The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 30, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 30, 2022

HomeVisitorsSpread
BrownCornell4.5
PurdueOhio St.9.2
East CarolinaCincinnati-5.9
Wright St.Purdue Fort Wayne4.4
Northern KentuckyCleveland St.-1.4
George WashingtonFordham-1.5
ProvidenceMarquette1.1
WisconsinMinnesota9.2
Fairleigh DickinsonCentral Connecticut1.3
BryantLong Island5.1
IonaSaint Peter’s11.1
Morgan St.Delaware St.14.1
St. Francis (NY)Wagner-11.8
DrakeLoyola (Chi.)-3.2
BradleyIndiana St.7.9
MassachusettsGeorge Mason8.7
SienaQuinnipiac0.4
ManhattanMarist-2.0
MonmouthNiagara8.5
RiderCanisius1.9
Boston CollegePittsburgh4.0
Southern IllinoisValparaiso5.8
BucknellLoyola (MD)-3.9
McNeese St.New Orleans0.7
Washington St.Colorado5.8

January 23, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 23, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
ProvidenceButler10.5
PurdueNorthwestern13.2
BryantSt. Francis (NY)10.3
NiagaraRider8.9
CanisiusSaint Peter’s-2.4
MarquetteXavier-0.9
Mount St. Mary’sCentral Connecticut8.4
Purdue Fort WayneYoungstown St.1.9
EvansvilleIllinois St.-2.2
MaristFairfield3.7
MonmouthManhattan11.1
QuinnipiacIona-8.9
Saint LouisMassachusetts9.0
CaliforniaArizona-14.9
TulsaMemphis-5.7
MerrimackWagner-8.4
Cleveland St.Robert Morris10.9
IndianaMichigan3.7
UTSAUTEP-6.8
St. Francis (PA)Sacred Heart1.9
Fairleigh DickinsonLong Island-6.7
OregonWashington10.8

January 19, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
ArmyAmerican8.9
UNC AshevilleNorth Carolina A&T5.6
RadfordHampton7.1
FloridaMississippi St.4.7
AlabamaLSU0.7
Rhode IslandLa Salle14.9
Saint Joseph’sGeorge Washington10.4
QuinnipiacRider6.2
Loyola (MD)Boston U-0.8
BucknellColgate-11.6
CreightonSt. John’s4.0
NavyLehigh14.6
Gardner-WebbUSC Upstate10.9
Charleston SouthernHigh Point-7.0
LongwoodCampbell4.0
LouisvilleBoston College7.4
NC St.Virginia Tech-4.1
Georgia TechWake Forest-3.4
NJITVermont-12.0
BinghamtonStony Brook-1.8
HartfordNew Hampshire-2.9
UMass LowellMaine13.4
Maryland-Baltimore Co.Albany5.5
ValparaisoNorthern Iowa-4.5
FurmanWestern Carolina15.0
East Tennessee St.Mercer4.0
WoffordThe Citadel12.6
VillanovaMarquette11.1
Oklahoma St.TCU5.7
Southern IllinoisIndiana St.4.8
Missouri St.Illinois St.11.7
DrakeBradley5.5
Texas A&MKentucky-8.0
RutgersIowa-5.3
AuburnGeorgia23.9
DePaulXavier-5.9
PittsburghVirginia-3.7
WyomingSan Jose St.18.2
Colorado St.New Mexico15.8

Coming later today: Our fourth annual Top 20 Coaches Ready For Prime Time. You will see some familiar names, but you are going to see some names you may not know, including one coach from the Division 2 ranks.

