The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 18, 2017

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:02 pm

Sunday, March 18, 2017

Team Team Red White Blue
Louisville Michigan 4 3 6
Kentucky Wichita St. 1 1 8
Kansas Michigan St. 11 8 1
North Carolina Arkansas 14 10 8
Oregon Rhode Island 7 6 4
Baylor USC 17 9 8
Duke South Carolina 6 6 5
UCLA Cincinnati 1 1 -1

TV Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
12:10 PM CBS Louisville vs. Michigan
2:40 PM CBS Kentucky vs. Wichita St.
5:15 PM CBS Kansas vs. Michigan St.
6:10 PM TNT North Carolina vs. Arkansas
7:10 PM TBS Oregon vs. Rhode Island
7:45 PM truTV Baylor vs. USC
8:40 PM TNT Duke vs. South Carolina
9:40 PM TBS UCLA vs. Cincinnati

Morning & Afternoon: Swallow Return to Capistrano

Spring Equinox: Monday, March 20, 2017 @ 6:29 AM EDT

 

 

March 16, 2017

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:39 am

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team Team Red White Blue
Michigan Oklahoma St. -1 3 1
Baylor New Mexico St. 11 12 13
Arkansas Seton Hall 2 1 -1
Oregon Iona 11 12 10
Louisville Jacksonville St. 18 18 17
SMU USC 8 8 4
North Carolina Texas Southern 22 20 19
Creighton Rhode Island 4 1 2
Kansas UC-Davis 22 19 18
Dayton Wichita St. -7 -5 -1
Duke Troy 15 16 14
Cincinnati Kansas St. 2 5 2
Miami (Fla.) Michigan St. 1 2 -2
Kentucky Northern Kentucky 19 18 13
South Carolina Marquette 1 -1 1
UCLA Kent St. 16 14 10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
12:15 PM CBS Michigan vs. Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM truTV Baylor vs. New Mexico St.
1:30 PM TNT Arkansas vs. Seton Hall
2:00 PM TBS Oregon vs. Iona
2:45 PM CBS Louisville vs. Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM truTV SMU vs. USC
4:00 PM TNT North Carolina vs. Texas Southern
4:30 PM TBS Creighton vs. Rhode Island
6:50 PM TNT Kansas vs. UC-Davis
7:10 PM CBS Dayton vs. Wichita St.
7:20 PM TBS Duke vs. Troy
7:27 PM truTV Cincinnati vs. Kansas St.
9:20 PM TNT Miami (Fla.) vs. Michigan St.
9:40 PM CBS Kentucky vs. Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM TBS South Carolina vs. Marquette
9:57 PM truTV UCLA vs. Kent St.

 

 

 

March 3, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For March 4-5, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Games Scheduled for: Saturday, March 4, 2017
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Virginia Pittsburgh 13 15 13
Louisville Notre Dame 10 9 12
Florida St. Miami (Fla.) 10 8 9
Syracuse Georgia Tech 7 10 6
Clemson Boston College 14 13 10
Virginia Tech Wake Forest 2 3 2
North Carolina Duke 9 7 7
SMU Memphis 15 16 16
Kansas St. Texas Tech 5 4 5
Oklahoma TCU 2 2 -1
Texas Baylor -4 -4 -6
Oklahoma St. Kansas 2 -1 -1
Georgetown Villanova -8 -9 -5
St. John’s Providence 1 -1 -1
DePaul Xavier -6 -7 -9
Butler Seton Hall 10 10 10
Marquette Creighton 3 3 1
Rutgers Illinois -3 -3 -5
Ohio St. Indiana 2 1 1
Maryland Michigan St. 4 3 1
Colorado California 2 -1 -3
Utah Stanford 10 10 9
Arizona St. Arizona -9 -10 -11
Oregon St. Oregon -19 -20 -17
USC Washington 12 12 9
UCLA Washington St. 24 25 18
Texas A&M Kentucky -9 -7 -4
Tennessee Alabama 4 3 4
Arkansas Georgia 5 6 2
Vanderbilt Florida -6 -7 -3
Auburn Missouri 10 9 7
LSU Mississippi St. -1 -1 1
Ole Miss South Carolina -2 -1 -3

 

Games Scheduled for: Sunday, March 5, 2017
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Connecticut Cincinnati -6 -7 -4
Iowa Penn St. 6 5 5
Northwestern Purdue 1 -4 -4
Wisconsin Minnesota 5 9 2
Nebraska Michigan -4 -7 -1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

  1. Villanova
  2. Gonzaga
  3. North Carolina
  4. Kansas
  5. Kentucky
  6. UCLA
  7. Wichita St.
  8. Purdue
  9. Florida
  10. West Virginia
  11. Baylor
  12. Duke
  13. Oregon
  14. Louisville
  15. Saint Mary’s
  16. SMU
  17. Florida St.
  18. Cincinnati
  19. Butler
  20. Virginia
  21. Iowa St.
  22. Oklahoma St.
  23. Wisconsin
  24. Arizona
  25. Creighton

ACC

  1. North Carolina
  2. Duke
  3. Louisville
  4. Florida St.
  5. Virginia
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Wake Forest
  8. Miami (Fla.)
  9. Virginia Tech
  10. Syracuse
  11. Clemson
  12. Georgia Tech
  13. Pittsburgh
  14. North Carolina St.
  15. Boston College

Big 12

  1. Kansas
  2. West Virginia
  3. Baylor
  4. Iowa St.
  5. Oklahoma St.
  6. Texas Tech (tie)
  7. Kansas St. (tie)
  8. TCU
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Texas

Big East

  1. Villanova
  2. Butler
  3. Creighton
  4. Marquette
  5. Providence
  6. Seton Hall
  7. Xavier
  8. Georgetown
  9. St. John’s
  10. DePaul

Big Ten

  1. Purdue
  2. Wisconsin
  3. Maryland
  4. Minnesota
  5. Michigan
  6. Northwestern
  7. Michigan St.
  8. Iowa
  9. Illinois
  10. Indiana
  11. Ohio St.
  12. Penn St.
  13. Nebraska
  14. Rutgers

Pac-12

  1. Oregon
  2. UCLA
  3. Arizona
  4. California
  5. USC
  6. Utah
  7. Colorado
  8. Stanford
  9. Arizona St.
  10. Washington
  11. Washington St.
  12. Oregon St.

SEC

  1. Kentucky
  2. Florida
  3. South Carolina
  4. Arkansas
  5. Georgia
  6. Alabama
  7. Vanderbilt
  8. Ole Miss
  9. Texas A&M
  10. Tennessee
  11. Auburn
  12. Mississippi St.
  13. Missouri
  14. LSU

Current Bubble Teams

Top 10 Bubble Teams (IN THE DANCE)

  1. VCU
  2. Providence
  3. Seton Hall
  4. Marquette
  5. Xavier
  6. USC
  7. Syracuse
  8. Wake Forest 
  9. Illinois
  10. Illinois St.

Top Bubble Teams (OUT OF THE FIELD & NIT-BOUND)

  1. California
  2. Kansas St.
  3. Rhode Island
  4. Georgia
  5. Houston
  6. Georgia Tech
  7. Vanderbilt
  8. TCU
  9. Utah
  10. Iowa

Conference Tournament Update

America East Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 1 Vermont 26-5 vs. 8 Maine 7-24 86-41  
2 2 Stony Brook 17-12 vs. 7 Binghamton 12-19 70-60  
3 3 Albany 19-12 vs. 6 Hartford 9-22 100-71  
4 4 New Hampshire 19-11 vs. 5 Md.-Baltimore Co. 18-11 74-65  
                   
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
5 1 Vermont 27-5 vs. 4 New Hampshire 20-11 7:00 PM ESPN3
6 2 Stony Brook 18-12 vs. 3 Albany 20-12 7:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 5 winner       Game 6 winner   11:00 AM ESPN2
  * This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
                   
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Monday, February 27
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 1 Florida Gulf Coast 23-7 vs. 8 Stetson 11-20 87-57  
2 2 Lipscomb 19-12 vs. 7 NJIT 11-19 97-66  
3 3 North Florida 13-18 vs. 6 Jacksonville 17-14 77-74  
4 4 USC-Upstate 17-14 vs. 5 Kennesaw St. 13-17 78-80  
                   
Semifinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
5 1 Florida Gulf Coast 24-7 vs. 5 Kennesaw St. 14-17 74-62  
6 2 Lipscomb 20-12 vs. 3 North Florida 14-18 85-91  
                   
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7 1 Florida Gulf Coast 25-7 vs. 3 North Florida 15-18 3:00 PM ESPN
                   
Big South Conference Tournament–1st Round & Championship at Higher Seed, Middle 2 Rounds at #1 Winthrop
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28 (at Higher Seed)
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 7 Campbell 14-16 vs. 10 Presbyterian 5-24 81-62  
2 8 Charleston Southern 11-18 vs. 9 Longwood 6-23 79-74  
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2 (at Winthrop)
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
3 2 UNC-Asheville 23-8 vs. 7 Campbell 15-16 79-81  
4 3 Liberty 19-12 vs. 6 Radford 13-17 52-56  
5 1 Winthrop 23-6 vs. 8 Charleston Southern 12-18 92-78  
6 4 Gardner-Webb 18-13 vs. 5 High Point 15-15 91-55  
                   
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3 (at Winthrop)
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7 6 Radford 14-17 vs. 7 Campbell 16-16 6:00 PM ESPN3
8 1 Winthrop 24-6 vs. 4 Gardner-Webb 19-13 8:00 PM ESPN3
                   
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   1:00 PM ESPN
                   
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament–Charleston, SC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 8 Hofstra 15-16 vs. 9 Delaware 12-19 6:00 PM CAA.tv
2 7 James Madison 9-22 vs. 10 Drexel 9-22 8:30 PM CAA.tv
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 1 UNC-Wilmington 26-5 vs.       12:00 PM Comcast SN
4 4 William & Mary 16-13 vs. 5 Elon 18-13 2:30 PM Comcast SN
5 2 College of Charleston 23-8 vs.       6:00 PM Comcast SN
6 3 Towson St. 19-12 vs. 6 Northeastern 15-15 8:30 PM Comcast SN
                   
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 3 winner   vs.   Game 4 winner   2:00 PM Comcast SN
8   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   4:30 PM Comcast SN
                   
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   7:00 PM CBSSN
                   
Horizon League Tournament (Motor City Madness)–Detroit
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 7 Detroit Mercy 8-22 vs. 10 Milwaukee 8-23 5:30 PM ESPN3
2 8 Cleveland St. 9-21 vs. 9 Youngstown St. 11-20 8:00 PM ESPN3
                   
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 1 Oakland 24-7 vs.   Game 2 winner   5:30 PM ESPN3
4 2 Valparaiso 24-7 vs.   Game 1 winner   8:00 PM ESPN3
                   
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
5 3 Green Bay 18-12 vs. 6 Illinois-Chicago 14-17 5:00 PM ESPN3
6 4 Northern Kentucky 21-10 vs. 5 Wright St. 20-11 7:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 3 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   7:00 PM ESPNU
8   Game 4 winner   vs.   Game 5 winner   9:30 PM ESPNU
                   
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   7:00 PM ESPN
                   
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament at Albany (Siena)
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 8 Quinnipiac 10-20 vs. 9 Niagara 9-22 69-88  
2 7 Canisius 17-14 vs. 10 Marist 8-23 77-73  
3 6 Rider 17-14 vs. 11 Manhattan 10-21 69-68  
                   
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Friday, March 3
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
4 1 Mounmouth 26-5 vs. 9 Niagara 10-22 7:00 PM ESPN3
5 2 St. Peter’s 18-12 vs. 7 Canisius 18-14 9:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
6 3 Iona 19-12 vs. 6 Rider 18-14 7:00 PM ESPN3
7 4 Siena 15-16 vs. 5 Fairfield 16-13 9:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Semifinal Round–Sunday, March 5
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
8   Game 4 winner   vs.   Game 7 winner   4:30 PM ESPN3
9   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   7:00 PM ESPN3
                   
Championship Game–Monday, March 6
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
10   Game 8 winner   vs.   Game 9 winner   9:00 PM ESPN2
                   
Mideast Athletic Conference Tournament at Norfolk, VA (Norfolk St.)
1st Round, Day 1–Monday, March 6
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 5 Maryland-Eastern Shore 12-19 vs. 12 N. Carolina A&T 3-28 5:00 PM ESPN3
2 6 Coppin St. 8-23 vs. 11 Howard 8-23 7:00 PM ESPN3
                   
1st Round, Day 2–Tuesday, March 7
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 8 Delaware St. 10-21 vs. 9 Bethune-Cookman 9-21 4:00 PM ESPN3
4 7 South Carolina St. 10-19 vs. 10 Florida A&M 7-22 6:00 PM ESPN3
                   
Quarterfinal Round. Day 1, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
5 1 UNC-Central 22-8 vs.   Game 3 winner   6:00 PM ESPN3
6 2 Norfolk St. 15-15 vs.   Game 4 winner   8:00 PM ESPN3
                   
Quarterfinal Round. Day 2, March 9
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7 3 Morgan St. 14-15 vs.   Game 2 winner   6:00 PM ESPN3
8 4 Hampton 14-15 vs.   Game 1 winner   8:00 PM ESPN3
                   
Semifinal Round, March 10
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   6:00 PM ESPN3
10   Game 6 winner   vs.   Game 7 winner   8:00 PM ESPN3
                   
Championship Game, March 11
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
11   Game 9 winner   vs.   Game 10 winner   1:00 PM ESPN2
                   
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (Arch Madness) at St. Louis
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 8 Evansville 15-16 vs. 9 Indiana St. 11-19 83-72  
2 7 Bradley 12-19 vs. 10 Drake 7-23 67-58  
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 1 Illinois St. 25-5 vs. 8 Evansville 16-16 1:00 PM MVC TV
4 4 Southern Illinois 16-15 vs. 5 Loyola (Chi.) 18-13 3:30 PM MVC TV
5 2 Wichita St. 27-4 vs. 7 Bradley 13-19 7:00 PM MVC TV
6 3 Northern Iowa 14-15 vs. 6 Missouri St. 16-15 9:30 PM MVC TV
                   
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 3 winner   vs.   Game 4 winner   3:30 PM CBSSN
8   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   6:00 PM CBSSN
                   
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   2:00 PM CBS
                   
Northeast Conference Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 1 Mount St. Mary’s 16-15 vs. 8 Sacred Heart 13-18 76-73  
2 2 Long Island 20-11 vs. 7 Robert Morris 13-18 68-69  
3 3 Wagner 15-13 vs. 6 Fairleigh-Dickinson 11-18 72-70  
4 4 St. Francis (PA) 14-15 vs. 5 Bryant 12-19 100-78  
                   
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
5 1 Mount St. Mary’s 17-15 vs. 7 Robert Morris 14-18 12 or 2 PM MSG/FCS
6 3 Wagner 16-13 vs. 4 St. Francis (PA) 15-15 12 or 2 PM MSG/FCS
                   
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 5 winner       Game 6 winner   11:00 AM ESPN2
  * This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
                   
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament at Nashville
1st Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 5 Southeast Missouri 14-17 vs. 8 Tennessee St. 17-12 78-75 ot  
2 6 Tennessee Tech 12-19 vs. 7 Murray St. 14-16 84-85 2ot  
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
3 4 Jacksonville St. 17-14 vs. 5 Southeast Missouri 15-17 74-51  
4 3 Morehead St. 14-15 vs. 7 Murray St. 15-16 69-75  
                   
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
5 1 Belmont 22-5 vs. 4 Jacksonville St. 18-14 7:30 PM ESPNU
6 2 UT-Martin 20-11 vs. 7 Murray St. 16-16 10:00 PM ESPNU
                   
