PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 14-16, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

PiRate Ratings Spreads
September 14-16
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	New Mexico	12.9	10.4	11.8
Temple	Massachusetts	14.2	15.6	14.5
South Florida	Illinois	20.5	17.3	22.9
UTEP	Arizona	-23.3	-17.6	-20.1
South Carolina	Kentucky	0.5	1.2	0.2
Marshall	Kent St.	4.6	4.9	4.7
Boston College	Notre Dame	-8.1	-5.1	-8.8
Virginia	Connecticut	16.2	13.0	17.0
Michigan	Air Force	26.8	25.4	25.7
UAB	Coastal Carolina	-8.3	-3.8	-8.0
Miami (O)	Cincinnati	4.5	4.3	5.2
Penn St.	Georgia St.	45.2	43.7	46.0
Akron	Iowa St.	-15.1	-12.3	-15.7
Old Dominion	North Carolina	-16.3	-12.1	-14.3
Pittsburgh	Oklahoma St.	-9.8	-8.6	-12.3
Minnesota	Middle Tennessee	17.5	17.2	16.2
Indiana	Florida Int’l.	26.8	26.6	26.2
Memphis	UCLA	-2.3	-2.3	-1.4
Nebraska	Northern Illinois	20.7	22.3	19.7
Duke	Baylor	13.2	9.2	11.7
Ohio U	Kansas	4.0	2.8	5.7
Wake Forest	Utah St.	21.0	21.4	21.2
Louisville	Clemson	-8.2	-5.5	-7.1
Syracuse	Central Michigan	18.3	16.3	17.0
East Carolina	Virginia Tech	-28.3	-26.4	-28.7
BYU	Wisconsin	-17.3	-14.4	-15.1
Missouri	Purdue	7.8	2.8	5.7
Iowa	North Texas	33.3	31.3	33.0
Texas A&M	UL-Lafayette	23.9	19.9	22.7
Northwestern	Bowling Green	31.2	28.8	30.2
Oklahoma	Tulane	36.1	33.4	36.6
Florida	Tennessee	6.4	7.7	7.5
TCU	SMU	19.0	16.1	18.6
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	11.5	7.8	12.1
Ohio St.	Army	36.2	33.7	34.5
Washington St.	Oregon St.	27.0	24.1	27.6
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-25.8	-19.6	-27.4
Alabama	Colorado St.	32.1	28.7	31.2
Toledo	Tulsa	-0.4	0.4	1.3
Western Michigan	Idaho	21.4	15.8	22.0
UL-Monroe	Southern Miss.	-2.8	-3.9	-4.3
Wyoming	Oregon	-9.5	-8.6	-9.7
Mississippi St.	LSU	-10.3	-7.9	-10.6
Central Florida	Georgia Tech	-7.5	-2.9	-4.6
Vanderbilt	Kansas St.	-1.6	-3.0	-3.2
Houston	Rice	26.1	23.8	25.2
New Mexico St.	Troy	-3.5	-6.3	-3.4
Texas Tech	Arizona St.	5.3	4.6	5.0
USC	Texas	13.0	11.3	13.2
Utah	San Jose St.	23.9	27.2	24.9
Washington	Fresno St.	43.8	41.5	44.5
California	Ole Miss	-4.0	-5.2	-4.3
San Diego St.	Stanford	-15.0	-12.1	-12.8

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Auburn	Mercer	40
Georgia	Samford	26
UTSA	Southern	24
West Virginia	Delaware St.	55
North Carolina St.	Furman	31
Colorado	Northern Colorado	39
Ball St.	Tennessee Tech	20
Rutgers	Morgan St.	36
Charlotte	N.C. A&T	-2
Buffalo	Colgate	7
Nevada	Idaho St.	25
Arkansas St.	Ark.-Pine Bluff	51
South Alabama	Alabama A&M	28
Florida Atlantic	Bethune-Cookman	15

The Big 12 Arises Like The Phoenix
A week after Texas and Baylor suffered devastating losses, the Big 12 returned from the dead with some major victories. Oklahoma went to the Giant Horseshoe and toyed with Ohio State for most of the evening. The Sooners looked about as effective on offense as they looked back in 2008, when they had Sam Bradford, Chris Brown, Demarco Murray, Juaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham. But, it was the defense that really looked dominant. Oklahoma’s effort Saturday night reminded us more of their 2001 team that featured Tommie Harris, Rocky Calmus, Derrick Strait, and Roy Williams.

TCU’s defense totally shut down Arkansas in the Horned Frogs win at Fayetteville. TCU’s defense held Arkansas to 13 first downs and 267 total yards; more importantly, they held them to just 7 points.

Oklahoma State won on the road at South Alabama, which doesn’t sound like a big deal, but the Jaguars have a history of sneaking up on Power 5 conference teams.

Baylor lost once again, and Iowa State just missed against Iowa, while Texas played much better in their drubbing of San Jose St. The Longhorns get a chance to redeem themselves for the Maryland debacle when they venture to the LA Coliseum to take on USC this week. If UT keeps this game close, then watch out for the ‘Horns in Big 12 Conference play. It is a transition process into Coach Tom Herman’s offense, but Herman’s teams find a way to win, and Texas will win more than they did last year.

ACC Tilt Highlights Top Games This Week
Following Clemson’s defensive gem against Auburn, the Tigers must now face the reigning Heisman Trophy winner on his turf. Clemson’s game at Louisville tops this week’s schedule. Louisville has the horses to do to CU what they did to Florida State last year, but we believe Coach Dabo Swinney will come up with another brilliant game plan to slow down the Cardinal attack. The issue is whether the Clemson offense has enough to get to about 27 points, because even when you slow down the ‘Ville, you might still give up 24 points.

Clemson’s big rival has a big game this week. South Carolina hosts Kentucky. USC already owns a conference win and can take a major step forward toward competing with Georgia for the East Division flag. Kentucky has not looked up to the standards we thought they had the potential to be, performing so-so in wins over Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky.

Florida hosts Tennessee in the Swamp, and the Gators got a week off after their no-show event against Michigan. Meanwhile, Tennessee is playing its third game in 12 days and has suffered a couple of injury losses. The Vols’ offense has been at the extremes. On one drive, they look like Louisville, and on the next drive they look like a college version of the New York Jets or San Francisco 49ers. Florida was very consistent offensively against Michigan–they looked like the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on every drive against the Wolverines. Expect the Gators to play near their maximum capacity in this game. They cannot start 0-2 with a now 11-game schedule and have much chance to recover to much more than 7-4 and possibly just 6-5. A Tennessee win puts the Big Orange into the contender category in the mediocre East Division.

LSU travels north to take on an under-the-radar Mississippi State team that has circled this game on their schedule since Spring Ball. Miss State has just one win over the Tigers in the 16 games in this century, and that one win came at Baton Rouge. The last time the Bulldogs bested their Bayou Rivals in Starkville was 1999. The winner of this game has to be taken seriously as a top contender to Alabama.

Kansas State looks to prove that it belongs in the discussion in the Big 12, and the Wildcats have a tough game at Vanderbilt this week. The Commodores looked similar to Stanford and Michigan in their opening two wins, but to beat a top 15 team is a lot different than beating Middle Tennessee and Alabama A&M. This game actually features the top two passing offenses in Raw QB Ratings, as Kyle Shurmur has Vandy at #1, while Jesse Ertz has Kansas State at #2. This looks to be the best Kansas State offense since the great 1998 team almost made it to the National Championship Game.

The previously mentioned Texas-USC game should be interesting, but the Trojans should eventually win this one by two touchdowns or more. However, if the Longhorns can control the clock offensively, their questionable defense can hold on long enough to make this game close enough to be undecided until the fourth quarter.

The late game on the Coast has Stanford playing at San Diego State. If the Aztecs are to challenge for the Group of 5’s top spot and the New Year’s 6 Bowl, they must win this game. Stanford will be a tough out for the hometown team, but Rocky Long has SDSU looking like a team capable of running the table if they get past the Cardinal.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
This happens frequently in September. A top team is upset by another team, but the top team still rates ahead of the team that beat them. That’s the liability of predictive ratings, and the strength of retrodictive ratings. We have three predictive ratings–the regular PiRate, the PiRate Mean, and the PiRate Bias. We also have one set of PiRate Retrodictive Ratings.

If you need a primer, predictive ratings take what the teams have done so far and tries to predict what they will do next week. So, if State U has a predictive rating of 113.5 and plays Tech with a rating of 110.2, then before home field advantage (and road team disadvantage) are factored in, State is expected to beat Tech by 3.3 points. Let’s say the game is at State, and our special Pirate formula shows State to have a 3.2 point home field advantage for this game. It would then be quite easy to see that State should beat teach by 6.5 points.

Our retrodictive rating does not try to predict the outcomes of the next week’s slate of games. It is only concerned with what the teams have done. If State and Tech were to have the same Retro Ratings as their predictive ratings, this would not indicate that State should win by 6.5 points. It only means that to date, State has been about 3.3 points better in their results than Tech has been (no home field advantage used because this rating does not predict outcomes).

Why are we bringing this up? Simple. Ohio State is still number two in our predictive ratings. Oklahoma is behind the Buckeyes. In our Retrodictive Ratings, Ohio State fell quite a bit, just like Florida State did after losing to Alabama.

How can our predictive ratings show Ohio State to still be number two? It is a case of methodology. Our updates to our Predictive Ratings are rather conservative, with the Mean Rating being the most conservative, and the Bias being the least conservative, but still conservative. Remember, our predictive ratings are only looking forward and not backward. It is easier to think in terms of a major upset, like when Ole Miss beat Alabama two consecutive seasons. These two wins did not jump Ole Miss over the Tide. In a similar manner, when LSU beat Alabama during the regular season in 2011, Alabama stayed ahead of LSU in the ratings. When they met again in the National Championship Game, Alabama was the favorite, and they won 21-0.

We will lead with our Retrodictive Ratings First–We have put the rating numbers in this week to show you the difference between these ratings and the Predictive Ratings.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team	Retro
1	Alabama	127.2
2	Clemson	125.8
3	Washington	124.9
4	Oklahoma	124.6
5	USC	124.1
6	Penn St.	123.8
7	LSU	122.3
8	Ohio St.	120.8
9	Oklahoma St.	120.4
10	Wisconsin	118.8
11	Michigan	118.6
12	Miami (Fla)	116.6
13	Louisville	116.5
14	Florida St.	116.4
15	Auburn	115.9
16	Virginia Tech	115.6
17	Stanford	114.5
18	Kansas St.	114.0
19	Georgia	113.9
20	Tennessee	113.1
21	TCU	112.7
22	Washington St.	112.4
23	Utah	112.2
24	Iowa	111.9
25	Colorado	111.8
26	Florida	111.5
27	Houston	111.3
28	Mississippi St.	110.8
29	South Florida	110.3
30	San Diego St.	110.0
31	Georgia Tech	109.5
32	South Carolina	109.3
33	UCLA	109.1
34	Oregon	108.9
35	Notre Dame	108.8
36	Vanderbilt	108.6
37	West Virginia	108.3
38	Minnesota	108.0
39	Boise St.	107.7
40	Michigan St.	107.0
41	Pittsburgh	106.7
42	Toledo	106.1
43	Texas A&M	104.8
44	Wake Forest	104.3
45	Nebraska	104.0
46	Maryland	103.8
47	Duke	103.7
48	Kentucky	103.7
49	North Carolina St.	103.1
50	Memphis	103.0
51	Northwestern	101.8
52	Navy	101.6
53	Ole Miss	101.5
54	California	101.3
55	Tulsa	101.1
56	Texas	101.0
57	Arkansas	100.7
58	Air Force	100.5
59	Western Michigan	100.1
60	Colorado St.	100.0
61	Texas Tech	99.8
62	BYU	99.3
63	Appalachian St.	98.7
64	North Carolina	98.4
65	Army	98.1
66	SMU	97.9
67	Central Florida	97.7
68	Temple	97.5
69	Boston College	97.3
70	Indiana	97.1
71	Old Dominion	96.8
72	Western Kentucky	96.7
73	Troy	96.5
74	Arkansas St.	96.4
75	UTSA	96.2
76	Iowa St.	96.0
77	Purdue	95.9
78	Wyoming	95.7
79	Louisiana Tech	95.4
80	Illinois	95.3
81	Missouri	95.2
82	Eastern Michigan	95.0
83	Central Michigan	94.8
84	Arizona St.	94.4
85	Arizona	94.2
86	Middle Tennessee	94.0
87	Northern Illinois	93.8
88	Ohio	93.6
89	Syracuse	93.5
90	Tulane	93.5
91	Baylor	93.3
92	Southern Miss.	93.2
93	Oregon St.	93.1
94	New Mexico	92.9
95	Hawaii	92.7
96	Utah St.	92.2
97	Idaho	91.5
98	Cincinnati	91.2
99	Miami (O)	91.1
100	Virginia	90.9
101	UL-Lafayette	90.7
102	Coastal Carolina	90.0
103	Akron	89.6
104	Marshall	89.6
105	Nevada	89.3
106	New Mexico St.	88.8
107	Rutgers	88.5
108	Ball St.	88.3
109	South Alabama	88.0
110	Fresno St.	87.9
111	Georgia Southern	87.4
112	North Texas	87.1
113	Connecticut	86.6
114	UL-Monroe	86.3
115	San Jose St.	86.1
116	Kent St.	85.9
117	Kansas	85.5
118	Rice	85.2
119	Buffalo	84.9
120	UNLV	84.4
121	East Carolina	83.7
122	Georgia St.	83.6
123	Florida Int’l.	83.4
124	Bowling Green	83.0
125	Florida Atlantic	82.6
126	UTEP	82.1
127	UAB	80.5
128	Texas St.	79.1
129	Charlotte	77.5
130	Massachusetts	75.3

