PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	October 18
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona St.	Stanford	-4.2	-2.8	-4.6
Arkansas St.	Georgia St.	10.0	9.2	10.6

 

Friday	October 19
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Colorado St.	28.2	26.5	28.4
UNLV	Air Force	-9.6	-8.8	-9.4

 

Saturday	October 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Temple	Cincinnati	6.7	5.1	7.0
Arkansas	Tulsa	12.3	10.7	10.6
Navy	Houston	-8.6	-7.0	-9.4
Tulane	SMU	5.0	5.8	5.7
Missouri	Memphis	15.5	12.1	15.5
East Carolina	Central Florida	-29.1	-29.6	-30.0
South Florida	Connecticut	27.9	29.6	29.4
Syracuse	North Carolina	13.5	13.0	13.3
Duke	Virginia	12.6	10.1	12.9
Clemson	North Carolina St.	22.4	20.3	23.0
Florida St.	Wake Forest	6.7	8.3	8.6
TCU	Oklahoma	-4.6	-4.3	-6.3
Texas Tech	Kansas	13.3	13.4	13.9
Michigan St.	Michigan	-6.2	-7.0	-7.1
Wisconsin	Illinois	26.9	24.6	27.3
Iowa	Maryland	13.7	13.1	14.2
Rutgers	Northwestern	-23.4	-22.7	-25.4
Indiana	Penn St.	-20.4	-18.7	-21.2
Nebraska	Minnesota	-2.8	-3.4	-4.5
Purdue	Ohio St.	-14.2	-13.6	-14.7
Marshall	Florida Atlantic	-0.6	1.4	-0.2
Middle Tenneesee	Charlotte	17.3	16.3	18.3
Louisiana Tech	UTEP	25.8	25.2	27.9
Southern Miss.	UTSA	9.8	8.5	9.7
Florida Int’l.	Rice	26.4	27.8	29.1
UAB	North Texas	-2.2	-2.2	-2.6
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	1.1	0.8	2.6
Army	Miami (O)	15.1	14.2	13.0
Massachusetts	Coastal Carolina	10.2	9.6	10.7
New Mexico St.	Georgia Southern	-13.3	-13.1	-13.7
Toledo	Buffalo	2.5	1.4	1.1
Ohio U	Bowling Green	14.6	15.5	14.8
Ball St.	Eastern Michigan	-6.8	-5.7	-7.4
Central Michigan	Western Michigan	-4.8	-4.0	-5.4
Kent St.	Akron	-10.3	-10.6	-11.0
Wyoming	Utah St.	-10.6	-12.1	-12.7
New Mexico	Fresno St.	-19.5	-16.9	-19.7
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	30.5	30.0	33.1
Hawaii	Nevada	-5.9	-3.8	-6.7
Washington	Colorado	22.3	19.3	22.8
Oregon St.	California	-13.9	-13.8	-15.1
Washington St.	Oregon	-1.1	-2.0	-2.7
Utah	USC	9.2	8.9	10.6
UCLA	Arizona	1.9	3.5	-0.6
Ole Miss	Auburn	-7.9	-7.0	-9.2
Tennessee	Alabama	-38.1	-35.6	-40.2
LSU	Mississippi St.	1.6	4.0	2.2
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	17.3	15.9	17.3
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	22.0	21.7	22.7
Louisina-Monroe	Texas St.	13.6	10.9	14.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Liberty	Idaho St.	4.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.8	140.1
2	Clemson	133.9	131.3	134.4	133.2
3	Georgia	127.8	124.7	128.6	127.0
4	Ohio St.	127.5	125.5	127.8	126.9
5	Michigan	125.5	124.2	125.9	125.2
6	Notre Dame	124.5	121.7	123.5	123.2
7	Washington	123.4	121.4	124.7	123.1
8	Penn St.	122.3	119.6	122.6	121.5
9	Oklahoma	119.7	118.3	120.0	119.3
10	Mississippi St.	119.9	117.4	120.6	119.3
11	L S U	118.6	118.4	119.8	118.9
12	Michigan St.	117.7	115.6	117.2	116.9
13	Utah	116.0	114.3	116.9	115.8
14	Miami	115.9	114.5	115.4	115.3
15	Iowa	116.0	114.0	115.7	115.2
16	Auburn	114.7	113.4	116.3	114.8
17	Wisconsin	115.8	113.1	115.2	114.7
18	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
19	Duke	115.3	113.2	114.9	114.5
20	Kentucky	114.9	113.8	114.8	114.5
21	Missouri	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4
22	Florida	114.6	113.0	115.5	114.3
23	N. Carolina St.	114.5	113.9	114.4	114.3
24	Stanford	115.1	112.4	115.1	114.2
25	Oregon	113.7	113.6	114.6	114.0
26	Texas A&M	114.2	112.9	114.4	113.8
27	Boston College	114.4	111.8	113.8	113.4
28	Texas	113.5	112.1	113.0	112.8
29	Iowa State	112.8	111.2	112.6	112.2
30	Virginia Tech	112.2	111.2	111.8	111.7
31	West Virginia	112.4	111.4	111.5	111.7
32	S. Carolina	112.2	111.0	111.8	111.7
33	T C U	112.1	111.0	110.7	111.2
34	Georgia Tech	111.2	110.1	110.8	110.7
35	Fresno St.	110.9	109.9	111.2	110.7
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.0	110.6	110.1
37	Purdue	110.3	108.9	110.1	109.8
38	Boise St.	109.7	109.0	109.8	109.5
39	U S C	109.8	108.4	109.3	109.2
40	Syracuse	109.9	108.5	109.1	109.2
41	Washington St.	109.6	108.6	108.9	109.0
42	Utah St.	107.8	109.2	109.3	108.8
43	Texas Tech	109.5	108.2	108.4	108.7
44	Oklahoma St.	109.4	107.5	109.1	108.6
45	Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	107.5	107.3
46	Florida St.	107.4	106.8	107.1	107.1
47	Army	104.9	105.6	105.1	105.2
48	Virginia	105.2	105.7	104.5	105.1
49	Colorado	104.0	105.1	104.9	104.7
50	Maryland	105.3	104.0	104.5	104.6
51	Ole Miss	103.8	103.4	104.1	103.7
52	Kansas St.	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
53	Houston	103.0	103.7	103.4	103.4
54	Minnesota	103.7	102.8	103.6	103.4
55	Memphis	102.2	103.9	103.2	103.1
56	California	103.8	101.3	103.2	102.8
57	San Diego St.	102.4	102.6	103.2	102.7
58	Temple	102.4	102.4	103.1	102.6
59	Baylor	103.0	101.2	102.7	102.3
60	Wake Forest	103.8	101.4	101.5	102.2
61	Appalachian St.	100.8	102.6	102.5	101.9
62	N. Texas	99.9	102.4	100.9	101.0
63	Pittsburgh	101.4	100.7	100.8	101.0
64	Vanderbilt	100.5	100.8	100.5	100.6
65	BYU	100.1	100.6	100.7	100.4
66	Arizona	100.6	98.8	100.7	100.0
67	Arkansas	100.3	97.8	99.2	99.1
68	Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.5	99.1
69	South Florida	98.4	100.4	98.5	99.1
70	N. Carolina	99.4	98.4	98.8	98.9
71	Cincinnati	98.2	99.8	98.6	98.8
72	Buffalo	97.7	99.8	98.8	98.8
73	U C L A	99.5	99.3	97.1	98.6
74	Indiana	98.9	97.9	98.4	98.4
75	Kansas	99.2	97.8	97.5	98.2
76	Florida Atlantic	97.2	97.9	97.8	97.6
77	Toledo	97.1	98.2	96.9	97.4
78	Nebraska	97.9	96.4	96.1	96.8
79	Louisiana Tech	94.6	97.1	96.1	95.9
80	U A B	94.6	97.1	95.3	95.7
81	Air Force	95.3	95.9	95.4	95.5
82	Northern Illinois	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1
83	Louisville	95.2	95.2	94.4	94.9
84	Marshall	93.6	96.3	94.5	94.8
85	Tulane	94.4	94.8	94.2	94.5
86	Miami (O)	92.8	94.5	95.1	94.1
87	Eastern Michigan	93.5	94.8	94.0	94.1
88	Wyoming	94.3	94.1	93.6	94.0
89	Ohio U	92.7	93.9	93.2	93.3
90	Middle Tennessee	91.8	93.2	93.0	92.7
91	Western Michigan	91.8	93.4	92.7	92.7
92	Navy	91.4	93.6	91.0	92.0
93	Nevada	92.1	91.9	92.0	92.0
94	Troy	90.6	91.9	91.9	91.5
95	SMU	92.0	91.4	91.0	91.5
96	Akron	90.8	92.1	91.2	91.4
97	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.6	90.4	91.2
98	Illinois	91.4	91.0	90.4	90.9
99	Tulsa	91.0	90.2	91.5	90.9
100	Georgia Southern	88.9	90.6	89.5	89.7
101	New Mexico	88.4	90.0	88.5	89.0
102	Arkansas St.	86.7	88.0	88.1	87.6
103	Central Michigan	85.0	87.4	85.3	85.9
104	Southern Miss.	84.4	87.4	85.0	85.6
105	Oregon St.	86.9	84.5	85.1	85.5
106	Ball St.	84.2	86.6	84.1	85.0
107	Colorado St.	84.5	85.4	84.4	84.8
108	Massachusetts	83.4	85.3	84.3	84.3
109	U N L V	83.2	84.6	83.5	83.8
110	Rutgers	84.8	83.7	82.8	83.8
111	Old Dominion	82.0	85.4	81.5	83.0
112	Louisiana	81.7	83.9	82.8	82.8
113	East Carolina	82.9	82.6	82.3	82.6
114	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.5	82.8	82.6
115	Hawaii	82.2	84.1	81.3	82.5
116	W. Kentucky	80.7	83.7	81.6	82.0
117	Liberty	81.3	80.5	81.5	81.1
118	Bowling Green	80.6	80.9	80.8	80.8
119	Georgia St.	79.2	81.2	80.0	80.1
120	U T S A	77.2	81.4	77.8	78.8
121	Kent St.	78.0	79.1	77.7	78.3
122	Charlotte	77.0	79.4	77.2	77.9
123	South Alabama	76.4	78.3	77.0	77.2
124	Coastal Carolina	75.7	78.2	76.1	76.7
125	San Jose St.	74.9	75.6	73.1	74.5
126	N. Mexico St.	73.1	75.0	73.3	73.8
127	Connecticut	73.5	73.8	72.1	73.1
128	Texas State	71.3	74.2	71.1	72.2
129	U T E P	71.3	74.4	70.7	72.1
130	Rice	66.2	68.7	64.3	66.4

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	3-0	6-0
Temple	102.4	102.4	103.1	102.6	3-0	4-3
South Florida	98.4	100.4	98.5	99.1	2-0	6-0
Cincinnati	98.2	99.8	98.6	98.8	2-0	6-0
East Carolina	82.9	82.6	82.3	82.6	0-3	2-4
Connecticut	73.5	73.8	72.1	73.1	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	103.0	103.7	103.4	103.4	2-0	5-1
Memphis	102.2	103.9	103.2	103.1	1-3	4-3
Tulane	94.4	94.8	94.2	94.5	1-1	2-4
Navy	91.4	93.6	91.0	92.0	1-2	2-4
SMU	92.0	91.4	91.0	91.5	1-1	2-4
Tulsa	91.0	90.2	91.5	90.9	0-3	1-5
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.9	131.3	134.4	133.2	3-0	6-0
N. Carolina St.	114.5	113.9	114.4	114.3	1-0	5-0
Boston College	114.4	111.8	113.8	113.4	2-1	5-2
Syracuse	109.9	108.5	109.1	109.2	1-2	4-2
Florida St.	107.4	106.8	107.1	107.1	1-3	3-3
Wake Forest	103.8	101.4	101.5	102.2	0-2	3-3
Louisville	95.2	95.2	94.4	94.9	0-4	2-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.9	114.5	115.4	115.3	2-1	5-2
Duke	115.3	113.2	114.9	114.5	1-1	5-1
Virginia Tech	112.2	111.2	111.8	111.7	3-0	4-2
Georgia Tech	111.2	110.1	110.8	110.7	1-3	3-4
Virginia	105.2	105.7	104.5	105.1	2-1	4-2
Pittsburgh	101.4	100.7	100.8	101.0	2-1	3-4
N. Carolina	99.4	98.4	98.8	98.9	1-2	1-4
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.7	118.3	120.0	119.3	2-1	5-1
Texas	113.5	112.1	113.0	112.8	4-0	6-1
Iowa State	112.8	111.2	112.6	112.2	2-2	3-3
West Virginia	112.4	111.4	111.5	111.7	3-1	5-1
T C U	112.1	111.0	110.7	111.2	1-2	3-3
Texas Tech	109.5	108.2	108.4	108.7	2-1	4-2
Oklahoma St.	109.4	107.5	109.1	108.6	1-3	4-3
Kansas St.	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	1-3	3-4
Baylor	103.0	101.2	102.7	102.3	2-2	4-3
Kansas	99.2	97.8	97.5	98.2	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	127.5	125.5	127.8	126.9	4-0	7-0
Michigan	125.5	124.2	125.9	125.2	4-0	6-1
Penn St.	122.3	119.6	122.6	121.5	1-2	4-2
Michigan St.	117.7	115.6	117.2	116.9	3-1	4-2
Maryland	105.3	104.0	104.5	104.6	2-1	4-2
Indiana	98.9	97.9	98.4	98.4	1-3	4-3
Rutgers	84.8	83.7	82.8	83.8	0-4	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.0	114.0	115.7	115.2	2-1	5-1
Wisconsin	115.8	113.1	115.2	114.7	2-1	4-2
Northwestern	110.7	109.0	110.6	110.1	3-1	3-3
Purdue	110.3	108.9	110.1	109.8	2-1	3-3
Minnesota	103.7	102.8	103.6	103.4	0-3	3-3
Nebraska	97.9	96.4	96.1	96.8	0-4	0-6
Illinois	91.4	91.0	90.4	90.9	1-2	3-3
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.6	108.6	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.2	97.9	97.8	97.6	1-1	3-3
Marshall	93.6	96.3	94.5	94.8	2-1	4-2
Middle Tennessee	91.8	93.2	93.0	92.7	2-1	3-3
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.6	90.4	91.2	2-0	4-2
Old Dominion	82.0	85.4	81.5	83.0	0-4	1-6
W. Kentucky	80.7	83.7	81.6	82.0	0-2	1-5
Charlotte	77.0	79.4	77.2	77.9	2-1	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.9	102.4	100.9	101.0	2-1	6-1
Louisiana Tech	94.6	97.1	96.1	95.9	2-1	4-2
U A B	94.6	97.1	95.3	95.7	3-0	5-1
Southern Miss.	84.4	87.4	85.0	85.6	1-1	2-3
U T S A	77.2	81.4	77.8	78.8	2-1	3-4
U T E P	71.3	74.4	70.7	72.1	0-2	0-6
Rice	66.2	68.7	64.3	66.4	0-3	1-6
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.5	121.7	123.5	123.2	x	7-0
Army	104.9	105.6	105.1	105.2	x	4-2
BYU	100.1	100.6	100.7	100.4	x	4-3
Massachusetts	83.4	85.3	84.3	84.3	x	2-5
Liberty	81.3	80.5	81.5	81.1	x	3-3
N. Mexico St.	73.1	75.0	73.3	73.8	x	2-5
Indep. Averages	94.5	94.8	94.7	94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	97.7	99.8	98.8	98.8	3-0	6-1
Miami (O)	92.8	94.5	95.1	94.1	3-1	3-4
Ohio U	92.7	93.9	93.2	93.3	1-1	3-3
Akron	90.8	92.1	91.2	91.4	0-2	2-3
Bowling Green	80.6	80.9	80.8	80.8	0-3	1-6
Kent St.	78.0	79.1	77.7	78.3	0-3	1-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.1	98.2	96.9	97.4	1-1	3-3
Northern Illinois	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1	4-0	4-3
Eastern Michigan	93.5	94.8	94.0	94.1	1-3	3-4
Western Michigan	91.8	93.4	92.7	92.7	3-0	5-2
Central Michigan	85.0	87.4	85.3	85.9	0-3	1-6
Ball St.	84.2	86.6	84.1	85.0	2-1	3-4
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	109.7	109.0	109.8	109.5	2-1	4-2
Utah St.	107.8	109.2	109.3	108.8	2-0	5-1
Air Force	95.3	95.9	95.4	95.5	0-3	2-4
Wyoming	94.3	94.1	93.6	94.0	0-3	2-5
New Mexico	88.4	90.0	88.5	89.0	1-1	3-3
Colorado St.	84.5	85.4	84.4	84.8	2-1	3-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.9	109.9	111.2	110.7	2-0	5-1
San Diego St.	102.4	102.6	103.2	102.7	2-0	5-1
Nevada	92.1	91.9	92.0	92.0	1-2	3-4
U N L V	83.2	84.6	83.5	83.8	0-2	2-4
Hawaii	82.2	84.1	81.3	82.5	3-1	6-2
San Jose St.	74.9	75.6	73.1	74.5	0-3	0-6
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	123.4	121.4	124.7	123.1	3-1	5-2
Stanford	115.1	112.4	115.1	114.2	2-1	4-2
Oregon	113.7	113.6	114.6	114.0	2-1	5-1
Washington St.	109.6	108.6	108.9	109.0	2-1	5-1
California	103.8	101.3	103.2	102.8	0-3	3-3
Oregon St.	86.9	84.5	85.1	85.5	0-3	1-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.0	114.3	116.9	115.8	2-2	4-2
U S C	109.8	108.4	109.3	109.2	3-1	4-2
Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	107.5	107.3	1-2	3-3
Colorado	104.0	105.1	104.9	104.7	2-1	5-1
Arizona	100.6	98.8	100.7	100.0	2-2	3-4
U C L A	99.5	99.3	97.1	98.6	1-2	1-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.8	124.7	128.6	127.0	4-1	6-1
Kentucky	114.9	113.8	114.8	114.5	3-1	5-1
Missouri	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4	0-3	3-3
Florida	114.6	113.0	115.5	114.3	4-1	6-1
S. Carolina	112.2	111.0	111.8	111.7	2-3	3-3
Vanderbilt	100.5	100.8	100.5	100.6	0-3	3-4
Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.5	99.1	1-2	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.8	140.1	4-0	7-0
Mississippi St.	119.9	117.4	120.6	119.3	1-2	4-2
L S U	118.6	118.4	119.8	118.9	3-1	6-1
Auburn	114.7	113.4	116.3	114.8	1-3	4-3
Texas A&M	114.2	112.9	114.4	113.8	3-1	5-2
Ole Miss	103.8	103.4	104.1	103.7	1-2	5-2
Arkansas	100.3	97.8	99.2	99.1	0-4	1-6
SEC Averages	114.0	112.7	114.4	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	100.8	102.6	102.5	101.9	2-0	4-1
Troy	90.6	91.9	91.9	91.5	3-1	5-2
Georgia Southern	88.9	90.6	89.5	89.7	3-0	5-1
Georgia St.	79.2	81.2	80.0	80.1	1-1	2-4
Coastal Carolina	75.7	78.2	76.1	76.7	1-2	3-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	86.7	88.0	88.1	87.6	0-2	3-3
Louisiana	81.7	83.9	82.8	82.8	2-1	3-3
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.5	82.8	82.6	1-2	3-4
South Alabama	76.4	78.3	77.0	77.2	2-2	2-5
Texas State	71.3	74.2	71.1	72.2	0-3	1-5
Sun Belt Averages	83.4	85.1	84.2	84.2

 

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.0	112.7	114.4	113.7
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.1	107.6	108.6	108.4
5	P-12	107.5	106.2	107.3	107.0
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
7	IND	94.5	94.8	94.7	94.7
8	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.4	85.1	84.2	84.2

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Note: We revised these early Monday morning.  Multiple sites have listed different bowl tie-ins.  We visited each bowl’s home page to verify the correct alignments and made the appropriate changes.

