The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 15, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday

September 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Tulane

Houston

7.1

6.3

4.7

 

Friday

September 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

La. Tech

Florida Int’l.

3.9

3.8

3.6

USC

Utah

-6.3

-3.8

-6.1

Boise St.

Air Force

10.8

9.0

10.4

 

Saturday

September 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida

Tennessee

16.0

13.6

16.9

Indiana

Connecticut

35.9

29.9

35.8

Rutgers

Boston College

-5.2

-5.0

-6.0

Syracuse

Western Mich.

6.2

6.6

5.8

Alabama

Southern Miss.

43.5

42.0

44.3

Iowa St.

UL-Monroe

22.3

21.8

21.9

Northwestern

Michigan St.

-3.7

-4.1

-5.0

Ole Miss

California

-2.4

-3.0

-4.6

Vanderbilt

LSU

-21.1

-19.5

-21.0

Wisconsin

Michigan

0.5

2.3

0.1

Massachusetts

Coastal Car.

-13.5

-12.2

-13.4

Ohio

Louisiana

3.7

2.4

5.6

Akron

Troy

-14.3

-14.3

-13.6

Buffalo

Temple

-15.1

-13.4

-15.5

Florida St.

Louisville

9.4

10.1

9.9

North Carolina

Appy St.

-0.4

2.1

1.6

Ohio St.

Miami (O)

40.6

40.8

40.9

Pittsburgh

Central Fla.

-3.1

-2.6

-4.9

TCU

SMU

4.3

8.2

3.9

Texas A&M

Auburn

5.0

5.3

4.6

Tulsa

Wyoming

0.0

-1.8

0.1

UAB

S. Alabama

12.0

10.4

13.6

BYU

Washington

-8.3

-7.7

-9.2

Kent St.

Bowling Green

11.4

11.5

11.7

Miami (Fla.)

Central Mich.

35.7

33.8

36.6

Mississippi St.

Kentucky

10.0

6.9

10.7

Missouri

South Carolina

5.7

4.7

6.0

Kansas

West Virginia

-5.7

-4.3

-5.5

New Mexico

New Mexico St.

6.4

7.5

6.1

N. Carolina St.

Ball St.

18.8

19.3

19.7

Virginia

Old Dominion

32.6

32.7

32.5

Rice

Baylor

-31.7

-30.5

-32.3

Stanford

Oregon

-8.2

-9.2

-9.5

Texas St.

Georgia St.

-0.5

-0.9

0.4

Clemson

Charlotte

48.5

44.4

48.8

Arkansas

San Jose St.

18.6

17.4

18.9

North Texas

UTSA

18.1

15.0

19.3

Texas

Oklahoma St.

5.1

4.5

5.3

Georgia

Notre Dame

9.3

9.6

9.7

Illinois

Nebraska

-6.4

-6.9

-7.0

UTEP

Nevada

-21.9

-18.1

-21.3

Arizona St.

Colorado

10.6

9.8

11.1

Colorado St.

Toledo

-9.1

-5.3

-10.4

San Diego St.

Utah St.

-5.4

-2.2

-6.9

Washington St.

UCLA

16.8

16.4

18.3

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Army

Morgan St.

41

Wake Forest

Elon

30

Eastern Michigan

Central Conn.

31

Florida Atlantic

Wagner

35

Liberty

Hampton

29

East Carolina

William & Mary

16

Arkansas St.

Southern Illinois

22

Fresno St.

Sacramento St.

30

Hawaii

Central Arkansas

20

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

135.9

132.3

137.0

135.0

2

Clemson

134.5

131.2

135.4

133.7

3

Ohio St.

128.7

127.1

129.2

128.3

4

Georgia

127.5

125.8

128.1

127.1

5

L S U

126.0

123.3

124.8

124.7

6

Oklahoma

122.3

121.4

122.2

122.0

7

Notre Dame

121.2

119.2

121.4

120.6

8

Michigan

119.6

117.5

119.9

119.0

9

Florida

119.9

117.1

119.1

118.7

10

Texas A&M

119.4

117.8

118.3

118.5

11

Wisconsin

117.1

116.8

117.0

117.0

12

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

13

Auburn

117.4

115.5

116.8

116.6

14

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

15

Michigan St.

116.1

115.6

116.3

116.0

16

Penn St.

116.4

115.3

116.0

115.9

17

Iowa

115.7

113.7

115.8

115.0

18

Missouri

114.9

112.3

115.0

114.1

19

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

20

Mississippi St.

115.0

110.7

114.4

113.4

21

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

22

Central Florida

112.1

111.3

113.5

112.3

23

Texas

112.3

112.3

112.2

112.3

24

Baylor

111.9

112.1

111.6

111.9

25

Kansas St.

111.8

111.5

111.8

111.7

26

South Carolina

112.2

110.6

112.0

111.6

27

Miami (Fla.)

110.4

109.5

111.5

110.5

28

Oklahoma St.

110.2

110.9

109.9

110.3

29

Iowa St.

110.2

110.4

109.9

110.2

30

Northwestern

109.9

109.0

108.8

109.2

31

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

32

Minnesota

109.4

108.7

108.0

108.7

33

Maryland

109.1

108.5

108.3

108.6

34

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

35

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

36

Kentucky

108.0

106.8

106.7

107.2

37

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

38

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

39

T C U

105.2

108.8

105.7

106.6

40

Utah St.

106.3

105.1

107.7

106.3

41

Indiana

107.3

105.4

106.0

106.2

42

Tennessee

106.8

106.5

105.2

106.2

43

Boise St.

106.1

105.4

106.4

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

105.6

105.7

45

Purdue

105.5

105.5

105.0

105.3

46

Texas Tech

105.6

105.8

104.6

105.3

47

Memphis

105.0

104.8

106.1

105.3

48

Duke

105.2

104.7

105.1

105.0

49

Syracuse

105.2

104.6

105.0

104.9

50

Cincinnati

105.1

103.5

105.2

104.6

51

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

52

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

53

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.3

104.4

104.3

54

Wake Forest

103.9

103.4

104.5

103.9

55

Virginia Tech

103.4

103.6

103.7

103.6

56

North Carolina

102.8

103.4

104.0

103.4

57

Temple

103.3

102.3

104.5

103.4

58

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

59

Vanderbilt

103.4

102.2

102.3

102.6

60

North Carolina St.

102.4

102.3

102.9

102.5

61

Florida St.

102.4

102.7

102.2

102.5

62

BYU

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.4

63

SMU

102.0

101.5

102.8

102.1

64

Western Michigan

102.0

100.9

102.2

101.7

65

Ole Miss

102.3

101.5

101.3

101.7

66

Army

101.5

101.6

101.1

101.4

67

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.9

100.6

68

Tulane

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

69

Fresno St.

100.0

100.6

100.7

100.4

70

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

71

Air Force

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.9

72

San Diego St.

97.9

99.8

97.8

98.5

73

Arkansas

98.3

99.2

97.7

98.4

74

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

75

Houston

96.1

97.3

98.9

97.4

76

Illinois

97.2

98.1

96.2

97.2

77

Ohio

96.6

95.6

97.9

96.7

78

Wyoming

95.4

97.6

96.0

96.3

79

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

80

Georgia Southern

96.4

95.7

95.8

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

82

Louisiana

95.9

96.2

95.3

95.8

83

Louisville

96.1

95.7

95.3

95.7

84

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

85

Georgia Tech

95.7

93.8

96.2

95.2

86

Southern Miss.

95.4

93.2

95.7

94.8

87

Troy

94.5

94.7

93.4

94.2

88

Marshall

93.4

92.9

94.6

93.6

89

Northern Illinois

93.7

92.6

93.8

93.4

90

North Texas

92.8

92.1

93.7

92.9

91

Tulsa

92.4

92.9

93.1

92.8

92

Toledo

92.1

92.3

93.2

92.5

93

Rutgers

92.3

92.3

91.9

92.2

94

Nevada

91.3

93.0

91.1

91.8

95

South Florida

91.0

92.0

91.3

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

97

Louisiana-Monroe

90.8

91.6

91.0

91.1

98

Eastern Michigan

90.7

91.1

91.4

91.1

99

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.7

91.0

90.9

100

Navy

89.8

92.8

89.6

90.8

101

Florida Atlantic

90.4

89.7

91.1

90.4

102

Middle Tennessee

90.4

89.5

90.5

90.1

103

Florida Int’l.

89.6

89.3

89.9

89.6

104

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.3

90.4

89.6

105

Liberty

88.5

89.7

88.9

89.0

106

Charlotte

88.1

88.8

88.6

88.5

107

Western Kentucky

86.3

87.0

87.6

86.9

108

U A B

85.7

87.4

86.3

86.5

109

Ball St.

86.6

86.0

86.1

86.2

110

Buffalo

85.8

86.4

86.5

86.2

111

Georgia St.

85.9

87.2

84.9

86.0

112

U N L V

84.9

87.0

84.9

85.6

113

Kent St.

85.3

85.2

85.6

85.4

114

Coastal Carolina

84.1

85.3

83.2

84.2

115

Texas St.

82.9

83.8

82.8

83.2

116

San Jose St.

82.8

84.8

81.9

83.2

117

New Mexico

82.2

85.5

81.4

83.1

118

East Carolina

82.2

84.3

81.7

82.7

119

Colorado St.

79.9

84.0

79.8

81.2

120

Rice

78.7

80.1

77.8

78.9

121

Central Michigan

77.8

78.7

77.9

78.1

122

Old Dominion

77.8

78.2

78.0

78.0

123

Akron

77.7

78.0

77.3

77.6

124

Texas-San Antonio

76.7

79.2

76.4

77.4

125

New Mexico St.

76.8

79.0

76.4

77.4

126

South Alabama

75.2

78.5

74.2

76.0

127

Bowling Green

75.9

75.7

75.9

75.9

128

Connecticut

74.4

78.5

73.2

75.4

129

U T E P

66.9

72.4

67.3

68.8

130

Massachusetts

68.1

70.6

67.3

68.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

112.1

111.3

113.5

112.3

0-0

3-0

Cincinnati

105.1

103.5

105.2

104.6

0-0

2-1

Temple

103.3

102.3

104.5

103.4

0-0

2-0

South Florida

91.0

92.0

91.3

91.4

0-0

1-2

East Carolina

82.2

84.3

81.7

82.7

0-1

1-2

Connecticut

74.4

78.5

73.2

75.4

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

105.0

104.8

106.1

105.3

0-0

3-0

SMU

102.0

101.5

102.8

102.1

0-0

3-0

Tulane

100.2

100.6

100.6

100.5

0-0

2-1

Houston

96.1

97.3

98.9

97.4

0-0

1-2

Tulsa

92.4

92.9

93.1

92.8

0-0

1-2

Navy

89.8

92.8

89.6

90.8

1-0

2-0

AAC Averages

96.1

96.8

96.7

96.6

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.5

131.2

135.4

133.7

2-0

3-0

Syracuse

105.2

104.6

105.0

104.9

0-1

1-2

Wake Forest

103.9

103.4

104.5

103.9

0-0

3-0

North Carolina St.

102.4

102.3

102.9

102.5

0-0

2-1

Florida St.

102.4

102.7

102.2

102.5

0-1

1-2

Boston College

100.5

100.3

100.9

100.6

1-0

2-1

Louisville

96.1

95.7

95.3

95.7

0-0

2-1

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

110.4

109.5

111.5

110.5

0-1

1-2

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

2-0

3-0

Pittsburgh

106.0

105.6

105.6

105.7

0-1

1-2

Duke

105.2

104.7

105.1

105.0

0-0

2-1

Virginia Tech

103.4

103.6

103.7

103.6

0-1

2-1

North Carolina

102.8

103.4

104.0

103.4

1-0

2-1

Georgia Tech

95.7

93.8

96.2

95.2

0-1

1-2

ACC Averages

105.5

105.0

105.8

105.5

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

122.3

121.4

122.2

122.0

0-0

3-0

Texas

112.3

112.3

112.2

112.3

0-0

2-1

Baylor

111.9

112.1

111.6

111.9

0-0

2-0

Kansas St.

111.8

111.5

111.8

111.7

0-0

3-0

Oklahoma St.

110.2

110.9

109.9

110.3

0-0

3-0

Iowa St.

110.2

110.4

109.9

110.2

0-0

1-1

T C U

105.2

108.8

105.7

106.6

0-0

2-0

Texas Tech

105.6

105.8

104.6

105.3

0-0

2-1

West Virginia

104.6

104.2

104.2

104.3

0-0

2-1

Kansas

95.9

96.9

95.7

96.2

0-0

2-1

Big 12 Averages

109.0

109.4

108.8

109.1

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

128.7

127.1

129.2

128.3

1-0

3-0

Michigan

119.6

117.5

119.9

119.0

0-0

2-0

Michigan St.

116.1

115.6

116.3

116.0

0-0

2-1

Penn St.

116.4

115.3

116.0

115.9

0-0

3-0

Maryland

109.1

108.5

108.3

108.6

0-0

2-1

Indiana

107.3

105.4

106.0

106.2

0-1

2-1

Rutgers

92.3

92.3

91.9

92.2

0-1

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

117.1

116.8

117.0

117.0

0-0

2-0

Iowa

115.7

113.7

115.8

115.0

1-0

3-0

Northwestern

109.9

109.0

108.8

109.2

0-0

1-1

Minnesota

109.4

108.7

108.0

108.7

0-0

3-0

Nebraska

106.7

108.0

106.3

107.0

0-0

2-1

Purdue

105.5

105.5

105.0

105.3

0-0

1-2

Illinois

97.2

98.1

96.2

97.2

0-0

2-1

Big Ten Averages

110.8

110.1

110.3

110.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.4

92.9

94.6

93.6

0-0

2-1

Florida Atlantic

90.4

89.7

91.1

90.4

0-0

1-2

Middle Tennessee

90.4

89.5

90.5

90.1

0-0

1-2

Florida Int’l.

89.6

89.3

89.9

89.6

0-1

1-2

Charlotte

88.1

88.8

88.6

88.5

0-0

2-1

Western Kentucky

86.3

87.0

87.6

86.9

1-0

1-2

Old Dominion

77.8

78.2

78.0

78.0

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

95.4

93.2

95.7

94.8

0-0

2-1

North Texas

92.8

92.1

93.7

92.9

0-0

1-2

Louisiana Tech

91.0

90.7

91.0

90.9

0-0

2-1

U A B

85.7

87.4

86.3

86.5

0-0

2-0

Rice

78.7

80.1

77.8

78.9

0-0

0-3

Texas-San Antonio

76.7

79.2

76.4

77.4

0-0

1-2

U T E P

66.9

72.4

67.3

68.8

0-0

1-1

CUSA Averages

85.9

86.5

86.3

86.2

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

121.2

119.2

121.4

120.6

x

2-0

BYU

102.3

102.4

102.5

102.4

x

2-1

Army

101.5

101.6

101.1

101.4

x

2-1

Liberty

88.5

89.7

88.9

89.0

x

1-2

New Mexico St.

76.8

79.0

76.4

77.4

x

0-3

Massachusetts

68.1

70.6

67.3

68.7

x

0-3

Indep. Averages

93.1

93.7

92.9

93.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.6

95.6

97.9

96.7

0-0

1-2

Miami (Ohio)

90.1

88.3

90.4

89.6

0-0

1-2

Buffalo

85.8

86.4

86.5

86.2

0-0

1-2

Kent St.

85.3

85.2

85.6

85.4

0-0

1-2

Akron

77.7

78.0

77.3

77.6

0-1

0-3

Bowling Green

75.9

75.7

75.9

75.9

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

102.0

100.9

102.2

101.7

0-0

2-1

Northern Illinois

93.7

92.6

93.8

93.4

0-0

1-2

Toledo

92.1

92.3

93.2

92.5

0-0

1-1

Eastern Michigan

90.7

91.1

91.4

91.1

0-0

2-1

Ball St.

86.6

86.0

86.1

86.2

0-0

1-2

Central Michigan

77.8

78.7

77.9

78.1

1-0

2-1

MAC Averages

87.9

87.6

88.2

87.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.3

105.1

107.7

106.3

0-0

1-1

Boise St.

106.1

105.4

106.4

106.0

0-0

3-0

Air Force

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.9

0-0

2-0

Wyoming

95.4

97.6

96.0

96.3

0-0

3-0

New Mexico

82.2

85.5

81.4

83.1

0-0

1-1

Colorado St.

79.9

84.0

79.8

81.2

0-0

1-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

100.0

100.6

100.7

100.4

0-0

0-2

San Diego St.

97.9

99.8

97.8

98.5

0-0

3-0

Hawaii

95.7

97.3

94.9

96.0

0-0

2-1

Nevada

91.3

93.0

91.1

91.8

0-0

2-1

U N L V

84.9

87.0

84.9

85.6

0-0

1-2

San Jose St.

