The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 8, 2022

PiRate Picks For September 9-10, 2022

Last week, the most important part of our PiRate Picks publication was telling you that a broken clock is still correct twice a day. Please remember this, because we have experienced our broken clock accuracy up front this year. For the second week in a row, our selections went 3-0 to give us a 6-0 record to start the season. We know there are about 150-200 new visitors to this site since the 2021-22 College Football National Championship. Get this and get it good–we are not svengali’s. We are not Billy Walters. We aren’t even Brent Musberger and his incredible cast of handicappers. What are we? Really lucky and not much more than that.

Every week, we preface our selections by urging (begging) you not to wager real currency on the selections you read on this site. We know that there are a considerable number of professional speculators in the Nevada gold mines. We don’t have to tell you what to do with your occupation. It’s Joe Tackletrap in Wichita Falls, Texas, who makes $40,000 a year working himself silly that can ill afford to lose $500 that we have concerns about losing $500 because he wagered $100 each on five selections and lost them all, as he saw his mortgage payment money taken away.

Last week, we casually mentioned that there were some people in Nevada that we had information that they were following this site. Wow! We heard from six different people, two of whom represent a consortium of others, telling us they follow this site. And, they were not all from Las Vegas. We have to give some love to the biggest little city in America–Reno. There’s somebody there that sent us a little note.

For one paragraph, let’s pretend that we really did speculate these first two weeks of the football season, wagering $100 ($110) on margins and totals and $100 on the money line parlay. With the 6-0 record, including a parlay that paid back $241.77, our pretend starting bank account of $1,000 would now be worth $1,641.77. Making a 64% profit in two weeks in real life would quickly lead us to cash out and play no more games. That would be our Holiday Fund for this year.

What are the chances that our picks will be perfect again this week? The prior best first three week start we have ever had was a 9-3-1 start to the 2008 season. In most years, September is our worst month, with a big turnaround in October. Thus, we still do not have much confidence in our September picks. It’s merely the law of averages giving us a positive outlier.

Now that we have adequately warned you, we present our picks for this week. We are going with five selections.

Selection #1: Missouri and Kansas State UNDER 56 1/2

Our belief here is that the Wildcats will play a bit conservatively in the first half trying to keep the ball away from the Tiger offense, as Coach Chris Kleiman is a defense first leader. Missouri scored 52 points against a weak Louisiana Tech defense, and our belief is that the totals line might be a tad too high due to this. KSU’s defense pitched a shutout over FCS South Dakota. The Coyotes are not the top team in the Mount Rushmore state, but their offense is consistent. We see this game as a 28-20 win for the Wildcats. That gives us an extra touchdown to be wrong and still be right.

Selection #2: Iowa and Iowa State OVER 39 1/2

Iowa failed to reach the end zone against South Dakota State, winning 7-3 on a field goal and two safeties. The public looked at a Big Ten team’s offense failing to score on an FCS opponent and didn’t realize two important factors. First, South Dakota State is probably better than 60-75 FBS teams. Second, a college football team improves the most during a season in the practices between game one and game two. You can bet that this week in Iowa City, the offensive units in Hawkeye Land have had just about enough of hearing how lame they were in the opener. Over in Ames, Iowa State’s offense is far superior to its defense. Giving up 10 points to SEMO is nothing like Iowa’s holding SDSU to 3. SEMO is a mediocre Ohio Valley Conference team. Iowa will unleash its offense this week and top 20 points. Our hope is that Iowa State will respond in kind and make this a 24-21 game, topping 39 1/2 points.

Selection #3: Florida and Kentucky OVER 52 1/2

Florida came through for us last week, winning as an underdog when we believed the wrong team was favored. Kentucky overcame a slow start and eventually slaughtered a decent but not spectacular Miami of Ohio team. We believe that the Florida team that almost beat Alabama in 2021 before the team quit on former coach Dan Mullen has returned. If they could score 29 on Alabama last year and 29 on a tough Utah defense in week one, the Gators should put the chomp on Kentucky’s defense for more than 35 points. Can Kentucky’s offense produce 17 points or more? We think they Wildcats will top 20 points, and thus we believe the total in this game will top 56.