Our Regular Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	133.0	128.2	132.0	131.1
2	Ohio St.	129.4	126.6	128.7	128.2
3	Washington	128.9	125.3	129.7	128.0
4	Clemson	128.9	125.1	128.1	127.4
5	Oklahoma	127.7	125.4	128.6	127.2
6	Florida St.	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
7	Penn St.	126.2	124.0	126.9	125.7
8	Auburn	124.0	121.9	123.8	123.2
9	U S C	122.0	121.3	122.3	121.9
10	Oklahoma St.	121.6	120.3	123.2	121.7
11	L S U	120.3	118.5	121.0	119.9
12	Wisconsin	121.1	117.2	119.4	119.3
13	Stanford	118.8	116.7	117.9	117.8
14	Miami	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
15	Louisville	117.7	116.6	118.0	117.4
16	Georgia	116.7	117.9	116.8	117.1
17	Michigan	117.1	116.4	116.3	116.6
18	Virginia Tech	116.2	115.8	116.6	116.2
19	Washington St.	116.8	114.0	115.9	115.6
20	Florida	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
21	Kansas St.	114.8	114.5	115.3	114.9
22	T C U	114.8	112.1	114.7	113.8
23	N. Carolina St.	113.4	113.1	113.1	113.2
24	Texas	112.0	113.0	112.0	112.4
25	Colorado	113.7	111.7	111.5	112.3
26	Georgia Tech	113.1	110.6	111.1	111.6
27	Iowa	111.5	111.2	111.2	111.3
28	Tennessee	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
29	Kentucky	111.3	109.8	110.8	110.6
30	Notre Dame	111.2	109.3	111.3	110.6
31	Oregon	111.1	107.9	110.2	109.7
32	U C L A	110.2	109.2	109.7	109.7
33	West Virginia	109.1	109.9	109.1	109.4
34	Vanderbilt	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
35	South Florida	109.5	107.7	110.7	109.3
36	Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.3	108.7
37	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.7	108.0	108.5
38	Duke	109.5	108.1	107.9	108.5
39	N. Carolina	109.4	108.1	107.9	108.5
40	S. Carolina	108.8	108.0	108.0	108.3
41	Minnesota	108.0	108.0	107.5	107.8
42	Mississippi St.	107.0	107.6	107.4	107.3
43	Arkansas	106.7	106.2	106.5	106.5
44	Ole Miss	107.4	106.0	105.8	106.4
45	Utah	105.4	107.9	105.7	106.3
46	Maryland	105.6	107.7	105.7	106.3
47	Syracuse	106.7	105.1	105.8	105.9
48	Indiana	105.0	105.1	105.4	105.2
49	Memphis	104.9	103.9	105.3	104.7
50	Wake Forest	105.1	104.4	104.5	104.6
51	Nebraska	104.1	105.7	103.3	104.4
52	Texas A&M	105.1	102.7	103.7	103.8
53	Houston	104.2	103.0	103.8	103.7
54	Central Florida	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
55	Colo. State	103.9	102.5	103.8	103.4
56	Tulsa	102.8	102.1	102.8	102.6
57	Iowa State	101.7	102.8	102.4	102.3
58	Texas Tech	102.8	102.5	101.6	102.3
59	San Diego St.	100.9	101.5	102.1	101.5
60	Missouri	102.6	99.7	101.3	101.2
61	Boise St.	101.6	99.4	101.0	100.7
62	BYU	100.9	99.8	101.3	100.6
63	Virginia	99.9	99.9	101.3	100.4
64	Arizona St.	100.5	100.9	99.6	100.3
65	Boston College	100.1	101.2	99.5	100.3
66	Baylor	99.3	101.9	99.2	100.1
67	Michigan St.	98.6	102.0	99.5	100.0
68	Toledo	99.4	99.5	101.2	100.0
69	Western Michigan	100.4	97.7	101.8	100.0
70	Navy	99.0	100.0	98.9	99.3
71	Appalachian St.	99.7	96.9	100.2	98.9
72	Purdue	97.8	99.9	98.6	98.8
73	California	99.9	97.3	97.9	98.4
74	Arizona	98.7	97.5	96.6	97.6
75	Wyoming	98.7	96.3	97.5	97.5
76	SMU	97.2	97.5	97.6	97.4
77	Army	96.3	95.9	97.2	96.5
78	Rutgers	95.9	95.9	95.4	95.7
79	W. Kentucky	95.7	93.9	97.1	95.6
80	Temple	95.0	95.7	95.1	95.3
81	U T S A	93.9	95.6	96.1	95.2
82	Tulane	94.6	95.0	95.0	94.9
83	Eastern Michigan	94.6	94.2	94.5	94.4
84	Miami (O)	92.9	95.3	95.1	94.4
85	Middle Tennessee	93.5	93.8	94.3	93.9
86	Air Force	93.3	94.0	93.6	93.6
87	Troy	93.7	93.9	92.9	93.5
88	Oregon St.	92.8	92.9	91.3	92.3
89	Illinois	92.0	93.4	90.8	92.1
90	New Mexico	91.7	92.0	92.2	92.0
91	Old Dominion	90.6	93.5	91.1	91.7
92	Central Michigan	91.4	91.8	91.8	91.7
93	Cincinnati	89.9	92.4	91.4	91.2
94	Arkansas St.	89.5	91.1	91.2	90.6
95	Ohio U	89.5	91.4	90.4	90.4
96	Kansas	88.4	91.6	87.7	89.3
97	Hawaii	88.6	90.2	88.6	89.1
98	U N L V	87.5	90.4	87.9	88.6
99	Louisiana Tech	87.2	89.1	87.9	88.1
100	Connecticut	86.7	89.9	87.3	88.0
101	Fresno St.	88.1	86.7	88.2	87.7
102	Southern Miss.	87.1	88.5	87.2	87.6
103	Nevada	85.3	88.4	87.3	87.0
104	Utah St.	87.6	86.5	86.8	87.0
105	Northern Illinois	86.4	86.4	86.6	86.4
106	N. Mexico St.	87.1	84.6	86.6	86.1
107	East Carolina	84.9	86.4	84.8	85.4
108	Marshall	84.5	85.9	85.6	85.4
109	Akron	83.7	87.5	83.7	85.0
110	UL-Lafayette	84.2	85.8	84.0	84.7
111	Florida Atlantic	83.1	86.4	84.2	84.6
112	S. Alabama	83.5	86.4	83.7	84.5
113	Georgia St.	84.5	83.7	84.4	84.2
114	Buffalo	82.5	85.2	84.5	84.1
115	San Jose St.	84.5	83.7	83.8	84.0
116	Kent St.	82.9	84.1	83.9	83.6
117	Idaho	82.0	85.0	82.8	83.2
118	Massachusetts	83.4	82.6	83.1	83.0
119	N. Texas	81.3	82.9	81.2	81.8
120	Bowling Green	81.2	81.8	82.1	81.7
121	Florida Int’l.	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
122	UL-Monroe	81.8	82.1	80.3	81.4
123	Ball St.	79.0	81.4	80.6	80.3
124	Georgia Southern	79.9	81.2	79.5	80.2
125	Rice	79.6	80.7	80.1	80.1
126	Coastal Carolina	74.8	75.7	76.6	75.7
127	Charlotte	74.5	77.1	74.9	75.5
128	U T E P	72.9	77.3	74.0	74.8
129	Texas St.	71.5	74.8	70.3	72.2
130	UAB	64.1	69.3	66.1	66.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	0-0	2-0	109.5	107.7	110.7	109.3
Central Florida	0-0	1-0	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
Temple	0-0	1-1	95.0	95.7	95.1	95.3
Cincinnati	0-0	1-1	89.9	92.4	91.4	91.2
Connecticut	0-0	1-0	86.7	89.9	87.3	88.0
East Carolina	0-0	0-2	84.9	86.4	84.8	85.4
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	1-0	104.9	103.9	105.3	104.7
Houston	0-0	1-0	104.2	103.0	103.8	103.7
Tulsa	0-0	1-1	102.8	102.1	102.8	102.6
Navy	1-0	2-0	99.0	100.0	98.9	99.3
SMU	0-0	2-0	97.2	97.5	97.6	97.4
Tulane	0-1	1-1	94.6	95.0	95.0	94.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.2	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	0-0	2-0	128.9	125.1	128.1	127.4
Florida St.	0-0	0-1	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
Louisville	1-0	2-0	117.7	116.6	118.0	117.4
N. Carolina St.	0-0	1-1	113.4	113.1	113.1	113.2
Syracuse	0-0	1-1	106.7	105.1	105.8	105.9
Wake Forest	1-0	2-0	105.1	104.4	104.5	104.6
Boston College	0-1	1-1	100.1	101.2	99.5	100.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	0-0	1-0	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
Virginia Tech	0-0	2-0	116.2	115.8	116.6	116.2
Georgia Tech	0-0	1-1	113.1	110.6	111.1	111.6
Pittsburgh	0-0	1-1	108.8	108.7	108.0	108.5
Duke	0-0	2-0	109.5	108.1	107.9	108.5
N. Carolina	0-1	0-2	109.4	108.1	107.9	108.5
Virginia	0-0	1-1	99.9	99.9	101.3	100.4
ACC Averages			112.5	111.3	111.8	111.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	0-0	2-0	127.7	125.4	128.6	127.2
Oklahoma St.	0-0	2-0	121.6	120.3	123.2	121.7
Kansas St.	0-0	2-0	114.8	114.5	115.3	114.9
T C U	0-0	2-0	114.8	112.1	114.7	113.8
Texas	0-0	1-1	112.0	113.0	112.0	112.4
West Virginia	0-0	1-1	109.1	109.9	109.1	109.4
Iowa State	0-0	1-1	101.7	102.8	102.4	102.3
Texas Tech	0-0	1-0	102.8	102.5	101.6	102.3
Baylor	0-0	0-2	99.3	101.9	99.2	100.1
Kansas	0-0	1-1	88.4	91.6	87.7	89.3
Big 12 Averages			109.2	109.4	109.4	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	1-0	1-1	129.4	126.6	128.7	128.2
Penn St.	0-0	2-0	126.2	124.0	126.9	125.7
Michigan	0-0	2-0	117.1	116.4	116.3	116.6
Maryland	0-0	2-0	105.6	107.7	105.7	106.3
Indiana	0-1	1-1	105.0	105.1	105.4	105.2
Michigan St.	0-0	2-0	98.6	102.0	99.5	100.0
Rutgers	0-0	0-2	95.9	95.9	95.4	95.7
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	2-0	121.1	117.2	119.4	119.3
Iowa	0-0	2-0	111.5	111.2	111.2	111.3
Northwestern	0-0	1-1	109.4	107.5	109.3	108.7
Minnesota	0-0	2-0	108.0	108.0	107.5	107.8
Nebraska	0-0	1-1	104.1	105.7	103.3	104.4
Purdue	0-0	1-1	97.8	99.9	98.6	98.8
Illinois	0-0	2-0	92.0	93.4	90.8	92.1
Big Ten Averages			108.7	108.6	108.4	108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	0-0	1-1	95.7	93.9	97.1	95.6
Middle Tennessee	0-0	1-1	93.5	93.8	94.3	93.9
Old Dominion	0-0	2-0	90.6	93.5	91.1	91.7
Marshall	0-0	1-1	84.5	85.9	85.6	85.4
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-2	83.1	86.4	84.2	84.6
Florida Int’l.	0-0	1-1	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
Charlotte	0-0	0-2	74.5	77.1	74.9	75.5
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	0-0	1-0	93.9	95.6	96.1	95.2
Louisiana Tech	0-0	1-1	87.2	89.1	87.9	88.1
Southern Miss.	0-0	1-1	87.1	88.5	87.2	87.6
N. Texas	0-0	1-1	81.3	82.9	81.2	81.8
Rice	1-0	1-1	79.6	80.7	80.1	80.1
U T E P	0-1	0-2	72.9	77.3	74.0	74.8
UAB	0-0	1-1	64.1	69.3	66.1	66.5
CUSA Averages			83.5	85.4	84.4	84.4
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		1-1	111.2	109.3	111.3	110.6
BYU		1-2	100.9	99.8	101.3	100.6
Army		2-0	96.3	95.9	97.2	96.5
Massachusetts		0-3	83.4	82.6	83.1	83.0
Indep. Averages			97.9	96.9	98.2	97.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (O)	0-0	1-1	92.9	95.3	95.1	94.4
Ohio U	0-0	1-1	89.5	91.4	90.4	90.4
Akron	0-0	1-1	83.7	87.5	83.7	85.0
Buffalo	0-0	0-2	82.5	85.2	84.5	84.1
Kent St.	0-0	1-1	82.9	84.1	83.9	83.6
Bowling Green	0-0	0-2	81.2	81.8	82.1	81.7
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	0-0	2-0	99.4	99.5	101.2	100.0
Western Michigan	0-0	0-2	100.4	97.7	101.8	100.0
Eastern Michigan	0-0	2-0	94.6	94.2	94.5	94.4
Central Michigan	0-0	2-0	91.4	91.8	91.8	91.7
Northern Illinois	0-0	1-1	86.4	86.4	86.6	86.4
Ball St.	0-0	1-1	79.0	81.4	80.6	80.3
MAC Averages			88.7	89.7	89.7	89.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colo. State	0-0	2-1	103.9	102.5	103.8	103.4
Boise St.	0-0	1-1	101.6	99.4	101.0	100.7
Wyoming	0-0	1-1	98.7	96.3	97.5	97.5
Air Force	0-0	1-0	93.3	94.0	93.6	93.6
New Mexico	0-0	1-1	91.7	92.0	92.2	92.0
Utah St.	0-0	1-1	87.6	86.5	86.8	87.0
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	2-0	100.9	101.5	102.1	101.5
Hawaii	0-0	2-1	88.6	90.2	88.6	89.1
U N L V	0-0	1-1	87.5	90.4	87.9	88.6
Fresno St.	0-0	1-1	88.1	86.7	88.2	87.7
Nevada	0-0	0-2	85.3	88.4	87.3	87.0
San Jose St.	0-0	1-2	84.5	83.7	83.8	84.0
MWC Averages			92.6	92.6	92.7	92.7
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	0-0	2-0	128.9	125.3	129.7	128.0
Stanford	0-1	1-1	118.8	116.7	117.9	117.8
Washington St.	0-0	2-0	116.8	114.0	115.9	115.6
Oregon	0-0	2-0	111.1	107.9	110.2	109.7
California	0-0	2-0	99.9	97.3	97.9	98.4
Oregon St.	0-0	1-2	92.8	92.9	91.3	92.3
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	1-0	2-0	122.0	121.3	122.3	121.9
Colorado	0-0	2-0	113.7	111.7	111.5	112.3
U C L A	0-0	2-0	110.2	109.2	109.7	109.7
Utah	0-0	2-0	105.4	107.9	105.7	106.3
Arizona St.	0-0	1-1	100.5	100.9	99.6	100.3
Arizona	0-0	1-1	98.7	97.5	96.6	97.6
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.5	109.0	109.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	0-0	2-0	116.7	117.9	116.8	117.1
Florida	0-0	0-1	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
Tennessee	0-0	2-0	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
Kentucky	0-0	2-0	111.3	109.8	110.8	110.6
Vanderbilt	0-0	2-0	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
S. Carolina	1-0	2-0	108.8	108.0	108.0	108.3
Missouri	0-1	1-1	102.6	99.7	101.3	101.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	0-0	2-0	133.0	128.2	132.0	131.1
Auburn	0-0	1-1	124.0	121.9	123.8	123.2
L S U	0-0	2-0	120.3	118.5	121.0	119.9
Mississippi St.	0-0	2-0	107.0	107.6	107.4	107.3
Arkansas	0-0	1-1	106.7	106.2	106.5	106.5
Ole Miss	0-0	2-0	107.4	106.0	105.8	106.4
Texas A&M	0-0	1-1	105.1	102.7	103.7	103.8
SEC Averages			112.9	111.4	112.2	112.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	0-0	1-1	99.7	96.9	100.2	98.9
Troy	0-0	1-1	93.7	93.9	92.9	93.5
Arkansas St.	0-0	0-1	89.5	91.1	91.2	90.6
N. Mexico St.	0-0	1-1	87.1	84.6	86.6	86.1
UL-Lafayette	0-0	1-1	84.2	85.8	84.0	84.7
S. Alabama	0-0	0-2	83.5	86.4	83.7	84.5
Georgia St.	0-0	0-1	84.5	83.7	84.4	84.2
Idaho	0-0	1-1	82.0	85.0	82.8	83.2
UL-Monroe	0-0	0-1	81.8	82.1	80.3	81.4
Georgia Southern	0-0	0-2	79.9	81.2	79.5	80.2
Coastal Carolina	0-0	1-0	74.8	75.7	76.6	75.7
Texas St.	0-0	1-1	71.5	74.8	70.3	72.2
Sun Belt Averages			84.4	85.1	84.4	84.6

The Conferences Rated

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.9	111.4	112.2	112.2
2	ACC	112.5	111.3	111.8	111.9
3	BIG 12	109.2	109.4	109.4	109.3
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.5	109.0	109.2
5	BIG TEN	108.7	108.6	108.4	108.6
6	AAC	97.6	98.2	98.0	97.9
7	INDEP.	97.9	96.9	98.2	97.7
8	MWC	92.6	92.6	92.7	92.7
9	MAC	88.7	89.7	89.7	89.3
10	Sun Belt	84.4	85.1	84.4	84.6
11	CUSA	83.5	85.4	84.4	84.4

Bowl Projections begin in October

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2017 Southeastern Conference Preview

The old adage goes that a southern gentleman’s three favorite professional sports leagues are, the NFC, the AFC, and the SEC.  Others see SEC football as a religion, and whoever is the head coach at Alabama, as the reigning Moses with direct communication to the Great Bear in the Sky.

For those that have not followed college football more than a few years, this league has been around for almost 85 years, but even before then, the league members were “killing it” on the gridiron.  As far back as 1904, the Crimson Tide played excellent footbal, and under Hall of Fame Coach Wallace Wade, the 1925 Alabama football team won the Southern Conference, the Rose Bowl, and finished 10-0 as the nation’s best team.

What is the top annual college football award? Easy: it’s the Heisman Trophy, named for John Heisman.  Heisman coached at two different schools that would become charter members of the SEC–Georgia Tech and Auburn.

General Robert Neyland led Tennessee from 1926 to 1952 with a couple of breaks to serve in the military.  Neyland was considered the best defensive coach in the history of the game, and one of his Volunteer teams shut out every opponent on the schedule.  Even at what is considered the bottom feeder programs of the league, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, both schools have pasts where they were not only great, they were the best in the nation.  Bear Bryant guided the 1950 Wildcats to an 11-1 season and major upset victory over number one Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl.  Dan McGugin led the Commodores from 1904 to 1934, finishing with a record of 197-55-19 and winning multiple national championships at Vandy (retroactively according to recognized computer polls).  So, when you see the 14 SEC teams fighting it out week after week this year and think that they all of a sudden became the behemoths of the college football world, recall that this is not a new phenomenon.  The SEC is as storied as Major League Baseball.

2017 figures to be another great year in this league with four or five teams capable of making the Playoffs.  It is higher than an average chance that this season could see two SEC teams making the Playoffs.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason.

SEC East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Georgia	138	1,572	6
2	Florida	96	1,526	3
3	Tennessee	3	998	0
4	South Carolina	5	897	1
5	Kentucky	0	869	0
6	Vanderbilt	1	554	1
7	Missouri	0	388	0
SEC West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Alabama	225	1,683	217
2	Auburn	13	1,329	11
3	LSU	4	1,262	3
4	Arkansas	1	796	1
5	Texas A&M	0	722	0
6	Mississippi St.	0	633	0
7	Ole Miss	0	379	0

The PiRate Ratings are a tad different, but you can see there are several highly-regarded teams, as all 14 teams rate above 100.0.

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	116.3	117.6	116.4	116.8
Florida	115.3	114.6	114.6	114.8
Kentucky	111.7	110.2	111.2	111.0
Tennessee	111.4	109.6	109.5	110.2
Vanderbilt	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
S. Carolina	106.4	106.1	105.6	106.0
Missouri	104.7	101.3	103.4	103.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	133.4	128.6	132.4	131.5
Auburn	124.0	121.9	123.9	123.3
L S U	120.3	118.5	121.0	119.9
Arkansas	109.5	109.1	109.5	109.4
Ole Miss	107.6	106.2	106.0	106.6
Texas A&M	107.6	105.2	106.2	106.3
Mississippi St.	104.4	105.1	104.6	104.7
SEC Averages	113.1	111.6	112.4	112.4

And, take a look at our unscientific won-loss predictions and bowl projections.  You will notce that we believe there will be a surprise this year.

Southeastern Conference Projected Standings
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Georgia	6-2	10-3	Orange
Florida	6-2	8-4	Taxslayer
Kentucky	5-3	9-3	Outback
Tennessee	4-4	7-5	Belk
Vanderbilt	3-5	7-5	Music City
South Carolina	3-5	5-7
Missouri	1-7	5-7
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Auburn	7-1	12-1	PLAYOFFS
Alabama	7-1	11-1	PLAYOFFS
LSU	5-3	9-3	Citrus
Arkansas	3-5	7-5	Texas
Texas A&M	3-5	6-6	Liberty
Mississippi St.	2-6	6-6	Birmingham
Ole Miss	1-7	5-7
Auburn to win SEC Championship Game

What the PiRate Ratings think at the start of this season:  Yes, you see that correctly above!  We have Alabama rated number one in the nation to begin the season, but we have Auburn picked as the SEC West Champion.  The two rivals play in Auburn this year, and our preseason belief is that Alabama will enter that game 11-0, while Auburn is 10-1.  We then show Auburn winning the game to take the West Division, while Alabama finished second with an 11-1 record, probably falling to third in the playoff seeding.

Then, we show Auburn winning the SEC Championship, earning the number two playoff seed.  You will see tomorrow that we have only one team picked to go undefeated, and that will be Ohio State (or in other words the winner of the Ohio State-Penn State game).  We previously showed you that we believe USC at 10-2 will knock off 12-0 Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

We then foresee USC sneaking into the #4 seed in the Playoffs, with Ohio State the top-seed.  Do you know what would happen if the seeding goes Ohio State, Auburn, Alabama, and USC?  The rules for the playoff state that the overall number one seed must have the bowl site advantage over the number four seed.  Since the two playoff semifinal games are the Rose and Sugar Bowls, Ohio State could not possibly play USC in the Rose Bowl.  It would make for a very interesting Sugar Bowl matchup between the Pac-12 and Big Ten champions.

