PiRate College Football Ratings: November 3, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 5
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Kent St.	2.8	3.2	3.2
Western Michigan	Ball St.	10.9	10.5	10.8
Wednesday	November 6
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Miami (O)	7.4	7.8	7.5
Thursday	November 7
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana	-11.7	-10.7	-12.1
South Florida	Temple	-3.9	-1.8	-4.3
Friday	November 8
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon St.	Washington	-11.6	-10.2	-12.9
Tulsa	Central Florida	-18.6	-17.1	-18.3
Saturday	November 9
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	LSU	9.2	8.4	9.9
Arizona St.	USC	2.9	1.8	3.1
Arkansas	Western Kentucky	5.8	5.1	3.9
Army	Massachusetts	38.5	36.9	39.1
Boise St.	Wyoming	9.9	7.7	9.6
Boston College	Florida St.	2.6	2.4	3.0
BYU	Liberty	17.2	15.9	17.4
California	Washington St.	-7.1	-6.7	-7.3
Cincinnati	Connecticut	38.8	34.5	40.2
Colorado	Stanford	-5.5	-5.1	-5.6
Duke	Notre Dame	-7.7	-6.5	-7.3
Florida	Vanderbilt	28.5	26.9	29.3
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	9.4	9.5	10.9
Fresno St.	Utah St.	-1.0	0.9	-1.2
Georgia	Missouri	18.1	18.6	18.6
Hawaii	San Jose St.	12.0	11.5	11.1
Kentucky	Tennessee	2.2	1.0	2.0
Louisiana Tech	North Texas	6.4	7.1	6.2
Miami (Fla.)	Louisville	10.7	10.4	11.8
Michigan St.	Illinois	14.0	12.1	13.9
Minnesota	Penn St.	-3.9	-3.1	-4.5
New Mexico	Air Force	-21.4	-20.3	-23.4
North Carolina St.	Clemson	-35.7	-33.8	-36.9
Northwestern	Purdue	1.5	0.5	0.7
Ohio St.	Maryland	42.4	42.6	44.9
Oklahoma	Iowa St.	11.8	10.3	11.2
Old Dominion	UTSA	0.7	-1.1	0.9
Ole Miss	New Mexico St.	33.0	30.0	32.9
San Diego St.	Nevada	14.7	14.9	15.2
SMU	East Carolina	26.3	24.6	27.0
South Carolina	Appalachian St.	8.1	7.4	8.1
Southern Miss.	UAB	7.0	4.0	6.5
TCU	Baylor	-4.1	-1.7	-3.2
Texas	Kansas St.	0.7	1.0	0.6
Texas St.	South Alabama	9.8	7.8	9.8
Troy	Georgia Southern	-2.9	-2.1	-3.5
UL-Monroe	Georgia St.	-4.1	-5.0	-4.3
UTEP	Charlotte	-15.1	-11.5	-14.9
Virginia	Georgia Tech	15.8	17.6	15.9
Virginia Tech	Wake Forest	-1.5	-1.0	-1.5
West Virginia	Texas Tech	1.2	0.7	1.6
Wisconsin	Iowa	4.3	5.7	4.3

 

Special Game–150th Anniversary of College Football

Dartmouth and Princeton will play Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx at 3:30 PM EST.  The game is available on ESPNU, and both teams sport perfect 7-0 records in the FCS Division.  It will mark the 150th anniversary of college football.  Princeton (known then as the College of New Jersey until 1896) and Rutgers met for the first college game in November 6, 1869, and Rutgers won that game 6 goals to 4.

This might be the most important Ivy League game since 8-0-0 Harvard and 8-0-0 Yale battled to an unbelievable 29-29 tie to conclude the 1968 season.  Yale led 29-13 with less than a minute to play, and Harvard scored twice with successful two-point conversions to tie the game and claim part of the Ivy League Championship.

Dartmouth and Princeton have been the top two programs in recent Ivy League history.  Both teams have enjoyed some incredible seasons in the distant past as well.  The 1970 Darmouth team was the best in Ivy League history, as they won the Lambert Trophy for best overall team from the East and finished ranked in the top 20 in the nation after  finishing 9-0.  That Dartmouth team surrendered just 42 points all season, but they didn’t give up a point in their final four games.

Princeton was one of the final teams in major college football to use the old Single Wing offense.  The Tigers went 9-0 and won the Ivy League in 1964, but their 1950 and 1951 teams that went undefeated finished number six in the AP Poll, and star back Dick Kazmaier won the 1951 Heisman Trophy.

The Ivy League isn’t Division 1 any more, and the champion doesn’t even get to go to the FCS Playoffs, but this is still an incredible game worth watching if you have a second monitor to watch in addition to that other 3:30 PM game in Tuscaloosa, AL.

The PiRate Ratings do not rate FCS teams the same way as we rate FBS teams.  We can estimate a power rating based on a former PiRate Formula, which we used from 1980 to 1996.

The estimate for this game is: 

Dartmouth 19

Princeton 16

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	139.0	138.1	140.1	139.1
2	Clemson	135.3	133.0	136.3	134.9
3	Alabama	135.6	132.5	136.3	134.8
4	L S U	129.4	127.1	129.3	128.6
5	Georgia	126.7	124.8	126.7	126.1
6	Penn St.	124.9	124.1	125.2	124.8
7	Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6
8	Oklahoma	123.5	122.7	123.2	123.1
9	Michigan	123.0	121.6	123.3	122.6
10	Auburn	122.5	120.8	122.3	121.9
11	Oregon	121.2	121.3	122.5	121.7
12	Florida	122.8	119.9	122.3	121.6
13	Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2
14	Iowa	119.1	117.3	119.0	118.4
15	Minnesota	118.1	117.9	117.8	117.9
16	Notre Dame	116.4	114.7	116.0	115.7
17	Texas A&M	116.2	114.6	115.1	115.3
18	Iowa St.	114.8	115.4	115.0	115.1
19	Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5
20	Central Florida	113.5	112.8	114.2	113.5
21	Baylor	113.5	113.5	112.8	113.3
22	Washington St.	113.0	112.2	113.5	112.9
23	Kansas St.	112.3	112.2	112.3	112.3
24	Michigan St.	112.7	111.8	112.2	112.2
25	Mississippi St.	110.8	107.5	114.7	111.0
26	South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9
27	Missouri	111.6	109.2	111.1	110.6
28	Indiana	110.6	109.6	110.3	110.2
29	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.7	109.7	110.1
30	Texas	109.9	110.2	109.9	110.0
31	Tennessee	109.5	109.3	108.6	109.1
32	T C U	107.3	109.8	107.6	108.2
33	Kentucky	108.7	107.3	107.6	107.9
34	Virginia	107.7	107.8	107.9	107.8
35	U S C	107.3	107.8	107.6	107.6
36	Miami (Fla.)	107.2	106.8	108.3	107.4
37	Arizona St.	107.2	106.5	107.7	107.2
38	Cincinnati	107.0	106.0	107.4	106.8
39	Wake Forest	106.5	106.0	107.0	106.5
40	SMU	106.2	105.9	107.1	106.4
41	Memphis	105.9	105.9	106.7	106.2
42	Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1
43	Ole Miss	106.4	105.4	106.3	106.0
44	Boise St.	106.0	105.9	106.1	106.0
45	Pittsburgh	105.7	105.3	106.0	105.7
46	North Carolina	105.4	105.2	106.1	105.6
47	Duke	105.7	105.1	105.6	105.5
48	Air Force	103.7	105.0	104.5	104.4
49	Texas Tech	104.4	104.6	103.5	104.2
50	Stanford	104.0	103.3	103.7	103.7
51	Florida St.	103.6	103.5	103.6	103.6
52	Purdue	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3
53	BYU	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3
54	Boston College	103.2	102.9	103.6	103.2
55	Nebraska	103.1	103.6	102.3	103.0
56	California	102.8	102.4	103.3	102.8
57	West Virginia	102.7	102.3	102.1	102.3
58	Virginia Tech	102.0	102.0	102.5	102.2
59	Illinois	101.7	102.6	101.3	101.9
60	Northwestern	102.5	101.4	101.2	101.7
61	U C L A	101.7	101.6	101.5	101.6
62	Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4
63	Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.2	100.1
64	Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0
65	Wyoming	99.0	101.2	99.6	99.9
66	Louisville	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5
67	Navy	97.9	100.5	98.9	99.1
68	Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1
69	Maryland	99.6	98.5	98.2	98.8
70	Western Michigan	98.8	97.9	98.7	98.5
71	San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.7	98.4
72	Temple	98.3	97.5	99.1	98.3
73	Syracuse	98.5	97.7	97.8	98.0
74	Houston	97.0	97.9	99.1	98.0
75	Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7
76	Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.2	96.5
77	North Carolina St.	96.6	96.2	96.5	96.4
78	Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4
79	Florida Atlantic	95.6	95.5	96.9	96.0
80	Kansas	95.5	96.5	95.4	95.8
81	Fresno St.	95.2	96.2	95.6	95.7
82	Hawaii	95.2	96.6	94.3	95.4
83	Colorado	95.5	95.2	95.1	95.2
84	Georgia Tech	94.8	93.2	95.0	94.3
85	Ohio	94.4	93.5	94.9	94.3
86	Southern Miss.	94.6	93.3	94.8	94.2
87	Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.4	94.3	94.2
88	Army	94.1	94.2	93.4	93.9
89	Buffalo	92.9	93.6	94.4	93.6
90	Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8
91	Tulsa	91.8	92.7	92.9	92.5
92	Arkansas	92.2	92.2	91.6	92.0
93	South Florida	91.4	92.6	91.8	91.9
94	Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4
95	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4
96	Marshall	90.8	90.4	91.6	90.9
97	U A B	90.1	91.8	90.7	90.9
98	North Texas	90.6	90.2	91.1	90.6
99	Ball St.	90.4	89.9	90.4	90.2
100	Western Kentucky	89.4	90.2	90.8	90.1
101	Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.6	89.9
102	Middle Tennessee	89.8	89.0	89.9	89.6
103	Northern Illinois	89.5	88.7	89.6	89.3
104	Miami (Ohio)	89.5	88.2	89.9	89.2
105	Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7
106	Central Michigan	88.2	88.8	89.1	88.7
107	Colorado St.	87.1	90.7	87.7	88.5
108	San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3
109	Kent St.	87.6	87.4	87.9	87.6
110	Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.5	87.5	87.6
111	Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5
112	Nevada	86.2	87.7	85.5	86.5
113	Charlotte	86.1	86.4	86.5	86.3
114	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9
115	Eastern Michigan	84.2	84.3	84.5	84.4
116	Rutgers	84.1	83.8	82.9	83.6
117	U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5
118	East Carolina	82.9	84.3	83.1	83.4
119	Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7
120	New Mexico	79.8	82.2	78.5	80.2
121	Rice	79.5	80.4	78.7	79.6
122	New Mexico St.	76.4	78.5	76.4	77.1
123	Texas-San Antonio	75.6	77.7	75.5	76.2
124	South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1
125	Bowling Green	74.1	73.9	74.1	74.1
126	Old Dominion	73.8	74.0	73.9	73.9
127	Connecticut	71.2	74.5	70.2	72.0
128	U T E P	68.5	72.5	69.1	70.0
129	Akron	66.9	66.7	65.6	66.4
130	Massachusetts	58.6	60.3	57.3	58.7

 

PiRate Ratings For Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.5	112.8	114.2	113.5	4-1	7-2
Cincinnati	107.0	106.0	107.4	106.8	4-0	7-1
Temple	98.3	97.5	99.1	98.3	2-2	5-3
South Florida	91.4	92.6	91.8	91.9	2-2	4-4
East Carolina	82.9	84.3	83.1	83.4	0-5	3-6
Connecticut	71.2	74.5	70.2	72.0	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	106.2	105.9	107.1	106.4	4-1	8-1
Memphis	105.9	105.9	106.7	106.2	4-1	8-1
Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.2	100.1	3-2	6-3
Navy	97.9	100.5	98.9	99.1	5-1	7-1
Houston	97.0	97.9	99.1	98.0	1-4	3-6
Tulsa	91.8	92.7	92.9	92.5	0-5	2-7
AAC Averages	96.9	97.6	97.6	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.3	133.0	136.3	134.9	6-0	9-0
Wake Forest	106.5	106.0	107.0	106.5	3-1	7-1
Florida St.	103.6	103.5	103.6	103.6	3-4	4-5
Boston College	103.2	102.9	103.6	103.2	3-3	5-4
Louisville	99.6	99.4	99.5	99.5	3-2	5-3
Syracuse	98.5	97.7	97.8	98.0	0-5	3-6
North Carolina St.	96.6	96.2	96.5	96.4	1-3	4-4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.7	107.8	107.9	107.8	4-2	6-3
Miami (Fla.)	107.2	106.8	108.3	107.4	3-3	5-4
Pittsburgh	105.7	105.3	106.0	105.7	3-2	6-3
North Carolina	105.4	105.2	106.1	105.6	3-3	4-5
Duke	105.7	105.1	105.6	105.5	2-3	4-4
Virginia Tech	102.0	102.0	102.5	102.2	3-2	5-3
Georgia Tech	94.8	93.2	95.0	94.3	1-4	2-6
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.5	122.7	123.2	123.1	4-1	7-1
Iowa St.	114.8	115.4	115.0	115.1	3-2	5-3
Baylor	113.5	113.5	112.8	113.3	5-0	8-0
Kansas St.	112.3	112.2	112.3	112.3	3-2	6-2
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.7	109.7	110.1	3-3	6-3
Texas	109.9	110.2	109.9	110.0	3-2	5-3
T C U	107.3	109.8	107.6	108.2	2-3	4-4
Texas Tech	104.4	104.6	103.5	104.2	1-4	3-5
West Virginia	102.7	102.3	102.1	102.3	1-4	3-5
Kansas	95.5	96.5	95.4	95.8	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.4	109.8	109.1	109.4
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	139.0	138.1	140.1	139.1	5-0	8-0
Penn St.	124.9	124.1	125.2	124.8	5-0	8-0
Michigan	123.0	121.6	123.3	122.6	4-2	7-2
Michigan St.	112.7	111.8	112.2	112.2	2-3	4-4
Indiana	110.6	109.6	110.3	110.2	4-2	7-2
Maryland	99.6	98.5	98.2	98.8	1-5	3-6
Rutgers	84.1	83.8	82.9	83.6	0-6	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.4	120.0	120.3	120.2	3-2	6-2
Iowa	119.1	117.3	119.0	118.4	3-2	6-2
Minnesota	118.1	117.9	117.8	117.9	5-0	8-0
Purdue	103.6	103.4	102.9	103.3	2-4	3-6
Nebraska	103.1	103.6	102.3	103.0	2-4	4-5
Illinois	101.7	102.6	101.3	101.9	3-3	5-4
Northwestern	102.5	101.4	101.2	101.7	0-6	1-7
Big Ten Averages	111.6	111.0	111.2	111.3
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	95.6	95.5	96.9	96.0	4-1	6-3
Marshall	90.8	90.4	91.6	90.9	4-1	6-3
Western Kentucky	89.4	90.2	90.8	90.1	4-2	5-4
Middle Tennessee	89.8	89.0	89.9	89.6	2-3	3-6
Florida Int’l.	87.7	87.5	87.5	87.6	3-3	5-4
Charlotte	86.1	86.4	86.5	86.3	2-3	4-5
Old Dominion	73.8	74.0	73.9	73.9	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	93.3	94.8	94.2	3-1	5-3
Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.4	94.3	94.2	4-0	7-1
U A B	90.1	91.8	90.7	90.9	3-1	6-2
North Texas	90.6	90.2	91.1	90.6	3-2	4-5
Rice	79.5	80.4	78.7	79.6	0-5	0-9
Texas-San Antonio	75.6	77.7	75.5	76.2	2-2	3-5
U T E P	68.5	72.5	69.1	70.0	0-5	1-7
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	116.4	114.7	116.0	115.7	x	6-2
BYU	103.2	103.2	103.4	103.3	x	4-4
Army	94.1	94.2	93.4	93.9	x	3-6
Liberty	89.5	90.8	89.6	89.9	x	6-3
New Mexico St.	76.4	78.5	76.4	77.1	x	0-8
Massachusetts	58.6	60.3	57.3	58.7	x	1-8
Indep. Averages	89.7	90.3	89.3	89.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	94.4	93.5	94.9	94.3	3-1	4-4
Buffalo	92.9	93.6	94.4	93.6	3-2	5-4
Miami (Ohio)	89.5	88.2	89.9	89.2	3-1	4-4
Kent St.	87.6	87.4	87.9	87.6	2-2	3-5
Bowling Green	74.1	73.9	74.1	74.1	2-3	3-6
Akron	66.9	66.7	65.6	66.4	0-5	0-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.8	97.9	98.7	98.5	3-2	5-4
Ball St.	90.4	89.9	90.4	90.2	3-1	4-4
Northern Illinois	89.5	88.7	89.6	89.3	2-3	3-6
Toledo	88.4	88.7	89.1	88.7	2-2	5-3
Central Michigan	88.2	88.8	89.1	88.7	4-2	6-4
Eastern Michigan	84.2	84.3	84.5	84.4	1-4	4-5
MAC Averages	87.1	86.8	87.4	87.1
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.0	105.9	106.1	106.0	4-0	7-1
Air Force	103.7	105.0	104.5	104.4	4-1	7-2
Wyoming	99.0	101.2	99.6	99.9	3-1	6-2
Utah St.	99.2	98.4	99.8	99.1	3-1	4-4
Colorado St.	87.1	90.7	87.7	88.5	3-2	4-5
New Mexico	79.8	82.2	78.5	80.2	0-5	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.9	99.6	97.7	98.4	4-1	7-1
Fresno St.	95.2	96.2	95.6	95.7	2-2	4-4
Hawaii	95.2	96.6	94.3	95.4	2-3	5-4
San Jose St.	87.7	89.5	87.7	88.3	1-4	4-5
Nevada	86.2	87.7	85.5	86.5	2-3	5-4
U N L V	83.1	84.7	82.7	83.5	1-5	2-7
MWC Averages	93.3	94.8	93.3	93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	121.2	121.3	122.5	121.7	6-0	8-1
Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5	2-4	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	112.2	113.5	112.9	1-4	4-4
Stanford	104.0	103.3	103.7	103.7	3-3	4-4
California	102.8	102.4	103.3	102.8	1-4	4-4
Oregon St.	99.8	100.8	99.5	100.0	3-2	4-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6	5-1	8-1
U S C	107.3	107.8	107.6	107.6	4-2	5-4
Arizona St.	107.2	106.5	107.7	107.2	2-3	5-3
U C L A	101.7	101.6	101.5	101.6	4-2	4-5
Arizona	96.7	96.5	96.2	96.5	2-4	4-5
Colorado	95.5	95.2	95.1	95.2	1-5	3-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.3	107.0	107.5	107.3
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.7	124.8	126.7	126.1	4-1	7-1
Florida	122.8	119.9	122.3	121.6	5-2	7-2
South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9	3-4	4-5
Missouri	111.6	109.2	111.1	110.6	2-2	5-3
Tennessee	109.5	109.3	108.6	109.1	2-3	4-5
Kentucky	108.7	107.3	107.6	107.9	2-4	4-4
Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4	1-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.6	132.5	136.3	134.8	5-0	8-0
L S U	129.4	127.1	129.3	128.6	4-0	8-0
Auburn	122.5	120.8	122.3	121.9	4-2	7-2
Texas A&M	116.2	114.6	115.1	115.3	3-2	6-3
Mississippi St.	110.8	107.5	114.7	111.0	2-4	4-5
Ole Miss	106.4	105.4	106.3	106.0	2-4	3-6
Arkansas	92.2	92.2	91.6	92.0	0-6	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	112.6	114.2	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	106.6	105.6	106.0	106.1	4-1	7-1
Georgia Southern	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7	3-1	5-3
Georgia St.	92.5	93.8	92.2	92.8	3-1	6-2
Troy	91.6	92.1	90.5	91.4	1-3	3-5
Coastal Carolina	87.2	88.4	86.8	87.5	1-3	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.3	101.6	101.4	101.4	3-1	6-2
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.6	91.2	91.4	3-2	5-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.4	85.4	85.9	2-2	3-5
Texas St.	81.8	82.3	81.0	81.7	1-3	2-6
South Alabama	74.5	77.0	73.7	75.1	0-4	1-7
SBC Averages	91.0	91.6	90.5	91.0

 

Rating The Conferences

#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.7
2	Big Ten	111.3
3	Big 12	109.4
4	Pac-12	107.3
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American	97.3
7	Mountain West	93.8
8	Sun Belt	91.0
9	Independents	89.8
10	Mid-American	87.1
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

PiRate Rating Guess On Initial Top 4

Prediction on Selection Committee Choices on Tuesday
1	LSU
2	Ohio St.
3	Alabama
4	Penn St.