Selection #4: Arizona +11 1/2 vs. Mississippi State

This game is a tad different from how we normally play home underdogs. We tend to like our home dogs to get 1 to 7 points. We are making an exception here because it is our belief that few too people saw how the Wildcats went to San Diego State on the Christening of their new stadium and spoiled the party for the home team. We have been keeping our eyes on Coach Jedd Fisch since his arrival in Tucson. It is our beliefe that ‘Zona may have found their football equivalent of Lute Olson. His pedigree is about as incredible as a long-time assistant coach can own. Going up against a Mike Leach-coached team, this late night desert dogfight is going to give us reason to brew an evening pot of coffee. This could be the most entertaining game of Week Two, and we expect the home team to be in it for the entire 60 minutes. What’s great about this selection is that the superior SEC is having to play at the Pac-12 opponent’s home field rather than watch the Pac-12 team make the 2,000+ mile trip to the Southeast. Mississippi State could win this game 31-21, 34-24, 38-28, 35-24, 38-27 and still not cover. We tend to believe that this game will be a 3 to 7 point game in either direction.

Selection #5: Money Line Parlay at +172.97

Central Florida over Louisville

Arkansas over South Carolina

Florida over Kentucky

Louisville looked terrible in a blowout loss at Syracuse and did not look ready to play. Coach Scott Satterfield is sitting on a scorching hot seat, as he has had UL detractors since his hiring. At the same time, Gus Malzahn has quickly become a favored coach in Orlando, and Central Florida looks like a real contender for the American Athletic Conference Championship. In addition, UCF has had this game circled on their schedule and calendar. UL won this game on a pick six last year. The Cardinals are headed to an ambush in Orlando.

The Arkansas-South Carolina game should be quite interesting as two very good SEC teams face off in Fayetteville. We were a bit concerned with Spencer Rattler’s performance against Georgia State, as it was a little too similar to the performances he turned in at Oklahoma, which cost him his starting spot. Arkansas has a much better pass rush and secondary than Georgia State, and their offense at times pushed Cincinnati’s defense around. We see Pig Sooey winning by 10-14 points if not more.

Kentucky has defeated Florida twice in four years, after going mutiple decades without a win over the Gators. Billy Napier has quickly become a favorite in the Swamp almost on par with Steve Spurrier. He probably is the most like former Gator coaches Ray Graves and Doug Dickey than Spurrier or any coaches since. The Gators will be prepared and ready to play every week. Napier is part of both the Nick Saben and Dabo Swinney coaching trees. He knows how to run a program, and his year at Louisiana proved it. Kentucky and coach Mark Stoops are not exactly chopped liver. The Wildcats have a potent team with an NFL prospect under center. Will Levis could be a top three pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Kentucky could be the second best team in the SEC East, but they could be the third or fourth best too. We believe that the Gators will come into this game not resting on their laurels after pulling off the biggest win of Week One. Napier won’t let them get swollen heads. We’re going with Florida in a thriller, and we see the Gators winning 38-28.

February 1, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, February 1, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
VirginiaBoston College7.9
ConnecticutCreighton10.2
Iowa St.Kansas-3.7
MarylandMichigan St.-4.2
TennesseeTexas A&M11.5
SienaCanisius3.3
DuquesneRichmond-6.8
St. BonaventureDavidson1.5
Western MichiganNorthern Illinois0.3
OhioBall St.12.6
Eastern MichiganToledo-11.6
Central MichiganBowling Green-6.4
Miami (O)Kent St.0.8
Mississippi St.South Carolina7.7
NorthwesternRutgers6.5
LouisvilleNorth Carolina-3.9
GeorgetownSeton Hall-8.3
AuburnAlabama7.1
Texas TechTexas4.6
St. John’sProvidence0.8
LSUMississippi15.0
Wichita St.Tulsa8.4
Utah St.Air Force16.5
MichiganNebraska15.0
StanfordCalifornia5.6
UC RiversideUC Davis7.0
UNLVNevada4.2
San Jose St.Fresno St.-12.0

January 31, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date1/31/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnArizonaBaylor
2KentuckyPurdueHoustonVillanova
3KansasUCLATexas TechDuke
4TennesseeLSUIllinoisMichigan St.
5ConnecticiutTexasOhio St.Wisconsin
6AlabamaXavierIowa St.Iowa
7Saint Mary’sUSCMarquetteIndiana
8ProvidenceLoyola (Chi.)Boise St.BYU
9North CarolinaOklahomaWake ForestMiami (Fla.)
10Colorado St.TCUArkansasWyoming
11MichiganOregonMurray St.Davidson
12ChattanoogaIonaFloridaSan FranciscoNotre DameSan Diego St.
13ToledoVermontSouth Dakota St.North Texas
14OaklandWagnerSeattleJacksonville St.
15Weber St.UNC-WilmingtonNavyYale
16HawaiiAppalachian St.LongwoodNorfolk St.New OrleansSouthern

