PiRate Picks–October 9-10, 2021

Last week, time constraints limited this weekly feature to the bare minimum. We have plenty of time this week, so rather than just list the games we have chosen, there’s time to go a little more in-depth with our selections.

First, we made a minimal profit of imaginary revenue last week, as we hit on the long odds 4-game parlay at +372.50 with Texas beating TCU, Wake Forest beating Louisville, South Carolina beating Troy, and Oklahoma State holding on to edge Baylor.

This week presented us with numerous opportunities where certain factors triggered plays. We ended up trimming it to eight parlays, and all but one game coming on Saturday. We had one key Sunday game but could not find an NFL partner for the game, so it attached to other college games to give us the biggest odds of the week. Without further adieu, here are our picks for this week. Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, and we highly encourage you not to wager real money on these selections, unless you have other research that the information herein merely endorses.

Odds:	+153.06
Must Win	Opponent
Wake Forest	Syracuse
Baylor	West Virginia

This first parlay is cut and dry. We believe that the public is not all that high on the two favorites. Wake Forest is supposed to be weak most years, but Dave Clawson has the Demon Deacons creeping up on Clemson for best in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. Baylor came oh so close to knocking off Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week. Had they pulled that win off, the Bears might be approaching the Top 10. West Virginia has played a tough schedule in a short time, and we feel they might show some fatigue in this game.

Odds:	+155
Must Win	Opponent
UTSA	Western Kentucky

Obviously, this is not a parlay. It is one of four games where we are picking an underdog to win straight up. Western Kentucky is due to bounce after getting up and playing a close game at Michigan State, while UTSA has quietly started 5-0 with a Power 5 win.

Odds:	+160
Must Win	Opponent
Texas	Oklahoma

It hasn’t been often in the last 15 years that we went into the second weekend in October believing that Texas would beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma has been narrowly escaping with wins over mediocre competition. After getting pasted at Arkansas, Texas has begun to look like a team ready to compete for the Big 12 Championship Game. We consider this a tossup game, so we go with the better odds and the underdog.

Odds:	+160
Must Win	Opponent
Nebraska	Michigan

This is more of a system play. Nebraska won by more than 38 points in a conference game and now plays a conference home game the next week. In a high percentage of cases like this, the home team continues to play at the same top level it played the previous week. Additionally, Michigan is on the road for the second consecutive week in a key conference game. This has the look of a traditional upset.

Odds:	+161.90
Must Win	Opponent
San Jose St.	Colorado St.
Bowling Green	Akron

The key game here is the San Jose State-Colorado State game. We feel like the wrong team is favored. However, playing SJSU in a single game does not supply us with the odds we look for when playing Money Lines. So, we added the Bowling Green game to it to make a parlay that has fat payout odds. The betting public may not see how much the Falcons have improved this year, while Akron remains one of the five worst teams in the FBS.

Odds:	+188.93
Must Win	Opponent
Iowa	Penn St.
Tennessee	South Carolina
Arizona St.	Stanford

This is the first of three big-odds payouts we are playing this week. In the first game in this parlay, our ratings show Iowa at the present time to be good enough to run the table and make the Playoffs. Penn State looks like a 10-2 team destined to play on New Year’s Day in Florida. Kirk Ferentz may have his best team in Iowa City.

In the second leg of this parlay, Tennessee fits the same criteria that Nebraska faces. They won by 38 points against a conference opponent and play at home this week against another conference opponent. While South Carolina’s defense is considerably better than Missouri’s, their offense is not as sharp, and we believe Josh Heupel’s Vols are sitting on another great performance.

The third part of this parlay is simply a case where we believe Arizona State is clearly superior to Stanford on both sides of the ball and should win by double digits.

Odds:	+195.50
Must Win	Opponent
South Alabama	Texas St.
Kent St.	Buffalo
Wisconsin	Illinois

South Alabama looks to be 10-14 points better than Texas State, and when we saw the Money Line odds on this game, it was the first one that went into our play pool. Kent State has a score to settle with Buffalo. In the weird Covid year of 2020, The Golden Flashes only managed to get four games in the books. Buffalo was the last, and Kent State went into this game 3-0 and averaging 53 points per game. Buffalo was also 3-0. The Bulls hung 70 points on the Flashes. Kent State gets their revenge this week.

Wisconsin is the best 1-3 team in America. It is odd how many times unforced errors have hurt the Badgers in their three losses. The Badgers don’t particularly like their rival to the south, and we expect UW to win this game by a large margin.

Odds:	+241.12
Must Win	Opponent
Central Michigan	Ohio U
BYU	Boise St.
Carolina	Philadelphia

Finally, we come to our biggest odds play of the week. We only found one NFL game we wanted to play based on the Money Line odds, so we had to parlay the Carolina Panthers with a couple of college games.

While 2021 looks like a so-so year for Central Michigan, Ohio is in a state of flux after former coach Frank Solich retired during the Summer. The Bobcats are almost sleep-walking through games this year, which can be attributed to growing pains.

Boise State is a mere shell of its former self under Bryan Harsin. New coach Andy Avalos inherited 16 returning starters, but the Broncos never played up to their potential last year and appear to be repeating it this year. Maybe, they were just a bit overrated?

BYU has shown the world that they were more than just Zach Wilson last year. The Cougars’ defense is top notch, while the offense is a bit more deliberate this year, but it helps the defense perform even better. Other than the fact that the Cougars may be looking ahead a tad to next week’s game at Baylor, everything here looks like a BYU win.

Carolina should be a heavier favorite over Philadelphia. The loss to Dallas has been factored a bit too heavily. We like the Panthers solely because their Money Line odds are so favorable this week.

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 7-9, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Houston	-4.6	-4.9	-4.0
Arkansas St.	Coastal Carolina	-26.7	-23.6	-27.4
Cincinnati	Temple	43.0	41.0	43.9
Florida Int’l.	Charlotte	-0.3	-0.7	-0.5
Arizona St.	Stanford	12.6	12.4	13.3
North Carolina	Florida St.	17.8	18.2	20.2
Rutgers	Michigan St.	-8.0	-5.5	-6.6
Massachusetts	Connecticut	0.4	-1.4	-0.9
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-11.1	-10.2	-11.9
Central Florida	East Carolina	5.6	5.0	6.1
Ohio St.	Maryland	17.7	19.0	21.6
Bowling Green	Akron	3.3	5.7	5.0
Toledo	Northern Illinois	11.3	12.7	12.5
Kent St.	Buffalo	-0.3	2.2	-0.2
Duke	Georgia Tech	-6.7	-5.9	-7.7
Western Michigan	Ball St.	4.5	5.3	6.4
Liberty	Middle Tennessee	22.8	23.9	23.1
Louisville	Virginia	1.6	0.0	3.0
Air Force	Wyoming	5.1	4.8	4.9
BYU	Boise St.	9.8	9.6	9.8
Marshall	Old Dominion	22.6	21.6	22.5
Colorado St.	San Jose St.	-3.0	-2.9	-0.5
USC	Utah	7.4	7.5	9.2
Washington St.	Oregon St.	-9.3	-8.2	-9.6
Tennessee	South Carolina	9.0	8.7	9.5
Navy	SMU	-12.2	-13.6	-13.2
Texas Tech	TCU	-5.8	-4.0	-5.7
Auburn	Georgia	-14.6	-15.5	-16.1
Kentucky	LSU	-0.2	0.8	-0.8
Baylor	West Virginia	-1.0	0.2	0.3
Missouri	North Texas	25.0	25.7	25.3
Texas St.	South Alabama	-6.0	-8.2	-7.3
UAB	Florida Atlantic	5.7	3.8	4.5
Florida	Vanderbilt	38.6	40.8	40.5
Tulsa	Memphis	5.0	4.2	3.4
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia St.	-11.9	-11.1	-13.5
Illinois	Wisconsin	-10.3	-10.0	-11.3
Eastern Michigan	Miami (O)	-2.8	-2.5	-3.3
Texas (N)	Oklahoma	-4.9	-4.1	-3.7
Nebraska	Michigan	0.0	-0.6	-0.5
Troy	Georgia Southern	5.3	5.3	6.1
Ohio U	Central Michigan	-9.3	-6.8	-7.3
Texas A&M	Alabama	-14.3	-12.8	-15.3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	6.0	5.9	7.0
Southern Miss.	UTEP	5.8	6.2	7.8
Western Kentucky	UTSA	-7.3	-6.2	-5.9
Iowa	Penn St.	6.0	4.4	4.6
Virginia Tech	Notre Dame	-2.1	-4.2	-5.1
Arizona	UCLA	-14.3	-15.2	-15.2
San Diego St.	New Mexico	24.0	23.3	25.0
Nevada	New Mexico St.	32.4	33.1	34.5

28 Teams Off This Week!

Appalachian St.

Army

Boston College

California

Clemson

Colorado

Fresno St.

Hawaii

Indiana

Iowa St.

Kansas

Kansas St.

Louisiana

Louisiana Tech

Miami (Fla.)

Minnesota

Mississippi St.

North Carolina St.

Northwestern

Oklahoma St.

Oregon

Pittsburgh

Purdue

Rice

South Florida

UNLV

Utah St.

