The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 20, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For February 20, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:11 am

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Albany

UMBC

5.4

Appalachian St.

South Alabama

4.0

Arizona

Oregon St.

12.8

Arizona St.

Oregon

-0.6

Binghamton

UMass Lowell

-2.6

BYU

Santa Clara

16.4

Cal Poly

UC Davis

-2.7

Cal St. Fullerton

UC Santa Barbara

-2.9

Charleston Southern

Campbell

0.9

Cleveland St.

Northern Kentucky

-6.7

Coastal Carolina

Troy

7.9

Colorado

USC

8.6

Delaware

Northeastern

-0.3

Denver

Oral Roberts

-8.2

Drexel

Hofstra

-4.4

Eastern Illinois

Murray St.

-4.6

Eastern Kentucky

Tennessee St.

-0.4

Eastern Washington

Sacramento St.

7.0

Gonzaga

San Francisco

18.1

Hampton

Gardner-Webb

-4.5

High Point

Presbyterian

0.5

Idaho

Northern Arizona

-2.2

Indiana St.

Northern Iowa

-3.3

Iowa

Ohio St.

1.6

Jacksonville

Lipscomb

4.0

Jacksonville St.

Southeast Missouri

9.8

James Madison

Elon

3.1

Liberty

North Florida

9.6

Morehead St.

Belmont

-11.9

Nebraska

Michigan St.

-10.9

New Hampshire

Hartford

3.4

NJIT

Stetson

2.7

North Alabama

Kennesaw St.

14.7

Northern Colorado

Southern Utah

7.2

Portland

Pepperdine

-5.3

Portland St.

Montana St.

3.7

Purdue Fort Wayne

Omaha

-0.5

Radford

UNC Asheville

11.3

Saint Mary’s

Loyola Marymount

16.1

Seattle

Grand Canyon

4.1

SIU-Edwardsville

Austin Peay

-9.9

South Carolina Upstate

Longwood

1.5

Southern Illinois

Evansville

9.4

Stony Brook

Vermont

-3.7

Temple

Connecticut

0.2

Tennessee Tech

UT Martin

0.7

Texas St.

Georgia Southern

6.1

Towson

William & Mary

5.2

UC Riverside

Hawaii

2.0

UT Arlington

Georgia St.

1.8

Utah

UCLA

2.3

Utah Valley

Cal St. Bakersfield

1.7

Washington

Stanford

2.7

Wichita St.

South Florida

11.1

Youngstown St.

Wright St.

-5.8

 

Thursday’s Key Games

Maybe the best top games of the week

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN

Iowa

Ohio St.

7:00 PM

ESPN+

Liberty

North Florida

7:00 PM

ESPNU

Stony Brook

Vermont

8:00 PM

ESPN+

Texas St.

Georgia Southern

9:00 PM

ESPN

Arizona St.

Oregon

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Colorado

USC

 

The Big Three Mid-Major Conference Games on TV Tonight

Liberty vs. North Florida–The winner most likely will end up with the number one seed in the Atlantic Sun Conference.  North Florida won the first contest 71-70 in a tight game that stayed close for 40 minutes.  At the time, Liberty was 19-1 and on the cusp of becoming ranked in the top 25.

North Florida’s starting lineup all average double figure points per game.  The Ospreys are by far the best shooting team in the A-Sun, both inside and outside the 3-point line and at the foul line.

Liberty has the best defense in the A-Sun, and the Flames go seven deep with little drop in talent.  With the A-Sun Tournament played on the home courts of the higher seeds, and with these two teams being the two powers of the league, the NCAA Tournament bid will be decided when these two probably play for a third time.  Home court advantage will probably decide it.  Liberty has the edge tonight, which should give the Flames the edge when they play again in a couple weeks.

 

Stony Brook vs. Vermont–Vermont has a 2 1/2 game lead over second place Stony Brook, so this is a must win for Stony Brook as far as the regular season conference race goes.  The conference tournament is played on the home courts of the higher seeds, so getting the #1 seed means home court advantage all the way to the Championship.