But, then look what the Rose Bowl would get.  How about the crazy rematch of Alabama and Auburn in the Rose Bowl?  Can you imagine the insanity of a week in the L.A. area between the fans of the two schools?  In addition, the City of Angels likes its epic productions, and this would be the Rose Bowl for the ages.  Imagine the Tournament of Roses Parade with all the crimson and white and burnt orange and navy.  Yea, Alabama versus War Eagle.  Los Angeles hasn’t seen anything like this since Cecile B. Demille last made movies–the 10 Commandments of Football become the Greatest Show on Earth!

 

Coming tomorrow: It’s here.  The college football season kicks off Saturday, and we will commence with our regular weekly format.  This is our plan for 2017.

1. A weekly college forecast with our PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for all 130 FBS teams, and our spreads for the week’s games.

2. A weekly NFL forecast with the same ratings and spreads

3. A weekly Money Line Parlay edition in which we attempt to go for a third consecutive year where we make a large return on investment (just for fun, as we do not wager actual money on games).4. Returning this year on Friday afternoons: During the last three years, we have been a little too busy to devote time to the retro-football league that we enjoyed performing.  Many of you have asked about this in this time, and we are happy to announce it is coming back.

Many of you reading this may know that Sports Illustrated and Avalon Hill put out a couple of excellent and fun tabletop football games several decades ago.  The college version was called, “Bowl Bound,” and the NFL version was called, “Paydirt.”  The games are no longer made, but many football and math lovers have continued making the teams for this game.  The codes were not that hard to crack, and actually, some of the more advanced analytics experts were able to improve on these games.  What we will use for our recreations is an advanced version of this game.  The teams have updated charts to more closely match what these teams’ results.  We must admit that the originator of these games did not have access to an Internet that did not exist.  Enough information is out there to more accurately estimate a teams’ strengths and weaknesses and then to normalize it so that an average team in 1950 and an average team in 1975 should approach a mean score of 21-21 with both teams winning 50 of 100 games.

Thus, if a team is 12 points better than average in 1950, they are as strong as a team that is 12 points better than average in 1975.

This is how it will work this year.

A. We are using 14 NFL teams from the period between 1950 and 1975, using the rules and schedule of 1965.  Kickoffs will be from the 40 yard line; the goalposts will be on the goal lines and not on the end lines (shouldn’t they be called end posts now?); there will be no 10-yard penalties.  Holding and other current 10-yard penalties will be 15-yard penalties like in the “good ole days;” there will be no overtime for regular season games.

B. We are also using the 10 AFL teams from the period between 1960 and 1975, using the rules, and the schedule from the 1968 season.

C. There will be an NFL Championship Game and AFL Championship Game and then a Super Bowl between the two champions.

Here are the 24 teams that will be used for this event.

NFL East

Cleveland 1950

Dallas 1971

NY Giants 1959

Philadelphia 1960

Pittsburgh 1975

St. Louis 1975

Washington 1972

NFL West

Baltimore 1958

Chicago 1963

Detroit 1954

Green Bay 1962

Los Angeles 1967

Minnesota 1975

San Francisco 1970

AFL East

Boston 1964

Buffalo 1964

Houston 1961

Miami 1972

NY Jets 1968

AFL West

Cincinnati 1973

Denver 1973

Kansas City 1969

Oakland 1967

San Diego 1963

The games will be played using a computer-assisted play-calling system based on the tendencies of the teams in question.  For instance, Miami will have more fullback power runs inside the tackles.  Minnesota will feature more passes with the quarterback moving out of the pocket.  The NY Jets and Oakland will feature more of a vertical passing game, while Cincinnati relies more on the precursor to the West Coast Offense.  On defense, teams like the Rams will be tough to run on and trouble for quarterbacks without strong offensive lines.

The teams will play a 14-game regular season schedule with the champions of each division only making the playoffs–no wildcard teams.

PiRate Ratings Elite 8 Preview

RED-WHITE-BLUE RATINGS

Saturday, March 25
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Gonzaga	Xavier	11	8	3
Kansas	Oregon	6	3	3

 

Sunday, March 26
Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Kentucky	North Carolina	1	-2	-1
Florida	South Carolina	6	7	5

 

PiRate Ratings National Championship Criteria Breakdown of the Elite 8

Gonzaga vs. Xavier

Power Conference: Xavier-Yes, Gonzaga-No    Favors Xavier

Strength of Schedule: Xavier 58.70, Gonzaga 54.02  Favors Xavier by a little

R+T Rating: Gonzaga 20.3, Xavier 14.4  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Scoring Margin: Gonzaga 22.3, Xavier 4.0  Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

FG% Differential: Gonzaga 14.5, Xavier 1.1  Favors Gonzaga by a lot

Road W-L: Gonzaga 20-0, Xavier 12-9   Favors Gonzaga by a good amount

Winning Streaks: Gonzaga 29 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6  Favors Gonzaga by a little

Expected Possessions in this Game: 69 per team  Favors neither team

Outcome: Gonzaga has everything going for it except conference strength and schedule.  If the Bulldogs had the same numbers and played in the Big East, they would have the perfect resume for a national champion.  However, there hasn’t been a national champion from outside a power conference since UNLV won in 1990, and before that, it was Texas Western in 1966.  Of course, non power conference teams have made it to the Final Four numerous times in the past decade.

Criteria Selection: GONZAGA 75  Xavier 70

 

Kansas vs. Oregon

Power Conference: Yes for Both   Favors neither team

Strength of Schedule: Kansas 58.11, Oregon 56.83  Only slightly favors Kansas

R+T Rating: Oregon 14.8,  Kansas 12.6  Only slightly favors Oregon

Scoring Margin: Oregon 13.5, Kansas 12.0  Not much difference

FG% Differential: Oregon 7.7, Kansas 7.5  A Push

Road W-L: Kansas 16-3, Oregon 15-5  This favors Kansas, but it is almost a home game for KU

Winning Streaks: Kansas 18 & 8, Oregon 17 & 8  A Push

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Slightly favors Kansas

Outcome: We have to include two extra criteria here.  Oregon’s stats must be slightly discounted due to the loss of Boucher, and Kansas is playing this game in their favorite venue not named Phog Allen Fieldhouse, earning about two points of home court advantage.   Otherwise, this game would be a tossup, and it still might be rather close.  However, watching what KU did to a quality Purdue team on this court Thursday night, it makes us wonder if any college team can beat Kansas in KC.  Oops!  That happened in the Big 12 Tournament, so think again–except not today.

Criteria Selection: KANSAS 83  Oregon 75

 

Florida vs. South Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both and both in the SEC so this is a third game between these teams.  Both teams won the game on their home floor.

Strength of Schedule: Florida 59.34, South Carolina 56.23  A slight edge to the Gators

R+T Rating: Florida 11.1, South Carolina 10.4  About the same

Scoring Margin: Florida 11.9, South Carolina 8.3  A small edge to the Gators

FG% Differential: Florida 4.3, South Carolina 2.3  A small edge to the Gators

Road W-L: Florida 18-7, South Carolina 10-7, actually about the same as UF played a lot of early neutral site games in their own backyard while their gym was being refurbished

Winning Streaks: Florida 9 & 7, South Carolina 8 & 5

Expected Possessions in this Game: 71  Favors neither team

Outcome: South Carolina’s defense in their Sweet 16 game against Baylor was the best we have seen in a game this late into the Big Dance since Georgetown manhandled Kentucky in 1984, which comes on top of one of the best offensive performances in their win over Duke.  Can the Gamecocks do this to a team that is not just a conference foe, but a rather strong rival?  Florida might also be a tad fatigued coming off the overtime win over Wisconsin, but it helps that the Gators are facing a team they know about without having to look at the film for a long time.  This will be the most exciting game of this round, even more exciting than the big UK-UNC match, because this will have the feel of the 7th game of an NBA playoff series.

Criteria Selection: FLORIDA 67  South Carolina 64

 

Kentucky vs. North Carolina

Power Conference: Yes for both  Before the tourney started, the ACC might have gotten a little extra over the SEC, but with 3 of the Elite 8 from the SEC, it almost makes us think about the opposite

Strength of Schedule: North Carolina 59.00, Kentucky 58.63   A Push

R+T Rating: North Carolina 31.0,  Kentucky 17.1  UNC has the best R+T in NCAA basketball, but Kentucky’s is rather high as well, and in the course of this game, it will not give the Tar Heels a lot of advantage

Scoring Margin: North Carolina 14.7, Kentucky 13.8  Not enough difference to matter

FG% Differential: North Carolina 5.6,  Kentucky 5.2  A Push

Road W-L: Kentucky 17-3, North Carolina 14-7,  A slight edge to the Wildcats

Winning Streaks: Kentucky 14 & 7, North Carolina 13 & 7, While this looks like another push, Kentucky’s 14-game winning streak is ongoing, and there is a definite difference in the Wildcats’ performance in this streak, while Carolina played its best basketball in November and December

Expected Possessions in this Game: 74,  which favors Kentucky just like it did in December

Outcome: We selected Kentucky to run the table and win the National Championship before the NCAA Tournament started, and nothing has changed our beliefs that the Wildcats are the best team in the nation when they want to play up to their potential.  It can be difficult to motivate a stable full of future NBA Lottery picks, but Coach John Calipari is a master psychologist with an ability to coerce through his many talks with his players.  When any of the starters and a couple reserves can go off and score 25 points in a game, it is hard to prepare in advance.  Stop Monk, and someone else has a career night.

Criteria Selection: KENTUCKY 85  North Carolina 73

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Saturday, March 18, 2017 NCAA Tournament Games

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
West Virginia	Notre Dame	6	4	1
Villanova	Wisconsin	8	6	6
Gonzaga	Northwestern	17	10	8
Florida St.	Xavier	8	5	4
Butler	Middle Tennessee	5	4	7
Arizona	Saint Mary’s	-2	-1	1
Florida	Virginia	1	1	1
Purdue	Iowa St.	1	2	1

 

Saturday’s TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:10 PM	CBS	West Virginia	vs.	Notre Dame
2:40 PM	CBS	Villanova	vs.	Wisconsin
5:15 PM	CBS	Gonzaga	vs.	Northwestern
6:10 PM	TNT	Florida St.	vs.	Xavier
7:10 PM	TBS	Butler	vs.	Middle Tennessee
7:45 PM	CBS	Arizona	vs.	Saint Mary’s
8:40 PM	TNT	Florida	vs.	Virginia
9:40 PM	TBS	Purdue	vs.	Iowa St.

 

 

Red-White-Blue Ratings For Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Games

 

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Notre Dame	Princeton	6	6	2
Virginia	UNC-Wilmington	7	9	9
Butler	Winthrop	10	9	10
Gonzaga	South Dakota St.	24	21	15
West Virginia	Bucknell	13	12	11
Florida	East Tennessee St.	10	12	13
Minnesota	Middle Tennessee	2	1	3
Northwestern	Vanderbilt	-1	-1	-5
Maryland	Xavier	-1	-1	-1
Villanova	Mount St. Mary’s	22	23	21
Saint Mary’s	VCU	5	6	4
Purdue	Vermont	9	9	5
Florida St.	Florida Gulf Coast	13	14	11
Wisconsin	Virginia Tech	4	4	4
Arizona	North Dakota	15	15	14
Iowa St.	Nevada	6	6	6

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 18-19, 2017

 

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 18, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Miami (Fla.)	Clemson	3	5	5
North Carolina St.	Notre Dame	-7	-5	-4
Duke	Wake Forest	9	11	10
Louisville	Virginia Tech	14	14	15
Pittsburgh	Florida St.	-1	-5	-4
North Carolina	Virginia	6	4	2
Cincinnati	Tulsa	16	17	14
Houston	SMU	-1	1	-1
Baylor	Kansas	2	2	7
Texas	Kansas St.	-1	1	2
West Virginia	Texas Tech	14	12	9
Iowa St.	TCU	8	8	4
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	14	11	13
Seton Hall	Villanova	-7	-8	-5
Marquette	Xavier	3	3	-1
Iowa	Illinois	6	3	1
Purdue	Michigan St.	13	13	8
Northwestern	Rutgers	13	11	9
Ohio St.	Nebraska	6	7	5
Wichita St.	Northern Iowa	20	17	18
Oregon	Colorado	12	15	18
Washington St.	Arizona St.	-2	-1	3
Washington	Arizona	-10	-10	-9
UCLA	USC	12	12	9
Tennessee	Missouri	14	12	15
Mississippi St.	Florida	-12	-11	-10
Alabama	LSU	12	12	10
Texas A&M	Auburn	4	4	8
Arkansas	Ole Miss	7	7	5
Georgia	Kentucky	-7	-7	-4
Vanderbilt	South Carolina	-2	1	2
Gonzaga	Pacific	34	27	29
BYU	Saint Mary’s	-3	-5	-5

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 19, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Georgia Tech	Syracuse	1	-3	2
Butler	DePaul	19	18	21
Creighton	Georgetown	9	8	5
Wisconsin	Maryland	7	8	4
Minnesota	Michigan	4	1	6
Illinois St.	Loyola (Chi.)	10	8	8
Oregon St.	Utah	-13	-10	-11

PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Gonzaga
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. West Virginia
5. Louisville
6. North Carolina
7. Florida
8. Kentucky
9. Virginia
10. Duke
11. Purdue
12. Florida St.
13. Baylor
14. UCLA
15. Wichita St.
16. Oregon
17. Saint Mary’s
18. SMU
19. Arizona
20. Creighton
21. Wisconsin
22. Oklahoma St.
23. Cincinnati
24. Butler
25. Notre Dame

 

ACC

1. Louisville
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Duke
5. Florida St.
6. Notre Dame
7. Wake Forest
8. Miami (Fla.)
9. Clemson
10. Syracuse
11. Virginia Tech
12. Georgia Tech
13. Pittsburgh
14. North Carolina St.
15. Boston College

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Iowa St.
6. TCU
7. Kansas St.
8. Texas Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Creighton
3. Butler
4. Marquette
5. Xavier
6. Seton Hall
7. Providence
8. Georgetown
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Purdue
2. Wisconsin
3. Maryland
4. Northwestern
5. Minnesota
6. Michigan
7. Indiana
8. Michigan St.
9. Iowa
10. Ohio St.
11. Illinois
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Pac-12

1. UCLA
2. Oregon
3. Arizona
4. California
5. Utah
6. USC
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Washington
10. Arizona St.
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. South Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Alabama
8. Ole Miss
9. Vanderbilt
10. Texas A&M
11. Auburn
12. Mississippi St.
13. Missouri
14. LSU

Friday Night Games You Might Want To Watch

Don’t wait until Saturday to start following basketball games, because there are some interesting Friday night games this week.

Starting at 7 PM EST tonight, tune into ESPN2 to see Valparaiso visit Oakland in a battle of the top two teams in the Horizon League.  Alec Peters may be the best Mid-Major player you have not seen.  Peters averages 23.1 points per game and 10.7 rebounds a game for Valpo, and he is an excellent passer similar to Bill Walton in his UCLA days.

Earlier in the season, Oakland won by 12 at Valpo, never allowing the Crusaders to take a lead in the entire game.  Oakland guard Martez Walker put the game away in the opening minutes of the second half with a salvo of baskets while also being a force on the glass.

 

There are two important Ivy League games tonight.  Columbia visits Harvard in a game the Lions need to show they belong with the top three in the league.  Princeton, Harvard, and Yale are locks to make the four-team Ivy League Tournament, but Columbia still has work to do and has a weekend road set with Harvard and Dartmouth after losing at Penn and Princeton last weekend.  This game will be on ESPN3 at 7 PM EST.  Two more losses this weekend, and Columbia could be tied for fourth rather in fourth by two games over the lower division.

At 8 PM EST on ESPN3, Princeton visits Yale.  If the Tigers can get by the Bulldogs tonight, their chance of wrapping up the top seed in the Ivy League’s first ever tournament will be about 98%, since they already won at Harvard.  PU is riding an 11-game winning streak.

 

At 9 PM EST on ESPN2, Virginia Commonwealth visits Richmond in a big Atlantic 10 game.  VCU is in first place in the league, but the Rams need a resume boost to guarantee a possible at-large bid if they do not earn the automatic invitation.  Richmond has no signature wins, and the Spiders will have to run the table in the A-10 Tournament to get back to the Dance.

 

At 10 PM EST, California travels west across the Bay to take on Stanford at Maples Pavilion in a game that could move the Bears into safe at-large territory if they can take down their rival.  This game will air on FS1.  Coach Cuonzo Martin’s teams tend to become tougher defensively and gel as a team in the second half of the year, and this Bear team is 8-2 in its last 10 games with the two losses coming at Oregon and at Arizona.  Three weeks ago in Berkeley, 6-11 Ivan Rabb was unstoppable, hitting a couple of threes from the top of the key and getting some in-your-face baskets at the rim, as his 25 points destroyed the Cardinal.

 

Saturday’s Best Games

Kansas at Baylor 1 PM EST on CBS

Kentucky at Georgia 6 PM EST on ESPN

TCU at Iowa St. 6 PM EST on ESPNEWS

SMU at Houston 6 PM EST on ESPN2

Xavier at Marquette 8 PM EST on CBSSN

Virginia at North Carolina 8:15 PM EST on ESPN

USC at UCLA 10 PM EST on Pac-12 Network

Saint Mary’s at BYU 10 PM EST on ESPN2

 

Gonzaga 2017 vs. Wichita State 2014

Current undefeated and top-ranked Gonzaga reminds many fans of the 2014 Wichita State team that ran the table and earned the regular season number one ranking prior to entering NCAA Tournament action as the top seed.  That Shocker team beat only one top team that season, winning at Tennessee.  The Vols would go on to make the Sweet 16, before falling to Michigan by a bucket.

