PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 9 , 2018

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads For Conference Tournament Games

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Cincinnati	SMU	12.5
Tulsa	Memphis	4.3
Wichita St.	Temple	8.4
Houston	Central Florida	7.3
Rhode Island	VCU	8.5
St. Joseph’s	George Mason	6.2
St. Bonaventure	Richmond	8.9
Davidson	St. Louis	7.1
Virginia	Clemson	5.8
Duke	North Carolina	3.1
Kansas	Kansas St.	5.3
Texas Tech	West Virginia	-0.6
Xavier	Providence	8.0
Villanova	Butler	8.9
Montana	Northern Colorado	2.6
Southern Utah	Eastern Washington	-7.8
UC-Davis	Cal St. Fullerton	2.6
UCSB	UC-Irvine	1.1
Marshall	Southern Miss.	6.8
Old Dominion	Western Kentucky	-1.1
Buffalo	Kent St.	10.3
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	2.3
Hampton	North Carolina A&T	3.5
UNC-Central	Morgan St.	0.7
Nevada	San Diego St.	4.4
New Mexico	Utah St.	2.2
Arizona	UCLA	1.9
USC	Oregon	2.6
Auburn	Alabama	6.4
Kentucky	Georgia	4.9
Tennessee	Mississippi St.	6.4
Florida	Arkansas	1.7
SE Louisiana	Sam Houston St.	0.8
Nicholls St.	Stephen F. Austin	-4.8
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	Southern	-0.7
Prairie View A&M	Texas Southern	0.1
UL-Lafayette	Texas St.	11.2
UT-Arlington	Appalachian St.	4.7
Georgia St.	UL-Monroe	7.3
Georgia Southern	Troy	0.9
Utah Valley	Grand Canyon	2.4
New Mexico St.	Seattle	10.9

No Automatic Bids Handed Out Last Night and None Will Be Handed Out Tonight

Teams Already In The Field of 68

Team	Bid	Conf.	W-L	Avg Score
Bucknell	AUTO	Patriot	25-9	81-73
Charleston	AUTO	CAA	26-7	75-69
Gonzaga	AUTO	WCC	30-4	85-67
Iona	AUTO	MAAC	20-13	80-76
Lipscomb	AUTO	A-SUN	23-9	83-78
Long Island	AUTO	NEC	18-16	78-77
Loyola (Chi.)	AUTO	MVC	28-5	72-62
Michigan	AUTO	BTen	28-7	75-64
Murray St.	AUTO	OVC	26-5	77-66
Radford	AUTO	B-South	22-12	67-64
South Dakota St.	AUTO	Summit	28-6	85-74
UNC-Greensboro	AUTO	SoCon	27-7	74-62
Wright St.	AUTO	Horizon	25-9	72-66

Conference Tournaments In Action On Friday

All Times are Eastern Standard

American Athletic Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Cincinnati	#9 SMU	ESPN2
2:30 PM	#4 Tulsa	#5 Memphis	ESPN2
6:00 PM	#2 Wichita St.	#7 Temple	ESPNU
8:30 PM	#3 Houston	#6 Central Florida	ESPNU
Semifinals–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	Cinti or SMU	Tulsa or Memphis	CBS
3:30 PM	Wichita St. or Temple	Houston or Central Fla.	CBS
Championship–March 11
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
3:00 PM			CBS

There are still a couple of potential bid-stealers in this tournament.  Tulsa and Temple are certainly capable of winning the tournament.  A complete defensive gem by the Owls could easily allow TU to pull off the mild upset of Wichita State, while Tulsa can flex its muscle with Cincinnati.  Those matchups are not guaranteed though, and Memphis, SMU, and Central Florida will not lay down and play dead.

 

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Rhode Island	#8 VCU	NBCSN
2:30 PM	#4 St. Joseph’s	#5 George Mason	NBCSN
6:00 PM	#2 St. Bonaventure	#7 Richmond	NBCSN
8:30 PM	#3 Davidson	#6 St. Louis	NBCSN
Semifinals–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	URI or VCU	St. Joes or G. Mason	CBSSN
3:30 PM	St. Bon. or Richmond	Davidson or STL	CBSSN
Championship–March 11
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			CBS

We are keeping a sharp eye on Davidson, as long as the Wildcats remain in the tournament.  The top two seeds are not so superior to the rest of the league that a team from the back of the pack couldn’t win this tournament.  Davidson is not only capable, they are peaking at the right time.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Virginia	#4 Clemson	TBA
9:00 PM	#2 Duke	#6 North Carolina	TBA
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:30 PM	Virginia or Clemson	Duke or North Carolina	ESPN

What could be better than Duke and Carolina on a neutral court in March?  Only if this was two weeks later in March.  Virginia is merely the top team in the nation with an incredible defense to go with an underrated offense.  This Cavs team certainly has the look of a Final Four team, and if they cut down the nets in Brooklyn, they will most likely be the overall number one seed.

 

Big 12 Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	#1 Kansas	#4 Kansas St.	ESPN2
9:00 PM	#2 Texas Tech	#3 West Virginia	ESPN2
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Kansas or Kansas St.	Texas Tech or West Va.	ESPN

The top four seeds advanced, which in this conference is a minor miracle.  Kansas State is now most likely safely in the field of 68, but the Wildcats might still be looking at a First Four game in Dayton.  An upset win today, would send KSU’s seed line soaring, and it could drop KU to a 2-seed.

The other semifinal game should be quite interesting.  Texas Tech handles pressure well, but West Virginia’s pressure is another story, especially this late in the season.

 

Big East Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	#1 Xavier	#5 Providence	FS1
9:00 PM	#2 Villanova	#6 Butler	FS1
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	Xavier or Prov.	Villanova or Butler	Fox

All four semifinalists are safely in the NCAA Tournament field, and Xavier and Villanova have most likely secured number one seeds.  This should still be an interesting couple of rounds, especially if Xavier and Villanova meet for a third time.

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:30 PM	#1 Montana	#5 Northern Colorado	Pluto tv
11:00 PM	#10 Southern Utah	#3 Eastern Washington	Pluto tv
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:00 PM	Montana or N. Color.	S. Utah or E. Wash.	ESPNU

Montana’s path to the automatic bid got a bit easier with 2-seed Idaho losing yesterday, but the Grizzlies still have work to do in this one-bid league.  Eastern Washington is blistering hot with a seven-game winning streak, which includes a win over Montana.  At this point , the Eagles are a better team than the Grizzlies.

 

Big West Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:30 PM	#1 UC-Davis	#4 Cal St. Fullerton	ESPN3
11:55 PM	#2 UCSB	#3 UC-Irvine	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
11:55 PM	UC-Davis or CS Fullerton	UCSB or UC-Irvine	ESPN2

The top four seeds advanced to the semifinals, and this one is a complete toss-up.  If they staged this tournament 40 times, each of the four might win it 10 times.  Cal State Fullerton swept top-seed UC-Davis, but our money is on Davis and Irvine advancing.

 

Conference USA Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:30 PM	#4 Marshall	#9 Southern Miss.	CBSSN
4:00 PM	#2 Old Dominion	#3 Western Kentucky	CBSSN
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:30 PM	Marshall or Southern Miss	ODU or WKU	CBSSN

There might be a bid stolen here.  Top-seed Middle Tennessee was hit by the upset bug last night, as Southern Mississippi looked like the better team for most of the night.  The Blue Raiders have now dropped their last two games, and their resume is iffy.  In years prior to the new selection committee criteria, Middle wouldn’t even be in contention.  Road wins over Murray State and Western Kentucky still make for a thin resume.

The one sure thing is that somebody other than Middle will win an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.  Old Dominion and Western Kentucky should have a fantastic semifinal game tonight, but we are more interested in Marshall.  The Thundering Herd might be the toughest matchup out of this league for a team that has not seen Marshall play.

By the way, if you were wondering about the two court setup for this tournament, you could definitely hear the bands and public address system from court B during court A games.  On the other hand, you could position yourself in such a way in the football stands that you could watch both games at the same time.

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	#1 Buffalo	#5 Kent St.	CBSSN
9:00 PM	#2 Toledo	#3 Eastern Michigan	See *
* This game will be available at cbssports.com
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	Buffalo or Kent St.	Toledo or EMU	ESPN2

At one point this season, we thought that Buffalo was a possible Sweet 16 team, but the Bulls peaked in late January and have sort of coasted home with the top seed.  Toledo looked like a better team in early February.  Then, just as quick as a person could notice the change, things reversed.  Buffalo regained their composure and reached another peak, while Toledo stagnated.

Have you ever watched a horse race where the top two horses fought hard down the backstretch, fighting for the lead, and then from out of nowhere another horse comes from off the pace to put the two co-leaders away?  Well, we are sort of getting that feeling like Buffalo and Toledo are those two co-leading horses, and while few are noticing, Eastern Michigan is making a gallant effort for the lead in a 3-wide bid at the turn.

EMU has quietly won seven games in a row and nine of 10.  In that time, they have won by having outstanding shooting nights, coming up with incredible defensive efforts, and many ways in between.  Coach Rob Murphy has a reputation for developing small forwards and power forwards,  and he has the league’s best tandem in Elijah Minnie and James Thompson.  Throw in a competent backcourt general in Paul Jackson, and EMU may be the real team to beat in Cleveland.

 

Mountain West Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM	#1 Nevada	#5 San Diego St.	CBSSN
11:30 PM	#3 New Mexico	#7 Utah St.	CBSSN
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Nevada or SDSU	New Mexico or Utah St.	CBS

Nevada is one of those teams that many college basketball experts believed had Sweet 16 potential.  The Wolf Pack certainly looked capable of winning twice in the NCAA Tournament, and maybe even challenging to become another Butler or VCU, but in the last two weeks, Nevada has not looked as sharp as they did earlier in the year.

Boise State laid an egg yesterday, falling to Utah State, while San Diego State and New Mexico played stellar defense and advanced.  We can make a case where SDSU or New Mexico could win the tournament and steal a bid, but we also believe that Coach Eric Musselman will figure out a way to guide his Wolf Pack to the tournament title and keep Nevada in contention for a single-digit seed.

It might be ugly and a bit sloppy, but the New Mexico-San Diego State game might be one you want to watch.  The Lobos’ press defense is looking as strong as Press Virginia’s, while SDSU’s half-court pressure defense is starting to look like the 2014 team that led Arizona late in the second half in the Elite 8.

 

Pacific 12 Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM	#1 Arizona	#4 UCLA	Pac12
11:30 PM	#2 USC	#6 Oregon	FS1
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
10:00 PM	Arizona or UCLA	USC or Oregon	FS1

The Pac-12 brass is feeling a little better this morning than this time yesterday, as UCLA and USC won to most likely secure NCAA Tournament berths.  At this time yesterday, there was a possibility that this could become a one-bid league.  With Oregon coming from behind to edge Utah, the Ducks are still in the running for the automatic bid and capable of winning it tomorrow night.  So, this could go from a possible one-bid league to a four-bid league in 48 hours!

Southeastern Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	#1 Auburn	#9 Alabama	ESPN
3:30 PM	#4 Kentucky	#12 Georgia	ESPN
7:00 PM	#2 Tennessee	#7 Mississippi St.	SECTV
9:30 PM	#3 Florida	#6 Arkansas	SECTV
Semifinals–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	Auburn or Alabama	Kentucky or Georgia	ESPN
3:30 PM	Tennessee or Mississippi St.	Florida or Arkansas	ESPN
Championship–March 4
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			ESPN

The quasi-home team Missouri was dismissed from the tournament by Georgia yesterday, and now we think this could turn into the UKIT like many past SEC Tournaments.  St. Louis will be painted royal blue while Kentucky continues to remain in the tournament, and the path to the trophy has split open like the parting of the Red Sea.  The Wildcats get a fatigued Georgia team that does not match up all that well with Kentucky’s size.  Then, if the Wildcats win, they would face either a wounded Auburn team lacking any big man talent or an Alabama team that we cannot see beating Kentucky.  It would place the Wildcats in the Championship Game on Sunday.

The other side of the bracket is more exciting.  Mississippi State is fighting for some respect and needs two more wins just to get into the Bubble discussion.  They lost at home to Tennessee last week by 20 points.  Arkansas and Florida are similar in talent and playing style.  Whichever team can sink the threes will most likely win.

A Kentucky-Tennessee final would be quite interesting and very possible.

Southland Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#1 SE Louisiana	#4 Sam Houston St.	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#2 Nicholls St.	#3 Stephen F. Austin	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM	SE La. or SHSU	Nicholls or SF Austin	ESPN2

We talked about it yesterday.  Stephen F. Austin is like a champion race horse that lost its previous race and is no longer the favorite.  Two other horses, Southeast Louisiana and Nicholls State, have led this 10-furlong race through the first mile and do not appear to be slowing down as they entire the stretch.  Will SFA make its vaunted stretch run like it has in so many other races in the past, or is this horse going to putter out and watch the two new studs battle it out for supremacy?

What do we think?  We think Stephen F. Austin still has one incredible run left in this race, and we believe the Lumberjacks will cross the line ahead of the two co-favorites.

 

Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
3:30 PM	#1 Arkansas-Pine Bluff	#4 Southern	TBA
9:30 PM	#2 Prairie View A&M	#3 Texas Southern	TBA
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
3:00 PM	UAPB or Southern	PVAM or TSU	ESPN2

The top four seeds advanced to the semifinals, and there is now a remote chance that this league could avoid a trip to Dayton if a couple of long shots win the remaining low-major tournaments.  If Prairie View wins the tournament, they will be 18-17, but the other three teams would have losing records (Pine Bluff has 20 losses), so it would be a given that any of the three would be forced to play in Dayton.

