The Mountain West Conference is the only Group of 5 league that didn’t have realignment issues in the past 12 months. Rumors abound that Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State could be on the radar screen with either the Pac-12 or Big 12 Conferences, but those are just rumors for now.
The MWC has enjoyed quite a bit of success in the last decade. Last year, eight MWC teams earned bowl bids. Two of the bowl games were cancelled due to Covid, but in the six bowl games played, MWC teams went 5-1. In the history of this league, MWC teams have won 57% of their bowl games. Only the SEC and the Sun Belt have better bowl game winning percentages in that time.
2022 should be another banner year for the league. Three teams have a chance to compete for the lone New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid.
Mountain West PiRate Ratings
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Boise St.
106.0
104.9
106.9
105.9
Air Force
100.9
100.8
102.3
101.3
Utah St.
95.4
95.8
96.6
95.9
Colorado St.
88.5
89.8
89.0
89.1
Wyoming
83.9
86.6
85.0
85.2
New Mexico
80.3
81.0
79.0
80.1
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Fresno St.
103.2
102.5
104.5
103.4
San Diego St.
97.4
97.4
97.8
97.6
Nevada
87.0
89.1
86.8
87.6
U N L V
88.4
85.9
88.0
87.5
San Jose St.
86.8
87.2
87.9
87.3
Hawaii
78.5
80.0
79.3
79.2
MWC
91.4
91.7
91.9
91.7
Mountain West Preseason Media Poll
Votes
#
Mountain
1st Place
Overall
1
Boise St.
14
151
2
Air Force
10
136
3
Utah St.
3
122
4
Colorado St.
1
90
5
Wyoming
0
60
6
New Mexico
0
29
#
West
1st Place
Overall
1
Fresno St.
20
160
2
San Diego St.
8
148
3
San Jose St.
0
105
4
Nevada
0
66
5
UNLV
0
58
6
Hawaii
0
51
The PiRate Rating are designed to be used for the next week of football games and not meant to be used to predict won-loss records. Nevertheless, here are the projected won-loss records.
The last three weeks of PiRate Picks have seen an incredible winning streak only seen twice before at this site. In that time, we wagered on 11 different Money Line parlays and single games, all at odds of +150 or more. At 100 imaginary dollars per imaginary wager, we have seen an imaginary return of $2,770.35, for an imaginary profit of $1,670.35. That comes to an imaginary return on investment of 152% !
Last week, we placed a governor on our wagering engine informing you that we had guaranteed ourselves a winning season in imaginary funds, and we had no plans to give the imaginary windfall profits back to the books. We selected two high odds parlays at +201.37 and +150.77. Both of them won for us, although we had to sweat out Alabama’s beating Auburn.
This week being Championship Week, there are few options to choose from with just a tad over a dozen games. We did not have a parlay jump off the sheet. We had to go looking for value and really found very little. If this were for real, we would pocket our profits and withdraw it from the books. But, to not play any parlays would mean you have no reason to read this week’s publication. So, we painstakingly compared odds trying to shop for an extra 5% benefit, and we came up with two parlays that have the odds we want.
If this is your first visit to this site or this weekly feature, here is an important disclaimer: We never play these selections for real. It is strictly an exercise in mathematical fun. We strongly urge you not to play these picks, unless they simply verify the selections you have already considered. We know that about 25-30 of you reading this feature would be considered professional handicappers/players in Nevada and offshore. We don’t worry about your profit/loss from wagering, because that’s your profession and you look at dozens of references. But, if you are reading this and have a legal account with one of the big handicapping corporations, you most likely won’t be able to play these selections at the odds we issue, because we shop around until we find the best odds. In order to replicate our odds, you would have to open accounts with six different books that we have found the best odds this year. Next year, it could be different books entirely.
Like every other conference in 2020, the Mountain West Conference was forced to make some eleventh hour changes, delaying the start of the season to late October. One team, Colorado State, played just four games. Several teams made it to six games. A couple played seven times, and no team played double digit games.
Divisional play was cancelled last year, with the top two finishers facing off in the MWC Championship Game. San Jose State finished first with a 6-0 league record, while Boise State finished a half-game back at 5-0. In the MWC Championship Game, the Spartans bested the Broncos by two touchdowns.
Normalcy returns in 2021, as the teams return to divisional play. At the preseason meetings the MWC Media voted their predicted order of finish for the season. Here is how it turned out:
Mountain West Conference Preseason Media Poll
Mountain Division
1st Pl
Overall
Boise St.
23
148
Wyoming
2
115
Air Force
104
Colorado St.