82.8

84.8

81.9

83.2

0-0

1-1

MWC Averages

93.4

95.0

93.5

93.9

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.2

116.2

117.3

116.6

0-0

2-1

Washington

113.6

113.1

114.7

113.8

0-1

2-1

Washington St.

112.8

112.0

113.1

112.6

0-0

3-0

California

107.6

107.5

108.9

108.0

1-0

3-0

Stanford

105.0

104.0

104.8

104.6

0-1

1-2

Oregon St.

95.5

96.8

94.3

95.5

0-0

1-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-0

3-0

U S C

107.1

108.1

107.6

107.6

1-0

2-1

Arizona St.

107.0

106.2

107.6

107.0

0-0

3-0

Arizona

102.5

102.7

102.8

102.7

0-0

2-1

Colorado

99.5

99.4

99.6

99.5

0-0

2-1

U C L A

98.9

98.5

97.8

98.4

0-0

0-3

Pac-12 Averages

106.8

106.6

107.1

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.5

125.8

128.1

127.1

1-0

3-0

Florida

119.9

117.1

119.1

118.7

1-0

3-0

Missouri

114.9

112.3

115.0

114.1

0-0

2-1

South Carolina

112.2

110.6

112.0

111.6

0-1

1-2

Kentucky

108.0

106.8

106.7

107.2

0-1

2-1

Tennessee

106.8

106.5

105.2

106.2

0-0

1-2

Vanderbilt

103.4

102.2

102.3

102.6

0-1

0-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.9

132.3

137.0

135.0

1-0

3-0

L S U

126.0

123.3

124.8

124.7

0-0

3-0

Texas A&M

119.4

117.8

118.3

118.5

0-0

2-1

Auburn

117.4

115.5

116.8

116.6

0-0

3-0

Mississippi St.

115.0

110.7

114.4

113.4

0-0

2-1

Ole Miss

102.3

101.5

101.3

101.7

1-0

2-1

Arkansas

98.3

99.2

97.7

98.4

0-1

2-1

SEC Averages

114.8

113.0

114.2

114.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.2

103.3

104.4

104.3

0-0

2-0

Georgia Southern

96.4

95.7

95.8

96.0

0-0

1-2

Troy

94.5

94.7

93.4

94.2

0-0

1-1

Georgia St.

85.9

87.2

84.9

86.0

0-0

2-1

Coastal Carolina

84.1

85.3

83.2

84.2

0-0

2-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

95.9

96.2

95.3

95.8

0-0

2-1

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

0-0

1-2

Louisiana-Monroe

90.8

91.6

91.0

91.1

0-0

1-1

Texas St.

82.9

83.8

82.8

83.2

0-0

0-3

South Alabama

75.2

78.5

74.2

76.0

0-0

1-2

SBC Averages

90.2

90.8

89.6

90.2

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Once again this week, our fearless bowl projections show a lot of at-large teams needed to fill spots.  This week, the number is eight teams.  The Southeastern Conference is looking like an eight-bid league this year, and the league will most likely have 12 spots to fill.  With Alabama, Georgia, and LSU looking like teams that will play in New Year’s Six Bowls or Playoffs, and with Missouri not eligible for a bowl this year, there will probably be just five other bowl eligible teams in the premiere league in FBS Football.  Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky should become bowl eligible, but Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt don’t look like they have the strength to reach six wins.

The Big Ten might benefit by an extra bid if Indiana and Northwestern can get to 6-6.  Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue look like they could supply a little fodder for the other 11 teams to pick up conference wins and allow 11 to become bowl eligible, when only 10 teams will have guaranteed bowl spots.  It figures that if any Big Ten team remains with at-large bowl bids available, the Big Ten will be at the top of the at-large lists.

The Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt Conferences look like they will have extra bowl eligible teams this year, but at this point of the season, some of these teams may be bowl eligible but not get an invitations.

Here’s our look at the Bowls and Playoffs this week.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Houston

[UAB]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Western Michigan]

Troy

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

Fresno St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Toledo

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Northern Illinois

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

Arizona

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

North Texas

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Charlotte

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Virginia Tech

[Army]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina St.

Northwestern

Military

ACC

AAC

Pittsburgh

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Maryland

Texas

Big 12

SEC

TCU

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Arizona St.

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Iowa St.

[Hawaii]

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Kansas St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Central Florida

California

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Louisiana Tech

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Indiana]

Syracuse

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

LSU

Belk

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

Kentucky

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Miami (Fla.)

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

[Wyoming]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

San Diego St.

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Washington

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Florida

Iowa

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Texas A&M

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Georgia

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Cincinnati

[Duke]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Auburn

Michigan St.

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Ohio

Georgia Southern

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

 

 

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Alabama

Ohio St.

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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September 8, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 9, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:00 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday

September 13

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wake Forest (x)

North Carolina

2.0

0.5

0.8

Boston College

Kansas

15.2

13.8

16.4

Houston

Washington St.

-14.3

-12.3

-12.0

 

 

Saturday

September 14

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia

Arkansas St.

34.6

32.3

35.2

Mississippi St.

Kansas St.

9.4

4.9

9.1

West Virginia

North Carolina St.

2.9

2.5

1.5

Penn St.

Pittsburgh

12.8

12.2

13.3

Illinois

Eastern Michigan

12.5

13.4

11.0

Indiana

Ohio St.

-11.3

-11.3

-12.9

Temple

Maryland

-4.7

-5.5

-2.5

Cincinnati

Miami (O)

15.9

16.0

15.3

Colorado

Air Force

3.6

2.2

3.1

Ball St.

Florida Atlantic

-0.1

0.4

-0.9

Notre Dame

New Mexico

40.1

35.2

40.6

Central Michigan

Akron

-1.3

-0.7

-1.2

South Carolina

Alabama

-20.5

-18.1

-21.4

Central Florida

Stanford

8.7

8.7

10.1

BYU

USC

-2.0

-3.3

-2.7

UTSA

Army

-22.9

-20.5

-23.1

Tulsa

Oklahoma St.

-16.6

-16.6

-15.2

Minnesota

Georgia Southern

17.7

17.9

17.2

Northwestern

UNLV

29.5

26.3

28.5

South Alabama

Memphis

-24.9

-20.8

-27.0

Navy

East Carolina

5.3

6.1

5.2

Arkansas

Colorado St.

20.7

17.2

19.6

Michigan St.

Arizona St.

14.8

15.4

14.8

Louisville (n)

Western Kentucky

8.5

7.1

5.7

Iowa St.

Iowa

-4.0

-1.4

-3.9

California

North Texas

19.7

20.5

20.4

Bowling Green

Lousiana Tech

-8.2

-7.9

-7.8

Liberty

Buffalo

2.3

2.7

1.2

Charlotte

Massachusetts

19.4

17.0

20.3

Troy

Southern Miss.

2.8

6.0

1.6

Marshall

Ohio

-0.4

0.3

-0.7

Auburn

Kent St.

34.3

31.8

33.2

Kentucky

Florida

-8.8

-7.1

-9.0

Middle Tennessee

Duke

-9.5

-9.8

-9.1

SMU

Texas St.

19.2

17.4

19.7

Western Michigan

Georgia St.

12.5

9.5

13.5

Washington

Hawaii

19.1

16.4

20.6

Syracuse

Clemson

-24.9

-21.7

-25.6

Virginia

Florida St.

9.0

9.2

9.4

Purdue

TCU

11.0

7.1

10.4

UCLA

Oklahoma

16.1

-15.4

-16.7

New Mexico St.

San Diego St.

-18.4

-18.2

-18.7

Rice (n)

Texas

-32.9

-31.1

-33.2

Nebraska

Northern Illinois

13.3

16.0

12.5

Arizona

Texas Tech

-3.8

-4.0

-2.6

 

(x) The North Carolina vs. Wake Forest game does not count as an Atlantic Coast Conference Game.  It is a non-conference game and will have no effect on the conference standings.

(n) The Rice and Texas game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.  Even though Rice is in Houston, we expect more Texas fans at this game and thus have it listed as no home field advantage for Rice.

The Louisville and Western Kentucky game will be played at Nissan Stadium in Nashville and is a true neutral site game.

 

FBS vs. FCS

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Tennessee

Chattanooga

24

Virginia Tech

Furman

26

Georgia Tech

The Citadel

31

Coastal Carolina

Norfolk St.

27

Ole Miss

SE Louisiana

26

Miami (Fla.)

Bethune-Cookman

36

Oregon St.

Cal Poly

16

Utah

Idaho St.

35

Wyoming

Idaho

28

South Florida

South Carolina St.

23

Texas A&M

Lamar

39

Nevada

Weber St.

13

Florida Int’l.

New Hampshire

16

Toledo

Murray St.

27

LSU

Northwestern St.

50

Missouri

SE Missouri St.

34

Louisiana

Texas Southern

39

Tulane

Missouri St.

28

Boise St.

Portland St.

34

Oregon

Montana

29

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.4

110.5

112.7

111.5

0-0

2-0

Cincinnati

104.8

103.1

104.7

104.2

0-0

1-1

Temple

102.6

101.4

103.9

102.6

0-0

1-0

South Florida

90.7

91.7

91.0

91.1

0-0

0-2

East Carolina

84.9

87.0

84.6

85.5

0-0

1-1

Connecticut

74.2

78.3

73.0

75.2

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

103.8

103.3

104.9

104.0

0-0

2-0

SMU

100.8

100.1

101.4

100.8

0-0

2-0

Tulane

98.9

99.3

99.3

99.2

0-0

1-1

Houston

95.8

97.0

98.5

97.1

0-0

1-1

Tulsa

92.5

93.1

93.4

93.0

0-0

1-1

Navy

87.1

90.1

86.7

88.0

0-0

1-0

AAC Averages

95.6

96.2

96.2

96.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

133.8

130.2

134.5

132.9

1-0

2-0

Syracuse

105.9

105.6

105.9

105.8

0-0

1-1

Boston College

104.8

104.5

105.5

104.9

1-0

2-0

North Carolina St.

103.5

103.5

104.3

103.8

0-0

2-0

Wake Forest

103.6

102.9

103.9

103.5

0-0

2-0

Florida St.

102.9

103.2

102.7

103.0

0-0

1-1

Louisville

95.5

94.9

94.3

94.9

0-0

1-1

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

109.4

108.5

110.5

109.5

0-1

0-2

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

1-0

2-0

Pittsburgh

105.8

105.3

105.2

105.4

0-1

1-1

Virginia Tech

104.6

104.8

104.9

104.8

0-1

1-1

North Carolina

103.1

103.9

104.6

103.9

1-0

2-0

Duke

103.7

103.1

103.4

103.4

0-0

1-1

Georgia Tech

99.0

97.1

99.5

98.5

0-1

1-1

ACC Averages

106.0

105.5

106.3

105.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

120.4

119.4

120.1

120.0

0-0

2-0

Texas

112.1

111.9

111.8

111.9

0-0

1-1

Baylor

111.6

111.8

111.3

111.6

0-0

2-0

Iowa St.

110.2

110.6

110.1

110.3

0-0

1-0

Oklahoma St.

110.1

110.7

109.6

110.1

0-0

2-0

Kansas St.

110.1

110.0

109.9

110.0

0-0

2-0

Texas Tech

107.6

107.9

106.7

107.4

0-0

2-0

West Virginia

103.5

103.0

102.8

103.1

0-0

1-1

T C U

101.3

105.1

101.7

102.7

0-0

1-0

Kansas

92.6

93.7

92.1

92.8

0-0

1-1

Big 12 Averages

107.9

108.4

107.6

108.0

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

124.9

123.2

125.3

124.5

0-0

2-0

Michigan

119.3

117.2

119.6

118.7

0-0

2-0

Michigan St.

117.8

117.5

118.2

117.8

0-0

2-0

Penn St.

116.6

115.6

116.4

116.2

0-0

2-0

Indiana

110.6

108.8

109.4

109.6

0-0

2-0

Maryland

109.8

109.4

108.9

109.4

0-0

2-0

Rutgers

92.0

92.0

91.6

91.9

0-1

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

116.8

116.5

116.7

116.7

0-0

2-0

Iowa

115.2

113.0

115.1

114.4

1-0

2-0

Northwestern

110.9

109.9

109.9

110.2

0-0

0-1

Minnesota

110.5

109.9

109.3

109.9

0-0

2-0

Purdue

109.4

109.2

109.0

109.2

0-0

1-1

Nebraska

105.4

106.8

104.8

105.7

0-0

1-1

Illinois

98.7

99.8

97.8

98.8

0-0

2-0

Big Ten Averages

111.3

110.6

110.9

110.9

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.3

92.9

94.4

93.5

0-0

1-1

Middle Tennessee

91.6

90.8

91.9

91.4

0-0

1-1

Florida Int’l.

89.7

89.4

90.0

89.7

0-1

0-2

Florida Atlantic

89.8

88.9

90.3

89.7

0-0

0-2

Western Kentucky

86.9

87.8

88.6

87.7

1-0

1-1

Charlotte

86.8

87.2

87.1

87.0

0-0

1-1

Old Dominion

77.6

78.0

77.8

77.8

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.8

92.2

95.0

94.0

0-0

1-1

North Texas

91.7

90.9

92.4

91.7

0-0

1-1

Louisiana Tech

89.1

88.7

88.9

88.9

0-0

1-1

U A B

85.5

87.2

86.1

86.3

0-0

2-0

Rice

79.2

80.8

78.5

79.5

0-0

0-2

Texas-San Antonio

76.6

79.1

76.1

77.2

0-0

1-1

U T E P

66.7

72.2

67.1

68.6

0-0

1-1

CUSA Averages

85.7

86.2

86.0

85.9

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.4

118.6

120.4

119.8

x

1-0

BYU

102.2

102.1

102.2

102.2

x

1-1

Army

101.9

102.0

101.7

101.9

x

1-1

Liberty

86.9

88.0

86.9

87.2

x

0-2

New Mexico St.

76.9

79.1

76.5

77.5

x

0-2

Massachusetts

69.9

72.7

69.3

70.6

x

0-2

Indep. Averages

93.0

93.7

92.8

93.2

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.7

95.6

98.1

96.8

0-0

1-1

Miami (Ohio)

90.4

88.7

90.9

90.0

0-0

1-1

Buffalo

87.1

87.8

88.2

87.7

0-0

1-1

Kent St.

85.7

85.9

86.1

85.9

0-0

1-1

Akron

79.8

80.1

79.6

79.8

0-0

0-2

Bowling Green

77.8

77.7

78.0

77.9

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.2

96.8

98.3

97.8

0-0

1-1

Northern Illinois

95.0

93.8

95.3

94.7

0-0

1-1

Toledo

91.4

91.6

92.5

91.8

0-0

0-1

Eastern Michigan

89.2

89.4

89.8

89.5

0-0

1-1

Ball St.

87.2

86.8

86.9

87.0

0-0

1-1

Central Michigan

76.0

76.9

75.9

76.2

0-0

1-1

MAC Averages

87.9

87.6

88.3

87.9

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Utah St.

106.1

104.9

107.5

106.1

0-0

1-1

Boise St.

106.0

105.3

106.3

105.9

0-0

2-0

Air Force

97.9

99.2

98.7

98.6

0-0

1-0

Wyoming

96.4

98.6

97.0

97.3

0-0

2-0

New Mexico

83.3

86.4

82.7

84.2

0-0

1-0

Colorado St.

80.5

84.8

80.7

82.0

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.8

100.4

100.5

100.2

0-0

0-2

San Diego St.

97.8

99.7

97.7

98.4

0-0

2-0

Hawaii

97.1

99.0

96.5

97.5

0-0

2-0

Nevada

91.4

93.1

91.2

91.9

0-0

1-1

U N L V

84.4

86.6

84.3

85.1

0-0

1-1

San Jose St.

82.6

84.6

81.7

83.0

0-0

1-1

MWC Averages

93.6

95.2

93.7

94.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

116.1

116.1

117.2

116.5

0-0

1-1

Washington St.

113.1

112.3

113.5

113.0

0-0

2-0

Washington

112.2

111.4

113.1

112.2

0-1

1-1

California

108.4

108.4

109.9

108.9

1-0

2-0

Stanford

106.2

105.3

106.1

105.9

0-1

1-1

Oregon St.

94.8

96.1

93.6

94.8

0-0

0-2

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.5

114.8

116.7

116.0

0-0

2-0

U S C

107.2

108.4

107.9

107.9

1-0

2-0

Arizona St.

