PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview for December 29-30, 2018

This Weekend’s PiRate Ratings Spreads for Teams in Power Conferences

Saturday

Home Team	Visitor	Spread
North Carolina	Davidson	6.2
Notre Dame	Coppin St.	28.8
Louisville	Kentucky	-3.4
Wake Forest	Gardner-Webb	3.3
Syracuse	St. Bonaventure	11.8
Pittsburgh	Colgate	5.4
Miami (Fla.)	Campbell	12.4
Kansas	Eastern Michigan	17.1
Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M–C.C.	18.9
Baylor	New Orleans	14.5
Kansas St.	George Mason	17.0
Ohio St.	High Point	15.3
Penn St.	Md.-Baltimore Co.	6.0
Michigan St.	Northern Illinois	23.3
Illinois	Florida Atlantic	11.9
Rutgers	Maine	10.4
Purdue	Belmont	9.7
Western Kentucky	Wisconsin	-6.6
Maryland	Radford	8.3
Iowa	Bryant	26.6
Utah	Nevada	-10.1
Washington St.	Santa Clara	6.7
Arizona St.	Princeton	14.7
UCLA	Liberty	6.0
Boise St.	Oregon	2.7
California	Seattle	-0.2
Oregon St.	Central Connecticut	16.5
Stanford	Long Beach St.	9.9
Mississippi St.	BYU	6.8
Tennessee	Tennessee Tech	28.0
Vanderbilt	Tennessee St.	15.9
Missouri	Morehead St.	16.5
Ole Miss	Florida Gulf Coast	5.6
Texas A&M	Texas Southern	12.7
Florida	Butler	3.4
Auburn	North Florida	19.6

 

Sunday

Home Team	Visitor	Spread
Michigan	Binghamton	23.1
West Virginia	Lehigh	13.0
Clemson	Lipscomb	9.9
Minnesota	Mount St. Mary’s	15.2
Northwestern	Columbia	13.9
Georgia	U Mass	6.0
USC	UC-Davis	12.3

 

Basketball Ratings Explanation

We are very happy to have your patronage here at the PiRate Ratings, and we know that since the end of last basketball season, we have seen more than one thousand new readers discover us through other sites.  We really appreciate those of you that have sent us comments saying that you posted our site on sports forums.  We need to explain how we calculate our basketball ratings, which are entirely different from how we calculate our football ratings.

First, our basketball ratings are 100% derived from the “Four Factors” and Schedule Strength.  Thus, it takes a long time to input the ratings for each team, since all 353 teams’ statistics must be updated after every game played by every Division 1 team.  We can only do this late Thursday Night in order to publish on Friday.  You will only see us submit games involving Power Conference teams that are playing Division 1 opponents on Saturday or Sunday every week, until March.  We will occasionally add top Mid-Majors like Gonzaga, Buffalo, and Nevada, as long as they are in the top 25 or close to it and look like at-large candidates for the NCAA Tournament if they don’t get the automatic bid.

What are the Four Factors?

Those of you that know us know that our PiRate Captain is a baseball sabermetrician and former Major League analyticist and scout.  He likes to see the Four Factors as something similar to Weighted On-Base Average and WAR in baseball.  Since baseball players’ stats can be calculated to figure out expected wins, he believes that similar basketball data can be calculated to determine the winner in college basketball games.  He goes one step further, trying to find an algorithm that also estimates the pointspread.  This is an ongoing experiment in its fifth year, with the algorithm being tweaked a little each year, much like the wOBA numbers adjust every year in baseball.

Here are the Four Factors for College Basketball as Used by the PiRate Captain.  Because they apply to offense and defense, they are really like Eight Factors.

1.) Effective Field Goal Percentage 

This is a measure that combines two-point and three-point shooting percentages into one.  Since a made three-point basket is the same as 1.5 made two-point baskets, the easy calculation for this stat is. (FG + 0.5*3pt))/FGA

where FG is all field goals made, 3 pt is three-pointers made, and FGA is all field goals attempted.

If your team makes 28 baskets in a game, with 8 of those being 3-pointers and attempts 60 shots in a game, their EFG% is: (28+(0.5*8)/60, which equals 53.3%

 

2.) Turnover % 

This measures the percentage of possessions in which a team turns the ball over without a shot and conversely forces the opponent to turn the ball over without a shot.  The PiRates add a little bit of a twist to how most analytics folks use this one.  We will explain the R+T factor later, but for now consider that a steal is a more important turnover than all others, because many times a steal leads to easy points and possible fouls.

The TOV% is simply Turnovers per 100 possessions.  So that if a team has 70 possessions in a game and turns the ball over 14 times, their TOV% would be (14/70*100) = 20.0%

College Basketball Possessions are now kept for all games, but if you don’t have access to these stats, you can estimate possessions per game by the following formula used only for college and not NBA (slightly different formula for the pros)

FGA + (0.465* FTA) – Off Rebounds + Turnovers

 

3.) Offensive Rebounding Percentage

This is actually both offensive and defensive rebounding margin, since opponents’ offensive rebounding margin is the other teams’ defensive rebounding margin.

You calculate this for both teams by this easy formula: (100* Off. Rebounds) / (Off. Rebounds + other team’s Def. Rebounds)

If your team has 15 offensive rebounds, and the other team has 25 defensive rebounds, your team’s Off. Reb % is (100*15)/(15+25) =37.5%

 

4.) Free Throw Rate

The “experts” disagree on how to calculate this rating.  Some of the most famous people that release advanced metric cannot come to a consensus.  There is a problem with free throws to begin with, because late in games, the trailing team deliberately fouls the leading team, thus giving the most likely winner more chances at going to the foul line than the actual game flow indicates.  Earlier this year, a team we watched on TV had attempted 12 foul shots in the first 34 minutes of the game, and instead of being ahead by 20 points (which they should have been), they only led by 5 with 6 minutes to play.  The underdog team tried to play pressure defense but could not force turnovers, so they began fouling and fouling and fouling.  Meanwhile, they bricked a lot of 3-pointers at their end, and the final outcome was 17 points.  The winning team with just 12 FTA in the first 34 minutes shot 13 more in the final 6 minutes.

This is the type of thing that gives this part of the rating too much weighting, and we tend to lower the importance of this rating for that purpose.  Over the course of NCAA Basketball history, the top foul shooting teams have tended to underperform in the Big Dance, while the National Champions have tended to be a little below normal in free throw percentage but above normal in drawing fouls, again mostly because the other team is forced to foul in the final minutes.

This is the formula we use at the PiRate Ratings: FT Made per 100 possession.

We hope this explains a little about how we calculate our ratings.  Obviously, to explain our algorithm would be like giving you the formula for Coca-Cola or Pepsi.  Plus, it would be too difficult to explain how we back-tested numbers until we came up with the exact formula, which is tweaked a little every season.

Our Plan For 2019

We plan to issue two posts per week until the start of conference tournament play in late February.  Our Monday or Tuesday publication will be our most popular feature of the entire site.  We have a baker’s dozen of accurate bracketologists (some of whom have their own sites) that send us their weekly bracketology.  We call these guys (and one gal) our Bracket Gurus.  This will be the Gurus’ third year doing this for us.  In 2017, they went 68 for 68 correctly picking every team chosen for the field.  In 2018, they went 67 for 68, so in two years, they have picked 135 out of the 136 teams.  The famous bracketologists on the big national sites average about 65 1/2 correct every year, so our Gurus are better than the leading brands.

