The Pi-Rate Ratings

March 11, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology Special

With just one day to go before the real bracket reveal on Selection Sunday, I am not posting an update to my bracketology. Instead, I am listing the teams on the Bubble along with some of their accolades. Most of today and tomorrow will be spent doing more in-depth analysis and calculations than a typical day’s bracketology-analysis so the final prediction tomorrow afternoon can be as accurate as possible. In the past nine years, PiRate Ratings’ Bracketology has correctly picked all 68 teams five times, 67 teams three times, and 66 teams one time.

Let’s look at the raw data for each of the Bubble Teams.

TeamNETCOMSOSNSOSQ1Q2Q3Q4AwayToday
Arizona St.6666621235-64-55-08-112-7
Clemson57631233124-43-27-29-28-9
Mississippi St.4950432044-84-35-18-09-8
Nevada374224704-54-310-23-08-9
North Carolina464412182-95-47-06-08-10
North Texas3846831121-33-211-19-114-5
Oklahoma St.4338111586-124-23-15-07-10
Oregon47402872-97-45-15-06-9
Pittsburgh6777861224-43-55-110-18-8
Rutgers4035482195-75-32-47-05-9
UAB52541192932-31-39-112-110-6FAU
Utah St.181820292-49-113-01-212-5SDSU
Vanderbilt79796125-95-15-25-18-8TXAM
Wisconsin8275361186-85-51-15-08-8

These are not all the factors, but they are a lot of the factors that will lead to the final selections by the NCAA Selection Committee, and me. There is a wildcard factor called “The Eye Test,” which is the Committee’s one non-mathematical part of the puzzle. Nobody will ever admit this, but this is their “good ole boy” method of selecting the big name program over the “little guy” when the data is close enough to justify their selection. Every year, CBS announcers will question the head of the Committee about why a big team got the final bid when a 30-4 Mid-major team was left out. One year, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better Net Rating than Mouse Tech. The next year, when Mouse Tech has the better Net, the excuse will be that Goliath had a better non-conference strength of schedule. The next year, when Mouse Tech has a better Net and Strength of Schedule, the excuse will be that Goliath had a 5-9 record against Q1 opponents, while Mouse Tech was 3-2. You get the picture. There is but one real reason why, if it is close enough, Goliath always gets the nod over Mouse Tech. The reasons can come after the fact.

Our final bracket reveal will publish here on Selection Sunday, as soon as the last game that can affect the bracket goes final. There are some potential bid-stealers still playing.

In the American Athletic Conference, Houston and Memphis are locks. So, if Cincinnati or Tulane wins the automatic bid, one Bubble will burst.

Red hot Ohio State has advanced to the Big Ten semifinals. If the Buckeyes beat Purdue today and then either Indiana or Penn State tomorrow, they are in with the automatic bid.

If UAB beats Florida Atlantic today in the CUSA Championship Game, FAU is close to a sure thing to receive an at-large bid.

March 7, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 8, 2023

HomeVisitorSpread
Alcorn St.Texas Southern2.9
Arizona St.Oregon St.11.3
ColgateLafayette9.4
Colorado St.Fresno St.2.2
DavidsonSt. Bonaventure2.7
DuquesneLa Salle6.6
Florida Intl.Louisiana Tech-3.7
George MasonRichmond1.6
George WashingtonSaint Joseph’s-0.8
GeorgiaLSU-0.7
GramblingBethune Cookman11.2
HowardSouth Carolina St.8.2
IonaMount St. Mary’s13.8
Montana St.Northern Arizona6.7
NebraskaMinnesota7.3
New MexicoWyoming8.1
North CarolinaBoston College10.9
North Carolina CentralDelaware St.12.9
North Carolina St.Virginia Tech1.8
Oklahoma St.Oklahoma1.3
PittsburghGeorgia Tech7.5
RiceUTSA5.6
RiderMarist6.5
Seton HallDePaul7.5
South CarolinaMississippi-6.4
St. John’sButler3.2
SyracuseWake Forest-2.4
Texas A&M-CCNorthwestern St.1.3
UNLVAir Force5.3
UtahStanford1.8
VillanovaGeorgetown10.7
WashingtonColorado-4.7
Washington St.California13.6
West VirginiaTexas Tech2.9
Western KentuckyUTEP1.0
WisconsinOhio St.-1.4

