The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 23, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 5

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:18 pm

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday September 27
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (Fla.) North Carolina 18.6 18.2 19.1

 

Friday September 28
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tulane Memphis -7.4 -9.6 -9.0
Colorado UCLA 8.0 9.7 12.2

 

Saturday September 29
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Army 2.8 4.8 4.3
Connecticut Cincinnati -13.1 -14.6 -14.7
Michigan St. Central Michigan 40.2 35.2 39.4
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 0.9 1.6 2.1
Ball St. Kent St. 3.5 4.9 3.3
Wake Forest Rice 39.5 34.0 38.3
East Carolina Old Dominion 5.3 1.1 5.3
Georgia Tech Bowling Green 28.6 27.3 27.8
Boston College Temple 20.7 17.8 20.0
Clemson Syracuse 24.2 22.8 25.9
Appalachian St. South Alabama 16.5 15.9 16.8
Duke Virginia Tech 6.6 4.7 6.3
Georgia St. UL-Monroe -8.1 -5.2 -7.9
Ohio U Massachusetts 13.2 12.1 12.3
Central Florida Pittsburgh 14.1 14.5 15.1
Kentucky South Carolina 2.2 2.0 2.1
North Carolina St. Virginia 12.8 12.0 13.4
Rutgers Indiana -9.2 -9.3 -11.0
Air Force Nevada 6.5 7.0 6.7
Washington St. Utah 0.7 1.4 -1.3
Arizona St. Oregon St. 24.8 25.8 26.3
Washington BYU 26.1 23.1 27.3
Fresno St. Toledo 16.0 12.7 15.8
Miami (O) Western Michigan -1.3 -1.4 0.3
Louisville Florida St. -4.9 -4.1 -5.2
Penn St. Ohio St. -2.6 -3.2 -2.9
Georgia Southern Arkansas St. -0.4 -0.4 -2.0
Georgia Tennessee 39.3 35.0 41.7
New Mexico Liberty 11.6 15.0 11.9
Auburn Southern Miss. 41.8 37.3 43.5
TCU Iowa St. 6.3 7.0 5.6
Alabama Louisiana 63.2 59.2 64.1
Oklahoma Baylor 18.7 19.4 19.8
UTSA UTEP 12.3 13.7 13.8
Nebraska Purdue -9.5 -9.3 -11.5
Kansas St. Texas -6.4 -6.4 -6.9
Texas Tech West Virginia -1.9 -2.5 -2.9
North Texas Louisiana Tech 13.6 13.8 13.4
UAB Charlotte 17.0 17.0 17.1
Kansas Oklahoma St. -10.3 -9.6 -12.7
Western Kentucky Marshall -8.4 -7.8 -8.3
Mississippi St. Florida 11.2 10.4 11.1
LSU Ole Miss 13.3 13.8 13.9
Troy Coastal Carolina 14.8 13.0 15.8
Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic -6.5 -5.6 -6.0
Arizona USC -3.6 -3.4 -2.5
Wyoming Boise St. -14.0 -13.3 -14.7
San Jose St. Hawaii 1.6 0.1 1.0
Notre Dame Stanford 4.4 3.5 2.2
Northwestern Michigan -12.4 -13.2 -13.1
Texas A&M Arkansas 17.6 19.0 19.7
California Oregon 1.6 -1.5 0.6

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 27.9
SMU Houston Baptist 34.0
Florida Int’l. Ark.-Pine Bluff 43.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9
2 Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1
3 Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6
4 Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0
5 Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3
6 Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1
7 Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1
8 Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8
9 Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5
10 Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0
11 Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8
12 Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7
13 Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2
14 Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
15 Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8
16 Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0
17 Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6
18 Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3
19 L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1
20 Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9
21 Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7
22 S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5
23 N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5
24 West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4
25 Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2
26 Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6
27 Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2
28 T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2
29 Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1
30 Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9
31 Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9
32 Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8
33 Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4
34 Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1
35 Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7
36 Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9
37 Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7
38 California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6
39 Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4
40 Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3
41 U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0
42 Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9
43 Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7
44 Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7
45 Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6
46 N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7
47 Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7
48 Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2
49 Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7
50 Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3
51 Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8
52 Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7
53 Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4
54 Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2
55 Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9
56 Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9
57 BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8
58 Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4
59 Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3
60 Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9
61 Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7
62 Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9
63 Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4
64 N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2
65 San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9
66 Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1
67 Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9
68 South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6
69 Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5
70 Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4
71 Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4
72 Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1
73 Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1
74 Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9
75 Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7
76 Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4
77 Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0
78 Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8
79 Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4
80 U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4
81 Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2
82 Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2
83 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0
84 Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3
85 Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1
86 Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9
87 Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5
88 Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4
89 Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0
90 Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9
91 Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2
92 Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2
93 SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2
94 Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0
95 Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7
96 U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3
97 Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3
98 U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9
99 Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9
100 Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7
101 Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6
102 New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8
103 Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1
104 Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8
105 UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4
106 East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2
107 Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2
108 W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1
109 Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1
110 Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8
111 Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8
112 Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0
113 South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0
114 Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9
115 Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3
116 Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1
117 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
118 Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7
119 Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7
120 U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5
121 Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8
122 Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5
123 San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4
124 Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3
125 Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8
126 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5
127 Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4
128 Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0
129 Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0
130 U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.1 113.1 113.4 113.2 1-0 3-0
South Florida 97.9 100.0 97.9 98.6 1-0 4-0
Temple 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.1 1-0 2-2
Cincinnati 93.3 95.0 93.6 93.9 0-0 4-0
East Carolina 86.3 86.1 86.1 86.2 0-1 1-2
Connecticut 77.7 77.9 76.4 77.3 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.6 105.8 104.7 104.7 0-1 3-1
Houston 102.6 103.4 102.8 102.9 0-0 3-1
Navy 95.3 97.8 94.9 96.0 1-1 2-2
Tulane 93.2 93.2 92.7 93.0 0-0 1-3
SMU 91.7 91.1 90.7 91.2 1-0 1-3
Tulsa 90.6 89.4 90.9 90.3 0-1 1-3
AAC Averages 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 130.3 127.5 131.1 129.6 1-0 4-0
Boston College 115.6 112.7 115.5 114.6 1-0 3-1
N. Carolina St. 113.7 113.3 113.4 113.5 0-0 3-0
Syracuse 109.1 107.7 108.2 108.3 1-0 4-0
Florida St. 106.1 105.4 105.6 105.7 0-2 2-2
Wake Forest 106.9 104.4 104.4 105.2 0-1 2-2
Louisville 98.2 98.2 97.4 97.9 0-1 2-2
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 116.3 114.9 116.1 115.8 0-0 3-1
Duke 115.9 113.5 115.5 115.0 0-0 4-0
Virginia Tech 112.3 111.8 112.2 112.1 1-0 2-1
Georgia Tech 108.3 107.0 107.6 107.7 0-2 1-3
Virginia 103.9 104.4 103.0 103.8 1-0 3-1
Pittsburgh 102.0 101.6 101.3 101.7 1-1 2-2
N. Carolina 100.7 99.7 100.0 100.2 1-0 1-2
ACC Averages 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 119.4 118.1 120.0 119.2 1-0 4-0
West Virginia 113.8 113.0 113.4 113.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 112.8 110.9 113.1 112.2 0-1 3-1
T C U 113.0 112.0 111.8 112.2 0-1 2-2
Texas 112.6 111.2 112.0 111.9 1-0 3-1
Iowa State 109.7 107.9 109.1 108.9 0-1 1-2
Texas Tech 108.8 107.4 107.5 107.9 1-0 3-1
Baylor 103.7 101.7 103.2 102.9 1-0 3-1
Kansas St. 103.2 101.8 102.0 102.3 0-1 2-2
Kansas 99.5 98.2 97.4 98.4 0-1 2-2
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 129.5 127.3 130.2 129.0 1-0 4-0
Michigan 124.4 123.2 124.9 124.1 1-0 3-1
Penn St. 123.8 121.1 124.3 123.1 1-0 4-0
Michigan St. 122.3 120.1 121.9 121.5 1-0 2-1
Maryland 104.5 103.1 103.6 103.7 1-0 3-1
Indiana 99.4 98.7 99.2 99.1 0-1 3-1
Rutgers 87.7 86.8 85.8 86.8 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 1-0 3-1
Iowa 112.9 110.4 112.1 111.8 0-1 3-1
Northwestern 109.4 107.5 109.2 108.7 1-0 1-2
Purdue 107.3 105.6 106.9 106.6 0-1 1-3
Minnesota 103.4 102.9 103.3 103.2 0-1 3-1
Nebraska 94.8 93.3 92.4 93.5 0-1 0-3
Illinois 91.6 91.3 90.6 91.2 0-1 2-2
Big Ten Averages 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.2 98.5 98.7 98.5 0-0 2-2
Marshall 94.5 97.2 95.6 95.8 0-0 2-1
Florida Int’l. 89.1 93.2 89.9 90.7 1-0 2-2
Middle Tennessee 89.2 90.4 90.1 89.9 0-0 1-2
W. Kentucky 83.7 86.9 84.8 85.1 0-0 1-3
Old Dominion 83.5 87.5 83.3 84.8 0-2 1-3
Charlotte 74.6 76.9 74.7 75.4 1-0 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 104.6 107.1 105.6 105.7 0-0 4-0
Louisiana Tech 94.0 96.3 95.3 95.2 0-0 2-1
U A B 89.1 91.3 89.3 89.9 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.7 85.9 83.2 84.0 1-0 2-1
U T S A 78.8 83.1 79.4 80.5 0-0 1-3
Rice 70.4 73.4 69.1 71.0 0-1 1-3
U T E P 68.5 71.5 67.7 69.2 0-0 0-4
CUSA Averages 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.7 118.3 120.2 120.0 x 4-0
BYU 102.4 103.0 103.1 102.8 x 3-1
Army 98.8 99.2 98.7 98.9 x 2-2
Massachusetts 83.6 85.8 85.0 84.8 x 2-3
Liberty 79.0 77.5 79.0 78.5 x 1-2
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.8 75.5 x 1-4
Indep. Averages 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 99.2 101.5 100.5 100.4 1-0 4-0
Akron 94.7 95.9 95.0 95.2 0-0 2-1
Ohio U 93.8 94.9 94.3 94.3 0-0 1-2
Miami (O) 88.1 89.9 90.7 89.6 1-0 1-3
Bowling Green 82.2 82.3 82.3 82.3 0-1 1-3
Kent St. 80.5 81.5 80.1 80.7 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 97.8 99.5 97.9 98.4 0-0 2-1
Northern Illinois 95.0 95.5 94.6 95.0 1-0 1-3
Eastern Michigan 93.3 94.7 94.2 94.1 0-1 2-2
Western Michigan 91.9 93.7 92.9 92.9 0-0 2-2
Central Michigan 84.2 86.9 84.6 85.2 0-1 1-3
Ball St. 81.5 83.9 81.0 82.1 0-0 1-3
MAC Averages 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.8 113.0 114.2 113.7 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.4 104.7 104.7 104.3 1-0 3-1
Wyoming 96.8 96.7 96.6 96.7 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.4 93.7 93.2 93.4 0-1 1-2
New Mexico 87.1 89.0 87.4 87.8 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 82.7 83.5 82.6 82.9 0-1 1-4
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.3 108.6 110.2 109.7 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 99.5 99.9 100.4 99.9 0-0 3-1
U N L V 89.7 91.2 90.1 90.3 0-0 2-2
Nevada 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.7 0-0 2-2
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 4-1
San Jose St. 78.7 79.5 76.9 78.4 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 125.5 123.1 127.4 125.3 2-0 3-1
Stanford 120.3 117.8 120.9 119.7 2-0 4-0
Oregon 111.1 111.3 111.7 111.4 0-1 3-1
Washington St. 109.1 108.1 108.0 108.4 0-1 3-1
California 109.7 106.9 109.3 108.6 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 86.5 84.1 84.7 85.1 0-1 1-3
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.4 109.6 112.3 111.1 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.1 108.1 108.0 1-1 2-2
Arizona St. 108.3 106.9 108.0 107.7 0-1 2-2
Colorado 101.4 103.0 102.7 102.4 0-0 3-0
Arizona 102.4 100.8 102.6 101.9 1-0 2-2
U C L A 96.5 96.3 93.5 95.4 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 131.9 128.2 133.3 131.1 2-0 4-0
Missouri 114.5 112.9 115.7 114.3 0-1 3-1
S. Carolina 113.9 112.9 113.7 113.5 1-1 2-1
Kentucky 113.1 111.9 112.8 112.6 2-0 4-0
Florida 112.4 110.5 113.0 111.9 1-1 3-1
Vanderbilt 100.7 101.3 100.6 100.9 0-1 2-2
Tennessee 95.6 96.2 94.5 95.4 0-1 2-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.0 136.9 140.9 138.9 2-0 4-0
Auburn 121.5 120.3 123.7 121.8 1-1 3-1
Mississippi St. 120.5 117.8 121.1 119.8 0-1 3-1
L S U 113.7 113.8 114.7 114.1 1-0 4-0
Texas A&M 114.2 113.0 114.6 113.9 0-1 2-2
Ole Miss 103.4 103.1 103.8 103.4 0-1 3-1
Arkansas 99.6 96.9 97.9 98.1 0-1 1-3
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 95.5 97.0 96.8 96.4 0-0 2-1
Troy 91.3 92.5 92.8 92.2 1-0 3-1
Georgia Southern 86.5 87.9 86.8 87.1 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 79.5 82.5 80.1 80.7 1-0 3-1
Georgia St. 75.8 78.2 76.4 76.8 0-0 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.9 91.4 91.8 91.0 0-0 3-1
UL-Monroe 86.3 85.9 86.8 86.4 0-1 2-2
South Alabama 81.9 84.1 82.9 83.0 1-0 1-3
Louisiana 78.8 80.7 79.8 79.8 0-1 1-2
Texas State 71.1 74.3 70.7 72.0 0-1 1-3
Sun Belt Averages 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

 

The Conference Ratings

 

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.0 108.7 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 108.9 108.9
4 BTEN 109.2 107.6 108.7 108.5
5 P-12 107.6 106.2 107.4 107.1
6 AAC 95.3 95.9 95.2 95.5
7 MWC 93.8 94.4 93.8 94.0
8 IND 93.4 93.4 93.5 93.4
9 MAC 90.2 91.7 90.7 90.9
10 CUSA 85.8 88.5 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.7 85.4 84.5 84.5

Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida

2. South Florida

3. North Texas

4. Cincinnati

5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. Southern Miss.
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Arkansas St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Washington St.
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Buffalo Florida Int’l.
Frisco AAC MAC [UNLV] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati UAB
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston North Texas
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis [Army]
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 [Utah] Iowa St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Florida Atlantic Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Wyoming] Marshall
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten [Akron] [BYU]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Virgnia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Tech Maryland
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. LSU
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Indiana Florida
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Georgia Southern
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma Oregon
Belk ACC SEC Duke Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Notre Dame Central Florida
Military AAC ACC Temple Boston College
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina St. Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota California
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Missouri
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa USC
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Syracuse South Carolina
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Stanford Ohio St.
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Wisconsin Mississippi St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Texas A&M
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Penn St.
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Clemson Georgia
Championship Semifinal Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Best TV Games This Week

All Game Times, Eastern Daylight

Games in Red Are Top 3 of the Day

Time Home Team Visitor Network
12:00 PM Clemson Syracuse ABC
12:00 PM Buffalo Army CBSSN
12:00 PM Texas Tech West Virginia ESPN2
12:20 PM North Carolina St. Virginia ACCN
3:30 PM Kansas St. Texas FS1
4:30 PM Northwestern Michigan Fox
6:00 PM Mississippi St. Florida ESPN
6:00 PM Washington St. Utah Pac-12
7:00 PM Duke Virginia Tech ESPN2
7:30 PM Penn St. Ohio St. ABC
7:30 PM Notre Dame Stanford NBC
7:30 PM Kentucky South Carolina SEC
9:15 PM LSU Ole Miss ESPN
10:30 PM Fresno St. Toledo ESPNU
10:30 PM California Oregon FS1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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September 19, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 20-24, 2018

Hooray for once.  The PiRate Ratings official picks last week enjoyed a nice winning record, sending the year to date record into positive territory.  It is a small profit, as the return on investment is just 1.92%, but at least it isn’t a red number.  Better yet, our straight picks against the spread or in the totals have a record of 11-6-1 for the season.  It is the exotic picks that have stunk up the joint.  Thus, we will go with just straight picks this week.

