Every year brings some form of a unique look to the college basketball season, so saying that 2019 is unique isn’t really saying much. What is the uniqueness of 2019?
There is a greater than normal divide between the haves and have nots this season. At the top, there are a small number of elite teams, and if the season continues to play on as is, picking the Final Four and Elite 8 in the tournament might be easier than in past years. “Might” is a dangerous word. Might could mean a repeat of 2008, when the Final Four had three number one seeds and one number two seed. Might could also mean 2011 when Butler and Virginia Commonwealth both made the Final Four from the Mid-Major ranks.
Today, we will present you with the evidence and let you decide for yourself. The one definite conclusion is that February and March is going to be quite exciting for basketball fans. There will be more than 100 games worth watching that does not involve your favorite team.
This weekend, the Selection Committee will release its initial Top 16 teams (1-4 seeds), so we will break down every conference to tell you who we think is in line to be one of the great 68. Here’s a league by league look of all 32 conferences–the one-bid leagues and the power leagues.
America East
One Big League
Vermont (8-1/18-5) is the clear cut favorite here, as the Catamounts totally demolished number two Stony Brook (7-2/19-5) by 21 points on the Sea Wolves home floor. Last year’s Cinderella, Maryland-Baltimore Co. (6-3/14-10) has slowly and quietly moved up to third place, but this race is Vermont’s to lose. This league plays its conference tournament at the higher seeds, so finishing first is really important.
American Athletic
Four Bids
Houston (8-1/21-1) is enjoying its best season since the Cougars had Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler and company in the mid 1980’s, but make no mistake about it–this team is not anything like the Dunk-crazy Cougars of yore. Houston might be Sweet 16 good this year with a stingy defense, but their own shooting liabilities will keep the Cougars from advancing to the Elite 8, and they will b–e vulnerable in the Round of 32.
Cincinnati (8-1/19-3) is on par to match last year’s showing. The Bearcats were 30-4 entering The Big Dance last year. After taking care of a much weaker Georgia State team in the first game, they blew a 22-point lead to Nevada and failed to make the Sweet 16. It’s been seven years since Cinti last played in the Sweet 16, and 26 years since their last Elite 8 appearance. The Bearcats will be vulnerable to a strong Packline defense or tough zone, because they are not the best perimeter shooting team and not strong enough on the offensive glass to offset that weakness with extra opportunities.
Central Florida (6-2/16-4) and Temple (7-3/17-6) have NCAA Tournament-worthy resumes, because there are not a lot of other high-quality teams. Somebody has to fill out the at-large pool, so both schools should receive bids.
Memphis (5-4/13-9) is a bit inconsistent, but when the Tigers are clicking, they are good enough to sneak into the AAC Tournament finals.
Atlantic Coast
Eight or Nine Bids
Do nine ACC teams deserve bids this year? We say probably not, but as we said above, the Selection Committee has to find 36 at-large teams to fill the 68-team bracket, and there are not 36 teams better than the eighth or ninth best in the ACC.
Virginia (8-1/20-1) has 15 players with chips on their shoulders after becoming the first #1 seed to be embarrassed in the #1 vs. #16 game in the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers are clearly better this year than last year, when they went 17-1 in the league and cruised to the ACC Tournament championship. This team has improved offense, maybe slightly better defense, and more of a killer attitude. TV Watching Alert: UVA hosts Duke Saturday and plays at North Carolina Monday. If the Cavs are 10-1 on Tuesday morning, they have to be considered the overall favorite to go all the way this year.
Duke (8-1/20-2) also has the tools to win the National Championship. After re-watching the loss in Hawaii to Gonzaga in November, we came away believing that Duke would beat the Zags nine times out of ten, and if there is a rematch, the Blue Devils might win by double digits five times out of ten. The loss at home to Syracuse is the one that concerns us. Duke shot a crazy 9 of 43 from the three-point line in that home game, and while the outside shooting has been much better since, we have to believe that Duke could be vulnerable against a team that can force them to beat them from outside.
North Carolina (8-1/18-4) is one of those teams that could force Duke to beat them from outside. The Tar Heels have been a consistent power team under Roy Williams. This year’s team has a +10.4 rebound margin and defends both inside the paint and on the perimeter much better than the average team. Carolina’s liability is taking care of the ball, but it hasn’t been the reason they lost four times. In the four losses, it was poor shooting that doomed the Tar Heels. UNC and Duke do not meet until February 20, and then they play again to close out the regular season.
Louisville (8-2/17-6), Virginia Tech (7-3/18-4), and Syracuse (7-3/16-7) are basically safe bets to make the tournament, and all three bring distinct advantages that could help them make it to the Sweet 16. Of the three, Louisville has the best chance to sneak into the Elite 8.
How many other teams get invited depend on how many teams win automatic bids from the power conferences that were not going to receive at-large bids. With no upsets, then the ACC could go nine deep, and currently those three last bids would belong to Florida State (5-4/17-5), North Carolina State (4-6/16-7) and Clemson (4-5/14-8) in that order. We believe that an 8-10 record this year will put an ACC team on the Bubble.