This year’s Gonzaga team has a slightly better schedule resume.  The Bulldogs own neutral court victories of Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona in an 8-day period just after Thanksgiving.  The Zags also swept top 20 Saint Mary’s by 23 and 10 points.

Let’s take a look at the Four Factors comparison between the two teams.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

Gonzaga has the clear advantage here.  The Bulldogs current EFG% is 58.1%.  Their regular FG% is 51.6%, and they are hitting 39% of their three-point attempts.  Defensively, GU gives up an EFG% of just 41.7%, for an EFG% margin of 16.4%, the best in the nation.

In 2014, Wichita State was quite good in this factor, but they were not as good as GU this year.  The Shockers’ EFG% was 52.6%, as there were games where they could not hit from outside 10 feet until the last 5-8 minutes of the second half.  Their defensive EFG% was very good at 44.6% for an EFG% margin of 8.0%.  It was not in the top 10 in the nation that year.

 

Turnover Rate

This factor is a wash between the two undefeated teams.  Gonzaga has a current TO rate of 13.8 and a defensive TO rate of 16.1 for a margin of 2.3%

Wichita State had a TO rate of 13.6 and a defensive TO rate of 16.3 for a margin of 2.7%.

 

Rebound Rate

This is where Wichita State had a major advantage.  The Shockers had an Offensive Rebound Rate of 35.0, which was very good, while their Defensive Rebound Rate was an excellent 26.0 for a Rebound Rate margin of 9.0%.  The Shockers did not have a dominant rebounder, but their three guards rebounded like power forwards.

 

Gonzaga has an Offensive Rebound Rate of 31.1 and a Defensive Rebound Rate of 27.0 for a Rebound Rate margin of 4.1.  The Bulldogs have won the battle of the boards in a large majority of their games thanks to the two-headed seven-foot dominators combining for 11 boards a game.  While the Bulldogs are quite good in this factor, Wichita State was dominant.

 

Free Throw Rate

This is the least important of the Four Factors, but it is still important just by being one of the four factors.  Gonzaga has one of the best FT Rate margins in the nation this year, and the reason is that opponents are forced to foul Gonzaga’s big dominating centers inside to prevent easy baskets.

GU’s offensive FT Rate is 22.9, and their defensive FT Rate is 15.3 for a FT Rate margin of 7.6%.  As good as this number is, 2014 Wichita State had one of the best FT Rates of all time.  Their Offensive FT Rate was 28.4, while their Defensive FT Rate was 18.8 for a FT Rate margin of 9.6%!

 

Other Factors

These factors were made under slightly different strengths of schedule.  Gonzaga’s current SOS averages about 2 points per game better than Wichita’s SOS from 2014.  This even includes Wichita’s game against Kentucky, which put an end to the undefeated season in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.

The PiRate R+T ratings for both teams is a wash.  Gonzaga’s current R+T is 20.4, while Wichita State’s was 21.2.  Both teams received ample extra scoring opportunities due to superior rebounding and turnovers (with an emphasis on steals).

There is virtually no difference in quality depth, as both teams could go two deep at every position.

 

Wichita State’s Season Ended

The Shockers won their first NCAA Tournament game by 27 points over 16-seed Cal Poly.  Then they fell by 2 to Kentucky in the next round.  Kentucky won because Wichita State lacked the overall quickness to prevent numerous open shots by the Wildcats on both the perimeter and through penetration.  John Calipari adjusted well at halftime when Wichita State enjoyed a 6-point lead, and a 10-0 UK run in a three-minute stretch at the start of the second half gave Kentucky the lead.  Trailing by two with seven seconds left, Wichita State had a chance to tie or win the game, but Fred Van Vleet’s contested three-pointer from 21 feet out bricked off the backboard.

 

Gonzaga’s Vulnerability

It is difficult for some to understand that an undefeated team with a scoring margin of 23.8 points per game could really be vulnerable, but even the 1972 UCLA Bruins had a few liabilities.  Gonzaga is not unbeatable, as all college teams (even the UConn women’s team) can be defeated, even if it is not that likely.

A good pressure defense team can disrupt the Bulldogs enough to provide an opening to score some cheap baskets off steals and to force GU into foul trouble.  Florida almost had enough in the defensive tank to pull it off, but Gonzaga still won thanks to hot inside-outside shooting from Josh Perkins and Jonathan Williams, while the Bulldog defense stuck to the Gators like glue, forcing UF to shoot just 36.9% from the field and a pitiful 10.5% from behind the arc.

Gonzaga does not always put an opponent away once they have taken a double-digit lead.  They almost saw Iowa State come back from a 15-point halftime deficit and 18-point 2nd half deficit, as Iowa State’s Deonte Burton brought the Cyclones back to within a point with multiple chances to take the lead in the final minute.  ISU had a shot to win at the buzzer and could not get the shot off.  If GU does not help out on defense, a star player can possibly end the Bulldogs’ season in the Big Dance.

Our Take

We believe Gonzaga is clearly better than the 2014 Wichita State team.  If they enter the NCAA Tournament with a 33-0 record (which we believe is about 95% possible), they will obviously be a #1 seed.  The first game against a #16 seed should be no problem, and we cannot see any possible #8 or #9 seed finding a way to beat them two days later.

Once they get to the Sweet 16, there could be some teams capable of beating the Zags, but only if either Gonzaga lays a big egg or the opponent plays lights out.  The possible #4 or #5 seeds that could pose a problem for GU include West Virginia, Cincinnati, SMU, and South Carolina.  All four of these teams can force Gonzaga to turn the ball over and alter their offense to a point where they must shoot poor shots late in the shot clock.

If Gonzaga makes it to the Elite 8, there will be somebody like Louisville, Kentucky, Florida, Virginia, Duke, or North Carolina in their path.  All of these teams can beat Gonzaga half the time, so it would be considered a 50-50 game against any of these teams.

Looking at the Final Four if GU finally makes it to there, we actually do not think the other potential number one seeds are the teams likely to beat the Bulldogs.  Villanova, Kansas, and Baylor will not match up well with GU.  It will be another team, like one of the teams mentioned in the Elite 8 paragraph that will stop the undefeated streak–if it is stopped.

 

Since Indiana last blitzed the field in 1975-76 (and Rutgers made it to the Final Four undefeated), Indiana State in 1979, UNLV in 1991, and Kentucky in 2015, made it to the Final Four unbeaten, and none of the three won the title.

Indiana State was clearly not up to Michigan State’s talent level as Larry Bird could not beat Magic Johnson plus Greg Kelser plus 5 or 6 other really good Spartans.

UNLV met a really good Duke team that probably would not have beaten the Runnin’ Rebels more than 2 times out of 10.  However, the Blue Devils had been dealt a major black eye with the worst ever National Championship Game loss to UNLV the year before, and they came out punching.

Kentucky ran up against a much more poised and mature Wisconsin team, one in which the Badgers players had ma lot more NCAA Tournament experience.  UW played a smart game; they forced Kentucky to beat them by doing something other than one-on-one dribble drives and feeds when faced with double-teams.  The UK players did not come out punching, and their defense was subpar that night.

In Gonzaga’s favor, they are not a one-man team like Indiana State (Carl Nicks was good but not a star).  They will not face an opponent that has a grudge from losing by 30+ points the last time they played, but Florida and Arizona might know a little more about what it will take to win if there is a rematch in the Dance.  The Bulldogs are not an inexperienced team lacking maturity that will fall to a more experienced, more mature team, because Mark Few has too many mature players on this team for that to happen.

If Gonzaga loses in the NCAA Tournament, it will be because the other team has equal or superior talent and plays well enough with that talent to win.  Otherwise, GU will become the next undefeated national champion.

The PiRates say that Gonzaga has a 1 in 12 chance of going 39-0 and winning the national title and maybe a 1 in 11.8 chance of just winning the national title.  We believe they have a 1 in 3 chance of making it to the Final Four.

College Football Ratings & Spreads For December 1-3, 2016

The 2016 football season seemed to have just started a couple weeks ago, but here we are already to Championship Week.  This year’s list of Conference Championship Games are sure to provide excitement, but there may be a little less intrigue in some of the contests.  Of course, just one upset in a game figured to be an easy win for the favorite can make one of these games become monumental.

 

Without further adieu, here is a breakdown of the week’s big games.

Friday

The opening conference title game begins at 7 PM Eastern Time on ESPN2 when Western Michigan and Ohio University square off in Detroit in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game.  The Broncos are in the Cotton Bowl with a win unless Navy wins the AAC by enough to jump WMU in the final playoff rankings.

In the nightcap, Colorado faces Washington in Santa Clara, California, as the host site of the last Super Bowl to decide the Pac-12 Conference Championship.  A UW win would likely allow the Huskies the privilege of playing top-seeded Alabama in the Peach Bowl in the playoff semifinals.  Colorado is likely to receive the Rose Bowl bid, win or lose this game.  9 PM EST on Fox

 

Saturday

all times EST

12 Noon on ABC–The American Athletic Conference Championship Game

Temple at Navy

Navy faces a strange circumstance in that they will play in their league’s conference championship this week and then play rival Army next week.  They could win the AAC title and then lose to Army and miss out on a possible Cotton Bowl bid as the highest-rated Group of 5 team.  Even in the Midshipmen win both games, they might not pass a 13-0 Western Michigan team.

12 Noon on ESPN–The Conference USA Championship Game

Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky

This conference doesn’t actually rank its bowl tie-ins.  They try to guide their member teams to bowls that create the best possible match-ups, so the game’s outcome could have very little effect on the bowls.  These teams played earlier in the year, with LT handing Western its lone conference loss in a 55-52 shootout.  Hilltopper Coach Jeff Brohm could be coaching his final game with the Hilltoppers, as he will be a prime candidate in multiple open jobs among Power 5 leagues.

12:30 PM on Fox–The De Facto Big 12 Championship Game

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma

The winner of this game wins the Big 12 regular season title and most likely earns a trip to the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.  A very convincing Sooner win and losses by Clemson and Washington could give OU a small chance to make the Playoffs, but this league is going to be hurt by not having that 13th game with highly-ranked teams facing off.

4 PM on CBS–The Southeastern Conference Championship Game

Alabama vs. Florida in Georgia Dome in Atlanta

The Crimson Tide basically clinched a berth in the Playoffs, and now they must win one more game to guarantee the top seed and know they will be returning to Atlanta for the Semifinal Round on New Year’s Eve.

Florida is playing for a Sugar Bowl bid only, as they are 8-3 and have no chance to make the Playoffs.  They also have virtually no chance to win this game, but they could make it interesting for a half.  The way the Tide has been playing defense in November, they could possibly pitch a shutout in this game.

 

7:45 PM on ESPN–The Mountain West Conference Championship Game

San Diego State at Wyoming

These two teams squared off two weeks ago in Laramie with Wyoming winning a hard-fought game.  Both teams come into this game off regular season losses.  The winner heads to Las Vegas for bowl season.  If SDSU loses, they could play at home in the Poinsettia Bowl, and if Wyoming loses, they could be headed to the field of Blue to play in the Idaho Potato Bowl.

 

8PM on ABC–The Atlantic Coast Conference Championship

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech in Orlando, Florida

Clemson is playing for a playoff spot, and a win secures their golden ticket.  A Virginia Tech upset would send the Hokies to the Orange Bowl, and CU possibly to the Cotton Bowl.

 

8 PM on Fox–The Big Ten Conference Championship

Wisconsin vs. Penn State at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana

To the winner goes a trip to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl and the chance for their band to play in the greatest parade on Earth.  The loser could be faced with an uninspiring trip to Dallas to face Western Kentucky or Navy in the Cotton Bowl.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	137.5	131.1	137.5	135.4
2	Washington	131.0	123.8	130.4	128.4
3	Ohio St.	127.5	127.1	127.8	127.5
4	Clemson	129.7	123.5	128.9	127.4
5	Michigan	127.4	125.5	127.2	126.7
6	Oklahoma	124.3	122.7	124.1	123.7
7	LSU	124.9	120.4	124.4	123.2
8	USC	124.3	119.4	122.8	122.2
9	Florida St.	122.8	117.1	122.1	120.7
10	Louisville	121.9	118.4	121.7	120.7
11	Auburn	120.5	118.5	120.4	119.8
12	Penn St.	119.1	119.4	118.9	119.1
13	Wisconsin	119.5	117.0	120.2	118.9
14	Virginia Tech	118.5	116.9	118.6	118.0
15	Oklahoma St.	117.5	118.5	117.0	117.7
16	Colorado	119.1	114.7	119.0	117.6
17	Miami	118.4	113.1	118.3	116.6
18	Pittsburgh	117.8	113.8	117.1	116.2
19	Iowa	115.9	113.1	115.8	114.9
20	North Carolina	116.2	110.9	116.0	114.4
21	Washington St.	114.9	112.2	114.4	113.9
22	Western Michigan	113.2	113.0	114.9	113.7
23	Florida	113.6	114.3	112.1	113.3
24	Stanford	114.9	109.3	114.4	112.9
25	Tennessee	113.3	110.9	112.4	112.2
26	West Virginia	112.5	111.8	112.2	112.2
27	Texas A&M	112.9	111.4	112.2	112.2
28	Notre Dame	112.3	109.5	111.4	111.1
29	Utah	112.7	107.8	111.4	110.6
30	Western Kentucky	110.8	108.7	112.2	110.6
31	TCU	110.3	111.7	109.4	110.5
32	Houston	110.0	108.8	111.1	110.0
33	Kansas St.	109.0	111.1	108.9	109.7
34	South Florida	110.0	108.3	110.6	109.6
35	Navy	110.0	108.4	110.2	109.6
36	Arkansas	111.0	107.1	110.1	109.4
37	BYU	110.7	106.5	110.7	109.3
38	Temple	108.9	108.3	109.6	109.0
39	Georgia Tech	110.2	106.4	109.3	108.6
40	Mississippi St.	109.2	107.3	108.0	108.2
41	Georgia	108.3	107.7	107.6	107.9
42	North Carolina St.	108.8	105.2	108.5	107.5
43	Northwestern	108.8	105.4	107.8	107.3
44	Minnesota	107.4	105.8	107.1	106.8
45	Vanderbilt	107.5	104.3	106.4	106.1
46	Nebraska	106.5	104.3	106.1	105.6
47	Memphis	106.1	103.9	105.5	105.2
48	Boise St.	104.5	105.7	105.2	105.1
49	Tulsa	104.5	105.7	105.0	105.1
50	Michigan St.	105.1	104.3	103.9	104.4
51	Texas	104.1	105.7	103.0	104.3
52	San Diego St.	104.0	102.7	105.9	104.2
53	UCLA	105.1	103.2	104.0	104.1
54	Kentucky	104.1	104.2	103.8	104.0
55	Indiana	103.5	104.6	102.9	103.7
56	Ole Miss	105.3	101.6	104.0	103.6
57	Baylor	103.2	103.9	103.1	103.4
58	Toledo	102.5	103.2	103.4	103.0
59	Oregon	103.7	101.7	102.6	102.7
60	Texas Tech	102.2	101.6	101.3	101.7
61	California	103.9	97.7	101.7	101.1
62	Duke	101.3	100.3	100.7	100.8
63	Wake Forest	101.2	99.5	101.3	100.7
64	Appalachian St.	99.7	100.9	101.3	100.6
65	Iowa St.	100.6	100.6	99.6	100.3
66	Missouri	99.9	98.6	98.6	99.1
67	Oregon St.	100.6	96.2	99.5	98.8
68	Boston College	99.5	97.9	98.9	98.8
69	Virginia	99.9	97.3	98.9	98.7
70	Colorado St.	97.8	99.4	98.9	98.7
71	Central Florida	97.7	98.7	98.4	98.3
72	Air Force	97.6	99.2	97.8	98.2
73	South Carolina	98.3	97.8	97.8	98.0
74	Arizona St.	99.0	97.4	97.3	97.9
75	Louisiana Tech	96.4	98.8	98.1	97.8
76	Syracuse	98.9	95.6	97.2	97.3
77	New Mexico	95.2	96.9	96.0	96.1
78	Maryland	95.8	97.8	94.2	95.9
79	Northern Illinois	94.6	95.9	95.5	95.3
80	Arkansas St.	93.3	95.9	95.1	94.8
81	Arizona	95.3	93.0	93.8	94.0
82	Wyoming	93.3	94.0	94.2	93.9
83	Troy	91.7	95.6	93.6	93.7
84	Ohio	91.4	97.1	92.0	93.5
85	Central Michigan	92.5	94.6	92.9	93.3
86	SMU	91.9	91.5	93.9	92.5
87	Cincinnati	92.0	92.8	91.7	92.2
88	Army	89.4	95.8	90.6	91.9
89	Purdue	91.7	90.3	90.5	90.8
90	Old Dominion	89.4	92.4	90.6	90.8
91	Miami (O)	89.4	91.1	90.8	90.4
92	Illinois	91.6	88.8	90.4	90.3
93	UTSA	87.2	92.9	89.6	89.9
94	Utah St.	88.8	91.2	88.6	89.5
95	Middle Tennessee	88.5	90.3	89.0	89.3
96	Nevada	88.2	90.2	88.7	89.1
97	Southern Mississippi	88.4	88.6	88.7	88.6
98	Eastern Michigan	87.6	89.6	88.3	88.5
99	East Carolina	87.6	89.0	87.6	88.1
100	Tulane	86.8	89.9	87.4	88.0
101	Kansas	87.0	91.0	85.1	87.7
102	Bowling Green	86.3	87.4	86.5	86.7
103	Georgia Southern	85.6	86.6	87.1	86.5
104	Idaho	83.8	88.8	85.8	86.1
105	Rutgers	86.8	85.3	85.1	85.8
106	Ball St.	84.7	86.7	85.6	85.7
107	UL-Lafayette	83.0	87.1	84.7	85.0
108	Kent St.	84.0	85.5	84.9	84.8
109	Connecticut	84.9	84.6	84.3	84.6
110	South Alabama	81.9	88.2	82.7	84.3
111	San Jose St.	84.1	84.2	84.0	84.1
112	Akron	81.8	86.9	82.7	83.8
113	UNLV	82.5	85.4	83.1	83.7
114	Florida International	81.2	85.4	81.8	82.8
115	Massachusetts	79.8	85.0	80.6	81.8
116	Georgia St.	79.4	83.6	81.4	81.5
117	Hawaii	80.9	80.8	80.7	80.8
118	Rice	77.8	83.3	78.3	79.8
119	Marshall	77.9	81.4	78.4	79.2
120	Charlotte	76.3	81.9	76.9	78.4
121	North Texas	77.2	80.2	77.6	78.4
122	Fresno St.	77.3	80.6	77.0	78.3
123	Buffalo	76.1	81.9	76.7	78.3
124	Florida Atlantic	75.0	79.5	77.1	77.2
125	UTEP	74.4	79.1	75.7	76.4
126	New Mexico St.	74.1	77.0	75.1	75.4
127	UL-Monroe	70.6	75.6	71.5	72.6
128	Texas St.	62.1	64.8	63.0	63.3

