The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 30, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–Friday, December 30, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:41 am
4West VirginiaDukeWisconsinIndiana
5ArkansasMiami (Fla.)Ohio St.Xavier
6MarylandAuburnVirginia TechMarquette
7North CarolinaSan Diego St.MIssouriIllinois
8New MexicoMississippi St.KentuckyTCU
9MemphisTexas TechNorth Carolina St.Kansas St.
10CreightonPenn St.Arizona St.Iowa St.
11Michigan St.UABOklahomaFlorida AtlanticSaint Mary’sRutgers
12CharlestonKent St.IonaDayton
13Indiana St.YaleUC-IrvineOral Roberts
14James MadisonUMass LowellLibertyFurman
15Grand CanyonYoungstown St.Montana St.Colgate
16Northwestern St.LongwoodGramblingSIU-EdwardsvilleNorfolk St.Wagner

Last 4 Byes: Penn St., Arizona St., Iowa St., Michigan St.,

Last 4 In: Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, Saint Mary’s, Rutgers

#16-Seeds in First Four: Grambling, SIUE, Norfolk St., Wagner

Top Dozen Waiting In The Wings (alphabetically)

Boise St.
Oklahoma St.
St. John’s
Utah St.

December 27, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:30 am
3ArkansasGonzagaWest VirginiaTexas
4VirginiaDukeOhio St.Baylor
5WisconsinVirginia TechIndianaKentucky
7XavierNorth CarolinaSan Diego St.Mississippi St.
8MiamiMarquetteNew MexicoIowa St.
9Saint Mary’sArizona St.Penn St.Michigan St.
10IowaTexas TechTCUKansas St.
11RutgersFlorida AtlanticCreightonMissouriOklahomaUtah
12Sam HoustonKent St.YaleCharleston
13Oral RobertsIonaBradleyJames Madison
15SIU-EdwardsvillePurdue-Ft. WayneMontana St.Furman
16LongwoodGramblingColgateNorfolk St.Nicholls St.Wagner

Last Four In: Creighton, Missouri, Oklahoma, Utah

Last Four Byes: Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas St., Rutgers

First 4, 16-seeds: Colgate, Norfolk St., Nicholls St., Wagner

First Four Out: Utah St., St. John’s, Northwestern, Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out: UNLV, UAB, North Carolina St., LSU

March 13, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, March 13, 2022

Sunday’s Conference Tournaments
American Athletic Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Fort Worth, TX
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Atlantic 10 Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Washington, D.C.
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Big Ten Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Southeastern Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
TennesseeTexas A&M7.8

Final Bracketology coming this afternoon after SEC Championship Game Concludes

After last night’s late games on the West Coast concluded, our Bracketology hopefuls shrunk to 70 teams. We still have to eliminate two teams from our field of 68 and then do a final seeding after the conclusion of the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The outcome of that game will most definitely affect the field, possibly changing who plays an opening round “play-in” game in Dayton.

March 12, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–Saturday Morning, the day before Selection Sunday

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:27 am
3VillanovaTennesseeTexas TechWisconsin
6Saint Mary’sLSUAlabamaColorado St.
7Michigan St.Boise St.Ohio St.USC
8San Diego St.TCUMurray St.Creighton
9MemphisNorth CarolinaIowa St.Seton Hall
10MarquetteDavidsonLoyola (Chi.)San Francisco
11IndianaMiami (Fla.)Notre DameMichigan
12South Dakota St.UABSMUWyomingRutgersVirginia Tech
13VermontChattanoogaNew Mexico St.Princeton
14Kent St.Montana St.LongwoodColgate
15Long Beach St.MonmouthDelawareJacksonville St.
16Wright St.BryantNorfolk St.Georgia St.Texas SouthernTexas A&M-CC

Teams That Can Steal a Bid (Alphabetical Order)