106.0

105.0

106.4

105.8

0-0

2-0

U C L A

101.3

101.0

100.4

100.9

0-0

0-2

Arizona

100.8

100.9

101.0

100.9

0-0

1-1

Colorado

100.1

99.9

100.3

100.1

0-0

2-0

Pac-12 Averages

106.9

106.6

107.2

106.9

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

125.4

123.4

125.8

124.9

1-0

2-0

Florida

120.2

117.3

119.2

118.9

0-0

2-0

Missouri

114.4

111.8

114.5

113.6

0-0

1-1

South Carolina

112.3

110.9

112.3

111.8

0-0

1-1

Kentucky

108.3

107.2

107.2

107.6

0-0

2-0

Tennessee

106.3

106.0

104.7

105.7

0-0

0-2

Vanderbilt

103.1

101.9

102.0

102.3

0-1

0-2

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.8

132.0

136.7

134.8

0-0

2-0

L S U

125.9

123.2

124.7

124.6

0-0

2-0

Texas A&M

118.8

117.2

117.7

117.9

0-0

1-1

Auburn

117.0

114.8

116.3

116.0

0-0

2-0

Mississippi St.

116.4

111.9

116.0

114.8

0-0

2-0

Ole Miss

102.8

102.0

101.8

102.2

1-0

1-1

Arkansas

98.2

98.9

97.3

98.2

0-1

1-1

SEC Averages

114.6

112.7

114.0

113.8

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.0

103.1

104.2

104.1

0-0

2-0

Georgia Southern

95.8

95.0

95.0

95.3

0-0

1-1

Troy

95.1

95.7

94.1

95.0

0-0

1-0

Georgia St.

88.7

90.3

87.8

88.9

0-0

2-0

Coastal Carolina

83.4

84.6

82.5

83.5

0-0

1-1

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

94.9

95.2

94.3

94.8

0-0

1-1

Arkansas St.

93.7

94.1

93.6

93.8

0-0

1-1

Louisiana-Monroe

90.6

91.4

90.8

90.9

0-0

1-1

Texas St.

84.1

85.2

84.2

84.5

0-0

0-2

South Alabama

76.4

80.0

75.4

77.3

0-0

1-1

SBC Averages

90.8

91.5

90.2

90.8

 

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.8

2

BTen

110.9

3

B12

108.0

4

P12

106.9

5

ACC

105.9

6

AAC

96.0

7

MWC

94.2

8

Ind

93.2

9

SUN

90.8

10

MAC

87.9

11

CUSA

85.9

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Central Florida

2

Utah St.

3

Boise St.

4

Cincinnati

5

Appalachian St.

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

This week’s bowl projections finds an uncanny nine bowl spots needing at-large teams.  With Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina struggling, and with Missouri ineligible for a bowl, the SEC could field just eight bowl eligible teams.  Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Florida could all be in a NY6 bowl, which means the SEC could fall five teams short fulfilling their bowl agreements.

 

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Marshall

Frisco

AAC

At-large

Houston

[Colorado]

Cure

AAC

SBC

Cincinnati

Arkansas St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Louisiana Tech

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Memphis

Ohio

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Northern Illinois

Louisiana

Las Vegas

MWC

Pac-12

Boise St.

USC

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

North Texas

Troy

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

[Buffalo]

Charlotte

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

Hawaii

SMU

Independence

ACC

SEC

Wake Forest

[Southern Miss.]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

Miami (Fla.)

Nebraska

Military

ACC

AAC

Syracuse

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Boston College

Maryland

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Mississippi St.

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Arizona St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Virginia

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Central Florida

Georgia

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

UAB

[Nevada]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington St.

Minnesota

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Western Michigan]

Virginia Tech

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Notre Dame

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

North Carolina

[Purdue]

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

North Carolina St.

Oregon

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

Kansas St.

[Army]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

UL-Monroe

Wyoming

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

TCU

California

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Michigan St.

Texas A&M

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Penn St.

Kentucky

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Wisconsin

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Baylor

LSU

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

[Georgia Southern]

[Liberty]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Auburn

Michigan

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Eastern Michigan

Utah St.

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Indiana

Fresno St.

Dollar General

MAC

SBC

Toledo

Appalachian St.

 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Alabama

Clemson

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Ohio St.

Oklahoma

 

 

Champsionship

Fiesta

Peach

Alabama

Ohio St.

 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Heat on a Seat and Hot Coaches

Look all over the Internet, and listen all over sports talk radio this week, and you will hear about college football coaches on the way to unemployment. In Knoxville, Tennessee, the talk isn’t if second year Volunteer coach Jeremy Pruitt will be ousted at the end of the season, it’s whether he can make it to November. Pruitt doesn’t have the talent on either side of the ball to compete, and he should get more time to turn things around on Rocky Top, but the fans might not allow this to happen.

Making things a little worse for Pruitt, former coach Urban Meyer made statements about how the Volunteers should be a top 10 program. Might Meyer be already campaigning for this job as insurance in the event that Clay Helton builds on his 2-0 start at USC and keeps his job?

Willie Taggart was about to join Pruitt at the very hottest of the seats, but his Florida State Seminoles survived an overtime scare to beat Louisiana-Monroe. Playing at Virginia may be a tough pill for Seminole fans to swallow. If Florida State loses this game, that will make the Seminoles 6-9 in Taggart’s year and a quarter in Tallahassee. FSU could be headed to their worst back-to-back records since Darrell Mudra went 4-18 in 1974 and 1975.

Chip Kelly’s UCLA offense looks weaker than the end of the Karl Dorrell era in Westwood. Will the Bruin fans allow another year of this if UCLA falls to 6th in the South Division? Neither Cincinnati nor San Diego State are juggernauts, as the Bearcats fell 42-0 to Ohio State, while San Diego State had narrowly edged Weber State the week prior.

There three coaches appear to have the hottest seats in college football, but what about the opposite end of the equation? Which coaches are the hottest commodities at this point of the season? Who might be a head coach in 2020 at a bigger program than where he is now?

I have broken this down into four categories. The lowest on the food chain are the handful of FCS head coaches that might move up. The past record is so-so when a champion FCS coach moves to FBS. For every Jim Tressel and Bobby Bowden, you have coaches that totally flamed out when moving up. Wyoming is hoping that Craig Bohl proves to be a better hire than Joe Glenn. Glenn was the hottest FCS coach when the Cowboys hired him away from Montana following a 39-6 three-year record. Glenn went 30-41 in Laramie. Bohl came from North Dakota State, where he won three consecutive FCS Championships, and so far he is 30-35 at Wyoming, but 24-17 in his last three years and two games.

Second on the list are the coordinators at some successful FBS programs. Some of the best college head coaches ascended to their jobs from coordinator positions. Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, Ryan Day at Ohio State, and Kirby Smart at Georgia were coordinators at big time programs before becoming head coaches.

Third on the list are current head coaches at FBS schools in line to move to a bigger and better program. These can be both Group of 5 and Power 5 coaches.
Finally, there are some (one) currently out of coaching coaches. This person may be working for Fox Sports today. He claims he has retired, but until he is out of the game for a few years, nobody believes this.

Here’s the PiRate 2-deep of coaches. These 22 could improve a downtrodden program.

Category 1: Current FCS Head Coaches

Many of the top FCS teams in 2019 have first or second year coaches, because their program has produced new hires elsewhere. In addition, some of the remaining great FCS coaches are at a point in their careers where they are not going to have a chance to be hired at the FBS level, or they have previously failed as an FBS coach.
There are three prime coaches in this level that the PiRate Ratings believes can move to FBS and succeed.

1.Jay Hill, Weber State: Hill is 44 years old and has many coaching years left in his career. He’s spent most of his career in the State of Utah, having been an assistant with the Utes. At Weber State, he’s made the playoffs three years in a row, and his Wildcats have won consecutive Big Sky Conference titles. If a Group of 5 job opens out west, like New Mexico or UTEP, Hill could be in line to get a FBS job.

2. Brian Bohananon, Kennesaw St.: At 48, Bohannon is nearing the time where he will have to make the move up to FBS or be content to remain in FCS football. He won immediately after building this program up from scratch, and KSU almost won at Kent State this past weekend. The one possible issue is that Bohannon is a triple option style coach coming from the Paul Johnson coaching tree. KSU averaged more than 350 yards per game on the ground last year, and the service academies and Georgia Tech proved you can win at the FBS level with this offense. Will fans of a school concur?

3. Bob Surace, Princeton: Are you looking for another Urban Meyer in the making? Surace’s Princeton teams have been big-time spread offense powerhouses. The Tigers could run for 300 and pass for 200 yards a game, and that’s a hard task to stop. Princeton went 10-0 last year, beating 9-1 Dartmouth in the top Ivy League game in 30+ years. At 51, 2020 is probably the end of the line for getting a job at an FBS school. He could be in line for an AAC or MAC job if one became available.

Category 2: Current FBS Coordinators

This list is usually the longest of the categories, but this year it is number two. There are a handful of coordinators that appear to be on the radar to move up to the head position.

4. Bob Shoop, Mississippi State DC: Age may hamper his efforts to land a head coaching job, as he’s 53 and would be 54 in 2020. He was head coach at Columbia for three years and only went 7-23, but Columbia has been the bottom feeder of the Ivy League for almost 60 years. Winning in any sport in upper Manhattan is nearly impossible. Shoop should be judged on his excellent defensive work with Boston College, Vanderbilt, Penn State, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. State led the SEC in scoring and led the nation in total defense last year and finished second in the nation in scoring defense. With LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Kentucky on the schedule, that’s quite a feat.

5. Chris Long, Notre Dame OC: Long produced big numbers in his one year as OC at Memphis before coming to South Bend to run the Irish offense. In 2017, he helped the Irish offense roll up more than 440 total yards and 34 points per game with dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush. Last year, the Irish made the playoffs with pro-style QB Ian Book guiding the team to 31 points and 440 yards of offense. Notre Dame has a history of moving coordinators to head coaching hires at other schools, but it’s been a mixed bag at best. You may not know the name John Ray. He may have had the brightest star of any past Irish coordinator, after his defense led Notre Dame to the 1966 national championship while giving up less than four points per game. He was hired to turn Kentucky back into a big time football program and in four years, Ray went 10-33 in Lexington and 4-24 in the SEC. Giving up 58 points to a mediocre Indiana team in his debut set the stage for four years of despair at Stoll Field. Long is just 36 years old, so he’s got additional time to prove himself.

6. Alex Grinch, Oklahoma DC: Grinch is in his first year at Oklahoma after spending time as Urban Meyer’s DC at Ohio State. If Oklahoma shows any improvement defensively this year, the Sooners are a threat to win it all, and Grinch would become a hero ready to take over a team of his own.

7. Dave Aranda, LSU DC: Prior to this year, LSU had to rely on stingy defense and conservative offense to win games. Coach Ed Orgeron has opened up the offense in 2019, and quarterback Joe Burrow is slinging the ball all over the yard. This has led to a great 2-0 start for the Tigers, but it means that Arranda’s defense must play extra snaps. There were some incredible and some not so incredible results against Texas, and there will probably be some issues stopping top notch offenses remaining on the schedule, but LSU has the talent and coaching to compete with Alabama and Georgia for the SEC Championship. If Arranda’s defense produces a “Chinese Bandits” year in Baton Rouge, look for another school to come calling to make him the head coach.

8. Brent Venables, Clemson DC: Where not going to kid you about this; Venables is number one with a bullet among this category. If Clemson should run the table again this year, Trevor Lawrence and the offense will get most of the credit. However, Clemson finished number one nationally last year in scoring defense and number five in total defense. The Tigers had to reload on the stop side of the ball, as that incredible front four of 2018 closed up their college careers. In two games into the new season, Clemson has given up just 12 points per game. Before coming to Clemson, Venables ran the defense at Oklahoma, and defense slowly disappeared in Norman after he left.

 

Category 3: Current FBS Head Coaches at Power 5 Schools

9. Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia: Virginia had fallen on hard times with seven losing season in eight years under former coaches Al Groh and Mike London. After a rough first year in Charlottesville, Mendenhall began to produce magic like he did at BYU. Bryce Perkins may be the best QB in the ACC not named Lawrence, and Virginia is the current favorite to win the Coastal Division title. Mendenhall is 53 and maybe on the upper limits of his being able to move to another school, but if his alma mater comes knocking, he could take the Oregon State job.

10. Matt Rhule, Baylor: Baylor was in dire straits following all the damage done by former coach Art Briles. The Bears had moved into the top 10 on an annual basis before the bottom fell out in the wake of a sexual assault scandal. After a 1-11 debut in Waco, Rhule turned things around and guided Baylor to a 7-6 season and Texas Bowl win last year. His team is 2-0 to start this season, and they Bears are now a strong contender for the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Rhule turned the program around at Temple before coming to Baylor, and he was 20-7 in his final two years in Philadelphia, including a win over Penn State. Rhule could be the answer at a bigger Power 5 school. Or, he could take Baylor back to where it was at the beginning of this decade.

11. Matt Campbell, Iowa St.: Campbell’s name has been rumored at USC, and it was rumored at Ohio State, but he’s more likely to stay at Iowa State until a top 10 program comes along and seeks his services. Even if the USC job should become available, his name might not be “sexy” enough for the Socal fanatics. Campbell has done an incredible job in Ames, even beating Oklahoma in Norman. His Cyclones have a big game this week in the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy game with rival Iowa. If ISU wins this one, they must be considered a top contender along with Baylor for the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Add a 35-15 record with two divisional titles at Toledo, and Campbell’s resume is as good as any other potential candidate for a top 5 program.

12. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: It was expected that Kentucky would struggle to win six games and return to a bowl in 2019, after the Wildcats had their best year in 41 seasons in 2018. With the loss of the best player in college football, as well as their only sure offensive weapon, the Wildcats figured to struggle and have a difficult time staying out of the SEC East cellar. But, after two games, this Kentucky team looks as strong as last year’s edition, and with issues at Tennessee, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, UK could find itself in the race for the number two spot in the division with Florida and Missouri. If Stoops guides the ‘Cats to another 10-win season, a giant may throw enough money to get him to move on. It worked rather well for two past coaches that succeeded in Lexington. Bear Bryant won national championships at Alabama, while Blanton Collier won an NFL Championship with the Cleveland Browns.

Category 4: Current Head Coaches at Group of 5 FBS Schools

13. Luke Fickell, Cincinnati: The Bearcats might be the only team in the AAC East that can give Central Florida a scare, and UC has produced past head coaches that went elsewhere and won, like Mark Dantonio and Brian Kelly. Sid Gillman was once the Cinti head coach before making a name for himself in the American Football League with the Chargers. On the other hand, Butch Jones did not fare well at Tennessee after leading this school, and the father of the triple option, Homer Rice, never won again after leaving UC for Rice and then coming back to coach the Bengals for two years. Fickell might get a chance to coach in the Big Ten down the road if he can put together a few more seasons like 2018.

14. Josh Heupel, Central Florida: Heupel replaced Scott Frost in Orlando, and the Golden Knights have continued to win using a totally different style of play. If Heupel can run the table at UCF this year and then beat a big program in the Cotton Bowl, he could be in line for a job at a Power 5 school. If for some reason Lincoln Riley takes an NFL job as has been hinted, Heupel could easily be the man his alma mater looks for as the replacement.

15. Mike Norvell, Memphis: Norvell has done more than maintain the success that Justin Fuente had at Memphis. He’s come extremely close to winning the AAC Championship. His Memphis teams have been Central Florida’s number one nemesis, and UCF had to rally twice last year to beat the Tigers as it did in the 2017 AAC Championship Game. Norvell has experience as an assistant in the Pac-12, and if a Pac-12 job other than USC became available at the end of the year, he’d have to be a contender.

16. Willie Fritz, Tulane: Fritz has been a winner at every stop along the way in his career. He guided Tulane to a bowl win last year, the first time the Green Wave had won a bowl in 16 years. He won 18 games in two years at Georgia Southern including the Eagles’ first ever bowl win before coming to New Orleans, and prior to that, he went 40-15 at Sam Houston and 97-47 at Central Missouri. He’s the second oldest candidate on this list at 59, so he’d be quite a stretch for a Power 5 school to hire. He might be more suited to a place like one of the service academies if a job opens, as his offensive style includes a lot of the option game.

17. Jeff Monken, Army: If you like Fritz, then you must love Monken. Monken was the option guru at Georgia Southern prior to Fritz, when the Eagles were still in the FCS. He went 38-16 at GSU, which included playoff appearances in the three years that they were eligible before transitioning to FBS. Monken turned Army around quickly, and his triple option offense and tough defense could work in the FBS, just like it did for his mentor Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. A school like Vanderbilt might succeed with this strategy if the Commodores have an opening. Or, Monken could get a financial promotion to coach at a Group of 5 school in a conference, where he would have a chance to compete for a New Year’s Six Bowl. UTEP or Connecticut might be willing to take a chance.

18. Seth Littrell, North Texas: Now, let’s go to the other end of the spectrum. Littrell is an Air Raid coach, and he’s going to be missing the pilot of his offense when Mason Fine graduates at the end of this school year. North Texas has been quite entertaining to watch in Littrell’s time in Denton. While the OC at North Carolina, he tutored Mitch Trubisky and left Chapel Hill for this job following an 11-3 season that has not been matched since he moved on. A school like Illinois or Rutgers might be interested in him if they have to hire a coach in 2020.

19. Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan: Winning at EMU is one of the toughest assignments an FBS coach can undertake. Between 1975 and 2013 (1975 was their first as D1), EMU made it to one bowl game. Between 1990 and 2013, EMU had one winning season. Since Creighton came to Ypsilanti, the Eagles have had two winning seasons and two bowl appearances in the last three years. Creighton had to earn his way to FBS Football. He began at NAIA Ottawa College and then moved to D3 Wabash. He won 6 championships in 11 years below the D1 level. He took over at FCS Drake in 2008 and took the Bulldogs to a 41-22 record in six years there. This man can re-tool a program from the bottom up and should get a chance to coach at an FBS school. He’s 50, so his time is now. If EMU gets to another bowl this year, some school will most likely offer him a substantial raise. He’s a natural for a Big Ten or Big 12 job.

20. Jason Candle, Toledo: The MAC always has future Power 5 coaches roaming the sidelines, and Candle must be considered a prime suspect to make that move up, just like his predecessor, Campbell. At 39, he’s still got something to prove at Toledo, but the Rockets are always fun to watch, and this could attract schools that are having issues selling tickets.

21. Craig Bohl, Wyoming: Bohl is 24-17 in his last three years and two games in Laramie. He was 104-32 in 11 years at North Dakota State, which ended with three FCS National Championships in a row. His number one issue is the same as Fritz’s; he’s 61 and most likely won’t be approached by a major program. Still, he could be a short-time answer at a Big 12 or Pac-12 school, and Bill Snyder showed you can coach well into your 70’s. He could easily finish his career with 10 years of service.

22. Nick Rolovich, Hawaii: It might be hard to convince a coach to leave the Elysian Fields to coach on the more stressful Mainland. Rolovich has returned Hawaii to the status it enjoyed June Jones. Jones left Hawaii for SMU, and it may or may not have been the right move. Rolovich has little experience with any big time coaches that you could call mentors. He was an assistant for one year under Chris Ault at Nevada plus three years under Brian Polian. So, his name is not going to win any press conferences. Look at Hawaii’s stats under Rolovich. Some school might like 400 passing yards and 38 points per game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September 3, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 3, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:13 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday

September 6

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Rice

Wake Forest

-21.7

-19.5

-22.2

Boise St.

Marshall

16.3

16.3

16.0

Saturday

September 7

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Pittsburgh

Ohio

13.7

14.6

11.6

Virginia Tech

Old Dominion

35.6

35.7

36.2

Akron

UAB

-1.6

-3.5

-2.3

Michigan

Army

21.5

19.6

22.1

Purdue

Vanderbilt

6.9

8.1

7.2

Iowa

Rutgers

25.8

23.0

25.7

Maryland

Syracuse

-4.9

-5.0

-6.2

Missouri

West Virginia

9.6

6.9

10.0

Ohio St.

Cincinnati

16.5

16.2

16.6

Kansas St.

Bowling Green

30.1

30.0

29.4

Utah

Northern Illinois

25.1

24.8

25.4

Georgia Tech

South Florida

12.7

10.1

13.5

Colorado

Nebraska

-2.7

-4.9

-2.3

Clemson

Texas A&M

18.2

15.5

20.4

Wisconsin

Central Michigan

39.1

37.5

38.7

Appalachian St.

Charlotte

21.3

18.5

19.9

Mississippi St.

Southern Miss.

23.8

21.5

23.0

Connecticut

Illinois

-23.6

-20.2

-24.6

Baylor

UTSA

35.1

32.2

34.9

Alabama

New Mexico St.

60.8

53.3

61.9

UCLA

San Diego St.

14.5

12.0

14.0

Florida St.

Louisiana-Monroe

19.1

19.2

19.3

Texas St.

Wyoming

-9.9

-11.4

-11.0

SMU

North Texas

8.0

7.9

7.5

Tennessee

BYU

8.5

8.2

6.7

Florida Atlantic

Central Florida

-15.9

-15.7

-16.3

Florida Int’l.

Western Kentucky

8.8

7.9

7.8

Kansas

Coastal Carolina

16.7

16.8

17.5

Louisiana

Liberty

8.7

7.3

7.3

Michigan St.

Western Michigan

17.8

18.8

17.7

Texas

LSU

-11.2

-8.4

-10.6

Auburn

Tulane

21.5

18.5

20.3

Ole Miss

Arkansas

5.4

3.4

5.0

Oregon

Nevada

21.7

20.0

23.0

Penn St.

Buffalo

33.1

31.1

32.0

Kentucky

Eastern Michigan

22.3

20.8

20.4

Texas Tech

UTEP

44.3

38.6

42.9

North Carolina

Miami (Fla.)

-7.1

-4.4

-6.8

USC

Stanford

-2.4

0.0

-2.1

Washington

California

9.3

8.4

9.2

Fresno St.

Minnesota

-8.4

-7.2

-6.5

Hawaii

Oregon St.

6.7

7.5

7.7

San Jose St.

Tulsa

-4.3

-2.4

-6.2

UNLV

Arkansas St.

-1.5

0.9

-1.0

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Virginia

William & Mary

35.8

Arizona St.

Sacramento St.

33.7

South Carolina

Charleston Sou.

38.6

Memphis

Southern U

36.4

Kent St.

Kennesaw St.

-1.8

North Carolina St.

Western Carolina

41.0

Ball St.

Fordham

25.9

Miami (O)

Tennessee Tech

35.1

Massachusetts

Southern Illinois

4.6

Indiana

Eastern Illinois

32.1

Boston College

Richmond

35.0

Louisiana Tech

Grambling

26.4

Georgia

Murray St.

52.3

Colorado St.

Western Illinois

6.4

Washington St.

Northern Colorado

41.9

East Carolina

Gardner-Webb

24.1

Georgia Southern

Maine

10.2

Duke

North Carolina A&T

26.9

Georgia St.

Furman

7.0

Louisville

Eastern Kentucky

19.9

Oklahoma St.

McNeese St.

36.8

South Alabama

Jackson St.

24.4

Oklahoma

South Dakota

38.3

Middle Tennessee

Tennessee St.

25.9

Florida

UT-Martin

42.6

Utah St.

Stony Brook

27.5

Houston

Prairie View

28.6

Arizona

Northern Arizona

23.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Alabama

135.8

131.5

136.7

134.6

2

Clemson

134.0

130.3

135.0

133.1

3

Georgia

125.9

123.9

126.3

125.4

4

L S U

126.1

123.3

125.0

124.8

5

Ohio St.

121.6

119.8

121.8

121.1

6

Michigan

121.3

119.3

121.8

120.8

7

Notre Dame

120.2

118.4

120.2

119.6

8

Oklahoma

119.9

118.9

119.6

119.5

9

Florida

120.0

117.1

119.0

118.7

10

Texas A&M

118.6

117.1

117.2

117.7

11

Penn St.

117.0

115.9

116.9

116.6

12

Utah

116.8

115.2

117.2

116.4

13

Auburn

117.2

114.8

116.5

116.2

14

Michigan St.

115.9

115.6

116.1

115.9

15

Mississippi St.

116.5

111.8

116.0

114.8

16

Wisconsin

114.4

113.9

114.1

114.1

17

Iowa

115.0

112.5

114.7

114.0

18

Oregon

113.1

113.1

114.2

113.5

19

Washington

113.3

112.5

114.4

113.4

20

Washington St.

113.1

112.3

113.5

113.0

21

Syracuse

112.0

111.8

112.3

112.0

22

Texas

111.9

111.8

111.5

111.7

23

Missouri

112.5

109.6

112.4

111.5

24

South Carolina

111.0

109.6

111.0

110.5

25

Minnesota

111.0

110.4

109.8

110.4

26

Baylor

110.4

110.3

109.9

110.2

27

Iowa St.

110.0

110.4

109.9

110.1

28

Northwestern

110.7

109.7

109.7

110.0

29

Miami (Fla.)

110.0

108.7

111.2

110.0

30

Oklahoma St.

109.8

110.4

109.3

109.8

31

Central Florida

109.3

108.3

110.4

109.3

32

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

33

Stanford

109.3

108.2

109.4

109.0

34

Virginia Tech

107.7

108.0

108.2

108.0

35

Purdue

108.2

108.1

107.6

108.0

36

Texas Tech

108.0

108.1

107.1

107.7

37

Indiana

108.6

106.8

107.4

107.6

38

Kentucky

108.4

107.2

107.2

107.6

39

Kansas St.

107.7

107.5

107.3

107.5

40

California

107.0

107.0

108.3

107.4

41

Arizona St.

107.3

106.3

107.7

107.1

42

Cincinnati

107.6

106.0

107.7

107.1

43

Tennessee

107.1

106.9

105.5

106.5

44

Boise St.

106.5

105.9

107.0

106.5

45

Nebraska

105.6

107.3

105.2

106.0

46

U C L A

106.0

105.6

105.3

105.7

47

West Virginia

105.9

105.7

105.4

105.6

48

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.6

105.2

105.6

49

Utah St.

105.4

104.2

106.8

105.4

50

Boston College

104.9

104.6

105.6

105.0

51

Florida St.

104.4

104.8

104.4

104.6

52

Appalachian St.

105.5

103.4

104.6

104.5

53

U S C

103.8

105.2

104.3

104.5

54

Memphis

104.0

103.5

105.1

104.2

55

Vanderbilt

104.3

103.0

103.4

103.6

56

North Carolina St.

103.2

103.2

104.0

103.5

57

Maryland

104.0

103.5

102.8

103.4

58

Wake Forest

103.6

102.9

103.7

103.4

59

Duke

103.5

102.9

103.2

103.2

60

North Carolina

102.0

103.2

103.4

102.9

61

Army

102.8

102.7

102.6

102.7

62

T C U

101.1

104.9

101.5

102.5

63

Temple

102.4

101.2

103.7

102.4

64

BYU

101.6

101.7

101.8

101.7

65

Ole Miss

102.0

100.9

100.8

101.2

66

Arizona

100.8

100.9

101.0

100.9

67

Fresno St.

99.6

100.2

100.3

100.0

68

Illinois

99.9

100.8

99.3

100.0

69

Western Michigan

100.1

98.7

100.4

99.7

70

Colorado

99.9

99.4

99.9

99.7

71

SMU

99.5

98.7

99.9

99.4

72

Georgia Tech

99.6

97.6

100.3

99.2

73

Arkansas

99.0

100.0

98.3

99.1

74

Tulane

98.7

99.3

99.1

99.0

75

Air Force

97.7

99.0

98.5

98.4

76

Hawaii

97.3

99.3

96.9

97.8

77

Wyoming

96.7

99.1

97.6

97.8

78

Houston

96.0

97.2

98.7

97.3

79

Ohio

96.3

95.0

97.8

96.4

80

Georgia Southern

95.9

95.1

95.1

95.4

81

Kansas

95.0

96.2

94.7

95.3

82

Nevada

94.4

96.1

94.2

94.9

83

Louisville

95.5

94.9

94.3

94.9

84

Troy

94.9

95.5

93.9

94.8

85

San Diego St.

94.1

96.1

93.8

94.7

86

Oregon St.

94.6

95.8

93.2

94.5

87

Northern Illinois

94.7

93.4

94.8

94.3

88

Southern Miss.

94.7

92.3

95.0

94.0

89

Louisiana

93.8

93.9

92.9

93.5

90

Marshall

93.1

92.6

94.0

93.2

91

North Texas

93.0

92.3

93.9

93.1

92

Rutgers

92.2

92.5

92.0

92.2

93

Middle Tennessee

91.8

91.0

92.1

91.6

94

Tulsa

91.2

91.6

92.1

91.6

95

Toledo

91.2

91.4

92.3

91.6

96

Florida Atlantic

91.4

90.6

92.1

91.4

97

Florida Int’l.

91.2

91.0

91.7

91.3

98

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

99

South Florida

90.4

91.5

90.5

90.8

100

Miami (Ohio)

90.8

89.1

91.3

90.4

101

Louisiana Tech

90.6

90.2

90.4

90.4

102

Eastern Michigan

89.1

89.4

89.8

89.5

103

Louisiana-Monroe

89.1

89.8

89.1

89.3

104

Georgia St.

88.7

90.3

87.8

88.9

105

Liberty

88.1

89.6

88.6

88.7

106

Navy

86.9

89.9

86.5

87.8

107

U N L V

86.8

89.3

86.9

87.7

108

Buffalo

87.0

87.8

88.0

87.6

109

Ball St.

87.1

86.7

86.8

86.9

110

Charlotte

86.3

86.9

86.7

86.6

111

Western Kentucky

85.4

86.2

86.9

86.1

112

Kent St.

85.6

85.8

86.0

85.8

113

U A B

84.7

86.6

85.2

85.5

114

East Carolina

84.5

86.6

84.2

85.1

115

San Jose St.

83.9

86.1

83.0

84.3

116

Texas St.

83.8

84.7

83.6

84.0

117

New Mexico

83.1

86.2

82.5

84.0

118

Coastal Carolina

81.3

82.4

80.2

81.3

119

Colorado St.

79.5

83.8

79.7

81.0

120

Bowling Green

80.5

80.5

80.9

80.7

121

Akron

80.6

80.7

80.5

80.6

122

Rice

79.2

80.8

78.7

79.6

123

New Mexico St.

78.0

81.2

77.8

79.0

124

Central Michigan

78.3

79.4

78.4

78.7

125

Texas-San Antonio

77.8

80.6

77.5

78.6

126

South Alabama

76.4

80.0

75.4

77.3

127

Old Dominion

75.0

75.3

75.0

75.1

128

Massachusetts

73.7

76.8

73.3

74.6

129

Connecticut

73.3

77.6

71.8

74.2

130

U T E P

66.3

72.0

66.7

68.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

109.3

108.3

110.4

109.3

0-0

1-0

Cincinnati

107.6

106.0

107.7

107.1

0-0

1-0

Temple

102.4

101.2

103.7

102.4

0-0

1-0

South Florida

90.4

91.5

90.5

90.8

0-0

0-1

East Carolina

84.5

86.6

84.2

85.1

0-0

0-1

Connecticut

73.3

77.6

71.8

74.2

0-0

1-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

104.0

103.5

105.1

104.2

0-0

1-0

SMU

99.5

98.7

99.9

99.4

0-0

1-0

Tulane

98.7

99.3

99.1

99.0

0-0

1-0

Houston

96.0

97.2

98.7

97.3

0-0

0-1

Tulsa

91.2

91.6

92.1

91.6

0-0

0-1

Navy

86.9

89.9

86.5

87.8

0-0

1-0

AAC Averages

95.3

96.0

95.8

95.7

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

134.0

130.3

135.0

133.1

1-0

1-0

Syracuse

112.0

111.8

112.3

112.0

0-0

1-0

Boston College

104.9

104.6

105.6

105.0

1-0

1-0

Florida St.

104.4

104.8

104.4

104.6

0-0

0-1

North Carolina St.

103.2

103.2

104.0

103.5

0-0

1-0

Wake Forest

103.6

102.9

103.7

103.4

0-0

1-0

Louisville

95.5

94.9

94.3

94.9

0-0

0-1

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

110.0

108.7

111.2

110.0

0-0

0-1

Virginia

108.9

109.4

109.1

109.1

1-0

1-0

Virginia Tech

107.7

108.0

108.2

108.0

0-1

0-1

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.6

105.2

105.6

0-1

0-1

Duke

103.5

102.9

103.2

103.2

0-0

0-1

North Carolina

102.0

103.2

103.4

102.9

0-0

1-0

Georgia Tech

99.6

97.6

100.3

99.2

0-1

0-1

ACC Averages

106.8

106.3

107.1

106.7

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

119.9

118.9

119.6

119.5

0-0

1-0

Texas

111.9

111.8

111.5

111.7

0-0

1-0

Baylor

110.4

110.3

109.9

110.2

0-0

1-0

Iowa St.

110.0

110.4

109.9

110.1

0-0

1-0

Oklahoma St.

109.8

110.4

109.3

109.8

0-0

1-0

Texas Tech

108.0

108.1

107.1

107.7

0-0

1-0

Kansas St.

107.7

107.5

107.3

107.5

0-0

1-0

West Virginia

105.9

105.7

105.4

105.6

0-0

1-0

T C U

101.1

104.9

101.5

102.5

0-0

1-0

Kansas

95.0

96.2

94.7

95.3

0-0

1-0

Big 12 Averages

108.0

108.4

107.6

108.0

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

121.6

119.8

121.8

121.1

0-0

1-0

Michigan

121.3

119.3

121.8

120.8

0-0

1-0

Penn St.

117.0

115.9

116.9

116.6

0-0

1-0

Michigan St.

