The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 6, 2021

PiRate Picks–October 9-10, 2021

Last week, time constraints limited this weekly feature to the bare minimum. We have plenty of time this week, so rather than just list the games we have chosen, there’s time to go a little more in-depth with our selections.

First, we made a minimal profit of imaginary revenue last week, as we hit on the long odds 4-game parlay at +372.50 with Texas beating TCU, Wake Forest beating Louisville, South Carolina beating Troy, and Oklahoma State holding on to edge Baylor.

This week presented us with numerous opportunities where certain factors triggered plays. We ended up trimming it to eight parlays, and all but one game coming on Saturday. We had one key Sunday game but could not find an NFL partner for the game, so it attached to other college games to give us the biggest odds of the week. Without further adieu, here are our picks for this week. Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only, and we highly encourage you not to wager real money on these selections, unless you have other research that the information herein merely endorses.

Odds:+153.06
Must WinOpponent
Wake ForestSyracuse
BaylorWest Virginia

This first parlay is cut and dry. We believe that the public is not all that high on the two favorites. Wake Forest is supposed to be weak most years, but Dave Clawson has the Demon Deacons creeping up on Clemson for best in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. Baylor came oh so close to knocking off Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week. Had they pulled that win off, the Bears might be approaching the Top 10. West Virginia has played a tough schedule in a short time, and we feel they might show some fatigue in this game.

Odds:+155
Must WinOpponent
UTSAWestern Kentucky

Obviously, this is not a parlay. It is one of four games where we are picking an underdog to win straight up. Western Kentucky is due to bounce after getting up and playing a close game at Michigan State, while UTSA has quietly started 5-0 with a Power 5 win.

Odds:+160
Must WinOpponent
TexasOklahoma

It hasn’t been often in the last 15 years that we went into the second weekend in October believing that Texas would beat Oklahoma. Oklahoma has been narrowly escaping with wins over mediocre competition. After getting pasted at Arkansas, Texas has begun to look like a team ready to compete for the Big 12 Championship Game. We consider this a tossup game, so we go with the better odds and the underdog.

Odds:+160
Must WinOpponent
NebraskaMichigan

This is more of a system play. Nebraska won by more than 38 points in a conference game and now plays a conference home game the next week. In a high percentage of cases like this, the home team continues to play at the same top level it played the previous week. Additionally, Michigan is on the road for the second consecutive week in a key conference game. This has the look of a traditional upset.

Odds:+161.90
Must WinOpponent
San Jose St.Colorado St.
Bowling GreenAkron

The key game here is the San Jose State-Colorado State game. We feel like the wrong team is favored. However, playing SJSU in a single game does not supply us with the odds we look for when playing Money Lines. So, we added the Bowling Green game to it to make a parlay that has fat payout odds. The betting public may not see how much the Falcons have improved this year, while Akron remains one of the five worst teams in the FBS.

Odds:+188.93
Must WinOpponent
IowaPenn St.
TennesseeSouth Carolina
Arizona St.Stanford

This is the first of three big-odds payouts we are playing this week. In the first game in this parlay, our ratings show Iowa at the present time to be good enough to run the table and make the Playoffs. Penn State looks like a 10-2 team destined to play on New Year’s Day in Florida. Kirk Ferentz may have his best team in Iowa City.

In the second leg of this parlay, Tennessee fits the same criteria that Nebraska faces. They won by 38 points against a conference opponent and play at home this week against another conference opponent. While South Carolina’s defense is considerably better than Missouri’s, their offense is not as sharp, and we believe Josh Heupel’s Vols are sitting on another great performance.

The third part of this parlay is simply a case where we believe Arizona State is clearly superior to Stanford on both sides of the ball and should win by double digits.

Odds:+195.50
Must WinOpponent
South AlabamaTexas St.
Kent St.Buffalo
WisconsinIllinois

South Alabama looks to be 10-14 points better than Texas State, and when we saw the Money Line odds on this game, it was the first one that went into our play pool. Kent State has a score to settle with Buffalo. In the weird Covid year of 2020, The Golden Flashes only managed to get four games in the books. Buffalo was the last, and Kent State went into this game 3-0 and averaging 53 points per game. Buffalo was also 3-0. The Bulls hung 70 points on the Flashes. Kent State gets their revenge this week.

Wisconsin is the best 1-3 team in America. It is odd how many times unforced errors have hurt the Badgers in their three losses. The Badgers don’t particularly like their rival to the south, and we expect UW to win this game by a large margin.

Odds:+241.12
Must WinOpponent
Central MichiganOhio U
BYUBoise St.
CarolinaPhiladelphia

Finally, we come to our biggest odds play of the week. We only found one NFL game we wanted to play based on the Money Line odds, so we had to parlay the Carolina Panthers with a couple of college games.

While 2021 looks like a so-so year for Central Michigan, Ohio is in a state of flux after former coach Frank Solich retired during the Summer. The Bobcats are almost sleep-walking through games this year, which can be attributed to growing pains.

Boise State is a mere shell of its former self under Bryan Harsin. New coach Andy Avalos inherited 16 returning starters, but the Broncos never played up to their potential last year and appear to be repeating it this year. Maybe, they were just a bit overrated?

BYU has shown the world that they were more than just Zach Wilson last year. The Cougars’ defense is top notch, while the offense is a bit more deliberate this year, but it helps the defense perform even better. Other than the fact that the Cougars may be looking ahead a tad to next week’s game at Baylor, everything here looks like a BYU win.

Carolina should be a heavier favorite over Philadelphia. The loss to Dallas has been factored a bit too heavily. We like the Panthers solely because their Money Line odds are so favorable this week.

October 3, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 7-9, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:32 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
TulaneHouston-4.6-4.9-4.0
Arkansas St.Coastal Carolina-26.7-23.6-27.4
CincinnatiTemple43.041.043.9
Florida Int’l.Charlotte-0.3-0.7-0.5
Arizona St.Stanford12.612.413.3
North CarolinaFlorida St.17.818.220.2
RutgersMichigan St.-8.0-5.5-6.6
MassachusettsConnecticut0.4-1.4-0.9
SyracuseWake Forest-11.1-10.2-11.9
Central FloridaEast Carolina5.65.06.1
Ohio St.Maryland17.719.021.6
Bowling GreenAkron3.35.75.0
ToledoNorthern Illinois11.312.712.5
Kent St.Buffalo-0.32.2-0.2
DukeGeorgia Tech-6.7-5.9-7.7
Western MichiganBall St.4.55.36.4
LibertyMiddle Tennessee22.823.923.1
LouisvilleVirginia1.60.03.0
Air ForceWyoming5.14.84.9
BYUBoise St.9.89.69.8
MarshallOld Dominion22.621.622.5
Colorado St.San Jose St.-3.0-2.9-0.5
USCUtah7.47.59.2
Washington St.Oregon St.-9.3-8.2-9.6
TennesseeSouth Carolina9.08.79.5
NavySMU-12.2-13.6-13.2
Texas TechTCU-5.8-4.0-5.7
AuburnGeorgia-14.6-15.5-16.1
KentuckyLSU-0.20.8-0.8
BaylorWest Virginia-1.00.20.3
MissouriNorth Texas25.025.725.3
Texas St.South Alabama-6.0-8.2-7.3
UABFlorida Atlantic5.73.84.5
FloridaVanderbilt38.640.840.5
TulsaMemphis5.04.23.4
Louisiana-MonroeGeorgia St.-11.9-11.1-13.5
IllinoisWisconsin-10.3-10.0-11.3
Eastern MichiganMiami (O)-2.8-2.5-3.3
Texas (N)Oklahoma-4.9-4.1-3.7
NebraskaMichigan0.0-0.6-0.5
TroyGeorgia Southern5.35.36.1
Ohio UCentral Michigan-9.3-6.8-7.3
Texas A&MAlabama-14.3-12.8-15.3
Ole MissArkansas6.05.97.0
Southern Miss.UTEP5.86.27.8
Western KentuckyUTSA-7.3-6.2-5.9
IowaPenn St.6.04.44.6
Virginia TechNotre Dame-2.1-4.2-5.1
ArizonaUCLA-14.3-15.2-15.2
San Diego St.New Mexico24.023.325.0
NevadaNew Mexico St.32.433.134.5

28 Teams Off This Week!

Appalachian St.
Army
Boston College
California
Clemson
Colorado
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Indiana
Iowa St.
Kansas
Kansas St.
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech
Miami (Fla.)
Minnesota
Mississippi St.
North Carolina St.
Northwestern
Oklahoma St.
Oregon
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Rice
South Florida
UNLV
Utah St.
Washington

