Tuesday, March 22, 2022 | ||
Team | Team | Spread |
Virginia | St. Bonaventure | 2.7 |
Xavier | Vanderbilt | 4.3 |
Northern Colorado | UNC Wilmington | -1.3 |
Abilene Christian | Middle Tennessee | -1.3 |
UTEP | Southern Utah | 2.2 |
March 22, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, March 22, 2022
August 26, 2021
PiRate Picks For August 28, 2021
Welcome to all the newcomers to the PiRate Ratings site for the 2021-2022 football season. Saturday, we have the fortune of having a dress rehearsal for the college football season. Nine FBS teams will be in action, as one FBS team plays an FCS opponent.
The PiRate Ratings enjoy issuing picks against the spread or money line on Thursdays each week until January. Because we are most concerned with Money Line Parlays, there are only five options to combine games this week, and many of the books do not issue a line for FBS vs. FCS games. So, in a quest to obtain the best odds, there really are just four games.
This presents multiple issues that basically make it close to impossible to issue a real wager, because the options don’t fit our paradigm. Let’s take a look.
First, before we get started, you must know and understand one thing. We offer these selections purely for the fun of it. It is math and not gambling to us. We NEVER bet on sports. We play with a pretend bankroll that never runs out. We wager the same amount of fake currency on every selection–$100. It could just as easily be $5, $10, $1000, $5000, whatever, but $100 is an easy number and typical of many wagers in real life.
Second, we urge you with everything we can say about it to NOT use this weekly feature as betting advice, unless you have legitimate advice or are a professional, and then this becomes a secondary reference.
Third, we hunt around for the best possible odds on our pretend wagers. You may or may not be able to find the same odds we do, because you would have to search at the exact same time we do. Because, we are not limited to just the legal books available to us in our state of Tennessee, where betting is legal, we might pick a parlay based on a sports book that is only for people in Nevada, or New Jersey, or even off shore.
Okay, now that you know the ground rules, here is our specialty–Money Line Parlays. The money line is different from the spread of a game, but the number is the equivalent of a spread. If a team is favored by 7 points, their money line is going to be roughly -330, and if a team is a 7-point underdog, their money line is going to be roughly +250.
How does a Money Line work? If the line is a negative number, if you wager the amount of the negative number and win, you will receive $100 plus the amount you wagered. So, if you wager on a team at -300, and you bet $300, if the bet wins, you will get back $400 (your investment money plus $100). If you lose, you are out the $300. On the other hand, if the line is a positive number, you can win that amount of money with a $100 wager. So, if the line on a team is +300, you can wager $100, and if the team wins, you receive $400 (your investment money plus $300).
In Money Line wagers, all that matters is that the team you picked wins the game, be it by 1 point or 63 points. Obviously, if Alabama is playing Mercer, the odds are going to be such that to win $100, you will have to put up maybe $100,000. So, if you bet $100 on Alabama at -100000, when Alabama wins, you receive $100.01. Would you risk $100,000 to win one penny?
When you wager on more than one money line to win as one bet, this is called a parlay. Let’s say that you like Mississippi State to beat Arkansas and Oklahoma State to beat Texas Tech. Mississippi State’s money line number is -275. Oklahoma State’s money line number is -250. By combining these two wagers into one bet, with $100 riding on the outcome, instead of attempting to win a little more than $36 on MSU and $40 on OSU, by combining the two games into a parlay, you stand to win almost $91 if both teams win. If you bet them individually, you would only win $76, so by combining the two, you win $15 more. Of course, if one team wins and the other loses, your losses would be less by playing the games separately.
The question you most likely wanted to ask while reading the above paragraph is, “Why risk playing two separate games that both teams you selected must win and still not get even money?” Did you ask it? The answer to that question is, “You are correct; why wager $100 to just win $91 and then have to be right twice to cash it?” You can bet a regular game against the spread and get 11-10 odds, just a fraction better than the odds of the parlay above.
The ultimate answer is that we are only looking for parlays that pay better than even money. We really don’t want to play any parlays at less than +120 odds, where we would win $6 for every $5 wagered.
The next question you might have is, “Isn’t finding two teams to win and pay off at +120 going to require me to bet an underdog to win outright?”
Our answer to you is, “Yes, but we don’t look for many two-team money line parlays. Let’s take a look at another example with three teams.
Let’s say that we believe that Washington will beat Oregon State, and the money line is -260.
We also believe that Army will beat Temple, and the money line is -240.
And, we believe that Wisconsin will beat Purdue, and the money line is -250.
If you wager $100 on these three teams to win, and all three teams win, your payout is just under $175 plus the $100 you wagered for almost $275 ($274.62 to be exact.)
Let’s take a look at 5 wagers, where we win two and lose three at these odds
We bet $500 at $100 for 5 wagers.
On the two winning wagers, we receive $275 * 2 or $550.
Invest $500 and win $550 by being right 40% of the time. In one week, we have made a 10% return on an investment. What investment on the Stock Market makes a 10% gain in one week after you have paid the commissions on the trip?
Ah, but here’s the rub: how often can you wager on 5 money line parlays that average +175 and win 40% of the parlays? Most people fall into this trap and only win about one of five of these parlays. At 20% success, you lose $225 a week for a 45% loss. Now, where can you loses 45% in the stock market in one week? We put our real money in high-cap value stocks with durable competitive advantages, long histories of consistent increases in earnings, and long histories of consistent dividend payouts. The pretend money is just fine for football wagering.
By now, you want to know who we are picking in Week 0 of the college football season. Maybe, you have figured it out already. We don’t have any official picks this week, because there are not enough games to come up with a parlay better than +120.
Here is a practice parlay that is not an official pick, but shown here to show you what we mean.
The three games involved are: Nebraska versus Illinois, UCLA versus Hawaii, and UTEP versus New Mexico St.
Let’s say that we think Illinois will upset the Cornhuskers, UCLA will take care of Hawaii, and UTEP will win the big rivalry game.
Here are the three Money Lines for these three games.
Illinois +215 vs. Nebraska
UCLA -875 vs. Hawaii
UTEP -390 vs. New Mexico St.
This parlay calculates to +341. If we wager $100 on this game, and Illinois, UCLA, and UTEP all win, we receive $441 in our account (The $100 we wagered plus the $341 on the win).
Why isn’t this an official pick? We believe that Illinois might have been an excellent pick against the spread when the Illinois-Nebraska game spread opened at -9 1/2. But, it has come down to -6 1/2 as of this writing. Sharp money was wagers on Illinois +9 1/2, and also on Nebraska -6 1/2. A three-point middling is too good to be true. Playing both sides, the Sharps only need to have the game win both sides one out of every 19 times (5.26%) to make a profit. The spreads of 7, 8, and 9 account for 10.8% of all FBS college football games. That’s double the amount needed to make a profit. The key is the Sharps can find these spreads when they open. Also, playing the opening lines is the most effective way to win for a Sharp.
The UTEP-New Mexico State game is the biggest issue in this parlay. One axiom that older Sharps believe in is not to rely on a losing program to have to win for you to win. The Miners are probably a 3-9 team, which is almost a good year for this program. The Aggies are really weak and should be an underdog in every game, but this is their big rival, maybe bigger than playing New Mexico. The I-10 rivalry frequently is a tossup game.
Two out of three of these games are iffy. The chances that Illinois pulls off the upset of Nebraska are not good enough to have faith in this parlay winning. Scott Frost is in deep cow poo if the Cornhuskers don’t win at least six games and earn a bowl bid, and losing to the weakest Big Ten team will turn the heater on in his heated seat. This will be Bret Bielema’s first game as Illinois head coach, and he brought in an offensive coordinator that runs a system totally different from what the Illini ran under Lovie Smith. Expect growing pains.
We hope this gets you pumped for next week, when there will be more than enough games to play some parlays.
August 23, 2021
December 16, 2010
PiRate Ratings College Football Bowl Preview, Part One
We will be posting three bowl previews this year. We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and our 100 times computer simulation for each game.
Today, we cover the bowls before Christmas Day. Next week, we will preview the bowls from December 26 through New Year’s Day. Finally, we will preview the bowls after January 1. Three bowls kick off Saturday, and four more will be played next week.
Saturday, December 18
New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM
1 PM EST on ESPN
Brigham Young Cougars 6-6 vs. Texas-El Paso Miners 6-6
Vegas: BYU by 11 ½
Totals: 50 ½
PiRate: BYU by 18.8
Mean: BYU by 12.3
Bias: BYU by 14.8
100 Sims: BYU 89 UTEP 11
Avg. Sim Score: BYU 33.7 UTEP 20.2
Outlier A: BYU 45 UTEP 17
Outlier B: UTEP 29 BYU 23
Humanitarian Bowl
Boise, ID
4:30 PM EST on ESPN
Fresno State Bulldogs 8-4 vs. Northern Illinois Huskies 10-3
Vegas: Northern Illinois by 1
Totals: 59
PiRate: Northern Illinois by 4.4
Mean: Northern Illinois by 4.1
Bias: Northern Illinois by 9.6
100 Sims: Northern Illinois 58 Fresno State 42
Avg. Sim Score: Northern Illinois 34.6 Fresno State 30.1
Outlier A: Northern Illinois 42 Fresno State 23
Outlier B: Fresno State 37 Northern Illinois 27
New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA
8:00 PM EST on ESPN
Troy Trojans 7-5 vs. Ohio U Bobcats 8-4
Vegas: Troy by 2 ½
Totals: 58
PiRate: Ohio U by 3.6
Mean: Ohio U by 2.1
Bias: Ohio U by 16.2
100 Sims: Ohio U 61 Troy 39
Avg. Sim Score: Ohio U 35.1 Troy 29.8
Outlier A: Ohio U 41 Troy 17
Outlier B: Troy 38 Ohio U 27
Tuesday, December 21
Beef O’Brady Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 8-4 vs. Louisville Cardinals 6-6
Vegas: Louisville by 3
Totals: 57
PiRate: Louisville by 5.7
Mean: Louisville by 1.2
Bias: Louisville by 10.5
100 Sims: Louisville 60 Southern Miss 40
Avg. Sim Score: Louisville 31.1 Southern Miss 27.9
Outlier A: Louisville 35 Southern Miss 13
Outlier B: Southern Miss 40 Louisville 21
Wednesday, December 22
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Utah Utes 10-2 vs. Boise State Broncos 11-1
Vegas: Boise State by 17
Totals: 61
PiRate: Boise State by 17.7
Mean: Boise State by 14.0
Bias: Boise State by 16.6
100 Sims: Boise State 76 Utah 24
Avg. Sim Score: Boise State 40.3 Utah 24.1
Outlier A: Boise State 51 Utah 20
Outlier B: Utah 38 Boise State 31 (two different results gave Utah a 7-point win)
Thursday, December 23
Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
San Diego State Aztecs 8-4 vs. Navy Midshipmen 9-3
Vegas: San Diego State by 4 ½
Totals: 60
PiRate: San Diego State by 5.6
Mean: San Diego State by 0.8
Bias: San Diego State by 4.3
100 Sims: San Diego State 55 Navy 45
Avg. Sim Score: San Diego State 32.8 Navy 30.7
Outlier A: San Diego State 44 Navy 24
Outlier B: Navy 38 San Diego State 26
Friday, December 24
Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, HI
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Hawaii Warriors 10-3 vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 9-3
Vegas: Hawaii by 10
Totals: 73 ½
PiRate: Hawaii by 14.6
Mean: Hawaii by 6.2
Bias: Hawaii by 9.9
100 Sims: Hawaii 58 Tulsa 42
Avg. Sim Score: Hawaii 46.4 Tulsa 40.2
Outlier A: Hawaii 59 Tulsa 35
Outlier B: Tulsa 47 Hawaii 38
August 13, 2010
2010 Conference USA Preview
Go To: www.piratings.webs.com , where we “beat the spread” 60.4% in 2009!
Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games. They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games. We do not use these ratings to make our selections. They are only a starting point. The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves. Many hours of research go into our weekly selections against the spread.
2010 Conference USA Preview
28.8 points per game—that is the average score put up by members of Conference USA in conference games last year. These teams averaged 417 yards of offense per game. If wide open offenses and 150 scrimmage plays per game are up your alley, you have found the conference to follow.
The most outstanding of these offenses belongs to the Houston Cougars. This is the third time in the school’s history that Houston has been so dominating on offense. In the late 1960’s, it was the veer offense. The Cougars were the last team to reach 100 points in a game when they did so against Tulsa in 1968. In the late 1980’s, it was the run and shoot offense. Houston came within five points of repeating the triple digit score when they hung 95 on SMU. Now, with Case Keenum running a four wide receiver spread offense, could the Cougars possibly be primed to challenge the triple digit mark again? Two opportunities present them with a great chance in the month of September. It will be fun to watch—unless you are a fan of one of the two teams that could see it happen.
C U S A Predictions | |||
Pos | Team | Conf | Overall |
C U S A EAST | |||
1 | Southern Mississippi | 6-2 | 9-4 |
2 | Central Florida | 6-2 | 8-4 |
3 | U A B | 4-4 | 6-6 |
4 | Marshall | 4-4 | 6-6 |
5 | East Carolina | 2-6 | 2-10 |
6 | Memphis | 0-8 | 0-12 |
Pos | Team | Conf | Overall |
C U S A WEST | |||
1 | Houston | 7-1 | 10-3 |
2 | S M U | 6-2 | 7-5 |
3 | Tulsa | 6-2 | 8-4 |
4 | U T E P | 4-4 | 7-5 |
5 | Rice | 4-4 | 4-8 |
6 | Tulane | 0-8 | 2-10 |
CUSA Championship Game: Houston over Southern Mississippi
Liberty Bowl—Houston
Hawaii Bowl—Southern Mississippi
Armed Forces Bowl—S M U
St. Petersburg Bowl—Central Florida
New Orleans Bowl—U T E P
Eagle Bank Bowl–Tulsa
Team By Team Breakdown
CUSA East
Team | East Carolina Pirates | ||||||
Head Coach | Ruffin McNeill | ||||||
Colors | Purple and Gold | ||||||
City | Greenville, NC | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 7-1 | ||||||
Overall | 9-5 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 89.6 | ||||||
National Rating | 89 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 2-6 | ||||||
Overall | 2-10 |
Offense: Things will be much more exciting in Greenville this season when the Pirates have the ball. New coach Ruffin McNeill brings the Texas Tech “Air Raid” offense with him from Lubbock. He also brings former TTU receivers coach Lincoln Riley as his offensive coordinator (youngest coordinator in FBS by three years!)
Gone is the ball-control offense that wasn’t flashy but was effective enough to win back-to-back CUSA titles for former coach Skip Holtz. ECU will throw the ball more than 40 times a game (maybe over 50). There is a minor battle going on to decide which of four quarterbacks will start against Tulsa in game one. It appears that former Boston College QB Dominique Davis will get the nod over Brad Wornick and Rio Johnson, but it would not surprise us if eventually true freshman Shane Carden emerges as the full-time starter.
The receiving corps returns two key players who could both approach 100 receptions this season. Dwayne Harris and Darryl Feeney teamed for 131 receptions in 2009. Harris is more of the possession receiver, while Feeney is the breakaway threat.
ECU has had some off the field issues with multiple running backs, and this year’s starter by default has not been immune to that. Jonathan Williams will get one last chance to live up to his high recruit status, but he only averaged 2.7 yards per carry last year. The Pirates will run the ball 20-25 times with several draw plays.
The offensive line returns three starters, but the two that graduated were both All-CUSA performers. Throw in the fact that they must learn an entirely new blocking scheme, and you can expect sacks to possibly triple from the 14 of last year.
We believe the new passing offense will produce a lot of yards through the air, while sacks and weaker blocking will haunt the running game. Look for about 75 yards rushing and 300-325 passing yards, but only about 24-28 points per game.
Defense: We’re talking trouble with a capital T, and that rhymes with P, and that stands for players, as in nine lost starting players from 2009. To make matters worse, not a single player in the front seven returns this year to a defense that will be on the field for at least 5-10 more plays this year.
The only experience is in the secondary, where both cornerbacks, Emanuel Davis and Travis Simmons, combined for 121 tackles. Davis intercepted two passes and knocked away a dozen. They benefitted from one of the best pass rushes in the league, and they won’t be so fortunate this year. Even with the experience and talent, expect enemy quarterbacks to find the going easier against the Pirate secondary.
Worse than the lack of a returning starter up front is the possibility that as many as three of the four starters in the trenches could be freshmen or sophomores. Senior Dustin Lineback should emerge as the star of the linebacking unit, but he only recorded 29 tackles last year.
When you factor into the equation that the new offense will struggle at times and force the defense back on the field much more than last year, it looks like this will be a long year for ECU. Look for the Pirates to give up 30-35 points and 400+ yards per game.
Schedule: Out of conference games at Virginia Tech and North Carolina are sure losses. Home games with North Carolina State and Navy also look like losses. The Pirates get Memphis at home, and that is the only sure win. We figure they will pick up one more along the way. 2-10 would be a big disappointment, but ECU will take a lot of lumps in transitioning to the new offense.
Team | Marshall Thundering Herd | ||||||
Head Coach | Doc Holliday | ||||||
Colors | Green and White | ||||||
City | Huntington, WV | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 4-4 | ||||||
Overall | 7-6 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 88.7 | ||||||
National Rating | 91 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 4-4 | ||||||
Overall | 6-6 |
Offense: Here is another school with a new coach. Marshall gave the Okay to Doc Holliday to corral the Thundering Herd talent into winners at the CUSA gunfight. He has enough talent to succeed in year one.
Holliday has worked for Urban Meyer, so you can expect some form of the spread offense. The first order of business is to identify who will be piloting the new scheme. Willy Korn was a high school phenom when he signed with Clemson. Things didn’t pan out there, and he transferred to Marshall where it was expected he would beat out 2009 incumbent Brian Anderson. However, our spies in Huntington tell us that Anderson is going to keep his job as starter. Korn may not even be the number two, because hot shot freshman Eddie Sullivan has a really big arm and fast shoes. This position is in very good hands.
Anderson will have a quartet of fine receivers to throw to this year. 2009 leader Antavious Wilson caught 60 passes for 724 yards last year. Aaron Dobson is the speedster of the group. He won’t catch 60 passes, but the 30-40 he does grab should average more than 15 yards per reception and produce double-digit touchdowns. Tight end Lee Smith is the hands down best at his position in the conference.
The offensive line is better blocking for the run than pass, but we believe they will pick up the new scheme quickly. All five projected starters are experienced upperclassmen.
The formerly strong running game is the one concern on this side of the ball. The Herd lost a 1,000-yard rusher last year, and 2010 figures to be a season where the leading runner could gain less than 800 yards. If Korn sees action, he could be used as the running alternative to Anderson.
We believe Marshall’s offensive numbers will increase minimally this year. Look for 24-26 points and 350-375 total yards.
Defense: Former Marshall coach Mark Snyder was supposed to be a defensive wizard, after he molded some great defenses at Ohio State. The Buckeye defenses actually improved under Jim Heacock after Snyder left. His Herd defenses were mediocre, and that cost him his job.
This year, the pieces are in place for another mediocre showing. Marshall will fare well against most opponents’ running games, but they will suffer against the slate of excellent opposing quarterbacks they will face this season. The secondary is a big concern following the loss of its top two stars. Free safety Omar Brown and cornerback Ahmed Shakoor return, but there is not much experience or depth in this unit.
The defensive line also returns half of its starting contingent, but there is more depth up front than in the back line. End Vinny Curry could make 1st Team All-CUSA this year after he registered 8 ½ stops behind the line last year.
The middle trio is the strength on this side of the ball. Linebackers Kellen Harris and Mario Harvey are both excellent run-stoppers. They will be called on to contribute more in pass coverage this year to hide the liabilities behind them.
The new offense may force the defense to play a couple more plays per game, and we believe Marshall will give up a couple more points and yards per game this season. Look for 25-28 points and 375-400 yards allowed.
Schedule: Marshall opens the season at the Giant Horseshoe in Columbus against Ohio State, and then the home-opener the following week is against West Virginia. The Herd will be 0-2 when they go to Bowling Green in week three. That will be a must-win game if Marshall is to earn six wins again this season. They host Ohio U the following week before beginning conference play. Their first two games in the league come against the top two teams in their division—Southern Mississippi and Central Florida. They could be 1-5 by then and figure to be 2-4. Home games with UTEP, Memphis, and Tulane will make the back end of the schedule much more fun for Herd fans. Look for Marshall to flirt with a winning season but fall short and finish 6-6 or 5-7.
Team | Memphis Tigers | ||||||
Head Coach | Larry Porter | ||||||
Colors | Blue and Gray | ||||||
City | Memphis, TN | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 1-7 | ||||||
Overall | 2-10 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 77.7 | ||||||
National Rating | 114 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 0-8 | ||||||
Overall | 0-12 |
Offense: Welcome to a big mess! Memphis doesn’t have much going for it these days. If you walk around town, the natives will tell you they wish they lived somewhere else. There is a malaise there. You can get away from it by making a trip to the Rendezvous for a plate of ribs, but 2010 is not a fun time for the Bluff City. Ditto that for Memphis Tiger fans. Tommy West did not go quietly when he was given his walking papers. He warned the administration that they needed to make a significant renewed effort to revitalize the football program, or else drop football. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither will this football program. It has been rumored that Memphis will be admitted to the Big East Conference in a few years, but Big East officials deny this. If it doesn’t happen, Memphis could become the next Villanova.
Okay, let’s talk some real football. New coach Larry Porter comes from LSU, where the coaching staff has been under fire now for a couple of seasons. He steps out of one frying pan into another. The Tigers will have new players starting at quarterback, running back, and two of the receiver positions. They lost their top two rushers and top two receivers.
The new quarterback will be under close media scrutiny from day one. Cannon Smith is the son of Federal Express ex-CEO Fred Smith. Smith has offered up a 10 million dollar “bribe” to any major conference if they accept Memphis as a member. Most of us have seen cases where the son of the big shot got preferential treatment (like George Herbert Walker Bush’s son and Joseph Kennedy’s sons). Smith played in one game for Miami (FL) two years ago, but even if he is worthy of being the starter, there will be too much pressure on him to prove it to the rest of the world.
Making matters worse, there isn’t that much talent for Smith to throw the ball. Sophomore Marcus Rucker is the best of this bunch, but he had just 18 receptions in 2009.
Don’t expect the next DeAngelo Williams or Curtis Steele to suit up for Memphis this year. True freshman Jerrell Rhodes will likely get the most carries with Lance Smith supplementing.
The offensive line is better than average but not great. All 2009 starters return, but they will be called to sustain their blocks up to a half-second longer for the inexperienced quarterbacks and receivers to hook up. Without Steele, they will have to do more in run blocking as well.
We are extremely pessimistic on this year’s team. We believe Memphis will struggle to score 17 points per game and be fortunate to produce 325 total yards per game.
Defense: The picture on this side of the ball makes the offense look peachy. The Tigers are going to crash and burn on this side of the ball in 2010. Only five starters return to a defense that couldn’t stop the pass last year.
In their final four games, Memphis surrendered 415 passing yards per game last year, and they lost their top two secondary starters. Cornerback DA Griffin was out for those four games, and his return gives the Tigers a little solace.
Middle linebacker Jamon Hughes led Memphis with 87 tackles last year. He could be the lone player on this side of the ball to make the All-CUSA team.
Up front, there is some quality and depth. Three starters return, and the projected fourth starter saw significant action. Porter recognizes a need for a better pass rush, and he moved Winston Bowens from linebacker to end.
Memphis gave up 35 points per game last year, and they will not improve this year. Expect 35-40 points and 450-475 yards allowed.
Schedule: The non-conference schedule isn’t all that difficult, and in a good year, the Tigers could have possibly won all four of these games. With the major rebuilding project here, they are likely to lose all four. They open at Mississippi State and play at Louisville in October. They host Middle Tennessee and Tennessee. Throw in Houston, Tulsa, and UTEP from the other division, and the almost sure losses add up to seven. Inside divisional play, Southern Miss and Central Florida are two more sure losses. That leaves three games—East Carolina, Marshall, and UAB for Memphis to try to find one win. It may not happen this year. 0-12 is a possibility. Cheer up Memphis fans. Basketball season begins soon.
Team | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | ||||||
Head Coach | Larry Fedora | ||||||
Colors | Black and Gold | ||||||
City | Hattiesburg, MS | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 5-3 | ||||||
Overall | 7-6 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 91.1 | ||||||
National Rating | 84 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 6-2 | ||||||
Overall | 9-4 |
Offense: Coach Larry Fedora has produced two excellently balanced offenses in his first two seasons in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles might be just as balanced this year, but that just means that the decimated attack drops off equally in the running and passing stats.
The offensive line is the major concern. Only center Cameron Zipp has any starting experience. He will be surrounded by upperclassmen who have never started a game, and that is a little bit of a concern.
If the line can gel just enough to be considered average, the rest of this offense should be okay. Quarterback Austin Davis isn’t Case Keenum or G.J. Kinne, but he is a fine passer. The Eagles have the best backup quarterback in the conference. Martevious Young had a 16/3 TD/Int ratio last year when he filled in for the injured Davis.
Only one starting wide out returns. DeAndre Brown was a consensus freshman All-American last year after catching 47 passes for 785 yards and nine scores. Junior college transfer Kelvin Bolden was a high school teammate of Brown, and he has the speed to make defenses pay if they try to stop the bigger Brown.
Southern Miss lost its career rushing leader when Damien Fletcher graduated. Look for Fedora to use a three-player platoon with V.J. Floyd getting first crack as the starter. Watch out for freshman Kendrik Hardy, who could see a lot of action in short yardage situations.
Southern Miss will not be as explosive on offense this year. Look for a drop to 25-28 points and 375-400 total yards per game.
Defense: This side of the ball is in much better shape. The Golden Eagles will improve here, and with enough improvement, they could be playing on December 4 as the East Division representative in the CUSA Championship Game.
The entire front seven returns from last year, and that includes four juniors and three seniors. Tackle Anthony Gray and end Cordarro Law have legitimate NFL talent. They combined for 21 ½ tackles behind the line last year.
The three linebackers were the top three tacklers on the team. All three (Martez Smith, Korey Williams, and Ronnie Thornton) could make one of the three-deep All-CUSA teams. The entire trio plays the run and the pass exceptionally well.
The secondary is the only weak spot on the defense, but with an experienced front seven, their inefficiencies may be hidden. One player who won’t have to hide is cornerback C. J. Bailey. He knocked away 13 passes last year.
Throw in a great punt returner in Tracy Lampley, and USM might have the best overall defense in the league this season after giving up 26 points per game last year (42 to Middle Tennessee in the New Orleans Bowl loss). We believe the Eagles will shave both points and yards off 2009’s averages. Look for 22-24 points and 350-375 yards allowed. In this league, those numbers will be good enough to lead.
Schedule: The opener is a toughie at South Carolina on Thursday night, September 2. Home games follow with Prairie View and a rebuilding Kansas. Southern Miss wraps up non-conference play with a visit to a rebuilding Louisiana Tech, so a 3-1 start is quite possible. In league play, it all comes down to the last three weeks of November, when the Eagles play at Central Florida, host Houston, and finish at Tulsa. They could lose two of those games and still win the division title. The game with UCF should determine which of those two schools win the division flag. We tend to favor USM by the thinnest of margins—maybe 50.1% to 49.9%.
Team | U A B Blazers | ||||||
Head Coach | Neil Callaway | ||||||
Colors | Green and Gold | ||||||
City | Birmingham, AL | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 4-4 | ||||||
Overall | 5-7 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 90.4 | ||||||
National Rating | 87 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 4-4 | ||||||
Overall | 6-6 |
Offense: How do you replace Superman? You can’t, and UAB cannot replace departed quarterback Joe Webb. Webb was a one-man offense for the Blazers last year, leading the team in rushing with more than 1,400 yards (1,600+ when you factor out sacks) and 11 touchdowns, while passing for 2,300 yards and 21 touchdowns. He accounted for 32 of UAB’s 39 touchdowns!
Fourth year head coach Neil Callaway has three options to choose from in selecting Webb’s replacement. While all three are decent runners, none can do what Webb did. Sophomore David Isabelle, Junior Bryan Ellis, and Juco Emmanuel Taylor have been splitting the snaps in practice so far, and it will take at least one or two scrimmages to determine the winner.
There is quality and experience at wide receiver and tight end. Wide out Frantrell Forrest and tight end Jeremy Anderson return after finishing one-two in catches last year. Both combine decent size and speed with good hands, so if the new QB has any accuracy, UAB should be able to move the ball overhead.
The running back spot was more of a decoy and pass blocker last year. It was so bad that Isabelle was the team’s second leading rusher, and he saw very limited action backing up Webb. Like the QB position, three players are vying for the one spot. Justin Brooks is the best downhill runner able to create holes with punishing plunges. Pat Shed is the dangerous long-gain threat able to make quick cuts and evade tackles. Daniel Borne is a combination of the other two. All three will fail to equal the rushing numbers put up by Webb, but they could give the Blazers a more balanced look.
The offensive line is a major asset this year. It could even be in the top three in the league. Four starters return from last year, led by tackle Matt McCants, a 6-7 monster.
Look for UAB’s offense to take a step backward in both point and yardage production, but the Blazers will not be a slouch for any opposing defense in this league. Expect about 23-26 points and 375-400 total yards.
Defense: Here is where there is much optimism for 2010. UAB gave up more than 32 points per game last year, but things are looking up on this side of the ball. 12 of the top 13 tacklers return, including the entire defensive line (technically one of these starters, Daniel White, started at outside linebacker). Three of those linemen, tackles Elliott Henigan and D. J. Reese and end Bryant Turner, have good shots at making one of the All-CUSA teams. They teamed for 23 stops behind the line, and that number will go up by at least five this year.
Linebackers Lamanski Ware and Marvin Burdette return, but this unit lacks a little something. None of the linebackers are 1st team all-league material.
The secondary is solid this season. Free safety Hiram Atwater is one of the three best defensive backs in the league. He led UAB with 89 tackles last year. Cornerback Terrell Springs broke up 10 passes last year while finishing third in tackles.
Callaway hopes his secondary players don’t lead the team in tackles this season, but it is likely to happen. Still, the Blazers will improve on this side of the ball and surrender less than 30 points per game for the first time since Watson Brown was the head coach. Look for 25-28 points and 380-410 yards allowed
Schedule: UAB is lucky this year. They avoid both Houston and Tulsa from the other division. Out of league play, the Blazers have two winnable games with Florida Atlantic and Troy coming to Legion Field. Road games at Tennessee and Mississippi State appear to be double-digit losses, even though both SEC teams will finish near the bottom of their respective divisions. There are a couple of key games that will decide whether UAB can get to six wins for the first time since 2004. The Blazers host UTEP, Marshall, ECU, and Memphis. If they win all four, they are looking at 6-6.
Team | U C F Knights | ||||||
Head Coach | George O’Leary | ||||||
Colors | Black and Gold | ||||||
City | Orlando, FL | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 6-2 | ||||||
Overall | 8-5 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 94.5 | ||||||
National Rating | 76 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 6-2 | ||||||
Overall | 8-4 |
Offense: UCF has not registered back-to-back winning seasons since 2001 and 2002. On the other hand, they have not had back-to-back losing seasons either. It has been feast during the odd years and famine during the even years. Head Coach George O’Leary’s team looks primed to break that trend easily this year. The Knights are the co-favorites in this division.
If O’Leary can find an adequate new quarterback to replace Brett Hodges, UCF will become the overwhelming favorite to win the East Division for the second time in four years. Rob Calabrese has won the starting job twice before, but he apparently wasn’t ready to lead the team. O’Leary believes the third time is the charm. The only fly in the ointment may be that he could feel the nerves after being booed at home last year.
The rest of the offense is fairly well set. At running back, Central Florida returns every player who contributed in the ground game last year, including Brynn Harvey. Harvey rushed for more than 1,100 yards, scoring 14 times. He won’t be available until the third or fourth game due to a knee injury he suffered in spring drills, but Jonathan Davis, Ronnie Weaver, and Brendan Davis will fill in admirably until Harvey is full speed once again.
The Knights have a terrific trio of wide receivers returning. A.J. Guyton, Kamar Aiken, and Jamar Newsome combined for 104 catches and 1,471 yards.
Helping make this offense go is an experienced and very deep offensive line. Four starters return and eight of the two-deep return. O’Leary landed a bonanza of quality recruits here, so there is depth galore.
Look for UCF to score 24-28 points and gain 340-370 yards per game on offense this year. If they can average 28 points per game, they will be tough to beat in the conference.
Defense: Since O’Leary took over in 2004, the Knight defense has given up 33, 29, 29, 27, 24, and 23 points per game per season. Do you see the pattern? Expect that patter to continue again this season, because UCF is loaded on this side of the ball.
The Knights have an outstanding set of ends in David Williams and Bruce Miller. The two senior terminals specialize in making tackles on the offensive side of scrimmage. Miller registered 13 sacks and five other tackles for loss. The tackles are inexperienced, but they both tip the scale at 300+ pounds. It will take more than one blocker to drive them off the line.
The linebacking trio returns two 2009 starters, but it is just like having all three back, because 2008 star Chance Henderson returns after missing last year with an injury. Lawrence Young and Derrick Hallman combined for 23 ½ tackles for loss.
The secondary ranks with Southern Miss and UAB as the best in the conference. The Knights are toughest at cornerback where Josh Robinson and Justin Boddie form the best outside defending pair in the league.
UCF will give up less than 23 points per game this year. Call if 18-22 points and 325-350 yards a contest.
Schedule: The Knights open with four consecutive non-conference games and then get a week off before starting league play. They should be 2-2 at that point after beating South Dakota, losing to North Carolina State in a close game, winning at Buffalo, and losing at Kansas State. They host Southern Miss on November 13, but they must face Houston on the road the week before. We expect the Cougars to be clicking on all cylinders by then and think that game will be a loss for UCF. It will all come down to the USM game. At this moment in time, we favor the Eagles by about a half-point.
CUSA West
Team | Houston Cougars | ||||||
Head Coach | Kevin Sumlin | ||||||
Colors | Red and White | ||||||
City | Houston, TX | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 6-2 | ||||||
Overall | 10-4 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 104.3 | ||||||
National Rating | 46 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 7-1 | ||||||
Overall | 10-3 |
Offense: Ladies and gentlemen, it’s the event you’ve all been waiting for. Step right up and see the magical Case and his band of merry men prowl and loot through the land.
As we told you at the beginning of this preview, this is the third time that Houston has become an offensive titan in college football. In 1968, running what we call the Houston veer today, the Cougars averaged 42.5 points per game while rushing for better than 300 yards and passing for more than 200 yards per game. On November 23, 1968, they reached the century mark in a game against Tulsa (Country music star Larry Gatlin rushed for the touchdown that gave Houston 93). That team topped 70 points two other times. Flash forward to 1989. Houston, out of the run and shoot offense, rode the arm of Heisman Trophy winner Andre Ware to the tune of 53.5 points per game. That team passed for more than 400 yards per game and almost repeated the feat of the 1968 team when they hung 95 points on SMU and topped 60 points four other times.
While we don’t believe this Houston team will score 50 points per game, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise. The Cougars have topped 40 points per game the last two years, while averaging 563 yards of total offense both seasons.
Quarterback Case Keenum has a shot at becoming the next Heisman Trophy winner at UH. He completed better than 70% of his passes last season. Before you think that most of them were little dump passes, consider this: he averaged better than eight yards per attempt and 11.5 yards per completion. As a team, Houston put up 434 passing yards per game. There is no reason to believe Keenum will not match or even exceed those numbers in his senior season. He should be a first or second round pick in next year’s draft.
Keenum will benefit from the return of his big four receivers. James Cleveland, Tyron Carrier, Patrick Edwards, and Charles Sims caught more passes (350) than 117 of the other 119 FBS schools! This quartet gained 4,023 yards and scored 28 touchdowns.
Unlike most mega-passing teams, Houston can run the ball quite competently. Both of last season’s big two rushers were set to return, but Charles Sims was declared academically ineligible. Bryce Beall returns after rushing for 670 yards and seven scores. He added 32 receptions and scored three times through the air. Factoring out sacks, Houston exceeded five yards per rush.
The offensive line lost two starters, but the reserved picked up considerable playing time last year. They gave up only 24 sacks in over 700 passing attempts, and that feat can be repeated again this year.
How much better could this Houston offense be in 2010? If the defense can improve enough to give the offense a few more plays, and if the key players can stay healthy, this team could challenge the 50-point barrier. It would not surprise us if Keenum throws for “just” 5,400 yards after topping 5,600 last year, because the running game could top 150 yards per game. You won’t see a better offense in college football.
Defense: This is the bugaboo for this team. If the defense was just average, we would be discussing which BCS Bowl the Cougars would be headed to in January. Houston gave up more than 30 points and 450 yards per game last year, and if the defensive line doesn’t improve by leaps and bounds, the Cougars could lose two or three games this year by scores of 45-35.
The line gave up a disgusting 227 rushing yards and better than five yards per carry. In their four losses, the Cougars gave up an average of 253 rushing yards. One of last year’s starting defensive linemen, Isaiah Thompson, has been moved from nose tackle to offensive guard, as Houston moves to a 3-4 defense. That leaves UH with just one veteran on the front three.
The quartet of linebackers has the potential to be much better than last year’s three-man unit. Inside ‘backer Marcus McGraw was the star of last year’s defense, and he should repeat as 1st Team All-CUSA. He is equally tough against the run and the pass, and he is going to be a demon on the zone blitz.
The secondary returns two very capable starters in cornerback Jamal Robinson and free safety Nick Saenz. Robinson intercepted five passes and knocked away eight others.
The Cougars are still not world-beaters on this side of the ball, but they should give up less than 30 points and 425 yards per game this year.
Schedule: A tougher schedule will keep the Cougars out of the BCS Bowl picture. After an easy opener at home against Texas State and a conference opener at home with UTEP, UH plays at UCLA. The Cougars must also face an improving Mississippi State team and close the season at Texas Tech. We can only see a 2-2 mark out of league play. In the conference, Houston must face Southern Miss and Central Florida from the East. A road game at SMU should be one of the most entertaining games of the year with a score that looks like a basketball game. We think Houston will fall one time in league play, but they should still win their division. The Cougars are our choice to win the CUSA Championship Game and face a beatable SEC team in the Liberty Bowl.
Team | Rice Owls | ||||||
Head Coach | David Bailiff | ||||||
Colors | Dark Blue and Gray | ||||||
City | Houston, TX | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 2-6 | ||||||
Overall | 2-10 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 86.4 | ||||||
National Rating | 95 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 4-4 | ||||||
Overall | 4-8 |
Offense: The fall was sharp. Rice followed up its first 10-win season in 60 years with a 10-loss season last year. Nine starters return on offense, and one of those starters could be benched in favor of a transfer from the Big Ten.
Let’s start with the offensive line. All five starters and four of the second unit return from last year to make this one of the most experienced blocking corps in the nation. Guards Jake Hicks and Davon Allen and tackle Scott Mitchell will contend for all-conference honors. Look for great pass protection and better run-blocking this year.
Quarterback Nick Fanuzzi returns after starting two-thirds of Rice’s games last year. He passed for just under 1,600 yards last year, and that mark could easily double in 2010.
Fanuzzi will need some newcomers to step up from the group of receivers. The Owls lost three of their top four from 2009, and the receivers who do return did nothing spectacular.
The running game should make a major move forward. After averaging a meager 109 yards on the ground in 2009, the Owls welcome Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie. McGuffie is the highest-rated recruit to play at Rice in some time, and he should run the ball more than 20 times per game.
Rice won’t approach 2008’s offense numbers, but the Owls will combine a solid running game with a decent passing game to top last year’s output. Call if 23-26 points and 325-350 total yards per game.
Defense: This is where improvement must be made. Rice gave up 43 points and 464 yards per game in 2009. Nine starters return on this side of the ball too, including the entire defensive line. The line also returns five other contributors from last year, and it should be much tougher to run on Rice this year. Look for the pass rush to be much better as well with the return of ends Cheta Ozougwu and Scott Solomon.
Rice plays a 4-2-5 defense, and they have a decent pair of linebackers this season. Neither will earn all-conference honors.
The biggest weakness is a porous secondary that surrendered 273 passing yards per game and allowed 67% of enemy passes to be completed. Opposing quarterbacks averaged better than nine yards per attempt against them. Any quarterback that averages better than nine yards per attempt for the season, and isn’t an option quarterback throwing eight passes a game, would be a Heisman Trophy finalist. Safety Travis Bradshaw led the Owls with 121 tackles a year ago and earned 3rd team all-conference accolades.
Rice could improve by 10 points per game on defense this year. Let’s call it about 30-35 points and 410-440 yards allowed per game.
Schedule: The Owls need to fire the schedule-maker. He has guaranteed that they go no better than 1-3 outside of the league and maybe even 0-4. The only winnable non-league came will be at North Texas. Rice hosts Northwestern and Baylor, two private schools that could both be bowl-bound this year. The fourth non-conference game is the opener at Reliant Stadium against Texas. In league play, Rice could split their eight games and go 4-4, but they have no chance at a winning season unless they win six league games.
Team | S M U Mustangs | ||||||
Head Coach | June Jones | ||||||
Colors | Crimson and Blue | ||||||
City | Dallas, TX | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 6-2 | ||||||
Overall | 8-5 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 92.3 | ||||||
National Rating | 83 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 6-2 | ||||||
Overall | 7-5 |
Offense: Coach June Jones may draw comparisons to Annie Sullivan before he retires from the game. Like Sullivan, you can call Jones a “miracle worker.” He took a weak Hawaii program and created a little dynasty on the island, culminating with a trip to the Sugar Bowl in his last season there. In just two short seasons in Dallas, he has brought SMU out of a quarter century of doldrums. The Mustangs returned to a bowl last year for the first time since their pre-Death Penalty days of the 1980’s.
Jones is a mastermind with the passing game, but SMU’s exceptional pass offense will get pushed to the back of the sports pages playing in the same division as Houston. Quarterback Kyle Padron took over as starter midway through the season following an injury to since departed Bo Levi Mitchell. The true freshman completed better than 67% of his passes last year for more than 9.5 yards per attempt. If he can replicate those numbers for a full season, he could top 3,400 yards this year.
SMU lost the services of its best pass receiver in school history. Emmanuel Sanders took his 98 receptions to the NFL. Aldrick Robinson has NFL potential. He caught 47 passes for 800 yards (17.0 avg./catch) last year.
Missing from the running game is Shawnbrey McNeal, who gained close to 1,200 yards last year. Jones is very high on true freshmen Darryl Fields and Kevin Pope. Fields can take a simple dump pass or quick pitch and turn it into a touchdown ala Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans. Pope has the power to run over defenders.
The offensive line will be manned by five juniors, four of whom started last year. Three of the four received some form of postseason honors.
Jones should mold another fine offense in Dallas this year. Look for the Mustangs to improve to 35+ points and 425+ yards per game this year.
Defense: SMU trimmed 11 points and 80 yards off their poor showing of 2008. Enough talent returns this year to believe that the Mustangs will continue to show improvement. The defensive line is the strongest unit on this side. Ends Marquis Frazier and Taylor Thompson teamed up for 9 ½ sacks. True freshman Mike O’Guin could step in as the new starting nose tackle. O’Guin tips the scale at 320 pounds, and he will not be easily moved out of the middle.
Three of the starting four linebackers return. The best of the quartet is outside ‘backer Pete Fleps, who made 83 tackles.
The secondary could be a problem this year, and in a conference where teams pass the ball 40 to 60 times a game, that could become a big problem. Cornerback Sterling Moore broke up 11 passes last year, but the Mustangs lost two honorable mention all-conference players who teamed up for eight interceptions and 17 passes knocked away.
A solid pass rush could help hide the liabilities in the secondary, but we believe SMU will give up 225-250 passing yards and 375-400 total yards this year, which leads to about 24-28 points surrendered.
Schedule: The non-conference portion of this schedule is rough. Look for a 1-3 mark as the Mustangs venture to Texas Tech and Navy and host TCU. Only a home game with anemic Washington State gives them a shot at a win. Once league play begins, SMU will be able to compete with anybody on their schedule, even Houston and Tulsa. We actually believe the Mustangs will pen a loss on Houston and be in the division race until the end. Road games against Rice and UTEP may determine if SMU can sneak through with a division title. The Mustangs avoid the top two teams from the East.
Team | Tulane Green Wave | ||||||
Head Coach | Bob Toledo | ||||||
Colors | Olive Green and Sky Blue | ||||||
City | New Orleans, LA | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 1-7 | ||||||
Overall | 3-9 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 72.2 | ||||||
National Rating | 119 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 0-8 | ||||||
Overall | 2-10 |
Offense: It has been eight long years since Tulane last enjoyed a winning season. The Green Wave has lost eight or more games for five consecutive seasons, and the stigma of Hurricane Katrina still haunts this program. The Green Wave offense has fallen on hard times, averaging less than 17 points per game the last two seasons.
If TU is to improve on a 3-9 season of a year ago, the offense will have to make a huge leap forward. Sophomore quarterback Ryan Griffin won’t have to share duties with Joe Kemp this year, as Kemp has been moved to wide receiver. Griffin could be the best Tulane quarterback since Patrick Ramsey by the time he graduates, but he needs better receivers. Only one receiver with any real experience returns this year, and Casey Robottom isn’t going to be confused with DeAndre Brown or James Cleveland.
In two seasons, Albert Williams has accumulated 143 rushing yards. He will be asked to carry the load this year and fill the shoes of last year’s star Andre Anderson. Expect a major regression here, as TU could rush for less than 100 yards per game.
The offensive line returns four starters, and they have the potential to be an excellent pass blocking front for Griffin. Center Andrew Nierman is among the best in the league at his position.
It doesn’t look promising for Coach Bob Toledo in his fourth year in New Orleans. We don’t see him righting the ship in the Crescent City. Look for Tulane to continue to struggle to score points and access territory. Call it 17 points and 300-325 yards per game.
Defense: The offense looks like a juggernaut compared to this side of the ball. Tulane has been weak on this side for a long time. In the last seven years, opponents have averaged an aggregate of 34 points and 415 yards per game. With but four starters returning on this side of the ball, the Green Wave could be looking at even worse numbers in 2010.
Only one starter returns to the front seven, so this will be a major headache this season. Tackle Justin Adams is the lone returnee up front, and he is coming off a season in which he registered just 17 tackles.
The secondary has three returning starters, but they will be asked to defend some of the best receivers in the nation for a longer amount of time this year. None of these experienced defenders will show up on an all-conference team.
We believe Tulane is headed toward a Washington State-type of season. Look for the Greenies to yield more than 40 points and 450 yards per game this year.
Schedule: Tulane is fortunate that they open at home against Southeast Louisiana. That could be the only game they win this year. The Green Wave host Ole Miss and Army and travel to Rutgers out of league play, and these three games look like big losses. In conference play, it just doesn’t look promising that they can pick up a win. It doesn’t help that they must play Southern Miss, Central Florida, and Marshall from the other division.
Team | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | ||||||
Head Coach | Todd Graham | ||||||
Colors | Blue and Gold | ||||||
City | Tulsa, OK | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 3-5 | ||||||
Overall | 5-7 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 92.8 | ||||||
National Rating | 81 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 6-2 | ||||||
Overall | 8-4 |
Offense: For a team that averaged 29 points and 410 yards per game last year, it was funny to hear fans mutter, “What’s wrong with our offense?” Tulsa averaged 44 points and 557 yards per game over the course of the last two years.
The offense should rebound with another stellar season this year, but there are a couple causes for concern. Offensive coordinator Herb Hand left his position in late July to take a non-coordinator position at Vanderbilt.
Coach Todd Graham hopes the team can hit the ground running and not miss a beat. He has an experienced attack unit that should be able to get over the loss of their top offensive assistant.
Quarterback G. J. Kinne began his career at Texas before transferring to Tulsa. He fired the ball 345 times last year and completed 61% for 2,732 yards and 22 touchdowns. He takes a back seat only to Case Keenum in this conference. With better pass protection this year, he should add at least 1,000 yards to his 2009 total.
Tulsa has one of the three or four best receivers in CUSA. Damaris Johnson caught 78 passes for 1,131 yards last year. He is also the best combined kick/punt returner in the league. Joining him on the other side of the line should be Jameel Owens a transfer from Oklahoma. Owens has the physical tools to be a great possession receiver.
The running backs are used more for their blocking and pass catching abilities than their running abilities. Kinne was the leading rusher from the spread formation. Fullback/H-back Charles Clay rushed for just 236 yards last year, but he caught 39 passes and scored 12 total touchdowns. At 6-3 and 235, he seldom goes down on first contact. Graham will rely on as many as six players to share the rushing load.
The offensive line had some difficulties last year, and with four starters and all of the second five returning, look for some improvement. You will not see the quarterbacks go down 46 times like last year.
Tulsa will rebound with a move back over 35 points and 450 yards per game this year. If the line improves enough, the Golden Hurricane could top 40 points per game.
Defense: Tulsa has not fielded a strong defense since Dave Kragthorpe was the head coach and Graham was the defensive coordinator. Graham has indicated that he will take more control over the defense this year.
Six starters have been lost from last year, so it will take a monumental coaching effort to keep Tulsa from giving up 30 or more points per game. Two starters return up front, but Graham brought in three junior college recruits who could all see considerable time in the trenches this season. Best of the lot is nose guard Darrell Zellars.
Tulsa uses a 3-3-5 defense with two players, a bandit and a spur, playing a hybrid linebacker/safety position. Spur DeAundre Brown returns after leading TU with 102 stops last year. He only picked off one pass, and that was Tulsa’s major weakness on defense. In fact, no returnee had more than one pick last year.
We see some form of improvement in the 2010 numbers, but how much is a mystery. Our best guess if 25 points and 375 yards allowed.
Schedule: The non-conference schedule is not overly imposing. The Golden Hurricane should win at least two and maybe three of their four games. They face Bowling Green and Central Arkansas at Chapman Stadium, and they go on the road to a rebuilding Oklahoma State and Notre Dame. In league play, it will all come down to a couple of games. TU plays at SMU on October 9, at Houston on November 13, and closes the regular season with Southern Miss at home. If they win two of those games, they will reach double figure victories for the third time in the last four years. We see at least nine regular season wins.
Team | U T E P Miners | ||||||
Head Coach | Mike Price | ||||||
Colors | Orange and Navy | ||||||
City | El Paso, TX | ||||||
2009 Record | |||||||
Conference | 3-5 | ||||||
Overall | 4-8 | ||||||
PiRate Rating | 82.3 | ||||||
National Rating | 103 | ||||||
2010 Prediction | |||||||
Conference | 4-4 | ||||||
Overall | 7-5 |
Offense: UTEP has been successful on this side of the ball for the last six years, and 2010 should not be an aberration. Coach Mike Price returns the best quarterback in the conference not wearing a Houston or Tulsa uniform. Trevor Vittatoe needs just 2,122 passing yards to become the school’s all-time leading passer. If he stays healthy, he should do that by late October. Vittatoe took a step backward last season, but he will have a better offensive line blocking for him this year.
Two quality receivers return for the Miners in wide out Kris Adams and tight end Jonny Moore. Junior receiver Donavon Kemp has breakaway speed, and if he can learn to hold onto the ball, he could be an “X-factor” in this offense.
The running game has one outstanding rusher but very little depth. Donald Buckram rushed for nearly 1,600 yards and 18 touchdowns.
The offensive line returns three starters, and the two new starters have past starting experience. UTEP should move the ball with consistency against every team on the schedule.
This looks like another 30+-point scoring team in the conference. Call it 32 points and 425 yards this year.
Defense: Poor defensive play has been the Miners’ downfall during the Price era. The natives are getting restless in El Paso, and another poor showing could bring that era to an end.
The Miners will have troubles up front, where three starters have graduated. End Robert Soleyjacks is the lone holdover; he made just 19 tackles a year ago.
The linebacking unit loses the defense’s top player from 2009, and there is nobody on the roster who can replace Da’Mon Cromartie-Smith and his 108 tackles.
The news is not any better in the secondary. Both cornerbacks and the free safety graduated, taking with them 20 deflected passes. Strong safety Braxton Amy was granted a sixth season of eligibility after missing the last eight games of 2009 to injury.
UTEP will not contend for the division crown because they will not be able to stop the Keenum’s Kinne’s, and Padron’s of the conference. Look for the Miners to yield 31-34 points and 450 yards per game.
Schedule: UTEP has a chance to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2005 thanks to an easy non-league slate. The Miners host Arkansas-Pine Bluff and New Mexico State, and they face New Mexico in Albuquerque. They can win all three of those games. Only a visit to Arkansas will be bad news. UTEP avoids UCF and Southern Miss from the East. They get Memphis, UAB, and Marshall. We believe they can split their conference games this year and win seven games overall.
Coming Tomorrow: The WAC Preview—Boise State is primed to run the table once again if the Broncos can get past a tough opening game opponent.
March 17, 2010
Brackets, Brackets, Brackets & A Preview Of The First Round
Question: How many of you reading this are beginning to come down with some symptoms that will force you to call in sick for work the next two days? Big Dance Fever seems to strike hard every year at this time.
Now that you are in your pajamas in bed with your TV set to CBS, your computer set to March Madness on Demand, and your brackets as your bed partner, you can begin your two day miraculous recovery.
Before you send off your bracket picks, take a look at the PiRate method for picking teams to advance. You should re-read the Sunday, March 14, 2010 blog to better understand this method.
Without further adieu, let’s dig in.
1. Which teams meet the upper range criteria in every category? That means they outscored their opponents by eight or more per game; their field goal percentage was greater than 7.5% better than their opponents; they outrebounded their opponents by five or more per game; they forced at least three more turnovers per game than they committed; and they stole the ball 7.5 or more times per game.
ANSWER—Only two teams met this criteria this year, and neither are members of a big six conference. Murray State not only met all criteria, they met the upper limits. The Racers outscored opponents by 17 points per game. They had a field goal percentage margin of 11.7%. They outrebounded opponents by six per game and forced 2.7 more turnover per game than they committed. Best of all, Murray averaged 10 steals per game. Their R+T was an outstanding 12.48. Alas, Murray’s schedule strength was just 46.02, and that is too low to consider the Racers a threat to make it to the Elite 8. Sweet 16 is not totally out of the question.
The second team that met this criteria, but not as well as Murray State, was Brigham Young. The Cougars outscored opponents by 17.8 points per game. They shot 7.9% from the field better than their opponents. They outrebounded the opposition by 5.1. Their turnover margin was 4.1. They averaged 8.5 steals per game, and their R+T was an amazing 13.46. BYU’s schedule strength was 52.52, which is adequate enough to see the Cougars as a serious threat to advance to the second week in this tournament.
2. Which teams can be immediately eliminated due to a negative R+T rating?
ANSWER—Usually upwards of 8-10 teams can be eliminated every season due to poor R+T ratings. In the Big Dance, this rating, which measures the number of extra scoring opportunities, is vital to winning. Only two teams can be eliminated right off the bat, and not many people would think of picking them to win any way. Those two teams are New Mexico State and UC-Santa Barbara.
Several teams just barely qualified with R+T ratings just above zero. Two of those that just qualified are top 20 teams. Georgetown and Vanderbilt could be ripe for upset bids in either the first or second round.
The Hoyas face Ohio U in the first round, and the Bobcats don’t have the merits to pull the upset. In a second round match, Tennessee definitely meets the criteria to advance to the Sweet 16, so the Volunteers could be a strong pick to knock off Georgetown and advance to St. Louis.
Vanderbilt draws Murray State in the first round, and the Racers could easily pull off the first upset by a double-digit seed. Murray would then face either Butler or UTEP in a second round game, and the Racers would have a legitimate chance to advance to the second week.
3. Forget all this talk of first round upsets. Which teams are capable of winning it all?
ANSWER—We thought you’d never ask. Every year when we compose these ratings, we apply the PiRate formula and look for teams scoring 15 or above to find the real contenders. Because we have added won-loss record away from home this year, we have elevated that real contender number to 18. 17 teams met that criteria this year. Before we list them in order, we must clarify something. After the first two rounds, and after the second two rounds, we recalculate these ratings. Some teams still alive will cease to meet the minimum score and no longer be considered a serious threat, while one or two teams might move into this elite group.
This year, one team fared much better than all the others. Thus, that team becomes our favorite to win all the marbles in Indianapolis.
Is that team Kansas or Kentucky? Guess what? It is neither. The one team that scores almost six points better than any other is none other than Duke. Could Coach K be on his way to title number three in Durham? We love his seeding, and we definitely see the Blue Devils winning their first four to earn a ticket to Indianapolis. As a matter of fact, as we see it, the selection committee did several huge favors for the Blue Devils. First, they get the winner of the play-in game, so they will have a great scouting report. Of course, this game will be a breather. On Sunday, Duke will play either Cal or Louisville, and it could actually be the toughest of their four games on the way to the Final Four. Because Villanova and Purdue are fading as fast as the sun in Barrow, Alaska, in October, there’s a chance that both could be gone before the Sweet 16.
After Duke, six other teams scored 20 or more points in the criteria rating. They are Kansas, Kansas State, BYU, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Baylor in that order.
Kentucky comes in at number eight, followed closely by New Mexico, Villanova, Michigan State, Maryland, Texas, Tennessee, Old Dominion, Murray State, and Georgetown. Yes, the Hoyas still qualify as one of the real contenders, but just by a razor’s edge. Their R+T score is rather low.
The best of the rest (those that just barely missed the 18-point score) are: Siena, Utah State, Washington, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. These 22 teams are the ones that you should consider for your Sweet 16.
Here is a look at the 32 first round games. The number in (parentheses) represents the PiRate Bracketnomics criteria number.
First-Round Games
East Regional
#1 Kentucky (19.8) vs. #16 East Tennessee (1.6)
This is your typical one vs. 16 mismatch. Kentucky will not win by 50 like they might have in the days of Rick Pitino; they might outscore the Buccaneers by 20 points in two separate segments in this game and yet win by only 20 points.
The Wildcats will dominate the glass, and ETSU won’t be able to force enough turnovers to make this a game. We see UK holding the Bucs to about 35% shooting and 60 or fewer points.
Prediction: Kentucky 74 East Tennessee 53
#8 Texas (19.0) vs. #9 Wake Forest (4.9)
The Longhorns were a big disappointment after being ranked at the top at 17-0 earlier in the year. Looking at their stats, it’s definitely hard to see how they lost nine times in their final 16 games.
Texas just barely misses qualifying as superior in every PiRate Bracketnomics’ category. They outscored opponents by 11.5 points per game, shot 6.7% from the field better than their opponents, finished +6.8 in rebounding and +1.1 in turnover margin, and they averaged 7.8 steals per game. They compiled these stats playing in one of the two toughest leagues.
Wake Forest lost five of their final six games and fell several places in their seeding. The Demon Deacons have a negative turnover margin, which is always a tough thing to overcome in the Big Dance.
This game should be interesting due to the fact that neither team is playing as well as they could. We think Texas will play a little more cohesively in the opening round and survive and advance.
Prediction: Texas 77 Wake Forest 72
#5 Temple (14.5) vs. #12 Cornell (10.2)
A lot of prognosticators are going with Cornell to become yet another 12-seed upset winner and even advance to the Sweet 16, becoming the first Ivy League team to make it that far since Penn lost to Duke in the Sweet 16 in 1980.
The Big Red earned the respect of the nation when they played at Kansas and lost by just five points.
This was Temple’s best team in years—maybe the best since 1988. The Owls, as they have for decades, play tough defense on the perimeter, denying the ball from being passed inside and getting tight on three-point shooters. They don’t force many turnovers, but they commit less than 11 per game.
Cornell coach Steve Donahue was an assistant to Temple coach Fran Dunphy, so these coaches know what to expect in this game. We’re going with this five-seed to avoid the upset.
Prediction: Temple 68 Cornell 60
#4 Wisconsin (16.1) vs. #13 Wofford (5.3)
The Badgers cannot take the Terriers lightly. Wofford is another 13-seed team capable of pulling off an upset. Expect 40 minutes of half-court offense with less than 130 total points scored.
Both teams tend to rely on one player to bear the scoring burden. For Wisconsin, guard Trevon Hughes is the go-to guy. For Wofford, forward Noah Dahlman is the key offensive threat.
It will be easier for Wisconsin to shut down Dahlman than Wofford to shut down Hughes, and Hughes has a little better quartet of teammates.
Prediction: Wisconsin 63 Wofford 56
#6 Marquette (12.2) vs. #11 Washington (16.9)
This will be one game you will want to tune in if you have March Madness on Demand. We think it will be very entertaining.
Marquette will move the ball around the perimeter and take a lot of threes. If they hit 35% or better, they will be tough to beat. However, the Golden Eagles are weak on the boards, and if those treys don’t fall, they cannot win.
Washington is not getting much respect coming out of the weak Pac-10. The Huskies won their final seven games including the league tournament to earn an automatic berth here. They can score points in bunches, and even though they are on the small side, they are the best rebounding team in the Pac-10. That happens to be Marquette’s weakness. That happens to be why UW will still be playing Sunday.
Prediction: Washington 82 Marquette 75
#3 New Mexico (19.6) vs. #14 Montana (3.2)
At first glance, this looks like another blowout that you see when a number three takes on a number 14. However, Montana is not to be disregarded without a fight. The Grizzlies found themselves down by more than 20 points to Weber State in the Big Sky Championship Game and came back to win.
Montana plays tough defense and works patiently for intelligent shots. This style of play may be a bit boring, but it can be quite effective if the players stay within the frame of the philosophy.
New Mexico wins games through tough hustle. The Lobos are tough on the boards, and they seldom turn the ball over more than a dozen times per game. They can pose tough matchup problems for a lot of teams, because they can post up their guards and bring their forwards out high to shoot the three. We’ll go with the Lobos to win, but it may be a lot more difficult than most people expect.
Prediction: New Mexico 72 Montana 63
#7 Clemson (12.3) vs. #10 Missouri (14.7)
This will be a helter-skelter game from start to finish. These teams are both reliant upon forcing turnovers and converting them into fast break points. We expect a lot of physical play with the referees letting a lot of contact go.
Missouri relies a little too much on its outside game, while Clemson has some inside presence. In the Big Dance, the teams that can get offensive putbacks are usually the teams that survive and advance. We don’t think Missouri will have an answer for Clemson forward Trevor Booker.
Prediction: Clemson 77 Missouri 72
#2 West Virginia (23.5) vs. #15 Morgan State (-0.2)
Morgan State has been here before. The Bears lost to Oklahoma in the first round last year. Coach Todd Bozeman likes for his team to move the ball up the floor quickly and bang it inside. That might work in the MEAC, but this is not the MEAC.
West Virginia looks a little sloppy at times, and the Mountaineers don’t shoot the ball all too well, but they play tough defense and dominate on the boards. WVU enters this tournament with a chip on its shoulder after flopping in the first round against Dayton last year. Coach Bob Huggins’ squad has played in several nail-biters this year, and they should be ready to play.
Prediction: West Virginia 69 Morgan State 52
South Regional
#1 Duke (34.4) vs. #16 Arkansas Pine Bluff (-11.5)
Well, we blew the play-in game, but luckily that’s a Mulligan in bracket picking.
Duke will get a breather game in their opener. The Blue Devils will apply pressure man-to-man defense and force the Golden Lions to commit numerous turnovers. Duke’s big guys will repeatedly get offensive rebounds when the Blue Devils miss shots, and those players will clean the defensive glass as well.
UAPB should be fortunate that they won the play-in game. They will give up more points in the first half of this game than they did in the entire game Tuesday night.
Prediction: Duke 87 Arkansas Pine Bluff 59
#8 California (11.4) vs. #9 Louisville (9.5)
Louisville beat Syracuse twice this year, but the Cardinals are not nearly as good this year as they were last year. This UL team lacks the little something extra to advance very far in this tournament.
Cal won their first outright Pac-10 regular season title since Darrall Imhoff led the Bears to the National Championship Game against Ohio State in the 1959-60 season. This edition of Bears is the polar opposite to that earlier version. Cal is strictly a perimeter-oriented team that must shoot the ball well in order to win.
This one is a true tossup game. It will be a contest of better offense vs. better defense. Cal has to travel almost 3,200 miles, and the long trip could be their undoing.
Prediction: Louisville 72 California 68
#5 Texas A&M (12.7) vs. #12 Utah State (17.3)
This is one of those 5-12 games where the PiRate system shows the underdog to be the better team. Utah State would be the outright favorite in this game if they played a little better defensively, especially on the perimeter.
Texas A&M played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, and the Aggies showed they could go head-to-head with them. Their defense is tough, and the Aggies from Texas should hold the Aggies from Utah well below their scoring and shooting averages. A&M doesn’t shoot the ball all that well, and this should be a close game. We’ll go against the PiRate chalk and take the Big 12 team.
Prediction: Texas A&M 70 Utah State 66
#4 Purdue (15.4) vs. #13 Siena (17.8)
This year, we like the 13-seeds better than the 12-seeds as upset possibilities. Purdue would probably have been a 10-seed or even missed the tournament altogether had Robbie Hummel been injured all season. Without Hummel, the Boilermakers are not much better than your average NIT team.
Siena defeated Vanderbilt in the first round of the 2008 NCAA Tournament and Ohio State in the first round last year. The Saints may be a little better this year thanks to a balanced team. Siena has four starters that can score 20 points on any given night. They have an inside presence with Alex Franklin and Ryan Rossiter combining for more than 19 rebounds per game. Throw in a +3 turnover margin, and the Saints get seven more scoring opportunities per game than their opposition.
We will call the upset in this game, but we give a warning. Star players have missed NCAA Tournament games in the past, and those starless teams found a way to win. Loyola Marymount won three games in the Big Dance after Hank Gathers died. Going back several years to 1965, Wichita State made it to the Final Four after losing their top two players to eligibility.
Prediction: Siena 70 Purdue 65
#6 Notre Dame (6.5) vs. #11 Old Dominion (18.8)
This should be an entertaining game with a lot of inside action. Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody missed multiple games due to injury in February, and the Irish defense stepped up and did the job. With the big forward back, the Irish are playing their best ball of the season. While they finished the season winning just eight of their final 13 games, those five losses came by a combined nine points.
Old Dominion is one of those teams like Butler and St. Mary’s that big-six conference teams don’t want to play. The Monarchs dominate on the boards and seldom give up a high-percentage shot.
We look for this one to stay close throughout, and the difference could be which team has the better outside shooting day. If one team has a decent enough outside shooting day to force defenses to stretch, their inside game will become too strong to lose.
While ODU has much better total numbers, we think Notre Dame will get the job done.
Prediction: Notre Dame 71 Old Dominion 66
#3 Baylor (21.39) vs. #14 Sam Houston St. (10.33)
Watch out for Baylor! The Bears rate in that elite group of teams capable of getting to Indianapolis. In the Bracketnomics Class blog, we mentioned that you needed to be alert for a team that shoots 48% from the field and allows only 38%. Baylor is one of two teams that meet this criteria.
The Bears also dominate on the glass, and if it weren’t for a negative turnover margin, we would pick them as a Final Four team. Some future opponent will exploit this liability and defeat them, but it won’t be Sam Houston.
The Bearkats are an interesting and fun team to watch play. They begin firing threes the moment they enter the gym. It won’t get the job done in this game.
Prediction: Baylor 81 Sam Houston 67
#7 Richmond (10.0) vs. #10 St. Mary’s (10.1)
This game could come down to pace. If Richmond presses the tempo and makes this a maximum possession game, the Spiders will have a decided advantage. Richmond needs to speed the game up to force St. Mary’s into unforced errors.
Seldom in the opening round of the tournament do we ever see a team consciously trying to speed up the game. Nerves and uncertainty usually slow these games down until midway through the second half.
St. Mary’s will win this game if the total number of field goal attempts is 115 or less. If the pace is average to below average, their seven-man rotation will be able to avoid fatigue. Center Omar Samhan can control the lane in this game and give the Gaels a strong advantage inside.
Prediction: St. Mary’s 73 Richmond 67
#2 Villanova (19.5) vs. #15 Robert Morris(-2.9)
This game should be a mismatch, but it could take some time before the Wildcats pull away. VU finished the regular season on a 4-6 slide, but the Wildcats lost five of those games to NCAA Tournament teams from their conference.
Once this game begins, we look for the Colonials to keep it within striking distance for a couple of time outs before Villanova slowly pulls away.
Prediction: Villanova 78 Robert Morris 63
Midwest Regional
#1 Kansas (28.7) vs. #16 Lehigh (0.22)
If there is a chance that one team will top 100 points in the first round without going into multiple overtimes, this game is the one. Kansas will begin its march to the Final Four with a tune-up game.
Lehigh will take 25 or more three-pointers in this game, but we believe the Jayhawk defense will force many bad shots from the outside. KU will then score 1.3-1.5 points per possession. We’re sorry if you get stuck with this game and cannot get another.
Prediction: Kansas 94 Lehigh 61
#8 UNLV (11.7) vs. #9 Northern Iowa (11.7)
How about this for tossup game status? Not only is this an eight-nine game, their criteria scores are equal.
This game comes down to how well the Panthers can stop the Runnin’ Rebels outside shooting game. We think UNI will be able to hold the UNLV backcourt of Tre’Von Willis, Oscar Bellfield, Anthony Marshall, and reserve Kendall Wallace under their norms. At the same time, look for UNI brute center Jordan Eglseder and forward Adam Koch to dominate on the inside. Combine that with a defense that fits the opponents’ offense like a glove, and we see the Missouri Valley team advancing.
Prediction: Northern Iowa 58 UNLV 53
#5 Michigan State (19.5) vs. #12 New Mexico St. (3.4)
We cannot see a 12-seed upset in this game. The Aggies have a negative R+T rating, which means they typically allow more scoring opportunities than they create. Against a seasoned NCAA Tournament team, one coming off a visit to the national title game, that won’t be the winning recipe.
Michigan State will win the rebounding battle by 10 or more in this game. If the Spartans don’t turn the ball over 18 or more times, they will be comfortably ahead by the first TV timeout of the second half.
Guard Chris Allen is expected to return to action after serving a one-game suspension for arguing with the coaching staff.
Prediction: Michigan State 75 New Mexico State 62
#4 Maryland (19.5) vs. #13 Houston (1.9)
Houston got hot and won the CUSA tournament after being picked to contend for the conference championship and finishing in the middle of the pack. The Cougars cannot rebound. While Maryland is only so-so on the boards, the Terps will win this battle by at least five caroms.
Houston relies on putting pressure on the ball and trying to play in the passing lanes to get steals and force turnovers. Maryland takes care of the ball and can exploit this type of defense.
Throw in the fact that the Terps play tough defense, and this one looks like a huge mismatch. Maryland comes mighty close to qualifying for the special field goal percentage criteria. They connect on 47.2% of their shots and hold opponents to 38.8%.
Prediction: Maryland 83 Houston 70
#6 Tennessee (18.9) vs. #11 San Diego State (15.6)
This has the makings of a good game between similar styles. Tennessee likes to force turnovers and run the break for quick baskets. In the half-court offense, they try to work the ball inside. The Volunteers aren’t the best outside shooting team.
San Diego State plays like your typical Steve Fisher-coached team. The Aztecs have a dominating inside game and hold a +6.7 rebounding edge over their opposition. The Aztecs aren’t great three-point shooters either, but inside the arc, they shoot almost 55%.
Tennessee is mad at being lowered to a number six seed in a year where they knocked off Kansas and Kentucky, but the Vols went only 10-7 away from home. They are primed to make a run to the Sweet 16 if the team has enough gas in the tank.
Prediction: Tennessee 72 San Diego State 65
#3 Georgetown (18.0) vs. #14 Ohio U (0.7)
This game is a mismatch similar to your typical 1-seed vs. 16-seed game. Ohio should have been a lower seed. The Bobcats finished below .500 in a weak MAC this year, and they have no chance against the Hoyas.
Georgetown is not as complete this year as in past seasons. They are a definite upset possibility, but it won’t happen in this round. The key to the Hoyas advancing to the Sweet 16 will be how much the regulars can rest in this one.
Prediction: Georgetown 72 Ohio 59
#7 Oklahoma State (6.2) vs. #10 Georgia Tech (9.5)
A very strong Big 12 allowed the Cowboys to move up to a seven-seed, when their performance looks more like a 10-seed. Georgia Tech belongs as a 10-seed, so this game should be close and exciting.
OSU is a hot and cold team that won’t be around next week. They either hit from behind the arc or get beat.
Georgia Tech isn’t a world-beater, but the Yellow Jackets play somewhat consistently. They will control the boards in this game, but they are turnover prone. OSU’s shot at winning hinges on how many times they can force Tech into floor mistakes. We think they will come up a bit short, but this game should be 40 minutes of entertaining ball.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 72 Oklahoma State 68
#2 Ohio State (16.8) vs. #15 UCSB (-4.5)
The Buckeyes won 16 of their final 18 games including the regular season and tournament championship in the Big Ten. Evan Turner is a mini-Magic Johnson. He can do it all, and he deserves serious consideration for national player of the year. He isn’t a one-man team, but the Buckeyes’ only liability is a lack of depth. They go only seven deep, and the two key reserves don’t contribute all that much.
UCSB is one of the two teams that must be immediately eliminated due to a negative R+T rating. Their stay in the Dance will last just one number, and they will feel like their rival cut in on them in the middle of the song.
Prediction: Ohio State 76 UCSB 54
West Regional
#1 Syracuse (23.6) vs. #16 Vermont (-3.8)
The ‘Cuse is primed for another run to the Final Four. Except for a lack of depth, this team would be even with Duke and Kansas. It won’t bother them in the first two rounds, as the Orange won’t be extended by pressure defense.
This is not the Vermont team of 2005 that actually won an opening round game. This version of Catamounts is just happy to be here, and they will put up no fuss and wave bye-bye after 40 minutes of tournament action.
We expect Vermont to keep it close for maybe 8-12 minutes before Syracuse goes on a big run and puts this one away before the intermission.
Prediction: Syracuse 90 Vermont 64
#8 Gonzaga (13.4) vs. #9 Florida State (14.4)
We don’t believe this will be Gonzaga’s year to advance to the Sweet 16. The Bulldogs don’t dominate on the glass and pick up nothing in turnover margin.
This Florida State team reminds us a lot of the Seminole teams of Hugh Durham. They play aggressive man-to-man defense and work the ball for intelligent shots.
Gonzaga needs a good shooting effort every time in order to win, and the Seminoles hold opponents to just 37.4% from the field.
Prediction: Florida State 67 Gonzaga 63
#5 Butler (14.2) vs. #12 UTEP (15.8)
This is a game that all five of us here would like to attend. We think it will be the best of the 5-12 games, and it won’t be an upset if UTEP wins. These teams are fairly even, and both are talented enough to advance to the second week.
If the question were, “which game has the best chance of going to overtime?” this game would receive strong consideration.
We will go with the Miners to win a great game and become the favorite in the next round in a possible second classic matchup against another double-digit seed. This is the 12-seed that has the best chance of pulling off the “upset.” We don’t call a 50-50 game an upset.
Prediction: UTEP 79 Butler 77 in overtime
#4 Vanderbilt (11.2) vs. #13 Murray State (18.0)
Murray State rates as one of four teams not from a big six conference that we believe has the talent to make it to the Sweet 16. The Racers are actually the most complete team in the tournament and best fit the criteria to go to the Final Four, but their schedule strength lowers their criteria out of that rarified air.
Murray outscores their opponents by 17 points per game. They shoot better than 50% from the field, and they allow only 38.6% shooting on defense. They control the boards with a +6.0 margin, and they force more than 17 turnovers per game with 10 steals per game.
Vanderbilt was a fatigued team down the stretch, closing 8-5 after opening 16-3. In that last 13 games, they outscored their opponents by just two per game. The Commodores just barely avoid being eliminated from consideration with an R+T of 0.6. They outrebound their opponents by 0.7 per game and have a slightly negative turnover margin. They rely too much on free throw shooting, and fouls are not called as frequently in the Big Dance.
We look for this to be a great game, but we’re going with another #13 seed to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Murray State 75 Vanderbilt 69
#6 Xavier (15.1) vs. #11 Minnesota (10.4)
Morgan State, Butler, Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Purdue are a good list of teams in the Big Dance. Minnesota owns wins over these seven Samurais. Xavier doesn’t have a showcase win this year, and the Musketeers are not as tough as they have been in recent seasons.
Tubby Smith’s teams always play well in the Big Dance, while this is the first go around for Xavier coach Chris Mack. In yet another mild upset, we believe Minnesota will advance to the second round.
Prediction: Minnesota 69 Xavier 66
#3 Pittsburgh (8.7) vs. #14 Oakland (4.3)
For those of you who believe the Selection Committee tries to put certain teams together, you might not see the irony in the pairing of these two teams. First, Oakland is not from California. The Golden Grizzlies are from Rochester, Michigan. Pittsburgh is located in the Oakland suburb of the Steel City. So, when we say the team from Oakland will win the game, we aren’t talking about the Golden State Warriors, and we’re not talking about the team with the word “Oakland” on their jerseys.
This is not the year for the Panthers. Their numbers aren’t all that good, and they will not advance to the Elite 8 this year. However, they will cruise in the opening round after maybe facing a struggle through the first couple of TV timeouts.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 67 Oakland 58
#7 BYU (24.5) vs. #10 Florida (10.5)
Many prognosticators are calling for the Gators to pull the small upset in the opening round, but we cannot see it happening.
BYU ranks along with Murray State as having the most complete criteria components in the tournament. The Cougars outscore their opposition by nearly 18 per game. They do tend to rely on a lot of foul shooting and three-point shots, but BYU also gets a lot of easy baskets via the fast break and secondary offense. Their R+T rating is a whopping 13.5, as they own a +5.1 rebounding margin, +4.1 turnover margin, and pick off 8.5 passes per game. Since they have a shooting percentage of 48.6%, they will score a lot of points.
Florida returns to the Big Dance for the first time since they won their second consecutive national title in 2007. This team is lacking what those two champions had—a dominating inside game. Center Vernon Macklin is capable of putting up decent numbers, but the Gators rely on perimeter players Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton to get the job done. Walker is just 5-8, and he will have a tough time against the tall and lanky BYU guards.
Look for Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery to outduel the Florida guards, and the Cougars will prevail in a fast-paced game.
Prediction: BYU 85 Florida 77
#2 Kansas State (25.9) vs. #15 North Texas (-3.22)
After Duke, Kansas State may have drawn the best possible bracket. The Wildcats have the talent to win this regional and possibly set up a fourth game with their in-state rival in the National Semifinal.
This will be a fun team to watch. Kansas State coach Frank Martin is a combination of Al McGuire and Bobby Knight with a little Bob Huggins thrown in. He’s the coach most likely to implode or spontaneous combust during a game. His antics are working this year, and his players respond by playing like their life is on the line.
North Texas will get killed on the boards in this game, and they don’t have a ball-hawking defense to even it out with a great turnover margin. Unlike conference rival Western Kentucky, the Mean Green will not carry on the Sunbelt Conference’s recent success in the tourney.
Prediction: Kansas State 82 North Texas 65
Our Bracket
You have seen the 32 teams we believe will win the first round games. Here is how we fill out the rest of our bracket.
Second Round Winners
Kentucky over Texas in a close game
Wisconsin over Temple
New Mexico over Washington
West Virginia over Clemson
Duke over Louisville
Texas A&M over Siena
Baylor over Notre Dame
Villanova over St. Mary’s
Kansas over Northern Iowa
Michigan State over Maryland in a great game
Tennessee over Georgetown
Ohio State over Georgia Tech
Syracuse over Florida State
UTEP over Murray State
Minnesota over Pittsburgh
Kansas State over BYU in a thriller
Sweet 16 Winners
Kentucky over Wisconsin
West Virginia over New Mexico
Duke over Texas A&M
Baylor over Villanova
Kansas over Michigan State but a fantastic upset bid
Ohio State over Tennessee
Syracuse over UTEP
Kansas State over Minnesota
Elite 8 Winners
West Virginia over Kentucky
Duke over Baylor
Kansas over Ohio State
Kansas State over Syracuse
Semifinal Winners
Duke over West Virginia
Kansas State over Kansas (The Wildcats finally beat KU in their fourth try)
National Championship
Duke over Kansas State
Might Coach K pull a John Wooden and announce his retirement after winning the semifinal game? Might he be tempted to take a very large pay raise to coach the Nets for a year or two and then enjoy real retirement like his mentor The General is enjoying?