115.9

115.6

116.1

115.9

0-0

1-0

Indiana

108.6

106.8

107.4

107.6

0-0

1-0

Maryland

104.0

103.5

102.8

103.4

0-0

1-0

Rutgers

92.2

92.5

92.0

92.2

0-0

1-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

114.4

113.9

114.1

114.1

0-0

1-0

Iowa

115.0

112.5

114.7

114.0

0-0

1-0

Minnesota

111.0

110.4

109.8

110.4

0-0

1-0

Northwestern

110.7

109.7

109.7

110.0

0-0

0-1

Purdue

108.2

108.1

107.6

108.0

0-0

0-1

Nebraska

105.6

107.3

105.2

106.0

0-0

1-0

Illinois

99.9

100.8

99.3

100.0

0-0

1-0

Big Ten Averages

110.4

109.7

109.9

110.0

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Marshall

93.1

92.6

94.0

93.2

0-0

1-0

Middle Tennessee

91.8

91.0

92.1

91.6

0-0

0-1

Florida Atlantic

91.4

90.6

92.1

91.4

0-0

0-1

Florida Int’l.

91.2

91.0

91.7

91.3

0-0

0-1

Charlotte

86.3

86.9

86.7

86.6

0-0

1-0

Western Kentucky

85.4

86.2

86.9

86.1

0-0

0-1

Old Dominion

75.0

75.3

75.0

75.1

0-0

1-0

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

94.7

92.3

95.0

94.0

0-0

1-0

North Texas

93.0

92.3

93.9

93.1

0-0

1-0

Louisiana Tech

90.6

90.2

90.4

90.4

0-0

0-1

U A B

84.7

86.6

85.2

85.5

0-0

1-0

Rice

79.2

80.8

78.7

79.6

0-0

0-1

Texas-San Antonio

77.8

80.6

77.5

78.6

0-0

1-0

U T E P

66.3

72.0

66.7

68.3

0-0

1-0

CUSA Averages

85.7

86.3

86.1

86.1

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

120.2

118.4

120.2

119.6

x

1-0

BYU

101.4

101.2

101.4

101.3

x

0-1

Army

100.2

100.2

99.8

100.1

x

1-0

Liberty

88.0

89.3

88.3

88.5

x

0-1

New Mexico St.

76.6

79.3

76.2

77.3

x

0-1

Massachusetts

73.4

76.2

72.8

74.1

x

0-1

Indep. Averages

93.3

94.1

93.1

93.5

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Ohio

96.3

95.0

97.8

96.4

0-0

1-0

Miami (Ohio)

90.8

89.1

91.3

90.4

0-0

0-1

Buffalo

87.0

87.8

88.0

87.6

0-0

1-0

Kent St.

85.6

85.8

86.0

85.8

0-0

0-1

Bowling Green

80.5

80.5

80.9

80.7

0-0

1-0

Akron

80.6

80.7

80.5

80.6

0-0

0-1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

100.1

98.7

100.4

99.7

0-0

1-0

Northern Illinois

94.7

93.4

94.8

94.3

0-0

1-0

Toledo

91.2

91.4

92.3

91.6

0-0

0-1

Eastern Michigan

89.1

89.4

89.8

89.5

0-0

1-0

Ball St.

87.1

86.7

86.8

86.9

0-0

0-1

Central Michigan

78.3

79.4

78.4

78.7

0-0

1-0

MAC Averages

88.4

88.2

88.9

88.5

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.5

105.9

107.0

106.5

0-0

1-0

Utah St.

105.4

104.2

106.8

105.4

0-0

0-1

Air Force

97.7

99.0

98.5

98.4

0-0

1-0

Wyoming

96.7

99.1

97.6

97.8

0-0

1-0

New Mexico

83.1

86.2

82.5

84.0

0-0

1-0

Colorado St.

79.5

83.8

79.7

81.0

0-0

0-1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Fresno St.

99.6

100.2

100.3

100.0

0-0

0-1

Hawaii

97.3

99.3

96.9

97.8

0-0

1-0

Nevada

94.4

96.1

94.2

94.9

0-0

1-0

San Diego St.

94.1

96.1

93.8

94.7

0-0

1-0

U N L V

86.8

89.3

86.9

87.7

0-0

1-0

San Jose St.

83.9

86.1

83.0

84.3

0-0

1-0

MWC Averages

93.8

95.4

93.9

94.4

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

113.1

113.1

114.2

113.5

0-0

0-1

Washington

113.3

112.5

114.4

113.4

0-0

1-0

Washington St.

113.1

112.3

113.5

113.0

0-0

1-0

Stanford

109.3

108.2

109.4

109.0

0-0

1-0

California

107.0

107.0

108.3

107.4

0-0

1-0

Oregon St.

94.6

95.8

93.2

94.5

0-0

0-1

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

116.8

115.2

117.2

116.4

0-0

1-0

Arizona St.

107.3

106.3

107.7

107.1

0-0

1-0

U C L A

106.0

105.6

105.3

105.7

0-0

0-1

U S C

103.8

105.2

104.3

104.5

0-0

1-0

Arizona

100.8

100.9

101.0

100.9

0-0

0-1

Colorado

99.9

99.4

99.9

99.7

0-0

1-0

Pac-12 Averages

107.1

106.8

107.4

107.1

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

125.9

123.9

126.3

125.4

1-0

1-0

Florida

120.0

117.1

119.0

118.7

0-0

1-0

Missouri

112.5

109.6

112.4

111.5

0-0

0-1

South Carolina

111.0

109.6

111.0

110.5

0-0

0-1

Kentucky

108.4

107.2

107.2

107.6

0-0

1-0

Tennessee

107.1

106.9

105.5

106.5

0-0

0-1

Vanderbilt

104.3

103.0

103.4

103.6

0-1

0-1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Alabama

135.8

131.5

136.7

134.6

0-0

1-0

L S U

126.1

123.3

125.0

124.8

0-0

1-0

Texas A&M

118.6

117.1

117.2

117.7

0-0

1-0

Auburn

117.2

114.8

116.5

116.2

0-0

1-0

Mississippi St.

116.5

111.8

116.0

114.8

0-0

1-0

Ole Miss

102.0

100.9

100.8

101.2

0-0

0-1

Arkansas

99.0

100.0

98.3

99.1

0-0

1-0

SEC Averages

114.6

112.6

113.9

113.7

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

105.5

103.4

104.6

104.5

0-0

1-0

Georgia Southern

95.9

95.1

95.1

95.4

0-0

0-1

Troy

94.9

95.5

93.9

94.8

0-0

1-0

Georgia St.

88.7

90.3

87.8

88.9

0-0

1-0

Coastal Carolina

81.3

82.4

80.2

81.3

0-0

0-1

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

93.8

93.9

92.9

93.5

0-0

0-1

Arkansas St.

91.3

91.4

91.0

91.2

0-0

0-1

Louisiana-Monroe

89.1

89.8

89.1

89.3

0-0

1-0

Texas St.

83.8

84.7

83.6

84.0

0-0

0-1

South Alabama

76.4

80.0

75.4

77.3

0-0

0-1

SBC Averages

90.1

90.7

89.4

90.0

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

SEC

113.7

2

BTen

110.0

3

B12

108.0

4

P12

107.1

5

ACC

106.7

6

AAC

95.7

7

MWC

94.4

8

Ind

93.5

9

SUN

90.0

10

MAC

88.5

11

CUSA

86.1

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Central Florida

2

Cincinnati

3

Boise St.

4

Utah St.

5

Appalachian St.

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conf Conf Team Team
Bahamas MAC CUSA Northern Illinois Marshall
Frisco AAC At-large SMU [Miami (O)]
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati Louisiana-Monroe
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech Fresno St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Memphis Ohio
Camellia MAC SBC Western Michigan Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. California
New Orleans CUSA SBC #1 Florida Int’l. Georgia St.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA [Purdue] Southern Miss.
Hawaii BYU/MWC AAC Hawaii Houston
Independence ACC SEC Wake Forest [UAB]
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Maryland
Military ACC AAC Boston College Temple
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Syracuse Nebraska
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Mississippi St.
Holiday Pac-12 Big Ten Washington Iowa
Cheez-It Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Stanford
Camping World ACC Big 12 Virginia Baylor
Cotton At-large At-large Georgia Central Florida
First Responder CUSA Big 12 North Texas Kansas St.
Redbox Pac-12 Big Ten Arizona St. Minnesota
Music City SEC ACC [Indiana] Miami (Fla.)
Orange ACC BTen/SEC Notre Dame LSU
Belk ACC SEC North Carolina St. Arkansas
Sun ACC Pac-12 North Carolina Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC TCU Vanderbilt
Arizona SBC MWC Troy Utah St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Iowa St. Utah
Citrus SEC BTen/ACC Florida Michigan St.
Outback Big Ten SEC Penn St. Auburn
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Texas Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane [Army]
Taxslayer/Gator SEC Big Ten Kentucky Wisconsin
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Wyoming
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Northwestern Air Force
Dollar General MAC SBC Eastern Michigan Appalachian St.
 

 

FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta Top 4 Top 4 Clemson Ohio St.
Peach Top 4 Top 4 Alabama Oklahoma
 

 

Champsionship Fiesta Peach Clemson Alabama
 

 

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Woe To Us

One week into the season, panic has set in at a number of schools after unexpected losses or even unimpressive wins have sent the fans of certain schools into full-scale panic.

Worst of the lot is the University of Tennessee.  The Volunteers, 25-point favorites, lost at home to Georgia State in a game that Vols were clearly manhandled by the team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Eastern Division in 2019.

Calls have come from within a lot of the fan base for massive changes to be made just 13 games into Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s head coaching career.  There are even calls to rid Athletics Director Phil Fulmer of his duties as well.

Today, in our little old folks reminiscing feature, I will tell you that contrary to the current popular belief, that this loss in Knoxville is not the worst loss in modern day history.

Let’s set the Time Machine back to 1958.  Coach Bowden Wyatt led an archaic Tennessee Single Wing offense that as recently as 1956 had allowed the Big Orange to run the table in the regular season and finish 2nd nationally to champion Oklahoma.

The following year, Tennessee won eight games including the Gator Bowl.  Two of their three losses came to top 5 teams.

In 1958, the Vols stumbled coming out of the gate.  In a 2-4 start that produced little offense and strong defense, Coach Wyatt all of a sudden found himself in hot water.  Tennessee fans, spoiled under the long reign of General Robert Neyland, reacted to this 2-4 start like former New York Yankees manager George Steinbrenner used to react when his team won only 90 games and missed out on the American League Division title.

Game seven was one of those automatic wins against tiny in-state rival Chattanooga.  The Mocs at times in the 20th Century were classified as Major College, or the equivalent of today’s FBS.  However, in 1958, they were Small College, or the equivalent of FCS.

Chattanooga entered this game coming off a loss at Tennessee Tech, and nobody gave Coach Scrappy Moore’s team any hope playing the mighty Vols at Shield-Watkins Field.  When the game started, Chattanooga’s defense, led by future American Football League starter Charlie Long at linebacker (he was also a starting offensive guard and played that position with the Boston Patriots), had little problem stopping Tennessee’s balanced-line Single Wing offense.  Time and time again, Tennessee ran line bucks, off-tackle plays, sweeps, and traps, and the Mocs defense stopped the attack and forced punts.

Chattanooga’s offense was not a juggernaut, but on this day, the Mocs would garner two touchdown drives and led 14-0 with precious little time remaining.  The stadium began to lose its home fans rapidly, as the then 46,000 seat stadium had about 30,000 people in seats.  This was a good thing because of what would happen in a few minutes.

Tennessee mounted one final desperation drive with the forward pass, something Wyatt-coached Vols teams used infrequently.  Chattanooga played a loose defense, allowing the Vols to use up the rest of the clock but finally scoring points in the last few seconds of the game.  The extra point was blocked, and Chattanooga pulled off its greatest ever upset, beating Tennessee in Knoxville 14-6.

The Chattanooga fans, totally excited over their impossible feat, stormed the field and tore down the goalposts.  What happens next has been told to me in the past by older acquaintances that lived in Chattanooga and have passed on to their reward.  Here’s a composite of these stories told to me many years ago:

The Tennessee fans that remained until the end of the game took offense at the Chattanooga fans storming their field and tearing down their goalposts.  When about 100 Vols’ fans decided to let the mob rule, they began to attack the Mocs fans, and within a few seconds, this became a full-scale riot.

In what has been described to me to have resembled the streets of Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the Knoxville police had to bring their riot gear and paddy wagons to the campus.  Eventually, tear gas was lobbed onto the field to stop the violence that had gotten well out of control.  Many Chattanooga fans and a handful of Tennessee fans had been detained and carted off to vehicles to be transferred to jail.

Here’s the most outrageous part of this story.  The sheriff of Hamilton County (Chattanooga as the county seat) was at this game as a fan.  He rounded up a “posse” of Mocs to attempt to overpower the Knoxville police and emancipate the arrested Chattanooga fans.  The sheriff was then arrested by the Knoxville police.

Tennessee had two home games remaining in 1958, and the administration decided they would not purchase new goalposts.  Instead, they erected very cheap wooden goalposts, the type anybody could construct by going to Home Depot, Lowe’s, or Menard’s today.

Coach Wyatt was barbecued in the local newspapers.  The Knoxville Journal and the Knoxville News-Sentinel opposed each other in 1958 like Fox News and CNN oppose each other today.  Yet, the two papers were in agreement that something needed to be done.  At 2-5, Tennessee now faced a closing three games against a top-5 Ole Miss team that had lost only to eventual national champion LSU; a decent Kentucky team under future Cleveland Browns head coach Blanton Collier; and a Vanderbilt team that would lose only one game prior to the season-ending contest with the Vols.

Staring a potential 2-8 season in the face, there was no joy in “The Marble City.”  Tennessee football was to Knoxville on Saturdays what it is to Green Bay on Sundays.

With the makeshift goalposts, Tennessee entered their game with Ole Miss as double-digit underdogs at home.  Having done exhaustive research, this was a first at Shields-Watkins Field.  Rarely had the Vols been underdogs at home under Neyland, so being a double-digit underdog to the Rebels was a new low.

As unexpected as their loss was to Chattanooga the previous week, the Vols went the opposite way against Coach Johnny Vaught’s Rebels.  Ole Miss had just scored 56 points the previous week against Houston, and their defense was giving up less than six points per game.  Even LSU could muster only 14 points, so the Vols’ Single Wing offense looked to be in a huge bind, and it was conceivable that Tennessee would be lucky to even cross midfield.

Not only did Tennessee move the ball across midfield, they moved it up and down the field for most of the day, while their defense slowed a great Split-T attack and Ole Miss’s top back, Charlie Flowers, had trouble moving the ball for most of the day.  An 18-16 upset was as big as the upset loss to Chattanooga.

Ironically, the Vols’ fans stormed the field after this game and quickly made short work of the cheap, makeshift goalposts.  Tennessee had to erect another set of wooden goalposts for its final home game.  Also ironically, goalposts would not be needed in that final home game, as neither Tennessee nor Kentucky attempted an extra point that day.  The Vol offense returned to its inept depths and failed to produce points.  A safety by the defense prevented the goose egg from staying on the old scoreboard.  Kentucky scored a lone touchdown and missed a two-point conversion but won 6-2.  This guaranteed a losing season for the Vols.

The season ended with Tennessee visiting their in-state rival Vanderbilt in Nashville.  This Vanderbilt team was ranked number 15 and looking at a likely Sun, Gator, or Bluegrass Bowl bid with a win over the lowly Vols.  Vanderbilt entered this game without an SEC loss and only one overall, which came against a Clemson team that won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship and would face LSU in the Sugar Bowl.

After Coach Neyland came to Knoxville, Vanderbilt was rarely favored to beat their nemesis down the road on US Highway 70.  On this late November day, the Commodores were expected to win easily and give some of their second team players extra experience.

Once again, the Vols came out fired up and stopped Vanderbilt’s version of the Split-T and Wing-T offense.  The UT Single Wing offense was not potent by any means, but they moved the ball.  In 1958, few teams made more than two or three field goals in an entire season, and many did not make even one.  On this day, a field goal gave the Vols a surprising early lead, and Tennessee led 10-6 in the fourth quarter.  Two long Vanderbilt drives ended with turnovers, a fumble on the first and an interception on the second.  The Vol player (cannot remember his name) that recovered the fumble also picked off the pass, and Tennessee shocked Vandy at Dudley Field.  As a result, the Commodores were passed over for the bowl bids.  The Sun Bowl took Hardin-Simmons; the Bluegrass Bowl in Louisville took Florida State; and the Gator Bowl chose Florida and Ole Miss.

To all the Vols fans, as well as those that cheer for Tennessee to lose, let this be a warning to you.  The same can be said to Florida State, South Carolina, Missouri, UCLA, and Arizona fans this week.  Your team failed miserably in game one, but you never know what might happen in game two.  This going to the extremes, believing your team might be Playoff bound if they win their first game, and believing that the sky is falling if they lose their first game, is a ridiculous emotion.  It’s just the first game.  Teams have stunk in their first game and proceeded to win the national championship.  Not that this will happen in 2019, but the Seminoles, Gamecocks, Tigers, Bruins, Wildcats, and Vols fans still have reason to believe that this current low point will be replaced with multiple reversals of misfortune.

