The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 17, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 20-23, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Appalachian St.Coastal Carolina-8.0-6.7-6.7
SMUTulane9.811.89.9
Arkansas St.Louisiana-23.5-21.5-24.5
CharlotteFlorida Atlantic-7.3-7.5-6.3
UNLVSan Jose St.-6.3-7.2-5.1
ConnecticutMiddle Tennessee-12.7-11.9-15.9
Central FloridaMemphis8.66.98.9
Utah St.Colorado St.-1.6-1.0-2.2
ArizonaWashington-15.5-17.4-17.5
ToledoWestern Michigan3.12.02.4
Florida St.Massachusetts32.233.035.6
Georgia St.Texas St.12.213.313.4
IndianaOhio St.-15.9-16.0-17.0
AkronBuffalo-12.8-13.4-14.3
Penn St.Illinois25.426.127.6
VirginiaGeorgia Tech9.610.910.1
LouisvilleBoston College2.62.03.7
Virginia TechSyracuse9.88.68.7
PittsburghClemson-4.2-3.5-5.5
MinnesotaMaryland4.56.88.6
MichiganNorthwestern18.519.219.8
Central MichiganNorthern Illinois9.69.910.3
Ohio UKent St.-2.2-2.6-0.8
NavyCincinnati-33.3-33.5-35.5
Miami (Fla.)North Carolina St.1.91.42.1
ArmyWake Forest-5.8-5.0-6.1
South FloridaTemple10.88.89.9
Bowling GreenEastern Michigan-16.5-14.5-15.1
HoustonEast Carolina9.89.49.1
KansasOklahoma-41.4-41.8-45.2
Ball St.Miami (O)1.33.32.4
WyomingNew Mexico18.719.220.9
CaliforniaColorado-2.02.31.5
Oregon St.Utah-1.5-1.6-1.3
Washington St.BYU-3.3-1.5-2.8
UCLAOregon1.71.30.9
Texas TechKansas St.-1.2-0.7-1.2
TCUWest Virginia5.35.87.4
Iowa St.Oklahoma St.11.19.911.6
UABRice22.022.422.7
AlabamaTennessee25.425.026.0
Texas A&MSouth Carolina21.522.623.0
VanderbiltMississippi St.-22.2-22.8-22.9
PurdueWisconsin1.81.62.4
Ole MissLSU10.08.89.1
Louisiana-MonroeSouth Alabama-13.2-12.9-13.9
North TexasLiberty-20.8-21.7-22.4
Louisiana TechUTSA-8.4-8.5-9.8
Florida Int’l.Western Kentucky-8.5-9.5-8.8
Air ForceSan Diego St.2.23.24.1
Notre DameUSC3.64.34.1
Fresno St.Nevada3.33.34.9
HawaiiNew Mexico St.26.125.127.7

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBSFCSPiRate
ArkansasArkansas-Pine Bluff39.5

Teams Not Playing This Week

Arizona St.
Auburn
Baylor
Boise St.
Duke
Florida
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Iowa
Kentucky
Marshall
Michigan St.
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
Old Dominion
Rutgers
Southern Miss.
Stanford
Texas
Troy
Tulsa
UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia134.5
2Alabama131.4
3Ohio St.126.6
4Oklahoma124.7
5Cincinnati123.2
6Iowa St.121.0
7Texas A&M117.4
8Penn St.117.2
9Auburn117.1
10Ole Miss116.9
11Florida116.8
12Clemson116.2
13Iowa115.9
14Texas115.8
15Utah114.7
16Michigan114.4
17Arizona St.113.7
18Notre Dame113.7
19Oklahoma St.113.1
20Arkansas112.8
21U S C112.7
22Kentucky112.6
23T C U112.5
24Coastal Carolina112.5
25Oregon112.0
26Baylor111.8
27NC State111.0
28L S U110.6
29U C L A110.3
30Oregon St.110.2
31Michigan St.110.0
32North Carolina110.0
33Miami (Fla.)109.8
34Nebraska109.7
35West Virginia109.3
36Wake Forest109.3
37Wisconsin109.3
38Tennessee109.0
39Louisiana108.9
40Pittsburgh108.7
41Washington108.3
42Purdue108.2
43BYU107.5
44Indiana107.3
45Virginia107.3
46Kansas St.107.1
47Minnesota106.9
48Mississippi St.106.4
49Stanford104.6
50Houston104.5
51Virginia Tech104.3
52Liberty103.4
53Boise St.103.4
54Boston College103.3
55Maryland103.3
56Louisville103.1
57Texas Tech103.1
58Appalachian St.102.8
59SMU102.5
60Fresno St.102.4
61Washington St.101.9
62Air Force101.8
63Florida St.101.8
64San Diego St.101.7
65Colorado101.6
66Nevada101.5
67Army100.7
68Georgia Tech100.1
69Missouri100.1
70U T S A99.3
71California99.2
72U A B99.1
73UCF98.9
74Northwestern98.3
75Syracuse98.2
76East Carolina98.1
77South Carolina98.0
78Miami (Ohio)97.1
79Ball St.97.0
80Western Michigan96.2
81Rutgers95.9
82Toledo95.7
83Central Michigan95.6
84Wyoming95.5
85Tulsa95.3
86Colorado St.95.1
87Tulane95.0
88San Jose St.93.9
89Marshall93.9
90Georgia St.93.8
91Memphis93.8
92Illinois93.8
93Hawaii93.6
94South Alabama93.3
95Eastern Michigan93.0
96Buffalo93.0
97Florida Atlantic92.8
98Troy91.5
99Kent St.90.8
100Utah St.90.5
101Western Kentucky89.3
102USF88.5
103Arizona88.5
104Northern Illinois88.2
105Louisiana Tech87.4
106Duke87.2
107Ohio86.9
108Middle Tennessee86.7
109Navy86.1
110Georgia Southern86.0
111U N L V85.2
112Arkansas St.83.7
113Texas St.83.4
114U T E P83.3
115Charlotte83.3
116Vanderbilt81.7
117Temple81.7
118Rice79.3
119North Texas79.2
120Kansas78.9
121New Mexico78.9
122Southern Miss.78.0
123Florida Int’l.77.9
124UL-Monroe77.5
125Akron77.0
126Bowling Green75.2
127Old Dominion75.0
128New Mexico St.71.2
129UMass71.2
130Connecticut70.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati122.6122.3124.9123.2
Houston104.7103.7105.2104.5
SMU102.1102.6102.8102.5
UCF98.997.7100.398.9
East Carolina97.997.399.098.1
Tulsa95.495.495.295.3
Tulane95.393.895.995.0
Memphis93.393.894.493.8
USF88.888.188.788.5
Navy86.385.886.486.1
Temple81.082.381.881.7

AAC Averages96.996.697.797.1


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson115.6115.6117.2116.2
NC State111.2110.8111.1111.0
Wake Forest109.5108.8109.7109.3
Boston College103.1103.4103.4103.3
Louisville102.7102.4104.1103.1
Florida St.101.6101.8102.0101.8
Syracuse98.298.498.298.2

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina109.4109.5111.0110.0
Miami (Fla.)110.2109.2110.2109.8
Pittsburgh108.4109.2108.7108.7
Virginia106.7108.0107.1107.3
Virginia Tech105.0103.9103.9104.3
Georgia Tech100.1100.2100.0100.1
Duke87.288.186.387.2

ACC Averages104.9104.9105.2105.0


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma125.7123.8124.6124.7
Iowa St.121.5120.1121.4121.0
Texas116.7115.0115.7115.8
Oklahoma St.113.4113.2112.8113.1
T C U113.2111.9112.5112.5
Baylor112.3111.8111.3111.8
West Virginia110.9109.1108.1109.3
Kansas St.107.5107.2106.6107.1
Texas Tech103.3103.5102.4103.1
Kansas81.379.076.478.9

Big 12 Averages110.6109.5109.2109.7


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.126.1126.0127.7126.6
Penn St.116.0116.8118.7117.2
Michigan113.7114.7114.9114.4
Michigan St.110.0110.0110.1110.0
Indiana107.2107.0107.7107.3
Maryland104.4103.0102.3103.3
Rutgers95.196.995.595.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa115.6115.2116.9115.9
Nebraska109.3109.7110.0109.7
Wisconsin108.9108.8110.2109.3
Purdue107.7107.4109.6108.2
Minnesota105.9106.8108.0106.9
Northwestern98.298.598.198.3
Illinois93.693.794.193.8

Big Ten Averages108.0108.2108.8108.3


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall93.893.794.393.9
Florida Atlantic92.193.493.092.8
Western Kentucky88.389.989.889.3
Middle Tennessee86.486.387.486.7
Charlotte82.383.484.183.3
Florida Int’l.77.377.978.577.9
Old Dominion74.675.375.275.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A99.099.699.499.3
U A B98.999.299.399.1
Louisiana Tech87.788.186.587.4
U T E P83.284.282.483.3
Rice79.479.379.279.3
North Texas79.579.378.979.2
Southern Miss.77.778.477.778.0

CUSA Averages85.786.386.186.0


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame113.0113.6114.4113.7
BYU107.7107.0107.7107.5
Liberty102.8103.5103.8103.4
Army100.7100.8100.6100.7
New Mexico St.71.672.369.871.2
UMass72.471.869.571.2
Connecticut70.771.468.570.2

Indep. Averages91.391.590.691.1


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)98.896.895.897.1
Buffalo93.792.892.693.0
Kent St.90.691.889.990.8
Ohio86.387.387.186.9
Akron78.476.975.977.0
Bowling Green75.576.074.075.2

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ball St.97.697.695.797.0
Western Michigan96.296.895.696.2
Toledo96.495.895.095.7
Central Michigan96.695.395.095.6
Eastern Michigan94.692.991.693.0
Northern Illinois89.487.987.288.2

MAC Averages91.290.789.690.5


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.2103.0103.8103.4
Air Force101.3101.7102.5101.8
Wyoming95.195.595.995.5
Colorado St.94.895.095.495.1
Utah St.90.291.090.290.5
New Mexico79.379.477.978.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Fresno St.101.2102.6103.4102.4
San Diego St.102.1101.5101.4101.7
Nevada100.9102.3101.4101.5
San Jose St.94.494.492.993.9
Hawaii93.793.493.593.6
U N L V85.684.885.385.2

MWC Averages95.195.495.395.3


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.1112.1112.9112.0
Oregon St.110.1110.1110.4110.2
Washington107.4108.7108.8108.3
Stanford104.3105.1104.3104.6
Washington St.101.4102.5101.9101.9
California97.1100.999.899.2

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Utah114.6114.7114.7114.7
Arizona St.113.3113.9114.0113.7
U S C112.4112.3113.3112.7
U C L A109.8110.4110.7110.3
Colorado102.0101.6101.2101.6
Arizona88.988.388.288.5

Pac-12 Averages106.0106.7106.7106.5


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia134.0134.2135.3134.5
Florida116.2117.5116.8116.8
Kentucky111.7113.4112.8112.6
Tennessee109.0108.7109.2109.0
Missouri100.2100.599.5100.1
South Carolina98.598.197.598.0
Vanderbilt82.381.781.281.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.4130.7132.2131.4
Texas A&M117.0117.7117.4117.4
Auburn117.2116.5117.5117.1
Ole Miss116.9116.7117.0116.9
Arkansas113.0112.9112.5112.8
L S U109.9110.9110.9110.6
Mississippi St.106.5106.5106.1106.4

