PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for September 14-16, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

PiRate Ratings Spreads
September 14-16
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	New Mexico	12.9	10.4	11.8
Temple	Massachusetts	14.2	15.6	14.5
South Florida	Illinois	20.5	17.3	22.9
UTEP	Arizona	-23.3	-17.6	-20.1
South Carolina	Kentucky	0.5	1.2	0.2
Marshall	Kent St.	4.6	4.9	4.7
Boston College	Notre Dame	-8.1	-5.1	-8.8
Virginia	Connecticut	16.2	13.0	17.0
Michigan	Air Force	26.8	25.4	25.7
UAB	Coastal Carolina	-8.3	-3.8	-8.0
Miami (O)	Cincinnati	4.5	4.3	5.2
Penn St.	Georgia St.	45.2	43.7	46.0
Akron	Iowa St.	-15.1	-12.3	-15.7
Old Dominion	North Carolina	-16.3	-12.1	-14.3
Pittsburgh	Oklahoma St.	-9.8	-8.6	-12.3
Minnesota	Middle Tennessee	17.5	17.2	16.2
Indiana	Florida Int’l.	26.8	26.6	26.2
Memphis	UCLA	-2.3	-2.3	-1.4
Nebraska	Northern Illinois	20.7	22.3	19.7
Duke	Baylor	13.2	9.2	11.7
Ohio U	Kansas	4.0	2.8	5.7
Wake Forest	Utah St.	21.0	21.4	21.2
Louisville	Clemson	-8.2	-5.5	-7.1
Syracuse	Central Michigan	18.3	16.3	17.0
East Carolina	Virginia Tech	-28.3	-26.4	-28.7
BYU	Wisconsin	-17.3	-14.4	-15.1
Missouri	Purdue	7.8	2.8	5.7
Iowa	North Texas	33.3	31.3	33.0
Texas A&M	UL-Lafayette	23.9	19.9	22.7
Northwestern	Bowling Green	31.2	28.8	30.2
Oklahoma	Tulane	36.1	33.4	36.6
Florida	Tennessee	6.4	7.7	7.5
TCU	SMU	19.0	16.1	18.6
Western Kentucky	Louisiana Tech	11.5	7.8	12.1
Ohio St.	Army	36.2	33.7	34.5
Washington St.	Oregon St.	27.0	24.1	27.6
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-25.8	-19.6	-27.4
Alabama	Colorado St.	32.1	28.7	31.2
Toledo	Tulsa	-0.4	0.4	1.3
Western Michigan	Idaho	21.4	15.8	22.0
UL-Monroe	Southern Miss.	-2.8	-3.9	-4.3
Wyoming	Oregon	-9.5	-8.6	-9.7
Mississippi St.	LSU	-10.3	-7.9	-10.6
Central Florida	Georgia Tech	-7.5	-2.9	-4.6
Vanderbilt	Kansas St.	-1.6	-3.0	-3.2
Houston	Rice	26.1	23.8	25.2
New Mexico St.	Troy	-3.5	-6.3	-3.4
Texas Tech	Arizona St.	5.3	4.6	5.0
USC	Texas	13.0	11.3	13.2
Utah	San Jose St.	23.9	27.2	24.9
Washington	Fresno St.	43.8	41.5	44.5
California	Ole Miss	-4.0	-5.2	-4.3
San Diego St.	Stanford	-15.0	-12.1	-12.8

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Auburn	Mercer	40
Georgia	Samford	26
UTSA	Southern	24
West Virginia	Delaware St.	55
North Carolina St.	Furman	31
Colorado	Northern Colorado	39
Ball St.	Tennessee Tech	20
Rutgers	Morgan St.	36
Charlotte	N.C. A&T	-2
Buffalo	Colgate	7
Nevada	Idaho St.	25
Arkansas St.	Ark.-Pine Bluff	51
South Alabama	Alabama A&M	28
Florida Atlantic	Bethune-Cookman	15

The Big 12 Arises Like The Phoenix
A week after Texas and Baylor suffered devastating losses, the Big 12 returned from the dead with some major victories. Oklahoma went to the Giant Horseshoe and toyed with Ohio State for most of the evening. The Sooners looked about as effective on offense as they looked back in 2008, when they had Sam Bradford, Chris Brown, Demarco Murray, Juaquin Iglesias, Jermaine Gresham. But, it was the defense that really looked dominant. Oklahoma’s effort Saturday night reminded us more of their 2001 team that featured Tommie Harris, Rocky Calmus, Derrick Strait, and Roy Williams.

TCU’s defense totally shut down Arkansas in the Horned Frogs win at Fayetteville. TCU’s defense held Arkansas to 13 first downs and 267 total yards; more importantly, they held them to just 7 points.

Oklahoma State won on the road at South Alabama, which doesn’t sound like a big deal, but the Jaguars have a history of sneaking up on Power 5 conference teams.

Baylor lost once again, and Iowa State just missed against Iowa, while Texas played much better in their drubbing of San Jose St. The Longhorns get a chance to redeem themselves for the Maryland debacle when they venture to the LA Coliseum to take on USC this week. If UT keeps this game close, then watch out for the ‘Horns in Big 12 Conference play. It is a transition process into Coach Tom Herman’s offense, but Herman’s teams find a way to win, and Texas will win more than they did last year.

ACC Tilt Highlights Top Games This Week
Following Clemson’s defensive gem against Auburn, the Tigers must now face the reigning Heisman Trophy winner on his turf. Clemson’s game at Louisville tops this week’s schedule. Louisville has the horses to do to CU what they did to Florida State last year, but we believe Coach Dabo Swinney will come up with another brilliant game plan to slow down the Cardinal attack. The issue is whether the Clemson offense has enough to get to about 27 points, because even when you slow down the ‘Ville, you might still give up 24 points.

Clemson’s big rival has a big game this week. South Carolina hosts Kentucky. USC already owns a conference win and can take a major step forward toward competing with Georgia for the East Division flag. Kentucky has not looked up to the standards we thought they had the potential to be, performing so-so in wins over Southern Miss and Eastern Kentucky.

Florida hosts Tennessee in the Swamp, and the Gators got a week off after their no-show event against Michigan. Meanwhile, Tennessee is playing its third game in 12 days and has suffered a couple of injury losses. The Vols’ offense has been at the extremes. On one drive, they look like Louisville, and on the next drive they look like a college version of the New York Jets or San Francisco 49ers. Florida was very consistent offensively against Michigan–they looked like the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on every drive against the Wolverines. Expect the Gators to play near their maximum capacity in this game. They cannot start 0-2 with a now 11-game schedule and have much chance to recover to much more than 7-4 and possibly just 6-5. A Tennessee win puts the Big Orange into the contender category in the mediocre East Division.

LSU travels north to take on an under-the-radar Mississippi State team that has circled this game on their schedule since Spring Ball. Miss State has just one win over the Tigers in the 16 games in this century, and that one win came at Baton Rouge. The last time the Bulldogs bested their Bayou Rivals in Starkville was 1999. The winner of this game has to be taken seriously as a top contender to Alabama.

Kansas State looks to prove that it belongs in the discussion in the Big 12, and the Wildcats have a tough game at Vanderbilt this week. The Commodores looked similar to Stanford and Michigan in their opening two wins, but to beat a top 15 team is a lot different than beating Middle Tennessee and Alabama A&M. This game actually features the top two passing offenses in Raw QB Ratings, as Kyle Shurmur has Vandy at #1, while Jesse Ertz has Kansas State at #2. This looks to be the best Kansas State offense since the great 1998 team almost made it to the National Championship Game.

The previously mentioned Texas-USC game should be interesting, but the Trojans should eventually win this one by two touchdowns or more. However, if the Longhorns can control the clock offensively, their questionable defense can hold on long enough to make this game close enough to be undecided until the fourth quarter.

The late game on the Coast has Stanford playing at San Diego State. If the Aztecs are to challenge for the Group of 5’s top spot and the New Year’s 6 Bowl, they must win this game. Stanford will be a tough out for the hometown team, but Rocky Long has SDSU looking like a team capable of running the table if they get past the Cardinal.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
This happens frequently in September. A top team is upset by another team, but the top team still rates ahead of the team that beat them. That’s the liability of predictive ratings, and the strength of retrodictive ratings. We have three predictive ratings–the regular PiRate, the PiRate Mean, and the PiRate Bias. We also have one set of PiRate Retrodictive Ratings.

If you need a primer, predictive ratings take what the teams have done so far and tries to predict what they will do next week. So, if State U has a predictive rating of 113.5 and plays Tech with a rating of 110.2, then before home field advantage (and road team disadvantage) are factored in, State is expected to beat Tech by 3.3 points. Let’s say the game is at State, and our special Pirate formula shows State to have a 3.2 point home field advantage for this game. It would then be quite easy to see that State should beat teach by 6.5 points.

Our retrodictive rating does not try to predict the outcomes of the next week’s slate of games. It is only concerned with what the teams have done. If State and Tech were to have the same Retro Ratings as their predictive ratings, this would not indicate that State should win by 6.5 points. It only means that to date, State has been about 3.3 points better in their results than Tech has been (no home field advantage used because this rating does not predict outcomes).

Why are we bringing this up? Simple. Ohio State is still number two in our predictive ratings. Oklahoma is behind the Buckeyes. In our Retrodictive Ratings, Ohio State fell quite a bit, just like Florida State did after losing to Alabama.

How can our predictive ratings show Ohio State to still be number two? It is a case of methodology. Our updates to our Predictive Ratings are rather conservative, with the Mean Rating being the most conservative, and the Bias being the least conservative, but still conservative. Remember, our predictive ratings are only looking forward and not backward. It is easier to think in terms of a major upset, like when Ole Miss beat Alabama two consecutive seasons. These two wins did not jump Ole Miss over the Tide. In a similar manner, when LSU beat Alabama during the regular season in 2011, Alabama stayed ahead of LSU in the ratings. When they met again in the National Championship Game, Alabama was the favorite, and they won 21-0.

We will lead with our Retrodictive Ratings First–We have put the rating numbers in this week to show you the difference between these ratings and the Predictive Ratings.

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team	Retro
1	Alabama	127.2
2	Clemson	125.8
3	Washington	124.9
4	Oklahoma	124.6
5	USC	124.1
6	Penn St.	123.8
7	LSU	122.3
8	Ohio St.	120.8
9	Oklahoma St.	120.4
10	Wisconsin	118.8
11	Michigan	118.6
12	Miami (Fla)	116.6
13	Louisville	116.5
14	Florida St.	116.4
15	Auburn	115.9
16	Virginia Tech	115.6
17	Stanford	114.5
18	Kansas St.	114.0
19	Georgia	113.9
20	Tennessee	113.1
21	TCU	112.7
22	Washington St.	112.4
23	Utah	112.2
24	Iowa	111.9
25	Colorado	111.8
26	Florida	111.5
27	Houston	111.3
28	Mississippi St.	110.8
29	South Florida	110.3
30	San Diego St.	110.0
31	Georgia Tech	109.5
32	South Carolina	109.3
33	UCLA	109.1
34	Oregon	108.9
35	Notre Dame	108.8
36	Vanderbilt	108.6
37	West Virginia	108.3
38	Minnesota	108.0
39	Boise St.	107.7
40	Michigan St.	107.0
41	Pittsburgh	106.7
42	Toledo	106.1
43	Texas A&M	104.8
44	Wake Forest	104.3
45	Nebraska	104.0
46	Maryland	103.8
47	Duke	103.7
48	Kentucky	103.7
49	North Carolina St.	103.1
50	Memphis	103.0
51	Northwestern	101.8
52	Navy	101.6
53	Ole Miss	101.5
54	California	101.3
55	Tulsa	101.1
56	Texas	101.0
57	Arkansas	100.7
58	Air Force	100.5
59	Western Michigan	100.1
60	Colorado St.	100.0
61	Texas Tech	99.8
62	BYU	99.3
63	Appalachian St.	98.7
64	North Carolina	98.4
65	Army	98.1
66	SMU	97.9
67	Central Florida	97.7
68	Temple	97.5
69	Boston College	97.3
70	Indiana	97.1
71	Old Dominion	96.8
72	Western Kentucky	96.7
73	Troy	96.5
74	Arkansas St.	96.4
75	UTSA	96.2
76	Iowa St.	96.0
77	Purdue	95.9
78	Wyoming	95.7
79	Louisiana Tech	95.4
80	Illinois	95.3
81	Missouri	95.2
82	Eastern Michigan	95.0
83	Central Michigan	94.8
84	Arizona St.	94.4
85	Arizona	94.2
86	Middle Tennessee	94.0
87	Northern Illinois	93.8
88	Ohio	93.6
89	Syracuse	93.5
90	Tulane	93.5
91	Baylor	93.3
92	Southern Miss.	93.2
93	Oregon St.	93.1
94	New Mexico	92.9
95	Hawaii	92.7
96	Utah St.	92.2
97	Idaho	91.5
98	Cincinnati	91.2
99	Miami (O)	91.1
100	Virginia	90.9
101	UL-Lafayette	90.7
102	Coastal Carolina	90.0
103	Akron	89.6
104	Marshall	89.6
105	Nevada	89.3
106	New Mexico St.	88.8
107	Rutgers	88.5
108	Ball St.	88.3
109	South Alabama	88.0
110	Fresno St.	87.9
111	Georgia Southern	87.4
112	North Texas	87.1
113	Connecticut	86.6
114	UL-Monroe	86.3
115	San Jose St.	86.1
116	Kent St.	85.9
117	Kansas	85.5
118	Rice	85.2
119	Buffalo	84.9
120	UNLV	84.4
121	East Carolina	83.7
122	Georgia St.	83.6
123	Florida Int’l.	83.4
124	Bowling Green	83.0
125	Florida Atlantic	82.6
126	UTEP	82.1
127	UAB	80.5
128	Texas St.	79.1
129	Charlotte	77.5
130	Massachusetts	75.3

