PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 20, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Albany	UMBC	5.4
Appalachian St.	South Alabama	4.0
Arizona	Oregon St.	12.8
Arizona St.	Oregon	-0.6
Binghamton	UMass Lowell	-2.6
BYU	Santa Clara	16.4
Cal Poly	UC Davis	-2.7
Cal St. Fullerton	UC Santa Barbara	-2.9
Charleston Southern	Campbell	0.9
Cleveland St.	Northern Kentucky	-6.7
Coastal Carolina	Troy	7.9
Colorado	USC	8.6
Delaware	Northeastern	-0.3
Denver	Oral Roberts	-8.2
Drexel	Hofstra	-4.4
Eastern Illinois	Murray St.	-4.6
Eastern Kentucky	Tennessee St.	-0.4
Eastern Washington	Sacramento St.	7.0
Gonzaga	San Francisco	18.1
Hampton	Gardner-Webb	-4.5
High Point	Presbyterian	0.5
Idaho	Northern Arizona	-2.2
Indiana St.	Northern Iowa	-3.3
Iowa	Ohio St.	1.6
Jacksonville	Lipscomb	4.0
Jacksonville St.	Southeast Missouri	9.8
James Madison	Elon	3.1
Liberty	North Florida	9.6
Morehead St.	Belmont	-11.9
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-10.9
New Hampshire	Hartford	3.4
NJIT	Stetson	2.7
North Alabama	Kennesaw St.	14.7
Northern Colorado	Southern Utah	7.2
Portland	Pepperdine	-5.3
Portland St.	Montana St.	3.7
Purdue Fort Wayne	Omaha	-0.5
Radford	UNC Asheville	11.3
Saint Mary’s	Loyola Marymount	16.1
Seattle	Grand Canyon	4.1
SIU-Edwardsville	Austin Peay	-9.9
South Carolina Upstate	Longwood	1.5
Southern Illinois	Evansville	9.4
Stony Brook	Vermont	-3.7
Temple	Connecticut	0.2
Tennessee Tech	UT Martin	0.7
Texas St.	Georgia Southern	6.1
Towson	William & Mary	5.2
UC Riverside	Hawaii	2.0
UT Arlington	Georgia St.	1.8
Utah	UCLA	2.3
Utah Valley	Cal St. Bakersfield	1.7
Washington	Stanford	2.7
Wichita St.	South Florida	11.1
Youngstown St.	Wright St.	-5.8

 

Thursday’s Key Games

Maybe the best top games of the week

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN	Iowa	Ohio St.
7:00 PM	ESPN+	Liberty	North Florida
7:00 PM	ESPNU	Stony Brook	Vermont
8:00 PM	ESPN+	Texas St.	Georgia Southern
9:00 PM	ESPN	Arizona St.	Oregon
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Colorado	USC

 

The Big Three Mid-Major Conference Games on TV Tonight

Liberty vs. North Florida–The winner most likely will end up with the number one seed in the Atlantic Sun Conference.  North Florida won the first contest 71-70 in a tight game that stayed close for 40 minutes.  At the time, Liberty was 19-1 and on the cusp of becoming ranked in the top 25.

North Florida’s starting lineup all average double figure points per game.  The Ospreys are by far the best shooting team in the A-Sun, both inside and outside the 3-point line and at the foul line.

Liberty has the best defense in the A-Sun, and the Flames go seven deep with little drop in talent.  With the A-Sun Tournament played on the home courts of the higher seeds, and with these two teams being the two powers of the league, the NCAA Tournament bid will be decided when these two probably play for a third time.  Home court advantage will probably decide it.  Liberty has the edge tonight, which should give the Flames the edge when they play again in a couple weeks.

 

Stony Brook vs. Vermont–Vermont has a 2 1/2 game lead over second place Stony Brook, so this is a must win for Stony Brook as far as the regular season conference race goes.  The conference tournament is played on the home courts of the higher seeds, so getting the #1 seed means home court advantage all the way to the Championship.

These are the top two programs in the league.  Vermont has won 14 of their last 15 games, and they have a conference scoring margin of +15.8 points per game.  The Catamounts dominate every important analytic statistic in the America East Conference.  

On paper, Stony Brook doesn’t have the resume of a team that looks capable of beating Vermont.  The Seawolves barely hold control of the number two spot in the league, but they have done something no other A-East team has done–they beat Vermont, and they did it in Burlington no less.