January 11, 2022

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am
HomeVisitorsSpread
CanisiusQuinnipiac-0.5
FairfieldIona-5.3
StanfordUSC-6.6
TowsonHofstra3.8
TennesseeSouth Carolina14.3
Penn St.Rutgers4.1
BaylorTexas Tech10.1
VanderbiltKentucky-8.6
MarquetteDePaul7.0
SyracusePittsburgh10.2
North AlabamaEastern Kentucky-2.3
LibertyNorth Florida13.2
Jacksonville St.Lipscomb11.9
JacksonvilleStetson5.7
BellarmineCentral Arkansas12.1
La SalleSt. Bonaventure-10.7
VCUGeorge Washington17.7
DaytonSaint Louis1.3
DavidsonMassachusetts10.7
James MadisonNortheastern3.9
DrexelDelaware2.5
AkronBall St.10.3
OhioBowling Green8.0
Kent St.Northern Illinois13.0
Western MichiganBuffalo-15.0
Miami (O)Toledo-2.2
Eastern MichiganCentral Michigan6.7
Stephen F. AustinUT Rio Grande Valley10.9
KansasIowa St.12.0
Florida St.Miami (Fla.)6.8
Northern IowaIndiana St.8.5
TexasOklahoma5.4
NebraskaIllinois-14.1
Texas A&MMississippi4.7
AlabamaAuburn-0.1
CreightonProvidence1.2
West VirginiaOklahoma St.2.6
Loyola (Chi.)Valparaiso17.2
Fresno St.San Jose St.16.1
UNLVNew Mexico7.4

February 26, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 26, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:55 am

Wednesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Abilene Christian

Sam Houston St.

3.8

Air Force

New Mexico

-1.4

American

Lafayette

2.6

Arkansas

Tennessee

5.5

Army

Holy Cross

11.7

Boston College

Notre Dame

-5.1

Bucknell

Colgate

-4.8

California Baptist

Utah Valley

7.7

Citadel

Mercer

-6.0

Connecticut

Central Florida

8.3

Florida

LSU

3.4

Fordham

Rhode Island

-12.8

George Washington

Richmond

-8.7

Houston Baptist

Nicholls

-8.9

Illinois St.

Bradley

-3.8

Lamar

Incarnate Word

12.9

Lehigh

Boston U

-6.0

Long Beach St.

Cal St. Northridge

0.7

Louisiana

Arkansas St.

2.0

Maine

New Hampshire

-2.8

Manhattan

Marist

6.3

Marquette

Georgetown

7.2

Massachusetts

VCU

-6.8

McNeese

Southeast Louisiana

10.0

Minnesota

Maryland

-0.2

Navy

Loyola (MD)

3.4

New Orleans

Texas A&M-CC

2.0

Northern Iowa

Evansville

18.4

Omaha

North Dakota

4.6

Penn St.

Rutgers

6.3

Pittsburgh

Syracuse

0.4

Purdue Fort Wayne

Denver

6.2

Quinnipiac

Siena

-2.8

Saint Louis

Saint Joseph’s

14.3

South Carolina

Georgia

5.8

South Florida

East Carolina

8.6

Southern Illinois

Indiana St.

0.4

St. Bonaventure

Duquesne

1.4

Stanford

Utah

9.6

Stephen F. Austin

Northwestern St.

15.6

Stony Brook

Hartford

9.7

UMass Lowell

Albany

1.9

UMBC

Binghamton

10.0

UNC Greensboro

Furman

4.0

UNLV

Boise St.

0.5

Vanderbilt

Missouri

-1.5

Villanova

St. John’s

10.4

Virginia Tech

Virginia

-0.3

VMI

Chattanooga

-2.9

Western Carolina

Samford

11.4

Wofford

East Tennessee St.

-4.0

 

Key TV Games on Wednesday Night

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

BTN

Penn St.

Rutgers

7:00 PM

ESPN+

UNC Greensboro

Furman

8:30 PM

FS1

Marquette

Georgetown

8:30 PM

SECN

Arkansas

Tennessee

9:00 PM

BTN

Minnesota

Maryland

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Florida

LSU

10:00 PM

Pac12

Stanford

Utah

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 18, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 18, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:41 am

Tuesday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Bryant

Merrimack

1.3

Buffalo

Ball St.

1.7

Central Connecticut

Fairleigh Dickinson

-6.8

Eastern Michigan

Kent St.

-2.5

Florida

Arkansas

3.9

Florida St.

Pittsburgh

12.1

Long Island

St. Francis (NY)

6.9

LSU

Kentucky

2.2

Marquette

Creighton

3.4

Maryland

Northwestern

16.6

Massachusetts

Saint Louis

-3.7

Missouri

Ole Miss

2.3

New Mexico

Nevada

-1.7

Ohio

Central Michigan

2.5

Oklahoma

Baylor

-3.1

Penn St.

Illinois

7.1

Saint Joseph’s

Davidson

-11.3

St. Francis (PA)

Robert Morris

5.0

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

12.2

UNLV

Colorado St.

