PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for December 29-30, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Teams in Power Conferences

Saturday

Home Team	Visitor	Spread
North Carolina	Davidson	6.2
Notre Dame	Coppin St.	28.8
Louisville	Kentucky	-3.4
Wake Forest	Gardner-Webb	3.3
Syracuse	St. Bonaventure	11.8
Pittsburgh	Colgate	5.4
Miami (Fla.)	Campbell	12.4
Kansas	Eastern Michigan	17.1
Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M–C.C.	18.9
Baylor	New Orleans	14.5
Kansas St.	George Mason	17.0
Ohio St.	High Point	15.3
Penn St.	Md.-Baltimore Co.	6.0
Michigan St.	Northern Illinois	23.3
Illinois	Florida Atlantic	11.9
Rutgers	Maine	10.4
Purdue	Belmont	9.7
Western Kentucky	Wisconsin	-6.6
Maryland	Radford	8.3
Iowa	Bryant	26.6
Utah	Nevada	-10.1
Washington St.	Santa Clara	6.7
Arizona St.	Princeton	14.7
UCLA	Liberty	6.0
Boise St.	Oregon	2.7
California	Seattle	-0.2
Oregon St.	Central Connecticut	16.5
Stanford	Long Beach St.	9.9
Mississippi St.	BYU	6.8
Tennessee	Tennessee Tech	28.0
Vanderbilt	Tennessee St.	15.9
Missouri	Morehead St.	16.5
Ole Miss	Florida Gulf Coast	5.6
Texas A&M	Texas Southern	12.7
Florida	Butler	3.4
Auburn	North Florida	19.6

 

Sunday

Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Michigan	Binghamton	23.1
West Virginia	Lehigh	13.0
Clemson	Lipscomb	9.9
Minnesota	Mount St. Mary’s	15.2
Northwestern	Columbia	13.9
Georgia	U Mass	6.0
USC	UC-Davis	12.3

 

Basketball Ratings Explanation

We are very happy to have your patronage here at the PiRate Ratings, and we know that since the end of last basketball season, we have seen more than one thousand new readers discover us through other sites.  We really appreciate those of you that have sent us comments saying that you posted our site on sports forums.  We need to explain how we calculate our basketball ratings, which are entirely different from how we calculate our football ratings.

First, our basketball ratings are 100% derived from the “Four Factors” and Schedule Strength.  Thus, it takes a long time to input the ratings for each team, since all 353 teams’ statistics must be updated after every game played by every Division 1 team.  We can only do this late Thursday Night in order to publish on Friday.  You will only see us submit games involving Power Conference teams that are playing Division 1 opponents on Saturday or Sunday every week, until March.  We will occasionally add top Mid-Majors like Gonzaga, Buffalo, and Nevada, as long as they are in the top 25 or close to it and look like at-large candidates for the NCAA Tournament if they don’t get the automatic bid.

What are the Four Factors?

Those of you that know us know that our PiRate Captain is a baseball sabermetrician and former Major League analyticist and scout.  He likes to see the Four Factors as something similar to Weighted On-Base Average and WAR in baseball.  Since baseball players’ stats can be calculated to figure out expected wins, he believes that similar basketball data can be calculated to determine the winner in college basketball games.  He goes one step further, trying to find an algorithm that also estimates the pointspread.  This is an ongoing experiment in its fifth year, with the algorithm being tweaked a little each year, much like the wOBA numbers adjust every year in baseball.

Here are the Four Factors for College Basketball as Used by the PiRate Captain.  Because they apply to offense and defense, they are really like Eight Factors.

1.) Effective Field Goal Percentage 

This is a measure that combines two-point and three-point shooting percentages into one.  Since a made three-point basket is the same as 1.5 made two-point baskets, the easy calculation for this stat is. (FG + 0.5*3pt))/FGA

where FG is all field goals made, 3 pt is three-pointers made, and FGA is all field goals attempted.

If your team makes 28 baskets in a game, with 8 of those being 3-pointers and attempts 60 shots in a game, their EFG% is: (28+(0.5*8)/60, which equals 53.3%

 

2.) Turnover % 

This measures the percentage of possessions in which a team turns the ball over without a shot and conversely forces the opponent to turn the ball over without a shot.  The PiRates add a little bit of a twist to how most analytics folks use this one.  We will explain the R+T factor later, but for now consider that a steal is a more important turnover than all others, because many times a steal leads to easy points and possible fouls.

The TOV% is simply Turnovers per 100 possessions.  So that if a team has 70 possessions in a game and turns the ball over 14 times, their TOV% would be (14/70*100) = 20.0%

College Basketball Possessions are now kept for all games, but if you don’t have access to these stats, you can estimate possessions per game by the following formula used only for college and not NBA (slightly different formula for the pros)

FGA + (0.465* FTA) – Off Rebounds + Turnovers

 

3.) Offensive Rebounding Percentage

This is actually both offensive and defensive rebounding margin, since opponents’ offensive rebounding margin is the other teams’ defensive rebounding margin.

You calculate this for both teams by this easy formula: (100* Off. Rebounds) / (Off. Rebounds + other team’s Def. Rebounds)

If your team has 15 offensive rebounds, and the other team has 25 defensive rebounds, your team’s Off. Reb % is (100*15)/(15+25) =37.5%

 

4.) Free Throw Rate

The “experts” disagree on how to calculate this rating.  Some of the most famous people that release advanced metric cannot come to a consensus.  There is a problem with free throws to begin with, because late in games, the trailing team deliberately fouls the leading team, thus giving the most likely winner more chances at going to the foul line than the actual game flow indicates.  Earlier this year, a team we watched on TV had attempted 12 foul shots in the first 34 minutes of the game, and instead of being ahead by 20 points (which they should have been), they only led by 5 with 6 minutes to play.  The underdog team tried to play pressure defense but could not force turnovers, so they began fouling and fouling and fouling.  Meanwhile, they bricked a lot of 3-pointers at their end, and the final outcome was 17 points.  The winning team with just 12 FTA in the first 34 minutes shot 13 more in the final 6 minutes.

This is the type of thing that gives this part of the rating too much weighting, and we tend to lower the importance of this rating for that purpose.  Over the course of NCAA Basketball history, the top foul shooting teams have tended to underperform in the Big Dance, while the National Champions have tended to be a little below normal in free throw percentage but above normal in drawing fouls, again mostly because the other team is forced to foul in the final minutes.

This is the formula we use at the PiRate Ratings: FT Made per 100 possession.

We hope this explains a little about how we calculate our ratings.  Obviously, to explain our algorithm would be like giving you the formula for Coca-Cola or Pepsi.  Plus, it would be too difficult to explain how we back-tested numbers until we came up with the exact formula, which is tweaked a little every season.

Our Plan For 2019

We plan to issue two posts per week until the start of conference tournament play in late February.  Our Monday or Tuesday publication will be our most popular feature of the entire site.  We have a baker’s dozen of accurate bracketologists (some of whom have their own sites) that send us their weekly bracketology.  We call these guys (and one gal) our Bracket Gurus.  This will be the Gurus’ third year doing this for us.  In 2017, they went 68 for 68 correctly picking every team chosen for the field.  In 2018, they went 67 for 68, so in two years, they have picked 135 out of the 136 teams.  The famous bracketologists on the big national sites average about 65 1/2 correct every year, so our Gurus are better than the leading brands.

We will issue a Friday afternoon publication like this one.  The regular menu for Friday is to post the spreads of the power conference team games for the weekend, our PiRate Ratings rankings, and then something we hope you find of interest.  In the past, we have spotlighted low and mid-major teams that might have a chance to create a little havoc in March; featured the up and coming assistant coaches that we believe will become successful head coaches; and written a little about something interesting in basketball history.  Our captain has been watching college basketball since the 1963-64 season, and he can describe the UCLA-Duke championship game like he is watching live today.  It didn’t hurt that he was a left-handed point guard who thought Gail Goodrich was an older version of him until Louie Dampier starred for Kentucky once Goodrich graduated.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk	Team	PiRate Rating
1	Duke	122.9
2	Gonzaga	118.5
3	Virginia	117.8
4	Michigan St.	116.3
5	Virginia Tech	115.9
6	Texas Tech	115.2
7	Nevada	115.2
8	Tennessee	115.0
9	Auburn	114.7
10	Wisconsin	114.5
11	Iowa St.	113.7
12	Florida St.	113.4
13	Kansas St.	113.2
14	Villanova	113.0
15	Purdue	113.0
16	Oklahoma	112.6
17	Indiana	112.6
18	Cincinnati	112.0
19	TCU	111.9
20	Buffalo	111.6
21	Florida	111.5
22	Butler	111.1
23	Iowa	111.0
24	Kansas	110.8
25	Creighton	110.4
26	Houston	110.3
27	Mississippi St.	110.2
28	Clemson	110.1
29	Syracuse	110.0
30	Arizona St.	109.8
31	Texas	109.6
32	Michigan	109.6
33	UCF	109.5
34	Kentucky	109.4
35	San Francisco	109.1
36	Saint Mary’s	109.1
37	St. John’s	109.0
38	Utah St.	109.0
39	West Virginia	108.7
40	Fresno St.	108.3
41	Notre Dame	108.3
42	Arizona	108.0
43	Seton Hall	107.9
44	Oklahoma St.	107.9
45	North Carolina	107.8
46	Wofford	107.8
47	Nebraska	107.8
48	Northwestern	107.8
49	Washington	107.7
50	Ohio St.	107.6
51	Alabama	107.4
52	Maryland	107.3
53	Vanderbilt	107.3
54	Baylor	107.2
55	Providence	107.1
56	Toledo	107.1
57	Missouri	107.0
58	Temple	107.0
59	Oregon St.	106.8
60	Belmont	106.8
61	UCLA	106.7
62	Northern Colorado	106.7
63	North Carolina St.	106.6
64	Texas A&M	106.6
65	BYU	106.4
66	VCU	106.4
67	Xavier	106.3
68	San Diego St.	106.3
69	Dayton	106.2
70	Colorado	106.2
71	Marshall	106.0
72	Louisiana	106.0
73	Penn	105.9
74	Loyola Marymount	105.8
75	Connecticut	105.7
76	Old Dominion	105.7
77	Marquette	105.6
78	Ball St.	105.6
79	Davidson	105.6
80	USC	105.6
81	San Diego	105.5
82	SMU	105.5
83	South Dakota St.	105.4
84	Yale	105.3
85	New Mexico	105.3
86	Miami FL	105.0
87	Furman	104.9
88	Boston College	104.9
89	UC Irvine	104.9
90	Hofstra	104.8
91	Georgia	104.8
92	Georgia Tech	104.7
93	Rutgers	104.6
94	Penn St.	104.5
95	Illinois	104.5
96	Rhode Island	104.4
97	Western Kentucky	104.4
98	East Tennessee St.	104.3
99	Harvard	104.3
100	New Mexico St.	104.3
101	Lipscomb	104.2
102	Saint Joseph’s	104.1
103	Georgia St.	104.1
104	Saint Louis	104.1
105	Georgetown	104.1
106	DePaul	104.1
107	Miami OH	104.1
108	Akron	104.0
109	Vermont	104.0
110	Charleston	104.0
111	Northeastern	103.8
112	Loyola Chicago	103.7
113	Liberty	103.7
114	Louisville	103.5
115	Wichita St.	103.5
116	Stanford	103.4
117	LSU	103.2
118	South Carolina	103.2
119	Tulsa	103.0
120	Grand Canyon	102.8
121	Texas St.	102.8
122	Middle Tennessee	102.6
123	Minnesota	102.6
124	Oregon	102.6
125	Southern Illinois	102.6
126	Radford	102.5
127	Georgia Southern	102.4
128	Boise St.	102.3
129	Austin Peay	102.2
130	Drake	102.2
131	Pittsburgh	101.9
132	Massachusetts	101.8
133	Utah Valley	101.7
134	Wright St.	101.7
135	Southern Miss	101.7
136	UCSB	101.6
137	Bucknell	101.6
138	Utah	101.6
139	UNLV	101.5
140	Pacific	101.5
141	UMBC	101.5
142	Rider	101.4
143	Northern Kentucky	101.3
144	St. Bonaventure	101.2
145	Mercer	101.1
146	Wake Forest	101.1
147	Indiana St.	101.0
148	Louisiana Monroe	100.9
149	Gardner Webb	100.8
150	Missouri St.	100.7
151	Brown	100.7
152	Pepperdine	100.6
153	Murray St.	100.6
154	Seattle	100.6
155	Winthrop	100.5
156	LIU Brooklyn	100.4
157	Arkansas	100.1
158	Duquesne	100.1
159	The Citadel	100.0
160	Colgate	100.0
161	Richmond	100.0
162	North Texas	100.0
163	Holy Cross	99.9
164	Louisiana Tech	99.9
165	Bradley	99.8
166	Washington St.	99.8
167	Weber St.	99.8
168	Memphis	99.7
169	Troy	99.7
170	Lehigh	99.7
171	George Mason	99.7
172	UNC Wilmington	99.6
173	Stony Brook	99.6
174	South Florida	99.6
175	Central Michigan	99.6
176	Valparaiso	99.6
177	Samford	99.5
178	Green Bay	99.4
179	Illinois St.	99.4
180	Jacksonville St.	99.3
181	Montana	99.3
182	Cal St. Fullerton	99.2
183	UAB	99.1
184	Abilene Christian	99.1
185	Appalachian St.	99.0
186	Coastal Carolina	98.9
187	North Dakota St.	98.7
188	Ohio	98.6
189	Mississippi	98.6
190	Princeton	98.6
191	UNC Greensboro	98.5
192	Little Rock	98.4
193	South Dakota	98.4
194	Fordham	98.3
195	Bowling Green	98.3
196	IUPUI	98.3
197	Stephen F. Austin	98.2
198	Northern Iowa	98.1
199	Evansville	98.1
200	Hawaii	98.1
201	Purdue Fort Wayne	98.1
202	North Florida	98.1
203	Loyola MD	98.1
204	Omaha	98.0
205	American	98.0
206	South Alabama	97.8
207	NJIT	97.7
208	Portland	97.7
209	Eastern Michigan	97.7
210	William & Mary	97.6
211	Iona	97.5
212	Dartmouth	97.5
213	Western Michigan	97.5
214	Boston University	97.5
215	California	97.4
216	La Salle	97.3
217	Northern Arizona	97.2
218	Maine	97.2
219	Navy	97.2
220	Hartford	97.0
221	Illinois Chicago	97.0
222	UTSA	97.0
223	Canisius	97.0
224	Oral Roberts	97.0
225	St. Francis PA	97.0
226	Columbia	96.9
227	Kent St.	96.8
228	FIU	96.8
229	Arkansas Pine Bluff	96.7
230	UNC Asheville	96.6
231	Cal Baptist	96.5
232	Sacramento St.	96.5
233	Montana St.	96.5
234	Northern Illinois	96.5
235	Long Beach St.	96.5
236	Hampton	96.4
237	Texas Southern	96.4
238	Delaware	96.4
239	Kennesaw St.	96.4
240	UC Davis	96.3
241	Santa Clara	96.1
242	Florida Atlantic	96.1
243	Colorado St.	96.1
244	UTEP	96.1
245	Florida Gulf Coast	96.0
246	Lafayette	95.9
247	High Point	95.8
248	Fairfield	95.7
249	New Orleans	95.7
250	Charleston Southern	95.7
251	Cornell	95.7
252	Campbell	95.6
253	Wagner	95.5
254	Cleveland St.	95.5
255	Cal St. Bakersfield	95.5
256	Southern Utah	95.5
257	Norfolk St.	95.5
258	Milwaukee	95.4
259	Fairleigh Dickinson	95.4
260	Western Illinois	95.3
261	UMKC	95.3
262	Quinnipiac	95.1
263	Wyoming	95.0
264	Towson	95.0
265	Presbyterian	95.0
266	Idaho St.	94.9
267	UT Arlington	94.8
268	Tulane	94.7
269	Lamar	94.7
270	Eastern Kentucky	94.7
271	Niagara	94.7
272	Army	94.7
273	Drexel	94.6
274	Sam Houston St.	94.6
275	Monmouth	94.6
276	Mississippi Valley St.	94.5
277	Nicholls St.	94.4
278	James Madison	94.4
279	Prairie View A&M	94.4
280	Marist	94.4
281	Air Force	94.3
282	Eastern Washington	94.3
283	UT Rio Grande Valley	94.2
284	Northwestern St.	94.2
285	East Carolina	94.2
286	St. Francis NY	94.2
287	Siena	94.2
288	Cal St. Northridge	94.1
289	Robert Morris	94.1
290	George Washington	94.1
291	SEMO	94.0
292	Grambling St.	94.0
293	Central Arkansas	94.0
294	Sacred Heart	94.0
295	Albany	93.9
296	Central Connecticut	93.8
297	Houston Baptist	93.8
298	Saint Peter’s	93.8
299	Portland St.	93.8
300	Detroit	93.7
301	Arkansas St.	93.7
302	Longwood	93.6
303	Morehead St.	93.5
304	Denver	93.4
305	McNeese St.	93.1
306	Howard	93.0
307	North Dakota	93.0
308	Tennessee St.	92.9
309	Chattanooga	92.9
310	UC Riverside	92.9
311	Eastern Illinois	92.8
312	North Carolina Central	92.7
313	UT-Martin	92.6
314	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	92.5
315	Oakland	92.5
316	Morgan St.	92.4
317	Cal Poly	92.3
318	Jackson St.	92.2
319	Jacksonville	92.0
320	Idaho	91.9
321	Charlotte	91.9
322	Bethune Cookman	91.9
323	Western Carolina	91.9
324	New Hampshire	91.7
325	Rice	91.7
326	North Carolina A&T	91.7
327	Elon	91.5
328	Youngstown St.	91.4
329	Southeastern Louisiana	91.4
330	North Alabama	91.3
331	UMass Lowell	91.3
332	VMI	90.7
333	Binghamton	90.5
334	Mount St. Mary’s	90.4
335	USC Upstate	90.1
336	Manhattan	90.1
337	San Jose St.	90.0
338	Alabama St.	90.0
339	SIU Edwardsville	89.9
340	Tennessee Tech	89.5
341	Maryland Eastern Shore	89.2
342	Southern	88.8
343	South Carolina St.	88.6
344	Florida A&M	88.5
345	Bryant	87.9
346	Stetson	87.4
347	Incarnate Word	87.2
348	Alcorn St.	86.5
349	Alabama A&M	84.6
350	Savannah St.	83.7
351	Coppin St.	83.5
352	Delaware St.	82.7
353	Chicago St.	82.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

