rub: We invested imaginary funds in all the years we have issued our selections.  Being 100% accurate and being 0% accurate brings the same outcome on zero real dollars invested.

Last year, we welcomed five of our long time friends to participate in a contest selecting winners against the spread.  It was a close contest all year, and as a group the five turned a small profit.  This year, we are going to have a guest computer program try to pick winners.  We decided to call this program “Davey 19.”  Davey is named for a former quarterback at TCU and for a short time with the Philadelphia Eagles.  Davey was only 5 foot 7 inches tall, but he had the heart of a giant and the fundamentals of a robot, so that’s why we are calling our guest computer program Davey 19 this year.

We will give Davey an identical rule–to make investments in imaginary $100 wagers.  Davey can make any type of selection in college and the NFL.  Davey does have one selection this week.

 

PiRate Picks For August 24, 2019

None   (not enough games for a playable parlay)

 

Davey 19 Selection For August 24, 2019

Hawaii +11 vs. Arizona

 

We do feel like Florida has a better than 60% chance to beat Miami, but the Money Line odd is too low to make enough profit to limit risk.

August 19, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:01 pm

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday August 24
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Florida (n) Miami (Fla.) 11.0 9.5 8.9
Hawaii Arizona -2.2 -0.3 -3.4
 

 

Thursday August 29
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Cincinnati UCLA 2.6 1.1 3.7
Tulane Florida Int’l. 4.4 5.4 3.7
Clemson Georgia Tech 36.7 34.0 36.7
Texas A&M Texas St. 36.5 33.7 34.9
Arizona St. Kent St. 26.4 24.6 26.8
BYU Utah -13.5 -11.5 -13.5
 

 

Friday August 30
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Army Rice 28.2 26.4 28.7
South Florida Wisconsin -12.1 -10.1 -10.9
Michigan St. Tulsa 27.1 26.4 26.2
Rutgers Massachusetts 21.2 18.1 21.2
Wake Forest Utah St. 1.3 2.0 0.0
Nevada Purdue -15.2 -13.4 -15.2
Colorado (n) Colorado St. 20.5 14.8 20.6
Oregon St. Oklahoma St. -11.9 -10.8 -12.3
 

 

Saturday August 31
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. East Carolina 18.9 16.1 19.5
Illinois Akron 16.5 17.3 15.4
Indiana (n) Ball St. 23.8 22.4 23.3
Nebraska South Alabama 35.9 33.8 36.8
Ohio St. Florida Atlantic 32.2 31.1 31.7
Kentucky Toledo 21.3 19.7 19.0
Memphis Ole Miss 3.1 3.7 5.6
Louisiana (n) Mississippi St. -25.0 -19.6 -25.8
North Carolina (n) South Carolina -14.3 -11.3 -12.7
Tennessee Georgia St. 30.8 29.0 30.3
Alabama (n) Duke 31.3 26.7 32.2
Coastal Carolina Eastern Michigan -5.2 -4.1 -7.1
Stanford Northwestern 0.3 0.1 1.5
Boston College Virginia Tech -1.5 -2.6 -1.6
Liberty Syracuse -21.3 -19.4 -21.0
Arkansas St. SMU -5.4 -4.3 -5.8
Florida St. (n) Boise St. 2.0 3.6 1.9
Vanderbilt Georgia -18.7 -17.8 -20.0
Auburn (n) Oregon 3.8 0.9 1.5
LSU Georgia Southern 28.0 25.3 27.3
Wyoming Missouri -18.5 -12.7 -17.7
Iowa Miami (O) 27.4 26.6 26.8
Michigan Middle Tennessee 35.2 33.8 35.8
Pittsburgh Virginia 3.4 2.4 2.7
Texas Louisiana Tech 23.4 23.5 22.5
Washington St. New Mexico St. 37.0 32.5 37.4
USC Fresno St. 7.2 8.0 6.8
 

 

Sunday/Monday September 1/2
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Oklahoma Houston 28.2 25.7 24.9
Louisville Notre Dame -23.8 -22.4 -25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home Visitor PiRate
San Jose St. Northern Colorado 14.5
Connecticut Wagner 12.6
Central Michigan Albany 9.8
Bowling Green Morgan St. 17.2
Buffalo Robert Morris 43.9
Charlotte Gardner-Webb 26.5
Western Kentucky Central Arkansas 11.9
Central Florida Florida A&M 45.5
UAB Alabama St. 45.5
Minnesota South Dakota St. 12.7
UNLV Southern Utah 17.3
Air Force Colgate 11.3
New Mexico Sam Houston St. 9.7
Maryland Howard 36.0
Iowa St. Northern Iowa 22.2
Kansas Indiana St. 13.8
West Virginia James Madison 18.5
Ohio U Rhode Island 27.6
Washington E. Washington 18.0
Temple Bucknell 44.2
Navy Holy Cross 24.4
Penn St. Idaho 40.5
Appalachian St. East Tennessee 36.3
Arkansas Portland St. 21.0
Texas Tech Montana St. 25.7
UTSA Incarnate Word 7.3
Troy Campbell 33.8
California UC-Davis 14.5
Marshall VMI 37.8
Old Dominion Norfolk St. 23.5
Southern Miss Alcorn St. 23.6
Kansas St. Nicholls 23.9
Baylor Stephen F Austin 37.3
Northern Illinois Illinois St. 7.3
Western Michigan Monmouth 20.5
North Texas Abilene Christian 19.4
UTEP Houston Baptist 15.2
TCU Ark. Pine Bluff 52.3
Louisiana-Monroe Grambling 24.3
San Diego St. Weber St. 8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0
2 Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7
3 Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1
4 Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4
5 L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0
6 Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6
7 Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5
8 Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0
9 Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4
10 Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2
11 Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0
12 Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8
13 Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7
14 Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5
15 Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6
16 Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5
17 Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2
18 Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8
19 South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2
20 Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8
21 Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9
22 Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8
23 Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6
24 Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2
25 Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2
26 Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1
27 Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7
28 Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2
29 Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1
30 Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6
31 Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5
32 Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2
33 Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9
34 Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7
35 Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3
36 Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1
37 Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0
38 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7
39 Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7
40 Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7
41 California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4
42 Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3
43 Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2
44 U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8
45 Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8
46 Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3
47 West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1
48 Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6
49 Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5
50 Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0
51 U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4
52 Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4
53 Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1
54 Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0
55 Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9
56 Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8
57 Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2
58 T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2
59 Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7
60 North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6
61 Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2
62 Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1
63 Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7
64 BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7
65 Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4
66 North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5
67 Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1
68 Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9
69 Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7
70 Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6
71 Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2
72 SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1
73 Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2
74 Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4
75 Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2
76 Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7
77 Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6
78 Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2
79 Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1
80 Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6
81 South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2
82 Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1
83 Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9
84 San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8
85 Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8
86 Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2
87 Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1
88 Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9
89 Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9
90 Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2
91 North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1
92 Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6
93 Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3
94 Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0
95 Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9
96 Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8
97 Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5
98 Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0
99 Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9
100 Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5
101 Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3
102 Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4
103 Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4
104 Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8
105 Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7
106 Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6
107 U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0
108 U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3
109 Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1
110 Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7
111 East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0
112 Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5
113 Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2
114 San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2
115 Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2
116 Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2
117 New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1
118 Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4
119 Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4
120 Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0
121 New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0
122 Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7
123 Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5
124 Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0
125 Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5
126 Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8
127 South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2
128 Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6
129 Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5
130 U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1 0-0 0-0
Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3 0-0 0-0
Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2 0-0 0-0
South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2 0-0 0-0
East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0 0-0 0-0
Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0 0-0 0-0
SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1 0-0 0-0
Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7 0-0 0-0
Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2 0-0 0-0
Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0 0-0 0-0
Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1 0-0 0-0
 

