The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 11, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 11, 2020

Date

3/11/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Dayton

Baylor

2

San Diego St.

Florida St.

Villanova

Creighton

3

Duke

Kentucky

Seton Hall

Michigan St.

4

Maryland

Louisville

Oregon

Wisconsin

5

Ohio St.

Auburn

Butler

BYU

6

West Virginia

Iowa

Penn St.

Virginia

7

Illinois

Colorado

Michigan

Arizona

8

Houston

Providence

LSU

Saint Mary’s

9

USC

Marquette

Oklahoma

Rutgers

10

Arizona St.

Florida

Indiana

Utah St.

11

E. Tennessee St.

Stanford

Xavier

Wichita St.

Texas Tech

12

Yale

Liberty

S. F. Austin

Richmond

UCLA

13

Vermont

Akron

North Texas

New Mexico St.

14

Bradley

Belmont

Hofstra

Colgate

15

UC-Irvine

N. Dakota St.

Little Rock

E. Washington

16

N. Kentucky

Winthrop

Siena

Prairie View

Robert Morris

N. C.  A&T

 

Last Four Byes:  Florida, Indiana, Stanford, and Xavier

Last Four IN: Wichita St., Texas Tech, Richmond, and UCLA

First Four OUT: North Carolina St., Cincinnati, Texas, and Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: Memphis, Northern Iowa, Purdue, and Saint Louis

 

Note:  Starting with today’s Bracketology and continuing for our final two Bracketology predictions (Friday and Sunday), our seed lines now reflect our beliefs that the NCAA Selection Committee will have some political beliefs that alter seed lines.  For instance, we moved Virginia up one seed strictly because they are the defending champions, and we believe some members on the Selection Committee will lobby on their behalf to be moved higher up.  

We are closely monitoring Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference.  Any blip that comes DU’s way might move the Flyers down to the 2-seed line if an elite team like Duke, Michigan St., or Kentucky romps through their conference tournament.

 

March 3, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 3, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Abilene Christian

Stephen F. Austin

-1.9

Akron

Ohio

10.0

Alabama

Vanderbilt

14.4

Ball St.

Central Michigan

8.0

Boston College

Syracuse

-4.5

Bucknell

Holy Cross

13.0

Buffalo

Miami (O)

8.3

Charleston Southern

Presbyterian

4.9

DePaul

Marquette

-3.7

Georgia Southern

Arkansas St.

8.4

Georgia St.

Little Rock

4.3

Hartford

Maine

7.6

Illinois Chicago

IUPUI

10.5

Iowa

Purdue

4.7

Iowa St.

West Virginia

-3.8

Kent St.

Bowling Green

4.8

Kentucky

Tennessee

8.8

Lehigh

Loyola (MD)

1.3

Liberty

NJIT

17.5

Lipscomb

Florida Gulf Coast

6.5

Louisiana

Coastal Carolina

-0.6

New Hampshire

UMass Lowell

4.8

North Carolina

Wake Forest

5.5

North Florida

Jacksonville

9.0

Northern Illinois

Toledo

0.8

Oakland

Cleveland St.

7.4

Oklahoma

Texas

6.1

Penn St.

Michigan St.

-0.4

Richmond

Davidson

4.4

Rutgers

Maryland

0.3

South Alabama

Texas St.

-1.5

South Carolina

Mississippi St.

2.0

South Carolina Upstate

High Point

5.2

South Florida

Cincinnati

-3.3

Stetson

North Alabama

1.7

Troy

UT Arlington

-6.8

UL Monroe

Appalachian St.

-2.1

UMBC

Stony Brook

-3.4

UNC Asheville

Campbell

0.6

VCU

Duquesne

6.8

Vermont

Albany

16.8

Western Michigan

Eastern Michigan

-0.8

Youngstown St.

Milwaukee

5.1

 

Key TV Games On Tuesday

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

SECN

South Carolina

Mississippi St.

7:00 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Maryland

7:00 PM

ESPN

Penn St.

Michigan St.