72
Utah St.
47
New Mexico
39
West Division
1st Pl
Overall
Nevada
19
141
San Jose St.
5
121
San Diego St.
96
Fresno St.
1
85
Hawaii
56
UNLV
26
Here is the PiRate Ratings Preview for the MWC
Boise State breaks in a new head coach, after Bryan Harsin left for Auburn. The Broncos return 16 starters including their starting quarterback and two excellent receivers. New coach Andy Avalos needs to get more consistency out of the Boise State offense. The defense is good enough to win games for the Broncos as long as the offense tops 30 points.
One of these years, Wyoming is going to put it all together and take the Mountain Division flag. Coach Craig Bohl has what looks like his best team since he arrived in Laramie, and this could be the year the Cowboys challenge for the division title. The Wyoming defense should challenge for the league lead in points allowed and total yards allowed.
AIr Force led the MWC in scoring defense last year, while the option offense was off and on. When an option style team has a veteran quarterback, they usually perform a little better than the previous season. However, even though quarterback Haaziq Daniels returns to start, he will play behind an offensive line that must replace all five starters. The Falcon defense is going to need to come out with a lot of stalled opponent drives if AFA is going to compete for the division flag.
Colorado State has had a lot of turnover the last couple of seasons with three different head coaches. Current coach and former Boston College head man Steve Addazio didn’t get much of a chance to coach in Fort Collins in his first year, going just 1-3. He has an experienced squad returning, but the Rams have a tough schedule. Competing for a winning record may be two seasons away at the least.
Utah State won just one time last year, a 14-point victory over New Mexico. Once considered an offensive firepower, the Aggies are anything but that these days. USU must break in a new quarterback, three new pass catchers, and a new running back, and the offense is going to struggle at times after averaging just 15.5 points per game last year. The defense was mediocre in 2020, and it could be weaker this year, so the Aggies are not likely to enjoy a winning season.
New Mexico lost their first five games but was competitive in four of those games last year. The Lobos ended the season with wins over Wyoming and Fresno State, and they return 14 starters. They are a good quarterback away from contending for a bowl game this year.
In the West Division, the Nevada Wolf Pack clearly begins the season as the team to beat for the championship. The Wolf Pack have the far and away best quarterback in the league and one of the top five in the nation in Carson Strong. Give Strong a highly competent receiving corps, and Nevada should ride their version of the Air Raid offense to more than 35 points per game this year. The good news for the Pack is their defense should be somewhat improved this year after surrendering just 23 points per game last year. Keep an eye on this team; they have two road games against Power Five conference opponents, and they play Boise State on the road. It would not be a shock if Nevada pulled off upsets in any or all of these games, assuming they count as upsets.
Nevada will have to compete with San Jose State and San Diego State for the West Division title, as both the Spartans and Aztecs are quite talented. San Jose State went undefeated in the regular season and topped Boise State in the MWC title game, but they fell to a hot Ball State team in the Arizona Bowl. The Spartans return their entire starting defense, while the offense returns the second best quarterback in the league in Nick Starkel, playing behind an offensive line that returns all five regulars. Other than a game at USC in September, the Spartans have a chance to win the rest. The November 6 game at Nevada might decide the division title.
San Diego State began to play defense in 2020 like the Aztecs were known for a decade ago, giving up 17.8 points per game and finishing third nationally in yards allowed at 283.5 per game. SDSU doesn’t have the experienced quarterback like the other two contenders, but the Aztec defense should be even stronger in 2021.
Fresno State had an off year at 3-3, and the Bulldogs concluded 2020 with a 49-39 loss to New Mexico. Things weren’t as bad as they appeared to be for this team. They suffered the most logistical nightmare of any team thanks to Covid. The program totally shut down for more than six months, and after beating Utah State on November 14, they prepared to play for three weeks only to find out late each week that their game had been cancelled. Additionally, after October’s home game win over Colorado State, they had to play their final four games on the road. Second year coach Kalen DeBoer welcomes back an experienced roster. DeBoer went 67-3 in his previous stint as a head coach at NAIA power Sioux Falls. Expect the Bulldogs to begin a trek back toward regular contention for the MWC championship. Having to play at Oregon and at UCLA in September and then making a trip to Hawaii in early October could task the roster a tad too much, but FSU could easily sneak into contention .
