The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Thursday, March 21, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Louisville

114.1

0.0

Minnesota

109.7

4.4

LSU

114.6

0.0

Yale

106.1

8.5

Auburn

115.7

0.0

New Mexico St.

108.9

6.8

Vermont

105.7

1.0

Florida St.

115.4

-8.7

Michigan St.

121.1

0.0

Bradley

99.8

21.3

Maryland

113.1

0.0

Belmont

109.5

3.6

Kansas

114.5

0.0

Northeastern

105.8

8.7

Marquette

112.6

0.0

Murray St.

109.2

3.4

Nevada

113.1

0.0

Florida

111.5

1.6

Kentucky

118.0

0.0

Abilene Christian

101.4

16.6

Villanova

111.9

1.0

Saint Mary’s

111.1

1.8

Gonzaga

122.9

0.0

Fairleigh-Dickinson

97.3

25.6

Michigan

119.0

0.0

Montana

102.4

16.6

Wofford

113.6

0.0

Seton Hall

108.9

4.7

Purdue

117.1

0.0

Old Dominion

103.6

13.5

Syracuse

110.8

0.0

Baylor

110.0

0.8

Schedule for Thursday

Time

Game

TV

Location

12:15 p.m.

(10) Minnesota vs. (7) Louisville

CBS

Des Moines

12:40 p.m.

(14) Yale vs. (3) LSU

truTV

Jacksonville 

1:30 p.m.

(12) New Mexico St. vs. (5) Auburn

TNT

Salt Lake City 

2 p.m.

(13) Vermont vs. (4) Florida St.

TBS

Hartford 

Approx. 2:30 PM

(15) Bradley vs. (2) Michigan St.

CBS

Des Moines 

Approx. 2:55 PM

(11) Belmont vs. (6) Maryland

truTV

Jacksonville 

Approx. 3:45 PM

(13) Northeastern vs. (4) Kansas

TNT

Salt Lake City 

Approx. 4:15 PM

(12) Murray St. vs. (5) Marquette

TBS

Hartford 

6:50 p.m.

(10) Florida vs. (7) Nevada

TNT

Des Moines 

7:10 p.m.

(15) Abilene Christian vs. (2) Kentucky

CBS

Jacksonville 

7:20 p.m.

(11) Saint Mary’s vs. (6) Villanova

TBS

Hartford 

7:27 p.m.

(16) Fairleigh-Dickinson vs. (1) Gonzaga

truTV

Salt Lake City

Approx. 9:20 PM

(15) Montana vs. (2) Michigan

TNT

Des Moines 

Approx. 9:40 PM

(10) Seton Hall vs. (7) Wofford

CBS

Jacksonville 

Approx. 9:50 PM

(14) Old Dominion vs. (3) Purdue

TBS

Hartford 

Approx. 9:57 PM

(9) Baylor vs. (8) Syracuse

truTV

Salt Lake City 

Happy Spring!

 

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March 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 3, 2019

Games Scheduled for:

Sunday

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Charlotte

91.7

2.5

UTEP

93.3

0.9

Connecticut

105.5

3.0

South Florida

103.4

5.1

DePaul

103.9

2.5

St. John’s

108.6

-2.2

Florida Int’l.

96.9

2.5

Louisiana Tech

101.7

-2.3

Georgia Tech

103.9

3.0

Boston College

104.8

2.1

Illinois

106.9

2.0

Northwestern

106.7

2.2

Louisiana

100.0

2.5

Appalachian St.

97.7

4.8

Louisville

113.5

3.0

Notre Dame

105.9

10.6

Marist

95.5

2.5

Rider

98.6

-0.6

Marquette

113.5

3.0

Creighton

109.5

7.0

Maryland

113.4

3.0

Michgan

117.8

-1.4

Niagara

92.2

2.5

Siena

95.3

-0.6

North Texas

101.6

3.0

Marshall

98.7

5.9

Oregon St.

106.2

3.0

Arizona St.

108.0

1.2

Quinnipiac

96.9

2.5

Manhattan

90.5

8.9

Rice

94.4

2.5

Middle Tennessee

94.9

2.0

Saint Peter’s

92.1

2.0

Fairfield

93.4

0.7

SMU

104.3

3.0

Wichita St.

104.3

3.0

Stanford

104.5

2.5

Washington

110.2

-3.2

Temple

106.8

3.0

Tulane

92.3

17.5

Tulsa

103.0

3.0

East Carolina

93.6

12.4

UTSA

100.1

2.5

UAB

99.7

2.9

Western Kentucky

103.3

3.0

Southern Miss.

102.2

4.1

 

Updated Conference Tournament Brackets

The Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament commences Monday night with four quarterfinal games.  In all, 11 conference brackets are now set and will begin play in the next week.  Here in order by the date these tournaments begin, are the 11 brackets.

Atlantic Sun Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Monday, March 4

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Lipscomb (23-6)

8

Kennesaw St. (6-25)

2

Liberty (25-6)

7

Jacksonville (12-19)

3

North Florida (15-16)

6

North Alabama (10-21)

4

Florida Gulf Coast (14-17)

5

NJIT (20-11)

Semifinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8

Higher Seed

4/5

Lower Seed

2/7

Higher Seed

3/6

Lower Seed

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8/4/5

Higher Seed

2/3/6/7

Lower Seed

 

Big South Conference

Site: Home and #1 Seed

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

Presbyterian (17-14)

10

UNC-Asheville (4-26)

6

Charleston Southern (15-14)

11

USC Upstate (6-25)

8

Hampton (14-15)

9

Longwood (15-16)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7 (at Campbell)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Radford (20-10)

7/10

Presbyterian/UNC-Asheville

3

Winthrop (18-11)

6/11

Chas Sou./USC Upstate

1

Campbell (19-11)

8/9

Hampton/Longwood

4

Gardner-Webb (20-11)

5

High Point (16-14)

Semifinals–Thursday, March 8 (at Campbell)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

2/7/10

3/6/11

1/8/9

4/5

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Higher Seeded Team)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Site: Higher Seed and Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 & Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1

Wright St. (19-12)

8

IUPUI (16-15)

4

Green Bay (16-15)

5

Illinois-Chicago (16-15)

3

Oakland (15-16)

6

Youngstown St. (12-19)

2

Northern Kentucky (23-8)

7

Detroit (11-19)

Semifinals–Friday, March 15 (Detroit for last two rounds)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8

Wright St./IUPUI

4/5

Green Bay/Illinois-Chi.

2/7

N Kentucky/Detroit

3/6

Oakland/Youngstown St.

Championship Game–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

First Round–Tuesday, March 5

Seed

Home

Visitors

8

Boston U (14-17)

9

Loyola (MD) (11-20)

7

Lafayette (10-19)

10

Holy Cross (15-16)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Colgate (21-10)

8/9

Boston/Loyola (MD)

2

Bucknell (19-10)

7/10

Lafayette/Holy Cross

3

Lehigh (19-10)

6

Army (13-18)

4

American (15-14)

5

Navy (11-18)

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8/9

Higher Seed

4/5

Lower Seed

2/7/10

Higher Seed

3/6

Lower Seed

Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Higher Semifinal Winner

Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

St. Francis (PA) (16-13)

8

Bryant (10-19)

2

Fairleigh-Dickinson (17-13)

7

Wagner (13-16)

3

Sacred Heart (15-16)

6

Long Island (15-15)

4

Robert Morris (16-15)

5

St. Francis (Bklyn) (17-14)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Highest Remaining Seed

Lowest Remaining Seed

2nd Highest Remaining Seed

3rd Highest Remaining Seed

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Higher Semifinal Winner

Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

First Round–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Morehead St. (12-19)

8

SIU Edwardsville (10-20)

6

Eastern Illinois (14-17)

7

UT-Martin (11-18)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

Austin Peay (21-10)

5/8

Morehead/SIU-Edwardsville

3

Jacksonville St. (23-8)

6/7

E. Illinois/UT-Martin

Semifinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Belmont (25-4)

4/5/8

APSU/Mhead/SIUE

2

Murray St. (25-4)

3/6/7

JvilleSt/EIU/UTM

Championship Game–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)

Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Indiana St. (15-15)

9

Valparaiso (14-17)

7

Illinois St. (16-15)

10

Evansville (11-20)

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Loyola (Chi) (19-12)

8/9

Ind St./Valpo

4

Missouri St. (16-15)

5

Bradley (17-14)

2

Drake (23-8)

7/10

Ill St./Evansville

3

Southern Illinois (17-14)

6

Northern Iowa (14-17)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Loyola/Ind St./Valpo

4/5

MSU/Bradley

2/7/10

Drake/Ill St/Evans

3/6

SIU/UNI

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

West Coast Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

San Diego (18-13)

10

Portland (7-24)

8

Pepperdine (13-17)

9

Pacific (14-17)

Second Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

6

Santa Clara (16-14)

7/10

USD/Portland

5

Loyola Marymount (20-10)

8/9

Pepper/Pacific

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

BYU (19-12)

6/7/10

SCU/USD/Portland

4

San Francisco (21-9)

5/8/9

LMU/Pepper/Pacific

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Saint Mary’s (20-11)

3/6/7/10

BYU/SCU/USD/Portland

1

Gonzaga (29-2)

4/5/8/9

USF/LMU/Pepper/Pacific

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Southern Conference

Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC

First Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

VMI (10-20)

9

Western Carolina (7-24)

7

Samford (16-15)

10

The Citadel (12-17)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Wofford (26-4)

8/9

VMI/Western Carolina

4

East Tennessee St. (23-8)

5

Chattanooga (12-19)

2

UNC Greensboro (26-5)

7/10

Samford/Citadel

3

Furman (24-6)

6

Mercer (11-19)

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Woff/VMI/WCU

4/5

ETSU/Chatt

2/7/10

UNCG/Sam/Cit

3/6

Furman/Mercer

Championship Game–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC

First Round–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

James Madison (13-18)

9

Towson (10-21)

7

Elon (11-20)

10

UNC Wilmington (9-22)

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Hofstra (25-6)

8/9

JMU/Towson

4

William & Mary (14-16)

5

Delaware (16-15)

2

Northeastern (20-10)

7/10

Elon/UNCW

3

Charleston (23-8)

6

Drexel (13-18)

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Hofstra/JMU/Towson

4/5

Wm&Mary/Delaware

2/7/10

NEastern/Elon/UNCW

3/6

Charleston/Drexel

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Summit League

Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9 & Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1 (sat)

South Dakota St. (24-7)

8

Western Illinois (9-20)

4 (sun)

Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)

5

South Dakota (13-16)

3 (sun)

North Dakota St. (15-15)

6

Oral Roberts (11-20)

2 (sat)

Omaha (19-10)

7

North Dakota (12-17)

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8

SDSU/WIU

4/5

PFW/USD

2/7

Omaha/UND

3/6

NDSUORU

Championship Game–Tuesday, March12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for December 29-30, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Teams in Power Conferences

Saturday

Home Team Visitor Spread
North Carolina Davidson 6.2
Notre Dame Coppin St. 28.8
Louisville Kentucky -3.4
Wake Forest Gardner-Webb 3.3
Syracuse St. Bonaventure 11.8
Pittsburgh Colgate 5.4
Miami (Fla.) Campbell 12.4
Kansas Eastern Michigan 17.1
Oklahoma St. Texas A&M–C.C. 18.9
Baylor New Orleans 14.5
Kansas St. George Mason 17.0
Ohio St. High Point 15.3
Penn St. Md.-Baltimore Co. 6.0
Michigan St. Northern Illinois 23.3
Illinois Florida Atlantic 11.9
Rutgers Maine 10.4
Purdue Belmont 9.7
Western Kentucky Wisconsin -6.6
Maryland Radford 8.3
Iowa Bryant 26.6
Utah Nevada -10.1
Washington St. Santa Clara 6.7
Arizona St. Princeton 14.7
UCLA Liberty 6.0
Boise St. Oregon 2.7
California Seattle -0.2
Oregon St. Central Connecticut 16.5
Stanford Long Beach St. 9.9
Mississippi St. BYU 6.8
Tennessee Tennessee Tech 28.0
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 15.9
Missouri Morehead St. 16.5
Ole Miss Florida Gulf Coast 5.6
Texas A&M Texas Southern 12.7
Florida Butler 3.4
Auburn North Florida 19.6

 

Sunday

Home Team Visitor Spread
Michigan Binghamton 23.1
West Virginia Lehigh 13.0
Clemson Lipscomb 9.9
Minnesota Mount St. Mary’s 15.2
Northwestern Columbia 13.9
Georgia U Mass 6.0
USC UC-Davis 12.3

 

Basketball Ratings Explanation

We are very happy to have your patronage here at the PiRate Ratings, and we know that since the end of last basketball season, we have seen more than one thousand new readers discover us through other sites.  We really appreciate those of you that have sent us comments saying that you posted our site on sports forums.  We need to explain how we calculate our basketball ratings, which are entirely different from how we calculate our football ratings.

