The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 13, 2022

PiRate Ratings FINAL Bracketology 2022

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:35 pm
DateFINAL
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaKansasBaylor
2KentuckyAuburnDukeVillanova
3TennesseePurdueTexas TechWisconsin
4UCLAIllinoisArkansasIowa
5ConnecticutHoustonProvidenceSaint Mary’s
6TexasLSUAlabamaColorado St.
7Michigan St.Ohio St.Boise St.USC
8TCUNorth CarolinaSeton HallSan Diego St.
9Murray St.MemphisCreightonMarquette
10San FranciscoIowa St.Loyola (Chi.)Virginia Tech
11Miami (Fla.)DavidsonRichmondIndiana
12South Dakota St.UABNotre DameWyomingTexas A&MMichigan
13VermontChattanoogaNew Mexico St.Akron
14Montana St.DelawareSaint Peter’sCal St. Fullerton
15YaleLongwoodGeorgia St.Colgate
16Jacksonville St.Norfolk St.Wright St.BryantTexas SouthernTexas A&M-CC

First 4 #16 Seeds: Wright St., Bryant, Texas Southern, Texas A&M–CC

Last 4 Byes: Iowa St., Miami (Fla.), Davidson, Indiana

Last 4 In: Notre Dame, Wyoming, Texas A&M, Michigan

First 4 Out: SMU, Xavier, Rutgers, Wake Forest,

Next 4 Out: BYU, VCU, Oklahoma, Saint Louis

Sunday Morning From The Hull

This early Sunday morning on the PiRate ship, we are hunkered down in the hull with a spreadsheet full of numbers. After New Mexico State, Arizona, and Cal St. Fullerton enjoyed late night trophy raisings in Las Vegas, we added the updated numbers to our Bracketology and narrowed the field of hopefuls down to 70 and then realized we had one more team that maybe should not have been sent to the SS NIT and one team that maybe shouldn’t be considered a lock for the Dance. So, we are sitting at 72 teams this morning. There are six teams at the bottom of the Bubble, and three of them will be happy around 6:30 PM EDT, while three will have to settle for a possible trip to the flowerless garden in the Big Apple rather than the Garden District in the Crescent City.

The six bubblers this morning (in alphabetical order) are: Rutgers, SMU, Texas A&M, Xavier, Wake Forest, and Wyoming. Let us add the last potential bid-stealer to this formula. If Richmond upsets Davidson today in the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game, the Spiders will receive an automatic bid, while Davidson receives an at-large invitation. That will reduce one spot at the bottom of the Bubble. Additionally, if Texas A&M upsets Tennessee in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game, the Aggies will move ahead of the Last Four in, as they would be guaranteed immunity from going to Dayton early next week. That would then take a team that currently has a bye and drop them into First Four purgatory.

By 3:00 PM EDT, we will know whether Richmond secured a spot in the Field of 68 and if Texas A&M is either an automatic bid-earner or Bubble team in the last decisions to be made. One of our fine Buckaroo lasses then pointed out that the outcome of the American Athletic Conference Championship Game between Houston and Memphis could affect the resume of SMU. A Memphis win might drag the Mustangs along in the Tiger draft. Additionally, the Iowa-Purdue Big Ten Championship Game tips off after 3:00 PM EDT, and both teams’ seed line could move one spot from this game. A Purdue loss and a Tennessee win could see the Boilermakers and Vols switching spots on the seed line. Iowa could possibly jump up one spot with a win, especially if Houston loses today.

Therefore, our final Bracketology prediction will go live only once the outcomes of the last two games are known. If both games are blowouts, we will go ahead and publish the final prediction before the games end. If either game is undecided until the closing minutes, then expect our final Bracketology to go live within 10 minutes of the final horn.

Coming Monday afternoon (Eastern Time Zone), our first installment of Bracketnomics for the 2022 NCAA Tournament will post here. This will be the explanation for how to go about picking your brackets using analytics that have been back-tested for maximum accuracy. We cannot guarantee you will win your bracket-picking contests, but we have a history of many of our subscribers doing that over the two decades this page has existed. And, you cannot beat the price of this information–only the time it takes you to read it.

There is one small warning for this year: Using the criteria we rely on, there is way too much parity in this forthcoming tournament. Usually, five to eight teams have Final Four worthy resumes. As of this morning, only two teams have such wonders. That means that two teams that do not have Final Four resumes are guaranteed to make this year’s Final Four. It also means that a team like Connecticut in both 2011 and 2014 might be poised to make a run to the National Championship Game, and it is a much higher probability that a Mid-Major makes the Final Four like Loyola, Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, and George Mason have done in this Century and Indiana State and Penn did in 1979. If you are wondering when was the last time a team from outside of a power conference actually won the tournament, it was UNLV in 1990, 32 years ago. Gonzaga has come close twice, losing in the final game to North Carolina and to Baylor. Butler came within a final shot rolling on the rim and falling off of winning against Duke.

This shapes up to be a very exciting NCAA Tournament this year. There will be a lot of interesting story lines, so today, we are informing you that you probably feel a bit off. By Thursday morning, you just won’t be able to get up and going, and you will have to call in sick to work with a 48-hour bug, forcing you to take sick days on Thursday and Friday. Being self-employed or a member of sports media through the years, I was fortunate not to have to get Madness Fever.

Today’s Conference Tournament Schedule

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM on ESPN2: Ivy League Championship Game

Princeton vs. Yale

1:00 PM on ESPN: Southeastern Conference Championship Game

Tennessee vs. Texas A&M

1:00 PM on CBS: Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game

Davidson vs. Richmond

3:15 PM on ESPN: Conference USA Championship Game

Houston vs. Memphis

3:30 PM on CBS: Big Ten Conference Championship Game

Iowa vs. Purdue

6:00 PM on CBS: Selection Sunday Show

March 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:00 am
Date3/7/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1ArizonaGonzagaBaylorAuburn
2KansasKentuckyDukePurdue
3WisconsinVillanovaTennesseeTexas Tech
4IllinoisProvidenceUCLAArkansas
5ConnecticutHoustonTexasAlabama
6Saint Mary’sLSUIowaOhio St.
7Colorado St.USCBoise St.Seton Hall
8Michigan St.Iowa St.Murray St.Marquette
9North CarolinaSan Diego St.TCUSan Francisco
10CreightonMichiganLoyola (Chi.)Davidson
11Miami (Fla.)MemphisXavierNotre Dame
12South Dakota St.North TexasWake ForestWyomingRutgersSMU
13IonaToledoChattanoogaVermont
14New Mexico St.PrincetonTowsonMontana St.
15Long Beach St.LongwoodJacksonville St.Colgate
16Georgia St.Purdue Ft. WayneBryantNicholls St.Norfolk St.Texas Southern

Last 4 Byes

Miami (Fla.)

Memphis

Xavier

Notre Dame

Last Four In

Wake Forest

Wyoming

Rutgers

SMU

First Four Out

VCU

Indiana

BYU

Dayton

Next Four Out

Texas A&M

Florida

Virginia Tech

Saint Louis

February 28, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:10 pm
Date2/28/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1ArizonaGonzagaBaylorKansas
2AuburnDukeKentuckyPurdue
3Texas TechVillanovaWisconsinTennessee
4ProvidenceIllinoisConnecticutUCLA
5TexasArkansasOhio St.Alabama
6HoustonSaint Mary’sUSCMichigan St.
7LSUMarquetteIowaIowa St.
8Colorado St.Boise St.Seton HallMurray St.
9WyomingTCUNotre DameXavier
10CreightonSan FranciscoWake ForestDavidson
11North TexasNorth CarolinaSan Diego St.Miami (Fla.)
12IonaSouth Dakota St.IndianaMemphisMichiganSMU
13ChattanoogaNew Mexico St.ToledoVermont
14TowsonTexas St.PrincetonNorthern Iowa
15Jacksonville St.Montana St.Long Beach St.Longwood
16ColgatePurdue Ft. WayneBryantNicholls St.Norfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69Loyola (Chi.)
70BYU
71Rutgers
72Florida
73VCU
74Virginia Tech
75Oregon
76St. Bonaventure
77Dayton
78Oklahoma
79Mississippi St.
80Belmont

February 25, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:28 pm
Date2/25/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaKansasAuburn
2KentuckyBaylorPurdueDuke
3Texas TechVillanovaTennesseeWisconsin
4IllinoisUCLAProvidenceTexas
5Ohio St.ConnecticutAlabamaHouston
6ArkansasLSUUSCMarquette
7IowaMichigan St.Iowa St.Saint Mary’s
8Colorado St.Boise St.XavierMurray St.
9Seton HallWyomingCreightonTCU
10Miami (Fla.)MichiganSan FranciscoWake Forest
11Notre DameDavidsonLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
12North TexasIonaSan Diego St.MemphisRutgersIndiana
13ChattanoogaSouth Dakota St.New Mexico St.Vermont
14ToledoWagnerTowsonMontana St.
15PrincetonTexas St.Long Beach St.Jacksonville St.
16Cleveland St.LongwoodColgateNicholls St.Norfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69SMU
70BYU
71VCU
72Oregon
73Dayton
74Florida
75Virginia
76St. Bonaventure
77UAB
78Virginia Tech
79Belmont
80Mississippi St.

February 21, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:40 pm
Date2/21/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaArizonaKansasAuburn
2KentuckyBaylorPurdueDuke
3Texas TechIllinoisVillanovaTennessee
4WisconsinUCLAProvidenceTexas
5AlabamaHoustonOhio St.Connecticut
6LSUArkansasMichigan St.USC
7MarquetteSaint Mary’sXavierColorado St.
8Boise St.Iowa St.Seton HallMurray St.
9WyomingIowaSan FranciscoTCU
10Wake ForestDavidsonSan Diego St.Creighton
11Notre DameMiami (Fla.)IndianaMemphisMichigan
12North TexasIonaChattanoogaLoyola (Chi.)North Carolina
13South Dakota St.New Mexico St.Northern IowaVermont
14ToledoWagnerTowsonMontana St.
15Jacksonville St.PrincetonTexas St.UC-Irvine
16Cleveland St.ColgateLongwoodNew OrleansNorfolk St.Texas Southern