0.1

VCU

Dayton

-3.1

Wagner

Mount St. Mary’s

-2.2

West Virginia

Oklahoma St.

11.5

Western Michigan

Akron

-9.2

Wisconsin

Purdue

2.6

Tuesday’s Top TV Games

(Where both teams are contending for a conference championship or NCAA Tournament at-large bid.)

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

6:30 PM

FS1

Penn St.

Illinois

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Florida

Arkansas

7:00 PM

ESPN

Wisconsin

Purdue

8:30 PM

CBSSN

VCU

Dayton

8:30 PM

FS1

Marquette

Creighton

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Oklahoma

Baylor

9:00 PM

ESPN

LSU

Kentucky

 

 

 

January 7, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 7, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:00 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Tuesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Maryland

Ohio St.

1.7

Louisville

Miami (Fla.)

13.5

Boston College

Virginia

-6.6

Rutgers

Penn St.

0.6

South Carolina

Florida

-4.8

Missouri

Tennessee

3.6

Marquette

Providence

8.6

Temple

Houston

-0.6

Texas Tech

Baylor

0.9

Creighton

Villanova

2.2

Georgia

Kentucky

-2.8

Nebraska

Iowa

-8.8

Syracuse

Virginia Tech

3.7

Texas A&M

Ole Miss

-2.5

Kansas St.

TCU

-0.1

Air Force

Utah St.

-8.2

New Mexico

Fresno St.

5.9

 

 

March 3, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 3, 2019

Games Scheduled for:

Sunday

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Charlotte

91.7

2.5

UTEP

93.3

0.9

Connecticut

105.5

3.0

South Florida

103.4

5.1

DePaul

103.9

2.5

St. John’s

108.6

-2.2

Florida Int’l.

96.9

2.5

Louisiana Tech

101.7

-2.3

Georgia Tech

103.9

3.0

Boston College

104.8

2.1

Illinois

106.9

2.0

Northwestern

106.7

2.2

Louisiana

100.0

2.5

Appalachian St.

97.7

4.8

Louisville

113.5

3.0

Notre Dame

105.9

10.6

Marist

95.5

2.5

Rider

98.6

-0.6

Marquette

113.5

3.0

Creighton

109.5

7.0

Maryland

113.4

3.0

Michgan

117.8

-1.4

Niagara

92.2

2.5

Siena

95.3

-0.6

North Texas

101.6

3.0

Marshall

98.7

5.9

Oregon St.

106.2

3.0

Arizona St.

108.0

1.2

Quinnipiac

96.9

2.5

Manhattan

90.5

8.9

Rice

94.4

2.5

Middle Tennessee

94.9

2.0

Saint Peter’s

92.1

2.0

Fairfield

93.4

0.7

SMU

104.3

3.0

Wichita St.

104.3

3.0

Stanford

104.5

2.5

Washington

110.2

-3.2

Temple

106.8

3.0

Tulane

92.3

17.5

Tulsa

103.0

3.0

East Carolina

93.6

12.4

UTSA

100.1

2.5

UAB

99.7

2.9

Western Kentucky

103.3

3.0

Southern Miss.

102.2

4.1

 

Updated Conference Tournament Brackets

The Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament commences Monday night with four quarterfinal games.  In all, 11 conference brackets are now set and will begin play in the next week.  Here in order by the date these tournaments begin, are the 11 brackets.

Atlantic Sun Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Monday, March 4

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Lipscomb (23-6)

8

Kennesaw St. (6-25)

2

Liberty (25-6)

7

Jacksonville (12-19)

3

North Florida (15-16)

6

North Alabama (10-21)

4

Florida Gulf Coast (14-17)

5

NJIT (20-11)

Semifinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8

Higher Seed

4/5

Lower Seed

2/7

Higher Seed

3/6

Lower Seed

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8/4/5

Higher Seed

2/3/6/7

Lower Seed

 

Big South Conference

Site: Home and #1 Seed

First Round–Tuesday, March 5 (at Higher Seeded Teams)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

Presbyterian (17-14)

10

UNC-Asheville (4-26)

6

Charleston Southern (15-14)

11

USC Upstate (6-25)

8

Hampton (14-15)

9

Longwood (15-16)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7 (at Campbell)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Radford (20-10)