Our Regular Predictive Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	133.0	128.2	132.0	131.1
2	Ohio St.	129.4	126.6	128.7	128.2
3	Washington	128.9	125.3	129.7	128.0
4	Clemson	128.9	125.1	128.1	127.4
5	Oklahoma	127.7	125.4	128.6	127.2
6	Florida St.	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
7	Penn St.	126.2	124.0	126.9	125.7
8	Auburn	124.0	121.9	123.8	123.2
9	U S C	122.0	121.3	122.3	121.9
10	Oklahoma St.	121.6	120.3	123.2	121.7
11	L S U	120.3	118.5	121.0	119.9
12	Wisconsin	121.1	117.2	119.4	119.3
13	Stanford	118.8	116.7	117.9	117.8
14	Miami	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
15	Louisville	117.7	116.6	118.0	117.4
16	Georgia	116.7	117.9	116.8	117.1
17	Michigan	117.1	116.4	116.3	116.6
18	Virginia Tech	116.2	115.8	116.6	116.2
19	Washington St.	116.8	114.0	115.9	115.6
20	Florida	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
21	Kansas St.	114.8	114.5	115.3	114.9
22	T C U	114.8	112.1	114.7	113.8
23	N. Carolina St.	113.4	113.1	113.1	113.2
24	Texas	112.0	113.0	112.0	112.4
25	Colorado	113.7	111.7	111.5	112.3
26	Georgia Tech	113.1	110.6	111.1	111.6
27	Iowa	111.5	111.2	111.2	111.3
28	Tennessee	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
29	Kentucky	111.3	109.8	110.8	110.6
30	Notre Dame	111.2	109.3	111.3	110.6
31	Oregon	111.1	107.9	110.2	109.7
32	U C L A	110.2	109.2	109.7	109.7
33	West Virginia	109.1	109.9	109.1	109.4
34	Vanderbilt	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
35	South Florida	109.5	107.7	110.7	109.3
36	Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.3	108.7
37	Pittsburgh	108.8	108.7	108.0	108.5
38	Duke	109.5	108.1	107.9	108.5
39	N. Carolina	109.4	108.1	107.9	108.5
40	S. Carolina	108.8	108.0	108.0	108.3
41	Minnesota	108.0	108.0	107.5	107.8
42	Mississippi St.	107.0	107.6	107.4	107.3
43	Arkansas	106.7	106.2	106.5	106.5
44	Ole Miss	107.4	106.0	105.8	106.4
45	Utah	105.4	107.9	105.7	106.3
46	Maryland	105.6	107.7	105.7	106.3
47	Syracuse	106.7	105.1	105.8	105.9
48	Indiana	105.0	105.1	105.4	105.2
49	Memphis	104.9	103.9	105.3	104.7
50	Wake Forest	105.1	104.4	104.5	104.6
51	Nebraska	104.1	105.7	103.3	104.4
52	Texas A&M	105.1	102.7	103.7	103.8
53	Houston	104.2	103.0	103.8	103.7
54	Central Florida	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
55	Colo. State	103.9	102.5	103.8	103.4
56	Tulsa	102.8	102.1	102.8	102.6
57	Iowa State	101.7	102.8	102.4	102.3
58	Texas Tech	102.8	102.5	101.6	102.3
59	San Diego St.	100.9	101.5	102.1	101.5
60	Missouri	102.6	99.7	101.3	101.2
61	Boise St.	101.6	99.4	101.0	100.7
62	BYU	100.9	99.8	101.3	100.6
63	Virginia	99.9	99.9	101.3	100.4
64	Arizona St.	100.5	100.9	99.6	100.3
65	Boston College	100.1	101.2	99.5	100.3
66	Baylor	99.3	101.9	99.2	100.1
67	Michigan St.	98.6	102.0	99.5	100.0
68	Toledo	99.4	99.5	101.2	100.0
69	Western Michigan	100.4	97.7	101.8	100.0
70	Navy	99.0	100.0	98.9	99.3
71	Appalachian St.	99.7	96.9	100.2	98.9
72	Purdue	97.8	99.9	98.6	98.8
73	California	99.9	97.3	97.9	98.4
74	Arizona	98.7	97.5	96.6	97.6
75	Wyoming	98.7	96.3	97.5	97.5
76	SMU	97.2	97.5	97.6	97.4
77	Army	96.3	95.9	97.2	96.5
78	Rutgers	95.9	95.9	95.4	95.7
79	W. Kentucky	95.7	93.9	97.1	95.6
80	Temple	95.0	95.7	95.1	95.3
81	U T S A	93.9	95.6	96.1	95.2
82	Tulane	94.6	95.0	95.0	94.9
83	Eastern Michigan	94.6	94.2	94.5	94.4
84	Miami (O)	92.9	95.3	95.1	94.4
85	Middle Tennessee	93.5	93.8	94.3	93.9
86	Air Force	93.3	94.0	93.6	93.6
87	Troy	93.7	93.9	92.9	93.5
88	Oregon St.	92.8	92.9	91.3	92.3
89	Illinois	92.0	93.4	90.8	92.1
90	New Mexico	91.7	92.0	92.2	92.0
91	Old Dominion	90.6	93.5	91.1	91.7
92	Central Michigan	91.4	91.8	91.8	91.7
93	Cincinnati	89.9	92.4	91.4	91.2
94	Arkansas St.	89.5	91.1	91.2	90.6
95	Ohio U	89.5	91.4	90.4	90.4
96	Kansas	88.4	91.6	87.7	89.3
97	Hawaii	88.6	90.2	88.6	89.1
98	U N L V	87.5	90.4	87.9	88.6
99	Louisiana Tech	87.2	89.1	87.9	88.1
100	Connecticut	86.7	89.9	87.3	88.0
101	Fresno St.	88.1	86.7	88.2	87.7
102	Southern Miss.	87.1	88.5	87.2	87.6
103	Nevada	85.3	88.4	87.3	87.0
104	Utah St.	87.6	86.5	86.8	87.0
105	Northern Illinois	86.4	86.4	86.6	86.4
106	N. Mexico St.	87.1	84.6	86.6	86.1
107	East Carolina	84.9	86.4	84.8	85.4
108	Marshall	84.5	85.9	85.6	85.4
109	Akron	83.7	87.5	83.7	85.0
110	UL-Lafayette	84.2	85.8	84.0	84.7
111	Florida Atlantic	83.1	86.4	84.2	84.6
112	S. Alabama	83.5	86.4	83.7	84.5
113	Georgia St.	84.5	83.7	84.4	84.2
114	Buffalo	82.5	85.2	84.5	84.1
115	San Jose St.	84.5	83.7	83.8	84.0
116	Kent St.	82.9	84.1	83.9	83.6
117	Idaho	82.0	85.0	82.8	83.2
118	Massachusetts	83.4	82.6	83.1	83.0
119	N. Texas	81.3	82.9	81.2	81.8
120	Bowling Green	81.2	81.8	82.1	81.7
121	Florida Int’l.	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
122	UL-Monroe	81.8	82.1	80.3	81.4
123	Ball St.	79.0	81.4	80.6	80.3
124	Georgia Southern	79.9	81.2	79.5	80.2
125	Rice	79.6	80.7	80.1	80.1
126	Coastal Carolina	74.8	75.7	76.6	75.7
127	Charlotte	74.5	77.1	74.9	75.5
128	U T E P	72.9	77.3	74.0	74.8
129	Texas St.	71.5	74.8	70.3	72.2
130	UAB	64.1	69.3	66.1	66.5

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	0-0	2-0	109.5	107.7	110.7	109.3
Central Florida	0-0	1-0	102.6	104.7	103.5	103.6
Temple	0-0	1-1	95.0	95.7	95.1	95.3
Cincinnati	0-0	1-1	89.9	92.4	91.4	91.2
Connecticut	0-0	1-0	86.7	89.9	87.3	88.0
East Carolina	0-0	0-2	84.9	86.4	84.8	85.4
West Division
Team	AAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Memphis	0-0	1-0	104.9	103.9	105.3	104.7
Houston	0-0	1-0	104.2	103.0	103.8	103.7
Tulsa	0-0	1-1	102.8	102.1	102.8	102.6
Navy	1-0	2-0	99.0	100.0	98.9	99.3
SMU	0-0	2-0	97.2	97.5	97.6	97.4
Tulane	0-1	1-1	94.6	95.0	95.0	94.9
AAC Averages			97.6	98.2	98.0	97.9
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	0-0	2-0	128.9	125.1	128.1	127.4
Florida St.	0-0	0-1	126.9	124.9	126.2	126.0
Louisville	1-0	2-0	117.7	116.6	118.0	117.4
N. Carolina St.	0-0	1-1	113.4	113.1	113.1	113.2
Syracuse	0-0	1-1	106.7	105.1	105.8	105.9
Wake Forest	1-0	2-0	105.1	104.4	104.5	104.6
Boston College	0-1	1-1	100.1	101.2	99.5	100.3
Coastal Division
Team	ACC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	0-0	1-0	118.7	116.3	117.8	117.6
Virginia Tech	0-0	2-0	116.2	115.8	116.6	116.2
Georgia Tech	0-0	1-1	113.1	110.6	111.1	111.6
Pittsburgh	0-0	1-1	108.8	108.7	108.0	108.5
Duke	0-0	2-0	109.5	108.1	107.9	108.5
N. Carolina	0-1	0-2	109.4	108.1	107.9	108.5
Virginia	0-0	1-1	99.9	99.9	101.3	100.4
ACC Averages			112.5	111.3	111.8	111.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	B12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	0-0	2-0	127.7	125.4	128.6	127.2
Oklahoma St.	0-0	2-0	121.6	120.3	123.2	121.7
Kansas St.	0-0	2-0	114.8	114.5	115.3	114.9
T C U	0-0	2-0	114.8	112.1	114.7	113.8
Texas	0-0	1-1	112.0	113.0	112.0	112.4
West Virginia	0-0	1-1	109.1	109.9	109.1	109.4
Iowa State	0-0	1-1	101.7	102.8	102.4	102.3
Texas Tech	0-0	1-0	102.8	102.5	101.6	102.3
Baylor	0-0	0-2	99.3	101.9	99.2	100.1
Kansas	0-0	1-1	88.4	91.6	87.7	89.3
Big 12 Averages			109.2	109.4	109.4	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	1-0	1-1	129.4	126.6	128.7	128.2
Penn St.	0-0	2-0	126.2	124.0	126.9	125.7
Michigan	0-0	2-0	117.1	116.4	116.3	116.6
Maryland	0-0	2-0	105.6	107.7	105.7	106.3
Indiana	0-1	1-1	105.0	105.1	105.4	105.2
Michigan St.	0-0	2-0	98.6	102.0	99.5	100.0
Rutgers	0-0	0-2	95.9	95.9	95.4	95.7
West Division
Team	BTen	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	0-0	2-0	121.1	117.2	119.4	119.3
Iowa	0-0	2-0	111.5	111.2	111.2	111.3
Northwestern	0-0	1-1	109.4	107.5	109.3	108.7
Minnesota	0-0	2-0	108.0	108.0	107.5	107.8
Nebraska	0-0	1-1	104.1	105.7	103.3	104.4
Purdue	0-0	1-1	97.8	99.9	98.6	98.8
Illinois	0-0	2-0	92.0	93.4	90.8	92.1
Big Ten Averages			108.7	108.6	108.4	108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	0-0	1-1	95.7	93.9	97.1	95.6
Middle Tennessee	0-0	1-1	93.5	93.8	94.3	93.9
Old Dominion	0-0	2-0	90.6	93.5	91.1	91.7
Marshall	0-0	1-1	84.5	85.9	85.6	85.4
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-2	83.1	86.4	84.2	84.6
Florida Int’l.	0-0	1-1	81.2	81.4	82.2	81.6
Charlotte	0-0	0-2	74.5	77.1	74.9	75.5
West Division
Team	CUSA	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	0-0	1-0	93.9	95.6	96.1	95.2
Louisiana Tech	0-0	1-1	87.2	89.1	87.9	88.1
Southern Miss.	0-0	1-1	87.1	88.5	87.2	87.6
N. Texas	0-0	1-1	81.3	82.9	81.2	81.8
Rice	1-0	1-1	79.6	80.7	80.1	80.1
U T E P	0-1	0-2	72.9	77.3	74.0	74.8
UAB	0-0	1-1	64.1	69.3	66.1	66.5
CUSA Averages			83.5	85.4	84.4	84.4
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		1-1	111.2	109.3	111.3	110.6
BYU		1-2	100.9	99.8	101.3	100.6
Army		2-0	96.3	95.9	97.2	96.5
Massachusetts		0-3	83.4	82.6	83.1	83.0
Indep. Averages			97.9	96.9	98.2	97.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (O)	0-0	1-1	92.9	95.3	95.1	94.4
Ohio U	0-0	1-1	89.5	91.4	90.4	90.4
Akron	0-0	1-1	83.7	87.5	83.7	85.0
Buffalo	0-0	0-2	82.5	85.2	84.5	84.1
Kent St.	0-0	1-1	82.9	84.1	83.9	83.6
Bowling Green	0-0	0-2	81.2	81.8	82.1	81.7
West Division
Team	MAC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	0-0	2-0	99.4	99.5	101.2	100.0
Western Michigan	0-0	0-2	100.4	97.7	101.8	100.0
Eastern Michigan	0-0	2-0	94.6	94.2	94.5	94.4
Central Michigan	0-0	2-0	91.4	91.8	91.8	91.7
Northern Illinois	0-0	1-1	86.4	86.4	86.6	86.4
Ball St.	0-0	1-1	79.0	81.4	80.6	80.3
MAC Averages			88.7	89.7	89.7	89.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colo. State	0-0	2-1	103.9	102.5	103.8	103.4
Boise St.	0-0	1-1	101.6	99.4	101.0	100.7
Wyoming	0-0	1-1	98.7	96.3	97.5	97.5
Air Force	0-0	1-0	93.3	94.0	93.6	93.6
New Mexico	0-0	1-1	91.7	92.0	92.2	92.0
Utah St.	0-0	1-1	87.6	86.5	86.8	87.0
West Division
Team	MWC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	0-0	2-0	100.9	101.5	102.1	101.5
Hawaii	0-0	2-1	88.6	90.2	88.6	89.1
U N L V	0-0	1-1	87.5	90.4	87.9	88.6
Fresno St.	0-0	1-1	88.1	86.7	88.2	87.7
Nevada	0-0	0-2	85.3	88.4	87.3	87.0
San Jose St.	0-0	1-2	84.5	83.7	83.8	84.0
MWC Averages			92.6	92.6	92.7	92.7
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	0-0	2-0	128.9	125.3	129.7	128.0
Stanford	0-1	1-1	118.8	116.7	117.9	117.8
Washington St.	0-0	2-0	116.8	114.0	115.9	115.6
Oregon	0-0	2-0	111.1	107.9	110.2	109.7
California	0-0	2-0	99.9	97.3	97.9	98.4
Oregon St.	0-0	1-2	92.8	92.9	91.3	92.3
South Division
Team	P12	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	1-0	2-0	122.0	121.3	122.3	121.9
Colorado	0-0	2-0	113.7	111.7	111.5	112.3
U C L A	0-0	2-0	110.2	109.2	109.7	109.7
Utah	0-0	2-0	105.4	107.9	105.7	106.3
Arizona St.	0-0	1-1	100.5	100.9	99.6	100.3
Arizona	0-0	1-1	98.7	97.5	96.6	97.6
Pac-12 Averages			109.9	108.5	109.0	109.2
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	0-0	2-0	116.7	117.9	116.8	117.1
Florida	0-0	0-1	115.4	114.7	114.7	114.9
Tennessee	0-0	2-0	112.0	110.0	110.2	110.7
Kentucky	0-0	2-0	111.3	109.8	110.8	110.6
Vanderbilt	0-0	2-0	110.2	108.5	109.2	109.3
S. Carolina	1-0	2-0	108.8	108.0	108.0	108.3
Missouri	0-1	1-1	102.6	99.7	101.3	101.2
West Division
Team	SEC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	0-0	2-0	133.0	128.2	132.0	131.1
Auburn	0-0	1-1	124.0	121.9	123.8	123.2
L S U	0-0	2-0	120.3	118.5	121.0	119.9
Mississippi St.	0-0	2-0	107.0	107.6	107.4	107.3
Arkansas	0-0	1-1	106.7	106.2	106.5	106.5
Ole Miss	0-0	2-0	107.4	106.0	105.8	106.4
Texas A&M	0-0	1-1	105.1	102.7	103.7	103.8
SEC Averages			112.9	111.4	112.2	112.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	SBC	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	0-0	1-1	99.7	96.9	100.2	98.9
Troy	0-0	1-1	93.7	93.9	92.9	93.5
Arkansas St.	0-0	0-1	89.5	91.1	91.2	90.6
N. Mexico St.	0-0	1-1	87.1	84.6	86.6	86.1
UL-Lafayette	0-0	1-1	84.2	85.8	84.0	84.7
S. Alabama	0-0	0-2	83.5	86.4	83.7	84.5
Georgia St.	0-0	0-1	84.5	83.7	84.4	84.2
Idaho	0-0	1-1	82.0	85.0	82.8	83.2
UL-Monroe	0-0	0-1	81.8	82.1	80.3	81.4
Georgia Southern	0-0	0-2	79.9	81.2	79.5	80.2
Coastal Carolina	0-0	1-0	74.8	75.7	76.6	75.7
Texas St.	0-0	1-1	71.5	74.8	70.3	72.2
Sun Belt Averages			84.4	85.1	84.4	84.6

The Conferences Rated

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.9	111.4	112.2	112.2
2	ACC	112.5	111.3	111.8	111.9
3	BIG 12	109.2	109.4	109.4	109.3
4	PAC-12	109.9	108.5	109.0	109.2
5	BIG TEN	108.7	108.6	108.4	108.6
6	AAC	97.6	98.2	98.0	97.9
7	INDEP.	97.9	96.9	98.2	97.7
8	MWC	92.6	92.6	92.7	92.7
9	MAC	88.7	89.7	89.7	89.3
10	Sun Belt	84.4	85.1	84.4	84.6
11	CUSA	83.5	85.4	84.4	84.4

Bowl Projections begin in October

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2017 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview

The folks around the Atlantic Coast Conference have a decent case to support in the statement that their league, and not the Southeastern Conference, is the supreme college football conference in the land.  Clemson bested Alabama in the National Championship Game.  The ACC went 4-1 against the SEC in bowl games, and the ACC won 10 of 14 games overall against the SEC in 2016.  Five ACC teams finished the season in the top 25.

The 2017 season begins with the SEC just a tiny hair above the ACC in PiRate Ratings averages.  Early games between Alabama and Florida State, Tennessee and Georgia Tech, and Clemson and Auburn will go a long way in determining conference supremacy, and season ending games between Florida and Florida St. Georgia and Georgia Tech, and Louisville and Kentucky will seal the deal if one conference dominates the other.