 

AAC Averages 95.2 95.9 95.8 95.6
 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7 0-0 0-0
Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8 0-0 0-0
Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5 0-0 0-0
Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1 0-0 0-0
Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2 0-0 0-0
North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6 0-0 0-0
Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6 0-0 0-0
Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9 0-0 0-0
Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7 0-0 0-0
Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3 0-0 0-0
Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9 0-0 0-0
North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5 0-0 0-0
Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

ACC Averages 106.6 106.1 106.9 106.5
 

 

Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0 0-0 0-0
Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9 0-0 0-0
Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1 0-0 0-0
Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1 0-0 0-0
Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5 0-0 0-0
Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8 0-0 0-0
West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1 0-0 0-0
T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big 12 Averages 108.2 108.6 107.7 108.2
 

 

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4 0-0 0-0
Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6 0-0 0-0
Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5 0-0 0-0
Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6 0-0 0-0
Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7 0-0 0-0
Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7 0-0 0-0
Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2 0-0 0-0
Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2 0-0 0-0
Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7 0-0 0-0
Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2 0-0 0-0
Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2 0-0 0-0
Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7 0-0 0-0
Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big Ten Averages 110.1 109.4 109.6 109.7
 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2 0-0 0-0
Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2 0-0 0-0
Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9 0-0 0-0
Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5 0-0 0-0
Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6 0-0 0-0
Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7 0-0 0-0
Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9 0-0 0-0
North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1 0-0 0-0
Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0 0-0 0-0
U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0 0-0 0-0
Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0 0-0 0-0
Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5 0-0 0-0
U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

CUSA Averages 86.2 86.8 86.6 86.5
 

 

FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5 x 0-0
Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7 x 0-0
BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7 x 0-0
Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7 x 0-0
New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0 x 0-0
Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6 x 0-0
 

 

Indep. Averages 94.2 95.2 94.3 94.5
 

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6 0-0 0-0
Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3 0-0 0-0
Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8 0-0 0-0
Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2 0-0 0-0
Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2 0-0 0-0
Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1 0-0 0-0
Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9 0-0 0-0
Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4 0-0 0-0
Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5 0-0 0-0
Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

MAC Averages 88.3 88.1 88.8 88.4
 

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6 0-0 0-0
Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0 0-0 0-0
Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4 0-0 0-0
Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1 0-0 0-0
New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1 0-0 0-0
Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1 0-0 0-0
San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6 0-0 0-0
U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3 0-0 0-0
San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

MWC Averages 93.0 94.7 93.1 93.6
 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8 0-0 0-0
Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8 0-0 0-0
Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6 0-0 0-0
Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3 0-0 0-0
California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4 0-0 0-0
Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0 0-0 0-0
Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7 0-0 0-0
U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8 0-0 0-0
U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4 0-0 0-0
Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.5 107.1
 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1 0-0 0-0
Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4 0-0 0-0
Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5 0-0 0-0
South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2 0-0 0-0
Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2 0-0 0-0
Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0 0-0 0-0
Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0 0-0 0-0
L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0 0-0 0-0
Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2 0-0 0-0
Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8 0-0 0-0
Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7 0-0 0-0
Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4 0-0 0-0
Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.3 113.2 114.6 114.4
 

 

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4 0-0 0-0
Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2 0-0 0-0
Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2 0-0 0-0
Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3 0-0 0-0
Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5 0-0 0-0
Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4 0-0 0-0
Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2 0-0 0-0
South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

SBC Averages 89.5 90.2 88.8 89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings

 

# League Average
1 SEC 114.4
2 BTen 109.7
3 B12 108.2
4 P12 107.1
5 ACC 106.5
6 AAC 95.6
7 Ind 94.5
8 MWC 93.6
9 SUN 89.5
10 MAC 88.4
11 CUSA 86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Cincinnati
3 Utah St.
4 Boise St.
5 Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conf Conf Team Team
Bahamas MAC CUSA Western Michigan Southern Miss.
Frisco AAC At-large Houston Florida Int’l.
Cure AAC SBC Temple Georgia Southern
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech San Diego St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Central Florida Ohio
Camellia MAC SBC Eastern Michigan Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Utah St. UCLA
New Orleans CUSA SBC #1 UAB Appalachian St.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Hawaii BYU/MWC AAC BYU Memphis
Independence ACC SEC Florida St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Northwestern
Military ACC AAC Pittsburgh South Florida
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Minnesota
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Mississippi St.
Holiday Pac-12 Big Ten Washington St. Iowa
Cheez-It Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Hawaii
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) Iowa St.
Cotton At-large At-large Army Washington
First Responder CUSA Big 12 Marshall TCU
Redbox Pac-12 Big Ten Stanford Wisconsin
Music City SEC ACC Indiana Wake Forest
Orange ACC BTen/SEC Notre Dame Florida
Belk ACC SEC Syracuse Tennessee
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Tech Arizona St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Arizona SBC MWC Troy Fresno St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor Oregon
Citrus SEC BTen/ACC Texas A&M Nebraska
Outback Big Ten SEC Auburn Penn St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Utah
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC SMU North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator SEC Big Ten South Carolina Michigan St.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Air Force
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Purdue Boise St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta Top 4 Top 4 Clemson Georgia
Peach Top 4 Top 4 Alabama Michigan
Champsionship Fiesta Peach Clemson Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

August 18, 2019

2019 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

Current Penn State and former Vanderbilt football coach James Franklin once said, “The three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, AFC, and SEC.”  Even though Clemson has taken Alabama to the woodshed twice in three years, the SEC is still the class of college football.  Clemson has no rival in the ACC like Alabama has in the SEC.  There are no Georgia, LSU, Florida, or Texas A&M types in the ACC.  Clemson played Texas A&M last year; it was a close game, and the Aggies had a chance to win it.  They go to Clemson early this season, and it is probably the only game Clemson will have to worry about until the Playoffs.

In the East Division, Georgia is the only team that has won the SEC Championship in the last 10 seasons.  The Bulldogs won the 2017 title, and they led Alabama in the National Championship Game until Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench and became the best quarterback to wear the Crimson since Ken Stabler and Joe Namath.  Georgia lost to LSU last season and then led Alabama into the second half in the Championship Game, before Tua rallied the Tide again.  Can the third year be the charm?  Coach Kirby Smart has star quarterback Jake Fromm and talented running back D’Andre Swift back behind a tough offensive line.  The receiving corps is thin on experience but has some talent, and with Fromm throwing the ball, the passing game will top 200 yards a game.