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Memphis
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Navy
5	SMU

Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Boise St.]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Tulane	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Oregon St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Southern Miss.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	Michigan
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Arizona St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Western Kentucky	[Fresno St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Illinois
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Ball St.]	Pittsburgh
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Wake Forest	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	Mississippi St.
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Louisville	Washington St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	[Stanford]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Appalachian St.	Air Force
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Central Florida	[Duke]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Indiana
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Wyoming
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	LSU
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

This Is The Weekend

We don’t really need to say anything.  If you are reading this publication, you already know how incredible this weekend will be in college football.  On a typical November 9 in prior years, the incredible Princeton-Dartmouth game at Yankee Stadium might be the marquee game of the weekend.  Unfortunately, it starts at the same time as the biggie at Bryant-Denny.  Let’s take a brief look at the games that may make you want to stay home on Saturday, throw some logs on the fireplace, enjoy your favorite snacks and beverages, and watch two to three games at the same time.

 

12 Noon EST

 

 

Penn St. (8-0) at Minnesota (8-0)–ABC

The winner stays in the hunt for a Playoff spot, while the loser probably falls out of the Rose Bowl race.  Minnesota hasn’t played in a November game that had this type of importance since they played at Purdue in November of 1967 with a Rose Bowl bid on the line.  Purdue clobbered the Gophers that day, and even though Minnesota beat undefeated Indiana the following week, when the season ended in a three-way tie for first, Indiana received the Rose Bowl bid because Minnesota and Purdue had been in the Rose Bowl more recently (It was the Hoosiers’ only Rose Bowl invitation).

Penn State has been in the Rose Bowl more recently, but the Nittany Lions would consider a trip to Pasadena this year to be a failure.  James Franklin has his team in line for the Playoffs if they could upset Ohio State on the November 23 and then win the Big Ten Championship.  Of course, the same holds true for the Gophers.  Wins over Penn State, Iowa, Wisconsin, and then Ohio State would definitely put Minnesota in the Playoffs.  Consider this game the equivalent of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

Baylor (8-0) at TCU (4-4)–FS1

This is a 100% definite trap game for the undefeated Bears.  Baylor hosts Oklahoma on November 16, and no matter how hard Coach Matt Rhule tries to convince his squad that TCU is good enough to beat them, the players are already counting down the days until the Sooners come to Waco.

TCU is on the verge of having to worry about where two more victories will come, so bowl eligibility is not yet a given in Forth Worth.  The Horned Frogs have to win two of their final four and have games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, as well as a home finale with West Virginia.  They will be underdogs in three of their final four and must upset somebody to get to a bowl.

 

 

3:30 PM EST

 

LSU (8-0) at Alabama (8-0)–CBS

The knock against LSU in recent years was that the Tigers were too conservative on the offensive attack, and defense and running couldn’t beat Alabama and other behemoths.  This year, LSU’s offense can light it up against anybody, including Alabama’s defense.

The rub is that with the increased offensive efficiency and quick scoring passing attack, the Tigers’ defense has been forced to play up to 20 additional snaps per game, and opponents are finding ways to move the ball on the former tough defense.

All that’s changed is that LSU wins games 42-27 instead of 27-12.  A 15-point victory is a 15-point victory.  In the SEC, talent at each of the two-deep offenses and defenses just mean more than whether a team can pass the ball for 300 yards and score 30 points or hold the opponents to 250 total yards and 14 points.

Alabama still has the superior overall talent in the two-deeps on both sides of the ball.  In the past, Alabama might have won this game 24-14.  We believe they will continue to dominate this series and win it 45-35.  A 10-point superior team is still 10 points better than the other team.

 

Dartmouth (7-0) vs. Princeton (7-0) @ Yankee Stadium in the Bronx–ESPNU

This is the 150th Anniversary of College Football, so it is worth tuning in to watch when and if the big game is not as exciting.  It isn’t the original Yankee Stadium, but Yankee Stadium has been the site of many great college football games including the incredible Army-Notre Dame game of 1946, which ended 0-0.

 

Kansas St. (6-2) at Texas (5-3)–ESPN

Both teams are 3-2 in the Big 12, and they are still mathematically in the race for the number two spot in the Conference Championship Game.  Kansas State holds the tiebreaker over Oklahoma, so if the Wildcats can win out, and Oklahoma loses to Baylor or Oklahoma State, the Wildcats will play for a chance to go to the Sugar Bowl.

This has been a down year for Texas, and the Longhorns could be falling far enough to be placed in a bowl game in Houston against those Aggies.  The Texas Bowl would love that, but the Longhorns wouldn’t.

 

Illinois (5-4) at Michigan St. (4-4)–FS1

Why do we consider this game so important?  Illinois was given up for dead in early October, as the Illini appeared to be headed to a 6th or 7th place finish in the Big Ten West, and Coach Lovie Smith was probably on the way out.  Illinois had defeated Akron and Connecticut, two of the bottom 10 teams in the nation, and they had lost to Eastern Michigan.  At 2-4, Illinois then upset Wisconsin and followed that up with an impressive win at Purdue and a four-touchdown trouncing of Rutgers.  The Illini need one more victory to go bowling.  They are likely to get it against Northwestern to close out the season, but if Illinois can win at Michigan State, they will move up a couple of places in the bowl pecking order.

Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is going to have to learn how to change or else he could be on his way toward retirement.  Dantonio is one of the lone holdovers to horse and buggy football.  Michigan State plays like it is still 1975, and the team that rushes for 200 yards and holds the other to less than 100 yards is going to win with relative ease.  That’s not how teams win these days.  If Sparty loses this game, there is a better than 50-50 chance that they will not get six wins or go to a bowl.  Even if they win this game, they may only be able to garner the lowly Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit.

 

Louisville (5-3) at Miami (Fla.) (5-4)–FS1

Louisville coach Scott Satterfield should receive some votes for ACC Coach of the Year, as the Cardinals were picked to finish last in the Atlantic Division, and they are most likely going to be bowl eligible.

Miami still has a small chance to win the Coastal Division, but a lot of things have to happen to make that a reality.  First and foremost is that the Hurricanes win their last three games.

The winner of this game becomes bowl eligible, and you should get the best from both teams, which will make this exciting enough to put an auxiliary monitor on this game.

 

4:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa (6-2) at Wisconsin (6-2)–Fox

Minnesota has not clinched the West Division in the Big Ten, so the winner of this game remains in contention for the flag, since both must still play the Gophers.  If Penn State wins the 12:00 game, then whoever wins this one will get a chance to play Minnesota for first place later in November.

Expect a hard-fought, defensive struggle in this one, and the weather is expected to be cold and windy.  If you like the old blood and guts games of the 1950’s (yes, we know we have some gray-haired readers), then this is the game for you.  It could be one of those 12-10 games.

 

 

7:30 PM EST

 

 

Tennessee (4-5) at Kentucky (4-4)–SEC Network

How about a career saving resurrection?  Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt was one step out the door in Knoxville a month ago.  At 1-4 with losses at home to Georgia State and BYU, the Vols looked like a potentially 2-10 or possible 1-11 team.

Tennessee was reborn after a blowout loss to Georgia.  Wins over Mississippi State, South Carolina, and UAB, and a loss to Alabama that was still in doubt into the fourth quarter has the Vols on the verge of becoming bowl eligible.

Kentucky began the season strong enough to contend for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Losing quarterback Terry Wilson probably cost the Wildcats two, possibly three wins to date, and Kentucky’s defense is not strong enough to hold Tennessee below 20 points in Lexington.  Can the Wildcats find some offense that they have not been able to find without Wilson under center?  A loss here will put the K-Cats under .500, but with Vanderbilt and UT-Martin following this game, the blue and white can still get to 6-6.

 

8:00 PM EST

 

 

Iowa State (5-3) at Oklahoma (7-1)–Fox

The last time Iowa State came to Norman, the Cyclones pulled off a major upset.  If they want to make the Big 12 Championship Game, they will have to do it again.  Of course, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week following their upset loss to Kansas State, so the Sooners are likely to play their best game of the season.

The question is, can Oklahoma’s defense stop Iowa State’s offense, and can the Sooners score at least 38 points in this game?

There’s another little issue in this game.  Oklahoma has a date at Baylor next week.  Even coming off a loss and a bye week, some of the Sooners may have a hard time thinking about Iowa State with the undefeated Bears coming up next week.  This should be an exciting game, especially under the lights at Owen Field.

 

 

10:15 PM EST

 

 

Wyoming (6-2) at Boise St. (7-1)–ESPN

Boise State has been a bit off in October and November.  The Broncos are not likely to earn the Group of 5 bid to a NY6 bowl, and they are now playing for their lives in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West.

Wyoming is a no-nonsense hard-hitting team that can wear teams down in the second half.  The Cowboys have enough talent to go to the Field of Blue and move into first place in the division.  If you are a night owl and stay up late on Saturday night watching games from the Rockies and West Coast, this is definitely one you should plan to watch.  Wyoming is coming into this game looking like they are sitting on their best production in the next few weeks.  We have this sneaky suspicion that the Cowboys will be in the lead in the fourth quarter in this game.

 

 

10:30 PM EST

 

 

Nevada (5-4) at San Diego St. (7-1)–ESPN2

San Diego State is in first place in the West Division of the Mountain West, but the Aztecs must play Nevada, Fresno State, and Hawaii in successive weeks, so even though Nevada is just 2-3 in conference play, the Wolf Pack are still alive in the division race.  This should be a relatively close game, and it could be decided on a late turnover or big play.  If you can stay up until 1:45 on the East Coast, you may be rewarded with some excitement to end your college football fix.

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 28, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	October 31
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Georgia Southern	16.9	16.3	17.3
Baylor	West Virginia	14.9	15.7	15.4
Friday	November 1
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Connecticut	Navy	-20.7	-19.8	-22.6
Saturday	November 2
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest	North Carolina St.	6.2	5.9	6.4
Massachusetts	Liberty	-24.7	-23.9	-26.1
Florida Int’l.	Old Dominion	17.4	16.9	17.3
Coastal Carolina	Troy	-2.6	-2.1	-2.3
Georgia Tech	Pittsburgh	-7.6	-9.1	-7.4
Purdue	Nebraska	3.5	2.6	3.7
Central Florida	Houston	19.9	18.3	18.7
Maryland	Michigan	-17.1	-16.4	-18.7
Indiana	Northwestern	7.1	7.1	8.0
Bowling Green	Akron	5.9	5.7	7.0
Illinois	Rutgers	19.3	20.6	19.8
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-24.6	-21.8	-25.2
Syracuse	Boston College	6.6	6.3	5.7
Eastern Michigan	Buffalo	-0.6	-1.1	-1.5
North Carolina	Virginia	1.8	1.6	2.8
Utah St.	BYU	4.4	3.6	5.2
Notre Dame	Virginia Tech	19.2	17.4	18.5
USC	Oregon	-5.7	-5.2	-6.6
UCLA	Colorado	7.9	7.8	7.6
Kansas	Kansas St.	-12.0	-10.9	-11.7
Louisiana	Texas St.	22.1	21.5	22.6
South Carolina	Vanderbilt	17.4	16.9	18.1
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	-7.2	-5.5	-6.5
Rice	Marshall	-8.4	-6.7	-10.0
Colorado St.	UNLV	4.3	6.5	5.1
Memphis	SMU	2.0	2.1	1.3
Texas A&M	UTSA	44.8	40.6	43.9
Air Force	Army	13.5	14.9	15.5
Arizona	Oregon St.	4.3	3.1	4.6
Tennessee	UAB	22.4	20.0	20.2
Auburn	Ole Miss	21.3	20.4	21.5
Florida (n)	Georgia	-3.5	-4.5	-3.8
Oklahoma St.	TCU	5.7	3.5	4.7
North Texas	UTEP	24.4	19.5	23.9
Tulane	Tulsa	10.9	10.8	10.1
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	-11.2	-7.3	-15.8
Charlotte	Middle Tennessee	-5.2	-4.0	-5.2
Western Kentucky	Florida Atlantic	-1.5	-0.3	-0.8
UL-Monroe	Arkansas St.	-2.6	-2.1	-2.4
Florida St.	Miami (Fla.)	2.1	2.9	1.5
Nevada	New Mexico	8.7	7.4	8.8
Washington	Utah	-6.3	-5.7	-6.2
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-16.1	-13.8	-16.7
Hawaii	Fresno St.	5.4	6.0	4.3
FBS vs.	FCS
Clemson	Wofford	48

