PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 30, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Brown	Cornell	4.5
Purdue	Ohio St.	9.2
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-5.9
Wright St.	Purdue Fort Wayne	4.4
Northern Kentucky	Cleveland St.	-1.4
George Washington	Fordham	-1.5
Providence	Marquette	1.1
Wisconsin	Minnesota	9.2
Fairleigh Dickinson	Central Connecticut	1.3
Bryant	Long Island	5.1
Iona	Saint Peter’s	11.1
Morgan St.	Delaware St.	14.1
St. Francis (NY)	Wagner	-11.8
Drake	Loyola (Chi.)	-3.2
Bradley	Indiana St.	7.9
Massachusetts	George Mason	8.7
Siena	Quinnipiac	0.4
Manhattan	Marist	-2.0
Monmouth	Niagara	8.5
Rider	Canisius	1.9
Boston College	Pittsburgh	4.0
Southern Illinois	Valparaiso	5.8
Bucknell	Loyola (MD)	-3.9
McNeese St.	New Orleans	0.7
Washington St.	Colorado	5.8

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 23, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Providence	Butler	10.5
Purdue	Northwestern	13.2
Bryant	St. Francis (NY)	10.3
Niagara	Rider	8.9
Canisius	Saint Peter’s	-2.4
Marquette	Xavier	-0.9
Mount St. Mary’s	Central Connecticut	8.4
Purdue Fort Wayne	Youngstown St.	1.9
Evansville	Illinois St.	-2.2
Marist	Fairfield	3.7
Monmouth	Manhattan	11.1
Quinnipiac	Iona	-8.9
Saint Louis	Massachusetts	9.0
California	Arizona	-14.9
Tulsa	Memphis	-5.7
Merrimack	Wagner	-8.4
Cleveland St.	Robert Morris	10.9
Indiana	Michigan	3.7
UTSA	UTEP	-6.8
St. Francis (PA)	Sacred Heart	1.9
Fairleigh Dickinson	Long Island	-6.7
Oregon	Washington	10.8

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Army	American	8.9
UNC Asheville	North Carolina A&T	5.6
Radford	Hampton	7.1
Florida	Mississippi St.	4.7
Alabama	LSU	0.7
Rhode Island	La Salle	14.9
Saint Joseph’s	George Washington	10.4
Quinnipiac	Rider	6.2
Loyola (MD)	Boston U	-0.8
Bucknell	Colgate	-11.6
Creighton	St. John’s	4.0
Navy	Lehigh	14.6
Gardner-Webb	USC Upstate	10.9
Charleston Southern	High Point	-7.0
Longwood	Campbell	4.0
Louisville	Boston College	7.4
NC St.	Virginia Tech	-4.1
Georgia Tech	Wake Forest	-3.4
NJIT	Vermont	-12.0
Binghamton	Stony Brook	-1.8
Hartford	New Hampshire	-2.9
UMass Lowell	Maine	13.4
Maryland-Baltimore Co.	Albany	5.5
Valparaiso	Northern Iowa	-4.5
Furman	Western Carolina	15.0
East Tennessee St.	Mercer	4.0
Wofford	The Citadel	12.6
Villanova	Marquette	11.1
Oklahoma St.	TCU	5.7
Southern Illinois	Indiana St.	4.8
Missouri St.	Illinois St.	11.7
Drake	Bradley	5.5
Texas A&M	Kentucky	-8.0
Rutgers	Iowa	-5.3
Auburn	Georgia	23.9
DePaul	Xavier	-5.9
Pittsburgh	Virginia	-3.7
Wyoming	San Jose St.	18.2
Colorado St.	New Mexico	15.8

