The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 18, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

NCAA First Four

Team 1Team 2Spread
Mount St. Mary’sTexas Southern1.3
DrakeWichita St.2.0
Norfolk St.Appalachian St.0.3
UCLAMichigan St.0.7

March 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings Final Bracketology Prediction

Date3/14/2021FINAL
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorIllinoisMichigan
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaHouston
3Oklahoma St.ArkansasKansasTexas
4West VirginiaPurdueVirginiaFlorida St.
5TennesseeVillanovaCreightonTexas Tech
6ColoradoUSCLSUMissouri
7BYUOklahomaOregonClemson
8ConnecticutSan Diego St.WisconsinFlorida
9Virginia TechLoyola (Chi.)Georgia TechNorth Carolina
10RutgersSt. BonaventureMarylandVCU
11LouisvilleMichigan St.UCLASyracuseUtah St.Drake
12Oregon St.GeorgetownNorth TexasWinthrop
13Ohio ULibertyUNCGUCSB
14ColgateMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.DrexelGrand CanyonIona
16Oral RobertsHartfordNorfolk St.Mount St. Mary’sTexas SouthernAppalachian St.

1st Four Out

69Wichita St.
70Colorado St.
71Saint Louis
72Boise St.

1st 4 Games

11 UCLA vs. 11 Drake

11 Syracuse vs. 11 Utah St.

16 Norfolk St. vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s

16 Texas Southern vs. 16 Appalachian St.

Sunday Morning Bracketology

Preliminary to Final Prediction

The PiRates have been busy these last 12 hours rearranging the seed lines and replacing unfortunate at-large teams that were bumped twice yesterday, as Georgetown and Oregon State crashed the Dance party with impressive wins.

Five games remain to be played before the regular season comes to an end, and all five games could affect the final seed lines:

In the first game today, if Colgate beats Loyola of Maryland, the Raiders could move up one line, but the bigger possibility is the movement of more than a dozen seeds if Loyola pulls the upset. Colgate figures to be a 13 or 14 seed, but Loyola would be a 16 seed with a win. Colgate is somewhat of another issue, because the Raiders are a Top 10 team according to the NET Ratings, but they did so by facing no serious competition from top 100 teams. We believe the Committee will overrule their own criteria and send Colgate down the seed line.

In game two, St. Bonaventure faces VCU for the Atlantic 10 Championship. We believe both teams are locks to get into the Dance, but the winner and loser could be one seed apart. Or, the Committee might decide that this game doesn’t really matter and keep the two teams where they have them today. This is highly likely, and we are using that belief in our second to last seeding prediction. The Committee will be faced with an afternoon headache, where many teams will have to be shifted to accommodate a potential bid-thief. In fact, they will have two different brackets and keep one depending on what happens later in the day.

LSU and Alabama face off in what brings up memories of the Game of the Year in football, but this is the SEC Basketball Championship Game. Alabama has a sliver of hope to move to the 1-seed line with an impressive win and an Illinois loss in the Big Ten, but we believe they are probably locked in at the 2-seed line. However, should LSU pull off the upset, the Tigers might move up one line and knock somebody back a line.

The big mover and shaker game is the American Athletic Conference Championship Game this afternoon. Cincinnati could steal a bid away with an upset of Houston, and at the same time knock the Cougars down a spot in the seedings. If Houston wins, then everything is copacetic.

Because it will be the last game of the day, and both teams are rather secure in their destinies, we believe the Big Ten Conference Championship Game will be meaningless toward the final seedings. Illinois has done the work to earn a 1-seed, while Ohio State has worked their way back to a 2-seed. The Committee will not have time to alter their brackets at this point, so they will choose to ignore this game.

The important news then is who are the teams on the Bubble? Rather than announce 68 teams like in other years, the Committee will announce 72 teams, the regular 68 plus four alternates in case teams like Virginia and Kansas cannot field rosters for the tournament.

As we see it this morning, Drake is the last team in the field, currently an 11-seed looking at a First Four game against possibly UCLA. Should Cincinnati upset Houston today, the Bearcats would be looking at a 12 or 13-seed, and Drake would be dropped to the alternate pool, while Boise St. or Saint Louis would be dropped from the alternate pool to the NIT. Other teams just on the thin line include Utah State and Syracuse, two teams we show in the First Four, and Wichita State and Colorado State, two teams we show in the alternate list.