We will issue a Friday afternoon publication like this one.  The regular menu for Friday is to post the spreads of the power conference team games for the weekend, our PiRate Ratings rankings, and then something we hope you find of interest.  In the past, we have spotlighted low and mid-major teams that might have a chance to create a little havoc in March; featured the up and coming assistant coaches that we believe will become successful head coaches; and written a little about something interesting in basketball history.  Our captain has been watching college basketball since the 1963-64 season, and he can describe the UCLA-Duke championship game like he is watching live today.  It didn’t hurt that he was a left-handed point guard who thought Gail Goodrich was an older version of him until Louie Dampier starred for Kentucky once Goodrich graduated.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rk	Team	PiRate Rating
1	Duke	122.9
2	Gonzaga	118.5
3	Virginia	117.8
4	Michigan St.	116.3
5	Virginia Tech	115.9
6	Texas Tech	115.2
7	Nevada	115.2
8	Tennessee	115.0
9	Auburn	114.7
10	Wisconsin	114.5
11	Iowa St.	113.7
12	Florida St.	113.4
13	Kansas St.	113.2
14	Villanova	113.0
15	Purdue	113.0
16	Oklahoma	112.6
17	Indiana	112.6
18	Cincinnati	112.0
19	TCU	111.9
20	Buffalo	111.6
21	Florida	111.5
22	Butler	111.1
23	Iowa	111.0
24	Kansas	110.8
25	Creighton	110.4
26	Houston	110.3
27	Mississippi St.	110.2
28	Clemson	110.1
29	Syracuse	110.0
30	Arizona St.	109.8
31	Texas	109.6
32	Michigan	109.6
33	UCF	109.5
34	Kentucky	109.4
35	San Francisco	109.1
36	Saint Mary’s	109.1
37	St. John’s	109.0
38	Utah St.	109.0
39	West Virginia	108.7
40	Fresno St.	108.3
41	Notre Dame	108.3
42	Arizona	108.0
43	Seton Hall	107.9
44	Oklahoma St.	107.9
45	North Carolina	107.8
46	Wofford	107.8
47	Nebraska	107.8
48	Northwestern	107.8
49	Washington	107.7
50	Ohio St.	107.6
51	Alabama	107.4
52	Maryland	107.3
53	Vanderbilt	107.3
54	Baylor	107.2
55	Providence	107.1
56	Toledo	107.1
57	Missouri	107.0
58	Temple	107.0
59	Oregon St.	106.8
60	Belmont	106.8
61	UCLA	106.7
62	Northern Colorado	106.7
63	North Carolina St.	106.6
64	Texas A&M	106.6
65	BYU	106.4
66	VCU	106.4
67	Xavier	106.3
68	San Diego St.	106.3
69	Dayton	106.2
70	Colorado	106.2
71	Marshall	106.0
72	Louisiana	106.0
73	Penn	105.9
74	Loyola Marymount	105.8
75	Connecticut	105.7
76	Old Dominion	105.7
77	Marquette	105.6
78	Ball St.	105.6
79	Davidson	105.6
80	USC	105.6
81	San Diego	105.5
82	SMU	105.5
83	South Dakota St.	105.4
84	Yale	105.3
85	New Mexico	105.3
86	Miami FL	105.0
87	Furman	104.9
88	Boston College	104.9
89	UC Irvine	104.9
90	Hofstra	104.8
91	Georgia	104.8
92	Georgia Tech	104.7
93	Rutgers	104.6
94	Penn St.	104.5
95	Illinois	104.5
96	Rhode Island	104.4
97	Western Kentucky	104.4
98	East Tennessee St.	104.3
99	Harvard	104.3
100	New Mexico St.	104.3
101	Lipscomb	104.2
102	Saint Joseph’s	104.1
103	Georgia St.	104.1
104	Saint Louis	104.1
105	Georgetown	104.1
106	DePaul	104.1
107	Miami OH	104.1
108	Akron	104.0
109	Vermont	104.0
110	Charleston	104.0
111	Northeastern	103.8
112	Loyola Chicago	103.7
113	Liberty	103.7
114	Louisville	103.5
115	Wichita St.	103.5
116	Stanford	103.4
117	LSU	103.2
118	South Carolina	103.2
119	Tulsa	103.0
120	Grand Canyon	102.8
121	Texas St.	102.8
122	Middle Tennessee	102.6
123	Minnesota	102.6
124	Oregon	102.6
125	Southern Illinois	102.6
126	Radford	102.5
127	Georgia Southern	102.4
128	Boise St.	102.3
129	Austin Peay	102.2
130	Drake	102.2
131	Pittsburgh	101.9
132	Massachusetts	101.8
133	Utah Valley	101.7
134	Wright St.	101.7
135	Southern Miss	101.7
136	UCSB	101.6
137	Bucknell	101.6
138	Utah	101.6
139	UNLV	101.5
140	Pacific	101.5
141	UMBC	101.5
142	Rider	101.4
143	Northern Kentucky	101.3
144	St. Bonaventure	101.2
145	Mercer	101.1
146	Wake Forest	101.1
147	Indiana St.	101.0
148	Louisiana Monroe	100.9
149	Gardner Webb	100.8
150	Missouri St.	100.7
151	Brown	100.7
152	Pepperdine	100.6
153	Murray St.	100.6
154	Seattle	100.6
155	Winthrop	100.5
156	LIU Brooklyn	100.4
157	Arkansas	100.1
158	Duquesne	100.1
159	The Citadel	100.0
160	Colgate	100.0
161	Richmond	100.0
162	North Texas	100.0
163	Holy Cross	99.9
164	Louisiana Tech	99.9
165	Bradley	99.8
166	Washington St.	99.8
167	Weber St.	99.8
168	Memphis	99.7
169	Troy	99.7
170	Lehigh	99.7
171	George Mason	99.7
172	UNC Wilmington	99.6
173	Stony Brook	99.6
174	South Florida	99.6
175	Central Michigan	99.6
176	Valparaiso	99.6
177	Samford	99.5
178	Green Bay	99.4
179	Illinois St.	99.4
180	Jacksonville St.	99.3
181	Montana	99.3
182	Cal St. Fullerton	99.2
183	UAB	99.1
184	Abilene Christian	99.1
185	Appalachian St.	99.0
186	Coastal Carolina	98.9
187	North Dakota St.	98.7
188	Ohio	98.6
189	Mississippi	98.6
190	Princeton	98.6
191	UNC Greensboro	98.5
192	Little Rock	98.4
193	South Dakota	98.4
194	Fordham	98.3
195	Bowling Green	98.3
196	IUPUI	98.3
197	Stephen F. Austin	98.2
198	Northern Iowa	98.1
199	Evansville	98.1
200	Hawaii	98.1
201	Purdue Fort Wayne	98.1
202	North Florida	98.1
203	Loyola MD	98.1
204	Omaha	98.0
205	American	98.0
206	South Alabama	97.8
207	NJIT	97.7
208	Portland	97.7
209	Eastern Michigan	97.7
210	William & Mary	97.6
211	Iona	97.5
212	Dartmouth	97.5
213	Western Michigan	97.5
214	Boston University	97.5
215	California	97.4
216	La Salle	97.3
217	Northern Arizona	97.2
218	Maine	97.2
219	Navy	97.2
220	Hartford	97.0
221	Illinois Chicago	97.0
222	UTSA	97.0
223	Canisius	97.0
224	Oral Roberts	97.0
225	St. Francis PA	97.0
226	Columbia	96.9
227	Kent St.	96.8
228	FIU	96.8
229	Arkansas Pine Bluff	96.7
230	UNC Asheville	96.6
231	Cal Baptist	96.5
232	Sacramento St.	96.5
233	Montana St.	96.5
234	Northern Illinois	96.5
235	Long Beach St.	96.5
236	Hampton	96.4
237	Texas Southern	96.4
238	Delaware	96.4
239	Kennesaw St.	96.4
240	UC Davis	96.3
241	Santa Clara	96.1
242	Florida Atlantic	96.1
243	Colorado St.	96.1
244	UTEP	96.1
245	Florida Gulf Coast	96.0
246	Lafayette	95.9
247	High Point	95.8
248	Fairfield	95.7
249	New Orleans	95.7
250	Charleston Southern	95.7
251	Cornell	95.7
252	Campbell	95.6
253	Wagner	95.5
254	Cleveland St.	95.5
255	Cal St. Bakersfield	95.5
256	Southern Utah	95.5
257	Norfolk St.	95.5
258	Milwaukee	95.4
259	Fairleigh Dickinson	95.4
260	Western Illinois	95.3
261	UMKC	95.3
262	Quinnipiac	95.1
263	Wyoming	95.0
264	Towson	95.0
265	Presbyterian	95.0
266	Idaho St.	94.9
267	UT Arlington	94.8
268	Tulane	94.7
269	Lamar	94.7
270	Eastern Kentucky	94.7
271	Niagara	94.7
272	Army	94.7
273	Drexel	94.6
274	Sam Houston St.	94.6
275	Monmouth	94.6
276	Mississippi Valley St.	94.5
277	Nicholls St.	94.4
278	James Madison	94.4
279	Prairie View A&M	94.4
280	Marist	94.4
281	Air Force	94.3
282	Eastern Washington	94.3
283	UT Rio Grande Valley	94.2
284	Northwestern St.	94.2
285	East Carolina	94.2
286	St. Francis NY	94.2
287	Siena	94.2
288	Cal St. Northridge	94.1
289	Robert Morris	94.1
290	George Washington	94.1
291	SEMO	94.0
292	Grambling St.	94.0
293	Central Arkansas	94.0
294	Sacred Heart	94.0
295	Albany	93.9
296	Central Connecticut	93.8
297	Houston Baptist	93.8
298	Saint Peter’s	93.8
299	Portland St.	93.8
300	Detroit	93.7
301	Arkansas St.	93.7
302	Longwood	93.6
303	Morehead St.	93.5
304	Denver	93.4
305	McNeese St.	93.1
306	Howard	93.0
307	North Dakota	93.0
308	Tennessee St.	92.9
309	Chattanooga	92.9
310	UC Riverside	92.9
311	Eastern Illinois	92.8
312	North Carolina Central	92.7
313	UT-Martin	92.6
314	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	92.5
315	Oakland	92.5
316	Morgan St.	92.4
317	Cal Poly	92.3
318	Jackson St.	92.2
319	Jacksonville	92.0
320	Idaho	91.9
321	Charlotte	91.9
322	Bethune Cookman	91.9
323	Western Carolina	91.9
324	New Hampshire	91.7
325	Rice	91.7
326	North Carolina A&T	91.7
327	Elon	91.5
328	Youngstown St.	91.4
329	Southeastern Louisiana	91.4
330	North Alabama	91.3
331	UMass Lowell	91.3
332	VMI	90.7
333	Binghamton	90.5
334	Mount St. Mary’s	90.4
335	USC Upstate	90.1
336	Manhattan	90.1
337	San Jose St.	90.0
338	Alabama St.	90.0
339	SIU Edwardsville	89.9
340	Tennessee Tech	89.5
341	Maryland Eastern Shore	89.2
342	Southern	88.8
343	South Carolina St.	88.6
344	Florida A&M	88.5
345	Bryant	87.9
346	Stetson	87.4
347	Incarnate Word	87.2
348	Alcorn St.	86.5
349	Alabama A&M	84.6
350	Savannah St.	83.7
351	Coppin St.	83.5
352	Delaware St.	82.7
353	Chicago St.	82.3