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings–Like the Coaches Poll and Not For Predicting Future Outcomes

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Michigan
5	Wisconsin
6	Washington
7	Penn St.
8	USC
9	Colorado
10	Western Michigan
11	Oklahoma
12	Florida St.
13	Stanford
14	Oklahoma St.
15	LSU
16	Louisville
17	Auburn
18	Florida
19	Washington St.
20	West Virginia
21	South Florida
22	Iowa
23	Houston
24	Navy
25	Boise St.
26	Virginia Tech
27	Pittsburgh
28	Nebraska
29	Miami (Fla)
30	Tennessee
31	Texas A&M
32	Utah
33	Temple
34	North Carolina
35	Tulsa
36	Western Kentucky
37	Minnesota
38	BYU
39	Georgia Tech
40	Kansas St.
41	Appalachian St.
42	Toledo
43	Troy
44	Memphis
45	Georgia
46	Arkansas
47	San Diego St.
48	Northwestern
49	TCU
50	Air Force
51	Kentucky
52	Colorado St.
53	Vanderbilt
54	North Carolina St.
55	Indiana
56	Ole Miss
57	Wyoming
58	California
59	Old Dominion
60	Louisiana Tech
61	New Mexico
62	Mississippi St.
63	Baylor
64	Central Florida
65	Maryland
66	UCLA
67	South Carolina
68	Oregon
69	Notre Dame
70	Boston College
71	Texas
72	Ohio
73	Idaho
74	Wake Forest
75	Arkansas St.
76	Arizona St.
77	Oregon St.
78	Eastern Michigan
79	Middle Tennessee
80	Texas Tech
81	SMU
82	Missouri
83	Duke
84	Michigan St.
85	Syracuse
86	Central Michigan
87	UTSA
88	Army
89	Miami (O)
90	Northern Illinois
91	Iowa St.
92	Arizona
93	Southern Miss.
94	Georgia Southern
95	Hawaii
96	UL-Lafayette
97	South Alabama
98	Illinois
99	Cincinnati
100	Tulane
101	Akron
102	Utah St.
103	Bowling Green
104	Purdue
105	East Carolina
106	Virginia
107	San Jose St.
108	Nevada
109	North Texas
110	UNLV
111	Ball St.
112	UL-Monroe
113	Georgia St.
114	Rutgers
115	Kent St.
116	Kansas
117	Connecticut
118	Charlotte
119	UTEP
120	New Mexico St.
121	Florida Int’l.
122	Marshall
123	Rice
124	Massachusetts
125	Florida Atlantic
126	Texas St.
127	Fresno St.
128	Buffalo

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	110.0	108.3	110.6	109.6
Temple	108.9	108.3	109.6	109.0
Central Florida	97.7	98.7	98.4	98.3
Cincinnati	92.0	92.8	91.7	92.2
East Carolina	87.6	89.0	87.6	88.1
Connecticut	84.9	84.6	84.3	84.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	110.0	108.8	111.1	110.0
Navy	110.0	108.4	110.2	109.6
Memphis	106.1	103.9	105.5	105.2
Tulsa	104.5	105.7	105.0	105.1
SMU	91.9	91.5	93.9	92.5
Tulane	86.8	89.9	87.4	88.0
AAC Averages	99.2	99.2	99.6	99.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	129.7	123.5	128.9	127.4
Florida St.	122.8	117.1	122.1	120.7
Louisville	121.9	118.4	121.7	120.7
North Carolina St.	108.8	105.2	108.5	107.5
Wake Forest	101.2	99.5	101.3	100.7
Boston College	99.5	97.9	98.9	98.8
Syracuse	98.9	95.6	97.2	97.3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	118.5	116.9	118.6	118.0
Miami	118.4	113.1	118.3	116.6
Pittsburgh	117.8	113.8	117.1	116.2
North Carolina	116.2	110.9	116.0	114.4
Georgia Tech	110.2	106.4	109.3	108.6
Duke	101.3	100.3	100.7	100.8
Virginia	99.9	97.3	98.9	98.7
ACC Averages	111.8	108.3	111.2	110.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	124.3	122.7	124.1	123.7
Oklahoma St.	117.5	118.5	117.0	117.7
West Virginia	112.5	111.8	112.2	112.2
TCU	110.3	111.7	109.4	110.5
Kansas St.	109.0	111.1	108.9	109.7
Texas	104.1	105.7	103.0	104.3
Baylor	103.2	103.9	103.1	103.4
Texas Tech	102.2	101.6	101.3	101.7
Iowa St.	100.6	100.6	99.6	100.3
Kansas	87.0	91.0	85.1	87.7
Big 12 Averages	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	127.5	127.1	127.8	127.5
Michigan	127.4	125.5	127.2	126.7
Penn St.	119.1	119.4	118.9	119.1
Michigan St.	105.1	104.3	103.9	104.4
Indiana	103.5	104.6	102.9	103.7
Maryland	95.8	97.8	94.2	95.9
Rutgers	86.8	85.3	85.1	85.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	119.5	117.0	120.2	118.9
Iowa	115.9	113.1	115.8	114.9
Northwestern	108.8	105.4	107.8	107.3
Minnesota	107.4	105.8	107.1	106.8
Nebraska	106.5	104.3	106.1	105.6
Purdue	91.7	90.3	90.5	90.8
Illinois	91.6	88.8	90.4	90.3
Big Ten Averages	107.6	106.4	107.0	107.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	110.8	108.7	112.2	110.6
Old Dominion	89.4	92.4	90.6	90.8
Middle Tennessee	88.5	90.3	89.0	89.3
Florida International	81.2	85.4	81.8	82.8
Marshall	77.9	81.4	78.4	79.2
Charlotte	76.3	81.9	76.9	78.4
Florida Atlantic	75.0	79.5	77.1	77.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	96.4	98.8	98.1	97.8
UTSA	87.2	92.9	89.6	89.9
Southern Mississippi	88.4	88.6	88.7	88.6
Rice	77.8	83.3	78.3	79.8
North Texas	77.2	80.2	77.6	78.4
UTEP	74.4	79.1	75.7	76.4
CUSA Averages	84.7	87.9	85.7	86.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.3	109.5	111.4	111.1
BYU	110.7	106.5	110.7	109.3
Army	89.4	95.8	90.6	91.9
Massachusetts	79.8	85.0	80.6	81.8
Indep. Averages	98.1	99.2	98.3	98.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	91.4	97.1	92.0	93.5
Miami (O)	89.4	91.1	90.8	90.4
Bowling Green	86.3	87.4	86.5	86.7
Kent St.	84.0	85.5	84.9	84.8
Akron	81.8	86.9	82.7	83.8
Buffalo	76.1	81.9	76.7	78.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	113.2	113.0	114.9	113.7
Toledo	102.5	103.2	103.4	103.0
Northern Illinois	94.6	95.9	95.5	95.3
Central Michigan	92.5	94.6	92.9	93.3
Eastern Michigan	87.6	89.6	88.3	88.5
Ball St.	84.7	86.7	85.6	85.7
MAC Averages	90.3	92.8	91.2	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.5	105.7	105.2	105.1
Colorado St.	97.8	99.4	98.9	98.7
Air Force	97.6	99.2	97.8	98.2
New Mexico	95.2	96.9	96.0	96.1
Wyoming	93.3	94.0	94.2	93.9
Utah St.	88.8	91.2	88.6	89.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	104.0	102.7	105.9	104.2
Nevada	88.2	90.2	88.7	89.1
San Jose St.	84.1	84.2	84.0	84.1
UNLV	82.5	85.4	83.1	83.7
Hawaii	80.9	80.8	80.7	80.8
Fresno St.	77.3	80.6	77.0	78.3
MWC Averages	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	131.0	123.8	130.4	128.4
Washington St.	114.9	112.2	114.4	113.9
Stanford	114.9	109.3	114.4	112.9
Oregon	103.7	101.7	102.6	102.7
California	103.9	97.7	101.7	101.1
Oregon St.	100.6	96.2	99.5	98.8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	124.3	119.4	122.8	122.2
Colorado	119.1	114.7	119.0	117.6
Utah	112.7	107.8	111.4	110.6
UCLA	105.1	103.2	104.0	104.1
Arizona St.	99.0	97.4	97.3	97.9
Arizona	95.3	93.0	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Averages	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida	113.6	114.3	112.1	113.3
Tennessee	113.3	110.9	112.4	112.2
Georgia	108.3	107.7	107.6	107.9
Vanderbilt	107.5	104.3	106.4	106.1
Kentucky	104.1	104.2	103.8	104.0
Missouri	99.9	98.6	98.6	99.1
South Carolina	98.3	97.8	97.8	98.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	137.5	131.1	137.5	135.4
LSU	124.9	120.4	124.4	123.2
Auburn	120.5	118.5	120.4	119.8
Texas A&M	112.9	111.4	112.2	112.2
Arkansas	111.0	107.1	110.1	109.4
Mississippi St.	109.2	107.3	108.0	108.2
Ole Miss	105.3	101.6	104.0	103.6
SEC Averages	111.9	109.7	111.1	110.9
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	99.7	100.9	101.3	100.6
Arkansas St.	93.3	95.9	95.1	94.8
Troy	91.7	95.6	93.6	93.7
Georgia Southern	85.6	86.6	87.1	86.5
Idaho	83.8	88.8	85.8	86.1
UL-Lafayette	83.0	87.1	84.7	85.0
South Alabama	81.9	88.2	82.7	84.3
Georgia St.	79.4	83.6	81.4	81.5
New Mexico St.	74.1	77.0	75.1	75.4
UL-Monroe	70.6	75.6	71.5	72.6
Texas St.	62.1	64.8	63.0	63.3
Sun Belt Averages	82.3	85.9	83.8	84.0

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–December 2-3, 2016
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	Kansas St.	4.3	3.6	3.5
Georgia Southern	Troy	-3.6	-6.5	-4.0
Navy	Temple	4.1	3.1	3.6
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	17.4	12.9	17.1
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	7.8	10.2	8.1
South Alabama	New Mexico St.	10.3	13.7	10.1
UL-Monroe	UL-Lafayette	-8.9	-10.0	-11.7
West Virginia	Baylor	12.3	10.9	12.1
Alabama	Florida	23.9	18.8	25.4
Idaho	Georgia St.	7.4	8.2	7.4
Texas St.	Arkansas St.	-28.7	-28.6	-29.6
Wyoming	San Diego St.	-7.7	-5.7	-8.7
Clemson	Virginia Tech	11.2	6.6	10.3
Wisconsin	Penn St.	0.4	-2.4	1.3

 

Washington	Colorado	12.1	9.1	11.4
Western Michigan	Ohio	21.8	15.9	22.9

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	La. Tech
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	{Hawaii}	vs.	Wyoming
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Fla.	vs.	UL-Lafayette
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	vs.	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Sou. Miss.	vs.	Appy St.
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Tulsa	vs.	Ohio
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Houston	vs.	W. Kentucky
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	San Diego St.	vs.	* BYU *
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Boise St.
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	{North Texas}
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Miami (O)	vs.	Arkansas St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Old Dominion	vs.	Air Force
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	{Army}	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Boston College	vs.	{Miss. St.}
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	Vanderbilt	vs.	Wake Forest
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	{S.Alabama}	vs.	UTSA
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	N. Carolina St.	vs.	Temple
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Stanford
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	[Idaho]
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Louisville	vs.	West Virginia
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	vs.	Wash. St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	vs.	S. Carolina
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Georgia
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	vs.	Tennessee
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	N. Carolina	vs.	Utah
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	Colorado St.
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Indiana	vs.	Kentucky
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Michigan
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Florida
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Georgia Tech	vs.	Arkansas
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Washington
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Ohio St.	vs.	Clemson
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	vs.	LSU
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Western Mich.	vs.	Penn St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	vs.	Colorado
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	vs.	Auburn
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Clemson
* Team *	This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team}	Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team]	At-Large Selection

 

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 22-26, 2016

And Down The Stretch They Come
If your favorite team is in a conference with a conference championship game, then this is your team’s final regular season week. If not, then your team may have two more regular season games left. Let’s take a look at each conference to see where the races stand.

American
East: Temple controls its own destiny. If the Owls beat East Carolina in Philly this week, they are the division champs. If Temple loses, then South Florida can become division champs with a win over Central Florida. UCF is bowl eligible.

West: Navy has already clinched the division title regardless of what the Midshipmen do at SMU this week. Oddly, they will play the AAC Championship Game on December 3 and then face Army the week after. Navy is still technically alive for a Cotton Bowl bid should Western Michigan lose, so they cannot accept the Armed Forces Bowl bid just yet.
Houston, Memphis, and Tulsa are bowl eligible, and SMU needs to upset Navy to get to 6-6.

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson has secured the division flag and will advance to the conference championship game. Louisville and Florida State are still alive for an Orange Bowl berth, while Wake Forest is bowl eligible. North Carolina State must upset North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Friday to become bowl eligible, while Boston College stands at 5-6 and would earn bowl eligibility with a win at Wake Forest. However, the Eagles might still receive a bid at 5-7 due to their high position in APR score. Syracuse has a very slim chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 if they win at Pitt in the season finale.

Coastal: Virginia Tech will clinch the division title with a win over Virginia. Should the Hokies fall, then North Carolina can win the title by topping North Carolina St. If both Virginia Tech and UNC lose, even though there could be a three or four-way tie including Pitt and Miami, the Hokies would win the tiebreaker and face Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
Duke is 4-7 and needs to win at Miami to become the top 5-7 team for an alternate bowl bid.

Big 12
The winner of the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game two Saturdays from now takes the Big 12 title. If it is Oklahoma, the Sooners are still alive for a Playoff berth. If it is Okie State, the Cowboys would secure the Sugar Bowl spot. West Virginia, Baylor, and Kansas State are also bowl eligible. Texas at 5-6 must beat TCU this week to become bowl eligible, while TCU must beat either Texas this week or Kansas State the following week to become bowl eligible.

Big Ten
East: If Michigan beats Ohio State, the Wolverines are division champs. If Ohio State wins, then Penn State would be the division champion if they beat Michigan State. If Ohio State wins and Penn State loses, the Buckeyes would be the division champs. Indiana must beat Purdue, and Maryland must take out Rutgers for the Hoosiers and Terrapins to become bowl eligible.

West: Although Iowa and Minnesota can still finish in a multiple-way tie, only Wisconsin or Nebraska can win the division. If UW beat Minnesota, the Badgers are in the conference championship game. If UW loses, and Nebraska wins at Iowa, the Cornhuskers earn the division flag. In addition to Iowa and Minnesota, Northwestern can become bowl eligible if the Wildcats beat Illinois. If the Illini win, the Wildcats still have an excellent chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7, since NU is second to Duke in APR score.

Conference USA
East: Western Kentucky will win the division title with a win at Marshall. If the Hilltoppers lose this game, then Old Dominion would win the flag with a win over Florida International. If both WKU and ODU lose, then WKU would back into the title. Middle Tennessee is also bowl eligible.

West: Louisiana Tech has already clinched the division title. UTSA is bowl eligible and will earn its first ever bowl game. Southern Miss must beat La. Tech to become bowl eligible, while North Texas needs to beat UTEP to become bowl eligible, although the Mean Green could sneak into a bowl at 5-7 due to their high APR score (better than Boston College, Indiana, Maryland, Syracuse).

FBS Independents
Notre Dame is 4-7, and if the Irish upset USC in LA, at 5-7, it is not sure whether the Irish would accept a bowl bid. They would not be guaranteed to get in, as they have the #30 APR score.
BYU has accepted the Poinsettia Bowl bid that was theirs if they became bowl eligible.
Army is 6-5, but the Black Knights are not yet bowl eligible, as two of those wins are against FCS schools. The Cadets must beat Navy to become bowl eligible, but a loss to drop them to 6-6 would almost assuredly still allow the West Pointers to earn an alternate bowl bid, as 6-6 with two FCS wins trumps any 5-7.

Mid-American
East: Ohio U wins the division with a victory over Akron this week. If the Bobcats lose this game, then Miami of Ohio can win the division with a victory over Ball St. If the Redhawks win, they will become the first team to ever go to a bowl after starting a season 0-6. If Ohio wins, Miami will still get a bowl with a win. Akron must beat Ohio to become bowl eligible.
West: Western Michigan is a win over Toledo and over Ohio or Miami from getting to the Cotton Bowl. If the Rockets upset the Broncos, then it will be Toledo heading to the MAC Championship Game. Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan are also bowl eligible.

Mountain West
Mountain: Wyoming was picked to finish last in the division, but a Cowboy win over New Mexico will give them the division title. If the Lobos win, then Boise State can earn the flag again with a win at Air Force. If New Mexico, Wyoming, and Boise State end up in a tie, the Cowboys take the flag in the tiebreaker. Air Force and Colorado State are also bowl eligible.

West: San Diego State clinched the division title some time ago. They could be looking at a rematch with Wyoming. Hawaii can get to 6-7 with a win over UMass this week, and the Rainbow Warriors would rank ahead of all 5-7 teams in the alternate bowl pecking order.