9:00 PM

ESPN

Kentucky

Tennessee

9:00 PM

BTN

Iowa

Purdue

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Oklahoma

Texas

 

Conference Tournament Schedule For Tuesday

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 3

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

1 Liberty (27-4)

8 NJIT (9-20)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Stetson (15-16)

5 North Alabama (13-16)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

3 Lipscomb (14-15)

6 Florida Gulf Coast (10-21)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

2 North Florida (20-11)

7 Jacksonville (14-17)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

 

Big South Tournament

1st Round

March 3

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

7 USC Upstate (12-19)

10 High Point (9-22)

7:00 PM

ESPN3

6 UNC-Asheville (14-15)

11 Campbell (15-15)

7:00 PM

ESPN3

8 Charleston Sou. (13-17)

9 Presbyterian (10-21)

7:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament

1st Round

March 3

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

4 Illinois Chicago (14-17)

9 IUPUI (7-24)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

5 Youngstown (17-14)

8 Milwaukee (12-18)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

6 Oakland (13-18)

7 Cleveland St. (11-20)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Patriot League Tournament

1st Round

March 3

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

7 Bucknell (12-19)

10 Holy Cross (3-28)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

8 Lehigh (10-20)

9 Loyola (MD) (15-16)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 2, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 2, 2020

Date

3/2/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Baylor

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

Seton Hall

3

Duke

Villanova

Louisville

Kentucky

4

Creighton

Oregon

Michigan St.

Penn St.

5

Auburn

Iowa

Ohio St.

Colorado

6

Butler

Wisconsin

BYU

West Virginia

7

Michigan

Arizona

Marquette

Illinois

8

Houston

LSU

Virginia

Texas Tech

9

Saint Mary’s

Florida

Arizona St.

Xavier

10

USC

Indiana

Oklahoma

Rutgers

11

Providence

Stanford

East Tennessee

Northern Iowa

12

Yale

Liberty

Wichita St.

Utah St.

Cincinnati

Rhode Island

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Hofstra

Belmont

Colgate

15

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Wright St.

South Dakota St.

16

Montana

Radford

Siena

Prairie View

St. Francis (PA)

N.C. A&T

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

UCLA

70

Mississippi St.

71

North Carolina St.

72

Richmond

73

Memphis

74

Texas

75

Arkansas

76

Alabama

 

Notes

(1.)  The last two at-large teams in the field, Cincinnati and Rhode Island, rate less than one-half point ahead of the first team out of the field, UCLA, and less then one point ahead of the next team out, Mississippi St.

(2.) Stephen F. Austin and Vermont actually rank ahead of the last two in and first two out, but we cannot put four mid-major teams in the 12-seed spot, and make the play-in games a battle of 13-seeds.

(3.) No political alterations have been made in this bracketology release.  These 68 + 8 teams listed here are 100% mechanically derived using our unique statistical criteria.  Had we applied some political bend to this report, some of the teams would have been moved on their seed lines, and UCLA would be moved into the field ahead of Rhode Island, because we believe the Selection Committee would be forced to take the Pac-12’s conference champion (assuming UCLA does win the Pac-12)

 

Coming Later Today:  Conference Tournament action begins tomorrow evening.  We will release the schedules and bracketing for the conference tournaments that are set to begin in the next few days.

 

 

 

February 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 21, 2020

Date

2/21/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Seton Hall

Creighton

Louisville

Villanova

4

Penn St.

West Virginia

Kentucky

Colorado

5

Oregon

Auburn

Butler

Iowa

6

Michigan St.

Arizona

Ohio St.

Marquette

7

Michigan

BYU

Houston

Wisconsin

8

Illinois

LSU

Texas Tech

Rutgers

9

Saint Mary’s

Xavier

Florida

Rhode Island

10

Arizona St.

Wichita St.

Oklahoma

Virginia

11

USC

Indiana

Northern Iowa

USC

12

Liberty

Yale

Utah St.

N. Carolina St.

Richmond

Cincinnati

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

South Dakota St.

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Montana

16

Winthrop

Austin Peay

Prairie View

Siena

St. Francis (PA)

Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

Georgetown

70

Purdue

71

Mississippi St.

72

Stanford

73

Providence

74

South Carolina

75

Arkansas

76

Alabama

77

UNC Greensboro

78

Memphis

The First Four

Opening Round in Dayton

12 Seed Game: Utah St. vs. Cincinnati

12 Seed Game: North Carolina St. vs. Richmond

16 Seed Game: Norfolk St. vs. Prairie View

16 Seed Game: Siena vs. St. Francis (PA)

February 10, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 10, 2020

Date

2/10/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

Maryland

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

West Virginia

Auburn

4

Villanova

Butler

Oregon

Penn St.