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

#	Team	PiRate Rating	Conf
1	VCU	106.4	A10
2	Dayton	106.2	A10
3	Davidson	105.6	A10
4	Rhode Island	104.4	A10
5	Saint Joseph’s	104.1	A10
6	Saint Louis	104.1	A10
7	Massachusetts	101.8	A10
8	St. Bonaventure	101.2	A10
9	Duquesne	100.1	A10
10	Richmond	100.0	A10
11	George Mason	99.7	A10
12	Fordham	98.3	A10
13	La Salle	97.3	A10
14	George Washington	94.1	A10
1	Duke	122.9	ACC
2	Virginia	117.8	ACC
3	Virginia Tech	115.9	ACC
4	Florida St.	113.4	ACC
5	Clemson	110.1	ACC
6	Syracuse	110.0	ACC
7	Notre Dame	108.3	ACC
8	North Carolina	107.8	ACC
9	North Carolina St.	106.6	ACC
10	Miami FL	105.0	ACC
11	Boston College	104.9	ACC
12	Georgia Tech	104.7	ACC
13	Louisville	103.5	ACC
14	Pittsburgh	101.9	ACC
15	Wake Forest	101.1	ACC
1	Vermont	104.0	AmEst
2	UMBC	101.5	AmEst
3	Stony Brook	99.6	AmEst
4	Maine	97.2	AmEst
5	Hartford	97.0	AmEst
6	Albany	93.9	AmEst
7	New Hampshire	91.7	AmEst
8	UMass Lowell	91.3	AmEst
9	Binghamton	90.5	AmEst
1	Cincinnati	112.0	AAC
2	Houston	110.3	AAC
3	UCF	109.5	AAC
4	Temple	107.0	AAC
5	Connecticut	105.7	AAC
6	SMU	105.5	AAC
7	Wichita St.	103.5	AAC
8	Tulsa	103.0	AAC
9	Memphis	99.7	AAC
10	South Florida	99.6	AAC
11	Tulane	94.7	AAC
12	East Carolina	94.2	AAC
1	Lipscomb	104.2	ASun
2	Liberty	103.7	ASun
3	North Florida	98.1	ASun
4	NJIT	97.7	ASun
5	Kennesaw St.	96.4	ASun
6	Florida Gulf Coast	96.0	ASun
7	Jacksonville	92.0	ASun
8	North Alabama	91.3	ASun
9	Stetson	87.4	ASun
1	Michigan St.	116.3	BTEN
2	Wisconsin	114.5	BTEN
3	Purdue	113.0	BTEN
4	Indiana	112.6	BTEN
5	Iowa	111.0	BTEN
6	Michigan	109.6	BTEN
7	Nebraska	107.8	BTEN
8	Northwestern	107.8	BTEN
9	Ohio St.	107.6	BTEN
10	Maryland	107.3	BTEN
11	Rutgers	104.6	BTEN
12	Penn St.	104.5	BTEN
13	Illinois	104.5	BTEN
14	Minnesota	102.6	BTEN
1	Texas Tech	115.2	B12
2	Iowa St.	113.7	B12
3	Kansas St.	113.2	B12
4	Oklahoma	112.6	B12
5	TCU	111.9	B12
6	Kansas	110.8	B12
7	Texas	109.6	B12
8	West Virginia	108.7	B12
9	Oklahoma St.	107.9	B12
10	Baylor	107.2	B12
1	Villanova	113.0	BEast
2	Butler	111.1	BEast
3	Creighton	110.4	BEast
4	St. John’s	109.0	BEast
5	Seton Hall	107.9	BEast
6	Providence	107.1	BEast
7	Xavier	106.3	BEast
8	Marquette	105.6	BEast
9	Georgetown	104.1	BEast
10	DePaul	104.1	BEast
1	Northern Colorado	106.7	BSky
2	Weber St.	99.8	BSky
3	Montana	99.3	BSky
4	Northern Arizona	97.2	BSky
5	Sacramento St.	96.5	BSky
6	Montana St.	96.5	BSky
7	Southern Utah	95.5	BSky
8	Idaho St.	94.9	BSky
9	Eastern Washington	94.3	BSky
10	Portland St.	93.8	BSky
11	Idaho	91.9	BSky
1	Radford	102.5	BSou
2	Gardner Webb	100.8	BSou
3	Winthrop	100.5	BSou
4	UNC Asheville	96.6	BSou
5	Hampton	96.4	BSou
6	High Point	95.8	BSou
7	Charleston Southern	95.7	BSou
8	Campbell	95.6	BSou
9	Presbyterian	95.0	BSou
10	Longwood	93.6	BSou
11	USC Upstate	90.1	BSou
1	UC Irvine	104.9	BWest
2	UCSB	101.6	BWest
3	Cal St. Fullerton	99.2	BWest
4	Hawaii	98.1	BWest
5	Long Beach St.	96.5	BWest
6	UC Davis	96.3	BWest
7	Cal St. Northridge	94.1	BWest
8	UC Riverside	92.9	BWest
9	Cal Poly	92.3	BWest
1	Hofstra	104.8	CAA
2	Charleston	104.0	CAA
3	Northeastern	103.8	CAA
4	UNC Wilmington	99.6	CAA
5	William & Mary	97.6	CAA
6	Delaware	96.4	CAA
7	Towson	95.0	CAA
8	Drexel	94.6	CAA
9	James Madison	94.4	CAA
10	Elon	91.5	CAA
1	Marshall	106.0	CUSA
2	Old Dominion	105.7	CUSA
3	Western Kentucky	104.4	CUSA
4	Middle Tennessee	102.6	CUSA
5	Southern Miss	101.7	CUSA
6	North Texas	100.0	CUSA
7	Louisiana Tech	99.9	CUSA
8	UAB	99.1	CUSA
9	UTSA	97.0	CUSA
10	FIU	96.8	CUSA
11	Florida Atlantic	96.1	CUSA
12	UTEP	96.1	CUSA
13	Charlotte	91.9	CUSA
14	Rice	91.7	CUSA
1	Wright St.	101.7	Horiz
2	Northern Kentucky	101.3	Horiz
3	Green Bay	99.4	Horiz
4	IUPUI	98.3	Horiz
5	Illinois Chicago	97.0	Horiz
6	Cleveland St.	95.5	Horiz
7	Milwaukee	95.4	Horiz
8	Detroit	93.7	Horiz
9	Oakland	92.5	Horiz
10	Youngstown St.	91.4	Horiz
1	Penn	105.9	Ivy
2	Yale	105.3	Ivy
3	Harvard	104.3	Ivy
4	Brown	100.7	Ivy
5	Princeton	98.6	Ivy
6	Dartmouth	97.5	Ivy
7	Columbia	96.9	Ivy
8	Cornell	95.7	Ivy
1	Rider	101.4	MAAC
2	Iona	97.5	MAAC
3	Canisius	97.0	MAAC
4	Fairfield	95.7	MAAC
5	Quinnipiac	95.1	MAAC
6	Niagara	94.7	MAAC
7	Monmouth	94.6	MAAC
8	Marist	94.4	MAAC
9	Siena	94.2	MAAC
10	Saint Peter’s	93.8	MAAC
11	Manhattan	90.1	MAAC
1	Buffalo	111.6	MAC
2	Toledo	107.1	MAC
3	Ball St.	105.6	MAC
4	Miami OH	104.1	MAC
5	Akron	104.0	MAC
6	Central Michigan	99.6	MAC
7	Ohio	98.6	MAC
8	Bowling Green	98.3	MAC
9	Eastern Michigan	97.7	MAC
10	Western Michigan	97.5	MAC
11	Kent St.	96.8	MAC
12	Northern Illinois	96.5	MAC
1	Norfolk St.	95.5	MEAC
2	Howard	93.0	MEAC
3	North Carolina Central	92.7	MEAC
4	Morgan St.	92.4	MEAC
5	Bethune Cookman	91.9	MEAC
6	North Carolina A&T	91.7	MEAC
7	Maryland Eastern Shore	89.2	MEAC
8	South Carolina St.	88.6	MEAC
9	Florida A&M	88.5	MEAC
10	Savannah St.	83.7	MEAC
11	Coppin St.	83.5	MEAC
12	Delaware St.	82.7	MEAC
1	Loyola Chicago	103.7	MVC
2	Southern Illinois	102.6	MVC
3	Drake	102.2	MVC
4	Indiana St.	101.0	MVC
5	Missouri St.	100.7	MVC
6	Bradley	99.8	MVC
7	Valparaiso	99.6	MVC
8	Illinois St.	99.4	MVC
9	Northern Iowa	98.1	MVC
10	Evansville	98.1	MVC
1	Nevada	115.2	MWC
2	Utah St.	109.0	MWC
3	Fresno St.	108.3	MWC
4	San Diego St.	106.3	MWC
5	New Mexico	105.3	MWC
6	Boise St.	102.3	MWC
7	UNLV	101.5	MWC
8	Colorado St.	96.1	MWC
9	Wyoming	95.0	MWC
10	Air Force	94.3	MWC
11	San Jose St.	90.0	MWC
1	LIU Brooklyn	100.4	NEC
2	St. Francis PA	97.0	NEC
3	Wagner	95.5	NEC
4	Fairleigh Dickinson	95.4	NEC
5	St. Francis NY	94.2	NEC
6	Robert Morris	94.1	NEC
7	Sacred Heart	94.0	NEC
8	Central Connecticut	93.8	NEC
9	Mount St. Mary’s	90.4	NEC
10	Bryant	87.9	NEC
1	Belmont	106.8	OVC
2	Austin Peay	102.2	OVC
3	Murray St.	100.6	OVC
4	Jacksonville St.	99.3	OVC
5	Eastern Kentucky	94.7	OVC
6	SEMO	94.0	OVC
7	Morehead St.	93.5	OVC
8	Tennessee St.	92.9	OVC
9	Eastern Illinois	92.8	OVC
10	UT-Martin	92.6	OVC
11	SIU Edwardsville	89.9	OVC
12	Tennessee Tech	89.5	OVC
1	Arizona St.	109.8	Pac12
2	Arizona	108.0	Pac12
3	Washington	107.7	Pac12
4	Oregon St.	106.8	Pac12
5	UCLA	106.7	Pac12
6	Colorado	106.2	Pac12
7	USC	105.6	Pac12
8	Stanford	103.4	Pac12
9	Oregon	102.6	Pac12
10	Utah	101.6	Pac12
11	Washington St.	99.8	Pac12
12	California	97.4	Pac12
1	Bucknell	101.6	Pat
2	Colgate	100.0	Pat
3	Holy Cross	99.9	Pat
4	Lehigh	99.7	Pat
5	Loyola MD	98.1	Pat
6	American	98.0	Pat
7	Boston University	97.5	Pat
8	Navy	97.2	Pat
9	Lafayette	95.9	Pat
10	Army	94.7	Pat
1	Louisiana	106.0	SBC
2	Georgia St.	104.1	SBC
3	Texas St.	102.8	SBC
4	Georgia Southern	102.4	SBC
5	Louisiana Monroe	100.9	SBC
6	Troy	99.7	SBC
7	Appalachian St.	99.0	SBC
8	Coastal Carolina	98.9	SBC
9	Little Rock	98.4	SBC
10	South Alabama	97.8	SBC
11	UT Arlington	94.8	SBC
12	Arkansas St.	93.7	SBC
1	Wofford	107.8	Socon
2	Furman	104.9	Socon
3	East Tennessee St.	104.3	Socon
4	Mercer	101.1	Socon
5	The Citadel	100.0	Socon
6	Samford	99.5	Socon
7	UNC Greensboro	98.5	Socon
8	Chattanooga	92.9	Socon
9	Western Carolina	91.9	Socon
10	VMI	90.7	Socon
1	Tennessee	115.0	SEC
2	Auburn	114.7	SEC
3	Florida	111.5	SEC
4	Mississippi St.	110.2	SEC
5	Kentucky	109.4	SEC
6	Alabama	107.4	SEC
7	Vanderbilt	107.3	SEC
8	Missouri	107.0	SEC
9	Texas A&M	106.6	SEC
10	Georgia	104.8	SEC
11	LSU	103.2	SEC
12	South Carolina	103.2	SEC
13	Arkansas	100.1	SEC
14	Mississippi	98.6	SEC
1	Abilene Christian	99.1	Southl
2	Stephen F. Austin	98.2	Southl
3	New Orleans	95.7	Southl
4	Lamar	94.7	Southl
5	Sam Houston St.	94.6	Southl
6	Nicholls St.	94.4	Southl
7	Northwestern St.	94.2	Southl
8	Central Arkansas	94.0	Southl
9	Houston Baptist	93.8	Southl
10	McNeese St.	93.1	Southl
11	Texas A&M Corpus Chris	92.5	Southl
12	Southeastern Louisiana	91.4	Southl
13	Incarnate Word	87.2	Southl
1	South Dakota St.	105.4	Sum
2	North Dakota St.	98.7	Sum
3	South Dakota	98.4	Sum
4	Purdue Fort Wayne	98.1	Sum
5	Omaha	98.0	Sum
6	Oral Roberts	97.0	Sum
7	Western Illinois	95.3	Sum
8	Denver	93.4	Sum
9	North Dakota	93.0	Sum
1	Arkansas Pine Bluff	96.7	SWAC
2	Texas Southern	96.4	SWAC
3	Mississippi Valley St.	94.5	SWAC
4	Prairie View A&M	94.4	SWAC
5	Grambling St.	94.0	SWAC
6	Jackson St.	92.2	SWAC
7	Alabama St.	90.0	SWAC
8	Southern	88.8	SWAC
9	Alcorn St.	86.5	SWAC
10	Alabama A&M	84.6	SWAC
1	New Mexico St.	104.3	WAC
2	Grand Canyon	102.8	WAC
3	Utah Valley	101.7	WAC
4	Seattle	100.6	WAC
5	Cal Baptist	96.5	WAC
6	Cal St. Bakersfield	95.5	WAC
7	UMKC	95.3	WAC
8	UT Rio Grande Valley	94.2	WAC
9	Chicago St.	82.3	WAC
1	Gonzaga	118.5	WCC
2	San Francisco	109.1	WCC
3	Saint Mary’s	109.1	WCC
4	BYU	106.4	WCC
5	Loyola Marymount	105.8	WCC
6	San Diego	105.5	WCC
7	Pacific	101.5	WCC
8	Pepperdine	100.6	WCC
9	Portland	97.7	WCC
10	Santa Clara	96.1	WCC