First, our basketball ratings are 100% derived from the “Four Factors” and Schedule Strength.  Thus, it takes a long time to input the ratings for each team, since all 353 teams’ statistics must be updated after every game played by every Division 1 team.  We can only do this late Thursday Night in order to publish on Friday.  You will only see us submit games involving Power Conference teams that are playing Division 1 opponents on Saturday or Sunday every week, until March.  We will occasionally add top Mid-Majors like Gonzaga, Buffalo, and Nevada, as long as they are in the top 25 or close to it and look like at-large candidates for the NCAA Tournament if they don’t get the automatic bid.

What are the Four Factors?

Those of you that know us know that our PiRate Captain is a baseball sabermetrician and former Major League analyticist and scout.  He likes to see the Four Factors as something similar to Weighted On-Base Average and WAR in baseball.  Since baseball players’ stats can be calculated to figure out expected wins, he believes that similar basketball data can be calculated to determine the winner in college basketball games.  He goes one step further, trying to find an algorithm that also estimates the pointspread.  This is an ongoing experiment in its fifth year, with the algorithm being tweaked a little each year, much like the wOBA numbers adjust every year in baseball.

Here are the Four Factors for College Basketball as Used by the PiRate Captain.  Because they apply to offense and defense, they are really like Eight Factors.

1.) Effective Field Goal Percentage 

This is a measure that combines two-point and three-point shooting percentages into one.  Since a made three-point basket is the same as 1.5 made two-point baskets, the easy calculation for this stat is. (FG + 0.5*3pt))/FGA

where FG is all field goals made, 3 pt is three-pointers made, and FGA is all field goals attempted.

If your team makes 28 baskets in a game, with 8 of those being 3-pointers and attempts 60 shots in a game, their EFG% is: (28+(0.5*8)/60, which equals 53.3%

 

2.) Turnover % 

This measures the percentage of possessions in which a team turns the ball over without a shot and conversely forces the opponent to turn the ball over without a shot.  The PiRates add a little bit of a twist to how most analytics folks use this one.  We will explain the R+T factor later, but for now consider that a steal is a more important turnover than all others, because many times a steal leads to easy points and possible fouls.

The TOV% is simply Turnovers per 100 possessions.  So that if a team has 70 possessions in a game and turns the ball over 14 times, their TOV% would be (14/70*100) = 20.0%

College Basketball Possessions are now kept for all games, but if you don’t have access to these stats, you can estimate possessions per game by the following formula used only for college and not NBA (slightly different formula for the pros)

FGA + (0.465* FTA) – Off Rebounds + Turnovers

 

3.) Offensive Rebounding Percentage

This is actually both offensive and defensive rebounding margin, since opponents’ offensive rebounding margin is the other teams’ defensive rebounding margin.

You calculate this for both teams by this easy formula: (100* Off. Rebounds) / (Off. Rebounds + other team’s Def. Rebounds)

If your team has 15 offensive rebounds, and the other team has 25 defensive rebounds, your team’s Off. Reb % is (100*15)/(15+25) =37.5%

 

4.) Free Throw Rate

The “experts” disagree on how to calculate this rating.  Some of the most famous people that release advanced metric cannot come to a consensus.  There is a problem with free throws to begin with, because late in games, the trailing team deliberately fouls the leading team, thus giving the most likely winner more chances at going to the foul line than the actual game flow indicates.  Earlier this year, a team we watched on TV had attempted 12 foul shots in the first 34 minutes of the game, and instead of being ahead by 20 points (which they should have been), they only led by 5 with 6 minutes to play.  The underdog team tried to play pressure defense but could not force turnovers, so they began fouling and fouling and fouling.  Meanwhile, they bricked a lot of 3-pointers at their end, and the final outcome was 17 points.  The winning team with just 12 FTA in the first 34 minutes shot 13 more in the final 6 minutes.

This is the type of thing that gives this part of the rating too much weighting, and we tend to lower the importance of this rating for that purpose.  Over the course of NCAA Basketball history, the top foul shooting teams have tended to underperform in the Big Dance, while the National Champions have tended to be a little below normal in free throw percentage but above normal in drawing fouls, again mostly because the other team is forced to foul in the final minutes.

This is the formula we use at the PiRate Ratings: FT Made per 100 possession.

We hope this explains a little about how we calculate our ratings.  Obviously, to explain our algorithm would be like giving you the formula for Coca-Cola or Pepsi.  Plus, it would be too difficult to explain how we back-tested numbers until we came up with the exact formula, which is tweaked a little every season.

Our Plan For 2019

We plan to issue two posts per week until the start of conference tournament play in late February.  Our Monday or Tuesday publication will be our most popular feature of the entire site.  We have a baker’s dozen of accurate bracketologists (some of whom have their own sites) that send us their weekly bracketology.  We call these guys (and one gal) our Bracket Gurus.  This will be the Gurus’ third year doing this for us.  In 2017, they went 68 for 68 correctly picking every team chosen for the field.  In 2018, they went 67 for 68, so in two years, they have picked 135 out of the 136 teams.  The famous bracketologists on the big national sites average about 65 1/2 correct every year, so our Gurus are better than the leading brands.

We will issue a Friday afternoon publication like this one.  The regular menu for Friday is to post the spreads of the power conference team games for the weekend, our PiRate Ratings rankings, and then something we hope you find of interest.  In the past, we have spotlighted low and mid-major teams that might have a chance to create a little havoc in March; featured the up and coming assistant coaches that we believe will become successful head coaches; and written a little about something interesting in basketball history.  Our captain has been watching college basketball since the 1963-64 season, and he can describe the UCLA-Duke championship game like he is watching live today.  It didn’t hurt that he was a left-handed point guard who thought Gail Goodrich was an older version of him until Louie Dampier starred for Kentucky once Goodrich graduated.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk Team PiRate Rating
1 Duke 122.9
2 Gonzaga 118.5
3 Virginia 117.8
4 Michigan St. 116.3
5 Virginia Tech 115.9
6 Texas Tech 115.2
7 Nevada 115.2
8 Tennessee 115.0
9 Auburn 114.7
10 Wisconsin 114.5
11 Iowa St. 113.7
12 Florida St. 113.4
13 Kansas St. 113.2
14 Villanova 113.0
15 Purdue 113.0
16 Oklahoma 112.6
17 Indiana 112.6
18 Cincinnati 112.0
19 TCU 111.9
20 Buffalo 111.6
21 Florida 111.5
22 Butler 111.1
23 Iowa 111.0
24 Kansas 110.8
25 Creighton 110.4
26 Houston 110.3
27 Mississippi St. 110.2
28 Clemson 110.1
29 Syracuse 110.0
30 Arizona St. 109.8
31 Texas 109.6
32 Michigan 109.6
33 UCF 109.5
34 Kentucky 109.4
35 San Francisco 109.1
36 Saint Mary’s 109.1
37 St. John’s 109.0
38 Utah St. 109.0
39 West Virginia 108.7
40 Fresno St. 108.3
41 Notre Dame 108.3
42 Arizona 108.0
43 Seton Hall 107.9
44 Oklahoma St. 107.9
45 North Carolina 107.8
46 Wofford 107.8
47 Nebraska 107.8
48 Northwestern 107.8
49 Washington 107.7
50 Ohio St. 107.6
51 Alabama 107.4
52 Maryland 107.3
53 Vanderbilt 107.3
54 Baylor 107.2
55 Providence 107.1
56 Toledo 107.1
57 Missouri 107.0
58 Temple 107.0
59 Oregon St. 106.8
60 Belmont 106.8
61 UCLA 106.7
62 Northern Colorado 106.7
63 North Carolina St. 106.6
64 Texas A&M 106.6
65 BYU 106.4
66 VCU 106.4
67 Xavier 106.3
68 San Diego St. 106.3
69 Dayton 106.2
70 Colorado 106.2
71 Marshall 106.0
72 Louisiana 106.0
73 Penn 105.9
74 Loyola Marymount 105.8
75 Connecticut 105.7
76 Old Dominion 105.7
77 Marquette 105.6
78 Ball St. 105.6
79 Davidson 105.6
80 USC 105.6
81 San Diego 105.5
82 SMU 105.5
83 South Dakota St. 105.4
84 Yale 105.3
85 New Mexico 105.3
86 Miami FL 105.0
87 Furman 104.9
88 Boston College 104.9
89 UC Irvine 104.9
90 Hofstra 104.8
91 Georgia 104.8
92 Georgia Tech 104.7
93 Rutgers 104.6
94 Penn St. 104.5
95 Illinois 104.5
96 Rhode Island 104.4
97 Western Kentucky 104.4
98 East Tennessee St. 104.3
99 Harvard 104.3
100 New Mexico St. 104.3
101 Lipscomb 104.2
102 Saint Joseph’s 104.1
103 Georgia St. 104.1
104 Saint Louis 104.1
105 Georgetown 104.1
106 DePaul 104.1
107 Miami OH 104.1
108 Akron 104.0
109 Vermont 104.0
110 Charleston 104.0
111 Northeastern 103.8
112 Loyola Chicago 103.7
113 Liberty 103.7
114 Louisville 103.5
115 Wichita St. 103.5
116 Stanford 103.4
117 LSU 103.2
118 South Carolina 103.2
119 Tulsa 103.0
120 Grand Canyon 102.8
121 Texas St. 102.8
122 Middle Tennessee 102.6
123 Minnesota 102.6
124 Oregon 102.6
125 Southern Illinois 102.6
126 Radford 102.5
127 Georgia Southern 102.4
128 Boise St. 102.3
129 Austin Peay 102.2
130 Drake 102.2
131 Pittsburgh 101.9
132 Massachusetts 101.8
133 Utah Valley 101.7
134 Wright St. 101.7
135 Southern Miss 101.7
136 UCSB 101.6
137 Bucknell 101.6
138 Utah 101.6
139 UNLV 101.5
140 Pacific 101.5
141 UMBC 101.5
142 Rider 101.4
143 Northern Kentucky 101.3
144 St. Bonaventure 101.2
145 Mercer 101.1
146 Wake Forest 101.1
147 Indiana St. 101.0
148 Louisiana Monroe 100.9
149 Gardner Webb 100.8
150 Missouri St. 100.7
151 Brown 100.7
152 Pepperdine 100.6
153 Murray St. 100.6
154 Seattle 100.6
155 Winthrop 100.5
156 LIU Brooklyn 100.4
157 Arkansas 100.1
158 Duquesne 100.1
159 The Citadel 100.0
160 Colgate 100.0
161 Richmond 100.0
162 North Texas 100.0
163 Holy Cross 99.9
164 Louisiana Tech 99.9
165 Bradley 99.8
166 Washington St. 99.8
167 Weber St. 99.8
168 Memphis 99.7
169 Troy 99.7
170 Lehigh 99.7
171 George Mason 99.7
172 UNC Wilmington 99.6
173 Stony Brook 99.6
174 South Florida 99.6
175 Central Michigan 99.6
176 Valparaiso 99.6
177 Samford 99.5
178 Green Bay 99.4
179 Illinois St. 99.4
180 Jacksonville St. 99.3
181 Montana 99.3
182 Cal St. Fullerton 99.2
183 UAB 99.1
184 Abilene Christian 99.1
185 Appalachian St. 99.0
186 Coastal Carolina 98.9
187 North Dakota St. 98.7
188 Ohio 98.6
189 Mississippi 98.6
190 Princeton 98.6
191 UNC Greensboro 98.5
192 Little Rock 98.4
193 South Dakota 98.4
194 Fordham 98.3
195 Bowling Green 98.3
196 IUPUI 98.3
197 Stephen F. Austin 98.2
198 Northern Iowa 98.1
199 Evansville 98.1
200 Hawaii 98.1
201 Purdue Fort Wayne 98.1
202 North Florida 98.1
203 Loyola MD 98.1
204 Omaha 98.0
205 American 98.0
206 South Alabama 97.8
207 NJIT 97.7
208 Portland 97.7
209 Eastern Michigan 97.7
210 William & Mary 97.6
211 Iona 97.5
212 Dartmouth 97.5
213 Western Michigan 97.5
214 Boston University 97.5
215 California 97.4
216 La Salle 97.3
217 Northern Arizona 97.2
218 Maine 97.2
219 Navy 97.2
220 Hartford 97.0
221 Illinois Chicago 97.0
222 UTSA 97.0
223 Canisius 97.0
224 Oral Roberts 97.0
225 St. Francis PA 97.0
226 Columbia 96.9
227 Kent St. 96.8
228 FIU 96.8
229 Arkansas Pine Bluff 96.7
230 UNC Asheville 96.6
231 Cal Baptist 96.5
232 Sacramento St. 96.5
233 Montana St. 96.5
234 Northern Illinois 96.5
235 Long Beach St. 96.5
236 Hampton 96.4
237 Texas Southern 96.4
238 Delaware 96.4
239 Kennesaw St. 96.4
240 UC Davis 96.3
241 Santa Clara 96.1
242 Florida Atlantic 96.1
243 Colorado St. 96.1
244 UTEP 96.1
245 Florida Gulf Coast 96.0
246 Lafayette 95.9
247 High Point 95.8
248 Fairfield 95.7
249 New Orleans 95.7
250 Charleston Southern 95.7
251 Cornell 95.7
252 Campbell 95.6
253 Wagner 95.5
254 Cleveland St. 95.5
255 Cal St. Bakersfield 95.5
256 Southern Utah 95.5
257 Norfolk St. 95.5
258 Milwaukee 95.4
259 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.4
260 Western Illinois 95.3
261 UMKC 95.3
262 Quinnipiac 95.1
263 Wyoming 95.0
264 Towson 95.0
265 Presbyterian 95.0
266 Idaho St. 94.9
267 UT Arlington 94.8
268 Tulane 94.7
269 Lamar 94.7
270 Eastern Kentucky 94.7
271 Niagara 94.7
272 Army 94.7
273 Drexel 94.6
274 Sam Houston St. 94.6
275 Monmouth 94.6
276 Mississippi Valley St. 94.5
277 Nicholls St. 94.4
278 James Madison 94.4
279 Prairie View A&M 94.4
280 Marist 94.4
281 Air Force 94.3
282 Eastern Washington 94.3
283 UT Rio Grande Valley 94.2
284 Northwestern St. 94.2
285 East Carolina 94.2
286 St. Francis NY 94.2
287 Siena 94.2
288 Cal St. Northridge 94.1
289 Robert Morris 94.1
290 George Washington 94.1
291 SEMO 94.0
292 Grambling St. 94.0
293 Central Arkansas 94.0
294 Sacred Heart 94.0
295 Albany 93.9
296 Central Connecticut 93.8
297 Houston Baptist 93.8
298 Saint Peter’s 93.8
299 Portland St. 93.8
300 Detroit 93.7
301 Arkansas St. 93.7
302 Longwood 93.6
303 Morehead St. 93.5
304 Denver 93.4
305 McNeese St. 93.1
306 Howard 93.0
307 North Dakota 93.0
308 Tennessee St. 92.9
309 Chattanooga 92.9
310 UC Riverside 92.9
311 Eastern Illinois 92.8
312 North Carolina Central 92.7
313 UT-Martin 92.6
314 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 92.5
315 Oakland 92.5
316 Morgan St. 92.4
317 Cal Poly 92.3
318 Jackson St. 92.2
319 Jacksonville 92.0
320 Idaho 91.9
321 Charlotte 91.9
322 Bethune Cookman 91.9
323 Western Carolina 91.9
324 New Hampshire 91.7
325 Rice 91.7
326 North Carolina A&T 91.7
327 Elon 91.5
328 Youngstown St. 91.4
329 Southeastern Louisiana 91.4
330 North Alabama 91.3
331 UMass Lowell 91.3
332 VMI 90.7
333 Binghamton 90.5
334 Mount St. Mary’s 90.4
335 USC Upstate 90.1
336 Manhattan 90.1
337 San Jose St. 90.0
338 Alabama St. 90.0
339 SIU Edwardsville 89.9
340 Tennessee Tech 89.5
341 Maryland Eastern Shore 89.2
342 Southern 88.8
343 South Carolina St. 88.6
344 Florida A&M 88.5
345 Bryant 87.9
346 Stetson 87.4
347 Incarnate Word 87.2
348 Alcorn St. 86.5
349 Alabama A&M 84.6
350 Savannah St. 83.7
351 Coppin St. 83.5
352 Delaware St. 82.7
353 Chicago St. 82.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