These are the top two programs in the league.  Vermont has won 14 of their last 15 games, and they have a conference scoring margin of +15.8 points per game.  The Catamounts dominate every important analytic statistic in the America East Conference.  

On paper, Stony Brook doesn’t have the resume of a team that looks capable of beating Vermont.  The Seawolves barely hold control of the number two spot in the league, but they have done something no other A-East team has done–they beat Vermont, and they did it in Burlington no less.

 

Texas St. vs. Georgia Southern–These two teams are still in contention for the regular season Sun Belt Conference Championship, as they are tied for third with 10-6 SBC records, just two games behind league leader Little Rock and one game behind second place Georgia St.  

Texas St. has one of the top players in the league in senior guard Nijel Pearson.  Pearson combines excellent long range shooting with the ability to get inside and score on the offensive side and fight for rebounds on the defensive end.  Earlier this season, he almost single-handily kept Texas St. in the game at Baylor, and the Bobcats scared the top-ranked team in Waco before finally losing by nine points.

Georgia Southern has a small but quick lineup, and the Eagles are fun to watch play.  This could be the most exciting game of the night.

 

 

January 30, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 30, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:40 am

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Arkansas St.

Appalachian St.

1.2

Austin Peay

SIU-Edwardsville

16.4

BYU

Pepperdine

15.3

Cal Poly

Cal St. Fullerton

-1.5

Cal St. Northridge

UC Santa Barbara

-2.2

California

Oregon

-10.9

Campbell

High Point

11.7

Charleston Southern

Winthrop

-7.4

Cleveland St.

IUPUI

4.5

Denver

South Dakota

-6.0

Eastern Kentucky

UT Martin

2.9

Elon

Hofstra

-7.2

Florida Atlantic

Western Kentucky

-3.8

Florida International

Marshall

2.1

Georgia Southern

Troy

10.5

Georgia St.

South Alabama

9.0

Illinois

Minnesota

5.2

Jacksonville

Florida Gulf Coast

8.2

Jacksonville St.

Tennessee St.

4.1

James Madison

Charleston

-5.2

Liberty

Kennesaw St.

27.3

Little Rock

Coastal Carolina

5.9

Longwood

Radford

-6.7

Louisiana Tech

Charlotte

10.2

Maryland

Iowa

4.9

Merrimack

St. Francis (NY)

6.1

Morehead St.

Southeast Missouri

5.7

Murray St.

Eastern Illinois

9.8

New Mexico St.

Cal St. Bakersfield

12.3

NJIT

North Alabama

3.4

North Florida

Stetson

10.6

Northern Colorado

Idaho St.

15.2

Pacific

Loyola Marymount

6.4

Portland St.

Montana

0.8

Presbyterian

South Carolina Upstate

1.9

Purdue Fort Wayne

North Dakota

0.9

Robert Morris

Bryant

2.6

Sacred Heart

Mount St. Mary’s

6.3

Saint Mary’s

Portland

20.3

San Diego

San Francisco

-5.2

Santa Clara

Gonzaga

-15.2

Southern Miss

Old Dominion

-2.1

Southern Utah

Weber St.

11.1

St. Francis (PA)

Central Connecticut

19.8

Stanford

Oregon St.

8.1

Tennessee Tech

Belmont

-15.6

Texas St.

Louisiana Monroe

12.5

Towson

UNC Wilmington

12.4

UC Davis

UC Irvine

-3.9

UC Riverside

Long Beach St.

8.2

UCLA

Colorado

-6.5

UNC Asheville

Gardner-Webb

2.4

USC

Utah

8.9

UT Arlington

Louisiana

12.2

UT Rio Grande Valley

Grand Canyon

2.3

UTEP

Middle Tennessee

11.3

UTSA

UAB

3.6

Wagner

Fairleigh Dickinson

1.6

Washington

Arizona

-3.0

Western Illinois

North Dakota St.