 

 

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PiRate Ratings–College Football Bowls & Playoffs

All times given are Eastern Standard

Saturday	December 15
New Mexico Bowl		2:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah St.	North Texas	11.6	10.2	12.4
Cure Bowl		2:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Louisiana	9.3	7.5	7.3
Las Vegas Bowl		3:30 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	Arizona St.	2.8	3.7	3.4
Camellia Bowl		5:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Southern	Eastern Michigan	-4.7	-4.2	-4.3
New Orleans Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Middle Tennessee	-0.6	-0.7	-0.2
Tuesday	December 18
Boca Raton Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
UAB	Northern Illinois	-0.6	0.7	-0.2
Wednesday	December 19
Frisco Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
San Diego St.	Ohio U	-8.7	-9.8	-9.4
Thursday	December 20
Gasparilla Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Florida	Marshall	-1.9	-2.8	-3.0
Friday	December 21
Bahamas Bowl		12:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Florida Int’l.	9.8	7.9	9.3
Idaho Potato Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	BYU	-11.1	-10.0	-11.2
Saturday	December 22	12:00 PM on ESPN
Birmingham Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Memphis	Wake Forest	-2.3	0.7	0.3
Armed Forces Bowl		3:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Army	-1.3	-1.5	-1.2
Dollar General Bowl		7:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Troy	5.6	5.8	5.1
Hawaii Bowl		10:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Hawaii	Louisiana Tech	-3.3	-3.6	-4.0
Wednesday	December 26
First Responder Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Boston College	-0.3	1.7	0.5
Quick Lane Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Minnesota	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.6	-11.4
Cheez-it Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
TCU	California	0.4	1.2	-0.8
Thursday	December 27	1:30 PM on ESPN
Independence Bowl
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Duke	Temple	6.4	4.1	5.0
Pinstripe Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wisconsin	Miami (Fla.)	-6.5	-7.5	-7.0
Texas Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baylor	Vanderbilt	-0.4	-2.1	-1.1
Friday	December 28
Music City Bowl		1:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Auburn	Purdue	6.8	7.2	8.4
Camping World Bowl		5:15 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	West Virginia	1.0	0.8	1.2
Arizona Bowl		5:30 PM on CBSSN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Nevada	Arkansas St.	3.6	2.2	1.6
Alamo Bowl		9:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa St.	Washington St.	-3.3	-3.9	-3.6
Saturday	December 29
Peach Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida	Michigan	-9.7	-9.9	-9.6
Belk Bowl		12:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
South Carolina	Virginia	5.9	4.8	6.6
Cotton Bowl		4:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Clemson	Notre Dame	12.6	12.9	14.3
Orange Bowl		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	Oklahoma	19.2	18.7	20.8
Monday	December 31
Redbox Bowl		3:00 PM on Fox
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	Michigan St.	-0.8	1.0	0.4
Military Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Cincinnati	1.9	-0.2	1.0
Sun Bowl		2:00 PM on CBS
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Stanford	Pittsburgh	5.3	4.2	6.1
Liberty Bowl		3:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	Oklahoma St.	12.0	12.1	13.1
Holiday Bowl		7:00 PM on FS1
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Utah	Northwestern	6.0	6.1	6.7
Gator Bowl		7:30 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Texas A&M	-2.9	-2.7	-4.0
Tuesday	January 1
Outback Bowl		12:00 PM on ESPN2
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Iowa	Mississippi St.	-7.5	-7.8	-9.3
Citrus Bowl		1:00 PM on ABC
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kentucky	Penn St.	-6.7	-5.6	-6.5
Fiesta Bowl		1:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
LSU	Central Florida	2.9	1.5	3.0
Rose Bowl		5:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	Washington	6.9	7.1	6.6
Sugar Bowl		8:45 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia	Texas	14.9	14.3	17.1
Monday	January 7
National Championship Game		8:00 PM on ESPN
Team 1	Team 2	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bama or Okla.	Clem or N. Dame

For those that need to know–these ratings include the list of star players that are sitting out their bowl so as not to risk injury prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.  For example, Will Grier will not play for West Virginia, and that is enough to switch the Mountaineers from favorite to underdog.  This includes a list through Saturday, December 9.

NOTE:  The PiRate Ratings will commence with college basketball coverage as soon as all the major conference teams have played their tenth game.  Our rating is meaningless until every team has played 10 games.

Once again, we have combined all three of our sub-ratings into one more accurate rating.  We will issue spreads on weekend games through the conference tournaments and then spreads on the conference tournament games.

Additionally, starting in Mid-January, we will see the return of our Bracketology Gurus, who in two years of existence have gotten all 68 teams in the tournament one year and 67 of the 68 teams in the other.  We hand-picked 12 not-so-angry men that love college basketball and devote about the same amount of time in analyzing college basketball data as we analyze Major League Baseball.

 

 

What If… An NCAA Playoffs With No Committee Choices

Four teams are happy.  At least three teams are sad and feel slighted.  Oklahoma and Notre Dame have been invited to the playoffs.  Ohio State and Georgia were jilted.

There could be an argument for Oklahoma and Notre Dame over Ohio State and Georgia.  On the other hand, the folks that know best, those sharps in Nevada, would tell you that Georgia is the third best team in the nation.  Many computers will tell you that on December 29, 2018, Ohio State would be a better team than Oklahoma.

Imagine if specially appointed committees chose other things for the rest of us.  How would you like some insider former politicians explaining to you why Candidate A will be your President instead of Candidate B, even though all the political experts say that Candidate B would be the better Chief Excutive?

What is a special committee of psychologists chose who you will marry based on their criteria.  You may be in love with Michelle, but they may choose Kelly for you because she can balance a checkbook and you cannot?

What if the NFL had to choose just four teams for the playoffs.  This year, there are five really good teams in the Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots, and Texans.  Maybe the Bears and Chargers are also among the four best.  Do you want a 12-4 division winner not making the NFL Playoffs?

Of course you don’t.  And, the fandom of college football doesn’t buy for a minute that the Selection Committee knows what it’s doing.  Let’s see any of them pick games against the spread.  If they are true experts, then they will put up results that make Billy Walters look like an amateur.

The four team playoff did nothing to solve the problems of the two-team BCS National Championship Game it replaced.  In fact, this year, you could make an excellent argument that just putting Alabama against Clemson would be a better option than picking four out of six or seven deserving teams.

Any legitimate FBS Playoffs must allow every FBS team a chance to play their way into said playoffs.  There are 130 FBS teams.  There needs to be no more than 64 top level teams and preferably 32, but let’s not even talk about separating the Power 5 from the Group of 5.  Let’s talk about honest realignment into 7 conferences of 16 teams  and 1 conference of 18 teams.  In an even better world, two FBS teams would drop down to FCS, leaving 128 teams.

Divide each conference into two divisions.  Every team within a division will play each other during the regular season plus three teams in the other division.  In the 18-team conference, there will be just two teams against the other division.  The rhyme and reason to which schools a team in the other division would play would be made by the league with a rotating schedule so that a different three teams would be played every year, possibly using the NFL’s strategy of having the prior first place team in one division playing the prior first place team in the other division and so on down to the prior last place teams playing each other.

At the end of the season, the top team in each division of each conference would then make the 16-team playoff.  In the first round, the division winners of each conference would play to determine the conference champion.  This would leave eight teams for eight playoff spots.

These conference championship games could be played on neutral sites like the current Power Five Conference Championship Games, or on the home field of the team with the better conference record with set tiebreakers to determine the higher seed if there is a tie.

With the number down to eight, the next round could be played on home fields of the higher seeds as determined by criteria that all teams and all fans will know, just like home field is determined in the NFL.  At no time will a committee of so-called experts determine who is in these playoffs and who will be the home team.

After this second round of the playoffs, the final four can then be played like it is today.

This would give every team a chance to play for the national title, just like all 350 Division 1 basketball teams have a chance.  If you think this isn’t fair to Alabama or Clemson to have to play more games to become national champion, then you must absolutely hate March Madness when Sister Jean and her Loyola Ramblers or Butler or Wichita State can make a run to the Final Four.  You must hate the fact that a Gonzaga can advance from a small program into one of the top 10 in the nation.

If the entire FBS has a chance to win the national title, then all programs will have a chance to do what Gonzaga has done in basketball.

Another bonus could be in scheduling.  Instead of an SEC team like Georgia scheduling Austin Peay and Massachusetts, or Alabama scheduling The Citadel, Arkansas State, and Louisiana (the one in Lafayette and not Baton Rouge), the national schedule makers could schedule Alabama and Oklahoma, or Georgia and Michigan.

What about the FBS vs. FCS games?  Why not give each FBS team two preseason games against FCS teams, where the FBS team pays the FCS team a check just like they do now?  With all the extra billions coming into this new paradigm, the FBS teams could keep these FCS programs solvent without putting a 63-3 pasting on them in a regular season game.