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia134.4
2Alabama131.1
3Oklahoma123.4
4Ohio St.122.8
5Cincinnati121.5
6Iowa St.120.5
7Iowa119.7
8Texas119.1
9Florida118.3
10Penn St.117.7
11Ole Miss117.2
12Clemson117.2
13Auburn116.0
14U S C115.2
15Arizona St.114.9
16North Carolina114.1
17Texas A&M114.0
18Michigan113.9
19Arkansas113.9
20Notre Dame113.4
21Oregon112.5
22L S U112.2
23Coastal Carolina111.8
24West Virginia111.8
25Oregon St.111.8
26T C U111.5
27Oklahoma St.110.7
28Nebraska110.6
29Wake Forest110.2
30Utah110.1
31BYU109.9
32Miami (Fla.)109.5
33U C L A109.5
34Kentucky109.2
35Baylor108.6
36Washington108.6
37Wisconsin108.5
38Michigan St.108.4
39Mississippi St.108.4
40NC State108.0
41Indiana107.5
42Tennessee107.2
43Liberty107.1
44Kansas St.107.0
45Virginia Tech106.6
46Maryland106.4
47Louisiana106.1
48Minnesota105.9
49Pittsburgh105.5
50Boston College105.5
51Stanford105.1
52Purdue105.0
53Appalachian St.105.0
54Virginia104.6
55Texas Tech103.3
56Boise St.103.2
57Louisville103.1
58Houston103.0
59SMU102.6
60Missouri102.5
61San Diego St.102.0
62Nevada101.2
63South Carolina101.1
64Fresno St.100.3
65UCF100.3
66Army100.2
67Air Force100.1
68Georgia Tech99.8
69Washington St.99.8
70Colorado99.4
71Rutgers98.7
72Miami (Ohio)98.5
73Florida St.98.4
74California98.1
75Wyoming98.1
76East Carolina97.7
77Toledo97.1
78U T S A96.9
79Northwestern96.8
80Central Michigan96.3
81Western Michigan96.2
82Syracuse96.1
83Tulane96.0
84San Jose St.96.0
85U A B95.9
86Illinois95.5
87Buffalo95.4
88Tulsa95.2
89Marshall94.6
90Florida Atlantic93.7
91Hawaii93.6
92Memphis93.5
93Kent St.93.4
94Ball St.93.3
95Eastern Michigan93.0
96South Alabama91.9
97Troy91.8
98Arizona91.6
99Georgia St.91.4
100Colorado St.90.9
101Duke90.6
102Utah St.90.2
103Louisiana Tech89.5
104Georgia Southern88.7
105USF88.6
106Western Kentucky87.9
107Northern Illinois87.4
108Navy87.0
109Middle Tennessee86.8
110Ohio85.9
111U N L V85.1
112Arkansas St.83.9
113Southern Miss.83.0
114Texas St.82.7
115Rice82.1
116Charlotte81.9
117Temple81.8
118Vanderbilt81.4
119New Mexico80.9
120North Texas80.2
121Kansas79.9
122Florida Int’l.78.9
123U T E P78.4
124Bowling Green77.3
125UL-Monroe76.7
126Old Dominion74.9
127Akron74.1
128Connecticut71.8
129New Mexico St.70.8
130UMass69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati121.0120.5123.0121.5
Houston103.3102.2103.6103.0
SMU102.0102.7103.0102.6
UCF100.299.0101.8100.3
East Carolina97.697.098.697.7
Tulane96.294.897.096.0
Tulsa95.495.394.995.2
Memphis92.993.594.193.5
USF88.988.288.888.6
Navy87.386.687.387.0
Temple81.082.582.081.8

AAC Averages96.996.697.697.0

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson116.5116.6118.4117.2
Wake Forest110.3109.6110.7110.2
NC State108.3107.7107.9108.0
Boston College105.1105.6105.7105.5
Louisville102.7102.4104.3103.1
Florida St.98.498.498.398.4
Syracuse96.396.495.896.1

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina113.2113.6115.5114.1
Miami (Fla.)110.0108.9109.8109.5
Virginia Tech107.5106.2106.2106.6
Pittsburgh105.2106.0105.4105.5
Virginia104.1105.4104.3104.6
Georgia Tech99.899.999.899.8
Duke90.691.589.690.6

ACC Averages104.8104.9105.1104.9

Big 12 Conference

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma124.7122.4123.0123.4
Iowa St.121.1119.5120.9120.5
Texas119.8118.3119.3119.1
West Virginia113.3111.5110.6111.8
T C U112.1110.8111.5111.5
Oklahoma St.111.0110.8110.2110.7
Baylor109.3108.7107.9108.6
Kansas St.107.3107.2106.5107.0
Texas Tech103.3103.8102.8103.3
Kansas82.480.077.379.9

Big 12 Averages110.4109.3109.0109.6

Big Ten Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.122.3122.2124.0122.8
Penn St.116.4117.4119.2117.7
Michigan113.2114.2114.4113.9
Michigan St.108.7108.4108.2108.4
Indiana107.3107.1108.1107.5
Maryland107.6106.2105.4106.4
Rutgers97.699.998.598.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa119.4118.9120.8119.7
Nebraska110.2110.6110.9110.6
Wisconsin108.0107.9109.5108.5
Minnesota104.9105.8107.0105.9
Purdue104.6104.2106.3105.0
Northwestern96.997.096.696.8
Illinois95.295.495.895.5

Big Ten Averages108.0108.3108.9108.4

Conference USA

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall94.594.395.194.6
Florida Atlantic92.894.494.093.7
Western Kentucky86.988.588.387.9
Middle Tennessee86.586.487.686.8
Charlotte81.082.082.681.9
Florida Int’l.78.278.979.678.9
Old Dominion74.475.275.074.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A96.797.296.896.9
U A B96.095.895.995.9
Louisiana Tech89.790.288.789.5
Southern Miss.82.483.583.083.0
Rice82.182.082.182.1
North Texas80.580.379.880.2
U T E P78.679.377.278.4

CUSA Averages85.786.386.186.0

Independents

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame112.6113.4114.3113.4
BYU109.9109.4110.4109.9
Liberty106.3107.2107.7107.1
Army100.3100.399.9100.2
Connecticut72.173.170.271.8
New Mexico St.71.271.969.470.8
UMass71.070.167.869.6

Mid-American Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)100.098.097.498.5
Buffalo96.095.095.195.4
Kent St.93.294.692.593.4
Ohio85.386.586.085.9
Bowling Green77.578.276.177.3
Akron75.774.072.774.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.697.296.497.1
Central Michigan97.295.895.896.3
Western Michigan96.196.795.796.2
Ball St.94.194.091.893.3
Eastern Michigan94.792.991.593.0
Northern Illinois88.787.086.487.4

MAC Averages91.390.889.890.7

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.1102.8103.6103.2
Air Force99.7100.0100.6100.1
Wyoming97.698.198.798.1
Colorado St.90.790.791.390.9
Utah St.89.990.889.990.2
New Mexico81.381.579.980.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.102.3101.8101.9102.0
Nevada100.6102.0100.9101.2
Fresno St.99.2100.6101.3100.3
San Jose St.96.696.694.896.0
Hawaii93.793.493.793.6
U N L V85.584.685.285.1

MWC Averages95.095.295.195.1

Pac-12 Conference

North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.6112.5113.5112.5
Oregon St.111.6111.6112.1111.8
Washington107.5109.0109.2108.6
Stanford104.7105.7105.0105.1
Washington St.99.4100.499.599.8
California96.099.998.698.1

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C114.7114.7116.0115.2
Arizona St.114.4115.1115.3114.9
Utah110.4110.2109.8110.1
U C L A109.2109.6109.7109.5
Colorado99.999.498.999.4
Arizona91.991.491.591.6

Pac-12 Averages105.9106.6106.6106.4

Southeastern Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia133.9134.0135.5134.4
Florida117.6119.1118.3118.3
Kentucky108.4110.2108.9109.2
Tennessee107.3106.9107.3107.2
Missouri102.5103.0102.1102.5
South Carolina101.4101.2100.8101.1
Vanderbilt82.081.380.881.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.1130.2132.1131.1
Ole Miss117.1117.0117.5117.2
Auburn116.3115.4116.4116.0
Texas A&M113.8114.4113.8114.0
Arkansas114.1114.1113.5113.9
L S U111.6112.4112.7112.2
Mississippi St.108.4108.6108.1108.4

SEC Averages111.8112.0112.0111.9

Sun Belt Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina112.5110.3112.5111.8
Appalachian St.104.5104.2106.3105.0
Troy91.591.992.091.8
Georgia St.91.891.091.491.4
Georgia Southern88.789.188.488.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana106.8105.0106.6106.1
South Alabama92.192.191.491.9
Arkansas St.83.984.783.183.9
Texas St.84.181.982.182.7
UL-Monroe77.377.475.476.7

Sun Averages93.392.892.993.0

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.9
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.4
4Pac-12106.4
5Atlantic Coast104.9
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.1
8Sun Belt93.0
9Independents91.8
10Mid-American90.7
11Conference USA86.0

PiRate Ratings Commence Bowl Projections Today

With one month of play in the books, it is time to begin issuing our Bowl Projections. This is starting to look like a fractured college football season. The Atlantic Coast Conference and Pac-12 Conference have basically been eliminated from Playoff contention. In the Big 12, Oklahoma looks anything like a Playoff team, and Ohio State’s loss at home to Oregon now looks much worse with Oregon losing to Stanford.

Meanwhile, the SEC has two super teams that should be co-number ones. Alabama and Georgia might finish the regular season as the top two seeds even though one team must lose a game in the SEC Championship Game.

Cincinnati’s road win over Notre Dame is enough for now to put them in the Field of Four, but only if either the Big 12 or Big Ten champions have a loss. The Bearcats still have some tough conference opposition to conquer in SMU and Houston.

The Redbox Bowl has already cancelled their 2021 game, and that leaves spots for 82 teams in the postseason. As of today, we count 85 teams that are on pace of a minimum of six wins. The 6-6 line has a large number of teams.