7/10

Presbyterian/UNC-Asheville

3

Winthrop (18-11)

6/11

Chas Sou./USC Upstate

1

Campbell (19-11)

8/9

Hampton/Longwood

4

Gardner-Webb (20-11)

5

High Point (16-14)

Semifinals–Thursday, March 8 (at Campbell)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

2/7/10

3/6/11

1/8/9

4/5

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Higher Seeded Team)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

 

Horizon League (Motor City Madness)

Site: Higher Seed and Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Quarterfinals–Tuesday, March 5 & Wednesday, March 6 (at Higher Seed)

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

1

Wright St. (19-12)

8

IUPUI (16-15)

4

Green Bay (16-15)

5

Illinois-Chicago (16-15)

3

Oakland (15-16)

6

Youngstown St. (12-19)

2

Northern Kentucky (23-8)

7

Detroit (11-19)

Semifinals–Friday, March 15 (Detroit for last two rounds)

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8

Wright St./IUPUI

4/5

Green Bay/Illinois-Chi.

2/7

N Kentucky/Detroit

3/6

Oakland/Youngstown St.

Championship Game–Saturday, March 16

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

First Round–Tuesday, March 5

Seed

Home

Visitors

8

Boston U (14-17)

9

Loyola (MD) (11-20)

7

Lafayette (10-19)

10

Holy Cross (15-16)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Colgate (21-10)

8/9

Boston/Loyola (MD)

2

Bucknell (19-10)

7/10

Lafayette/Holy Cross

3

Lehigh (19-10)

6

Army (13-18)

4

American (15-14)

5

Navy (11-18)

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1/8/9

Higher Seed

4/5

Lower Seed

2/7/10

Higher Seed

3/6

Lower Seed

Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Higher Semifinal Winner

Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

St. Francis (PA) (16-13)

8

Bryant (10-19)

2

Fairleigh-Dickinson (17-13)

7

Wagner (13-16)

3

Sacred Heart (15-16)

6

Long Island (15-15)

4

Robert Morris (16-15)

5

St. Francis (Bklyn) (17-14)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Highest Remaining Seed

Lowest Remaining Seed

2nd Highest Remaining Seed

3rd Highest Remaining Seed

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

Higher Semifinal Winner

Lower Semifinal Winner

 

Ohio Valley Conference

Site: Ford Center, Evansville, IN

First Round–Wednesday, March 6

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

5

Morehead St. (12-19)

8

SIU Edwardsville (10-20)

6

Eastern Illinois (14-17)

7

UT-Martin (11-18)

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

Austin Peay (21-10)

5/8

Morehead/SIU-Edwardsville

3

Jacksonville St. (23-8)

6/7

E. Illinois/UT-Martin

Semifinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Belmont (25-4)

4/5/8

APSU/Mhead/SIUE

2

Murray St. (25-4)

3/6/7

JvilleSt/EIU/UTM

Championship Game–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)

Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Indiana St. (15-15)

9

Valparaiso (14-17)

7

Illinois St. (16-15)

10

Evansville (11-20)

Quarterfinals–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Loyola (Chi) (19-12)

8/9

Ind St./Valpo

4

Missouri St. (16-15)

5

Bradley (17-14)

2

Drake (23-8)

7/10

Ill St./Evansville

3

Southern Illinois (17-14)

6

Northern Iowa (14-17)

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Loyola/Ind St./Valpo

4/5

MSU/Bradley

2/7/10

Drake/Ill St/Evans

3/6

SIU/UNI

Championship Game–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

West Coast Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Thursday, March 7

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

7

San Diego (18-13)

10

Portland (7-24)

8

Pepperdine (13-17)

9

Pacific (14-17)

Second Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

6

Santa Clara (16-14)

7/10

USD/Portland

5

Loyola Marymount (20-10)

8/9

Pepper/Pacific

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

3

BYU (19-12)

6/7/10

SCU/USD/Portland

4

San Francisco (21-9)

5/8/9

LMU/Pepper/Pacific

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Saint Mary’s (20-11)

3/6/7/10

BYU/SCU/USD/Portland

1

Gonzaga (29-2)

4/5/8/9

USF/LMU/Pepper/Pacific

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Southern Conference

Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC

First Round–Friday, March 8

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

VMI (10-20)