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 14

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Friday	November 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Mid-American Conference Championship Game @ Buffalo
Buffalo	Northern Illinois	5.9	6.9	7.0
Pac-12 Conference Championship Game @ Santa Clara, CA
Washington	Utah	5.4	4.5	5.4

 

Saturday	November 24
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Big 12 Conference Championship Game @ Arlington, TX
Oklahoma	Texas	7.2	7.4	7.6
Sun Belt Conference Championship Game @ Appy St.
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	17.8	17.6	18.0
Conference USA Championship Game @ Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee	UAB	2.3	2.0	2.8
American Athletic Conference Championship Game @ Central FL
Central Florida	Memphis	11.3	10.4	10.8
Southeastern Conference Championship Game @ Atlanta
Alabama	Georgia	12.8	13.4	13.3
Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ Boise St.
Boise St.	Fresno St.	2.7	3.0	3.2
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game @ Charlotte, NC
Clemson	Pittsburgh	30.3	28.7	31.4
Big Ten Conference Championship Game @ Indianapolis, IN
Ohio St.	Northwestern	15.5	15.4	16.0

Other Saturday Games

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia Tech	Marshall	12.6	8.6	10.7
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	30.9	29.9	30.5
South Carolina	Akron	30.2	28.2	30.4
California	Stanford	-5.2	-5.0	-5.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Iowa St.	Drake	42.7
Liberty	Norfolk St.	26.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4
2	Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3
3	Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2
4	Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7
5	Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5
6	Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2
7	Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1
8	Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4
9	Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0
10	Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9
11	Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4
12	L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6
13	Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8
14	West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6
15	Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4
16	Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3
17	Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3
18	Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2
19	Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8
20	Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4
21	Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3
22	Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8
23	Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6
24	Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7
25	Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6
26	S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4
27	Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2
28	Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1
29	N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9
30	Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7
31	Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6
32	Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3
33	Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1
34	Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7
35	Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1
37	Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6
38	Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3
39	Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1
40	Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0
41	Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5
42	Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2
43	California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6
44	U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3
45	Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0
46	Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9
47	Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9
48	Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8
49	Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6
50	T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6
51	Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5
52	Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8
53	Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2
54	Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0
55	Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6
56	Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4
57	Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3
58	Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1
59	Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9
60	Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3
61	Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2
62	Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7
63	Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6
64	BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4
65	Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3
66	Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9
67	Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7
68	N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5
69	Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0
70	U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0
71	Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8
72	Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5
73	Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5
74	Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7
75	Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3
76	Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3
77	Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0
78	U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9
79	Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6
80	N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5
81	Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9
82	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8
83	Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6
84	Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5
85	Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9
86	Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8
87	San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7
88	SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7
89	Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1
90	Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4
91	Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3
92	Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4
93	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0
94	South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8
95	Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7
96	Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9
97	Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7
98	Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6
99	Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5
100	Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4
101	Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1
102	UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4
103	Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8
104	W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3
105	Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5
106	Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7
107	U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5
108	Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4
109	Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3
110	East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0
111	Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0
112	New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6
113	Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6
114	Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5
115	Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9
116	Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8
117	San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5
118	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5
119	Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3
120	Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7
121	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
122	Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8
123	Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1
124	U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0
125	South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1
126	Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7
127	N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8
128	Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6
129	Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0
130	U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.0	114.4	114.5	114.3	8-0	11-0
Temple	105.5	105.8	106.1	105.8	7-1	8-4
Cincinnati	102.7	104.1	103.2	103.3	6-2	10-2
South Florida	90.5	91.9	90.1	90.8	3-5	7-5
East Carolina	83.1	83.2	82.7	83.0	1-7	3-8
Connecticut	70.2	70.5	69.3	70.0	0-8	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	104.7	106.0	105.7	105.5	5-3	8-4
Houston	101.1	101.6	101.2	101.3	5-3	8-4
SMU	94.2	93.7	93.2	93.7	4-4	5-7
Tulane	93.0	93.5	92.7	93.1	5-3	6-6
Tulsa	90.0	89.8	90.0	89.9	2-6	3-9
Navy	88.7	90.5	88.8	89.4	2-6	3-9
AAC Averages	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	138.8	136.5	139.5	138.3	8-0	12-0
Syracuse	112.7	111.4	112.2	112.1	6-2	9-3
N. Carolina St.	112.5	111.6	111.7	111.9	5-3	8-3
Boston College	111.6	109.4	111.1	110.7	4-4	7-5
Wake Forest	106.8	105.0	105.0	105.6	3-5	6-6
Florida St.	103.7	102.4	102.8	102.9	3-5	5-7
Louisville	83.9	83.3	82.7	83.3	0-8	2-10
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.8	114.4	115.4	115.2	4-4	7-5
Georgia Tech	113.1	111.9	112.7	112.6	5-3	7-5
Pittsburgh	109.5	108.7	109.0	109.1	6-2	7-5
Duke	109.4	107.4	108.6	108.5	3-5	7-5
Virginia	106.2	106.1	105.4	105.9	4-4	7-5
Virginia Tech	104.3	103.1	103.5	103.6	4-4	5-6
N. Carolina	100.7	100.0	100.7	100.5	1-7	2-9
ACC Averages	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	121.5	120.2	121.3	121.0	8-1	11-1
West Virginia	117.3	116.1	116.5	116.6	6-3	8-3
Texas	114.3	112.8	113.7	113.6	7-2	9-3
Iowa State	113.5	111.8	112.9	112.7	6-3	7-4
Oklahoma St.	109.6	108.0	109.5	109.0	3-6	6-6
Texas Tech	107.0	105.4	105.7	106.0	3-6	5-7
T C U	106.5	105.2	105.1	105.6	4-5	6-6
Kansas St.	104.8	103.6	104.1	104.2	3-6	5-7
Baylor	103.8	102.2	103.4	103.1	4-5	6-6
Kansas	98.4	97.1	97.5	97.7	1-8	3-9
Big 12 Averages	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Ohio St.	126.3	124.5	126.4	125.7	8-1	11-1
Michigan	125.9	124.5	126.3	125.5	8-1	10-2
Penn St.	119.3	117.0	119.0	118.4	6-3	9-3
Michigan St.	112.0	109.9	111.3	111.1	5-4	7-5
Maryland	102.4	100.9	101.5	101.6	3-6	5-7
Indiana	101.4	100.2	101.1	100.9	2-7	5-7
Rutgers	90.2	89.1	89.1	89.5	0-9	1-11
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.2	115.3	116.6	116.4	5-4	8-4
Northwestern	110.7	109.2	110.4	110.1	8-1	8-4
Purdue	110.0	108.3	109.7	109.3	5-4	6-6
Wisconsin	109.3	106.9	108.4	108.2	5-4	7-5
Nebraska	105.4	104.2	104.9	104.8	3-6	4-8
Minnesota	102.8	101.4	102.3	102.2	3-6	6-6
Illinois	89.6	89.0	88.6	89.1	2-7	4-8
Big Ten Averages	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Middle Tennessee	96.2	98.2	97.4	97.3	7-1	8-4
Marshall	94.2	97.0	95.3	95.5	6-2	8-3
Florida Atlantic	94.4	95.6	94.8	94.9	3-5	5-7
Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.0	90.3	91.0	6-2	8-4
W. Kentucky	84.1	87.0	84.7	85.3	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	81.8	84.4	82.7	83.0	4-4	5-7
Old Dominion	79.7	82.9	79.6	80.8	2-6	4-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	95.9	98.2	96.6	96.9	7-1	9-3
N. Texas	95.7	98.2	95.7	96.5	5-3	9-3
Louisiana Tech	89.0	90.9	89.3	89.7	5-3	7-5
Southern Miss.	88.2	91.4	89.0	89.6	4-4	6-5
U T S A	73.6	77.2	74.0	75.0	2-6	3-9
Rice	70.0	72.7	69.0	70.6	1-7	2-11
U T E P	68.8	71.8	68.6	69.7	1-7	1-11
CUSA Averages	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	126.3	123.9	125.4	125.2	x	12-0
Army	103.1	103.8	103.3	103.4	x	9-2
BYU	100.9	101.5	101.9	101.4	x	6-6
Massachusetts	80.9	82.3	81.2	81.5	x	4-8
Liberty	80.4	79.9	80.4	80.3	x	5-6
N. Mexico St.	72.3	73.8	72.3	72.8	x	3-9
Indep. Averages	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	103.3	104.5	104.2	104.0	6-2	8-4
Buffalo	99.6	101.6	100.9	100.7	7-1	10-2
Miami (O)	95.7	97.6	97.8	97.0	6-2	6-6
Akron	85.6	86.5	85.1	85.8	2-6	4-7
Bowling Green	80.5	81.4	80.9	80.9	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.4	100.9	99.6	100.0	5-3	7-5
Northern Illinois	96.2	97.1	96.4	96.6	6-2	7-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.6	95.5	95.8	5-3	7-5
Western Michigan	89.8	91.4	90.7	90.7	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.7	80.5	3-5	4-8
Central Michigan	79.0	81.0	79.0	79.7	0-8	1-11
MAC Averages	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Boise St.	111.5	111.4	112.0	111.6	7-1	10-2
Utah St.	109.7	110.9	110.6	110.4	7-1	10-2
Wyoming	97.2	97.7	97.2	97.3	4-4	6-6
Air Force	95.6	96.2	95.9	95.9	3-5	5-7
Colorado St.	83.5	84.2	83.3	83.7	2-6	3-9
New Mexico	82.6	83.3	81.8	82.6	1-7	3-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	111.8	111.3	111.8	111.7	7-1	10-2
Nevada	94.8	94.9	94.6	94.8	5-3	7-5
San Diego St.	94.6	94.7	94.8	94.7	4-4	7-5
U N L V	83.2	84.1	83.3	83.5	2-6	4-8
Hawaii	82.2	83.8	81.7	82.6	5-3	8-5
San Jose St.	80.4	81.3	79.8	80.5	1-7	1-11
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	122.0	119.9	122.4	121.4	7-2	9-3
Washington St.	115.8	114.7	115.5	115.3	7-2	10-2
Stanford	114.5	112.3	114.5	113.8	5-3	7-4
Oregon	111.2	110.9	111.8	111.3	5-4	8-4
California	108.3	106.3	108.3	107.6	4-4	7-4
Oregon St.	84.4	82.5	83.4	83.4	1-8	2-10
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	116.6	115.3	117.0	116.3	6-3	9-3
Arizona St.	110.2	108.9	109.8	109.6	5-4	7-5
U S C	107.1	105.6	106.2	106.3	4-5	5-7
Arizona	102.1	100.7	102.4	101.7	4-5	5-7
U C L A	100.7	100.1	99.2	100.0	3-6	3-9
Colorado	98.4	98.5	98.5	98.5	2-7	5-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.6	126.3	129.8	128.2	7-1	11-1
Missouri	121.1	119.6	122.1	120.9	4-4	8-4
Florida	115.2	113.6	115.7	114.8	5-3	9-3
S. Carolina	112.9	111.7	112.6	112.4	4-4	6-5
Kentucky	112.7	111.4	112.5	112.2	5-3	9-3
Vanderbilt	105.7	105.7	106.1	105.9	3-5	6-6
Tennessee	98.6	99.0	98.0	98.5	2-6	5-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	141.3	139.7	143.1	141.4	8-0	12-0
Mississippi St.	124.2	122.6	125.4	124.1	4-4	8-4
L S U	117.6	116.7	118.4	117.6	5-3	9-3
Auburn	116.8	115.6	118.1	116.8	3-5	7-5
Texas A&M	114.6	113.6	115.1	114.4	5-3	8-4
Ole Miss	102.5	101.8	102.7	102.3	1-7	5-7
Arkansas	96.7	94.3	95.7	95.6	0-8	2-10
SEC Averages	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.7	100.6	100.3	99.8	7-1	9-2
Troy	91.4	93.0	92.9	92.4	7-1	9-3
Georgia Southern	90.5	92.4	91.2	91.4	6-2	9-3
Coastal Carolina	76.0	78.1	76.3	76.8	2-6	5-7
Georgia St.	75.6	77.2	75.6	76.1	1-7	2-10
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	91.2	92.8	92.9	92.3	5-3	8-4
UL-Monroe	85.9	86.7	86.5	86.4	4-4	6-6
Louisiana	83.3	85.5	84.8	84.5	5-3	7-5
South Alabama	73.4	75.2	73.8	74.1	2-6	3-9
Texas State	72.8	75.2	73.1	73.7	1-7	3-9
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Conference Ratings

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.9	113.7	115.4	114.6
2	B12	109.7	108.2	109.0	109.0
3	ACC	109.2	108.0	108.6	108.6
4	BTEN	108.8	107.2	108.2	108.1
5	PAC12	107.6	106.3	107.4	107.1
6	AAC	94.8	95.4	94.8	95.0
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	94.0	94.2	94.1	94.1
9	MAC	90.3	91.7	90.7	90.9
10	CUSA	85.8	88.5	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top Group of 5

Central Florida will get the New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid with a win over Memphis this week in the CUSA Championship Game.  If Memphis pulls off the upset, then UCF could still sneak in depending on how the loss looks.