The Bulldog defense had a little trouble stopping some enemy quarterbacks last year, but the secondary will be improved in 2019.  The Bulldog defense should yield 17 or less points per game, and Georgia has a chance to go 12-0 and get that third chance in a row to stop the Tide.

Florida won 10 games in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach in the Swamp.  The Gators should be Georgia’s principle competitor this year, but Mullen has some rebuilding to do on the attack side.  Feleipe Franks is a near star at quarterback.  If he stays healthy, Franks should pass for 3,000 yards this year, as Florida has a receiving corps that rivals Alabama’s in the league.  A defense that returns a lot up front and in back could give the Gators a chance in Jacksonville against the Bulldogs.

Unless an appeal is successful, Missouri will be on probation this year and not eligible for the SEC Championship Game, the Playoffs, or a bowl.  The Tigers might be the dark horse in the division, and if eligibility is restored, this team might be good enough to sneak into the division title picture, probably in a three-way tie.  Former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant replaces Drew Lock at quarterback, and the Missouri offense will be a little different, using Bryant’s ability to run.  The Tigers have an excellent receiving corps, led by a potential Mackie Award-winning tight end Albert Okwuegbunam.  The Missouri defense is not up to the standards of Florida and Georgia, but Coach Barry Odom has been gifted with a plum of a schedule this year.  The Tigers have a chance to go to Georgia on November 9 with an 8-0 record.

South Carolina and Tennessee are teams in transition.  The Gamecocks are trying to stay relevant against a tough schedule, while Tennessee is trying to return to relevance after several years under .500 in the SEC.  The Gamecocks are looking at a mild rebuilding year with a young, inexperienced defense that gave up more than 27 points last year.  Having to compete with Florida and Georgia is tough, but USC has three tough non-conference opponents, in rival Clemson plus North Carolina and Appalachian St.

Tennessee returns the most starters of any team in a power 5 conference, and the Vols have a rather strong group of redshirt freshmen available for second year coach Jeremy Pruitt.  Pruitt is a master defensive specialist, and the Volunteers will improve on their 2018 numbers of 28 points and 377 yards per game allowed.  The Big Orange offense was inconsistent last year, and it won’t be championship quality this year.  With Jim Chaney brought on board as offensive coordinator, Tennessee should be a little more consistent in 2019, and the Vols should improve to the plus side of .500 and make a bowl game.

Kentucky had its best season since 1977 in 2018, but the Wildcats face a major rebuilding year under Coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats lost All-American Josh Allen off the defense, and even if they returned the rest of that unit, it would mean the defense would be weaker.  Unfortunately, UK lost six other starters from this side of the ball, and it was defense that allowed UK to win 10 games last year.  The offense also lost seven starters, including star running back Benny Snell.  Terry Wilson is a serviceable quarterback, but he’s not going to shred defensive backfields like Fromm or Franks in the East.

Vanderbilt is the perennial choice for last place in the East Division, but Coach Derek Mason has been able to produce bowl eligibility twice in three years, even having to play a tough non-conference foe in those years.  The Commodores lost star quarterback Kyle Shurmur, but they bring in former Ball State starter Riley Neal, and Neal has the talent to equal or even top the production given by Shurmur.  With running back Keyshawn Vaughn returning after leading the SEC in rushing, and with a receiving corps that is deep and talented, the Commodores could average more than 400 total yards and 30 points per game this year.  Unfortunately, the defense may give up even more, and that is why Vandy might not be as dandy in 2019.  The losses of secondary stars Joejuan Williams and Ladarius Wiley will be tough on an inexperienced pass defense.

In the West, Alabama is the odds-on favorite to go 12-0, win the SEC Championship Game, and then win the semifinal game in the Playoffs, where a rematch with Clemson will excite college football fans from coast to coast.  In the Nick Saban years in Tuscaloosa, the Tide has had numerous stars drafted into the NFL, and it looked Saban had a little rebuilding to do.  At Alabama, one future star replaces a former star.  There is no such thing as rebuilding when you perpetually have the number one recruiting class in college football.  With Tagovailoa returning at quarterback, and with the best receiving corps outside of the NFL, Alabama should have no trouble topping 40 or even 45 points and 300-350 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide has the SEC’s best defense yet again, but they could be a tad vulnerable against some tough running backs and top of the line quarterbacks (like Fromm).  It will not be a cakewalk for the Crimson Tide this year.  One team is liable to upset them along the way, but whether that team can also finish 7-1 in the league and win the crown is highly unlikely.

LSU appears to have the best chance of dethroning the King.  The Tigers won 10 games last year but did not compete with Alabama, losing at home 29-0.  Coach Ed Orgeron has done a fine job recruiting talent to Baton Rouge, and in quarterback Joe Burrow, he has a potentially great passer, something that has prevented the Tigers from beating Alabama in recent years.  Defensively, the Tigers have the best defense not wearing crimson, and the LSU secondary might be the best in the nation.  It will give the Tigers a chance to stop Tua and the Tide.  An early game against Texas in Austin should give the nation a great look to see if LSU has what it takes to knock off the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium in November.

Texas A&M faces an impossible schedule.  They play Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia, which is just plain brutal.  Second year coach Jimbo Fisher has worked wonders in his short time in College Station, but the A&M defense is going to be battered and bruised by these top notch offenses.  The Aggies could average more than 40 points per game in the other eight contests, and it would not be a surprise to see them upset one of those four powers.  At the same time, Auburn, Mississippi State, and South Carolina might sneak up and upset the Aggies.  8-4 is about the best that can be expected under these circumstances.

Auburn also has an impossible schedule this year, as in addition to Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M in the West, the Tigers have their annual game against Georgia, and then they must commence play against a tough Oregon team in a neutral site game.  With the loss of Jarrett Stidham and his top two targets, the offense may take a step backwards.  The defense should be quite strong, but in the SEC West, the Tigers could lose a lot of 21-17 games.  Coach Gus Malzahn is in a bit of a pickle on the Plains, and if War Eagles don’t win nine times this year, Gus may be on the bus out of town.

Mississippi State might be strong enough to compete for a division title in the Pac-12 or Big 12, but in the SEC West, they are probably not even in the top four.  In a league with incredibly talented defenses, the Bulldogs had the best of all in 2018, holding nine teams under 14 points.  Still, it led to only an 8-5 season, and the Maroons have issues on the offensive side of the ball this year, especially the all-important passing game.  Only a strong chance of going 4-0 outside the league will guarantee the Bulldogs bowl eligibility.