Additionally, our bowl projections differ from most others because we make assumptions on future games.  For instance, all other major bowl projections have Ohio State in the Playoff today.  We believe the Buckeyes are going to lose a game before the end of the regular season and fall to 5th or 6th in the final poll.  Central Florida is listed as the top Group of 5 team and placed in a New Year’s 6 Bowl, but we believe they will lose and fall behind others.  Currently, we forecast Fresno State to end up in this spot.

Here are the revised bowl & playoff projections.

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Utah
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana-Monroe
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Tulane	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Cincinnati	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	[Southern Miss.]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Minnesota	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Toledo]	Michigan St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Louisiana]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Mississippi St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia Tech	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Nevada	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	North Carolina St.
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	[Colorado]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	Stanford
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Auburn
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Purdue	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Fresno St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Clemson	Notre Dame
Orange			Alabama	Texas
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

There Is Really Only One Team That Can Beat Alabama

The Alabama Crimson Tide currently sits almost one touchdown ahead of the number two Clemson Tigers, but can this Clemson team defeat Alabama?  The answer to that question is probably not, with a qualification.  If Tua Tagovailoa’s knee injury issues were to force him to miss games, then maybe Clemson or Ohio State could make a close game of it.  However, when Tua is healthy, there is only one team that can beat the top-ranked Tide.  That team is: Alabama.

Unless Alabama has a total meltdown, the Tide should win every game by double digits.  Let’s take a look at the moment at Alabama through seven games compared to some great teams from the PiRate Ratings era (1969-Present) that ran the table and won the national championship.

Team	Year	PPG	Opp	Rush	Opp	Pass	Opp	Yds	Opp
Alabama	2018	54	15	217	127	350	190	567	317
Alabama	2009	32	12	215	78	188	166	403	244
Texas	2005	50	16	275	131	237	172	512	303
USC	2004	38	13	177	79	272	200	449	279
Miami (Fla.)	2001	43	10	205	133	250	138	455	271
Oklahoma	2000	37	15	135	108	295	171	430	279
Florida St.	1999	38	17	124	99	303	206	427	305
Nebraska	1997	47	17	393	73	121	184	514	257
Nebraska	1995	53	15	400	78	157	216	557	294
Alabama	1992	28	9	209	55	154	139	363	194
Miami (Fla.)	1991	32	8	146	132	295	157	441	289
Washington	1991	41	10	232	67	240	170	472	237
Alabama	1979	32	6	345	102	84	78	429	180
Notre Dame	1973	35	8	350	82	111	119	461	201
USC	1972	39	11	247	110	185	132	432	242
Nebraska	1971	39	8	253	98	178	112	431	210
Texas	1969	40	11	363	90	109	136	472	226
Mystery	Team	46	9	319	77	189	185	508	262

I’ll mention that mystery team in a moment.  Let’s look at Alabama’s stats so far.  The Crimson Tide is averaging 54 points per game and giving up 15.  For the most part, the starters have rarely played in the fourth quarter of any game and some have not played in the second half.

This Tide team is unstoppable on offense, as they can still ram through defenses and break through for large rushing gains, but now they have the best quarterback in the nation.  Tagovailoa is drawing comparisons to Steve Young, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson.  For older folks, he’s like a combination of Daryle Lamonica and Tobin Rote.  In a day when few teams average more than 10-11 yards per completion, Tagovailoa is averaging more than 14 yards per attempt!

The only knock against Alabama so far this year is that they have played a rather weak schedule.  However, the Tide quickly dismissed the good teams they have faced.  They beat Texas A&M by more than three touchdowns, while Clemson had to sneak by the Aggies.  They beat Ole Miss by 55 and Missouri by 29.

The Crimson Tide still has games to play against LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn, but we don’t expect any of the three to beat ‘Bama.  LSU will be the toughest test prior to the SEC Championship Game.  With Georgia losing to LSU, and with Florida and Kentucky still on the Bulldogs’ schedule, there is no guarantee that Georgia will even make the SEC Championship Game.

If Alabama runs the table, they will play the #4 seed in the Semifinal Game of the Playoffs.  As of today, it looks like the #4 seed will be a one-loss team, from Among Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Michigan, and remotely Washington St. or Oregon.  None of these teams will challenge the Tide.

The Championship Game might pit Clemson against ‘Bama again.  It could be Alabama and Ohio State, but we have a suspicion that the Buckeyes will lose one game this year, either to Purdue this weekend, Michigan State, or Michigan.  There really isn’t a team other than maybe Clemson that can compete with Alabama this year.  For the Crimson Tide to lose, they will have to beat themselves.

Now to the Mystery Team  

The Mystery Team had drawn comparisons to the great Army teams with Glenn Davis and Felix Blanchard.  They had been compared to the great Oklahoma team that won 47 games in a row.  In fact, the Mystery Team had won 22 games in a row

What you are looking at is an undefeated team with the closest win being 27 points.  This Mystery Team beat the #10 team by four touchdowns and the #19 team by 33 points.

But, there’s a catch.  This team was undefeated with these gaudy stats with one game left to play.  They only needed to win their final game of the year against a team they had defeated by more than five touchdowns the year before.

This team was called by its coach, a Hall of Famer with prior national titles as his best ever.  Did this team beat itself?  No, not exactly.  The prior year’s team cost this Mystery Team its for sure national championship.

This team is Ohio State in 1969.  Through eight games, the Buckeyes did what Alabama is doing this year.  They never trailed for even one second of the season going into the final game against Michigan.  A 41-14 win over Washington in Seattle was their closest game to date, and they entered this game as a 17-point favorite over the 7-2 and 12th-ranked Wolverines at the Big House.

The year before Ohio State beat Michigan 50-14.  The Buckeyes had tried for two when they were up 43-14 and missed, and then they added another touchdown late to hit the half-century mark.  For the next season, first year Michigan coach Bo Schembechler made sure his returning players remembered that game.  The number 50 was plastered everywhere a Wolverine football player could find himself in the athletic facility.  Practice uniforms had the number 50.

Ohio State began the 1969 game like they had the previous eight games.  They returned the opening kick past the 40 yard line, and then on the first scrimmage play, quarterback Rex Kern scrambled for 25 yards to put the Buckeyes close to the Michigan 30.  Bruising fullback Jim Otis carried wide on a sweep, then off-tackle, then up the middle twice in a row to give Ohio State a first down at the Michigan 20.  Otis appeared to make it a first and goal a few plays later, but OSU was called for a false start.  On 4th and short, Michigan made the first big play of the drive stopping the Scarlet and Gray inches short of a first down.

Michigan could not do anything with the ball and punted after three plays.  Ohio State roared right back.  Michigan punted, and Ohio State punt returner Larry Zelina returned it almost back to where Michigan had punted.  It was a quick and easy five play drive for a touchdown, and the Buckeyes led 6-0.  PATs were not automatic in those days, and the OSU extra point was missed.

At this point, it looked like the blowout was on.  However, the Michigan players were not about to let Ohio State do to them in Ann Arbor what had happened a year earlier in Columbus.  Michigan drove the ball on a 10-play drive for a touchdown, and when behemoth kicker Frank Titas hit the PAT, Ohio State trailed for the first time all season, even if it was just 7-6.

Ohio State did what Woody Hayes’ teams did best.  On the next possession, they drove almost 75 yards in 10 plays to retake the lead on a pass from Kern to end Jan White.  On a 2-point try, Kern was sacked before he could pass the ball, and Ohio State led 12-7.  The Buckeyes would not score another point in 1969.

Michigan came alive and quickly drove for the go-ahead score to take a 14-12 lead.  Before the half was done, the Wolverines would put the game away.  After Ohio State was forced to punt, Barry Pierson almost returned it to the house, being knocked down just short of the goal.  Michigan scored a couple of plays later and led 21-12 near the middle of the quarter.  Following a nice Ohio State drive that stalled, Coach Hayes elected to try to make a 53-yard field goal, as in those days, a missed field goal that did not get returned was a touchback.  The kick was way short, and Michigan had the ball once again.  A nice drive could consume the clock, but Schembechler was interested in more.

Michigan calmly killed the clock, but they did so by driving 80 yard for the apparent killing touchdown.  The score was overturned by a penalty.  A short field goal made it 24-12 Wolverines, and that’s how the score stayed the rest of the day.

In the second half, Pierson, the punt returner that set up the go ahead touchdown was the leading receiver for Ohio State.  He intercepted three Buckeye passes, as quarterbacks Kern and Ron Maciejowski threw a combined six picks.  Ohio State didn’t threaten to score any more touchdowns, missing a couple of long field goals.  Michigan played conservatively letting the Buckeyes make mistakes, and the greatest Ohio State team in modern history finished the season 8-1.

Here’s the thing.  In this era, the Big Ten was not bowl friendly.  The champion of the league earned a Rose Bowl bid, but there was a rule that a team could not make consecutive trips to the Rose Bowl.  Had Ohio State beaten Michigan, they would have been 9-0 with no bowl game.  Michigan, at 7-3, would have been picked to go in their place.  However, Schembechler had told his team that if they lost to the Buckeyes, he would decline the Rose Bowl bid.  Third place Purdue would have faced USC instead.

Michigan did win, and the Wolverines headed to Pasadena to play a 9-0-1 USC team that had tied Notre Dame.  On the night before the game, Schembechler suffered a heart attack and did not coach in the game.  Assistant Jim Young became acting head coach, and Michigan played lethargically, losing to USC 10-3.  It was the first time Michigan had ever lost a bowl game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PiRate Ratings Selections for October 9-15, 2018

We’ve read your comments.  A couple dozen came in over the weekend telling us to defer to the Land Sharps.  Yes, all five of our guest selectors now have winning records for the season.  You heard that right.  Very few amateur handicappers can sustain a winning record against the spread plus the vigorish over the course of a couple of weeks, yet all five of our Land Sharps have done so after 6 weeks of the season.

As for your official PiRate picks, don’t ask.  We are suffering through a malaise, so by popular demand, we will present the Land Sharp picks first and then follow with our ridiculous 25 selections for the week.  We are going to just toss all the darts at once and hope 13 or more stick to the board.

You may notice that we are presenting this feature a day early this week.  There is a valid reason.  There is a Tuesday night college game, and one Sharp selected it.

This Week’s Sharps’ Selections

Cal Gal Tiffany

Season: 22-11 66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 30.0%

Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU

 

Buckeye Michelle

Season: 16-8-1  66.7% vs. the Spread with ROI of 28.8%

Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC
UTSA +13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
South Carolina +3 vs. Texas A&M
Kansas St. +7 vs. Oklahoma St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Season: 15-9-1  62.5% vs. the Spread with ROI of 20.4%

Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. UNC
Fresno State -19 vs. Wyoming
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Utah State -24 vs. UNLV
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska

 

Stewed Meat

Season: 16-13  55.2% vs. the Spread with ROI of 5.9%

Arkansas St. +10 1/2 vs. Appalachian St.
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn
Arizona +14 vs. Utah
Georgia -7 vs. LSU
Oregon +3 1/2 vs. Washington
Baylor +14 1/2 vs. Texas
Illinois +10 1/2 vs. Purdue
Central Florida -4 1/2 vs. Memphis
New Mexico Pk. vs. Colorado St.

 

Dean615

Season: 10-9  52.6% vs. the Spread with ROI of 0.5%

Notre Dame -20 1/2 vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa -4 1/2 vs. Indiana
Florida -7 vs. Vanderbilt
Texas Tech +7 1/2 vs. TCU
Tennessee +15 1/2 vs. Auburn

 

The Official PiRate Ratings Selections

We are going with an astronomical 25 selections this week, because we keep choosing about 7 each week out of 25 that we like, and we keep choosing the wrong 7.  So, we are going with every selection we liked, since so many we didn’t choose in recent weeks were winners.

Picks vs. the Spread

Ole Miss -6 vs. Arkansas
Hawaii +14 1/2 vs. BYU
Coastal Carolina -4 1/2 vs. UL-Monroe
Central Florida -4 vs. Memphis
Virginia Tech -5 1/2 vs. North Carolina
Northwestern -4 vs. Nebraska
Washington -3 vs. Oregon
Penn St. -13 1/2 vs. Michigan St.
Army -14 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Georgia Southern -16 1/2 vs. Texas St.
UTSA + 13 1/2 vs. Louisiana Tech
Colorado +7 1/2 vs. USC

10-point Teasers

All 3-game parlays at 11-10

Alabama -18 vs. Missouri
Tennessee +26 1/2 vs. Auburn
Hawaii +24 1/2 vs. BYU

Boston College -3 1/2 vs. Louisville
New Mexico +11 1/2 vs. Colorado St.
Eastern Michigan +11 1/2 vs. Toledo

Duke +12 vs. Georgia Tech
Iowa St. +17 vs. West Virginia
Georgia +3 vs. LSU

Maryland -14 vs. Rutgers
Miami (O) -1/2 vs. Kent St.
Northwestern +6 vs. Nebraska

Ohio St. -19 1/2 vs. Minnesota
UAB -6 vs. Rice
San Diego St.  Pk vs. Air Force

Army -4 1/2 vs. San Jose St.
Texas A&M +8 vs. South Carolina
Texas -4 vs. Baylor

Arizona +24 vs. Utah
Florida +3 vs. Vanderbilt
Miami (Fla.) +4 vs. Virginia

 

Money Line Parlays

@ +191 $100 invested would return $291 with a win

Northwestern over Nebraska  
UAB over Rice  
South Florida over Tulsa 
Boston College over Louisville 

 

@+175 $100 invested would return $275 with a win

Central Florida over Memphis
San Diego St. over Air Force 
Buffalo over Akron 
Texas over Baylor

 

@+151 $100 invested would return $251 with a win

Florida over Vanderbilt 
Western Michigan over Bowling Green 
Georgia over LSU  
Army over San Jose St.

 

NFL 10-point Teasers	(Totals)	@11-10	3-game parlays
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	34	Over
Arizona	Minnesota	33	Over
Carolina	Washington	35	Over
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Indianapolis	N.Y. Jets	35	Over
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	63	Under
L.A. Chargers	Cleveland	33.5	Over
Team	Team	Total	Pick
Chicago	Miami	32	Over
Jacksonville	Dallas	30	Over
San Francisco	Green Bay	36	Over

 

NOTE: All wagers are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  These are imaginary currencies invested in imaginary books.  We do not bet on these games.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, these are not the actual picks Stewed has invested real currency at a real book in Nevada. 

Stewed is fortunate enough to receive the “Outlaw Line” before the Opening Line is issued.  Stewed’s real strategy is to isolate odds that are off by at least 3 points and then play both sides of the key games. 

For instance, if Team A is a 14 1/2 point favorite on the late Saturday night Outlaw Line, and Stewed believes the true spread should be 11, Stewed will put a 5-figure wager on Team B at +14 1/2.  Then, after the opening line is listed at 12 because Stewed and other Sharps knew better, and then when the line lowers to 11 because many in the general public also think they know better, Stewed wagers the same 5-figure amount on Team A at -11. 

If the actual game score comes in at 12, 13, or 14 (three very frequent game spreads), Stewed wins both wagers and makes a lot of profit.  Otherwise, Stewed will win one of the two wagers, unless the spread is exactly 11 points, in which Stewed wins one wager and pushes on the other.  All Stewed needs to do to turn a profit is to have a game come between the two spreads 1 out of every 19 games.  This is wagering with a margin of safety that none of the rest of us amateurs can do.