Atlantic Sun
One Bid (outside chance at two)
Lipscomb (10-0/19-4) is on the precipice of entering the Top 25, which of course does not mean anything with the Selection Committee, as AP ranking bears no weight on the process. However, the Bisons currently rank #31 in the NET Ratings with two Quadrant 1 wins, and that not only bears weight, it is the number one criterion the Committee will use. Should Lipscomb win out all the way to the Atlantic Sun title game and then lose a close one there, it will be difficult for the Committee to explain why they gave the Bisons the shaft at 27-5 with a top 30 NET Rating.
Liberty (9-1/20-5) is the clear number two team in this league, but the Flames lost at home to Lipscomb by 20 points. NJIT (6-3/18-6) has a 20-point loss to Liberty and 18-point loss to Lipscomb, so the hierarchy here is plain and simple. Lipscomb will host all conference tournament games they play if they finish number one in the league, and the Bisons are clearly better than last year’s NCAA Tournament team that gave North Carolina fits for 30 minutes in the opening round.
Atlantic 10
One or Two Bids
Davidson (8-1/17-5) and Virginia Commonwealth (7-2/16-6) are both winning with defense this year. Both teams could be like gnats for higher-seeded first round opponents, and if this league gets two bids, the at-large team might be forced to a First Four game in Dayton. As of today, the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology says that chances are better than 50-50 that only one team gets into the field, but if the Wildcats and Rams continue to win and run away from the rest of the league, both could move up high enough in the NET Ratings to get in. Neither team’s current NETs are good enough today to get into the field as an at-large team.
Big East
Three Bids but Keep an Eye on a Possible Fourth
Why do we say “keep an eye on a possible fourth” bid in this league? There is a bit of parity here, and we could easily see a team from outside the top three seeds winning the conference tournament title this year.
Villanova (10-0/19-4) is starting to look like they could make a run back to the Final Four this year with a great coach in Jay Wright and a roster that can take care of the ball and drain the three. Still, this team is not dominant like the two recent national champs.
Marquette (8-2/19-4) has one of the most exciting players in the nation in Markus Howard, but the Golden Eagles cannot create extra scoring opportunities in a large enough volume to win more than a game in the Big Dance.
St. John’s (5-5/17-6) owns two wins over Marquette plus a close loss at Villanova. The Red Storm might need to upset ‘Nova at home a week from Sunday to move into safe at-large bid territory. Having the conference tourney near home at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn might help them get to the finals of the tournament.
So, which team might spoil the party in Brooklyn? Take a look at Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown Hoyas (5-5/15-8). GU is not tournament worthy, and the big story here might be the former Knick great possibly bringing his alma mater to Madison Square Garden in the semifinals of the NIT rather than earn a dance party invite. However, Georgetown can score points in a hurry and in spurts, two things that help teams in tournament play. Most of their losses have been really close and just a tad better play could turn those types of games into wins. So, the Hoyas are our Dark Horse team to watch out for in the Big East Tournament.
Big Sky
One Bid
This is not a strong year in the near west. Montana (8-2/15-6) is not as strong as last year’s conference championship team that challenged Michigan for a half in the Big Dance. The Grizzlies can score points and light up the scoreboard, but they are likely to surrender 85 to 95 points to a power conference team in the opening round of the tournament. Montana’s scoring success has more to do with the remainder of this league’s inability to play defense, and if any other Big Sky team wins the automatic bid, they will quickly exit in the opening round.
Northern Colorado and Weber St. have identical 8-3/14-8 records. Weber State has one quality win, which was a shootout 113-103 victory over BYU, where they went off in the second half and scored 66 points. That type of explosion could be scary in the conference tournament, but against even a middle of the pack Big Ten or ACC team, it isn’t going to happen.
Big South
One Bid
This league can consider avoiding a 16-seed that has to play in Dayton as the highest goal it can achieve this year, because the top teams in the Big South are not good enough to challenge against a #1 or #2 seed this year. The automatic bid winner is likely looking at a 20-point or worse loss in the opening round of the Big Dance.
Radford (8-1/16-7) is the only team that would for sure could move up to a 15-seed. The Highlanders are just good enough to make the first half of the Round of 64 game look competitive, but that’s about all. If any other team wins the lone bid and avoids Dayton, it should be a lopsided loss, maybe 30-40 points lopsided.
Big Ten
Eight or Nine Bids
This is another case of having to take teams that don’t really belong in the field, but somebody has to fill the bottom of the at-large pool. There is a chance that a 12-conference loss (Big Ten playing 20 conference games this year) team might still be in the hunt for an at-large bid if said team wins a couple of times in the Big Ten Tournament.
All is not well with the top of this league at the present time, so this could figure to be a disappointing showing from the league. Michigan (10-2/21-2) has a great defense, but the Wolverines’ offense has disappeared in recent games, especially in two double-digit losses to Wisconsin and Iowa. The Maize and Blue have a tough closing schedule, so we’ll get a chance to see if a great defense can compensate a mediocre offense in crunch time. The Badgers come to Ann Arbor Saturday.