#	Team	PiRate Rating	Conf
1	VCU	106.4	A10
2	Dayton	106.2	A10
3	Davidson	105.6	A10
4	Rhode Island	104.4	A10
5	Saint Joseph’s	104.1	A10
6	Saint Louis	104.1	A10
7	Massachusetts	101.8	A10
8	St. Bonaventure	101.2	A10
9	Duquesne	100.1	A10
10	Richmond	100.0	A10
11	George Mason	99.7	A10
12	Fordham	98.3	A10
13	La Salle	97.3	A10
14	George Washington	94.1	A10
1	Duke	122.9	ACC
2	Virginia	117.8	ACC
3	Virginia Tech	115.9	ACC
4	Florida St.	113.4	ACC
5	Clemson	110.1	ACC
6	Syracuse	110.0	ACC
7	Notre Dame	108.3	ACC
8	North Carolina	107.8	ACC
9	North Carolina St.	106.6	ACC
10	Miami FL	105.0	ACC
11	Boston College	104.9	ACC
12	Georgia Tech	104.7	ACC
13	Louisville	103.5	ACC
14	Pittsburgh	101.9	ACC
15	Wake Forest	101.1	ACC
1	Vermont	104.0	AmEst
2	UMBC	101.5	AmEst
3	Stony Brook	99.6	AmEst
4	Maine	97.2	AmEst
5	Hartford	97.0	AmEst
6	Albany	93.9	AmEst
7	New Hampshire	91.7	AmEst
8	UMass Lowell	91.3	AmEst
9	Binghamton	90.5	AmEst
1	Cincinnati	112.0	AAC
2	Houston	110.3	AAC
3	UCF	109.5	AAC
4	Temple	107.0	AAC
5	Connecticut	105.7	AAC
6	SMU	105.5	AAC
7	Wichita St.	103.5	AAC
8	Tulsa	103.0	AAC
9	Memphis	99.7	AAC
10	South Florida	99.6	AAC
11	Tulane	94.7	AAC
12	East Carolina	94.2	AAC
1	Lipscomb	104.2	ASun
2	Liberty	103.7	ASun
3	North Florida	98.1	ASun
4	NJIT	97.7	ASun
5	Kennesaw St.	96.4	ASun
6	Florida Gulf Coast	96.0	ASun
7	Jacksonville	92.0	ASun
8	North Alabama	91.3	ASun
9	Stetson	87.4	ASun
1	Michigan St.	116.3	BTEN
2	Wisconsin	114.5	BTEN
3	Purdue	113.0	BTEN
4	Indiana	112.6	BTEN
5	Iowa	111.0	BTEN
6	Michigan	109.6	BTEN
7	Nebraska	107.8	BTEN
8	Northwestern	107.8	BTEN
9	Ohio St.	107.6	BTEN
10	Maryland	107.3	BTEN
11	Rutgers	104.6	BTEN
12	Penn St.	104.5	BTEN
13	Illinois	104.5	BTEN
14	Minnesota	102.6	BTEN
1	Texas Tech	115.2	B12
2	Iowa St.	113.7	B12
3	Kansas St.	113.2	B12
4	Oklahoma	112.6	B12
5	TCU	111.9	B12
6	Kansas	110.8	B12
7	Texas	109.6	B12
8	West Virginia	108.7	B12
9	Oklahoma St.	107.9	B12
10	Baylor	107.2	B12
1	Villanova	113.0	BEast
2	Butler	111.1	BEast
3	Creighton	110.4	BEast
4	St. John’s	109.0	BEast
5	Seton Hall	107.9	BEast
6	Providence	107.1	BEast
7	Xavier	106.3	BEast
8	Marquette	105.6	BEast
9	Georgetown	104.1	BEast
10	DePaul	104.1	BEast
1	Northern Colorado	106.7	BSky
2	Weber St.	99.8	BSky
3	Montana	99.3	BSky
4	Northern Arizona	97.2	BSky
5	Sacramento St.	96.5	BSky
6	Montana St.	96.5	BSky
7	Southern Utah	95.5	BSky
8	Idaho St.	94.9	BSky
9	Eastern Washington	94.3	BSky
10	Portland St.	93.8	BSky
11	Idaho	91.9	BSky
1	Radford	102.5	BSou
2	Gardner Webb	100.8	BSou
3	Winthrop	100.5	BSou
4	UNC Asheville	96.6	BSou
5	Hampton	96.4	BSou
6	High Point	95.8	BSou
7	Charleston Southern	95.7	BSou
8	Campbell	95.6	BSou
9	Presbyterian	95.0	BSou
10	Longwood	93.6	BSou
11	USC Upstate	90.1	BSou
1	UC Irvine	104.9	BWest
2	UCSB	101.6	BWest
3	Cal St. Fullerton	99.2	BWest
4	Hawaii	98.1	BWest
5	Long Beach St.	96.5	BWest
6	UC Davis	96.3	BWest
7	Cal St. Northridge	94.1	BWest
8	UC Riverside	92.9	BWest
9	Cal Poly	92.3	BWest
1	Hofstra	104.8	CAA
2	Charleston	104.0	CAA
3	Northeastern	103.8	CAA
4	UNC Wilmington	99.6	CAA
5	William & Mary	97.6	CAA
6	Delaware	96.4	CAA
7	Towson	95.0	CAA
8	Drexel	94.6	CAA
9	James Madison	94.4	CAA
10	Elon	91.5	CAA
1	Marshall	106.0	CUSA
2	Old Dominion	105.7	CUSA
3	Western Kentucky	104.4	CUSA
4	Middle Tennessee	102.6	CUSA
5	Southern Miss	101.7	CUSA
6	North Texas	100.0	CUSA
7	Louisiana Tech	99.9	CUSA
8	UAB	99.1	CUSA
9	UTSA	97.0	CUSA
10	FIU	96.8	CUSA
11	Florida Atlantic	96.1	CUSA
12	UTEP	96.1	CUSA
13	Charlotte	91.9	CUSA
14	Rice	91.7	CUSA
1	Wright St.	101.7	Horiz
2	Northern Kentucky	101.3	Horiz
3	Green Bay	99.4	Horiz
4	IUPUI	98.3	Horiz
5	Illinois Chicago	97.0	Horiz
6	Cleveland St.	95.5	Horiz
7	Milwaukee	95.4	Horiz
8	Detroit	93.7	Horiz
9	Oakland	92.5	Horiz
10	Youngstown St.	91.4	Horiz
1	Penn	105.9	Ivy
2	Yale	105.3	Ivy
3	Harvard	104.3	Ivy
4	Brown	100.7	Ivy
5	Princeton	98.6	Ivy
6	Dartmouth	97.5	Ivy
7	Columbia	96.9	Ivy
8	Cornell	95.7	Ivy
1	Rider	101.4	MAAC
2	Iona	97.5	MAAC
3	Canisius	97.0	MAAC
4	Fairfield	95.7	MAAC
5	Quinnipiac	95.1	MAAC
6	Niagara	94.7	MAAC
7	Monmouth	94.6	MAAC
8	Marist	94.4	MAAC
9	Siena	94.2	MAAC
10	Saint Peter’s	93.8	MAAC
11	Manhattan	90.1	MAAC
1	Buffalo	111.6	MAC
2	Toledo	107.1	MAC
3	Ball St.	105.6	MAC
4	Miami OH	104.1	MAC
5	Akron	104.0	MAC
6	Central Michigan	99.6	MAC
7	Ohio	98.6	MAC
8	Bowling Green	98.3	MAC
9	Eastern Michigan	97.7	MAC
10	Western Michigan	97.5	MAC
11	Kent St.	96.8	MAC
12	Northern Illinois	96.5	MAC
1	Norfolk St.	95.5	MEAC
2	Howard	93.0	MEAC
3	North Carolina Central	92.7	MEAC
4	Morgan St.	92.4	MEAC
5	Bethune Cookman	91.9	MEAC
6	North Carolina A&T	91.7	MEAC
7	Maryland Eastern Shore	89.2	MEAC
8	South Carolina St.	88.6	MEAC
9	Florida A&M	88.5	MEAC
10	Savannah St.	83.7	MEAC
11	Coppin St.	83.5	MEAC
12	Delaware St.	82.7	MEAC
1	Loyola Chicago	103.7	MVC
2	Southern Illinois	102.6	MVC
3	Drake	102.2	MVC
4	Indiana St.	101.0	MVC
5	Missouri St.	100.7	MVC
6	Bradley	99.8	MVC
7	Valparaiso	99.6	MVC
8	Illinois St.	99.4	MVC
9	Northern Iowa	98.1	MVC
10	Evansville	98.1	MVC
1	Nevada	115.2	MWC
2	Utah St.	109.0	MWC
3	Fresno St.	108.3	MWC
4	San Diego St.	106.3	MWC
5	New Mexico	105.3	MWC
6	Boise St.	102.3	MWC
7	UNLV	101.5	MWC
8	Colorado St.	96.1	MWC
9	Wyoming	95.0	MWC
10	Air Force	94.3	MWC
11	San Jose St.	90.0	MWC
1	LIU Brooklyn	100.4	NEC
2	St. Francis PA	97.0	NEC
3	Wagner	95.5	NEC
4	Fairleigh Dickinson	95.4	NEC
5	St. Francis NY	94.2	NEC
6	Robert Morris	94.1	NEC
7	Sacred Heart	94.0	NEC
8	Central Connecticut	93.8	NEC
9	Mount St. Mary’s	90.4	NEC
10	Bryant	87.9	NEC
1	Belmont	106.8	OVC
2	Austin Peay	102.2	OVC
3	Murray St.	100.6	OVC
4	Jacksonville St.	99.3	OVC
5	Eastern Kentucky	94.7	OVC
6	SEMO	94.0	OVC
7	Morehead St.	93.5	OVC
8	Tennessee St.	92.9	OVC
9	Eastern Illinois	92.8	OVC
10	UT-Martin	92.6	OVC
11	SIU Edwardsville	89.9	OVC
12	Tennessee Tech	89.5	OVC
1	Arizona St.	109.8	Pac12
2	Arizona	108.0	Pac12
3	Washington	107.7	Pac12
4	Oregon St.	106.8	Pac12
5	UCLA	106.7	Pac12
6	Colorado	106.2	Pac12
7	USC	105.6	Pac12
8	Stanford	103.4	Pac12
9	Oregon	102.6	Pac12
10	Utah	101.6	Pac12
11	Washington St.	99.8	Pac12
12	California	97.4	Pac12
1	Bucknell	101.6	Pat
2	Colgate	100.0	Pat
3	Holy Cross	99.9	Pat
4	Lehigh	99.7	Pat
5	Loyola MD	98.1	Pat
6	American	98.0	Pat
7	Boston University	97.5	Pat
8	Navy	97.2	Pat
9	Lafayette	95.9	Pat
10	Army	94.7	Pat
1	Louisiana	106.0	SBC
2	Georgia St.	104.1	SBC
3	Texas St.	102.8	SBC
4	Georgia Southern	102.4	SBC
5	Louisiana Monroe	100.9	SBC
6	Troy	99.7	SBC
7	Appalachian St.	99.0	SBC
8	Coastal Carolina	98.9	SBC
9	Little Rock	98.4	SBC
10	South Alabama	97.8	SBC
11	UT Arlington	94.8	SBC
12	Arkansas St.	93.7	SBC
1	Wofford	107.8	Socon
2	Furman	104.9	Socon
3	East Tennessee St.	104.3	Socon
4	Mercer	101.1	Socon
5	The Citadel	100.0	Socon
6	Samford	99.5	Socon
7	UNC Greensboro	98.5	Socon
8	Chattanooga	92.9	Socon
9	Western Carolina	91.9	Socon
10	VMI	90.7	Socon
1	Tennessee	115.0	SEC
2	Auburn	114.7	SEC
3	Florida	111.5	SEC
4	Mississippi St.	110.2	SEC
5	Kentucky	109.4	SEC
6	Alabama	107.4	SEC
7	Vanderbilt	107.3	SEC
8	Missouri	107.0	SEC
9	Texas A&M	106.6	SEC
10	Georgia	104.8	SEC
11	LSU	103.2	SEC
12	South Carolina	103.2	SEC
13	Arkansas	100.1	SEC
14	Mississippi	98.6	SEC
1	Abilene Christian	99.1	Southl
2	Stephen F. Austin	98.2	Southl
3	New Orleans	95.7	Southl
4	Lamar	94.7	Southl
5	Sam Houston St.	94.6	Southl
6	Nicholls St.	94.4	Southl
7	Northwestern St.	94.2	Southl
8	Central Arkansas	94.0	Southl
9	Houston Baptist	93.8	Southl
10	McNeese St.	93.1	Southl
11	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	92.5	Southl
12	Southeastern Louisiana	91.4	Southl
13	Incarnate Word	87.2	Southl
1	South Dakota St.	105.4	Sum
2	North Dakota St.	98.7	Sum
3	South Dakota	98.4	Sum
4	Purdue Fort Wayne	98.1	Sum
5	Omaha	98.0	Sum
6	Oral Roberts	97.0	Sum
7	Western Illinois	95.3	Sum
8	Denver	93.4	Sum
9	North Dakota	93.0	Sum
1	Arkansas Pine Bluff	96.7	SWAC
2	Texas Southern	96.4	SWAC
3	Mississippi Valley St.	94.5	SWAC
4	Prairie View A&M	94.4	SWAC
5	Grambling St.	94.0	SWAC
6	Jackson St.	92.2	SWAC
7	Alabama St.	90.0	SWAC
8	Southern	88.8	SWAC
9	Alcorn St.	86.5	SWAC
10	Alabama A&M	84.6	SWAC
1	New Mexico St.	104.3	WAC
2	Grand Canyon	102.8	WAC
3	Utah Valley	101.7	WAC
4	Seattle	100.6	WAC
5	Cal Baptist	96.5	WAC
6	Cal St. Bakersfield	95.5	WAC
7	UMKC	95.3	WAC
8	UT Rio Grande Valley	94.2	WAC
9	Chicago St.	82.3	WAC
1	Gonzaga	118.5	WCC
2	San Francisco	109.1	WCC
3	Saint Mary’s	109.1	WCC
4	BYU	106.4	WCC
5	Loyola Marymount	105.8	WCC
6	San Diego	105.5	WCC
7	Pacific	101.5	WCC
8	Pepperdine	100.6	WCC
9	Portland	97.7	WCC
10	Santa Clara	96.1	WCC