Washington

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	134.4
2	Alabama	131.1
3	Oklahoma	123.4
4	Ohio St.	122.8
5	Cincinnati	121.5
6	Iowa St.	120.5
7	Iowa	119.7
8	Texas	119.1
9	Florida	118.3
10	Penn St.	117.7
11	Ole Miss	117.2
12	Clemson	117.2
13	Auburn	116.0
14	U S C	115.2
15	Arizona St.	114.9
16	North Carolina	114.1
17	Texas A&M	114.0
18	Michigan	113.9
19	Arkansas	113.9
20	Notre Dame	113.4
21	Oregon	112.5
22	L S U	112.2
23	Coastal Carolina	111.8
24	West Virginia	111.8
25	Oregon St.	111.8
26	T C U	111.5
27	Oklahoma St.	110.7
28	Nebraska	110.6
29	Wake Forest	110.2
30	Utah	110.1
31	BYU	109.9
32	Miami (Fla.)	109.5
33	U C L A	109.5
34	Kentucky	109.2
35	Baylor	108.6
36	Washington	108.6
37	Wisconsin	108.5
38	Michigan St.	108.4
39	Mississippi St.	108.4
40	NC State	108.0
41	Indiana	107.5
42	Tennessee	107.2
43	Liberty	107.1
44	Kansas St.	107.0
45	Virginia Tech	106.6
46	Maryland	106.4
47	Louisiana	106.1
48	Minnesota	105.9
49	Pittsburgh	105.5
50	Boston College	105.5
51	Stanford	105.1
52	Purdue	105.0
53	Appalachian St.	105.0
54	Virginia	104.6
55	Texas Tech	103.3
56	Boise St.	103.2
57	Louisville	103.1
58	Houston	103.0
59	SMU	102.6
60	Missouri	102.5
61	San Diego St.	102.0
62	Nevada	101.2
63	South Carolina	101.1
64	Fresno St.	100.3
65	UCF	100.3
66	Army	100.2
67	Air Force	100.1
68	Georgia Tech	99.8
69	Washington St.	99.8
70	Colorado	99.4
71	Rutgers	98.7
72	Miami (Ohio)	98.5
73	Florida St.	98.4
74	California	98.1
75	Wyoming	98.1
76	East Carolina	97.7
77	Toledo	97.1
78	U T S A	96.9
79	Northwestern	96.8
80	Central Michigan	96.3
81	Western Michigan	96.2
82	Syracuse	96.1
83	Tulane	96.0
84	San Jose St.	96.0
85	U A B	95.9
86	Illinois	95.5
87	Buffalo	95.4
88	Tulsa	95.2
89	Marshall	94.6
90	Florida Atlantic	93.7
91	Hawaii	93.6
92	Memphis	93.5
93	Kent St.	93.4
94	Ball St.	93.3
95	Eastern Michigan	93.0
96	South Alabama	91.9
97	Troy	91.8
98	Arizona	91.6
99	Georgia St.	91.4
100	Colorado St.	90.9
101	Duke	90.6
102	Utah St.	90.2
103	Louisiana Tech	89.5
104	Georgia Southern	88.7
105	USF	88.6
106	Western Kentucky	87.9
107	Northern Illinois	87.4
108	Navy	87.0
109	Middle Tennessee	86.8
110	Ohio	85.9
111	U N L V	85.1
112	Arkansas St.	83.9
113	Southern Miss.	83.0
114	Texas St.	82.7
115	Rice	82.1
116	Charlotte	81.9
117	Temple	81.8
118	Vanderbilt	81.4
119	New Mexico	80.9
120	North Texas	80.2
121	Kansas	79.9
122	Florida Int’l.	78.9
123	U T E P	78.4
124	Bowling Green	77.3
125	UL-Monroe	76.7
126	Old Dominion	74.9
127	Akron	74.1
128	Connecticut	71.8
129	New Mexico St.	70.8
130	UMass	69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	121.0	120.5	123.0	121.5
Houston	103.3	102.2	103.6	103.0
SMU	102.0	102.7	103.0	102.6
UCF	100.2	99.0	101.8	100.3
East Carolina	97.6	97.0	98.6	97.7
Tulane	96.2	94.8	97.0	96.0
Tulsa	95.4	95.3	94.9	95.2
Memphis	92.9	93.5	94.1	93.5
USF	88.9	88.2	88.8	88.6
Navy	87.3	86.6	87.3	87.0
Temple	81.0	82.5	82.0	81.8
AAC Averages	96.9	96.6	97.6	97.0

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	116.5	116.6	118.4	117.2
Wake Forest	110.3	109.6	110.7	110.2
NC State	108.3	107.7	107.9	108.0
Boston College	105.1	105.6	105.7	105.5
Louisville	102.7	102.4	104.3	103.1
Florida St.	98.4	98.4	98.3	98.4
Syracuse	96.3	96.4	95.8	96.1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	113.2	113.6	115.5	114.1
Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.9	109.8	109.5
Virginia Tech	107.5	106.2	106.2	106.6
Pittsburgh	105.2	106.0	105.4	105.5
Virginia	104.1	105.4	104.3	104.6
Georgia Tech	99.8	99.9	99.8	99.8
Duke	90.6	91.5	89.6	90.6
ACC Averages	104.8	104.9	105.1	104.9

Big 12 Conference

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	124.7	122.4	123.0	123.4
Iowa St.	121.1	119.5	120.9	120.5
Texas	119.8	118.3	119.3	119.1
West Virginia	113.3	111.5	110.6	111.8
T C U	112.1	110.8	111.5	111.5
Oklahoma St.	111.0	110.8	110.2	110.7
Baylor	109.3	108.7	107.9	108.6
Kansas St.	107.3	107.2	106.5	107.0
Texas Tech	103.3	103.8	102.8	103.3
Kansas	82.4	80.0	77.3	79.9
Big 12 Averages	110.4	109.3	109.0	109.6

Big Ten Conference

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	122.3	122.2	124.0	122.8
Penn St.	116.4	117.4	119.2	117.7
Michigan	113.2	114.2	114.4	113.9
Michigan St.	108.7	108.4	108.2	108.4
Indiana	107.3	107.1	108.1	107.5
Maryland	107.6	106.2	105.4	106.4
Rutgers	97.6	99.9	98.5	98.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	119.4	118.9	120.8	119.7
Nebraska	110.2	110.6	110.9	110.6
Wisconsin	108.0	107.9	109.5	108.5
Minnesota	104.9	105.8	107.0	105.9
Purdue	104.6	104.2	106.3	105.0
Northwestern	96.9	97.0	96.6	96.8
Illinois	95.2	95.4	95.8	95.5
Big Ten Averages	108.0	108.3	108.9	108.4

Conference USA

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	94.5	94.3	95.1	94.6
Florida Atlantic	92.8	94.4	94.0	93.7
Western Kentucky	86.9	88.5	88.3	87.9
Middle Tennessee	86.5	86.4	87.6	86.8
Charlotte	81.0	82.0	82.6	81.9
Florida Int’l.	78.2	78.9	79.6	78.9
Old Dominion	74.4	75.2	75.0	74.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	96.7	97.2	96.8	96.9
U A B	96.0	95.8	95.9	95.9
Louisiana Tech	89.7	90.2	88.7	89.5
Southern Miss.	82.4	83.5	83.0	83.0
Rice	82.1	82.0	82.1	82.1
North Texas	80.5	80.3	79.8	80.2
U T E P	78.6	79.3	77.2	78.4
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	86.1	86.0

Independents

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.6	113.4	114.3	113.4
BYU	109.9	109.4	110.4	109.9
Liberty	106.3	107.2	107.7	107.1
Army	100.3	100.3	99.9	100.2
Connecticut	72.1	73.1	70.2	71.8
New Mexico St.	71.2	71.9	69.4	70.8
UMass	71.0	70.1	67.8	69.6

Mid-American Conference

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	100.0	98.0	97.4	98.5
Buffalo	96.0	95.0	95.1	95.4
Kent St.	93.2	94.6	92.5	93.4
Ohio	85.3	86.5	86.0	85.9
Bowling Green	77.5	78.2	76.1	77.3
Akron	75.7	74.0	72.7	74.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	97.6	97.2	96.4	97.1
Central Michigan	97.2	95.8	95.8	96.3
Western Michigan	96.1	96.7	95.7	96.2
Ball St.	94.1	94.0	91.8	93.3
Eastern Michigan	94.7	92.9	91.5	93.0
Northern Illinois	88.7	87.0	86.4	87.4
MAC Averages	91.3	90.8	89.8	90.7

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.1	102.8	103.6	103.2
Air Force	99.7	100.0	100.6	100.1
Wyoming	97.6	98.1	98.7	98.1
Colorado St.	90.7	90.7	91.3	90.9
Utah St.	89.9	90.8	89.9	90.2
New Mexico	81.3	81.5	79.9	80.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	102.3	101.8	101.9	102.0
Nevada	100.6	102.0	100.9	101.2
Fresno St.	99.2	100.6	101.3	100.3
San Jose St.	96.6	96.6	94.8	96.0
Hawaii	93.7	93.4	93.7	93.6
U N L V	85.5	84.6	85.2	85.1
MWC Averages	95.0	95.2	95.1	95.1

Pac-12 Conference

North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.6	112.5	113.5	112.5
Oregon St.	111.6	111.6	112.1	111.8
Washington	107.5	109.0	109.2	108.6
Stanford	104.7	105.7	105.0	105.1
Washington St.	99.4	100.4	99.5	99.8
California	96.0	99.9	98.6	98.1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	114.7	114.7	116.0	115.2
Arizona St.	114.4	115.1	115.3	114.9
Utah	110.4	110.2	109.8	110.1
U C L A	109.2	109.6	109.7	109.5
Colorado	99.9	99.4	98.9	99.4
Arizona	91.9	91.4	91.5	91.6
Pac-12 Averages	105.9	106.6	106.6	106.4

Southeastern Conference

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.9	134.0	135.5	134.4
Florida	117.6	119.1	118.3	118.3
Kentucky	108.4	110.2	108.9	109.2
Tennessee	107.3	106.9	107.3	107.2
Missouri	102.5	103.0	102.1	102.5
South Carolina	101.4	101.2	100.8	101.1
Vanderbilt	82.0	81.3	80.8	81.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.1	130.2	132.1	131.1
Ole Miss	117.1	117.0	117.5	117.2
Auburn	116.3	115.4	116.4	116.0
Texas A&M	113.8	114.4	113.8	114.0
Arkansas	114.1	114.1	113.5	113.9
L S U	111.6	112.4	112.7	112.2
Mississippi St.	108.4	108.6	108.1	108.4
SEC Averages	111.8	112.0	112.0	111.9

Sun Belt Conference

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	112.5	110.3	112.5	111.8
Appalachian St.	104.5	104.2	106.3	105.0
Troy	91.5	91.9	92.0	91.8
Georgia St.	91.8	91.0	91.4	91.4
Georgia Southern	88.7	89.1	88.4	88.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	106.8	105.0	106.6	106.1
South Alabama	92.1	92.1	91.4	91.9
Arkansas St.	83.9	84.7	83.1	83.9
Texas St.	84.1	81.9	82.1	82.7
UL-Monroe	77.3	77.4	75.4	76.7
Sun Averages	93.3	92.8	92.9	93.0

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.9
2	Big 12	109.6
3	Big Ten	108.4
4	Pac-12	106.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.9
6	American Athletic	97.0
7	Mountain West	95.1
8	Sun Belt	93.0
9	Independents	91.8
10	Mid-American	90.7
11	Conference USA	86.0

PiRate Ratings Commence Bowl Projections Today

With one month of play in the books, it is time to begin issuing our Bowl Projections. This is starting to look like a fractured college football season. The Atlantic Coast Conference and Pac-12 Conference have basically been eliminated from Playoff contention. In the Big 12, Oklahoma looks anything like a Playoff team, and Ohio State’s loss at home to Oregon now looks much worse with Oregon losing to Stanford.

Meanwhile, the SEC has two super teams that should be co-number ones. Alabama and Georgia might finish the regular season as the top two seeds even though one team must lose a game in the SEC Championship Game.

Cincinnati’s road win over Notre Dame is enough for now to put them in the Field of Four, but only if either the Big 12 or Big Ten champions have a loss. The Bearcats still have some tough conference opposition to conquer in SMU and Houston.

