PiRate Ratings College Football–October 20-23, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Appalachian St.	Coastal Carolina	-8.0	-6.7	-6.7
SMU	Tulane	9.8	11.8	9.9
Arkansas St.	Louisiana	-23.5	-21.5	-24.5
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-7.3	-7.5	-6.3
UNLV	San Jose St.	-6.3	-7.2	-5.1
Connecticut	Middle Tennessee	-12.7	-11.9	-15.9
Central Florida	Memphis	8.6	6.9	8.9
Utah St.	Colorado St.	-1.6	-1.0	-2.2
Arizona	Washington	-15.5	-17.4	-17.5
Toledo	Western Michigan	3.1	2.0	2.4
Florida St.	Massachusetts	32.2	33.0	35.6
Georgia St.	Texas St.	12.2	13.3	13.4
Indiana	Ohio St.	-15.9	-16.0	-17.0
Akron	Buffalo	-12.8	-13.4	-14.3
Penn St.	Illinois	25.4	26.1	27.6
Virginia	Georgia Tech	9.6	10.9	10.1
Louisville	Boston College	2.6	2.0	3.7
Virginia Tech	Syracuse	9.8	8.6	8.7
Pittsburgh	Clemson	-4.2	-3.5	-5.5
Minnesota	Maryland	4.5	6.8	8.6
Michigan	Northwestern	18.5	19.2	19.8
Central Michigan	Northern Illinois	9.6	9.9	10.3
Ohio U	Kent St.	-2.2	-2.6	-0.8
Navy	Cincinnati	-33.3	-33.5	-35.5
Miami (Fla.)	North Carolina St.	1.9	1.4	2.1
Army	Wake Forest	-5.8	-5.0	-6.1
South Florida	Temple	10.8	8.8	9.9
Bowling Green	Eastern Michigan	-16.5	-14.5	-15.1
Houston	East Carolina	9.8	9.4	9.1
Kansas	Oklahoma	-41.4	-41.8	-45.2
Ball St.	Miami (O)	1.3	3.3	2.4
Wyoming	New Mexico	18.7	19.2	20.9
California	Colorado	-2.0	2.3	1.5
Oregon St.	Utah	-1.5	-1.6	-1.3
Washington St.	BYU	-3.3	-1.5	-2.8
UCLA	Oregon	1.7	1.3	0.9
Texas Tech	Kansas St.	-1.2	-0.7	-1.2
TCU	West Virginia	5.3	5.8	7.4
Iowa St.	Oklahoma St.	11.1	9.9	11.6
UAB	Rice	22.0	22.4	22.7
Alabama	Tennessee	25.4	25.0	26.0
Texas A&M	South Carolina	21.5	22.6	23.0
Vanderbilt	Mississippi St.	-22.2	-22.8	-22.9
Purdue	Wisconsin	1.8	1.6	2.4
Ole Miss	LSU	10.0	8.8	9.1
Louisiana-Monroe	South Alabama	-13.2	-12.9	-13.9
North Texas	Liberty	-20.8	-21.7	-22.4
Louisiana Tech	UTSA	-8.4	-8.5	-9.8
Florida Int’l.	Western Kentucky	-8.5	-9.5	-8.8
Air Force	San Diego St.	2.2	3.2	4.1
Notre Dame	USC	3.6	4.3	4.1
Fresno St.	Nevada	3.3	3.3	4.9
Hawaii	New Mexico St.	26.1	25.1	27.7

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Arkansas	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	39.5

Teams Not Playing This Week

Arizona St.

Auburn

Baylor

Boise St.

Duke

Florida

Georgia

Georgia Southern

Iowa

Kentucky

Marshall

Michigan St.

Missouri

Nebraska

North Carolina

Old Dominion

Rutgers

Southern Miss.

Stanford

Texas

Troy

Tulsa

UTEP

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	134.5
2	Alabama	131.4
3	Ohio St.	126.6
4	Oklahoma	124.7
5	Cincinnati	123.2
6	Iowa St.	121.0
7	Texas A&M	117.4
8	Penn St.	117.2
9	Auburn	117.1
10	Ole Miss	116.9
11	Florida	116.8
12	Clemson	116.2
13	Iowa	115.9
14	Texas	115.8
15	Utah	114.7
16	Michigan	114.4
17	Arizona St.	113.7
18	Notre Dame	113.7
19	Oklahoma St.	113.1
20	Arkansas	112.8
21	U S C	112.7
22	Kentucky	112.6
23	T C U	112.5
24	Coastal Carolina	112.5
25	Oregon	112.0
26	Baylor	111.8
27	NC State	111.0
28	L S U	110.6
29	U C L A	110.3
30	Oregon St.	110.2
31	Michigan St.	110.0
32	North Carolina	110.0
33	Miami (Fla.)	109.8
34	Nebraska	109.7
35	West Virginia	109.3
36	Wake Forest	109.3
37	Wisconsin	109.3
38	Tennessee	109.0
39	Louisiana	108.9
40	Pittsburgh	108.7
41	Washington	108.3
42	Purdue	108.2
43	BYU	107.5
44	Indiana	107.3
45	Virginia	107.3
46	Kansas St.	107.1
47	Minnesota	106.9
48	Mississippi St.	106.4
49	Stanford	104.6
50	Houston	104.5
51	Virginia Tech	104.3
52	Liberty	103.4
53	Boise St.	103.4
54	Boston College	103.3
55	Maryland	103.3
56	Louisville	103.1
57	Texas Tech	103.1
58	Appalachian St.	102.8
59	SMU	102.5
60	Fresno St.	102.4
61	Washington St.	101.9
62	Air Force	101.8
63	Florida St.	101.8
64	San Diego St.	101.7
65	Colorado	101.6
66	Nevada	101.5
67	Army	100.7
68	Georgia Tech	100.1
69	Missouri	100.1
70	U T S A	99.3
71	California	99.2
72	U A B	99.1
73	UCF	98.9
74	Northwestern	98.3
75	Syracuse	98.2
76	East Carolina	98.1
77	South Carolina	98.0
78	Miami (Ohio)	97.1
79	Ball St.	97.0
80	Western Michigan	96.2
81	Rutgers	95.9
82	Toledo	95.7
83	Central Michigan	95.6
84	Wyoming	95.5
85	Tulsa	95.3
86	Colorado St.	95.1
87	Tulane	95.0
88	San Jose St.	93.9
89	Marshall	93.9
90	Georgia St.	93.8
91	Memphis	93.8
92	Illinois	93.8
93	Hawaii	93.6
94	South Alabama	93.3
95	Eastern Michigan	93.0
96	Buffalo	93.0
97	Florida Atlantic	92.8
98	Troy	91.5
99	Kent St.	90.8
100	Utah St.	90.5
101	Western Kentucky	89.3
102	USF	88.5
103	Arizona	88.5
104	Northern Illinois	88.2
105	Louisiana Tech	87.4
106	Duke	87.2
107	Ohio	86.9
108	Middle Tennessee	86.7
109	Navy	86.1
110	Georgia Southern	86.0
111	U N L V	85.2
112	Arkansas St.	83.7
113	Texas St.	83.4
114	U T E P	83.3
115	Charlotte	83.3
116	Vanderbilt	81.7
117	Temple	81.7
118	Rice	79.3
119	North Texas	79.2
120	Kansas	78.9
121	New Mexico	78.9
122	Southern Miss.	78.0
123	Florida Int’l.	77.9
124	UL-Monroe	77.5
125	Akron	77.0
126	Bowling Green	75.2
127	Old Dominion	75.0
128	New Mexico St.	71.2
129	UMass	71.2
130	Connecticut	70.2

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	122.6	122.3	124.9	123.2
Houston	104.7	103.7	105.2	104.5
SMU	102.1	102.6	102.8	102.5
UCF	98.9	97.7	100.3	98.9
East Carolina	97.9	97.3	99.0	98.1
Tulsa	95.4	95.4	95.2	95.3
Tulane	95.3	93.8	95.9	95.0
Memphis	93.3	93.8	94.4	93.8
USF	88.8	88.1	88.7	88.5
Navy	86.3	85.8	86.4	86.1
Temple	81.0	82.3	81.8	81.7
AAC Averages	96.9	96.6	97.7	97.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	115.6	115.6	117.2	116.2
NC State	111.2	110.8	111.1	111.0
Wake Forest	109.5	108.8	109.7	109.3
Boston College	103.1	103.4	103.4	103.3
Louisville	102.7	102.4	104.1	103.1
Florida St.	101.6	101.8	102.0	101.8
Syracuse	98.2	98.4	98.2	98.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	109.4	109.5	111.0	110.0
Miami (Fla.)	110.2	109.2	110.2	109.8
Pittsburgh	108.4	109.2	108.7	108.7
Virginia	106.7	108.0	107.1	107.3
Virginia Tech	105.0	103.9	103.9	104.3
Georgia Tech	100.1	100.2	100.0	100.1
Duke	87.2	88.1	86.3	87.2
ACC Averages	104.9	104.9	105.2	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	125.7	123.8	124.6	124.7
Iowa St.	121.5	120.1	121.4	121.0
Texas	116.7	115.0	115.7	115.8
Oklahoma St.	113.4	113.2	112.8	113.1
T C U	113.2	111.9	112.5	112.5
Baylor	112.3	111.8	111.3	111.8
West Virginia	110.9	109.1	108.1	109.3
Kansas St.	107.5	107.2	106.6	107.1
Texas Tech	103.3	103.5	102.4	103.1
Kansas	81.3	79.0	76.4	78.9
Big 12 Averages	110.6	109.5	109.2	109.7
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	126.1	126.0	127.7	126.6
Penn St.	116.0	116.8	118.7	117.2
Michigan	113.7	114.7	114.9	114.4
Michigan St.	110.0	110.0	110.1	110.0
Indiana	107.2	107.0	107.7	107.3
Maryland	104.4	103.0	102.3	103.3
Rutgers	95.1	96.9	95.5	95.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	115.6	115.2	116.9	115.9
Nebraska	109.3	109.7	110.0	109.7
Wisconsin	108.9	108.8	110.2	109.3
Purdue	107.7	107.4	109.6	108.2
Minnesota	105.9	106.8	108.0	106.9
Northwestern	98.2	98.5	98.1	98.3
Illinois	93.6	93.7	94.1	93.8
Big Ten Averages	108.0	108.2	108.8	108.3
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.8	93.7	94.3	93.9
Florida Atlantic	92.1	93.4	93.0	92.8
Western Kentucky	88.3	89.9	89.8	89.3
Middle Tennessee	86.4	86.3	87.4	86.7
Charlotte	82.3	83.4	84.1	83.3
Florida Int’l.	77.3	77.9	78.5	77.9
Old Dominion	74.6	75.3	75.2	75.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	99.0	99.6	99.4	99.3
U A B	98.9	99.2	99.3	99.1
Louisiana Tech	87.7	88.1	86.5	87.4
U T E P	83.2	84.2	82.4	83.3
Rice	79.4	79.3	79.2	79.3
North Texas	79.5	79.3	78.9	79.2
Southern Miss.	77.7	78.4	77.7	78.0
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	86.1	86.0
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	113.0	113.6	114.4	113.7
BYU	107.7	107.0	107.7	107.5
Liberty	102.8	103.5	103.8	103.4
Army	100.7	100.8	100.6	100.7
New Mexico St.	71.6	72.3	69.8	71.2
UMass	72.4	71.8	69.5	71.2
Connecticut	70.7	71.4	68.5	70.2
Indep. Averages	91.3	91.5	90.6	91.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	98.8	96.8	95.8	97.1
Buffalo	93.7	92.8	92.6	93.0
Kent St.	90.6	91.8	89.9	90.8
Ohio	86.3	87.3	87.1	86.9
Akron	78.4	76.9	75.9	77.0
Bowling Green	75.5	76.0	74.0	75.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ball St.	97.6	97.6	95.7	97.0
Western Michigan	96.2	96.8	95.6	96.2
Toledo	96.4	95.8	95.0	95.7
Central Michigan	96.6	95.3	95.0	95.6
Eastern Michigan	94.6	92.9	91.6	93.0
Northern Illinois	89.4	87.9	87.2	88.2
MAC Averages	91.2	90.7	89.6	90.5
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.2	103.0	103.8	103.4
Air Force	101.3	101.7	102.5	101.8
Wyoming	95.1	95.5	95.9	95.5
Colorado St.	94.8	95.0	95.4	95.1
Utah St.	90.2	91.0	90.2	90.5
New Mexico	79.3	79.4	77.9	78.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	101.2	102.6	103.4	102.4
San Diego St.	102.1	101.5	101.4	101.7
Nevada	100.9	102.3	101.4	101.5
San Jose St.	94.4	94.4	92.9	93.9
Hawaii	93.7	93.4	93.5	93.6
U N L V	85.6	84.8	85.3	85.2
MWC Averages	95.1	95.4	95.3	95.3
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.1	112.1	112.9	112.0
Oregon St.	110.1	110.1	110.4	110.2
Washington	107.4	108.7	108.8	108.3
Stanford	104.3	105.1	104.3	104.6
Washington St.	101.4	102.5	101.9	101.9
California	97.1	100.9	99.8	99.2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	114.6	114.7	114.7	114.7
Arizona St.	113.3	113.9	114.0	113.7
U S C	112.4	112.3	113.3	112.7
U C L A	109.8	110.4	110.7	110.3
Colorado	102.0	101.6	101.2	101.6
Arizona	88.9	88.3	88.2	88.5
Pac-12 Averages	106.0	106.7	106.7	106.5
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	134.0	134.2	135.3	134.5
Florida	116.2	117.5	116.8	116.8
Kentucky	111.7	113.4	112.8	112.6
Tennessee	109.0	108.7	109.2	109.0
Missouri	100.2	100.5	99.5	100.1
South Carolina	98.5	98.1	97.5	98.0
Vanderbilt	82.3	81.7	81.2	81.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.4	130.7	132.2	131.4
Texas A&M	117.0	117.7	117.4	117.4
Auburn	117.2	116.5	117.5	117.1
Ole Miss	116.9	116.7	117.0	116.9
Arkansas	113.0	112.9	112.5	112.8
L S U	109.9	110.9	110.9	110.6
Mississippi St.	106.5	106.5	106.1	106.4
SEC Averages	111.7	111.9	111.9	111.8
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	113.0	111.2	113.1	112.5
Appalachian St.	102.5	102.0	104.0	102.8
Georgia St.	94.2	93.5	93.8	93.8
Troy	91.4	91.6	91.5	91.5
Georgia Southern	86.1	86.4	85.7	86.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.4	107.8	109.5	108.9
South Alabama	93.6	93.5	92.9	93.3
Arkansas St.	83.9	84.3	83.0	83.7
Texas St.	84.5	82.7	83.0	83.4
UL-Monroe	77.9	78.1	76.5	77.5
Sun Averages	93.6	93.1	93.3	93.4

