Normally, we do not commence with our basketball coverage until after New Year’s Day, but this year all 351 Division 1 teams have reached the 10-game plateau before the turn of the year. It takes our PiRate Ratings 10 games into everybody’s schedule before the average statistics calm down enough to make our ratings worth a grain of salt.
We have made a couple of changes this season. First, our Red, White, and Blue ratings have been sent to the scrap pile. They were just minor variations in the algorithm of the stats we use to determine power ratings. Instead, beginning this season, we have put all three algorithms together into one conglomerate rating, simply “The PiRate Rating.”
We have been in contact with most of our Bracketology Gurus from last year, and we hope to have this function up and running soon. We are still efforting to contact two of our past contributors, and we hope they will soon return to the ship. As some of our loyal followers remember last season, our Gurus were 100% accurate, 68 for 68, in picking the NCAA Tournament teams on the morning of Selection Sunday. As far as we can tell, no national bracketologist matched this feat.
The lineup this year is for a bracketology composite to be released on Monday or Tuesday (depends on when all our Gurus get their data to us), and for a preview of the weekend games of the top conferences to be issued on Friday afternoons. Unfortunately, since we are not automated, we cannot release selections for all 351 teams nor for weekday games. We will limit our selections to Saturday and Sunday conference games and games between NCAA contenders of the power leagues. We will also release our ratings of the power conferences. For those that want more information on mid-major and low-major conferences, we will periodically report on these conference races, beginning with our first one today.
The PiRate Ratings Top 25 for December 27, 2017
A rating of 100 is the national average. 115 or above is a final four caliber team.
| Rank |
Team |
PiRate |
Conf. |
| 1 |
Villanova |
121.4 |
BE |
| 2 |
Duke |
120.0 |
ACC |
| 3 |
Michigan St. |
119.8 |
B10 |
| 4 |
Purdue |
119.7 |
B10 |
| 5 |
Kansas |
119.4 |
B12 |
| 6 |
Virginia |
117.4 |
ACC |
| 7 |
North Carolina |
116.8 |
ACC |
| 8 |
Xavier |
115.9 |
BE |
| 9 |
Texas A&M |
115.9 |
SEC |
| 10 |
West Virginia |
115.8 |
B12 |
| 11 |
Wichita St. |
115.4 |
AAC |
| 12 |
Gonzaga |
115.2 |
WCC |
| 13 |
Arizona St. |
115.0 |
P12 |
| 14 |
Texas Tech |
115.0 |
B12 |
| 15 |
Cincinnati |
114.9 |
AAC |
| 16 |
Oklahoma |
114.7 |
B12 |
| 17 |
Arkansas |
114.6 |
SEC |
| 18 |
Arizona |
114.5 |
P12 |
| 19 |
Creighton |
114.1 |
BE |
| 20 |
Florida St. |
113.4 |
ACC |
| 21 |
Tennessee |
113.4 |
SEC |
| 22 |
Miami FL |
113.2 |
ACC |
| 23 |
Seton Hall |
113.1 |
BE |
| 24 |
TCU |
113.1 |
B12 |
| 25 |
Clemson |
112.8 |
ACC |
Rankings By Top Conferences
| Team |
PiRate |
Conf. |
| Wichita St. |
115.4 |
AAC |
| Cincinnati |
114.9 |
AAC |
| SMU |
112.0 |
AAC |
| Houston |
110.6 |
AAC |
| Temple |
106.7 |
AAC |
| UCF |
104.5 |
AAC |
| Tulsa |
102.2 |
AAC |
| Connecticut |
101.3 |
AAC |
| Tulane |
100.6 |