-8.7

William & Mary

Northeastern

0.9

Youngstown St

Illinois Chicago

2.8

 

The 10 Best Games On TV Tonight

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN+

North Florida

Stetson

7:30 PM

FS1

Illinois

Minnesota

7:30 PM

ESPN+

Louisiana Tech

Charlotte

7:30 PM

ESPN+

Charleston Southern

Winthrop

8:30 PM

BTN

Maryland

Iowa

8:30 PM

CBSSN

BYU

Pepperdine

9:00 PM

Pac-12

California

Oregon

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Washington

Arizona

10:30 PM

CBSSN

Santa Clara

Gonzaga

11:00 PM

ESPN2

UCLA

Colorado

 

 

 

 

January 26, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 26, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:14 am

Sunday’s Games

Home

Visitor

Spread

California

Stanford

-8.5

Connecticut

Tulsa

4.3

Creighton

Xavier

6.2

Drake

Missouri St.

3.4

Fairfield

Canisius

1.5

Houston

South Florida

13.4

Indiana

Maryland

-0.6

Iona

Monmouth

0.6

Manhattan

Rider

-0.3

Minnesota

Michigan St.

-2.4

Northern Iowa

Loyola (Chi)

5.7

Northwestern

Ohio St.

-7.7

Oregon

UCLA

13.6

Saint Louis

Fordham

13.9

Saint Peter’s

Niagara

6.7

Siena

Quinnipiac

4.0

UNLV

San Diego St.

-9.1

Valparaiso

Evansville

10.0

Wake Forest

Virginia

-1.3

 

Saturday Was Upset City

There were more than two dozen upsets Saturday in Division 1 college basketball.  While your favorite team in a power conference may have won, and you’re thinking that you don’t remember many upsets, let us tell you that many of them occurred in the Mid-Major conferences.  Because most of the Mid-Major conferences will be one-bid leagues, and the conference tournament champion will be the representative in the Big Dance, our bracketology must undergo massive restructuring in the #13 through 16 seeds.

Thus, we will put out an update Bracketology later today, or basically as soon as we can clean up the mess and “un-muddle the water.”

 

 

 

 

 

January 19, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 19, 2020

Division 1 Basketball Games on Sunday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Canisius

Rider

-0.8

Chicago State

Cal St. Bakersfield

-15.8

Cincinnati

East Carolina

16.9

Fordham

Davidson

-7.4

Illinois State

Loyola (Chi.)

-4.9

Maine

Binghamton

1.8

Marist

Iona

-4.5

Niagara

Siena

-2.2

North Dakota State

North Dakota

7.4

Rutgers

Minnesota

3.9

South Dakota

South Dakota State

-1.3

Southern Illinois

Drake

0.1

UCLA

California

6.5

UMKC

Grand Canyon

3.3

Wake Forest

Boston College

6.7

January 15, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 15, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:04 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Wednesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Butler

Seton Hall

4.8

South Carolina

Kentucky

-6.1

Syracuse

Boston College

10.3

Florida St.

Virginia

7.7

Georgetown

Creighton

1.7

Georgia

Tennessee

0.1

Duquesne

Fordham

16.0

North Carolina St.

Miami (Fla.)

6.8

East Carolina

Tulsa

-3.6

Saint Bonaventure

Massachusetts

6.8

Rutgers

Indiana

3.2

Saint Joseph’s

Rhode Island

-9.6

Baylor

Iowa St.

10.4

Marquette

Xavier

5.4

Oklahoma St.

Texas

4.0

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

13.0

Providence

St. John’s

3.4

Georgia Tech

Notre Dame

1.4

Alabama

Auburn

-2.3

Minnesota

Penn St.

2.8

Temple

Wichita St.

-1.6

Houston

SMU

8.0

Air Force

Boise St.

-0.7

Colorado St.

New Mexico

-0.1

UCLA

Stanford

-3.1

UNLV

San Jose St.