 

Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:30 PM	#1 UL-Lafayette	#9 Texas St.	ESPN3
3:00 PM	#4 UT-Arlington	#5 Appalachian St.	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#2 Georgia St.	#7 UL-Monroe	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#3 Georgia Southern	#6 Troy	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:30 PM	UL-Lafayette or Texas St.	UT-Arlington or Appy St.	ESPN3
3:00 PM	Ga. St. or UL-Monroe	Geo. Southern or Troy	ESPN3
Championship–March 11
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
2:00 PM			ESPN2

Louisiana Lafayette faces some stiff competition against three or four possible upset-minded foes.  The Ragin’ Cajuns will only earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament field if it is automatic, but they will not coast to the bid.  Georgia State and Georgia Southern are almost as talented as ULL.

Texas State had lost nine games in a row prior to yesterday’s mild upset over Coastal Carolina.  Louisiana should romp today to make the semifinals, but things will get much tougher tomorrow if UT-Arlington also wins today.

 

Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM	#2 Utah Valley	#3 Grand Canyon	ESPN3
11:30 PM	#1 New Mexico St.	#4 Seattle	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
10:00 PM	UVU or GCU	NMSU or Seattle	ESPNU

We watched the WAC games yesterday and came away impressed with the four winners.  New Mexico State looked to be clicking on all cylinders again, and maybe the Aggies are primed to peak at the right time.  On paper, Seattle should not compete with NMSU, but the Redhawks split with the Aggies during the regular season and will not be intimidated.

The Utah Valley-Grand Canyon game will be ugly to watch but exciting at the same time.  60 points will most likely win this game, and the 60 will not be due to slow pace.  Two hustling defenses with blood and guts being spilled on the backboard and floor should make this game a war of attrition.  The only issue will be whether or not the winner has anything left in the tank to face New Mexico State or Seattle tomorrow.  You might can tell that we will be watching this tournament again tonight.

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PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 8 , 2018

Thursday’s PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Spreads

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Spread
Connecticut	SMU	-5.7
Memphis	South Florida	7.4
Temple	Tulane	5.7
Central Florida	East Carolina	13.2
VCU	Dayton	1.3
George Mason	Massachusetts	-0.8
Richmond	Duquesne	0.9
St. Louis	George Washington	3.3
Virginia	Louisville	6.9
Clemson	Boston College	5.6
Duke	Notre Dame	9.3
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	-6.4
Kansas St.	TCU	-3.4
Kansas	Oklahoma St.	5.4
Texas Tech	Texas	4.7
West Virginia	Baylor	4.0
Xavier	St. John’s	7.4
Creighton	Providence	5.2
Villanova	Marquette	11.1
Seton Hall	Butler	-0.4
Montana	North Dakota	11.5
Weber St.	Northern Colorado	-2.0
Idaho	Southern Utah	9.4
Eastern Washington	Portland St.	1.6
UC-Davis	UC-Riverside	9.0
Cal St. Fullerton	Long Beach St.	1.6
UC-Irvine	Hawaii	4.5
UCSB	Cal Poly	12.4
Middle Tennessee	Southern Miss.	13.5
Marshall	UTSA	3.2
Old Dominion	Louisiana Tech	7.0
Western Kentucky	UAB	3.5
Buffalo	Central Michigan	7.1
Ball St.	Kent St.	3.2
Toledo	Miami (O)	5.6
Eastern Michigan	Akron	6.8
Savannah St.	UNC-Central	-1.8
North Carolina A&T	Norfolk St.	-0.1
Nevada	UNLV	8.8
Fresno St.	San Diego St.	-1.4
Boise St.	Utah St.	7.4
New Mexico	Wyoming	0.1
Arizona	Colorado	8.3
UCLA	Stanford	3.9
USC	Oregon St.	4.7
Utah	Oregon	0.4
Texas A&M	Alabama	2.3
Missouri	Georgia	2.4
Mississippi St.	LSU	-0.5
Arkansas	South Carolina	4.2
Sam Houston St.	New Orleans	2.0
Stephen F. Austin	Central Arkansas	5.3
Grand Canyon	UMKC	11.1
Utah Valley	Cal St. Bakersfield	10.2
New Mexico St.	Chicago St.	25.4
Seattle	Texas-Rio Grande Valley	3.4

One Team Earned An Automatic NCAA Tournament Bid on Wednesday

Patriot League Tournament
Bucknell 83	Colgate 54

No Automatic NCAA Tournament Bids Will Be Issued on Thursday

Teams That Have Earned An Automatic NCAA Tournament Bid

Team	Bid	Conf.	W-L
Bucknell	AUTO	Patriot	25-9
Charleston	AUTO	CAA	26-7
Gonzaga	AUTO	WCC	30-4
Iona	AUTO	MAAC	20-13
Lipscomb	AUTO	A-SUN	23-9
Long Island	AUTO	NEC	18-16
Loyola (Chi.)	AUTO	MVC	28-5
Michigan	AUTO	BTen	28-7
Murray St.	AUTO	OVC	26-5
Radford	AUTO	B-South	22-12
South Dakota St.	AUTO	Summit	28-6
UNC-Greensboro	AUTO	SoCon	27-7
Wright St.	AUTO	Horizon	25-9

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

American Athletic Conference Tournament
Orlando, FL
First 3 Rounds EST/Championship EDT
First Round–March 8
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 Connecticut	#9 SMU	ESPNU
2:30 PM	#5 Memphis	#12 South Florida	ESPNU
6:00 PM	#7 Temple	#10 Tulane	ESPNU
8:30 PM	#6 Central Florida	#11 East Carolina	ESPNU
Quarterfinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Cincinnati	UConn or SMU	ESPN2
2:30 PM	#4 Tulsa	Memphis or USF	ESPN2
6:00 PM	#2 Wichita St.	Temple or Tulane	ESPNU
8:30 PM	#3 Houston	UCF or ECU	ESPNU
Semifinals–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	Cin/UConn/SMU	Tulsa/Mem/USF	CBS
3:30 PM	2, 7, or 10	Hou/UCF/ECU	CBS
Championship–March 11
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
3:00 PM			CBS

The top three seeds have NCAA bids guaranteed at this point, so it will take a 4-seed or lower for a bid to be stolen from this league.  Tulsa has promise.  On a given day, they can compete with the top three.  However, in order to win the conference tournament, Tulsa will have to have three solid given days and wins most likely over Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wichita St.  It isn’t very likely to happen.

On a neutral floor, Cincinnati’s great defense and Wichita State’s great offense should be adequate in stopping the rest of the league, and a rubber game between the top two teams is highly likely.

 

 

Big West Conference Tournament
Anaheim, CA
Top 8 Teams Qualify & Tournament Re-seeds for Semifinals
All Times PST
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 UC-Davis	#8 UC-Riverside	FSWest
2:30 PM	#4 Cal St. Fullerton	#5 Long Beach St.	FSWest
6:00 PM	#3 UC-Irvine	#6 Hawaii	FSWest
8:30 PM	#2 UCSB	#7 Cal Poly	FSWest
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	Highest Remaining	Lowest Remaining	ESPN3
9:00 PM	2nd Highest	3rd Highest	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
9:00 PM			ESPN2

In a one-bid league, the action is always exciting, as one slip up means curtains for any team.  In the Big West this year, no team has stepped up to become dominant over the rest of the league, and that should mean this tournament will be extremely exciting.

UC-Davis won its final five games of the regular season, but the Aggies won two of those games in overtime and another by just a point.  They were swept by 4th-seed Cal State Fullerton, a team that UCD would probably face again in the semifinals.

UCSB may have the best overall talent.  The Gauchos handle the ball better than any other team in the league, but they seldom force their opponents into mistakes.  They would need to be hot from the field to win the tournament.

 

Western Athletic Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time	Home	Visitors	TV
12:00 PM	#3 Grand Canyon	#6 UMKC	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#2 Utah Valley	#7 Cal St. Bakersfield	ESPN3
6:00 PM	#1 New Mexico St.	#8 Chicago St.	ESPN3
8:30 PM	#4 Seattle	#5 Texas-Rio Grande Valley	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	GCU or UMKC	UVU or CSUB	ESPN3
8:30 PM	NMSU or CSU	Seattle or TRGV	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPNU

Sometimes, it’s the little known conference tournaments that provide both the most intrigue and excitement.  We here on the PiRate ship may be a little loopy from recent rough waters, but in our opinion, this might be the best conference tournament of all!

Start with New Mexico St.  The Aggies looked unbeatable in conference action earlier in the season.  Easy double digit wins over the top three contenders made the WAC race look insignificant after January.  Then, something changed.  Seattle, Grand Canyon, and Utah Valley started to hit their stride.  The race tightened in February, and NMSU lost back-to-back games against Utah Valley and Seattle, after narrowly beating Grand Canyon at home.

NMSU beat Miami and almost beat USC in Hawaii in November.  They still enter this tournament as the team to beat with exceptional offensive and defensive competence.  However, one cold shooting streak or maybe a hot perimeter streak by an opponent could be enough to turn one game around.

Grand Canyon is the hot team entering the conference tournament.  The Antelopes are an extension of Coach Dan Majerle.  Thunder Dan saved his best for the NBA Playoffs, and GCU will most likely be ready to play from the get-go.

If you are looking for a league tourney other than your favorite team’s league tourney, or just want to have some great late night entertainment, tune into the WAC Tournament.

Conference Tournaments Continuing Today

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Second Round–March 8–Times EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 VCU	#9 Dayton	NBCSN
2:30 PM	#5 George Mason	#13 Massachusetts	NBCSN
6:00 PM	#7 Richmond	#10 Duquesne	NBCSN
8:30 PM	#6 St. Louis	#11 George Washington	NBCSN
Quarterfinals–March 9 EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Rhode Island	VCU or Dayton	NBCSN
2:30 PM	#4 St. Joseph’s	GMU/UMass	NBCSN
6:00 PM	#2 St. Bonaventure	Richmond or Duquesne	NBCSN
8:30 PM	#3 Davidson	St. Louis or GWU	NBCSN
Semifinals–March 10 EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM	URI/VCU/Dayton	StJo/GMU/LaSalle/UMass	CBSSN
3:30 PM	StBon/Rich/Duq	Dav/Stl/GWU/Fordham	CBSSN
Championship–March 11  EDT
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			CBS

 

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8  EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Virginia	#9 Louisville	ESPN
2:00 PM	#4 Clemson	#12 Boston College	ESPN
7:00 PM	#2 Duke	#10 Notre Dame	ESPN
9:00 PM	#3 Miami (Fla.)	#6 North Carolina	ESPN
Semifinals–March 9   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM	Virginia or Louisville	Clemson or Boston Coll.	TBA
9:00 PM	Duke or Notre Dame	Miami or North Carolina	TBA
Championship–March 10   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:30 PM			ESPN

 

Big 12 Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8  CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
11:30 AM	#4 Kansas St.	#5 TCU	ESPN2
1:30 PM	#1 Kansas	#8 Oklahoma St.	ESPN2
6:00 PM	#2 Texas Tech	#7 Texas	ESPNU
8:00 PM	#3 West Virginia	#6 Baylor	ESPNU
Semifinals–March 9  CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Kansas or Okla. St.	Kan St. or TCU	ESPN2
8:00 PM	Texas Tech or Texas	WVU or Baylor	ESPN2
Championship–March 10  CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM			ESPN

 

Big East Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8  EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Xavier	#9 St. John’s	FS1
2:30 PM	#4 Creighton	#5 Providence	FS1
7:00 PM	#2 Villanova	#7 Marquette	FS1
9:30 PM	#3 Seton Hall	#6 Butler	FS1
Semifinals–March 9   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	Xavier or St. John’s	Creighton or Providence	FS1
9:00 PM	Villanova or Marquette	S. Hall or Butler	FS1
Championship–March 10  EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM			Fox

 

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8  PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Montana	#8 North Dakota	Pluto tv
2:30 PM	#4 Weber St.	#5 Northern Colorado	Pluto tv
5:30 PM	#2 Idaho	#10 Southern Utah	Pluto tv
8:00 PM	#3 Eastern Washington	#6 Portland St.	Pluto tv
Semifinals–March 9   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:30 PM	Mont/UND	Weber/N. Colorado	Pluto tv
8:00 PM	Idaho/S.Utah	E.Washington/Portland St.	Pluto tv
Championship–March 10   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM			ESPNU

 

Conference USA Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#1 Middle Tennessee	#9 Southern Miss.	Stadium
6:30 PM	#4 Marshall	#5 UTSA	Stadium
8:30 PM	#2 Old Dominion	#10 Louisiana Tech	Stadium
9:00 PM	#3 Western Kentucky	#6 UAB	Stadium
Semifinals–March 9   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:30 PM	MTSU or Southern Miss	Marshall or UTSA	CBSSN
3:00 PM	ODU or La. Tech	Western Ky. or UAB	CBSSN
Championship–March 10   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:30 PM			CBSSN

 

Mid-American Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Buffalo	#8 Central Michigan	ESPN3
2:30 PM	#4 Ball St.	#5 Kent St.	ESPN3
6:30 PM	#2 Toledo	#7 Miami (O)	ESPN3
9:00 PM	#3 Eastern Michigan	#11 Akron	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 9   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:30 PM	Buff/CMU	Ball/Kent	CBSSN
9:00 PM	Tol/Mia	EMU/Akron	See *
* This game will be available at cbssports.com
Championship–March 10   EST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#3 Savannah St.	#6 UNC-Central	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#4 North Carolina A&T	#5 Norfolk St.	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 9
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	#1 Hampton	NCAT/Norfolk St	ESPN3
8:00 PM	#7 Morgan St.	Sav/UNCC	ESPN3
Championship–March 10
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
1:00 PM			ESPN2

 

Mountain West Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Nevada	#8 UNLV	CBSSN
2:30 PM	#4 Fresno St.	#5 San Diego St.	CBSSN
6:00 PM	#2 Boise St.	#7 Utah St.	CBSSN
8:30 PM	#3 New Mexico	#6 Wyoming	CBSSN
Semifinals–March 9   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Nevada or UNLV	FSU or SDSU	CBSSN
8:30 PM	Boise St. or Utah St.	New Mexico or Wyoming	CBSSN
Championship–March 10   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
3:00 PM			CBS