Best of all, out special Land Sharps are just torching the books with their selections.  One of the sharps, Buckeye Michelle, has been insane with her picks the last two weeks, and we have received messages from some of our regular subscribers asking for more information about her.  First of all, we are not in the business of matchmaking, so don’t ask.  And, yes, she is an incredibly beautiful 29-year old football fanatic.

One of you actually revealed to us that you know who Stewed Meat is.  Stewed is a real sharp.  Stewed lives in Nevada, and handicapping is Stewed career.  Stewed has shown us something special this week that many people never get the opportunity to see performed–playing the middle against both sides.  We’ll explain more about this at the end.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Selections Against The Spread

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wisconsin Iowa 3.5 Iowa
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 4.5 Coastal Carolina
North Carolina St. Marshall 4.5 North Carolina St.
Maryland Minnesota 3 Minnesota
Stanford Oregon 1.5 Stanford
West Virginia Kansas St. 17 Kansas St.
Chicago Arizona 7 Arizona
Philadelphia Indianapolis 6 Philadelphia
Green Bay Washington 3 Washington

Now for the Land Sharps.  At the present time, this is how each has done so far.

Buckeye Michelle is 9-1 for 90% against the spread and +$790 a 79% ROI

Cal Gal Tiffy is 9-3 for 75% against the spread and +$570 a 47.5% ROI

Friday Dog 13 is 4-2 for 67% against the spread and +$180 a 30% ROI

Stewed Meat is 6-4 for 60% against the spread and +$160 a 16% ROI

Dean 615 is 3-3 for 50% against the spread and -$30 a -5% ROI

If more than one of our expert pickers agree on picking the same game, it must be a strong pick.  You will notice that a couple of games were selected by multiple sharps this week.  You will also notice that a couple of sharps picked against each other.

If you are just tuning in to this feature, the rules are simple.  The 5 participants can select against the margin or going over or under the total for any FBS college football game.  They can select 3, 5,7, or 9 games each week.  We then select the most favorable spread available at oddshark.com.

Here are the Land Sharps Picks For the Week.

Buckeye Michelle

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Wake Forest +8 vs. Notre Dame

Army +32 vs. Oklahoma

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

 

Cal Gal Tiffy

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

South Carolina -2 vs. Vanderbilt

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

UTSA -7 vs. Texas St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Penn St. -28 vs. Illinois

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

Virginia -5 vs. Louisville

Clemson -16 vs. Georgia Tech

TCU -3 vs. Texas

 

Stewed Meat

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Iowa +3.5 vs. Wisconsin

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

Louisville +5.5 vs. Virginia

 

Dean 615

Notre Dame -7 vs. Wake Forest

Michigan St. -4.5 vs. Indiana

USC -3.5 vs. Washington St.

Texas +3.5 vs. TCU

Nebraska +18 vs. Michigan

 

Special Look At Stewed Meat’s Real Life Strategy

Stewed is an expert at “Middling”.  In order to be able to do this, Stewed gets access to playing the early line and then immediately plays one side of a game in which Stewed believes the line is off and will move in the opposite direction of which Stewed originally played.  Then, when the line moves in the opposite direction, Stewed plays the other side

Let’s look at an example.  Let’s say Alabama opens as a 14.5 point favorite over Auburn, and Stewed likes Auburn at this number.  So Stewed wagers on Auburn at +14.5.  During the week, a lot of other people believe 14.5 points are too much for Alabama, and they bet the spread down to 11.5.  Now, Stewed wagers on Alabama at -11.5.

On the surface, you might think this is nuts.  Stewed will have a slim chance of the game ending up at 12, 13, or 14 points in Alabama’s favor, giving Stewed two wins.  In most cases, Stewed will win one and lose one and lose $10 for every $100 wagered on both sides.

However, if you look at the 11-10 odds and do a little mathematical calculations, Stewed only needs to have the game come in at the middle of the extremes one time out of 19 in order to turn a profit, plus Stewed has a Margin of Safety in place, because the most Stewed can lose is 10% on the dollar wagered.

Earlier this week, Stewed Wagered on the following games that have seen a significant line change and then wagered on the other team once the line moved in the other direction.

SMU +12.5 vs. Navy

Navy -7 vs. SMU

 

Ball St. Pk vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky +3 vs. Ball St.

 

Alabama -23.5 vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M +27 vs. Alabama

 

Auburn -24 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas +30 vs. Auburn

If just one of these four games come in with the spread in the middle, Stewed will turn a nice profit.

September 16, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday, September 20
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Temple Tulsa 8.4 9.6 8.3

 

Friday September 21
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Central Florida Florida Atlantic 17.3 16.5 16.6
Illinois Penn St. -26.8 -23.9 -28.2
USC Washington St. 2.8 1.8 3.1

 

Saturday September 22
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Iowa St. Akron 18.5 15.2 17.5
Marshall North Carolina St. -16.0 -12.5 -14.4
Massachusetts Charlotte 10.2 9.7 11.0
Indiana Michigan St. -20.5 -18.8 -20.5
Maryland Minnesota -2.4 -3.4 -3.3
Ball St. Western Kentucky 1.6 0.6 -0.2
Purdue Boston College -10.2 -9.0 -11.1
Syracuse Connecticut 33.9 32.3 34.3
Miami (Fla.) Florida Int’l. 32.4 26.6 31.4
North Carolina Pittsburgh 0.8 0.0 0.6
Florida St. Northern Illinois 13.6 11.8 13.0
Bowling Green Miami (O) -3.6 -5.3 -4.1
Ohio St. Tulane 37.3 34.7 38.4
Georgia Tech Clemson -18.0 -15.8 -19.2
Cincinnati Ohio U 1.8 2.2 1.0
South Florida East Carolina 15.4 18.9 17.0
Wake Forest Notre Dame -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Toledo Nevada 9.0 10.8 9.1
Virginia Louisville 4.8 5.2 4.4
Georgia St. Western Michigan -11.4 -10.3 -11.3
Rutgers Buffalo -2.3 -5.5 -5.7
Oregon St. Arizona -10.1 -10.8 -11.6
Oregon Stanford -5.6 -3.0 -5.5
Tennessee Florida -10.9 -8.8 -12.0
Kentucky Mississippi St. -12.1 -10.6 -12.9
Michigan Nebraska 26.9 27.2 29.8
West Virginia Kansas St. 9.5 10.0 9.8
Ole Miss Kent St. 26.5 25.3 28.1
Southern Miss. Rice 14.9 15.1 16.7
Auburn Arkansas 24.7 26.1 28.6
Oklahoma St. Texas Tech 14.7 14.3 16.3
SMU Navy -1.6 -5.2 -2.3
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 3.7 2.6 4.1
Arkansas St. UNLV 2.6 2.3 3.9
Texas TCU 0.2 -0.4 0.4
Oklahoma Army 29.5 27.8 30.2
LSU Louisiana Tech 23.0 20.4 22.9
Baylor Kansas 4.4 3.3 5.9
Vanderbilt South Carolina -7.1 -5.2 -6.3
Memphis South Alabama 26.8 27.0 27.3
Utah St. Air Force 13.2 14.6 15.3
UTEP New Mexico St. -3.9 -3.1 -4.5
UTSA Texas St. 11.1 12.4 12.5
UL-Monroe Troy -1.2 -2.9 -2.0
Old Dominion Virginia Tech -34.2 -29.7 -34.3
Liberty North Texas -17.1 -21.5 -17.8
Missouri Georgia -14.7 -12.5 -14.9
Alabama Texas A&M 28.9 28.0 30.4
Iowa Wisconsin 0.3 0.6 0.1
Washington Arizona St. 22.5 21.5 25.4
San Diego St. Eastern Michigan 10.9 10.1 11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Colorado St. Illinois St. 10.5
Central Michigan Maine 5.0
Duke UNC-Central 49.9
Appalachian St. Gardner-Webb 40.9
BYU McNeese St. 19.0
Houston Texas Southern 45.6
Hawaii Duquesne 27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2
2 Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4
3 Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0
4 Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1
5 Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7
6 Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1
7 Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4
8 Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0
9 Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9
10 Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8
11 Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7
12 Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4
13 Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6
14 Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3
15 Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3
16 Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3
17 Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0
18 Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9
19 Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7
20 L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4
21 Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4
22 T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5
23 Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4
24 Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3
25 N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3
26 Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1
27 Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0
28 S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7
29 Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7
30 West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5
31 Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8
32 Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6
33 Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3
34 Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4
35 Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1
36 Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8
37 Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4
38 Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4
39 California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3
40 Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3
41 Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2
42 U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0
43 Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1
44 Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6
45 Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5
46 Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2
47 Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2
48 Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7
49 Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5
50 Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2
51 Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1
52 Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8
53 Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0
54 BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6
55 N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5
56 Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4
57 Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1
58 Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0
59 Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0
60 Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4
61 San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7
62 Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6
63 Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4
64 Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2
65 N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0
66 Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9
67 South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4
68 Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8
69 Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7
70 Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2
71 Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3
72 Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1
73 Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1
74 Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8
75 Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6
76 Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5
77 Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4
78 Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2
79 Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0
80 Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5
81 Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4
82 U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1
83 Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0
84 Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8
85 Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6
86 Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3
87 Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7
88 Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2
89 Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9
90 Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6
91 Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8
92 Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7
93 Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1
94 Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0
95 SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8
96 U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7
98 Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8
99 U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7
100 Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7
101 Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6
102 Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2
103 New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6
104 Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9
105 UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8
106 Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7
107 East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3
108 Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0
109 W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5
110 Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3
111 Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2
112 Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8
113 Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5
114 Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7
115 South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2
116 U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2
117 Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1
118 Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0
119 Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7
120 Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5
121 Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5
122 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0
123 Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2
124 San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2
125 Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7
126 Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9
127 N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4
128 Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6
129 Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2
130 U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.0 112.8 113.1 113.0 1-0 2-0
South Florida 98.3 101.0 99.0 99.4 0-0 3-0
Temple 97.2 97.2 97.6 97.3 0-0 1-2
Cincinnati 93.2 94.8 93.2 93.7 0-0 3-0
East Carolina 85.9 85.1 85.0 85.3 0-0 1-1
Connecticut 78.1 78.3 76.8 77.7 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 105.0 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-1 2-1
Houston 102.1 102.9 102.3 102.4 0-0 2-1
Navy 95.5 98.3 95.2 96.4 1-0 2-1
Tulane 94.3 94.6 93.9 94.3 0-0 1-2
Tulsa 91.3 90.1 91.8 91.1 0-0 1-2
SMU 91.5 90.6 90.4 90.8 0-0 0-3
AAC Averages 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 129.8 126.7 130.5 129.0 0-0 3-0
Boston College 118.2 115.3 118.4 117.3 1-0 3-0
N. Carolina St. 113.6 113.0 113.2 113.3 0-0 2-0
Syracuse 109.0 107.6 108.1 108.2 1-0 3-0
Wake Forest 108.7 106.4 106.3 107.1 0-1 2-1
Florida St. 105.8 104.9 105.1 105.2 0-2 1-2
Louisville 100.4 100.4 99.8 100.2 0-0 2-1
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami 117.9 116.3 117.7 117.3 0-0 2-1
Virginia Tech 116.5 116.0 116.4 116.3 1-0 2-0
Duke 115.6 113.2 115.2 114.7 0-0 3-0
Georgia Tech 109.3 108.3 108.7 108.8 0-1 1-2
Pittsburgh 102.3 102.0 101.7 102.0 1-0 2-1
Virginia 102.2 102.7 101.1 102.0 0-0 2-1
N. Carolina 100.6 99.5 99.8 100.0 0-0 0-2
ACC Averages 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.6 121.3 123.2 122.4 1-0 3-0
Oklahoma St. 116.4 114.6 116.7 115.9 0-0 3-0
T C U 114.2 113.3 113.2 113.5 0-0 2-1
West Virginia 112.0 111.2 111.4 111.5 0-0 2-0
Texas 111.4 109.9 110.6 110.6 0-0 2-1
Iowa State 110.0 108.0 109.3 109.1 0-1 0-2
Kansas St. 105.5 104.1 104.5 104.7 0-0 2-1
Texas Tech 104.7 103.2 103.4 103.8 0-0 2-1
Baylor 102.3 100.1 101.7 101.4 0-0 2-1
Kansas 100.9 99.8 98.9 99.9 0-0 2-1
Big 12 Averages 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Ohio St. 128.7 126.2 129.3 128.1 1-0 3-0
Michigan 122.3 121.1 122.8 122.0 0-0 2-1
Penn St. 122.7 119.8 123.2 121.9 0-0 3-0
Michigan St. 122.6 120.3 122.3 121.8 0-0 1-1
Maryland 101.2 99.8 100.3 100.4 0-0 2-1
Indiana 99.1 98.5 98.8 98.8 0-0 3-0
Rutgers 90.5 89.6 88.6 89.6 0-1 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Wisconsin 117.0 114.3 116.6 116.0 0-0 2-1
Iowa 114.3 111.9 113.7 113.3 0-0 3-0
Northwestern 109.1 107.2 108.9 108.4 1-0 1-2
Minnesota 106.7 106.2 106.6 106.5 0-0 3-0
Purdue 105.0 103.3 104.3 104.2 0-1 0-3
Nebraska 98.4 96.9 96.0 97.1 0-0 0-2
Illinois 93.0 92.9 92.0 92.6 0-0 2-1
Big Ten Averages 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 98.3 98.8 99.0 98.7 0-0 2-1
Marshall 94.6 97.5 95.8 96.0 0-0 2-0
Middle Tennessee 89.0 90.2 89.9 89.7 0-0 1-2
Florida Int’l. 87.5 91.8 88.3 89.2 1-0 2-1
W. Kentucky 83.1 86.3 84.2 84.5 0-0 0-3
Old Dominion 79.8 83.8 79.6 81.1 0-2 0-3
Charlotte 75.0 77.5 75.3 75.9 1-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
N. Texas 101.4 104.1 102.2 102.5 0-0 3-0
Louisiana Tech 93.6 96.1 94.8 94.8 0-0 2-0
U A B 88.9 91.1 89.1 89.7 0-0 2-1
Southern Miss. 82.5 85.7 83.0 83.8 0-0 1-1
U T S A 79.4 83.8 80.2 81.2 0-0 0-3
Rice 70.6 73.6 69.3 71.2 0-0 1-2
U T E P 68.8 71.8 68.2 69.6 0-0 0-3
CUSA Averages 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 119.4 115.8 117.8 117.6 x 3-0
BYU 102.2 102.8 102.9 102.6 x 2-1
Army 96.1 96.5 96.0 96.2 x 2-1
Massachusetts 83.2 85.2 84.4 84.3 x 1-3
Liberty 81.2 79.5 81.4 80.7 x 1-1
N. Mexico St. 74.7 76.9 74.6 75.4 x 0-4
Indep. Averages 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 95.4 97.7 96.7 96.6 1-0 3-0
Akron 94.4 95.8 94.8 95.0 0-0 2-0
Ohio U 93.9 95.1 94.7 94.6 0-0 1-1
Miami (O) 89.0 90.7 89.7 89.8 0-0 0-3
Bowling Green 83.4 83.4 83.6 83.5 0-0 1-2
Kent St. 80.4 81.4 79.6 80.5 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 96.6 98.3 96.5 97.1 0-0 1-1
Northern Illinois 95.3 96.0 95.1 95.5 1-0 1-2
Eastern Michigan 92.3 93.6 92.9 92.9 0-1 2-1
Western Michigan 90.9 92.5 91.7 91.7 0-0 1-2
Central Michigan 84.0 86.7 84.4 85.0 0-1 0-3
Ball St. 82.1 84.5 81.6 82.7 0-0 1-2
MAC Averages 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Boise St. 113.5 112.7 113.9 113.4 0-0 2-1
Utah St. 103.5 105.0 105.1 104.5 0-0 2-1
Wyoming 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.5 0-0 2-2
Air Force 93.3 93.4 92.8 93.2 0-0 1-1
New Mexico 86.9 88.8 87.2 87.6 0-0 2-1
Colo. State 84.0 84.8 83.9 84.2 0-1 1-3
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 110.0 108.3 109.9 109.4 0-0 2-1
San Diego St. 100.2 100.7 101.4 100.7 0-0 2-1
Nevada 91.1 90.9 90.9 91.0 0-0 2-1
U N L V 90.0 91.6 90.5 90.7 0-0 2-1
Hawaii 80.6 82.9 79.4 81.0 1-0 3-1
San Jose St. 78.5 79.3 76.7 78.2 0-0 0-3
MWC Averages 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 126.8 124.4 129.1 126.7 1-0 2-1
Stanford 120.0 117.6 120.5 119.4 1-0 3-0
Oregon 111.4 111.5 112.1 111.7 0-0 3-0
Washington St. 109.1 108.2 108.0 108.4 0-0 3-0
California 109.4 106.6 109.0 108.3 0-0 3-0
Oregon St. 88.0 85.7 86.5 86.7 0-0 1-2
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 111.1 109.3 112.0 110.8 0-1 2-1
U S C 108.9 107.0 108.1 108.0 0-1 1-2
Arizona St. 107.3 105.9 106.6 106.6 0-0 2-1
Colorado 101.1 102.7 102.4 102.1 0-0 3-0
Arizona 101.2 99.5 101.1 100.6 0-0 1-2
U C L A 96.2 96.0 93.2 95.1 0-0 0-3
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 132.2 128.4 133.6 131.4 1-0 3-0
Missouri 114.5 113.0 115.7 114.4 0-0 3-0
S. Carolina 112.3 111.1 111.7 111.7 0-1 1-1
Florida 110.8 109.1 111.1 110.3 0-1 2-1
Kentucky 108.8 107.6 108.5 108.3 1-0 3-0
Vanderbilt 102.6 103.4 102.9 103.0 0-0 2-1
Tennessee 96.9 97.3 96.1 96.8 0-0 2-1
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 139.3 137.2 141.2 139.2 1-0 3-0
Mississippi St. 123.8 121.1 124.4 123.1 0-0 3-0
Auburn 121.4 120.2 123.6 121.7 0-1 2-1
L S U 114.1 114.0 115.2 114.4 1-0 3-0
Texas A&M 113.4 112.2 113.8 113.1 0-0 2-1
Ole Miss 104.0 103.7 104.8 104.1 0-1 2-1
Arkansas 99.7 97.0 98.0 98.2 0-0 1-2
SEC Averages 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 94.5 96.0 95.8 95.4 0-0 1-1
Troy 90.9 92.2 92.3 91.8 0-0 2-1
Georgia Southern 86.3 87.7 86.6 86.9 0-0 2-1
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.8 79.4 80.0 0-0 2-1
Georgia St. 77.1 79.7 77.9 78.2 0-0 1-2
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.6 91.0 91.4 90.7 0-0 2-1
UL-Monroe 86.7 86.2 87.3 86.8 0-0 2-1
South Alabama 81.2 83.3 82.0 82.2 1-0 1-2
Louisiana 79.5 81.4 80.5 80.5 0-0 1-1
Texas State 70.8 73.9 70.2 71.6 0-1 1-2
Sun Belt Averages 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 113.8 112.5 114.3 113.6
2 ACC 110.7 109.5 110.2 110.1
3 B12 110.0 108.5 109.3 109.3
4 BTEN 109.3 107.7 108.8 108.6
5 P-12 107.5 106.2 107.4 107.0
6 AAC 95.5 96.1 95.4 95.6
7 MWC 94.0 94.6 94.0 94.2
8 IND 92.8 92.8 92.9 92.8
9 MAC 89.8 91.3 90.1 90.4
10 CUSA 85.2 88.0 85.7 86.3
11 SUN 83.5 85.3 84.3 84.4