 

Texas St. vs. Georgia Southern–These two teams are still in contention for the regular season Sun Belt Conference Championship, as they are tied for third with 10-6 SBC records, just two games behind league leader Little Rock and one game behind second place Georgia St.  

Texas St. has one of the top players in the league in senior guard Nijel Pearson.  Pearson combines excellent long range shooting with the ability to get inside and score on the offensive side and fight for rebounds on the defensive end.  Earlier this season, he almost single-handily kept Texas St. in the game at Baylor, and the Bobcats scared the top-ranked team in Waco before finally losing by nine points.

Georgia Southern has a small but quick lineup, and the Eagles are fun to watch play.  This could be the most exciting game of the night.

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 30, 2020

Thursday’s Games

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Arkansas St.	Appalachian St.	1.2
Austin Peay	SIU-Edwardsville	16.4
BYU	Pepperdine	15.3
Cal Poly	Cal St. Fullerton	-1.5
Cal St. Northridge	UC Santa Barbara	-2.2
California	Oregon	-10.9
Campbell	High Point	11.7
Charleston Southern	Winthrop	-7.4
Cleveland St.	IUPUI	4.5
Denver	South Dakota	-6.0
Eastern Kentucky	UT Martin	2.9
Elon	Hofstra	-7.2
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	-3.8
Florida International	Marshall	2.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	10.5
Georgia St.	South Alabama	9.0
Illinois	Minnesota	5.2
Jacksonville	Florida Gulf Coast	8.2
Jacksonville St.	Tennessee St.	4.1
James Madison	Charleston	-5.2
Liberty	Kennesaw St.	27.3
Little Rock	Coastal Carolina	5.9
Longwood	Radford	-6.7
Louisiana Tech	Charlotte	10.2
Maryland	Iowa	4.9
Merrimack	St. Francis (NY)	6.1
Morehead St.	Southeast Missouri	5.7
Murray St.	Eastern Illinois	9.8
New Mexico St.	Cal St. Bakersfield	12.3
NJIT	North Alabama	3.4
North Florida	Stetson	10.6
Northern Colorado	Idaho St.	15.2
Pacific	Loyola Marymount	6.4
Portland St.	Montana	0.8
Presbyterian	South Carolina Upstate	1.9
Purdue Fort Wayne	North Dakota	0.9
Robert Morris	Bryant	2.6
Sacred Heart	Mount St. Mary’s	6.3
Saint Mary’s	Portland	20.3
San Diego	San Francisco	-5.2
Santa Clara	Gonzaga	-15.2
Southern Miss	Old Dominion	-2.1
Southern Utah	Weber St.	11.1
St. Francis (PA)	Central Connecticut	19.8
Stanford	Oregon St.	8.1
Tennessee Tech	Belmont	-15.6
Texas St.	Louisiana Monroe	12.5
Towson	UNC Wilmington	12.4
UC Davis	UC Irvine	-3.9
UC Riverside	Long Beach St.	8.2
UCLA	Colorado	-6.5
UNC Asheville	Gardner-Webb	2.4
USC	Utah	8.9
UT Arlington	Louisiana	12.2
UT Rio Grande Valley	Grand Canyon	2.3
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	11.3
UTSA	UAB	3.6
Wagner	Fairleigh Dickinson	1.6
Washington	Arizona	-3.0
Western Illinois	North Dakota St.	-8.7
William & Mary	Northeastern	0.9
Youngstown St	Illinois Chicago	2.8

 

The 10 Best Games On TV Tonight

 

Time (EST)	Network	Home	Visitor
7:00 PM	ESPN+	North Florida	Stetson
7:30 PM	FS1	Illinois	Minnesota
7:30 PM	ESPN+	Louisiana Tech	Charlotte
7:30 PM	ESPN+	Charleston Southern	Winthrop
8:30 PM	BTN	Maryland	Iowa
8:30 PM	CBSSN	BYU	Pepperdine
9:00 PM	Pac-12	California	Oregon
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Washington	Arizona
10:30 PM	CBSSN	Santa Clara	Gonzaga
11:00 PM	ESPN2	UCLA	Colorado

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 26, 2020

Sunday’s Games

Home	Visitor	Spread
California	Stanford	-8.5
Connecticut	Tulsa	4.3
Creighton	Xavier	6.2
Drake	Missouri St.	3.4
Fairfield	Canisius	1.5
Houston	South Florida	13.4
Indiana	Maryland	-0.6
Iona	Monmouth	0.6
Manhattan	Rider	-0.3
Minnesota	Michigan St.	-2.4
Northern Iowa	Loyola (Chi)	5.7
Northwestern	Ohio St.	-7.7
Oregon	UCLA	13.6
Saint Louis	Fordham	13.9
Saint Peter’s	Niagara	6.7
Siena	Quinnipiac	4.0
UNLV	San Diego St.	-9.1
Valparaiso	Evansville	10.0
Wake Forest	Virginia	-1.3