Should UCF fall by a considerable margin because Mackenzie Milton is out for the season, then Boise State could move above the Golden Knights should the Broncos defeat Fresno State for the second time.

Should Fresno State beat Boise State, and Memphis beat Central Florida, then there could be some issues with the awarding of Bowl Bids.  Because Army doesn’t play Navy until December 8, and the announcement of the bowl bids is December 3, then Army could be excluded even if they blowout Navy by 50 points.  In this instance, Central Florida would probably still get the bid at 11-1.  Had Army defeated Duke at the beginning of the season, then at 11-1 with a loss only to Oklahoma (a game they came close to winning), then the Bowl Committee would have been in a heap of trouble, having to make alternate announcements pending what Army did versus Navy.

At 10-2, Army may still get a chance to play a Power 5 opponent in a bowl game.  Coach Jeff Monken would be a cinch to be offered a Power 5 job if he was not in the Paul Johnson mode.  Monken’s triple option offense is stronger than Georgia Tech’s this year, and his defense is considerably better.

 

Playoff and Bowl Projections

This week, you will see many of the bowl projection sites beginning to come to agreement on the top bowl games.  No doubt, almost every projection will have Alabama in the Cotton Bowl against either Oklahoma or Ohio State, while Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the Orange Bowl.

We thought about this for a long time Saturday night as Clemson and Alabama continued to dominate.  It looked so much like the Playoffs could be narrowed to two teams.  However, we thought about something.  Georgia is not going to lay over and die for the Crimson Tide to roll over.  The Bulldogs have a bad taste in their mouth from last year, where they could smell the National Championship Trophy in the second half of the title game, before some freshman named Tua came off the bench in the second half and looked like a combination of Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway, and Doug Flutie.

We have noticed the teams that have given Alabama the most trouble through the Nick Saban years.  These teams have physical defenses and offenses with dual-threat quarterbacks that can act as another running back while still passing like stars.  Think about Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, or DeShaun Watson.  Even Chad Kelly had legs and could take off and run.  These are the teams that gave the Crimson Tide the most trouble in the last decade.

In the last few weeks, Alabama’s defense has been exposed by this read and react style of offense.  The Citadel’s triple option basically embarrassed Alabama in the first half.  Auburn’s spread option offense did some damage, but Jarrett Stidham does not have the legs to motor on the keeper like the QBs that have outscored Alabama to victory.

Here’s the thing.  Just like Alabama last year, Georgia has their not-so-secret weapon sitting on the bench waiting to be this year’s Tua Tagovailoa.  Freshman sensation Justin Fields possesses the same skills as Newton, Manziel, and Watson.  He has the potential to lead Georgia to an upset victory and totally throw the FBS Playoffs into disarray.

What if Georgia beat Alabama?  Assuming Clemson easily dismisses Pittsburgh, then Clemson would be number one, Georgia and Notre Dame would be number two and three in either order, and Alabama would fall to number four.  Ohio State and Oklahoma would be left out.  Forget Central Florida.  Even if Bama beats Georgia, Northwestern beats Ohio State, and Texas beats Oklahoma, a Georgia team at 11-2 would get into the playoffs before UCF.

If Georgia were to upset Alabama, then four SEC teams would most likely make the NY6 bowls.  The Bulldogs and Tide would make the playoffs.  Florida would most likely make the Peach Bowl, and LSU would probably edge out Penn State and others for the Sugar Bowl.

There are 81 bowl eligible teams as of today.  Virginia Tech is a win over Marshall this weekend from becoming bowl eligible and making it  82.  Liberty can get to 6-6 with a win over Norfolk State, but they have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility as a transition team to FBS once 78 teams became bowl eligible.

If you are a fan of a Mountain West, Mid-American, or Sun Belt Conference team that is 6-6 today, you better cheer hard for Marshall to knock off Virginia Tech.  There are already three teams too many for the bowls, and if the Hokies win, they will jump over any of the Group of 5 teams hoping to land in a bowl.  Teams like Eastern Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Wyoming, and Louisiana-Monroe are holding out for a miracle.  At most one of these teams will make it to a bowl, and if Virginia Tech wins this weekend, all four are likely to have empty envelopes.  Eastern Michigan could still top Western Michigan, but the Broncos have a larger fan base than the Eagles.

What you see below is our look at the bowls should Georgia beat Alabama.  You can look at all the others on the Internet to see what it would look like if the status quo remains, but we believe you will want to read this alternative look.

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Louisiana Tech
Cure	AAC	SBC	Memphis	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	Arizona St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Southern Miss.	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Florida Int’l.
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Tulane	[Army]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	UAB
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	North Texas
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Wake Forest]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	TCU
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tennessee	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[Western Michigan]	Marshall
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Purdue
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Baylor	[San Diego St.]
Independence	ACC	SEC	Virginia	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Iowa St.	Mississippi St.
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Georgia Tech	Missouri
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	West Virginia
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	North Carolina St.	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Michigan	Florida
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Miami (Fla.)	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Vanderbilt
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Washington St.
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Kentucky
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Notre Dame	Georgia
Orange			Clemson	Alabama
Championship Game			Georgia	Alabama
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Kent St.	22.1	23.1	23.3

 

Wednesday	November 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Ohio U	-3.7	-3.3	-2.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.2	-0.1	0.5

 

Thursday	November 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	11.7	13.2	13.5

 

Friday	November 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	Louisville	22.9	22.1	23.2
Boise St.	Fresno St.	-2.0	-2.3	-2.9

 

Saturday	November 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Temple	1.8	2.5	1.5
Rutgers	Michigan	-40.1	-39.9	-42.5
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-1.4	-0.6	-0.8
Boston College	Clemson	-19.6	-19.4	-20.6
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	13.3	12.4	13.2
Tennessee	Kentucky	-13.0	-11.2	-13.3
Massachusetts	BYU	-16.5	-15.3	-16.5
Virginia	Liberty	26.1	26.9	25.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	1.2	1.6	0.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	15.8	16.1	16.0
Central Florida	Navy	30.0	28.3	30.8
West Virginia	TCU	10.6	11.0	11.6
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	4.3	5.0	5.0
Kansas St.	Kansas	7.3	7.4	8.1
Eastern Michigan	Akron	7.4	7.7	7.8
Indiana	Maryland	-1.4	-1.1	-0.7
Connecticut	SMU	-18.9	-18.4	-19.5
Duke	North Carolina	13.9	12.9	13.7
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	16.1	16.7	16.7
Iowa	Northwestern	9.0	9.0	8.9
Cincinnati	South Florida	12.9	13.2	13.9
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	-6.5	-5.4	-7.2
Tulane	East Carolina	15.3	16.1	15.9
Utah	Oregon	9.7	8.1	9.5
Colorado	Washington St.	-9.1	-7.5	-8.2
Marshall	Charlotte	18.1	18.4	18.4
Old Dominion	North Texas	-15.6	-14.6	-16.5
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	8.0	10.0	8.5
Nevada	Colorado St.	12.8	12.2	13.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	32.1	31.9	33.6
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-17.5	-16.1	-18.8
Georgia	Auburn	15.9	14.6	15.6
Penn St.	Wisconsin	8.8	8.8	9.5
Alabama	Mississippi St.	24.1	24.3	24.7
Air Force	New Mexico	14.2	13.7	14.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	19.1	17.4	20.0
Nebraska	Illinois	12.8	12.0	12.8
Minnesota	Purdue	-14.2	-13.9	-14.7
Memphis	Tulsa	12.6	14.5	13.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.1	2.4	4.3
USC	California	3.9	4.5	3.1
Texas Tech	Texas	1.2	1.5	1.0
Arkansas	LSU	-16.4	-18.2	-18.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	35.3	35.7	38.0
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-20.3	-22.5
Louisiana	Georgia St.	9.0	9.2	10.1
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	20.9	19.3	20.9
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	-7.7	-6.4	-8.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	28.6	27.9	30.9
UTSA	Florida Int’l.	-10.3	-9.9	-10.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	21.8	20.2	21.6
UAB	Southern Miss.	17.2	16.8	17.8
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
Arizona St.	UCLA	16.3	15.5	18.6
San Diego St.	UNLV	22.7	21.7	23.1