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.8
2	Big 12	109.7
3	Big Ten	108.3
4	Pac-12	106.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American Athletic	97.1
7	Mountain West	95.3
8	Sun Belt	93.4
9	Independents	91.1
10	Mid-American	90.5
11	Conference USA	86.0

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	UTSA	Northern Illinois
Cure	Memphis	Appalachian St.
Boca	Florida Atlantic	Liberty
New Mexico	UTEP	Air Force
Independence	BYU	UAB
Lending Tree	Central Michigan	Coastal Carolina
L. A.	San Diego St.	Washington St.
New Orleans	Charlotte	Louisiana
Myrtle Beach	Tulsa	Troy
Famous Idaho Potato	Toledo	Utah St.
Frisco	Western Kentucky	Miami (O)
Armed Forces	Army	Marshall
Gasparilla	Boston College	Middle Tennessee
Hawaii	Central Florida	Nevada
Camellia	Eastern Michigan	UL-Monroe
Quick Lane	Ball St.	Northwestern
Military	Maryland	East Carolina
Birmingham	Kent St.	Washington
First Responder	SMU	Wyoming
Liberty	TCU	Arkansas
Holiday	Virginia Tech	Oregon St.
Guaranteed Rate	Purdue	Texas Tech
Fenway	Houston	Clemson
Pinstripe	Virginia	Minnesota
Cheez-It	Notre Dame	Baylor
Alamo	Iowa St.	UCLA
Duke’s Mayo	North Carolina St.	Tennessee
Music City	Wisconsin	Kansas St.
Las Vegas	Penn St.	Oregon
Tax Slayer Gator	Wake Forest	LSU
Tony The Tiger Sun	North Carolina	USC
Arizona	Western Michigan	Fresno St.
Citrus	Michigan	Florida
Outback	Iowa	Auburn
Texas	Texas	Texas A&M
Peach	Ole Miss	Pittsburgh
Fiesta	Arizona St.	Kentucky
Rose	Michigan St.	Utah
Sugar	Alabama	Oklahoma St.
Cotton	Oklahoma	Cincinnati
Orange	Georgia	Ohio St.
Championship	Georgia	Oklahoma

PiRate Ratings College Football–October 7-9, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulane	Houston	-4.6	-4.9	-4.0
Arkansas St.	Coastal Carolina	-26.7	-23.6	-27.4
Cincinnati	Temple	43.0	41.0	43.9
Florida Int’l.	Charlotte	-0.3	-0.7	-0.5
Arizona St.	Stanford	12.6	12.4	13.3
North Carolina	Florida St.	17.8	18.2	20.2
Rutgers	Michigan St.	-8.0	-5.5	-6.6
Massachusetts	Connecticut	0.4	-1.4	-0.9
Syracuse	Wake Forest	-11.1	-10.2	-11.9
Central Florida	East Carolina	5.6	5.0	6.1
Ohio St.	Maryland	17.7	19.0	21.6
Bowling Green	Akron	3.3	5.7	5.0
Toledo	Northern Illinois	11.3	12.7	12.5
Kent St.	Buffalo	-0.3	2.2	-0.2
Duke	Georgia Tech	-6.7	-5.9	-7.7
Western Michigan	Ball St.	4.5	5.3	6.4
Liberty	Middle Tennessee	22.8	23.9	23.1
Louisville	Virginia	1.6	0.0	3.0
Air Force	Wyoming	5.1	4.8	4.9
BYU	Boise St.	9.8	9.6	9.8
Marshall	Old Dominion	22.6	21.6	22.5
Colorado St.	San Jose St.	-3.0	-2.9	-0.5
USC	Utah	7.4	7.5	9.2
Washington St.	Oregon St.	-9.3	-8.2	-9.6
Tennessee	South Carolina	9.0	8.7	9.5
Navy	SMU	-12.2	-13.6	-13.2
Texas Tech	TCU	-5.8	-4.0	-5.7
Auburn	Georgia	-14.6	-15.5	-16.1
Kentucky	LSU	-0.2	0.8	-0.8
Baylor	West Virginia	-1.0	0.2	0.3
Missouri	North Texas	25.0	25.7	25.3
Texas St.	South Alabama	-6.0	-8.2	-7.3
UAB	Florida Atlantic	5.7	3.8	4.5
Florida	Vanderbilt	38.6	40.8	40.5
Tulsa	Memphis	5.0	4.2	3.4
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia St.	-11.9	-11.1	-13.5
Illinois	Wisconsin	-10.3	-10.0	-11.3
Eastern Michigan	Miami (O)	-2.8	-2.5	-3.3
Texas (N)	Oklahoma	-4.9	-4.1	-3.7
Nebraska	Michigan	0.0	-0.6	-0.5
Troy	Georgia Southern	5.3	5.3	6.1
Ohio U	Central Michigan	-9.3	-6.8	-7.3
Texas A&M	Alabama	-14.3	-12.8	-15.3
Ole Miss	Arkansas	6.0	5.9	7.0
Southern Miss.	UTEP	5.8	6.2	7.8
Western Kentucky	UTSA	-7.3	-6.2	-5.9
Iowa	Penn St.	6.0	4.4	4.6
Virginia Tech	Notre Dame	-2.1	-4.2	-5.1
Arizona	UCLA	-14.3	-15.2	-15.2
San Diego St.	New Mexico	24.0	23.3	25.0
Nevada	New Mexico St.	32.4	33.1	34.5

28 Teams Off This Week!

Appalachian St.

Army

Boston College

California

Clemson

Colorado

Fresno St.

Hawaii

Indiana

Iowa St.

Kansas

Kansas St.

Louisiana

Louisiana Tech

Miami (Fla.)

Minnesota

Mississippi St.

North Carolina St.

Northwestern

Oklahoma St.

Oregon

Pittsburgh

Purdue

Rice

South Florida

UNLV

Utah St.

Washington

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	134.4
2	Alabama	131.1
3	Oklahoma	123.4
4	Ohio St.	122.8
5	Cincinnati	121.5
6	Iowa St.	120.5
7	Iowa	119.7
8	Texas	119.1
9	Florida	118.3
10	Penn St.	117.7
11	Ole Miss	117.2
12	Clemson	117.2
13	Auburn	116.0
14	U S C	115.2
15	Arizona St.	114.9
16	North Carolina	114.1
17	Texas A&M	114.0
18	Michigan	113.9
19	Arkansas	113.9
20	Notre Dame	113.4
21	Oregon	112.5
22	L S U	112.2
23	Coastal Carolina	111.8
24	West Virginia	111.8
25	Oregon St.	111.8
26	T C U	111.5
27	Oklahoma St.	110.7
28	Nebraska	110.6
29	Wake Forest	110.2
30	Utah	110.1
31	BYU	109.9
32	Miami (Fla.)	109.5
33	U C L A	109.5
34	Kentucky	109.2
35	Baylor	108.6
36	Washington	108.6
37	Wisconsin	108.5
38	Michigan St.	108.4
39	Mississippi St.	108.4
40	NC State	108.0
41	Indiana	107.5
42	Tennessee	107.2
43	Liberty	107.1
44	Kansas St.	107.0
45	Virginia Tech	106.6
46	Maryland	106.4
47	Louisiana	106.1
48	Minnesota	105.9
49	Pittsburgh	105.5
50	Boston College	105.5
51	Stanford	105.1
52	Purdue	105.0
53	Appalachian St.	105.0
54	Virginia	104.6
55	Texas Tech	103.3
56	Boise St.	103.2
57	Louisville	103.1
58	Houston	103.0
59	SMU	102.6
60	Missouri	102.5
61	San Diego St.	102.0
62	Nevada	101.2
63	South Carolina	101.1
64	Fresno St.	100.3
65	UCF	100.3
66	Army	100.2
67	Air Force	100.1
68	Georgia Tech	99.8
69	Washington St.	99.8
70	Colorado	99.4
71	Rutgers	98.7
72	Miami (Ohio)	98.5
73	Florida St.	98.4
74	California	98.1
75	Wyoming	98.1
76	East Carolina	97.7
77	Toledo	97.1
78	U T S A	96.9
79	Northwestern	96.8
80	Central Michigan	96.3
81	Western Michigan	96.2
82	Syracuse	96.1
83	Tulane	96.0
84	San Jose St.	96.0
85	U A B	95.9
86	Illinois	95.5
87	Buffalo	95.4
88	Tulsa	95.2
89	Marshall	94.6
90	Florida Atlantic	93.7
91	Hawaii	93.6
92	Memphis	93.5
93	Kent St.	93.4
94	Ball St.	93.3
95	Eastern Michigan	93.0
96	South Alabama	91.9
97	Troy	91.8
98	Arizona	91.6
99	Georgia St.	91.4
100	Colorado St.	90.9
101	Duke	90.6
102	Utah St.	90.2
103	Louisiana Tech	89.5
104	Georgia Southern	88.7
105	USF	88.6
106	Western Kentucky	87.9
107	Northern Illinois	87.4
108	Navy	87.0
109	Middle Tennessee	86.8
110	Ohio	85.9
111	U N L V	85.1
112	Arkansas St.	83.9
113	Southern Miss.	83.0
114	Texas St.	82.7
115	Rice	82.1
116	Charlotte	81.9
117	Temple	81.8
118	Vanderbilt	81.4
119	New Mexico	80.9
120	North Texas	80.2
121	Kansas	79.9
122	Florida Int’l.	78.9
123	U T E P	78.4
124	Bowling Green	77.3
125	UL-Monroe	76.7
126	Old Dominion	74.9
127	Akron	74.1
128	Connecticut	71.8
129	New Mexico St.	70.8
130	UMass	69.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	121.0	120.5	123.0	121.5
Houston	103.3	102.2	103.6	103.0
SMU	102.0	102.7	103.0	102.6
UCF	100.2	99.0	101.8	100.3
East Carolina	97.6	97.0	98.6	97.7
Tulane	96.2	94.8	97.0	96.0
Tulsa	95.4	95.3	94.9	95.2
Memphis	92.9	93.5	94.1	93.5
USF	88.9	88.2	88.8	88.6
Navy	87.3	86.6	87.3	87.0
Temple	81.0	82.5	82.0	81.8
AAC Averages	96.9	96.6	97.6	97.0

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	116.5	116.6	118.4	117.2
Wake Forest	110.3	109.6	110.7	110.2
NC State	108.3	107.7	107.9	108.0
Boston College	105.1	105.6	105.7	105.5
Louisville	102.7	102.4	104.3	103.1
Florida St.	98.4	98.4	98.3	98.4
Syracuse	96.3	96.4	95.8	96.1
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	113.2	113.6	115.5	114.1
Miami (Fla.)	110.0	108.9	109.8	109.5
Virginia Tech	107.5	106.2	106.2	106.6
Pittsburgh	105.2	106.0	105.4	105.5
Virginia	104.1	105.4	104.3	104.6
Georgia Tech	99.8	99.9	99.8	99.8
Duke	90.6	91.5	89.6	90.6
ACC Averages	104.8	104.9	105.1	104.9

Big 12 Conference

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	124.7	122.4	123.0	123.4
Iowa St.	121.1	119.5	120.9	120.5
Texas	119.8	118.3	119.3	119.1
West Virginia	113.3	111.5	110.6	111.8
T C U	112.1	110.8	111.5	111.5
Oklahoma St.	111.0	110.8	110.2	110.7
Baylor	109.3	108.7	107.9	108.6
Kansas St.	107.3	107.2	106.5	107.0
Texas Tech	103.3	103.8	102.8	103.3
Kansas	82.4	80.0	77.3	79.9
Big 12 Averages	110.4	109.3	109.0	109.6