 

Saturday Was Upset City

There were more than two dozen upsets Saturday in Division 1 college basketball.  While your favorite team in a power conference may have won, and you’re thinking that you don’t remember many upsets, let us tell you that many of them occurred in the Mid-Major conferences.  Because most of the Mid-Major conferences will be one-bid leagues, and the conference tournament champion will be the representative in the Big Dance, our bracketology must undergo massive restructuring in the #13 through 16 seeds.

Thus, we will put out an update Bracketology later today, or basically as soon as we can clean up the mess and “un-muddle the water.”

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 19, 2020

Division 1 Basketball Games on Sunday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Canisius	Rider	-0.8
Chicago State	Cal St. Bakersfield	-15.8
Cincinnati	East Carolina	16.9
Fordham	Davidson	-7.4
Illinois State	Loyola (Chi.)	-4.9
Maine	Binghamton	1.8
Marist	Iona	-4.5
Niagara	Siena	-2.2
North Dakota State	North Dakota	7.4
Rutgers	Minnesota	3.9
South Dakota	South Dakota State	-1.3
Southern Illinois	Drake	0.1
UCLA	California	6.5
UMKC	Grand Canyon	3.3
Wake Forest	Boston College	6.7

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 15, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Wednesday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Butler	Seton Hall	4.8
South Carolina	Kentucky	-6.1
Syracuse	Boston College	10.3
Florida St.	Virginia	7.7
Georgetown	Creighton	1.7
Georgia	Tennessee	0.1
Duquesne	Fordham	16.0
North Carolina St.	Miami (Fla.)	6.8
East Carolina	Tulsa	-3.6
Saint Bonaventure	Massachusetts	6.8
Rutgers	Indiana	3.2
Saint Joseph’s	Rhode Island	-9.6
Baylor	Iowa St.	10.4
Marquette	Xavier	5.4
Oklahoma St.	Texas	4.0
Arkansas	Vanderbilt	13.0
Providence	St. John’s	3.4
Georgia Tech	Notre Dame	1.4
Alabama	Auburn	-2.3
Minnesota	Penn St.	2.8
Temple	Wichita St.	-1.6
Houston	SMU	8.0
Air Force	Boise St.	-0.7
Colorado St.	New Mexico	-0.1
UCLA	Stanford	-3.1
UNLV	San Jose St.	13.4

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 11, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Saturday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Auburn	Georgia	10.5
Boston College	Georgia Tech	-1.0
BYU	Portland	21.6
California	Washington	-7.9
Central Florida	Cincinnati	-2.2
Dayton	Massachusetts	20.5
Duke	Wake Forest	21.4
East Carolina	SMU	-8.4
Illinois	Rutgers	4.5
Indiana	Ohio St.	-2.5
Iowa St.	Oklahoma	2.4
Kansas	Baylor	10.1
Kentucky	Alabama	8.1
Loyola Marymount	Gonzaga	-17.4
LSU	Mississippi St.	8.6
Missouri	Florida	0.1
New Mexico	Air Force	9.7
North Carolina	Clemson	5.9
Northwestern	Nebraska	5.2
Notre Dame	Louisville	-3.3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	-3.5
Oregon	Arizona St.	11.4
Penn St.	Wisconsin	4.4
Saint Mary’s	Santa Clara	14.2
San Diego St.	Boise St.	12.5
Seton Hall	Marquette	6.3
St. John’s	DePaul	3.6
Stanford	Washington St.	11.0
TCU	Oklahoma St.	3.8
Temple	Tulane	11.7
Tennessee	South Carolina	9.6
Texas	Kansas St.	5.5
Tulsa	Houston	-5.7
UCLA	USC	-1.1
Utah St.	Nevada	7.0
Vanderbilt	Texas A&M	5.8
Villanova	Georgetown	6.2
Virginia	Syracuse	6.8
Virginia Tech	North Carolina St.	1.3
West Virginia	Texas Tech	6.3
Wyoming	UNLV	-5.5
Xavier	Creighton	4.1

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 2, 2020

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home	Visitor	Spread
Purdue	Minnesota	5.7
Michigan St.	Illinois	11.2
La Salle	Dayton	-11.3
Utah	Oregon St.	-0.1
Colorado	Oregon	-0.7
Portland	Gonzaga	-22.3
Washington	UCLA	10.3
Washington St.	USC	-2.8
Stanford	California	11.2
San Francisco	Saint Mary’s	-3.5

 

Note 1–We have been asked to explain the spread and when it is positive or negative.  When the spread is positive, the home team is favored by the amount shown.  When the spread is negative, the visiting team is favored by the amount shown.