9

Western Carolina (7-24)

7

Samford (16-15)

10

The Citadel (12-17)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Wofford (26-4)

8/9

VMI/Western Carolina

4

East Tennessee St. (23-8)

5

Chattanooga (12-19)

2

UNC Greensboro (26-5)

7/10

Samford/Citadel

3

Furman (24-6)

6

Mercer (11-19)

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Woff/VMI/WCU

4/5

ETSU/Chatt

2/7/10

UNCG/Sam/Cit

3/6

Furman/Mercer

Championship Game–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC

First Round–Saturday, March 9

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

James Madison (13-18)

9

Towson (10-21)

7

Elon (11-20)

10

UNC Wilmington (9-22)

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Hofstra (25-6)

8/9

JMU/Towson

4

William & Mary (14-16)

5

Delaware (16-15)

2

Northeastern (20-10)

7/10

Elon/UNCW

3

Charleston (23-8)

6

Drexel (13-18)

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8/9

Hofstra/JMU/Towson

4/5

Wm&Mary/Delaware

2/7/10

NEastern/Elon/UNCW

3/6

Charleston/Drexel

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

Summit League

Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9 & Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1 (sat)

South Dakota St. (24-7)

8

Western Illinois (9-20)

4 (sun)

Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)

5

South Dakota (13-16)

3 (sun)

North Dakota St. (15-15)

6

Oral Roberts (11-20)

2 (sat)

Omaha (19-10)

7

North Dakota (12-17)

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1/8

SDSU/WIU

4/5

PFW/USD

2/7

Omaha/UND

3/6

NDSUORU

Championship Game–Tuesday, March12

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 30, 2013

Bracketnomics 2013: Elite 8–March 30-31, 2013

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:56 am

2013 NCAA Tournament— Elite 8 Schedule For Saturday, March 30-31, 2013

 

All times Eastern Daylight

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Time

Network

Region

Site

High Seed

Low Seed

4:30 PM

CBS

E

Washington, D. C.

3-Marquette (26-8)

4-Syracuse (29-9)

7:05 PM

CBS

W

Los Angeles

2-Ohio St. (29-7)

9-Wichita St. (29-8)

Sunday, March 31, 2013

Time

Network

Region

Site

High Seed

Low Seed

2:20 PM

CBS

S

Arlington, TX

3-Florida (29-7)

4-Michigan (29-7)

5:05 PM

CBS

MW

Indianapolis

1-Louisville (32-5)

2-Duke (30-5)

Tournament Total: 36-20Sweet 16 Record: 3-5 (almost totally busted)

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 2 of 8 (Only Louisville left of Final 4 choices, but they were our pick to go all the way)

Interesting Note: It is still possible that Ohio State and Michigan could meet in the National Championship Game. It would be an interesting rivalry game.

PiRate Criteria Stats (See our explanation on how we select our brackets at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2013/03/17/bracketnomics-2013-a-statistical-look-at-bracket-selection/  )

Margins

Team

Scoring

FG%

Rebound

Turnover

Steals

R+T

SOS

Rd_WL%

Duke

13.0

6.4

-0.9

3.5

6.6

4.62

60.68

72.2

Florida

18.2

10.4

4.9

3.0

7.1

9.92

57.58

65.0

Louisville

16.3

6.1

3.8

6.3

11.0

13.56

59.41

80.0

Marquette

5.9

5.5

4.6

-0.6

6.8

5.24

58.15

52.9

Michigan

12.7

6.6

3.2

2.8

6.0

7.76

55.94

64.7

Ohio St.

11.4

6.1

3.1

2.9

6.8

7.94

58.57

70.6

Syracuse

12.1

6.8

4.1

2.9

9.0

9.38

59.29

61.1

Wichita St.

8.9

4.6

7.9

0.5

7.6

10.02

53.79

68.4

Game Previews

Marquette vs. Syracuse

When these two teams played in Milwaukee in late February, Syracuse was going through a swoon in which they lost four of five games.  The Orangemen blew a second half lead when Marquette began collapsing the SU zone defense and passing to the gaps for open jumpers.  Marquette forced the issue once Syracuse widened the zone, with Golden Eagle players driving the gaps and drawing fouls.  MU ended up 29-35 at the line, while the Orangemen were just 5-7.  Davante Gardner, benched by Coach Buzz Williams, came into the game a couple minutes into the opening half and scored a career-high 26 points on a perfect 7-7 from the field and an almost perfect 12-13 at the line.  Still, Marquette won at home by just three points, 74-71.