Arkansas might be the true sleeper of the league this year.  Second year coach Chad Morris had a major transition when he came to Fayetteville and switched the Razorbacks from a smash mouth offense to a more finesse spread offense.  He didn’t have the personnel to make the offense shine.  He will have a lot more of the necessary pieces this season, and he has a quarterback that can make the offense go.  Ben Hicks was Morris’s quarterback at SMU, when the Mustangs passed for close to 300 yards and scored 38 points per game in 2017.  He won’t replicate those numbers in the SEC, but Arkansas should top 28 points per game and challenge for a 6-6 record and bowl eligibility.

Ole Miss comes off probation this year, and the Rebels can become eligible for a bowl once again.  Unfortunately, the Rebels face a major rebuilding and transitioning with new offensive and defensive coordinators.  The offense welcomes Rich Rodriguez, and his read-option spread to the SEC.  The West Division foes have many years experience facing a nearly identical offense at Auburn, so it will not be something new and surprising.  The Rebels will not be as talented or competent at Auburn running this offense, so Ole Miss should see a considerable dip in production on this side of the ball.  Of course, losing quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and three star receivers would hurt no matter what offense was being run.  Defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre has a lot more experience to work with on his side of the ball, but the Rebels lack the talent to compete against the rest of the West.  It could be a long year in Oxford.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Southeastern Conference Media Poll
 

 

East Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall
1 Georgia 233 1789
2 Florida 21 1499
3 Missouri 3 1149
4 S. Carolina 1 883
5 Tennessee 1 804
6 Kentucky 1 798
7 Vanderbilt 0 358
 

 

West Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall
1 Alabama 253 1813
2 LSU 5 1493
3 Texas A&M 0 1268
4 Auburn 1 1090
5 Mississippi St. 1 769
6 Ole Miss 0 504
7 Arkansas 0 343
 

 

Championship Game Winner Overall Votes
Alabama 203
Georgia 49
LSU 3
Mississippi St. 1
Tennessee 1
Florida 1
South Carolina 1
Auburn 1

 

The PiRate Ratings show just how strong the league begins the 2019 season.  Ten teams begin 2019 at least 10 points better than the average FBS school.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–SEC

 

East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 126.2 123.6 126.6 125.5
Florida 120.5 117.8 119.5 119.2
Missouri 115.3 112.4 115.3 114.3
S. Carolina 114.0 112.2 113.9 113.4
Tennessee 112.6 111.6 111.1 111.8
Kentucky 109.5 107.5 108.3 108.4
Vanderbilt 104.3 103.3 103.4 103.7
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 135.6 130.6 136.4 134.2
L S U 123.3 120.4 122.0 121.9
Texas A&M 118.6 116.6 117.0 117.4
Auburn 116.8 114.4 115.9 115.7
Mississippi St. 117.0 112.5 116.7 115.4
Ole Miss 102.0 101.1 100.7 101.3
Arkansas 100.0 100.5 99.3 100.0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.4 113.2 114.7 114.4

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss

 

East Division

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Georgia 8-0 12-1
2 Florida 6-2 10-2
3 Missouri 5-3 9-3
4 Tennessee 3-5 7-5
5 South Carolina 3-5 6-6
6 Kentucky 2-6 6-6
7 Vanderbilt 2-6 5-7
 

 

West Division

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Alabama 8-0 13-0*
2 LSU 6-2 10-2
3 Texas A&M 5-3 8-4
4 Auburn 4-4 8-4
5 Mississippi St. 3-5 7-5
6 Ole Miss 2-6 5-7
7 Arkansas 1-7 5-7
 

*

 

Alabama picked to win SEC Championship Game

 

Coaches That Could Be In Line To Get A Top 10 Job

Most of the coaches are already at a program that either is a top 10 job or has the potential to be.  However, there is one coach that could advance to a bigger program

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

 

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Will Muschamp, South Carolina

 

Malzahn’s seat is considerably hotter than Muschamp’s seat.  If Auburn does not find a way to finish in the top three in the SEC West, there will most likely be a change on the Plains.

 

Top Quarterbacks

We have been showcasing three and sometimes four quarterbacks in the other conferences, but there is NFL Draft potential deep into the ranking of SEC quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Feleipe Franks, Florida

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Kelly Bryant, Missouri

Jake Bentley, South Carolina

Joe Burrow, LSU

Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee

 

Best Offense

Alabama

Georgia

Missouri

 

Best Defense

Alabama

LSU

Florida

 

Coming Tomorrow:  It’s finally here!  This is week 0 of the NCAA Football season.  There are two games Saturday, and that means we will debut the full regular season ratings.  Look for our first weekly report tomorrow.

Here’s how we expect to release our information this year.

Mondays: Updated College Football Ratings and Spreads for the week’s FBS games

Tuesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the week’s games

Thursdays: Our PiRate Rating picks for the week’s college and NFL games

Very Important Reminder: The members of the PiRate Ratings do not wager on football games.  We issue our selections just for entertainment purposes only and remind you that they are presented free of charge.  You get what you paid for, so don’t go wagering your mortgage payment on our advice.

That said, the PiRate Picks have returned narrow overall profits for four consecutive seasons.  Our claim to fame is finding Money Line Parlays that return better than even money odds.  Thus, we can hit on just 40% of them and still turn a profit, because the average parlay has +150 to +180 odds.  This means that if you place $1 on a parlay at +180 odds, if you win, you will receive $2.80 back from the Nevada books (Your $1 investment plus a profit of $1.80 for winning the parlay).  If you win 30% of your wagers at +150, you will turn a profit of 5%.  If you can win one of every three parlays at an average of +150, your profit is 16.7%, more than the average return in the stock market over time.  Of course, over time, your chances of profiting in the stock market nears 100%, where in football wagering,  your chances of profiting remains at 47.6%, unless you have inside information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 23, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Saturday, March 23, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:57 am

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

LSU

114.6

0.0

Maryland

113.0

1.6

Kentucky

118.5

0.0

Wofford

113.9

4.6

Michigan

119.0

0.0

Florida

111.9

7.1

Florida St.

115.2

0.0

Murray St.

110.4

4.8

Gonzaga

123.1

0.0

Baylor

110.5

12.6

Michigan St.

120.9

0.0

Minnesota

110.2

10.7

Purdue

117.1

0.0

Villanova

111.8

5.3

Kansas

115.3

0.0

Auburn

115.7

-0.4

Saturday’s Schedule

TIME (ET)

GAME

TV

SITE

12:10 p.m.

(6) Maryland vs. (3) LSU

CBS

Jacksonville

Approx. 2:55 p.m.

(7) Wofford vs. (2) Kentucky

CBS

Jacksonville

5:15 p.m.

(10) Florida vs. (2) Michigan

CBS

Des Moines

6:10 p.m.

(12) Murray St. vs. (4) Florida St.

TNT

Hartford

7:10 p.m.

(9) Baylor vs. (1) Gonzaga

TBS

Salt Lake City

Approx. 8:00 p.m.