This league has a little more depth this year.  It may be tougher for any team to go undefeated, as the team with the best quarterback, Louisville with Lamar Jackson, has an average at best defense.  Florida State has the next best quarterback in Deondre Francois, and the Seminoles have a nice stable of running backs.  However, there are some questions at wide receiver, and there could be depth issues in the offensive line.  Clemson still has the overall best combination of offensive and defensive lines, but the defending national champions must replace Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman, and Mike Williams on the attack side.  Figure CU to average about 10-14 fewer points per game.

While the top three in the Atlantic Division have exceptional talent but with some questions, the other four teams could all be better than last year, especially North Carolina State and Syracuse.

The Coastal Division race should be quite interesting.  Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and even Duke could challenge for the divisional flag.  The league could be just balanced enough so that no ACC team earns a Playoff bid.

Here is how the ACC Media voted in the preseason:

ACC Atlantic Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Florida St.	121	1,108	118
2	Clemson	37	1,007	35
3	Louisville	9	843	7
4	North Carolina St.	0	658	0
5	Wake Forest	0	415	0
6	Syracuse	0	362	0
7	Boston College	0	283	0
ACC Coastal Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Miami (Fla)	103	1,065	3
2	Virginia Tech	40	932	3
3	Georgia Tech	9	708	0
4	Pittsburgh	7	673	0
5	North Carolina	4	606	0
6	Duke	4	473	1
7	Virginia	0	219	0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings still show Clemson to be slightly better than Florida State in the initial ratings of the season.  However, the margin is razor thin, and we expect a lot of shuffling early in the season due to heavy schedules.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	128.4	124.6	127.5	126.8
Florida St.	126.8	124.8	126.1	125.9
Louisville	116.6	115.7	117.0	116.4
N. Carolina St.	115.2	114.5	114.9	114.9
Syracuse	110.3	108.1	109.3	109.2
Wake Forest	102.7	102.2	102.0	102.3
Boston College	102.0	102.9	101.5	102.1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	118.6	116.2	117.7	117.5
Virginia Tech	116.6	116.2	117.0	116.6
Georgia Tech	113.2	110.5	111.3	111.7
N. Carolina	109.9	108.4	108.3	108.9
Pittsburgh	108.8	108.8	108.0	108.5
Duke	106.3	105.1	104.9	105.4
Virginia	98.7	98.8	99.7	99.1
ACC Averages	112.4	111.2	111.8	111.8

Here are our unscientific won-loss predictions and bowl projections for the league.

Atlantic Coast Conference Projected Standings
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Florida St.	7-1	11-2	Peach
Clemson	6-2	10-2	Orange
Louisville	6-2	9-3	Belk
North Carolina St.	5-3	8-4	Sun
Syracuse	3-5	6-6	[Heart of Dallas]
Boston College	1-7	4-8
Wake Forest	1-7	3-9
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Miami (Fla)	6-2	10-3	Music City
Virginia Tech	6-2	10-2	Camping World
Georgia Tech	5-3	8-4	Independence
North Carolina	3-5	7-5	Military
Duke	3-5	6-6	Quick Lane
Pittsburgh	3-5	5-7
Virginia	1-7	3-9
Florida St. to win the ACC Championship Game
Notre Dame predicted to take ACC’s bid to the Pinstripe Bowl
Syracuse’s bid to Heart of Dallas Bowl is an at-large bid

Notre Dame qualifies for any ACC Bowl other than the Orange Bowl, if the Irish are within one win of the next available ACC team.  For instance, if Notre Dame goes 8-4, the Irish can leapfrog any 9-3 ACC team in an ACC Bowl.

Notre Dame can also qualify for the Orange Bowl as the replacement for the Big Ten or SEC team.

Later today: We will preview the Southeastern Conference in the afternoon (Eastern Time).  Can a West Division team dethrone Alabama?  Can any team from the West challenge for the SEC Championship?  Can more than one SEC team make this season’s playoffs?  Check back later today.

Coming Tomorrow: It is game week!  There are only five total games involving FBS teams, but it is real, and it counts.  So, we will debut our 2017 PiRate College Football Forecast.  We will show you all 130 teams ranked predictively and retrodictively, give you the spreads for the five games, and give you all of our bowl projections.

There will be no Money Line Parlay suggestions this week with so few games, but when we debut this feature next week, look for it on Friday morning.

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Sunday’s NCAA Tournament Games

Sunday, March 18, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Louisville	Michigan	4	3	6
Kentucky	Wichita St.	1	1	8
Kansas	Michigan St.	11	8	1
North Carolina	Arkansas	14	10	8
Oregon	Rhode Island	7	6	4
Baylor	USC	17	9	8
Duke	South Carolina	6	6	5
UCLA	Cincinnati	1	1	-1

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:10 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Michigan
2:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Wichita St.
5:15 PM	CBS	Kansas	vs.	Michigan St.
6:10 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Arkansas
7:10 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Rhode Island
7:45 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	USC
8:40 PM	TNT	Duke	vs.	South Carolina
9:40 PM	TBS	UCLA	vs.	Cincinnati

Morning & Afternoon: Swallow Return to Capistrano

Spring Equinox: Monday, March 20, 2017 @ 6:29 AM EDT

 

 

Red, White, and Blue Ratings for Friday’s NCAA Tournament Games

NCAA Tournament–Friday, March 17, 2017

Team	Team	Red	White	Blue
Michigan	Oklahoma St.	-1	3	1
Baylor	New Mexico St.	11	12	13
Arkansas	Seton Hall	2	1	-1
Oregon	Iona	11	12	10
Louisville	Jacksonville St.	18	18	17
SMU	USC	8	8	4
North Carolina	Texas Southern	22	20	19
Creighton	Rhode Island	4	1	2
Kansas	UC-Davis	22	19	18
Dayton	Wichita St.	-7	-5	-1
Duke	Troy	15	16	14
Cincinnati	Kansas St.	2	5	2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	1	2	-2
Kentucky	Northern Kentucky	19	18	13
South Carolina	Marquette	1	-1	1
UCLA	Kent St.	16	14	10

 

TV Schedule

Time (EDT)	Network	Team	vs.	Team
12:15 PM	CBS	Michigan	vs.	Oklahoma St.
12:40 PM	truTV	Baylor	vs.	New Mexico St.
1:30 PM	TNT	Arkansas	vs.	Seton Hall
2:00 PM	TBS	Oregon	vs.	Iona
2:45 PM	CBS	Louisville	vs.	Jacksonville St.
3:10 PM	truTV	SMU	vs.	USC
4:00 PM	TNT	North Carolina	vs.	Texas Southern
4:30 PM	TBS	Creighton	vs.	Rhode Island
6:50 PM	TNT	Kansas	vs.	UC-Davis
7:10 PM	CBS	Dayton	vs.	Wichita St.
7:20 PM	TBS	Duke	vs.	Troy
7:27 PM	truTV	Cincinnati	vs.	Kansas St.
9:20 PM	TNT	Miami (Fla.)	vs.	Michigan St.
9:40 PM	CBS	Kentucky	vs.	Northern Kentucky
9:50 PM	TBS	South Carolina	vs.	Marquette
9:57 PM	truTV	UCLA	vs.	Kent St.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For March 4-5, 2017

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, March 4, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Virginia	Pittsburgh	13	15	13
Louisville	Notre Dame	10	9	12
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	10	8	9
Syracuse	Georgia Tech	7	10	6
Clemson	Boston College	14	13	10
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest	2	3	2
North Carolina	Duke	9	7	7
SMU	Memphis	15	16	16
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	5	4	5
Oklahoma	TCU	2	2	-1
Texas	Baylor	-4	-4	-6
Oklahoma St.	Kansas	2	-1	-1
Georgetown	Villanova	-8	-9	-5
St. John’s	Providence	1	-1	-1
DePaul	Xavier	-6	-7	-9
Butler	Seton Hall	10	10	10
Marquette	Creighton	3	3	1
Rutgers	Illinois	-3	-3	-5
Ohio St.	Indiana	2	1	1
Maryland	Michigan St.	4	3	1
Colorado	California	2	-1	-3
Utah	Stanford	10	10	9
Arizona St.	Arizona	-9	-10	-11
Oregon St.	Oregon	-19	-20	-17
USC	Washington	12	12	9
UCLA	Washington St.	24	25	18
Texas A&M	Kentucky	-9	-7	-4
Tennessee	Alabama	4	3	4
Arkansas	Georgia	5	6	2
Vanderbilt	Florida	-6	-7	-3
Auburn	Missouri	10	9	7
LSU	Mississippi St.	-1	-1	1
Ole Miss	South Carolina	-2	-1	-3

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, March 5, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Connecticut	Cincinnati	-6	-7	-4
Iowa	Penn St.	6	5	5
Northwestern	Purdue	1	-4	-4
Wisconsin	Minnesota	5	9	2
Nebraska	Michigan	-4	-7	-1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Villanova
2. Gonzaga
3. North Carolina
4. Kansas
5. Kentucky
6. UCLA
7. Wichita St.
8. Purdue
9. Florida
10. West Virginia
11. Baylor
12. Duke
13. Oregon
14. Louisville
15. Saint Mary’s
16. SMU
17. Florida St.
18. Cincinnati
19. Butler
20. Virginia
21. Iowa St.
22. Oklahoma St.
23. Wisconsin
24. Arizona
25. Creighton

ACC

1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. Louisville
4. Florida St.
5. Virginia
6. Notre Dame
7. Wake Forest
8. Miami (Fla.)
9. Virginia Tech
10. Syracuse
11. Clemson
12. Georgia Tech
13. Pittsburgh
14. North Carolina St.
15. Boston College

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Iowa St.
5. Oklahoma St.
6. Texas Tech (tie)
7. Kansas St. (tie)
8. TCU
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Butler
3. Creighton
4. Marquette
5. Providence
6. Seton Hall
7. Xavier
8. Georgetown
9. St. John’s
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Purdue
2. Wisconsin
3. Maryland
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan St.
8. Iowa
9. Illinois
10. Indiana
11. Ohio St.
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Pac-12

1. Oregon
2. UCLA
3. Arizona
4. California
5. USC
6. Utah
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Georgia
6. Alabama
7. Vanderbilt
8. Ole Miss
9. Texas A&M
10. Tennessee
11. Auburn
12. Mississippi St.
13. Missouri
14. LSU

Current Bubble Teams

Top 10 Bubble Teams (IN THE DANCE)

1. VCU
2. Providence
3. Seton Hall
4. Marquette
5. Xavier
6. USC
7. Syracuse
8. Wake Forest 
9. Illinois
10. Illinois St.

Top Bubble Teams (OUT OF THE FIELD & NIT-BOUND)

1. California
2. Kansas St.
3. Rhode Island
4. Georgia
5. Houston
6. Georgia Tech
7. Vanderbilt
8. TCU
9. Utah
10. Iowa

Conference Tournament Update

America East Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Vermont	26-5	vs.	8	Maine	7-24	86-41
2	2	Stony Brook	17-12	vs.	7	Binghamton	12-19	70-60
3	3	Albany	19-12	vs.	6	Hartford	9-22	100-71
4	4	New Hampshire	19-11	vs.	5	Md.-Baltimore Co.	18-11	74-65
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Vermont	27-5	vs.	4	New Hampshire	20-11	7:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Stony Brook	18-12	vs.	3	Albany	20-12	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Saturday, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament–Higher Seed at Home
Quarterfinal Round, Monday, February 27
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Florida Gulf Coast	23-7	vs.	8	Stetson	11-20	87-57
2	2	Lipscomb	19-12	vs.	7	NJIT	11-19	97-66
3	3	North Florida	13-18	vs.	6	Jacksonville	17-14	77-74
4	4	USC-Upstate	17-14	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	13-17	78-80
Semifinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
5	1	Florida Gulf Coast	24-7	vs.	5	Kennesaw St.	14-17	74-62
6	2	Lipscomb	20-12	vs.	3	North Florida	14-18	85-91
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	1	Florida Gulf Coast	25-7	vs.	3	North Florida	15-18	3:00 PM	ESPN
Big South Conference Tournament–1st Round & Championship at Higher Seed, Middle 2 Rounds at #1 Winthrop
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Campbell	14-16	vs.	10	Presbyterian	5-24	81-62
2	8	Charleston Southern	11-18	vs.	9	Longwood	6-23	79-74
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	2	UNC-Asheville	23-8	vs.	7	Campbell	15-16	79-81
4	3	Liberty	19-12	vs.	6	Radford	13-17	52-56
5	1	Winthrop	23-6	vs.	8	Charleston Southern	12-18	92-78
6	4	Gardner-Webb	18-13	vs.	5	High Point	15-15	91-55
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3 (at Winthrop)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	6	Radford	14-17	vs.	7	Campbell	16-16	6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	1	Winthrop	24-6	vs.	4	Gardner-Webb	19-13	8:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5 (at Higher Seed)
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN
Colonial Athletic Association Tournament–Charleston, SC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Hofstra	15-16	vs.	9	Delaware	12-19	6:00 PM	CAA.tv
2	7	James Madison	9-22	vs.	10	Drexel	9-22	8:30 PM	CAA.tv
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	UNC-Wilmington	26-5	vs.				12:00 PM	Comcast SN
4	4	William & Mary	16-13	vs.	5	Elon	18-13	2:30 PM	Comcast SN
5	2	College of Charleston	23-8	vs.				6:00 PM	Comcast SN
6	3	Towson St.	19-12	vs.	6	Northeastern	15-15	8:30 PM	Comcast SN
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		2:00 PM	Comcast SN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		4:30 PM	Comcast SN
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	CBSSN
Horizon League Tournament (Motor City Madness)–Detroit
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	7	Detroit Mercy	8-22	vs.	10	Milwaukee	8-23	5:30 PM	ESPN3
2	8	Cleveland St.	9-21	vs.	9	Youngstown St.	11-20	8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	Oakland	24-7	vs.		Game 2 winner		5:30 PM	ESPN3
4	2	Valparaiso	24-7	vs.		Game 1 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	3	Green Bay	18-12	vs.	6	Illinois-Chicago	14-17	5:00 PM	ESPN3
6	4	Northern Kentucky	21-10	vs.	5	Wright St.	20-11	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:00 PM	ESPNU
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 5 winner		9:30 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament at Albany (Siena)
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Quinnipiac	10-20	vs.	9	Niagara	9-22	69-88
2	7	Canisius	17-14	vs.	10	Marist	8-23	77-73
3	6	Rider	17-14	vs.	11	Manhattan	10-21	69-68
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	1	Mounmouth	26-5	vs.	9	Niagara	10-22	7:00 PM	ESPN3
5	2	St. Peter’s	18-12	vs.	7	Canisius	18-14	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
6	3	Iona	19-12	vs.	6	Rider	18-14	7:00 PM	ESPN3
7	4	Siena	15-16	vs.	5	Fairfield	16-13	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round–Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8		Game 4 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		4:30 PM	ESPN3
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
10		Game 8 winner		vs.		Game 9 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2
Mideast Athletic Conference Tournament at Norfolk, VA (Norfolk St.)
1st Round, Day 1–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	5	Maryland-Eastern Shore	12-19	vs.	12	N. Carolina A&T	3-28	5:00 PM	ESPN3
2	6	Coppin St.	8-23	vs.	11	Howard	8-23	7:00 PM	ESPN3
1st Round, Day 2–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	8	Delaware St.	10-21	vs.	9	Bethune-Cookman	9-21	4:00 PM	ESPN3
4	7	South Carolina St.	10-19	vs.	10	Florida A&M	7-22	6:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round. Day 1, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	UNC-Central	22-8	vs.		Game 3 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
6	2	Norfolk St.	15-15	vs.		Game 4 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round. Day 2, March 9
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	3	Morgan St.	14-15	vs.		Game 2 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
8	4	Hampton	14-15	vs.		Game 1 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, March 10
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
10		Game 6 winner		vs.		Game 7 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, March 11
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
11		Game 9 winner		vs.		Game 10 winner		1:00 PM	ESPN2
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (Arch Madness) at St. Louis
1st Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	8	Evansville	15-16	vs.	9	Indiana St.	11-19	83-72
2	7	Bradley	12-19	vs.	10	Drake	7-23	67-58
Quarterfinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	Illinois St.	25-5	vs.	8	Evansville	16-16	1:00 PM	MVC TV
4	4	Southern Illinois	16-15	vs.	5	Loyola (Chi.)	18-13	3:30 PM	MVC TV
5	2	Wichita St.	27-4	vs.	7	Bradley	13-19	7:00 PM	MVC TV
6	3	Northern Iowa	14-15	vs.	6	Missouri St.	16-15	9:30 PM	MVC TV
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		3:30 PM	CBSSN
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		6:00 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		2:00 PM	CBS
Northeast Conference Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
Quarterfinal Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	1	Mount St. Mary’s	16-15	vs.	8	Sacred Heart	13-18	76-73
2	2	Long Island	20-11	vs.	7	Robert Morris	13-18	68-69
3	3	Wagner	15-13	vs.	6	Fairleigh-Dickinson	11-18	72-70
4	4	St. Francis (PA)	14-15	vs.	5	Bryant	12-19	100-78
Semifinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Mount St. Mary’s	17-15	vs.	7	Robert Morris	14-18	12 or 2 PM	MSG/FCS
6	3	Wagner	16-13	vs.	4	St. Francis (PA)	15-15	12 or 2 PM	MSG/FCS
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		11:00 AM	ESPN2
	* This Tournament Re-seeds after the quarterfinals like the NFL Playoffs
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament at Nashville
1st Round, Wednesday, March 1
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	5	Southeast Missouri	14-17	vs.	8	Tennessee St.	17-12	78-75 ot
2	6	Tennessee Tech	12-19	vs.	7	Murray St.	14-16	84-85 2ot
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	4	Jacksonville St.	17-14	vs.	5	Southeast Missouri	15-17	74-51
4	3	Morehead St.	14-15	vs.	7	Murray St.	15-16	69-75
Semifinal Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5	1	Belmont	22-5	vs.	4	Jacksonville St.	18-14	7:30 PM	ESPNU
6	2	UT-Martin	20-11	vs.	7	Murray St.	16-16	10:00 PM	ESPNU
Championship Game, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		8:00 PM	ESPN2
Patriot League Tournament–All Games at Higher Seed
1st Round, Tuesday, February 28
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
1	7	Loyola (MD.)	14-15	vs.	10	Lafayette	9-20	67-64
2	8	Army	12-18	vs.	9	American	8-21	74-58
Quarterfinal Round, Thursday, March 2
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Score
3	2	Boston U	23-8	vs.	7	Loyola (MD.)	15-15	64-60
4	3	Lehigh	19-12	vs.	6	Colgate	10-21	77-72
5	1	Bucknell	23-6	vs.	8	Army	13-18	78-62
6	4	Navy	18-13	vs.	5	Holy Cross	15-16	49-42
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7	2	Boston U	24-8	vs.	3	Lehigh	20-12	12 or 2 PM	CBSSN
8	1	Bucknell	24-6	vs.	4	Navy	19-13	12 or 2 PM	CBSSN
Championship Game, Wednesday, March 8
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:30 PM	CBSSN
Southern Conference Tournament–Asheville, NC
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Western Carolina	9-22	vs.	9	The Citadel	11-20	5:00 PM	ESPN3
2	7	Samford	17-14	vs.	10	VMI	6-23	7:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	1	UNC-Greensboro	23-8	vs.		Game 1 winner		12:00 PM	ESPN3
4	4	Chattanooga	19-11	vs.	5	Wofford	15-16	2:30 PM	ESPN3
5	2	Furman	21-10	vs.		Game 2 winner		6:00 PM	ESPN3
6	3	East Tennessee St.	24-7	vs.	6	Mercer	15-16	8:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		5:00 PM	ESPN3
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		7:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship Game, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN2
Summit League Tournament–Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinal Round–Day 1, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	1	South Dakota	21-10		8	Western Illinois	8-19	7:00 PM	ESPN3
2	2	North Dakota St.	19-10		7	IUPUI	13-17	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Quarterfinal Round–Day 2, Sunday, March 5
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	4	South Dakota St.	15-16		5	Denver	16-13	7:00 PM	ESPN3
4	3	Omaha	16-13		6	Fort Wayne	19-11	9:30 PM	ESPN3
Semifinal Round–Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
5		Game 1 winner				Game 3 winner		7:00 PM	ESPN3
6		Game 2 winner				Game 4 winner		9:30 PM	ESPN3
Championship–Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 5 winner				Game 6 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN2
West Coast Conference Tournament at Las Vegas
1st Round, Friday, March 3
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	8	Pepperdine	9-21	vs.	9	Pacific	10-21	BYUtv	9:00 PM
2	7	San Diego	13-17	vs.	10	Portland	10-21	BYUtv	11:00 PM
Quarterfinal Round, Saturday, March 4
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
3	3	BYU	21-10	vs.	6	Loyola Marymount	15-14	4:00 PM	BYUtv
4	4	Santa Clara	16-15	vs.	5	San Francisco	20-11	6:00 PM	BYUtv
5	1	Gonzaga	29-1	vs.		Game 1 winner		10:00 PM	ESPN2
6	2	Saint Mary’s	26-3	vs.		Game 2 winner		12:00 AM	ESPN2
Semifinal Round, Monday, March 6
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
7		Game 3 winner		vs.		Game 4 winner		9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
8		Game 5 winner		vs.		Game 6 winner		9 or 11:30	ESPN/ESPN2
Championship Game, Tuesday, March 7
Gm #	Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
9		Game 7 winner		vs.		Game 8 winner		9:00 PM	ESPN