 

Pacific 12 Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Arizona	#8 Colorado	Pac12
2:30 PM	#4 UCLA	#5 Stanford	Pac12
6:00 PM	#2 USC	#10 Oregon St.	Pac12
8:30 PM	#3 Utah	#6 Oregon	FS1
Semifinals–March 9   PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
6:00 PM	Arizona or Colorado	UCLA or Stanford	Pac12
8:30 PM	USC or Oregon St.	Utah or Oregon	FS1
Championship–March 10  PST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
7:00 PM			FS1

 

Southeastern Conference Tournament
Second Round–March 8  CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#8 Texas A&M	#9 Alabama	SECTV
2:30 PM	#5 Missouri	#12 Georgia	SECTV
6:00 PM	#7 Mississippi St.	#10 LSU	SECTV
8:30 PM	#6 Arkansas	#11 South Carolina	SECTV
Quarterfinals–March 9   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	#1 Auburn	A&M or Alabama	ESPN
2:30 PM	#4 Kentucky	Missouri or Georgia	ESPN
6:00 PM	#2 Tennessee	Miss St. or LSU	SECTV
8:30 PM	#3 Florida	Arkansas or S. Carolina	SECTV
Semifinals–March 10   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM	Aub/A&M/Alabama	UK/MO/GA	ESPN
2:30 PM	UT/MSU/LSU	Fla/Ark/USC/OM	ESPN
Championship–March 4   CDT
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
12:00 PM			ESPN

 

Southland Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals–March 8   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#4 Sam Houston St.	#5 New Orleans	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#3 Stephen F. Austin	#7 Central Arkansas	ESPN3
Semifinals–March 9   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
5:00 PM	#1 SE Louisiana	Sam Houston or UNO	ESPN3
7:30 PM	#2 Nicholls St.	SF Austin or Cent. Ark.	ESPN3
Championship–March 10   CST
Time	Higher Seed	Lower Seed	TV
8:00 PM			ESPN2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for March 5, 2018

The Bracket Gurus are doing double duty this week having to keep up with the conference tournaments every day as well as the bracketology.

The Gurus are starting to come to a consensus, as there were only 72 teams that received votes this week, meaning we only have a Top 4 out and not Next 4, since our geniuses feel there are no other teams that as of now have any shot at receiving an at-large invitation.

Consider this: as of today, there have been no teams that have gone from out to in based on their showing in their conference tournaments.  Nebraska failed to show up in the Big Ten Conference Tournament, while Penn State fell one round short of mattering.

Of course, except for the Big Ten Conference, all the power leagues that could possibly produce a team that might win enough to move into consideration have yet to begin conference tournament play.  There are a few teams remaining that still have remote at-large life.  These are:

ACC: Syracuse and Louisville

Big East: Marquette

Big 12: Oklahoma St.

Mountain West: Boise St.

Pac-12: Utah and Washington

SEC: LSU, Georgia, and Mississippi St.

There is the opposite to this discussion.  There are a host of teams that if they lose on the first day or even second day of their tournament, they could fall from in to out.  Another factor that could push these teams out is if upset winners claim automatic bids.  These are the teams that are hanging on by a thread at the current time.

Big 12: Baylor, Kansas St., and Texas

Big East: Providence

Pac-12: USC, Arizona St., and UCLA

SEC: Alabama

West Coast: Saint Mary’s

Which dark horse teams could make a run to an upset championship in each power conference?  (Does not include teams currently on the Bubble)

American: Tulsa

Atlantic 10: Davidson

ACC: Notre Dame

Big 12: None, because all that’s left is Iowa St. and we do not see the Cyclones winning.

Big East: St. John’s

Pac-12: Stanford

SEC: South Carolina

West Coast: BYU

Here are the seeds as our Bracket Gurus predict.  Teams in RED have clinched an automatic bid.

Seed	Team	Conference
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Villanova	B-EAST
1	Xavier	B-EAST
1	Kansas	B12
2	Duke	ACC
2	Purdue	B-TEN
2	Michigan St.	B-TEN
2	Auburn	SEC
3	North Carolina	ACC
3	Cincinnati	AAC
3	Tennessee	SEC
3	Texas Tech	B12
4	Wichita St.	AAC
4	Michigan	B-TEN
4	West Virginia	B12
4	Arizona	PAC-12
5	Clemson	ACC
5	Gonzaga	WCC
5	Ohio St.	B-TEN
5	Kentucky	SEC
6	Florida	SEC
6	Houston	AAC
6	Texas A&M	SEC
6	TCU	B12
7	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
7	Arkansas	SEC
7	Seton Hall	B-EAST
7	Nevada	MWC
8	Rhode Island	A-10
8	Virginia Tech	ACC
8	Missouri	SEC
8	Oklahoma	B12
9	Creighton	B-EAST
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	North Carolina St.	ACC
9	Butler	B-EAST
10	St. Bonaventure	A-10
10	UCLA	PAC-12
10	Middle Tennessee	CUSA
10	Texas	B12
11	Arizona St.	PAC-12
11	Saint Mary’s	WCC
11	Providence	B-EAST
11	USC	PAC-12
11	Alabama	SEC
12	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	Buffalo	MAC
12	Murray St.	OVC
12	Kansas St.	B12
12	Baylor	B12
13	UL-Lafayette	SBC
13	South Dakota St.	SUMMIT
13	Vermont	A-EAST
13	Charleston	CAA
14	UNC-Greensboro	SOCON
14	Bucknell	PATRIOT
14	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
14	Montana	B-SKY
15	UC Davis	B-WEST
15	Wright St.	HORIZON
15	Wagner	NEC
15	Lipscomb	A-SUN
16	Penn	IVY
16	Iona	MAAC
16	Radford	B-SOUTH
16	Hampton	MEAC
16	Nicholls St.	SLC
16	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	SWAC

The First Four in Dayton

USC vs. Baylor

Alabama vs. Kansas St.

Radford vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff

Hampton vs. Nicholls St.

 

Top 4 Out 

Marquette	B-EAST
Syracuse	ACC
Louisville	ACC
Utah	PAC-12

Multiple Bid Leagues

Conference	#
ACC	8
Big 12	8
SEC	8
Big East	6
Big Ten	4
Pac-12	4
American	3
Atlantic 10	2
West Coast	2

There are currently 23, one-bid leagues.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracket Gurus Report for February 12, 2018

What a week in college basketball!  Villanova, Purdue, Duke, and Purdue lost, while Xavier continued to pull victory out of the jaws of defeat twice more.  The Muskateers are one of just two teams from the Queen City of Ohio that might be in line for a number one seed.

How can Cincinnati still be an under-the-radar team?  Look at this program.  The Bearcats are one of three teams that have made the Final Four five consecutive years (UCLA and Duke).  They have won two national titles and appeared in the Championship Game three times.

This Cinti team leads the nation in scoring margin at 20.6.  No team has finished the season with a +20 margin since Kentucky in 1996.  The Bearcats are catlike quick, and they seldom give up an easy shot.  They lead the nation in field goal percenage defense at 36%, and they dominate on the glass, seldom giving up a second shot.

Coach Mick Cronin has comes from an interesting family tree, learning the college game under Bob Huggins and Rick Pitino.  This is the best UC team since Huggins went to the Final Four with Herb Jones, Anthony Buford, and Nick Van Exel, and it could be the best Bearcat team since Ed Jucker took the school to two National Championships and a near miss third.  There are a lot of similarities between this Bearcat team and the 1962 champions.

What Are The Quadrants

With the release of the top 16 seeds a month before the real Selection Sunday, not much new came out of the committee that we did not already know, except for the fact that they seem to be placing even more emphasis this year on how each team did with quadrant wins and losses.

Our captain has already received numerous emails from friends and acquaintances asking him to explain what these quadrants are, so here is the explanation for all.

In the past, the Committee relied on won-loss records against the top 50, the 51-100 teams, the 101-150, and so on.  This was not as indicative of a team’s ability to play against the top teams in the nation as it could be.  A narrow home win over the number 50 team helped the winner a lot more than a narrow loss on the road to the number 51 team.  Teams could schedule 10 home games against opponents in the 51-100 range and go 8-2 due to home court advantage.  Meanwhile, another team might have to play all its marquee games on the road and go 3-7 against teams in the 51-100 range.  Yet, the second team might be considerably stronger than the homer team.

So, there was a change.  Now, there are four quadrants.  The ranking of the teams in each quadrant are different depending on whether a game against an opponent is at home, on a neutral floor, or on the road.  A quadrant one game is one where the home team faces an opponent ranked 1 to 30; is one where a team playing a neutral site game is facing an opponent ranked 1 to 50; or is one where a team playing a true road game is facing an opponent ranked 1 to 75.  Take a look at each quadrant.

Quadrant #1: At Home: 1-30   Neutral Site: 1-50   Road Game: 1-75

Quadrant #2: At Home: 31-75   Neutral Site: 51-100   Road Game: 76-135

Quadrant #3: At Home: 76-160   Neutral Site: 101-200   Road Game: 136-240

Quadrant #4: At Home: 161-351   Neutral Site: 201-351   Road Game 241-351

Let’s look at two teams on the Bubble, one a mid-major and one a power conference team.

Middle Tennessee State has defeated Michigan State and Minnesota in first round games in the last two NCAA Tournaments.  The Blue Raiders lead Conference USA and are listed at the most likely automatic qualifier from the league.  However, CUSA has three additional tough teams, and winning the CUSA Tournament Championship is far from a given for the Blue Raiders.  Currently at 20-5 overall, MTSU has a 1-3 record in Quadrant 1 games, a 4-1 record in Quadrant 2 games, a 4-1 record in Quadrant 3 games, and a 10-0 record in Quadrant 4 games.  Many so-called experts believe that the Blue Raiders would get in as an at-large team if they lost to Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, or Marshall in the CUSA Championship Game.

Now, let’s look at Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers have improved by leaps and bounds since November and early December.  They are 10-4 in the Big Ten, good enough for fourth place, ahead of Michigan.  Yet, the Huskers are deep down on the Bubble and not really a serious contender for an at-large bid on this date.  Why?  First, the Committee does not even look at conference won-loss records.  It may be ridiculous to rule out the fact that Nebraska blew 5th place Michigan off the floor a few weeks ago and at this point of the season are plainly the superior team.  This is not what the Committee will see in the selection room.  What they will see is:

Quadrant 1: 0-6

Quadrant 2: 3-2

Quadrant 3: 7-0

Quadrant 4: 9-0

Comparing Nebraska to Middle Tennessee, the Cornhuskers are just 3-8 in top 2 Quadrant games, while the Blue Raiders are 5-4.  On the type of paper that will count, Middle Tennessee has the better resume.

What this will do is give the Mid-Major powers a better shot at making the field as at-large teams over the power conference teams that would have been sure things a few years ago.  If you are a Nebraska fan, you better hope your Cornhuskers win out to finish the regular season at 14-4 in the Big Ten, and then they win their first Big Ten Tournament game.  Anything short of that, and it’s NIT for Nebraska.

This Week’s Bracketology Gurus Field of 68

Seed	Team	Conference
1	Villanova	B East
1	Virginia	ACC
1	Xavier	B East
1	Purdue	B Ten
2	Kansas	B12
2	Auburn	SEC
2	Duke	ACC
2	Cincinnati	AAC
3	Clemson	ACC
3	Texas Tech	B12
3	North Carolina	ACC
3	Michigan St.	B Ten
4	Tennessee	SEC
4	Ohio St.	B Ten
4	Arizona	Pac12
4	Oklahoma	B12
5	West Virginia	B12
5	Rhode Island	A-10
5	Texas A&M	SEC
5	Gonzaga	WCC
6	Kentucky	SEC
6	Arizona St.	Pac12
6	Wichita St.	AAC
6	Florida	SEC
7	Seton Hall	B East
7	Miami (Fla.)	ACC
7	Creighton	B East
7	Saint Mary’s	WCC
8	Alabama	SEC
8	TCU	B12
8	Missouri	SEC
8	Butler	B East
9	Nevada	MWC
9	Michigan	B Ten
9	Florida St.	ACC
9	Arkansas	SEC
10	Texas	B12
10	Houston	AAC
10	Providence	B East
10	Washington	Pac12
11	Virginia Tech	ACC
11	UCLA	Pac12
11	Middle Tennessee	CUSA
11	New Mexico St.	WAC
12	Loyola (Chi.)	MVC
12	Buffalo	MAC
12	Louisville	ACC
12	Syracuse	ACC
12	North Carolina St.	ACC
12	Kansas St.	B12
13	Vermont	A East
13	East Tennessee St.	SoCon
13	UL-Lafayette	SBC
13	South Dakota	Summit
14	Murray St.	OVC
14	Charleston	CAA
14	Rider	MAAC
14	Montana	B Sky
15	UCSB	B West
15	Northern Kentucky	Horizon
15	Bucknell	Patriot
15	Wagner	NEC
16	Florida GCU	A Sun
16	UNC-Asheville	B Sth
16	Harvard	Ivy
16	SE Louisiana	SLC
16	North Carolina A&T	MEAC
16	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	SWAC
#	Bubble Teams Out	Conference
69	Temple	AAC
70	USC	Pac12
71	Boise State	MWC
72	Mississippi State	SEC
73	LSU	SEC
74	St. Bonaventure	A-10
75	Baylor	B12
76	Maryland	B Ten
77	Nebraska	B Ten
78	Western Kentucky	CUSA

First Four Games in Dayton

Louisville vs. Kansas St.

Syracuse vs. North Carolina St.