Big Ten Conference

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	122.3	122.2	124.0	122.8
Penn St.	116.4	117.4	119.2	117.7
Michigan	113.2	114.2	114.4	113.9
Michigan St.	108.7	108.4	108.2	108.4
Indiana	107.3	107.1	108.1	107.5
Maryland	107.6	106.2	105.4	106.4
Rutgers	97.6	99.9	98.5	98.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	119.4	118.9	120.8	119.7
Nebraska	110.2	110.6	110.9	110.6
Wisconsin	108.0	107.9	109.5	108.5
Minnesota	104.9	105.8	107.0	105.9
Purdue	104.6	104.2	106.3	105.0
Northwestern	96.9	97.0	96.6	96.8
Illinois	95.2	95.4	95.8	95.5
Big Ten Averages	108.0	108.3	108.9	108.4

Conference USA

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	94.5	94.3	95.1	94.6
Florida Atlantic	92.8	94.4	94.0	93.7
Western Kentucky	86.9	88.5	88.3	87.9
Middle Tennessee	86.5	86.4	87.6	86.8
Charlotte	81.0	82.0	82.6	81.9
Florida Int’l.	78.2	78.9	79.6	78.9
Old Dominion	74.4	75.2	75.0	74.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	96.7	97.2	96.8	96.9
U A B	96.0	95.8	95.9	95.9
Louisiana Tech	89.7	90.2	88.7	89.5
Southern Miss.	82.4	83.5	83.0	83.0
Rice	82.1	82.0	82.1	82.1
North Texas	80.5	80.3	79.8	80.2
U T E P	78.6	79.3	77.2	78.4
CUSA Averages	85.7	86.3	86.1	86.0

Independents

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.6	113.4	114.3	113.4
BYU	109.9	109.4	110.4	109.9
Liberty	106.3	107.2	107.7	107.1
Army	100.3	100.3	99.9	100.2
Connecticut	72.1	73.1	70.2	71.8
New Mexico St.	71.2	71.9	69.4	70.8
UMass	71.0	70.1	67.8	69.6

Mid-American Conference

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	100.0	98.0	97.4	98.5
Buffalo	96.0	95.0	95.1	95.4
Kent St.	93.2	94.6	92.5	93.4
Ohio	85.3	86.5	86.0	85.9
Bowling Green	77.5	78.2	76.1	77.3
Akron	75.7	74.0	72.7	74.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	97.6	97.2	96.4	97.1
Central Michigan	97.2	95.8	95.8	96.3
Western Michigan	96.1	96.7	95.7	96.2
Ball St.	94.1	94.0	91.8	93.3
Eastern Michigan	94.7	92.9	91.5	93.0
Northern Illinois	88.7	87.0	86.4	87.4
MAC Averages	91.3	90.8	89.8	90.7

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.1	102.8	103.6	103.2
Air Force	99.7	100.0	100.6	100.1
Wyoming	97.6	98.1	98.7	98.1
Colorado St.	90.7	90.7	91.3	90.9
Utah St.	89.9	90.8	89.9	90.2
New Mexico	81.3	81.5	79.9	80.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	102.3	101.8	101.9	102.0
Nevada	100.6	102.0	100.9	101.2
Fresno St.	99.2	100.6	101.3	100.3
San Jose St.	96.6	96.6	94.8	96.0
Hawaii	93.7	93.4	93.7	93.6
U N L V	85.5	84.6	85.2	85.1
MWC Averages	95.0	95.2	95.1	95.1

Pac-12 Conference

North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.6	112.5	113.5	112.5
Oregon St.	111.6	111.6	112.1	111.8
Washington	107.5	109.0	109.2	108.6
Stanford	104.7	105.7	105.0	105.1
Washington St.	99.4	100.4	99.5	99.8
California	96.0	99.9	98.6	98.1
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	114.7	114.7	116.0	115.2
Arizona St.	114.4	115.1	115.3	114.9
Utah	110.4	110.2	109.8	110.1
U C L A	109.2	109.6	109.7	109.5
Colorado	99.9	99.4	98.9	99.4
Arizona	91.9	91.4	91.5	91.6
Pac-12 Averages	105.9	106.6	106.6	106.4

Southeastern Conference

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	133.9	134.0	135.5	134.4
Florida	117.6	119.1	118.3	118.3
Kentucky	108.4	110.2	108.9	109.2
Tennessee	107.3	106.9	107.3	107.2
Missouri	102.5	103.0	102.1	102.5
South Carolina	101.4	101.2	100.8	101.1
Vanderbilt	82.0	81.3	80.8	81.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.1	130.2	132.1	131.1
Ole Miss	117.1	117.0	117.5	117.2
Auburn	116.3	115.4	116.4	116.0
Texas A&M	113.8	114.4	113.8	114.0
Arkansas	114.1	114.1	113.5	113.9
L S U	111.6	112.4	112.7	112.2
Mississippi St.	108.4	108.6	108.1	108.4
SEC Averages	111.8	112.0	112.0	111.9

Sun Belt Conference

East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	112.5	110.3	112.5	111.8
Appalachian St.	104.5	104.2	106.3	105.0
Troy	91.5	91.9	92.0	91.8
Georgia St.	91.8	91.0	91.4	91.4
Georgia Southern	88.7	89.1	88.4	88.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	106.8	105.0	106.6	106.1
South Alabama	92.1	92.1	91.4	91.9
Arkansas St.	83.9	84.7	83.1	83.9
Texas St.	84.1	81.9	82.1	82.7
UL-Monroe	77.3	77.4	75.4	76.7
Sun Averages	93.3	92.8	92.9	93.0

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.9
2	Big 12	109.6
3	Big Ten	108.4
4	Pac-12	106.4
5	Atlantic Coast	104.9
6	American Athletic	97.0
7	Mountain West	95.1
8	Sun Belt	93.0
9	Independents	91.8
10	Mid-American	90.7
11	Conference USA	86.0

PiRate Ratings Commence Bowl Projections Today

With one month of play in the books, it is time to begin issuing our Bowl Projections. This is starting to look like a fractured college football season. The Atlantic Coast Conference and Pac-12 Conference have basically been eliminated from Playoff contention. In the Big 12, Oklahoma looks anything like a Playoff team, and Ohio State’s loss at home to Oregon now looks much worse with Oregon losing to Stanford.

Meanwhile, the SEC has two super teams that should be co-number ones. Alabama and Georgia might finish the regular season as the top two seeds even though one team must lose a game in the SEC Championship Game.

Cincinnati’s road win over Notre Dame is enough for now to put them in the Field of Four, but only if either the Big 12 or Big Ten champions have a loss. The Bearcats still have some tough conference opposition to conquer in SMU and Houston.

The Redbox Bowl has already cancelled their 2021 game, and that leaves spots for 82 teams in the postseason. As of today, we count 85 teams that are on pace of a minimum of six wins. The 6-6 line has a large number of teams.

Here is our first stab at the projections for 2021-22. Unlike recent years, there is a lot more wiggle room for different conferences to appear in multiple bowls.

Bowl	Team	Team
Bahamas	UTSA	Toledo
Cure	Liberty	Marshall
Boca	Florida Atlantic	Coastal Carolina
New Mexico	UTEP	Wyoming
Independence	BYU	Louisiana Tech
Lending Tree	Western Michigan	Troy
L. A.	San Jose St.	Arizona St.
New Orleans	UAB	Louisiana
Myrtle Beach	Appalachian St.	Northern Illinois
Famous Idaho Potato	Kent St.	Boise St.
Frisco	Memphis	Utah St.
Armed Forces	Army	Washington
Gasparilla	East Carolina	Iowa St.
Hawaii	Houston	Nevada
Camellia	Miami (O)	South Alabama
Quick Lane	Ball St.	Western Kentucky
Military	Virginia Tech	Central Florida
Birmingham	Miami (Fla.)	Mississippi St.
First Responder	TCU	Fresno St.
Liberty	Kansas St.	Arkansas
Holiday	North Carolina	Utah
Guaranteed Rate	Air Force	Baylor
Fenway	Boston College	SMU
Pinstripe	Pittsburgh	Indiana
Cheez-It	Wake Forest	Texas
Alamo	Oklahoma St.	Stanford
Duke’s Mayo	North Carolina St.	Auburn
Music City	Minnesota	Tennessee
Las Vegas	Wisconsin	USC
Tax Slayer Gator	Virginia	LSU
Tony The Tiger Sun	Louisville	UCLA
Arizona	Central Michigan	San Diego St.
Citrus	Michigan	Ole Miss
Outback	Michigan St.	Florida
Texas	Texas Tech	Texas A&M
Peach	Clemson	Penn St.
Fiesta	Oregon	Notre Dame
Rose	Ohio St.	Oregon St.
Sugar	Kentucky	Oklahoma
Cotton	Iowa	Alabama
Orange	Georgia	Cincinnati
Championship	Georgia	Alabama

This Week’s TV Fare

This week presents fewer total games, as we mentioned early that 28 teams have bye weeks. There are a handful of important and exciting games on the schedule, but this may be the week to watch the Major League Baseball Playoffs more than college football.

Saturday, October 9
Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
12:00 PM	ABC	Texas (n)	Oklahoma
	Fox	Ohio St.	Maryland
	ESPN	Ole Miss	Arkansas
	ESPN2	Tennessee	South Carolina
	FS1	Baylor	West Virginia
	CBSSN	Toledo	Northern Illinois
	BTN	Rutgers	Michigan St.
	SEC	Florida	Vanderbilt
3:00 PM	ACC	Louisville	Virginia
3:30 PM	CBS	Auburn	Georgia
	ABC	BYU	Boise St.
	ESPN	North Carolina	Florida St.
	ESPN2	Syracuse	Wake Forest
	FS1	Colorado St.	San Jose St.
	CBSSN	Navy	SMU
	BTN	Illinois	Wisconsin
4:00 PM	Fox	Iowa	Penn St.
	SEC	Missouri	North Texas
	Pac-12	Washington St.	Oregon St.
7:00 PM	ESPN	Texas Tech	TCU
	ESPNU	Kent St.	Buffalo
	CBSSN	Air Force	Wyoming
7:30 PM	ABC	Nebraska	Michigan
	SEC	Kentucky	LSU
	ACC	Virginia Tech	Notre Dame
8:00 PM	CBS	Texas A&M	Alabama
	FOX	USC	Utah
	FS1	San Diego St.	New Mexico
9:00 PM	ESPN2	Tulsa	Memphis
10:30 PM	ESPN	Arizona	UCLA
	CBSSN	Nevada	New Mexico St.

PiRate Ratings College Football, September 7, 2021

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Coastal Carolina	Kansas	25.3	25.0	31.4
Boise St.	UTEP	28.6	26.8	30.8
Virginia	Illinois	10.3	11.9	9.3
Army	Western Kentucky	23.5	21.5	22.8
Ohio St.	Oregon	14.4	13.3	13.6
Massachusetts	Boston College	-31.1	-32.5	-36.3
South Florida	Florida	-25.7	-29.3	-27.2
Tennessee	Pittsburgh	5.3	3.5	5.3
East Carolina	South Carolina	-5.7	-6.8	-4.2
Florida Atlantic	Georgia Southern	-0.1	1.6	1.7
Minnesota	Miami (O)	8.6	12.8	15.3
Oklahoma St.	Tulsa	16.0	15.6	15.4
Northern Illinois	Wyoming	-2.8	-5.7	-7.4
Syracuse	Rutgers	0.0	-2.6	-1.7
Virginia Tech	Middle Tennessee	25.6	24.8	23.0
New Mexico	New Mexico St.	18.4	18.1	20.2
Notre Dame	Toledo	13.9	16.3	17.7
Connecticut	Purdue	-29.1	-27.4	-33.2
Navy	Air Force	-5.8	-6.5	-6.8
Penn St.	Ball St.	19.1	20.4	25.0
Akron	Temple	6.1	2.2	1.4
Georgia	UAB	31.3	31.4	33.6
TCU	California	24.6	18.6	21.4
Nebraska	Buffalo	6.2	7.8	7.1
Iowa St.	Iowa	8.1	6.9	6.0
Colorado (d)	Texas A&M	-9.7	-11.5	-12.2
Bowling Green	South Alabama	-18.6	-18.5	-20.5
Rice	Houston	-10.5	-8.8	-10.3
Miami (Fla.)	Appalachian St.	16.8	16.1	15.2
Florida Int’l.	Texas St.	-7.9	-4.5	-3.8
Mississippi St.	North Carolina St.	1.0	1.8	0.6
Wisconsin	Eastern Michigan	24.1	25.9	29.3
SMU	North Texas	13.9	15.4	15.6
Troy	Liberty	-7.7	-8.7	-9.4
Arkansas St.	Memphis	-0.4	0.4	-3.3
Arkansas	Texas	-5.2	-3.3	-6.0
Kentucky	Missouri	3.9	5.2	3.9
North Carolina	Georgia St.	24.4	25.3	28.4
Michigan	Washington	2.3	1.7	1.5
Colorado St.	Vanderbilt	1.5	2.6	3.4
Arizona	San Diego St.	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0
BYU	Utah	-0.8	-2.1	-0.1
Arizona St.	UNLV	28.9	31.5	31.3
USC	Stanford	20.9	19.6	23.3
Oregon St.	Hawaii	15.2	15.8	15.7
(d) CU-A&M game	played in Denver