Coming Later Today: Conference Tournament Schedules with TV & Updated Bracketology

February 12, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 12, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
CanisiusQuinnipiac-5.4
Cleveland St.Youngstown St.-1.8
EvansvilleMissouri St.-9.9
FairfieldMount St. Mary’s5.0
ManhattanSaint Peter’s1.6
MemphisTemple10.6
MinnesotaIowa-11.7
NiagaraIona-7.7
Northern KentuckyIUPUI17.6
NorthwesternPurdue-4.4
Ohio St.Michigan St.3.5
Purdue Fort WayneRobert Morris5.8
SienaMarist10.3
UNC GreensboroWofford9.0
Wichita St.SMU7.1

February 5, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, February 5, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
ColoradoStanford5.3
FairfieldIona-6.9
ManhattanRider-4.0
MaristCanisius0.5
MichiganOhio St.-0.1
NebraskaPenn St.-2.8
QuinnipiacMount St. Mary’s11.0
RichmondFordham3.0
Saint Joseph’sLa Salle5.8
Seton HallDePaul11.5
SienaNiagara7.4
Southern IllinoisMissouri St.3.8
TempleHouston-12.4
TulsaWichita St.-5.0
UtahCalifornia16.5
WisconsinNorthwestern2.2

February 1, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 2, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:14 pm
HomeVisitorSpread
Appalachian St.Marshall-4.4
ArizonaOregon9.0
Arizona St.Oregon St.13.2
Arkansas St.South Alabama-5.5
Austin PeayLiberty-14.4
BellarmineKennesaw St.-2.7
BYULoyola Marymount4.3
Cal St. BakersfieldUC Riverside-6.1
Cal St. FullertonLong Beach St.3.1
CharlotteFlorida Intl.10.9
ColoradoCalifornia15.7
DenverWestern Illinois-0.5
DetroitCleveland St.-0.1
DrexelCharleston-5.8
Eastern KentuckyJacksonville St.7.1
Florida Gulf CoastCentral Arkansas13.6
Georgia St.Georgia Southern1.1
GonzagaSanta Clara13.6
HamptonWilliam & Mary-1.6
HofstraTowson4.5
Houston ChristianNorthwestern St.-8.2
IUPUIMilwaukee-12.9
JacksonvilleNorth Florida7.4
LindenwoodEastern Illinois2.4
LipscombQueens3.6
LouisianaTexas St.8.6
Louisiana MonroeCoastal Carolina1.0
Louisiana TechRice4.3
McNeese St.Lamar8.1
MercerUNC Greensboro-2.7
MerrimackLong Island11.2
Middle TennesseeUTEP5.4
MonmouthDelaware-9.2
MontanaNorthern Colorado7.2
Montana St.Northern Arizona12.1
Morehead St.Tennessee Tech3.8
New OrleansTexas A&M-CC-7.2
Nicholls St.Texas A&M-Commerce6.0
NorthwesternMichigan5.3
OaklandPurdue Ft. Wayne-0.9
Ohio St.Wisconsin8.0
Old DominionJames Madison-3.8
OmahaSt. Thomas (MN)-2.7
PacificPepperdine1.7
Portland St.Idaho6.6
Robert MorrisNorthern Kentucky0.1
Sacramento St.Eastern Washington-0.4
Sacred HeartWagner-0.4
Saint Mary’sSan Francisco13.1
San DiegoPortland1.1
Southeastern LouisianaIncarnate Word8.6
SIU EdwardsvilleUT Martin4.2
South DakotaNorth Dakota St.0.2
South Dakota St.North Dakota10.5
Southeast Missouri St.Little Rock8.2
Southern IndianaTennessee St.6.9
St. Francis (NY)Central Connecticut St.-0.7
StetsonNorth Alabama7.1
Stonehill CollegeSt. Francis (PA)1.6
Stony BrookElon4.4
The CitadelVMI5.5
TroySouthern Miss.-0.1
UABFlorida Atlantic0.7
UC DavisHawaii0.8
UC San DiegoUC Irvine-9.0
UC Santa BarbaraCal Poly15.1
UCLAWashington17.2
UNC AshevilleHigh Point10.0
UNC WilmingtonNorth Carolina A&T9.3
USCWashington St.4.8
UtahStanford7.3
Utah TechUtah Valley-4.8
Western KentuckyUTSA11.6
Wichita St.Houston-13.6
Youngstown St.Wright St.7.0