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 11-12, 2017

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 11, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	12	10	11
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	-1	-2	2
Duke	Clemson	10	12	10
Louisville	Miami	14	11	13
Georgia Tech	Boston College	9	6	7
Notre Dame	Florida St.	1	4	1
West Virginia	Kansas St.	12	12	5
Baylor	TCU	9	10	13
Texas Tech	Kansas	-4	-2	-4
Oklahoma St.	Texas	15	12	11
Iowa St.	Oklahoma	12	12	11
St. John’s	Seton Hall	1	-1	-2
Georgetown	Marquette	1	2	7
DePaul	Creighton	-13	-11	-15
Xavier	Villanova	-1	-2	1
Providence	Butler	-1	-1	-2
Rutgers	Minnesota	-5	-3	-7
Illinois	Penn St.	4	5	7
Maryland	Ohio St.	8	6	6
Michigan St.	Iowa	6	8	11
Utah	Washington	14	13	15
Arizona St.	Stanford	2	2	-3
Arizona	California	8	8	7
USC	Oregon	-4	-5	-7
Florida	Texas A&M	16	17	12
Alabama	Kentucky	-8	-4	-5
Missouri	Vanderbilt	-4	-3	-7
Tennessee	Georgia	7	7	7
Ole Miss	Auburn	4	4	7
Mississippi St.	South Carolina	-5	-3	-5
LSU	Arkansas	-4	-4	-1
St. Mary’s	Gonzaga	-8	-1	-1

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 12, 2017
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-6	-7	-9
SMU	Cincinnati	5	3	3
Indiana	Michigan	4	4	8
Wisconsin	Northwestern	8	9	14
UCLA	Oregon St.	28	26	20
Colorado	Washington St.	13	14	11

PiRate Ratings Top 25

1. Gonzaga
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Virginia
5. Wisconsin
6. Louisville
7. North Carolina
8. West Virginia
9. Baylor
10. Florida St.
11. Cincinnati
12. Florida
13. Kentucky
14. St. Mary’s
15. Duke
16. Purdue
17. SMU
18. UCLA
19. Wichita St.
20. Creighton
21. Arizona
22. Maryland
23. Oregon
24. Butler
25. Dayton

ACC

1. Virginia
2. Louisville
3. North Carolina
4. Florida St.
5. Duke
6. Notre Dame
7. Wake Forest
8. Clemson
9. Syracuse
10. Virginia Tech
11. Miami
12. Georgia Tech
13. North Carolina St.
14. Pittsburgh
15. Boston College

Big 12

1. Kansas
2. West Virginia
3. Baylor
4. Oklahoma St.
5. Iowa St.
6. Kansas St.
7. TCU
8. Texas Tech
9. Oklahoma
10. Texas

Big East

1. Villanova
2. Creighton
3. Butler
4. Dayton
5. Xavier
6. Marquette
7. Seton Hall
8. Georgetown
9. Providence
10. DePaul

Big Ten

1. Wisconsin
2. Purdue
3. Maryland
4. Northwestern
5. Minnesota
6. Michigan
7. Indiana
8. Michigan St.
9. Ohio St.
10. Iowa
11. Illinois
12. Penn St.
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers

Pac-12

1. UCLA
2. Arizona
3. Oregon
4. USC
5. Utah
6. California
7. Colorado
8. Stanford
9. Arizona St.
10. Washington
11. Washington St.
12. Oregon St.

SEC

1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. South Carolina
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Arkansas
7. Vanderbilt
8. Auburn
9. Alabama
10. Ole Miss
11. Texas A&M
12. Mississippi St.
13. LSU
14. Missouri

A Great Weekend For Watching Hoops on TV

The Following Games are listed in order of the most exciting and important and not in order of tip-off time

All times given are Eastern Standard

SATURDAY

St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga  8:15 PM on ESPN

Xavier vs. Villanova  2:30 PM on Fox

Notre Dame vs. Florida St. 6:00 PM on ESPN

USC vs. Oregon  10:30 PM on Pac-12 Network

Alabama vs. Kentucky  1:00 PM on CBS

Texas Tech vs. Kansas  2:00 PM on ESPN

Princeton vs. Columbia  6:00 PM  For those that have purchased Ivy League Live Sports Access: http://www.ivyleaguedigitalnetwork.com/princeton/game/columbia-at-princeton-on-02112017

 

SUNDAY

SMU vs. Cincinnati  4:00 PM on ESPN

Virginia Tech vs. Virginia  6:30 PM on ESPNU

Indiana vs. Michigan  1:00 PM on CBS

Wisconsin vs. Northwestern  6:30 PM on Big Ten Network

 

College Football Ratings & Spreads For November 1-5, 2016

The College Football Playoff Committee doles out its first playoff ranking tomorrow, and it looks like their job became easy enough that they can come in late to the office. With losses to Baylor, West Virginia, and Nebraska, and wins by Clemson and Washington, four undefeated Power 5 Conference teams remain. Obviously, the first ranking will include Alabama, Michigan, Clemson, and Washington as its first quartet. There is some talk that Texas A&M should be in the mix, but including a one-loss SEC team over an unbeaten Washington, Michigan, or Clemson, would draw enough ire from the non-SEC football world that the committee would be barbecued in the media.

In the end, there is only one way to hold a proper playoff. The playoffs should be decided the same way they are decided in every sport that has a playoff–on the field. No committee should be needed to figure out which teams to invite. Politics should have no bearing on the process. It is obvious that if it comes down to it, a one-loss team like Ohio State, Alabama, or Clemson will always trump a one-loss team like Washington, Baylor, or Louisville.

The champions of the Power 5 conferences should receive automatic bids to an 8-team playoff. Or, the winners of the conference championship games should receive automatic bids. That would mean, until the Big 12 expanded to at least 12 teams and implemented a championship game, their conference would not receive an automatic bid. Also, no independent team could be eligible for the playoffs, so Notre Dame, BYU, Army, and U Mass would have to find a league or else never be eligible for a playoff spot.

As for the other three spots in the playoffs, take the Group of 5 and award the top conference champion overall, the sixth playoff spot. That would be Western Michigan as of now.  Of the remaining four conference champions, give them spots 7 through 10 and have them play a preliminary “play-in” round to earn the 7th and 8th spots in the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at this in action. First, the Big 12 would have to expand by at least two teams to retain their automatic bid status. For the sake of argument, let’s add Notre Dame and BYU as the 11th and 12th teams. Army and U Mass could go to Conference USA.

Imagine for a moment that these moves have occurred. Now, using what has happened so far this year, let’s say that Clemson wins the ACC, Alabama wins the SEC, Michigan wins the Big Ten, Oklahoma wins the Big 12, and Washington wins the Pac-12. Western Michigan goes 13-0 to win the MAC and become the best Group of 5 team. The remaining four Group of 5 Champions are South Florida in the AAC, Western Kentucky in CUSA, Troy in the Sun Belt, and San Diego State in the Mountain West.

In the preliminary round, #7 seed South Florida would host #10 seed Troy, while #8 seed San Diego State would host #9 seed Western Kentucky. Western Michigan would be the #6 seed; Oklahoma #5, Washington #4, Clemson #3, Michigan #2, and Alabama #1.

After the preliminary round, #1 Alabama would host the winner of the SDSU-WKU game; #2 Michigan would host the winner of the South Florida-Troy game; #3 Clemson would host #6 Western Michigan; and #4 Washington would host #5 Oklahoma.

The debate would revolve around teams like Troy and Western Kentucky getting spots in playoffs, even if they were just preliminary rounds. But, this is the same thing that happens in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, where the champion of the #31 conference tournament gets an automatic bid, while a top ten team that does not win their league’s conference tournament does not receive an automatic bid.