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	October 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arkansas St.	Appalachian St.	-6.3	-6.6	-6.1

 

Thursday	October 11
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	Texas Tech	7.5	7.8	7.6
Texas St.	Georgia Southern	-17.3	-15.9	-18.5

 

Friday	October 12
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulsa	South Florida	-4.8	-8.0	-4.8
Utah	Arizona	15.0	14.9	15.3
San Diego St.	Air Force	10.9	10.7	12.2

 

Saturday	October 13
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boston College	Louisville	22.4	20.0	23.1
Virginia	Miami (Fla.)	-9.9	-8.1	-10.5
Eastern Michigan	Toledo	-1.7	-1.5	-0.8
South Carolina	Texas A&M	1.7	2.0	1.5
Coastal Carolina	Louisiana-Monroe	2.3	5.2	2.6
Illinois	Purdue	-11.6	-10.2	-12.1
Central Michigan	Ball St.	3.8	4.1	4.6
Georgia Tech	Duke	1.4	2.7	1.7
Maryland	Rutgers	22.8	22.3	23.8
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	-11.1	-11.3	-11.7
Charlotte	Western Kentucky	-7.0	-8.1	-8.3
East Carolina	Houston	-16.9	-17.7	-17.5
Buffalo	Akron	8.0	8.9	8.6
Old Dominion	Marshall	-6.6	-5.5	-7.8
Florida Int’l.	Middle Tennessee	0.6	3.4	0.2
Miami (O)	Kent St.	15.2	15.8	18.0
Utah St.	UNLV	23.9	23.7	24.8
Colorado St.	New Mexico	-1.5	-2.2	-1.7
Liberty	Troy	-9.3	-11.8	-10.8
Notre Dame	Pittsburgh	28.3	26.1	28.3
USC	Colorado	8.6	5.4	6.6
San Jose St.	Army	-21.7	-21.5	-23.7
Oregon	Washington	-7.7	-5.5	-8.5
Northern Illinois	Ohio U	5.3	5.0	4.7
UTSA	Louisiana Tech	-10.9	-8.8	-11.3
Bowling Green	Western Michigan	-9.1	-10.9	-10.2
Arkansas	Ole Miss	-0.3	-2.3	-1.5
Michigan	Wisconsin	9.6	10.9	10.3
Ohio St.	Minnesota	29.2	27.9	30.0
Navy	Temple	-8.5	-6.3	-10.0
Iowa St.	West Virginia	-0.5	-1.2	-0.2
North Texas	Southern Miss.	17.8	17.1	17.9
Northwestern	Nebraska	20.1	19.8	22.3
Indiana	Iowa	-11.4	-10.1	-10.9
Memphis	Central Florida	-10.2	-8.5	-9.9
Auburn	Tennessee	24.5	22.7	26.8
Texas	Baylor	13.3	13.9	13.4
Alabama	Missouri	28.3	27.8	28.9
Vanderbilt	Florida	-11.7	-9.6	-12.9
Kansas St.	Oklahoma St.	-5.7	-5.4	-6.8
Rice	UAB	-20.8	-20.6	-23.2
LSU	Georgia	-13.1	-9.8	-13.1
Louisiana	New Mexico St.	5.7	5.8	6.3
Penn St.	Michigan St.	10.3	9.7	11.4
BYU	Hawaii	21.5	19.7	23.0
California	UCLA	13.8	11.5	15.6
Fresno St.	Wyoming	19.1	18.1	20.1
Nevada	Boise St.	-17.5	-17.1	-18.3

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
South Alabama	Alabama St.	29.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings 

All PiRate Ratings are Predictive and not Retrodictive Rankings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.1	138.0	141.7	139.9
2	Clemson	133.6	131.0	134.1	132.9
3	Georgia	131.0	127.7	132.0	130.2
4	Ohio St.	128.7	126.6	129.2	128.2
5	Notre Dame	125.8	122.9	125.0	124.5
6	Washington	123.9	121.8	125.4	123.7
7	Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4
8	Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1
9	Oklahoma	119.4	118.0	119.7	119.0
10	Mississippi St.	119.6	117.1	120.3	119.0
11	Auburn	118.2	116.9	119.8	118.3
12	Miami	117.0	115.6	116.7	116.5
13	Wisconsin	117.2	114.5	116.7	116.1
14	Michigan St.	116.5	114.4	115.8	115.6
15	Central Florida	115.1	115.2	115.6	115.3
16	L S U	114.9	114.9	115.9	115.2
17	Missouri	114.8	113.2	115.8	114.6
18	Florida	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4
19	Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2
20	N. Carolina St.	114.2	113.6	114.1	114.0
21	West Virginia	114.5	113.6	113.8	113.9
22	Stanford	114.8	112.1	114.8	113.9
23	Utah	114.1	112.3	114.8	113.8
24	Boston College	114.5	111.9	114.1	113.5
25	Iowa	114.4	112.2	113.8	113.5
26	Oregon	113.2	113.2	113.9	113.4
27	Texas	113.9	112.6	113.6	113.3
28	Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2
29	Duke	114.1	111.8	113.5	113.2
30	Virginia Tech	113.1	112.2	112.9	112.7
31	T C U	113.2	112.2	112.0	112.4
32	Northwestern	112.8	111.1	113.0	112.3
33	Georgia Tech	112.4	111.5	112.2	112.1
34	S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.2	112.0
35	Boise St.	111.4	110.8	111.8	111.3
36	Oklahoma St.	111.7	109.9	111.7	111.1
37	Fresno St.	110.6	109.5	110.9	110.4
38	Iowa State	111.0	109.3	110.6	110.3
39	Syracuse	109.6	108.2	108.8	108.9
40	U S C	109.7	107.9	108.9	108.8
41	Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7
42	Texas Tech	108.7	107.3	107.4	107.8
43	Purdue	107.8	106.2	107.4	107.1
44	Arizona St.	107.6	106.3	107.2	107.0
45	Utah St.	106.1	107.4	107.5	107.0
46	Florida St.	107.1	106.5	106.8	106.8
47	California	107.3	104.8	106.7	106.3
48	Colorado	104.1	105.6	105.3	105.0
49	Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0
50	Virginia	104.1	104.6	103.2	104.0
51	Ole Miss	103.7	103.3	103.9	103.6
52	San Diego St.	102.8	103.1	103.9	103.2
53	Houston	102.9	103.5	103.1	103.2
54	Army	102.5	103.1	102.7	102.8
55	Memphis	101.9	103.7	102.7	102.8
56	Temple	102.4	102.4	103.3	102.7
57	Minnesota	102.5	101.7	102.2	102.1
58	Kansas St.	103.0	101.5	101.8	102.1
59	Wake Forest	103.5	101.1	101.2	101.9
60	Baylor	102.6	100.7	102.1	101.8
61	Arizona	102.2	100.5	102.5	101.7
62	N. Texas	99.6	102.0	100.4	100.6
63	Vanderbilt	100.4	100.8	100.3	100.5
64	BYU	99.9	100.2	100.5	100.2
65	Pittsburgh	100.4	99.8	99.6	100.0
66	Indiana	100.0	99.2	99.8	99.7
67	South Florida	98.6	100.8	98.9	99.4
68	Appalachian St.	98.4	100.1	99.9	99.4
69	Arkansas	100.4	97.9	99.4	99.2
70	Cincinnati	97.9	99.5	98.3	98.5
71	N. Carolina	99.0	97.9	98.2	98.4
72	Kansas	98.9	97.5	97.2	97.9
73	Buffalo	96.8	98.9	97.8	97.8
74	Toledo	97.4	98.5	97.1	97.7
75	Florida Atlantic	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4
76	Tennessee	96.7	97.1	96.0	96.6
77	U C L A	96.5	96.3	94.1	95.6
78	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.7	94.8	95.2
79	Air Force	94.9	95.4	94.7	95.0
80	Louisville	95.1	94.9	94.1	94.7
81	Nebraska	95.8	94.3	93.7	94.6
82	Wyoming	94.6	94.5	93.9	94.3
83	Tulane	94.2	94.6	94.0	94.3
84	Louisiana Tech	93.0	95.3	94.3	94.2
85	Illinois	94.2	94.0	93.4	93.9
86	Eastern Michigan	93.2	94.5	93.8	93.8
87	Marshall	92.5	95.0	93.3	93.6
88	U A B	92.3	94.7	92.9	93.3
89	Ohio U	92.6	93.8	93.1	93.2
90	Troy	92.1	93.6	93.6	93.1
91	Western Michigan	92.0	93.8	93.1	93.0
92	Miami (O)	91.6	93.3	94.0	93.0
93	Middle Tennessee	91.9	93.2	93.1	92.7
94	Akron	91.7	93.0	92.2	92.3
95	Navy	91.4	93.6	90.8	92.0
96	SMU	91.8	91.2	90.8	91.3
97	Florida Int’l.	89.5	93.6	90.3	91.1
98	Georgia Southern	90.0	91.6	90.8	90.8
99	Nevada	90.9	90.6	90.5	90.7
100	Tulsa	90.8	89.8	91.1	90.6
101	Arkansas St.	89.1	90.5	90.7	90.1
102	New Mexico	88.7	90.3	88.8	89.3
103	Central Michigan	85.4	87.9	85.9	86.4
104	Southern Miss.	84.7	87.8	85.5	86.0
105	U N L V	85.2	86.7	85.6	85.8
106	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.3	85.3	85.6
107	Oregon St.	86.6	84.2	84.8	85.2
108	Ball St.	84.1	86.4	83.8	84.8
109	Old Dominion	83.4	87.0	83.0	84.5
110	Colo. State	84.2	85.1	84.1	84.5
111	Massachusetts	83.2	85.1	84.1	84.1
112	Rutgers	85.0	84.0	83.1	84.0
113	East Carolina	83.0	82.8	82.6	82.8
114	Hawaii	82.4	84.5	81.5	82.8
115	U T S A	79.1	83.5	79.9	80.9
116	Bowling Green	80.4	80.5	80.4	80.4
117	Coastal Carolina	78.9	81.7	79.5	80.0
118	Georgia St.	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9
119	Louisiana	78.9	81.0	79.9	79.9
120	Liberty	79.8	78.8	79.8	79.5
121	UL-Monroe	79.1	79.0	79.4	79.2
122	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.5	79.1
123	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.8	77.0
124	N. Mexico St.	76.2	78.2	76.5	77.0
125	San Jose St.	77.3	78.1	75.5	77.0
126	Charlotte	74.6	76.8	74.5	75.3
127	Connecticut	73.3	73.6	71.9	72.9
128	U T E P	71.1	74.2	70.5	71.9
129	Texas State	70.2	73.2	69.8	71.1
130	Rice	69.0	71.6	67.2	69.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	115.1	115.2	115.6	115.3	2-0	5-0
Temple	102.4	102.4	103.3	102.7	2-0	3-3
South Florida	98.6	100.8	98.9	99.4	1-0	5-0
Cincinnati	97.9	99.5	98.3	98.5	2-0	6-0
East Carolina	83.0	82.8	82.6	82.8	0-2	2-3
Connecticut	73.3	73.6	71.9	72.9	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	102.9	103.5	103.1	103.2	1-0	4-1
Memphis	101.9	103.7	102.7	102.8	1-2	4-2
Tulane	94.2	94.6	94.0	94.3	1-1	2-4
Navy	91.4	93.6	90.8	92.0	1-1	2-3
SMU	91.8	91.2	90.8	91.3	1-1	2-4
Tulsa	90.8	89.8	91.1	90.6	0-2	1-4
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.6	131.0	134.1	132.9	3-0	6-0
N. Carolina St.	114.2	113.6	114.1	114.0	1-0	5-0
Boston College	114.5	111.9	114.1	113.5	1-1	4-2
Syracuse	109.6	108.2	108.8	108.9	1-2	4-2
Florida St.	107.1	106.5	106.8	106.8	1-3	3-3
Wake Forest	103.5	101.1	101.2	101.9	0-2	3-3
Louisville	95.1	94.9	94.1	94.7	0-3	2-4
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	117.0	115.6	116.7	116.5	2-0	5-1
Duke	114.1	111.8	113.5	113.2	0-1	4-1
Virginia Tech	113.1	112.2	112.9	112.7	2-0	3-2
Georgia Tech	112.4	111.5	112.2	112.1	1-2	3-3
Virginia	104.1	104.6	103.2	104.0	1-1	3-2
Pittsburgh	100.4	99.8	99.6	100.0	2-1	3-3
N. Carolina	99.0	97.9	98.2	98.4	1-1	1-3
ACC Averages	109.8	108.6	109.3	109.2
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.4	118.0	119.7	119.0	2-1	5-1
West Virginia	114.5	113.6	113.8	113.9	3-0	5-0
Texas	113.9	112.6	113.6	113.3	3-0	5-1
T C U	113.2	112.2	112.0	112.4	1-1	3-2
Oklahoma St.	111.7	109.9	111.7	111.1	1-2	4-2
Iowa State	111.0	109.3	110.6	110.3	1-2	2-3
Texas Tech	108.7	107.3	107.4	107.8	1-1	3-2
Kansas St.	103.0	101.5	101.8	102.1	0-3	2-4
Baylor	102.6	100.7	102.1	101.8	2-1	4-2
Kansas	98.9	97.5	97.2	97.9	0-3	2-4
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	126.6	129.2	128.2	3-0	6-0
Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4	3-0	5-1
Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1	1-1	4-1
Michigan St.	116.5	114.4	115.8	115.6	2-1	3-2
Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0	1-1	3-2
Indiana	100.0	99.2	99.8	99.7	1-2	4-2
Rutgers	85.0	84.0	83.1	84.0	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.2	114.5	116.7	116.1	2-0	4-1
Iowa	114.4	112.2	113.8	113.5	1-1	4-1
Northwestern	112.8	111.1	113.0	112.3	2-1	2-3
Purdue	107.8	106.2	107.4	107.1	1-1	2-3
Minnesota	102.5	101.7	102.2	102.1	0-2	3-2
Nebraska	95.8	94.3	93.7	94.6	0-3	0-5
Illinois	94.2	94.0	93.4	93.9	1-1	3-2
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.6	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	97.7	97.6	97.4	1-1	3-3
Marshall	92.5	95.0	93.3	93.6	1-1	3-2
Middle Tennessee	91.9	93.2	93.1	92.7	2-0	3-2
Florida Int’l.	89.5	93.6	90.3	91.1	1-0	3-2
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.3	85.3	85.6	0-1	1-4
Old Dominion	83.4	87.0	83.0	84.5	0-3	1-5
Charlotte	74.6	76.8	74.5	75.3	1-1	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	99.6	102.0	100.4	100.6	1-1	5-1
Louisiana Tech	93.0	95.3	94.3	94.2	1-1	3-2
U A B	92.3	94.7	92.9	93.3	2-0	4-1
Southern Miss.	84.7	87.8	85.5	86.0	1-0	2-2
U T S A	79.1	83.5	79.9	80.9	2-0	3-3
U T E P	71.1	74.2	70.5	71.9	0-2	0-6
Rice	69.0	71.6	67.2	69.3	0-2	1-5
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.6	86.3	86.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	125.8	122.9	125.0	124.5	x	6-0
Army	102.5	103.1	102.7	102.8	x	3-2
BYU	99.9	100.2	100.5	100.2	x	3-3
Massachusetts	83.2	85.1	84.1	84.1	x	2-5
Liberty	79.8	78.8	79.8	79.5	x	2-3
N. Mexico St.	76.2	78.2	76.5	77.0	x	2-4
Independents Averages	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	96.8	98.9	97.8	97.8	2-0	5-1
Ohio U	92.6	93.8	93.1	93.2	1-0	3-2
Miami (O)	91.6	93.3	94.0	93.0	2-1	2-4
Akron	91.7	93.0	92.2	92.3	0-1	2-2
Bowling Green	80.4	80.5	80.4	80.4	0-2	1-5
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.5	79.1	0-2	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.4	98.5	97.1	97.7	1-0	3-2
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.7	94.8	95.2	3-0	3-3
Eastern Michigan	93.2	94.5	93.8	93.8	0-3	2-4
Western Michigan	92.0	93.8	93.1	93.0	2-0	4-2
Central Michigan	85.4	87.9	85.9	86.4	0-2	1-5
Ball St.	84.1	86.4	83.8	84.8	1-1	2-4
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.4	110.8	111.8	111.3	1-1	3-2
Utah St.	106.1	107.4	107.5	107.0	1-0	4-1
Air Force	94.9	95.4	94.7	95.0	0-2	2-3
Wyoming	94.6	94.5	93.9	94.3	0-2	2-4
New Mexico	88.7	90.3	88.8	89.3	1-0	3-2
Colo. State	84.2	85.1	84.1	84.5	1-1	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.6	109.5	110.9	110.4	1-0	4-1
San Diego St.	102.8	103.1	103.9	103.2	1-0	4-1
Nevada	90.9	90.6	90.5	90.7	1-1	3-3
U N L V	85.2	86.7	85.6	85.8	0-1	2-3
Hawaii	82.4	84.5	81.5	82.8	3-0	6-1
San Jose St.	77.3	78.1	75.5	77.0	0-2	0-5
MWC Averages	94.1	94.7	94.1	94.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	123.9	121.8	125.4	123.7	3-0	5-1
Stanford	114.8	112.1	114.8	113.9	2-1	4-2
Oregon	113.2	113.2	113.9	113.4	1-1	4-1
Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7	2-1	5-1
California	107.3	104.8	106.7	106.3	0-2	3-2
Oregon St.	86.6	84.2	84.8	85.2	0-3	1-5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	114.1	112.3	114.8	113.8	1-2	3-2
U S C	109.7	107.9	108.9	108.8	2-1	3-2
Arizona St.	107.6	106.3	107.2	107.0	1-2	3-3
Colorado	104.1	105.6	105.3	105.0	2-0	5-0
Arizona	102.2	100.5	102.5	101.7	2-1	3-3
U C L A	96.5	96.3	94.1	95.6	0-2	0-5
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.0	127.7	132.0	130.2	4-0	6-0
Missouri	114.8	113.2	115.8	114.6	0-2	3-2
Florida	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4	3-1	5-1
Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2	3-1	5-1
S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.2	112.0	2-2	3-2
Vanderbilt	100.4	100.8	100.3	100.5	0-2	3-3
Tennessee	96.7	97.1	96.0	96.6	0-2	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.1	138.0	141.7	139.9	3-0	6-0
Mississippi St.	119.6	117.1	120.3	119.0	1-2	4-2
Auburn	118.2	116.9	119.8	118.3	1-2	4-2
L S U	114.9	114.9	115.9	115.2	2-1	5-1
Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2	2-1	4-2
Ole Miss	103.7	103.3	103.9	103.6	0-2	4-2
Arkansas	100.4	97.9	99.4	99.2	0-3	1-5
SEC Averages	113.9	112.6	114.4	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.4	100.1	99.9	99.4	1-0	3-1
Troy	92.1	93.6	93.6	93.1	3-0	5-1
Georgia Southern	90.0	91.6	90.8	90.8	2-0	4-1
Coastal Carolina	78.9	81.7	79.5	80.0	1-1	3-2
Georgia St.	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9	1-1	2-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.1	90.5	90.7	90.1	0-1	3-2
Louisiana	78.9	81.0	79.9	79.9	1-1	2-3
UL-Monroe	79.1	79.0	79.4	79.2	0-2	2-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.8	77.0	1-2	1-5
Texas State	70.2	73.2	69.8	71.1	0-2	1-4
Sun Belt Averages	83.2	85.0	84.0	84.1

 

Rating the Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.9	112.6	114.4	113.6
2	ACC	109.8	108.6	109.3	109.2
3	B12	109.7	108.3	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.6	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
7	IND	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
8	MWC	94.1	94.7	94.1	94.3
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.8	88.6	86.3	86.9
11	SUN	83.2	85.0	84.0	84.1

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1	Central Florida
2	South Florida
3	Cincinnati
4	Fresno St.
5	San Diego St.

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Georgia Southern
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	San Diego St.	Colorado
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Florida Atlantic	Louisiana
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	UAB
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[BYU]	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	MIddle Tennessee
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[Army]	[Marshall]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Utah]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Arizona St.]	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Utah St.]	Michigan St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Nevada]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	USC
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Florida	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Duke
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	Washington St.
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oklahoma	Penn St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Ohio St.	Clemson
Orange			Alabama	Notre Dame
National Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Dozen Best TV Games

When we give the best games of the week, we are limiting the games to those scheduled for Saturday, and we are picking games that have some type of national attraction.  There are two excellent weeknight games that matter a lot for bowl bid possibilities in the Texas Tech-TCU game Thursday and the Arizona-Utah game on Friday.  However, many of you cannot watch late night games during the week, so we concentrate on Saturday games as the best games of the week, at least until the week of Thanksgiving.

Saturday, October 13

All times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM

Iowa at Indiana on ESPN2: This is not a bowl elimination game for either team, but if Indiana can pull off a home win over the Hawkeyes, it puts the Hoosiers in excellent shape to get to six wins.  The Music City Bowl in Nashville is an easy drive from the Hoosier State, and IU would be a great choice should the Big Ten go to Nashville rather than the Gator Bowl this year.  Iowa is still alive in the Big Ten West race, and with a win over the Hoosiers and a Wisconsin loss at Michigan, it could be a big weekend for the Hawkeyes.

 

Oklahoma St. at Kansas St. on ESPNU

This is a bowl elimination game for Kansas State.  The Wildcats are quickly running short on winnable games, and at 0-3/2-4, another loss at home almost guarantees that KSU will be staying home in December.  Oklahoma State has very little chance remaining to make the Big 12 Championship Game, and if the Cowboys lose this game, it could make going 6-6 a very difficult task if not impossible.  Both teams should fight tooth and nail in this game.

 

Tennessee at Auburn on SECn

On the surface, this should be a cake walk game for Auburn, but we tend to think this game is going to be a tough one for the Tigers to win.  Tennessee had a bye week and thus had two weeks to prepare for this game.  The Vols have played better than their record to date, but they have made too many costly mistakes at the wrong time.  Two weeks of practice tend to allow a coach to iron out the kinks.

Auburn cannot run the ball this year.  The Tigers have been one dimensional, and they failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Mississippi St.  Tennessee’s defense is probably as good as Southern Mississippi’s defense, and Auburn may find it hard to score any more than 21 points in this game.  If the Vols can generate a few big plays for once, this game could be very close in the fourth quarter.  All it takes is for the ball to bounce right once for the Vols, and Jeremy Pruitt could leave his home state very happy.

 

12:20 PM

Duke at Georgia Tech on ACCn

Can Duke stop the option enough times to hold Georgia Tech under 30 points?  Can Georgia Tech stop the passing game enough times to hold Duke under 30 points?  Duke has already played Army this year and faced the option attack.  Georgia Tech has already faced a pass happy offense twice.  Duke’s results were better than Tech’s but this game is still a pure toss-up, and the winner emerges as a solid bowl opportunist, while the loser has to start looking for an upset win somewhere in the future.

 

3:30 PM 

Baylor at Texas on ESPN

Had both teams lost this past weekend, Texas would have been an easy favorite in this game.  However, both teams pulled off upsets; Texas survived against Oklahoma, and Baylor won a tough game over Kansas State.

Now, both teams look like sure bowl teams.  Texas has now moved up to co-favorite status to win the regular season title.  However, this is a big trap game for the Longhorns.  They will not give Baylor the same respect they gave Oklahoma, and the UT players will hear all week during school how incredible they are.

Baylor has an incredible opportunity to make hay in the Big 12, as they play at West Virginia next week.  Chances are better than 50-50 the Bears will go 0-2, but there is a chance they can go 1-1 in these next two games.  Texas better be ready for a Lone Star Ambush on their home turf.

 

Georgia at LSU on CBS

Oh, what a great matchup this would have been had LSU beaten Florida! However, the Gators looked like the better team, and LSU’s win over Auburn doesn’t look so sexy now.

Georgia has a real opportunity to show the nation that the SEC truly does have the two best teams in the nation.  This could start to look like 1971 with Nebraska and Oklahoma, if the Bulldogs roll over the Tigers in their den.  A loss would virtually guarantee that the SEC would have just one playoff team this year.

 

Purdue at Illinois on BTN

Huh?  You say we must be nuts to list this as one of the top dozen games this week?  Here us out.  This is a bowl elimination game in the truest manner.  The loser of this game cannot finish 6-6.  The winner will still have work to do, but the victor will have a good shot at getting to six wins.  Illinois has a home game with Minnesota plus a game with Nebraska, so a win Saturday means that wins in those other two games would save Lovie Smith’s job and put the Illini in a minor bowl.

Purdue had that tough 0-3 start where they could have been 3-0.  Seldom does a mid-level team squander three games and get to a bowl, but if the Boilermakers can win this backyard rivalry game and get to 3-3, not only will they be in good shape to get to a bowl, PU could become a dark horse for the Big Ten West title!

 

Texas A&M at South Carolina on SECn

Both teams enter this game off impressive, hard-fought conference wins.  The winner of this game stays in contention for the Citrus Bowl bid, and even a slight chance at the Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.  The loser is reduced to Gator, Texas, Outback, and Belk Bowl contention.

 

Washington at Oregon on ABC or ESPN2 (most of the Western half of the US will get it on ABC)

With Stanford losing to Utah, the winner of this game takes a big lead in the Pac-12 North Standings.  This league is now basically in competition for the Rose Bowl, as any playoff chances would hinge on about 10 teams losing two more games.  In other words, it isn’t going to be for the West Coast this year.  The Rose Bowl is still a nice consolation, and to get there, you must first win your division.  It’s still a four-team race in the North.  An Oregon loss at home most likely eliminates the Ducks.  A win over the Huskies keeps this division tight with four contenders.

 

7:00 PM

West Virginia at Iowa St. on FS1

This may actually be the most exciting game of the day.  West Virginia brings its undefeated and playoff-contending team to Ames, where the Cyclones are sitting on a big win.  After Iowa State knocked off Oklahoma State, ISU will be entering this game sky high, and their fans will make this one loud on Will Grier.

If WVU can win this one on the road, they will deserve to be a contender for the playoffs.

 

7:30 PM

Wisconsin at Michigan on ABC

Wisconsin wins games by grinding out yards for four quarters by running the ball and then setting up potentially big play-action pass plays.  Michigan wins games by making life miserable on opponents’ running games.  This is a big test for the Wolverines. If they slow down the Badgers’ running game and beat Wisconsin in a defensive struggle in the neighborhood of 24-10, then the Maize and Blue just may have enough force to slow down that team down south from Ann Arbor at the end of the year.  If Jonathan Taylor tops 100 yards rushing and Wisconsin tops 20 points in this game, then Urban Meyer can already start preparing for the Orange or Cotton Bowl.

 

10:30 PM

Colorado at USC on FS1

We honestly do not believe that if Colorado were to run the table and win the Pac-12 Championship Game that they would make the playoffs at 13-0.  To be even more honest, we don’t believe the Buffaloes can win the Pac-12 South.  However, this game will be their first major test.  CU’s schedule is quite weak to date–wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and UCLA could have been replicated by most Power 5 teams.  The win over Arizona State was worthy, but the Buffs have only played one road game, and that one  was a very narrow win in Lincoln, a game they probably would have lost had Adrian Martinez not been injured.

USC’s loss to Texas doesn’t look as bad now, but they did lose to Stanford, and that one doesn’t look as good.  The Trojans might have enough power to win all their home conference games, and this one is in the Coliseum.  The winner takes control in the Pac-12 South race, and the Trojans should emerge victorious.

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 6

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday	October 4
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Tulsa	15.2	17.1	15.0
Troy	Georgia St.	16.2	15.3	16.8

 

Friday	October 5
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Marshall	Middle Tennesee	7.2	8.8	7.2
Louisville	Georgia Tech	-9.5	-8.4	-10.0
BYU	Utah St.	0.1	-0.9	-0.5

 

Saturday	October 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	11.5	11.0	11.3
Massachusetts	South Florida	-11.7	-11.8	-10.5
Wake Forest	Clemson	-19.6	-19.1	-22.5
Temple	East Carolina	15.0	15.0	15.9
Ball St.	Northern Illinois	-8.3	-6.7	-8.5
Pittsburgh	Syracuse	-7.4	-6.3	-7.6
Central Florida	SMU	26.2	26.8	27.6
Florida Atlantic	Old Dominion	16.2	12.7	16.7
Ohio St.	Indiana	33.1	31.6	34.2
North Carolina St.	Boston College	2.0	4.4	1.9
Florida	LSU	1.8	-0.4	1.4
South Carolina	Missouri	0.6	1.1	-1.0
Michigan	Maryland	21.9	22.1	23.2
Cincinnati	Tulane	3.6	4.9	4.1
Kent St.	Ohio U	-13.5	-13.8	-14.7
Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	1.1	1.7	1.4
Central Michigan	Buffalo	-8.7	-8.3	-9.3
Akron	Miami (O)	9.3	8.8	7.0
Virginia Tech	Notre Dame	-6.7	-4.1	-5.4
Rutgers	Illinois	-1.1	-1.7	-1.8
Boise St.	San Diego St.	17.5	16.4	17.2
Colorado	Arizona St.	-2.3	0.6	-1.1
New Mexico St.	Liberty	-3.2	0.2	-3.3
UTEP	North Texas	-32.0	-31.3	-33.5
UCLA	Washington	-27.8	-25.9	-32.5
Stanford	Utah	10.5	9.5	10.2
Nevada	Fresno St.	-16.5	-15.3	-16.8
Oregon St.	Washington St.	-20.0	-21.4	-21.0
Arizona	California	-3.1	-2.0	-2.3
UNLV	New Mexico	8.2	8.1	8.5
Michigan St.	Northwestern	13.3	13.2	12.8
West Virginia	Kansas	18.7	19.3	20.3
Arkansas	Alabama	-37.0	-37.3	-40.1
Louisiana Tech	UAB	8.6	8.8	9.7
Texas A&M	Kentucky	2.1	1.8	2.2
Oklahoma St.	Iowa St.	6.4	6.4	7.1
Georgia	Vanderbilt	33.8	29.8	35.0
Minnesota	Iowa	-6.5	-4.6	-5.8
Toledo	Bowling Green	19.9	21.3	20.0
Mississippi St.	Auburn	2.0	0.5	0.5
Air Force	Navy	-0.7	-3.0	-0.7
Ole Miss	UL-Monroe	22.0	21.7	22.0
Texas (n)	Oklahoma	-8.3	-8.4	-9.5
Memphis	Connecticut	28.9	30.4	30.9
Texas St.	Louisiana	-4.0	-2.7	-5.3
Rice	UTSA	-6.3	-7.7	-8.1
Baylor	Kansas St.	2.3	1.7	3.0
Miami (Fla.)	Florida St.	14.7	14.2	15.2
Wisconsin	Nebraska	26.8	25.8	29.0
San Jose St.	Colorado St.	-1.2	-1.2	-3.0
Hawaii	Wyoming	-11.6	-9.2	-12.3

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Note: The PiRate Ratings are predictive ratings.  While past results are a major factor, these are not rankings based on what the teams have done so far.  Some teams will be ranked ahead of teams that beat them.  We are only trying to rate the teams based on what they should do in their next game.  Thus, our goal is to beat the spread and pick winners rather than be a report card for each team.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.0	137.9	141.9	139.9
2	Georgia	131.1	127.6	132.1	130.2
3	Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0
4	Clemson	129.2	126.5	129.8	128.5
5	Washington	125.6	123.5	127.5	125.5
6	Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4
7	Penn St.	123.5	120.8	124.0	122.8
8	Notre Dame	124.1	120.9	123.0	122.6
9	Oklahoma	120.8	119.5	121.4	120.6
10	Auburn	119.4	118.3	121.3	119.7
11	Michigan St.	120.3	118.3	119.8	119.5
12	Miami	118.3	117.0	118.2	117.9
13	Mississippi St.	118.4	115.7	118.8	117.7
14	Wisconsin	118.4	115.8	118.2	117.5
15	Stanford	118.2	115.5	118.4	117.4
16	L S U	115.4	115.6	116.6	115.9
17	Central Florida	115.0	115.1	115.5	115.2
18	Missouri	114.8	113.2	116.0	114.6
19	Boise St.	114.3	113.6	114.9	114.3
20	Virginia Tech	114.4	113.8	114.5	114.2
21	Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2
22	West Virginia	114.5	113.7	114.1	114.1
23	Boston College	114.8	112.0	114.6	113.8
24	Florida	114.2	112.3	115.0	113.8
25	N. Carolina St.	113.8	113.4	113.5	113.6
26	Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2
27	Oregon	112.9	112.9	113.6	113.1
28	Duke	113.8	111.5	113.2	112.9
29	Oklahoma St.	113.2	111.5	113.4	112.7
30	T C U	112.9	111.9	111.7	112.1
31	Iowa	113.2	110.7	112.4	112.1
32	S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.0	111.9
33	Texas	112.5	111.1	111.9	111.8
34	Utah	110.7	108.9	111.2	110.3
35	Fresno St.	110.5	109.2	110.6	110.1
36	Georgia Tech	110.0	108.9	109.6	109.5
37	Syracuse	110.2	108.7	109.5	109.5
38	Northwestern	110.0	108.2	110.0	109.4
39	Iowa State	109.8	108.0	109.2	109.0
40	Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7
41	U S C	109.4	107.6	108.6	108.5
42	Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.2	107.9
43	Texas Tech	108.4	107.0	107.1	107.5
44	California	107.9	105.3	107.4	106.9
45	Purdue	107.5	105.9	107.1	106.8
46	Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7
47	Wake Forest	107.2	104.9	104.8	105.6
48	Utah St.	103.7	105.0	105.0	104.6
49	N. Texas	103.1	105.5	103.9	104.1
50	Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0
51	Colorado	103.1	104.7	104.2	104.0
52	Virginia	103.8	104.3	102.9	103.7
53	Minnesota	103.7	103.2	103.6	103.5
54	Houston	102.9	103.7	103.1	103.2
55	BYU	102.3	102.6	103.0	102.6
56	Army	102.3	102.9	102.5	102.6
57	Kansas St.	103.3	101.9	102.1	102.4
58	Baylor	102.6	100.6	102.1	101.8
59	Memphis	100.8	102.6	101.5	101.6
60	Ole Miss	101.7	101.3	101.9	101.6
61	Arizona	101.9	100.3	102.1	101.4
62	Vanderbilt	100.2	100.8	100.1	100.4
63	San Diego St.	99.8	100.2	100.7	100.2
64	Pittsburgh	99.8	99.3	98.9	99.4
65	Appalachian St.	98.1	99.8	99.6	99.1
66	Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.0	99.0
67	South Florida	98.2	100.3	98.2	98.9
68	Temple	98.7	98.6	99.4	98.9
69	Arkansas	100.1	97.6	98.8	98.8
70	N. Carolina	98.7	97.6	97.9	98.1
71	Toledo	97.6	98.9	97.5	98.0
72	Louisville	98.0	98.0	97.2	97.7
73	Buffalo	96.7	98.8	97.7	97.7
74	Kansas	98.8	97.3	96.8	97.6
75	Cincinnati	96.6	98.2	96.9	97.2
76	Florida Atlantic	96.8	97.2	97.2	97.1
77	Louisiana Tech	95.5	97.9	97.0	96.8
78	Tennessee	96.4	96.8	95.7	96.3
79	Navy	95.5	98.0	95.1	96.2
80	Wyoming	96.3	96.1	95.9	96.1
81	Marshall	94.3	97.0	95.3	95.6
82	Tulane	95.4	95.8	95.3	95.5
83	Akron	94.9	96.1	95.2	95.4
84	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.6	94.8	95.1
85	Ohio U	93.9	95.2	94.6	94.6
86	Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.6	94.0	94.0
87	U C L A	94.8	94.6	92.0	93.8
88	Nebraska	94.6	93.0	92.2	93.2
89	Troy	92.1	93.5	93.6	93.1
90	Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9
91	Air Force	91.8	92.0	91.4	91.7
92	Illinois	91.8	91.5	90.8	91.4
93	SMU	91.9	91.3	90.9	91.4
94	Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.4	90.1	90.9
95	Nevada	91.0	90.9	90.8	90.9
96	Middle Tennessee	90.1	91.2	91.1	90.8
97	U N L V	89.9	91.4	90.3	90.5
98	Tulsa	90.8	89.6	91.1	90.5
99	U A B	89.3	91.6	89.7	90.2
100	Arkansas St.	88.9	90.3	90.5	89.9
101	Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6
102	Georgia Southern	87.5	89.0	88.1	88.2
103	Rutgers	87.7	86.8	86.0	86.8
104	Central Michigan	85.5	88.0	86.0	86.5
105	East Carolina	86.2	86.1	86.0	86.1
106	Southern Miss.	84.5	87.6	85.3	85.8
107	W. Kentucky	83.9	87.1	85.1	85.4
108	New Mexico	84.7	86.3	84.8	85.3
109	Oregon St.	86.3	83.9	84.5	84.9
110	Old Dominion	83.6	87.5	83.4	84.9
111	Ball St.	84.1	86.5	83.8	84.8
112	Massachusetts	83.5	85.5	84.7	84.6
113	Colo. State	82.9	83.7	82.8	83.1
114	UL-Monroe	82.1	82.0	82.4	82.2
115	Hawaii	80.7	82.9	79.5	81.0
116	Liberty	81.1	79.9	81.3	80.8
117	U T S A	78.7	82.9	79.1	80.3
118	Bowling Green	80.2	80.1	80.0	80.1
119	Georgia St.	79.0	81.1	79.8	80.0
120	South Alabama	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9
121	Coastal Carolina	78.7	81.5	79.3	79.8
122	Louisiana	77.8	79.7	78.8	78.8
123	San Jose St.	78.6	79.5	76.8	78.3
124	Kent St.	77.9	78.9	77.3	78.0
125	N. Mexico St.	74.9	77.1	75.0	75.7
126	Charlotte	74.4	76.6	74.3	75.1
127	Connecticut	74.9	75.2	73.6	74.6
128	Texas State	71.3	74.5	70.9	72.2
129	Rice	69.9	72.7	68.5	70.4
130	U T E P	68.6	71.7	68.0	69.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	115.0	115.1	115.5	115.2	1-0	4-0
South Florida	98.2	100.3	98.2	98.9	1-0	4-0
Temple	98.7	98.6	99.4	98.9	1-0	2-3
Cincinnati	96.6	98.2	96.9	97.2	1-0	5-0
East Carolina	86.2	86.1	86.0	86.1	0-1	2-2
Connecticut	74.9	75.2	73.6	74.6	0-2	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	102.9	103.7	103.1	103.2	0-0	3-1
Memphis	100.8	102.6	101.5	101.6	0-2	3-2
Navy	95.5	98.0	95.1	96.2	1-1	2-2
Tulane	95.4	95.8	95.3	95.5	1-0	2-3
SMU	91.9	91.3	90.9	91.4	1-0	2-3
Tulsa	90.8	89.6	91.1	90.5	0-1	1-3
AAC Averages	95.6	96.2	95.6	95.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	129.2	126.5	129.8	128.5	1-0	4-0
Boston College	114.8	112.0	114.6	113.8	1-0	3-1
N. Carolina St.	113.8	113.4	113.5	113.6	0-0	3-0
Syracuse	110.2	108.7	109.5	109.5	1-0	4-0
Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7	0-2	2-2
Wake Forest	107.2	104.9	104.8	105.6	0-1	2-2
Louisville	98.0	98.0	97.2	97.7	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	118.3	117.0	118.2	117.9	0-0	3-1
Virginia Tech	114.4	113.8	114.5	114.2	1-0	2-1
Duke	113.8	111.5	113.2	112.9	0-0	4-0
Georgia Tech	110.0	108.9	109.6	109.5	0-2	1-3
Virginia	103.8	104.3	102.9	103.7	1-0	3-1
Pittsburgh	99.8	99.3	98.9	99.4	1-1	2-2
N. Carolina	98.7	97.6	97.9	98.1	1-0	1-2
ACC Averages	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	120.8	119.5	121.4	120.6	2-0	5-0
West Virginia	114.5	113.7	114.1	114.1	2-0	4-0
Oklahoma St.	113.2	111.5	113.4	112.7	1-1	4-1
T C U	112.9	111.9	111.7	112.1	1-1	3-2
Texas	112.5	111.1	111.9	111.8	2-0	4-1
Iowa State	109.8	108.0	109.2	109.0	0-2	1-3
Texas Tech	108.4	107.0	107.1	107.5	1-1	3-2
Kansas St.	103.3	101.9	102.1	102.4	0-2	2-3
Baylor	102.6	100.6	102.1	101.8	1-1	3-2
Kansas	98.8	97.3	96.8	97.6	0-2	2-3
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0	2-0	5-0
Michigan	123.8	122.5	124.1	123.4	2-0	4-1
Penn St.	123.5	120.8	124.0	122.8	1-1	4-1
Michigan St.	120.3	118.3	119.8	119.5	2-0	3-1
Maryland	104.8	103.4	103.9	104.0	1-0	3-1
Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.0	99.0	1-1	4-1
Rutgers	87.7	86.8	86.0	86.8	0-2	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	118.4	115.8	118.2	117.5	1-0	3-1
Iowa	113.2	110.7	112.4	112.1	0-1	3-1
Northwestern	110.0	108.2	110.0	109.4	1-1	1-3
Purdue	107.5	105.9	107.1	106.8	1-1	2-3
Minnesota	103.7	103.2	103.6	103.5	0-1	3-1
Nebraska	94.6	93.0	92.2	93.2	0-2	0-4
Illinois	91.8	91.5	90.8	91.4	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	96.8	97.2	97.2	97.1	0-1	2-3
Marshall	94.3	97.0	95.3	95.6	1-0	3-1
Florida Int’l.	89.3	93.4	90.1	90.9	1-0	3-2
Middle Tennessee	90.1	91.2	91.1	90.8	1-0	2-2
W. Kentucky	83.9	87.1	85.1	85.4	0-1	1-4
Old Dominion	83.6	87.5	83.4	84.9	0-2	1-4
Charlotte	74.4	76.6	74.3	75.1	1-1	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	103.1	105.5	103.9	104.1	0-1	4-1
Louisiana Tech	95.5	97.9	97.0	96.8	1-0	3-1
U A B	89.3	91.6	89.7	90.2	1-0	3-1
Southern Miss.	84.5	87.6	85.3	85.8	1-0	2-2
U T S A	78.7	82.9	79.1	80.3	1-0	2-3
Rice	69.9	72.7	68.5	70.4	0-1	1-4
U T E P	68.6	71.7	68.0	69.4	0-1	0-5
CUSA Averages	85.9	88.6	86.3	86.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.1	120.9	123.0	122.6	x	5-0
BYU	102.3	102.6	103.0	102.6	x	3-2
Army	102.3	102.9	102.5	102.6	x	3-2
Massachusetts	83.5	85.5	84.7	84.6	x	2-4
Liberty	81.1	79.9	81.3	80.8	x	2-2
N. Mexico St.	74.9	77.1	75.0	75.7	x	1-4
Independents Averages	94.7	94.8	94.9	94.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	96.7	98.8	97.7	97.7	1-0	4-1
Akron	94.9	96.1	95.2	95.4	0-0	2-1
Ohio U	93.9	95.2	94.6	94.6	0-0	2-2
Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6	1-1	1-4
Bowling Green	80.2	80.1	80.0	80.1	0-1	1-4
Kent St.	77.9	78.9	77.3	78.0	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.6	98.9	97.5	98.0	0-0	2-2
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.6	94.8	95.1	2-0	2-3
Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.6	94.0	94.0	0-2	2-3
Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9	1-0	3-2
Central Michigan	85.5	88.0	86.0	86.5	0-1	1-4
Ball St.	84.1	86.5	83.8	84.8	1-0	2-3
MAC Averages	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	114.3	113.6	114.9	114.3	1-0	3-1
Utah St.	103.7	105.0	105.0	104.6	1-0	3-1
Wyoming	96.3	96.1	95.9	96.1	0-1	2-3
Air Force	91.8	92.0	91.4	91.7	0-2	1-3
New Mexico	84.7	86.3	84.8	85.3	0-0	2-2
Colo. State	82.9	83.7	82.8	83.1	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.5	109.2	110.6	110.1	0-0	3-1
San Diego St.	99.8	100.2	100.7	100.2	0-0	3-1
Nevada	91.0	90.9	90.8	90.9	1-0	3-2
U N L V	89.9	91.4	90.3	90.5	0-0	2-2
Hawaii	80.7	82.9	79.5	81.0	2-0	5-1
San Jose St.	78.6	79.5	76.8	78.3	0-1	0-4
MWC Averages	93.7	94.2	93.6	93.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	125.6	123.5	127.5	125.5	2-0	4-1
Stanford	118.2	115.5	118.4	117.4	2-0	4-1
Oregon	112.9	112.9	113.6	113.1	1-1	4-1
Washington St.	109.3	108.3	108.6	108.7	1-1	4-1
California	107.9	105.3	107.4	106.9	0-1	3-1
Oregon St.	86.3	83.9	84.5	84.9	0-2	1-4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	110.7	108.9	111.2	110.3	0-2	2-2
U S C	109.4	107.6	108.6	108.5	2-1	3-2
Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.2	107.9	1-1	3-2
Colorado	103.1	104.7	104.2	104.0	1-0	4-0
Arizona	101.9	100.3	102.1	101.4	1-1	2-3
U C L A	94.8	94.6	92.0	93.8	0-1	0-4
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.0	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.1	127.6	132.1	130.2	3-0	5-0
Missouri	114.8	113.2	116.0	114.6	0-1	3-1
Kentucky	114.6	113.5	114.5	114.2	3-0	5-0
Florida	114.2	112.3	115.0	113.8	2-1	4-1
S. Carolina	112.4	111.3	112.0	111.9	1-2	2-2
Vanderbilt	100.2	100.8	100.1	100.4	0-1	3-2
Tennessee	96.4	96.8	95.7	96.3	0-2	2-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.0	137.9	141.9	139.9	2-0	5-0
Auburn	119.4	118.3	121.3	119.7	1-1	4-1
Mississippi St.	118.4	115.7	118.8	117.7	0-2	3-2
L S U	115.4	115.6	116.6	115.9	2-0	5-0
Texas A&M	113.7	112.3	113.7	113.2	1-1	3-2
Ole Miss	101.7	101.3	101.9	101.6	0-2	3-2
Arkansas	100.1	97.6	98.8	98.8	0-2	1-4
SEC Averages	113.7	112.4	114.2	113.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.1	99.8	99.6	99.1	1-0	3-1
Troy	92.1	93.5	93.6	93.1	2-0	4-1
Georgia Southern	87.5	89.0	88.1	88.2	1-0	3-1
Georgia St.	79.0	81.1	79.8	80.0	1-0	2-3
Coastal Carolina	78.7	81.5	79.3	79.8	1-1	3-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	88.9	90.3	90.5	89.9	0-1	3-2
UL-Monroe	82.1	82.0	82.4	82.2	0-2	2-3
South Alabama	79.0	81.0	79.8	79.9	1-1	1-4
Louisiana	77.8	79.7	78.8	78.8	0-1	1-3
Texas State	71.3	74.5	70.9	72.2	0-1	1-3
Sun Belt Averages	83.4	85.2	84.3	84.3

The Conferences Rated

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.7	112.4	114.2	113.4
2	ACC	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
3	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
4	BTEN	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
5	P-12	107.4	106.0	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.6	96.2	95.6	95.8
7	IND	94.7	94.8	94.9	94.8
8	MWC	93.7	94.2	93.6	93.8
9	MAC	89.9	91.3	90.4	90.6
10	CUSA	85.9	88.6	86.3	86.9
11	SUN	83.4	85.2	84.3	84.3

The Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida
2. South Florida
3. Cincinnati
4. Boise St.
5. Fresno St.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Southern Miss.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Liberty]	Coastal Carolina
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	California
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	UAB	Appalachian St.
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio U
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Marshall
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Northern Illinois	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt 5-7
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Akron	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Wyoming]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Toledo	Northwestern 5-7
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	[BYU]	[UNLV]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Michigan St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Duke	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Texas
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	USC
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	[Utah]	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia	Colorado
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Washington St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Minnesota	Florida
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Penn St.	Oregon
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Clemson
Orange			Ohio St.	Notre Dame
Championship			Alabama	Notre Dame
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
Teams in Italics are 5-7 that qualify based on top APR scores

FBS Power 5 Schools That May Have New Coaches in 2019

There are sites where they list 10-50 head coaches on the hot seat.  Some of these are ridiculous, as they place secure coaches on their lists just to fill up space.  Some of these lists are not updated frequently, as they continue to list already dismissed coaches as being on a hot seat.

The majority of you reading this care mostly about the Power 5 schools.  We have a list of six coaches legitimately on the hot seat after one month of the football season has been played.  Additionally, we added one other that could be a one year hire.

We present the top 6 in reverse order with number one being the most likely candidate to not be his team’s head coach in 2019.

6. Texas Tech–Kliff Kingsbury

If Texas Tech can get to a bowl this year, Kingsbury will most likely get a one year reprieve.  The Red Raiders have an upset win over Oklahoma State, and this gives TTU a chance to make it to 6-6 and earn a low tier bowl.

5. Rutgers–Chris Ash

Rutgers has done very little in Ash’s first two seasons, and they are headed for a last place finish in the Big Ten East this year.  Losing to Kansas and Buffalo has harmed his job status, but transitioning to the Big Ten has been very difficult.  Ash may get one more year to try to turn the program around.

4. Georgia Tech–Paul Johnson

The fans of the Yellow Jackets have grown a little tired of watching their team rush for 300 yards per game and give up a ton of passing yards, while losing a lot of close games.  The problem with dismissing Johnson is that either Tech will have to go through a rough transition moving from the option offense to a more conventional offense, possibly having a weak offense for the next two (even three) years, or they will have to hire another option style coach, like Army’s Jeff Monken.  Tech is most likely headed to another sub .500 record.

3. Larry Fedora–North Carolina

Unless the Tar Heels make a miraculous turnaround and beat several ACC opponents, including Duke, and then they sneak into a minor bowl game, Fedora is most likely out after this season.  UNC has one ACC Coastal Division title and no conference championships in Fedora’s tenure, and the school has been in the headlines for the wrong reasons too many times in recent years.

2. Lovie Smith–Illinois

Illinois last had a winning season in 2011, and that team went 7-6 by beating a 6-7 UCLA team in a bowl and beating a slate of weak opponents.  The Illini last had a really successful season in 2007 when they snuck into the Rose Bowl.  This isn’t a sexy program, but there is no reason it cannot compete in the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions.  Smith’s teams in Champaign-Urbana have yet to show any intent on competing.  If Illinois loses at Nebraska in November, the announcement could come before they play their next game.

1 D.J. Durkin–Maryland

This one is obvious.  Durkin is holding on to this job strictly on a technicality at the moment, as he is on leave pending a hearing into the death of former player Jordan McNair.  We can see no way that Durkin will keep this job.  Whether interim head coach Matt Canada can win enough games to become the full-time coach is debatable, as the school may choose to clean house and start from scratch like it once did with its basketball program when it rambled out of control.

Could He Be One and Done?

One coach not on the hot seat list above is Arizona coach Kevin Sumlin.  Sumlin has not been the best fit with the talent on hand in Tucson, and the Cardinals are looking like a last place team in the weaker South Division in the Pac-12.

Sumlin inherited the top dual threat quarterback in the nation in Khalil Tate.  Last year under previous coach Rich Rodriguez, Tate rushed for 1,411 yards and 12 touchdowns, averaging more than nine yards per rush.  He threw for 1,591 yards and 14 touchdowns.  He missed two games and part of another, so with 8 offensive starters returning, including their top-rate leader, Arizona was expected to score as many points per game as they did last year, if not more.  How many did they average in 2017?  41.3 points per game ranked among the national leaders.

Arizona returned nearly every player that caught a pass and their top non-QB runner.  The offense under Rich Rod would have expected to top 500 yards per game and 40 points per game for sure.

Sumlin has turned Tate into a drop back passer, and the results have been disastrous.  Through five games this year, Tate averages a measley 14 rushing yards per game.  His passing efficiency is down, mostly due to a much lower completion percentage.  Most importantly, the Wildcats are averaging 24 points per game against FBS opponents.  A 3-9 record is the most likely scenario, but that assumes ‘Zona will beat UCLA.

Sumlin has one saving grace.  The school will basically have to mortgage the football stadium to buy out his contract this year or next year, unless they can find cause to dismiss him.  Cause does not mean going 2-10.  He would have to be culpable in a violation of rules or school policy.

Coaches Likely To Receive Promotions To Better Jobs

There are some obvious names that are likely to be candidates to move up to bigger and better jobs in 2019.  It depends on which jobs come open.  You never know when somebody might retire, take an NFL job, or step down due to health reasons.  What if Nick Saban goes 15-0 and decides he has nothing more to prove at Alabama?  He might decide that he has one more chance at a Lomardi Trophy.  Others that potentially could retire include Bill Snyder at Kansas State, Kirk Ferentz at Iowa, David Cutcliffe at Duke, and even Mark Dantonio at Michigan State.

Who would be the key candidates that some school’s athletic director and board members might look to when they fill these jobs?

Coaches already at Power 5 Schools

1. Matt Campbell–Iowa St.

Campbell has turned Iowa State into a serious player in the Big 12, but this program has so many liabilities trying to compete with Oklahoma and Texas.  It isn’t likely that Campbell can sustain success over the long haul in Ames, so he might look to strike while the iron is hot, as it might start to cool after this season.

2. Bronco Mendenhall–Virginia

Mendenhall won at BYU and was a somewhat surprising choice for the Cavaliers’ job.  After a slow rebuilding process, he has made the Cavs a decent team that should earn a second consecutive bowl appearance.  This has never been a major football power, and Mendenhall maybe has one more job left in his resume.

3. Jeff Brohm–Purdue

Brohm won at Western Kentucky and immediately won at Purdue last year, taking the Boilermakers to their first bowl game in five years.  This is a hard place to win, but it has been done before.  However, Purdue is a basketball school, and other football powers can offer Brohm more than Purdue can match.  If he can get the Boilermakers back to a bowl this year after  an 0-3 start, somebody may come after him.

4. Mike Leach–Washington State

This would be a long shot, but Leach has been offered new job opportunities in the past 12 months.  He chose to stay in Pullman.  If you have never been to this part of the country, Pullman is in one of the most beautiful areas, offering lifelong Westerners like Leach something he could not find in the East or South.  The Palouse can transform an Instagrammer into the next Ansel Adams.  Leach might like to finish his career in this Heaven on Earth.  The contract to lure him away would have to be guaranteed with several million dollars per year offered.

Group  of 5 Head Coaches

Bryan Harsin–Boise St.

Harsin has become the next great Boise State head coach.  Dirk Koetter could not win at Arizona State after leaving Boise.  Dan Hawkins failed at Colorado.  Chris Petersen has become a major success at Washington, so one of the three great Bronco coaches has been able to do the trick away from the field of blue.

Craig Bohl–Wyoming

Bohl helped create the FCS dynasty at North Dakota State, winning three consecutive national titles.  He’s done an admirable job at Wyoming, where even though the state produces few FBS-caliber recruits, this program has a long history of being viable.  Bohl’s biggest liability is the one he can do nothing about–he’s 61 years old.

Scott Satterfield–Appalachian State

It seems like it is just a matter of time before some school comes after him and then offers him what it will take to get him to sign on the dotted line.  The Sun Belt Conference might never produce a New Year’s Six Bowl team, because it generally ranks last among the Group of 5.  Appalachian State might be good enough to play in an upper tier December bowl game if given the chance, but it isn’t likely to happen.  A 12-1 season is quite possible this year, and it will only lead to a bowl like the Camellia, Dollar General, or New Orleans.

Neal Brown–Troy

Brown is exactly like Satterfield.  He has done an incredible job at Troy and should continue to receive attention from other schools looking to fill vacancies.  Beating LSU last year and Nebraska this year will move him onto some school’s short list in December.

Five Coordinators at FBS Schools That Should Become Head Coaches One Day

Dave Arranda–LSU Defensive Coordinator

Mike Bloomgren–Stanford Offensive Coordinator

Tee Martin–USC Offensive Coordinator

Todd Orlando–Texas Defensive Coordinator

Brent Venables–Clemson Defensive Coordinator

 

Five FCS Head Coaches That Could Become FBS Head Coaches

Brian Bohannon–Kennesaw State (An option style coach)

John Grass–Jacksonville State

Lance Guidry–McNeese State

Mike Houston–James Madison

Chris Klieman–North Dakota State

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 5

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday	September 27
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina	18.6	18.2	19.1

 

Friday	September 28
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Memphis	-7.4	-9.6	-9.0
Colorado	UCLA	8.0	9.7	12.2

 

Saturday	September 29
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Army	2.8	4.8	4.3
Connecticut	Cincinnati	-13.1	-14.6	-14.7
Michigan St.	Central Michigan	40.2	35.2	39.4
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	0.9	1.6	2.1
Ball St.	Kent St.	3.5	4.9	3.3
Wake Forest	Rice	39.5	34.0	38.3
East Carolina	Old Dominion	5.3	1.1	5.3
Georgia Tech	Bowling Green	28.6	27.3	27.8
Boston College	Temple	20.7	17.8	20.0
Clemson	Syracuse	24.2	22.8	25.9
Appalachian St.	South Alabama	16.5	15.9	16.8
Duke	Virginia Tech	6.6	4.7	6.3
Georgia St.	UL-Monroe	-8.1	-5.2	-7.9
Ohio U	Massachusetts	13.2	12.1	12.3
Central Florida	Pittsburgh	14.1	14.5	15.1
Kentucky	South Carolina	2.2	2.0	2.1
North Carolina St.	Virginia	12.8	12.0	13.4
Rutgers	Indiana	-9.2	-9.3	-11.0
Air Force	Nevada	6.5	7.0	6.7
Washington St.	Utah	0.7	1.4	-1.3
Arizona St.	Oregon St.	24.8	25.8	26.3
Washington	BYU	26.1	23.1	27.3
Fresno St.	Toledo	16.0	12.7	15.8
Miami (O)	Western Michigan	-1.3	-1.4	0.3
Louisville	Florida St.	-4.9	-4.1	-5.2
Penn St.	Ohio St.	-2.6	-3.2	-2.9
Georgia Southern	Arkansas St.	-0.4	-0.4	-2.0
Georgia	Tennessee	39.3	35.0	41.7
New Mexico	Liberty	11.6	15.0	11.9
Auburn	Southern Miss.	41.8	37.3	43.5
TCU	Iowa St.	6.3	7.0	5.6
Alabama	Louisiana	63.2	59.2	64.1
Oklahoma	Baylor	18.7	19.4	19.8
UTSA	UTEP	12.3	13.7	13.8
Nebraska	Purdue	-9.5	-9.3	-11.5
Kansas St.	Texas	-6.4	-6.4	-6.9
Texas Tech	West Virginia	-1.9	-2.5	-2.9
North Texas	Louisiana Tech	13.6	13.8	13.4
UAB	Charlotte	17.0	17.0	17.1
Kansas	Oklahoma St.	-10.3	-9.6	-12.7
Western Kentucky	Marshall	-8.4	-7.8	-8.3
Mississippi St.	Florida	11.2	10.4	11.1
LSU	Ole Miss	13.3	13.8	13.9
Troy	Coastal Carolina	14.8	13.0	15.8
Middle Tennessee	Florida Atlantic	-6.5	-5.6	-6.0
Arizona	USC	-3.6	-3.4	-2.5
Wyoming	Boise St.	-14.0	-13.3	-14.7
San Jose St.	Hawaii	1.6	0.1	1.0
Notre Dame	Stanford	4.4	3.5	2.2
Northwestern	Michigan	-12.4	-13.2	-13.1
Texas A&M	Arkansas	17.6	19.0	19.7
California	Oregon	1.6	-1.5	0.6

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Vanderbilt	Tennessee St.	27.9
SMU	Houston Baptist	34.0
Florida Int’l.	Ark.-Pine Bluff	43.4

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	139.0	136.9	140.9	138.9
2	Georgia	131.9	128.2	133.3	131.1
3	Clemson	130.3	127.5	131.1	129.6
4	Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0
5	Washington	125.5	123.1	127.4	125.3
6	Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.9	124.1
7	Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1
8	Auburn	121.5	120.3	123.7	121.8
9	Michigan St.	122.3	120.1	121.9	121.5
10	Notre Dame	121.7	118.3	120.2	120.0
11	Mississippi St.	120.5	117.8	121.1	119.8
12	Stanford	120.3	117.8	120.9	119.7
13	Oklahoma	119.4	118.1	120.0	119.2
14	Wisconsin	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
15	Miami	116.3	114.9	116.1	115.8
16	Duke	115.9	113.5	115.5	115.0
17	Boston College	115.6	112.7	115.5	114.6
18	Missouri	114.5	112.9	115.7	114.3
19	L S U	113.7	113.8	114.7	114.1
20	Texas A&M	114.2	113.0	114.6	113.9
21	Boise St.	113.8	113.0	114.2	113.7
22	S. Carolina	113.9	112.9	113.7	113.5
23	N. Carolina St.	113.7	113.3	113.4	113.5
24	West Virginia	113.8	113.0	113.4	113.4
25	Central Florida	113.1	113.1	113.4	113.2
26	Kentucky	113.1	111.9	112.8	112.6
27	Oklahoma St.	112.8	110.9	113.1	112.2
28	T C U	113.0	112.0	111.8	112.2
29	Virginia Tech	112.3	111.8	112.2	112.1
30	Florida	112.4	110.5	113.0	111.9
31	Texas	112.6	111.2	112.0	111.9
32	Iowa	112.9	110.4	112.1	111.8
33	Oregon	111.1	111.3	111.7	111.4
34	Utah	111.4	109.6	112.3	111.1
35	Fresno St.	110.3	108.6	110.2	109.7
36	Iowa State	109.7	107.9	109.1	108.9
37	Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.2	108.7
38	California	109.7	106.9	109.3	108.6
39	Washington St.	109.1	108.1	108.0	108.4
40	Syracuse	109.1	107.7	108.2	108.3
41	U S C	108.9	107.1	108.1	108.0
42	Texas Tech	108.8	107.4	107.5	107.9
43	Arizona St.	108.3	106.9	108.0	107.7
44	Georgia Tech	108.3	107.0	107.6	107.7
45	Purdue	107.3	105.6	106.9	106.6
46	N. Texas	104.6	107.1	105.6	105.7
47	Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7
48	Wake Forest	106.9	104.4	104.4	105.2
49	Memphis	103.6	105.8	104.7	104.7
50	Utah St.	103.4	104.7	104.7	104.3
51	Virginia	103.9	104.4	103.0	103.8
52	Maryland	104.5	103.1	103.6	103.7
53	Ole Miss	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4
54	Minnesota	103.4	102.9	103.3	103.2
55	Houston	102.6	103.4	102.8	102.9
56	Baylor	103.7	101.7	103.2	102.9
57	BYU	102.4	103.0	103.1	102.8
58	Colorado	101.4	103.0	102.7	102.4
59	Kansas St.	103.2	101.8	102.0	102.3
60	Arizona	102.4	100.8	102.6	101.9
61	Pittsburgh	102.0	101.6	101.3	101.7
62	Vanderbilt	100.7	101.3	100.6	100.9
63	Buffalo	99.2	101.5	100.5	100.4
64	N. Carolina	100.7	99.7	100.0	100.2
65	San Diego St.	99.5	99.9	100.4	99.9
66	Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.2	99.1
67	Army	98.8	99.2	98.7	98.9
68	South Florida	97.9	100.0	97.9	98.6
69	Florida Atlantic	98.2	98.5	98.7	98.5
70	Toledo	97.8	99.5	97.9	98.4
71	Kansas	99.5	98.2	97.4	98.4
72	Arkansas	99.6	96.9	97.9	98.1
73	Temple	97.9	97.9	98.5	98.1
74	Louisville	98.2	98.2	97.4	97.9
75	Wyoming	96.8	96.7	96.6	96.7
76	Appalachian St.	95.5	97.0	96.8	96.4
77	Navy	95.3	97.8	94.9	96.0
78	Marshall	94.5	97.2	95.6	95.8
79	Tennessee	95.6	96.2	94.5	95.4
80	U C L A	96.5	96.3	93.5	95.4
81	Akron	94.7	95.9	95.0	95.2
82	Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.3	95.2
83	Northern Illinois	95.0	95.5	94.6	95.0
84	Ohio U	93.8	94.9	94.3	94.3
85	Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.7	94.2	94.1
86	Cincinnati	93.3	95.0	93.6	93.9
87	Nebraska	94.8	93.3	92.4	93.5
88	Air Force	93.4	93.7	93.2	93.4
89	Tulane	93.2	93.2	92.7	93.0
90	Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9
91	Troy	91.3	92.5	92.8	92.2
92	Illinois	91.6	91.3	90.6	91.2
93	SMU	91.7	91.1	90.7	91.2
94	Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.8	91.0
95	Florida Int’l.	89.1	93.2	89.9	90.7
96	U N L V	89.7	91.2	90.1	90.3
97	Tulsa	90.6	89.4	90.9	90.3
98	U A B	89.1	91.3	89.3	89.9
99	Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.4	90.1	89.9
100	Nevada	89.9	89.7	89.5	89.7
101	Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6
102	New Mexico	87.1	89.0	87.4	87.8
103	Georgia Southern	86.5	87.9	86.8	87.1
104	Rutgers	87.7	86.8	85.8	86.8
105	UL-Monroe	86.3	85.9	86.8	86.4
106	East Carolina	86.3	86.1	86.1	86.2
107	Central Michigan	84.2	86.9	84.6	85.2
108	W. Kentucky	83.7	86.9	84.8	85.1
109	Oregon St.	86.5	84.1	84.7	85.1
110	Massachusetts	83.6	85.8	85.0	84.8
111	Old Dominion	83.5	87.5	83.3	84.8
112	Southern Miss.	82.7	85.9	83.2	84.0
113	South Alabama	81.9	84.1	82.9	83.0
114	Colo. State	82.7	83.5	82.6	82.9
115	Bowling Green	82.2	82.3	82.3	82.3
116	Ball St.	81.5	83.9	81.0	82.1
117	Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0
118	Kent St.	80.5	81.5	80.1	80.7
119	Coastal Carolina	79.5	82.5	80.1	80.7
120	U T S A	78.8	83.1	79.4	80.5
121	Louisiana	78.8	80.7	79.8	79.8
122	Liberty	79.0	77.5	79.0	78.5
123	San Jose St.	78.7	79.5	76.9	78.4
124	Connecticut	77.7	77.9	76.4	77.3
125	Georgia St.	75.8	78.2	76.4	76.8
126	N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.8	75.5
127	Charlotte	74.6	76.9	74.7	75.4
128	Texas State	71.1	74.3	70.7	72.0
129	Rice	70.4	73.4	69.1	71.0
130	U T E P	68.5	71.5	67.7	69.2

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.1	113.1	113.4	113.2	1-0	3-0
South Florida	97.9	100.0	97.9	98.6	1-0	4-0
Temple	97.9	97.9	98.5	98.1	1-0	2-2
Cincinnati	93.3	95.0	93.6	93.9	0-0	4-0
East Carolina	86.3	86.1	86.1	86.2	0-1	1-2
Connecticut	77.7	77.9	76.4	77.3	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	103.6	105.8	104.7	104.7	0-1	3-1
Houston	102.6	103.4	102.8	102.9	0-0	3-1
Navy	95.3	97.8	94.9	96.0	1-1	2-2
Tulane	93.2	93.2	92.7	93.0	0-0	1-3
SMU	91.7	91.1	90.7	91.2	1-0	1-3
Tulsa	90.6	89.4	90.9	90.3	0-1	1-3
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.2	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	130.3	127.5	131.1	129.6	1-0	4-0
Boston College	115.6	112.7	115.5	114.6	1-0	3-1
N. Carolina St.	113.7	113.3	113.4	113.5	0-0	3-0
Syracuse	109.1	107.7	108.2	108.3	1-0	4-0
Florida St.	106.1	105.4	105.6	105.7	0-2	2-2
Wake Forest	106.9	104.4	104.4	105.2	0-1	2-2
Louisville	98.2	98.2	97.4	97.9	0-1	2-2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	116.3	114.9	116.1	115.8	0-0	3-1
Duke	115.9	113.5	115.5	115.0	0-0	4-0
Virginia Tech	112.3	111.8	112.2	112.1	1-0	2-1
Georgia Tech	108.3	107.0	107.6	107.7	0-2	1-3
Virginia	103.9	104.4	103.0	103.8	1-0	3-1
Pittsburgh	102.0	101.6	101.3	101.7	1-1	2-2
N. Carolina	100.7	99.7	100.0	100.2	1-0	1-2
ACC Averages	110.0	108.7	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.4	118.1	120.0	119.2	1-0	4-0
West Virginia	113.8	113.0	113.4	113.4	1-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	112.8	110.9	113.1	112.2	0-1	3-1
T C U	113.0	112.0	111.8	112.2	0-1	2-2
Texas	112.6	111.2	112.0	111.9	1-0	3-1
Iowa State	109.7	107.9	109.1	108.9	0-1	1-2
Texas Tech	108.8	107.4	107.5	107.9	1-0	3-1
Baylor	103.7	101.7	103.2	102.9	1-0	3-1
Kansas St.	103.2	101.8	102.0	102.3	0-1	2-2
Kansas	99.5	98.2	97.4	98.4	0-1	2-2
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	129.5	127.3	130.2	129.0	1-0	4-0
Michigan	124.4	123.2	124.9	124.1	1-0	3-1
Penn St.	123.8	121.1	124.3	123.1	1-0	4-0
Michigan St.	122.3	120.1	121.9	121.5	1-0	2-1
Maryland	104.5	103.1	103.6	103.7	1-0	3-1
Indiana	99.4	98.7	99.2	99.1	0-1	3-1
Rutgers	87.7	86.8	85.8	86.8	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	1-0	3-1
Iowa	112.9	110.4	112.1	111.8	0-1	3-1
Northwestern	109.4	107.5	109.2	108.7	1-0	1-2
Purdue	107.3	105.6	106.9	106.6	0-1	1-3
Minnesota	103.4	102.9	103.3	103.2	0-1	3-1
Nebraska	94.8	93.3	92.4	93.5	0-1	0-3
Illinois	91.6	91.3	90.6	91.2	0-1	2-2
Big Ten Averages	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.2	98.5	98.7	98.5	0-0	2-2
Marshall	94.5	97.2	95.6	95.8	0-0	2-1
Florida Int’l.	89.1	93.2	89.9	90.7	1-0	2-2
Middle Tennessee	89.2	90.4	90.1	89.9	0-0	1-2
W. Kentucky	83.7	86.9	84.8	85.1	0-0	1-3
Old Dominion	83.5	87.5	83.3	84.8	0-2	1-3
Charlotte	74.6	76.9	74.7	75.4	1-0	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	104.6	107.1	105.6	105.7	0-0	4-0
Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.3	95.2	0-0	2-1
U A B	89.1	91.3	89.3	89.9	0-0	2-1
Southern Miss.	82.7	85.9	83.2	84.0	1-0	2-1
U T S A	78.8	83.1	79.4	80.5	0-0	1-3
Rice	70.4	73.4	69.1	71.0	0-1	1-3
U T E P	68.5	71.5	67.7	69.2	0-0	0-4
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.7	118.3	120.2	120.0	x	4-0
BYU	102.4	103.0	103.1	102.8	x	3-1
Army	98.8	99.2	98.7	98.9	x	2-2
Massachusetts	83.6	85.8	85.0	84.8	x	2-3
Liberty	79.0	77.5	79.0	78.5	x	1-2
N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.8	75.5	x	1-4
Indep. Averages	93.4	93.4	93.5	93.4
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.2	101.5	100.5	100.4	1-0	4-0
Akron	94.7	95.9	95.0	95.2	0-0	2-1
Ohio U	93.8	94.9	94.3	94.3	0-0	1-2
Miami (O)	88.1	89.9	90.7	89.6	1-0	1-3
Bowling Green	82.2	82.3	82.3	82.3	0-1	1-3
Kent St.	80.5	81.5	80.1	80.7	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	97.8	99.5	97.9	98.4	0-0	2-1
Northern Illinois	95.0	95.5	94.6	95.0	1-0	1-3
Eastern Michigan	93.3	94.7	94.2	94.1	0-1	2-2
Western Michigan	91.9	93.7	92.9	92.9	0-0	2-2
Central Michigan	84.2	86.9	84.6	85.2	0-1	1-3
Ball St.	81.5	83.9	81.0	82.1	0-0	1-3
MAC Averages	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	113.8	113.0	114.2	113.7	0-0	2-1
Utah St.	103.4	104.7	104.7	104.3	1-0	3-1
Wyoming	96.8	96.7	96.6	96.7	0-0	2-2
Air Force	93.4	93.7	93.2	93.4	0-1	1-2
New Mexico	87.1	89.0	87.4	87.8	0-0	2-1
Colo. State	82.7	83.5	82.6	82.9	0-1	1-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.3	108.6	110.2	109.7	0-0	2-1
San Diego St.	99.5	99.9	100.4	99.9	0-0	3-1
U N L V	89.7	91.2	90.1	90.3	0-0	2-2
Nevada	89.9	89.7	89.5	89.7	0-0	2-2
Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0	1-0	4-1
San Jose St.	78.7	79.5	76.9	78.4	0-0	0-3
MWC Averages	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	125.5	123.1	127.4	125.3	2-0	3-1
Stanford	120.3	117.8	120.9	119.7	2-0	4-0
Oregon	111.1	111.3	111.7	111.4	0-1	3-1
Washington St.	109.1	108.1	108.0	108.4	0-1	3-1
California	109.7	106.9	109.3	108.6	0-0	3-0
Oregon St.	86.5	84.1	84.7	85.1	0-1	1-3
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	111.4	109.6	112.3	111.1	0-1	2-1
U S C	108.9	107.1	108.1	108.0	1-1	2-2
Arizona St.	108.3	106.9	108.0	107.7	0-1	2-2
Colorado	101.4	103.0	102.7	102.4	0-0	3-0
Arizona	102.4	100.8	102.6	101.9	1-0	2-2
U C L A	96.5	96.3	93.5	95.4	0-0	0-3
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.2	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	131.9	128.2	133.3	131.1	2-0	4-0
Missouri	114.5	112.9	115.7	114.3	0-1	3-1
S. Carolina	113.9	112.9	113.7	113.5	1-1	2-1
Kentucky	113.1	111.9	112.8	112.6	2-0	4-0
Florida	112.4	110.5	113.0	111.9	1-1	3-1
Vanderbilt	100.7	101.3	100.6	100.9	0-1	2-2
Tennessee	95.6	96.2	94.5	95.4	0-1	2-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	139.0	136.9	140.9	138.9	2-0	4-0
Auburn	121.5	120.3	123.7	121.8	1-1	3-1
Mississippi St.	120.5	117.8	121.1	119.8	0-1	3-1
L S U	113.7	113.8	114.7	114.1	1-0	4-0
Texas A&M	114.2	113.0	114.6	113.9	0-1	2-2
Ole Miss	103.4	103.1	103.8	103.4	0-1	3-1
Arkansas	99.6	96.9	97.9	98.1	0-1	1-3
SEC Averages	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	95.5	97.0	96.8	96.4	0-0	2-1
Troy	91.3	92.5	92.8	92.2	1-0	3-1
Georgia Southern	86.5	87.9	86.8	87.1	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	79.5	82.5	80.1	80.7	1-0	3-1
Georgia St.	75.8	78.2	76.4	76.8	0-0	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.9	91.4	91.8	91.0	0-0	3-1
UL-Monroe	86.3	85.9	86.8	86.4	0-1	2-2
South Alabama	81.9	84.1	82.9	83.0	1-0	1-3
Louisiana	78.8	80.7	79.8	79.8	0-1	1-2
Texas State	71.1	74.3	70.7	72.0	0-1	1-3
Sun Belt Averages	83.7	85.4	84.5	84.5

 

The Conference Ratings

 

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
2	ACC	110.0	108.7	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.2	107.6	108.7	108.5
5	P-12	107.6	106.2	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	95.3	95.9	95.2	95.5
7	MWC	93.8	94.4	93.8	94.0
8	IND	93.4	93.4	93.5	93.4
9	MAC	90.2	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.7	85.4	84.5	84.5

Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. Central Florida

2. South Florida

3. North Texas

4. Cincinnati

5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	Southern Miss.
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Washington St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Buffalo	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[UNLV]	Toledo
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	UAB
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Houston	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	[Army]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	[Utah]	Iowa St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Florida Atlantic	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Wyoming]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	[Akron]	[BYU]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virgnia	[Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia Tech	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	LSU
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Indiana	Florida
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Miami (Fla.)	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Georgia Southern
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma	Oregon
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	Auburn
Peach	At-large	At-large	Notre Dame	Central Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Boston College
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina St.	Colorado
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	California
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	USC
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Syracuse	South Carolina
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Kentucky
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Stanford	Ohio St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Wisconsin	Mississippi St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton	FBS	PLAYOFF	Alabama	Penn St.
Orange	FBS	PLAYOFF	Clemson	Georgia
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Best TV Games This Week

All Game Times, Eastern Daylight

Games in Red Are Top 3 of the Day

Time	Home Team	Visitor	Network
12:00 PM	Clemson	Syracuse	ABC
12:00 PM	Buffalo	Army	CBSSN
12:00 PM	Texas Tech	West Virginia	ESPN2
12:20 PM	North Carolina St.	Virginia	ACCN
3:30 PM	Kansas St.	Texas	FS1
4:30 PM	Northwestern	Michigan	Fox
6:00 PM	Mississippi St.	Florida	ESPN
6:00 PM	Washington St.	Utah	Pac-12
7:00 PM	Duke	Virginia Tech	ESPN2
7:30 PM	Penn St.	Ohio St.	ABC
7:30 PM	Notre Dame	Stanford	NBC
7:30 PM	Kentucky	South Carolina	SEC
9:15 PM	LSU	Ole Miss	ESPN
10:30 PM	Fresno St.	Toledo	ESPNU
10:30 PM	California	Oregon	FS1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 4

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Thursday,	September 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Temple	Tulsa	8.4	9.6	8.3

 

Friday	September 21
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Central Florida	Florida Atlantic	17.3	16.5	16.6
Illinois	Penn St.	-26.8	-23.9	-28.2
USC	Washington St.	2.8	1.8	3.1

 

Saturday	September 22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa St.	Akron	18.5	15.2	17.5
Marshall	North Carolina St.	-16.0	-12.5	-14.4
Massachusetts	Charlotte	10.2	9.7	11.0
Indiana	Michigan St.	-20.5	-18.8	-20.5
Maryland	Minnesota	-2.4	-3.4	-3.3
Ball St.	Western Kentucky	1.6	0.6	-0.2
Purdue	Boston College	-10.2	-9.0	-11.1
Syracuse	Connecticut	33.9	32.3	34.3
Miami (Fla.)	Florida Int’l.	32.4	26.6	31.4
North Carolina	Pittsburgh	0.8	0.0	0.6
Florida St.	Northern Illinois	13.6	11.8	13.0
Bowling Green	Miami (O)	-3.6	-5.3	-4.1
Ohio St.	Tulane	37.3	34.7	38.4
Georgia Tech	Clemson	-18.0	-15.8	-19.2
Cincinnati	Ohio U	1.8	2.2	1.0
South Florida	East Carolina	15.4	18.9	17.0
Wake Forest	Notre Dame	-7.7	-6.4	-8.5
Toledo	Nevada	9.0	10.8	9.1
Virginia	Louisville	4.8	5.2	4.4
Georgia St.	Western Michigan	-11.4	-10.3	-11.3
Rutgers	Buffalo	-2.3	-5.5	-5.7
Oregon St.	Arizona	-10.1	-10.8	-11.6
Oregon	Stanford	-5.6	-3.0	-5.5
Tennessee	Florida	-10.9	-8.8	-12.0
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	-12.1	-10.6	-12.9
Michigan	Nebraska	26.9	27.2	29.8
West Virginia	Kansas St.	9.5	10.0	9.8
Ole Miss	Kent St.	26.5	25.3	28.1
Southern Miss.	Rice	14.9	15.1	16.7
Auburn	Arkansas	24.7	26.1	28.6
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	14.7	14.3	16.3
SMU	Navy	-1.6	-5.2	-2.3
Louisiana	Coastal Carolina	3.7	2.6	4.1
Arkansas St.	UNLV	2.6	2.3	3.9
Texas	TCU	0.2	-0.4	0.4
Oklahoma	Army	29.5	27.8	30.2
LSU	Louisiana Tech	23.0	20.4	22.9
Baylor	Kansas	4.4	3.3	5.9
Vanderbilt	South Carolina	-7.1	-5.2	-6.3
Memphis	South Alabama	26.8	27.0	27.3
Utah St.	Air Force	13.2	14.6	15.3
UTEP	New Mexico St.	-3.9	-3.1	-4.5
UTSA	Texas St.	11.1	12.4	12.5
UL-Monroe	Troy	-1.2	-2.9	-2.0
Old Dominion	Virginia Tech	-34.2	-29.7	-34.3
Liberty	North Texas	-17.1	-21.5	-17.8
Missouri	Georgia	-14.7	-12.5	-14.9
Alabama	Texas A&M	28.9	28.0	30.4
Iowa	Wisconsin	0.3	0.6	0.1
Washington	Arizona St.	22.5	21.5	25.4
San Diego St.	Eastern Michigan	10.9	10.1	11.5

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Colorado St.	Illinois St.	10.5
Central Michigan	Maine	5.0
Duke	UNC-Central	49.9
Appalachian St.	Gardner-Webb	40.9
BYU	McNeese St.	19.0
Houston	Texas Southern	45.6
Hawaii	Duquesne	27.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	139.3	137.2	141.2	139.2
2	Georgia	132.2	128.4	133.6	131.4
3	Clemson	129.8	126.7	130.5	129.0
4	Ohio St.	128.7	126.2	129.3	128.1
5	Washington	126.8	124.4	129.1	126.7
6	Mississippi St.	123.8	121.1	124.4	123.1
7	Oklahoma	122.6	121.3	123.2	122.4
8	Michigan	122.3	121.1	122.8	122.0
9	Penn St.	122.7	119.8	123.2	121.9
10	Michigan St.	122.6	120.3	122.3	121.8
11	Auburn	121.4	120.2	123.6	121.7
12	Stanford	120.0	117.6	120.5	119.4
13	Notre Dame	119.4	115.8	117.8	117.6
14	Miami	117.9	116.3	117.7	117.3
15	Boston College	118.2	115.3	118.4	117.3
16	Virginia Tech	116.5	116.0	116.4	116.3
17	Wisconsin	117.0	114.3	116.6	116.0
18	Oklahoma St.	116.4	114.6	116.7	115.9
19	Duke	115.6	113.2	115.2	114.7
20	L S U	114.1	114.0	115.2	114.4
21	Missouri	114.5	113.0	115.7	114.4
22	T C U	114.2	113.3	113.2	113.5
23	Boise St.	113.5	112.7	113.9	113.4
24	Iowa	114.3	111.9	113.7	113.3
25	N. Carolina St.	113.6	113.0	113.2	113.3
26	Texas A&M	113.4	112.2	113.8	113.1
27	Central Florida	113.0	112.8	113.1	113.0
28	S. Carolina	112.3	111.1	111.7	111.7
29	Oregon	111.4	111.5	112.1	111.7
30	West Virginia	112.0	111.2	111.4	111.5
31	Utah	111.1	109.3	112.0	110.8
32	Texas	111.4	109.9	110.6	110.6
33	Florida	110.8	109.1	111.1	110.3
34	Fresno St.	110.0	108.3	109.9	109.4
35	Iowa State	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1
36	Georgia Tech	109.3	108.3	108.7	108.8
37	Washington St.	109.1	108.2	108.0	108.4
38	Northwestern	109.1	107.2	108.9	108.4
39	California	109.4	106.6	109.0	108.3
40	Kentucky	108.8	107.6	108.5	108.3
41	Syracuse	109.0	107.6	108.1	108.2
42	U S C	108.9	107.0	108.1	108.0
43	Wake Forest	108.7	106.4	106.3	107.1
44	Arizona St.	107.3	105.9	106.6	106.6
45	Minnesota	106.7	106.2	106.6	106.5
46	Memphis	105.0	107.3	106.3	106.2
47	Florida St.	105.8	104.9	105.1	105.2
48	Kansas St.	105.5	104.1	104.5	104.7
49	Utah St.	103.5	105.0	105.1	104.5
50	Purdue	105.0	103.3	104.3	104.2
51	Ole Miss	104.0	103.7	104.8	104.1
52	Texas Tech	104.7	103.2	103.4	103.8
53	Vanderbilt	102.6	103.4	102.9	103.0
54	BYU	102.2	102.8	102.9	102.6
55	N. Texas	101.4	104.1	102.2	102.5
56	Houston	102.1	102.9	102.3	102.4
57	Colorado	101.1	102.7	102.4	102.1
58	Pittsburgh	102.3	102.0	101.7	102.0
59	Virginia	102.2	102.7	101.1	102.0
60	Baylor	102.3	100.1	101.7	101.4
61	San Diego St.	100.2	100.7	101.4	100.7
62	Arizona	101.2	99.5	101.1	100.6
63	Maryland	101.2	99.8	100.3	100.4
64	Louisville	100.4	100.4	99.8	100.2
65	N. Carolina	100.6	99.5	99.8	100.0
66	Kansas	100.9	99.8	98.9	99.9
67	South Florida	98.3	101.0	99.0	99.4
68	Indiana	99.1	98.5	98.8	98.8
69	Florida Atlantic	98.3	98.8	99.0	98.7
70	Arkansas	99.7	97.0	98.0	98.2
71	Temple	97.2	97.2	97.6	97.3
72	Toledo	96.6	98.3	96.5	97.1
73	Nebraska	98.4	96.9	96.0	97.1
74	Tennessee	96.9	97.3	96.1	96.8
75	Buffalo	95.4	97.7	96.7	96.6
76	Wyoming	96.6	96.5	96.4	96.5
77	Navy	95.5	98.3	95.2	96.4
78	Army	96.1	96.5	96.0	96.2
79	Marshall	94.6	97.5	95.8	96.0
80	Northern Illinois	95.3	96.0	95.1	95.5
81	Appalachian St.	94.5	96.0	95.8	95.4
82	U C L A	96.2	96.0	93.2	95.1
83	Akron	94.4	95.8	94.8	95.0
84	Louisiana Tech	93.6	96.1	94.8	94.8
85	Ohio U	93.9	95.1	94.7	94.6
86	Tulane	94.3	94.6	93.9	94.3
87	Cincinnati	93.2	94.8	93.2	93.7
88	Air Force	93.3	93.4	92.8	93.2
89	Eastern Michigan	92.3	93.6	92.9	92.9
90	Illinois	93.0	92.9	92.0	92.6
91	Troy	90.9	92.2	92.3	91.8
92	Western Michigan	90.9	92.5	91.7	91.7
93	Tulsa	91.3	90.1	91.8	91.1
94	Nevada	91.1	90.9	90.9	91.0
95	SMU	91.5	90.6	90.4	90.8
96	U N L V	90.0	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Arkansas St.	89.6	91.0	91.4	90.7
98	Miami (O)	89.0	90.7	89.7	89.8
99	U A B	88.9	91.1	89.1	89.7
100	Middle Tennessee	89.0	90.2	89.9	89.7
101	Rutgers	90.5	89.6	88.6	89.6
102	Florida Int’l.	87.5	91.8	88.3	89.2
103	New Mexico	86.9	88.8	87.2	87.6
104	Georgia Southern	86.3	87.7	86.6	86.9
105	UL-Monroe	86.7	86.2	87.3	86.8
106	Oregon St.	88.0	85.7	86.5	86.7
107	East Carolina	85.9	85.1	85.0	85.3
108	Central Michigan	84.0	86.7	84.4	85.0
109	W. Kentucky	83.1	86.3	84.2	84.5
110	Massachusetts	83.2	85.2	84.4	84.3
111	Colo. State	84.0	84.8	83.9	84.2
112	Southern Miss.	82.5	85.7	83.0	83.8
113	Bowling Green	83.4	83.4	83.6	83.5
114	Ball St.	82.1	84.5	81.6	82.7
115	South Alabama	81.2	83.3	82.0	82.2
116	U T S A	79.4	83.8	80.2	81.2
117	Old Dominion	79.8	83.8	79.6	81.1
118	Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0
119	Liberty	81.2	79.5	81.4	80.7
120	Kent St.	80.4	81.4	79.6	80.5
121	Louisiana	79.5	81.4	80.5	80.5
122	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.8	79.4	80.0
123	Georgia St.	77.1	79.7	77.9	78.2
124	San Jose St.	78.5	79.3	76.7	78.2
125	Connecticut	78.1	78.3	76.8	77.7
126	Charlotte	75.0	77.5	75.3	75.9
127	N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.6	75.4
128	Texas State	70.8	73.9	70.2	71.6
129	Rice	70.6	73.6	69.3	71.2
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.2	69.6

 

PiRate Rating By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.0	112.8	113.1	113.0	1-0	2-0
South Florida	98.3	101.0	99.0	99.4	0-0	3-0
Temple	97.2	97.2	97.6	97.3	0-0	1-2
Cincinnati	93.2	94.8	93.2	93.7	0-0	3-0
East Carolina	85.9	85.1	85.0	85.3	0-0	1-1
Connecticut	78.1	78.3	76.8	77.7	0-1	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.0	107.3	106.3	106.2	0-1	2-1
Houston	102.1	102.9	102.3	102.4	0-0	2-1
Navy	95.5	98.3	95.2	96.4	1-0	2-1
Tulane	94.3	94.6	93.9	94.3	0-0	1-2
Tulsa	91.3	90.1	91.8	91.1	0-0	1-2
SMU	91.5	90.6	90.4	90.8	0-0	0-3
AAC Averages	95.5	96.1	95.4	95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	129.8	126.7	130.5	129.0	0-0	3-0
Boston College	118.2	115.3	118.4	117.3	1-0	3-0
N. Carolina St.	113.6	113.0	113.2	113.3	0-0	2-0
Syracuse	109.0	107.6	108.1	108.2	1-0	3-0
Wake Forest	108.7	106.4	106.3	107.1	0-1	2-1
Florida St.	105.8	104.9	105.1	105.2	0-2	1-2
Louisville	100.4	100.4	99.8	100.2	0-0	2-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	117.9	116.3	117.7	117.3	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	116.5	116.0	116.4	116.3	1-0	2-0
Duke	115.6	113.2	115.2	114.7	0-0	3-0
Georgia Tech	109.3	108.3	108.7	108.8	0-1	1-2
Pittsburgh	102.3	102.0	101.7	102.0	1-0	2-1
Virginia	102.2	102.7	101.1	102.0	0-0	2-1
N. Carolina	100.6	99.5	99.8	100.0	0-0	0-2
ACC Averages	110.7	109.5	110.2	110.1
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.6	121.3	123.2	122.4	1-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	116.4	114.6	116.7	115.9	0-0	3-0
T C U	114.2	113.3	113.2	113.5	0-0	2-1
West Virginia	112.0	111.2	111.4	111.5	0-0	2-0
Texas	111.4	109.9	110.6	110.6	0-0	2-1
Iowa State	110.0	108.0	109.3	109.1	0-1	0-2
Kansas St.	105.5	104.1	104.5	104.7	0-0	2-1
Texas Tech	104.7	103.2	103.4	103.8	0-0	2-1
Baylor	102.3	100.1	101.7	101.4	0-0	2-1
Kansas	100.9	99.8	98.9	99.9	0-0	2-1
Big 12 Averages	110.0	108.5	109.3	109.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	126.2	129.3	128.1	1-0	3-0
Michigan	122.3	121.1	122.8	122.0	0-0	2-1
Penn St.	122.7	119.8	123.2	121.9	0-0	3-0
Michigan St.	122.6	120.3	122.3	121.8	0-0	1-1
Maryland	101.2	99.8	100.3	100.4	0-0	2-1
Indiana	99.1	98.5	98.8	98.8	0-0	3-0
Rutgers	90.5	89.6	88.6	89.6	0-1	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.0	114.3	116.6	116.0	0-0	2-1
Iowa	114.3	111.9	113.7	113.3	0-0	3-0
Northwestern	109.1	107.2	108.9	108.4	1-0	1-2
Minnesota	106.7	106.2	106.6	106.5	0-0	3-0
Purdue	105.0	103.3	104.3	104.2	0-1	0-3
Nebraska	98.4	96.9	96.0	97.1	0-0	0-2
Illinois	93.0	92.9	92.0	92.6	0-0	2-1
Big Ten Averages	109.3	107.7	108.8	108.6
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	98.3	98.8	99.0	98.7	0-0	2-1
Marshall	94.6	97.5	95.8	96.0	0-0	2-0
Middle Tennessee	89.0	90.2	89.9	89.7	0-0	1-2
Florida Int’l.	87.5	91.8	88.3	89.2	1-0	2-1
W. Kentucky	83.1	86.3	84.2	84.5	0-0	0-3
Old Dominion	79.8	83.8	79.6	81.1	0-2	0-3
Charlotte	75.0	77.5	75.3	75.9	1-0	2-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	101.4	104.1	102.2	102.5	0-0	3-0
Louisiana Tech	93.6	96.1	94.8	94.8	0-0	2-0
U A B	88.9	91.1	89.1	89.7	0-0	2-1
Southern Miss.	82.5	85.7	83.0	83.8	0-0	1-1
U T S A	79.4	83.8	80.2	81.2	0-0	0-3
Rice	70.6	73.6	69.3	71.2	0-0	1-2
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.2	69.6	0-0	0-3
CUSA Averages	85.2	88.0	85.7	86.3
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	119.4	115.8	117.8	117.6	x	3-0
BYU	102.2	102.8	102.9	102.6	x	2-1
Army	96.1	96.5	96.0	96.2	x	2-1
Massachusetts	83.2	85.2	84.4	84.3	x	1-3
Liberty	81.2	79.5	81.4	80.7	x	1-1
N. Mexico St.	74.7	76.9	74.6	75.4	x	0-4
Indep. Averages	92.8	92.8	92.9	92.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	95.4	97.7	96.7	96.6	1-0	3-0
Akron	94.4	95.8	94.8	95.0	0-0	2-0
Ohio U	93.9	95.1	94.7	94.6	0-0	1-1
Miami (O)	89.0	90.7	89.7	89.8	0-0	0-3
Bowling Green	83.4	83.4	83.6	83.5	0-0	1-2
Kent St.	80.4	81.4	79.6	80.5	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	96.6	98.3	96.5	97.1	0-0	1-1
Northern Illinois	95.3	96.0	95.1	95.5	1-0	1-2
Eastern Michigan	92.3	93.6	92.9	92.9	0-1	2-1
Western Michigan	90.9	92.5	91.7	91.7	0-0	1-2
Central Michigan	84.0	86.7	84.4	85.0	0-1	0-3
Ball St.	82.1	84.5	81.6	82.7	0-0	1-2
MAC Averages	89.8	91.3	90.1	90.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	113.5	112.7	113.9	113.4	0-0	2-1
Utah St.	103.5	105.0	105.1	104.5	0-0	2-1
Wyoming	96.6	96.5	96.4	96.5	0-0	2-2
Air Force	93.3	93.4	92.8	93.2	0-0	1-1
New Mexico	86.9	88.8	87.2	87.6	0-0	2-1
Colo. State	84.0	84.8	83.9	84.2	0-1	1-3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	110.0	108.3	109.9	109.4	0-0	2-1
San Diego St.	100.2	100.7	101.4	100.7	0-0	2-1
Nevada	91.1	90.9	90.9	91.0	0-0	2-1
U N L V	90.0	91.6	90.5	90.7	0-0	2-1
Hawaii	80.6	82.9	79.4	81.0	1-0	3-1
San Jose St.	78.5	79.3	76.7	78.2	0-0	0-3
MWC Averages	94.0	94.6	94.0	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	126.8	124.4	129.1	126.7	1-0	2-1
Stanford	120.0	117.6	120.5	119.4	1-0	3-0
Oregon	111.4	111.5	112.1	111.7	0-0	3-0
Washington St.	109.1	108.2	108.0	108.4	0-0	3-0
California	109.4	106.6	109.0	108.3	0-0	3-0
Oregon St.	88.0	85.7	86.5	86.7	0-0	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	111.1	109.3	112.0	110.8	0-1	2-1
U S C	108.9	107.0	108.1	108.0	0-1	1-2
Arizona St.	107.3	105.9	106.6	106.6	0-0	2-1
Colorado	101.1	102.7	102.4	102.1	0-0	3-0
Arizona	101.2	99.5	101.1	100.6	0-0	1-2
U C L A	96.2	96.0	93.2	95.1	0-0	0-3
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.2	107.4	107.0
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	132.2	128.4	133.6	131.4	1-0	3-0
Missouri	114.5	113.0	115.7	114.4	0-0	3-0
S. Carolina	112.3	111.1	111.7	111.7	0-1	1-1
Florida	110.8	109.1	111.1	110.3	0-1	2-1
Kentucky	108.8	107.6	108.5	108.3	1-0	3-0
Vanderbilt	102.6	103.4	102.9	103.0	0-0	2-1
Tennessee	96.9	97.3	96.1	96.8	0-0	2-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	139.3	137.2	141.2	139.2	1-0	3-0
Mississippi St.	123.8	121.1	124.4	123.1	0-0	3-0
Auburn	121.4	120.2	123.6	121.7	0-1	2-1
L S U	114.1	114.0	115.2	114.4	1-0	3-0
Texas A&M	113.4	112.2	113.8	113.1	0-0	2-1
Ole Miss	104.0	103.7	104.8	104.1	0-1	2-1
Arkansas	99.7	97.0	98.0	98.2	0-0	1-2
SEC Averages	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	94.5	96.0	95.8	95.4	0-0	1-1
Troy	90.9	92.2	92.3	91.8	0-0	2-1
Georgia Southern	86.3	87.7	86.6	86.9	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.8	79.4	80.0	0-0	2-1
Georgia St.	77.1	79.7	77.9	78.2	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.6	91.0	91.4	90.7	0-0	2-1
UL-Monroe	86.7	86.2	87.3	86.8	0-0	2-1
South Alabama	81.2	83.3	82.0	82.2	1-0	1-2
Louisiana	79.5	81.4	80.5	80.5	0-0	1-1
Texas State	70.8	73.9	70.2	71.6	0-1	1-2
Sun Belt Averages	83.5	85.3	84.3	84.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	113.8	112.5	114.3	113.6
2	ACC	110.7	109.5	110.2	110.1
3	B12	110.0	108.5	109.3	109.3
4	BTEN	109.3	107.7	108.8	108.6
5	P-12	107.5	106.2	107.4	107.0
6	AAC	95.5	96.1	95.4	95.6
7	MWC	94.0	94.6	94.0	94.2
8	IND	92.8	92.8	92.9	92.8
9	MAC	89.8	91.3	90.1	90.4
10	CUSA	85.2	88.0	85.7	86.3
11	SUN	83.5	85.3	84.3	84.4

This Week’s Top 5 Group of 5 Teams

1. South Florida
2. Central Florida
3. North Texas
4. Cincinnati
5. Buffalo

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	San Diego St.	[Northern Illinois]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Central Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Akron	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	UAB	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	MAC	CUSA	Marshall	Western Michigan
Frisco	AAC	MAC	[Utah]	Toledo
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Atlantic
Bahamas	AAC	CUSA	Houston	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Buffalo	Utah St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Memphis	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Navy	[BYU]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Army]	Southern Miss.
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Wake Forest	Indiana
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	California
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[Coastal Carolina]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	South Carolina
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Duke	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Notre Dame	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Boise St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	Auburn
Peach	At-large	At-large	Virginia Tech	Oklahoma St.
Military	AAC	ACC	Cincinnati	Pittsburgh
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Syracuse	Colorado
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Kentucky
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan	Florida
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Oregon	North Texas
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Mississippi St.
PLAYOFFS
Cotton	FBS	PLAYOFF	Penn St.	Georgia
Orange	FBS	PLAYOFF	Alabama	Clemson
Champ. Game		Winners	Alabama	Georgia
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Sweet 16 Games on TV This Week

All times given are Eastern Daylight

Friday Night

Washington State at USC  10:30 PM  on ESPN

USC has dropped consecutive road games, the most previous not being all that close.  With a true freshman quarterback and his top receiver also being a true freshman, can the Trojans score enough points against the Air Raid offense of the Pirate, Mike Leach.

Washington State is 3-0 but has yet to face strong competition, but if the Cougars can win this game, they become a contender for the Pac-12 North Division title.

Saturday
12:00 Noon

Georgia at Missouri  ESPN

Georgia should win this game by playing smashmouth football against a Missouri defense that just gave up a lot of points and yards against Purdue.  However, the Tigers may have overlooked an 0-2 team.  Still, Georgia looks invincible at least until they travel to the Bayou later in the season.

Minnesota at Maryland  BTN

All of a sudden, the Big Ten West looks open for more than one team.  Minnesota is a silent 3-0, and a win in College Park could find the Gophers ranked and in contention for the division flag.

Maryland’s win over Texas would have meant a lot more had they not gotten their Terrapin shell handed to them by lowly Temple.  The Terps must win this game to have any chance at becoming bowl eligible.

Notre Dame at Wake Forest ABC

Notre Dame is a very soft 3-0, and they have played all three games at home.  This will be the Irish’s first road game and first ACC opponent of the season.  They play at a Wake Forest team that made a valiant comeback that came up a bit short against Boston College.  Notre Dame must go 12-0 or 11-1 with a lot of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.

3:30 PM

Clemson at Georgia Tech ABC

We are not going to tell you that this game should be close, but…..

Clemson has not really fired on all cylinders yet.  It can be hard to play two separate offensive game plans every week, and the two quarterback system may prove to be a liability at some point.

The Tigers have been upset both of the last two years in conference play.  We don’t expect this to be one of those games, but we are anxious to see how CU uses their two QBs in conference play.

Georgia Tech’s multiple option offense should be forced into more passing situations against the top defensive front in the nation, but should Clemson’s offense not sustain a good number of drives, the Tigers may give up some points in the second half.

Kansas St. at West Virginia ESPN

West Virginia missed Saturday’s game, and so far teams that had games cancelled have not been all that sharp.  They face a Kansas State team that is going to need to pick up an upset or two to reach bowl eligibility this year.  The Mountaineers need to pick up a statement win in conference play to strike fear in the Oklahoma’s, Oklahoma State’s, and TCU’s.

Texas A&M at Alabama CBS

This week, the Crimson Tide have done something that has not been done in 17 years.  At the end of the 2001 season, National Champion Miami of Florida rated 9.6 points ahead of #2 Oregon.  Alabama is the first team since to be more than a touchdown ahead of the number two team in our ratings.

At this point, we’re not sure the Buffalo Bills could beat Alabama at New Era Field in the snow.  Alabama looked as good if not better than the 1995 Nebraska team that won the national championship with ease.

What makes this game so inviting is that Texas A&M played Clemson a couple weeks ago.  In that game, the Aggies looked like they belonged on the same field with a top 10 team.  If Alabama makes this another laugher, that will tell us all just how far ahead of another potential playoff team they have advanced.

TCU at Texas Fox

These teams don’t particularly care much for each other, and with TCU coming into this game with doubts, while the Longhorns are sky high, it should be quite interesting.  Prior last Saturday, TCU looked like a cinch to win this game according to the ratings.  After the ‘Horns clobbered USC and TCU blew up in a four-minute stretch against Ohio State, this game becomes a toss-up in the ratings.

What’s up for grabs in this game is a chance to become a key contender for the number two spot in the conference standings, which in the Big 12 will get you in the Conference Championship Game.

4 PM

South Carolina at Vanderbilt SEC

South Carolina is another team that had a game cancelled unexpectedly due to the weather.  They have not played since Georgia mutilated them in Columbia.  At this point, the Gamecocks are playing for a Citrus Bowl bid, as Georgia is not going to lose two conference games.

Vanderbilt did everything but outscore Notre Dame in South Bend, Saturday.  The Commodores outgained the Irish by 40 yards, but they suffered a loss of at least 11 points due not being able to hang onto the ball.  If the Commodores can come out with a chip on their shoulders, this can be a close game that could be decided in the final minutes.  However, as long time Commodore fans know, Vanderbilt has been known to come out flat and not show up the week after they experienced a moral victory.

7 PM

Florida at Tennessee ESPN

The winner of this game will earn a bowl bid this year.  That’s more than enough to make a game important, but this is the first chance for two new coaches to get the upper hand over their rival in this big rivalry game.

Tennessee’s defense has looked strong the last two weeks against an FCS team and the #130 FBS team.  How will they look against a better than average SEC offense?  Better yet, if you can only score 24 points at home against UTEP, how are you going to score enough to beat the Gators?

Mississippi St. at Kentucky ESPN2

One of these two teams will be 4-0 after this game, almost assuredly ranked in the top 25, and a serious contender for the Citrus or even Sugar Bowl should Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs.

The win over Florida in Gainesville is looking mighty good for the Wildcats, while Mississippi State looked a lot like Penn State in their last two games, which shouldn’t surprise many people that know that Coach Joe Moorhead was the offensive coordinator in Happy Valley.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma St. FS1

After getting pasted by Ole Miss in week one, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury was square in the middle of a hot seat in Lubbock.  The 63-point showing in a win over Houston has cooled the seat a bit, but the Red Raiders have an uphill climb to find four more wins and get bowl eligible.  Anything short of a bowl bid would most likely be the end of the Kingsbury era.

Oklahoma State looked like a playoff contender in their comfortable win over Boise State.  The Cowboys look like the top contender to their rival Sooners in the Big 12, and if they slow down the Red Raiders and hold them to 28 points or less, while winning by double digits, OSU could move on to a 9-0 start when they go to Norman in November.

 

7:30 PM

Michigan St. at Indiana BTN

Michigan State has been a major disappointment to start this season.  The Spartans had the most experience returning in FBS football this year, off a team that won 10 games last year.  A much closer than expected opening win over Utah State was followed by a loss at Arizona State.  After a week off, they now find themselves travelling into a potential ambush in Bloomington.

Indiana is 3-0 for the first time since 2015 and just the second time in the last nine seasons.  The Hoosiers look like a potential bowl eligible squad, and they basically need to pull off one conference upset to get to 3-6 in the league and guarantee six wins.  Their rebuilt defense is looking strong enough to keep them in this game, and if MSU hasn’t snapped out of their funk, the Hoosiers could surprise and move to 4-0.  The last three times IU began 4-0, they made it to a bowl game.

8:00 PM

Stanford at Oregon ABC

This may be the top game of the weekend.  The winner of this game will be the co-contender with Washington and possibly Washington State for the Pac-12 North flag.  Neither team has been exceptionally strong so far, and Stanford’s win over USC lost a lot of its oomph when USC was clobbered by Texas.  The key to this game may be the health of Bryce Love.  Love did not play against UC-Davis after rushing for 136 yards against USC.  Last year, he torched Oregon with 147 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon’s defense against the run has looked solid this year, while the Ducks’ passing game behind Justin Herbert has been spectacular at times.  The Ducks have had this game circled on their schedule since Spring practice.  The Cardinal have embarrassed the Ducks with consecutive slaughters the last two seasons, and the Ducks will be inspired to shut down Stanford’s running game and force the Cardinal out of their game plan.

8:30 PM

Wisconsin at Iowa Fox

If Wisconsin continues to look lifeless on offense for 20 minutes per game, the Badgers are not going to win the Big Ten West.  They are in a precarious position having to come to Iowa City for a prime time game, where the Hawkeyes enjoy an incredible home field advantage.

Iowa rarely puts up flashy offensive yardage numbers.  But, when you limit opponents to 42 rushing yards and 209 total yards per game, you can win by scoring 24 points and gaining 380 total yards.  They gang tackle and rarely let an opponent get many yards after contact.

10:30 PM

Arizona St. at Washington ESPN

The late game on ESPN is usually exciting, because it involves two teams with wide open offenses from the West Coast.  Also, frequently, these teams cannot play a lot of defense.  This mold was broken Saturday night, when in Washington’s win over Utah in Salt Lake City, the Huskies looked more like their 1959 and 1960 teams that went 10-1.  UW gained just 330 yards and gave up 261 to the Utes.

Arizona State did nothing on the ground against San Diego State, and if the Sun Devils don’t correct this Saturday night, they will get pasted in Seattle.  The ASU passing game cannot pass for 300 yards against the Huskies’ secondary, so if UW can limit ASU’s running game, this could be another one of those 1960-style defensive victories.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 2

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	133.5	131.2	135.4	133.4
2	Clemson	131.9	128.6	132.8	131.1
3	Georgia	131.1	126.5	132.6	130.0
4	Washington	126.9	124.4	129.3	126.8
5	Ohio St.	126.2	123.5	126.8	125.5
6	Michigan St.	124.7	122.4	124.8	124.0
7	Notre Dame	125.7	121.9	124.1	123.9
8	Auburn	123.2	121.8	125.8	123.6
9	Oklahoma	122.5	121.1	123.1	122.2
10	Mississippi St.	122.8	119.5	123.0	121.8
11	Michigan	121.6	120.2	122.3	121.3
12	Wisconsin	121.7	118.6	121.7	120.7
13	Stanford	120.1	117.5	120.7	119.4
14	Boston College	118.1	115.1	118.4	117.2
15	Miami	117.1	115.1	116.7	116.3
16	Virginia Tech	116.1	115.6	116.0	115.9
17	Penn St.	116.7	113.5	117.0	115.7
18	Oregon	114.5	114.6	115.2	114.8
19	Missouri	114.6	112.9	116.2	114.5
20	Northwestern	114.8	112.8	115.2	114.3
21	Boise St.	113.3	112.8	114.3	113.5
22	N. Carolina St.	113.6	112.8	113.4	113.3
23	L S U	112.8	112.9	113.5	113.1
24	Central Florida	113.0	112.8	113.1	113.0
25	Florida	113.4	111.1	113.8	112.7
26	Iowa	113.7	111.2	112.9	112.6
27	T C U	112.9	112.2	111.7	112.2
28	Oklahoma St.	113.2	110.8	112.7	112.2
29	Duke	113.3	110.7	112.4	112.2
30	Georgia Tech	112.5	111.2	112.1	112.0
31	S. Carolina	112.3	111.4	111.6	111.8
32	U S C	112.3	110.7	111.6	111.5
33	Utah	111.5	109.5	112.4	111.2
34	West Virginia	111.6	110.8	111.0	111.1
35	Texas A&M	111.2	110.1	111.2	110.8
36	Iowa State	110.5	108.6	110.0	109.7
37	Florida St.	109.7	109.0	109.3	109.3
38	Texas	109.8	108.3	108.9	109.0
39	California	110.0	107.2	109.6	108.9
40	Ole Miss	107.8	107.5	108.6	107.9
41	Washington St.	108.6	107.7	107.5	107.9
42	Fresno St.	108.5	106.9	108.2	107.9
43	Arkansas	109.4	106.5	107.7	107.9
44	Wake Forest	108.7	106.5	106.2	107.1
45	Purdue	107.9	106.1	106.8	106.9
46	Memphis	105.2	107.3	106.7	106.4
47	Kansas St.	106.8	105.4	106.2	106.1
48	Arizona St.	106.7	105.2	105.6	105.8
49	Minnesota	106.0	105.2	105.5	105.6
50	Kentucky	106.0	104.9	105.4	105.4
51	Arizona	106.1	104.1	106.0	105.4
52	Syracuse	106.3	104.7	105.1	105.4
53	Pittsburgh	105.5	105.2	104.7	105.2
54	N. Carolina	105.3	104.3	104.7	104.8
55	Maryland	104.6	102.8	103.4	103.6
56	Louisville	103.6	103.4	103.0	103.3
57	Texas Tech	103.2	101.3	101.4	102.0
58	Baylor	102.7	100.4	102.1	101.7
59	Colorado	100.6	102.3	102.0	101.6
60	Virginia	101.9	102.4	100.3	101.5
61	Utah St.	100.3	101.5	101.9	101.2
62	Houston	99.1	100.6	99.8	99.8
63	Florida Atlantic	99.3	99.9	100.3	99.8
64	Vanderbilt	99.1	100.1	99.2	99.5
65	San Diego St.	98.9	99.5	100.1	99.5
66	BYU	99.0	99.8	99.6	99.4
67	Nebraska	100.3	98.5	97.6	98.8
68	U C L A	98.9	98.7	96.3	97.9
69	Wyoming	98.0	98.1	97.8	97.9
70	Toledo	97.0	99.1	97.1	97.7
71	South Florida	95.8	99.1	96.7	97.2
72	Rutgers	98.1	97.1	96.2	97.1
73	Indiana	97.6	96.5	97.1	97.1
74	N. Texas	95.8	98.7	96.6	97.0
75	Tennessee	96.9	97.2	96.2	96.8
76	Marshall	94.7	97.6	95.9	96.1
77	Northern Illinois	95.8	96.7	95.7	96.1
78	Army	95.6	96.1	95.5	95.8
79	Buffalo	94.5	96.9	95.6	95.7
80	Tulane	95.5	95.6	95.1	95.4
81	Ohio U	94.4	95.8	95.7	95.3
82	Navy	94.5	97.3	93.8	95.2
83	Louisiana Tech	93.3	95.8	94.5	94.5
84	Nevada	93.7	93.8	93.9	93.8
85	Temple	93.3	93.3	93.7	93.4
86	U A B	91.8	94.3	92.2	92.8
87	Air Force	92.7	92.7	91.9	92.4
88	Western Michigan	91.4	93.3