Here is our first stab at the projections for 2021-22. Unlike recent years, there is a lot more wiggle room for different conferences to appear in multiple bowls.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSAToledo
CureLibertyMarshall
BocaFlorida AtlanticCoastal Carolina
New MexicoUTEPWyoming
IndependenceBYULouisiana Tech
Lending TreeWestern MichiganTroy
L. A.San Jose St.Arizona St.
New OrleansUABLouisiana
Myrtle BeachAppalachian St.Northern Illinois
Famous Idaho PotatoKent St.Boise St.
FriscoMemphisUtah St.
Armed ForcesArmyWashington
GasparillaEast CarolinaIowa St.
HawaiiHoustonNevada
CamelliaMiami (O)South Alabama
Quick LaneBall St.Western Kentucky
MilitaryVirginia TechCentral Florida
BirminghamMiami (Fla.)Mississippi St.
First ResponderTCUFresno St.
LibertyKansas St.Arkansas
HolidayNorth CarolinaUtah
Guaranteed RateAir ForceBaylor
FenwayBoston CollegeSMU
PinstripePittsburghIndiana
Cheez-ItWake ForestTexas
AlamoOklahoma St.Stanford
Duke’s MayoNorth Carolina St.Auburn
Music CityMinnesotaTennessee
Las VegasWisconsinUSC
Tax Slayer GatorVirginiaLSU
Tony The Tiger SunLouisvilleUCLA
ArizonaCentral MichiganSan Diego St.
CitrusMichiganOle Miss
OutbackMichigan St.Florida
TexasTexas TechTexas A&M
PeachClemsonPenn St.
FiestaOregonNotre Dame
RoseOhio St.Oregon St.
SugarKentuckyOklahoma
CottonIowaAlabama
OrangeGeorgiaCincinnati
ChampionshipGeorgiaAlabama

This Week’s TV Fare

This week presents fewer total games, as we mentioned early that 28 teams have bye weeks. There are a handful of important and exciting games on the schedule, but this may be the week to watch the Major League Baseball Playoffs more than college football.

Saturday, October 9
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMABCTexas (n)Oklahoma
FoxOhio St.Maryland
ESPNOle MissArkansas
ESPN2TennesseeSouth Carolina
FS1BaylorWest Virginia
CBSSNToledoNorthern Illinois
BTNRutgersMichigan St.
SECFloridaVanderbilt

3:00 PMACCLouisvilleVirginia

3:30 PMCBSAuburnGeorgia
ABCBYUBoise St.
ESPNNorth CarolinaFlorida St.
ESPN2SyracuseWake Forest
FS1Colorado St.San Jose St.
CBSSNNavySMU
BTNIllinoisWisconsin

4:00 PMFoxIowaPenn St.
SECMissouriNorth Texas
Pac-12Washington St.Oregon St.

7:00 PMESPNTexas TechTCU
ESPNUKent St.Buffalo
CBSSNAir ForceWyoming

7:30 PMABCNebraskaMichigan
SECKentuckyLSU
ACCVirginia TechNotre Dame

8:00 PMCBSTexas A&MAlabama
FOXUSCUtah
FS1San Diego St.New Mexico

9:00 PMESPN2TulsaMemphis

10:30 PMESPNArizonaUCLA
CBSSNNevadaNew Mexico St.

September 26, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–September 30-October 2, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:08 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Miami (Fla.)Virginia11.89.011.8
TulsaHouston0.92.50.6
MarylandIowa-0.3-1.2-4.2
Utah St.BYU-18.9-17.5-20.0
Florida St.Syracuse4.64.65.5
North CarolinaDuke22.021.125.5
East CarolinaTulane-1.6-1.2-2.1
ClemsonBoston College15.815.617.8
PurdueMinnesota5.23.75.2
Georgia TechPittsburgh3.22.53.4
North Carolina St.Louisiana Tech23.822.624.9
Georgia St.Appalachian St.-6.2-6.4-8.2
South CarolinaTroy13.512.912.6
Ball St.Army-8.5-8.8-11.2
Penn St.Indiana8.810.010.6
TempleMemphis-12.4-11.5-12.9
Iowa St.Kansas40.040.645.4
MassachusettsToledo-20.6-21.2-22.7
IllinoisCharlotte17.617.016.7
Wake ForestLouisville11.410.910.4
BuffaloWestern Michigan4.63.04.6
RutgersOhio St.-15.3-13.1-15.6
Coastal CarolinaLouisiana-Monroe34.831.936.7
Northern IllinoisEastern Michigan-5.1-5.4-4.5
Boise St.Nevada10.08.310.6
New MexicoAir Force-10.6-10.5-12.7
ColoradoUSC-8.8-9.2-11.1
Notre DameCincinnati-4.1-2.1-4.0
San Jose St.New Mexico St.31.330.731.6
Oregon St.Washington7.56.06.5
CaliforniaWashington St.3.36.86.6
StanfordOregon-4.7-4.8-7.2
Miami (O)Central Michigan5.04.02.9
Kent St.Bowling Green19.320.520.7
AlabamaOle Miss16.515.416.8
NavyCentral Florida-13.4-13.1-15.8
SMUSouth Florida13.715.314.6
Oklahoma St.Baylor3.63.73.7
GeorgiaArkansas18.818.721.1
AkronOhio U-4.5-7.7-8.6
MissouriTennessee6.77.96.7
TCUTexas-4.2-3.8-3.9
KentuckyFlorida-8.6-8.4-9.3
Kansas St.Oklahoma-16.2-13.8-15.8
Florida AtlanticFlorida Int’l.9.610.69.0
VanderbiltConnecticut13.611.714.7
West VirginiaTexas Tech16.413.814.3
LSUAuburn-0.81.50.9
WisconsinMichigan2.61.43.2
Texas A&MMississippi St.12.312.913.0
Georgia SouthernArkansas St.2.11.22.2
UTSAUNLV14.816.615.6
RiceSouthern Miss.1.80.20.9
South AlabamaLouisiana-13.5-11.5-14.5
UABLiberty-3.7-4.9-5.2
Middle TennesseeMarshall-8.1-8.2-7.7
NebraskaNorthwestern7.88.18.8
Michigan St.Western Kentucky25.623.623.7
UTEPOld Dominion6.46.44.0
UCLAArizona St.2.01.92.0
HawaiiFresno St.-2.0-4.4-4.9

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia132.2
2Alabama130.8
3Oklahoma124.5
4Cincinnati120.3
5Iowa St.119.9
6Florida119.3
7Ohio St.119.1
8Texas118.5
9Clemson118.0
10Ole Miss117.6
11Texas A&M116.4
12Penn St.116.2
13Arkansas115.7
14Auburn115.1
15Iowa114.8
16Notre Dame113.9
17U S C113.6
18West Virginia113.6
19Oregon113.3
20North Carolina113.3
21L S U112.6
22Arizona St.112.2
23Oregon St.112.0
24U C L A111.7
25Michigan111.7
26T C U111.6
27Miami (Fla.)111.1
28Wisconsin111.1
29Wake Forest110.6
30BYU110.2
31Coastal Carolina110.0
32Oklahoma St.109.9
33Maryland109.9
34Utah109.8
35NC State109.4
36Indiana109.4
37Baylor109.2
38Michigan St.108.8
39Washington108.3
40Kentucky107.5
41Louisiana107.1
42Mississippi St.106.7
43Missouri106.7
44Purdue106.6
45Nebraska106.6
46Virginia Tech106.3
47Kansas St.106.2
48Boise St.105.8
49Liberty105.3
50Minnesota104.8
51Stanford104.7
52Boston College104.6
53Virginia103.3
54Army102.8
55Louisville102.7
56Georgia Tech102.7
57Appalachian St.102.7
58Pittsburgh102.6
59Tennessee102.6
60UCF102.5
61Texas Tech101.8
62San Diego St.101.7
63South Carolina101.4
64Rutgers101.4
65Northwestern101.3
66SMU101.3
67Colorado100.9
68Fresno St.100.9
69Houston100.5
70California100.4
71Nevada99.1
72Tulane98.9
73Tulsa98.8
74Florida St.98.7
75Wyoming97.9
76Miami (Ohio)97.9
77Washington St.97.8
78San Jose St.97.8
79U A B97.7
80Air Force97.6
81U T S A97.3
82Central Michigan96.9
83Buffalo96.7
84Marshall96.4
85Syracuse96.3
86Illinois95.7
87Toledo95.3
88Western Michigan95.1
89Memphis95.0
90East Carolina94.3
91Eastern Michigan94.2
92Kent St.94.2
93Georgia St.93.7
94Hawaii93.1
95Troy91.4
96Duke91.4
97Arizona91.3
98South Alabama90.9
99Ball St.90.7
100Colorado St.90.7
101Florida Atlantic90.7
102Utah St.89.9
103USF89.7
104Louisiana Tech88.6
105Western Kentucky87.5
106Arkansas St.86.6
107Northern Illinois86.2
108Georgia Southern86.0
109Navy85.4
110Middle Tennessee85.4
111Ohio85.0
112U N L V84.6
113New Mexico83.4
114Southern Miss.83.3
115Texas St.82.5
116Vanderbilt82.4
117Florida Int’l.82.0
118Rice81.8
119Charlotte81.6
120Kansas80.9
121Temple80.7
122North Texas80.0
123UL-Monroe78.5
124U T E P78.0
125Bowling Green76.5
126Akron75.6
127Old Dominion74.9
128UMass71.7
129Connecticut71.1
130New Mexico St.69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati120.0119.2121.8120.3
UCF102.2101.1104.2102.5
SMU100.7101.5101.6101.3
Houston100.999.5101.0100.5
Tulane99.097.7100.198.9
Tulsa98.899.098.598.8
Memphis94.394.995.795.0
East Carolina94.393.695.094.3
USF90.089.290.089.7
Navy85.885.085.485.4
Temple79.981.480.780.7

AAC Averages96.996.697.697.0

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson117.2117.4119.4118.0
Wake Forest110.7110.0111.2110.6
NC State109.6109.0109.5109.4
Boston College104.4104.8104.7104.6
Louisville102.3102.0103.8102.7
Florida St.98.698.798.898.7
Syracuse96.696.695.896.3