5

Kentucky

Michigan St.

Iowa

Creighton

6

LSU

Colorado

Marquette

Illinois

7

Arizona

Rutgers

Wisconsin

Michigan

8

Houston

Texas Tech

BYU

Ohio St.

9

USC

Purdue

Wichita St.

Arkansas

10

Saint Mary’s

Rhode Island

Oklahoma

Florida

11

Xavier

Indiana

Northern Iowa

Stanford

Virginia

12

E. Tennessee St.

Yale

S. F. Austin

Mississippi St.

VCU

13

Liberty

Vermont

New Mexico St.

North Texas

14

Bowling Green

Wright St.

Colgate

Hofstra

15

Winthrop

Little Rock

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Montana

Prairie View

Rider

Robert Morris

N. Carolina A&T

The Bubble Contenders

69

Arizona St.

70

Cincinnati

71

Memphis

72

Utah St.

73

Minnesota

74

N. Carolina St.

75

Richmond

76

Syracuse

77

Notre Dame

78

Furman

 

 

February 7, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 7, 2020

Date

2/7/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

West Virginia

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

Maryland

Villanova

4

Butler

Auburn

Oregon

Michigan St.

5

Penn St.

Creighton

Kentucky

Iowa

6

LSU

Colorado

Arizona

Marquette

7

Illinois

Ohio St.

Rutgers

Houston

8

Texas Tech

Wisconsin

Michigan

Wichita St.

9

BYU

Arkansas

USC

Saint Mary’s

10

Indiana

Rhode Island

Florida

Stanford

11

Xavier

Memphis

Northern Iowa

Virginia

Purdue

12

East Tennessee St.

Yale

Liberty

VCU

Cincinnati

13

Stephen F. Austin

North Texas

Vermont

New Mexico St.

14

Wright St.

Colgate

Bowling Green

Little Rock

15

Hofstra

Winthrop

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Northern Colorado

Prairie View

Monmouth

Robert Morris

North Carolina A&T

The Bubble Contenders

69

Oklahoma

70

Mississippi St.

71

Arizona St.

72

Minnesota

73

Georgetown

74

Tulsa

75

Utah St.

76

Richmond

77

North Carolina St.

78

Providence

 

 

 

 

February 3, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 3, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:25 pm

Date

2/3/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

West Virginia

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

Maryland

Villanova

4

Michigan St.

Butler

Auburn

Oregon

5

Iowa

LSU

Creighton

Penn St.

6

Kentucky

Colorado

Illinois

Arizona

7

Marquette

Rutgers

Ohio St.

Houston

8

Wisconsin

Arkansas

Michigan

Wichita St.

9

Stanford

BYU

USC

Saint Mary’s

10

Indiana

Florida

Rhode Island

Oklahoma

11

Texas Tech

Memphis

Northern Iowa

VCU

Mississippi St.

12

East Tennessee St.

Yale

Liberty

Virginia

Xavier

13

Stephen F. Austin

Louisiana Tech

Vermont

New Mexico St.

14

Wright St.

UC-Irvine

Colgate

Bowling Green

15

Winthrop

Little Rock

Hofstra

Murray St.

16

South Dakota St.

Eastern Washington

Texas Southern

Monmouth

Robert Morris

North Carolina A&T

 

First Four Out

Purdue

Georgetown

Arizona St.

Tulsa

Next Four Out

Cincinnati

Utah St.

Minnesota

Alabama

 

 

 

March 5, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Butler

107.5

3.0

Xavier

106.2

4.3

Duke

124.7

2.5

Wake Forest

98.6

28.6

Michigan St.

120.5

3.0

Nebraska

109.7

13.8

Florida St.

114.4

3.0

Virginia Tech

115.7

1.7

Ohio

98.6

2.5

Buffalo

115.1

-14.0

Akron

103.2

2.0

Bowling Green

104.7

0.5

Eastern Michigan

100.9

2.5

Ball St.