Saint Louis
Texas A&M

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, March 12, 2022

Saturday’s Conference Tournaments
America East Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher Seed at Home
VermontMaryland Baltimore Co.14.3
American Athletic Conference–Semifinals
Fort Worth, TX
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Atlantic 10 Conference–Semifinals
Washington, D.C.
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
DavidsonSaint Louis0.2
Atlantic Coast Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
DukeVirginia Tech5.6
Big 12 Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Kansas City
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
KansasTexas Tech1.1
Big East Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
New York
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Big Sky Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Boise, ID
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Montana St.Northern Colorado3.4
Big Ten Conference–Semifinals
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
PurdueMichigan St.5.4
Big West Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Henderson, NV
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Long Beach St.Cal St. Fullerton-0.5
Frisco, TX
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
UABLouisiana Tech4.8
Ivy League–Semifinals
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Atlantic City, NJ
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Saint Peter’sMonmouth1.8
Mid-American Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Kent St.Akron0.4
Mideastern Athletic Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Norfolk, VA
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Norfolk St.Coppin St.8.1
Mountain West Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Las Vegas
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Boise St.San Diego St.-1.4
Pac-12 Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Las Vegas
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Southeastern Conference–Semifinals
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
ArkansasTexas A&M5.3
Southland Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Katy, TX
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Southeast LouisianaTexas A&M-CC-1.6
Southwestern Athletic Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
Texas SouthernAlcorn St.4.5
Western Athletic Conference–CHAMPIONSHIP
Las Vegas
Higher SeedLower SeedSpread
New Mexico St.Abilene Christian3.1

Dance Tickets Punched
1Murray St.Ohio Valley27-2
2LongwoodBig South26-6
3Loyola (Chi.)Missouri Valley25-7
5Georgia St.Sun Belt18-10
6Jacksonville St.Atlantic Sun21-10
8DelawareColonial Athletic22-12
9Wright St.Horizon21-13
10South Dakota St.Summit30-4
11GonzagaWest Coast26-3

Hunkered Down In The Hull

The PiRates have had their tea and bickies and swabbed the deck. It’s time to head down to the hull and hunker down with typical PiRate ship tools. We have no torpedos and no swords. Our weapons are power ratings, strengths of schedule, quad ratings, and strengths of record. We will be carefully perusing the field to see which team to pillage and which team to let pass into the Dancing waters.

The Florida Gators have been scuttled and sunk to the bottom where they have met the sandy silt known as NIT. Texas A&M just might pass through if the Aggies can fire more shots at the SS Razorback today then they take on.

With a late Winter storm plunging most of the Eastern half of the nation back into January-like weather, this is a good day to stay indoors and watch teams qualify for the Big Dance. We will be looking at a lot of Bubble teams as well as teams that can greatly alter our Bracketology.

Our final Bracketology prediction will be published here tomorrow afternoon. Depending on the games to be played after 1 PM EDT (yes, remember it will be D and not S tomorrow), we may have to have two different brackets prepared and waiting to use one over the other depending on the outcome of the final games. Fortunately, almost all the Cinderella teams that could only get into the Field of 68 by qualifying automatically lost yesterday. Colorado, Penn State, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, and Central Florida helped teams like Wake Forest, BYU, and Xavier feel a little better when they bowed out of their tournaments. Indiana probably worked their way into the field by topping Michigan and Illinois, so the Hoosiers can win or lose today and tomorrow and not change the teams getting bids.

There are still some potential bid-stealers where the top seed could lose and still get an at-large bid, but if the top seed wins, the conference in question will not receive the extra bid. In the Atlantic 10, Davidson is now a lock to make the field without winning their tournament. If Saint Louis wins today, or if today’s Richmond-Dayton winner beats Davidson tomorrow, the A-10 will get one extra team in the field, and one bubble will burst. In the American Athletic, should Tulane upset Houston today and then beat the winner of today’s SMU-Memphis game, the AAC will receive an extra bid, and another bubble will burst. If Tulane is put out of the tournament today, then the only game that will affect the 68 teams tomorrow would be the A-10 Championship Game. That game should end between 2:45 and 3:00 PM EDT, so our final projections should publish soon after the conclusion of that game and possibly earlier if this game is a blowout.