In the end, the NCAA will never implement such a plan, because fairness is not part of their plan. A fair profit is all that matters, so for now, the big powers will get the benefit of the doubt for financial reasons only.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.9	129.1	135.8	133.6
2	Michigan	128.7	126.4	128.7	127.9
3	Washington	128.8	121.6	128.6	126.3
4	Louisville	127.2	122.5	127.1	125.6
5	Clemson	126.7	119.5	125.6	123.9
6	LSU	124.8	119.8	124.4	123.0
7	Auburn	123.7	121.2	123.9	122.9
8	Ohio St.	121.9	121.5	122.2	121.9
9	Oklahoma	120.9	119.4	120.6	120.3
10	Virginia Tech	119.1	117.7	119.5	118.8
11	Texas A&M	117.5	115.5	117.3	116.8
12	Florida St.	119.2	112.7	118.3	116.7
13	North Carolina	118.4	112.0	118.3	116.2
14	Colorado	117.5	113.0	117.3	116.0
15	Oklahoma St.	115.2	116.2	115.0	115.5
16	USC	117.7	112.9	115.5	115.4
17	Wisconsin	115.4	113.4	116.1	115.0
18	Florida	114.7	116.6	113.2	114.8
19	Tennessee	115.5	112.7	114.7	114.3
20	Baylor	113.8	114.3	114.2	114.1
21	Pittsburgh	115.1	111.4	114.3	113.6
22	Miami	115.7	110.0	115.0	113.6
23	Western Michigan	112.9	111.8	114.6	113.1
24	Stanford	114.6	108.6	114.0	112.4
25	Penn St.	112.0	113.2	111.4	112.2
26	Nebraska	113.2	110.2	113.1	112.2
27	Ole Miss	114.3	109.2	113.0	112.2
28	Washington St.	112.4	109.5	112.2	111.4
29	West Virginia	111.8	110.8	111.3	111.3
30	Iowa	112.1	109.5	111.9	111.2
31	Notre Dame	112.7	108.8	111.3	110.9
32	Texas	110.3	111.4	109.7	110.5
33	UCLA	110.2	108.7	109.5	109.5
34	Houston	109.3	108.2	110.7	109.4
35	Utah	111.7	106.2	110.1	109.3
36	Northwestern	110.4	106.4	109.4	108.7
37	South Florida	108.8	107.0	109.3	108.4
38	Arkansas	109.9	105.2	108.0	107.7
39	BYU	109.6	104.1	109.2	107.6
40	Georgia Tech	109.2	105.3	108.1	107.5
41	Georgia	107.8	107.4	106.9	107.4
42	Kansas St.	106.6	108.9	106.5	107.3
43	Mississippi St.	107.8	106.3	106.7	106.9
44	TCU	106.5	108.0	105.6	106.7
45	Boise St.	105.7	106.9	106.7	106.4
46	Oregon	107.1	105.3	106.3	106.2
47	San Diego St.	105.6	104.2	107.6	105.8
48	Minnesota	105.8	104.7	105.3	105.3
49	Western Kentucky	105.5	102.9	106.8	105.1
50	Temple	104.6	103.9	105.0	104.5
51	Tulsa	103.4	104.8	104.1	104.1
52	North Carolina St.	104.9	102.3	104.5	103.9
53	Texas Tech	104.6	103.8	103.1	103.9
54	Michigan St.	104.5	103.9	102.8	103.7
55	Indiana	102.9	104.8	102.5	103.4
56	Virginia	104.3	101.5	103.8	103.2
57	Arizona St.	103.9	102.8	102.5	103.1
58	Maryland	102.3	104.7	100.8	102.6
59	Syracuse	104.0	100.8	102.6	102.5
60	Navy	102.6	101.7	102.4	102.3
61	Toledo	101.5	101.8	102.0	101.8
62	California	104.6	97.8	102.2	101.5
63	Duke	101.7	101.6	101.0	101.4
64	Wake Forest	101.6	100.4	102.0	101.4
65	Kentucky	101.1	102.0	100.5	101.2
66	Appalachian St.	100.4	100.7	102.4	101.2
67	Vanderbilt	101.6	98.4	100.3	100.1
68	Memphis	100.7	98.8	99.6	99.7
69	South Carolina	99.7	99.3	99.3	99.5
70	Boston College	99.9	98.8	99.4	99.4
71	Arizona	99.6	97.4	98.1	98.4
72	Iowa St.	98.6	98.2	97.9	98.2
73	Louisiana Tech	96.9	98.8	98.6	98.1
74	Missouri	97.9	97.6	97.2	97.6
75	Central Florida	95.9	97.3	96.6	96.6
76	Cincinnati	96.4	96.8	96.4	96.6
77	Middle Tennessee	95.8	96.7	96.3	96.3
78	Army	92.8	99.8	94.9	95.8
79	New Mexico	94.8	96.9	95.7	95.8
80	Central Michigan	95.0	96.9	95.4	95.8
81	Air Force	94.8	96.2	94.8	95.3
82	Troy	93.0	97.7	95.0	95.3
83	Northern Illinois	94.1	95.5	95.4	95.0
84	SMU	94.4	93.9	96.5	95.0
85	Oregon St.	96.7	92.2	95.3	94.7
86	East Carolina	94.0	95.5	94.3	94.6
87	Illinois	95.0	91.6	94.0	93.6
88	Ohio	91.3	97.1	92.0	93.5
89	Wyoming	92.2	92.3	93.2	92.6
90	Connecticut	92.4	91.3	92.0	91.9
91	Southern Mississippi	91.6	91.9	92.0	91.9
92	Arkansas St.	90.6	92.6	92.3	91.8
93	Utah St.	91.0	93.6	90.8	91.8
94	Colorado St.	90.0	91.8	90.9	90.9
95	Purdue	91.8	90.2	90.5	90.8
96	Rutgers	92.0	89.6	90.6	90.8
97	Georgia Southern	88.2	88.6	90.0	89.0
98	Kent St.	87.2	89.0	87.9	88.1
99	Miami (O)	86.8	87.7	88.2	87.6
100	Old Dominion	86.2	89.7	86.7	87.5
101	Ball St.	85.4	87.9	86.5	86.6
102	Akron	84.2	89.9	85.6	86.6
103	Tulane	84.9	88.9	85.6	86.5
104	Nevada	85.3	87.7	85.9	86.3
105	UNLV	85.1	88.2	85.2	86.2
106	South Alabama	83.5	90.1	84.8	86.1
107	Eastern Michigan	85.1	87.4	85.4	86.0
108	Hawaii	85.9	84.9	85.7	85.5
109	Georgia St.	82.7	87.4	84.6	84.9
110	UTSA	81.7	88.4	84.1	84.8
111	Marshall	82.8	86.4	83.7	84.3
112	Kansas	82.9	88.1	80.3	83.8
113	North Texas	81.7	84.8	82.5	83.0
114	Massachusetts	80.3	86.6	81.4	82.8
115	Bowling Green	82.4	82.8	82.4	82.5
116	San Jose St.	82.7	82.7	82.2	82.5
117	Idaho	79.5	84.8	81.1	81.8
118	Fresno St.	80.0	83.5	79.7	81.1
119	Florida International	79.1	83.7	79.3	80.7
120	UL-Lafayette	77.7	83.8	79.5	80.4
121	Rice	77.6	84.3	77.6	79.8
122	Buffalo	76.3	83.2	76.9	78.8
123	Florida Atlantic	74.1	78.8	77.0	76.6
124	Charlotte	73.7	79.0	74.4	75.7
125	UTEP	72.2	76.7	73.4	74.1
126	New Mexico St.	71.6	74.7	72.5	72.9
127	Texas St.	67.5	69.7	68.3	68.5
128	UL-Monroe	64.9	69.8	65.2	66.6

 

PiRate Retrodictive Rankings
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Michigan
3	Clemson
4	Louisville
5	Washington
6	Texas A&M
7	Ohio St.
8	Wisconsin
9	Western Michigan
10	Auburn
11	Nebraska
12	Florida
13	Oklahoma
14	Colorado
15	LSU
16	Washington St.
17	Penn St.
18	Virginia Tech
19	West Virginia
20	Florida St.
21	Boise St.
22	USC
23	North Carolina
24	Tennessee
25	Utah
26	Baylor
27	Houston
28	Stanford
29	South Florida
30	Oklahoma St.
31	Arkansas
32	Pittsburgh
33	Appalachian St.
34	San Diego St.
35	Tulsa
36	Troy
37	Minnesota
38	Iowa
39	Northwestern
40	BYU
41	Ole Miss
42	Temple
43	Georgia Tech
44	Kansas St.
45	Western Kentucky
46	Miami (Fla)
47	Navy
48	Kentucky
49	Wyoming
50	Toledo
51	Arizona St.
52	California
53	Texas Tech
54	UCLA
55	Oregon
56	Texas
57	Georgia
58	Maryland
59	Louisiana Tech
60	North Carolina St.
61	Indiana
62	Memphis
63	Middle Tennessee
64	Wake Forest
65	TCU
66	South Carolina
67	Central Florida
68	Vanderbilt
69	Syracuse
70	Air Force
71	Colorado St.
72	Mississippi St.
73	Southern Miss.
74	Notre Dame
75	New Mexico
76	SMU
77	Boston College
78	Ohio
79	Army
80	Oregon St.
81	Duke
82	Old Dominion
83	Central Michigan
84	Michigan St.
85	Akron
86	Georgia Southern
87	Cincinnati
88	Arizona
89	Eastern Michigan
90	East Carolina
91	Missouri
92	Idaho
93	Virginia
94	Arkansas St.
95	South Alabama
96	Utah St.
97	Illinois
98	North Texas
99	Hawaii
100	Rutgers
101	Northern Illinois
102	UTSA
103	Ball St.
104	Tulane
105	Connecticut
106	Kent St.
107	Purdue
108	Iowa St.
109	UL-Lafayette
110	Miami (O)
111	Georgia St.
112	UNLV
113	Nevada
114	San Jose St.
115	New Mexico St.
116	Marshall
117	Bowling Green
118	Charlotte
119	Massachusetts
120	UL-Monroe
121	Florida Int’l.
122	Kansas
123	Texas St.
124	Buffalo
125	UTEP
126	Rice
127	Fresno St.
128	Florida Atlantic

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	108.8	107.0	109.3	108.4
Temple	104.6	103.9	105.0	104.5
Central Florida	95.9	97.3	96.6	96.6
Cincinnati	96.4	96.8	96.4	96.6
East Carolina	94.0	95.5	94.3	94.6
Connecticut	92.4	91.3	92.0	91.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	109.3	108.2	110.7	109.4
Tulsa	103.4	104.8	104.1	104.1
Navy	102.6	101.7	102.4	102.3
Memphis	100.7	98.8	99.6	99.7
SMU	94.4	93.9	96.5	95.0
Tulane	84.9	88.9	85.6	86.5
AAC Averages	99.0	99.1	99.4	99.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	127.2	122.5	127.1	125.6
Clemson	126.7	119.5	125.6	123.9
Florida St.	119.2	112.7	118.3	116.7
North Carolina St.	104.9	102.3	104.5	103.9
Syracuse	104.0	100.8	102.6	102.5
Wake Forest	101.6	100.4	102.0	101.4
Boston College	99.9	98.8	99.4	99.4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	119.1	117.7	119.5	118.8
North Carolina	118.4	112.0	118.3	116.2
Pittsburgh	115.1	111.4	114.3	113.6
Miami	115.7	110.0	115.0	113.6
Georgia Tech	109.2	105.3	108.1	107.5
Virginia	104.3	101.5	103.8	103.2
Duke	101.7	101.6	101.0	101.4
ACC Averages	111.9	108.4	111.4	110.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.9	119.4	120.6	120.3
Oklahoma St.	115.2	116.2	115.0	115.5
Baylor	113.8	114.3	114.2	114.1
West Virginia	111.8	110.8	111.3	111.3
Texas	110.3	111.4	109.7	110.5
Kansas St.	106.6	108.9	106.5	107.3
TCU	106.5	108.0	105.6	106.7
Texas Tech	104.6	103.8	103.1	103.9
Iowa St.	98.6	98.2	97.9	98.2
Kansas	82.9	88.1	80.3	83.8
Big 12 Averages	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	128.7	126.4	128.7	127.9
Ohio St.	121.9	121.5	122.2	121.9
Penn St.	112.0	113.2	111.4	112.2
Michigan St.	104.5	103.9	102.8	103.7
Indiana	102.9	104.8	102.5	103.4
Maryland	102.3	104.7	100.8	102.6
Rutgers	92.0	89.6	90.6	90.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.4	113.4	116.1	115.0
Nebraska	113.2	110.2	113.1	112.2
Iowa	112.1	109.5	111.9	111.2
Northwestern	110.4	106.4	109.4	108.7
Minnesota	105.8	104.7	105.3	105.3
Illinois	95.0	91.6	94.0	93.6
Purdue	91.8	90.2	90.5	90.8
Big Ten Averages	107.7	106.5	107.1	107.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	105.5	102.9	106.8	105.1
Middle Tennessee	95.8	96.7	96.3	96.3
Old Dominion	86.2	89.7	86.7	87.5
Marshall	82.8	86.4	83.7	84.3
Florida International	79.1	83.7	79.3	80.7
Florida Atlantic	74.1	78.8	77.0	76.6
Charlotte	73.7	79.0	74.4	75.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	96.9	98.8	98.6	98.1
Southern Mississippi	91.6	91.9	92.0	91.9
UTSA	81.7	88.4	84.1	84.8
North Texas	81.7	84.8	82.5	83.0
Rice	77.6	84.3	77.6	79.8
UTEP	72.2	76.7	73.4	74.1
CUSA Averages	84.5	87.9	85.6	86.0
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.7	108.8	111.3	110.9
BYU	109.6	104.1	109.2	107.6
Army	92.8	99.8	94.9	95.8
Massachusetts	80.3	86.6	81.4	82.8
Indep. Averages	98.9	99.8	99.2	99.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	91.3	97.1	92.0	93.5
Kent St.	87.2	89.0	87.9	88.1
Miami (O)	86.8	87.7	88.2	87.6
Akron	84.2	89.9	85.6	86.6
Bowling Green	82.4	82.8	82.4	82.5
Buffalo	76.3	83.2	76.9	78.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	112.9	111.8	114.6	113.1
Toledo	101.5	101.8	102.0	101.8
Central Michigan	95.0	96.9	95.4	95.8
Northern Illinois	94.1	95.5	95.4	95.0
Ball St.	85.4	87.9	86.5	86.6
Eastern Michigan	85.1	87.4	85.4	86.0
MAC Averages	90.2	92.6	91.0	91.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	105.7	106.9	106.7	106.4
New Mexico	94.8	96.9	95.7	95.8
Air Force	94.8	96.2	94.8	95.3
Wyoming	92.2	92.3	93.2	92.6
Utah St.	91.0	93.6	90.8	91.8
Colorado St.	90.0	91.8	90.9	90.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	105.6	104.2	107.6	105.8
Nevada	85.3	87.7	85.9	86.3
UNLV	85.1	88.2	85.2	86.2
Hawaii	85.9	84.9	85.7	85.5
San Jose St.	82.7	82.7	82.2	82.5
Fresno St.	80.0	83.5	79.7	81.1
MWC Averages	91.1	92.5	91.5	91.7
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	128.8	121.6	128.6	126.3
Stanford	114.6	108.6	114.0	112.4
Washington St.	112.4	109.5	112.2	111.4
Oregon	107.1	105.3	106.3	106.2
California	104.6	97.8	102.2	101.5
Oregon St.	96.7	92.2	95.3	94.7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colorado	117.5	113.0	117.3	116.0
USC	117.7	112.9	115.5	115.4
UCLA	110.2	108.7	109.5	109.5
Utah	111.7	106.2	110.1	109.3
Arizona St.	103.9	102.8	102.5	103.1
Arizona	99.6	97.4	98.1	98.4
Pac-12 Averages	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Florida	114.7	116.6	113.2	114.8
Tennessee	115.5	112.7	114.7	114.3
Georgia	107.8	107.4	106.9	107.4
Kentucky	101.1	102.0	100.5	101.2
Vanderbilt	101.6	98.4	100.3	100.1
South Carolina	99.7	99.3	99.3	99.5
Missouri	97.9	97.6	97.2	97.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	135.9	129.1	135.8	133.6
LSU	124.8	119.8	124.4	123.0
Auburn	123.7	121.2	123.9	122.9
Texas A&M	117.5	115.5	117.3	116.8
Ole Miss	114.3	109.2	113.0	112.2
Arkansas	109.9	105.2	108.0	107.7
Mississippi St.	107.8	106.3	106.7	106.9
SEC Averages	112.3	110.0	111.5	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	100.4	100.7	102.4	101.2
Troy	93.0	97.7	95.0	95.3
Arkansas St.	90.6	92.6	92.3	91.8
Georgia Southern	88.2	88.6	90.0	89.0
South Alabama	83.5	90.1	84.8	86.1
Georgia St.	82.7	87.4	84.6	84.9
Idaho	79.5	84.8	81.1	81.8
UL-Lafayette	77.7	83.8	79.5	80.4
New Mexico St.	71.6	74.7	72.5	72.9
Texas St.	67.5	69.7	68.3	68.5
UL-Monroe	64.9	69.8	65.2	66.6
Sun Belt Averages	81.8	85.5	83.2	83.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.3	110.0	111.5	111.3
2	ACC	111.9	108.4	111.4	110.6
3	Pac-12	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
4	Big 12	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
5	Big Ten	107.7	106.5	107.1	107.1
6	Independents	98.9	99.8	99.2	99.3
7	AAC	99.0	99.1	99.4	99.1
8	MWC	91.1	92.5	91.5	91.7
9	MAC	90.2	92.6	91.0	91.3
10	CUSA	84.5	87.9	85.6	86.0
11	Sun Belt	81.8	85.5	83.2	83.5

 

 

This Week’s Games–November 1-5
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 1
Northern Illinois	Bowling Green	14.7	15.7	16.4
Ball St.	Western Michigan	-24.5	-20.9	-25.1
Wednesday, November 2
Akron	Toledo	-15.3	-9.9	-14.4
Thursday, November 3
Ohio U	Buffalo	18.0	16.9	18.1
Iowa St.	Oklahoma	-19.3	-18.2	-19.7
Georgia St.	Arkansas St.	-5.4	-2.7	-5.2
Colorado	UCLA	10.3	7.3	10.8
Friday, November 4
Miami (O)	Central Michigan	-5.2	-6.2	-4.2
Connecticut	Temple	-9.2	-9.6	-10.0
Boise St.	San Jose St.	26.0	27.2	27.5
Saturday, November 5
Boston College	Louisville	-24.3	-20.7	-24.7
Clemson	Syracuse	25.7	21.7	26.0
Duke	Virginia Tech	-14.4	-13.1	-15.5
North Carolina St.	Florida St.	-11.3	-7.4	-10.8
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	12.2	9.7	10.2
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	3.6	1.6	3.7
Washington St.	Arizona	15.8	15.1	17.1
USC	Oregon	13.6	10.6	12.2
California	Washington	-21.2	-20.8	-23.4
West Virginia	Kansas	31.9	25.7	34.0
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.	-5.6	-4.3	-5.5
Notre Dame (N)	Navy	10.1	7.1	8.9
Army	Air Force	1.0	6.6	3.1
Ole Miss	Georgia Southern	29.1	23.6	26.0
Mississippi St.	Texas A&M	-6.7	-6.2	-7.6
Auburn	Vanderbilt	25.1	25.8	26.6
Texas Tech	Texas	-3.2	-5.1	-4.1
Rutgers	Indiana	-8.4	-12.7	-9.4
Illinois	Michigan St.	-6.5	-9.3	-5.8
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-3.0	-5.0	-4.7
Middle Tennessee	UTSA	17.1	11.3	15.2
Wake Forest	Virginia	-0.2	1.4	0.7
Rice	Florida Atlantic	6.0	8.0	3.1
Colorado St.	Fresno St.	13.0	11.3	14.2
Southern Miss.	Charlotte	20.9	15.9	20.6
Baylor	TCU	9.8	8.8	11.1
Stanford	Oregon St.	20.9	19.4	21.7
Cincinnati	BYU	-10.2	-4.3	-9.8
Troy	Massachusetts	15.7	14.1	16.6
Arkansas	Florida	-1.8	-8.4	-2.2
Michigan	Maryland	29.4	28.7	30.9
Minnesota	Purdue	17.0	17.5	17.8
Appalachian St.	Texas St.	35.9	34.0	37.1
SMU	Memphis	-3.8	-2.4	-0.6
South Carolina	Missouri	5.0	4.7	5.1
UL-Lafayette	Idaho	0.8	2.0	1.4
UL-Monroe	South Alabama	-13.6	-18.3	-17.6
Central Florida	Tulane	14.0	14.4	14.0
Western Kentucky	Florida Int’l.	29.4	22.2	30.5
North Texas	Louisiana Tech	-12.2	-11.0	-13.1
Old Dominion	Marshall	5.9	6.2	5.5
San Diego St.	Hawaii	23.7	23.3	25.9
Penn St.	Iowa	2.9	6.7	2.5
Kentucky	Georgia	-4	-2.4	-3.4
LSU	Alabama	-8	-6.3	-8.4
Tulsa	East Carolina	12.4	12.3	12.8
Ohio St.	Nebraska	11.7	14.3	12.1
New Mexico	Nevada	12.5	12.2	12.8
Wyoming	Utah St.	4.2	1.7	5.4

(N)–Game to be played in Jacksonville, FL

FBS vs. FCS	Week 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Tennessee	Tennessee Tech	41
UTEP	Houston Baptist	16

 

Bowl Projections

The bowl outlook took a major turn this past weekend with numerous upsets bringing multiple teams into the bowl discussions.  Let’s take a look at how each conference was affected.

