PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

NCAA First Four

Team 1	Team 2	Spread
Mount St. Mary’s	Texas Southern	1.3
Drake	Wichita St.	2.0
Norfolk St.	Appalachian St.	0.3
UCLA	Michigan St.	0.7

PiRate Ratings Final Bracketology Prediction

Date	3/14/2021	FINAL
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Illinois	Michigan
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	Houston
3	Oklahoma St.	Arkansas	Kansas	Texas
4	West Virginia	Purdue	Virginia	Florida St.
5	Tennessee	Villanova	Creighton	Texas Tech
6	Colorado	USC	LSU	Missouri
7	BYU	Oklahoma	Oregon	Clemson
8	Connecticut	San Diego St.	Wisconsin	Florida
9	Virginia Tech	Loyola (Chi.)	Georgia Tech	North Carolina
10	Rutgers	St. Bonaventure	Maryland	VCU
11	Louisville	Michigan St.	UCLA	Syracuse	Utah St.	Drake
12	Oregon St.	Georgetown	North Texas	Winthrop
13	Ohio U	Liberty	UNCG	UCSB
14	Colgate	Morehead St.	Abilene Christian	E. Washington
15	Cleveland St.	Drexel	Grand Canyon	Iona
16	Oral Roberts	Hartford	Norfolk St.	Mount St. Mary’s	Texas Southern	Appalachian St.

1st Four Out

69	Wichita St.
70	Colorado St.
71	Saint Louis
72	Boise St.

1st 4 Games

11 UCLA vs. 11 Drake

11 Syracuse vs. 11 Utah St.

16 Norfolk St. vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s

16 Texas Southern vs. 16 Appalachian St.

Sunday Morning Bracketology

Preliminary to Final Prediction

The PiRates have been busy these last 12 hours rearranging the seed lines and replacing unfortunate at-large teams that were bumped twice yesterday, as Georgetown and Oregon State crashed the Dance party with impressive wins.

Five games remain to be played before the regular season comes to an end, and all five games could affect the final seed lines:

In the first game today, if Colgate beats Loyola of Maryland, the Raiders could move up one line, but the bigger possibility is the movement of more than a dozen seeds if Loyola pulls the upset. Colgate figures to be a 13 or 14 seed, but Loyola would be a 16 seed with a win. Colgate is somewhat of another issue, because the Raiders are a Top 10 team according to the NET Ratings, but they did so by facing no serious competition from top 100 teams. We believe the Committee will overrule their own criteria and send Colgate down the seed line.

In game two, St. Bonaventure faces VCU for the Atlantic 10 Championship. We believe both teams are locks to get into the Dance, but the winner and loser could be one seed apart. Or, the Committee might decide that this game doesn’t really matter and keep the two teams where they have them today. This is highly likely, and we are using that belief in our second to last seeding prediction. The Committee will be faced with an afternoon headache, where many teams will have to be shifted to accommodate a potential bid-thief. In fact, they will have two different brackets and keep one depending on what happens later in the day.

LSU and Alabama face off in what brings up memories of the Game of the Year in football, but this is the SEC Basketball Championship Game. Alabama has a sliver of hope to move to the 1-seed line with an impressive win and an Illinois loss in the Big Ten, but we believe they are probably locked in at the 2-seed line. However, should LSU pull off the upset, the Tigers might move up one line and knock somebody back a line.

The big mover and shaker game is the American Athletic Conference Championship Game this afternoon. Cincinnati could steal a bid away with an upset of Houston, and at the same time knock the Cougars down a spot in the seedings. If Houston wins, then everything is copacetic.

Because it will be the last game of the day, and both teams are rather secure in their destinies, we believe the Big Ten Conference Championship Game will be meaningless toward the final seedings. Illinois has done the work to earn a 1-seed, while Ohio State has worked their way back to a 2-seed. The Committee will not have time to alter their brackets at this point, so they will choose to ignore this game.