AAC |
| Memphis |
99.0 |
AAC |
| South Florida |
92.9 |
AAC |
| East Carolina |
91.7 |
AAC |
| Duke |
120.0 |
ACC |
| Virginia |
117.4 |
ACC |
| North Carolina |
116.8 |
ACC |
| Florida St. |
113.4 |
ACC |
| Miami FL |
113.2 |
ACC |
| Clemson |
112.8 |
ACC |
| Virginia Tech |
112.6 |
ACC |
| Notre Dame |
112.5 |
ACC |
| Louisville |
111.3 |
ACC |
| Syracuse |
108.2 |
ACC |
| North Carolina St. |
107.4 |
ACC |
| Wake Forest |
105.8 |
ACC |
| Boston College |
105.2 |
ACC |
| Georgia Tech |
100.6 |
ACC |
| Pittsburgh |
98.4 |
ACC |
| Michigan St. |
119.8 |
B10 |
| Purdue |
119.7 |
B10 |
| Michigan |
111.9 |
B10 |
| Maryland |
111.8 |
B10 |
| Minnesota |
110.5 |
B10 |
| Ohio St. |
110.1 |
B10 |
| Penn St. |
109.5 |
B10 |
| Northwestern |
108.4 |
B10 |
| Wisconsin |
106.7 |
B10 |
| Iowa |
106.4 |
B10 |
| Illinois |
106.3 |
B10 |
| Indiana |
104.6 |
B10 |
| Rutgers |
104.4 |
B10 |
| Nebraska |
104.2 |
B10 |
| Kansas |
119.4 |
B12 |
| West Virginia |
115.8 |
B12 |
| Texas Tech |
115.0 |
B12 |
| Oklahoma |
114.7 |
B12 |
| TCU |
113.1 |
B12 |
| Baylor |
112.1 |
B12 |
| Texas |
111.6 |
B12 |
| Kansas St. |
109.3 |
B12 |
| Oklahoma St. |
109.0 |
B12 |
| Iowa St. |
105.1 |
B12 |
| Villanova |
121.4 |
BE |
| Xavier |
115.9 |
BE |
| Creighton |
114.1 |
BE |
| Seton Hall |
113.1 |
BE |
| Butler |
110.3 |
BE |
| St. John’s |
108.8 |
BE |
| Marquette |
108.4 |
BE |
| Providence |
106.3 |
BE |
| Georgetown |
103.4 |
BE |
| DePaul |
103.0 |
BE |
| Nevada |
112.3 |
MWC |
| San Diego St. |
109.0 |
MWC |
| UNLV |
108.9 |
MWC |
| Boise St. |
107.6 |
MWC |
| Fresno St. |
106.3 |
MWC |
| Utah St. |
101.3 |
MWC |
| Wyoming |
101.0 |
MWC |
| New Mexico |
99.4 |
MWC |
| Colorado St. |
96.5 |
MWC |
| Air Force |
92.7 |
MWC |
| San Jose St. |
92.4 |
MWC |
| Arizona St. |
115.0 |
P12 |
| Arizona |
114.5 |
P12 |
| USC |
110.4 |
P12 |
| Oregon |
109.8 |
P12 |
| UCLA |
107.9 |
P12 |
| Utah |
107.4 |
P12 |
| Colorado |
102.3 |
P12 |
| Stanford |
101.7 |
P12 |
| Washington |
101.7 |
P12 |
| Oregon St. |
100.4 |
P12 |
| Washington St. |
100.4 |
P12 |
| California |
97.6 |
P12 |
| Texas A&M |
115.9 |
SEC |
| Arkansas |
114.6 |
SEC |
| Tennessee |
113.4 |
SEC |
| Kentucky |
111.8 |
SEC |
| Florida |
111.4 |
SEC |
| Auburn |
111.0 |
SEC |
| Missouri |
110.0 |
SEC |
| Alabama |
108.3 |
SEC |
| South Carolina |
106.9 |
SEC |
| Vanderbilt |
106.2 |
SEC |
| Georgia |
106.1 |
SEC |
| LSU |
106.0 |
SEC |
| Mississippi St. |
105.8 |
SEC |
| Mississippi |
105.3 |
SEC |
| Gonzaga |
115.2 |
WCC |
| Saint Mary’s |
110.9 |
WCC |
| BYU |
107.2 |
WCC |
| San Diego |
102.5 |
WCC |
| San Francisco |
100.4 |
WCC |
| Pacific |
97.0 |
WCC |
| Loyola Marymount |
96.7 |
WCC |
| Santa Clara |
93.8 |
WCC |
| Portland |
93.1 |
WCC |
| Pepperdine |
92.3 |
WCC |
A Look at the 22, One Bid Leagues
America East
Albany has the best record at 11-3, and one of their three losses was by just two points against Louisville, while Vermont at 8-5 has played a slightly tougher schedule and has narrow misses at Kentucky, Marquette, and St. Bonaventure. Vermont ran the table in the AmEast last year, and the Catamounts are the team to beat.
Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast (7-7) was supposed to be the class of the A-Sun this year with a team similar to their great past squads under former coach Andy Enfield. However, they look like the third best team as conference play begins. Lipscomb (9-4) swept rival and perennial NCAA Tournament team Belmont in a home and home series, and they stayed close with a ranked Tennessee team. NJIT (7-6) appears to be the other team capable of winning the conference race. Of course, this league could easily see a middle of the pack team win the conference tournament. The tournament is played on campus, so the top seed will have home court advantage throughout. Lipscomb is currently 5-0 at home, so this is something to keep an eye on for the next several weeks.
Big Sky
Portland State (10-3) is the cream of the class as the year ends, but this league has some talented teams, and the Vikings will not run the table and easily earn the lone NCAA bid. Challenges will come from Idaho (8-4), Northern Colorado (9-5), Weber State (7-5), and Montana (7-5). Portland State averages over 90 points per game and led Duke at the half earlier this year. They have an outstanding pair of tall guard in Deontae North and Bryce Canda, and this is a team that could be a #13 seed that can beat a #4 seed in the Round of 64.
Big South
The conference race starts with three teams appearing to be above the rest of the league, but this looks like a bit of a down year in the Big South. Liberty (9-4) has a win at Wake Forest, but they also lost at home to Mercer. The Flames have the best defense in the league, led by Bradley transfer Scottie James at power forward. Winthrop (6-5) has the superior offense in the league, thrice exceeding 100 points so far. However, all three of those centennial-topping games came against non-Division I teams. Against a decent team like Auburn, the Eagles gave up 119 points and lost by 34. UNC-Asheville (7-6) has underachieved in November and December, but with three quality starters in Macio Teague, Ahmad Thomas, and Kevin Vannatta, the Bulldogs can still put it together and win the league again.
Big West
UCSB (10-3) has the highest power rating so far, but the three co-favorites to win the conference are just behind and not by much. UC-Davis (8-5), Cal State Fullerton (7-4), and UC-Irvine (5-10) will be there in March. UC-Irvine’s poor record is a bit misleading, as the Anteaters have played a gruesome schedule that includes losses to South Dakota State, Kansas State, Arizona State, UCLA, Nevada, and Saint Mary’s, all who could be in the NCAA Tournament.
Colonial
Towson (10-3) has the best overall record, but their 10 wins have come against nobody special. Charleston (9-3) is in a similar boat with no significant wins. Northeastern (7-5), Hofstra (7-5), and William & Mary (7-4) play much better on their home floors than when away from home, and this group of five teams should contend for top honors. William & Mary may be the team with the potential to improve the most in the next two months and emerge as the favorite. With just a little defensive improvement, the Tribe could be scary in an opening round game.
Conference USA
We will have to monitor this league a bit closer, because there is a small possibility that this league could move up into the multiple bid leagues. Middle Tennessee (8-4) is trying to emerge as the Gonzaga of the South. The Blue Raiders have won back-to-back opening round NCAA Tournament games over Big Ten teams the last two seasons, and they beat Vanderbilt and Ole Miss so far. Their four losses have been to teams that should be in the NCAA Tournament (Belmont, Auburn, USC, and Miami), and they nearly beat USC and Miami in Honolulu. Five other teams could contend with the heavily favored Blue Raiders, and that is where CUSA could eventually get a second team in the Dance. Old Dominion (9-3) has an excellent controlled offense and quality defense, the type that can win conference tournaments in March. Western Kentucky (8-5) has the talent to pull off three conference tournament wins. The Hilltoppers beat Purdue and SMU and lost a narrow game to Villanova, so they will be tough in conference play. Louisiana Tech (9-4), UAB (9-4), and Marshall (9-4) all have stellar offensive games, and in this league, any of this trio could get hot in March and win the conference tournament. If MTSU wins the regular season title with only one or two losses and then loses in the CUSA Tournament Championship Game, the league could get that second bid. For now, we leave this as a one-bid league.
Horizon
Northern Kentucky (7-5) was supposed to win this conference with ease this year after earning its first ever NCAA Tournament bid last year. Oakland (8-5) and Wright State (8-5) look like serious challengers this year. Oakland can score 100 points or give up 100 points on a random night, while Wright State can hold an opponent under 50 points or struggle to score 50 points on a random night. Neither team is complete enough to win a game in the Round of 64.