The Redbox Bowl has already cancelled their 2021 game, and that leaves spots for 82 teams in the postseason. As of today, we count 85 teams that are on pace of a minimum of six wins. The 6-6 line has a large number of teams.

Here is our first stab at the projections for 2021-22. Unlike recent years, there is a lot more wiggle room for different conferences to appear in multiple bowls.

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	UTSA	Toledo
Cure	Liberty	Marshall
Boca	Florida Atlantic	Coastal Carolina
New Mexico	UTEP	Wyoming
Independence	BYU	Louisiana Tech
Lending Tree	Western Michigan	Troy
L. A.	San Jose St.	Arizona St.
New Orleans	UAB	Louisiana
Myrtle Beach	Appalachian St.	Northern Illinois
Famous Idaho Potato	Kent St.	Boise St.
Frisco	Memphis	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Army	Washington
Gasparilla	East Carolina	Iowa St.
Hawaii	Houston	Nevada
Camellia	Miami (O)	South Alabama
Quick Lane	Ball St.	Western Kentucky
Military	Virginia Tech	Central Florida
Birmingham	Miami (Fla.)	Mississippi St.
First Responder	TCU	Fresno St.
Liberty	Kansas St.	Arkansas
Holiday	North Carolina	Utah
Guaranteed Rate	Air Force	Baylor
Fenway	Boston College	SMU
Pinstripe	Pittsburgh	Indiana
Cheez-It	Wake Forest	Texas
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	Stanford
Duke’s Mayo	North Carolina St.	Auburn
Music City	Minnesota	Tennessee
Las Vegas	Wisconsin	USC
Tax Slayer Gator	Virginia	LSU
Tony The Tiger Sun	Louisville	UCLA
Arizona	Central Michigan	San Diego St.
Citrus	Michigan	Ole Miss
Outback	Michigan St.	Florida
Texas	Texas Tech	Texas A&M
Peach	Clemson	Penn St.
Fiesta	Oregon	Notre Dame
Rose	Ohio St.	Oregon St.
Sugar	Kentucky	Oklahoma
Cotton	Iowa	Alabama
Orange	Georgia	Cincinnati
Championship	Georgia	Alabama

This Week’s TV Fare

This week presents fewer total games, as we mentioned early that 28 teams have bye weeks. There are a handful of important and exciting games on the schedule, but this may be the week to watch the Major League Baseball Playoffs more than college football.

Saturday, October 9
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	ABC	Texas (n)	Oklahoma
	Fox	Ohio St.	Maryland
	ESPN	Ole Miss	Arkansas
	ESPN2	Tennessee	South Carolina
	FS1	Baylor	West Virginia
	CBSSN	Toledo	Northern Illinois
	BTN	Rutgers	Michigan St.
	SEC	Florida	Vanderbilt
3:00 PM	ACC	Louisville	Virginia
3:30 PM	CBS	Auburn	Georgia
	ABC	BYU	Boise St.
	ESPN	North Carolina	Florida St.
	ESPN2	Syracuse	Wake Forest
	FS1	Colorado St.	San Jose St.
	CBSSN	Navy	SMU
	BTN	Illinois	Wisconsin
4:00 PM	Fox	Iowa	Penn St.
	SEC	Missouri	North Texas
	Pac-12	Washington St.	Oregon St.
7:00 PM	ESPN	Texas Tech	TCU
	ESPNU	Kent St.	Buffalo
	CBSSN	Air Force	Wyoming
7:30 PM	ABC	Nebraska	Michigan
	SEC	Kentucky	LSU
	ACC	Virginia Tech	Notre Dame
8:00 PM	CBS	Texas A&M	Alabama
	FOX	USC	Utah
	FS1	San Diego St.	New Mexico
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Tulsa	Memphis
10:30 PM	ESPN	Arizona	UCLA
	CBSSN	Nevada	New Mexico St.