January 24, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:00 am
HomeVisitorSpread
AkronMiami (O)13.8
ArkansasLSU12.4
Ball St.Buffalo4.6
Boise St.Fresno St.13.9
Central MichiganBowling Green0.4
ClemsonGeorgia Tech10.3
DrakeIndiana St.5.8
East CarolinaTulsa4.8
Florida St.Miami (Fla)-5.2
GeorgetownDePaul-1.9
IllinoisOhio St.2.2
Iowa St.Kansas St.5.2
La SalleDavidson-3.5
MississippiMissouri0.4
Missouri St.Illinois Chicago11.6
North Carolina St.Notre Dame12.4
Northern IllinoisKent St.-13.0
OhioWestern Michigan10.2
RutgersPenn St.6.1
San Jose St.Air Force3.1
Southern IllinoisMurray St.6.1
SyracuseNorth Carolina-3.5
TCUOklahoma7.0
TexasOklahoma St.7.5
ToledoEastern Michigan19.1
UNLVWyoming7.8
VanderbiltKentucky-2.5

January 23, 2023

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:15 am
Date1/23/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueAlabamaKansasHouston
2TennesseeTexasUCLAArizona
3Kansas St.Iowa St.VirginiaConnecticut
4GonzagaTCUXavierMarquette
5BaylorAuburnRutgersMiami (Fla)
6DukeSaint Mary’sSan Diego St.Providence
7North CarolinaIndianaNew MexicoIllinois
8North Carolina St.ArkansasFlorida AtlanticMichigan St.
9IowaBoise St.ClemsonCreighton
10Ohio St.MissouriWisconsinCharleston
11MemphisNorthwesternArizona St.West VirginiaMaryland
12Kent St.VCUOral RobertsPittsburghPenn St.
13LouisianaLibertySeattleBelmont
14UC Santa BarbaraSienaPrincetonColgate
15SamfordNorthern KentuckyUMass LowellEastern Washington
16UNC AshevilleUT-MartinSouthernNicholls St.Md. Eastern ShoreSt. Francis PA

Last 4 Byes: Wisconsin, Memphis, Northwestern, Arizona St.

Last 4 In: West Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Penn St.

First 4 Out: USC, Nevada, Utah St., Oklahoma St.

Next 4 Out: Kentucky, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

January 20, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Saturday, January 21, 2023