Hawaii cannot be discounted as a dark horse in the West Division race. Todd Graham guided the Rainbow Warriors to a 5-4 record that included a New Mexico Bowl win over Houston last year. The UH offense was consistent, but the defense was not. Expect a better defensive performance this year, and the offense should be strong once again. UH will be handicapped a bit this year having to play seven road games, while their home games will be played in a retrofitted practice field on campus, while waiting for Aloha Stadium to be rebuilt. The practice field will serve as the home field for the next three years.
UNLV wore the collar in 2020, going 0-6 in Coach Marcus Arroyo’s first season. The Rebels will be interesting to watch this year, even if the total level of talent isn’t ready to compete in the MWC. While 10 starters return to the weakest defense in the league, and a couple of players that missed 2020 will be back to make the defense stronger, the focus will be on the offense, namely at quarterback.
Tate Martell was the Gatorade National Player of the Year as a senior at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas. Martell took a circuitous route home after committing to multiple colleges and playing for both Ohio State and Miami of Florida. He has one year to show NFL scouts that he is worthy of being drafted. If he can live up to expectations, Martell could challenge Starkel as second best passer in the league. If not, UNLV could struggle to win a conference game this year.
Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the MWC
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Boise St.
103.9
103.3
104.3
103.9
Wyoming
97.7
98.4
99.5
98.5
Air Force
96.4
96.3
96.9
96.5
Colorado St.
88.8
88.8
89.3
89.0
Utah St.
85.6
86.6
85.2
85.8
New Mexico
85.8
86.2
85.2
85.7
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
San Jose St.
100.8
101.1
99.0
100.3
San Diego St.
100.6
99.9
100.2
100.2
Nevada
98.4
99.7
98.4
98.8
Fresno St.
93.7
95.7
96.7
95.3
Hawaii
94.8
94.1
94.7
94.6
U N L V
85.8
84.3
84.6
84.9
MWC Averages
94.4
94.5
94.5
94.5
The PiRate Ratings are designed only to predict the next game for each team and not to look forward past that game, but just for fun, here are our predictions for 2021.
MWC Mountain
Conf.
Overall
Boise St.
7-1
8-5
Wyoming
6-2
10-2
Air Force
4-4
7-5
New Mexico
3-5
6-6
Colorado St.
2-6
4-8
Utah St.
1-7
3-9
MWC West
Conf.
Overall
San Jose St.
6-2
10-3*
Nevada
6-2
8-4
San Diego St.
5-3
8-4
Hawaii
4-4
7-6
Fresno St.
3-5
5-7
UNLV
1-7
2-10
* San Jose St. wins MWC Championship Game
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Vermont is the heavy favorite to repeat as AEC Champions. The Catamounts will host every game they play in this tournament, and while Vermont’s two conference losses did come at home, it would be a major upset if another team represented the league in the NCAA Tournament. Vermont is certainly an upset-worthy double-digit seed in the Big Dance, while no other team in this league is talented enough to win anything other than a play-in game in Dayton.
Big South Tournament
Semifinals
Winner
Score
Loser
Score
Winthrop
78
Gardner-Webb
66
Hampton
86
Radford
78
With top seed Radford losing to Hampton, Winthrop now becomes host team for Sunday’s Big South Championship Game. The Eagles will host the surprise Hampton Pirates at 1:00 PM tomorrow in a game televised on ESPN.
Colonial Athletic Tournament
1st Round
March 7
Washington, D.C. (Entertainment & Sports Arena)
Team
Team
Time (ET)
TV
8 Drexel (13-18)
9 UNC Wilmington (10-21)
4:00 PM
FloHoops (Subscrip.)
7 Elon (11-20)
10 James Madison (9-20)
6:30 PM
FloHoops (Subscrip.)
Five CAA Teams finished with double-digit conference wins, and none of them play today, as they received byes to the quarterfinals. We don’t expect any of today’s combatants to be around by the semifinals.
The #’s 5 & 6 seeds in this tournament, Delaware and Northeastern, are the two dark horses that could create some havoc during the the next few days. Hofstra and William and Mary are the top two seeds, but neither is a shoo-in to make the conference championship game.
Missouri Valley Tournament (Arch Madness)
Quarterfinals
Winner
Score
Loser
Score
Drake
77
Northern Iowa
56
Bradley
64
Southern Illinois
59
Valparaiso
74
Loyola (Chi.)
73 ot
Missouri St.
78
Indiana St.