Championship Game, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 5 winner       Game 6 winner   8:00 PM ESPN2
                   
Patriot League Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
1 7 Loyola (MD.) 14-15 vs. 10 Lafayette 9-20 67-64  
2 8 Army 12-18 vs. 9 American 8-21 74-58  
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Score  
3 2 Boston U 23-8 vs. 7 Loyola (MD.) 15-15 64-60  
4 3 Lehigh 19-12 vs. 6 Colgate 10-21 77-72  
5 1 Bucknell 23-6 vs. 8 Army 13-18 78-62  
6 4 Navy 18-13 vs. 5 Holy Cross 15-16 49-42  
                   
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7 2 Boston U 24-8 vs. 3 Lehigh 20-12 12 or 2 PM CBSSN
8 1 Bucknell 24-6 vs. 4 Navy 19-13 12 or 2 PM CBSSN
                   
Championship Game, Wednesday, March 8
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   7:30 PM CBSSN
                   
Southern Conference Tournament–Asheville, NC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 8 Western Carolina 9-22 vs. 9 The Citadel 11-20 5:00 PM ESPN3
2 7 Samford 17-14 vs. 10 VMI 6-23 7:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 1 UNC-Greensboro 23-8 vs.   Game 1 winner   12:00 PM ESPN3
4 4 Chattanooga 19-11 vs. 5 Wofford 15-16 2:30 PM ESPN3
5 2 Furman 21-10 vs.   Game 2 winner   6:00 PM ESPN3
6 3 East Tennessee St. 24-7 vs. 6 Mercer 15-16 8:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 3 winner   vs.   Game 4 winner   5:00 PM ESPN3
8   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   7:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   7:00 PM ESPN2
                   
Summit League Tournament–Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 1 South Dakota 21-10   8 Western Illinois 8-19 7:00 PM ESPN3
2 2 North Dakota St. 19-10   7 IUPUI 13-17 9:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 4 South Dakota St. 15-16   5 Denver 16-13 7:00 PM ESPN3
4 3 Omaha 16-13   6 Fort Wayne 19-11 9:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Semifinal Round–Monday, March 6
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
5   Game 1 winner       Game 3 winner   7:00 PM ESPN3
6   Game 2 winner       Game 4 winner   9:30 PM ESPN3
                   
Championship–Tuesday, March 7
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 5 winner       Game 6 winner   9:00 PM ESPN2
                   
West Coast Conference Tournament at Las Vegas
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
1 8 Pepperdine 9-21 vs. 9 Pacific 10-21 BYUtv 9:00 PM
2 7 San Diego 13-17 vs. 10 Portland 10-21 BYUtv 11:00 PM
                   
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
3 3 BYU 21-10 vs. 6 Loyola Marymount 15-14 4:00 PM BYUtv
4 4 Santa Clara 16-15 vs. 5 San Francisco 20-11 6:00 PM BYUtv
5 1 Gonzaga 29-1 vs.   Game 1 winner   10:00 PM ESPN2
6 2 Saint Mary’s 26-3 vs.   Game 2 winner   12:00 AM ESPN2
                   
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
7   Game 3 winner   vs.   Game 4 winner   9 or 11:30 ESPN/ESPN2
8   Game 5 winner   vs.   Game 6 winner   9 or 11:30 ESPN/ESPN2
                   
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm # Seed Team W-L vs. Seed Team W-L Time TV
9   Game 7 winner   vs.   Game 8 winner   9:00 PM ESPN

 

 

February 10, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 11-12, 2017

Games Scheduled for: Saturday, February 11, 2017
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Wake Forest North Carolina St. 12 10 11
Pittsburgh Syracuse -1 -2 2
Duke Clemson 10 12 10
Louisville Miami 14 11 13
Georgia Tech Boston College 9 6 7
Notre Dame Florida St. 1 4 1
West Virginia Kansas St. 12 12 5
Baylor TCU 9 10 13
Texas Tech Kansas -4 -2 -4
Oklahoma St. Texas 15 12 11
Iowa St. Oklahoma 12 12 11
St. John’s Seton Hall 1 -1 -2
Georgetown Marquette 1 2 7
DePaul Creighton -13 -11 -15
Xavier Villanova -1 -2 1
Providence Butler -1 -1 -2
Rutgers Minnesota -5 -3 -7
Illinois Penn St. 4 5 7
Maryland Ohio St. 8 6 6
Michigan St. Iowa 6 8 11
Utah Washington 14 13 15
Arizona St. Stanford 2 2 -3
Arizona California 8 8 7
USC Oregon -4 -5 -7
Florida Texas A&M 16 17 12
Alabama Kentucky -8 -4 -5
Missouri Vanderbilt -4 -3 -7
Tennessee Georgia 7 7 7
Ole Miss Auburn 4 4 7
Mississippi St. South Carolina -5 -3 -5
LSU Arkansas -4 -4 -1
St. Mary’s Gonzaga -8 -1 -1

 

Games Scheduled for: Sunday, February 12, 2017
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Virginia Tech Virginia -6 -7 -9
SMU Cincinnati 5 3 3
Indiana Michigan 4 4 8
Wisconsin Northwestern 8 9 14
UCLA Oregon St. 28 26 20
Colorado Washington St. 13 14 11

PiRate Ratings Top 25

  1. Gonzaga
  2. Villanova
  3. Kansas
  4. Virginia
  5. Wisconsin
  6. Louisville
  7. North Carolina
  8. West Virginia
  9. Baylor
  10. Florida St.
  11. Cincinnati
  12. Florida
  13. Kentucky
  14. St. Mary’s
  15. Duke
  16. Purdue
  17. SMU
  18. UCLA
  19. Wichita St.
  20. Creighton
  21. Arizona
  22. Maryland
  23. Oregon
  24. Butler
  25. Dayton

ACC

  1. Virginia
  2. Louisville
  3. North Carolina
  4. Florida St.
  5. Duke
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Wake Forest
  8. Clemson
  9. Syracuse
  10. Virginia Tech
  11. Miami
  12. Georgia Tech
  13. North Carolina St.
  14. Pittsburgh
  15. Boston College

Big 12

  1. Kansas
  2. West Virginia
  3. Baylor
  4. Oklahoma St.
  5. Iowa St.
  6. Kansas St.
  7. TCU
  8. Texas Tech
  9. Oklahoma
  10. Texas

Big East

  1. Villanova
  2. Creighton
  3. Butler
  4. Dayton
  5. Xavier
  6. Marquette
  7. Seton Hall
  8. Georgetown
  9. Providence
  10. DePaul

Big Ten

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Purdue
  3. Maryland
  4. Northwestern
  5. Minnesota
  6. Michigan
  7. Indiana
  8. Michigan St.
  9. Ohio St.
  10. Iowa
  11. Illinois
  12. Penn St.
  13. Nebraska
  14. Rutgers

Pac-12

  1. UCLA
  2. Arizona
  3. Oregon
  4. USC
  5. Utah
  6. California
  7. Colorado
  8. Stanford
  9. Arizona St.
  10. Washington
  11. Washington St.
  12. Oregon St.

SEC

  1. Florida
  2. Kentucky
  3. South Carolina
  4. Tennessee
  5. Georgia
  6. Arkansas
  7. Vanderbilt
  8. Auburn
  9. Alabama
  10. Ole Miss
  11. Texas A&M
  12. Mississippi St.
  13. LSU
  14. Missouri

A Great Weekend For Watching Hoops on TV

The Following Games are listed in order of the most exciting and important and not in order of tip-off time

All times given are Eastern Standard

SATURDAY

St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga  8:15 PM on ESPN

Xavier vs. Villanova  2:30 PM on Fox

Notre Dame vs. Florida St. 6:00 PM on ESPN

USC vs. Oregon  10:30 PM on Pac-12 Network

Alabama vs. Kentucky  1:00 PM on CBS

Texas Tech vs. Kansas  2:00 PM on ESPN

Princeton vs. Columbia  6:00 PM  For those that have purchased Ivy League Live Sports Access: http://www.ivyleaguedigitalnetwork.com/princeton/game/columbia-at-princeton-on-02112017

 

SUNDAY

SMU vs. Cincinnati  4:00 PM on ESPN

Virginia Tech vs. Virginia  6:30 PM on ESPNU

Indiana vs. Michigan  1:00 PM on CBS

Wisconsin vs. Northwestern  6:30 PM on Big Ten Network

 

October 31, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 1-5, 2016

The College Football Playoff Committee doles out its first playoff ranking tomorrow, and it looks like their job became easy enough that they can come in late to the office. With losses to Baylor, West Virginia, and Nebraska, and wins by Clemson and Washington, four undefeated Power 5 Conference teams remain. Obviously, the first ranking will include Alabama, Michigan, Clemson, and Washington as its first quartet. There is some talk that Texas A&M should be in the mix, but including a one-loss SEC team over an unbeaten Washington, Michigan, or Clemson, would draw enough ire from the non-SEC football world that the committee would be barbecued in the media.

In the end, there is only one way to hold a proper playoff. The playoffs should be decided the same way they are decided in every sport that has a playoff–on the field. No committee should be needed to figure out which teams to invite. Politics should have no bearing on the process. It is obvious that if it comes down to it, a one-loss team like Ohio State, Alabama, or Clemson will always trump a one-loss team like Washington, Baylor, or Louisville.

The champions of the Power 5 conferences should receive automatic bids to an 8-team playoff. Or, the winners of the conference championship games should receive automatic bids. That would mean, until the Big 12 expanded to at least 12 teams and implemented a championship game, their conference would not receive an automatic bid. Also, no independent team could be eligible for the playoffs, so Notre Dame, BYU, Army, and U Mass would have to find a league or else never be eligible for a playoff spot.

As for the other three spots in the playoffs, take the Group of 5 and award the top conference champion overall, the sixth playoff spot. That would be Western Michigan as of now.  Of the remaining four conference champions, give them spots 7 through 10 and have them play a preliminary “play-in” round to earn the 7th and 8th spots in the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at this in action. First, the Big 12 would have to expand by at least two teams to retain their automatic bid status. For the sake of argument, let’s add Notre Dame and BYU as the 11th and 12th teams. Army and U Mass could go to Conference USA.

Imagine for a moment that these moves have occurred. Now, using what has happened so far this year, let’s say that Clemson wins the ACC, Alabama wins the SEC, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Oklahoma wins the Big 12, and Washington wins the Pac-12. Western Michigan goes 13-0 to win the MAC and become the best Group of 5 team. The remaining four Group of 5 Champions are South Florida in the AAC, Western Kentucky in CUSA, Troy in the Sun Belt, and San Diego State in the Mountain West.

In the preliminary round, #7 seed South Florida would host #10 seed Troy, while #8 seed San Diego State would host #9 seed Western Kentucky. Western Michigan would be the #6 seed; Oklahoma #5, Washington #4, Clemson #3, Michigan #2, and Alabama #1.

After the preliminary round, #1 Alabama would host the winner of the SDSU-WKU game; #2 Michigan would host the winner of the South Florida-Troy game; #3 Clemson would host #6 Western Michigan; and #4 Washington would host #5 Oklahoma.

The debate would revolve around teams like Troy and Western Kentucky getting spots in playoffs, even if they were just preliminary rounds. But, this is the same thing that happens in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the champion of the #31 conference tournament gets an automatic bid, while a top ten team that does not win their league’s conference tournament does not receive an automatic bid.