SEC Averages111.7111.9111.9111.8


Sunbelt Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina113.0111.2113.1112.5
Appalachian St.102.5102.0104.0102.8
Georgia St.94.293.593.893.8
Troy91.491.691.591.5
Georgia Southern86.186.485.786.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana109.4107.8109.5108.9
South Alabama93.693.592.993.3
Arkansas St.83.984.383.083.7
Texas St.84.582.783.083.4
UL-Monroe77.978.176.577.5

Sun Averages93.693.193.393.4

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.8
2Big 12109.7
3Big Ten108.3
4Pac-12106.5
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic97.1
7Mountain West95.3
8Sun Belt93.4
9Independents91.1
10Mid-American90.5
11Conference USA86.0

This Week’s Bowl Projections

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSANorthern Illinois
CureMemphisAppalachian St.
BocaFlorida AtlanticLiberty
New MexicoUTEPAir Force
IndependenceBYUUAB
Lending TreeCentral MichiganCoastal Carolina
L. A.San Diego St.Washington St.
New OrleansCharlotteLouisiana
Myrtle BeachTulsaTroy
Famous Idaho PotatoToledoUtah St.
FriscoWestern KentuckyMiami (O)
Armed ForcesArmyMarshall
GasparillaBoston CollegeMiddle Tennessee
HawaiiCentral FloridaNevada
CamelliaEastern MichiganUL-Monroe
Quick LaneBall St.Northwestern
MilitaryMarylandEast Carolina
BirminghamKent St.Washington
First ResponderSMUWyoming
LibertyTCUArkansas
HolidayVirginia TechOregon St.
Guaranteed RatePurdueTexas Tech
FenwayHoustonClemson
PinstripeVirginiaMinnesota
Cheez-ItNotre DameBaylor
AlamoIowa St.UCLA
Duke’s MayoNorth Carolina St.Tennessee
Music CityWisconsinKansas St.
Las VegasPenn St.Oregon
Tax Slayer GatorWake ForestLSU
Tony The Tiger SunNorth CarolinaUSC
ArizonaWestern MichiganFresno St.
CitrusMichiganFlorida
OutbackIowaAuburn
TexasTexasTexas A&M
PeachOle MissPittsburgh
FiestaArizona St.Kentucky
RoseMichigan St.Utah
SugarAlabamaOklahoma St.
CottonOklahomaCincinnati
OrangeGeorgiaOhio St.
ChampionshipGeorgiaOklahoma

October 3, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 7-9, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:32 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
TulaneHouston-4.6-4.9-4.0
Arkansas St.Coastal Carolina-26.7-23.6-27.4
CincinnatiTemple43.041.043.9
Florida Int’l.Charlotte-0.3-0.7-0.5
Arizona St.Stanford12.612.413.3
North CarolinaFlorida St.17.818.220.2
RutgersMichigan St.-8.0-5.5-6.6
MassachusettsConnecticut0.4-1.4-0.9
SyracuseWake Forest-11.1-10.2-11.9
Central FloridaEast Carolina5.65.06.1
Ohio St.Maryland17.719.021.6
Bowling GreenAkron3.35.75.0
ToledoNorthern Illinois11.312.712.5
Kent St.Buffalo-0.32.2-0.2
DukeGeorgia Tech-6.7-5.9-7.7
Western MichiganBall St.4.55.36.4
LibertyMiddle Tennessee22.823.923.1
LouisvilleVirginia1.60.03.0
Air ForceWyoming5.14.84.9
BYUBoise St.9.89.69.8
MarshallOld Dominion22.621.622.5
Colorado St.San Jose St.-3.0-2.9-0.5
USCUtah7.47.59.2
Washington St.Oregon St.-9.3-8.2-9.6
TennesseeSouth Carolina9.08.79.5
NavySMU-12.2-13.6-13.2
Texas TechTCU-5.8-4.0-5.7
AuburnGeorgia-14.6-15.5-16.1
KentuckyLSU-0.20.8-0.8
BaylorWest Virginia-1.00.20.3
MissouriNorth Texas25.025.725.3
Texas St.South Alabama-6.0-8.2-7.3
UABFlorida Atlantic5.73.84.5
FloridaVanderbilt38.640.840.5
TulsaMemphis5.04.23.4
Louisiana-MonroeGeorgia St.-11.9-11.1-13.5
IllinoisWisconsin-10.3-10.0-11.3
Eastern MichiganMiami (O)-2.8-2.5-3.3
Texas (N)Oklahoma-4.9-4.1-3.7
NebraskaMichigan0.0-0.6-0.5
TroyGeorgia Southern5.35.36.1
Ohio UCentral Michigan-9.3-6.8-7.3
Texas A&MAlabama-14.3-12.8-15.3
Ole MissArkansas6.05.97.0
Southern Miss.UTEP5.86.27.8
Western KentuckyUTSA-7.3-6.2-5.9
IowaPenn St.6.04.44.6
Virginia TechNotre Dame-2.1-4.2-5.1
ArizonaUCLA-14.3-15.2-15.2
San Diego St.New Mexico24.023.325.0
NevadaNew Mexico St.32.433.134.5

28 Teams Off This Week!

Appalachian St.
Army
Boston College
California
Clemson
Colorado
Fresno St.
Hawaii
Indiana
Iowa St.
Kansas
Kansas St.
Louisiana
Louisiana Tech
Miami (Fla.)
Minnesota
Mississippi St.
North Carolina St.
Northwestern
Oklahoma St.
Oregon
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Rice
South Florida
UNLV
Utah St.
Washington

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Georgia134.4
2Alabama131.1
3Oklahoma123.4
4Ohio St.122.8
5Cincinnati121.5
6Iowa St.120.5
7Iowa119.7
8Texas119.1
9Florida118.3
10Penn St.117.7
11Ole Miss117.2
12Clemson117.2
13Auburn116.0
14U S C115.2
15Arizona St.114.9
16North Carolina114.1
17Texas A&M114.0
18Michigan113.9
19Arkansas113.9
20Notre Dame113.4
21Oregon112.5
22L S U112.2
23Coastal Carolina111.8
24West Virginia111.8
25Oregon St.111.8
26T C U111.5
27Oklahoma St.110.7
28Nebraska110.6
29Wake Forest110.2
30Utah110.1
31BYU109.9
32Miami (Fla.)109.5
33U C L A109.5
34Kentucky109.2
35Baylor108.6
36Washington108.6
37Wisconsin108.5
38Michigan St.108.4
39Mississippi St.108.4
40NC State108.0
41Indiana107.5
42Tennessee107.2
43Liberty107.1
44Kansas St.107.0
45Virginia Tech106.6
46Maryland106.4
47Louisiana106.1
48Minnesota105.9
49Pittsburgh105.5
50Boston College105.5
51Stanford105.1
52Purdue105.0
53Appalachian St.105.0
54Virginia104.6
55Texas Tech103.3
56Boise St.103.2
57Louisville103.1
58Houston103.0
59SMU102.6
60Missouri102.5
61San Diego St.102.0
62Nevada101.2
63South Carolina101.1
64Fresno St.100.3
65UCF100.3
66Army100.2
67Air Force100.1
68Georgia Tech99.8
69Washington St.99.8
70Colorado99.4
71Rutgers98.7
72Miami (Ohio)98.5
73Florida St.98.4
74California98.1
75Wyoming98.1
76East Carolina97.7
77Toledo97.1
78U T S A96.9
79Northwestern96.8
80Central Michigan96.3
81Western Michigan96.2
82Syracuse96.1
83Tulane96.0
84San Jose St.96.0
85U A B95.9
86Illinois95.5
87Buffalo95.4
88Tulsa95.2
89Marshall94.6
90Florida Atlantic93.7
91Hawaii93.6
92Memphis93.5
93Kent St.93.4
94Ball St.93.3
95Eastern Michigan93.0
96South Alabama91.9
97Troy91.8
98Arizona91.6
99Georgia St.91.4
100Colorado St.90.9
101Duke90.6
102Utah St.90.2
103Louisiana Tech89.5
104Georgia Southern88.7
105USF88.6
106Western Kentucky87.9
107Northern Illinois87.4
108Navy87.0
109Middle Tennessee86.8
110Ohio85.9
111U N L V85.1
112Arkansas St.83.9
113Southern Miss.83.0
114Texas St.82.7
115Rice82.1
116Charlotte81.9
117Temple81.8
118Vanderbilt81.4
119New Mexico80.9
120North Texas80.2
121Kansas79.9
122Florida Int’l.78.9
123U T E P78.4
124Bowling Green77.3
125UL-Monroe76.7
126Old Dominion74.9
127Akron74.1
128Connecticut71.8
129New Mexico St.70.8
130UMass69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati121.0120.5123.0121.5
Houston103.3102.2103.6103.0
SMU102.0102.7103.0102.6
UCF100.299.0101.8100.3
East Carolina97.697.098.697.7
Tulane96.294.897.096.0
Tulsa95.495.394.995.2
Memphis92.993.594.193.5
USF88.988.288.888.6
Navy87.386.687.387.0
Temple81.082.582.081.8

AAC Averages96.996.697.697.0

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson116.5116.6118.4117.2
Wake Forest110.3109.6110.7110.2
NC State108.3107.7107.9108.0
Boston College105.1105.6105.7105.5
Louisville102.7102.4104.3103.1
Florida St.98.498.498.398.4
Syracuse96.396.495.896.1

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina113.2113.6115.5114.1
Miami (Fla.)110.0108.9109.8109.5
Virginia Tech107.5106.2106.2106.6
Pittsburgh105.2106.0105.4105.5
Virginia104.1105.4104.3104.6
Georgia Tech99.899.999.899.8
Duke90.691.589.690.6

ACC Averages104.8104.9105.1104.9

Big 12 Conference

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma124.7122.4123.0123.4
Iowa St.121.1119.5120.9120.5
Texas119.8118.3119.3119.1
West Virginia113.3111.5110.6111.8
T C U112.1110.8111.5111.5
Oklahoma St.111.0110.8110.2110.7
Baylor109.3108.7107.9108.6
Kansas St.107.3107.2106.5107.0
Texas Tech103.3103.8102.8103.3
Kansas82.480.077.379.9

Big 12 Averages110.4109.3109.0109.6

Big Ten Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.122.3122.2124.0122.8
Penn St.116.4117.4119.2117.7
Michigan113.2114.2114.4113.9
Michigan St.108.7108.4108.2108.4
Indiana107.3107.1108.1107.5
Maryland107.6106.2105.4106.4
Rutgers97.699.998.598.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa119.4118.9120.8119.7
Nebraska110.2110.6110.9110.6
Wisconsin108.0107.9109.5108.5
Minnesota104.9105.8107.0105.9
Purdue104.6104.2106.3105.0
Northwestern96.997.096.696.8
Illinois95.295.495.895.5

Big Ten Averages108.0108.3108.9108.4

Conference USA

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall94.594.395.194.6
Florida Atlantic92.894.494.093.7
Western Kentucky86.988.588.387.9
Middle Tennessee86.586.487.686.8
Charlotte81.082.082.681.9
Florida Int’l.78.278.979.678.9
Old Dominion74.475.275.074.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U T S A96.797.296.896.9
U A B96.095.895.995.9
Louisiana Tech89.790.288.789.5
Southern Miss.82.483.583.083.0
Rice82.182.082.182.1
North Texas80.580.379.880.2
U T E P78.679.377.278.4

CUSA Averages85.786.386.186.0

Independents

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame112.6113.4114.3113.4
BYU109.9109.4110.4109.9
Liberty106.3107.2107.7107.1
Army100.3100.399.9100.2
Connecticut72.173.170.271.8
New Mexico St.71.271.969.470.8
UMass71.070.167.869.6