The First Four seedings moved from 12 to 11 last night when Georgetown and Oregon State kicked through the Dance hall door. The Hoyas and Beavers cannot be 11 seeds. We slotted them both on the 12-seed line, but we are not totally convinced yet that they will remain there. Doing a little research, the last time a power conference team with a similar record crashed the party like this, Georgia earned a 14-seed. Because teams like Colgate, Winthrop, UNCG, and UCSB are capable of moving up a line, there is a chance for chaos if Cincinnati wins today, because the Bearcats are not deserving of a 12-seed and maybe not even a 13-seed.

Here is how our field looks this morning with Cincinnati not in the Tournament.

Date3/14/2021Morning Edition
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorIllinoisMichigan
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaHouston
3Oklahoma St.ArkansasKansasTexas
4West VirginiaPurdueFlorida St.Virginia
5TennesseeVillanovaCreightonUSC
6ColoradoTexas TechLSUMissouri
7BYUOklahomaOregonConnecticut
8ClemsonSan Diego St.WisconsinFlorida
9Virginia TechLoyola (Chi.)RutgersNorth Carolina
10Georgia TechSt. BonaventureMarylandVCU
11LouisvilleMichigan St.UCLASyracuseUtah St.Drake
12Oregon St.GeorgetownUCSBWinthrop
13Ohio ULibertyUNCGNorth Texas
14ColgateMorehead St.Abilene ChristianE. Washington
15Cleveland St.DrexelGrand CanyonIona
16Oral RobertsHartfordNorfolk St.Mount St. Mary’sTexas SouthernAppalachian St.

Four Alternates

69Wichita St.
70Colorado St.
71Saint Louis
72Boise St.

Note: We have already begun putting our

Bracketnomics Data into a spreadsheet, and we will

have it completed late tonight. We will then spend

Monday looking at the data and be ready to reveal

our opinions on the field on Tuesday. Look for our

annually most read post to publish

Tuesday afternoon, approximately 3 PM Eastern

Daylight Time, giving you plenty of time to read and

then fill out the brackets in your competitions.

March 8, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/8/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaBaylorMichiganIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaWest Virginia
3HoustonArkansasKansasVillanova
4PurdueTexasOklahoma St.Florida St.
5VirginiaTexas TechUSCTennessee
6CreightonColoradoClemsonOklahoma
7OregonMissouriWisconsinFlorida
8BYULSUVirginia TechConnecticut
9RutgersSan Diego St.Loyola (Chi.)North Carolina
10MarylandSt. BonaventureUCLALouisville
11Georgia TechMichigan St.VCUColorado St.
12Western Ky.ToledoBoise St.DrakeWichita St.Xavier
13UCSBWinthropLibertyColgate
14UNCGS. Dakota St.Morehead St.Abilene Chr.
15E. WashingtonGeorgia St.SienaCleveland St.
16NortheasternBryantGrand CanyonHartfordNorfolk St.Prairie View A&M

Teams in Bold have secured automatic bids

The Bad Side of the Bubble

69Ole Miss
70Syracuse
71Utah St.
72Saint Louis
73Seton Hall
74SMU
75St. John’s
76North Carolina St.

Bracketnomics Tutorial Release Coming This Week!

Until recently, when our breakthrough Sabertooth Baseball Game went viral due to a Facebook post that we still do not know who the benevolent benefactor of great news is, our most popular annual activity here on the PiRate Ratings has been “Bracketnomics.”

For years, we have used technical statistics and other data to isolate the real March Madness contenders from the pretenders and to eliminate certain higher seeds due to their possessing “uh-oh” stats that show them ripe for a quick upset.

We were all set to debut our latest evolution of Bracketnomics last year, until Covidnomics defeated all sports in March of 2020. It gave us extra time to scour our resources and to look for more trends, in addition to the tried and true methods we have used for years.

Coming Friday, we will release our Bracketnomics 2021 Tutorial, so you can have the weekend to look it over and use the information the best way you know how. Please let the best way you know how be a method that involves no financial risk.

The PiRate Ratings personal creation of “R+T” Rating, schedule strength, and the Four Factors still hold considerable importance, but the handicapping of each data point has changed. Other sets of data added to the mix should let you clearly see which teams have the look of past national champions, Final Four participants, and even Cinderella Mid-Majors that might be ready to wear the slipper until there are just eight teams remaining.

