The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 8, 2019

2019 Conference USA Football Preview

Welcome to the 2019-2020 College Football season on the SS Touchdown, your favorite PiRate ship of analytical merriment.

The PiRates have spent hours upon hours doing research this summer getting ready for another football season.  2018 was an incredible year for our ratings, as we finished at the top of the Prediction Tracker against the spread in college football, and the best against the spread and at picking winners in NFL football.  We have seen a steady bump in additional readers, so we hope we can follow up with another great year.

Today, we begin previewing one NCAA FBS conference per day for the next 11 days.  In past years, we published lengthy previews, but after hearing from a lot of you tell us that you come here for the stats, we are going to try to become the Sergeant Joe Friday of football, “Just the Stats.”  Oh, we’ll throw in a little Joe Gannon and include something from out of left field when something warrants it.

We begin with Conference USA, the #11 rated conference to begin the PiRate Ratings season.

The Official Media Poll

Conference USA Media Poll
East Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes
1 Marshall 14
2 Florida Int’l. 9
3 Florida Atlantic 3
4 Middle Tennessee 0
5 Western Kentucky 0
6 Old Dominion 0
7 Charlotte 0
 

 

West Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes
1 North Texas 20
2 Southern Miss. 4
3 Louisiana Tech 0
4 UAB 2
5 UTSA 0
6 Rice 0
7 UTEP 0

For some reason, Conference USA did not release the total vote count by the media.  We only received the First Place Votes and position each team finished in the voting.  Additionally, the media did not vote on an overall champion.

 

The PiRate Ratings

Preseason PiRate Ratings–CUSA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Int’l. 93.6 93.7 94.4 93.9
Marshall 92.9 92.6 93.8 93.1
Florida Atlantic 91.7 91.1 92.4 91.7
Middle Tennessee 90.5 90.0 90.6 90.4
Western Kentucky 87.5 88.7 89.0 88.4
Charlotte 86.6 87.0 87.0 86.9
Old Dominion 75.1 76.0 75.1 75.4
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Southern Miss. 93.4 92.2 93.7 93.1
North Texas 92.5 92.3 93.4 92.7
Louisiana Tech 90.7 90.8 90.8 90.7
U A B 88.2 89.1 88.7 88.7
U T S A 77.5 80.0 77.2 78.2
Rice 77.7 78.8 77.0 77.9
U T E P 67.9 72.6 68.3 69.6
CUSA Averages 86.1 86.8 86.5 86.5

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  Then, if the Captain didn’t like the result, he swung his sword and chose them by himself.  Actually, the conference records had to be balanced, and all the half-win votes made it a mess, so it’s probably 100% his opinion.

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos Team CUSA Overall
1 Florida Atlantic 6-2 8-5
2 Marshall 6-2 9-3
3 Florida Int’l. 5-3 7-5
4 Western Kentucky 4-4 5-7
5 Middle Tennessee 4-4 5-7
6 Charlotte 3-5 5-7
7 Old Dominion 1-7 2-10
 

 

West Division
Pos Team CUSA Overall
1 Southern Miss. 7-1 9-4*
2 Louisiana Tech 6-2 9-3
3 North Texas 6-2 7-5
4 UAB 5-3 8-4
5 UTSA 2-6 3-9
6 Rice 1-7 1-11
7 UTEP 0-8 1-11
* Southern Miss. picked to win CUSA Championship

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl Team
Bahamas Southern Miss.
First Responder Marshall
Gasparilla Cincinnati
New Mexico Louisiana Tech
New Orleans UAB
 

 

Alternate Bowl Teams
Frisco Florida Int’l
Independence North Texas

Coaches That Could Move To FBS Power Conference Schools

Seth Littrell–North Texas

Lane Kiffin–Florida Atlantic

Jay Hopson–Southern Miss.

 

Coaches on The Hot Seat

Dana Dimel–UTEP

Frank Wilson–UTSA

Bobby Wilder–Old Dominion

 

Top Quarterbacks

Mason Fine–North Texas

Tyler Johnson III–UAB

James Morgan–Florida Int’l.

 

Best Offense

North Texas

Florida Int’l.

Marshall

 

Best Defense

Marshall

Louisiana Tech

Southern Miss.

 

Coming Tomorrow–The Mid-American Conference

 

 

 

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August 15, 2018

2018 American Athletic Conference Preview

Note: The preseason ratings you see in the previews may not be the same as the ratings you see for the first game. We update every team’s rating based on player injuries, changes to the depth charts, and other factors that may change during preseason practice.

Some of our Group of 5 Conference won-loss predictions were figured before the beginning of August preseason practices. Thus, it could be that a player or players on some teams have already suffered season-ending or multiple game injuries or have left their teams, and these won-loss predictions no longer accurately reflect our ratings. We hope that by the time we preview the Power 5 conferences, we will know who is not going to be available (players and head coaches).

This American Athletic Conference believes the number one team in the nation played within its jurisdiction last year. No, Alabama did not have some type of adjunct relationship with the league. Central Florida was the lone unbeaten team in the nation in 2017. In addition, the Knights did something Alabama was unable to do–beat Auburn.
The PiRate Ratings not only said that UCF was not the top team in the nation, we believed there were four better teams last year. UCF’s running the table reminded us a lot of Penn State in 1968, when the Nittany Lions went 11-0 and beat Kansas in the Orange Bowl. So what did that Penn State team do for an encore in 1969? They merely went 11-0 again with one of the most aggressive defenses and special teams in college football history.
UCF just might run the table again this year, just like that great Penn State team.

However, they will have an extra impediment that Penn State did not have in 1969. Coach Scott Frost took his marbles and went home to alma mater Nebraska. The Knights will try to become the first team since Toledo in 1970 and 1971 to go undefeated in back-to-back seasons with different head coaches. That Toledo team actually ran the table for three consecutive years.
UCF returns a talented quarterback in McKenzie Milton, two talented running backs in Adrian Killins and Otis Anderson, and two highly-skilled receivers Dredrick Snelson and Gabriel Davis that helped team up for 530+ yards and 48+ points per game. The Knights should continue to pile up yards and points again this year, and if the defense can hold serve and put up similar numbers to last year, UCF has a chance to repeat at 13-0. The toughest roadblocks will be road games with North Carolina and Memphis and a home game with Pittsburgh. The regular season finale at South Florida could be a trap game.

Speaking of South Florida, the Bulls are not quite up to UCF’s talent level, and they undergo a slight rebuilding project this year. A splendid offensive team in 2017, USF must break in a new quarterback, a new running back or backs to replace two highly talented backs, and their leading receiver. Things are not all that rosy on the defensive side of the ball, but the Bulls had a lot of talented depth and should be okay on this side of the ball, especially with a defensive mastermind like Charlie Strong as head coach.

Temple continued to win with new coach Geoff Collins taking over for Matt Rhule last year. Collins might have a hard time topping last year’s seven wins, but the rest of the division is not ready to move up, so the Owls might have a shot at another bowl-eligible season. Temple has some stars on both sides of the ball, foremost being rush end Quincy Roche, who recorded seven sacks as a freshman. He’ll join the finest trio of linebackers in the league, and Temple should hold opponents to 21 to 24 points per game this year. If the offense can take a small move forward, Temple can contend with South Florida for second in the division.

The bottom three teams in the East Division fall far short of the top three. Cincinnati appears to be nearing the end of the Luke Fickell era. After a 4-8 season in 2017, the Bearcats look like a team that will find it hard to even equal that mark this year. Pass defense will be a major issue, and even if the pass rush improves this year, UC may take a backward turn against the run. The result should be another year where opponents average north of 30 points per game.

East Carolina and Connecticut face major rebuilding projects and should both win fewer games than a year ago. That’s not an easy task, as they both won just three times in 2017.

Memphis lost just twice in the regular season last year, but both times, it was to Central Florida. The Tigers host UCF in the middle of the season, and the game could match a pair of ranked and undefeated teams. The only reason why Memphis may not top the Knights is the breaking in of a new quarterback. David Moore can run and pass with talent, but he lacks the experience that Milton has at UCF. The Tigers should have a better defense this year with most of the key players back, but the offense is going to backtrack, and with it will go the Tigers’ conference championship hopes in 2018.

When Major Applewhite became Houston’s head coach last year, he heard an edict from the school’s president that 8-4 will get a coach fired there. Applewhite only mustered seven wins in his first year, and 8-4 may be about what to expect in year two. The question is: will 8-4 be good enough in year two? The Cougars lost too much talent on both sides of the ball to make a legitimate move forward. Every full-time starting skill position player at one set position on offense must be replaced. The one exception is D’Eriq King, who began the season as one of the leading receivers on the team and then moved to quarterback in the second half.

Navy has been to 14 bowls in the last 15 years, and with an experienced quarterback returning to run the double slot option offense, the Midshipmen will make it 15 in 16 years. Coach Ken Niumatalolo’s teams usually improve by a couple of games when his quarterback returns, so look for Navy to challenge for double-digit wins this year.

Unlike the East, the bottom three teams in the West could all contend for bowl eligibility this year. Tulane and SMU played a bowl-qualifier in the regular season’s final week last year. Tulane appeared to have the game won at the end, but an incorrect referee’s call gave the game and the Frisco Bowl bid to the Mustangs. The PiRate Ratings don’t call for it, but we believe Coach Willie Fritz will build on this near-miss and push Tulane to bowl eligibility. Expect quarterback Jonathan Banks to increase the Green Wave’s passing efficiency, especially since his starting receiving corps returns in full. While at Georgia Southern, Fritz’s offenses averaged better than 425 yards and 35 points per game, and if TU can match that amount this year, Fritz will be coaching in December.

SMU must start all over with a new coach and new offensive system. The Mustangs should be okay on offense, but their defense is still a mess, and the new offense may force it to stay on the field a tad more this year. It may take 40 points per game for the Mustangs to win six games and make a bowl game again.

Tulsa has the least chance of the three bottom-half teams to make a bowl this year, and a reduction in their athletic budget could signal some lean times in the near future. Last year, the Golden Hurricane could not move the football through the air, and it led to a sub 30 points per game output, and a year after winning 10 games, Tulsa lost 10 games.

Here is how the American Athletic Conference Media voted in the preseason poll.

American Athletic
East 1st Place Points
1. Central Florida 25 175
2. South Florida 5 140
3. Temple 0 132
4. Cincinnati 0 91
5. Connecticut 0 51
6. East Carolina 0 41
West 1st Place Points
1. Memphis 23 171
2. Houston 4 146
3. Navy 3 129
4. SMU 0 72
5. Tulane 0 68
6. Tulsa 0 44
Championship Game Winner Points
Central Florida 19
Memphis 7
South Florida 3
Houston 1

The PiRate Ratings agree almost completely with the media experts with the exception of flip-flopping Tulane and SMU

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 0-0 0-0 110.8 110.4 110.7 110.6
South Florida 0-0 0-0 96.0 99.3 96.9 97.4
Temple 0-0 0-0 95.8 95.8 96.2 95.9
Cincinnati 0-0 0-0 87.1 88.5 86.5 87.3
Connecticut 0-0 0-0 84.1 84.4 82.8 83.8
East Carolina 0-0 0-0 83.1 82.2 82.0 82.4
West Division
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 0-0 0-0 104.2 106.3 105.7 105.4
Houston 0-0 0-0 99.9 101.4 101.0 100.8
Navy 0-0 0-0 98.7 101.7 98.5 99.7
Tulane 0-0 0-0 94.4 94.6 94.0 94.3
SMU 0-0 0-0 95.1 93.8 94.0 94.3
Tulsa 0-0 0-0 91.8 90.3 92.3 91.5
AAC Averages 95.1 95.7 95.1 95.3

New Coaches
The biggest coaching change in all of Group of 5 football is at Central Florida, where former Oklahoma passing phenom Josh Heupel takes over for former Nebraska star Scott Frost. Heupel comes from the spread passing philosophy of Bob Stoops and Mike Leach. Heupel most recently served as offensive coordinator at Missouri, where Drew Lock routinely topped 300 yards passing. What a lot of fans might not know is that Heupel’s Missouri offense also finished in the top half of the SEC’s rushing statistics. UCF will most likely continue to average more than 40 points and 500 yards per game.

SMU welcomes former Louisiana Tech and California head coach Sonny Dykes, as he too brings the same offense to Dallas that Heupel will bring to Orlando. Dykes was a special offensive assistant at TCU last year, and the Horned Frogs averaged 33.6 points and 419 yards per game.

Predicted Won-Loss Records
Note: These predicted won-loss records are strictly mechanical based on the initial PiRate Ratings. No upsets are factored in these predictions. Additionally, our PiRate Ratings are only useful for the next week of games and cannot really be used to forecast past that point. Part of our weekly adjustment to our ratings includes a factor where depth issues or non-issues have been pre-set. In other words, a team without talented second stringers may lose ratings points as the season progresses even if they win games by the predicted margin, whereas a team with exceptional depth (like Alabama) will improve during the season and see its rating rise even if they win games by a little less than the predicted margin. What we’re saying is: don’t take these numbers with anything more than a grain of salt.