(10) Minnesota vs. (2) Michigan St.

CBS

Des Moines

Approx 8:55 p.m.

(6) Villanova vs. (3) Pudue

TNT

Hartford

Approx 9:55 p.m.

(5) Auburn vs. (4) Kansas

TBS

Salt Lake City

 

March 22, 2019

Bracketnomics 2019: Picking The Round of 32 for Saturday, March 23, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:02 am

Saturday, March 23, 2019  

Round of 32

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

LSU

58.68

3.4

36.9

70.0

15.3

17.7

10.2

Maryland

59.94

7.1

33.9

75.3

16.6

12.3

8.6

Maryland’s strength of schedule advantage is negligible.  LSU’s R+T advantage is also negligible.  Rebounding should be close to even, and it doesn’t appear like turnovers will decide this game.

It comes down to true shooting % margin, and Maryland’s is better by enough to move the needle into Terp territory.

Predicted Winner: Maryland but a close game

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Kentucky

60.47

9.9

36.9

74.7

15.9

16.1

16.3

Wofford

52.40

8.2

32.8

76.3

13.6

18.1

13.5

Wofford looked great in the closing minutes of their blowout win over Seton Hall, just like they did when they closed out the SoCon Championship Game against UNC-Greensboro.  This will not repeat itself Saturday.  Kentucky might give the Terriers a dose of their own medicine, but it will more than likely come in the first half.  The Wildcats are too much out of Wofford’s class, and the SOS difference makes UK’s analytics much superior to Wofford’s.

Even with P. J. Washington still unavailable until next week at the earliest, Kentucky has too much muscle and quickness for the Terriers.  Wofford’s excellent inside-outside combination won’t be able to connect enough times.

Predicted Winner: Kentucky by double digits

 

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Michigan

60.07

8.8

23.8

75.2

12.1

16.0

3.4

Florida

60.24

1.4

31.1

67.9

15.5

19.3

-1.0

Florida became one of the few teams with a negative R+T rating to advance to the Round of 32, and their R+T is still negative.  Michigan’s R+T is definitely a liability also, but at least it is positive.  The Wolverines has a far superior true shooting % margin, most of which is due to their top-rate defense, led by “defensive coordinator” Luke Yaklich.

Predicted Winner: Michigan by 5 to 12 points

 

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Florida St.

59.75

3.4

32.8

73.5

16.3

18.1

8.7

Murray St.

48.31

11.2

31.6

70.7

14.7

17.0

7.2

 

The popular pick is Ja Morant and the Racers, but the ACC was really tough at the top, and this data shows the Seminoles’ SOS looks insurmountable in this game.  The ‘Noles have a lot more muscle than Marquette, and they will be able to wear down Murray and control the boards while forcing the Racers into more second half mistakes.

Predicted Winner: Florida St. by 7 to 15

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Gonzaga

55.92

17.7

30.9

73.1

12.8

16.6

15.0

Baylor

58.64

1.5

37.8

71.4

16.6

16.2

9.0

Baylor’s SOS is a little better than Gonzaga, and the Bears should be able to get a couple extras offensive rebounds, but Gonzaga is too much better everywhere else.  A lot of people are picking the Bears to be the first team to send a #1-seed home, but in my opinion, Gonzaga has the best path to the Final Four of any #1-seed.

Predicted Winner: Gonzaga by double digits

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Michigan St.

61.31

13.6

33.6

73.8

16.0

12.8

11.9

Minnesota

59.70

2.0

31.5

72.4

14.8

14.3

1.1

Never before have conference rivals met in the Round of 32, and this does alter our data a little bit, but not much.  In their previous meeting, Michigan State thoroughly destroyed Minnesota in a game in East Lansing.  The analytical data in that game was not that much off the norm, as Michigan State was expected to dominate the offensive glass and get better percentage shots.

The data has not changed much from that home game for Sparty.  It will be closer this time, but the outcome should still be the same.  MSU has huge R+T and True Shooting % Margin advantages here.  Minny might not be able to beat the Spartans more than one time in 10 games on a neutral floor.

Predicted Winner: Michigan St. by 10-15 points

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Purdue

60.86

2.9

34.2

73.8

13.5

17.0

11.1

Villanova

58.03

5.1

30.5

72.9

14.2

15.3

3.2

 

The defending national champions may not make it to the Sweet 16.  Purdue isn’t that much slower than the Wildcats and much stronger.  The Boilermakers’ will eventually lose to a team with a superior TS Margin and enough muscle to make the board battle even, but I don’t think the Wildcats have the juice this year to be that team.

Predicted Winner: Purdue by 4 to 9 points

 

Team

SOS

TS Marg

OReb%

DReb%

TOV%

DTOV%

R+T

Kansas

62.70

6.1

29.7

72.0

16.0

15.6

2.7

Auburn

59.91

1.7

32.5

67.9

14.7

21.9

6.8

 

This will be an interesting game, and it should be a nail-biter unless one team just doesn’t have it and lays an egg.  I believe that if these teams play 10 times, it would be 5 to 5 in wins.  Kansas has the better TS% Margin, but not by that much.   The difference in this game is that Auburn can force turnovers, and Kansas is turnover-prone.  That’s where I give the Tigers an ever so slight advantage overall.

Predicted Winner: Auburn by 6 or less

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 21, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Louisville

114.1

0.0

Minnesota

109.7

4.4

LSU

114.6

0.0

Yale

106.1

8.5

Auburn

115.7

0.0

New Mexico St.

108.9

6.8

Vermont

105.7

1.0

Florida St.

115.4

-8.7

Michigan St.

121.1

0.0

Bradley

99.8

21.3

Maryland

113.1

0.0

Belmont

109.5

3.6

Kansas

114.5

0.0

Northeastern

105.8

8.7

Marquette

112.6

0.0

Murray St.

109.2

3.4

Nevada

113.1

0.0

Florida

111.5

1.6

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Abilene Christian

101.4

16.6

Villanova

111.9

1.0

Saint Mary’s

111.1

1.8

Gonzaga

122.9

0.0

Fairleigh-Dickinson

97.3

25.6

Michigan

119.0

0.0

Montana

102.4

16.6

Wofford

113.6

0.0

Seton Hall

108.9

4.7

Purdue

117.1

0.0

Old Dominion

103.6

13.5

Syracuse

110.8

0.0

Baylor

110.0

0.8

Schedule for Thursday

Time

Game

TV

Location

12:15 p.m.

(10) Minnesota vs. (7) Louisville

CBS

Des Moines

12:40 p.m.

(14) Yale vs. (3) LSU

truTV

Jacksonville 

1:30 p.m.

(12) New Mexico St. vs. (5) Auburn

TNT

Salt Lake City 

2 p.m.

(13) Vermont vs. (4) Florida St.