January 28, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

4IllinoisTennesseeTexas TechMichigan St.
5LSUProvidenceOhio St.Connecticut
7XavierIowa St.IowaColorado St.
8Wake ForestIndianaBYUMiami (Fla.)
9Saint Mary’sLoyola (Chi.)Boise St.Florida St.
10ArkansasNorth CarolinaOregonDavidson
11CreightonMurray St.TCUOklahoma
12UABIonaSan FranciscoWyomingSan Diego St.Notre Dame
13ChattanoogaToledoVermontSouth Dakota St.
14WagnerPrincetonSeattleJacksonville St.
15Cleveland St.Appalachian St.Cal St. FullertonWeber St.
16LongwoodColgateNorfolk St.SouthernUNC-WilmingtonNew Orleans

Best Of The Rest

69Mississippi St.
72West Virginia
73Seton Hall
74Texas A&M


I try to mimic what the Selection Committee Does each year. I weigh several factors, including the NET Rankings, Strength of Record, a few select computer ratings (not my own, since as far as I know, only one former Committee member has ever acknowledged knowledge of the PiRate Ratings), wins against Quadrant 1 opponents and Quadrant 2 opponents versus losses against Quadrant 4 opponents, results away from home, and to a lesser extent conference record, and even though they will never admit it, there is a political aspect involved. The eighth best team in the Atlantic Coast or Big Ten Conference will beat out the second best team in the Missouri Valley Conference nine out of ten times when their resumes are similar.

Every year, the selection criteria claimed to be the most important by the Committee changes a little to fit what I believe are the desired results. For instance, in one year, in order to include a team like Syracuse at 19-14 over a team like Murray State at 29-4 that lost in the OVC Tournament to Belmont, the Committee referred to the fact that Syracuse went 2-8 against Quad 1 teams on the road, while Murray State went 1-1, and thus Syracuse’s schedule was so much stronger.

Then the next year, Kansas State gets in at 19-14 over Wofford at 30-4 that lost in the SoCon Tournament Championship to UNC-Greensboro; the Committee ignores the fact that Wofford went 5-2 against Quadrant 1 opponents while Kansas State went 3-9. Now, they state that Kansas State’s overall schedule strength was number 11, while Wofford’s was number 103. Never mind that West Virginia swept Kansas State during the regular season and then knocked the Mountaineers out of the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals, while Wofford beat WVU by eight points in Hawaii in November.

One additional factor used in today’s Bracketology was conference record to date. If a team is three games under .500 in their conference at the halfway point of their conference season, such as Seton Hall at 3-6, the rest of their resume is strong enough to be considered, but if The Hall finishes 7-11 or worse in the Big East, I don’t see them getting into the field with so many strong teams in conferences that normally receive a maximum of two teams getting into the Field.

Mid-Major Spoilers

This year, there are more Mid-Major teams in the running for at-large bids, and if a couple are upset in their conference’s tournament, they are still likely to be considered. Let’s take a look.

Atlantic 10: Davidson will most likely receive a bid if they don’t earn the league’s automatic berth. A team like Dayton, Saint Louis, or VCU is capable of winning the automatic bid, and personally, I think the Billekens are the team to beat in March in DC.

Conference USA: Andy Kennedy has done a fantastic job at UAB, but if the Blazers don’t win the CUSA Tournament at the Cowboys’ practice facility in Frisco, Texas, they have a decent shot at getting in as an at-large team. Louisiana Tech and North Texas must be considered co-favorites to win the conference tournament, especially with Frisco being almost a home game for the Mean Green from nearby Denton. Keep an eye on both Charlotte and Middle Tennessee, as the 49ers and Blue Raiders are rounding into shape.

Metro Atlantic: Rick Pitino knows how to win, even if he may cut corners at times. His Iona Gaels are definitely a Bubble team if they are 29-5 but runners up in the MAAC Tournament to Monmouth or Saint Peter’s.

Mid-American: Both Toledo and Ohio U are on the cusp of being at-large worthy. If the Rockets meet the Bobcats in the MACtion Title Game, the loser has a small chance to earn a spot.

Missouri Valley: Loyola of Chicago is a near lock to get into the Dance even if they fall short in Arch Madness. The MVC has multiple teams with enough talent and excellent coaching to win in Saint Louis. Missouri State, Drake, Northern Iowa, and Bradley are teams to watch.

Mountain West: It is likely that at least three and possibly four MWC teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday. Colorado State and Boise State are near locks at this point, while San Diego State and Wyoming are strong candidates. Also, Utah State is recovering from a rough patch, but even at 2-5 in the league, the Aggies are talented enough to win the conference tournament if totally healthy.

Ohio Valley: Murray State might be deserving of a single-digit seed if the Racers win out from here. Even if they lose a game to Morehead State or Belmont, and they lose in the finals of their conference tournament, the Racers could still get in, just like Belmont a couple years ago.

West Coast: The WCC is used to getting Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s into the Field in the same year, but this year four teams have Tournament-worthy resumes. BYU and San Francisco also have decent shots to get into the field.

January 21, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

4DukeTexas TechConnecticutXavier
5WisconsinTexasUCLAOhio St.
6Loyola (Chi.)AlabamaIowaIowa St.
7Michigan St.USCIndianaSeton Hall
9BYUSan Diego St.North CarolinaMiami (Fla.)
10Colorado St.DavidsonCreightonWake Forest
11Saint Mary’sBoise St.West VirginiaOregonFlorida St.
12Murray St.UABChattanoogaTCUSan Francisco
14WagnerGrand CanyonSouth Dakota St.Oakland
15LibertyTexas St.UC-IrvinePrinceton
16NavyMontana St.LongwoodNorfolk St.Texas A&M-CCTexas Southern

Last Four Byes: Wake Forest, Saint Mary’s, Boise St., West Virginia

Last Four In: Oregon, Florida St., TCU, San Francisco

First Four Out: Wyoming, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, Michigan

Next Four Out: Belmont, Arkansas, Dayton, Fresno St.

January 10, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

4TennesseeKentuckyTexasMichigan St.
5UCLAXavierConnecticutTexas Tech
6AlabamaOhio St.WisconsinSeton Hall
7Loyola (Chi.)IowaBYUIndiana
8Iowa St.North CarolinaOklahomaVirginia Tech
9West VirginiaSan Diego St.San FranciscoProvidence
10Saint Mary’sMississippi St.Washington St.Marquette
11Colorado St.MemphisFloridaBoise St.Wake ForestMichigan
13OhioIonaTowsonNew Mexico St.
15VermontSouth Dakota St.LibertyNavy
16Texas St.Weber St.Gardner-WebbNicholls St.Texas SouthernHoward

Last Four Byes: Washington St., Marquette, Colorado St., Memphis

Last Four In: Florida, Boise St., Wake Forest, Michigan

First Four Out: Clemson, Wyoming, VCU, TCU

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Murray St., Fresno St., Creighton

January 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology–January 7, 2022

4IllinoisMichigan St.USCKentucky
5AlabamaUCLAConnecticutIowa St.
6WisconsinXavierOhio St.Texas Tech
7Loyola (Chi.)Seton HallBYUIndiana
8IowaColorado St.W. VirginiaN. Carolina
9OklahomaVa.TechSan FranciscoMississippi St.
10ProvidenceTCUFloridaWake Forest
11Saint Mary’sMichiganSan Diego St.MemphisTexas A&MClemson
14WagnerSouth Dakota St.NavyOakland
15Grand CanyonUC-IrvineLibertyPrinceton
16LouisianaWeber St.Nicholls St.Gardner-WebbTexas SouthernHoward

First Four Out

Florida St.

Next Four Out

Boise St.
Washington St.

Process: The PiRate Ratings use a combination of NET Rankings, Computer Rankings, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Wins, The Eye-Test, and unfortunately Politics to attempt to mimic what the NCAA Selection Committee does leading up to Selection Sunday.

January 3, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:27 am
4TexasIllinoisMichigan St.USC
5Ohio St.AlabamaUCLAConnecticut
6Texas TechLoyola (Chi.)IowaXavier
7Iowa St.ProvidenceSeton HallColorado St.
8Virginia TechBYUNorth CarolinaFlorida
9MichiganWisconsinSan FranciscoMississippi St.
10OklahomaSaint Mary’sIndianaClemson
11West VirginiaMemphisNorthwesternMinnesotaArkansasFlorida St.
13IonaNew Mexico St.OhioTowson
14WagnerOaklandNavySouth Dakota St.
16Georgia St.Nicholls St.Southern UtahTexas SouthernCampbellHoward

First Four Out

San Diego St.
Central Florida

Next Four Out

Wake Forest
Boise St.
Washington St.
Texas A&M
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