In the end, the NCAA will never implement such a plan, because fairness is not part of their plan. A fair profit is all that matters, so for now, the big powers will get the benefit of the doubt for financial reasons only.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.9 129.1 135.8 133.6
2 Michigan 128.7 126.4 128.7 127.9
3 Washington 128.8 121.6 128.6 126.3
4 Louisville 127.2 122.5 127.1 125.6
5 Clemson 126.7 119.5 125.6 123.9
6 LSU 124.8 119.8 124.4 123.0
7 Auburn 123.7 121.2 123.9 122.9
8 Ohio St. 121.9 121.5 122.2 121.9
9 Oklahoma 120.9 119.4 120.6 120.3
10 Virginia Tech 119.1 117.7 119.5 118.8
11 Texas A&M 117.5 115.5 117.3 116.8
12 Florida St. 119.2 112.7 118.3 116.7
13 North Carolina 118.4 112.0 118.3 116.2
14 Colorado 117.5 113.0 117.3 116.0
15 Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.2 115.0 115.5
16 USC 117.7 112.9 115.5 115.4
17 Wisconsin 115.4 113.4 116.1 115.0
18 Florida 114.7 116.6 113.2 114.8
19 Tennessee 115.5 112.7 114.7 114.3
20 Baylor 113.8 114.3 114.2 114.1
21 Pittsburgh 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
22 Miami 115.7 110.0 115.0 113.6
23 Western Michigan 112.9 111.8 114.6 113.1
24 Stanford 114.6 108.6 114.0 112.4
25 Penn St. 112.0 113.2 111.4 112.2
26 Nebraska 113.2 110.2 113.1 112.2
27 Ole Miss 114.3 109.2 113.0 112.2
28 Washington St. 112.4 109.5 112.2 111.4
29 West Virginia 111.8 110.8 111.3 111.3
30 Iowa 112.1 109.5 111.9 111.2
31 Notre Dame 112.7 108.8 111.3 110.9
32 Texas 110.3 111.4 109.7 110.5
33 UCLA 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5
34 Houston 109.3 108.2 110.7 109.4
35 Utah 111.7 106.2 110.1 109.3
36 Northwestern 110.4 106.4 109.4 108.7
37 South Florida 108.8 107.0 109.3 108.4
38 Arkansas 109.9 105.2 108.0 107.7
39 BYU 109.6 104.1 109.2 107.6
40 Georgia Tech 109.2 105.3 108.1 107.5
41 Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
42 Kansas St. 106.6 108.9 106.5 107.3
43 Mississippi St. 107.8 106.3 106.7 106.9
44 TCU 106.5 108.0 105.6 106.7
45 Boise St. 105.7 106.9 106.7 106.4
46 Oregon 107.1 105.3 106.3 106.2
47 San Diego St. 105.6 104.2 107.6 105.8
48 Minnesota 105.8 104.7 105.3 105.3
49 Western Kentucky 105.5 102.9 106.8 105.1
50 Temple 104.6 103.9 105.0 104.5
51 Tulsa 103.4 104.8 104.1 104.1
52 North Carolina St. 104.9 102.3 104.5 103.9
53 Texas Tech 104.6 103.8 103.1 103.9
54 Michigan St. 104.5 103.9 102.8 103.7
55 Indiana 102.9 104.8 102.5 103.4
56 Virginia 104.3 101.5 103.8 103.2
57 Arizona St. 103.9 102.8 102.5 103.1
58 Maryland 102.3 104.7 100.8 102.6
59 Syracuse 104.0 100.8 102.6 102.5
60 Navy 102.6 101.7 102.4 102.3
61 Toledo 101.5 101.8 102.0 101.8
62 California 104.6 97.8 102.2 101.5
63 Duke 101.7 101.6 101.0 101.4
64 Wake Forest 101.6 100.4 102.0 101.4
65 Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
66 Appalachian St. 100.4 100.7 102.4 101.2
67 Vanderbilt 101.6 98.4 100.3 100.1
68 Memphis 100.7 98.8 99.6 99.7
69 South Carolina 99.7 99.3 99.3 99.5
70 Boston College 99.9 98.8 99.4 99.4
71 Arizona 99.6 97.4 98.1 98.4
72 Iowa St. 98.6 98.2 97.9 98.2
73 Louisiana Tech 96.9 98.8 98.6 98.1
74 Missouri 97.9 97.6 97.2 97.6
75 Central Florida 95.9 97.3 96.6 96.6
76 Cincinnati 96.4 96.8 96.4 96.6
77 Middle Tennessee 95.8 96.7 96.3 96.3
78 Army 92.8 99.8 94.9 95.8
79 New Mexico 94.8 96.9 95.7 95.8
80 Central Michigan 95.0 96.9 95.4 95.8
81 Air Force 94.8 96.2 94.8 95.3
82 Troy 93.0 97.7 95.0 95.3
83 Northern Illinois 94.1 95.5 95.4 95.0
84 SMU 94.4 93.9 96.5 95.0
85 Oregon St. 96.7 92.2 95.3 94.7
86 East Carolina 94.0 95.5 94.3 94.6
87 Illinois 95.0 91.6 94.0 93.6
88 Ohio 91.3 97.1 92.0 93.5
89 Wyoming 92.2 92.3 93.2 92.6
90 Connecticut 92.4 91.3 92.0 91.9
91 Southern Mississippi 91.6 91.9 92.0 91.9
92 Arkansas St. 90.6 92.6 92.3 91.8
93 Utah St. 91.0 93.6 90.8 91.8
94 Colorado St. 90.0 91.8 90.9 90.9
95 Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
96 Rutgers 92.0 89.6 90.6 90.8
97 Georgia Southern 88.2 88.6 90.0 89.0
98 Kent St. 87.2 89.0 87.9 88.1
99 Miami (O) 86.8 87.7 88.2 87.6
100 Old Dominion 86.2 89.7 86.7 87.5
101 Ball St. 85.4 87.9 86.5 86.6
102 Akron 84.2 89.9 85.6 86.6
103 Tulane 84.9 88.9 85.6 86.5
104 Nevada 85.3 87.7 85.9 86.3
105 UNLV 85.1 88.2 85.2 86.2
106 South Alabama 83.5 90.1 84.8 86.1
107 Eastern Michigan 85.1 87.4 85.4 86.0
108 Hawaii 85.9 84.9 85.7 85.5
109 Georgia St. 82.7 87.4 84.6 84.9
110 UTSA 81.7 88.4 84.1 84.8
111 Marshall 82.8 86.4 83.7 84.3
112 Kansas 82.9 88.1 80.3 83.8
113 North Texas 81.7 84.8 82.5 83.0
114 Massachusetts 80.3 86.6 81.4 82.8
115 Bowling Green 82.4 82.8 82.4 82.5
116 San Jose St. 82.7 82.7 82.2 82.5
117 Idaho 79.5 84.8 81.1 81.8
118 Fresno St. 80.0 83.5 79.7 81.1
119 Florida International 79.1 83.7 79.3 80.7
120 UL-Lafayette 77.7 83.8 79.5 80.4
121 Rice 77.6 84.3 77.6 79.8
122 Buffalo 76.3 83.2 76.9 78.8
123 Florida Atlantic 74.1 78.8 77.0 76.6
124 Charlotte 73.7 79.0 74.4 75.7
125 UTEP 72.2 76.7 73.4 74.1
126 New Mexico St. 71.6 74.7 72.5 72.9
127 Texas St. 67.5 69.7 68.3 68.5
128 UL-Monroe 64.9 69.8 65.2 66.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Michigan
3 Clemson
4 Louisville
5 Washington
6 Texas A&M
7 Ohio St.
8 Wisconsin
9 Western Michigan
10 Auburn
11 Nebraska
12 Florida
13 Oklahoma
14 Colorado
15 LSU
16 Washington St.
17 Penn St.
18 Virginia Tech
19 West Virginia
20 Florida St.
21 Boise St.
22 USC
23 North Carolina
24 Tennessee
25 Utah
26 Baylor
27 Houston
28 Stanford
29 South Florida
30 Oklahoma St.
31 Arkansas
32 Pittsburgh
33 Appalachian St.
34 San Diego St.
35 Tulsa
36 Troy
37 Minnesota
38 Iowa
39 Northwestern
40 BYU
41 Ole Miss
42 Temple
43 Georgia Tech
44 Kansas St.
45 Western Kentucky
46 Miami (Fla)
47 Navy
48 Kentucky
49 Wyoming
50 Toledo
51 Arizona St.
52 California
53 Texas Tech
54 UCLA
55 Oregon
56 Texas
57 Georgia
58 Maryland
59 Louisiana Tech
60 North Carolina St.
61 Indiana
62 Memphis
63 Middle Tennessee
64 Wake Forest
65 TCU
66 South Carolina
67 Central Florida
68 Vanderbilt
69 Syracuse
70 Air Force
71 Colorado St.
72 Mississippi St.
73 Southern Miss.
74 Notre Dame
75 New Mexico
76 SMU
77 Boston College
78 Ohio
79 Army
80 Oregon St.
81 Duke
82 Old Dominion
83 Central Michigan
84 Michigan St.
85 Akron
86 Georgia Southern
87 Cincinnati
88 Arizona
89 Eastern Michigan
90 East Carolina
91 Missouri
92 Idaho
93 Virginia
94 Arkansas St.
95 South Alabama
96 Utah St.
97 Illinois
98 North Texas
99 Hawaii
100 Rutgers
101 Northern Illinois
102 UTSA
103 Ball St.
104 Tulane
105 Connecticut
106 Kent St.
107 Purdue
108 Iowa St.
109 UL-Lafayette
110 Miami (O)
111 Georgia St.
112 UNLV
113 Nevada
114 San Jose St.
115 New Mexico St.
116 Marshall
117 Bowling Green
118 Charlotte
119 Massachusetts
120 UL-Monroe
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Kansas
123 Texas St.
124 Buffalo
125 UTEP
126 Rice
127 Fresno St.
128 Florida Atlantic

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 108.8 107.0 109.3 108.4
Temple 104.6 103.9 105.0 104.5
Central Florida 95.9 97.3 96.6 96.6
Cincinnati 96.4 96.8 96.4 96.6
East Carolina 94.0 95.5 94.3 94.6
Connecticut 92.4 91.3 92.0 91.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 109.3 108.2 110.7 109.4
Tulsa 103.4 104.8 104.1 104.1
Navy 102.6 101.7 102.4 102.3
Memphis 100.7 98.8 99.6 99.7
SMU 94.4 93.9 96.5 95.0
Tulane 84.9 88.9 85.6 86.5
         
AAC Averages 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.1
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.2 122.5 127.1 125.6
Clemson 126.7 119.5 125.6 123.9
Florida St. 119.2 112.7 118.3 116.7
North Carolina St. 104.9 102.3 104.5 103.9
Syracuse 104.0 100.8 102.6 102.5
Wake Forest 101.6 100.4 102.0 101.4
Boston College 99.9 98.8 99.4 99.4
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 119.1 117.7 119.5 118.8
North Carolina 118.4 112.0 118.3 116.2
Pittsburgh 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
Miami 115.7 110.0 115.0 113.6
Georgia Tech 109.2 105.3 108.1 107.5
Virginia 104.3 101.5 103.8 103.2
Duke 101.7 101.6 101.0 101.4
         
ACC Averages 111.9 108.4 111.4 110.6
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.9 119.4 120.6 120.3
Oklahoma St. 115.2 116.2 115.0 115.5
Baylor 113.8 114.3 114.2 114.1
West Virginia 111.8 110.8 111.3 111.3
Texas 110.3 111.4 109.7 110.5
Kansas St. 106.6 108.9 106.5 107.3
TCU 106.5 108.0 105.6 106.7
Texas Tech 104.6 103.8 103.1 103.9
Iowa St. 98.6 98.2 97.9 98.2
Kansas 82.9 88.1 80.3 83.8
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.2
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Michigan 128.7 126.4 128.7 127.9
Ohio St. 121.9 121.5 122.2 121.9
Penn St. 112.0 113.2 111.4 112.2
Michigan St. 104.5 103.9 102.8 103.7
Indiana 102.9 104.8 102.5 103.4
Maryland 102.3 104.7 100.8 102.6
Rutgers 92.0 89.6 90.6 90.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 115.4 113.4 116.1 115.0
Nebraska 113.2 110.2 113.1 112.2
Iowa 112.1 109.5 111.9 111.2
Northwestern 110.4 106.4 109.4 108.7
Minnesota 105.8 104.7 105.3 105.3
Illinois 95.0 91.6 94.0 93.6
Purdue 91.8 90.2 90.5 90.8
         
Big Ten Averages 107.7 106.5 107.1 107.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 105.5 102.9 106.8 105.1
Middle Tennessee 95.8 96.7 96.3 96.3
Old Dominion 86.2 89.7 86.7 87.5
Marshall 82.8 86.4 83.7 84.3
Florida International 79.1 83.7 79.3 80.7
Florida Atlantic 74.1 78.8 77.0 76.6
Charlotte 73.7 79.0 74.4 75.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.9 98.8 98.6 98.1
Southern Mississippi 91.6 91.9 92.0 91.9
UTSA 81.7 88.4 84.1 84.8
North Texas 81.7 84.8 82.5 83.0
Rice 77.6 84.3 77.6 79.8
UTEP 72.2 76.7 73.4 74.1
         
CUSA Averages 84.5 87.9 85.6 86.0
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.7 108.8 111.3 110.9
BYU 109.6 104.1 109.2 107.6
Army 92.8 99.8 94.9 95.8
Massachusetts 80.3 86.6 81.4 82.8
         
Indep. Averages 98.9 99.8 99.2 99.3
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.3 97.1 92.0 93.5
Kent St. 87.2 89.0 87.9 88.1
Miami (O) 86.8 87.7 88.2 87.6
Akron 84.2 89.9 85.6 86.6
Bowling Green 82.4 82.8 82.4 82.5
Buffalo 76.3 83.2 76.9 78.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 112.9 111.8 114.6 113.1
Toledo 101.5 101.8 102.0 101.8
Central Michigan 95.0 96.9 95.4 95.8
Northern Illinois 94.1 95.5 95.4 95.0
Ball St. 85.4 87.9 86.5 86.6
Eastern Michigan 85.1 87.4 85.4 86.0
         
MAC Averages 90.2 92.6 91.0 91.3
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 105.7 106.9 106.7 106.4
New Mexico 94.8 96.9 95.7 95.8
Air Force 94.8 96.2 94.8 95.3
Wyoming 92.2 92.3 93.2 92.6
Utah St. 91.0 93.6 90.8 91.8
Colorado St. 90.0 91.8 90.9 90.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 105.6 104.2 107.6 105.8
Nevada 85.3 87.7 85.9 86.3
UNLV 85.1 88.2 85.2 86.2
Hawaii 85.9 84.9 85.7 85.5
San Jose St. 82.7 82.7 82.2 82.5
Fresno St. 80.0 83.5 79.7 81.1
         
MWC Averages 91.1 92.5 91.5 91.7
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 128.8 121.6 128.6 126.3
Stanford 114.6 108.6 114.0 112.4
Washington St. 112.4 109.5 112.2 111.4
Oregon 107.1 105.3 106.3 106.2
California 104.6 97.8 102.2 101.5
Oregon St. 96.7 92.2 95.3 94.7
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colorado 117.5 113.0 117.3 116.0
USC 117.7 112.9 115.5 115.4
UCLA 110.2 108.7 109.5 109.5
Utah 111.7 106.2 110.1 109.3
Arizona St. 103.9 102.8 102.5 103.1
Arizona 99.6 97.4 98.1 98.4
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida 114.7 116.6 113.2 114.8
Tennessee 115.5 112.7 114.7 114.3
Georgia 107.8 107.4 106.9 107.4
Kentucky 101.1 102.0 100.5 101.2
Vanderbilt 101.6 98.4 100.3 100.1
South Carolina 99.7 99.3 99.3 99.5
Missouri 97.9 97.6 97.2 97.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 135.9 129.1 135.8 133.6
LSU 124.8 119.8 124.4 123.0
Auburn 123.7 121.2 123.9 122.9
Texas A&M 117.5 115.5 117.3 116.8
Ole Miss 114.3 109.2 113.0 112.2
Arkansas 109.9 105.2 108.0 107.7
Mississippi St. 107.8 106.3 106.7 106.9
         
SEC Averages 112.3 110.0 111.5 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 100.4 100.7 102.4 101.2
Troy 93.0 97.7 95.0 95.3
Arkansas St. 90.6 92.6 92.3 91.8
Georgia Southern 88.2 88.6 90.0 89.0
South Alabama 83.5 90.1 84.8 86.1
Georgia St. 82.7 87.4 84.6 84.9
Idaho 79.5 84.8 81.1 81.8
UL-Lafayette 77.7 83.8 79.5 80.4
New Mexico St. 71.6 74.7 72.5 72.9
Texas St. 67.5 69.7 68.3 68.5
UL-Monroe 64.9 69.8 65.2 66.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.8 85.5 83.2 83.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.3 110.0 111.5 111.3
2 ACC 111.9 108.4 111.4 110.6
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big 12 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.2
5 Big Ten 107.7 106.5 107.1 107.1
6 Independents 98.9 99.8 99.2 99.3
7 AAC 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.1
8 MWC 91.1 92.5 91.5 91.7
9 MAC 90.2 92.6 91.0 91.3
10 CUSA 84.5 87.9 85.6 86.0
11 Sun Belt 81.8 85.5 83.2 83.5

 

 

This Week’s Games–November 1-5
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 1
Northern Illinois Bowling Green 14.7 15.7 16.4
Ball St. Western Michigan -24.5 -20.9 -25.1
         
Wednesday, November 2
Akron Toledo -15.3 -9.9 -14.4
         
Thursday, November 3
Ohio U Buffalo 18.0 16.9 18.1
Iowa St. Oklahoma -19.3 -18.2 -19.7
Georgia St. Arkansas St. -5.4 -2.7 -5.2
Colorado UCLA 10.3 7.3 10.8
         
Friday, November 4
Miami (O) Central Michigan -5.2 -6.2 -4.2
Connecticut Temple -9.2 -9.6 -10.0
Boise St. San Jose St. 26.0 27.2 27.5
         
Saturday, November 5
Boston College Louisville -24.3 -20.7 -24.7
Clemson Syracuse 25.7 21.7 26.0
Duke Virginia Tech -14.4 -13.1 -15.5
North Carolina St. Florida St. -11.3 -7.4 -10.8
North Carolina Georgia Tech 12.2 9.7 10.2
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 3.6 1.6 3.7
Washington St. Arizona 15.8 15.1 17.1
USC Oregon 13.6 10.6 12.2
California Washington -21.2 -20.8 -23.4
West Virginia Kansas 31.9 25.7 34.0
Kansas St. Oklahoma St. -5.6 -4.3 -5.5
Notre Dame (N) Navy 10.1 7.1 8.9
Army Air Force 1.0 6.6 3.1
Ole Miss Georgia Southern 29.1 23.6 26.0
Mississippi St. Texas A&M -6.7 -6.2 -7.6
Auburn Vanderbilt 25.1 25.8 26.6
Texas Tech Texas -3.2 -5.1 -4.1
Rutgers Indiana -8.4 -12.7 -9.4
Illinois Michigan St. -6.5 -9.3 -5.8
Northwestern Wisconsin -3.0 -5.0 -4.7
Middle Tennessee UTSA 17.1 11.3 15.2
Wake Forest Virginia -0.2 1.4 0.7
Rice Florida Atlantic 6.0 8.0 3.1
Colorado St. Fresno St. 13.0 11.3 14.2
Southern Miss. Charlotte 20.9 15.9 20.6
Baylor TCU 9.8 8.8 11.1
Stanford Oregon St. 20.9 19.4 21.7
Cincinnati BYU -10.2 -4.3 -9.8
Troy Massachusetts 15.7 14.1 16.6
Arkansas Florida -1.8 -8.4 -2.2
Michigan Maryland 29.4 28.7 30.9
Minnesota Purdue 17.0 17.5 17.8
Appalachian St. Texas St. 35.9 34.0 37.1
SMU Memphis -3.8 -2.4 -0.6
South Carolina Missouri 5.0 4.7 5.1
UL-Lafayette Idaho 0.8 2.0 1.4
UL-Monroe South Alabama -13.6 -18.3 -17.6
Central Florida Tulane 14.0 14.4 14.0
Western Kentucky Florida Int’l. 29.4 22.2 30.5
North Texas Louisiana Tech -12.2 -11.0 -13.1
Old Dominion Marshall 5.9 6.2 5.5
San Diego St. Hawaii 23.7 23.3 25.9
Penn St. Iowa 2.9 6.7 2.5
Kentucky Georgia -4 -2.4 -3.4
LSU Alabama -8 -6.3 -8.4
Tulsa East Carolina 12.4 12.3 12.8
Ohio St. Nebraska 11.7 14.3 12.1
New Mexico Nevada 12.5 12.2 12.8
Wyoming Utah St. 4.2 1.7 5.4

(N)–Game to be played in Jacksonville, FL

FBS vs. FCS Week 10  
Home Visitor PiRate
Tennessee Tennessee Tech 41
UTEP Houston Baptist 16

 

Bowl Projections

The bowl outlook took a major turn this past weekend with numerous upsets bringing multiple teams into the bowl discussions.  Let’s take a look at how each conference was affected.