Pac-12
North: The division title will be decided in the Palouse this week in the Apple Cup Game, as Washington State hosts Washington. Stanford is the only other division team that is bowl eligible. Oregon can sneak into a bowl at 5-7 with a win over Oregon State, while California would have a miniscule chance of getting to a bowl at 5-7 with a win over UCLA.

South: If Colorado beats Utah, the Buffs win the division. If Utah wins, then USC takes the flag. Besides these three, Arizona State needs to beat Arizona to become bowl eligible, while UCLA can get into the 5-7 sweepstakes with a win at Cal. The Bruins are rather far back in APR score and would need a lot of 5-6 and 4-7 teams to lose.

Southeastern
East: Florida clinched the division with their win at LSU. Tennessee is still alive for a NY 6 bowl if they beat Vanderbilt, and Florida loses to Florida State. Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina are bowl eligible. Vanderbilt is 5-6, and if the Commodores do not upset Tennessee this week, they can still get into a bowl due to an APR score that ranks just behind Duke and Northwestern and ahead of everybody else in contention.

West: Alabama has already clinched the division regardless of what happens against Auburn. Auburn is already bowl eligible, as is LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. Ole Miss must beat Mississippi State to become bowl eligible.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State lost its first four games, including one to FCS Central Arkansas. Since then, ASU has won six games in a row and has remaining road games against UL-Lafayette and Texas State. The Red Wolves will most likely win both to finish 8-0 in league play, but if ULL upsets ASU, Appalachian State can tie for the league title with a win over New Mexico State this week. Since the two contenders did not play, the conference race would end in a tie. Troy and Idaho are also bowl eligible. South Alabama is 5-5 with games left against Idaho and New Mexico State. The Jaguars must win both to become bowl eligible at 7-5, as they have two FCS wins, but there is a chance the NCAA could grant them leniency for beating Presbyterian after having to relinquish a game against LSU. Still, at 6-6, USA would be headed to a bowl because there will not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill 80 spots. UL-Lafayette must beat Arkansas State and UL-Monroe to become bowl eligible.

Number of Bowl Eligible Teams at Present: 66
Number of Bowl Eligible Teams Projected by PiRate Ratings: 74
Number of non Bowl Eligible Teams Projected to earn bowl bids: 6

Our bowl projections follow at the end of this submission.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	137.5	130.9	137.6	135.3
2	Ohio St.	127.4	127.0	127.7	127.4
3	Michigan	127.5	125.6	127.3	126.8
4	Washington	127.9	121.2	127.2	125.4
5	Clemson	127.4	121.0	126.4	124.9
6	Louisville	125.1	121.1	125.1	123.8
7	Oklahoma	124.0	122.4	123.8	123.4
8	LSU	123.9	119.3	123.3	122.2
9	USC	124.0	119.1	122.5	121.9
10	Auburn	120.3	118.5	120.1	119.6
11	Florida St.	121.8	115.8	121.1	119.6
12	Wisconsin	119.5	117.0	120.2	118.9
13	Colorado	119.3	114.9	119.4	117.9
14	Oklahoma St.	117.2	118.2	116.7	117.4
15	Penn St.	116.5	117.1	116.4	116.7
16	Miami	118.4	112.9	118.3	116.5
17	Pittsburgh	118.1	114.0	117.5	116.5
18	North Carolina	118.4	112.7	118.3	116.5
19	Washington St.	117.3	114.1	116.9	116.1
20	Virginia Tech	116.1	114.7	116.1	115.6
21	Tennessee	116.0	113.6	115.2	114.9
22	Florida	114.6	115.6	113.1	114.4
23	Stanford	115.9	109.6	115.4	113.6
24	Western Michigan	112.7	112.6	114.3	113.2
25	Texas A&M	113.4	112.0	112.8	112.7
26	Iowa	113.1	110.5	112.9	112.2
27	Houston	111.7	110.5	113.1	111.8
28	Notre Dame	112.6	109.8	111.7	111.4
29	Arkansas	112.5	108.2	111.0	110.6
30	Utah	112.5	107.6	111.0	110.4
31	Kansas St.	109.3	111.3	109.4	110.0
32	BYU	111.0	106.5	111.1	109.5
33	West Virginia	109.7	109.2	109.2	109.4
34	South Florida	109.8	107.9	110.3	109.3
35	San Diego St.	108.5	107.2	110.4	108.7
36	Temple	108.7	108.0	109.4	108.7
37	Georgia Tech	110.1	106.2	109.2	108.5
38	Nebraska	109.3	106.9	109.0	108.4
39	TCU	107.9	109.4	106.9	108.1
40	UCLA	108.9	107.1	108.0	108.0
41	Georgia	108.4	107.9	107.7	108.0
42	Ole Miss	109.3	105.6	108.0	107.6
43	Northwestern	108.6	105.2	107.5	107.1
44	Texas	106.8	108.3	105.8	107.0
45	Michigan St.	107.7	106.6	106.4	106.9
46	Minnesota	107.4	105.8	107.1	106.8
47	Western Kentucky	107.0	104.8	108.3	106.7
48	Boise St.	105.8	106.8	106.6	106.4
49	Tulsa	105.6	106.8	106.4	106.3
50	Baylor	105.5	106.3	105.6	105.8
51	Navy	106.2	104.7	106.3	105.8
52	Mississippi St.	106.2	104.3	105.0	105.2
53	North Carolina St.	106.3	103.1	105.9	105.1
54	Indiana	104.5	105.7	104.1	104.8
55	Memphis	105.6	103.4	104.7	104.6
56	Oregon	105.0	103.1	104.0	104.0
57	Toledo	103.0	103.6	104.0	103.5
58	Vanderbilt	104.8	101.6	103.6	103.4
59	Iowa St.	103.4	103.2	102.6	103.1
60	Wake Forest	102.2	100.3	102.5	101.7
61	Arizona St.	102.5	100.9	101.0	101.5
62	Kentucky	101.4	102.0	100.9	101.4
63	Virginia	102.6	99.8	101.7	101.4
64	Duke	101.3	100.5	100.7	100.8
65	Louisiana Tech	99.0	101.0	101.0	100.3
66	Appalachian St.	99.1	100.3	100.7	100.0
67	South Carolina	100.1	99.8	99.8	99.9
68	Texas Tech	100.2	99.5	99.1	99.6
69	Central Florida	97.9	99.1	98.7	98.6
70	Missouri	98.4	97.5	97.7	97.9
71	California	100.8	94.5	98.4	97.9
72	Boston College	98.2	96.8	97.4	97.5
73	Oregon St.	99.3	94.8	98.1	97.4
74	Syracuse	98.6	95.4	96.8	97.0
75	Air Force	96.0	97.8	96.1	96.6
76	Arkansas St.	95.1	97.4	97.0	96.5
77	Wyoming	95.6	95.7	96.6	96.0
78	SMU	95.2	94.7	97.3	95.8
79	Maryland	95.4	97.7	93.6	95.6
80	Northern Illinois	94.5	95.8	95.4	95.2
81	Colorado St.	94.3	95.9	95.4	95.2
82	Central Michigan	93.2	95.2	93.6	94.0
83	New Mexico	92.9	95.2	93.6	93.9
84	Ohio	91.8	97.4	92.5	93.9
85	Troy	91.3	95.4	93.2	93.3
86	Army	89.1	95.5	90.3	91.6
87	Arizona	92.5	90.2	90.8	91.2
88	Cincinnati	90.9	91.7	90.3	91.0
89	Miami (O)	89.9	91.4	91.4	90.9
90	Old Dominion	89.2	92.2	90.4	90.6
91	Illinois	91.8	89.0	90.7	90.5
92	UTSA	86.8	92.6	89.1	89.5
93	Purdue	90.4	88.9	89.0	89.4
94	Utah St.	88.5	91.2	88.2	89.3
95	Middle Tennessee	88.3	89.9	88.5	88.9
96	East Carolina	87.8	89.3	87.8	88.3
97	Eastern Michigan	86.9	89.0	87.6	87.8
98	Connecticut	88.2	87.3	87.6	87.7
99	UNLV	86.1	88.8	86.6	87.2
100	Kansas	86.4	90.5	84.3	87.1
101	Bowling Green	86.6	87.4	86.9	87.0
102	Georgia Southern	85.4	86.4	86.9	86.3
103	Rutgers	87.2	85.4	85.7	86.1
104	Idaho	83.6	88.6	85.6	85.9
105	Southern Mississippi	85.5	86.1	85.5	85.7
106	Nevada	84.6	86.8	85.2	85.6
107	Ball St.	84.2	86.4	85.0	85.2
108	Tulane	83.5	87.2	84.1	84.9
109	Kent St.	84.1	85.6	85.0	84.9
110	South Alabama	82.1	88.4	82.9	84.5
111	San Jose St.	84.2	84.2	84.1	84.2
112	Akron	81.4	86.6	82.2	83.4
113	UL-Lafayette	81.2	85.6	82.8	83.2
114	Florida International	81.4	85.6	82.0	83.0
115	Marshall	81.1	84.7	81.7	82.5
116	North Texas	81.0	83.8	81.5	82.1
117	Massachusetts	79.8	85.3	80.7	81.9
118	Georgia St.	79.2	83.4	81.2	81.3
119	Hawaii	80.9	80.5	80.6	80.7
120	Rice	76.8	83.0	77.3	79.0
121	Charlotte	76.7	82.2	77.4	78.8
122	Fresno St.	77.2	80.6	76.9	78.2
123	Buffalo	75.8	81.9	76.3	78.0
124	Florida Atlantic	75.2	79.9	77.6	77.6
125	New Mexico St.	74.7	77.6	75.7	76.0
126	UTEP	70.9	75.8	72.1	73.0
127	UL-Monroe	70.4	75.4	71.3	72.4
128	Texas St.	62.5	65.0	63.4	63.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	109.8	107.9	110.3	109.3
Temple	108.7	108.0	109.4	108.7
Central Florida	97.9	99.1	98.7	98.6
Cincinnati	90.9	91.7	90.3	91.0
East Carolina	87.8	89.3	87.8	88.3
Connecticut	88.2	87.3	87.6	87.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	111.7	110.5	113.1	111.8
Tulsa	105.6	106.8	106.4	106.3
Navy	106.2	104.7	106.3	105.8
Memphis	105.6	103.4	104.7	104.6
SMU	95.2	94.7	97.3	95.8
Tulane	83.5	87.2	84.1	84.9
AAC Averages	99.3	99.3	99.7	99.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	127.4	121.0	126.4	124.9
Louisville	125.1	121.1	125.1	123.8
Florida St.	121.8	115.8	121.1	119.6
North Carolina St.	106.3	103.1	105.9	105.1
Wake Forest	102.2	100.3	102.5	101.7
Boston College	98.2	96.8	97.4	97.5
Syracuse	98.6	95.4	96.8	97.0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	118.4	112.9	118.3	116.5
Pittsburgh	118.1	114.0	117.5	116.5
North Carolina	118.4	112.7	118.3	116.5
Virginia Tech	116.1	114.7	116.1	115.6
Georgia Tech	110.1	106.2	109.2	108.5
Virginia	102.6	99.8	101.7	101.4
Duke	101.3	100.5	100.7	100.8
ACC Averages	111.7	108.2	111.2	110.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	124.0	122.4	123.8	123.4
Oklahoma St.	117.2	118.2	116.7	117.4
Kansas St.	109.3	111.3	109.4	110.0
West Virginia	109.7	109.2	109.2	109.4
TCU	107.9	109.4	106.9	108.1
Texas	106.8	108.3	105.8	107.0
Baylor	105.5	106.3	105.6	105.8
Iowa St.	103.4	103.2	102.6	103.1
Texas Tech	100.2	99.5	99.1	99.6
Kansas	86.4	90.5	84.3	87.1
Big 12 Averages	107.0	107.9	106.3	107.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	127.4	127.0	127.7	127.4
Michigan	127.5	125.6	127.3	126.8
Penn St.	116.5	117.1	116.4	116.7
Michigan St.	107.7	106.6	106.4	106.9
Indiana	104.5	105.7	104.1	104.8
Maryland	95.4	97.7	93.6	95.6
Rutgers	87.2	85.4	85.7	86.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	119.5	117.0	120.2	118.9
Iowa	113.1	110.5	112.9	112.2
Nebraska	109.3	106.9	109.0	108.4
Northwestern	108.6	105.2	107.5	107.1
Minnesota	107.4	105.8	107.1	106.8
Illinois	91.8	89.0	90.7	90.5
Purdue	90.4	88.9	89.0	89.4
Big Ten Averages	107.6	106.3	107.0	107.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	107.0	104.8	108.3	106.7
Old Dominion	89.2	92.2	90.4	90.6
Middle Tennessee	88.3	89.9	88.5	88.9
Florida International	81.4	85.6	82.0	83.0
Marshall	81.1	84.7	81.7	82.5
Charlotte	76.7	82.2	77.4	78.8
Florida Atlantic	75.2	79.9	77.6	77.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	99.0	101.0	101.0	100.3
UTSA	86.8	92.6	89.1	89.5
Southern Mississippi	85.5	86.1	85.5	85.7
North Texas	81.0	83.8	81.5	82.1
Rice	76.8	83.0	77.3	79.0
UTEP	70.9	75.8	72.1	73.0
CUSA Averages	84.5	87.8	85.6	86.0
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.6	109.8	111.7	111.4
BYU	111.0	106.5	111.1	109.5
Army	89.1	95.5	90.3	91.6
Massachusetts	79.8	85.3	80.7	81.9
Independents Averages	98.1	99.3	98.5	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	91.8	97.4	92.5	93.9
Miami (O)	89.9	91.4	91.4	90.9
Bowling Green	86.6	87.4	86.9	87.0
Kent St.	84.1	85.6	85.0	84.9
Akron	81.4	86.6	82.2	83.4
Buffalo	75.8	81.9	76.3	78.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	112.7	112.6	114.3	113.2
Toledo	103.0	103.6	104.0	103.5
Northern Illinois	94.5	95.8	95.4	95.2
Central Michigan	93.2	95.2	93.6	94.0
Eastern Michigan	86.9	89.0	87.6	87.8
Ball St.	84.2	86.4	85.0	85.2
MAC Averages	90.3	92.8	91.2	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	105.8	106.8	106.6	106.4
Air Force	96.0	97.8	96.1	96.6
Wyoming	95.6	95.7	96.6	96.0
Colorado St.	94.3	95.9	95.4	95.2
New Mexico	92.9	95.2	93.6	93.9
Utah St.	88.5	91.2	88.2	89.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	108.5	107.2	110.4	108.7
UNLV	86.1	88.8	86.6	87.2
Nevada	84.6	86.8	85.2	85.6
San Jose St.	84.2	84.2	84.1	84.2
Hawaii	80.9	80.5	80.6	80.7
Fresno St.	77.2	80.6	76.9	78.2
MWC Averages	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	127.9	121.2	127.2	125.4
Washington St.	117.3	114.1	116.9	116.1
Stanford	115.9	109.6	115.4	113.6
Oregon	105.0	103.1	104.0	104.0
California	100.8	94.5	98.4	97.9
Oregon St.	99.3	94.8	98.1	97.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	124.0	119.1	122.5	121.9
Colorado	119.3	114.9	119.4	117.9
Utah	112.5	107.6	111.0	110.4
UCLA	108.9	107.1	108.0	108.0
Arizona St.	102.5	100.9	101.0	101.5
Arizona	92.5	90.2	90.8	91.2
Pac-12 Averages	110.5	106.5	109.4	108.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	116.0	113.6	115.2	114.9
Florida	114.6	115.6	113.1	114.4
Georgia	108.4	107.9	107.7	108.0
Vanderbilt	104.8	101.6	103.6	103.4
Kentucky	101.4	102.0	100.9	101.4
South Carolina	100.1	99.8	99.8	99.9
Missouri	98.4	97.5	97.7	97.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	137.5	130.9	137.6	135.3
LSU	123.9	119.3	123.3	122.2
Auburn	120.3	118.5	120.1	119.6
Texas A&M	113.4	112.0	112.8	112.7
Arkansas	112.5	108.2	111.0	110.6
Ole Miss	109.3	105.6	108.0	107.6
Mississippi St.	106.2	104.3	105.0	105.2
SEC Averages	111.9	109.8	111.1	110.9
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	99.1	100.3	100.7	100.0
Arkansas St.	95.1	97.4	97.0	96.5
Troy	91.3	95.4	93.2	93.3
Georgia Southern	85.4	86.4	86.9	86.3
Idaho	83.6	88.6	85.6	85.9
South Alabama	82.1	88.4	82.9	84.5
UL-Lafayette	81.2	85.6	82.8	83.2
Georgia St.	79.2	83.4	81.2	81.3
New Mexico St.	74.7	77.6	75.7	76.0
UL-Monroe	70.4	75.4	71.3	72.4
Texas St.	62.5	65.0	63.4	63.6
Sun Belt Averages	82.2	85.8	83.7	83.9

Conference Ratings

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	111.9	109.8	111.1	110.9
2	ACC	111.7	108.2	111.2	110.4
3	Pac-12	110.5	106.5	109.4	108.8
4	Big 12	107.0	107.9	106.3	107.1
5	Big Ten	107.6	106.3	107.0	107.0
6	AAC	99.3	99.3	99.7	99.4
7	Independents	98.1	99.3	98.5	98.6
8	MWC	91.2	92.6	91.7	91.8
9	MAC	90.3	92.8	91.2	91.4
10	CUSA	84.5	87.8	85.6	86.0
11	Sun Belt	82.2	85.8	83.7	83.9