The important news then is who are the teams on the Bubble? Rather than announce 68 teams like in other years, the Committee will announce 72 teams, the regular 68 plus four alternates in case teams like Virginia and Kansas cannot field rosters for the tournament.

As we see it this morning, Drake is the last team in the field, currently an 11-seed looking at a First Four game against possibly UCLA. Should Cincinnati upset Houston today, the Bearcats would be looking at a 12 or 13-seed, and Drake would be dropped to the alternate pool, while Boise St. or Saint Louis would be dropped from the alternate pool to the NIT. Other teams just on the thin line include Utah State and Syracuse, two teams we show in the First Four, and Wichita State and Colorado State, two teams we show in the alternate list.

The First Four seedings moved from 12 to 11 last night when Georgetown and Oregon State kicked through the Dance hall door. The Hoyas and Beavers cannot be 11 seeds. We slotted them both on the 12-seed line, but we are not totally convinced yet that they will remain there. Doing a little research, the last time a power conference team with a similar record crashed the party like this, Georgia earned a 14-seed. Because teams like Colgate, Winthrop, UNCG, and UCSB are capable of moving up a line, there is a chance for chaos if Cincinnati wins today, because the Bearcats are not deserving of a 12-seed and maybe not even a 13-seed.

Here is how our field looks this morning with Cincinnati not in the Tournament.

Date	3/14/2021	Morning Edition
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Illinois	Michigan
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	Houston
3	Oklahoma St.	Arkansas	Kansas	Texas
4	West Virginia	Purdue	Florida St.	Virginia
5	Tennessee	Villanova	Creighton	USC
6	Colorado	Texas Tech	LSU	Missouri
7	BYU	Oklahoma	Oregon	Connecticut
8	Clemson	San Diego St.	Wisconsin	Florida
9	Virginia Tech	Loyola (Chi.)	Rutgers	North Carolina
10	Georgia Tech	St. Bonaventure	Maryland	VCU
11	Louisville	Michigan St.	UCLA	Syracuse	Utah St.	Drake
12	Oregon St.	Georgetown	UCSB	Winthrop
13	Ohio U	Liberty	UNCG	North Texas
14	Colgate	Morehead St.	Abilene Christian	E. Washington
15	Cleveland St.	Drexel	Grand Canyon	Iona
16	Oral Roberts	Hartford	Norfolk St.	Mount St. Mary’s	Texas Southern	Appalachian St.

Four Alternates

69	Wichita St.
70	Colorado St.
71	Saint Louis
72	Boise St.

Note: We have already begun putting our

Bracketnomics Data into a spreadsheet, and we will

have it completed late tonight. We will then spend

Monday looking at the data and be ready to reveal

our opinions on the field on Tuesday. Look for our

annually most read post to publish

Tuesday afternoon, approximately 3 PM Eastern

Daylight Time, giving you plenty of time to read and

then fill out the brackets in your competitions.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/8/2021
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Baylor	Michigan	Illinois
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	West Virginia
3	Houston	Arkansas	Kansas	Villanova
4	Purdue	Texas	Oklahoma St.	Florida St.
5	Virginia	Texas Tech	USC	Tennessee
6	Creighton	Colorado	Clemson	Oklahoma
7	Oregon	Missouri	Wisconsin	Florida
8	BYU	LSU	Virginia Tech	Connecticut
9	Rutgers	San Diego St.	Loyola (Chi.)	North Carolina
10	Maryland	St. Bonaventure	UCLA	Louisville
11	Georgia Tech	Michigan St.	VCU	Colorado St.
12	Western Ky.	Toledo	Boise St.	Drake	Wichita St.	Xavier
13	UCSB	Winthrop	Liberty	Colgate
14	UNCG	S. Dakota St.	Morehead St.	Abilene Chr.
15	E. Washington	Georgia St.	Siena	Cleveland St.
16	Northeastern	Bryant	Grand Canyon	Hartford	Norfolk St.	Prairie View A&M

Teams in Bold have secured automatic bids

The Bad Side of the Bubble

69	Ole Miss
70	Syracuse
71	Utah St.
72	Saint Louis
73	Seton Hall
74	SMU
75	St. John’s
76	North Carolina St.

Bracketnomics Tutorial Release Coming This Week!