Group of 5 Leagues

American Athletic Conference

South Florida recovered from its loss to Temple by beating Navy at its own game.  This now opens the door in the West for Tulsa, which beat Memphis to move into position to take the West if they win out.  Because the AAC does not slot bowl teams into specific bowls, it did not change much.  Houston with two losses is out of the NY6 Bowl picture for now.  The AAC has eight bowl tie-ins but appears headed to having just seven bowl eligible teams.  However, SMU is getting better and better every week, so the Mustangs could sneak in as the eighth eligible team.  For now, we are predicting that Cincinnati will not be bowl eligible.

Conference USA

Western Kentucky should win the East with Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion earning bowl bids from this division.  The West is up for grabs, but Louisiana Tech is starting to look like the team that will emerge as the division winner.  Southern Miss. and North Texas are still alive, and UTSA is a dark horse.  We see six bowl eligible teams emerging, which is perfect, since the league has six bowl tie-ins.

Independents

BYU is going to be bowl eligible and get the Poinsettia bid allotted to the Cougars.  With Army’s upset of Wake Forest, the Black Knights should get to seven wins and become bowl eligible.  Notre Dame still looks like a team on the outside.  The Fighting Irish might need to beat USC in the season finale to get to 6-6, and for now, we do not believe they can beat the Trojans.

Mid-American Conference

Western Michigan is now in the driver’s seat for the NY6 Bowl thanks to Wyoming’s win over Boise State.  The Broncos have a rather easy November schedule and figure to play a 7-5 or even 6-6 team in the MAC title game.

The East has become quite interesting.  While Ohio has the upper hand in the race, keep an eye on Miami of Ohio.  Miami has not figured in the race in years, but the Redhawks won at Eastern Michigan Saturday to move to 3-2 in the league.  If Miami wins out, and Ohio loses to Toledo and either Central Michigan or Akron, then Miami could be the division winner with a 6-6 overall mark.

The MAC will have at least seven bowl eligible teams, and they only have five bowl tie-ins.  Because WMU for now is slotted for the Cotton Bowl, there will be one surplus team to become an at-large invitee to another bowl.

Mountain West Conference

Boise State’s loss not only knocks them well back in the NY6 Bowl pecking order, the Broncos now need Wyoming to lose twice in order to get a trip to the MWC Championship Game.  It has been awhile since the Broncos have played at home in the bowl season, but we believe they will garner another bowl even if they do not win the league.

San Diego State is all but assured to win the West Division, and the Aztecs could be the only division team to gain bowl eligibility.  Hawaii’s loss at home to New Mexico means the Rainbow Warriors are probably looking at 6-7 at best.  At 6-7, UH would have preference over the 5-7 teams trying to gain alternate status to bowls.

Sun Belt

With 11 teams and just four bowl tie-ins, the SBC usually produces an extra bowl eligible team or two.  We believe two league teams will receive at-large bids this year.  Troy and Appalachian State are already bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern in good shape.  South Alabama and either Idaho or Louisiana-Lafayette should give the league a couple of at-large candidates.

Power 5 Leagues

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville in the Atlantic and North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh in the Coastal are assured of bowls, but after that, it is a jumbled race.  For now, we believe Miami, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech will become bowl eligible, but North Carolina State, Boston College, Syracuse, and Duke will not.  We also believe Duke may fall to 4-8, taking the Blue Devils out of the 5-7 bowl sweepstakes, where they hold the APR Ace card.  Boston College has a fat APR score and could get in at 5-7.  Overall, we see nine bowl teams from this league.  Because Clemson should get a playoff spot and Louisville is safe as a NY6 Bowl team, and because there is a chance that either North Carolina or Virginia Tech could sneak into the Cotton Bowl picture, this league will not supply all its contracted bowls with teams.

Big 12 Conference

With the two undefeated teams losing this past weekend, it is almost impossible now for a team from this league to make the Playoffs.  It is the price the Big 12 pays for not expanding (and as some believe because Texas says no expansion).  As of today, we have the league champion going to the Sugar Bowl, and no other team should earn an NY6 bid.  With Texas and Texas Tech winning, this now makes a strong case for seven bowl eligible teams (TCU dropping out for now) for seven bowls.

Big Ten Conference

Can Michigan win at the Giant Horseshoe?  We believe the Wolverines are now considerably better than Ohio State, and we cannot see a West Division team staying within two touchdowns of the Maize and Blue.  Jim Harbaugh has his alma mater looking much like it did back in the Bo Schembechler 1970’s.

Should Michigan hand Ohio State that season-ending loss, and should Penn State win out, the Nittany Lions could be the Rose Bowl’s choice over a multiple loss West Division champion.

We are looking at 10 bowl eligible teams in this league, but we also believe three teams will be in the NY6, meaning the league will come up one team short for its bowl obligations.

Pac-12 Conference

With Washington’s win at Utah, we now show the Huskies going to the Palouse and beating rival Washington State in the season finale.  In the South, Colorado controls its own destiny with a favorable schedule, but they will have to beat Utah in Boulder on the final weekend.

We show UCLA, Cal, and Oregon falling short, while Arizona State recovers to gain bowl eligibility.  This leads to seven bowl eligible teams for eight spots (one playoff and seven bowls), so the Cactus Bowl would have to find another team.

Southeastern Conference

In what was an interesting turn of events this past weekend in the East Division, South Carolina upset Tennessee and Kentucky won at Missouri.  Florida now controls its own destiny in the division, but if the Gators lose to Arkansas and LSU on the road, and Kentucky beats fading Georgia and Tennessee teams, the Wildcats would be the major shocking surprise winner in the division!

Alabama plays at LSU this weekend, and we just cannot see the Tigers winning this game.  The Tide get Auburn at home, so it looks like a march to the top seed for the Saban Dynasty.

We have added South Carolina to the Bowl list this week, and with Kentucky now 99% assured of gaining bowl eligibility, that brings the SEC to 11 bowl eligible teams, which means they will supply a team for every bowl tie-in.

The 7-loss Alternate Teams

This week, we have 78 teams gaining bowl eligibility.  We have Hawaii at 6-7, so the Rainbow Warriors would be team #79.  The 80th team would thus go to the highest APR score of the 5-7 teams.  Duke would be that team if the Blue Devils can win two more times, but their schedule is set up for a hard crash, and thus we do not believe they will win five games.

Next up among the possible 5-7 teams is Vanderbilt.  If the Commodores win one of their final four games (Missouri is still to be played), it looks like they will be the 80th team in the field.  It might mean a 1,500+ mile trip out West.

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. North Texas
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC Arizona St. vs. San Diego St.
Cure AAC SBC Temple vs. Appy St.
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) vs. S. Alabama
New Orleans CUSA SBC La. Tech vs. Troy
Miami Beach AAC MAC Central Fla. vs. Central Mich.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston vs. Western Ky.
Poinsettia MWC BYU Colorado St. vs. BYU
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Mich. vs. Wyoming
Bahamas AAC/CUSA MAC/CUSA South Florida vs. Toledo
Armed Forces Navy Big 12 Navy vs. Texas Tech
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U vs. Arkansas St.
Hawaii CUSA MWC Middle Tenn. vs. Boise St.
St. Petersburg AAC ACC/ND Memphis vs. Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane ACC/ND Big Ten [Akron] vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC/ND Ole Miss vs. [Idaho]
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA {Hawaii} vs. Sou. Miss.
Military ACC/ND AAC [Army] vs. Tulsa
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. Utah
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. {Vanderbilt}
Pinstripe ACC/ND Big Ten Pittsburgh vs. Maryland
Russell Athletic ACC/ND Big 12 Va. Tech vs. Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Wash. St.
Texas Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Tennessee
Birmingham AAC SEC [Ga. Sou.] vs. S. Carolina
Belk ACC/ND SEC Wake Forest vs. Florida
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor vs. USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas vs. Arkansas
Sun ACC/ND Pac-12 Georgia Tech vs. Stanford
Arizona CUSA/SBC MWC/SBC Old Dominion vs. Air Force
Music City ACC/ND/B10 SEC Northwestern vs. Georgia
Orange ACC/ND B10/SEC Louisville vs. Nebraska
Citrus ACC/ND/B10 SEC Wisconsin vs. Auburn
TaxSlayer ACC/ND/B10 SEC Florida St. vs. Kentucky
Peach Semifinal Semifinal Alabama vs. Washington
Fiesta Semifinal Semifinal Michigan vs. Clemson
Outback Big Ten SEC Ohio St. vs. LSU
Cotton At-Large At-Large N. Carolina vs. Western Mich.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. vs. Colorado
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Michigan
           
[Team] At-Large Selection
{Team} At-Large Selection of projected 7-Loss Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 19, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For September 22-24, 2016

What an incredible college football week has just passed!  We told you last week that it could be the best September slate of college football games in years, and it lived up to the hype.

Guess what?  This weekend won’t exactly be chopped liver.  There are some excellent games on tap, and more conference games will be played this week.

First, some information about you guys and dolls.  We asked you to go to our sister site at http://www.piratings.webs.com and tell us who your favorite college and NFL teams happened to be.  We have received dozens of replies so far, and a pattern has developed.

Among the colleges mentioned, a large majority of you are Big Ten fans.  The number one school mentioned so far, and by quite a large margin, is Ohio State.  Number two surprised us, as we expected that an SEC school or six would be among the top ones you fine folks follow.  No SEC team received more than three votes, and that three belongs to Florida.  Number two behind the Buckeyes was their arch-rival Michigan, and in distant third place was the other Big Ten East biggie, Michigan State.

The NFL followed suit with upper Midwest fan support.  In a close race so far, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Chicago rank one-two-three.

It could be that the PiRate Ratings have a lot of upper Midwest support.  There are ties to Ohio State in a minor way, much less than the ties to Wisconsin, but it is there.  However, we expected a lot more SEC support, and it just didn’t come.  Wherefore art thou Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, and Aggie fans?

Okay, now to get down to business.  We will obviously comment on the 3 Big Ten schools first today, and then include other games of interest that you might want to follow this week.

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes get a well-timed week off after picking up the biggest win of the NCAA season against the Sooners in Norman.  Their next two games are home contests against Rutgers and Indiana, so Urban Meyer’s team will be 5-0 when they head up to Camp Randall Stadium on October 15.

The stats are intimidating to any future opponent: 56.7 points per game to 12.3 points allowed per game; 306 yards per game rushing to just 103 allowed per game; a total yards per game average of 545 to 279; the defense has intercepted nine passes in three games; and if that isn’t enough riches, the Buckeyes have the best kicking game in the nation so far with a 50+ yard punt average and a 47+ yard net punt average to go with perfect 100% accuracy on PATs and field goals.

Michigan

The Wolverines spotted improved Colorado a quick two touchdown lead before getting down to business and posting an impressive 17-point win at the Big House.  Penn State comes to Ann Arbor this week, after the Nittany Lions held off a pesky Temple team.  The Maize and Blue defense and special teams have scored or set up more points than they have allowed with interception returns, punt returns, and three blocked kicks so far.  At one time, in 1969, Penn State’s defense and special teams scored or set up more points than the defense allowed for the entire season.  That Penn State team finished undefeated, and if this Michigan team can continue to replicate that great 1969 Penn State team, there is no reason to think the Wolverines cannot run the table–at least head to the Giant Horseshoe at 11-0.  How much would another 11-0 vs. 11-0 matchup cost to purchase a ticket on the street this time?  Prices were highly inflated in 2006, when these two teams were undefeated and ranked 1-2.

As for this week, We don’t think James Franklin’s Nittany Lions will roar much.  They might hold Michigan under 40 points, but can they score more than 17?

 

Michigan St.

The Spartans looked like a different team between game one against Furman and game two against Notre Dame.  Now MSU hosts a Wisconsin team that must have overlooked Georgia State last week, but even overlooking the Panthers, UW should have won by 30.  Sparty’s defense held Notre Dame’s rushing game at bay all night, and a repeat performance against the Badgers will mean a double-digit win.  For the record, we do not believe they will stop the UW rush like they stopped the Notre Dame running game.

Tyler O’Connor looked like a pro prospect at times against the Irish secondary.  His one interception came on a deflection, and if you remove that deflection, he had a night Connor Cook would have been proud of.  Look for MSU to win another tight game by less than a touchdown.  The last three times these schools have played, the margins were all under a TD.

Other Games of Interest

Thursday Night:

Clemson at Georgia Tech

The CU win at Auburn does not look all that impressive after Texas A&M looked better in their win at Jordan-Hare.  The narrow win over Troy could not be erased by the slaughter over the FCS school that was so unprepared to play a Power 5 team, that their kick returner handed the Tigers a touchdown by tossing it to the back judge without downing the ball.  This Clemson team has started to resemble the Florida State team of 2014.  That FSU team was considerably weaker than the 2013 champion, but they still made it to the playoffs.  We are not sure this CU team is playoff worthy, but they have time to right the ship.

Georgia Tech is 3-0 and looks like a defensive juggernaut in the process.  However, a closer look shows their defensive performance has come against three teams that would have trouble scoring in 11 on 0 practice drills.  Tech’s next three games could see a reverse in defensive performance.  Still, the Yellow Jackets are mighty tough to prepare for, and when you take away two days of preparation, it could make this a rather interesting game to watch.

Saturday

Florida at Tennessee

Butch Jones’ legacy in Knoxville is like an almost finished book.  The one major chapter of his mystery novel is the one where you find out who did it.  If Florida did it, ole Butch may not get a chance to write the sequel.

Florida has won 11 straight games in this series.  The average score in this streak has been 29-16, although the last two have both been decided by a single point.  The Gators are going to have to make due with Austin Appleby at quarterback after starter Luke Del Rio injured his knee on a cheap shot tackle by North Texas.  Appleby would become the second former Purdue quarterback to start a game for an SEC team in the last two weeks (Danny Etling @ LSU).  After replacing Del Rio, Appleby completed passes of 11 and 19 yards against the Mean Green in his four attempts.  At Purdue, Appleby had a tendency to force throws where he should not have passed, and his interception rate was  4%, about 45% higher than the QB that sent him packing from West Lafayette.