Mid-American Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)100.098.097.498.5
Buffalo96.095.095.195.4
Kent St.93.294.692.593.4
Ohio85.386.586.085.9
Bowling Green77.578.276.177.3
Akron75.774.072.774.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Toledo97.697.296.497.1
Central Michigan97.295.895.896.3
Western Michigan96.196.795.796.2
Ball St.94.194.091.893.3
Eastern Michigan94.792.991.593.0
Northern Illinois88.787.086.487.4

MAC Averages91.390.889.890.7

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.1102.8103.6103.2
Air Force99.7100.0100.6100.1
Wyoming97.698.198.798.1
Colorado St.90.790.791.390.9
Utah St.89.990.889.990.2
New Mexico81.381.579.980.9

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Diego St.102.3101.8101.9102.0
Nevada100.6102.0100.9101.2
Fresno St.99.2100.6101.3100.3
San Jose St.96.696.694.896.0
Hawaii93.793.493.793.6
U N L V85.584.685.285.1

MWC Averages95.095.295.195.1

Pac-12 Conference

North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.6112.5113.5112.5
Oregon St.111.6111.6112.1111.8
Washington107.5109.0109.2108.6
Stanford104.7105.7105.0105.1
Washington St.99.4100.499.599.8
California96.099.998.698.1

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C114.7114.7116.0115.2
Arizona St.114.4115.1115.3114.9
Utah110.4110.2109.8110.1
U C L A109.2109.6109.7109.5
Colorado99.999.498.999.4
Arizona91.991.491.591.6

Pac-12 Averages105.9106.6106.6106.4

Southeastern Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia133.9134.0135.5134.4
Florida117.6119.1118.3118.3
Kentucky108.4110.2108.9109.2
Tennessee107.3106.9107.3107.2
Missouri102.5103.0102.1102.5
South Carolina101.4101.2100.8101.1
Vanderbilt82.081.380.881.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama131.1130.2132.1131.1
Ole Miss117.1117.0117.5117.2
Auburn116.3115.4116.4116.0
Texas A&M113.8114.4113.8114.0
Arkansas114.1114.1113.5113.9
L S U111.6112.4112.7112.2
Mississippi St.108.4108.6108.1108.4

SEC Averages111.8112.0112.0111.9

Sun Belt Conference

East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina112.5110.3112.5111.8
Appalachian St.104.5104.2106.3105.0
Troy91.591.992.091.8
Georgia St.91.891.091.491.4
Georgia Southern88.789.188.488.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana106.8105.0106.6106.1
South Alabama92.192.191.491.9
Arkansas St.83.984.783.183.9
Texas St.84.181.982.182.7
UL-Monroe77.377.475.476.7

Sun Averages93.392.892.993.0

Conference Ratings

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.9
2Big 12109.6
3Big Ten108.4
4Pac-12106.4
5Atlantic Coast104.9
6American Athletic97.0
7Mountain West95.1
8Sun Belt93.0
9Independents91.8
10Mid-American90.7
11Conference USA86.0

PiRate Ratings Commence Bowl Projections Today

With one month of play in the books, it is time to begin issuing our Bowl Projections. This is starting to look like a fractured college football season. The Atlantic Coast Conference and Pac-12 Conference have basically been eliminated from Playoff contention. In the Big 12, Oklahoma looks anything like a Playoff team, and Ohio State’s loss at home to Oregon now looks much worse with Oregon losing to Stanford.

Meanwhile, the SEC has two super teams that should be co-number ones. Alabama and Georgia might finish the regular season as the top two seeds even though one team must lose a game in the SEC Championship Game.

Cincinnati’s road win over Notre Dame is enough for now to put them in the Field of Four, but only if either the Big 12 or Big Ten champions have a loss. The Bearcats still have some tough conference opposition to conquer in SMU and Houston.

The Redbox Bowl has already cancelled their 2021 game, and that leaves spots for 82 teams in the postseason. As of today, we count 85 teams that are on pace of a minimum of six wins. The 6-6 line has a large number of teams.

Here is our first stab at the projections for 2021-22. Unlike recent years, there is a lot more wiggle room for different conferences to appear in multiple bowls.

BowlTeamTeam
BahamasUTSAToledo
CureLibertyMarshall
BocaFlorida AtlanticCoastal Carolina
New MexicoUTEPWyoming
IndependenceBYULouisiana Tech
Lending TreeWestern MichiganTroy
L. A.San Jose St.Arizona St.
New OrleansUABLouisiana
Myrtle BeachAppalachian St.Northern Illinois
Famous Idaho PotatoKent St.Boise St.
FriscoMemphisUtah St.
Armed ForcesArmyWashington
GasparillaEast CarolinaIowa St.
HawaiiHoustonNevada
CamelliaMiami (O)South Alabama
Quick LaneBall St.Western Kentucky
MilitaryVirginia TechCentral Florida
BirminghamMiami (Fla.)Mississippi St.
First ResponderTCUFresno St.
LibertyKansas St.Arkansas
HolidayNorth CarolinaUtah
Guaranteed RateAir ForceBaylor
FenwayBoston CollegeSMU
PinstripePittsburghIndiana
Cheez-ItWake ForestTexas
AlamoOklahoma St.Stanford
Duke’s MayoNorth Carolina St.Auburn
Music CityMinnesotaTennessee
Las VegasWisconsinUSC
Tax Slayer GatorVirginiaLSU
Tony The Tiger SunLouisvilleUCLA
ArizonaCentral MichiganSan Diego St.
CitrusMichiganOle Miss
OutbackMichigan St.Florida
TexasTexas TechTexas A&M
PeachClemsonPenn St.
FiestaOregonNotre Dame
RoseOhio St.Oregon St.
SugarKentuckyOklahoma
CottonIowaAlabama
OrangeGeorgiaCincinnati
ChampionshipGeorgiaAlabama

This Week’s TV Fare

This week presents fewer total games, as we mentioned early that 28 teams have bye weeks. There are a handful of important and exciting games on the schedule, but this may be the week to watch the Major League Baseball Playoffs more than college football.

Saturday, October 9
Time (ET)NetworkHomeVisitor
12:00 PMABCTexas (n)Oklahoma
FoxOhio St.Maryland
ESPNOle MissArkansas
ESPN2TennesseeSouth Carolina
FS1BaylorWest Virginia
CBSSNToledoNorthern Illinois
BTNRutgersMichigan St.
SECFloridaVanderbilt

3:00 PMACCLouisvilleVirginia

3:30 PMCBSAuburnGeorgia
ABCBYUBoise St.
ESPNNorth CarolinaFlorida St.
ESPN2SyracuseWake Forest
FS1Colorado St.San Jose St.
CBSSNNavySMU
BTNIllinoisWisconsin

4:00 PMFoxIowaPenn St.
SECMissouriNorth Texas
Pac-12Washington St.Oregon St.

7:00 PMESPNTexas TechTCU
ESPNUKent St.Buffalo
CBSSNAir ForceWyoming

7:30 PMABCNebraskaMichigan
SECKentuckyLSU
ACCVirginia TechNotre Dame

8:00 PMCBSTexas A&MAlabama
FOXUSCUtah
FS1San Diego St.New Mexico

9:00 PMESPN2TulsaMemphis

10:30 PMESPNArizonaUCLA
CBSSNNevadaNew Mexico St.

September 7, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football, September 7, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:20 am

This Week’s Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
Coastal CarolinaKansas25.325.031.4
Boise St.UTEP28.626.830.8
VirginiaIllinois10.311.99.3
ArmyWestern Kentucky23.521.522.8
Ohio St.Oregon14.413.313.6
MassachusettsBoston College-31.1-32.5-36.3
South FloridaFlorida-25.7-29.3-27.2
TennesseePittsburgh5.33.55.3
East CarolinaSouth Carolina-5.7-6.8-4.2
Florida AtlanticGeorgia Southern-0.11.61.7
MinnesotaMiami (O)8.612.815.3
Oklahoma St.Tulsa16.015.615.4
Northern IllinoisWyoming-2.8-5.7-7.4
SyracuseRutgers0.0-2.6-1.7
Virginia TechMiddle Tennessee25.624.823.0
New MexicoNew Mexico St.18.418.120.2
Notre DameToledo13.916.317.7
ConnecticutPurdue-29.1-27.4-33.2
NavyAir Force-5.8-6.5-6.8
Penn St.Ball St.19.120.425.0
AkronTemple6.12.21.4
GeorgiaUAB31.331.433.6
TCUCalifornia24.618.621.4
NebraskaBuffalo6.27.87.1
Iowa St.Iowa8.16.96.0
Colorado (d)Texas A&M-9.7-11.5-12.2
Bowling GreenSouth Alabama-18.6-18.5-20.5
RiceHouston-10.5-8.8-10.3
Miami (Fla.)Appalachian St.16.816.115.2
Florida Int’l.Texas St.-7.9-4.5-3.8
Mississippi St.North Carolina St.1.01.80.6
WisconsinEastern Michigan24.125.929.3
SMUNorth Texas13.915.415.6
TroyLiberty-7.7-8.7-9.4
Arkansas St.Memphis-0.40.4-3.3
ArkansasTexas-5.2-3.3-6.0
KentuckyMissouri3.95.23.9
North CarolinaGeorgia St.24.425.328.4
MichiganWashington2.31.71.5
Colorado St.Vanderbilt1.52.63.4
ArizonaSan Diego St.-1.0-1.0-1.0
BYUUtah-0.8-2.1-0.1
Arizona St.UNLV28.931.531.3
USCStanford20.919.623.3
Oregon St.Hawaii15.215.815.7
(d) CU-A&M gameplayed in Denver

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama132.7
2Georgia125.8
3Oklahoma125.4
4Iowa St.122.1
5Ohio St.121.9
6Clemson121.6
7U S C119.8
8Cincinnati119.2
9Texas A&M118.3
10Auburn117.8
11Florida117.1
12Texas117.0
13Iowa116.6
14North Carolina116.3
15T C U116.0
16Miami (Fla.)114.9
17Penn St.114.9
18Wisconsin114.6
19Ole Miss113.8
20U C L A113.0
21Arizona St.112.1
22Indiana112.1
23Utah111.9
24L S U111.6
25West Virginia111.4
26Oklahoma St.111.3
27Oregon111.1
28Notre Dame109.9
29Arkansas109.2
30NC State109.1
31Coastal Carolina108.9
32BYU108.9
33Maryland108.4
34Louisiana108.1
35Washington108.1
36Kentucky107.8
37Wake Forest107.3
38Mississippi St.107.3
39Virginia Tech107.2
40Michigan106.9
41Minnesota106.6
42Liberty106.5
43Missouri106.5
44Boston College106.4
45Michigan St.106.0
46Oregon St.106.0
47Kansas St.105.8
48Colorado105.7
49Purdue104.6
50Baylor104.1
51Texas Tech104.0
52Army103.8
53Florida St.103.8
54Tennessee103.7
55Virginia103.7
56Boise St.103.5
57UCF103.5
58Nebraska103.5
59Northwestern102.8
60Tulane102.2
61South Carolina102.0
62Pittsburgh102.0
63Appalachian St.101.9
64Louisville101.6
65Stanford101.5
66San Jose St.100.4
67Nevada100.1
68Central Michigan99.7
69Rutgers99.6
70Washington St.99.6
71Buffalo99.5
72San Diego St.98.9
73Houston98.6
74Fresno St.98.1
75California97.4
76Miami (Ohio)97.4
77Wyoming97.3
78Tulsa97.1
79Toledo97.0
80Marshall96.7
81U A B96.7
82Georgia Tech96.6
83SMU96.5
84Ball St.96.4
85Illinois96.2
86U T S A95.9
87Air Force95.7
88Syracuse95.7
89Troy95.4
90Arizona94.9
91East Carolina94.4
92Memphis93.5
93Hawaii93.4
94Georgia St.93.2
95South Alabama92.8
96Kent St.91.5
97Eastern Michigan91.2
98Ohio90.8
99Arkansas St.90.4
100Georgia Southern90.2
101Northern Illinois89.0
102Western Michigan89.0
103Louisiana Tech89.0
104Utah St.89.0
105Florida Atlantic88.8
106Duke88.3
107Texas St.88.2
108Rice87.7
109USF87.7
110Vanderbilt86.6
111Navy86.3
112Colorado St.86.2
113Middle Tennessee85.7
114New Mexico85.5
115Kansas84.7
116U N L V84.6
117Western Kentucky84.2
118North Texas83.0
119Southern Miss.82.8
120Charlotte80.7
121Florida Int’l.80.3
122Akron78.5
123U T E P77.8
124Temple77.3
125UL-Monroe75.6
126Connecticut72.7
127Old Dominion71.8
128UMass71.6
129Bowling Green71.1
130New Mexico St.68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati119.0118.0120.6119.2
UCF103.1102.0105.4103.5
Tulane102.0100.7103.8102.2
Houston99.197.599.298.6
Tulsa97.297.396.797.1
SMU95.896.996.996.5
East Carolina94.593.495.394.4
Memphis92.793.194.693.5
USF88.387.087.787.7
Navy86.886.086.386.3
Temple76.478.177.477.3