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 30-October 2, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia	11.8	9.0	11.8
Tulsa	Houston	0.9	2.5	0.6
Maryland	Iowa	-0.3	-1.2	-4.2
Utah St.	BYU	-18.9	-17.5	-20.0
Florida St.	Syracuse	4.6	4.6	5.5
North Carolina	Duke	22.0	21.1	25.5
East Carolina	Tulane	-1.6	-1.2	-2.1
Clemson	Boston College	15.8	15.6	17.8
Purdue	Minnesota	5.2	3.7	5.2
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	3.2	2.5	3.4
North Carolina St.	Louisiana Tech	23.8	22.6	24.9
Georgia St.	Appalachian St.	-6.2	-6.4	-8.2
South Carolina	Troy	13.5	12.9	12.6
Ball St.	Army	-8.5	-8.8	-11.2
Penn St.	Indiana	8.8	10.0	10.6
Temple	Memphis	-12.4	-11.5	-12.9
Iowa St.	Kansas	40.0	40.6	45.4
Massachusetts	Toledo	-20.6	-21.2	-22.7
Illinois	Charlotte	17.6	17.0	16.7
Wake Forest	Louisville	11.4	10.9	10.4
Buffalo	Western Michigan	4.6	3.0	4.6
Rutgers	Ohio St.	-15.3	-13.1	-15.6
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana-Monroe	34.8	31.9	36.7
Northern Illinois	Eastern Michigan	-5.1	-5.4	-4.5
Boise St.	Nevada	10.0	8.3	10.6
New Mexico	Air Force	-10.6	-10.5	-12.7
Colorado	USC	-8.8	-9.2	-11.1
Notre Dame	Cincinnati	-4.1	-2.1	-4.0
San Jose St.	New Mexico St.	31.3	30.7	31.6
Oregon St.	Washington	7.5	6.0	6.5
California	Washington St.	3.3	6.8	6.6
Stanford	Oregon	-4.7	-4.8	-7.2
Miami (O)	Central Michigan	5.0	4.0	2.9
Kent St.	Bowling Green	19.3	20.5	20.7
Alabama	Ole Miss	16.5	15.4	16.8
Navy	Central Florida	-13.4	-13.1	-15.8
SMU	South Florida	13.7	15.3	14.6
Oklahoma St.	Baylor	3.6	3.7	3.7
Georgia	Arkansas	18.8	18.7	21.1
Akron	Ohio U	-4.5	-7.7	-8.6
Missouri	Tennessee	6.7	7.9	6.7
TCU	Texas	-4.2	-3.8	-3.9
Kentucky	Florida	-8.6	-8.4	-9.3
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	-16.2	-13.8	-15.8
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	9.6	10.6	9.0
Vanderbilt	Connecticut	13.6	11.7	14.7
West Virginia	Texas Tech	16.4	13.8	14.3
LSU	Auburn	-0.8	1.5	0.9
Wisconsin	Michigan	2.6	1.4	3.2
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	12.3	12.9	13.0
Georgia Southern	Arkansas St.	2.1	1.2	2.2
UTSA	UNLV	14.8	16.6	15.6
Rice	Southern Miss.	1.8	0.2	0.9
South Alabama	Louisiana	-13.5	-11.5	-14.5
UAB	Liberty	-3.7	-4.9	-5.2
Middle Tennessee	Marshall	-8.1	-8.2	-7.7
Nebraska	Northwestern	7.8	8.1	8.8
Michigan St.	Western Kentucky	25.6	23.6	23.7
UTEP	Old Dominion	6.4	6.4	4.0
UCLA	Arizona St.	2.0	1.9	2.0
Hawaii	Fresno St.	-2.0	-4.4	-4.9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	132.2
2	Alabama	130.8
3	Oklahoma	124.5
4	Cincinnati	120.3
5	Iowa St.	119.9
6	Florida	119.3
7	Ohio St.	119.1
8	Texas	118.5
9	Clemson	118.0
10	Ole Miss	117.6
11	Texas A&M	116.4
12	Penn St.	116.2
13	Arkansas	115.7
14	Auburn	115.1
15	Iowa	114.8
16	Notre Dame	113.9
17	U S C	113.6
18	West Virginia	113.6
19	Oregon	113.3
20	North Carolina	113.3
21	L S U	112.6
22	Arizona St.	112.2
23	Oregon St.	112.0
24	U C L A	111.7
25	Michigan	111.7
26	T C U	111.6
27	Miami (Fla.)	111.1
28	Wisconsin	111.1
29	Wake Forest	110.6
30	BYU	110.2
31	Coastal Carolina	110.0
32	Oklahoma St.	109.9
33	Maryland	109.9
34	Utah	109.8
35	NC State	109.4
36	Indiana	109.4
37	Baylor	109.2
38	Michigan St.	108.8
39	Washington	108.3
40	Kentucky	107.5
41	Louisiana	107.1
42	Mississippi St.	106.7
43	Missouri	106.7
44	Purdue	106.6
45	Nebraska	106.6
46	Virginia Tech	106.3
47	Kansas St.	106.2
48	Boise St.	105.8
49	Liberty	105.3
50	Minnesota	104.8
51	Stanford	104.7
52	Boston College	104.6
53	Virginia	103.3
54	Army	102.8
55	Louisville	102.7
56	Georgia Tech	102.7
57	Appalachian St.	102.7
58	Pittsburgh	102.6
59	Tennessee	102.6
60	UCF	102.5
61	Texas Tech	101.8
62	San Diego St.	101.7
63	South Carolina	101.4
64	Rutgers	101.4
65	Northwestern	101.3
66	SMU	101.3
67	Colorado	100.9
68	Fresno St.	100.9
69	Houston	100.5
70	California	100.4
71	Nevada	99.1
72	Tulane	98.9
73	Tulsa	98.8
74	Florida St.	98.7
75	Wyoming	97.9
76	Miami (Ohio)	97.9
77	Washington St.	97.8
78	San Jose St.	97.8
79	U A B	97.7
80	Air Force	97.6
81	U T S A	97.3
82	Central Michigan	96.9
83	Buffalo	96.7
84	Marshall	96.4
85	Syracuse	96.3
86	Illinois	95.7
87	Toledo	95.3
88	Western Michigan	95.1
89	Memphis	95.0
90	East Carolina	94.3
91	Eastern Michigan	94.2
92	Kent St.	94.2
93	Georgia St.	93.7
94	Hawaii	93.1
95	Troy	91.4
96	Duke	91.4
97	Arizona	91.3
98	South Alabama	90.9
99	Ball St.	90.7
100	Colorado St.	90.7
101	Florida Atlantic	90.7
102	Utah St.	89.9
103	USF	89.7
104	Louisiana Tech	88.6
105	Western Kentucky	87.5
106	Arkansas St.	86.6
107	Northern Illinois	86.2
108	Georgia Southern	86.0
109	Navy	85.4
110	Middle Tennessee	85.4
111	Ohio	85.0
112	U N L V	84.6
113	New Mexico	83.4
114	Southern Miss.	83.3
115	Texas St.	82.5
116	Vanderbilt	82.4
117	Florida Int’l.	82.0
118	Rice	81.8
119	Charlotte	81.6
120	Kansas	80.9
121	Temple	80.7
122	North Texas	80.0
123	UL-Monroe	78.5
124	U T E P	78.0
125	Bowling Green	76.5
126	Akron	75.6
127	Old Dominion	74.9
128	UMass	71.7
129	Connecticut	71.1
130	New Mexico St.	69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	120.0	119.2	121.8	120.3
UCF	102.2	101.1	104.2	102.5
SMU	100.7	101.5	101.6	101.3
Houston	100.9	99.5	101.0	100.5
Tulane	99.0	97.7	100.1	98.9
Tulsa	98.8	99.0	98.5	98.8
Memphis	94.3	94.9	95.7	95.0
East Carolina	94.3	93.6	95.0	94.3
USF	90.0	89.2	90.0	89.7
Navy	85.8	85.0	85.4	85.4
Temple	79.9	81.4	80.7	80.7
AAC Averages	96.9	96.6	97.6	97.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	117.2	117.4	119.4	118.0
Wake Forest	110.7	110.0	111.2	110.6
NC State	109.6	109.0	109.5	109.4
Boston College	104.4	104.8	104.7	104.6
Louisville	102.3	102.0	103.8	102.7
Florida St.	98.6	98.7	98.8	98.7
Syracuse	96.6	96.6	95.8	96.3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	112.4	112.6	114.8	113.3
Miami (Fla.)	111.6	110.3	111.6	111.1
Virginia Tech	107.2	105.9	105.9	106.3
Virginia	102.8	104.3	102.8	103.3
Georgia Tech	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7
Pittsburgh	102.4	103.2	102.4	102.6
Duke	91.4	92.5	90.3	91.4
ACC Averages	105.0	105.0	105.3	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	125.8	123.3	124.3	124.5
Iowa St.	120.4	118.7	120.4	119.9
Texas	119.3	117.7	118.6	118.5
West Virginia	115.2	113.2	112.5	113.6
T C U	112.1	110.9	111.7	111.6
Oklahoma St.	110.3	110.0	109.3	109.9
Baylor	109.8	109.3	108.6	109.2
Kansas St.	106.5	106.6	105.5	106.2
Texas Tech	101.7	102.4	101.2	101.8
Kansas	83.4	81.1	78.1	80.9
Big 12 Averages	110.5	109.3	109.0	109.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	118.6	118.6	120.1	119.1
Penn St.	114.9	115.9	117.6	116.2
Michigan	111.0	112.0	112.0	111.7
Maryland	111.1	109.7	108.7	109.9
Indiana	109.1	108.9	110.0	109.4
Michigan St.	109.1	108.7	108.6	108.8
Rutgers	100.3	102.5	101.4	101.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	114.4	113.9	116.0	114.8
Wisconsin	110.5	110.4	112.2	111.1
Purdue	106.1	105.6	108.0	106.6
Nebraska	106.2	106.6	106.9	106.6
Minnesota	103.9	104.9	105.8	104.8
Northwestern	101.4	101.5	101.1	101.3
Illinois	95.4	95.7	96.1	95.7
Big Ten Averages	108.0	108.2	108.9	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	96.2	96.1	96.9	96.4
Florida Atlantic	89.8	91.4	90.8	90.7
Western Kentucky	86.5	88.2	87.9	87.5
Middle Tennessee	85.1	84.9	86.1	85.4
Florida Int’l.	81.2	81.9	82.8	82.0
Charlotte	80.8	81.7	82.3	81.6
Old Dominion	74.4	75.2	75.2	74.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	97.8	97.6	97.7	97.7
U T S A	97.0	97.7	97.3	97.3
Louisiana Tech	88.9	89.4	87.6	88.6
Southern Miss.	82.6	83.9	83.3	83.3
Rice	81.9	81.6	81.8	81.8
North Texas	80.3	80.1	79.6	80.0
U T E P	78.3	79.0	76.7	78.0
CUSA Averages	85.8	86.3	86.2	86.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.9	114.0	114.8	113.9
BYU	110.1	109.6	110.9	110.2
Liberty	104.5	105.4	105.9	105.3
Army	102.7	102.8	102.7	102.8
UMass	73.1	72.2	69.9	71.7
Connecticut	71.4	72.5	69.3	71.1
New Mexico St.	70.0	70.7	68.0	69.6
Indep. Averages	92.1	92.5	91.6	92.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.6	97.4	96.6	97.9
Buffalo	97.3	96.3	96.6	96.7
Kent St.	93.8	95.4	93.4	94.2
Ohio	84.2	85.6	85.1	85.0
Bowling Green	76.9	77.4	75.2	76.5
Akron	77.3	75.4	74.1	75.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	97.6	96.4	96.6	96.9
Toledo	95.8	95.4	94.6	95.3
Western Michigan	95.1	95.7	94.5	95.1
Eastern Michigan	95.8	94.1	92.7	94.2
Ball St.	91.7	91.5	89.0	90.7
Northern Illinois	87.6	85.8	85.2	86.2
MAC Averages	91.1	90.5	89.5	90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	105.6	105.3	106.3	105.8
Wyoming	97.4	97.9	98.5	97.9
Air Force	97.3	97.5	98.1	97.6
Colorado St.	90.5	90.5	91.1	90.7
Utah St.	89.7	90.6	89.4	89.9
New Mexico	83.7	84.0	82.4	83.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	102.0	101.5	101.6	101.7
Fresno St.	99.5	101.2	102.0	100.9
Nevada	98.6	100.0	98.7	99.1
San Jose St.	98.3	98.3	96.7	97.8
Hawaii	93.4	92.8	93.0	93.1
U N L V	85.2	84.1	84.7	84.6
MWC Averages	95.1	95.3	95.2	95.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	112.2	113.2	114.5	113.3
Oregon St.	111.8	111.8	112.4	112.0
Washington	107.3	108.8	108.9	108.3
Stanford	104.4	105.3	104.3	104.7
California	98.0	102.2	101.0	100.4
Washington St.	97.7	98.4	97.4	97.8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	113.2	113.1	114.5	113.6
Arizona St.	111.8	112.4	112.5	112.2
U C L A	111.3	111.8	112.0	111.7
Utah	110.1	109.9	109.5	109.8
Colorado	101.4	101.0	100.4	100.9
Arizona	91.6	91.1	91.2	91.3
Pac-12 Averages	105.9	106.6	106.5	106.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	131.7	131.7	133.3	132.2
Florida	118.4	120.0	119.4	119.3
Kentucky	106.9	108.6	107.1	107.5
Missouri	106.5	107.2	106.3	106.7
Tennessee	102.8	102.2	102.6	102.6
South Carolina	101.7	101.5	101.2	101.4
Vanderbilt	83.0	82.2	82.0	82.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.9	129.8	131.7	130.8
Ole Miss	117.3	117.4	117.9	117.6
Texas A&M	116.1	116.8	116.3	116.4
Arkansas	115.8	115.9	115.2	115.7
Auburn	115.6	114.4	115.4	115.1
L S U	111.8	112.9	113.2	112.6
Mississippi St.	106.8	106.9	106.3	106.7
SEC Averages	111.8	112.0	112.0	111.9
Sunbelt Conference
East Division	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	110.8	108.3	110.8	110.0
Appalachian St.	102.2	101.8	104.0	102.7
Georgia St.	94.1	93.4	93.7	93.7
Troy	91.2	91.6	91.6	91.4
Georgia Southern	86.1	86.3	85.6	86.0
West Division	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	107.7	105.8	107.8	107.1
South Alabama	91.2	91.3	90.2	90.9
Arkansas St.	86.5	87.5	85.9	86.6
Texas St.	83.9	81.7	81.9	82.5
UL-Monroe	79.0	79.4	77.1	78.5
Sun Averages	93.3	92.7	92.9	92.9

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.9
2	Big 12	109.6
3	Big Ten	108.4
4	Pac-12	106.3
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	97.0
7	Mountain West	95.2
8	Sun Belt	92.9
9	Independents	92.1
10	Mid-American	90.4
11	Conference USA	86.1

Excellent TV Schedule For A 14-Hour Marathon

After a week with a minimum of outstanding TV games, you will have a feast of great games this coming weekend. It will be possible to sit on your sofa in your man cave from Noon Eastern Time until 2 AM Sunday and be presented with excellent football game choices. This is a weekend where you might want to have multiple monitors at the ready. Here are our starred games on the tube.

All Times Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Maryland vs. Iowa

The Terrapins haven’t been 5-0 since 2001, when they won the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship and lost to Florida in the Orange Bowl. Maryland Stadium should be jam-packed as Coach Mike Locksley leads his charges onto the field to face the presumptive Big Ten West favorites in this battle of unbeaten teams. It’s still early, but a Hawkeye win to make Iowa 5-0 could put them on pace to run the table to the Big Ten Championship Game.

TV Info: 8 PM on FS1

Saturday Games

Georgia vs. Arkansas

Georgia’s quick 35-0 first quarter lead over Vanderbilt was achieved almost effortlessly, and Coach Kirby Smart took his starters out after the first quarter. It was like a walk-through practice for their regulars.

Arkansas played a tough 60-minute game against old Southwest Conference rival Texas A&M, knocking off the Aggies in a mild upset to start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2003. If you’re wondering when the last time Arkansas was 5-0, it was 1998. A week from today, that should still be true, but this should be an interesting game to watch to start the day. Beating Vanderbilt 62-0 this year is almost inevitable. Beating Arkansas by three touchdowns or more would justify moving the Bulldogs to number one in the nation. Of course, we did that this week.

TV Info: 12 Noon on ESPN

Wisconsin vs. Michigan

This is a fact-finding tour game for both teams. Can Wisconsin play a game without making multiple mental mistakes, or is this ingrained in their 2021 DNA? The Badgers could possibly be undefeated today if not for those crucial game-crushing mistakes. Was that Graham or Ethel Mertz throwing those touchdown passes to Notre Dame defenders at Soldier Field?

What are we to make of Michigan’s lack of offensive production against Rutgers? The Wolverines were leading the FBS in rushing yardage before the Scarlet Knights shut it down. The Maize and Blue need to control this game and win convincingly if they are really contenders for the Big Ten East title this year.

TV Info: 12 Noon on Fox

Missouri vs. Tennessee

Call this game a bowl qualifier. The winner has a strong path to bowl eligibility, while the loser will need to pull off at least one if not two upsets to get to 6-6. What makes this a much-watch game is that this is the middle of the SEC, and these teams have just enough talent to pull off an upset down the road against a potential Playoff-contender.

TV Info: 12 Noon on SEC Network

TCU vs. Texas

Some of the shine came off this game when TCU fell to Metroplex rival SMU. However, both teams are still undefeated in the Big 12, and the winner becomes the top contender to Oklahoma, who all of a sudden looks quite vulnerable. This should be your typical Southwestern Shootout with up to 90 total points scored, and if Texas wins handily like they did against Texas Tech, the Sooners better take notice before they head to the State Fair the week after.