Josh Dobbs has not been what he was expected to be this year.  It looks like the coaching staff has put a governor on his scrambling and is not calling for Dobbs to keep the ball on many designed running plays.  That might change this week, as the Vols need to pull out all the stops to move the ball against Geoff Collins’ defense.

Tennessee is not without major losses due to injury, and it affects a trio of excellent starting defensive players.  All-American punt returner and very good cornerback Cameron Sutton will be out for several weeks. All-SEC weakside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin should be able to play, but he will be far from 100%, and the Vols are hurting depthwise here, as middle linebacker Darrin Kirkland and backup hybrid linebacker/safety Quarte Sapp will miss the game.

Expect a low-scoring, hard-fought game that comes down to the final few minutes.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M in Arlington, TX (Dallas Cowboys Stadium)–The Southwest Classic

What can these two former Southwest Conference rivals do for a second encore after the last two games in Jerryworld went to overtime?  The Aggies won both games, and it would not surprise us again if the game was still to be decided late in the fourth quarter.  Arkansas has not beaten A&M since the Aggies joined the SEC.

Both teams have big wins already this year.  Arkansas won at TCU, while A&M topped UCLA, so they have been tested, and we expect a quality game from both sides.  It was hoped that Austin Allen would be able to approach his graduated brother Brandon’s stats at quarterback, but through three games, little brother has greatly surpassed expectations.  Add to this fact that running back Rawleigh Williams has done an admirable job replacing Alex Collins.  It has been the Razorback defense that has not quite lived up to expectations.

As for the Aggies, Kevin Sumlin has dealth with his critics in recent years since Johnny Manziel left College Station, and most of that criticism has come from subsequently weaker offenses year over year.  We may ask these critics why a 44-31 win is better than a 29-16 win?  This Aggie team can play defense, as most defenses led by legendary guru John Chavis tend to do.  Against Josh Rosen and UCLA, the Aggie defense produced five sacks and three interceptions.  Auburn tried to throw short, and A&M didn’t give up yards after the catch.

Arkansas will try to combine pounding the ball up the gut with vertical passes to Keon Hatcher combined with spreading the field and finding Drew Morgan, tight end Jeremy Sprinkle, and Dominique Reed.

Stanford at UCLA

The must-win games continue to allow Stanford a chance to stay in the playoff hunt.  A win over USC at home was just fine.  A win at UCLA and by a larger margin than the Bruins fell at Texas A&M, gives the Cardinal the much-needed ammunition to fight against the Clemson’s, Louisville’s, and Houston’s.  SU must run the table against a weaker Pac-12 slate, and a win at the Rose Bowl Saturday night pumps up their resume.  A loss, and it’s all up to Washington and Arizona State to carry the Pac-12 banner.

Boise St. at Oregon St.

The Broncos are now in a multi-team battle with South Florida, Houston, Memphis, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Toledo, and San Diego State for the NY6 Bowl Bid.  For that matter, throw in a surprising Army team into this mix and don’t eliminate the other two service academies just yet.

This game is Boise’s best resume builder for the rest of the season, even though the Beavers are at the bottom of the Pac-12.  It is almost required that BSU wins this game by at least 17 points, or they might have to be the last remaining undefeated team in December.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings–Predictive
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.1 123.6 130.9 128.5
2 Louisville 127.9 121.7 128.1 125.9
3 Ohio St. 122.9 122.2 124.4 123.2
4 LSU 124.0 118.3 123.0 121.8
5 Michigan 121.9 119.8 122.5 121.4
6 Tennessee 121.8 117.1 121.8 120.2
7 Oklahoma 120.0 117.3 119.9 119.1
8 Clemson 122.2 113.9 120.7 118.9
9 Stanford 121.4 114.2 120.3 118.6
10 Washington 121.0 113.2 121.1 118.4
11 Miami 120.1 112.8 120.0 117.6
12 Houston 115.5 113.6 117.7 115.6
13 Oklahoma St. 115.3 116.3 115.1 115.6
14 Florida St. 117.9 110.6 116.8 115.1
15 North Carolina 117.2 110.5 116.9 114.9
16 Virginia Tech 114.5 114.1 114.8 114.5
17 Texas A&M 114.8 113.8 114.8 114.5
18 Pittsburgh 115.9 111.4 115.0 114.1
19 Iowa 115.1 112.0 114.8 114.0
20 Auburn 113.9 112.4 113.8 113.4
21 Mississippi St. 114.4 111.7 113.7 113.3
22 Notre Dame 114.9 111.2 113.6 113.2
23 Florida 112.6 116.3 110.8 113.2
24 Michigan St. 113.5 112.5 111.7 112.6
25 Texas 112.1 113.6 111.2 112.3
26 TCU 111.9 113.5 111.5 112.3
27 USC 114.3 109.9 111.6 111.9
28 Oregon 112.3 111.0 111.5 111.6
29 Arkansas 113.7 108.8 111.0 111.2
30 South Florida 111.6 109.0 112.8 111.1
31 Ole Miss 113.6 107.1 112.4 111.0
32 Georgia 111.0 111.1 110.9 111.0
33 UCLA 111.4 110.4 111.0 110.9
34 Baylor 110.4 110.5 111.5 110.8
35 Nebraska 111.8 108.4 111.9 110.7
36 Wisconsin 111.1 109.0 111.7 110.6
37 Georgia Tech 111.0 107.2 110.4 109.5
38 Boise St. 108.0 109.4 110.3 109.2
39 Colorado 110.1 105.6 110.6 108.8
40 Utah 110.8 105.1 108.7 108.2
41 Kansas St. 107.2 110.2 107.1 108.2
42 BYU 110.3 103.6 109.7 107.9
43 Penn St. 107.2 109.0 105.9 107.4
44 Arizona St. 107.5 108.1 106.3 107.3
45 West Virginia 107.2 106.6 106.8 106.9
46 Western Michigan 106.8 104.8 108.6 106.7
47 Washington St. 107.6 104.8 107.5 106.7
48 North Carolina St. 106.9 104.7 106.3 106.0
49 San Diego St. 105.8 102.9 108.2 105.7
50 Minnesota 105.1 103.1 104.8 104.3
51 Central Michigan 103.0 105.7 104.2 104.3
52 Northwestern 106.4 101.2 104.8 104.1
53 Texas Tech 105.5 103.3 103.4 104.1
54 Toledo 104.2 102.8 105.2 104.1
55 Missouri 104.1 103.3 103.9 103.8
56 Indiana 101.8 106.3 101.4 103.2
57 Arizona 104.3 102.0 103.1 103.1
58 Cincinnati 101.9 102.5 102.6 102.4
59 Maryland 101.4 105.0 99.2 101.9
60 Memphis 103.7 99.6 102.0 101.8
61 California 105.0 96.6 102.7 101.4
62 Air Force 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 101.8 99.5 100.9 100.8
64 Tulsa 99.7 102.0 100.4 100.7
65 Vanderbilt 102.5 98.3 101.0 100.6
66 South Carolina 100.9 99.9 100.4 100.4
67 Boston College 100.5 99.5 100.0 100.0
68 Temple 99.9 99.6 100.3 100.0
69 Western Kentucky 100.8 96.4 102.0 99.7
70 Syracuse 101.4 97.6 99.2 99.4
71 Virginia 100.4 97.4 99.7 99.2
72 Duke 99.0 99.8 97.3 98.7
73 Navy 98.8 98.7 98.3 98.6
74 Appalachian St. 97.7 96.4 99.8 98.0
75 Army 93.8 102.0 97.1 97.6
76 Connecticut 97.5 95.3 97.7 96.9
77 Rutgers 98.0 95.5 96.4 96.7
78 Purdue 97.6 95.2 96.6 96.5
79 Illinois 97.6 94.3 96.6 96.2
80 East Carolina 95.1 97.2 95.5 95.9
81 Oregon St. 98.4 93.6 95.8 95.9
82 Kentucky 94.9 97.5 93.6 95.3
83 Ohio 91.5 100.1 92.5 94.7
84 Utah St. 93.9 96.7 93.5 94.7
85 Middle Tennessee 94.0 95.3 94.5 94.6
86 Iowa St. 95.0 94.7 93.8 94.5
87 Northern Illinois 93.7 94.9 94.4 94.3
88 Southern Mississippi 93.8 93.7 94.8 94.1
89 New Mexico 92.2 95.2 93.0 93.5
90 Nevada 91.6 95.1 92.8 93.2
91 SMU 92.6 91.8 91.9 92.1
92 Georgia Southern 91.3 91.3 93.6 92.1
93 UNLV 89.8 94.2 89.9 91.3
94 Troy 88.6 93.6 90.5 90.9
95 Louisiana Tech 89.8 92.0 90.9 90.9
96 Marshall 88.7 93.1 90.5 90.8
97 Arkansas St. 88.7 90.7 90.2 89.9
98 San Jose St. 89.8 89.8 90.0 89.9
99 Akron 86.7 93.1 88.1 89.3
100 Bowling Green 89.7 88.5 89.1 89.1
101 Central Florida 88.2 90.6 88.2 89.0
102 Colorado St. 86.0 88.7 86.5 87.1
103 Ball St. 85.9 87.9 86.8 86.9
104 Kansas 85.0 92.5 82.3 86.6
105 Tulane 85.5 88.6 85.7 86.6
106 Old Dominion 85.4 88.3 85.7 86.5
107 Kent St. 84.1 85.8 84.3 84.8
108 Rice 81.8 89.6 81.8 84.4
109 Miami (O) 83.6 84.4 84.7 84.2
110 Wyoming 83.9 83.6 84.1 83.9
111 Georgia St. 81.5 86.6 83.2 83.8
112 Florida Atlantic 81.7 85.1 83.3 83.4
113 UTSA 79.6 87.5 82.1 83.1
114 South Alabama 80.0 87.6 81.4 83.0
115 Florida International 80.2 87.1 80.9 82.7
116 Massachusetts 79.5 87.5 81.0 82.7
117 Eastern Michigan 79.9 85.1 80.8 81.9
118 Fresno St. 80.5 84.6 80.1 81.7
119 Buffalo 77.8 86.6 79.0 81.2
120 UL-Lafayette 75.8 84.4 77.7 79.3
121 Idaho 76.0 81.8 77.3 78.4
122 New Mexico St. 75.4 78.0 76.2 76.5
123 Hawaii 77.1 75.8 76.2 76.4
124 North Texas 74.6 77.0 74.6 75.4
125 UTEP 72.3 76.7 73.8 74.3
126 Charlotte 70.5 77.7 71.6 73.3
127 Texas St. 71.6 72.7 72.8 72.4
128 UL-Monroe 70.1 75.2 70.7 72.0

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Houston
5 Michigan
6 Tennessee
7 Stanford
8 Washington
9 Louisville
10 Arkansas
11 Texas A&M
12 Wisconsin
13 Baylor
14 LSU
15 Florida St.
16 Georgia
17 Michigan St.
18 Utah
19 Florida
20 Oklahoma
21 Nebraska
22 Miami (Fla)
23 San Diego St.
24 Ole Miss
25 South Florida
26 Toledo
27 Western Michigan
28 North Carolina
29 Iowa
30 Oregon
31 Boise St.
32 West Virginia
33 TCU
34 Navy
35 UCLA
36 Central Michigan
37 Notre Dame
38 Arizona St.
39 Oklahoma St.
40 Virginia Tech
41 Memphis
42 California
43 USC
44 Georgia Tech
45 Western Kentucky
46 Auburn
47 Pittsburgh
48 Georgia Southern
49 Texas
50 Minnesota
51 Texas Tech
52 Colorado
53 Penn St.
54 BYU
55 Kansas St.
56 Air Force
57 Indiana
58 Washington St.
59 Mississippi St.
60 Maryland
61 Wake Forest
62 North Carolina St.
63 Cincinnati
64 Army
65 South Carolina
66 Arizona
67 Tulsa
68 Akron
69 Missouri
70 Utah St.
71 Appalachian St.
72 Northwestern
73 East Carolina
74 Troy
75 Southern Miss.
76 Temple
77 Marshall
78 Louisiana Tech
79 Nevada
80 Colorado St.
81 Vanderbilt
82 Middle Tennessee
83 Rutgers
84 Connecticut
85 Ohio
86 Duke
87 Bowling Green
88 Ball St.
89 SMU
90 Kentucky
91 Arkansas St.
92 Boston College
93 Syracuse
94 Illinois
95 Texas St.
96 Purdue
97 Oregon St.
98 San Jose St.
99 Wyoming
100 UL-Lafayette
101 Virginia
102 UTEP
103 Idaho
104 South Alabama
105 Northern Illinois
106 Tulane
107 New Mexico
108 Central Florida
109 Fresno St.
110 Iowa St.
111 UNLV
112 Old Dominion
113 Florida Atlantic
114 Rice
115 New Mexico St.
116 Kansas
117 Georgia St.
118 Massachusetts
119 UTSA
120 Eastern Michigan
121 Kent St.
122 Hawaii
123 UL-Monroe
124 Miami (O)
125 Buffalo
126 Florida Int’l.
127 Charlotte
128 North Texas

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.6 109.0 112.8 111.1
Cincinnati 101.9 102.5 102.6 102.4
Temple 99.9 99.6 100.3 100.0
Connecticut 97.5 95.3 97.7 96.9
East Carolina 95.1 97.2 95.5 95.9
Central Florida 88.2 90.6 88.2 89.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 115.5 113.6 117.7 115.6
Memphis 103.7 99.6 102.0 101.8
Tulsa 99.7 102.0 100.4 100.7
Navy 98.8 98.7 98.3 98.6
SMU 92.6 91.8 91.9 92.1
Tulane 85.5 88.6 85.7 86.6
         
AAC Averages 99.2 99.1 99.4 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisville 127.9 121.7 128.1 125.9
Clemson 122.2 113.9 120.7 118.9
Florida St. 117.9 110.6 116.8 115.1
North Carolina St. 106.9 104.7 106.3 106.0
Wake Forest 101.8 99.5 100.9 100.8
Boston College 100.5 99.5 100.0 100.0
Syracuse 101.4 97.6 99.2 99.4
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 120.1 112.8 120.0 117.6
North Carolina 117.2 110.5 116.9 114.9
Virginia Tech 114.5 114.1 114.8 114.5
Pittsburgh 115.9 111.4 115.0 114.1
Georgia Tech 111.0 107.2 110.4 109.5
Virginia 100.4 97.4 99.7 99.2
Duke 99.0 99.8 97.3 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.2 107.2 110.4 109.6
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 120.0 117.3 119.9 119.1
Oklahoma St. 115.3 116.3 115.1 115.6
Texas 112.1 113.6 111.2 112.3
TCU 111.9 113.5 111.5 112.3
Baylor 110.4 110.5 111.5 110.8
Kansas St. 107.2 110.2 107.1 108.2
West Virginia 107.2 106.6 106.8 106.9
Texas Tech 105.5 103.3 103.4 104.1
Iowa St. 95.0 94.7 93.8 94.5
Kansas 85.0 92.5 82.3 86.6
         