Purdue (9-2/16-6) was blown off the floor at Michigan State a month ago, but since then the Boilermakers have reeled off seven consecutive conference wins. Past PU teams lacked the ability to dominate on the glass and force turnovers, but Matt Painter has been slowly building up a team that more resembles North Carolina than the former Boilermaker teams that failed time and time again in the NCAA Tournament against teams like North Carolina. This Boilermaker squad is the most complete since the Lee Rose-led team made the Final Four in 1980.
Michigan State (9-3/18-5) is fading into the sunset due to the loss of Joshua Langford to a season-ending injury. The Spartans were 11-2 in games he played, and they are still 7-3 since he went down, but they are missing his outside shooting touch. Additionally, although this team can still bang it on the boards, they have ceded rebounding supremacy to the guys in West Lafayette, and they cannot take care of the rock against pressure defense. Illinois forced 24 turnovers with 12 steals in their monumental upset of Sparty. Michigan State could be vulnerable in an opening round game against somebody that can play pressure defense.
Wisconsin (9-3/17-6) is one of those teams that win ugly. They play excellent possession basketball and slowly pull ahead where a six to eight point lead feels like a 15-point lead. However, the Badgers have rebounding issues, and few teams ever advance past the Sweet 16 without being able to make hay on the glass.
Maryland (9-4/18-6) is a shoo-in to receive a bid, but the Terrapins allow opposing offenses to feel comfortable. What we mean by this is that they don’t gamble with defensive pressure (they don’t have the ability to do so), and the opponent doesn’t have to worry about getting beat with fast break points off turnovers. The Terps will not be able to have any spurts against quality opposition, and like Wisconsin, have the wrong liability for Big Dance success.
Iowa (6-5/17-5) has the ability to score points in spurts, but the Hawkeyes don’t have the overall defense to do much damage in the NCAA Tournament.
Three other teams are in contention for at-large bids but not really worthy of making a typical field in other years. Minnesota (6-6/16-7) would be a lower bubble team in many years from the past, and Coach Richard Pitino is on thin ice in the Cities, but the Gophers would be in the field if it were announced today. UM’s final eight regular season games are as difficult as anybody in the league, and they could be looking at a 2-6 finish for an 8-12 conference record. Pitino could be fired, and the team could make the Big Dance at the same time.
Ohio State (4-6/14-7) and Indiana (4-7/13-9) are the other two teams in contention for a Dance invitation. The Buckeyes cannot shoot the ball well enough to win consistently, especially when they are not all that strong on the boards, and they don’t force a lot of turnovers. Indiana can rebound a little better than the Buckeyes, but there are games where the Hoosiers act like they are trying to shoot a medicine ball into the hoop.
Big 12
Seven or Eight Bids
Any year that doesn’t find Kansas (6-4/17-6) at the top of this league has to be considered odd. The Jayhawks last failed to finish first in the Big 12 regular season in 2004. KU sits in 4th place today 1 1/2 games behind their arch rival, and they could be looking at a final league record of 11-7. Still, KU is going to make the NCAA Tournament for the 29th consecutive season. And truth be known, Coach Bill Self’s squad just might advance farther into this year’s tournament than any other conference rival.
After starting 0-2 in the league, Kansas State (7-2/17-5) leads the league at the halfway point of the conference schedule. The Wildcats are one dimensional–they win with defense and little offense. They can force turnovers, but not enough to compensate for their lack of rebounding strength, and thus we don’t see KSU going very far in the 2019 Dance.
Iowa State (7-3/18-5) narrowly projects as the true best team in the Big 12 at this point in time, but our criteria for picking teams to advance deep into the tournament does not look good for the Cyclones, as they have rebounding issues. Their three league losses came by a total of eight points, and rebounding issues hurt them in all three games.
Baylor (6-3/15-7) has a decent offense and can dominate on the glass against teams that do not rebound the ball expertly. However, the Bears lack the defensive intensity to win consistently, and Coach Scott Drew’s teams have underachieved in the NCAA Tournament the last four times there, including losses to Yale and Georgia State.
Texas Tech (6-4/18-5) has lost four of their last seven games and looks to be treading water ever since their conference foes determined that the Red Raiders cannot beat them from the perimeter. The better defensive power teams will clog the lane and continue to exploit this weakness, so TTU won’t make it to the Elite 8 this year and will be lucky to sneak into the Sweet 16.
Texas (5-5/13-10) looks iffy with their overall record, but the Longhorns are much better than their record looks this year. UT owns wins over North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Baylor. Their NET Rating is #38, and includes four Quadrant 1 wins and no bad losses. If the Longhorns go 9-9 in the league, they will get into the field unless their Big 12 Tournament ends in a quarterfinal blowout loss.
TCU (4-5/16-6) and Oklahoma (3-7/15-8) don’t really belong in the NCAA Tournament, but they are both likely to get bids unless they totally tank the rest of the way. A 7-11 record will likely mean having to play the opening day in the Big 12 Tournament, but this will help these teams get an extra win that could put them in the Field.