TV Info: 12 Noon on ABC

Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati

Clemson has played itself out of the Playoff race with two losses. Ohio State will follow the Tigers if they lose another game. Texas A&M and Iowa State couldn’t live up to their preseason hype. If the Playoff Committee has to choose four teams today, Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma would be three of the choices, but choice number four would be wide open between Penn State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Florida. The winner of this game in South Bend is going to be in great shape to run the table. Notre Dame’s remaining schedule looks soft. Cinti has one tough game at home against SMU and a possible rematch in the AAC Championship Game. We pronounce this one to be the top game of the day. Clear your schedule. This game should be close and may not be decided until the closing minutes.

TV Info: 2:30 PM on NBC

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

For the rest of the nation not reading this feature, this will be their game of the week. The top two Heisman Trophy Award contenders will face off in Tuscaloosa. Tide quarterback Bryce Young is being called the best game manager in college football. You want to know another former Alabama quarterback that was an excellent game manager? Bart Starr merely led the Green Bay Packers to five NFL Championships.

Matt Corral is the exciting, dual threat superstar that has given Alabama all of its defeats in the last decade. Ole Miss could score 40 or more points in this game and still lose by double digits. It should be an interesting game, but the Tide has a bit more talent, and Nick Saban owns part of Lane Kiffin’s subconscious.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on CBS

Kansas St. vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma doesn’t look anything like a Playoff contender, as they were lucky to survive at home against a fair but not great West Virginia team. Kansas State laid an egg against an Oklahoma State team that has not been the most dominant 4-0 team.

The loser of this game will most likely lose at least one other conference game, and that will eliminate that team from Playoff contention. Kansas State lost to Arkansas State the week before going to Norman last year and handing the Sooners a loss. The Wildcats have the talent to repeat the upset, especially if the OU offense doesn’t get a tune-up this week in practice.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on Fox

Stanford vs. Oregon

The Ducks earned a lot of Playoff Committee bonus points by winning at Ohio State, but their other games have not been totally impressive. The Pac-12 has so much parity that the also-ran teams have better chances to upset the contenders than in any other Power 5 league. Stanford hasn’t defeated a quality team this year, as USC has now proven to be mediocre at best. The Ducks have had difficulty winning in Palo Alto through the years, and a loss here would kill their chances of making the Playoffs, especially with road games against Washington, UCLA, and Utah still to be played.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on ABC

Rutgers vs. Ohio St.

As John McEnroe might say, “you cannot be serious!” Rutgers playing Ohio State is a key TV game? The Buckeyes might be walking into a garden ambush at SHI Stadium in Piscataway. Rutgers had a chance to win in Ann Arbor, and they stopped a btter running game than Ohio State has this year. Can they also stop a top passing game? It should be interesting and worth watching.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on Big Ten Network

Kentucky vs. Florida

Who will play top contender for the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC East? Kentucky has been improving year by year on the defensive side but has been lacking offensively due to problems passing the ball. Coach Mark Stoops brought Liam Coen to Lexington after running the Los Angeles Rams’ offense. The Wildcats still have a top notch defense, but the passing game is struggling a bit.

In the second half of their game against Alabama, Florida looked like the superior team. A lousy first half did the Gators in. Not having Anthony Richardson to play these last two games have played a little toll on the Gator offense. If Richardson is full strength, Florida should be able to top Kentucky in Lexington. Florida must keep winning every week to make the Georgia game essential. The Gators are still very much in the Playoff race.

TV Info: 6 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma St. vs. Baylor

Who would have predicted that these teams would both be 4-0 when they faced off? Both teams have to be considered Big 12 Championship Game contenders, but the Cowboys are probably a legitimate contender, where the Bears must still prove they are for real. A win here adds to the proof given when they beat Iowa State.

TV Info: 7 PM on ESPN2

Clemson vs. Boston College

It’s obvious by now that Clemson’s offense has suffered too many losses from last year’s team, as many defenses have successfully held that tiger. Boston College survived a 56-yard field goal to pick up a rare ACC win over an SEC team. At 4-0, the Eagles are one of two remaining undefeated teams left in the league (Wake Forest). If BC can win this game and look like it was not a fluke, then at least, the league can pretend to still have a playoff contender.

TV Info: 7:30 PM on ACC Network

Oregon State vs. Washington

Oregon State played one bad quarter against Purdue in the season opener, and that’s why the Beavers are not 4-0 and threatening to make the Pac-12 North a two-team race. Washington lost to Montana in week one and then fell to Michigan in week two. The Huskies still might win the North Division title, but they have no chance to make the Playoffs.

The winner of this game will be tied for first at the minimum and in sole possession of first if Stanford beats Oregon. OSU looked like a serious contender in their pasting of USC in the Coliseum. The last time the Beavers had won at the Coliseum was 1960, when Tommy Prothro was coaching the team, and future Heisman Trophy quarterback Terry Baker was leading it. If Tristan Gebbia can stay healthy, Oregon State just might be the team that Oregon has to worry about.

TV Info: 9 PM on Pac-12 Network

UCLA vs. Arizona St.

This is a battle for first place in the Pac-12 South, but neither team is in contention for a Playoff bid. ASU lost to BYU, while the Bruins lost to Fresno State. At 12-1, neither team would get in against a third place SEC school that is 11-1.

The PiRates begin updating the ratings during the second half of the late Pac-12 game, so we always have the audio up on these games while working through the wee hours of the morning. These games are always exciting and keep us alert. You get your money’s worth with Pac-12 games, even if it no longer really is the “conference of champions.”

TV Info: 10:30 PM on FS1

PiRate Ratings College Football September 12, 2021

Note: We want to thank all our fans that were part of the opening weekend introduction of the PiRate Ratings Pro Football Simulation Tabletop Game. We were overwhelmed by the number of orders you made for the salute to the American Football League.

If you are interested in knowing more about the game, click on the link below.

PiRate Football Game Info

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana	Ohio U	23.3	19.2	22.3
Louisville	Central Florida	0.3	1.1	-0.8
Illinois	Marylalnd	-14.3	-12.2	-11.2
Miami (Fla.)	Michigan St.	10.3	9.4	11.3
Michigan	Northern Illinois	20.3	23.5	24.3
Army	Connecticut	35.7	34.5	38.9
Massachusetts	Eastern Michigan	-15.9	-14.8	-16.5
Temple	Boston College	-22.4	-21.3	-22.0
West Virginia	Virginia Tech	9.7	9.1	8.3
Buffalo	Coastal Carolina	-8.7	-7.0	-9.9
Pittsburgh	Western Michigan	15.8	16.5	17.5
Oklahoma	Nebraska	25.6	22.5	24.0
Indiana	Cincinnati	-3.9	-3.1	-4.3
Texas A&M	New Mexico	35.3	35.9	36.9
Colorado	Minnesota	4.9	3.3	1.4
Wyoming	Ball St.	3.4	4.3	7.7
Kansas St.	Nevada	8.9	7.3	7.4
Notre Dame	Purdue	0.5	2.3	0.8
Clemson	Georgia Tech	26.7	27.1	29.6
Washington St.	USC	-12.8	-11.7	-14.6
Florida	Alabama	-13.3	-10.1	-13.9
Wake Forest	Florida St.	8.7	7.1	8.4
Iowa	Kent St.	26.4	23.9	29.4
Louisiana Tech	SMU	-4.5	-4.9	-7.0
Ohio St.	Tulsa	23.4	23.4	25.6
Kansas	Baylor	-15.1	-17.4	-19.6
Toledo	Colorado St.	16.5	16.3	15.3
Duke	Northwestern	-11.6	-10.3	-12.5
Arkansas	Georgia Southern	30.0	29.2	29.1
Memphis	Mississippi St.	-13.7	-13.3	-11.4
Washington	Arkansas St.	17.5	17.8	20.1
UTSA	Middle Tennessee	14.1	14.9	12.3
Liberty	Old Dominion	35.6	36.3	37.6
Marshall	East Carolina	5.0	6.0	4.4
Southern Miss.	Troy	-10.5	-9.1	-10.2
Texas Tech	Florida Int’l.	26.2	26.2	23.4
Georgia St.	Charlotte	14.2	12.3	12.0
San Diego St.	Utah	-6.1	-6.7	-6.5
Georgia	South Carolina	29.0	29.2	31.7
Penn St.	Auburn	-0.9	1.4	1.7
Air Force	Utah St.	10.3	9.0	11.1
North Carolina	Virginia	14.8	12.8	17.8
LSU	Central Michigan	12.5	14.9	14.8
North Texas	UAB	-8.8	-8.7	-8.9
Vanderbilt	Stanford	-14.2	-16.1	-14.9
Texas	Rice	33.2	31.3	32.0
Ole Miss	Tulane	14.3	15.6	12.6
Boise St.	Oklahoma St.	-2.7	-2.8	-0.9
BYU	Arizona St.	2.1	0.6	2.1
UNLV	Iowa St.	-32.7	-32.2	-33.9
UCLA	Fresno St.	18.1	16.2	15.8
Hawaii	San Jose St.	-3.5	-4.3	-2.2

