The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 7, 2023

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Schedules

All Times Eastern Standard

America East Conference — Higher Seed Hosts

Semifinals (ESPN+)

#1 Vermont (21-10) vs. #5 Binghamton (13-17) 7 PM

#2 UMass Lowell (25-7) vs. #3 New Hampshire (15-14) 6 PM

Atlantic 10 Conference — Brooklyn

1st Round (ESPN+)

#12 Richmond (14-17) vs. #13 Massachusetts (15-15) 11:30 AM

#10 Saint Joseph’s (14-16) vs. #15 Loyola (MD) (10-20) 2 PM

#11 La Salle (13-18) vs. #14 Rhode Island (9-21) 4:30 PM

Atlantic Coast Conference — Greensboro, NC

1st Round (ACCN)

#12 Florida St. (9-22) vs. #13 Georgia Tech (14-17) 2PM

#10 Boston College (15-16) vs. #15 Louisville (4-27) 4:30 PM

#11 Virginia Tech (18-13) vs. #14 Notre Dame (11-20) 7 PM

Big Sky Conference — Boise, ID


#4 Montana (17-13) vs. #9 Northern Arizona (11-22) 8:30 PM ESPNU

#2 Montana St. (23-9) vs. #3 Weber St. (18-14) 11 PM ESPN2

Big West Conference — Henderson, NV (Las Vegas)

1st Round (ESPN+)

#8 Cal St. Bakersfield (10-21) vs. #9 Cal St. Northridge (7-24) 9 PM

#7 Long Beach St. (17-15) vs. #10 Cal Poly (7-24) 11:30 PM

Colonial Athletic Association — Washington, D.C.


#2 Charleston (30-3) vs. #4 UNC Wilmington (24-9) 7 PM

Horizon League — Indianapolis


#3 Cleveland St. (21-12) vs. #4 Northern Kentucky (21-12) 7 PM

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference — Atlantic City, NJ

1st Round (ESPN+)

#8 Mount St. Mary’s (12-19) vs. #9 Canisius (10-19) 5 PM

#7 Fairfield (13-17) vs. #10 Saint Peter’s (12-17) 7 PM

#6 Manhattan (12-17) vs. #11 Marist (10-19) 9 PM

Northeast Conference — Higher Seed Hosts


#1 Merrimack (17-16) vs. #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (19-14) 7 PM

Merrimack is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament

FDU has already won the league’s automatic bid

Southland Conference — Lake Charles, LA


#1 Texas A&M-CC (21-10) vs. #8 McNeese St. (11-22) 6:30 PM ESPNU

#2 Northwestern St. (21-10) vs. #7 New Orleans (12-19) 9PM ESPN+

Summit League — Sioux Falls, SD


#1 Oral Roberts (29-4) vs. #3 North Dakota St. (16-16) 9 PM

West Coast Conference — Las Vegas


#1 Saint Mary’s (26-6) vs. #2 Gonzaga (27-5) 9 PM

Western Athletic Conference — Las Vegas

1st Round (ESPN+)