This Week’s Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

  1. South Florida
  2. Central Florida
  3. North Texas
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA San Diego St. [Northern Illinois]
Cure AAC SBC Central Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Arizona St.
Camellia MAC SBC Akron Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC UAB UL-Monroe
Boca Raton MAC CUSA Marshall Western Michigan
Frisco AAC MAC [Utah] Toledo
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Bahamas AAC CUSA Houston Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Buffalo Utah St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Memphis Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Navy [BYU]
Dollar General MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
Hawaii CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [Army] Southern Miss.
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Wake Forest Indiana
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech California
Independence ACC SEC Virginia [Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Boston College Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Iowa St. South Carolina
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Duke Missouri
Camping World ACC Big 12 Notre Dame West Virginia
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU Washington
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. Auburn
Peach At-large At-large Virginia Tech Oklahoma St.
Military AAC ACC Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Sun ACC Pac-12 Syracuse Colorado
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota USC
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Michigan Florida
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large Oregon North Texas
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Miami (Fla.) Texas A&M
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Mississippi St.
PLAYOFFS
Cotton FBS PLAYOFF Penn St. Georgia
Orange FBS PLAYOFF Alabama Clemson
Champ. Game Winners Alabama Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Sweet 16 Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Washington State at USC  10:30 PM  on ESPN

USC has dropped consecutive road games, the most previous not being all that close.  With a true freshman quarterback and his top receiver also being a true freshman, can the Trojans score enough points against the Air Raid offense of the Pirate, Mike Leach.

Washington State is 3-0 but has yet to face strong competition, but if the Cougars can win this game, they become a contender for the Pac-12 North Division title.

Saturday
12:00 Noon

Georgia at Missouri  ESPN

Georgia should win this game by playing smashmouth football against a Missouri defense that just gave up a lot of points and yards against Purdue.  However, the Tigers may have overlooked an 0-2 team.  Still, Georgia looks invincible at least until they travel to the Bayou later in the season.

Minnesota at Maryland  BTN

All of a sudden, the Big Ten West looks open for more than one team.  Minnesota is a silent 3-0, and a win in College Park could find the Gophers ranked and in contention for the division flag.

Maryland’s win over Texas would have meant a lot more had they not gotten their Terrapin shell handed to them by lowly Temple.  The Terps must win this game to have any chance at becoming bowl eligible.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest ABC

Notre Dame is a very soft 3-0, and they have played all three games at home.  This will be the Irish’s first road game and first ACC opponent of the season.  They play at a Wake Forest team that made a valiant comeback that came up a bit short against Boston College.  Notre Dame must go 12-0 or 11-1 with a lot of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.

3:30 PM

Clemson at Georgia Tech ABC

We are not going to tell you that this game should be close, but…..

Clemson has not really fired on all cylinders yet.  It can be hard to play two separate offensive game plans every week, and the two quarterback system may prove to be a liability at some point.

The Tigers have been upset both of the last two years in conference play.  We don’t expect this to be one of those games, but we are anxious to see how CU uses their two QBs in conference play.

Georgia Tech’s multiple option offense should be forced into more passing situations against the top defensive front in the nation, but should Clemson’s offense not sustain a good number of drives, the Tigers may give up some points in the second half.

Kansas St. at West Virginia ESPN

West Virginia missed Saturday’s game, and so far teams that had games cancelled have not been all that sharp.  They face a Kansas State team that is going to need to pick up an upset or two to reach bowl eligibility this year.  The Mountaineers need to pick up a statement win in conference play to strike fear in the Oklahoma’s, Oklahoma State’s, and TCU’s.

Texas A&M at Alabama CBS

This week, the Crimson Tide have done something that has not been done in 17 years.  At the end of the 2001 season, National Champion Miami of Florida rated 9.6 points ahead of #2 Oregon.  Alabama is the first team since to be more than a touchdown ahead of the number two team in our ratings.

At this point, we’re not sure the Buffalo Bills could beat Alabama at New Era Field in the snow.  Alabama looked as good if not better than the 1995 Nebraska team that won the national championship with ease.

What makes this game so inviting is that Texas A&M played Clemson a couple weeks ago.  In that game, the Aggies looked like they belonged on the same field with a top 10 team.  If Alabama makes this another laugher, that will tell us all just how far ahead of another potential playoff team they have advanced.

TCU at Texas Fox

These teams don’t particularly care much for each other, and with TCU coming into this game with doubts, while the Longhorns are sky high, it should be quite interesting.  Prior last Saturday, TCU looked like a cinch to win this game according to the ratings.  After the ‘Horns clobbered USC and TCU blew up in a four-minute stretch against Ohio State, this game becomes a toss-up in the ratings.

What’s up for grabs in this game is a chance to become a key contender for the number two spot in the conference standings, which in the Big 12 will get you in the Conference Championship Game.

4 PM

South Carolina at Vanderbilt SEC

South Carolina is another team that had a game cancelled unexpectedly due to the weather.  They have not played since Georgia mutilated them in Columbia.  At this point, the Gamecocks are playing for a Citrus Bowl bid, as Georgia is not going to lose two conference games.

Vanderbilt did everything but outscore Notre Dame in South Bend, Saturday.  The Commodores outgained the Irish by 40 yards, but they suffered a loss of at least 11 points due not being able to hang onto the ball.  If the Commodores can come out with a chip on their shoulders, this can be a close game that could be decided in the final minutes.  However, as long time Commodore fans know, Vanderbilt has been known to come out flat and not show up the week after they experienced a moral victory.

7 PM

Florida at Tennessee ESPN

The winner of this game will earn a bowl bid this year.  That’s more than enough to make a game important, but this is the first chance for two new coaches to get the upper hand over their rival in this big rivalry game.

Tennessee’s defense has looked strong the last two weeks against an FCS team and the #130 FBS team.  How will they look against a better than average SEC offense?  Better yet, if you can only score 24 points at home against UTEP, how are you going to score enough to beat the Gators?

Mississippi St. at Kentucky ESPN2

One of these two teams will be 4-0 after this game, almost assuredly ranked in the top 25, and a serious contender for the Citrus or even Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.

The win over Florida in Gainesville is looking mighty good for the Wildcats, while Mississippi State looked a lot like Penn State in their last two games, which shouldn’t surprise many people that know that Coach Joe Moorhead was the offensive coordinator in Happy Valley.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. FS1

After getting pasted by Ole Miss in week one, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury was square in the middle of a hot seat in Lubbock.  The 63-point showing in a win over Houston has cooled the seat a bit, but the Red Raiders have an uphill climb to find four more wins and get bowl eligible.  Anything short of a bowl bid would most likely be the end of the Kingsbury era.

Oklahoma State looked like a playoff contender in their comfortable win over Boise State.  The Cowboys look like the top contender to their rival Sooners in the Big 12, and if they slow down the Red Raiders and hold them to 28 points or less, while winning by double digits, OSU could move on to a 9-0 start when they go to Norman in November.

 

7:30 PM

Michigan St. at Indiana BTN

Michigan State has been a major disappointment to start this season.  The Spartans had the most experience returning in FBS football this year, off a team that won 10 games last year.  A much closer than expected opening win over Utah State was followed by a loss at Arizona State.  After a week off, they now find themselves travelling into a potential ambush in Bloomington.

Indiana is 3-0 for the first time since 2015 and just the second time in the last nine seasons.  The Hoosiers look like a potential bowl eligible squad, and they basically need to pull off one conference upset to get to 3-6 in the league and guarantee six wins.  Their rebuilt defense is looking strong enough to keep them in this game, and if MSU hasn’t snapped out of their funk, the Hoosiers could surprise and move to 4-0.  The last three times IU began 4-0, they made it to a bowl game.

8:00 PM

Stanford at Oregon ABC

This may be the top game of the weekend.  The winner of this game will be the co-contender with Washington and possibly Washington State for the Pac-12 North flag.  Neither team has been exceptionally strong so far, and Stanford’s win over USC lost a lot of its oomph when USC was clobbered by Texas.  The key to this game may be the health of Bryce Love.  Love did not play against UC-Davis after rushing for 136 yards against USC.  Last year, he torched Oregon with 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon’s defense against the run has looked solid this year, while the Ducks’ passing game behind Justin Herbert has been spectacular at times.  The Ducks have had this game circled on their schedule since Spring practice.  The Cardinal have embarrassed the Ducks with consecutive slaughters the last two seasons, and the Ducks will be inspired to shut down Stanford’s running game and force the Cardinal out of their game plan.

8:30 PM

Wisconsin at Iowa Fox

If Wisconsin continues to look lifeless on offense for 20 minutes per game, the Badgers are not going to win the Big Ten West.  They are in a precarious position having to come to Iowa City for a prime time game, where the Hawkeyes enjoy an incredible home field advantage.

Iowa rarely puts up flashy offensive yardage numbers.  But, when you limit opponents to 42 rushing yards and 209 total yards per game, you can win by scoring 24 points and gaining 380 total yards.  They gang tackle and rarely let an opponent get many yards after contact.

10:30 PM

Arizona St. at Washington ESPN

The late game on ESPN is usually exciting, because it involves two teams with wide open offenses from the West Coast.  Also, frequently, these teams cannot play a lot of defense.  This mold was broken Saturday night, when in Washington’s win over Utah in Salt Lake City, the Huskies looked more like their 1959 and 1960 teams that went 10-1.  UW gained just 330 yards and gave up 261 to the Utes.

Arizona State did nothing on the ground against San Diego State, and if the Sun Devils don’t correct this Saturday night, they will get pasted in Seattle.  The ASU passing game cannot pass for 300 yards against the Huskies’ secondary, so if UW can limit ASU’s running game, this could be another one of those 1960-style defensive victories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 12, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 13-17, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:56 pm

We received a lot of comments last week from regular readers to this site that know how to contact us through another site.  We tend to keep our comments sections closed, because it becomes a task to monitor it for stuff that does not need to appear here.

The comments had nothing to do with our own picks last week.  We introduced five guest pickers, three of them members of the fairer sex, and overall, they had quite a successful week.

By far the overwhelming amount of responses were aimed at Buckeye Michelle.  The Ohio Transplant to the Sunny South merely went 5-0 picking 5 underdogs, and we received all kinds of comments pertaining to her, including a couple of marriage proposals.

Friday Dog 13 went 3-0 picking three prohibitive favorites that won by even larger scores than the line they were asked to cover.

Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2 in her seven picks, again, a very successful week that equates to a 56% Return on Investment.

Stewed Meat narrowly missed having a winning week, as Stewed went 2-3.  Bringing up the rear at 1-2 was Dean 615.

What about our own picks?  We suffered a lot of near misses and finished the week losing $90 imaginary after wagering $1,100 and going 5-6.  For the years, after two weeks, we are down $220 on a total of $1,700 wagered in our pretend bank account, so we are off to a bad year so far.

Just remember, all the picks you receive here this week and every week are free, and you should consider them worth exactly what you pay for them.

First, here are the PiRate’s official selections for the week.

Straight Spreads and Totals Selections–7

Favorite Underdog Spread/Total Pick
Army Hawaii           6 Army
Baylor Duke          6.5 Duke
Minnesota Miami (Ohio)          13 Minnesota
Denver Oakland          46 Under
Washington Indianapolis          47 Under
Cincinnati Baltimore           1 Baltimore
Dallas N.Y. Giants           3 Dallas

10-point Teaser Parlays–2

If you are unfamiliar with 10-point teasers, you can move the line by 10 points in your favor and play at less favorable odds than if you wager a straight wager against the spread or total.  By combining more than one game into a parlay, you can adjust the odds.  A 10-point teaser using three games makes the odds the same as wagering a straight wager.  You put up $11 of your money against $10 of the books, or what is referred to as -110 (You wager $110 versus the book wagering $100).

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Florida Colorado St. 31 Colorado St.
Texas USC 13.5 USC
Boston College Wake Forest 15 Wake Forest

 

10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Indiana Ball St. 4 Indiana
Penn St. Kent St. 24.5 Penn St.
Wisconsin BYU 11 Wisconsin

The Land Sharps

Now for our special sharps–our 5 guest pickers.  They have been tasked with selecting 3, 5, 7, or 9 college games each week.  None of the 5 know what the other 4 are picking, so in some cases, more than one guest is picking the same game, and even though it did not happen this week, we are sure that at some point, they could be on opposite sides of the same game.

We search for the best available line at oddshark.com.

Buckeye Michelle (5-0 for the season)

Syracuse + 3 1/2 vs. Florida St.

LSU +10 vs. Auburn

Duke +6 1/2 vs. Baylor

San Diego St. +5 1/2 vs. Arizona St.