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	132.7
2	Georgia	125.8
3	Oklahoma	125.4
4	Iowa St.	122.1
5	Ohio St.	121.9
6	Clemson	121.6
7	U S C	119.8
8	Cincinnati	119.2
9	Texas A&M	118.3
10	Auburn	117.8
11	Florida	117.1
12	Texas	117.0
13	Iowa	116.6
14	North Carolina	116.3
15	T C U	116.0
16	Miami (Fla.)	114.9
17	Penn St.	114.9
18	Wisconsin	114.6
19	Ole Miss	113.8
20	U C L A	113.0
21	Arizona St.	112.1
22	Indiana	112.1
23	Utah	111.9
24	L S U	111.6
25	West Virginia	111.4
26	Oklahoma St.	111.3
27	Oregon	111.1
28	Notre Dame	109.9
29	Arkansas	109.2
30	NC State	109.1
31	Coastal Carolina	108.9
32	BYU	108.9
33	Maryland	108.4
34	Louisiana	108.1
35	Washington	108.1
36	Kentucky	107.8
37	Wake Forest	107.3
38	Mississippi St.	107.3
39	Virginia Tech	107.2
40	Michigan	106.9
41	Minnesota	106.6
42	Liberty	106.5
43	Missouri	106.5
44	Boston College	106.4
45	Michigan St.	106.0
46	Oregon St.	106.0
47	Kansas St.	105.8
48	Colorado	105.7
49	Purdue	104.6
50	Baylor	104.1
51	Texas Tech	104.0
52	Army	103.8
53	Florida St.	103.8
54	Tennessee	103.7
55	Virginia	103.7
56	Boise St.	103.5
57	UCF	103.5
58	Nebraska	103.5
59	Northwestern	102.8
60	Tulane	102.2
61	South Carolina	102.0
62	Pittsburgh	102.0
63	Appalachian St.	101.9
64	Louisville	101.6
65	Stanford	101.5
66	San Jose St.	100.4
67	Nevada	100.1
68	Central Michigan	99.7
69	Rutgers	99.6
70	Washington St.	99.6
71	Buffalo	99.5
72	San Diego St.	98.9
73	Houston	98.6
74	Fresno St.	98.1
75	California	97.4
76	Miami (Ohio)	97.4
77	Wyoming	97.3
78	Tulsa	97.1
79	Toledo	97.0
80	Marshall	96.7
81	U A B	96.7
82	Georgia Tech	96.6
83	SMU	96.5
84	Ball St.	96.4
85	Illinois	96.2
86	U T S A	95.9
87	Air Force	95.7
88	Syracuse	95.7
89	Troy	95.4
90	Arizona	94.9
91	East Carolina	94.4
92	Memphis	93.5
93	Hawaii	93.4
94	Georgia St.	93.2
95	South Alabama	92.8
96	Kent St.	91.5
97	Eastern Michigan	91.2
98	Ohio	90.8
99	Arkansas St.	90.4
100	Georgia Southern	90.2
101	Northern Illinois	89.0
102	Western Michigan	89.0
103	Louisiana Tech	89.0
104	Utah St.	89.0
105	Florida Atlantic	88.8
106	Duke	88.3
107	Texas St.	88.2
108	Rice	87.7
109	USF	87.7
110	Vanderbilt	86.6
111	Navy	86.3
112	Colorado St.	86.2
113	Middle Tennessee	85.7
114	New Mexico	85.5
115	Kansas	84.7
116	U N L V	84.6
117	Western Kentucky	84.2
118	North Texas	83.0
119	Southern Miss.	82.8
120	Charlotte	80.7
121	Florida Int’l.	80.3
122	Akron	78.5
123	U T E P	77.8
124	Temple	77.3
125	UL-Monroe	75.6
126	Connecticut	72.7
127	Old Dominion	71.8
128	UMass	71.6
129	Bowling Green	71.1
130	New Mexico St.	68.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	119.0	118.0	120.6	119.2
UCF	103.1	102.0	105.4	103.5
Tulane	102.0	100.7	103.8	102.2
Houston	99.1	97.5	99.2	98.6
Tulsa	97.2	97.3	96.7	97.1
SMU	95.8	96.9	96.9	96.5
East Carolina	94.5	93.4	95.3	94.4
Memphis	92.7	93.1	94.6	93.5
USF	88.3	87.0	87.7	87.7
Navy	86.8	86.0	86.3	86.3
Temple	76.4	78.1	77.4	77.3
AAC Averages	95.9	95.5	96.7	96.0
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.5	120.9	123.2	121.6
NC State	109.5	108.8	109.1	109.1
Wake Forest	107.7	106.5	107.8	107.3
Boston College	105.9	106.5	106.9	106.4
Florida St.	103.5	103.9	103.9	103.8
Louisville	101.3	100.9	102.5	101.6
Syracuse	96.2	95.9	95.1	95.7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	115.2	115.3	118.3	116.3
Miami (Fla.)	115.2	114.0	115.6	114.9
Virginia Tech	108.1	106.8	106.8	107.2
Virginia	103.1	105.1	102.8	103.7
Pittsburgh	101.6	102.7	101.8	102.0
Georgia Tech	96.7	96.7	96.5	96.6
Duke	88.3	89.6	87.1	88.3
ACC Averages	105.2	105.3	105.5	105.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	126.6	124.0	125.5	125.4
Iowa St.	122.6	120.8	122.9	122.1
Texas	118.0	115.9	117.2	117.0
T C U	116.6	115.1	116.3	116.0
West Virginia	113.0	111.1	110.1	111.4
Oklahoma St.	111.7	111.4	110.7	111.3
Kansas St.	106.2	106.2	105.1	105.8
Baylor	104.7	104.3	103.3	104.1
Texas Tech	104.0	104.8	103.2	104.0
Kansas	87.4	84.9	81.8	84.7
Big 12 Averages	111.1	109.8	109.6	110.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Penn St.	113.5	114.6	116.5	114.9
Indiana	111.7	111.6	113.0	112.1
Maryland	109.8	108.1	107.1	108.4
Michigan	106.2	107.1	107.3	106.9
Michigan St.	106.4	106.0	105.7	106.0
Rutgers	98.6	100.9	99.3	99.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	116.0	115.5	118.4	116.6
Wisconsin	113.9	113.9	115.9	114.6
Minnesota	105.1	106.6	108.1	106.6
Purdue	104.4	103.8	105.6	104.6
Nebraska	103.2	103.7	103.5	103.5
Northwestern	102.9	102.8	102.6	102.8
Illinois	95.8	96.2	96.6	96.2
Big Ten Averages	107.8	108.0	108.8	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	96.7	96.7	96.9	96.7
Florida Atlantic	87.7	89.7	89.0	88.8
Middle Tennessee	85.4	85.1	86.7	85.7
Western Kentucky	83.2	85.1	84.3	84.2
Charlotte	79.9	80.9	81.3	80.7
Florida Int’l.	79.2	80.2	81.4	80.3
Old Dominion	71.5	72.1	71.7	71.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	96.9	96.7	96.4	96.7
U T S A	95.8	96.4	95.5	95.9
Louisiana Tech	89.3	89.9	87.9	89.0
Rice	87.6	87.7	87.9	87.7
North Texas	83.4	83.0	82.7	83.0
Southern Miss.	82.0	83.6	82.8	82.8
U T E P	78.0	79.0	76.2	77.8
CUSA Averages	85.5	86.1	85.8	85.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.7	110.3	110.8	109.9
BYU	109.0	108.0	109.7	108.9
Liberty	105.3	106.6	107.5	106.5
Army	103.7	103.6	104.1	103.8
Connecticut	73.3	74.5	70.4	72.7
UMass	73.3	72.5	69.1	71.6
New Mexico St.	69.2	69.9	66.8	68.6
Indep. Averages	91.8	92.2	91.2	91.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Buffalo	100.0	99.0	99.4	99.5
Miami (Ohio)	99.5	96.8	95.8	97.4
Kent St.	91.1	93.0	90.5	91.5
Ohio	89.7	91.6	91.0	90.8
Akron	80.5	78.3	76.9	78.5
Bowling Green	71.8	72.1	69.3	71.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.4	99.1	99.5	99.7
Toledo	97.8	97.0	96.1	97.0
Ball St.	97.4	97.3	94.5	96.4
Eastern Michigan	92.9	91.0	89.6	91.2
Northern Illinois	90.6	88.6	87.9	89.0
Western Michigan	89.3	89.6	88.1	89.0
MAC Averages	91.7	91.1	89.9	90.9
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.6	102.8	104.0	103.5
Wyoming	96.5	97.2	98.3	97.3
Air Force	95.6	95.5	96.1	95.7
Utah St.	88.7	89.8	88.5	89.0
Colorado St.	86.0	86.0	86.5	86.2
New Mexico	85.6	86.0	85.0	85.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	100.9	101.0	99.4	100.4
Nevada	99.4	101.0	99.8	100.1
San Diego St.	99.4	98.7	98.6	98.9
Fresno St.	96.4	98.5	99.4	98.1
Hawaii	93.7	93.0	93.4	93.4
U N L V	85.5	84.0	84.3	84.6
MWC Averages	94.3	94.5	94.4	94.4
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	109.8	111.1	112.6	111.1
Washington	106.9	108.4	108.9	108.1
Oregon St.	105.9	105.8	106.2	106.0
Stanford	101.3	102.4	100.8	101.5
Washington St.	99.5	100.3	99.1	99.6
California	95.0	99.5	97.9	97.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	119.2	119.0	121.0	119.8
U C L A	112.7	112.9	113.3	113.0
Arizona St.	111.4	112.5	112.6	112.1
Utah	111.8	112.1	111.8	111.9
Colorado	106.4	105.8	104.9	105.7
Arizona	95.4	94.7	94.6	94.9
Pac-12 Averages	106.3	107.0	107.0	106.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	125.2	125.1	127.1	125.8
Florida	116.0	118.3	116.9	117.1
Kentucky	107.2	109.1	107.1	107.8
Missouri	106.3	106.9	106.2	106.5
Tennessee	103.9	103.1	104.1	103.7
South Carolina	102.3	102.2	101.6	102.0
Vanderbilt	87.4	86.4	86.1	86.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	132.8	131.4	133.9	132.7
Texas A&M	117.6	118.7	118.6	118.3
Auburn	118.2	117.0	118.3	117.8
Ole Miss	113.7	113.8	113.9	113.8
L S U	110.7	111.9	112.2	111.6
Arkansas	109.8	109.6	108.2	109.2
Mississippi St.	107.5	107.6	106.7	107.3
SEC Averages	111.3	111.5	111.5	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
East Division	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.7	106.9	110.1	108.9
Appalachian St.	101.3	100.9	103.4	101.9
Troy	95.1	95.4	95.7	95.4
Georgia St.	93.8	92.9	92.9	93.2
Georgia Southern	90.3	90.7	89.8	90.2
West Division	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	108.8	106.5	109.1	108.1
South Alabama	92.9	93.1	92.3	92.8
Arkansas St.	90.3	91.5	89.3	90.4
Texas St.	89.6	87.2	87.7	88.2
UL-Monroe	76.2	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.8	94.2	94.4	94.5

Rating of Conferences

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.5
2	Big 12	110.2
3	Big Ten	108.2
4	Pac-12	106.8
5	Atlantic Coast	105.3
6	American Athletic	96.0
7	Sun Belt	94.5
8	Mountain West	94.4
9	Independents	91.7
10	Mid-American	90.9
11	Conference USA	85.8

What To Make Of Week 1

Alabama Football 2021 = UCLA Basketball 1967-1973

College basketball between 1967 and 1973 was all about one team against the rest. UCLA so dominated basketball in those years that their games were seldom entertaining to non-Bruins fans. They won games by scores such as 115-65, 114-56, and 82-43. They beat other top 10 teams by scores like 79-53, 73-57, and 96-77. In the rare occasion that they played the #1 team, when they were not ranked #1, they merely won 101-69 after leading by 44 points before putting in the scrubs.

Alabama football has reached that same point. Games are no longer entertaining unless you are a Crimson Tide fan. Coach Nick Saban has reached the same level as John Wooden. Last year, Alabama played a 10-game all SEC schedule plus two playoff games. Six of the 13 opponents were ranked, and ‘Bama won these six gamed by an average of three touchdowns per game. The Tide suffered heavy losses to the NFL Draft, including the Heisman Trophy winner and a 1st round picked quarterback. For any other program, 2021 would be a large rebuilding season. For Alabama, they simply plug in the next 1st round draft pick at QB, who after one career start is now the front-runner for this year’s Heisman Trophy. It’s just like Sidney Wicks replacing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the best player in the nation in 1969-70, and Bill Walton replacing Wicks in 1971-72.