#8 Cal Baptist (16-15) vs. #9 Abilene Christian (13-16) 3 PM

#5 Grand Canyon (20-11) vs. #12 UT-Arlington (11-20) 5 PM

#7 Tarleton (16-15) vs. #10 UT-Rio Grande Valley (15-16) 9 PM

#6 Stephen F. Austin (19-12) vs. #11 Utah Tech (13-18) 11 PM

This tournament is seeded by KenPom Ratings rather than standings

Still to Come Today: Updated Bracketology

December 31, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, December 31, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:00 am
Saturday, December 31, 2022
Abilene ChristianTarleton St.2.1
Air ForceNevada-3.6
AlbanyNew Hampshire1.2
Arizona St.Arizona-5.2
Arkansas St.Louisiana Monroe4.4
BradleyIllinois Chicago13.8
Cal St. BakersfieldUC Irvine-9.6
Cal St. FullertonCal St. Northridge7.1
Central Connecticut St.St. Francis (NY)1.4
Charleston SouthernUSC Upstate1.9
CharlotteLouisiana Tech6.1
Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern4.0
Colorado St.San Jose St.7.9
DenverOral Roberts-9.3
DrexelWilliam & Mary8.3
DukeFlorida St.15.9
DuquesneRhode Island7.3
Eastern IllinoisSouthern Indiana-5.0
Eastern KentuckyQueens-0.8
Florida Gulf CoastJacksonville5.0
George MasonRichmond1.4
Georgia St.South Alabama-1.4
Georgia TechVirginia-7.4
HawaiiCal Poly10.7
High PointGardner Webb-0.5
HofstraNorth Carolina A&T11.5
HoustonCentral Florida16.0
Idaho St.Northern Colorado-0.2
Illinois St.Northern Iowa-0.7
Iowa St.Baylor-1.6
IUPUINorthern Kentucky-13.1
KansasOklahoma St.8.9
Kansas St.West Virginia-0.5
Kennesaw St.Central Arkansas10.7
LamarMcNeese St.-1.7
LindenwoodTennessee Tech-0.6
Long Beach St.UC Riverside0.9
Long IslandSacred Heart-3.2
Loyola (Chi)George Washington7.1
MarshallJames Madison1.4
Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky3.8
Montana St.Eastern Washington5.0
New Mexico St.Sam Houston-1.1
NiagaraMount St. Mary’s1.8
NJITUMass Lowell-11.1
North FloridaAustin Peay3.3
North TexasFlorida Int’l.16.7
NortheasternStony Brook7.2
Northwestern St.Texas A&M-CC1.3
OaklandGreen Bay11.4
Old DominionLouisiana1.3
OregonOregon St.15.9
PacificLoyola Marymount-6.8
Robert MorrisCleveland St,2.4
Sacramento St.Portland St.1.7
Saint Joseph’sSaint Louis-6.4
San FranciscoSan Diego9.4
Santa ClaraSaint Mary’s-5.6
SeattleCal Baptist4.2
Seton HallSt. John’s2.0
South DakotaWestern Illinois2.5
South Dakota St.St. Thomas3.3
Southeast Missouri St.SIU Edwardsville-2.0
Southern Miss.Appalachian St.7.2
Southern UtahUT Rio Grande Valley13.7
St. BonaventureMassachusetts0.4
St. Francis PAStonehill1.8
SyracuseBoston College8.7
TCUTexas Tech2.2
Tennessee St.Little Rock3.6
Texas A&M-CommerceIncarnate Word8.3
Texas St.Troy-2.7
The CitadelSamford-3.4
UC Santa BarbaraUC San Diego12.0
UNC WilmingtonHampton17.2
UNLVSan Diego St-2.6
UT ArlingtonStephen F. Austin-3.2
UT MartinMorehead St.1.9
Utah St.Fresno St.13.1
Utah ValleyUtah Tech8.4
VCULa Salle11.1
VMIEast Tennessee St.-2.0
Wake ForestVirginia Tech-2.3
Weber St.Northern Arizona6.0
Western CarolinaFurman-9.7
Wichita St.East Carolina9.7
WinthropUNC Asheville0.2
WoffordUNC Greensboro1.3
WyomingNew Mexico-4.3
Youngstown St.Purdue Ft. Wayne3.3

October 27, 2022

PiRate Picks — October 27, 2022

Due to overwhelming new scheduling issues, this feature is truncated this week.

Selection #1: 3, team 10-point Teaser (-130)

Miami (O) + 1 1/2 vs. Akron

Penn St. + 25 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

Virginia + 11 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla)

Selection #2: Money Line Parlay @ +169.53

South Carolina over Missouri

SMU over Tulsa

Selection #3: Money Line Parlay @ +166.75

North Carolina over Pittsburgh

Wake Forest over Louisville

August 16, 2022

Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

With all the rumored movement of teams from one conference to another, for now the Atlantic Coast Conference appears to be on solid ground. The league’s Grant of Rights deal with its members make it quite difficult, if not impossible for teams to exit the league. Under this deal, any team would have to forfeit all media revenue earned in another conference back to the ACC. An exit fee of $100 million or more would make leaving the ACC for the SEC or Big Ten financially unwise.