 

 

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Selection Committee Got It Right–Only Because The Criteria Was Wrong

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee is under fire today for how teams like Oklahoma, Arizona State,  and Syracuse made the tournament, while teams like Saint Mary’s, Middle Tennessee State, and USC did not.

Don’t blame this Committee.  They did not create the criteria that they use to select the teams.  You wouldn’t blame a jury if the judge orders them not to consider the most convincing evidence in a trial, and it produces the opposite verdict.

We are hearing interesting rumors that Louisville and USC received punitive treatment due to the impending FBI probe, but we do not buy into this rumor.

The reality is that Oklahoma, Arizona State, and Syracuse are in the field, and USC, Saint Mary’s, and Middle Tennessee are not.

The PiRate Bracket Gurus correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams, missing on USC versus Syracuse.  They don’t want to make this sound like sour grapes here, and they are not responsible in the least for our comments, but we find it a laughing joke that the Trojans did not make the tournament, while Arizona State did make the tournament.

Again, it is not the Committee’s fault that the most convincing evidence that would show the superior team was not admissible in this case.  USC finished in 2nd place in the Pac-12, while Arizona State finished tied for 8th place, with only three teams below the Sun Devils in the standings.  USC bested ASU by four games in the conference standings!

How can a team finish 22.2% better in the majority part of an identical schedule than another team and see the weaker team make the tournament, while they did not?  This is why March Madness is more mad due to inferior selection criteria.

We repeat a comparison we made earlier this season.  Take the NFL Playoffs.  Let’s say that during the first month of the season, The New York Giants beat Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh and lead the NFC East at 4-0, while The Eagles are 2-2, with victories over Washington and Tampa Bay.

At this point in the season, the Giants are the best team in the NFL, while Philly is in the bottom half.  Now, from this point on, the Giants finish 5-7 for a 9-7 record.  The Eagles go 9-3 for an 11-5 record.

So, in the playoffs, the Giants are selected by the NFL Selection Committee due to their Quadrant 1 NFL wins in September, while the Eagles have to go to the Bert Bell Playoff Bowl in Miami (Google It–There really was a bowl game in the NFL).

If the NFL stages its playoffs this way, the league would be the laughingstock of sports.  The playoffs would be a big joke.  Yet, in college basketball, the public is brainwashed into believing that this giant tournament of mostly mediocrity is can’t miss entertainment.

The PiRates can easily miss seeing almost all these games where one or more of the combatants fared so poorly in the regular season that in decades past, their coaches might have been fired or put on a hot seat.

Allowing the 8th best team in a rather weak conference to have a chance to play for the national championship is par for the course in this everybody gets a trophy society.  When it comes down to it, neither USC nor Arizona State should have been invited to the NCAA Tournament.  Likewise, no team that did not win a conference championship should have been invited.  There are 32 conferences.  There should be 32 teams invited to the tournament, the 32 champions.

Before you say, “Hey Bucakroo, you cannot be serious about including Radford but not Duke,” let us preface that we favor just the 32 conference champions, but we also would favor handicapping the tournament so that the top 10 conference champions would receive byes to the Sweet 16, while the other 22 conference champions would have to compete in a play-in tournament to narrow from 22 to 12 to 6.  The 6 play-in winners would fill out the Sweet 16.

This is exactly how the NCAA Tournament used to be conducted.  Back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s, six to eight conference champions received automatic byes to the Sweet 16, while 14 to 18 other conference champions (and top Independents) were forced to play-in to the Sweet 16.  The bye conferences were determined by the past 5 years results in prior NCAA Tournaments.

Four plus decades ago, over half of the division 1 teams in the East were independents, playing in a loosely-knit organization called the ECAC (Eastern College Athletic Conference).  Prior to 1975, the ECAC was guaranteed two spots in the NCAA Tournament, while other Independents from the South, Midwest, and West could only be selected as at-large entries if and when the NCAA determined they were worthy.

Usually, 24 teams were selected for the NCAA Tournament.  There were eight teams that received byes and 16 teams that played into the Sweet 16.  On the third Saturday of March, the play-in games were played on neutral sites.  Then, on the following Thursday night (Friday night until 1968), the Sweet 16 Round was played, and the Elite 8 Round was played on Saturday.  There were regional consolation games to give each region four total games.

Then, the Final Four was played the following Thursday night with a consolation game and National Championship Game played on Saturday afternoon.  Starting in 1973, the Final Four moved to its present Saturday afternoon-Monday night format.

The explanation that the tournament became huge when it moved to 64 and then 68 teams is not actual fact.  The tournament was already big before it began to expand.  It would have continued to gain fan support if it had stayed exactly the same, and it is our opinion that it would be even bigger than it is today had it remained a tournament of conference champions.

With today’s format, a lot of really fantastic marquee games never happen.  The so-called media darling long shots that pull off a first round upset or sneak into the Sweet 16 eventually get blown out by a power conference team, giving the power conference team somewhat of a breather to the next round.  With 32 first round games, there are going to be a handful of upsets when a power team either overlooks the smaller school or comes out flat, while the other team plays the game of its lives.

The 1927 New York Yankees occasionally had an off day and lost to the Washington Senators (8 times that year).  They even lost a game to the St. Louis Browns.  There is always that odd day or night where things just don’t go the way they should 99% of the time.  It actually hurts the tournament when a #2 seed loses to a #15 seed, because the #15 seed isn’t going anywhere, while the #2 seed could have given the public a really incredible Elite 8 game against a #1 seed.

With that in mind, the PiRates have two separate ideas that would make the NCAA Basketball Tournament much better than it is now.  It would still give the Radford’s a real chance to compete for the title, and it would eliminate the ridiculous, human-error-laced, Selection Committee trying to create a reason why the 12-6 number two team from a power conference stays home, while the 8-10 number eight place (tied for 8th) team from that same conference makes the field.

Option A: Split Division 1 into D1 Large and D1 Small.  D1 Large would be the top 16 conferences, while D1 Small would be the bottom 16 conferences.

Conduct separate 16-team playoffs in the same manner that the NBA now uses.  4 rounds of best of 7 playoffs with the higher-ranked team getting home court advantage.  This option allows the home town fans a chance to see their team play on its home court, whereas only a handful of fans can afford to travel all over the map to watch them play in far away outposts.  How many Buffalo Bulls fans will make the trip to Boise, Idaho?