Group of 5 Leagues

American Athletic Conference

South Florida recovered from its loss to Temple by beating Navy at its own game.  This now opens the door in the West for Tulsa, which beat Memphis to move into position to take the West if they win out.  Because the AAC does not slot bowl teams into specific bowls, it did not change much.  Houston with two losses is out of the NY6 Bowl picture for now.  The AAC has eight bowl tie-ins but appears headed to having just seven bowl eligible teams.  However, SMU is getting better and better every week, so the Mustangs could sneak in as the eighth eligible team.  For now, we are predicting that Cincinnati will not be bowl eligible.

Conference USA

Western Kentucky should win the East with Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion earning bowl bids from this division.  The West is up for grabs, but Louisiana Tech is starting to look like the team that will emerge as the division winner.  Southern Miss. and North Texas are still alive, and UTSA is a dark horse.  We see six bowl eligible teams emerging, which is perfect, since the league has six bowl tie-ins.

Independents

BYU is going to be bowl eligible and get the Poinsettia bid allotted to the Cougars.  With Army’s upset of Wake Forest, the Black Knights should get to seven wins and become bowl eligible.  Notre Dame still looks like a team on the outside.  The Fighting Irish might need to beat USC in the season finale to get to 6-6, and for now, we do not believe they can beat the Trojans.

Mid-American Conference

Western Michigan is now in the driver’s seat for the NY6 Bowl thanks to Wyoming’s win over Boise State.  The Broncos have a rather easy November schedule and figure to play a 7-5 or even 6-6 team in the MAC title game.

The East has become quite interesting.  While Ohio has the upper hand in the race, keep an eye on Miami of Ohio.  Miami has not figured in the race in years, but the Redhawks won at Eastern Michigan Saturday to move to 3-2 in the league.  If Miami wins out, and Ohio loses to Toledo and either Central Michigan or Akron, then Miami could be the division winner with a 6-6 overall mark.

The MAC will have at least seven bowl eligible teams, and they only have five bowl tie-ins.  Because WMU for now is slotted for the Cotton Bowl, there will be one surplus team to become an at-large invitee to another bowl.

Mountain West Conference

Boise State’s loss not only knocks them well back in the NY6 Bowl pecking order, the Broncos now need Wyoming to lose twice in order to get a trip to the MWC Championship Game.  It has been awhile since the Broncos have played at home in the bowl season, but we believe they will garner another bowl even if they do not win the league.

San Diego State is all but assured to win the West Division, and the Aztecs could be the only division team to gain bowl eligibility.  Hawaii’s loss at home to New Mexico means the Rainbow Warriors are probably looking at 6-7 at best.  At 6-7, UH would have preference over the 5-7 teams trying to gain alternate status to bowls.

Sun Belt

With 11 teams and just four bowl tie-ins, the SBC usually produces an extra bowl eligible team or two.  We believe two league teams will receive at-large bids this year.  Troy and Appalachian State are already bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern in good shape.  South Alabama and either Idaho or Louisiana-Lafayette should give the league a couple of at-large candidates.

Power 5 Leagues

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville in the Atlantic and North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh in the Coastal are assured of bowls, but after that, it is a jumbled race.  For now, we believe Miami, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech will become bowl eligible, but North Carolina State, Boston College, Syracuse, and Duke will not.  We also believe Duke may fall to 4-8, taking the Blue Devils out of the 5-7 bowl sweepstakes, where they hold the APR Ace card.  Boston College has a fat APR score and could get in at 5-7.  Overall, we see nine bowl teams from this league.  Because Clemson should get a playoff spot and Louisville is safe as a NY6 Bowl team, and because there is a chance that either North Carolina or Virginia Tech could sneak into the Cotton Bowl picture, this league will not supply all its contracted bowls with teams.

Big 12 Conference

With the two undefeated teams losing this past weekend, it is almost impossible now for a team from this league to make the Playoffs.  It is the price the Big 12 pays for not expanding (and as some believe because Texas says no expansion).  As of today, we have the league champion going to the Sugar Bowl, and no other team should earn an NY6 bid.  With Texas and Texas Tech winning, this now makes a strong case for seven bowl eligible teams (TCU dropping out for now) for seven bowls.

Big Ten Conference

Can Michigan win at the Giant Horseshoe?  We believe the Wolverines are now considerably better than Ohio State, and we cannot see a West Division team staying within two touchdowns of the Maize and Blue.  Jim Harbaugh has his alma mater looking much like it did back in the Bo Schembechler 1970’s.

Should Michigan hand Ohio State that season-ending loss, and should Penn State win out, the Nittany Lions could be the Rose Bowl’s choice over a multiple loss West Division champion.

We are looking at 10 bowl eligible teams in this league, but we also believe three teams will be in the NY6, meaning the league will come up one team short for its bowl obligations.

Pac-12 Conference

With Washington’s win at Utah, we now show the Huskies going to the Palouse and beating rival Washington State in the season finale.  In the South, Colorado controls its own destiny with a favorable schedule, but they will have to beat Utah in Boulder on the final weekend.

We show UCLA, Cal, and Oregon falling short, while Arizona State recovers to gain bowl eligibility.  This leads to seven bowl eligible teams for eight spots (one playoff and seven bowls), so the Cactus Bowl would have to find another team.

Southeastern Conference

In what was an interesting turn of events this past weekend in the East Division, South Carolina upset Tennessee and Kentucky won at Missouri.  Florida now controls its own destiny in the division, but if the Gators lose to Arkansas and LSU on the road, and Kentucky beats fading Georgia and Tennessee teams, the Wildcats would be the major shocking surprise winner in the division!

Alabama plays at LSU this weekend, and we just cannot see the Tigers winning this game.  The Tide get Auburn at home, so it looks like a march to the top seed for the Saban Dynasty.

We have added South Carolina to the Bowl list this week, and with Kentucky now 99% assured of gaining bowl eligibility, that brings the SEC to 11 bowl eligible teams, which means they will supply a team for every bowl tie-in.

The 7-loss Alternate Teams

This week, we have 78 teams gaining bowl eligibility.  We have Hawaii at 6-7, so the Rainbow Warriors would be team #79.  The 80th team would thus go to the highest APR score of the 5-7 teams.  Duke would be that team if the Blue Devils can win two more times, but their schedule is set up for a hard crash, and thus we do not believe they will win five games.

Next up among the possible 5-7 teams is Vanderbilt.  If the Commodores win one of their final four games (Missouri is still to be played), it looks like they will be the 80th team in the field.  It might mean a 1,500+ mile trip out West.

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	North Texas
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Arizona St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Temple	vs.	Appy St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Miami (O)	vs.	S. Alabama
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	La. Tech	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Central Fla.	vs.	Central Mich.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Houston	vs.	Western Ky.
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Colorado St.	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Wyoming
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	Texas Tech
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	vs.	Arkansas St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	Boise St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Memphis	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	[Akron]	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	Ole Miss	vs.	[Idaho]
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	{Hawaii}	vs.	Sou. Miss.
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	[Army]	vs.	Tulsa
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Utah
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	{Vanderbilt}
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Va. Tech	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	vs.	Wash. St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Tennessee
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[Ga. Sou.]	vs.	S. Carolina
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Wake Forest	vs.	Florida
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	vs.	Arkansas
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	vs.	Stanford
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	Old Dominion	vs.	Air Force
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Georgia
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Louisville	vs.	Nebraska
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Auburn
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Kentucky
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Washington
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Michigan	vs.	Clemson
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Ohio St.	vs.	LSU
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	N. Carolina	vs.	Western Mich.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	vs.	Colorado
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	vs.	Texas A&M
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Michigan
[Team]	At-Large Selection
{Team}	At-Large Selection of projected 7-Loss Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Ratings & Spreads For September 22-24, 2016

What an incredible college football week has just passed!  We told you last week that it could be the best September slate of college football games in years, and it lived up to the hype.

Guess what?  This weekend won’t exactly be chopped liver.  There are some excellent games on tap, and more conference games will be played this week.

First, some information about you guys and dolls.  We asked you to go to our sister site at http://www.piratings.webs.com and tell us who your favorite college and NFL teams happened to be.  We have received dozens of replies so far, and a pattern has developed.

Among the colleges mentioned, a large majority of you are Big Ten fans.  The number one school mentioned so far, and by quite a large margin, is Ohio State.  Number two surprised us, as we expected that an SEC school or six would be among the top ones you fine folks follow.  No SEC team received more than three votes, and that three belongs to Florida.  Number two behind the Buckeyes was their arch-rival Michigan, and in distant third place was the other Big Ten East biggie, Michigan State.

The NFL followed suit with upper Midwest fan support.  In a close race so far, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Chicago rank one-two-three.

It could be that the PiRate Ratings have a lot of upper Midwest support.  There are ties to Ohio State in a minor way, much less than the ties to Wisconsin, but it is there.  However, we expected a lot more SEC support, and it just didn’t come.  Wherefore art thou Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, and Aggie fans?

Okay, now to get down to business.  We will obviously comment on the 3 Big Ten schools first today, and then include other games of interest that you might want to follow this week.

Ohio St.

The Buckeyes get a well-timed week off after picking up the biggest win of the NCAA season against the Sooners in Norman.  Their next two games are home contests against Rutgers and Indiana, so Urban Meyer’s team will be 5-0 when they head up to Camp Randall Stadium on October 15.

The stats are intimidating to any future opponent: 56.7 points per game to 12.3 points allowed per game; 306 yards per game rushing to just 103 allowed per game; a total yards per game average of 545 to 279; the defense has intercepted nine passes in three games; and if that isn’t enough riches, the Buckeyes have the best kicking game in the nation so far with a 50+ yard punt average and a 47+ yard net punt average to go with perfect 100% accuracy on PATs and field goals.

Michigan

The Wolverines spotted improved Colorado a quick two touchdown lead before getting down to business and posting an impressive 17-point win at the Big House.  Penn State comes to Ann Arbor this week, after the Nittany Lions held off a pesky Temple team.  The Maize and Blue defense and special teams have scored or set up more points than they have allowed with interception returns, punt returns, and three blocked kicks so far.  At one time, in 1969, Penn State’s defense and special teams scored or set up more points than the defense allowed for the entire season.  That Penn State team finished undefeated, and if this Michigan team can continue to replicate that great 1969 Penn State team, there is no reason to think the Wolverines cannot run the table–at least head to the Giant Horseshoe at 11-0.  How much would another 11-0 vs. 11-0 matchup cost to purchase a ticket on the street this time?  Prices were highly inflated in 2006, when these two teams were undefeated and ranked 1-2.

As for this week, We don’t think James Franklin’s Nittany Lions will roar much.  They might hold Michigan under 40 points, but can they score more than 17?

 

Michigan St.

The Spartans looked like a different team between game one against Furman and game two against Notre Dame.  Now MSU hosts a Wisconsin team that must have overlooked Georgia State last week, but even overlooking the Panthers, UW should have won by 30.  Sparty’s defense held Notre Dame’s rushing game at bay all night, and a repeat performance against the Badgers will mean a double-digit win.  For the record, we do not believe they will stop the UW rush like they stopped the Notre Dame running game.

Tyler O’Connor looked like a pro prospect at times against the Irish secondary.  His one interception came on a deflection, and if you remove that deflection, he had a night Connor Cook would have been proud of.  Look for MSU to win another tight game by less than a touchdown.  The last three times these schools have played, the margins were all under a TD.

Other Games of Interest

Thursday Night:

Clemson at Georgia Tech

The CU win at Auburn does not look all that impressive after Texas A&M looked better in their win at Jordan-Hare.  The narrow win over Troy could not be erased by the slaughter over the FCS school that was so unprepared to play a Power 5 team, that their kick returner handed the Tigers a touchdown by tossing it to the back judge without downing the ball.  This Clemson team has started to resemble the Florida State team of 2014.  That FSU team was considerably weaker than the 2013 champion, but they still made it to the playoffs.  We are not sure this CU team is playoff worthy, but they have time to right the ship.

Georgia Tech is 3-0 and looks like a defensive juggernaut in the process.  However, a closer look shows their defensive performance has come against three teams that would have trouble scoring in 11 on 0 practice drills.  Tech’s next three games could see a reverse in defensive performance.  Still, the Yellow Jackets are mighty tough to prepare for, and when you take away two days of preparation, it could make this a rather interesting game to watch.

Saturday

Florida at Tennessee

Butch Jones’ legacy in Knoxville is like an almost finished book.  The one major chapter of his mystery novel is the one where you find out who did it.  If Florida did it, ole Butch may not get a chance to write the sequel.

Florida has won 11 straight games in this series.  The average score in this streak has been 29-16, although the last two have both been decided by a single point.  The Gators are going to have to make due with Austin Appleby at quarterback after starter Luke Del Rio injured his knee on a cheap shot tackle by North Texas.  Appleby would become the second former Purdue quarterback to start a game for an SEC team in the last two weeks (Danny Etling @ LSU).  After replacing Del Rio, Appleby completed passes of 11 and 19 yards against the Mean Green in his four attempts.  At Purdue, Appleby had a tendency to force throws where he should not have passed, and his interception rate was  4%, about 45% higher than the QB that sent him packing from West Lafayette.

Josh Dobbs has not been what he was expected to be this year.  It looks like the coaching staff has put a governor on his scrambling and is not calling for Dobbs to keep the ball on many designed running plays.  That might change this week, as the Vols need to pull out all the stops to move the ball against Geoff Collins’ defense.

Tennessee is not without major losses due to injury, and it affects a trio of excellent starting defensive players.  All-American punt returner and very good cornerback Cameron Sutton will be out for several weeks. All-SEC weakside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin should be able to play, but he will be far from 100%, and the Vols are hurting depthwise here, as middle linebacker Darrin Kirkland and backup hybrid linebacker/safety Quarte Sapp will miss the game.

Expect a low-scoring, hard-fought game that comes down to the final few minutes.

Arkansas vs. Texas A&M in Arlington, TX (Dallas Cowboys Stadium)–The Southwest Classic

What can these two former Southwest Conference rivals do for a second encore after the last two games in Jerryworld went to overtime?  The Aggies won both games, and it would not surprise us again if the game was still to be decided late in the fourth quarter.  Arkansas has not beaten A&M since the Aggies joined the SEC.

Both teams have big wins already this year.  Arkansas won at TCU, while A&M topped UCLA, so they have been tested, and we expect a quality game from both sides.  It was hoped that Austin Allen would be able to approach his graduated brother Brandon’s stats at quarterback, but through three games, little brother has greatly surpassed expectations.  Add to this fact that running back Rawleigh Williams has done an admirable job replacing Alex Collins.  It has been the Razorback defense that has not quite lived up to expectations.