Team Conference Overall
East
Central Florida 8-0 13-0 *
South Florida 5-3 8-4
Temple 5-3 7-5
Cincinnati 2-6 3-9
East Carolina 1-7 2-10
Connecticut 0-8 1-11
West Conference Overall
Memphis 7-1 10-3
Navy 6-2 10-3
Houston 6-2 8-4
Tulsa 3-5 5-7
Tulane 3-5 4-8
SMU 2-6 3-9
* Central Florida picked to win AAC Champ. Game

Bowl Tie-ins
The American Athletic Conference has contracts to fill seven bowls with no set pecking order.

Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX
Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas
Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL
Cure Bowl in Orlando, FL
Frisco Bowl in Frisco, TX (The Home Soccer Stadium for FC Dallas of the MLS).
Gasparilla Bowl in St. Petersburg, FL
Military Bowl in Annapolis, MD

Coming Tomorrow–We begin previewing the Power 5 Conferences. First up is the Big 12.

November 15, 2017

Making College Football Even Better

This is our annual and somewhat repetitive treatise dealing with how to improve the college football game as it pertains to the current status.

College football is thriving since the advent of the 4-team playoff.  Unfortunately, those in charge made a little mistake in previous years when they scheduled semifinal bowls for the PM hours of New Year’s Eve.  Numerous fans across the nation chose (in some cases it was chosen for them by a significant other), to attend other festivities.  The semifinal games belong on New Year’s Day, which is the slot Americans have associated with bowl games for decades.  The ultimate college football experience starts with celebrating the birth of the new year while camping out on Orange Grove Boulevard in Pasadena with hundreds if not thousands of potentially new friends; then watching the most magnificent two hours of the Tournament of Roses Parade, contemplating how much work has gone into the planning of this event (it actually begins on January 2nd every year), and then realizing that the bands will march and play their instruments for 5 1/2 miles.

One of the neat things to do if you have been to multiple Rose Parades is to stake out a spot on Paloma at the end of the route and then to be the first to view the floats as they go on display near Victory Park.

The culmination of a fantastic event should be the Rose Bowl Game, which should not be played on any other date but New Year’s Day at 3PM PST (Jan. 2 if the first is on a Sunday).

That being said, there are a few other changes that we believe will take a great game and shoot it into orbit.

ISSUE 1–The Playoffs (8 is not enough)

The Playoffs need more teams, so that all Power 5 Conference champions get an automatic bid.  How would you feel if the Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North and then did not have the opportunity to appear in the NFL Playoffs?  Or what if the Houston Astros would have been cut out of the Major League playoffs because Cleveland had a better resume this year?

Here’s how the PiRates see it at the present time.  We are unanimously in favor of giving all five Power Conference champions an automatic invitation to the gridiron dance, while at the same time, we believe the top four teams should receive a reward.  One method could be that the top four would host the next four in an 8-team tournament, but to us that is not enough reward for the top four teams.  Also, there are going to be years were the number 9 team is as good as the number 4 team, and instead of arguing that number 4 should not have been selected, as number 9 was just as deserving, why not extend it out by a half round?  12 is the perfect number of playoff teams.  Most importantly, a 12-team tournament gives the top four teams a bye to the quarterfinals, and they can still host a quarterfinal round game on their home turf.  That is the proper reward for finishing in the top four.

Additionally, a 12-team tournament gives the Group of 5 conferences a chance.  Guarantee that one of the 12 spots goes to the top Group of 5, just like it receives a New Year’s 6 Bowl bid now.  If Central Florida runs the table this year, rather than receive the last slot in the NY6, at least they could be the #12 seed in a 12-team playoff.  If they really are deserving, then they can prove it by taking out the #5 seed in a road contest.

With 5 Power Conference teams and one Group of 5 Conference team receiving automating bids, it leaves six at-large bids.  In our opinion, these six at-large teams should cover the bases for finding teams worthy of playing for all the marbles.  You are talking about teams ranked around #10 overall at this point.  The #10 vs. #11 team is much less important than the #5 and #4 team competing for a spot.

If we were to look at this season, playing out the remaining games for our purposes in this editorial, the playoffs might look something like this:

ACC Champion–Miami

Big 12 Champion–Oklahoma

Big Ten Champion–Wisconsin

Pac-12 Champion–USC

SEC Champion–Alabama

Best Group of 5–Central Florida

At large 1–Georgia

At large 2–Clemson

At large 3–Ohio St.

At large 4–TCU

At large 5–Penn St.

At large 6–Notre Dame

Top teams left out–Washington, Auburn, Michigan St., Boise St., Memphis, Oklahoma St., and LSU

At the present time, Wisconsin would be left out of the Playoff, even though the Badgers are undefeated.  This would be a travesty if a 13-0 UW team failed to make the playoffs while a 2-loss team sneaked in ahead of the Badgers.  Under our format, none of the teams left out would have any legitimate reason to state a case that they deserved to be in, because in actuality the last two seeds probably should not be in the tournament at all.  However, this actually serves a useful purpose.  If seeds 10, 11, and 12 are not all that worthy of being in the playoffs, then their first round hosts (seeds 5, 6, and 7) get a little benefit that seed 8 does not receive.

Seeding the 12 teams above, you would get something like this:

Opening Round

#12 Central Florida at #5 Georgia

#11 Notre Dame at #6 Clemson

#10 USC at #7 Ohio St.

#9 Penn St. at #8 TCU

Quarterfinal Round

UCF-Ga. Winner at #4 Wisconsin

N. Dame-Clemson Winner at #3 Oklahoma

USC-Ohio St. Winner at #2 Miami

Penn St.-TCU Winner at #1 Alabama

From here the playoffs would be back to where they are now–two bowl games for the Semifinals, followed by the National Championship Game.

 

ISSUE 2–The Games are Toooooooo Lonnnnnng

The NFL realized a few years back that their once 2 1/2 hour games had jumped by an hour, because players believed in going out of bounds rather than absorb contact by a quickly moving 300-pound wall of steel.  They began starting the clock after the ball was brought back in bounds by the side judge or line judge.  Thus, the number of scrimmage plays returned to about where it had been for decades, in the 120-130 per game neighborhood.

College football used to see anywhere from 110 to 150 scrimmage plays per game.  Today, one team might run 100 plays, while the other gets 75, and the game becomes the football version of War and Peace.  The game needs to get to a point where 120-150 plays is the average range.  There is one definite way to make the clock move more than it does today–end the stoppage of the clock on first downs.  The NFL does just fine without the clock stopping on first downs.  The sideline official simply places his lead foot on the spot where the scrimmage stick needs to go, and he keeps it there until the man holding the stick arrives, which is almost always before the ball is snapped for the next play.

If you keep the clock moving after a play results in a first down during a typical college football game today, you are not stopping the clock about 45 times per game.  On games where there are fewer first downs, the clock will keep running any way, so this will basically just keep your 1,000 total yard games under 4 hours, while doing little to the 500 total yard games.

ISSUE 3–We Want Real Overtime

The current mode of college overtime can take a hard fought, defensive gem 13-13 tie at the end of regulation and turn it into a 43-41 4OT game that looks like nobody played a lick of defense.

College overtime should start with one team kicking off to the other, and with a touchdown needed on the first drive in order to end the game without the kicking team getting the ball, just like in the NFL.  Play 10 or 15 minutes, and if the teams are still tied, then let it be a tie game.  Tie games can be just as important as wins and losses.  In today’s world of computer technology, a tie game will not throw a monkey wrench into the works.  Here’s a little secret for you: When the PiRates adjust our ratings after every college football game, we adjust all overtime games back to the tie score at the end of regulation and throw out what happens in overtime, with the exception of factoring in the possibilities of key players being injured and if it could deflate the loser in the future.  What goes on in the current overtime does not tell us anything important.  We need to know how teams perform on both sides of the ball on a 100-yard field and not a 25-yard field.  In actuality, it makes the game a different sport entirely.  How would you like a college basketball overtime only played in the half-court with each team getting a possession per overtime?  That is not real basketball either.

ISSUE 4: A Wet Turf Should Never Be Credited With a Tackle

How many times have you seen a player make a brilliant move to get open in the clear only to slip on wet turf or dive to make a play and then cannot advance the ball, even though no defender has participated in the play?  The NFL totally gets this issue.  A player should not be considered tackle, unless a defender is responsible for downing him or has made contact with him while he is on the ground.  Watching a receiver embarrass a defender, make a brilliant highlight-film catch, and then have to settle for a 6-yard gain, when he could get up and run for 25 yards robs not only the player and his team, but also the fans who want to see action.  When that player dives for the ball and makes the catch today, the turf gets the tackle.  Only vegetation can be happy about that.

ISSUE 5: Pass Interference Should Never Be Allowed to Become a Defensive Strategy

In the early 1980’s, the college football world changed defensive pass interference penalties to a maximum of 15 yards and an automatic first down.  In today’s game, there are times when it is beneficial to clobber a receiver and give up the 15 yards and first down rather than give up the 30-yard pass completion or the touchdown catch.  With less than a minute to go in the game when one team needs only a touchdown to win, but they must go 80 yards, every time the offensive team throws at an attempt to gain more than 35 yards, it is wise to merely clobber the receiver if there is any chance the ball will be caught.  You give up 15 yards and a first down, but now the receiver is hearing footsteps.  The next pass may find him not really extending his arms out to try to catch the pass, knowing that the defender can perform as much unnecessary roughness on him and only suffer the interference penalty.

The right thing to do is to restore pass interference penalties back to awarding the offense a first down at the spot of the foul, just like it has remained in the NFL.  Now, if a team interferes on a Hail Mary pass in the end zone, the offense gets the ball at the opponent’s one yard line, and gets another play, even if the clock shows 0:00.  Pass interference should never be allowed to become a strategy.  It is the equivalent of a flagrant foul in basketball on a breakaway drive to the hoop.

 

December 11, 2016

College Football Ratings & Spreads For Bowl Season 2016-2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:25 am

The 2016 regular season is now in the books, and the PiRates have been busy the last 16 hours readying our bowl season ratings and predictions.

Here are the Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings, starting with the Predictive PiRate, Mean, and Bias.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 132.5 138.7 136.6
2 Washington 133.0 125.8 132.4 130.4
3 Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
4 Clemson 129.5 123.5 128.7 127.2
5 Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
6 Oklahoma 125.2 123.3 125.1 124.5
7 LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
8 USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
9 Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
10 Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
11 Penn St. 119.9 119.7 120.0 119.9
12 Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
13 Wisconsin 118.7 116.7 119.1 118.2
14 Virginia Tech 118.7 116.9 118.8 118.1
15 Oklahoma St. 116.6 117.9 116.0 116.8
16 Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
17 Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
18 Colorado 117.1 112.7 117.0 115.6
19 Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
20 North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
21 Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
22 Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
23 Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
24 Kansas St. 111.9 113.7 111.9 112.5
25 Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
26 Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
27 Florida 112.4 112.9 110.9 112.1
28 West Virginia 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6
29 Temple 111.5 110.6 112.3 111.5
30 Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
31 Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
32 Western Kentucky 110.7 108.8 112.1 110.5
33 Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
34 South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
35 Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
36 BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
37 Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
38 Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
39 Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
40 TCU 107.4 109.1 106.4 107.6
41 North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
42 Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
43 Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
44 Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
45 Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
46 Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
47 Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
48 Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
49 Navy 105.2 104.8 105.2 105.1
50 Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
51 Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
52 UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
53 Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
54 San Diego St. 103.8 102.6 105.6 104.0
55 Baylor 103.8 104.2 103.8 103.9
56 Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
57 Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
58 Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
59 Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
60 Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
61 California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
62 Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
63 Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
64 Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
65 Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
66 Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
67 Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
68 Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
69 Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
70 Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
71 Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
72 Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
73 South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
74 Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
75 Louisiana Tech 96.5 98.7 98.2 97.8
76 Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
77 New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
78 Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
79 Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
80 Arkansas St. 93.1 95.8 94.8 94.6
81 Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
82 Wyoming 93.5 94.1 94.5 94.0
83 Army 91.6 97.1 92.9 93.9
84 Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
85 Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
86 Troy 91.0 94.8 92.8 92.9
87 SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
88 Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
89 Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
90 Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
91 Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
92 Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
93 UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
94 Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
95 Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
96 Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
97 Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
98 Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
99 East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
100 Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
101 Idaho 85.6 90.4 87.8 87.9
102 Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
103 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
104 Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
105 UL-Lafayette 84.8 88.6 86.4 86.6
106 Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
107 Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
108 Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
109 Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
110 South Alabama 81.8 88.0 82.5 84.1
111 San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
112 Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
113 UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
114 Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
115 Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
116 Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
117 Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
118 Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
119 Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
120 Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
121 North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
122 Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
123 Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
124 Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
125 UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
126 New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
127 UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
128 Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5