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina112.4112.6114.8113.3
Miami (Fla.)111.6110.3111.6111.1
Virginia Tech107.2105.9105.9106.3
Virginia102.8104.3102.8103.3
Georgia Tech102.6102.7102.8102.7
Pittsburgh102.4103.2102.4102.6
Duke91.492.590.391.4

ACC Averages105.0105.0105.3105.1

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma125.8123.3124.3124.5
Iowa St.120.4118.7120.4119.9
Texas119.3117.7118.6118.5
West Virginia115.2113.2112.5113.6
T C U112.1110.9111.7111.6
Oklahoma St.110.3110.0109.3109.9
Baylor109.8109.3108.6109.2
Kansas St.106.5106.6105.5106.2
Texas Tech101.7102.4101.2101.8
Kansas83.481.178.180.9

Big 12 Averages110.5109.3109.0109.6

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.118.6118.6120.1119.1
Penn St.114.9115.9117.6116.2
Michigan111.0112.0112.0111.7
Maryland111.1109.7108.7109.9
Indiana109.1108.9110.0109.4
Michigan St.109.1108.7108.6108.8
Rutgers100.3102.5101.4101.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa114.4113.9116.0114.8
Wisconsin110.5110.4112.2111.1
Purdue106.1105.6108.0106.6
Nebraska106.2106.6106.9106.6
Minnesota103.9104.9105.8104.8
Northwestern101.4101.5101.1101.3
Illinois95.495.796.195.7

Big Ten Averages108.0108.2108.9108.4

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.296.196.996.4
Florida Atlantic89.891.490.890.7
Western Kentucky86.588.287.987.5
Middle Tennessee85.184.986.185.4
Florida Int’l.81.281.982.882.0
Charlotte80.881.782.381.6
Old Dominion74.475.275.274.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B97.897.697.797.7
U T S A97.097.797.397.3
Louisiana Tech88.989.487.688.6
Southern Miss.82.683.983.383.3
Rice81.981.681.881.8
North Texas80.380.179.680.0
U T E P78.379.076.778.0

CUSA Averages85.886.386.286.1

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame112.9114.0114.8113.9
BYU110.1109.6110.9110.2
Liberty104.5105.4105.9105.3
Army102.7102.8102.7102.8
UMass73.172.269.971.7
Connecticut71.472.569.371.1
New Mexico St.70.070.768.069.6

Indep. Averages92.192.591.692.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.697.496.697.9
Buffalo97.396.396.696.7
Kent St.93.895.493.494.2
Ohio84.285.685.185.0
Bowling Green76.977.475.276.5
Akron77.375.474.175.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan97.696.496.696.9
Toledo95.895.494.695.3
Western Michigan95.195.794.595.1
Eastern Michigan95.894.192.794.2
Ball St.91.791.589.090.7
Northern Illinois87.685.885.286.2

MAC Averages91.190.589.590.4

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.105.6105.3106.3105.8
Wyoming97.497.998.597.9
Air Force97.397.598.197.6
Colorado St.90.590.591.190.7
Utah St.89.790.689.489.9
New Mexico83.784.082.483.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.102.0101.5101.6101.7
Fresno St.99.5101.2102.0100.9
Nevada98.6100.098.799.1
San Jose St.98.398.396.797.8
Hawaii93.492.893.093.1
U N L V85.284.184.784.6

MWC Averages95.195.395.295.2

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon112.2113.2114.5113.3
Oregon St.111.8111.8112.4112.0
Washington107.3108.8108.9108.3
Stanford104.4105.3104.3104.7
California98.0102.2101.0100.4
Washington St.97.798.497.497.8

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C113.2113.1114.5113.6
Arizona St.111.8112.4112.5112.2
U C L A111.3111.8112.0111.7
Utah110.1109.9109.5109.8
Colorado101.4101.0100.4100.9
Arizona91.691.191.291.3

Pac-12 Averages105.9106.6106.5106.3

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia131.7131.7133.3132.2
Florida118.4120.0119.4119.3
Kentucky106.9108.6107.1107.5
Missouri106.5107.2106.3106.7
Tennessee102.8102.2102.6102.6
South Carolina101.7101.5101.2101.4
Vanderbilt83.082.282.082.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.9129.8131.7130.8
Ole Miss117.3117.4117.9117.6
Texas A&M116.1116.8116.3116.4
Arkansas115.8115.9115.2115.7
Auburn115.6114.4115.4115.1
L S U111.8112.9113.2112.6
Mississippi St.106.8106.9106.3106.7

SEC Averages111.8112.0112.0111.9

Sunbelt Conference
East DivisionPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina110.8108.3110.8110.0
Appalachian St.102.2101.8104.0102.7
Georgia St.94.193.493.793.7
Troy91.291.691.691.4
Georgia Southern86.186.385.686.0

West DivisionPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana107.7105.8107.8107.1
South Alabama91.291.390.290.9
Arkansas St.86.587.585.986.6
Texas St.83.981.781.982.5
UL-Monroe79.079.477.178.5

Sun Averages93.392.792.992.9

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.9
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.4
4Pac-12106.3
5Atlantic Coast105.1
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.2
8Sun Belt92.9
9Independents92.1
10Mid-American90.4
11Conference USA86.1

Excellent TV Schedule For A 14-Hour Marathon

After a week with a minimum of outstanding TV games, you will have a feast of great games this coming weekend. It will be possible to sit on your sofa in your man cave from Noon Eastern Time until 2 AM Sunday and be presented with excellent football game choices. This is a weekend where you might want to have multiple monitors at the ready. Here are our starred games on the tube.

All Times Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Maryland vs. Iowa

The Terrapins haven’t been 5-0 since 2001, when they won the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship and lost to Florida in the Orange Bowl. Maryland Stadium should be jam-packed as Coach Mike Locksley leads his charges onto the field to face the presumptive Big Ten West favorites in this battle of unbeaten teams. It’s still early, but a Hawkeye win to make Iowa 5-0 could put them on pace to run the table to the Big Ten Championship Game.

TV Info: 8 PM on FS1

Saturday Games

Georgia vs. Arkansas

Georgia’s quick 35-0 first quarter lead over Vanderbilt was achieved almost effortlessly, and Coach Kirby Smart took his starters out after the first quarter. It was like a walk-through practice for their regulars.

Arkansas played a tough 60-minute game against old Southwest Conference rival Texas A&M, knocking off the Aggies in a mild upset to start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2003. If you’re wondering when the last time Arkansas was 5-0, it was 1998. A week from today, that should still be true, but this should be an interesting game to watch to start the day. Beating Vanderbilt 62-0 this year is almost inevitable. Beating Arkansas by three touchdowns or more would justify moving the Bulldogs to number one in the nation. Of course, we did that this week.

TV Info: 12 Noon on ESPN

Wisconsin vs. Michigan

This is a fact-finding tour game for both teams. Can Wisconsin play a game without making multiple mental mistakes, or is this ingrained in their 2021 DNA? The Badgers could possibly be undefeated today if not for those crucial game-crushing mistakes. Was that Graham or Ethel Mertz throwing those touchdown passes to Notre Dame defenders at Soldier Field?

What are we to make of Michigan’s lack of offensive production against Rutgers? The Wolverines were leading the FBS in rushing yardage before the Scarlet Knights shut it down. The Maize and Blue need to control this game and win convincingly if they are really contenders for the Big Ten East title this year.

TV Info: 12 Noon on Fox

Missouri vs. Tennessee

Call this game a bowl qualifier. The winner has a strong path to bowl eligibility, while the loser will need to pull off at least one if not two upsets to get to 6-6. What makes this a much-watch game is that this is the middle of the SEC, and these teams have just enough talent to pull off an upset down the road against a potential Playoff-contender.

TV Info: 12 Noon on SEC Network

TCU vs. Texas

Some of the shine came off this game when TCU fell to Metroplex rival SMU. However, both teams are still undefeated in the Big 12, and the winner becomes the top contender to Oklahoma, who all of a sudden looks quite vulnerable. This should be your typical Southwestern Shootout with up to 90 total points scored, and if Texas wins handily like they did against Texas Tech, the Sooners better take notice before they head to the State Fair the week after.

TV Info: 12 Noon on ABC

Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati

Clemson has played itself out of the Playoff race with two losses. Ohio State will follow the Tigers if they lose another game. Texas A&M and Iowa State couldn’t live up to their preseason hype. If the Playoff Committee has to choose four teams today, Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma would be three of the choices, but choice number four would be wide open between Penn State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Florida. The winner of this game in South Bend is going to be in great shape to run the table. Notre Dame’s remaining schedule looks soft. Cinti has one tough game at home against SMU and a possible rematch in the AAC Championship Game. We pronounce this one to be the top game of the day. Clear your schedule. This game should be close and may not be decided until the closing minutes.

TV Info: 2:30 PM on NBC

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

For the rest of the nation not reading this feature, this will be their game of the week. The top two Heisman Trophy Award contenders will face off in Tuscaloosa. Tide quarterback Bryce Young is being called the best game manager in college football. You want to know another former Alabama quarterback that was an excellent game manager? Bart Starr merely led the Green Bay Packers to five NFL Championships.

Matt Corral is the exciting, dual threat superstar that has given Alabama all of its defeats in the last decade. Ole Miss could score 40 or more points in this game and still lose by double digits. It should be an interesting game, but the Tide has a bit more talent, and Nick Saban owns part of Lane Kiffin’s subconscious.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on CBS

Kansas St. vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma doesn’t look anything like a Playoff contender, as they were lucky to survive at home against a fair but not great West Virginia team. Kansas State laid an egg against an Oklahoma State team that has not been the most dominant 4-0 team.