Revenge Of The FCS

Six FCS teams beat FBS teams in Week One of the college football season. While South Dakota State beating Colorado State may not have been all that surprising, since SDSU is the Alabama of FCS, but when Washington lost at home to Montana, that shook the Power 5 Pac-12 to its foundation.

There are two reasons why these FCS teams were more competitive than normal. First, these FCS teams played football in the Spring. Most of these teams looked like they were in mid-season form, playing more like a Power 5 team in a postseason bowl. Also, with the free extra year given to all players by the NCAA, age tends to lead to parity. An outstanding 5-star 18-year old is light years better than a 3-star 18-year old. A 23-year old college football player most likely is a 3-star holdover, and he is little better than a 23-year old 2-star player at an FCS school.

An excellent case in point is the East Tennessee State slaughter over Vanderbilt. Everything possible was in place to forecast this 20-point blowout win over the SEC host. The Buccaneers played in the Spring and enjoyed an incredible year on the defensive side of the ball. Most of their two-deep returned. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt brought in a new coaching staff after the Commodores went 0-9 and had to use a female soccer player as their placekicker in their final two games. Numerous players left the team via the Transfer Portal, and the incoming coach made it known that he preferred not to sign players from that portal. The Commodores are a very youthful team lacking any real star players, while ETSU had one player in his late 20’s playing Saturday night. Thus, not only was the game an upset that finished 41 points different from the spread, it was obvious that ETSU dominated the Commodores. In some respect, men beat boys.

With all FBS teams now having a game under their belts, expect some of this FCS advantage to disappear each week until it is gone.

Must Watch Games This Week

12 Noon Eastern

Oregon visits the giant horseshoe to face Ohio State on Fox. The Ducks underperformed in a win over Fresno State, but it was obvious that they didn’t show the nation all their weapons. The Pac-12 suffered numerous black eyes, with the rest of the North Division losing their first games.

3:30 PM Eastern

Saturday is the 20th anniversary of the tragic bombings in New York and Washington, D.C. It is no coincidence that Air Force and Navy will play on CBS rather than their regular SEC game.

On ABC, Iowa visits Iowa State for the Cy-Hawk Trophy. The Cyclones were not impressive in their opener against Northern Iowa, but last year, Iowa State lost to Louisiana-Lafayette by 17 in their first game and then beat Oklahoma two weeks later. Iowa looked like the class of the Big Ten West when they trounced Indiana.

7:00 PM Eastern

Perhaps the game of the day comes from Fayetteville, Arkansas, where the Razorbacks will host long-time arch-rival Texas in a game that will soon become a regular affair once Texas joins the SEC (maybe in 2022). Neither team is the dominant top 10 team like they were many times in the 1960’s and 1970’s, but this should be an incredibly, hard-fought game between two 1-0 teams. Catch this game on ESPN.

Mississippi State hosts North Carolina State, and the ACC is suffering more than the Pac-12 after one week. The Wolfpack were one of two bright spots for the ACC, while the Bulldogs had to win on the final play over Louisiana Tech. This should be a close game, and the teams will fight tooth and nail to get to 2-0. This one is on ESPN2.

7:30 PM Eastern

Missouri visits Kentucky in a battle to determine which SEC East team will become the potential top challenger to Georgia, assuming Florida does not retain this position. Missouri had a pedestrian performance in a win over Central Michigan in week one. On the other hand, Kentucky unveiled a new offense led by former Rams’ assistant Laim Coen. Coen’s offense made Penn State transfer Will Levis look like Jared Goff of 2018. Can the Cats put up flashy numbers against an SEC opponent? Tune into this one on The SEC Network.

10:15 PM Eastern

The late games this week could be duds except for the Utah at BYU game in Provo. Aside from it being a rivalry game, both schools looked strong in week one wins. Catch this rivalry game on ESPN.

PiRate Ratings College Football For September 1-6, 2021

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Rutgers	Temple	15.6	15.9	14.6
Central Florida	Boise St.	2.1	1.4	3.9
Appalachian St. (n)	East Carolina	5.2	5.7	6.2
North Carolina St.	South Florida	18.5	19.1	18.3
Tennessee	Bowling Green	35.0	33.5	38.3
Minnesota	Ohio St.	-13.5	-12.2	-12.6
Virginia Tech	North Carolina	-5.5	-7.2	-10.8
Wake Forest	Old Dominion	38.6	36.6	38.9
Charlotte	Duke	-9.9	-10.5	-7.3
Northwestern	Michigan St.	4.3	4.8	5.3
Michigan	Western Michigan	15.0	15.5	17.2
Georgia St.	Army	-0.1	-0.6	-0.9
Kansas St. (n)	Stanford	2.6	1.1	1.5
Kentucky	Louisiana-Monroe	33.3	35.3	35.9
Tulane	Oklahoma	-28.5	-27.2	-25.6
Wisconsin	Penn St.	6.5	5.4	5.7
Arkansas	Rice	26.1	25.8	24.2
Oregon	Fresno St.	16.8	16.2	17.2
Maryland	West Virginia	-3.5	-3.5	-3.8
Iowa	Indiana	0.4	-0.4	1.1
Cincinnati	Miami (O)	16.4	18.1	21.9
Navy	Marshall	-0.1	-0.9	-0.8
Miami (Fla.) (n)	Alabama	-13.3	-12.7	-13.7
Pittsburgh	Massachusetts	28.0	29.8	32.6
Missouri	Central Michigan	8.8	10.8	9.7
Mississippi St.	Louisiana Tech	25.8	25.5	27.0
Texas	Louisiana	9.9	9.9	8.2
USC	San Jose St.	18.0	17.3	22.0
Purdue	Oregon St.	1.4	0.7	1.8
Houston	Texas Tech	1.1	-1.3	2.8
Texas St.	Baylor	-13.4	-16.1	-14.6
Ohio U	Syracuse	0.6	3.3	3.9
Auburn	Akron	37.6	38.6	41.5
Illinois	UTSA	7.1	7.2	8.8
Florida	Florida Atlantic	32.4	32.7	32.3
Georgia Tech	Northern Illinois	11.7	14.3	15.2
Clemson (n)	Georgia	-2.3	-1.4	-0.8
South Alabama	Southern Miss.	10.8	8.8	8.6
Texas A&M	Kent St.	28.7	27.4	30.7
UCLA	LSU	4.9	3.5	3.4
Arizona	BYU	-11.0	-10.7	-13.3
California	Nevada	0.3	3.8	3.5
San Diego St.	New Mexico St.	33.1	31.7	35.4
Washington St.	Utah St.	18.7	18.6	18.9
Florida St.	Notre Dame	-2.4	-4.1	-4.7
Ole Miss (n)	Louisville	11.6	11.9	10.0

Note:. Oklahoma vs. Tulane has been moved to Norman, OK.

Home Oklahoma

Visitor Tulane

PiRate 33.5

Mean 32.2

Bias 30.6

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
UAB (n)	Jacksonville St.	18.3
Utah	Weber St.	30.6
UNLV	Eastern Washington	6.7
New Mexico	Houston Baptist	20.0
Florida Int’l.	Long Island	22.4
Ball St.	Western Illinois	26.7
Buffalo	Wagner	37.7
Coastal Carolina	The Citadel	30.6
Tulsa	UC-Davis	26.3
Western Kentucky	UT-Martin	17.7
Arizona St.	Southern Utah	37.7
Eastern Michigan	St. Francis (PA)	29.3
Kansas	South Dakota	14.6
Colorado	Northern Colorado	31.0
Colorado St.	South Dakota St.	7.6
Wyoming	Montana St.	21.4
Hawaii	Portland St.	21.8
Air Force	Lafayette	35.0
Boston College	Colgate	37.6
Connecticut	Holy Cross	7.3
Nebraska	Fordham	25.5
Iowa St.	Northern Iowa	36.7
Liberty	Campbell	26.7
Georgia Southern	Gardner-Webb	28.8
South Carolina	Eastern Illinois	30.4
Middle Tennessee	Monmouth	8.6
Oklahoma St.	Missouri St.	35.0
Memphis	Nicholls	21.6
SMU	Abilene Christian	28.5
Toledo	Norfolk St.	33.4
Arkansas St.	Central Arkansas	15.6
Troy	Southern	25.7
North Texas	Northwestern St.	11.1
Virginia	William & Mary	31.9
Vanderbilt	East Tennessee St.	20.3
TCU	Duquesne	43.9
Washington	Montana	28.8
UTEP	Bethune-Cookman	11.7

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Alabama	130.2
2	Oklahoma	128.1
3	Georgia	125.2
4	Iowa St.	124.8
5	Clemson	122.2
6	Ohio St.	121.9
7	U S C	119.4
8	Florida	118.2
9	Texas A&M	118.1
10	North Carolina	117.7
11	Miami (Fla.)	116.9
12	Cincinnati	116.5
13	Auburn	116.1
14	T C U	116.0
15	Wisconsin	115.9
16	Texas	115.6
17	Indiana	115.5
18	Ole Miss	113.3
19	Arizona St.	113.1
20	Oklahoma St.	113.1
21	Penn St.	113.1
22	Iowa	112.8
23	Oregon	112.5
24	West Virginia	112.3
25	L S U	112.1
26	Washington	112.1
27	U C L A	112.0
28	Utah	111.9
29	Notre Dame	110.2
30	Mississippi St.	110.1
31	Arkansas	109.5
32	BYU	109.2
33	Louisiana	109.2
34	Coastal Carolina	108.4
35	Wake Forest	107.7
36	Kentucky	107.4
37	Maryland	107.2
38	Oregon St.	106.9
39	Missouri	106.4
40	Minnesota	106.1
41	NC State	106.1
42	Northwestern	105.8
43	Colorado	105.7
44	Liberty	105.5
45	Virginia Tech	105.3
46	Boston College	105.2
47	Michigan	104.9
48	Baylor	104.5
49	Kansas St.	104.4
50	Tennessee	104.0
51	Boise St.	103.9
52	Purdue	103.7
53	Florida St.	103.5
54	Michigan St.	103.0
55	Stanford	103.0
56	UCF	102.8
57	Virginia	102.7
58	Washington St.	102.5
59	Louisville	102.1
60	Nebraska	102.0
61	Texas Tech	101.9
62	Appalachian St.	101.0
63	South Carolina	100.8
64	San Jose St.	100.8
65	Houston	100.7
66	Pittsburgh	100.2
67	San Diego St.	100.2
68	Tulsa	100.1
69	Army	100.0
70	Miami (Ohio)	99.7
71	Central Michigan	99.7
72	Tulane	99.0
73	Nevada	98.8
74	Wyoming	98.5
75	California	98.4
76	Georgia Tech	98.2
77	Buffalo	98.0
78	Illinois	97.6
79	Ball St.	97.4
80	Fresno St.	96.7
81	Toledo	96.7
82	Air Force	96.5
83	Georgia St.	96.5
84	East Carolina	95.3
85	U A B	95.2
86	SMU	95.0
87	Rutgers	95.0
88	Arizona	94.6
89	U T S A	93.9
90	Hawaii	93.6
91	Ohio	93.5
92	Marshall	93.4
93	Troy	93.4
94	Memphis	93.2
95	Syracuse	92.9
96	Kent St.	91.7
97	Georgia Southern	91.6
98	Eastern Michigan	91.4
99	South Alabama	91.2
100	Western Michigan	91.0
101	USF	90.4
102	Navy	90.3
103	Vanderbilt	90.1
104	Arkansas St.	89.9
105	Duke	89.8
106	Colorado St.	89.0
107	Texas St.	87.8
108	Florida Atlantic	87.7
109	Northern Illinois	87.5
110	Rice	87.1
111	Louisiana Tech	86.5
112	Utah St.	85.8
113	New Mexico	85.7
114	Kansas	85.4
115	U N L V	84.9
116	Southern Miss.	84.4
117	Middle Tennessee	83.7
118	Western Kentucky	82.7
119	North Texas	81.7
120	Temple	81.6
121	Akron	79.8
122	Charlotte	79.5
123	Florida Int’l.	79.0
124	U T E P	77.9
125	UL-Monroe	75.6
126	Connecticut	74.3
127	UMass	73.1
128	Old Dominion	71.4
129	Bowling Green	70.8
130	New Mexico St.	67.8