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	138.7	137.8	139.8	138.8
2	Clemson	135.0	132.7	136.0	134.6
3	Alabama	135.3	132.2	136.0	134.5
4	L S U	129.1	126.8	129.0	128.3
5	Georgia	126.5	124.6	126.4	125.8
6	Penn St.	124.6	123.8	124.9	124.5
7	Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6
8	Auburn	123.7	122.0	123.7	123.1
9	Oklahoma	123.2	122.4	122.9	122.8
10	Florida	123.0	120.1	122.6	121.9
11	Michigan	121.5	119.9	121.8	121.1
12	Wisconsin	120.1	119.7	120.0	119.9
13	Oregon	118.4	118.4	119.6	118.8
14	Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1
15	Minnesota	117.8	117.6	117.5	117.6
16	Notre Dame	117.6	115.8	117.3	116.9
17	Texas A&M	117.4	115.6	116.4	116.5
18	Iowa St.	114.5	115.1	114.7	114.8
19	Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5
20	Baylor	114.3	114.5	113.9	114.2
21	Central Florida	113.7	113.0	114.5	113.7
22	Washington St.	112.7	111.9	113.2	112.6
23	Michigan St.	112.4	111.5	111.9	111.9
24	South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9
25	Missouri	111.3	108.9	110.8	110.3
26	Kansas St.	110.4	110.3	110.2	110.3
27	Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.5	110.0
28	U S C	109.6	110.2	110.0	110.0
29	Texas	109.6	109.9	109.6	109.7
30	Mississippi St.	109.1	105.5	113.1	109.2
31	Tennessee	109.5	109.1	108.3	109.0
32	Cincinnati	108.6	107.4	109.2	108.4
33	T C U	107.3	110.0	107.8	108.4
34	Indiana	108.8	107.7	108.4	108.3
35	Appalachian St.	108.7	107.8	108.4	108.3
36	Kentucky	108.4	107.0	107.3	107.6
37	Virginia	107.2	107.2	107.1	107.2
38	SMU	106.7	106.5	107.9	107.0
39	Arizona St.	106.9	106.2	107.4	106.9
40	Boise St.	106.4	106.1	106.7	106.4
41	North Carolina	105.9	105.8	106.9	106.2
42	Memphis	105.7	105.6	106.2	105.8
43	Florida St.	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7
44	Miami (Fla.)	105.5	104.9	106.4	105.6
45	Pittsburgh	105.6	105.3	105.7	105.5
46	Duke	105.4	104.8	105.3	105.2
47	Air Force	104.3	105.7	105.4	105.1
48	Ole Miss	105.5	104.5	105.2	105.1
49	Northwestern	104.6	103.6	103.4	103.9
50	Texas Tech	104.1	104.3	103.2	103.9
51	Wake Forest	103.8	103.2	104.1	103.7
52	Stanford	103.7	103.0	103.4	103.4
53	Purdue	103.6	103.3	102.9	103.3
54	Nebraska	103.1	103.7	102.3	103.0
55	Syracuse	103.4	102.7	102.8	103.0
56	California	102.5	102.1	103.0	102.5
57	Utah St.	102.5	101.7	103.3	102.5
58	West Virginia	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.9
59	Virginia Tech	101.3	101.4	101.7	101.5
60	Illinois	101.2	102.1	100.6	101.3
61	Louisiana	101.1	101.2	101.0	101.1
62	U C L A	101.0	100.8	100.6	100.8
63	Maryland	101.4	100.5	100.0	100.6
64	Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.1	100.1
65	Boston College	99.8	99.4	100.1	99.8
66	Wyoming	98.7	100.9	99.3	99.6
67	BYU	99.6	99.6	99.6	99.6
68	North Carolina St.	99.6	99.3	99.7	99.5
69	Louisville	99.3	99.1	99.2	99.2
70	Arizona	98.9	98.7	98.6	98.7
71	Western Michigan	98.6	97.7	98.5	98.3
72	San Diego St.	97.6	99.3	97.4	98.1
73	Temple	98.0	97.2	98.8	98.0
74	Oregon St.	97.6	98.6	97.1	97.8
75	Houston	96.8	97.7	98.8	97.7
76	Kansas	96.9	97.9	97.0	97.3
77	Navy	95.9	98.4	96.8	97.1
78	Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4
79	Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0
80	Hawaii	95.8	97.3	95.0	96.0
81	Fresno St.	94.9	95.8	95.2	95.3
82	Arkansas	94.9	95.2	94.2	94.8
83	Florida Atlantic	94.5	94.2	95.5	94.7
84	Georgia Tech	94.9	93.2	95.3	94.5
85	Georgia Southern	94.8	94.5	94.0	94.5
86	Ohio	94.2	93.3	94.7	94.1
87	Northern Illinois	94.3	93.4	94.5	94.1
88	Southern Miss.	94.4	93.1	94.6	94.0
89	Louisiana Tech	93.8	94.2	94.1	94.0
90	Army	93.8	93.8	92.8	93.5
91	Georgia St.	92.3	93.6	92.0	92.6
92	Tulsa	91.8	92.7	93.0	92.5
93	Troy	92.1	92.7	91.2	92.0
94	Middle Tennessee	91.9	91.1	92.2	91.7
95	South Florida	91.1	92.3	91.5	91.6
96	Western Kentucky	90.5	91.5	92.2	91.4
97	Buffalo	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1
98	U A B	90.1	92.0	91.0	91.1
99	Arkansas St.	91.1	91.3	90.8	91.1
100	Marshall	90.6	90.0	91.4	90.7
101	North Texas	90.5	89.8	90.8	90.4
102	Ball St.	90.2	89.7	90.2	90.0
103	Miami (Ohio)	89.3	88.0	89.7	89.0
104	Toledo	88.2	88.5	88.9	88.5
105	Liberty	87.9	89.0	88.0	88.3
106	Florida Int’l.	88.3	88.1	88.3	88.2
107	San Jose St.	87.3	89.3	87.1	87.9
108	Eastern Michigan	87.3	87.5	87.8	87.6
109	Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4
110	Colorado St.	85.9	89.6	86.4	87.3
111	Coastal Carolina	87.0	88.1	86.4	87.2
112	Nevada	86.1	87.4	85.2	86.2
113	Louisiana-Monroe	86.0	86.7	85.8	86.2
114	Central Michigan	84.7	85.4	85.5	85.2
115	U N L V	84.6	86.1	84.3	85.0
116	Charlotte	84.3	84.6	84.5	84.5
117	Rutgers	84.9	84.6	83.9	84.5
118	Texas St.	82.0	82.7	81.4	82.0
119	East Carolina	81.0	82.6	81.0	81.5
120	New Mexico	79.9	82.5	78.8	80.4
121	Rice	79.7	80.8	78.9	79.8
122	New Mexico St.	76.2	78.3	76.2	76.9
123	Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.0	74.5	75.4
124	South Alabama	74.3	76.8	73.5	74.9
125	Connecticut	73.2	76.6	72.3	74.0
126	Old Dominion	73.5	73.7	73.4	73.5
127	Bowling Green	72.7	72.4	72.6	72.6
128	U T E P	68.6	72.9	69.4	70.3
129	Akron	69.4	69.3	68.2	68.9
130	Massachusetts	60.7	62.6	59.4	60.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.7	113.0	114.5	113.7	3-1	6-2
Cincinnati	108.6	107.4	109.2	108.4	3-0	6-1
Temple	98.0	97.2	98.8	98.0	2-2	5-3
South Florida	91.1	92.3	91.5	91.6	2-2	4-4
East Carolina	81.0	82.6	81.0	81.5	0-4	3-5
Connecticut	73.2	76.6	72.3	74.0	0-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	106.7	106.5	107.9	107.0	4-0	8-0
Memphis	105.7	105.6	106.2	105.8	3-1	7-1
Tulane	99.7	100.5	100.1	100.1	2-2	5-3
Houston	96.8	97.7	98.8	97.7	1-3	3-5
Navy	95.9	98.4	96.8	97.1	4-1	6-1
Tulsa	91.8	92.7	93.0	92.5	0-4	2-6
AAC Averages	96.8	97.5	97.5	97.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	135.0	132.7	136.0	134.6	6-0	8-0
Florida St.	105.6	105.7	105.8	105.7	3-3	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	103.2	104.1	103.7	2-1	6-1
Syracuse	103.4	102.7	102.8	103.0	0-4	3-5
Boston College	99.8	99.4	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
North Carolina St.	99.6	99.3	99.7	99.5	1-2	4-3
Louisville	99.3	99.1	99.2	99.2	3-2	5-3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	107.2	107.2	107.1	107.2	3-2	5-3
North Carolina	105.9	105.8	106.9	106.2	3-2	4-4
Miami (Fla.)	105.5	104.9	106.4	105.6	2-3	4-4
Pittsburgh	105.6	105.3	105.7	105.5	2-2	5-3
Duke	105.4	104.8	105.3	105.2	2-3	4-4
Virginia Tech	101.3	101.4	101.7	101.5	3-2	5-2
Georgia Tech	94.9	93.2	95.3	94.5	1-3	2-5
ACC Averages	105.2	104.6	105.4	105.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.4	122.9	122.8	4-1	7-1
Iowa St.	114.5	115.1	114.7	114.8	3-2	5-3
Baylor	114.3	114.5	113.9	114.2	4-0	7-0
Kansas St.	110.4	110.3	110.2	110.3	2-2	5-2
Oklahoma St.	110.0	110.5	109.5	110.0	2-3	5-3
Texas	109.6	109.9	109.6	109.7	3-2	5-3
T C U	107.3	110.0	107.8	108.4	2-2	4-3
Texas Tech	104.1	104.3	103.2	103.9	1-4	3-5
West Virginia	102.4	101.8	101.5	101.9	1-3	3-4
Kansas	96.9	97.9	97.0	97.3	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	138.7	137.8	139.8	138.8	5-0	8-0
Penn St.	124.6	123.8	124.9	124.5	5-0	8-0
Michigan	121.5	119.9	121.8	121.1	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	112.4	111.5	111.9	111.9	2-3	4-4
Indiana	108.8	107.7	108.4	108.3	3-2	6-2
Maryland	101.4	100.5	100.0	100.6	1-4	3-5
Rutgers	84.9	84.6	83.9	84.5	0-5	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	120.1	119.7	120.0	119.9	3-2	6-2
Iowa	118.8	117.0	118.7	118.1	3-2	6-2
Minnesota	117.8	117.6	117.5	117.6	5-0	8-0
Northwestern	104.6	103.6	103.4	103.9	0-5	1-6
Purdue	103.6	103.3	102.9	103.3	1-4	2-6
Nebraska	103.1	103.7	102.3	103.0	2-3	4-4
Illinois	101.2	102.1	100.6	101.3	2-3	4-4
Big Ten Averages	111.5	110.9	111.1	111.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	94.5	94.2	95.5	94.7	3-1	5-3
Middle Tennessee	91.9	91.1	92.2	91.7	2-2	3-5
Western Kentucky	90.5	91.5	92.2	91.4	4-1	5-3
Marshall	90.6	90.0	91.4	90.7	3-1	5-3
Florida Int’l.	88.3	88.1	88.3	88.2	2-3	4-4
Charlotte	84.3	84.6	84.5	84.5	1-3	3-5
Old Dominion	73.5	73.7	73.4	73.5	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.4	93.1	94.6	94.0	3-1	5-3
Louisiana Tech	93.8	94.2	94.1	94.0	4-0	7-1
U A B	90.1	92.0	91.0	91.1	3-1	6-1
North Texas	90.5	89.8	90.8	90.4	2-2	3-5
Rice	79.7	80.8	78.9	79.8	0-4	0-8
Texas-San Antonio	74.7	77.0	74.5	75.4	2-2	3-4
U T E P	68.6	72.9	69.4	70.3	0-4	1-6
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	117.6	115.8	117.3	116.9	x	5-2
BYU	99.6	99.6	99.6	99.6	x	3-4
Army	93.8	93.8	92.8	93.5	x	3-5
Liberty	87.9	89.0	88.0	88.3	x	5-3
New Mexico St.	76.2	78.3	76.2	76.9	x	0-8
Massachusetts	60.7	62.6	59.4	60.9	x	1-7
Indep. Averages	89.3	89.8	88.9	89.3
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	94.2	93.3	94.7	94.1	3-1	4-4
Buffalo	90.5	91.1	91.8	91.1	2-2	4-4
Miami (Ohio)	89.3	88.0	89.7	89.0	3-1	4-4
Kent St.	87.4	87.2	87.7	87.4	2-2	3-5
Bowling Green	72.7	72.4	72.6	72.6	1-3	2-6
Akron	69.4	69.3	68.2	68.9	0-4	0-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.6	97.7	98.5	98.3	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	94.3	93.4	94.5	94.1	2-2	3-5
Ball St.	90.2	89.7	90.2	90.0	3-1	4-4
Toledo	88.2	88.5	88.9	88.5	2-2	5-3
Eastern Michigan	87.3	87.5	87.8	87.6	1-3	4-4
Central Michigan	84.7	85.4	85.5	85.2	3-2	5-4
MAC Averages	87.2	87.0	87.5	87.2
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.4	106.1	106.7	106.4	3-0	6-1
Air Force	104.3	105.7	105.4	105.1	4-1	6-2
Utah St.	102.5	101.7	103.3	102.5	3-1	4-3
Wyoming	98.7	100.9	99.3	99.6	3-1	6-2
Colorado St.	85.9	89.6	86.4	87.3	2-2	3-5
New Mexico	79.9	82.5	78.8	80.4	0-4	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
San Diego St.	97.6	99.3	97.4	98.1	4-1	7-1
Hawaii	95.8	97.3	95.0	96.0	2-2	5-3
Fresno St.	94.9	95.8	95.2	95.3	1-2	3-4
San Jose St.	87.3	89.3	87.1	87.9	1-3	4-4
Nevada	86.1	87.4	85.2	86.2	1-3	4-4
U N L V	84.6	86.1	84.3	85.0	1-4	2-6
MWC Averages	93.7	95.1	93.7	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	118.4	118.4	119.6	118.8	5-0	7-1
Washington	114.3	114.0	115.3	114.5	2-3	5-3
Washington St.	112.7	111.9	113.2	112.6	1-4	4-4
Stanford	103.7	103.0	103.4	103.4	3-3	4-4
California	102.5	102.1	103.0	102.5	1-4	4-4
Oregon St.	97.6	98.6	97.1	97.8	2-2	3-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	123.7	122.6	124.5	123.6	4-1	7-1
U S C	109.6	110.2	110.0	110.0	4-1	5-3
Arizona St.	106.9	106.2	107.4	106.9	2-3	5-3
U C L A	101.0	100.8	100.6	100.8	3-2	3-5
Arizona	98.9	98.7	98.6	98.7	2-3	4-4
Colorado	96.2	96.0	96.0	96.0	1-4	3-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.9	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.5	124.6	126.4	125.8	3-1	6-1
Florida	123.0	120.1	122.6	121.9	5-1	7-1
South Carolina	111.7	110.0	111.1	110.9	2-4	3-5
Missouri	111.3	108.9	110.8	110.3	2-2	5-3
Tennessee	109.5	109.1	108.3	109.0	2-3	3-5
Kentucky	108.4	107.0	107.3	107.6	2-4	4-4
Vanderbilt	97.3	96.0	96.0	96.4	1-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	132.2	136.0	134.5	5-0	8-0
L S U	129.1	126.8	129.0	128.3	4-0	8-0
Auburn	123.7	122.0	123.7	123.1	3-2	6-2
Texas A&M	117.4	115.6	116.4	116.5	3-2	5-3
Mississippi St.	109.1	105.5	113.1	109.2	1-4	3-5
Ole Miss	105.5	104.5	105.2	105.1	2-3	3-5
Arkansas	94.9	95.2	94.2	94.8	0-5	2-6
SEC Averages	114.5	112.7	114.3	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	108.7	107.8	108.4	108.3	4-0	7-0
Georgia Southern	94.8	94.5	94.0	94.5	2-1	4-3
Georgia St.	92.3	93.6	92.0	92.6	3-1	6-2
Troy	92.1	92.7	91.2	92.0	1-2	3-4
Coastal Carolina	87.0	88.1	86.4	87.2	0-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	101.1	101.2	101.0	101.1	2-1	5-2
Arkansas St.	91.1	91.3	90.8	91.1	2-2	4-4
Louisiana-Monroe	86.0	86.7	85.8	86.2	2-1	3-4
Texas St.	82.0	82.7	81.4	82.0	1-2	2-5
South Alabama	74.3	76.8	73.5	74.9	0-4	1-7
SBC Averages	90.9	91.5	90.5	91.0

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.8
2	Big Ten	111.2
3	Big 12	109.3
4	Pac-12	107.1
5	Atlantic Coast	105.1
6	American	97.3
7	Mountain West	94.2
8	Sun Belt	91.0
9	Independents	89.3
10	Mid-American	87.2
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	SMU
2	Appalachian St.
3	Cincinnati
4	Navy
5	Boise St.

 

This Week’s Look At Some Key Contenders Not Getting Enough Publicity

What a difference a strange weekend of football makes!  With Kansas State beating Oklahoma, and LSU taking care of business against Auburn, the playoff picture began to swing toward the SEC getting two teams into the Playoffs.  At the moment, the Big Ten still has three undefeated teams, so there is a chance that the Big Ten could get two teams into the Playoffs if the regular season ends with a 13-0 team and a 12-1 or 11-1 team.

Minnesota will get its chance to prove whether they truly are Golden Gophers or just pests digging a hole in the ground.  If  Minny can beat Penn State, and then the Gophers follow it up with wins at Iowa and at home against Wisconsin, then the least Minnesota could get for a postseason reward would be their first trip to the Rose Bowl since January of 1962.

Having closely watched and diagnosed every scrimmage play in Minnesota’s last two games, this team looks to be legitimate.  The Gophers have an excellent inside-outside running attack.  Their running backs hit the perimeter quickly with speed.  The Gophers can get yards between the tackles as well.  Of all the teams we have seen so far this year, Minnesota’s rushing attack is the most consistent among teams that do not use the option.

The Gopher passing attack is one of the best in the nation with Tanner Morgan just a fraction behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields in league passer efficiency.

The Gophers aren’t all offense.  The Minnesota defense is surrendering just 284 yards (13th best in the nation) and 20 points per game. But, the defense is on a roll.  After giving up 119 points in their first four games, UM has given up just 41 in the last four.

Penn State and Minnesota both have the week off to prepare for this big game.  Unfortunately, this is the same day as the Alabama-LSU game, so it will be second banana to the first of many “game of the years.”

 

Baylor is still undefeated, the final team from the Big 12 that can say that now that Oklahoma has fallen.  In order for Baylor to get to the playoffs, the Bears must run the table, and that means almost assuredly having to beat Oklahoma twice.  A split puts Baylor in either the Sugar Bowl or Cotton Bowl, if that it their only loss.

 

Out in the Pac-12, Utah and Oregon face key games this week.  Utah plays at Washington, while Oregon  plays at USC.  If both division leaders win, then they must be put in contention for a playoff spot if the Conference Championship Game winner is 12-1, while the runner-up is 11-2.

 

In the Group of 5 this week, SMU plays at Memphis, and the winner will be a co-leader with Cincinnati for the Cotton Bowl bid.  Appalachian State is still undefeated, but the Mountaineers will have to win out (including winning at South Carolina), while SMU will have to lose a game, before Appy has a chance to get to the Cotton Bowl. 

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

American Athletic

SMU held on to a narrow road win against Houston, so the Mustangs are the current top Group of 5 team in line to play at home in the Cotton Bowl.  Memphis is still alive only by a fluke missed chip-shot field goal by Tulsa.  Cincinnati and Navy still have shots at that Cotton Bowl bid, while Central Florida is still around with two losses should a bunch of teams lose in November.

East Carolina, Houston, and South Florida still have minute chances to get bowl eligible, but our ratings are calling for all three to miss out.  Tulane needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they must beat Tulsa this weekend, or the Green Wave could miss out.  Their final three games are tough.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Atlantic Coast

Clemson should be able to coast home with a 13-0 record and Playoff bid.  The Tigers should win their final four regular season games by margins of 20 or more every week.  The Coastal Division will probably send a 5-3 team to the ACC Championship Game, and other than North Carolina looking for revenge, we don’t see any of the other contenders making the title game close.

Notre Dame caucuses with the ACC for bowl bids, and with no viable ACC team looking formidable, the Irish will most likely take the next bowl in the ACC pecking order.  This week, we are going with a Big Ten team in the Orange Bowl, so for now it looks like the Citrus Bowl for the number two team in this group.

Including Notre Dame, there is a good chance that the ACC will have 12 bowl eligible teams, meaning there will be room for two additional at-large bowl bids.  The ACC has secondary agreements with the Birmingham and Gasparilla Bowls.  The Birmingham Bowl will most definitely need an at-large team, so ACC #11 will get that bid.  The Gasparilla Bowl most likely will not need an at-large team, but that ACC #12 will still receive an at-large bid.  With the SEC obviously falling well short this year, that #12 ACC team could end up in Memphis in the Liberty Bowl.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 12 (includes Notre Dame)

 

Big 12

With Oklahoma losing, for now, we are keeping the Big 12 out of the Playoffs.  There is still a 20% chance that either Baylor or Oklahoma run the table to stay in contention at the end.  One team will have to sweep the other to pull it off.

TCU’s upset of Texas (wasn’t really an upset) puts the Horned Frogs back into position to become bowl eligible, while Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas knocks the Red Raiders out of contention for now.  We’re not ready to put Les Miles and his Jayhawks into contention, but if KU knocks off Kansas State this weekend, then we might be forced to give them some consideration.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Big Ten

Ohio State has an excellent chance to make the Playoffs as the top seed.  On the other hand, they might have to get there by beating an undefeated Penn State or Minnesota team, and they have to play at Michigan.  Could history from repeat itself from 50 years ago?  In 1969, the best ever Ohio State team coming off a really embarrassing blowout of Michigan the year before, went to Ann Arbor to face a two-loss Michigan team.  Michigan’s defense did the near-impossible, stopping the greatest Buckeye offense in school history.  We can hardly wait.

Indiana’s win at Nebraska virtually guarantees that the Hoosiers will become bowl eligible.  Illinois’s win over Purdue puts Lovie Smith’s Illini in strong contention for a bowl bid, while Purdue played itself out of contention.

Michigan State is struggling, but the Spartans should win six or seven games to become bowl eligible, while Nebraska is hoping the return of Adrian Martinez and games with Purdue and Maryland will get the Cornhuskers to 6-6.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

 

Conference USA

This is a down year for CUSA, as no team is in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid.  In the East, Marshall is now in control of their destiny thanks to a last-play 53-yard field goal against Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic and WKU are the other teams still in contention, but all three of these teams will get bowl bids.

In the West, it is looking like there could be a three-way tie between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, and UAB.  North Texas is suffering a disappointing year, and the Mean Green have been removed from bowl contention by our ratings.

We expect CUSA to have on more bowl eligible team than it has bowl contracts, and that sixth team might be headed to Shreveport, Louisiana in late December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

 

Independents

(not including Notre Dame, which counts with the ACC)

This has turned into a disappointing season for Army, and we now have the Black Knights finishing under .500.  Brigham Young has an automatic bowl bid to Hawaii if the Cougars go 6-6 or better.  6-6 is the most likely record for BYU.

Liberty has not been to a bowl in its short history in FBS football, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl should the Cure Bowl need an at-large team.  This week, for the first time, we have the Cure Bowl needing an at-large team, so Hugh Freeze might be staying quite warm in Florida in December.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 2

 

Mid-American

This is a down year in the MAC, but the parity is going to lead to many more bowl eligible teams than the MAC has bowls to place them.  The MAC has five guaranteed bowl bids plus secondary agreements with two others.  One of those other secondary agreements is the Quick Lane Bowl which will not need an at-large team.  The Frisco Bowl always needs an at-large team, since there is only one tie-in, so the MAC can expect a second consecutive bowl bid there.  This year, the MAC is likely to see at least one additional team go to a bowl that has no MACtion secondary agreement.  Because our ratings this week forecast 79 bowl eligible teams, the odd team out is likely to be a 6-6 MAC team.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8 (But only 7 will receive bids)

 

Mountain West

The Mountain West will most likely lose its secondary chance at the Hawaii and Cheez-it Bowls, which means that the league will only have five guaranteed bowl bids.  This league will most likely have seven bowl eligible teams, so two members will be headed East and South in December.