Toledo +10 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

 

Friday Dog 13 (3-0 for the season)

Missouri -6 vs. Purdue

Tennessee -30 1/2 vs. UTEP

Virginia -3 1/2 vs. Ohio

 

Cal Gal Tiffany  (5-2 for the season)

Florida Int’l. -4 vs. U Mass.

Army -6 vs. Hawaii

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

Washington – 6 1/2 vs. Utah

Georgia Tech +4 vs. Pittsburgh

 

Stewed Meat (2-3 for the season)

Colorado St. +20 1/2 vs. Florida

Buffalo -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

Oregon St. +3 1/2 vs. Nevada

Washington -6 1/2 vs. Utah

Oklahoma St. -2 1/2 vs. Boise St.

 

Dean 615 (1-2 for the season)

Notre Dame -14 vs. Vanderbilt

North Texas +7 vs. Arkansas

TCU +14 vs. Ohio St.

 

 

 

March 2, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 2, 2018

Championship Fortnight is now in full force, as in just a little over 24 hours from this writing, the first automatic bid to the Big Dance will be awarded.  That bid will go to the winner of the Ohio Valley Conference, which is now down to four teams.  Murray State and Belmont have yet to play in the tournament, as the top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals.  It will be a major surprise if Austin Peay or Jacksonville St. steal this bid, as both Murray and Belmont have the talent to win an opening round game in the NCAA Tournament.

Here’s a look at Thursday’s exciting conference tournament action.  A lot of games came down to the last minute.

Atlantic Sun Semifinals

Florida Gulf Coast   95     North Florida   72

Lipscomb   77                     Jacksonville   62

Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
3:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #2 Lipscomb ESPN

 

Big South Quarterfinals

Radford   59               Longwood   53

Winthrop   72            Gardner-Webb   68

UNC-Asheville   71   Charleston Southern   66

Liberty   73                  Campbell   59

Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #2 Radford #3 Winthrop ESPN3
8:30 PM #1 UNC-Asheville #5 Liberty ESPN3
       
Championship–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
1:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN

 

Big Ten Second Round

Wisconsin   59   Maryland 54

Michigan   77     Iowa   71   ot

Penn St.   65       Northwestern   57

Rutgers   76        Indiana   69

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Michigan St. #9 Wisconsin Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 Nebraska #5 Michigan Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 Ohio St. #7 Penn St. Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 Purdue #14 Rutgers Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM Michigan St. or Wisconsin Nebraska or Michigan CBS
4:30 PM Ohio St. or Penn St. Purdue or Rutgers CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

 

Metro Atlantic First Round

St. Peter’s   60      Monmouth   58

Quinnipiac   67    Siena   58

Fairfield   71        Marist   57

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Rider #9 St. Peter’s ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 Canisius #7 Quinnipiac ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #3 Niagara #6 Fairfield ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Iona #5 Manhattan ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Rider or St. Peter’s Iona or Manhattan ESPN3
9:30 PM Canisius or Quinnipiac Niagara or Fairfield ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

 

Missouri Valley First Round

Northern Iowa   60    Evansville   50

Missouri St.   83          Valparaiso   79

Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Loyola (Chi.) #9 Northern Iowa ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Drake #5 Bradley ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 Southern Illinois #7 Missouri St. ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Illinois St. #6 Indiana St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM Loyola/Evans/UNI Drake or Bradley CBSSN
5:00 PM SIU/MSU/Valpo Ill St. or Ind St. CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

 

Ohio Valley Quarterfinals

Jacksonville St.   73     Tennessee Tech   70

Austin Peay   73           Eastern Illinois   66

Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Murray St. #4 Jacksonville St. ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Belmont #3 Austin Peay ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Patriot League Quarterfinals

Bucknell   83        Loyola (MD)   78

Boston U   88        Lehigh   82

Colgate   76           Lafayette   54

Holy Cross   81     Navy   65

Semifinals–March 4
Time Home Visitors TV
12:00 PM #2 Colgate #6 Holy Cross CBSSN
2:00 PM #1 Bucknell #5 Boston U CBSSN
       
Championship–March 7
Time Home Visitors TV
7:30 PM     CBSSN

 

 


Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Horizon League Tournament
Detroit (Motor City Madness)
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:30 PM #7 Green Bay #10 Detroit ESPN3
8:00 PM #8 Cleveland St. #9 Youngstown St. ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
5:30 PM #2 Wright St. GB or Detroit ESPN3
8:00 PM #1 Northern Kentucky Clev St or Youngs St. ESPN3
       
       
Quarterfinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #3 UIC #6 Milwaukee ESPN3
7:30 PM #4 Oakland #5 IUPUI ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM NKU/CSU/YSU Oakland or IUPUI ESPNU
9:30 PM Wright St./GB/Det UIC or Milwaukee ESPNU
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

 

Southern Conference Tournament
Asheville, NC
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 The Citadel #9 VMI ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 Samford #10 Chattanooga ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 UNC-Greensboro Citadel or VMI ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Mercer #5 Wofford ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 East Tennessee St. Samford or Chatt. ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Furman #6 Western Carolina ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:00 PM UNCG/Cit/VMI Mercer or Wofford ESPN3
6:30 PM ETSU/Sam/Chatt Furman or WCU ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
9:00 PM     ESPN2

 

West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
All Times PST
       
First Round–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 Loyola Marymount #9 Portland NBCSN
8:00 PM #7 Santa Clara #10 Pepperdine NBCSN
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #3 BYU #6 San Diego NBCSN
3:00 PM #4 San Francisco #5 Pacific NBCSN
7:00 PM #1 Gonzaga LMU or Portland ESPN2
9:00 PM #2 Saint Mary’s Santa Clara or Pepperdine ESPN2
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM Gonz/LMU/Portland USF or Pacific ESPN
8:00 PM SMU/SCU/Pepperdine BYU or USD ESPN2
       
Championship–March 6
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM     ESPN

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Top 25

Rank Team PiRate Rating Conf.
1 Virginia 118.0 ACC
2 Villanova 117.8 BIGE
3 Duke 117.3 ACC
4 Purdue 116.9 BTEN
5 Michigan St. 116.6 BTEN
6 Cincinnati 116.5 AAC
7 Kansas 114.3 B12
8 West Virginia 113.8 B12
9 North Carolina 113.8 ACC
10 Texas Tech 113.7 B12
11 Gonzaga 113.5 WCC
12 Tennessee 113.1 SEC
13 Xavier 112.5 BIGE
14 Auburn 112.4 SEC
15 Nevada 112.4 MWC
16 Wichita St. 112.1 AAC
17 Ohio St. 111.9 BTEN
18 Michigan 111.8 BTEN
19 Clemson 111.7 ACC
20 Kentucky 111.4 SEC
21 Houston 111.2 AAC
22 Florida 111.2 SEC
23 Butler 111.0 BIGE
24 Creighton 110.9 BIGE
25 TCU 110.6 B12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings For Power Conferences

And Top Mid-Majors

Team PiRate Conf.
Rhode Island 108.9 A10
Davidson 106.5 A10
St. Bonaventure 105.1 A10
St. Louis 102.8 A10
St. Joseph’s 101.5 A10
VCU 100.5 A10
LaSalle 100.2 A10
Dayton 99.2 A10
George Washington 98.0 A10
Duquesne 98.0 A10
Richmond 97.6 A10
George Mason 96.9 A10
Massachusetts 96.6 A10
Fordham 94.0 A10
Cincinnati 116.5 AAC
Wichita St. 112.1 AAC
Houston 111.2 AAC
SMU 106.0 AAC
Temple 104.9 AAC
UCF 104.4 AAC
Tulsa 102.4 AAC
Connecticut 99.5 AAC
Memphis 99.5 AAC
Tulane 99.1 AAC
South Florida 92.0 AAC
East Carolina 92.0 AAC
Virginia 118.0 ACC
Duke 117.3 ACC
North Carolina 113.8 ACC
Clemson 111.7 ACC
Louisville 110.4 ACC
Miami FL 109.6 ACC
Florida St. 109.5 ACC
Virginia Tech 109.3 ACC
Notre Dame 109.3 ACC
Syracuse 108.0 ACC
North Carolina St. 107.9 ACC
Boston College 105.2 ACC
Wake Forest 104.1 ACC
Georgia Tech 102.7 ACC
Pittsburgh 96.2 ACC
Kansas 114.3 B12
West Virginia 113.8 B12
Texas Tech 113.7 B12
TCU 110.6 B12
Baylor 110.3 B12
Texas 109.6 B12
Oklahoma 108.7 B12
Kansas St. 108.4 B12
Oklahoma St. 107.1 B12
Iowa St. 103.7 B12
Villanova 117.8 BIGE
Xavier 112.5 BIGE
Butler 111.0 BIGE
Creighton 110.9 BIGE
Seton Hall 109.9 BIGE
Marquette 107.1 BIGE
St. John’s 106.8 BIGE
Providence 106.5 BIGE
Georgetown 103.9 BIGE
DePaul 103.4 BIGE
Purdue 116.9 BTEN
Michigan St. 116.6 BTEN
Ohio St. 111.9 BTEN
Michigan 111.8 BTEN
Penn St. 110.2 BTEN
Maryland 108.5 BTEN
Nebraska 107.3 BTEN
Indiana 106.2 BTEN
Wisconsin 106.0 BTEN
Northwestern 105.5 BTEN
Illinois 103.9 BTEN
Iowa 103.5 BTEN
Minnesota 103.5 BTEN
Rutgers 102.8 BTEN
Arizona 110.1 PAC12
Arizona St. 108.9 PAC12
USC 108.3 PAC12
UCLA 106.9 PAC12
Oregon 106.8 PAC12
Utah 106.3 PAC12
Stanford 104.3 PAC12
Washington 103.8 PAC12
Oregon St. 103.1 PAC12
Colorado 102.7 PAC12
Washington St. 97.8 PAC12
California 95.4 PAC12
Tennessee 113.1 SEC
Auburn 112.4 SEC
Kentucky 111.4 SEC
Florida 111.2 SEC
Texas A&M 110.6 SEC
Arkansas 109.7 SEC
Missouri 108.9 SEC
Alabama 108.3 SEC
Mississippi St. 107.3 SEC
Georgia 106.7 SEC
South Carolina 106.4 SEC
LSU 105.8 SEC
Vanderbilt 103.9 SEC
Mississippi 103.7 SEC
Gonzaga 113.5 WCC
Saint Mary’s 109.2 WCC
BYU 105.6 WCC
San Diego 101.8 WCC
San Francisco 100.8 WCC
Pacific 98.4 WCC
Loyola Marymount 94.5 WCC
Portland 93.6 WCC
Santa Clara 93.5 WCC
Pepperdine 91.5 WCC
Middle Tennessee 109.4 CUSA
Loyola (Chi.) 108.2 MVC
Nevada 112.4 MWC
Boise St. 108.7 MWC
New Mexico St. 107.4 WAC

Today’s PiRate Rating Spreads For Power Conference Games

and Conference Tournament Games

Home Team or Higher Seed Visitor or Lower Seed Spread
Belmont Austin Peay 6.9
Canisius Quinnipiac 8.4
Citadel VMI -2.7
Cleveland St. Youngstown St. 1.2
Davidson Rhode Island 1.1
Drake Bradley -0.7
Green Bay Detroit 2.8
Illinois St. Indiana St. -0.3
Loyola (Chi.) Northern Iowa 6.5
Michigan St. Wisconsin 10.6
Murray St. Jacksonville St. 5.2
Nebraska Michigan -4.5
Ohio St. Penn St. 1.7
Oklahoma Iowa St. 8.5
Purdue Rutgers 14.1
Radford Winthrop -3.2
Rider St. Peter’s 6.4
Samford Chattanooga 3.0
Santa Clara Pepperdine 2.0
Southern Illinois Missouri St. -0.9
UNCA Liberty 4.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 1, 2018

PiRate Ratings Conference Tournament Update–March 1, 2018

Conference Tournament Action From Last Night

Big Ten Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Iowa 96 Illinois 87
Rutgers 65 Minnesota 54

Updated Big Ten Bracket

Second Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #8 Maryland #9 Wisconsin Big Ten
2:15 PM #5 Michigan Iowa Big Ten
6:30 PM #7 Penn St. #10 Northwestern Big Ten
8:45 PM #6 Indiana Rutgers Big Ten
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Michigan St. Mary or Wisc Big Ten
2:15 PM #4 Nebraska Michigan or Iowa Big Ten
6:30 PM #2 Ohio St. PSU or N’Western Big Ten
8:45 PM #3 Purdue Indiana or Rutgers Big Ten
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:00 PM MSU/Mary/Wisc Neb/Mich/Iowa CBS
4:30 PM OSU/Purd/NW Purd/Ind/Rutg CBS
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
4:30 PM     CBS

 

Northeast Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Wagner 73 Central Connecticut 61
Robert Morris 60 Mount St. Mary’s 56
Fairleigh-Dickinson 84 St. Francis (Pa) 75
Long Island 73 St. Francis (Bkn) 50

Updated Northeast Conference Bracket

Semifinals–March 3
Time Home Team Visitors TV
12:00 PM #1 Wagner #7 Robert Morris ESPN3
2:00 PM #4 Long Island #6 Fairleigh-Dickinson ESPN3
       
Championship–March 6
Time Home Team Visitors TV
7:00 PM Higher Seed Lower Seed ESPN2

 

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
First Round–February 28
   
Tennessee Tech 60 SIU-Edwardsville 51
Eastern Illinois 73 Tennessee St. 71

Updated Ohio Valley Conference Bracket

Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:30 PM #4 Jacksonville St. Tennessee Tech OVC
9:00 PM #3 Austin Peay Eastern Illinois OVC
       
Semifinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Murray St. Jax. St. or Tenn Tech ESPNU
9:30 PM #2 Belmont APSU or E. Illinois ESPNU
       
Championship–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     ESPN2

 

Other Conference Tournaments in Action Today

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Semifinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Florida Gulf Coast #5 North Florida ESPN3
8:00 PM #2 Lipscomb #3 Jacksonville ESPN3

 

Big South Conference Tournament
Championship Game at Higher Seed
Quarterfinals and Semfinals at #1 Seed UNC-Asheville
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM #2 Radford #10 Longwood ESPN3
3:30 PM #3 Winthrop #6 Gardner-Webb ESPN3
7:00 PM #1 UNC-Asheville #8 Charleston Southern ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Campbell #5 Liberty ESPN3

 

Patriot League Tournament
All Games Played at Higher Seed
All Times EST
Quarterfinals–March 1
Time Home Visitors TV
7:00 PM #1 Bucknell #8 Loyola (MD) Stadium
7:00 PM #4 Lehigh #5 Boston U Stadium
7:00 PM #2 Colgate #7 Lafayette Stadium
7:00 PM #3 Navy #6 Holy Cross Stadium

 

Conference Tournaments Beginning Today

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament
Albany, NY
All Times EST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
5:00 PM #8 Monmouth #9 St. Peter’s ESPN3
7:30 PM #7 Quinnipiac #10 Siena ESPN3
10:00 PM #6 Fairfield #11 Marist ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #1 Rider Monmouth or St. Peter’s ESPN3
9:30 PM #2 Canisius Quinn. or Siena ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM #3 Niagara Fair. or Marist ESPN3
9:30 PM #4 Iona #5 Manhattan ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM Rider/Monm/St. P Iona or Manhattan ESPN3
9:30 PM Can/Quinn/Siena Niag/Fair/Marist ESPN3
       
Championship–March 5
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
7:00 PM     TBA

While Rider and Canisius tied for the regular season conference championship, there are two other teams to watch closely in this tournament.  Iona has the best offense in the league, and in a tournament, sometimes the team that plays loose and can fill it up from outside will get a large lead against the other team that begins tight and cannot hit their perimeter shots.  Iona is the two-time defending tournament champion, and until the Gaels lose, they are our favorite to win it again, even as the four-seed.

The other team to watch from back of the pack is Fairfield, the hottest team in the league entering the tournament.  The Stags match up quite well with Niagara, who they would face in the quarterfinal round if they win tonight.