# Team PiRate Rating Conf

1

VCU

106.4

A10

2 Dayton 106.2 A10
3 Davidson 105.6 A10
4 Rhode Island 104.4 A10
5 Saint Joseph’s 104.1 A10
6 Saint Louis 104.1 A10
7 Massachusetts 101.8 A10
8 St. Bonaventure 101.2 A10
9 Duquesne 100.1 A10
10 Richmond 100.0 A10
11 George Mason 99.7 A10
12 Fordham 98.3 A10
13 La Salle 97.3 A10
14 George Washington 94.1 A10
 

1

Duke

122.9

ACC

2 Virginia 117.8 ACC
3 Virginia Tech 115.9 ACC
4 Florida St. 113.4 ACC
5 Clemson 110.1 ACC
6 Syracuse 110.0 ACC
7 Notre Dame 108.3 ACC
8 North Carolina 107.8 ACC
9 North Carolina St. 106.6 ACC
10 Miami FL 105.0 ACC
11 Boston College 104.9 ACC
12 Georgia Tech 104.7 ACC
13 Louisville 103.5 ACC
14 Pittsburgh 101.9 ACC
15 Wake Forest 101.1 ACC
 

1

Vermont

104.0

AmEst

2 UMBC 101.5 AmEst
3 Stony Brook 99.6 AmEst
4 Maine 97.2 AmEst
5 Hartford 97.0 AmEst
6 Albany 93.9 AmEst
7 New Hampshire 91.7 AmEst
8 UMass Lowell 91.3 AmEst
9 Binghamton 90.5 AmEst
 

1

Cincinnati

112.0

AAC

2 Houston 110.3 AAC
3 UCF 109.5 AAC
4 Temple 107.0 AAC
5 Connecticut 105.7 AAC
6 SMU 105.5 AAC
7 Wichita St. 103.5 AAC
8 Tulsa 103.0 AAC
9 Memphis 99.7 AAC
10 South Florida 99.6 AAC
11 Tulane 94.7 AAC
12 East Carolina 94.2 AAC
 

1

Lipscomb

104.2

ASun

2 Liberty 103.7 ASun
3 North Florida 98.1 ASun
4 NJIT 97.7 ASun
5 Kennesaw St. 96.4 ASun
6 Florida Gulf Coast 96.0 ASun
7 Jacksonville 92.0 ASun
8 North Alabama 91.3 ASun
9 Stetson 87.4 ASun
 

1

Michigan St.

116.3

BTEN

2 Wisconsin 114.5 BTEN
3 Purdue 113.0 BTEN
4 Indiana 112.6 BTEN
5 Iowa 111.0 BTEN
6 Michigan 109.6 BTEN
7 Nebraska 107.8 BTEN
8 Northwestern 107.8 BTEN
9 Ohio St. 107.6 BTEN
10 Maryland 107.3 BTEN
11 Rutgers 104.6 BTEN
12 Penn St. 104.5 BTEN
13 Illinois 104.5 BTEN
14 Minnesota 102.6 BTEN
 

1

Texas Tech

115.2

B12

2 Iowa St. 113.7 B12
3 Kansas St. 113.2 B12
4 Oklahoma 112.6 B12
5 TCU 111.9 B12
6 Kansas 110.8 B12
7 Texas 109.6 B12
8 West Virginia 108.7 B12
9 Oklahoma St. 107.9 B12
10 Baylor 107.2 B12
 

1

Villanova

113.0

BEast

2 Butler 111.1 BEast
3 Creighton 110.4 BEast
4 St. John’s 109.0 BEast
5 Seton Hall 107.9 BEast
6 Providence 107.1 BEast
7 Xavier 106.3 BEast
8 Marquette 105.6 BEast
9 Georgetown 104.1 BEast
10 DePaul 104.1 BEast
 

1

Northern Colorado

106.7

BSky

2 Weber St. 99.8 BSky
3 Montana 99.3 BSky
4 Northern Arizona 97.2 BSky
5 Sacramento St. 96.5 BSky
6 Montana St. 96.5 BSky
7 Southern Utah 95.5 BSky
8 Idaho St. 94.9 BSky
9 Eastern Washington 94.3 BSky
10 Portland St. 93.8 BSky
11 Idaho 91.9 BSky
 

1

Radford

102.5

BSou

2 Gardner Webb 100.8 BSou
3 Winthrop 100.5 BSou
4 UNC Asheville 96.6 BSou
5 Hampton 96.4 BSou
6 High Point 95.8 BSou
7 Charleston Southern 95.7 BSou
8 Campbell 95.6 BSou
9 Presbyterian 95.0 BSou
10 Longwood 93.6 BSou
11 USC Upstate 90.1 BSou
 

1

UC Irvine

104.9

BWest

2 UCSB 101.6 BWest
3 Cal St. Fullerton 99.2 BWest
4 Hawaii 98.1 BWest
5 Long Beach St. 96.5 BWest
6 UC Davis 96.3 BWest
7 Cal St. Northridge 94.1 BWest
8 UC Riverside 92.9 BWest
9 Cal Poly 92.3 BWest
 

1

Hofstra

104.8

CAA

2 Charleston 104.0 CAA
3 Northeastern 103.8 CAA
4 UNC Wilmington 99.6 CAA
5 William & Mary 97.6 CAA
6 Delaware 96.4 CAA
7 Towson 95.0 CAA
8 Drexel 94.6 CAA
9 James Madison 94.4 CAA
10 Elon 91.5 CAA
 

1

Marshall

106.0

CUSA

2 Old Dominion 105.7 CUSA
3 Western Kentucky 104.4 CUSA
4 Middle Tennessee 102.6 CUSA
5 Southern Miss 101.7 CUSA
6 North Texas 100.0 CUSA
7 Louisiana Tech 99.9 CUSA
8 UAB 99.1 CUSA
9 UTSA 97.0 CUSA
10 FIU 96.8 CUSA
11 Florida Atlantic 96.1 CUSA
12 UTEP 96.1 CUSA
13 Charlotte 91.9 CUSA
14 Rice 91.7 CUSA
 

1

Wright St.

101.7

Horiz

2 Northern Kentucky 101.3 Horiz
3 Green Bay 99.4 Horiz
4 IUPUI 98.3 Horiz
5 Illinois Chicago 97.0 Horiz
6 Cleveland St. 95.5 Horiz
7 Milwaukee 95.4 Horiz
8 Detroit 93.7 Horiz
9 Oakland 92.5 Horiz
10 Youngstown St. 91.4 Horiz
 

1

Penn

105.9

Ivy

2 Yale 105.3 Ivy
3 Harvard 104.3 Ivy
4 Brown 100.7 Ivy
5 Princeton 98.6 Ivy
6 Dartmouth 97.5 Ivy
7 Columbia 96.9 Ivy
8 Cornell 95.7 Ivy
 

1

Rider

101.4

MAAC

2 Iona 97.5 MAAC
3 Canisius 97.0 MAAC
4 Fairfield 95.7 MAAC
5 Quinnipiac 95.1 MAAC
6 Niagara 94.7 MAAC
7 Monmouth 94.6 MAAC
8 Marist 94.4 MAAC
9 Siena 94.2 MAAC
10 Saint Peter’s 93.8 MAAC
11 Manhattan 90.1 MAAC
 

1

Buffalo

111.6

MAC

2 Toledo 107.1 MAC
3 Ball St. 105.6 MAC
4 Miami OH 104.1 MAC
5 Akron 104.0 MAC
6 Central Michigan 99.6 MAC
7 Ohio 98.6 MAC
8 Bowling Green 98.3 MAC
9 Eastern Michigan 97.7 MAC
10 Western Michigan 97.5 MAC
11 Kent St. 96.8 MAC
12 Northern Illinois 96.5 MAC
 

1

Norfolk St.