13.4

January 11, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 11, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:35 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Saturday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Auburn

Georgia

10.5

Boston College

Georgia Tech

-1.0

BYU

Portland

21.6

California

Washington

-7.9

Central Florida

Cincinnati

-2.2

Dayton

Massachusetts

20.5

Duke

Wake Forest

21.4

East Carolina

SMU

-8.4

Illinois

Rutgers

4.5

Indiana

Ohio St.

-2.5

Iowa St.

Oklahoma

2.4

Kansas

Baylor

10.1

Kentucky

Alabama

8.1

Loyola Marymount

Gonzaga

-17.4

LSU

Mississippi St.

8.6

Missouri

Florida

0.1

New Mexico

Air Force

9.7

North Carolina

Clemson

5.9

Northwestern

Nebraska

5.2

Notre Dame

Louisville

-3.3

Ole Miss

Arkansas

-3.5

Oregon

Arizona St.

11.4

Penn St.

Wisconsin

4.4

Saint Mary’s

Santa Clara

14.2

San Diego St.

Boise St.

12.5

Seton Hall

Marquette

6.3

St. John’s

DePaul

3.6

Stanford

Washington St.

11.0

TCU

Oklahoma St.

3.8

Temple

Tulane

11.7

Tennessee

South Carolina

9.6

Texas

Kansas St.

5.5

Tulsa

Houston

-5.7

UCLA

USC

-1.1

Utah St.

Nevada

7.0

Vanderbilt

Texas A&M

5.8

Villanova

Georgetown

6.2

Virginia

Syracuse

6.8

Virginia Tech

North Carolina St.

1.3

West Virginia

Texas Tech

6.3

Wyoming

UNLV

-5.5

Xavier

Creighton

4.1

 

January 2, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 2, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:45 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Purdue

Minnesota

5.7

Michigan St.

Illinois

11.2

La Salle

Dayton

-11.3

Utah

Oregon St.

-0.1

Colorado

Oregon

-0.7

Portland

Gonzaga

-22.3

Washington

UCLA

10.3

Washington St.

USC

-2.8

Stanford

California

11.2

San Francisco

Saint Mary’s

-3.5

 

Note 1–We have been asked to explain the spread and when it is positive or negative.  When the spread is positive, the home team is favored by the amount shown.  When the spread is negative, the visiting team is favored by the amount shown.

Note 2–While we basically just issue spreads for games involving opponents from the power conferences or teams in the top 25 of the rankings, our ratings are easily usable for all Division 1 teams and all Division 1 games.  Simply subtract the visiting team power rating from the home team, and add 2 to 6 points for home court advantage.  For a typical mid-major or low-major team, the home court advantage will be 2.5 to 3.5 points. 

For a typical power conference team, the home court advantage will be 3 to 5 points.  For a team with an incredible home court advantage like Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Kansas, use 5 to 6 points.  These numbers can fluctuate based on the opponent.  For instance, if Kansas State visits Kansas, the home court advantage is reduced, because the trip is not taxing to the Wildcats.  To the contrary, if a school like Vermont hosts a team from the West Coast, their regular 3.5 point advantage might be moved to 4.5 or even 5 points.

Updated Ratings will be published Friday around Noon in the Eastern Time Zone.

Also, a new Bracketology list will be published Friday afternoon.

November 21, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 21-25, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:45 am

A Narrow Positive

We told you last week that the third week in November had historically been our most successful wagering week of the 21st Century.  Hopefully, this wasn’t a peak, but our selections did turn a small profit yet again on this favorable week of the season.

As far as the fourth week of November, our results over the last several years have been mixed.  Since this is a 5-Saturday November, the typical end of season rivalry games will be next week, so we are hoping that this week will be more typical of past third weeks.

Are you confused?  You shouldn’t be, because in the end, we highly encourage you not to wager based on any information you read here.  You pay nothing for these selections, so you should wager nothing on them.

This week our regular PiRate Picks will go big or go  home.  We are going with parlays that return big odds, and if we can win half of the  parlays, it will be a windfall imaginary profit.