 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis (Arch Madness)
All Times CST
       
First Round–March 1
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
6:00 PM #8 Evansville #9 Northern Iowa ESPN3
8:30 PM #7 Missouri St. #10 Valparaiso ESPN3
       
Quarterfinals–March 2
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
12:00 PM #1 Loyola (Chi.) Evansville or UNI ESPN3
2:30 PM #4 Drake #5 Bradley ESPN3
6:00 PM #2 Southern Illinois MSU or Valpo ESPN3
8:30 PM #3 Illinois St. #6 Indiana St. ESPN3
       
Semifinals–March 3
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
2:30 PM Loyola/Evans/UNI Drake or Bradley CBSSN
5:00 PM SIU/MSU/Valpo Ill St. or Ind St. CBSSN
       
Championship–March 4
Time Higher Seed Lower Seed TV
1:00 PM     CBS

Without Wichita State playing bully on the rest of the league, it was thought that the Valley would be a wide open race this year with a host of teams competing for the regular season and tournament championships.  However, Loyola (Chi.), with five players averaging double figure scoring, has been nearly unstoppable in conference play this year.  The Ramblers have only been to a single NCAA Tournament since their heydays of the 1960’s,   Loyola enters Arch Madness on a 14 for 15 winning streak.

If any other team wins this tournament, it will be a major upset and will produce a 15-seed or worse.  Loyola could be a 13-seed as the Tournament Champions.

There is one team from way back in the pack that has the potential to sneak into the semifinals.  Northern Iowa is the number 9 seed.  If they beat Evansville tonight, they might be the team that can match up best with Loyola, who they would face tomorrow.  If they were to eliminate the Goliath, then there isn’t another team in the field any better than the Panthers.

 

January 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings 2017-18 College Football Final Polls

Congratulations go to Coach Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide for winning the National Championship in a thrilling overtime victory over the Georgia Bulldogs.  Alabama wins the top spot in all three ratings, plus the retro rankings.  Here’s how the final numbers crunched.

Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Ohio St.
4 Wisconsin
5 Central Florida
6 Penn St.
7 Clemson
8 Oklahoma
9 Notre Dame
10 Auburn
11 TCU
12 Michigan St.
13 Miami (Fla)
14 USC
15 Washington
16 Oklahoma St.
17 Northwestern
18 North Carolina St.
19 Iowa
20 Stanford
21 Virginia Tech
22 Mississippi St.
23 LSU
24 Memphis
25 Boise St.
26 Michigan
27 Iowa St.
28 Wake Forest
29 South Florida
30 Louisville
31 South Carolina
32 Washington St.
33 Toledo
34 Florida Atlantic
35 Boston College
36 Florida St.
37 Texas
38 Purdue
39 Kansas St.
40 San Diego St.
41 Fresno St.
42 Troy
43 Army
44 Navy
45 Texas A&M
46 Duke
47 Georgia Tech
48 Oregon
49 Utah
50 West Virginia
51 Missouri
52 Arizona St.
53 Houston
54 Texas Tech
55 Kentucky
56 Arizona
57 UCLA
58 Appalachian St.
59 Ohio
60 Indiana
61 Ole Miss
62 Pittsburgh
63 California
64 Northern Illinois
65 Temple
66 SMU
67 Minnesota
68 Marshall
69 North Texas
70 Virginia
71 Wyoming
72 Florida
73 Syracuse
74 Maryland
75 Central Michigan
76 Colorado
77 Colorado St.
78 Nebraska
79 Western Michigan
80 Louisiana Tech
81 Tulane
82 Vanderbilt
83 Arkansas St.
84 Southern Miss.
85 Florida Int’l.
86 Arkansas
87 Akron
88 Buffalo
89 Middle Tennessee
90 Utah St.
91 Tennessee
92 North Carolina
93 UAB
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Rutgers
96 Air Force
97 New Mexico St.
98 UTSA
99 Miami (O)
100 Cincinnati
101 Tulsa
102 UNLV
103 Western Kentucky
104 Baylor
105 BYU
106 East Carolina
107 Nevada
108 Georgia St.
109 Massachusetts
110 Connecticut
111 Illinois
112 Old Dominion
113 UL-Monroe
114 Bowling Green
115 New Mexico
116 Idaho
117 South Alabama
118 UL-Lafayette
119 Oregon St.
120 Hawaii
121 Coastal Carolina
122 Georgia Southern
123 Kansas
124 Kent St.
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 136.9 133.5 135.8 135.4
2 Ohio St. 132.3 130.2 132.6 131.7
3 Georgia 130.8 130.0 131.4 130.7
4 Clemson 131.3 128.6 130.9 130.3
5 Penn St. 129.4 128.1 129.8 129.1
6 Oklahoma 128.2 126.7 129.4 128.1
7 Auburn 127.0 125.2 127.2 126.5
8 Washington 126.2 124.2 126.1 125.5
9 Wisconsin 126.4 123.9 125.5 125.3
10 Oklahoma St. 121.2 120.4 121.6 121.1
11 Stanford 120.6 119.0 119.9 119.8
12 U S C 120.1 119.2 119.8 119.7
13 L S U 118.5 116.3 118.8 117.9
14 Virginia Tech 118.1 117.6 117.9 117.8
15 Miami 118.6 117.4 117.5 117.8
16 T C U 118.0 116.5 118.2 117.6
17 N. Carolina St. 117.1 116.2 117.0 116.8
18 Central Florida 116.0 116.9 117.2 116.7
19 Louisville 116.8 116.0 116.5 116.4
20 Notre Dame 116.6 115.4 116.8 116.2
21 Florida St. 116.9 116.0 115.7 116.2
22 Northwestern 115.4 114.2 115.5 115.0
23 Iowa 114.3 114.5 113.6 114.2
24 Michigan 114.2 114.0 113.4 113.9
25 Mississippi St. 113.5 113.3 113.3 113.4
26 Memphis 113.2 112.5 114.0 113.2
27 Iowa State 112.8 112.8 113.9 113.2
28 Texas 112.9 112.9 113.5 113.1
29 Kansas St. 112.9 112.7 113.0 112.9
30 Boston College 112.6 112.3 112.6 112.5
31 Michigan St. 111.0 111.6 112.1 111.6
32 Wake Forest 112.1 110.4 112.2 111.6
33 Duke 111.1 110.0 110.4 110.5
34 Utah 109.9 109.9 110.1 110.0
35 Oregon 110.5 108.6 109.9 109.7
36 Georgia Tech 110.2 108.4 108.7 109.1
37 Washington St. 109.8 107.7 109.3 108.9
38 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
39 S. Carolina 109.1 108.3 108.2 108.5
40 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.1 108.7 108.5
41 Missouri 108.5 107.1 107.8 107.8
42 Boise St. 107.5 106.1 107.6 107.1
43 Texas A&M 107.9 106.0 107.0 107.0
44 West Virginia 106.7 107.4 106.7 106.9
45 Arizona St. 106.4 105.3 106.0 105.9
46 Kentucky 106.4 105.7 105.0 105.7
47 Purdue 105.6 105.4 106.1 105.7
48 Indiana 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.7
49 Ole Miss 106.3 105.0 105.4 105.6
50 Florida 105.7 105.4 105.1 105.4
51 Arizona 106.0 104.9 104.9 105.3
52 Texas Tech 105.2 104.9 104.8 105.0
53 Florida Atlantic 103.4 104.9 105.3 104.5
54 California 105.3 103.2 103.8 104.1
55 Navy 103.5 104.1 103.7 103.8
56 Colorado 104.5 103.4 102.4 103.4
57 U C L A 103.0 102.4 102.3 102.6
58 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
59 San Diego St. 101.5 101.5 102.5 101.8
60 Houston 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.3
61 Syracuse 102.0 100.8 101.1 101.3
62 Army 100.9 100.8 101.3 101.0
63 Appalachian St. 101.2 100.0 101.4 100.9
64 Toledo 100.1 100.1 102.1 100.8
65 Minnesota 100.3 101.2 99.2 100.2
66 Vanderbilt 100.8 99.8 99.7 100.1
67 Troy 99.7 99.8 99.9 99.8
68 Fresno St. 99.9 98.6 100.8 99.8
69 Colo. State 99.8 99.1 99.7 99.5
70 Virginia 99.6 98.6 99.9 99.4
71 Ohio U 98.3 99.6 99.3 99.1
72 Arkansas 99.4 98.5 99.2 99.1
73 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
74 Temple 98.2 98.5 98.8 98.5
75 Wyoming 97.8 96.9 97.2 97.3
76 Tennessee 97.3 95.9 95.3 96.2
77 Western Michigan 95.8 95.2 96.5 95.8
78 Northern Illinois 95.0 95.0 95.8 95.2
79 Nebraska 94.9 95.4 94.4 94.9
80 Eastern Michigan 94.7 94.8 95.1 94.9
81 Maryland 94.5 95.8 93.9 94.7
82 Arkansas St. 93.8 95.0 94.7 94.5
83 Tulane 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.4
84 SMU 94.0 94.5 94.3 94.3
85 Utah St. 94.0 93.3 93.7 93.7
86 Marshall 92.4 93.5 93.8 93.3
87 Central Michigan 92.8 93.1 93.4 93.1
88 Tulsa 93.1 92.8 92.7 92.9
89 Air Force 92.2 92.5 92.2 92.3
90 Louisiana Tech 90.8 92.4 91.6 91.6
91 Middle Tennessee 90.4 91.4 91.6 91.1
92 Rutgers 91.1 91.1 90.7 91.0
93 BYU 90.0 89.9 89.9 89.9
94 Nevada 88.9 90.5 90.0 89.8
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Oregon St. 90.0 89.9 88.4 89.4
97 Massachusetts 88.9 88.4 89.0 88.8
98 U T S A 87.6 90.0 88.4 88.6
99 Buffalo 87.3 89.3 89.3 88.6
100 Florida Int’l. 87.6 88.0 88.4 88.0
101 Illinois 87.9 89.0 86.8 87.9
102 Southern Miss. 87.5 88.4 87.8 87.9
103 N. Texas 86.4 87.8 86.9 87.0
104 U N L V 86.2 87.7 86.3 86.8
105 N. Mexico St. 86.8 85.7 86.9 86.5
106 W. Kentucky 85.7 86.2 86.1 86.0
107 Connecticut 84.5 86.3 84.8 85.2
108 Akron 84.2 86.1 84.9 85.1
109 Cincinnati 83.9 85.7 84.6 84.7
110 New Mexico 84.4 84.4 84.9 84.6
111 East Carolina 83.2 84.5 83.3 83.7
112 Georgia St. 82.7 82.7 82.5 82.7
113 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
114 Bowling Green 81.5 82.6 81.8 82.0
115 Hawaii 81.8 82.9 81.1 81.9
116 UL-Monroe 81.9 82.8 81.0 81.9
117 S. Alabama 81.1 83.0 81.3 81.8
118 Idaho 80.8 81.6 81.7 81.3
119 Old Dominion 80.3 82.7 80.5 81.2
120 UAB 79.6 79.9 81.3 80.3
121 UL-Lafayette 79.3 80.5 79.0 79.6
122 Georgia Southern 79.1 80.4 78.5 79.3
123 Coastal Carolina 74.5 75.7 75.3 75.2
124 Kent St. 73.9 75.4 74.2 74.5
125 Rice 72.6 74.1 73.0 73.2
126 San Jose St. 72.3 72.4 71.6 72.1
127 Texas St. 70.3 72.5 69.4 70.7
128 Charlotte 69.5 71.8 69.7 70.3
129 U T E P 67.9 70.7 67.9 68.9
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
           
PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 112.7 111.6 112.2 112.2
2 SEC 112.0 110.7 111.4 111.4
3 B12 109.8 109.9 110.0 109.9
4 P-12 109.4 108.1 108.6 108.7
5 BTEN 108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
6 IND 99.1 98.6 99.2 99.0
7 AAC 97.9 98.3 98.2 98.1
8 MWC 92.2 92.2 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.2 89.1 89.0 88.8
10 CUSA 84.4 85.8 85.2 85.1
11 SBC 84.3 85.0 84.3 84.5

 

 

 

November 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for November 21-25, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:54 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Akron Kent St. 16.2 16.9 16.6
Eastern Michigan Bowling Green 17.7 16.8 17.7
Ball St. Miami (O) -20.5 -20.5 -21.0
Mississippi St. Ole Miss 11.6 12.9 12.7
TCU Baylor 24.2 21.2 24.4
Toledo Western Michigan 7.5 8.1 8.3
Virginia Virginia Tech -13.7 -14.2 -13.2
Central Michigan Northern Illinois 1.1 1.8 0.8
Buffalo Ohio U -9.4 -8.6 -8.4
Arkansas Missouri -7.9 -6.6 -7.6
San Diego St. New Mexico 20.5 20.7 21.2
Houston Navy 4.2 3.6 3.9
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) -16.3 -14.9 -15.8
Nebraska Iowa -9.3 -9.1 -9.0
Troy Texas St. 24.9 23.0 25.2
Central Florida South Florida 6.8 8.8 7.8
Florida Int’l. Western Kentucky -2.7 -2.2 -2.7
Texas Texas Tech 12.5 12.7 13.8
UCLA California 1.6 3.1 2.6
Cincinnati Connecticut 2.6 2.6 3.2
Syracuse Boston College -1.6 -3.0 -2.2
Rutgers Michigan St. -8.2 -9.5 -9.5
Purdue Indiana -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
Michigan Ohio St. -13.6 -11.4 -14.8
North Carolina St. North Carolina 14.0 14.1 14.7
Wake Forest Duke 5.9 4.8 7.1
Georgia St. Appalachian St. -6.8 -5.8 -6.5
Tennessee Vanderbilt 4.4 3.6 3.9
Kansas St. Iowa St. 2.3 2.1 1.3
Kentucky Louisville -6.0 -5.9 -7.1
Georgia Tech Georgia -13.3 -15.3 -15.0
Maryland Penn St. -24.0 -21.5 -24.8
Illinois Northwestern -21.9 -20.0 -23.1
Rice North Texas -12.7 -12.6 -13.2
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -27.1 -26.5 -28.5
Air Force Utah St. -0.3 0.9 -0.3
Marshall Southern Miss. 8.0 8.3 9.2
Nevada UNLV 3.8 4.0 4.7
Washington Washington St. 11.8 11.8 12.1
San Jose St. Wyoming -26.8 -25.4 -27.0
Utah Colorado 2.7 4.6 4.7
Louisiana-Monroe Arkansas St. -8.3 -8.7 -10.3
Middle Tennessee Old Dominion 6.9 5.8 7.7
Minnesota Wisconsin -19.4 -16.0 -19.2
Stanford Notre Dame 5.3 4.8 4.3
South Carolina Clemson -18.2 -16.7 -18.4
LSU Texas A&M 11.2 11.1 12.2
Fresno St. Boise St. -8.2 -7.7 -8.0
SMU Tulane 6.9 7.1 6.8
Oklahoma St. Kansas 41.7 37.8 43.5
Arizona St. Arizona 0.6 1.2 1.3
Oklahoma West Virginia 18.4 16.8 19.0
Oregon Oregon St. 16.6 14.9 17.3
New Mexico St. Idaho 9.9 7.5 9.1
Louisiana-Lafayette Georgia Southern 8.3 7.9 9.0
Tulsa Temple 5.1 3.9 4.7
Louisiana Tech UTSA -0.2 -0.5 -0.5
Memphis East Carolina 27.0 24.9 27.7
UAB UTEP 16.1 13.1 17.8
Auburn Alabama -7.3 -5.9 -6.0
Florida Florida St. -8.9 -8.4 -7.9
Hawaii BYU -3.4 -2.2 -3.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Retro Rankings