95.5

MEAC

2 Howard 93.0 MEAC
3 North Carolina Central 92.7 MEAC
4 Morgan St. 92.4 MEAC
5 Bethune Cookman 91.9 MEAC
6 North Carolina A&T 91.7 MEAC
7 Maryland Eastern Shore 89.2 MEAC
8 South Carolina St. 88.6 MEAC
9 Florida A&M 88.5 MEAC
10 Savannah St. 83.7 MEAC
11 Coppin St. 83.5 MEAC
12 Delaware St. 82.7 MEAC
 

1

Loyola Chicago

103.7

MVC

2 Southern Illinois 102.6 MVC
3 Drake 102.2 MVC
4 Indiana St. 101.0 MVC
5 Missouri St. 100.7 MVC
6 Bradley 99.8 MVC
7 Valparaiso 99.6 MVC
8 Illinois St. 99.4 MVC
9 Northern Iowa 98.1 MVC
10 Evansville 98.1 MVC
 

1

Nevada

115.2

MWC

2 Utah St. 109.0 MWC
3 Fresno St. 108.3 MWC
4 San Diego St. 106.3 MWC
5 New Mexico 105.3 MWC
6 Boise St. 102.3 MWC
7 UNLV 101.5 MWC
8 Colorado St. 96.1 MWC
9 Wyoming 95.0 MWC
10 Air Force 94.3 MWC
11 San Jose St. 90.0 MWC
 

1

LIU Brooklyn

100.4

NEC

2 St. Francis PA 97.0 NEC
3 Wagner 95.5 NEC
4 Fairleigh Dickinson 95.4 NEC
5 St. Francis NY 94.2 NEC
6 Robert Morris 94.1 NEC
7 Sacred Heart 94.0 NEC
8 Central Connecticut 93.8 NEC
9 Mount St. Mary’s 90.4 NEC
10 Bryant 87.9 NEC
 

1

Belmont

106.8

OVC

2 Austin Peay 102.2 OVC
3 Murray St. 100.6 OVC
4 Jacksonville St. 99.3 OVC
5 Eastern Kentucky 94.7 OVC
6 SEMO 94.0 OVC
7 Morehead St. 93.5 OVC
8 Tennessee St. 92.9 OVC
9 Eastern Illinois 92.8 OVC
10 UT-Martin 92.6 OVC
11 SIU Edwardsville 89.9 OVC
12 Tennessee Tech 89.5 OVC
 

1

Arizona St.

109.8

Pac12

2 Arizona 108.0 Pac12
3 Washington 107.7 Pac12
4 Oregon St. 106.8 Pac12
5 UCLA 106.7 Pac12
6 Colorado 106.2 Pac12
7 USC 105.6 Pac12
8 Stanford 103.4 Pac12
9 Oregon 102.6 Pac12
10 Utah 101.6 Pac12
11 Washington St. 99.8 Pac12
12 California 97.4 Pac12
 

1

Bucknell

101.6

Pat

2 Colgate 100.0 Pat
3 Holy Cross 99.9 Pat
4 Lehigh 99.7 Pat
5 Loyola MD 98.1 Pat
6 American 98.0 Pat
7 Boston University 97.5 Pat
8 Navy 97.2 Pat
9 Lafayette 95.9 Pat
10 Army 94.7 Pat
 

1

Louisiana

106.0

SBC

2 Georgia St. 104.1 SBC
3 Texas St. 102.8 SBC
4 Georgia Southern 102.4 SBC
5 Louisiana Monroe 100.9 SBC
6 Troy 99.7 SBC
7 Appalachian St. 99.0 SBC
8 Coastal Carolina 98.9 SBC
9 Little Rock 98.4 SBC
10 South Alabama 97.8 SBC
11 UT Arlington 94.8 SBC
12 Arkansas St. 93.7 SBC
 

1

Wofford

107.8

Socon

2 Furman 104.9 Socon
3 East Tennessee St. 104.3 Socon
4 Mercer 101.1 Socon
5 The Citadel 100.0 Socon
6 Samford 99.5 Socon
7 UNC Greensboro 98.5 Socon
8 Chattanooga 92.9 Socon
9 Western Carolina 91.9 Socon
10 VMI 90.7 Socon
 

1

Tennessee

115.0

SEC

2 Auburn 114.7 SEC
3 Florida 111.5 SEC
4 Mississippi St. 110.2 SEC
5 Kentucky 109.4 SEC
6 Alabama 107.4 SEC
7 Vanderbilt 107.3 SEC
8 Missouri 107.0 SEC
9 Texas A&M 106.6 SEC
10 Georgia 104.8 SEC
11 LSU 103.2 SEC
12 South Carolina 103.2 SEC
13 Arkansas 100.1 SEC
14 Mississippi 98.6 SEC
 

1

Abilene Christian

99.1

Southl

2 Stephen F. Austin 98.2 Southl
3 New Orleans 95.7 Southl
4 Lamar 94.7 Southl
5 Sam Houston St. 94.6 Southl
6 Nicholls St. 94.4 Southl
7 Northwestern St. 94.2 Southl
8 Central Arkansas 94.0 Southl
9 Houston Baptist 93.8 Southl
10 McNeese St. 93.1 Southl
11 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 92.5 Southl
12 Southeastern Louisiana 91.4 Southl
13 Incarnate Word 87.2 Southl
 

1

South Dakota St.

105.4

Sum

2 North Dakota St. 98.7 Sum
3 South Dakota 98.4 Sum
4 Purdue Fort Wayne 98.1 Sum
5 Omaha 98.0 Sum
6 Oral Roberts 97.0 Sum
7 Western Illinois 95.3 Sum
8 Denver 93.4 Sum
9 North Dakota 93.0 Sum
 

1

Arkansas Pine Bluff

96.7

SWAC

2 Texas Southern 96.4 SWAC
3 Mississippi Valley St. 94.5 SWAC
4 Prairie View A&M 94.4 SWAC
5 Grambling St. 94.0 SWAC
6 Jackson St. 92.2 SWAC
7 Alabama St. 90.0 SWAC
8 Southern 88.8 SWAC
9 Alcorn St. 86.5 SWAC
10 Alabama A&M 84.6 SWAC
 

1

New Mexico St.

104.3

WAC

2 Grand Canyon 102.8 WAC
3 Utah Valley 101.7 WAC
4 Seattle 100.6 WAC
5 Cal Baptist 96.5 WAC
6 Cal St. Bakersfield 95.5 WAC
7 UMKC 95.3 WAC
8 UT Rio Grande Valley 94.2 WAC
9 Chicago St. 82.3 WAC
 

1

Gonzaga

118.5

WCC

2 San Francisco 109.1 WCC
3 Saint Mary’s 109.1 WCC
4 BYU 106.4 WCC
5 Loyola Marymount 105.8 WCC
6 San Diego 105.5 WCC
7 Pacific 101.5 WCC
8 Pepperdine 100.6 WCC
9 Portland 97.7 WCC
10 Santa Clara 96.1 WCC

 

 

March 12, 2018

Selection Committee Got It Right–Only Because The Criteria Was Wrong

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee is under fire today for how teams like Oklahoma, Arizona State,  and Syracuse made the tournament, while teams like Saint Mary’s, Middle Tennessee State, and USC did not.

Don’t blame this Committee.  They did not create the criteria that they use to select the teams.  You wouldn’t blame a jury if the judge orders them not to consider the most convincing evidence in a trial, and it produces the opposite verdict.

We are hearing interesting rumors that Louisville and USC received punitive treatment due to the impending FBI probe, but we do not buy into this rumor.

The reality is that Oklahoma, Arizona State, and Syracuse are in the field, and USC, Saint Mary’s, and Middle Tennessee are not.

The PiRate Bracket Gurus correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams, missing on USC versus Syracuse.  They don’t want to make this sound like sour grapes here, and they are not responsible in the least for our comments, but we find it a laughing joke that the Trojans did not make the tournament, while Arizona State did make the tournament.

Again, it is not the Committee’s fault that the most convincing evidence that would show the superior team was not admissible in this case.  USC finished in 2nd place in the Pac-12, while Arizona State finished tied for 8th place, with only three teams below the Sun Devils in the standings.  USC bested ASU by four games in the conference standings!

How can a team finish 22.2% better in the majority part of an identical schedule than another team and see the weaker team make the tournament, while they did not?  This is why March Madness is more mad due to inferior selection criteria.

We repeat a comparison we made earlier this season.  Take the NFL Playoffs.  Let’s say that during the first month of the season, The New York Giants beat Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh and lead the NFC East at 4-0, while The Eagles are 2-2, with victories over Washington and Tampa Bay.

At this point in the season, the Giants are the best team in the NFL, while Philly is in the bottom half.  Now, from this point on, the Giants finish 5-7 for a 9-7 record.  The Eagles go 9-3 for an 11-5 record.

So, in the playoffs, the Giants are selected by the NFL Selection Committee due to their Quadrant 1 NFL wins in September, while the Eagles have to go to the Bert Bell Playoff Bowl in Miami (Google It–There really was a bowl game in the NFL).

If the NFL stages its playoffs this way, the league would be the laughingstock of sports.  The playoffs would be a big joke.  Yet, in college basketball, the public is brainwashed into believing that this giant tournament of mostly mediocrity is can’t miss entertainment.

The PiRates can easily miss seeing almost all these games where one or more of the combatants fared so poorly in the regular season that in decades past, their coaches might have been fired or put on a hot seat.

Allowing the 8th best team in a rather weak conference to have a chance to play for the national championship is par for the course in this everybody gets a trophy society.  When it comes down to it, neither USC nor Arizona State should have been invited to the NCAA Tournament.  Likewise, no team that did not win a conference championship should have been invited.  There are 32 conferences.  There should be 32 teams invited to the tournament, the 32 champions.

Before you say, “Hey Bucakroo, you cannot be serious about including Radford but not Duke,” let us preface that we favor just the 32 conference champions, but we also would favor handicapping the tournament so that the top 10 conference champions would receive byes to the Sweet 16, while the other 22 conference champions would have to compete in a play-in tournament to narrow from 22 to 12 to 6.  The 6 play-in winners would fill out the Sweet 16.

This is exactly how the NCAA Tournament used to be conducted.  Back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s, six to eight conference champions received automatic byes to the Sweet 16, while 14 to 18 other conference champions (and top Independents) were forced to play-in to the Sweet 16.  The bye conferences were determined by the past 5 years results in prior NCAA Tournaments.

Four plus decades ago, over half of the division 1 teams in the East were independents, playing in a loosely-knit organization called the ECAC (Eastern College Athletic Conference).  Prior to 1975, the ECAC was guaranteed two spots in the NCAA Tournament, while other Independents from the South, Midwest, and West could only be selected as at-large entries if and when the NCAA determined they were worthy.

Usually, 24 teams were selected for the NCAA Tournament.  There were eight teams that received byes and 16 teams that played into the Sweet 16.  On the third Saturday of March, the play-in games were played on neutral sites.  Then, on the following Thursday night (Friday night until 1968), the Sweet 16 Round was played, and the Elite 8 Round was played on Saturday.  There were regional consolation games to give each region four total games.

Then, the Final Four was played the following Thursday night with a consolation game and National Championship Game played on Saturday afternoon.  Starting in 1973, the Final Four moved to its present Saturday afternoon-Monday night format.

The explanation that the tournament became huge when it moved to 64 and then 68 teams is not actual fact.  The tournament was already big before it began to expand.  It would have continued to gain fan support if it had stayed exactly the same, and it is our opinion that it would be even bigger than it is today had it remained a tournament of conference champions.

With today’s format, a lot of really fantastic marquee games never happen.  The so-called media darling long shots that pull off a first round upset or sneak into the Sweet 16 eventually get blown out by a power conference team, giving the power conference team somewhat of a breather to the next round.  With 32 first round games, there are going to be a handful of upsets when a power team either overlooks the smaller school or comes out flat, while the other team plays the game of its lives.

The 1927 New York Yankees occasionally had an off day and lost to the Washington Senators (8 times that year).  They even lost a game to the St. Louis Browns.  There is always that odd day or night where things just don’t go the way they should 99% of the time.  It actually hurts the tournament when a #2 seed loses to a #15 seed, because the #15 seed isn’t going anywhere, while the #2 seed could have given the public a really incredible Elite 8 game against a #1 seed.

With that in mind, the PiRates have two separate ideas that would make the NCAA Basketball Tournament much better than it is now.  It would still give the Radford’s a real chance to compete for the title, and it would eliminate the ridiculous, human-error-laced, Selection Committee trying to create a reason why the 12-6 number two team from a power conference stays home, while the 8-10 number eight place (tied for 8th) team from that same conference makes the field.

Option A: Split Division 1 into D1 Large and D1 Small.  D1 Large would be the top 16 conferences, while D1 Small would be the bottom 16 conferences.

Conduct separate 16-team playoffs in the same manner that the NBA now uses.  4 rounds of best of 7 playoffs with the higher-ranked team getting home court advantage.  This option allows the home town fans a chance to see their team play on its home court, whereas only a handful of fans can afford to travel all over the map to watch them play in far away outposts.  How many Buffalo Bulls fans will make the trip to Boise, Idaho?