Big West
One Bid
There are two teams with enough quality talent and coaching to scare favored teams in the Big Dance, but only one will make the Field (unless there is a major shock in the conference tournament).
UC-Irvine (8-1/20-5) and UC Santa Barbara (6-2/17-5) are in a class by themselves compared to the rest of the league, and these two teams would produce an excellent conference championship game for viewers.
Irvine plays tough defense and handles the boards well, but the Anteaters don’t force turnovers, which has hurt them in their losses. Road wins at Texas A&M and Saint Mary’s proves UCI can compete in an opening round game.
UCSB is similar to UCI in every department, maybe a little better on the boards and in forcing turnovers, but a little weaker offensively. The Gauchos don’t own an impressive non-conference win, but they lost at Washington by four points.
Colonial Athletic
One Bid
You probably haven’t followed Hofstra (9-1/19-4) this year if you don’t follow the CAA. The Pride won 16 games in a row before falling at number two Northeastern (7-3/13-9) last Saturday. Hofstra is a solid club with no real weakness, but they lack the overall muscle and quickness to beat bigger more physical teams. In other words, they have no real weakness against Mid Major and Low Major teams. If the Pride win out until the conference championship game, and lose to finish at 29-5, they will still be an NIT team.
Conference USA
One Bid
North Texas (7-3/19-4) was looking like the class of the league this year until Old Dominion (8-3/18-6) came from the middle of the pack to the top with seven wins in eight games. ODU won at Syracuse, so former Virginia star and coach Jeff Jones has a team capable of shocking a higher seed team if they get to the Dance.
Getting to the Dance won’t be that easy, because this league has some talented teams that have not put it all together this year. About five other teams could peak at the right time and hoist the trophy in Frisco, Texas. We think that as many as 10 different teams could win the automatic bid. Keep an eye on Marshall (6-4/13-10) and Florida International (5-5/14-9).
Horizon
One Bid
Until this past week, this looked like a cake walk for Northern Kentucky (8-3/18-6), but the Norse went on the road and lost back-to-back games against middle of the pack teams. Now, this race looks wide open.
Wright State (7-4/13-11) and Oakland (7-4/11-13) are just a game back of first now, but IUPUI (6-5/14-10) and Illinois-Chicago (6-5/12-12) are the two teams that topped NKU.
Ivy
One Bid
It is still just a one bid league, but the Ivy League has been improving a little bit per season in the last few years. This could be the year where the champion gets a 14-seed and scares a 3-seed if not upsets them.
This should be a great weekend in Ivy League play as number one Princeton (4-0/12-5) visits number two Yale (3-1/13-4) on Friday night. Harvard (3-1/10-7) hosts a pair of home games, and by Saturday night, there could be a three-way tie at the top at 5-1 in the league. The Ivy League Tournament has moved away from the Palestra in Philadelphia this year, and it just so happens to be at Yale, where the Bulldogs are undefeated this season.
Metro Atlantic
One Bid
The MAAC will be in tight competition with a host of other low major leagues for one of the two 16-seeds that doesn’t include a trip to Dayton. For any team in this league to move up to a 15-seed, it will take at least two other low major leagues to end up with surprise tournament champions with sub .500 records.
Rider (7-3/12-10) leads a field of six others that are not separated by much. Monmouth (7-4/8-16), Quinnipiac (6-4/11-10), Siena (6-4/11-12), Canisius (6-4/9-13), and Iona (5-5/7-14) could play a round robin tournament and all finish 3-3. Manhattan (5-6/7-16) was just 2-16 a couple weeks ago, so the Jaspers are actually the hottest team in this league at the present time.
Mid-American
One or Two bids
This is one of those leagues that teams like Oklahoma, Indiana, and North Carolina State will be paying close attention to come conference tournament time. Buffalo (7-2/19-3) is almost a lock to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team if they do not win the automatic bid. The Bulls are ranked 23rd in the NET ratings thanks to wins at West Virginia and Syracuse, but they are not the number one team in MAC standings or even in their own East Division.
Bowling Green (8-1/16-6) leads the Bulls by a game in the East thanks to a win over Buffalo in Bowling Green. The Falcons close the regular season at Buffalo, and this could decide the overall top seed in the conference tournament.
On the other side of the ledger, Toledo (7-3/19-4) has won seven of their last eight games. The Rockets play at Bowling Green Saturday.
Mideastern Athletic
One Bid
This league perpetually places its champion in the First Four in Dayton, but in our opinion, the MEAC teams are usually underrated. In Norfolk State (8-0/13-10), the MEAC has another team capable of winning big in Dayton and then showing up with just enough clout to scare a 1-seed that may be overlooking the Spartans.