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	116.3	115.3	118.0	116.5
UCF	102.5	101.2	104.8	102.8
Houston	101.1	99.5	101.6	100.7
Tulsa	100.2	100.3	99.7	100.1
Tulane	98.8	97.5	100.6	99.0
East Carolina	95.3	94.3	96.2	95.3
SMU	94.3	95.4	95.4	95.0
Memphis	92.4	92.8	94.3	93.2
USF	91.0	89.7	90.6	90.4
Navy	90.8	90.0	90.3	90.3
Temple	80.6	82.4	81.9	81.6
AAC Averages	96.7	96.2	97.6	96.8
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	120.9	121.5	124.0	122.2
Wake Forest	108.0	106.7	108.3	107.7
NC State	106.5	105.8	105.9	106.1
Boston College	104.7	105.3	105.7	105.2
Florida St.	103.4	103.6	103.5	103.5
Louisville	101.7	101.4	103.2	102.1
Syracuse	93.7	93.1	92.1	92.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	116.4	116.7	119.9	117.7
Miami (Fla.)	117.1	116.1	117.7	116.9
Virginia Tech	106.4	104.9	104.7	105.3
Virginia	102.1	104.1	101.8	102.7
Pittsburgh	99.8	100.9	100.1	100.2
Georgia Tech	98.0	98.3	98.3	98.2
Duke	89.7	91.2	88.5	89.8
ACC Averages	104.9	105.0	105.3	105.0
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	129.3	126.7	128.2	128.1
Iowa St.	125.3	123.5	125.6	124.8
T C U	116.6	115.1	116.3	116.0
Texas	116.7	114.5	115.6	115.6
Oklahoma St.	113.5	113.2	112.5	113.1
West Virginia	113.8	112.0	111.1	112.3
Baylor	104.9	104.8	103.8	104.5
Kansas St.	104.9	104.7	103.5	104.4
Texas Tech	102.0	102.8	100.8	101.9
Kansas	88.1	85.6	82.5	85.4
Big 12 Averages	111.5	110.3	110.0	110.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Indiana	114.9	115.0	116.4	115.5
Penn St.	111.7	112.8	114.6	113.1
Maryland	108.7	106.9	105.8	107.2
Michigan	104.3	105.1	105.3	104.9
Michigan St.	103.5	103.0	102.5	103.0
Rutgers	94.1	96.3	94.5	95.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.2	115.2	117.3	115.9
Iowa	112.3	111.6	114.5	112.8
Minnesota	104.6	106.1	107.6	106.1
Northwestern	105.8	105.8	105.8	105.8
Purdue	103.6	102.9	104.5	103.7
Nebraska	101.7	102.2	102.0	102.0
Illinois	97.1	97.6	98.2	97.6
Big Ten Averages	107.0	107.3	108.0	107.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	78.1	79.1	76.3	77.9
CUSA Averages	84.3	84.9	84.5	84.6
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	108.8	110.6	111.2	110.2
BYU	109.2	108.2	110.3	109.2
Liberty	104.3	105.6	106.5	105.5
Army	100.0	99.8	100.2	100.0
Connecticut	74.9	76.1	72.0	74.3
UMass	74.8	74.0	70.5	73.1
New Mexico St.	68.5	69.2	65.7	67.8
Indep. Averages	91.5	91.9	90.9	91.5
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	101.9	99.2	98.1	99.7
Buffalo	98.5	97.5	97.9	98.0
Ohio	92.2	94.4	94.0	93.5
Kent St.	91.3	93.4	90.5	91.7
Akron	81.8	79.6	78.1	79.8
Bowling Green	71.6	72.1	68.8	70.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Central Michigan	100.5	99.1	99.5	99.7
Ball St.	98.4	98.3	95.5	97.4
Toledo	97.5	96.7	95.8	96.7
Eastern Michigan	93.1	91.2	89.8	91.4
Western Michigan	91.2	91.6	90.1	91.0
Northern Illinois	89.3	87.0	86.1	87.5
MAC Averages	92.3	91.7	90.4	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.9	103.3	104.3	103.9
Wyoming	97.7	98.4	99.5	98.5
Air Force	96.4	96.3	96.9	96.5
Colorado St.	88.8	88.8	89.3	89.0
Utah St.	85.6	86.6	85.2	85.8
New Mexico	85.8	86.2	85.2	85.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	101.3	101.6	99.5	100.8
San Diego St.	100.6	99.9	100.2	100.2
Nevada	98.4	99.7	98.4	98.8
Fresno St.	95.2	97.2	97.9	96.7
Hawaii	93.9	93.2	93.6	93.6
U N L V	85.8	84.3	84.6	84.9
MWC Averages	94.4	94.6	94.5	94.5
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oregon	111.0	112.4	114.1	112.5
Washington	110.9	112.4	112.9	112.1
Oregon St.	106.7	106.7	107.3	106.9
Stanford	102.6	103.9	102.4	103.0
Washington St.	102.3	103.2	102.1	102.5
California	95.7	100.5	99.0	98.4
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U S C	118.8	118.4	120.9	119.4
Arizona St.	112.4	113.5	113.6	113.1
U C L A	111.9	111.9	112.2	112.0
Utah	111.8	112.1	111.8	111.9
Colorado	106.4	105.8	104.9	105.7
Arizona	95.2	94.5	94.0	94.6
Pac-12 Averages	107.1	107.9	107.9	107.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	124.8	124.5	126.3	125.2
Florida	117.0	119.4	118.1	118.2
Kentucky	106.7	108.8	106.8	107.4
Missouri	106.2	106.9	106.2	106.4
Tennessee	104.1	103.1	104.6	104.0
South Carolina	101.1	101.0	100.4	100.8
Vanderbilt	90.9	89.9	89.6	90.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	130.4	128.8	131.3	130.2
Texas A&M	117.4	118.3	118.6	118.1
Auburn	116.4	115.2	116.6	116.1
Ole Miss	113.3	113.3	113.2	113.3
L S U	111.0	112.4	112.8	112.1
Mississippi St.	110.2	110.4	109.7	110.1
Arkansas	110.1	109.9	108.5	109.5
SEC Averages	111.4	111.6	111.6	111.5
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Coastal Carolina	109.2	106.4	109.6	108.4
Appalachian St.	100.5	100.0	102.5	101.0
Georgia St.	97.0	96.2	96.3	96.5
Troy	93.1	93.4	93.7	93.4
Georgia Southern	91.7	92.1	91.2	91.6
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	109.8	107.6	110.4	109.2
South Alabama	91.6	91.5	90.6	91.2
Arkansas St.	89.8	91.0	88.8	89.9
Texas St.	89.4	86.7	87.2	87.8
UL-Monroe	76.4	76.5	73.9	75.6
Sun Averages	94.8	94.1	94.4	94.5

Rating of Conferences

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	111.5
2	Big 12	110.6
3	Pac-12	107.7
4	Big Ten	107.5
5	Atlantic Coast	105.0
6	American Athletic	96.8
7	Mountain West	94.5
8	Sun Belt	94.5
9	Independents	91.5
10	Mid-American	91.4
11	Conference USA	84.6

Big Ten Conference Preview

For many years from 1968 until the early 1980’s, the Big Ten Conference was jokingly called, “The Big Two and the Little Eight.”  Either Ohio State or Michigan won the conference championship for 13 consecutive years, and no other school other than the Big Two made an appearance in the Rose Bowl between Indiana in January of 1968 and Iowa in January of 1982.

The Big Ten had just 10 teams then.  Now, they have 14, and the league has been jokingly called, “Ohio State and the 13 Dwarves.”  The Buckeyes have won the last four Big Ten football championships and remain the only league team ever to win an FBS Playoff Game.

As the 2021 season nears its beginning, there isn’t much data out there that can be used to find an alternative to the Buckeyes’ being named the heavy favorite to win the conference championship for the fifth year in a row or any reason to believe they won’t return to the College Football Playoffs.  The Big Ten media concurs with this thought.  Here is how they voted at the preseason meetings.

Big Ten Media Poll
East Division	1st Pl	Total
Ohio St.	34	238
Penn St.		192
Indiana		169
Michigan		144
Maryland		79
Rutgers		77.5
Michigan St.		52.5
West Division	1st Pl	Total
Wisconsin	29	233
Iowa	5	202
Northwestern		160
Minnesota		146
Nebraska		91.5
Purdue		72.5
Illinois		47

How do the Preseason PiRate Ratings compare to the media poll?

Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	121.1	121.3	123.2	121.9
Indiana	114.9	115.0	116.4	115.5
Penn St.	111.7	112.8	114.6	113.1
Maryland	108.7	106.9	105.8	107.2
Michigan	104.3	105.1	105.3	104.9
Michigan St.	103.5	103.0	102.5	103.0
Rutgers	94.1	96.3	94.5	95.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.2	115.2	117.3	115.9
Iowa	112.3	111.6	114.5	112.8
Minnesota	104.6	106.1	107.6	106.1
Northwestern	105.8	105.8	105.8	105.8
Purdue	103.6	102.9	104.5	103.7
Nebraska	102.8	103.4	103.3	103.2
Illinois	96.0	96.4	96.9	96.4
Big Ten Averages	107.0	107.3	108.0	107.5

Here is a brief preview of each team.

East Division

Ohio St.: When a typical team loses an All-American quarterback like Justin Fields and a star running back like Trey Sermon, the immediate thought of major rebuild and significant drop in production comes to mind.  In Columbus, it means an opportunity to show the nation who the next stars will be.  Ohio State’s quarterback room is now overcrowded, and at least one of the heralded stars on the roster is likely to hit the Transfer Portal to play elsewhere in 2022.

The elephant in the Buckeyes’ quarterback room is true freshman Quinn Ewers.  He should be a senior in high school, but he reclassified by graduating early and has made it to Columbus, where he will contend with three other star players for the starting job.  Ewers has the talent to be even better than Trevor Lawrence, but he will most likely start the season as the backup to redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud.  Having Ewers as the #2 to start the season will be like Stanford having John Elway as Turk Schonert’s backup in 1979.

Expect a bit more running from the Buckeyes this year, at least until the quarterbacks get some experience.  Master Teague, III, will get the most carries, but the Buckeyes are deep with quality backs, and a running back by committee should combine to average north of 250 rushing yards per game.  The offensive line should be as strong as last year.

What about the receiving corps?  Simply, it is the far and away best unit in college football with two potential first team All-Americans.  Chris Olave would have been a first round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft had he decided to declare.  He and teammate Garrett Wilson should both become first round selections in 2022.  They combined to catch 93 passes and average 15.6 yards per catch with 13 touchdowns.  Number three option Jeremy Ruckert is one of the top ten tight ends in college football.  The backups would start at just about every other Big Ten school.  Expect OSU to top 40 points and 500 total yards yet again in 2021.

There will be some rebuilding to complete on the defensive side.  The linebacking unit will unveil entirely new starters, but these are four-star recruits and upperclassmen, so it’s like bringing in three five-star recruits.  The defensive line will still be the best in the league and top five in the nation, and a strong front four can disguise a lot of liabilities in the short passing zones with exceptional pass rushing.  The Buckeye secondary should be strong even with the loss of former star Shaun Wade.  Cover cornerback Sevyn Banks should contend for 1st team All-Big Ten honors.

Ohio State gave up more than 25 points and 400 yards per game last year, but 25% of their schedule was against Clemson and Alabama, and another 12.5% was against Indiana.  Expect the averages to come down considerably in 2021, as the Buckeyes play more teams with weaker offenses.

Penn State had a rare losing season in the shortened 2020 Covid year.  An opening game loss to Indiana in overtime was gifted to the Hoosiers, and the Nittany Lions were derailed until Thanksgiving.  At 0-5, Penn State closed with four strong wins by an average score of 36-17.  Coach James Franklin is a winner; he did the impossible at Vanderbilt by winning nine games in back-to-back years and finishing ranked in the top 25.  Vanderbilt’s other nine-win seasons were 1904 and 1915.  Franklin is the best motivating coach since Tommy Lasorda managed the Los Angeles Dodgers.

We expect the Nittany Lions to make a big turnaround in 2021 and play more like the team that finished 4-0 and not the team that started 0-5.  On offense, quarterback Sean Clifford returns and has four of his top five targets returning.  Jahan Dotson is the Big Ten’s best receiver not wearing scarlet and gray.  He averaged 17 yards per catch with eight scores in nine games.  At running back, multiple players with experience return, and like Ohio State, this should be a running back by committee approach.  There is a small question in the offensive line, but there’s enough talent returning to keep this unit from being a liability.

Defensively, Penn State will be tough to pass against into the intermediate and longer zones.  The Lions may once again begin to look like Linebacker U this year, with new talent usurping starting returning players.  There should be considerable improvement in this trio.  Up front, the four-man interior will be inexperienced and the reason why Penn State cannot compete with Ohio State this year.  Still, overall, the Lions should be the second best team in the East and could bounce back with a nine-win season.

Indiana was the darling of the Power 5 Conferences last year and second best story overall after Coastal Carolina.  Last year’s 6-1 Big Ten record was the Hoosiers’ best since they tied for the league title and went to the Rose Bowl in the 1967 season.  The season was no fluke.  Indiana took Ohio State to the final horn in their game in Columbus last year, losing by a touchdown.

With a large percentage of returning starters, more than both Ohio State and Penn State, one would expect that we should pick IU to contend for the East Division title this year.  Alas, we believe that the Hoosiers played above their talent level last year, and seldom can a team outperform its talent level two years in a row for an entire season.  Expect a couple of teams to defeat Indiana inside the league, and a non-conference game against top Group of 5 team Cincinnati will be a tough one to win.

Quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., is one of the most exciting offensive threats in college football.  However, he has been injury-prone, not like Carson Wentz, but enough to worry that he can make it through an entire season.  Backup Jack Tuttle is capable for a game or two, but he’s not the answer for an extended period of time.  Penix is worth a good 10-13 points more per game than Tuttle to the IU offense.