Big 12 Averages 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.0
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 122.9 122.2 124.4 123.2
Michigan 121.9 119.8 122.5 121.4
Michigan St. 113.5 112.5 111.7 112.6
Penn St. 107.2 109.0 105.9 107.4
Indiana 101.8 106.3 101.4 103.2
Maryland 101.4 105.0 99.2 101.9
Rutgers 98.0 95.5 96.4 96.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 115.1 112.0 114.8 114.0
Nebraska 111.8 108.4 111.9 110.7
Wisconsin 111.1 109.0 111.7 110.6
Minnesota 105.1 103.1 104.8 104.3
Northwestern 106.4 101.2 104.8 104.1
Purdue 97.6 95.2 96.6 96.5
Illinois 97.6 94.3 96.6 96.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.3
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 100.8 96.4 102.0 99.7
Middle Tennessee 94.0 95.3 94.5 94.6
Marshall 88.7 93.1 90.5 90.8
Old Dominion 85.4 88.3 85.7 86.5
Florida Atlantic 81.7 85.1 83.3 83.4
Florida International 80.2 87.1 80.9 82.7
Charlotte 70.5 77.7 71.6 73.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Mississippi 93.8 93.7 94.8 94.1
Louisiana Tech 89.8 92.0 90.9 90.9
Rice 81.8 89.6 81.8 84.4
UTSA 79.6 87.5 82.1 83.1
North Texas 74.6 77.0 74.6 75.4
UTEP 72.3 76.7 73.8 74.3
         
CUSA Averages 84.1 87.7 85.1 85.6
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 114.9 111.2 113.6 113.2
BYU 110.3 103.6 109.7 107.9
Army 93.8 102.0 97.1 97.6
Massachusetts 79.5 87.5 81.0 82.7
         
Independents Averages 99.6 101.1 100.4 100.4
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.5 100.1 92.5 94.7
Akron 86.7 93.1 88.1 89.3
Bowling Green 89.7 88.5 89.1 89.1
Kent St. 84.1 85.8 84.3 84.8
Miami (O) 83.6 84.4 84.7 84.2
Buffalo 77.8 86.6 79.0 81.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 106.8 104.8 108.6 106.7
Central Michigan 103.0 105.7 104.2 104.3
Toledo 104.2 102.8 105.2 104.1
Northern Illinois 93.7 94.9 94.4 94.3
Ball St. 85.9 87.9 86.8 86.9
Eastern Michigan 79.9 85.1 80.8 81.9
         
MAC Averages 90.6 93.3 91.5 91.8
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 108.0 109.4 110.3 109.2
Air Force 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
Utah St. 93.9 96.7 93.5 94.7
New Mexico 92.2 95.2 93.0 93.5
Colorado St. 86.0 88.7 86.5 87.1
Wyoming 83.9 83.6 84.1 83.9
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 105.8 102.9 108.2 105.7
Nevada 91.6 95.1 92.8 93.2
UNLV 89.8 94.2 89.9 91.3
San Jose St. 89.8 89.8 90.0 89.9
Fresno St. 80.5 84.6 80.1 81.7
Hawaii 77.1 75.8 76.2 76.4
         
MWC Averages 91.6 93.2 92.2 92.3
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 121.4 114.2 120.3 118.6
Washington 121.0 113.2 121.1 118.4
Oregon 112.3 111.0 111.5 111.6
Washington St. 107.6 104.8 107.5 106.7
California 105.0 96.6 102.7 101.4
Oregon St. 98.4 93.6 95.8 95.9
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 114.3 109.9 111.6 111.9
UCLA 111.4 110.4 111.0 110.9
Colorado 110.1 105.6 110.6 108.8
Utah 110.8 105.1 108.7 108.2
Arizona St. 107.5 108.1 106.3 107.3
Arizona 104.3 102.0 103.1 103.1
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.3 106.2 109.2 108.6
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 121.8 117.1 121.8 120.2
Florida 112.6 116.3 110.8 113.2
Georgia 111.0 111.1 110.9 111.0
Missouri 104.1 103.3 103.9 103.8
Vanderbilt 102.5 98.3 101.0 100.6
South Carolina 100.9 99.9 100.4 100.4
Kentucky 94.9 97.5 93.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 131.1 123.6 130.9 128.5
LSU 124.0 118.3 123.0 121.8
Texas A&M 114.8 113.8 114.8 114.5
Auburn 113.9 112.4 113.8 113.4
Mississippi St. 114.4 111.7 113.7 113.3
Arkansas 113.7 108.8 111.0 111.2
Ole Miss 113.6 107.1 112.4 111.0
         
SEC Averages 112.4 110.0 111.6 111.3
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 97.7 96.4 99.8 98.0
Georgia Southern 91.3 91.3 93.6 92.1
Troy 88.6 93.6 90.5 90.9
Arkansas St. 88.7 90.7 90.2 89.9
Georgia St. 81.5 86.6 83.2 83.8
South Alabama 80.0 87.6 81.4 83.0
UL-Lafayette 75.8 84.4 77.7 79.3
Idaho 76.0 81.8 77.3 78.4
New Mexico St. 75.4 78.0 76.2 76.5
Texas St. 71.6 72.7 72.8 72.4
UL-Monroe 70.1 75.2 70.7 72.0
         
Sun Belt Averages 81.5 85.3 83.0 83.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.4 110.0 111.6 111.3
2 ACC 111.2 107.2 110.4 109.6
3 Pac-12 110.3 106.2 109.2 108.6
4 Big Ten 108.0 106.7 107.3 107.3
5 Big 12 107.0 107.9 106.3 107.0
6 Independents 99.6 101.1 100.4 100.4
7 AAC 99.2 99.1 99.4 99.2
8 MWC 91.6 93.2 92.2 92.3
9 MAC 90.6 93.3 91.5 91.8
10 CUSA 84.1 87.7 85.1 85.6
11 Sun Belt 81.5 85.3 83.0 83.3

This Week’s Spreads

Thursday, September 22  PiRate Mean  Bias 
Georgia Tech Clemson -8.2 -3.7 -7.3
         
Friday, September 23  PiRate  Mean  Bias 
Eastern Michigan Wyoming -1.0 4.5 -0.3
Utah USC -0.5 -1.8 0.1
         
         
Saturday, September 24  PiRate  Mean  Bias 
Akron Appalachian St. -8.0 -0.3 -8.7
Buffalo Army -14.0 -13.4 -16.1
Cincinnati Miami (O) 20.8 20.6 20.4
Connecticut Syracuse -1.9 -0.3 0.5
Indiana Wake Forest 3.0 9.8 3.5
Kentucky South Carolina -3.0 0.6 -3.8
Michigan Penn St. 17.7 13.8 19.6
Michigan St. Wisconsin 5.4 6.5 3.0
North Carolina Pittsburgh 4.3 2.1 4.9
Purdue Nevada 9.0 3.1 6.8
South Florida Florida St. -3.8 0.9 -1.5
Temple Charlotte 31.9 24.4 31.2
Tennessee Florida 12.2 3.8 14.0
Virginia Central Michigan 0.4 -5.3 -1.5
Virginia Tech East Carolina 22.4 19.9 22.3
West Virginia (N) BYU -0.1 6.0 0.1
Western Michigan Georgia Southern 18.5 16.5 18.0
Iowa St. San Jose St. 8.2 7.9 6.8
Old Dominion UTSA 8.3 3.3 6.1
Rutgers Iowa -14.1 -13.5 -15.4
Alabama Kent St. 50.0 40.8 49.6
Auburn LSU -7.1 -2.9 -6.2
Baylor Oklahoma St. -1.9 -2.8 -0.6
Minnesota Colorado St. 22.1 17.4 21.3
Ole Miss Georgia 5.6 -1.0 4.5
Texas A&M (N) Arkansas 1.1 5.0 3.8
Tulane UL-Lafayette 11.7 6.2 10.0
Memphis Bowling Green 17.0 14.1 15.9
Troy New Mexico St. 16.2 18.6 17.3
Utah St. Air Force -4.0 -1.6 -4.9
Arizona Washington -13.7 -8.2 -15.0
Arizona St. California 5.5 14.5 6.6
Oregon Colorado 5.2 8.4 3.9
Oregon St. Boise St. -6.6 -12.8 -11.5
UCLA Stanford -7.0 -0.8 -6.3
Massachusetts Mississippi St. -32.4 -21.7 -30.2
Notre Dame Duke 18.9 14.4 19.3
Western Kentucky Vanderbilt 1.3 1.1 4.0
Fresno St. Tulsa -16.2 -14.4 -17.3
Florida Atlantic Ball St. -1.2 0.2 -0.5
Rice North Texas 9.7 15.1 9.7
Texas St. Houston -41.9 -38.9 -42.9
Florida Int’l. Central Florida -6.0 -1.5 -5.3
Middle Tennessee Louisiana Tech 6.7 5.8 6.1
Northwestern Nebraska -2.4 -4.2 -4.1
Marshall Louisville -36.4 -26.1 -35.1
SMU TCU -17.3 -19.7 -17.6
UTEP Southern Miss. -18.5 -14.0 -18.0
UNLV Idaho 16.8 15.4 15.6
FBS vs. FCS Week 4  
Home Visitor PiRate
Boston College Wagner 36
Ohio Gardner-Webb 30
Missouri Delaware St. 45
South Alabama Nicholls St. 19
Arkansas St. Central Arkansas 21
Northern Illinois Western Illinois 13
Kansas St. Missouri St. 42

 

 

 

August 23, 2016

2016 Atlantic Coast Conference Football Preview

Just five seasons ago, the old Big East Conference could make an arguable case that their league was more powerful than the Atlantic Coast Conference. No ACC Team made the final top 20 in the AP Poll that year. Conference champion Clemson fell to Big East Champion West Virginia 70-33 in the Orange Bowl.

There was talk among some that the Big East should be the fifth power conference, as the ACC had not enjoyed a powerful team that competed for a national champion for the past 11 seasons.

It started with Clemson and Florida State becoming strong once again, but it did not end there. North Carolina and Georgia Tech challenged for top 10 finishes. Louisville and Pittsburgh joined the league bringing quality football. Duke, long the doormat, enjoyed a resurgence not seen in Durham for more than 50 years.

Now, the ACC begins the season as the PiRate Ratings’ number two conference. The difference between number two and number five is small, but it is a first for this league. With quality teams from top to near bottom, this league should produce several quality bowl-eligible teams this year, and if the ball bounces right for one team, which could be any of four or five in this league, it would not be surprising to see another Playoff representative, making it three for three.

In the past three seasons, Florida State won the national title, then the Seminoles lost to Oregon in the semifinals of the NCAA Playoffs, and last year, Clemson handily defeated Oklahoma before falling in a great final to Alabama. Tallying 40 points and more than 500 yards against Alabama is a rarity about as frequently seen as Sir Edmund Halley’s Comet.

2016 looks to be another big season for this league. Three teams in the Atlantic Division have the talent to run the table and earn a playoff spot, but because there are three, more than likely, they will beat each other with Clemson playing at Florida State, Florida State playing at Louisville, and Louisville playing at Clemson.

Boston College and North Carolina State have better talent this season than last, but it will be hard for either team to steal a victory over the big three. The Eagles must play the Wolfpack in Raleigh on Homecoming, so NCSU has a leg up for the four-spot.

Syracuse begins anew with famed offensive wizard Dino Babers coming to the Carrier Dome from Bowling Green. He inherits a squad not ready to speed up the game and average more than 80 scrimmage plays per game. The Orangemen averaged 20 fewer plays per game than that last year, and the talent is not there for Syracuse to spread the field and run and throw like Baylor.

Wake Forest may be a touchdown better team this year than they were last year, and third-year head coach, and predeccesor to Babers at Bowling Green, Dave Clawson should see his Demon Deacons compete for bowl eligibility. We think the Deacs will come up a game or two short, but opponents will not consider playing WF as a breather game. Florida State and Louisville almost fell last year, and we believe some higher-rated team will go down in 2016. There are six or seven winnable games, so Clawson’s crew could get a 13th game in December.

The Coastal Division could be a four or five-team race this year. Pittsburgh begins the season as the highest ranked team in the division, but the Panthers’ schedule is unfavorable, and depth issues could become a concern quite early. Pitt hosts Penn State in week two and then plays at Oklahoma State and North Carolina on the road the following two weeks. Then, beggining October 27, the Panthers host Virginia Tech and play back-to-back road games against Miami and Clemson. We believe that the highest rated Coastal team could actually end up in fourth place in the standings.

The three teams that could finish ahead of Pitt are North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Miami. Of the trio, Miami has the most favorable schedule for tiebreaking purposes. We expect the Tar Heels, Hokies, and Hurricanes to possibly finish in a three-way tie for first, as none of the top four teams are solid enough to run the table.

Georgia Tech and Duke are headed in opposite directions this year from last year, but not by a lot. The Yellow Jackets are a dark horse team this year after finishing 3-9 last year while losing pretty. Close losses to Notre Dame, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Georgia made the Yellow Jackets a 9-3 team with just a tad more talent and fewer turnovers. With an experienced quarterback returning to run the spread option offense, and with power and speed in the skill positions, look for the Techsters to engineer a much better offense this season, adding 5-7 points per game to their average. A potentially porous defense may be the only thing keeping Coach Paul Johnson’s team from competing for the division flag, something Tech won just two seasons ago.

Coach David Cutcliffe deserves a lot of credit for guiding Duke to four consecutive bowl games and three consecutive winning seasons. The last time the Blue Devils finished with three consecutive winning seasons was 1961-62-63. This year, the Blue Devils have a lot of talent to replace on both sides of the ball, but there is still enough talent to contend for a fifth consecutive bowl eligible season. At this point, we think they will come up a bit short.

Virginia begins a new philosophy with first year head coach Bronco Mendenhall. The former BYU head coach brings a history of winning with whatever talent he has available. Mendenhall has won with a predominant passing game and with a three yards and cloud of dust running team. Mendenhall is a defensive coach by trade, so he brought along former East Carolina coach Ruffin McNeal to run the Cavaliers’ offense. Look for UVa to be more exciting this year, but the record may be about the same.

Here is how the ACC Media selected the order of finish for this season.

# Atlantic Division 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Clemson 148 1,293 144
2 Florida St. 42 1,176 39
3 Louisville 1 961 1
4 North Carolina St. 0 704  
5 Boston College 0 441  
6 Syracuse 0 426  
7 Wake Forest 0 347  
         
# Coastal Division 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 North Carolina 121 1,238 7
2 Miami (Fla) 50 1,108  
3 Pittsburgh 14 859  
4 Virginia Tech 3 697  
5 Duke 2 597  
6 Georgia Tech 1 588  
7 Virginia 0 261  

Here are the initial PiRate Ratings for the ACC

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 126.8 116.4 125.7 123.0
Florida St. 122.9 115.4 121.9 120.1
Louisville 118.6 111.8 118.0 116.1
North Carolina St. 108.0 104.7 107.6 106.8
Boston College 105.1 103.6 104.9 104.5
Syracuse 105.2 101.0 103.1 103.1
Wake Forest 102.3 99.2 101.5 101.0
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Pittsburgh 117.1 111.7 116.4 115.1
North Carolina 117.4 109.2 117.1 114.6
Miami 116.6 108.0 115.9 113.5
Virginia Tech 111.0 110.8 111.5 111.1
Georgia Tech 108.1 104.2 107.4 106.6
Virginia 104.4 101.2 103.8 103.1
Duke 99.4 100.7 98.0 99.4
         
ACC Averages 111.6 107.0 110.9 109.9

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.
Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

Atlantic Coast Conference Projected Standings
Atlantic Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Florida St. 7-1 12-1 * NY6–Orange
Clemson 7-1 11-1 NY6–Cotton
Louisville 6-2 10-2 Russell Athletic
North Carolina St. 4-4 7-5 Military
Boston College 2-6 6-6 Quick Lane
Wake Forest 2-6 5-7  
Syracuse 1-7 3-9  
       
Coastal Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Miami (Fla) 6-2 9-4 Belk
North Carolina 6-2 10-2 Taxslayer
Virginia Tech 6-2 8-4 Pinstripe
Pittsburgh 5-3 8-4 Sun
Georgia Tech 3-5 6-6 Independence
Duke 2-6 4-8  
Virginia 0-8 3-9  

Coming Tomorrow–It has been said that there are three equally tough conferences in American Football–the AFC, the NFC, and the SEC.  Once again, the Southeastern Conference begins the year as the clear-cut best league in college football, and three teams have legitimate National Championship aspirations.