Harvard vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Southeast Louisiana vs. North Carolina A&T

Last Four Byes

Providence

Washington

Virginia Tech

UCLA

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for February 9-11, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Note–We add one Friday night game to Include Rhode Island in our coverage.

Friday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Rhode Island	Davidson	6.1

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
South Florida	Temple	-12.5
Wichita St.	Connecticut	18.6
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-4.7
Boston College	Miami (Fla.)	-2.6
Notre Dame	Florida St.	1.5
Virginia	Virginia Tech	12.4
West Virginia	Oklahoma St.	11.8
Baylor	Kansas	-2.6
Iowa St.	Oklahoma	-4.6
TCU	Texas	5.5
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	-2.5
Villanova	Butler	12.5
St. John’s	Marquette	1.0
Creighton	Xavier	1.8
Georgetown	Seton Hall	-4.6
Providence	DePaul	8.9
Maryland	Northwestern	6.6
Michigan St.	Purdue	1.6
Nebraska	Rutgers	9.9
Ohio St.	Iowa	12.3
Air Force	New Mexico	-6.4
Colorado St.	San Jose St.	8.9
Nevada	San Diego St.	7.6
UNLV	Wyoming	7.8
Utah St.	Boise St.	-4.3
Arizona St.	UCLA	5.9
Utah	California	14.4
Oregon St.	Washington	0.3
Arizona	USC	6.6
South Carolina	Florida	-1.7
Missouri	Mississippi St.	5.9
Georgia	Auburn	-6.2
LSU	Ole Miss	4.6
Alabama	Tennessee	-2.6
Texas A&M	Kentucky	3.6
Arkansas	Vanderbilt	8.4
BYU	San Francisco	12.0
Santa Clara	San Diego	-7.0
Loyola Marymount	Pepperdine	7.2
Saint Mary’s	Gonzaga	3.4
Pacific	Portland	9.4
Middle Tennessee	North Texas	14.3
New Mexico St.	Grand Canyon	8.6

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
SMU	Cincinnati	-5.3
Memphis	Central Florida	-0.9
Houston	Tulane	13.8
Pittsburgh	Louisville	-12.0
Syracuse	Wake Forest	6.8
Georgia Tech	Duke	-13.5
Wisconsin	Michigan	-2.6
Illinois	Penn St.	-1.3
Colorado	Stanford	1.7
Oregon	Washington St.	13.1

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank	Team	PiRate	Conf.
1	Villanova	121.4	BIGE
2	Purdue	120.3	BTEN
3	Virginia	119.9	ACC
4	Duke	119.4	ACC
5	Michigan St.	118.4	BTEN
6	Cincinnati	117.8	AAC
7	Kansas	116.7	B12
8	West Virginia	115.8	B12
9	North Carolina	115.7	ACC
10	Auburn	115.6	SEC
11	Tennessee	115.2	SEC
12	Xavier	115.1	BIGE
13	Texas Tech	115.1	B12
14	Gonzaga	114.9	WCC
15	Saint Mary’s	114.8	WCC
16	Wichita St.	114.6	AAC
17	Ohio St.	113.9	BTEN
18	Creighton	113.4	BIGE
19	Clemson	113.2	ACC
20	Florida St.	112.7	ACC
21	Oklahoma	112.6	B12
22	TCU	112.5	B12
23	Butler	112.4	BIGE
24	Arizona	112.4	PAC12
25	Nevada	111.6	MWC

This week, we add three highly-ranked Mid-Major teams that are good enough to receive at-large bids if they fail to win their conference’s automatic bids.  In most likelihood, these three teams would need to at least make the semifinals of their conference tournament.

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Rhode Island	111.1	A-10
New Mexico St.	109.0	WAC
Middle Tennessee	108.8	CUSA

PiRate Ratings By Power Conferences

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Cincinnati	117.8	AAC
Wichita St.	114.6	AAC
Houston	110.6	AAC
SMU	109.0	AAC
Temple	105.4	AAC
UCF	103.6	AAC
Tulsa	102.4	AAC
Tulane	100.3	AAC
Connecticut	99.5	AAC
Memphis	99.2	AAC
East Carolina	91.1	AAC
South Florida	89.9	AAC
Virginia	119.9	ACC
Duke	119.4	ACC
North Carolina	115.7	ACC
Clemson	113.2	ACC
Florida St.	112.7	ACC
Miami FL	111.6	ACC
Louisville	111.4	ACC
Virginia Tech	110.5	ACC
Notre Dame	110.2	ACC
Syracuse	108.6	ACC
North Carolina St.	108.0	ACC
Boston College	105.5	ACC
Wake Forest	105.3	ACC
Georgia Tech	102.9	ACC
Pittsburgh	96.4	ACC
Kansas	116.7	B12
West Virginia	115.8	B12
Texas Tech	115.1	B12
Oklahoma	112.6	B12
TCU	112.5	B12
Baylor	110.6	B12
Texas	110.5	B12
Kansas St.	109.1	B12
Oklahoma St.	107.5	B12
Iowa St.	104.5	B12
Villanova	121.4	BIGE
Xavier	115.1	BIGE
Creighton	113.4	BIGE
Butler	112.4	BIGE
Seton Hall	111.5	BIGE
Marquette	109.2	BIGE
Providence	107.9	BIGE
St. John’s	106.7	BIGE
Georgetown	103.9	BIGE
DePaul	102.5	BIGE
Purdue	120.3	BTEN
Michigan St.	118.4	BTEN
Ohio St.	113.9	BTEN
Michigan	111.6	BTEN
Maryland	110.4	BTEN
Penn St.	109.9	BTEN
Northwestern	107.8	BTEN
Nebraska	107.6	BTEN
Indiana	106.1	BTEN
Minnesota	106.1	BTEN
Wisconsin	105.5	BTEN
Illinois	105.1	BTEN
Iowa	105.1	BTEN
Rutgers	101.2	BTEN
Nevada	111.6	MWC
Boise St.	108.6	MWC
San Diego St.	107.5	MWC
UNLV	106.4	MWC
Fresno St.	106.1	MWC
New Mexico	102.2	MWC
Wyoming	102.1	MWC
Utah St.	100.8	MWC
Colorado St.	96.0	MWC
Air Force	92.8	MWC
San Jose St.	90.6	MWC
Arizona	112.4	PAC12
Arizona St.	111.0	PAC12
USC	109.3	PAC12
UCLA	108.6	PAC12
Oregon	107.1	PAC12
Utah	106.5	PAC12
Washington	104.8	PAC12
Stanford	104.6	PAC12
Colorado	102.8	PAC12
Oregon St.	102.1	PAC12
Washington St.	97.5	PAC12
California	95.6	PAC12
Auburn	115.6	SEC
Tennessee	115.2	SEC
Texas A&M	111.6	SEC
Kentucky	111.5	SEC
Florida	110.9	SEC
Missouri	110.5	SEC
Arkansas	110.3	SEC
Alabama	109.1	SEC
Mississippi St.	108.1	SEC
LSU	106.7	SEC
Georgia	106.4	SEC
South Carolina	105.7	SEC
Vanderbilt	105.4	SEC
Mississippi	105.1	SEC
Gonzaga	114.9	WCC
Saint Mary’s	114.8	WCC
BYU	107.8	WCC
San Diego	101.9	WCC
Pacific	99.6	WCC
San Francisco	99.3	WCC
Portland	93.2	WCC
Loyola Marymount	93.1	WCC
Santa Clara	91.9	WCC
Pepperdine	88.9	WCC

Conference Tournaments Less Than 3 Weeks Away

It seems to have crept up on us this year.  In our environs, it has been a much colder and much wetter winter, the type that makes you feel it will last for a year.  So, it surprised us this morning when one of our followers asked us when we would post the conference tournament schedules like we do every year.

We will get to work on that this week and hopefully will have this in next Friday’s report or in a separate one midweek.

For now, here is a list of the conference tournaments with the dates.  The first action begins in just 17 days.

2018 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS
LEAGUE	DATE	LOCATION
Atlantic Sun	Feb. 26-Mar. 4	Higher Seed
Big South	Feb. 27, Mar. 1-4	Higher Seed
Patriot	Feb. 27, Mar. 1, 4, & 7	Higher Seed
Big Ten	Feb. 28-Mar. 4	New York City
Ohio Valley	Feb. 28, Mar. 1-3	San Antonio
Northeast	Feb. 28, March 3 & 6	Higher Seed
Missouri Valley	Mar. 1-4	St. Louis
Metro Atlantic	Mar. 1-5	Albany, NY
Southern	Mar. 1-5	Asheville, NC
West Coast	Mar. 1-6	Las Vegas
Ivy	Mar. 10-11	Philadelphia
Big West	Mar. 12-14	Anaheim
Horizon	Mar. 2-6	Detroit
Colonial Athletic	Mar. 3-6	N. Charleson, SC
Summit	Mar. 3-6	Sioux Falls, SD
America East	Mar. 3, 6 & 10	Higher Seed
Mideastern Athletic	Mar. 5-10	Norfolk, VA
Mid-American	Mar. 5, 7-10	Higher Seed/Cleveland
Atlantic Coast	Mar. 6-10	Brooklyn
Big Sky	Mar. 6, 8-10	Reno, NV
Southwestern Athletic	Mar. 6, 9-10	Houston
Big East	Mar. 7-10	New York City
Big 12	Mar. 7-10	Kansas City
Conference USA	Mar. 7-10	Frisco, TX
Mountain West	Mar. 7-10	Las Vegas
Pac-12	Mar. 7-10	Las Vegas
Western Athletic	Mar. 7-10	Las Vegas
Atlantic 10	Mar. 7-11	Washington, DC
Southeastern	Mar. 7-11	St. Louis
Southland	Mar. 7-11	Katy, TX
Sun Belt	Mar. 7-11	New Orleans
American Athletic	Mar. 8-11	Orlando

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 27-28, 2018

Spreads For Major Conference Games This Weekend

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Memphis	Cincinnati	-13.8
North Carolina	North Carolina St.	12.2
Duke	Virginia	5.0
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	3.8
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	-9.6
Notre Dame	Virginia Tech	4.8
Louisville	Wake Forest	9.8
South Carolina	Texas Tech	-4.2
Florida	Baylor	5.4
Texas	Ole Miss	7.4
Kansas St.	Georgia	7.8
Alabama	Oklahoma	-1.7
Iowa St.	Tennessee	-5.2
Vanderbilt	TCU	-4.9
Kansas	Texas A&M	10.0
Arkansas	Oklahoma St.	7.4
West Virginia	Kentucky	8.8
Butler	St. John’s	8.5
Creighton	Georgetown	14.5
Penn St.	Rutgers	9.0
Nebraska	Iowa	4.7
San Jose St.	Wyoming	-9.7
Fresno St.	Utah St.	7.6
New Mexico	Colorado St.	9.4
Air Force	Boise St.	-13.2
UNLV	San Diego St.	0.2
Arizona	Utah	10.2
Arizona St.	Colorado	12.1
Oregon	Oregon St.	7.9
UCLA	Stanford	7.5
Auburn	LSU	9.5
Mississippi St.	Missouri	-1.0
Loyola Marymount	San Diego	-3.9
Pepperdine	Santa Clara	1.4
Gonzaga	San Francisco	20.0
BYU	Pacific	12.7
Saint Mary’s	Portland	23.0

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
SMU	East Carolina	22.6
Houston	South Florida	24.1
Wichita St.	Tulsa	16.1
Temple	Connecticut	7.1
Georgia Tech	Clemson	-6.9
Marquette	Villanova	-9.0
DePaul	Seton Hall	-5.0
Maryland	Michigan St.	-5.4
Indiana	Purdue	-13.6
USC	California	17.9
Washington	Washington St.	6.4

The PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank	Team	PiRate	Conf.
1	Villanova	122.2	BIGE
2	Purdue	121.7	BTEN
3	Duke	120.0	ACC
4	Michigan St.	119.3	BTEN
5	Virginia	119.0	ACC
6	Cincinnati	117.2	AAC
7	Kansas	117.0	B12
8	Gonzaga	116.7	WCC
9	West Virginia	116.2	B12
10	North Carolina	115.9	ACC
11	Xavier	115.4	BIGE
12	Texas Tech	114.5	B12
13	Wichita St.	114.4	AAC
14	Auburn	114.0	SEC
15	Creighton	114.0	BIGE
16	Oklahoma	113.5	B12
17	Ohio St.	113.4	BTEN
18	Tennessee	113.4	SEC
19	TCU	113.1	B12
20	Arizona	112.9	PAC12
21	Clemson	112.8	ACC
22	Florida St.	112.6	ACC
23	Saint Mary’s	112.5	WCC
24	Nevada	112.3	MWC
25	Florida	112.3	SEC

Note: Rhode Island from the Atlantic 10 Conference is #27, but no other A-10 team is in line for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.  Thus, the A-10 stays as a one-bid league if URI wins the automatic bid by winning the A-10 Tournament title.  If a second team should make it into serious Bubble contention, then we will commence with A-10 expanded coverage.

Also, the Mountain West Conference is in danger of being removed from this list.  While Nevada remains in the top 25 and looks like a near lock to make the NCAA Tournament with or without an automatic bid, the Wolfpack’s nearest competition, Boise State and San Diego State, have fallen back enough to be remote at-large candidates.  Should the Broncos and Aztecs fall off that Bubble, we will remove the Mountain West Conference as a Major.