Oh, and if you haven’t heard about our advanced analytics tabletop baseball game that went viral over the weekend, you can check it out at our sister site: https://sabertoothbaseball.wordpress.com and order a game at https://sabertooth-baseball.square.site , or click the link in the WordPress site.

March 5, 2021

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date3/5/2021
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaMichiganBaylorIllinois
2Ohio St.AlabamaIowaWest Virginia
3VillanovaKansasArkansasHouston
4PurdueFlorida St.TexasOklahoma St.
5Texas TechCreightonVirginiaUSC
6ColoradoOklahomaTennesseeWisconsin
7MissouriClemsonFloridaBYU
8OregonVirginia TechSan Diego St.LSU
9MarylandLoyola (Chi.)RutgersUCLA
10ConnecticutNorth CarolinaLouisvilleSt. Bonaventure
11Georgia TechVCUColorado St.Boise St.
12Western Ky.ToledoDrakeMichigan St.XavierWichita St.
13UCSBColgateBelmontWinthrop
14LibertyUNCGAbilene ChristianS. Dakota St.
15E. WashingtonSienaVermontCleveland St.
16Grand CanyonJames MadisonTexas St.WagnerPrairie ViewNorfolk St.

The Outside Looking In

69Saint Louis
70Seton Hall
71SMU
72Mississippi
73Syracuse
74Utah State
75Duke
76Stanford
77Indiana
78Louisiana Tech
79Memphis
80St. John’s

March 11, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 11, 2020

Date

3/11/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Dayton

Baylor

2

San Diego St.

Florida St.

Villanova

Creighton

3

Duke

Kentucky

Seton Hall

Michigan St.

4

Maryland

Louisville

Oregon

Wisconsin

5

Ohio St.

Auburn

Butler

BYU

6

West Virginia

Iowa

Penn St.

Virginia

7

Illinois

Colorado

Michigan

Arizona

8

Houston

Providence

LSU

Saint Mary’s

9

USC

Marquette

Oklahoma

Rutgers

10

Arizona St.

Florida

Indiana

Utah St.

11

E. Tennessee St.

Stanford

Xavier

Wichita St.

Texas Tech

12

Yale

Liberty

S. F. Austin

Richmond

UCLA

13

Vermont

Akron

North Texas

New Mexico St.

14

Bradley

Belmont

Hofstra

Colgate

15

UC-Irvine

N. Dakota St.

Little Rock

E. Washington

16

N. Kentucky

Winthrop

Siena

Prairie View

Robert Morris

N. C.  A&T

 

Last Four Byes:  Florida, Indiana, Stanford, and Xavier

Last Four IN: Wichita St., Texas Tech, Richmond, and UCLA

First Four OUT: North Carolina St., Cincinnati, Texas, and Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: Memphis, Northern Iowa, Purdue, and Saint Louis

 

Note:  Starting with today’s Bracketology and continuing for our final two Bracketology predictions (Friday and Sunday), our seed lines now reflect our beliefs that the NCAA Selection Committee will have some political beliefs that alter seed lines.  For instance, we moved Virginia up one seed strictly because they are the defending champions, and we believe some members on the Selection Committee will lobby on their behalf to be moved higher up.  

We are closely monitoring Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference.  Any blip that comes DU’s way might move the Flyers down to the 2-seed line if an elite team like Duke, Michigan St., or Kentucky romps through their conference tournament.

 

March 6, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 6, 2020

Date

3/6/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Gonzaga

Baylor

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Florida St.

Villanova

Seton Hall

3

Duke

Maryland

Louisville

Michigan St.

4

Kentucky

Creighton

Oregon

Ohio St.

5

Penn St.

Auburn

Iowa

Butler

6

Wisconsin

BYU

Colorado

Michigan

7

West Virginia

Arizona

Illinois

Marquette

8

Houston

Virginia

Saint Mary’s

LSU

9

USC

Florida

Arizona St.

Providence

10

Texas Tech

Indiana

Oklahoma

Xavier

11

Rutgers

Stanford

E. Tennessee St.

Texas

UCLA

12

Yale

S. F. Austin

Liberty

Cincinnati

Utah St.

13

Vermont

Akron

North Texas

Loyola (Chi.)

14

New Mexico St.

Hofstra

Belmont

Colgate

15

Little Rock

Wright St.

UC-Irvine

S. Dakota St.

16

Montana

Radford

Prairie View

Siena

St. Francis (PA)

UNC Central

The Bubble

 

Last 4 IN: Texas, UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah St.