This week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Kentucky	Chattanooga	30.2
Missouri	SE Missouri	29.4
Tennessee	Tennessee Tech	30.7
Syracuse	Albany	21.5
Rutgers	Delaware	23.5
Miami (O)	Long Island	25.5
Akron	Bryant	9.2
Appalachian St.	Elon	27.7
Oregon St.	Idaho	21.2
California	Sacramento St.	22.3
Bowling Green	Murray St.	5.2
Florida Atlantic	Fordham	27.4
Houston	Grambling	28.8
South Florida	Florida A&M	15.5
Texas St.	Incarnate Word	13.5
Oregon	Stony Brook	32.4
North Carolina St.	Furman	27.1
Louisiana-Monroe	Jackson St.	11.6
South Alabama	Alcorn St.	23.3
New Mexico St.	South Carolina St.	1.5
Arizona	Northern Arizona	16.3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	132.3
2	Georgia	128.5
3	Oklahoma	126.4
4	Clemson	121.7
5	Iowa St.	120.6
6	Ohio St.	119.5
7	Cincinnati	119.2
8	Auburn	118.2
9	Texas A&M	117.8
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Iowa	117.6
12	Florida	116.8
13	Penn St.	116.0
14	U S C	115.7
15	Wisconsin	114.7
16	T C U	114.4
17	Ole Miss	114.0
18	Texas	114.0
19	Oregon	113.5
20	Miami (Fla.)	113.4
21	U C L A	113.0
22	West Virginia	112.9
23	Indiana	112.4
24	Arkansas	112.3
25	Arizona St.	111.7
26	L S U	111.4
27	Utah	110.5
28	BYU	110.3
29	Maryland	109.6
30	Oklahoma St.	109.5
31	Coastal Carolina	109.1
32	Michigan	108.6
33	Purdue	108.6
34	Notre Dame	108.3
35	NC State	108.1
36	Kentucky	108.0
37	Mississippi St.	108.0
38	Louisiana	106.9
39	Virginia Tech	106.9
40	Wake Forest	106.8
41	Liberty	106.8
42	Oregon St.	106.3
43	Missouri	106.2
44	Colorado	106.2
45	Michigan St.	106.1
46	Minnesota	106.0
47	Washington	105.6
48	Virginia	105.6
49	Kansas St.	105.4
50	Nebraska	105.3
51	Stanford	105.1
52	Baylor	104.9
53	Boston College	104.8
54	Boise St.	104.3
55	UCF	104.0
56	Pittsburgh	103.3
57	Texas Tech	102.9
58	Tulane	102.9
59	Appalachian St.	102.8
60	Northwestern	102.5
61	Tennessee	102.4
62	Army	102.1
63	Louisville	101.7
64	South Carolina	101.5
65	Florida St.	101.3
66	Houston	101.2
67	San Diego St.	101.1
68	Nevada	100.6
69	Rutgers	100.4
70	San Jose St.	100.4
71	Central Michigan	100.4
72	Washington St.	99.6
73	California	99.6
74	Fresno St.	99.3
75	Tulsa	98.4
76	Toledo	98.3
77	Miami (Ohio)	97.9
78	Buffalo	97.6
79	Wyoming	97.4
80	SMU	97.2
81	Air Force	97.0
82	U T S A	96.9
83	Georgia Tech	96.8
84	Marshall	96.7
85	Troy	95.4
86	Ball St.	95.3
87	Syracuse	94.9
88	East Carolina	94.6
89	Illinois	94.5
90	U A B	94.2
91	Kent St.	94.0
92	Memphis	93.7
93	Hawaii	93.1
94	Florida Atlantic	92.5
95	Arizona	92.2
96	Georgia St.	91.7
97	South Alabama	91.4
98	Eastern Michigan	91.0
99	Arkansas St.	90.1
100	Utah St.	89.8
101	Western Michigan	89.7
102	Northern Illinois	88.9
103	Louisiana Tech	88.7
104	Duke	88.5
105	Ohio	88.3
106	USF	88.2
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Vanderbilt	87.0
109	Western Kentucky	86.2
110	Middle Tennessee	86.1
111	Georgia Southern	85.9
112	Colorado St.	85.3
113	Rice	84.8
114	New Mexico	84.8
115	U N L V	84.7
116	Navy	84.6
117	Kansas	84.5
118	Southern Miss.	83.4
119	North Texas	82.4
120	Charlotte	80.9
121	Florida Int’l.	80.6
122	Temple	80.4
123	U T E P	76.6
124	UL-Monroe	75.6
125	Akron	75.2
126	UMass	72.8
127	Bowling Green	72.4
128	Old Dominion	72.3
129	New Mexico St.	69.4
130	Connecticut	67.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.0	118.0	120.6	119.2
UCF	103.6	102.5	105.9	104.0
Tulane	102.7	101.4	104.5	102.9
Houston	101.6	100.2	101.9	101.2
Tulsa	98.4	98.6	98.1	98.4
SMU	96.5	97.5	97.6	97.2
East Carolina	94.6	93.7	95.4	94.6
Memphis	92.9	93.5	94.7	93.7
USF	88.6	87.7	88.3	88.2
Navy	85.1	84.3	84.5	84.6
Temple	79.6	81.1	80.4	80.4
AAC Averages	96.6	96.2	97.4	96.8

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.6	121.0	123.3	121.7
NC State	108.6	107.8	108.0	108.1
Wake Forest	107.2	106.0	107.3	106.8
Boston College	104.5	104.9	104.9	104.8
Louisville	101.4	101.0	102.6	101.7
Florida St.	101.0	101.4	101.4	101.3
Syracuse	95.4	95.2	94.2	94.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.7	116.8	119.7	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	113.8	112.5	114.1	113.4
Virginia Tech	107.8	106.4	106.4	106.9
Virginia	104.9	106.9	104.9	105.6
Pittsburgh	102.9	103.9	103.3	103.3
Georgia Tech	96.9	96.9	96.7	96.8
Duke	88.5	89.8	87.3	88.5
ACC Averages	105.0	105.0	105.3	105.1

Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	127.6	125.0	126.5	126.4
Iowa St.	121.1	119.3	121.4	120.6
T C U	114.9	113.6	114.6	114.4
Texas	115.0	113.0	113.9	114.0
West Virginia	114.5	112.6	111.6	112.9
Oklahoma St.	110.0	109.6	108.8	109.5
Kansas St.	105.8	105.8	104.7	105.4
Baylor	105.5	105.1	104.1	104.9
Texas Tech	102.9	103.7	102.1	102.9
Kansas	87.3	84.7	81.6	84.5
Big 12 Averages	110.5	109.2	108.9	109.5

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	118.8	119.0	120.8	119.5
Penn St.	114.7	115.8	117.4	116.0
Indiana	112.0	111.9	113.3	112.4
Maryland	111.0	109.3	108.3	109.6
Michigan	107.8	108.9	109.2	108.6
Michigan St.	106.5	106.1	105.8	106.1
Rutgers	99.4	101.6	100.2	100.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	117.0	116.5	119.4	117.6
Wisconsin	114.1	114.0	116.0	114.7
Purdue	108.4	107.8	109.6	108.6
Minnesota	104.9	106.0	107.3	106.0
Nebraska	105.0	105.5	105.5	105.3
Northwestern	102.6	102.5	102.3	102.5
Illinois	94.2	94.6	94.7	94.5
Big Ten Averages	108.3	108.6	109.3	108.7

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	96.7	96.7	96.9	96.7
Florida Atlantic	91.4	93.3	92.7	92.5
Western Kentucky	85.2	87.0	86.4	86.2
Middle Tennessee	85.7	85.5	87.1	86.1
Charlotte	80.1	81.1	81.5	80.9
Florida Int’l.	79.7	80.5	81.7	80.6
Old Dominion	72.0	72.6	72.2	72.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	96.8	97.4	96.5	96.9
U A B	94.5	94.2	93.9	94.2
Louisiana Tech	89.0	89.6	87.6	88.7
Rice	84.8	84.7	84.9	84.8
Southern Miss.	82.6	84.2	83.4	83.4
North Texas	82.7	82.4	82.0	82.4
U T E P	77.0	77.7	75.1	76.6
CUSA Averages	85.6	86.2	85.9	85.9

FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
BYU	110.2	109.5	111.1	110.3
Notre Dame	107.4	108.6	108.9	108.3
Liberty	105.6	106.9	107.8	106.8
Army	102.0	102.0	102.3	102.1
UMass	74.2	73.6	70.6	72.8
New Mexico St.	69.8	70.6	67.8	69.4
Connecticut	68.3	69.5	65.4	67.7
Indep. Averages	91.1	91.5	90.6	91.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	99.7	97.4	96.6	97.9
Buffalo	98.2	97.2	97.4	97.6
Kent St.	93.6	95.5	93.0	94.0
Ohio	87.2	89.1	88.5	88.3
Akron	77.0	75.0	73.6	75.2
Bowling Green	73.0	73.4	70.9	72.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	101.1	99.8	100.2	100.4
Toledo	98.8	98.4	97.7	98.3
Ball St.	96.2	96.1	93.6	95.3
Eastern Michigan	92.7	90.9	89.5	91.0
Western Michigan	90.0	90.3	88.8	89.7
Northern Illinois	90.4	88.5	87.9	88.9
MAC Averages	91.5	91.0	89.8	90.8

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	104.3	103.8	104.8	104.3
Wyoming	96.7	97.3	98.3	97.4
Air Force	96.8	96.7	97.4	97.0
Utah St.	89.5	90.6	89.3	89.8
Colorado St.	85.3	85.1	85.4	85.3
New Mexico	85.0	85.3	84.0	84.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	101.5	100.9	100.9	101.1
Nevada	99.9	101.5	100.3	100.6
San Jose St.	100.9	101.0	99.4	100.4
Fresno St.	97.6	99.7	100.6	99.3
Hawaii	93.4	92.7	93.1	93.1
U N L V	85.5	84.2	84.6	84.7
MWC Averages	94.7	94.9	94.8	94.8

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	112.1	113.4	115.0	113.5
Oregon St.	106.2	106.1	106.5	106.3
Washington	104.6	105.9	106.3	105.6
Stanford	104.8	105.9	104.6	105.1
Washington St.	99.5	100.3	99.1	99.6
California	97.2	101.5	100.1	99.6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	115.2	115.0	116.7	115.7
U C L A	112.7	112.9	113.3	113.0
Arizona St.	111.1	112.0	112.0	111.7
Utah	110.6	110.6	110.4	110.5
Colorado	106.7	106.3	105.6	106.2
Arizona	92.8	92.0	91.8	92.2
Pac-12 Averages	106.1	106.8	106.8	106.6

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	127.9	127.9	129.9	128.5
Florida	116.0	117.9	116.6	116.8
Kentucky	107.4	109.2	107.5	108.0
Missouri	106.1	106.8	105.8	106.2
Tennessee	102.6	101.9	102.6	102.4
South Carolina	101.9	101.6	101.2	101.5
Vanderbilt	87.6	86.8	86.7	87.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	132.4	131.0	133.5	132.3
Auburn	118.6	117.4	118.7	118.2
Texas A&M	117.3	118.2	117.9	117.8
Ole Miss	113.9	114.0	114.1	114.0
Arkansas	112.8	112.5	111.5	112.3
L S U	110.5	111.7	112.0	111.4
Mississippi St.	108.1	108.3	107.5	108.0
SEC Averages	111.7	111.8	111.8	111.8

Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.8	107.1	110.3	109.1
Appalachian St.	102.2	101.9	104.4	102.8
Troy	95.1	95.4	95.7	95.4
Georgia St.	92.3	91.4	91.5	91.7
Georgia Southern	85.9	86.4	85.4	85.9
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	107.6	105.3	107.9	106.9
South Alabama	91.7	91.8	90.7	91.4
Arkansas St.	90.1	91.1	89.2	90.1
Texas St.	89.1	86.9	87.4	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.2	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.0	93.4	93.6	93.7

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.8
2	Big 12	109.5
3	Big Ten	108.7
4	Pac-12	106.6
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Mountain West	94.8
8	Sun Belt	93.7
9	Independents	91.1
10	Mid-American	90.8
11	Conference USA	85.9

Saturday’s TV Games of Interest

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 Noon

Indiana vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats could pick up some much needed schedule strength with a road win against the Hoosiers, although Indiana’s big loss to Iowa may not make a CU win all that influential to the Selection Committee down the road. As of this publication, it has not been decided if this will be the ABC or ESPN game.

Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina: Why do we call this important? Coastal Carolina has a chance to run the table for a second consecutive regular season, and this figures to possibly be their second toughest game on their schedule. If the Chanticleers win this one on the road, then possible a road game against Appalachian State on October 20 will be all that stands in CCU’s way of going 12-0 and competing for a NY6 Bowl. This game will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska: We don’t expect an exciting game in this one, but it marks a very important 50th anniversary. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, the number one Cornhuskers visited Norman to face the number two Sooners in the “Game of the Century.” We believe it was the game of the second half of the century, as the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game at Yankee Stadium was just as big.

On that great day 50 years ago, the lead changed hands three times with Nebraska tailback Jeff Kinney diving into the end zone late in the fourth quarter to give the ‘Huskers the 35-31 win. Oklahoma went on to the Sugar Bowl and destroyed a 9-1 Auburn team that had Heisman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan at quarterback. The final score was 40-22, but it was 40-6 before Coach Chuck Fairbanks emptied his bench.

Nebraska met undefeated Alabama in the Orange Bowl for the national title. The game was a blowout by halftime, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 win. Nebraska finished first in the polls, and Oklahoma finished #2. Colorado, which only lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma edged Alabama for #3, while the Tide fell to #4. This was the only time in history that the #1 team beat the #’s 2, 3, and 4 teams in a season.

As for this year’s game, Oklahoma should win by a lopsided score, but maybe Nebraska will play its best game under Coach Scott Frost and make it interesting. Catch this game on Fox.

West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies look strong enough defensively to compete with all their ACC brethren, while West Virginia is a work in progress under second year coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers are a different team at Mountaineer Field than they are on the road. This should be a stern test for Justin Fuente’s squad. This one airs on FS1.

3:30 PM

Florida vs. Alabama: Florida might have a bit of a quarterback controversy between starter Emory Jones and exciting backup Anthony Richardson. Jones tossed two interceptions against South Florida’s defense. Richardson ran for 115 yards and a touchdown on just four carries, and he was three for three for 152 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Alabama has no controversies. The Tide look unstoppable with what should be a rebuilding year. Can they manhandle the Gators in Gainesville? A 20+ – point win looks highly possible. This game is CBS’s first SEC game of the season.

7:30 PM

Penn St. vs. Auburn: This is Bryan Harsin’s first test as Auburn’s head coach. Penn State is not all the way back as a power, but playing them at Happy Valley is quite difficult. Expect a potentially lower scoring game, but it should be highly competitive and worth watching. It’s the ABC prime time game.

10:15 PM

BYU vs. Arizona St.: After dominating Utah Saturday night, this BYU team looks just as tough or even tougher in 2021 than it looked in 2020 with an All-American quarterback now starting for the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Arizona State has quietly started 2-0 with two creampuffs.

The Sun Devils have withstood some major accusations with potential illegal recruiting, so bad, that an insider has claimed that an incredible tell-all book about the transgressions would be a bestseller.

This figures to be ASU’s last chance for multiple seasons to make hay before their sun sets with numerous punishments, that is if the NCAA has any investigators remaining. This game airs on ESPN.

10:45 PM

UCLA vs. Fresno St.: After Saturday’s Oregon win at Ohio State, Fresno State’s close loss to the Ducks on September 4 looked a lot more impressive. The Bulldogs won’t be intimidated by the 2-0 Bruins, coming off a big win over LSU plus a week off.

UCLA didn’t need the week off after beating LSU at the Rose Bowl, but the Bruins won’t be hurt by the bye week. This should be an action-packed and exciting game, and Fresno State could still be there in the fourth quarter with a chance to win. Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

Wide Variety In Styles This Year

The up-tempo offenses of the recent decade have some new company with teams going the other way. The hurry-up no huddle teams are still to be found in great numbers. However, some coaches are killing the clock trying to play ball-control and taking all the time off the play clock between plays.

Here’s an exceptional case in point to show the extremes from yesterday. Central Michigan played ball-control yesterday against FCS opponent Robert Morris. They gave RMU just 38 scrimmage plays (30 runs and 8 passes). The total of 119 plays looked like a game from the 1950s. In Madison, WI, Eastern Michigan was also held to 38 plays and 92 total yards against the Badgers in a game that had just 113 total plays. Several additional games were limited to less than 130 scrimmage plays, something that has been a rarity in recent seasons. Troy and Liberty combined for just 114 scrimmage plays.

At the other extreme, Marshall did something rarely done in college football history. They ran 100 plays in their win over UNC Central. They gained 700 yards. Arkansas State just missed 100 with 99 plays; they scored 50 points against Memphis, and they lost! North Texas had 96 plays against SMU and scored just 12 points.

Adjusting Teams Due To The Transfer Portal

The Transfer Portal Giveth And Taketh Away

Like a lord of the gridiron, the new transfer portal has wreaked havoc on the overall landscape of college football.  We have recently completed updating the effect on the PiRate Ratings for all the transfers that have both left a former school and chosen a new destination for 2021.  Among those that have entered the transfer portal, there are a handful of point spread-moving talents that have not officially chosen a new school.  A trio of what we call 15+ talents on a rating scale of 0-20 are leaning to schools but have yet to officially sign.  These players will affect our ratings when they do sign.

The PiRate Ratings adjusted the talent levels of the teams by considering the players entering the Transfer Portal like they were graduating seniors.  As for the entry to a new team, the field had to be taken on a case by case basis.  The players that played 1 to 4 games last year are classified as redshirt players and rated as such.  There are others that redshirted without playing any games last year, and they are rated a little differently than the 1-4 game players.  We take these 0-game players, and if they rate 15 or above in talent, they become the equivalent of a hot freshman expected to contribute immediately, like Trevor Lawrence or Hershel Walker.

For the rest of the group of experienced college players, we consider these as regular talent added at what we consider full strength.  If a defensive end that started for a Power Conference team last year or the year before becomes a starter at a new Power Conference team, the new team is graded like the new player is a returning starter, which is optimal for the team.  If the Power Conference starter moves to a Group of 5 team, there is a bonus score if that player is expected to be the starter.

All transfers are not only rated for their talent, but there is a positional adjustment as well.  The starting QB from a Power 5 team is a little more important than the starting punter.  We use the accepted advanced metric positional hierarchy used in pro football and put our own stamp on it;  the hierarchy goes:

1. Quarterback
2. Top Outside Pass Rusher (DE or OLB)
3. Blind-side Tackle (Left tackle for Right-hand QB)
4. Top Cover Cornerback
5. #1 Wide Receiver
6. Defensive Tackle
7. Running Back
8. #2 Outside Pass Rusher (DE or OLB)
9. Middle/Inside Linebacker
10. Tight End
11. Free Safety
12. Weakside Linebacker (or Nickel Back)
13. Right Tackle (or LT for left-handed QB)
14. #2 Cornerback
15. Right Guard
16. #2 Wide Receiver
17. Center
18. Strong Safety
19. Strongside Linebacker
20. Left Guard
21. Nose Tackle
22. #3 Wide Receiver
23. Kicker
24. Punter
25. Return Specialist

It isn’t exactly cut and dry, as we have to analyze each team to see if their style of play is a pro-style.  For teams that run the option, either from the spread or with a QB under center, the positional adjustment is a bit different.  What it adds up to is a lot of extra work, but without this work, the preseason power ratings would be too inaccurate to be useful.  

Let’s look at an example of a couple of teams that have seen their historical preseason power rating altered by the Transfer Portal.  

The Auburn Tigers have a new coaching staff with Bryan Harsin coming in from Boise State.  Harsin hired two gems as his coordinators, both with extensive SEC experience.  Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo and Defensive Coordinator Derek Mason are like having two extra head coaches on staff, and this generates a movement in the preseason rating.  But, we must also count the positives that former head coach Gus Malzahn and Kevin Steele brought to Auburn and make a coaching adjustment score from the January Citrus Bowl to the start of this season.  

Now, take a look at the key transfers for Auburn as the 2021 season nears.  Wide receiver Hal Presley left for Baylor.  He’s a redshirt freshman who played 0 games last year.  

Big Cat Bryant had three QB sacks, an interception, a couple of QB hurries, and 17 tackles at his defensive tackle position.  His leaving to join Malzahn at Central Florida is a bigger loss than Presley as it applies to week 1 of the 2021 season.  

Daquan Newkirk is a senior for the second year and put up similar numbers to Bryant, while being able to play both defensive tackle and defensive end.  His loss to SEC rival Florida hurts the Tigers a tad more.  

Running back D.J. Williams was only Auburn’s third option last year, but he has some worth.  If you follow the game rabidly like we do, you might remember Williams putting a hurt on #1 LSU two years ago, as his 150+ total yards led to Auburn almost knocking off the eventual national champion.  Florida State will get more out of him than Auburn would this year.

Safety Chris Thompson, Jr. was a freshman who saw action in enough games to be considered a sophomore in experience, but he will still be a freshman at his new school, USC.  Thompson rates as a 16 on our talent scale, so he counts like adding a Trevor Lawrence or Hershel Walker freshman to the Trojans.

These five players are the five that can actually move a team’s rating by more than 0.3 points, and together, the quintet reduces Auburn’s overall positional-adjusted talent score by 177 basis points.

Now let’s look at the key players that Auburn gained through the Portal.  We count seven players as being talented enough to improve the War Eagles’ point spread by 0.3 or more points.

They picked up a talented all-star safety from FCS Southeast Missouri in Bydarrius Knighten, who has NFL potential and needs to showcase his talents on the big stage.

Knighten will be joined by a former SEC starting safety in Vanderbilt’s Donovan Kaufman.  Kaufman played just two games in 2020 before a medical issue forced the freshman’s season to end.  He reunites with his former coach and should compete for a starting job at safety and as a return specialist.  Having two safeties with this amount of talent come on board awards a little bonus for the defensive backfield.

We aren’t done with the secondary just yet.  The best transfer of the defensive backfield is former West Virginia starting cornerback Dreshun Miller, a graduate 5th year player.  He started multiple games inside Big 12 play as well as having an excellent career at Eastern Arizona Junior College.

Staying on the defensive side, Auburn adds Kansas defensive end Marcus Harris.  Harris started multiple games for the Jayhawks last year and in 8 games, he had 7 ½ tackles for loss.  

Now, on the offensive side of the ball, there are a lot of specialized calculations to make because Auburn picked up a quarterback with starting experience in the SEC.  T.J. Finley comes to the Plains from LSU, where he started after Myles Brennan was lost for the year.  However, Auburn still has two-year regular Bo Nix as their expected starter just before August practices commence.  There should be a heated race for the starting job in the Bobo offense, but Nix will most likely be taking the snaps when Auburn hosts Akron on September 4.  Finley’s contribution might be limited, but on the other hand, if he wins the battle to start, he might be the most significant addition to the team.  It leaves us having to consider many possibilities before arriving at a score for Finley.