Until recently, when our breakthrough Sabertooth Baseball Game went viral due to a Facebook post that we still do not know who the benevolent benefactor of great news is, our most popular annual activity here on the PiRate Ratings has been “Bracketnomics.”

For years, we have used technical statistics and other data to isolate the real March Madness contenders from the pretenders and to eliminate certain higher seeds due to their possessing “uh-oh” stats that show them ripe for a quick upset.

We were all set to debut our latest evolution of Bracketnomics last year, until Covidnomics defeated all sports in March of 2020. It gave us extra time to scour our resources and to look for more trends, in addition to the tried and true methods we have used for years.

Coming Friday, we will release our Bracketnomics 2021 Tutorial, so you can have the weekend to look it over and use the information the best way you know how. Please let the best way you know how be a method that involves no financial risk.

The PiRate Ratings personal creation of “R+T” Rating, schedule strength, and the Four Factors still hold considerable importance, but the handicapping of each data point has changed. Other sets of data added to the mix should let you clearly see which teams have the look of past national champions, Final Four participants, and even Cinderella Mid-Majors that might be ready to wear the slipper until there are just eight teams remaining.

Oh, and if you haven’t heard about our advanced analytics tabletop baseball game that went viral over the weekend, you can check it out at our sister site: https://sabertoothbaseball.wordpress.com and order a game at https://sabertooth-baseball.square.site , or click the link in the WordPress site.

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	3/5/2021
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Gonzaga	Michigan	Baylor	Illinois
2	Ohio St.	Alabama	Iowa	West Virginia
3	Villanova	Kansas	Arkansas	Houston
4	Purdue	Florida St.	Texas	Oklahoma St.
5	Texas Tech	Creighton	Virginia	USC
6	Colorado	Oklahoma	Tennessee	Wisconsin
7	Missouri	Clemson	Florida	BYU
8	Oregon	Virginia Tech	San Diego St.	LSU
9	Maryland	Loyola (Chi.)	Rutgers	UCLA
10	Connecticut	North Carolina	Louisville	St. Bonaventure
11	Georgia Tech	VCU	Colorado St.	Boise St.
12	Western Ky.	Toledo	Drake	Michigan St.	Xavier	Wichita St.
13	UCSB	Colgate	Belmont	Winthrop
14	Liberty	UNCG	Abilene Christian	S. Dakota St.
15	E. Washington	Siena	Vermont	Cleveland St.
16	Grand Canyon	James Madison	Texas St.	Wagner	Prairie View	Norfolk St.

The Outside Looking In

69	Saint Louis
70	Seton Hall
71	SMU
72	Mississippi
73	Syracuse
74	Utah State
75	Duke
76	Stanford
77	Indiana
78	Louisiana Tech
79	Memphis
80	St. John’s

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 11, 2020

Date	3/11/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Dayton	Baylor
2	San Diego St.	Florida St.	Villanova	Creighton
3	Duke	Kentucky	Seton Hall	Michigan St.
4	Maryland	Louisville	Oregon	Wisconsin
5	Ohio St.	Auburn	Butler	BYU
6	West Virginia	Iowa	Penn St.	Virginia
7	Illinois	Colorado	Michigan	Arizona
8	Houston	Providence	LSU	Saint Mary’s
9	USC	Marquette	Oklahoma	Rutgers
10	Arizona St.	Florida	Indiana	Utah St.
11	E. Tennessee St.	Stanford	Xavier	Wichita St.	Texas Tech
12	Yale	Liberty	S. F. Austin	Richmond	UCLA
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	New Mexico St.
14	Bradley	Belmont	Hofstra	Colgate
15	UC-Irvine	N. Dakota St.	Little Rock	E. Washington
16	N. Kentucky	Winthrop	Siena	Prairie View	Robert Morris	N. C.  A&T

 

Last Four Byes:  Florida, Indiana, Stanford, and Xavier

Last Four IN: Wichita St., Texas Tech, Richmond, and UCLA

First Four OUT: North Carolina St., Cincinnati, Texas, and Mississippi St.

Next Four Out: Memphis, Northern Iowa, Purdue, and Saint Louis

 

Note:  Starting with today’s Bracketology and continuing for our final two Bracketology predictions (Friday and Sunday), our seed lines now reflect our beliefs that the NCAA Selection Committee will have some political beliefs that alter seed lines.  For instance, we moved Virginia up one seed strictly because they are the defending champions, and we believe some members on the Selection Committee will lobby on their behalf to be moved higher up.  

We are closely monitoring Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Conference.  Any blip that comes DU’s way might move the Flyers down to the 2-seed line if an elite team like Duke, Michigan St., or Kentucky romps through their conference tournament.

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For March 6, 2020

Date	3/6/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Gonzaga	Baylor	San Diego St.
2	Dayton	Florida St.	Villanova	Seton Hall
3	Duke	Maryland	Louisville	Michigan St.
4	Kentucky	Creighton	Oregon	Ohio St.
5	Penn St.	Auburn	Iowa	Butler
6	Wisconsin	BYU	Colorado	Michigan
7	West Virginia	Arizona	Illinois	Marquette
8	Houston	Virginia	Saint Mary’s	LSU
9	USC	Florida	Arizona St.	Providence
10	Texas Tech	Indiana	Oklahoma	Xavier
11	Rutgers	Stanford	E. Tennessee St.	Texas	UCLA
12	Yale	S. F. Austin	Liberty	Cincinnati	Utah St.
13	Vermont	Akron	North Texas	Loyola (Chi.)
14	New Mexico St.	Hofstra	Belmont	Colgate
15	Little Rock	Wright St.	UC-Irvine	S. Dakota St.
16	Montana	Radford	Prairie View	Siena	St. Francis (PA)	UNC Central

The Bubble

 

Last 4 IN: Texas, UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah St.

First 4 Out: North Carolina St., Wichita St., Richmond, Arkansas

Next 4 Out: Rhode Island, Memphis, Purdue, Saint Louis

 

Needing a miracle but probably headed to the NIT: Northern Iowa, which lost by 21 to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference Quarterfinal Round today.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For March 5, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Alabama A&M	Grambling	-2.9
Alabama St.	Jackson St.	-0.5
Alcorn St.	Prairie View A&M	-5.4
American	Bucknell	6.1
Arizona	Washington St.	16.3
Arizona St.	Washington	4.0
Army	Lafayette	0.3
Austin Peay	Eastern Illinois	4.3
Bethune-Cookman	Florida A&M	5.2
Boston U	Navy	8.5
Colgate	Lehigh	13.9
Connecticut	Houston	-1.8
Drake	Illinois St.	2.3
Eastern Kentucky	Tennessee St.	-2.1
Eastern Washington	Idaho St.	13.0
Gardner-Webb	UNC Asheville	5.2
Green Bay	Oakland	3.5
Howard	Delaware St.	2.8
Idaho	Weber St.	-1.2
Illinois Chicago	Youngstown St.	3.8
Liberty	Stetson	17.1
Long Beach St.	Cal Poly	4.6
Longwood	Hampton	1.6
Loyola Marymount	San Diego	1.3
Maryland-Eastern Shore	Coppin St.	-3.4
Memphis	Wichita St.	1.7
Michigan	Nebraska	16.1
Montana	Northern Colorado	-0.7
Montana St.	Southern Utah	-1.1
Morgan St.	Norfolk St.	-1.2
Nevada	Wyoming	13.1
New Mexico St.	California Baptist	8.6
North Carolina Central	North Carolina A&T	3.5
North Florida	Lipscomb	8.6
Ohio St.	Illinois	7.2
Oregon	California	16.0
Oregon St.	Stanford	-0.8
Portland St.	Northern Arizona	4.7
Radford	Charleston Southern	12.1
San Diego St.	Air Force	18.3
Santa Clara	Portland	7.7
Southern	Texas Southern	2.7
UC Davis	Hawaii	3.1
UC Santa Barbara	Cal St. Fullerton	9.9
UNLV	Boise St.	0.4
Utah St.	New Mexico	9.0
Utah Valley	UMKC	1.8
Valparaiso	Evansville	8.2
Winthrop	South Carolina Upstate	11.8

 

Key TV Games on Thursday

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Ohio St.	Illinois
9:00 PM	ESPN	Memphis	Wichita St.

 

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT UPDATE

Wednesday’s Results

 

Mountain West Tournament
1st Round
Winner	Score	Loser	Score
Air Force	77	Fresno St.	70
New Mexico	79	San Jose St.	66
Wyoming	80	Colorado St.	74

 

 

Northeast Tournament
Quarterfinals
Winner	Score	Loser	Score
Robert Morris	59	St. Francis (NY)	58
St. Francis (PA)	87	Bryant	61
Sacred Heart	61	Mount St. Mary’s	59
Long Island	73	Fairleigh-Dickinson	72

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament
1st Round
Winner	Score	Loser	Score
Tennessee St.	74	Morehead St.	67
Eastern Illinois	67	Jacksonville St.	61

 

 

Thursday’s Games

 

Atlantic Sun Tournament
Semifinals	March 5	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
1 Liberty (28-4)	4 Stetson (16-16)	7:00 PM	ESPN+
2 North Florida (21-11)	3 Lipscomb (15-15)	7:00 PM	ESPN+

 

Big South Tournament
Quarterfinals	March 5	at #1 Seed Radford
Team	Team	Time (ET)	TV
2 Winthrop (21-10)	7 USC Upstate (13-19)	12:00 PM	ESPN3
3 Gardner-Webb (15-15)	6 UNC-Asheville (15-15)	2:00 PM	ESPN3
1 Radford (20-10)	8 Chas. Southern (14-17)	6:00 PM	ESPN3
4 Longwood (14-17)	5 Hampton (13-18)	8:00 PM	ESPN3

 

 

Horizon League Tournament
Quarterfinals	March 5	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
3 Green Bay (16-15)	6 Oakland (14-18)	8:00 PM	ESPN+
4 Illinois Chicago (15-17)	5 Youngstown (18-14)	8:00 PM	ESPN+

 

 

Patriot League Tournament
Quarterfinals	March 5	at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home	Visitor	Time (ET)	TV
2 American (16-13)	7 Bucknell (13-19)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network
3 Boston U (18-13)	6 Navy (14-15)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network
4 Army (15-14)	5 Lafayette (18-11)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network
1 Colgate (23-8)	8 Lehigh (11-20)	7:00 PM	Pat League Network

 

 

 

Mountain West Tournament
Quarterfinals	March 5	Las Vegas (Thomas & Mack Center)
Team	Team	Time (ET)	TV
1 San Diego St. (28-1)	9 Air Force (12-19)	2:30 PM	CBSSN
4 UNLV (17-14)	5 Boise St. (19-11)	5:00 PM	CBSSN
2 Utah St. (23-8)	7 New Mexico (19-13)	9:00 PM	CBSSN
3 Nevada (19-11)	11 Wyoming (8-23)	11:30 PM	CBSSN

 

 

 

Missouri Valley Tournament (Arch Madness)
1st Round	March 5	St. Louis (Enterprise Center)
Team	Team	Time (ET)	TV
8 Drake (18-13)	9 Illinois St. (10-20)	7:00 PM	MVC TV Network
7 Valparaiso (16-15)	10 Evansville (9-22)	9:30 PM	MVC TV Network

 

 

 

Ohio Valley Tournament
Quarterfinals	March 5	Evansville, IN (Ford Center)
Team	Team	Time (ET)	TV
4 Eastern Kentucky (15-16)	5 Tennessee St. (18-14)	7:30 PM	ESPN+
3 Austin Peay (20-11)	6 Eastern Illinois (17-14)	9:30 PM	ESPN+

 

 

 

West Coast Tournament
1st Round	March 5	Las Vegas (Orleans Arena)
Team	Team	Time (ET)	TV
8 Loyola Mary. (10-20)	9 San Diego (9-22)	9:00 PM	BYUtv
7 Santa Clara (19-12)	10 Portland (9-22)	11:30 PM	BYUtv

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 24, 2020

Date	2/21/2020
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Kansas	Baylor	Gonzaga	San Diego St.
2	Dayton	Duke	Maryland	Florida St.
3	Creighton	Seton Hall	Louisville	Villanova
4	Kentucky	Oregon	Penn St.	West Virginia
5	Colorado	Auburn	Michigan St.	Butler
6	Iowa	Ohio St.	Michigan	Arizona
7	BYU	Marquette	Wisconsin	LSU
8	Houston	Illinois	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
9	Saint Mary’s	Florida	Virginia	Indiana
10	Rutgers	Xavier	Rhode Island	USC
11	Wichita St.	Utah St.	East Tennessee St.	Northern Iowa
12	Yale	Liberty	North Carolina St.	Oklahoma	Cincinnati	Providence
13	Stephen F. Austin	Vermont	North Texas	Akron
14	New Mexico St.	Colgate	Wright St.	Hofstra
15	Belmont	UC-Irvine	Little Rock	South Dakota St.
16	Radford	Montana	Saint Peter’s	Prairie View	St. Francis (PA)	N. C. A&T

Bubble Teams Outside The Field (in order)

 

69	Richmond
70	Stanford
71	Georgetown
72	Arkansas
73	Alabama
74	Purdue
75	Memphis
76	UCLA
77	Mississippi St.
78	Minnesota
79	UNC Greensboro
80	Furman

 

Teams on the Rise

Akron

Arizona St.

Belmont

BYU

Creighton

Dayton

East Tennessee St.

Hofstra

Kansas

Kentucky

Michigan

Montana

New Mexico St.

Prairie View

Radford

St. Francis (PA)

Saint Peter’s

South Dakota St.

Stephen F. Austin

UCLA

UNC Greensboro

Utah St.

Villanova

Virginia

Wisconsin

 

Teams on the Decline

Butler

Marquette

Oklahoma

Penn St.

Purdue

Rider

Rutgers

South Carolina

USC

West Virginia

Winthrop

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 15, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Wednesday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Butler	Seton Hall	4.8
South Carolina	Kentucky	-6.1
Syracuse	Boston College	10.3
Florida St.	Virginia	7.7
Georgetown	Creighton	1.7
Georgia	Tennessee	0.1
Duquesne	Fordham	16.0
North Carolina St.	Miami (Fla.)	6.8
East Carolina	Tulsa	-3.6
Saint Bonaventure	Massachusetts	6.8
Rutgers	Indiana	3.2
Saint Joseph’s	Rhode Island	-9.6
Baylor	Iowa St.	10.4
Marquette	Xavier	5.4
Oklahoma St.	Texas	4.0
Arkansas	Vanderbilt	13.0
Providence	St. John’s	3.4
Georgia Tech	Notre Dame	1.4
Alabama	Auburn	-2.3
Minnesota	Penn St.	2.8
Temple	Wichita St.	-1.6
Houston	SMU	8.0
Air Force	Boise St.	-0.7
Colorado St.	New Mexico	-0.1
UCLA	Stanford	-3.1
UNLV	San Jose St.	13.4