Ivy
Now that there is a four-team post-season tournament in this league, determining the upper division is more important than ever. This year, it looks rather easy to determine which four teams will make the tournament, as there is quite a division between number four and number five. Penn (8-4), Princeton (7-7), Yale (6-8), and Harvard (5-7) should be the top four in some order or another. Princeton has the best win, besting USC in Los Angeles.
Metro Atlantic
This looks like an off year for Monmouth (4-8). The Hawks could not pull off any signature wins in the pre-conference schedule, and it leaves Iona (6-6) as the only team capable of winning an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. If any other MAAC team wins the automatic bid, chances are high they will play an early game in Dayton.
Mid-American
This is possibly the most balanced league this year, but then this isn’t anything new. The MAC has several good but not great teams. As many as eight teams have the talent to win the conference tournament, but chances are rather strong that whoever that team is, they will make a quick departure in the Big Dance, losing by a modest amount to their favored opponent. Central Michigan (10-2) has no special wins with a seven point loss at Michigan being their top resume opponent. Eastern Michigan (8-3) can score points quickly in their up-tempo offense, but the Eagles lack the defense to become scary. Ball State (8-4) has a seven-game winning streak, which includes the best win in the league, a win at Notre Dame, and the Cardinals need to be watched a little closer to see if this may develop into something impressive. Other teams to watch include Buffalo (7-5), Ohio (6-5), Toledo (7-5), Western Michigan (7-5), and Kent State (6-6). You can pick one of these eight teams out of a hat and have as good a chance at predicting the NCAA recipient with the same accuracy as the top prognosticators.
Mideastern Athletic
This league has been known to produce some surprise upset winners in the past, including a 15-seed knocking off a 2-seed. Even though no MEAC teams have impressive pre-conference records, the top members are competitive and tend to improve in February and March as they gain confidence from a lot of league wins. Keep an eye on UNC-Central (5-8). While the Eagles have no signature wins, they have lost some close games to good teams. If UNCC doesn’t win the conference, then it will most likely go to either North Carolina A&T (7-7) or Morgan State (4-7).
Missouri Valley
Don’t be confused by the Valley becoming a one-bid league. You may not have realized that Wichita State no longer is a member. The Shockers moved to the American Athletic Conference, leaving the MVC without a major power. Thus, the winner at Arch Madness in St. Louis will get the one bid available to this league. As of now, Missouri State (11-3) and Loyola (Chi.) (10-3) look like the class of the league. The two teams squared off at MSU to begin conference play, and the Bears pulled off a narrow home victory. Other teams to keep an eye on include Bradley (10-3), new member Valparaiso (9-4), and Northern Iowa (8-4).
Northeast
This looks like a First Four Game league with the winner going to Dayton. As of this writing, seven of the league’s ten members are bunched rather closely, although not as much so as the MAC. St. Francis (Pa.) (6-5) has the most impressive resume to date, but the Red Flash have very little to show. They played toe-to-toe on the road against Saint Mary’s for 14 minutes, before they fell far behind early in the second half. They stayed within a few points at Louisville for 17 minutes and even went on a 24-10 run in the second half, but they still lost by double digits. But, they also trailed Duke by 30 points in the first 10 minutes of the game. So, this is still a team that nobody will fear, even in the opening round in Dayton. Wagner (7-4) and Robert Morris (6-7) look like the top two contenders, but the talent in this league is not strong enough to say that these three are surely the best three in the league. It will take 5 or 6 conference games before the true contenders are known.
Ohio Valley
The OVC looks to be an improved league in 2018, but they still have a long way to go before it threatens to be a two-bid league. Perennial favorite Belmont (8-5) has been hot and cold so far, beating Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, and Western Kentucky, and narrowly losing to Providence and unbeaten TCU, but they also were swept by neighborhood rival Lipscomb in their annual home and home series. Former dominant league member Murray State (8-3) is on the rise once again, and the Racers have a balanced offense, capable of scoring inside and from behind the arc. Jacksonville State (9-4) is an up and comer, and the led deep into the second half at Mississippi State and missed on two good looks in the final 5 seconds in a one point loss at Oregon State.