AAC Averages95.995.596.796.0


Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.5120.9123.2121.6
NC State109.5108.8109.1109.1
Wake Forest107.7106.5107.8107.3
Boston College105.9106.5106.9106.4
Florida St.103.5103.9103.9103.8
Louisville101.3100.9102.5101.6
Syracuse96.295.995.195.7

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina115.2115.3118.3116.3
Miami (Fla.)115.2114.0115.6114.9
Virginia Tech108.1106.8106.8107.2
Virginia103.1105.1102.8103.7
Pittsburgh101.6102.7101.8102.0
Georgia Tech96.796.796.596.6
Duke88.389.687.188.3

ACC Averages105.2105.3105.5105.3


Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma126.6124.0125.5125.4
Iowa St.122.6120.8122.9122.1
Texas118.0115.9117.2117.0
T C U116.6115.1116.3116.0
West Virginia113.0111.1110.1111.4
Oklahoma St.111.7111.4110.7111.3
Kansas St.106.2106.2105.1105.8
Baylor104.7104.3103.3104.1
Texas Tech104.0104.8103.2104.0
Kansas87.484.981.884.7

Big 12 Averages111.1109.8109.6110.2


Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.121.1121.3123.2121.9
Penn St.113.5114.6116.5114.9
Indiana111.7111.6113.0112.1
Maryland109.8108.1107.1108.4
Michigan106.2107.1107.3106.9
Michigan St.106.4106.0105.7106.0
Rutgers98.6100.999.399.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Iowa116.0115.5118.4116.6
Wisconsin113.9113.9115.9114.6
Minnesota105.1106.6108.1106.6
Purdue104.4103.8105.6104.6
Nebraska103.2103.7103.5103.5
Northwestern102.9102.8102.6102.8
Illinois95.896.296.696.2

Big Ten Averages107.8108.0108.8108.2


Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall96.796.796.996.7
Florida Atlantic87.789.789.088.8
Middle Tennessee85.485.186.785.7
Western Kentucky83.285.184.384.2
Charlotte79.980.981.380.7
Florida Int’l.79.280.281.480.3
Old Dominion71.572.171.771.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B96.996.796.496.7
U T S A95.896.495.595.9
Louisiana Tech89.389.987.989.0
Rice87.687.787.987.7
North Texas83.483.082.783.0
Southern Miss.82.083.682.882.8
U T E P78.079.076.277.8

CUSA Averages85.586.185.885.8


FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame108.7110.3110.8109.9
BYU109.0108.0109.7108.9
Liberty105.3106.6107.5106.5
Army103.7103.6104.1103.8
Connecticut73.374.570.472.7
UMass73.372.569.171.6
New Mexico St.69.269.966.868.6

Indep. Averages91.892.291.291.7


Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Buffalo100.099.099.499.5
Miami (Ohio)99.596.895.897.4
Kent St.91.193.090.591.5
Ohio89.791.691.090.8
Akron80.578.376.978.5
Bowling Green71.872.169.371.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan100.499.199.599.7
Toledo97.897.096.197.0
Ball St.97.497.394.596.4
Eastern Michigan92.991.089.691.2
Northern Illinois90.688.687.989.0
Western Michigan89.389.688.189.0

MAC Averages91.791.189.990.9


Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.6102.8104.0103.5
Wyoming96.597.298.397.3
Air Force95.695.596.195.7
Utah St.88.789.888.589.0
Colorado St.86.086.086.586.2
New Mexico85.686.085.085.5

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Jose St.100.9101.099.4100.4
Nevada99.4101.099.8100.1
San Diego St.99.498.798.698.9
Fresno St.96.498.599.498.1
Hawaii93.793.093.493.4
U N L V85.584.084.384.6

MWC Averages94.394.594.494.4


Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon109.8111.1112.6111.1
Washington106.9108.4108.9108.1
Oregon St.105.9105.8106.2106.0
Stanford101.3102.4100.8101.5
Washington St.99.5100.399.199.6
California95.099.597.997.4

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C119.2119.0121.0119.8
U C L A112.7112.9113.3113.0
Arizona St.111.4112.5112.6112.1
Utah111.8112.1111.8111.9
Colorado106.4105.8104.9105.7
Arizona95.494.794.694.9

Pac-12 Averages106.3107.0107.0106.8


Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia125.2125.1127.1125.8
Florida116.0118.3116.9117.1
Kentucky107.2109.1107.1107.8
Missouri106.3106.9106.2106.5
Tennessee103.9103.1104.1103.7
South Carolina102.3102.2101.6102.0
Vanderbilt87.486.486.186.6

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama132.8131.4133.9132.7
Texas A&M117.6118.7118.6118.3
Auburn118.2117.0118.3117.8
Ole Miss113.7113.8113.9113.8
L S U110.7111.9112.2111.6
Arkansas109.8109.6108.2109.2
Mississippi St.107.5107.6106.7107.3

SEC Averages111.3111.5111.5111.5


Sunbelt Conference
East DivisionPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina109.7106.9110.1108.9
Appalachian St.101.3100.9103.4101.9
Troy95.195.495.795.4
Georgia St.93.892.992.993.2
Georgia Southern90.390.789.890.2

West DivisionPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana108.8106.5109.1108.1
South Alabama92.993.192.392.8
Arkansas St.90.391.589.390.4
Texas St.89.687.287.788.2
UL-Monroe76.276.573.975.6

Sun Averages94.894.294.494.5

Rating of Conferences

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.5
2Big 12110.2
3Big Ten108.2
4Pac-12106.8
5Atlantic Coast105.3
6American Athletic96.0
7Sun Belt94.5
8Mountain West94.4
9Independents91.7
10Mid-American90.9
11Conference USA85.8

What To Make Of Week 1

Alabama Football 2021 = UCLA Basketball 1967-1973

College basketball between 1967 and 1973 was all about one team against the rest. UCLA so dominated basketball in those years that their games were seldom entertaining to non-Bruins fans. They won games by scores such as 115-65, 114-56, and 82-43. They beat other top 10 teams by scores like 79-53, 73-57, and 96-77. In the rare occasion that they played the #1 team, when they were not ranked #1, they merely won 101-69 after leading by 44 points before putting in the scrubs.

Alabama football has reached that same point. Games are no longer entertaining unless you are a Crimson Tide fan. Coach Nick Saban has reached the same level as John Wooden. Last year, Alabama played a 10-game all SEC schedule plus two playoff games. Six of the 13 opponents were ranked, and ‘Bama won these six gamed by an average of three touchdowns per game. The Tide suffered heavy losses to the NFL Draft, including the Heisman Trophy winner and a 1st round picked quarterback. For any other program, 2021 would be a large rebuilding season. For Alabama, they simply plug in the next 1st round draft pick at QB, who after one career start is now the front-runner for this year’s Heisman Trophy. It’s just like Sidney Wicks replacing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the best player in the nation in 1969-70, and Bill Walton replacing Wicks in 1971-72.

Revenge Of The FCS

Six FCS teams beat FBS teams in Week One of the college football season. While South Dakota State beating Colorado State may not have been all that surprising, since SDSU is the Alabama of FCS, but when Washington lost at home to Montana, that shook the Power 5 Pac-12 to its foundation.

There are two reasons why these FCS teams were more competitive than normal. First, these FCS teams played football in the Spring. Most of these teams looked like they were in mid-season form, playing more like a Power 5 team in a postseason bowl. Also, with the free extra year given to all players by the NCAA, age tends to lead to parity. An outstanding 5-star 18-year old is light years better than a 3-star 18-year old. A 23-year old college football player most likely is a 3-star holdover, and he is little better than a 23-year old 2-star player at an FCS school.

An excellent case in point is the East Tennessee State slaughter over Vanderbilt. Everything possible was in place to forecast this 20-point blowout win over the SEC host. The Buccaneers played in the Spring and enjoyed an incredible year on the defensive side of the ball. Most of their two-deep returned. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt brought in a new coaching staff after the Commodores went 0-9 and had to use a female soccer player as their placekicker in their final two games. Numerous players left the team via the Transfer Portal, and the incoming coach made it known that he preferred not to sign players from that portal. The Commodores are a very youthful team lacking any real star players, while ETSU had one player in his late 20’s playing Saturday night. Thus, not only was the game an upset that finished 41 points different from the spread, it was obvious that ETSU dominated the Commodores. In some respect, men beat boys.

With all FBS teams now having a game under their belts, expect some of this FCS advantage to disappear each week until it is gone.

Must Watch Games This Week

12 Noon Eastern

Oregon visits the giant horseshoe to face Ohio State on Fox. The Ducks underperformed in a win over Fresno State, but it was obvious that they didn’t show the nation all their weapons. The Pac-12 suffered numerous black eyes, with the rest of the North Division losing their first games.

3:30 PM Eastern

Saturday is the 20th anniversary of the tragic bombings in New York and Washington, D.C. It is no coincidence that Air Force and Navy will play on CBS rather than their regular SEC game.

On ABC, Iowa visits Iowa State for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. The Cyclones were not impressive in their opener against Northern Iowa, but last year, Iowa State lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by 17 in their first game and then beat Oklahoma two weeks later. Iowa looked like the class of the Big Ten West when they trounced Indiana.

7:00 PM Eastern

Perhaps the game of the day comes from Fayetteville, Arkansas, where the Razorbacks will host long-time arch-rival Texas in a game that will soon become a regular affair once Texas joins the SEC (maybe in 2022). Neither team is the dominant top 10 team like they were many times in the 1960’s and 1970’s, but this should be an incredibly, hard-fought game between two 1-0 teams. Catch this game on ESPN.

Mississippi State hosts North Carolina State, and the ACC is suffering more than the Pac-12 after one week. The Wolfpack were one of two bright spots for the ACC, while the Bulldogs had to win on the final play over Louisiana Tech. This should be a close game, and the teams will fight tooth and nail to get to 2-0. This one is on ESPN2.

7:30 PM Eastern

Missouri visits Kentucky in a battle to determine which SEC East team will become the potential top challenger to Georgia, assuming Florida does not retain this position. Missouri had a pedestrian performance in a win over Central Michigan in week one. On the other hand, Kentucky unveiled a new offense led by former Rams’ assistant Laim Coen. Coen’s offense made Penn State transfer Will Levis look like Jared Goff of 2018. Can the Cats put up flashy numbers against an SEC opponent? Tune into this one on The SEC Network.