103.1

0.3

Binghamton

89.3

2.0

Albany

93.0

-1.7

Hartford

99.0

2.5

Stony Brook

100.0

1.5

New Hampshire

84.8

2.5

Maine

88.4

-1.1

Texas A&M

105.8

3.0

South Carolina

105.4

3.4

Central Michigan

103.2

3.0

Northern Illinois

101.1

5.1

Toledo

108.5

3.0

Western Michigan

94.8

16.7

Saint Joseph’s

98.6

3.0

Rhode Island

100.9

0.7

Miami (O)

102.6

2.5

Kent St.

101.7

3.4

Hampton

98.6

2.5

Longwood

93.0

8.1

Charleston Southern

99.5

2.0

USC Upstate

87.5

14.0

Presbyterian

98.3

2.0

UNC Asheville

85.7

14.6

Lafayette

92.5

2.5

Holy Cross

95.6

-0.6

Boston U

96.1

2.5

Loyola (MD)

94.2

4.4

George Mason

101.4

3.0

Virginia Commonwealth

110.4

-6.0

Boston College

104.7

3.0

North Carolina

121.2

-13.5

Vermont

105.2

3.0

UMass Lowell

94.9

13.3

Minnesota

109.6

3.0

Purdue

117.6

-5.0

Abilene Christian

100.7

3.0

Stephen F Austin

91.6

12.1

Green Bay

97.4

3.0

Illinois Chicago

97.8

2.6

Wright St.

102.7

3.0

IUPUI

98.3

7.4

Miami (Fla)

106.3

3.0

Pittsburgh

104.8

4.5

Tennessee

118.7

3.0

Mississippi St.

113.6

8.1

Ole Miss

110.3

3.0

Kentucky

117.9

-4.6

Oklahoma

110.9

3.0

Kansas

115.1

-1.2

Alabama

108.3

3.0

Auburn

114.7

-3.4

Wichita St.

104.6

3.0

East Carolina

94.0

13.6

Colorado St.

99.5

3.0

Utah St.

110.9

-8.4

Air Force

95.9

2.5

Nevada

113.8

-15.4

 

Conference Tournament Updates

Atlantic Sun 

Quarterfinal Results

1 Lipscomb

86

8 Kennesaw St.

71

2 Liberty

72

7 Jacksonville

58

3 North Florida

76

6 North Alabama

66

5 NJIT

83

4 Florida GC

78

 

Semifinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Lipscomb (24-6)

5

NJIT (21-11)

2

Liberty (26-6)

3

North Florida (16-16)

 

Big South

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

Presbyterian (17-14)

10

UNC-Asheville (4-26)

6

Charleston Southern (15-14)

11

USC Upstate (6-25)

8

Hampton (14-15)

9

Longwood (15-16)

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 & Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1 (Tue)

Wright St. (19-12)

8

IUPUI (16-15)

4 (Tue)

Green Bay (16-15)

5

Illinois-Chicago (16-15)

3 (Wed)

Oakland (15-16)

6

Youngstown St. (12-19)

2 (Wed)

Northern Kentucky (23-8)

7

Detroit (11-19)

 

Patriot League

First Round–Tuesday, March 5

Seed

Home

Visitors

8

Boston U (14-17)

9

Loyola (MD) (11-20)

7

Lafayette (10-19)

10

Holy Cross (15-16)

Coming Later Today: Updated Bracketology

December 16, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs—Elite 8 Round

The quarterfinal round of the 2014-15 College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs has been run through the simulation program, and unlike the first round, there were some surprises.

If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:
https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 faced off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 received byes. In that opening round, #5 Baylor defeated #12 Kansas State 38-24; #6 Florida St. edged #11 Auburn 30-28; #7 Ole Miss beat #10 Georgia 31-28 in 2 ot; and #8 Mississippi St. trounced #9 Michigan St. 45-17.

Here is the schedule for today’s quarterfinal round games:
#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
#6 Florida State at #3 T C U
#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio State

Without further adieu, here are the results of those games.