Of course, there are always loopholes that can be discovered by crafty legal departments, so impossible is not in the college football vocabulary. Impossible was a word associated with the words “beating Clemson” until last year. The Tigers failed to win the Atlantic Division for the first time 2014. Wake Forest was the surprise winner in the Atlantic, while Pittsburgh won the Coastal Division title. Wake Forest figured to be a contender for the division title again this year until last week, their starting quarterback, Sam Hartman, was ruled out indefinitely due to a non-football issue that required a surgical procedure. Hartman might return late in the season, but his loss will hit the Demon Deacons hard enough to take them out of the conference championship picture.

2022 will be the final year of divisional play in this league. Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the league.

ACC Preseason PiRate Ratings

Atlantic Division
NC State118.3117.3118.5118.0
Wake Forest113.9113.2113.2113.4
Florida St.111.7111.0110.9111.2
Boston College100.5102.5100.2101.1
Coastal Division
Miami (Fla.)115.1113.7114.9114.6
North Carolina108.0108.2107.5107.9
Virginia Tech100.9101.398.4100.2
Georgia Tech95.695.593.694.9

Preseason Official ACC Media Poll

#Atlantic1st PlaceOverall
2North Carolina St.44959
3Wake Forest6783
5Florida St.2509
6Boston College1469
#Coastal1st PlaceOverall
3North Carolina18823
5Virginia Tech3592
6Georgia Tech1343
North Carolina St.38
Wake Forest4
Florida St.2
North Carolina2
Boston College1
Poll Taken Prior To Hartman’s Non-Football Medical Condition

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

North Carolina St.7-111-1
Wake Forest4-48-4
Florida St.4-47-5
Boston College1-74-8
Virginia Tech4-48-4
North Carolina4-47-5
Georgia Tech1-72-10

Clemson picked to win ACC Championship Game

January 19, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
UNC AshevilleNorth Carolina A&T5.6
FloridaMississippi St.4.7
Rhode IslandLa Salle14.9
Saint Joseph’sGeorge Washington10.4
Loyola (MD)Boston U-0.8
CreightonSt. John’s4.0
Gardner-WebbUSC Upstate10.9
Charleston SouthernHigh Point-7.0
LouisvilleBoston College7.4
NC St.Virginia Tech-4.1
Georgia TechWake Forest-3.4
BinghamtonStony Brook-1.8
HartfordNew Hampshire-2.9
UMass LowellMaine13.4
Maryland-Baltimore Co.Albany5.5
ValparaisoNorthern Iowa-4.5
FurmanWestern Carolina15.0
East Tennessee St.Mercer4.0
WoffordThe Citadel12.6
Oklahoma St.TCU5.7
Southern IllinoisIndiana St.4.8
Missouri St.Illinois St.11.7
Texas A&MKentucky-8.0
WyomingSan Jose St.18.2
Colorado St.New Mexico15.8

Coming later today: Our fourth annual Top 20 Coaches Ready For Prime Time. You will see some familiar names, but you are going to see some names you may not know, including one coach from the Division 2 ranks.

January 2, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, January 2, 2022

Boston CollegeNorth Carolina-6.4
DaytonSt. Bonaventure0.5
NorthwesternMichigan St.-1.6
SMUCentral Florida0.7
St. LouisRichmond3.6
Rhode IslandLaSalle14.9
Penn St.Indiana-3.5
Georgia TechLouisville-3.0
CaliforniaArizona St.1.5
NebraskaOhio St.-11.3

March 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings Final Bracketology Prediction

2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaHouston
3Oklahoma St.ArkansasKansasTexas
4West VirginiaPurdueVirginiaFlorida St.
5TennesseeVillanovaCreightonTexas Tech
8ConnecticutSan Diego St.WisconsinFlorida
9Virginia TechLoyola (Chi.)Georgia TechNorth Carolina
10RutgersSt. BonaventureMarylandVCU
11LouisvilleMichigan St.UCLASyracuseUtah St.Drake
12Oregon St.GeorgetownNorth TexasWinthrop
13Ohio ULibertyUNCGUCSB
14ColgateMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.DrexelGrand CanyonIona
16Oral RobertsHartfordNorfolk St.Mount St. Mary’sTexas SouthernAppalachian St.