Based on what the teams have done for the entire season and not forward looking

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Miami (Fla)
3 Clemson
4 Wisconsin
5 Oklahoma
6 Georgia
7 Ohio St.
8 Central Florida
9 Notre Dame
10 Penn St.
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 TCU
14 Washington
15 Mississippi St.
16 Virginia Tech
17 Washington St.
18 Michigan
19 Oklahoma St.
20 Memphis
21 Michigan St.
22 Stanford
23 Northwestern
24 North Carolina St.
25 Boise St.
26 LSU
27 Wake Forest
28 Iowa St.
29 Iowa
30 South Florida
31 South Carolina
32 Boston College
33 Texas A&M
34 Louisville
35 Toledo
36 San Diego St.
37 Texas
38 Florida Atlantic
39 Oregon
40 Georgia Tech
41 West Virginia
42 Arizona
43 Navy
44 Florida St.
45 Arizona St.
46 Purdue
47 Kentucky
48 Northern Illinois
49 Missouri
50 Fresno St.
51 Kansas St.
52 Indiana
53 UCLA
54 Troy
55 Houston
56 Army
57 Ohio
58 Texas Tech
59 Virginia
60 SMU
61 Utah
62 California
63 North Texas
64 Duke
65 Florida
66 Wyoming
67 Syracuse
68 Maryland
69 Minnesota
70 Marshall
71 Ole Miss
72 Colorado
73 Western Michigan
74 Nebraska
75 Colorado St.
76 Central Michigan
77 Tulane
78 Pittsburgh
79 Utah St.
80 Arkansas St.
81 Temple
82 Tennessee
83 Akron
84 Arkansas
85 Southern Miss.
86 Florida Int’l.
87 Appalachian St.
88 North Carolina
89 Rutgers
90 UAB
91 Vanderbilt
92 UTSA
93 Georgia St.
94 Eastern Michigan
95 Buffalo
96 Air Force
97 Western Kentucky
98 Louisiana Tech
99 Middle Tennessee
100 Miami (O)
101 UNLV
102 Tulsa
103 Cincinnati
104 Connecticut
105 East Carolina
106 Massachusetts
107 Old Dominion
108 UL-Monroe
109 UL-Lafayette
110 New Mexico St.
111 Baylor
112 South Alabama
113 Illinois
114 BYU
115 Nevada
116 New Mexico
117 Idaho
118 Oregon St.
119 Bowling Green
120 Hawaii
121 Kent St.
122 Kansas
123 Coastal Carolina
124 Georgia Southern
125 Ball St.
126 Rice
127 Charlotte
128 Texas St.
129 San Jose St.
130 UTEP

PiRate Ratings For This Week

Forward Looking Predictive Ratings totally unrelated to rankings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
2 Ohio St. 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
3 Auburn 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
4 Clemson 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
5 Georgia 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
6 Oklahoma 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
7 Penn St. 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
8 Miami 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
9 Washington 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
10 Wisconsin 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
11 Oklahoma St. 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
12 T C U 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
13 U S C 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
14 Stanford 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
15 Virginia Tech 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
16 L S U 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
17 Notre Dame 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
18 Florida St. 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
19 N. Carolina St. 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
20 Louisville 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
21 Michigan 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
22 Central Florida 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
23 Washington St. 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
24 Mississippi St. 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
25 Texas 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
26 Northwestern 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
27 Wake Forest 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
28 Iowa State 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
29 Kansas St. 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
30 Iowa 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
31 Georgia Tech 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
32 Memphis 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
33 West Virginia 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
34 Boston College 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
35 Missouri 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
36 South Florida 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
37 Texas A&M 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
38 Duke 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
39 S. Carolina 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
40 Oregon 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
41 Kentucky 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
42 Boise St. 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
43 Arizona 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
44 Indiana 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
45 Utah 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
46 Arizona St. 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
47 Florida 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
48 Pittsburgh 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
49 Michigan St. 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
50 Colorado 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
51 Purdue 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
52 Syracuse 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
53 California 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
54 Ole Miss 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
55 U C L A 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
56 Texas Tech 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
57 Virginia 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
58 San Diego St. 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
59 Toledo 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
60 N. Carolina 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
61 Houston 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
62 Minnesota 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
63 Navy 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
64 Colo. State 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
65 Florida Atlantic 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
66 Army 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
67 Tennessee 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
68 Ohio U 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
69 Wyoming 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
70 Nebraska 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
71 Baylor 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
72 Maryland 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
73 Arkansas 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
74 SMU 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
75 Vanderbilt 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
76 Western Michigan 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
77 Fresno St. 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
78 Northern Illinois 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
79 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
80 Tulsa 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
81 Troy 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
82 Central Michigan 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
83 Arkansas St. 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
84 Utah St. 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
85 Tulane 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
86 Temple 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
87 Oregon St. 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
88 Rutgers 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
89 Appalachian St. 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
90 Marshall 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
91 Air Force 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
92 W. Kentucky 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
93 Massachusetts 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
94 U T S A 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
95 Miami (O) 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
96 Nevada 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
97 Illinois 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
98 BYU 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
99 Akron 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
100 N. Texas 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
101 Middle Tennessee 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
102 Southern Miss. 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
103 Buffalo 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
104 U N L V 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
105 Louisiana Tech 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
106 East Carolina 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
107 N. Mexico St. 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
108 Florida Int’l. 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
109 Connecticut 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
110 Cincinnati 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
111 New Mexico 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
112 UL-Lafayette 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
113 Georgia St. 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
114 Old Dominion 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
115 UL-Monroe 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
116 Kansas 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
117 Hawaii 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
118 UAB 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
119 S. Alabama 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
120 Bowling Green 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
121 Idaho 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
122 Georgia Southern 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
123 Kent St. 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
124 Texas St. 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
125 Rice 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
126 Coastal Carolina 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
127 Charlotte 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
128 San Jose St. 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
129 U T E P 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
130 Ball St. 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 7-0 10-0 113.8 115.0 115.1 114.6
South Florida 6-1 9-1 109.0 108.2 109.3 108.8
Temple 3-4 5-6 93.8 94.5 94.0 94.1
East Carolina 2-5 3-8 86.0 87.3 86.1 86.5
Connecticut 2-5 3-8 84.4 86.2 84.6 85.1
Cincinnati 1-6 3-8 84.0 85.8 84.8 84.9
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 6-1 9-1 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.0
Houston 4-3 6-4 101.9 101.7 101.9 101.8
Navy 4-3 6-4 100.7 101.2 101.0 100.9
SMU 3-4 6-5 97.8 98.3 98.1 98.1
Tulsa 1-6 2-9 95.9 95.4 95.7 95.7
Tulane 3-4 5-6 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.1
             
AAC Averages     97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 7-1 10-1 128.6 126.1 128.1 127.6
Florida St. 3-5 4-6 116.7 115.8 115.2 115.9
N. Carolina St. 5-2 7-4 115.9 115.1 115.7 115.6
Louisville 4-4 7-4 115.8 114.9 115.6 115.4
Wake Forest 4-3 7-4 113.5 111.6 113.7 112.9
Boston College 3-4 6-5 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.6
Syracuse 2-5 4-7 105.1 103.6 104.4 104.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 7-0 10-0 125.4 123.7 124.6 124.6
Virginia Tech 4-3 8-3 118.8 118.2 118.6 118.5
Georgia Tech 4-4 5-5 111.9 109.8 110.5 110.7
Duke 2-5 5-6 109.1 108.3 108.1 108.5
Pittsburgh 2-5 4-7 106.1 105.8 105.8 105.9
Virginia 3-4 6-5 103.0 102.0 103.3 102.8
N. Carolina 1-6 3-8 102.9 102.0 102.0 102.3
             
ACC Averages     113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 7-1 10-1 125.1 123.9 125.9 125.0
Oklahoma St. 5-3 8-3 120.6 119.9 121.0 120.5
T C U 6-2 9-2 119.8 118.1 120.1 119.3
Texas 5-3 6-5 113.9 114.0 114.6 114.2
Iowa State 5-3 7-4 112.5 112.6 113.5 112.9
Kansas St. 4-4 6-5 111.8 111.8 111.8 111.8
West Virginia 5-3 7-4 109.6 110.1 109.9 109.9
Texas Tech 2-6 5-6 103.4 103.3 102.9 103.2
Baylor 1-7 1-10 98.1 99.4 98.2 98.6
Kansas 0-8 1-10 81.8 85.1 80.5 82.5
             
Big 12 Averages     109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 7-1 9-2 132.2 129.9 132.6 131.6
Penn St. 6-2 9-2 125.2 124.1 125.5 124.9
Michigan 5-3 8-3 115.6 115.5 114.8 115.3
Indiana 2-6 5-6 106.3 106.3 106.8 106.5
Michigan St. 6-2 8-3 104.9 105.8 105.9 105.5
Maryland 2-6 4-7 98.3 99.6 97.7 98.5
Rutgers 3-5 4-7 93.7 93.4 93.4 93.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 8-0 11-0 124.2 121.7 123.1 123.0
Northwestern 6-2 8-3 114.0 112.9 114.0 113.6
Iowa 3-5 6-5 110.9 111.2 110.1 110.8
Purdue 3-5 5-6 104.6 104.6 105.0 104.7
Minnesota 2-6 5-6 101.8 102.7 100.9 101.8
Nebraska 3-5 4-7 98.6 99.1 98.1 98.6
Illinois 0-8 2-9 89.5 90.5 88.5 89.5
             
Big Ten Averages     108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Florida Atlantic 7-0 8-3 99.3 101.0 101.0 100.4
Marshall 4-3 7-4 91.7 93.0 93.3 92.7
W. Kentucky 4-3 6-5 90.4 90.6 91.1 90.7
Middle Tennessee 3-4 5-6 86.6 87.7 87.6 87.3
Florida Int’l. 4-3 6-4 84.7 85.4 85.3 85.2
Old Dominion 3-4 5-6 82.6 85.0 82.9 83.5
Charlotte 1-6 1-10 69.2 71.5 69.4 70.0
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 3-4 6-4 89.2 91.4 90.2 90.2
N. Texas 6-1 8-3 87.5 88.8 88.4 88.2
Southern Miss. 5-2 7-4 86.7 87.8 87.2 87.2
Louisiana Tech 3-4 5-6 86.0 87.8 86.6 86.8
UAB 5-2 7-4 81.3 81.2 83.1 81.9
Rice 1-6 1-10 72.8 74.2 73.2 73.4
U T E P 0-7 0-11 68.2 71.1 68.3 69.2
             
CUSA Averages     84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   9-2 117.3 116.2 117.6 117.0
Army   8-3 99.5 99.5 99.8 99.6
Massachusetts   4-7 90.5 89.7 90.8 90.3
BYU   3-9 89.6 89.5 89.3 89.4
             
Indep. Averages     99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 5-2 8-3 98.0 99.4 98.9 98.8
Miami (O) 3-4 4-7 88.7 90.7 89.9 89.8
Akron 5-2 6-5 87.9 90.0 88.6 88.8
Buffalo 3-4 5-6 85.6 87.8 87.5 87.0
Bowling Green 2-5 2-9 80.5 81.6 80.8 81.0
Kent St. 1-6 2-9 73.7 75.2 74.0 74.3
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-1 9-2 101.9 101.9 103.7 102.5
Western Michigan 4-3 6-5 97.5 96.7 98.4 97.5
Northern Illinois 6-1 8-3 96.1 95.9 97.2 96.4
Eastern Michigan 2-5 4-7 95.7 95.8 96.1 95.9
Central Michigan 5-2 7-4 94.7 95.1 95.5 95.1
Ball St. 0-7 2-9 65.7 67.7 66.4 66.6
             
MAC Averages     88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 7-0 9-2 107.9 106.4 108.3 107.5
Colo. State 5-3 7-5 101.3 100.3 101.1 100.9
Wyoming 5-2 7-4 99.3 98.2 98.6 98.7
Utah St. 4-3 6-5 95.3 94.4 95.1 94.9
Air Force 3-4 4-7 91.9 92.4 91.8 92.0
New Mexico 1-6 3-8 84.6 84.5 85.1 84.7
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 5-2 9-2 102.2 102.2 103.3 102.6
Fresno St. 6-1 8-3 96.7 95.7 97.3 96.6
Nevada 2-5 2-9 88.7 90.4 89.8 89.6
U N L V 4-3 5-6 86.4 87.8 86.5 86.9
Hawaii 1-7 3-8 82.2 83.3 81.7 82.4
San Jose St. 0-7 1-11 69.5 69.8 68.6 69.3
             
MWC Averages     92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 6-2 9-2 125.0 122.9 124.9 124.3
Stanford 7-2 8-3 119.6 118.0 118.8 118.8
Washington St. 6-2 9-2 115.2 113.0 114.8 114.3
Oregon 3-5 6-5 108.7 106.7 108.0 107.8
California 2-6 5-6 105.4 103.2 103.8 104.1
Oregon St. 0-8 1-10 94.1 93.9 92.6 93.5
             
South Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 8-1 10-2 119.4 118.6 119.0 119.0
Arizona 5-3 7-4 107.3 105.9 106.3 106.5
Utah 2-6 5-6 106.2 106.6 106.2 106.3
Arizona St. 5-3 6-5 106.5 105.5 106.1 106.0
Colorado 2-6 5-6 106.5 105.1 104.5 105.3
U C L A 3-5 5-6 104.0 103.3 103.5 103.6
             
Pac-12 Averages     109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 7-1 10-1 126.2 126.1 126.5 126.3
Missouri 3-4 6-5 109.7 107.8 109.1 108.9
S. Carolina 5-3 8-3 108.9 107.9 108.1 108.3
Kentucky 4-4 7-4 108.3 107.5 107.0 107.6
Florida 3-5 4-6 106.3 105.9 105.8 106.0
Tennessee 0-7 4-7 99.9 98.3 98.1 98.8
Vanderbilt 0-7 4-7 98.5 97.7 97.2 97.8
             
West Division            
Team SEC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 7-0 11-0 137.9 134.3 136.7 136.3
Auburn 6-1 9-2 128.5 126.4 128.8 127.9
L S U 5-2 8-3 117.7 115.5 118.0 117.1
Mississippi St. 4-3 8-3 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.3
Texas A&M 4-3 7-4 109.5 107.4 108.8 108.6
Ole Miss 2-5 5-6 104.7 103.4 103.5 103.9
Arkansas 1-6 4-7 98.8 98.1 98.5 98.5
             
SEC Averages     112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team SBC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Troy 5-1 8-2 95.5 95.7 95.1 95.4
Arkansas St. 5-1 6-3 94.3 95.5 95.5 95.1
Appalachian St. 5-1 6-4 93.6 92.4 93.4 93.1
N. Mexico St. 2-4 4-6 85.9 84.7 86.0 85.5
UL-Lafayette 4-2 5-5 84.0 84.9 84.0 84.3
Georgia St. 5-1 6-3 84.3 84.1 84.3 84.3
UL-Monroe 4-3 4-6 83.0 83.8 82.2 83.0
S. Alabama 3-4 4-7 80.7 82.7 80.9 81.4
Idaho 2-4 3-7 79.1 80.2 79.9 79.7
Georgia Southern 1-5 1-9 78.6 80.0 78.0 78.9
Texas St. 1-6 2-9 73.6 75.7 72.9 74.1
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2-9 72.4 73.8 73.1 73.1
             
Sun Belt Averages     83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Conference Ratings

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 ACC 113.0 111.9 112.5 112.5
2 SEC 112.1 110.8 111.5 111.4
3 BIG 12 109.7 109.8 109.9 109.8
4 PAC-12 109.8 108.5 109.0 109.1
5 BIG TEN 108.6 108.4 108.3 108.4
6 INDEP. 99.2 98.7 99.4 99.1
7 AAC 97.6 98.1 98.0 97.9
8 MWC 92.2 92.1 92.3 92.2
9 MAC 88.8 89.8 89.7 89.5
10 CUSA 84.0 85.5 84.8 84.8
11 Sun Belt 83.8 84.5 83.8 84.0

Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC La. Tech UL-Lafayette
Cure AAC SBC Houston Troy
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 Boise St. Stanford
New Mexico CUSA MWC North Texas Colorado St.
Camellia MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA South Florida Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Ohio U
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Utah St.] Marshall
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Florida Int’l. Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Central Mich. Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 [UAB] [UNLV]
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 ARMY [Middle Tenn.]
Dollar General MAC SBC Akron Appalachian St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Central Florida San Diego St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [UCLA] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 [Utah] [Western Mich.]
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 Kansas St. Arizona
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Florida St. [Western Ky.]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Boston College Iowa
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 [Southern Miss.] Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 Texas Missouri
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 Navy Virginia
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Iowa St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Michigan Washington
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Oklahoma St. Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Wake Forest South Carolina
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 Louisville Arizona St.
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Indiana Kentucky
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Ohio St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 NC St. Miss. St.
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 West Virginia Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Penn St. USC
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Notre Dame
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan St. LSU
Peach At-large At-large Memphis TCU
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Northwestern Auburn
Rose Playoff Semi-final Miami (Fla.) Oklahoma
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Alabama Wisconsin
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama Oklahoma
         
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Championship Games and Bowl Eligibles By Conference

If you are a fan of a team that will finish 5-6 or 5-7, you can forget your team playing in a bowl with a losing record this season.  In fact, we project two bowl eligible teams to miss out on all the fun this year, as we project 80 teams to be bowl eligible this season.