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0
4	Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4
5	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
6	Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7
7	Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0
8	Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2
11	Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8
12	Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
14	Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9
15	Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6
17	Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3
18	West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0
19	Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6
20	Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4
21	Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2
22	Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0
23	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
24	Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5
26	Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2
27	Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5
28	Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3
29	Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1
30	Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0
31	N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9
32	Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6
33	Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3
34	Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1
35	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
36	Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0
37	Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8
38	Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5
39	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
40	Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2
41	Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0
42	Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0
43	Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2
44	U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7
45	T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9
46	California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9
47	Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1
49	Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
50	Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6
51	Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4
54	Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0
55	Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8
56	Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2
57	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
58	Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
59	Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8
60	Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4
61	Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2
62	Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1
64	BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6
65	U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6
66	Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5
67	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4
68	Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7
69	N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
71	N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5
72	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
74	Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5
75	Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5
76	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
77	U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0
78	Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9
79	Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5
80	Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4
81	Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1
82	Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9
83	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
84	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4
85	SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0
86	Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6
87	Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6
88	Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5
89	Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3
90	Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6
91	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
92	Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9
93	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
94	Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2
95	Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0
96	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5
98	Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4
99	Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0
100	Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8
101	Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9
102	Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7
103	Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8
104	UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6
105	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
106	Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5
107	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
108	Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1
109	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
110	East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2
111	Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7
112	Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5
113	Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0
114	Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5
115	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
116	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
117	Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2
118	Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1
119	U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0
120	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
121	San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7
122	Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8
123	Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3
124	U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3
125	South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7
126	Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8
127	U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0
128	Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6
129	N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6
130	Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6	5-0	8-0
Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8	4-1	5-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	4-1	8-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-2	7-2
East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-5	2-6
Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9	2-3	5-4
Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8	4-1	7-2
Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4	3-2	4-5
SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0	3-2	4-5
Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0	1-4	2-7
Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9	1-4	2-7
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	6-0	9-0
Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8	4-1	7-2
N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9	2-2	6-2
Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0	4-2	7-2
Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7	2-5	4-5
Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1	1-4	4-5
Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2	0-6	2-7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	3-3	5-4
Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1	2-3	5-4
Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6	2-3	6-3
Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0	3-2	4-4
Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7	4-2	6-3
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1	4-1	5-4
N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6	1-5	1-7
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7	5-1	8-1
West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0	5-1	7-1
Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2	4-2	5-3
Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3	4-2	6-3
Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5	3-3	5-4
Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2	2-4	5-4
T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9	2-4	4-5
Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2	1-5	3-6
Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2	3-3	5-4
Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0	6-0	8-1
Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0	5-1	8-1
Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7	5-2	6-3
Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	3-3	6-3
Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	3-3	5-4
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7	0-6	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9	3-3	6-3
Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2	4-2	5-4
Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1	4-2	6-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-4
Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4	1-5	2-7
Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9	1-5	4-5
Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9	2-4	4-5
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	2-3	4-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	3-2	5-3
Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5	5-1	6-3
Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0	4-1	6-3
Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-5	1-8
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-2	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6	6-0	8-1
N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5	3-2	7-2
Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6	4-1	6-3
Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8	2-3	3-5
U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3	2-3	3-6
U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0	1-4	1-8
Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0	0-6	1-9
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	9-0
Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6	x	7-2
BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6	x	4-5
Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7	x	4-4
Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5	4-1	6-3
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4	5-0	8-1
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4	3-2	3-6
Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5	2-3	4-4
Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5	1-4	2-7
Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9	5-0	6-3
Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6	3-3	5-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1	0-6	1-9
Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0	5-0	8-1
Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0	4-1	7-2
Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5	1-4	3-6
Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-4	3-6
Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4	5-0	8-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	4-1	7-2
Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3	3-2	5-4
Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1	3-3	6-5
U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0	0-5	2-7
San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7	1-4	1-8
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	3-3	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5	5-1	8-1
Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2	3-3	6-3
California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9	2-4	5-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-5	2-7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3	4-3	6-3
Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8	3-3	5-4
U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7	4-3	5-4
Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4	4-3	5-5
Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2	2-4	5-4
U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0	2-4	2-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4	6-1	8-1
Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8	1-4	5-4
Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0	5-2	7-2
Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3	4-3	6-3
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	4-3	5-3
Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	6-0	9-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-3	6-3
L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2	4-2	7-2
Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6	3-3	6-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5	3-3	5-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-4	5-4
Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	4-1	6-2
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	5-0	7-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7	4-1	7-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-3	5-4
Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3	1-4	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8	2-3	5-4
UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6	3-2	5-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-3	4-5
South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7	1-4	2-7
Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8	1-4	3-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Fresno St.
3. Utah St.
4. Cincinnati
5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Houston	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	SMU	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Buffalo]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Boston College	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	UL-Monroe
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Kentucky
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	North Carolina St.	West Virginia
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 1-5, 2018

We have received numerous emails from our regular subscribers over the last fortnight.  So many of you want to become part of the Land Sharps.  We are flattered that you want to contribute here.  The five Land Sharps chosen to be  special guests on the PiRate Ship all have long-time personal relationships with the Captain.

Assuming there is a 2019 season for the PiRate Ratings, and who knows what one year into the future might bring, we hope to commence with a special forum that will allow you the reader to send us your picks on Mondays and Tuesdays, and we will then issue a composite of the most popular picks.  This gives you the rest of this season to test your systems so you can be ready to participate next year.

Our Land Sharps continue to post a winning spread record for the season.  All five of these experts are above the 52.5% mark that returns a profit on investment.  All five are on pace to beat the annual return of the S&P 500, as in just 9 weeks, they have an annualized return between 26% and 70%, with a congregated return of 54.4%!  The best rate of return for the S&P 500 in any of the last 30 years was 33.4% in 1997.  The highest one year gain ever was 53.99%, so our Land Sharps are currently beating the highest ever one year return of the top investment index in the nation!

Let’s hope this praise isn’t a jinx.  This is November.  In November, the Underdogs have their day.  People around the ship call this “No Fave November.”  2018 has been a year of the Dog, because 23 of the 55 underdogs last week not only covered against the spread, they won outright in upsets.  For the season, 31 double-digit Dogs have won outright.  Four of the 31 were underdogs by 3 or more touchdowns.  Better yet, all of our Land Sharps pick only college games, which means Todd Gurley cannot cost you a lot of lost investment when he takes a dive at the five yard line rather than score and allow his team to cover.

Here are this week’s Land Sharp picks

1–Buckeye Michelle   Season: 21-15-1  ROI: 12.2%

North Carolina +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Army -7 vs. Air Force

 

2–Stewed Meat  Season: 29-21-0  ROI: 11.8%

Temple +10.5 vs. Central Florida

South Alabama +16 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisiana-Monroe +7.5 vs. Georgia Southern

UTEP +1 vs. Rice

Florida Int’l. -3 vs. Florida Atlantic

 

3–Dean615  Season: 21-16-1  ROI: 11.6%

Nebraska +19 vs. Ohio St.

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Penn St. +10.5 vs. Michigan

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. Virginia

Texas A&M +4 vs. Auburn

 

4. Friday Dog 13  Season 24-19-1  ROI: 7.0%

South Carolina Pk. vs. Ole Miss

East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Iowa +3 vs. Purdue

Northwestern +9.5 vs. Notre Dame

 

5. Cal Gal Tiffany  Season 24-20-0  ROI: 4.5%

Army -7 vs. Air Force

West Virginia +2 vs. Texas

Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Utah

Oregon -7.5 vs. UCLA

Stanford +10 vs. Washington

California +10.5 vs. Washington St.

Hawaii +18.5 vs. Utah St.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 teams @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Iowa St.	Kansas	4	Iowa St.
Air Force	Army	3	Army
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	3.5	Eastern Michigan
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Wyoming	San Jose St.	3.5	Wyoming
Illinois	Minnesota	0.5	Minnesota
Cincinnati	Navy	3	Cincinnati
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Boston College	Virginia Tech	12	Virginia Tech
Michigan	Penn St.	20.5	Penn St.
Missouri	Florida	4	Florida
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Houston	SMU	3.5	Houston
Northwestern	Notre Dame	1	Notre Dame
Florida Atlantic	Florida Int’l.	7	Florida Int’l.

 

13-Point Teaser	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Northern Illinois	Akron	19.5	Akron
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	0.5	Middle Tennessee
Kentucky	Georgia	4	Georgia
Rice	UTEP	14	UTEP

 

Money Line	Parlays
3 Teams	@ +172
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic
Georgia	Kentucky
Notre Dame	Northwestern
3 Teams	@ +125
Must Win	Must Lose
Florida	Missouri
Minnesota	Illinois
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky
4 Teams	@+180
Must Win	Must Lose
Syracuse	Wake Forest
Army	Air Force
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan
Wyoming	San Jose St.
2 Teams	@+800 [Big Payout on 2 Upsets]
Must Win	Must Lose
Texas A&M	Auburn
Arizona St.	Utah

 

NFL PICKS

10-Point Teasers	3 @ 11-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	13	Oakland
Chicago	Buffalo	Pk	Chicago
Tampa Bay	Carolina	3.5	Carolina
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Cleveland	Kansas City	1.5	Kansas City
Washington	Atlanta	12	Atlanta
Green Bay	New England	4.5	New England

 

13-point Teasers	4 @ 13-10
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Minnesota	Detroit	18	Detroit
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	16	Pittsburgh
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	15	L.A. Chargers
Houston	Denver	9	Denver
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
San Francisco	Oakland	32.5	Over
Minnesota	Detroit	35.5	Over
Cleveland	Kansas City	38.5	Over
Miami	N.Y. Jets	32	Over
Team 1	Team 2	Total	Pick
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	57.5	Under
Washington	Atlanta	33.5	Over
Seattle	L.A. Chargers	35	Over
New England	Green Bay	66.5	Under

Remember as always: All selections you see here on this site are strictly for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Land Sharps actually wager money on their selections, and the Captain and sailors on the PiRate ship do not wager money on their picks.  We recommend you follow our lead.

Coming Friday: Our final analytical look at how the Mid-term elections look based on our unique mathematical formula used when analyzing other political pollsters.

We handicap each of 10 major pollsters, adjusting their polls by their percentage bias from the most recent elections.  We then apply our own biased formula similar to the PiRate Bias Ratings.  By Bias, we are talking about mathematical bias and not political bias.  Our objective is to be accurate and not to be political.  We make no claims to how accurate these polls will be.  So, please vote and pay no attention to our predictions when it comes to making your own personal decisions.  The objective in voting is to vote for the candidates that best represent your views and beliefs, and not to care what our views and beliefs may be or how accurate our statistical analysis may be.  Just don’t vote for the Easter Bunny, the Man in the Moon, or Lassie, three actual write-ins in local elections in this area in the past.  If you don’t like your candidate choices and wish to write-in a candidate (that will not count if they have not qualified as a write-in), at least write in the name of a famous person that you respect for their opinions and beliefs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Thursday	October 18
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona St.	Stanford	-4.2	-2.8	-4.6
Arkansas St.	Georgia St.	10.0	9.2	10.6

 

Friday	October 19
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	Colorado St.	28.2	26.5	28.4
UNLV	Air Force	-9.6	-8.8	-9.4

 