The loser of this game will most likely lose at least one other conference game, and that will eliminate that team from Playoff contention. Kansas State lost to Arkansas State the week before going to Norman last year and handing the Sooners a loss. The Wildcats have the talent to repeat the upset, especially if the OU offense doesn’t get a tune-up this week in practice.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on Fox

Stanford vs. Oregon

The Ducks earned a lot of Playoff Committee bonus points by winning at Ohio State, but their other games have not been totally impressive. The Pac-12 has so much parity that the also-ran teams have better chances to upset the contenders than in any other Power 5 league. Stanford hasn’t defeated a quality team this year, as USC has now proven to be mediocre at best. The Ducks have had difficulty winning in Palo Alto through the years, and a loss here would kill their chances of making the Playoffs, especially with road games against Washington, UCLA, and Utah still to be played.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on ABC

Rutgers vs. Ohio St.

As John McEnroe might say, “you cannot be serious!” Rutgers playing Ohio State is a key TV game? The Buckeyes might be walking into a garden ambush at SHI Stadium in Piscataway. Rutgers had a chance to win in Ann Arbor, and they stopped a btter running game than Ohio State has this year. Can they also stop a top passing game? It should be interesting and worth watching.

TV Info: 3:30 PM on Big Ten Network

Kentucky vs. Florida

Who will play top contender for the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC East? Kentucky has been improving year by year on the defensive side but has been lacking offensively due to problems passing the ball. Coach Mark Stoops brought Liam Coen to Lexington after running the Los Angeles Rams’ offense. The Wildcats still have a top notch defense, but the passing game is struggling a bit.

In the second half of their game against Alabama, Florida looked like the superior team. A lousy first half did the Gators in. Not having Anthony Richardson to play these last two games have played a little toll on the Gator offense. If Richardson is full strength, Florida should be able to top Kentucky in Lexington. Florida must keep winning every week to make the Georgia game essential. The Gators are still very much in the Playoff race.

TV Info: 6 PM on ESPN

Oklahoma St. vs. Baylor

Who would have predicted that these teams would both be 4-0 when they faced off? Both teams have to be considered Big 12 Championship Game contenders, but the Cowboys are probably a legitimate contender, where the Bears must still prove they are for real. A win here adds to the proof given when they beat Iowa State.

TV Info: 7 PM on ESPN2

Clemson vs. Boston College

It’s obvious by now that Clemson’s offense has suffered too many losses from last year’s team, as many defenses have successfully held that tiger. Boston College survived a 56-yard field goal to pick up a rare ACC win over an SEC team. At 4-0, the Eagles are one of two remaining undefeated teams left in the league (Wake Forest). If BC can win this game and look like it was not a fluke, then at least, the league can pretend to still have a playoff contender.

TV Info: 7:30 PM on ACC Network

Oregon State vs. Washington

Oregon State played one bad quarter against Purdue in the season opener, and that’s why the Beavers are not 4-0 and threatening to make the Pac-12 North a two-team race. Washington lost to Montana in week one and then fell to Michigan in week two. The Huskies still might win the North Division title, but they have no chance to make the Playoffs.

The winner of this game will be tied for first at the minimum and in sole possession of first if Stanford beats Oregon. OSU looked like a serious contender in their pasting of USC in the Coliseum. The last time the Beavers had won at the Coliseum was 1960, when Tommy Prothro was coaching the team, and future Heisman Trophy quarterback Terry Baker was leading it. If Tristan Gebbia can stay healthy, Oregon State just might be the team that Oregon has to worry about.

TV Info: 9 PM on Pac-12 Network

UCLA vs. Arizona St.

This is a battle for first place in the Pac-12 South, but neither team is in contention for a Playoff bid. ASU lost to BYU, while the Bruins lost to Fresno State. At 12-1, neither team would get in against a third place SEC school that is 11-1.

The PiRates begin updating the ratings during the second half of the late Pac-12 game, so we always have the audio up on these games while working through the wee hours of the morning. These games are always exciting and keep us alert. You get your money’s worth with Pac-12 games, even if it no longer really is the “conference of champions.”

TV Info: 10:30 PM on FS1

September 12, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football September 12, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:56 am

Note: We want to thank all our fans that were part of the opening weekend introduction of the PiRate Ratings Pro Football Simulation Tabletop Game. We were overwhelmed by the number of orders you made for the salute to the American Football League.

If you are interested in knowing more about the game, click on the link below.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
LouisianaOhio U23.319.222.3
LouisvilleCentral Florida0.31.1-0.8
IllinoisMarylalnd-14.3-12.2-11.2
Miami (Fla.)Michigan St.10.39.411.3
MichiganNorthern Illinois20.323.524.3
ArmyConnecticut35.734.538.9
MassachusettsEastern Michigan-15.9-14.8-16.5
TempleBoston College-22.4-21.3-22.0
West VirginiaVirginia Tech9.79.18.3
BuffaloCoastal Carolina-8.7-7.0-9.9
PittsburghWestern Michigan15.816.517.5
OklahomaNebraska25.622.524.0
IndianaCincinnati-3.9-3.1-4.3
Texas A&MNew Mexico35.335.936.9
ColoradoMinnesota4.93.31.4
WyomingBall St.3.44.37.7
Kansas St.Nevada8.97.37.4
Notre DamePurdue0.52.30.8
ClemsonGeorgia Tech26.727.129.6
Washington St.USC-12.8-11.7-14.6
FloridaAlabama-13.3-10.1-13.9
Wake ForestFlorida St.8.77.18.4
IowaKent St.26.423.929.4
Louisiana TechSMU-4.5-4.9-7.0
Ohio St.Tulsa23.423.425.6
KansasBaylor-15.1-17.4-19.6
ToledoColorado St.16.516.315.3
DukeNorthwestern-11.6-10.3-12.5
ArkansasGeorgia Southern30.029.229.1
MemphisMississippi St.-13.7-13.3-11.4
WashingtonArkansas St.17.517.820.1
UTSAMiddle Tennessee14.114.912.3
LibertyOld Dominion35.636.337.6
MarshallEast Carolina5.06.04.4
Southern Miss.Troy-10.5-9.1-10.2
Texas TechFlorida Int’l.26.226.223.4
Georgia St.Charlotte14.212.312.0
San Diego St.Utah-6.1-6.7-6.5
GeorgiaSouth Carolina29.029.231.7
Penn St.Auburn-0.91.41.7
Air ForceUtah St.10.39.011.1
North CarolinaVirginia14.812.817.8
LSUCentral Michigan12.514.914.8
North TexasUAB-8.8-8.7-8.9
VanderbiltStanford-14.2-16.1-14.9
TexasRice33.231.332.0
Ole MissTulane14.315.612.6
Boise St.Oklahoma St.-2.7-2.8-0.9
BYUArizona St.2.10.62.1
UNLVIowa St.-32.7-32.2-33.9
UCLAFresno St.18.116.215.8
HawaiiSan Jose St.-3.5-4.3-2.2

This week’s FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
KentuckyChattanooga30.2
MissouriSE Missouri29.4
TennesseeTennessee Tech30.7
SyracuseAlbany21.5
RutgersDelaware23.5
Miami (O)Long Island25.5
AkronBryant9.2
Appalachian St.Elon27.7
Oregon St.Idaho21.2
CaliforniaSacramento St.22.3
Bowling GreenMurray St.5.2
Florida AtlanticFordham27.4
HoustonGrambling28.8
South FloridaFlorida A&M15.5
Texas St.Incarnate Word13.5
OregonStony Brook32.4
North Carolina St.Furman27.1
Louisiana-MonroeJackson St.11.6
South AlabamaAlcorn St.23.3
New Mexico St.South Carolina St.1.5
ArizonaNorthern Arizona16.3

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama132.3
2Georgia128.5
3Oklahoma126.4
4Clemson121.7
5Iowa St.120.6
6Ohio St.119.5
7Cincinnati119.2
8Auburn118.2
9Texas A&M117.8
10North Carolina117.7
11Iowa117.6
12Florida116.8
13Penn St.116.0
14U S C115.7
15Wisconsin114.7
16T C U114.4
17Ole Miss114.0
18Texas114.0
19Oregon113.5
20Miami (Fla.)113.4
21U C L A113.0
22West Virginia112.9
23Indiana112.4
24Arkansas112.3
25Arizona St.111.7
26L S U111.4
27Utah110.5
28BYU110.3
29Maryland109.6
30Oklahoma St.109.5
31Coastal Carolina109.1
32Michigan108.6
33Purdue108.6
34Notre Dame108.3
35NC State108.1
36Kentucky108.0
37Mississippi St.108.0
38Louisiana106.9
39Virginia Tech106.9
40Wake Forest106.8
41Liberty106.8
42Oregon St.106.3
43Missouri106.2
44Colorado106.2
45Michigan St.106.1
46Minnesota106.0
47Washington105.6
48Virginia105.6
49Kansas St.105.4
50Nebraska105.3
51Stanford105.1
52Baylor104.9
53Boston College104.8
54Boise St.104.3
55UCF104.0
56Pittsburgh103.3
57Texas Tech102.9
58Tulane102.9
59Appalachian St.102.8
60Northwestern102.5
61Tennessee102.4
62Army102.1
63Louisville101.7
64South Carolina101.5
65Florida St.101.3
66Houston101.2
67San Diego St.101.1
68Nevada100.6
69Rutgers100.4
70San Jose St.100.4
71Central Michigan100.4
72Washington St.99.6
73California99.6
74Fresno St.99.3
75Tulsa98.4
76Toledo98.3
77Miami (Ohio)97.9
78Buffalo97.6
79Wyoming97.4
80SMU97.2
81Air Force97.0
82U T S A96.9
83Georgia Tech96.8
84Marshall96.7
85Troy95.4
86Ball St.95.3
87Syracuse94.9
88East Carolina94.6
89Illinois94.5
90U A B94.2
91Kent St.94.0
92Memphis93.7
93Hawaii93.1
94Florida Atlantic92.5
95Arizona92.2
96Georgia St.91.7
97South Alabama91.4
98Eastern Michigan91.0
99Arkansas St.90.1
100Utah St.89.8
101Western Michigan89.7
102Northern Illinois88.9
103Louisiana Tech88.7
104Duke88.5
105Ohio88.3
106USF88.2
107Texas St.87.8
108Vanderbilt87.0
109Western Kentucky86.2
110Middle Tennessee86.1
111Georgia Southern85.9
112Colorado St.85.3
113Rice84.8
114New Mexico84.8
115U N L V84.7
116Navy84.6
117Kansas84.5
118Southern Miss.83.4
119North Texas82.4
120Charlotte80.9
121Florida Int’l.80.6
122Temple80.4
123U T E P76.6
124UL-Monroe75.6
125Akron75.2
126UMass72.8
127Bowling Green72.4
128Old Dominion72.3
129New Mexico St.69.4
130Connecticut67.7