We are also going to take our first 7-point, 3-game NFL Parlay of the season at 7-5 odds.

As for the Davey19 experimental system, we have seven selections against the spread.  Davey19 has been a somewhat positive experiment this year, and last week was another good one as the picks went 4-2-1.  It is experimental, so we cannot vouch for its continued success.  It is strictly mechanical and does not take into consideration the weather forecast and any injury news that came out after Monday’s PiRate Ratings were published.

 

PiRate Picks

Money Line Parlays

 

#1. 3-games at +219

USC over UCLA

UL-Monroe over Coastal Carolina

Stanford over California

 

 

#2. 4-games at +307

Michigan over Indiana

North Texas over Rice

San Jose St. over UNLV

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

 

 

#3. 5-games at +297

Oklahoma St. over West Virginia

Wake Forest over Duke

Louisville over Syracuse

Georgia St. over South Alabama

Georgia over Texas A&M

 

 

#4. 4-NFL games at +435

Houston over Indianapolis

Buffalo over Denver

Oakland over N.Y. Jets

New England over Dallas

 

 

#5. 3-Game, 7-point Teaser

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Houston

Indianapolis

10.5

Indianapolis

New Orleans

Carolina

1.5

New Orleans

Dallas

New England

0.5

New England

 

 

Davey19 Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Wyoming

Colorado St.

6.5

Wyoming

Iowa

Illinois

15.5

Illinois

Ball St.

Kent St.

3.5

Kent St.

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

4

Virginia Tech

Nebraska

Maryland

4.5

Nebraska

Missouri

Tennessee

4

Tennessee

Fresno St.

Nevada

14

Nevada

 

 

September 25, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For September 26-30, 2019

After two dreadful weeks that saw our picks totally tank, we finally enjoyed a somewhat better week.  Right off the bat, we issued you this crazy money line parlay late in the week after receiving some “inside” information from a Sharp.  The 5-team parlay of:

Nebraska over Illinois

Boston College over Rutgers

Washington over BYU

Missouri over South Carolina

UAB over South Alabama

was right on the mark, and its payout was at +250, or $100 wagered would have resulted in cashing in a ticket of $350.  Remember, however, that we only issue these picks to you as entertainment for math nerds.  We NEVER wager real money on our selections.

The Davey19 experimental model enjoyed a modest $80 profit for the week, bringing the total for the year back to -$20.  Again, just like with all our recommendations, we do not encourage you wagering real money on this experimental, technical formula.

This week, we have spent more time devoted to the slate of games than any other week in the season to date, and there is good reason for it.  We have been trying to issue some steam picks, and isolate potential sandwich games.  In the process, we opened up our massive data bank of all the major books in North America waiting to pounce on changes in the numbers when we needed an extra half-point or one point.  In several instances, the swing didn’t come or it went the wrong way.  But, in others, we saw the public move the line in the direction we hoped they would move it, in other words, a lot of “square money” moving spreads an extra half-point in our favor.

Both our regular and experimental systems came up with a season high number of selections.  Let’s get down to business fun and reveal this week’s selections

 

PiRate Ratings Regular Selections

 

10-point Teaser

3-Team Parlay

10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Michigan St.

Indiana

1

Michigan St.

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

14 1/2

Kansas St.

Ohio St.

Nebraska

7

Ohio St.

10-point Teaser

3-Team Parlay

10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Iowa St.

Baylor

13

Baylor

Iowa

Middle Tenn.

13 1/2

Iowa

Notre Dame

Virginia

2 1/2

Notre Dame

10-point Teaser

3-Team Parlay

10-12

Team

Team

Total

Pick

Nebraska

Ohio St.

56 1/2

Over

Maryland

Penn St.

51 1/2

Over

Oklahoma St.

Kansas St.