If Norfolk State wins the conference tournament, they will send a team to Dayton capable of shooting the other team out of the gym with a rain of three-pointers. Derrick Jamerson, Jr. is in range the second he enters the arena, and he’s been the Steph Curry of the MEAC in conference play. When you can hit 60% from behind the arc, you are more dangerous than Wilt Chamberlain inside the arc. Teammate Nic Thomas tops 40% at the three-point line in conference play. This is the MEAC’s best chance to knock off a heavily favored team since Hampton upset Iowa State in 2001. The league needs some help though. We believe Norfolk State has a chance against a couple of potential 2-seeds, but not any of the projected 1-seeds. Of course, the Spartans have to get there first.
Missouri Valley
One Bid
This probably won’t be the year the Missouri Valley continues to shock the rest of the world by sending a team deep into the tournament like Loyola did last year or Wichita State did when the Shockers were part of this league. The best the MVC can hope for this year is one victory.
Loyola (8-3/15-9) isn’t sneaking up on anybody this year. The Ramblers are still a smart and patient team that works the ball for high percentage shots, but their defense is far off last year’s efficiency. At best, Loyola is a slight favorite to win Arch Madness in St. Louis.
Drake (6-5/17-7) is in a three-way tie for third, but the Bulldogs are a disappointment this year with talent good enough to run away with the league crown. They could be dangerous in St. Louis if they play a little smarter and don’t gift the ball to their opposition like they have done in recent weeks.
Illinois State (7-4/14-10) is playing a little above their projected potential, but the Redbirds do not figure to win three games in three days in St. Louis.
Missouri State (6-5/12-12) is the dangerous team from just off the pace and the one we believe will be ready to challenge Loyola at Arch Madness. The Bears have improved by more than 10 points per game since Christmas, and Coach Dana Ford has a team built in the Gregg Marshall mode. They will force turnovers that lead to cheap baskets, and their style of play could make Loyola hurry their offense just enough to throw them off. Look at what MSU did to Loyola two weeks ago: The Bears won 70-35 with a 40-11 second half skunking. Loyola got eight rebounds for the entire game and committed 14 turnovers.
Mountain West
Two or Three Bids
This is a league to monitor closely as the regular season winds down. Might the Selection Committee go three deep into the MWC? Are they certain to take two of the three deserving teams if Nevada wins the conference tournament?
Nevada (9-1/22-1) is a Final Four contender, because in Eric Musselman, they have the best overall coach in college basketball. He’s worth an extra 6 to 8 points in a tournament game just by his ability to have his team prepared to stop the opponent and a strong eye for making in-game adjustments. On paper, the Wolfpack does not have enough talent to go past the Sweet 16, but Musselman is like Brad Stevens. He can lead Nevada to close wins at crunch time and move the team into the Elite 8 and even Final Four.
Utah State (8-2/18-5) is talented enough to be the MWC champion in most years. The Aggies deserve an at-large bid if they cannot win the tournament. Craig Smith built a great program at South Dakota, becoming the equal of South Dakota State, and in his first year at USU, he has taken a good team and made it better. The may need to upset Nevada when the Wolfpack comes to town on March 2nd, but even if USU loses and finishes at least 14-4 in the league and advances to the MWC Championship Game, they should receive a ticket to the ball. Their current NET rating is 33.
Fresno State (7-3/16-6) has a win at Utah State and followed up that big win by playing a close game in a loss to Nevada. The Bulldogs will not get in as an at-large team, but they are the team most likely to knock off the top two teams in back-to-back days and pull off the upset.
Northeast
One Bid
We estimate that this league has about a 95% chance of making a visit to Dayton for the First Four, and quite frankly, it doesn’t look all that favorable for the champion to leave Dayton still in the tournament.
Robert Morris (7-3/12-11), Fairleigh-Dickinson (6-4/11-11), St. Francis (PA) (6-4/10-11), Sacred Heart (6-4/10-13), St. Francis (Bklyn) (5-5/13-10), Wagner (5-5/10-11), Bryant (5-5/8-13), and Long Island (4-6/10-12) should at the very least provide a balanced, excellent conference tournament, but this league plays all its tournament games at the higher seed’s home floor, so the parity will not be appreciated.
Ohio Valley
One Bid
While this is a definite one-bid league, there are four really good teams that could take that bid, and all four must be considered dangerous in an opening round game. If one team gets hot enough to keep winning and enters the Dance with just one more loss than they have now, that team is likely to receive a 12-seed, where they just might be a tad better than their 5-seed opponent. Here’s a look at those four tough teams.
Belmont (8-2/17-4) has been in this situation many times before. The Bruins won at UCLA earlier this year, and they swept rival Lipscomb from the Atlantic Sun. Belmont has won in the past at North Carolina, at Marquette, and lost at Duke by one point, the second one-point loss to Duke, as a shot to beat the Blue Devils in a past NCAA Tournament game just barely missed a decade ago. No Power Conference team will be glad if they face Belmont in a 5-12-seed game.