1st Four Out

69Wichita St.
70Colorado St.
71Saint Louis
72Boise St.

1st 4 Games

11 UCLA vs. 11 Drake

11 Syracuse vs. 11 Utah St.

16 Norfolk St. vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s

16 Texas Southern vs. 16 Appalachian St.

March 11, 2021

A Quick Look At The Bubble

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:39 am

Thursday, March 11 Prior To Start of Today’s Games

It’s just a little more than 80 hours until the Selection Sunday bids are announced. We will have our final bracketology Sunday around 4 PM EST, unless there is a final tournament game that would affect the seeding.

As of this morning, here is our look at the teams in the gray area, on the bubble.

Let’s start with the teams that we believe are currently in the field if the bids were awarded today, but that are vulnerable to being bumped if other teams play their way into the field.

Louisville: The Cardinals lost in their first ACC Tournament game to fellow bubbler Duke. The Cardinals took a 6-spot dive in the Net Ratings after the loss, and they are in jeopardy of falling out of the tournament if a host of teams play their way in. At 13-7, they finished the season 4-6. UL won just one Quad 1 game, but they were 6-1 in Quad 2 games. Their chances of making the field are still about 85-90%, but they could find themselves playing that extra at-large play-in game.

Xavier: The Musketeers are in a much more precarious position following their immediate Big East Tournament ouster. Xavier fell to 62 in the Net, and they too finished 4-6 after starting 9-2. If a couple of teams still playing advance a couple rounds in their tournaments, it could be lights out for the Musketeers. Their chances of making the field are close to 50-50 today.

Drake: The Bulldogs lost to Loyola in the Arch Madness Championship Game to finish 23-4 with two losses to the Ramblers. A #45 Net with a 6-2 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, including one win over Loyola should be enough to keep Drake in a safe spot in this field. Their chances of making the field are about 95%.

Wichita St.: The Selection Committee does not compare teams within the same conference in theory, but when looking at each team’s resumes, they are basically forced to look at who they beat and didn’t beat, and obviously more games are played in-conference, especially this season. Wichita St. is rated behind Memphis in the Net, and their 13-4 record includes a 9-0 mark against Quad 3 & 4 teams. On the plus side, the Shockers finished 9-1 with a win over Houston. The Shockers need to make it to at least the semifinals of the AAC Tournament; a loss to the USF-Temple winner would really jeopardize their tournament hopes. On the good side, Wichita looks to have an express seeding to the AAC Championship Game, so we give them a better than 50-50 chance to Dance.

Syracuse: Yesterday’s pasting of potential Bubble team North Carolina St. has given the Orangemen a legitimate shot to make the field with an upset of Virginia today. SU is now at 39 in the Net. A 1-6 Quad 1 record is poor, but the 5-1 Quad 2 has the Orangemen in position to move into the at-large positive category with a win today. A loss to the Cavs would not totally eliminate SU, depending on what happens in other tournaments. We give SU a 55% chance of making the field. If they stay in the top 40 of the Net, they should get in.

Boise St.: The Mountain West Conference has four teams competing for bids. There might be three awarded. Boise State has 2 Quad 1 wins, and their Net is currently 43. A win over Nevada today is mandatory. If they get that win, then a decent showing against San Diego State tomorrow should be satisfactory. We give BSU a 55-60% chance of making the field.

Colorado St.: Wins at San Diego St. and at Utah St. had the Rams at the top of the MWC in January, but CSU has swooned since and is in danger of playing themselves out of the field. With a Net of 50, a quarterfinal round loss to Fresno St. today would be a dagger in their hearts or dancing shoes. The Rams must win today, and then they might have to beat the Utah St.-UNLV winner tomorrow. If they play USU, it could be an eliminator game.

UCLA: The Bruins are March Madness royalty. The humans on the Selection Committee will find a way to justify placing them in the Dance. A quarterfinal win in the Pac-12 Tournament would more than suffice along with their moving into the top 40 in the Net. UCLA has a 75-80% chance to make the field.