#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
Final Score: Alabama 30 Mississippi St. 17

Stats
First Downs: AL 24 MS 16
Rushing: AL 41-209 MS 29-137
Passing: AL 226 MS 168
Passes: AL 20-34-1 MS 19-29-2
Play-Yds: AL 75-435 MS 58-305
After 1st Qtr: AL 6 MS 0
Half: AL 16 MS 7
After 3rd Qtr: AL 23 MS 10

 

#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
Final Score: Ole Miss 24 Oregon 22

Stats
First Downs: OM 19 OR 19
Rushing: OM 28-118 OR 41-189
Passing: OM 309 OR 231
Passes: OM 28-44-1 OR 24-45-1
Play-Yds: OM 72-427 OR 86-420
After 1st Qtr: OM 7 OR 6
Half: OM 21 OR 12
After 3rd Qtr: OM 21 OR 19

 

#6 Florida St. at #3 TCU
Final Score: TCU 42 Florida St. 24

Stats
First Downs: TC 26 FS 18
Rushing: TC 34-177 FS 30-99
Passing: TC 289 FS 308
Passes: TC 25-38-0 FS 26-49-3
Play-Yds: TC 72-466 FS 79-407
After 1st Qtr: TC 14 FS 0
Half: TC 28 FS 14
After 3rd Qtr: TC 42 FS 24

 

#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio St.
Final Score: Baylor 40 Ohio St. 38

Stats
First Downs BA 30 OS 23
Rushing: BA 28-109 OS 45-313
Passing: BA 484 OS 210
Passes: BA 38-51-0 OS 18-29-1
Play-Yds: BA 79-593 OS 74-523
After 1st Qtr: OS 17 BA 10
Half: OS 31 BA 19
After 3rd Qtr: OS 38 BA 26

The Final Four Is Now Set. Moving on to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl, we have #3 TCU and #7 Ole Miss. Facing off in the Sugar Bowl, #5 Baylor challenges top-seeded Alabama.
Return to this site on Friday, December 19 for the results of that simulation.

December 12, 2014

2014-15 Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs–1st Round

The opening round of the 2014-15 computer simulated college football playoffs has been played, and there were a couple of really close games along with two games that were not all that close.

If you have not read our entry from December 8 explaining how and why we perform this computer simulation, read here:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/2014-15-computer-simulated-playoffs/

In the first round, seeds 5-12 face off on the higher seeds’ home fields, while seeds 1-4 receive byes.

Here are the results of those four games.

#12 Kansas State at #5 Baylor
Final Score: Baylor 38 Kansas State 24

Stats

First Downs: BU 24, KS 19

Rushing: BU 34-188, KS 41-161

Passing: BU 372, KS 211

Passes: BU 25-38-1, KS 18-33-1

Play-Yds: BU 72-560, KS 74-372

After 1st qtr: Baylor 10-0

Half: Baylor 17-7

After 3rd qtr: Baylor 31-10

#11 Auburn at #6 Florida State
Final Score: Florida State 30 Auburn 28

Stats

First Downs: FS 23, AU 25

Rushing: FS: 29-106, AU 48-279

Passing: FS 402, AU 209

Passes: FS 34-46-2, AU 17-27-1

Play-Yds: FS 75-508, AU 75-488

After 1st qtr: Auburn 7-0

Half: Auburn 14-7

After 3rd qtr: Auburn 28-20

#10 Georgia at #7 Ole Miss
Final Score: Ole Miss 35 Georgia 31 2 ot

Stats

First Downs: OM 23, GA 20

Rushing: OM 34-152, GA 42-273

Passing: OM 236, GA 171

Passes: OM 21-37-1, GA 15-27-2

Play-Yds: OM 71-388, GA 69-444

After 1st qtr: Tied 7-7

Half: Georgia 14-10

After 3rd qtr: Georgia 14-13

After 4th qtr: Tied 21-21

After 1st OT: Tied 28-28

#9 Michigan State at #8 Mississippi State
Final Score: Mississippi State 45 Michigan St. 17

Stats

First Downs: MSS 32, MCH 16

Rushing: MSS 49-265, MCH 25-69

Passing: MSS 217, MCH 221

Passes: MSS 19-32-0, MCH 24-43-2

Play-Yds: MSS 81-482, MCH 68-290

After 1st qtr: Mississippi St. 14-0

Half: Mississippi St. 21-3

After 3rd qtr: Mississippi St. 42-10

The Quarterfinals are now set and will be simulated Tuesday, December 16, 2014. Here are the pairings for the Elite 8.

#8 Mississippi State at #1 Alabama
#7 Ole Miss at #2 Oregon
#6 Florida State at #3 T C U
#5 Baylor at #4 Ohio State

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