Note 2–While we basically just issue spreads for games involving opponents from the power conferences or teams in the top 25 of the rankings, our ratings are easily usable for all Division 1 teams and all Division 1 games.  Simply subtract the visiting team power rating from the home team, and add 2 to 6 points for home court advantage.  For a typical mid-major or low-major team, the home court advantage will be 2.5 to 3.5 points. 

For a typical power conference team, the home court advantage will be 3 to 5 points.  For a team with an incredible home court advantage like Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Kansas, use 5 to 6 points.  These numbers can fluctuate based on the opponent.  For instance, if Kansas State visits Kansas, the home court advantage is reduced, because the trip is not taxing to the Wildcats.  To the contrary, if a school like Vermont hosts a team from the West Coast, their regular 3.5 point advantage might be moved to 4.5 or even 5 points.

Updated Ratings will be published Friday around Noon in the Eastern Time Zone.

Also, a new Bracketology list will be published Friday afternoon.

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 21-25, 2019

A Narrow Positive

We told you last week that the third week in November had historically been our most successful wagering week of the 21st Century.  Hopefully, this wasn’t a peak, but our selections did turn a small profit yet again on this favorable week of the season.

As far as the fourth week of November, our results over the last several years have been mixed.  Since this is a 5-Saturday November, the typical end of season rivalry games will be next week, so we are hoping that this week will be more typical of past third weeks.

Are you confused?  You shouldn’t be, because in the end, we highly encourage you not to wager based on any information you read here.  You pay nothing for these selections, so you should wager nothing on them.

This week our regular PiRate Picks will go big or go  home.  We are going with parlays that return big odds, and if we can win half of the  parlays, it will be a windfall imaginary profit.

We are also going to take our first 7-point, 3-game NFL Parlay of the season at 7-5 odds.

As for the Davey19 experimental system, we have seven selections against the spread.  Davey19 has been a somewhat positive experiment this year, and last week was another good one as the picks went 4-2-1.  It is experimental, so we cannot vouch for its continued success.  It is strictly mechanical and does not take into consideration the weather forecast and any injury news that came out after Monday’s PiRate Ratings were published.

 

PiRate Picks

Money Line Parlays

 

#1. 3-games at +219

USC over UCLA

UL-Monroe over Coastal Carolina

Stanford over California

 

 

#2. 4-games at +307

Michigan over Indiana

North Texas over Rice

San Jose St. over UNLV

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

 

 

#3. 5-games at +297

Oklahoma St. over West Virginia

Wake Forest over Duke

Louisville over Syracuse

Georgia St. over South Alabama

Georgia over Texas A&M

 

 

#4. 4-NFL games at +435

Houston over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Denver

Oakland over N.Y. Jets

New England over Dallas

 

 

#5. 3-Game, 7-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	Indianapolis	10.5	Indianapolis
New Orleans	Carolina	1.5	New Orleans
Dallas	New England	0.5	New England

 

 

Davey19 Picks

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wyoming	Colorado St.	6.5	Wyoming
Iowa	Illinois	15.5	Illinois
Ball St.	Kent St.	3.5	Kent St.
Virginia Tech	Pittsburgh	4	Virginia Tech
Nebraska	Maryland	4.5	Nebraska
Missouri	Tennessee	4	Tennessee
Fresno St.	Nevada	14	Nevada

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For September 26-30, 2019

After two dreadful weeks that saw our picks totally tank, we finally enjoyed a somewhat better week.  Right off the bat, we issued you this crazy money line parlay late in the week after receiving some “inside” information from a Sharp.  The 5-team parlay of:

Nebraska over Illinois

Boston College over Rutgers

Washington over BYU

Missouri over South Carolina

UAB over South Alabama

was right on the mark, and its payout was at +250, or $100 wagered would have resulted in cashing in a ticket of $350.  Remember, however, that we only issue these picks to you as entertainment for math nerds.  We NEVER wager real money on our selections.