Here are our Retrodictive Rankings.  See our explanation of these rankings at:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/12/07/our-unique-way-of-compiling-our-college-retrodictive-ratings/

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Clemson
4 Michigan
5 Washington
6 Penn St.
7 Wisconsin
8 USC
9 Oklahoma
10 Florida St.
11 Western Michigan
12 Colorado
13 Stanford
14 LSU
15 Louisville
16 Auburn
17 West Virginia
18 Oklahoma St.
19 Washington St.
20 South Florida
21 Iowa
22 Boise St.
23 Florida
24 Houston
25 Temple
26 Virginia Tech
27 Pittsburgh
28 Nebraska
29 Miami (Fla)
30 Tennessee
31 Texas A&M
32 Utah
33 Western Kentucky
34 North Carolina
35 Tulsa
36 Minnesota
37 BYU
38 Kansas St.
39 Georgia Tech
40 Navy
41 Appalachian St.
42 Toledo
43 San Diego St.
44 Memphis
45 Georgia
46 Arkansas
47 Northwestern
48 Air Force
49 Kentucky
50 Colorado St.
51 Troy
52 Vanderbilt
53 North Carolina St.
54 Indiana
55 Ole Miss
56 TCU
57 Old Dominion
58 Wyoming
59 California
60 New Mexico
61 Mississippi St.
62 Central Florida
63 Louisiana Tech
64 Maryland
65 UCLA
66 South Carolina
67 Baylor
68 Oregon
69 Notre Dame
70 Idaho
71 Boston College
72 Texas
73 Arkansas St.
74 Wake Forest
75 Ohio
76 Arizona St.
77 Oregon St.
78 Eastern Michigan
79 Middle Tennessee
80 Texas Tech
81 Army
82 SMU
83 Missouri
84 Duke
85 Michigan St.
86 Syracuse
87 Central Michigan
88 UTSA
89 UL-Lafayette
90 Miami (O)
91 Northern Illinois
92 Iowa St.
93 Arizona
94 Southern Miss.
95 Georgia Southern
96 Hawaii
97 South Alabama
98 Illinois
99 Cincinnati
100 Tulane
101 Akron
102 Utah St.
103 Bowling Green
104 Purdue
105 East Carolina
106 Virginia
107 San Jose St.
108 Nevada
109 North Texas
110 UNLV
111 Ball St.
112 Rutgers
113 UL-Monroe
114 Kent St.
115 Kansas
116 Georgia St.
117 Connecticut
118 Charlotte
119 UTEP
120 New Mexico St.
121 Florida Int’l.
122 Marshall
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 Fresno St.
127 Texas St.
128 Buffalo

Here are the ratings by FBS Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 111.5 110.6 112.3 111.5
South Florida 110.0 108.3 110.6 109.6
Central Florida 97.7 98.7 98.4 98.3
Cincinnati 92.0 92.8 91.7 92.2
East Carolina 87.6 89.0 87.6 88.1
Connecticut 84.9 84.6 84.3 84.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 110.0 108.8 111.1 110.0
Memphis 106.1 103.9 105.5 105.2
Navy 105.2 104.8 105.2 105.1
Tulsa 104.5 105.7 105.0 105.1
SMU 91.9 91.5 93.9 92.5
Tulane 86.8 89.9 87.4 88.0
         
AAC Averages 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.2
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 129.5 123.5 128.7 127.2
Florida St. 122.8 117.1 122.1 120.7
Louisville 121.9 118.4 121.7 120.7
North Carolina St. 108.8 105.2 108.5 107.5
Wake Forest 101.2 99.5 101.3 100.7
Boston College 99.5 97.9 98.9 98.8
Syracuse 98.9 95.6 97.2 97.3
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Virginia Tech 118.7 116.9 118.8 118.1
Miami 118.4 113.1 118.3 116.6
Pittsburgh 117.8 113.8 117.1 116.2
North Carolina 116.2 110.9 116.0 114.4
Georgia Tech 110.2 106.4 109.3 108.6
Duke 101.3 100.3 100.7 100.8
Virginia 99.9 97.3 98.9 98.7
         
ACC Averages 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 125.2 123.3 125.1 124.5
Oklahoma St. 116.6 117.9 116.0 116.8
Kansas St. 111.9 113.7 111.9 112.5
West Virginia 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6
TCU 107.4 109.1 106.4 107.6
Texas 104.1 105.7 103.0 104.3
Baylor 103.8 104.2 103.8 103.9
Texas Tech 102.2 101.6 101.3 101.7
Iowa St. 100.6 100.6 99.6 100.3
Kansas 87.0 91.0 85.1 87.7
         
Big 12 Averages 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 127.5 127.1 127.8 127.5
Michigan 127.4 125.5 127.2 126.7
Penn St. 119.9 119.7 120.0 119.9
Michigan St. 105.1 104.3 103.9 104.4
Indiana 103.5 104.6 102.9 103.7
Maryland 95.8 97.8 94.2 95.9
Rutgers 86.8 85.3 85.1 85.8
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 118.7 116.7 119.1 118.2
Iowa 115.9 113.1 115.8 114.9
Northwestern 108.8 105.4 107.8 107.3
Minnesota 107.4 105.8 107.1 106.8
Nebraska 106.5 104.3 106.1 105.6
Purdue 91.7 90.3 90.5 90.8
Illinois 91.6 88.8 90.4 90.3
         
Big Ten Averages 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 110.7 108.8 112.1 110.5
Old Dominion 89.4 92.4 90.6 90.8
Middle Tennessee 88.5 90.3 89.0 89.3
Florida International 81.2 85.4 81.8 82.8
Marshall 77.9 81.4 78.4 79.2
Charlotte 76.3 81.9 76.9 78.4
Florida Atlantic 75.0 79.5 77.1 77.2
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 96.5 98.7 98.2 97.8
UTSA 87.2 92.9 89.6 89.9
Southern Mississippi 88.4 88.6 88.7 88.6
Rice 77.8 83.3 78.3 79.8
North Texas 77.2 80.2 77.6 78.4
UTEP 74.4 79.1 75.7 76.4
         
CUSA Averages 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
         
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 112.3 109.5 111.4 111.1
BYU 110.7 106.5 110.7 109.3
Army 91.6 97.1 92.9 93.9
Massachusetts 79.8 85.0 80.6 81.8
         
Independents Averages 98.6 99.5 98.9 99.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio 91.4 97.1 92.0 93.5
Miami (O) 89.4 91.1 90.8 90.4
Bowling Green 86.3 87.4 86.5 86.7
Kent St. 84.0 85.5 84.9 84.8
Akron 81.8 86.9 82.7 83.8
Buffalo 76.1 81.9 76.7 78.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 113.2 113.0 114.9 113.7
Toledo 102.5 103.2 103.4 103.0
Northern Illinois 94.6 95.9 95.5 95.3
Central Michigan 92.5 94.6 92.9 93.3
Eastern Michigan 87.6 89.6 88.3 88.5
Ball St. 84.7 86.7 85.6 85.7
         
MAC Averages 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 104.5 105.7 105.2 105.1
Colorado St. 97.8 99.4 98.9 98.7
Air Force 97.6 99.2 97.8 98.2
New Mexico 95.2 96.9 96.0 96.1
Wyoming 93.5 94.1 94.5 94.0
Utah St. 88.8 91.2 88.6 89.5
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 103.8 102.6 105.6 104.0
Nevada 88.2 90.2 88.7 89.1
San Jose St. 84.1 84.2 84.0 84.1
UNLV 82.5 85.4 83.1 83.7
Hawaii 80.9 80.8 80.7 80.8
Fresno St. 77.3 80.6 77.0 78.3
         
MWC Averages 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 133.0 125.8 132.4 130.4
Washington St. 114.9 112.2 114.4 113.9
Stanford 114.9 109.3 114.4 112.9
Oregon 103.7 101.7 102.6 102.7
California 103.9 97.7 101.7 101.1
Oregon St. 100.6 96.2 99.5 98.8
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
USC 124.3 119.4 122.8 122.2
Colorado 117.1 112.7 117.0 115.6
Utah 112.7 107.8 111.4 110.6
UCLA 105.1 103.2 104.0 104.1
Arizona St. 99.0 97.4 97.3 97.9
Arizona 95.3 93.0 93.8 94.0
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 113.3 110.9 112.4 112.2
Florida 112.4 112.9 110.9 112.1
Georgia 108.3 107.7 107.6 107.9
Vanderbilt 107.5 104.3 106.4 106.1
Kentucky 104.1 104.2 103.8 104.0
Missouri 99.9 98.6 98.6 99.1
South Carolina 98.3 97.8 97.8 98.0
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 138.7 132.5 138.7 136.6
LSU 124.9 120.4 124.4 123.2
Auburn 120.5 118.5 120.4 119.8
Texas A&M 112.9 111.4 112.2 112.2
Arkansas 111.0 107.1 110.1 109.4
Mississippi St. 109.2 107.3 108.0 108.2
Ole Miss 105.3 101.6 104.0 103.6
         
SEC Averages 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.7 100.9 101.3 100.6
Arkansas St. 93.1 95.8 94.8 94.6
Troy 91.0 94.8 92.8 92.9
Idaho 85.6 90.4 87.8 87.9
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.4 87.9 87.2
UL-Lafayette 84.8 88.6 86.4 86.6
South Alabama 81.8 88.0 82.5 84.1
Georgia St. 77.6 82.0 79.4 79.7
New Mexico St. 74.2 77.2 75.3 75.6
UL-Monroe 68.8 74.1 69.8 70.9
Texas St. 62.3 64.9 63.3 63.5
         
Sun Belt Averages 82.3 85.8 83.8 84.0

 

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 111.9 109.7 111.1 110.9
2 ACC 111.8 108.3 111.2 110.4
3 Pac-12 110.4 106.4 109.3 108.7
4 Big 12 107.1 107.9 106.4 107.1
5 Big Ten 107.6 106.4 107.0 107.0
6 AAC 99.0 99.1 99.4 99.2
7 Independents 98.6 99.5 98.9 99.0
8 MWC 91.2 92.6 91.7 91.8
9 MAC 90.3 92.8 91.2 91.4
10 CUSA 84.7 87.9 85.7 86.1
11 Sun Belt 82.3 85.8 83.8 84.0

 

The 2016-2017 College Bowls

All times Eastern Standard
Team Team PiRate Mean Bias Network
Sat Dec-17 New Mexico 2:00 PM ESPN
New Mexico UTSA 11.0 7.0 9.4    
Sat Dec-17 Las Vegas 3:30 PM ABC
San Diego St. Houston -6.2 -6.2 -5.5    
Sat Dec-17 Cure 5:30 PM CBSSN
Central Florida Arkansas St. 6.6 4.9 5.6    
Sat Dec-17 Camellia 5:30 PM ESPN
Toledo Appalachian St. 2.8 2.3 2.1    
Sat Dec-17 New Orleans 9:00 PM ESPN
Southern Miss. UL-Lafayette 2.6 -1.0 1.3    
Mon Dec-19 Miami Beach 2:30 PM ESPN
Tulsa Central Mich. 12.0 11.1 12.1    
Tue Dec-20 Boca Raton 7:00 PM ESPN
Memphis Western Ky. -4.6 -4.9 -6.6    
Wed Dec-21 Poinsettia 9:00 PM ESPN
BYU Wyoming 17.2 12.4 16.2    
Thu Dec-22 Idaho Potato 7:00 PM ESPN
Colorado St. Idaho 9.7 6.5 8.6    
Fri Dec-23 Bahamas 1:00 PM ESPN
Old Dominion Eastern Michigan 1.8 2.8 2.3    
Fri Dec-23 Armed Forces 4:30 PM ESPN
Navy Louisiana Tech 8.7 6.1 7.0    
Fri Dec-23 Dollar General 8:00 PM ESPN
Ohio U Troy 0.4 3.3 0.2    
Sat Dec-24 Hawaii 8:00 PM ESPN
Hawaii Middle Tenn. -3.6 -5.5 -4.3    
Mon Dec-26 St. Petersburg 11:00 AM ESPN
Miami (O) Mississippi St. -19.8 -16.2 -17.2    
Mon Dec-26 Quick Lane 2:30 PM ESPN
Boston College Maryland 3.7 0.1 4.7    
Mon Dec-26 Independence 5:00 PM ESPN2
N. Carolina St. Vanderbilt 1.3 0.9 2.1    
Tue Dec-27 Heart of Dallas 12:00 PM ESPN
Army North Texas 9.4 11.9 10.3    
Tue Dec-27 Military 3:30 PM ESPN
Temple Wake Forest 10.3 11.1 11.0    
Tue Dec-27 Holiday 7:00 PM ESPN
Minnesota Washington St. -7.5 -6.4 -7.3    
Tue Dec-27 Cactus 10:15 PM ESPN
Baylor Boise St. -0.7 -1.5 -1.4  
Wed Dec-28 Pinstripe 2:00 PM ESPN
Pittsburgh Northwestern 9.0 8.4 9.3    
Wed Dec-28 Russell Athletic 5:30 PM ESPN
Miami (Fla.) West Virginia 8.0 3.1 8.3    
Wed Dec-28 Foster Farms 8:30 PM Fox
Indiana Utah -9.2 -3.2 -8.5    
Wed Dec-28 Texas 9:00 PM ESPN
Kansas St. Texas A&M -2.0 1.3 -2.3    
Thu Dec-29 Birmingham 2:00 PM ESPN
South Florida South Carolina 11.7 10.5 12.8    
Thu Dec-29 Belk 5:30 PM ESPN
Virginia Tech Arkansas 7.7 -0.2 8.7    
Thu Dec-29 Alamo 9:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma St. Colorado -0.5 5.2 -1.0    
Fri Dec-30 Liberty 12:00 PM ESPN
TCU Georgia -0.9 1.4 -1.2    
Fri Dec-30 Sun 2:00 PM CBS
North Carolina Stanford 1.3 1.6 1.6    
Fri Dec-30 Music City 3:30 PM ESPN
Nebraska Tennessee -9.3 -9.1 -8.8    
Fri Dec-30 Arizona 5:30 PM Campus Insiders
Air Force South Alabama 15.8 11.2 15.3    
Fri Dec-30 Orange 8:00 PM ESPN
Florida St. Michigan -3.1 -6.9 -3.6    
Sat Dec-31 Citrus 11:00 AM ABC
Louisville LSU -3.0 -2.0 -2.7    
Sat Dec-31 TaxSlayer 11:00 AM ESPN
Georgia Tech Kentucky 6.1 2.2 5.5    
Sat Dec-31 Peach 3:00 PM ESPN
Alabama Washington 7.2 8.2 7.8    
Sat Dec-31 Fiesta 7:00 PM ESPN
Clemson Ohio St. 2.0 -3.6 0.9    
Mon Jan-2 Outback 1:00 PM ABC
Florida Iowa -1.5 1.8 -2.9    
Mon Jan-2 Cotton 1:00 PM ESPN
Western Mich. Wisconsin -5.5 -3.7 -4.2    
Mon Jan-2 Rose 5:00 PM ESPN
Penn St. USC -6.9 -2.2 -5.3    
Mon Jan-2 Sugar 8:30 PM ESPN
Oklahoma Auburn 4.7 4.8 4.7    
Mon Jan-9 Championship 8:00 PM ESPN
Fiesta Winner Peach Winner Tampa, FL      