Boise State still remains in contention for the Group of 5 NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl, but the Broncos still have three tough tests remaining.  They must beat Utah State and Wyoming and then the West Division representative in the MWC Championship Game.  For now, we have Boise winning the championship but not getting the Cotton Bowl bid.

Air Force has a chance to finish 10-2, and the Falcons could be moved out of the MWC’s bowl tie-ins in order to fly east to a more prestigious bowl, maybe replacing the SEC in a Southern bowl game.  Air Force can fill up most stadiums with Cadets, and they don’t have problems with airline reservations.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Pac-12

Oregon and Utah still have minor chances to sneak into the Playoffs, but until teams like Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Penn State start losing games, we will put the league champion in Pasadena.

This week, we remove California from bowl contention and put rival Stanford back in.  We also remove Arizona for now, so there will not be extra bowl eligible teams if our scenario plays itself out.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

 

Southeastern

It may be the strongest league in college football, but the SEC is going to be the league that causes multiple bowls to look elsewhere for at-large teams.  The Independence and Birmingham Bowls must already be looking at potential at-large teams.  The Belk, Liberty, and Music City Bowls might also wish to start looking around for potential at-large teams.

If both Alabama and LSU make the playoffs, and then Florida and Georgia (or Auburn) then receive Sugar and Orange Bowl bids, four teams are already removed before the meat of the bowls look for what’s left.

Because Missouri is ineligible for a bowl, and Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina look to be out of bowl contention, an Ole Miss Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State will likely leave the SEC with just 8 Bowl Eligible teams.  Only four teams will remain for the nine SEC spots needed to fulfill the SEC’s bowl contracts.

The Citrus, Outback, Gator, and Texas Bowls are the bowls that the SEC will need to fill.  That leaves the Belk, Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls without SEC teams.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

 

Sun Belt

Congratulations go out to Georgia State for joining Appy State as teams already eligible for bowls this year.  Appy State is hoping for a miracle.  If the Mountaineers win at South Carolina and finish the regular season 13-0, there is a chance they  could get the Cotton Bowl bid.  For now, we see them coming up one game short.

Louisiana is one win away from becoming bowl eligible, while Arkansas State and Georgia Southern have legitimate paths to bowl eligibility, and UL-Monroe has a path, just not as legitimate as the other two.

Expected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Miami (O)]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Eastern Michigan
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Central Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[Western Kentucky]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Illiois
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	USC	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Stanford
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia Tech	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Cincinnati	Baylor
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	UAB	[Utah St.]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Air Force]	Louisville
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Georgia	Penn St.
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Buffalo]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	[Duke]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Georgia Southern	San Jose St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Auburn	Notre Dame
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Tennessee
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Florida
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Miami (Fla.)]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Wisconsin
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Hawaii
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	LSU
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 24-28, 2019

It couldn’t last.  Our winning streak ended soon after it began, and both the PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks fell to the losing side last week.  We’re back at it again hoping that maybe if you see a game you have thought about wagering real money on the outcome, you will see that we agree with you, and you will quickly forget playing that game.

Remember, the PiRates do not wager real money on football games, and we encourage you not to use our picks as handicapping aids if you happen to play for real.  These picks are free and are priced exactly where they need to be.

PiRate Picks

This week, we add a new twist that hasn’t been shown here in several years.  We are going to make a few 6-point teaser picks (2-game parlays @ 10-11 odds)

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Connecticut	Massachusetts	4	UConn
Memphis	Tulsa	4.5	Memphis

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	4.5	Texas A&M
Iowa	Northwestern	4	Iowa

 

College 6-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Miami (Fla.)	Pittsburgh	0.5	Pittsburgh
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	5.5	Arkansas St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
SMU	Houston	4	SMU
Central Michigan	Buffalo	7.5	Buffalo
Purdue	Illinois	20	Illinois

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Liberty	Rutgers	17	Rutgers
Rice	Southern Miss.	0.5	Southern Miss
Wyoming	Nevada	4	Wyoming

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	4.5	Fresno St
Georgia Southern	N. Mexico St.	4.5	Ga. Southern
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	0.5	Iowa St.

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Ohio	Ball St.	7.5	Ball St.
Oklahoma	Kansas St.	13.5	Oklahoma
Minnesota	Maryland	6.5	Minnesota

 

College 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Texas	TCU	11.5	TCU
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	4.5	Ohio St.
LSU	Auburn	0.5	LSU

 

College 13-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Troy	Georgia St.	12	Georgia St.
Penn St.	Michigan St.	19.5	Michigan St.
Middle Tennessee	Florida Int’l.	10.5	Fla. Intl
South Carolina	Tennessee	17.5	Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Washington	6.5	Minnesota
N.Y. Giants	Detroit	3	Detroit
Tampa Bay	Tennessee	7.5	Tennessee

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
LA Chargers	Chicago	6	Chicago
N.Y. Jets	Jacksonville	4	Jacksonville
Philadelphia	Buffalo	8.5	Buffalo

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
LA Rams	Cincinnati	3	LA Rams
New Orleans	Arizona	0.5	New Orleans
Oakland	Houston	3	Houston

 

NFL 10-point Teaser

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Indianapolis	4.5	Indianapolis
New England	Cleveland	3	New England
Miami	Pittsburgh	4.5	Pittsburgh

 

Davey19 Selections

College Picks Against The Spread

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Connecticut	Massachusetts	10	UMass
Purdue	Illinois	10	Illinois
Central Florida	Temple	11	Temple
Buffalo	Central Michigan	2.5	Buffalo
Liberty	Rutgers	7.5	Rutgers
Marshall	Western Kentucky	5	Western Kentucky
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	10.5	Oklahoma St.
Ball St.	Ohio	2.5	Ball St.
North Texas	Charlotte	4.5	Charlotte

 

Note: For those of you that play for real, please be aware that in both college and pro football this weekend, Miami is playing Pittsburgh at Heinz Stadium.  Don’t confuse the games on the card.

The Pitt Panthers and Miami of Florida Hurricanes face off Saturday at Noon Eastern Daylight Time.  The Steelers host the Dolphins on Monday Night at 8:20 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

 

And, as a reminder, next Sunday’s NFL games will kick off in Standard Time.  Daylight Savings Time goes to bed Sunday morning at 2 AM, November 3.  It never ceases to amaze us as to how many 9 to 5 workers fail to notice that one of their car’s headlights, taillights, brake lights, or signal lights is not working, until after the clocks are set back in the Fall, and they drive home from work in the dark. 

Please check all your lights before you turn your clock back an hour.  Darkness at 4:30 PM always leads to increased traffic accidents in large cities, so play it safe and prepare by becoming a better defensive driver.  The life you save, may be mine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: October 21, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

 

Thursday	October 24
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	SMU	-8.1	-7.1	-7.5
Friday	October 25
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Colorado	USC	-11.1	-12.2	-12.3
Saturday	October 26
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Massachusetts	Connecticut	-7.6	-9.3	-7.6
Purdue	Illinois	11.4	10.5	11.8
Army	San Jose St.	13.6	11.4	13.3
Georgia St.	Troy	-2.2	-1.3	-1.6
Clemson	Boston College	33.5	30.9	33.7
Tulsa	Memphis	-12.8	-12.0	-12.5
Toledo	Eastern Michigan	3.5	3.7	3.8
Texas A&M	Mississippi St.	9.6	11.6	3.9
Temple	Central Florida	-7.0	-7.0	-6.7
Western Michigan	Bowling Green	25.8	24.9	25.5
Nebraska	Indiana	-2.1	0.0	-2.1
Buffalo	Central Michigan	5.9	5.6	6.0
Northwestern	Iowa	-9.7	-8.8	-10.7
East Carolina	South Florida	-2.0	-1.2	-2.0
Florida St.	Syracuse	3.0	3.9	3.4
Rutgers	Liberty	-2.4	-4.2	-3.9
Rice	Southern Miss.	-11.8	-8.8	-12.5
Utah	California	20.2	19.4	20.2
Wyoming	Nevada	12.9	13.5	13.7
Air Force	Utah St.	0.0	2.5	-0.1
New Mexico	Hawaii	-12.2	-10.6	-12.4
Marshall	Western Kentucky	2.8	1.2	2.1
Stanford	Arizona	7.6	6.7	7.1
Oregon	Washington St.	10.1	11.2	11.2
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	19.2	16.3	19.4
Kentucky	Missouri	-5.0	-4.0	-6.2
North Carolina	Duke	1.7	2.2	3.0
Michigan St.	Penn St.	-5.4	-5.3	-5.8
Kent St.	Miami (O)	2.2	3.7	2.5
South Alabama	Appalachian St.	-32.1	-28.5	-32.7
Georgia Southern	New Mexico St.	18.2	15.2	16.8
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	10.3	10.6	11.2
Middle Tennessee	Florida Int’l.	0.2	-0.8	0.1
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	-13.0	-12.1	-13.9
Ball St.	Ohio U	1.1	1.7	0.8
Alabama	Arkansas	43.1	39.2	44.5
Tennessee	South Carolina	-3.3	-2.0	-4.7
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	-14.6	-14.0	-14.8
Minnesota	Maryland	12.7	13.2	13.3
Navy	Tulane	-1.3	0.6	-1.2
TCU	Texas	-4.5	-2.0	-4.4
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	4.8	5.4	4.4
Louisville	Virginia	-8.1	-8.7	-8.5
Northern Illinois	Akron	22.3	21.0	23.4
Kansas	Texas Tech	-7.7	-6.7	-6.8
Charlotte	North Texas	-5.1	-4.1	-5.6
Ohio St.	Wisconsin	18.7	18.0	19.8
Arkansas St.	Texas St.	8.8	8.0	8.7
LSU	Auburn	9.0	8.4	9.4
UTEP	Louisiana Tech	-23.1	-18.4	-22.6
Michigan	Notre Dame	1.5	1.4	1.6
UCLA	Arizona St.	-6.2	-5.7	-7.7
UNLV	San Diego St.	-11.6	-12.1	-12.1

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Ohio St.	137.4	136.4	138.4	137.4
2	Alabama	135.3	132.0	136.0	134.4
3	Clemson	132.6	130.0	133.4	132.0
4	L S U	129.4	127.1	129.5	128.7
5	Oklahoma	125.8	125.1	125.7	125.5
6	Georgia	126.2	124.3	126.1	125.5
7	Auburn	123.4	121.7	123.2	122.8
8	Penn St.	122.7	121.8	122.8	122.5
9	Wisconsin	121.7	121.4	121.7	121.6
10	Florida	122.7	119.8	122.3	121.6
11	Utah	121.6	120.4	122.2	121.4
12	Notre Dame	120.5	118.8	120.4	119.9
13	Oregon	119.1	119.2	120.5	119.6
14	Michigan	118.9	117.2	119.0	118.4
15	Iowa	117.7	115.8	117.5	117.0
16	Iowa St.	115.9	116.6	116.2	116.2
17	Texas A&M	116.7	115.0	115.3	115.7
18	Washington	114.0	113.7	115.0	114.2
19	Minnesota	114.2	113.9	113.7	113.9
20	Baylor	114.0	114.2	113.6	113.9
21	Michigan St.	114.3	113.5	114.0	113.9
22	Missouri	114.2	111.8	114.0	113.3
23	South Carolina	113.6	111.9	113.4	113.0
24	Texas	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8
25	Washington St.	112.0	111.1	112.3	111.8
26	U S C	109.9	110.7	110.6	110.4
27	Central Florida	110.4	109.6	111.0	110.3
28	Mississippi St.	110.1	106.4	114.5	110.3
29	Virginia	108.8	109.0	108.9	108.9
30	Oklahoma St.	108.6	109.0	108.0	108.5
31	Arizona St.	108.4	107.7	109.2	108.5
32	Appalachian St.	108.8	107.8	108.6	108.4
33	Cincinnati	108.3	107.1	108.9	108.1
34	Kansas St.	108.3	108.1	107.9	108.1
35	Indiana	108.5	107.2	107.9	107.9
36	SMU	107.2	107.0	108.5	107.6
37	Memphis	106.8	106.8	107.5	107.0
38	Pittsburgh	106.6	106.4	106.9	106.6
39	Tennessee	107.3	106.9	105.7	106.6
40	Purdue	106.8	106.6	106.3	106.6
41	T C U	105.2	108.0	105.5	106.2
42	Boise St.	106.1	105.8	106.4	106.1
43	North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1
44	Texas Tech	105.8	106.0	105.0	105.6
45	Duke	105.6	104.9	105.3	105.3
46	Kentucky	106.2	104.8	104.8	105.3
47	Utah St.	104.9	104.0	105.9	104.9
48	Miami (Fla.)	104.8	104.1	105.5	104.8
49	Ole Miss	105.2	104.2	104.9	104.8
50	Northwestern	105.4	104.5	104.3	104.7
51	Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6
52	California	104.3	104.0	105.0	104.4
53	Syracuse	104.5	103.8	104.1	104.1
54	Maryland	104.5	103.7	103.3	103.8
55	Nebraska	103.4	104.2	102.8	103.5
56	Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4
57	Stanford	103.6	102.7	103.1	103.1
58	Air Force	101.9	103.4	102.8	102.7
59	Boston College	102.2	102.1	102.7	102.3
60	West Virginia	102.1	101.5	101.2	101.6
61	Virginia Tech	101.0	101.1	101.4	101.2
62	Temple	100.8	100.1	101.8	100.9
63	Louisiana	100.9	101.0	100.8	100.9
64	Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.4	100.2
65	Fresno St.	99.0	99.8	99.5	99.4
66	BYU	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.3
67	North Carolina St.	99.3	99.0	99.4	99.2
68	Arizona	99.0	99.0	98.9	99.0
69	U C L A	99.2	99.0	98.5	98.9
70	San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9
71	Illinois	98.3	99.1	97.5	98.3
72	Wyoming	97.3	99.4	97.6	98.1
73	Houston	96.6	97.5	98.5	97.5
74	Oregon St.	97.3	98.3	96.8	97.5
75	Louisville	97.7	97.3	97.4	97.4
76	Western Michigan	97.5	96.4	97.2	97.0
77	Navy	95.5	98.1	96.2	96.6
78	Vanderbilt	97.0	95.7	95.7	96.1
79	Hawaii	95.7	97.0	94.9	95.9
80	Army	96.0	95.9	95.2	95.7
81	Colorado	95.9	95.5	95.4	95.6
82	Kansas	95.2	96.2	95.2	95.5
83	Arkansas	95.2	95.7	94.5	95.2
84	Georgia Tech	94.6	92.9	95.0	94.2
85	Troy	94.3	94.8	93.4	94.2
86	Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.0	94.3	94.1
87	Southern Miss.	94.2	92.6	94.3	93.7
88	Georgia Southern	93.3	92.7	92.2	92.8
89	Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7
90	Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.4	92.8	92.0
91	Northern Illinois	92.2	91.1	92.3	91.9
92	Tulsa	91.0	91.8	92.0	91.6
93	Western Kentucky	90.6	91.8	92.4	91.6
94	Florida Int’l.	91.4	91.4	91.6	91.5
95	Ball St.	91.5	91.1	91.6	91.4
96	North Texas	91.2	90.5	91.7	91.1
97	U A B	89.9	91.8	90.8	90.9
98	Marshall	90.4	90.0	91.5	90.6
99	Georgia St.	89.6	91.0	89.3	90.0
100	Buffalo	89.3	89.8	90.4	89.8
101	Arkansas St.	89.7	89.8	89.2	89.6
102	Liberty	89.0	90.3	89.3	89.5
103	Middle Tennessee	89.1	88.1	89.2	88.8
104	South Florida	88.3	89.3	88.5	88.7
105	Toledo	88.3	88.6	89.0	88.6
106	Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4
107	Miami (Ohio)	88.5	87.0	88.7	88.1
108	Nevada	87.5	88.9	86.9	87.8
109	Eastern Michigan	87.2	87.4	87.7	87.5
110	Coastal Carolina	86.8	87.9	86.2	87.0
111	Central Michigan	85.9	86.7	86.9	86.5
112	Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.5	85.6	86.0
113	San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0
114	U N L V	84.2	85.6	83.7	84.5
115	East Carolina	83.8	85.6	84.0	84.5
116	Colorado St.	82.8	86.6	83.1	84.2
117	Charlotte	83.6	83.9	83.6	83.7
118	Texas St.	83.4	84.2	83.0	83.5
119	Rutgers	84.1	83.6	82.9	83.5
120	New Mexico	80.0	82.8	79.0	80.6
121	Rice	79.9	81.3	79.2	80.2
122	New Mexico St.	78.2	80.6	78.5	79.1
123	Old Dominion	76.4	76.8	76.4	76.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.8	74.3	75.2
125	South Alabama	74.2	76.8	73.3	74.8
126	Bowling Green	74.1	74.0	74.2	74.1
127	Connecticut	71.9	75.4	70.8	72.7
128	Akron	72.5	72.6	71.4	72.1
129	U T E P	68.4	73.1	69.2	70.2
130	Massachusetts	62.3	64.1	61.2	62.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	110.4	109.6	111.0	110.3	2-1	5-2
Cincinnati	108.3	107.1	108.9	108.1	3-0	6-1
Temple	100.8	100.1	101.8	100.9	2-1	5-2
South Florida	88.3	89.3	88.5	88.7	1-2	3-4
East Carolina	83.8	85.6	84.0	84.5	0-3	3-4
Connecticut	71.9	75.4	70.8	72.7	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
SMU	107.2	107.0	108.5	107.6	3-0	7-0
Memphis	106.8	106.8	107.5	107.0	2-1	6-1
Tulane	99.8	100.5	100.4	100.2	2-1	5-2
Houston	96.6	97.5	98.5	97.5	1-2	3-4
Navy	95.5	98.1	96.2	96.6	3-1	5-1
Tulsa	91.0	91.8	92.0	91.6	0-3	2-5
AAC Averages	96.7	97.4	97.3	97.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	132.6	130.0	133.4	132.0	5-0	7-0
Florida St.	104.5	104.6	104.5	104.6	2-3	3-4
Syracuse	104.5	103.8	104.1	104.1	0-3	3-4
Wake Forest	103.5	102.9	103.8	103.4	2-1	6-1
Boston College	102.2	102.1	102.7	102.3	2-2	4-3
North Carolina St.	99.3	99.0	99.4	99.2	1-2	4-3
Louisville	97.7	97.3	97.4	97.4	2-2	4-3
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Virginia	108.8	109.0	108.9	108.9	3-1	5-2
Pittsburgh	106.6	106.4	106.9	106.6	2-1	5-2
North Carolina	105.7	105.7	106.9	106.1	2-2	3-4
Duke	105.6	104.9	105.3	105.3	2-2	4-3
Miami (Fla.)	104.8	104.1	105.5	104.8	1-3	3-4
Virginia Tech	101.0	101.1	101.4	101.2	3-2	5-2
Georgia Tech	94.6	92.9	95.0	94.2	1-3	2-5
ACC Averages	105.1	104.6	105.4	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	125.8	125.1	125.7	125.5	4-0	7-0
Iowa St.	115.9	116.6	116.2	116.2	3-1	5-2
Baylor	114.0	114.2	113.6	113.9	4-0	7-0
Texas	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8	3-1	5-2
Oklahoma St.	108.6	109.0	108.0	108.5	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	108.3	108.1	107.9	108.1	1-2	4-2
T C U	105.2	108.0	105.5	106.2	1-2	3-3
Texas Tech	105.8	106.0	105.0	105.6	1-3	3-4
West Virginia	102.1	101.5	101.2	101.6	1-3	3-4
Kansas	95.2	96.2	95.2	95.5	0-4	2-5
Big 12 Averages	109.3	109.7	109.0	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	137.4	136.4	138.4	137.4	4-0	7-0
Penn St.	122.7	121.8	122.8	122.5	4-0	7-0
Michigan	118.9	117.2	119.0	118.4	3-2	5-2
Michigan St.	114.3	113.5	114.0	113.9	2-2	4-3
Indiana	108.5	107.2	107.9	107.9	2-2	5-2
Maryland	104.5	103.7	103.3	103.8	1-3	3-4
Rutgers	84.1	83.6	82.9	83.5	0-5	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	121.7	121.4	121.7	121.6	3-1	6-1
Iowa	117.7	115.8	117.5	117.0	2-2	5-2
Minnesota	114.2	113.9	113.7	113.9	4-0	7-0
Purdue	106.8	106.6	106.3	106.6	1-3	2-5
Northwestern	105.4	104.5	104.3	104.7	0-4	1-5
Nebraska	103.4	104.2	102.8	103.5	2-2	4-3
Illinois	98.3	99.1	97.5	98.3	1-3	3-4
Big Ten Averages	111.3	110.6	110.9	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.4	92.8	92.0	2-1	4-3
Western Kentucky	90.6	91.8	92.4	91.6	4-0	5-2
Florida Int’l.	91.4	91.4	91.6	91.5	2-2	4-3
Marshall	90.4	90.0	91.5	90.6	2-1	4-3
Middle Tennessee	89.1	88.1	89.2	88.8	1-2	2-5
Charlotte	83.6	83.9	83.6	83.7	0-3	2-5
Old Dominion	76.4	76.8	76.4	76.5	0-3	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Louisiana Tech	94.0	94.0	94.3	94.1	3-0	6-1
Southern Miss.	94.2	92.6	94.3	93.7	2-1	4-3
North Texas	91.2	90.5	91.7	91.1	2-1	3-4
U A B	89.9	91.8	90.8	90.9	3-1	6-1
Rice	79.9	81.3	79.2	80.2	0-3	0-7
Texas-San Antonio	74.5	76.8	74.3	75.2	2-2	3-4
U T E P	68.4	73.1	69.2	70.2	0-3	1-5
CUSA Averages	86.1	86.7	86.5	86.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.5	118.8	120.4	119.9	x	5-1
BYU	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.3	x	3-4
Army	96.0	95.9	95.2	95.7	x	3-4
Liberty	89.0	90.3	89.3	89.5	x	5-2
New Mexico St.	78.2	80.6	78.5	79.1	x	0-7
Massachusetts	62.3	64.1	61.2	62.5	x	1-6
Indep. Averages	90.9	91.5	90.6	91.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	92.9	91.9	93.3	92.7	2-1	3-4
Buffalo	89.3	89.8	90.4	89.8	1-2	3-4
Kent St.	88.2	88.2	88.7	88.4	2-1	3-4
Miami (Ohio)	88.5	87.0	88.7	88.1	2-1	3-4
Bowling Green	74.1	74.0	74.2	74.1	1-2	2-5
Akron	72.5	72.6	71.4	72.1	0-3	0-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	97.5	96.4	97.2	97.0	2-2	4-4
Northern Illinois	92.2	91.1	92.3	91.9	1-2	2-5
Ball St.	91.5	91.1	91.6	91.4	3-0	4-3
Toledo	88.3	88.6	89.0	88.6	1-2	4-3
Eastern Michigan	87.2	87.4	87.7	87.5	1-2	4-3
Central Michigan	85.9	86.7	86.9	86.5	3-1	5-3
MAC Averages	87.3	87.1	87.6	87.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.1	105.8	106.4	106.1	3-0	6-1
Utah St.	104.9	104.0	105.9	104.9	3-0	4-2
Air Force	101.9	103.4	102.8	102.7	3-1	5-2
Wyoming	97.3	99.4	97.6	98.1	2-1	5-2
Colorado St.	82.8	86.6	83.1	84.2	1-2	2-5
New Mexico	80.0	82.8	79.0	80.6	0-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.0	99.8	99.5	99.4	1-1	3-3
San Diego St.	98.3	100.1	98.3	98.9	3-1	6-1
Hawaii	95.7	97.0	94.9	95.9	1-2	4-3
Nevada	87.5	88.9	86.9	87.8	1-2	4-3
San Jose St.	85.4	87.5	85.0	86.0	1-3	3-4
U N L V	84.2	85.6	83.7	84.5	1-3	2-5
MWC Averages	93.6	95.1	93.6	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	119.1	119.2	120.5	119.6	4-0	6-1
Washington	114.0	113.7	115.0	114.2	2-3	5-3
Washington St.	112.0	111.1	112.3	111.8	1-3	4-3
California	104.3	104.0	105.0	104.4	1-3	4-3
Stanford	103.6	102.7	103.1	103.1	2-3	3-4
Oregon St.	97.3	98.3	96.8	97.5	2-2	3-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	121.6	120.4	122.2	121.4	3-1	6-1
U S C	109.9	110.7	110.6	110.4	3-1	4-3
Arizona St.	108.4	107.7	109.2	108.5	2-2	5-2
Arizona	99.0	99.0	98.9	99.0	2-2	4-3
U C L A	99.2	99.0	98.5	98.9	2-2	2-5
Colorado	95.9	95.5	95.4	95.6	1-3	3-4
Pac-12 Averages	107.0	106.8	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	126.2	124.3	126.1	125.5	3-1	6-1
Florida	122.7	119.8	122.3	121.6	5-1	7-1
Missouri	114.2	111.8	114.0	113.3	2-1	5-2
South Carolina	113.6	111.9	113.4	113.0	2-3	3-4
Tennessee	107.3	106.9	105.7	106.6	1-3	2-5
Kentucky	106.2	104.8	104.8	105.3	1-4	3-4
Vanderbilt	97.0	95.7	95.7	96.1	1-3	2-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	132.0	136.0	134.4	4-0	7-0
L S U	129.4	127.1	129.5	128.7	3-0	7-0
Auburn	123.4	121.7	123.2	122.8	3-1	6-1
Texas A&M	116.7	115.0	115.3	115.7	2-2	4-3
Mississippi St.	110.1	106.4	114.5	110.3	1-3	3-4
Ole Miss	105.2	104.2	104.9	104.8	2-3	3-5
Arkansas	95.2	95.7	94.5	95.2	0-4	2-5
SEC Averages	114.5	112.7	114.3	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	108.8	107.8	108.6	108.4	3-0	6-0
Troy	94.3	94.8	93.4	94.2	1-1	3-3
Georgia Southern	93.3	92.7	92.2	92.8	2-1	3-3
Georgia St.	89.6	91.0	89.3	90.0	2-1	5-2
Coastal Carolina	86.8	87.9	86.2	87.0	0-3	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	100.9	101.0	100.8	100.9	2-1	5-2
Arkansas St.	89.7	89.8	89.2	89.6	1-2	3-4
Louisiana-Monroe	85.8	86.5	85.6	86.0	2-1	3-4
Texas St.	83.4	84.2	83.0	83.5	1-1	2-4
South Alabama	74.2	76.8	73.3	74.8	0-3	1-6
SBC Averages	90.7	91.3	90.2	90.7