You could add a twist to the playoff formats and incorporate the relegation and promotion rules from soccer, where the conference of the Small Champion is promoted to Large, and the conference with the weakest-rated Large Champion being relegated to Small.

Imagine a Final Four with Arizona playing Kansas in a best of 7, and Virginia playing Michigan State in a best of 7.  What would the TV ratings be on these series rather than seeing a Sweet 16 game between one of these powers and a long shot low-major team that will lose by 20+ in the Sweet 16?  The two series would dwarf the ratings of today’s earlier rounds where teams are forced to play in the mornings and afternoons of weekdays.

Option B would be to revert back to how the tournament was conducted in the 1960’s and early 1970’s.  Take the 22 weakest conferences and send their champions to a 22 to 12 to 6 play-in.  Send the other 10 top conference champions expressly to the Sweet 16.

Sure, teams like North Carolina, Villanova, and Michigan would not be in the tournament, but then neither would be 8-10 Arizona State or 8-10 Syracuse.  Villanova, Michigan, Purdue, Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and USC among others would give the 16-team (like it was when it was great) NIT a great group of teams, so great that they could return to playing all 15 games at Madison Square Garden.

Most of you reading this today are wondering what our schedule will be for the NCAA Tournament.  Usually, today is the day we release our annual Bracketnomics report showing what back-tested data has been successful in isolating past NCAA Tournament winners.

The PiRates have made some sweeping changes this year, as advanced metrics have made our past bracket-picking criteria somewhat obsolete.  We still have our exceptional R+T weighted rating, and it still represents a huge chunk of what works for us, but we have dropped a lot of the other former data.  With advanced metrics like true shooting% and a better way to compare teams based on strength of schedule, we will be releasing an all-inclusive, somewhat explanatory reveal Tuesday afternoon.

March 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings’ Bracket Gurus’ Final Predictions For the Field of 68

That Darn Davidson
Call it the Steph Curry Effect. It would happen that the one bid-stealing team in the Conference Tournament part of March Madness would be a team from a conference that played its championship game on Selection Sunday afternoon.

 
At least the Selection Committee had to deal with this contingency as well. If our Bracket Gurus know their stuff, they believe that bubble burst popping sound you just heard emanated from Moraga, California, and Saint Mary’s just became a number one seed in the NIT.

What about the other near miss teams?  Our gurus believe (but not unanimously) the bubbles had already burst on Louisville, Middle Tennessee State, Syracuse, Marquette, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma St.

Now, with Davidson getting in with the automatic bid, some non-guru bracketologists might simple place the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament and remove A-10 member St. Bonaventure. It doesn’t work like that. All of our Gurus already locked the Bonnies into the field. Saint Mary’s had the bottom score of the 68 teams, and with the Gaels sulking as they prepare to host an NIT game (or if our Gurus miss), now the #68 team is Arizona St. The Sun Devils are not really affected by the upset in D.C., if our Gurus have it right. They were already headed to Dayton as one of the Last Four in.

The team other than Saint Mary’s that suffered from Davidson’s win is the former last team in with a bye. USC was the number 64 team on the seed line, but after Davidson removed Saint Mary’s from the 11-seed line, it knocked the Trojans down to the fourth weakest Guru score. Thus, the Trojans are picked to join Arizona State, St. Bonaventure, and Texas in First Four games in Dayton.

Our Gurus had a difficult time narrowing the field of 68 from a field of 71. Word leaked out of the Selection Committee early Sunday morning, that all but one at-large spot had been determined prior to any games this afternoon. Our Gurus took that as a slap across 14 faces. If the Committee had it down to 69, then they could too. Between 8AM and Noon Eastern Time today, the Gurus agreed to vote Louisville, Middle Tennessee St., Marquette, and Syracuse off the Madness Island. Pending the outcome of the Davidson-Rhode Island game, the Gurus had the teams selected. A couple of late games might have affected a couple of seeds, as Cincinnati and Tennessee could swap with a Volunteer win and Bearcat loss. Tennessee lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship, so Cincinnati should stay where they are, win or lose in the AAC Championship Game, which is about to tip off.
Since we are going to press before the American Athletic Conference Tournament ends, we told our Gurus to assume that Cincinnati wins the game and keeps their high seed.  There is a chance a Cinti loss could elevate another team from three to two seed, but we believe the Committee doesn’t want to mess with this contingency this late in the game.  We figured that time was more of the essence than waiting for the last game to finish.
So, with that in mind, here is the PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus’ Final Prediction. If we get 68 out of 68 again this year, it will be a minor miracle. It wasn’t easy for the Gurus to come close to a consensus. Middle Tennessee, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, and Baylor all received at least one vote out of 14 Guru lists. Saint Mary’s, Arizona St., and Texas were left off at least 3 of the 14 ballots.

 

Seed Team Conference
1 Virginia ACC
1 Villanova B-EAST
1 Xavier B-EAST
1 Kansas B12
2 Duke ACC
2 Purdue B-TEN
2 North Carolina ACC
2 Cincinnati AAC
3 Michigan St. B-TEN
3 Tennessee SEC
3 Michigan B-TEN
3 Auburn SEC
4 West Virginia B12
4 Arizona PAC-12
4 Texas Tech B12
4 Wichita St. AAC
5 Clemson ACC
5 Gonzaga WCC
5 Kentucky SEC
5 Ohio St. B-TEN
6 Houston AAC
6 Florida SEC
6 Miami (Fla.) ACC
6 Arkansas SEC
7 Texas A&M SEC
7 TCU B12
7 Rhode Island A-10
7 Seton Hall B-EAST
8 Nevada MWC
8 Virginia Tech ACC
8 Missouri SEC
8 Providence B-EAST
9 Alabama SEC
9 Butler B-EAST
9 Florida St. ACC
9 Creighton B-EAST
10 North Carolina St. ACC
10 Kansas St. B12
10 UCLA PAC-12
10 Oklahoma B12
11 USC PAC-12
11 Texas B12
11 St. Bonaventure A-10
11 Arizona St. PAC-12
11 Loyola (Chi.) MVC
11 San Diego St. MWC
12 New Mexico St. WAC
12 South Dakota St. SUMMIT
12 Buffalo MAC
12 Davidson A-10
13 Murray St. OVC
13 UNC-Greensboro SOCON
13 Marshall CUSA
13 Charleston CAA
14 Bucknell PATRIOT
14 Montana B-SKY
14 Wright St. HORIZON
14 Georgia St./UT-Arlington SBC
15 Stephen F. Austin SLC
15 Lipscomb A-SUN
15 Iona MAAC
15 Penn IVY
16 MD-Baltimore Co. A-EAST
16 Cal St. Fullerton B-WEST
16 Long Island NEC
16 Radford B-SOUTH
16 UNC-Central MEAC
16 Texas Southern SWAC

Our Gurus’ Additional Picks

First Four Round in Dayton

11-seed line: Texas vs. Arizona St.

11-seed line: USC vs. St. Bonaventure

16-seed line: Long Island vs. Texas Southern

16-seed line: Radford vs. UNC-Central

 

Last 4 Byes

61. North Carolina St.

62. Kansas St.

63. UCLA

64. Oklahoma

 

First Four Out

69. Saint Mary’s

70. Middle Tennessee St.

71. Louisville

72. Syracuse

March 10, 2018

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Late Night Update–March 10-11 , 2018

The Bracket Gurus are burning the midnight oil and pouring more coffee as they try to determine who the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee will invite into the Dance, and who will not hear the phone ring on Sunday.

At this point last year, most of the gurus were 100% in agreement on about 66 teams with only three teams really fighting for the final two spots.

There is a bit more dissension this season.  There are six teams seriously in the final discussion for three spots, but this will all change is Davidson beats Rhode Island on Sunday.  The Gurus are 100% in agreement in their belief that St. Bonaventure is in, so the Atlantic 10 could move from two to three teams if the Wildcats upset the Rams.

The teams that need to be worried about Davidson winning include Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Saint Mary’s, Louisville, and Middle Tennessee State.  The Gurus are close to eliminating Marquette, Baylor, and Syracuse, but these teams still appear on exactly one Guru list (three different Gurus have one each of the three).

Check back tomorrow after the conclusion of the Atlantic 10 Championship Game.  Within about 30 minutes of the outcome, we will publish our final Bracket Gurus report in full.  The pressure is on our Gurus.  Last year, they correctly picked all 68 teams in the field, and also correctly picked 61 teams on the correct seed line or just one seed off.

Teams In The Field as of Saturday Night, 11:59 PM EST

Team Bid Conf. W-L
Bucknell AUTO Patriot 25-9
Buffalo AUTO MAC 26-8
Charleston AUTO CAA 26-7
Gonzaga AUTO WCC 30-4
Iona AUTO MAAC 20-13
Kansas AUTO B12 27-7
Lipscomb AUTO A-SUN 23-9
Long Island AUTO NEC 18-16
Loyola (Chi.) AUTO MVC 28-5
Marshall AUTO CUSA 24-10
MD-Baltimore Co. AUTO AE 24-10
Michigan AUTO BTen 28-7
Montana AUTO BSky 26-7
Murray St. AUTO OVC 26-5
New Mexico St. AUTO WAC 28-5
Radford AUTO B-South 22-12
San Diego St. AUTO MWC 22-10
South Dakota St. AUTO Summit 28-6
Stephen F. Austin AUTO SLC 28-6
Texas Southern AUTO SWAC 15-19
UNC-Central AUTO MEAC 19-15
UNC-Greensboro AUTO SoCon 27-7
Villanova AUTO BE 30-4
Virginia AUTO ACC 31-2
Wright St. AUTO Horizon 25-9

March 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for March 5, 2018

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:32 am

The Bracket Gurus are doing double duty this week having to keep up with the conference tournaments every day as well as the bracketology.

The Gurus are starting to come to a consensus, as there were only 72 teams that received votes this week, meaning we only have a Top 4 out and not Next 4, since our geniuses feel there are no other teams that as of now have any shot at receiving an at-large invitation.

Consider this: as of today, there have been no teams that have gone from out to in based on their showing in their conference tournaments.  Nebraska failed to show up in the Big Ten Conference Tournament, while Penn State fell one round short of mattering.

Of course, except for the Big Ten Conference, all the power leagues that could possibly produce a team that might win enough to move into consideration have yet to begin conference tournament play.  There are a few teams remaining that still have remote at-large life.  These are:

ACC: Syracuse and Louisville

Big East: Marquette

Big 12: Oklahoma St.

Mountain West: Boise St.

Pac-12: Utah and Washington

SEC: LSU, Georgia, and Mississippi St.

There is the opposite to this discussion.  There are a host of teams that if they lose on the first day or even second day of their tournament, they could fall from in to out.  Another factor that could push these teams out is if upset winners claim automatic bids.  These are the teams that are hanging on by a thread at the current time.

Big 12: Baylor, Kansas St., and Texas

Big East: Providence

Pac-12: USC, Arizona St., and UCLA

SEC: Alabama

West Coast: Saint Mary’s

Which dark horse teams could make a run to an upset championship in each power conference?  (Does not include teams currently on the Bubble)

American: Tulsa

Atlantic 10: Davidson

ACC: Notre Dame

Big 12: None, because all that’s left is Iowa St. and we do not see the Cyclones winning.

Big East: St. John’s

Pac-12: Stanford

SEC: South Carolina

West Coast: BYU

Here are the seeds as our Bracket Gurus predict.  Teams in RED have clinched an automatic bid.

Seed Team Conference
1 Virginia ACC
1 Villanova B-EAST
1 Xavier B-EAST
1 Kansas B12
2 Duke ACC
2 Purdue B-TEN
2 Michigan St. B-TEN
2 Auburn SEC
3 North Carolina ACC
3 Cincinnati AAC
3 Tennessee SEC
3 Texas Tech B12
4 Wichita St. AAC
4 Michigan B-TEN
4 West Virginia B12
4 Arizona PAC-12
5 Clemson ACC
5 Gonzaga WCC
5 Ohio St. B-TEN
5 Kentucky SEC
6 Florida SEC
6 Houston AAC
6 Texas A&M SEC
6 TCU B12
7 Miami (Fla.) ACC
7 Arkansas SEC
7 Seton Hall B-EAST
7 Nevada MWC
8 Rhode Island A-10
8 Virginia Tech ACC
8 Missouri SEC
8 Oklahoma B12
9 Creighton B-EAST
9 Florida St. ACC
9 North Carolina St. ACC
9 Butler B-EAST
10 St. Bonaventure A-10
10 UCLA PAC-12
10 Middle Tennessee CUSA
10 Texas B12
11 Arizona St. PAC-12
11 Saint Mary’s WCC
11 Providence B-EAST
11 USC PAC-12
11 Alabama SEC
12 New Mexico St. WAC
12 Buffalo MAC
12 Murray St. OVC
12 Kansas St. B12
12 Baylor B12
13 UL-Lafayette SBC
13 South Dakota St. SUMMIT
13 Vermont A-EAST
13 Charleston CAA
14 UNC-Greensboro SOCON
14 Bucknell PATRIOT
14 Loyola (Chi.) MVC
14 Montana B-SKY
15 UC Davis B-WEST
15 Wright St. HORIZON
15 Wagner NEC
15 Lipscomb A-SUN
16 Penn IVY
16 Iona MAAC
16 Radford B-SOUTH
16 Hampton MEAC
16 Nicholls St. SLC
16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff SWAC

The First Four in Dayton

USC vs. Baylor

Alabama vs. Kansas St.