As for the Aggies, Kevin Sumlin has dealth with his critics in recent years since Johnny Manziel left College Station, and most of that criticism has come from subsequently weaker offenses year over year.  We may ask these critics why a 44-31 win is better than a 29-16 win?  This Aggie team can play defense, as most defenses led by legendary guru John Chavis tend to do.  Against Josh Rosen and UCLA, the Aggie defense produced five sacks and three interceptions.  Auburn tried to throw short, and A&M didn’t give up yards after the catch.

Arkansas will try to combine pounding the ball up the gut with vertical passes to Keon Hatcher combined with spreading the field and finding Drew Morgan, tight end Jeremy Sprinkle, and Dominique Reed.

Stanford at UCLA

The must-win games continue to allow Stanford a chance to stay in the playoff hunt.  A win over USC at home was just fine.  A win at UCLA and by a larger margin than the Bruins fell at Texas A&M, gives the Cardinal the much-needed ammunition to fight against the Clemson’s, Louisville’s, and Houston’s.  SU must run the table against a weaker Pac-12 slate, and a win at the Rose Bowl Saturday night pumps up their resume.  A loss, and it’s all up to Washington and Arizona State to carry the Pac-12 banner.

Boise St. at Oregon St.

The Broncos are now in a multi-team battle with South Florida, Houston, Memphis, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Toledo, and San Diego State for the NY6 Bowl Bid.  For that matter, throw in a surprising Army team into this mix and don’t eliminate the other two service academies just yet.

This game is Boise’s best resume builder for the rest of the season, even though the Beavers are at the bottom of the Pac-12.  It is almost required that BSU wins this game by at least 17 points, or they might have to be the last remaining undefeated team in December.

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings–Predictive
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	131.1	123.6	130.9	128.5
2	Louisville	127.9	121.7	128.1	125.9
3	Ohio St.	122.9	122.2	124.4	123.2
4	LSU	124.0	118.3	123.0	121.8
5	Michigan	121.9	119.8	122.5	121.4
6	Tennessee	121.8	117.1	121.8	120.2
7	Oklahoma	120.0	117.3	119.9	119.1
8	Clemson	122.2	113.9	120.7	118.9
9	Stanford	121.4	114.2	120.3	118.6
10	Washington	121.0	113.2	121.1	118.4
11	Miami	120.1	112.8	120.0	117.6
12	Houston	115.5	113.6	117.7	115.6
13	Oklahoma St.	115.3	116.3	115.1	115.6
14	Florida St.	117.9	110.6	116.8	115.1
15	North Carolina	117.2	110.5	116.9	114.9
16	Virginia Tech	114.5	114.1	114.8	114.5
17	Texas A&M	114.8	113.8	114.8	114.5
18	Pittsburgh	115.9	111.4	115.0	114.1
19	Iowa	115.1	112.0	114.8	114.0
20	Auburn	113.9	112.4	113.8	113.4
21	Mississippi St.	114.4	111.7	113.7	113.3
22	Notre Dame	114.9	111.2	113.6	113.2
23	Florida	112.6	116.3	110.8	113.2
24	Michigan St.	113.5	112.5	111.7	112.6
25	Texas	112.1	113.6	111.2	112.3
26	TCU	111.9	113.5	111.5	112.3
27	USC	114.3	109.9	111.6	111.9
28	Oregon	112.3	111.0	111.5	111.6
29	Arkansas	113.7	108.8	111.0	111.2
30	South Florida	111.6	109.0	112.8	111.1
31	Ole Miss	113.6	107.1	112.4	111.0
32	Georgia	111.0	111.1	110.9	111.0
33	UCLA	111.4	110.4	111.0	110.9
34	Baylor	110.4	110.5	111.5	110.8
35	Nebraska	111.8	108.4	111.9	110.7
36	Wisconsin	111.1	109.0	111.7	110.6
37	Georgia Tech	111.0	107.2	110.4	109.5
38	Boise St.	108.0	109.4	110.3	109.2
39	Colorado	110.1	105.6	110.6	108.8
40	Utah	110.8	105.1	108.7	108.2
41	Kansas St.	107.2	110.2	107.1	108.2
42	BYU	110.3	103.6	109.7	107.9
43	Penn St.	107.2	109.0	105.9	107.4
44	Arizona St.	107.5	108.1	106.3	107.3
45	West Virginia	107.2	106.6	106.8	106.9
46	Western Michigan	106.8	104.8	108.6	106.7
47	Washington St.	107.6	104.8	107.5	106.7
48	North Carolina St.	106.9	104.7	106.3	106.0
49	San Diego St.	105.8	102.9	108.2	105.7
50	Minnesota	105.1	103.1	104.8	104.3
51	Central Michigan	103.0	105.7	104.2	104.3
52	Northwestern	106.4	101.2	104.8	104.1
53	Texas Tech	105.5	103.3	103.4	104.1
54	Toledo	104.2	102.8	105.2	104.1
55	Missouri	104.1	103.3	103.9	103.8
56	Indiana	101.8	106.3	101.4	103.2
57	Arizona	104.3	102.0	103.1	103.1
58	Cincinnati	101.9	102.5	102.6	102.4
59	Maryland	101.4	105.0	99.2	101.9
60	Memphis	103.7	99.6	102.0	101.8
61	California	105.0	96.6	102.7	101.4
62	Air Force	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	101.8	99.5	100.9	100.8
64	Tulsa	99.7	102.0	100.4	100.7
65	Vanderbilt	102.5	98.3	101.0	100.6
66	South Carolina	100.9	99.9	100.4	100.4
67	Boston College	100.5	99.5	100.0	100.0
68	Temple	99.9	99.6	100.3	100.0
69	Western Kentucky	100.8	96.4	102.0	99.7
70	Syracuse	101.4	97.6	99.2	99.4
71	Virginia	100.4	97.4	99.7	99.2
72	Duke	99.0	99.8	97.3	98.7
73	Navy	98.8	98.7	98.3	98.6
74	Appalachian St.	97.7	96.4	99.8	98.0
75	Army	93.8	102.0	97.1	97.6
76	Connecticut	97.5	95.3	97.7	96.9
77	Rutgers	98.0	95.5	96.4	96.7
78	Purdue	97.6	95.2	96.6	96.5
79	Illinois	97.6	94.3	96.6	96.2
80	East Carolina	95.1	97.2	95.5	95.9
81	Oregon St.	98.4	93.6	95.8	95.9
82	Kentucky	94.9	97.5	93.6	95.3
83	Ohio	91.5	100.1	92.5	94.7
84	Utah St.	93.9	96.7	93.5	94.7
85	Middle Tennessee	94.0	95.3	94.5	94.6
86	Iowa St.	95.0	94.7	93.8	94.5
87	Northern Illinois	93.7	94.9	94.4	94.3
88	Southern Mississippi	93.8	93.7	94.8	94.1
89	New Mexico	92.2	95.2	93.0	93.5
90	Nevada	91.6	95.1	92.8	93.2
91	SMU	92.6	91.8	91.9	92.1
92	Georgia Southern	91.3	91.3	93.6	92.1
93	UNLV	89.8	94.2	89.9	91.3
94	Troy	88.6	93.6	90.5	90.9
95	Louisiana Tech	89.8	92.0	90.9	90.9
96	Marshall	88.7	93.1	90.5	90.8
97	Arkansas St.	88.7	90.7	90.2	89.9
98	San Jose St.	89.8	89.8	90.0	89.9
99	Akron	86.7	93.1	88.1	89.3
100	Bowling Green	89.7	88.5	89.1	89.1
101	Central Florida	88.2	90.6	88.2	89.0
102	Colorado St.	86.0	88.7	86.5	87.1
103	Ball St.	85.9	87.9	86.8	86.9
104	Kansas	85.0	92.5	82.3	86.6
105	Tulane	85.5	88.6	85.7	86.6
106	Old Dominion	85.4	88.3	85.7	86.5
107	Kent St.	84.1	85.8	84.3	84.8
108	Rice	81.8	89.6	81.8	84.4
109	Miami (O)	83.6	84.4	84.7	84.2
110	Wyoming	83.9	83.6	84.1	83.9
111	Georgia St.	81.5	86.6	83.2	83.8
112	Florida Atlantic	81.7	85.1	83.3	83.4
113	UTSA	79.6	87.5	82.1	83.1
114	South Alabama	80.0	87.6	81.4	83.0
115	Florida International	80.2	87.1	80.9	82.7
116	Massachusetts	79.5	87.5	81.0	82.7
117	Eastern Michigan	79.9	85.1	80.8	81.9
118	Fresno St.	80.5	84.6	80.1	81.7
119	Buffalo	77.8	86.6	79.0	81.2
120	UL-Lafayette	75.8	84.4	77.7	79.3
121	Idaho	76.0	81.8	77.3	78.4
122	New Mexico St.	75.4	78.0	76.2	76.5
123	Hawaii	77.1	75.8	76.2	76.4
124	North Texas	74.6	77.0	74.6	75.4
125	UTEP	72.3	76.7	73.8	74.3
126	Charlotte	70.5	77.7	71.6	73.3
127	Texas St.	71.6	72.7	72.8	72.4
128	UL-Monroe	70.1	75.2	70.7	72.0

 

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Ohio St.
3	Clemson
4	Houston
5	Michigan
6	Tennessee
7	Stanford
8	Washington
9	Louisville
10	Arkansas
11	Texas A&M
12	Wisconsin
13	Baylor
14	LSU
15	Florida St.
16	Georgia
17	Michigan St.
18	Utah
19	Florida
20	Oklahoma
21	Nebraska
22	Miami (Fla)
23	San Diego St.
24	Ole Miss
25	South Florida
26	Toledo
27	Western Michigan
28	North Carolina
29	Iowa
30	Oregon
31	Boise St.
32	West Virginia
33	TCU
34	Navy
35	UCLA
36	Central Michigan
37	Notre Dame
38	Arizona St.
39	Oklahoma St.
40	Virginia Tech
41	Memphis
42	California
43	USC
44	Georgia Tech
45	Western Kentucky
46	Auburn
47	Pittsburgh
48	Georgia Southern
49	Texas
50	Minnesota
51	Texas Tech
52	Colorado
53	Penn St.
54	BYU
55	Kansas St.
56	Air Force
57	Indiana
58	Washington St.
59	Mississippi St.
60	Maryland
61	Wake Forest
62	North Carolina St.
63	Cincinnati
64	Army
65	South Carolina
66	Arizona
67	Tulsa
68	Akron
69	Missouri
70	Utah St.
71	Appalachian St.
72	Northwestern
73	East Carolina
74	Troy
75	Southern Miss.
76	Temple
77	Marshall
78	Louisiana Tech
79	Nevada
80	Colorado St.
81	Vanderbilt
82	Middle Tennessee
83	Rutgers
84	Connecticut
85	Ohio
86	Duke
87	Bowling Green
88	Ball St.
89	SMU
90	Kentucky
91	Arkansas St.
92	Boston College
93	Syracuse
94	Illinois
95	Texas St.
96	Purdue
97	Oregon St.
98	San Jose St.
99	Wyoming
100	UL-Lafayette
101	Virginia
102	UTEP
103	Idaho
104	South Alabama
105	Northern Illinois
106	Tulane
107	New Mexico
108	Central Florida
109	Fresno St.
110	Iowa St.
111	UNLV
112	Old Dominion
113	Florida Atlantic
114	Rice
115	New Mexico St.
116	Kansas
117	Georgia St.
118	Massachusetts
119	UTSA
120	Eastern Michigan
121	Kent St.
122	Hawaii
123	UL-Monroe
124	Miami (O)
125	Buffalo
126	Florida Int’l.
127	Charlotte
128	North Texas

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	111.6	109.0	112.8	111.1
Cincinnati	101.9	102.5	102.6	102.4
Temple	99.9	99.6	100.3	100.0
Connecticut	97.5	95.3	97.7	96.9
East Carolina	95.1	97.2	95.5	95.9
Central Florida	88.2	90.6	88.2	89.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	115.5	113.6	117.7	115.6
Memphis	103.7	99.6	102.0	101.8
Tulsa	99.7	102.0	100.4	100.7
Navy	98.8	98.7	98.3	98.6
SMU	92.6	91.8	91.9	92.1
Tulane	85.5	88.6	85.7	86.6
AAC Averages	99.2	99.1	99.4	99.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	127.9	121.7	128.1	125.9
Clemson	122.2	113.9	120.7	118.9
Florida St.	117.9	110.6	116.8	115.1
North Carolina St.	106.9	104.7	106.3	106.0
Wake Forest	101.8	99.5	100.9	100.8
Boston College	100.5	99.5	100.0	100.0
Syracuse	101.4	97.6	99.2	99.4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	120.1	112.8	120.0	117.6
North Carolina	117.2	110.5	116.9	114.9
Virginia Tech	114.5	114.1	114.8	114.5
Pittsburgh	115.9	111.4	115.0	114.1
Georgia Tech	111.0	107.2	110.4	109.5
Virginia	100.4	97.4	99.7	99.2
Duke	99.0	99.8	97.3	98.7
ACC Averages	111.2	107.2	110.4	109.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.0	117.3	119.9	119.1
Oklahoma St.	115.3	116.3	115.1	115.6
Texas	112.1	113.6	111.2	112.3
TCU	111.9	113.5	111.5	112.3
Baylor	110.4	110.5	111.5	110.8
Kansas St.	107.2	110.2	107.1	108.2
West Virginia	107.2	106.6	106.8	106.9
Texas Tech	105.5	103.3	103.4	104.1
Iowa St.	95.0	94.7	93.8	94.5
Kansas	85.0	92.5	82.3	86.6
Big 12 Averages	107.0	107.9	106.3	107.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	122.9	122.2	124.4	123.2
Michigan	121.9	119.8	122.5	121.4
Michigan St.	113.5	112.5	111.7	112.6
Penn St.	107.2	109.0	105.9	107.4
Indiana	101.8	106.3	101.4	103.2
Maryland	101.4	105.0	99.2	101.9
Rutgers	98.0	95.5	96.4	96.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	115.1	112.0	114.8	114.0
Nebraska	111.8	108.4	111.9	110.7
Wisconsin	111.1	109.0	111.7	110.6
Minnesota	105.1	103.1	104.8	104.3
Northwestern	106.4	101.2	104.8	104.1
Purdue	97.6	95.2	96.6	96.5
Illinois	97.6	94.3	96.6	96.2
Big Ten Averages	108.0	106.7	107.3	107.3
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	100.8	96.4	102.0	99.7
Middle Tennessee	94.0	95.3	94.5	94.6
Marshall	88.7	93.1	90.5	90.8
Old Dominion	85.4	88.3	85.7	86.5
Florida Atlantic	81.7	85.1	83.3	83.4
Florida International	80.2	87.1	80.9	82.7
Charlotte	70.5	77.7	71.6	73.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Mississippi	93.8	93.7	94.8	94.1
Louisiana Tech	89.8	92.0	90.9	90.9
Rice	81.8	89.6	81.8	84.4
UTSA	79.6	87.5	82.1	83.1
North Texas	74.6	77.0	74.6	75.4
UTEP	72.3	76.7	73.8	74.3
CUSA Averages	84.1	87.7	85.1	85.6
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	114.9	111.2	113.6	113.2
BYU	110.3	103.6	109.7	107.9
Army	93.8	102.0	97.1	97.6
Massachusetts	79.5	87.5	81.0	82.7
Independents Averages	99.6	101.1	100.4	100.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	91.5	100.1	92.5	94.7
Akron	86.7	93.1	88.1	89.3
Bowling Green	89.7	88.5	89.1	89.1
Kent St.	84.1	85.8	84.3	84.8
Miami (O)	83.6	84.4	84.7	84.2
Buffalo	77.8	86.6	79.0	81.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	106.8	104.8	108.6	106.7
Central Michigan	103.0	105.7	104.2	104.3
Toledo	104.2	102.8	105.2	104.1
Northern Illinois	93.7	94.9	94.4	94.3
Ball St.	85.9	87.9	86.8	86.9
Eastern Michigan	79.9	85.1	80.8	81.9
MAC Averages	90.6	93.3	91.5	91.8
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	108.0	109.4	110.3	109.2
Air Force	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
Utah St.	93.9	96.7	93.5	94.7
New Mexico	92.2	95.2	93.0	93.5
Colorado St.	86.0	88.7	86.5	87.1
Wyoming	83.9	83.6	84.1	83.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	105.8	102.9	108.2	105.7
Nevada	91.6	95.1	92.8	93.2
UNLV	89.8	94.2	89.9	91.3
San Jose St.	89.8	89.8	90.0	89.9
Fresno St.	80.5	84.6	80.1	81.7
Hawaii	77.1	75.8	76.2	76.4
MWC Averages	91.6	93.2	92.2	92.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	121.4	114.2	120.3	118.6
Washington	121.0	113.2	121.1	118.4
Oregon	112.3	111.0	111.5	111.6
Washington St.	107.6	104.8	107.5	106.7
California	105.0	96.6	102.7	101.4
Oregon St.	98.4	93.6	95.8	95.9
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
USC	114.3	109.9	111.6	111.9
UCLA	111.4	110.4	111.0	110.9
Colorado	110.1	105.6	110.6	108.8
Utah	110.8	105.1	108.7	108.2
Arizona St.	107.5	108.1	106.3	107.3
Arizona	104.3	102.0	103.1	103.1
Pac-12 Averages	110.3	106.2	109.2	108.6
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	121.8	117.1	121.8	120.2
Florida	112.6	116.3	110.8	113.2
Georgia	111.0	111.1	110.9	111.0
Missouri	104.1	103.3	103.9	103.8
Vanderbilt	102.5	98.3	101.0	100.6
South Carolina	100.9	99.9	100.4	100.4
Kentucky	94.9	97.5	93.6	95.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.1	123.6	130.9	128.5
LSU	124.0	118.3	123.0	121.8
Texas A&M	114.8	113.8	114.8	114.5
Auburn	113.9	112.4	113.8	113.4
Mississippi St.	114.4	111.7	113.7	113.3
Arkansas	113.7	108.8	111.0	111.2
Ole Miss	113.6	107.1	112.4	111.0
SEC Averages	112.4	110.0	111.6	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.7	96.4	99.8	98.0
Georgia Southern	91.3	91.3	93.6	92.1
Troy	88.6	93.6	90.5	90.9
Arkansas St.	88.7	90.7	90.2	89.9
Georgia St.	81.5	86.6	83.2	83.8
South Alabama	80.0	87.6	81.4	83.0
UL-Lafayette	75.8	84.4	77.7	79.3
Idaho	76.0	81.8	77.3	78.4
New Mexico St.	75.4	78.0	76.2	76.5
Texas St.	71.6	72.7	72.8	72.4
UL-Monroe	70.1	75.2	70.7	72.0
Sun Belt Averages	81.5	85.3	83.0	83.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.4	110.0	111.6	111.3
2	ACC	111.2	107.2	110.4	109.6
3	Pac-12	110.3	106.2	109.2	108.6
4	Big Ten	108.0	106.7	107.3	107.3
5	Big 12	107.0	107.9	106.3	107.0
6	Independents	99.6	101.1	100.4	100.4
7	AAC	99.2	99.1	99.4	99.2
8	MWC	91.6	93.2	92.2	92.3
9	MAC	90.6	93.3	91.5	91.8
10	CUSA	84.1	87.7	85.1	85.6
11	Sun Belt	81.5	85.3	83.0	83.3