51
Missouri Valley Tournament (Arch Madness)
Semifinals
March 7
St. Louis (Enterprise Center)
Team
Team
Time (ET)
TV
4 Bradley (21-11)
8 Drake (20-13)
3:30 PM
CBSSN
6 Missouri St. (16-16)
7 Valparaiso (18-15)
6:00 PM
CBSSN
As we mentioned in our first preview of Arch Madness, this tournament has been won by a team coming from back in the pack as often as it has been won by the top seed. Well, after yesterday, you can kiss the top three seeds good bye! Northern Iowa, Loyola of Chicago, and Indiana State all went home, and we are left with a 4, 6, 7, and 8 seed. And, the 8-seeded Drake Bulldogs looked the most impressive by far in the quarterfinal shellacking of UNI.
Missouri State vastly played beneath the level of its talent in the regular season, so it would not be surprising to see the Bears playing for a spot in the NCAA Tournament tomorrow. MSU coach Dana Ford comes from the Gregg Marshall coaching tree, and his team plays a similar style, which tends to bring teams to their peak performance in March.
Mountain West Tournament
Semifinals
Winner
Score
Loser
Score
San Diego St.
81
Boise St.
68
Utah St.
89
Wyoming
82
Mountain West Tournament
Championship
March 7
Las Vegas (Thomas & Mack Center)
Team
Team
Time (ET)
TV
1 San Diego St. (30-1)
2 Utah St. (25-8)
5:30 PM
CBS
With the top two teams making it to the Championship Game, the league is now guaranteed to have two Dance tickets punched. Utah St. has now moved off the Bubble into the safe part of the projected field.
San Diego State started cold last night and trailed by 16 points before a barrage of three-pointers brought the Aztecs back and allowed them to tie the game at the half and then run away in the second half in a similar manner to their blowout of Iowa across town in a mid-season tournament in Vegas. A win today could secure a number one seed for SDSU, as they are locked in a fierce battle with Dayton for the fourth number one seed as of this moment.
Northeast Tournament
Quarterfinals
Winner
Score
Loser
Score
Robert Morris
59
St. Francis (NY)
58
St. Francis (PA)
87
Bryant
61
Sacred Heart
61
Mount St. Mary’s
59
Long Island
73
Fairleigh-Dickinson
72
Northeast Tournament
Semifinals
March 7
at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home
Visitor
Time (ET)
TV
2 St. Francis (PA) (21-9)
3 Sacred Heart (20-12)
12:00 PM
ESPN3
1 Robert Morris (18-14)
4 Long Island (15-17)
2:00 PM
ESPN3
Ohio Valley Tournament
Semifinals
Winner
Score
Loser
Score
Belmont
60
Eastern Kentucky
50
Murray St.
73
Austin Peay
61
Ohio Valley Tournament
Championship
March 7
Evansville, IN (Ford Center)
Team
Team
Time (ET)
TV
1 Belmont (25-7)
2 Murray St. (23-8)
8:00 PM
ESPN2
This tournament can almost schedule this game as part of its regular season package. Belmont and Murray State have met in the OVC Title Game numerous times since the Bruins entered the league. Last year, both teams made the NCAA Tournament and won their first games. Neither are as strong as they were last year, but that doesn’t mean that the winner of this game must be taken lightly in the Big Dance. The champion will receive a #14 or #15 seed in the field, and some #2 or 3 seed will be in for a real fight.
Southern Tournament
1st Round
Winner
Score
Loser
Score
VMI
96
Samford
78
Wofford
93
The Citadel
76
Southern Tournament
Quarterfinals
March 7
Asheville, NC (Harrah’s Cherokee Center)
Team
Team
Time ET
TV
1 East Tennessee St. (27-4)
9 VMI (9-23)
12:00 PM
ESPN+
4 Mercer (17-14)
5 Western Carolina (18-11)
2:30 PM
ESPN+
2 Furman (25-6)
7 Wofford (17-15)
6:00 PM
ESPN+
3 UNC Greensboro (23-8)
6 Chattanooga (19-12)
8:30 PM
ESPN+
East Tennessee coach Steve Forbes doesn’t let his troops rest on their laurels. When Northern Iowa was upset yesterday in the quarterfinal round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, you can bet he used this to make sure his team knew it better come ready to play against VMI today. The Keydets can score points in a hurry, and if ETSU comes out flat thinking they can walk over VMI like Sherman marched through Atlanta, the Bucs may find themselves in a big hole.
All four of these games are worth watching. Any of the remaining eight teams are strong enough and talented enough to win three games in the next three days. Even the lowest remaining seed, Wofford, can cut the nets, as they did last year.