You could add a twist to the playoff formats and incorporate the relegation and promotion rules from soccer, where the conference of the Small Champion is promoted to Large, and the conference with the weakest-rated Large Champion being relegated to Small.

Imagine a Final Four with Arizona playing Kansas in a best of 7, and Virginia playing Michigan State in a best of 7.  What would the TV ratings be on these series rather than seeing a Sweet 16 game between one of these powers and a long shot low-major team that will lose by 20+ in the Sweet 16?  The two series would dwarf the ratings of today’s earlier rounds where teams are forced to play in the mornings and afternoons of weekdays.

Option B would be to revert back to how the tournament was conducted in the 1960’s and early 1970’s.  Take the 22 weakest conferences and send their champions to a 22 to 12 to 6 play-in.  Send the other 10 top conference champions expressly to the Sweet 16.

Sure, teams like North Carolina, Villanova, and Michigan would not be in the tournament, but then neither would be 8-10 Arizona State or 8-10 Syracuse.  Villanova, Michigan, Purdue, Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and USC among others would give the 16-team (like it was when it was great) NIT a great group of teams, so great that they could return to playing all 15 games at Madison Square Garden.

Most of you reading this today are wondering what our schedule will be for the NCAA Tournament.  Usually, today is the day we release our annual Bracketnomics report showing what back-tested data has been successful in isolating past NCAA Tournament winners.

The PiRates have made some sweeping changes this year, as advanced metrics have made our past bracket-picking criteria somewhat obsolete.  We still have our exceptional R+T weighted rating, and it still represents a huge chunk of what works for us, but we have dropped a lot of the other former data.  With advanced metrics like true shooting% and a better way to compare teams based on strength of schedule, we will be releasing an all-inclusive, somewhat explanatory reveal Tuesday afternoon.

PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus’ Final Predictions For the Field of 68

That Darn Davidson
Call it the Steph Curry Effect. It would happen that the one bid-stealing team in the Conference Tournament part of March Madness would be a team from a conference that played its championship game on Selection Sunday afternoon.

 
At least the Selection Committee had to deal with this contingency as well. If our Bracket Gurus know their stuff, they believe that bubble burst popping sound you just heard emanated from Moraga, California, and Saint Mary’s just became a number one seed in the NIT.

What about the other near miss teams?  Our gurus believe (but not unanimously) the bubbles had already burst on Louisville, Middle Tennessee State, Syracuse, Marquette, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma St.

Now, with Davidson getting in with the automatic bid, some non-guru bracketologists might simple place the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament and remove A-10 member St. Bonaventure. It doesn’t work like that. All of our Gurus already locked the Bonnies into the field. Saint Mary’s had the bottom score of the 68 teams, and with the Gaels sulking as they prepare to host an NIT game (or if our Gurus miss), now the #68 team is Arizona St. The Sun Devils are not really affected by the upset in D.C., if our Gurus have it right. They were already headed to Dayton as one of the Last Four in.

The team other than Saint Mary’s that suffered from Davidson’s win is the former last team in with a bye. USC was the number 64 team on the seed line, but after Davidson removed Saint Mary’s from the 11-seed line, it knocked the Trojans down to the fourth weakest Guru score. Thus, the Trojans are picked to join Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, and Texas in First Four games in Dayton.

Our Gurus had a difficult time narrowing the field of 68 from a field of 71. Word leaked out of the Selection Committee early Sunday morning, that all but one at-large spot had been determined prior to any games this afternoon. Our Gurus took that as a slap across 14 faces. If the Committee had it down to 69, then they could too. Between 8AM and Noon Eastern Time today, the Gurus agreed to vote Louisville, Middle Tennessee St., Marquette, and Syracuse off the Madness Island. Pending the outcome of the Davidson-Rhode Island game, the Gurus had the teams selected. A couple of late games might have affected a couple of seeds, as Cincinnati and Tennessee could swap with a Volunteer win and Bearcat loss. Tennessee lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship, so Cincinnati should stay where they are, win or lose in the AAC Championship Game, which is about to tip off.
Since we are going to press before the American Athletic Conference Tournament ends, we told our Gurus to assume that Cincinnati wins the game and keeps their high seed.  There is a chance a Cinti loss could elevate another team from three to two seed, but we believe the Committee doesn’t want to mess with this contingency this late in the game.  We figured that time was more of the essence than waiting for the last game to finish.
So, with that in mind, here is the PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus’ Final Prediction. If we get 68 out of 68 again this year, it will be a minor miracle. It wasn’t easy for the Gurus to come close to a consensus. Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, and Baylor all received at least one vote out of 14 Guru lists. Saint Mary’s, Arizona St., and Texas were left off at least 3 of the 14 ballots.

 

Seed	Team	Conference
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Villanova	B-EAST
1	Xavier	B-EAST
1	Kansas	B12
2	Duke	ACC
2	Purdue	B-TEN
2	North Carolina	ACC
2	Cincinnati	AAC
3	Michigan St.	B-TEN
3	Tennessee	SEC
3	Michigan	B-TEN
3	Auburn	SEC
4	West Virginia	B12
4	Arizona	PAC-12
4	Texas Tech	B12
4	Wichita St.	AAC
5	Clemson	ACC
5	Gonzaga	WCC
5	Kentucky	SEC
5	Ohio St.	B-TEN
6	Houston	AAC
6	Florida	SEC
6	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
6	Arkansas	SEC
7	Texas A&M	SEC
7	TCU	B12
7	Rhode Island	A-10
7	Seton Hall	B-EAST
8	Nevada	MWC
8	Virginia Tech	ACC
8	Missouri	SEC
8	Providence	B-EAST
9	Alabama	SEC
9	Butler	B-EAST
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	Creighton	B-EAST
10	North Carolina St.	ACC
10	Kansas St.	B12
10	UCLA	PAC-12
10	Oklahoma	B12
11	USC	PAC-12
11	Texas	B12
11	St. Bonaventure	A-10
11	Arizona St.	PAC-12
11	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
11	San Diego St.	MWC
12	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	South Dakota St.	SUMMIT
12	Buffalo	MAC
12	Davidson	A-10
13	Murray St.	OVC
13	UNC-Greensboro	SOCON
13	Marshall	CUSA
13	Charleston	CAA
14	Bucknell	PATRIOT
14	Montana	B-SKY
14	Wright St.	HORIZON
14	Georgia St./UT-Arlington	SBC
15	Stephen F. Austin	SLC
15	Lipscomb	A-SUN
15	Iona	MAAC
15	Penn	IVY
16	MD-Baltimore Co.	A-EAST
16	Cal St. Fullerton	B-WEST
16	Long Island	NEC
16	Radford	B-SOUTH
16	UNC-Central	MEAC
16	Texas Southern	SWAC

Our Gurus’ Additional Picks

First Four Round in Dayton

11-seed line: Texas vs. Arizona St.

11-seed line: USC vs. St. Bonaventure

16-seed line: Long Island vs. Texas Southern

16-seed line: Radford vs. UNC-Central

 

Last 4 Byes

61. North Carolina St.

62. Kansas St.

63. UCLA

64. Oklahoma

 

First Four Out

69. Saint Mary’s

70. Middle Tennessee St.

71. Louisville

72. Syracuse

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Late Night Update–March 10-11 , 2018

The Bracket Gurus are burning the midnight oil and pouring more coffee as they try to determine who the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee will invite into the Dance, and who will not hear the phone ring on Sunday.

At this point last year, most of the gurus were 100% in agreement on about 66 teams with only three teams really fighting for the final two spots.

There is a bit more dissension this season.  There are six teams seriously in the final discussion for three spots, but this will all change is Davidson beats Rhode Island on Sunday.  The Gurus are 100% in agreement in their belief that St. Bonaventure is in, so the Atlantic 10 could move from two to three teams if the Wildcats upset the Rams.

The teams that need to be worried about Davidson winning include Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Saint Mary’s, Louisville, and Middle Tennessee State.  The Gurus are close to eliminating Marquette, Baylor, and Syracuse, but these teams still appear on exactly one Guru list (three different Gurus have one each of the three).

Check back tomorrow after the conclusion of the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.  Within about 30 minutes of the outcome, we will publish our final Bracket Gurus report in full.  The pressure is on our Gurus.  Last year, they correctly picked all 68 teams in the field, and also correctly picked 61 teams on the correct seed line or just one seed off.

Teams In The Field as of Saturday Night, 11:59 PM EST

Team	Bid	Conf.	W-L
Bucknell	AUTO	Patriot	25-9
Buffalo	AUTO	MAC	26-8
Charleston	AUTO	CAA	26-7
Gonzaga	AUTO	WCC	30-4
Iona	AUTO	MAAC	20-13
Kansas	AUTO	B12	27-7
Lipscomb	AUTO	A-SUN	23-9
Long Island	AUTO	NEC	18-16
Loyola (Chi.)	AUTO	MVC	28-5
Marshall	AUTO	CUSA	24-10
MD-Baltimore Co.	AUTO	AE	24-10
Michigan	AUTO	BTen	28-7
Montana	AUTO	BSky	26-7
Murray St.	AUTO	OVC	26-5
New Mexico St.	AUTO	WAC	28-5
Radford	AUTO	B-South	22-12
San Diego St.	AUTO	MWC	22-10
South Dakota St.	AUTO	Summit	28-6
Stephen F. Austin	AUTO	SLC	28-6
Texas Southern	AUTO	SWAC	15-19
UNC-Central	AUTO	MEAC	19-15
UNC-Greensboro	AUTO	SoCon	27-7
Villanova	AUTO	BE	30-4
Virginia	AUTO	ACC	31-2
Wright St.	AUTO	Horizon	25-9

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for March 5, 2018

The Bracket Gurus are doing double duty this week having to keep up with the conference tournaments every day as well as the bracketology.

The Gurus are starting to come to a consensus, as there were only 72 teams that received votes this week, meaning we only have a Top 4 out and not Next 4, since our geniuses feel there are no other teams that as of now have any shot at receiving an at-large invitation.

Consider this: as of today, there have been no teams that have gone from out to in based on their showing in their conference tournaments.  Nebraska failed to show up in the Big Ten Conference Tournament, while Penn State fell one round short of mattering.

Of course, except for the Big Ten Conference, all the power leagues that could possibly produce a team that might win enough to move into consideration have yet to begin conference tournament play.  There are a few teams remaining that still have remote at-large life.  These are:

ACC: Syracuse and Louisville

Big East: Marquette

Big 12: Oklahoma St.

Mountain West: Boise St.

Pac-12: Utah and Washington

SEC: LSU, Georgia, and Mississippi St.

There is the opposite to this discussion.  There are a host of teams that if they lose on the first day or even second day of their tournament, they could fall from in to out.  Another factor that could push these teams out is if upset winners claim automatic bids.  These are the teams that are hanging on by a thread at the current time.

Big 12: Baylor, Kansas St., and Texas

Big East: Providence

Pac-12: USC, Arizona St., and UCLA

SEC: Alabama

West Coast: Saint Mary’s

Which dark horse teams could make a run to an upset championship in each power conference?  (Does not include teams currently on the Bubble)

American: Tulsa

Atlantic 10: Davidson

ACC: Notre Dame

Big 12: None, because all that’s left is Iowa St. and we do not see the Cyclones winning.

Big East: St. John’s

Pac-12: Stanford

SEC: South Carolina

West Coast: BYU

Here are the seeds as our Bracket Gurus predict.  Teams in RED have clinched an automatic bid.

Seed	Team	Conference
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Villanova	B-EAST
1	Xavier	B-EAST
1	Kansas	B12
2	Duke	ACC
2	Purdue	B-TEN
2	Michigan St.	B-TEN
2	Auburn	SEC
3	North Carolina	ACC
3	Cincinnati	AAC
3	Tennessee	SEC
3	Texas Tech	B12
4	Wichita St.	AAC
4	Michigan	B-TEN
4	West Virginia	B12
4	Arizona	PAC-12
5	Clemson	ACC
5	Gonzaga	WCC
5	Ohio St.	B-TEN
5	Kentucky	SEC
6	Florida	SEC
6	Houston	AAC
6	Texas A&M	SEC
6	TCU	B12
7	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
7	Arkansas	SEC
7	Seton Hall	B-EAST
7	Nevada	MWC
8	Rhode Island	A-10
8	Virginia Tech	ACC
8	Missouri	SEC
8	Oklahoma	B12
9	Creighton	B-EAST
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	North Carolina St.	ACC
9	Butler	B-EAST
10	St. Bonaventure	A-10
10	UCLA	PAC-12
10	Middle Tennessee	CUSA
10	Texas	B12
11	Arizona St.	PAC-12
11	Saint Mary’s	WCC
11	Providence	B-EAST
11	USC	PAC-12
11	Alabama	SEC
12	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	Buffalo	MAC
12	Murray St.	OVC
12	Kansas St.	B12
12	Baylor	B12
13	UL-Lafayette	SBC
13	South Dakota St.	SUMMIT
13	Vermont	A-EAST
13	Charleston	CAA
14	UNC-Greensboro	SOCON
14	Bucknell	PATRIOT
14	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
14	Montana	B-SKY
15	UC Davis	B-WEST
15	Wright St.	HORIZON
15	Wagner	NEC
15	Lipscomb	A-SUN
16	Penn	IVY
16	Iona	MAAC
16	Radford	B-SOUTH
16	Hampton	MEAC
16	Nicholls St.	SLC
16	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	SWAC

The First Four in Dayton

USC vs. Baylor

Alabama vs. Kansas St.