PiRate Ratings by Major Conference 

Cincinnati	117.2	AAC
Wichita St.	114.4	AAC
Houston	110.3	AAC
SMU	109.9	AAC
UCF	104.4	AAC
Temple	104.2	AAC
Tulsa	101.8	AAC
Tulane	100.7	AAC
Connecticut	100.6	AAC
Memphis	99.9	AAC
East Carolina	90.8	AAC
South Florida	89.7	AAC
Duke	120.0	ACC
Virginia	119.0	ACC
North Carolina	115.9	ACC
Clemson	112.8	ACC
Florida St.	112.6	ACC
Miami FL	111.8	ACC
Notre Dame	111.6	ACC
Louisville	111.3	ACC
Virginia Tech	110.3	ACC
Syracuse	108.8	ACC
North Carolina St.	106.7	ACC
Boston College	105.6	ACC
Wake Forest	105.0	ACC
Georgia Tech	102.9	ACC
Pittsburgh	96.2	ACC
Kansas	117.0	B12
West Virginia	116.2	B12
Texas Tech	114.5	B12
Oklahoma	113.5	B12
TCU	113.1	B12
Kansas St.	110.7	B12
Baylor	110.4	B12
Texas	110.2	B12
Oklahoma St.	107.6	B12
Iowa St.	104.7	B12
Villanova	122.2	BIGE
Xavier	115.4	BIGE
Creighton	114.0	BIGE
Butler	110.9	BIGE
Seton Hall	110.9	BIGE
Marquette	109.7	BIGE
Providence	108.2	BIGE
St. John’s	105.9	BIGE
Georgetown	103.0	BIGE
DePaul	102.9	BIGE
Purdue	121.7	BTEN
Michigan St.	119.3	BTEN
Ohio St.	113.4	BTEN
Michigan	112.3	BTEN
Maryland	110.4	BTEN
Penn St.	108.6	BTEN
Northwestern	107.0	BTEN
Nebraska	106.5	BTEN
Minnesota	106.5	BTEN
Wisconsin	105.7	BTEN
Iowa	105.3	BTEN
Indiana	105.1	BTEN
Illinois	104.3	BTEN
Rutgers	102.6	BTEN
Nevada	112.3	MWC
Boise St.	109.0	MWC
San Diego St.	108.3	MWC
UNLV	105.5	MWC
Fresno St.	105.3	MWC
Wyoming	102.4	MWC
New Mexico	102.4	MWC
Utah St.	100.7	MWC
Colorado St.	96.5	MWC
Air Force	92.8	MWC
San Jose St.	89.7	MWC
Arizona	112.9	PAC12
Arizona St.	111.3	PAC12
USC	109.6	PAC12
UCLA	107.8	PAC12
Oregon	107.6	PAC12
Utah	106.2	PAC12
Stanford	103.8	PAC12
Washington	103.1	PAC12
Colorado	102.7	PAC12
Oregon St.	102.7	PAC12
Washington St.	99.7	PAC12
California	95.2	PAC12
Auburn	114.0	SEC
Tennessee	113.4	SEC
Florida	112.3	SEC
Kentucky	111.4	SEC
Arkansas	111.0	SEC
Texas A&M	111.0	SEC
Missouri	109.9	SEC
Alabama	108.3	SEC
LSU	108.0	SEC
South Carolina	106.8	SEC
Georgia	106.4	SEC
Mississippi	106.3	SEC
Mississippi St.	105.9	SEC
Vanderbilt	104.7	SEC
Gonzaga	116.7	WCC
Saint Mary’s	112.5	WCC
BYU	107.7	WCC
San Diego	101.2	WCC
San Francisco	99.7	WCC
Pacific	98.5	WCC
Loyola Marymount	94.3	WCC
Portland	92.5	WCC
Santa Clara	92.3	WCC
Pepperdine	90.7	WCC

PiRate Ratings Take on the Current 68

Beginning next week, we hope to commence with our 2018 March Madness Bracket Gurus report.  We have received the go ahead from 11 of our 12 gurus saying they will be ready to send us their selections on Monday or Tuesday each week for the rest of the season.  We have not been able to establish contact with Guru #12 this year, so we are in the market for a 12th Guru.  We have feelers sent out to a couple of reputable bracketologists hoping to get back to a dozen.

Until then, here is our personal take on 68 teams.

America East–1: Vermont 7-0/17-5

AAC–4: Cincinnati 7-0/18-2, Wichita St. 6-2/16-4, Houston 5-2/15-4, SMU 4-4/14-7

Atlantic 10–1: Rhode Island 8-0/16-3

ACC–8: Virginia 8-0/19-1, Duke 6-2/18-2, North Carolina 5-3/16-5, Clemson 5-3/16-4, Louisville 5-2/15-5, Miami (Fla.) 4-3/15-4, Florida St. 4-4/15-5, Notre Dame 3-4/13-7

Atlantic Sun–1: Florida Gulf Coast 6-0/15-8

Big 12–7: Kansas 6-2/16-4, Oklahoma 5-3/15-4, West Virginia 5-3/16-4, Texas Tech 5-3/16-4, Kansas St. 5-3/15-5, TCU 3-5/15-5, Texas 4-4/13-7

Big East–7: Villanova 6-1/19-1, Xavier 7-2/19-3, Creighton 6-3/16-5, Seton Hall 4-3/15-5, Butler 4-4/14-7, Providence 5-3/14-7, Marquette 4-4/13-7

Big Sky–1: Montana 8-0/15-5

Big South–1: Radford 7-2/14-8

Big Ten–4: Purdue 9-0/20-2, Michigan St. 6-2/18-3, Ohio St. 9-1/18-5, Michigan 6-4/17-6

Big West–1: Hawaii 4-1/13-5

Colonial–1: Northeastern 7-2/14-7

Conference USA–1: Middle Tennessee 7-1/15-5

Horizon–1: Northern Kentucky 7-1/14-6

Ivy–1: Penn 3-0/12-6

MAAC–1: Canisius 7-1/13-8

MAC–1: Buffalo 7-0/15-5

MEAC–1: Bethune-Cookman 5-0/11-9

Missouri Valley–1: Loyola (Chi.) 7-2/17-4

Mountain West–2: Nevada 7-1/18-4, Boise St. 7-2/17-4

Northeast–1: Wagner 6-2/13-6

Ohio Valley–1: Belmont 8-1/16-6

Pac-12–3: Arizona 7-1/17-4, Arizona St. 3-5/15-5, USC 7-2/16-6

Patriot–1: Bucknell 8-1/14-8

SEC–8: Auburn 6-1/18-2, Tennessee 5-3/14-5, Florida 6-2/14-6, Kentucky 5-3/15-5, Alabama 5-3/13-7, Arkansas 4-4/14-6, Missouri 3-4/13-7, Texas A&M 2-6/13-7

Southern–1: East Tennessee 8-0/17-4

Southland–1: Stephen F. Austin 5-2/16-4

SWAC–1: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7-0/7-14

Summit–1: South Dakota 6-1/18-5

Sun Belt–1: Louisiana-LaFayette 8-0/18-3

West Coast–2: Saint Mary’s 9-0/20-2, Gonzaga 8-1/18-4

WAC–1: New Mexico St. 5-0/17-3

Last 4 In (headed to Dayton in a First 4 Game)

Notre Dame vs. Boise St.

Kansas St. vs. USC

#16 Seeds headed to Dayton in a First 4 Game

Wagner vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Penn vs. Radford

5 Double Digit Mid-Major Seeds No Single Digit Seed Wants to Play 

New Mexico St.

Middle Tennessee or Western Kentucky

Louisiana-Lafayette

East Tennessee St.

Vermont

 

5 Final Four Dark Horses (lower than 4 seed)

Kentucky

Wichita St.

Saint Mary’s

Nevada

Michigan

The Bubble On the Outside Looking In

69 Syracuse

70 Georgia

71 Washington

72 Western Kentucky (or Middle Tennessee if WKU wins automatic bid)

73 Baylor

74 Maryland

75 North Carolina St.

76 Oklahoma St.

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for January 13-14, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads of Major Conference Games

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Tulane	Connecticut	3.8
Temple	Memphis	10.2
South Florida	Cincinnati	-22.9
Tulsa	Wichita St.	-11.6
Duke	Wake Forest	17.3
Florida St.	Syracuse	7.6
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	-2.8
Clemson	Miami (Fla.)	4.4
Louisville	Virginia Tech	3.9
Notre Dame	North Carolina	0.5
Kansas	Kansas St.	12.0
Oklahoma	TCU	5.6
Texas Tech	West Virginia	4.8
Iowa St.	Baylor	-4.1
Oklahoma St.	Texas	0.0
Seton Hall	Georgetown	11.6
Xavier	Creighton	2.2
St. John’s	Villanova	-12.5
Michigan St.	Michigan	10.2
Minnesota	Purdue	-8.3
Wyoming	Colorado St.	8.2
San Jose St.	Air Force	0.8
Fresno St.	New Mexico	5.9
Nevada	Utah St.	14.6
Boise St.	San Diego St.	3.3
Arizona	Oregon	8.9
Washington St.	California	5.6
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	15.3
Washington	Stanford	4.5
UCLA	Colorado	10.5
Ole Miss	Florida	-5.0
Georgia	South Carolina	4.9
Mississippi St.	Auburn	-3.3
Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-4.1
Tennessee	Texas A&M	4.7
Arkansas	Missouri	4.9
LSU	Alabama	3.8
Pepperdine	Saint Mary’s	-17.3
San Francisco	Gonzaga	-13.5
Santa Clara	BYU	-10.4
San Diego	Loyola Marymount	11.2
Portland	Pacific	-2.5

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
East Carolina	Houston	-17.2
Virginia	North Carolina St.	14.7
Indiana	Northwestern	0.6
Rutgers	Ohio St.	-6.0
USC	Utah	5.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank	Team	PiRate	Conf.
1	Villanova	121.1	BIGE
2	Purdue	120.0	BTEN
3	Duke	119.7	ACC
4	Michigan St.	119.3	BTEN
5	Kansas	117.6	B12
6	Virginia	117.5	ACC
7	Gonzaga	117.2	WCC
8	Texas Tech	116.9	B12
9	North Carolina	116.2	ACC
10	Cincinnati	116.0	AAC
11	Wichita St.	116.0	AAC
12	West Virginia	115.6	B12
13	Creighton	115.0	BIGE
14	Oklahoma	114.8	B12
15	Xavier	113.7	BIGE
16	Tennessee	113.2	SEC
17	Arizona	113.2	PAC12
18	Arizona St.	113.2	PAC12
19	Clemson	112.9	ACC
20	Notre Dame	112.7	ACC
21	TCU	112.7	B12
22	Florida	112.7	SEC
23	Florida St.	112.5	ACC
24	Auburn	112.4	SEC
25	Michigan	112.1	BTEN

PiRate Ratings By Major Conference

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Cincinnati	116.0	AAC
Wichita St.	116.0	AAC
SMU	110.2	AAC
Houston	110.0	AAC
UCF	105.4	AAC
Temple	105.3	AAC
Tulsa	101.4	AAC
Tulane	101.3	AAC
Connecticut	100.5	AAC
Memphis	98.6	AAC
South Florida	90.1	AAC
East Carolina	89.8	AAC
Duke	119.7	ACC
Virginia	117.5	ACC
North Carolina	116.2	ACC
Clemson	112.9	ACC
Notre Dame	112.7	ACC
Florida St.	112.5	ACC
Miami FL	112.0	ACC
Louisville	110.5	ACC
Virginia Tech	110.1	ACC
Syracuse	108.4	ACC
North Carolina St.	106.8	ACC
Wake Forest	105.4	ACC
Boston College	105.4	ACC
Georgia Tech	102.3	ACC
Pittsburgh	96.5	ACC
Kansas	117.6	B12
Texas Tech	116.9	B12
West Virginia	115.6	B12
Oklahoma	114.8	B12
TCU	112.7	B12
Baylor	110.9	B12
Texas	110.8	B12
Kansas St.	108.6	B12
Oklahoma St.	107.8	B12
Iowa St.	103.8	B12
Villanova	121.1	BIGE
Creighton	115.0	BIGE
Xavier	113.7	BIGE
Seton Hall	112.0	BIGE
Butler	110.3	BIGE
Marquette	110.0	BIGE
Providence	106.8	BIGE
St. John’s	105.6	BIGE
Georgetown	103.9	BIGE
DePaul	103.6	BIGE
Purdue	120.0	BTEN
Michigan St.	119.3	BTEN
Michigan	112.1	BTEN
Ohio St.	112.1	BTEN
Maryland	110.7	BTEN
Penn St.	109.8	BTEN
Minnesota	108.2	BTEN
Northwestern	107.6	BTEN
Wisconsin	105.9	BTEN
Iowa	105.4	BTEN
Illinois	105.4	BTEN
Indiana	104.7	BTEN
Nebraska	104.7	BTEN
Rutgers	103.1	BTEN
Nevada	111.8	MWC
San Diego St.	109.1	MWC
Boise St.	108.9	MWC
UNLV	105.9	MWC
Fresno St.	104.3	MWC
Wyoming	101.9	MWC
New Mexico	101.4	MWC
Utah St.	100.7	MWC
Colorado St.	96.7	MWC
Air Force	92.1	MWC
San Jose St.	89.9	MWC
Arizona	113.2	PAC12
Arizona St.	113.2	PAC12
UCLA	108.7	PAC12
USC	108.7	PAC12
Oregon	107.8	PAC12
Utah	106.6	PAC12
Washington	102.7	PAC12
Colorado	102.2	PAC12
Stanford	101.7	PAC12
Oregon St.	101.4	PAC12
Washington St.	99.0	PAC12
California	96.4	PAC12
Tennessee	113.2	SEC
Florida	112.7	SEC
Auburn	112.4	SEC
Texas A&M	112.0	SEC
Kentucky	112.0	SEC
Arkansas	111.8	SEC
Missouri	110.4	SEC
LSU	108.6	SEC
Alabama	108.3	SEC
Georgia	107.0	SEC
Mississippi St.	105.6	SEC
South Carolina	105.1	SEC
Vanderbilt	104.9	SEC
Mississippi	104.2	SEC
Gonzaga	117.2	WCC
Saint Mary’s	111.3	WCC
BYU	106.5	WCC
San Diego	102.6	WCC
San Francisco	100.7	WCC
Pacific	97.0	WCC
Loyola Marymount	94.4	WCC
Santa Clara	92.6	WCC
Portland	91.5	WCC
Pepperdine	91.0	WCC

10 Mid-Major Teams That Have The Talent And Coaching To Make The Sweet 16
(listed alphabetically)

East Tennessee St.
Conference–Southern
Current Won-Loss Records– 4-0/13-4
Head Coach–Steve Forbes
Family Tree–Bruce Pearl & Gregg Marshall

With the Buccaneers’ win over UNC-Greensboro last night, ETSU remains in a 1st place tie with Furman in the SoCon. ETSU stayed close in their NCAA Tournament game with Florida last year, and this year’s team is a bit better. The Bucs came close to pulling off the upset win at #10 Xavier earlier this season, and they didn’t get embarrassed against Kentucky at Rupp Arena. The Bucs have won 11 of their last 12 with an average scoring margin of 81-64. ETSU plays at Furman next Thursday night.