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:03 pm
HomeVisitorSpread
Abilene ChristianUT Arlington4.9
Air ForceSan Diego St-8.0
Alabama A&MTexas Southern-1.1
Alabama St.Prairie View A&M-1.7
Alcorn St.Florida A&M13.3
ArizonaUCLA-1.2
Arizona St.USC3.7
Arkansas Pine BluffSouthern U.-5.5
Arkansas St.Marshall-13.3
ArmyNavy2.3
Austin PeayEastern Kentucky-2.1
Boston U.Loyola (MD)7.4
Bowling GreenMiami (O)3.9
BradleyBelmont6.3
BrownColumbia12.9
BucknellHoly Cross7.9
Cal BaptistTarleton St.3.5
Cal St. NorthridgeCal St. Fullerton-6.2
Charleston SouthernCampbell1.2
ChattanoogaEast Tennessee St.10.0
ClemsonVirginia Tech2.3
Coastal CarolinaSouth Alabama-0.9
ColgateAmerican9.3
Coppin St.Norfolk St.-4.4
DrexelDelaware4.1
DukeMiami (Fla)4.7
DuquesneFordham6.9
Eastern MichiganNorthern Illinois0.2
ElonTowson-10.9
EvansvilleDrake-13.8
Florida Gulf CoastKennesaw St.3.1
Fresno St.UNLV-3.5
George WashingtonDayton-7.7
GeorgiaVanderbilt2.6
Georgia SouthernGeorgia St.2.2
Grand CanyonUtah Valley1.7
Green BayRobert Morris-8.3
HarvardCornell-2.0
Houston ChristianTexas A&M-CC-9.2
HowardMorgan St.0.0
Idaho St.Portland St.0.4
Illinois ChicagoNorthern Iowa-4.8
Illinois St.Valparaiso5.9
IUPUIDetroit-13.4
Jackson St.Bethune-Cookman7.6
JacksonvilleQueens3.6
KansasTCU7.3
Kansas St.Texas Tech4.8
KentuckyTexas A&M4.9
LamarIncarnate Word-0.2
LehighLafayette0.7
LindenwoodMorehead St.-2.4
LipscombBellarmine5.2
Little RockTennessee St.-0.8
Louisiana TechMiddle Tennessee2.7
Loyola (Chi)St. Bonaventure-2.3
LSUTennessee-12.8
McNeese St.Nicholls St.-3.8
MilwaukeeYoungstown St.-3.6
Mississippi St.Florida0.8
Mississippi Valley St.Grambling-10.2
MissouriAlabama-7.3
Missouri St.Southern Illinois1.6
MonmouthHampton0.7
MontanaMontana St.-0.6
Murray St.Indiana St.-1.2
New OrleansNorthwestern St.-5.4
North AlabamaCentral Arkansas5.4
North CarolinaNorth Carolina St.4.7
North Carolina CentralDelaware St.16.2
North DakotaOral Roberts-13.2
North Dakota St.UMKC3.2
North FloridaLiberty-10.4
NortheasternCharleston-8.8
Northern ArizonaEastern Washington-5.2
Northern ColoradoIdaho4.4
Northern KentuckyPurdue Ft. Wayne-0.2
NorthwesternWisconsin4.0
Notre DameBoston College5.9
OhioCentral Michigan10.4
Ohio St.Iowa3.0
OklahomaBaylor-1.2
Oklahoma St.Iowa St.-0.1
Old DominionAppalachian St.5.8
PacificGonzaga-16.6
Penn St.Nebraska8.0
PittsburghFlorida St.9.8
PortlandPepperdine3.5
PresbyterianLongwood-8.6
PrincetonDartmouth13.0
ProvidenceDePaul11.4
RadfordHigh Point9.1
Rhode IslandGeorge Mason-2.6
Saint Joseph’sMassachusetts0.9
Saint LouisLa Salle14.3
Saint Mary’sSanta Clara11.6
Sam Houston St.UT-Rio Grande Valley17.2
SamfordWestern Carolina8.1
San FranciscoBYU0.1
SeattleSouthern Utah1.3
Seton HallMarquette-1.3
SIU EdwardsvilleSouthern Indiana5.7
South CarolinaAuburn-14.9
South Carolina St.Maryland Eastern Shore-2.4
South DakotaOmaha3.2
South Dakota St.Denver9.3
South FloridaCentral Florida-5.5
Southeast MissouriTennessee Tech4.5
Southeastern LouisianaTexas A&M-Commerce3.5
Southern Miss.James Madison-1.3
StanfordOregon-1.7
StetsonJacksonville St.8.3
Stony BrookUNC Wilmington-6.7
Texas St.Louisiana-2.3
TroyLouisiana Monroe10.3
TulsaTulane-8.1
UABNorth Texas5.1
UC DavisCal Poly9.1
UC RiversideHawaii1.2
UC San DiegoLong Beach St.-3.9
UC Santa BarbaraCal St. Bakersfield14.4
UMBCNew Hampshire6.6
UNC AshevilleUSC Upstate8.7
UNC GreensboroMercer8.5
UT MartinEastern Illinois9.3
UtahWashington7.4
Utah St.San Jose St.13.2
Utah TechNew Mexico St.0.4
UTEPFlorida Atlantic-7.9
UTSAFlorida Intl.-1.4
VMIThe Citadel0.7
Wake ForestVirginia-2.9
Weber St.Sacramento St.2.6
West VirginiaTexas0.1
Western IllinoisSt. Thomas-0.6
Western KentuckyCharlotte-0.4
Western MichiganAkron-7.5
William & MaryNorth Carolina A&T1.2
WinthropGardner Webb-2.2
Wright St.Cleveland St.1.3
WyomingColorado St.0.1
XavierGeorgetown19.5
YalePenn7.3

PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:36 pm



Date1/20/2023
SeedTeamTeamTeamTeamTeamTeam
1PurdueHoustonKansasAlabama
2UCLATennesseeKansas St.Iowa St.
3TexasArizonaConnecticutGonzaga
4VirginiaXavierMarquetteBaylor
5TCUAuburnMiami (Fla)Rutgers
6San Diego St.DukeSaint Mary’sProvidence
7North Carolina St.ArkansasIllinoisMichigan St.
8New MexicoNorth CarolinaMissouriIowa
9IndianaBoise St.Arizona St.Creighton
10Florida AtlanticClemsonWisconsinWest Virginia
11CharlestonPittsburghMemphisMarylandNorthwestern
12Kent St.Oral RobertsDaytonOhio St.Penn St.
13SeattleMarshallSouthern IllinoisIona
14LibertyUC Santa BarbaraCornellColgate
15UMass LowellSamfordYoungstown St.Eastern Washington
16LongwoodSIU EdwardsvilleSouthernTexas A&M-CCMorgan St.Fairleigh Dickinson

Last 4 Byes: Wisconsin, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Memphis

Last 4 In: Maryland, Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St.

First 4 Out: Utah St., Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Next 4 Out: Nevada, Central Florida, USC, Seton Hall

Note: The last 4 teams in the field this week are all Big Ten teams. These would be First Four teams playing in Dayton, but the NCAA Selection Committee will not put four Big Ten teams in this round.

January 18, 2023

PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, January 18. 2023

HomeVisitorSpread
AmericanLafayette5.1
ArmyBucknell5.6
CaliforniaOregon-7.4
CampbellRadford-1.7
Central ArkansasNorth Alabama0.3
Charleston SouthernUNC Asheville-2.3
ChattanoogaFurman1.2
Colorado St.San Diego St-4.9
DePaulXavier-9.1
DrakeMissouri St.6.2
East Tennessee St.Samford-3.7
Grand CanyonUtah Tech10.9
High PointWinthrop1.3
Holy CrossColgate-12.4
Indiana St.Bradley0.1
LongwoodGardner Webb5.1
LouisvillePittsburgh-10.7
Loyola (Chi)Saint Louis-7.3
LSUAuburn-5.1
MarquetteProvidence5.7
MissouriArkansas-1.0
Morgan St.Hartford15.6
NavyBoston U.2.8
NebraskaOhio St.-5.5
Northern IowaIllinois St.6.5
Oklahoma St.Oklahoma2.7
Seton HallConnecticut-4.8
South FloridaCincinnati-3.9
St. BonaventureDuquesne-0.4
TempleEast Carolina7.7
Texas A&MFlorida2.0
TulsaSMU-1.4
UMass LowellUMBC5.9
USC UpstatePresbyterian5.5
Utah ValleyAbilene Christian9.1
VirginiaVirginia Tech6.4
West VirginiaTCU1.8
Western CarolinaWofford-0.7
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