 

Also Coming Tomorrow–Our updated ratings and selections for week one of the college football season–all one game.  California and Hawaii kick off the college season Friday night in Australia (Saturday Australia Time).  Then, one week from Thursday, the season begins in earnest.

February 5, 2016

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks For February 6-7, 2016

Breaking News: The University of Louisville has self-imposed a ban on the postseason for this year.  This means one extra bubble team just benefitted greatly.

 

Here are this weekend’s picks from the top 6 conferences.

 

Remember:

Red= An algorithm based 100% on the Four Factors

White= An algorithm combining the Four Factors and a Least Squares formula on who beat who where and when

Blue= A 100% ratings’ based algorithm concentrating on scoring margin and strength of schedule

All ratings rounded to nearest whole number except when that number is 0.  Then, even if the rating is 1/1000 of a point different, the team 1/1000 of a point better is listed as a 1-point favorite.

Games Scheduled for: Saturday, February 6, 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Pittsburgh Virginia -2 1 1
Wake Forest Florida St. -4 -5 -3
Louisville Boston College 24 26 19
Duke North Carolina St. 12 12 10
Virginia Tech Clemson 1 1 -1
Notre Dame North Carolina -3 -1 -5
TCU Kansas -10 -10 -12
Oklahoma St. Iowa St. -4 -4 1
Texas Texas Tech 7 6 8
Kansas St. Oklahoma -7 -3 -7
West Virginia Baylor 8 8 10
Xavier Marquette 15 14 12
Creighton Depaul 12 15 17
Providence Villanova -4 -2 -5
St. John’s Butler -11 -14 -8
Seton Hall Georgetown 6 16 9
Michigan Michigan St. -3 -3 -5
Nebraska Rutgers 16 17 14
Maryland Purdue 5 5 6
Penn St. Indiana -10 -24 -15
California Stanford 8 8 7
Washington Arizona -3 -2 -9
Washington St. Arizona St. -3 -5 -3
Oregon St. Colorado 2 -1 -1
Alabama Missouri 11 10 10
Kentucky Florida 6 4 7
Texas A&M South Carolina 9 7 10
Georgia Auburn 10 13 7
LSU Mississippi St. 8 9 14
Arkansas Tennessee 7 7 8
Ole Miss Vanderbilt -2 -3 2

 

Games Schedule for: Sunday, February 7 2016
Home Visitor Red White Blue
Georgia Tech Miami (Fl.) -3 -2 -5
Illinois Iowa -13 -11 -16
Oregon Utah 11 9 12

 

January 25, 2016

America’s Most Accurate Bracketology Composite—January 25, 2016

There has been little change in the bracketology rankings in the last six days, but there has been a shifting in the seedings.  Additionally, we have moved another mid-major team ahead of some at-large major conference opponents.  This now allows for two 11-seeds and two 12-seeds to appear in First Four games in Dayton.

Let’s start with the One-Big Leagues.  As of today, there are 23 one-bid leagues, but in the case of two or three leagues, if the overwhelming favorite fails to earn the automatic bid, there is a puncher’s chance that these leagues will steal a second bid away from an at-large team.

America East

Stony Brook 6-0/15-4 is beginning to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the league.  The Seawolves mounted a late charge Saturday to knock off second place Albany.  They must make up a game tonight against Maine, and then they play at Vermont on Saturday.  If SB wins both games, the regular season title is almost assured.

 

Atlantic Sun

North Florida (6-0/17-6) took sole possession of first place after Lipscomb upset Florida Gulf Coast (4-1/13-8) thanks to raining threes for 40 minutes.  It will be a big bird fight this Saturday when the Ospreys and Eagles meet at FGCU.

 

Big Sky

The two previously unbeaten teams in conference play lost last week.  Montana (7-1/12-7) and Weber State (5-1/13-6) now have six additional contenders to worry about in a league where just the top 8 of the 12 teams qualify for the conference tournament.  It should be an exciting three days for this league when determining their one automatic bid.

 

Big South

UNC-Asheville (7-2/14-7) lost at High Point (6-3/13-7) in the middle of last week, and now this league is a wide-open race with Winthrop (6-3/14-6), Coastal Carolina (5-4/11-8), Radford (5-4/12-9), and Gardner-Webb (5-4/10-11) all in contention.  This will also be an exciting conference tournament.

 

Big West

It looks like a two-team race between Hawaii (5-0/16-2) and UC-Irvine (5-0/16-5).  The Warriors have won eight games in a row including one over Auburn, while their two losses were on the road by eight at Texas Tech and by three to Oklahoma.  UH should be in the discussion for at-large worthiness.  UCI has won nine of ten games, with the sole loss coming at Kansas.  In that KU game, UCI led for almost all of the first half, as the Jayhawks were hesitant to penetrate the lane against 7 foot 6 inch titan Mamadou Ndiaye and backup center, 7 foot 2 inch Herculean Ioannis Dimakopoulos.

 

Colonial Athletic

This is a tight three-way race at the moment with a group of two or three more capable of getting back into the hunt.  James Madison (6-2/16-5), UNC-Wilmington (6-2/14-5), and Hofstra (6-2/14-6) lead two others by a game and two additional teams by two games.  JMU won at Hofstra in overtime, so the Dukes are the team to beat for now.

 

Conference USA

This race is starting to evolve into a three-team contest.  UAB (7-0/17-3) has won 14 consecutive games, but they have no signature wins and cannot possibly earn an at-large bid with their resume.  Middle Tennessee (6-1/14-5) and Marshall (6-1/10-10) are a game back, but UAB must still play at both contenders plus host Marshall.

 

Horizon

With six consecutive wins, including an 11-point victory over the co-leader, Wright State (7-1/13-8) has moved into the penthouse with Valparaiso (7-1/17-4).  The race will probably come down to the wire, with a February 13 game left at Valpo, the Crusaders are still the slight favorite.  If Valpo wins 25 games and then loses to Wright State in the Horizon League Tournament Championship, there is a very slim chance the Crusaders could sneak an at-large bid.  They have semi-big wins against Oregon State and Belmont.

 

Ivy

The Ivy League is the most prestigious academic group in the nation, but their athletic scheduling is just plain goofy. Six of the eight teams have played two conference games.  In all six cases, the teams played home and home against one other conference team.  Yale (2-0/11-5) swept Brown. Columbia (2-0/13-6) swept Cornell; and Harvard (1-1/9-9) and Dartmouth (1-1/7-9) split their two games.  Princeton (1-0/11-4) appears to be the best in the league, and the Tigers won their lone conference game over Penn.  There are no big wins outside of the league, and there is no conference tournament.  The regular season champ gets the automatic bid, but there is a playoff in any tie for first, even if one team swept the other in the regular season.

 

Metro Atlantic

Monmouth (7-2/15-5) is the only team with multiple quality wins (UCLA, USC, Notre Dame, and Georgetown), but the Hawks are struggling to keep the lead in the MAAC having lost at Manhattan (5-4/8-10) last week.  St. Peter’s (6-2/8-9) had snuck into a tie until losing to fading Iona (7-3/10-9).  Siena (6-3/13-7) has won four of five to move into contention.  While Monmouth has the best chance of becoming a Sweet 16 darling, they have not wrapped up a bid and will most likely get the shaft if they do not earn the automatic bid.

 

Mid-American

The MAC is the final remaining conference to divide its teams into basketball divisions.  There are two teams in both divisions that look capable of winning an opening round NCAA Tournament game, but this league will not receive multiple bids.  In the four-way cat fight for the lone bid are Kent State (5-1/14-5) and Akron (4-2/15-4) from the East and Northern Illinois (5-1/16-3) and Ball State (4-2/13-6) from the West.  Akron has the best out-of-conference success with wins over Arkansas, Marshall, and Iona.

 

Mideastern Athletic

Hampton (7-0/11-7) has opened up a game and a half lead over Norfolk State (5-1/9-12) and a 2 1/2 game lead over Howard (3-1/9-10).  If the Pirates win the bid, the MEAC might avoid a First Four game in Dayton, but that is still not definite.

 

Missouri Valley

This is the one of two leagues where the number of bids will move from one to two if the one behemoth loses in the MVC Tournament.  Wichita State (8-0/14-5) is going to be in the Big Dance whether it is an automatic or at-large invitation.  If the Shockers win Arch Madness, then the MVC is almost guaranteed to be a one-bid league.  Southern Illinois (7-1/18-3) and Evansville (6-2/17-4) look like they have records deserving of at-large contention, but SIU has no resume-building win, while the Purple Aces can boast of wins over Belmont and UC-Irvine, which is not going to get them in the Dance without having a guaranteed ticket.

 

Mountain West

This is the other league where an upset in the conference tournament could see a second bid awarded to the league.  San Diego State (7-0/14-6) is the class of the league again, but the Aztecs cannot count on a definite at-large invitation if they come up short in the conference tourney.  SDSU has a win over Cal, when the Bears were ranked in the top 15, but UC has fallen out of the rankings.  The Aztecs have losses to power teams in Utah, West Virginia, and Kansas.  Boise State (6-1/15-5) has a win over Oregon as well as non-embarrassing losses to Michigan State and Arizona twice.  The Broncos lost at home to SDSU.

 

Northeast

Eight of the Ten teams can still win the conference title, and any of the eight could win the conference tournament.  Mount St. Mary’s (6-2/9-12) leads, but Wagner (5-3/12-7) would probably give the conference a better chance to avoid Dayton and a First Four game.

 

Ohio Valley

Belmont (7-0/15-6) sprinted to a 20+ – point lead over Tennessee State (5-1/14-5) in their first meeting of the season yesterday, before withstanding a late Tiger rally to make it close.  One of these two Nashville rivals should get the automatic bid.

 

Patriot

This looks like a three-team race for the conference title, and the winner hosts the conference tournament, so it is important to win the regular season title.  Bucknell (7-1/10-9) is the closest thing to a dynasty team in this league.  Navy (6-1/15-5) and Colgate (6-2/10-9) are the two others contending for first.

 

Southern

Chattanooga (6-1/17-3) has wins over Georgia and Dayton as well as a win over leading contender East Tennessee (6-1/13-7).  Mercer (4-3/14-6) still hosts the co-leaders, so the Bears have a chance.

 

Southland

This league is quickly improving each year, and the time may come when the SLC challenges the Missouri Valley for Mid-Major supremacy.  Houston Baptist (7-0/12-7) has won 10 of 11 games, and Texas A&M-Corpus Christie (6-0/15-3) has won 14 of 15 games but neither the Huskies nor the Islanders have yet to face multiple time defending champ Stephen F. Austin (6-0/13-5).  Incarnate Word (4-1/9-7) is ineligible for the bid, but the Cardinals may have a say in who does, by changing a seed or two.

 

Southwestern Athletic

The SWAC has been a regular in the First Four in recent years.  It looks very possible like the league champ will be headed to Dayton again this year.  Texas Southern (6-0/7-11).  Southern (5-2/13-7) and Jackson State (5-2/10-10) are the top two contenders.  As has been the case in the SWAC in recent years, one of the better league teams, Alcorn State (5-2/7-11) is not eligible for the tournament due to low APR scores.

 

Summit

Maybe it is Peyton Manning’s year, because Omaha 6-1/14-7) leads the league.  The Mavericks will have to hold off a fiesty trio of competitors in South Dakota State (5-2/16-5), IPFW (5-2/16-6), and IUPUI (5-2/9-13).  Our money is on SDSU to win the conference tournament.  The Jackrabbits have the best program in the league.

 

Sun Belt

What will it take for Arkansas-Little Rock (7-1/17-2) to get some respect?  The Trojans won at San Diego State and Tulsa in the pre-conference schedule and have run out to a game and a half lead in the league?  UALR could make it to the Dance with 30 wins and still be a prohibitive underdog in their first game due to lower than deserved seeding.  Texas-Arlington (5-2/14-4) is the chief contender.

 

Western Athletic

The hands-down best team in the league in the last three or four seasons won’t get the opportunity to play for a spot in the Dance.  Grand Canyon (5-0/18-2) is ineligible for a couple more years.  New Mexico State (5-1/13-8) and Cal State Bakersfield (4-1/14-6) are the next best two in line.

 

The League In The Cracks

American Athletic

With SMU ineligible for the tournament, the AAC could very well find itself with just one bid this year, but there are five teams capable of earning at-large bids as of now.  We cannot put a second AAC team in this week’s Field, but we cannot place the league with the definite one-bid only conferences.

Tulsa (5-2/13-6) and Temple (5-2/11-7) lead Connecticut (4-2/14-5) and Central Florida (4-2/10-7) by a half game with Cincinnati (5-3/15-6) lurking close behind.  Memphis (3-3/12-7) is still alive and capable of winning the automatic bid.  Temple upset previously unbeaten SMU yesterday.

 

The Multi-Bid Leagues

We moved one league from possible second bid to definite second bid this week.  The West Coast Conference went from one and maybe another to two definite as of now.

Atlantic Coast

Safe

North Carolina (7-0/18-2)

Louisville (5-1/16-3)

Pittsburgh (5-2/16-3)

Miami (4-2/15-3)

Duke (4-3/15-5)

Virginia (4-3/15-4)

Okay for Now

Notre Dame (5-2/14-5)

Bubble–IN

Syracuse (3-5/13-8)

Bubble–OUT

Clemson (5-2/12-7)

Florida St. (2-5/12-7)

 

Atlantic 10

Safe

Dayton (6-1/16-3)

Okay for Now

—–

Bubble–IN

Virginia Commonwealth (7-0/15-5)

St. Joseph’s (5-1/16-3)

George Washington (4-2/15-4)

Bubble–OUT

Davidon (3-3/11-6)

 

Big 12

Safe

Oklahoma (5-2/16-2)

Kansas (5-2/16-3)

West Virginia (5-2/16-3)

Iowa St. (4-3/15-4)

Baylor (5-2/15-4)

Okay for Now

Texas (4-3/12-7)

Bubble–IN

Texas Tech (2-5/12-6)

Bubble–OUT

Kansas St. (2-5/12-7)

 

Big East

Safe

Villanova (7-1/17-3)

Xavier (5-2/17-2)

Okay for Now

Providence (4-2/17-3)

Bubble–IN

Seton Hall (3-4/13-6)

Butler (2-5/13-6)

Bubble–OUT

Creighton (5-2/14-6)

Georgetown (5-2/12-8)

 

Big Ten

Safe

Iowa (7-0/16-3)

Indiana (7-0/17-3)

Maryland (6-2/17-3)

Michigan (5-2/15-5)

Purdue (5-3/17-4)

Michigan St. (4-4/17-4)

Okay for Now

—–

Bubble–IN

—–

Bubble–OUT

Ohio St. (4-3/12-8)

 

Pac-12

Safe

Oregon (5-2/16-4)

Arizona (4-3/16-4)

USC (4-3/15-5)

Okay for Now

Utah (4-3/15-5)

Colorado (4-3/15-5)

Bubble–IN

Washington (5-2/13-6)

California (4-3/14-6)

UCLA (3-4/12-8)

Bubble–OUT

Stanford (4-3/11-7)

Oregon St. (3-4/12-6)

 

Southeastern

Safe

Texas A&M (7-0/17-2)

Kentucky (5-2/15-4)

Okay for Now

South Carolina (4-2/17-2)

Florida (5-2/13-6)

Bubble–IN

—–

Bubble–OUT

LSU (5-2/12-7)

Georgia (4-3/11-6)

Vanderbilt (3-4/11-8)

Ole Miss (2-5/12-7)

Alabama (1-5/10-8)

 

West Coast

Safe

—–

Okay for Now

St. Mary’s (8-1/17-2)

Bubble–IN

Gonzaga (7-2/15-5)

Bubble–OUT

—–

 

The Field of 68 Seeded

# Team
1 Oklahoma
1 North Carolina
1 Villanova
1 Kansas
2 Iowa
2 Xavier
2 Texas A&M
2 Virginia
3 West Virginia
3 Michigan St.
3 Iowa St.
3 Oregon
4 Maryland
4 Miami (FL.)
4 Louisville
4 Purdue
5 Arizona
5 Kentucky
5 Dayton
5 Duke
6 USC
6 Providence
6 Baylor
6 Indiana
7 Pittsburgh
7 Notre Dame
7 Michigan
7 Texas
8 Utah
8 Florida
8 South Carolina
8 Wichita St.
9 Colorado
9 St. Mary’s
9 California
9 Connecticut
10 George Washington
10 VCU
10 Butler
10 Seton Hall
11 St. Joseph’s
11 Texas Tech
11 Washington
11 Gonzaga
11 Valparaiso
12 Syracuse
12 UCLA
12 Monmouth
12 San Diego St.
12 UALR
13 Chattanooga
13 Hawaii
13 UAB
13 Stony Brook
14 James Madison
14 Northern Illinois
14 Omaha
14 Princeton
15 Belmont
15 Texas A&M-CC
15 North Florida
15 Montana
16 UNC-Asheville
16 New Mexico St.
16 Bucknell
16 Hampton
16 Wagner
16 Texas Southern

Last 4 IN–First Four Games in Dayton

Syracuse vs. UCLA

Gonzaga vs. Washington

First 4 OUT

Cincinnati

Florida St.