10:15 PM Eastern

The late games this week could be duds except for the Utah at BYU game in Provo. Aside from it being a rivalry game, both schools looked strong in week one wins. Catch this rivalry game on ESPN.

August 29, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 1-6, 2021

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:26 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

HomeVisitorPiRateMeanBias
RutgersTemple15.615.914.6
Central FloridaBoise St.2.11.43.9
Appalachian St. (n)East Carolina5.25.76.2
North Carolina St.South Florida18.519.118.3
TennesseeBowling Green35.033.538.3
MinnesotaOhio St.-13.5-12.2-12.6
Virginia TechNorth Carolina-5.5-7.2-10.8
Wake ForestOld Dominion38.636.638.9
CharlotteDuke-9.9-10.5-7.3
NorthwesternMichigan St.4.34.85.3
MichiganWestern Michigan15.015.517.2
Georgia St.Army-0.1-0.6-0.9
Kansas St. (n)Stanford2.61.11.5
KentuckyLouisiana-Monroe33.335.335.9
TulaneOklahoma-28.5-27.2-25.6
WisconsinPenn St.6.55.45.7
ArkansasRice26.125.824.2
OregonFresno St.16.816.217.2
MarylandWest Virginia-3.5-3.5-3.8
IowaIndiana0.4-0.41.1
CincinnatiMiami (O)16.418.121.9
NavyMarshall-0.1-0.9-0.8
Miami (Fla.) (n)Alabama-13.3-12.7-13.7
PittsburghMassachusetts28.029.832.6
MissouriCentral Michigan8.810.89.7
Mississippi St.Louisiana Tech25.825.527.0
TexasLouisiana9.99.98.2
USCSan Jose St.18.017.322.0
PurdueOregon St.1.40.71.8
HoustonTexas Tech1.1-1.32.8
Texas St.Baylor-13.4-16.1-14.6
Ohio USyracuse0.63.33.9
AuburnAkron37.638.641.5
IllinoisUTSA7.17.28.8
FloridaFlorida Atlantic32.432.732.3
Georgia TechNorthern Illinois11.714.315.2
Clemson (n)Georgia-2.3-1.4-0.8
South AlabamaSouthern Miss.10.88.88.6
Texas A&MKent St.28.727.430.7
UCLALSU4.93.53.4
ArizonaBYU-11.0-10.7-13.3
CaliforniaNevada0.33.83.5
San Diego St.New Mexico St.33.131.735.4
Washington St.Utah St.18.718.618.9
Florida St.Notre Dame-2.4-4.1-4.7
Ole Miss (n)Louisville11.611.910.0

Note:. Oklahoma vs. Tulane has been moved to Norman, OK.

Home

Oklahoma
Visitor

Tulane
PiRate

33.5
Mean

32.2
Bias

30.6

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBSFCSPiRate
UAB (n)Jacksonville St.18.3
UtahWeber St.30.6
UNLVEastern Washington6.7
New MexicoHouston Baptist20.0
Florida Int’l.Long Island22.4
Ball St.Western Illinois26.7
BuffaloWagner37.7
Coastal CarolinaThe Citadel30.6
TulsaUC-Davis26.3
Western KentuckyUT-Martin17.7
Arizona St.Southern Utah37.7
Eastern MichiganSt. Francis (PA)29.3
KansasSouth Dakota14.6
ColoradoNorthern Colorado31.0
Colorado St.South Dakota St.7.6
WyomingMontana St.21.4
HawaiiPortland St.21.8
Air ForceLafayette35.0
Boston CollegeColgate37.6
ConnecticutHoly Cross7.3
NebraskaFordham25.5
Iowa St.Northern Iowa36.7
LibertyCampbell26.7
Georgia SouthernGardner-Webb28.8
South CarolinaEastern Illinois30.4
Middle TennesseeMonmouth8.6
Oklahoma St.Missouri St.35.0
MemphisNicholls21.6
SMUAbilene Christian28.5
ToledoNorfolk St.33.4
Arkansas St.Central Arkansas15.6
TroySouthern25.7
North TexasNorthwestern St.11.1
VirginiaWilliam & Mary31.9
VanderbiltEast Tennessee St.20.3
TCUDuquesne43.9
WashingtonMontana28.8
UTEPBethune-Cookman11.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

RankTeamRating
1Alabama130.2
2Oklahoma128.1
3Georgia125.2
4Iowa St.124.8
5Clemson122.2
6Ohio St.121.9
7U S C119.4
8Florida118.2
9Texas A&M118.1
10North Carolina117.7
11Miami (Fla.)116.9
12Cincinnati116.5
13Auburn116.1
14T C U116.0
15Wisconsin115.9
16Texas115.6
17Indiana115.5
18Ole Miss113.3
19Arizona St.113.1
20Oklahoma St.113.1
21Penn St.113.1
22Iowa112.8
23Oregon112.5
24West Virginia112.3
25L S U112.1
26Washington112.1
27U C L A112.0
28Utah111.9
29Notre Dame110.2
30Mississippi St.110.1
31Arkansas109.5
32BYU109.2
33Louisiana109.2
34Coastal Carolina108.4
35Wake Forest107.7
36Kentucky107.4
37Maryland107.2
38Oregon St.106.9
39Missouri106.4
40Minnesota106.1
41NC State106.1
42Northwestern105.8
43Colorado105.7
44Liberty105.5
45Virginia Tech105.3
46Boston College105.2
47Michigan104.9
48Baylor104.5
49Kansas St.104.4
50Tennessee104.0
51Boise St.103.9
52Purdue103.7
53Florida St.103.5
54Michigan St.103.0
55Stanford103.0
56UCF102.8
57Virginia102.7
58Washington St.102.5
59Louisville102.1
60Nebraska102.0
61Texas Tech101.9
62Appalachian St.101.0
63South Carolina100.8
64San Jose St.100.8
65Houston100.7
66Pittsburgh100.2
67San Diego St.100.2
68Tulsa100.1
69Army100.0
70Miami (Ohio)99.7
71Central Michigan99.7
72Tulane99.0
73Nevada98.8
74Wyoming98.5
75California98.4
76Georgia Tech98.2
77Buffalo98.0
78Illinois97.6
79Ball St.97.4
80Fresno St.96.7
81Toledo96.7
82Air Force96.5
83Georgia St.96.5
84East Carolina95.3
85U A B95.2
86SMU95.0
87Rutgers95.0
88Arizona94.6
89U T S A93.9
90Hawaii93.6
91Ohio93.5
92Marshall93.4
93Troy93.4
94Memphis93.2
95Syracuse92.9
96Kent St.91.7
97Georgia Southern91.6
98Eastern Michigan91.4
99South Alabama91.2
100Western Michigan91.0
101USF90.4
102Navy90.3
103Vanderbilt90.1
104Arkansas St.89.9
105Duke89.8
106Colorado St.89.0
107Texas St.87.8
108Florida Atlantic87.7
109Northern Illinois87.5
110Rice87.1
111Louisiana Tech86.5
112Utah St.85.8
113New Mexico85.7
114Kansas85.4
115U N L V84.9
116Southern Miss.84.4
117Middle Tennessee83.7
118Western Kentucky82.7
119North Texas81.7
120Temple81.6
121Akron79.8
122Charlotte79.5
123Florida Int’l.79.0
124U T E P77.9
125UL-Monroe75.6
126Connecticut74.3
127UMass73.1
128Old Dominion71.4
129Bowling Green70.8
130New Mexico St.67.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Cincinnati116.3115.3118.0116.5
UCF102.5101.2104.8102.8
Houston101.199.5101.6100.7
Tulsa100.2100.399.7100.1
Tulane98.897.5100.699.0
East Carolina95.394.396.295.3
SMU94.395.495.495.0
Memphis92.492.894.393.2
USF91.089.790.690.4
Navy90.890.090.390.3
Temple80.682.481.981.6

AAC Averages96.796.297.696.8

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Clemson120.9121.5124.0122.2
Wake Forest108.0106.7108.3107.7
NC State106.5105.8105.9106.1
Boston College104.7105.3105.7105.2
Florida St.103.4103.6103.5103.5
Louisville101.7101.4103.2102.1
Syracuse93.793.192.192.9

Coastal Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
North Carolina116.4116.7119.9117.7
Miami (Fla.)117.1116.1117.7116.9
Virginia Tech106.4104.9104.7105.3
Virginia102.1104.1101.8102.7
Pittsburgh99.8100.9100.1100.2
Georgia Tech98.098.398.398.2
Duke89.791.288.589.8

ACC Averages104.9105.0105.3105.0

Big 12 Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oklahoma129.3126.7128.2128.1
Iowa St.125.3123.5125.6124.8
T C U116.6115.1116.3116.0
Texas116.7114.5115.6115.6
Oklahoma St.113.5113.2112.5113.1
West Virginia113.8112.0111.1112.3
Baylor104.9104.8103.8104.5
Kansas St.104.9104.7103.5104.4
Texas Tech102.0102.8100.8101.9
Kansas88.185.682.585.4

Big 12 Averages111.5110.3110.0110.6

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.121.1121.3123.2121.9
Indiana114.9115.0116.4115.5
Penn St.111.7112.8114.6113.1
Maryland108.7106.9105.8107.2
Michigan104.3105.1105.3104.9
Michigan St.103.5103.0102.5103.0
Rutgers94.196.394.595.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin115.2115.2117.3115.9
Iowa112.3111.6114.5112.8
Minnesota104.6106.1107.6106.1
Northwestern105.8105.8105.8105.8
Purdue103.6102.9104.5103.7
Nebraska101.7102.2102.0102.0
Illinois97.197.698.297.6

Big Ten Averages107.0107.3108.0107.5

Conference USA
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Marshall93.493.493.693.4
Florida Atlantic86.788.687.887.7
Middle Tennessee83.483.184.783.7
Western Kentucky81.783.682.882.7
Charlotte78.879.680.279.5
Florida Int’l.77.978.980.179.0
Old Dominion71.271.971.271.4

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U A B95.495.294.995.2
U T S A94.094.593.493.9
Rice87.087.187.387.1
Louisiana Tech86.987.485.286.5
Southern Miss.83.385.284.584.4
North Texas82.181.781.481.7
U T E P78.179.176.377.9

CUSA Averages84.384.984.584.6

FBS Independents
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Notre Dame108.8110.6111.2110.2
BYU109.2108.2110.3109.2
Liberty104.3105.6106.5105.5
Army100.099.8100.2100.0
Connecticut74.976.172.074.3
UMass74.874.070.573.1
New Mexico St.68.569.265.767.8

Indep. Averages91.591.990.991.5

Mid-American Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Miami (Ohio)101.999.298.199.7
Buffalo98.597.597.998.0
Ohio92.294.494.093.5
Kent St.91.393.490.591.7
Akron81.879.678.179.8
Bowling Green71.672.168.870.8

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Central Michigan100.599.199.599.7
Ball St.98.498.395.597.4
Toledo97.596.795.896.7
Eastern Michigan93.191.289.891.4
Western Michigan91.291.690.191.0
Northern Illinois89.387.086.187.5

MAC Averages92.391.790.491.4

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Boise St.103.9103.3104.3103.9
Wyoming97.798.499.598.5
Air Force96.496.396.996.5
Colorado St.88.888.889.389.0
Utah St.85.686.685.285.8
New Mexico85.886.285.285.7

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
San Jose St.101.3101.699.5100.8
San Diego St.100.699.9100.2100.2
Nevada98.499.798.498.8
Fresno St.95.297.297.996.7
Hawaii93.993.293.693.6
U N L V85.884.384.684.9