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati119.0118.0120.6119.2
UCF103.6102.5105.9104.0
Tulane102.7101.4104.5102.9
Houston101.6100.2101.9101.2
Tulsa98.498.698.198.4
SMU96.597.597.697.2
East Carolina94.693.795.494.6
Memphis92.993.594.793.7
USF88.687.788.388.2
Navy85.184.384.584.6
Temple79.681.180.480.4

AAC Averages96.696.297.496.8

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.6121.0123.3121.7
NC State108.6107.8108.0108.1
Wake Forest107.2106.0107.3106.8
Boston College104.5104.9104.9104.8
Louisville101.4101.0102.6101.7
Florida St.101.0101.4101.4101.3
Syracuse95.495.294.294.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina116.7116.8119.7117.7
Miami (Fla.)113.8112.5114.1113.4
Virginia Tech107.8106.4106.4106.9
Virginia104.9106.9104.9105.6
Pittsburgh102.9103.9103.3103.3
Georgia Tech96.996.996.796.8
Duke88.589.887.388.5

ACC Averages105.0105.0105.3105.1

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma127.6125.0126.5126.4
Iowa St.121.1119.3121.4120.6
T C U114.9113.6114.6114.4
Texas115.0113.0113.9114.0
West Virginia114.5112.6111.6112.9
Oklahoma St.110.0109.6108.8109.5
Kansas St.105.8105.8104.7105.4
Baylor105.5105.1104.1104.9
Texas Tech102.9103.7102.1102.9
Kansas87.384.781.684.5

Big 12 Averages110.5109.2108.9109.5

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.118.8119.0120.8119.5
Penn St.114.7115.8117.4116.0
Indiana112.0111.9113.3112.4
Maryland111.0109.3108.3109.6
Michigan107.8108.9109.2108.6
Michigan St.106.5106.1105.8106.1
Rutgers99.4101.6100.2100.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa117.0116.5119.4117.6
Wisconsin114.1114.0116.0114.7
Purdue108.4107.8109.6108.6
Minnesota104.9106.0107.3106.0
Nebraska105.0105.5105.5105.3
Northwestern102.6102.5102.3102.5
Illinois94.294.694.794.5

Big Ten Averages108.3108.6109.3108.7

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.796.796.996.7
Florida Atlantic91.493.392.792.5
Western Kentucky85.287.086.486.2
Middle Tennessee85.785.587.186.1
Charlotte80.181.181.580.9
Florida Int’l.79.780.581.780.6
Old Dominion72.072.672.272.3

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A96.897.496.596.9
U A B94.594.293.994.2
Louisiana Tech89.089.687.688.7
Rice84.884.784.984.8
Southern Miss.82.684.283.483.4
North Texas82.782.482.082.4
U T E P77.077.775.176.6

CUSA Averages85.686.285.985.9

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
BYU110.2109.5111.1110.3
Notre Dame107.4108.6108.9108.3
Liberty105.6106.9107.8106.8
Army102.0102.0102.3102.1
UMass74.273.670.672.8
New Mexico St.69.870.667.869.4
Connecticut68.369.565.467.7

Indep. Averages91.191.590.691.1

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)99.797.496.697.9
Buffalo98.297.297.497.6
Kent St.93.695.593.094.0
Ohio87.289.188.588.3
Akron77.075.073.675.2
Bowling Green73.073.470.972.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan101.199.8100.2100.4
Toledo98.898.497.798.3
Ball St.96.296.193.695.3
Eastern Michigan92.790.989.591.0
Western Michigan90.090.388.889.7
Northern Illinois90.488.587.988.9

MAC Averages91.591.089.890.8

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.104.3103.8104.8104.3
Wyoming96.797.398.397.4
Air Force96.896.797.497.0
Utah St.89.590.689.389.8
Colorado St.85.385.185.485.3
New Mexico85.085.384.084.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.101.5100.9100.9101.1
Nevada99.9101.5100.3100.6
San Jose St.100.9101.099.4100.4
Fresno St.97.699.7100.699.3
Hawaii93.492.793.193.1
U N L V85.584.284.684.7

MWC Averages94.794.994.894.8

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon112.1113.4115.0113.5
Oregon St.106.2106.1106.5106.3
Washington104.6105.9106.3105.6
Stanford104.8105.9104.6105.1
Washington St.99.5100.399.199.6
California97.2101.5100.199.6

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C115.2115.0116.7115.7
U C L A112.7112.9113.3113.0
Arizona St.111.1112.0112.0111.7
Utah110.6110.6110.4110.5
Colorado106.7106.3105.6106.2
Arizona92.892.091.892.2

Pac-12 Averages106.1106.8106.8106.6

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia127.9127.9129.9128.5
Florida116.0117.9116.6116.8
Kentucky107.4109.2107.5108.0
Missouri106.1106.8105.8106.2
Tennessee102.6101.9102.6102.4
South Carolina101.9101.6101.2101.5
Vanderbilt87.686.886.787.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama132.4131.0133.5132.3
Auburn118.6117.4118.7118.2
Texas A&M117.3118.2117.9117.8
Ole Miss113.9114.0114.1114.0
Arkansas112.8112.5111.5112.3
L S U110.5111.7112.0111.4
Mississippi St.108.1108.3107.5108.0

SEC Averages111.7111.8111.8111.8

Sunbelt Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina109.8107.1110.3109.1
Appalachian St.102.2101.9104.4102.8
Troy95.195.495.795.4
Georgia St.92.391.491.591.7
Georgia Southern85.986.485.485.9

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana107.6105.3107.9106.9
South Alabama91.791.890.791.4
Arkansas St.90.191.189.290.1
Texas St.89.186.987.487.8
UL-Monroe76.276.573.975.6

Sun Averages94.093.493.693.7

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.8
2Big 12109.5
3Big Ten108.7
4Pac-12106.6
5Atlantic Coast105.1
6American Athletic96.8
7Mountain West94.8
8Sun Belt93.7
9Independents91.1
10Mid-American90.8
11Conference USA85.9

Saturday’s TV Games of Interest

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 Noon

Indiana vs. Cincinnati: The Bearcats could pick up some much needed schedule strength with a road win against the Hoosiers, although Indiana’s big loss to Iowa may not make a CU win all that influential to the Selection Committee down the road. As of this publication, it has not been decided if this will be the ABC or ESPN game.

Buffalo vs. Coastal Carolina: Why do we call this important? Coastal Carolina has a chance to run the table for a second consecutive regular season, and this figures to possibly be their second toughest game on their schedule. If the Chanticleers win this one on the road, then possible a road game against Appalachian State on October 20 will be all that stands in CCU’s way of going 12-0 and competing for a NY6 Bowl. This game will be on ESPN2 or ESPNU.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska: We don’t expect an exciting game in this one, but it marks a very important 50th anniversary. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, the number one Cornhuskers visited Norman to face the number two Sooners in the “Game of the Century.” We believe it was the game of the second half of the century, as the 1946 Army-Notre Dame game at Yankee Stadium was just as big.

On that great day 50 years ago, the lead changed hands three times with Nebraska tailback Jeff Kinney diving into the end zone late in the fourth quarter to give the ‘Huskers the 35-31 win. Oklahoma went on to the Sugar Bowl and destroyed a 9-1 Auburn team that had Heisman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan at quarterback. The final score was 40-22, but it was 40-6 before Coach Chuck Fairbanks emptied his bench.

Nebraska met undefeated Alabama in the Orange Bowl for the national title. The game was a blowout by halftime, as Nebraska cruised to a 38-6 win. Nebraska finished first in the polls, and Oklahoma finished #2. Colorado, which only lost to Nebraska and Oklahoma edged Alabama for #3, while the Tide fell to #4. This was the only time in history that the #1 team beat the #’s 2, 3, and 4 teams in a season.

As for this year’s game, Oklahoma should win by a lopsided score, but maybe Nebraska will play its best game under Coach Scott Frost and make it interesting. Catch this game on Fox.

West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies look strong enough defensively to compete with all their ACC brethren, while West Virginia is a work in progress under second year coach Neal Brown. The Mountaineers are a different team at Mountaineer Field than they are on the road. This should be a stern test for Justin Fuente’s squad. This one airs on FS1.

3:30 PM

Florida vs. Alabama: Florida might have a bit of a quarterback controversy between starter Emory Jones and exciting backup Anthony Richardson. Jones tossed two interceptions against South Florida’s defense. Richardson ran for 115 yards and a touchdown on just four carries, and he was three for three for 152 yards and two touchdowns through the air.