Radford vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff

Hampton vs. Nicholls St.

 

Top 4 Out 

Marquette	B-EAST
Syracuse	ACC
Louisville	ACC
Utah	PAC-12

Multiple Bid Leagues

Conference	#
ACC	8
Big 12	8
SEC	8
Big East	6
Big Ten	4
Pac-12	4
American	3
Atlantic 10	2
West Coast	2

There are currently 23, one-bid leagues.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 14-16, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

PiRate Ratings Spreads
September 14-16
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	New Mexico	12.9	10.4	11.8
Temple	Massachusetts	14.2	15.6	14.5
South Florida	Illinois	20.5	17.3	22.9
UTEP	Arizona	-23.3	-17.6	-20.1
South Carolina	Kentucky	0.5	1.2	0.2
Marshall	Kent St.	4.6	4.9	4.7
Boston College	Notre Dame	-8.1	-5.1	-8.8
Virginia	Connecticut	16.2	13.0	17.0
Michigan	Air Force	26.8	25.4	25.7
UAB	Coastal Carolina	-8.3	-3.8	-8.0
Miami (O)	Cincinnati	4.5	4.3	5.2
Penn St.	Georgia St.	45.2	43.7	46.0
Akron	Iowa St.	-15.1	-12.3	-15.7
Old Dominion	North Carolina	-16.3	-12.1	-14.3
Pittsburgh	Oklahoma St.	-9.8	-8.6	-12.3
Minnesota	Middle Tennessee	17.5	17.2	16.2
Indiana	Florida Int’l.	26.8	26.6	26.2
Memphis	UCLA	-2.3	-2.3	-1.4
Nebraska	Northern Illinois	20.7	22.3	19.7
Duke	Baylor	13.2	9.2	11.7
Ohio U	Kansas	4.0	2.8	5.7
Wake Forest	Utah St.	21.0	21.4	21.2
Louisville	Clemson	-8.2	-5.5	-7.1
Syracuse	Central Michigan	18.3	16.3	17.0
East Carolina	Virginia Tech	-28.3	-26.4	-28.7
BYU	Wisconsin	-17.3	-14.4	-15.1
Missouri	Purdue	7.8	2.8	5.7
Iowa	North Texas	33.3	31.3	33.0
Texas A&M	UL-Lafayette	23.9	19.9	22.7
Northwestern	Bowling Green	31.2	28.8	30.2
Oklahoma	Tulane	36.1	33.4	36.6
Florida	Tennessee	6.4	7.7	7.5
TCU	SMU	19.0	16.1	18.6
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	11.5	7.8	12.1
Ohio St.	Army	36.2	33.7	34.5
Washington St.	Oregon St.	27.0	24.1	27.6
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-25.8	-19.6	-27.4
Alabama	Colorado St.	32.1	28.7	31.2
Toledo	Tulsa	-0.4	0.4	1.3
Western Michigan	Idaho	21.4	15.8	22.0
UL-Monroe	Southern Miss.	-2.8	-3.9	-4.3
Wyoming	Oregon	-9.5	-8.6	-9.7
Mississippi St.	LSU	-10.3	-7.9	-10.6
Central Florida	Georgia Tech	-7.5	-2.9	-4.6
Vanderbilt	Kansas St.	-1.6	-3.0	-3.2
Houston	Rice	26.1	23.8	25.2
New Mexico St.	Troy	-3.5	-6.3	-3.4
Texas Tech	Arizona St.	5.3	4.6	5.0
USC	Texas	13.0	11.3	13.2
Utah	San Jose St.	23.9	27.2	24.9
Washington	Fresno St.	43.8	41.5	44.5
California	Ole Miss	-4.0	-5.2	-4.3
San Diego St.	Stanford	-15.0	-12.1	-12.8

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Auburn	Mercer	40
Georgia	Samford	26
UTSA	Southern	24
West Virginia	Delaware St.	55
North Carolina St.	Furman	31
Colorado	Northern Colorado	39
Ball St.	Tennessee Tech	20
Rutgers	Morgan St.	36
Charlotte	N.C. A&T	-2
Buffalo	Colgate	7
Nevada	Idaho St.	25
Arkansas St.	Ark.-Pine Bluff	51
South Alabama	Alabama A&M	28
Florida Atlantic	Bethune-Cookman	15

The Big 12 Arises Like The Phoenix
A week after Texas and Baylor suffered devastating losses, the Big 12 returned from the dead with some major victories. Oklahoma went to the Giant Horseshoe and toyed with Ohio State for most of the evening. The Sooners looked about as effective on offense as they looked back in 2008, when they had Sam Bradford, Chris Brown, Demarco Murray, Juaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham. But, it was the defense that really looked dominant. Oklahoma’s effort Saturday night reminded us more of their 2001 team that featured Tommie Harris, Rocky Calmus, Derrick Strait, and Roy Williams.

TCU’s defense totally shut down Arkansas in the Horned Frogs win at Fayetteville. TCU’s defense held Arkansas to 13 first downs and 267 total yards; more importantly, they held them to just 7 points.

Oklahoma State won on the road at South Alabama, which doesn’t sound like a big deal, but the Jaguars have a history of sneaking up on Power 5 conference teams.

Baylor lost once again, and Iowa State just missed against Iowa, while Texas played much better in their drubbing of San Jose St. The Longhorns get a chance to redeem themselves for the Maryland debacle when they venture to the LA Coliseum to take on USC this week. If UT keeps this game close, then watch out for the ‘Horns in Big 12 Conference play. It is a transition process into Coach Tom Herman’s offense, but Herman’s teams find a way to win, and Texas will win more than they did last year.

ACC Tilt Highlights Top Games This Week
Following Clemson’s defensive gem against Auburn, the Tigers must now face the reigning Heisman Trophy winner on his turf. Clemson’s game at Louisville tops this week’s schedule. Louisville has the horses to do to CU what they did to Florida State last year, but we believe Coach Dabo Swinney will come up with another brilliant game plan to slow down the Cardinal attack. The issue is whether the Clemson offense has enough to get to about 27 points, because even when you slow down the ‘Ville, you might still give up 24 points.

Clemson’s big rival has a big game this week. South Carolina hosts Kentucky. USC already owns a conference win and can take a major step forward toward competing with Georgia for the East Division flag. Kentucky has not looked up to the standards we thought they had the potential to be, performing so-so in wins over Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky.

Florida hosts Tennessee in the Swamp, and the Gators got a week off after their no-show event against Michigan. Meanwhile, Tennessee is playing its third game in 12 days and has suffered a couple of injury losses. The Vols’ offense has been at the extremes. On one drive, they look like Louisville, and on the next drive they look like a college version of the New York Jets or San Francisco 49ers. Florida was very consistent offensively against Michigan–they looked like the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on every drive against the Wolverines. Expect the Gators to play near their maximum capacity in this game. They cannot start 0-2 with a now 11-game schedule and have much chance to recover to much more than 7-4 and possibly just 6-5. A Tennessee win puts the Big Orange into the contender category in the mediocre East Division.

LSU travels north to take on an under-the-radar Mississippi State team that has circled this game on their schedule since Spring Ball. Miss State has just one win over the Tigers in the 16 games in this century, and that one win came at Baton Rouge. The last time the Bulldogs bested their Bayou Rivals in Starkville was 1999. The winner of this game has to be taken seriously as a top contender to Alabama.

Kansas State looks to prove that it belongs in the discussion in the Big 12, and the Wildcats have a tough game at Vanderbilt this week. The Commodores looked similar to Stanford and Michigan in their opening two wins, but to beat a top 15 team is a lot different than beating Middle Tennessee and Alabama A&M. This game actually features the top two passing offenses in Raw QB Ratings, as Kyle Shurmur has Vandy at #1, while Jesse Ertz has Kansas State at #2. This looks to be the best Kansas State offense since the great 1998 team almost made it to the National Championship Game.

The previously mentioned Texas-USC game should be interesting, but the Trojans should eventually win this one by two touchdowns or more. However, if the Longhorns can control the clock offensively, their questionable defense can hold on long enough to make this game close enough to be undecided until the fourth quarter.

The late game on the Coast has Stanford playing at San Diego State. If the Aztecs are to challenge for the Group of 5’s top spot and the New Year’s 6 Bowl, they must win this game. Stanford will be a tough out for the hometown team, but Rocky Long has SDSU looking like a team capable of running the table if they get past the Cardinal.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
This happens frequently in September. A top team is upset by another team, but the top team still rates ahead of the team that beat them. That’s the liability of predictive ratings, and the strength of retrodictive ratings. We have three predictive ratings–the regular PiRate, the PiRate Mean, and the PiRate Bias. We also have one set of PiRate Retrodictive Ratings.

If you need a primer, predictive ratings take what the teams have done so far and tries to predict what they will do next week. So, if State U has a predictive rating of 113.5 and plays Tech with a rating of 110.2, then before home field advantage (and road team disadvantage) are factored in, State is expected to beat Tech by 3.3 points. Let’s say the game is at State, and our special Pirate formula shows State to have a 3.2 point home field advantage for this game. It would then be quite easy to see that State should beat teach by 6.5 points.

Our retrodictive rating does not try to predict the outcomes of the next week’s slate of games. It is only concerned with what the teams have done. If State and Tech were to have the same Retro Ratings as their predictive ratings, this would not indicate that State should win by 6.5 points. It only means that to date, State has been about 3.3 points better in their results than Tech has been (no home field advantage used because this rating does not predict outcomes).

Why are we bringing this up? Simple. Ohio State is still number two in our predictive ratings. Oklahoma is behind the Buckeyes. In our Retrodictive Ratings, Ohio State fell quite a bit, just like Florida State did after losing to Alabama.

How can our predictive ratings show Ohio State to still be number two? It is a case of methodology. Our updates to our Predictive Ratings are rather conservative, with the Mean Rating being the most conservative, and the Bias being the least conservative, but still conservative. Remember, our predictive ratings are only looking forward and not backward. It is easier to think in terms of a major upset, like when Ole Miss beat Alabama two consecutive seasons. These two wins did not jump Ole Miss over the Tide. In a similar manner, when LSU beat Alabama during the regular season in 2011, Alabama stayed ahead of LSU in the ratings. When they met again in the National Championship Game, Alabama was the favorite, and they won 21-0.

We will lead with our Retrodictive Ratings First–We have put the rating numbers in this week to show you the difference between these ratings and the Predictive Ratings.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team	Retro
1	Alabama	127.2
2	Clemson	125.8
3	Washington	124.9
4	Oklahoma	124.6
5	USC	124.1
6	Penn St.	123.8
7	LSU	122.3
8	Ohio St.	120.8
9	Oklahoma St.	120.4
10	Wisconsin	118.8
11	Michigan	118.6
12	Miami (Fla)	116.6
13	Louisville	116.5
14	Florida St.	116.4
15	Auburn	115.9
16	Virginia Tech	115.6
17	Stanford	114.5
18	Kansas St.	114.0
19	Georgia	113.9
20	Tennessee	113.1
21	TCU	112.7
22	Washington St.	112.4
23	Utah	112.2
24	Iowa	111.9
25	Colorado	111.8
26	Florida	111.5
27	Houston	111.3
28	Mississippi St.	110.8
29	South Florida	110.3
30	San Diego St.	110.0
31	Georgia Tech	109.5
32	South Carolina	109.3
33	UCLA	109.1
34	Oregon	108.9
35	Notre Dame	108.8
36	Vanderbilt	108.6
37	West Virginia	108.3
38	Minnesota	108.0
39	Boise St.	107.7
40	Michigan St.	107.0
41	Pittsburgh	106.7
42	Toledo	106.1
43	Texas A&M	104.8
44	Wake Forest	104.3
45	Nebraska	104.0
46	Maryland	103.8
47	Duke	103.7
48	Kentucky	103.7
49	North Carolina St.	103.1
50	Memphis	103.0
51	Northwestern	101.8
52	Navy	101.6
53	Ole Miss	101.5
54	California	101.3
55	Tulsa	101.1
56	Texas	101.0
57	Arkansas	100.7
58	Air Force	100.5
59	Western Michigan	100.1
60	Colorado St.	100.0
61	Texas Tech	99.8
62	BYU	99.3
63	Appalachian St.	98.7
64	North Carolina	98.4
65	Army	98.1
66	SMU	97.9
67	Central Florida	97.7
68	Temple	97.5
69	Boston College	97.3
70	Indiana	97.1
71	Old Dominion	96.8
72	Western Kentucky	96.7
73	Troy	96.5
74	Arkansas St.	96.4
75	UTSA	96.2
76	Iowa St.	96.0
77	Purdue	95.9
78	Wyoming	95.7
79	Louisiana Tech	95.4
80	Illinois	95.3
81	Missouri	95.2
82	Eastern Michigan	95.0
83	Central Michigan	94.8
84	Arizona St.	94.4
85	Arizona	94.2
86	Middle Tennessee	94.0
87	Northern Illinois	93.8
88	Ohio	93.6
89	Syracuse	93.5
90	Tulane	93.5
91	Baylor	93.3
92	Southern Miss.	93.2
93	Oregon St.	93.1
94	New Mexico	92.9
95	Hawaii	92.7
96	Utah St.	92.2
97	Idaho	91.5
98	Cincinnati	91.2
99	Miami (O)	91.1
100	Virginia	90.9
101	UL-Lafayette	90.7
102	Coastal Carolina	90.0
103	Akron	89.6
104	Marshall	89.6
105	Nevada	89.3
106	New Mexico St.	88.8
107	Rutgers	88.5
108	Ball St.	88.3
109	South Alabama	88.0
110	Fresno St.	87.9
111	Georgia Southern	87.4
112	North Texas	87.1
113	Connecticut	86.6
114	UL-Monroe	86.3
115	San Jose St.	86.1
116	Kent St.	85.9
117	Kansas	85.5
118	Rice	85.2
119	Buffalo	84.9
120	UNLV	84.4
121	East Carolina	83.7
122	Georgia St.	83.6
123	Florida Int’l.	83.4
124	Bowling Green	83.0
125	Florida Atlantic	82.6
126	UTEP	82.1
127	UAB	80.5
128	Texas St.	79.1
129	Charlotte	77.5
130	Massachusetts	75.3