Best of the Rest

69Creighton
70Seton Hall
71Mississippi St.
72West Virginia
73Belmont
74SMU
75Washington St.
76Virginia Tech

January 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 12, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
XavierVillanova0.3
RadfordLongwood-2.3
Wake ForestDuke-5.6
Michigan St.Minnesota11.1
FloridaLSU-2.9
TulsaTemple3.3
Central FloridaMemphis-1.5
CincinnatiEast Carolina10.9
Morehead St.UT Martin13.9
North Carolina A&THampton7.7
Gardner-WebbPresbyterian9.1
CampbellCharleston Southern16.3
Notre DameClemson0.9
VermontStony Brook11.1
AlbanyUMass Lowell-2.2
NJITUMBC0.9
Rhode IslandSaint Joseph’s8.0
FordhamDuquesne1.9
Western CarolinaChattanooga-13.5
WoffordSamford10.7
FurmanEast Tennessee St.8.3
UNC WilmingtonElon1.2
Mississippi St.Georgia15.0
Norfolk St.Delaware St.18.6
USC UpstateHigh Point-1.8
Colorado St.Utah St.3.9
Wichita St.Tulane9.0
SMUSouth Florida15.2
Missouri St.Southern Illinois7.5
DrakeIllinois St.10.8
BradleyEvansville9.4
ConnecticutSt. John’s10.6
LouisvilleNC St.7.3
VirginiaVirginia Tech-1.8
Boston CollegeGeorgia Tech0.6
Kansas St.TCU2.1
ArkansasMissouri12.5
NorthwesternMaryland4.1
PacificSanta Clara-8.5
WashingtonCalifornia-0.8
California BaptistDixie St.8.6
SeattleUtah Valley-1.1
NevadaBoise St.-1.2

September 15, 2021

PiRate Picks For September 16-20, 2021

After a swing and a miss on opening week of the football season, last week we went two for two with big wins. Not only did we win both of our Money Line Parlays, we mentioned a first week NFL system that has worked well over the course of a couple of decades. We told you that even though we are only issuing Money Line Parlays this year, that playing the NFL underdogs of 1/2 to 3 points in Week 1 was a winning proposition. There were seven such underdogs last week, and playing them and the points went 5-2.

For the year, our pretend bank account has wagered pretend money on four games, $400 at $100 per wager, and we have received $604.56 in return from the pretend book. That’s a return on investment of 51.14%.

Now, the pressure is on to keep that profit and not give it back to the imaginary book. We begin including NFL games this week, and we have chosen four different parlays, each with more than +120 odds. Additionally, we are doing something we have only done three or four times in the last decade–combine a college game and NFL game into a parlay. We are number’s enthusiasts here on the PiRate ship, so sometimes we are left with orphan numbers needing to go to a matchmaking service. Combining college and pro football games into a hopeful match is rare for us, but there is no real reason not to do it. We just like to know at 1 AM on Sundays whether we won or not.

Enjoy these four parlays, but remember that these are for entertainment purposes only. We strongly urge you not to wager real money on these picks unless you have done your own research, and this feature merely verifies your own findings.

This Week’s Money Line Parlays

Date:
Sept 16-20

Odds:

+182
Must WinOpponent
Kansas St.Nevada
TroySouthern Miss.

Odds:+126.42
Must WinOpponent
Mississippi St.Memphis
DenverJacksonville

Odds:+140.08
Must WinOpponent
LA RamsIndianapolis
Kansas CityBaltimore

Odds:+127.91
Must WinOpponent
ArizonaMinnesota
SeattleTennessee

March 11, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 11, 2020

Date

3/11/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Dayton

Baylor

2

San Diego St.

Florida St.

Villanova

Creighton

3

Duke

Kentucky

Seton Hall

Michigan St.

4

Maryland

Louisville

Oregon

Wisconsin

5

Ohio St.

Auburn

Butler

BYU

6

West Virginia

Iowa

Penn St.

Virginia

7

Illinois

Colorado

Michigan

Arizona

8

Houston

Providence

LSU

Saint Mary’s

9

USC

Marquette

Oklahoma

Rutgers

10

Arizona St.

Florida

Indiana

Utah St.

11

E. Tennessee St.

Stanford

Xavier

Wichita St.

Texas Tech

12

Yale

Liberty

S. F. Austin

Richmond

UCLA

13

Vermont

Akron

North Texas

New Mexico St.