Saturday	October 20
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Temple	Cincinnati	6.7	5.1	7.0
Arkansas	Tulsa	12.3	10.7	10.6
Navy	Houston	-8.6	-7.0	-9.4
Tulane	SMU	5.0	5.8	5.7
Missouri	Memphis	15.5	12.1	15.5
East Carolina	Central Florida	-29.1	-29.6	-30.0
South Florida	Connecticut	27.9	29.6	29.4
Syracuse	North Carolina	13.5	13.0	13.3
Duke	Virginia	12.6	10.1	12.9
Clemson	North Carolina St.	22.4	20.3	23.0
Florida St.	Wake Forest	6.7	8.3	8.6
TCU	Oklahoma	-4.6	-4.3	-6.3
Texas Tech	Kansas	13.3	13.4	13.9
Michigan St.	Michigan	-6.2	-7.0	-7.1
Wisconsin	Illinois	26.9	24.6	27.3
Iowa	Maryland	13.7	13.1	14.2
Rutgers	Northwestern	-23.4	-22.7	-25.4
Indiana	Penn St.	-20.4	-18.7	-21.2
Nebraska	Minnesota	-2.8	-3.4	-4.5
Purdue	Ohio St.	-14.2	-13.6	-14.7
Marshall	Florida Atlantic	-0.6	1.4	-0.2
Middle Tenneesee	Charlotte	17.3	16.3	18.3
Louisiana Tech	UTEP	25.8	25.2	27.9
Southern Miss.	UTSA	9.8	8.5	9.7
Florida Int’l.	Rice	26.4	27.8	29.1
UAB	North Texas	-2.2	-2.2	-2.6
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	1.1	0.8	2.6
Army	Miami (O)	15.1	14.2	13.0
Massachusetts	Coastal Carolina	10.2	9.6	10.7
New Mexico St.	Georgia Southern	-13.3	-13.1	-13.7
Toledo	Buffalo	2.5	1.4	1.1
Ohio U	Bowling Green	14.6	15.5	14.8
Ball St.	Eastern Michigan	-6.8	-5.7	-7.4
Central Michigan	Western Michigan	-4.8	-4.0	-5.4
Kent St.	Akron	-10.3	-10.6	-11.0
Wyoming	Utah St.	-10.6	-12.1	-12.7
New Mexico	Fresno St.	-19.5	-16.9	-19.7
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	30.5	30.0	33.1
Hawaii	Nevada	-5.9	-3.8	-6.7
Washington	Colorado	22.3	19.3	22.8
Oregon St.	California	-13.9	-13.8	-15.1
Washington St.	Oregon	-1.1	-2.0	-2.7
Utah	USC	9.2	8.9	10.6
UCLA	Arizona	1.9	3.5	-0.6
Ole Miss	Auburn	-7.9	-7.0	-9.2
Tennessee	Alabama	-38.1	-35.6	-40.2
LSU	Mississippi St.	1.6	4.0	2.2
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	17.3	15.9	17.3
Appalachian St.	Louisiana	22.0	21.7	22.7
Louisina-Monroe	Texas St.	13.6	10.9	14.2

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Liberty	Idaho St.	4.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.2	138.2	141.8	140.1
2	Clemson	133.9	131.3	134.4	133.2
3	Georgia	127.8	124.7	128.6	127.0
4	Ohio St.	127.5	125.5	127.8	126.9
5	Michigan	125.5	124.2	125.9	125.2
6	Notre Dame	124.5	121.7	123.5	123.2
7	Washington	123.4	121.4	124.7	123.1
8	Penn St.	122.3	119.6	122.6	121.5
9	Oklahoma	119.7	118.3	120.0	119.3
10	Mississippi St.	119.9	117.4	120.6	119.3
11	L S U	118.6	118.4	119.8	118.9
12	Michigan St.	117.7	115.6	117.2	116.9
13	Utah	116.0	114.3	116.9	115.8
14	Miami	115.9	114.5	115.4	115.3
15	Iowa	116.0	114.0	115.7	115.2
16	Auburn	114.7	113.4	116.3	114.8
17	Wisconsin	115.8	113.1	115.2	114.7
18	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
19	Duke	115.3	113.2	114.9	114.5
20	Kentucky	114.9	113.8	114.8	114.5
21	Missouri	114.7	113.0	115.7	114.4
22	Florida	114.6	113.0	115.5	114.3
23	N. Carolina St.	114.5	113.9	114.4	114.3
24	Stanford	115.1	112.4	115.1	114.2
25	Oregon	113.7	113.6	114.6	114.0
26	Texas A&M	114.2	112.9	114.4	113.8
27	Boston College	114.4	111.8	113.8	113.4
28	Texas	113.5	112.1	113.0	112.8
29	Iowa State	112.8	111.2	112.6	112.2
30	Virginia Tech	112.2	111.2	111.8	111.7
31	West Virginia	112.4	111.4	111.5	111.7
32	S. Carolina	112.2	111.0	111.8	111.7
33	T C U	112.1	111.0	110.7	111.2
34	Georgia Tech	111.2	110.1	110.8	110.7
35	Fresno St.	110.9	109.9	111.2	110.7
36	Northwestern	110.7	109.0	110.6	110.1
37	Purdue	110.3	108.9	110.1	109.8
38	Boise St.	109.7	109.0	109.8	109.5
39	U S C	109.8	108.4	109.3	109.2
40	Syracuse	109.9	108.5	109.1	109.2
41	Washington St.	109.6	108.6	108.9	109.0
42	Utah St.	107.8	109.2	109.3	108.8
43	Texas Tech	109.5	108.2	108.4	108.7
44	Oklahoma St.	109.4	107.5	109.1	108.6
45	Arizona St.	107.9	106.6	107.5	107.3
46	Florida St.	107.4	106.8	107.1	107.1
47	Army	104.9	105.6	105.1	105.2
48	Virginia	105.2	105.7	104.5	105.1
49	Colorado	104.0	105.1	104.9	104.7
50	Maryland	105.3	104.0	104.5	104.6
51	Ole Miss	103.8	103.4	104.1	103.7
52	Kansas St.	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
53	Houston	103.0	103.7	103.4	103.4
54	Minnesota	103.7	102.8	103.6	103.4
55	Memphis	102.2	103.9	103.2	103.1
56	California	103.8	101.3	103.2	102.8
57	San Diego St.	102.4	102.6	103.2	102.7
58	Temple	102.4	102.4	103.1	102.6
59	Baylor	103.0	101.2	102.7	102.3
60	Wake Forest	103.8	101.4	101.5	102.2
61	Appalachian St.	100.8	102.6	102.5	101.9
62	N. Texas	99.9	102.4	100.9	101.0
63	Pittsburgh	101.4	100.7	100.8	101.0
64	Vanderbilt	100.5	100.8	100.5	100.6
65	BYU	100.1	100.6	100.7	100.4
66	Arizona	100.6	98.8	100.7	100.0
67	Arkansas	100.3	97.8	99.2	99.1
68	Tennessee	99.2	99.6	98.5	99.1
69	South Florida	98.4	100.4	98.5	99.1
70	N. Carolina	99.4	98.4	98.8	98.9
71	Cincinnati	98.2	99.8	98.6	98.8
72	Buffalo	97.7	99.8	98.8	98.8
73	U C L A	99.5	99.3	97.1	98.6
74	Indiana	98.9	97.9	98.4	98.4
75	Kansas	99.2	97.8	97.5	98.2
76	Florida Atlantic	97.2	97.9	97.8	97.6
77	Toledo	97.1	98.2	96.9	97.4
78	Nebraska	97.9	96.4	96.1	96.8
79	Louisiana Tech	94.6	97.1	96.1	95.9
80	U A B	94.6	97.1	95.3	95.7
81	Air Force	95.3	95.9	95.4	95.5
82	Northern Illinois	94.9	95.6	94.7	95.1
83	Louisville	95.2	95.2	94.4	94.9
84	Marshall	93.6	96.3	94.5	94.8
85	Tulane	94.4	94.8	94.2	94.5
86	Miami (O)	92.8	94.5	95.1	94.1
87	Eastern Michigan	93.5	94.8	94.0	94.1
88	Wyoming	94.3	94.1	93.6	94.0
89	Ohio U	92.7	93.9	93.2	93.3
90	Middle Tennessee	91.8	93.2	93.0	92.7
91	Western Michigan	91.8	93.4	92.7	92.7
92	Navy	91.4	93.6	91.0	92.0
93	Nevada	92.1	91.9	92.0	92.0
94	Troy	90.6	91.9	91.9	91.5
95	SMU	92.0	91.4	91.0	91.5
96	Akron	90.8	92.1	91.2	91.4
97	Florida Int’l.	89.6	93.6	90.4	91.2
98	Illinois	91.4	91.0	90.4	90.9
99	Tulsa	91.0	90.2	91.5	90.9
100	Georgia Southern	88.9	90.6	89.5	89.7
101	New Mexico	88.4	90.0	88.5	89.0
102	Arkansas St.	86.7	88.0	88.1	87.6
103	Central Michigan	85.0	87.4	85.3	85.9
104	Southern Miss.	84.4	87.4	85.0	85.6
105	Oregon St.	86.9	84.5	85.1	85.5
106	Ball St.	84.2	86.6	84.1	85.0
107	Colorado St.	84.5	85.4	84.4	84.8
108	Massachusetts	83.4	85.3	84.3	84.3
109	U N L V	83.2	84.6	83.5	83.8
110	Rutgers	84.8	83.7	82.8	83.8
111	Old Dominion	82.0	85.4	81.5	83.0
112	Louisiana	81.7	83.9	82.8	82.8
113	East Carolina	82.9	82.6	82.3	82.6
114	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.5	82.8	82.6
115	Hawaii	82.2	84.1	81.3	82.5
116	W. Kentucky	80.7	83.7	81.6	82.0
117	Liberty	81.3	80.5	81.5	81.1
118	Bowling Green	80.6	80.9	80.8	80.8
119	Georgia St.	79.2	81.2	80.0	80.1
120	U T S A	77.2	81.4	77.8	78.8
121	Kent St.	78.0	79.1	77.7	78.3
122	Charlotte	77.0	79.4	77.2	77.9
123	South Alabama	76.4	78.3	77.0	77.2
124	Coastal Carolina	75.7	78.2	76.1	76.7
125	San Jose St.	74.9	75.6	73.1	74.5
126	N. Mexico St.	73.1	75.0	73.3	73.8
127	Connecticut	73.5	73.8	72.1	73.1
128	Texas State	71.3	74.2	71.1	72.2
129	U T E P	71.3	74.4	70.7	72.1
130	Rice	66.2	68.7	64.3	66.4

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	3-0	6-0
Temple	102.4	102.4	103.1	102.6	3-0	4-3
South Florida	98.4	100.4	98.5	99.1	2-0	6-0
Cincinnati	98.2	99.8	98.6	98.8	2-0	6-0
East Carolina	82.9	82.6	82.3	82.6	0-3	2-4
Connecticut	73.5	73.8	72.1	73.1	0-3	1-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	103.0	103.7	103.4	103.4	2-0	5-1
Memphis	102.2	103.9	103.2	103.1	1-3	4-3
Tulane	94.4	94.8	94.2	94.5	1-1	2-4
Navy	91.4	93.6	91.0	92.0	1-2	2-4
SMU	92.0	91.4	91.0	91.5	1-1	2-4
Tulsa	91.0	90.2	91.5	90.9	0-3	1-5
AAC Averages	95.3	95.9	95.3	95.5
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	133.9	131.3	134.4	133.2	3-0	6-0
N. Carolina St.	114.5	113.9	114.4	114.3	1-0	5-0
Boston College	114.4	111.8	113.8	113.4	2-1	5-2
Syracuse	109.9	108.5	109.1	109.2	1-2	4-2
Florida St.	107.4	106.8	107.1	107.1	1-3	3-3
Wake Forest	103.8	101.4	101.5	102.2	0-2	3-3
Louisville	95.2	95.2	94.4	94.9	0-4	2-5
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Miami	115.9	114.5	115.4	115.3	2-1	5-2
Duke	115.3	113.2	114.9	114.5	1-1	5-1
Virginia Tech	112.2	111.2	111.8	111.7	3-0	4-2
Georgia Tech	111.2	110.1	110.8	110.7	1-3	3-4
Virginia