 

 

Conference Ratings

 

#	League	Average
1	Southeastern	113.8
2	Big Ten	110.9
3	Big 12	109.3
4	Pac-12	107.0
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American	97.1
7	Mountain West	94.1
8	Independents	91.0
9	Sun Belt	90.7
10	Mid-American	87.3
11	Conference USA	86.4

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	SMU
2	Appalachian St.
3	Cincinnati
4	Navy
5	Boise St.

 

 

This Week’s Bowl and Playoff Projections

 

There was considerable shuffling of the bowl projections this week, with these teams being affected the most (by alphabetical conference).

AAC: With Boise St. losing, the likelihood of the AAC Champion making it to the Cotton Bowl went way up.  SMU is the leader at the moment, but the Mustangs will have to win at Memphis more than likely if they are to stay home for a NY6 Bowl.  Memphis has the most favorable schedule, while Cincinnati and Navy are still in the race.

ACC: Clemson cannot afford to lose a game, and most every so-called college football expert believes this is so.  There is no strong number two in this league, but Notre Dame caucuses here for bowl invitation, so the Irish look like a sure thing to garner one of the NY6 Bowl bids.  Boston College, Louisville,  and Syracuse appear to be on the outside looking in from the Atlantic Division, while Miami now drops into our predicted 5-7 teams and falls out of the bowl picture for now.  The Coastal is still a wide open race, but we think Pittsburgh has the best chance to become fodder for Clemson in the Title Game.

Big 12: Baylor keeps surprising a lot of folks, as even the folks in Nevada were a bit surprised at how they handles Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Can the Bears beat Oklahoma, or to put it more accurately beat them once in two tries?  If Oklahoma runs the table, the Sooners are in the Playoffs.  If Baylor runs the table, they will most likely make the playoffs.  If they split two games, then the LSU-Alabama loser at 11-1 will be in the Playoffs.  Texas and Iowa State appear to be jostling for third place as of now.  Meanwhile, a group that included Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech all have shots a bowl eligibility, and we believe three of the four will make it.

Big Ten: Wisconsin’s loss to Illinois, makes the Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus a Playoff Qualifier.  The winner of that game has a great shot at being 13-0 and Playoff bound.  Michigan and Michigan State are now fighting it out for third in the East, while Indiana virtually locked up a fifth bowl eligible spot in the division.  Minnesota still gets no respect, and the Gophers will host Penn State in two weeks with a chance to get that respect.  If they upset the Nittany Lions, Roses could be in Minnesota’s future for the first time since January 1, 1962.  With the Big Ten having the most specific bowl rules, it appears that in order to keep teams out of making repeat bowl appearances, some teams with two fewer wins may jump over others for more prestigious bowls.

Conference USA: This league has no chance to earn the NY6 Bowl bid as too many teams would have to lose before a Louisiana Tech or UAB would even enter the contention picture.  Marshall will host Western Kentucky this weekend, and the winner will just about wrap up the East Division flag.  The West is still a four-team mess, but Louisiana Tech has the upper hand.  UAB hosts the Bulldogs in November, and the winner of that game will most likely take the West Division crown.

Independents: Since Notre Dame figures in the ACC bowl, we don’t include them here.  The big change here was removing Army from bowl contention and placing BYU back into bowl contention.  If BYU goes 6-6 or better, they are guaranteed the Hawaii Bowl bid.  Keep an eye on Liberty.  If Liberty can win at Rutgers this Saturday, the Flames are looking at an eight-win season.  Liberty has a secondary bowl agreement with the Cure, but we see that bowl being filled by the regular tie-ins.  Still, this school could make its first bowl appearance, because a lot of Southern bowls are going to need at-large teams.

MAC: This conference uses the work “MACtion” to describe its excitement, but Wacky MAC might be a more accurate theme in the Midwest.  Almost all the craziness is in the West Division, where Ball State has come from out of nowhere to take a commanding lead in the division.  The Cardinals were picked to finish last or second to last by most preseason predictions.  The other team picked to finish last or second to last may be chief competition.  Central Michigan plays Ball State in Muncie in November, and the winner is probably the Division champion.  In the East, Ohio won a big game over Kent State this past Saturday, and the Bobcats need only beat Buffalo to guarantee another East Division crown.  Mainstays at the top, Western Michigan and Toledo, are hurting right now, and Toledo must get quarterback Mitchell Guadagni back from injury, as they have no offense without him.

Mountain West: Boise State is now on the outside looking in for the Cotton Bowl.  The Broncos have two or three more games where the opponent could be talented enough to pin another loss on them.  Utah State hosts BSU in November, and if quarterback Jordan Love is 100% healthy, the Aggies might be the better team.  With Hawaii losing at home to Air Force, the San Diego State-Fresno State winner is going to take the West Division title.  This league will have one or two extra teams to fill at-large bowls, and we believe one of the two will get in.  Wyoming did not get an invitation last year, so the Cowboys could be heading Southeast of Laramie.

Pac-12: Oregon is one play away from being squarely in the Playoff picture, but then the Donner Party was just one mountain away from getting to the Pacific Coast safely.  The Ducks may have seen their hopes dashed by an Auburn snowstorm.  Utah’s loss to USC prevents the Utes from having a chance to make it to the Playoffs.  The only unsure thing in this conference is if California can get to 6-6 without Chase Garbers at QB.

SEC: Georgia looks quite vulnerable all of a sudden.  If the Bulldogs couldn’t pass or score versus South Carolina and Kentucky, how will they do so against Florida and Auburn.  Short of a major quick fix, it would not be shocking if Georgia lost twice more, giving Florida the East title.  With Missouri ineligible, that leaves South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt fighting for two bowl bids.  USC and Vandy have too much to conquer to get to six wins, while Kentucky may have to beat rival Louisville to make it to bowl eligibility.  Tennessee has four winnable games left on their schedule, so for now, we are picking the Vols to sneak in at 6-6.  In the West, we believe Mississippi State is in big trouble and likely headed to 5-7 with Ole Miss.  Arkansas is the #14 team in the league and may finish 0-8.  The SEC is going to come up four to six bowl spots short.

Sunbelt: Appalachian State probably has the best overall shot of going 13-0 from a Group of 5 Conference, but can the Mountaineers jump over a 12-1 AAC champion?  Aside from that, the other news is that this league will have extra bowl eligible teams and should see at least one at-large bid come to the league.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Central Michigan	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Toledo]
Cure	AAC	SBC	East Carolina	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Ball St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Georgia St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Southern Miss.	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Navy
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Indiana
Military	ACC	AAC	Duke	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Pittsburgh	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Memphis	Penn St.
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	[Hawaii]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Michigan
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Wyoming]	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	[Liberty]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Georgia	Wisconsin
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Oregon
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Troy]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Tennessee	Nebraska
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	[Western Ky.]	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Championship	Fiesta	Peach	Ohio St.	Alabama

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 17-21, 2019

Hooray, Hooray!  Maybe our little ditty we recited at the beginning of last week’s picks really worked!  That ditty went this way, “Yuck, Yuck, Yuck, I want more luck!”  It has to do with a childhood saying, and it worked then and apparently worked last week.

Both our PiRate Picks and Experimental Davey19 picks won.  The PiRate Picks enjoyed a windfall weekend with big wins.  Another 6 or 7 weeks in a row just like this, and we might even get back to level in our imaginary bank accounts.

While we have been trying to issue our money line parlay picks on Friday, we have a Thursday night game that is included in our selections, we have to issue those picks today as well.

Remember, the PiRates never wager real money on the outcomes of these games, and we also remind you that you frequently get what you pay for, and this is totally free.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers, 3 Game Parlays

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Louisiana	Arkansas St.	17	Arkansas St.
Ohio	Kent St.	17.5	Kent St.
Utah St.	Nevada	31	Nevada

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
California	Oregon St.	21	Oregon St.
Washington	Oregon	7	Oregon
South Carolina	Florida	15.5	Florida

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Louisiana Tech	Southern Miss.	9	Southern Miss.
Auburn	Arkansas	29	Arkansas
Virginia Tech	North Carolina	13.5	North Carolina

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Texas Tech	17	Texas Tech
Rice	UTSA	14.5	UTSA
SMU	Temple	17.5	Temple

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Denver	Kansas City	7	Kansas City
N.Y. Giants	Arizona	13	Arizona
Houston	Indianapolis	10	Indianapolis

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	11	Detroit
Green Bay	Oakland	15.5	Oakland
LA Rams	Atlanta	13	Atlanta

 

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Seattle	Baltimore	13	Baltimore
Philadelphia	Dallas	7	Dallas
New England	N.Y. Jets	20.5	N.Y. Jets

 

 

Money Line Parlays

 

All 3-game parlays 

 

WIN	LOSE	Spread
Oregon	Washington
Penn St.	Michigan	+188
Western Ky.	Charlotte

 

 

WIN	LOSE	Spread
North Carolina	Virginia Tech
Western Mich.	Eastern Mich.	+193
Boise St.	BYU

 

 

WIN	LOSE	Spread
Stanford	UCLA
Florida	South Carolina	+224
Georgia Southern	Coastal Carolina

 

Davey19 Experimental Picks

 

Margins Plays

Pick	Opponent	Spread
Kent St.	Ohio	+7.5
Boise St.	BYU	-6.5
Oregon	Washington	-2.5
Florida	South Carolina	-4.5
North Carolina	Va Tech	-3
Hawaii	AFA	+3
Houston	Indianapolis	+1
Oakland	Green Bay	+5.5
Washington	San Francisco	+10.5
LA Chargers	Tennessee	+2.5

 

Totals Plays

 

Team	Team	Total	Pick
UCLA	Stanford	52.5	Under
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	46	Under
Florida St.	Wake Forest	69	Under
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	57	Under
Tennessee	LA Chargers	40	Under

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Picks For October 3-7, 2019

Yet another week went by with mixed results here on the PiRate ship.  Our original picks began the weekend on a high note, as we hit on outright Money Line upsets by Duke and by Baylor.  Indiana even looked promising for awhile, before Michigan State proved too much for the Hoosiers.  Then, what we gained on Saturday, we gave back on Sunday.

The Davey19 experimental system had another successful week, bringing the total for the year back into the black.  When we use this formula, many times we look at the plays and feel apprehensive about publishing them, but they have proven to be winners so far this year.

Today, our concentration is more on the number and less on the teams involved.  Certainly, the teams involve matter, as getting 7 1/2 points for a winless team wouldn’t be worth a hoot against a top 5 team.  But, when it comes to games that are not considered blowout games, we are going to go heavy on the ones that cross multiple frequent numbers most prevalent in football outcomes.

By the way, do you know which numbers we speak of?  There are separate sets of numbers for college and for NFL games.  Let’s look at college first.

About 35% of all FBS football games end with the winner beating the loser by 3, 4, 7, 10, 14, 17, or 21 points.  Those 7 margins make up better than 1/3 of all game outcomes.  When we refer to crossing numbers, this means we can play a teaser of 6, 6 1/2, 7, 10, or 13 points and cross multiple frequent margins.

For example, let’s say that Team A is listed as a 2 1/2 point underdog to Team B.  If we were to play Team A in a 10-point teaser as part of a 3-game parlay, we’d be allowed to move that spread from 2 1/2 to 12 1/2.  Doing so crosses 3, 4, 7, and 10, four of the most frequent margins in football games.  Crossing four numbers is quite nice.  

If Team B is a favorite over Team A by 2 1/2 and you play Team A in a 6-point, 2-game teaser, you can make Team A go from a 2 1/2 point to an 8 1/2 point underdog, crossing 3, 4, and 7.  In this instance crossing three frequent margins is wonderful when only having to win two games on a parlay.