Expect different results in this game.  Remember, games are officiated differently, and no team will get 35 free throw attempts or have the benefit of getting “homer” calls.

This time, on a neutral floor, we expect the result to be different.  The ‘Cuse is a different team than the one that lost in Milwaukee five weeks ago.  Coach Jim Boeheim’s team enjoys an R+T number that equates to four extra scoring chances, and Syracuse has a better field goal percentage margin.  These advantages were accumulated while SU was playing a schedule that was more than a point per game better than Marquette.

PiRate Pick: Syracuse 70  Marquette 61

 

 

Ohio St. vs. Wichita St.

WichitaState looked like a Final Four team in their Sweet 16 win over La Salle, as well as previous wins over Pittsburgh and Gonzaga.  Meanwhile, OhioState has been quite fortunate to escape with wins in their last two games after trouncing Iona in their first tournament game.

This game should be another tight affair, as the two teams match up evenly.  OhioState has a slight, almost inconsequential, edge in field goal percentage margin.  WichitaState has a decided advantage in rebounding margin, but OhioState has a marked advantage in turnover margin.  However, the Buckeyes do not generate a lot of steals, and WichitaState has the R+T advantage by more than two extra scoring chances.  The boys from Columbus take the upper hand due to a considerably stronger strength of schedule, to the tune of almost five points per game.  Coach Thad Matta’s team is also the better team away from home, and that tilts the scale in his favor.

 

PiRate Pick: Ohio St. 78  Wichita St. 73  

 

 

Florida vs. Michigan

Someone must be looking down from above on Gator coach Billy Donovan.  The two teams that Florida would have struggled against, Georgetown and Kansas, were eliminated before Florida was forced to play them.  The Gators faced a Minnesota team that lacked the quickness and outside shooting ability to challenge them.  They got the weakest team in the Sweet 16 instead of the Hoyas or even San DiegoState.  Now, they face a Michigan team that cannot defend well enough to stop the Gator’s halfcourt attack, while Kansas could have shut them down.

Florida will reach another Final Four because they have superior PiRate Criteria numbers across the board.  The Gators enjoy a field goal margin advantage of 3.8%, a rebounding margin advantage of 1.7 per game, a turnover margin advantage of 0.2 (basically a wash but UF has the edge), a steals advantage of 1.1, which gives the Gators an R+T advantage of more than two additional scoring chances.  Add a slightly more difficult strength of schedule, and an infinitesimal advantage in winning percentage away from home, and the Gators have too much going in their favor.  Michigan’s only chance is to bomb away from three-point land, but Florida is one of the toughest teams against the three-pointer.

 

PiRate Pick: Florida 79  Michigan 67

 

 

Louisville vs. Duke

In the Sweet 16, we had a rematch of the 1987 National Championship Game.  Now, we get a rematch of the 1986 National Championship Game.  Syracuse avenged their last-second loss to Indiana and won their Sweet 16 game over the Hoosiers.  Does that mean, we are going with Duke to avenge their title loss?  Not on your life.  Louisville remains our choice to cut down the nets in Atlanta, and our PiRate criteria shows the Cardinals to be a solid but not spectacular pick in this game.

Duke owns two advantages over Rick Pitino’s squad.  The Blue Devils have a slightly better field goal percentage margin and a decent strength of schedule edge.  Louisville owns the rest of the criteria advantages—by 4.7 on the boards, by 2.8 in turnover margin, by 4.4 in steals, by almost nine more scoring chances in R+T, and by 7% in winning percentage away from home.

 

PiRate Pick: Louisville 77  Duke 70

 

Check back Thursday, April 4 for our Final 4 Preview

March 20, 2011

Sunday’s NCAA Tournament PiRate Criteria Ratings

All Times EDT

Number in (Parentheses) indicates PiRate Criteria Rating

For a detailed explanation of the PiRate Criteria Rating, click on the following link:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/bracketnomics-505-2011-edition/

 

12:15 PM on CBS

North Carolina (15) vs. Washington (13)

CBS gives you the most exciting 3rd round game to start off your Sunday.  These teams can get up and down the floor and score quickly.  We expect it to be more like the late 1960’s when North Carolina and Davidson met in the NCAA Tournament for a couple of historic games.