Our Regular Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	133.0	128.2	132.0	131.1
2	Ohio St.	129.4	126.6	128.7	128.2
3	Washington	128.9	125.3	129.7	128.0
4	Clemson	128.9	125.1	128.1	127.4
5	Oklahoma	127.7	125.4	128.6	127.2
6	Florida St.	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
7	Penn St.	126.2	124.0	126.9	125.7
8	Auburn	124.0	121.9	123.8	123.2
9	U S C	122.0	121.3	122.3	121.9
10	Oklahoma St.	121.6	120.3	123.2	121.7
11	L S U	120.3	118.5	121.0	119.9
12	Wisconsin	121.1	117.2	119.4	119.3
13	Stanford	118.8	116.7	117.9	117.8
14	Miami	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
15	Louisville	117.7	116.6	118.0	117.4
16	Georgia	116.7	117.9	116.8	117.1
17	Michigan	117.1	116.4	116.3	116.6
18	Virginia Tech	116.2	115.8	116.6	116.2
19	Washington St.	116.8	114.0	115.9	115.6
20	Florida	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
21	Kansas St.	114.8	114.5	115.3	114.9
22	T C U	114.8	112.1	114.7	113.8
23	N. Carolina St.	113.4	113.1	113.1	113.2
24	Texas	112.0	113.0	112.0	112.4
25	Colorado	113.7	111.7	111.5	112.3
26	Georgia Tech	113.1	110.6	111.1	111.6
27	Iowa	111.5	111.2	111.2	111.3
28	Tennessee	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
29	Kentucky	111.3	109.8	110.8	110.6
30	Notre Dame	111.2	109.3	111.3	110.6
31	Oregon	111.1	107.9	110.2	109.7
32	U C L A	110.2	109.2	109.7	109.7
33	West Virginia	109.1	109.9	109.1	109.4
34	Vanderbilt	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
35	South Florida	109.5	107.7	110.7	109.3
36	Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.3	108.7
37	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.7	108.0	108.5
38	Duke	109.5	108.1	107.9	108.5
39	N. Carolina	109.4	108.1	107.9	108.5
40	S. Carolina	108.8	108.0	108.0	108.3
41	Minnesota	108.0	108.0	107.5	107.8
42	Mississippi St.	107.0	107.6	107.4	107.3
43	Arkansas	106.7	106.2	106.5	106.5
44	Ole Miss	107.4	106.0	105.8	106.4
45	Utah	105.4	107.9	105.7	106.3
46	Maryland	105.6	107.7	105.7	106.3
47	Syracuse	106.7	105.1	105.8	105.9
48	Indiana	105.0	105.1	105.4	105.2
49	Memphis	104.9	103.9	105.3	104.7
50	Wake Forest	105.1	104.4	104.5	104.6
51	Nebraska	104.1	105.7	103.3	104.4
52	Texas A&M	105.1	102.7	103.7	103.8
53	Houston	104.2	103.0	103.8	103.7
54	Central Florida	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
55	Colo. State	103.9	102.5	103.8	103.4
56	Tulsa	102.8	102.1	102.8	102.6
57	Iowa State	101.7	102.8	102.4	102.3
58	Texas Tech	102.8	102.5	101.6	102.3
59	San Diego St.	100.9	101.5	102.1	101.5
60	Missouri	102.6	99.7	101.3	101.2
61	Boise St.	101.6	99.4	101.0	100.7
62	BYU	100.9	99.8	101.3	100.6
63	Virginia	99.9	99.9	101.3	100.4
64	Arizona St.	100.5	100.9	99.6	100.3
65	Boston College	100.1	101.2	99.5	100.3
66	Baylor	99.3	101.9	99.2	100.1
67	Michigan St.	98.6	102.0	99.5	100.0
68	Toledo	99.4	99.5	101.2	100.0
69	Western Michigan	100.4	97.7	101.8	100.0
70	Navy	99.0	100.0	98.9	99.3
71	Appalachian St.	99.7	96.9	100.2	98.9
72	Purdue	97.8	99.9	98.6	98.8
73	California	99.9	97.3	97.9	98.4
74	Arizona	98.7	97.5	96.6	97.6
75	Wyoming	98.7	96.3	97.5	97.5
76	SMU	97.2	97.5	97.6	97.4
77	Army	96.3	95.9	97.2	96.5
78	Rutgers	95.9	95.9	95.4	95.7
79	W. Kentucky	95.7	93.9	97.1	95.6
80	Temple	95.0	95.7	95.1	95.3
81	U T S A	93.9	95.6	96.1	95.2
82	Tulane	94.6	95.0	95.0	94.9
83	Eastern Michigan	94.6	94.2	94.5	94.4
84	Miami (O)	92.9	95.3	95.1	94.4
85	Middle Tennessee	93.5	93.8	94.3	93.9
86	Air Force	93.3	94.0	93.6	93.6
87	Troy	93.7	93.9	92.9	93.5
88	Oregon St.	92.8	92.9	91.3	92.3
89	Illinois	92.0	93.4	90.8	92.1
90	New Mexico	91.7	92.0	92.2	92.0
91	Old Dominion	90.6	93.5	91.1	91.7
92	Central Michigan	91.4	91.8	91.8	91.7
93	Cincinnati	89.9	92.4	91.4	91.2
94	Arkansas St.	89.5	91.1	91.2	90.6
95	Ohio U	89.5	91.4	90.4	90.4
96	Kansas	88.4	91.6	87.7	89.3
97	Hawaii	88.6	90.2	88.6	89.1
98	U N L V	87.5	90.4	87.9	88.6
99	Louisiana Tech	87.2	89.1	87.9	88.1
100	Connecticut	86.7	89.9	87.3	88.0
101	Fresno St.	88.1	86.7	88.2	87.7
102	Southern Miss.	87.1	88.5	87.2	87.6
103	Nevada	85.3	88.4	87.3	87.0
104	Utah St.	87.6	86.5	86.8	87.0
105	Northern Illinois	86.4	86.4	86.6	86.4
106	N. Mexico St.	87.1	84.6	86.6	86.1
107	East Carolina	84.9	86.4	84.8	85.4
108	Marshall	84.5	85.9	85.6	85.4
109	Akron	83.7	87.5	83.7	85.0
110	UL-Lafayette	84.2	85.8	84.0	84.7
111	Florida Atlantic	83.1	86.4	84.2	84.6
112	S. Alabama	83.5	86.4	83.7	84.5
113	Georgia St.	84.5	83.7	84.4	84.2
114	Buffalo	82.5	85.2	84.5	84.1
115	San Jose St.	84.5	83.7	83.8	84.0
116	Kent St.	82.9	84.1	83.9	83.6
117	Idaho	82.0	85.0	82.8	83.2
118	Massachusetts	83.4	82.6	83.1	83.0
119	N. Texas	81.3	82.9	81.2	81.8
120	Bowling Green	81.2	81.8	82.1	81.7
121	Florida Int’l.	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
122	UL-Monroe	81.8	82.1	80.3	81.4
123	Ball St.	79.0	81.4	80.6	80.3
124	Georgia Southern	79.9	81.2	79.5	80.2
125	Rice	79.6	80.7	80.1	80.1
126	Coastal Carolina	74.8	75.7	76.6	75.7
127	Charlotte	74.5	77.1	74.9	75.5
128	U T E P	72.9	77.3	74.0	74.8
129	Texas St.	71.5	74.8	70.3	72.2
130	UAB	64.1	69.3	66.1	66.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	0-0	2-0	109.5	107.7	110.7	109.3
Central Florida	0-0	1-0	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
Temple	0-0	1-1	95.0	95.7	95.1	95.3
Cincinnati	0-0	1-1	89.9	92.4	91.4	91.2
Connecticut	0-0	1-0	86.7	89.9	87.3	88.0
East Carolina	0-0	0-2	84.9	86.4	84.8	85.4
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	1-0	104.9	103.9	105.3	104.7
Houston	0-0	1-0	104.2	103.0	103.8	103.7
Tulsa	0-0	1-1	102.8	102.1	102.8	102.6
Navy	1-0	2-0	99.0	100.0	98.9	99.3
SMU	0-0	2-0	97.2	97.5	97.6	97.4
Tulane	0-1	1-1	94.6	95.0	95.0	94.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.2	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	0-0	2-0	128.9	125.1	128.1	127.4
Florida St.	0-0	0-1	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
Louisville	1-0	2-0	117.7	116.6	118.0	117.4
N. Carolina St.	0-0	1-1	113.4	113.1	113.1	113.2
Syracuse	0-0	1-1	106.7	105.1	105.8	105.9
Wake Forest	1-0	2-0	105.1	104.4	104.5	104.6
Boston College	0-1	1-1	100.1	101.2	99.5	100.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	0-0	1-0	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
Virginia Tech	0-0	2-0	116.2	115.8	116.6	116.2
Georgia Tech	0-0	1-1	113.1	110.6	111.1	111.6
Pittsburgh	0-0	1-1	108.8	108.7	108.0	108.5
Duke	0-0	2-0	109.5	108.1	107.9	108.5
N. Carolina	0-1	0-2	109.4	108.1	107.9	108.5
Virginia	0-0	1-1	99.9	99.9	101.3	100.4
ACC Averages			112.5	111.3	111.8	111.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	0-0	2-0	127.7	125.4	128.6	127.2
Oklahoma St.	0-0	2-0	121.6	120.3	123.2	121.7
Kansas St.	0-0	2-0	114.8	114.5	115.3	114.9
T C U	0-0	2-0	114.8	112.1	114.7	113.8
Texas	0-0	1-1	112.0	113.0	112.0	112.4
West Virginia	0-0	1-1	109.1	109.9	109.1	109.4
Iowa State	0-0	1-1	101.7	102.8	102.4	102.3
Texas Tech	0-0	1-0	102.8	102.5	101.6	102.3
Baylor	0-0	0-2	99.3	101.9	99.2	100.1
Kansas	0-0	1-1	88.4	91.6	87.7	89.3
Big 12 Averages			109.2	109.4	109.4	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	1-0	1-1	129.4	126.6	128.7	128.2
Penn St.	0-0	2-0	126.2	124.0	126.9	125.7
Michigan	0-0	2-0	117.1	116.4	116.3	116.6
Maryland	0-0	2-0	105.6	107.7	105.7	106.3
Indiana	0-1	1-1	105.0	105.1	105.4	105.2
Michigan St.	0-0	2-0	98.6	102.0	99.5	100.0
Rutgers	0-0	0-2	95.9	95.9	95.4	95.7
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	2-0	121.1	117.2	119.4	119.3
Iowa	0-0	2-0	111.5	111.2	111.2	111.3
Northwestern	0-0	1-1	109.4	107.5	109.3	108.7
Minnesota	0-0	2-0	108.0	108.0	107.5	107.8
Nebraska	0-0	1-1	104.1	105.7	103.3	104.4
Purdue	0-0	1-1	97.8	99.9	98.6	98.8
Illinois	0-0	2-0	92.0	93.4	90.8	92.1
Big Ten Averages			108.7	108.6	108.4	108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	0-0	1-1	95.7	93.9	97.1	95.6
Middle Tennessee	0-0	1-1	93.5	93.8	94.3	93.9
Old Dominion	0-0	2-0	90.6	93.5	91.1	91.7
Marshall	0-0	1-1	84.5	85.9	85.6	85.4
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-2	83.1	86.4	84.2	84.6
Florida Int’l.	0-0	1-1	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
Charlotte	0-0	0-2	74.5	77.1	74.9	75.5
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	0-0	1-0	93.9	95.6	96.1	95.2
Louisiana Tech	0-0	1-1	87.2	89.1	87.9	88.1
Southern Miss.	0-0	1-1	87.1	88.5	87.2	87.6
N. Texas	0-0	1-1	81.3	82.9	81.2	81.8
Rice	1-0	1-1	79.6	80.7	80.1	80.1
U T E P	0-1	0-2	72.9	77.3	74.0	74.8
UAB	0-0	1-1	64.1	69.3	66.1	66.5
CUSA Averages			83.5	85.4	84.4	84.4
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		1-1	111.2	109.3	111.3	110.6
BYU		1-2	100.9	99.8	101.3	100.6
Army		2-0	96.3	95.9	97.2	96.5
Massachusetts		0-3	83.4	82.6	83.1	83.0
Indep. Averages			97.9	96.9	98.2	97.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (O)	0-0	1-1	92.9	95.3	95.1	94.4
Ohio U	0-0	1-1	89.5	91.4	90.4	90.4
Akron	0-0	1-1	83.7	87.5	83.7	85.0
Buffalo	0-0	0-2	82.5	85.2	84.5	84.1
Kent St.	0-0	1-1	82.9	84.1	83.9	83.6
Bowling Green	0-0	0-2	81.2	81.8	82.1	81.7
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	0-0	2-0	99.4	99.5	101.2	100.0
Western Michigan	0-0	0-2	100.4	97.7	101.8	100.0
Eastern Michigan	0-0	2-0	94.6	94.2	94.5	94.4
Central Michigan	0-0	2-0	91.4	91.8	91.8	91.7
Northern Illinois	0-0	1-1	86.4	86.4	86.6	86.4
Ball St.	0-0	1-1	79.0	81.4	80.6	80.3
MAC Averages			88.7	89.7	89.7	89.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colo. State	0-0	2-1	103.9	102.5	103.8	103.4
Boise St.	0-0	1-1	101.6	99.4	101.0	100.7
Wyoming	0-0	1-1	98.7	96.3	97.5	97.5
Air Force	0-0	1-0	93.3	94.0	93.6	93.6
New Mexico	0-0	1-1	91.7	92.0	92.2	92.0
Utah St.	0-0	1-1	87.6	86.5	86.8	87.0
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	2-0	100.9	101.5	102.1	101.5
Hawaii	0-0	2-1	88.6	90.2	88.6	89.1
U N L V	0-0	1-1	87.5	90.4	87.9	88.6
Fresno St.	0-0	1-1	88.1	86.7	88.2	87.7
Nevada	0-0	0-2	85.3	88.4	87.3	87.0
San Jose St.	0-0	1-2	84.5	83.7	83.8	84.0
MWC Averages			92.6	92.6	92.7	92.7
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	0-0	2-0	128.9	125.3	129.7	128.0
Stanford	0-1	1-1	118.8	116.7	117.9	117.8
Washington St.	0-0	2-0	116.8	114.0	115.9	115.6
Oregon	0-0	2-0	111.1	107.9	110.2	109.7
California	0-0	2-0	99.9	97.3	97.9	98.4
Oregon St.	0-0	1-2	92.8	92.9	91.3	92.3
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	1-0	2-0	122.0	121.3	122.3	121.9
Colorado	0-0	2-0	113.7	111.7	111.5	112.3
U C L A	0-0	2-0	110.2	109.2	109.7	109.7
Utah	0-0	2-0	105.4	107.9	105.7	106.3
Arizona St.	0-0	1-1	100.5	100.9	99.6	100.3
Arizona	0-0	1-1	98.7	97.5	96.6	97.6
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.5	109.0	109.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	0-0	2-0	116.7	117.9	116.8	117.1
Florida	0-0	0-1	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
Tennessee	0-0	2-0	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
Kentucky	0-0	2-0	111.3	109.8	110.8	110.6
Vanderbilt	0-0	2-0	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
S. Carolina	1-0	2-0	108.8	108.0	108.0	108.3
Missouri	0-1	1-1	102.6	99.7	101.3	101.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	0-0	2-0	133.0	128.2	132.0	131.1
Auburn	0-0	1-1	124.0	121.9	123.8	123.2
L S U	0-0	2-0	120.3	118.5	121.0	119.9
Mississippi St.	0-0	2-0	107.0	107.6	107.4	107.3
Arkansas	0-0	1-1	106.7	106.2	106.5	106.5
Ole Miss	0-0	2-0	107.4	106.0	105.8	106.4
Texas A&M	0-0	1-1	105.1	102.7	103.7	103.8
SEC Averages			112.9	111.4	112.2	112.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	0-0	1-1	99.7	96.9	100.2	98.9
Troy	0-0	1-1	93.7	93.9	92.9	93.5
Arkansas St.	0-0	0-1	89.5	91.1	91.2	90.6
N. Mexico St.	0-0	1-1	87.1	84.6	86.6	86.1
UL-Lafayette	0-0	1-1	84.2	85.8	84.0	84.7
S. Alabama	0-0	0-2	83.5	86.4	83.7	84.5
Georgia St.	0-0	0-1	84.5	83.7	84.4	84.2
Idaho	0-0	1-1	82.0	85.0	82.8	83.2
UL-Monroe	0-0	0-1	81.8	82.1	80.3	81.4
Georgia Southern	0-0	0-2	79.9	81.2	79.5	80.2
Coastal Carolina	0-0	1-0	74.8	75.7	76.6	75.7
Texas St.	0-0	1-1	71.5	74.8	70.3	72.2
Sun Belt Averages			84.4	85.1	84.4	84.6

The Conferences Rated

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.9	111.4	112.2	112.2
2	ACC	112.5	111.3	111.8	111.9
3	BIG 12	109.2	109.4	109.4	109.3
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.5	109.0	109.2
5	BIG TEN	108.7	108.6	108.4	108.6
6	AAC	97.6	98.2	98.0	97.9
7	INDEP.	97.9	96.9	98.2	97.7
8	MWC	92.6	92.6	92.7	92.7
9	MAC	88.7	89.7	89.7	89.3
10	Sun Belt	84.4	85.1	84.4	84.6
11	CUSA	83.5	85.4	84.4	84.4

Bowl Projections begin in October

2017 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

The folks around the Atlantic Coast Conference have a decent case to support in the statement that their league, and not the Southeastern Conference, is the supreme college football conference in the land.  Clemson bested Alabama in the National Championship Game.  The ACC went 4-1 against the SEC in bowl games, and the ACC won 10 of 14 games overall against the SEC in 2016.  Five ACC teams finished the season in the top 25.

The 2017 season begins with the SEC just a tiny hair above the ACC in PiRate Ratings averages.  Early games between Alabama and Florida State, Tennessee and Georgia Tech, and Clemson and Auburn will go a long way in determining conference supremacy, and season ending games between Florida and Florida St. Georgia and Georgia Tech, and Louisville and Kentucky will seal the deal if one conference dominates the other.

This league has a little more depth this year.  It may be tougher for any team to go undefeated, as the team with the best quarterback, Louisville with Lamar Jackson, has an average at best defense.  Florida State has the next best quarterback in Deondre Francois, and the Seminoles have a nice stable of running backs.  However, there are some questions at wide receiver, and there could be depth issues in the offensive line.  Clemson still has the overall best combination of offensive and defensive lines, but the defending national champions must replace Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams on the attack side.  Figure CU to average about 10-14 fewer points per game.

While the top three in the Atlantic Division have exceptional talent but with some questions, the other four teams could all be better than last year, especially North Carolina State and Syracuse.

The Coastal Division race should be quite interesting.  Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and even Duke could challenge for the divisional flag.  The league could be just balanced enough so that no ACC team earns a Playoff bid.

Here is how the ACC Media voted in the preseason:

ACC Atlantic Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Florida St.	121	1,108	118
2	Clemson	37	1,007	35
3	Louisville	9	843	7
4	North Carolina St.	0	658	0
5	Wake Forest	0	415	0
6	Syracuse	0	362	0
7	Boston College	0	283	0
ACC Coastal Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Miami (Fla)	103	1,065	3
2	Virginia Tech	40	932	3
3	Georgia Tech	9	708	0
4	Pittsburgh	7	673	0
5	North Carolina	4	606	0
6	Duke	4	473	1
7	Virginia	0	219	0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings still show Clemson to be slightly better than Florida State in the initial ratings of the season.  However, the margin is razor thin, and we expect a lot of shuffling early in the season due to heavy schedules.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	128.4	124.6	127.5	126.8
Florida St.	126.8	124.8	126.1	125.9
Louisville	116.6	115.7	117.0	116.4
N. Carolina St.	115.2	114.5	114.9	114.9
Syracuse	110.3	108.1	109.3	109.2
Wake Forest	102.7	102.2	102.0	102.3
Boston College	102.0	102.9	101.5	102.1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	118.6	116.2	117.7	117.5
Virginia Tech	116.6	116.2	117.0	116.6
Georgia Tech	113.2	110.5	111.3	111.7
N. Carolina	109.9	108.4	108.3	108.9
Pittsburgh	108.8	108.8	108.0	108.5
Duke	106.3	105.1	104.9	105.4
Virginia	98.7	98.8	99.7	99.1
ACC Averages	112.4	111.2	111.8	111.8

Here are our unscientific won-loss predictions and bowl projections for the league.

Atlantic Coast Conference Projected Standings
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Florida St.	7-1	11-2	Peach
Clemson	6-2	10-2	Orange
Louisville	6-2	9-3	Belk
North Carolina St.	5-3	8-4	Sun
Syracuse	3-5	6-6	[Heart of Dallas]
Boston College	1-7	4-8
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Miami (Fla)	6-2	10-3	Music City
Virginia Tech	6-2	10-2	Camping World
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-4	Independence
North Carolina	3-5	7-5	Military
Duke	3-5	6-6	Quick Lane
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7
Virginia	1-7	3-9
Florida St. to win the ACC Championship Game
Notre Dame predicted to take ACC’s bid to the Pinstripe Bowl
Syracuse’s bid to Heart of Dallas Bowl is an at-large bid

Notre Dame qualifies for any ACC Bowl other than the Orange Bowl, if the Irish are within one win of the next available ACC team.  For instance, if Notre Dame goes 8-4, the Irish can leapfrog any 9-3 ACC team in an ACC Bowl.

Notre Dame can also qualify for the Orange Bowl as the replacement for the Big Ten or SEC team.

Later today: We will preview the Southeastern Conference in the afternoon (Eastern Time).  Can a West Division team dethrone Alabama?  Can any team from the West challenge for the SEC Championship?  Can more than one SEC team make this season’s playoffs?  Check back later today.

Coming Tomorrow: It is game week!  There are only five total games involving FBS teams, but it is real, and it counts.  So, we will debut our 2017 PiRate College Football Forecast.  We will show you all 130 teams ranked predictively and retrodictively, give you the spreads for the five games, and give you all of our bowl projections.

There will be no Money Line Parlay suggestions this week with so few games, but when we debut this feature next week, look for it on Friday morning.

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Sunday, March 18, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Louisville	Michigan	4	3	6
Kentucky	Wichita St.	1	1	8
Kansas	Michigan St.	11	8	1
North Carolina	Arkansas	14	10	8
Oregon	Rhode Island	7	6	4
Baylor	USC	17	9	8
Duke	South Carolina	6	6	5
UCLA	Cincinnati	1	1	-1

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:10 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Michigan
2:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Wichita St.
5:15 PM	CBS	Kansas	vs.	Michigan St.
6:10 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Arkansas
7:10 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Rhode Island
7:45 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	USC
8:40 PM	TNT	Duke	vs.	South Carolina
9:40 PM	TBS	UCLA	vs.	Cincinnati

Morning & Afternoon: Swallow Return to Capistrano

Spring Equinox: Monday, March 20, 2017 @ 6:29 AM EDT

 