14

Bradley

Belmont

Hofstra

Colgate

15

UC-Irvine

N. Dakota St.

Little Rock

E. Washington

16

N. Kentucky

Winthrop

Siena

Prairie View

Robert Morris

N. C.  A&T

 

Last Four Byes:  Florida, Indiana, Stanford, and Xavier

Last Four IN: Wichita St., Texas Tech, Richmond, and UCLA

First Four OUT: North Carolina St., Cincinnati, Texas, and Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: Memphis, Northern Iowa, Purdue, and Saint Louis

 

Note:  Starting with today’s Bracketology and continuing for our final two Bracketology predictions (Friday and Sunday), our seed lines now reflect our beliefs that the NCAA Selection Committee will have some political beliefs that alter seed lines.  For instance, we moved Virginia up one seed strictly because they are the defending champions, and we believe some members on the Selection Committee will lobby on their behalf to be moved higher up.  

We are closely monitoring Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference.  Any blip that comes DU’s way might move the Flyers down to the 2-seed line if an elite team like Duke, Michigan St., or Kentucky romps through their conference tournament.

 

March 3, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 3, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Abilene Christian

Stephen F. Austin

-1.9

Akron

Ohio

10.0

Alabama

Vanderbilt

14.4

Ball St.

Central Michigan

8.0

Boston College

Syracuse

-4.5

Bucknell

Holy Cross

13.0

Buffalo

Miami (O)

8.3

Charleston Southern

Presbyterian

4.9

DePaul

Marquette

-3.7

Georgia Southern

Arkansas St.

8.4

Georgia St.

Little Rock

4.3

Hartford

Maine

7.6

Illinois Chicago

IUPUI

10.5

Iowa

Purdue

4.7

Iowa St.

West Virginia

-3.8

Kent St.

Bowling Green

4.8

Kentucky

Tennessee

8.8

Lehigh

Loyola (MD)

1.3

Liberty

NJIT

17.5

Lipscomb

Florida Gulf Coast

6.5

Louisiana

Coastal Carolina

-0.6

New Hampshire

UMass Lowell

4.8

North Carolina

Wake Forest

5.5

North Florida

Jacksonville

9.0

Northern Illinois

Toledo

0.8

Oakland

Cleveland St.

7.4

Oklahoma

Texas

6.1

Penn St.

Michigan St.

-0.4

Richmond

Davidson

4.4

Rutgers

Maryland

0.3

South Alabama

Texas St.

-1.5

South Carolina

Mississippi St.

2.0

South Carolina Upstate

High Point

5.2

South Florida

Cincinnati

-3.3

Stetson

North Alabama

1.7

Troy

UT Arlington

-6.8

UL Monroe

Appalachian St.

-2.1

UMBC

Stony Brook

-3.4

UNC Asheville

Campbell

0.6

VCU

Duquesne

6.8

Vermont

Albany

16.8

Western Michigan

Eastern Michigan

-0.8

Youngstown St.

Milwaukee

5.1

 

Key TV Games On Tuesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

SECN

South Carolina

Mississippi St.

7:00 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Maryland

7:00 PM

ESPN

Penn St.

Michigan St.

9:00 PM

ESPN

Kentucky

Tennessee

9:00 PM

BTN

Iowa

Purdue

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Oklahoma

Texas

 

Conference Tournament Schedule For Tuesday

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 3

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

1 Liberty (27-4)

8 NJIT (9-20)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Stetson (15-16)

5 North Alabama (13-16)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

3 Lipscomb (14-15)

6 Florida Gulf Coast (10-21)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

2 North Florida (20-11)

7 Jacksonville (14-17)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

 

Big South Tournament

1st Round

March 3

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

7 USC Upstate (12-19)

10 High Point (9-22)

7:00 PM

ESPN3

6 UNC-Asheville (14-15)

11 Campbell (15-15)

7:00 PM

ESPN3

8 Charleston Sou. (13-17)

9 Presbyterian (10-21)

7:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament

1st Round

March 3

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

4 Illinois Chicago (14-17)

9 IUPUI (7-24)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

5 Youngstown (17-14)

8 Milwaukee (12-18)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

6 Oakland (13-18)

7 Cleveland St. (11-20)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Patriot League Tournament

1st Round

March 3

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

7 Bucknell (12-19)

10 Holy Cross (3-28)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

8 Lehigh (10-20)

9 Loyola (MD) (15-16)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 2, 2020

Date

3/2/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Baylor

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

Seton Hall

3

Duke

Villanova

Louisville

Kentucky

4

Creighton

Oregon

Michigan St.