Redshirt freshman Jordan Ingram returns to the state where he was a star running back in high school after not seeing action at Central Michigan last year.  Ingram is not expected to see a great deal of action with Auburn’s top two running backs returning, but he’s talented enough to make a positive contribution.

Finally, there is journeyman wide receiver Demetris Robertson.  He’s the most difficult player in the entire Portal to grade.  Starting from the beginning, Robertson was a 5-star recruit and the top receiver in his recruiting class when he committed to Alabama as a highschool senior.  He ended up signing with California and shredded the Pac-12 as a true freshman.  He suffered an injury as a sophomore and played in just two games.  He then transferred to Georgia, where he was somewhat of a disappointment the last two seasons.  He was expected to be a fourth receiver for the Bulldogs before transferring to Auburn two weeks ago.  There’s another big issue though; he’s facing multiple felony charges, which may be why he entered the Portal near the deadline, because University of Georgia rules may have forced his ineligibility.  If Robertson can play a full season for Auburn, he will contribute to the Bobo offense.  But, he may never get a chance to play a game!  That’s a large subset of possibilities to calculate into the preseason equation.

All told, the incoming players on Auburn’s Transfer Portal list sum to 258 basis points with the defensive backfield bonus included.  Factor in the loss of 177 basis points from the players transferring out, and you get a surplus of 81 basis points improvement through the transfer portal.  Using our talent algorithm, Auburn expects to gain 4.1 power rating points in this area. 

For example number two, let’s inspect Oklahoma without delving into all the plot twists we showed you with Auburn.

Oklahoma lost seven players that will negatively affect their talent score by enough points to matter.  Additionally, at two positions, they lost multiple players to the Portal.  Safety Brendan Radley-Hiles had 115 career tackles in his time in Norman, while hybrid safety/linebacker Robert Barnes took four years of experience to Colorado.  Wide Receiver Jalin Conyers did not play as a freshman but he has NFL potential at Wide Receiver or Tight End and might eventually cost Oklahoma more down the road than they will in September of this year.  Losing wide receiver Charleston Rambo will hurt the Sooners in week one. Not affecting Oklahoma at all for 2021 is former tight end Grant Calcaterra, who retired from football at the end of 2019 after multiple concussions, but he un-retired and transferred to Auburn before the coaching change saw him transfer again to SMU.

The Sooners lost a 4-star tackle to Louisiana-Monroe in Stacey Wilkins.  Wilkins has not played for the Sooners, and his loss will be felt down the road, but it will be just the minimum to matter in 2021.  

Finally, there is quarterback Tanner Mordecai.  The fourth year sophomore was going to be a spectator watching All-American Spencer Rattler lead the Sooners, so Mordecai joined Calcaterra at SMU.  This has potential to affect Oklahoma should Rattler suffer an injury.  The #2 QB at a passing school is as important as the #2, #3, and #4 running backs at a running school.

The total loss in basis points for Oklahoma is 272, which is enough to affect the outcome of a game or two before we look at who the Sooners picked up.  The five players that transferred into Norman are the best quintet in the nation.  Former Tennessee running back Eric Gray and former LSU running back Kevontre Bradford, who has speed in the Chris Johnson CJ2K range, gives the Sooners a national top five running back corps when you add former starter Kennedy Brooks.  The Sooners’ running game combined with Rattler’s passing ability into a possible 45-points per game offense.

There is one more offensive stalwart to add to the mix, as former 5-star tackle recruit Wanya Morris started for two years at Tennessee and should step in and start at the all-important blind-side tackle.  Oklahoma’s potential to average 45 ppg may also come with consistency.

The defense added safety Key Lawrence, the third former Tennessee Vol to matriculate to Oklahoma.  Lawrence saw considerable action on defense and special teams as a true freshman last year.  He will do so for Oklahoma in 2021.

All told, the Sooners gain 200 basis points from incoming transfers, and combining it with the 272 lost, the net change is -72 basis points on transfers alone.  This equals about 3.9 points lost in power rating.

Some of the teams expected to profit the most off the Transfer portal in 2021 include: Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, Miami (Fla.), Penn State, SMU, South Carolina, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC,   Teams that lost considerable talent include: Clemson, Florida State, LSU, Memphis, Tennessee, and Texas.

This adjustment makes up just one part of a multiple part adjustment to the power ratings for each of the 130 FBS teams.  In the case of Clemson losing 245 basis points of talent, fear not for the Tigers.  They still have more than enough talent and added enough from past recruiting classes to make it back to the College Football Playoffs in 2021-2022.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
La Salle	Saint Joseph’s	0.6
George Washington	Fordham	4.3
Tulane	Wichita St.	-4.5
Syracuse	Clemson	0.8
Notre Dame	NC St.	2.4
Florida St.	Boston College	14.9
Seton Hall	Connecticut	0.2
St. John’s	Providence	2.6
Villanova	Creighton	1.6
Eastern Washington	Idaho St.	13.7
Penn St.	Minnesota	3.1
Northwestern	Maryland	-2.6
North Carolina A&T	South Carolina St.	12.0
North Carolina Central	Florida A&M	0.4
Colorado St.	New Mexico	18.8
UNLV	San Diego St.	-12.3
Wagner	Merrimack	6.1
Belmont	SIU Edwardsville	16.4
Morehead St.	Southeast Missouri St.	8.7
Utah	Oregon St.	3.8
Oregon	UCLA	2.4
USC	Stanford	7.7
Boston U	Lehigh	7.2
Florida	Missouri	4.9
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	-3.7
Sam Houston St.	Texas A&M-CC	14.7
New Orleans	Northwestern St.	3.0
Houston Baptist	Incarnate Word	0.4
Central Arkansas	Southeast Louisiana	1.5
Stephen F. Austin	Abilene Christian	-3.1

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Friday, February 26, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
St. Bonaventure	George Washington	15.2
Saint Louis	Richmond	2.2
Cincinnati	Tulane	5.3
Stetson	North Florida	4.6
Kennesaw St.	Florida Gulf Coast	-7.7
Northern Arizona	Southern Utah	-7.2
Idaho	Montana St.	-13.0
Penn St.	Purdue	0.3
Cal Poly	UC Davis	-7.1
UC Irvine	UC San Diego	9.8
Cal St. Bakersfield	Cal St. Northridge	10.8
UC Riverside	UCSB	-2.3
Hawaii	Long Beach State	7.3
James Madison	Drexel	1.9
Marshall	North Texas	3.5
Old Dominion	Middle Tennessee	9.6
UTSA	UAB	-3.9
Louisiana Tech	Rice	9.1
Southern Miss	Florida Atlantic	-0.2
Siena	Manhattan	10.7
Saint Peter’s	Rider	10.5
Akron	Bowling Green	4.1
Bradley	Drake	-7.0
Evansville	Missouri St.	-7.2
Valparaiso	Indiana St.	-3.6
Loyola (Chi.)	Southern Illinois	21.3
Illinois St.	Northern Iowa	1.4
Utah St.	Nevada	6.8
UNLV	Fresno St.	4.8
Central Connecticut	Wagner	-9.5
Bryant	Long Island University	8.2
Merrimack	St. Francis (NY)	2.8
Sacred Heart	Fairleigh Dickinson	0.9
Texas St.	UL Monroe	10.1
Georgia Southern	Appalachian St.	-0.9
UT Arlington	Arkansas St.	2.1
Troy	Coastal Carolina	-5.6
Little Rock	Louisiana	0.1
South Alabama	Georgia St.	-1.9
Denver	Omaha	-1.6
South Dakota St.	UM Kansas City	8.7
Utah Valley	UT Rio Grande Valley	1.1
Tarleton	New Mexico St.	-6.4
Seattle	Grand Canyon	-6.5

Coming Later Friday: Updated Bracketology. There was considerable movement in the field of 68 since our Monday update. Teams like Duke, Michigan St., and North Carolina St. are making late pushes to sneak into the field. The first conference tournament began last night, and more tourneys will commence in the next few days, as March Madness lite begins Monday.

The PiRates will be heading down to the galley to make a big bowl of stew and start crunching the numbers that will become Bracketnomics 2021. The recipe has changed–for the Bracketnomics, not the stew.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
George Washington	Rhode Island	-8.7
St. Bonaventure	Davidson	4.1
Houston	Cincinnati	13.0
Temple	South Florida	1.1
Xavier	Butler	9.1
Ohio St.	Michigan	0.7
Rutgers	Maryland	0.1
Iowa	Penn St.	11.0
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-3.8
Drake	Evansville	15.7
Southern Illinois	Valparaiso	0.3
San Jose St.	UNLV	-9.2
Wagner	St. Francis (Pa)	6.6
Colgate	Boston U	14.1
American	Navy	-3.0

Note: Big Announcement Coming Later Today!

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 14, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Cincinnati	Central Florida	3.5
South Florida	Tulane	5.1
SMU	Wichita St.	4.9
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	3.5
Notre Dame	Miami (Fla.)	8.0
Seton Hall	Marquette	7.3
Wisconsin	Michigan	-2.5
Penn St.	Nebraska	10.9
Maryland	Minnesota	0.1
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	5.1

Update College Football TV Schedule For November 14, 2020

Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	ABC	Michigan St.	Indiana
12:00 PM	FOX	West Virginia	TCU
12:00 PM	ESPN2	Tulane	Army
12:00 PM	ESPN	Virginia Tech	Miami (Fla.)
12:00 PM	FS1	Nebraska	Penn St.
12:00 PM	CBSSN	Marshall	Middle Tenn.
12:00 PM	SECN	Kentucky	Vanderbilt
12:00 PM	ACCN	North Carolina	Wake Forest
1:00 PM	BTN	Rutgers	Illinois
3:30 PM	ABC	Boston College	Notre Dame
3:30 PM	ESPN	Stanford	Colorado
3:30 PM	ESPN2	Houston	S. Florida
3:30 PM	FOX	Arizona	USC
3:30 PM	CBSSN	Western Ky.	Southern Miss.
3:30 PM	ACCN	Virginia	Louisville
4:00 PM	FS1	Texas Tech	Baylor
5:00 PM	BTN	Purdue	Northwestern
7:00 PM	FOX	Washington St.	Oregon
7:00 PM	ESPN	Florida	Arkansas
7:00 PM	ESPN2	Tulsa	SMU
7:30 PM	ABC	Michigan	Wisconsin
7:30 PM	ESPNU	Central Florida	Temple
7:30 PM	SECN	Ole Miss	South Carolina
7:30 PM	ACCN	NC St.	Florida St.
11:00 PM	FS1	Washington	Oregon St.