 

Note: Beginning the end of December, our Pirate College Basketball picks will return for the Saturday and Sunday major conferences and top teams.

 

 

 

 

 

December 19, 2015

Selections Against The Spread: 12/19/2015

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , — piratings @ 6:37 am

With the college bowl games beginning Saturday, our selection strategy changes somewhat.  We have never been a fan of Money Line Parlays in bowl games, upsets increase in December.

 

Thus, we will go with more straight selections and only play a minimal number of NFL Money Line Parlays.  It has been a very good year for our Money Line Parlays, as our theoretical Return on Investment has been 47.82% to this point.  According to our friend in the know, had we actually made these plays for real in most Las Vegas books with maximum wagering allowed, some of the books would have invited us to take our business elsewhere.

 

Remember, we do not recommend actually using these picks as your principal source of research.  We have nothing to lose by issuing these selections, since it is the mathematical interest that keeps us having fun.

 

Straight Picks–Sides

12/18/2015      
Favorite Underdog Line Our Pick
Arizona New Mexico 9 New Mexico
Utah BYU 2.5 Utah
San Jose St. Georgia St, 2 Georgia St.
Western Kentucky South Florida 3 South Florida
Temple Toledo 1.5 Temple
Bowling Green Georgia Southern 7 Bowling Green
N.Y. Jets Dallas 3 N.Y. Jets
New England Tennessee 13.5 New England
Cincinnati San Francisco 6 San Francisco

Money Line Parlays

Money Line Parlay 3 Teams at 9-5   $271 payout on$100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Kansas City Baltimore   Kansas City
Carolina N.Y. Giants   Carolina
Pittsburgh Denver   Pittsburgh
       
       
       
Money Line Parlay 2 Teams at 9-5   $286 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
N.Y. Jets Dallas   N.Y. Jets
Buffalo Washington   Buffalo

 

December 14, 2015

College Football Preview–Bowls & Playoffs Edition

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:01 pm

If you are looking for the complete bowl and playoff schedule including starting times, TV networks, and power rating spreads, then you have come to the right place.

The PiRate Ratings have suspended the rankings and ratings since only two teams played last week and very minimally changed the ratings.

Here is a complete bowl schedule

Bowl City Day Date Time Network Team Team
Cure Orlando, Fl Sat D19 12:00 PM CBSSN San Jose St. * Georgia St.
New Mexico Albuquerque, NM Sat D19 2:00 PM ESPN New Mexico Arizona *
Las Vegas Las Vegas, NV Sat D19 3:30 PM ABC Utah BYU
Camellia Montgomery, AL Sat D19 5:30 PM ESPN Ohio Appalachian St.
New Orleans New Orleans, LA Sat D19 9:00 PM ESPN Louisiana Tech Arkansas St.
Miami Beach Miami, FL Mon D21 2:30 PM ESPN South Florida W. Kentucky
Idaho Potato Boise, ID Tue D22 3:30 PM ESPN Akron Utah St.
Boca Raton Boca Raton, FL Tue D22 7:00 PM ESPN Temple Toledo
Poinsettia San Diego, CA Wed D23 4:30 PM ESPN Boise St. N. Illinois
GoDaddy Mobile, AL Wed D23 8:00 PM ESPN Bowling Green Ga. Southern
Bahamas Nassau, Bahamas Thu D24 12:00 PM ESPN Middle Tenn. Western Mich.
Hawaii Honolulu, HI Thu D24 8:00 PM ESPN Cincinnati San Diego St.
St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, FL Sat D26 11:00 AM ESPN Connecticut Marshall
Sun El Paso, TX Sat D26 2:00 PM CBS Miami Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Dallas, TX Sat D26 2:20 PM ESPN Washington * Southern Miss.
Pinstripe Bronx, NY Sat D26 3:30 PM ABC Duke Indiana
Independence Shreveport, LA Sat D26 5:45 PM ESPN Tulsa * Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Santa Clara, CA Sat D26 9:15 PM ESPN Nebraska UCLA
Military Annapolis, MD Mon D28 2:30 PM ESPN Pittsburgh Navy
Quick Lane Detroit, MI Mon D28 5:00 PM ESPN2 Central Mich. * Minnesota
Armed Forces Ft. Worth, TX Tue D29 2:00 PM ESPN California * Air Force
Russell Athl. Orlando, Fl Tue D29 5:30 PM ESPN North Carolina Baylor
Arizona Tucson, AZ Tue D29 7:30 PM  ***** Colorado St. * Nevada
Texas Houston, TX Tue D29 9:00 PM ESPN Texas Tech LSU
Birmingham Birmingham, AL Wed D30 12:00 PM ESPN Memphis Auburn
Belk Charlotte, NC Wed D30 3:30 PM ESPN N. Carolina St. Mississippi St.
Music City Nashville, TN Wed D30 7:00 PM ESPN Louisville Texas A&M
Holiday San Diego, CA Wed D30 10:30 PM ESPN Wisconsin USC
Peach Atlanta, GA Thu D31 12:00 PM ESPN Florida St. Houston
Orange Miami, FL Thu D31 4:00 PM ESPN Clemson Oklahoma
Cotton Arlington, TX Thu D31 8:00 PM ESPN Alabama Michigan St.
Ouback Tampa, FL Fri J1 12:00 PM ESPN2 Northwestern Tennessee
Citrus Orlando, Fl Fri J1 1:00 PM ABC Michigan Florida
Fiesta Glendale, AZ Fri J1 1:00 PM ESPN Ohio St. Notre Dame
Rose Pasadena, CA Fri J1 5:00 PM ESPN Iowa Stanford
Sugar New Orleans, LA Fri J1 8:30 PM ESPN Oklahoma St. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer Jacksonville, FL Sat J2 12:00 PM ESPN Penn St. Georgia
Liberty Memphis, TN Sat J2 3:20 PM ESPN Kansas St. Arkansas
Alamo San Antonio, FL Sat J2 6:45 PM ESPN TCU Oregon
Cactus Phoenix, AZ Sat J2 10:15 PM ESPN West Virginia Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Glendale, AZ Mon J11 8:30 PM ESPN Cotton Winner Orange Winner

***** Arizona Bowl will be streamed live on the Campus Insider’s website and will air in select markets via the American Sports Network

 
And, here are the PiRate Ratings for each bowl game.

Bowl Team Team PiRate Mean Bias
Cure San Jose St. Georgia St. 4.5 4.8 3.1
New Mexico New Mexico Arizona -12.6 -6.0 -12.0
Las Vegas Utah BYU 10.0 4.0 7.0
Camellia Ohio Appy St. -7.6 -6.3 -7.0
New Orleans La. Tech Ark. St. 4.1 2.6 2.6
Miami Beach South Florida W. Kentucky -5.9 -1.1 -6.3
Idaho Potato Akron Utah St. -12.5 -5.9 -8.6
Boca Raton Temple Toledo 3.2 4.9 3.5
Poinsettia Boise St. Northern Ill. 11.3 5.3 10.3
GoDaddy Bowl. Green Ga Southern 11.3 13.3 12.5
Bahamas Middle Tenn. Western Mich. -6.0 -7.6 -7.3
Hawaii Cincinnati S. Diego St. -3.7 -5.9 -3.6
St. Petersburg U Conn Marshall -6.9 -3.0 -5.3
Sun Miami Wash. St. -2.4 1.6 -2.1
Heart of Dallas Washington Southern Miss. 17.1 11.7 16.2
Pinstripe Duke Indiana 2.0 1.7 1.5
Independence Tulsa Virginia Tech -20.9 -16.5 -19.9
Foster Farms Nebraska UCLA -13.0 -8.9 -12.1
Military Pittsburgh Navy -0.4 -3.8 -1.2
Quick Lane Central Mich. Minnesota -13.3 -7.9 -11.0
Armed Forces California Air Force 16.3 7.6 15.0
Russell Athl. N. Carolina Baylor -1.8 2.6 -2.0
Arizona Colorado St. Nevada 3.1 -0.3 2.3
Texas Texas Tech LSU -11.7 -16.0 -11.1
Birmingham Memphis Auburn -7.9 -3.6 -6.3
Belk NC St. Miss. St. -5.1 -0.7 -6.6
Music City Louisville Texas A&M -8.4 -3.4 -6.5
Holiday Wisconsin USC -9.1 -4.8 -8.9
Peach Florida St. Houston 7.4 3.2 5.1
Orange Clemson Oklahoma -8.4 -3.9 -8.9
Cotton Alabama Michigan St. 11.8 11.9 11.7
Ouback Northwestern Tennessee -13.7 -9.6 -13.6
Citrus Michigan Florida -0.7 -0.4 -1.1
Fiesta Ohio St. Notre Dame 7.8 5.7 8.9
Rose Iowa Stanford -12.8 -8.4 -12.4
Sugar Oklahoma St. Ole Miss -9.6 -8.3 -9.2
TaxSlayer Penn St. Georgia -12.3 -7.9 -12.4
Liberty Kansas St. Arkansas -16.8 -20.4 -16.6
Alamo TCU Oregon 4.5 2.3 5.2
Cactus West Va. Arizona St. -2.5 -3.3 -2.7

December 7, 2015

College Football Preview–December 12, 2015

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:42 am

There is just one regular season FBS game remaining, and it’s the Army-Navy game this week to be played at Franklin Financial Field in Philadelphia.

 

Because our ratings rely on the results of all teams, we cannot post our bowl predictions until this game is finished. Our spreads of all 40 bowl games/playoff games will be posted after this game concludes.

This Week’s Game
         
Opponent Opponent PiRate Mean Bias
Saturday, December 12
Army Navy -27.8 -24.3 -27.6
Game to be played in Philadelphia

PiRate Ratings For This Week

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Oklahoma
4 Ohio St.
5 Michigan St.
6 Stanford
7 Notre Dame
8 Iowa
9 Florida St.
10 TCU
11 Ole Miss
12 North Carolina
13 Houston
14 Oklahoma St.
15 LSU
16 Oregon
17 Baylor
18 Florida
19 Northwestern
20 Michigan
21 Utah
22 USC
23 Tennessee
24 Wisconsin
25 Georgia
26 Navy
27 Memphis
28 Arkansas
29 Western Kentucky
30 Bowling Green
31 Mississippi St.
32 UCLA
33 Toledo
34 Temple
35 Texas A&M
36 BYU
37 California
38 Pittsburgh
39 West Virginia
40 Miami (Fla.)
41 Washington
42 South Florida
43 Washington St.
44 Appalachian St.
45 San Diego St.
46 Texas Tech
47 Louisville
48 Penn St.
49 North Carolina St.
50 Auburn
51 Arizona St.
52 Western Michigan
53 Boise St.
54 Virginia Tech
55 Cincinnati
56 Arkansas St.
57 Nebraska
58 Kansas St.
59 Southern Miss.
60 Indiana
61 Georgia Southern
62 Marshall
63 Duke
64 Texas
65 Northern Illinois
66 Air Force
67 Minnesota
68 Louisiana Tech
69 Illinois
70 Arizona
71 Central Michigan
72 Ohio
73 Georgia Tech
74 Utah St.
75 Connecticut
76 Missouri
77 East Carolina
78 Middle Tennessee
79 Virginia
80 Iowa St.
81 South Carolina
82 Vanderbilt
83 Akron
84 Tulsa
85 Maryland
86 Colorado St.
87 Syracuse
88 Georgia St.
89 Kentucky
90 New Mexico
91 Colorado
92 San Jose St.
93 Rutgers
94 Boston College
95 Wake Forest
96 Nevada
97 Buffalo
98 Oregon St.
99 Purdue
100 South Alabama
101 Troy
102 Florida Int’l.
103 Ball St.
104 Florida Atlantic
105 Rice
106 SMU
107 Idaho
108 Old Dominion
109 Massachusetts
110 UNLV
111 UTEP
112 Louisiana-Lafayette
113 Fresno St.
114 Tulane
115 Kent St.
116 Miami (O)
117 Texas St.
118 UTSA
119 Kansas
120 New Mexico St.
121 Hawaii
122 Wyoming
123 Louisiana-Monroe
124 Army
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.5 129.1 131.4 130.7
2 Oklahoma 130.2 126.5 130.9 129.2
3 Ohio St. 129.0 124.6 129.8 127.8
4 Stanford 124.5 121.7 124.9 123.7
5 Ole Miss 124.7 120.2 123.9 122.9
6 Clemson 121.8 122.6 122.0 122.1
7 Baylor 122.9 118.8 122.7 121.5
8 North Carolina 121.1 121.4 120.7 121.1
9 TCU 123.1 115.6 124.0 120.9
10 Notre Dame 121.2 118.9 120.9 120.3
11 Arkansas 121.3 116.4 120.8 119.5
12 Michigan St. 119.7 117.2 119.7 118.9
13 Tennessee 120.1 116.2 120.2 118.8
14 LSU 119.8 116.4 119.4 118.5
15 UCLA 120.5 114.8 118.9 118.1
16 USC 119.7 115.0 118.7 117.8
17 Florida St. 117.2 118.4 117.1 117.6
18 Oregon 118.6 113.3 118.8 116.9
19 Utah 118.1 112.3 116.3 115.6
20 Mississippi St. 116.5 113.1 116.5 115.4
21 Washington 115.9 112.6 115.8 114.8
22 Michigan 115.8 113.0 115.3 114.7
23 Texas A&M 116.4 112.9 114.4 114.6
24 Georgia 116.1 111.2 115.4 114.2
25 Oklahoma St. 115.1 111.9 114.7 113.9
26 Florida 114.5 111.4 114.4 113.4
27 California 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
28 West Virginia 114.9 109.2 114.3 112.8
29 Arizona St. 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
30 Iowa 111.7 113.3 112.5 112.5
31 Houston 109.8 115.2 112.0 112.3
32 Auburn 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
33 Wisconsin 111.6 111.2 110.8 111.2
34 Bowling Green 108.5 113.3 111.6 111.1
35 Virginia Tech 110.7 110.4 110.8 110.6
36 Western Kentucky 109.5 110.4 111.2 110.4
37 North Carolina St. 109.4 110.4 107.9 109.2
38 BYU 108.1 108.3 109.3 108.6
39 Louisville 108.0 109.5 107.9 108.5
40 Temple 106.9 109.9 108.4 108.4
41 Memphis 107.7 108.8 108.0 108.2
42 Pittsburgh 107.5 108.1 107.8 107.8
43 Nebraska 108.5 106.9 107.8 107.7
44 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.5 107.5 107.7
45 Washington St. 108.5 105.1 109.3 107.6
46 Navy 105.9 109.9 107.0 107.6
47 San Diego St. 105.7 109.8 106.9 107.5
48 Miami 106.1 106.7 107.2 106.7
49 Northwestern 106.4 106.6 106.6 106.5
50 Boise St. 107.3 105.1 107.2 106.5
51 Texas 107.5 103.4 107.3 106.1
52 South Carolina 107.3 104.2 106.3 105.9
53 Arizona 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
54 Texas Tech 108.1 100.4 108.3 105.6
55 Missouri 106.9 103.4 105.6 105.3
56 Toledo 103.7 105.0 104.9 104.5
57 South Florida 102.1 107.8 103.4 104.4
58 Minnesota 105.1 103.6 104.2 104.3
59 Western Michigan 102.6 103.8 104.0 103.5
60 Penn St. 103.8 103.3 103.0 103.4
61 Colorado 105.3 100.5 103.7 103.2
62 Kansas St. 106.0 97.5 105.7 103.1
63 Cincinnati 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
64 Duke 103.0 103.0 102.8 102.9
65 Illinois 104.1 101.9 102.8 102.9
66 Virginia 102.7 101.8 103.1 102.5
67 Indiana 101.0 101.3 101.3 101.2
68 Boston College 100.3 102.6 98.8 100.6
69 Kentucky 101.8 98.4 100.1 100.1
70 Air Force 98.7 102.1 99.1 100.0
71 Southern Mississippi 98.8 100.9 99.6 99.8
72 Iowa St. 100.4 96.3 100.1 98.9
73 Georgia Southern 97.2 100.0 99.1 98.8
74 Louisiana Tech 98.3 98.6 99.1 98.7
75 Vanderbilt 100.2 96.0 99.4 98.5
76 Marshall 97.9 98.5 97.6 98.0
77 Appalachian St. 96.4 99.5 97.9 97.9
78 Northern Illinois 96.0 99.8 96.9 97.6
79 Wake Forest 96.5 99.3 96.1 97.3
80 Utah St. 97.6 97.8 96.0 97.1
81 Arkansas St. 95.2 97.0 97.5 96.6
82 Middle Tennessee 96.6 96.2 96.7 96.5
83 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
84 Syracuse 95.1 97.9 95.0 96.0
85 Purdue 95.1 94.1 93.4 94.2
86 Maryland 94.5 93.4 94.4 94.1
87 Connecticut 91.0 95.5 92.3 92.9
88 San Jose St. 92.2 94.2 92.2 92.9
89 Colorado St. 92.8 93.3 92.3 92.8
90 New Mexico 92.3 93.4 91.8 92.5
91 Central Michigan 90.3 94.2 91.7 92.1
92 Rutgers 93.5 90.8 91.2 91.8
93 Tulsa 89.8 93.9 90.9 91.5
94 Nevada 89.7 93.6 90.0 91.1
95 Ohio 88.8 93.2 90.9 91.0
96 Akron 86.1 92.9 88.4 89.1
97 Georgia St. 86.2 87.9 87.6 87.2
98 Oregon St. 88.7 85.3 86.6 86.9
99 Florida Atlantic 84.1 87.5 84.9 85.5
100 Troy 84.2 85.5 84.8 84.8
101 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
102 SMU 83.3 86.9 82.9 84.4
103 Massachusetts 82.6 86.1 83.4 84.0
104 Buffalo 81.1 86.3 81.7 83.0
105 Tulane 82.2 84.7 80.9 82.6
106 UNLV 81.9 83.6 81.9 82.5
107 Fresno St. 81.5 84.2 79.7 81.8
108 Army 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
109 Wyoming 80.0 81.6 79.2 80.3
110 Rice 78.6 81.4 78.4 79.5
111 Ball St. 78.7 80.7 78.9 79.4
112 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
113 Old Dominion 76.7 80.6 76.4 77.9
114 Kent St. 77.1 79.0 77.4 77.8
115 Hawaii 77.9 79.0 76.3 77.7
116 UT-San Antonio 76.8 79.2 77.1 77.7
117 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
118 UL-Lafayette 76.6 79.1 76.3 77.3
119 South Alabama 75.0 79.8 75.9 76.9
120 Idaho 74.1 79.1 75.5 76.2
121 Central Florida 74.9 77.8 74.6 75.8
122 Texas St. 73.2 75.6 72.8 73.9
123 Eastern Michigan 71.5 77.6 71.7 73.6
124 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
125 New Mexico St. 72.6 73.8 72.0 72.8
126 Kansas 75.5 68.7 72.9 72.4
127 UL-Monroe 71.4 71.4 71.7 71.5
128 Charlotte 67.5 69.1 67.0 67.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.1 111.4 114.3 113.6
2 Pac-12 113.1 108.5 112.3 111.3
3 Big 12 110.4 104.8 110.1 108.4
4 ACC 107.8 108.5 107.5 107.9
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
6 Indep. 102.5 104.3 103.2 103.3
7 AAC 95.9 99.4 96.6 97.3
8 MWC 91.5 93.1 91.1 91.9
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.5
10 CUSA 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 82.0 84.4 82.8 83.1

 

Bowl Pairings

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC San Jose St. * vs. Georgia St.
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Arizona *
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU Utah vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Utah St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Temple vs. Toledo
Poinsettia MWC Army Boise St. vs. Northern Illinois
GoDaddy MAC SBC Bowling Green vs. Georgia Southern
Bahamas CUSA MAC Middle Tennessee vs. Western Michigan
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Cincinnati vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Connecticut vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Miami vs. Washington St.
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Washington * vs. Southern Miss.
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Tulsa * vs. Virginia Tech
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Nebraska vs. UCLA
Military ACC AAC Pittsburgh vs. Navy
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Central Michigan * vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC California * vs. Air Force
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 North Carolina vs. Baylor
Arizona CUSA MWC Colorado St. * vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. vs. Mississippi St.
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Louisville vs. Texas A&M
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Florida St. vs. Houston
Cotton Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. Michigan St.
Orange Playoff Playoff Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. USC
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Tennessee
Citrus Big Ten SEC Michigan vs. Florida
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. vs. Ole Miss
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Ohio St. vs. Notre Dame
TaxSlayer ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. vs. Georgia
Liberty Big 12 SEC Kansas St. vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia vs. Arizona St.
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Michigan St. vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

FCS Playoffs

2nd Round    
Jacksonville St. 41 ot
Chattanooga 35  
     
Charleston Sou. 14  
Citadel 6  
     
Colgate 44  
James Madison 38  
     
Sam Houston 34  
McNeese St. 29  
     
North Dakota St. 37  
Montana 6  
     
Northern Iowa 29  
Portland St. 17  
     
Richmond 48  
William & Mary 13  
     
Illinois St. 36  
Western Illinois 19  

 

Quarterfinal Round Games

Quarterfinals D. 11-13 All times ET
@ Illinois St. 10-2 D.11 7:30 PM
Richmond 9-3 ESPN3
     
@ Sam Houston 10-3 D.12 8PM
Colgate 9-4  No TV
     
@ Jacksonville St. 11-1 D.11 8 PM
Charleston Southern 10-2 ESPN2
     
@ North Dakota St. 10-2 D.13 12 AM
Northern Iowa 9-4 ESPN

 

 

December 19, 2013

PiRate Ratings–2013-14 College Football Bowl Preview

The Bowl Simulator Returns

We were fortunate this week to get a turn on the master computer and simulate the 35 bowl games.  We simulated each bowl 100 times and will present the number of wins for both sides, the average score for both sides, and the outlier scores for both sides on all 35 games.

 

In addition, we will present the normal three PiRate Ratings, as well as viewing information so you can know when and where to tune in.

 

Simulated Playoffs

While we were at it, we simulated the PiRate Version of the NCAA playoffs, as well as the future actual version of four teams.  Check back for the results of those two tournaments on Friday afternoon.

 

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

New Mexico

12/21/2013

Albuquerque

2:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Colorado St. (7-6) vs. Washington St. (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Washington St. 74  Colorado St. 26

Average Score

Washington St. 33.9  Colorado St. 24.6

Outlier A

Washington St. 52-24

Outlier B

Colorado St. 38-33

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Washington St. by 6.9

PiRate Mean

Washington St. by 6.0

PiRate Bias

Washington St. by 6.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME—ET

TV

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

12/21/2013

Las Vegas

3:30pm

ABC

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Fresno St. (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

USC 68  Fresno St. 32

Average Score

USC 30.9  Fresno St. 26.6

Outlier A

USC 45 Fresno St. 24

Outlier B

Fresno St. 37 USC 21

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

USC by 10.7

PiRate Mean

USC by 7.3

PiRate Bias

USC by 10.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Famous Idaho Potato

12/21/2013

Boise, ID

5:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

San Diego St. (7-5) vs. Buffalo (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Buffalo 53  San Diego St. 47

Average Score

Buffalo 25.3  San Diego St. 24.2

Outlier A

Buffalo 34-10

Outlier B

San Diego St. 27-13

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Buffalo by 6.0

PiRate Mean

Buffalo by 9.2

PiRate Bias

Buffalo by 6.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

New Orleans

12/21/2013

New Orleans

9:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

UL-Lafayette (8-4) vs. Tulane (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Tulane 54  UL-Lafayette 46

Average Score

Tulane 27.4  UL-Lafayette 26.2

Outlier A

Tulane 35-13

Outlier B

UL-Lafayette 27-16

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Tulane by 2.8

PiRate Mean

Tulane by 4.7

PiRate Bias

Tulane by 3.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

12/23/2013

St. Petersburg

2:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

East Carolina 89  Ohio 11

Average Score

East Carolina 37.3  Ohio 22.7

Outlier A

East Carolina 61-20

Outlier B

Ohio 34-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

East Carolina by 19.9

PiRate Mean

East Carolina by 18.9

PiRate Bias

East Carolina by 20.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Hawaii

12/24/2013

Honolulu

8:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Boise St. (8-4) vs. Oregon St. (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Oregon St. 52  Boise St. 48

Average Score

Oregon St. 26.2  Boise St. 25.5

Outlier A

Oregon St. 38-20

Outlier B

Boise St. 40-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oregon St. by 9.6

PiRate Mean

Oregon St. by 5.0

PiRate Bias

Oregon St. by 7.0

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Little Caesars Pizza

12/26/2013

Detroit

6:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Bowling Green (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Bowling Green 60  Pittsburgh 40

Average Score

Bowling Green 33.9  Pittsburgh 29.7

Outlier A

Bowling Green 44-20

Outlier B

Pittsburgh 34-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Bowling Green by 11.0

PiRate Mean

Bowling Green by 13.3

PiRate Bias

Bowling Green by 12.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Poinsettia

12/26/2013

San Diego

9:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Utah St. (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Utah St. 53  Northern Illinois 47

Average Score

Northern Illinois 32.7  Utah St. 32.4

Outlier A

Utah St. 42-21

Outlier B

Northern Illinois 48-20

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Utah St. by 3.8

PiRate Mean

Utah St. by 0.4

PiRate Bias

Utah St. by 4.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Military Bowl

12/27/2013

Washington, DC

2:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Maryland (7-5) vs. Marshall (9-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Marshall 54  Maryland 46

Average Score

Marshall 27.3  Maryland 26.7

Outlier A

Marshall 35-14

Outlier B

Maryland 27-10

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Marshall by 1.0

PiRate Mean

Marshall by 1.2

PiRate Bias

Marshall by 1.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Texas

12/27/2013

Houston

6:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Minnesota (8-4) vs. Syracuse (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Minnesota 59  Syracuse 41

Average Score

Minnesota 19.7  Syracuse 16.6

Outlier A

Minnesota 27-3

Outlier B

Syracuse 20-9

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Minnesota by 7.8

PiRate Mean

Minnesota by 13.1

PiRate Bias

Minnesota by 7.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

12/27/2013

San Francisco

9:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Washington (8-4) vs. BYU (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Washington 64  BYU 36

Average Score

Washington 29.4  BYU 25.5

Outlier A

Washington 31-13

Outlier B

BYU 28-18

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Washington by 10.6

PiRate Mean

Washington by 7.8

PiRate Bias

Washington by 10.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Pinstripe

12/28/2013

Bronx

12:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Rutgers (6-6) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Notre Dame 88  Rutgers 12

Average Score

Notre Dame 36.7  Rutgers 20.4

Outlier A

Notre Dame 48-7

Outlier B

Rutgers 28-22

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Notre Dame by 20.4

PiRate Mean

Notre Dame by 16.4

PiRate Bias

Notre Dame by 19.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Belk

12/28/2013

Charlotte

3:20pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Cincinnati 52  North Carolina 48

Average Score

Cincinnati 27.0 North Carolina 26.2

Outlier A

Cincinnati 34-12

Outlier B

North Carolina 28-13

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

North Carolina by 2.1

PiRate Mean

North Carolina by 2.5

PiRate Bias

North Carolina by 3.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Russell Athletic

12/28/2013

Orlando

6:45pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Louisville (11-1) vs. Miami (9-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Miami 56 Louisville 44

Average Score

Miami 30.4  Louisville 27.2

Outlier A

Miami 38-20

Outlier B

Louisville 41-24

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Louisville by 0.5

PiRate Mean

Miami by 0.8

PiRate Bias

Louisville by 0.1

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

12/28/2013

Tempe, AZ

10:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Kansas St. (7-5) vs. Michigan (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Michigan 50 Kansas St. 50

Average Score

Michigan 25.6  Kansas St. 25.3

Outlier A

Michigan 38-17

Outlier B

Kansas St. 28-6

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Kansas St. by 0.8

PiRate Mean

Michigan by 6.7

PiRate Bias

Kansas St. by 0.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Armed Forces

12/30/2013

Ft. Worth, TX

11:45am

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Navy (8-4) vs. Middle Tennessee (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Navy 61  Middle Tennessee 39

Average Score

Navy 32.9  Middle Tennessee 27.1

Outlier A

Navy 40-21

Outlier B

Middle Tennessee 37-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Navy by 8.5

PiRate Mean

Navy by 5.9

PiRate Bias

Navy by 8.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Music City

12/30/2013

Nashville

3:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Ole Miss (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ole Miss 73  Georgia Tech 27

Average Score

Ole Miss 38.2  Georgia Tech 29.7

Outlier A

Ole Miss 49-20

Outlier B

Georgia Tech 38-23

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ole Miss by 6.4

PiRate Mean

Ole Miss by 3.8

PiRate Bias

Ole Miss by 5.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Alamo

12/30/2013

San Antonio

6:45pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Texas (8-4) vs. Oregon (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Oregon 84  Texas 16

Average Score

Oregon 43.7  Texas 28.4

Outlier A

Oregon 62-31

Outlier B

Texas 41-32

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oregon by 6.6

PiRate Mean

Oregon by 10.2

PiRate Bias

Oregon by 7.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Holiday

12/30/2013

San Diego

10:15pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Arizona St. (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Arizona St. 78  Texas Tech 22

Average Score

Arizona St. 32.0  Texas Tech 24.7

Outlier A

Arizona St. 30-10

Outlier B

Texas Tech 27-19

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Arizona St. by 18.8

PiRate Mean

Arizona St. by 22.6

PiRate Bias

Arizona St. by 19.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

12/31/2013

Shreveport, LA

12:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Boston College (7-5) vs. Arizona (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Arizona 68  Boston College 32

Average Score

Arizona 25.6  Boston College 23.8

Outlier A

Arizona 35-17

Outlier B

Boston College 24-7

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Arizona by 12.6

PiRate Mean

Arizona by 8.6

PiRate Bias

Arizona by 10.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Sun

12/31/2013

El Paso, TX

2:00pm

CBS

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. UCLA (9-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

UCLA 82  Virginia Tech 18

Average Score

UCLA 31.3  Virginia Tech 21.6

Outlier A

UCLA 48-14

Outlier B

Virginia Tech 24-16

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

UCLA by 14.6

PiRate Mean

UCLA by 9.7

PiRate Bias

UCLA by 14.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Liberty

12/31/2013

Memphis

4:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Mississippi St. (6-6) vs. Rice (10-3)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Mississippi St. 57  Rice 43

Average Score

Mississippi St. 27.7  Rice 23.9

Outlier A

Mississippi St. 34-13

Outlier B

Rice 34-20

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Mississippi St. by 15.0

PiRate Mean

Mississippi St. by 5.3

PiRate Bias

Mississippi St. by 10.6

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Chick-fil-A

12/31/2013

Atlanta

8:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Texas A&M 91  Duke 9

Average Score

Texas A&M 42.5  Duke 22.4

Outlier A

Texas A&M 56-10

Outlier B

Duke 34-29

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Texas A&M by 12.9

PiRate Mean

Texas A&M by 8.7

PiRate Bias

Texas A&M by 11.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Heart Of Dallas

1/1/2014

Dallas

12:00pm

ESPN-U

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

North Texas (8-4) vs. UNLV (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

North Texas 62  UNLV 38

Average Score

North Texas 28.2  UNLV 22.8

Outlier A

North Texas 38-17

Outlier B

UNLV 34-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

North Texas by 10.8

PiRate Mean

North Texas by 11.7

PiRate Bias

North Texas by 10.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Gator

1/1/2014

Jacksonville

12:00pm

ESPN-2

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Nebraska (8-4) vs. Georgia (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Nebraska 54  Georgia 46

Average Score

Nebraska 33.2  Georgia 33.0

Outlier A

Nebraska 41-23

Outlier B

Georgia 38-22

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Georgia by 9.3

PiRate Mean

Georgia by 9.0

PiRate Bias

Georgia by 10.7

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Outback

1/1/2014

Tampa

1:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

LSU (9-3) vs. Iowa (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

LSU 58  Iowa 42

Average Score

LSU 26.7  Iowa 24.3

Outlier A

LSU 31-10

Outlier B

Iowa 27-10

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

LSU by 13.7

PiRate Mean

LSU by 12.4

PiRate Bias

LSU by 14.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Capital One

1/1/2014

Orlando

1:00pm

ABC

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

South Carolina 60  Wisconsin 40

Average Score

South Carolina 26.1  Wisconsin 23.7

Outlier A

South Carolina 34-14

Outlier B

Wisconsin 30-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

South Carolina by 0.8

PiRate Mean

South Carolina by 1.9

PiRate Bias

South Carolina by 0.3

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Rose

1/1/2014

Pasadena, CA

5:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Michigan St. (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Stanford 53  Michigan St. 47

Average Score

Stanford 23.7  Michigan St. 23.4

Outlier A

Stanford 27-7

Outlier B

Michigan St. 24-9

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Stanford by 8.9

PiRate Mean

Stanford by 2.6

PiRate Bias

Stanford by 8.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Fiesta

1/1/2014

Glendale, AZ

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Baylor (11-1) vs. Central Florida (11-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Baylor 94  Central Florida 6

Average Score

Baylor 43.6  Central Florida 20.8

Outlier A

Baylor 61-17

Outlier B

Central Florida 31-27

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Baylor by 21.1

PiRate Mean

Baylor by 11.6

PiRate Bias

Baylor by 21.4

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Sugar

1/2/2014

New Orleans

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Alabama (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Alabama 79  Oklahoma 21

Average Score

Alabama 30.1  Oklahoma 20.0

Outlier A

Alabama 34-7

Outlier B

Oklahoma 26-17

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Alabama by 17.0

PiRate Mean

Alabama by 18.5

PiRate Bias

Alabama by 17.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Cotton

1/3/2014

Arlington, TX

7:30pm

Fox

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Missouri (11-2) vs. Oklahoma St. (10-2)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Missouri 53 Oklahoma St. 47

Average Score

Missouri 29.9  Oklahoma St. 29.1

Outlier A

Missouri 41-22

Outlier B

Oklahoma St. 38-25

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Oklahoma St. by 4.3

PiRate Mean

Missouri by 1.9

PiRate Bias

Oklahoma St. by 4.8

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

Orange

1/3/2014

Miami

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Clemson (10-2) vs. Ohio St. (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ohio St. 76  Clemson 24

Average Score

Ohio St. 37.6  Clemson 29.4

Outlier A

Ohio St. 45-20

Outlier B

Clemson 34-26

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ohio St. by 5.7

PiRate Mean

Ohio St. by 4.2

PiRate Bias

Ohio St. by 4.5

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

BBVA Compass Bowl

1/4/2014

Birmingham

1:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Vanderbilt (8-4) vs. Houston (8-4)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Houston 58  Vanderbilt 42

Average Score

Houston 27.4  Vanderbilt 25.8

Outlier A

Houston 34-17

Outlier B

Vanderbilt 38-23

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Vanderbilt by 3.8

PiRate Mean

Houston by 3.2

PiRate Bias

Vanderbilt by 2.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

GoDaddy.com

1/5/2014

Mobile, AL

9:00pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Ball St. (10-2) vs. Arkansas St. (7-5)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Ball St. 61  Arkansas St. 39

Average Score

Ball St. 32.7  Arkansas St. 27.0

Outlier A

Ball St. 40-21

Outlier B

Arkansas St. 33-14

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Ball St. by 11.2

PiRate Mean

Ball St. by 15.0

PiRate Bias

Ball St. by 12.2

*****************************************************************

GAME

DATE

SITE

TIME–ET

TV

BCS Championship

1/6/2014

Pasadena, CA

8:30pm

ESPN

 

 

 

 

 

Opponents:

Florida St. (13-0) vs. Auburn (12-1)

 

 

 

 

 

Simulator

Wins

Florida St. 55  Auburn 45

Average Score

Florida St. 39.7  Auburn 38.8

Outlier A

Florida St. 49-24

Outlier B

Auburn 52-37

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

Florida St. by 12.8

PiRate Mean

Florida St. by 17.2

PiRate Bias

Florida St. by 14.0

 

 

 

 

 

Notes:

Teams in Italics are at-large selections

 

1 Little Caesar’s Simulation went 4 OT

 

1 Belk Bowl Simulation went 3 OT

 

2 Gator Bowl Simulations went 3 OT

 

1 Cotton Bowl Simulation went 5 OT

 

1 National Championship Game went 3 OT

December 12, 2012

PiRate Ratings 2012-2013 College Football Bowl Preview

Bowl Season commences Saturday afternoon, and in the next four weeks, 35 of these contests will be played.  A few of these games will be exciting, but most will be duds this year.  Some will take place with interim coaches on both sides of the field, while in the Rose Bowl, former Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez will come out of retirement for one game (receiving $118,000 for his efforts).

Here is the complete rundown for this season, with all the bowl information you need to know, when to tune in, and where.  Of course, if you are like us and wish there were real NFL-style playoffs (or even FCS style playoffs) for the FBS, you need to check back here Friday afternoon for the second installment of our PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Playoffs.  Round One was played last Friday, and you can check out the results at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-round-one/

2012-2013 Bowl Games

Favorite

Underdog

PiRate

Vintage

Line

Bowls 2012-2013

New Mexico Bowl—Albuquerque

Sat, Dec. 15

1:00 PM EST

ESPN

Arizona

Nevada

14.6

7.5

9 1/2

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl—Boise

Sat, Dec. 15

4:30 PM EST

ESPN

Utah St.

Toledo

8.5

12

10

Poinsettia Bowl–San Diego

Thu, Dec. 20

8:00 PM EST

ESPN

B Y U

San Diego St.

8.7

-1.0

2 1/2

Beef O’Brady’s Bowl–St. Petersburg

Fri, Dec. 21

7:30 PM EST

ESPN

Central Fla.

Ball St.

6.6

5.0

7   

New Orleans Bowl

Sat, Dec. 22

12:00 PM EST

ESPN

UL-Lafayette

East Carolina

3.4

0.5

6   

MAACO Bowl–Las Vegas

Sat, Dec. 22

3:30 PM EST

ESPN

Washington

Boise St.

2.6

-2.5

-5   

Hawaii Bowl—Honolulu

Mon, Dec. 24

8:00 PM EST

ESPN

Fresno St.

S M U

9.7

17.0

12   

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl—Detroit

Wed, Dec. 26

7:30 PM EST

ESPN

Western Ky.

Central Mich.

4.8

-1.5

5 1/2

Military Bowl–Washington, DC

Thu, Dec. 27

3:00 PM EST

ESPN

San Jose St.

Bowling Green

6.8

5.0

7   

Belk Bowl—Charlotte

Thu, Dec. 27

6:30 PM EST

ESPN

Cincinnati

Duke

6.4

7.0

7 1/2

Holiday Bowl–San Diego

Thu, Dec. 27

9:45 PM EST

ESPN

Baylor

U C L A

2.3

-5.0

Pk

Independence Bowl—Shreveport

Fri, Dec. 28

2:00 PM EST

ESPN

UL-Monroe

Ohio U

7.4

1.0

7   

Russell Athletic Bowl—Orlando

Fri, Dec. 28

5:30 PM EST

ESPN

Rutgers

Va. Tech

1.0

-4.0

-2 1/2

Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl—Houston

Fri, Dec. 28

9:00 PM EST

ESPN

Texas Tech

Minnesota

14.2

8.0

13   

Armed Forces Bowl–Ft. Worth

Sat, Dec. 29

11:45 AM EST

ESPN

Rice

Air Force

6.4

5.0

-1   

Pinstripe Bowl—Bronx

Sat, Dec. 29

3:15 PM EST

ESPN 2

West Virginia

Syracuse

9.0

4.0

4   

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl–San Francisco

Sat, Dec. 29

4:00 PM EST

ESPN

Arizona St.

Navy

19.2

13.0

Pk

Alamo Bowl–San Antonio

Sat, Dec. 29

6:45 PM EST

ESPN

Texas

Oregon St.

3.1

-2.5

-2   

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl—Tempe

Sat, Dec. 29

10:15 PM EST

ESPN

T C U

Michigan St.

4.0

1.5

2 1/2

Music City Bowl—Nashville

Mon, Dec. 31

12:00 PM EST

ESPN

Vanderbilt

N. Carolina St.

11.7

9.5

6 1/2

Sun Bowl–El Paso

Mon, Dec. 31

2:00 PM EST

CBS

Southern Cal

Ga. Tech

11.7

8.0

10   

Liberty Bowl—Memphis

Mon, Dec. 31

3:30 PM EST

ESPN

Iowa St.

Tulsa

5.5

3.0

Pk

Chick-fil-A Bowl—Atlanta

Mon, Dec. 31

7:30 PM EST

ESPN

L S U

Clemson

3.9

10.5

4   

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Tue, Jan. 1

12:00 PM EST

ESPN-U

Oklahoma St.

Purdue

22.9

16.5

16 1/2

Gator Bowl—Jacksonville

Tue, Jan. 1

12:00 PM EST

ESPN 2

Mississippi St.

Northwestern

1.0

-3.5

2   

Capital One Bowl—Orlando

Tue, Jan. 1

1:00 PM EST

ABC

Georgia

Nebraska

13.6

12.0

10   

Outback Bowl—Tampa

Tue, Jan. 1

1:00 PM EST

ESPN

South Carolina

Michigan

8.6

3.5

5   

Rose Bowl—Pasadena

Tue, Jan. 1

5:00 PM EST

ESPN

Stanford

Wisconsin

4.4

10.0

6 1/2

Orange Bowl—Miami

Tue, Jan. 1

8:30 PM EST

ESPN

Florida St.

Northern Illinois

15.9

11.0

13 1/2

Sugar Bowl–New Orleans

Wed, Jan. 2

8:30 PM EST

ESPN

Florida

Louisville

18.6

21.5

13 1/2

Fiesta Bowl–Glendale

Thu, Jan. 3

8:30 PM EST

ESPN

Oregon

Kansas St.

3.7

3.0

9   

Cotton Bowl—Arlington

Fri, Jan. 4

8:00 PM EST

Fox

Texas A&M

Oklahoma

1.3

5.0

4 1/2

BBVA Compass Bowl—Birmingham

Sat, Jan. 5

1:00 PM EST

ESPN

Ole Miss

Pittsburgh

4.0

11.5

3 1/2

GoDaddy.com Bowl—Mobile

Sun, Jan. 6

9:00 PM EST

ESPN

Arkansas St.

Kent St.

1.5

-3.5

4   

National Championship Game—Miami

Mon, Jan. 7

8:30 PM EST

ESPN

Alabama

Notre Dame

7.9

2.0

9 1/2

December 4, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Football: December 8, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

P i R a t e
# Team PiRate
1 Alabama 133.1
2 Oregon   131.7
3 Texas A&M 128.3
4 Kansas St. 128.0
5 Oklahoma 127.0
6 Notre Dame 125.2
7 Georgia 125.2
8 L S U   123.2
9 Oklahoma St. 123.2
10 South Carolina 123.0
11 Florida St. 120.7
12 Florida 120.5
13 Stanford 120.5
14 Clemson   119.3
15 U S C 117.9
16 Baylor 117.2
17 Texas 117.0
18 Wisconsin   116.6
19 Oregon St. 115.9
20 U C L A 114.9
21 West Virginia 114.9
22 Ohio St. 114.8
23 Michigan 114.4
24 T C U 114.1
25 Vanderbilt 113.0
26 B Y U 112.3
27 Nebraska 111.6
28 Arizona St. 110.3
29 Michigan St. 110.1
30 Mississippi St. 109.8
31 Arizona 109.7
32 Penn St. 109.6
33 Iowa St. 109.5
34 Texas Tech 109.3
35 Washington 109.2
36 Northwestern 108.8
37 Ole Miss 108.4
38 North Carolina 107.9
39 Tennessee 107.3
40 Missouri 107.1
41 Boise St. 106.6
42 Georgia Tech 106.2
43 Syracuse 105.9
44 Northern Illinois   105.8
45 Fresno St. 105.7
46 Utah 105.5
47 Central Florida 105.3
48 Utah St. 105.2
49 Pittsburgh 104.9
50 Cincinnati 104.6
51 Rutgers 104.3
52 Miami-FL 104.2
53 Tulsa 104.0
54 North Carolina St. 103.8
55 Virginia Tech 103.3
56 Louisiana Tech   103.1
57 San Jose St. 102.7
58 Arkansas 102.4
59 Louisville 101.9
60 Arkansas St. 101.2
61 San Diego St. 100.6
62 Purdue 100.3
63 Kent St. 99.7
64 Ball St. 99.7
65 California 99.6
66 Auburn 98.2
67 Iowa 97.4
68 Toledo 96.7
69 Duke 96.7
70 Virginia 96.3
71 Minnesota 96.1
72 S M U 96.0
73 Bowling Green 95.9
74 Connecticut 95.6
75 South Florida 95.5
76 Boston College 95.4
77 UL-Lafayette 95.3
78 Nevada 95.1
79 Maryland 95.1
80 Louisiana-Monroe 94.6
81 Washington St. 93.8
82 Kansas 93.7
83 East Carolina 93.4
84 Rice 92.5
85 Navy 92.1
86 Indiana 91.8
87 Western Kentucky 91.5
88 Houston 90.1
89 Western Michigan 89.7
90 Wake Forest 89.4
91 Ohio U 89.2
92 Kentucky 89.2
93 Temple 89.1
94 Marshall 88.9
95 Troy 88.9
96 Illinois 88.5
97 U T E P 87.6
98 Wyoming 87.5
99 Air Force 87.1
100 North Texas 85.9
101 Central Michigan 85.7
102 Buffalo 85.2
103 Florida International 85.2
104 Army 84.3
105 Miami (O) 84.3
106 Colorado St. 83.5
107 Middle Tennessee 83.2
108 U A B 83.0
109 New Mexico 82.6
110 Texas St. 82.3
111 Memphis 82.0
112 Southern Mississippi   80.8
113 Colorado 80.1
114 Hawaii 79.8
115 Eastern Michigan 79.7
116 Florida Atlantic 79.6
117 UNLV 78.8
118 U T S A 77.7
119 Tulane 75.3
120 Akron 74.3
121 South Alabama 74.2
122 Idaho 73.2
123 New Mexico St. 69.3
124 Massachusetts 68.1

 

V i n t a g e
# Team Vintage
1 Alabama 128.0
2 Georgia  127.0
3 Notre Dame 126.0
4 Texas A&M 125.5
5 Oregon 125.0
6 L S U 124.5
7 Ohio St. 124.5
8 Stanford 124.0
9 Florida  123.5
10 Kansas St. 122.0
11 South Carolina 121.5
12 Oklahoma 120.5
13 Michigan 118.0
14 Oklahoma St. 116.0
15 Florida St. 115.5
16 U C L A 115.0
17 Nebraska 115.0
18 Wisconsin 114.5
19 Vanderbilt 114.5
20 Clemson 114.0
21 Oregon St. 113.5
22 Penn St. 113.5
23 Northwestern 112.5
24 Southern Cal 112.0
25 B Y U 111.5
26 T C U 111.0
27 Ole Miss 110.5
28 Baylor 110.0
29 Boise St. 109.5
30 Fresno St. 109.5
31 San Diego St. 109.5
32 Michigan St. 109.5
33 Mississippi St. 109.0
34 Texas 109.0
35 West Virginia 108.5
36 Utah St. 108.5
37 Arizona St. 108.0
38 North Carolina St. 107.5
39 Arizona 107.5
40 Cincinnati 107.0
41 Washington 107.0
42 North Carolina 106.5
43 Kent St. 106.0
44 Northern Illinois 105.5
45 Miami 105.0
46 Texas Tech 105.0
47 Virginia Tech 105.0
48 San Jose St. 104.5
49 Syracuse 104.5
50 Georgia Tech 104.0
51 Utah 104.0
52 Central Florida 103.5
53 Iowa St. 103.5
54 Missouri 103.0
55 Arkansas 103.0
56 Arkansas St. 102.5
57 Louisiana Tech 102.5
58 Louisville 102.0
59 Rutgers 101.0
60 Tulsa 100.5
61 Nevada 100.0
62 Virginia 100.0
63 Pittsburgh 99.5
64 Bowling Green 99.5
65 Ball St. 99.5
66 Purdue 99.5
67 Tennessee 99.0
68 Duke 98.5
69 Minnesota 98.0
70 Boston College 97.5
71 Toledo 96.5
72 California 96.0
73 East Carolina 95.0
74 Navy 95.0
75 Rice 94.0
76 UL-Lafayette 94.0
77 Indiana 94.0
78 Connecticut 93.5
79 Iowa 93.5
80 Ohio U 93.0
81 Temple 93.0
82 Kansas 93.0
83 S M U 92.5
84 Wake Forest 92.5
85 Auburn 92.5
86 UL-Monroe 92.0
87 Maryland 91.5
88 Kentucky 91.0
89 Air Force 90.0
90 Middle Tennessee 90.0
91 Washington St. 90.0
92 Central Michigan 89.5
93 Illinois 89.5
94 Western Kentucky 89.0
95 Troy 88.5
96 South Florida 88.5
97 Colorado 88.5
98 Marshall 88.0
99 Wyoming 88.0
100 Colorado St. 88.0
101 U T S A 87.5
102 Buffalo 87.5
103 Army 87.0
104 Texas St. 86.5
105 Memphis 86.0
106 Miami (O) 85.0
107 Houston 84.5
108 New Mexico 84.5
109 U A B 83.5
110 Western Michigan 83.5
111 Florida Int’l 83.0
112 U N L V 82.5
113 U T E P 82.0
114 Hawaii 80.5
115 Eastern Michigan 80.5
116 Florida Atlantic 80.0
117 North Texas 79.0
118 Akron 78.5
119 Tulane 76.0
120 Massachusetts 75.5
121 Idaho 74.5
122 Southern Miss. 74.5
123 South Alabama 74.0
124 New Mexico St. 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Florida St. 7-1 11-2 120.7 115.5
Clemson   7-1 10-2 119.3 114.0
North Carolina St. 4-4 7-5 103.8 107.5
Boston College 1-7 2-10 95.4 97.5
Maryland 2-6 4-8 95.1 91.5
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7 89.4 92.5
         