Murray State (8-2/17-4) has one of the top five players in college basketball in Ja Morant. Morant might be the second or third pick in the 2019 NBA draft. He averages better than 24 points per game and an amazing 10.3 assists per game. He may be the best overall player in this league since Fly Williams in the early 1970’s. Murray doesn’t have a big signature win this season, but they lost close games at Alabama and Auburn. In the past, this Racers program has won as a #13 seed over Vanderbilt, as a #6 seed over Colorado State, and as a #14 seed over North Carolina State in the NCAA Tournament.
Austin Peay (8-2/16-7) is the surprise team of the OVC this year. The Governors have won 14 of 17 after a slow start. APSU can steal the ball and take it to the hoop, and they get some hot shooting streaks, but they are probably one good rebounder short of being a threat to win an NCAA Tournament game.
Jacksonville State (8-2/16-7) plays a different style of ball compared to the other three co-leaders. Their style of play is defense first, second, and third, and it took some time for this team to gel. After an 0-3 start against three mediocre teams, the Gamecocks began playing better team defense, and the results began to show. JSU swept Belmont, and they have the easiest finishing schedule of the four co-leaders. Two years ago, the Gamecocks played admirably in a tournament loss to Louisville. Coach Ray Harper took Western Kentucky to two past NCAA Tournaments putting a big scare into top-seeded Kansas in 2013.
Pac-12
One or Two Bids
Say it a’int so! Could the Pac-12 really be just a one bid league? The short answer is yes, if Washington wins the automatic bid. The logical answer is that the elite will take care of their own, and even if there isn’t a deserving team, the Selection Committee will find some way to have a spokesperson spin the stats to come up with some invalid reason to include a second Pac-12 team.
Washington (9-0/18-4) owns an 11-game winning streak. Seven of their nine league wins have been by double-digits, and none have been close enough to lose in the final minutes. Their four non-conference losses came to teams that figure to make the NCAA Tournament, so the Huskies will get a bid even if they do not win the Pac-12 Tournament. If they were to win out to finish 30-4, they still may do no better than earning a 5-seed. They can shoot the ball accurately, but they are not as strong defensively.
Arizona State (6-3/15-6) is the best of the rest in the NET Ratings. The Sun Devils come in at #61, which is actually too low to expect an at-large bid with so many potential at-large teams ahead of them. However, because the Committee is likely to grasp at straws to keep a Power Conference from becoming a one-bid league, we believe ASU’s win over Kansas in December with wins over Mississippi State and Utah State will outweigh bad losses to Vanderbilt, Princeton, Utah, and Stanford.
Oregon State (6-3/14-7) has been a mild surprise this year and could be a dark horse candidate to steal the automatic bid. On the other side of the equation, bad years by USC (6-4/13-10), Arizona (5-4/14-8), UCLA (5-5/12-11), and Oregon (5-5/14-9) have dragged this league down. One of these underachievers could still get hot and win three games in three days in Vegas.
Patriot
One Bid
A few weeks ago, it looked like there might be a changing of the guard in this league, but as January gave way to February, a familiar name was back on top of the league standings. Bucknell (9-2/15-8) has won eight of nine games to pass Lehigh (8-3/15-7) for first place in a league where the higher seed team hosts each tournament game. Bucknell has won seven of the last eight Patriot League regular season titles. This does not look like a year where the Bison will pull off another upset tournament win.
Southeastern
Seven or Eight Bids
This is an interesting year in the SEC. Tennessee (9-0/21-1) is number one in the nation with a resume that screams Final Four. The Vols have one of the best Field Goal percentage differentials in a long time at +12%. At 83.2%, the all-time SEC conference games record for team free throw percentage is in site, and the Big Orange are among the national leaders in all games. UT is +6 in rebounding margin and +3 in turnover margin, and they have two potential All-Americans on their roster in Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield. And, they can go eight deep with no drop in production.
So, what is the one Tennessee weakness? They aren’t Kentucky (8-1/19-3). The Wildcats weren’t really Kentucky until the second week of January, but since then, they are more like the Fabulous Five of Adolph Rupp in the late 1940’s. The Wildcats’ defense has been second to none since Coach John Calipari did his annual Svengali mind-control on his players to get them on the same page. Kentucky opponents in SEC play are scoring less than 60 points per game in 68 possessions per game, while the Cats are scoring 75 points per game. UK and UT must still face off twice. The first game comes in Lexington on February 16, and the second one in Knoxville on March 2.
LSU (8-1/18-4) could sneak past both top teams with the schedule working in the Tigers’ favor. The Bayou Bengals have to play at Kentucky, but they catch the Cats just before Tennessee comes to Rupp Arena. Then, they host Tennessee just after the Vols play at Kentucky. It isn’t likely, but LSU could sneak into first place if they can knock off Alabama in Tuscaloosa and Florida in Gainesville. They should finish no lower than 14-4 in the league and 15-3 is possible. The Tigers are one of three teams with Final 4 talent and coaching in this league.
Auburn (5-4/16-6) would love their record in most years, but in 2019, this is a disappointment. The Tigers can score points quickly and shoot teams out of the gym, but on some nights they give up points just as easily and get shot out of the gym. They resort to a lot of fouling when their pressure defense doesn’t shut down their opponent. Auburn could be looking at 10-8 or 11-7, both good enough this year to get them in the NCAA Tournament, but we don’t see their stay to be long.
Six teams are still competing for a probable three bids, four at most. South Carolina (6-3/11-11) has the best conference record of the half-dozen but the least chance to make the field. The Gamecocks will have to go 6-3 in the second half of the season with a road win against Mississippi State and a home win over Alabama or Ole Miss to have any chance at all.
Alabama (5-4/14-8) beat Kentucky and has four winnable conference road games remaining on their schedule. The Tide got better in February and March under Coach Avery Johnson last year, and if the repeat that performance, they will get a bid to the Dance for the second consecutive year.
Two teams, Mississippi State (4-5/16-6) and Florida (4-5/12-10) have failed to live up to expectations, although one or both could still make the NCAA Tournament. Miss. State has one real signature win over Cincinnati with multiple close losses to other NCAA Tournament contenders. The Bulldogs host Kentucky Saturday followed by Alabama. If they win both games, then watch out for this team. The schedule gets easier for the rest of the month before road games against Auburn and Tennessee back-to-back could be trouble. The Maroons need another five conference wins down the stretch plus one more in the SEC Tournament in Nashville.
Florida has played a tough schedule, but the Gators are on the verge of playing themselves out of the field after losing five of their last eight games. The Gators’ offense is not fluid, and it leads to too many poor choices. The Gators don’t have a lot of muscle inside, so bad shot choices lead to defensive rebounds for the opponents. Coach Michael White could find himself on the hot seat in Alligator Alley if UF finished under .500 in league play and misses a dancing opportunity.
Two teams, Ole Miss (5-4/15-7) and Arkansas (5-4/14-8) have overachieved an unexpectedly find themselves in contention for a bid to the Dance. Ole Miss was picked to finish 13th or 14th by most SEC media and possibly suffer a 20-loss season. First year coach Kermit Davis, Jr. has been a big plus in Oxford. His teams have competed much the same way that Davis’s Middle Tennessee teams won in CUSA: hustle points.
Arkansas coach Mike Anderson has one 4-star player on his roster, but he’s done an incredible job getting the Razorbacks to use his system and play above their talent level. A January malaise ended with a win over LSU followed by a come-from-behind win over lowly Vanderbilt. If Arky continues to improve, 11-7 is still possible, while 10-8 is more probable, but 10-8 is likely to get the Razorbacks a bid.
Southern
One Bid
Just like the Ohio Valley Conference, the Socon probably deserves an extra bid this year, but it won’t be in the mail. Only the team that cuts down the nets in Asheville, North Carolina, will see its name called on Selection Sunday.
Just like the OVC, there are four strong teams in the Socon that could win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. The interesting thing about this league is that you have four distinct styles employed by the coaches of this contending quartet.
Wofford (11-0/19-4) coach Mike Young took the Terriers to four NCAA Tournaments in a six-year period, and his current squad is the best since his 2009 team narrowly lost to heavily favored Wisconsin in the first round. This team knows how to take smart shots and rarely gets out of character. They control the boards by limiting the number of defensive rebound opportunities for their opponents, and they take care of the ball. To beat the Terriers, a team has to limit mistakes and play their best defense.
UNC-Greensboro (9-1/20-3) played close games at LSU and Kentucky and even led the Wildcats in the second half. They might be the best of the bunch against high-level competition, but Wofford sure has their number. Earlier this year, the Terriers barked their way to a 29-point victory.
East Tennessee State (9-2/19-5) can present opponents with tough game preparation issues on short notice. The Buccaneers have won 11 out of their last 12 games and are hitting their stride at the right time. They host Wofford tonight in a crucial game.
Furman (7-4/18-5) began the season looking like the team to beat in this league, as the Palladins were 12-0 and ranked #23 in the AP poll. That included a win over Villanova. Since then, Fuman is just 6-5 and trending downward.
Southland
One Bid
This league has been trending downward since Brad Underwood left Stephen F. Austin. Instead of having a potential Sweet 16 team, the SLC has a definite #16-seed this year.
Sam Houston State (10-0/15-8) can blow this race apart with a win at second place Abilene Christian (8-2/19-4) on Saturday. SHSU must play more of its remaining games against the upper half of the league on the road, and if ACU beats the Bearkats Saturday, the Wildcats might overtake them down the stretch.
New Orleans (8-3/13-9) host Sam Houston in a few weeks, and the Privateers own a four-game winning streak. UNO is still in the regular season conference race.
Summit
One Bid
As usual, South Dakota State (9-1/19-6) is the team to beat this year, but the Jackrabbits won’t walk over the opposition in this league. SDSU knows how to score points, and they are a threat to top 90 every night. They even gave Nevada a close game, before losing by four points. The Jackrabbits probably had a better team last year when they lost to Ohio State in the first round of the tournament, and they are now 0-5 in the Big Dance.
Omaha (7-2/13-9) has won 10 of 12 games. The Mavericks host SDSU next weekend, and the conference race could become a two or three-team dash to the finish. No matter which team wins the regular season, the conference tournament remains in Sioux Falls, which always helps SDSU.
One of these years, Purdue-Fort Wayne is going to put together a run in early March and earn their first NCAA Tournament bid. The Mastodons have always had a potent offense under Coach Jon Coffman, and in the past they have two wins over Big Brother Indiana, but the Mastodons have tended to wear down in the last weeks of the season. They tabbed the one league loss on SDSU, and it wasn’t even close, as PFW won 104-88.
Sun Belt
One Bid
This is a probable six-team race for the lone automatic bid. No team is dominant over the other five among the top half-dozen, but current number one Georgia State (7-3/16-7) has a veteran coach in Ron Hunter that has taken this team and IUPUI to the NCAA Tournament in the past. The Panthers swept the regular season and conference tournament last year, but this team has a serious rebounding liability. We don’t see Ga State winning three consecutive games in New Orleans.
Texas State (6-3/17-5) split with Georgia State and appeared to be in command in the league before losing back-to-back games to Georgia Southern and Texas-Arlington. This throws the league up for grabs.
The other four contenders are: Coastal Carolina (6-3/12-9), Texas-Arlington (6-3/10-12), Georgia Southern (6-4/14-9), and Louisiana-Monroe (5-5/12-10). CCU is the hottest of the bunch with five consecutive wins, but the Chanticleers also have the toughest remaining schedule.
Southwest Athletic
One Bid
Gone are the days when this league’s top team was probably one of the 50 best in the nation. There were seasons in which Alcorn State beat SEC teams and took a top-seeded LSU team down to the wire in the NCAA tournament after beating South Alabama in the opening round.
The legendary Ben Jobe guided Southern to a big upset over Georgia Tech in the NCAA Tournament. There were years where not only did the SWAC tournament champion avoid a trip to Dayton, they avoided the 16-seed line altogether.
Times have been tough on this league in recent years. Member teams have to be vagabonds and play most of November and December on the road, as their schools collect checks from big time programs just to keep going.
Thus, no team begins conference play with a decent record. Some teams in the past have competed for the regular season title after losing all their non-conference games.
The SWAC is a little improved this season, and a couple of teams have reached .500 after beginning deep in the hole. Prairie View (9-0/11-11) actually has a 10-game winning streak going. The Panthers have been taking care of the ball and forcing a lot of turnovers that lead to easy baskets, and they give the league its best chance to advance past Dayton this year. One big plus is this team is chock full of upperclassmen that go 10-deep in juniors and seniors.
Texas Southern (6-3/11-11) has enjoyed the most success in this league in recent years, and the Tigers are the leading contender to PVAM. TSU hosts Prairie View on Saturday, and the winner will have a plus .500 overall record.
Grambling (5-4/11-11) is the other team at .500. The Tigers have the best defense in the league, and both of the top two must still come to the Assembly Center in February.
Western Athletic
One Bid
New Mexico State (7-1/18-4) is just one place below Arizona State in the NET Ratings, but the Sun Devils are at-large contenders, while the Aggies are not. Backroom politics will keep an at-large WAC team out of the tournament while giving the Pac-12 team every opportunity to crash the Dance.
Two wins over New Mexico and a close loss to Kansas will not be enough on the Aggie resume if NMSU does not grab the automatic bid. NMSU has the muscle to compete on the boards against a power conference opponent, and they would be a tough out against a third or fourth best team from the Big Ten or SEC.
One of these years, Grand Canyon (7-1/14-7) will break through and win the WAC Tournament. The Antelopes lost by just two points at NMSU and have a rematch with the Aggies at home on Saturday. They play tough defense, and in recent games, their offense is starting to look just as tough, as they have outscored opponents by an average of 80-57 in their last four games.
Don’t eliminate Cal State Bakersfield (6-2/15-7) from consideration. The Roadrunners can pound the glass and force turnovers with a plus defense. Their problem is that they don’t shoot the ball all that well. However, if they were to get hot at the right time, they have the defense to carry them to the WAC Championship Game.
Because there are three good teams in the WAC, the race for the top seed will be important, as the number two and number three teams will then likely meet in the semifinals of the conference tournament.
West Coast
One or Two Bids
This league will become an automatic two bid league if somebody other than the one power pulls off the conference tournament upset. If said superpower wins the automatic bid, then this league could get the shaft on Selection Sunday.
That superpower is Gonzaga (8-0/21-2). The Bulldogs own the WCC, and their ownership may be invincible this year. Their average scoring margin in conference play is 29.1 points per game. They host San Francisco tonight and then Saint Mary’s on Saturday, and they still have to play at Saint Mary’s, but the Zags might win all three games by a combined 60 points.
San Francisco (5-3/17-5) has fallen to #50 in the NET Ratings, while Saint Mary’s (5-3/14-9) is #47. For either team to receive serious at-large consideration, they have to beat Gonzaga.
BYU (6-3/14-10) is the actual current number two team in the league, and the Cougars don’t even figure in the NIT Bracketology at the present time.