Patriot
Navy (9-4) and Army (7-4) have the two best records in the league in the preseason, but Bucknell (6-7) appears to be the class of the league like usual. The Bison began 0-4 with a tough three-game stretch that saw them play at Arkansas, North Carolina, and Maryland in the same week, losing close games in the latter two. Bucknell actually led the Terps by 15 at the half. This will be a team that could give a favorite fits in a Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.
Southern
This league is better than most national media give it credit. In fact, there are four teams this year that have the talent to win a game in the NCAA Tournament, and maybe one team has Sweet 16 potential. That team is East Tennessee State (8-4). The Buccaneers lost by just two at Xavier and led at Kentucky by 10 points in the first half, so they have the potential to pull off an upset in the Dance. Furman (9-4), UNC-Greensboro (9-4), and Mercer (6-6) look to be the other top contenders.
Southland
Stephen F. Austin (11-2) has become the Kansas of this league, and any talk of picking a league champion starts here. The Lumberjacks’ two losses came by slim margins on the road against SEC teams, while they also won at LSU. SFA’s top rivals this year include Abilene Christian (8-5), Lamar (8-5), and Central Arkansas (6-7).
Southwestern Athletic
This is the league that always puts its conference champion in Dayton for an opening round game. It is continually the last-place team in power ratings every year, and this year is no different. How weak is the SWAC? Consider that five teams (Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Mississippi Valley St., Texas Southern, and Arkanas-Pine Bluff are a combined 0-65! Yes, the best record among this quintet is ASU’s 0-12 record. Yet, it would not be surprising if one of these teams eventually wins the conference tournament and gets an automatic bid with 20 losses. Texas Southern (0-13) actually possesses the best PiRate Rating as of today. The best records in the pre-season belong to Grambling (4-8) and Alcorn State (4-9). While Alcorn’s four wins came against non-Division I teams, at least Grambling owns a win over Georgia Tech.
Summitt
Like CUSA, this league is close to moving into potential two-bid status. That’s because South Dakota (12-4) is on the cusp of contending for an at-large bid. The Coyotes have come the closest to knocking off unbeaten TCU, losing by just 5 (it was a 1-point game in the final minute). Two of their other three losses came against Duke and UCLA on the road, and they were very competitive in both contests. Rival South Dakota State (11-5) won at Ole Miss and defeated Iowa on a neutral floor, and they dropped close games to Colorado and Wichita State. Fort Wayne (9-6) is one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation, but if they ever get their act together for three consecutive games, the Mastodons could earn the automatic bid. For the second year in a row, FW clobbered Indiana, winning by 20 at Assembly Hall. They led at Kentucky until just before halftime. But, you never know what Mastodon team will show up.
Sun Belt
Most people think of this as a football conference, but the SBC is a tough mid-major basketball league as well. While there is no chance that more than one team will make it to the NCAA Tournament this year, there are three quality teams that have the talent to make it to the Round of 32. Louisiana-Lafayette (10-3) is one of the most exciting teams to watch. The Ragin’ Cajuns can press the action on both ends of the floor, and they can pound it inside with a couple of talented forwards in Bryce Washington and JaKeenan Grant. Georgia Southern (9-4), Texas-Arlington (9-4), and Georgia State (9-4) look to be the top contenders. All four of these conference foes are talented enough to win in the Round of 64. Keep an eye on UTA’s multi-talented big man Kevin Hervey. He can score inside and outside like a mini-LeBron.
Western Athletic
There are two WAC teams that nobody will want to face in a Round of 64 game, and chances are high that one of the dynamic duo will make the Dance. New Mexico State (11-3) sneaked into the Championship game of the Hawaii Diamondhead Classic after beating previously undefeated Miami. It took a deep three by USC’s Bennie Boatwright to keep the Aggies from winning the tournament. NMSU also owns an impressive double-digit win over Illinois. This is Grand Canyon’s (9-4) first year as an eligible NCAA Tournament team and former NBA great Dan Majerle has a team made up of tough competitors. GCU goes 10-deep without much drop in talent, and this team plays together with no real star. If not for some weak shooting nights, the Antelopes would be the overwhelming favorite, but for now, they remain a co-favorite.
By our count, that leaves 46 bids to be doled out to the remaining 10 conferences. We think as of today that the West Coast, Mountain West and Atlantic 10 conferences will receive just two bids. That will then leave 40 bids for the top seven leagues, or an average of 5.7 teams per power conference.
Predictions for Saturday-Sunday power conference games coming Friday afternoon