If East Tennessee wins two games in this tournament and then loses to a Furman or UNC Greensboro, the Buccaneers could still receive an at-large bid, but it isn’t a sure thing. The chances that two SoCon teams get bids are rather slim, which makes this tournament so exciting with eight quality teams remaining. If you like contrasting styles of play, this is a tournament you want to watch even if you have no dog in the fight.
Summit Tournament
Quarterfinals
March 7 & 8
Sioux Falls, SD (Sanford Premier Center)
Home
Visitor
Time (ET)
TV
1 North Dakota St. (22-8)
8 Denver (7-23)
7:00 PM 3/7
ESPN+
4 Oral Roberts (16-13)
5 Omaha (16-15)
7:00 PM 3/8
ESPN+
2 South Dakota St. (22-9)
7 Purdue Fort Wayne (13-18)
9:30 PM 3/7
ESPN+
3 South Dakota (20-11)
6 North Dakota (13-17)
9:30 PM 3/8
ESPN+
Depending on which way you drive into the Denny Sanford Premier Center, you might think the building is a giant cylinder or you might think it is a long rectangular complex. Take it from somebody that was there and mistook the building for something else because he arrived on the back side of the arena rather than the front.
This year’s Summit League Tournament may have the same feeling. On the front side of the league, South Dakota State and North Dakota State look like potent teams destined to make the championship round. But, on the back side of the league, teams like Omaha and Oral Roberts might look like they belong in a different league, but when the front end and back end are brought together (the venue looks like a giant barge), the tournament takes on a different style with some potentially interesting games. Don’t put the top two seeds in the Championship Game bracket in pen.
Having no connection to Sioux Falls, South Dakota, let me highly endorse visiting this beautiful city. The Falls here are nothing like those in Niagara, but they are incredibly wonderful in their own way. There is a traquilizing effect to seeing multiple falls at the level of the falls as opposed to being well above in Niagara or in the Maid of the Mist in the water. While Niagara is a power plant of water flow, Sioux Falls has more peaceful water. Consider Sioux Falls in a future Summer Vacation when you plan a visit to Mount Rushmore.
Sun Belt Tournament
1st Round
March 7
at Higher Seed’s Home Court
Home
Visitor
Time (ET)
TV
8 Louisiana (13-18)
9 Arkansas St. (16-15)
12:00 PM
ESPN+
7 UT-Arlington (14-17)
10 Coastal Carolina (15-16)
3:00 PM
ESPN+
The Sun Belt Conference plays its tournament in a similar manner to the Ohio Valley and West Coast Conferences. The bottom four teams play in the first round with the two winners advancing to play the next two teams above them in the seed line. Then, the two winners in the second round advance to play the next two teams above them in the seed line. Meanwhile, the top two seeds receive byes to the Semifinal Round.
Unlike the OVC and WCC, the first three rounds are played on the home courts of the higher-seeded teams, so it really makes the regular season standings meaningful.
This format gives the top two seeds, Little Rock and South Alabama, huge advantages over the rest of the field, since they can plan to be in Le Vieux Carre while the other teams must earn their way to the Smoothie King Center.
In this tournament, the 3rd-seeded Texas State Bobcats are probably the best team, and they should make it to New Orleans to face 2nd-seed South Alabama. If they beat the Jaguars in the semifinal round, they stand a better than 50-50 chance of knocking off Little Rock if the Trojans knock of 4th-seed Georgia Southern or an upset winner in the prior rounds.
West Coast Tournament
2nd Round
Winner
Score
Loser
Score
San Francisco
82
Loyola Marymount
53
Pepperdine
84
Santa Clara
73
West Coast Tournament
Quarterfinals
March 7
Las Vegas (Orleans Arena)
Team
Team
Time (ET)
TV
4 Pacific (23-9)
5 San Francisco (21-11)
10:00 PM
ESPN2
3 Saint Mary’s (24-7)
6 Pepperdine (16-15)
12:30 AM
ESPN2
The two winners last night looked very impressive beating teams they were favored to beat. Now, the competition gets a little tougher, and tonight’s games should be tense and close. Gonzaga faces the winner of the Pacific-San Francisco game, while BYU faces the winner of the SMC-Pepperdine game. The remainder of this tournament is going to be uber interesting, and you should stay up late and catch all the action. Hopefully, the zebras won’t become too much of a factor like last night’s Pepperdine-Santa Clara game, when they whistled more technical fouls in a three-minute stretch than most conference tournaments have in the entire meet.
Don’t Forget–Spring Forward Tonight Before Bedtime–Turn up your clocks one hour for daylight savings time and realize you are “losing an hour of sleep.” I’ve heard about that thing called sleep; maybe some time, I will try it out.
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