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Michigan
5	Wisconsin
6	Washington
7	Penn St.
8	USC
9	Colorado
10	Western Michigan
11	Oklahoma
12	Louisville
13	Florida St.
14	Auburn
15	Boise St.
16	Florida
17	Nebraska
18	Washington St.
19	Stanford
20	Oklahoma St.
21	Texas A&M
22	Tennessee
23	Houston
24	South Florida
25	LSU
26	West Virginia
27	North Carolina
28	Virginia Tech
29	Pittsburgh
30	Miami (Fla)
31	Navy
32	Utah
33	Iowa
34	Temple
35	San Diego St.
36	Tulsa
37	Arkansas
38	Toledo
39	BYU
40	Minnesota
41	Kansas St.
42	Georgia
43	Western Kentucky
44	Appalachian St.
45	Georgia Tech
46	Ole Miss
47	Troy
48	Wyoming
49	Memphis
50	Louisiana Tech
51	Northwestern
52	Baylor
53	TCU
54	Air Force
55	UCLA
56	Indiana
57	Oregon
58	Colorado St.
59	Kentucky
60	Central Florida
61	Arizona St.
62	Vanderbilt
63	Texas
64	Arkansas St.
65	North Carolina St.
66	Wake Forest
67	South Carolina
68	Old Dominion
69	Notre Dame
70	California
71	New Mexico
72	Mississippi St.
73	Maryland
74	Ohio
75	SMU
76	Idaho
77	Boston College
78	Duke
79	Eastern Michigan
80	Middle Tennessee
81	Oregon St.
82	Texas Tech
83	Michigan St.
84	Syracuse
85	Central Michigan
86	Iowa St.
87	Missouri
88	Army
89	UTSA
90	Miami (O)
91	Northern Illinois
92	South Alabama
93	Illinois
94	Cincinnati
95	Georgia Southern
96	Arizona
97	Akron
98	Utah St.
99	Southern Miss.
100	Hawaii
101	UNLV
102	Virginia
103	North Texas
104	UL-Lafayette
105	East Carolina
106	Tulane
107	Purdue
108	Ball St.
109	Rutgers
110	Bowling Green
111	San Jose St.
112	UL-Monroe
113	Kent St.
114	Georgia St.
115	Connecticut
116	Nevada
117	Kansas
118	Charlotte
119	New Mexico St.
120	Florida Int’l.
121	Marshall
122	Rice
123	Massachusetts
124	Florida Atlantic
125	UTEP
126	Texas St.
127	Fresno St.
128	Buffalo

This Week’s Spreads

November 22-26
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 22
Ohio U	Akron	12.4	12.8	12.3
Miami (O)	Ball St.	8.2	7.5	8.9
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	-3.8	-3.7	-3.5
Thanksgiving Day, November 24
Texas A&M	LSU	-7.5	-4.3	-7.5
Black Friday, November 25
Kent St.	Northern Illinois	-7.9	-7.7	-8.9
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	13.6	11.1	13.9
Memphis	Houston	-3.1	-4.1	-5.4
Bowling Green	Buffalo	13.8	8.5	13.6
Missouri	Arkansas	-11.1	-7.7	-3.3
Washington St.	Washington	-8.1	-4.6	-7.8
Air Force	Boise St.	-6.8	-6.0	-7.5
Texas	TCU	0.9	0.9	0.9
Iowa	Nebraska	6.8	6.6	6.9
Southern Miss.	Louisiana Tech	-13.5	-11.9	-15.5
Western Michigan	Toledo	12.7	12.0	13.3
Texas Tech	Baylor	-2.3	-3.8	-3.5
Tulsa	Cincinnati	17.7	18.1	19.1
Arizona	Arizona St.	-8.0	-8.7	-8.2
Saturday, November 26
Georgia	Georgia Tech	0.3	3.7	0.5
Louisville	Kentucky	25.2	20.6	25.7
Kansas St.	Kansas	24.4	22.3	26.6
Maryland	Rutgers	11.2	15.3	10.9
Ohio St.	Michigan	2.9	4.4	3.4
Indiana	Purdue	16.1	18.8	17.1
Northwestern	Illinois	18.3	17.7	18.3
South Florida	Central Florida	13.9	10.8	13.6
Virginia Tech	Virginia	15.0	16.4	15.9
UL-Lafayette	Arkansas St.	-11.4	-9.3	-11.9
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	22.5	21.6	23.7
Wake Forest	Boston College	7.0	6.5	8.1
Miami (Fla.)	Duke	20.1	15.4	20.6
Old Dominion	Florida Int’l.	10.3	9.1	10.9
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	-4.5	-1.1	-4.7
Ole Miss	Mississippi St.	5.1	3.3	5.0
Alabama	Auburn	19.2	14.4	19.5
USC	Notre Dame	14.4	12.3	13.8
SMU	Navy	-8.0	-7.0	-7.0
Iowa St.	West Virginia	-3.3	-3.0	-3.6
Penn St.	Michigan St.	11.8	13.5	13.0
Wisconsin	Minnesota	14.6	13.7	15.6
Idaho	South Alabama	4.5	3.2	5.7
Texas St.	Troy	-26.3	-27.9	-27.3
New Mexico St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-19.7	-22.0
Connecticut	Tulane	7.7	3.1	6.5
Oregon St.	Oregon	-3.2	-5.8	-3.4
UNLV	Nevada	3.5	4.0	1.4
UTEP	North Texas	-8.1	-6.0	-7.4
Middle Tennessee	Florida Atlantic	16.1	13.0	13.9
Marshall	Western Kentucky	-22.9	-17.1	-23.6
UTSA	Charlotte	13.1	13.4	14.7
California	UCLA	-5.1	-9.6	-6.6
Colorado	Utah	9.8	10.3	11.4
Clemson	South Carolina	29.3	23.2	29.6
Vanderbilt	Tennessee	-10.2	-11.0	-10.6
Temple	East Carolina	23.9	21.7	24.6
Stanford	Rice	42.1	29.6	41.1
Florida St.	Florida	9.2	2.2	10.0
San Diego St.	Colorado St.	17.2	16.3	18.0
New Mexico	Wyoming	0.3	2.5	0.1
BYU	Utah St.	24.5	17.3	24.9
Hawaii	Massachusetts	5.1	-0.8	3.9

Bowl Projections

This week, we project just 74 teams becoming bowl eligible, which means six teams would need to be picked as non bowl-eligible alternates.  Three of those teams could be 6-6 Army, 6-6 South Alabama, and 6-7 Hawaii.  That would leave room for three 5-7 teams.

We have a unique thought this week.  The Armed Forces Bowl could very well need to fill one of its spots with one of these alternates.  Why not take Army, since it is the Armed Forces Bowl?  The opponent would be Navy.  It is out of the ordinary for bowls to have rematch games, but in this case, if Army and Navy play a close game in Baltimore on December 10, why not have a rematch in a bowl?  In the past, LSU and Ole Miss hooked up in the Sugar Bowl after playing a close game in the regular season, as did Nebraska and Oklahoma, when they met again in the Orange Bowl.  The Rose Bowls from past years have seen multiple rematch games.

Here are our projections for this week.  Note that BYU’s bid is already secured.

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	UTSA
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Arizona St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Tulsa	vs.	Appy St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Miami (O)	vs.	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Old Dominion	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	South Florida	vs.	Toledo
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Houston	vs.	W. Kentucky
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Wyoming	vs.	* BYU *
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Boise St.
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Temple	vs.	Ohio U
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	{Army}
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Central Mich.	vs.	Idaho
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Air Force
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Central Florida	vs.	{Vanderbilt}
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	{Boston College}	vs.	Northwestern
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	Ole Miss	vs.	{Oregon}
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Maryland	vs.	Middle Tenn.
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	Wake Forest	vs.	Memphis
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	vs.	Washington St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	{Hawaii}
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Minnesota
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	North Carolina	vs.	Kansas St.
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Indiana	vs.	Stanford
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Auburn
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	{South Alabama}	vs.	Kentucky
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	South Carolina
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	Arkansas
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Utah
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	North Texas	vs.	Colorado St.
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Georgia
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Louisville	vs.	Michigan
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Texas A&M
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Georgia Tech	vs.	LSU
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Oklahoma
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Clemson	vs.	Ohio St.
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Florida
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Western Mich.	vs.	Washington
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	vs.	Colorado
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Tennessee
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Clemson
* Team *	This Team Has Officially Accepted This Bid
{Team}	Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team
[Team]	At-Large Selection

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–November 17-21, 2016

Abbreviated Post today due to time concerns.

Here are our 5 parlay picks for this week

 

November 15-21, 2016

1. College Parlay at +120

Memphis over Cincinnati

Pittsburgh over Duke

South Florida over SMU

2. College Parlay at +318

Virginia Tech over Notre Dame

Central Florida over Tulsa

3. College Parlay at +163

Ole Miss over Vanderbilt

USC over UCLA

Nebraska over Maryland

LSU over Florida

Utah over Oregon

4. NFL Parlay at +132

Indianapolis over Tennessee

Detroit over Jacksonville

5. NFL Parlay at +139

Kansas City over Tampa Bay

Seattle over Philadelphia

N.Y. Giants over Chicago

 

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 8-12, 2016

Thank You For The Kind Words

We have received more than three dozens congratulations tonight from you about our incredible weekend with our Money Line selections.  For those that do not know or follow, our picks (all at better than even money odds) went 6-0 returning a profit of 151%, but as we say every week in our selections “We do not actually wager real money on these games, and we advise you not to use our picks for anything more than secondary research.”  That said, we now show a profit for the season and a return on investment of 12%, which looks a lot better than the stock market this year.  Unfortunately, we cannot say that the stock market selections are as mythical as the money line picks.

 

Decision 2016
This is the big week. There will be change sweeping across America after the results of this week. This is the week where America will tune in to see if the favorite or the underdog wins.

No, we’re not talking politics. This is the first of the big closing weeks to the college football season, and a lot of games have major importance and implications on conference championships and more. Let’s take a look at some of the key games and why this will be a weekend you want to stay inside, enjoy a nice brunch on Saturday morning, an assortment of snackfood, and your beverages of choice as you are entertained from Noon Eastern Time Until past Midnight.

Baylor at Oklahoma
The Sooners hold out very slim hopes of sneaking into the playoffs with two losses, while Baylor is trying to stop a swoon. We predicted Baylor would end the season sinking due to a lack of depth, and we think the Bears will suffer their third consecutive loss. But, we cannot see Oklahoma jumping into the top four. However, the Sooners are in a tight, three-way race for the Big 12 title and the Sugar Bowl bid that would come with it.

South Carolina at Florida and Kentucky at Tennessee
We have grouped these two games together, because the SEC East is now up for grabs between the Gators, Volunteers, and more. If South Carolina continues its late-season surge and upsets the Gators in the Swamp, and if Kentucky can win in Knoxville for the first time in 32 years, then the race will be open for as many as three to five teams to finish in a multiple tie at 4-4. Maybe none of these teams really wants to face Alabama in Atlanta in December.

Tulsa at Navy
At stake in this game is the American Athletic Western Division title. Both teams are 4-1 in league play, and the winner figures to finish 7-1 and play Temple or South Florida in the AAC Championship Game.

UTSA at Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is the prohibitive favorite to win the Conference USA West Division, and this is the Bulldogs’ final obstacle to that path. UTSA has become the surprise team in the division with recent wins over North Texas and Middle Tennessee. The winner of this game will play Western Kentucky in the league championship game.

Appalachian St. at Troy
This game should decide the Sun Belt title, as these are the current top two teams in the league. If the winner of this game runs the table the rest of the way, it is likely the league will have a team that cracks the top 25 at the end of the season.

South Florida at Memphis
USF can still win the AAC East, and Memphis has a teeny tiny path to the AAC West division flag, but these teams are really fighting it out for a better bowl. The league does not slot teams in bowls by where they finish, but instead tries to place teams in bowls that provide better matchups. It’s better to be in Boca Raton, Orlando, or Miami Beach than Birmingham or Ft. Worth, and the sexier bowl sites will go to the teams that finish strong in November.

USC at Washington
The Trojans look like a new team from the one that lost to Stanford and Utah. The Trojans have won five consecutive games, including the lone Pac-12 loss on Colorado. The Trohans have averaged 40 points per game in this stretch. Washington has a tough closing schedule, as they have to win this game, beat Washington State in Pullman, and then beat the Pac-12 South Division winner (most likely Colorado or Utah) in the Pac-12 Championship Game to make it to the playoffs.

New Mexico at Utah St.
The Mountain West’s Mountain Division race is up for grabs, as New Mexico has just one conference loss and remains tied with Boise State, one game behind Wyoming. The Lobos are going bowling for sure, but they might like to venture outside of their home stadium for once. If they keep winning, they get to go to Vegas. Utah State is close to bowl elimination and finishes the season at Nevada and at BYU. This is a must-win game for the Aggies.