Best of the Rest

69BYU
70SMU
71Florida
72Rutgers
73VCU
74Belmont
75Oklahoma
76Oregon

February 18, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:07 pm
Date2/18/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnArizonaKansas
2BaylorKentuckyPurdueVillanova
3DukeTexas TechWisconsinTennessee
4ProvidenceUCLAIllinoisTexas
5HoustonOhio St.AlabamaLSU
6ConnecticutMichigan St.ArkansasMarquette
7USCXavierColorado St.Saint Mary’s
8IowaMurray St.Seton HallBoise St.
9Wake ForestIowa St.Loyola (Chi.)Wyoming
10TCUMiami (Fla.)IndianaSan Francisco
11DavidsonNotre DameMemphisMichigan
12North TexasIonaSan Diego St.CreightonNorth CarolinaOklahoma
13ChattanoogaSouth Dakota St.OhioVermont
14New Mexico St.WagnerMontana St.Texas St.
15Cleveland St.LibertyYaleColgate
16Long Beach St.LongwoodUNC WilmingtonNorfolk St.New OrleansSouthern

Best of the Rest

69Belmont
70Oregon
71Florida
72BYU
73Rutgers
74UAB
75SMU
76Virginia Tech

February 14, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:55 pm
Date2/14/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnArizonaKentucky
2KansasPurdueBaylorDuke
3VillanovaTexas TechProvidenceWisconsin
4IllinoisUCLATennesseeHouston
5TexasMichigan St.MarquetteAlabama
6LSUOhio St.XavierConnecticut
7ArkansasUSCIowaSaint Mary’s
8Seton HallWyomingColorado St.TCU
9Wake ForestBoise St.Iowa St.Murray St.
10Loyola (Chi.)IndianaNotre DameMiami (Fla.)
11San FranciscoOklahomaDavidsonNorth Carolina
12North TexasIonaMichiganBYUMemphisBelmont
13ToledoNew Mexico St.ChattanoogaSouth Dakota St.
14VermontWagnerLibertyMontana St.Oregon
15Cleveland St.YaleTexas St.Long Beach St.
16ColgateUNC WilmingtonLongwoodNorfolk St.New OrleansTexas Southern

Best of the Rest

69Creighton
70San Diego St.
71SMU
72Oregon
73Florida
74Rutgers
75Kansas St.
76Saint Louis

PiRate Ratings Bracketology is an estimate of what we believe the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will do and not our own personal beliefs on which 68 teams deserve a spot in the field. If we chose the at-large teams, no power conference team in last place or four games under .500 in their league would be considered for the Big Dance, while teams like Rutgers and Virginia, which have proven themselves in conference play and hailing from a Power Conference would be given preference over teams behind them in the conference standings.

February 11, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/11/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnKentuckyArizona
2KansasPurdueBaylorDuke
3Texas TechHoustonWisconsinUCLA
4ProvidenceIllinoisVillanovaTexas
5MarquetteTennesseeAlabamaConnecticut
6ArkansasLSUMichigan St.Ohio St.
7USCXavierIowaSeton Hall
8TCUBoise St.Saint Mary’sIndiana
9Wake ForestMurray St.Iowa St.Wyoming
10Loyola (Chi.)Colorado St.San FranciscoOregon
11DavidsonOklahomaMiami (Fla.)BYUNorth Carolina
12North TexasToledoIonaNotre DameMichigan
13ChattanoogaNew Mexico St.VermontSouth Dakota St.
14WagnerLibertyNorthern IowaMontana St.
15Cleveland St.YaleAppalachian St.Long Beach St.
16ColgateLongwoodUNC WilmingtonNorfolk St.New OrleansSouthern

Best of the Rest

69Creighton
70Florida
71Belmont
72San Diego St.
73Saint Louis
74SMU
75UAB
76Mississippi State

February 7, 2022

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date2/7/2022
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1GonzagaAuburnPurdueKentucky
2KansasArizonaBaylorDuke
3Texas TechHoustonIllinoisProvidence
4Michigan St.WisconsinUCLAVillanova
5MarquetteTennesseeTexasOhio St.
6XavierLSUConnecticutAlabama
7USCIndianaSaint Mary’sIowa St.
8ArkansasTCUIowaBoise St.
9Wake ForestMurray St.San FranciscoWyoming
10Loyola (Chi.)BYUDavidsonSeton Hall
11Colorado St.OregonMiami (Fla.)North Carolina
12IonaNorth TexasNotre DameCreightonFloridaBelmont
13OhioChattanoogaVermontSouth Dakota St.
14New Mexico St.WagnerWeber St.Cal St. Fullerton
15LongwoodJacksonville St.Cleveland St.Yale
16ColgateUNC WilmingtonNorfolk St.Appalachian St.New OrleansSouthern

Best of the Rest

69San Diego St.
70Saint Louis
71Mississippi State
72SMU
73Washington St.
74Michigan
75Florida State
76Oklahoma
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