Middle Tennessee St.
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-4
Head Coach–Kermit Davis, Jr.
Family Tree–Bob Boyd & Tim Floyd

It should come as no surprise to most basketball fans, especially those in the Big Ten, that the Blue Raiders are a force to be reckoned with. MTSU has won back-to-back second round NCAA Tournament games over Michigan State and Minnesota, before falling in the Round of 32 to strong teams. The Blue Raiders have at times this year played like a top 20 team. In December, they swept Florida Gulf Coast in a rare, back-to-back home and home series; then they won at neighborhood SEC rival Vanderbilt; then they blew Ole Miss off the floor in a home game; before losing close to Auburn in Birmingham in a game where they made a furious comeback to have a chance to win. Then, in Hawaii, they lost close games to USC and Miami. Star forward Nick King has five double-doubles so far, while Giddy Potts is the glue that keeps this team together. His defensive pressure can take opponents out of their offensive game plans.

Next week, MTSU plays on the road at the two toughest venues outside of their own Murphy Athletic Center. On Thursday night, the Blue Raiders visit Marshall, and on Saturday, they face off against chief rival Western Kentucky. If MTSU splits those two games, then they should secure another CUSA regular season title.

Missouri St.
Conference–Missouri Valley
Current Won-Loss Records–3-2/13-5
Head Coach–Paul Lusk
Family Tree–Gene Keady & Matt Painter

With Wichita State moving up to the American Athletic Conference, Missouri State becomes one of multiple contenders for the top spot in the Valley. Under Coach Paul Lusk, a former Purdue assistant, MSU has become a defensive force, especially inside, where the Bears have the best frontcourt in the league, led by top big man Alize Johnson. Johnson currently averages 15.2 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. This team can go eight deep with talented depth, and when their supporting cast is knocking down threes, this team can compete against anybody. MSU has a key game coming up at Drake a week from tomorrow. The winner of that game should be looking down at the rest of the league in the standings into February.

New Mexico St.
Conference–Western Athletic
Current Won-Loss Records–2-0/14-3
Head Coach–Chris Jans
Family Tree–Gregg Marshall

The Aggies might be strong enough to make a Cinderella run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and even consider themselves a possible Final Four contender. If you think this is impossible, it actually would not be a first in Las Cruces. NMSU has been in the Final Four, and it was no fluke back in 1970 when then coach Lou Henson guided the Aggies to a number three ranking in the polls.

This NMSU team has already made a name for itself with wins over Illinois in a not-so-neutral site game in Chicago and against Miami of Florida in Hawaii. After besting conference rival Grand Canyon by 11 last night, NMSU could run the table in the WAC this year and enter the NCAA Tournament as high as an 11th seed.

The Aggies are undersized and need to rely on pressure man-to-man defense with the occasional full-court press, but they play taller than they are and usually win the rebounding war, where they have a plus 8.7 margin presently.

Northern Kentucky
Conference–Horizon
Current Won-Loss Records–4-1/11-6
Head Coach–John Brannen
Family Tree–John Kresse & Anthony Grant

Until losing at home to Wright State last night, NKU looked like an almost sure thing to return to the NCAA Tournament this year after making their first appearance last year.

The Norse return the three stars that kept the team in the game against Kentucky in the Second Round last year, and it figures that NKU could win a second and even third round game this year, but they have to get there first. With Wright State looking like they could soon make this list, who knows if they will get another shot?

Old Dominion
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–3-1/12-4
Head Coach–Jeff Jones
Family Tree–Terry Holland

With an ACC championship at Virginia and four Colonial Athletic championships at American, Jeff Jones knows how to win. Old Dominion is one of four talented contenders for the CUSA crown, and most likely just one CUSA will get an invitation. So, it figures that ODU has about a 25% chance of going dancing this year. If they do get there, the Monarchs have the talent to stay around awhile.

ODU wins with its defense, where the Monarchs hold opponents to under 40% shooting from the field and then have a 5.6 rebounding margin and 3.9 turnover margin. At +9.5 in the hustle points, the opponent must shoot lights out or force ODU to shoot around 35% or worse to beat the Monarchs. Keep an eye on 6-10 post man Trey Porter, who appears to be on the cusp of breaking out into a star. In the last 5 games, he has averaged 17.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while shooting 62% from the field.

If you are a fan of seeing a great offense go up against a great defense, you may want to tune into tomorrow’s ODU-Marshall game to see how the Monarchs’ defend the D’Antoni seven-second offense.

Rhode Island
Conference–Atlantic 10
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-3
Head Coach–Dan Hurley
Family Tree–Bob Wenzel (student of former Duke coach Bill Foster)

Before Rams’ fans get on our case that URI should be considered a Major and not Mid-Major team, and that they should move up into an at-large proability, we actually agree with you. And, if the Rams continue to win and make it obvious that they are a definite at-large team, we will move the A-10 up into the Major Conference grouping and rank the teams in this league like we are doing for the Mountain West and West Coast Conferences.

Dan Hurley is not getting all the publicity that his little brother has been getting at Arizona State, but the older of the two brothers is doing a smashup job at Rhode Island.
The Rams’ three losses have come to Nevada in Reno, Virginia in Brooklyn, and Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They have wins against Seton Hall, Providence, and Florida Gulf Coast, and they get a chance to pick up another key win tomorrow when they host St. Bonaventure.

URI came close to making the Sweet 16 last year, beating Creighton before losing a heartbreaker to Oregon in the NCAA Tournament.

St. Bonaventure
Conference–Atlantic 10
Current Won-Loss Records–2-2/12-4
Head Coach–Mark Schmidt
Family Tree–Bruce Parkhill and Skip Prosser

The Bonnies have been close to making the Big Dance the last two years, coming up a game or two short. This may be their best team since 1978. With wins over over Maryland and Syracuse, St. Bonaventure has already shown that big time teams do not intimidate this group. A couple of senior leaders, Matt Mobley and Jaylen Adams, make a great one-two punch for the Bonnies, as the two combine to average 35.5 points per game. Earlier this season against UMass, the two combined for 60 points and 9 of 16 from behind the arc. If a dance opponent or two catches the pair this hot, SBU can get to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Of course, they still must earn their way into the dance, and losing back-to-back road games against Dayton and St. Joe’s damaged their at-large chances.

Their game with Rhode Island tomorrow morning is a real test to see if they are tournament worthy.

Vermont
Conference–America East
Current Won-Loss Records–2-0/12-5
Head Coach–John Becker
Family Tree–Mike Lonergan (who was a Gary Williams disciple)

Vermont has become the Villanova of the America East Conference. The Catamounts were overwhelming favorites to win the league this year after returning most of the team that won the league last year and led Purdue for a bit in their NCAA Tournament loss to the Boilermakers.

VU’s most impressive game this year was its opener at Kentucky, where the Catamounts made a furious comeback before falling by four points. Expect the Catamounts to extend their current five-game winning streak well into double digits, and it would not surprise us if VU wins out from here to enter the NCAA Tournament at 29-5.

Forward Anthony Lamb has averaged 22.5 points per game since New Year’s Day, and if guard Ernie Duncan can become more consistent, the Catamounts can make it to the Sweet 16.

Western Kentucky
Conference–Conference USA
Current Won-Loss Records–4-0/12-5
Head Coach–Rick Stansbury
Family Tree–Lake Kelly and Richard Williams

It should be no surprise to long-time basketball fans that Western Kentucky has a team capable of becoming a Sweet 16 entrant in the NCAA Tournament. The Hilltoppers have been there before multiple times, even earning a Final Four berth in 1971, where WKU fell in overtime to Villanova.

This Hilltopper team is not going to remind the old-timers of the Clem Haskins or Jim McDaniel days. However, if you saw this team play in the Battle for Atlantis, they narrowly lost to top-ranked Villanova and then bested Purdue and SMU.
More importantly, WKU went on the road this past week and topped two of the three rivals they must defeat to win the CUSA Championship. The Hilltoppers beat Marshall 112-87 and Old Dominion 75-68, which leaves them currently tied for first with their arch-rival, Middle Tennessee.

In other years, CUSA might qualify two teams for the NCAA Tournament coming from the four teams that on any given night, could knock off a Big Ten or SEC opponent. However, unless one team runs the table in the regular season and then finished runner-up in the CUSA Tournament, it isn’t likely that the league will get an at-large bid.
WKU wins games because they have an incredible number of accurate shooters who know how to get open. All 5 starters average double figure scoring, and Coach Stansbury has a trio of competent rebounders and a duo of great playmakers.

Saturday, January 20, and Thursday, March 1 are the dates when WKU and Middle face off. The first game will be in Bowling Green, so WKU should be a slight favorite.

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads For December 30-31, 2017

Saturday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Connecticut	Wichita St.	-10.0
Houston	Temple	8.6
North Carolina	Wake Forest	14.0
Duke	Florida St.	10.6
Virginia	Boston College	16.2
Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	16.5
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	-11.8
Clemson	N. C. State	8.5
TCU	Oklahoma	1.4
Xavier	DePaul	16.1
Butler	Villanova	-7.9
Marquette	Georgetown	8.3
Nevada	New Mexico	15.7
San Diego St.	Utah St.	10.1
UNLV	Boise St.	4.0
Arizona	Arizona St.	2.5
Stanford	California	7.1
Arkansas	Tennessee	5.2
Florida	Vanderbilt	9.1
Alabama	Texas A&M	-4.1
BYU	Saint Mary’s	0.2
Gonzaga	Santa Clara	25.2

Sunday’s Games
Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Tulane	Tulsa	2.0
Cincinnati	Memphis	20.1
East Carolina	Central Florida	-10.9
SMU	South Florida	22.3
Syracuse	Virginia Tech	0.1
Creighton	Providence	10.2
Seton Hall	St. John’s	8.1
Oregon St.	Utah	-4.0
UCLA	Washington	9.0
USC	Washington St.	14.1
Oregon	Colorado	11.4
Kentucky	Georgia	9.8
Ole Miss	South Carolina	2.0

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Basketball Issue 1 2017-18

Normally, we do not commence with our basketball coverage until after New Year’s Day, but this year all 351 Division 1 teams have reached the 10-game plateau before the turn of the year.  It takes our PiRate Ratings 10 games into everybody’s schedule before the average statistics calm down enough to make our ratings worth a grain of salt.

We have made a couple of changes this season.  First, our Red, White, and Blue ratings have been sent to the scrap pile.  They were just minor variations in the algorithm of the stats we use to determine power ratings.  Instead, beginning this season, we have put all three algorithms together into one conglomerate rating, simply “The PiRate Rating.”

We have been in contact with most of our Bracketology Gurus from last year, and we hope to have this function up and running soon.  We are still efforting to contact two of our past contributors, and we hope they will soon return to the ship.  As some of our loyal followers remember last season, our Gurus were 100% accurate, 68 for 68, in picking the NCAA Tournament teams on the morning of Selection Sunday.  As far as we can tell, no national bracketologist matched this feat.

The lineup this year is for a bracketology composite to be released on Monday or Tuesday (depends on when all our Gurus get their data to us), and for a preview of the weekend games of the top conferences to be issued on Friday afternoons.  Unfortunately, since we are not automated, we cannot release selections for all 351 teams nor for weekday games.  We will limit our selections to Saturday and Sunday conference games and games between NCAA contenders of the power leagues.  We will also release our ratings of the power conferences.  For those that want more information on mid-major and low-major conferences, we will periodically report on these conference races, beginning with our first one today.

The PiRate Ratings Top 25 for December 27, 2017

A rating of 100 is the national average.  115 or above is a final four caliber team.