Coming later today: Our fourth annual Top 20 Coaches Ready For Prime Time. You will see some familiar names, but you are going to see some names you may not know, including one coach from the Division 2 ranks.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Home	Visitors	Spread
Canisius	Quinnipiac	-0.5
Fairfield	Iona	-5.3
Stanford	USC	-6.6
Towson	Hofstra	3.8
Tennessee	South Carolina	14.3
Penn St.	Rutgers	4.1
Baylor	Texas Tech	10.1
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-8.6
Marquette	DePaul	7.0
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	10.2
North Alabama	Eastern Kentucky	-2.3
Liberty	North Florida	13.2
Jacksonville St.	Lipscomb	11.9
Jacksonville	Stetson	5.7
Bellarmine	Central Arkansas	12.1
La Salle	St. Bonaventure	-10.7
VCU	George Washington	17.7
Dayton	Saint Louis	1.3
Davidson	Massachusetts	10.7
James Madison	Northeastern	3.9
Drexel	Delaware	2.5
Akron	Ball St.	10.3
Ohio	Bowling Green	8.0
Kent St.	Northern Illinois	13.0
Western Michigan	Buffalo	-15.0
Miami (O)	Toledo	-2.2
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	6.7
Stephen F. Austin	UT Rio Grande Valley	10.9
Kansas	Iowa St.	12.0
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	6.8
Northern Iowa	Indiana St.	8.5
Texas	Oklahoma	5.4
Nebraska	Illinois	-14.1
Texas A&M	Mississippi	4.7
Alabama	Auburn	-0.1
Creighton	Providence	1.2
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	2.6
Loyola (Chi.)	Valparaiso	17.2
Fresno St.	San Jose St.	16.1
UNLV	New Mexico	7.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 26, 2020

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Abilene Christian	Sam Houston St.	3.8
Air Force	New Mexico	-1.4
American	Lafayette	2.6
Arkansas	Tennessee	5.5
Army	Holy Cross	11.7
Boston College	Notre Dame	-5.1
Bucknell	Colgate	-4.8
California Baptist	Utah Valley	7.7
Citadel	Mercer	-6.0
Connecticut	Central Florida	8.3
Florida	LSU	3.4
Fordham	Rhode Island	-12.8
George Washington	Richmond	-8.7
Houston Baptist	Nicholls	-8.9
Illinois St.	Bradley	-3.8
Lamar	Incarnate Word	12.9
Lehigh	Boston U	-6.0
Long Beach St.	Cal St. Northridge	0.7
Louisiana	Arkansas St.	2.0
Maine	New Hampshire	-2.8
Manhattan	Marist	6.3
Marquette	Georgetown	7.2
Massachusetts	VCU	-6.8
McNeese	Southeast Louisiana	10.0
Minnesota	Maryland	-0.2
Navy	Loyola (MD)	3.4
New Orleans	Texas A&M-CC	2.0
Northern Iowa	Evansville	18.4
Omaha	North Dakota	4.6
Penn St.	Rutgers	6.3
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	0.4
Purdue Fort Wayne	Denver	6.2
Quinnipiac	Siena	-2.8
Saint Louis	Saint Joseph’s	14.3
South Carolina	Georgia	5.8
South Florida	East Carolina	8.6
Southern Illinois	Indiana St.	0.4
St. Bonaventure	Duquesne	1.4
Stanford	Utah	9.6
Stephen F. Austin	Northwestern St.	15.6
Stony Brook	Hartford	9.7
UMass Lowell	Albany	1.9
UMBC	Binghamton	10.0
UNC Greensboro	Furman	4.0
UNLV	Boise St.	0.5
Vanderbilt	Missouri	-1.5
Villanova	St. John’s	10.4
Virginia Tech	Virginia	-0.3
VMI	Chattanooga	-2.9
Western Carolina	Samford	11.4
Wofford	East Tennessee St.	-4.0

 

Key TV Games on Wednesday Night

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	BTN	Penn St.	Rutgers
7:00 PM	ESPN+	UNC Greensboro	Furman
8:30 PM	FS1	Marquette	Georgetown
8:30 PM	SECN	Arkansas	Tennessee
9:00 PM	BTN	Minnesota	Maryland
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Florida	LSU
10:00 PM	Pac12	Stanford	Utah

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 18, 2020

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Bryant	Merrimack	1.3
Buffalo	Ball St.	1.7
Central Connecticut	Fairleigh Dickinson	-6.8
Eastern Michigan	Kent St.	-2.5
Florida	Arkansas	3.9
Florida St.	Pittsburgh	12.1
Long Island	St. Francis (NY)	6.9
LSU	Kentucky	2.2
Marquette	Creighton	3.4
Maryland	Northwestern	16.6
Massachusetts	Saint Louis	-3.7
Missouri	Ole Miss	2.3
New Mexico	Nevada	-1.7
Ohio	Central Michigan	2.5
Oklahoma	Baylor	-3.1
Penn St.	Illinois	7.1
Saint Joseph’s	Davidson	-11.3
St. Francis (PA)	Robert Morris	5.0
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	12.2
UNLV	Colorado St.	0.1
VCU	Dayton	-3.1
Wagner	Mount St. Mary’s	-2.2
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	11.5
Western Michigan	Akron	-9.2
Wisconsin	Purdue	2.6

Tuesday’s Top TV Games

(Where both teams are contending for a conference championship or NCAA Tournament at-large bid.)