Coastal Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
North Carolina 5-3 8-4 107.9 106.5
Georgia Tech 5-3 6-7 106.2 104.0
Miami-FL 5-3 8-4 104.2 105.0
Virginia Tech 4-4 6-6 103.3 105.0
Duke 3-5 6-6 96.7 98.5
Virginia 2-6 4-8 96.3 100.0
         
         
Conference Means 103.16   103.19 103.1

 

 

Big East Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Syracuse 5-2 7-5 105.9 104.5
Pittsburgh 3-4 6-6 104.9 99.5
Cincinnati 5-2 9-3 104.6 107.0
Rutgers 5-2 9-3 104.3 101.0
Louisville 5-2 10-2 101.9 102.0
Connecticut 2-5 5-7 95.6 93.5
South Florida 1-6 3-9 95.5 88.5
Temple 2-5 4-7 89.1 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 99.425   100.23 98.6

 

 

Big Ten
         
Leaders Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Wisconsin   4-4 8-5 116.6 114.5
Ohio St. 8-0 12-0 114.8 124.5
Penn St. 6-2 8-4 109.6 113.5
Purdue 3-5 6-6 100.3 99.5
Indiana 2-6 4-8 91.8 94.0
Illinois 0-8 2-10 88.5 89.5
         
Legends Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Michigan 6-2 8-4 114.4 118.0
Nebraska 7-1 10-3 111.6 115.0
Michigan St. 3-5 6-6 110.1 109.5
Northwestern 5-3 9-3 108.8 112.5
Iowa 2-6 4-8 97.4 93.5
Minnesota 2-6 6-6 96.1 98.0
         
Conference Means 105.917   105.00 106.8

 

 

Big 12
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kansas St. 8-1 11-1 128.0 122.0
Oklahoma 8-1 10-2 127.0 120.5
Oklahoma St. 5-4 7-5 123.2 116.0
Baylor 4-5 7-5 117.2 110.0
Texas 5-4 8-4 117.0 109.0
West Virginia 4-5 7-5 114.9 108.5
T C U 4-5 7-5 114.1 111.0
Iowa St. 3-6 6-6 109.5 103.5
Texas Tech 4-5 7-5 109.3 105.0
Kansas 0-9 1-11 93.7 93.0
         
         
Conference Means 112.62   115.39 109.9

 

 

Conference USA
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Central Florida 7-1 9-4 105.3 103.5
East Carolina 7-1 8-4 93.4 95.0
Marshall 4-4 5-7 88.9 88.0
U A B 2-6 3-9 83.0 83.5
Memphis 4-4 4-8 82.0 86.0
Southern Mississippi   0-8 0-12 80.8 74.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Tulsa 7-1 10-3 104.0 100.5
S M U 5-3 6-6 96.0 92.5
Rice 4-4 6-6 92.5 94.0
Houston 4-4 5-7 90.1 84.5
U T E P 2-6 3-9 87.6 82.0
Tulane 2-6 2-10 75.3 76.0
         
         
Conference Means 89.1208   89.91 88.3

 

 

Independents
         
Team   Overall Rating Vintage
Notre Dame   12-0 125.2 126.0
B Y U   7-5 112.3 111.5
Navy   7-4 92.1 95.0
Army   2-9 84.3 87.0
         
         
Conference Means 104.175   103.48 104.9

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Kent St. 8-0 11-2 99.7 106.0
Bowling Green 6-2 8-4 95.9 99.5
Ohio U 4-4 8-4 89.2 93.0
Buffalo 3-5 4-8 85.2 87.5
Miami (O) 3-5 4-8 84.3 85.0
Akron 0-8 1-11 74.3 78.5
Massachusetts 1-7 1-11 68.1 75.5
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Northern Illinois   8-0 12-1 105.8 105.5
Ball St. 6-2 9-3 99.7 99.5
Toledo 6-2 9-3 96.7 96.5
Western Michigan 2-6 4-8 89.7 83.5
Central Michigan 4-4 6-6 85.7 89.5
Eastern Michigan 1-7 2-10 79.7 80.5
         
         
Conference Means 89.7692   88.77 90.8

 

 

Mountain West Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Boise St. 7-1 10-2 106.6 109.5
Fresno St. 7-1 9-3 105.7 109.5
San Diego St. 7-1 9-3 100.6 109.5
Nevada 4-4 7-5 95.1 100.0
Wyoming 3-5 4-8 87.5 88.0
Air Force 5-3 6-6 87.1 90.0
Colorado St. 3-5 4-8 83.5 88.0
New Mexico 1-7 4-9 82.6 84.5
Hawaii 1-7 3-9 79.8 80.5
UNLV 2-6 2-11 78.8 82.5
         
         
Conference Means 92.465   90.73 94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Oregon   8-1 11-1 131.7 125.0
Stanford 8-1 11-2 120.5 124.0
Oregon St. 6-3 9-3 115.9 113.5
Washington 5-4 7-5 109.2 107.0
California 2-7 3-9 99.6 96.0
Washington St. 1-8 3-9 93.8 90.0
         
South Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
U S C 5-4 7-5 117.9 112.0
U C L A 6-3 9-4 114.9 115.0
Arizona St. 5-4 7-5 110.3 108.0
Arizona 4-5 7-5 109.7 107.5
Utah 3-6 5-7 105.5 104.0
Colorado 1-8 1-11 80.1 88.5
         
         
Conference Means 108.317   109.09 107.5

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Georgia 7-1 11-2 125.2 127.0
South Carolina 6-2 10-2 123.0 121.5
Florida 7-1 11-1 120.5 123.5
Vanderbilt 5-3 8-4 113.0 114.5
Tennessee 1-7 5-7 107.3 99.0
Missouri 2-6 5-7 107.1 103.0
Kentucky 0-8 2-10 89.2 91.0
         
West Division        
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Alabama 7-1 12-1 133.1 128.0
Texas A&M 6-2 10-2 128.3 125.5
L S U   6-2 10-2 123.2 124.5
Mississippi St. 4-4 8-4 109.8 109.0
Ole Miss 3-5 6-6 108.4 110.5
Arkansas 2-6 4-8 102.4 103.0
Auburn 0-8 3-9 98.2 92.5
         
         
Conference Means 112.9   113.48 112.3

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Arkansas St. 7-1 9-3 101.2 102.5
UL-Lafayette 6-2 8-4 95.3 94.0
Louisiana-Monroe 6-2 8-4 94.6 92.0
Western Kentucky 4-4 7-5 91.5 89.0
Troy 3-5 5-7 88.9 88.5
Middle Tennessee 6-2 8-4 83.2 90.0
North Texas 3-5 4-8 85.9 79.0
Florida International 2-6 3-9 85.2 83.0
Florida Atlantic 2-6 3-9 79.6 80.0
South Alabama 1-7 2-11 74.2 74.0
         
         
Conference Means 87.58   87.96 87.2

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
         
Team Conf. Overall Rating Vintage
Utah St. 6-0 10-2 105.2 108.5
Louisiana Tech   4-2 9-3 103.1 102.5
San Jose St. 5-1 10-2 102.7 104.5
Texas St. 2-4 4-8 82.3 86.5
U T S A 3-3 8-4 77.7 87.5
Idaho 1-5 1-11 73.2 74.5
New Mexico St. 0-6 1-11 69.3 67.0
         
         
Conference Means 88.8929   87.64 90.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spread

Favorite Underdog PiRate Vintage Line
Navy (Philadelphia) Army 7.8 8.0 7   

 

The Bowls

Day Date Time EST Bowl City Network Team Team
Sat D. 15 1:00 PM New Mexico Albuquerque ESPN Nevada Arizona
Sat D. 15 4:30 PM Famous Idaho Potato Boise ESPN Toledo Utah St.
Thu D. 20 8:00 PM Poinsettia San Diego ESPN San Diego St. B Y U
Fri D. 21 7:30 PM Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg ESPN Ball St. Central Fla.
Sat D. 22 12:00 PM New Orleans New Orleans ESPN UL-Lafayette East Carolina
Sat D. 22 3:30 PM MAACO Las Vegas ESPN Boise St. Washington
Mon D. 24 8:00 PM Hawaii Honolulu ESPN Fresno St. S M U
Wed D. 26 7:30 PM Little Caesar’s Pizza Detroit ESPN Western Ky. Central Mich.
Thu D. 27 3:00 PM Military Washington, DC ESPN San Jose St. Bowling Green
Thu D. 27 6:30 PM Belk Charlotte ESPN Duke Cincinnati
Thu D. 27 9:45 PM Holiday San Diego ESPN U C L A Baylor
Fri D. 28 2:00 PM Independence Shreveport ESPN UL-Monroe Ohio U
Fri D. 28 5:30 PM Russell Athletic Orlando ESPN Rutgers Va. Tech
Fri D. 28 9:00 PM Meineke Car Care of Texas Houston ESPN Minnesota Texas Tech
Sat D. 29 11:45 AM Armed Forces Ft. Worth ESPN Rice Air Force
Sat D. 29 3:15 PM Pinstripe Bronx ESPN Syracuse West Virginia
Sat D. 29 4:00 PM Kraft Fight Hunger San Francisco ESPN2 Arizona St. Navy
Sat D. 29 6:45 PM Alamo San Antonio ESPN Texas Oregon St.
Sat D. 29 10:15 PM Buffalo Wild Wings Tempe ESPN T C U Michigan St.
Mon D. 31 12:00 PM Music City Nashville ESPN Vanderbilt N. Carolina St.
Mon D. 31 2:00 PM Sun El Paso CBS Ga. Tech Southern Cal
Mon D. 31 3:30 PM Liberty Memphis ESPN Iowa St. Tulsa
Mon D. 31 7:30 PM Chick-fil-A Atlanta ESPN L S U Clemson
Tue J. 1 12:00 PM Heart of Dallas Dallas ESPNU Purdue Oklahoma St.
Tue J. 1 12:00 PM Gator Jacksonville ESPN2 Northwestern Mississippi St.
Tue J. 1 1:00 PM Capital One Orlando ABC Nebraska Georgia
Tue J. 1 1:00 PM Outback Tampa ESPN South Carolina Michigan
Tue J. 1 5:00 PM Rose Pasadena ESPN Stanford Wisconsin
Tue J. 1 8:30 PM Orange Miami ESPN Florida St. Northern Illinois
Wed J. 2 8:30 PM Sugar New Orleans ESPN Florida Louisville
Thu J. 3 8:30 PM Fiesta Glendale ESPN Kansas St. Oregon
Fri J. 4 8:00 PM Cotton Arlington Fox Oklahoma Texas A&M
Sat J. 5 1:00 PM BBVA Compass Birmingham ESPN Pittsburgh Ole Miss
Sun J. 6 9:00 PM GoDaddy.com Mobile ESPN Arkansas St. Kent St.
Mon J. 7 8:30 PM National Championship New Orleans ESPN Notre Dame Alabama

 

Note: Check back Friday, December 7 for the opening round of the PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs.

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