LSU

Creighton

Next 4 OUT

Stanford

Boise St.

Evansville

Vanderbilt

 

 

 

February 9, 2015

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Report for Monday, February 9, 2015

We at the PiRate Ratings have realized that the public can find much more accurate bracketology data than that provided by the famous bracketologists at the major media outlets.  We have known this because as regular annual participants in the Football Prediction Tracker, you don’t see the most famous computer ranking services finishing at the top.  Looking at this week’s Basketball Prediction Tracker record of picking winning teams (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/bbresults.php), you will see that it is our new experimental PiRate White and PiRate Red rankings that sit at number one and number two at 77.2% and 76.5%.  It’s always some math genius, sports fan professor of mathematics at some university (or somebody like us who got lucky and finished first twice before).

 

Bracketology is not an exact science.  There is no sabermetric formula you can plug into a computer and spit out the 68 teams that should be selected for the tournament.  There is no Batter’s Wins, Pitcher’s Wins, and Fielding Wins that show you the Mike Trout’s of college basketball.

 

Instead, we have smart guys like Patrick Stevens of the Syracuse Post-Standard newspaper, who for several years has been putting out bracketology selections considerably more accurate than the famous gurus at the major outlets.  Stevens is not alone.  We have isolated more than two dozen bracketologists with five or more years experience that all dust the major competition in accuracy.

 

When you combine these less known but more accurate hard-working guys, their composite selections are about as accurate as you will find anywhere.  For instance, two years ago, a couple successfully selected all 68 teams, and the rest picked 66 or 67 teams out of 68 correctly.  As a combined group, the composite successfully picked all 68 teams correctly.  Last year, the group as a whole hit on 67 of 68.

 

We first became interested in finding a more accurate bracketology experience when most of the gurus failed to select Virginia Commonwealth to make the Big Dance in 2011, and the Rams merely advanced to the Final Four.  One of the big-time selectors failed to include Dayton in last year’s predictions, and the Flyers advanced to the Elite 8.

 

And so, continuing today and appearing frequently until Selection Sunday, we will monitor our 20-something unknown Einsteins and keep what we call the PiRate Composite Bracketology rankings.

 

Report for Monday, February 09, 2015

 

Let’s begin with the one-bid leagues.  21 conferences will send just one team to the NCAA Tournament.  In the case of 20 of these 21, the conference tournament winner will receive that lone bid.

 

The Ivy League may never hold a dedicated conference tournament, but many times in the past, a post-season playoff for first place has given the league a quasi-tournament.  In the Ivy, any team finishing tied for first qualifies for a playoff, even if one of the co-champs swept the other in the regular season.  Harvard and Yale could very well play in March to determine the league champ.

 

For the one bid leagues, we will name the top contenders at the present time based on conference won-lost record.

 

America East Conference Overall
Albany 11-0 16-7
Vermont 9-2 14-10
New Hampshire 7-4 14-10
Stony Brook 6-4 15-10
     
Atlantic Sun Conference Overall
Florida Gulf Coast 7-1 17-7
North Florida 7-1 15-10
USC Upstate 5-3 18-7
     
Big Sky Conference Overall
Sacramento St. 10-1 16-6
Eastern Washington 9-1 18-5
Montana 8-3 12-10
Northern Arizona 7-3 12-11
Northern Colorado 7-4 12-10
     
Big South Conference Overall
High Point 8-4 17-7
Coastal Carolina 8-4 17-7
Radford 8-4 17-8
Gardner-Webb 8-4 16-9
Charleston Southern 8-4 14-9
Winthrop 8-4 13-10
UNC Asheville 8-4 12-11
     
Big West Conference Overall
UC Davis 8-1 18-4
UC Irvine 7-2 14-9
Long Beach St. 7-2 13-12
     
Colonial Conference Overall
William & Mary 9-3 15-8
Northeastern 8-4 16-9
UNC Wilmington 8-4 13-10
Hofstra 7-5 16-9
James Madison 7-5 14-11
Drexel 7-5 9-14
     
Conference USA Conference Overall
Louisiana Tech 9-2 18-6
Western Kentucky 9-2 16-7
U A B 9-2 13-11
U T E P 8-3 16-7
Old Dominion 7-3 18-4
UT San Antonio 6-5 12-10
Middle Tennessee 6-5 13-11
     
Horizon Conference Overall
Valparaiso 9-2 22-4
Cleveland St. 9-2 15-10
Green Bay 8-2 19-5
Oakland 7-3 12-13
     
Ivy League Conference Overall
Harvard 5-1 15-5
Yale 5-1 16-7
Princeton 3-2 10-11
Columbia 3-3 11-9
Cornell 3-3 11-11
     
M A C Conference Overall
Bowling Green 7-3 15-6
Akron 7-3 16-7
Kent St. 7-3 16-7
Toledo 7-3 15-8
Central Michigan 6-4 16-5
Buffalo 6-4 15-7
Western Michigan 5-5 14-9
     
M A A C Conference Overall
Iona 11-2 18-6
Rider 10-4 16-9
Manhattan 9-5 12-11
Monmouth 9-5 13-12
     
M E A C Conference Overall
UNC Central 10-0 18-6
Norfolk St. 9-1 16-9
Howard 6-3 12-11
UM-Eastern Shore 6-4 13-12
South Carolina St. 6-4 9-16
     
Northeast Conference Overall
St. Francis (NY) 10-2 16-9
Robert Morris 8-4 12-12
Bryant 8-4 11-12
St. Francis (PA) 7-5 13-10
Mt. St. Mary‘s 7-5 11-12
     
Ohio Valley Conference Overall
Murray St. 11-0 21-4
Tenn-Martin 7-3 15-8
Belmont 7-4 15-9
Eastern Illinois 7-4 14-10
Morehead St. 7-4 12-14
Eastern Kentucky 6-4 14-9
     
Patriot Conference Overall
Bucknell 8-4 13-12
Colgate 8-4 11-14
Lehigh 7-5 13-10
Lafayette 6-5 14-8
     
Southern Conference Overall
Wofford 11-1 20-5
Chattanooga 9-3 16-9
Mercer 9-3 14-11
Western Carolina 7-6 12-13
     
Southland Conference Overall
Stephen F. Austin 9-0 19-3
Sam Houston St. 10-1 18-5
Northwestern St. 7-3 12-9
Texas A&M-C.C. 7-3 12-10
     
Summit Conference Overall
North Dakota St. 9-2 17-7
South Dakota St. 9-3 18-8
Oral Roberts 6-4 13-11
I P F W 6-5 13-11
     
Sun Belt Conference Overall
La. Monroe 10-3 16-8
Georgia Southern 9-3 16-5
Georgia St. 9-4 16-8
UT-Arlington 7-5 13-9
La. Lafayette 7-6 13-11
     
S W A C Conference Overall
Texas Southern 8-2 11-12
Jackson St. 5-5 7-16
Prairie View 5-5 7-16
Alabama A&M 5-5 6-14
     
W A C Conference Overall
New Mexico St. 7-1 15-10
U M K C 5-3 10-15
Seattle 4-4 11-11

 

The remaining 11 conferences will divvy up the 47 remaining bids.  For these conferences, we will list the teams by the average seed given to them by our two dozen plus experts.  If an expert left a team off his list, we assign a seed of “20” to this team to lower their overall seeding.  Thus, it is better to be the last team in the Big Dance on every bracketologist’s list and seeded at 13 than to be a 12-seed on 80% and not included on 20%.

 

American Conference Overall Seed
Tulsa 10-1 17-6 12
SMU 10-2 19-5 7
Cincinnati 8-3 17-6 7
Temple 8-3 17-7 13
Memphis 6-4 14-9 Out
Connecticut 6-4 13-9 Out
       
Atlantic 10 Conference Overall Seed
V C U 8-2 18-5 5
Rhode Island 8-2 16-5 Bubble
Dayton 7-3 17-5 10
George Washington 7-3 17-6 1st out
U Mass 7-3 14-9 8th out
Davidson 6-4 15-6 Bubble
St. Bonaventure 6-4 13-8 Out
       
A C C Conference Overall Seed
Virginia 9-1 21-1 1
Notre Dame 9-3 21-4 4
North Carolina 8-3 18-6 3
Duke 7-3 20-3 1
Louisville 7-3 19-4 3
Clemson 6-5 14-9 7th out
Pittsburgh 5-5 16-8 Bubble
Miami (FL) 5-5 15-8 13
N.C. State 5-6 14-10 6th out
       
Big East Conference Overall Seed
Villanova 8-2 21-2 2
Butler 8-3 18-6 5
Providence 7-4 17-7 6
Georgetown 7-5 15-8 7
Xavier 6-6 15-9 9
DePaul 6-6 12-13 Out
Seton Hall 5-6 15-8 12
St. John’s 4-6 15-8 12
       
Big Ten Conference Overall Seed
Wisconsin 9-1 21-2 2
Maryland 7-4 19-5 4
Ohio St. 7-4 18-6 8
Indiana 7-4 17-7 7
Purdue 7-4 15-9 4th out
Iowa 6-4 15-8 8
Michigan St. 6-4 15-8 11
Illinois 6-5 16-8 11
Michigan 6-6 13-11 Bubble
Minnesota 4-7 15-9 Bubble
       
Big 12 Conference Overall Seed
Kansas 8-2 19-4 2
Iowa St. 7-3 17-5 3
Oklahoma 7-4 16-7 4
Baylor 6-4 18-5 3
West Virginia 6-4 18-5 6
Oklahoma St. 6-5 16-7 6
Kansas St. 5-6 12-12 Out
Texas 4-6 15-8 8
       
Missouri Valley Conference Overall Seed
Northern Iowa 11-1 22-2 5
Wichita St. 11-1 21-3 5
       
Mountain West Conference Overall Seed
Wyoming 8-3 19-5 10th out
San Diego St. 8-3 18-6 9
Boise St. 7-3 17-6 5th out
Colorado St. 7-4 20-4 9
       
Pac-12 Conference Overall Seed
Arizona 8-2 20-3 2
Utah 8-2 18-4 4
Oregon 7-4 17-7 3rd out
Oregon St. 7-4 16-7 Out
Stanford 7-4 16-7 10
U C L A 6-5 14-10 2nd out
Washington 3-8 14-9 Bubble
       
S E C Conference Overall Seed
Kentucky 10-0 23-0 1
Arkansas 7-3 18-5 6
Texas A&M 7-3 16-6 10
Ole Miss 7-3 16-7 9
L S U 6-4 17-6 10
Georgia 6-4 15-7 8
Tennessee 5-5 13-9 Bubble
Florida 5-5 12-11 9th out
Alabama 4-6 14-9 Bubble
       
West Coast Conference Overall Seed
Gonzaga 12-0 24-1 1
Saint Mary’s 10-2 18-5 Bubble
B Y U 8-5 18-8 Bubble
Pepperdine 8-5 15-9 Out

 

Using the average seeding of all the teams, here is how the experts see the top four seeds per region as of today.

 

South Seed
Kentucky 1
Arizona 2
Louisville 3
Maryland 4
   
East Seed
Virginia 1
Villanova 2
Iowa St. 3
Oklahoma 4
   
Midwest Seed
Duke 1
Kansas 2
North Carolina 3
Utah 4
   
West Seed
Gonzaga 1
Wisconsin 2
Baylor 3
Notre Dame 4

 

This is how our experts seed the eight teams that must play an opening round game in Dayton.  This includes the last four teams making the NCAA Tournament as #12 or #13 seeds as well as the lowest four-seeded teams among those that receive automatic bids.

 

Opening Round Games at Dayton
Miami (FL.) vs. St. John’s
Temple vs. Seton Hall
America East Champion vs. Patriot Champion
S W A C Champion vs. Northeast Champion

 

How about the top five teams from conferences that will receive just one bid?  There are five teams seen as capable of beating a higher seed, including one team deemed to be talented enough to sneak into the Sweet 16.

 

Top 5 Teams From 1-bid Leagues
Old Dominion Sweet 16
Stephen F. Austin 1 win
Louisiana Tech 1 win
Valparaiso 1 win
Murray St. 1 win

 

So you want some dark horse candidates to sneak into the Final Four.  Here are four teams that have qualities that can make it hard for opponents to prepare to play on short notice.  This is a quartet of teams that could make an unexpected run to the Final Four.

 

4 Darkhorse Final 4 Candidates
Indiana
Iowa St.
Northern Iowa
Utah

 

Every year, a top-6 seed loses its opening round game in such a way that it really does not look like an upset.  In the past Georgetown and Vanderbilt have lost multiple times to double-digit seeds in such a way that the underdog looked like it could win nine times out of 10.  Here are the teams this season most vulnerable to losing a first round game as the favorite, while looking like they might lose nine times out of 10 to the “upset” winner.

 

5 1st Round Upset Candidates
Arkansas
Maryland
Notre Dame
Oklahoma St.
Villanova

 

Congratulations to Georgetown!  The Hoyas appear to have the talent to win that first round game this year.

 

Here are the 10 most vulnerable at-large teams this week.  A couple of unexpected losses or too many unexpected losses will send these teams to the NIT.

 

Last 10 IN Overall Seed
Miami (FL) 68
Temple 67
Seton Hall 66
St. John’s 65
Tulsa 64
Michigan St. 63
Illinois 62
Texs A&M 61
L S U 60
Stanford 59

 

Here are the top 10 teams waiting to move up into the field if and when some of the last 10 flub up.  These teams are one winning steak or a big win or two away from moving into the field of 68.

 

1st 10 Out Overall Seed
George Washington 69
U C L A 70
Oregon 71
Purdue 72
Boise St. 73
N. C. St. 74
Clemson 75
U Mass 76
Florida 77
Wyoming 78

 

We will have another update next Monday, February 16.  It won’t be long until the first conference tournaments commence.  Three weeks from tomorrow, the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, and Patriot League tournaments start.

 

We will have the conference tournament seeds and score updates daily starting with Monday, March 2.

 

Older Posts »

Blog at WordPress.com.