Penix’s favorite receiver from 2020 has graduated.  Slot receiver Whop Philyor led the Hoosiers with 54 receptions, many being 7-10 yard plays on 3rd and 5 or 6.  His loss will hurt the offense more than what his stats looked like.  Big play specialist Ty Fryfogle will need to come up with a monster year if IU is to stay ahead of Penn State for second best in the division.

The running game was an afterthought last year, so losing their leading rusher isn’t all that much of a loss, especially when the backups had better stats per play.  The offensive line will be strong and protect Penix, so Indiana’s offense should score about 30 points per game this year.

The Indiana defense was quite opportunistic in 2020, and they lost their defensive coordinator, who took the head coaching job at South Alabama.  New defensive coordinator Charlton Warren has a reputation for being an excellent recruiter and developer of pass coverage.  Indiana had a decent pass defense last year, and with most of the back seven returning, Warren will coach them up to be better in 2021.  The problem is the defensive front four was a bit vulnerable last year, and it may not be much improved this year.  Teams that can run the ball between the tackles and allow their quarterbacks enough time to throw the ball will exploit the Hoosiers.

Maryland has been a team on the cusp of becoming good over the last few years, but off-the-field issues have contributed to the inability to get over that final hump.  Head Coach Mike Locksley has one of the worst overall head coaching records at 8-43, but that record is as deceiving as Casey Stengel’s managerial record prior to taking the New York Yankees job in 1949.  Locksley spent some time as an assistant at Alabama under Nick Saban, and he has a reputation for being an excellent recruiter.  Over time, Maryland should have better talent and will be able to contend for second place in the East.  This year, a run at bowl eligibility is possible as there is a path to a six-win season.

The Terps’ offense starts with quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, the younger brother of Tua of the Miami Dolphins.  Taulia has potential to be a star, but he has to cut down on errant throws.  New offensive coordinator Dan Enos was the OC at Alabama when Tua became a star.  If Taulia can improve just enough to cut down on interceptions and complete a couple more passes per game, Maryland’s offense will improve by several places in the league after finishing near the bottom last year.

The Terps were weak defensively last year, giving up 32 points and 430 total yards per game.  Pass defense was much better than run defense, but opponents didn’t have to throw the ball a lot, and when they did, they three longer passes to force the defense not to crowd the line with extra defenders.  The front four returns all four players that began the season as starters, and the IU run defense should improve some.

An opening game against West Virginia will be as important as any conference game this year.  If the Terps can beat WVU, they have a path to five more wins and bowl eligibility.

What can we say about Michigan and Coach Jim Harbaugh that hasn’t been said on ESPN, Fox, CBS radio network talk shows as well as several local talk shows?  Michigan is no longer the dynasty team it was for decades.  Some of the decline is not exclusively Harbaugh’s fault,  The school has tightened admissions standards ever so slightly since the mid 2000’s, and there have been some top recruits denied admission even though they were academically qualified.  Still, there are ample numbers of recruits that can play at Michigan; this is not Rice, Vanderbilt, or Stanford.

2021 is probably the last straw season for Harbaugh.  Coming off a 2-4 season that came close to being 1-5, the Wolverines must start from scratch on the offensive side of the ball with a major rebuild that is likely to prevent UM from being any more than a six or seven-win team.  Quarterback Cade McNamara begins the season at number one on the depth chart, but he may not end the season there.  J.J. McCarthy is the best quarterback recruit to come to Ann Arbor in many years, and the five-star stud might eventually become the starter.  McNamara was anything but flashy in his limited time under center in an injury-filled, shortened season.  His ability to throw quick, short passes is excellent, but he has a tendency to throw dump off passes rather than challenge the defense with deeper routes like former starter Joe Milton.  Until the time that McCarthy might assume command of the offense, expect offensive coordinator Josh Gattis to rely more and more on the UM ground game.  That ground game bogged down last year, but it should bounce back with decent production this year.  Hassan Haskins has the potential to be a 1,000 yard rusher.  He averaged an eye-popping six yards per carry last year with six touchdowns in limited action.  Look for true freshman Donovan Edwards to figure in the running back rotation.

The Michigan defense has nowhere to go but up after looking more like a Mid-American Conference defense in 2020.  UM gave up almost 35 points per game and more than 430 yards per game last year, numbers that will not succeed in the Big Ten.  With nine starters returning plus several other key backups, Harbaugh has borrowed a new defensive coordinator on loan from his brother John’s Baltimore Ravens.  Mike Macondald will most likely implement much of the multiple defense the Ravens use.  There is enough raw talent to give the Wolverines a shot in the arm on this side of the ball and vastly improve on the numbers surrendered last year–at least until November 27.  Michigan did not play Ohio State last year, and the Buckeyes felt like the Wolverines opted out so they would not be embarrassed with a 50-14 type of score.

The strength of this defense will be the defensive front, be it a 4-3, 3-4, or something else.  End Aidan Hutchinson will contend for All-American honors.  The secondary should be improved as well a the starting unit returns intact and should show improvement over a weak 2020 showing.

Michigan has a key non-conference home game with Washington on September 11.  It is sandwiched between two winnable MAC opponents.  The Wolverines’ and Harbaugh’s fate may be sealed that day.  If Michigan can pull off what should be an upset, the confidence gained might allow the Wolverines to challenge Penn State and Indiana for second best in the East.  If they lose that game, it will be a tough task to exceed six or seven wins.  A 6-6 or worse season probably ends the Harbaugh reign at The Big House.  At 7-5, it is still iffy.  Beating Washington is the key to a potential 8-4 or better season, and Harbaugh’s future at his alma mater hinges on that one game.

Michigan State is the only Big Ten team other than Ohio State to make the College Football Playoffs.  The 2015 Spartans upset then #3 Ohio State, lost by one point to Nebraska, slaughtered Penn State by almost 40 points, and beat Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game to earn a spot in the playoffs at 12-1.  Alabama quickly disposed of Sparty 38-0 in the Cotton Bowl semifinals.

It’s been mostly downhill since 2015 at Spartan Stadium.  MSU enjoyed one fairly strong campaign in 2017, but 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2020 were off years.

Second year head coach Mel Tucker was a backup choice as MSU’s replacement for Dantonio.  He had been a head coach at Colorado State for one season, and the jury is out on whether he can win in the Big Ten.  A win over Michigan has bought Tucker some time to prove he can get the job done.  2021 is one of unknowns for this team.  There are some talented players with experience on board, but there are multiple question marks as well.  None of the offensive or defensive units rank in the upper half of the league.  

There are questions at quarterback, which in these days of college football, it’s like saying a major league baseball team has questions with its entire pitching staff.  Former Temple starting quarterback Anthony Russo guided the Owl to two bowl games, while putting up decent but not great numbers.  His numbers against Power 5 conference defenses were not that impressive.

The MSU running game is one of the weakest in the league.  It produced just 91 yards per game last year, and there is little reason to expect anything more than 125 yards per game at the maximum this year.

The receiving corps is the best unit on the squad, but you won’t find any all-stars on the team.  The offensive line should be better this year, but better from terrible to mediocre isn’t going to beat the top teams in the league.

We expect the Michigan State defense to show improvement this year, as Tucker is, or was once considered to be, a defensive guru.  His best defensive recruit was his hiring of Scottie Hazelton as his coordinator.  Hazelton may look like a lumberjack that has been in the forest for a month, but he’s a genius with repairing defenses and has a long history of success.  There is just enough returning starting talent and comparable backup talent to mold MSU into a defense that opposing offensive coordinators will not enjoy playing against Sparty.  After giving up 35+ points per game and almost 400 yards per game last year, we expect MSU to give up about 28 points and 370 yards per game this year.

The schedule gives MSU a great shot at picking up two out of conference wins, but the conference schedule is tough with games at Northwestern  and at Purdue from the West Division.  If these had been home games, MSU might have had a shot at a 6-6 surprise season, but four wins looks more like the most likely outcome.

Rutgers is a member of the Big Ten Conference because the Scarlet Knights bring the Metro NY-NJ media market into the league.  A lot of people don’t realize that Rutgers is the University of New Jersey.  This school has a potential recruiting base in a multi-state area to compete in the Big Ten, but when 3-6 represents your best conference showing, it is obvious that the making of a legitimate Big Ten program is still in the distance.

Greg Schiano did wave his magic wand over this program in his first tenure in New Brunswick, taking the Scarlet Knights to four consecutive bowl games and a national ranking as high as number six.  He recruited a future NFL star running back in Ray Rice as well as 15 other NFL players, but it took him four years the first time around to build the program into a winner, and that was in the old Big East Conference.   Competing against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan is a little different.

Rutgers defeated Michigan State, Purdue, and Maryland last year, but what has RU fans so upbeat is that this school narrowly lost games to Illinois, Michigan, and Nebraska.  With a tad more talent an experience, the fans believed that the record could have been 6-3.

Now, throw in one key point: Rutgers returns the most starters of any Big Ten team this year!  So, why do they begin the season with a PiRate Rating that has them on the bottom of the division?  The simple answer is that in addition to almost going 6-3 instead of 3-6, they could have also almost gone 0-9.  Schiano deserves a lot of credit for having his team ready to play during the Covid interruptions.  Rutgers didn’t miss a game.  They benefited greatly from Schiano’s exceptional organizational skills as well as his ability to delegate tasks to others.  None of these intangibles figures to be as important this year, as hopefully the virus variant will not cause the issues of 2020.

This is still a roster with sub-Big Ten level talent at many positions.  Noah Vedral didn’t make it at Nebraska against Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey, but he was the best option Schiano had at RU once he landed in New Jersey.  He is a capable game manager, but he isn’t going to frighten Big Ten defensive coordinators.    Backup Johnny Langdan is a better runner, but he is a tad weaker passer.  Neither option can consistently win Big Ten games.

The top player on the offense is receiver Bo Melton.  He led RU with 47 catches and 638 yards last year, but he’s about on par with the #3 receivers at the top schools in the league.  

One part of the offense that should make decent improvement this year is the offensive line, as the starters and some key reserves all return.  The unit should give the quarterbacks a tad more time to throw the ball, possibly topping 200 yards through the air.

Defensively, linebacker is the strength of the team, but at best this is a middle of the pack unit in the Big Ten.  The top player on the entire team is linebacker Olakunle Fatukasi, the younger brother of New York Jets’ defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi.  Fatukasi recorded a team-leading 101 tackles last year.  Fellow linebacker Ty Fogg gives RU an excellent tandem.

The defensive front four and the secondary are serious liabilities.  Rutgers defenses have failed to ever become great pass rushing teams in Big Ten play, and giving quality quarterbacks ample time to throw the ball will not get it done in a Power 5 league.

There is one position where Rutgers has a Big Ten quality performer.  It figures that a team with an inconsistent offense could attract a great punter, and Adam Korsak is one of the top rugby-style punters in America.  Numerous times he punted the ball deep into enemy territory forcing enemy offenses to march 85 yards to score.

West Division

Wisconsin began 2020 looking like a legitimate threat to Ohio State for conference supremacy.  The Badgers pasted Illinois and Michigan by a combined score of 94-18.  A trip to Evanston to face Northwestern ended in a 17-7 defeat, and Wisconsin proceeded to lose to Indiana and Iowa before edging Minnesota for Paul Bunyon’s Axe and once again looking impressive in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl win over Wake Forest.

Considering that the Badgers played the season with a backup quarterback, and the schedule presented brakes due to Covid cancellations, UW never could unleash its full potential in 2020.  A new year probably returns things to normal, and normal is for the Badgers to be the favorite to win the West Division.

Graham Mertz has his ups and downs as a starting quarterback, and in his sophomore year, he may still have some downs, but with the incredible offensive line blocking for him and another great stable of running backs, expect UW to look more like the team that scored 40+ in three of their four wins than the team that scored 20 points total in their three losses.

The UW defense led the Big Ten in fewest yards allowed, and most of the key players return this year.  The four-man linebacker unit returns intact from last year, led by Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal on the inside.  The pair combined for 14 tackles per game.

The secondary should be almost as strong as the linebacker unit.  The three-man defensive front faces a minor rebuild, but there is talent and size there.

The schedule presents several little traps, namely an opening game against Penn State, a September game against Notre Dame at Soldier Field in Chicago, and a mid-October game against Army.  Army’s quick finesse offense could be hard for the Badgers’ strong but not as quick defense.

Iowa dropped its first two games last year, losing to Purdue and Northwestern.  Then, they reeled off six consecutive victories to finish a half-game out of first in the West.  Their bowl game was cancelled due to Covid, so the Hawkeyes enter the 2021 season riding a six-game winning streak.  Not bad for a team that was hit by symptomatic Covid, including then 65-year old head coach Kirk Ferentz.

Iowa lost too much talent to be a serious contender for the West Division title, but the Hawkeyes should nest in the second or third spot in a weak division.  Quarterback Spencer Petras wasn’t flashy last year, but he led the Hawkeyes to 32 points per game.  Having Tyler Goodson return at running back is a major bonus.  Goodson led the Big Ten with 762 yards rushing, scoring seven times.

The defensive line faces a major rebuild this year, but the back seven should be strong once again.  Free safety Jack Koerner has star potential.