American Athletic

The UCF-USF winner this week will face Memphis for the conference championship.  It looks like UCF and Memphis will meet in Orlando in a rematch game.  UCF won the first one convincingly, but Memphis is several points better now than then.  The winner of this game almost assuredly plays in the New Year’s Six Bowl as the Group of 5 Representative, and it will more than likely be at the Peach Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (UCF, USF, Memphis, Navy, Houston, SMU)

5-Wins: Temple and Tulane

Temple must win at Tulsa, which is doable but less than 50-50.

Tulane must win at SMU, which is also doable but less than 50-50 and less then Temple’s chances.

Atlantic Coast 

Clemson will play Miami (Fla.) in Charlotte.  The winner has about a 92% chance of gaining a Playoff spot, while the loser will most likely get an Orange Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (Clemson, Wake Forest, Louisville, NC St., Boston College, Miami, Va. Tech, Virginia

5-Wins: Georgia Tech and Duke

Georgia Tech would have to pull off the monumental upset of Georgia, which they may have about a 3-5% chance of doing.

Duke must win at Wake Forest, and the Demon Deacons are playing like a top 20 team.  The Blue Devils beat Georgia Tech, so they could be peaking at the right time.

4-Wins: Florida St.

The Seminoles were able to reschedule their cancelled hurricane game with UL-Monroe, and now they can become bowl eligible by beating Florida and ULM.  We believe their chances to get to 6-6 are about 70-75% in their favor.

Big 12

Oklahoma has clinched the top seed in the renewal of the Big 12 Championship Game.  TCU needs to beat Baylor this week to get the number two seed.  If the Horn Frogs croak against the Bears, then Oklahoma St. will get the bid with a win over hapless Kansas.  There is a very remote chance that Iowa St. could still get in, but it would require too many things to take place.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (Oklahoma, TCU, Okla. St., Iowa St., Texas, West Virginia, Kansas St.)

5-Wins: Texas Tech

Texas Tech closes the season at Texas, and we believe the Longhorns will handle the Red Raiders and most likely end the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock.

Big Ten

Wisconsin and Ohio State have clinched their divisions and will face off in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Badgers’ defense may be up to the task to handle an inconsistent Buckeye offense.  If so, UW is Playoff-bound.  A Buckeye win opens the door for a one-loss Miami or one-loss Alabama team to get this bid, or if Miami and Alabama are unbeaten, there will be a big controversy over the #4 seed between a 2-loss Ohio State, Georgia, USC, and Notre Dame, and maybe even an undefeated UCF if they win their last two games.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 8) (Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa)

5-Wins: Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota.

Indiana and Purdue play for the Old Oaken Bucket and a bowl bid, as the winner will be 6-6.

Minnesota must beat undefeated Wisconsin to finish 6-6.  With the Gophers’ offense struggling, and the Badgers defense peaking, UW could win this won in an ugly fashion in the neighborhood of 20-6.

Conference USA

This conference is going to strike it rich this bowl season with a possible 10 teams playing in December.

First, Florida Atlantic and North Texas will square off in one of the potentially best championship games in this league’s history.  Win or lose, we are hearing from sources that the Boca Raton Bowl would love to invite hometown team FAU.

Bowl Eligible: 8 (guaranteed to have 9) (Florida Atlantic, Florida Int’l., Marshall, Western Kentucky, North Texas, UAB, Southern Miss, UTSA)

5-Wins: Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion play each other in Murfreesboro this week, so the winner will become bowl eligible.

Louisiana Tech hosts UTSA with a slumping offense, and we give the Bulldogs a 70% chance of winning this game and becoming the 10th bowl eligible CUSA team.  There will be slots available possibly for all 10 teams, and it is possible that two CUSA could face off in a bowl.

Independents

Army is 8-3 with the Navy game remaining.  The Black Knights are Armed Forces Bowl bound.

Notre Dame actually counts with the ACC teams, so they are part of the ACC package, and we believe the Irish will  be enjoying Oranges this year, but only if they get by Stanford this week,.

Mid-American

Akron beat Ohio to win the Eastern Division title.  The Zips will play Toledo or Northern Illinois.  TU can clinch the Western Division title with a win at home against Western Michigan or a Northern Illinois loss at Central Michigan.  NIU can win if they beat CMU and WMU beats Toledo.

This league will receive an extra bid and possibly two extra bids.  See Below

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Akron, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan)

5-Wins: Buffalo

Buffalo hosts Ohio U this week, and a Bulls win will give them a 6-6 record.  There is a catch.  Buffalo most likely needs Louisiana Tech or Florida State to lose this week to guarantee a decent shot at a bowl.  We have the Bulls as team #79 in a 78-team bowl field.  There is another little possibility that could help Buffalo get over the top ahead of another bowl eligible team.  The MAC has two secondary bowl agreements, with the Quick Lane and the Foster Farms bowls.

Toledo at 10-2 might be attractive enough for the Foster Farms Bowl to invite the Rockets west to face Oregon, Stanford, Washington, or California.  The Quick Lane is most likely going to need a MAC team as well, so Buffalo could sneak in to a bowl through this back door ahead of a 10th CUSA team.

Mountain West

Here is where a conference championship game will not be as exciting as it should be, unless something really interesting takes place this week.  Boise State and Fresno State have clinched berths in the MWC Championship Game, but the two teams close out the regular season facing each other, so it will be an immediate rematch.  The Las Vegas Bowl bid goes to the winner of the second game.  Even if the Conference Champion loses by 50 points this week and wins by 1 next week, that team gets the Las Vegas Bowl bid.

Bowl Eligible: 6 (Boise St., Colorado St., Wyoming, Utah St., Fresno St., San Diego St.)

5-Wins: UNLV

The Runnin’ Rebels must win their rivalry game against Nevada, and they must do it in Reno.  UNLV has about a 50-50 shot at pulling it off, giving the MWC 7 bowl teams for 5 bowls.  Two at-large slots will be waiting for the 6th and 7th teams.

Pac-12

USC has clinched the South Division, and the Trojans hold a very minute chance of sneaking into the Playoffs.  More than likely, they are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game for a berth in the Fiesta Bowl.

The North Division is still up for grabs between Washington State and Stanford.  If Washington State wins the Apple Cup, then the Pirate Mike Leach will have his team in the Championship Game.  If Washington wins, then Stanford takes the treasure away from the Pirate.

The bigger news in the Pac-12 is the firing of UCLA coach Jim Mora, Jr.  The Bruins still have a game to go at home against California, and the winner will be bowl eligible.  UCLA is actually hoping it can win the Chip Kelly Bowl.  Kelly is rumored to be headed to Westwood, but it is not confirmed.

Bowl Eligible: 7 (but guaranteed to have 9) (Washington St., Stanford, Washington, Oregon, USC, Arizona St., Arizona)

5-Win Teams: California, UCLA, Utah, Colorado

Cal plays at UCLA, and the Bears hope they can swim with the Fisch’s.  Jedd Fisch will be UCLA coach for one or two games.

Colorado visits Utah, so the winner of that game will also be bowl eligible.

Look for the Pac-12 to place 2 at-large teams in bowls back east, most likely the two winners this week.

Southeastern

Normally a league with double digit bowl participants, the SEC is only going to have 9 teams playing in the postseason.

Georgia is waiting for the winner of the Iron Bowl to face off in the SEC Championship Game.  Auburn has become the sexy choice to knock off the number one Crimson Tide, but us old Buccaneers believe this just won’t happen.  We have Alabama set to be the top seed in the Playoffs, hosting team number four in the Sugar Bowl.

Bowl Eligible: 9 (Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi St., Texas A&M)

5-Wins: None

Sun Belt

They have 12 teams in this league, but there is no championship game in the SBC.  The Sun Belt is most likely to have extra teams, including team number 80, or the second bowl eligible team left out of all the fun.

There are two weeks left in the SBC regular season, so there are some 4-6 teams still alive in the bowl hunt.

Bowl Eligible: 4 (Troy, Georgia St., Arkansas St., Appalachian St.)

5-Wins: UL-Lafayette

The Ragin’ Cajuns have two games left and need to win just one to most likely get their New Orleans Bowl bid that they always seem to get whenever they are bowl eligible.  ULL hosts 1-9 Georgia Southern this week and should secure their sixth win.  They finish at Appy State, where they are most likely to lose.

4-Wins: UL-Monroe and New Mexico St.

UL-Monroe has less than 0.5% chance of beating Arkansas St. at home this week and then winning at Florida St. the week after.  So, the Warhawks are basically out of the picture.

New Mexico St. has at least a 50-50 chance of finishing the season with wins over Idaho and South Alabama, both games in Las Cruces.  However, the Aggies do not have a great shot at getting into their first bowl since the 1960 Sun Bowl.  NMSU is leaving the Sun Belt and will become an independent next year.  The SBC has a history of being a tad bush league by shunning teams leaving their conference.  The Aggies have already told the league they can only accept bids to bowls close to home, and we believe they will get to spend the holidays very close to home, because they will not be invited to a bowl if they finish 6-6.  Of course, if two from Louisiana Tech, Buffalo, and Florida State lose, and if Duke loses to Wake Forest and Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, then the Aggies will get an invitation at 6-6.  Whether or not they accept it, we cannot predict.

We here at the PiRate Ratings hope you have a festive Thanksgiving holiday.  Don’t let your tummy be the biggest loser this week.  Pace yourself and try to get some exercise.

Our schedule will be a little different this week.  We are putting out our Monday edition today on Sunday.  We will have both the NFL ratings and Money Line picks on Tuesday, and then we will return next Sunday night or Monday morning.

Thank You to all our followers.  You have made 2017 a record year for PiRate Rating readership.  A lot of you came on board back during March Madness, because we were very lucky to successfully pick all 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament.  Our basketball coverage will return just after New Year’s, as our ratings need all the teams to play 8 games before they make any sense.

 

October 19, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for October 19-21, 2017

The Captain has been shanghaied by the lasses.  After a couple weeks of total failure, the Captain handed over the controls of the PiRate Ship to us ladies, because, as he said, “Hey, you cannot do any worse than me.”

Actually, the Captain is enjoying the fruits of his labors as a baseball analytics specialist, and the thoughts of having the first Yankees-Dodgers World Series in 36 years (and as he stated, first legit season in 39 years) has sent him ahoy to dry land for the weekend.

Every week, the Captain prefaces this edition with the warning that you should not actually wager real money, or what goes for real money, on our parlay selections.  Readers, today, this edition of picks comes 100% from five women.

What can women know about football?  As the Captain says, if playing or coaching football made the men involved total experts, they would have all retired a long time ago and made even more money draining the sports books.  It just doesn’t happen.  Actually, the top experts are usually some professor at Cal Tech or MIT with a long computer program that spits out teams that when wagered on, return profits about 5 out of 8 times.

I am here to tell you that the 5 women contributing to this submission today probably have more actual football experience than the Cal Tech and MIT professors.  It may have been from Powder Puff College Football playing with Tri-Delt or Delta Gamma, but we know the game.

That doesn’t mean we know anything about picking winners, so be forewarned.  We went on intuition and other feminine instincts, and we came up with four parlays.  The only advice we received from the Captain was that we should limit our parlays to a max of 4 games, and the parlay calculator had to return a value better than +120.  We did both.

As for last week, need you ask?  The Captain issued just two parlays, and both lost.  For the season his return is -30%.  If we win this week, we just might mutiny and take over control of our vessel.

#1 @ +142  
Must Win Must Lose
Northwestern Iowa
Minnesota Illinois
#2 @ +169  
Must Win Must Lose
Arkansas St. UL-Lafayette
Notre Dame USC
LSU Ole Miss
#3 @ +127  
Must Win Must Lose
Houston Memphis
Penn St. Michigan
#4 @ +132  
Must Win Must Lose
UAB Charlotte
Purdue Rutgers
Duke Pittsburgh

Good luck.  You’ll need it if you play our parlays.  Shame on you if you wager the paper that they say is real money on these selections.  If you want to gift away $400, you can send it to my Patreon page.

October 16, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for October 19-21, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:52 am

This week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Arkansas St. Louisiana-Lafayette 9.0 8.7 10.4
Houston Memphis 0.4 0.6 0.1
Old Dominion Western Kentucky -8.3 -5.2 -9.3
Middle Tennessee Marshall -1.8 -2.2 -3.0
Nevada Air Force -2.8 -1.4 -1.4
New Mexico Colorado St. -12.0 -11.0 -11.5
Army Temple 8.3 7.8 9.1
Wisconsin Maryland 24.0 18.8 22.7
Texas Tech Iowa St. 0.7 -0.1 -1.0
Toledo Akron 15.0 12.3 15.4
Missouri Idaho 16.4 12.4 14.6
Northwestern Iowa 4.2 2.4 4.6
Connecticut Tulsa -11.3 -8.5 -10.9
Florida St. Louisville 13.9 13.3 13.1
Rutgers Purdue -6.2 -5.9 -7.4
Duke Pittsburgh 7.3 5.9 6.8
Virginia Boston College 6.3 5.6 7.0
Georgia St. Troy -5.0 -5.9 -4.3
Eastern Michigan Western Michigan -0.7 0.0 -1.6
Ohio U Kent St. 14.1 14.2 14.5
Bowling Green Northern Illinois -5.6 -4.4 -5.4
Miami (O) Buffalo 7.3 6.8 6.2
Ball St. Central Michigan -12.4 -11.0 -11.7
Minnesota Illinois 19.7 19.1 20.7
Virginia Tech North Carolina 18.4 18.7 20.0
Michigan St. Indiana 1.5 3.5 1.6
Alabama Tennessee 37.4 34.7 38.2
Appalachian St. Coastal Carolina 30.8 27.5 29.5
Navy Central Florida -11.4 -12.6 -12.5
Miami (Fla.) Syracuse 13.7 13.3 13.9
Massachusetts Georgia Southern 10.5 8.3 10.9
Utah Arizona St. 4.4 7.0 4.9
Kansas St. Oklahoma -6.6 -5.6 -7.0
TCU Kansas 42.5 37.0 44.1
Texas Oklahoma St. -7.9 -6.1 -8.5
UCLA Oregon 0.1 2.1 0.5
Cincinnati SMU -9.3 -7.2 -8.5
Mississippi St. Kentucky -0.3 1.4 0.6
South Alabama Louisiana-Monroe 8.0 9.8 9.2
Florida Atlantic North Texas 8.7 10.0 9.3
UNLV Utah St. -3.1 0.0 -2.4
Charlotte UAB 1.7 0.5 -0.2
Tulane South Florida -14.1 -12.5 -14.8
UTSA Rice 19.8 20.7 21.2
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 3.6 4.0 4.2
East Carolina BYU -9.0 -6.7 -9.0
Ole Miss LSU -6.3 -6.1 -8.6
Arkansas Auburn -18.6 -17.2 -19.1
Georgia Tech Wake Forest 11.7 10.6 10.5
Penn St. Michigan 18.2 15.9 19.9
Notre Dame USC 2.3 1.5 3.2
Baylor West Virginia -8.3 -7.0 -8.7
California Arizona 3.9 2.7 3.3
Boise St. Wyoming 11.3 10.9 12.4
San Diego St. Fresno St. 9.4 11.0 9.7
Washington St. Colorado 10.7 9.8 12.6

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

Retrodictive Ratings–Ranks the teams based on what they have done to date.  This rating is better to gauge what the teams have done so far rather than how they might fare going forward.