MWC Averages94.494.694.594.5

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Oregon111.0112.4114.1112.5
Washington110.9112.4112.9112.1
Oregon St.106.7106.7107.3106.9
Stanford102.6103.9102.4103.0
Washington St.102.3103.2102.1102.5
California95.7100.599.098.4

South Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
U S C118.8118.4120.9119.4
Arizona St.112.4113.5113.6113.1
U C L A111.9111.9112.2112.0
Utah111.8112.1111.8111.9
Colorado106.4105.8104.9105.7
Arizona95.294.594.094.6

Pac-12 Averages107.1107.9107.9107.7

Southeastern Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Georgia124.8124.5126.3125.2
Florida117.0119.4118.1118.2
Kentucky106.7108.8106.8107.4
Missouri106.2106.9106.2106.4
Tennessee104.1103.1104.6104.0
South Carolina101.1101.0100.4100.8
Vanderbilt90.989.989.690.1

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Alabama130.4128.8131.3130.2
Texas A&M117.4118.3118.6118.1
Auburn116.4115.2116.6116.1
Ole Miss113.3113.3113.2113.3
L S U111.0112.4112.8112.1
Mississippi St.110.2110.4109.7110.1
Arkansas110.1109.9108.5109.5

SEC Averages111.4111.6111.6111.5

Sunbelt Conference
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Coastal Carolina109.2106.4109.6108.4
Appalachian St.100.5100.0102.5101.0
Georgia St.97.096.296.396.5
Troy93.193.493.793.4
Georgia Southern91.792.191.291.6

TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Louisiana109.8107.6110.4109.2
South Alabama91.691.590.691.2
Arkansas St.89.891.088.889.9
Texas St.89.486.787.287.8
UL-Monroe76.476.573.975.6

Sun Averages94.894.194.494.5

Rating of Conferences

RankConferenceRating
1Southeastern111.5
2Big 12110.6
3Pac-12107.7
4Big Ten107.5
5Atlantic Coast105.0
6American Athletic96.8
7Mountain West94.5
8Sun Belt94.5
9Independents91.5
10Mid-American91.4
11Conference USA84.6

August 19, 2021

Big Ten Conference Preview

For many years from 1968 until the early 1980’s, the Big Ten Conference was jokingly called, “The Big Two and the Little Eight.”  Either Ohio State or Michigan won the conference championship for 13 consecutive years, and no other school other than the Big Two made an appearance in the Rose Bowl between Indiana in January of 1968 and Iowa in January of 1982.

The Big Ten had just 10 teams then.  Now, they have 14, and the league has been jokingly called, “Ohio State and the 13 Dwarves.”  The Buckeyes have won the last four Big Ten football championships and remain the only league team ever to win an FBS Playoff Game.

As the 2021 season nears its beginning, there isn’t much data out there that can be used to find an alternative to the Buckeyes’ being named the heavy favorite to win the conference championship for the fifth year in a row or any reason to believe they won’t return to the College Football Playoffs.  The Big Ten media concurs with this thought.  Here is how they voted at the preseason meetings.

Big Ten Media Poll
East Division1st PlTotal
Ohio St.34238
Penn St.192
Indiana169
Michigan144
Maryland79
Rutgers77.5
Michigan St.52.5
West Division1st PlTotal
Wisconsin29233
Iowa5202
Northwestern160
Minnesota146
Nebraska91.5
Purdue72.5
Illinois47

How do the Preseason PiRate Ratings compare to the media poll?

Big Ten Conference
East Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Ohio St.121.1121.3123.2121.9
Indiana114.9115.0116.4115.5
Penn St.111.7112.8114.6113.1
Maryland108.7106.9105.8107.2
Michigan104.3105.1105.3104.9
Michigan St.103.5103.0102.5103.0
Rutgers94.196.394.595.0

West Division
TeamPiRateMeanBiasAverage
Wisconsin115.2115.2117.3115.9
Iowa112.3111.6114.5112.8
Minnesota104.6106.1107.6106.1
Northwestern105.8105.8105.8105.8
Purdue103.6102.9104.5103.7
Nebraska102.8103.4103.3103.2
Illinois96.096.496.996.4

Big Ten Averages107.0107.3108.0107.5

Here is a brief preview of each team.

East Division

Ohio St.: When a typical team loses an All-American quarterback like Justin Fields and a star running back like Trey Sermon, the immediate thought of major rebuild and significant drop in production comes to mind.  In Columbus, it means an opportunity to show the nation who the next stars will be.  Ohio State’s quarterback room is now overcrowded, and at least one of the heralded stars on the roster is likely to hit the Transfer Portal to play elsewhere in 2022.

The elephant in the Buckeyes’ quarterback room is true freshman Quinn Ewers.  He should be a senior in high school, but he reclassified by graduating early and has made it to Columbus, where he will contend with three other star players for the starting job.  Ewers has the talent to be even better than Trevor Lawrence, but he will most likely start the season as the backup to redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud.  Having Ewers as the #2 to start the season will be like Stanford having John Elway as Turk Schonert’s backup in 1979.

Expect a bit more running from the Buckeyes this year, at least until the quarterbacks get some experience.  Master Teague, III, will get the most carries, but the Buckeyes are deep with quality backs, and a running back by committee should combine to average north of 250 rushing yards per game.  The offensive line should be as strong as last year.

What about the receiving corps?  Simply, it is the far and away best unit in college football with two potential first team All-Americans.  Chris Olave would have been a first round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft had he decided to declare.  He and teammate Garrett Wilson should both become first round selections in 2022.  They combined to catch 93 passes and average 15.6 yards per catch with 13 touchdowns.  Number three option Jeremy Ruckert is one of the top ten tight ends in college football.  The backups would start at just about every other Big Ten school.  Expect OSU to top 40 points and 500 total yards yet again in 2021.

There will be some rebuilding to complete on the defensive side.  The linebacking unit will unveil entirely new starters, but these are four-star recruits and upperclassmen, so it’s like bringing in three five-star recruits.  The defensive line will still be the best in the league and top five in the nation, and a strong front four can disguise a lot of liabilities in the short passing zones with exceptional pass rushing.  The Buckeye secondary should be strong even with the loss of former star Shaun Wade.  Cover cornerback Sevyn Banks should contend for 1st team All-Big Ten honors.

Ohio State gave up more than 25 points and 400 yards per game last year, but 25% of their schedule was against Clemson and Alabama, and another 12.5% was against Indiana.  Expect the averages to come down considerably in 2021, as the Buckeyes play more teams with weaker offenses.

Penn State had a rare losing season in the shortened 2020 Covid year.  An opening game loss to Indiana in overtime was gifted to the Hoosiers, and the Nittany Lions were derailed until Thanksgiving.  At 0-5, Penn State closed with four strong wins by an average score of 36-17.  Coach James Franklin is a winner; he did the impossible at Vanderbilt by winning nine games in back-to-back years and finishing ranked in the top 25.  Vanderbilt’s other nine-win seasons were 1904 and 1915.  Franklin is the best motivating coach since Tommy Lasorda managed the Los Angeles Dodgers.

We expect the Nittany Lions to make a big turnaround in 2021 and play more like the team that finished 4-0 and not the team that started 0-5.  On offense, quarterback Sean Clifford returns and has four of his top five targets returning.  Jahan Dotson is the Big Ten’s best receiver not wearing scarlet and gray.  He averaged 17 yards per catch with eight scores in nine games.  At running back, multiple players with experience return, and like Ohio State, this should be a running back by committee approach.  There is a small question in the offensive line, but there’s enough talent returning to keep this unit from being a liability.

Defensively, Penn State will be tough to pass against into the intermediate and longer zones.  The Lions may once again begin to look like Linebacker U this year, with new talent usurping starting returning players.  There should be considerable improvement in this trio.  Up front, the four-man interior will be inexperienced and the reason why Penn State cannot compete with Ohio State this year.  Still, overall, the Lions should be the second best team in the East and could bounce back with a nine-win season.

Indiana was the darling of the Power 5 Conferences last year and second best story overall after Coastal Carolina.  Last year’s 6-1 Big Ten record was the Hoosiers’ best since they tied for the league title and went to the Rose Bowl in the 1967 season.  The season was no fluke.  Indiana took Ohio State to the final horn in their game in Columbus last year, losing by a touchdown.

With a large percentage of returning starters, more than both Ohio State and Penn State, one would expect that we should pick IU to contend for the East Division title this year.  Alas, we believe that the Hoosiers played above their talent level last year, and seldom can a team outperform its talent level two years in a row for an entire season.  Expect a couple of teams to defeat Indiana inside the league, and a non-conference game against top Group of 5 team Cincinnati will be a tough one to win.

Quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., is one of the most exciting offensive threats in college football.  However, he has been injury-prone, not like Carson Wentz, but enough to worry that he can make it through an entire season.  Backup Jack Tuttle is capable for a game or two, but he’s not the answer for an extended period of time.  Penix is worth a good 10-13 points more per game than Tuttle to the IU offense.

Penix’s favorite receiver from 2020 has graduated.  Slot receiver Whop Philyor led the Hoosiers with 54 receptions, many being 7-10 yard plays on 3rd and 5 or 6.  His loss will hurt the offense more than what his stats looked like.  Big play specialist Ty Fryfogle will need to come up with a monster year if IU is to stay ahead of Penn State for second best in the division.

The running game was an afterthought last year, so losing their leading rusher isn’t all that much of a loss, especially when the backups had better stats per play.  The offensive line will be strong and protect Penix, so Indiana’s offense should score about 30 points per game this year.

The Indiana defense was quite opportunistic in 2020, and they lost their defensive coordinator, who took the head coaching job at South Alabama.  New defensive coordinator Charlton Warren has a reputation for being an excellent recruiter and developer of pass coverage.  Indiana had a decent pass defense last year, and with most of the back seven returning, Warren will coach them up to be better in 2021.  The problem is the defensive front four was a bit vulnerable last year, and it may not be much improved this year.  Teams that can run the ball between the tackles and allow their quarterbacks enough time to throw the ball will exploit the Hoosiers.

Maryland has been a team on the cusp of becoming good over the last few years, but off-the-field issues have contributed to the inability to get over that final hump.  Head Coach Mike Locksley has one of the worst overall head coaching records at 8-43, but that record is as deceiving as Casey Stengel’s managerial record prior to taking the New York Yankees job in 1949.  Locksley spent some time as an assistant at Alabama under Nick Saban, and he has a reputation for being an excellent recruiter.  Over time, Maryland should have better talent and will be able to contend for second place in the East.  This year, a run at bowl eligibility is possible as there is a path to a six-win season.

The Terps’ offense starts with quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, the younger brother of Tua of the Miami Dolphins.  Taulia has potential to be a star, but he has to cut down on errant throws.  New offensive coordinator Dan Enos was the OC at Alabama when Tua became a star.  If Taulia can improve just enough to cut down on interceptions and complete a couple more passes per game, Maryland’s offense will improve by several places in the league after finishing near the bottom last year.

The Terps were weak defensively last year, giving up 32 points and 430 total yards per game.  Pass defense was much better than run defense, but opponents didn’t have to throw the ball a lot, and when they did, they three longer passes to force the defense not to crowd the line with extra defenders.  The front four returns all four players that began the season as starters, and the IU run defense should improve some.

An opening game against West Virginia will be as important as any conference game this year.  If the Terps can beat WVU, they have a path to five more wins and bowl eligibility.