Alabama has no controversies. The Tide look unstoppable with what should be a rebuilding year. Can they manhandle the Gators in Gainesville? A 20+ – point win looks highly possible. This game is CBS’s first SEC game of the season.

7:30 PM

Penn St. vs. Auburn: This is Bryan Harsin’s first test as Auburn’s head coach. Penn State is not all the way back as a power, but playing them at Happy Valley is quite difficult. Expect a potentially lower scoring game, but it should be highly competitive and worth watching. It’s the ABC prime time game.

10:15 PM

BYU vs. Arizona St.: After dominating Utah Saturday night, this BYU team looks just as tough or even tougher in 2021 than it looked in 2020 with an All-American quarterback now starting for the New York Jets. Meanwhile, Arizona State has quietly started 2-0 with two creampuffs.

The Sun Devils have withstood some major accusations with potential illegal recruiting, so bad, that an insider has claimed that an incredible tell-all book about the transgressions would be a bestseller.

This figures to be ASU’s last chance for multiple seasons to make hay before their sun sets with numerous punishments, that is if the NCAA has any investigators remaining. This game airs on ESPN.

10:45 PM

UCLA vs. Fresno St.: After Saturday’s Oregon win at Ohio State, Fresno State’s close loss to the Ducks on September 4 looked a lot more impressive. The Bulldogs won’t be intimidated by the 2-0 Bruins, coming off a big win over LSU plus a week off.

UCLA didn’t need the week off after beating LSU at the Rose Bowl, but the Bruins won’t be hurt by the bye week. This should be an action-packed and exciting game, and Fresno State could still be there in the fourth quarter with a chance to win. Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

Wide Variety In Styles This Year

The up-tempo offenses of the recent decade have some new company with teams going the other way. The hurry-up no huddle teams are still to be found in great numbers. However, some coaches are killing the clock trying to play ball-control and taking all the time off the play clock between plays.

Here’s an exceptional case in point to show the extremes from yesterday. Central Michigan played ball-control yesterday against FCS opponent Robert Morris. They gave RMU just 38 scrimmage plays (30 runs and 8 passes). The total of 119 plays looked like a game from the 1950s. In Madison, WI, Eastern Michigan was also held to 38 plays and 92 total yards against the Badgers in a game that had just 113 total plays. Several additional games were limited to less than 130 scrimmage plays, something that has been a rarity in recent seasons. Troy and Liberty combined for just 114 scrimmage plays.

At the other extreme, Marshall did something rarely done in college football history. They ran 100 plays in their win over UNC Central. They gained 700 yards. Arkansas State just missed 100 with 99 plays; they scored 50 points against Memphis, and they lost! North Texas had 96 plays against SMU and scored just 12 points.

July 20, 2021

Adjusting Teams Due To The Transfer Portal

The Transfer Portal Giveth And Taketh Away

Like a lord of the gridiron, the new transfer portal has wreaked havoc on the overall landscape of college football.  We have recently completed updating the effect on the PiRate Ratings for all the transfers that have both left a former school and chosen a new destination for 2021.  Among those that have entered the transfer portal, there are a handful of point spread-moving talents that have not officially chosen a new school.  A trio of what we call 15+ talents on a rating scale of 0-20 are leaning to schools but have yet to officially sign.  These players will affect our ratings when they do sign.

The PiRate Ratings adjusted the talent levels of the teams by considering the players entering the Transfer Portal like they were graduating seniors.  As for the entry to a new team, the field had to be taken on a case by case basis.  The players that played 1 to 4 games last year are classified as redshirt players and rated as such.  There are others that redshirted without playing any games last year, and they are rated a little differently than the 1-4 game players.  We take these 0-game players, and if they rate 15 or above in talent, they become the equivalent of a hot freshman expected to contribute immediately, like Trevor Lawrence or Hershel Walker.

For the rest of the group of experienced college players, we consider these as regular talent added at what we consider full strength.  If a defensive end that started for a Power Conference team last year or the year before becomes a starter at a new Power Conference team, the new team is graded like the new player is a returning starter, which is optimal for the team.  If the Power Conference starter moves to a Group of 5 team, there is a bonus score if that player is expected to be the starter.

All transfers are not only rated for their talent, but there is a positional adjustment as well.  The starting QB from a Power 5 team is a little more important than the starting punter.  We use the accepted advanced metric positional hierarchy used in pro football and put our own stamp on it;  the hierarchy goes:

  1. Quarterback
  2. Top Outside Pass Rusher (DE or OLB)
  3. Blind-side Tackle (Left tackle for Right-hand QB)
  4. Top Cover Cornerback
  5. #1 Wide Receiver
  6. Defensive Tackle
  7. Running Back
  8. #2 Outside Pass Rusher (DE or OLB)
  9. Middle/Inside Linebacker
  10. Tight End
  11. Free Safety
  12. Weakside Linebacker (or Nickel Back)
  13. Right Tackle (or LT for left-handed QB)
  14. #2 Cornerback
  15. Right Guard
  16. #2 Wide Receiver
  17. Center
  18. Strong Safety
  19. Strongside Linebacker
  20. Left Guard
  21. Nose Tackle
  22. #3 Wide Receiver
  23. Kicker
  24. Punter
  25. Return Specialist

It isn’t exactly cut and dry, as we have to analyze each team to see if their style of play is a pro-style.  For teams that run the option, either from the spread or with a QB under center, the positional adjustment is a bit different.  What it adds up to is a lot of extra work, but without this work, the preseason power ratings would be too inaccurate to be useful.  

Let’s look at an example of a couple of teams that have seen their historical preseason power rating altered by the Transfer Portal.  

The Auburn Tigers have a new coaching staff with Bryan Harsin coming in from Boise State.  Harsin hired two gems as his coordinators, both with extensive SEC experience.  Offensive Coordinator Mike Bobo and Defensive Coordinator Derek Mason are like having two extra head coaches on staff, and this generates a movement in the preseason rating.  But, we must also count the positives that former head coach Gus Malzahn and Kevin Steele brought to Auburn and make a coaching adjustment score from the January Citrus Bowl to the start of this season.  

Now, take a look at the key transfers for Auburn as the 2021 season nears.  Wide receiver Hal Presley left for Baylor.  He’s a redshirt freshman who played 0 games last year.  

Big Cat Bryant had three QB sacks, an interception, a couple of QB hurries, and 17 tackles at his defensive tackle position.  His leaving to join Malzahn at Central Florida is a bigger loss than Presley as it applies to week 1 of the 2021 season.  

Daquan Newkirk is a senior for the second year and put up similar numbers to Bryant, while being able to play both defensive tackle and defensive end.  His loss to SEC rival Florida hurts the Tigers a tad more.  

Running back D.J. Williams was only Auburn’s third option last year, but he has some worth.  If you follow the game rabidly like we do, you might remember Williams putting a hurt on #1 LSU two years ago, as his 150+ total yards led to Auburn almost knocking off the eventual national champion.  Florida State will get more out of him than Auburn would this year.

Safety Chris Thompson, Jr. was a freshman who saw action in enough games to be considered a sophomore in experience, but he will still be a freshman at his new school, USC.  Thompson rates as a 16 on our talent scale, so he counts like adding a Trevor Lawrence or Hershel Walker freshman to the Trojans.

These five players are the five that can actually move a team’s rating by more than 0.3 points, and together, the quintet reduces Auburn’s overall positional-adjusted talent score by 177 basis points.

Now let’s look at the key players that Auburn gained through the Portal.  We count seven players as being talented enough to improve the War Eagles’ point spread by 0.3 or more points.

They picked up a talented all-star safety from FCS Southeast Missouri in Bydarrius Knighten, who has NFL potential and needs to showcase his talents on the big stage.

Knighten will be joined by a former SEC starting safety in Vanderbilt’s Donovan Kaufman.  Kaufman played just two games in 2020 before a medical issue forced the freshman’s season to end.  He reunites with his former coach and should compete for a starting job at safety and as a return specialist.  Having two safeties with this amount of talent come on board awards a little bonus for the defensive backfield.

We aren’t done with the secondary just yet.  The best transfer of the defensive backfield is former West Virginia starting cornerback Dreshun Miller, a graduate 5th year player.  He started multiple games inside Big 12 play as well as having an excellent career at Eastern Arizona Junior College.

Staying on the defensive side, Auburn adds Kansas defensive end Marcus Harris.  Harris started multiple games for the Jayhawks last year and in 8 games, he had 7 ½ tackles for loss.  

Now, on the offensive side of the ball, there are a lot of specialized calculations to make because Auburn picked up a quarterback with starting experience in the SEC.  T.J. Finley comes to the Plains from LSU, where he started after Myles Brennan was lost for the year.  However, Auburn still has two-year regular Bo Nix as their expected starter just before August practices commence.  There should be a heated race for the starting job in the Bobo offense, but Nix will most likely be taking the snaps when Auburn hosts Akron on September 4.  Finley’s contribution might be limited, but on the other hand, if he wins the battle to start, he might be the most significant addition to the team.  It leaves us having to consider many possibilities before arriving at a score for Finley.

Redshirt freshman Jordan Ingram returns to the state where he was a star running back in high school after not seeing action at Central Michigan last year.  Ingram is not expected to see a great deal of action with Auburn’s top two running backs returning, but he’s talented enough to make a positive contribution.