Radford vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff

Hampton vs. Nicholls St.

 

Top 4 Out 

Marquette B-EAST
Syracuse ACC
Louisville ACC
Utah PAC-12

Multiple Bid Leagues

Conference #
ACC 8
Big 12 8
SEC 8
Big East 6
Big Ten 4
Pac-12 4
American 3
Atlantic 10 2
West Coast 2

There are currently 23, one-bid leagues.

 

 

 

September 11, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 14-16, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:54 am

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

PiRate Ratings Spreads
September 14-16        
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Boise St. New Mexico 12.9 10.4 11.8
Temple Massachusetts 14.2 15.6 14.5
South Florida Illinois 20.5 17.3 22.9
UTEP Arizona -23.3 -17.6 -20.1
South Carolina Kentucky 0.5 1.2 0.2
Marshall Kent St. 4.6 4.9 4.7
Boston College Notre Dame -8.1 -5.1 -8.8
Virginia Connecticut 16.2 13.0 17.0
Michigan Air Force 26.8 25.4 25.7
UAB Coastal Carolina -8.3 -3.8 -8.0
Miami (O) Cincinnati 4.5 4.3 5.2
Penn St. Georgia St. 45.2 43.7 46.0
Akron Iowa St. -15.1 -12.3 -15.7
Old Dominion North Carolina -16.3 -12.1 -14.3
Pittsburgh Oklahoma St. -9.8 -8.6 -12.3
Minnesota Middle Tennessee 17.5 17.2 16.2
Indiana Florida Int’l. 26.8 26.6 26.2
Memphis UCLA -2.3 -2.3 -1.4
Nebraska Northern Illinois 20.7 22.3 19.7
Duke Baylor 13.2 9.2 11.7
Ohio U Kansas 4.0 2.8 5.7
Wake Forest Utah St. 21.0 21.4 21.2
Louisville Clemson -8.2 -5.5 -7.1
Syracuse Central Michigan 18.3 16.3 17.0
East Carolina Virginia Tech -28.3 -26.4 -28.7
BYU Wisconsin -17.3 -14.4 -15.1
Missouri Purdue 7.8 2.8 5.7
Iowa North Texas 33.3 31.3 33.0
Texas A&M UL-Lafayette 23.9 19.9 22.7
Northwestern Bowling Green 31.2 28.8 30.2
Oklahoma Tulane 36.1 33.4 36.6
Florida Tennessee 6.4 7.7 7.5
TCU SMU 19.0 16.1 18.6
Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech 11.5 7.8 12.1
Ohio St. Army 36.2 33.7 34.5
Washington St. Oregon St. 27.0 24.1 27.6
Texas St. Appalachian St. -25.8 -19.6 -27.4
Alabama Colorado St. 32.1 28.7 31.2
Toledo Tulsa -0.4 0.4 1.3
Western Michigan Idaho 21.4 15.8 22.0
UL-Monroe Southern Miss. -2.8 -3.9 -4.3
Wyoming Oregon -9.5 -8.6 -9.7
Mississippi St. LSU -10.3 -7.9 -10.6
Central Florida Georgia Tech -7.5 -2.9 -4.6
Vanderbilt Kansas St. -1.6 -3.0 -3.2
Houston Rice 26.1 23.8 25.2
New Mexico St. Troy -3.5 -6.3 -3.4
Texas Tech Arizona St. 5.3 4.6 5.0
USC Texas 13.0 11.3 13.2
Utah San Jose St. 23.9 27.2 24.9
Washington Fresno St. 43.8 41.5 44.5
California Ole Miss -4.0 -5.2 -4.3
San Diego St. Stanford -15.0 -12.1 -12.8
This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
Auburn Mercer 40
Georgia Samford 26
UTSA Southern 24
West Virginia Delaware St. 55
North Carolina St. Furman 31
Colorado Northern Colorado 39
Ball St. Tennessee Tech 20
Rutgers Morgan St. 36
Charlotte N.C. A&T -2
Buffalo Colgate 7
Nevada Idaho St. 25
Arkansas St. Ark.-Pine Bluff 51
South Alabama Alabama A&M 28
Florida Atlantic Bethune-Cookman 15

The Big 12 Arises Like The Phoenix
A week after Texas and Baylor suffered devastating losses, the Big 12 returned from the dead with some major victories. Oklahoma went to the Giant Horseshoe and toyed with Ohio State for most of the evening. The Sooners looked about as effective on offense as they looked back in 2008, when they had Sam Bradford, Chris Brown, Demarco Murray, Juaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham. But, it was the defense that really looked dominant. Oklahoma’s effort Saturday night reminded us more of their 2001 team that featured Tommie Harris, Rocky Calmus, Derrick Strait, and Roy Williams.

TCU’s defense totally shut down Arkansas in the Horned Frogs win at Fayetteville. TCU’s defense held Arkansas to 13 first downs and 267 total yards; more importantly, they held them to just 7 points.

Oklahoma State won on the road at South Alabama, which doesn’t sound like a big deal, but the Jaguars have a history of sneaking up on Power 5 conference teams.

Baylor lost once again, and Iowa State just missed against Iowa, while Texas played much better in their drubbing of San Jose St. The Longhorns get a chance to redeem themselves for the Maryland debacle when they venture to the LA Coliseum to take on USC this week. If UT keeps this game close, then watch out for the ‘Horns in Big 12 Conference play. It is a transition process into Coach Tom Herman’s offense, but Herman’s teams find a way to win, and Texas will win more than they did last year.

ACC Tilt Highlights Top Games This Week
Following Clemson’s defensive gem against Auburn, the Tigers must now face the reigning Heisman Trophy winner on his turf. Clemson’s game at Louisville tops this week’s schedule. Louisville has the horses to do to CU what they did to Florida State last year, but we believe Coach Dabo Swinney will come up with another brilliant game plan to slow down the Cardinal attack. The issue is whether the Clemson offense has enough to get to about 27 points, because even when you slow down the ‘Ville, you might still give up 24 points.

Clemson’s big rival has a big game this week. South Carolina hosts Kentucky. USC already owns a conference win and can take a major step forward toward competing with Georgia for the East Division flag. Kentucky has not looked up to the standards we thought they had the potential to be, performing so-so in wins over Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky.

Florida hosts Tennessee in the Swamp, and the Gators got a week off after their no-show event against Michigan. Meanwhile, Tennessee is playing its third game in 12 days and has suffered a couple of injury losses. The Vols’ offense has been at the extremes. On one drive, they look like Louisville, and on the next drive they look like a college version of the New York Jets or San Francisco 49ers. Florida was very consistent offensively against Michigan–they looked like the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on every drive against the Wolverines. Expect the Gators to play near their maximum capacity in this game. They cannot start 0-2 with a now 11-game schedule and have much chance to recover to much more than 7-4 and possibly just 6-5. A Tennessee win puts the Big Orange into the contender category in the mediocre East Division.

LSU travels north to take on an under-the-radar Mississippi State team that has circled this game on their schedule since Spring Ball. Miss State has just one win over the Tigers in the 16 games in this century, and that one win came at Baton Rouge. The last time the Bulldogs bested their Bayou Rivals in Starkville was 1999. The winner of this game has to be taken seriously as a top contender to Alabama.

Kansas State looks to prove that it belongs in the discussion in the Big 12, and the Wildcats have a tough game at Vanderbilt this week. The Commodores looked similar to Stanford and Michigan in their opening two wins, but to beat a top 15 team is a lot different than beating Middle Tennessee and Alabama A&M. This game actually features the top two passing offenses in Raw QB Ratings, as Kyle Shurmur has Vandy at #1, while Jesse Ertz has Kansas State at #2. This looks to be the best Kansas State offense since the great 1998 team almost made it to the National Championship Game.

The previously mentioned Texas-USC game should be interesting, but the Trojans should eventually win this one by two touchdowns or more. However, if the Longhorns can control the clock offensively, their questionable defense can hold on long enough to make this game close enough to be undecided until the fourth quarter.

The late game on the Coast has Stanford playing at San Diego State. If the Aztecs are to challenge for the Group of 5’s top spot and the New Year’s 6 Bowl, they must win this game. Stanford will be a tough out for the hometown team, but Rocky Long has SDSU looking like a team capable of running the table if they get past the Cardinal.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
This happens frequently in September. A top team is upset by another team, but the top team still rates ahead of the team that beat them. That’s the liability of predictive ratings, and the strength of retrodictive ratings. We have three predictive ratings–the regular PiRate, the PiRate Mean, and the PiRate Bias. We also have one set of PiRate Retrodictive Ratings.

If you need a primer, predictive ratings take what the teams have done so far and tries to predict what they will do next week. So, if State U has a predictive rating of 113.5 and plays Tech with a rating of 110.2, then before home field advantage (and road team disadvantage) are factored in, State is expected to beat Tech by 3.3 points. Let’s say the game is at State, and our special Pirate formula shows State to have a 3.2 point home field advantage for this game. It would then be quite easy to see that State should beat teach by 6.5 points.

Our retrodictive rating does not try to predict the outcomes of the next week’s slate of games. It is only concerned with what the teams have done. If State and Tech were to have the same Retro Ratings as their predictive ratings, this would not indicate that State should win by 6.5 points. It only means that to date, State has been about 3.3 points better in their results than Tech has been (no home field advantage used because this rating does not predict outcomes).

Why are we bringing this up? Simple. Ohio State is still number two in our predictive ratings. Oklahoma is behind the Buckeyes. In our Retrodictive Ratings, Ohio State fell quite a bit, just like Florida State did after losing to Alabama.

How can our predictive ratings show Ohio State to still be number two? It is a case of methodology. Our updates to our Predictive Ratings are rather conservative, with the Mean Rating being the most conservative, and the Bias being the least conservative, but still conservative. Remember, our predictive ratings are only looking forward and not backward. It is easier to think in terms of a major upset, like when Ole Miss beat Alabama two consecutive seasons. These two wins did not jump Ole Miss over the Tide. In a similar manner, when LSU beat Alabama during the regular season in 2011, Alabama stayed ahead of LSU in the ratings. When they met again in the National Championship Game, Alabama was the favorite, and they won 21-0.

We will lead with our Retrodictive Ratings First–We have put the rating numbers in this week to show you the difference between these ratings and the Predictive Ratings.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Retro
1 Alabama 127.2
2 Clemson 125.8
3 Washington 124.9
4 Oklahoma 124.6
5 USC 124.1
6 Penn St. 123.8
7 LSU 122.3
8 Ohio St. 120.8
9 Oklahoma St. 120.4
10 Wisconsin 118.8
11 Michigan 118.6
12 Miami (Fla) 116.6
13 Louisville 116.5
14 Florida St. 116.4
15 Auburn 115.9
16 Virginia Tech 115.6
17 Stanford 114.5
18 Kansas St. 114.0
19 Georgia 113.9
20 Tennessee 113.1
21 TCU 112.7
22 Washington St. 112.4
23 Utah 112.2
24 Iowa 111.9
25 Colorado 111.8
26 Florida 111.5
27 Houston 111.3
28 Mississippi St. 110.8
29 South Florida 110.3
30 San Diego St. 110.0
31 Georgia Tech 109.5
32 South Carolina 109.3
33 UCLA 109.1
34 Oregon 108.9
35 Notre Dame 108.8
36 Vanderbilt 108.6
37 West Virginia 108.3
38 Minnesota 108.0
39 Boise St. 107.7
40 Michigan St. 107.0
41 Pittsburgh 106.7
42 Toledo 106.1
43 Texas A&M 104.8
44 Wake Forest 104.3
45 Nebraska 104.0
46 Maryland 103.8
47 Duke 103.7
48 Kentucky 103.7
49 North Carolina St. 103.1
50 Memphis 103.0
51 Northwestern 101.8
52 Navy 101.6
53 Ole Miss 101.5
54 California 101.3
55 Tulsa 101.1
56 Texas 101.0
57 Arkansas 100.7
58 Air Force 100.5
59 Western Michigan 100.1
60 Colorado St. 100.0
61 Texas Tech 99.8
62 BYU 99.3
63 Appalachian St. 98.7
64 North Carolina 98.4
65 Army 98.1
66 SMU 97.9
67 Central Florida 97.7
68 Temple 97.5
69 Boston College 97.3
70 Indiana 97.1
71 Old Dominion 96.8
72 Western Kentucky 96.7
73 Troy 96.5
74 Arkansas St. 96.4
75 UTSA 96.2
76 Iowa St. 96.0
77 Purdue 95.9
78 Wyoming 95.7
79 Louisiana Tech 95.4
80 Illinois 95.3
81 Missouri 95.2
82 Eastern Michigan 95.0
83 Central Michigan 94.8
84 Arizona St. 94.4
85 Arizona 94.2
86 Middle Tennessee 94.0
87 Northern Illinois 93.8
88 Ohio 93.6
89 Syracuse 93.5
90 Tulane 93.5
91 Baylor 93.3
92 Southern Miss. 93.2
93 Oregon St. 93.1
94 New Mexico 92.9
95 Hawaii 92.7
96 Utah St. 92.2
97 Idaho 91.5
98 Cincinnati 91.2
99 Miami (O) 91.1
100 Virginia 90.9
101 UL-Lafayette 90.7
102 Coastal Carolina 90.0
103 Akron 89.6
104 Marshall 89.6
105 Nevada 89.3
106 New Mexico St. 88.8
107 Rutgers 88.5
108 Ball St. 88.3
109 South Alabama 88.0
110 Fresno St. 87.9
111 Georgia Southern 87.4
112 North Texas 87.1
113 Connecticut 86.6
114 UL-Monroe 86.3
115 San Jose St. 86.1
116 Kent St. 85.9
117 Kansas 85.5
118 Rice 85.2
119 Buffalo 84.9
120 UNLV 84.4
121 East Carolina 83.7
122 Georgia St. 83.6
123 Florida Int’l. 83.4
124 Bowling Green 83.0
125 Florida Atlantic 82.6
126 UTEP 82.1
127 UAB 80.5
128 Texas St. 79.1
129 Charlotte 77.5
130 Massachusetts 75.3

Our Regular Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.0 128.2 132.0 131.1
2 Ohio St. 129.4 126.6 128.7 128.2
3 Washington 128.9 125.3 129.7 128.0
4 Clemson 128.9 125.1 128.1 127.4
5 Oklahoma 127.7 125.4 128.6 127.2
6 Florida St. 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
7 Penn St. 126.2 124.0 126.9 125.7
8 Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.8 123.2
9 U S C 122.0 121.3 122.3 121.9
10 Oklahoma St. 121.6 120.3 123.2 121.7
11 L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
12 Wisconsin 121.1 117.2 119.4 119.3
13 Stanford 118.8 116.7 117.9 117.8
14 Miami 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
15 Louisville 117.7 116.6 118.0 117.4
16 Georgia 116.7 117.9 116.8 117.1
17 Michigan 117.1 116.4 116.3 116.6
18 Virginia Tech 116.2 115.8 116.6 116.2
19 Washington St. 116.8 114.0 115.9 115.6
20 Florida 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
21 Kansas St. 114.8 114.5 115.3 114.9
22 T C U 114.8 112.1 114.7 113.8
23 N. Carolina St. 113.4 113.1 113.1 113.2
24 Texas 112.0 113.0 112.0 112.4
25 Colorado 113.7 111.7 111.5 112.3
26 Georgia Tech 113.1 110.6 111.1 111.6
27 Iowa 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
28 Tennessee 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
29 Kentucky 111.3 109.8 110.8 110.6
30 Notre Dame 111.2 109.3 111.3 110.6
31 Oregon 111.1 107.9 110.2 109.7
32 U C L A 110.2 109.2 109.7 109.7
33 West Virginia 109.1 109.9 109.1 109.4
34 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
35 South Florida 109.5 107.7 110.7 109.3
36 Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.3 108.7
37 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.7 108.0 108.5
38 Duke 109.5 108.1 107.9 108.5
39 N. Carolina 109.4 108.1 107.9 108.5
40 S. Carolina 108.8 108.0 108.0 108.3
41 Minnesota 108.0 108.0 107.5 107.8
42 Mississippi St. 107.0 107.6 107.4 107.3
43 Arkansas 106.7 106.2 106.5 106.5
44 Ole Miss 107.4 106.0 105.8 106.4
45 Utah 105.4 107.9 105.7 106.3
46 Maryland 105.6 107.7 105.7 106.3
47 Syracuse 106.7 105.1 105.8 105.9
48 Indiana 105.0 105.1 105.4 105.2
49 Memphis 104.9 103.9 105.3 104.7
50 Wake Forest 105.1 104.4 104.5 104.6
51 Nebraska 104.1 105.7 103.3 104.4
52 Texas A&M 105.1 102.7 103.7 103.8
53 Houston 104.2 103.0 103.8 103.7
54 Central Florida 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
55 Colo. State 103.9 102.5 103.8 103.4
56 Tulsa 102.8 102.1 102.8 102.6
57 Iowa State 101.7 102.8 102.4 102.3
58 Texas Tech 102.8 102.5 101.6 102.3
59 San Diego St. 100.9 101.5 102.1 101.5
60 Missouri 102.6 99.7 101.3 101.2
61 Boise St. 101.6 99.4 101.0 100.7
62 BYU 100.9 99.8 101.3 100.6
63 Virginia 99.9 99.9 101.3 100.4
64 Arizona St. 100.5 100.9 99.6 100.3
65 Boston College 100.1 101.2 99.5 100.3
66 Baylor 99.3 101.9 99.2 100.1
67 Michigan St. 98.6 102.0 99.5 100.0
68 Toledo 99.4 99.5 101.2 100.0
69 Western Michigan 100.4 97.7 101.8 100.0
70 Navy 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
71 Appalachian St. 99.7 96.9 100.2 98.9
72 Purdue 97.8 99.9 98.6 98.8
73 California 99.9 97.3 97.9 98.4
74 Arizona 98.7 97.5 96.6 97.6
75 Wyoming 98.7 96.3 97.5 97.5
76 SMU 97.2 97.5 97.6 97.4
77 Army 96.3 95.9 97.2 96.5
78 Rutgers 95.9 95.9 95.4 95.7
79 W. Kentucky 95.7 93.9 97.1 95.6
80 Temple 95.0 95.7 95.1 95.3
81 U T S A 93.9 95.6 96.1 95.2
82 Tulane 94.6 95.0 95.0 94.9
83 Eastern Michigan 94.6 94.2 94.5 94.4
84 Miami (O) 92.9 95.3 95.1 94.4
85 Middle Tennessee 93.5 93.8 94.3 93.9
86 Air Force 93.3 94.0 93.6 93.6
87 Troy 93.7 93.9 92.9 93.5
88 Oregon St. 92.8 92.9 91.3 92.3
89 Illinois 92.0 93.4 90.8 92.1
90 New Mexico 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.0
91 Old Dominion 90.6 93.5 91.1 91.7
92 Central Michigan 91.4 91.8 91.8 91.7
93 Cincinnati 89.9 92.4 91.4 91.2
94 Arkansas St. 89.5 91.1 91.2 90.6
95 Ohio U 89.5 91.4 90.4 90.4
96 Kansas 88.4 91.6 87.7 89.3
97 Hawaii 88.6 90.2 88.6 89.1
98 U N L V 87.5 90.4 87.9 88.6
99 Louisiana Tech 87.2 89.1 87.9 88.1
100 Connecticut 86.7 89.9 87.3 88.0
101 Fresno St. 88.1 86.7 88.2 87.7
102 Southern Miss. 87.1 88.5 87.2 87.6
103 Nevada 85.3 88.4 87.3 87.0
104 Utah St. 87.6 86.5 86.8 87.0
105 Northern Illinois 86.4 86.4 86.6 86.4
106 N. Mexico St. 87.1 84.6 86.6 86.1
107 East Carolina 84.9 86.4 84.8 85.4
108 Marshall 84.5 85.9 85.6 85.4
109 Akron 83.7 87.5 83.7 85.0
110 UL-Lafayette 84.2 85.8 84.0 84.7
111 Florida Atlantic 83.1 86.4 84.2 84.6
112 S. Alabama 83.5 86.4 83.7 84.5
113 Georgia St. 84.5 83.7 84.4 84.2
114 Buffalo 82.5 85.2 84.5 84.1
115 San Jose St. 84.5 83.7 83.8 84.0
116 Kent St. 82.9 84.1 83.9 83.6
117 Idaho 82.0 85.0 82.8 83.2
118 Massachusetts 83.4 82.6 83.1 83.0
119 N. Texas 81.3 82.9 81.2 81.8
120 Bowling Green 81.2 81.8 82.1 81.7
121 Florida Int’l. 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
122 UL-Monroe 81.8 82.1 80.3 81.4
123 Ball St. 79.0 81.4 80.6 80.3
124 Georgia Southern 79.9 81.2 79.5 80.2
125 Rice 79.6 80.7 80.1 80.1
126 Coastal Carolina 74.8 75.7 76.6 75.7
127 Charlotte 74.5 77.1 74.9 75.5
128 U T E P 72.9 77.3 74.0 74.8
129 Texas St. 71.5 74.8 70.3 72.2
130 UAB 64.1 69.3 66.1 66.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 0-0 2-0 109.5 107.7 110.7 109.3
Central Florida 0-0 1-0 102.6 104.7 103.5 103.6
Temple 0-0 1-1 95.0 95.7 95.1 95.3
Cincinnati 0-0 1-1 89.9 92.4 91.4 91.2
Connecticut 0-0 1-0 86.7 89.9 87.3 88.0
East Carolina 0-0 0-2 84.9 86.4 84.8 85.4
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 1-0 104.9 103.9 105.3 104.7
Houston 0-0 1-0 104.2 103.0 103.8 103.7
Tulsa 0-0 1-1 102.8 102.1 102.8 102.6
Navy 1-0 2-0 99.0 100.0 98.9 99.3
SMU 0-0 2-0 97.2 97.5 97.6 97.4
Tulane 0-1 1-1 94.6 95.0 95.0 94.9
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.2 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 0-0 2-0 128.9 125.1 128.1 127.4
Florida St. 0-0 0-1 126.9 124.9 126.2 126.0
Louisville 1-0 2-0 117.7 116.6 118.0 117.4
N. Carolina St. 0-0 1-1 113.4 113.1 113.1 113.2
Syracuse 0-0 1-1 106.7 105.1 105.8 105.9
Wake Forest 1-0 2-0 105.1 104.4 104.5 104.6
Boston College 0-1 1-1 100.1 101.2 99.5 100.3
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 0-0 1-0 118.7 116.3 117.8 117.6
Virginia Tech 0-0 2-0 116.2 115.8 116.6 116.2
Georgia Tech 0-0 1-1 113.1 110.6 111.1 111.6
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-1 108.8 108.7 108.0 108.5
Duke 0-0 2-0 109.5 108.1 107.9 108.5
N. Carolina 0-1 0-2 109.4 108.1 107.9 108.5
Virginia 0-0 1-1 99.9 99.9 101.3 100.4
             
ACC Averages     112.5 111.3 111.8 111.9
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 0-0 2-0 127.7 125.4 128.6 127.2
Oklahoma St. 0-0 2-0 121.6 120.3 123.2 121.7
Kansas St. 0-0 2-0 114.8 114.5 115.3 114.9
T C U 0-0 2-0 114.8 112.1 114.7 113.8
Texas 0-0 1-1 112.0 113.0 112.0 112.4
West Virginia 0-0 1-1 109.1 109.9 109.1 109.4
Iowa State 0-0 1-1 101.7 102.8 102.4 102.3
Texas Tech 0-0 1-0 102.8 102.5 101.6 102.3
Baylor 0-0 0-2 99.3 101.9 99.2 100.1
Kansas 0-0 1-1 88.4 91.6 87.7 89.3
             
Big 12 Averages     109.2 109.4 109.4 109.3
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 1-0 1-1 129.4 126.6 128.7 128.2
Penn St. 0-0 2-0 126.2 124.0 126.9 125.7
Michigan 0-0 2-0 117.1 116.4 116.3 116.6
Maryland 0-0 2-0 105.6 107.7 105.7 106.3
Indiana 0-1 1-1 105.0 105.1 105.4 105.2
Michigan St. 0-0 2-0 98.6 102.0 99.5 100.0
Rutgers 0-0 0-2 95.9 95.9 95.4 95.7
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 0-0 2-0 121.1 117.2 119.4 119.3
Iowa 0-0 2-0 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
Northwestern 0-0 1-1 109.4 107.5 109.3 108.7
Minnesota 0-0 2-0 108.0 108.0 107.5 107.8
Nebraska 0-0 1-1 104.1 105.7 103.3 104.4
Purdue 0-0 1-1 97.8 99.9 98.6 98.8
Illinois 0-0 2-0 92.0 93.4 90.8 92.1
             
Big Ten Averages     108.7 108.6 108.4 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 0-0 1-1 95.7 93.9 97.1 95.6
Middle Tennessee 0-0 1-1 93.5 93.8 94.3 93.9
Old Dominion 0-0 2-0 90.6 93.5 91.1 91.7
Marshall 0-0 1-1 84.5 85.9 85.6 85.4
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-2 83.1 86.4 84.2 84.6
Florida Int’l. 0-0 1-1 81.2 81.4 82.2 81.6
Charlotte 0-0 0-2 74.5 77.1 74.9 75.5
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-0 1-0 93.9 95.6 96.1 95.2
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-1 87.2 89.1 87.9 88.1
Southern Miss. 0-0 1-1 87.1 88.5 87.2 87.6
N. Texas 0-0 1-1 81.3 82.9 81.2 81.8
Rice 1-0 1-1 79.6 80.7 80.1 80.1
U T E P 0-1 0-2 72.9 77.3 74.0 74.8
UAB 0-0 1-1 64.1 69.3 66.1 66.5
             
CUSA Averages     83.5 85.4 84.4 84.4
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   1-1 111.2 109.3 111.3 110.6
BYU   1-2 100.9 99.8 101.3 100.6
Army   2-0 96.3 95.9 97.2 96.5
Massachusetts   0-3 83.4 82.6 83.1 83.0
             
Indep. Averages     97.9 96.9 98.2 97.7
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 0-0 1-1 92.9 95.3 95.1 94.4
Ohio U 0-0 1-1 89.5 91.4 90.4 90.4
Akron 0-0 1-1 83.7 87.5 83.7 85.0
Buffalo 0-0 0-2 82.5 85.2 84.5 84.1
Kent St. 0-0 1-1 82.9 84.1 83.9 83.6
Bowling Green 0-0 0-2 81.2 81.8 82.1 81.7
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 0-0 2-0 99.4 99.5 101.2 100.0
Western Michigan 0-0 0-2 100.4 97.7 101.8 100.0
Eastern Michigan 0-0 2-0 94.6 94.2 94.5 94.4
Central Michigan 0-0 2-0 91.4 91.8 91.8 91.7
Northern Illinois 0-0 1-1 86.4 86.4 86.6 86.4
Ball St. 0-0 1-1 79.0 81.4 80.6 80.3
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.7 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 0-0 2-1 103.9 102.5 103.8 103.4
Boise St. 0-0 1-1 101.6 99.4 101.0 100.7
Wyoming 0-0 1-1 98.7 96.3 97.5 97.5
Air Force 0-0 1-0 93.3 94.0 93.6 93.6
New Mexico 0-0 1-1 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.0
Utah St. 0-0 1-1 87.6 86.5 86.8 87.0
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 0-0 2-0 100.9 101.5 102.1 101.5
Hawaii 0-0 2-1 88.6 90.2 88.6 89.1
U N L V 0-0 1-1 87.5 90.4 87.9 88.6
Fresno St. 0-0 1-1 88.1 86.7 88.2 87.7
Nevada 0-0 0-2 85.3 88.4 87.3 87.0
San Jose St. 0-0 1-2 84.5 83.7 83.8 84.0
             
MWC Averages     92.6 92.6 92.7 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 0-0 2-0 128.9 125.3 129.7 128.0
Stanford 0-1 1-1 118.8 116.7 117.9 117.8
Washington St. 0-0 2-0 116.8 114.0 115.9 115.6
Oregon 0-0 2-0 111.1 107.9 110.2 109.7
California 0-0 2-0 99.9 97.3 97.9 98.4
Oregon St. 0-0 1-2 92.8 92.9 91.3 92.3
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 1-0 2-0 122.0 121.3 122.3 121.9
Colorado 0-0 2-0 113.7 111.7 111.5 112.3
U C L A 0-0 2-0 110.2 109.2 109.7 109.7
Utah 0-0 2-0 105.4 107.9 105.7 106.3
Arizona St. 0-0 1-1 100.5 100.9 99.6 100.3
Arizona 0-0 1-1 98.7 97.5 96.6 97.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.9 108.5 109.0 109.2
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 0-0 2-0 116.7 117.9 116.8 117.1
Florida 0-0 0-1 115.4 114.7 114.7 114.9
Tennessee 0-0 2-0 112.0 110.0 110.2 110.7
Kentucky 0-0 2-0 111.3 109.8 110.8 110.6
Vanderbilt 0-0 2-0 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
S. Carolina 1-0 2-0 108.8 108.0 108.0 108.3
Missouri 0-1 1-1 102.6 99.7 101.3 101.2
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 0-0 2-0 133.0 128.2 132.0 131.1
Auburn 0-0 1-1 124.0 121.9 123.8 123.2
L S U 0-0 2-0 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
Mississippi St. 0-0 2-0 107.0 107.6 107.4 107.3
Arkansas 0-0 1-1 106.7 106.2 106.5 106.5
Ole Miss 0-0 2-0 107.4 106.0 105.8 106.4
Texas A&M 0-0 1-1 105.1 102.7 103.7 103.8
             
SEC Averages     112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 0-0 1-1 99.7 96.9 100.2 98.9
Troy 0-0 1-1 93.7 93.9 92.9 93.5
Arkansas St. 0-0 0-1 89.5 91.1 91.2 90.6
N. Mexico St. 0-0 1-1 87.1 84.6 86.6 86.1
UL-Lafayette 0-0 1-1 84.2 85.8 84.0 84.7
S. Alabama 0-0 0-2 83.5 86.4 83.7 84.5
Georgia St. 0-0 0-1 84.5 83.7 84.4 84.2
Idaho 0-0 1-1 82.0 85.0 82.8 83.2
UL-Monroe 0-0 0-1 81.8 82.1 80.3 81.4
Georgia Southern 0-0 0-2 79.9 81.2 79.5 80.2
Coastal Carolina 0-0 1-0 74.8 75.7 76.6 75.7
Texas St. 0-0 1-1 71.5 74.8 70.3 72.2
             
Sun Belt Averages     84.4 85.1 84.4 84.6

The Conferences Rated

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
2 ACC 112.5 111.3 111.8 111.9
3 BIG 12 109.2 109.4 109.4 109.3
4 PAC-12 109.9 108.5 109.0 109.2
5 BIG TEN 108.7 108.6 108.4 108.6
6 AAC 97.6 98.2 98.0 97.9
7 INDEP. 97.9 96.9 98.2 97.7
8 MWC 92.6 92.6 92.7 92.7
9 MAC 88.7 89.7 89.7 89.3
10 Sun Belt 84.4 85.1 84.4 84.6
11 CUSA 83.5 85.4 84.4 84.4

Bowl Projections begin in October

August 23, 2017

2017 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

The folks around the Atlantic Coast Conference have a decent case to support in the statement that their league, and not the Southeastern Conference, is the supreme college football conference in the land.  Clemson bested Alabama in the National Championship Game.  The ACC went 4-1 against the SEC in bowl games, and the ACC won 10 of 14 games overall against the SEC in 2016.  Five ACC teams finished the season in the top 25.

The 2017 season begins with the SEC just a tiny hair above the ACC in PiRate Ratings averages.  Early games between Alabama and Florida State, Tennessee and Georgia Tech, and Clemson and Auburn will go a long way in determining conference supremacy, and season ending games between Florida and Florida St. Georgia and Georgia Tech, and Louisville and Kentucky will seal the deal if one conference dominates the other.

This league has a little more depth this year.  It may be tougher for any team to go undefeated, as the team with the best quarterback, Louisville with Lamar Jackson, has an average at best defense.  Florida State has the next best quarterback in Deondre Francois, and the Seminoles have a nice stable of running backs.  However, there are some questions at wide receiver, and there could be depth issues in the offensive line.  Clemson still has the overall best combination of offensive and defensive lines, but the defending national champions must replace Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams on the attack side.  Figure CU to average about 10-14 fewer points per game.

While the top three in the Atlantic Division have exceptional talent but with some questions, the other four teams could all be better than last year, especially North Carolina State and Syracuse.

The Coastal Division race should be quite interesting.  Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and even Duke could challenge for the divisional flag.  The league could be just balanced enough so that no ACC team earns a Playoff bid.

Here is how the ACC Media voted in the preseason:

ACC Atlantic Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Florida St. 121 1,108 118
2 Clemson 37 1,007 35
3 Louisville 9 843 7
4 North Carolina St. 0 658 0
5 Wake Forest 0 415 0
6 Syracuse 0 362 0
7 Boston College 0 283 0
         
ACC Coastal Division
# Team 1st Pl. Total Champ.
1 Miami (Fla) 103 1,065 3
2 Virginia Tech 40 932 3
3 Georgia Tech 9 708 0
4 Pittsburgh 7 673 0
5 North Carolina 4 606 0
6 Duke 4 473 1
7 Virginia 0 219 0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings still show Clemson to be slightly better than Florida State in the initial ratings of the season.  However, the margin is razor thin, and we expect a lot of shuffling early in the season due to heavy schedules.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
         
ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8

Here are our unscientific won-loss predictions and bowl projections for the league.

Atlantic Coast Conference Projected Standings
Atlantic Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Florida St. 7-1 11-2 Peach
Clemson 6-2 10-2 Orange
Louisville 6-2 9-3 Belk
North Carolina St. 5-3 8-4 Sun
Syracuse 3-5 6-6 [Heart of Dallas]
Boston College 1-7 4-8  
Wake Forest 1-7 3-9  
       
Coastal Division
Team Conference Overall Bowl
Miami (Fla) 6-2 10-3 Music City
Virginia Tech 6-2 10-2 Camping World
Georgia Tech 5-3 8-4 Independence
North Carolina 3-5 7-5 Military
Duke 3-5 6-6 Quick Lane
Pittsburgh 3-5 5-7  
Virginia 1-7 3-9  
Florida St. to win the ACC Championship Game
Notre Dame predicted to take ACC’s bid to the Pinstripe Bowl
Syracuse’s bid to Heart of Dallas Bowl is an at-large bid

Notre Dame qualifies for any ACC Bowl other than the Orange Bowl, if the Irish are within one win of the next available ACC team.  For instance, if Notre Dame goes 8-4, the Irish can leapfrog any 9-3 ACC team in an ACC Bowl.

Notre Dame can also qualify for the Orange Bowl as the replacement for the Big Ten or SEC team.

Later today: We will preview the Southeastern Conference in the afternoon (Eastern Time).  Can a West Division team dethrone Alabama?  Can any team from the West challenge for the SEC Championship?  Can more than one SEC team make this season’s playoffs?  Check back later today.

Coming Tomorrow: It is game week!  There are only five total games involving FBS teams, but it is real, and it counts.  So, we will debut our 2017 PiRate College Football Forecast.  We will show you all 130 teams ranked predictively and retrodictively, give you the spreads for the five games, and give you all of our bowl projections.

There will be no Money Line Parlay suggestions this week with so few games, but when we debut this feature next week, look for it on Friday morning.

 

March 18, 2017

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:02 pm

Sunday, March 18, 2017

Team Team Red White Blue
Louisville Michigan 4 3 6
Kentucky Wichita St. 1 1 8
Kansas Michigan St. 11 8 1
North Carolina Arkansas 14 10 8
Oregon Rhode Island 7 6 4
Baylor USC 17 9 8
Duke South Carolina 6 6 5
UCLA Cincinnati 1 1 -1

TV Schedule

Time (EDT) Network Team vs. Team
12:10 PM CBS Louisville vs. Michigan
2:40 PM CBS Kentucky vs. Wichita St.
5:15 PM CBS Kansas vs. Michigan St.
6:10 PM TNT North Carolina vs. Arkansas
7:10 PM TBS Oregon vs. Rhode Island
7:45 PM truTV Baylor vs. USC
8:40 PM TNT Duke vs. South Carolina
9:40 PM TBS UCLA vs. Cincinnati

Morning & Afternoon: Swallow Return to Capistrano

Spring Equinox: Monday, March 20, 2017 @ 6:29 AM EDT

 

 

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