First 4 Out: North Carolina St., Wichita St., Richmond, Arkansas

Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Memphis, Purdue, Saint Louis

 

Needing a miracle but probably headed to the NIT: Northern Iowa, which lost by 21 to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Quarterfinal Round today.

March 5, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 5, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Alabama A&M

Grambling

-2.9

Alabama St.

Jackson St.

-0.5

Alcorn St.

Prairie View A&M

-5.4

American

Bucknell

6.1

Arizona

Washington St.

16.3

Arizona St.

Washington

4.0

Army

Lafayette

0.3

Austin Peay

Eastern Illinois

4.3

Bethune-Cookman

Florida A&M

5.2

Boston U

Navy

8.5

Colgate

Lehigh

13.9

Connecticut

Houston

-1.8

Drake

Illinois St.

2.3

Eastern Kentucky

Tennessee St.

-2.1

Eastern Washington

Idaho St.

13.0

Gardner-Webb

UNC Asheville

5.2

Green Bay

Oakland

3.5

Howard

Delaware St.

2.8

Idaho

Weber St.

-1.2

Illinois Chicago

Youngstown St.

3.8

Liberty

Stetson

17.1

Long Beach St.

Cal Poly

4.6

Longwood

Hampton

1.6

Loyola Marymount

San Diego

1.3

Maryland-Eastern Shore

Coppin St.

-3.4

Memphis

Wichita St.

1.7

Michigan

Nebraska

16.1

Montana

Northern Colorado

-0.7

Montana St.

Southern Utah

-1.1

Morgan St.

Norfolk St.

-1.2

Nevada

Wyoming

13.1

New Mexico St.

California Baptist

8.6

North Carolina Central

North Carolina A&T

3.5

North Florida

Lipscomb

8.6

Ohio St.

Illinois

7.2

Oregon

California

16.0

Oregon St.

Stanford

-0.8

Portland St.

Northern Arizona

4.7

Radford

Charleston Southern

12.1

San Diego St.

Air Force

18.3

Santa Clara

Portland

7.7

Southern

Texas Southern

2.7

UC Davis

Hawaii

3.1

UC Santa Barbara

Cal St. Fullerton

9.9

UNLV

Boise St.

0.4

Utah St.

New Mexico

9.0

Utah Valley

UMKC

1.8

Valparaiso

Evansville

8.2

Winthrop

South Carolina Upstate

11.8

 

Key TV Games on Thursday

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN

Ohio St.

Illinois

9:00 PM

ESPN

Memphis

Wichita St.

 

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT UPDATE

Wednesday’s Results

 

Mountain West Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Air Force

77

Fresno St.

70

New Mexico

79

San Jose St.

66

Wyoming

80

Colorado St.

74

 

 

Northeast Tournament

Quarterfinals

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Robert Morris

59

St. Francis (NY)

58

St. Francis (PA)

87

Bryant

61

Sacred Heart

61

Mount St. Mary’s

59

Long Island

73

Fairleigh-Dickinson

72

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament

1st Round

Winner

Score

Loser

Score

Tennessee St.

74

Morehead St.

67

Eastern Illinois

67

Jacksonville St.

61

 

 

Thursday’s Games

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament

Semifinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

1 Liberty (28-4)

4 Stetson (16-16)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

2 North Florida (21-11)

3 Lipscomb (15-15)

7:00 PM

ESPN+

 

Big South Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

at #1 Seed Radford

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

2 Winthrop (21-10)

7 USC Upstate (13-19)

12:00 PM

ESPN3

3 Gardner-Webb (15-15)

6 UNC-Asheville (15-15)

2:00 PM

ESPN3

1 Radford (20-10)

8 Chas. Southern (14-17)

6:00 PM

ESPN3

4 Longwood (14-17)

5 Hampton (13-18)

8:00 PM

ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

3 Green Bay (16-15)

6 Oakland (14-18)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

4 Illinois Chicago (15-17)

5 Youngstown (18-14)

8:00 PM

ESPN+

 

 

Patriot League Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

at Higher Seed’s Home Court

Home

Visitor

Time (ET)

TV

2 American (16-13)

7 Bucknell (13-19)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

3 Boston U (18-13)

6 Navy (14-15)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

4 Army (15-14)

5 Lafayette (18-11)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

1 Colgate (23-8)

8 Lehigh (11-20)

7:00 PM

Pat League Network

 