TBS

Hartford 

Approx. 2:30 PM

(15) Bradley vs. (2) Michigan St.

CBS

Des Moines 

Approx. 2:55 PM

(11) Belmont vs. (6) Maryland

truTV

Jacksonville 

Approx. 3:45 PM

(13) Northeastern vs. (4) Kansas

TNT

Salt Lake City 

Approx. 4:15 PM

(12) Murray St. vs. (5) Marquette

TBS

Hartford 

6:50 p.m.

(10) Florida vs. (7) Nevada

TNT

Des Moines 

7:10 p.m.

(15) Abilene Christian vs. (2) Kentucky

CBS

Jacksonville 

7:20 p.m.

(11) Saint Mary’s vs. (6) Villanova

TBS

Hartford 

7:27 p.m.

(16) Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. (1) Gonzaga

truTV

Salt Lake City

Approx. 9:20 PM

(15) Montana vs. (2) Michigan

TNT

Des Moines 

Approx. 9:40 PM

(10) Seton Hall vs. (7) Wofford

CBS

Jacksonville 

Approx. 9:50 PM

(14) Old Dominion vs. (3) Purdue

TBS

Hartford 

Approx. 9:57 PM

(9) Baylor vs. (8) Syracuse

truTV

Salt Lake City 

Happy Spring!

 

March 16, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Saturday, March 16, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:29 am

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Vermont

105.6

3.0

Maryland Baltimore Co.

96.2

12.4

Memphis

107.1

3.0

Houston

115.4

-5.3

Cincinnati

110.3

0.0

Wichita St.

103.9

6.4

Rhode Island

102.0

0.0

St. Bonaventure

102.3

-0.3

Davidson

106.3

0.0

Saint Louis

102.9

3.4

Duke

123.2

0.5

Florida St.

115.0

8.7

Kansas

114.9

1.5

Iowa St.

114.3

2.1

Seton Hall

108.6

0.5

Villanova

113.1

-4.0

Montana

101.6

0.0

Eastern Washington

96.6

5.0

Wisconsin

115.4

0.5

Michigan St.

120.3

-4.4

Minnesota

110.0

0.0

Michigan

118.7

-8.7

UC-Irvine

105.6

0.0

Cal St. Fullerton

99.0

6.6

Old Dominion

103.4

0.0

Western Kentucky

103.3

0.1

Harvard

102.9

0.0

Penn

102.3

0.6

Yale

106.0

2.5

Princeton

99.3

9.2

Buffalo

115.3

0.0

Bowling Green

104.5

10.8

Norfolk St.

94.3

0.0

North Carolina Central

92.3

2.0

San Diego St.

102.7

0.0

Utah St.

108.6

-5.9

Washington

109.5

0.0

Oregon

109.7

-0.2

Abilene Christian

101.1

0.0

New Orleans

94.6

6.5

Florida

111.4

0.0

Auburn

115.0

-3.6

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Tennessee

118.5

-0.5

UT-Arlington

100.8

0.0

Georgia Southern

95.9

4.9

Georgia St.

103.2

0.0

Texas St.

102.8

0.4

Prairie View A&M

96.5

0.0

Texas Southern

97.1

-0.6

New Mexico St.

108.1

0.0

Grand Canyon

105.1

3.0

 

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

At Vermont

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Vermont (26-6)

3

Maryland-Baltimore Co. (21-12)

 

 

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Houston

84

Connecticut

45

Memphis

79

Central Florida

55

Cincinnati

82

SMU

74

Wichita St.

80

Temple

74

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Houston (30-2)

5

Memphis (21-12)

2

Cincinnati (26-6)

6

Wichita St. (19-13)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Rhode Island

75

VCU

70

St. Bonaventure

68

George Mason

57

Davidson

70

Saint Joseph’s

60

Saint Louis

64

Dayton

55

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Rhode Island (18-14)

4

St. Bonaventure (17-15)

2

Davidson (24-8)

6

Saint Louis (21-12)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Florida St.

69

Virginia

59

Duke

74

North Carolina

73

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Florida St. (27-6)

3

Duke (28-5)

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Iowa St.

63

Kansas St.

59

Kansas

88

West Virginia

74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Iowa St. (22-11)

3

Kansas (25-8)

 

 

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Villanova

71

Xavier

67 ot

Seton Hall

81

Marquette

79

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (24-9)

3

Seton Hall (20-12)

 

 

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Montana

78

Weber St.

49

Eastern Washington

77

Southern Utah

61

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (25-8)

3

Eastern Washington (16-17)

 

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Michigan St.

77

Ohio St.

70

Wisconsin

66

Nebraska

62

Minnesota

75

Purdue

73

Michigan

74

Iowa

53

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Michigan St. (26-6)

4

Wisconsin (23-9)

7

Minnesota (21-12)

3

Michigan (27-5)

 

 

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

UC-Irvine

75

Long Beach St.

67

Cal St. Fulerton

64

UC Santa Barbara

58

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (29-5)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (16-16)

 

 

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Old Dominion

61

UAB

59

Western Kentucky

70

Southern Miss.

59

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (25-8)

2

Western Kentucky (20-13)

 

Ivy League (Ivy Madness)

Site: John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT (Yale)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Harvard (17-10)

4

Penn (19-11)

2

Yale (20-7)

3

Princeton (16-11)

 

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Buffalo

85

Central Michigan

81

Bowling Green

71

Northern Illinois

67

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (30-3)

3

Bowling Green (22-11)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

UNC Central

65

North Carolina A&T

63

Norfolk St.

75

Howard

69

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Norfolk St. (21-12)

3

North Carolina Central (17-15)

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

San Diego St.

65

Nevada

56

Utah St.

85

Fresno St.

60

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

4

San Diego St. (21-11)

2

Utah St. (27-6)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Washington

66

Colorado

61

Oregon

79

Arizona St.

75 ot

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (26-7)

6

Oregon (22-12)

 

 

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

New Orleans

79

Sam Houston St.

76

Abilene Christian

69

Southeastern Louisiana

66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

New Orleans (19-12)

2

Abilene Christian (26-6)

 

 

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Florida

76

LSU

73

Auburn

73

South Carolina

64

Kentucky

73

Alabama

55

Tennessee

83

Mississippi St.

76

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Florida (19-14)

5

Auburn (24-9)

2

Kentucky (27-5)

3

Tennessee (28-4)

 

 

Sun Belt Conference

Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Georgia Southern

81

Louisiana Monroe

67

Texas St.

79

South Alabama

67

Semifinals–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

UT Arlington (16-15)

3

Georgia Southern (21-11)

1

Georgia St. (22-9)

4

Texas St. (24-8)

 

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Site: at Higher Seeds

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Prairie View A&M

81

Grambling

71

Texas Southern

80

Alabama St.

66

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Prairie View A&M (22-12)

2

Texas Southern (21-12)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

New Mexico St.