The 2021 Hawkeye schedule includes road games against Iowa State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Nebraska, as well as tough home games against Indiana and Penn State.  The Hawkeyes will likely go 2-3 or 1-4 in these games, and that won’t be good enough to win the division.

Minnesota had an outstanding 11-2 season in 2019.  Last year, they had two games cancelled by positive Covid issues, and they lost two games in overtime, falling to 3-4.  

The 2021 Gophers’ team has the makings of an excellent offensive team if quarterback Tanner Morgan can return to his 2019 pre-Covid form.  Running back Mohamed Ibrahim rushed for 1,076 yards and 15 touchdowns in just seven games last year.  Enough quality talent returns to the receiving corps, even if top receiver Rashod Bateman did not return.  Chris Autman-Bell has 50 catch, 800-1000 yards potential.  Daniel Jackson will keep defenses honest.

Defense is going to be the problem in Minneapolis this year.  The Gophers are not particularly strong with any of their three units, and this team surrendered 416 yards and 30 points per game last year.  A large number of incoming transfers figure to play considerable snaps this year, but it is questionable whether they can make the Minnesota defense strong enough to contend in the division.

The Gophers pulled the short straw with their 2021 schedule.  They open with Ohio State.  A road game against Colorado will be pivotal in determining UM’s chances to finish with a winning record and to earn a bowl bid.

Northwestern was the surprise winner of the West last year, and the Wildcats even gave Ohio State an excellent Championship Game battle in Indianapolis.  The Wildcats led the league in scoring defense and finished fifth nationally overall.  

Normally, when a school like Northwestern returns just seven starters from its first team the year before, the immediate thought would be that this team was headed to last place in the division.  However, Coach Pat Fitzgerald had excellent depth through outstanding recruiting classes, so even though NU will slip back  in the standings this year, they could still be bowl eligible and pick up an upset win along the way.

Peyton Ramsey was an excellent game-manager in his one year at the helm of the offense.  His loss would normally cripple a team like NU, but the Wildcats have two new transfers that will give the Wildcats depth.  Former Clemson backup Hunter Johnson was a five-star recruit but never got the chance to play much with Trevor Lawrence on the team.  Backup Ryan Hilinski started several games with South Carolina, so the Wildcats are set at quarterback in 2021.  

The receiver unit is an issue this year, where running back Cam Porter is the leading returning receiver.  Expect Northwestern to rely more on the spread running game this year while using more basic passing plays to keep defenses honest.  The offensive line should be an asset this year, so they should be able to open holes for the running game to succeed more times than it fails.

Defense should still be better than average this year, but it won’t lead the league again.  The defensive backfield is the strength on this side, even though top pass defender Greg Newsome II is now a Cleveland Brown.  Safety Brandon Joseph picked up six passes in nine games, and he stands a chance to repeat as an All-American as a sophomore.

Northwestern has size and strength up front, while linebacker is the one questionable spot to start the season.

NU has a good chance to win all three non-conference games, so a 3-6 conference record would be good enough to earn a bowl bid.  We believe Fitzgerald is one of the five best head coaches in college football, and it wouldn’t surprise us if Northwestern pulls off a couple of upsets and wins eight games.

Purdue has been the victim of circumstances for the last three years, suffering more key injuries than any other Big Ten team.  Rondale Moore could have been the best Boilermaker player since Drew Brees, but injuries limited his potential as a big play receiver.

The Boilermakers fell to 2-4 last year, losing their final four games after starting 2-0.  Coach Jeff Brohm is now on a hot seat in West Lafayette after being considered a potential star in the business when he took the job five years ago.

There is enough talent for Purdue to put together a decent offense, but the defense is not up to Big Ten standards.  Purdue could score 30 points per game this year but give up 35, so prospects are not great at Ross-Ade Stadium.  The month of September will be vital to the team’s chances to have any success.  An opening game at home against Oregon State will not be an easy win if a win at all.  A road game against rival Notre Dame is likely to be a double-digit loss.  A conference home-opener against Illinois is a must-win game, but after that one, there are no other guarantee wins on the schedule.  If Purdue can get three conference wins with this defense, it should be considered an accomplishment this year.

Nebraska might be the opposite of Purdue with a decent defense and a questionable offense.  What Coach Scott Frost has going in his favor is the fact that quarterback Adrian Martinez returns and is healthy entering the season.  Martinez has the talent to make an offense work even with a lot of inexperienced players surrounding him.

Nebraska’s 2020 defense was better than average, and the good news is that nine starters return this year.  The 2021 defense may not remind anybody of the great Black Shirt defense, but there are star players on all three units with defensive end Ben Stille, outside linebacker JoJo Domann, and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt.  

Another benefit for this year’s Nebraska team is their schedule.  The one sure non-conference loss will come at the hands of Oklahoma on September 28, when the two teams honor the 50th anniversary season of the greatest game played since the end of World War II.  In conference play, the ‘Huskers get their most winnable games at home, and it should give them a decent shot at a 6-6 season and bowl bid.  Whether that is enough to save Frost’s job, who knows?

Illinois has the one new coach in the league this year, but the new coach isn’t really new.  Former Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema returns to the Big Ten, hoping to take his old school’s rival to the south to the same heights he took his former school.

Illinois beat Rutgers and Nebraska last year, but the Illini were blown off the field by Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Penn State.  

Bielema’s coaching style is to pound the ball on the ground and rely on tight ends that can block linebackers and catch 10-15-yard passes over the middle.  Tight end Daniel Barker made 19 catches in eight games.  He might double that number this year.

Chase Brown rushed for 540 yards and a 5.2 yard average last year.  Bielema will make sure to give him 250 or more rushing attempts this year if Brown remains healthy.  Backup Chase Hayden has seen action with East Carolina and Arkansas, and he will get a share of the load this year.

Brandon Peters returns at quarterback, but redshirt freshman Isaiah Williams might eventually step in.  This is not a particular strong point to the offense.

Illinois was too beneficial defensively last year, giving up 467 yards per game and 35 points per game.  With seven starters back, new defensive coordinator Ryan Walters should improve the Illini pass rush.  However, he cannot work miracles, and it will take miracles for this defense to be strong enough to hold Big Ten opponents under 30 points per game this year.

Non-conference games with UTSA and Charlotte are the only sure wins this year, but a home game with Rutgers is a tossup.

The PiRate Ratings do not look past the next game for each team, but we issue our season won-loss predictions for fun.

Big Ten Conference
East Division	Conf.	Overall
Ohio St.	9-0	13-0*
Penn St.	6-3	9-3
Indiana	6-3	9-3
Michigan	4-5	6-6
Maryland	3-6	5-7
Michigan St.	2-7	4-8
Rutgers	1-8	3-9
West Division	Conf.	Overall
Wisconsin	8-1	11-2
Iowa	7-2	9-3
Northwestern	5-4	8-4
Nebraska	4-5	6-6
Minnesota	4-5	6-6
Purdue	3-6	5-7
Illinois	1-8	3-9
* Ohio St. picked to win Big Ten Championship Game

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Friday, March 19, 2021

Favorite	Underdog	Spread
Baylor	Hartford	22.0
Wisconsin	North Carolina	0.3
Villanova	Winthrop	8.1
Purdue	North Texas	7.4
Texas Tech	Utah St.	2.3
Arkansas	Colgate	8.4
Florida	Virginia Tech	2.1
Ohio St.	Oral Roberts	16.1
Illinois	Drexel	20.5
Loyola (Chi.)	Georgia Tech	2.7
Tennessee	Oregon St.	7.6
Oklahoma St.	Liberty	8.2
San Diego St.	Syracuse	2.8
West Virginia	Morehead St.	11.6
Rutgers	Clemson	1.9
Houston	Cleveland St.	17.9

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, March 14, 2021

Team 1	Team 2	Spread
Colgate	Loyola (MD)	12.2
St. Bonaventure	VCU	1.7
Alabama	LSU	4.3
Illinois	Ohio St.	4.1
Houston	Cincinnati	13.7

Today’s Championship Games

All Times Eastern Daylight

12:00 PM: Patriot League

CBSSN

Colgate vs. Loyola (MD)

1:00 PM: Atlantic 10

CBS

Saint Bonaventure vs. VCU

1:00 PM: Southeastern

ESPN

Alabama vs. LSU

3:15 PM: American Athletic

ESPN

Cincinnati vs. Houston

3:30 PM: Big Ten

CBS

Illinois vs. Ohio St.

The PiRates are hunkering down in the galley tonight finalizing our official Bracketology predictions for tomorrow. We expect to issue our final predictions as soon as the Conference USA Championship Game winner is known. Cincinnati has the opportunity to burst a bubble just like Georgetown did winning the Big East Championship.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 28, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Cincinnati	Memphis	-4.1
Houston	South Florida	18.8
NC State	Pittsburgh	3.3
New Hampshire	UMass Lowell	0.8
Hartford	Albany	2.8
Butler	Villanova	-10.7
Idaho	Montana St.	-13.0
Maryland	Michigan St.	4.4
Ohio St.	Iowa	0.1
UTEP	Charlotte	5.0
Western Kentucky	Florida Intl.	16.3
Marist	Quinnipiac	2.4
Delaware St.	Coppin St.	-5.8
South Carolina St.	Florida A&M	-10.4
Utah St.	Nevada	6.8
Army	Boston University	7.0
Navy	Loyola (MD)	6.4
American	Bucknell	1.2
Lehigh	Lafayette	-4.2
Oral Roberts	Western Illinois	10.3
South Dakota	North Dakota St.	0.9

Coming Monday–Updated ratings and Bracketology plus a first look at early conference tournament action, including some preliminary “Bracketnomics” data.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
Houston	Western Kentucky	12.9
Sacramento St.	Weber St.	-6.5
Northern Colorado	Portland St.	2.4
Idaho St.	Montana	-3.1
Michigan	Iowa	1.8
Illinois	Nebraska	18.1
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-7.3
Minnesota	Northwestern	5.0
Detroit	Robert Morris	10.7
Youngstown St.	Illinois-Chicago	3.8
Green Bay	Purdue Fort Wayne	5.3
Milwaukee	IUPUI	3.6
Western Michigan	Miami (O)	-3.3
Ohio	Eastern Michigan	12.4
Buffalo	Central Michigan	14.3
South Carolina St.	Florida A&M	-10.4
San Diego St.	Boise St.	5.3
Merrimack	St. Francis (NY)	4.6
St. Francis (PA)	Mount St. Mary’s	-1.9
Sacred Heart	Fairleigh Dickinson	2.5
Bryant	Long Island University	8.1
Central Connecticut	Wagner	-8.1
SIU Edwardsville	UT Martin	6.8
Morehead St.	Tennessee St.	14.0
Eastern Kentucky	Belmont	-7.1
Jacksonville St.	Murray St.	-0.3
Eastern Illinois	Southeast Missouri St.	0.7
Tennessee Tech	Austin Peay	-5.8
Arizona St.	Washington	8.0
Utah	UCLA	-1.1
Colorado	USC	0.7
Stanford	Oregon	0.2
California	Oregon St.	-2.0
Arizona	Washington St.	7.8
Prairie View A&M	Mississippi Valley St.	27.1
Texas Southern	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	13.6
Gonzaga	Santa Clara	30.3
BYU	San Francisco	11.0
Pepperdine	Loyola Marymount	2.4
San Diego	Portland	11.9
Saint Mary’s	Pacific	5.8

Bracketnomics 2021 is Coming!

Our most popular feature at the PiRate Ratings is coming soon. Our annual Bracketnomics series will commence once conference tournament action begins. We made a major upgrade to the system last year, incorporating a host of new back-tested factors that separated contenders from pretenders in the past.

This new back-engineered data was ready to debut last year, but the virus ended up defeating the Big Dance. This year, the virus still brings special situations to the tournament, as everybody will be brought into a small area of Central Indiana, much like an Olympiad. But, we expect the Bracketnomics data to hold its weight in determining which teams have the best chances to win six games in 17 days.

For what it’s worth, here’s a little tease. The top two teams, the undefeated Gonzaga and undefeated Baylor, currently do not have the ideal resumes for a national champion. On the other hand, if the tournament commenced today, no team would have a perfect resume, but two teams have better resumes than the rest. Those two teams are Michigan and Illinois. A lot can change in the next two weeks, so don’t go placing wagers on the Wolverines and Ilini to make the Final Four. Just remember to check here daily once the conference tournament action begins.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Spreads

Sunday, February 21, 2021

Home	Visitor	Spread
George Washington	Rhode Island	-8.7
St. Bonaventure	Davidson	4.1
Houston	Cincinnati	13.0
Temple	South Florida	1.1
Xavier	Butler	9.1
Ohio St.	Michigan	0.7
Rutgers	Maryland	0.1
Iowa	Penn St.	11.0
Northwestern	Wisconsin	-3.8
Drake	Evansville	15.7
Southern Illinois	Valparaiso	0.3
San Jose St.	UNLV	-9.2
Wagner	St. Francis (Pa)	6.6
Colgate	Boston U	14.1
American	Navy	-3.0

Note: Big Announcement Coming Later Today!