When it comes to NFL games, the frequency of margins has changed quite a bit since 2015, when the extra point attempt was moved back to the 18 yard line and more teams began going for two-point conversions.

Today’s NFL sees a lot of games decided by 5 or 6 points.  Prior to 2015, more games ended by 10 and 4 points than today.  The advantage is now more in the smart bettor’s favor than it used to be.  42% of all NFL games end with a margin of 3, 4, 5. 6, or 7 points.  So, being able to cross these five margins in a teaser is an incredible opportunity if you can find a tossup game and tease it past that magical number 7.  Or, if you think you have a team that is a sure outright winner and is favored by more than 7 points, if you can tease that number to 2 1/2 or less, you are gaining a large advantage.  Professional gambling author John Ferguson, known by the nom deplum of Stanford Wong made the Teaser play that moves through 3 and 7 point margins quite famous, and today, this is called a Wong Teaser.  Wong’s favorite teaser play was a 6-point tease of favorites of 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points down to 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points, and a 6-point tease of underdogs of 1 1/2, 2, or 2 1/2 points to 7 1/2, 8, or 8 1/2 points.

When Ferguson made big money betting these types of teasers, the books offered much fairer odds on them, until more people picked up on this and began to win too much.  Now, you can get -110 odds on 2-game, 6-point teasers.  You have to put up $11 for every $10 the books put up.  We are not in the business of advertising for any company, so we won’t tell you the name, but if you do your research, you can still find a place where a 2-game, 6-point teaser has +100 odds, which means they put up dollar for dollar what you put up.

We have heard from a few of you that anxiously await these picks to come out every Thursday morning in the Central US.  Hopefully, you heed our advice and never wager real money on our published suggestions (And if you do, maybe it is to convince you not to play the games we picked!).

Even though our Davey19 experimental program is showing a profit for the year, the number of weeks it has been tried is still too small to mean much.  Our regular system had a multi-year run of success, but this year, it stinks.  So, just because Davey19 has a multi-week run of success, it could just as easily stink this week.  

Let’s get on with it.  Here are our selections for the week.  Once again–we never wager real money on these picks.  We are math geeks, and numbers are our friends.  We will make a statement that some people have taught their children how to love math by using applications like this and others using money to teach them how important math is.

 

PiRate Ratings Picks

 

10-point Teasers

 

#1

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Duke	Pittsburgh	15	Pittsburgh
Toledo	Western Michigan	12	Western Michigan
Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	17 1/2	Vanderbilt

Our feeling on this one is that Pittsburgh is vastly underrated with close losses to Penn State and Virginia.  Their listless win over Delaware can be excused as a sandwich game between the big upset of Central Florida and the conference game with Duke.

We believe that Western Michigan has about a 55-60% chance of winning this game outright, so making Toledo a double-digit favorite entices us to take the Broncos in this one.

An admission: we typically never play either way on a game involving Vanderbilt.  Our captain has inside connections with the program, and he feels that it wouldn’t be right to issue picks either way on the Commodores.  However, this week, this game becomes a prime pick, and the Captain has no inside information here.  This is purely a comparison of personnel, as well as production so far.  The Captain says that Vanderbilt’s opening troika of games with Northern Illinois in Game 4 basically made it a certainty that they would open 1-3 and become devalued.  Ole Miss’s defense is going to suffer a letdown against the Vanderbilt offense.  The Rebels have reached that point where the players pretty much know that the season is going to head south in October and November.  Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has a gimme game next week with UNLV and will not be looking forward past the next play in this game.  Ole Miss must play at Missouri, against Texas A&M, and at Auburn the next three weeks.  With LSU and Mississippi State coming at the end of the year, the chances of making it to bowl eligibility are about 1-2%.  Vanderbilt must win this game so that the UNLV game next week really matters.  A win Saturday virtually guarantees getting back to .500 the next week and with three definitely winnable games left on the schedule.  The SEC needs one of the bottom five teams to step up and gain bowl eligibility, and unless Missouri wins their challenge to ineligibility before December, the Commodores have the most favorable path to 6-6.

 

#2

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Florida	Auburn	7 1/2	Auburn
Miami (Fla.)	Virginia Tech	4	Miami
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	Pk	Oklahoma St.

 

We have been looking at the Florida-Auburn game since last Saturday night.  Our statistics and schedule strength show Auburn to be a legitimate touchdown or more favorite in this game, so getting more than that magical 7 points is quite appealing.

Teasing Miami from two touchdowns to 4 points brings us through the numbers 14, 10, and 7, and until Virginia Tech looks like a team with players that care, we will always look at teasing in their opponents’ favor.

Oklahoma State should beat Texas Tech 8 out of 10 times, so we are hoping that getting the Cowboys as a Pick’em will work, and this won’t be one of those two other times.

 

#3

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Penn St.	Purdue	18	Penn St.
Iowa	Michigan	6 1/2	Michigan
Washington	Stanford	6 1/2	Washington

 

We are not the type of player that plays a 4-touchdown favorite over a conference opponent, but with Purdue’s injury issues, we almost went with Penn State in a straight play at -28 over the Boilermakers.  However, we went the safer route and teased this under 21 points.  James Franklin may call off the dogs and allow PU a backdoor cover, but 18 points feels safe.

The Iowa-Michigan game was one of those really tough calls.  We hoped Iowa would pick up a little more Sharp support being undefeated, while Michigan has not won any big games under Jim Harbaugh.  Alas,  not enough Sharp money came in on Iowa, and the margin didn’t move to the 2 1/2 points we wanted.  We still like this number giving Michigan 6 1/2 points to play with, which does move the margin through two crucial numbers.  The fact that our ratings show that Michigan has about a 60% chance of winning the game, we’ll take the 6 1/2 points like it is bonus points for the true spread.

We get to move through 14, 10, and 7 in the Washington-Stanford game, and in our analysis, we believe the Huskies can blow the Cardinal off the field.  As a matter of fact, the Davey19 formula could be used to take UW outright at -16 1/2, but it was so close that we did not include it in this week’s Davey19 picks.

 

#4

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Tulane	Army	13	Army
Kansas St.	Baylor	12	Baylor
Nebraska	Northwestern	17 1/2	Northwestern

 

Tulane has become the sexy new Group of 5 favorite among the media, especially the ladies and gentlemen at ESPN and Fox Sports.  Army has yet to fire on all cylinders this year, but we don’t see the Green Wave going to West Point and winning by two touchdowns.

The Kansas State-Baylor game is strictly a numbers’ play.  Moving 2 to 12 goes through 3, 4, 7, and 10.  We don’t particularly love Baylor’s chances of winning after the emotional home upset of Iowa State, but 12 points from 2 are too much to turn down.

The same thing applies to Nebraska and Northwestern.  Neither team looks strong enough to blow out the other.  17 1/2 moves the spread through 10, 14, and 17, and in addition, we think the Cornhuskers should be favored by about 4 points.  So, this becomes more like a 13-point tease at a 10-point price.

 

#5

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Ohio	Buffalo	13	Buffalo
Iowa St.	TCU	13	TCU
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	13 1/2	Old Dominion

 

These three plays are 100% about the numbers and not the teams after you factor in that these games are fairly evenly matched.  Ohio has been a disappointment so far, but their schedule has been a bit more than the Bobcats could handle to this point.  Additionally, this is a major revenge game for Buffalo, and it is a must-win game if the Bulls are to remain alive in the MAC-East.  Moving the line through 4, 7, and 10 is just gravy.

Iowa State and TCU might split 10 games, so getting the Horned Frogs and 13 is another great numbers’ play.

Western Kentucky has moved up from near the bottom to near the top in the CUSA East Division race, and the big upset over UAB last week means the Hilltoppers are now a contender in the division race.  However, teams that pull off big home upsets in conference games that go on the road the next week as a road favorite in a conference game have poor records covering the spread.  WKU may win this game, but not by two touchdowns.  

 

#6

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
UTSA	UTEP	11 1/2	UTEP
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	1/2	North Carolina
Rice	UAB	1	UAB

 

UTSA and UTEP could combine their rosters and still struggle to finish 3-9, so when one of these weak teams can be forced into a double-digit situation that crosses all the lower key numbers (3, 4, 7, and 10), we jump on this one.

Teasing the Tar Heels is the only way to go in this game.  North Carolina will bounce some after falling short against Clemson, but Georgia Tech is likely to go 0-8 in ACC play this year trying to move from the triple option philosophy to the standard style of play.  That’s usually a three-year transition process.  We’ll put enough faith in Mack Brown to get his Carolina team ready enough to win this game, even if just by a couple points.

The Rice-UAB spread should probably be larger than it is, and we were enticed to look twice at playing UAB straight up.  Teasing the Blazers into an underdog is too good to pass up in this one.

 

13-point Teaser

#7

Team	Team	Total	Pick
Arizona	Cincinnati	34	Over
Minnesota	N.Y. Giants	30 1/2	Over
Tennessee	Buffalo	25 1/2	Over
San Francisco	Cleveland	33 1/2	Over

 

We had to choose one 13-point teaser and go with NFL Totals.  It can be hard to find action in a 13-point teaser of totals, but it is possible, so we are going with one.

The reasoning behind this play is that NFL games have smaller standard deviations of point totals in games.  The books have to be careful with totals that are too low in an environment where offenses have the advantage over defenses.  Thus, moving them by 13 points back in the direction where they probably need to be makes these games enticing.  Other than that, we don’t have a lot else to go on in these plays.  We chose these four games because our own internal ratings show that all four games should be played in the 38-45 point total range.

Davey19

Davey19 is a mechanical system using multiple rules that would take much too long to explain.  And, if it proves to be successful, we aren’t about to explain it to the rest of the world.

 

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Kansas St.	Baylor	1	Kansas St.
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	5 1/2	Eastern Michigan
SMU	Tulsa	13 1/2	Tulsa
Auburn	Florida	2 1/2	Auburn
LSU	Utah St.	28	Utah St.
Carolina	Jacksonville	3 1/2	Jacksonville
Kansas City	Indianapolis	11 1/2	Indianapolis
New England	Washington	15 1/2	Washington
Philadelphia	N. Y. Jets	14 1/2	N.Y. Jets

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 5

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday	September 27
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	18.6	18.2	19.1

 

Friday	September 28
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Memphis	-7.4	-9.6	-9.0
Colorado	UCLA	8.0	9.7	12.2

 

Saturday	September 29
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Army	2.8	4.8	4.3
Connecticut	Cincinnati	-13.1	-14.6	-14.7
Michigan St.	Central Michigan	40.2	35.2	39.4
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	0.9	1.6	2.1
Ball St.	Kent St.	3.5	4.9	3.3
Wake Forest	Rice	39.5	34.0	38.3
East Carolina	Old Dominion	5.3	1.1	5.3
Georgia Tech	Bowling Green	28.6	27.3	27.8
Boston College	Temple	20.7	17.8	20.0
Clemson	Syracuse	24.2	22.8	25.9
Appalachian St.	South Alabama	16.5	15.9	16.8
Duke	Virginia Tech	6.6	4.7	6.3
Georgia St.	UL-Monroe	-8.1	-5.2	-7.9
Ohio U	Massachusetts	13.2	12.1	12.3
Central Florida	Pittsburgh	14.1	14.5	15.1
Kentucky	South Carolina	2.2	2.0	2.1
North Carolina St.	Virginia	12.8	12.0	13.4
Rutgers	Indiana	-9.2	-9.3	-11.0
Air Force	Nevada	6.5	7.0	6.7
Washington St.	Utah	0.7	1.4	-1.3
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	24.8	25.8	26.3
Washington	BYU	26.1	23.1	27.3
Fresno St.	Toledo	16.0	12.7	15.8
Miami (O)	Western Michigan	-1.3	-1.4	0.3
Louisville	Florida St.	-4.9	-4.1	-5.2
Penn St.	Ohio St.	-2.6	-3.2	-2.9
Georgia Southern	Arkansas St.	-0.4	-0.4	-2.0
Georgia	Tennessee	39.3	35.0	41.7
New Mexico	Liberty	11.6	15.0	11.9
Auburn	Southern Miss.	41.8	37.3	43.5
TCU	Iowa St.	6.3	7.0	5.6
Alabama	Louisiana	63.2	59.2	64.1
Oklahoma	Baylor	18.7	19.4	19.8
UTSA	UTEP	12.3	13.7	13.8
Nebraska	Purdue	-9.5	-9.3	-11.5
Kansas St.	Texas	-6.4	-6.4	-6.9
Texas Tech	West Virginia	-1.9	-2.5	-2.9
North Texas	Louisiana Tech	13.6	13.8	13.4
UAB	Charlotte	17.0	17.0	17.1
Kansas	Oklahoma St.	-10.3	-9.6	-12.7
Western Kentucky	Marshall	-8.4	-7.8	-8.3
Mississippi St.	Florida	11.2	10.4	11.1
LSU	Ole Miss	13.3	13.8	13.9
Troy	Coastal Carolina	14.8	13.0	15.8
Middle Tennessee	Florida Atlantic	-6.5	-5.6	-6.0
Arizona	USC	-3.6	-3.4	-2.5
Wyoming	Boise St.	-14.0	-13.3	-14.7
San Jose St.	Hawaii	1.6	0.1	1.0
Notre Dame	Stanford	4.4	3.5	2.2
Northwestern	Michigan	-12.4	-13.2	-13.1
Texas A&M	Arkansas	17.6	19.0	19.7
California	Oregon	1.6	-1.5	0.6

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Vanderbilt	Tennessee St.	27.9
SMU	Houston Baptist	34.0
Florida Int’l.	Ark.-Pine Bluff	43.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	139.0	136.9	140.9	138.9
2	Georgia	131.9	128.2	133.3	131.1
3	Clemson	130.3	127.5	131.1	129.6
4	Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0
5	Washington	125.5	123.1	127.4	125.3
6	Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.9	124.1
7	Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1
8	Auburn	121.5	120.3	123.7	121.8
9	Michigan St.	122.3	120.1	121.9	121.5
10	Notre Dame	121.7	118.3	120.2	120.0
11	Mississippi St.	120.5	117.8	121.1	119.8
12	Stanford	120.3	117.8	120.9	119.7
13	Oklahoma	119.4	118.1	120.0	119.2
14	Wisconsin	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
15	Miami	116.3	114.9	116.1	115.8
16	Duke	115.9	113.5	115.5	115.0
17	Boston College	115.6	112.7	115.5	114.6
18	Missouri	114.5	112.9	115.7	114.3
19	L S U	113.7	113.8	114.7	114.1
20	Texas A&M	114.2	113.0	114.6	113.9
21	Boise St.	113.8	113.0	114.2	113.7
22	S. Carolina	113.9	112.9	113.7	113.5
23	N. Carolina St.	113.7	113.3	113.4	113.5
24	West Virginia	113.8	113.0	113.4	113.4
25	Central Florida	113.1	113.1	113.4	113.2
26	Kentucky	113.1	111.9	112.8	112.6
27	Oklahoma St.	112.8	110.9	113.1	112.2
28	T C U	113.0	112.0	111.8	112.2
29	Virginia Tech	112.3	111.8	112.2	112.1
30	Florida	112.4	110.5	113.0	111.9
31	Texas	112.6	111.2	112.0	111.9
32	Iowa	112.9	110.4	112.1	111.8
33	Oregon	111.1	111.3	111.7	111.4
34	Utah	111.4	109.6	112.3	111.1
35	Fresno St.	110.3	108.6	110.2	109.7
36	Iowa State	109.7	107.9	109.1	108.9
37	Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.2	108.7
38	California	109.7	106.9	109.3	108.6
39	Washington St.	109.1	108.1	108.0	108.4
40	Syracuse	109.1	107.7	108.2	108.3
41	U S C	108.9	107.1	108.1	108.0
42	Texas Tech	108.8	107.4	107.5	107.9
43	Arizona St.	108.3	106.9	108.0	107.7
44	Georgia Tech	108.3	107.0	107.6	107.7
45	Purdue	107.3	105.6	106.9	106.6
46	N. Texas	104.6	107.1	105.6	105.7
47	Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7
48	Wake Forest	106.9	104.4	104.4	105.2
49	Memphis	103.6	105.8	104.7	104.7
50	Utah St.	103.4	104.7	104.7	104.3
51	Virginia	103.9	104.4	103.0	103.8
52	Maryland	104.5	103.1	103.6	103.7
53	Ole Miss	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
54	Minnesota	103.4	102.9	103.3	103.2
55	Houston	102.6	103.4	102.8	102.9
56	Baylor	103.7	101.7	103.2	102.9
57	BYU	102.4	103.0	103.1	102.8
58	Colorado	101.4	103.0	102.7	102.4
59	Kansas St.	103.2	101.8	102.0	102.3
60	Arizona	102.4	100.8	102.6	101.9
61	Pittsburgh	102.0	101.6	101.3	101.7
62	Vanderbilt	100.7	101.3	100.6	100.9
63	Buffalo	99.2	101.5	100.5	100.4
64	N. Carolina	100.7	99.7	100.0	100.2
65	San Diego St.	99.5	99.9	100.4	99.9
66	Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.2	99.1
67	Army	98.8	99.2	98.7	98.9
68	South Florida	97.9	100.0	97.9	98.6
69	Florida Atlantic	98.2	98.5	98.7	98.5
70	Toledo	97.8	99.5	97.9	98.4
71	Kansas	99.5	98.2	97.4	98.4
72	Arkansas	99.6	96.9	97.9	98.1
73	Temple	97.9	97.9	98.5	98.1
74	Louisville	98.2	98.2	97.4	97.9
75	Wyoming	96.8	96.7	96.6	96.7
76	Appalachian St.	95.5	97.0	96.8	96.4
77	Navy	95.3	97.8	94.9	96.0
78	Marshall	94.5	97.2	95.6	95.8
79	Tennessee	95.6	96.2	94.5	95.4
80	U C L A	96.5	96.3	93.5	95.4
81	Akron	94.7	95.9	95.0	95.2
82	Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.3	95.2
83	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.5	94.6	95.0
84	Ohio U	93.8	94.9	94.3	94.3
85	Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.7	94.2	94.1
86	Cincinnati	93.3	95.0	93.6	93.9
87	Nebraska	94.8	93.3	92.4	93.5
88	Air Force	93.4	93.7	93.2	93.4
89	Tulane	93.2	93.2	92.7	93.0
90	Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9
91	Troy	91.3	92.5	92.8	92.2
92	Illinois	91.6	91.3	90.6	91.2
93	SMU	91.7	91.1	90.7	91.2
94	Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.8	91.0
95	Florida Int’l.	89.1	93.2	89.9	90.7
96	U N L V	89.7	91.2	90.1	90.3
97	Tulsa	90.6	89.4	90.9	90.3
98	U A B	89.1	91.3	89.3	89.9
99	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.4	90.1	89.9
100	Nevada	89.9	89.7	89.5	89.7
101	Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6
102	New Mexico	87.1	89.0	87.4	87.8
103	Georgia Southern	86.5	87.9	86.8	87.1
104	Rutgers	87.7	86.8	85.8	86.8
105	UL-Monroe	86.3	85.9	86.8	86.4
106	East Carolina	86.3	86.1	86.1	86.2
107	Central Michigan	84.2	86.9	84.6	85.2
108	W. Kentucky	83.7	86.9	84.8	85.1
109	Oregon St.	86.5	84.1	84.7	85.1
110	Massachusetts	83.6	85.8	85.0	84.8
111	Old Dominion	83.5	87.5	83.3	84.8
112	Southern Miss.	82.7	85.9	83.2	84.0
113	South Alabama	81.9	84.1	82.9	83.0
114	Colo. State	82.7	83.5	82.6	82.9
115	Bowling Green	82.2	82.3	82.3	82.3
116	Ball St.	81.5	83.9	81.0	82.1
117	Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0
118	Kent St.	80.5	81.5	80.1	80.7
119	Coastal Carolina	79.5	82.5	80.1	80.7
120	U T S A	78.8	83.1	79.4	80.5
121	Louisiana	78.8	80.7	79.8	79.8
122	Liberty	79.0	77.5	79.0	78.5
123	San Jose St.	78.7	79.5	76.9	78.4
124	Connecticut	77.7	77.9	76.4	77.3
125	Georgia St.	75.8	78.2	76.4	76.8
126	N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.8	75.5
127	Charlotte	74.6	76.9	74.7	75.4
128	Texas State	71.1	74.3	70.7	72.0
129	Rice	70.4	73.4	69.1	71.0
130	U T E P	68.5	71.5	67.7	69.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.1	113.1	113.4	113.2	1-0	3-0
South Florida	97.9	100.0	97.9	98.6	1-0	4-0
Temple	97.9	97.9	98.5	98.1	1-0	2-2
Cincinnati	93.3	95.0	93.6	93.9	0-0	4-0
East Carolina	86.3	86.1	86.1	86.2	0-1	1-2
Connecticut	77.7	77.9	76.4	77.3	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	103.6	105.8	104.7	104.7	0-1	3-1
Houston	102.6	103.4	102.8	102.9	0-0	3-1
Navy	95.3	97.8	94.9	96.0	1-1	2-2
Tulane	93.2	93.2	92.7	93.0	0-0	1-3
SMU	91.7	91.1	90.7	91.2	1-0	1-3
Tulsa	90.6	89.4	90.9	90.3	0-1	1-3
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.2	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	130.3	127.5	131.1	129.6	1-0	4-0
Boston College	115.6	112.7	115.5	114.6	1-0	3-1
N. Carolina St.	113.7	113.3	113.4	113.5	0-0	3-0
Syracuse	109.1	107.7	108.2	108.3	1-0	4-0
Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7	0-2	2-2
Wake Forest	106.9	104.4	104.4	105.2	0-1	2-2
Louisville	98.2	98.2	97.4	97.9	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	116.3	114.9	116.1	115.8	0-0	3-1
Duke	115.9	113.5	115.5	115.0	0-0	4-0
Virginia Tech	112.3	111.8	112.2	112.1	1-0	2-1
Georgia Tech	108.3	107.0	107.6	107.7	0-2	1-3
Virginia	103.9	104.4	103.0	103.8	1-0	3-1
Pittsburgh	102.0	101.6	101.3	101.7	1-1	2-2
N. Carolina	100.7	99.7	100.0	100.2	1-0	1-2
ACC Averages	110.0	108.7	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.4	118.1	120.0	119.2	1-0	4-0
West Virginia	113.8	113.0	113.4	113.4	1-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	112.8	110.9	113.1	112.2	0-1	3-1
T C U	113.0	112.0	111.8	112.2	0-1	2-2
Texas	112.6	111.2	112.0	111.9	1-0	3-1
Iowa State	109.7	107.9	109.1	108.9	0-1	1-2
Texas Tech	108.8	107.4	107.5	107.9	1-0	3-1
Baylor	103.7	101.7	103.2	102.9	1-0	3-1
Kansas St.	103.2	101.8	102.0	102.3	0-1	2-2
Kansas	99.5	98.2	97.4	98.4	0-1	2-2
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0	1-0	4-0
Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.9	124.1	1-0	3-1
Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1	1-0	4-0
Michigan St.	122.3	120.1	121.9	121.5	1-0	2-1
Maryland	104.5	103.1	103.6	103.7	1-0	3-1
Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.2	99.1	0-1	3-1
Rutgers	87.7	86.8	85.8	86.8	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	1-0	3-1
Iowa	112.9	110.4	112.1	111.8	0-1	3-1
Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.2	108.7	1-0	1-2
Purdue	107.3	105.6	106.9	106.6	0-1	1-3
Minnesota	103.4	102.9	103.3	103.2	0-1	3-1
Nebraska	94.8	93.3	92.4	93.5	0-1	0-3
Illinois	91.6	91.3	90.6	91.2	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.2	98.5	98.7	98.5	0-0	2-2
Marshall	94.5	97.2	95.6	95.8	0-0	2-1
Florida Int’l.	89.1	93.2	89.9	90.7	1-0	2-2
Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.4	90.1	89.9	0-0	1-2
W. Kentucky	83.7	86.9	84.8	85.1	0-0	1-3
Old Dominion	83.5	87.5	83.3	84.8	0-2	1-3
Charlotte	74.6	76.9	74.7	75.4	1-0	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	104.6	107.1	105.6	105.7	0-0	4-0
Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.3	95.2	0-0	2-1
U A B	89.1	91.3	89.3	89.9	0-0	2-1
Southern Miss.	82.7	85.9	83.2	84.0	1-0	2-1
U T S A	78.8	83.1	79.4	80.5	0-0	1-3
Rice	70.4	73.4	69.1	71.0	0-1	1-3
U T E P	68.5	71.5	67.7	69.2	0-0	0-4
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.7	118.3	120.2	120.0	x	4-0
BYU	102.4	103.0	103.1	102.8	x	3-1
Army	98.8	99.2	98.7	98.9	x	2-2
Massachusetts	83.6	85.8	85.0	84.8	x	2-3
Liberty	79.0	77.5	79.0	78.5	x	1-2
N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.8	75.5	x	1-4
Indep. Averages	93.4	93.4	93.5	93.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.2	101.5	100.5	100.4	1-0	4-0
Akron	94.7	95.9	95.0	95.2	0-0	2-1
Ohio U	93.8	94.9	94.3	94.3	0-0	1-2
Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6	1-0	1-3
Bowling Green	82.2	82.3	82.3	82.3	0-1	1-3
Kent St.	80.5	81.5	80.1	80.7	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.8	99.5	97.9	98.4	0-0	2-1
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.5	94.6	95.0	1-0	1-3
Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.7	94.2	94.1	0-1	2-2
Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9	0-0	2-2
Central Michigan	84.2	86.9	84.6	85.2	0-1	1-3
Ball St.	81.5	83.9	81.0	82.1	0-0	1-3
MAC Averages	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	113.8	113.0	114.2	113.7	0-0	2-1
Utah St.	103.4	104.7	104.7	104.3	1-0	3-1
Wyoming	96.8	96.7	96.6	96.7	0-0	2-2
Air Force	93.4	93.7	93.2	93.4	0-1	1-2
New Mexico	87.1	89.0	87.4	87.8	0-0	2-1
Colo. State	82.7	83.5	82.6	82.9	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.3	108.6	110.2	109.7	0-0	2-1
San Diego St.	99.5	99.9	100.4	99.9	0-0	3-1
U N L V	89.7	91.2	90.1	90.3	0-0	2-2
Nevada	89.9	89.7	89.5	89.7	0-0	2-2
Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0	1-0	4-1
San Jose St.	78.7	79.5	76.9	78.4	0-0	0-3
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	125.5	123.1	127.4	125.3	2-0	3-1
Stanford	120.3	117.8	120.9	119.7	2-0	4-0
Oregon	111.1	111.3	111.7	111.4	0-1	3-1
Washington St.	109.1	108.1	108.0	108.4	0-1	3-1
California	109.7	106.9	109.3	108.6	0-0	3-0
Oregon St.	86.5	84.1	84.7	85.1	0-1	1-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	111.4	109.6	112.3	111.1	0-1	2-1
U S C	108.9	107.1	108.1	108.0	1-1	2-2
Arizona St.	108.3	106.9	108.0	107.7	0-1	2-2
Colorado	101.4	103.0	102.7	102.4	0-0	3-0
Arizona	102.4	100.8	102.6	101.9	1-0	2-2
U C L A	96.5	96.3	93.5	95.4	0-0	0-3
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.2	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.9	128.2	133.3	131.1	2-0	4-0
Missouri	114.5	112.9	115.7	114.3	0-1	3-1
S. Carolina	113.9	112.9	113.7	113.5	1-1	2-1
Kentucky	113.1	111.9	112.8	112.6	2-0	4-0
Florida	112.4	110.5	113.0	111.9	1-1	3-1
Vanderbilt	100.7	101.3	100.6	100.9	0-1	2-2
Tennessee	95.6	96.2	94.5	95.4	0-1	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	139.0	136.9	140.9	138.9	2-0	4-0
Auburn	121.5	120.3	123.7	121.8	1-1	3-1
Mississippi St.	120.5	117.8	121.1	119.8	0-1	3-1
L S U	113.7	113.8	114.7	114.1	1-0	4-0
Texas A&M	114.2	113.0	114.6	113.9	0-1	2-2
Ole Miss	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4	0-1	3-1
Arkansas	99.6	96.9	97.9	98.1	0-1	1-3
SEC Averages	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	95.5	97.0	96.8	96.4	0-0	2-1
Troy	91.3	92.5	92.8	92.2	1-0	3-1
Georgia Southern	86.5	87.9	86.8	87.1	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	79.5	82.5	80.1	80.7	1-0	3-1
Georgia St.	75.8	78.2	76.4	76.8	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.8	91.0	0-0	3-1
UL-Monroe	86.3	85.9	86.8	86.4	0-1	2-2
South Alabama	81.9	84.1	82.9	83.0	1-0	1-3
Louisiana	78.8	80.7	79.8	79.8	0-1	1-2
Texas State	71.1	74.3	70.7	72.0	0-1	1-3
Sun Belt Averages	83.7	85.4	84.5	84.5

 

The Conference Ratings

 

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
2	ACC	110.0	108.7	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
5	P-12	107.6	106.2	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.2	95.5
7	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
8	IND	93.4	93.4	93.5	93.4
9	MAC	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.7	85.4	84.5	84.5

Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida

2. South Florida

3. North Texas

4. Cincinnati

5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	Southern Miss.
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Washington St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[UNLV]	Toledo
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	UAB
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Houston	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	[Army]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	[Utah]	Iowa St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Florida Atlantic	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Wyoming]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Akron]	[BYU]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virgnia	[Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia Tech	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	LSU
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Florida
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Miami (Fla.)	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Georgia Southern
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma	Oregon
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	Auburn
Peach	At-large	At-large	Notre Dame	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina St.	Colorado
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	USC
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Syracuse	South Carolina
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Kentucky
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Stanford	Ohio St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Mississippi St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton	FBS	PLAYOFF	Alabama	Penn St.
Orange	FBS	PLAYOFF	Clemson	Georgia
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Best TV Games This Week

All Game Times, Eastern Daylight

Games in Red Are Top 3 of the Day

Time	Home Team	Visitor	Network
12:00 PM	Clemson	Syracuse	ABC
12:00 PM	Buffalo	Army	CBSSN
12:00 PM	Texas Tech	West Virginia	ESPN2
12:20 PM	North Carolina St.	Virginia	ACCN
3:30 PM	Kansas St.	Texas	FS1
4:30 PM	Northwestern	Michigan	Fox
6:00 PM	Mississippi St.	Florida	ESPN
6:00 PM	Washington St.	Utah	Pac-12
7:00 PM	Duke	Virginia Tech	ESPN2
7:30 PM	Penn St.	Ohio St.	ABC
7:30 PM	Notre Dame	Stanford	NBC
7:30 PM	Kentucky	South Carolina	SEC
9:15 PM	LSU	Ole Miss	ESPN
10:30 PM	Fresno St.	Toledo	ESPNU
10:30 PM	California	Oregon	FS1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 20-24, 2018

Hooray for once.  The PiRate Ratings official picks last week enjoyed a nice winning record, sending the year to date record into positive territory.  It is a small profit, as the return on investment is just 1.92%, but at least it isn’t a red number.  Better yet, our straight picks against the spread or in the totals have a record of 11-6-1 for the season.  It is the exotic picks that have stunk up the joint.  Thus, we will go with just straight picks this week.

Best of all, out special Land Sharps are just torching the books with their selections.  One of the sharps, Buckeye Michelle, has been insane with her picks the last two weeks, and we have received messages from some of our regular subscribers asking for more information about her.  First of all, we are not in the business of matchmaking, so don’t ask.  And, yes, she is an incredibly beautiful 29-year old football fanatic.

One of you actually revealed to us that you know who Stewed Meat is.  Stewed is a real sharp.  Stewed lives in Nevada, and handicapping is Stewed career.  Stewed has shown us something special this week that many people never get the opportunity to see performed–playing the middle against both sides.  We’ll explain more about this at the end.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Selections Against The Spread

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wisconsin	Iowa	3.5	Iowa
Louisiana	Coastal Carolina	4.5	Coastal Carolina
North Carolina St.	Marshall	4.5	North Carolina St.
Maryland	Minnesota	3	Minnesota
Stanford	Oregon	1.5	Stanford
West Virginia	Kansas St.	17	Kansas St.
Chicago	Arizona	7	Arizona
Philadelphia	Indianapolis	6	Philadelphia
Green Bay	Washington	3	Washington

Now for the Land Sharps.  At the present time, this is how each has done so far.

Buckeye Michelle is 9-1 for 90% against the spread and +$790 a 79% ROI

Cal Gal Tiffy is 9-3 for 75% against the spread and +$570 a 47.5% ROI

Friday Dog 13 is 4-2 for 67% against the spread and +$180 a 30% ROI

Stewed Meat is 6-4 for 60% against the spread and +$160 a 16% ROI

Dean 615 is 3-3 for 50% against the spread and -$30 a -5% ROI

If more than one of our expert pickers agree on picking the same game, it must be a strong pick.  You will notice that a couple of games were selected by multiple sharps this week.  You will also notice that a couple of sharps picked against each other.

If you are just tuning in to this feature, the rules are simple.  The 5 participants can select against the margin or going over or under the total for any FBS college football game.  They can select 3, 5,7, or 9 games each week.  We then select the most favorable spread available at oddshark.com.

Here are the Land Sharps Picks For the Week.

Buckeye Michelle

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Wake Forest +8 vs. Notre Dame

Army +32 vs. Oklahoma

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

 

Cal Gal Tiffy

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

South Carolina -2 vs. Vanderbilt

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

UTSA -7 vs. Texas St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Penn St. -28 vs. Illinois

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

Virginia -5 vs. Louisville

Clemson -16 vs. Georgia Tech

TCU -3 vs. Texas

 

Stewed Meat

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Iowa +3.5 vs. Wisconsin

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

Louisville +5.5 vs. Virginia

 

Dean 615

Notre Dame -7 vs. Wake Forest

Michigan St. -4.5 vs. Indiana

USC -3.5 vs. Washington St.

Texas +3.5 vs. TCU

Nebraska +18 vs. Michigan

 

Special Look At Stewed Meat’s Real Life Strategy

Stewed is an expert at “Middling”.  In order to be able to do this, Stewed gets access to playing the early line and then immediately plays one side of a game in which Stewed believes the line is off and will move in the opposite direction of which Stewed originally played.  Then, when the line moves in the opposite direction, Stewed plays the other side

Let’s look at an example.  Let’s say Alabama opens as a 14.5 point favorite over Auburn, and Stewed likes Auburn at this number.  So Stewed wagers on Auburn at +14.5.  During the week, a lot of other people believe 14.5 points are too much for Alabama, and they bet the spread down to 11.5.  Now, Stewed wagers on Alabama at -11.5.

On the surface, you might think this is nuts.  Stewed will have a slim chance of the game ending up at 12, 13, or 14 points in Alabama’s favor, giving Stewed two wins.  In most cases, Stewed will win one and lose one and lose $10 for every $100 wagered on both sides.

However, if you look at the 11-10 odds and do a little mathematical calculations, Stewed only needs to have the game come in at the middle of the extremes one time out of 19 in order to turn a profit, plus Stewed has a Margin of Safety in place, because the most Stewed can lose is 10% on the dollar wagered.

Earlier this week, Stewed Wagered on the following games that have seen a significant line change and then wagered on the other team once the line moved in the other direction.

SMU +12.5 vs. Navy

Navy -7 vs. SMU

 

Ball St. Pk vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky +3 vs. Ball St.

 

Alabama -23.5 vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M +27 vs. Alabama

 

Auburn -24 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas +30 vs. Auburn

If just one of these four games come in with the spread in the middle, Stewed will turn a nice profit.

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday,	September 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Temple	Tulsa	8.4	9.6	8.3

 

Friday	September 21
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Central Florida	Florida Atlantic	17.3	16.5	16.6
Illinois	Penn St.	-26.8	-23.9	-28.2
USC	Washington St.	2.8	1.8	3.1

 

Saturday	September 22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa St.	Akron	18.5	15.2	17.5
Marshall	North Carolina St.	-16.0	-12.5	-14.4
Massachusetts	Charlotte	10.2	9.7	11.0
Indiana	Michigan St.	-20.5	-18.8	-20.5
Maryland	Minnesota	-2.4	-3.4	-3.3
Ball St.	Western Kentucky	1.6	0.6	-0.2
Purdue	Boston College	-10.2	-9.0	-11.1
Syracuse	Connecticut	33.9	32.3	34.3
Miami (Fla.)	Florida Int’l.	32.4	26.6	31.4
North Carolina	Pittsburgh	0.8	0.0	0.6
Florida St.	Northern Illinois	13.6	11.8	13.0
Bowling Green	Miami (O)	-3.6	-5.3	-4.1
Ohio St.	Tulane	37.3	34.7	38.4
Georgia Tech	Clemson	-18.0	-15.8	-19.2
Cincinnati	Ohio U	1.8	2.2	1.0
South Florida	East Carolina	15.4	18.9	17.0
Wake Forest	Notre Dame	-7.7	-6.4	-8.5
Toledo	Nevada	9.0	10.8	9.1
Virginia	Louisville	4.8	5.2	4.4
Georgia St.	Western Michigan	-11.4	-10.3	-11.3
Rutgers	Buffalo	-2.3	-5.5	-5.7
Oregon St.	Arizona	-10.1	-10.8	-11.6
Oregon	Stanford	-5.6	-3.0	-5.5
Tennessee	Florida	-10.9	-8.8	-12.0
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	-12.1	-10.6	-12.9
Michigan	Nebraska	26.9	27.2	29.8
West Virginia	Kansas St.	9.5	10.0	9.8
Ole Miss	Kent St.	26.5	25.3	28.1
Southern Miss.	Rice	14.9	15.1	16.7
Auburn	Arkansas	24.7	26.1	28.6
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	14.7	14.3	16.3
SMU	Navy	-1.6	-5.2	-2.3
Louisiana	Coastal Carolina	3.7	2.6	4.1
Arkansas St.	UNLV	2.6	2.3	3.9
Texas	TCU	0.2	-0.4	0.4
Oklahoma	Army	29.5	27.8	30.2
LSU	Louisiana Tech	23.0	20.4	22.9
Baylor	Kansas	4.4	3.3	5.9
Vanderbilt	South Carolina	-7.1	-5.2	-6.3
Memphis	South Alabama	26.8	27.0	27.3
Utah St.	Air Force	13.2	14.6	15.3
UTEP	New Mexico St.	-3.9	-3.1	-4.5
UTSA	Texas St.	11.1	12.4	12.5
UL-Monroe	Troy	-1.2	-2.9	-2.0
Old Dominion	Virginia Tech	-34.2	-29.7	-34.3
Liberty	North Texas	-17.1	-21.5	-17.8
Missouri	Georgia	-14.7	-12.5	-14.9
Alabama	Texas A&M	28.9	28.0	30.4
Iowa	Wisconsin	0.3	0.6	0.1
Washington	Arizona St.	22.5	21.5	25.4
San Diego St.	Eastern Michigan	10.9	10.1	11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Colorado St.	Illinois St.	10.5
Central Michigan	Maine	5.0
Duke	UNC-Central	49.9
Appalachian St.	Gardner-Webb	40.9
BYU	McNeese St.	19.0
Houston	Texas Southern	45.6
Hawaii	Duquesne	27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	139.3	137.2	141.2	139.2
2	Georgia	132.2	128.4	133.6	131.4
3	Clemson	129.8	126.7	130.5	129.0
4	Ohio St.	128.7	126.2	129.3	128.1
5	Washington	126.8	124.4	129.1	126.7
6	Mississippi St.	123.8	121.1	124.4	123.1
7	Oklahoma	122.6	121.3	123.2	122.4
8	Michigan	122.3	121.1	122.8	122.0
9	Penn St.	122.7	119.8	123.2	121.9
10	Michigan St.	122.6	120.3	122.3	121.8
11	Auburn	121.4	120.2	123.6	121.7
12	Stanford	120.0	117.6	120.5	119.4
13	Notre Dame	119.4	115.8	117.8	117.6
14	Miami	117.9	116.3	117.7	117.3
15	Boston College	118.2	115.3	118.4	117.3
16	Virginia Tech	116.5	116.0	116.4	116.3
17	Wisconsin	117.0	114.3	116.6	116.0
18	Oklahoma St.	116.4	114.6	116.7	115.9
19	Duke	115.6	113.2	115.2	114.7
20	L S U	114.1	114.0	115.2	114.4
21	Missouri	114.5	113.0	115.7	114.4
22	T C U	114.2	113.3	113.2	113.5
23	Boise St.	113.5	112.7	113.9	113.4
24	Iowa	114.3	111.9	113.7	113.3
25	N. Carolina St.	113.6	113.0	113.2	113.3
26	Texas A&M	113.4	112.2	113.8	113.1
27	Central Florida	113.0	112.8	113.1	113.0
28	S. Carolina	112.3	111.1	111.7	111.7
29	Oregon	111.4	111.5	112.1	111.7
30	West Virginia	112.0	111.2	111.4	111.5
31	Utah	111.1	109.3	112.0	110.8
32	Texas	111.4	109.9	110.6	110.6
33	Florida	110.8	109.1	111.1	110.3
34	Fresno St.	110.0	108.3	109.9	109.4
35	Iowa State	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
36	Georgia Tech	109.3	108.3	108.7	108.8
37	Washington St.	109.1	108.2	108.0	108.4
38	Northwestern	109.1	107.2	108.9	108.4
39	California	109.4	106.6	109.0	108.3
40	Kentucky	108.8	107.6	108.5	108.3
41	Syracuse	109.0	107.6	108.1	108.2
42	U S C	108.9	107.0	108.1	108.0
43	Wake Forest	108.7	106.4	106.3	107.1
44	Arizona St.	107.3	105.9	106.6	106.6
45	Minnesota	106.7	106.2	106.6	106.5
46	Memphis	105.0	107.3	106.3	106.2
47	Florida St.	105.8	104.9	105.1	105.2
48	Kansas St.	105.5	104.1	104.5	104.7
49	Utah St.	103.5	105.0	105.1	104.5
50	Purdue	105.0	103.3	104.3	104.2
51	Ole Miss	104.0	103.7	104.8	104.1
52	Texas Tech	104.7	103.2	103.4	103.8
53	Vanderbilt	102.6	103.4	102.9	103.0
54	BYU	102.2	102.8	102.9	102.6
55	N. Texas	101.4	104.1	102.2	102.5
56	Houston	102.1	102.9	102.3	102.4
57	Colorado	101.1	102.7	102.4	102.1
58	Pittsburgh	102.3	102.0	101.7	102.0
59	Virginia	102.2	102.7	101.1	102.0
60	Baylor	102.3	100.1	101.7	101.4
61	San Diego St.	100.2	100.7	101.4	100.7
62	Arizona	101.2	99.5	101.1	100.6
63	Maryland	101.2	99.8	100.3	100.4
64	Louisville	100.4	100.4	99.8	100.2
65	N. Carolina	100.6	99.5	99.8	100.0
66	Kansas	100.9	99.8	98.9	99.9
67	South Florida	98.3	101.0	99.0	99.4
68	Indiana	99.1	98.5	98.8	98.8
69	Florida Atlantic	98.3	98.8	99.0	98.7
70	Arkansas	99.7	97.0	98.0	98.2
71	Temple	97.2	97.2	97.6	97.3
72	Toledo	96.6	98.3	96.5	97.1
73	Nebraska	98.4	96.9	96.0	97.1
74	Tennessee	96.9	97.3	96.1	96.8
75	Buffalo	95.4	97.7	96.7	96.6
76	Wyoming	96.6	96.5	96.4	96.5
77	Navy	95.5	98.3	95.2	96.4
78	Army	96.1	96.5	96.0	96.2
79	Marshall	94.6	97.5	95.8	96.0
80	Northern Illinois	95.3	96.0	95.1	95.5
81	Appalachian St.	94.5	96.0	95.8	95.4
82	U C L A	96.2	96.0	93.2	95.1
83	Akron	94.4	95.8	94.8	95.0
84	Louisiana Tech	93.6	96.1	94.8	94.8
85	Ohio U	93.9	95.1	94.7	94.6
86	Tulane	94.3	94.6	93.9	94.3
87	Cincinnati	93.2	94.8	93.2	93.7
88	Air Force	93.3	93.4	92.8	93.2
89	Eastern Michigan	92.3	93.6	92.9	92.9
90	Illinois	93.0	92.9	92.0	92.6
91	Troy	90.9	92.2	92.3	91.8
92	Western Michigan	90.9	92.5	91.7	91.7
93	Tulsa	91.3	90.1	91.8	91.1
94	Nevada	91.1	90.9	90.9	91.0
95	SMU	91.5	90.6	90.4	90.8
96	U N L V	90.0	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Arkansas St.	89.6	91.0	91.4	90.7
98	Miami (O)	89.0	90.7	89.7	89.8
99	U A B	88.9	91.1	89.1	89.7
100	Middle Tennessee	89.0	90.2	89.9	89.7
101	Rutgers	90.5	89.6	88.6	89.6
102	Florida Int’l.	87.5	91.8	88.3	89.2
103	New Mexico	86.9	88.8	87.2	87.6
104	Georgia Southern	86.3	87.7	86.6	86.9
105	UL-Monroe	86.7	86.2	87.3	86.8
106	Oregon St.	88.0	85.7	86.5	86.7
107	East Carolina	85.9	85.1	85.0	85.3
108	Central Michigan	84.0	86.7	84.4	85.0
109	W. Kentucky	83.1	86.3	84.2	84.5
110	Massachusetts	83.2	85.2	84.4	84.3
111	Colo. State	84.0	84.8	83.9	84.2
112	Southern Miss.	82.5	85.7	83.0	83.8
113	Bowling Green	83.4	83.4	83.6	83.5
114	Ball St.	82.1	84.5	81.6	82.7
115	South Alabama	81.2	83.3	82.0	82.2
116	U T S A	79.4	83.8	80.2	81.2
117	Old Dominion	79.8	83.8	79.6	81.1
118	Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0
119	Liberty	81.2	79.5	81.4	80.7
120	Kent St.	80.4	81.4	79.6	80.5
121	Louisiana	79.5	81.4	80.5	80.5
122	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.8	79.4	80.0
123	Georgia St.	77.1	79.7	77.9	78.2
124	San Jose St.	78.5	79.3	76.7	78.2
125	Connecticut	78.1	78.3	76.8	77.7
126	Charlotte	75.0	77.5	75.3	75.9
127	N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.6	75.4
128	Texas State	70.8	73.9	70.2	71.6
129	Rice	70.6	73.6	69.3	71.2
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.2	69.6

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.0	112.8	113.1	113.0	1-0	2-0
South Florida	98.3	101.0	99.0	99.4	0-0	3-0
Temple	97.2	97.2	97.6	97.3	0-0	1-2
Cincinnati	93.2	94.8	93.2	93.7	0-0	3-0
East Carolina	85.9	85.1	85.0	85.3	0-0	1-1
Connecticut	78.1	78.3	76.8	77.7	0-1	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.0	107.3	106.3	106.2	0-1	2-1
Houston	102.1	102.9	102.3	102.4	0-0	2-1
Navy	95.5	98.3	95.2	96.4	1-0	2-1
Tulane	94.3	94.6	93.9	94.3	0-0	1-2
Tulsa	91.3	90.1	91.8	91.1	0-0	1-2
SMU	91.5	90.6	90.4	90.8	0-0	0-3
AAC Averages	95.5	96.1	95.4	95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	129.8	126.7	130.5	129.0	0-0	3-0
Boston College	118.2	115.3	118.4	117.3	1-0	3-0
N. Carolina St.	113.6	113.0	113.2	113.3	0-0	2-0
Syracuse	109.0	107.6	108.1	108.2	1-0	3-0
Wake Forest	108.7	106.4	106.3	107.1	0-1	2-1
Florida St.	105.8	104.9	105.1	105.2	0-2	1-2
Louisville	100.4	100.4	99.8	100.2	0-0	2-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	117.9	116.3	117.7	117.3	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	116.5	116.0	116.4	116.3	1-0	2-0
Duke	115.6	113.2	115.2	114.7	0-0	3-0
Georgia Tech	109.3	108.3	108.7	108.8	0-1	1-2
Pittsburgh	102.3	102.0	101.7	102.0	1-0	2-1
Virginia	102.2	102.7	101.1	102.0	0-0	2-1
N. Carolina	100.6	99.5	99.8	100.0	0-0	0-2
ACC Averages	110.7	109.5	110.2	110.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.6	121.3	123.2	122.4	1-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	116.4	114.6	116.7	115.9	0-0	3-0
T C U	114.2	113.3	113.2	113.5	0-0	2-1
West Virginia	112.0	111.2	111.4	111.5	0-0	2-0
Texas	111.4	109.9	110.6	110.6	0-0	2-1
Iowa State	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1	0-1	0-2
Kansas St.	105.5	104.1	104.5	104.7	0-0	2-1
Texas Tech	104.7	103.2	103.4	103.8	0-0	2-1
Baylor	102.3	100.1	101.7	101.4	0-0	2-1
Kansas	100.9	99.8	98.9	99.9	0-0	2-1
Big 12 Averages	110.0	108.5	109.3	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	126.2	129.3	128.1	1-0	3-0
Michigan	122.3	121.1	122.8	122.0	0-0	2-1
Penn St.	122.7	119.8	123.2	121.9	0-0	3-0
Michigan St.	122.6	120.3	122.3	121.8	0-0	1-1
Maryland	101.2	99.8	100.3	100.4	0-0	2-1
Indiana	99.1	98.5	98.8	98.8	0-0	3-0
Rutgers	90.5	89.6	88.6	89.6	0-1	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.0	114.3	116.6	116.0	0-0	2-1
Iowa	114.3	111.9	113.7	113.3	0-0	3-0
Northwestern	109.1	107.2	108.9	108.4	1-0	1-2
Minnesota	106.7	106.2	106.6	106.5	0-0	3-0
Purdue	105.0	103.3	104.3	104.2	0-1	0-3
Nebraska	98.4	96.9	96.0	97.1	0-0	0-2
Illinois	93.0	92.9	92.0	92.6	0-0	2-1
Big Ten Averages	109.3	107.7	108.8	108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.3	98.8	99.0	98.7	0-0	2-1
Marshall	94.6	97.5	95.8	96.0	0-0	2-0
Middle Tennessee	89.0	90.2	89.9	89.7	0-0	1-2
Florida Int’l.	87.5	91.8	88.3	89.2	1-0	2-1
W. Kentucky	83.1	86.3	84.2	84.5	0-0	0-3
Old Dominion	79.8	83.8	79.6	81.1	0-2	0-3
Charlotte	75.0	77.5	75.3	75.9	1-0	2-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	101.4	104.1	102.2	102.5	0-0	3-0
Louisiana Tech	93.6	96.1	94.8	94.8	0-0	2-0
U A B	88.9	91.1	89.1	89.7	0-0	2-1
Southern Miss.	82.5	85.7	83.0	83.8	0-0	1-1
U T S A	79.4	83.8	80.2	81.2	0-0	0-3
Rice	70.6	73.6	69.3	71.2	0-0	1-2
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.2	69.6	0-0	0-3
CUSA Averages	85.2	88.0	85.7	86.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	119.4	115.8	117.8	117.6	x	3-0
BYU	102.2	102.8	102.9	102.6	x	2-1
Army	96.1	96.5	96.0	96.2	x	2-1
Massachusetts	83.2	85.2	84.4	84.3	x	1-3
Liberty	81.2	79.5	81.4	80.7	x	1-1
N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.6	75.4	x	0-4
Indep. Averages	92.8	92.8	92.9	92.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	95.4	97.7	96.7	96.6	1-0	3-0
Akron	94.4	95.8	94.8	95.0	0-0	2-0
Ohio U	93.9	95.1	94.7	94.6	0-0	1-1
Miami (O)	89.0	90.7	89.7	89.8	0-0	0-3
Bowling Green	83.4	83.4	83.6	83.5	0-0	1-2
Kent St.	80.4	81.4	79.6	80.5	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	96.6	98.3	96.5	97.1	0-0	1-1
Northern Illinois	95.3	96.0	95.1	95.5	1-0	1-2
Eastern Michigan	92.3	93.6	92.9	92.9	0-1	2-1
Western Michigan	90.9	92.5	91.7	91.7	0-0	1-2
Central Michigan	84.0	86.7	84.4	85.0	0-1	0-3
Ball St.	82.1	84.5	81.6	82.7	0-0	1-2
MAC Averages	89.8	91.3	90.1	90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	113.5	112.7	113.9	113.4	0-0	2-1
Utah St.	103.5	105.0	105.1	104.5	0-0	2-1
Wyoming	96.6	96.5	96.4	96.5	0-0	2-2
Air Force	93.3	93.4	92.8	93.2	0-0	1-1
New Mexico	86.9	88.8	87.2	87.6	0-0	2-1
Colo. State	84.0	84.8	83.9	84.2	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.0	108.3	109.9	109.4	0-0	2-1
San Diego St.	100.2	100.7	101.4	100.7	0-0	2-1
Nevada	91.1	90.9	90.9	91.0	0-0	2-1
U N L V	90.0	91.6	90.5	90.7	0-0	2-1
Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0	1-0	3-1
San Jose St.	78.5	79.3	76.7	78.2	0-0	0-3
MWC Averages	94.0	94.6	94.0	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	126.8	124.4	129.1	126.7	1-0	2-1
Stanford	120.0	117.6	120.5	119.4	1-0	3-0
Oregon	111.4	111.5	112.1	111.7	0-0	3-0
Washington St.	109.1	108.2	108.0	108.4	0-0	3-0
California	109.4	106.6	109.0	108.3	0-0	3-0
Oregon St.	88.0	85.7	86.5	86.7	0-0	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	111.1	109.3	112.0	110.8	0-1	2-1
U S C	108.9	107.0	108.1	108.0	0-1	1-2
Arizona St.	107.3	105.9	106.6	106.6	0-0	2-1
Colorado	101.1	102.7	102.4	102.1	0-0	3-0
Arizona	101.2	99.5	101.1	100.6	0-0	1-2
U C L A	96.2	96.0	93.2	95.1	0-0	0-3
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.4	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	132.2	128.4	133.6	131.4	1-0	3-0
Missouri	114.5	113.0	115.7	114.4	0-0	3-0
S. Carolina	112.3	111.1	111.7	111.7	0-1	1-1
Florida	110.8	109.1	111.1	110.3	0-1	2-1
Kentucky	108.8	107.6	108.5	108.3	1-0	3-0
Vanderbilt	102.6	103.4	102.9	103.0	0-0	2-1
Tennessee	96.9	97.3	96.1	96.8	0-0	2-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	139.3	137.2	141.2	139.2	1-0	3-0
Mississippi St.	123.8	121.1	124.4	123.1	0-0	3-0
Auburn	121.4	120.2	123.6	121.7	0-1	2-1
L S U	114.1	114.0	115.2	114.4	1-0	3-0
Texas A&M	113.4	112.2	113.8	113.1	0-0	2-1
Ole Miss	104.0	103.7	104.8	104.1	0-1	2-1
Arkansas	99.7	97.0	98.0	98.2	0-0	1-2
SEC Averages	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	94.5	96.0	95.8	95.4	0-0	1-1
Troy	90.9	92.2	92.3	91.8	0-0	2-1
Georgia Southern	86.3	87.7	86.6	86.9	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.8	79.4	80.0	0-0	2-1
Georgia St.	77.1	79.7	77.9	78.2	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.6	91.0	91.4	90.7	0-0	2-1
UL-Monroe	86.7	86.2	87.3	86.8	0-0	2-1
South Alabama	81.2	83.3	82.0	82.2	1-0	1-2
Louisiana	79.5	81.4	80.5	80.5	0-0	1-1
Texas State	70.8	73.9	70.2	71.6	0-1	1-2
Sun Belt Averages	83.5	85.3	84.3	84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
2	ACC	110.7	109.5	110.2	110.1
3	B12	110.0	108.5	109.3	109.3
4	BTEN	109.3	107.7	108.8	108.6
5	P-12	107.5	106.2	107.4	107.0
6	AAC	95.5	96.1	95.4	95.6
7	MWC	94.0	94.6	94.0	94.2
8	IND	92.8	92.8	92.9	92.8
9	MAC	89.8	91.3	90.1	90.4
10	CUSA	85.2	88.0	85.7	86.3
11	SUN	83.5	85.3	84.3	84.4

This Week’s Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. South Florida
2. Central Florida
3. North Texas
4. Cincinnati
5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	[Northern Illinois]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Akron	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	UAB	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Marshall	Western Michigan
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[Utah]	Toledo
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Houston	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Buffalo	Utah St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Navy	[BYU]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Army]	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Wake Forest	Indiana
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	California
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	South Carolina
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Duke	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	Auburn
Peach	At-large	At-large	Virginia Tech	Oklahoma St.
Military	AAC	ACC	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Syracuse	Colorado
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Kentucky
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Stanford