70 1/2

Under

13-point Teaser

4-Team Parlay

10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

UCLA

Arizona

6 1/2

Arizona

Cincinnati

Marshall

17

Marshall

South Carolina

Kentucky

16

Kentucky

Oklahoma

Texas Tech

14

Oklahoma

Money Line

Single Games

Upset Picks

WIN

LOSE

Spread

Pick

Marshall

Cincinnati

+160

Marshall

Duke

Virginia Tech

+120

Duke

Kansas St.

Oklahoma St.

+165

Kansas St.

Baylor

Iowa St.

+130

Baylor

North Carolina St.

Florida St.

+210

North Carolina St.

NFL Games

10-point Teaser

3-Team Parlay

10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

14 1/2

Cincinnati

Baltimore

Cleveland

17

Cleveland

Chicago

Minnesota

12 1/2

Minnesota

10-point Teaser

3-Team Parlay

10-12

Team

Team

Total

Pick

Green Bay

Philadelphia

36

Over

Houston

Carolina

57 1/2

Under

Cleveland

Baltimore

55 1/2

Under

10-point Teaser

3-Team Parlay

10-12

Team

Team

Total

Pick

Washington

NY Giants

59 1/2

Under

Kansas City

Detroit

44 1/2

Over

New England

Buffalo

32

Over

10-point Teaser

3-Team Parlay

10-12

Team

Team

Total

Pick

Atlanta

Tennessee

56

Under

Dallas

New Orleans

37

Over

Minnesota

Chicago

48 1/2

Under

 

 

Davey19

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

California

Arizona St.

5

Arizona St.

Utah

Washington St.

6

Washington St.

Virginia Tech

Duke

3

Duke

Florida St.

North Carolina St.

7

North Carolina St.

Minnesota

Purdue

1

Minnesota

Stanford

Oregon St.

4 1/2

Oregon St.

Ohio St.

Nebraska

17 1/2

Nebraska

Cincinnati

Marshall

4

Marshall

Appalachian St.

Coastal Carolina

16

Coastal Carolina

Team

Team

Total

Pick

Washington

USC

61

Under

Arizona St.

California

42

Under

Auburn

Mississippi St.

47 1/2

Under

Indiana

Michigan St.

44 1/2

Under

Rutgers

Michigan

49

Under

Old Dominion

East Carolina

48

Under

Wisconsin

Northwestern

47

Under

Central Michigan

Western Michigan

60

Under

Indianapolis

Oakland

44 1/2

Over

Note: Check back with us on Friday.  We just may have another special or specials for you, but nothing like what we have issued in the past.  We are looking at a money line parlay or two that could produce odds of better than +500, and another one at odds of better than +1500!  And, best of all, neither the Miami Dolphins nor the UMass Minutemen have to win to make these selections pay off.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 15, 2019

2019 Pac-12 Conference Football Preview

There was a time when the Pac-12 Conference, or one of its predecessor leagues like the Pac-10, Pac-8, Athletic Association of Western Universities, or Pacific Coast Conference was the premier football conference in America.  Southern California, UCLA, Stanford, California, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State have all been elite programs at some point in history.

In recent years, the league has failed to produce a dominant team like the 1954 UCLA Bruins, the 1972 USC Trojans or the 1991 Washington Huskies.  Oregon and Washington have fielded really good teams in this decade, but no Pac-12 team has finished number one since USC won in 2004 with Reggie Bush, LenDale White, and Matt Leinart starred at the LA Coliseum.

While the Pac-12 champion has been a touchdown to 10 points weaker than the SEC Champion in the last decade, the bottom teams in the league have been better than other conferences’ bottom teams.  Since moving from eight to nine conference games in 2006, in 10 of the 12 years, at least one team and in many cases two teams have come up one win short of bowl eligibility.  Only Oregon in 2010 has been able to go 9-0 in the league and win the Pac-12 Championship Game as well.

Will this be the year that one team emerges from the pack to earn the league’s first playoff spot since Washington in 2016?  The odds say it won’t happen this year.  The league is too balanced, and there are no dominant teams.  It also doesn’t help that the two leading contenders for the conference championship must face off in an interdivisional game, and chances are high the two teams could split those games.