Finally, there is journeyman wide receiver Demetris Robertson.  He’s the most difficult player in the entire Portal to grade.  Starting from the beginning, Robertson was a 5-star recruit and the top receiver in his recruiting class when he committed to Alabama as a highschool senior.  He ended up signing with California and shredded the Pac-12 as a true freshman.  He suffered an injury as a sophomore and played in just two games.  He then transferred to Georgia, where he was somewhat of a disappointment the last two seasons.  He was expected to be a fourth receiver for the Bulldogs before transferring to Auburn two weeks ago.  There’s another big issue though; he’s facing multiple felony charges, which may be why he entered the Portal near the deadline, because University of Georgia rules may have forced his ineligibility.  If Robertson can play a full season for Auburn, he will contribute to the Bobo offense.  But, he may never get a chance to play a game!  That’s a large subset of possibilities to calculate into the preseason equation.

All told, the incoming players on Auburn’s Transfer Portal list sum to 258 basis points with the defensive backfield bonus included.  Factor in the loss of 177 basis points from the players transferring out, and you get a surplus of 81 basis points improvement through the transfer portal.  Using our talent algorithm, Auburn expects to gain 4.1 power rating points in this area. 

For example number two, let’s inspect Oklahoma without delving into all the plot twists we showed you with Auburn.

Oklahoma lost seven players that will negatively affect their talent score by enough points to matter.  Additionally, at two positions, they lost multiple players to the Portal.  Safety Brendan Radley-Hiles had 115 career tackles in his time in Norman, while hybrid safety/linebacker Robert Barnes took four years of experience to Colorado.  Wide Receiver Jalin Conyers did not play as a freshman but he has NFL potential at Wide Receiver or Tight End and might eventually cost Oklahoma more down the road than they will in September of this year.  Losing wide receiver Charleston Rambo will hurt the Sooners in week one. Not affecting Oklahoma at all for 2021 is former tight end Grant Calcaterra, who retired from football at the end of 2019 after multiple concussions, but he un-retired and transferred to Auburn before the coaching change saw him transfer again to SMU.

The Sooners lost a 4-star tackle to Louisiana-Monroe in Stacey Wilkins.  Wilkins has not played for the Sooners, and his loss will be felt down the road, but it will be just the minimum to matter in 2021.  

Finally, there is quarterback Tanner Mordecai.  The fourth year sophomore was going to be a spectator watching All-American Spencer Rattler lead the Sooners, so Mordecai joined Calcaterra at SMU.  This has potential to affect Oklahoma should Rattler suffer an injury.  The #2 QB at a passing school is as important as the #2, #3, and #4 running backs at a running school.

The total loss in basis points for Oklahoma is 272, which is enough to affect the outcome of a game or two before we look at who the Sooners picked up.  The five players that transferred into Norman are the best quintet in the nation.  Former Tennessee running back Eric Gray and former LSU running back Kevontre Bradford, who has speed in the Chris Johnson CJ2K range, gives the Sooners a national top five running back corps when you add former starter Kennedy Brooks.  The Sooners’ running game combined with Rattler’s passing ability into a possible 45-points per game offense.

There is one more offensive stalwart to add to the mix, as former 5-star tackle recruit Wanya Morris started for two years at Tennessee and should step in and start at the all-important blind-side tackle.  Oklahoma’s potential to average 45 ppg may also come with consistency.

The defense added safety Key Lawrence, the third former Tennessee Vol to matriculate to Oklahoma.  Lawrence saw considerable action on defense and special teams as a true freshman last year.  He will do so for Oklahoma in 2021.

All told, the Sooners gain 200 basis points from incoming transfers, and combining it with the 272 lost, the net change is -72 basis points on transfers alone.  This equals about 3.9 points lost in power rating.

Some of the teams expected to profit the most off the Transfer portal in 2021 include: Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, Miami (Fla.), Penn State, SMU, South Carolina, Texas Tech, UCLA, USC,   Teams that lost considerable talent include: Clemson, Florida State, LSU, Memphis, Tennessee, and Texas.

This adjustment makes up just one part of a multiple part adjustment to the power ratings for each of the 130 FBS teams.  In the case of Clemson losing 245 basis points of talent, fear not for the Tigers.  They still have more than enough talent and added enough from past recruiting classes to make it back to the College Football Playoffs in 2021-2022.

March 3, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:40 am

Wednesday, March 3, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
La SalleSaint Joseph’s0.6
George WashingtonFordham4.3
TulaneWichita St.-4.5
SyracuseClemson0.8
Notre DameNC St.2.4
Florida St.Boston College14.9
Seton HallConnecticut0.2
St. John’sProvidence2.6
VillanovaCreighton1.6
Eastern WashingtonIdaho St.13.7
Penn St.Minnesota3.1
NorthwesternMaryland-2.6
North Carolina A&TSouth Carolina St.12.0
North Carolina CentralFlorida A&M0.4
Colorado St.New Mexico18.8
UNLVSan Diego St.-12.3
WagnerMerrimack6.1
BelmontSIU Edwardsville16.4
Morehead St.Southeast Missouri St.8.7
UtahOregon St.3.8
OregonUCLA2.4
USCStanford7.7
Boston ULehigh7.2
FloridaMissouri4.9
Texas A&MMississippi St.-3.7
Sam Houston St.Texas A&M-CC14.7
New OrleansNorthwestern St.3.0
Houston BaptistIncarnate Word0.4
Central ArkansasSoutheast Louisiana1.5
Stephen F. AustinAbilene Christian-3.1

February 26, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Friday, February 26, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
St. BonaventureGeorge Washington15.2
Saint LouisRichmond2.2
CincinnatiTulane5.3
StetsonNorth Florida4.6
Kennesaw St.Florida Gulf Coast-7.7
Northern ArizonaSouthern Utah-7.2
IdahoMontana St.-13.0
Penn St.Purdue0.3
Cal PolyUC Davis-7.1
UC IrvineUC San Diego9.8
Cal St. BakersfieldCal St. Northridge10.8
UC RiversideUCSB-2.3
HawaiiLong Beach State7.3
James MadisonDrexel1.9
MarshallNorth Texas3.5
Old DominionMiddle Tennessee9.6
UTSAUAB-3.9
Louisiana TechRice9.1
Southern MissFlorida Atlantic-0.2
SienaManhattan10.7
Saint Peter’sRider10.5
AkronBowling Green4.1
BradleyDrake-7.0
EvansvilleMissouri St.-7.2
ValparaisoIndiana St.-3.6
Loyola (Chi.)Southern Illinois21.3
Illinois St.Northern Iowa1.4
Utah St.Nevada6.8
UNLVFresno St.4.8
Central ConnecticutWagner-9.5
BryantLong Island University8.2
MerrimackSt. Francis (NY)2.8
Sacred HeartFairleigh Dickinson0.9
Texas St.UL Monroe10.1
Georgia SouthernAppalachian St.-0.9
UT ArlingtonArkansas St.2.1
TroyCoastal Carolina-5.6
Little RockLouisiana0.1
South AlabamaGeorgia St.-1.9
DenverOmaha-1.6
South Dakota St.UM Kansas City8.7
Utah ValleyUT Rio Grande Valley1.1
TarletonNew Mexico St.-6.4
SeattleGrand Canyon-6.5

Coming Later Friday: Updated Bracketology. There was considerable movement in the field of 68 since our Monday update. Teams like Duke, Michigan St., and North Carolina St. are making late pushes to sneak into the field. The first conference tournament began last night, and more tourneys will commence in the next few days, as March Madness lite begins Monday.

The PiRates will be heading down to the galley to make a big bowl of stew and start crunching the numbers that will become Bracketnomics 2021. The recipe has changed–for the Bracketnomics, not the stew.

February 21, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:00 am

Sunday, February 21, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
George WashingtonRhode Island-8.7
St. BonaventureDavidson4.1
HoustonCincinnati13.0
TempleSouth Florida1.1
XavierButler9.1
Ohio St.Michigan0.7
RutgersMaryland0.1
IowaPenn St.11.0
NorthwesternWisconsin-3.8
DrakeEvansville15.7
Southern IllinoisValparaiso0.3
San Jose St.UNLV-9.2
WagnerSt. Francis (Pa)6.6
ColgateBoston U14.1
AmericanNavy-3.0

Note: Big Announcement Coming Later Today!

February 14, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 14, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
CincinnatiCentral Florida3.5
South FloridaTulane5.1
SMUWichita St.4.9
Georgia TechPittsburgh3.5
Notre DameMiami (Fla.)8.0
Seton HallMarquette7.3
WisconsinMichigan-2.5
Penn St.Nebraska10.9
MarylandMinnesota0.1
Arizona St.Oregon St.5.1

November 14, 2020

Update College Football TV Schedule For November 14, 2020

Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMABCMichigan St.Indiana
12:00 PMFOXWest VirginiaTCU
12:00 PMESPN2TulaneArmy
12:00 PMESPNVirginia TechMiami (Fla.)
12:00 PMFS1NebraskaPenn St.
12:00 PMCBSSNMarshallMiddle Tenn.
12:00 PMSECNKentuckyVanderbilt
12:00 PMACCNNorth CarolinaWake Forest

1:00 PM

BTN

Rutgers

Illinois

3:30 PM

ABC

Boston College

Notre Dame
3:30 PMESPNStanfordColorado
3:30 PMESPN2HoustonS. Florida
3:30 PMFOXArizonaUSC
3:30 PMCBSSNWestern Ky.Southern Miss.
3:30 PMACCNVirginiaLouisville

4:00 PM

FS1

Texas Tech

Baylor

5:00 PM

BTN

Purdue

Northwestern

7:00 PM

FOX

Washington St.

Oregon
7:00 PMESPNFloridaArkansas
7:00 PMESPN2TulsaSMU

7:30 PM

ABC

Michigan

Wisconsin
7:30 PMESPNUCentral FloridaTemple
7:30 PMSECNOle MissSouth Carolina
7:30 PMACCNNC St.Florida St.

11:00 PM

FS1

Washington

Oregon St.
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