Week Two–Some Marquee Games

This will be a Saturday to make plans to watch a lot of football if you are a big college fan.

Noon, EDT

Michigan vs. Army–Fox Sports

This is the best early game.  The Wolverines had some trouble against Middle Tennessee in week one, while Army struggled with Rice.  This game may be lower scoring than first expected, but both teams did not show their entire playbooks last week.  I expect more offense and will look at the totals numbers for this game.  If Army can pull off the upset, the Black Knights can easily run the table for the regular season and possibly earn a spot in the Cotton Bowl.  Army is not eligible for the guaranteed Group of 5 New Year’s Bowl bid, as this goes to the highest-rated Group of 5 Conference Champion.  However, if the men from West Point beat Michigan and proceed to go 13-0 in the regular season, they could still be selected as an at-large team for the Cotton Bowl.

Of course, Michigan is a tough team to beat at The Big House, and Army does not wear scarlet and gray uniforms.

Purdue vs. Vanderbilt–Big Ten Network

This looks like a bowl eliminator game, even in week 2.  Purdue watched a 17-point lead disappear in Reno against Nevada.  Vanderbilt suffered against national contender Georgia and has injuries on its already thin offensive line.  The team that emerges 1-1 will still hold bowl hopes for 2019.  The loser has little path to six wins.

3:30 PM EDT

Clemson vs. Texas A&M–ABC

The Aggies gave the Tigers one of their two toughest battles last year in College Station, and Coach Jimbo Fisher certainly knows how to prepare for a game against his former rival when he coached at Florida State.  Having to go to Deaf Valley to place Trevor the Great may be asking the Aggies to do the impossible, but Clemson didn’t look like a super team against Georgia Tech last week, and Lawrence actually completed two passes to the wrong colored jersey.  This game might be quite interesting if the Aggies can contain the CU running game and make Clemson one dimensional.

7:30 PM EDT

Texas vs. LSU–ABC

This may be the overall best game of the week.  Texas looked just as strong if not stronger beating Louisiana Tech in week one as they looked like last year when they beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.  LSU looked like a team that Alabama fans need to worry about, as the new Tiger offense did things through the air that it had not done before, even in the Bert Jones days.  Joe Burrow added his name to Heisman Trophy contention after week one.  The winner of this game stays in Playoff contention.  The loser is already looking at top tier bowl but no Playoffs.

8:00 PM EDT

North Carolina vs. Miami–ACC Network

Kudos to Coach Mack Brown for showing the nation that old guys can still teach new tricks to the youngsters.  North Carolina can now become a co-favorite for the Coastal Division flag with a win over Miami in week two.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had an extra week to lick their wounds after falling to rival Florida in a game that Miami had a chance to win at the end.

10:30 PM EDT

Washington vs. California–FS1

After Oregon lost in the final nine seconds to Auburn, the Pac-12 was placed behind the 8-ball.  It is going to take a 12-0 team from the Pac-12 to make the Playoffs, so this game will see one team emerge as having accomplished what is mandatory for that to happen.  Washington quarterback Jacob Eason looked like a potential first team All Pac-12 player in game one, but then Eastern Washington’s defense is not the standard to judge excellence.

Cal had to come from behind to beat FCS rival UC Davis.  Having to go to Seattle for this game makes the Bears a solid underdog, but Coach Justin Wilcox is impressing us with his handling of the boys from Berkeley.  Expect this game to be closer than expected and most likely quite exciting.  Cal stopped the Huskies last year in a 12-10 win.

Stanford vs. USC–ESPN

When USC quarterback J.T. Daniels went down with a season-ending injury in the middle of the Fresno State game, you could just see Coach Clay Helton’s subconscious brain imagining the help-wanted ads in the Los Angeles Times.  With an incredibly difficult schedule and a mandate to win 8 or 9 games this year, how does Helton survive the season much less get through it to the end with a true freshman signal caller?

Helton and the Trojans may have a shot against the Cardinal, because Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello might not play after suffering a gruesome hit in what should have been called a targeting penalty against Northwestern.  Costello might be in the concussion protocol and unable to play in this game, and backup Davis Mills did not produce any points after entering the game for the second half.

The winner of this game will be an unconvincing 2-0 team, but the loser will be in dire straits at 1-1.  USC faces four consecutive games where they will be the underdog, while Stanford decided to play Central Florida and Notre Dame as two of its three non-conference games.  The Cardinal may not have five more wins on their schedule if they lose this game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 19, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:01 pm

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday August 24
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Florida (n) Miami (Fla.) 11.0 9.5 8.9
Hawaii Arizona -2.2 -0.3 -3.4
 

 

Thursday August 29
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Cincinnati UCLA 2.6 1.1 3.7
Tulane Florida Int’l. 4.4 5.4 3.7
Clemson Georgia Tech 36.7 34.0 36.7
Texas A&M Texas St. 36.5 33.7 34.9
Arizona St. Kent St. 26.4 24.6 26.8
BYU Utah -13.5 -11.5 -13.5
 

 

Friday August 30
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Army Rice 28.2 26.4 28.7
South Florida Wisconsin -12.1 -10.1 -10.9
Michigan St. Tulsa 27.1 26.4 26.2
Rutgers Massachusetts 21.2 18.1 21.2
Wake Forest Utah St. 1.3 2.0 0.0
Nevada Purdue -15.2 -13.4 -15.2
Colorado (n) Colorado St. 20.5 14.8 20.6
Oregon St. Oklahoma St. -11.9 -10.8 -12.3
 

 

Saturday August 31
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. East Carolina 18.9 16.1 19.5
Illinois Akron 16.5 17.3 15.4
Indiana (n) Ball St. 23.8 22.4 23.3
Nebraska South Alabama 35.9 33.8 36.8
Ohio St. Florida Atlantic 32.2 31.1 31.7
Kentucky Toledo 21.3 19.7 19.0
Memphis Ole Miss 3.1 3.7 5.6
Louisiana (n) Mississippi St. -25.0 -19.6 -25.8
North Carolina (n) South Carolina -14.3 -11.3 -12.7
Tennessee Georgia St. 30.8 29.0 30.3
Alabama (n) Duke 31.3 26.7 32.2
Coastal Carolina Eastern Michigan -5.2 -4.1 -7.1
Stanford Northwestern 0.3 0.1 1.5
Boston College Virginia Tech -1.5 -2.6 -1.6
Liberty Syracuse -21.3 -19.4 -21.0
Arkansas St. SMU -5.4 -4.3 -5.8
Florida St. (n) Boise St. 2.0 3.6 1.9
Vanderbilt Georgia -18.7 -17.8 -20.0
Auburn (n) Oregon 3.8 0.9 1.5
LSU Georgia Southern 28.0 25.3 27.3
Wyoming Missouri -18.5 -12.7 -17.7
Iowa Miami (O) 27.4 26.6 26.8
Michigan Middle Tennessee 35.2 33.8 35.8
Pittsburgh Virginia 3.4 2.4 2.7
Texas Louisiana Tech 23.4 23.5 22.5
Washington St. New Mexico St. 37.0 32.5 37.4
USC Fresno St. 7.2 8.0 6.8
 

 

Sunday/Monday September 1/2
Home Visitors PiRate Mean Bias
Oklahoma Houston 28.2 25.7 24.9
Louisville Notre Dame -23.8 -22.4 -25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home Visitor PiRate
San Jose St. Northern Colorado 14.5
Connecticut Wagner 12.6
Central Michigan Albany 9.8
Bowling Green Morgan St. 17.2
Buffalo Robert Morris 43.9
Charlotte Gardner-Webb 26.5
Western Kentucky Central Arkansas 11.9
Central Florida Florida A&M 45.5
UAB Alabama St. 45.5
Minnesota South Dakota St. 12.7
UNLV Southern Utah 17.3
Air Force Colgate 11.3
New Mexico Sam Houston St. 9.7
Maryland Howard 36.0
Iowa St. Northern Iowa 22.2
Kansas Indiana St. 13.8
West Virginia James Madison 18.5
Ohio U Rhode Island 27.6
Washington E. Washington 18.0
Temple Bucknell 44.2
Navy Holy Cross 24.4
Penn St. Idaho 40.5
Appalachian St. East Tennessee 36.3
Arkansas Portland St. 21.0
Texas Tech Montana St. 25.7
UTSA Incarnate Word 7.3
Troy Campbell 33.8
California UC-Davis 14.5
Marshall VMI 37.8
Old Dominion Norfolk St. 23.5
Southern Miss Alcorn St. 23.6
Kansas St. Nicholls 23.9
Baylor Stephen F Austin 37.3
Northern Illinois Illinois St. 7.3
Western Michigan Monmouth 20.5
North Texas Abilene Christian 19.4
UTEP Houston Baptist 15.2
TCU Ark. Pine Bluff 52.3
Louisiana-Monroe Grambling 24.3
San Diego St. Weber St. 8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0
2 Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7
3 Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1
4 Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4
5 L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0
6 Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6
7 Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5
8 Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0
9 Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4
10 Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2
11 Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0
12 Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8
13 Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7
14 Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5
15 Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6
16 Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5
17 Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2
18 Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8
19 South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2
20 Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8
21 Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9
22 Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8
23 Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6
24 Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2
25 Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2
26 Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1
27 Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7
28 Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2
29 Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1
30 Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6
31 Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5
32 Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2
33 Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9
34 Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7
35 Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3
36 Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1
37 Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0
38 Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7
39 Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7
40 Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7
41 California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4
42 Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3
43 Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2
44 U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8
45 Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8
46 Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3
47 West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1
48 Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6
49 Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5
50 Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0
51 U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4
52 Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4
53 Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1
54 Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0
55 Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9
56 Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8
57 Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2
58 T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2
59 Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7
60 North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6
61 Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2
62 Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1
63 Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7
64 BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7
65 Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4
66 North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5
67 Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1
68 Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9
69 Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7
70 Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6
71 Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2
72 SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1
73 Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2
74 Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4
75 Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2
76 Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7
77 Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6
78 Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2
79 Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1
80 Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6
81 South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2
82 Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1
83 Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9
84 San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8
85 Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8
86 Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2
87 Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1
88 Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9
89 Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9
90 Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2
91 North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1
92 Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6
93 Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3
94 Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0
95 Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9
96 Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8
97 Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5
98 Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0
99 Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9
100 Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5
101 Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3
102 Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4
103 Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4
104 Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8
105 Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7
106 Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6
107 U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0
108 U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3
109 Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1
110 Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7
111 East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0
112 Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5
113 Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2
114 San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2
115 Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2
116 Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2
117 New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1
118 Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4
119 Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4
120 Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0
121 New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0
122 Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7
123 Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5
124 Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0
125 Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5
126 Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8
127 South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2
128 Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6
129 Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5
130 U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 108.1 107.1 109.2 108.1 0-0 0-0
Cincinnati 106.8 105.0 107.0 106.3 0-0 0-0
Temple 102.2 101.0 103.5 102.2 0-0 0-0
South Florida 94.6 95.9 95.1 95.2 0-0 0-0
East Carolina 85.2 87.6 85.1 86.0 0-0 0-0
Connecticut 73.6 77.9 72.1 74.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 103.8 103.3 105.0 104.0 0-0 0-0
SMU 99.4 98.4 99.6 99.1 0-0 0-0
Houston 95.4 96.7 98.2 96.7 0-0 0-0
Tulane 95.9 96.6 96.0 96.2 0-0 0-0
Tulsa 91.5 91.9 92.5 92.0 0-0 0-0
Navy 86.2 89.2 85.8 87.1 0-0 0-0
 

 

AAC Averages 95.2 95.9 95.8 95.6
 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 133.8 129.6 134.6 132.7 0-0 0-0
Syracuse 111.9 111.5 112.0 111.8 0-0 0-0
Florida St. 105.2 105.9 105.4 105.5 0-0 0-0
Boston College 104.1 103.5 104.6 104.1 0-0 0-0
Wake Forest 103.4 102.8 103.5 103.2 0-0 0-0
North Carolina St. 102.5 102.2 103.1 102.6 0-0 0-0
Louisville 94.7 94.2 93.0 93.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Miami (Fla.) 109.6 108.3 110.8 109.6 0-0 0-0
Virginia Tech 108.5 109.1 109.2 108.9 0-0 0-0
Pittsburgh 108.0 107.6 107.4 107.7 0-0 0-0
Virginia 107.1 107.7 107.2 107.3 0-0 0-0
Duke 104.0 103.8 103.8 103.9 0-0 0-0
North Carolina 99.5 100.9 101.0 100.5 0-0 0-0
Georgia Tech 100.1 98.6 101.0 99.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

ACC Averages 106.6 106.1 106.9 106.5
 

 

Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 120.5 119.4 120.1 120.0 0-0 0-0
Iowa St. 111.8 112.2 111.7 111.9 0-0 0-0
Texas 111.4 111.2 110.7 111.1 0-0 0-0
Baylor 110.3 110.2 109.8 110.1 0-0 0-0
Oklahoma St. 109.6 110.0 108.9 109.5 0-0 0-0
Texas Tech 107.5 107.6 106.6 107.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas St. 107.0 106.8 106.6 106.8 0-0 0-0
West Virginia 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.1 0-0 0-0
T C U 101.8 105.6 102.2 103.2 0-0 0-0
Kansas 95.3 96.5 95.0 95.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big 12 Averages 108.2 108.6 107.7 108.2
 

 

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 122.9 120.8 123.6 122.4 0-0 0-0
Ohio St. 121.1 119.3 121.3 120.6 0-0 0-0
Michigan St. 115.6 115.3 115.7 115.5 0-0 0-0
Penn St. 115.0 113.9 114.9 114.6 0-0 0-0
Indiana 109.6 107.8 108.6 108.7 0-0 0-0
Maryland 102.3 101.8 101.1 101.7 0-0 0-0
Rutgers 91.9 91.9 91.5 91.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 115.1 112.6 114.9 114.2 0-0 0-0
Minnesota 111.8 111.2 110.6 111.2 0-0 0-0
Northwestern 111.3 110.4 110.3 110.7 0-0 0-0
Purdue 110.4 110.3 110.0 110.2 0-0 0-0
Wisconsin 109.7 109.0 109.0 109.2 0-0 0-0
Nebraska 107.2 108.8 107.0 107.7 0-0 0-0
Illinois 97.2 98.1 96.3 97.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

Big Ten Averages 110.1 109.4 109.6 109.7
 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Int’l. 94.0 93.7 94.8 94.2 0-0 0-0
Marshall 93.1 92.6 94.0 93.2 0-0 0-0
Florida Atlantic 91.9 91.1 92.6 91.9 0-0 0-0
Middle Tennessee 90.7 90.0 90.8 90.5 0-0 0-0
Western Kentucky 87.9 88.7 89.4 88.6 0-0 0-0
Charlotte 86.4 87.0 86.8 86.7 0-0 0-0
Old Dominion 75.7 76.0 75.7 75.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Southern Miss. 94.6 92.2 94.9 93.9 0-0 0-0
North Texas 93.0 92.3 93.9 93.1 0-0 0-0
Louisiana Tech 91.1 90.8 91.2 91.0 0-0 0-0
U A B 87.2 89.1 87.7 88.0 0-0 0-0
Texas-San Antonio 77.2 80.0 76.9 78.0 0-0 0-0
Rice 77.1 78.8 76.4 77.5 0-0 0-0
U T E P 66.9 72.6 67.3 68.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

CUSA Averages 86.2 86.8 86.6 86.5
 

 

FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 121.0 119.1 121.5 120.5 x 0-0
Army 102.8 102.7 102.6 102.7 x 0-0
BYU 101.6 101.7 101.8 101.7 x 0-0
Liberty 88.1 89.6 88.6 88.7 x 0-0
New Mexico St. 78.0 81.2 77.8 79.0 x 0-0
Massachusetts 73.7 76.8 73.3 74.6 x 0-0
 

 

Indep. Averages 94.2 95.2 94.3 94.5
 

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio 96.5 95.2 98.0 96.6 0-0 0-0
Miami (Ohio) 90.7 89.0 91.1 90.3 0-0 0-0
Buffalo 88.2 89.0 89.2 88.8 0-0 0-0
Kent St. 85.0 85.5 85.2 85.2 0-0 0-0
Akron 83.3 83.4 83.5 83.4 0-0 0-0
Bowling Green 78.5 78.5 78.9 78.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Western Michigan 99.6 98.2 99.9 99.2 0-0 0-0
Northern Illinois 94.5 93.2 94.6 94.1 0-0 0-0
Toledo 90.5 90.8 91.6 90.9 0-0 0-0
Eastern Michigan 89.0 89.2 89.8 89.4 0-0 0-0
Ball St. 85.8 85.4 85.3 85.5 0-0 0-0
Central Michigan 78.1 79.2 78.2 78.5 0-0 0-0
 

 

MAC Averages 88.3 88.1 88.8 88.4
 

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 105.6 104.3 107.0 105.6 0-0 0-0
Boise St. 105.2 104.3 105.5 105.0 0-0 0-0
Air Force 96.7 98.0 97.5 97.4 0-0 0-0
Wyoming 94.0 96.6 94.8 95.1 0-0 0-0
New Mexico 83.2 86.3 82.6 84.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado St. 79.4 84.2 79.5 81.0 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 99.6 100.2 100.4 100.1 0-0 0-0
Hawaii 95.7 97.7 95.0 96.1 0-0 0-0
San Diego St. 94.2 96.2 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Nevada 92.2 93.9 91.8 92.6 0-0 0-0
U N L V 86.4 88.9 86.5 87.3 0-0 0-0
San Jose St. 83.8 86.0 82.9 84.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

MWC Averages 93.0 94.7 93.1 93.6
 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Oregon 113.3 113.5 114.6 113.8 0-0 0-0
Washington 112.7 111.9 113.8 112.8 0-0 0-0
Washington St. 112.0 110.7 112.2 111.6 0-0 0-0
Stanford 108.7 107.5 108.8 108.3 0-0 0-0
California 107.0 107.0 108.3 107.4 0-0 0-0
Oregon St. 94.8 96.2 93.6 94.9 0-0 0-0
 

 

South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 116.6 114.7 116.8 116.0 0-0 0-0
Arizona St. 107.9 106.6 108.5 107.7 0-0 0-0
U C L A 107.1 106.9 106.3 106.8 0-0 0-0
U S C 103.8 105.2 104.2 104.4 0-0 0-0
Arizona 101.9 102.0 102.4 102.1 0-0 0-0
Colorado 100.0 99.0 100.1 99.7 0-0 0-0
 

 

Pac-12 Averages 107.1 106.8 107.5 107.1
 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 125.7 123.6 126.1 125.1 0-0 0-0
Florida 120.7 117.8 119.7 119.4 0-0 0-0
Missouri 115.5 112.4 115.5 114.5 0-0 0-0
South Carolina 113.8 112.2 113.7 113.2 0-0 0-0
Tennessee 111.8 111.6 110.3 111.2 0-0 0-0
Kentucky 108.8 107.5 107.6 108.0 0-0 0-0
Vanderbilt 104.5 103.3 103.6 103.8 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 135.3 130.6 136.1 134.0 0-0 0-0
L S U 123.5 120.4 122.2 122.0 0-0 0-0
Texas A&M 118.3 116.6 116.7 117.2 0-0 0-0
Auburn 117.0 114.4 116.1 115.8 0-0 0-0
Mississippi St. 117.5 112.5 117.2 115.7 0-0 0-0
Ole Miss 102.2 101.1 100.9 101.4 0-0 0-0
Arkansas 99.5 100.5 98.8 99.6 0-0 0-0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.3 113.2 114.6 114.4
 

 

Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 105.4 103.3 104.5 104.4 0-0 0-0
Georgia Southern 98.5 98.0 97.9 98.2 0-0 0-0
Troy 94.9 95.5 93.9 94.8 0-0 0-0
Georgia St. 84.0 85.6 83.0 84.2 0-0 0-0
Coastal Carolina 81.4 82.6 80.2 81.4 0-0 0-0
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Louisiana 92.5 92.9 91.4 92.3 0-0 0-0
Arkansas St. 91.4 91.7 91.3 91.5 0-0 0-0
Louisiana-Monroe 89.2 89.9 89.2 89.4 0-0 0-0
Texas St. 83.8 84.9 83.8 84.2 0-0 0-0
South Alabama 74.3 78.0 73.1 75.2 0-0 0-0
 

 

SBC Averages 89.5 90.2 88.8 89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings

 

# League Average
1 SEC 114.4
2 BTen 109.7
3 B12 108.2
4 P12 107.1
5 ACC 106.5
6 AAC 95.6
7 Ind 94.5
8 MWC 93.6
9 SUN 89.5
10 MAC 88.4
11 CUSA 86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1 Central Florida
2 Cincinnati
3 Utah St.
4 Boise St.
5 Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl Conf Conf Team Team
Bahamas MAC CUSA Western Michigan Southern Miss.
Frisco AAC At-large Houston Florida Int’l.
Cure AAC SBC Temple Georgia Southern
New Mexico CUSA MWC Louisiana Tech San Diego St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Central Florida Ohio
Camellia MAC SBC Eastern Michigan Louisiana
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Utah St. UCLA
New Orleans CUSA SBC #1 UAB Appalachian St.
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Hawaii BYU/MWC AAC BYU Memphis
Independence ACC SEC Florida St. North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Northwestern
Military ACC AAC Pittsburgh South Florida
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Virginia Minnesota
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Mississippi St.
Holiday Pac-12 Big Ten Washington St. Iowa
Cheez-It Big 12 Pac-12 West Virginia Hawaii
Camping World ACC Big 12 Miami (Fla.) Iowa St.
Cotton At-large At-large Army Washington
First Responder CUSA Big 12 Marshall TCU
Redbox Pac-12 Big Ten Stanford Wisconsin
Music City SEC ACC Indiana Wake Forest
Orange ACC BTen/SEC Notre Dame Florida
Belk ACC SEC Syracuse Tennessee
Sun ACC Pac-12 Virginia Tech Arizona St.
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Kentucky
Arizona SBC MWC Troy Fresno St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Baylor Oregon
Citrus SEC BTen/ACC Texas A&M Nebraska
Outback Big Ten SEC Auburn Penn St.
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Utah
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma LSU
Birmingham AAC SEC SMU North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator SEC Big Ten South Carolina Michigan St.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Toledo Air Force
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Purdue Boise St.
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta Top 4 Top 4 Clemson Georgia
Peach Top 4 Top 4 Alabama Michigan
Champsionship Fiesta Peach Clemson Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

March 24, 2019

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Tennessee

117.9

0.0

Iowa

111.4

6.5

North Carolina

121.3

0.0

Washington

109.7

11.6

Duke

122.9

0.0

Central Florida

110.0

12.9

Texas Tech

118.0

0.0

Buffalo

115.2

2.8

Virginia Tech

115.5

0.0

Liberty

107.3

8.2

Virginia

120.8

0.0

Oklahoma

111.4

9.4

Houston

115.3

0.0

Ohio St.

110.2

5.1

Oregon

110.8

0.0

UC Irvine

106.6

4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time

Game

Network

Site

12:10 PM

Tennessee vs. Iowa

CBS

Columbus

2:40 PM

North Carolina vs. Washington

CBS

Columbus

5:15 PM

Duke vs. Central Florida

CBS

Columbia

6:10 PM

Texas Tech vs. Buffalo

TNT

Tulsa

7:10 PM

Virginia Tech vs. Liberty

TBS

San Jose

7:45 PM

Virginia vs. Oklahoma

TruTV

Columbia

8:40 PM

Houston vs. Ohio St.

TNT

Tulsa

9:40 PM

Oregon vs. UC-Irvine

TBS

San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 13, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Thursday, March 14, 2019

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:08 pm

Thursday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Akron

103.5

1.0

Buffalo

113.6

-9.1

Arizona St.

108.4

0.0

UCLA

104.9

3.5

Auburn

115.7

0.0

Missouri

106.1

9.6

Baylor

110.6

0.0

Iowa St.

114.1

-3.5

Bowling Green

103.0

0.0

Ball St.

102.8

0.2

Cal St. Fullerton

98.9

0.0

UC Davis

95.6

3.3

Duke

123.2

1.0

Syracuse

111.3

12.9

Duquesne

100.1

0.0

Saint Joseph’s

99.4

0.7

Eastern Washington

95.5

0.0

Montana St.

95.2

0.3

Florida

111.7

0.0

Arkansas

108.7

3.0

Florida St.

114.7

0.0

Virginia Tech

116.5

-1.8

Fresno St.

107.5

0.0

Air Force

94.8

12.7

George Mason

101.4

0.0

George Washington

93.3

8.1

Grand Canyon

104.7

0.0

Seattle

98.6

6.1

Howard

91.4

0.0

Bethune-Cookman

92.5

-1.1

Illinois

106.2

1.5

Iowa

110.9

-3.2

Kansas

114.9

1.5

Texas

112.0

4.4

Kansas St.

113.2

1.0

TCU

110.0

4.2

Kent St.

101.5

0.0

Central Michigan

101.9

-0.4

Long Beach St.

96.9

2.0

Hawaii

98.4

0.5

Louisiana

99.7

1.0

South Alabama

97.4

3.3

Louisiana Monroe

101.3

1.0

Coastal Carolina

100.7

1.6

Maryland

113.4

0.0

Nebraska

110.5

2.9

Memphis

106.8

3.0

Tulane

92.9

16.9

Minnesota

109.3

0.0

Penn St.

110.2

-0.9

Mississippi St.

113.4

0.0

Texas A&M

105.4

8.0

Montana

102.8

0.0

Sacramento St.

94.2

8.6

Nevada

115.0

1.0

Boise St.

102.6

13.4

New Mexico St.

107.7

0.0

Chicago St.

79.3

28.4

New Orleans

94

0.0

Lamar

98.0

-4.0

North Carolina

121.0

1.0

Louisville

114.0

8.0

North Carolina Central

92.8

0.0

Delaware St.

79.5

13.3

North Texas

100.9

1.5

Western Kentucky

103.1

-0.7

Northern Colorado

100.4

0.0

Southern Utah

93.0

7.4

Ohio St.

110.3

0.0

Indiana

110.6

-0.3

Old Dominion

103.8

0.0

Louisiana Tech

101.8

2.0

Ole Miss

110.1

0.0

Alabama

108.0

2.1

Oregon St.

106.2

0.0

Colorado

107.0

-0.8

Rhode Island

102.4

0.0

La Salle

97.2

5.2

Saint Louis

103.3

0.0

Richmond

99.0

4.3

Seton Hall

108.4

0.0

Georgetown

106.3

2.1

South Florida

103.2

0.0

Connecticut

105.2

-2.0

Southeastern Louisiana

94.7

0.0

Central Arkansas

91.6

3.1

Southern Miss.

103.4

0.0

Marshall

99.7

3.7

St. John’s

107.8

1.5

Marquette

112.6

-3.3

Texas Tech

118.3

0.0

West Virginia

104.9

13.4

Toledo

107.9

0.0

Northern Illinois

101.1

6.8

Tulsa

103.2

0.0

SMU

104.2

-1.0

UC Irvine

105.5

0.0

UC Riverside

91.6

13.9

UC Santa Barbara

101.0

0.0

Cal St. Northridge

93.7

7.3

UNLV

101.1

2.5

San Diego St.

103.8

-0.2

UT Rio Grande Valley

97.6

0.0

Cal St. Bakersfield

96.7

0.9

Utah

104.2

0.0

Oregon

109.3

-5.1

Utah St.

110.0

0.0

New Mexico

99.3

10.7

Utah Valley

104.0

0.0

Missouri Kansas City

95.0

9.0

UTSA

99.8

0.0

UAB

100.1

-0.3

Villanova

113.3

0.0

Providence

106.7

6.6

Virginia

123.3

0.0

North Carolina St.

112.9

10.4

Washington

105.5

0.0

USC

105.7

-0.2

Weber St.

98.5

0.0

Portland St.

94.7

3.8

Wichita St.

104.8

0.0

East Carolina

93.7

11.1

Xavier

107.2

0.0

Creighton

110.0

-2.8

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference

Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN

First Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

South Florida (19-12)

9

Connecticut (15-16)

5

Memphis (19-12)

12

Tulane (4-26)

7

Tulsa (18-13)

10

SMU (14-16)

6

Wichita St. (17-13)

11

East Carolina (10-20)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference

Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

George Washington

68

Massachusetts

64 ot

Richmond

52

Fordham

50

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Rhode Island (16-14)

9

La Salle (10-20)

5

George Mason (17-14)

12

George Washington (9-23)

7

Duquesne (19-12)

10

Saint Joseph’s (13-18)

6

Saint Louis (19-12)

11

Richmond (13-19)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC

Second Round–Wednesday, March 13

North Carolina St.

59

Clemson

58

Virginia Tech

71

Miami (Fla)

56

Louisville

75

Notre Dame

53

Syracuse

73

Pittsburgh

59

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Virginia (28-2)

8

North Carolina St. (22-10)

4

Florida St. (25-6)

5

Virginia Tech (24-7)

2

North Carolina (26-5)

7

Louisville (20-12)

3

Duke (26-5)

6

Syracuse (20-12)

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

TCU

73

Oklahoma St.

70

West Virginia

72

Oklahoma

71

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Kansas St. (24-7)

8

TCU (20-12)

4

Baylor (19-12)

5

Iowa St. (20-11)

2

Texas Tech (26-5)

10

West Virginia (13-19)

3

Kansas (23-8)

6

Texas (16-15)

 

 

Big East Conference

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Providence

80

Butler

57

St. John’s

82

DePaul

74

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Villanova (22-9)

8

Providence (18-14)

4

Xavier (16-14)

5

Creighton (18-13)

2

Marquette (23-8)

7

St. John’s (21-11)

3

Seton Hall (18-12)

6

Georgetown (19-12)

 

Big Sky Conference

Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Sacramento St.

72

Northern Arizona

60

Southern Utah

94

Idaho St.

80

Montana St.

75

Idaho

71

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Montana (23-8)

9

Sacramento St. (15-15)

4

Weber St. (17-14)

5

Portland St. (16-15)

2

Northern Colorado (21-10)

7

Southern Utah (15-15)

3

Eastern Washington (14-17)

6

Montana St. (15-16)

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Site: United Center, Chicago, IL

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Nebraska

68

Rutgers

61

Illinois

74

Northwestern

69 ot

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Ohio St. (18-13)

9

Indiana (17-14)

5

Maryland (22-9)

13

Nebraska (17-15)

7

Minnesota (19-12)

10

Penn St. (14-17)

6

Iowa (21-10)

11

Illinois (12-20)

 

 

Big West Conference

Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

UC Irvine (27-5)

8

Cal St. Riverside (10-22)

4

Hawaii (18-12)

5

Long Beach St. (14-18)

3

Cal St. Fullerton (14-16)

6

UC Davis (11-19)

2

UC Santa Barbara (21-9)

7

Cal St. Northridge (13-19)

 

 

Conference USA

Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Louisiana Tech

57

Florida Atlantic

56

UAB

70

Middle Tennessee

61

North Texas

71

Florida Int’l.

57

Marshall

82

Rice

65

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Old Dominion (23-8)

8

Louisiana Tech (20-12)

4

UTSA (17-14)

5

UAB (19-13)

2

Western Kentucky (18-13)

10

North Texas (21-11)

3

Southern Miss. (19-11)

6

Marshall (19-13)

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Buffalo (28-3)

8/9

Akron/Miami (O)

4

Kent St. (22-9)

5

Central Michigan (22-10)

2

Toledo (25-6)

7

Northern Illinois (16-16)

3

Bowling Green (20-11)

11

Ball St. (16-16)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA

Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 13

North Carolina A&T

82

Coppin St.

79 ot

Norfolk St.

78

South Carolina St.

73

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

North Carolina Central (15-15)

11

Delaware St. (6-24)

Howard (16-15)

5

Bethune-Cookman (14-16)

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Boise St.

66

Colorado St.

57

New Mexico

78

Wyoming

68

Air Force

87

San Jose St.

56

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Nevada (28-3)

9

Boise St. (13-19)

4

San Diego St. (19-11)

5

UNLV (17-13)

2

Utah St. (25-6)

7

New Mexico (14-17)

3

Fresno St. (21-8)

6

Air Force (14-17)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

USC

78

Arizona

65

Colorado

56

California

51

UCLA

79

Stanford

72

Oregon

84

Washington St.

51

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Washington (24-7)

8

USC (16-16)

4

Oregon St. (18-12)

5

Colorado (20-11)

2

Arizona St. (21-9)

7

UCLA (17-15)

3

Utah (17-13)

6

Oregon (20-12)

 

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13

Colgate

94

Bucknell

80

Champion: Colgate (24-10)

 

 

Southland Conference

Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Lamar

81

Houston Baptist

79

Central Arkansas

73

Texas A&M CC

53

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

4

New Orleans (17-12)

5

Lamar (20-12)

3

Southeastern Louisiana (16-15)

7

Central Arkansas (14-18)

 

 

Southeastern Conference

Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

First Round–Wednesday, March 13

Missouri

71

Georgia

61

Texas A&M

69

Vanderbilt

52

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

8

Florida (17-14)

9

Arkansas (17-14)

5

Auburn (22-9)

12

Missouri (15-16)

7

Ole Miss (20-11)

10

Alabama (17-14)

6

Mississippi St. (22-9)

11

Texas A&M (14-17)

 

Sun Belt Conference

Site:  Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Second Round–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

6

Coastal Carolina (15-15)

7

Louisiana Monroe (17-14)

5

Louisiana (19-12)

8

South Alabama (16-16)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

New Mexico St. (27-4)

8

Chicago St. (3-28)

4

UT Rio Grande Valley (18-15)

5

Cal St. Bakersfield (16-14)

3

Grand Canyon (18-12)

6

Seattle (18-13)

2

Utah Valley (23-8)

7

Missouri Kansas City (11-20)

 

 

Automatic Bids To The NCAA Tournament

Team

Conf

W-L

Liberty

Atlantic Sun

28-6

Gardner-Webb

Big South

23-11

Murray St.

Ohio Valley

27-4

Bradley

Missouri Valley

20-14

Wofford

Southern

29-4

Iona

Metro Atlantic

17-15

Fairleigh-Dickinson

Northeast

20-13

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

26-8

Northeastern

Colonial

23-10

Saint Mary’s

West Coast

22-11

North Dakota St.

Summit

18-15

Colgate

Patriot

24-10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Wednesday, March 13, 2019

March 13, 2019

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Virginia

Gonzaga

Kentucky

North Carolina

2

Duke

Michigan St.

Tennessee

LSU

3

Michigan

Texas Tech

Houston

Purdue

4

Florida St.

Wisconsin

Kansas

Kansas St.

5

Virginia Tech

Maryland

Mississippi St.

Nevada

6

Buffalo

Villanova

Marquette

Auburn

7

Wofford

Cincinnati

Louisville

Iowa St.

8

Baylor

VCU

Iowa

Ole Miss

9

Syracuse

Washington

Central Florida

Oklahoma

10

Minnesota

Seton Hall

Utah St.

TCU

11

Temple

Arizona St.

North Carolina St.

Ohio St./St. John’s

12

Florida/Clemson

Saint Mary’s

Murray St.

New Mexico St.

13

Liberty

Vermont

Old Dominion

UC-Irvine

14

Montana

Northeastern

Northern Kentucky

Georgia St.

15

Yale

Bradley

Bucknell

Gardner-Webb

16

Sam Houston St.

Prairie View

Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson

North Dakota St./Norfolk St.

 

Last 4 Byes

TCU

Temple

Arizona St.

North Carolina St.

 

Last 4 In

Ohio St.

St. John’s

Clemson

Florida

 

First 4 Out

Creighton

Indiana

Georgetown

Texas

Next 4 Out

Alabama

Belmont

Nebraska

UNC Greensboro

 

Bids By Conference

Conference

Bids

ACC

9

Big Ten

8

Big 12

7

SEC

7

Big East

4

AAC

4

MWC

2

Pac-12

2

West Coast

2

One-Bid Leagues

23

 

Automatic Bids To Date

Team

Conf

W-L

Liberty

Atlantic Sun

28-6

Gardner-Webb

Big South

23-11

Murray St.

Ohio Valley

27-4

Bradley

Missouri Valley

20-14

Wofford

Southern

29-4

Iona

Metro Atlantic

17-15

Fairleigh-Dickinson

Northeast

20-13

Northern Kentucky

Horizon

26-8

Northeastern

Colonial

23-10

Saint Mary’s

West Coast

22-11

North Dakota St.

Summit

18-15

 

 

 

 

March 10, 2019

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 10, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home

Rating

HCA

Visitor

Rating

Spread

Lipscomb

109.0

3.0

Liberty

105.9

6.1

Radford

102.7

2.5

Gardner-Webb

99.3

5.9

Hofstra

106.5

0.0

James Madison

93.8

12.7

William & Mary

97.6

0.0

Delaware

94.7

2.9

Northeastern

105.6

0.0

UNC Wilmington

94.7

10.9

Charleston

103.4

1.0

Drexel

95.2

9.2

Siena

95.4

2.5

Iona

97.7

0.2

Canisius

95.1

0.0

Monmouth

93.3

1.8

Northern Iowa

99.1

0.0

Bradley

99.5

-0.4

Colgate

102.1

2.5

Navy

92.8

11.8

Bucknell

101.4

2.5

Lehigh

100.3

3.6

Wofford

112.9

0.0

East Tennessee St.

106.6

6.3

UNC Greensboro

105.5

0.0

Furman

107.9

-2.4

North Dakota St.

97.5

0.0

Oral Roberts

92.8

4.7

South Dakota

97.4

1.0

Purdue Fort Wayne

98.7

-0.3

Cincinnati

111.8

3.0

Houston

114.5

0.3

Penn St.

109.9

2.5

Illinois

106.5

5.9

Indiana

110.4

3.0

Rutgers

106.3

7.1

East Carolina

93.7

2.5

Connecticut

105.2

-9.0

Nebraska

110.5

3.0

Iowa

110.8

2.7

South Florida

103.5

3.0

SMU

103.8

2.7

Ohio St.

110.3

3.0

Wisconsin

115.5

-2.2

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Md.-Baltimore Co.

62

Albany

54

Vermont

73

Maine

57

Binghamton

73

Stony Brook

71

Hartford

78

UMass Lowell

70

 

Semifinals–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Vermont (25-6)

7

Binghamton (10-22)

3

Maryland-Baltimore Co. (20-12)

4

Hartford (18-14)

 

 

Atlantic Sun Conference

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Lipscomb (25-6)

2

Liberty (27-6)

 

 

Big South Conference

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Radford) ***

Seed

Home Team

Seed

Visitors

2

Radford (22-10)

4

Gardner-Webb (22-11)

 

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC

First Round–Saturday, March 9

James Madison

74

Towson

73

UNC Wilmington

93

Elon

86

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Hofstra (25-6)

8

James Madison (14-18)

4

William & Mary (14-16)

5

Delaware (16-15)

2

Northeastern (20-10)

10

UNC Wilmington (10-22)

3

Charleston (23-8)

6

Drexel (13-18)

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Site: Times Union Center, Albany, NY (Siena)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Monmouth

98

Quinnipiac

92

Siena

87

Rider

81

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Iona (15-15)

5

Siena (17-15)

2

Canisius (15-16)

6

Monmouth (13-20)

 

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)

Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

Bradley

53

Loyola (Chi)

51

Northern Iowa

60

Drake

58

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

6

Northern Iowa (16-17)

5

Bradley (19-14)

 

Northeast Conference

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Semifinals–Saturday, March 9

St. Francis (PA)

72

Long Island

64

Fairleigh-Dickinson

66

Robert Morris

62

 

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

St. Francis (PA) (18-13)

2

Fairleigh-Dickinson (19-13)

 

 

Ohio Valley Conference

*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 9 ***

Murray St.

77

Belmont

65

Champion:  Murray St.  27-4

 

 

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Home

Seed

Visitor

1

Colgate (22-10)

5

Navy (12-18)

2

Bucknell (20-10)

3

Lehigh (20-10)

 

 

Southern Conference

Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Wofford

99

VMI

72

East Tennessee St.

68

Chattanooga

64

UNC Greensboro

77

Samford

70

Furman

85

Mercer

74

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

1

Wofford (27-4)

4/5

East Tennessee St. (24-8)

2

UNC Greensboro (27-5)

3

Furman (25-6)

 

 

Summit League

Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

Western Illinois

79

South Dakota St.

76

Omaha

81

North Dakota

76

 

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)

5

South Dakota (13-16)

North Dakota St. (15-15)

6

Oral Roberts (11-20)

 

 

West Coast Conference

Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9

San Diego

80

BYU

57

Pepperdine

89

San Francisco

72

 

Semifinals–Monday, March 11

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

2

Saint Mary’s (20-11)

6

San Diego (21-13)

1

Gonzaga (29-2)

8

Pepperdine (16-17)

 

Teams In The Big Dance

Murray St.  (OVC)  27-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 28, 2018

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for December 29-30, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Teams in Power Conferences

Saturday

Home Team Visitor Spread
North Carolina Davidson 6.2
Notre Dame Coppin St. 28.8
Louisville Kentucky -3.4
Wake Forest Gardner-Webb 3.3
Syracuse St. Bonaventure 11.8
Pittsburgh Colgate 5.4
Miami (Fla.) Campbell 12.4
Kansas Eastern Michigan 17.1
Oklahoma St. Texas A&M–C.C. 18.9
Baylor New Orleans 14.5
Kansas St. George Mason 17.0
Ohio St. High Point 15.3
Penn St. Md.-Baltimore Co. 6.0
Michigan St. Northern Illinois 23.3
Illinois Florida Atlantic 11.9
Rutgers Maine 10.4
Purdue Belmont 9.7
Western Kentucky Wisconsin -6.6
Maryland Radford 8.3
Iowa Bryant 26.6
Utah Nevada -10.1
Washington St. Santa Clara 6.7
Arizona St. Princeton 14.7
UCLA Liberty 6.0
Boise St. Oregon 2.7
California Seattle -0.2
Oregon St. Central Connecticut 16.5
Stanford Long Beach St. 9.9
Mississippi St. BYU 6.8
Tennessee Tennessee Tech 28.0
Vanderbilt Tennessee St. 15.9
Missouri Morehead St. 16.5
Ole Miss Florida Gulf Coast 5.6
Texas A&M Texas Southern 12.7
Florida Butler 3.4
Auburn North Florida 19.6

 

Sunday

Home Team Visitor Spread
Michigan Binghamton 23.1
West Virginia Lehigh 13.0
Clemson Lipscomb 9.9
Minnesota Mount St. Mary’s 15.2
Northwestern Columbia 13.9
Georgia U Mass 6.0
USC UC-Davis 12.3

 

Basketball Ratings Explanation

We are very happy to have your patronage here at the PiRate Ratings, and we know that since the end of last basketball season, we have seen more than one thousand new readers discover us through other sites.  We really appreciate those of you that have sent us comments saying that you posted our site on sports forums.  We need to explain how we calculate our basketball ratings, which are entirely different from how we calculate our football ratings.

First, our basketball ratings are 100% derived from the “Four Factors” and Schedule Strength.  Thus, it takes a long time to input the ratings for each team, since all 353 teams’ statistics must be updated after every game played by every Division 1 team.  We can only do this late Thursday Night in order to publish on Friday.  You will only see us submit games involving Power Conference teams that are playing Division 1 opponents on Saturday or Sunday every week, until March.  We will occasionally add top Mid-Majors like Gonzaga, Buffalo, and Nevada, as long as they are in the top 25 or close to it and look like at-large candidates for the NCAA Tournament if they don’t get the automatic bid.

What are the Four Factors?

Those of you that know us know that our PiRate Captain is a baseball sabermetrician and former Major League analyticist and scout.  He likes to see the Four Factors as something similar to Weighted On-Base Average and WAR in baseball.  Since baseball players’ stats can be calculated to figure out expected wins, he believes that similar basketball data can be calculated to determine the winner in college basketball games.  He goes one step further, trying to find an algorithm that also estimates the pointspread.  This is an ongoing experiment in its fifth year, with the algorithm being tweaked a little each year, much like the wOBA numbers adjust every year in baseball.

Here are the Four Factors for College Basketball as Used by the PiRate Captain.  Because they apply to offense and defense, they are really like Eight Factors.

1.) Effective Field Goal Percentage 

This is a measure that combines two-point and three-point shooting percentages into one.  Since a made three-point basket is the same as 1.5 made two-point baskets, the easy calculation for this stat is. (FG + 0.5*3pt))/FGA

where FG is all field goals made, 3 pt is three-pointers made, and FGA is all field goals attempted.

If your team makes 28 baskets in a game, with 8 of those being 3-pointers and attempts 60 shots in a game, their EFG% is: (28+(0.5*8)/60, which equals 53.3%

 

2.) Turnover % 

This measures the percentage of possessions in which a team turns the ball over without a shot and conversely forces the opponent to turn the ball over without a shot.  The PiRates add a little bit of a twist to how most analytics folks use this one.  We will explain the R+T factor later, but for now consider that a steal is a more important turnover than all others, because many times a steal leads to easy points and possible fouls.

The TOV% is simply Turnovers per 100 possessions.  So that if a team has 70 possessions in a game and turns the ball over 14 times, their TOV% would be (14/70*100) = 20.0%

College Basketball Possessions are now kept for all games, but if you don’t have access to these stats, you can estimate possessions per game by the following formula used only for college and not NBA (slightly different formula for the pros)

FGA + (0.465* FTA) – Off Rebounds + Turnovers

 

3.) Offensive Rebounding Percentage

This is actually both offensive and defensive rebounding margin, since opponents’ offensive rebounding margin is the other teams’ defensive rebounding margin.

You calculate this for both teams by this easy formula: (100* Off. Rebounds) / (Off. Rebounds + other team’s Def. Rebounds)

If your team has 15 offensive rebounds, and the other team has 25 defensive rebounds, your team’s Off. Reb % is (100*15)/(15+25) =37.5%

 

4.) Free Throw Rate

The “experts” disagree on how to calculate this rating.  Some of the most famous people that release advanced metric cannot come to a consensus.  There is a problem with free throws to begin with, because late in games, the trailing team deliberately fouls the leading team, thus giving the most likely winner more chances at going to the foul line than the actual game flow indicates.  Earlier this year, a team we watched on TV had attempted 12 foul shots in the first 34 minutes of the game, and instead of being ahead by 20 points (which they should have been), they only led by 5 with 6 minutes to play.  The underdog team tried to play pressure defense but could not force turnovers, so they began fouling and fouling and fouling.  Meanwhile, they bricked a lot of 3-pointers at their end, and the final outcome was 17 points.  The winning team with just 12 FTA in the first 34 minutes shot 13 more in the final 6 minutes.

This is the type of thing that gives this part of the rating too much weighting, and we tend to lower the importance of this rating for that purpose.  Over the course of NCAA Basketball history, the top foul shooting teams have tended to underperform in the Big Dance, while the National Champions have tended to be a little below normal in free throw percentage but above normal in drawing fouls, again mostly because the other team is forced to foul in the final minutes.

This is the formula we use at the PiRate Ratings: FT Made per 100 possession.

We hope this explains a little about how we calculate our ratings.  Obviously, to explain our algorithm would be like giving you the formula for Coca-Cola or Pepsi.  Plus, it would be too difficult to explain how we back-tested numbers until we came up with the exact formula, which is tweaked a little every season.

Our Plan For 2019

We plan to issue two posts per week until the start of conference tournament play in late February.  Our Monday or Tuesday publication will be our most popular feature of the entire site.  We have a baker’s dozen of accurate bracketologists (some of whom have their own sites) that send us their weekly bracketology.  We call these guys (and one gal) our Bracket Gurus.  This will be the Gurus’ third year doing this for us.  In 2017, they went 68 for 68 correctly picking every team chosen for the field.  In 2018, they went 67 for 68, so in two years, they have picked 135 out of the 136 teams.  The famous bracketologists on the big national sites average about 65 1/2 correct every year, so our Gurus are better than the leading brands.

We will issue a Friday afternoon publication like this one.  The regular menu for Friday is to post the spreads of the power conference team games for the weekend, our PiRate Ratings rankings, and then something we hope you find of interest.  In the past, we have spotlighted low and mid-major teams that might have a chance to create a little havoc in March; featured the up and coming assistant coaches that we believe will become successful head coaches; and written a little about something interesting in basketball history.  Our captain has been watching college basketball since the 1963-64 season, and he can describe the UCLA-Duke championship game like he is watching live today.  It didn’t hurt that he was a left-handed point guard who thought Gail Goodrich was an older version of him until Louie Dampier starred for Kentucky once Goodrich graduated.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk Team PiRate Rating
1 Duke 122.9
2 Gonzaga 118.5
3 Virginia 117.8
4 Michigan St. 116.3
5 Virginia Tech 115.9
6 Texas Tech 115.2
7 Nevada 115.2
8 Tennessee 115.0
9 Auburn 114.7
10 Wisconsin 114.5
11 Iowa St. 113.7
12 Florida St. 113.4
13 Kansas St. 113.2
14 Villanova 113.0
15 Purdue 113.0
16 Oklahoma 112.6
17 Indiana 112.6
18 Cincinnati 112.0
19 TCU 111.9
20 Buffalo 111.6
21 Florida 111.5
22 Butler 111.1
23 Iowa 111.0
24 Kansas 110.8
25 Creighton 110.4
26 Houston 110.3
27 Mississippi St. 110.2
28 Clemson 110.1
29 Syracuse 110.0
30 Arizona St. 109.8
31 Texas 109.6
32 Michigan 109.6
33 UCF 109.5
34 Kentucky 109.4
35 San Francisco 109.1
36 Saint Mary’s 109.1
37 St. John’s 109.0
38 Utah St. 109.0
39 West Virginia 108.7
40 Fresno St. 108.3
41 Notre Dame 108.3
42 Arizona 108.0
43 Seton Hall 107.9
44 Oklahoma St. 107.9
45 North Carolina 107.8
46 Wofford 107.8
47 Nebraska 107.8
48 Northwestern 107.8
49 Washington 107.7
50 Ohio St. 107.6
51 Alabama 107.4
52 Maryland 107.3
53 Vanderbilt 107.3
54 Baylor 107.2
55 Providence 107.1
56 Toledo 107.1
57 Missouri 107.0