 

The Tar Heels are the slight favorite, but this game could go either way.  When you have two teams capable of topping 85 points, it comes down to which team can control the boards and force more turnovers.  North Carolina should win the battle on the boards, but Washington should win the turnover battle and force more steals.

 

We thought about taking the Huskies, but Coach Roy Williams has a long history of getting to the Sweet 16, while Coach Lorenzo Romar has a shorter history of doing so.

 

We think this will still be undecided with five minutes to go, but the Tar Heels have three go-to guys that can win this game (Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes, John Henson, while UW has two (Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning).  Three to two odds makes for a 60% chance that nothing will be finer in Carolina today.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 83  Washington 76

 

2:45 PM on CBS

Duke (15) vs. Michigan (Elim)

Shortly after we released the 68-team preview last week, the news that Kyrie Irving was ready to play once again changed Duke’s criteria score.  We have not set way to add points in cases like this; we have to make a semi-educated guess.  Before Irving went down to injury, Duke was 8-0, outscoring opponents by a score of 89-66.  He returned to play against Hampton, so in the nine games in which he has contributed, Duke’s average scoring margin is 89-64.  We figure Irving’s presence makes Duke seven to 10 points better.  That would place their PiRate Criteria score right there with Kansas for the top spot.

 

Michigan caught the biggest break in this tournament.  They played a Tennessee team that completely quit once a six-point Volunteer lead was wiped away.  The Wolverines outscored Tennessee 52-16 the final 24 minutes of their game.

 

Duke will not wilt if Michigan erases a six-point Blue Devil lead.  This team is better than last year’s national champion with Irving teaming up with Nolan Smith.  Last year’s champion was a little stronger inside, but with Irving, Smith, Kyle Singler, Mason and Miles Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, Seth Curry, and Andre Dawkins, Coach Mike Krzyzewski has too many weapons to completely stop.

 

Michigan relies on three-point shooting and great penetration.  Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway, Junior can take the maize and blue on their shoulders and make life miserable for opposing teams that are not overly aggressive defensively.  Duke is not one of those teams.

 

The Blue Devils will stifle the Michigan offense and score enough fast break points and second-chance points to win this one by double digits.

 

Prediction: Duke 76  Michigan 61

 

5:15 PM on CBS

Ohio State (21) vs. George Mason (8)

George Mason has done it before.  The Colonials knocked off Connecticut and North Carolina among others when they made their historic run to the Final Four in 2006.  This GMU team has more talent and almost as much experience, making the Colonials a legitimate contender to advance to the Sweet 16.

 

One problem for GMU: they are facing the team with the second best PiRate Criteria score.  Ohio State has too much firepower for Coach Jim Larranaga to pull magic out of a hat again.

 

Jared Sullinger is too strong and quick inside for the Colonials to stop, and Ryan Pearson will not be able to have a big game against the Buckeyes’ inside defense.  Jon Diebler and William Buford will see a lot of open looks from outside, and we cannot see both having an off day.

 

Prediction: Ohio State 74  George Mason 59

 

6:10 PM on TNT

Texas (18) vs. Arizona (3)

The Longhorns almost could not hold onto a big lead in their first game, while Arizona never could break away from Memphis in theirs.

 

We believe Texas will be more focused on this game and put together 40 minutes of total basketball.  The Longhorns present tough matchup problems with four starters that are great combo inside-outside players.  When they get their mind into the game, they can control a game at both ends of the floor.

 

Jordan Hamilton, Gary Johnson, Tristan Thompson, and Cory Joseph should be focused after watching a huge lead against Oakland almost evaporate entirely in the final minutes.

 

Arizona benefitted from playing a weak second-round opponent.  The Wildcats are not back to where they were in the Lute Olson days.  In Derrick Williams, they have an inside player that can dominate in the paint, but he can be neutralized by an opponent that gets the Wildcats into a running transition game.

 

Texas is not a pure running team, but the Longhorns can take advantage of the opportunities presented to them.  They will do so today.