79

UT RGV

72

Grand Canyon

78

New Mexico St.

74

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 16 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (29-4)

3

Grand Canyon (20-12)

 

 

Automatic Bids To Date

Team

Conf

W-L

Liberty

Atlantic Sun

28-6

Gardner-Webb

Big South

23-11

Murray St.

Ohio Valley

27-4

Bradley

Missouri Valley

20-14

Wofford

Southern

29-4

Iona

Metro Atlantic

17-15

Fairleigh-Dickinson

Northeast

20-13

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

26-8

Northeastern

Colonial

23-10

Saint Mary’s

West Coast

22-11

North Dakota St.

Summit

18-15

Colgate

Patriot

24-10

 

The PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Convene

The PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus have gathered (if only electronically) is our bunkers, otherwise known as our man caves and woman caves watching multiple games simultaneously to get better familiar with all the teams still trying to Dance.

Tonight, we will begin putting our opinions together to formulate our final Bracketology selections for Sunday afternoon.  We will publish our initial predicted 68 around 2 PM EDT on Sunday and then a final prediction at the conclusion of the last meaningful conference tournament championship game, if one might affect the seedings.

At the moment, there are games that could wildly swing the bottom of the seed line, affecting who plays in the First Four, and there are a couple of potenial bid-stealers still alive.

Here is our planned schedule for the weekend

Saturday late morning: Bracketology number 1 (Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday morning: Bracketology number 2 (Again, Just the Captain’s Selection)

Sunday early afternoon: Bracket Gurus Initial Field of 68 Predictions

Sunday late afternoon: Bracket Gurus Final Field of 68 Predictions (if necessary)

Note: The Captain and the Gurus are making their selections trying to predict what the Selection Committee will do and not by using their own opinions of which 68 teams should be in the field.  One of out methods will include trying to predict political biases of the Committee members.  By political, we don’t mean Liberal vs. Conservative.  We mean Power Conference vs. Mid-Major and Low-Major, or in other words, why State U at 18-16 will beat out Tiny Tech at 29-5 that lost in their conference championship game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 15, 2019

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Friday, March 15, 2019

March 15, 2019

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Virginia

Gonzaga

North Carolina

Duke

2

Kentucky

Michigan St.

Tennessee

LSU

3

Michigan

Purdue

Houston

Texas Tech

4

Florida St.

Wisconsin

Kansas

Kansas St.

5

Mississippi St.

Virginia Tech

Marquette

Nevada

6

Buffalo

Villanova

Maryland

Auburn

7

Wofford

Cincinnati

Iowa St.

Louisville

8

VCU

Iowa

Central Florida

Washington

9

Syracuse

Ole Miss

Baylor

Seton Hall

10

Minnesota

Oklahoma

Ohio St.

Utah St.

11

Temple

Arizona St.

North Carolina St.

TCU/Florida

12

St. John’s/Belmont

Saint Mary’s

Murray St.

New Mexico St.

13

Liberty

Vermont

UC-Irvine

Old Dominion

14

Montana

Northeastern

Northern Kentucky

Georgia St.

15

Yale

Bradley

Colgate

Gardner-Webb

16

Sam Houston St.

Prairie View

Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson

North Dakota St./Norfolk St.

 

Last 4 Bye

Utah St.

Temple

Arizona St.

North Carolina St.

Last 4 In

TCU

Florida

St. John’s

Belmont

 

 

First 4 Out

Alabama

Clemson

Indiana

Furman

Next 4 Out

Nebraska

Texas

UNC Greensboro

Georgetown

 

Conference

Bids

ACC

8

Big Ten

8

SEC

7

Big 12

6

Big East

5

AAC

4

MWC

2

Pac-12

2

West Coast

2

Ohio Valley

2

One-Bid Leagues

22

 

Bid-Stealers Are Alive

There are numerous bid stealers alive in the Power Conference tournaments.

Memphis plays in the AAC Quarterfinals today where they host the tournament

Saint Louis, Dayton, and Davidson are still alive in the Atlantic 10

West Virginia is an upset of Kansas today away from making the Big 12 Finals

Xavier is in the Big East semifinals playing Villanova today

Nebraska is alive in the Big Ten and playing Wisconsin in today’s quarterfinals

Fresno St. and San Diego St.  both play in the Mountain West semifinals today

Oregon and Colorado look like game competitors in the Pac-12 semifinals today

South Carolina begins play in the SEC quarterfinals today, while Alabama must beat Kentucky to stay in the mix as one of the first teams out

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Friday, March 15, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:37 am

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Houston

114.9

0.0

Connecticut

105.1

9.8

Memphis

106.7

3.0

Central Florida

110.3

-0.6

Cincinnati

110.3

0.0

SMU

103.1

7.2

Temple

106.8

0.0

Wichita St.

104.7

2.1

Virginia Commonwealth

111.3

0.0

Rhode Island

103.0

8.3

St. Bonaventure

102.6

0.0

George Mason

100.7

1.9

Davidson

106.3

0.0

Saint Joseph’s

99.2

7.1

Dayton

107.9

0.0

Saint Louis

102.8

5.1

Virginia

122.1

0.0

Florida St.

113.4

8.7

North Carolina

121.8

0.0

Duke

123.5

-1.7

Kansas St.

112.9

1.0

Iowa St.

113.6

0.3

Kansas

114.9

2.0

West Virginia

105.7

11.2

Villanova

112

0.0

Xavier

106.0

6.0

Seton Hall

108.6

1.0

Marquette

113.0

-3.4

Montana

101.6

0.0

Weber St.

97.4

4.2

Southern Utah

93.4

0.0

Eastern Washington

95.2

-1.8

Michigan St.

120.9

0.0

Ohio St.

110.5

10.4

Wisconsin

115.4

1.0

Nebraska

111.7

4.7

Purdue

117.5

0.0

Minnesota

109.2

8.3

Michigan

118.3

0.0

Iowa

111.6

6.7

UC-Irvine

105.6

0.0

Long Beach St.

97.1

8.5

UC Santa Barbara

99.8

0.0

Cal St. Fullerton

98.3

1.5

Old Dominion

103.4

0.0

UAB

100.3

3.1

Western Kentucky

103.4

0.0

Southern Miss.

104.0

-0.6

Buffalo

115.3

0.0

Central Michigan

103.2

12.1

Northern Illinois

102.6

0.0

Bowling Green

104.1

-1.5

North Carolina A&T

92.5

0.0

North Carolina Central

92.6

-0.1

Norfolk St.

94.3

0.0

Howard

91.1

3.2

Nevada

113.9

1.0

San Diego St.

103.3

11.6

Utah St.

110.6

0.0

Fresno St.

108.5

2.1

Washington

109.5

0.0

Colorado

107.0

2.5

Arizona St.

107.9

0.0

Oregon

109.7

-1.8

Sam Houston St.