This week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	136.1	129.4	136.0	133.8
2	Michigan	131.9	129.4	132.1	131.1
3	Washington	130.8	123.5	130.6	128.3
4	Louisville	129.3	124.7	129.4	127.8
5	Clemson	129.5	122.4	128.6	126.8
6	Ohio St.	125.7	125.0	126.2	125.6
7	LSU	124.6	119.5	124.2	122.8
8	Auburn	122.3	120.0	122.3	121.5
9	Oklahoma	120.2	118.8	119.8	119.6
10	Virginia Tech	118.6	117.3	118.9	118.3
11	North Carolina	119.9	113.6	120.0	117.8
12	USC	118.9	114.2	116.8	116.6
13	Florida St.	118.8	112.6	117.9	116.4
14	Wisconsin	116.6	114.3	117.3	116.1
15	Colorado	117.5	113.1	117.3	116.0
16	Oklahoma St.	115.2	116.3	115.0	115.5
17	Texas A&M	116.2	114.4	115.7	115.4
18	Washington St.	116.4	113.5	116.2	115.4
19	Miami	117.3	111.6	116.8	115.2
20	Tennessee	116.0	113.2	115.2	114.8
21	Penn St.	114.6	115.4	114.3	114.8
22	Western Michigan	113.2	112.5	115.0	113.6
23	Florida	112.2	113.8	110.5	112.2
24	Stanford	114.2	108.3	113.5	112.0
25	Pittsburgh	113.2	109.5	112.2	111.6
26	West Virginia	111.6	110.9	111.0	111.2
27	Texas	110.5	111.6	109.9	110.7
28	TCU	110.3	111.8	109.4	110.5
29	Arkansas	112.4	108.0	110.7	110.4
30	Ole Miss	112.0	107.9	110.7	110.2
31	Houston	109.6	108.5	111.0	109.7
32	Notre Dame	111.2	108.0	109.8	109.7
33	Utah	112.0	106.5	110.4	109.6
34	Baylor	109.3	109.8	109.7	109.6
35	UCLA	110.2	108.6	109.5	109.4
36	BYU	110.5	105.2	110.4	108.7
37	South Florida	109.1	107.3	109.6	108.7
38	Mississippi St.	109.4	107.7	108.6	108.6
39	San Diego St.	108.4	106.8	110.4	108.6
40	Iowa	109.2	107.0	108.7	108.3
41	Nebraska	109.1	106.4	108.8	108.1
42	Northwestern	109.5	105.8	108.5	107.9
43	Georgia	107.8	107.4	106.9	107.4
44	Kansas St.	106.6	108.8	106.5	107.3
45	Temple	106.9	106.1	107.4	106.8
46	Georgia Tech	107.5	103.5	106.2	105.7
47	Western Kentucky	105.5	103.1	106.6	105.1
48	Oregon	105.9	104.0	105.0	105.0
49	Boise St.	104.3	105.5	105.1	105.0
50	Minnesota	105.5	104.4	105.0	105.0
51	Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.9	104.8
52	North Carolina St.	105.3	102.4	104.9	104.2
53	Texas Tech	104.4	103.6	102.9	103.7
54	Toledo	103.1	103.6	103.9	103.5
55	Arizona St.	104.2	103.1	102.8	103.4
56	Indiana	102.9	104.6	102.4	103.3
57	Memphis	104.2	102.3	103.1	103.2
58	Navy	103.7	102.1	103.5	103.1
59	Virginia	103.6	101.0	103.0	102.5
60	Michigan St.	103.3	102.5	101.6	102.5
61	Wake Forest	102.3	100.9	102.8	102.0
62	Duke	102.2	102.0	101.6	101.9
63	Vanderbilt	103.3	99.9	102.2	101.8
64	Kentucky	101.1	102.0	100.5	101.2
65	Appalachian St.	99.6	100.0	101.4	100.3
66	South Carolina	100.1	99.7	99.8	99.9
67	Maryland	99.6	102.2	97.9	99.9
68	California	102.9	96.2	100.5	99.9
69	Syracuse	101.2	97.9	99.6	99.6
70	Louisiana Tech	97.8	99.6	99.7	99.0
71	Iowa St.	99.0	98.5	98.4	98.6
72	Central Florida	97.5	98.8	98.3	98.2
73	Air Force	96.7	98.4	97.1	97.4
74	Missouri	97.5	97.2	96.7	97.2
75	Boston College	97.1	95.9	96.4	96.5
76	Northern Illinois	94.8	96.1	96.1	95.7
77	New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
78	Troy	93.3	98.0	95.3	95.6
79	Cincinnati	95.2	95.4	94.9	95.2
80	Oregon St.	97.1	92.5	95.8	95.1
81	Wyoming	94.6	94.6	95.7	95.0
82	Illinois	95.7	92.5	94.7	94.3
83	Ohio	91.8	97.5	92.6	94.0
84	East Carolina	93.3	94.9	93.5	93.9
85	Arizona	95.1	92.9	93.6	93.9
86	Army	90.9	97.6	92.6	93.7
87	Central Michigan	92.8	94.7	93.1	93.5
88	Colorado St.	92.4	94.2	93.3	93.3
89	Middle Tennessee	92.6	93.7	93.1	93.1
90	Arkansas St.	91.6	93.7	93.4	92.9
91	SMU	91.4	90.9	93.5	92.0
92	Rutgers	92.3	90.1	91.0	91.2
93	Purdue	91.8	90.2	90.5	90.8
94	Georgia Southern	90.0	89.4	91.8	90.4
95	Connecticut	90.6	89.6	90.1	90.1
96	Miami (O)	89.3	90.2	90.8	90.1
97	Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
98	Old Dominion	87.6	90.9	88.4	89.0
99	Southern Mississippi	88.5	88.6	88.8	88.7
100	UTSA	85.5	92.0	87.9	88.5
101	Kent St.	87.4	89.2	88.1	88.3
102	Nevada	85.5	87.8	86.2	86.5
103	UNLV	85.3	88.4	85.4	86.4
104	Eastern Michigan	85.3	87.6	85.6	86.2
105	Ball St.	85.1	87.2	86.1	86.1
106	Tulane	83.3	87.4	83.9	84.9
107	Akron	82.6	88.1	83.7	84.8
108	South Alabama	81.9	88.2	82.7	84.3
109	Georgia St.	82.0	86.6	83.8	84.1
110	Kansas	83.1	88.0	80.6	83.9
111	San Jose St.	83.8	83.8	83.5	83.7
112	Idaho	80.6	86.0	82.5	83.0
113	Massachusetts	80.0	86.3	81.1	82.5
114	North Texas	81.1	84.3	81.7	82.4
115	Hawaii	82.6	81.8	82.4	82.3
116	Marshall	80.7	84.5	81.3	82.2
117	Bowling Green	81.7	82.2	81.7	81.9
118	Florida International	79.4	83.8	79.8	81.0
119	UL-Lafayette	76.9	82.9	78.4	79.4
120	Charlotte	77.1	82.6	77.9	79.2
121	Florida Atlantic	76.0	80.7	78.8	78.5
122	Buffalo	75.8	82.8	76.3	78.3
123	Fresno St.	77.1	80.6	76.8	78.2
124	Rice	75.2	81.9	75.3	77.5
125	UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.6	74.3
126	New Mexico St.	71.8	74.9	72.7	73.1
127	Texas St.	68.3	70.4	69.3	69.3
128	UL-Monroe	66.2	71.4	67.0	68.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	109.1	107.3	109.6	108.7
Temple	106.9	106.1	107.4	106.8
Central Florida	97.5	98.8	98.3	98.2
Cincinnati	95.2	95.4	94.9	95.2
East Carolina	93.3	94.9	93.5	93.9
Connecticut	90.6	89.6	90.1	90.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	109.6	108.5	111.0	109.7
Tulsa	104.1	105.4	104.9	104.8
Memphis	104.2	102.3	103.1	103.2
Navy	103.7	102.1	103.5	103.1
SMU	91.4	90.9	93.5	92.0
Tulane	83.3	87.4	83.9	84.9
AAC Averages	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	129.3	124.7	129.4	127.8
Clemson	129.5	122.4	128.6	126.8
Florida St.	118.8	112.6	117.9	116.4
North Carolina St.	105.3	102.4	104.9	104.2
Wake Forest	102.3	100.9	102.8	102.0
Syracuse	101.2	97.9	99.6	99.6
Boston College	97.1	95.9	96.4	96.5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	118.6	117.3	118.9	118.3
North Carolina	119.9	113.6	120.0	117.8
Miami	117.3	111.6	116.8	115.2
Pittsburgh	113.2	109.5	112.2	111.6
Georgia Tech	107.5	103.5	106.2	105.7
Virginia	103.6	101.0	103.0	102.5
Duke	102.2	102.0	101.6	101.9
ACC Averages	111.8	108.3	111.3	110.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.2	118.8	119.8	119.6
Oklahoma St.	115.2	116.3	115.0	115.5
West Virginia	111.6	110.9	111.0	111.2
Texas	110.5	111.6	109.9	110.7
TCU	110.3	111.8	109.4	110.5
Baylor	109.3	109.8	109.7	109.6
Kansas St.	106.6	108.8	106.5	107.3
Texas Tech	104.4	103.6	102.9	103.7
Iowa St.	99.0	98.5	98.4	98.6
Kansas	83.1	88.0	80.6	83.9
Big 12 Averages	107.0	107.8	106.3	107.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	131.9	129.4	132.1	131.1
Ohio St.	125.7	125.0	126.2	125.6
Penn St.	114.6	115.4	114.3	114.8
Indiana	102.9	104.6	102.4	103.3
Michigan St.	103.3	102.5	101.6	102.5
Maryland	99.6	102.2	97.9	99.9
Rutgers	92.3	90.1	91.0	91.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	116.6	114.3	117.3	116.1
Iowa	109.2	107.0	108.7	108.3
Nebraska	109.1	106.4	108.8	108.1
Northwestern	109.5	105.8	108.5	107.9
Minnesota	105.5	104.4	105.0	105.0
Illinois	95.7	92.5	94.7	94.3
Purdue	91.8	90.2	90.5	90.8
Big Ten Averages	107.7	106.4	107.1	107.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	105.5	103.1	106.6	105.1
Middle Tennessee	92.6	93.7	93.1	93.1
Old Dominion	87.6	90.9	88.4	89.0
Marshall	80.7	84.5	81.3	82.2
Florida International	79.4	83.8	79.8	81.0
Charlotte	77.1	82.6	77.9	79.2
Florida Atlantic	76.0	80.7	78.8	78.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	97.8	99.6	99.7	99.0
Southern Mississippi	88.5	88.6	88.8	88.7
UTSA	85.5	92.0	87.9	88.5
North Texas	81.1	84.3	81.7	82.4
Rice	75.2	81.9	75.3	77.5
UTEP	72.4	76.9	73.6	74.3
CUSA Averages	84.6	87.9	85.6	86.0
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	111.2	108.0	109.8	109.7
BYU	110.5	105.2	110.4	108.7
Army	90.9	97.6	92.6	93.7
Massachusetts	80.0	86.3	81.1	82.5
Independents Averages	98.2	99.3	98.5	98.6
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	91.8	97.5	92.6	94.0
Miami (O)	89.3	90.2	90.8	90.1
Kent St.	87.4	89.2	88.1	88.3
Akron	82.6	88.1	83.7	84.8
Bowling Green	81.7	82.2	81.7	81.9
Buffalo	75.8	82.8	76.3	78.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	113.2	112.5	115.0	113.6
Toledo	103.1	103.6	103.9	103.5
Northern Illinois	94.8	96.1	96.1	95.7
Central Michigan	92.8	94.7	93.1	93.5
Eastern Michigan	85.3	87.6	85.6	86.2
Ball St.	85.1	87.2	86.1	86.1
MAC Averages	90.2	92.7	91.1	91.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	105.5	105.1	105.0
Air Force	96.7	98.4	97.1	97.4
New Mexico	94.6	96.8	95.4	95.6
Wyoming	94.6	94.6	95.7	95.0
Colorado St.	92.4	94.2	93.3	93.3
Utah St.	88.6	91.3	88.3	89.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	108.4	106.8	110.4	108.6
Nevada	85.5	87.8	86.2	86.5
UNLV	85.3	88.4	85.4	86.4
San Jose St.	83.8	83.8	83.5	83.7
Hawaii	82.6	81.8	82.4	82.3
Fresno St.	77.1	80.6	76.8	78.2
MWC Averages	91.2	92.5	91.6	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	130.8	123.5	130.6	128.3
Washington St.	116.4	113.5	116.2	115.4
Stanford	114.2	108.3	113.5	112.0
Oregon	105.9	104.0	105.0	105.0
California	102.9	96.2	100.5	99.9
Oregon St.	97.1	92.5	95.8	95.1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	118.9	114.2	116.8	116.6
Colorado	117.5	113.1	117.3	116.0
Utah	112.0	106.5	110.4	109.6
UCLA	110.2	108.6	109.5	109.4
Arizona St.	104.2	103.1	102.8	103.4
Arizona	95.1	92.9	93.6	93.9
Pac-12 Averages	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	116.0	113.2	115.2	114.8
Florida	112.2	113.8	110.5	112.2
Georgia	107.8	107.4	106.9	107.4
Vanderbilt	103.3	99.9	102.2	101.8
Kentucky	101.1	102.0	100.5	101.2
South Carolina	100.1	99.7	99.8	99.9
Missouri	97.5	97.2	96.7	97.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	136.1	129.4	136.0	133.8
LSU	124.6	119.5	124.2	122.8
Auburn	122.3	120.0	122.3	121.5
Texas A&M	116.2	114.4	115.7	115.4
Arkansas	112.4	108.0	110.7	110.4
Ole Miss	112.0	107.9	110.7	110.2
Mississippi St.	109.4	107.7	108.6	108.6
SEC Averages	112.2	110.0	111.4	111.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	99.6	100.0	101.4	100.3
Troy	93.3	98.0	95.3	95.6
Arkansas St.	91.6	93.7	93.4	92.9
Georgia Southern	90.0	89.4	91.8	90.4
South Alabama	81.9	88.2	82.7	84.3
Georgia St.	82.0	86.6	83.8	84.1
Idaho	80.6	86.0	82.5	83.0
UL-Lafayette	76.9	82.9	78.4	79.4
New Mexico St.	71.8	74.9	72.7	73.1
Texas St.	68.3	70.4	69.3	69.3
UL-Monroe	66.2	71.4	67.0	68.2
Sun Belt Averages	82.0	85.6	83.5	83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.2	110.0	111.4	111.2
2	ACC	111.8	108.3	111.3	110.5
3	Pac-12	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
4	Big Ten	107.7	106.4	107.1	107.1
5	Big 12	107.0	107.8	106.3	107.1
6	AAC	99.1	99.1	99.5	99.2
7	Independents	98.2	99.3	98.5	98.6
8	MWC	91.2	92.5	91.6	91.8
9	MAC	90.2	92.7	91.1	91.3
10	CUSA	84.6	87.9	85.6	86.0
11	Sun Belt	82.0	85.6	83.5	83.7

 

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Michigan
3	Clemson
4	Louisville
5	Washington
6	Ohio St.
7	Wisconsin
8	Auburn
9	Western Michigan
10	Colorado
11	Penn St.
12	Texas A&M
13	Oklahoma
14	Washington St.
15	Florida St.
16	USC
17	Virginia Tech
18	LSU
19	West Virginia
20	Boise St.
21	North Carolina
22	Nebraska
23	Utah
24	Tennessee
25	Florida
26	Stanford
27	Arkansas
28	Houston
29	Oklahoma St.
30	South Florida
31	San Diego St.
32	Tulsa
33	Troy
34	Appalachian St.
35	Minnesota
36	Temple
37	Miami (Fla)
38	BYU
39	Ole Miss
40	Navy
41	Toledo
42	Baylor
43	Wyoming
44	Western Kentucky
45	Pittsburgh
46	Iowa
47	Northwestern
48	Kansas St.
49	Georgia
50	Memphis
51	Arizona St.
52	Texas
53	TCU
54	Louisiana Tech
55	Georgia Tech
56	Wake Forest
57	Kentucky
58	UCLA
59	California
60	Indiana
61	Central Florida
62	Maryland
63	Mississippi St.
64	South Carolina
65	North Carolina St.
66	Air Force
67	Texas Tech
68	Colorado St.
69	Oregon
70	Vanderbilt
71	New Mexico
72	Middle Tennessee
73	Ohio
74	Old Dominion
75	Syracuse
76	Notre Dame
77	Boston College
78	Oregon St.
79	Duke
80	SMU
81	Arkansas St.
82	Idaho
83	Illinois
84	Army
85	Eastern Michigan
86	Georgia Southern
87	Southern Miss.
88	Central Michigan
89	UTSA
90	Akron
91	Cincinnati
92	Michigan St.
93	East Carolina
94	Utah St.
95	Arizona
96	Northern Illinois
97	South Alabama
98	Virginia
99	Missouri
100	Miami (O)
101	Rutgers
102	Hawaii
103	Purdue
104	Kent St.
105	Connecticut
106	Tulane
107	Ball St.
108	North Texas
109	Charlotte
110	Iowa St.
111	UL-Lafayette
112	Georgia St.
113	UNLV
114	San Jose St.
115	Nevada
116	New Mexico St.
117	Florida Int’l.
118	UL-Monroe
119	Massachusetts
120	UTEP
121	Bowling Green
122	Marshall
123	Kansas
124	Buffalo
125	Texas St.
126	Florida Atlantic
127	Fresno St.
128	Rice

 

This Week’s Games–November 8-12
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 8
Ball St.	Eastern Michigan	2.8	2.6	3.5
Kent St.	Western Michigan	-22.8	-20.3	-23.9
Wednesday, November 9
Akron	Bowling Green	2.9	8.9	4.0
Northern Illinois	Toledo	-5.3	-4.5	-4.8
Thursday, November 10
Duke	Northern Carolina	-16.2	-10.1	-16.9
Georgia Southern	UL-Lafayette	15.6	9.0	15.9
Arizona St.	Utah	-4.8	-0.4	-4.6
Friday, November 11
Florida St.	Boston College	24.7	19.7	24.5
Saturday, November 12
Oklahoma	Baylor	13.9	12.0	13.1
Alabama	Mississippi St.	29.7	24.7	30.4
Florida	South Carolina	15.1	17.1	13.7
Tennessee	Kentucky	17.9	14.2	17.7
Central Florida	Cincinnati	5.3	6.4	6.4
East Carolina	SMU	4.9	7.0	3.0
Navy	Tulsa	2.6	-0.3	1.6
Kansas	Iowa St.	-13.4	-8.0	-15.3
Texas	West Virginia	1.9	3.7	1.9
Michigan St.	Rutgers	14.0	15.4	13.6
Indiana	Penn St.	-8.7	-7.8	-8.9
Purdue	Northwestern	-15.2	-13.1	-15.5
Syracuse	North Carolina St.	-1.1	-1.5	-2.3
Buffalo	Miami (O)	-11.0	-4.9	-12.0
Charlotte	Rice	4.4	3.2	5.1
Virginia	Miami (Fla.)	-10.7	-7.6	-10.8
Georgia St.	UL-Monroe	17.8	17.2	18.8
Arkansas St.	New Mexico St.	22.8	21.8	23.7
UNLV	Wyoming	-6.3	-3.2	-7.3
Georgia	Auburn	-12.0	-10.1	-12.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	-2.8	0.3	-2.5
Army (N)	Notre Dame	-20.3	-10.4	-17.2
Clemson	Pittsburgh	19.3	15.9	19.4
Virginia Tech	Georgia Tech	14.1	16.8	15.7
Louisiana Tech	UTSA	15.3	10.6	14.8
Western Kentucky	North Texas	27.4	21.8	27.9
Old Dominion	Southern Miss.	2.1	5.3	2.6
Troy	Appalachian St.	-2.7	1.0	-3.1
Wisconsin	Illinois	23.4	24.3	25.1
Houston	Tulane	29.3	24.1	30.1
Maryland	Ohio St.	-23.1	-19.8	-25.3
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	13.8	15.7	15.1
Texas St.	Idaho	-9.3	-12.6	-10.2
Oregon	Stanford	-5.3	-1.3	-5.5
Florida Atlantic	UTEP	6.6	6.8	8.2
Hawaii	Boise St.	-18.2	-21.2	-19.2
Marshall	Middle Tennessee	-8.9	-6.2	-8.8
Louisville	Wake Forest	30.0	26.8	29.6
Arkansas	LSU	-9.2	-8.5	-10.5
Memphis	South Florida	-1.9	-2.0	-3.5
Nebraska	Minnesota	6.6	5.0	6.8
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	7.2	9.5	8.0
Washington	USC	14.9	12.3	16.8
Iowa	Michigan	-19.7	-19.4	-20.4
UCLA	Oregon St.	16.1	19.1	16.7
Arizona	Colorado	-19	-17.2	-20.7
Air Force	Colorado St.	6	6.4	6.8
Utah St.	New Mexico	-3.0	-2.5	-4.1
Nevada	San Diego St.	-19.9	-16.0	-21.2
Washington St.	California	16.5	20.3	18.7

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	UTSA
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	San Diego St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Fla.	vs.	Ga. Southern
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Miami (Ohio)	vs.	Arkansas St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Old Dominion	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Temple	vs.	Ohio U
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	La. Tech
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Wyoming	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Colorado St.
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Houston	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	TCU
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Akron	vs.	Appy St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	Boise St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Tulsa	vs.	{Hawaii}
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	{Army}	vs.	Northwestern
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	S. Carolina	vs.	[Charlotte]
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Idaho]	vs.	W. Kentucky
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	South Florida	vs.	Georgia Tech
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Utah
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	California
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	N. Carolina	vs.	West Virginia
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Indiana	vs.	USC
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Tennessee
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	{S.Alabama}	vs.	Ole Miss
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Georgia
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Wash. St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	LSU
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Wake Forest	vs.	Stanford
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	North Texas	vs.	Air Force
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Iowa	vs.	Kentucky
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Auburn
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Arkansas
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Clemson	vs.	Michigan
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Louisville
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Florida
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Washington	vs.	Western Mich.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	vs.	Colorado
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	vs.	Texas A&M
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Michigan
[Team]	At-Large Selection
{Team}	Alternate Selection of non-bowl eligible team

We have been asked to explain what is the difference between at-large and alternate selections.

At-large selections are bowl-eligible teams from conferences that have more teams than allotted bowls.  For instance if the American Athletic Conference has eight bowl tie-ins, but they have nine bowl eligible teams, one of the nine would be an at-large team in another bowl that does not have a team due to a league not having enough bowl eligible teams.

Alternate teams are those that must be used to fill bowls even though they are not actually bowl-eligible.  There are multiple ways a team can be considered an alternate choice, and it goes according to this hieracrchy.

1. 6-6 teams that beat two FCS opponents.  Only one FCS win is allowed to count toward bowl eligibility.  Army and South Alabama both could finish 6-6 with two wins over FCS opponents.
2. 6-7 teams that won their division and lost in their conference championship game.  There is little to no chance that such an event will happen this year, but there is a very slim chance that a 6-6 team could win the SEC East and then lose to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
3. 6-7 teams that played 13 regular season games.  Hawaii is likely to be 6-7 this year.
4. 5-7 teams with the highest APR Scores.  If there are still openings needed after the above three criteria have been applied, the teams with the highest APR scores will receive what’s left.  Last year, three schools with 5-7 records received bowl bids (all three won their bowls).

Here are the list of possible 5-7 teams ranked in order of highest APR Scores

Duke

Vanderbilt

Army

Georgia Tech

North Texas

Boston College

Missouri

Utah St.

Syracuse

UCLA

Mississippi St.

 

The Alternate teams will choose which bowls they wish to attend in order of the hierarchy herein.  Thus, the lowest team in the hierarchy will get the last bowl that is left.