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
6:30 PM	FS1	Penn St.	Illinois
7:00 PM	ESPNU	Florida	Arkansas
7:00 PM	ESPN	Wisconsin	Purdue
8:30 PM	CBSSN	VCU	Dayton
8:30 PM	FS1	Marquette	Creighton
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Oklahoma	Baylor
9:00 PM	ESPN	LSU	Kentucky

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 7, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Tuesday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Maryland	Ohio St.	1.7
Louisville	Miami (Fla.)	13.5
Boston College	Virginia	-6.6
Rutgers	Penn St.	0.6
South Carolina	Florida	-4.8
Missouri	Tennessee	3.6
Marquette	Providence	8.6
Temple	Houston	-0.6
Texas Tech	Baylor	0.9
Creighton	Villanova	2.2
Georgia	Kentucky	-2.8
Nebraska	Iowa	-8.8
Syracuse	Virginia Tech	3.7
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	-2.5
Kansas St.	TCU	-0.1
Air Force	Utah St.	-8.2
New Mexico	Fresno St.	5.9

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 3, 2019

Games Scheduled for:			Sunday
Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Charlotte	91.7	2.5	UTEP	93.3	0.9
Connecticut	105.5	3.0	South Florida	103.4	5.1
DePaul	103.9	2.5	St. John’s	108.6	-2.2
Florida Int’l.	96.9	2.5	Louisiana Tech	101.7	-2.3
Georgia Tech	103.9	3.0	Boston College	104.8	2.1
Illinois	106.9	2.0	Northwestern	106.7	2.2
Louisiana	100.0	2.5	Appalachian St.	97.7	4.8
Louisville	113.5	3.0	Notre Dame	105.9	10.6
Marist	95.5	2.5	Rider	98.6	-0.6
Marquette	113.5	3.0	Creighton	109.5	7.0
Maryland	113.4	3.0	Michgan	117.8	-1.4
Niagara	92.2	2.5	Siena	95.3	-0.6
North Texas	101.6	3.0	Marshall	98.7	5.9
Oregon St.	106.2	3.0	Arizona St.	108.0	1.2
Quinnipiac	96.9	2.5	Manhattan	90.5	8.9
Rice	94.4	2.5	Middle Tennessee	94.9	2.0
Saint Peter’s	92.1	2.0	Fairfield	93.4	0.7
SMU	104.3	3.0	Wichita St.	104.3	3.0
Stanford	104.5	2.5	Washington	110.2	-3.2
Temple	106.8	3.0	Tulane	92.3	17.5
Tulsa	103.0	3.0	East Carolina	93.6	12.4
UTSA	100.1	2.5	UAB	99.7	2.9
Western Kentucky	103.3	3.0	Southern Miss.	102.2	4.1

 

Updated Conference Tournament Brackets

The Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament commences Monday night with four quarterfinal games.  In all, 11 conference brackets are now set and will begin play in the next week.  Here in order by the date these tournaments begin, are the 11 brackets.

Atlantic Sun Conference
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Quarterfinals–Monday, March 4
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Lipscomb (23-6)	8	Kennesaw St. (6-25)
2	Liberty (25-6)	7	Jacksonville (12-19)
3	North Florida (15-16)	6	North Alabama (10-21)
4	Florida Gulf Coast (14-17)	5	NJIT (20-11)
Semifinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1/8	Higher Seed	4/5	Lower Seed
2/7	Higher Seed	3/6	Lower Seed
Championship Game–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1/8/4/5	Higher Seed	2/3/6/7	Lower Seed

 

Big South Conference
Site: Home and #1 Seed
First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
7	Presbyterian (17-14)	10	UNC-Asheville (4-26)
6	Charleston Southern (15-14)	11	USC Upstate (6-25)
8	Hampton (14-15)	9	Longwood (15-16)
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7 (at Campbell)
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	Radford (20-10)	7/10	Presbyterian/UNC-Asheville
3	Winthrop (18-11)	6/11	Chas Sou./USC Upstate
1	Campbell (19-11)	8/9	Hampton/Longwood
4	Gardner-Webb (20-11)	5	High Point (16-14)
Semifinals–Thursday, March 8 (at Campbell)
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
2/7/10		3/6/11
1/8/9		4/5
Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Higher Seeded Team)
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)
Site: Higher Seed and Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 & Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
1	Wright St. (19-12)	8	IUPUI (16-15)
4	Green Bay (16-15)	5	Illinois-Chicago (16-15)
3	Oakland (15-16)	6	Youngstown St. (12-19)
2	Northern Kentucky (23-8)	7	Detroit (11-19)
Semifinals–Friday, March 15 (Detroit for last two rounds)
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1/8	Wright St./IUPUI	4/5	Green Bay/Illinois-Chi.
2/7	N Kentucky/Detroit	3/6	Oakland/Youngstown St.
Championship Game–Saturday, March 16
Seed	Team	Seed	Team

 

Patriot League
All games at home floor of higher seeds
First Round–Tuesday, March 5
Seed	Home		Visitors
8	Boston U (14-17)	9	Loyola (MD) (11-20)
7	Lafayette (10-19)	10	Holy Cross (15-16)
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Colgate (21-10)	8/9	Boston/Loyola (MD)
2	Bucknell (19-10)	7/10	Lafayette/Holy Cross
3	Lehigh (19-10)	6	Army (13-18)
4	American (15-14)	5	Navy (11-18)
Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1/8/9	Higher Seed	4/5	Lower Seed
2/7/10	Higher Seed	3/6	Lower Seed
Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
	Higher Semifinal Winner		Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Northeast Conference
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	St. Francis (PA) (16-13)	8	Bryant (10-19)
2	Fairleigh-Dickinson (17-13)	7	Wagner (13-16)
3	Sacred Heart (15-16)	6	Long Island (15-15)
4	Robert Morris (16-15)	5	St. Francis (Bklyn) (17-14)
Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
	Highest Remaining Seed		Lowest Remaining Seed
	2nd Highest Remaining Seed		3rd Highest Remaining Seed
Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
	Higher Semifinal Winner		Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Ohio Valley Conference
Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN
First Round–Wednesday, March 6
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
5	Morehead St. (12-19)	8	SIU Edwardsville (10-20)
6	Eastern Illinois (14-17)	7	UT-Martin (11-18)
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	Austin Peay (21-10)	5/8	Morehead/SIU-Edwardsville
3	Jacksonville St. (23-8)	6/7	E. Illinois/UT-Martin
Semifinals–Friday, March 8
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Belmont (25-4)	4/5/8	APSU/Mhead/SIUE
2	Murray St. (25-4)	3/6/7	JvilleSt/EIU/UTM
Championship Game–Saturday, March 9
Seed	Team	Seed	Team

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)
Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
First Round–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Indiana St. (15-15)	9	Valparaiso (14-17)
7	Illinois St. (16-15)	10	Evansville (11-20)
Quarterfinals–Friday, March 8
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Loyola (Chi) (19-12)	8/9	Ind St./Valpo
4	Missouri St. (16-15)	5	Bradley (17-14)
2	Drake (23-8)	7/10	Ill St./Evansville
3	Southern Illinois (17-14)	6	Northern Iowa (14-17)
Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1/8/9	Loyola/Ind St./Valpo	4/5	MSU/Bradley
2/7/10	Drake/Ill St/Evans	3/6	SIU/UNI
Championship Game–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team

West Coast Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
First Round–Thursday, March 7
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
7	San Diego (18-13)	10	Portland (7-24)
8	Pepperdine (13-17)	9	Pacific (14-17)
Second Round–Friday, March 8
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
6	Santa Clara (16-14)	7/10	USD/Portland
5	Loyola Marymount (20-10)	8/9	Pepper/Pacific
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
3	BYU (19-12)	6/7/10	SCU/USD/Portland
4	San Francisco (21-9)	5/8/9	LMU/Pepper/Pacific
Semifinals–Monday, March 11
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	Saint Mary’s (20-11)	3/6/7/10	BYU/SCU/USD/Portland
1	Gonzaga (29-2)	4/5/8/9	USF/LMU/Pepper/Pacific
Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Team	Seed	Team

 

Southern Conference
Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC
First Round–Friday, March 8
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	VMI (10-20)	9	Western Carolina (7-24)
7	Samford (16-15)	10	The Citadel (12-17)
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Wofford (26-4)	8/9	VMI/Western Carolina
4	East Tennessee St. (23-8)	5	Chattanooga (12-19)
2	UNC Greensboro (26-5)	7/10	Samford/Citadel
3	Furman (24-6)	6	Mercer (11-19)
Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1/8/9	Woff/VMI/WCU	4/5	ETSU/Chatt
2/7/10	UNCG/Sam/Cit	3/6	Furman/Mercer
Championship Game–Monday, March 11
Seed	Team	Seed	Team

 

Colonial Athletic Association
Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC
First Round–Saturday, March 9
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	James Madison (13-18)	9	Towson (10-21)
7	Elon (11-20)	10	UNC Wilmington (9-22)
Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Hofstra (25-6)	8/9	JMU/Towson
4	William & Mary (14-16)	5	Delaware (16-15)
2	Northeastern (20-10)	7/10	Elon/UNCW
3	Charleston (23-8)	6	Drexel (13-18)
Semifinals–Monday, March 11
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1/8/9	Hofstra/JMU/Towson	4/5	Wm&Mary/Delaware
2/7/10	NEastern/Elon/UNCW	3/6	Charleston/Drexel
Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Team	Seed	Team

 

Summit League
Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9 & Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1 (sat)	South Dakota St. (24-7)	8	Western Illinois (9-20)
4 (sun)	Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)	5	South Dakota (13-16)
3 (sun)	North Dakota St. (15-15)	6	Oral Roberts (11-20)
2 (sat)	Omaha (19-10)	7	North Dakota (12-17)
Semifinals–Monday, March 11
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1/8	SDSU/WIU	4/5	PFW/USD
2/7	Omaha/UND	3/6	NDSUORU
Championship Game–Tuesday, March12
Seed	Team	Seed	Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bracketnomics 2013: Elite 8–March 30-31, 2013

2013 NCAA Tournament— Elite 8 Schedule For Saturday, March 30-31, 2013

 

All times Eastern Daylight

Saturday, March 30, 2013
Time	Network	Region	Site	High Seed	Low Seed
4:30 PM	CBS	E	Washington, D. C.	3-Marquette (26-8)	4-Syracuse (29-9)
7:05 PM	CBS	W	Los Angeles	2-Ohio St. (29-7)	9-Wichita St. (29-8)
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Time	Network	Region	Site	High Seed	Low Seed
2:20 PM	CBS	S	Arlington, TX	3-Florida (29-7)	4-Michigan (29-7)
5:05 PM	CBS	MW	Indianapolis	1-Louisville (32-5)	2-Duke (30-5)

Tournament Total: 36-20Sweet 16 Record: 3-5 (almost totally busted)

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 2 of 8 (Only Louisville left of Final 4 choices, but they were our pick to go all the way)

Interesting Note: It is still possible that Ohio State and Michigan could meet in the National Championship Game. It would be an interesting rivalry game.

PiRate Criteria Stats (See our explanation on how we select our brackets at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/bracketnomics-2013-a-statistical-look-at-bracket-selection/  )

	Margins
Team	Scoring	FG%	Rebound	Turnover	Steals	R+T	SOS	Rd_WL%
Duke	13.0	6.4	-0.9	3.5	6.6	4.62	60.68	72.2
Florida	18.2	10.4	4.9	3.0	7.1	9.92	57.58	65.0
Louisville	16.3	6.1	3.8	6.3	11.0	13.56	59.41	80.0
Marquette	5.9	5.5	4.6	-0.6	6.8	5.24	58.15	52.9
Michigan	12.7	6.6	3.2	2.8	6.0	7.76	55.94	64.7
Ohio St.	11.4	6.1	3.1	2.9	6.8	7.94	58.57	70.6
Syracuse	12.1	6.8	4.1	2.9	9.0	9.38	59.29	61.1
Wichita St.	8.9	4.6	7.9	0.5	7.6	10.02	53.79	68.4

Game Previews

Marquette vs. Syracuse

When these two teams played in Milwaukee in late February, Syracuse was going through a swoon in which they lost four of five games.  The Orangemen blew a second half lead when Marquette began collapsing the SU zone defense and passing to the gaps for open jumpers.  Marquette forced the issue once Syracuse widened the zone, with Golden Eagle players driving the gaps and drawing fouls.  MU ended up 29-35 at the line, while the Orangemen were just 5-7.  Davante Gardner, benched by Coach Buzz Williams, came into the game a couple minutes into the opening half and scored a career-high 26 points on a perfect 7-7 from the field and an almost perfect 12-13 at the line.  Still, Marquette won at home by just three points, 74-71.

Expect different results in this game.  Remember, games are officiated differently, and no team will get 35 free throw attempts or have the benefit of getting “homer” calls.

This time, on a neutral floor, we expect the result to be different.  The ‘Cuse is a different team than the one that lost in Milwaukee five weeks ago.  Coach Jim Boeheim’s team enjoys an R+T number that equates to four extra scoring chances, and Syracuse has a better field goal percentage margin.  These advantages were accumulated while SU was playing a schedule that was more than a point per game better than Marquette.

PiRate Pick: Syracuse 70  Marquette 61

 

 

Ohio St. vs. Wichita St.

WichitaState looked like a Final Four team in their Sweet 16 win over La Salle, as well as previous wins over Pittsburgh and Gonzaga.  Meanwhile, OhioState has been quite fortunate to escape with wins in their last two games after trouncing Iona in their first tournament game.

This game should be another tight affair, as the two teams match up evenly.  OhioState has a slight, almost inconsequential, edge in field goal percentage margin.  WichitaState has a decided advantage in rebounding margin, but OhioState has a marked advantage in turnover margin.  However, the Buckeyes do not generate a lot of steals, and WichitaState has the R+T advantage by more than two extra scoring chances.  The boys from Columbus take the upper hand due to a considerably stronger strength of schedule, to the tune of almost five points per game.  Coach Thad Matta’s team is also the better team away from home, and that tilts the scale in his favor.

 

PiRate Pick: Ohio St. 78  Wichita St. 73  

 

 

Florida vs. Michigan

Someone must be looking down from above on Gator coach Billy Donovan.  The two teams that Florida would have struggled against, Georgetown and Kansas, were eliminated before Florida was forced to play them.  The Gators faced a Minnesota team that lacked the quickness and outside shooting ability to challenge them.  They got the weakest team in the Sweet 16 instead of the Hoyas or even San DiegoState.  Now, they face a Michigan team that cannot defend well enough to stop the Gator’s halfcourt attack, while Kansas could have shut them down.

Florida will reach another Final Four because they have superior PiRate Criteria numbers across the board.  The Gators enjoy a field goal margin advantage of 3.8%, a rebounding margin advantage of 1.7 per game, a turnover margin advantage of 0.2 (basically a wash but UF has the edge), a steals advantage of 1.1, which gives the Gators an R+T advantage of more than two additional scoring chances.  Add a slightly more difficult strength of schedule, and an infinitesimal advantage in winning percentage away from home, and the Gators have too much going in their favor.  Michigan’s only chance is to bomb away from three-point land, but Florida is one of the toughest teams against the three-pointer.

 

PiRate Pick: Florida 79  Michigan 67

 

 

Louisville vs. Duke

In the Sweet 16, we had a rematch of the 1987 National Championship Game.  Now, we get a rematch of the 1986 National Championship Game.  Syracuse avenged their last-second loss to Indiana and won their Sweet 16 game over the Hoosiers.  Does that mean, we are going with Duke to avenge their title loss?  Not on your life.  Louisville remains our choice to cut down the nets in Atlanta, and our PiRate criteria shows the Cardinals to be a solid but not spectacular pick in this game.

Duke owns two advantages over Rick Pitino’s squad.  The Blue Devils have a slightly better field goal percentage margin and a decent strength of schedule edge.  Louisville owns the rest of the criteria advantages—by 4.7 on the boards, by 2.8 in turnover margin, by 4.4 in steals, by almost nine more scoring chances in R+T, and by 7% in winning percentage away from home.

 

PiRate Pick: Louisville 77  Duke 70

 

Check back Thursday, April 4 for our Final 4 Preview

Sunday’s NCAA Tournament PiRate Criteria Ratings

All Times EDT

Number in (Parentheses) indicates PiRate Criteria Rating

For a detailed explanation of the PiRate Criteria Rating, click on the following link:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/bracketnomics-505-2011-edition/

 

12:15 PM on CBS

North Carolina (15) vs. Washington (13)

CBS gives you the most exciting 3^rd round game to start off your Sunday.  These teams can get up and down the floor and score quickly.  We expect it to be more like the late 1960’s when North Carolina and Davidson met in the NCAA Tournament for a couple of historic games.

 

The Tar Heels are the slight favorite, but this game could go either way.  When you have two teams capable of topping 85 points, it comes down to which team can control the boards and force more turnovers.  North Carolina should win the battle on the boards, but Washington should win the turnover battle and force more steals.

 

We thought about taking the Huskies, but Coach Roy Williams has a long history of getting to the Sweet 16, while Coach Lorenzo Romar has a shorter history of doing so.

 

We think this will still be undecided with five minutes to go, but the Tar Heels have three go-to guys that can win this game (Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, John Henson, while UW has two (Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning).  Three to two odds makes for a 60% chance that nothing will be finer in Carolina today.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 83  Washington 76

 

2:45 PM on CBS

Duke (15) vs. Michigan (Elim)

Shortly after we released the 68-team preview last week, the news that Kyrie Irving was ready to play once again changed Duke’s criteria score.  We have not set way to add points in cases like this; we have to make a semi-educated guess.  Before Irving went down to injury, Duke was 8-0, outscoring opponents by a score of 89-66.  He returned to play against Hampton, so in the nine games in which he has contributed, Duke’s average scoring margin is 89-64.  We figure Irving’s presence makes Duke seven to 10 points better.  That would place their PiRate Criteria score right there with Kansas for the top spot.

 

Michigan caught the biggest break in this tournament.  They played a Tennessee team that completely quit once a six-point Volunteer lead was wiped away.  The Wolverines outscored Tennessee 52-16 the final 24 minutes of their game.

 

Duke will not wilt if Michigan erases a six-point Blue Devil lead.  This team is better than last year’s national champion with Irving teaming up with Nolan Smith.  Last year’s champion was a little stronger inside, but with Irving, Smith, Kyle Singler, Mason and Miles Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, Seth Curry, and Andre Dawkins, Coach Mike Krzyzewski has too many weapons to completely stop.

 

Michigan relies on three-point shooting and great penetration.  Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway, Junior can take the maize and blue on their shoulders and make life miserable for opposing teams that are not overly aggressive defensively.  Duke is not one of those teams.

 

The Blue Devils will stifle the Michigan offense and score enough fast break points and second-chance points to win this one by double digits.

 

Prediction: Duke 76  Michigan 61

 

5:15 PM on CBS

Ohio State (21) vs. George Mason (8)

George Mason has done it before.  The Colonials knocked off Connecticut and North Carolina among others when they made their historic run to the Final Four in 2006.  This GMU team has more talent and almost as much experience, making the Colonials a legitimate contender to advance to the Sweet 16.

 

One problem for GMU: they are facing the team with the second best PiRate Criteria score.  Ohio State has too much firepower for Coach Jim Larranaga to pull magic out of a hat again.

 

Jared Sullinger is too strong and quick inside for the Colonials to stop, and Ryan Pearson will not be able to have a big game against the Buckeyes’ inside defense.  Jon Diebler and William Buford will see a lot of open looks from outside, and we cannot see both having an off day.

 

Prediction: Ohio State 74  George Mason 59

 

6:10 PM on TNT

Texas (18) vs. Arizona (3)

The Longhorns almost could not hold onto a big lead in their first game, while Arizona never could break away from Memphis in theirs.

 

We believe Texas will be more focused on this game and put together 40 minutes of total basketball.  The Longhorns present tough matchup problems with four starters that are great combo inside-outside players.  When they get their mind into the game, they can control a game at both ends of the floor.

 

Jordan Hamilton, Gary Johnson, Tristan Thompson, and Cory Joseph should be focused after watching a huge lead against Oakland almost evaporate entirely in the final minutes.

 

Arizona benefitted from playing a weak second-round opponent.  The Wildcats are not back to where they were in the Lute Olson days.  In Derrick Williams, they have an inside player that can dominate in the paint, but he can be neutralized by an opponent that gets the Wildcats into a running transition game.

 

Texas is not a pure running team, but the Longhorns can take advantage of the opportunities presented to them.  They will do so today.