 

Prediction: Texas 78  Arizona 65

 

7:10 PM on TBS

Purdue (16) vs. Virginia Commonwealth (-1)

Virginia Commonwealth coach Shaka Smart may be on the radar of two or three big-time coaching searches.  The second year coach has proven to be an excellent tournament tactician.

 

This Ram team does not figure to advance into the second week of the tournament, because in the past, teams with negative PiRate Critieria scores only made it to the Sweet 16 if their first two opponents had either negative scores or ELIM scores.

 

Purdue is only 11-6 since their 15-1 start.  If E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson do not combine for at least 35 points and 20 rebounds, the Boilermakers can be beaten.  We tend to believe that both stars will shine brightly today, and the lads from West Lafayette will be preparing for a mighty rivalry game later in the week.

 

Prediction: Purdue 73  V C U 64

 

7:45 PM on truTV

Syracuse (17) vs. Marquette (3)

When a conference places 11 teams in the Big Dance, it goes that there could be matchups of teams from that conference facing off in earlier rounds.  For the second time this weekend, the Big East has another “conference game” in the NCAA Tournament.

 

In the regular season, Marquette won a close game in Milwaukee, 76-70.  It was the fourth consecutive loss for the Orangemen following an 18-0 start.  Once the ‘Cuse got over their midseason swoon, they recovered to win six in a row before meeting the hot Huskies from Connecticut in the Big East Tournament.

 

Is a 14-loss team good enough to advance to the Sweet 16?  This is not your father’s Marquette teams.  Bo Ellis, Lloyd Walton, Dean Meminger, and Butch Lee are not walking through that door.  Al McGuire won’t be receiving a couple of technical fouls.

 

The Golden Eagles have one thing going for them; they know how to attack Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense.  They should get enough open looks to keep this game close, and if they can come close on the boards, they will be there at the end.

 

We expect a close game, but Syracuse will dictate the tempo.  Expect a lower-scoring game, with Syracuse’s Rick Jackson being just a little too much for Marquette’s interior defense to handle.

 

Prediction: Syracuse 68  Marquette 62

 

8:40 PM on TNT

Kansas (23) vs. Illinois (1)

Kansas remembers well what happened one year ago just down I-44 in OKC from where they are playing today.  The Jayhawks exited the tournament as one of the co-favorites to win it all, when Northern Iowa pulled off a major shocker.

 

We do not see KU meeting a similar fate in Tulsa today.  This team is loaded with talent, both inside and outside, and they have no major liabilities to be exploited.  Markieff and Marcus Morris are the best set of twins in college basketball since the Van Arsdale brothers (Dick and Tom) in the 1960’s. The two combine for 31 points and 15+ rebounds per game.  Off the bench, beefy Thomas Robinson provides extra inside punch.

 

The taller of the twins, Markieff can set up outside and bury the three-pointer or pass high-low to his brother.  It is hard to stop both, so opponents have to sell out to stop the inside threat first.

 

Illinois greatly underachieved this season.  The Illini should have contended for second place in the Big Ten and should have won five or six additional games.  A team talented enough to beat North Carolina by 12 points as well as Oakland, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, and Penn State handily also lost to Illinois-Chicago and Indiana.  For the Illini to have a chance in this game, they will have to penetrate the KU defense and force fouls.  For two reasons, we do not believe that will work today.  First, the officiating in this tournament has been very relaxed.  Second, we do not believe Illinois point guard Demetri McCamey can get through the front line of defense enough times to change the outcome of the game.

 

Prediction: Kansas 80  Illinois 68

 

9:45 PM on TBS

Notre Dame (11) vs. Florida State (2)

Too bad this one isn’t being played at the Fiesta Bowl.  These former football rivals will meet in Chicago where the St. Patrick’s Day celebrants should be back to normal today.  We consider Notre Dame to have a slight near-home court advantage, and the Irish really do not need anything extra to win this game.

 

Florida State gets extra points for Chris Singleton’s return from injury.  However, Singleton scored just five points and grabbed just two rebounds in 16 minutes of play in the win over Texas A&M; this was not very Kyrie Irving-like.  He is not ready to take the Seminoles on his shoulders and lead them into the Sweet 16.

 

Prediction: Notre Dame 65  Florida State 59

 

Coming Later This Week: We will update the PiRate Criteria Scores based on the two games each of the Sweet 16 teams playe

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