What can we say about Michigan and Coach Jim Harbaugh that hasn’t been said on ESPN, Fox, CBS radio network talk shows as well as several local talk shows?  Michigan is no longer the dynasty team it was for decades.  Some of the decline is not exclusively Harbaugh’s fault,  The school has tightened admissions standards ever so slightly since the mid 2000’s, and there have been some top recruits denied admission even though they were academically qualified.  Still, there are ample numbers of recruits that can play at Michigan; this is not Rice, Vanderbilt, or Stanford.

2021 is probably the last straw season for Harbaugh.  Coming off a 2-4 season that came close to being 1-5, the Wolverines must start from scratch on the offensive side of the ball with a major rebuild that is likely to prevent UM from being any more than a six or seven-win team.  Quarterback Cade McNamara begins the season at number one on the depth chart, but he may not end the season there.  J.J. McCarthy is the best quarterback recruit to come to Ann Arbor in many years, and the five-star stud might eventually become the starter.  McNamara was anything but flashy in his limited time under center in an injury-filled, shortened season.  His ability to throw quick, short passes is excellent, but he has a tendency to throw dump off passes rather than challenge the defense with deeper routes like former starter Joe Milton.  Until the time that McCarthy might assume command of the offense, expect offensive coordinator Josh Gattis to rely more and more on the UM ground game.  That ground game bogged down last year, but it should bounce back with decent production this year.  Hassan Haskins has the potential to be a 1,000 yard rusher.  He averaged an eye-popping six yards per carry last year with six touchdowns in limited action.  Look for true freshman Donovan Edwards to figure in the running back rotation.

The Michigan defense has nowhere to go but up after looking more like a Mid-American Conference defense in 2020.  UM gave up almost 35 points per game and more than 430 yards per game last year, numbers that will not succeed in the Big Ten.  With nine starters returning plus several other key backups, Harbaugh has borrowed a new defensive coordinator on loan from his brother John’s Baltimore Ravens.  Mike Macondald will most likely implement much of the multiple defense the Ravens use.  There is enough raw talent to give the Wolverines a shot in the arm on this side of the ball and vastly improve on the numbers surrendered last year–at least until November 27.  Michigan did not play Ohio State last year, and the Buckeyes felt like the Wolverines opted out so they would not be embarrassed with a 50-14 type of score.

The strength of this defense will be the defensive front, be it a 4-3, 3-4, or something else.  End Aidan Hutchinson will contend for All-American honors.  The secondary should be improved as well a the starting unit returns intact and should show improvement over a weak 2020 showing.

Michigan has a key non-conference home game with Washington on September 11.  It is sandwiched between two winnable MAC opponents.  The Wolverines’ and Harbaugh’s fate may be sealed that day.  If Michigan can pull off what should be an upset, the confidence gained might allow the Wolverines to challenge Penn State and Indiana for second best in the East.  If they lose that game, it will be a tough task to exceed six or seven wins.  A 6-6 or worse season probably ends the Harbaugh reign at The Big House.  At 7-5, it is still iffy.  Beating Washington is the key to a potential 8-4 or better season, and Harbaugh’s future at his alma mater hinges on that one game.

Michigan State is the only Big Ten team other than Ohio State to make the College Football Playoffs.  The 2015 Spartans upset then #3 Ohio State, lost by one point to Nebraska, slaughtered Penn State by almost 40 points, and beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game to earn a spot in the playoffs at 12-1.  Alabama quickly disposed of Sparty 38-0 in the Cotton Bowl semifinals.

It’s been mostly downhill since 2015 at Spartan Stadium.  MSU enjoyed one fairly strong campaign in 2017, but 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020 were off years.

Second year head coach Mel Tucker was a backup choice as MSU’s replacement for Dantonio.  He had been a head coach at Colorado State for one season, and the jury is out on whether he can win in the Big Ten.  A win over Michigan has bought Tucker some time to prove he can get the job done.  2021 is one of unknowns for this team.  There are some talented players with experience on board, but there are multiple question marks as well.  None of the offensive or defensive units rank in the upper half of the league.  

There are questions at quarterback, which in these days of college football, it’s like saying a major league baseball team has questions with its entire pitching staff.  Former Temple starting quarterback Anthony Russo guided the Owl to two bowl games, while putting up decent but not great numbers.  His numbers against Power 5 conference defenses were not that impressive.

The MSU running game is one of the weakest in the league.  It produced just 91 yards per game last year, and there is little reason to expect anything more than 125 yards per game at the maximum this year.

The receiving corps is the best unit on the squad, but you won’t find any all-stars on the team.  The offensive line should be better this year, but better from terrible to mediocre isn’t going to beat the top teams in the league.

We expect the Michigan State defense to show improvement this year, as Tucker is, or was once considered to be, a defensive guru.  His best defensive recruit was his hiring of Scottie Hazelton as his coordinator.  Hazelton may look like a lumberjack that has been in the forest for a month, but he’s a genius with repairing defenses and has a long history of success.  There is just enough returning starting talent and comparable backup talent to mold MSU into a defense that opposing offensive coordinators will not enjoy playing against Sparty.  After giving up 35+ points per game and almost 400 yards per game last year, we expect MSU to give up about 28 points and 370 yards per game this year.

The schedule gives MSU a great shot at picking up two out of conference wins, but the conference schedule is tough with games at Northwestern  and at Purdue from the West Division.  If these had been home games, MSU might have had a shot at a 6-6 surprise season, but four wins looks more like the most likely outcome.

Rutgers is a member of the Big Ten Conference because the Scarlet Knights bring the Metro NY-NJ media market into the league.  A lot of people don’t realize that Rutgers is the University of New Jersey.  This school has a potential recruiting base in a multi-state area to compete in the Big Ten, but when 3-6 represents your best conference showing, it is obvious that the making of a legitimate Big Ten program is still in the distance.

Greg Schiano did wave his magic wand over this program in his first tenure in New Brunswick, taking the Scarlet Knights to four consecutive bowl games and a national ranking as high as number six.  He recruited a future NFL star running back in Ray Rice as well as 15 other NFL players, but it took him four years the first time around to build the program into a winner, and that was in the old Big East Conference.   Competing against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan is a little different.

Rutgers defeated Michigan State, Purdue, and Maryland last year, but what has RU fans so upbeat is that this school narrowly lost games to Illinois, Michigan, and Nebraska.  With a tad more talent an experience, the fans believed that the record could have been 6-3.

Now, throw in one key point: Rutgers returns the most starters of any Big Ten team this year!  So, why do they begin the season with a PiRate Rating that has them on the bottom of the division?  The simple answer is that in addition to almost going 6-3 instead of 3-6, they could have also almost gone 0-9.  Schiano deserves a lot of credit for having his team ready to play during the Covid interruptions.  Rutgers didn’t miss a game.  They benefited greatly from Schiano’s exceptional organizational skills as well as his ability to delegate tasks to others.  None of these intangibles figures to be as important this year, as hopefully the virus variant will not cause the issues of 2020.

This is still a roster with sub-Big Ten level talent at many positions.  Noah Vedral didn’t make it at Nebraska against Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey, but he was the best option Schiano had at RU once he landed in New Jersey.  He is a capable game manager, but he isn’t going to frighten Big Ten defensive coordinators.    Backup Johnny Langdan is a better runner, but he is a tad weaker passer.  Neither option can consistently win Big Ten games.

The top player on the offense is receiver Bo Melton.  He led RU with 47 catches and 638 yards last year, but he’s about on par with the #3 receivers at the top schools in the league.  

One part of the offense that should make decent improvement this year is the offensive line, as the starters and some key reserves all return.  The unit should give the quarterbacks a tad more time to throw the ball, possibly topping 200 yards through the air.

Defensively, linebacker is the strength of the team, but at best this is a middle of the pack unit in the Big Ten.  The top player on the entire team is linebacker Olakunle Fatukasi, the younger brother of New York Jets’ defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi.  Fatukasi recorded a team-leading 101 tackles last year.  Fellow linebacker Ty Fogg gives RU an excellent tandem.

The defensive front four and the secondary are serious liabilities.  Rutgers defenses have failed to ever become great pass rushing teams in Big Ten play, and giving quality quarterbacks ample time to throw the ball will not get it done in a Power 5 league.

There is one position where Rutgers has a Big Ten quality performer.  It figures that a team with an inconsistent offense could attract a great punter, and Adam Korsak is one of the top rugby-style punters in America.  Numerous times he punted the ball deep into enemy territory forcing enemy offenses to march 85 yards to score.

West Division

Wisconsin began 2020 looking like a legitimate threat to Ohio State for conference supremacy.  The Badgers pasted Illinois and Michigan by a combined score of 94-18.  A trip to Evanston to face Northwestern ended in a 17-7 defeat, and Wisconsin proceeded to lose to Indiana and Iowa before edging Minnesota for Paul Bunyon’s Axe and once again looking impressive in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl win over Wake Forest.

Considering that the Badgers played the season with a backup quarterback, and the schedule presented brakes due to Covid cancellations, UW never could unleash its full potential in 2020.  A new year probably returns things to normal, and normal is for the Badgers to be the favorite to win the West Division.

Graham Mertz has his ups and downs as a starting quarterback, and in his sophomore year, he may still have some downs, but with the incredible offensive line blocking for him and another great stable of running backs, expect UW to look more like the team that scored 40+ in three of their four wins than the team that scored 20 points total in their three losses.

The UW defense led the Big Ten in fewest yards allowed, and most of the key players return this year.  The four-man linebacker unit returns intact from last year, led by Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal on the inside.  The pair combined for 14 tackles per game.

The secondary should be almost as strong as the linebacker unit.  The three-man defensive front faces a minor rebuild, but there is talent and size there.

The schedule presents several little traps, namely an opening game against Penn State, a September game against Notre Dame at Soldier Field in Chicago, and a mid-October game against Army.  Army’s quick finesse offense could be hard for the Badgers’ strong but not as quick defense.

Iowa dropped its first two games last year, losing to Purdue and Northwestern.  Then, they reeled off six consecutive victories to finish a half-game out of first in the West.  Their bowl game was cancelled due to Covid, so the Hawkeyes enter the 2021 season riding a six-game winning streak.  Not bad for a team that was hit by symptomatic Covid, including then 65-year old head coach Kirk Ferentz.

Iowa lost too much talent to be a serious contender for the West Division title, but the Hawkeyes should nest in the second or third spot in a weak division.  Quarterback Spencer Petras wasn’t flashy last year, but he led the Hawkeyes to 32 points per game.  Having Tyler Goodson return at running back is a major bonus.  Goodson led the Big Ten with 762 yards rushing, scoring seven times.

The defensive line faces a major rebuild this year, but the back seven should be strong once again.  Free safety Jack Koerner has star potential.

The 2021 Hawkeye schedule includes road games against Iowa State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska, as well as tough home games against Indiana and Penn State.  The Hawkeyes will likely go 2-3 or 1-4 in these games, and that won’t be good enough to win the division.

Minnesota had an outstanding 11-2 season in 2019.  Last year, they had two games cancelled by positive Covid issues, and they lost two games in overtime, falling to 3-4.  

The 2021 Gophers’ team has the makings of an excellent offensive team if quarterback Tanner Morgan can return to his 2019 pre-Covid form.  Running back Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for 1,076 yards and 15 touchdowns in just seven games last year.  Enough quality talent returns to the receiving corps, even if top receiver Rashod Bateman did not return.  Chris Autman-Bell has 50 catch, 800-1000 yards potential.  Daniel Jackson will keep defenses honest.

Defense is going to be the problem in Minneapolis this year.  The Gophers are not particularly strong with any of their three units, and this team surrendered 416 yards and 30 points per game last year.  A large number of incoming transfers figure to play considerable snaps this year, but it is questionable whether they can make the Minnesota defense strong enough to contend in the division.