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team Rating
1 Alabama 132.7
2 Penn St. 130.8
3 Georgia 130.6
4 TCU 129.3
5 Clemson 128.7
6 Ohio St. 128.5
7 Wisconsin 127.9
8 Miami (Fla) 127.0
9 Notre Dame 126.7
10 USC 126.4
11 Central Florida 126.2
12 Washington 125.8
13 Oklahoma St. 125.1
14 Oklahoma 124.9
15 Stanford 124.2
16 Michigan St. 123.7
17 Michigan 123.3
18 North Carolina St. 123.0
19 Washington St. 122.2
20 Virginia Tech 121.6
21 South Florida 121.5
22 Texas A&M 121.2
23 Auburn 120.8
24 Iowa 119.9
25 San Diego St. 119.4
26 Mississippi St. 118.9
27 Florida St. 118.8
28 Memphis 118.6
29 Wake Forest 117.3
30 Texas Tech 116.8
31 West Virginia 116.4
32 LSU 116.3
33 Kentucky 116.1
34 Boise St. 115.9
35 Navy 115.2
36 South Carolina 114.7
37 Virginia 113.8
38 Toledo 113.1
39 Iowa St. 112.0
40 Utah 110.9
41 Oregon 110.5
42 California 110.1
43 Texas 110.0
44 Arizona St. 109.8
45 Georgia Tech 109.5
46 Florida 109.2
47 Louisville 108.7
48 Arizona 108.5
49 Purdue 107.7
50 Northwestern 107.4
51 Houston 106.9
52 Duke 106.3
53 Colorado St. 105.8
54 Indiana 104.6
55 Syracuse 103.9
56 UCLA 103.4
57 Marshall 103.2
58 Western Michigan 103.1
59 Fresno St. 103.0
60 Colorado 102.8
61 Minnesota 102.1
62 SMU 101.8
63 Maryland 101.6
64 Northern Illinois 101.5
65 Boston College 100.9
66 Appalachian St. 100.4
67 Troy 100.0
68 Kansas St. 99.7
69 Army 98.6
70 Ole Miss 97.2
71 North Texas 97.1
72 Tennessee 96.7
73 Nebraska 96.4
74 Louisiana Tech 96.3
75 Vanderbilt 95.6
76 Southern Miss. 95.2
77 Florida Atlantic 95.0
78 Tulane 94.8
79 Akron 94.6
80 Wyoming 94.5
81 Arkansas 92.9
82 Ohio 92.8
83 Western Kentucky 92.6
84 Air Force 92.0
85 Arkansas St. 91.8
86 Tulsa 91.7
87 Pittsburgh 91.3
88 New Mexico 91.1
89 UTSA 90.7
90 Temple 90.2
91 Utah St. 89.9
92 North Carolina 89.5
93 Buffalo 89.3
94 Florida Int’l. 88.7
95 UAB 88.1
96 Middle Tennessee 87.0
97 Cincinnati 85.7
98 Rutgers 85.1
99 New Mexico St. 84.2
100 Eastern Michigan 83.9
101 UL-Monroe 83.6
102 Georgia St. 83.4
103 UL-Lafayette 81.9
104 Illinois 81.2
105 UNLV 81.0
106 Central Michigan 80.7
107 Miami (O) 80.5
108 Baylor 80.4
109 Missouri 80.4
110 South Alabama 80.3
111 Oregon St. 79.9
112 Hawaii 79.7
113 BYU 79.6
114 Connecticut 79.5
115 Idaho 79.4
116 Nevada 78.9
117 Kent St. 78.7
118 Old Dominion 78.1
119 East Carolina 77.8
120 Bowling Green 77.5
121 Ball St. 77.0
122 Kansas 76.2
123 Rice 75.7
124 Georgia Southern 75.3
125 Massachusetts 75.1
126 Coastal Carolina 74.6
127 San Jose St. 74.2
128 UTEP 73.5
129 Texas St. 72.6
130 Charlotte 71.9

Predictive Ratings–This rating is a forward-looking rating trying to predict the outcome of future games.  Unlike other predictive ratings, ours are geared toward only each teams’ next game, because we adjust our ratings based on many factors that cannot be reflected just from the score of the games.  A team that is predicted to win by 14 points that wins by exactly 14 points might be expected to retain an identical rating the following week, but we adjust for things like depth, how the score became a 14-point victory, how the teams’ past opponents fared during the week (more weight given to recent games than early games), etc.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 138.7 134.4 137.5 136.9
2 Ohio St. 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
3 Penn St. 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
4 Washington 127.0 124.3 127.4 126.2
5 Clemson 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
6 Georgia 125.5 125.9 125.9 125.8
7 Oklahoma St. 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
8 Auburn 124.7 122.7 124.7 124.0
9 Florida St. 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
10 Oklahoma 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
11 Miami 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
12 Wisconsin 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
13 Stanford 120.9 119.5 120.3 120.2
14 T C U 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
15 U S C 119.1 118.4 118.9 118.8
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
17 N. Carolina St. 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
18 Notre Dame 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
19 Washington St. 116.3 113.8 115.9 115.3
20 Georgia Tech 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
21 L S U 114.8 113.0 115.4 114.4
22 Texas 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
23 Central Florida 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
24 Michigan 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
25 Florida 113.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
26 South Florida 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
27 Kansas St. 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
28 Louisville 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
29 Northwestern 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
30 Kentucky 111.2 110.0 110.5 110.6
31 West Virginia 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
32 Syracuse 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
33 Iowa 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
34 Iowa State 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
35 Texas A&M 109.5 107.2 108.8 108.5
36 Mississippi St. 107.9 108.5 108.1 108.2
37 S. Carolina 108.1 107.1 107.2 107.5
38 Utah 106.7 108.3 106.9 107.3
39 Colorado 108.6 107.0 106.3 107.3
40 Duke 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
41 Wake Forest 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
42 Oregon 107.8 105.4 106.7 106.6
43 Texas Tech 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
44 Colo. State 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
45 Indiana 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
46 Virginia 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
47 Arizona St. 105.3 104.3 105.0 104.9
48 Minnesota 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
49 U C L A 105.0 104.5 104.2 104.6
50 California 105.8 103.4 104.1 104.4
51 Michigan St. 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
52 Ole Miss 105.5 103.9 103.8 104.4
53 Arizona 104.9 103.7 103.8 104.1
54 Memphis 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
55 Purdue 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
56 Pittsburgh 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
57 Boise St. 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
58 Tennessee 104.3 102.7 102.3 103.1
59 Arkansas 103.2 102.5 102.5 102.8
60 N. Carolina 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
61 Boston College 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
62 Vanderbilt 102.3 101.5 101.0 101.6
63 Houston 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
64 Maryland 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
65 Navy 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
66 San Diego St. 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
67 Nebraska 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
68 Toledo 99.4 99.4 100.6 99.8
69 Baylor 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
70 Western Michigan 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
71 SMU 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
72 Army 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
73 Tulsa 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
74 Appalachian St. 98.1 96.2 98.2 97.5
75 Eastern Michigan 95.7 95.2 95.9 95.6
76 Missouri 96.6 94.3 95.5 95.5
77 Tulane 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
78 Wyoming 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
79 Rutgers 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
80 Fresno St. 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
81 U T S A 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
82 Troy 93.3 93.6 92.6 93.2
83 W. Kentucky 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
84 Florida Atlantic 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
85 Oregon St. 93.0 92.7 91.6 92.4
86 Marshall 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
87 Air Force 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
88 Temple 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
89 BYU 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
90 Arkansas St. 90.8 92.1 92.3 91.7
91 Utah St. 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
92 Ohio U 90.9 92.3 91.6 91.6
93 New Mexico 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
94 Northern Illinois 90.6 90.4 91.3 90.7
95 Miami (O) 89.6 91.6 90.8 90.7
96 Louisiana Tech 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
97 Central Michigan 88.9 89.7 89.4 89.3
98 Akron 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
99 N. Mexico St. 88.5 86.5 88.8 87.9
100 Illinois 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
101 Cincinnati 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
102 Southern Miss. 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
103 Middle Tennessee 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
104 Nevada 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
105 S. Alabama 86.5 89.0 86.8 87.4
106 U N L V 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
107 Buffalo 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
108 N. Texas 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
109 Hawaii 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
110 Georgia St. 85.8 85.2 85.8 85.6
111 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.3 84.9 85.4
112 Massachusetts 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
113 Connecticut 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
114 Idaho 83.2 84.9 84.0 84.0
115 Florida Int’l. 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
116 Old Dominion 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
117 Bowling Green 82.6 83.5 83.3 83.1
118 Kansas 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
119 UL-Monroe 81.0 81.7 80.0 80.9
120 East Carolina 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
121 Kent St. 79.2 80.7 79.6 79.8
122 Georgia Southern 77.5 79.1 77.1 77.9
123 San Jose St. 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
124 Rice 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
125 Ball St. 74.0 76.2 75.2 75.1
126 UAB 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
127 Charlotte 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
128 U T E P 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
129 Texas St. 70.4 72.8 69.2 70.8
130 Coastal Carolina 69.8 71.2 71.1 70.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Central Florida 3-0 5-0 112.9 114.3 114.3 113.9
South Florida 3-0 6-0 112.3 111.0 113.5 112.3
Temple 1-3 3-4 92.2 92.8 92.1 92.4
Cincinnati 0-3 2-5 86.7 88.9 87.9 87.8
Connecticut 1-3 2-4 84.1 86.7 84.2 85.0
East Carolina 1-3 1-6 79.6 81.5 79.2 80.1
             
West Division            
Team AAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 2-1 5-1 104.3 103.7 104.5 104.1
Houston 2-1 4-2 101.7 101.2 101.6 101.5
Navy 3-1 5-1 101.2 101.9 101.3 101.4
SMU 1-1 4-2 98.5 98.7 98.9 98.7
Tulsa 1-2 2-5 98.4 98.2 98.1 98.2
Tulane 1-1 3-3 95.2 95.4 95.7 95.4
             
AAC Averages     97.3 97.8 97.6 97.6
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 4-1 6-1 127.2 124.6 126.7 126.2
Florida St. 2-2 2-3 122.8 121.4 121.6 122.0
N. Carolina St. 4-0 6-1 118.1 117.4 118.2 117.9
Louisville 1-3 4-3 111.9 111.1 111.6 111.5
Syracuse 2-1 4-3 111.1 109.5 110.4 110.3
Wake Forest 1-2 4-2 107.7 106.3 107.5 107.1
Boston College 1-3 3-4 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.0
             
Coastal Division            
Team ACC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 3-0 5-0 121.9 119.8 121.3 121.0
Virginia Tech 1-1 5-1 118.9 118.3 119.2 118.8
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 116.4 113.9 115.0 115.1
Duke 1-3 4-3 108.0 106.9 106.8 107.2
Virginia 2-0 5-1 105.3 104.6 105.8 105.3
Pittsburgh 0-3 2-5 103.7 104.0 103.0 103.6
N. Carolina 0-4 1-6 103.4 102.6 102.2 102.7
             
ACC Averages     112.8 111.6 112.2 112.2
             
Big 12 Conference
Team B12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma St. 2-1 5-1 124.7 123.4 125.7 124.6
Oklahoma 2-1 5-1 121.9 120.8 122.3 121.7
T C U 3-0 6-0 120.8 118.4 121.3 120.1
Texas 2-1 3-3 113.7 114.3 114.2 114.1
Kansas St. 1-2 3-3 112.3 112.2 112.2 112.2
West Virginia 2-1 4-2 110.2 110.7 110.5 110.5
Iowa State 2-1 4-2 108.9 109.4 109.9 109.4
Texas Tech 1-2 4-2 106.6 106.3 105.9 106.3
Baylor 0-3 0-6 98.9 100.7 98.8 99.5
Kansas 0-3 1-5 81.2 84.4 80.2 82.0
             
Big 12 Averages     109.9 110.1 110.1 110.0
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 4-0 6-1 135.6 133.0 135.5 134.7
Penn St. 3-0 6-0 128.7 126.6 129.6 128.3
Michigan 2-1 5-1 114.0 114.2 113.2 113.8
Indiana 0-3 3-3 105.1 105.0 105.7 105.3
Michigan St. 3-0 5-1 103.6 105.4 104.3 104.4
Maryland 1-2 3-3 101.0 102.7 100.8 101.5
Rutgers 1-2 2-4 94.7 94.8 94.1 94.5
             
West Division            
Team BTen Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 3-0 6-0 121.9 118.5 120.5 120.3
Northwestern 1-2 3-3 111.3 109.6 111.4 110.8
Iowa 1-2 4-2 110.0 110.2 109.8 110.0
Minnesota 0-3 3-3 104.7 105.5 104.1 104.8
Purdue 1-2 3-3 103.9 103.7 104.5 104.0
Nebraska 2-2 3-4 100.5 101.6 99.4 100.5
Illinois 0-3 2-4 87.9 89.4 86.4 87.9
             
Big Ten Averages     108.8 108.6 108.5 108.6
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 2-1 4-2 92.6 92.1 93.7 92.8
Florida Atlantic 2-0 3-3 91.4 94.1 92.7 92.7
Marshall 2-0 5-1 91.3 92.7 93.1 92.4
Middle Tennessee 1-2 3-4 87.0 88.0 87.6 87.5
Florida Int’l. 2-1 4-2 83.5 83.8 84.3 83.9
Old Dominion 0-2 2-4 82.3 85.0 82.3 83.2
Charlotte 0-3 0-7 72.1 74.3 72.3 72.9
             
West Division            
Team CUSA Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 0-2 3-2 92.9 94.9 94.4 94.0
Louisiana Tech 1-1 3-3 88.7 90.3 89.6 89.6
Southern Miss. 2-1 4-2 87.1 88.4 87.5 87.6
N. Texas 3-0 4-2 85.7 87.1 86.3 86.4
Rice 1-1 1-5 75.1 76.2 75.2 75.5
U T E P 0-3 0-7 71.8 74.8 72.0 72.9
UAB 2-1 4-2 72.4 75.8 74.5 74.2
             
CUSA Averages     83.9 85.5 84.7 84.7
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   5-1 117.9 116.5 118.6 117.6
Army   5-2 98.1 98.1 98.7 98.3
BYU   1-6 92.1 91.7 91.7 91.8
Massachusetts   0-6 85.6 84.9 85.5 85.3
             
Indep. Averages     98.4 97.8 98.6 98.3
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio U 2-1 5-2 92.0 93.3 92.8 92.7
Miami (O) 1-2 2-5 88.2 90.3 89.3 89.3
Akron 3-0 4-3 88.0 90.5 88.7 89.1
Buffalo 1-2 3-4 85.4 87.7 87.6 86.9
Bowling Green 1-2 1-6 81.5 82.5 82.1 82.0
Kent St. 1-2 2-5 80.3 81.7 80.8 80.9
             
West Division            
Team MAC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 2-0 5-1 100.6 100.5 101.9 101.0
Western Michigan 2-1 4-3 99.4 98.2 100.5 99.4
Eastern Michigan 0-2 2-4 95.9 95.5 96.3 95.9
Northern Illinois 2-0 4-2 90.9 90.7 91.6 91.0
Central Michigan 1-2 3-4 87.7 88.6 88.1 88.1
Ball St. 0-2 2-4 74.2 76.4 75.4 75.3
             
MAC Averages     88.7 89.7 89.6 89.3
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 3-0 5-2 106.1 104.9 106.2 105.7
Boise St. 2-0 4-2 103.9 102.2 103.8 103.3
Wyoming 2-0 4-2 95.6 94.3 94.4 94.7
Air Force 1-2 2-4 92.1 92.7 92.3 92.4
Utah St. 1-2 3-4 92.2 91.3 91.7 91.7
New Mexico 1-2 3-3 91.1 90.9 91.7 91.2
             
West Division            
Team MWC Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 2-1 6-1 101.0 101.1 101.9 101.3
Fresno St. 3-0 4-2 94.5 93.1 95.2 94.3
Nevada 1-2 1-6 86.3 88.3 87.9 87.5
U N L V 1-2 2-4 86.6 88.8 86.8 87.4
Hawaii 1-3 3-4 86.0 87.0 85.8 86.3
San Jose St. 0-4 1-7 76.7 76.8 76.0 76.5
             
MWC Averages     92.7 92.6 92.8 92.7
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team P12 Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington