PiRate College Football Ratings: September 16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	September 19
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Houston	7.1	6.3	4.7

 

Friday	September 20
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
La. Tech	Florida Int’l.	3.9	3.8	3.6
USC	Utah	-6.3	-3.8	-6.1
Boise St.	Air Force	10.8	9.0	10.4

 

Saturday	September 21
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida	Tennessee	16.0	13.6	16.9
Indiana	Connecticut	35.9	29.9	35.8
Rutgers	Boston College	-5.2	-5.0	-6.0
Syracuse	Western Mich.	6.2	6.6	5.8
Alabama	Southern Miss.	43.5	42.0	44.3
Iowa St.	UL-Monroe	22.3	21.8	21.9
Northwestern	Michigan St.	-3.7	-4.1	-5.0
Ole Miss	California	-2.4	-3.0	-4.6
Vanderbilt	LSU	-21.1	-19.5	-21.0
Wisconsin	Michigan	0.5	2.3	0.1
Massachusetts	Coastal Car.	-13.5	-12.2	-13.4
Ohio	Louisiana	3.7	2.4	5.6
Akron	Troy	-14.3	-14.3	-13.6
Buffalo	Temple	-15.1	-13.4	-15.5
Florida St.	Louisville	9.4	10.1	9.9
North Carolina	Appy St.	-0.4	2.1	1.6
Ohio St.	Miami (O)	40.6	40.8	40.9
Pittsburgh	Central Fla.	-3.1	-2.6	-4.9
TCU	SMU	4.3	8.2	3.9
Texas A&M	Auburn	5.0	5.3	4.6
Tulsa	Wyoming	0.0	-1.8	0.1
UAB	S. Alabama	12.0	10.4	13.6
BYU	Washington	-8.3	-7.7	-9.2
Kent St.	Bowling Green	11.4	11.5	11.7
Miami (Fla.)	Central Mich.	35.7	33.8	36.6
Mississippi St.	Kentucky	10.0	6.9	10.7
Missouri	South Carolina	5.7	4.7	6.0
Kansas	West Virginia	-5.7	-4.3	-5.5
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	6.4	7.5	6.1
N. Carolina St.	Ball St.	18.8	19.3	19.7
Virginia	Old Dominion	32.6	32.7	32.5
Rice	Baylor	-31.7	-30.5	-32.3
Stanford	Oregon	-8.2	-9.2	-9.5
Texas St.	Georgia St.	-0.5	-0.9	0.4
Clemson	Charlotte	48.5	44.4	48.8
Arkansas	San Jose St.	18.6	17.4	18.9
North Texas	UTSA	18.1	15.0	19.3
Texas	Oklahoma St.	5.1	4.5	5.3
Georgia	Notre Dame	9.3	9.6	9.7
Illinois	Nebraska	-6.4	-6.9	-7.0
UTEP	Nevada	-21.9	-18.1	-21.3
Arizona St.	Colorado	10.6	9.8	11.1
Colorado St.	Toledo	-9.1	-5.3	-10.4
San Diego St.	Utah St.	-5.4	-2.2	-6.9
Washington St.	UCLA	16.8	16.4	18.3

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor		PiRate
Army	Morgan St.		41
Wake Forest	Elon		30
Eastern Michigan	Central Conn.		31
Florida Atlantic	Wagner		35
Liberty	Hampton		29
East Carolina	William & Mary		16
Arkansas St.	Southern Illinois		22
Fresno St.	Sacramento St.		30
Hawaii	Central Arkansas		20

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.9	132.3	137.0	135.0
2	Clemson	134.5	131.2	135.4	133.7
3	Ohio St.	128.7	127.1	129.2	128.3
4	Georgia	127.5	125.8	128.1	127.1
5	L S U	126.0	123.3	124.8	124.7
6	Oklahoma	122.3	121.4	122.2	122.0
7	Notre Dame	121.2	119.2	121.4	120.6
8	Michigan	119.6	117.5	119.9	119.0
9	Florida	119.9	117.1	119.1	118.7
10	Texas A&M	119.4	117.8	118.3	118.5
11	Wisconsin	117.1	116.8	117.0	117.0
12	Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6
13	Auburn	117.4	115.5	116.8	116.6
14	Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0
15	Michigan St.	116.1	115.6	116.3	116.0
16	Penn St.	116.4	115.3	116.0	115.9
17	Iowa	115.7	113.7	115.8	115.0
18	Missouri	114.9	112.3	115.0	114.1
19	Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8
20	Mississippi St.	115.0	110.7	114.4	113.4
21	Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6
22	Central Florida	112.1	111.3	113.5	112.3
23	Texas	112.3	112.3	112.2	112.3
24	Baylor	111.9	112.1	111.6	111.9
25	Kansas St.	111.8	111.5	111.8	111.7
26	South Carolina	112.2	110.6	112.0	111.6
27	Miami (Fla.)	110.4	109.5	111.5	110.5
28	Oklahoma St.	110.2	110.9	109.9	110.3
29	Iowa St.	110.2	110.4	109.9	110.2
30	Northwestern	109.9	109.0	108.8	109.2
31	Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1
32	Minnesota	109.4	108.7	108.0	108.7
33	Maryland	109.1	108.5	108.3	108.6
34	California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0
35	U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6
36	Kentucky	108.0	106.8	106.7	107.2
37	Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0
38	Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0
39	T C U	105.2	108.8	105.7	106.6
40	Utah St.	106.3	105.1	107.7	106.3
41	Indiana	107.3	105.4	106.0	106.2
42	Tennessee	106.8	106.5	105.2	106.2
43	Boise St.	106.1	105.4	106.4	106.0
44	Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	105.6	105.7
45	Purdue	105.5	105.5	105.0	105.3
46	Texas Tech	105.6	105.8	104.6	105.3
47	Memphis	105.0	104.8	106.1	105.3
48	Duke	105.2	104.7	105.1	105.0
49	Syracuse	105.2	104.6	105.0	104.9
50	Cincinnati	105.1	103.5	105.2	104.6
51	Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6
52	West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3
53	Appalachian St.	105.2	103.3	104.4	104.3
54	Wake Forest	103.9	103.4	104.5	103.9
55	Virginia Tech	103.4	103.6	103.7	103.6
56	North Carolina	102.8	103.4	104.0	103.4
57	Temple	103.3	102.3	104.5	103.4
58	Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7
59	Vanderbilt	103.4	102.2	102.3	102.6
60	North Carolina St.	102.4	102.3	102.9	102.5
61	Florida St.	102.4	102.7	102.2	102.5
62	BYU	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4
63	SMU	102.0	101.5	102.8	102.1
64	Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	102.2	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.3	101.5	101.3	101.7
66	Army	101.5	101.6	101.1	101.4
67	Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.9	100.6
68	Tulane	100.2	100.6	100.6	100.5
69	Fresno St.	100.0	100.6	100.7	100.4
70	Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5
71	Air Force	98.2	99.4	99.1	98.9
72	San Diego St.	97.9	99.8	97.8	98.5
73	Arkansas	98.3	99.2	97.7	98.4
74	U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4
75	Houston	96.1	97.3	98.9	97.4
76	Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.2	97.2
77	Ohio	96.6	95.6	97.9	96.7
78	Wyoming	95.4	97.6	96.0	96.3
79	Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2
80	Georgia Southern	96.4	95.7	95.8	96.0
81	Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0
82	Louisiana	95.9	96.2	95.3	95.8
83	Louisville	96.1	95.7	95.3	95.7
84	Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5
85	Georgia Tech	95.7	93.8	96.2	95.2
86	Southern Miss.	95.4	93.2	95.7	94.8
87	Troy	94.5	94.7	93.4	94.2
88	Marshall	93.4	92.9	94.6	93.6
89	Northern Illinois	93.7	92.6	93.8	93.4
90	North Texas	92.8	92.1	93.7	92.9
91	Tulsa	92.4	92.9	93.1	92.8
92	Toledo	92.1	92.3	93.2	92.5
93	Rutgers	92.3	92.3	91.9	92.2
94	Nevada	91.3	93.0	91.1	91.8
95	South Florida	91.0	92.0	91.3	91.4
96	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2
97	Louisiana-Monroe	90.8	91.6	91.0	91.1
98	Eastern Michigan	90.7	91.1	91.4	91.1
99	Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.7	91.0	90.9
100	Navy	89.8	92.8	89.6	90.8
101	Florida Atlantic	90.4	89.7	91.1	90.4
102	Middle Tennessee	90.4	89.5	90.5	90.1
103	Florida Int’l.	89.6	89.3	89.9	89.6
104	Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.3	90.4	89.6
105	Liberty	88.5	89.7	88.9	89.0
106	Charlotte	88.1	88.8	88.6	88.5
107	Western Kentucky	86.3	87.0	87.6	86.9
108	U A B	85.7	87.4	86.3	86.5
109	Ball St.	86.6	86.0	86.1	86.2
110	Buffalo	85.8	86.4	86.5	86.2
111	Georgia St.	85.9	87.2	84.9	86.0
112	U N L V	84.9	87.0	84.9	85.6
113	Kent St.	85.3	85.2	85.6	85.4
114	Coastal Carolina	84.1	85.3	83.2	84.2
115	Texas St.	82.9	83.8	82.8	83.2
116	San Jose St.	82.8	84.8	81.9	83.2
117	New Mexico	82.2	85.5	81.4	83.1
118	East Carolina	82.2	84.3	81.7	82.7
119	Colorado St.	79.9	84.0	79.8	81.2
120	Rice	78.7	80.1	77.8	78.9
121	Central Michigan	77.8	78.7	77.9	78.1
122	Old Dominion	77.8	78.2	78.0	78.0
123	Akron	77.7	78.0	77.3	77.6
124	Texas-San Antonio	76.7	79.2	76.4	77.4
125	New Mexico St.	76.8	79.0	76.4	77.4
126	South Alabama	75.2	78.5	74.2	76.0
127	Bowling Green	75.9	75.7	75.9	75.9
128	Connecticut	74.4	78.5	73.2	75.4
129	U T E P	66.9	72.4	67.3	68.8
130	Massachusetts	68.1	70.6	67.3	68.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	112.1	111.3	113.5	112.3	0-0	3-0
Cincinnati	105.1	103.5	105.2	104.6	0-0	2-1
Temple	103.3	102.3	104.5	103.4	0-0	2-0
South Florida	91.0	92.0	91.3	91.4	0-0	1-2
East Carolina	82.2	84.3	81.7	82.7	0-1	1-2
Connecticut	74.4	78.5	73.2	75.4	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	105.0	104.8	106.1	105.3	0-0	3-0
SMU	102.0	101.5	102.8	102.1	0-0	3-0
Tulane	100.2	100.6	100.6	100.5	0-0	2-1
Houston	96.1	97.3	98.9	97.4	0-0	1-2
Tulsa	92.4	92.9	93.1	92.8	0-0	1-2
Navy	89.8	92.8	89.6	90.8	1-0	2-0
AAC Averages	96.1	96.8	96.7	96.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.5	131.2	135.4	133.7	2-0	3-0
Syracuse	105.2	104.6	105.0	104.9	0-1	1-2
Wake Forest	103.9	103.4	104.5	103.9	0-0	3-0
North Carolina St.	102.4	102.3	102.9	102.5	0-0	2-1
Florida St.	102.4	102.7	102.2	102.5	0-1	1-2
Boston College	100.5	100.3	100.9	100.6	1-0	2-1
Louisville	96.1	95.7	95.3	95.7	0-0	2-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	110.4	109.5	111.5	110.5	0-1	1-2
Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1	2-0	3-0
Pittsburgh	106.0	105.6	105.6	105.7	0-1	1-2
Duke	105.2	104.7	105.1	105.0	0-0	2-1
Virginia Tech	103.4	103.6	103.7	103.6	0-1	2-1
North Carolina	102.8	103.4	104.0	103.4	1-0	2-1
Georgia Tech	95.7	93.8	96.2	95.2	0-1	1-2
ACC Averages	105.5	105.0	105.8	105.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.3	121.4	122.2	122.0	0-0	3-0
Texas	112.3	112.3	112.2	112.3	0-0	2-1
Baylor	111.9	112.1	111.6	111.9	0-0	2-0
Kansas St.	111.8	111.5	111.8	111.7	0-0	3-0
Oklahoma St.	110.2	110.9	109.9	110.3	0-0	3-0
Iowa St.	110.2	110.4	109.9	110.2	0-0	1-1
T C U	105.2	108.8	105.7	106.6	0-0	2-0
Texas Tech	105.6	105.8	104.6	105.3	0-0	2-1
West Virginia	104.6	104.2	104.2	104.3	0-0	2-1
Kansas	95.9	96.9	95.7	96.2	0-0	2-1
Big 12 Averages	109.0	109.4	108.8	109.1
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	128.7	127.1	129.2	128.3	1-0	3-0
Michigan	119.6	117.5	119.9	119.0	0-0	2-0
Michigan St.	116.1	115.6	116.3	116.0	0-0	2-1
Penn St.	116.4	115.3	116.0	115.9	0-0	3-0
Maryland	109.1	108.5	108.3	108.6	0-0	2-1
Indiana	107.3	105.4	106.0	106.2	0-1	2-1
Rutgers	92.3	92.3	91.9	92.2	0-1	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	117.1	116.8	117.0	117.0	0-0	2-0
Iowa	115.7	113.7	115.8	115.0	1-0	3-0
Northwestern	109.9	109.0	108.8	109.2	0-0	1-1
Minnesota	109.4	108.7	108.0	108.7	0-0	3-0
Nebraska	106.7	108.0	106.3	107.0	0-0	2-1
Purdue	105.5	105.5	105.0	105.3	0-0	1-2
Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.2	97.2	0-0	2-1
Big Ten Averages	110.8	110.1	110.3	110.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.4	92.9	94.6	93.6	0-0	2-1
Florida Atlantic	90.4	89.7	91.1	90.4	0-0	1-2
Middle Tennessee	90.4	89.5	90.5	90.1	0-0	1-2
Florida Int’l.	89.6	89.3	89.9	89.6	0-1	1-2
Charlotte	88.1	88.8	88.6	88.5	0-0	2-1
Western Kentucky	86.3	87.0	87.6	86.9	1-0	1-2
Old Dominion	77.8	78.2	78.0	78.0	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	95.4	93.2	95.7	94.8	0-0	2-1
North Texas	92.8	92.1	93.7	92.9	0-0	1-2
Louisiana Tech	91.0	90.7	91.0	90.9	0-0	2-1
U A B	85.7	87.4	86.3	86.5	0-0	2-0
Rice	78.7	80.1	77.8	78.9	0-0	0-3
Texas-San Antonio	76.7	79.2	76.4	77.4	0-0	1-2
U T E P	66.9	72.4	67.3	68.8	0-0	1-1
CUSA Averages	85.9	86.5	86.3	86.2
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.2	119.2	121.4	120.6	x	2-0
BYU	102.3	102.4	102.5	102.4	x	2-1
Army	101.5	101.6	101.1	101.4	x	2-1
Liberty	88.5	89.7	88.9	89.0	x	1-2
New Mexico St.	76.8	79.0	76.4	77.4	x	0-3
Massachusetts	68.1	70.6	67.3	68.7	x	0-3
Indep. Averages	93.1	93.7	92.9	93.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.6	95.6	97.9	96.7	0-0	1-2
Miami (Ohio)	90.1	88.3	90.4	89.6	0-0	1-2
Buffalo	85.8	86.4	86.5	86.2	0-0	1-2
Kent St.	85.3	85.2	85.6	85.4	0-0	1-2
Akron	77.7	78.0	77.3	77.6	0-1	0-3
Bowling Green	75.9	75.7	75.9	75.9	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	102.0	100.9	102.2	101.7	0-0	2-1
Northern Illinois	93.7	92.6	93.8	93.4	0-0	1-2
Toledo	92.1	92.3	93.2	92.5	0-0	1-1
Eastern Michigan	90.7	91.1	91.4	91.1	0-0	2-1
Ball St.	86.6	86.0	86.1	86.2	0-0	1-2
Central Michigan	77.8	78.7	77.9	78.1	1-0	2-1
MAC Averages	87.9	87.6	88.2	87.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	106.3	105.1	107.7	106.3	0-0	1-1
Boise St.	106.1	105.4	106.4	106.0	0-0	3-0
Air Force	98.2	99.4	99.1	98.9	0-0	2-0
Wyoming	95.4	97.6	96.0	96.3	0-0	3-0
New Mexico	82.2	85.5	81.4	83.1	0-0	1-1
Colorado St.	79.9	84.0	79.8	81.2	0-0	1-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	100.0	100.6	100.7	100.4	0-0	0-2
San Diego St.	97.9	99.8	97.8	98.5	0-0	3-0
Hawaii	95.7	97.3	94.9	96.0	0-0	2-1
Nevada	91.3	93.0	91.1	91.8	0-0	2-1
U N L V	84.9	87.0	84.9	85.6	0-0	1-2
San Jose St.	82.8	84.8	81.9	83.2	0-0	1-1
MWC Averages	93.4	95.0	93.5	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.2	116.2	117.3	116.6	0-0	2-1
Washington	113.6	113.1	114.7	113.8	0-1	2-1
Washington St.	112.8	112.0	113.1	112.6	0-0	3-0
California	107.6	107.5	108.9	108.0	1-0	3-0
Stanford	105.0	104.0	104.8	104.6	0-1	1-2
Oregon St.	95.5	96.8	94.3	95.5	0-0	1-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0	0-0	3-0
U S C	107.1	108.1	107.6	107.6	1-0	2-1
Arizona St.	107.0	106.2	107.6	107.0	0-0	3-0
Arizona	102.5	102.7	102.8	102.7	0-0	2-1
Colorado	99.5	99.4	99.6	99.5	0-0	2-1
U C L A	98.9	98.5	97.8	98.4	0-0	0-3
Pac-12 Averages	106.8	106.6	107.1	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	127.5	125.8	128.1	127.1	1-0	3-0
Florida	119.9	117.1	119.1	118.7	1-0	3-0
Missouri	114.9	112.3	115.0	114.1	0-0	2-1
South Carolina	112.2	110.6	112.0	111.6	0-1	1-2
Kentucky	108.0	106.8	106.7	107.2	0-1	2-1
Tennessee	106.8	106.5	105.2	106.2	0-0	1-2
Vanderbilt	103.4	102.2	102.3	102.6	0-1	0-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.9	132.3	137.0	135.0	1-0	3-0
L S U	126.0	123.3	124.8	124.7	0-0	3-0
Texas A&M	119.4	117.8	118.3	118.5	0-0	2-1
Auburn	117.4	115.5	116.8	116.6	0-0	3-0
Mississippi St.	115.0	110.7	114.4	113.4	0-0	2-1
Ole Miss	102.3	101.5	101.3	101.7	1-0	2-1
Arkansas	98.3	99.2	97.7	98.4	0-1	2-1
SEC Averages	114.8	113.0	114.2	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.2	103.3	104.4	104.3	0-0	2-0
Georgia Southern	96.4	95.7	95.8	96.0	0-0	1-2
Troy	94.5	94.7	93.4	94.2	0-0	1-1
Georgia St.	85.9	87.2	84.9	86.0	0-0	2-1
Coastal Carolina	84.1	85.3	83.2	84.2	0-0	2-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	95.9	96.2	95.3	95.8	0-0	2-1
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2	0-0	1-2
Louisiana-Monroe	90.8	91.6	91.0	91.1	0-0	1-1
Texas St.	82.9	83.8	82.8	83.2	0-0	0-3
South Alabama	75.2	78.5	74.2	76.0	0-0	1-2
SBC Averages	90.2	90.8	89.6	90.2

 

Bowl & Playoff Projections

Once again this week, our fearless bowl projections show a lot of at-large teams needed to fill spots.  This week, the number is eight teams.  The Southeastern Conference is looking like an eight-bid league this year, and the league will most likely have 12 spots to fill.  With Alabama, Georgia, and LSU looking like teams that will play in New Year’s Six Bowls or Playoffs, and with Missouri not eligible for a bowl this year, there will probably be just five other bowl eligible teams in the premiere league in FBS Football.  Texas A&M, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Kentucky should become bowl eligible, but Ole Miss, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt don’t look like they have the strength to reach six wins.

The Big Ten might benefit by an extra bid if Indiana and Northwestern can get to 6-6.  Illinois, Rutgers, and Purdue look like they could supply a little fodder for the other 11 teams to pick up conference wins and allow 11 to become bowl eligible, when only 10 teams will have guaranteed bowl spots.  It figures that if any Big Ten team remains with at-large bowl bids available, the Big Ten will be at the top of the at-large lists.

The Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt Conferences look like they will have extra bowl eligible teams this year, but at this point of the season, some of these teams may be bowl eligible but not get an invitations.

Here’s our look at the Bowls and Playoffs this week.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Houston	[UAB]
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Western Michigan]	Troy
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Toledo
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
Las Vegas	MWC #1	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	North Texas	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Navy	Charlotte
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	SMU
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	[Army]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina St.	Northwestern
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	North Carolina	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Michigan
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	[Hawaii]
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Kansas St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	California
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Louisiana Tech	[Nevada]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Indiana]	Syracuse
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	Kentucky
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	[Wyoming]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Louisiana	San Diego St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Washington
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Iowa
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Texas A&M
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Georgia
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Duke]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Auburn	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Nebraska	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio	Georgia Southern
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Alabama	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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PiRate College Football Ratings: September 9, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday	September 13
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wake Forest (x)	North Carolina	2.0	0.5	0.8
Boston College	Kansas	15.2	13.8	16.4
Houston	Washington St.	-14.3	-12.3	-12.0
Saturday	September 14
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia	Arkansas St.	34.6	32.3	35.2
Mississippi St.	Kansas St.	9.4	4.9	9.1
West Virginia	North Carolina St.	2.9	2.5	1.5
Penn St.	Pittsburgh	12.8	12.2	13.3
Illinois	Eastern Michigan	12.5	13.4	11.0
Indiana	Ohio St.	-11.3	-11.3	-12.9
Temple	Maryland	-4.7	-5.5	-2.5
Cincinnati	Miami (O)	15.9	16.0	15.3
Colorado	Air Force	3.6	2.2	3.1
Ball St.	Florida Atlantic	-0.1	0.4	-0.9
Notre Dame	New Mexico	40.1	35.2	40.6
Central Michigan	Akron	-1.3	-0.7	-1.2
South Carolina	Alabama	-20.5	-18.1	-21.4
Central Florida	Stanford	8.7	8.7	10.1
BYU	USC	-2.0	-3.3	-2.7
UTSA	Army	-22.9	-20.5	-23.1
Tulsa	Oklahoma St.	-16.6	-16.6	-15.2
Minnesota	Georgia Southern	17.7	17.9	17.2
Northwestern	UNLV	29.5	26.3	28.5
South Alabama	Memphis	-24.9	-20.8	-27.0
Navy	East Carolina	5.3	6.1	5.2
Arkansas	Colorado St.	20.7	17.2	19.6
Michigan St.	Arizona St.	14.8	15.4	14.8
Louisville (n)	Western Kentucky	8.5	7.1	5.7
Iowa St.	Iowa	-4.0	-1.4	-3.9
California	North Texas	19.7	20.5	20.4
Bowling Green	Lousiana Tech	-8.2	-7.9	-7.8
Liberty	Buffalo	2.3	2.7	1.2
Charlotte	Massachusetts	19.4	17.0	20.3
Troy	Southern Miss.	2.8	6.0	1.6
Marshall	Ohio	-0.4	0.3	-0.7
Auburn	Kent St.	34.3	31.8	33.2
Kentucky	Florida	-8.8	-7.1	-9.0
Middle Tennessee	Duke	-9.5	-9.8	-9.1
SMU	Texas St.	19.2	17.4	19.7
Western Michigan	Georgia St.	12.5	9.5	13.5
Washington	Hawaii	19.1	16.4	20.6
Syracuse	Clemson	-24.9	-21.7	-25.6
Virginia	Florida St.	9.0	9.2	9.4
Purdue	TCU	11.0	7.1	10.4
UCLA	Oklahoma	–16.1	-15.4	-16.7
New Mexico St.	San Diego St.	-18.4	-18.2	-18.7
Rice (n)	Texas	-32.9	-31.1	-33.2
Nebraska	Northern Illinois	13.3	16.0	12.5
Arizona	Texas Tech	-3.8	-4.0	-2.6

 

(x) The North Carolina vs. Wake Forest game does not count as an Atlantic Coast Conference Game.  It is a non-conference game and will have no effect on the conference standings.

(n) The Rice and Texas game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.  Even though Rice is in Houston, we expect more Texas fans at this game and thus have it listed as no home field advantage for Rice.

The Louisville and Western Kentucky game will be played at Nissan Stadium in Nashville and is a true neutral site game.

 

FBS vs. FCS
Home	Visitor		PiRate
Tennessee	Chattanooga		24
Virginia Tech	Furman		26
Georgia Tech	The Citadel		31
Coastal Carolina	Norfolk St.		27
Ole Miss	SE Louisiana		26
Miami (Fla.)	Bethune-Cookman		36
Oregon St.	Cal Poly		16
Utah	Idaho St.		35
Wyoming	Idaho		28
South Florida	South Carolina St.		23
Texas A&M	Lamar		39
Nevada	Weber St.		13
Florida Int’l.	New Hampshire		16
Toledo	Murray St.		27
LSU	Northwestern St.		50
Missouri	SE Missouri St.		34
Louisiana	Texas Southern		39
Tulane	Missouri St.		28
Boise St.	Portland St.		34
Oregon	Montana		29

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	111.4	110.5	112.7	111.5	0-0	2-0
Cincinnati	104.8	103.1	104.7	104.2	0-0	1-1
Temple	102.6	101.4	103.9	102.6	0-0	1-0
South Florida	90.7	91.7	91.0	91.1	0-0	0-2
East Carolina	84.9	87.0	84.6	85.5	0-0	1-1
Connecticut	74.2	78.3	73.0	75.2	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	103.8	103.3	104.9	104.0	0-0	2-0
SMU	100.8	100.1	101.4	100.8	0-0	2-0
Tulane	98.9	99.3	99.3	99.2	0-0	1-1
Houston	95.8	97.0	98.5	97.1	0-0	1-1
Tulsa	92.5	93.1	93.4	93.0	0-0	1-1
Navy	87.1	90.1	86.7	88.0	0-0	1-0
AAC Averages	95.6	96.2	96.2	96.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.8	130.2	134.5	132.9	1-0	2-0
Syracuse	105.9	105.6	105.9	105.8	0-0	1-1
Boston College	104.8	104.5	105.5	104.9	1-0	2-0
North Carolina St.	103.5	103.5	104.3	103.8	0-0	2-0
Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.9	103.5	0-0	2-0
Florida St.	102.9	103.2	102.7	103.0	0-0	1-1
Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9	0-0	1-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	109.4	108.5	110.5	109.5	0-1	0-2
Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1	1-0	2-0
Pittsburgh	105.8	105.3	105.2	105.4	0-1	1-1
Virginia Tech	104.6	104.8	104.9	104.8	0-1	1-1
North Carolina	103.1	103.9	104.6	103.9	1-0	2-0
Duke	103.7	103.1	103.4	103.4	0-0	1-1
Georgia Tech	99.0	97.1	99.5	98.5	0-1	1-1
ACC Averages	106.0	105.5	106.3	105.9
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	120.4	119.4	120.1	120.0	0-0	2-0
Texas	112.1	111.9	111.8	111.9	0-0	1-1
Baylor	111.6	111.8	111.3	111.6	0-0	2-0
Iowa St.	110.2	110.6	110.1	110.3	0-0	1-0
Oklahoma St.	110.1	110.7	109.6	110.1	0-0	2-0
Kansas St.	110.1	110.0	109.9	110.0	0-0	2-0
Texas Tech	107.6	107.9	106.7	107.4	0-0	2-0
West Virginia	103.5	103.0	102.8	103.1	0-0	1-1
T C U	101.3	105.1	101.7	102.7	0-0	1-0
Kansas	92.6	93.7	92.1	92.8	0-0	1-1
Big 12 Averages	107.9	108.4	107.6	108.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	124.9	123.2	125.3	124.5	0-0	2-0
Michigan	119.3	117.2	119.6	118.7	0-0	2-0
Michigan St.	117.8	117.5	118.2	117.8	0-0	2-0
Penn St.	116.6	115.6	116.4	116.2	0-0	2-0
Indiana	110.6	108.8	109.4	109.6	0-0	2-0
Maryland	109.8	109.4	108.9	109.4	0-0	2-0
Rutgers	92.0	92.0	91.6	91.9	0-1	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	116.8	116.5	116.7	116.7	0-0	2-0
Iowa	115.2	113.0	115.1	114.4	1-0	2-0
Northwestern	110.9	109.9	109.9	110.2	0-0	0-1
Minnesota	110.5	109.9	109.3	109.9	0-0	2-0
Purdue	109.4	109.2	109.0	109.2	0-0	1-1
Nebraska	105.4	106.8	104.8	105.7	0-0	1-1
Illinois	98.7	99.8	97.8	98.8	0-0	2-0
Big Ten Averages	111.3	110.6	110.9	110.9
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.3	92.9	94.4	93.5	0-0	1-1
Middle Tennessee	91.6	90.8	91.9	91.4	0-0	1-1
Florida Int’l.	89.7	89.4	90.0	89.7	0-1	0-2
Florida Atlantic	89.8	88.9	90.3	89.7	0-0	0-2
Western Kentucky	86.9	87.8	88.6	87.7	1-0	1-1
Charlotte	86.8	87.2	87.1	87.0	0-0	1-1
Old Dominion	77.6	78.0	77.8	77.8	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.8	92.2	95.0	94.0	0-0	1-1
North Texas	91.7	90.9	92.4	91.7	0-0	1-1
Louisiana Tech	89.1	88.7	88.9	88.9	0-0	1-1
U A B	85.5	87.2	86.1	86.3	0-0	2-0
Rice	79.2	80.8	78.5	79.5	0-0	0-2
Texas-San Antonio	76.6	79.1	76.1	77.2	0-0	1-1
U T E P	66.7	72.2	67.1	68.6	0-0	1-1
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.2	86.0	85.9
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.4	118.6	120.4	119.8	x	1-0
BYU	102.2	102.1	102.2	102.2	x	1-1
Army	101.9	102.0	101.7	101.9	x	1-1
Liberty	86.9	88.0	86.9	87.2	x	0-2
New Mexico St.	76.9	79.1	76.5	77.5	x	0-2
Massachusetts	69.9	72.7	69.3	70.6	x	0-2
Indep. Averages	93.0	93.7	92.8	93.2
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.7	95.6	98.1	96.8	0-0	1-1
Miami (Ohio)	90.4	88.7	90.9	90.0	0-0	1-1
Buffalo	87.1	87.8	88.2	87.7	0-0	1-1
Kent St.	85.7	85.9	86.1	85.9	0-0	1-1
Akron	79.8	80.1	79.6	79.8	0-0	0-2
Bowling Green	77.8	77.7	78.0	77.9	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	98.2	96.8	98.3	97.8	0-0	1-1
Northern Illinois	95.0	93.8	95.3	94.7	0-0	1-1
Toledo	91.4	91.6	92.5	91.8	0-0	0-1
Eastern Michigan	89.2	89.4	89.8	89.5	0-0	1-1
Ball St.	87.2	86.8	86.9	87.0	0-0	1-1
Central Michigan	76.0	76.9	75.9	76.2	0-0	1-1
MAC Averages	87.9	87.6	88.3	87.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	106.1	104.9	107.5	106.1	0-0	1-1
Boise St.	106.0	105.3	106.3	105.9	0-0	2-0
Air Force	97.9	99.2	98.7	98.6	0-0	1-0
Wyoming	96.4	98.6	97.0	97.3	0-0	2-0
New Mexico	83.3	86.4	82.7	84.2	0-0	1-0
Colorado St.	80.5	84.8	80.7	82.0	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.8	100.4	100.5	100.2	0-0	0-2
San Diego St.	97.8	99.7	97.7	98.4	0-0	2-0
Hawaii	97.1	99.0	96.5	97.5	0-0	2-0
Nevada	91.4	93.1	91.2	91.9	0-0	1-1
U N L V	84.4	86.6	84.3	85.1	0-0	1-1
San Jose St.	82.6	84.6	81.7	83.0	0-0	1-1
MWC Averages	93.6	95.2	93.7	94.2
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	116.1	116.1	117.2	116.5	0-0	1-1
Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0	0-0	2-0
Washington	112.2	111.4	113.1	112.2	0-1	1-1
California	108.4	108.4	109.9	108.9	1-0	2-0
Stanford	106.2	105.3	106.1	105.9	0-1	1-1
Oregon St.	94.8	96.1	93.6	94.8	0-0	0-2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.5	114.8	116.7	116.0	0-0	2-0
U S C	107.2	108.4	107.9	107.9	1-0	2-0
Arizona St.	106.0	105.0	106.4	105.8	0-0	2-0
U C L A	101.3	101.0	100.4	100.9	0-0	0-2
Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9	0-0	1-1
Colorado	100.1	99.9	100.3	100.1	0-0	2-0
Pac-12 Averages	106.9	106.6	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.4	123.4	125.8	124.9	1-0	2-0
Florida	120.2	117.3	119.2	118.9	0-0	2-0
Missouri	114.4	111.8	114.5	113.6	0-0	1-1
South Carolina	112.3	110.9	112.3	111.8	0-0	1-1
Kentucky	108.3	107.2	107.2	107.6	0-0	2-0
Tennessee	106.3	106.0	104.7	105.7	0-0	0-2
Vanderbilt	103.1	101.9	102.0	102.3	0-1	0-2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.8	132.0	136.7	134.8	0-0	2-0
L S U	125.9	123.2	124.7	124.6	0-0	2-0
Texas A&M	118.8	117.2	117.7	117.9	0-0	1-1
Auburn	117.0	114.8	116.3	116.0	0-0	2-0
Mississippi St.	116.4	111.9	116.0	114.8	0-0	2-0
Ole Miss	102.8	102.0	101.8	102.2	1-0	1-1
Arkansas	98.2	98.9	97.3	98.2	0-1	1-1
SEC Averages	114.6	112.7	114.0	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.0	103.1	104.2	104.1	0-0	2-0
Georgia Southern	95.8	95.0	95.0	95.3	0-0	1-1
Troy	95.1	95.7	94.1	95.0	0-0	1-0
Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9	0-0	2-0
Coastal Carolina	83.4	84.6	82.5	83.5	0-0	1-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	94.9	95.2	94.3	94.8	0-0	1-1
Arkansas St.	93.7	94.1	93.6	93.8	0-0	1-1
Louisiana-Monroe	90.6	91.4	90.8	90.9	0-0	1-1
Texas St.	84.1	85.2	84.2	84.5	0-0	0-2
South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3	0-0	1-1
SBC Averages	90.8	91.5	90.2	90.8

 

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.8
2	BTen	110.9
3	B12	108.0
4	P12	106.9
5	ACC	105.9
6	AAC	96.0
7	MWC	94.2
8	Ind	93.2
9	SUN	90.8
10	MAC	87.9
11	CUSA	85.9

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Utah St.
3	Boise St.
4	Cincinnati
5	Appalachian St.

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

This week’s bowl projections finds an uncanny nine bowl spots needing at-large teams.  With Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and South Carolina struggling, and with Missouri ineligible for a bowl, the SEC could field just eight bowl eligible teams.  Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Florida could all be in a NY6 bowl, which means the SEC could fall five teams short fulfilling their bowl agreements.

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Miami (O)	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Houston	[Colorado]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Arkansas St.
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	USC
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	North Texas	Troy
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Buffalo]	Charlotte
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	Hawaii	SMU
Independence	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[Southern Miss.]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Miami (Fla.)	Nebraska
Military	ACC	AAC	Syracuse	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Maryland
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Georgia
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	UAB	[Nevada]
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Western Michigan]	Virginia Tech
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina	[Purdue]
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina St.	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	[Army]
Arizona	SBC	MWC	UL-Monroe	Wyoming
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	California
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Michigan St.	Texas A&M
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[Georgia Southern]	[Liberty]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Auburn	Michigan
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Indiana	Fresno St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	Appalachian St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Clemson
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Ohio St.	Oklahoma
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Alabama	Ohio St.
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Heat on a Seat and Hot Coaches

Look all over the Internet, and listen all over sports talk radio this week, and you will hear about college football coaches on the way to unemployment. In Knoxville, Tennessee, the talk isn’t if second year Volunteer coach Jeremy Pruitt will be ousted at the end of the season, it’s whether he can make it to November. Pruitt doesn’t have the talent on either side of the ball to compete, and he should get more time to turn things around on Rocky Top, but the fans might not allow this to happen.

Making things a little worse for Pruitt, former coach Urban Meyer made statements about how the Volunteers should be a top 10 program. Might Meyer be already campaigning for this job as insurance in the event that Clay Helton builds on his 2-0 start at USC and keeps his job?

Willie Taggart was about to join Pruitt at the very hottest of the seats, but his Florida State Seminoles survived an overtime scare to beat Louisiana-Monroe. Playing at Virginia may be a tough pill for Seminole fans to swallow. If Florida State loses this game, that will make the Seminoles 6-9 in Taggart’s year and a quarter in Tallahassee. FSU could be headed to their worst back-to-back records since Darrell Mudra went 4-18 in 1974 and 1975.

Chip Kelly’s UCLA offense looks weaker than the end of the Karl Dorrell era in Westwood. Will the Bruin fans allow another year of this if UCLA falls to 6th in the South Division? Neither Cincinnati nor San Diego State are juggernauts, as the Bearcats fell 42-0 to Ohio State, while San Diego State had narrowly edged Weber State the week prior.

There three coaches appear to have the hottest seats in college football, but what about the opposite end of the equation? Which coaches are the hottest commodities at this point of the season? Who might be a head coach in 2020 at a bigger program than where he is now?

I have broken this down into four categories. The lowest on the food chain are the handful of FCS head coaches that might move up. The past record is so-so when a champion FCS coach moves to FBS. For every Jim Tressel and Bobby Bowden, you have coaches that totally flamed out when moving up. Wyoming is hoping that Craig Bohl proves to be a better hire than Joe Glenn. Glenn was the hottest FCS coach when the Cowboys hired him away from Montana following a 39-6 three-year record. Glenn went 30-41 in Laramie. Bohl came from North Dakota State, where he won three consecutive FCS Championships, and so far he is 30-35 at Wyoming, but 24-17 in his last three years and two games.

Second on the list are the coordinators at some successful FBS programs. Some of the best college head coaches ascended to their jobs from coordinator positions. Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, Ryan Day at Ohio State, and Kirby Smart at Georgia were coordinators at big time programs before becoming head coaches.

Third on the list are current head coaches at FBS schools in line to move to a bigger and better program. These can be both Group of 5 and Power 5 coaches.
Finally, there are some (one) currently out of coaching coaches. This person may be working for Fox Sports today. He claims he has retired, but until he is out of the game for a few years, nobody believes this.

Here’s the PiRate 2-deep of coaches. These 22 could improve a downtrodden program.

Category 1: Current FCS Head Coaches

Many of the top FCS teams in 2019 have first or second year coaches, because their program has produced new hires elsewhere. In addition, some of the remaining great FCS coaches are at a point in their careers where they are not going to have a chance to be hired at the FBS level, or they have previously failed as an FBS coach.
There are three prime coaches in this level that the PiRate Ratings believes can move to FBS and succeed.

1.Jay Hill, Weber State: Hill is 44 years old and has many coaching years left in his career. He’s spent most of his career in the State of Utah, having been an assistant with the Utes. At Weber State, he’s made the playoffs three years in a row, and his Wildcats have won consecutive Big Sky Conference titles. If a Group of 5 job opens out west, like New Mexico or UTEP, Hill could be in line to get a FBS job.

2. Brian Bohananon, Kennesaw St.: At 48, Bohannon is nearing the time where he will have to make the move up to FBS or be content to remain in FCS football. He won immediately after building this program up from scratch, and KSU almost won at Kent State this past weekend. The one possible issue is that Bohannon is a triple option style coach coming from the Paul Johnson coaching tree. KSU averaged more than 350 yards per game on the ground last year, and the service academies and Georgia Tech proved you can win at the FBS level with this offense. Will fans of a school concur?

3. Bob Surace, Princeton: Are you looking for another Urban Meyer in the making? Surace’s Princeton teams have been big-time spread offense powerhouses. The Tigers could run for 300 and pass for 200 yards a game, and that’s a hard task to stop. Princeton went 10-0 last year, beating 9-1 Dartmouth in the top Ivy League game in 30+ years. At 51, 2020 is probably the end of the line for getting a job at an FBS school. He could be in line for an AAC or MAC job if one became available.

Category 2: Current FBS Coordinators

This list is usually the longest of the categories, but this year it is number two. There are a handful of coordinators that appear to be on the radar to move up to the head position.

4. Bob Shoop, Mississippi State DC: Age may hamper his efforts to land a head coaching job, as he’s 53 and would be 54 in 2020. He was head coach at Columbia for three years and only went 7-23, but Columbia has been the bottom feeder of the Ivy League for almost 60 years. Winning in any sport in upper Manhattan is nearly impossible. Shoop should be judged on his excellent defensive work with Boston College, Vanderbilt, Penn State, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. State led the SEC in scoring and led the nation in total defense last year and finished second in the nation in scoring defense. With LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Kentucky on the schedule, that’s quite a feat.

5. Chris Long, Notre Dame OC: Long produced big numbers in his one year as OC at Memphis before coming to South Bend to run the Irish offense. In 2017, he helped the Irish offense roll up more than 440 total yards and 34 points per game with dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush. Last year, the Irish made the playoffs with pro-style QB Ian Book guiding the team to 31 points and 440 yards of offense. Notre Dame has a history of moving coordinators to head coaching hires at other schools, but it’s been a mixed bag at best. You may not know the name John Ray. He may have had the brightest star of any past Irish coordinator, after his defense led Notre Dame to the 1966 national championship while giving up less than four points per game. He was hired to turn Kentucky back into a big time football program and in four years, Ray went 10-33 in Lexington and 4-24 in the SEC. Giving up 58 points to a mediocre Indiana team in his debut set the stage for four years of despair at Stoll Field. Long is just 36 years old, so he’s got additional time to prove himself.

6. Alex Grinch, Oklahoma DC: Grinch is in his first year at Oklahoma after spending time as Urban Meyer’s DC at Ohio State. If Oklahoma shows any improvement defensively this year, the Sooners are a threat to win it all, and Grinch would become a hero ready to take over a team of his own.

7. Dave Aranda, LSU DC: Prior to this year, LSU had to rely on stingy defense and conservative offense to win games. Coach Ed Orgeron has opened up the offense in 2019, and quarterback Joe Burrow is slinging the ball all over the yard. This has led to a great 2-0 start for the Tigers, but it means that Arranda’s defense must play extra snaps. There were some incredible and some not so incredible results against Texas, and there will probably be some issues stopping top notch offenses remaining on the schedule, but LSU has the talent and coaching to compete with Alabama and Georgia for the SEC Championship. If Arranda’s defense produces a “Chinese Bandits” year in Baton Rouge, look for another school to come calling to make him the head coach.

8. Brent Venables, Clemson DC: Where not going to kid you about this; Venables is number one with a bullet among this category. If Clemson should run the table again this year, Trevor Lawrence and the offense will get most of the credit. However, Clemson finished number one nationally last year in scoring defense and number five in total defense. The Tigers had to reload on the stop side of the ball, as that incredible front four of 2018 closed up their college careers. In two games into the new season, Clemson has given up just 12 points per game. Before coming to Clemson, Venables ran the defense at Oklahoma, and defense slowly disappeared in Norman after he left.

 

Category 3: Current FBS Head Coaches at Power 5 Schools

9. Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia: Virginia had fallen on hard times with seven losing season in eight years under former coaches Al Groh and Mike London. After a rough first year in Charlottesville, Mendenhall began to produce magic like he did at BYU. Bryce Perkins may be the best QB in the ACC not named Lawrence, and Virginia is the current favorite to win the Coastal Division title. Mendenhall is 53 and maybe on the upper limits of his being able to move to another school, but if his alma mater comes knocking, he could take the Oregon State job.

10. Matt Rhule, Baylor: Baylor was in dire straits following all the damage done by former coach Art Briles. The Bears had moved into the top 10 on an annual basis before the bottom fell out in the wake of a sexual assault scandal. After a 1-11 debut in Waco, Rhule turned things around and guided Baylor to a 7-6 season and Texas Bowl win last year. His team is 2-0 to start this season, and they Bears are now a strong contender for the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Rhule turned the program around at Temple before coming to Baylor, and he was 20-7 in his final two years in Philadelphia, including a win over Penn State. Rhule could be the answer at a bigger Power 5 school. Or, he could take Baylor back to where it was at the beginning of this decade.

11. Matt Campbell, Iowa St.: Campbell’s name has been rumored at USC, and it was rumored at Ohio State, but he’s more likely to stay at Iowa State until a top 10 program comes along and seeks his services. Even if the USC job should become available, his name might not be “sexy” enough for the Socal fanatics. Campbell has done an incredible job in Ames, even beating Oklahoma in Norman. His Cyclones have a big game this week in the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy game with rival Iowa. If ISU wins this one, they must be considered a top contender along with Baylor for the second spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Add a 35-15 record with two divisional titles at Toledo, and Campbell’s resume is as good as any other potential candidate for a top 5 program.

12. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: It was expected that Kentucky would struggle to win six games and return to a bowl in 2019, after the Wildcats had their best year in 41 seasons in 2018. With the loss of the best player in college football, as well as their only sure offensive weapon, the Wildcats figured to struggle and have a difficult time staying out of the SEC East cellar. But, after two games, this Kentucky team looks as strong as last year’s edition, and with issues at Tennessee, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, UK could find itself in the race for the number two spot in the division with Florida and Missouri. If Stoops guides the ‘Cats to another 10-win season, a giant may throw enough money to get him to move on. It worked rather well for two past coaches that succeeded in Lexington. Bear Bryant won national championships at Alabama, while Blanton Collier won an NFL Championship with the Cleveland Browns.

Category 4: Current Head Coaches at Group of 5 FBS Schools

13. Luke Fickell, Cincinnati: The Bearcats might be the only team in the AAC East that can give Central Florida a scare, and UC has produced past head coaches that went elsewhere and won, like Mark Dantonio and Brian Kelly. Sid Gillman was once the Cinti head coach before making a name for himself in the American Football League with the Chargers. On the other hand, Butch Jones did not fare well at Tennessee after leading this school, and the father of the triple option, Homer Rice, never won again after leaving UC for Rice and then coming back to coach the Bengals for two years. Fickell might get a chance to coach in the Big Ten down the road if he can put together a few more seasons like 2018.

14. Josh Heupel, Central Florida: Heupel replaced Scott Frost in Orlando, and the Golden Knights have continued to win using a totally different style of play. If Heupel can run the table at UCF this year and then beat a big program in the Cotton Bowl, he could be in line for a job at a Power 5 school. If for some reason Lincoln Riley takes an NFL job as has been hinted, Heupel could easily be the man his alma mater looks for as the replacement.

15. Mike Norvell, Memphis: Norvell has done more than maintain the success that Justin Fuente had at Memphis. He’s come extremely close to winning the AAC Championship. His Memphis teams have been Central Florida’s number one nemesis, and UCF had to rally twice last year to beat the Tigers as it did in the 2017 AAC Championship Game. Norvell has experience as an assistant in the Pac-12, and if a Pac-12 job other than USC became available at the end of the year, he’d have to be a contender.

16. Willie Fritz, Tulane: Fritz has been a winner at every stop along the way in his career. He guided Tulane to a bowl win last year, the first time the Green Wave had won a bowl in 16 years. He won 18 games in two years at Georgia Southern including the Eagles’ first ever bowl win before coming to New Orleans, and prior to that, he went 40-15 at Sam Houston and 97-47 at Central Missouri. He’s the second oldest candidate on this list at 59, so he’d be quite a stretch for a Power 5 school to hire. He might be more suited to a place like one of the service academies if a job opens, as his offensive style includes a lot of the option game.

17. Jeff Monken, Army: If you like Fritz, then you must love Monken. Monken was the option guru at Georgia Southern prior to Fritz, when the Eagles were still in the FCS. He went 38-16 at GSU, which included playoff appearances in the three years that they were eligible before transitioning to FBS. Monken turned Army around quickly, and his triple option offense and tough defense could work in the FBS, just like it did for his mentor Paul Johnson at Georgia Tech. A school like Vanderbilt might succeed with this strategy if the Commodores have an opening. Or, Monken could get a financial promotion to coach at a Group of 5 school in a conference, where he would have a chance to compete for a New Year’s Six Bowl. UTEP or Connecticut might be willing to take a chance.

18. Seth Littrell, North Texas: Now, let’s go to the other end of the spectrum. Littrell is an Air Raid coach, and he’s going to be missing the pilot of his offense when Mason Fine graduates at the end of this school year. North Texas has been quite entertaining to watch in Littrell’s time in Denton. While the OC at North Carolina, he tutored Mitch Trubisky and left Chapel Hill for this job following an 11-3 season that has not been matched since he moved on. A school like Illinois or Rutgers might be interested in him if they have to hire a coach in 2020.

19. Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan: Winning at EMU is one of the toughest assignments an FBS coach can undertake. Between 1975 and 2013 (1975 was their first as D1), EMU made it to one bowl game. Between 1990 and 2013, EMU had one winning season. Since Creighton came to Ypsilanti, the Eagles have had two winning seasons and two bowl appearances in the last three years. Creighton had to earn his way to FBS Football. He began at NAIA Ottawa College and then moved to D3 Wabash. He won 6 championships in 11 years below the D1 level. He took over at FCS Drake in 2008 and took the Bulldogs to a 41-22 record in six years there. This man can re-tool a program from the bottom up and should get a chance to coach at an FBS school. He’s 50, so his time is now. If EMU gets to another bowl this year, some school will most likely offer him a substantial raise. He’s a natural for a Big Ten or Big 12 job.

20. Jason Candle, Toledo: The MAC always has future Power 5 coaches roaming the sidelines, and Candle must be considered a prime suspect to make that move up, just like his predecessor, Campbell. At 39, he’s still got something to prove at Toledo, but the Rockets are always fun to watch, and this could attract schools that are having issues selling tickets.

21. Craig Bohl, Wyoming: Bohl is 24-17 in his last three years and two games in Laramie. He was 104-32 in 11 years at North Dakota State, which ended with three FCS National Championships in a row. His number one issue is the same as Fritz’s; he’s 61 and most likely won’t be approached by a major program. Still, he could be a short-time answer at a Big 12 or Pac-12 school, and Bill Snyder showed you can coach well into your 70’s. He could easily finish his career with 10 years of service.

22. Nick Rolovich, Hawaii: It might be hard to convince a coach to leave the Elysian Fields to coach on the more stressful Mainland. Rolovich has returned Hawaii to the status it enjoyed June Jones. Jones left Hawaii for SMU, and it may or may not have been the right move. Rolovich has little experience with any big time coaches that you could call mentors. He was an assistant for one year under Chris Ault at Nevada plus three years under Brian Polian. So, his name is not going to win any press conferences. Look at Hawaii’s stats under Rolovich. Some school might like 400 passing yards and 38 points per game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: September 3, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Friday	September 6
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rice	Wake Forest	-21.7	-19.5	-22.2
Boise St.	Marshall	16.3	16.3	16.0
Saturday	September 7
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Pittsburgh	Ohio	13.7	14.6	11.6
Virginia Tech	Old Dominion	35.6	35.7	36.2
Akron	UAB	-1.6	-3.5	-2.3
Michigan	Army	21.5	19.6	22.1
Purdue	Vanderbilt	6.9	8.1	7.2
Iowa	Rutgers	25.8	23.0	25.7
Maryland	Syracuse	-4.9	-5.0	-6.2
Missouri	West Virginia	9.6	6.9	10.0
Ohio St.	Cincinnati	16.5	16.2	16.6
Kansas St.	Bowling Green	30.1	30.0	29.4
Utah	Northern Illinois	25.1	24.8	25.4
Georgia Tech	South Florida	12.7	10.1	13.5
Colorado	Nebraska	-2.7	-4.9	-2.3
Clemson	Texas A&M	18.2	15.5	20.4
Wisconsin	Central Michigan	39.1	37.5	38.7
Appalachian St.	Charlotte	21.3	18.5	19.9
Mississippi St.	Southern Miss.	23.8	21.5	23.0
Connecticut	Illinois	-23.6	-20.2	-24.6
Baylor	UTSA	35.1	32.2	34.9
Alabama	New Mexico St.	60.8	53.3	61.9
UCLA	San Diego St.	14.5	12.0	14.0
Florida St.	Louisiana-Monroe	19.1	19.2	19.3
Texas St.	Wyoming	-9.9	-11.4	-11.0
SMU	North Texas	8.0	7.9	7.5
Tennessee	BYU	8.5	8.2	6.7
Florida Atlantic	Central Florida	-15.9	-15.7	-16.3
Florida Int’l.	Western Kentucky	8.8	7.9	7.8
Kansas	Coastal Carolina	16.7	16.8	17.5
Louisiana	Liberty	8.7	7.3	7.3
Michigan St.	Western Michigan	17.8	18.8	17.7
Texas	LSU	-11.2	-8.4	-10.6
Auburn	Tulane	21.5	18.5	20.3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	5.4	3.4	5.0
Oregon	Nevada	21.7	20.0	23.0
Penn St.	Buffalo	33.1	31.1	32.0
Kentucky	Eastern Michigan	22.3	20.8	20.4
Texas Tech	UTEP	44.3	38.6	42.9
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	-7.1	-4.4	-6.8
USC	Stanford	-2.4	0.0	-2.1
Washington	California	9.3	8.4	9.2
Fresno St.	Minnesota	-8.4	-7.2	-6.5
Hawaii	Oregon St.	6.7	7.5	7.7

San Jose St.	Tulsa	-4.3	-2.4	-6.2
UNLV	Arkansas St.	-1.5	0.9	-1.0

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home	Visitor		PiRate
Virginia	William & Mary		35.8
Arizona St.	Sacramento St.		33.7
South Carolina	Charleston Sou.		38.6
Memphis	Southern U		36.4
Kent St.	Kennesaw St.		-1.8
North Carolina St.	Western Carolina		41.0
Ball St.	Fordham		25.9
Miami (O)	Tennessee Tech		35.1
Massachusetts	Southern Illinois		4.6
Indiana	Eastern Illinois		32.1
Boston College	Richmond		35.0
Louisiana Tech	Grambling		26.4
Georgia	Murray St.		52.3
Colorado St.	Western Illinois		6.4
Washington St.	Northern Colorado		41.9
East Carolina	Gardner-Webb		24.1
Georgia Southern	Maine		10.2
Duke	North Carolina A&T		26.9
Georgia St.	Furman		7.0
Louisville	Eastern Kentucky		19.9
Oklahoma St.	McNeese St.		36.8
South Alabama	Jackson St.		24.4
Oklahoma	South Dakota		38.3
Middle Tennessee	Tennessee St.		25.9
Florida	UT-Martin		42.6
Utah St.	Stony Brook		27.5
Houston	Prairie View		28.6
Arizona	Northern Arizona		23.6

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.8	131.5	136.7	134.6
2	Clemson	134.0	130.3	135.0	133.1
3	Georgia	125.9	123.9	126.3	125.4
4	L S U	126.1	123.3	125.0	124.8
5	Ohio St.	121.6	119.8	121.8	121.1
6	Michigan	121.3	119.3	121.8	120.8
7	Notre Dame	120.2	118.4	120.2	119.6
8	Oklahoma	119.9	118.9	119.6	119.5
9	Florida	120.0	117.1	119.0	118.7
10	Texas A&M	118.6	117.1	117.2	117.7
11	Penn St.	117.0	115.9	116.9	116.6
12	Utah	116.8	115.2	117.2	116.4
13	Auburn	117.2	114.8	116.5	116.2
14	Michigan St.	115.9	115.6	116.1	115.9
15	Mississippi St.	116.5	111.8	116.0	114.8
16	Wisconsin	114.4	113.9	114.1	114.1
17	Iowa	115.0	112.5	114.7	114.0
18	Oregon	113.1	113.1	114.2	113.5
19	Washington	113.3	112.5	114.4	113.4
20	Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0
21	Syracuse	112.0	111.8	112.3	112.0
22	Texas	111.9	111.8	111.5	111.7
23	Missouri	112.5	109.6	112.4	111.5
24	South Carolina	111.0	109.6	111.0	110.5
25	Minnesota	111.0	110.4	109.8	110.4
26	Baylor	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2
27	Iowa St.	110.0	110.4	109.9	110.1
28	Northwestern	110.7	109.7	109.7	110.0
29	Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.7	111.2	110.0
30	Oklahoma St.	109.8	110.4	109.3	109.8
31	Central Florida	109.3	108.3	110.4	109.3
32	Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1
33	Stanford	109.3	108.2	109.4	109.0
34	Virginia Tech	107.7	108.0	108.2	108.0
35	Purdue	108.2	108.1	107.6	108.0
36	Texas Tech	108.0	108.1	107.1	107.7
37	Indiana	108.6	106.8	107.4	107.6
38	Kentucky	108.4	107.2	107.2	107.6
39	Kansas St.	107.7	107.5	107.3	107.5
40	California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4
41	Arizona St.	107.3	106.3	107.7	107.1
42	Cincinnati	107.6	106.0	107.7	107.1
43	Tennessee	107.1	106.9	105.5	106.5
44	Boise St.	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.5
45	Nebraska	105.6	107.3	105.2	106.0
46	U C L A	106.0	105.6	105.3	105.7
47	West Virginia	105.9	105.7	105.4	105.6
48	Pittsburgh	105.9	105.6	105.2	105.6
49	Utah St.	105.4	104.2	106.8	105.4
50	Boston College	104.9	104.6	105.6	105.0
51	Florida St.	104.4	104.8	104.4	104.6
52	Appalachian St.	105.5	103.4	104.6	104.5
53	U S C	103.8	105.2	104.3	104.5
54	Memphis	104.0	103.5	105.1	104.2
55	Vanderbilt	104.3	103.0	103.4	103.6
56	North Carolina St.	103.2	103.2	104.0	103.5
57	Maryland	104.0	103.5	102.8	103.4
58	Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.7	103.4
59	Duke	103.5	102.9	103.2	103.2
60	North Carolina	102.0	103.2	103.4	102.9
61	Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7
62	T C U	101.1	104.9	101.5	102.5
63	Temple	102.4	101.2	103.7	102.4
64	BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.0	100.9	100.8	101.2
66	Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9
67	Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.3	100.0
68	Illinois	99.9	100.8	99.3	100.0
69	Western Michigan	100.1	98.7	100.4	99.7
70	Colorado	99.9	99.4	99.9	99.7
71	SMU	99.5	98.7	99.9	99.4
72	Georgia Tech	99.6	97.6	100.3	99.2
73	Arkansas	99.0	100.0	98.3	99.1
74	Tulane	98.7	99.3	99.1	99.0
75	Air Force	97.7	99.0	98.5	98.4
76	Hawaii	97.3	99.3	96.9	97.8
77	Wyoming	96.7	99.1	97.6	97.8
78	Houston	96.0	97.2	98.7	97.3
79	Ohio	96.3	95.0	97.8	96.4
80	Georgia Southern	95.9	95.1	95.1	95.4
81	Kansas	95.0	96.2	94.7	95.3
82	Nevada	94.4	96.1	94.2	94.9
83	Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9
84	Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8
85	San Diego St.	94.1	96.1	93.8	94.7
86	Oregon St.	94.6	95.8	93.2	94.5
87	Northern Illinois	94.7	93.4	94.8	94.3
88	Southern Miss.	94.7	92.3	95.0	94.0
89	Louisiana	93.8	93.9	92.9	93.5
90	Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2
91	North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1
92	Rutgers	92.2	92.5	92.0	92.2
93	Middle Tennessee	91.8	91.0	92.1	91.6
94	Tulsa	91.2	91.6	92.1	91.6
95	Toledo	91.2	91.4	92.3	91.6
96	Florida Atlantic	91.4	90.6	92.1	91.4
97	Florida Int’l.	91.2	91.0	91.7	91.3
98	Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2
99	South Florida	90.4	91.5	90.5	90.8
100	Miami (Ohio)	90.8	89.1	91.3	90.4
101	Louisiana Tech	90.6	90.2	90.4	90.4
102	Eastern Michigan	89.1	89.4	89.8	89.5
103	Louisiana-Monroe	89.1	89.8	89.1	89.3
104	Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9
105	Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7
106	Navy	86.9	89.9	86.5	87.8
107	U N L V	86.8	89.3	86.9	87.7
108	Buffalo	87.0	87.8	88.0	87.6
109	Ball St.	87.1	86.7	86.8	86.9
110	Charlotte	86.3	86.9	86.7	86.6
111	Western Kentucky	85.4	86.2	86.9	86.1
112	Kent St.	85.6	85.8	86.0	85.8
113	U A B	84.7	86.6	85.2	85.5
114	East Carolina	84.5	86.6	84.2	85.1
115	San Jose St.	83.9	86.1	83.0	84.3
116	Texas St.	83.8	84.7	83.6	84.0
117	New Mexico	83.1	86.2	82.5	84.0
118	Coastal Carolina	81.3	82.4	80.2	81.3
119	Colorado St.	79.5	83.8	79.7	81.0
120	Bowling Green	80.5	80.5	80.9	80.7
121	Akron	80.6	80.7	80.5	80.6
122	Rice	79.2	80.8	78.7	79.6
123	New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0
124	Central Michigan	78.3	79.4	78.4	78.7
125	Texas-San Antonio	77.8	80.6	77.5	78.6
126	South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3
127	Old Dominion	75.0	75.3	75.0	75.1
128	Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6
129	Connecticut	73.3	77.6	71.8	74.2
130	U T E P	66.3	72.0	66.7	68.3

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	109.3	108.3	110.4	109.3	0-0	1-0
Cincinnati	107.6	106.0	107.7	107.1	0-0	1-0
Temple	102.4	101.2	103.7	102.4	0-0	1-0
South Florida	90.4	91.5	90.5	90.8	0-0	0-1
East Carolina	84.5	86.6	84.2	85.1	0-0	0-1
Connecticut	73.3	77.6	71.8	74.2	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.0	103.5	105.1	104.2	0-0	1-0
SMU	99.5	98.7	99.9	99.4	0-0	1-0
Tulane	98.7	99.3	99.1	99.0	0-0	1-0
Houston	96.0	97.2	98.7	97.3	0-0	0-1
Tulsa	91.2	91.6	92.1	91.6	0-0	0-1
Navy	86.9	89.9	86.5	87.8	0-0	1-0
AAC Averages	95.3	96.0	95.8	95.7
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	134.0	130.3	135.0	133.1	1-0	1-0
Syracuse	112.0	111.8	112.3	112.0	0-0	1-0
Boston College	104.9	104.6	105.6	105.0	1-0	1-0
Florida St.	104.4	104.8	104.4	104.6	0-0	0-1
North Carolina St.	103.2	103.2	104.0	103.5	0-0	1-0
Wake Forest	103.6	102.9	103.7	103.4	0-0	1-0
Louisville	95.5	94.9	94.3	94.9	0-0	0-1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.7	111.2	110.0	0-0	0-1
Virginia	108.9	109.4	109.1	109.1	1-0	1-0
Virginia Tech	107.7	108.0	108.2	108.0	0-1	0-1
Pittsburgh	105.9	105.6	105.2	105.6	0-1	0-1
Duke	103.5	102.9	103.2	103.2	0-0	0-1
North Carolina	102.0	103.2	103.4	102.9	0-0	1-0
Georgia Tech	99.6	97.6	100.3	99.2	0-1	0-1
ACC Averages	106.8	106.3	107.1	106.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	119.9	118.9	119.6	119.5	0-0	1-0
Texas	111.9	111.8	111.5	111.7	0-0	1-0
Baylor	110.4	110.3	109.9	110.2	0-0	1-0
Iowa St.	110.0	110.4	109.9	110.1	0-0	1-0
Oklahoma St.	109.8	110.4	109.3	109.8	0-0	1-0
Texas Tech	108.0	108.1	107.1	107.7	0-0	1-0
Kansas St.	107.7	107.5	107.3	107.5	0-0	1-0
West Virginia	105.9	105.7	105.4	105.6	0-0	1-0
T C U	101.1	104.9	101.5	102.5	0-0	1-0
Kansas	95.0	96.2	94.7	95.3	0-0	1-0
Big 12 Averages	108.0	108.4	107.6	108.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	121.6	119.8	121.8	121.1	0-0	1-0
Michigan	121.3	119.3	121.8	120.8	0-0	1-0
Penn St.	117.0	115.9	116.9	116.6	0-0	1-0
Michigan St.	115.9	115.6	116.1	115.9	0-0	1-0
Indiana	108.6	106.8	107.4	107.6	0-0	1-0
Maryland	104.0	103.5	102.8	103.4	0-0	1-0
Rutgers	92.2	92.5	92.0	92.2	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Wisconsin	114.4	113.9	114.1	114.1	0-0	1-0
Iowa	115.0	112.5	114.7	114.0	0-0	1-0
Minnesota	111.0	110.4	109.8	110.4	0-0	1-0
Northwestern	110.7	109.7	109.7	110.0	0-0	0-1
Purdue	108.2	108.1	107.6	108.0	0-0	0-1
Nebraska	105.6	107.3	105.2	106.0	0-0	1-0
Illinois	99.9	100.8	99.3	100.0	0-0	1-0
Big Ten Averages	110.4	109.7	109.9	110.0
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2	0-0	1-0
Middle Tennessee	91.8	91.0	92.1	91.6	0-0	0-1
Florida Atlantic	91.4	90.6	92.1	91.4	0-0	0-1
Florida Int’l.	91.2	91.0	91.7	91.3	0-0	0-1
Charlotte	86.3	86.9	86.7	86.6	0-0	1-0
Western Kentucky	85.4	86.2	86.9	86.1	0-0	0-1
Old Dominion	75.0	75.3	75.0	75.1	0-0	1-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.7	92.3	95.0	94.0	0-0	1-0
North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1	0-0	1-0
Louisiana Tech	90.6	90.2	90.4	90.4	0-0	0-1
U A B	84.7	86.6	85.2	85.5	0-0	1-0
Rice	79.2	80.8	78.7	79.6	0-0	0-1
Texas-San Antonio	77.8	80.6	77.5	78.6	0-0	1-0
U T E P	66.3	72.0	66.7	68.3	0-0	1-0
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	86.1	86.1
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	120.2	118.4	120.2	119.6	x	1-0
BYU	101.4	101.2	101.4	101.3	x	0-1
Army	100.2	100.2	99.8	100.1	x	1-0
Liberty	88.0	89.3	88.3	88.5	x	0-1
New Mexico St.	76.6	79.3	76.2	77.3	x	0-1
Massachusetts	73.4	76.2	72.8	74.1	x	0-1
Indep. Averages	93.3	94.1	93.1	93.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.3	95.0	97.8	96.4	0-0	1-0
Miami (Ohio)	90.8	89.1	91.3	90.4	0-0	0-1
Buffalo	87.0	87.8	88.0	87.6	0-0	1-0
Kent St.	85.6	85.8	86.0	85.8	0-0	0-1
Bowling Green	80.5	80.5	80.9	80.7	0-0	1-0
Akron	80.6	80.7	80.5	80.6	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	100.1	98.7	100.4	99.7	0-0	1-0
Northern Illinois	94.7	93.4	94.8	94.3	0-0	1-0
Toledo	91.2	91.4	92.3	91.6	0-0	0-1
Eastern Michigan	89.1	89.4	89.8	89.5	0-0	1-0
Ball St.	87.1	86.7	86.8	86.9	0-0	0-1
Central Michigan	78.3	79.4	78.4	78.7	0-0	1-0
MAC Averages	88.4	88.2	88.9	88.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	106.5	105.9	107.0	106.5	0-0	1-0
Utah St.	105.4	104.2	106.8	105.4	0-0	0-1
Air Force	97.7	99.0	98.5	98.4	0-0	1-0
Wyoming	96.7	99.1	97.6	97.8	0-0	1-0
New Mexico	83.1	86.2	82.5	84.0	0-0	1-0
Colorado St.	79.5	83.8	79.7	81.0	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.3	100.0	0-0	0-1
Hawaii	97.3	99.3	96.9	97.8	0-0	1-0
Nevada	94.4	96.1	94.2	94.9	0-0	1-0
San Diego St.	94.1	96.1	93.8	94.7	0-0	1-0
U N L V	86.8	89.3	86.9	87.7	0-0	1-0
San Jose St.	83.9	86.1	83.0	84.3	0-0	1-0
MWC Averages	93.8	95.4	93.9	94.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	113.1	113.1	114.2	113.5	0-0	0-1
Washington	113.3	112.5	114.4	113.4	0-0	1-0
Washington St.	113.1	112.3	113.5	113.0	0-0	1-0
Stanford	109.3	108.2	109.4	109.0	0-0	1-0
California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4	0-0	1-0
Oregon St.	94.6	95.8	93.2	94.5	0-0	0-1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.8	115.2	117.2	116.4	0-0	1-0
Arizona St.	107.3	106.3	107.7	107.1	0-0	1-0
U C L A	106.0	105.6	105.3	105.7	0-0	0-1
U S C	103.8	105.2	104.3	104.5	0-0	1-0
Arizona	100.8	100.9	101.0	100.9	0-0	0-1
Colorado	99.9	99.4	99.9	99.7	0-0	1-0
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.9	123.9	126.3	125.4	1-0	1-0
Florida	120.0	117.1	119.0	118.7	0-0	1-0
Missouri	112.5	109.6	112.4	111.5	0-0	0-1
South Carolina	111.0	109.6	111.0	110.5	0-0	0-1
Kentucky	108.4	107.2	107.2	107.6	0-0	1-0
Tennessee	107.1	106.9	105.5	106.5	0-0	0-1
Vanderbilt	104.3	103.0	103.4	103.6	0-1	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.8	131.5	136.7	134.6	0-0	1-0
L S U	126.1	123.3	125.0	124.8	0-0	1-0
Texas A&M	118.6	117.1	117.2	117.7	0-0	1-0
Auburn	117.2	114.8	116.5	116.2	0-0	1-0
Mississippi St.	116.5	111.8	116.0	114.8	0-0	1-0
Ole Miss	102.0	100.9	100.8	101.2	0-0	0-1
Arkansas	99.0	100.0	98.3	99.1	0-0	1-0
SEC Averages	114.6	112.6	113.9	113.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.5	103.4	104.6	104.5	0-0	1-0
Georgia Southern	95.9	95.1	95.1	95.4	0-0	0-1
Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8	0-0	1-0
Georgia St.	88.7	90.3	87.8	88.9	0-0	1-0
Coastal Carolina	81.3	82.4	80.2	81.3	0-0	0-1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	93.8	93.9	92.9	93.5	0-0	0-1
Arkansas St.	91.3	91.4	91.0	91.2	0-0	0-1
Louisiana-Monroe	89.1	89.8	89.1	89.3	0-0	1-0
Texas St.	83.8	84.7	83.6	84.0	0-0	0-1
South Alabama	76.4	80.0	75.4	77.3	0-0	0-1
SBC Averages	90.1	90.7	89.4	90.0

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	113.7
2	BTen	110.0
3	B12	108.0
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	106.7
6	AAC	95.7
7	MWC	94.4
8	Ind	93.5
9	SUN	90.0
10	MAC	88.5
11	CUSA	86.1

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Cincinnati
3	Boise St.
4	Utah St.
5	Appalachian St.

 

Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-large	SMU	[Miami (O)]
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Louisiana-Monroe
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	Fresno St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Memphis	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Western Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	California
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	Florida Int’l.	Georgia St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Purdue]	Southern Miss.
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	Hawaii	Houston
Independence	ACC	SEC	Wake Forest	[UAB]
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Maryland
Military	ACC	AAC	Boston College	Temple
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Nebraska
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Stanford
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Virginia	Baylor
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Georgia	Central Florida
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	North Texas	Kansas St.
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Arizona St.	Minnesota
Music City	SEC	ACC	[Indiana]	Miami (Fla.)
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	LSU
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	Arkansas
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	North Carolina	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	Vanderbilt
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	Utah St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Iowa St.	Utah
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Florida	Michigan St.
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	[Army]
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	Kentucky	Wisconsin
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Wyoming
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Northwestern	Air Force
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Appalachian St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Ohio St.
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Oklahoma
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

Woe To Us

One week into the season, panic has set in at a number of schools after unexpected losses or even unimpressive wins have sent the fans of certain schools into full-scale panic.

Worst of the lot is the University of Tennessee.  The Volunteers, 25-point favorites, lost at home to Georgia State in a game that Vols were clearly manhandled by the team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Eastern Division in 2019.

Calls have come from within a lot of the fan base for massive changes to be made just 13 games into Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s head coaching career.  There are even calls to rid Athletics Director Phil Fulmer of his duties as well.

Today, in our little old folks reminiscing feature, I will tell you that contrary to the current popular belief, that this loss in Knoxville is not the worst loss in modern day history.

Let’s set the Time Machine back to 1958.  Coach Bowden Wyatt led an archaic Tennessee Single Wing offense that as recently as 1956 had allowed the Big Orange to run the table in the regular season and finish 2nd nationally to champion Oklahoma.

The following year, Tennessee won eight games including the Gator Bowl.  Two of their three losses came to top 5 teams.

In 1958, the Vols stumbled coming out of the gate.  In a 2-4 start that produced little offense and strong defense, Coach Wyatt all of a sudden found himself in hot water.  Tennessee fans, spoiled under the long reign of General Robert Neyland, reacted to this 2-4 start like former New York Yankees manager George Steinbrenner used to react when his team won only 90 games and missed out on the American League Division title.

Game seven was one of those automatic wins against tiny in-state rival Chattanooga.  The Mocs at times in the 20th Century were classified as Major College, or the equivalent of today’s FBS.  However, in 1958, they were Small College, or the equivalent of FCS.

Chattanooga entered this game coming off a loss at Tennessee Tech, and nobody gave Coach Scrappy Moore’s team any hope playing the mighty Vols at Shield-Watkins Field.  When the game started, Chattanooga’s defense, led by future American Football League starter Charlie Long at linebacker (he was also a starting offensive guard and played that position with the Boston Patriots), had little problem stopping Tennessee’s balanced-line Single Wing offense.  Time and time again, Tennessee ran line bucks, off-tackle plays, sweeps, and traps, and the Mocs defense stopped the attack and forced punts.

Chattanooga’s offense was not a juggernaut, but on this day, the Mocs would garner two touchdown drives and led 14-0 with precious little time remaining.  The stadium began to lose its home fans rapidly, as the then 46,000 seat stadium had about 30,000 people in seats.  This was a good thing because of what would happen in a few minutes.

Tennessee mounted one final desperation drive with the forward pass, something Wyatt-coached Vols teams used infrequently.  Chattanooga played a loose defense, allowing the Vols to use up the rest of the clock but finally scoring points in the last few seconds of the game.  The extra point was blocked, and Chattanooga pulled off its greatest ever upset, beating Tennessee in Knoxville 14-6.

The Chattanooga fans, totally excited over their impossible feat, stormed the field and tore down the goalposts.  What happens next has been told to me in the past by older acquaintances that lived in Chattanooga and have passed on to their reward.  Here’s a composite of these stories told to me many years ago:

The Tennessee fans that remained until the end of the game took offense at the Chattanooga fans storming their field and tearing down their goalposts.  When about 100 Vols’ fans decided to let the mob rule, they began to attack the Mocs fans, and within a few seconds, this became a full-scale riot.

In what has been described to me to have resembled the streets of Chicago during the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the Knoxville police had to bring their riot gear and paddy wagons to the campus.  Eventually, tear gas was lobbed onto the field to stop the violence that had gotten well out of control.  Many Chattanooga fans and a handful of Tennessee fans had been detained and carted off to vehicles to be transferred to jail.

Here’s the most outrageous part of this story.  The sheriff of Hamilton County (Chattanooga as the county seat) was at this game as a fan.  He rounded up a “posse” of Mocs to attempt to overpower the Knoxville police and emancipate the arrested Chattanooga fans.  The sheriff was then arrested by the Knoxville police.

Tennessee had two home games remaining in 1958, and the administration decided they would not purchase new goalposts.  Instead, they erected very cheap wooden goalposts, the type anybody could construct by going to Home Depot, Lowe’s, or Menard’s today.

Coach Wyatt was barbecued in the local newspapers.  The Knoxville Journal and the Knoxville News-Sentinel opposed each other in 1958 like Fox News and CNN oppose each other today.  Yet, the two papers were in agreement that something needed to be done.  At 2-5, Tennessee now faced a closing three games against a top-5 Ole Miss team that had lost only to eventual national champion LSU; a decent Kentucky team under future Cleveland Browns head coach Blanton Collier; and a Vanderbilt team that would lose only one game prior to the season-ending contest with the Vols.

Staring a potential 2-8 season in the face, there was no joy in “The Marble City.”  Tennessee football was to Knoxville on Saturdays what it is to Green Bay on Sundays.

With the makeshift goalposts, Tennessee entered their game with Ole Miss as double-digit underdogs at home.  Having done exhaustive research, this was a first at Shields-Watkins Field.  Rarely had the Vols been underdogs at home under Neyland, so being a double-digit underdog to the Rebels was a new low.

As unexpected as their loss was to Chattanooga the previous week, the Vols went the opposite way against Coach Johnny Vaught’s Rebels.  Ole Miss had just scored 56 points the previous week against Houston, and their defense was giving up less than six points per game.  Even LSU could muster only 14 points, so the Vols’ Single Wing offense looked to be in a huge bind, and it was conceivable that Tennessee would be lucky to even cross midfield.

Not only did Tennessee move the ball across midfield, they moved it up and down the field for most of the day, while their defense slowed a great Split-T attack and Ole Miss’s top back, Charlie Flowers, had trouble moving the ball for most of the day.  An 18-16 upset was as big as the upset loss to Chattanooga.

Ironically, the Vols’ fans stormed the field after this game and quickly made short work of the cheap, makeshift goalposts.  Tennessee had to erect another set of wooden goalposts for its final home game.  Also ironically, goalposts would not be needed in that final home game, as neither Tennessee nor Kentucky attempted an extra point that day.  The Vol offense returned to its inept depths and failed to produce points.  A safety by the defense prevented the goose egg from staying on the old scoreboard.  Kentucky scored a lone touchdown and missed a two-point conversion but won 6-2.  This guaranteed a losing season for the Vols.

The season ended with Tennessee visiting their in-state rival Vanderbilt in Nashville.  This Vanderbilt team was ranked number 15 and looking at a likely Sun, Gator, or Bluegrass Bowl bid with a win over the lowly Vols.  Vanderbilt entered this game without an SEC loss and only one overall, which came against a Clemson team that won the Atlantic Coast Conference championship and would face LSU in the Sugar Bowl.

After Coach Neyland came to Knoxville, Vanderbilt was rarely favored to beat their nemesis down the road on US Highway 70.  On this late November day, the Commodores were expected to win easily and give some of their second team players extra experience.

Once again, the Vols came out fired up and stopped Vanderbilt’s version of the Split-T and Wing-T offense.  The UT Single Wing offense was not potent by any means, but they moved the ball.  In 1958, few teams made more than two or three field goals in an entire season, and many did not make even one.  On this day, a field goal gave the Vols a surprising early lead, and Tennessee led 10-6 in the fourth quarter.  Two long Vanderbilt drives ended with turnovers, a fumble on the first and an interception on the second.  The Vol player (cannot remember his name) that recovered the fumble also picked off the pass, and Tennessee shocked Vandy at Dudley Field.  As a result, the Commodores were passed over for the bowl bids.  The Sun Bowl took Hardin-Simmons; the Bluegrass Bowl in Louisville took Florida State; and the Gator Bowl chose Florida and Ole Miss.

To all the Vols fans, as well as those that cheer for Tennessee to lose, let this be a warning to you.  The same can be said to Florida State, South Carolina, Missouri, UCLA, and Arizona fans this week.  Your team failed miserably in game one, but you never know what might happen in game two.  This going to the extremes, believing your team might be Playoff bound if they win their first game, and believing that the sky is falling if they lose their first game, is a ridiculous emotion.  It’s just the first game.  Teams have stunk in their first game and proceeded to win the national championship.  Not that this will happen in 2019, but the Seminoles, Gamecocks, Tigers, Bruins, Wildcats, and Vols fans still have reason to believe that this current low point will be replaced with multiple reversals of misfortune.

Week Two–Some Marquee Games

This will be a Saturday to make plans to watch a lot of football if you are a big college fan.

Noon, EDT

Michigan vs. Army–Fox Sports

This is the best early game.  The Wolverines had some trouble against Middle Tennessee in week one, while Army struggled with Rice.  This game may be lower scoring than first expected, but both teams did not show their entire playbooks last week.  I expect more offense and will look at the totals numbers for this game.  If Army can pull off the upset, the Black Knights can easily run the table for the regular season and possibly earn a spot in the Cotton Bowl.  Army is not eligible for the guaranteed Group of 5 New Year’s Bowl bid, as this goes to the highest-rated Group of 5 Conference Champion.  However, if the men from West Point beat Michigan and proceed to go 13-0 in the regular season, they could still be selected as an at-large team for the Cotton Bowl.

Of course, Michigan is a tough team to beat at The Big House, and Army does not wear scarlet and gray uniforms.

Purdue vs. Vanderbilt–Big Ten Network

This looks like a bowl eliminator game, even in week 2.  Purdue watched a 17-point lead disappear in Reno against Nevada.  Vanderbilt suffered against national contender Georgia and has injuries on its already thin offensive line.  The team that emerges 1-1 will still hold bowl hopes for 2019.  The loser has little path to six wins.

3:30 PM EDT

Clemson vs. Texas A&M–ABC

The Aggies gave the Tigers one of their two toughest battles last year in College Station, and Coach Jimbo Fisher certainly knows how to prepare for a game against his former rival when he coached at Florida State.  Having to go to Deaf Valley to place Trevor the Great may be asking the Aggies to do the impossible, but Clemson didn’t look like a super team against Georgia Tech last week, and Lawrence actually completed two passes to the wrong colored jersey.  This game might be quite interesting if the Aggies can contain the CU running game and make Clemson one dimensional.

7:30 PM EDT

Texas vs. LSU–ABC

This may be the overall best game of the week.  Texas looked just as strong if not stronger beating Louisiana Tech in week one as they looked like last year when they beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.  LSU looked like a team that Alabama fans need to worry about, as the new Tiger offense did things through the air that it had not done before, even in the Bert Jones days.  Joe Burrow added his name to Heisman Trophy contention after week one.  The winner of this game stays in Playoff contention.  The loser is already looking at top tier bowl but no Playoffs.

8:00 PM EDT

North Carolina vs. Miami–ACC Network

Kudos to Coach Mack Brown for showing the nation that old guys can still teach new tricks to the youngsters.  North Carolina can now become a co-favorite for the Coastal Division flag with a win over Miami in week two.  Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had an extra week to lick their wounds after falling to rival Florida in a game that Miami had a chance to win at the end.

10:30 PM EDT

Washington vs. California–FS1

After Oregon lost in the final nine seconds to Auburn, the Pac-12 was placed behind the 8-ball.  It is going to take a 12-0 team from the Pac-12 to make the Playoffs, so this game will see one team emerge as having accomplished what is mandatory for that to happen.  Washington quarterback Jacob Eason looked like a potential first team All Pac-12 player in game one, but then Eastern Washington’s defense is not the standard to judge excellence.

Cal had to come from behind to beat FCS rival UC Davis.  Having to go to Seattle for this game makes the Bears a solid underdog, but Coach Justin Wilcox is impressing us with his handling of the boys from Berkeley.  Expect this game to be closer than expected and most likely quite exciting.  Cal stopped the Huskies last year in a 12-10 win.

Stanford vs. USC–ESPN

When USC quarterback J.T. Daniels went down with a season-ending injury in the middle of the Fresno State game, you could just see Coach Clay Helton’s subconscious brain imagining the help-wanted ads in the Los Angeles Times.  With an incredibly difficult schedule and a mandate to win 8 or 9 games this year, how does Helton survive the season much less get through it to the end with a true freshman signal caller?

Helton and the Trojans may have a shot against the Cardinal, because Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello might not play after suffering a gruesome hit in what should have been called a targeting penalty against Northwestern.  Costello might be in the concussion protocol and unable to play in this game, and backup Davis Mills did not produce any points after entering the game for the second half.

The winner of this game will be an unconvincing 2-0 team, but the loser will be in dire straits at 1-1.  USC faces four consecutive games where they will be the underdog, while Stanford decided to play Central Florida and Notre Dame as two of its three non-conference games.  The Cardinal may not have five more wins on their schedule if they lose this game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate College Football Ratings: August 20, 2019

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Week 0 and Week 1–August 24 through September 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings
Saturday	August 24
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida (n)	Miami (Fla.)	11.0	9.5	8.9
Hawaii	Arizona	-2.2	-0.3	-3.4
Thursday	August 29
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati	UCLA	2.6	1.1	3.7
Tulane	Florida Int’l.	4.4	5.4	3.7
Clemson	Georgia Tech	36.7	34.0	36.7
Texas A&M	Texas St.	36.5	33.7	34.9
Arizona St.	Kent St.	26.4	24.6	26.8
BYU	Utah	-13.5	-11.5	-13.5
Friday	August 30
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Army	Rice	28.2	26.4	28.7
South Florida	Wisconsin	-12.1	-10.1	-10.9
Michigan St.	Tulsa	27.1	26.4	26.2
Rutgers	Massachusetts	21.2	18.1	21.2
Wake Forest	Utah St.	1.3	2.0	0.0
Nevada	Purdue	-15.2	-13.4	-15.2
Colorado (n)	Colorado St.	20.5	14.8	20.6
Oregon St.	Oklahoma St.	-11.9	-10.8	-12.3
Saturday	August 31
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	18.9	16.1	19.5
Illinois	Akron	16.5	17.3	15.4
Indiana (n)	Ball St.	23.8	22.4	23.3
Nebraska	South Alabama	35.9	33.8	36.8
Ohio St.	Florida Atlantic	32.2	31.1	31.7
Kentucky	Toledo	21.3	19.7	19.0
Memphis	Ole Miss	3.1	3.7	5.6
Louisiana (n)	Mississippi St.	-25.0	-19.6	-25.8
North Carolina (n)	South Carolina	-14.3	-11.3	-12.7
Tennessee	Georgia St.	30.8	29.0	30.3
Alabama (n)	Duke	31.3	26.7	32.2
Coastal Carolina	Eastern Michigan	-5.2	-4.1	-7.1
Stanford	Northwestern	0.3	0.1	1.5
Boston College	Virginia Tech	-1.5	-2.6	-1.6
Liberty	Syracuse	-21.3	-19.4	-21.0
Arkansas St.	SMU	-5.4	-4.3	-5.8
Florida St. (n)	Boise St.	2.0	3.6	1.9
Vanderbilt	Georgia	-18.7	-17.8	-20.0
Auburn (n)	Oregon	3.8	0.9	1.5
LSU	Georgia Southern	28.0	25.3	27.3
Wyoming	Missouri	-18.5	-12.7	-17.7
Iowa	Miami (O)	27.4	26.6	26.8
Michigan	Middle Tennessee	35.2	33.8	35.8
Pittsburgh	Virginia	3.4	2.4	2.7
Texas	Louisiana Tech	23.4	23.5	22.5
Washington St.	New Mexico St.	37.0	32.5	37.4
USC	Fresno St.	7.2	8.0	6.8
Sunday/Monday	September 1/2
Home	Visitors	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oklahoma	Houston	28.2	25.7	24.9
Louisville	Notre Dame	-23.8	-22.4	-25.9

 

FBS vs. FCS Games

 

Home	Visitor	PiRate
San Jose St.	Northern Colorado	14.5
Connecticut	Wagner	12.6
Central Michigan	Albany	9.8
Bowling Green	Morgan St.	17.2
Buffalo	Robert Morris	43.9
Charlotte	Gardner-Webb	26.5
Western Kentucky	Central Arkansas	11.9
Central Florida	Florida A&M	45.5
UAB	Alabama St.	45.5
Minnesota	South Dakota St.	12.7
UNLV	Southern Utah	17.3
Air Force	Colgate	11.3
New Mexico	Sam Houston St.	9.7
Maryland	Howard	36.0
Iowa St.	Northern Iowa	22.2
Kansas	Indiana St.	13.8
West Virginia	James Madison	18.5
Ohio U	Rhode Island	27.6
Washington	E. Washington	18.0
Temple	Bucknell	44.2
Navy	Holy Cross	24.4
Penn St.	Idaho	40.5
Appalachian St.	East Tennessee	36.3
Arkansas	Portland St.	21.0
Texas Tech	Montana St.	25.7
UTSA	Incarnate Word	7.3
Troy	Campbell	33.8
California	UC-Davis	14.5
Marshall	VMI	37.8
Old Dominion	Norfolk St.	23.5
Southern Miss	Alcorn St.	23.6
Kansas St.	Nicholls	23.9
Baylor	Stephen F Austin	37.3
Northern Illinois	Illinois St.	7.3
Western Michigan	Monmouth	20.5
North Texas	Abilene Christian	19.4
UTEP	Houston Baptist	15.2
TCU	Ark. Pine Bluff	52.3
Louisiana-Monroe	Grambling	24.3
San Diego St.	Weber St.	8.1

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings (1-130)

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.3	130.6	136.1	134.0
2	Clemson	133.8	129.6	134.6	132.7
3	Georgia	125.7	123.6	126.1	125.1
4	Michigan	122.9	120.8	123.6	122.4
5	L S U	123.5	120.4	122.2	122.0
6	Ohio St.	121.1	119.3	121.3	120.6
7	Notre Dame	121.0	119.1	121.5	120.5
8	Oklahoma	120.5	119.4	120.1	120.0
9	Florida	120.7	117.8	119.7	119.4
10	Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	116.7	117.2
11	Utah	116.6	114.7	116.8	116.0
12	Auburn	117.0	114.4	116.1	115.8
13	Mississippi St.	117.5	112.5	117.2	115.7
14	Michigan St.	115.6	115.3	115.7	115.5
15	Penn St.	115.0	113.9	114.9	114.6
16	Missouri	115.5	112.4	115.5	114.5
17	Iowa	115.1	112.6	114.9	114.2
18	Oregon	113.3	113.5	114.6	113.8
19	South Carolina	113.8	112.2	113.7	113.2
20	Washington	112.7	111.9	113.8	112.8
21	Iowa St.	111.8	112.2	111.7	111.9
22	Syracuse	111.9	111.5	112.0	111.8
23	Washington St.	112.0	110.7	112.2	111.6
24	Tennessee	111.8	111.6	110.3	111.2
25	Minnesota	111.8	111.2	110.6	111.2
26	Texas	111.4	111.2	110.7	111.1
27	Northwestern	111.3	110.4	110.3	110.7
28	Purdue	110.4	110.3	110.0	110.2
29	Baylor	110.3	110.2	109.8	110.1
30	Miami (Fla.)	109.6	108.3	110.8	109.6
31	Oklahoma St.	109.6	110.0	108.9	109.5
32	Wisconsin	109.7	109.0	109.0	109.2
33	Virginia Tech	108.5	109.1	109.2	108.9
34	Indiana	109.6	107.8	108.6	108.7
35	Stanford	108.7	107.5	108.8	108.3
36	Central Florida	108.1	107.1	109.2	108.1
37	Kentucky	108.8	107.5	107.6	108.0
38	Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	108.5	107.7
39	Pittsburgh	108.0	107.6	107.4	107.7
40	Nebraska	107.2	108.8	107.0	107.7
41	California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4
42	Virginia	107.1	107.7	107.2	107.3
43	Texas Tech	107.5	107.6	106.6	107.2
44	U C L A	107.1	106.9	106.3	106.8
45	Kansas St.	107.0	106.8	106.6	106.8
46	Cincinnati	106.8	105.0	107.0	106.3
47	West Virginia	106.4	106.2	105.9	106.1
48	Utah St.	105.6	104.3	107.0	105.6
49	Florida St.	105.2	105.9	105.4	105.5
50	Boise St.	105.2	104.3	105.5	105.0
51	U S C	103.8	105.2	104.2	104.4
52	Appalachian St.	105.4	103.3	104.5	104.4
53	Boston College	104.1	103.5	104.6	104.1
54	Memphis	103.8	103.3	105.0	104.0
55	Duke	104.0	103.8	103.8	103.9
56	Vanderbilt	104.5	103.3	103.6	103.8
57	Wake Forest	103.4	102.8	103.5	103.2
58	T C U	101.8	105.6	102.2	103.2
59	Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7
60	North Carolina St.	102.5	102.2	103.1	102.6
61	Temple	102.2	101.0	103.5	102.2
62	Arizona	101.9	102.0	102.4	102.1
63	Maryland	102.3	101.8	101.1	101.7
64	BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7
65	Ole Miss	102.2	101.1	100.9	101.4
66	North Carolina	99.5	100.9	101.0	100.5
67	Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.4	100.1
68	Georgia Tech	100.1	98.6	101.0	99.9
69	Colorado	100.0	99.0	100.1	99.7
70	Arkansas	99.5	100.5	98.8	99.6
71	Western Michigan	99.6	98.2	99.9	99.2
72	SMU	99.4	98.4	99.6	99.1
73	Georgia Southern	98.5	98.0	97.9	98.2
74	Air Force	96.7	98.0	97.5	97.4
75	Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.3	97.2
76	Houston	95.4	96.7	98.2	96.7
77	Ohio	96.5	95.2	98.0	96.6
78	Tulane	95.9	96.6	96.0	96.2
79	Hawaii	95.7	97.7	95.0	96.1
80	Kansas	95.3	96.5	95.0	95.6
81	South Florida	94.6	95.9	95.1	95.2
82	Wyoming	94.0	96.6	94.8	95.1
83	Oregon St.	94.8	96.2	93.6	94.9
84	San Diego St.	94.2	96.2	93.9	94.8
85	Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8
86	Florida Int’l.	94.0	93.7	94.8	94.2
87	Northern Illinois	94.5	93.2	94.6	94.1
88	Louisville	94.7	94.2	93.0	93.9
89	Southern Miss.	94.6	92.2	94.9	93.9
90	Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2
91	North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1
92	Nevada	92.2	93.9	91.8	92.6
93	Louisiana	92.5	92.9	91.4	92.3
94	Tulsa	91.5	91.9	92.5	92.0
95	Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.1	92.6	91.9
96	Rutgers	91.9	91.9	91.5	91.8
97	Arkansas St.	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5
98	Louisiana Tech	91.1	90.8	91.2	91.0
99	Toledo	90.5	90.8	91.6	90.9
100	Middle Tennessee	90.7	90.0	90.8	90.5
101	Miami (Ohio)	90.7	89.0	91.1	90.3
102	Louisiana-Monroe	89.2	89.9	89.2	89.4
103	Eastern Michigan	89.0	89.2	89.8	89.4
104	Buffalo	88.2	89.0	89.2	88.8
105	Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7
106	Western Kentucky	87.9	88.7	89.4	88.6
107	U A B	87.2	89.1	87.7	88.0
108	U N L V	86.4	88.9	86.5	87.3
109	Navy	86.2	89.2	85.8	87.1
110	Charlotte	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7
111	East Carolina	85.2	87.6	85.1	86.0
112	Ball St.	85.8	85.4	85.3	85.5
113	Kent St.	85.0	85.5	85.2	85.2
114	San Jose St.	83.8	86.0	82.9	84.2
115	Georgia St.	84.0	85.6	83.0	84.2
116	Texas St.	83.8	84.9	83.8	84.2
117	New Mexico	83.2	86.3	82.6	84.1
118	Akron	83.3	83.4	83.5	83.4
119	Coastal Carolina	81.4	82.6	80.2	81.4
120	Colorado St.	79.4	84.2	79.5	81.0
121	New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0
122	Bowling Green	78.5	78.5	78.9	78.7
123	Central Michigan	78.1	79.2	78.2	78.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	77.2	80.0	76.9	78.0
125	Rice	77.1	78.8	76.4	77.5
126	Old Dominion	75.7	76.0	75.7	75.8
127	South Alabama	74.3	78.0	73.1	75.2
128	Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6
129	Connecticut	73.6	77.9	72.1	74.5
130	U T E P	66.9	72.6	67.3	68.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	108.1	107.1	109.2	108.1	0-0	0-0
Cincinnati	106.8	105.0	107.0	106.3	0-0	0-0
Temple	102.2	101.0	103.5	102.2	0-0	0-0
South Florida	94.6	95.9	95.1	95.2	0-0	0-0
East Carolina	85.2	87.6	85.1	86.0	0-0	0-0
Connecticut	73.6	77.9	72.1	74.5	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	103.8	103.3	105.0	104.0	0-0	0-0
SMU	99.4	98.4	99.6	99.1	0-0	0-0
Houston	95.4	96.7	98.2	96.7	0-0	0-0
Tulane	95.9	96.6	96.0	96.2	0-0	0-0
Tulsa	91.5	91.9	92.5	92.0	0-0	0-0
Navy	86.2	89.2	85.8	87.1	0-0	0-0
AAC Averages	95.2	95.9	95.8	95.6
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.8	129.6	134.6	132.7	0-0	0-0
Syracuse	111.9	111.5	112.0	111.8	0-0	0-0
Florida St.	105.2	105.9	105.4	105.5	0-0	0-0
Boston College	104.1	103.5	104.6	104.1	0-0	0-0
Wake Forest	103.4	102.8	103.5	103.2	0-0	0-0
North Carolina St.	102.5	102.2	103.1	102.6	0-0	0-0
Louisville	94.7	94.2	93.0	93.9	0-0	0-0
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami (Fla.)	109.6	108.3	110.8	109.6	0-0	0-0
Virginia Tech	108.5	109.1	109.2	108.9	0-0	0-0
Pittsburgh	108.0	107.6	107.4	107.7	0-0	0-0
Virginia	107.1	107.7	107.2	107.3	0-0	0-0
Duke	104.0	103.8	103.8	103.9	0-0	0-0
North Carolina	99.5	100.9	101.0	100.5	0-0	0-0
Georgia Tech	100.1	98.6	101.0	99.9	0-0	0-0
ACC Averages	106.6	106.1	106.9	106.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	120.5	119.4	120.1	120.0	0-0	0-0
Iowa St.	111.8	112.2	111.7	111.9	0-0	0-0
Texas	111.4	111.2	110.7	111.1	0-0	0-0
Baylor	110.3	110.2	109.8	110.1	0-0	0-0
Oklahoma St.	109.6	110.0	108.9	109.5	0-0	0-0
Texas Tech	107.5	107.6	106.6	107.2	0-0	0-0
Kansas St.	107.0	106.8	106.6	106.8	0-0	0-0
West Virginia	106.4	106.2	105.9	106.1	0-0	0-0
T C U	101.8	105.6	102.2	103.2	0-0	0-0
Kansas	95.3	96.5	95.0	95.6	0-0	0-0
Big 12 Averages	108.2	108.6	107.7	108.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	122.9	120.8	123.6	122.4	0-0	0-0
Ohio St.	121.1	119.3	121.3	120.6	0-0	0-0
Michigan St.	115.6	115.3	115.7	115.5	0-0	0-0
Penn St.	115.0	113.9	114.9	114.6	0-0	0-0
Indiana	109.6	107.8	108.6	108.7	0-0	0-0
Maryland	102.3	101.8	101.1	101.7	0-0	0-0
Rutgers	91.9	91.9	91.5	91.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	115.1	112.6	114.9	114.2	0-0	0-0
Minnesota	111.8	111.2	110.6	111.2	0-0	0-0
Northwestern	111.3	110.4	110.3	110.7	0-0	0-0
Purdue	110.4	110.3	110.0	110.2	0-0	0-0
Wisconsin	109.7	109.0	109.0	109.2	0-0	0-0
Nebraska	107.2	108.8	107.0	107.7	0-0	0-0
Illinois	97.2	98.1	96.3	97.2	0-0	0-0
Big Ten Averages	110.1	109.4	109.6	109.7
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Int’l.	94.0	93.7	94.8	94.2	0-0	0-0
Marshall	93.1	92.6	94.0	93.2	0-0	0-0
Florida Atlantic	91.9	91.1	92.6	91.9	0-0	0-0
Middle Tennessee	90.7	90.0	90.8	90.5	0-0	0-0
Western Kentucky	87.9	88.7	89.4	88.6	0-0	0-0
Charlotte	86.4	87.0	86.8	86.7	0-0	0-0
Old Dominion	75.7	76.0	75.7	75.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Southern Miss.	94.6	92.2	94.9	93.9	0-0	0-0
North Texas	93.0	92.3	93.9	93.1	0-0	0-0
Louisiana Tech	91.1	90.8	91.2	91.0	0-0	0-0
U A B	87.2	89.1	87.7	88.0	0-0	0-0
Texas-San Antonio	77.2	80.0	76.9	78.0	0-0	0-0
Rice	77.1	78.8	76.4	77.5	0-0	0-0
U T E P	66.9	72.6	67.3	68.9	0-0	0-0
CUSA Averages	86.2	86.8	86.6	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	121.0	119.1	121.5	120.5	x	0-0
Army	102.8	102.7	102.6	102.7	x	0-0
BYU	101.6	101.7	101.8	101.7	x	0-0
Liberty	88.1	89.6	88.6	88.7	x	0-0
New Mexico St.	78.0	81.2	77.8	79.0	x	0-0
Massachusetts	73.7	76.8	73.3	74.6	x	0-0
Indep. Averages	94.2	95.2	94.3	94.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio	96.5	95.2	98.0	96.6	0-0	0-0
Miami (Ohio)	90.7	89.0	91.1	90.3	0-0	0-0
Buffalo	88.2	89.0	89.2	88.8	0-0	0-0
Kent St.	85.0	85.5	85.2	85.2	0-0	0-0
Akron	83.3	83.4	83.5	83.4	0-0	0-0
Bowling Green	78.5	78.5	78.9	78.7	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Western Michigan	99.6	98.2	99.9	99.2	0-0	0-0
Northern Illinois	94.5	93.2	94.6	94.1	0-0	0-0
Toledo	90.5	90.8	91.6	90.9	0-0	0-0
Eastern Michigan	89.0	89.2	89.8	89.4	0-0	0-0
Ball St.	85.8	85.4	85.3	85.5	0-0	0-0
Central Michigan	78.1	79.2	78.2	78.5	0-0	0-0
MAC Averages	88.3	88.1	88.8	88.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	105.6	104.3	107.0	105.6	0-0	0-0
Boise St.	105.2	104.3	105.5	105.0	0-0	0-0
Air Force	96.7	98.0	97.5	97.4	0-0	0-0
Wyoming	94.0	96.6	94.8	95.1	0-0	0-0
New Mexico	83.2	86.3	82.6	84.1	0-0	0-0
Colorado St.	79.4	84.2	79.5	81.0	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	99.6	100.2	100.4	100.1	0-0	0-0
Hawaii	95.7	97.7	95.0	96.1	0-0	0-0
San Diego St.	94.2	96.2	93.9	94.8	0-0	0-0
Nevada	92.2	93.9	91.8	92.6	0-0	0-0
U N L V	86.4	88.9	86.5	87.3	0-0	0-0
San Jose St.	83.8	86.0	82.9	84.2	0-0	0-0
MWC Averages	93.0	94.7	93.1	93.6
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Oregon	113.3	113.5	114.6	113.8	0-0	0-0
Washington	112.7	111.9	113.8	112.8	0-0	0-0
Washington St.	112.0	110.7	112.2	111.6	0-0	0-0
Stanford	108.7	107.5	108.8	108.3	0-0	0-0
California	107.0	107.0	108.3	107.4	0-0	0-0
Oregon St.	94.8	96.2	93.6	94.9	0-0	0-0
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	114.7	116.8	116.0	0-0	0-0
Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	108.5	107.7	0-0	0-0
U C L A	107.1	106.9	106.3	106.8	0-0	0-0
U S C	103.8	105.2	104.2	104.4	0-0	0-0
Arizona	101.9	102.0	102.4	102.1	0-0	0-0
Colorado	100.0	99.0	100.1	99.7	0-0	0-0
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	106.8	107.5	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	125.7	123.6	126.1	125.1	0-0	0-0
Florida	120.7	117.8	119.7	119.4	0-0	0-0
Missouri	115.5	112.4	115.5	114.5	0-0	0-0
South Carolina	113.8	112.2	113.7	113.2	0-0	0-0
Tennessee	111.8	111.6	110.3	111.2	0-0	0-0
Kentucky	108.8	107.5	107.6	108.0	0-0	0-0
Vanderbilt	104.5	103.3	103.6	103.8	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	135.3	130.6	136.1	134.0	0-0	0-0
L S U	123.5	120.4	122.2	122.0	0-0	0-0
Texas A&M	118.3	116.6	116.7	117.2	0-0	0-0
Auburn	117.0	114.4	116.1	115.8	0-0	0-0
Mississippi St.	117.5	112.5	117.2	115.7	0-0	0-0
Ole Miss	102.2	101.1	100.9	101.4	0-0	0-0
Arkansas	99.5	100.5	98.8	99.6	0-0	0-0
SEC Averages	115.3	113.2	114.6	114.4
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	105.4	103.3	104.5	104.4	0-0	0-0
Georgia Southern	98.5	98.0	97.9	98.2	0-0	0-0
Troy	94.9	95.5	93.9	94.8	0-0	0-0
Georgia St.	84.0	85.6	83.0	84.2	0-0	0-0
Coastal Carolina	81.4	82.6	80.2	81.4	0-0	0-0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Louisiana	92.5	92.9	91.4	92.3	0-0	0-0
Arkansas St.	91.4	91.7	91.3	91.5	0-0	0-0
Louisiana-Monroe	89.2	89.9	89.2	89.4	0-0	0-0
Texas St.	83.8	84.9	83.8	84.2	0-0	0-0
South Alabama	74.3	78.0	73.1	75.2	0-0	0-0
SBC Averages	89.5	90.2	88.8	89.5

 

Conference Power Ratings
#	League	Average
1	SEC	114.4
2	BTen	109.7
3	B12	108.2
4	P12	107.1
5	ACC	106.5
6	AAC	95.6
7	Ind	94.5
8	MWC	93.6
9	SUN	89.5
10	MAC	88.4
11	CUSA	86.5

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Cincinnati
3	Utah St.
4	Boise St.
5	Appalachian St.

 

 

Preseason Bowl Projections

 

Bowl	Conf	Conf	Team	Team
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Western Michigan	Southern Miss.
Frisco	AAC	At-large	Houston	Florida Int’l.
Cure	AAC	SBC	Temple	Georgia Southern
New Mexico	CUSA	MWC	Louisiana Tech	San Diego St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	Ohio
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Eastern Michigan	Louisiana
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Utah St.	UCLA
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC #1	UAB	Appalachian St.
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Hawaii	BYU/MWC	AAC	BYU	Memphis
Independence	ACC	SEC	Florida St.	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Northwestern
Military	ACC	AAC	Pittsburgh	South Florida
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	Minnesota
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Pac-12	Big Ten	Washington St.	Iowa
Cheez-It	Big 12	Pac-12	West Virginia	Hawaii
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Miami (Fla.)	Iowa St.
Cotton	At-large	At-large	Army	Washington
First Responder	CUSA	Big 12	Marshall	TCU
Redbox	Pac-12	Big Ten	Stanford	Wisconsin
Music City	SEC	ACC	Indiana	Wake Forest
Orange	ACC	BTen/SEC	Notre Dame	Florida
Belk	ACC	SEC	Syracuse	Tennessee
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Virginia Tech	Arizona St.
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas	Kentucky
Arizona	SBC	MWC	Troy	Fresno St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	Oregon
Citrus	SEC	BTen/ACC	Texas A&M	Nebraska
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Auburn	Penn St.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Utah
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	SMU	North Carolina St.
Taxslayer/Gator	SEC	Big Ten	South Carolina	Michigan St.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Air Force
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Purdue	Boise St.
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Arkansas St.
FBS PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	Top 4	Top 4	Clemson	Georgia
Peach	Top 4	Top 4	Alabama	Michigan
Champsionship	Fiesta	Peach	Clemson	Alabama
Italics–At-large team because the conference cannot fulfill its allotment

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament For Sunday, March 24, 2019

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Tennessee	117.9	0.0	Iowa	111.4	6.5
North Carolina	121.3	0.0	Washington	109.7	11.6
Duke	122.9	0.0	Central Florida	110.0	12.9
Texas Tech	118.0	0.0	Buffalo	115.2	2.8
Virginia Tech	115.5	0.0	Liberty	107.3	8.2
Virginia	120.8	0.0	Oklahoma	111.4	9.4
Houston	115.3	0.0	Ohio St.	110.2	5.1
Oregon	110.8	0.0	UC Irvine	106.6	4.2

Sunday’s Schedule

Time	Game	Network	Site
12:10 PM	Tennessee vs. Iowa	CBS	Columbus
2:40 PM	North Carolina vs. Washington	CBS	Columbus
5:15 PM	Duke vs. Central Florida	CBS	Columbia
6:10 PM	Texas Tech vs. Buffalo	TNT	Tulsa
7:10 PM	Virginia Tech vs. Liberty	TBS	San Jose
7:45 PM	Virginia vs. Oklahoma	TruTV	Columbia
8:40 PM	Houston vs. Ohio St.	TNT	Tulsa
9:40 PM	Oregon vs. UC-Irvine	TBS	San Jose

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Thursday, March 14, 2019

Thursday’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Akron	103.5	1.0	Buffalo	113.6	-9.1
Arizona St.	108.4	0.0	UCLA	104.9	3.5
Auburn	115.7	0.0	Missouri	106.1	9.6
Baylor	110.6	0.0	Iowa St.	114.1	-3.5
Bowling Green	103.0	0.0	Ball St.	102.8	0.2
Cal St. Fullerton	98.9	0.0	UC Davis	95.6	3.3
Duke	123.2	1.0	Syracuse	111.3	12.9
Duquesne	100.1	0.0	Saint Joseph’s	99.4	0.7
Eastern Washington	95.5	0.0	Montana St.	95.2	0.3
Florida	111.7	0.0	Arkansas	108.7	3.0
Florida St.	114.7	0.0	Virginia Tech	116.5	-1.8
Fresno St.	107.5	0.0	Air Force	94.8	12.7
George Mason	101.4	0.0	George Washington	93.3	8.1
Grand Canyon	104.7	0.0	Seattle	98.6	6.1
Howard	91.4	0.0	Bethune-Cookman	92.5	-1.1
Illinois	106.2	1.5	Iowa	110.9	-3.2
Kansas	114.9	1.5	Texas	112.0	4.4
Kansas St.	113.2	1.0	TCU	110.0	4.2
Kent St.	101.5	0.0	Central Michigan	101.9	-0.4
Long Beach St.	96.9	2.0	Hawaii	98.4	0.5
Louisiana	99.7	1.0	South Alabama	97.4	3.3
Louisiana Monroe	101.3	1.0	Coastal Carolina	100.7	1.6
Maryland	113.4	0.0	Nebraska	110.5	2.9
Memphis	106.8	3.0	Tulane	92.9	16.9
Minnesota	109.3	0.0	Penn St.	110.2	-0.9
Mississippi St.	113.4	0.0	Texas A&M	105.4	8.0
Montana	102.8	0.0	Sacramento St.	94.2	8.6
Nevada	115.0	1.0	Boise St.	102.6	13.4
New Mexico St.	107.7	0.0	Chicago St.	79.3	28.4
New Orleans	94	0.0	Lamar	98.0	-4.0
North Carolina	121.0	1.0	Louisville	114.0	8.0
North Carolina Central	92.8	0.0	Delaware St.	79.5	13.3
North Texas	100.9	1.5	Western Kentucky	103.1	-0.7
Northern Colorado	100.4	0.0	Southern Utah	93.0	7.4
Ohio St.	110.3	0.0	Indiana	110.6	-0.3
Old Dominion	103.8	0.0	Louisiana Tech	101.8	2.0
Ole Miss	110.1	0.0	Alabama	108.0	2.1
Oregon St.	106.2	0.0	Colorado	107.0	-0.8
Rhode Island	102.4	0.0	La Salle	97.2	5.2
Saint Louis	103.3	0.0	Richmond	99.0	4.3
Seton Hall	108.4	0.0	Georgetown	106.3	2.1
South Florida	103.2	0.0	Connecticut	105.2	-2.0
Southeastern Louisiana	94.7	0.0	Central Arkansas	91.6	3.1
Southern Miss.	103.4	0.0	Marshall	99.7	3.7
St. John’s	107.8	1.5	Marquette	112.6	-3.3
Texas Tech	118.3	0.0	West Virginia	104.9	13.4
Toledo	107.9	0.0	Northern Illinois	101.1	6.8
Tulsa	103.2	0.0	SMU	104.2	-1.0
UC Irvine	105.5	0.0	UC Riverside	91.6	13.9
UC Santa Barbara	101.0	0.0	Cal St. Northridge	93.7	7.3
UNLV	101.1	2.5	San Diego St.	103.8	-0.2
UT Rio Grande Valley	97.6	0.0	Cal St. Bakersfield	96.7	0.9
Utah	104.2	0.0	Oregon	109.3	-5.1
Utah St.	110.0	0.0	New Mexico	99.3	10.7
Utah Valley	104.0	0.0	Missouri Kansas City	95.0	9.0
UTSA	99.8	0.0	UAB	100.1	-0.3
Villanova	113.3	0.0	Providence	106.7	6.6
Virginia	123.3	0.0	North Carolina St.	112.9	10.4
Washington	105.5	0.0	USC	105.7	-0.2
Weber St.	98.5	0.0	Portland St.	94.7	3.8
Wichita St.	104.8	0.0	East Carolina	93.7	11.1
Xavier	107.2	0.0	Creighton	110.0	-2.8

 

Conference Tournaments Update

American Athletic Conference
Site: Fedex Forum, Memphis, TN
First Round–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	South Florida (19-12)	9	Connecticut (15-16)
5	Memphis (19-12)	12	Tulane (4-26)
7	Tulsa (18-13)	10	SMU (14-16)
6	Wichita St. (17-13)	11	East Carolina (10-20)

 

 

Atlantic 10 Conference
Site: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
George Washington	68	Massachusetts	64 ot
Richmond	52	Fordham	50

Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Rhode Island (16-14)	9	La Salle (10-20)
5	George Mason (17-14)	12	George Washington (9-23)
7	Duquesne (19-12)	10	Saint Joseph’s (13-18)
6	Saint Louis (19-12)	11	Richmond (13-19)

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Site: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Second Round–Wednesday, March 13
North Carolina St.	59	Clemson	58
Virginia Tech	71	Miami (Fla)	56
Louisville	75	Notre Dame	53
Syracuse	73	Pittsburgh	59

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Virginia (28-2)	8	North Carolina St. (22-10)
4	Florida St. (25-6)	5	Virginia Tech (24-7)
2	North Carolina (26-5)	7	Louisville (20-12)
3	Duke (26-5)	6	Syracuse (20-12)

 

 

Big 12 Conference
Site: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
TCU	73	Oklahoma St.	70
West Virginia	72	Oklahoma	71

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Kansas St. (24-7)	8	TCU (20-12)
4	Baylor (19-12)	5	Iowa St. (20-11)
2	Texas Tech (26-5)	10	West Virginia (13-19)
3	Kansas (23-8)	6	Texas (16-15)

 

 

Big East Conference
Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
Providence	80	Butler	57
St. John’s	82	DePaul	74

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Villanova (22-9)	8	Providence (18-14)
4	Xavier (16-14)	5	Creighton (18-13)
2	Marquette (23-8)	7	St. John’s (21-11)
3	Seton Hall (18-12)	6	Georgetown (19-12)

 

Big Sky Conference
Site: Century Link Arena, Boise, ID
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
Sacramento St.	72	Northern Arizona	60
Southern Utah	94	Idaho St.	80
Montana St.	75	Idaho	71

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Montana (23-8)	9	Sacramento St. (15-15)
4	Weber St. (17-14)	5	Portland St. (16-15)
2	Northern Colorado (21-10)	7	Southern Utah (15-15)
3	Eastern Washington (14-17)	6	Montana St. (15-16)

 

 

Big Ten Conference
Site: United Center, Chicago, IL
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
Nebraska	68	Rutgers	61
Illinois	74	Northwestern	69 ot

Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Ohio St. (18-13)	9	Indiana (17-14)
5	Maryland (22-9)	13	Nebraska (17-15)
7	Minnesota (19-12)	10	Penn St. (14-17)
6	Iowa (21-10)	11	Illinois (12-20)

 

 

Big West Conference
Site: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	UC Irvine (27-5)	8	Cal St. Riverside (10-22)
4	Hawaii (18-12)	5	Long Beach St. (14-18)
3	Cal St. Fullerton (14-16)	6	UC Davis (11-19)
2	UC Santa Barbara (21-9)	7	Cal St. Northridge (13-19)

 

 

Conference USA
Site: Ford Center, Frisco, TX
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
Louisiana Tech	57	Florida Atlantic	56
UAB	70	Middle Tennessee	61
North Texas	71	Florida Int’l.	57
Marshall	82	Rice	65

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Old Dominion (23-8)	8	Louisiana Tech (20-12)
4	UTSA (17-14)	5	UAB (19-13)
2	Western Kentucky (18-13)	10	North Texas (21-11)
3	Southern Miss. (19-11)	6	Marshall (19-13)

 

Mid-American Conference (MACtion)

Site: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Buffalo (28-3)	8/9	Akron/Miami (O)
4	Kent St. (22-9)	5	Central Michigan (22-10)
2	Toledo (25-6)	7	Northern Illinois (16-16)
3	Bowling Green (20-11)	11	Ball St. (16-16)

 

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference
Site: Scope Arena, Norfolk, VA
Quarterfinals–Wednesday, March 13
North Carolina A&T	82	Coppin St.	79 ot
Norfolk St.	78	South Carolina St.	73

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14

3

North Carolina Central (15-15)

11

Delaware St. (6-24)

4

Howard (16-15)

5

Bethune-Cookman (14-16)

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Site: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
Boise St.	66	Colorado St.	57
New Mexico	78	Wyoming	68
Air Force	87	San Jose St.	56

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Nevada (28-3)	9	Boise St. (13-19)
4	San Diego St. (19-11)	5	UNLV (17-13)
2	Utah St. (25-6)	7	New Mexico (14-17)
3	Fresno St. (21-8)	6	Air Force (14-17)

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
Site: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
USC	78	Arizona	65
Colorado	56	California	51
UCLA	79	Stanford	72
Oregon	84	Washington St.	51

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Washington (24-7)	8	USC (16-16)
4	Oregon St. (18-12)	5	Colorado (20-11)
2	Arizona St. (21-9)	7	UCLA (17-15)
3	Utah (17-13)	6	Oregon (20-12)

 

 

Patriot League
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Championship Game–Wednesday, March 13
Colgate	94	Bucknell	80

Champion: Colgate (24-10)

 

 

Southland Conference
Site: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
Lamar	81	Houston Baptist	79
Central Arkansas	73	Texas A&M CC	53

Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	New Orleans (17-12)	5	Lamar (20-12)
3	Southeastern Louisiana (16-15)	7	Central Arkansas (14-18)

 

 

Southeastern Conference
Site: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
First Round–Wednesday, March 13
Missouri	71	Georgia	61
Texas A&M	69	Vanderbilt	52

Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
8	Florida (17-14)	9	Arkansas (17-14)
5	Auburn (22-9)	12	Missouri (15-16)
7	Ole Miss (20-11)	10	Alabama (17-14)
6	Mississippi St. (22-9)	11	Texas A&M (14-17)

 

Sun Belt Conference

Site:  Lakefront Arena, New Orleans, LA

Second Round–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
6	Coastal Carolina (15-15)	7	Louisiana Monroe (17-14)
5	Louisiana (19-12)	8	South Alabama (16-16)

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Thursday, March 14
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	New Mexico St. (27-4)	8	Chicago St. (3-28)
4	UT Rio Grande Valley (18-15)	5	Cal St. Bakersfield (16-14)
3	Grand Canyon (18-12)	6	Seattle (18-13)
2	Utah Valley (23-8)	7	Missouri Kansas City (11-20)

 

 

Automatic Bids To The NCAA Tournament

Team	Conf	W-L
Liberty	Atlantic Sun	28-6
Gardner-Webb	Big South	23-11
Murray St.	Ohio Valley	27-4
Bradley	Missouri Valley	20-14
Wofford	Southern	29-4
Iona	Metro Atlantic	17-15
Fairleigh-Dickinson	Northeast	20-13
Northern Kentucky	Horizon	26-8
Northeastern	Colonial	23-10
Saint Mary’s	West Coast	22-11
North Dakota St.	Summit	18-15
Colgate	Patriot	24-10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For Wednesday, March 13, 2019

March 13, 2019
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Virginia	Gonzaga	Kentucky	North Carolina
2	Duke	Michigan St.	Tennessee	LSU
3	Michigan	Texas Tech	Houston	Purdue
4	Florida St.	Wisconsin	Kansas	Kansas St.
5	Virginia Tech	Maryland	Mississippi St.	Nevada
6	Buffalo	Villanova	Marquette	Auburn
7	Wofford	Cincinnati	Louisville	Iowa St.
8	Baylor	VCU	Iowa	Ole Miss
9	Syracuse	Washington	Central Florida	Oklahoma
10	Minnesota	Seton Hall	Utah St.	TCU
11	Temple	Arizona St.	North Carolina St.	Ohio St./St. John’s
12	Florida/Clemson	Saint Mary’s	Murray St.	New Mexico St.
13	Liberty	Vermont	Old Dominion	UC-Irvine
14	Montana	Northeastern	Northern Kentucky	Georgia St.
15	Yale	Bradley	Bucknell	Gardner-Webb
16	Sam Houston St.	Prairie View	Iona/Fairleigh-Dickinson	North Dakota St./Norfolk St.

 

Last 4 Byes

TCU

Temple

Arizona St.

North Carolina St.

 

Last 4 In

Ohio St.

St. John’s

Clemson

Florida

 

First 4 Out

Creighton

Indiana

Georgetown

Texas

Next 4 Out

Alabama

Belmont

Nebraska

UNC Greensboro

 

Bids By Conference

Conference	Bids
ACC	9
Big Ten	8
Big 12	7
SEC	7
Big East	4
AAC	4
MWC	2
Pac-12	2
West Coast	2
One-Bid Leagues	23

 

Automatic Bids To Date

Team	Conf	W-L
Liberty	Atlantic Sun	28-6
Gardner-Webb	Big South	23-11
Murray St.	Ohio Valley	27-4
Bradley	Missouri Valley	20-14
Wofford	Southern	29-4
Iona	Metro Atlantic	17-15
Fairleigh-Dickinson	Northeast	20-13
Northern Kentucky	Horizon	26-8
Northeastern	Colonial	23-10
Saint Mary’s	West Coast	22-11
North Dakota St.	Summit	18-15

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For Sunday, March 10, 2019

Today’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Rating	HCA	Visitor	Rating	Spread
Lipscomb	109.0	3.0	Liberty	105.9	6.1
Radford	102.7	2.5	Gardner-Webb	99.3	5.9
Hofstra	106.5	0.0	James Madison	93.8	12.7
William & Mary	97.6	0.0	Delaware	94.7	2.9
Northeastern	105.6	0.0	UNC Wilmington	94.7	10.9
Charleston	103.4	1.0	Drexel	95.2	9.2
Siena	95.4	2.5	Iona	97.7	0.2
Canisius	95.1	0.0	Monmouth	93.3	1.8
Northern Iowa	99.1	0.0	Bradley	99.5	-0.4
Colgate	102.1	2.5	Navy	92.8	11.8
Bucknell	101.4	2.5	Lehigh	100.3	3.6
Wofford	112.9	0.0	East Tennessee St.	106.6	6.3
UNC Greensboro	105.5	0.0	Furman	107.9	-2.4
North Dakota St.	97.5	0.0	Oral Roberts	92.8	4.7
South Dakota	97.4	1.0	Purdue Fort Wayne	98.7	-0.3
Cincinnati	111.8	3.0	Houston	114.5	0.3
Penn St.	109.9	2.5	Illinois	106.5	5.9
Indiana	110.4	3.0	Rutgers	106.3	7.1
East Carolina	93.7	2.5	Connecticut	105.2	-9.0
Nebraska	110.5	3.0	Iowa	110.8	2.7
South Florida	103.5	3.0	SMU	103.8	2.7
Ohio St.	110.3	3.0	Wisconsin	115.5	-2.2

Conference Tournaments Update

America East Conference
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Md.-Baltimore Co.	62	Albany	54
Vermont	73	Maine	57
Binghamton	73	Stony Brook	71
Hartford	78	UMass Lowell	70

 

Semifinals–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Vermont (25-6)	7	Binghamton (10-22)
3	Maryland-Baltimore Co. (20-12)	4	Hartford (18-14)

 

 

Atlantic Sun Conference

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Lipscomb (25-6)	2	Liberty (27-6)

 

 

Big South Conference

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 (at Radford) ***
Seed	Home Team	Seed	Visitors
2	Radford (22-10)	4	Gardner-Webb (22-11)

 

 

Colonial Athletic Association
Site: North Charleston Coliseum, North Charleston, SC
First Round–Saturday, March 9
James Madison	74	Towson	73
UNC Wilmington	93	Elon	86

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Hofstra (25-6)	8	James Madison (14-18)
4	William & Mary (14-16)	5	Delaware (16-15)
2	Northeastern (20-10)	10	UNC Wilmington (10-22)
3	Charleston (23-8)	6	Drexel (13-18)

 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Site: Times Union Center, Albany, NY (Siena)

Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Monmouth	98	Quinnipiac	92
Siena	87	Rider	81

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Iona (15-15)	5	Siena (17-15)
2	Canisius (15-16)	6	Monmouth (13-20)

 

 

Missouri Valley Conference (Arch Madness)
Site: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
Bradley	53	Loyola (Chi)	51
Northern Iowa	60	Drake	58

*** Championship Game–Sunday, March 10 ***
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
6	Northern Iowa (16-17)	5	Bradley (19-14)

 

Northeast Conference
All games at home floor of higher seeds
Semifinals–Saturday, March 9
St. Francis (PA)	72	Long Island	64
Fairleigh-Dickinson	66	Robert Morris	62

 

Championship Game–Tuesday, March 12
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	St. Francis (PA) (18-13)	2	Fairleigh-Dickinson (19-13)

 

 

Ohio Valley Conference
*** Championship Game–Saturday, March 9 ***
Murray St.	77	Belmont	65

Champion:  Murray St.  27-4

 

 

 

Patriot League

All games at home floor of higher seeds

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Home	Seed	Visitor
1	Colgate (22-10)	5	Navy (12-18)
2	Bucknell (20-10)	3	Lehigh (20-10)

 

 

Southern Conference
Site: US Cellular Center, Asheville, NC
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Wofford	99	VMI	72
East Tennessee St.	68	Chattanooga	64
UNC Greensboro	77	Samford	70
Furman	85	Mercer	74

 

Semifinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
1	Wofford (27-4)	4/5	East Tennessee St. (24-8)
2	UNC Greensboro (27-5)	3	Furman (25-6)

 

 

Summit League
Site: Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
Western Illinois	79	South Dakota St.	76
Omaha	81	North Dakota	76

 

Quarterfinals–Sunday, March 10
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
4	Purdue Fort Wayne (17-14)	5	South Dakota (13-16)
3	North Dakota St. (15-15)	6	Oral Roberts (11-20)

 

 

West Coast Conference
Site: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Quarterfinals–Saturday, March 9
San Diego	80	BYU	57
Pepperdine	89	San Francisco	72

 

Semifinals–Monday, March 11
Seed	Team	Seed	Team
2	Saint Mary’s (20-11)	6	San Diego (21-13)
1	Gonzaga (29-2)	8	Pepperdine (16-17)

 

Teams In The Big Dance

Murray St.  (OVC)  27-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for December 29-30, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Teams in Power Conferences

Saturday

Home Team	Visitor	Spread
North Carolina	Davidson	6.2
Notre Dame	Coppin St.	28.8
Louisville	Kentucky	-3.4
Wake Forest	Gardner-Webb	3.3
Syracuse	St. Bonaventure	11.8
Pittsburgh	Colgate	5.4
Miami (Fla.)	Campbell	12.4
Kansas	Eastern Michigan	17.1
Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M–C.C.	18.9
Baylor	New Orleans	14.5
Kansas St.	George Mason	17.0
Ohio St.	High Point	15.3
Penn St.	Md.-Baltimore Co.	6.0
Michigan St.	Northern Illinois	23.3
Illinois	Florida Atlantic	11.9
Rutgers	Maine	10.4
Purdue	Belmont	9.7
Western Kentucky	Wisconsin	-6.6
Maryland	Radford	8.3
Iowa	Bryant	26.6
Utah	Nevada	-10.1
Washington St.	Santa Clara	6.7
Arizona St.	Princeton	14.7
UCLA	Liberty	6.0
Boise St.	Oregon	2.7
California	Seattle	-0.2
Oregon St.	Central Connecticut	16.5
Stanford	Long Beach St.	9.9
Mississippi St.	BYU	6.8
Tennessee	Tennessee Tech	28.0
Vanderbilt	Tennessee St.	15.9
Missouri	Morehead St.	16.5
Ole Miss	Florida Gulf Coast	5.6
Texas A&M	Texas Southern	12.7
Florida	Butler	3.4
Auburn	North Florida	19.6

 

Sunday

Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Michigan	Binghamton	23.1
West Virginia	Lehigh	13.0
Clemson	Lipscomb	9.9
Minnesota	Mount St. Mary’s	15.2
Northwestern	Columbia	13.9
Georgia	U Mass	6.0
USC	UC-Davis	12.3

 

Basketball Ratings Explanation

We are very happy to have your patronage here at the PiRate Ratings, and we know that since the end of last basketball season, we have seen more than one thousand new readers discover us through other sites.  We really appreciate those of you that have sent us comments saying that you posted our site on sports forums.  We need to explain how we calculate our basketball ratings, which are entirely different from how we calculate our football ratings.

First, our basketball ratings are 100% derived from the “Four Factors” and Schedule Strength.  Thus, it takes a long time to input the ratings for each team, since all 353 teams’ statistics must be updated after every game played by every Division 1 team.  We can only do this late Thursday Night in order to publish on Friday.  You will only see us submit games involving Power Conference teams that are playing Division 1 opponents on Saturday or Sunday every week, until March.  We will occasionally add top Mid-Majors like Gonzaga, Buffalo, and Nevada, as long as they are in the top 25 or close to it and look like at-large candidates for the NCAA Tournament if they don’t get the automatic bid.

What are the Four Factors?

Those of you that know us know that our PiRate Captain is a baseball sabermetrician and former Major League analyticist and scout.  He likes to see the Four Factors as something similar to Weighted On-Base Average and WAR in baseball.  Since baseball players’ stats can be calculated to figure out expected wins, he believes that similar basketball data can be calculated to determine the winner in college basketball games.  He goes one step further, trying to find an algorithm that also estimates the pointspread.  This is an ongoing experiment in its fifth year, with the algorithm being tweaked a little each year, much like the wOBA numbers adjust every year in baseball.

Here are the Four Factors for College Basketball as Used by the PiRate Captain.  Because they apply to offense and defense, they are really like Eight Factors.

1.) Effective Field Goal Percentage 

This is a measure that combines two-point and three-point shooting percentages into one.  Since a made three-point basket is the same as 1.5 made two-point baskets, the easy calculation for this stat is. (FG + 0.5*3pt))/FGA

where FG is all field goals made, 3 pt is three-pointers made, and FGA is all field goals attempted.

If your team makes 28 baskets in a game, with 8 of those being 3-pointers and attempts 60 shots in a game, their EFG% is: (28+(0.5*8)/60, which equals 53.3%

 

2.) Turnover % 

This measures the percentage of possessions in which a team turns the ball over without a shot and conversely forces the opponent to turn the ball over without a shot.  The PiRates add a little bit of a twist to how most analytics folks use this one.  We will explain the R+T factor later, but for now consider that a steal is a more important turnover than all others, because many times a steal leads to easy points and possible fouls.

The TOV% is simply Turnovers per 100 possessions.  So that if a team has 70 possessions in a game and turns the ball over 14 times, their TOV% would be (14/70*100) = 20.0%

College Basketball Possessions are now kept for all games, but if you don’t have access to these stats, you can estimate possessions per game by the following formula used only for college and not NBA (slightly different formula for the pros)

FGA + (0.465* FTA) – Off Rebounds + Turnovers

 

3.) Offensive Rebounding Percentage

This is actually both offensive and defensive rebounding margin, since opponents’ offensive rebounding margin is the other teams’ defensive rebounding margin.

You calculate this for both teams by this easy formula: (100* Off. Rebounds) / (Off. Rebounds + other team’s Def. Rebounds)

If your team has 15 offensive rebounds, and the other team has 25 defensive rebounds, your team’s Off. Reb % is (100*15)/(15+25) =37.5%

 

4.) Free Throw Rate

The “experts” disagree on how to calculate this rating.  Some of the most famous people that release advanced metric cannot come to a consensus.  There is a problem with free throws to begin with, because late in games, the trailing team deliberately fouls the leading team, thus giving the most likely winner more chances at going to the foul line than the actual game flow indicates.  Earlier this year, a team we watched on TV had attempted 12 foul shots in the first 34 minutes of the game, and instead of being ahead by 20 points (which they should have been), they only led by 5 with 6 minutes to play.  The underdog team tried to play pressure defense but could not force turnovers, so they began fouling and fouling and fouling.  Meanwhile, they bricked a lot of 3-pointers at their end, and the final outcome was 17 points.  The winning team with just 12 FTA in the first 34 minutes shot 13 more in the final 6 minutes.

This is the type of thing that gives this part of the rating too much weighting, and we tend to lower the importance of this rating for that purpose.  Over the course of NCAA Basketball history, the top foul shooting teams have tended to underperform in the Big Dance, while the National Champions have tended to be a little below normal in free throw percentage but above normal in drawing fouls, again mostly because the other team is forced to foul in the final minutes.

This is the formula we use at the PiRate Ratings: FT Made per 100 possession.

We hope this explains a little about how we calculate our ratings.  Obviously, to explain our algorithm would be like giving you the formula for Coca-Cola or Pepsi.  Plus, it would be too difficult to explain how we back-tested numbers until we came up with the exact formula, which is tweaked a little every season.

Our Plan For 2019

We plan to issue two posts per week until the start of conference tournament play in late February.  Our Monday or Tuesday publication will be our most popular feature of the entire site.  We have a baker’s dozen of accurate bracketologists (some of whom have their own sites) that send us their weekly bracketology.  We call these guys (and one gal) our Bracket Gurus.  This will be the Gurus’ third year doing this for us.  In 2017, they went 68 for 68 correctly picking every team chosen for the field.  In 2018, they went 67 for 68, so in two years, they have picked 135 out of the 136 teams.  The famous bracketologists on the big national sites average about 65 1/2 correct every year, so our Gurus are better than the leading brands.

We will issue a Friday afternoon publication like this one.  The regular menu for Friday is to post the spreads of the power conference team games for the weekend, our PiRate Ratings rankings, and then something we hope you find of interest.  In the past, we have spotlighted low and mid-major teams that might have a chance to create a little havoc in March; featured the up and coming assistant coaches that we believe will become successful head coaches; and written a little about something interesting in basketball history.  Our captain has been watching college basketball since the 1963-64 season, and he can describe the UCLA-Duke championship game like he is watching live today.  It didn’t hurt that he was a left-handed point guard who thought Gail Goodrich was an older version of him until Louie Dampier starred for Kentucky once Goodrich graduated.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk	Team	PiRate Rating
1	Duke	122.9
2	Gonzaga	118.5
3	Virginia	117.8
4	Michigan St.	116.3
5	Virginia Tech	115.9
6	Texas Tech	115.2
7	Nevada	115.2
8	Tennessee	115.0
9	Auburn	114.7
10	Wisconsin	114.5
11	Iowa St.	113.7
12	Florida St.	113.4
13	Kansas St.	113.2
14	Villanova	113.0
15	Purdue	113.0
16	Oklahoma	112.6
17	Indiana	112.6
18	Cincinnati	112.0
19	TCU	111.9
20	Buffalo	111.6
21	Florida	111.5
22	Butler	111.1
23	Iowa	111.0
24	Kansas	110.8
25	Creighton	110.4
26	Houston	110.3
27	Mississippi St.	110.2
28	Clemson	110.1
29	Syracuse	110.0
30	Arizona St.	109.8
31	Texas	109.6
32	Michigan	109.6
33	UCF	109.5
34	Kentucky	109.4
35	San Francisco	109.1
36	Saint Mary’s	109.1
37	St. John’s	109.0
38	Utah St.	109.0
39	West Virginia	108.7
40	Fresno St.	108.3
41	Notre Dame	108.3
42	Arizona	108.0
43	Seton Hall	107.9
44	Oklahoma St.	107.9
45	North Carolina	107.8
46	Wofford	107.8
47	Nebraska	107.8
48	Northwestern	107.8
49	Washington	107.7
50	Ohio St.	107.6
51	Alabama	107.4
52	Maryland	107.3
53	Vanderbilt	107.3
54	Baylor	107.2
55	Providence	107.1
56	Toledo	107.1
57	Missouri	107.0