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-1	3	1
Baylor	New Mexico St.	11	12	13
Arkansas	Seton Hall	2	1	-1
Oregon	Iona	11	12	10
Louisville	Jacksonville St.	18	18	17
SMU	USC	8	8	4
North Carolina	Texas Southern	22	20	19
Creighton	Rhode Island	4	1	2
Kansas	UC-Davis	22	19	18
Dayton	Wichita St.	-7	-5	-1
Duke	Troy	15	16	14
Cincinnati	Kansas St.	2	5	2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	1	2	-2
Kentucky	Northern Kentucky	19	18	13
South Carolina	Marquette	1	-1	1
UCLA	Kent St.	16	14	10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:15 PM	CBS	Michigan	vs.	Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	New Mexico St.
1:30 PM	TNT	Arkansas	vs.	Seton Hall
2:00 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Iona
2:45 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM	truTV	SMU	vs.	USC
4:00 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Texas Southern
4:30 PM	TBS	Creighton	vs.	Rhode Island
6:50 PM	TNT	Kansas	vs.	UC-Davis
7:10 PM	CBS	Dayton	vs.	Wichita St.
7:20 PM	TBS	Duke	vs.	Troy
7:27 PM	truTV	Cincinnati	vs.	Kansas St.
9:20 PM	TNT	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Michigan St.
9:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM	TBS	South Carolina	vs.	Marquette
9:57 PM	truTV	UCLA	vs.	Kent St.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For March 4-5, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, March 4, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Virginia	Pittsburgh	13	15	13
Louisville	Notre Dame	10	9	12
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	10	8	9
Syracuse	Georgia Tech	7	10	6
Clemson	Boston College	14	13	10
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest	2	3	2
North Carolina	Duke	9	7	7
SMU	Memphis	15	16	16
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	5	4	5
Oklahoma	TCU	2	2	-1
Texas	Baylor	-4	-4	-6
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	2	-1	-1
Georgetown	Villanova	-8	-9	-5
St. John’s	Providence	1	-1	-1
DePaul	Xavier	-6	-7	-9
Butler	Seton Hall	10	10	10
Marquette	Creighton	3	3	1
Rutgers	Illinois	-3	-3	-5
Ohio St.	Indiana	2	1	1
Maryland	Michigan St.	4	3	1
Colorado	California	2	-1	-3
Utah	Stanford	10	10	9
Arizona St.	Arizona	-9	-10	-11
Oregon St.	Oregon	-19	-20	-17
USC	Washington	12	12	9
UCLA	Washington St.	24	25	18
Texas A&M	Kentucky	-9	-7	-4
Tennessee	Alabama	4	3	4
Arkansas	Georgia	5	6	2
Vanderbilt	Florida	-6	-7	-3
Auburn	Missouri	10	9	7
LSU	Mississippi St.	-1	-1	1
Ole Miss	South Carolina	-2	-1	-3

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, March 5, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Connecticut	Cincinnati	-6	-7	-4
Iowa	Penn St.	6	5	5
Northwestern	Purdue	1	-4	-4
Wisconsin	Minnesota	5	9	2
Nebraska	Michigan	-4	-7	-1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Villanova
2. Gonzaga
3. North Carolina
4. Kansas
5. Kentucky
6. UCLA
7. Wichita St.
8. Purdue
9. Florida
10. West Virginia
11. Baylor
12. Duke
13. Oregon
14. Louisville
15. Saint Mary’s
16. SMU
17. Florida St.
18. Cincinnati
19. Butler
20. Virginia
21. Iowa St.
22. Oklahoma St.
23. Wisconsin
24. Arizona
25. Creighton

ACC

1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Florida St.
5. Virginia
6. Notre Dame
7. Wake Forest
8. Miami (Fla.)
9. Virginia Tech
10. Syracuse
11. Clemson
12. Georgia Tech
13. Pittsburgh
14. North Carolina St.
15. Boston College

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Iowa St.
5. Oklahoma St.
6. Texas Tech (tie)
7. Kansas St. (tie)
8. TCU
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Butler
3. Creighton
4. Marquette
5. Providence
6. Seton Hall
7. Xavier
8. Georgetown
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Purdue
2. Wisconsin
3. Maryland
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan St.
8. Iowa
9. Illinois
10. Indiana
11. Ohio St.
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Pac-12

1. Oregon
2. UCLA
3. Arizona
4. California
5. USC
6. Utah
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Georgia
6. Alabama
7. Vanderbilt
8. Ole Miss
9. Texas A&M
10. Tennessee
11. Auburn
12. Mississippi St.
13. Missouri
14. LSU

Current Bubble Teams

Top 10 Bubble Teams (IN THE DANCE)

1. VCU
2. Providence
3. Seton Hall
4. Marquette
5. Xavier
6. USC
7. Syracuse
8. Wake Forest 
9. Illinois
10. Illinois St.

Top Bubble Teams (OUT OF THE FIELD & NIT-BOUND)

1. California
2. Kansas St.
3. Rhode Island
4. Georgia
5. Houston
6. Georgia Tech
7. Vanderbilt
8. TCU
9. Utah
10. Iowa

Conference Tournament Update

America East Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Vermont	26-5	vs.	8	Maine	7-24	86-41
2	2	Stony Brook	17-12	vs.	7	Binghamton	12-19	70-60
3	3	Albany	19-12	vs.	6	Hartford	9-22	100-71
4	4	New Hampshire	19-11	vs.	5	Md.-Baltimore Co.	18-11	74-65
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Vermont	27-5	vs.	4	New Hampshire	20-11	7:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Stony Brook	18-12	vs.	3	Albany	20-12	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Monday, February 27
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Florida Gulf Coast	23-7	vs.	8	Stetson	11-20	87-57
2	2	Lipscomb	19-12	vs.	7	NJIT	11-19	97-66
3	3	North Florida	13-18	vs.	6	Jacksonville	17-14	77-74
4	4	USC-Upstate	17-14	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	13-17	78-80
Semifinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
5	1	Florida Gulf Coast	24-7	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	14-17	74-62
6	2	Lipscomb	20-12	vs.	3	North Florida	14-18	85-91
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	1	Florida Gulf Coast	25-7	vs.	3	North Florida	15-18	3:00 PM	ESPN
Big South Conference Tournament–1st Round & Championship at Higher Seed, Middle 2 Rounds at #1 Winthrop
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Campbell	14-16	vs.	10	Presbyterian	5-24	81-62
2	8	Charleston Southern	11-18	vs.	9	Longwood	6-23	79-74
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	2	UNC-Asheville	23-8	vs.	7	Campbell	15-16	79-81
4	3	Liberty	19-12	vs.	6	Radford	13-17	52-56
5	1	Winthrop	23-6	vs.	8	Charleston Southern	12-18	92-78
6	4	Gardner-Webb	18-13	vs.	5	High Point	15-15	91-55
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	6	Radford	14-17	vs.	7	Campbell	16-16	6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	1	Winthrop	24-6	vs.	4	Gardner-Webb	19-13	8:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament–Charleston, SC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Hofstra	15-16	vs.	9	Delaware	12-19	6:00 PM	CAA.tv
2	7	James Madison	9-22	vs.	10	Drexel	9-22	8:30 PM	CAA.tv
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	UNC-Wilmington	26-5	vs.				12:00 PM	Comcast SN
4	4	William & Mary	16-13	vs.	5	Elon	18-13	2:30 PM	Comcast SN
5	2	College of Charleston	23-8	vs.				6:00 PM	Comcast SN
6	3	Towson St.	19-12	vs.	6	Northeastern	15-15	8:30 PM	Comcast SN
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		2:00 PM	Comcast SN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		4:30 PM	Comcast SN
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	CBSSN
Horizon League Tournament (Motor City Madness)–Detroit
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	7	Detroit Mercy	8-22	vs.	10	Milwaukee	8-23	5:30 PM	ESPN3
2	8	Cleveland St.	9-21	vs.	9	Youngstown St.	11-20	8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	Oakland	24-7	vs.		Game 2 winner		5:30 PM	ESPN3
4	2	Valparaiso	24-7	vs.		Game 1 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	3	Green Bay	18-12	vs.	6	Illinois-Chicago	14-17	5:00 PM	ESPN3
6	4	Northern Kentucky	21-10	vs.	5	Wright St.	20-11	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:00 PM	ESPNU
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 5 winner		9:30 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament at Albany (Siena)
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Quinnipiac	10-20	vs.	9	Niagara	9-22	69-88
2	7	Canisius	17-14	vs.	10	Marist	8-23	77-73
3	6	Rider	17-14	vs.	11	Manhattan	10-21	69-68
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	1	Mounmouth	26-5	vs.	9	Niagara	10-22	7:00 PM	ESPN3
5	2	St. Peter’s	18-12	vs.	7	Canisius	18-14	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
6	3	Iona	19-12	vs.	6	Rider	18-14	7:00 PM	ESPN3
7	4	Siena	15-16	vs.	5	Fairfield	16-13	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round–Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		4:30 PM	ESPN3
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
10		Game 8 winner		vs.		Game 9 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2
Mideast Athletic Conference Tournament at Norfolk, VA (Norfolk St.)
1st Round, Day 1–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	5	Maryland-Eastern Shore	12-19	vs.	12	N. Carolina A&T	3-28	5:00 PM	ESPN3
2	6	Coppin St.	8-23	vs.	11	Howard	8-23	7:00 PM	ESPN3
1st Round, Day 2–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	8	Delaware St.	10-21	vs.	9	Bethune-Cookman	9-21	4:00 PM	ESPN3
4	7	South Carolina St.	10-19	vs.	10	Florida A&M	7-22	6:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round. Day 1, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	UNC-Central	22-8	vs.		Game 3 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Norfolk St.	15-15	vs.		Game 4 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round. Day 2, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	3	Morgan St.	14-15	vs.		Game 2 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	4	Hampton	14-15	vs.		Game 1 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
10		Game 6 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN2
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (Arch Madness) at St. Louis
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Evansville	15-16	vs.	9	Indiana St.	11-19	83-72
2	7	Bradley	12-19	vs.	10	Drake	7-23	67-58
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	Illinois St.	25-5	vs.	8	Evansville	16-16	1:00 PM	MVC TV
4	4	Southern Illinois	16-15	vs.	5	Loyola (Chi.)	18-13	3:30 PM	MVC TV
5	2	Wichita St.	27-4	vs.	7	Bradley	13-19	7:00 PM	MVC TV
6	3	Northern Iowa	14-15	vs.	6	Missouri St.	16-15	9:30 PM	MVC TV
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		3:30 PM	CBSSN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		6:00 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		2:00 PM	CBS
Northeast Conference Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Mount St. Mary’s	16-15	vs.	8	Sacred Heart	13-18	76-73
2	2	Long Island	20-11	vs.	7	Robert Morris	13-18	68-69
3	3	Wagner	15-13	vs.	6	Fairleigh-Dickinson	11-18	72-70
4	4	St. Francis (PA)	14-15	vs.	5	Bryant	12-19	100-78
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Mount St. Mary’s	17-15	vs.	7	Robert Morris	14-18	12 or 2 PM	MSG/FCS
6	3	Wagner	16-13	vs.	4	St. Francis (PA)	15-15	12 or 2 PM	MSG/FCS
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament at Nashville
1st Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	5	Southeast Missouri	14-17	vs.	8	Tennessee St.	17-12	78-75 ot
2	6	Tennessee Tech	12-19	vs.	7	Murray St.	14-16	84-85 2ot
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	4	Jacksonville St.	17-14	vs.	5	Southeast Missouri	15-17	74-51
4	3	Morehead St.	14-15	vs.	7	Murray St.	15-16	69-75
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Belmont	22-5	vs.	4	Jacksonville St.	18-14	7:30 PM	ESPNU
6	2	UT-Martin	20-11	vs.	7	Murray St.	16-16	10:00 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN2
Patriot League Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Loyola (MD.)	14-15	vs.	10	Lafayette	9-20	67-64
2	8	Army	12-18	vs.	9	American	8-21	74-58
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	2	Boston U	23-8	vs.	7	Loyola (MD.)	15-15	64-60
4	3	Lehigh	19-12	vs.	6	Colgate	10-21	77-72
5	1	Bucknell	23-6	vs.	8	Army	13-18	78-62
6	4	Navy	18-13	vs.	5	Holy Cross	15-16	49-42
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	2	Boston U	24-8	vs.	3	Lehigh	20-12	12 or 2 PM	CBSSN
8	1	Bucknell	24-6	vs.	4	Navy	19-13	12 or 2 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:30 PM	CBSSN
Southern Conference Tournament–Asheville, NC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Western Carolina	9-22	vs.	9	The Citadel	11-20	5:00 PM	ESPN3
2	7	Samford	17-14	vs.	10	VMI	6-23	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	UNC-Greensboro	23-8	vs.		Game 1 winner		12:00 PM	ESPN3
4	4	Chattanooga	19-11	vs.	5	Wofford	15-16	2:30 PM	ESPN3
5	2	Furman	21-10	vs.		Game 2 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
6	3	East Tennessee St.	24-7	vs.	6	Mercer	15-16	8:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		5:00 PM	ESPN3
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN2
Summit League Tournament–Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	South Dakota	21-10		8	Western Illinois	8-19	7:00 PM	ESPN3
2	2	North Dakota St.	19-10		7	IUPUI	13-17	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	4	South Dakota St.	15-16		5	Denver	16-13	7:00 PM	ESPN3
4	3	Omaha	16-13		6	Fort Wayne	19-11	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Game 1 winner				Game 3 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
6		Game 2 winner				Game 4 winner		9:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2
West Coast Conference Tournament at Las Vegas
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Pepperdine	9-21	vs.	9	Pacific	10-21	BYUtv	9:00 PM
2	7	San Diego	13-17	vs.	10	Portland	10-21	BYUtv	11:00 PM
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	3	BYU	21-10	vs.	6	Loyola Marymount	15-14	4:00 PM	BYUtv
4	4	Santa Clara	16-15	vs.	5	San Francisco	20-11	6:00 PM	BYUtv
5	1	Gonzaga	29-1	vs.		Game 1 winner		10:00 PM	ESPN2
6	2	Saint Mary’s	26-3	vs.		Game 2 winner		12:00 AM	ESPN2
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN