PiRate Picks For September 16-20, 2021

After a swing and a miss on opening week of the football season, last week we went two for two with big wins. Not only did we win both of our Money Line Parlays, we mentioned a first week NFL system that has worked well over the course of a couple of decades. We told you that even though we are only issuing Money Line Parlays this year, that playing the NFL underdogs of 1/2 to 3 points in Week 1 was a winning proposition. There were seven such underdogs last week, and playing them and the points went 5-2.

For the year, our pretend bank account has wagered pretend money on four games, $400 at $100 per wager, and we have received $604.56 in return from the pretend book. That’s a return on investment of 51.14%.

Now, the pressure is on to keep that profit and not give it back to the imaginary book. We begin including NFL games this week, and we have chosen four different parlays, each with more than +120 odds. Additionally, we are doing something we have only done three or four times in the last decade–combine a college game and NFL game into a parlay. We are number’s enthusiasts here on the PiRate ship, so sometimes we are left with orphan numbers needing to go to a matchmaking service. Combining college and pro football games into a hopeful match is rare for us, but there is no real reason not to do it. We just like to know at 1 AM on Sundays whether we won or not.

Enjoy these four parlays, but remember that these are for entertainment purposes only. We strongly urge you not to wager real money on these picks unless you have done your own research, and this feature merely verifies your own findings.

This Week’s Money Line Parlays

Date:	Sept 16-20
Odds:	+182
Must Win	Opponent
Kansas St.	Nevada
Troy	Southern Miss.
Odds:	+126.42
Must Win	Opponent
Mississippi St.	Memphis
Denver	Jacksonville
Odds:	+140.08
Must Win	Opponent
LA Rams	Indianapolis
Kansas City	Baltimore
Odds:	+127.91
Must Win	Opponent
Arizona	Minnesota
Seattle	Tennessee

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 11, 2020

Date	3/11/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Dayton	Baylor
2	San Diego St.	Florida St.	Villanova	Creighton
3	Duke	Kentucky	Seton Hall	Michigan St.
4	Maryland	Louisville	Oregon	Wisconsin
5	Ohio St.	Auburn	Butler	BYU
6	West Virginia	Iowa	Penn St.	Virginia
7	Illinois	Colorado	Michigan	Arizona
8	Houston	Providence	LSU	Saint Mary’s
9	USC	Marquette	Oklahoma	Rutgers
10	Arizona St.	Florida	Indiana	Utah St.
11	E. Tennessee St.	Stanford	Xavier	Wichita St.	Texas Tech
12	Yale	Liberty	S. F. Austin	Richmond	UCLA
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	Bradley	Belmont	Hofstra	Colgate
15	UC-Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock	E. Washington
16	N. Kentucky	Winthrop	Siena	Prairie View	Robert Morris	N. C.  A&T

 

Last Four Byes:  Florida, Indiana, Stanford, and Xavier

Last Four IN: Wichita St., Texas Tech, Richmond, and UCLA

First Four OUT: North Carolina St., Cincinnati, Texas, and Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: Memphis, Northern Iowa, Purdue, and Saint Louis

 

Note:  Starting with today’s Bracketology and continuing for our final two Bracketology predictions (Friday and Sunday), our seed lines now reflect our beliefs that the NCAA Selection Committee will have some political beliefs that alter seed lines.  For instance, we moved Virginia up one seed strictly because they are the defending champions, and we believe some members on the Selection Committee will lobby on their behalf to be moved higher up.  

We are closely monitoring Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference.  Any blip that comes DU’s way might move the Flyers down to the 2-seed line if an elite team like Duke, Michigan St., or Kentucky romps through their conference tournament.

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 3, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Abilene Christian	Stephen F. Austin	-1.9
Akron	Ohio	10.0
Alabama	Vanderbilt	14.4
Ball St.	Central Michigan	8.0
Boston College	Syracuse	-4.5
Bucknell	Holy Cross	13.0
Buffalo	Miami (O)	8.3
Charleston Southern	Presbyterian	4.9
DePaul	Marquette	-3.7
Georgia Southern	Arkansas St.	8.4
Georgia St.	Little Rock	4.3
Hartford	Maine	7.6
Illinois Chicago	IUPUI	10.5
Iowa	Purdue	4.7
Iowa St.	West Virginia	-3.8
Kent St.	Bowling Green	4.8
Kentucky	Tennessee	8.8
Lehigh	Loyola (MD)	1.3
Liberty	NJIT	17.5
Lipscomb	Florida Gulf Coast	6.5
Louisiana	Coastal Carolina	-0.6
New Hampshire	UMass Lowell	4.8
North Carolina	Wake Forest	5.5
North Florida	Jacksonville	9.0
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.8
Oakland	Cleveland St.	7.4
Oklahoma	Texas	6.1
Penn St.	Michigan St.	-0.4
Richmond	Davidson	4.4
Rutgers	Maryland	0.3
South Alabama	Texas St.	-1.5
South Carolina	Mississippi St.	2.0
South Carolina Upstate	High Point	5.2
South Florida	Cincinnati	-3.3
Stetson	North Alabama	1.7
Troy	UT Arlington	-6.8
UL Monroe	Appalachian St.	-2.1
UMBC	Stony Brook	-3.4
UNC Asheville	Campbell	0.6
VCU	Duquesne	6.8
Vermont	Albany	16.8
Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	-0.8
Youngstown St.	Milwaukee	5.1

 

Key TV Games On Tuesday

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
6:30 PM	SECN	South Carolina	Mississippi St.
7:00 PM	BTN	Rutgers	Maryland
7:00 PM	ESPN	Penn St.	Michigan St.
9:00 PM	ESPN	Kentucky	Tennessee
9:00 PM	BTN	Iowa	Purdue
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Oklahoma	Texas

 

Conference Tournament Schedule For Tuesday

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament
Quarterfinals	March 3	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
1 Liberty (27-4)	8 NJIT (9-20)	7:00 PM	ESPN+
4 Stetson (15-16)	5 North Alabama (13-16)	7:00 PM	ESPN+
3 Lipscomb (14-15)	6 Florida Gulf Coast (10-21)	7:00 PM	ESPN+
2 North Florida (20-11)	7 Jacksonville (14-17)	7:00 PM	ESPN+

 

 

 

Big South Tournament
1st Round	March 3	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
7 USC Upstate (12-19)	10 High Point (9-22)	7:00 PM	ESPN3
6 UNC-Asheville (14-15)	11 Campbell (15-15)	7:00 PM	ESPN3
8 Charleston Sou. (13-17)	9 Presbyterian (10-21)	7:00 PM	ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament
1st Round	March 3	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
4 Illinois Chicago (14-17)	9 IUPUI (7-24)	8:00 PM	ESPN+
5 Youngstown (17-14)	8 Milwaukee (12-18)	7:00 PM	ESPN+
6 Oakland (13-18)	7 Cleveland St. (11-20)	7:00 PM	ESPN+

 

 

Patriot League Tournament
1st Round	March 3	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
7 Bucknell (12-19)	10 Holy Cross (3-28)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network
8 Lehigh (10-20)	9 Loyola (MD) (15-16)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 2, 2020

Date	3/2/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Baylor	San Diego St.
2	Dayton	Maryland	Florida St.	Seton Hall
3	Duke	Villanova	Louisville	Kentucky
4	Creighton	Oregon	Michigan St.	Penn St.
5	Auburn	Iowa	Ohio St.	Colorado
6	Butler	Wisconsin	BYU	West Virginia
7	Michigan	Arizona	Marquette	Illinois
8	Houston	LSU	Virginia	Texas Tech
9	Saint Mary’s	Florida	Arizona St.	Xavier
10	USC	Indiana	Oklahoma	Rutgers
11	Providence	Stanford	East Tennessee	Northern Iowa
12	Yale	Liberty	Wichita St.	Utah St.	Cincinnati	Rhode Island
13	Stephen F. Austin	Vermont	North Texas	Akron
14	New Mexico St.	Hofstra	Belmont	Colgate
15	UC-Irvine	Little Rock	Wright St.	South Dakota St.
16	Montana	Radford	Siena	Prairie View	St. Francis (PA)	N.C. A&T

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69	UCLA
70	Mississippi St.
71	North Carolina St.
72	Richmond
73	Memphis
74	Texas
75	Arkansas
76	Alabama

 

Notes

(1.)  The last two at-large teams in the field, Cincinnati and Rhode Island, rate less than one-half point ahead of the first team out of the field, UCLA, and less then one point ahead of the next team out, Mississippi St.

(2.) Stephen F. Austin and Vermont actually rank ahead of the last two in and first two out, but we cannot put four mid-major teams in the 12-seed spot, and make the play-in games a battle of 13-seeds.

(3.) No political alterations have been made in this bracketology release.  These 68 + 8 teams listed here are 100% mechanically derived using our unique statistical criteria.  Had we applied some political bend to this report, some of the teams would have been moved on their seed lines, and UCLA would be moved into the field ahead of Rhode Island, because we believe the Selection Committee would be forced to take the Pac-12’s conference champion (assuming UCLA does win the Pac-12)

 

Coming Later Today:  Conference Tournament action begins tomorrow evening.  We will release the schedules and bracketing for the conference tournaments that are set to begin in the next few days.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 21, 2020

Date	2/21/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Maryland	Florida St.
3	Seton Hall	Creighton	Louisville	Villanova
4	Penn St.	West Virginia	Kentucky	Colorado
5	Oregon	Auburn	Butler	Iowa
6	Michigan St.	Arizona	Ohio St.	Marquette
7	Michigan	BYU	Houston	Wisconsin
8	Illinois	LSU	Texas Tech	Rutgers
9	Saint Mary’s	Xavier	Florida	Rhode Island
10	Arizona St.	Wichita St.	Oklahoma	Virginia
11	USC	Indiana	Northern Iowa	USC
12	Liberty	Yale	Utah St.	N. Carolina St.	Richmond	Cincinnati
13	Stephen F. Austin	Vermont	North Texas	Akron
14	New Mexico St.	Colgate	Wright St.	Hofstra
15	South Dakota St.	UC-Irvine	Little Rock	Montana
16	Winthrop	Austin Peay	Prairie View	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69	Georgetown
70	Purdue
71	Mississippi St.
72	Stanford
73	Providence
74	South Carolina
75	Arkansas
76	Alabama
77	UNC Greensboro
78	Memphis

The First Four

Opening Round in Dayton

12 Seed Game: Utah St. vs. Cincinnati

12 Seed Game: North Carolina St. vs. Richmond

16 Seed Game: Norfolk St. vs. Prairie View

16 Seed Game: Siena vs. St. Francis (PA)

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 10, 2020

Date	2/10/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	Maryland
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	West Virginia	Auburn
4	Villanova	Butler	Oregon	Penn St.
5	Kentucky	Michigan St.	Iowa	Creighton
6	LSU	Colorado	Marquette	Illinois
7	Arizona	Rutgers	Wisconsin	Michigan
8	Houston	Texas Tech	BYU	Ohio St.
9	USC	Purdue	Wichita St.	Arkansas
10	Saint Mary’s	Rhode Island	Oklahoma	Florida
11	Xavier	Indiana	Northern Iowa	Stanford	Virginia
12	E. Tennessee St.	Yale	S. F. Austin	Mississippi St.	VCU
13	Liberty	Vermont	New Mexico St.	North Texas
14	Bowling Green	Wright St.	Colgate	Hofstra
15	Winthrop	Little Rock	Murray St.	UC-Irvine
16	South Dakota St.	Montana	Prairie View	Rider	Robert Morris	N. Carolina A&T
The Bubble Contenders
69	Arizona St.
70	Cincinnati
71	Memphis
72	Utah St.
73	Minnesota
74	N. Carolina St.
75	Richmond
76	Syracuse
77	Notre Dame
78	Furman

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 7, 2020

Date	2/7/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	West Virginia
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	Maryland	Villanova
4	Butler	Auburn	Oregon	Michigan St.
5	Penn St.	Creighton	Kentucky	Iowa
6	LSU	Colorado	Arizona	Marquette
7	Illinois	Ohio St.	Rutgers	Houston
8	Texas Tech	Wisconsin	Michigan	Wichita St.
9	BYU	Arkansas	USC	Saint Mary’s
10	Indiana	Rhode Island	Florida	Stanford
11	Xavier	Memphis	Northern Iowa	Virginia	Purdue
12	East Tennessee St.	Yale	Liberty	VCU	Cincinnati
13	Stephen F. Austin	North Texas	Vermont	New Mexico St.
14	Wright St.	Colgate	Bowling Green	Little Rock
15	Hofstra	Winthrop	Murray St.	UC-Irvine
16	South Dakota St.	Northern Colorado	Prairie View	Monmouth	Robert Morris	North Carolina A&T
The Bubble Contenders
69	Oklahoma
70	Mississippi St.
71	Arizona St.
72	Minnesota
73	Georgetown
74	Tulsa
75	Utah St.
76	Richmond
77	North Carolina St.
78	Providence

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 3, 2020

Date	2/3/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Gonzaga	Kansas	San Diego St.
2	Duke	Dayton	Louisville	West Virginia
3	Seton Hall	Florida St.	Maryland	Villanova
4	Michigan St.	Butler	Auburn	Oregon
5	Iowa	LSU	Creighton	Penn St.
6	Kentucky	Colorado	Illinois	Arizona
7	Marquette	Rutgers	Ohio St.	Houston
8	Wisconsin	Arkansas	Michigan	Wichita St.
9	Stanford	BYU	USC	Saint Mary’s
10	Indiana	Florida	Rhode Island	Oklahoma
11	Texas Tech	Memphis	Northern Iowa	VCU	Mississippi St.
12	East Tennessee St.	Yale	Liberty	Virginia	Xavier
13	Stephen F. Austin	Louisiana Tech	Vermont	New Mexico St.
14	Wright St.	UC-Irvine	Colgate	Bowling Green
15	Winthrop	Little Rock	Hofstra	Murray St.
16	South Dakota St.	Eastern Washington	Texas Southern	Monmouth	Robert Morris	North Carolina A&T

 

First Four Out
Purdue	Georgetown	Arizona St.	Tulsa

Next Four Out
Cincinnati	Utah St.	Minnesota	Alabama

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Butler	107.5	3.0	Xavier	106.2	4.3
Duke	124.7	2.5	Wake Forest	98.6	28.6
Michigan St.	120.5	3.0	Nebraska	109.7	13.8
Florida St.	114.4	3.0	Virginia Tech	115.7	1.7
Ohio	98.6	2.5	Buffalo	115.1	-14.0
Akron	103.2	2.0	Bowling Green	104.7	0.5
Eastern Michigan	100.9	2.5	Ball St.	103.1	0.3
Binghamton	89.3	2.0	Albany	93.0	-1.7
Hartford	99.0	2.5	Stony Brook	100.0	1.5
New Hampshire	84.8	2.5	Maine	88.4	-1.1
Texas A&M	105.8	3.0	South Carolina	105.4	3.4
Central Michigan	103.2	3.0	Northern Illinois	101.1	5.1
Toledo	108.5	3.0	Western Michigan	94.8	16.7
Saint Joseph’s	98.6	3.0	Rhode Island	100.9	0.7
Miami (O)	102.6	2.5	Kent St.	101.7	3.4
Hampton	98.6	2.5	Longwood	93.0	8.1
Charleston Southern	99.5	2.0	USC Upstate	87.5	14.0
Presbyterian	98.3	2.0	UNC Asheville	85.7	14.6
Lafayette	92.5	2.5	Holy Cross	95.6	-0.6
Boston U	96.1	2.5	Loyola (MD)	94.2	4.4
George Mason	101.4	3.0	Virginia Commonwealth	110.4	-6.0
Boston College	104.7	3.0	North Carolina	121.2	-13.5
Vermont	105.2	3.0	UMass Lowell	94.9	13.3
Minnesota	109.6	3.0	Purdue	117.6	-5.0
Abilene Christian	100.7	3.0	Stephen F Austin	91.6	12.1
Green Bay	97.4	3.0	Illinois Chicago	97.8	2.6
Wright St.	102.7	3.0	IUPUI	98.3	7.4
Miami (Fla)	106.3	3.0	Pittsburgh	104.8	4.5
Tennessee	118.7	3.0	Mississippi St.	113.6	8.1
Ole Miss	110.3	3.0	Kentucky	117.9	-4.6
Oklahoma	110.9	3.0	Kansas	115.1	-1.2
Alabama	108.3	3.0	Auburn	114.7	-3.4
Wichita St.	104.6	3.0	East Carolina	94.0	13.6
Colorado St.	99.5	3.0	Utah St.	110.9	-8.4
Air Force	95.9	2.5	Nevada	113.8	-15.4

 

Conference Tournament Updates

Atlantic Sun 

Quarterfinal Results

1 Lipscomb	86	8 Kennesaw St.	71
2 Liberty	72	7 Jacksonville	58
3 North Florida	76	6 North Alabama	66
5 NJIT	83	4 Florida GC	78

 

Semifinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Lipscomb (24-6)	5	NJIT (21-11)
2	Liberty (26-6)	3	North Florida (16-16)

 

Big South

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
7	Presbyterian (17-14)	10	UNC-Asheville (4-26)
6	Charleston Southern (15-14)	11	USC Upstate (6-25)
8	Hampton (14-15)	9	Longwood (15-16)

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 & Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
1 (Tue)	Wright St. (19-12)	8	IUPUI (16-15)
4 (Tue)	Green Bay (16-15)	5	Illinois-Chicago (16-15)
3 (Wed)	Oakland (15-16)	6	Youngstown St. (12-19)
2 (Wed)	Northern Kentucky (23-8)	7	Detroit (11-19)

 

Patriot League

First Round–Tuesday, March 5
Seed	Home		Visitors
8	Boston U (14-17)	9	Loyola (MD) (11-20)
7	Lafayette (10-19)	10	Holy Cross (15-16)

Coming Later Today: Updated Bracketology

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Elite 8 Round

The quarterfinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and unlike the first round, there were some surprises.

If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:
https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

Here is the schedule for today’s quarterfinal round games:
#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
#6 Florida State at #3 T C U
#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio State

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.

#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
Final Score: Alabama 30 Mississippi St. 17

Stats
First Downs: AL 24 MS 16
Rushing: AL 41-209 MS 29-137
Passing: AL 226 MS 168
Passes: AL 20-34-1 MS 19-29-2
Play-Yds: AL 75-435 MS 58-305
After 1st Qtr: AL 6 MS 0
Half: AL 16 MS 7
After 3rd Qtr: AL 23 MS 10

 

#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
Final Score: Ole Miss 24 Oregon 22

Stats
First Downs: OM 19 OR 19
Rushing: OM 28-118 OR 41-189
Passing: OM 309 OR 231
Passes: OM 28-44-1 OR 24-45-1
Play-Yds: OM 72-427 OR 86-420
After 1st Qtr: OM 7 OR 6
Half: OM 21 OR 12
After 3rd Qtr: OM 21 OR 19

 

#6 Florida St. at #3 TCU
Final Score: TCU 42 Florida St. 24

Stats
First Downs: TC 26 FS 18
Rushing: TC 34-177 FS 30-99
Passing: TC 289 FS 308
Passes: TC 25-38-0 FS 26-49-3
Play-Yds: TC 72-466 FS 79-407
After 1st Qtr: TC 14 FS 0
Half: TC 28 FS 14
After 3rd Qtr: TC 42 FS 24

 

#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio St.
Final Score: Baylor 40 Ohio St. 38

Stats
First Downs BA 30 OS 23
Rushing: BA 28-109 OS 45-313
Passing: BA 484 OS 210
Passes: BA 38-51-0 OS 18-29-1
Play-Yds: BA 79-593 OS 74-523
After 1st Qtr: OS 17 BA 10
Half: OS 31 BA 19
After 3rd Qtr: OS 38 BA 26

The Final Four Is Now Set. Moving on to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl, we have #3 TCU and #7 Ole Miss. Facing off in the Sugar Bowl, #5 Baylor challenges top-seeded Alabama.
Return to this site on Friday, December 19 for the results of that simulation.