Rank	Team	PiRate	Conf.
1	Villanova	121.4	BE
2	Duke	120.0	ACC
3	Michigan St.	119.8	B10
4	Purdue	119.7	B10
5	Kansas	119.4	B12
6	Virginia	117.4	ACC
7	North Carolina	116.8	ACC
8	Xavier	115.9	BE
9	Texas A&M	115.9	SEC
10	West Virginia	115.8	B12
11	Wichita St.	115.4	AAC
12	Gonzaga	115.2	WCC
13	Arizona St.	115.0	P12
14	Texas Tech	115.0	B12
15	Cincinnati	114.9	AAC
16	Oklahoma	114.7	B12
17	Arkansas	114.6	SEC
18	Arizona	114.5	P12
19	Creighton	114.1	BE
20	Florida St.	113.4	ACC
21	Tennessee	113.4	SEC
22	Miami FL	113.2	ACC
23	Seton Hall	113.1	BE
24	TCU	113.1	B12
25	Clemson	112.8	ACC

Rankings By Top Conferences

Team	PiRate	Conf.
Wichita St.	115.4	AAC
Cincinnati	114.9	AAC
SMU	112.0	AAC
Houston	110.6	AAC
Temple	106.7	AAC
UCF	104.5	AAC
Tulsa	102.2	AAC
Connecticut	101.3	AAC
Tulane	100.6	AAC
Memphis	99.0	AAC
South Florida	92.9	AAC
East Carolina	91.7	AAC
Duke	120.0	ACC
Virginia	117.4	ACC
North Carolina	116.8	ACC
Florida St.	113.4	ACC
Miami FL	113.2	ACC
Clemson	112.8	ACC
Virginia Tech	112.6	ACC
Notre Dame	112.5	ACC
Louisville	111.3	ACC
Syracuse	108.2	ACC
North Carolina St.	107.4	ACC
Wake Forest	105.8	ACC
Boston College	105.2	ACC
Georgia Tech	100.6	ACC
Pittsburgh	98.4	ACC
Michigan St.	119.8	B10
Purdue	119.7	B10
Michigan	111.9	B10
Maryland	111.8	B10
Minnesota	110.5	B10
Ohio St.	110.1	B10
Penn St.	109.5	B10
Northwestern	108.4	B10
Wisconsin	106.7	B10
Iowa	106.4	B10
Illinois	106.3	B10
Indiana	104.6	B10
Rutgers	104.4	B10
Nebraska	104.2	B10
Kansas	119.4	B12
West Virginia	115.8	B12
Texas Tech	115.0	B12
Oklahoma	114.7	B12
TCU	113.1	B12
Baylor	112.1	B12
Texas	111.6	B12
Kansas St.	109.3	B12
Oklahoma St.	109.0	B12
Iowa St.	105.1	B12
Villanova	121.4	BE
Xavier	115.9	BE
Creighton	114.1	BE
Seton Hall	113.1	BE
Butler	110.3	BE
St. John’s	108.8	BE
Marquette	108.4	BE
Providence	106.3	BE
Georgetown	103.4	BE
DePaul	103.0	BE
Nevada	112.3	MWC
San Diego St.	109.0	MWC
UNLV	108.9	MWC
Boise St.	107.6	MWC
Fresno St.	106.3	MWC
Utah St.	101.3	MWC
Wyoming	101.0	MWC
New Mexico	99.4	MWC
Colorado St.	96.5	MWC
Air Force	92.7	MWC
San Jose St.	92.4	MWC
Arizona St.	115.0	P12
Arizona	114.5	P12
USC	110.4	P12
Oregon	109.8	P12
UCLA	107.9	P12
Utah	107.4	P12
Colorado	102.3	P12
Stanford	101.7	P12
Washington	101.7	P12
Oregon St.	100.4	P12
Washington St.	100.4	P12
California	97.6	P12
Texas A&M	115.9	SEC
Arkansas	114.6	SEC
Tennessee	113.4	SEC
Kentucky	111.8	SEC
Florida	111.4	SEC
Auburn	111.0	SEC
Missouri	110.0	SEC
Alabama	108.3	SEC
South Carolina	106.9	SEC
Vanderbilt	106.2	SEC
Georgia	106.1	SEC
LSU	106.0	SEC
Mississippi St.	105.8	SEC
Mississippi	105.3	SEC
Gonzaga	115.2	WCC
Saint Mary’s	110.9	WCC
BYU	107.2	WCC
San Diego	102.5	WCC
San Francisco	100.4	WCC
Pacific	97.0	WCC
Loyola Marymount	96.7	WCC
Santa Clara	93.8	WCC
Portland	93.1	WCC
Pepperdine	92.3	WCC

A Look at the 22, One Bid Leagues

America East
Albany has the best record at 11-3, and one of their three losses was by just two points against Louisville, while Vermont at 8-5 has played a slightly tougher schedule and has narrow misses at Kentucky, Marquette, and St. Bonaventure. Vermont ran the table in the AmEast last year, and the Catamounts are the team to beat.

Atlantic Sun
Florida Gulf Coast (7-7) was supposed to be the class of the A-Sun this year with a team similar to their great past squads under former coach Andy Enfield. However, they look like the third best team as conference play begins. Lipscomb (9-4) swept rival and perennial NCAA Tournament team Belmont in a home and home series, and they stayed close with a ranked Tennessee team. NJIT (7-6) appears to be the other team capable of winning the conference race. Of course, this league could easily see a middle of the pack team win the conference tournament. The tournament is played on campus, so the top seed will have home court advantage throughout. Lipscomb is currently 5-0 at home, so this is something to keep an eye on for the next several weeks.

Big Sky
Portland State (10-3) is the cream of the class as the year ends, but this league has some talented teams, and the Vikings will not run the table and easily earn the lone NCAA bid. Challenges will come from Idaho (8-4), Northern Colorado (9-5), Weber State (7-5), and Montana (7-5). Portland State averages over 90 points per game and led Duke at the half earlier this year. They have an outstanding pair of tall guard in Deontae North and Bryce Canda, and this is a team that could be a #13 seed that can beat a #4 seed in the Round of 64.

Big South
The conference race starts with three teams appearing to be above the rest of the league, but this looks like a bit of a down year in the Big South. Liberty (9-4) has a win at Wake Forest, but they also lost at home to Mercer. The Flames have the best defense in the league, led by Bradley transfer Scottie James at power forward. Winthrop (6-5) has the superior offense in the league, thrice exceeding 100 points so far. However, all three of those centennial-topping games came against non-Division I teams. Against a decent team like Auburn, the Eagles gave up 119 points and lost by 34. UNC-Asheville (7-6) has underachieved in November and December, but with three quality starters in Macio Teague, Ahmad Thomas, and Kevin Vannatta, the Bulldogs can still put it together and win the league again.

Big West
UCSB (10-3) has the highest power rating so far, but the three co-favorites to win the conference are just behind and not by much. UC-Davis (8-5), Cal State Fullerton (7-4), and UC-Irvine (5-10) will be there in March. UC-Irvine’s poor record is a bit misleading, as the Anteaters have played a gruesome schedule that includes losses to South Dakota State, Kansas State, Arizona State, UCLA, Nevada, and Saint Mary’s, all who could be in the NCAA Tournament.

Colonial
Towson (10-3) has the best overall record, but their 10 wins have come against nobody special. Charleston (9-3) is in a similar boat with no significant wins. Northeastern (7-5), Hofstra (7-5), and William & Mary (7-4) play much better on their home floors than when away from home, and this group of five teams should contend for top honors. William & Mary may be the team with the potential to improve the most in the next two months and emerge as the favorite. With just a little defensive improvement, the Tribe could be scary in an opening round game.

Conference USA
We will have to monitor this league a bit closer, because there is a small possibility that this league could move up into the multiple bid leagues. Middle Tennessee (8-4) is trying to emerge as the Gonzaga of the South. The Blue Raiders have won back-to-back opening round NCAA Tournament games over Big Ten teams the last two seasons, and they beat Vanderbilt and Ole Miss so far. Their four losses have been to teams that should be in the NCAA Tournament (Belmont, Auburn, USC, and Miami), and they nearly beat USC and Miami in Honolulu. Five other teams could contend with the heavily favored Blue Raiders, and that is where CUSA could eventually get a second team in the Dance. Old Dominion (9-3) has an excellent controlled offense and quality defense, the type that can win conference tournaments in March. Western Kentucky (8-5) has the talent to pull off three conference tournament wins. The Hilltoppers beat Purdue and SMU and lost a narrow game to Villanova, so they will be tough in conference play. Louisiana Tech (9-4), UAB (9-4), and Marshall (9-4) all have stellar offensive games, and in this league, any of this trio could get hot in March and win the conference tournament. If MTSU wins the regular season title with only one or two losses and then loses in the CUSA Tournament Championship Game, the league could get that second bid. For now, we leave this as a one-bid league.

Horizon
Northern Kentucky (7-5) was supposed to win this conference with ease this year after earning its first ever NCAA Tournament bid last year. Oakland (8-5) and Wright State (8-5) look like serious challengers this year. Oakland can score 100 points or give up 100 points on a random night, while Wright State can hold an opponent under 50 points or struggle to score 50 points on a random night. Neither team is complete enough to win a game in the Round of 64.

Ivy
Now that there is a four-team post-season tournament in this league, determining the upper division is more important than ever. This year, it looks rather easy to determine which four teams will make the tournament, as there is quite a division between number four and number five. Penn (8-4), Princeton (7-7), Yale (6-8), and Harvard (5-7) should be the top four in some order or another. Princeton has the best win, besting USC in Los Angeles.

Metro Atlantic
This looks like an off year for Monmouth (4-8). The Hawks could not pull off any signature wins in the pre-conference schedule, and it leaves Iona (6-6) as the only team capable of winning an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament. If any other MAAC team wins the automatic bid, chances are high they will play an early game in Dayton.

Mid-American
This is possibly the most balanced league this year, but then this isn’t anything new. The MAC has several good but not great teams. As many as eight teams have the talent to win the conference tournament, but chances are rather strong that whoever that team is, they will make a quick departure in the Big Dance, losing by a modest amount to their favored opponent. Central Michigan (10-2) has no special wins with a seven point loss at Michigan being their top resume opponent. Eastern Michigan (8-3) can score points quickly in their up-tempo offense, but the Eagles lack the defense to become scary. Ball State (8-4) has a seven-game winning streak, which includes the best win in the league, a win at Notre Dame, and the Cardinals need to be watched a little closer to see if this may develop into something impressive. Other teams to watch include Buffalo (7-5), Ohio (6-5), Toledo (7-5), Western Michigan (7-5), and Kent State (6-6). You can pick one of these eight teams out of a hat and have as good a chance at predicting the NCAA recipient with the same accuracy as the top prognosticators.

Mideastern Athletic
This league has been known to produce some surprise upset winners in the past, including a 15-seed knocking off a 2-seed. Even though no MEAC teams have impressive pre-conference records, the top members are competitive and tend to improve in February and March as they gain confidence from a lot of league wins. Keep an eye on UNC-Central (5-8). While the Eagles have no signature wins, they have lost some close games to good teams. If UNCC doesn’t win the conference, then it will most likely go to either North Carolina A&T (7-7) or Morgan State (4-7).

Missouri Valley
Don’t be confused by the Valley becoming a one-bid league. You may not have realized that Wichita State no longer is a member. The Shockers moved to the American Athletic Conference, leaving the MVC without a major power. Thus, the winner at Arch Madness in St. Louis will get the one bid available to this league. As of now, Missouri State (11-3) and Loyola (Chi.) (10-3) look like the class of the league. The two teams squared off at MSU to begin conference play, and the Bears pulled off a narrow home victory. Other teams to keep an eye on include Bradley (10-3), new member Valparaiso (9-4), and Northern Iowa (8-4).

Northeast
This looks like a First Four Game league with the winner going to Dayton. As of this writing, seven of the league’s ten members are bunched rather closely, although not as much so as the MAC. St. Francis (Pa.) (6-5) has the most impressive resume to date, but the Red Flash have very little to show. They played toe-to-toe on the road against Saint Mary’s for 14 minutes, before they fell far behind early in the second half. They stayed within a few points at Louisville for 17 minutes and even went on a 24-10 run in the second half, but they still lost by double digits. But, they also trailed Duke by 30 points in the first 10 minutes of the game. So, this is still a team that nobody will fear, even in the opening round in Dayton. Wagner (7-4) and Robert Morris (6-7) look like the top two contenders, but the talent in this league is not strong enough to say that these three are surely the best three in the league. It will take 5 or 6 conference games before the true contenders are known.

Ohio Valley
The OVC looks to be an improved league in 2018, but they still have a long way to go before it threatens to be a two-bid league. Perennial favorite Belmont (8-5) has been hot and cold so far, beating Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee, and Western Kentucky, and narrowly losing to Providence and unbeaten TCU, but they also were swept by neighborhood rival Lipscomb in their annual home and home series. Former dominant league member Murray State (8-3) is on the rise once again, and the Racers have a balanced offense, capable of scoring inside and from behind the arc. Jacksonville State (9-4) is an up and comer, and the led deep into the second half at Mississippi State and missed on two good looks in the final 5 seconds in a one point loss at Oregon State.

Patriot
Navy (9-4) and Army (7-4) have the two best records in the league in the preseason, but Bucknell (6-7) appears to be the class of the league like usual. The Bison began 0-4 with a tough three-game stretch that saw them play at Arkansas, North Carolina, and Maryland in the same week, losing close games in the latter two. Bucknell actually led the Terps by 15 at the half. This will be a team that could give a favorite fits in a Round of 64 NCAA Tournament game.

Southern
This league is better than most national media give it credit. In fact, there are four teams this year that have the talent to win a game in the NCAA Tournament, and maybe one team has Sweet 16 potential. That team is East Tennessee State (8-4). The Buccaneers lost by just two at Xavier and led at Kentucky by 10 points in the first half, so they have the potential to pull off an upset in the Dance. Furman (9-4), UNC-Greensboro (9-4), and Mercer (6-6) look to be the other top contenders.

Southland
Stephen F. Austin (11-2) has become the Kansas of this league, and any talk of picking a league champion starts here. The Lumberjacks’ two losses came by slim margins on the road against SEC teams, while they also won at LSU. SFA’s top rivals this year include Abilene Christian (8-5), Lamar (8-5), and Central Arkansas (6-7).

Southwestern Athletic
This is the league that always puts its conference champion in Dayton for an opening round game. It is continually the last-place team in power ratings every year, and this year is no different. How weak is the SWAC? Consider that five teams (Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Mississippi Valley St., Texas Southern, and Arkanas-Pine Bluff are a combined 0-65! Yes, the best record among this quintet is ASU’s 0-12 record. Yet, it would not be surprising if one of these teams eventually wins the conference tournament and gets an automatic bid with 20 losses. Texas Southern (0-13) actually possesses the best PiRate Rating as of today. The best records in the pre-season belong to Grambling (4-8) and Alcorn State (4-9). While Alcorn’s four wins came against non-Division I teams, at least Grambling owns a win over Georgia Tech.