Penn St.

5

Auburn

Iowa

Ohio St.

Colorado

6

Butler

Wisconsin

BYU

West Virginia

7

Michigan

Arizona

Marquette

Illinois

8

Houston

LSU

Virginia

Texas Tech

9

Saint Mary’s

Florida

Arizona St.

Xavier

10

USC

Indiana

Oklahoma

Rutgers

11

Providence

Stanford

East Tennessee

Northern Iowa

12

Yale

Liberty

Wichita St.

Utah St.

Cincinnati

Rhode Island

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Hofstra

Belmont

Colgate

15

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Wright St.

South Dakota St.

16

Montana

Radford

Siena

Prairie View

St. Francis (PA)

N.C. A&T

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

UCLA

70

Mississippi St.

71

North Carolina St.

72

Richmond

73

Memphis

74

Texas

75

Arkansas

76

Alabama

 

Notes

(1.)  The last two at-large teams in the field, Cincinnati and Rhode Island, rate less than one-half point ahead of the first team out of the field, UCLA, and less then one point ahead of the next team out, Mississippi St.

(2.) Stephen F. Austin and Vermont actually rank ahead of the last two in and first two out, but we cannot put four mid-major teams in the 12-seed spot, and make the play-in games a battle of 13-seeds.

(3.) No political alterations have been made in this bracketology release.  These 68 + 8 teams listed here are 100% mechanically derived using our unique statistical criteria.  Had we applied some political bend to this report, some of the teams would have been moved on their seed lines, and UCLA would be moved into the field ahead of Rhode Island, because we believe the Selection Committee would be forced to take the Pac-12’s conference champion (assuming UCLA does win the Pac-12)

 

Coming Later Today:  Conference Tournament action begins tomorrow evening.  We will release the schedules and bracketing for the conference tournaments that are set to begin in the next few days.

 

 

 

February 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 21, 2020

Date

2/21/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Seton Hall

Creighton

Louisville

Villanova

4

Penn St.

West Virginia

Kentucky

Colorado

5

Oregon

Auburn

Butler

Iowa

6

Michigan St.

Arizona

Ohio St.

Marquette

7

Michigan

BYU

Houston

Wisconsin

8

Illinois

LSU

Texas Tech

Rutgers

9

Saint Mary’s

Xavier

Florida

Rhode Island

10

Arizona St.

Wichita St.

Oklahoma

Virginia

11

USC

Indiana

Northern Iowa

USC

12

Liberty

Yale

Utah St.

N. Carolina St.

Richmond

Cincinnati

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

South Dakota St.

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Montana

16

Winthrop

Austin Peay

Prairie View

Siena

St. Francis (PA)

Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

Georgetown

70

Purdue

71

Mississippi St.

72

Stanford

73

Providence

74

South Carolina

75

Arkansas

76

Alabama

77

UNC Greensboro

78

Memphis

The First Four

Opening Round in Dayton

12 Seed Game: Utah St. vs. Cincinnati

12 Seed Game: North Carolina St. vs. Richmond

16 Seed Game: Norfolk St. vs. Prairie View

16 Seed Game: Siena vs. St. Francis (PA)

February 10, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 10, 2020

Date

2/10/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

Maryland

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

West Virginia

Auburn

4

Villanova

Butler

Oregon

Penn St.

5

Kentucky

Michigan St.

Iowa

Creighton

6

LSU

Colorado

Marquette

Illinois

7

Arizona

Rutgers

Wisconsin

Michigan

8

Houston

Texas Tech

BYU

Ohio St.

9

USC

Purdue

Wichita St.

Arkansas

10

Saint Mary’s

Rhode Island

Oklahoma

Florida

11

Xavier

Indiana

Northern Iowa

Stanford

Virginia

12

E. Tennessee St.

Yale

S. F. Austin

Mississippi St.

VCU

13

Liberty

Vermont

New Mexico St.

North Texas

14

Bowling Green

Wright St.

Colgate

Hofstra

15

Winthrop

Little Rock

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Montana

Prairie View

Rider

Robert Morris

N. Carolina A&T

The Bubble Contenders

69

Arizona St.

70

Cincinnati

71

Memphis

72

Utah St.

73

Minnesota

74

N. Carolina St.

75

Richmond

76

Syracuse

77

Notre Dame

78

Furman

 

 

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