Here is how the Pac-12 Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Pac-12 Media Poll
 

 

North Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Oregon 17 190
2 Washington 17 189
3 Stanford 0 129
4 Washington St. 1 108
5 California 0 81
6 Oregon St. 0 38
 

 

South Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall Votes
1 Utah 33 206
2 USC 2 167
3T Arizona St. 0 118
3T UCLA 0 118
5 Arizona 0 85
6 Colorado 0 46
 

 

Championship Game Winner Overall Votes
Utah 12
Oregon 11
Washington 9
USC 2
Washington St. 1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Pac-12
 

 

North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oregon 113.6 113.5 114.9 114.0
Washington 112.5 111.9 113.6 112.7
Washington St. 111.8 110.7 112.0 111.5
Stanford 108.5 107.5 108.6 108.2
California 106.8 107.0 108.1 107.3
Oregon St. 95.1 96.2 93.9 95.1
 

 

South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Utah 116.4 114.7 116.6 115.9
Arizona St. 107.7 106.6 108.3 107.6
U C L A 107.6 106.9 106.8 107.1
U S C 104.0 105.2 104.4 104.6
Arizona 101.7 102.0 102.2 102.0
Colorado 99.8 99.0 99.9 99.5
 

 

Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.4 107.1

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
 

North Division

Pos Team Conference Overall
1 Washington 8-1 11-2
2 Oregon 7-2 9-3
3 Stanford 6-3 7-5
4 Washington St. 5-4 8-4
5 California 3-6 5-7
6 Oregon St. 0-9 1-11
 

 

South Division

Pos Team Conference Overall
1 Utah 7-2 11-2*
2 UCLA 5-4 6-6
3 Arizona St. 4-5 6-6
4 USC 4-5 5-7
5 Arizona 3-6 5-7
6 Colorado 1-8 3-9
*  

Utah picked to win Pac-12 Championship Game

 

As you can see, if our predictions are correct, three Pac-12 teams will miss bowl eligibility by one game, most likely because rather than playing an easy Group of 5 or FCS opponent, they will be playing a ninth conference game.

 

Bowl Predictions Team
Playoffs Not This Year
Rose Utah
Cotton Washington
Alamo Oregon
Holiday Washington St.
Redbox Stanford
Sun Arizona St.
Vegas UCLA
Cheez-it (At-large team needed)

 

Coaches That Could Move Up To Major Programs

None, but Stanford’s David Shaw has been rumored for years to be in the mix for a future NFL head coaching position.

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Clay Helton, USC

Helton begins the year with the hottest seat in college football.  He better win the BYU game in Provo, or who knows?  He could be met with his pink slip on the airport tarmac.  The Trojans’ schedule is a nightmare for a coach on the hot seat.  As if playing nine tough conference games isn’t enough, USC’s out-of-conference slate includes Fresno State, BYU, and Notre Dame.  If the Trojans go 2-1 in these games and then go 7-2 in the Pac-12 to win the South Division flag, Helton might keep his job.  Anything less, and Athletics Director Lynn Swann will have to make a move, assuming he still has his job.  Just remember, it only takes Urban Meyer one year to feel healthy enough to coach again.  There are also excellent options in Chris Peterson, Matt Campbell, Dino Babers, and even a current NFL coach.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, Oregon

J. T. Daniels, USC

K.J. Costello, Stanford

Khalil Tate, Arizona

Keep eyes on Washington’s Jacob Eason and Washington State’s Gage Gebrud.

 

Top Offense

Oregon

Utah

Washington

 

Top Defense

California

Utah

Oregon

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Big 12 Conference–Oklahoma loses Heisman Trophy quarterback Kyler Murray and replaces him with former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts.  Will Hurts make a run at the hardware competing against his former teammate?

Can Texas build upon their progress made last year, or will Iowa State or Baylor emerge as the principle rival to the Sooners this year?

 

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