We will be posting three bowl previews this year. We will give you the current odds for each game, the PiRate, Mean, and Bias spreads for each game, and our 100 times computer simulation for each game.
Today, we cover the bowls before Christmas Day. Next week, we will preview the bowls from December 26 through New Year’s Day. Finally, we will preview the bowls after January 1. Three bowls kick off Saturday, and four more will be played next week.
Saturday, December 18
New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM
1 PM EST on ESPN
Brigham Young Cougars 6-6 vs. Texas-El Paso Miners 6-6
Vegas: BYU by 11 ½
Totals: 50 ½
PiRate: BYU by 18.8
Mean: BYU by 12.3
Bias: BYU by 14.8
100 Sims: BYU 89 UTEP 11
Avg. Sim Score: BYU 33.7 UTEP 20.2
Outlier A: BYU 45 UTEP 17
Outlier B: UTEP 29 BYU 23
Humanitarian Bowl
Boise, ID
4:30 PM EST on ESPN
Fresno State Bulldogs 8-4 vs. Northern Illinois Huskies 10-3
Vegas: Northern Illinois by 1
Totals: 59
PiRate: Northern Illinois by 4.4
Mean: Northern Illinois by 4.1
Bias: Northern Illinois by 9.6
100 Sims: Northern Illinois 58 Fresno State 42
Avg. Sim Score: Northern Illinois 34.6 Fresno State 30.1
Outlier A: Northern Illinois 42 Fresno State 23
Outlier B: Fresno State 37 Northern Illinois 27
New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA
8:00 PM EST on ESPN
Troy Trojans 7-5 vs. Ohio U Bobcats 8-4
Vegas: Troy by 2 ½
Totals: 58
PiRate: Ohio U by 3.6
Mean: Ohio U by 2.1
Bias: Ohio U by 16.2
100 Sims: Ohio U 61 Troy 39
Avg. Sim Score: Ohio U 35.1 Troy 29.8
Outlier A: Ohio U 41 Troy 17
Outlier B: Troy 38 Ohio U 27
Tuesday, December 21
Beef O’Brady Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 8-4 vs. Louisville Cardinals 6-6
Vegas: Louisville by 3
Totals: 57
PiRate: Louisville by 5.7
Mean: Louisville by 1.2
Bias: Louisville by 10.5
100 Sims: Louisville 60 Southern Miss 40
Avg. Sim Score: Louisville 31.1 Southern Miss 27.9
Outlier A: Louisville 35 Southern Miss 13
Outlier B: Southern Miss 40 Louisville 21
Wednesday, December 22
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Utah Utes 10-2 vs. Boise State Broncos 11-1
Vegas: Boise State by 17
Totals: 61
PiRate: Boise State by 17.7
Mean: Boise State by 14.0
Bias: Boise State by 16.6
100 Sims: Boise State 76 Utah 24
Avg. Sim Score: Boise State 40.3 Utah 24.1
Outlier A: Boise State 51 Utah 20
Outlier B: Utah 38 Boise State 31 (two different results gave Utah a 7-point win)
Thursday, December 23
Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
San Diego State Aztecs 8-4 vs. Navy Midshipmen 9-3
Vegas: San Diego State by 4 ½
Totals: 60
PiRate: San Diego State by 5.6
Mean: San Diego State by 0.8
Bias: San Diego State by 4.3
100 Sims: San Diego State 55 Navy 45
Avg. Sim Score: San Diego State 32.8 Navy 30.7
Outlier A: San Diego State 44 Navy 24
Outlier B: Navy 38 San Diego State 26
Friday, December 24
Hawaii Bowl
Honolulu, HI
7:00 PM EST on ESPN
Hawaii Warriors 10-3 vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 9-3
Vegas: Hawaii by 10
Totals: 73 ½
PiRate: Hawaii by 14.6
Mean: Hawaii by 6.2
Bias: Hawaii by 9.9
100 Sims: Hawaii 58 Tulsa 42
Avg. Sim Score: Hawaii 46.4 Tulsa 40.2
Outlier A: Hawaii 59 Tulsa 35
Outlier B: Tulsa 47 Hawaii 38
The Pi-Rate Ratings 