99.7

0.0

New Orleans

94.7

5.0

Abilene Christian

101.1

0.0

Southeastern Louisiana

95.7

5.4

LSU

114.8

0.0

Florida

112.9

1.9

South Carolina

106.9

0.0

Auburn

115.3

-8.4

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Alabama

108.2

9.8

Tennessee

119.0

1.0

Mississippi St.

114.0

6.0

Georgia Southern

104.7

0.0

Louisiana Monroe

102.3

2.4

Texas St.

103.0

0.0

South Alabama

97.4

5.6

Prairie View A&M

96.5

0.0

Grambling

94.1

2.4

Texas Southern

96.6

0.0

Alabama St.

89.0

7.6

New Mexico St.

108.1

0.0

UT Rio Grande Valley

98.7

9.4

Utah Valley

105.1

0.0

Grand Canyon

105.6

-0.5

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

First Round–Thursday, March 14

Connecticut

80

South Florida

73

Memphis

83

Tulane

68

SMU

74

Tulsa

65

Wichita St.

73

East Carolina

57

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Houston (29-2)

9

Connecticut (16-16)

4

Central Florida (23-7)

5/12

Memphis (20-12)

2

Cincinnati (25-6)

10

SMU (15-16)

3

Temple (23-8)

6

Wichita St. (18-13)

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Rhode Island

76

La Salle

57

George Mason

61

George Washington

57

Saint Joseph’s

92

Duquesne

86

Saint Louis

71

Richmond

68

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia Commonwealth (25-6)

8

Rhode Island (17-14)

4

St. Bonaventure (16-15)

5

George Mason (18-14)

2

Davidson (23-8)

10

Saint Joseph’s (14-18)

3

Dayton (21-10)

6

Saint Louis (20-12)

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Virginia

76

North Carolina St.

56

Florida St.

65

Virginia Tech

63 ot

North Carolina

83

Louisville

70

Duke

84

Syracuse

72

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia (29-2)

5

Florida St. (26-6)

2

North Carolina (27-5)

3

Duke (27-5)

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Kansas St.

70

TCU

61

Iowa St.

83

Baylor

66

West Virginia

79

Texas Tech

74

Kansas

65

Texas

57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Kansas St. (25-7)

5

Iowa St. (21-11)

10

West Virginia (14-19)

3

Kansas (24-8)

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Villanova

73

Providence

62

Xavier

63

Creighton

61

Marquette

86

St. John’s

54

Seton Hall

73

Georgetown

57

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (23-9)

4

Xavier (17-14)

2

Marquette (24-8)

3

Seton Hall (19-12)

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Montana

79

Sacramento St.

73

Weber St.

81

Portland St.

71

Southern Utah

83

Northern Colorado

63

Eastern Washington

90

Montana St.

84

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (24-8)

4

Weber St. (18-14)

7

Southern Utah (16-15)

3

Eastern Washington (15-17)

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Ohio St.

79

Indiana

75

Nebraska

69

Maryland

61

Minnesota

77

Penn St.

72 ot

Iowa

83

Illinois

62

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Michigan St. (25-6)

8

Ohio St. (19-13)

4

Wisconsin (22-9)

13

Nebraska (18-15)

2

Purdue (23-8)

7

Minnesota (20-12)

3

Michigan (26-5)

6

Iowa (22-10)

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

UC-Irvine

63

Cal St. Riverside

44

Long Beach St.

68

Hawaii

66

Cal St. Fullerton

75

UC Davis

71 ot

UC Santa Barbara

71

Cal St. Northridge

68

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (28-5)

5

Long Beach St. (15-18)

2

UC Santa Barbara (22-9)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (15-16)

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Old Dominion

57

Louisiana Tech

56

UAB

85

UTSA

76

Western Kentucky

67

North Texas

51

Southern Miss.

82

Marshall

73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (24-8)

5

UAB (20-13)

2

Western Kentucky (19-13)

3

Southern Miss. (20-11)

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Buffalo

82

Akron

46

Central Michigan

89

Kent St.

81

Northern Illinois

80

Toledo

76

Bowling Green

99

Ball St.

86

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (29-3)

5

Central Michigan (23-10)

7

Northern Illinois (27-16)

3

Bowling Green (21-11)

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

UNC Central

75

Delaware St.

57

Howard

80

Bethune-Cookman

71

North Carolina A&T

82

Coppin St.

79 ot

Norfolk St.

78

South Carolina St.

73

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

North Carolina A&T (19-12)

3

North Carolina Central (16-15)

1

Norfolk St. (20-12)

4

Howard (17-15)

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Nevada

77

Boise St.

69

San Diego St.

63

UNLV

55

Utah St.

91

New Mexico

83

Fresno St.

76

Air Force

50

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1

Nevada (29-3)

4

San Diego St. (20-11)

2

Utah St. (26-6)

3

Fresno St. (22-8)

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Washington

78

USC

75

Colorado

73

Oregon St.

58

Arizona St.

83

UCLA

72

Oregon

66

Utah

54

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (25-7)

5

Colorado (21-11)

2

Arizona St. (22-9)

6

Oregon (21-12)

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

New Orleans

76

Lamar

72

Southeastern Louisiana

79

Central Arkansas

65

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Sam Houston St. (21-10)

4

New Orleans (18-12)

2

Abilene Christian (25-6)

3

Southeastern Louisiana (17-15)

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Florida

66

Arkansas

50

Auburn

81

Missouri

71

Alabama

62

Ole Miss

57

Mississippi St.

80

Texas A&M

54

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

LSU (26-5)

8

Florida (18-14)

4

South Carolina (16-15)

5

Auburn (23-9)

2

Kentucky (26-5)

10

Alabama (18-14)

3

Tennessee (27-4)

6

Mississippi St. (23-9)

Sun Belt Conference

Site: 1st Rd at Higher Seed, Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Louisiana Monroe

80

Coastal Carolina

50

South Alabama

70

Louisiana

69

 

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

Georgia Southern (20-11)

7

Louisiana Monroe (18-14)

4

Texas St. (23-8)

8

South Alabama (17-16)

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Site: at Higher Seeds

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 12

Prairie View A&M

86

Alcorn St.

66

Grambling

59

Arkansas Pine Bluff

52

Alabama St.

58

Jackson St.

49

Texas Southern

80

Southern

70

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Prairie View A&M (21-12)

4

Grambling (17-15)

2

Texas Southern (20-12)

6

Alabama St. (12-18)

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

New Mexico St.

86

Chicago St.

49

UT RGV

85

Cal St. Bakersfield

70

Grand Canyon

84

Seattle

75

Utah Valley

70

UM Kansas City

64

 

Semifinals–Friday, March 15

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (28-4)

4

UT Rio Grande Valley (19-15)

2

Utah Valley (24-8)

3/6

Grand Canyon (19-12)

 

 

 

 

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