The Davey19 experimental model enjoyed a modest $80 profit for the week, bringing the total for the year back to -$20.  Again, just like with all our recommendations, we do not encourage you wagering real money on this experimental, technical formula.

This week, we have spent more time devoted to the slate of games than any other week in the season to date, and there is good reason for it.  We have been trying to issue some steam picks, and isolate potential sandwich games.  In the process, we opened up our massive data bank of all the major books in North America waiting to pounce on changes in the numbers when we needed an extra half-point or one point.  In several instances, the swing didn’t come or it went the wrong way.  But, in others, we saw the public move the line in the direction we hoped they would move it, in other words, a lot of “square money” moving spreads an extra half-point in our favor.

Both our regular and experimental systems came up with a season high number of selections.  Let’s get down to business fun and reveal this week’s selections

 

PiRate Ratings Regular Selections

 

10-point Teaser	3-Team Parlay	10-12
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Michigan St.	Indiana	1	Michigan St.
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	14 1/2	Kansas St.
Ohio St.	Nebraska	7	Ohio St.

10-point Teaser	3-Team Parlay	10-12
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Baylor	13	Baylor
Iowa	Middle Tenn.	13 1/2	Iowa
Notre Dame	Virginia	2 1/2	Notre Dame

10-point Teaser	3-Team Parlay	10-12
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Nebraska	Ohio St.	56 1/2	Over
Maryland	Penn St.	51 1/2	Over
Oklahoma St.	Kansas St.	70 1/2	Under

13-point Teaser	4-Team Parlay	10-13
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
UCLA	Arizona	6 1/2	Arizona
Cincinnati	Marshall	17	Marshall
South Carolina	Kentucky	16	Kentucky
Oklahoma	Texas Tech	14	Oklahoma

Money Line	Single Games		Upset Picks
WIN	LOSE	Spread	Pick
Marshall	Cincinnati	+160	Marshall
Duke	Virginia Tech	+120	Duke
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.	+165	Kansas St.
Baylor	Iowa St.	+130	Baylor
North Carolina St.	Florida St.	+210	North Carolina St.

NFL Games

10-point Teaser	3-Team Parlay	10-12
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	14 1/2	Cincinnati
Baltimore	Cleveland	17	Cleveland
Chicago	Minnesota	12 1/2	Minnesota

10-point Teaser	3-Team Parlay	10-12
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Green Bay	Philadelphia	36	Over
Houston	Carolina	57 1/2	Under
Cleveland	Baltimore	55 1/2	Under

10-point Teaser	3-Team Parlay	10-12
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Washington	NY Giants	59 1/2	Under
Kansas City	Detroit	44 1/2	Over
New England	Buffalo	32	Over

10-point Teaser	3-Team Parlay	10-12
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Atlanta	Tennessee	56	Under
Dallas	New Orleans	37	Over
Minnesota	Chicago	48 1/2	Under

 

 

Davey19

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
California	Arizona St.	5	Arizona St.
Utah	Washington St.	6	Washington St.
Virginia Tech	Duke	3	Duke
Florida St.	North Carolina St.	7	North Carolina St.
Minnesota	Purdue	1	Minnesota
Stanford	Oregon St.	4 1/2	Oregon St.
Ohio St.	Nebraska	17 1/2	Nebraska
Cincinnati	Marshall	4	Marshall
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	16	Coastal Carolina

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Washington	USC	61	Under
Arizona St.	California	42	Under
Auburn	Mississippi St.	47 1/2	Under
Indiana	Michigan St.	44 1/2	Under
Rutgers	Michigan	49	Under
Old Dominion	East Carolina	48	Under
Wisconsin	Northwestern	47	Under
Central Michigan	Western Michigan	60	Under
Indianapolis	Oakland	44 1/2	Over

Note: Check back with us on Friday.  We just may have another special or specials for you, but nothing like what we have issued in the past.  We are looking at a money line parlay or two that could produce odds of better than +500, and another one at odds of better than +1500!  And, best of all, neither the Miami Dolphins nor the UMass Minutemen have to win to make these selections pay off.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

There was a time when the Pac-12 Conference, or one of its predecessor leagues like the Pac-10, Pac-8, Athletic Association of Western Universities, or Pacific Coast Conference was the premier football conference in America.  Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, California, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State have all been elite programs at some point in history.

In recent years, the league has failed to produce a dominant team like the 1954 UCLA Bruins, the 1972 USC Trojans or the 1991 Washington Huskies.  Oregon and Washington have fielded really good teams in this decade, but no Pac-12 team has finished number one since USC won in 2004 with Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Matt Leinart starred at the LA Coliseum.