 

 

Mountain West Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

Las Vegas (Thomas & Mack Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

1 San Diego St. (28-1)

9 Air Force (12-19)

2:30 PM

CBSSN

4 UNLV (17-14)

5 Boise St. (19-11)

5:00 PM

CBSSN

2 Utah St. (23-8)

7 New Mexico (19-13)

9:00 PM

CBSSN

3 Nevada (19-11)

11 Wyoming (8-23)

11:30 PM

CBSSN

 

 

 

Missouri Valley Tournament (Arch Madness)

1st Round

March 5

St. Louis (Enterprise Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Drake (18-13)

9 Illinois St. (10-20)

7:00 PM

MVC TV Network

7 Valparaiso (16-15)

10 Evansville (9-22)

9:30 PM

MVC TV Network

 

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament

Quarterfinals

March 5

Evansville, IN (Ford Center)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

4 Eastern Kentucky (15-16)

5 Tennessee St. (18-14)

7:30 PM

ESPN+

3 Austin Peay (20-11)

6 Eastern Illinois (17-14)

9:30 PM

ESPN+

 

 

 

West Coast Tournament

1st Round

March 5

Las Vegas (Orleans Arena)

Team

Team

Time (ET)

TV

8 Loyola Mary. (10-20)

9 San Diego (9-22)

9:00 PM

BYUtv

7 Santa Clara (19-12)

10 Portland (9-22)

11:30 PM

BYUtv

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February 24, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 24, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:35 am

Date

2/21/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Kansas

Baylor

Gonzaga

San Diego St.

2

Dayton

Duke

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Creighton

Seton Hall

Louisville

Villanova

4

Kentucky

Oregon

Penn St.

West Virginia

5

Colorado

Auburn

Michigan St.

Butler

6

Iowa

Ohio St.

Michigan

Arizona

7

BYU

Marquette

Wisconsin

LSU

8

Houston

Illinois

Texas Tech

Arizona St.

9

Saint Mary’s

Florida

Virginia

Indiana

10

Rutgers

Xavier

Rhode Island

USC

11

Wichita St.

Utah St.

East Tennessee St.

Northern Iowa

12

Yale

Liberty

North Carolina St.

Oklahoma

Cincinnati

Providence

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

Belmont

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

South Dakota St.

16

Radford

Montana

Saint Peter’s

Prairie View

St. Francis (PA)

N. C. A&T

Bubble Teams Outside The Field (in order)

 

69

Richmond

70

Stanford

71

Georgetown

72

Arkansas

73

Alabama

74

Purdue

75

Memphis

76

UCLA

77

Mississippi St.

78

Minnesota

79

UNC Greensboro

80

Furman

 

Teams on the Rise

Akron

Arizona St.

Belmont

BYU

Creighton

Dayton

East Tennessee St.

Hofstra

Kansas

Kentucky

Michigan

Montana

New Mexico St.

Prairie View

Radford

St. Francis (PA)

Saint Peter’s

South Dakota St.

Stephen F. Austin

UCLA

UNC Greensboro

Utah St.

Villanova

Virginia

Wisconsin

 

Teams on the Decline

Butler

Marquette

Oklahoma

Penn St.

Purdue

Rider

Rutgers

South Carolina

USC

West Virginia

Winthrop

 

 

 

 

 

January 15, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 15, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:04 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Wednesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Butler

Seton Hall

4.8

South Carolina

Kentucky

-6.1

Syracuse

Boston College

10.3

Florida St.

Virginia

7.7

Georgetown

Creighton

1.7

Georgia

Tennessee

0.1

Duquesne

Fordham

16.0

North Carolina St.

Miami (Fla.)

6.8

East Carolina

Tulsa

-3.6

Saint Bonaventure

Massachusetts

6.8

Rutgers

Indiana

3.2

Saint Joseph’s

Rhode Island

-9.6

Baylor

Iowa St.

10.4

Marquette

Xavier

5.4

Oklahoma St.

Texas

4.0

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

13.0

Providence

St. John’s

3.4

Georgia Tech

Notre Dame

1.4

Alabama

Auburn

-2.3

Minnesota

Penn St.

2.8

Temple

Wichita St.

-1.6

Houston

SMU

8.0

Air Force

Boise St.

-0.7

Colorado St.

New Mexico

-0.1

UCLA

Stanford

-3.1

UNLV

San Jose St.

13.4

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