Summitt
Like CUSA, this league is close to moving into potential two-bid status. That’s because South Dakota (12-4) is on the cusp of contending for an at-large bid. The Coyotes have come the closest to knocking off unbeaten TCU, losing by just 5 (it was a 1-point game in the final minute). Two of their other three losses came against Duke and UCLA on the road, and they were very competitive in both contests. Rival South Dakota State (11-5) won at Ole Miss and defeated Iowa on a neutral floor, and they dropped close games to Colorado and Wichita State. Fort Wayne (9-6) is one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation, but if they ever get their act together for three consecutive games, the Mastodons could earn the automatic bid. For the second year in a row, FW clobbered Indiana, winning by 20 at Assembly Hall. They led at Kentucky until just before halftime. But, you never know what Mastodon team will show up.

Sun Belt
Most people think of this as a football conference, but the SBC is a tough mid-major basketball league as well. While there is no chance that more than one team will make it to the NCAA Tournament this year, there are three quality teams that have the talent to make it to the Round of 32. Louisiana-Lafayette (10-3) is one of the most exciting teams to watch. The Ragin’ Cajuns can press the action on both ends of the floor, and they can pound it inside with a couple of talented forwards in Bryce Washington and JaKeenan Grant. Georgia Southern (9-4), Texas-Arlington (9-4), and Georgia State (9-4) look to be the top contenders. All four of these conference foes are talented enough to win in the Round of 64. Keep an eye on UTA’s multi-talented big man Kevin Hervey. He can score inside and outside like a mini-LeBron.

Western Athletic
There are two WAC teams that nobody will want to face in a Round of 64 game, and chances are high that one of the dynamic duo will make the Dance. New Mexico State (11-3) sneaked into the Championship game of the Hawaii Diamondhead Classic after beating previously undefeated Miami. It took a deep three by USC’s Bennie Boatwright to keep the Aggies from winning the tournament. NMSU also owns an impressive double-digit win over Illinois. This is Grand Canyon’s (9-4) first year as an eligible NCAA Tournament team and former NBA great Dan Majerle has a team made up of tough competitors. GCU goes 10-deep without much drop in talent, and this team plays together with no real star. If not for some weak shooting nights, the Antelopes would be the overwhelming favorite, but for now, they remain a co-favorite.

By our count, that leaves 46 bids to be doled out to the remaining 10 conferences. We think as of today that the West Coast, Mountain West and Atlantic 10 conferences will receive just two bids. That will then leave 40 bids for the top seven leagues, or an average of 5.7 teams per power conference.

Predictions for Saturday-Sunday power conference games coming Friday afternoon

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketnomics 505 Sweet 16 Criteria Reveal

If you get to start anew with your brackets in whatever pool you are playing in as a participant, we have updated our PiRate Ratings Criteria for the Sweet 16.
If you played along with us, you should have 10 teams left in your Sweet 16, having 26 of the 32 first round winners. If you are in a league where you get one point for each winner that goes from 64 to 32, and two points for every correct Sweet 16 team, then you should be sitting pretty with 46 points. Hopefully, we will help you score some 3-point winners the next two nights, whether you must stick with your original picks, or you get to start over with the 16 remaining teams.

To understand our methods if you don’t already know, refer to this primer: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2017/03/13/bracketnomics-505-the-advanced-level-course-in-bracket-selection/

Here is a breakdown of each game for the next two nights, followed by an update at how the Elite 8 and Final Four look using our criteria.

Oregon vs. Michigan
Power Conference: Both teams

Strength of Schedule: Very slight edge to Michigan, but not enough to matter much

R+T Rating: Large edge to Oregon, as the Ducks’ R+T is 14.7 to the Wolverines’ 3.2. This means that on average, Oregon will have an opportunity through superior rebounding, ball-steals, and overall turnover differential to outscore Michigan by 11.5 points. There is a caveat, as the Ducks are missing a key component in Chris Boucher.
Ability to Win Away from Home: Oregon 14-5/Michigan 11-8. The Ducks have a decent advantage here, but not enough to move this game to the win column.

Winning Streak(s): The Ducks won 17 games in a row at one point this season and eight in a row another time, while Michigan had two, five-game winning streaks. Once again, Oregon has the advantage here, but we cannot annoint the Ducks winners just yet. Not having Boucher removes a lot of these advantages three rounds into the Big Dance.

Since the strengths of schedule are similar, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Michigan = 8.9, Oregon = 13.8, Ducks look better here
FG% Differential: Michigan = 1.9, Oregon = 7.8, Ducks look much better here, as UM fails to qualify
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 68

This is a tough game to figure out, because Boucher’s absence makes Oregon less than what the stats say. Still, the Ducks come out as the superior team based on how we use the criteria. In our original picks, we had Louisville knocking Oregon out of the tournament in this round, but the Cardinals were sent packing last weekend.

PiRate Criteria Pick: OREGON

 

Gonzaga vs. West Virginia
Power Conference: West Virginia is, Gonzaga is not. A slight edge to the Mountaineers

Strength of Schedule: WVU 55.55. Gonzaga 54.02, a slight edge to the Mountaineers

R+T Rating: WVU 19.1, Gonzaga 21.2, a push when SOS is applied

Ability to Win Away from Home: WVU 11-6, Gonzaga 19-0, even with SOS factored into the equation, Gonzaga has the advantage here.

Winning Streak(s): WVU 8 & 4, Gonzaga 29 & 5, Gonzaga enjoys a small advantage

We must handicap these stats with Gonzaga playing in a weaker conference and a slightly weaker schedule
Scoring Margin: WVU 15.3, Gonzaga 22.8, a push
FG% Differential: WVU 3.4, Gonzaga 14.5
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 71

This is where we see another #1 seed going down. Gonzaga’s main Achilles Heel is their conference, where the WCC has two other quality teams. Of course, teams like Butler, George Mason, VCU, and Wichita State have advanced to the Final Four, but the percentages say that these are exceptions and not the norm. When you are trying to win a contest by going with the percentages, you go with the norm unless you have a major reason not to do so. When looking at the obvious way this game will deviate from the norm, it comes from the vaunted WVU full-court press, something that Gonzaga has not faced from a quality team this year. It is our belief that GU will commit very few turnovers against the press and even capitalize with a couple of easy baskets, making it look like to the casual fan that the press is not working. However, we believe it will take the Bulldogs out of their offense just enough to cause them to rush and make poor shot selections, and it will also begin to wear their bigger, bulkier players down in the second half. A fatigued team is only a shell of itself, and once GU is fatigued, WVU will pull away and win this game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WEST VIRGINIA

Kansas vs. Purdue
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: KU 58.11, PU 55.83, a decided advantage for the Jayhawks

R+T Rating: KU 12.3, PU 15.5, a credible advantage for the Boilermakers

Ability to Win Away from Home: KU 16-3, PU 12-5, a tiny advantage for KU

Winning Streak(s): KU 18 & 8, PU 7 & 6, KU has the advantage, but this isn’t overwhelming since PU has two 6+ streaks, and that is all we are looking for in this criterion

Since the strengths of schedule favor KU enough to matter, we must handicap the following stats.
Scoring Margin: KU 11.4, PU 12.6, with the handicap, KU has a minor advantage here
FG% Differential: KU 7.3, PU 6.4, a slight edge to the Jayhawks
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 72 which will favor KU in the 2nd half

In previous years where Purdue was very good, we would call for Kansas to easily win this game because in the past, Purdue did not own good R+T numbers. In fact, they were downright awful. However, this year is very different up in West Lafayatte, where Purdue has an R+T number strong enough to reach the Final Four. Unfortunately, Kansas has the criteria strong enough to win the National Championship, and thus we must go with the team that is only a tad better in this game. A Boilermaker win would not be a surprise at all, but we must go with the percentages.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KANSAS (but this should be an outstanding game)

Arizona vs. Xavier
Power Conference: Both (in recent years, we would discount the Pac-12 some, but not this year. Three league teams made the Sweet 16.

Strength of Schedule: Arizona 58.17, Xavier 58.70, a wash

R+T Rating: Arizona 18.0, Xavier 15.2, the Wildcats with an ever so slight advantage that is not enough to mean much

Ability to Win Away from Home: Arizona 17-3, Xavier 11-9, this is a big advantage for ‘Zona

Winning Streak(s): Arizona 15 & 6, Xavier 7 & 6, Another tiny advantage to the Wildcats

Since the strengths of schedule are almost identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: Arizona 11.0, Xavier 4.1, the Wildcats have a major advantage here, as XU’s scoring margin is well beneath the threshold of a Final Four contender.
FG% Differential: Arizona 6.0, Xavier 0.9, another big edge for Arizona
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67

This one appears to be headed to a double-digit win for the higher-seeded team. Add on to the criteria the fact that Xavier has not been the same since Edmund Sumner was lost for the year at the end of January, and this game looks like a potential breeze for Arizona.
PiRate Criteria Pick: ARIZONA (by double digits)

 

North Carolina vs. Butler
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UNC 59.00, BU 59.04, a total push

R+T Rating: UNC 31.1, BU 9.5, do we really need to go on after this criterion shows the Tar Heels with a chance on average to score 20 more points on rebounds, steals, and turnovers?

Ability to Win Away from Home: UNC 13-7, BU 12-5, pretty much even here

Winning Streak(s): UNC 13 & 7, BU 12 & 5, another push

Since the strengths of schedule are identical, the following stats can be used at face value.
Scoring Margin: UNC 14.8, BU 7.8, Give the Heels a little more advantage here
FG% Differential: UNC 5.5, BU 3.7, more props for the Heels
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 70 (Butler will want to slow the pace, but they will have to play catchup)

Pirate Criteria Pick: NORTH CAROLINA

Baylor vs. South Carolina
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: BU 59.40, USC 56.23, the Bears have a little advantage here

R+T Rating: BU 19.3, USC 10.4, Baylor with decent advantage in this one

Ability to Win Away from Home: BU 12-5, USC 11-7, another tilt to the Bears

Winning Streak(s): BU 15 & 5, USC 8 & 5, BU with yet another advantage

Since the strengths of schedule favors Baylor, the following stats must be handicapped a little
Scoring Margin: BU 10.1, USC 7.9, the criteria keeps tilting green
FG% Differential: BU 7.2, USC 1.9, this continues the trend
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 67, Baylor will conrol the pace.

PiRate Criteria Pick: BAYLOR

 

Kentucky vs. UCLA
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: UK 58.63, UCLA 54.00, a nice advantage for the Wildcats, but UCLA still meets the minimum number for Final Four consideration, and remember UCLA won at Kentucky earlier this season

R+T Rating: UK 17.2, UCLA 10.9

Ability to Win Away from Home: UK 16-3, UCLA 14-3, nothing to learn here

Winning Streak(s): UK 13 & 7, UCLA 13 & 10, not much here either

We must handicap the following stats in UK’s favor fde to the strengths of schedule
Scoring Margin: UK 13.9, UCLA 15.0, basically a wash
FG% Differential: UK 5.4, UCLA 10.2, The Bruins pick up a big advantage here with Championship-caliber differential
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 74, expect the most up-tempo game of the Sweet 16, and it could even top 75.

Face it: this is the game that is going to make this round. The winner most likely plays North Carolina in the Elite 8, making for a fantastic 48-hours in Memphis, where they could move these games to the Liberty Bowl and still not have enough seats for the fans that want to get in. Think of this game like the second Ali-Frazier fight. Or, if you are a Bruin fan over the age of 55, be forewarned and remember that Houston beat your Bruins in the 1967-68 regular season before meeting up with the worst ever whipping by a number one team in the history of the game.

PiRate Criteria Pick: KENTUCKY — Until the Wildcats are knocked out of the tournament, they have the best resume when comparing it to past National Champions.

 

Florida vs. Wisconsin
Power Conference: Both

Strength of Schedule: Fla 59.34, UW 54.79, The Gators have a decided advantage

R+T Rating: Fla 3.3, UW 3.3 This is a dirty wash, as neither team can expect to be a Championship team with these R+T ratings.

Ability to Win Away from Home: Fla 17-7, UW 12-7, Florida played a lot of neutral site games near home when their arena was not ready following remodeling. This becomes a wash

Winning Streak(s): Fla. 9 & 7, UW 9 & 8, a wash

Since the strengths of schedule favor the Gators, the following stats must be handicapped in UF’s favor. Scoring Margin: UF 6.2, UW 9.2, a wash
FG% Differential: UF 4.6, UW 4.2, a small edge for the Gators
Estimated Possessions per team in this game: 69 We look for the Badgers to slow the tempo a little

When Florida isn’t playing Vanderbilt, they look like Final Four contenders. Actually, two of the three losses to the Commodores came after the Gators lost John Egbunu for the season due to injury, and UF went from 23-5 to 24-8 after that loss. This discounts the Gators’ results enough to make up for the schedule strength favor. In other words, this is a game where you flip a coin. We do not use the Four Factors in this criteria selection process, but if we were to use them for this game, it would just add a bunch of balance, as the teams would come out dead even. We must select somebody to go on and lose to Baylor Sunday, and just because they have a little more recent NCAA Tournament success, we will go with the Badgers.

PiRate Criteria Pick: WISCONSIN –but this is really a tie

Elite 8 to Final Four
Baylor over Wisconsin
Arizona over West Virginia
Kentucky over North Carolina
Kansas over Oregon

Semifinals
Baylor over Arizona
Kentucky over Kansas

Championship
Kentucky over Baylor

Note: When we first revealed the criteria for all 68 teams in the dance, we listed the top 10 teams with the best matching criteria to past champions. The top 6 teams in this list, and 8 of the 10 made the Sweet 16. Here is that top 10 again.
1. Kentucky
2. North Carolina
3. Baylor
4. Arizona
5. West Virginia
6. Gonzaga
7. Louisville
8. Villanova
9. Kansas
10. Purdue