This Week’s Spreads

Thursday, September 22		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Tech	Clemson	-8.2	-3.7	-7.3
Friday, September 23		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Eastern Michigan	Wyoming	-1.0	4.5	-0.3
Utah	USC	-0.5	-1.8	0.1
Saturday, September 24		PiRate	Mean	Bias
Akron	Appalachian St.	-8.0	-0.3	-8.7
Buffalo	Army	-14.0	-13.4	-16.1
Cincinnati	Miami (O)	20.8	20.6	20.4
Connecticut	Syracuse	-1.9	-0.3	0.5
Indiana	Wake Forest	3.0	9.8	3.5
Kentucky	South Carolina	-3.0	0.6	-3.8
Michigan	Penn St.	17.7	13.8	19.6
Michigan St.	Wisconsin	5.4	6.5	3.0
North Carolina	Pittsburgh	4.3	2.1	4.9
Purdue	Nevada	9.0	3.1	6.8
South Florida	Florida St.	-3.8	0.9	-1.5
Temple	Charlotte	31.9	24.4	31.2
Tennessee	Florida	12.2	3.8	14.0
Virginia	Central Michigan	0.4	-5.3	-1.5
Virginia Tech	East Carolina	22.4	19.9	22.3
West Virginia (N)	BYU	-0.1	6.0	0.1
Western Michigan	Georgia Southern	18.5	16.5	18.0
Iowa St.	San Jose St.	8.2	7.9	6.8
Old Dominion	UTSA	8.3	3.3	6.1
Rutgers	Iowa	-14.1	-13.5	-15.4
Alabama	Kent St.	50.0	40.8	49.6
Auburn	LSU	-7.1	-2.9	-6.2
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	-1.9	-2.8	-0.6
Minnesota	Colorado St.	22.1	17.4	21.3
Ole Miss	Georgia	5.6	-1.0	4.5
Texas A&M (N)	Arkansas	1.1	5.0	3.8
Tulane	UL-Lafayette	11.7	6.2	10.0
Memphis	Bowling Green	17.0	14.1	15.9
Troy	New Mexico St.	16.2	18.6	17.3
Utah St.	Air Force	-4.0	-1.6	-4.9
Arizona	Washington	-13.7	-8.2	-15.0
Arizona St.	California	5.5	14.5	6.6
Oregon	Colorado	5.2	8.4	3.9
Oregon St.	Boise St.	-6.6	-12.8	-11.5
UCLA	Stanford	-7.0	-0.8	-6.3
Massachusetts	Mississippi St.	-32.4	-21.7	-30.2
Notre Dame	Duke	18.9	14.4	19.3
Western Kentucky	Vanderbilt	1.3	1.1	4.0
Fresno St.	Tulsa	-16.2	-14.4	-17.3
Florida Atlantic	Ball St.	-1.2	0.2	-0.5
Rice	North Texas	9.7	15.1	9.7
Texas St.	Houston	-41.9	-38.9	-42.9
Florida Int’l.	Central Florida	-6.0	-1.5	-5.3
Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech	6.7	5.8	6.1
Northwestern	Nebraska	-2.4	-4.2	-4.1
Marshall	Louisville	-36.4	-26.1	-35.1
SMU	TCU	-17.3	-19.7	-17.6
UTEP	Southern Miss.	-18.5	-14.0	-18.0
UNLV	Idaho	16.8	15.4	15.6

FBS vs. FCS	Week 4
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Boston College	Wagner	36
Ohio	Gardner-Webb	30
Missouri	Delaware St.	45
South Alabama	Nicholls St.	19
Arkansas St.	Central Arkansas	21
Northern Illinois	Western Illinois	13
Kansas St.	Missouri St.	42

 

 

 

2016 Atlantic Coast Conference Football Preview

Just five seasons ago, the old Big East Conference could make an arguable case that their league was more powerful than the Atlantic Coast Conference. No ACC Team made the final top 20 in the AP Poll that year. Conference champion Clemson fell to Big East Champion West Virginia 70-33 in the Orange Bowl.

There was talk among some that the Big East should be the fifth power conference, as the ACC had not enjoyed a powerful team that competed for a national champion for the past 11 seasons.

It started with Clemson and Florida State becoming strong once again, but it did not end there. North Carolina and Georgia Tech challenged for top 10 finishes. Louisville and Pittsburgh joined the league bringing quality football. Duke, long the doormat, enjoyed a resurgence not seen in Durham for more than 50 years.

Now, the ACC begins the season as the PiRate Ratings’ number two conference. The difference between number two and number five is small, but it is a first for this league. With quality teams from top to near bottom, this league should produce several quality bowl-eligible teams this year, and if the ball bounces right for one team, which could be any of four or five in this league, it would not be surprising to see another Playoff representative, making it three for three.

In the past three seasons, Florida State won the national title, then the Seminoles lost to Oregon in the semifinals of the NCAA Playoffs, and last year, Clemson handily defeated Oklahoma before falling in a great final to Alabama. Tallying 40 points and more than 500 yards against Alabama is a rarity about as frequently seen as Sir Edmund Halley’s Comet.

2016 looks to be another big season for this league. Three teams in the Atlantic Division have the talent to run the table and earn a playoff spot, but because there are three, more than likely, they will beat each other with Clemson playing at Florida State, Florida State playing at Louisville, and Louisville playing at Clemson.

Boston College and North Carolina State have better talent this season than last, but it will be hard for either team to steal a victory over the big three. The Eagles must play the Wolfpack in Raleigh on Homecoming, so NCSU has a leg up for the four-spot.

Syracuse begins anew with famed offensive wizard Dino Babers coming to the Carrier Dome from Bowling Green. He inherits a squad not ready to speed up the game and average more than 80 scrimmage plays per game. The Orangemen averaged 20 fewer plays per game than that last year, and the talent is not there for Syracuse to spread the field and run and throw like Baylor.

Wake Forest may be a touchdown better team this year than they were last year, and third-year head coach, and predeccesor to Babers at Bowling Green, Dave Clawson should see his Demon Deacons compete for bowl eligibility. We think the Deacs will come up a game or two short, but opponents will not consider playing WF as a breather game. Florida State and Louisville almost fell last year, and we believe some higher-rated team will go down in 2016. There are six or seven winnable games, so Clawson’s crew could get a 13th game in December.

The Coastal Division could be a four or five-team race this year. Pittsburgh begins the season as the highest ranked team in the division, but the Panthers’ schedule is unfavorable, and depth issues could become a concern quite early. Pitt hosts Penn State in week two and then plays at Oklahoma State and North Carolina on the road the following two weeks. Then, beggining October 27, the Panthers host Virginia Tech and play back-to-back road games against Miami and Clemson. We believe that the highest rated Coastal team could actually end up in fourth place in the standings.

The three teams that could finish ahead of Pitt are North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Miami. Of the trio, Miami has the most favorable schedule for tiebreaking purposes. We expect the Tar Heels, Hokies, and Hurricanes to possibly finish in a three-way tie for first, as none of the top four teams are solid enough to run the table.

Georgia Tech and Duke are headed in opposite directions this year from last year, but not by a lot. The Yellow Jackets are a dark horse team this year after finishing 3-9 last year while losing pretty. Close losses to Notre Dame, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Georgia made the Yellow Jackets a 9-3 team with just a tad more talent and fewer turnovers. With an experienced quarterback returning to run the spread option offense, and with power and speed in the skill positions, look for the Techsters to engineer a much better offense this season, adding 5-7 points per game to their average. A potentially porous defense may be the only thing keeping Coach Paul Johnson’s team from competing for the division flag, something Tech won just two seasons ago.

Coach David Cutcliffe deserves a lot of credit for guiding Duke to four consecutive bowl games and three consecutive winning seasons. The last time the Blue Devils finished with three consecutive winning seasons was 1961-62-63. This year, the Blue Devils have a lot of talent to replace on both sides of the ball, but there is still enough talent to contend for a fifth consecutive bowl eligible season. At this point, we think they will come up a bit short.

Virginia begins a new philosophy with first year head coach Bronco Mendenhall. The former BYU head coach brings a history of winning with whatever talent he has available. Mendenhall has won with a predominant passing game and with a three yards and cloud of dust running team. Mendenhall is a defensive coach by trade, so he brought along former East Carolina coach Ruffin McNeal to run the Cavaliers’ offense. Look for UVa to be more exciting this year, but the record may be about the same.

Here is how the ACC Media selected the order of finish for this season.

#	Atlantic Division	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Clemson	148	1,293	144
2	Florida St.	42	1,176	39
3	Louisville	1	961	1
4	North Carolina St.	0	704
5	Boston College	0	441
6	Syracuse	0	426
7	Wake Forest	0	347
#	Coastal Division	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	North Carolina	121	1,238	7
2	Miami (Fla)	50	1,108
3	Pittsburgh	14	859
4	Virginia Tech	3	697
5	Duke	2	597
6	Georgia Tech	1	588
7	Virginia	0	261

Here are the initial PiRate Ratings for the ACC

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	126.8	116.4	125.7	123.0
Florida St.	122.9	115.4	121.9	120.1
Louisville	118.6	111.8	118.0	116.1
North Carolina St.	108.0	104.7	107.6	106.8
Boston College	105.1	103.6	104.9	104.5
Syracuse	105.2	101.0	103.1	103.1
Wake Forest	102.3	99.2	101.5	101.0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	117.1	111.7	116.4	115.1
North Carolina	117.4	109.2	117.1	114.6
Miami	116.6	108.0	115.9	113.5
Virginia Tech	111.0	110.8	111.5	111.1
Georgia Tech	108.1	104.2	107.4	106.6
Virginia	104.4	101.2	103.8	103.1
Duke	99.4	100.7	98.0	99.4
ACC Averages	111.6	107.0	110.9	109.9

The PiRate Ratings are meant to be used only to predict the outcomes of the next week of games, and are not best used to predict beyond that point. Because we use algorithms that include automatic adjustments by each team based on depth and experience, two different teams can win by the exact score we predict, and their new ratings might change differently.
Thus, using our ratings to predict won-loss records and bowl projections is a bit comical, but then we all need some laughs every now and then. So, laugh away at our projected standings and bowls.

Atlantic Coast Conference Projected Standings
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Florida St.	7-1	12-1 *	NY6–Orange
Clemson	7-1	11-1	NY6–Cotton
Louisville	6-2	10-2	Russell Athletic
North Carolina St.	4-4	7-5	Military
Boston College	2-6	6-6	Quick Lane
Wake Forest	2-6	5-7
Syracuse	1-7	3-9
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Miami (Fla)	6-2	9-4	Belk
North Carolina	6-2	10-2	Taxslayer
Virginia Tech	6-2	8-4	Pinstripe
Pittsburgh	5-3	8-4	Sun
Georgia Tech	3-5	6-6	Independence
Duke	2-6	4-8
Virginia	0-8	3-9

Coming Tomorrow–It has been said that there are three equally tough conferences in American Football–the AFC, the NFC, and the SEC.  Once again, the Southeastern Conference begins the year as the clear-cut best league in college football, and three teams have legitimate National Championship aspirations.

 

Also Coming Tomorrow–Our updated ratings and selections for week one of the college football season–all one game.  California and Hawaii kick off the college season Friday night in Australia (Saturday Australia Time).  Then, one week from Thursday, the season begins in earnest.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Picks For February 6-7, 2016

Breaking News: The University of Louisville has self-imposed a ban on the postseason for this year.  This means one extra bubble team just benefitted greatly.

 

Here are this weekend’s picks from the top 6 conferences.

 

Remember:

Red= An algorithm based 100% on the Four Factors

White= An algorithm combining the Four Factors and a Least Squares formula on who beat who where and when

Blue= A 100% ratings’ based algorithm concentrating on scoring margin and strength of schedule

All ratings rounded to nearest whole number except when that number is 0.  Then, even if the rating is 1/1000 of a point different, the team 1/1000 of a point better is listed as a 1-point favorite.

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 6, 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Pittsburgh	Virginia	-2	1	1
Wake Forest	Florida St.	-4	-5	-3
Louisville	Boston College	24	26	19
Duke	North Carolina St.	12	12	10
Virginia Tech	Clemson	1	1	-1
Notre Dame	North Carolina	-3	-1	-5
TCU	Kansas	-10	-10	-12
Oklahoma St.	Iowa St.	-4	-4	1
Texas	Texas Tech	7	6	8
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	-7	-3	-7
West Virginia	Baylor	8	8	10
Xavier	Marquette	15	14	12
Creighton	Depaul	12	15	17
Providence	Villanova	-4	-2	-5
St. John’s	Butler	-11	-14	-8
Seton Hall	Georgetown	6	16	9
Michigan	Michigan St.	-3	-3	-5
Nebraska	Rutgers	16	17	14
Maryland	Purdue	5	5	6
Penn St.	Indiana	-10	-24	-15
California	Stanford	8	8	7
Washington	Arizona	-3	-2	-9
Washington St.	Arizona St.	-3	-5	-3
Oregon St.	Colorado	2	-1	-1
Alabama	Missouri	11	10	10
Kentucky	Florida	6	4	7
Texas A&M	South Carolina	9	7	10
Georgia	Auburn	10	13	7
LSU	Mississippi St.	8	9	14
Arkansas	Tennessee	7	7	8
Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	-2	-3	2

 

Games Schedule for:	Sunday, February 7 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fl.)	-3	-2	-5
Illinois	Iowa	-13	-11	-16
Oregon	Utah	11	9	12