While the Pac-12 champion has been a touchdown to 10 points weaker than the SEC Champion in the last decade, the bottom teams in the league have been better than other conferences’ bottom teams.  Since moving from eight to nine conference games in 2006, in 10 of the 12 years, at least one team and in many cases two teams have come up one win short of bowl eligibility.  Only Oregon in 2010 has been able to go 9-0 in the league and win the Pac-12 Championship Game as well.

Will this be the year that one team emerges from the pack to earn the league’s first playoff spot since Washington in 2016?  The odds say it won’t happen this year.  The league is too balanced, and there are no dominant teams.  It also doesn’t help that the two leading contenders for the conference championship must face off in an interdivisional game, and chances are high the two teams could split those games.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Pac-12 Media Poll
North Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Oregon	17	190
2	Washington	17	189
3	Stanford	0	129
4	Washington St.	1	108
5	California	0	81
6	Oregon St.	0	38
South Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Utah	33	206
2	USC	2	167
3T	Arizona St.	0	118
3T	UCLA	0	118
5	Arizona	0	85
6	Colorado	0	46
	Championship Game Winner		Overall Votes
	Utah		12
	Oregon		11
	Washington		9
	USC		2
	Washington St.		1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Pac-12
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	113.6	113.5	114.9	114.0
Washington	112.5	111.9	113.6	112.7
Washington St.	111.8	110.7	112.0	111.5
Stanford	108.5	107.5	108.6	108.2
California	106.8	107.0	108.1	107.3
Oregon St.	95.1	96.2	93.9	95.1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.4	114.7	116.6	115.9
Arizona St.	107.7	106.6	108.3	107.6
U C L A	107.6	106.9	106.8	107.1
U S C	104.0	105.2	104.4	104.6
Arizona	101.7	102.0	102.2	102.0
Colorado	99.8	99.0	99.9	99.5
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.4	107.1

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
North Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Washington	8-1	11-2
2	Oregon	7-2	9-3
3	Stanford	6-3	7-5
4	Washington St.	5-4	8-4
5	California	3-6	5-7
6	Oregon St.	0-9	1-11
South Division
Pos	Team	Conference	Overall
1	Utah	7-2	11-2*
2	UCLA	5-4	6-6
3	Arizona St.	4-5	6-6
4	USC	4-5	5-7
5	Arizona	3-6	5-7
6	Colorado	1-8	3-9
*	Utah picked to win Pac-12 Championship Game

 

As you can see, if our predictions are correct, three Pac-12 teams will miss bowl eligibility by one game, most likely because rather than playing an easy Group of 5 or FCS opponent, they will be playing a ninth conference game.

 

Bowl Predictions	Team
Playoffs	Not This Year
Rose	Utah
Cotton	Washington
Alamo	Oregon
Holiday	Washington St.
Redbox	Stanford
Sun	Arizona St.
Vegas	UCLA
Cheez-it	(At-large team needed)

 

Coaches That Could Move Up To Major Programs

None, but Stanford’s David Shaw has been rumored for years to be in the mix for a future NFL head coaching position.

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Clay Helton, USC

Helton begins the year with the hottest seat in college football.  He better win the BYU game in Provo, or who knows?  He could be met with his pink slip on the airport tarmac.  The Trojans’ schedule is a nightmare for a coach on the hot seat.  As if playing nine tough conference games isn’t enough, USC’s out-of-conference slate includes Fresno State, BYU, and Notre Dame.  If the Trojans go 2-1 in these games and then go 7-2 in the Pac-12 to win the South Division flag, Helton might keep his job.  Anything less, and Athletics Director Lynn Swann will have to make a move, assuming he still has his job.  Just remember, it only takes Urban Meyer one year to feel healthy enough to coach again.  There are also excellent options in Chris Peterson, Matt Campbell, Dino Babers, and even a current NFL coach.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Oregon

J. T. Daniels, USC

K.J. Costello, Stanford

Khalil Tate, Arizona

Keep eyes on Washington’s Jacob Eason and Washington State’s Gage Gebrud.

 

Top Offense

Oregon

Utah

Washington

 

Top Defense

California

Utah

Oregon

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Big 12 Conference–Oklahoma loses Heisman Trophy quarterback Kyler Murray and replaces him with former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.  Will Hurts make a run at the hardware competing against his former teammate?

Can Texas build upon their progress made last year, or will Iowa State or Baylor emerge as the principle rival to the Sooners this year?