 

Prediction: Texas 78  Arizona 65

 

7:10 PM on TBS

Purdue (16) vs. Virginia Commonwealth (-1)

Virginia Commonwealth coach Shaka Smart may be on the radar of two or three big-time coaching searches.  The second year coach has proven to be an excellent tournament tactician.

 

This Ram team does not figure to advance into the second week of the tournament, because in the past, teams with negative PiRate Critieria scores only made it to the Sweet 16 if their first two opponents had either negative scores or ELIM scores.

 

Purdue is only 11-6 since their 15-1 start.  If E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson do not combine for at least 35 points and 20 rebounds, the Boilermakers can be beaten.  We tend to believe that both stars will shine brightly today, and the lads from West Lafayette will be preparing for a mighty rivalry game later in the week.

 

Prediction: Purdue 73  V C U 64

 

7:45 PM on truTV

Syracuse (17) vs. Marquette (3)

When a conference places 11 teams in the Big Dance, it goes that there could be matchups of teams from that conference facing off in earlier rounds.  For the second time this weekend, the Big East has another “conference game” in the NCAA Tournament.

 

In the regular season, Marquette won a close game in Milwaukee, 76-70.  It was the fourth consecutive loss for the Orangemen following an 18-0 start.  Once the ‘Cuse got over their midseason swoon, they recovered to win six in a row before meeting the hot Huskies from Connecticut in the Big East Tournament.

 

Is a 14-loss team good enough to advance to the Sweet 16?  This is not your father’s Marquette teams.  Bo Ellis, Lloyd Walton, Dean Meminger, and Butch Lee are not walking through that door.  Al McGuire won’t be receiving a couple of technical fouls.

 

The Golden Eagles have one thing going for them; they know how to attack Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense.  They should get enough open looks to keep this game close, and if they can come close on the boards, they will be there at the end.

 

We expect a close game, but Syracuse will dictate the tempo.  Expect a lower-scoring game, with Syracuse’s Rick Jackson being just a little too much for Marquette’s interior defense to handle.

 

Prediction: Syracuse 68  Marquette 62

 

8:40 PM on TNT

Kansas (23) vs. Illinois (1)

Kansas remembers well what happened one year ago just down I-44 in OKC from where they are playing today.  The Jayhawks exited the tournament as one of the co-favorites to win it all, when Northern Iowa pulled off a major shocker.

 

We do not see KU meeting a similar fate in Tulsa today.  This team is loaded with talent, both inside and outside, and they have no major liabilities to be exploited.  Markieff and Marcus Morris are the best set of twins in college basketball since the Van Arsdale brothers (Dick and Tom) in the 1960’s. The two combine for 31 points and 15+ rebounds per game.  Off the bench, beefy Thomas Robinson provides extra inside punch.

 

The taller of the twins, Markieff can set up outside and bury the three-pointer or pass high-low to his brother.  It is hard to stop both, so opponents have to sell out to stop the inside threat first.

 

Illinois greatly underachieved this season.  The Illini should have contended for second place in the Big Ten and should have won five or six additional games.  A team talented enough to beat North Carolina by 12 points as well as Oakland, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, and Penn State handily also lost to Illinois-Chicago and Indiana.  For the Illini to have a chance in this game, they will have to penetrate the KU defense and force fouls.  For two reasons, we do not believe that will work today.  First, the officiating in this tournament has been very relaxed.  Second, we do not believe Illinois point guard Demetri McCamey can get through the front line of defense enough times to change the outcome of the game.

 

Prediction: Kansas 80  Illinois 68

 

9:45 PM on TBS

Notre Dame (11) vs. Florida State (2)

Too bad this one isn’t being played at the Fiesta Bowl.  These former football rivals will meet in Chicago where the St. Patrick’s Day celebrants should be back to normal today.  We consider Notre Dame to have a slight near-home court advantage, and the Irish really do not need anything extra to win this game.

 

Florida State gets extra points for Chris Singleton’s return from injury.  However, Singleton scored just five points and grabbed just two rebounds in 16 minutes of play in the win over Texas A&M; this was not very Kyrie Irving-like.  He is not ready to take the Seminoles on his shoulders and lead them into the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Notre Dame 65  Florida State 59

 

Coming Later This Week: We will update the PiRate Criteria Scores based on the two games each of the Sweet 16 teams playe