The Gophers pulled the short straw with their 2021 schedule.  They open with Ohio State.  A road game against Colorado will be pivotal in determining UM’s chances to finish with a winning record and to earn a bowl bid.

Northwestern was the surprise winner of the West last year, and the Wildcats even gave Ohio State an excellent Championship Game battle in Indianapolis.  The Wildcats led the league in scoring defense and finished fifth nationally overall.  

Normally, when a school like Northwestern returns just seven starters from its first team the year before, the immediate thought would be that this team was headed to last place in the division.  However, Coach Pat Fitzgerald had excellent depth through outstanding recruiting classes, so even though NU will slip back  in the standings this year, they could still be bowl eligible and pick up an upset win along the way.

Peyton Ramsey was an excellent game-manager in his one year at the helm of the offense.  His loss would normally cripple a team like NU, but the Wildcats have two new transfers that will give the Wildcats depth.  Former Clemson backup Hunter Johnson was a five-star recruit but never got the chance to play much with Trevor Lawrence on the team.  Backup Ryan Hilinski started several games with South Carolina, so the Wildcats are set at quarterback in 2021.  

The receiver unit is an issue this year, where running back Cam Porter is the leading returning receiver.  Expect Northwestern to rely more on the spread running game this year while using more basic passing plays to keep defenses honest.  The offensive line should be an asset this year, so they should be able to open holes for the running game to succeed more times than it fails.

Defense should still be better than average this year, but it won’t lead the league again.  The defensive backfield is the strength on this side, even though top pass defender Greg Newsome II is now a Cleveland Brown.  Safety Brandon Joseph picked up six passes in nine games, and he stands a chance to repeat as an All-American as a sophomore.

Northwestern has size and strength up front, while linebacker is the one questionable spot to start the season.

NU has a good chance to win all three non-conference games, so a 3-6 conference record would be good enough to earn a bowl bid.  We believe Fitzgerald is one of the five best head coaches in college football, and it wouldn’t surprise us if Northwestern pulls off a couple of upsets and wins eight games.

Purdue has been the victim of circumstances for the last three years, suffering more key injuries than any other Big Ten team.  Rondale Moore could have been the best Boilermaker player since Drew Brees, but injuries limited his potential as a big play receiver.

The Boilermakers fell to 2-4 last year, losing their final four games after starting 2-0.  Coach Jeff Brohm is now on a hot seat in West Lafayette after being considered a potential star in the business when he took the job five years ago.

There is enough talent for Purdue to put together a decent offense, but the defense is not up to Big Ten standards.  Purdue could score 30 points per game this year but give up 35, so prospects are not great at Ross-Ade Stadium.  The month of September will be vital to the team’s chances to have any success.  An opening game at home against Oregon State will not be an easy win if a win at all.  A road game against rival Notre Dame is likely to be a double-digit loss.  A conference home-opener against Illinois is a must-win game, but after that one, there are no other guarantee wins on the schedule.  If Purdue can get three conference wins with this defense, it should be considered an accomplishment this year.

Nebraska might be the opposite of Purdue with a decent defense and a questionable offense.  What Coach Scott Frost has going in his favor is the fact that quarterback Adrian Martinez returns and is healthy entering the season.  Martinez has the talent to make an offense work even with a lot of inexperienced players surrounding him.

Nebraska’s 2020 defense was better than average, and the good news is that nine starters return this year.  The 2021 defense may not remind anybody of the great Black Shirt defense, but there are star players on all three units with defensive end Ben Stille, outside linebacker JoJo Domann, and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt.  

Another benefit for this year’s Nebraska team is their schedule.  The one sure non-conference loss will come at the hands of Oklahoma on September 28, when the two teams honor the 50th anniversary season of the greatest game played since the end of World War II.  In conference play, the ‘Huskers get their most winnable games at home, and it should give them a decent shot at a 6-6 season and bowl bid.  Whether that is enough to save Frost’s job, who knows?

Illinois has the one new coach in the league this year, but the new coach isn’t really new.  Former Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema returns to the Big Ten, hoping to take his old school’s rival to the south to the same heights he took his former school.

Illinois beat Rutgers and Nebraska last year, but the Illini were blown off the field by Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Penn State.  

Bielema’s coaching style is to pound the ball on the ground and rely on tight ends that can block linebackers and catch 10-15-yard passes over the middle.  Tight end Daniel Barker made 19 catches in eight games.  He might double that number this year.

Chase Brown rushed for 540 yards and a 5.2 yard average last year.  Bielema will make sure to give him 250 or more rushing attempts this year if Brown remains healthy.  Backup Chase Hayden has seen action with East Carolina and Arkansas, and he will get a share of the load this year.

Brandon Peters returns at quarterback, but redshirt freshman Isaiah Williams might eventually step in.  This is not a particular strong point to the offense.

Illinois was too beneficial defensively last year, giving up 467 yards per game and 35 points per game.  With seven starters back, new defensive coordinator Ryan Walters should improve the Illini pass rush.  However, he cannot work miracles, and it will take miracles for this defense to be strong enough to hold Big Ten opponents under 30 points per game this year.

Non-conference games with UTSA and Charlotte are the only sure wins this year, but a home game with Rutgers is a tossup.

The PiRate Ratings do not look past the next game for each team, but we issue our season won-loss predictions for fun.

Big Ten Conference
East DivisionConf.Overall
Ohio St.9-013-0*
Penn St.6-39-3
Indiana6-39-3
Michigan4-56-6
Maryland3-65-7
Michigan St.2-74-8
Rutgers1-83-9
West DivisionConf.Overall
Wisconsin8-111-2
Iowa7-29-3
Northwestern5-48-4
Nebraska4-56-6
Minnesota4-56-6
Purdue3-65-7
Illinois1-83-9
* Ohio St. picked to win Big Ten Championship Game

March 19, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Friday, March 19, 2021

FavoriteUnderdogSpread
BaylorHartford22.0
WisconsinNorth Carolina0.3
VillanovaWinthrop8.1
PurdueNorth Texas7.4
Texas TechUtah St.2.3
ArkansasColgate8.4
FloridaVirginia Tech2.1
Ohio St.Oral Roberts16.1
IllinoisDrexel20.5
Loyola (Chi.)Georgia Tech2.7
TennesseeOregon St.7.6
Oklahoma St.Liberty8.2
San Diego St.Syracuse2.8
West VirginiaMorehead St.11.6
RutgersClemson1.9
HoustonCleveland St.17.9

March 13, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, March 14, 2021

Team 1Team 2Spread
ColgateLoyola (MD)12.2
St. BonaventureVCU1.7
AlabamaLSU4.3
IllinoisOhio St.4.1
HoustonCincinnati13.7

Today’s Championship Games

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM: Patriot League

CBSSN

Colgate vs. Loyola (MD)

1:00 PM: Atlantic 10

CBS

Saint Bonaventure vs. VCU

1:00 PM: Southeastern

ESPN

Alabama vs. LSU

3:15 PM: American Athletic

ESPN

Cincinnati vs. Houston

3:30 PM: Big Ten

CBS

Illinois vs. Ohio St.

The PiRates are hunkering down in the galley tonight finalizing our official Bracketology predictions for tomorrow. We expect to issue our final predictions as soon as the Conference USA Championship Game winner is known. Cincinnati has the opportunity to burst a bubble just like Georgetown did winning the Big East Championship.

February 28, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:58 am

Sunday, February 28, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
CincinnatiMemphis-4.1
HoustonSouth Florida18.8
NC StatePittsburgh3.3
New HampshireUMass Lowell0.8
HartfordAlbany2.8
ButlerVillanova-10.7
IdahoMontana St.-13.0
MarylandMichigan St.4.4
Ohio St.Iowa0.1
UTEPCharlotte5.0
Western KentuckyFlorida Intl.16.3
MaristQuinnipiac2.4
Delaware St.Coppin St.-5.8
South Carolina St.Florida A&M-10.4
Utah St.Nevada6.8
ArmyBoston University7.0
NavyLoyola (MD)6.4
AmericanBucknell1.2
LehighLafayette-4.2
Oral RobertsWestern Illinois10.3
South DakotaNorth Dakota St.0.9

Coming Monday–Updated ratings and Bracketology plus a first look at early conference tournament action, including some preliminary “Bracketnomics” data.

February 25, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:25 am

Thursday, February 25, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
HoustonWestern Kentucky12.9
Sacramento St.Weber St.-6.5
Northern ColoradoPortland St.2.4
Idaho St.Montana-3.1
MichiganIowa1.8
IllinoisNebraska18.1
Michigan St.Ohio St.-7.3
MinnesotaNorthwestern5.0
DetroitRobert Morris10.7
Youngstown St.Illinois-Chicago3.8
Green BayPurdue Fort Wayne5.3
MilwaukeeIUPUI3.6
Western MichiganMiami (O)-3.3
OhioEastern Michigan12.4
BuffaloCentral Michigan14.3
South Carolina St.Florida A&M-10.4
San Diego St.Boise St.5.3
MerrimackSt. Francis (NY)4.6
St. Francis (PA)Mount St. Mary’s-1.9
Sacred HeartFairleigh Dickinson2.5
BryantLong Island University8.1
Central ConnecticutWagner-8.1
SIU EdwardsvilleUT Martin6.8
Morehead St.Tennessee St.14.0
Eastern KentuckyBelmont-7.1
Jacksonville St.Murray St.-0.3
Eastern IllinoisSoutheast Missouri St.0.7
Tennessee TechAustin Peay-5.8
Arizona St.Washington8.0
UtahUCLA-1.1
ColoradoUSC0.7
StanfordOregon0.2
CaliforniaOregon St.-2.0
ArizonaWashington St.7.8
Prairie View A&MMississippi Valley St.27.1
Texas SouthernArkansas-Pine Bluff13.6
GonzagaSanta Clara30.3
BYUSan Francisco11.0
PepperdineLoyola Marymount2.4
San DiegoPortland11.9
Saint Mary’sPacific5.8

Bracketnomics 2021 is Coming!

Our most popular feature at the PiRate Ratings is coming soon. Our annual Bracketnomics series will commence once conference tournament action begins. We made a major upgrade to the system last year, incorporating a host of new back-tested factors that separated contenders from pretenders in the past.

This new back-engineered data was ready to debut last year, but the virus ended up defeating the Big Dance. This year, the virus still brings special situations to the tournament, as everybody will be brought into a small area of Central Indiana, much like an Olympiad. But, we expect the Bracketnomics data to hold its weight in determining which teams have the best chances to win six games in 17 days.

For what it’s worth, here’s a little tease. The top two teams, the undefeated Gonzaga and undefeated Baylor, currently do not have the ideal resumes for a national champion. On the other hand, if the tournament commenced today, no team would have a perfect resume, but two teams have better resumes than the rest. Those two teams are Michigan and Illinois. A lot can change in the next two weeks, so don’t go placing wagers on the Wolverines and Ilini to make the Final Four. Just remember to check here daily once the conference tournament action begins.

February 21, 2021

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:00 am

Sunday, February 21, 2021

HomeVisitorSpread
George WashingtonRhode Island-8.7
St. BonaventureDavidson4.1
HoustonCincinnati13.0
TempleSouth Florida1.1
XavierButler9.1
Ohio St.Michigan0.7
RutgersMaryland0.1
IowaPenn St.11.0
NorthwesternWisconsin-3.8
DrakeEvansville15.7
Southern IllinoisValparaiso0.3
San Jose St.UNLV-9.2
WagnerSt. Francis (Pa)6.6
ColgateBoston U14.1
AmericanNavy-3.0

Note: Big Announcement Coming Later Today!

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