Michigan St.: The Spartans will be hurt if the Net Ratings prove to be as important as the first 16-team pre-selection made by the Committee a month ago. MSU is a low 67 in the Net, but they are coming off a win over 1-seed line Michigan and have 5 Quad 1 wins. The Big Ten schedule, along with a win at Duke, should be enough for Sparty to celebrate with a Dance ticket on Sunday. A win over Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament sets it in stone.

Ole Miss: The Rebels have work to do. They would not be in the field if the Selections were made today, but Ole Miss has a path to get in. They absolutely must defeat South Carolina today and then will have to upset LSU tomorrow to raise their Net of 53 up to the low 40’s at worst. Two wins over Missouri and one over Tennessee are not enough to warrant their selection. Their chances of making the Dance are around 30%.

Utah St.: The Aggies are just outside the Field today, but they swept San Diego State and have a resume ready to move them into the field with a win over UNLV today and then a win over Colorado State in a knockout game tomorrow. If they don’t win two games, they lose out.

SMU: The Mustangs need a lot of help to get in. Teams above them on this list have to play their way out of the field, and SMU needs to do damage in the AAC Tournament, maybe make it to the Championship Game against Houston (not Memphis). A 55 Net is too low to warrant a bid. Their chance to get in is about 20%.

Memphis: It’s awful that the only a desperation heave at the basket by an out of control Houston player could keep the Tigers out of the field. Memphis had a chance to move up into the 40’s in the Net and now sits at 52, which is not good enough. Memphis will have to make it to the Championship Game of the AAC Tournament and face Wichita State in that game to still have an at-large shot. More realistically, the Tigers may need to qualify automatically at this point.

Seton Hall & St. John’s: These two teams face off today in the Big East Tournament. The winner stays alive, while the loser can only think about NIT Selection. The winner still has work to do, maybe needing another tournament win, especially over top-seed Villanova. If Georgetown beats the Hoyas today, then the winner of the SH-SJ game must beat GU tomorrow. St. John’s might still need one more win after that.

Duke: The Eastern equivalent of UCLA, the Blue Devils are March Madness royalty. Like a heavyweight champion in a boxing match, if it goes 15 rounds, the champion will at the least win on a split decision. Duke will qualify for that split decision today if they beat Florida St. The Committee will invent the reason to leapfrog the Blue Devils over eight teams to get them in the Field. A loss today would make them 13-12 with a Net in the 50’s, so they need that win today.

Saint Louis: The Billikens were greatly harmed by a multiple-game cancellation in the regular season. Wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure in the regular season are not going to be enough, and SLU lost to the Bonnies in the A-10 Tournament. It’s not going to be a happy Sunday in the Gateway to the West.

February 23, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:27 am

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

VCUSaint Louis2.6
Virginia TechGeorgia Tech2.1
LouisvilleNotre Dame2.3
LibertyNorth Alabama14.8
TCUWest Virginia-9.6
BaylorIowa St.25.6
Kansas St.Oklahoma-12.9
VillanovaSt. John’s8.4
CampbellHigh Point3.7
Michigan St.Illinois-9.2
NebraskaPenn St.-6.4
Central MichiganMiami (O)-3.3
Northern IllinoisBuffalo-13.2
Eastern MichiganBowling Green-6.9
Arizona St.Washington8.0
Georgia St.Appalachian St.6.1
MissouriOle Miss0.1
Prairie View A&MArkansas-Pine Bluff14.3
Texas SouthernMississippi Valley St.26.4
San DiegoPacific-2.7

February 17, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

February 17, 2021

Central FloridaSouth Florida2.2
PittsburghNC St.2.3
North CarolinaNortheastern13.5
Wake ForestDuke-6.8
Kansas St.Kansas-15.4
Seton HallDePaul10.2
Loyola (Chi.)Valparaiso20.7
New MexicoWyoming-2.7
Boise St.Utah St.0.1
USCArizona St.10.7
TennesseeSouth Carolina8.6
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